Home > Products > State Listing > Arkansas Data
Latest:
 AFDLZK |
  [top]

000
FXUS64 KLZK 160530 AAB
AFDLZK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
1230 AM CDT WED APR 16 2014

.DISCUSSION...

UPDATED FOR THE 06Z AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

&&

.AVIATION...

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE PERIOD. WINDS WILL
BECOMING INCREASINGLY SOUTHEASTERLY IN RESPONSE TO LOW PRESSURE
STRENGTHENING IN THE CENTRAL PLAINS. MAY SEE SOME GUSTS TO 18-20KT
IN THE NORTH AFTER 15Z OR THEREABOUTS AND HAVE THIS IN THE
FORECAST. OCCASIONAL GUSTS TO 15-16KT MAY OCCUR AS FAR SOUTH AS
KLIT AND KHOT...BUT THINK THAT IS ABOUT AS FAR SOUTH AS ANY GUSTY
WINDS WILL EXTEND DURING THE DAY. OTHERWISE...THE ONLY CLOUDS IN
SIGHT ARE GOING TO BE FEW-SCT250 THROUGH MID MORNING...WITH CLEAR
SKIES EXPECTED AFTERWARD.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 937 PM CDT TUE APR 15 2014/

DISCUSSION...

ONLY MINOR CHANGES TO THE FORECAST THIS EVENING...MAINLY TO HAVE
THE CURRENT FORECAST REFLECT CURRENT TEMP/DEWPOINT TRENDS. WILL
LEAVE FROST/FREEZE HEADLINES AS IS.

FORECASTED LOW TEMPERATURES STILL LOOK WITHIN REASON. ANOTHER
FREEZE WILL LIKELY BE SEEN ACROSS NORTH/NORTHEASTERN AREAS.
ELSEWHERE...LOWER TO MID 30S STILL LOOK GOOD WITH BETTER CHANCES
FOR FROST BY WEDNESDAY MORNING AS WINDS WILL BE LIGHTER THAN THIS
MORNING.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 305 PM CDT TUE APR 15 2014/

SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT

AN UPPER TROUGH IS OVER THE EAST COAST WITH NORTHWEST FLOW OVER
THE REST OF THE COUNTRY. AN UPPER TROUGH WILL DEVELOP IN THE
PLAINS WEDNESDAY AND DEEPEN THURSDAY. BY FRIDAY...THE TROUGH MOVES
INTO THE APPALACHIANS AND AN UPPER RIDGE MOVES TO THE PLAINS.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE OVER THE CENTRAL U.S. THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
THE HIGH WILL MOVE EAST OF THE AREA THURSDAY AND A SHORT WAVE WILL
APPROACH ARKANSAS THURSDAY NIGHT AND MOVE THROUGH FRIDAY. RAIN
CHANCES WILL INCREASE THURSDAY AND CONTINUE INTO FRIDAY. THERE
WILL BE A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. RAIN CHANCES WILL
END IN THE EAST FRIDAY AFTERNOON AS A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH.
WARMING TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.

LONG TERM...SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE OVER THE REGION INITIALLY...BUT NEARLY ZONAL
FLOW WILL BRING THE NEXT STORM SYSTEM LATE SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY.
CLOUDS WILL INCREASE WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE
FORECAST. AFTER SOME LEFTOVER PRECIPITATION EARLY MONDAY...LOOKS
LIKE CLEARING LATER IN THE DAY. TUESDAY LOOKS FAIR AT THIS POINT. WE
WILL BE DEALING WITH PACIFIC AIR BEHIND THE SYSTEM...SO COOLING IS
NOT ANTICIPATED. IN FACT...AT/ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED
THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BATESVILLE AR     61  38  68  47 /   0   0  10  40
CAMDEN AR         65  40  70  49 /   0   0  10  30
HARRISON AR       62  37  65  44 /   0   0  20  40
HOT SPRINGS AR    64  40  68  49 /   0   0  10  30
LITTLE ROCK   AR  63  40  68  49 /   0   0  10  40
MONTICELLO AR     64  40  70  51 /   0   0  10  30
MOUNT IDA AR      64  40  67  47 /   0   0  10  30
MOUNTAIN HOME AR  62  37  66  44 /   0   0  20  40
NEWPORT AR        61  39  68  48 /   0   0  10  40
PINE BLUFF AR     63  41  69  50 /   0   0  10  40
RUSSELLVILLE AR   63  39  67  46 /   0   0  20  30
SEARCY AR         61  38  68  49 /   0   0  10  40
STUTTGART AR      62  40  69  50 /   0   0  10  40
&&

.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FREEZE WARNING UNTIL 8 AM CDT THIS MORNING FOR BAXTER-BOONE-
CLEBURNE-FULTON-INDEPENDENCE-IZARD-JACKSON-MARION-NEWTON-SEARCY-
SHARP-STONE-VAN BUREN-WHITE-WOODRUFF.


FROST ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM CDT THIS MORNING FOR ARKANSAS-BRADLEY-
CALHOUN-CLARK-CLEVELAND-CONWAY-DALLAS-DESHA-DREW-FAULKNER-
GARLAND-GRANT-HOT SPRING-JEFFERSON-JOHNSON-LINCOLN-LOGAN-LONOKE-
MONROE-MONTGOMERY-OUACHITA-PERRY-PIKE-POLK-POPE-PRAIRIE-PULASKI-
SALINE-SCOTT-YELL.

&&

$$


AVIATION...64








000
FXUS64 KLZK 160237 AAA
AFDLZK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
937 PM CDT TUE APR 15 2014

.DISCUSSION...

ONLY MINOR CHANGES TO THE FORECAST THIS EVENING...MAINLY TO HAVE
THE CURRENT FORECAST REFLECT CURRENT TEMP/DEWPOINT TRENDS. WILL
LEAVE FROST/FREEZE HEADLINES AS IS.

FORECASTED LOW TEMPERATURES STILL LOOK WITHIN REASON. ANOTHER
FREEZE WILL LIKELY BE SEEN ACROSS NORTH/NORTHEASTERN AREAS.
ELSEWHERE...LOWER TO MID 30S STILL LOOK GOOD WITH BETTER CHANCES
FOR FROST BY WEDNESDAY MORNING AS WINDS WILL BE LIGHTER THAN THIS
MORNING.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 630 PM CDT TUE APR 15 2014/

AVIATION...

OVERALL VFR FLIGHT CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
SOME HIGH CLOUDS WILL FILTER IN OVER AR. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT FROM
THE N TO NE...THEN BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE OVERNIGHT. WEDNESDAY
MORNING WINDS WILL BECOME SE AT 5 TO 10 MPH...THEN INCREASE DURING
THE DAY WEDNESDAY...BECOMING 8 TO 18 MPH. THE HIGHEST WINDS WILL BE
SEEN OVER NORTHWESTERN AR. (59)

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 305 PM CDT TUE APR 15 2014/

SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT

AN UPPER TROUGH IS OVER THE EAST COAST WITH NORTHWEST FLOW OVER
THE REST OF THE COUNTRY. AN UPPER TROUGH WILL DEVELOP IN THE
PLAINS WEDNESDAY AND DEEPEN THURSDAY. BY FRIDAY...THE TROUGH MOVES
INTO THE APPALACHIANS AND AN UPPER RIDGE MOVES TO THE PLAINS.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE OVER THE CENTRAL U.S. THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
THE HIGH WILL MOVE EAST OF THE AREA THURSDAY AND A SHORT WAVE WILL
APPROACH ARKANSAS THURSDAY NIGHT AND MOVE THROUGH FRIDAY. RAIN
CHANCES WILL INCREASE THURSDAY AND CONTINUE INTO FRIDAY. THERE
WILL BE A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. RAIN CHANCES WILL
END IN THE EAST FRIDAY AFTERNOON AS A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH.
WARMING TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.

LONG TERM...SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE OVER THE REGION INITIALLY...BUT NEARLY ZONAL
FLOW WILL BRING THE NEXT STORM SYSTEM LATE SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY.
CLOUDS WILL INCREASE WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE
FORECAST. AFTER SOME LEFTOVER PRECIPITATION EARLY MONDAY...LOOKS
LIKE CLEARING LATER IN THE DAY. TUESDAY LOOKS FAIR AT THIS POINT. WE
WILL BE DEALING WITH PACIFIC AIR BEHIND THE SYSTEM...SO COOLING IS
NOT ANTICIPATED. IN FACT...AT/ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED
THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BATESVILLE AR     31  61  38  68 /   0   0   0  10
CAMDEN AR         32  65  40  70 /   0   0   0  10
HARRISON AR       31  62  37  65 /   0   0   0  20
HOT SPRINGS AR    33  64  40  68 /   0   0   0  10
LITTLE ROCK   AR  34  63  40  68 /   0   0   0  10
MONTICELLO AR     33  64  40  70 /   0   0   0  10
MOUNT IDA AR      33  64  40  67 /   0   0   0  10
MOUNTAIN HOME AR  31  62  37  66 /   0   0   0  20
NEWPORT AR        31  61  39  68 /   0   0   0  10
PINE BLUFF AR     34  63  41  69 /   0   0   0  10
RUSSELLVILLE AR   33  63  39  67 /   0   0   0  20
SEARCY AR         31  61  38  68 /   0   0   0  10
STUTTGART AR      34  62  40  69 /   0   0   0  10
&&

.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FREEZE WARNING FROM 1 AM TO 8 AM CDT WEDNESDAY FOR BAXTER-BOONE-
CLEBURNE-FULTON-INDEPENDENCE-IZARD-JACKSON-MARION-NEWTON-SEARCY-
SHARP-STONE-VAN BUREN-WHITE-WOODRUFF.


FROST ADVISORY FROM 1 AM TO 8 AM CDT WEDNESDAY FOR ARKANSAS-
BRADLEY-CALHOUN-CLARK-CLEVELAND-CONWAY-DALLAS-DESHA-DREW-
FAULKNER-GARLAND-GRANT-HOT SPRING-JEFFERSON-JOHNSON-LINCOLN-
LOGAN-LONOKE-MONROE-MONTGOMERY-OUACHITA-PERRY-PIKE-POLK-POPE-
PRAIRIE-PULASKI-SALINE-SCOTT-YELL.

