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000
FXUS64 KLZK 161038 AAA
AFDLZK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR AVIATION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
535 AM CDT TUE SEP 16 2014

.AVIATION...

THERE WILL BE A LOT OF MID/HIGH CLOUDS TODAY SURROUNDING A
STALLED FRONT OVER SOUTHERN ARKANSAS. MOST CLOUDS WILL BE
BETWEEN 5000 AND 10000 FEET. TOWARD THE MISSOURI BORDER...
CLOUDS WILL BE MUCH LOWER THIS MORNING...WITH SOME CEILINGS
BELOW 1000 FEET. MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS WILL BE COMMON OVER THE
NORTH UNTIL LATE MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON.

ANY PRECIPITATION TODAY WILL BE SPOTTY...WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS
IN THE FORECAST.

WINDS TODAY WILL BE NORTHEAST AT 4 TO 8 MPH. (46)
&&

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT

NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL REMAIN OVER THE FORECAST AREA FOR
THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS HELPING A WEAK FRONT WORK THROUGH THE
STATE TODAY...AND BRINGING A COUPLE MORE DISTURBANCES ACROSS THE
REGION ON WED AND THU. SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS MAY
OCCUR ALONG/AHEAD OF THE FRONT TODAY...BUT GENERALLY SPEAKING IT
SHOULD BE A DRY DAY ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. THUS THE NEXT
LEGITIMATE CHANCE OF RAIN WILL BE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH
THURSDAY AS WEAK DISTURBANCES PASSING OVERHEAD IN THE NORTHWEST
UPPER FLOW SPARK OFF SOME RAIN SHOWERS. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN
CLOSE TO SEASONAL NORMS THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. COULD PERHAPS
SEE SOME UPPER 80S OR NEAR 90 IN SOUTHERN AREAS ON BOTH WED AND
THU GIVEN HOW DEEPLY MIXED THE ATMOSPHERE WILL BE.

BY THURSDAY EVENING THE NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL BE DISPLACED
TO THE EAST AS AN UPPER RIDGE BUILDS ACROSS THE FRONT RANGE AND
SOUTHERN PLAINS. INTERESTINGLY ENOUGH THOUGH THE REMNANTS OF THE
EASTERN PACIFIC HURRICANE ODILE WILL BE SHIFTING NORTHEAST FROM
THE BAJA PENINSULA THROUGH NEW MEXICO AND INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS
AS THE RIDGE SHIFTS EAST. A STRONG TROUGH WILL BE MOVING THROUGH
THE NORTHERN PLAINS FRIDAY EVENING...AND WILL PHASE WITH THE
REMNANT TROPICAL ENERGY DURING THE LONG TERM PERIOD.

&&

.LONG TERM...SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY

THE PERIOD WILL BEGIN WITH RIDGING ALOFT...DRY CONDITIONS...AND
AT/ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ON SATURDAY. HOWEVER...A SHARP TROUGH
AND ACCOMPANYING FRONT WILL BE ON THE HORIZON IN THE PLAINS.

THE FRONT WILL PUSH INTO ARKANSAS SATURDAY NIGHT/SUNDAY...AND WILL
BRING CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

DATA IS SHOWING THE FRONT GOING THROUGH...WITH COOLER AND DRIER AIR
TO FOLLOW SUNDAY NIGHT/MONDAY. BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE
EXPECTED BEHIND THE FRONT.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BATESVILLE AR     76  61  79  62 /  20  10  20  30
CAMDEN AR         87  67  88  68 /  20  10  10  20
HARRISON AR       74  62  78  62 /  20  20  30  40
HOT SPRINGS AR    85  66  85  67 /  20  10  20  30
LITTLE ROCK   AR  84  65  85  67 /  20  10  20  40
MONTICELLO AR     87  67  87  68 /  20  10  10  20
MOUNT IDA AR      85  65  86  66 /  20  10  20  30
MOUNTAIN HOME AR  73  61  78  61 /  20  20  30  40
NEWPORT AR        76  60  80  62 /  20  10  20  30
PINE BLUFF AR     86  65  86  67 /  20  10  20  30
RUSSELLVILLE AR   84  65  84  66 /  20  10  20  40
SEARCY AR         81  63  82  64 /  20  10  20  40
STUTTGART AR      83  63  84  65 /  20  10  20  40
&&

.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...64 / LONG TERM...46






000
FXUS64 KLZK 161038 AAA
AFDLZK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR AVIATION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
535 AM CDT TUE SEP 16 2014

.AVIATION...

THERE WILL BE A LOT OF MID/HIGH CLOUDS TODAY SURROUNDING A
STALLED FRONT OVER SOUTHERN ARKANSAS. MOST CLOUDS WILL BE
BETWEEN 5000 AND 10000 FEET. TOWARD THE MISSOURI BORDER...
CLOUDS WILL BE MUCH LOWER THIS MORNING...WITH SOME CEILINGS
BELOW 1000 FEET. MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS WILL BE COMMON OVER THE
NORTH UNTIL LATE MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON.

ANY PRECIPITATION TODAY WILL BE SPOTTY...WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS
IN THE FORECAST.

WINDS TODAY WILL BE NORTHEAST AT 4 TO 8 MPH. (46)
&&

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT

NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL REMAIN OVER THE FORECAST AREA FOR
THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS HELPING A WEAK FRONT WORK THROUGH THE
STATE TODAY...AND BRINGING A COUPLE MORE DISTURBANCES ACROSS THE
REGION ON WED AND THU. SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS MAY
OCCUR ALONG/AHEAD OF THE FRONT TODAY...BUT GENERALLY SPEAKING IT
SHOULD BE A DRY DAY ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. THUS THE NEXT
LEGITIMATE CHANCE OF RAIN WILL BE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH
THURSDAY AS WEAK DISTURBANCES PASSING OVERHEAD IN THE NORTHWEST
UPPER FLOW SPARK OFF SOME RAIN SHOWERS. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN
CLOSE TO SEASONAL NORMS THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. COULD PERHAPS
SEE SOME UPPER 80S OR NEAR 90 IN SOUTHERN AREAS ON BOTH WED AND
THU GIVEN HOW DEEPLY MIXED THE ATMOSPHERE WILL BE.

BY THURSDAY EVENING THE NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL BE DISPLACED
TO THE EAST AS AN UPPER RIDGE BUILDS ACROSS THE FRONT RANGE AND
SOUTHERN PLAINS. INTERESTINGLY ENOUGH THOUGH THE REMNANTS OF THE
EASTERN PACIFIC HURRICANE ODILE WILL BE SHIFTING NORTHEAST FROM
THE BAJA PENINSULA THROUGH NEW MEXICO AND INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS
AS THE RIDGE SHIFTS EAST. A STRONG TROUGH WILL BE MOVING THROUGH
THE NORTHERN PLAINS FRIDAY EVENING...AND WILL PHASE WITH THE
REMNANT TROPICAL ENERGY DURING THE LONG TERM PERIOD.

&&

.LONG TERM...SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY

THE PERIOD WILL BEGIN WITH RIDGING ALOFT...DRY CONDITIONS...AND
AT/ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ON SATURDAY. HOWEVER...A SHARP TROUGH
AND ACCOMPANYING FRONT WILL BE ON THE HORIZON IN THE PLAINS.

THE FRONT WILL PUSH INTO ARKANSAS SATURDAY NIGHT/SUNDAY...AND WILL
BRING CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

DATA IS SHOWING THE FRONT GOING THROUGH...WITH COOLER AND DRIER AIR
TO FOLLOW SUNDAY NIGHT/MONDAY. BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE
EXPECTED BEHIND THE FRONT.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BATESVILLE AR     76  61  79  62 /  20  10  20  30
CAMDEN AR         87  67  88  68 /  20  10  10  20
HARRISON AR       74  62  78  62 /  20  20  30  40
HOT SPRINGS AR    85  66  85  67 /  20  10  20  30
LITTLE ROCK   AR  84  65  85  67 /  20  10  20  40
MONTICELLO AR     87  67  87  68 /  20  10  10  20
MOUNT IDA AR      85  65  86  66 /  20  10  20  30
MOUNTAIN HOME AR  73  61  78  61 /  20  20  30  40
NEWPORT AR        76  60  80  62 /  20  10  20  30
PINE BLUFF AR     86  65  86  67 /  20  10  20  30
RUSSELLVILLE AR   84  65  84  66 /  20  10  20  40
SEARCY AR         81  63  82  64 /  20  10  20  40
STUTTGART AR      83  63  84  65 /  20  10  20  40
&&

.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...64 / LONG TERM...46






000
FXUS64 KLZK 161038 AAA
AFDLZK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR AVIATION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
535 AM CDT TUE SEP 16 2014

.AVIATION...

THERE WILL BE A LOT OF MID/HIGH CLOUDS TODAY SURROUNDING A
STALLED FRONT OVER SOUTHERN ARKANSAS. MOST CLOUDS WILL BE
BETWEEN 5000 AND 10000 FEET. TOWARD THE MISSOURI BORDER...
CLOUDS WILL BE MUCH LOWER THIS MORNING...WITH SOME CEILINGS
BELOW 1000 FEET. MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS WILL BE COMMON OVER THE
NORTH UNTIL LATE MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON.

ANY PRECIPITATION TODAY WILL BE SPOTTY...WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS
IN THE FORECAST.

WINDS TODAY WILL BE NORTHEAST AT 4 TO 8 MPH. (46)
&&

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT

NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL REMAIN OVER THE FORECAST AREA FOR
THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS HELPING A WEAK FRONT WORK THROUGH THE
STATE TODAY...AND BRINGING A COUPLE MORE DISTURBANCES ACROSS THE
REGION ON WED AND THU. SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS MAY
OCCUR ALONG/AHEAD OF THE FRONT TODAY...BUT GENERALLY SPEAKING IT
SHOULD BE A DRY DAY ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. THUS THE NEXT
LEGITIMATE CHANCE OF RAIN WILL BE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH
THURSDAY AS WEAK DISTURBANCES PASSING OVERHEAD IN THE NORTHWEST
UPPER FLOW SPARK OFF SOME RAIN SHOWERS. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN
CLOSE TO SEASONAL NORMS THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. COULD PERHAPS
SEE SOME UPPER 80S OR NEAR 90 IN SOUTHERN AREAS ON BOTH WED AND
THU GIVEN HOW DEEPLY MIXED THE ATMOSPHERE WILL BE.

BY THURSDAY EVENING THE NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL BE DISPLACED
TO THE EAST AS AN UPPER RIDGE BUILDS ACROSS THE FRONT RANGE AND
SOUTHERN PLAINS. INTERESTINGLY ENOUGH THOUGH THE REMNANTS OF THE
EASTERN PACIFIC HURRICANE ODILE WILL BE SHIFTING NORTHEAST FROM
THE BAJA PENINSULA THROUGH NEW MEXICO AND INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS
AS THE RIDGE SHIFTS EAST. A STRONG TROUGH WILL BE MOVING THROUGH
THE NORTHERN PLAINS FRIDAY EVENING...AND WILL PHASE WITH THE
REMNANT TROPICAL ENERGY DURING THE LONG TERM PERIOD.

&&

.LONG TERM...SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY

THE PERIOD WILL BEGIN WITH RIDGING ALOFT...DRY CONDITIONS...AND
AT/ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ON SATURDAY. HOWEVER...A SHARP TROUGH
AND ACCOMPANYING FRONT WILL BE ON THE HORIZON IN THE PLAINS.

THE FRONT WILL PUSH INTO ARKANSAS SATURDAY NIGHT/SUNDAY...AND WILL
BRING CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

DATA IS SHOWING THE FRONT GOING THROUGH...WITH COOLER AND DRIER AIR
TO FOLLOW SUNDAY NIGHT/MONDAY. BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE
EXPECTED BEHIND THE FRONT.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BATESVILLE AR     76  61  79  62 /  20  10  20  30
CAMDEN AR         87  67  88  68 /  20  10  10  20
HARRISON AR       74  62  78  62 /  20  20  30  40
HOT SPRINGS AR    85  66  85  67 /  20  10  20  30
LITTLE ROCK   AR  84  65  85  67 /  20  10  20  40
MONTICELLO AR     87  67  87  68 /  20  10  10  20
MOUNT IDA AR      85  65  86  66 /  20  10  20  30
MOUNTAIN HOME AR  73  61  78  61 /  20  20  30  40
NEWPORT AR        76  60  80  62 /  20  10  20  30
PINE BLUFF AR     86  65  86  67 /  20  10  20  30
RUSSELLVILLE AR   84  65  84  66 /  20  10  20  40
SEARCY AR         81  63  82  64 /  20  10  20  40
STUTTGART AR      83  63  84  65 /  20  10  20  40
&&

.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...64 / LONG TERM...46






000
FXUS64 KLZK 161038 AAA
AFDLZK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR AVIATION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
535 AM CDT TUE SEP 16 2014

.AVIATION...

THERE WILL BE A LOT OF MID/HIGH CLOUDS TODAY SURROUNDING A
STALLED FRONT OVER SOUTHERN ARKANSAS. MOST CLOUDS WILL BE
BETWEEN 5000 AND 10000 FEET. TOWARD THE MISSOURI BORDER...
CLOUDS WILL BE MUCH LOWER THIS MORNING...WITH SOME CEILINGS
BELOW 1000 FEET. MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS WILL BE COMMON OVER THE
NORTH UNTIL LATE MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON.

ANY PRECIPITATION TODAY WILL BE SPOTTY...WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS
IN THE FORECAST.

WINDS TODAY WILL BE NORTHEAST AT 4 TO 8 MPH. (46)
&&

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT

NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL REMAIN OVER THE FORECAST AREA FOR
THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS HELPING A WEAK FRONT WORK THROUGH THE
STATE TODAY...AND BRINGING A COUPLE MORE DISTURBANCES ACROSS THE
REGION ON WED AND THU. SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS MAY
OCCUR ALONG/AHEAD OF THE FRONT TODAY...BUT GENERALLY SPEAKING IT
SHOULD BE A DRY DAY ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. THUS THE NEXT
LEGITIMATE CHANCE OF RAIN WILL BE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH
THURSDAY AS WEAK DISTURBANCES PASSING OVERHEAD IN THE NORTHWEST
UPPER FLOW SPARK OFF SOME RAIN SHOWERS. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN
CLOSE TO SEASONAL NORMS THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. COULD PERHAPS
SEE SOME UPPER 80S OR NEAR 90 IN SOUTHERN AREAS ON BOTH WED AND
THU GIVEN HOW DEEPLY MIXED THE ATMOSPHERE WILL BE.

BY THURSDAY EVENING THE NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL BE DISPLACED
TO THE EAST AS AN UPPER RIDGE BUILDS ACROSS THE FRONT RANGE AND
SOUTHERN PLAINS. INTERESTINGLY ENOUGH THOUGH THE REMNANTS OF THE
EASTERN PACIFIC HURRICANE ODILE WILL BE SHIFTING NORTHEAST FROM
THE BAJA PENINSULA THROUGH NEW MEXICO AND INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS
AS THE RIDGE SHIFTS EAST. A STRONG TROUGH WILL BE MOVING THROUGH
THE NORTHERN PLAINS FRIDAY EVENING...AND WILL PHASE WITH THE
REMNANT TROPICAL ENERGY DURING THE LONG TERM PERIOD.

&&

.LONG TERM...SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY

THE PERIOD WILL BEGIN WITH RIDGING ALOFT...DRY CONDITIONS...AND
AT/ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ON SATURDAY. HOWEVER...A SHARP TROUGH
AND ACCOMPANYING FRONT WILL BE ON THE HORIZON IN THE PLAINS.

THE FRONT WILL PUSH INTO ARKANSAS SATURDAY NIGHT/SUNDAY...AND WILL
BRING CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

DATA IS SHOWING THE FRONT GOING THROUGH...WITH COOLER AND DRIER AIR
TO FOLLOW SUNDAY NIGHT/MONDAY. BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE
EXPECTED BEHIND THE FRONT.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BATESVILLE AR     76  61  79  62 /  20  10  20  30
CAMDEN AR         87  67  88  68 /  20  10  10  20
HARRISON AR       74  62  78  62 /  20  20  30  40
HOT SPRINGS AR    85  66  85  67 /  20  10  20  30
LITTLE ROCK   AR  84  65  85  67 /  20  10  20  40
MONTICELLO AR     87  67  87  68 /  20  10  10  20
MOUNT IDA AR      85  65  86  66 /  20  10  20  30
MOUNTAIN HOME AR  73  61  78  61 /  20  20  30  40
NEWPORT AR        76  60  80  62 /  20  10  20  30
PINE BLUFF AR     86  65  86  67 /  20  10  20  30
RUSSELLVILLE AR   84  65  84  66 /  20  10  20  40
SEARCY AR         81  63  82  64 /  20  10  20  40
STUTTGART AR      83  63  84  65 /  20  10  20  40
&&

.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...64 / LONG TERM...46






000
FXUS64 KLZK 160923
AFDLZK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
423 AM CDT TUE SEP 16 2014

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT

NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL REMAIN OVER THE FORECAST AREA FOR
THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS HELPING A WEAK FRONT WORK THROUGH THE
STATE TODAY...AND BRINGING A COUPLE MORE DISTURBANCES ACROSS THE
REGION ON WED AND THU. SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS MAY
OCCUR ALONG/AHEAD OF THE FRONT TODAY...BUT GENERALLY SPEAKING IT
SHOULD BE A DRY DAY ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. THUS THE NEXT
LEGITIMATE CHANCE OF RAIN WILL BE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH
THURSDAY AS WEAK DISTURBANCES PASSING OVERHEAD IN THE NORTHWEST
UPPER FLOW SPARK OFF SOME RAIN SHOWERS. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN
CLOSE TO SEASONAL NORMS THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. COULD PERHAPS
SEE SOME UPPER 80S OR NEAR 90 IN SOUTHERN AREAS ON BOTH WED AND
THU GIVEN HOW DEEPLY MIXED THE ATMOSPHERE WILL BE.

BY THURSDAY EVENING THE NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL BE DISPLACED
TO THE EAST AS AN UPPER RIDGE BUILDS ACROSS THE FRONT RANGE AND
SOUTHERN PLAINS. INTERESTINGLY ENOUGH THOUGH THE REMNANTS OF THE
EASTERN PACIFIC HURRICANE ODILE WILL BE SHIFTING NORTHEAST FROM
THE BAJA PENINSULA THROUGH NEW MEXICO AND INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS
AS THE RIDGE SHIFTS EAST. A STRONG TROUGH WILL BE MOVING THROUGH
THE NORTHERN PLAINS FRIDAY EVENING...AND WILL PHASE WITH THE
REMNANT TROPICAL ENERGY DURING THE LONG TERM PERIOD.

&&

.LONG TERM...SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY

THE PERIOD WILL BEGIN WITH RIDGING ALOFT...DRY CONDITIONS...AND
AT/ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ON SATURDAY. HOWEVER...A SHARP TROUGH
AND ACCOMPANYING FRONT WILL BE ON THE HORIZON IN THE PLAINS.

