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000
FXUS64 KLZK 281135 AAA
AFDLZK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR AVIATION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
630 AM CDT THU MAY 28 2015

.AVIATION...

AREAS OF IFR FOG AND LOW CLOUDS WILL BE SEEN OVER PARTS OF
NORTHERN...CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN AR THIS MORNING. THIS WILL AFFECT
TAF SITES KHRO...KLIT...KPBF...AND KLLQ. THE IFR AREAS WILL SLOWLY
THIN AND DISSIPATED THROUGH MID MORNING. THEN OVERALL VFR...WITH
PATCHY MVFR...FLIGHT CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THE REST OF THE DAY.
HIGH CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO FILTER IN OVER AR TODAY WITH CONVECTION
TO THE WEST OF AR. WINDS WILL BE SW TO SE AT 3 TO 7 MPH WHILE SOME
AREAS LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS WILL BE SEEN. WINDS WILL BECOME MORE
SE TO S AT 5 TO 10 MPH. ISOLATED TO AREAS OF SCATTERED CONVECTION
WILL DEVELOP OVER AR LATER THIS MORNING AND THIS AFTERNOON...BUT DUE
TO UNCERTAINTY...ONLY USED VCTS IN TAFS. (59)

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION.../ISSUED 622 AM CDT THU MAY 28 2015/

.UPDATE...
LINE OF CONVECTION DEVELOPING ACROSS FAR EASTERN OKLAHOMA...AND
MOVING NORTHEAST. HAVE INCREASED POPS ACROSS THE WEST THIS
MORNING...AND WILL SEE HOW FAR EAST THESE LINES MOVE INTO THE
STATE.
&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 426 AM CDT THU MAY 28 2015/

SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER OKLAHOMA MOVING EAST...BUT MOVING
INTO A LESS STABLE AIRMASS...AND EXPECTED TO WEAKEN BEFORE REACHING
THE STATE. HOWEVER...EXPECT A BOUNDARY TO MOVE INTO THE
REGION...WITH STORMS DEVELOPING LATER TODAY. HAVE KEPT POPS ONLY IN
THE CHANCE CATEGORY...WITH RAIN CHANCES IN EASTERN ARKANSAS
REMAINING ISOLATED.

THUNDERSTORMS WILL BECOME INCREASE FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT...AS
FIRST IN A SERIES OF UPPER WAVES MOVES INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS.
TIMING HAS SLOWED SOME FOR THE EASTWARD PUSH OF PRECIP...WITH THE
WIDESPREAD POPS HOLDING OFF UNTIL SATURDAY. WHILE EXPECTED
PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS ARE LESS THAN THE PREVIOUS SYSTEM...WILL STILL
HAVE TO WATCH FOR FLOODING ISSUES...ESPECIALLY WITH THE RECENT
RAINFALLS OF LATE. RAINFALL FORECAST FOR SUNDAY WILL BE
TRICKY...AS GFS TRIES TO CUT OFF LOW OVER THE REGION...WHILE OTHER
GUIDANCE KEEPS AN OPEN TROUGH.

LONG TERM...MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY

THE EXTENDED FORECAST WILL START WITH A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY OVER
SOUTHERN AR TO NORTHERN LA...WHILE MODELS SHOWING POTENTIAL CUT
OFF UPPER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM. THIS WOULD BRING CHANCES OF
CONVECTION TO AR...THE BEST IN THE EAST...WHILE A BIT LOWER IN THE
NW. ON TUESDAY...THE WEAK BOUNDARY IS EXPECTED TO WASH OUT...WHILE
MODELS CONTINUE TO HAVE THE UPPER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM EITHER A BIT
FARTHER EAST...PER EURO...OR A BIT FARTHER SOUTH...PER GFS. A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF CONVECTION WILL CONTINUE IN THE FORECAST DUE TO
THE PROXIMITY TO AR WHILE UNCERTAINTY DOES EXIST IN ITS EXACT
LOCATION. THE WEATHER PATTERN AND FORECAST FOR WEDNESDAY WILL
CONTINUE TO BE DEPENDENT ON THE UPPER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM. MODELS
HAVE IT MOVED A BIT FARTHER SOUTHEAST BUT SOME INFLUENCE WILL BE
SEEN OVER AR. HAVE KEPT A SLIGHT CHANCE OF CONVECTION OVER THE
AREA...BUT AS MENTIONED BEFORE...CONFIDENCE IS LOW. TEMPERATURES
WILL BE AROUND NORMAL TO A BIT BELOW NORMAL VALUES DUE TO THE
POTENTIAL OF RAIN AND CLOUDS.
&&

.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&

$$

58







000
FXUS64 KLZK 281135 AAA
AFDLZK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR AVIATION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
630 AM CDT THU MAY 28 2015

.AVIATION...

AREAS OF IFR FOG AND LOW CLOUDS WILL BE SEEN OVER PARTS OF
NORTHERN...CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN AR THIS MORNING. THIS WILL AFFECT
TAF SITES KHRO...KLIT...KPBF...AND KLLQ. THE IFR AREAS WILL SLOWLY
THIN AND DISSIPATED THROUGH MID MORNING. THEN OVERALL VFR...WITH
PATCHY MVFR...FLIGHT CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THE REST OF THE DAY.
HIGH CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO FILTER IN OVER AR TODAY WITH CONVECTION
TO THE WEST OF AR. WINDS WILL BE SW TO SE AT 3 TO 7 MPH WHILE SOME
AREAS LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS WILL BE SEEN. WINDS WILL BECOME MORE
SE TO S AT 5 TO 10 MPH. ISOLATED TO AREAS OF SCATTERED CONVECTION
WILL DEVELOP OVER AR LATER THIS MORNING AND THIS AFTERNOON...BUT DUE
TO UNCERTAINTY...ONLY USED VCTS IN TAFS. (59)

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION.../ISSUED 622 AM CDT THU MAY 28 2015/

.UPDATE...
LINE OF CONVECTION DEVELOPING ACROSS FAR EASTERN OKLAHOMA...AND
MOVING NORTHEAST. HAVE INCREASED POPS ACROSS THE WEST THIS
MORNING...AND WILL SEE HOW FAR EAST THESE LINES MOVE INTO THE
STATE.
&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 426 AM CDT THU MAY 28 2015/

SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER OKLAHOMA MOVING EAST...BUT MOVING
INTO A LESS STABLE AIRMASS...AND EXPECTED TO WEAKEN BEFORE REACHING
THE STATE. HOWEVER...EXPECT A BOUNDARY TO MOVE INTO THE
REGION...WITH STORMS DEVELOPING LATER TODAY. HAVE KEPT POPS ONLY IN
THE CHANCE CATEGORY...WITH RAIN CHANCES IN EASTERN ARKANSAS
REMAINING ISOLATED.

THUNDERSTORMS WILL BECOME INCREASE FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT...AS
FIRST IN A SERIES OF UPPER WAVES MOVES INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS.
TIMING HAS SLOWED SOME FOR THE EASTWARD PUSH OF PRECIP...WITH THE
WIDESPREAD POPS HOLDING OFF UNTIL SATURDAY. WHILE EXPECTED
PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS ARE LESS THAN THE PREVIOUS SYSTEM...WILL STILL
HAVE TO WATCH FOR FLOODING ISSUES...ESPECIALLY WITH THE RECENT
RAINFALLS OF LATE. RAINFALL FORECAST FOR SUNDAY WILL BE
TRICKY...AS GFS TRIES TO CUT OFF LOW OVER THE REGION...WHILE OTHER
GUIDANCE KEEPS AN OPEN TROUGH.

LONG TERM...MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY

THE EXTENDED FORECAST WILL START WITH A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY OVER
SOUTHERN AR TO NORTHERN LA...WHILE MODELS SHOWING POTENTIAL CUT
OFF UPPER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM. THIS WOULD BRING CHANCES OF
CONVECTION TO AR...THE BEST IN THE EAST...WHILE A BIT LOWER IN THE
NW. ON TUESDAY...THE WEAK BOUNDARY IS EXPECTED TO WASH OUT...WHILE
MODELS CONTINUE TO HAVE THE UPPER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM EITHER A BIT
FARTHER EAST...PER EURO...OR A BIT FARTHER SOUTH...PER GFS. A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF CONVECTION WILL CONTINUE IN THE FORECAST DUE TO
THE PROXIMITY TO AR WHILE UNCERTAINTY DOES EXIST IN ITS EXACT
LOCATION. THE WEATHER PATTERN AND FORECAST FOR WEDNESDAY WILL
CONTINUE TO BE DEPENDENT ON THE UPPER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM. MODELS
HAVE IT MOVED A BIT FARTHER SOUTHEAST BUT SOME INFLUENCE WILL BE
SEEN OVER AR. HAVE KEPT A SLIGHT CHANCE OF CONVECTION OVER THE
AREA...BUT AS MENTIONED BEFORE...CONFIDENCE IS LOW. TEMPERATURES
WILL BE AROUND NORMAL TO A BIT BELOW NORMAL VALUES DUE TO THE
POTENTIAL OF RAIN AND CLOUDS.
&&

.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&

$$

58








000
FXUS64 KLZK 281129 AAA
AFDLZK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATE FOR AVIATION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
630 AM CDT THU MAY 28 2015

.AVIATION...

AREAS OF IFR FOG AND LOW CLOUDS WILL BE SEEN OVER PARTS OF
NORTHERN...CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN AR THIS MORNING. THIS WILL AFFECT
TAF SITES KHRO...KLIT...KPBF...AND KLLQ. THE IFR AREAS WILL SLOWLY
THIN AND DISSIPATED THROUGH MID MORNING. THEN OVERALL VFR...WITH
PATCHY MVFR...FLIGHT CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THE REST OF THE DAY.
HIGH CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO FILTER IN OVER AR TODAY WITH CONVECTION
TO THE WEST OF AR. WINDS WILL BE SW TO SE AT 3 TO 7 MPH WHILE SOME
AREAS LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS WILL BE SEEN. WINDS WILL BECOME MORE
SE TO S AT 5 TO 10 MPH. ISOLATED TO AREAS OF SCATTERED CONVECTION
WILL DEVELOP OVER AR LATER THIS MORNING AND THIS AFTERNOON...BUT DUE
TO UNCERTAINTY...ONLY USED VCTS IN TAFS. (59)

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 426 AM CDT THU MAY 28 2015/

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER OKLAHOMA MOVING EAST...BUT MOVING
INTO A LESS STABLE AIRMASS...AND EXPECTED TO WEAKEN BEFORE REACHING
THE STATE. HOWEVER...EXPECT A BOUNDARY TO MOVE INTO THE
REGION...WITH STORMS DEVELOPING LATER TODAY. HAVE KEPT POPS ONLY IN
THE CHANCE CATEGORY...WITH RAIN CHANCES IN EASTERN ARKANSAS
REMAINING ISOLATED.

THUNDERSTORMS WILL BECOME INCREASE FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT...AS
FIRST IN A SERIES OF UPPER WAVES MOVES INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS.
TIMING HAS SLOWED SOME FOR THE EASTWARD PUSH OF PRECIP...WITH THE
WIDESPREAD POPS HOLDING OFF UNTIL SATURDAY. WHILE EXPECTED
PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS ARE LESS THAN THE PREVIOUS SYSTEM...WILL STILL
HAVE TO WATCH FOR FLOODING ISSUES...ESPECIALLY WITH THE RECENT
RAINFALLS OF LATE. RAINFALL FORECAST FOR SUNDAY WILL BE
TRICKY...AS GFS TRIES TO CUT OFF LOW OVER THE REGION...WHILE OTHER
GUIDANCE KEEPS AN OPEN TROUGH.
&&

.LONG TERM...MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY

THE EXTENDED FORECAST WILL START WITH A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY OVER
SOUTHERN AR TO NORTHERN LA...WHILE MODELS SHOWING POTENTIAL CUT
OFF UPPER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM. THIS WOULD BRING CHANCES OF
CONVECTION TO AR...THE BEST IN THE EAST...WHILE A BIT LOWER IN THE
NW. ON TUESDAY...THE WEAK BOUNDARY IS EXPECTED TO WASH OUT...WHILE
MODELS CONTINUE TO HAVE THE UPPER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM EITHER A BIT
FARTHER EAST...PER EURO...OR A BIT FARTHER SOUTH...PER GFS. A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF CONVECTION WILL CONTINUE IN THE FORECAST DUE TO
THE PROXIMITY TO AR WHILE UNCERTAINTY DOES EXIST IN ITS EXACT
LOCATION. THE WEATHER PATTERN AND FORECAST FOR WEDNESDAY WILL
CONTINUE TO BE DEPENDENT ON THE UPPER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM. MODELS
HAVE IT MOVED A BIT FARTHER SOUTHEAST BUT SOME INFLUENCE WILL BE
SEEN OVER AR. HAVE KEPT A SLIGHT CHANCE OF CONVECTION OVER THE
AREA...BUT AS MENTIONED BEFORE...CONFIDENCE IS LOW. TEMPERATURES
WILL BE AROUND NORMAL TO A BIT BELOW NORMAL VALUES DUE TO THE
POTENTIAL OF RAIN AND CLOUDS.
&&

.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...58 / LONG TERM...59







000
FXUS64 KLZK 281129 AAA
AFDLZK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATE FOR AVIATION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
630 AM CDT THU MAY 28 2015

.AVIATION...

AREAS OF IFR FOG AND LOW CLOUDS WILL BE SEEN OVER PARTS OF
NORTHERN...CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN AR THIS MORNING. THIS WILL AFFECT
TAF SITES KHRO...KLIT...KPBF...AND KLLQ. THE IFR AREAS WILL SLOWLY
THIN AND DISSIPATED THROUGH MID MORNING. THEN OVERALL VFR...WITH
PATCHY MVFR...FLIGHT CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THE REST OF THE DAY.
HIGH CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO FILTER IN OVER AR TODAY WITH CONVECTION
TO THE WEST OF AR. WINDS WILL BE SW TO SE AT 3 TO 7 MPH WHILE SOME
AREAS LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS WILL BE SEEN. WINDS WILL BECOME MORE
SE TO S AT 5 TO 10 MPH. ISOLATED TO AREAS OF SCATTERED CONVECTION
WILL DEVELOP OVER AR LATER THIS MORNING AND THIS AFTERNOON...BUT DUE
TO UNCERTAINTY...ONLY USED VCTS IN TAFS. (59)

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 426 AM CDT THU MAY 28 2015/

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER OKLAHOMA MOVING EAST...BUT MOVING
INTO A LESS STABLE AIRMASS...AND EXPECTED TO WEAKEN BEFORE REACHING
THE STATE. HOWEVER...EXPECT A BOUNDARY TO MOVE INTO THE
REGION...WITH STORMS DEVELOPING LATER TODAY. HAVE KEPT POPS ONLY IN
THE CHANCE CATEGORY...WITH RAIN CHANCES IN EASTERN ARKANSAS
REMAINING ISOLATED.

THUNDERSTORMS WILL BECOME INCREASE FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT...AS
FIRST IN A SERIES OF UPPER WAVES MOVES INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS.
TIMING HAS SLOWED SOME FOR THE EASTWARD PUSH OF PRECIP...WITH THE
WIDESPREAD POPS HOLDING OFF UNTIL SATURDAY. WHILE EXPECTED
PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS ARE LESS THAN THE PREVIOUS SYSTEM...WILL STILL
HAVE TO WATCH FOR FLOODING ISSUES...ESPECIALLY WITH THE RECENT
RAINFALLS OF LATE. RAINFALL FORECAST FOR SUNDAY WILL BE
TRICKY...AS GFS TRIES TO CUT OFF LOW OVER THE REGION...WHILE OTHER
GUIDANCE KEEPS AN OPEN TROUGH.
&&

.LONG TERM...MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY

THE EXTENDED FORECAST WILL START WITH A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY OVER
SOUTHERN AR TO NORTHERN LA...WHILE MODELS SHOWING POTENTIAL CUT
OFF UPPER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM. THIS WOULD BRING CHANCES OF
CONVECTION TO AR...THE BEST IN THE EAST...WHILE A BIT LOWER IN THE
NW. ON TUESDAY...THE WEAK BOUNDARY IS EXPECTED TO WASH OUT...WHILE
MODELS CONTINUE TO HAVE THE UPPER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM EITHER A BIT
FARTHER EAST...PER EURO...OR A BIT FARTHER SOUTH...PER GFS. A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF CONVECTION WILL CONTINUE IN THE FORECAST DUE TO
THE PROXIMITY TO AR WHILE UNCERTAINTY DOES EXIST IN ITS EXACT
LOCATION. THE WEATHER PATTERN AND FORECAST FOR WEDNESDAY WILL
CONTINUE TO BE DEPENDENT ON THE UPPER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM. MODELS
HAVE IT MOVED A BIT FARTHER SOUTHEAST BUT SOME INFLUENCE WILL BE
SEEN OVER AR. HAVE KEPT A SLIGHT CHANCE OF CONVECTION OVER THE
AREA...BUT AS MENTIONED BEFORE...CONFIDENCE IS LOW. TEMPERATURES
WILL BE AROUND NORMAL TO A BIT BELOW NORMAL VALUES DUE TO THE
POTENTIAL OF RAIN AND CLOUDS.
&&

.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...58 / LONG TERM...59








000
FXUS64 KLZK 281129 AAA
AFDLZK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATE FOR AVIATION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
630 AM CDT THU MAY 28 2015

.AVIATION...