&&

$$

226






000
FXUS64 KLZK 152327 AAA
AFDLZK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATE FOR AVIATION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
630 PM CDT TUE APR 15 2014

.AVIATION...

OVERALL VFR FLIGHT CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
SOME HIGH CLOUDS WILL FILTER IN OVER AR. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT FROM
THE N TO NE...THEN BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE OVERNIGHT. WEDNESDAY
MORNING WINDS WILL BECOME SE AT 5 TO 10 MPH...THEN INCREASE DURING
THE DAY WEDNESDAY...BECOMING 8 TO 18 MPH. THE HIGHEST WINDS WILL BE
SEEN OVER NORTHWESTERN AR. (59)

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 305 PM CDT TUE APR 15 2014/

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT

AN UPPER TROUGH IS OVER THE EAST COAST WITH NORTHWEST FLOW OVER
THE REST OF THE COUNTRY. AN UPPER TROUGH WILL DEVELOP IN THE
PLAINS WEDNESDAY AND DEEPEN THURSDAY. BY FRIDAY...THE TROUGH MOVES
INTO THE APPALACHIANS AND AN UPPER RIDGE MOVES TO THE PLAINS.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE OVER THE CENTRAL U.S. THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
THE HIGH WILL MOVE EAST OF THE AREA THURSDAY AND A SHORT WAVE WILL
APPROACH ARKANSAS THURSDAY NIGHT AND MOVE THROUGH FRIDAY. RAIN
CHANCES WILL INCREASE THURSDAY AND CONTINUE INTO FRIDAY. THERE
WILL BE A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. RAIN CHANCES WILL
END IN THE EAST FRIDAY AFTERNOON AS A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH.
WARMING TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM...SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE OVER THE REGION INITIALLY...BUT NEARLY ZONAL
FLOW WILL BRING THE NEXT STORM SYSTEM LATE SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY.
CLOUDS WILL INCREASE WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE
FORECAST. AFTER SOME LEFTOVER PRECIPITATION EARLY MONDAY...LOOKS
LIKE CLEARING LATER IN THE DAY. TUESDAY LOOKS FAIR AT THIS POINT. WE
WILL BE DEALING WITH PACIFIC AIR BEHIND THE SYSTEM...SO COOLING IS
NOT ANTICIPATED. IN FACT...AT/ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED
THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BATESVILLE AR     31  61  38  68 /   0   0   0  10
CAMDEN AR         32  65  40  70 /   0   0   0  10
HARRISON AR       31  62  37  65 /   0   0   0  20
HOT SPRINGS AR    33  64  40  68 /   0   0   0  10
LITTLE ROCK   AR  34  63  40  68 /   0   0   0  10
MONTICELLO AR     33  64  40  70 /   0   0   0  10
MOUNT IDA AR      33  64  40  67 /   0   0   0  10
MOUNTAIN HOME AR  31  62  37  66 /   0   0   0  20
NEWPORT AR        31  61  39  68 /   0   0   0  10
PINE BLUFF AR     34  63  41  69 /   0   0   0  10
RUSSELLVILLE AR   33  63  39  67 /   0   0   0  20
SEARCY AR         31  61  38  68 /   0   0   0  10
STUTTGART AR      34  62  40  69 /   0   0   0  10
&&

.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FREEZE WARNING FROM 1 AM TO 8 AM CDT WEDNESDAY FOR BAXTER-BOONE-
CLEBURNE-FULTON-INDEPENDENCE-IZARD-JACKSON-MARION-NEWTON-SEARCY-
SHARP-STONE-VAN BUREN-WHITE-WOODRUFF.


FROST ADVISORY FROM 1 AM TO 8 AM CDT WEDNESDAY FOR ARKANSAS-
BRADLEY-CALHOUN-CLARK-CLEVELAND-CONWAY-DALLAS-DESHA-DREW-
FAULKNER-GARLAND-GRANT-HOT SPRING-JEFFERSON-JOHNSON-LINCOLN-
LOGAN-LONOKE-MONROE-MONTGOMERY-OUACHITA-PERRY-PIKE-POLK-POPE-
PRAIRIE-PULASKI-SALINE-SCOTT-YELL.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...51 / LONG TERM...46









000
FXUS64 KLZK 152005
AFDLZK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
305 PM CDT TUE APR 15 2014

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT

AN UPPER TROUGH IS OVER THE EAST COAST WITH NORTHWEST FLOW OVER
THE REST OF THE COUNTRY. AN UPPER TROUGH WILL DEVELOP IN THE
PLAINS WEDNESDAY AND DEEPEN THURSDAY. BY FRIDAY...THE TROUGH MOVES
INTO THE APPALACHIANS AND AN UPPER RIDGE MOVES TO THE PLAINS.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE OVER THE CENTRAL U.S. THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
THE HIGH WILL MOVE EAST OF THE AREA THURSDAY AND A SHORT WAVE WILL
APPROACH ARKANSAS THURSDAY NIGHT AND MOVE THROUGH FRIDAY. RAIN
CHANCES WILL INCREASE THURSDAY AND CONTINUE INTO FRIDAY. THERE
WILL BE A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. RAIN CHANCES WILL
END IN THE EAST FRIDAY AFTERNOON AS A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH.
WARMING TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM...SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE OVER THE REGION INITIALLY...BUT NEARLY ZONAL
FLOW WILL BRING THE NEXT STORM SYSTEM LATE SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY.
CLOUDS WILL INCREASE WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE
FORECAST. AFTER SOME LEFTOVER PRECIPITATION EARLY MONDAY...LOOKS
LIKE CLEARING LATER IN THE DAY. TUESDAY LOOKS FAIR AT THIS POINT. WE
WILL BE DEALING WITH PACIFIC AIR BEHIND THE SYSTEM...SO COOLING IS
NOT ANTICIPATED. IN FACT...AT/ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED
THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BATESVILLE AR     31  61  38  68 /   0   0   0  10
CAMDEN AR         32  65  40  70 /   0   0   0  10
HARRISON AR       31  62  37  65 /   0   0   0  20
HOT SPRINGS AR    33  64  40  68 /   0   0   0  10
LITTLE ROCK   AR  34  63  40  68 /   0   0   0  10
MONTICELLO AR     33  64  40  70 /   0   0   0  10
MOUNT IDA AR      33  64  40  67 /   0   0   0  10
MOUNTAIN HOME AR  31  62  37  66 /   0   0   0  20
NEWPORT AR        31  61  39  68 /   0   0   0  10
PINE BLUFF AR     34  63  41  69 /   0   0   0  10
RUSSELLVILLE AR   33  63  39  67 /   0   0   0  20
SEARCY AR         31  61  38  68 /   0   0   0  10
STUTTGART AR      34  62  40  69 /   0   0   0  10
&&

.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FREEZE WARNING FROM 1 AM TO 8 AM CDT WEDNESDAY FOR BAXTER-BOONE-
CLEBURNE-FULTON-INDEPENDENCE-IZARD-JACKSON-MARION-NEWTON-SEARCY-
SHARP-STONE-VAN BUREN-WHITE-WOODRUFF.


FROST ADVISORY FROM 1 AM TO 8 AM CDT WEDNESDAY FOR ARKANSAS-
BRADLEY-CALHOUN-CLARK-CLEVELAND-CONWAY-DALLAS-DESHA-DREW-
FAULKNER-GARLAND-GRANT-HOT SPRING-JEFFERSON-JOHNSON-LINCOLN-
LOGAN-LONOKE-MONROE-MONTGOMERY-OUACHITA-PERRY-PIKE-POLK-POPE-
PRAIRIE-PULASKI-SALINE-SCOTT-YELL.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...51 / LONG TERM...46






000
FXUS64 KLZK 151910 AAA
AFDLZK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR AVIATION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
205 PM CDT TUE APR 15 2014

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL HOLD THROUGH AT LEAST WEDNESDAY MORNING. OTHER
THAN A FEW CUMULUS CLOUDS AT 4000 TO 5000 FEET THIS AFTERNOON...IT
WILL BE MOSTLY CLEAR THROUGH THE PERIOD.

WINDS WILL VARY FROM NORTH TO WEST AT 5 TO 10 MPH THIS AFTERNOON.
WINDS TONIGHT WILL BE LIGHT SOUTHEAST. WINDS WEDNESDAY MORNING WILL
BE SOUTHEAST AT 8 TO 14 MPH...WITH SOME GUSTS IN NORTHERN/WESTERN
ARKANSAS TO 16 TO 22 MPH. (46)
&&

.UPDATE...
FREEZE WARNING HAS EXPIRED FOR THIS MORNING. UPDATED FORECAST
ACCORDINGLY. ADJUSTED TEMPERATURES BASED ON CURRENT DATA AND
TRENDS. SUNNY SKIES WILL CONTINUE WITH HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE
STATE.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 404 AM CDT TUE APR 15 2014/

SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT
MEAN TEMPERATURES WILL RISE DURING THIS PERIOD. TEMPERATURES WILL
STILL BE WELL BELOW NORMAL EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING...AND APPROPRIATE
HEADLINES HAVE BEEN ISSUED FOR FROST/FREEZE CONDITIONS. GIVEN THE
EXPECTED LIGHT NEAR SURFACE WIND FLOW...SHOULD HAVE MORE AREAS OF
FROST EARLY WEDNESDAY THAN WHAT WAS PRODUCED TONIGHT.

NEXT CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION APPEARS AT THE END OF THE WEEK. LATE
THURSDAY...SHORT WAVE ENERGY IS EXPECTED TO APPROACH THE
MID-SOUTH SOUTH...ALONG WITH AN ASSOCIATED SURFACE REFLECTION.
FORECASTS LAPSE RATES...AVAILABLE MOISTURE...AND WIND FIELDS ALL
APPEAR TO BE MUCH WEAKER THAN THOSE OF THE PREVIOUS SYSTEM THAT
AFFECTED THIS REGION...AND OVERALL CONVECTION THAT IS PRODUCED
SHOULD BE WEAK.