THE FRONT WILL PUSH INTO ARKANSAS SATURDAY NIGHT/SUNDAY...AND WILL
BRING CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

DATA IS SHOWING THE FRONT GOING THROUGH...WITH COOLER AND DRIER AIR
TO FOLLOW SUNDAY NIGHT/MONDAY. BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE
EXPECTED BEHIND THE FRONT.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BATESVILLE AR     76  61  79  62 /  20  10  20  30
CAMDEN AR         87  67  88  68 /  20  10  10  20
HARRISON AR       74  62  78  62 /  20  20  30  40
HOT SPRINGS AR    85  66  85  67 /  20  10  20  30
LITTLE ROCK   AR  84  65  85  67 /  20  10  20  40
MONTICELLO AR     87  67  87  68 /  20  10  10  20
MOUNT IDA AR      85  65  86  66 /  20  10  20  30
MOUNTAIN HOME AR  73  61  78  61 /  20  20  30  40
NEWPORT AR        76  60  80  62 /  20  10  20  30
PINE BLUFF AR     86  65  86  67 /  20  10  20  30
RUSSELLVILLE AR   84  65  84  66 /  20  10  20  40
SEARCY AR         81  63  82  64 /  20  10  20  40
STUTTGART AR      83  63  84  65 /  20  10  20  40
&&

.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...64 / LONG TERM...46








000
FXUS64 KLZK 160923
AFDLZK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
423 AM CDT TUE SEP 16 2014

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT

NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL REMAIN OVER THE FORECAST AREA FOR
THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS HELPING A WEAK FRONT WORK THROUGH THE
STATE TODAY...AND BRINGING A COUPLE MORE DISTURBANCES ACROSS THE
REGION ON WED AND THU. SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS MAY
OCCUR ALONG/AHEAD OF THE FRONT TODAY...BUT GENERALLY SPEAKING IT
SHOULD BE A DRY DAY ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. THUS THE NEXT
LEGITIMATE CHANCE OF RAIN WILL BE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH
THURSDAY AS WEAK DISTURBANCES PASSING OVERHEAD IN THE NORTHWEST
UPPER FLOW SPARK OFF SOME RAIN SHOWERS. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN
CLOSE TO SEASONAL NORMS THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. COULD PERHAPS
SEE SOME UPPER 80S OR NEAR 90 IN SOUTHERN AREAS ON BOTH WED AND
THU GIVEN HOW DEEPLY MIXED THE ATMOSPHERE WILL BE.

BY THURSDAY EVENING THE NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL BE DISPLACED
TO THE EAST AS AN UPPER RIDGE BUILDS ACROSS THE FRONT RANGE AND
SOUTHERN PLAINS. INTERESTINGLY ENOUGH THOUGH THE REMNANTS OF THE
EASTERN PACIFIC HURRICANE ODILE WILL BE SHIFTING NORTHEAST FROM
THE BAJA PENINSULA THROUGH NEW MEXICO AND INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS
AS THE RIDGE SHIFTS EAST. A STRONG TROUGH WILL BE MOVING THROUGH
THE NORTHERN PLAINS FRIDAY EVENING...AND WILL PHASE WITH THE
REMNANT TROPICAL ENERGY DURING THE LONG TERM PERIOD.

&&

.LONG TERM...SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY

THE PERIOD WILL BEGIN WITH RIDGING ALOFT...DRY CONDITIONS...AND
AT/ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ON SATURDAY. HOWEVER...A SHARP TROUGH
AND ACCOMPANYING FRONT WILL BE ON THE HORIZON IN THE PLAINS.

THE FRONT WILL PUSH INTO ARKANSAS SATURDAY NIGHT/SUNDAY...AND WILL
BRING CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

DATA IS SHOWING THE FRONT GOING THROUGH...WITH COOLER AND DRIER AIR
TO FOLLOW SUNDAY NIGHT/MONDAY. BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE
EXPECTED BEHIND THE FRONT.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BATESVILLE AR     76  61  79  62 /  20  10  20  30
CAMDEN AR         87  67  88  68 /  20  10  10  20
HARRISON AR       74  62  78  62 /  20  20  30  40
HOT SPRINGS AR    85  66  85  67 /  20  10  20  30
LITTLE ROCK   AR  84  65  85  67 /  20  10  20  40
MONTICELLO AR     87  67  87  68 /  20  10  10  20
MOUNT IDA AR      85  65  86  66 /  20  10  20  30
MOUNTAIN HOME AR  73  61  78  61 /  20  20  30  40
NEWPORT AR        76  60  80  62 /  20  10  20  30
PINE BLUFF AR     86  65  86  67 /  20  10  20  30
RUSSELLVILLE AR   84  65  84  66 /  20  10  20  40
SEARCY AR         81  63  82  64 /  20  10  20  40
STUTTGART AR      83  63  84  65 /  20  10  20  40
&&

.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...64 / LONG TERM...46







000
FXUS64 KLZK 152346 AAA
AFDLZK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
646 PM CDT MON SEP 15 2014

.AVIATION...
VCSH POSSIBLE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN SITES FOR A FEW HOURS THIS
EVENING. COLD FRONT MOVING INTO NORTHERN ARKANSAS THIS
EVENING...WITH MVFR CONDITIONS MOVING IN BEHIND THE FRONT.
LIGHT/VARIABLE WINDS TONIGHT WILL BECOME NORTHEAST DURING THE DAY
TUESDAY...HELPING KEEP MVFR CONDITIONS ACROSS THE REGION.
&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 221 PM CDT MON SEP 15 2014/

SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT
MODELS IN REASONABLY GOOD AGREEMENT THIS AFTERNOON AS FAR AS THE
SYNOPTIC SCALE IS CONCERNED WITH THE USUAL SMALLER SCALE DIFFERENCES
HAVING TO BE DEALT WITH. WITH THE TIMING DIFFERENCES BEING WHAT THEY
ARE WITH THE SUBTLE FEATURES...FEEL THE BEST APPROACH IS TO BLEND
THE DIFFERENCES BETWEEN THE MODELS WITH A SLIGHT LEAN TOWARDS THE
SLIGHTLY MORE CONSISTENT GFS.

WEAK UPPER WAVE CONTINUES TO PULL AWAY FROM THE REGION WITH AN
OVERALL DOWNWARD TREND TO THE LIGHT PRECIPITATION THAT BEEN FALLING
OVER MAINLY THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE STATE. ATTENTION WILL NOW TURN
TO AN ADVANCING COLD FRONT THAT IS CURRENTLY SAGGING SOUTH THROUGH
THE CENTRAL PLAINS. BOUNDARY IS EXPECTED TO PUSH INTO NORTH CENTRAL
ARKANSAS AROUND MIDNIGHT TONIGHT AND REACH THE LOUISIANA BORDER BY
EARLY WEDNESDAY. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL
ACCOMPANY THE BOUNDARY AS IT MOVES THROUGH.

MEANWHILE...UPPER PATTERN WILL BEGIN TO AMPLIFY AS STRONG UPPER
RIDGING BEGINS TO BUILD OVER THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST WITH SUBSEQUENT
DOWNSTREAM TROUGHING OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE COUNTRY. THIS IN
TURN WILL PLACE THE FORECAST AREA IN A PREDOMINATE NORTHWEST FLOW
FOR BOTH WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. SEVERAL WEAK UPPER WAVES WILL MOVE
THROUGH THE PREVAILING FLOW AND KEEP SLIGHT CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION
IN THE FORECAST. RAINFALL WILL GENERALLY BE LIGHT DURING THIS TIME.

BEST CHANCES FOR RAIN MAY END UP BEING THURSDAY AS MOISTURE FROM
TROPICAL SYSTEM ODILE SPREADS THROUGH CENTRAL TEXAS AND LOUISIANA.
WHILE DEEPEST MOISTURE CURRENTLY FORECAST TO STAY TO THE SOUTH OF
THE AREA FOR NOW...WILL INCREASE RAIN CHANCES INTO THE CHANCE
CATEGORY OVER THE SOUTHWEST AND TAKE A WAIT AND SEE APPROACH. RAIN
CHANCES WILL COME TO AN END AS THE EXTENDED PERIOD STARTS.

NUMERICAL GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO RUN WARM AND WILL UNDERCUT THROUGH
THE PERIOD...ESPECIALLY DURING THE DAY. WITH EXPECTED CLOUD COVER
AND SPOTTY PRECIP...CANT SEE TEMPERATURES GETTING TO ABOVE NORMAL AS
CURRENTLY INDICATED BY THE MAV/MEX.

LONG TERM...FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT
FAIRLY QUIET WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL BE IN PLACE AT THE START OF THE
LONG TERM...WITH TEMPERATURES RUNNING CLOSE TO NORMAL FOR THIS TIME
OF YEAR. RAIN CHANCES WILL BE ABSENT FROM THE FORECAST THROUGH
SATURDAY AND WINDS WILL BE GENERALLY OUT OF THE SOUTH AS THE REMNANT
UPPER RIDGE REMAINS OVER THE AREA.

LATE ON SATURDAY...A COLD FRONT WILL BE APPROACHING THE STATE FROM
THE NORTHWEST. THERE IS SOME TIMING DIFFERENCE FROM LONG RANGE MODEL
SOLUTIONS...DUE TO POSITIONING/SPEED OF THE PARENT TROUGH PASSING
THROUGH THE UPPER PLAINS. GIVEN THIS...RAIN CHANCES MAY NOT BEGIN
UNTIL EARLY SUNDAY ACROSS THE NORTHWEST AND COULD LINGER THROUGH
PART OF THE DAY ON MONDAY. AFTER THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH...SLIGHTLY
COOLER AIR WILL BE SEEN AS NORTHWEST FLOW SETS UP FOR A FEW DAYS.
&&

.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&

$$

AVIATION...58




000
FXUS64 KLZK 151922
AFDLZK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
221 PM CDT MON SEP 15 2014

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT
MODELS IN REASONABLY GOOD AGREEMENT THIS AFTERNOON AS FAR AS THE
SYNOPTIC SCALE IS CONCERNED WITH THE USUAL SMALLER SCALE DIFFERENCES
HAVING TO BE DEALT WITH. WITH THE TIMING DIFFERENCES BEING WHAT THEY
ARE WITH THE SUBTLE FEATURES...FEEL THE BEST APPROACH IS TO BLEND
THE DIFFERENCES BETWEEN THE MODELS WITH A SLIGHT LEAN TOWARDS THE
SLIGHTLY MORE CONSISTENT GFS.

WEAK UPPER WAVE CONTINUES TO PULL AWAY FROM THE REGION WITH AN
OVERALL DOWNWARD TREND TO THE LIGHT PRECIPITATION THAT BEEN FALLING
OVER MAINLY THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE STATE. ATTENTION WILL NOW TURN
TO AN ADVANCING COLD FRONT THAT IS CURRENTLY SAGGING SOUTH THROUGH
THE CENTRAL PLAINS. BOUNDARY IS EXPECTED TO PUSH INTO NORTH CENTRAL
ARKNASAS AROUND MIDNIGHT TONIGHT AND REACH THE LOUISIANA BORDER BY
EARLY WEDNESDAY. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL
ACCOMPANY THE BOUNDARY AS IT MOVES THROUGH.

MEANWHILE...UPPER PATTERN WILL BEGIN TO AMPLIFY AS STRONG UPPER
RIDGING BEGINS TO BUILD OVER THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST WITH SUBSEQUENT
DOWNSTREAM TROUGHING OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE COUNTRY. THIS IN
TURN WILL PLACE THE FORECAST AREA IN A PREDOMINATE NORTHWEST FLOW
FOR BOTH WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. SEVERAL WEAK UPPER WAVES WILL MOVE
THROUGH THE PREVAILING FLOW AND KEEP SLIGHT CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION
IN THE FORECAST. RAINFALL WILL GENERALLY BE LIGHT DURING THIS TIME.

BEST CHANCES FOR RAIN MAY END UP BEING THURSDAY AS MOISTURE FROM
TROPICAL SYSTEM ODILE SPREADS THROUGH CENTRAL TEXAS AND LOUISIANA.
WHILE DEEPEST MOISTURE CURRENTLY FORECAST TO STAY TO THE SOUTH OF
THE AREA FOR NOW...WILL INCREASE RAIN CHANCES INTO THE CHANCE
CATEGORY OVER THE SOUTHWEST AND TAKE A WAIT AND SEE APPROACH. RAIN
CHANCES WILL COME TO AN END AS THE EXTENDED PERIOD STARTS.

NUMERICAL GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO RUN WARM AND WILL UNDERCUT THROUGH
THE PERIOD...ESPECIALLY DURING THE DAY. WITH EXPECTED CLOUD COVER
AND SPOTTY PRECIP...CANT SEE TEMPERATURES GETTING TO ABOVE NORMAL AS
CURRENTLY INDICATED BY THE MAV/MEX.
&&

.LONG TERM...FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT
FAIRLY QUIET WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL BE IN PLACE AT THE START OF THE
LONG TERM...WITH TEMPERATURES RUNNING CLOSE TO NORMAL FOR THIS TIME
OF YEAR. RAIN CHANCES WILL BE ABSENT FROM THE FORECAST THROUGH
SATURDAY AND WINDS WILL BE GENERALLY OUT OF THE SOUTH AS THE REMNANT
UPPER RIDGE REMAINS OVER THE AREA.

LATE ON SATURDAY...A COLD FRONT WILL BE APPROACHING THE STATE FROM
THE NORTHWEST. THERE IS SOME TIMING DIFFERENCE FROM LONG RANGE MODEL
SOLUTIONS...DUE TO POSITIONING/SPEED OF THE PARENT TROUGH PASSING
THROUGH THE UPPER PLAINS. GIVEN THIS...RAIN CHANCES MAY NOT BEGIN
UNTIL EARLY SUNDAY ACROSS THE NORTHWEST AND COULD LINGER THROUGH
PART OF THE DAY ON MONDAY. AFTER THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH...SLIGHTLY
COOLER AIR WILL BE SEEN AS NORTHWEST FLOW SETS UP FOR A FEW DAYS. &&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BATESVILLE AR     63  76  61  79 /  20  20  10  20
CAMDEN AR         67  86  67  87 /  20  20  10  20
HARRISON AR       62  76  62  79 /  20  20  10  20
HOT SPRINGS AR    66  84  66  84 /  20  20  10  20
LITTLE ROCK   AR  66  83  65  82 /  20  20  10  20
MONTICELLO AR     67  87  66  87 /  20  20  10  20
MOUNT IDA AR      66  84  65  84 /  20  20  10  20
MOUNTAIN HOME AR  62  74  60  77 /  20  20  10  20
NEWPORT AR        64  76  60  79 /  20  20  10  20
PINE BLUFF AR     67  85  65  85 /  20  20  10  20
RUSSELLVILLE AR   64  81  64  81 /  20  20  10  20
SEARCY AR         65  79  63  81 /  20  20  10  20
STUTTGART AR      66  83  64  83 /  20  20  10  20
&&

.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...56 / LONG TERM...226





000
FXUS64 KLZK 151922
AFDLZK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
221 PM CDT MON SEP 15 2014

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT
MODELS IN REASONABLY GOOD AGREEMENT THIS AFTERNOON AS FAR AS THE
SYNOPTIC SCALE IS CONCERNED WITH THE USUAL SMALLER SCALE DIFFERENCES
HAVING TO BE DEALT WITH. WITH THE TIMING DIFFERENCES BEING WHAT THEY
ARE WITH THE SUBTLE FEATURES...FEEL THE BEST APPROACH IS TO BLEND
THE DIFFERENCES BETWEEN THE MODELS WITH A SLIGHT LEAN TOWARDS THE
SLIGHTLY MORE CONSISTENT GFS.

WEAK UPPER WAVE CONTINUES TO PULL AWAY FROM THE REGION WITH AN
OVERALL DOWNWARD TREND TO THE LIGHT PRECIPITATION THAT BEEN FALLING
OVER MAINLY THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE STATE. ATTENTION WILL NOW TURN
TO AN ADVANCING COLD FRONT THAT IS CURRENTLY SAGGING SOUTH THROUGH
THE CENTRAL PLAINS. BOUNDARY IS EXPECTED TO PUSH INTO NORTH CENTRAL
ARKNASAS AROUND MIDNIGHT TONIGHT AND REACH THE LOUISIANA BORDER BY
EARLY WEDNESDAY. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL
ACCOMPANY THE BOUNDARY AS IT MOVES THROUGH.

MEANWHILE...UPPER PATTERN WILL BEGIN TO AMPLIFY AS STRONG UPPER
RIDGING BEGINS TO BUILD OVER THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST WITH SUBSEQUENT
DOWNSTREAM TROUGHING OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE COUNTRY. THIS IN
TURN WILL PLACE THE FORECAST AREA IN A PREDOMINATE NORTHWEST FLOW
FOR BOTH WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. SEVERAL WEAK UPPER WAVES WILL MOVE
THROUGH THE PREVAILING FLOW AND KEEP SLIGHT CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION
IN THE FORECAST. RAINFALL WILL GENERALLY BE LIGHT DURING THIS TIME.

BEST CHANCES FOR RAIN MAY END UP BEING THURSDAY AS MOISTURE FROM
TROPICAL SYSTEM ODILE SPREADS THROUGH CENTRAL TEXAS AND LOUISIANA.
WHILE DEEPEST MOISTURE CURRENTLY FORECAST TO STAY TO THE SOUTH OF
THE AREA FOR NOW...WILL INCREASE RAIN CHANCES INTO THE CHANCE
CATEGORY OVER THE SOUTHWEST AND TAKE A WAIT AND SEE APPROACH. RAIN
CHANCES WILL COME TO AN END AS THE EXTENDED PERIOD STARTS.

NUMERICAL GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO RUN WARM AND WILL UNDERCUT THROUGH
THE PERIOD...ESPECIALLY DURING THE DAY. WITH EXPECTED CLOUD COVER
AND SPOTTY PRECIP...CANT SEE TEMPERATURES GETTING TO ABOVE NORMAL AS
CURRENTLY INDICATED BY THE MAV/MEX.
&&

.LONG TERM...FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT
FAIRLY QUIET WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL BE IN PLACE AT THE START OF THE
LONG TERM...WITH TEMPERATURES RUNNING CLOSE TO NORMAL FOR THIS TIME
OF YEAR. RAIN CHANCES WILL BE ABSENT FROM THE FORECAST THROUGH
SATURDAY AND WINDS WILL BE GENERALLY OUT OF THE SOUTH AS THE REMNANT
UPPER RIDGE REMAINS OVER THE AREA.

LATE ON SATURDAY...A COLD FRONT WILL BE APPROACHING THE STATE FROM
THE NORTHWEST. THERE IS SOME TIMING DIFFERENCE FROM LONG RANGE MODEL
SOLUTIONS...DUE TO POSITIONING/SPEED OF THE PARENT TROUGH PASSING
THROUGH THE UPPER PLAINS. GIVEN THIS...RAIN CHANCES MAY NOT BEGIN
UNTIL EARLY SUNDAY ACROSS THE NORTHWEST AND COULD LINGER THROUGH
PART OF THE DAY ON MONDAY. AFTER THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH...SLIGHTLY
COOLER AIR WILL BE SEEN AS NORTHWEST FLOW SETS UP FOR A FEW DAYS. &&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BATESVILLE AR     63  76  61  79 /  20  20  10  20
CAMDEN AR         67  86  67  87 /  20  20  10  20
HARRISON AR       62  76  62  79 /  20  20  10  20
HOT SPRINGS AR    66  84  66  84 /  20  20  10  20
LITTLE ROCK   AR  66  83  65  82 /  20  20  10  20
MONTICELLO AR     67  87  66  87 /  20  20  10  20
MOUNT IDA AR      66  84  65  84 /  20  20  10  20
MOUNTAIN HOME AR  62  74  60  77 /  20  20  10  20
NEWPORT AR        64  76  60  79 /  20  20  10  20
PINE BLUFF AR     67  85  65  85 /  20  20  10  20
RUSSELLVILLE AR   64  81  64  81 /  20  20  10  20
SEARCY AR         65  79  63  81 /  20  20  10  20
STUTTGART AR      66  83  64  83 /  20  20  10  20
&&

.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...56 / LONG TERM...226






000
FXUS64 KLZK 151727 AAA
AFDLZK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
1227 PM CDT MON SEP 15 2014

.UPDATE...

UPDATED TO INCLUDE 18Z AVIATION DISCUSSION.

&&

.AVIATION...