AREAS OF IFR FOG AND LOW CLOUDS WILL BE SEEN OVER PARTS OF
NORTHERN...CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN AR THIS MORNING. THIS WILL AFFECT
TAF SITES KHRO...KLIT...KPBF...AND KLLQ. THE IFR AREAS WILL SLOWLY
THIN AND DISSIPATED THROUGH MID MORNING. THEN OVERALL VFR...WITH
PATCHY MVFR...FLIGHT CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THE REST OF THE DAY.
HIGH CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO FILTER IN OVER AR TODAY WITH CONVECTION
TO THE WEST OF AR. WINDS WILL BE SW TO SE AT 3 TO 7 MPH WHILE SOME
AREAS LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS WILL BE SEEN. WINDS WILL BECOME MORE
SE TO S AT 5 TO 10 MPH. ISOLATED TO AREAS OF SCATTERED CONVECTION
WILL DEVELOP OVER AR LATER THIS MORNING AND THIS AFTERNOON...BUT DUE
TO UNCERTAINTY...ONLY USED VCTS IN TAFS. (59)

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 426 AM CDT THU MAY 28 2015/

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER OKLAHOMA MOVING EAST...BUT MOVING
INTO A LESS STABLE AIRMASS...AND EXPECTED TO WEAKEN BEFORE REACHING
THE STATE. HOWEVER...EXPECT A BOUNDARY TO MOVE INTO THE
REGION...WITH STORMS DEVELOPING LATER TODAY. HAVE KEPT POPS ONLY IN
THE CHANCE CATEGORY...WITH RAIN CHANCES IN EASTERN ARKANSAS
REMAINING ISOLATED.

THUNDERSTORMS WILL BECOME INCREASE FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT...AS
FIRST IN A SERIES OF UPPER WAVES MOVES INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS.
TIMING HAS SLOWED SOME FOR THE EASTWARD PUSH OF PRECIP...WITH THE
WIDESPREAD POPS HOLDING OFF UNTIL SATURDAY. WHILE EXPECTED
PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS ARE LESS THAN THE PREVIOUS SYSTEM...WILL STILL
HAVE TO WATCH FOR FLOODING ISSUES...ESPECIALLY WITH THE RECENT
RAINFALLS OF LATE. RAINFALL FORECAST FOR SUNDAY WILL BE
TRICKY...AS GFS TRIES TO CUT OFF LOW OVER THE REGION...WHILE OTHER
GUIDANCE KEEPS AN OPEN TROUGH.
&&

.LONG TERM...MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY

THE EXTENDED FORECAST WILL START WITH A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY OVER
SOUTHERN AR TO NORTHERN LA...WHILE MODELS SHOWING POTENTIAL CUT
OFF UPPER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM. THIS WOULD BRING CHANCES OF
CONVECTION TO AR...THE BEST IN THE EAST...WHILE A BIT LOWER IN THE
NW. ON TUESDAY...THE WEAK BOUNDARY IS EXPECTED TO WASH OUT...WHILE
MODELS CONTINUE TO HAVE THE UPPER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM EITHER A BIT
FARTHER EAST...PER EURO...OR A BIT FARTHER SOUTH...PER GFS. A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF CONVECTION WILL CONTINUE IN THE FORECAST DUE TO
THE PROXIMITY TO AR WHILE UNCERTAINTY DOES EXIST IN ITS EXACT
LOCATION. THE WEATHER PATTERN AND FORECAST FOR WEDNESDAY WILL
CONTINUE TO BE DEPENDENT ON THE UPPER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM. MODELS
HAVE IT MOVED A BIT FARTHER SOUTHEAST BUT SOME INFLUENCE WILL BE
SEEN OVER AR. HAVE KEPT A SLIGHT CHANCE OF CONVECTION OVER THE
AREA...BUT AS MENTIONED BEFORE...CONFIDENCE IS LOW. TEMPERATURES
WILL BE AROUND NORMAL TO A BIT BELOW NORMAL VALUES DUE TO THE
POTENTIAL OF RAIN AND CLOUDS.
&&

.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...58 / LONG TERM...59







000
FXUS64 KLZK 281129 AAA
AFDLZK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATE FOR AVIATION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
630 AM CDT THU MAY 28 2015

.AVIATION...

AREAS OF IFR FOG AND LOW CLOUDS WILL BE SEEN OVER PARTS OF
NORTHERN...CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN AR THIS MORNING. THIS WILL AFFECT
TAF SITES KHRO...KLIT...KPBF...AND KLLQ. THE IFR AREAS WILL SLOWLY
THIN AND DISSIPATED THROUGH MID MORNING. THEN OVERALL VFR...WITH
PATCHY MVFR...FLIGHT CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THE REST OF THE DAY.
HIGH CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO FILTER IN OVER AR TODAY WITH CONVECTION
TO THE WEST OF AR. WINDS WILL BE SW TO SE AT 3 TO 7 MPH WHILE SOME
AREAS LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS WILL BE SEEN. WINDS WILL BECOME MORE
SE TO S AT 5 TO 10 MPH. ISOLATED TO AREAS OF SCATTERED CONVECTION
WILL DEVELOP OVER AR LATER THIS MORNING AND THIS AFTERNOON...BUT DUE
TO UNCERTAINTY...ONLY USED VCTS IN TAFS. (59)

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 426 AM CDT THU MAY 28 2015/

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER OKLAHOMA MOVING EAST...BUT MOVING
INTO A LESS STABLE AIRMASS...AND EXPECTED TO WEAKEN BEFORE REACHING
THE STATE. HOWEVER...EXPECT A BOUNDARY TO MOVE INTO THE
REGION...WITH STORMS DEVELOPING LATER TODAY. HAVE KEPT POPS ONLY IN
THE CHANCE CATEGORY...WITH RAIN CHANCES IN EASTERN ARKANSAS
REMAINING ISOLATED.

THUNDERSTORMS WILL BECOME INCREASE FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT...AS
FIRST IN A SERIES OF UPPER WAVES MOVES INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS.
TIMING HAS SLOWED SOME FOR THE EASTWARD PUSH OF PRECIP...WITH THE
WIDESPREAD POPS HOLDING OFF UNTIL SATURDAY. WHILE EXPECTED
PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS ARE LESS THAN THE PREVIOUS SYSTEM...WILL STILL
HAVE TO WATCH FOR FLOODING ISSUES...ESPECIALLY WITH THE RECENT
RAINFALLS OF LATE. RAINFALL FORECAST FOR SUNDAY WILL BE
TRICKY...AS GFS TRIES TO CUT OFF LOW OVER THE REGION...WHILE OTHER
GUIDANCE KEEPS AN OPEN TROUGH.
&&

.LONG TERM...MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY

THE EXTENDED FORECAST WILL START WITH A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY OVER
SOUTHERN AR TO NORTHERN LA...WHILE MODELS SHOWING POTENTIAL CUT
OFF UPPER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM. THIS WOULD BRING CHANCES OF
CONVECTION TO AR...THE BEST IN THE EAST...WHILE A BIT LOWER IN THE
NW. ON TUESDAY...THE WEAK BOUNDARY IS EXPECTED TO WASH OUT...WHILE
MODELS CONTINUE TO HAVE THE UPPER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM EITHER A BIT
FARTHER EAST...PER EURO...OR A BIT FARTHER SOUTH...PER GFS. A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF CONVECTION WILL CONTINUE IN THE FORECAST DUE TO
THE PROXIMITY TO AR WHILE UNCERTAINTY DOES EXIST IN ITS EXACT
LOCATION. THE WEATHER PATTERN AND FORECAST FOR WEDNESDAY WILL
CONTINUE TO BE DEPENDENT ON THE UPPER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM. MODELS
HAVE IT MOVED A BIT FARTHER SOUTHEAST BUT SOME INFLUENCE WILL BE
SEEN OVER AR. HAVE KEPT A SLIGHT CHANCE OF CONVECTION OVER THE
AREA...BUT AS MENTIONED BEFORE...CONFIDENCE IS LOW. TEMPERATURES
WILL BE AROUND NORMAL TO A BIT BELOW NORMAL VALUES DUE TO THE
POTENTIAL OF RAIN AND CLOUDS.
&&

.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...58 / LONG TERM...59








000
FXUS64 KLZK 281122 AAA
AFDLZK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
622 AM CDT THU MAY 28 2015

.UPDATE...
LINE OF CONVECTION DEVELOPING ACROSS FAR EASTERN OKLAHOMA...AND
MOVING NORTHEAST. HAVE INCREASED POPS ACROSS THE WEST THIS
MORNING...AND WILL SEE HOW FAR EAST THESE LINES MOVE INTO THE
STATE.
&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 426 AM CDT THU MAY 28 2015/

SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER OKLAHOMA MOVING EAST...BUT MOVING
INTO A LESS STABLE AIRMASS...AND EXPECTED TO WEAKEN BEFORE REACHING
THE STATE. HOWEVER...EXPECT A BOUNDARY TO MOVE INTO THE
REGION...WITH STORMS DEVELOPING LATER TODAY. HAVE KEPT POPS ONLY IN
THE CHANCE CATEGORY...WITH RAIN CHANCES IN EASTERN ARKANSAS
REMAINING ISOLATED.

THUNDERSTORMS WILL BECOME INCREASE FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT...AS
FIRST IN A SERIES OF UPPER WAVES MOVES INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS.
TIMING HAS SLOWED SOME FOR THE EASTWARD PUSH OF PRECIP...WITH THE
WIDESPREAD POPS HOLDING OFF UNTIL SATURDAY. WHILE EXPECTED
PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS ARE LESS THAN THE PREVIOUS SYSTEM...WILL STILL
HAVE TO WATCH FOR FLOODING ISSUES...ESPECIALLY WITH THE RECENT
RAINFALLS OF LATE. RAINFALL FORECAST FOR SUNDAY WILL BE
TRICKY...AS GFS TRIES TO CUT OFF LOW OVER THE REGION...WHILE OTHER
GUIDANCE KEEPS AN OPEN TROUGH.

LONG TERM...MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY

THE EXTENDED FORECAST WILL START WITH A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY OVER
SOUTHERN AR TO NORTHERN LA...WHILE MODELS SHOWING POTENTIAL CUT
OFF UPPER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM. THIS WOULD BRING CHANCES OF
CONVECTION TO AR...THE BEST IN THE EAST...WHILE A BIT LOWER IN THE
NW. ON TUESDAY...THE WEAK BOUNDARY IS EXPECTED TO WASH OUT...WHILE
MODELS CONTINUE TO HAVE THE UPPER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM EITHER A BIT
FARTHER EAST...PER EURO...OR A BIT FARTHER SOUTH...PER GFS. A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF CONVECTION WILL CONTINUE IN THE FORECAST DUE TO
THE PROXIMITY TO AR WHILE UNCERTAINTY DOES EXIST IN ITS EXACT
LOCATION. THE WEATHER PATTERN AND FORECAST FOR WEDNESDAY WILL
CONTINUE TO BE DEPENDENT ON THE UPPER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM. MODELS
HAVE IT MOVED A BIT FARTHER SOUTHEAST BUT SOME INFLUENCE WILL BE
SEEN OVER AR. HAVE KEPT A SLIGHT CHANCE OF CONVECTION OVER THE
AREA...BUT AS MENTIONED BEFORE...CONFIDENCE IS LOW. TEMPERATURES
WILL BE AROUND NORMAL TO A BIT BELOW NORMAL VALUES DUE TO THE
POTENTIAL OF RAIN AND CLOUDS.
&&

.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&

$$

58




000
FXUS64 KLZK 281122 AAA
AFDLZK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
622 AM CDT THU MAY 28 2015

.UPDATE...
LINE OF CONVECTION DEVELOPING ACROSS FAR EASTERN OKLAHOMA...AND
MOVING NORTHEAST. HAVE INCREASED POPS ACROSS THE WEST THIS
MORNING...AND WILL SEE HOW FAR EAST THESE LINES MOVE INTO THE
STATE.
&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 426 AM CDT THU MAY 28 2015/

SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER OKLAHOMA MOVING EAST...BUT MOVING
INTO A LESS STABLE AIRMASS...AND EXPECTED TO WEAKEN BEFORE REACHING
THE STATE. HOWEVER...EXPECT A BOUNDARY TO MOVE INTO THE
REGION...WITH STORMS DEVELOPING LATER TODAY. HAVE KEPT POPS ONLY IN
THE CHANCE CATEGORY...WITH RAIN CHANCES IN EASTERN ARKANSAS
REMAINING ISOLATED.

THUNDERSTORMS WILL BECOME INCREASE FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT...AS
FIRST IN A SERIES OF UPPER WAVES MOVES INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS.
TIMING HAS SLOWED SOME FOR THE EASTWARD PUSH OF PRECIP...WITH THE
WIDESPREAD POPS HOLDING OFF UNTIL SATURDAY. WHILE EXPECTED
PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS ARE LESS THAN THE PREVIOUS SYSTEM...WILL STILL
HAVE TO WATCH FOR FLOODING ISSUES...ESPECIALLY WITH THE RECENT
RAINFALLS OF LATE. RAINFALL FORECAST FOR SUNDAY WILL BE
TRICKY...AS GFS TRIES TO CUT OFF LOW OVER THE REGION...WHILE OTHER
GUIDANCE KEEPS AN OPEN TROUGH.

LONG TERM...MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY

THE EXTENDED FORECAST WILL START WITH A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY OVER
SOUTHERN AR TO NORTHERN LA...WHILE MODELS SHOWING POTENTIAL CUT
OFF UPPER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM. THIS WOULD BRING CHANCES OF
CONVECTION TO AR...THE BEST IN THE EAST...WHILE A BIT LOWER IN THE
NW. ON TUESDAY...THE WEAK BOUNDARY IS EXPECTED TO WASH OUT...WHILE
MODELS CONTINUE TO HAVE THE UPPER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM EITHER A BIT
FARTHER EAST...PER EURO...OR A BIT FARTHER SOUTH...PER GFS. A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF CONVECTION WILL CONTINUE IN THE FORECAST DUE TO
THE PROXIMITY TO AR WHILE UNCERTAINTY DOES EXIST IN ITS EXACT
LOCATION. THE WEATHER PATTERN AND FORECAST FOR WEDNESDAY WILL
CONTINUE TO BE DEPENDENT ON THE UPPER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM. MODELS
HAVE IT MOVED A BIT FARTHER SOUTHEAST BUT SOME INFLUENCE WILL BE
SEEN OVER AR. HAVE KEPT A SLIGHT CHANCE OF CONVECTION OVER THE
AREA...BUT AS MENTIONED BEFORE...CONFIDENCE IS LOW. TEMPERATURES
WILL BE AROUND NORMAL TO A BIT BELOW NORMAL VALUES DUE TO THE
POTENTIAL OF RAIN AND CLOUDS.
&&

.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&

$$

58




000
FXUS64 KLZK 281122 AAA
AFDLZK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
622 AM CDT THU MAY 28 2015

.UPDATE...
LINE OF CONVECTION DEVELOPING ACROSS FAR EASTERN OKLAHOMA...AND
MOVING NORTHEAST. HAVE INCREASED POPS ACROSS THE WEST THIS
MORNING...AND WILL SEE HOW FAR EAST THESE LINES MOVE INTO THE
STATE.
&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 426 AM CDT THU MAY 28 2015/

SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER OKLAHOMA MOVING EAST...BUT MOVING
INTO A LESS STABLE AIRMASS...AND EXPECTED TO WEAKEN BEFORE REACHING
THE STATE. HOWEVER...EXPECT A BOUNDARY TO MOVE INTO THE
REGION...WITH STORMS DEVELOPING LATER TODAY. HAVE KEPT POPS ONLY IN
THE CHANCE CATEGORY...WITH RAIN CHANCES IN EASTERN ARKANSAS
REMAINING ISOLATED.

THUNDERSTORMS WILL BECOME INCREASE FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT...AS
FIRST IN A SERIES OF UPPER WAVES MOVES INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS.
TIMING HAS SLOWED SOME FOR THE EASTWARD PUSH OF PRECIP...WITH THE
WIDESPREAD POPS HOLDING OFF UNTIL SATURDAY. WHILE EXPECTED
PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS ARE LESS THAN THE PREVIOUS SYSTEM...WILL STILL
HAVE TO WATCH FOR FLOODING ISSUES...ESPECIALLY WITH THE RECENT
RAINFALLS OF LATE. RAINFALL FORECAST FOR SUNDAY WILL BE
TRICKY...AS GFS TRIES TO CUT OFF LOW OVER THE REGION...WHILE OTHER
GUIDANCE KEEPS AN OPEN TROUGH.

LONG TERM...MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY

THE EXTENDED FORECAST WILL START WITH A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY OVER
SOUTHERN AR TO NORTHERN LA...WHILE MODELS SHOWING POTENTIAL CUT
OFF UPPER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM. THIS WOULD BRING CHANCES OF
CONVECTION TO AR...THE BEST IN THE EAST...WHILE A BIT LOWER IN THE
NW. ON TUESDAY...THE WEAK BOUNDARY IS EXPECTED TO WASH OUT...WHILE
MODELS CONTINUE TO HAVE THE UPPER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM EITHER A BIT
FARTHER EAST...PER EURO...OR A BIT FARTHER SOUTH...PER GFS. A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF CONVECTION WILL CONTINUE IN THE FORECAST DUE TO
THE PROXIMITY TO AR WHILE UNCERTAINTY DOES EXIST IN ITS EXACT
LOCATION. THE WEATHER PATTERN AND FORECAST FOR WEDNESDAY WILL
CONTINUE TO BE DEPENDENT ON THE UPPER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM. MODELS
HAVE IT MOVED A BIT FARTHER SOUTHEAST BUT SOME INFLUENCE WILL BE
SEEN OVER AR. HAVE KEPT A SLIGHT CHANCE OF CONVECTION OVER THE
AREA...BUT AS MENTIONED BEFORE...CONFIDENCE IS LOW. TEMPERATURES
WILL BE AROUND NORMAL TO A BIT BELOW NORMAL VALUES DUE TO THE
POTENTIAL OF RAIN AND CLOUDS.
&&

.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&

$$

58




000
FXUS64 KLZK 281122 AAA
AFDLZK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
622 AM CDT THU MAY 28 2015

.UPDATE...
LINE OF CONVECTION DEVELOPING ACROSS FAR EASTERN OKLAHOMA...AND
MOVING NORTHEAST. HAVE INCREASED POPS ACROSS THE WEST THIS
MORNING...AND WILL SEE HOW FAR EAST THESE LINES MOVE INTO THE
STATE.
&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 426 AM CDT THU MAY 28 2015/

SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER OKLAHOMA MOVING EAST...BUT MOVING
INTO A LESS STABLE AIRMASS...AND EXPECTED TO WEAKEN BEFORE REACHING
THE STATE. HOWEVER...EXPECT A BOUNDARY TO MOVE INTO THE
REGION...WITH STORMS DEVELOPING LATER TODAY. HAVE KEPT POPS ONLY IN
THE CHANCE CATEGORY...WITH RAIN CHANCES IN EASTERN ARKANSAS
REMAINING ISOLATED.