55

LONG TERM...SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY
WEAK UPPER RIDGE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION SATURDAY...BEFORE NEXT
SYSTEM ARRIVES FOR THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEKEND. GUIDANCE IS
DIFFERING ON TIMING...WITH THE GFS THE FASTEST. HAVE LEFT SMALL
CHANCE POPS GOING IN THE FORECAST...UNTIL BETTER CONSISTENCY IS
REACHED.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BATESVILLE AR     56  32  61  38 /   0   0   0  10
CAMDEN AR         60  31  65  39 /   0   0  10  10
HARRISON AR       55  31  62  37 /   0   0   0  10
HOT SPRINGS AR    60  33  63  40 /   0   0  10  10
LITTLE ROCK   AR  58  34  63  40 /   0   0  10  10
MONTICELLO AR     57  33  63  41 /  10   0  10  10
MOUNT IDA AR      60  33  63  40 /   0   0  10  10
MOUNTAIN HOME AR  56  31  62  37 /   0   0   0  10
NEWPORT AR        55  33  62  40 /   0   0   0  10
PINE BLUFF AR     57  34  63  41 /   0   0  10  10
RUSSELLVILLE AR   59  33  64  39 /   0   0  10  10
SEARCY AR         56  33  61  37 /   0   0  10  10
STUTTGART AR      56  34  61  41 /   0   0  10  10
&&

.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FROST ADVISORY FROM 1 AM TO 8 AM CDT WEDNESDAY FOR ARKANSAS-
BRADLEY-CALHOUN-CLARK-CLEVELAND-CONWAY-DALLAS-DESHA-DREW-
FAULKNER-GARLAND-GRANT-HOT SPRING-INDEPENDENCE-JACKSON-JEFFERSON-
JOHNSON-LINCOLN-LOGAN-LONOKE-MONROE-MONTGOMERY-OUACHITA-PERRY-
PIKE-POLK-POPE-PRAIRIE-PULASKI-SALINE-SCOTT-WHITE-WOODRUFF-YELL.


FREEZE WARNING FROM 1 AM TO 8 AM CDT WEDNESDAY FOR BAXTER-BOONE-
CLEBURNE-FULTON-IZARD-MARION-NEWTON-SEARCY-SHARP-STONE-VAN BUREN.

&&

$$








000
FXUS64 KLZK 151515
AFDLZK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
1015 AM CDT TUE APR 15 2014

.UPDATE...
FREEZE WARNING HAS EXPIRED FOR THIS MORNING. UPDATED FORECAST
ACCORDINGLY. ADJUSTED TEMPERATURES BASED ON CURRENT DATA AND
TRENDS. SUNNY SKIES WILL CONTINUE WITH HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE
STATE.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 632 AM CDT TUE APR 15 2014/

AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL. LIGHT NORTHWEST WINDS THIS MORNING
WILL INCREASE ABOVE 7 KNOTS BY MID DAY. AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES
EAST OF THE STATE...WINDS WILL BECOME SOUTHEAST AFTER 16/00Z.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 404 AM CDT TUE APR 15 2014/

SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT
MEAN TEMPERATURES WILL RISE DURING THIS PERIOD. TEMPERATURES WILL
STILL BE WELL BELOW NORMAL EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING...AND APPROPRIATE
HEADLINES HAVE BEEN ISSUED FOR FROST/FREEZE CONDITIONS. GIVEN THE EXPECTED
LIGHT NEAR SURFACE WIND FLOW...SHOULD HAVE MORE AREAS OF FROST
EARLY WEDNESDAY THAN WHAT WAS PRODUCED TONIGHT.

NEXT CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION APPEARS AT THE END OF THE WEEK. LATE
THURSDAY...SHORT WAVE ENERGY IS EXPECTED TO APPROACH THE
MID-SOUTH SOUTH...ALONG WITH AN ASSOCIATED SURFACE REFLECTION.
FORECASTS LAPSE RATES...AVAILABLE MOISTURE...AND WIND FIELDS ALL
APPEAR TO BE MUCH WEAKER THAN THOSE OF THE PREVIOUS SYSTEM THAT
AFFECTED THIS REGION...AND OVERALL CONVECTION THAT IS PRODUCED
SHOULD BE WEAK.

55

LONG TERM...SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY
WEAK UPPER RIDGE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION SATURDAY...BEFORE NEXT
SYSTEM ARRIVES FOR THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEKEND. GUIDANCE IS
DIFFERING ON TIMING...WITH THE GFS THE FASTEST. HAVE LEFT SMALL
CHANCE POPS GOING IN THE FORECAST...UNTIL BETTER CONSISTENCY IS
REACHED.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BATESVILLE AR     56  32  61  38 /   0   0   0  10
CAMDEN AR         60  31  65  39 /   0   0  10  10
HARRISON AR       55  31  62  37 /   0   0   0  10
HOT SPRINGS AR    60  33  63  40 /   0   0  10  10
LITTLE ROCK   AR  58  34  63  40 /   0   0  10  10
MONTICELLO AR     57  33  63  41 /  10   0  10  10
MOUNT IDA AR      60  33  63  40 /   0   0  10  10
MOUNTAIN HOME AR  56  31  62  37 /   0   0   0  10
NEWPORT AR        55  33  62  40 /   0   0   0  10
PINE BLUFF AR     57  34  63  41 /   0   0  10  10
RUSSELLVILLE AR   59  33  64  39 /   0   0  10  10
SEARCY AR         56  33  61  37 /   0   0  10  10
STUTTGART AR      56  34  61  41 /   0   0  10  10
&&

.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FROST ADVISORY FROM 1 AM TO 8 AM CDT WEDNESDAY FOR ARKANSAS-
BRADLEY-CALHOUN-CLARK-CLEVELAND-CONWAY-DALLAS-DESHA-DREW-
FAULKNER-GARLAND-GRANT-HOT SPRING-INDEPENDENCE-JACKSON-JEFFERSON-
JOHNSON-LINCOLN-LOGAN-LONOKE-MONROE-MONTGOMERY-OUACHITA-PERRY-
PIKE-POLK-POPE-PRAIRIE-PULASKI-SALINE-SCOTT-WHITE-WOODRUFF-YELL.


FREEZE WARNING FROM 1 AM TO 8 AM CDT WEDNESDAY FOR BAXTER-BOONE-
CLEBURNE-FULTON-IZARD-MARION-NEWTON-SEARCY-SHARP-STONE-VAN BUREN.

&&

$$

51






000
FXUS64 KLZK 151132 AAA
AFDLZK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
632 AM CDT TUE APR 15 2014

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL. LIGHT NORTHWEST WINDS THIS MORNING
WILL INCREASE ABOVE 7 KNOTS BY MID DAY. AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES
EAST OF THE STATE...WINDS WILL BECOME SOUTHEAST AFTER 16/00Z.
&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 404 AM CDT TUE APR 15 2014/

SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT
MEAN TEMPERATURES WILL RISE DURING THIS PERIOD. TEMPERATURES WILL
STILL BE WELL BELOW NORMAL EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING...AND APPROPRIATE
HEADLINES HAVE BEEN ISSUED FOR FROST/FREEZE CONDITIONS. GIVEN THE EXPECTED
LIGHT NEAR SURFACE WIND FLOW...SHOULD HAVE MORE AREAS OF FROST
EARLY WEDNESDAY THAN WHAT WAS PRODUCED TONIGHT.

NEXT CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION APPEARS AT THE END OF THE WEEK. LATE
THURSDAY...SHORT WAVE ENERGY IS EXPECTED TO APPROACH THE
MID-SOUTH SOUTH...ALONG WITH AN ASSOCIATED SURFACE REFLECTION.
FORECASTS LAPSE RATES...AVAILABLE MOISTURE...AND WIND FIELDS ALL
APPEAR TO BE MUCH WEAKER THAN THOSE OF THE PREVIOUS SYSTEM THAT
AFFECTED THIS REGION...AND OVERALL CONVECTION THAT IS PRODUCED
SHOULD BE WEAK.

55

LONG TERM...SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY
WEAK UPPER RIDGE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION SATURDAY...BEFORE NEXT
SYSTEM ARRIVES FOR THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEKEND. GUIDANCE IS
DIFFERING ON TIMING...WITH THE GFS THE FASTEST. HAVE LEFT SMALL
CHANCE POPS GOING IN THE FORECAST...UNTIL BETTER CONSISTENCY IS
REACHED.
&&

.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FROST ADVISORY FROM 1 AM TO 8 AM CDT WEDNESDAY FOR ARKANSAS-
BRADLEY-CALHOUN-CLARK-CLEVELAND-CONWAY-DALLAS-DESHA-DREW-
FAULKNER-GARLAND-GRANT-HOT SPRING-INDEPENDENCE-JACKSON-JEFFERSON-
JOHNSON-LINCOLN-LOGAN-LONOKE-MONROE-MONTGOMERY-OUACHITA-PERRY-
PIKE-POLK-POPE-PRAIRIE-PULASKI-SALINE-SCOTT-WHITE-WOODRUFF-YELL.

FREEZE WARNING UNTIL 10 AM CDT THIS MORNING FOR BAXTER-BOONE-
CLARK-CLEBURNE-CONWAY-FAULKNER-FULTON-GARLAND-HOT SPRING-
INDEPENDENCE-IZARD-JACKSON-JOHNSON-LOGAN-LONOKE-MARION-MONROE-
MONTGOMERY-NEWTON-PERRY-PIKE-POLK-POPE-PRAIRIE-PULASKI-SALINE-
SCOTT-SEARCY-SHARP-STONE-VAN BUREN-WHITE-WOODRUFF-YELL.

FREEZE WARNING FROM 1 AM TO 8 AM CDT WEDNESDAY FOR BAXTER-BOONE-
CLEBURNE-FULTON-IZARD-MARION-NEWTON-SEARCY-SHARP-STONE-VAN BUREN.

FROST ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM CDT THIS MORNING FOR ARKANSAS-BRADLEY-
CALHOUN-CLEVELAND-DALLAS-DESHA-DREW-GRANT-JEFFERSON-LINCOLN-
OUACHITA.
&&

$$

AVIATION...58





000
FXUS64 KLZK 150904
AFDLZK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
404 AM CDT TUE APR 15 2014

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT
MEAN TEMPERATURES WILL RISE DURING THIS PERIOD. TEMPERATURES WILL
STILL BE WELL BELOW NORMAL EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING...AND APPROPRIATE
HEADLINES HAVE BEEN ISSUED FOR FROST/FREEZE CONDITIONS. GIVEN THE EXPECTED
LIGHT NEAR SURFACE WIND FLOW...SHOULD HAVE MORE AREAS OF FROST
EARLY WEDNESDAY THAN WHAT WAS PRODUCED TONIGHT.