VFR CONDITIONS WILL BE SEEN FOR THE REST OF TODAY AND MUCH OF THE
NIGHT AS WIDESPREAD HIGH CLOUDS CONTINUE OVER THE AREA WITH
SCATTERED 3-5KFT CEILINGS OCCASIONALLY. SOME SCATTERED SHOWER
ACTIVITY WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD...WITH BEST
CHANCES THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING. BEFORE SUNRISE...EXPECT A
REDUCTION IN VISIBILITY WHICH WILL LIKELY LEAD TO MVFR
CONDITIONS...WITH LOWER CATEGORIES POSSIBLE AT KHRO/KBPK. EXPECT A
SLOW IMPROVEMENT TO VFR BY MID MORNING TUESDAY. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT
DURING THE TAF WINDOW WITH A SWITCH TO NORTH AS A WEAK FRONT MOVES
THROUGH THE AREA.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1054 AM CDT MON SEP 15 2014/

SYNOPSIS...
AREA OF LIGHT PRECIPITATION CONTINUES TO SLOWLY DIMINISH BOTH IN
COVERAGE AND INTENSITY AND TTHIS TREND IS LIKELY TO CONTINUE
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS. WILL NEED TO CARRY SLIGHT CHANCE POPS
AREA WIDE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS AS A FRONTAL BOUNDARY DROPS
TOWARDS THE REGION.

UPDATE THIS MORNING WILL TO REWORK POPS SLIGHTLY BASED ON CURRENT
TRENDS. ALL OTHER FORECAST PARAMETERS WILL BE LEFT AS IT. ALL
UPDATES OUT.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 650 AM CDT MON SEP 15 2014/

AVIATION...

THERE WILL BE AN ABUNDANCE OF MID AND HIGH CLOUDS THROUGH
TONIGHT...WITH MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS ACROSS ARKANSAS.

ANY LOW CLOUDS/MVFR CONDITIONS WILL BE CONFINED TO THE
NORTHERN COUNTIES AS A COLD FRONT SLIDES INTO THE STATE FROM
MISSOURI. SURROUNDING THE FRONT...THERE WILL BE PATCHY LIGHT
RAIN NORTH OF LITTLE ROCK. IF CONDITIONS GO MVFR...THE
MOST LIKELY TIME FRAME WILL BE TOWARD DAWN TUESDAY.

WINDS WILL BE NOT MUCH OF AN ISSUE AS THE FRONT ARRIVES.
IN GENERAL...VARIABLE WINDS ARE EXPECTED AT 5 MPH OR
LESS. (46)

SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT

WEAK ASCENT AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING SHORTWAVE DISTURBANCE IS
GENERATING SOME LIGHT RAIN ACROSS PORTIONS OF NORTHWEST ARKANSAS
THIS MORNING. HIGH RESOLUTION GUIDANCE SEEMS TO HAVE A GOOD HANDLE
ON THIS AND SHOWS LIGHT RAIN SPREADING ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF
THE STATE THROUGH THE MORNING. DESPITE RADAR IMAGERY OVERNIGHT
PRECIP HAS BEEN A LITTLE HIT AND MISS IN THE OBSERVATION NETWORK SO
LIMITED RAIN CHANCES TO ABOUT 30 PERCENT ON THE HIGH SIDE TODAY. AS
FAR AS HIGHS GO TODAY...ANOTHER DAY OF WELL BELOW NORMAL TEMPS ARE
FORECAST. CLOUD COVER AND RAINFALL ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE
STATE SHOULD LIMIT HIGHS THERE TO THE UPPER 70S...WHERE AS MID 80S
WILL BE SEEN IN THE SOUTH.

MEANWHILE ANOTHER STRONGER SHORTWAVE IS CURRENTLY DIVING SOUTHEAST
THROUGH THE CENTRAL PLAINS...AND WILL SHIFT EAST TO THE OHIO RIVER
VALLEY BY THIS EVENING. THIS WILL HELP DRIVE A FRONT SOUTH INTO
ARKANSAS BY AROUND MIDNIGHT TONIGHT...AND LIKELY INTO THE SOUTHERN
PART OF THE STATE BY DAYBREAK OR MID MORNING ON TUE. SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY SOME THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE PRESENT IN THE
VICINITY OF THE FRONT AS IT MOVES THROUGH THE STATE...WITH PRECIP
CHANCES FADING THROUGH THE DAY TUESDAY. THE FRONT SHOULD STALL OUT
IN THE SOUTH BEFORE BECOMING MORE NORTHWEST-SOUTHEAST ORIENTED
ACROSS THE STATE BY LATE TUE NIGHT INTO WED MORNING AS THE WANING
INFLUENCE OF SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NE BATTLES INCREASING
SOUTH FLOW OVER THE ARKLATEX REGION IN RESPONSE TO LOW PRESSURE
DEVELOPING IN THE PLAINS. UPPER LEVEL FLOW WILL REMAIN OUT OF THE
NORTHWEST DURING THIS TIME AS AN UPPER RIDGE BUILDS OUT WEST...AND
WILL FEATURE A FEW DISTURBANCES PASSING THROUGH WED AND THU. THIS
WILL RESULT IN MORE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY SOME
THUNDERSTORMS IN THE VICINITY OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY. IT LOOKS LIKE
THE BEST CHANCES WILL BE IN CENTRAL OR NORTHERN ARKANSAS BUT THIS
MAY CHANGE DEPENDING ON WHERE THE FRONT ENDS UP AND WHERE THE
IMPULSES TRACK OVERHEAD.

LASTLY ONE OF THE MORE INTERESTING ASPECTS OF THE SHORT TERM
FORECAST ARE THE TEMP FORECASTS FOR TUE-THU. MODEL OUTPUT IS SHOWING
NEAR 90 DEGREE HIGHS FOR PARTS OF SRN AND SWRN ARKANSAS...AREAS
SOUTH/WEST OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY EACH DAY ESSENTIALLY. UPPER LEVEL
HEIGHTS...NOR H85 TEMPS WOULD SUGGEST HIGHS WILL BE ABOVE SEASONAL
NORMS THESE DAYS...YET MODEL OUTPUT SAYS OTHERWISE. GRANTED MODEL
FORECASTS ARE ONLY GOING 1-2 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL...BUT NEVERTHELESS
ABOVE NORMAL. IT IS HARD TO COMPLETELY TOSS OUT THE NUMERICAL AND
MOS GUIDANCE SO I DID GO AHEAD AND BUMP UP HIGHS TUE-THU...BUT I
ALSO STILL UNDERCUT THEM BY A COUPLE OF DEGREES.

LONG TERM...FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY

A NORTHWEST WIND FLOW ALOFT WILL BE REPLACED BY SOME RIDGING FROM
THE SOUTHERN PLAINS TOWARD THE END OF THE PERIOD.

AT THE SURFACE...THE PERIOD WILL START WITH CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE
OVER THE OHIO VALLEY AND NEW ENGLAND. THE HIGH WILL BE EXPANSIVE
ENOUGH TO KEEP ARKANSAS MOSTLY DRY...WITH BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES
IN THE FORECAST.

AS RIDGING OCCURS...AND AS THE HIGH MOVES TO THE EAST...A MORE
SOUTHERLY WIND FLOW AT THE SURFACE WILL BRING WARMER TEMPERATURES.
AT THE SAME TIME...A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE NORTH.

GIVEN RIDGING...THERE IS SOME DOUBT THAT THE FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH
THE REGION. THE FRONT WILL PROBABLY HANG UP...WITH AT LEAST ISOLATED
TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SURROUNDING THE FRONT HEADING
INTO NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BATESVILLE AR     63  77  60  80 /  20  10  20  30
CAMDEN AR         68  88  66  87 /  20  20  10  10
HARRISON AR       61  73  61  78 /  20  10  30  30
HOT SPRINGS AR    67  85  65  84 /  20  20  10  20
LITTLE ROCK   AR  67  83  64  83 /  20  20  10  20
MONTICELLO AR     67  87  65  86 /  20  20  10  10
MOUNT IDA AR      64  85  64  84 /  20  20  20  20
MOUNTAIN HOME AR  62  74  59  78 /  20  10  30  30
NEWPORT AR        64  76  59  79 /  20  20  20  30
PINE BLUFF AR     66  85  64  84 /  20  20  10  10
RUSSELLVILLE AR   65  82  63  82 /  20  20  20  20
SEARCY AR         65  79  62  81 /  20  20  20  20
STUTTGART AR      65  83  63  82 /  20  20  10  20
&&

.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&

$$


AVIATION...226





000
FXUS64 KLZK 151727 AAA
AFDLZK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
1227 PM CDT MON SEP 15 2014

.UPDATE...

UPDATED TO INCLUDE 18Z AVIATION DISCUSSION.

&&

.AVIATION...

VFR CONDITIONS WILL BE SEEN FOR THE REST OF TODAY AND MUCH OF THE
NIGHT AS WIDESPREAD HIGH CLOUDS CONTINUE OVER THE AREA WITH
SCATTERED 3-5KFT CEILINGS OCCASIONALLY. SOME SCATTERED SHOWER
ACTIVITY WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD...WITH BEST
CHANCES THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING. BEFORE SUNRISE...EXPECT A
REDUCTION IN VISIBILITY WHICH WILL LIKELY LEAD TO MVFR
CONDITIONS...WITH LOWER CATEGORIES POSSIBLE AT KHRO/KBPK. EXPECT A
SLOW IMPROVEMENT TO VFR BY MID MORNING TUESDAY. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT
DURING THE TAF WINDOW WITH A SWITCH TO NORTH AS A WEAK FRONT MOVES
THROUGH THE AREA.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1054 AM CDT MON SEP 15 2014/

SYNOPSIS...
AREA OF LIGHT PRECIPITATION CONTINUES TO SLOWLY DIMINISH BOTH IN
COVERAGE AND INTENSITY AND TTHIS TREND IS LIKELY TO CONTINUE
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS. WILL NEED TO CARRY SLIGHT CHANCE POPS
AREA WIDE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS AS A FRONTAL BOUNDARY DROPS
TOWARDS THE REGION.

UPDATE THIS MORNING WILL TO REWORK POPS SLIGHTLY BASED ON CURRENT
TRENDS. ALL OTHER FORECAST PARAMETERS WILL BE LEFT AS IT. ALL
UPDATES OUT.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 650 AM CDT MON SEP 15 2014/

AVIATION...

THERE WILL BE AN ABUNDANCE OF MID AND HIGH CLOUDS THROUGH
TONIGHT...WITH MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS ACROSS ARKANSAS.

ANY LOW CLOUDS/MVFR CONDITIONS WILL BE CONFINED TO THE
NORTHERN COUNTIES AS A COLD FRONT SLIDES INTO THE STATE FROM
MISSOURI. SURROUNDING THE FRONT...THERE WILL BE PATCHY LIGHT
RAIN NORTH OF LITTLE ROCK. IF CONDITIONS GO MVFR...THE
MOST LIKELY TIME FRAME WILL BE TOWARD DAWN TUESDAY.

WINDS WILL BE NOT MUCH OF AN ISSUE AS THE FRONT ARRIVES.
IN GENERAL...VARIABLE WINDS ARE EXPECTED AT 5 MPH OR
LESS. (46)

SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT

WEAK ASCENT AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING SHORTWAVE DISTURBANCE IS
GENERATING SOME LIGHT RAIN ACROSS PORTIONS OF NORTHWEST ARKANSAS
THIS MORNING. HIGH RESOLUTION GUIDANCE SEEMS TO HAVE A GOOD HANDLE
ON THIS AND SHOWS LIGHT RAIN SPREADING ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF
THE STATE THROUGH THE MORNING. DESPITE RADAR IMAGERY OVERNIGHT
PRECIP HAS BEEN A LITTLE HIT AND MISS IN THE OBSERVATION NETWORK SO
LIMITED RAIN CHANCES TO ABOUT 30 PERCENT ON THE HIGH SIDE TODAY. AS
FAR AS HIGHS GO TODAY...ANOTHER DAY OF WELL BELOW NORMAL TEMPS ARE
FORECAST. CLOUD COVER AND RAINFALL ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE
STATE SHOULD LIMIT HIGHS THERE TO THE UPPER 70S...WHERE AS MID 80S
WILL BE SEEN IN THE SOUTH.

MEANWHILE ANOTHER STRONGER SHORTWAVE IS CURRENTLY DIVING SOUTHEAST
THROUGH THE CENTRAL PLAINS...AND WILL SHIFT EAST TO THE OHIO RIVER
VALLEY BY THIS EVENING. THIS WILL HELP DRIVE A FRONT SOUTH INTO
ARKANSAS BY AROUND MIDNIGHT TONIGHT...AND LIKELY INTO THE SOUTHERN
PART OF THE STATE BY DAYBREAK OR MID MORNING ON TUE. SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY SOME THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE PRESENT IN THE
VICINITY OF THE FRONT AS IT MOVES THROUGH THE STATE...WITH PRECIP
CHANCES FADING THROUGH THE DAY TUESDAY. THE FRONT SHOULD STALL OUT
IN THE SOUTH BEFORE BECOMING MORE NORTHWEST-SOUTHEAST ORIENTED
ACROSS THE STATE BY LATE TUE NIGHT INTO WED MORNING AS THE WANING
INFLUENCE OF SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NE BATTLES INCREASING
SOUTH FLOW OVER THE ARKLATEX REGION IN RESPONSE TO LOW PRESSURE
DEVELOPING IN THE PLAINS. UPPER LEVEL FLOW WILL REMAIN OUT OF THE
NORTHWEST DURING THIS TIME AS AN UPPER RIDGE BUILDS OUT WEST...AND
WILL FEATURE A FEW DISTURBANCES PASSING THROUGH WED AND THU. THIS
WILL RESULT IN MORE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY SOME
THUNDERSTORMS IN THE VICINITY OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY. IT LOOKS LIKE
THE BEST CHANCES WILL BE IN CENTRAL OR NORTHERN ARKANSAS BUT THIS
MAY CHANGE DEPENDING ON WHERE THE FRONT ENDS UP AND WHERE THE
IMPULSES TRACK OVERHEAD.

LASTLY ONE OF THE MORE INTERESTING ASPECTS OF THE SHORT TERM
FORECAST ARE THE TEMP FORECASTS FOR TUE-THU. MODEL OUTPUT IS SHOWING
NEAR 90 DEGREE HIGHS FOR PARTS OF SRN AND SWRN ARKANSAS...AREAS
SOUTH/WEST OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY EACH DAY ESSENTIALLY. UPPER LEVEL
HEIGHTS...NOR H85 TEMPS WOULD SUGGEST HIGHS WILL BE ABOVE SEASONAL
NORMS THESE DAYS...YET MODEL OUTPUT SAYS OTHERWISE. GRANTED MODEL
FORECASTS ARE ONLY GOING 1-2 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL...BUT NEVERTHELESS
ABOVE NORMAL. IT IS HARD TO COMPLETELY TOSS OUT THE NUMERICAL AND
MOS GUIDANCE SO I DID GO AHEAD AND BUMP UP HIGHS TUE-THU...BUT I
ALSO STILL UNDERCUT THEM BY A COUPLE OF DEGREES.

LONG TERM...FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY

A NORTHWEST WIND FLOW ALOFT WILL BE REPLACED BY SOME RIDGING FROM
THE SOUTHERN PLAINS TOWARD THE END OF THE PERIOD.

AT THE SURFACE...THE PERIOD WILL START WITH CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE
OVER THE OHIO VALLEY AND NEW ENGLAND. THE HIGH WILL BE EXPANSIVE
ENOUGH TO KEEP ARKANSAS MOSTLY DRY...WITH BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES
IN THE FORECAST.

AS RIDGING OCCURS...AND AS THE HIGH MOVES TO THE EAST...A MORE
SOUTHERLY WIND FLOW AT THE SURFACE WILL BRING WARMER TEMPERATURES.
AT THE SAME TIME...A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE NORTH.

GIVEN RIDGING...THERE IS SOME DOUBT THAT THE FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH
THE REGION. THE FRONT WILL PROBABLY HANG UP...WITH AT LEAST ISOLATED
TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SURROUNDING THE FRONT HEADING
INTO NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BATESVILLE AR     63  77  60  80 /  20  10  20  30
CAMDEN AR         68  88  66  87 /  20  20  10  10
HARRISON AR       61  73  61  78 /  20  10  30  30
HOT SPRINGS AR    67  85  65  84 /  20  20  10  20
LITTLE ROCK   AR  67  83  64  83 /  20  20  10  20
MONTICELLO AR     67  87  65  86 /  20  20  10  10
MOUNT IDA AR      64  85  64  84 /  20  20  20  20
MOUNTAIN HOME AR  62  74  59  78 /  20  10  30  30
NEWPORT AR        64  76  59  79 /  20  20  20  30
PINE BLUFF AR     66  85  64  84 /  20  20  10  10
RUSSELLVILLE AR   65  82  63  82 /  20  20  20  20
SEARCY AR         65  79  62  81 /  20  20  20  20
STUTTGART AR      65  83  63  82 /  20  20  10  20
&&

.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&

$$


AVIATION...226





000
FXUS64 KLZK 151727 AAA
AFDLZK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
1227 PM CDT MON SEP 15 2014

.UPDATE...

UPDATED TO INCLUDE 18Z AVIATION DISCUSSION.

&&

.AVIATION...

VFR CONDITIONS WILL BE SEEN FOR THE REST OF TODAY AND MUCH OF THE
NIGHT AS WIDESPREAD HIGH CLOUDS CONTINUE OVER THE AREA WITH
SCATTERED 3-5KFT CEILINGS OCCASIONALLY. SOME SCATTERED SHOWER
ACTIVITY WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD...WITH BEST
CHANCES THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING. BEFORE SUNRISE...EXPECT A
REDUCTION IN VISIBILITY WHICH WILL LIKELY LEAD TO MVFR
CONDITIONS...WITH LOWER CATEGORIES POSSIBLE AT KHRO/KBPK. EXPECT A
SLOW IMPROVEMENT TO VFR BY MID MORNING TUESDAY. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT
DURING THE TAF WINDOW WITH A SWITCH TO NORTH AS A WEAK FRONT MOVES
THROUGH THE AREA.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1054 AM CDT MON SEP 15 2014/

SYNOPSIS...
AREA OF LIGHT PRECIPITATION CONTINUES TO SLOWLY DIMINISH BOTH IN
COVERAGE AND INTENSITY AND TTHIS TREND IS LIKELY TO CONTINUE
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS. WILL NEED TO CARRY SLIGHT CHANCE POPS
AREA WIDE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS AS A FRONTAL BOUNDARY DROPS
TOWARDS THE REGION.

UPDATE THIS MORNING WILL TO REWORK POPS SLIGHTLY BASED ON CURRENT
TRENDS. ALL OTHER FORECAST PARAMETERS WILL BE LEFT AS IT. ALL
UPDATES OUT.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 650 AM CDT MON SEP 15 2014/

AVIATION...

THERE WILL BE AN ABUNDANCE OF MID AND HIGH CLOUDS THROUGH
TONIGHT...WITH MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS ACROSS ARKANSAS.

ANY LOW CLOUDS/MVFR CONDITIONS WILL BE CONFINED TO THE
NORTHERN COUNTIES AS A COLD FRONT SLIDES INTO THE STATE FROM
MISSOURI. SURROUNDING THE FRONT...THERE WILL BE PATCHY LIGHT
RAIN NORTH OF LITTLE ROCK. IF CONDITIONS GO MVFR...THE
MOST LIKELY TIME FRAME WILL BE TOWARD DAWN TUESDAY.