THUNDERSTORMS WILL BECOME INCREASE FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT...AS
FIRST IN A SERIES OF UPPER WAVES MOVES INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS.
TIMING HAS SLOWED SOME FOR THE EASTWARD PUSH OF PRECIP...WITH THE
WIDESPREAD POPS HOLDING OFF UNTIL SATURDAY. WHILE EXPECTED
PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS ARE LESS THAN THE PREVIOUS SYSTEM...WILL STILL
HAVE TO WATCH FOR FLOODING ISSUES...ESPECIALLY WITH THE RECENT
RAINFALLS OF LATE. RAINFALL FORECAST FOR SUNDAY WILL BE
TRICKY...AS GFS TRIES TO CUT OFF LOW OVER THE REGION...WHILE OTHER
GUIDANCE KEEPS AN OPEN TROUGH.

LONG TERM...MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY

THE EXTENDED FORECAST WILL START WITH A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY OVER
SOUTHERN AR TO NORTHERN LA...WHILE MODELS SHOWING POTENTIAL CUT
OFF UPPER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM. THIS WOULD BRING CHANCES OF
CONVECTION TO AR...THE BEST IN THE EAST...WHILE A BIT LOWER IN THE
NW. ON TUESDAY...THE WEAK BOUNDARY IS EXPECTED TO WASH OUT...WHILE
MODELS CONTINUE TO HAVE THE UPPER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM EITHER A BIT
FARTHER EAST...PER EURO...OR A BIT FARTHER SOUTH...PER GFS. A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF CONVECTION WILL CONTINUE IN THE FORECAST DUE TO
THE PROXIMITY TO AR WHILE UNCERTAINTY DOES EXIST IN ITS EXACT
LOCATION. THE WEATHER PATTERN AND FORECAST FOR WEDNESDAY WILL
CONTINUE TO BE DEPENDENT ON THE UPPER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM. MODELS
HAVE IT MOVED A BIT FARTHER SOUTHEAST BUT SOME INFLUENCE WILL BE
SEEN OVER AR. HAVE KEPT A SLIGHT CHANCE OF CONVECTION OVER THE
AREA...BUT AS MENTIONED BEFORE...CONFIDENCE IS LOW. TEMPERATURES
WILL BE AROUND NORMAL TO A BIT BELOW NORMAL VALUES DUE TO THE
POTENTIAL OF RAIN AND CLOUDS.
&&

.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&

$$

58




000
FXUS64 KLZK 281122 AAA
AFDLZK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
622 AM CDT THU MAY 28 2015

.UPDATE...
LINE OF CONVECTION DEVELOPING ACROSS FAR EASTERN OKLAHOMA...AND
MOVING NORTHEAST. HAVE INCREASED POPS ACROSS THE WEST THIS
MORNING...AND WILL SEE HOW FAR EAST THESE LINES MOVE INTO THE
STATE.
&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 426 AM CDT THU MAY 28 2015/

SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER OKLAHOMA MOVING EAST...BUT MOVING
INTO A LESS STABLE AIRMASS...AND EXPECTED TO WEAKEN BEFORE REACHING
THE STATE. HOWEVER...EXPECT A BOUNDARY TO MOVE INTO THE
REGION...WITH STORMS DEVELOPING LATER TODAY. HAVE KEPT POPS ONLY IN
THE CHANCE CATEGORY...WITH RAIN CHANCES IN EASTERN ARKANSAS
REMAINING ISOLATED.

THUNDERSTORMS WILL BECOME INCREASE FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT...AS
FIRST IN A SERIES OF UPPER WAVES MOVES INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS.
TIMING HAS SLOWED SOME FOR THE EASTWARD PUSH OF PRECIP...WITH THE
WIDESPREAD POPS HOLDING OFF UNTIL SATURDAY. WHILE EXPECTED
PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS ARE LESS THAN THE PREVIOUS SYSTEM...WILL STILL
HAVE TO WATCH FOR FLOODING ISSUES...ESPECIALLY WITH THE RECENT
RAINFALLS OF LATE. RAINFALL FORECAST FOR SUNDAY WILL BE
TRICKY...AS GFS TRIES TO CUT OFF LOW OVER THE REGION...WHILE OTHER
GUIDANCE KEEPS AN OPEN TROUGH.

LONG TERM...MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY

THE EXTENDED FORECAST WILL START WITH A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY OVER
SOUTHERN AR TO NORTHERN LA...WHILE MODELS SHOWING POTENTIAL CUT
OFF UPPER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM. THIS WOULD BRING CHANCES OF
CONVECTION TO AR...THE BEST IN THE EAST...WHILE A BIT LOWER IN THE
NW. ON TUESDAY...THE WEAK BOUNDARY IS EXPECTED TO WASH OUT...WHILE
MODELS CONTINUE TO HAVE THE UPPER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM EITHER A BIT
FARTHER EAST...PER EURO...OR A BIT FARTHER SOUTH...PER GFS. A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF CONVECTION WILL CONTINUE IN THE FORECAST DUE TO
THE PROXIMITY TO AR WHILE UNCERTAINTY DOES EXIST IN ITS EXACT
LOCATION. THE WEATHER PATTERN AND FORECAST FOR WEDNESDAY WILL
CONTINUE TO BE DEPENDENT ON THE UPPER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM. MODELS
HAVE IT MOVED A BIT FARTHER SOUTHEAST BUT SOME INFLUENCE WILL BE
SEEN OVER AR. HAVE KEPT A SLIGHT CHANCE OF CONVECTION OVER THE
AREA...BUT AS MENTIONED BEFORE...CONFIDENCE IS LOW. TEMPERATURES
WILL BE AROUND NORMAL TO A BIT BELOW NORMAL VALUES DUE TO THE
POTENTIAL OF RAIN AND CLOUDS.
&&

.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&

$$

58





000
FXUS64 KLZK 280926
AFDLZK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
426 AM CDT THU MAY 28 2015

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER OKLAHOMA MOVING EAST...BUT MOVING
INTO A LESS STABLE AIRMASS...AND EXPECTED TO WEAKEN BEFORE REACHING
THE STATE. HOWEVER...EXPECT A BOUNDARY TO MOVE INTO THE
REGION...WITH STORMS DEVELOPING LATER TODAY. HAVE KEPT POPS ONLY IN
THE CHANCE CATEGORY...WITH RAIN CHANCES IN EASTERN ARKANSAS
REMAINING ISOLATED.

THUNDERSTORMS WILL BECOME INCREASE FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT...AS
FIRST IN A SERIES OF UPPER WAVES MOVES INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS.
TIMING HAS SLOWED SOME FOR THE EASTWARD PUSH OF PRECIP...WITH THE
WIDESPREAD POPS HOLDING OFF UNTIL SATURDAY. WHILE EXPECTED
PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS ARE LESS THAN THE PREVIOUS SYSTEM...WILL STILL
HAVE TO WATCH FOR FLOODING ISSUES...ESPECIALLY WITH THE RECENT
RAINFALLS OF LATE. RAINFALL FORECAST FOR SUNDAY WILL BE
TRICKY...AS GFS TRIES TO CUT OFF LOW OVER THE REGION...WHILE OTHER
GUIDANCE KEEPS AN OPEN TROUGH.
&&

.LONG TERM...MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY

THE EXTENDED FORECAST WILL START WITH A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY OVER
SOUTHERN AR TO NORTHERN LA...WHILE MODELS SHOWING POTENTIAL CUT
OFF UPPER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM. THIS WOULD BRING CHANCES OF
CONVECTION TO AR...THE BEST IN THE EAST...WHILE A BIT LOWER IN THE
NW. ON TUESDAY...THE WEAK BOUNDARY IS EXPECTED TO WASH OUT...WHILE
MODELS CONTINUE TO HAVE THE UPPER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM EITHER A BIT
FARTHER EAST...PER EURO...OR A BIT FARTHER SOUTH...PER GFS. A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF CONVECTION WILL CONTINUE IN THE FORECAST DUE TO
THE PROXIMITY TO AR WHILE UNCERTAINTY DOES EXIST IN ITS EXACT
LOCATION. THE WEATHER PATTERN AND FORECAST FOR WEDNESDAY WILL
CONTINUE TO BE DEPENDENT ON THE UPPER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM. MODELS
HAVE IT MOVED A BIT FARTHER SOUTHEAST BUT SOME INFLUENCE WILL BE
SEEN OVER AR. HAVE KEPT A SLIGHT CHANCE OF CONVECTION OVER THE
AREA...BUT AS MENTIONED BEFORE...CONFIDENCE IS LOW. TEMPERATURES
WILL BE AROUND NORMAL TO A BIT BELOW NORMAL VALUES DUE TO THE
POTENTIAL OF RAIN AND CLOUDS.
&&

.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...58 / LONG TERM...59





000
FXUS64 KLZK 280926
AFDLZK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
426 AM CDT THU MAY 28 2015

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER OKLAHOMA MOVING EAST...BUT MOVING
INTO A LESS STABLE AIRMASS...AND EXPECTED TO WEAKEN BEFORE REACHING
THE STATE. HOWEVER...EXPECT A BOUNDARY TO MOVE INTO THE
REGION...WITH STORMS DEVELOPING LATER TODAY. HAVE KEPT POPS ONLY IN
THE CHANCE CATEGORY...WITH RAIN CHANCES IN EASTERN ARKANSAS
REMAINING ISOLATED.

THUNDERSTORMS WILL BECOME INCREASE FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT...AS
FIRST IN A SERIES OF UPPER WAVES MOVES INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS.
TIMING HAS SLOWED SOME FOR THE EASTWARD PUSH OF PRECIP...WITH THE
WIDESPREAD POPS HOLDING OFF UNTIL SATURDAY. WHILE EXPECTED
PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS ARE LESS THAN THE PREVIOUS SYSTEM...WILL STILL
HAVE TO WATCH FOR FLOODING ISSUES...ESPECIALLY WITH THE RECENT
RAINFALLS OF LATE. RAINFALL FORECAST FOR SUNDAY WILL BE
TRICKY...AS GFS TRIES TO CUT OFF LOW OVER THE REGION...WHILE OTHER
GUIDANCE KEEPS AN OPEN TROUGH.
&&

.LONG TERM...MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY

THE EXTENDED FORECAST WILL START WITH A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY OVER
SOUTHERN AR TO NORTHERN LA...WHILE MODELS SHOWING POTENTIAL CUT
OFF UPPER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM. THIS WOULD BRING CHANCES OF
CONVECTION TO AR...THE BEST IN THE EAST...WHILE A BIT LOWER IN THE
NW. ON TUESDAY...THE WEAK BOUNDARY IS EXPECTED TO WASH OUT...WHILE
MODELS CONTINUE TO HAVE THE UPPER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM EITHER A BIT
FARTHER EAST...PER EURO...OR A BIT FARTHER SOUTH...PER GFS. A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF CONVECTION WILL CONTINUE IN THE FORECAST DUE TO
THE PROXIMITY TO AR WHILE UNCERTAINTY DOES EXIST IN ITS EXACT
LOCATION. THE WEATHER PATTERN AND FORECAST FOR WEDNESDAY WILL
CONTINUE TO BE DEPENDENT ON THE UPPER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM. MODELS
HAVE IT MOVED A BIT FARTHER SOUTHEAST BUT SOME INFLUENCE WILL BE
SEEN OVER AR. HAVE KEPT A SLIGHT CHANCE OF CONVECTION OVER THE
AREA...BUT AS MENTIONED BEFORE...CONFIDENCE IS LOW. TEMPERATURES
WILL BE AROUND NORMAL TO A BIT BELOW NORMAL VALUES DUE TO THE
POTENTIAL OF RAIN AND CLOUDS.
&&

.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...58 / LONG TERM...59




000
FXUS64 KLZK 280926
AFDLZK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
426 AM CDT THU MAY 28 2015

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER OKLAHOMA MOVING EAST...BUT MOVING
INTO A LESS STABLE AIRMASS...AND EXPECTED TO WEAKEN BEFORE REACHING
THE STATE. HOWEVER...EXPECT A BOUNDARY TO MOVE INTO THE
REGION...WITH STORMS DEVELOPING LATER TODAY. HAVE KEPT POPS ONLY IN
THE CHANCE CATEGORY...WITH RAIN CHANCES IN EASTERN ARKANSAS
REMAINING ISOLATED.

THUNDERSTORMS WILL BECOME INCREASE FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT...AS
FIRST IN A SERIES OF UPPER WAVES MOVES INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS.
TIMING HAS SLOWED SOME FOR THE EASTWARD PUSH OF PRECIP...WITH THE
WIDESPREAD POPS HOLDING OFF UNTIL SATURDAY. WHILE EXPECTED
PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS ARE LESS THAN THE PREVIOUS SYSTEM...WILL STILL
HAVE TO WATCH FOR FLOODING ISSUES...ESPECIALLY WITH THE RECENT
RAINFALLS OF LATE. RAINFALL FORECAST FOR SUNDAY WILL BE
TRICKY...AS GFS TRIES TO CUT OFF LOW OVER THE REGION...WHILE OTHER
GUIDANCE KEEPS AN OPEN TROUGH.
&&

.LONG TERM...MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY

THE EXTENDED FORECAST WILL START WITH A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY OVER
SOUTHERN AR TO NORTHERN LA...WHILE MODELS SHOWING POTENTIAL CUT
OFF UPPER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM. THIS WOULD BRING CHANCES OF
CONVECTION TO AR...THE BEST IN THE EAST...WHILE A BIT LOWER IN THE
NW. ON TUESDAY...THE WEAK BOUNDARY IS EXPECTED TO WASH OUT...WHILE
MODELS CONTINUE TO HAVE THE UPPER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM EITHER A BIT
FARTHER EAST...PER EURO...OR A BIT FARTHER SOUTH...PER GFS. A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF CONVECTION WILL CONTINUE IN THE FORECAST DUE TO
THE PROXIMITY TO AR WHILE UNCERTAINTY DOES EXIST IN ITS EXACT
LOCATION. THE WEATHER PATTERN AND FORECAST FOR WEDNESDAY WILL
CONTINUE TO BE DEPENDENT ON THE UPPER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM. MODELS
HAVE IT MOVED A BIT FARTHER SOUTHEAST BUT SOME INFLUENCE WILL BE
SEEN OVER AR. HAVE KEPT A SLIGHT CHANCE OF CONVECTION OVER THE
AREA...BUT AS MENTIONED BEFORE...CONFIDENCE IS LOW. TEMPERATURES
WILL BE AROUND NORMAL TO A BIT BELOW NORMAL VALUES DUE TO THE
POTENTIAL OF RAIN AND CLOUDS.
&&

.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...58 / LONG TERM...59





000
FXUS64 KLZK 280926
AFDLZK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
426 AM CDT THU MAY 28 2015

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER OKLAHOMA MOVING EAST...BUT MOVING
INTO A LESS STABLE AIRMASS...AND EXPECTED TO WEAKEN BEFORE REACHING
THE STATE. HOWEVER...EXPECT A BOUNDARY TO MOVE INTO THE
REGION...WITH STORMS DEVELOPING LATER TODAY. HAVE KEPT POPS ONLY IN
THE CHANCE CATEGORY...WITH RAIN CHANCES IN EASTERN ARKANSAS
REMAINING ISOLATED.

THUNDERSTORMS WILL BECOME INCREASE FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT...AS
FIRST IN A SERIES OF UPPER WAVES MOVES INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS.
TIMING HAS SLOWED SOME FOR THE EASTWARD PUSH OF PRECIP...WITH THE
WIDESPREAD POPS HOLDING OFF UNTIL SATURDAY. WHILE EXPECTED
PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS ARE LESS THAN THE PREVIOUS SYSTEM...WILL STILL
HAVE TO WATCH FOR FLOODING ISSUES...ESPECIALLY WITH THE RECENT
RAINFALLS OF LATE. RAINFALL FORECAST FOR SUNDAY WILL BE
TRICKY...AS GFS TRIES TO CUT OFF LOW OVER THE REGION...WHILE OTHER
GUIDANCE KEEPS AN OPEN TROUGH.
&&

.LONG TERM...MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY

THE EXTENDED FORECAST WILL START WITH A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY OVER
SOUTHERN AR TO NORTHERN LA...WHILE MODELS SHOWING POTENTIAL CUT
OFF UPPER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM. THIS WOULD BRING CHANCES OF
CONVECTION TO AR...THE BEST IN THE EAST...WHILE A BIT LOWER IN THE
NW. ON TUESDAY...THE WEAK BOUNDARY IS EXPECTED TO WASH OUT...WHILE
MODELS CONTINUE TO HAVE THE UPPER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM EITHER A BIT
FARTHER EAST...PER EURO...OR A BIT FARTHER SOUTH...PER GFS. A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF CONVECTION WILL CONTINUE IN THE FORECAST DUE TO
THE PROXIMITY TO AR WHILE UNCERTAINTY DOES EXIST IN ITS EXACT
LOCATION. THE WEATHER PATTERN AND FORECAST FOR WEDNESDAY WILL
CONTINUE TO BE DEPENDENT ON THE UPPER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM. MODELS
HAVE IT MOVED A BIT FARTHER SOUTHEAST BUT SOME INFLUENCE WILL BE
SEEN OVER AR. HAVE KEPT A SLIGHT CHANCE OF CONVECTION OVER THE
AREA...BUT AS MENTIONED BEFORE...CONFIDENCE IS LOW. TEMPERATURES
WILL BE AROUND NORMAL TO A BIT BELOW NORMAL VALUES DUE TO THE
POTENTIAL OF RAIN AND CLOUDS.
&&

.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...58 / LONG TERM...59




000
FXUS64 KLZK 280544 AAA
AFDLZK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR AVIATION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
1245 AM CDT THU MAY 28 2015

.AVIATION...