NEXT CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION APPEARS AT THE END OF THE WEEK. LATE
THURSDAY...SHORT WAVE ENERGY IS EXPECTED TO APPROACH THE
MID-SOUTH SOUTH...ALONG WITH AN ASSOCIATED SURFACE REFLECTION.
FORECASTS LAPSE RATES...AVAILABLE MOISTURE...AND WIND FIELDS ALL
APPEAR TO BE MUCH WEAKER THAN THOSE OF THE PREVIOUS SYSTEM THAT
AFFECTED THIS REGION...AND OVERALL CONVECTION THAT IS PRODUCED
SHOULD BE WEAK.

55

&&

.LONG TERM...SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY
WEAK UPPER RIDGE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION SATURDAY...BEFORE NEXT
SYSTEM ARRIVES FOR THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEKEND. GUIDANCE IS
DIFFERING ON TIMING...WITH THE GFS THE FASTEST. HAVE LEFT SMALL
CHANCE POPS GOING IN THE FORECAST...UNTIL BETTER CONSISTENCY IS
REACHED.

58

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BATESVILLE AR     56  32  61  38 /   0   0   0  10
CAMDEN AR         60  32  65  39 /   0   0  10  10
HARRISON AR       55  30  62  37 /   0   0   0  10
HOT SPRINGS AR    60  32  63  40 /   0   0  10  10
LITTLE ROCK   AR  58  32  63  40 /   0   0  10  10
MONTICELLO AR     57  34  63  41 /  10   0  10  10
MOUNT IDA AR      60  32  63  40 /   0   0  10  10
MOUNTAIN HOME AR  56  30  62  37 /   0   0   0  10
NEWPORT AR        56  34  62  40 /   0   0   0  10
PINE BLUFF AR     57  34  63  41 /   0   0  10  10
RUSSELLVILLE AR   59  31  64  39 /   0   0  10  10
SEARCY AR         56  32  61  37 /   0   0  10  10
STUTTGART AR      56  34  61  41 /   0   0  10  10
&&

.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FROST ADVISORY FROM 1 AM TO 8 AM CDT WEDNESDAY FOR ARKANSAS-
BRADLEY-CALHOUN-CLARK-CLEVELAND-CONWAY-DALLAS-DESHA-DREW-
FAULKNER-GARLAND-GRANT-HOT SPRING-INDEPENDENCE-JACKSON-JEFFERSON-
JOHNSON-LINCOLN-LOGAN-LONOKE-MONROE-MONTGOMERY-OUACHITA-PERRY-
PIKE-POLK-POPE-PRAIRIE-PULASKI-SALINE-SCOTT-WHITE-WOODRUFF-YELL.


FREEZE WARNING UNTIL 10 AM CDT THIS MORNING FOR BAXTER-BOONE-
CLARK-CLEBURNE-CONWAY-FAULKNER-FULTON-GARLAND-HOT SPRING-
INDEPENDENCE-IZARD-JACKSON-JOHNSON-LOGAN-LONOKE-MARION-MONROE-
MONTGOMERY-NEWTON-PERRY-PIKE-POLK-POPE-PRAIRIE-PULASKI-SALINE-
SCOTT-SEARCY-SHARP-STONE-VAN BUREN-WHITE-WOODRUFF-YELL.


FREEZE WARNING FROM 1 AM TO 8 AM CDT WEDNESDAY FOR BAXTER-BOONE-
CLEBURNE-FULTON-IZARD-MARION-NEWTON-SEARCY-SHARP-STONE-VAN BUREN.


FROST ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM CDT THIS MORNING FOR ARKANSAS-BRADLEY-
CALHOUN-CLEVELAND-DALLAS-DESHA-DREW-GRANT-JEFFERSON-LINCOLN-
OUACHITA.

&&

$$








000
FXUS64 KLZK 150549 AAA
AFDLZK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
1249 AM CDT TUE APR 15 2014

.AVIATION...
CLOUDS MOVING OUT OF SOUTHEAST...WITH VFR CONDITIONS. WINDS WILL
LESSEN OVERNIGHT ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST. NORTHWEST WINDS WILL BE
OVER THE REGION THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON...BEFORE SWITCHING TO
THE SOUTHEAST AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES EAST.
&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 900 PM CDT MON APR 14 2014/

DISCUSSION...

OVERALL FORECAST ON TRACK. UPDATED EARLIER TO DROP LAKE WIND
ADVISORY AS WINDS HAD LOWERED BELOW CRITERIA. TONIGHT WILL SEE THE
CLOUDS GRADUALLY THIN AND BREAK UP...WHICH WILL ALLOW TEMPS TO DROP
TO THE UPPER 20S OVER THE NORTH...AROUND FREEZING CENTRAL
AREAS...WHILE THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 30S OVER THE SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST.
WINDS WILL ALSO LOWER TO MAINLY LESS THAN 10 MPH...BUT SOME MIXING
WILL STILL BE POSSIBLE AND MAY LIMIT SOME AREAS DROPPING TO BELOW
FREEZING...NOT TO MENTION WARM GROUND TEMPERATURES. HENCE A FREEZE
WARNING IS IN EFFECT OVER NORTHERN AND MUCH OF CENTRAL TO SW
AR...AND A FROST ADVISORY OVER THE SOUTHEAST. THE SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD INTO AR OVERNIGHT...AS THE UPPER
TROUGH LIFTS EAST. SUNNY WITH COOLER TEMPERATURES ON TUESDAY. (59)

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 243 PM CDT MON APR 14 2014/

SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE BUILDING INTO THE AREA
TONIGHT...PUSHING THE PRECIP OFF TO THE EAST AND BRINGING MUCH
COOLER AIR INTO THE STATE. MAIN CHALLENGE WITH THE FORECAST TONIGHT
IS WITH THE MIN TEMPERATURES AND A LATE SEASON FREEZE FOR A GOOD
PART OF THE FORECAST AREA.

OVERNIGHT WINDS ARE GOING TO REMAIN RATHER GUSTY OVERNIGHT...AND
THAT WILL KEEP THE LOWER LAYERS OF THE ATMOSPHERE FAIRLY WELL MIXED.
THIS WILL INHIBIT THE POTENTIAL FOR FREEZING IN SOME OF THE MARGINAL
AREAS OF THE STATE...AND THIS IS IN LINE WITH THE MORNING GUIDANCE
VALUES THAT GENERALLY WENT UP A DEGREE OR TWO FOR OVERNIGHT LOWS IN
THOSE LOCATIONS.

WITH THAT SAID...THERE WILL STILL BE A NUMBER OF LOCATIONS IN THE
MARGINAL AREAS THAT WILL SEE TEMPS DIP BELOW 32...SO I AM NOT
PLANNING TO SCALE BACK THE EXTENT OF THE FREEZE WARNING AT THIS
TIME. IN FACT...IN LINE WITH THE LATEST GUIDANCE I AM CONCERNED THAT
A NUMBER OF THE COUNTIES EAST OF METRO LITTLE ROCK TOWARD MEMPHIS
COULD SEE AREAS WITH TEMPERATURES AT OR BELOW 32 TONIGHT.
CONSIDERING THAT I HAVE EXTENDED THE FREEZE WARNING TO COVER
LONOKE...PRAIRIE...WOODRUFF...AND MONROE COUNTIES.

THE SURFACE HIGH SHOULD START TO SLIDE TO THE EAST ON
WEDNESDAY...SETTING UP A RETURN SOUTHERLY FLOW...AND BRING A GRADUAL
WARM UP BACK TO THE FORECAST AREA. BY THURSDAY MOISTURE LEVELS
SHOULD START TO INCREASE...AND ANOTHER FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL BE
APPROACHING FROM THE NW.

LOOKING ALOFT...THE NWLY FLOW ALOFT SHOULD BECOME SWLY AS AN UPPER
LEVEL LOW BEGINS TO TAKE SHAPE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS ON
THURSDAY. I AM ANTICIPATING THAT A NUMBER OF SHORTWAVES WILL EJECT
FROM THE LOW AND RIPPLE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THURSDAY AND
THURSDAY NIGHT. COMBINED WITH THE INCREASING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND
THE APPROACHING FRONT FROM THE NW...I HAVE OPTED TO PUT SOME DECENT
CHC POPS ACROSS THE AREA FOR THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT.

LONG TERM...FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...
A QUICK MOVG STORM SYS WL BE WORKING ACRS THE MID SOUTH ON FRI
AND EARLY FRI NGT. KEPT LOW CHC POPS IN THE FCST FOR FRI...BUT
THAT COULD BE OVERDONE AS A RESULT OF THE PROGRESSIVE NATURE OF
THE SYS. DRIER CONDS WL RETURN FOR THE START OF THE WEEKEND AS A
WEAK RDG OF HIGH PRES BLDS INTO THE FA.

ANOTHER SRN STREAM STORM SYS IS FCST TO AFFECT THE AREA AT SOME
POINT LATER IN THE WEEKEND AND/OR EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE GFS RMNS
FASTER WITH THE EWD MOVEMENT OF THE SYS COMPARED TO THE SLOWER
ECMWF/GEM SOLUTIONS. OPTED TO USE A BLEND OF THE VARIOUS MODEL DATA
AND KEEP POPS IN THE 20 TO 30 PERCENT RANGE FOR NOW DUE TO LOW
CONFIDENCE IN THE DATA.
&&

.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FREEZE WARNING UNTIL 10 AM CDT THIS MORNING FOR BAXTER-BOONE-
CLARK-CLEBURNE-CONWAY-FAULKNER-FULTON-GARLAND-HOT SPRING-
INDEPENDENCE-IZARD-JACKSON-JOHNSON-LOGAN-LONOKE-MARION-MONROE-
MONTGOMERY-NEWTON-PERRY-PIKE-POLK-POPE-PRAIRIE-PULASKI-SALINE-
SCOTT-SEARCY-SHARP-STONE-VAN BUREN-WHITE-WOODRUFF-YELL.