WINDS WILL BE NOT MUCH OF AN ISSUE AS THE FRONT ARRIVES.
IN GENERAL...VARIABLE WINDS ARE EXPECTED AT 5 MPH OR
LESS. (46)

SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT

WEAK ASCENT AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING SHORTWAVE DISTURBANCE IS
GENERATING SOME LIGHT RAIN ACROSS PORTIONS OF NORTHWEST ARKANSAS
THIS MORNING. HIGH RESOLUTION GUIDANCE SEEMS TO HAVE A GOOD HANDLE
ON THIS AND SHOWS LIGHT RAIN SPREADING ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF
THE STATE THROUGH THE MORNING. DESPITE RADAR IMAGERY OVERNIGHT
PRECIP HAS BEEN A LITTLE HIT AND MISS IN THE OBSERVATION NETWORK SO
LIMITED RAIN CHANCES TO ABOUT 30 PERCENT ON THE HIGH SIDE TODAY. AS
FAR AS HIGHS GO TODAY...ANOTHER DAY OF WELL BELOW NORMAL TEMPS ARE
FORECAST. CLOUD COVER AND RAINFALL ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE
STATE SHOULD LIMIT HIGHS THERE TO THE UPPER 70S...WHERE AS MID 80S
WILL BE SEEN IN THE SOUTH.

MEANWHILE ANOTHER STRONGER SHORTWAVE IS CURRENTLY DIVING SOUTHEAST
THROUGH THE CENTRAL PLAINS...AND WILL SHIFT EAST TO THE OHIO RIVER
VALLEY BY THIS EVENING. THIS WILL HELP DRIVE A FRONT SOUTH INTO
ARKANSAS BY AROUND MIDNIGHT TONIGHT...AND LIKELY INTO THE SOUTHERN
PART OF THE STATE BY DAYBREAK OR MID MORNING ON TUE. SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY SOME THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE PRESENT IN THE
VICINITY OF THE FRONT AS IT MOVES THROUGH THE STATE...WITH PRECIP
CHANCES FADING THROUGH THE DAY TUESDAY. THE FRONT SHOULD STALL OUT
IN THE SOUTH BEFORE BECOMING MORE NORTHWEST-SOUTHEAST ORIENTED
ACROSS THE STATE BY LATE TUE NIGHT INTO WED MORNING AS THE WANING
INFLUENCE OF SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NE BATTLES INCREASING
SOUTH FLOW OVER THE ARKLATEX REGION IN RESPONSE TO LOW PRESSURE
DEVELOPING IN THE PLAINS. UPPER LEVEL FLOW WILL REMAIN OUT OF THE
NORTHWEST DURING THIS TIME AS AN UPPER RIDGE BUILDS OUT WEST...AND
WILL FEATURE A FEW DISTURBANCES PASSING THROUGH WED AND THU. THIS
WILL RESULT IN MORE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY SOME
THUNDERSTORMS IN THE VICINITY OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY. IT LOOKS LIKE
THE BEST CHANCES WILL BE IN CENTRAL OR NORTHERN ARKANSAS BUT THIS
MAY CHANGE DEPENDING ON WHERE THE FRONT ENDS UP AND WHERE THE
IMPULSES TRACK OVERHEAD.

LASTLY ONE OF THE MORE INTERESTING ASPECTS OF THE SHORT TERM
FORECAST ARE THE TEMP FORECASTS FOR TUE-THU. MODEL OUTPUT IS SHOWING
NEAR 90 DEGREE HIGHS FOR PARTS OF SRN AND SWRN ARKANSAS...AREAS
SOUTH/WEST OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY EACH DAY ESSENTIALLY. UPPER LEVEL
HEIGHTS...NOR H85 TEMPS WOULD SUGGEST HIGHS WILL BE ABOVE SEASONAL
NORMS THESE DAYS...YET MODEL OUTPUT SAYS OTHERWISE. GRANTED MODEL
FORECASTS ARE ONLY GOING 1-2 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL...BUT NEVERTHELESS
ABOVE NORMAL. IT IS HARD TO COMPLETELY TOSS OUT THE NUMERICAL AND
MOS GUIDANCE SO I DID GO AHEAD AND BUMP UP HIGHS TUE-THU...BUT I
ALSO STILL UNDERCUT THEM BY A COUPLE OF DEGREES.

LONG TERM...FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY

A NORTHWEST WIND FLOW ALOFT WILL BE REPLACED BY SOME RIDGING FROM
THE SOUTHERN PLAINS TOWARD THE END OF THE PERIOD.

AT THE SURFACE...THE PERIOD WILL START WITH CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE
OVER THE OHIO VALLEY AND NEW ENGLAND. THE HIGH WILL BE EXPANSIVE
ENOUGH TO KEEP ARKANSAS MOSTLY DRY...WITH BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES
IN THE FORECAST.

AS RIDGING OCCURS...AND AS THE HIGH MOVES TO THE EAST...A MORE
SOUTHERLY WIND FLOW AT THE SURFACE WILL BRING WARMER TEMPERATURES.
AT THE SAME TIME...A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE NORTH.

GIVEN RIDGING...THERE IS SOME DOUBT THAT THE FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH
THE REGION. THE FRONT WILL PROBABLY HANG UP...WITH AT LEAST ISOLATED
TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SURROUNDING THE FRONT HEADING
INTO NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BATESVILLE AR     63  77  60  80 /  20  10  20  30
CAMDEN AR         68  88  66  87 /  20  20  10  10
HARRISON AR       61  73  61  78 /  20  10  30  30
HOT SPRINGS AR    67  85  65  84 /  20  20  10  20
LITTLE ROCK   AR  67  83  64  83 /  20  20  10  20
MONTICELLO AR     67  87  65  86 /  20  20  10  10
MOUNT IDA AR      64  85  64  84 /  20  20  20  20
MOUNTAIN HOME AR  62  74  59  78 /  20  10  30  30
NEWPORT AR        64  76  59  79 /  20  20  20  30
PINE BLUFF AR     66  85  64  84 /  20  20  10  10
RUSSELLVILLE AR   65  82  63  82 /  20  20  20  20
SEARCY AR         65  79  62  81 /  20  20  20  20
STUTTGART AR      65  83  63  82 /  20  20  10  20
&&

.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&

$$


AVIATION...226





000
FXUS64 KLZK 151727 AAA
AFDLZK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
1227 PM CDT MON SEP 15 2014

.UPDATE...

UPDATED TO INCLUDE 18Z AVIATION DISCUSSION.

&&

.AVIATION...

VFR CONDITIONS WILL BE SEEN FOR THE REST OF TODAY AND MUCH OF THE
NIGHT AS WIDESPREAD HIGH CLOUDS CONTINUE OVER THE AREA WITH
SCATTERED 3-5KFT CEILINGS OCCASIONALLY. SOME SCATTERED SHOWER
ACTIVITY WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD...WITH BEST
CHANCES THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING. BEFORE SUNRISE...EXPECT A
REDUCTION IN VISIBILITY WHICH WILL LIKELY LEAD TO MVFR
CONDITIONS...WITH LOWER CATEGORIES POSSIBLE AT KHRO/KBPK. EXPECT A
SLOW IMPROVEMENT TO VFR BY MID MORNING TUESDAY. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT
DURING THE TAF WINDOW WITH A SWITCH TO NORTH AS A WEAK FRONT MOVES
THROUGH THE AREA.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1054 AM CDT MON SEP 15 2014/

SYNOPSIS...
AREA OF LIGHT PRECIPITATION CONTINUES TO SLOWLY DIMINISH BOTH IN
COVERAGE AND INTENSITY AND TTHIS TREND IS LIKELY TO CONTINUE
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS. WILL NEED TO CARRY SLIGHT CHANCE POPS
AREA WIDE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS AS A FRONTAL BOUNDARY DROPS
TOWARDS THE REGION.

UPDATE THIS MORNING WILL TO REWORK POPS SLIGHTLY BASED ON CURRENT
TRENDS. ALL OTHER FORECAST PARAMETERS WILL BE LEFT AS IT. ALL
UPDATES OUT.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 650 AM CDT MON SEP 15 2014/

AVIATION...

THERE WILL BE AN ABUNDANCE OF MID AND HIGH CLOUDS THROUGH
TONIGHT...WITH MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS ACROSS ARKANSAS.

ANY LOW CLOUDS/MVFR CONDITIONS WILL BE CONFINED TO THE
NORTHERN COUNTIES AS A COLD FRONT SLIDES INTO THE STATE FROM
MISSOURI. SURROUNDING THE FRONT...THERE WILL BE PATCHY LIGHT
RAIN NORTH OF LITTLE ROCK. IF CONDITIONS GO MVFR...THE
MOST LIKELY TIME FRAME WILL BE TOWARD DAWN TUESDAY.

WINDS WILL BE NOT MUCH OF AN ISSUE AS THE FRONT ARRIVES.
IN GENERAL...VARIABLE WINDS ARE EXPECTED AT 5 MPH OR
LESS. (46)

SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT

WEAK ASCENT AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING SHORTWAVE DISTURBANCE IS
GENERATING SOME LIGHT RAIN ACROSS PORTIONS OF NORTHWEST ARKANSAS
THIS MORNING. HIGH RESOLUTION GUIDANCE SEEMS TO HAVE A GOOD HANDLE
ON THIS AND SHOWS LIGHT RAIN SPREADING ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF
THE STATE THROUGH THE MORNING. DESPITE RADAR IMAGERY OVERNIGHT
PRECIP HAS BEEN A LITTLE HIT AND MISS IN THE OBSERVATION NETWORK SO
LIMITED RAIN CHANCES TO ABOUT 30 PERCENT ON THE HIGH SIDE TODAY. AS
FAR AS HIGHS GO TODAY...ANOTHER DAY OF WELL BELOW NORMAL TEMPS ARE
FORECAST. CLOUD COVER AND RAINFALL ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE
STATE SHOULD LIMIT HIGHS THERE TO THE UPPER 70S...WHERE AS MID 80S
WILL BE SEEN IN THE SOUTH.

MEANWHILE ANOTHER STRONGER SHORTWAVE IS CURRENTLY DIVING SOUTHEAST
THROUGH THE CENTRAL PLAINS...AND WILL SHIFT EAST TO THE OHIO RIVER
VALLEY BY THIS EVENING. THIS WILL HELP DRIVE A FRONT SOUTH INTO
ARKANSAS BY AROUND MIDNIGHT TONIGHT...AND LIKELY INTO THE SOUTHERN
PART OF THE STATE BY DAYBREAK OR MID MORNING ON TUE. SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY SOME THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE PRESENT IN THE
VICINITY OF THE FRONT AS IT MOVES THROUGH THE STATE...WITH PRECIP
CHANCES FADING THROUGH THE DAY TUESDAY. THE FRONT SHOULD STALL OUT
IN THE SOUTH BEFORE BECOMING MORE NORTHWEST-SOUTHEAST ORIENTED
ACROSS THE STATE BY LATE TUE NIGHT INTO WED MORNING AS THE WANING
INFLUENCE OF SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NE BATTLES INCREASING
SOUTH FLOW OVER THE ARKLATEX REGION IN RESPONSE TO LOW PRESSURE
DEVELOPING IN THE PLAINS. UPPER LEVEL FLOW WILL REMAIN OUT OF THE
NORTHWEST DURING THIS TIME AS AN UPPER RIDGE BUILDS OUT WEST...AND
WILL FEATURE A FEW DISTURBANCES PASSING THROUGH WED AND THU. THIS
WILL RESULT IN MORE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY SOME
THUNDERSTORMS IN THE VICINITY OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY. IT LOOKS LIKE
THE BEST CHANCES WILL BE IN CENTRAL OR NORTHERN ARKANSAS BUT THIS
MAY CHANGE DEPENDING ON WHERE THE FRONT ENDS UP AND WHERE THE
IMPULSES TRACK OVERHEAD.

LASTLY ONE OF THE MORE INTERESTING ASPECTS OF THE SHORT TERM
FORECAST ARE THE TEMP FORECASTS FOR TUE-THU. MODEL OUTPUT IS SHOWING
NEAR 90 DEGREE HIGHS FOR PARTS OF SRN AND SWRN ARKANSAS...AREAS
SOUTH/WEST OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY EACH DAY ESSENTIALLY. UPPER LEVEL
HEIGHTS...NOR H85 TEMPS WOULD SUGGEST HIGHS WILL BE ABOVE SEASONAL
NORMS THESE DAYS...YET MODEL OUTPUT SAYS OTHERWISE. GRANTED MODEL
FORECASTS ARE ONLY GOING 1-2 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL...BUT NEVERTHELESS
ABOVE NORMAL. IT IS HARD TO COMPLETELY TOSS OUT THE NUMERICAL AND
MOS GUIDANCE SO I DID GO AHEAD AND BUMP UP HIGHS TUE-THU...BUT I
ALSO STILL UNDERCUT THEM BY A COUPLE OF DEGREES.

LONG TERM...FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY

A NORTHWEST WIND FLOW ALOFT WILL BE REPLACED BY SOME RIDGING FROM
THE SOUTHERN PLAINS TOWARD THE END OF THE PERIOD.

AT THE SURFACE...THE PERIOD WILL START WITH CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE
OVER THE OHIO VALLEY AND NEW ENGLAND. THE HIGH WILL BE EXPANSIVE
ENOUGH TO KEEP ARKANSAS MOSTLY DRY...WITH BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES
IN THE FORECAST.

AS RIDGING OCCURS...AND AS THE HIGH MOVES TO THE EAST...A MORE
SOUTHERLY WIND FLOW AT THE SURFACE WILL BRING WARMER TEMPERATURES.
AT THE SAME TIME...A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE NORTH.

GIVEN RIDGING...THERE IS SOME DOUBT THAT THE FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH
THE REGION. THE FRONT WILL PROBABLY HANG UP...WITH AT LEAST ISOLATED
TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SURROUNDING THE FRONT HEADING
INTO NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BATESVILLE AR     63  77  60  80 /  20  10  20  30
CAMDEN AR         68  88  66  87 /  20  20  10  10
HARRISON AR       61  73  61  78 /  20  10  30  30
HOT SPRINGS AR    67  85  65  84 /  20  20  10  20
LITTLE ROCK   AR  67  83  64  83 /  20  20  10  20
MONTICELLO AR     67  87  65  86 /  20  20  10  10
MOUNT IDA AR      64  85  64  84 /  20  20  20  20
MOUNTAIN HOME AR  62  74  59  78 /  20  10  30  30
NEWPORT AR        64  76  59  79 /  20  20  20  30
PINE BLUFF AR     66  85  64  84 /  20  20  10  10
RUSSELLVILLE AR   65  82  63  82 /  20  20  20  20
SEARCY AR         65  79  62  81 /  20  20  20  20
STUTTGART AR      65  83  63  82 /  20  20  10  20
&&

.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&

$$


AVIATION...226





000
FXUS64 KLZK 151554
AFDLZK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
1054 AM CDT MON SEP 15 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
AREA OF LIGHT PRECIPITATION CONTINUES TO SLOWLY DIMINISH BOTH IN
COVERAGE AND INTENSITY AND TTHIS TREND IS LIKELY TO CONTINUE
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS. WILL NEED TO CARRY SLIGHT CHANCE POPS
AREA WIDE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS AS A FRONTAL BOUNDARY DROPS
TOWARDS THE REGION.

UPDATE THIS MORNING WILL TO REWORK POPS SLIGHTLY BASED ON CURRENT
TRENDS. ALL OTHER FORECAST PARAMETERS WILL BE LEFT AS IT. ALL
UPDATES OUT.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 650 AM CDT MON SEP 15 2014/

AVIATION...

THERE WILL BE AN ABUNDANCE OF MID AND HIGH CLOUDS THROUGH
TONIGHT...WITH MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS ACROSS ARKANSAS.

ANY LOW CLOUDS/MVFR CONDITIONS WILL BE CONFINED TO THE
NORTHERN COUNTIES AS A COLD FRONT SLIDES INTO THE STATE FROM
MISSOURI. SURROUNDING THE FRONT...THERE WILL BE PATCHY LIGHT
RAIN NORTH OF LITTLE ROCK. IF CONDITIONS GO MVFR...THE
MOST LIKELY TIME FRAME WILL BE TOWARD DAWN TUESDAY.

WINDS WILL BE NOT MUCH OF AN ISSUE AS THE FRONT ARRIVES.
IN GENERAL...VARIABLE WINDS ARE EXPECTED AT 5 MPH OR
LESS. (46)

SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT

WEAK ASCENT AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING SHORTWAVE DISTURBANCE IS
GENERATING SOME LIGHT RAIN ACROSS PORTIONS OF NORTHWEST ARKANSAS
THIS MORNING. HIGH RESOLUTION GUIDANCE SEEMS TO HAVE A GOOD HANDLE
ON THIS AND SHOWS LIGHT RAIN SPREADING ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF
THE STATE THROUGH THE MORNING. DESPITE RADAR IMAGERY OVERNIGHT
PRECIP HAS BEEN A LITTLE HIT AND MISS IN THE OBSERVATION NETWORK SO
LIMITED RAIN CHANCES TO ABOUT 30 PERCENT ON THE HIGH SIDE TODAY. AS
FAR AS HIGHS GO TODAY...ANOTHER DAY OF WELL BELOW NORMAL TEMPS ARE
FORECAST. CLOUD COVER AND RAINFALL ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE
STATE SHOULD LIMIT HIGHS THERE TO THE UPPER 70S...WHERE AS MID 80S
WILL BE SEEN IN THE SOUTH.

MEANWHILE ANOTHER STRONGER SHORTWAVE IS CURRENTLY DIVING SOUTHEAST
THROUGH THE CENTRAL PLAINS...AND WILL SHIFT EAST TO THE OHIO RIVER
VALLEY BY THIS EVENING. THIS WILL HELP DRIVE A FRONT SOUTH INTO
ARKANSAS BY AROUND MIDNIGHT TONIGHT...AND LIKELY INTO THE SOUTHERN
PART OF THE STATE BY DAYBREAK OR MID MORNING ON TUE. SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY SOME THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE PRESENT IN THE
VICINITY OF THE FRONT AS IT MOVES THROUGH THE STATE...WITH PRECIP
CHANCES FADING THROUGH THE DAY TUESDAY. THE FRONT SHOULD STALL OUT
IN THE SOUTH BEFORE BECOMING MORE NORTHWEST-SOUTHEAST ORIENTED
ACROSS THE STATE BY LATE TUE NIGHT INTO WED MORNING AS THE WANING
INFLUENCE OF SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NE BATTLES INCREASING
SOUTH FLOW OVER THE ARKLATEX REGION IN RESPONSE TO LOW PRESSURE
DEVELOPING IN THE PLAINS. UPPER LEVEL FLOW WILL REMAIN OUT OF THE
NORTHWEST DURING THIS TIME AS AN UPPER RIDGE BUILDS OUT WEST...AND
WILL FEATURE A FEW DISTURBANCES PASSING THROUGH WED AND THU. THIS
WILL RESULT IN MORE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY SOME
THUNDERSTORMS IN THE VICINITY OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY. IT LOOKS LIKE
THE BEST CHANCES WILL BE IN CENTRAL OR NORTHERN ARKANSAS BUT THIS
MAY CHANGE DEPENDING ON WHERE THE FRONT ENDS UP AND WHERE THE
IMPULSES TRACK OVERHEAD.

LASTLY ONE OF THE MORE INTERESTING ASPECTS OF THE SHORT TERM
FORECAST ARE THE TEMP FORECASTS FOR TUE-THU. MODEL OUTPUT IS SHOWING
NEAR 90 DEGREE HIGHS FOR PARTS OF SRN AND SWRN ARKANSAS...AREAS
SOUTH/WEST OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY EACH DAY ESSENTIALLY. UPPER LEVEL
HEIGHTS...NOR H85 TEMPS WOULD SUGGEST HIGHS WILL BE ABOVE SEASONAL
NORMS THESE DAYS...YET MODEL OUTPUT SAYS OTHERWISE. GRANTED MODEL
FORECASTS ARE ONLY GOING 1-2 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL...BUT NEVERTHELESS
ABOVE NORMAL. IT IS HARD TO COMPLETELY TOSS OUT THE NUMERICAL AND
MOS GUIDANCE SO I DID GO AHEAD AND BUMP UP HIGHS TUE-THU...BUT I
ALSO STILL UNDERCUT THEM BY A COUPLE OF DEGREES.