OVERALL VFR FLIGHT CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED OVERNIGHT WITH HIGH
CLOUDS STREAMING IN OVER THE AREA FROM THE WEST. ONLY PATCHY MVFR
WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH SOME STRATUS AND FOG. SPOTTY IFR MAY BE SEEN
WITH FOG AND LOW CLOUDS. WINDS WILL BE E TO SE AT 3 TO 7 MPH WHILE
SOME AREAS LIGHT AND VARIABLE. ON THURSDAY...VFR CONDITIONS CONTINUE
WITH PATCHY MVFR CEILINGS IN THE MORNING. THURSDAY AFTERNOON
ISOLATED CONVECTION OVER AR WILL BE POSSIBLE. (59)

&&

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT

ALL SHORT TERM MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT THE GENERALLY UNSETTLED
PATTERN OF LATE WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE PERIOD. AS SUCH...WILL
SIMPLY BLEND FORECAST SOLUTIONS THIS AFTERNOON.

SCATTERED CONVECTION STATING TO POP IN THE HEAT OF THE DAY AND WILL
LIKELY INCREASE IN COVERAGE THIS EVENING. EARLIER STORMS OVER THE
SOUTHEAST AND THE FEW STORMS THAT HAVE DEVELOPED AT THIS TIME HAVE
BEEN VERY EFFICIENT RAIN MAKERS PRODUCING LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN.
AIRMASS REMAINS VERY MOIST WITH PWATS JUST UNDER 1.5 INCHES BUT
EXPECTED TO CLIMB TO IN EXCESS OF 1.75 INCHES BY THE END OF THE
PERIOD.

SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT AND SOUTHEAST SURFACE FLOW WILL KEEPING MOIST
AIR IN PLACE THROUGHOUT PERIOD AS UPPER TROUGH OVER THE WESTERN
UNITED STATES AT THIS MOMENT...MAKES AN EASTWARD PUSH. TROUGH WILL
ONLY REACH THE CENTRAL PLAINS BY THE END OF THE PERIOD WITH
ASSOCIATED FRONT FINALLY PUSHING THROUGH IN THE SATURDAY NIGHT TO
EARLY SUNDAY MORNING TIME FRAME.

SEVERAL UPPER LEVEL IMPULSES WILL MOVE THROUGH THE PREVAILING FLOW
WITH A CONTINUING CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION ESPECIALLY DURING THE LATE
AFTERNOON TO EARLY EVENING HOURS. BEST CHANCES ACTUALLY LOOK TO BE
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY WHEN THE STRONGEST OF THE WAVES MOVES THROUGH
ACCOMPANIED BY A SURGE IN MOISTURE. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN A FEW
DEGREES BELOW NORMAL THANKS TO THE CLOUDS AND PRECIPITATION IN THE
AREA AND WILL GO A TITLE BELOW GUIDANCE.
&&

.LONG TERM...SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY

ZONAL UPPER FLOW IS FORECAST TO EXIST ACROSS THE LOWER 48 DURING THE
LONG TERM. LOCALLY AN UPPER TROUGH WILL RESIDE OVER ARKANSAS TO
BEGIN THE PERIOD AND WILL LIKELY MOVE VERY LITTLE THROUGH EARLY NEXT
WEEK AS IT BECOMES CUTOFF FROM THE MAIN FLOW ACROSS THE NRN TIER
STATES. WITH A TROUGH/CUTOFF LOW ATOP ARKANSAS AND A MOIST AIR MASS
AT THE SURFACE...AT LEAST A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL
EXIST EACH DAY. TEMPERATURES WILL START THE PERIOD AROUND OR
SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL...BUT MID TO UPPER 80S WILL CREEP BACK INTO
THE FORECAST TOWARDS MIDWEEK.
&&

.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...56 / LONG TERM...64















000
FXUS64 KLZK 280544 AAA
AFDLZK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR AVIATION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
1245 AM CDT THU MAY 28 2015

.AVIATION...

OVERALL VFR FLIGHT CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED OVERNIGHT WITH HIGH
CLOUDS STREAMING IN OVER THE AREA FROM THE WEST. ONLY PATCHY MVFR
WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH SOME STRATUS AND FOG. SPOTTY IFR MAY BE SEEN
WITH FOG AND LOW CLOUDS. WINDS WILL BE E TO SE AT 3 TO 7 MPH WHILE
SOME AREAS LIGHT AND VARIABLE. ON THURSDAY...VFR CONDITIONS CONTINUE
WITH PATCHY MVFR CEILINGS IN THE MORNING. THURSDAY AFTERNOON
ISOLATED CONVECTION OVER AR WILL BE POSSIBLE. (59)

&&

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT

ALL SHORT TERM MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT THE GENERALLY UNSETTLED
PATTERN OF LATE WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE PERIOD. AS SUCH...WILL
SIMPLY BLEND FORECAST SOLUTIONS THIS AFTERNOON.

SCATTERED CONVECTION STATING TO POP IN THE HEAT OF THE DAY AND WILL
LIKELY INCREASE IN COVERAGE THIS EVENING. EARLIER STORMS OVER THE
SOUTHEAST AND THE FEW STORMS THAT HAVE DEVELOPED AT THIS TIME HAVE
BEEN VERY EFFICIENT RAIN MAKERS PRODUCING LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN.
AIRMASS REMAINS VERY MOIST WITH PWATS JUST UNDER 1.5 INCHES BUT
EXPECTED TO CLIMB TO IN EXCESS OF 1.75 INCHES BY THE END OF THE
PERIOD.

SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT AND SOUTHEAST SURFACE FLOW WILL KEEPING MOIST
AIR IN PLACE THROUGHOUT PERIOD AS UPPER TROUGH OVER THE WESTERN
UNITED STATES AT THIS MOMENT...MAKES AN EASTWARD PUSH. TROUGH WILL
ONLY REACH THE CENTRAL PLAINS BY THE END OF THE PERIOD WITH
ASSOCIATED FRONT FINALLY PUSHING THROUGH IN THE SATURDAY NIGHT TO
EARLY SUNDAY MORNING TIME FRAME.

SEVERAL UPPER LEVEL IMPULSES WILL MOVE THROUGH THE PREVAILING FLOW
WITH A CONTINUING CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION ESPECIALLY DURING THE LATE
AFTERNOON TO EARLY EVENING HOURS. BEST CHANCES ACTUALLY LOOK TO BE
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY WHEN THE STRONGEST OF THE WAVES MOVES THROUGH
ACCOMPANIED BY A SURGE IN MOISTURE. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN A FEW
DEGREES BELOW NORMAL THANKS TO THE CLOUDS AND PRECIPITATION IN THE
AREA AND WILL GO A TITLE BELOW GUIDANCE.
&&

.LONG TERM...SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY

ZONAL UPPER FLOW IS FORECAST TO EXIST ACROSS THE LOWER 48 DURING THE
LONG TERM. LOCALLY AN UPPER TROUGH WILL RESIDE OVER ARKANSAS TO
BEGIN THE PERIOD AND WILL LIKELY MOVE VERY LITTLE THROUGH EARLY NEXT
WEEK AS IT BECOMES CUTOFF FROM THE MAIN FLOW ACROSS THE NRN TIER
STATES. WITH A TROUGH/CUTOFF LOW ATOP ARKANSAS AND A MOIST AIR MASS
AT THE SURFACE...AT LEAST A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL
EXIST EACH DAY. TEMPERATURES WILL START THE PERIOD AROUND OR
SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL...BUT MID TO UPPER 80S WILL CREEP BACK INTO
THE FORECAST TOWARDS MIDWEEK.
&&

.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...56 / LONG TERM...64















000
FXUS64 KLZK 280544 AAA
AFDLZK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR AVIATION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
1245 AM CDT THU MAY 28 2015

.AVIATION...

OVERALL VFR FLIGHT CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED OVERNIGHT WITH HIGH
CLOUDS STREAMING IN OVER THE AREA FROM THE WEST. ONLY PATCHY MVFR
WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH SOME STRATUS AND FOG. SPOTTY IFR MAY BE SEEN
WITH FOG AND LOW CLOUDS. WINDS WILL BE E TO SE AT 3 TO 7 MPH WHILE
SOME AREAS LIGHT AND VARIABLE. ON THURSDAY...VFR CONDITIONS CONTINUE
WITH PATCHY MVFR CEILINGS IN THE MORNING. THURSDAY AFTERNOON
ISOLATED CONVECTION OVER AR WILL BE POSSIBLE. (59)

&&

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT

ALL SHORT TERM MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT THE GENERALLY UNSETTLED
PATTERN OF LATE WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE PERIOD. AS SUCH...WILL
SIMPLY BLEND FORECAST SOLUTIONS THIS AFTERNOON.

SCATTERED CONVECTION STATING TO POP IN THE HEAT OF THE DAY AND WILL
LIKELY INCREASE IN COVERAGE THIS EVENING. EARLIER STORMS OVER THE
SOUTHEAST AND THE FEW STORMS THAT HAVE DEVELOPED AT THIS TIME HAVE
BEEN VERY EFFICIENT RAIN MAKERS PRODUCING LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN.
AIRMASS REMAINS VERY MOIST WITH PWATS JUST UNDER 1.5 INCHES BUT
EXPECTED TO CLIMB TO IN EXCESS OF 1.75 INCHES BY THE END OF THE
PERIOD.

SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT AND SOUTHEAST SURFACE FLOW WILL KEEPING MOIST
AIR IN PLACE THROUGHOUT PERIOD AS UPPER TROUGH OVER THE WESTERN
UNITED STATES AT THIS MOMENT...MAKES AN EASTWARD PUSH. TROUGH WILL
ONLY REACH THE CENTRAL PLAINS BY THE END OF THE PERIOD WITH
ASSOCIATED FRONT FINALLY PUSHING THROUGH IN THE SATURDAY NIGHT TO
EARLY SUNDAY MORNING TIME FRAME.

SEVERAL UPPER LEVEL IMPULSES WILL MOVE THROUGH THE PREVAILING FLOW
WITH A CONTINUING CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION ESPECIALLY DURING THE LATE
AFTERNOON TO EARLY EVENING HOURS. BEST CHANCES ACTUALLY LOOK TO BE
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY WHEN THE STRONGEST OF THE WAVES MOVES THROUGH
ACCOMPANIED BY A SURGE IN MOISTURE. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN A FEW
DEGREES BELOW NORMAL THANKS TO THE CLOUDS AND PRECIPITATION IN THE
AREA AND WILL GO A TITLE BELOW GUIDANCE.
&&

.LONG TERM...SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY

ZONAL UPPER FLOW IS FORECAST TO EXIST ACROSS THE LOWER 48 DURING THE
LONG TERM. LOCALLY AN UPPER TROUGH WILL RESIDE OVER ARKANSAS TO
BEGIN THE PERIOD AND WILL LIKELY MOVE VERY LITTLE THROUGH EARLY NEXT
WEEK AS IT BECOMES CUTOFF FROM THE MAIN FLOW ACROSS THE NRN TIER
STATES. WITH A TROUGH/CUTOFF LOW ATOP ARKANSAS AND A MOIST AIR MASS
AT THE SURFACE...AT LEAST A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL
EXIST EACH DAY. TEMPERATURES WILL START THE PERIOD AROUND OR
SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL...BUT MID TO UPPER 80S WILL CREEP BACK INTO
THE FORECAST TOWARDS MIDWEEK.
&&

.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...56 / LONG TERM...64















000
FXUS64 KLZK 280544 AAA
AFDLZK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR AVIATION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
1245 AM CDT THU MAY 28 2015

.AVIATION...

OVERALL VFR FLIGHT CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED OVERNIGHT WITH HIGH
CLOUDS STREAMING IN OVER THE AREA FROM THE WEST. ONLY PATCHY MVFR
WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH SOME STRATUS AND FOG. SPOTTY IFR MAY BE SEEN
WITH FOG AND LOW CLOUDS. WINDS WILL BE E TO SE AT 3 TO 7 MPH WHILE
SOME AREAS LIGHT AND VARIABLE. ON THURSDAY...VFR CONDITIONS CONTINUE
WITH PATCHY MVFR CEILINGS IN THE MORNING. THURSDAY AFTERNOON
ISOLATED CONVECTION OVER AR WILL BE POSSIBLE. (59)

&&

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT

ALL SHORT TERM MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT THE GENERALLY UNSETTLED
PATTERN OF LATE WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE PERIOD. AS SUCH...WILL
SIMPLY BLEND FORECAST SOLUTIONS THIS AFTERNOON.

SCATTERED CONVECTION STATING TO POP IN THE HEAT OF THE DAY AND WILL
LIKELY INCREASE IN COVERAGE THIS EVENING. EARLIER STORMS OVER THE
SOUTHEAST AND THE FEW STORMS THAT HAVE DEVELOPED AT THIS TIME HAVE
BEEN VERY EFFICIENT RAIN MAKERS PRODUCING LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN.
AIRMASS REMAINS VERY MOIST WITH PWATS JUST UNDER 1.5 INCHES BUT
EXPECTED TO CLIMB TO IN EXCESS OF 1.75 INCHES BY THE END OF THE
PERIOD.

SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT AND SOUTHEAST SURFACE FLOW WILL KEEPING MOIST
AIR IN PLACE THROUGHOUT PERIOD AS UPPER TROUGH OVER THE WESTERN
UNITED STATES AT THIS MOMENT...MAKES AN EASTWARD PUSH. TROUGH WILL
ONLY REACH THE CENTRAL PLAINS BY THE END OF THE PERIOD WITH
ASSOCIATED FRONT FINALLY PUSHING THROUGH IN THE SATURDAY NIGHT TO
EARLY SUNDAY MORNING TIME FRAME.

SEVERAL UPPER LEVEL IMPULSES WILL MOVE THROUGH THE PREVAILING FLOW
WITH A CONTINUING CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION ESPECIALLY DURING THE LATE
AFTERNOON TO EARLY EVENING HOURS. BEST CHANCES ACTUALLY LOOK TO BE
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY WHEN THE STRONGEST OF THE WAVES MOVES THROUGH
ACCOMPANIED BY A SURGE IN MOISTURE. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN A FEW
DEGREES BELOW NORMAL THANKS TO THE CLOUDS AND PRECIPITATION IN THE
AREA AND WILL GO A TITLE BELOW GUIDANCE.
&&

.LONG TERM...SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY

ZONAL UPPER FLOW IS FORECAST TO EXIST ACROSS THE LOWER 48 DURING THE
LONG TERM. LOCALLY AN UPPER TROUGH WILL RESIDE OVER ARKANSAS TO
BEGIN THE PERIOD AND WILL LIKELY MOVE VERY LITTLE THROUGH EARLY NEXT
WEEK AS IT BECOMES CUTOFF FROM THE MAIN FLOW ACROSS THE NRN TIER
STATES. WITH A TROUGH/CUTOFF LOW ATOP ARKANSAS AND A MOIST AIR MASS
AT THE SURFACE...AT LEAST A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL
EXIST EACH DAY. TEMPERATURES WILL START THE PERIOD AROUND OR
SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL...BUT MID TO UPPER 80S WILL CREEP BACK INTO
THE FORECAST TOWARDS MIDWEEK.
&&

.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...56 / LONG TERM...64















000
FXUS64 KLZK 280249 AAA
AFDLZK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR AVIATION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
950 PM CDT WED MAY 27 2015

.AVIATION...

SOME LOW CLOUDS/FOG WILL FORM TOWARD DAWN...WITH MVFR CONDITIONS
IN PLACES THURSDAY MORNING. OTHERWISE...IT WILL BE MOSTLY CLEAR
WITH SOME HIGH CLOUDS OVERNIGHT. ON THURSDAY...SCATTERED CUMULUS
CLOUDS WILL FORM BETWEEN 2500 AND 3500 FEET. ANY PRECIPITATION WILL
BE ISOLATED.

WINDS WILL BE LIGHT EAST/SOUTHEAST TONIGHT...AND EAST/SOUTHEAST
AT 4 TO 8 MPH THURSDAY. (46)
&&

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT
ALL SHORT TERM MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT THE GENERALLY UNSETTLED
PATTERN OF LATE WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE PERIOD. AS SUCH...WILL
SIMPLY BLEND FORECAST SOLUTIONS THIS AFTERNOON.

SCATTERED CONVECTION STATING TO POP IN THE HEAT OF THE DAY AND WILL
LIKELY INCREASE IN COVERAGE THIS EVENING. EARLIER STORMS OVER THE
SOUTHEAST AND THE FEW STORMS THAT HAVE DEVELOPED AT THIS TIME HAVE
BEEN VERY EFFICIENT RAIN MAKERS PRODUCING LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN.
AIRMASS REMAINS VERY MOIST WITH PWATS JUST UNDER 1.5 INCHES BUT
EXPECTED TO CLIMB TO IN EXCESS OF 1.75 INCHES BY THE END OF THE
PERIOD.

SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT AND SOUTHEAST SURFACE FLOW WILL KEEPING MOIST
AIR IN PLACE THROUGHOUT PERIOD AS UPPER TROUGH OVER THE WESTERN
UNITED STATES AT THIS MOMENT...MAKES AN EASTWARD PUSH. TROUGH WILL
ONLY REACH THE CENTRAL PLAINS BY THE END OF THE PERIOD WITH
ASSOCIATED FRONT FINALLY PUSHING THROUGH IN THE SATURDAY NIGHT TO
EARLY SUNDAY MORNING TIME FRAME.