FROST ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM CDT THIS MORNING FOR ARKANSAS-BRADLEY-
CALHOUN-CLEVELAND-DALLAS-DESHA-DREW-GRANT-JEFFERSON-LINCOLN-
OUACHITA.
&&

$$

AVIATION...58





000
FXUS64 KLZK 150201 AAA
AFDLZK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
900 PM CDT MON APR 14 2014

.DISCUSSION...

OVERALL FORECAST ON TRACK. UPDATED EARLIER TO DROP LAKE WIND
ADVISORY AS WINDS HAD LOWERED BELOW CRITERIA. TONIGHT WILL SEE THE
CLOUDS GRADUALLY THIN AND BREAK UP...WHICH WILL ALLOW TEMPS TO DROP
TO THE UPPER 20S OVER THE NORTH...AROUND FREEZING CENTRAL
AREAS...WHILE THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 30S OVER THE SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST.
WINDS WILL ALSO LOWER TO MAINLY LESS THAN 10 MPH...BUT SOME MIXING
WILL STILL BE POSSIBLE AND MAY LIMIT SOOM AREAS DROPPING TO BELOW
FREEZING...NOT TO MENTION WARM GROUND TEMPERATURES. HENCE A FREEZE
WARNING IS IN EFFECT OVER NORTHERN AND MUCH OF CENTRAL TO SW
AR...AND A FROST ADVISORY OVER THE SOUTHEAST. THE SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD INTO AR OVERNIGHT...AS THE UPPER
TROUGH LIFTS EAST. SUNNY WITH COOLER TEMPERATURES ON TUESDAY. (59)

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 612 PM CDT MON APR 14 2014/

.AVIATION...

CLOUD SHIELD ASSOCIATED WITH UPPER TROUGH IS SLOWLY SLIDING TO THE
SOUTHEAST WHICH WILL BRING SKC CONDITIONS TO AREA TERMINALS
LATER...STARTING WITH KHRO/KBPK AOA 15/02Z WITH KLLQ CLEARING LAST
AOA 15/09Z. IN THE MEANTIME...MVFR CONDITIONS NOTED ALMOST
AREAWIDE ALONG WITH NW WINDS OF 10-15KTS GUSTING ABOVE 20KTS AT
TIMES. NW WINDS WILL CONTINUE TUESDAY...ALTHOUGH LIGHTER AOA
5-10KTS. MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES TOMORROW...WITH ONLY SOME HIGH CLOUDS
POSSIBLE MAINLY ACROSS THE NORTH.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 243 PM CDT MON APR 14 2014/

SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THRU THURSDAY NIGHT...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE BUILDING INTO THE AREA
TONIGHT...PUSHING THE PRECIP OFF TO THE EAST AND BRINGING MUCH
COOLER AIR INTO THE STATE. MAIN CHALLENGE WITH THE FORECAST TONIGHT
IS WITH THE MIN TEMPERATURES AND A LATE SEASON FREEZE FOR A GOOD
PART OF THE FORECAST AREA.

OVERNIGHT WINDS ARE GOING TO REMAIN RATHER GUSTY OVERNIGHT...AND
THAT WILL KEEP THE LOWER LAYERS OF THE ATMOSPHERE FAIRLY WELL MIXED.
THIS WILL INHIBIT THE POTENTIAL FOR FREEZING IN SOME OF THE MARGINAL
AREAS OF THE STATE...AND THIS IS IN LINE WITH THE MORNING GUIDANCE
VALUES THAT GENERALLY WENT UP A DEGREE OR TWO FOR OVERNIGHT LOWS IN
THOSE LOCATIONS.

WITH THAT SAID...THERE WILL STILL BE A NUMBER OF LOCATIONS IN THE
MARGINAL AREAS THAT WILL SEE TEMPS DIP BELOW 32...SO I AM NOT
PLANNING TO SCALE BACK THE EXTENT OF THE FREEZE WARNING AT THIS
TIME. IN FACT...IN LINE WITH THE LATEST GUIDANCE I AM CONCERNED THAT
A NUMBER OF THE COUNTIES EAST OF METRO LITTLE ROCK TOWARD MEMPHIS
COULD SEE AREAS WITH TEMPERATURES AT OR BELOW 32 TONIGHT.
CONSIDERING THAT I HAVE EXTENDED THE FREEZE WARNING TO COVER
LONOKE...PRAIRIE...WOODRUFF...AND MONROE COUNTIES.

THE SURFACE HIGH SHOULD START TO SLIDE TO THE EAST ON
WEDNESDAY...SETTING UP A RETURN SOUTHERLY FLOW...AND BRING A GRADUAL
WARM UP BACK TO THE FORECAST AREA. BY THURSDAY MOISTURE LEVELS
SHOULD START TO INCREASE...AND ANOTHER FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL BE
APPROACHING FROM THE NW.

LOOKING ALOFT...THE NWLY FLOW ALOFT SHOULD BECOME SWLY AS AN UPPER
LEVEL LOW BEGINS TO TAKE SHAPE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS ON
THURSDAY. I AM ANTICIPATING THAT A NUMBER OF SHORTWAVES WILL EJECT
FROM THE LOW AND RIPPLE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THURSDAY AND
THURSDAY NIGHT. COMBINED WITH THE INCREASING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND
THE APPROACHING FRONT FROM THE NW...I HAVE OPTED TO PUT SOME DECENT
CHC POPS ACROSS THE AREA FOR THUSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT.

LONG TERM...FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...
A QUICK MOVG STORM SYS WL BE WORKING ACRS THE MID SOUTH ON FRI
AND EARLY FRI NGT. KEPT LOW CHC POPS IN THE FCST FOR FRI...BUT
THAT COULD BE OVERDONE AS A RESULT OF THE PROGRESSIVE NATURE OF
THE SYS. DRIER CONDS WL RETURN FOR THE START OF THE WEEKEND AS A
WEAK RDG OF HIGH PRES BLDS INTO THE FA.

ANOTHER SRN STREAM STORM SYS IS FCST TO AFFECT THE AREA AT SOME
POINT LATER IN THE WEEKEND AND/OR EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE GFS RMNS
FASTER WITH THE EWD MOVEMENT OF THE SYS COMPARED TO THE SLOWER
ECMWF/GEM SOLUTIONS. OPTED TO USE A BLEND OF THE VARIOUS MODEL DATA
AND KEEP POPS IN THE 20 TO 30 PERCENT RANGE FOR NOW DUE TO LOW
CONFIDENCE IN THE DATA.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BATESVILLE AR     31  55  33  61 /  20   0   0  10
CAMDEN AR         34  59  33  65 /  20   0   0  10
HARRISON AR       28  56  32  62 /  10   0   0   0
HOT SPRINGS AR    33  60  34  63 /  10   0   0  10
LITTLE ROCK   AR  32  57  33  63 /  20   0   0  10
MONTICELLO AR     35  55  33  62 /  30  10   0  10
MOUNT IDA AR      31  59  34  64 /  10   0   0  10
MOUNTAIN HOME AR  28  57  32  62 /  10   0   0   0
NEWPORT AR        31  54  33  62 /  30   0   0  10
PINE BLUFF AR     34  56  33  62 /  30   0   0  10
RUSSELLVILLE AR   31  60  34  65 /  10   0   0  10
SEARCY AR         30  55  33  59 /  20   0   0  10
STUTTGART AR      32  55  33  60 /  30   0   0  10
&&

.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

FREEZE WARNING FROM 1 AM TO 10 AM CDT TUESDAY FOR BAXTER-BOONE-
CLARK-CLEBURNE-CONWAY-FAULKNER-FULTON-GARLAND-HOT SPRING-
INDEPENDENCE-IZARD-JACKSON-JOHNSON-LOGAN-LONOKE-MARION-MONROE-
MONTGOMERY-NEWTON-PERRY-PIKE-POLK-POPE-PRAIRIE-PULASKI-SALINE-
SCOTT-SEARCY-SHARP-STONE-VAN BUREN-WHITE-WOODRUFF-YELL.


FROST ADVISORY FROM 1 AM TO 10 AM CDT TUESDAY FOR ARKANSAS-
BRADLEY-CALHOUN-CLEVELAND-DALLAS-DESHA-DREW-GRANT-JEFFERSON-
LINCOLN-OUACHITA.

&&

$$


AVIATION...226









000
FXUS64 KLZK 142312
AFDLZK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
612 PM CDT MON APR 14 2014

.DISCUSSION...

UPDATED FOR 00Z AVIATION DISCUSSION.

&&

.AVIATION...

CLOUD SHIELD ASSOCIATED WITH UPPER TROUGH IS SLOWLY SLIDING TO THE
SOUTHEAST WHICH WILL BRING SKC CONDITIONS TO AREA TERMINALS
LATER...STARTING WITH KHRO/KBPK AOA 15/02Z WITH KLLQ CLEARING LAST
AOA 15/09Z. IN THE MEANTIME...MVFR CONDITIONS NOTED ALMOST
AREAWIDE ALONG WITH NW WINDS OF 10-15KTS GUSTING ABOVE 20KTS AT
TIMES. NW WINDS WILL CONTINUE TUESDAY...ALTHOUGH LIGHTER AOA
5-10KTS. MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES TOMORROW...WITH ONLY SOME HIGH CLOUDS
POSSIBLE MAINLY ACROSS THE NORTH.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 243 PM CDT MON APR 14 2014/

SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THRU THURSDAY NIGHT...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE BUILDING INTO THE AREA
TONIGHT...PUSHING THE PRECIP OFF TO THE EAST AND BRINGING MUCH
COOLER AIR INTO THE STATE. MAIN CHALLENGE WITH THE FORECAST TONIGHT
IS WITH THE MIN TEMPERATURES AND A LATE SEASON FREEZE FOR A GOOD
PART OF THE FORECAST AREA.

OVERNIGHT WINDS ARE GOING TO REMAIN RATHER GUSTY OVERNIGHT...AND
THAT WILL KEEP THE LOWER LAYERS OF THE ATMOSPHERE FAIRLY WELL MIXED.
THIS WILL INHIBIT THE POTENTIAL FOR FREEZING IN SOME OF THE MARGINAL
AREAS OF THE STATE...AND THIS IS IN LINE WITH THE MORNING GUIDANCE
VALUES THAT GENERALLY WENT UP A DEGREE OR TWO FOR OVERNIGHT LOWS IN
THOSE LOCATIONS.