LONG TERM...FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY

A NORTHWEST WIND FLOW ALOFT WILL BE REPLACED BY SOME RIDGING FROM
THE SOUTHERN PLAINS TOWARD THE END OF THE PERIOD.

AT THE SURFACE...THE PERIOD WILL START WITH CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE
OVER THE OHIO VALLEY AND NEW ENGLAND. THE HIGH WILL BE EXPANSIVE
ENOUGH TO KEEP ARKANSAS MOSTLY DRY...WITH BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES
IN THE FORECAST.

AS RIDGING OCCURS...AND AS THE HIGH MOVES TO THE EAST...A MORE
SOUTHERLY WIND FLOW AT THE SURFACE WILL BRING WARMER TEMPERATURES.
AT THE SAME TIME...A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE NORTH.

GIVEN RIDGING...THERE IS SOME DOUBT THAT THE FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH
THE REGION. THE FRONT WILL PROBABLY HANG UP...WITH AT LEAST ISOLATED
TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SURROUNDING THE FRONT HEADING
INTO NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BATESVILLE AR     78  63  77  60 /  50  20  10  20
CAMDEN AR         86  68  88  66 /  20  20  20  10
HARRISON AR       78  61  73  61 /  50  20  10  30
HOT SPRINGS AR    82  67  85  65 /  20  20  20  10
LITTLE ROCK   AR  83  67  83  64 /  30  20  20  10
MONTICELLO AR     86  67  87  65 /  20  20  20  10
MOUNT IDA AR      81  64  85  64 /  30  20  20  20
MOUNTAIN HOME AR  78  62  74  59 /  50  20  10  30
NEWPORT AR        78  64  76  59 /  40  20  20  20
PINE BLUFF AR     84  66  85  64 /  20  20  20  10
RUSSELLVILLE AR   80  65  82  63 /  40  20  20  20
SEARCY AR         81  65  79  62 /  40  20  20  20
STUTTGART AR      82  65  83  63 /  20  20  20  10
&&

.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&

$$


AVIATION...56








000
FXUS64 KLZK 151554
AFDLZK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
1054 AM CDT MON SEP 15 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
AREA OF LIGHT PRECIPITATION CONTINUES TO SLOWLY DIMINISH BOTH IN
COVERAGE AND INTENSITY AND TTHIS TREND IS LIKELY TO CONTINUE
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS. WILL NEED TO CARRY SLIGHT CHANCE POPS
AREA WIDE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS AS A FRONTAL BOUNDARY DROPS
TOWARDS THE REGION.

UPDATE THIS MORNING WILL TO REWORK POPS SLIGHTLY BASED ON CURRENT
TRENDS. ALL OTHER FORECAST PARAMETERS WILL BE LEFT AS IT. ALL
UPDATES OUT.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 650 AM CDT MON SEP 15 2014/

AVIATION...

THERE WILL BE AN ABUNDANCE OF MID AND HIGH CLOUDS THROUGH
TONIGHT...WITH MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS ACROSS ARKANSAS.

ANY LOW CLOUDS/MVFR CONDITIONS WILL BE CONFINED TO THE
NORTHERN COUNTIES AS A COLD FRONT SLIDES INTO THE STATE FROM
MISSOURI. SURROUNDING THE FRONT...THERE WILL BE PATCHY LIGHT
RAIN NORTH OF LITTLE ROCK. IF CONDITIONS GO MVFR...THE
MOST LIKELY TIME FRAME WILL BE TOWARD DAWN TUESDAY.

WINDS WILL BE NOT MUCH OF AN ISSUE AS THE FRONT ARRIVES.
IN GENERAL...VARIABLE WINDS ARE EXPECTED AT 5 MPH OR
LESS. (46)

SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT

WEAK ASCENT AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING SHORTWAVE DISTURBANCE IS
GENERATING SOME LIGHT RAIN ACROSS PORTIONS OF NORTHWEST ARKANSAS
THIS MORNING. HIGH RESOLUTION GUIDANCE SEEMS TO HAVE A GOOD HANDLE
ON THIS AND SHOWS LIGHT RAIN SPREADING ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF
THE STATE THROUGH THE MORNING. DESPITE RADAR IMAGERY OVERNIGHT
PRECIP HAS BEEN A LITTLE HIT AND MISS IN THE OBSERVATION NETWORK SO
LIMITED RAIN CHANCES TO ABOUT 30 PERCENT ON THE HIGH SIDE TODAY. AS
FAR AS HIGHS GO TODAY...ANOTHER DAY OF WELL BELOW NORMAL TEMPS ARE
FORECAST. CLOUD COVER AND RAINFALL ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE
STATE SHOULD LIMIT HIGHS THERE TO THE UPPER 70S...WHERE AS MID 80S
WILL BE SEEN IN THE SOUTH.

MEANWHILE ANOTHER STRONGER SHORTWAVE IS CURRENTLY DIVING SOUTHEAST
THROUGH THE CENTRAL PLAINS...AND WILL SHIFT EAST TO THE OHIO RIVER
VALLEY BY THIS EVENING. THIS WILL HELP DRIVE A FRONT SOUTH INTO
ARKANSAS BY AROUND MIDNIGHT TONIGHT...AND LIKELY INTO THE SOUTHERN
PART OF THE STATE BY DAYBREAK OR MID MORNING ON TUE. SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY SOME THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE PRESENT IN THE
VICINITY OF THE FRONT AS IT MOVES THROUGH THE STATE...WITH PRECIP
CHANCES FADING THROUGH THE DAY TUESDAY. THE FRONT SHOULD STALL OUT
IN THE SOUTH BEFORE BECOMING MORE NORTHWEST-SOUTHEAST ORIENTED
ACROSS THE STATE BY LATE TUE NIGHT INTO WED MORNING AS THE WANING
INFLUENCE OF SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NE BATTLES INCREASING
SOUTH FLOW OVER THE ARKLATEX REGION IN RESPONSE TO LOW PRESSURE
DEVELOPING IN THE PLAINS. UPPER LEVEL FLOW WILL REMAIN OUT OF THE
NORTHWEST DURING THIS TIME AS AN UPPER RIDGE BUILDS OUT WEST...AND
WILL FEATURE A FEW DISTURBANCES PASSING THROUGH WED AND THU. THIS
WILL RESULT IN MORE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY SOME
THUNDERSTORMS IN THE VICINITY OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY. IT LOOKS LIKE
THE BEST CHANCES WILL BE IN CENTRAL OR NORTHERN ARKANSAS BUT THIS
MAY CHANGE DEPENDING ON WHERE THE FRONT ENDS UP AND WHERE THE
IMPULSES TRACK OVERHEAD.

LASTLY ONE OF THE MORE INTERESTING ASPECTS OF THE SHORT TERM
FORECAST ARE THE TEMP FORECASTS FOR TUE-THU. MODEL OUTPUT IS SHOWING
NEAR 90 DEGREE HIGHS FOR PARTS OF SRN AND SWRN ARKANSAS...AREAS
SOUTH/WEST OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY EACH DAY ESSENTIALLY. UPPER LEVEL
HEIGHTS...NOR H85 TEMPS WOULD SUGGEST HIGHS WILL BE ABOVE SEASONAL
NORMS THESE DAYS...YET MODEL OUTPUT SAYS OTHERWISE. GRANTED MODEL
FORECASTS ARE ONLY GOING 1-2 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL...BUT NEVERTHELESS
ABOVE NORMAL. IT IS HARD TO COMPLETELY TOSS OUT THE NUMERICAL AND
MOS GUIDANCE SO I DID GO AHEAD AND BUMP UP HIGHS TUE-THU...BUT I
ALSO STILL UNDERCUT THEM BY A COUPLE OF DEGREES.

LONG TERM...FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY

A NORTHWEST WIND FLOW ALOFT WILL BE REPLACED BY SOME RIDGING FROM
THE SOUTHERN PLAINS TOWARD THE END OF THE PERIOD.

AT THE SURFACE...THE PERIOD WILL START WITH CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE
OVER THE OHIO VALLEY AND NEW ENGLAND. THE HIGH WILL BE EXPANSIVE
ENOUGH TO KEEP ARKANSAS MOSTLY DRY...WITH BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES
IN THE FORECAST.

AS RIDGING OCCURS...AND AS THE HIGH MOVES TO THE EAST...A MORE
SOUTHERLY WIND FLOW AT THE SURFACE WILL BRING WARMER TEMPERATURES.
AT THE SAME TIME...A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE NORTH.

GIVEN RIDGING...THERE IS SOME DOUBT THAT THE FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH
THE REGION. THE FRONT WILL PROBABLY HANG UP...WITH AT LEAST ISOLATED
TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SURROUNDING THE FRONT HEADING
INTO NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BATESVILLE AR     78  63  77  60 /  50  20  10  20
CAMDEN AR         86  68  88  66 /  20  20  20  10
HARRISON AR       78  61  73  61 /  50  20  10  30
HOT SPRINGS AR    82  67  85  65 /  20  20  20  10
LITTLE ROCK   AR  83  67  83  64 /  30  20  20  10
MONTICELLO AR     86  67  87  65 /  20  20  20  10
MOUNT IDA AR      81  64  85  64 /  30  20  20  20
MOUNTAIN HOME AR  78  62  74  59 /  50  20  10  30
NEWPORT AR        78  64  76  59 /  40  20  20  20
PINE BLUFF AR     84  66  85  64 /  20  20  20  10
RUSSELLVILLE AR   80  65  82  63 /  40  20  20  20
SEARCY AR         81  65  79  62 /  40  20  20  20
STUTTGART AR      82  65  83  63 /  20  20  20  10
&&

.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&

$$


AVIATION...56









000
FXUS64 KLZK 151152 AAB
AFDLZK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR AVIATION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
650 AM CDT MON SEP 15 2014

.AVIATION...

THERE WILL BE AN ABUNDANCE OF MID AND HIGH CLOUDS THROUGH
TONIGHT...WITH MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS ACROSS ARKANSAS.

ANY LOW CLOUDS/MVFR CONDITIONS WILL BE CONFINED TO THE
NORTHERN COUNTIES AS A COLD FRONT SLIDES INTO THE STATE FROM
MISSOURI. SURROUNDING THE FRONT...THERE WILL BE PATCHY LIGHT
RAIN NORTH OF LITTLE ROCK. IF CONDITIONS GO MVFR...THE
MOST LIKELY TIME FRAME WILL BE TOWARD DAWN TUESDAY.

WINDS WILL BE NOT MUCH OF AN ISSUE AS THE FRONT ARRIVES.
IN GENERAL...VARIABLE WINDS ARE EXPECTED AT 5 MPH OR
LESS. (46)
&&

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT

WEAK ASCENT AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING SHORTWAVE DISTURBANCE IS
GENERATING SOME LIGHT RAIN ACROSS PORTIONS OF NORTHWEST ARKANSAS
THIS MORNING. HIGH RESOLUTION GUIDANCE SEEMS TO HAVE A GOOD HANDLE
ON THIS AND SHOWS LIGHT RAIN SPREADING ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF
THE STATE THROUGH THE MORNING. DESPITE RADAR IMAGERY OVERNIGHT
PRECIP HAS BEEN A LITTLE HIT AND MISS IN THE OBSERVATION NETWORK SO
LIMITED RAIN CHANCES TO ABOUT 30 PERCENT ON THE HIGH SIDE TODAY. AS
FAR AS HIGHS GO TODAY...ANOTHER DAY OF WELL BELOW NORMAL TEMPS ARE
FORECAST. CLOUD COVER AND RAINFALL ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE
STATE SHOULD LIMIT HIGHS THERE TO THE UPPER 70S...WHERE AS MID 80S
WILL BE SEEN IN THE SOUTH.

MEANWHILE ANOTHER STRONGER SHORTWAVE IS CURRENTLY DIVING SOUTHEAST
THROUGH THE CENTRAL PLAINS...AND WILL SHIFT EAST TO THE OHIO RIVER
VALLEY BY THIS EVENING. THIS WILL HELP DRIVE A FRONT SOUTH INTO
ARKANSAS BY AROUND MIDNIGHT TONIGHT...AND LIKELY INTO THE SOUTHERN
PART OF THE STATE BY DAYBREAK OR MID MORNING ON TUE. SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY SOME THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE PRESENT IN THE
VICINITY OF THE FRONT AS IT MOVES THROUGH THE STATE...WITH PRECIP
CHANCES FADING THROUGH THE DAY TUESDAY. THE FRONT SHOULD STALL OUT
IN THE SOUTH BEFORE BECOMING MORE NORTHWEST-SOUTHEAST ORIENTED
ACROSS THE STATE BY LATE TUE NIGHT INTO WED MORNING AS THE WANING
INFLUENCE OF SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NE BATTLES INCREASING
SOUTH FLOW OVER THE ARKLATEX REGION IN RESPONSE TO LOW PRESSURE
DEVELOPING IN THE PLAINS. UPPER LEVEL FLOW WILL REMAIN OUT OF THE
NORTHWEST DURING THIS TIME AS AN UPPER RIDGE BUILDS OUT WEST...AND
WILL FEATURE A FEW DISTURBANCES PASSING THROUGH WED AND THU. THIS
WILL RESULT IN MORE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY SOME
THUNDERSTORMS IN THE VICINITY OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY. IT LOOKS LIKE
THE BEST CHANCES WILL BE IN CENTRAL OR NORTHERN ARKANSAS BUT THIS
MAY CHANGE DEPENDING ON WHERE THE FRONT ENDS UP AND WHERE THE
IMPULSES TRACK OVERHEAD.

LASTLY ONE OF THE MORE INTERESTING ASPECTS OF THE SHORT TERM
FORECAST ARE THE TEMP FORECASTS FOR TUE-THU. MODEL OUTPUT IS SHOWING
NEAR 90 DEGREE HIGHS FOR PARTS OF SRN AND SWRN ARKANSAS...AREAS
SOUTH/WEST OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY EACH DAY ESSENTIALLY. UPPER LEVEL
HEIGHTS...NOR H85 TEMPS WOULD SUGGEST HIGHS WILL BE ABOVE SEASONAL
NORMS THESE DAYS...YET MODEL OUTPUT SAYS OTHERWISE. GRANTED MODEL
FORECASTS ARE ONLY GOING 1-2 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL...BUT NEVERTHELESS
ABOVE NORMAL. IT IS HARD TO COMPLETELY TOSS OUT THE NUMERICAL AND
MOS GUIDANCE SO I DID GO AHEAD AND BUMP UP HIGHS TUE-THU...BUT I
ALSO STILL UNDERCUT THEM BY A COUPLE OF DEGREES.

&&

.LONG TERM...FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY

A NORTHWEST WIND FLOW ALOFT WILL BE REPLACED BY SOME RIDGING FROM
THE SOUTHERN PLAINS TOWARD THE END OF THE PERIOD.

AT THE SURFACE...THE PERIOD WILL START WITH CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE
OVER THE OHIO VALLEY AND NEW ENGLAND. THE HIGH WILL BE EXPANSIVE
ENOUGH TO KEEP ARKANSAS MOSTLY DRY...WITH BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES
IN THE FORECAST.

AS RIDGING OCCURS...AND AS THE HIGH MOVES TO THE EAST...A MORE
SOUTHERLY WIND FLOW AT THE SURFACE WILL BRING WARMER TEMPERATURES.
AT THE SAME TIME...A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE NORTH.

GIVEN RIDGING...THERE IS SOME DOUBT THAT THE FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH
THE REGION. THE FRONT WILL PROBABLY HANG UP...WITH AT LEAST ISOLATED
TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SURROUNDING THE FRONT HEADING
INTO NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BATESVILLE AR     78  63  77  60 /  30  20  10  20
CAMDEN AR         86  68  88  66 /  10  20  20  10
HARRISON AR       78  61  73  61 /  40  20  10  30
HOT SPRINGS AR    82  67  85  65 /  20  20  20  10
LITTLE ROCK   AR  83  67  83  64 /  20  20  20  10
MONTICELLO AR     86  67  87  65 /  10  20  20  10
MOUNT IDA AR      81  64  85  64 /  20  20  20  20
MOUNTAIN HOME AR  78  62  74  59 /  30  20  10  30
NEWPORT AR        78  64  76  59 /  20  20  20  20
PINE BLUFF AR     84  66  85  64 /  10  20  20  10
RUSSELLVILLE AR   80  65  82  63 /  30  20  20  20
SEARCY AR         81  65  79  62 /  20  20  20  20
STUTTGART AR      82  65  83  63 /  20  20  20  10
&&

.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...64 / LONG TERM...46







000
FXUS64 KLZK 151152 AAB
AFDLZK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR AVIATION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
650 AM CDT MON SEP 15 2014

.AVIATION...

THERE WILL BE AN ABUNDANCE OF MID AND HIGH CLOUDS THROUGH
TONIGHT...WITH MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS ACROSS ARKANSAS.

ANY LOW CLOUDS/MVFR CONDITIONS WILL BE CONFINED TO THE
NORTHERN COUNTIES AS A COLD FRONT SLIDES INTO THE STATE FROM
MISSOURI. SURROUNDING THE FRONT...THERE WILL BE PATCHY LIGHT
RAIN NORTH OF LITTLE ROCK. IF CONDITIONS GO MVFR...THE
MOST LIKELY TIME FRAME WILL BE TOWARD DAWN TUESDAY.

WINDS WILL BE NOT MUCH OF AN ISSUE AS THE FRONT ARRIVES.
IN GENERAL...VARIABLE WINDS ARE EXPECTED AT 5 MPH OR
LESS. (46)
&&

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT

WEAK ASCENT AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING SHORTWAVE DISTURBANCE IS
GENERATING SOME LIGHT RAIN ACROSS PORTIONS OF NORTHWEST ARKANSAS
THIS MORNING. HIGH RESOLUTION GUIDANCE SEEMS TO HAVE A GOOD HANDLE
ON THIS AND SHOWS LIGHT RAIN SPREADING ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF
THE STATE THROUGH THE MORNING. DESPITE RADAR IMAGERY OVERNIGHT
PRECIP HAS BEEN A LITTLE HIT AND MISS IN THE OBSERVATION NETWORK SO
LIMITED RAIN CHANCES TO ABOUT 30 PERCENT ON THE HIGH SIDE TODAY. AS
FAR AS HIGHS GO TODAY...ANOTHER DAY OF WELL BELOW NORMAL TEMPS ARE
FORECAST. CLOUD COVER AND RAINFALL ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE
STATE SHOULD LIMIT HIGHS THERE TO THE UPPER 70S...WHERE AS MID 80S
WILL BE SEEN IN THE SOUTH.

MEANWHILE ANOTHER STRONGER SHORTWAVE IS CURRENTLY DIVING SOUTHEAST
THROUGH THE CENTRAL PLAINS...AND WILL SHIFT EAST TO THE OHIO RIVER
VALLEY BY THIS EVENING. THIS WILL HELP DRIVE A FRONT SOUTH INTO
ARKANSAS BY AROUND MIDNIGHT TONIGHT...AND LIKELY INTO THE SOUTHERN
PART OF THE STATE BY DAYBREAK OR MID MORNING ON TUE. SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY SOME THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE PRESENT IN THE
VICINITY OF THE FRONT AS IT MOVES THROUGH THE STATE...WITH PRECIP
CHANCES FADING THROUGH THE DAY TUESDAY. THE FRONT SHOULD STALL OUT
IN THE SOUTH BEFORE BECOMING MORE NORTHWEST-SOUTHEAST ORIENTED
ACROSS THE STATE BY LATE TUE NIGHT INTO WED MORNING AS THE WANING
INFLUENCE OF SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NE BATTLES INCREASING
SOUTH FLOW OVER THE ARKLATEX REGION IN RESPONSE TO LOW PRESSURE
DEVELOPING IN THE PLAINS. UPPER LEVEL FLOW WILL REMAIN OUT OF THE
NORTHWEST DURING THIS TIME AS AN UPPER RIDGE BUILDS OUT WEST...AND
WILL FEATURE A FEW DISTURBANCES PASSING THROUGH WED AND THU. THIS
WILL RESULT IN MORE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY SOME
THUNDERSTORMS IN THE VICINITY OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY. IT LOOKS LIKE
THE BEST CHANCES WILL BE IN CENTRAL OR NORTHERN ARKANSAS BUT THIS
MAY CHANGE DEPENDING ON WHERE THE FRONT ENDS UP AND WHERE THE
IMPULSES TRACK OVERHEAD.