SEVERAL UPPER LEVEL IMPULSES WILL MOVE THROUGH THE PREVAILING FLOW
WITH A CONTINUING CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION ESPECIALLY DURING THE LATE
AFTERNOON TO EARLY EVENING HOURS. BEST CHANCES ACTUALLY LOOK TO BE
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY WHEN THE STRONGEST OF THE WAVES MOVES THROUGH
ACCOMPANIED BY A SURGE IN MOISTURE. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN A FEW
DEGREES BELOW NORMAL THANKS TO THE CLOUDS AND PRECIPITATION IN THE
AREA AND WILL GO A TITLE BELOW GUIDANCE.
&&

.LONG TERM...SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY
ZONAL UPPER FLOW IS FORECAST TO EXIST ACROSS THE LOWER 48 DURING THE
LONG TERM. LOCALLY AN UPPER TROUGH WILL RESIDE OVER ARKANSAS TO
BEGIN THE PERIOD AND WILL LIKELY MOVE VERY LITTLE THROUGH EARLY NEXT
WEEK AS IT BECOMES CUTOFF FROM THE MAIN FLOW ACROSS THE NRN TIER
STATES. WITH A TROUGH/CUTOFF LOW ATOP ARKANSAS AND A MOIST AIR MASS
AT THE SURFACE...AT LEAST A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL
EXIST EACH DAY. TEMPERATURES WILL START THE PERIOD AROUND OR
SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL...BUT MID TO UPPER 80S WILL CREEP BACK INTO
THE FORECAST TOWARDS MIDWEEK.
&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BATESVILLE AR     67  84  68  83 /  30  40  30  60
CAMDEN AR         69  85  69  85 /  30  40  30  50
HARRISON AR       64  81  65  80 /  30  40  40  60
HOT SPRINGS AR    69  84  69  83 /  30  40  40  60
LITTLE ROCK   AR  69  85  69  85 /  30  40  30  60
MONTICELLO AR     71  86  70  86 /  30  40  30  40
MOUNT IDA AR      68  83  68  82 /  30  40  40  60
MOUNTAIN HOME AR  65  82  66  81 /  30  40  40  60
NEWPORT AR        68  85  69  84 /  30  40  30  60
PINE BLUFF AR     70  85  69  85 /  30  40  30  50
RUSSELLVILLE AR   68  84  68  82 /  30  40  40  60
SEARCY AR         68  85  68  84 /  30  40  30  60
STUTTGART AR      70  86  69  85 /  30  40  30  50
&&

.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...56 / LONG TERM...64











000
FXUS64 KLZK 280249 AAA
AFDLZK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR AVIATION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
950 PM CDT WED MAY 27 2015

.AVIATION...

SOME LOW CLOUDS/FOG WILL FORM TOWARD DAWN...WITH MVFR CONDITIONS
IN PLACES THURSDAY MORNING. OTHERWISE...IT WILL BE MOSTLY CLEAR
WITH SOME HIGH CLOUDS OVERNIGHT. ON THURSDAY...SCATTERED CUMULUS
CLOUDS WILL FORM BETWEEN 2500 AND 3500 FEET. ANY PRECIPITATION WILL
BE ISOLATED.

WINDS WILL BE LIGHT EAST/SOUTHEAST TONIGHT...AND EAST/SOUTHEAST
AT 4 TO 8 MPH THURSDAY. (46)
&&

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT
ALL SHORT TERM MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT THE GENERALLY UNSETTLED
PATTERN OF LATE WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE PERIOD. AS SUCH...WILL
SIMPLY BLEND FORECAST SOLUTIONS THIS AFTERNOON.

SCATTERED CONVECTION STATING TO POP IN THE HEAT OF THE DAY AND WILL
LIKELY INCREASE IN COVERAGE THIS EVENING. EARLIER STORMS OVER THE
SOUTHEAST AND THE FEW STORMS THAT HAVE DEVELOPED AT THIS TIME HAVE
BEEN VERY EFFICIENT RAIN MAKERS PRODUCING LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN.
AIRMASS REMAINS VERY MOIST WITH PWATS JUST UNDER 1.5 INCHES BUT
EXPECTED TO CLIMB TO IN EXCESS OF 1.75 INCHES BY THE END OF THE
PERIOD.

SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT AND SOUTHEAST SURFACE FLOW WILL KEEPING MOIST
AIR IN PLACE THROUGHOUT PERIOD AS UPPER TROUGH OVER THE WESTERN
UNITED STATES AT THIS MOMENT...MAKES AN EASTWARD PUSH. TROUGH WILL
ONLY REACH THE CENTRAL PLAINS BY THE END OF THE PERIOD WITH
ASSOCIATED FRONT FINALLY PUSHING THROUGH IN THE SATURDAY NIGHT TO
EARLY SUNDAY MORNING TIME FRAME.

SEVERAL UPPER LEVEL IMPULSES WILL MOVE THROUGH THE PREVAILING FLOW
WITH A CONTINUING CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION ESPECIALLY DURING THE LATE
AFTERNOON TO EARLY EVENING HOURS. BEST CHANCES ACTUALLY LOOK TO BE
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY WHEN THE STRONGEST OF THE WAVES MOVES THROUGH
ACCOMPANIED BY A SURGE IN MOISTURE. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN A FEW
DEGREES BELOW NORMAL THANKS TO THE CLOUDS AND PRECIPITATION IN THE
AREA AND WILL GO A TITLE BELOW GUIDANCE.
&&

.LONG TERM...SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY
ZONAL UPPER FLOW IS FORECAST TO EXIST ACROSS THE LOWER 48 DURING THE
LONG TERM. LOCALLY AN UPPER TROUGH WILL RESIDE OVER ARKANSAS TO
BEGIN THE PERIOD AND WILL LIKELY MOVE VERY LITTLE THROUGH EARLY NEXT
WEEK AS IT BECOMES CUTOFF FROM THE MAIN FLOW ACROSS THE NRN TIER
STATES. WITH A TROUGH/CUTOFF LOW ATOP ARKANSAS AND A MOIST AIR MASS
AT THE SURFACE...AT LEAST A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL
EXIST EACH DAY. TEMPERATURES WILL START THE PERIOD AROUND OR
SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL...BUT MID TO UPPER 80S WILL CREEP BACK INTO
THE FORECAST TOWARDS MIDWEEK.
&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BATESVILLE AR     67  84  68  83 /  30  40  30  60
CAMDEN AR         69  85  69  85 /  30  40  30  50
HARRISON AR       64  81  65  80 /  30  40  40  60
HOT SPRINGS AR    69  84  69  83 /  30  40  40  60
LITTLE ROCK   AR  69  85  69  85 /  30  40  30  60
MONTICELLO AR     71  86  70  86 /  30  40  30  40
MOUNT IDA AR      68  83  68  82 /  30  40  40  60
MOUNTAIN HOME AR  65  82  66  81 /  30  40  40  60
NEWPORT AR        68  85  69  84 /  30  40  30  60
PINE BLUFF AR     70  85  69  85 /  30  40  30  50
RUSSELLVILLE AR   68  84  68  82 /  30  40  40  60
SEARCY AR         68  85  68  84 /  30  40  30  60
STUTTGART AR      70  86  69  85 /  30  40  30  50
&&

.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...56 / LONG TERM...64












000
FXUS64 KLZK 271953
AFDLZK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
250 PM CDT WED MAY 27 2015

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT
ALL SHORT TERM MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT THE GENERALLY UNSETTLED
PATTERN OF LATE WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE PERIOD. AS SUCH...WILL
SIMPLY BLEND FORECAST SOLUTIONS THIS AFTERNOON.

SCATTERED CONVECTION STATING TO POP IN THE HEAT OF THE DAY AND WILL
LIKELY INCREASE IN COVERAGE THIS EVENING. EARLIER STORMS OVER THE
SOUTHEAST AND THE FEW STORMS THAT HAVE DEVELOPED AT THIS TIME HAVE
BEEN VERY EFFICIENT RAIN MAKERS PRODUCING LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN.
AIRMASS REMAINS VERY MOIST WITH PWATS JUST UNDER 1.5 INCHES BUT
EXPECTED TO CLIMB TO IN EXCESS OF 1.75 INCHES BY THE END OF THE
PERIOD.

SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT AND SOUTHEAST SURFACE FLOW WILL KEEPING MOIST
AIR IN PLACE THROUGHOUT PERIOD AS UPPER TROUGH OVER THE WESTERN
UNITED STATES AT THIS MOMENT...MAKES AN EASTWARD PUSH. TROUGH WILL
ONLY REACH THE CENTRAL PLAINS BY THE END OF THE PERIOD WITH
ASSOCIATED FRONT FINALLY PUSHING THROUGH IN THE SATURDAY NIGHT TO
EARLY SUNDAY MORNING TIME FRAME.

SEVERAL UPPER LEVEL IMPULSES WILL MOVE THROUGH THE PREVAILING FLOW
WITH A CONTINUING CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION ESPECIALLY DURING THE LATE
AFTERNOON TO EARLY EVENING HOURS. BEST CHANCES ACTUALLY LOOK TO BE
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY WHEN THE STRONGEST OF THE WAVES MOVES THROUGH
ACCOMPANIED BY A SURGE IN MOISTURE. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN A FEW
DEGREES BELOW NORMAL THANKS TO THE CLOUDS AND PRECIPITATION IN THE
AREA AND WILL GO A TITLE BELOW GUIDANCE.
&&

.LONG TERM...SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY
ZONAL UPPER FLOW IS FORECAST TO EXIST ACROSS THE LOWER 48 DURING THE
LONG TERM. LOCALLY AN UPPER TROUGH WILL RESIDE OVER ARKANSAS TO
BEGIN THE PERIOD AND WILL LIKELY MOVE VERY LITTLE THROUGH EARLY NEXT
WEEK AS IT BECOMES CUTOFF FROM THE MAIN FLOW ACROSS THE NRN TIER
STATES. WITH A TROUGH/CUTOFF LOW ATOP ARKANSAS AND A MOIST AIR MASS
AT THE SURFACE...AT LEAST A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL
EXIST EACH DAY. TEMPERATURES WILL START THE PERIOD AROUND OR
SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL...BUT MID TO UPPER 80S WILL CREEP BACK INTO
THE FORECAST TOWARDS MIDWEEK.
&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BATESVILLE AR     67  84  68  83 /  30  40  30  60
CAMDEN AR         69  85  69  85 /  30  40  30  50
HARRISON AR       64  81  65  80 /  30  40  40  60
HOT SPRINGS AR    69  84  69  83 /  30  40  40  60
LITTLE ROCK   AR  69  85  69  85 /  30  40  30  60
MONTICELLO AR     71  86  70  86 /  30  40  30  40
MOUNT IDA AR      68  83  68  82 /  30  40  40  60
MOUNTAIN HOME AR  65  82  66  81 /  30  40  40  60
NEWPORT AR        68  85  69  84 /  30  40  30  60
PINE BLUFF AR     70  85  69  85 /  30  40  30  50
RUSSELLVILLE AR   68  84  68  82 /  30  40  40  60
SEARCY AR         68  85  68  84 /  30  40  30  60
STUTTGART AR      70  86  69  85 /  30  40  30  50
&&

.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...56 / LONG TERM...64









000
FXUS64 KLZK 271953
AFDLZK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
250 PM CDT WED MAY 27 2015

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT
ALL SHORT TERM MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT THE GENERALLY UNSETTLED
PATTERN OF LATE WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE PERIOD. AS SUCH...WILL
SIMPLY BLEND FORECAST SOLUTIONS THIS AFTERNOON.

SCATTERED CONVECTION STATING TO POP IN THE HEAT OF THE DAY AND WILL
LIKELY INCREASE IN COVERAGE THIS EVENING. EARLIER STORMS OVER THE
SOUTHEAST AND THE FEW STORMS THAT HAVE DEVELOPED AT THIS TIME HAVE
BEEN VERY EFFICIENT RAIN MAKERS PRODUCING LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN.
AIRMASS REMAINS VERY MOIST WITH PWATS JUST UNDER 1.5 INCHES BUT
EXPECTED TO CLIMB TO IN EXCESS OF 1.75 INCHES BY THE END OF THE
PERIOD.

SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT AND SOUTHEAST SURFACE FLOW WILL KEEPING MOIST
AIR IN PLACE THROUGHOUT PERIOD AS UPPER TROUGH OVER THE WESTERN
UNITED STATES AT THIS MOMENT...MAKES AN EASTWARD PUSH. TROUGH WILL
ONLY REACH THE CENTRAL PLAINS BY THE END OF THE PERIOD WITH
ASSOCIATED FRONT FINALLY PUSHING THROUGH IN THE SATURDAY NIGHT TO
EARLY SUNDAY MORNING TIME FRAME.

SEVERAL UPPER LEVEL IMPULSES WILL MOVE THROUGH THE PREVAILING FLOW
WITH A CONTINUING CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION ESPECIALLY DURING THE LATE
AFTERNOON TO EARLY EVENING HOURS. BEST CHANCES ACTUALLY LOOK TO BE
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY WHEN THE STRONGEST OF THE WAVES MOVES THROUGH
ACCOMPANIED BY A SURGE IN MOISTURE. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN A FEW
DEGREES BELOW NORMAL THANKS TO THE CLOUDS AND PRECIPITATION IN THE
AREA AND WILL GO A TITLE BELOW GUIDANCE.
&&

.LONG TERM...SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY
ZONAL UPPER FLOW IS FORECAST TO EXIST ACROSS THE LOWER 48 DURING THE
LONG TERM. LOCALLY AN UPPER TROUGH WILL RESIDE OVER ARKANSAS TO
BEGIN THE PERIOD AND WILL LIKELY MOVE VERY LITTLE THROUGH EARLY NEXT
WEEK AS IT BECOMES CUTOFF FROM THE MAIN FLOW ACROSS THE NRN TIER
STATES. WITH A TROUGH/CUTOFF LOW ATOP ARKANSAS AND A MOIST AIR MASS
AT THE SURFACE...AT LEAST A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL
EXIST EACH DAY. TEMPERATURES WILL START THE PERIOD AROUND OR
SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL...BUT MID TO UPPER 80S WILL CREEP BACK INTO
THE FORECAST TOWARDS MIDWEEK.
&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BATESVILLE AR     67  84  68  83 /  30  40  30  60
CAMDEN AR         69  85  69  85 /  30  40  30  50
HARRISON AR       64  81  65  80 /  30  40  40  60
HOT SPRINGS AR    69  84  69  83 /  30  40  40  60
LITTLE ROCK   AR  69  85  69  85 /  30  40  30  60
MONTICELLO AR     71  86  70  86 /  30  40  30  40
MOUNT IDA AR      68  83  68  82 /  30  40  40  60
MOUNTAIN HOME AR  65  82  66  81 /  30  40  40  60
NEWPORT AR        68  85  69  84 /  30  40  30  60
PINE BLUFF AR     70  85  69  85 /  30  40  30  50
RUSSELLVILLE AR   68  84  68  82 /  30  40  40  60
SEARCY AR         68  85  68  84 /  30  40  30  60
STUTTGART AR      70  86  69  85 /  30  40  30  50
&&

.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...56 / LONG TERM...64








000
FXUS64 KLZK 271140 AAA
AFDLZK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATE FOR AVIATION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
640 AM CDT WED MAY 27 2015

.AVIATION...

OVERALL VFR CEILINGS ARE EXPECTED TODAY WITH MID AND HIGH CLOUDS
STREAMING IN OVER AR. PATCHY MVFR CEILINGS WILL BE SEEN AT KHOT AND
KADF THIS MORNING. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED CONVECTION WILL BE SEEN
OVER SOUTHERN AR THIS MORNING...ESPECIALLY AT KLLQ. CONVECTION WILL
PICK UP A BIT MORE IN THE AFTERNOON AND AFFECT MOST TAFS DUE TO
HEATING. DUE TO UNCERTAINTY ONLY USED VCTS THIS AFTERNOON. WINDS
WILL BE SE TO SW AT 5 TO 15 MPH. (59)

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION.../ISSUED 343 AM CDT WED MAY 27 2015/

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT

CLUSTER OF THUNDERSTORMS MOVED THROUGH EASTERN OKLAHOMA
OVERNIGHT...BUT WEAKENED AS THEY APPROACHED THE ARKANSAS STATE LINE.
THE CONFIDENCE IN THE POP FORECAST IS LOW TODAY...AS SHORT TERM
GUIDANCE IS NOT AGREEING ON A FAVORED AREA OF RAINFALL TODAY. OTHER
THAN THE NORTHWEST AND SOUTHEAST CORNERS THIS MORNING...HAVE LEFT
GENERAL CHANCE POPS IN THE FORECAST TODAY.

SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL REMAIN IN THE FORECAST
THROUGH FRIDAY...BEFORE THE NEXT FRONT MOVES INTO THE REGION. THIS
WILL BE ANOTHER SLOW MOVING SYSTEM...AS UPPER LOW CURRENTLY OFF THE
SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA COAST TAKES SEVERAL DAYS MOVING INTO THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS.

AS IS USUAL WITH THESE SLOW MOVING COLD FRONTS...THERE IS THE
POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAINFALL. WITH THE WET MAY ALREADY AND THE
SATURATED SOILS...FLASH FLOODING WILL BE THE MAIN CONCERN WITH THIS
SYSTEM.