WITH THAT SAID...THERE WILL STILL BE A NUMBER OF LOCATIONS IN THE
MARGINAL AREAS THAT WILL SEE TEMPS DIP BELOW 32...SO I AM NOT
PLANNING TO SCALE BACK THE EXTENT OF THE FREEZE WARNING AT THIS
TIME. IN FACT...IN LINE WITH THE LATEST GUIDANCE I AM CONCERNED THAT
A NUMBER OF THE COUNTIES EAST OF METRO LITTLE ROCK TOWARD MEMPHIS
COULD SEE AREAS WITH TEMPERATURES AT OR BELOW 32 TONIGHT.
CONSIDERING THAT I HAVE EXTENDED THE FREEZE WARNING TO COVER
LONOKE...PRAIRIE...WOODRUFF...AND MONROE COUNTIES.

THE SURFACE HIGH SHOULD START TO SLIDE TO THE EAST ON
WEDNESDAY...SETTING UP A RETURN SOUTHERLY FLOW...AND BRING A GRADUAL
WARM UP BACK TO THE FORECAST AREA. BY THURSDAY MOISTURE LEVELS
SHOULD START TO INCREASE...AND ANOTHER FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL BE
APPROACHING FROM THE NW.

LOOKING ALOFT...THE NWLY FLOW ALOFT SHOULD BECOME SWLY AS AN UPPER
LEVEL LOW BEGINS TO TAKE SHAPE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS ON
THURSDAY. I AM ANTICIPATING THAT A NUMBER OF SHORTWAVES WILL EJECT
FROM THE LOW AND RIPPLE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THURSDAY AND
THURSDAY NIGHT. COMBINED WITH THE INCREASING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND
THE APPROACHING FRONT FROM THE NW...I HAVE OPTED TO PUT SOME DECENT
CHC POPS ACROSS THE AREA FOR THUSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT.

LONG TERM...FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...
A QUICK MOVG STORM SYS WL BE WORKING ACRS THE MID SOUTH ON FRI
AND EARLY FRI NGT. KEPT LOW CHC POPS IN THE FCST FOR FRI...BUT
THAT COULD BE OVERDONE AS A RESULT OF THE PROGRESSIVE NATURE OF
THE SYS. DRIER CONDS WL RETURN FOR THE START OF THE WEEKEND AS A
WEAK RDG OF HIGH PRES BLDS INTO THE FA.

ANOTHER SRN STREAM STORM SYS IS FCST TO AFFECT THE AREA AT SOME
POINT LATER IN THE WEEKEND AND/OR EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE GFS RMNS
FASTER WITH THE EWD MOVEMENT OF THE SYS COMPARED TO THE SLOWER
ECMWF/GEM SOLUTIONS. OPTED TO USE A BLEND OF THE VARIOUS MODEL DATA
AND KEEP POPS IN THE 20 TO 30 PERCENT RANGE FOR NOW DUE TO LOW
CONFIDENCE IN THE DATA.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BATESVILLE AR     31  55  33  61 /  20   0   0  10
CAMDEN AR         34  59  33  65 /  20   0   0  10
HARRISON AR       28  56  32  62 /  10   0   0   0
HOT SPRINGS AR    33  60  34  63 /  10   0   0  10
LITTLE ROCK   AR  32  57  33  63 /  20   0   0  10
MONTICELLO AR     35  55  33  62 /  30  10   0  10
MOUNT IDA AR      31  59  34  64 /  10   0   0  10
MOUNTAIN HOME AR  28  57  32  62 /  10   0   0   0
NEWPORT AR        31  54  33  62 /  30   0   0  10
PINE BLUFF AR     34  56  33  62 /  30   0   0  10
RUSSELLVILLE AR   31  60  34  65 /  10   0   0  10
SEARCY AR         30  55  33  59 /  20   0   0  10
STUTTGART AR      32  55  33  60 /  30   0   0  10
&&

.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LAKE WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR ARKANSAS-
BAXTER-BOONE-BRADLEY-CALHOUN-CLARK-CLEBURNE-CLEVELAND-CONWAY-
DALLAS-DESHA-DREW-FAULKNER-FULTON-GARLAND-GRANT-HOT SPRING-
INDEPENDENCE-IZARD-JACKSON-JEFFERSON-JOHNSON-LINCOLN-LOGAN-
LONOKE-MARION-MONROE-MONTGOMERY-NEWTON-OUACHITA-PERRY-PIKE-POLK-
POPE-PRAIRIE-PULASKI-SALINE-SCOTT-SEARCY-SHARP-STONE-VAN BUREN-
WHITE-WOODRUFF-YELL.


FREEZE WARNING FROM 1 AM TO 10 AM CDT TUESDAY FOR BAXTER-BOONE-
CLARK-CLEBURNE-CONWAY-FAULKNER-FULTON-GARLAND-HOT SPRING-
INDEPENDENCE-IZARD-JACKSON-JOHNSON-LOGAN-LONOKE-MARION-MONROE-
MONTGOMERY-NEWTON-PERRY-PIKE-POLK-POPE-PRAIRIE-PULASKI-SALINE-
SCOTT-SEARCY-SHARP-STONE-VAN BUREN-WHITE-WOODRUFF-YELL.


FROST ADVISORY FROM 1 AM TO 10 AM CDT TUESDAY FOR ARKANSAS-
BRADLEY-CALHOUN-CLEVELAND-DALLAS-DESHA-DREW-GRANT-JEFFERSON-
LINCOLN-OUACHITA.

&&

$$


AVIATION...226






000
FXUS64 KLZK 141943
AFDLZK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
243 PM CDT MON APR 14 2014

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THRU THURSDAY NIGHT...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE BUILDING INTO THE AREA
TONIGHT...PUSHING THE PRECIP OFF TO THE EAST AND BRINGING MUCH
COOLER AIR INTO THE STATE. MAIN CHALLENGE WITH THE FORECAST TONIGHT
IS WITH THE MIN TEMPERATURES AND A LATE SEASON FREEZE FOR A GOOD
PART OF THE FORECAST AREA.

OVERNIGHT WINDS ARE GOING TO REMAIN RATHER GUSTY OVERNIGHT...AND
THAT WILL KEEP THE LOWER LAYERS OF THE ATMOSPHERE FAIRLY WELL MIXED.
THIS WILL INHIBIT THE POTENTIAL FOR FREEZING IN SOME OF THE MARGINAL
AREAS OF THE STATE...AND THIS IS IN LINE WITH THE MORNING GUIDANCE
VALUES THAT GENERALLY WENT UP A DEGREE OR TWO FOR OVERNIGHT LOWS IN
THOSE LOCATIONS.

WITH THAT SAID...THERE WILL STILL BE A NUMBER OF LOCATIONS IN THE
MARGINAL AREAS THAT WILL SEE TEMPS DIP BELOW 32...SO I AM NOT
PLANNING TO SCALE BACK THE EXTENT OF THE FREEZE WARNING AT THIS
TIME. IN FACT...IN LINE WITH THE LATEST GUIDANCE I AM CONCERNED THAT
A NUMBER OF THE COUNTIES EAST OF METRO LITTLE ROCK TOWARD MEMPHIS
COULD SEE AREAS WITH TEMPERATURES AT OR BELOW 32 TONIGHT.
CONSIDERING THAT I HAVE EXTENDED THE FREEZE WARNING TO COVER
LONOKE...PRAIRIE...WOODRUFF...AND MONROE COUNTIES.

THE SURFACE HIGH SHOULD START TO SLIDE TO THE EAST ON
WEDNESDAY...SETTING UP A RETURN SOUTHERLY FLOW...AND BRING A GRADUAL
WARM UP BACK TO THE FORECAST AREA. BY THURSDAY MOISTURE LEVELS
SHOULD START TO INCREASE...AND ANOTHER FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL BE
APPROACHING FROM THE NW.

LOOKING ALOFT...THE NWLY FLOW ALOFT SHOULD BECOME SWLY AS AN UPPER
LEVEL LOW BEGINS TO TAKE SHAPE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS ON
THURSDAY. I AM ANTICIPATING THAT A NUMBER OF SHORTWAVES WILL EJECT
FROM THE LOW AND RIPPLE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THURSDAY AND
THURSDAY NIGHT. COMBINED WITH THE INCREASING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND
THE APPROACHING FRONT FROM THE NW...I HAVE OPTED TO PUT SOME DECENT
CHC POPS ACROSS THE AREA FOR THUSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM...FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...
A QUICK MOVG STORM SYS WL BE WORKING ACRS THE MID SOUTH ON FRI
AND EARLY FRI NGT. KEPT LOW CHC POPS IN THE FCST FOR FRI...BUT
THAT COULD BE OVERDONE AS A RESULT OF THE PROGRESSIVE NATURE OF
THE SYS. DRIER CONDS WL RETURN FOR THE START OF THE WEEKEND AS A
WEAK RDG OF HIGH PRES BLDS INTO THE FA.

ANOTHER SRN STREAM STORM SYS IS FCST TO AFFECT THE AREA AT SOME
POINT LATER IN THE WEEKEND AND/OR EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE GFS RMNS
FASTER WITH THE EWD MOVEMENT OF THE SYS COMPARED TO THE SLOWER
ECMWF/GEM SOLUTIONS. OPTED TO USE A BLEND OF THE VARIOUS MODEL DATA
AND KEEP POPS IN THE 20 TO 30 PERCENT RANGE FOR NOW DUE TO LOW
CONFIDENCE IN THE DATA.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BATESVILLE AR     31  55  33  61 /  20   0   0  10
CAMDEN AR         34  59  33  65 /  20   0   0  10
HARRISON AR       28  56  32  62 /  10   0   0   0
HOT SPRINGS AR    33  60  34  63 /  10   0   0  10
LITTLE ROCK   AR  32  57  33  63 /  20   0   0  10
MONTICELLO AR     35  55  33  62 /  30  10   0  10
MOUNT IDA AR      31  59  34  64 /  10   0   0  10
MOUNTAIN HOME AR  28  57  32  62 /  10   0   0   0
NEWPORT AR        31  54  33  62 /  30   0   0  10
PINE BLUFF AR     34  56  33  62 /  30   0   0  10
RUSSELLVILLE AR   31  60  34  65 /  10   0   0  10
SEARCY AR         30  55  33  59 /  20   0   0  10
STUTTGART AR      32  55  33  60 /  30   0   0  10
&&

.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LAKE WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR ARKANSAS-
BAXTER-BOONE-BRADLEY-CALHOUN-CLARK-CLEBURNE-CLEVELAND-CONWAY-
DALLAS-DESHA-DREW-FAULKNER-FULTON-GARLAND-GRANT-HOT SPRING-
INDEPENDENCE-IZARD-JACKSON-JEFFERSON-JOHNSON-LINCOLN-LOGAN-
LONOKE-MARION-MONROE-MONTGOMERY-NEWTON-OUACHITA-PERRY-PIKE-POLK-
POPE-PRAIRIE-PULASKI-SALINE-SCOTT-SEARCY-SHARP-STONE-VAN BUREN-
WHITE-WOODRUFF-YELL.