LASTLY ONE OF THE MORE INTERESTING ASPECTS OF THE SHORT TERM
FORECAST ARE THE TEMP FORECASTS FOR TUE-THU. MODEL OUTPUT IS SHOWING
NEAR 90 DEGREE HIGHS FOR PARTS OF SRN AND SWRN ARKANSAS...AREAS
SOUTH/WEST OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY EACH DAY ESSENTIALLY. UPPER LEVEL
HEIGHTS...NOR H85 TEMPS WOULD SUGGEST HIGHS WILL BE ABOVE SEASONAL
NORMS THESE DAYS...YET MODEL OUTPUT SAYS OTHERWISE. GRANTED MODEL
FORECASTS ARE ONLY GOING 1-2 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL...BUT NEVERTHELESS
ABOVE NORMAL. IT IS HARD TO COMPLETELY TOSS OUT THE NUMERICAL AND
MOS GUIDANCE SO I DID GO AHEAD AND BUMP UP HIGHS TUE-THU...BUT I
ALSO STILL UNDERCUT THEM BY A COUPLE OF DEGREES.

&&

.LONG TERM...FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY

A NORTHWEST WIND FLOW ALOFT WILL BE REPLACED BY SOME RIDGING FROM
THE SOUTHERN PLAINS TOWARD THE END OF THE PERIOD.

AT THE SURFACE...THE PERIOD WILL START WITH CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE
OVER THE OHIO VALLEY AND NEW ENGLAND. THE HIGH WILL BE EXPANSIVE
ENOUGH TO KEEP ARKANSAS MOSTLY DRY...WITH BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES
IN THE FORECAST.

AS RIDGING OCCURS...AND AS THE HIGH MOVES TO THE EAST...A MORE
SOUTHERLY WIND FLOW AT THE SURFACE WILL BRING WARMER TEMPERATURES.
AT THE SAME TIME...A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE NORTH.

GIVEN RIDGING...THERE IS SOME DOUBT THAT THE FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH
THE REGION. THE FRONT WILL PROBABLY HANG UP...WITH AT LEAST ISOLATED
TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SURROUNDING THE FRONT HEADING
INTO NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BATESVILLE AR     78  63  77  60 /  30  20  10  20
CAMDEN AR         86  68  88  66 /  10  20  20  10
HARRISON AR       78  61  73  61 /  40  20  10  30
HOT SPRINGS AR    82  67  85  65 /  20  20  20  10
LITTLE ROCK   AR  83  67  83  64 /  20  20  20  10
MONTICELLO AR     86  67  87  65 /  10  20  20  10
MOUNT IDA AR      81  64  85  64 /  20  20  20  20
MOUNTAIN HOME AR  78  62  74  59 /  30  20  10  30
NEWPORT AR        78  64  76  59 /  20  20  20  20
PINE BLUFF AR     84  66  85  64 /  10  20  20  10
RUSSELLVILLE AR   80  65  82  63 /  30  20  20  20
SEARCY AR         81  65  79  62 /  20  20  20  20
STUTTGART AR      82  65  83  63 /  20  20  20  10
&&

.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...64 / LONG TERM...46






000
FXUS64 KLZK 150956 AAA
AFDLZK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR AVIATION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
455 AM CDT MON SEP 15 2014

.AVIATION...

THERE WILL BE AN ABUNDANCE OF MID AND HIGH CLOUDS THROUGH
TONIGHT...WITH MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS ACROSS ARKANSAS.

ANY LOW CLOUDS/MVFR CONDITIONS WILL BE CONFINED TO THE
NORTHERN COUNTIES AS A COLD FRONT SLIDES INTO THE STATE FROM
MISSOURI. SURROUNDING THE FRONT...THERE WILL BE PATCHY LIGHT
RAIN NORTH OF LITTLE ROCK. IF CONDITIONS GO MVFR...THE
MOST LIKELY TIME FRAME WILL BE TOWARD DAWN TUESDAY.

WINDS WILL BE NOT MUCH OF AN ISSUE AS THE FRONT ARRIVES.
IN GENERAL...VARIABLE WINDS ARE EXPECTED AT 5 MPH OR
LESS. (46)
&&

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT

WEAK ASCENT AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING SHORTWAVE DISTURBANCE IS
GENERATING SOME LIGHT RAIN ACROSS PORTIONS OF NORTHWEST ARKANSAS
THIS MORNING. HIGH RESOLUTION GUIDANCE SEEMS TO HAVE A GOOD HANDLE
ON THIS AND SHOWS LIGHT RAIN SPREADING ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF
THE STATE THROUGH THE MORNING. DESPITE RADAR IMAGERY OVERNIGHT
PRECIP HAS BEEN A LITTLE HIT AND MISS IN THE OBSERVATION NETWORK SO
LIMITED RAIN CHANCES TO ABOUT 30 PERCENT ON THE HIGH SIDE TODAY. AS
FAR AS HIGHS GO TODAY...ANOTHER DAY OF WELL BELOW NORMAL TEMPS ARE
FORECAST. CLOUD COVER AND RAINFALL ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE
STATE SHOULD LIMIT HIGHS THERE TO THE UPPER 70S...WHERE AS MID 80S
WILL BE SEEN IN THE SOUTH.

MEANWHILE ANOTHER STRONGER SHORTWAVE IS CURRENTLY DIVING SOUTHEAST
THROUGH THE CENTRAL PLAINS...AND WILL SHIFT EAST TO THE OHIO RIVER
VALLEY BY THIS EVENING. THIS WILL HELP DRIVE A FRONT SOUTH INTO
ARKANSAS BY AROUND MIDNIGHT TONIGHT...AND LIKELY INTO THE SOUTHERN
PART OF THE STATE BY DAYBREAK OR MID MORNING ON TUE. SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY SOME THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE PRESENT IN THE
VICINITY OF THE FRONT AS IT MOVES THROUGH THE STATE...WITH PRECIP
CHANCES FADING THROUGH THE DAY TUESDAY. THE FRONT SHOULD STALL OUT
IN THE SOUTH BEFORE BECOMING MORE NORTHWEST-SOUTHEAST ORIENTED
ACROSS THE STATE BY LATE TUE NIGHT INTO WED MORNING AS THE WANING
INFLUENCE OF SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NE BATTLES INCREASING
SOUTH FLOW OVER THE ARKLATEX REGION IN RESPONSE TO LOW PRESSURE
DEVELOPING IN THE PLAINS. UPPER LEVEL FLOW WILL REMAIN OUT OF THE
NORTHWEST DURING THIS TIME AS AN UPPER RIDGE BUILDS OUT WEST...AND
WILL FEATURE A FEW DISTURBANCES PASSING THROUGH WED AND THU. THIS
WILL RESULT IN MORE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY SOME
THUNDERSTORMS IN THE VICINITY OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY. IT LOOKS LIKE
THE BEST CHANCES WILL BE IN CENTRAL OR NORTHERN ARKANSAS BUT THIS
MAY CHANGE DEPENDING ON WHERE THE FRONT ENDS UP AND WHERE THE
IMPULSES TRACK OVERHEAD.

LASTLY ONE OF THE MORE INTERESTING ASPECTS OF THE SHORT TERM
FORECAST ARE THE TEMP FORECASTS FOR TUE-THU. MODEL OUTPUT IS SHOWING
NEAR 90 DEGREE HIGHS FOR PARTS OF SRN AND SWRN ARKANSAS...AREAS
SOUTH/WEST OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY EACH DAY ESSENTIALLY. UPPER LEVEL
HEIGHTS...NOR H85 TEMPS WOULD SUGGEST HIGHS WILL BE ABOVE SEASONAL
NORMS THESE DAYS...YET MODEL OUTPUT SAYS OTHERWISE. GRANTED MODEL
FORECASTS ARE ONLY GOING 1-2 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL...BUT NEVERTHELESS
ABOVE NORMAL. IT IS HARD TO COMPLETELY TOSS OUT THE NUMERICAL AND
MOS GUIDANCE SO I DID GO AHEAD AND BUMP UP HIGHS TUE-THU...BUT I
ALSO STILL UNDERCUT THEM BY A COUPLE OF DEGREES.

&&

.LONG TERM...FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY

A NORTHWEST WIND FLOW ALOFT WILL BE REPLACED BY SOME RIDGING FROM
THE SOUTHERN PLAINS TOWARD THE END OF THE PERIOD.

AT THE SURFACE...THE PERIOD WILL START WITH CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE
OVER THE OHIO VALLEY AND NEW ENGLAND. THE HIGH WILL BE EXPANSIVE
ENOUGH TO KEEP ARKANSAS MOSTLY DRY...WITH BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES
IN THE FORECAST.

AS RIDGING OCCURS...AND AS THE HIGH MOVES TO THE EAST...A MORE
SOUTHERLY WIND FLOW AT THE SURFACE WILL BRING WARMER TEMPERATURES.
AT THE SAME TIME...A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE NORTH.

GIVEN RIDGING...THERE IS SOME DOUBT THAT THE FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH
THE REGION. THE FRONT WILL PROBABLY HANG UP...WITH AT LEAST ISOLATED
TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SURROUNDING THE FRONT HEADING
INTO NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BATESVILLE AR     78  63  77  60 /  30  20  10  20
CAMDEN AR         86  68  88  66 /  10  20  20  10
HARRISON AR       78  61  73  61 /  40  20  10  30
HOT SPRINGS AR    82  67  85  65 /  20  20  20  10
LITTLE ROCK   AR  83  67  83  64 /  20  20  20  10
MONTICELLO AR     86  67  87  65 /  10  20  20  10
MOUNT IDA AR      81  64  85  64 /  20  20  20  20
MOUNTAIN HOME AR  78  62  74  59 /  30  20  10  30
NEWPORT AR        78  64  76  59 /  20  20  20  20
PINE BLUFF AR     84  66  85  64 /  10  20  20  10
RUSSELLVILLE AR   80  65  82  63 /  30  20  20  20
SEARCY AR         81  65  79  62 /  20  20  20  20
STUTTGART AR      82  65  83  63 /  20  20  20  10
&&

.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...64 / LONG TERM...46









000
FXUS64 KLZK 150956 AAA
AFDLZK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR AVIATION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
455 AM CDT MON SEP 15 2014

.AVIATION...

THERE WILL BE AN ABUNDANCE OF MID AND HIGH CLOUDS THROUGH
TONIGHT...WITH MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS ACROSS ARKANSAS.

ANY LOW CLOUDS/MVFR CONDITIONS WILL BE CONFINED TO THE
NORTHERN COUNTIES AS A COLD FRONT SLIDES INTO THE STATE FROM
MISSOURI. SURROUNDING THE FRONT...THERE WILL BE PATCHY LIGHT
RAIN NORTH OF LITTLE ROCK. IF CONDITIONS GO MVFR...THE
MOST LIKELY TIME FRAME WILL BE TOWARD DAWN TUESDAY.

WINDS WILL BE NOT MUCH OF AN ISSUE AS THE FRONT ARRIVES.
IN GENERAL...VARIABLE WINDS ARE EXPECTED AT 5 MPH OR
LESS. (46)
&&

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT

WEAK ASCENT AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING SHORTWAVE DISTURBANCE IS
GENERATING SOME LIGHT RAIN ACROSS PORTIONS OF NORTHWEST ARKANSAS
THIS MORNING. HIGH RESOLUTION GUIDANCE SEEMS TO HAVE A GOOD HANDLE
ON THIS AND SHOWS LIGHT RAIN SPREADING ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF
THE STATE THROUGH THE MORNING. DESPITE RADAR IMAGERY OVERNIGHT
PRECIP HAS BEEN A LITTLE HIT AND MISS IN THE OBSERVATION NETWORK SO
LIMITED RAIN CHANCES TO ABOUT 30 PERCENT ON THE HIGH SIDE TODAY. AS
FAR AS HIGHS GO TODAY...ANOTHER DAY OF WELL BELOW NORMAL TEMPS ARE
FORECAST. CLOUD COVER AND RAINFALL ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE
STATE SHOULD LIMIT HIGHS THERE TO THE UPPER 70S...WHERE AS MID 80S
WILL BE SEEN IN THE SOUTH.

MEANWHILE ANOTHER STRONGER SHORTWAVE IS CURRENTLY DIVING SOUTHEAST
THROUGH THE CENTRAL PLAINS...AND WILL SHIFT EAST TO THE OHIO RIVER
VALLEY BY THIS EVENING. THIS WILL HELP DRIVE A FRONT SOUTH INTO
ARKANSAS BY AROUND MIDNIGHT TONIGHT...AND LIKELY INTO THE SOUTHERN
PART OF THE STATE BY DAYBREAK OR MID MORNING ON TUE. SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY SOME THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE PRESENT IN THE
VICINITY OF THE FRONT AS IT MOVES THROUGH THE STATE...WITH PRECIP
CHANCES FADING THROUGH THE DAY TUESDAY. THE FRONT SHOULD STALL OUT
IN THE SOUTH BEFORE BECOMING MORE NORTHWEST-SOUTHEAST ORIENTED
ACROSS THE STATE BY LATE TUE NIGHT INTO WED MORNING AS THE WANING
INFLUENCE OF SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NE BATTLES INCREASING
SOUTH FLOW OVER THE ARKLATEX REGION IN RESPONSE TO LOW PRESSURE
DEVELOPING IN THE PLAINS. UPPER LEVEL FLOW WILL REMAIN OUT OF THE
NORTHWEST DURING THIS TIME AS AN UPPER RIDGE BUILDS OUT WEST...AND
WILL FEATURE A FEW DISTURBANCES PASSING THROUGH WED AND THU. THIS
WILL RESULT IN MORE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY SOME
THUNDERSTORMS IN THE VICINITY OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY. IT LOOKS LIKE
THE BEST CHANCES WILL BE IN CENTRAL OR NORTHERN ARKANSAS BUT THIS
MAY CHANGE DEPENDING ON WHERE THE FRONT ENDS UP AND WHERE THE
IMPULSES TRACK OVERHEAD.

LASTLY ONE OF THE MORE INTERESTING ASPECTS OF THE SHORT TERM
FORECAST ARE THE TEMP FORECASTS FOR TUE-THU. MODEL OUTPUT IS SHOWING
NEAR 90 DEGREE HIGHS FOR PARTS OF SRN AND SWRN ARKANSAS...AREAS
SOUTH/WEST OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY EACH DAY ESSENTIALLY. UPPER LEVEL
HEIGHTS...NOR H85 TEMPS WOULD SUGGEST HIGHS WILL BE ABOVE SEASONAL
NORMS THESE DAYS...YET MODEL OUTPUT SAYS OTHERWISE. GRANTED MODEL
FORECASTS ARE ONLY GOING 1-2 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL...BUT NEVERTHELESS
ABOVE NORMAL. IT IS HARD TO COMPLETELY TOSS OUT THE NUMERICAL AND
MOS GUIDANCE SO I DID GO AHEAD AND BUMP UP HIGHS TUE-THU...BUT I
ALSO STILL UNDERCUT THEM BY A COUPLE OF DEGREES.

&&

.LONG TERM...FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY

A NORTHWEST WIND FLOW ALOFT WILL BE REPLACED BY SOME RIDGING FROM
THE SOUTHERN PLAINS TOWARD THE END OF THE PERIOD.

AT THE SURFACE...THE PERIOD WILL START WITH CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE
OVER THE OHIO VALLEY AND NEW ENGLAND. THE HIGH WILL BE EXPANSIVE
ENOUGH TO KEEP ARKANSAS MOSTLY DRY...WITH BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES
IN THE FORECAST.

AS RIDGING OCCURS...AND AS THE HIGH MOVES TO THE EAST...A MORE
SOUTHERLY WIND FLOW AT THE SURFACE WILL BRING WARMER TEMPERATURES.
AT THE SAME TIME...A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE NORTH.

GIVEN RIDGING...THERE IS SOME DOUBT THAT THE FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH
THE REGION. THE FRONT WILL PROBABLY HANG UP...WITH AT LEAST ISOLATED
TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SURROUNDING THE FRONT HEADING
INTO NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BATESVILLE AR     78  63  77  60 /  30  20  10  20
CAMDEN AR         86  68  88  66 /  10  20  20  10
HARRISON AR       78  61  73  61 /  40  20  10  30
HOT SPRINGS AR    82  67  85  65 /  20  20  20  10
LITTLE ROCK   AR  83  67  83  64 /  20  20  20  10
MONTICELLO AR     86  67  87  65 /  10  20  20  10
MOUNT IDA AR      81  64  85  64 /  20  20  20  20
MOUNTAIN HOME AR  78  62  74  59 /  30  20  10  30
NEWPORT AR        78  64  76  59 /  20  20  20  20
PINE BLUFF AR     84  66  85  64 /  10  20  20  10
RUSSELLVILLE AR   80  65  82  63 /  30  20  20  20
SEARCY AR         81  65  79  62 /  20  20  20  20
STUTTGART AR      82  65  83  63 /  20  20  20  10
&&

.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...64 / LONG TERM...46









000
FXUS64 KLZK 150956 AAA
AFDLZK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR AVIATION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
455 AM CDT MON SEP 15 2014

.AVIATION...

THERE WILL BE AN ABUNDANCE OF MID AND HIGH CLOUDS THROUGH
TONIGHT...WITH MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS ACROSS ARKANSAS.

ANY LOW CLOUDS/MVFR CONDITIONS WILL BE CONFINED TO THE
NORTHERN COUNTIES AS A COLD FRONT SLIDES INTO THE STATE FROM
MISSOURI. SURROUNDING THE FRONT...THERE WILL BE PATCHY LIGHT
RAIN NORTH OF LITTLE ROCK. IF CONDITIONS GO MVFR...THE
MOST LIKELY TIME FRAME WILL BE TOWARD DAWN TUESDAY.

WINDS WILL BE NOT MUCH OF AN ISSUE AS THE FRONT ARRIVES.
IN GENERAL...VARIABLE WINDS ARE EXPECTED AT 5 MPH OR
LESS. (46)
&&

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT

WEAK ASCENT AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING SHORTWAVE DISTURBANCE IS
GENERATING SOME LIGHT RAIN ACROSS PORTIONS OF NORTHWEST ARKANSAS
THIS MORNING. HIGH RESOLUTION GUIDANCE SEEMS TO HAVE A GOOD HANDLE
ON THIS AND SHOWS LIGHT RAIN SPREADING ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF
THE STATE THROUGH THE MORNING. DESPITE RADAR IMAGERY OVERNIGHT
PRECIP HAS BEEN A LITTLE HIT AND MISS IN THE OBSERVATION NETWORK SO
LIMITED RAIN CHANCES TO ABOUT 30 PERCENT ON THE HIGH SIDE TODAY. AS
FAR AS HIGHS GO TODAY...ANOTHER DAY OF WELL BELOW NORMAL TEMPS ARE
FORECAST. CLOUD COVER AND RAINFALL ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE
STATE SHOULD LIMIT HIGHS THERE TO THE UPPER 70S...WHERE AS MID 80S
WILL BE SEEN IN THE SOUTH.