TEMPERATURES IN THE SHORT TERM WILL BE NEAR NORMAL...WITH HIGHS
GENERALLY IN THE LOWER TO MID 80S...WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE LOWER
TO MID 60S.
&&

.LONG TERM...SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY

AN UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE TROUGH AND FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL BE
MOVING THROUGH THE REGION ON SUNDAY...WITH A GOOD CHANCE OF
CONVECTION TO THE AREA. THE BOUNDARY SLOWLY SAGS SE THROUGH AR WHILE
FORECAST WILL KEEP A LOWER CHANCE OF CONVECTION ON MONDAY. LOWEST
CHANCE OF RAIN WILL BE IN THE NORTHWEST...WHILE THE HIGHEST IN THE
SOUTHEAST. ON TUESDAY...AN UPPER RIDGE IS OVER THE SE U.S. BUT
MODELS CUT OFF AN UPPER LOW PRESSURE OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS...AND
WITH THE UNCERTAINTY IF THIS FEATURE FORMS AND ITS LOCATION...WILL
KEEP A LOW CHANCE OF CONVECTION OVER AR. GFS HAS THE UPPER FEATURE
MORE OVER AR...WHILE THE EURO HAS IT FARTHER EAST OVER MS TO AL. SO
UNCERTAINTY DOES EXIST. TEMPS IN THE EXTENDED WILL BE AROUND TO A
BIT ABOVE NORMAL VALUES. HEAVY RAIN WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THE SLOW
MOVING FRONTAL BOUNDARY SATURDAY AND SUNDAY.
&&

.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...58 / LONG TERM...59








000
FXUS64 KLZK 271140 AAA
AFDLZK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATE FOR AVIATION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
640 AM CDT WED MAY 27 2015

.AVIATION...

OVERALL VFR CEILINGS ARE EXPECTED TODAY WITH MID AND HIGH CLOUDS
STREAMING IN OVER AR. PATCHY MVFR CEILINGS WILL BE SEEN AT KHOT AND
KADF THIS MORNING. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED CONVECTION WILL BE SEEN
OVER SOUTHERN AR THIS MORNING...ESPECIALLY AT KLLQ. CONVECTION WILL
PICK UP A BIT MORE IN THE AFTERNOON AND AFFECT MOST TAFS DUE TO
HEATING. DUE TO UNCERTAINTY ONLY USED VCTS THIS AFTERNOON. WINDS
WILL BE SE TO SW AT 5 TO 15 MPH. (59)

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION.../ISSUED 343 AM CDT WED MAY 27 2015/

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT

CLUSTER OF THUNDERSTORMS MOVED THROUGH EASTERN OKLAHOMA
OVERNIGHT...BUT WEAKENED AS THEY APPROACHED THE ARKANSAS STATE LINE.
THE CONFIDENCE IN THE POP FORECAST IS LOW TODAY...AS SHORT TERM
GUIDANCE IS NOT AGREEING ON A FAVORED AREA OF RAINFALL TODAY. OTHER
THAN THE NORTHWEST AND SOUTHEAST CORNERS THIS MORNING...HAVE LEFT
GENERAL CHANCE POPS IN THE FORECAST TODAY.

SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL REMAIN IN THE FORECAST
THROUGH FRIDAY...BEFORE THE NEXT FRONT MOVES INTO THE REGION. THIS
WILL BE ANOTHER SLOW MOVING SYSTEM...AS UPPER LOW CURRENTLY OFF THE
SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA COAST TAKES SEVERAL DAYS MOVING INTO THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS.

AS IS USUAL WITH THESE SLOW MOVING COLD FRONTS...THERE IS THE
POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAINFALL. WITH THE WET MAY ALREADY AND THE
SATURATED SOILS...FLASH FLOODING WILL BE THE MAIN CONCERN WITH THIS
SYSTEM.

TEMPERATURES IN THE SHORT TERM WILL BE NEAR NORMAL...WITH HIGHS
GENERALLY IN THE LOWER TO MID 80S...WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE LOWER
TO MID 60S.
&&

.LONG TERM...SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY

AN UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE TROUGH AND FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL BE
MOVING THROUGH THE REGION ON SUNDAY...WITH A GOOD CHANCE OF
CONVECTION TO THE AREA. THE BOUNDARY SLOWLY SAGS SE THROUGH AR WHILE
FORECAST WILL KEEP A LOWER CHANCE OF CONVECTION ON MONDAY. LOWEST
CHANCE OF RAIN WILL BE IN THE NORTHWEST...WHILE THE HIGHEST IN THE
SOUTHEAST. ON TUESDAY...AN UPPER RIDGE IS OVER THE SE U.S. BUT
MODELS CUT OFF AN UPPER LOW PRESSURE OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS...AND
WITH THE UNCERTAINTY IF THIS FEATURE FORMS AND ITS LOCATION...WILL
KEEP A LOW CHANCE OF CONVECTION OVER AR. GFS HAS THE UPPER FEATURE
MORE OVER AR...WHILE THE EURO HAS IT FARTHER EAST OVER MS TO AL. SO
UNCERTAINTY DOES EXIST. TEMPS IN THE EXTENDED WILL BE AROUND TO A
BIT ABOVE NORMAL VALUES. HEAVY RAIN WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THE SLOW
MOVING FRONTAL BOUNDARY SATURDAY AND SUNDAY.
&&

.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...58 / LONG TERM...59







000
FXUS64 KLZK 270843
AFDLZK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
343 AM CDT WED MAY 27 2015

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT

CLUSTER OF THUNDERSTORMS MOVED THROUGH EASTERN OKLAHOMA
OVERNIGHT...BUT WEAKENED AS THEY APPROACHED THE ARKANSAS STATE LINE.
THE CONFIDENCE IN THE POP FORECAST IS LOW TODAY...AS SHORT TERM
GUIDANCE IS NOT AGREEING ON A FAVORED AREA OF RAINFALL TODAY. OTHER
THAN THE NORTHWEST AND SOUTHEAST CORNERS THIS MORNING...HAVE LEFT
GENERAL CHANCE POPS IN THE FORECAST TODAY.

SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL REMAIN IN THE FORECAST
THROUGH FRIDAY...BEFORE THE NEXT FRONT MOVES INTO THE REGION. THIS
WILL BE ANOTHER SLOW MOVING SYSTEM...AS UPPER LOW CURRENTLY OFF THE
SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA COAST TAKES SEVERAL DAYS MOVING INTO THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS.

AS IS USUAL WITH THESE SLOW MOVING COLD FRONTS...THERE IS THE
POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAINFALL. WITH THE WET MAY ALREADY AND THE
SATURATED SOILS...FLASH FLOODING WILL BE THE MAIN CONCERN WITH THIS
SYSTEM.

TEMPERATURES IN THE SHORT TERM WILL BE NEAR NORMAL...WITH HIGHS
GENERALLY IN THE LOWER TO MID 80S...WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE LOWER
TO MID 60S.
&&

.LONG TERM...SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY

AN UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE TROUGH AND FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL BE
MOVING THROUGH THE REGION ON SUNDAY...WITH A GOOD CHANCE OF
CONVECTION TO THE AREA. THE BOUNDARY SLOWLY SAGS SE THROUGH AR WHILE
FORECAST WILL KEEP A LOWER CHANCE OF CONVECTION ON MONDAY. LOWEST
CHANCE OF RAIN WILL BE IN THE NORTHWEST...WHILE THE HIGHEST IN THE
SOUTHEAST. ON TUESDAY...AN UPPER RIDGE IS OVER THE SE U.S. BUT
MODELS CUT OFF AN UPPER LOW PRESSURE OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS...AND
WITH THE UNCERTAINTY IF THIS FEATURE FORMS AND ITS LOCATION...WILL
KEEP A LOW CHANCE OF CONVECTION OVER AR. GFS HAS THE UPPER FEATURE
MORE OVER AR...WHILE THE EURO HAS IT FARTHER EAST OVER MS TO AL. SO
UNCERTAINTY DOES EXIST. TEMPS IN THE EXTENDED WILL BE AROUND TO A
BIT ABOVE NORMAL VALUES. HEAVY RAIN WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THE SLOW
MOVING FRONTAL BOUNDARY SATURDAY AND SUNDAY.
&&

.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...58 / LONG TERM...59




000
FXUS64 KLZK 270843
AFDLZK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
343 AM CDT WED MAY 27 2015

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT

CLUSTER OF THUNDERSTORMS MOVED THROUGH EASTERN OKLAHOMA
OVERNIGHT...BUT WEAKENED AS THEY APPROACHED THE ARKANSAS STATE LINE.
THE CONFIDENCE IN THE POP FORECAST IS LOW TODAY...AS SHORT TERM
GUIDANCE IS NOT AGREEING ON A FAVORED AREA OF RAINFALL TODAY. OTHER
THAN THE NORTHWEST AND SOUTHEAST CORNERS THIS MORNING...HAVE LEFT
GENERAL CHANCE POPS IN THE FORECAST TODAY.

SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL REMAIN IN THE FORECAST
THROUGH FRIDAY...BEFORE THE NEXT FRONT MOVES INTO THE REGION. THIS
WILL BE ANOTHER SLOW MOVING SYSTEM...AS UPPER LOW CURRENTLY OFF THE
SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA COAST TAKES SEVERAL DAYS MOVING INTO THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS.

AS IS USUAL WITH THESE SLOW MOVING COLD FRONTS...THERE IS THE
POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAINFALL. WITH THE WET MAY ALREADY AND THE
SATURATED SOILS...FLASH FLOODING WILL BE THE MAIN CONCERN WITH THIS
SYSTEM.

TEMPERATURES IN THE SHORT TERM WILL BE NEAR NORMAL...WITH HIGHS
GENERALLY IN THE LOWER TO MID 80S...WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE LOWER
TO MID 60S.
&&

.LONG TERM...SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY

AN UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE TROUGH AND FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL BE
MOVING THROUGH THE REGION ON SUNDAY...WITH A GOOD CHANCE OF
CONVECTION TO THE AREA. THE BOUNDARY SLOWLY SAGS SE THROUGH AR WHILE
FORECAST WILL KEEP A LOWER CHANCE OF CONVECTION ON MONDAY. LOWEST
CHANCE OF RAIN WILL BE IN THE NORTHWEST...WHILE THE HIGHEST IN THE
SOUTHEAST. ON TUESDAY...AN UPPER RIDGE IS OVER THE SE U.S. BUT
MODELS CUT OFF AN UPPER LOW PRESSURE OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS...AND
WITH THE UNCERTAINTY IF THIS FEATURE FORMS AND ITS LOCATION...WILL
KEEP A LOW CHANCE OF CONVECTION OVER AR. GFS HAS THE UPPER FEATURE
MORE OVER AR...WHILE THE EURO HAS IT FARTHER EAST OVER MS TO AL. SO
UNCERTAINTY DOES EXIST. TEMPS IN THE EXTENDED WILL BE AROUND TO A
BIT ABOVE NORMAL VALUES. HEAVY RAIN WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THE SLOW
MOVING FRONTAL BOUNDARY SATURDAY AND SUNDAY.
&&

.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...58 / LONG TERM...59





000
FXUS64 KLZK 270843
AFDLZK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
343 AM CDT WED MAY 27 2015

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT

CLUSTER OF THUNDERSTORMS MOVED THROUGH EASTERN OKLAHOMA
OVERNIGHT...BUT WEAKENED AS THEY APPROACHED THE ARKANSAS STATE LINE.
THE CONFIDENCE IN THE POP FORECAST IS LOW TODAY...AS SHORT TERM
GUIDANCE IS NOT AGREEING ON A FAVORED AREA OF RAINFALL TODAY. OTHER
THAN THE NORTHWEST AND SOUTHEAST CORNERS THIS MORNING...HAVE LEFT
GENERAL CHANCE POPS IN THE FORECAST TODAY.

SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL REMAIN IN THE FORECAST
THROUGH FRIDAY...BEFORE THE NEXT FRONT MOVES INTO THE REGION. THIS
WILL BE ANOTHER SLOW MOVING SYSTEM...AS UPPER LOW CURRENTLY OFF THE
SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA COAST TAKES SEVERAL DAYS MOVING INTO THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS.

AS IS USUAL WITH THESE SLOW MOVING COLD FRONTS...THERE IS THE
POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAINFALL. WITH THE WET MAY ALREADY AND THE
SATURATED SOILS...FLASH FLOODING WILL BE THE MAIN CONCERN WITH THIS
SYSTEM.

TEMPERATURES IN THE SHORT TERM WILL BE NEAR NORMAL...WITH HIGHS
GENERALLY IN THE LOWER TO MID 80S...WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE LOWER
TO MID 60S.
&&

.LONG TERM...SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY

AN UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE TROUGH AND FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL BE
MOVING THROUGH THE REGION ON SUNDAY...WITH A GOOD CHANCE OF
CONVECTION TO THE AREA. THE BOUNDARY SLOWLY SAGS SE THROUGH AR WHILE
FORECAST WILL KEEP A LOWER CHANCE OF CONVECTION ON MONDAY. LOWEST
CHANCE OF RAIN WILL BE IN THE NORTHWEST...WHILE THE HIGHEST IN THE
SOUTHEAST. ON TUESDAY...AN UPPER RIDGE IS OVER THE SE U.S. BUT
MODELS CUT OFF AN UPPER LOW PRESSURE OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS...AND
WITH THE UNCERTAINTY IF THIS FEATURE FORMS AND ITS LOCATION...WILL
KEEP A LOW CHANCE OF CONVECTION OVER AR. GFS HAS THE UPPER FEATURE
MORE OVER AR...WHILE THE EURO HAS IT FARTHER EAST OVER MS TO AL. SO
UNCERTAINTY DOES EXIST. TEMPS IN THE EXTENDED WILL BE AROUND TO A
BIT ABOVE NORMAL VALUES. HEAVY RAIN WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THE SLOW
MOVING FRONTAL BOUNDARY SATURDAY AND SUNDAY.
&&

.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...58 / LONG TERM...59




000
FXUS64 KLZK 270843
AFDLZK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
343 AM CDT WED MAY 27 2015

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT

CLUSTER OF THUNDERSTORMS MOVED THROUGH EASTERN OKLAHOMA
OVERNIGHT...BUT WEAKENED AS THEY APPROACHED THE ARKANSAS STATE LINE.
THE CONFIDENCE IN THE POP FORECAST IS LOW TODAY...AS SHORT TERM
GUIDANCE IS NOT AGREEING ON A FAVORED AREA OF RAINFALL TODAY. OTHER
THAN THE NORTHWEST AND SOUTHEAST CORNERS THIS MORNING...HAVE LEFT
GENERAL CHANCE POPS IN THE FORECAST TODAY.

SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL REMAIN IN THE FORECAST
THROUGH FRIDAY...BEFORE THE NEXT FRONT MOVES INTO THE REGION. THIS
WILL BE ANOTHER SLOW MOVING SYSTEM...AS UPPER LOW CURRENTLY OFF THE
SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA COAST TAKES SEVERAL DAYS MOVING INTO THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS.

AS IS USUAL WITH THESE SLOW MOVING COLD FRONTS...THERE IS THE
POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAINFALL. WITH THE WET MAY ALREADY AND THE
SATURATED SOILS...FLASH FLOODING WILL BE THE MAIN CONCERN WITH THIS
SYSTEM.

TEMPERATURES IN THE SHORT TERM WILL BE NEAR NORMAL...WITH HIGHS
GENERALLY IN THE LOWER TO MID 80S...WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE LOWER
TO MID 60S.
&&

.LONG TERM...SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY

AN UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE TROUGH AND FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL BE
MOVING THROUGH THE REGION ON SUNDAY...WITH A GOOD CHANCE OF
CONVECTION TO THE AREA. THE BOUNDARY SLOWLY SAGS SE THROUGH AR WHILE
FORECAST WILL KEEP A LOWER CHANCE OF CONVECTION ON MONDAY. LOWEST
CHANCE OF RAIN WILL BE IN THE NORTHWEST...WHILE THE HIGHEST IN THE
SOUTHEAST. ON TUESDAY...AN UPPER RIDGE IS OVER THE SE U.S. BUT
MODELS CUT OFF AN UPPER LOW PRESSURE OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS...AND
WITH THE UNCERTAINTY IF THIS FEATURE FORMS AND ITS LOCATION...WILL
KEEP A LOW CHANCE OF CONVECTION OVER AR. GFS HAS THE UPPER FEATURE
MORE OVER AR...WHILE THE EURO HAS IT FARTHER EAST OVER MS TO AL. SO
UNCERTAINTY DOES EXIST. TEMPS IN THE EXTENDED WILL BE AROUND TO A
BIT ABOVE NORMAL VALUES. HEAVY RAIN WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THE SLOW
MOVING FRONTAL BOUNDARY SATURDAY AND SUNDAY.
&&

.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...58 / LONG TERM...59





000
FXUS64 KLZK 270546 AAA
AFDLZK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR AVIATION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
1245 AM CDT WED MAY 27 2015

.AVIATION...
OVERALL VFR CEILINGS ARE EXPECTED OVERNIGHT WITH MID AND HIGH CLOUDS
STREAMING IN OVER AR. TOWARD SUNRISE WEDNESDAY PATCHY MVFR MAY BE
SEEN. ISOLATED CONVECTION MAY DEVELOP OVERNIGHT...ESPECIALLY OVER NW
AR AND SOUTHERN AR...BUT AT THIS TIME...UNCERTAINTY DOES EXIST
CONCERNING LOCATION AND COVERAGE. ONLY USED VCSH OR VCTS AT THIS
TIME. WINDS WILL BE SE TO SW AT 5 TO 10 MPH. (59)

&&

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT
UPPER HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES OVER THE SOUTHEAST U.S. AN UPPER LOW
IS OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST AND AN UPPER TROUGH IS OVER THE UPPER
MIDWEST. THE MIDWEST TROUGH WILL MOVE INTO THE GREAT LAKES WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON AND THE UPPER LOW WILL MOVE INTO THE ROCKIES BY FRIDAY.
SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT BETWEEN THE TWO SYSTEMS IS OVER ARKANSAS AND
THIS PATTERN WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE SHORT TERM.

A COLD FRONT IS IN THE PLAINS AT THIS TIME AND WILL MOVE TO SOUTH
MISSOURI BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND STALL. THE FRONT LIFTS BACK TO
THE NORTH THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...KEEPING ARKANSAS IN THE WARM MOIST
SECTOR. SEVERAL SHORT WAVES WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA DURING THE
SHORT TERM AND BRING PERIODS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. GENERAL
RAINFALL AMOUNTS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BE EXCESSIVE BUT THAT DOES NOT
RULE OUT ISOLATED HEAVY AMOUNTS WITH THUNDERSTORMS. HIGH
TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE 80S. LOWS WILL MAINLY BE IN THE 60S.