FREEZE WARNING FROM 1 AM TO 10 AM CDT TUESDAY FOR BAXTER-BOONE-
CLARK-CLEBURNE-CONWAY-FAULKNER-FULTON-GARLAND-HOT SPRING-
INDEPENDENCE-IZARD-JACKSON-JOHNSON-LOGAN-LONOKE-MARION-MONROE-
MONTGOMERY-NEWTON-PERRY-PIKE-POLK-POPE-PRAIRIE-PULASKI-SALINE-
SCOTT-SEARCY-SHARP-STONE-VAN BUREN-WHITE-WOODRUFF-YELL.


FROST ADVISORY FROM 1 AM TO 10 AM CDT TUESDAY FOR ARKANSAS-
BRADLEY-CALHOUN-CLEVELAND-DALLAS-DESHA-DREW-GRANT-JEFFERSON-
LINCOLN-OUACHITA.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...53 / LONG TERM...44






000
FXUS64 KLZK 141750
AFDLZK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
1250 PM CDT MON APR 14 2014

.AVIATION...14/18Z TAF CYCLE

SCTD SHRA/TSRA WL CONT TO AFFECT CNTRL AND ERN AR THIS AFTN AS AN
UPR LVL TROF MOVES ACRS THE REGION. SOME OF THE STRONGER STORMS WL
PRODUCE SMALL HAIL. WIDESPREAD MVFR CIGS WL BE NOTED ACRS THE FA
INTO THIS EVENING...WITH OCNL MVFR/IFR VSBYS VCNTY OF THE HEAVIER
STORMS. CONDS WL IMPROVE TNGT AS DRIER AIR FILTERS INTO THE AREA...
WITH VFR CONDS RETURNING FM NW TO SE OVERNIGHT AND INTO TUE. /44/
&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1231 PM CDT MON APR 14 2014/

UPDATE...
SENDING OUT A GRID UPDATE PRIMARILY FOR POPS AND WX. A RAIN AND
SNOW MIX HAS BEEN OCCURRING IN SOME AREAS ACROSS SRN MO...SE
KS...AND NW OK...AND LOOKING AT THE SOUNDINGS AND SFC TEMPS I
BELIEVE THERE COULD BE A BIT OF A RAIN AND SNOW MIX ACROSS THE
NWRN ZONES. ELSEWHERE I UPDATED POPS AND WX A BIT TO REFLECT
ONGOING TRENDS.

ALSO...AM CONSIDERING THE POSSIBILITY OF EXPANDING THE FREEZE
WARNING TONIGHT...MAINLY TO THE EAST OF PULASKI CO. WILL HAVE
UPDATED INFO ON EVENING PACKAGE. 53

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 411 AM CDT MON APR 14 2014/

DISCUSSION...
TRENDS INDICATED BY RECENT RADAR AND SATELLITE DATA INDICATE THAT
THE CONVECTION ACROSS SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA
CONTINUES TO DECREASE IN CONVERAGE AND INTENSITY.

LATEST SUBJECTIVE SURFACE ANALYSIS INDICATES A WELL DEFINED COLD
FRONT NOW ENTERING NORTHWEST SECTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA.
TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL HAVE DIFFICULTY IN CLIMING AFTER FRONTAL
PASSAGE. GUSTY CONDITIONS WILL DEVELOP ALSO AFTER THE FRONT
PASSES. UPPER LEVEL ENERGY NOW LEAVING THE CENTRAL ROCKIES WILL
CONTINUE EASTWARD...LAPSE RATES ASSOICATED WITH THIS FEATURE WILL
SUPPORT ADDITIONAL RAINFALL THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY. OVERALL
RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL BE LIGHT.

A LATE SEASON HARD FREEZE WILL AFFECT NORTH AND WEST SECTIONS
OVERNIGHT...WITH AREAS OF FROST EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ELSEWHERE.
APPROPRIATE HEADLINES HAVE BEEN ISSUED.

ANOTHER FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL AFFECT THE STATE LATE THURSDAY AND
THURSDAY NIGHT. TEMPERATURE CHANGES ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM SHOULD
BE MILD.
&&

.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LAKE WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR ARKANSAS-
BAXTER-BOONE-BRADLEY-CALHOUN-CLARK-CLEBURNE-CLEVELAND-CONWAY-
DALLAS-DESHA-DREW-FAULKNER-FULTON-GARLAND-GRANT-HOT SPRING-
INDEPENDENCE-IZARD-JACKSON-JEFFERSON-JOHNSON-LINCOLN-LOGAN-
LONOKE-MARION-MONROE-MONTGOMERY-NEWTON-OUACHITA-PERRY-PIKE-POLK-
POPE-PRAIRIE-PULASKI-SALINE-SCOTT-SEARCY-SHARP-STONE-VAN BUREN-
WHITE-WOODRUFF-YELL.


FREEZE WARNING FROM 1 AM TO 10 AM CDT TUESDAY FOR BAXTER-BOONE-
CLARK-CLEBURNE-CONWAY-FAULKNER-FULTON-GARLAND-HOT SPRING-
INDEPENDENCE-IZARD-JACKSON-JOHNSON-LOGAN-MARION-MONTGOMERY-
NEWTON-PERRY-PIKE-POLK-POPE-PULASKI-SALINE-SCOTT-SEARCY-SHARP-
STONE-VAN BUREN-WHITE-YELL.


FROST ADVISORY FROM 1 AM TO 10 AM CDT TUESDAY FOR ARKANSAS-
BRADLEY-CALHOUN-CLEVELAND-DALLAS-DESHA-DREW-GRANT-JEFFERSON-
LINCOLN-LONOKE-MONROE-OUACHITA-PRAIRIE-WOODRUFF.
&&

$$






000
FXUS64 KLZK 141731
AFDLZK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
1231 PM CDT MON APR 14 2014

.UPDATE...
SENDING OUT A GRID UPDATE PRIMARILY FOR POPS AND WX. A RAIN AND
SNOW MIX HAS BEEN OCCURRING IN SOME AREAS ACROSS SRN MO...SE
KS...AND NW OK...AND LOOKING AT THE SOUNDINGS AND SFC TEMPS I
BELIEVE THERE COULD BE A BIT OF A RAIN AND SNOW MIX ACROSS THE
NWRN ZONES. ELSEWHERE I UPDATED POPS AND WX A BIT TO REFLECT
ONGOING TRENDS.

ALSO...AM CONSIDERING THE POSSIBILITY OF EXPANDING THE FREEZE
WARNING TONIGHT...MAINLY TO THE EAST OF PULASKI CO. WILL HAVE
UPDATED INFO ON EVENING PACKAGE. 53

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 621 AM CDT MON APR 14 2014/

AVIATION...
MVFR CIGS WILL AFFECT MOST SITES THROUGH 21Z. SFC WIND WILL
BECOME NWLY AT 15-25 KTS AFTER COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE...ANALYZED AT
11Z FROM MOUNTAIN HOME...TO MENA.

55

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 411 AM CDT MON APR 14 2014/

DISCUSSION...
TRENDS INDICATED BY RECENT RADAR AND SATELLITE DATA INDICATE THAT
THE CONVECTION ACROSS SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA
CONTINUES TO DECREASE IN CONVERAGE AND INTENSITY.

LATEST SUBJECTIVE SURFACE ANALYSIS INDICATES A WELL DEFINED COLD
FRONT NOW ENTERING NORTHWEST SECTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA.
TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL HAVE DIFFICULTY IN CLIMING AFTER FRONTAL
PASSAGE. GUSTY CONDITIONS WILL DEVELOP ALSO AFTER THE FRONT
PASSES. UPPER LEVEL ENERGY NOW LEAVING THE CENTRAL ROCKIES WILL
CONTINUE EASTWARD...LAPSE RATES ASSOICATED WITH THIS FEATURE WILL
SUPPORT ADDITIONAL RAINFALL THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY. OVERALL
RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL BE LIGHT.

A LATE SEASON HARD FREEZE WILL AFFECT NORTH AND WEST SECTIONS
OVERNIGHT...WITH AREAS OF FROST EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ELSEWHERE.
APPROPRIATE HEADLINES HAVE BEEN ISSUED.

ANOTHER FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL AFFECT THE STATE LATE THURSDAY AND
THURSDAY NIGHT. TEMPERATURE CHANGES ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM SHOULD
BE MILD.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BATESVILLE AR     31  55  32  62 /  20   0   0   0
CAMDEN AR         34  60  31  67 /  20   0   0   0
HARRISON AR       28  55  30  61 /  10   0   0   0
HOT SPRINGS AR    33  59  32  64 /  10   0   0   0
LITTLE ROCK   AR  32  58  34  64 /  20   0   0   0
MONTICELLO AR     36  57  34  66 /  30   0   0   0
MOUNT IDA AR      32  59  32  63 /  10   0   0   0
MOUNTAIN HOME AR  28  55  31  62 /  10   0   0   0
NEWPORT AR        32  55  33  62 /  30   0   0   0
PINE BLUFF AR     34  57  34  65 /  30   0   0   0
RUSSELLVILLE AR   31  59  32  64 /  10   0   0   0
SEARCY AR         30  56  32  62 /  20   0   0   0
STUTTGART AR      32  56  35  63 /  30   0   0   0
&&

.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LAKE WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR ARKANSAS-
BAXTER-BOONE-BRADLEY-CALHOUN-CLARK-CLEBURNE-CLEVELAND-CONWAY-
DALLAS-DESHA-DREW-FAULKNER-FULTON-GARLAND-GRANT-HOT SPRING-
INDEPENDENCE-IZARD-JACKSON-JEFFERSON-JOHNSON-LINCOLN-LOGAN-
LONOKE-MARION-MONROE-MONTGOMERY-NEWTON-OUACHITA-PERRY-PIKE-POLK-
POPE-PRAIRIE-PULASKI-SALINE-SCOTT-SEARCY-SHARP-STONE-VAN BUREN-
WHITE-WOODRUFF-YELL.