MEANWHILE ANOTHER STRONGER SHORTWAVE IS CURRENTLY DIVING SOUTHEAST
THROUGH THE CENTRAL PLAINS...AND WILL SHIFT EAST TO THE OHIO RIVER
VALLEY BY THIS EVENING. THIS WILL HELP DRIVE A FRONT SOUTH INTO
ARKANSAS BY AROUND MIDNIGHT TONIGHT...AND LIKELY INTO THE SOUTHERN
PART OF THE STATE BY DAYBREAK OR MID MORNING ON TUE. SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY SOME THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE PRESENT IN THE
VICINITY OF THE FRONT AS IT MOVES THROUGH THE STATE...WITH PRECIP
CHANCES FADING THROUGH THE DAY TUESDAY. THE FRONT SHOULD STALL OUT
IN THE SOUTH BEFORE BECOMING MORE NORTHWEST-SOUTHEAST ORIENTED
ACROSS THE STATE BY LATE TUE NIGHT INTO WED MORNING AS THE WANING
INFLUENCE OF SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NE BATTLES INCREASING
SOUTH FLOW OVER THE ARKLATEX REGION IN RESPONSE TO LOW PRESSURE
DEVELOPING IN THE PLAINS. UPPER LEVEL FLOW WILL REMAIN OUT OF THE
NORTHWEST DURING THIS TIME AS AN UPPER RIDGE BUILDS OUT WEST...AND
WILL FEATURE A FEW DISTURBANCES PASSING THROUGH WED AND THU. THIS
WILL RESULT IN MORE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY SOME
THUNDERSTORMS IN THE VICINITY OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY. IT LOOKS LIKE
THE BEST CHANCES WILL BE IN CENTRAL OR NORTHERN ARKANSAS BUT THIS
MAY CHANGE DEPENDING ON WHERE THE FRONT ENDS UP AND WHERE THE
IMPULSES TRACK OVERHEAD.

LASTLY ONE OF THE MORE INTERESTING ASPECTS OF THE SHORT TERM
FORECAST ARE THE TEMP FORECASTS FOR TUE-THU. MODEL OUTPUT IS SHOWING
NEAR 90 DEGREE HIGHS FOR PARTS OF SRN AND SWRN ARKANSAS...AREAS
SOUTH/WEST OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY EACH DAY ESSENTIALLY. UPPER LEVEL
HEIGHTS...NOR H85 TEMPS WOULD SUGGEST HIGHS WILL BE ABOVE SEASONAL
NORMS THESE DAYS...YET MODEL OUTPUT SAYS OTHERWISE. GRANTED MODEL
FORECASTS ARE ONLY GOING 1-2 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL...BUT NEVERTHELESS
ABOVE NORMAL. IT IS HARD TO COMPLETELY TOSS OUT THE NUMERICAL AND
MOS GUIDANCE SO I DID GO AHEAD AND BUMP UP HIGHS TUE-THU...BUT I
ALSO STILL UNDERCUT THEM BY A COUPLE OF DEGREES.

&&

.LONG TERM...FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY

A NORTHWEST WIND FLOW ALOFT WILL BE REPLACED BY SOME RIDGING FROM
THE SOUTHERN PLAINS TOWARD THE END OF THE PERIOD.

AT THE SURFACE...THE PERIOD WILL START WITH CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE
OVER THE OHIO VALLEY AND NEW ENGLAND. THE HIGH WILL BE EXPANSIVE
ENOUGH TO KEEP ARKANSAS MOSTLY DRY...WITH BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES
IN THE FORECAST.

AS RIDGING OCCURS...AND AS THE HIGH MOVES TO THE EAST...A MORE
SOUTHERLY WIND FLOW AT THE SURFACE WILL BRING WARMER TEMPERATURES.
AT THE SAME TIME...A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE NORTH.

GIVEN RIDGING...THERE IS SOME DOUBT THAT THE FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH
THE REGION. THE FRONT WILL PROBABLY HANG UP...WITH AT LEAST ISOLATED
TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SURROUNDING THE FRONT HEADING
INTO NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BATESVILLE AR     78  63  77  60 /  30  20  10  20
CAMDEN AR         86  68  88  66 /  10  20  20  10
HARRISON AR       78  61  73  61 /  40  20  10  30
HOT SPRINGS AR    82  67  85  65 /  20  20  20  10
LITTLE ROCK   AR  83  67  83  64 /  20  20  20  10
MONTICELLO AR     86  67  87  65 /  10  20  20  10
MOUNT IDA AR      81  64  85  64 /  20  20  20  20
MOUNTAIN HOME AR  78  62  74  59 /  30  20  10  30
NEWPORT AR        78  64  76  59 /  20  20  20  20
PINE BLUFF AR     84  66  85  64 /  10  20  20  10
RUSSELLVILLE AR   80  65  82  63 /  30  20  20  20
SEARCY AR         81  65  79  62 /  20  20  20  20
STUTTGART AR      82  65  83  63 /  20  20  20  10
&&

.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...64 / LONG TERM...46









000
FXUS64 KLZK 150956 AAA
AFDLZK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR AVIATION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
455 AM CDT MON SEP 15 2014

.AVIATION...

THERE WILL BE AN ABUNDANCE OF MID AND HIGH CLOUDS THROUGH
TONIGHT...WITH MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS ACROSS ARKANSAS.

ANY LOW CLOUDS/MVFR CONDITIONS WILL BE CONFINED TO THE
NORTHERN COUNTIES AS A COLD FRONT SLIDES INTO THE STATE FROM
MISSOURI. SURROUNDING THE FRONT...THERE WILL BE PATCHY LIGHT
RAIN NORTH OF LITTLE ROCK. IF CONDITIONS GO MVFR...THE
MOST LIKELY TIME FRAME WILL BE TOWARD DAWN TUESDAY.

WINDS WILL BE NOT MUCH OF AN ISSUE AS THE FRONT ARRIVES.
IN GENERAL...VARIABLE WINDS ARE EXPECTED AT 5 MPH OR
LESS. (46)
&&

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT

WEAK ASCENT AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING SHORTWAVE DISTURBANCE IS
GENERATING SOME LIGHT RAIN ACROSS PORTIONS OF NORTHWEST ARKANSAS
THIS MORNING. HIGH RESOLUTION GUIDANCE SEEMS TO HAVE A GOOD HANDLE
ON THIS AND SHOWS LIGHT RAIN SPREADING ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF
THE STATE THROUGH THE MORNING. DESPITE RADAR IMAGERY OVERNIGHT
PRECIP HAS BEEN A LITTLE HIT AND MISS IN THE OBSERVATION NETWORK SO
LIMITED RAIN CHANCES TO ABOUT 30 PERCENT ON THE HIGH SIDE TODAY. AS
FAR AS HIGHS GO TODAY...ANOTHER DAY OF WELL BELOW NORMAL TEMPS ARE
FORECAST. CLOUD COVER AND RAINFALL ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE
STATE SHOULD LIMIT HIGHS THERE TO THE UPPER 70S...WHERE AS MID 80S
WILL BE SEEN IN THE SOUTH.

MEANWHILE ANOTHER STRONGER SHORTWAVE IS CURRENTLY DIVING SOUTHEAST
THROUGH THE CENTRAL PLAINS...AND WILL SHIFT EAST TO THE OHIO RIVER
VALLEY BY THIS EVENING. THIS WILL HELP DRIVE A FRONT SOUTH INTO
ARKANSAS BY AROUND MIDNIGHT TONIGHT...AND LIKELY INTO THE SOUTHERN
PART OF THE STATE BY DAYBREAK OR MID MORNING ON TUE. SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY SOME THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE PRESENT IN THE
VICINITY OF THE FRONT AS IT MOVES THROUGH THE STATE...WITH PRECIP
CHANCES FADING THROUGH THE DAY TUESDAY. THE FRONT SHOULD STALL OUT
IN THE SOUTH BEFORE BECOMING MORE NORTHWEST-SOUTHEAST ORIENTED
ACROSS THE STATE BY LATE TUE NIGHT INTO WED MORNING AS THE WANING
INFLUENCE OF SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NE BATTLES INCREASING
SOUTH FLOW OVER THE ARKLATEX REGION IN RESPONSE TO LOW PRESSURE
DEVELOPING IN THE PLAINS. UPPER LEVEL FLOW WILL REMAIN OUT OF THE
NORTHWEST DURING THIS TIME AS AN UPPER RIDGE BUILDS OUT WEST...AND
WILL FEATURE A FEW DISTURBANCES PASSING THROUGH WED AND THU. THIS
WILL RESULT IN MORE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY SOME
THUNDERSTORMS IN THE VICINITY OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY. IT LOOKS LIKE
THE BEST CHANCES WILL BE IN CENTRAL OR NORTHERN ARKANSAS BUT THIS
MAY CHANGE DEPENDING ON WHERE THE FRONT ENDS UP AND WHERE THE
IMPULSES TRACK OVERHEAD.

LASTLY ONE OF THE MORE INTERESTING ASPECTS OF THE SHORT TERM
FORECAST ARE THE TEMP FORECASTS FOR TUE-THU. MODEL OUTPUT IS SHOWING
NEAR 90 DEGREE HIGHS FOR PARTS OF SRN AND SWRN ARKANSAS...AREAS
SOUTH/WEST OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY EACH DAY ESSENTIALLY. UPPER LEVEL
HEIGHTS...NOR H85 TEMPS WOULD SUGGEST HIGHS WILL BE ABOVE SEASONAL
NORMS THESE DAYS...YET MODEL OUTPUT SAYS OTHERWISE. GRANTED MODEL
FORECASTS ARE ONLY GOING 1-2 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL...BUT NEVERTHELESS
ABOVE NORMAL. IT IS HARD TO COMPLETELY TOSS OUT THE NUMERICAL AND
MOS GUIDANCE SO I DID GO AHEAD AND BUMP UP HIGHS TUE-THU...BUT I
ALSO STILL UNDERCUT THEM BY A COUPLE OF DEGREES.

&&

.LONG TERM...FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY

A NORTHWEST WIND FLOW ALOFT WILL BE REPLACED BY SOME RIDGING FROM
THE SOUTHERN PLAINS TOWARD THE END OF THE PERIOD.

AT THE SURFACE...THE PERIOD WILL START WITH CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE
OVER THE OHIO VALLEY AND NEW ENGLAND. THE HIGH WILL BE EXPANSIVE
ENOUGH TO KEEP ARKANSAS MOSTLY DRY...WITH BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES
IN THE FORECAST.

AS RIDGING OCCURS...AND AS THE HIGH MOVES TO THE EAST...A MORE
SOUTHERLY WIND FLOW AT THE SURFACE WILL BRING WARMER TEMPERATURES.
AT THE SAME TIME...A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE NORTH.

GIVEN RIDGING...THERE IS SOME DOUBT THAT THE FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH
THE REGION. THE FRONT WILL PROBABLY HANG UP...WITH AT LEAST ISOLATED
TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SURROUNDING THE FRONT HEADING
INTO NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BATESVILLE AR     78  63  77  60 /  30  20  10  20
CAMDEN AR         86  68  88  66 /  10  20  20  10
HARRISON AR       78  61  73  61 /  40  20  10  30
HOT SPRINGS AR    82  67  85  65 /  20  20  20  10
LITTLE ROCK   AR  83  67  83  64 /  20  20  20  10
MONTICELLO AR     86  67  87  65 /  10  20  20  10
MOUNT IDA AR      81  64  85  64 /  20  20  20  20
MOUNTAIN HOME AR  78  62  74  59 /  30  20  10  30
NEWPORT AR        78  64  76  59 /  20  20  20  20
PINE BLUFF AR     84  66  85  64 /  10  20  20  10
RUSSELLVILLE AR   80  65  82  63 /  30  20  20  20
SEARCY AR         81  65  79  62 /  20  20  20  20
STUTTGART AR      82  65  83  63 /  20  20  20  10
&&

.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...64 / LONG TERM...46









000
FXUS64 KLZK 150912
AFDLZK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
412 AM CDT MON SEP 15 2014

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT

WEAK ASCENT AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING SHORTWAVE DISTURBANCE IS
GENERATING SOME LIGHT RAIN ACROSS PORTIONS OF NORTHWEST ARKANSAS
THIS MORNING. HIGH RESOLUTION GUIDANCE SEEMS TO HAVE A GOOD HANDLE
ON THIS AND SHOWS LIGHT RAIN SPREADING ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF
THE STATE THROUGH THE MORNING. DESPITE RADAR IMAGERY OVERNIGHT
PRECIP HAS BEEN A LITTLE HIT AND MISS IN THE OBSERVATION NETWORK SO
LIMITED RAIN CHANCES TO ABOUT 30 PERCENT ON THE HIGH SIDE TODAY. AS
FAR AS HIGHS GO TODAY...ANOTHER DAY OF WELL BELOW NORMAL TEMPS ARE
FORECAST. CLOUD COVER AND RAINFALL ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE
STATE SHOULD LIMIT HIGHS THERE TO THE UPPER 70S...WHERE AS MID 80S
WILL BE SEEN IN THE SOUTH.

MEANWHILE ANOTHER STRONGER SHORTWAVE IS CURRENTLY DIVING SOUTHEAST
THROUGH THE CENTRAL PLAINS...AND WILL SHIFT EAST TO THE OHIO RIVER
VALLEY BY THIS EVENING. THIS WILL HELP DRIVE A FRONT SOUTH INTO
ARKANSAS BY AROUND MIDNIGHT TONIGHT...AND LIKELY INTO THE SOUTHERN
PART OF THE STATE BY DAYBREAK OR MID MORNING ON TUE. SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY SOME THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE PRESENT IN THE
VICINITY OF THE FRONT AS IT MOVES THROUGH THE STATE...WITH PRECIP
CHANCES FADING THROUGH THE DAY TUESDAY. THE FRONT SHOULD STALL OUT
IN THE SOUTH BEFORE BECOMING MORE NORTHWEST-SOUTHEAST ORIENTED
ACROSS THE STATE BY LATE TUE NIGHT INTO WED MORNING AS THE WANING
INFLUENCE OF SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NE BATTLES INCREASING
SOUTH FLOW OVER THE ARKLATEX REGION IN RESPONSE TO LOW PRESSURE
DEVELOPING IN THE PLAINS. UPPER LEVEL FLOW WILL REMAIN OUT OF THE
NORTHWEST DURING THIS TIME AS AN UPPER RIDGE BUILDS OUT WEST...AND
WILL FEATURE A FEW DISTURBANCES PASSING THROUGH WED AND THU. THIS
WILL RESULT IN MORE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY SOME
THUNDERSTORMS IN THE VICINITY OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY. IT LOOKS LIKE
THE BEST CHANCES WILL BE IN CENTRAL OR NORTHERN ARKANSAS BUT THIS
MAY CHANGE DEPENDING ON WHERE THE FRONT ENDS UP AND WHERE THE
IMPULSES TRACK OVERHEAD.

LASTLY ONE OF THE MORE INTERESTING ASPECTS OF THE SHORT TERM
FORECAST ARE THE TEMP FORECASTS FOR TUE-THU. MODEL OUTPUT IS SHOWING
NEAR 90 DEGREE HIGHS FOR PARTS OF SRN AND SWRN ARKANSAS...AREAS
SOUTH/WEST OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY EACH DAY ESSENTIALLY. UPPER LEVEL
HEIGHTS...NOR H85 TEMPS WOULD SUGGEST HIGHS WILL BE ABOVE SEASONAL
NORMS THESE DAYS...YET MODEL OUTPUT SAYS OTHERWISE. GRANTED MODEL
FORECASTS ARE ONLY GOING 1-2 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL...BUT NEVERTHELESS
ABOVE NORMAL. IT IS HARD TO COMPLETELY TOSS OUT THE NUMERICAL AND
MOS GUIDANCE SO I DID GO AHEAD AND BUMP UP HIGHS TUE-THU...BUT I
ALSO STILL UNDERCUT THEM BY A COUPLE OF DEGREES.

&&

.LONG TERM...FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY

A NORTHWEST WIND FLOW ALOFT WILL BE REPLACED BY SOME RIDGING FROM
THE SOUTHERN PLAINS TOWARD THE END OF THE PERIOD.

AT THE SURFACE...THE PERIOD WILL START WITH CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE
OVER THE OHIO VALLEY AND NEW ENGLAND. THE HIGH WILL BE EXPANSIVE
ENOUGH TO KEEP ARKANSAS MOSTLY DRY...WITH BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES
IN THE FORECAST.

AS RIDGING OCCURS...AND AS THE HIGH MOVES TO THE EAST...A MORE
SOUTHERLY WIND FLOW AT THE SURFACE WILL BRING WARMER TEMPERATURES.
AT THE SAME TIME...A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE NORTH.

GIVEN RIDGING...THERE IS SOME DOUBT THAT THE FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH
THE REGION. THE FRONT WILL PROBABLY HANG UP...WITH AT LEAST ISOLATED
TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SURROUNDING THE FRONT HEADING
INTO NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BATESVILLE AR     78  63  77  60 /  30  20  10  20
CAMDEN AR         86  68  88  66 /  10  20  20  10
HARRISON AR       78  61  73  61 /  40  20  10  30
HOT SPRINGS AR    82  67  85  65 /  20  20  20  10
LITTLE ROCK   AR  83  67  83  64 /  20  20  20  10
MONTICELLO AR     86  67  87  65 /  10  20  20  10
MOUNT IDA AR      81  64  85  64 /  20  20  20  20
MOUNTAIN HOME AR  78  62  74  59 /  30  20  10  30
NEWPORT AR        78  64  76  59 /  20  20  20  20
PINE BLUFF AR     84  66  85  64 /  10  20  20  10
RUSSELLVILLE AR   80  65  82  63 /  30  20  20  20
SEARCY AR         81  65  79  62 /  20  20  20  20
STUTTGART AR      82  65  83  63 /  20  20  20  10
&&

.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...64 / LONG TERM...46






000
FXUS64 KLZK 150912
AFDLZK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
412 AM CDT MON SEP 15 2014

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT

WEAK ASCENT AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING SHORTWAVE DISTURBANCE IS
GENERATING SOME LIGHT RAIN ACROSS PORTIONS OF NORTHWEST ARKANSAS
THIS MORNING. HIGH RESOLUTION GUIDANCE SEEMS TO HAVE A GOOD HANDLE
ON THIS AND SHOWS LIGHT RAIN SPREADING ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF
THE STATE THROUGH THE MORNING. DESPITE RADAR IMAGERY OVERNIGHT
PRECIP HAS BEEN A LITTLE HIT AND MISS IN THE OBSERVATION NETWORK SO
LIMITED RAIN CHANCES TO ABOUT 30 PERCENT ON THE HIGH SIDE TODAY. AS
FAR AS HIGHS GO TODAY...ANOTHER DAY OF WELL BELOW NORMAL TEMPS ARE
FORECAST. CLOUD COVER AND RAINFALL ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE
STATE SHOULD LIMIT HIGHS THERE TO THE UPPER 70S...WHERE AS MID 80S
WILL BE SEEN IN THE SOUTH.