&&

.LONG TERM...SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL BE SHIFTING EAST OF THE REGION DURING THE
DAY SATURDAY...FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER WEAK IMPULSE ON SUNDAY/MONDAY. A
STRONGER SYSTEM WILL SHIFT EAST THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES
REGION...USHERING HIGH PRESSURE INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND MIDWEST.
THE WEAKER IMPULSES COMBINED WITH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BEHIND THE
STRONGER NORTHERN SYSTEM WILL PUSH A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY SOUTH
FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND MIDWEST...INTO EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND THE
OZARKS REGION ON SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. THE SLOW MOVEMENT OF THIS
BOUNDARY IN CONJUNCTION WITH PLENTY OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL
RESULT IN SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EACH DAY DURING THE
LONG TERM PERIOD...THOUGH LESSER CHANCES WILL BE SEEN ON MONDAY AS
THE FRONT AND WEAKER SUNDAY IMPULSE BEGIN TO WORK EAST OF THE AREA.

&&

.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...51 / LONG TERM...64











000
FXUS64 KLZK 270546 AAA
AFDLZK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR AVIATION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
1245 AM CDT WED MAY 27 2015

.AVIATION...
OVERALL VFR CEILINGS ARE EXPECTED OVERNIGHT WITH MID AND HIGH CLOUDS
STREAMING IN OVER AR. TOWARD SUNRISE WEDNESDAY PATCHY MVFR MAY BE
SEEN. ISOLATED CONVECTION MAY DEVELOP OVERNIGHT...ESPECIALLY OVER NW
AR AND SOUTHERN AR...BUT AT THIS TIME...UNCERTAINTY DOES EXIST
CONCERNING LOCATION AND COVERAGE. ONLY USED VCSH OR VCTS AT THIS
TIME. WINDS WILL BE SE TO SW AT 5 TO 10 MPH. (59)

&&

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT
UPPER HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES OVER THE SOUTHEAST U.S. AN UPPER LOW
IS OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST AND AN UPPER TROUGH IS OVER THE UPPER
MIDWEST. THE MIDWEST TROUGH WILL MOVE INTO THE GREAT LAKES WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON AND THE UPPER LOW WILL MOVE INTO THE ROCKIES BY FRIDAY.
SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT BETWEEN THE TWO SYSTEMS IS OVER ARKANSAS AND
THIS PATTERN WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE SHORT TERM.

A COLD FRONT IS IN THE PLAINS AT THIS TIME AND WILL MOVE TO SOUTH
MISSOURI BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND STALL. THE FRONT LIFTS BACK TO
THE NORTH THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...KEEPING ARKANSAS IN THE WARM MOIST
SECTOR. SEVERAL SHORT WAVES WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA DURING THE
SHORT TERM AND BRING PERIODS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. GENERAL
RAINFALL AMOUNTS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BE EXCESSIVE BUT THAT DOES NOT
RULE OUT ISOLATED HEAVY AMOUNTS WITH THUNDERSTORMS. HIGH
TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE 80S. LOWS WILL MAINLY BE IN THE 60S.

&&

.LONG TERM...SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL BE SHIFTING EAST OF THE REGION DURING THE
DAY SATURDAY...FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER WEAK IMPULSE ON SUNDAY/MONDAY. A
STRONGER SYSTEM WILL SHIFT EAST THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES
REGION...USHERING HIGH PRESSURE INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND MIDWEST.
THE WEAKER IMPULSES COMBINED WITH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BEHIND THE
STRONGER NORTHERN SYSTEM WILL PUSH A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY SOUTH
FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND MIDWEST...INTO EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND THE
OZARKS REGION ON SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. THE SLOW MOVEMENT OF THIS
BOUNDARY IN CONJUNCTION WITH PLENTY OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL
RESULT IN SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EACH DAY DURING THE
LONG TERM PERIOD...THOUGH LESSER CHANCES WILL BE SEEN ON MONDAY AS
THE FRONT AND WEAKER SUNDAY IMPULSE BEGIN TO WORK EAST OF THE AREA.

&&

.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...51 / LONG TERM...64












000
FXUS64 KLZK 270259 AAA
AFDLZK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR AVIATION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
955 PM CDT TUE MAY 26 2015

.AVIATION...
HIGH/SOME MID CLOUDS WILL BUILD OVER ARKANSAS TONIGHT AS
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP TO THE SOUTH AND WEST OF THE
REGION. ISOLATED STORMS MAY AFFECT KHRO AND KLLQ...BUT IT SHOULD
REMAIN DRY ELSEWHERE. PATCHY FOG/BRIEF MVFR CONDITIONS COULD FORM
TOWARD DAWN.

ON WEDNESDAY...SCATTERED CUMULUS CLOUDS AT 2500 TO 3500 FEET WILL
BE NOTED. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE
POSSIBLE DURING THE DAY.

WINDS WILL BE SOUTH/SOUTHWEST AT 4 TO 8 MPH TONIGHT...AND 6 TO 12
MPH ON WEDNESDAY. (46)
&&

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT
UPPER HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES OVER THE SOUTHEAST U.S. AN UPPER LOW
IS OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST AND AN UPPER TROUGH IS OVER THE UPPER
MIDWEST. THE MIDWEST TROUGH WILL MOVE INTO THE GREAT LAKES WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON AND THE UPPER LOW WILL MOVE INTO THE ROCKIES BY FRIDAY.
SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT BETWEEN THE TWO SYSTEMS IS OVER ARKANSAS AND
THIS PATTERN WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE SHORT TERM.

A COLD FRONT IS IN THE PLAINS AT THIS TIME AND WILL MOVE TO SOUTH
MISSOURI BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND STALL. THE FRONT LIFTS BACK TO
THE NORTH THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...KEEPING ARKANSAS IN THE WARM MOIST
SECTOR. SEVERAL SHORT WAVES WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA DURING THE
SHORT TERM AND BRING PERIODS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. GENERAL
RAINFALL AMOUNTS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BE EXCESSIVE BUT THAT DOES NOT
RULE OUT ISOLATED HEAVY AMOUNTS WITH THUNDERSTORMS. HIGH
TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE 80S. LOWS WILL MAINLY BE IN THE 60S.

&&

.LONG TERM...SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL BE SHIFTING EAST OF THE REGION DURING THE
DAY SATURDAY...FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER WEAK IMPULSE ON SUNDAY/MONDAY. A
STRONGER SYSTEM WILL SHIFT EAST THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES
REGION...USHERING HIGH PRESSURE INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND MIDWEST.
THE WEAKER IMPULSES COMBINED WITH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BEHIND THE
STRONGER NORTHERN SYSTEM WILL PUSH A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY SOUTH
FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND MIDWEST...INTO EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND THE
OZARKS REGION ON SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. THE SLOW MOVEMENT OF THIS
BOUNDARY IN CONJUNCTION WITH PLENTY OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL
RESULT IN SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EACH DAY DURING THE
LONG TERM PERIOD...THOUGH LESSER CHANCES WILL BE SEEN ON MONDAY AS
THE FRONT AND WEAKER SUNDAY IMPULSE BEGIN TO WORK EAST OF THE AREA.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BATESVILLE AR     66  83  65  84 /  30  40  30  40
CAMDEN AR         69  85  69  86 /  30  40  30  40
HARRISON AR       62  82  64  83 /  40  40  40  50
HOT SPRINGS AR    68  84  68  84 /  30  40  30  40
LITTLE ROCK   AR  68  84  67  86 /  30  40  30  40
MONTICELLO AR     68  85  69  86 /  20  40  30  40
MOUNT IDA AR      67  83  68  84 /  40  40  40  40
MOUNTAIN HOME AR  63  82  64  84 /  40  40  40  40
NEWPORT AR        66  83  66  85 /  30  40  30  40
PINE BLUFF AR     68  85  68  86 /  20  40  30  40
RUSSELLVILLE AR   66  82  66  83 /  40  40  40  40
SEARCY AR         66  83  66  85 /  30  40  30  30
STUTTGART AR      67  84  68  86 /  20  40  30  30
&&

.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...51 / LONG TERM...64









000
FXUS64 KLZK 261934
AFDLZK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
234 PM CDT TUE MAY 26 2015

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT
UPPER HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES OVER THE SOUTHEAST U.S. AN UPPER LOW
IS OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST AND AN UPPER TROUGH IS OVER THE UPPER
MIDWEST. THE MIDWEST TROUGH WILL MOVE INTO THE GREAT LAKES WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON AND THE UPPER LOW WILL MOVE INTO THE ROCKIES BY FRIDAY.
SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT BETWEEN THE TWO SYSTEMS IS OVER ARKANSAS AND
THIS PATTERN WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE SHORT TERM.

A COLD FRONT IS IN THE PLAINS AT THIS TIME AND WILL MOVE TO SOUTH
MISSOURI BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND STALL. THE FRONT LIFTS BACK TO
THE NORTH THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...KEEPING ARKANSAS IN THE WARM MOIST
SECTOR. SEVERAL SHORT WAVES WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA DURING THE
SHORT TERM AND BRING PERIODS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. GENERAL
RAINFALL AMOUNTS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BE EXCESSIVE BUT THAT DOES NOT
RULE OUT ISOLATED HEAVY AMOUNTS WITH THUNDERSTORMS. HIGH
TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE 80S. LOWS WILL MAINLY BE IN THE 60S.

&&

.LONG TERM...SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL BE SHIFTING EAST OF THE REGION DURING THE
DAY SATURDAY...FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER WEAK IMPULSE ON SUNDAY/MONDAY. A
STRONGER SYSTEM WILL SHIFT EAST THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES
REGION...USHERING HIGH PRESSURE INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND MIDWEST.
THE WEAKER IMPULSES COMBINED WITH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BEHIND THE
STRONGER NORTHERN SYSTEM WILL PUSH A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY SOUTH
FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND MIDWEST...INTO EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND THE
OZARKS REGION ON SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. THE SLOW MOVEMENT OF THIS
BOUNDARY IN CONJUNCTION WITH PLENTY OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL
RESULT IN SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EACH DAY DURING THE
LONG TERM PERIOD...THOUGH LESSER CHANCES WILL BE SEEN ON MONDAY AS
THE FRONT AND WEAKER SUNDAY IMPULSE BEGIN TO WORK EAST OF THE AREA.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BATESVILLE AR     66  83  65  84 /  30  40  30  40
CAMDEN AR         69  85  69  86 /  30  40  30  40
HARRISON AR       62  82  64  83 /  40  40  40  50
HOT SPRINGS AR    68  84  68  84 /  30  40  30  40
LITTLE ROCK   AR  68  84  67  86 /  30  40  30  40
MONTICELLO AR     68  85  69  86 /  20  40  30  40
MOUNT IDA AR      67  83  68  84 /  40  40  40  40
MOUNTAIN HOME AR  63  82  64  84 /  40  40  40  40
NEWPORT AR        66  83  66  85 /  30  40  30  40
PINE BLUFF AR     68  85  68  86 /  20  40  30  40
RUSSELLVILLE AR   66  82  66  83 /  40  40  40  40
SEARCY AR         66  83  66  85 /  30  40  30  30
STUTTGART AR      67  84  68  86 /  20  40  30  30
&&

.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...51 / LONG TERM...64





000
FXUS64 KLZK 261934
AFDLZK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
234 PM CDT TUE MAY 26 2015

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT
UPPER HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES OVER THE SOUTHEAST U.S. AN UPPER LOW
IS OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST AND AN UPPER TROUGH IS OVER THE UPPER
MIDWEST. THE MIDWEST TROUGH WILL MOVE INTO THE GREAT LAKES WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON AND THE UPPER LOW WILL MOVE INTO THE ROCKIES BY FRIDAY.
SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT BETWEEN THE TWO SYSTEMS IS OVER ARKANSAS AND
THIS PATTERN WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE SHORT TERM.

A COLD FRONT IS IN THE PLAINS AT THIS TIME AND WILL MOVE TO SOUTH
MISSOURI BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND STALL. THE FRONT LIFTS BACK TO
THE NORTH THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...KEEPING ARKANSAS IN THE WARM MOIST
SECTOR. SEVERAL SHORT WAVES WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA DURING THE
SHORT TERM AND BRING PERIODS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. GENERAL
RAINFALL AMOUNTS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BE EXCESSIVE BUT THAT DOES NOT
RULE OUT ISOLATED HEAVY AMOUNTS WITH THUNDERSTORMS. HIGH
TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE 80S. LOWS WILL MAINLY BE IN THE 60S.

&&

.LONG TERM...SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL BE SHIFTING EAST OF THE REGION DURING THE
DAY SATURDAY...FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER WEAK IMPULSE ON SUNDAY/MONDAY. A
STRONGER SYSTEM WILL SHIFT EAST THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES
REGION...USHERING HIGH PRESSURE INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND MIDWEST.
THE WEAKER IMPULSES COMBINED WITH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BEHIND THE
STRONGER NORTHERN SYSTEM WILL PUSH A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY SOUTH
FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND MIDWEST...INTO EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND THE
OZARKS REGION ON SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. THE SLOW MOVEMENT OF THIS
BOUNDARY IN CONJUNCTION WITH PLENTY OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL
RESULT IN SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EACH DAY DURING THE
LONG TERM PERIOD...THOUGH LESSER CHANCES WILL BE SEEN ON MONDAY AS
THE FRONT AND WEAKER SUNDAY IMPULSE BEGIN TO WORK EAST OF THE AREA.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BATESVILLE AR     66  83  65  84 /  30  40  30  40
CAMDEN AR         69  85  69  86 /  30  40  30  40
HARRISON AR       62  82  64  83 /  40  40  40  50
HOT SPRINGS AR    68  84  68  84 /  30  40  30  40
LITTLE ROCK   AR  68  84  67  86 /  30  40  30  40
MONTICELLO AR     68  85  69  86 /  20  40  30  40
MOUNT IDA AR      67  83  68  84 /  40  40  40  40
MOUNTAIN HOME AR  63  82  64  84 /  40  40  40  40
NEWPORT AR        66  83  66  85 /  30  40  30  40
PINE BLUFF AR     68  85  68  86 /  20  40  30  40
RUSSELLVILLE AR   66  82  66  83 /  40  40  40  40
SEARCY AR         66  83  66  85 /  30  40  30  30
STUTTGART AR      67  84  68  86 /  20  40  30  30
&&

.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...51 / LONG TERM...64






000
FXUS64 KLZK 261809 AAC
AFDLZK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
109 PM CDT TUE MAY 26 2015

.DISCUSSION...

UPDATED FOR THE 18Z AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

&&

.AVIATION...

A FAIRLY EXPANSIVE MVFR DECK REMAINS ACROSS THE STATE THIS MORNING
BUT THIS SHOULD DISSIPATE OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS SUCH THAT ONLY
SCT015-025 BASES WILL REMAIN BY 22Z. VFR CONDITIONS WILL THEN
PREVAIL THROUGH LATE TONIGHT BEFORE ANOTHER ROUND OF CONVECTION
GETS GOING ACROSS OKLAHOMA AND MOVES EASTWARD INTO ARKANSAS.
CONTINUED WITH THE MENTION OF PROB30 AT KHRO AND KBPK. THIS
THUNDERSTORM COMPLEX MAY SPREAD FAR ENOUGH SOUTH TO AFFECT
KHOT...KADF...AND POSSIBLY EVEN KLIT. HOWEVER CONFIDENCE IN THIS
IS NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO INCLUDE EVEN A PROB30 FOR THUNDER AT THOSE
SITES AT THIS TIME.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1123 AM CDT TUE MAY 26 2015/

UPDATE...
CLOUD COVER IS DISSIPATING SOMEWHAT IN MOST AREAS OF ARKANSAS.
ADJUSTED CLOUD COVER AND POPS FOR THIS AFTERNOON. AS THE CLOUDS
DIMINISH...HEATING WILL DESTABILIZE THE ATMOSPHERE AND A SHORT
WAVE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA LATE THIS AFTERNOON. THIS SHOULD BE
ENOUGH TO KEEP THE SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN
FOR THE AFTERNOON.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 657 AM CDT TUE MAY 26 2015/

AVIATION...26/12Z TAF CYCLE

EXPECT MVFR CIGS TO PREVAIL THRU THE MID TO LATE MRNG HRS ACRS THE
AREA. INCRSD MIXING WL ALLOW FOR THESE CIGS TO LIFT TO VFR CONDS
BY MIDDAY. CANNOT RULE OUT SOME SCTD CONVECTION LATER TNGT OVR
PARTS OF THE AREA. PLACED PROB30 GROUPS UP NORTH FOR NOW DUE TO
LOW CONFIDENCE WITH OVERALL COVERAGE. /44/

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 406 AM CDT TUE MAY 26 2015/

SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT

STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MOVED THROUGH THE STATE DURING THE
EVENING AND OVERNIGHT HOURS WITH CONDITIONS TAPERING OFF JUST BEFORE
MIDNIGHT. THE BULK OF THE HEAVY RAIN HAS PUSHED EAST OF THE STATE
WITH ONLY SOME LINGERING SHOWERS ACROSS SOUTHEAST ARKANSAS. THIS
PART OF THE STATE...HAS NOT SEEN NEARLY AS MUCH RAINFALL AS THE
WESTERN PORTION OF THE STATE...AND THEREFORE FEEL CONFIDENT THIS
ADDITIONAL RAIN WILL NOT LEAD TO ANY FLASH FLOODING. AS A
RESULT...THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH HAS BEEN CANCELED A BIT EARLY.

THIS MORNING...LOW CLOUDS HAVE BEGUN TO MOVE INTO THE STATE...BUT A
DECREASING TREND IN THE CLOUDS SHOULD BE SEEN THROUGH THE DAY. THIS
WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO WARM INTO THE UPPER 70S AND LOWER 80S
TODAY. DID KEEP SOME SLIGHT CHANCE POPS IN THE FORECAST TODAY AS A
SHORTWAVE PUSHES TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE STATE...HOWEVER THE
MAJORITY OF THE STATE SHOULD SEE DRY WEATHER ON TUESDAY.