FREEZE WARNING FROM 1 AM TO 10 AM CDT TUESDAY FOR BAXTER-BOONE-
CLARK-CLEBURNE-CONWAY-FAULKNER-FULTON-GARLAND-HOT SPRING-
INDEPENDENCE-IZARD-JACKSON-JOHNSON-LOGAN-MARION-MONTGOMERY-
NEWTON-PERRY-PIKE-POLK-POPE-PULASKI-SALINE-SCOTT-SEARCY-SHARP-
STONE-VAN BUREN-WHITE-YELL.


FROST ADVISORY FROM 1 AM TO 10 AM CDT TUESDAY FOR ARKANSAS-
BRADLEY-CALHOUN-CLEVELAND-DALLAS-DESHA-DREW-GRANT-JEFFERSON-
LINCOLN-LONOKE-MONROE-OUACHITA-PRAIRIE-WOODRUFF.

&&

$$






000
FXUS64 KLZK 141121
AFDLZK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
621 AM CDT MON APR 14 2014

.AVIATION...
MVFR CIGS WILL AFFECT MOST SITES THROUGH 21Z. SFC WIND WILL
BECOME NWLY AT 15-25 KTS AFTER COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE...ANALYZED AT
11Z FROM MOUNTAIN HOME...TO MENA.

55

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 411 AM CDT MON APR 14 2014/

DISCUSSION...
TRENDS INDICATED BY RECENT RADAR AND SATELLITE DATA INDICATE THAT
THE CONVECTION ACROSS SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA
CONTINUES TO DECREASE IN CONVERAGE AND INTENSITY.

LATEST SUBJECTIVE SURFACE ANALYSIS INDICATES A WELL DEFINED COLD
FRONT NOW ENTERING NORTHWEST SECTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA.
TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL HAVE DIFFICULTY IN CLIMING AFTER FRONTAL
PASSAGE. GUSTY CONDITIONS WILL DEVELOP ALSO AFTER THE FRONT
PASSES. UPPER LEVEL ENERGY NOW LEAVING THE CENTRAL ROCKIES WILL
CONTINUE EASTWARD...LAPSE RATES ASSOICATED WITH THIS FEATURE WILL
SUPPORT ADDITIONAL RAINFALL THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY. OVERALL
RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL BE LIGHT.

A LATE SEASON HARD FREEZE WILL AFFECT NORTH AND WEST SECTIONS
OVERNIGHT...WITH AREAS OF FROST EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ELSEWHERE.
APPROPRIATE HEADLINES HAVE BEEN ISSUED.

ANOTHER FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL AFFECT THE STATE LATE THURSDAY AND
THURSDAY NIGHT. TEMPERATURE CHANGES ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM SHOULD
BE MILD.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BATESVILLE AR     56  30  55  32 /  50  40   0   0
CAMDEN AR         66  32  60  31 /  60  40   0   0
HARRISON AR       45  25  55  30 /  60  40   0   0
HOT SPRINGS AR    60  30  59  32 /  40  30   0   0
LITTLE ROCK   AR  62  32  58  34 /  40  30   0   0
MONTICELLO AR     68  34  57  34 /  80  50   0   0
MOUNT IDA AR      56  29  59  32 /  40  30   0   0
MOUNTAIN HOME AR  48  27  55  31 /  60  40   0   0
NEWPORT AR        59  32  55  33 /  50  40   0   0
PINE BLUFF AR     66  34  57  34 /  70  40   0   0
RUSSELLVILLE AR   55  29  59  32 /  40  20   0   0
SEARCY AR         60  32  56  32 /  40  30   0   0
STUTTGART AR      63  34  56  35 /  70  40   0   0
&&

.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LAKE WIND ADVISORY FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 10 PM CDT THIS
EVENING FOR ARKANSAS-BAXTER-BOONE-BRADLEY-CALHOUN-CLARK-CLEBURNE-
CLEVELAND-CONWAY-DALLAS-DESHA-DREW-FAULKNER-FULTON-GARLAND-GRANT-
HOT SPRING-INDEPENDENCE-IZARD-JACKSON-JEFFERSON-JOHNSON-LINCOLN-
LOGAN-LONOKE-MARION-MONROE-MONTGOMERY-NEWTON-OUACHITA-PERRY-PIKE-
POLK-POPE-PRAIRIE-PULASKI-SALINE-SCOTT-SEARCY-SHARP-STONE-VAN
BUREN-WHITE-WOODRUFF-YELL.


FREEZE WARNING FROM 1 AM TO 10 AM CDT TUESDAY FOR BAXTER-BOONE-
CLARK-CLEBURNE-CONWAY-FAULKNER-FULTON-GARLAND-HOT SPRING-
INDEPENDENCE-IZARD-JACKSON-JOHNSON-LOGAN-MARION-MONTGOMERY-
NEWTON-PERRY-PIKE-POLK-POPE-PULASKI-SALINE-SCOTT-SEARCY-SHARP-
STONE-VAN BUREN-WHITE-YELL.


FROST ADVISORY FROM 1 AM TO 10 AM CDT TUESDAY FOR ARKANSAS-
BRADLEY-CALHOUN-CLEVELAND-DALLAS-DESHA-DREW-GRANT-JEFFERSON-
LINCOLN-LONOKE-MONROE-OUACHITA-PRAIRIE-WOODRUFF.

&&

$$


AVIATION...99






000
FXUS64 KLZK 140911
AFDLZK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
411 AM CDT MON APR 14 2014

.DISCUSSION...
TRENDS INDICATED BY RECENT RADAR AND SATELLITE DATA INDICATE THAT
THE CONVECTION ACROSS SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA
CONTINUES TO DECREASE IN CONVERAGE AND INTENSITY.

LATEST SUBJECTIVE SURFACE ANALYSIS INDICATES A WELL DEFINED COLD
FRONT NOW ENTERING NORTHWEST SECTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA.
TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL HAVE DIFFICULTY IN CLIMING AFTER FRONTAL
PASSAGE. GUSTY CONDITIONS WILL DEVELOP ALSO AFTER THE FRONT
PASSES. UPPER LEVEL ENERGY NOW LEAVING THE CENTRAL ROCKIES WILL
CONTINUE EASTWARD...LAPSE RATES ASSOICATED WITH THIS FEATURE WILL
SUPPORT ADDITIONAL RAINFALL THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY. OVERALL
RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL BE LIGHT.

A LATE SEASON HARD FREEZE WILL AFFECT NORTH AND WEST SECTIONS
OVERNIGHT...WITH AREAS OF FROST EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ELSEWHERE.
APPROPRIATE HEADLINES HAVE BEEN ISSUED.

ANOTHER FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL AFFECT THE STATE LATE THURSDAY AND
THURSDAY NIGHT. TEMPERATURE CHANGES ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM SHOULD
BE MILD.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BATESVILLE AR     56  30  55  32 /  50  40   0   0
CAMDEN AR         66  32  60  31 /  60  40   0   0
HARRISON AR       45  25  55  30 /  60  40   0   0
HOT SPRINGS AR    60  30  59  32 /  40  30   0   0
LITTLE ROCK   AR  62  32  58  34 /  40  30   0   0
MONTICELLO AR     68  34  57  34 /  80  50   0   0
MOUNT IDA AR      56  29  59  32 /  40  30   0   0
MOUNTAIN HOME AR  48  27  55  31 /  60  40   0   0
NEWPORT AR        59  32  55  33 /  50  40   0   0
PINE BLUFF AR     66  34  57  34 /  70  40   0   0
RUSSELLVILLE AR   55  29  59  32 /  40  20   0   0
SEARCY AR         60  32  56  32 /  40  30   0   0
STUTTGART AR      63  34  56  35 /  70  40   0   0
&&

.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LAKE WIND ADVISORY FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 10 PM CDT THIS
EVENING FOR ARKANSAS-BAXTER-BOONE-BRADLEY-CALHOUN-CLARK-CLEBURNE-
CLEVELAND-CONWAY-DALLAS-DESHA-DREW-FAULKNER-FULTON-GARLAND-GRANT-
HOT SPRING-INDEPENDENCE-IZARD-JACKSON-JEFFERSON-JOHNSON-LINCOLN-
LOGAN-LONOKE-MARION-MONROE-MONTGOMERY-NEWTON-OUACHITA-PERRY-PIKE-
POLK-POPE-PRAIRIE-PULASKI-SALINE-SCOTT-SEARCY-SHARP-STONE-VAN
BUREN-WHITE-WOODRUFF-YELL.


FREEZE WARNING FROM 1 AM TO 10 AM CDT TUESDAY FOR BAXTER-BOONE-
CLARK-CLEBURNE-CONWAY-FAULKNER-FULTON-GARLAND-HOT SPRING-
INDEPENDENCE-IZARD-JACKSON-JOHNSON-LOGAN-MARION-MONTGOMERY-
NEWTON-PERRY-PIKE-POLK-POPE-PULASKI-SALINE-SCOTT-SEARCY-SHARP-
STONE-VAN BUREN-WHITE-YELL.


FROST ADVISORY FROM 1 AM TO 10 AM CDT TUESDAY FOR ARKANSAS-
BRADLEY-CALHOUN-CLEVELAND-DALLAS-DESHA-DREW-GRANT-JEFFERSON-
LINCOLN-LONOKE-MONROE-OUACHITA-PRAIRIE-WOODRUFF.

&&

$$

55





    US Dept of Commerce
    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration
    National Weather Service
    1325 East West Highway
    Silver Spring, MD 20910
    Page Author: NWS Internet Services Team
Disclaimer
Information Quality
Credits
Glossary
Privacy Policy
Freedom of Information Act (FOIA)
About Us
Career Opportunities