TUESDAY NIGHT...YET ANOTHER SHORTWAVE WILL APPROACH THE STATE FROM
THE WEST AND BRING A CHANCE FOR ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS...MAINLY TO WESTERN ARKANSAS. RAIN CHANCES REMAIN IN
THE FORECAST FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE SHORT TERM WITH THE BEST
CHANCES FOR RAIN ON FRIDAY AS AN UPPER LEVEL WAVE APPROACHES THE
STATE.

LONG TERM...SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY

AN UPR LVL TROF WL BE SLOLY TRANSLATING EWD ACRS THE MID SOUTH THRU
THE PD. MEANWHILE...AN ASSOCD CDFNT WL APCH AR FM THE NW ON SAT AND
EVENTUALLY WORK INTO THE FA SUN AND MON. DUE TO THE SLOW MOVEMENT OF
THE FNTL BNDRY...COMBINED WITH PLENTY OF LOW LVL MOISTURE...SCTD
SHRA/TSRA WL RMN POSSIBLE THRU THE PD. THE GREATEST COVERAGE OF
RAINFALL WL BE SAT AND SUN...WITH LESSER CHCS ON MON AS THE FNT/UPR
TROF EVENTUALLY WORK TO THE E OF THE STATE AS THE DAY PROGRESSES.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BATESVILLE AR     80  66  83  65 /  20  20  40  30
CAMDEN AR         85  69  85  69 /  20  30  40  20
HARRISON AR       79  62  82  64 /  20  30  40  30
HOT SPRINGS AR    83  68  84  68 /  20  30  40  20
LITTLE ROCK   AR  84  68  84  67 /  20  30  40  20
MONTICELLO AR     84  68  85  69 /  20  20  40  20
MOUNT IDA AR      83  67  83  68 /  20  40  40  20
MOUNTAIN HOME AR  80  63  82  64 /  20  30  40  30
NEWPORT AR        81  66  83  66 /  20  20  40  30
PINE BLUFF AR     84  68  85  68 /  20  20  40  20
RUSSELLVILLE AR   81  66  82  66 /  20  30  40  20
SEARCY AR         82  66  83  66 /  20  20  40  20
STUTTGART AR      83  67  84  68 /  20  20  40  20
&&

.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&

$$


AVIATION...64






000
FXUS64 KLZK 261809 AAC
AFDLZK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
109 PM CDT TUE MAY 26 2015

.DISCUSSION...

UPDATED FOR THE 18Z AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

&&

.AVIATION...

A FAIRLY EXPANSIVE MVFR DECK REMAINS ACROSS THE STATE THIS MORNING
BUT THIS SHOULD DISSIPATE OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS SUCH THAT ONLY
SCT015-025 BASES WILL REMAIN BY 22Z. VFR CONDITIONS WILL THEN
PREVAIL THROUGH LATE TONIGHT BEFORE ANOTHER ROUND OF CONVECTION
GETS GOING ACROSS OKLAHOMA AND MOVES EASTWARD INTO ARKANSAS.
CONTINUED WITH THE MENTION OF PROB30 AT KHRO AND KBPK. THIS
THUNDERSTORM COMPLEX MAY SPREAD FAR ENOUGH SOUTH TO AFFECT
KHOT...KADF...AND POSSIBLY EVEN KLIT. HOWEVER CONFIDENCE IN THIS
IS NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO INCLUDE EVEN A PROB30 FOR THUNDER AT THOSE
SITES AT THIS TIME.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1123 AM CDT TUE MAY 26 2015/

UPDATE...
CLOUD COVER IS DISSIPATING SOMEWHAT IN MOST AREAS OF ARKANSAS.
ADJUSTED CLOUD COVER AND POPS FOR THIS AFTERNOON. AS THE CLOUDS
DIMINISH...HEATING WILL DESTABILIZE THE ATMOSPHERE AND A SHORT
WAVE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA LATE THIS AFTERNOON. THIS SHOULD BE
ENOUGH TO KEEP THE SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN
FOR THE AFTERNOON.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 657 AM CDT TUE MAY 26 2015/

AVIATION...26/12Z TAF CYCLE

EXPECT MVFR CIGS TO PREVAIL THRU THE MID TO LATE MRNG HRS ACRS THE
AREA. INCRSD MIXING WL ALLOW FOR THESE CIGS TO LIFT TO VFR CONDS
BY MIDDAY. CANNOT RULE OUT SOME SCTD CONVECTION LATER TNGT OVR
PARTS OF THE AREA. PLACED PROB30 GROUPS UP NORTH FOR NOW DUE TO
LOW CONFIDENCE WITH OVERALL COVERAGE. /44/

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 406 AM CDT TUE MAY 26 2015/

SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT

STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MOVED THROUGH THE STATE DURING THE
EVENING AND OVERNIGHT HOURS WITH CONDITIONS TAPERING OFF JUST BEFORE
MIDNIGHT. THE BULK OF THE HEAVY RAIN HAS PUSHED EAST OF THE STATE
WITH ONLY SOME LINGERING SHOWERS ACROSS SOUTHEAST ARKANSAS. THIS
PART OF THE STATE...HAS NOT SEEN NEARLY AS MUCH RAINFALL AS THE
WESTERN PORTION OF THE STATE...AND THEREFORE FEEL CONFIDENT THIS
ADDITIONAL RAIN WILL NOT LEAD TO ANY FLASH FLOODING. AS A
RESULT...THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH HAS BEEN CANCELED A BIT EARLY.

THIS MORNING...LOW CLOUDS HAVE BEGUN TO MOVE INTO THE STATE...BUT A
DECREASING TREND IN THE CLOUDS SHOULD BE SEEN THROUGH THE DAY. THIS
WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO WARM INTO THE UPPER 70S AND LOWER 80S
TODAY. DID KEEP SOME SLIGHT CHANCE POPS IN THE FORECAST TODAY AS A
SHORTWAVE PUSHES TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE STATE...HOWEVER THE
MAJORITY OF THE STATE SHOULD SEE DRY WEATHER ON TUESDAY.

TUESDAY NIGHT...YET ANOTHER SHORTWAVE WILL APPROACH THE STATE FROM
THE WEST AND BRING A CHANCE FOR ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS...MAINLY TO WESTERN ARKANSAS. RAIN CHANCES REMAIN IN
THE FORECAST FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE SHORT TERM WITH THE BEST
CHANCES FOR RAIN ON FRIDAY AS AN UPPER LEVEL WAVE APPROACHES THE
STATE.

LONG TERM...SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY

AN UPR LVL TROF WL BE SLOLY TRANSLATING EWD ACRS THE MID SOUTH THRU
THE PD. MEANWHILE...AN ASSOCD CDFNT WL APCH AR FM THE NW ON SAT AND
EVENTUALLY WORK INTO THE FA SUN AND MON. DUE TO THE SLOW MOVEMENT OF
THE FNTL BNDRY...COMBINED WITH PLENTY OF LOW LVL MOISTURE...SCTD
SHRA/TSRA WL RMN POSSIBLE THRU THE PD. THE GREATEST COVERAGE OF
RAINFALL WL BE SAT AND SUN...WITH LESSER CHCS ON MON AS THE FNT/UPR
TROF EVENTUALLY WORK TO THE E OF THE STATE AS THE DAY PROGRESSES.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BATESVILLE AR     80  66  83  65 /  20  20  40  30
CAMDEN AR         85  69  85  69 /  20  30  40  20
HARRISON AR       79  62  82  64 /  20  30  40  30
HOT SPRINGS AR    83  68  84  68 /  20  30  40  20
LITTLE ROCK   AR  84  68  84  67 /  20  30  40  20
MONTICELLO AR     84  68  85  69 /  20  20  40  20
MOUNT IDA AR      83  67  83  68 /  20  40  40  20
MOUNTAIN HOME AR  80  63  82  64 /  20  30  40  30
NEWPORT AR        81  66  83  66 /  20  20  40  30
PINE BLUFF AR     84  68  85  68 /  20  20  40  20
RUSSELLVILLE AR   81  66  82  66 /  20  30  40  20
SEARCY AR         82  66  83  66 /  20  20  40  20
STUTTGART AR      83  67  84  68 /  20  20  40  20
&&

.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&

$$


AVIATION...64





000
FXUS64 KLZK 261623
AFDLZK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
1123 AM CDT TUE MAY 26 2015

.UPDATE...
CLOUD COVER IS DISSIPATING SOMEWHAT IN MOST AREAS OF ARKANSAS.
ADJUSTED CLOUD COVER AND POPS FOR THIS AFTERNOON. AS THE CLOUDS
DIMINISH...HEATING WILL DESTABILIZE THE ATMOSPHERE AND A SHORT
WAVE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA LATE THIS AFTERNOON. THIS SHOULD BE
ENOUGH TO KEEP THE SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN
FOR THE AFTERNOON.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 657 AM CDT TUE MAY 26 2015/

AVIATION...26/12Z TAF CYCLE

EXPECT MVFR CIGS TO PREVAIL THRU THE MID TO LATE MRNG HRS ACRS THE
AREA. INCRSD MIXING WL ALLOW FOR THESE CIGS TO LIFT TO VFR CONDS
BY MIDDAY. CANNOT RULE OUT SOME SCTD CONVECTION LATER TNGT OVR
PARTS OF THE AREA. PLACED PROB30 GROUPS UP NORTH FOR NOW DUE TO
LOW CONFIDENCE WITH OVERALL COVERAGE. /44/

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 406 AM CDT TUE MAY 26 2015/

SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT

STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MOVED THROUGH THE STATE DURING THE
EVENING AND OVERNIGHT HOURS WITH CONDITIONS TAPERING OFF JUST BEFORE
MIDNIGHT. THE BULK OF THE HEAVY RAIN HAS PUSHED EAST OF THE STATE
WITH ONLY SOME LINGERING SHOWERS ACROSS SOUTHEAST ARKANSAS. THIS
PART OF THE STATE...HAS NOT SEEN NEARLY AS MUCH RAINFALL AS THE
WESTERN PORTION OF THE STATE...AND THEREFORE FEEL CONFIDENT THIS
ADDITIONAL RAIN WILL NOT LEAD TO ANY FLASH FLOODING. AS A
RESULT...THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH HAS BEEN CANCELED A BIT EARLY.

THIS MORNING...LOW CLOUDS HAVE BEGUN TO MOVE INTO THE STATE...BUT A
DECREASING TREND IN THE CLOUDS SHOULD BE SEEN THROUGH THE DAY. THIS
WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO WARM INTO THE UPPER 70S AND LOWER 80S
TODAY. DID KEEP SOME SLIGHT CHANCE POPS IN THE FORECAST TODAY AS A
SHORTWAVE PUSHES TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE STATE...HOWEVER THE
MAJORITY OF THE STATE SHOULD SEE DRY WEATHER ON TUESDAY.

TUESDAY NIGHT...YET ANOTHER SHORTWAVE WILL APPROACH THE STATE FROM
THE WEST AND BRING A CHANCE FOR ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS...MAINLY TO WESTERN ARKANSAS. RAIN CHANCES REMAIN IN
THE FORECAST FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE SHORT TERM WITH THE BEST
CHANCES FOR RAIN ON FRIDAY AS AN UPPER LEVEL WAVE APPROACHES THE
STATE.

LONG TERM...SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY

AN UPR LVL TROF WL BE SLOLY TRANSLATING EWD ACRS THE MID SOUTH THRU
THE PD. MEANWHILE...AN ASSOCD CDFNT WL APCH AR FM THE NW ON SAT AND
EVENTUALLY WORK INTO THE FA SUN AND MON. DUE TO THE SLOW MOVEMENT OF
THE FNTL BNDRY...COMBINED WITH PLENTY OF LOW LVL MOISTURE...SCTD
SHRA/TSRA WL RMN POSSIBLE THRU THE PD. THE GREATEST COVERAGE OF
RAINFALL WL BE SAT AND SUN...WITH LESSER CHCS ON MON AS THE FNT/UPR
TROF EVENTUALLY WORK TO THE E OF THE STATE AS THE DAY PROGRESSES.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BATESVILLE AR     80  67  82  65 /  20  20  40  30
CAMDEN AR         85  70  85  67 /  20  30  40  20
HARRISON AR       79  63  81  64 /  20  30  40  30
HOT SPRINGS AR    83  70  85  67 /  20  30  40  20
LITTLE ROCK   AR  84  69  85  68 /  20  30  40  20
MONTICELLO AR     84  69  86  69 /  20  20  40  20
MOUNT IDA AR      83  68  83  66 /  20  40  40  20
MOUNTAIN HOME AR  80  64  83  63 /  20  30  40  30
NEWPORT AR        81  68  83  66 /  20  20  40  30
PINE BLUFF AR     84  69  85  68 /  20  20  40  20
RUSSELLVILLE AR   81  67  83  65 /  20  30  40  20
SEARCY AR         82  66  84  64 /  20  20  40  20
STUTTGART AR      83  69  85  68 /  20  20  40  20
&&

.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&

$$

51






000
FXUS64 KLZK 261623
AFDLZK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
1123 AM CDT TUE MAY 26 2015

.UPDATE...
CLOUD COVER IS DISSIPATING SOMEWHAT IN MOST AREAS OF ARKANSAS.
ADJUSTED CLOUD COVER AND POPS FOR THIS AFTERNOON. AS THE CLOUDS
DIMINISH...HEATING WILL DESTABILIZE THE ATMOSPHERE AND A SHORT
WAVE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA LATE THIS AFTERNOON. THIS SHOULD BE
ENOUGH TO KEEP THE SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN
FOR THE AFTERNOON.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 657 AM CDT TUE MAY 26 2015/

AVIATION...26/12Z TAF CYCLE

EXPECT MVFR CIGS TO PREVAIL THRU THE MID TO LATE MRNG HRS ACRS THE
AREA. INCRSD MIXING WL ALLOW FOR THESE CIGS TO LIFT TO VFR CONDS
BY MIDDAY. CANNOT RULE OUT SOME SCTD CONVECTION LATER TNGT OVR
PARTS OF THE AREA. PLACED PROB30 GROUPS UP NORTH FOR NOW DUE TO
LOW CONFIDENCE WITH OVERALL COVERAGE. /44/

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 406 AM CDT TUE MAY 26 2015/

SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT

STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MOVED THROUGH THE STATE DURING THE
EVENING AND OVERNIGHT HOURS WITH CONDITIONS TAPERING OFF JUST BEFORE
MIDNIGHT. THE BULK OF THE HEAVY RAIN HAS PUSHED EAST OF THE STATE
WITH ONLY SOME LINGERING SHOWERS ACROSS SOUTHEAST ARKANSAS. THIS
PART OF THE STATE...HAS NOT SEEN NEARLY AS MUCH RAINFALL AS THE
WESTERN PORTION OF THE STATE...AND THEREFORE FEEL CONFIDENT THIS
ADDITIONAL RAIN WILL NOT LEAD TO ANY FLASH FLOODING. AS A
RESULT...THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH HAS BEEN CANCELED A BIT EARLY.

THIS MORNING...LOW CLOUDS HAVE BEGUN TO MOVE INTO THE STATE...BUT A
DECREASING TREND IN THE CLOUDS SHOULD BE SEEN THROUGH THE DAY. THIS
WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO WARM INTO THE UPPER 70S AND LOWER 80S
TODAY. DID KEEP SOME SLIGHT CHANCE POPS IN THE FORECAST TODAY AS A
SHORTWAVE PUSHES TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE STATE...HOWEVER THE
MAJORITY OF THE STATE SHOULD SEE DRY WEATHER ON TUESDAY.

TUESDAY NIGHT...YET ANOTHER SHORTWAVE WILL APPROACH THE STATE FROM
THE WEST AND BRING A CHANCE FOR ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS...MAINLY TO WESTERN ARKANSAS. RAIN CHANCES REMAIN IN
THE FORECAST FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE SHORT TERM WITH THE BEST
CHANCES FOR RAIN ON FRIDAY AS AN UPPER LEVEL WAVE APPROACHES THE
STATE.

LONG TERM...SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY

AN UPR LVL TROF WL BE SLOLY TRANSLATING EWD ACRS THE MID SOUTH THRU
THE PD. MEANWHILE...AN ASSOCD CDFNT WL APCH AR FM THE NW ON SAT AND
EVENTUALLY WORK INTO THE FA SUN AND MON. DUE TO THE SLOW MOVEMENT OF
THE FNTL BNDRY...COMBINED WITH PLENTY OF LOW LVL MOISTURE...SCTD
SHRA/TSRA WL RMN POSSIBLE THRU THE PD. THE GREATEST COVERAGE OF
RAINFALL WL BE SAT AND SUN...WITH LESSER CHCS ON MON AS THE FNT/UPR
TROF EVENTUALLY WORK TO THE E OF THE STATE AS THE DAY PROGRESSES.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BATESVILLE AR     80  67  82  65 /  20  20  40  30
CAMDEN AR         85  70  85  67 /  20  30  40  20
HARRISON AR       79  63  81  64 /  20  30  40  30
HOT SPRINGS AR    83  70  85  67 /  20  30  40  20
LITTLE ROCK   AR  84  69  85  68 /  20  30  40  20
MONTICELLO AR     84  69  86  69 /  20  20  40  20
MOUNT IDA AR      83  68  83  66 /  20  40  40  20
MOUNTAIN HOME AR  80  64  83  63 /  20  30  40  30
NEWPORT AR        81  68  83  66 /  20  20  40  30
PINE BLUFF AR     84  69  85  68 /  20  20  40  20
RUSSELLVILLE AR   81  67  83  65 /  20  30  40  20
SEARCY AR         82  66  84  64 /  20  20  40  20
STUTTGART AR      83  69  85  68 /  20  20  40  20
&&

.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&

$$

51





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