MEANWHILE ANOTHER STRONGER SHORTWAVE IS CURRENTLY DIVING SOUTHEAST
THROUGH THE CENTRAL PLAINS...AND WILL SHIFT EAST TO THE OHIO RIVER
VALLEY BY THIS EVENING. THIS WILL HELP DRIVE A FRONT SOUTH INTO
ARKANSAS BY AROUND MIDNIGHT TONIGHT...AND LIKELY INTO THE SOUTHERN
PART OF THE STATE BY DAYBREAK OR MID MORNING ON TUE. SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY SOME THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE PRESENT IN THE
VICINITY OF THE FRONT AS IT MOVES THROUGH THE STATE...WITH PRECIP
CHANCES FADING THROUGH THE DAY TUESDAY. THE FRONT SHOULD STALL OUT
IN THE SOUTH BEFORE BECOMING MORE NORTHWEST-SOUTHEAST ORIENTED
ACROSS THE STATE BY LATE TUE NIGHT INTO WED MORNING AS THE WANING
INFLUENCE OF SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NE BATTLES INCREASING
SOUTH FLOW OVER THE ARKLATEX REGION IN RESPONSE TO LOW PRESSURE
DEVELOPING IN THE PLAINS. UPPER LEVEL FLOW WILL REMAIN OUT OF THE
NORTHWEST DURING THIS TIME AS AN UPPER RIDGE BUILDS OUT WEST...AND
WILL FEATURE A FEW DISTURBANCES PASSING THROUGH WED AND THU. THIS
WILL RESULT IN MORE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY SOME
THUNDERSTORMS IN THE VICINITY OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY. IT LOOKS LIKE
THE BEST CHANCES WILL BE IN CENTRAL OR NORTHERN ARKANSAS BUT THIS
MAY CHANGE DEPENDING ON WHERE THE FRONT ENDS UP AND WHERE THE
IMPULSES TRACK OVERHEAD.

LASTLY ONE OF THE MORE INTERESTING ASPECTS OF THE SHORT TERM
FORECAST ARE THE TEMP FORECASTS FOR TUE-THU. MODEL OUTPUT IS SHOWING
NEAR 90 DEGREE HIGHS FOR PARTS OF SRN AND SWRN ARKANSAS...AREAS
SOUTH/WEST OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY EACH DAY ESSENTIALLY. UPPER LEVEL
HEIGHTS...NOR H85 TEMPS WOULD SUGGEST HIGHS WILL BE ABOVE SEASONAL
NORMS THESE DAYS...YET MODEL OUTPUT SAYS OTHERWISE. GRANTED MODEL
FORECASTS ARE ONLY GOING 1-2 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL...BUT NEVERTHELESS
ABOVE NORMAL. IT IS HARD TO COMPLETELY TOSS OUT THE NUMERICAL AND
MOS GUIDANCE SO I DID GO AHEAD AND BUMP UP HIGHS TUE-THU...BUT I
ALSO STILL UNDERCUT THEM BY A COUPLE OF DEGREES.

&&

.LONG TERM...FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY

A NORTHWEST WIND FLOW ALOFT WILL BE REPLACED BY SOME RIDGING FROM
THE SOUTHERN PLAINS TOWARD THE END OF THE PERIOD.

AT THE SURFACE...THE PERIOD WILL START WITH CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE
OVER THE OHIO VALLEY AND NEW ENGLAND. THE HIGH WILL BE EXPANSIVE
ENOUGH TO KEEP ARKANSAS MOSTLY DRY...WITH BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES
IN THE FORECAST.

AS RIDGING OCCURS...AND AS THE HIGH MOVES TO THE EAST...A MORE
SOUTHERLY WIND FLOW AT THE SURFACE WILL BRING WARMER TEMPERATURES.
AT THE SAME TIME...A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE NORTH.

GIVEN RIDGING...THERE IS SOME DOUBT THAT THE FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH
THE REGION. THE FRONT WILL PROBABLY HANG UP...WITH AT LEAST ISOLATED
TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SURROUNDING THE FRONT HEADING
INTO NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BATESVILLE AR     78  63  77  60 /  30  20  10  20
CAMDEN AR         86  68  88  66 /  10  20  20  10
HARRISON AR       78  61  73  61 /  40  20  10  30
HOT SPRINGS AR    82  67  85  65 /  20  20  20  10
LITTLE ROCK   AR  83  67  83  64 /  20  20  20  10
MONTICELLO AR     86  67  87  65 /  10  20  20  10
MOUNT IDA AR      81  64  85  64 /  20  20  20  20
MOUNTAIN HOME AR  78  62  74  59 /  30  20  10  30
NEWPORT AR        78  64  76  59 /  20  20  20  20
PINE BLUFF AR     84  66  85  64 /  10  20  20  10
RUSSELLVILLE AR   80  65  82  63 /  30  20  20  20
SEARCY AR         81  65  79  62 /  20  20  20  20
STUTTGART AR      82  65  83  63 /  20  20  20  10
&&

.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...64 / LONG TERM...46







000
FXUS64 KLZK 142340 AAA
AFDLZK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
640 PM CDT SUN SEP 14 2014

.AVIATION...
LATEST SHORT TERM GUIDANCE IS SHOWING SHOWERS MOVING INTO THE
STATE OVERNIGHT FROM OKLAHOMA. HAVE ADDED VCSH TO THE WESTERN AND
NORTHERN TAFS...AND WILL AMEND IF THERE IS BETTER CONFIDENCE. COLD
FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE NORTH...BUT WILL REMAIN NORTH OF THE
STATE THROUGH THIS TAF CYCLE. NORTHEAST/EAST WINDS WILL BE LIGHT
OVERNIGHT...AND WILL GRADUALLY BECOME SOUTHERLY AS FRONT
APPROACHES.
&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 232 PM CDT SUN SEP 14 2014/

SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT
ZONAL FLOW WILL TRANSITION TO NORTHWEST FLOW OVER ARKANSAS TONIGHT
AND MONDAY. AN UPPER RIDGE WILL BUILD OVER THE SOUTHERN AND WESTERN
STATES MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. THIS WILL KEEP NORTHWEST FLOW OVER
ARKANSAS.

MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES ARE ACROSS ARKANSAS AT THIS TIME. MOISTURE WILL
BE ON THE INCREASE TONIGHT HOWEVER FROM A SYSTEM IN TEXAS. A
SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE ACROSS NORTH ARKANSAS BY EARLY MONDAY. WILL
BRING A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS INTO THE NORTH
AND WEST LATE TONIGHT. RAIN CHANCES WILL SPREAD SOUTH ON MONDAY. A
COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTH THROUGH THE PLAINS MONDAY AND INTO
NORTHERN ARKANSAS MONDAY NIGHT. THE FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE
STATE TUESDAY. RAIN CHANCES WILL CONTINUE OFF AND ON TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY AS WEAK SHORT WAVES PERIODICALLY MOVE THROUGH THE STATE
ALONG THE NORTHWEST FLOW.

A WARMING TREND WILL BE NOTED THROUGH THE PERIOD. TONIGHTS LOWS WILL
BE IN THE UPPER 50S TO MID 60S. HIGHS MONDAY WILL BE IN THE UPPER
70S TO MID 80S.

LONG TERM...THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY
MODELS IN GENERALLY GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH MOST OF THE PERIOD
BEFORE DIVERGING AT THE END. SINCE WE ARE TALKING LATE SATURDAY AND
INTO SUNDAY...WILL SIMPLY BLEND MODEL SOLUTIONS AT THIS TIME FOR DAY
SEVEN.

PERIOD INITIATES WITH NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT IN PLACE AS UPPER RIDGE
DEVELOPS ACROSS THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST. WEAK DISTURBANCE DROPPING
DOWN IN SAID FLOW WILL REQUIRE AT LEAST SLIGHT CHANCES OF PRECIP
EARLY IN THE PERIOD. AFOREMENTIONED UPPER RIDGE WILL BUILD OVER THE
AREA AND PROVIDE DRY CONDITIONS FOR BOTH FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. COME
SATURDAY NIGHT...A COLD FRONT WILL BE ADVANCING TOWARDS THE STATE
BUT WITH THE MODEL DIFFERENCES BEING WHAT THEY ARE...ONLY SLIGHT
CHANCE POPS ARE WARRANTED.

UNDER THE EXPANDING RIDGE...TEMPERATURES WILL AVERAGE A TOUCH ABOVE
NORMAL WITH WIDESPREAD HIGHS IN THE 89S EXPECTED. OVERALL THE
MAV/MEX NUMBERS LOOK REASONABLE AND ARE GENERALLY ACCEPTED.
&&

.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&

$$

AVIATION...58




000
FXUS64 KLZK 142340 AAA
AFDLZK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
640 PM CDT SUN SEP 14 2014

.AVIATION...
LATEST SHORT TERM GUIDANCE IS SHOWING SHOWERS MOVING INTO THE
STATE OVERNIGHT FROM OKLAHOMA. HAVE ADDED VCSH TO THE WESTERN AND
NORTHERN TAFS...AND WILL AMEND IF THERE IS BETTER CONFIDENCE. COLD
FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE NORTH...BUT WILL REMAIN NORTH OF THE
STATE THROUGH THIS TAF CYCLE. NORTHEAST/EAST WINDS WILL BE LIGHT
OVERNIGHT...AND WILL GRADUALLY BECOME SOUTHERLY AS FRONT
APPROACHES.
&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 232 PM CDT SUN SEP 14 2014/

SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT
ZONAL FLOW WILL TRANSITION TO NORTHWEST FLOW OVER ARKANSAS TONIGHT
AND MONDAY. AN UPPER RIDGE WILL BUILD OVER THE SOUTHERN AND WESTERN
STATES MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. THIS WILL KEEP NORTHWEST FLOW OVER
ARKANSAS.

MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES ARE ACROSS ARKANSAS AT THIS TIME. MOISTURE WILL
BE ON THE INCREASE TONIGHT HOWEVER FROM A SYSTEM IN TEXAS. A
SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE ACROSS NORTH ARKANSAS BY EARLY MONDAY. WILL
BRING A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS INTO THE NORTH
AND WEST LATE TONIGHT. RAIN CHANCES WILL SPREAD SOUTH ON MONDAY. A
COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTH THROUGH THE PLAINS MONDAY AND INTO
NORTHERN ARKANSAS MONDAY NIGHT. THE FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE
STATE TUESDAY. RAIN CHANCES WILL CONTINUE OFF AND ON TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY AS WEAK SHORT WAVES PERIODICALLY MOVE THROUGH THE STATE
ALONG THE NORTHWEST FLOW.

A WARMING TREND WILL BE NOTED THROUGH THE PERIOD. TONIGHTS LOWS WILL
BE IN THE UPPER 50S TO MID 60S. HIGHS MONDAY WILL BE IN THE UPPER
70S TO MID 80S.

LONG TERM...THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY
MODELS IN GENERALLY GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH MOST OF THE PERIOD
BEFORE DIVERGING AT THE END. SINCE WE ARE TALKING LATE SATURDAY AND
INTO SUNDAY...WILL SIMPLY BLEND MODEL SOLUTIONS AT THIS TIME FOR DAY
SEVEN.

PERIOD INITIATES WITH NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT IN PLACE AS UPPER RIDGE
DEVELOPS ACROSS THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST. WEAK DISTURBANCE DROPPING
DOWN IN SAID FLOW WILL REQUIRE AT LEAST SLIGHT CHANCES OF PRECIP
EARLY IN THE PERIOD. AFOREMENTIONED UPPER RIDGE WILL BUILD OVER THE
AREA AND PROVIDE DRY CONDITIONS FOR BOTH FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. COME
SATURDAY NIGHT...A COLD FRONT WILL BE ADVANCING TOWARDS THE STATE
BUT WITH THE MODEL DIFFERENCES BEING WHAT THEY ARE...ONLY SLIGHT
CHANCE POPS ARE WARRANTED.

UNDER THE EXPANDING RIDGE...TEMPERATURES WILL AVERAGE A TOUCH ABOVE
NORMAL WITH WIDESPREAD HIGHS IN THE 89S EXPECTED. OVERALL THE
MAV/MEX NUMBERS LOOK REASONABLE AND ARE GENERALLY ACCEPTED.
&&

.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&

$$

AVIATION...58





000
FXUS64 KLZK 141932
AFDLZK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
232 PM CDT SUN SEP 14 2014

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT
ZONAL FLOW WILL TRANSITION TO NORTHWEST FLOW OVER ARKANSAS TONIGHT
AND MONDAY. AN UPPER RIDGE WILL BUILD OVER THE SOUTHERN AND WESTERN
STATES MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. THIS WILL KEEP NORTHWEST FLOW OVER
ARKANSAS.

MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES ARE ACROSS ARKANSAS AT THIS TIME. MOISTURE WILL
BE ON THE INCREASE TONIGHT HOWEVER FROM A SYSTEM IN TEXAS. A
SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE ACROSS NORTH ARKANSAS BY EARLY MONDAY. WILL
BRING A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS INTO THE NORTH
AND WEST LATE TONIGHT. RAIN CHANCES WILL SPREAD SOUTH ON MONDAY. A
COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTH THROUGH THE PLAINS MONDAY AND INTO
NORTHERN ARKANSAS MONDAY NIGHT. THE FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE
STATE TUESDAY. RAIN CHANCES WILL CONTINUE OFF AND ON TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY AS WEAK SHORT WAVES PERIODICALLY MOVE THROUGH THE STATE
ALONG THE NORTHWEST FLOW.

A WARMING TREND WILL BE NOTED THROUGH THE PERIOD. TONIGHTS LOWS WILL
BE IN THE UPPER 50S TO MID 60S. HIGHS MONDAY WILL BE IN THE UPPER
70S TO MID 80S.

&&

.LONG TERM...THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY
MODELS IN GENERALLY GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH MOST OF THE PERIOD
BEFORE DIVERGING AT THE END. SINCE WE ARE TALKING LATE SATURDAY AND
INTO SUNDAY...WILL SIMPLY BLEND MODEL SOLUTIONS AT THIS TIME FOR DAY
SEVEN.

PERIOD INITIATES WITH NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT IN PLACE AS UPPER RIDGE
DEVELOPS ACROSS THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST. WEAK DISTURBANCE DROPPING
DOWN IN SAID FLOW WILL REQUIRE AT LEAST SLIGHT CHANCES OF PRECIP
EARLY IN THE PERIOD. AFOREMENTIONED UPPER RIDGE WILL BUILD OVER THE
AREA AND PROVIDE DRY CONDITIONS FOR BOTH FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. COME
SATURDAY NIGHT...A COLD FRONT WILL BE ADVANCING TOWARDS THE STATE
BUT WITH THE MODEL DIFFERENCES BEING WHAT THEY ARE...ONLY SLIGHT
CHANCE POPS ARE WARRANTED.

UNDER THE EXPANDING RIDGE...TEMPERATURES WILL AVERAGE A TOUCH ABOVE
NORMAL WITH WIDESPREAD HIGHS IN THE 89S EXPECTED. OVERALL THE
MAV/MEX NUMBERS LOOK REASONABLE AND ARE GENERALLY ACCEPTED.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BATESVILLE AR     58  79  62  77 /  10  20  20  10
CAMDEN AR         63  85  68  85 /  10  20  20  20
HARRISON AR       57  78  59  74 /  20  30  20  10
HOT SPRINGS AR    62  82  66  84 /  10  20  20  20
LITTLE ROCK   AR  61  82  65  83 /  10  20  20  20
MONTICELLO AR     63  86  68  86 /  10  20  20  20
MOUNT IDA AR      61  81  65  83 /  10  20  20  20
MOUNTAIN HOME AR  57  78  60  74 /  20  30  20  10
NEWPORT AR        58  79  63  78 /  10  20  20  20
PINE BLUFF AR     62  84  67  84 /  10  20  20  20
RUSSELLVILLE AR   61  79  64  80 /  10  20  20  10
SEARCY AR         60  80  64  80 /  10  20  20  20
STUTTGART AR      61  82  65  83 /  10  20  20  20
&&

.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...51 / LONG TERM...56






000
FXUS64 KLZK 141932
AFDLZK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
232 PM CDT SUN SEP 14 2014

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT
ZONAL FLOW WILL TRANSITION TO NORTHWEST FLOW OVER ARKANSAS TONIGHT
AND MONDAY. AN UPPER RIDGE WILL BUILD OVER THE SOUTHERN AND WESTERN
STATES MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. THIS WILL KEEP NORTHWEST FLOW OVER
ARKANSAS.

MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES ARE ACROSS ARKANSAS AT THIS TIME. MOISTURE WILL
BE ON THE INCREASE TONIGHT HOWEVER FROM A SYSTEM IN TEXAS. A
SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE ACROSS NORTH ARKANSAS BY EARLY MONDAY. WILL
BRING A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS INTO THE NORTH
AND WEST LATE TONIGHT. RAIN CHANCES WILL SPREAD SOUTH ON MONDAY. A
COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTH THROUGH THE PLAINS MONDAY AND INTO
NORTHERN ARKANSAS MONDAY NIGHT. THE FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE
STATE TUESDAY. RAIN CHANCES WILL CONTINUE OFF AND ON TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY AS WEAK SHORT WAVES PERIODICALLY MOVE THROUGH THE STATE
ALONG THE NORTHWEST FLOW.

A WARMING TREND WILL BE NOTED THROUGH THE PERIOD. TONIGHTS LOWS WILL
BE IN THE UPPER 50S TO MID 60S. HIGHS MONDAY WILL BE IN THE UPPER
70S TO MID 80S.

&&

.LONG TERM...THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY
MODELS IN GENERALLY GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH MOST OF THE PERIOD
BEFORE DIVERGING AT THE END. SINCE WE ARE TALKING LATE SATURDAY AND
INTO SUNDAY...WILL SIMPLY BLEND MODEL SOLUTIONS AT THIS TIME FOR DAY
SEVEN.

PERIOD INITIATES WITH NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT IN PLACE AS UPPER RIDGE
DEVELOPS ACROSS THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST. WEAK DISTURBANCE DROPPING
DOWN IN SAID FLOW WILL REQUIRE AT LEAST SLIGHT CHANCES OF PRECIP
EARLY IN THE PERIOD. AFOREMENTIONED UPPER RIDGE WILL BUILD OVER THE
AREA AND PROVIDE DRY CONDITIONS FOR BOTH FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. COME
SATURDAY NIGHT...A COLD FRONT WILL BE ADVANCING TOWARDS THE STATE
BUT WITH THE MODEL DIFFERENCES BEING WHAT THEY ARE...ONLY SLIGHT
CHANCE POPS ARE WARRANTED.

UNDER THE EXPANDING RIDGE...TEMPERATURES WILL AVERAGE A TOUCH ABOVE
NORMAL WITH WIDESPREAD HIGHS IN THE 89S EXPECTED. OVERALL THE
MAV/MEX NUMBERS LOOK REASONABLE AND ARE GENERALLY ACCEPTED.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BATESVILLE AR     58  79  62  77 /  10  20  20  10
CAMDEN AR         63  85  68  85 /  10  20  20  20
HARRISON AR       57  78  59  74 /  20  30  20  10
HOT SPRINGS AR    62  82  66  84 /  10  20  20  20
LITTLE ROCK   AR  61  82  65  83 /  10  20  20  20
MONTICELLO AR     63  86  68  86 /  10  20  20  20
MOUNT IDA AR      61  81  65  83 /  10  20  20  20
MOUNTAIN HOME AR  57  78  60  74 /  20  30  20  10
NEWPORT AR        58  79  63  78 /  10  20  20  20
PINE BLUFF AR     62  84  67  84 /  10  20  20  20
RUSSELLVILLE AR   61  79  64  80 /  10  20  20  10
SEARCY AR         60  80  64  80 /  10  20  20  20
STUTTGART AR      61  82  65  83 /  10  20  20  20
&&

.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...51 / LONG TERM...56





000
FXUS64 KLZK 141731
AFDLZK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
1231 PM CDT SUN SEP 14 2014

.AVIATION...
WIDESPREAD VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH THE
EXCEPTION OF THE FAR NORTH AROUND SUNRISE. AFTERNOON CUMULUS IS
EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON AND WILL DISSIPATE AFTER SUNSET BEFORE
REDEVELOPING MONDAY MORNING. SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL PREVAIL
THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1108 AM CDT SUN SEP 14 2014/

UPDATE...
ISSUED A MINOR UPDATED TO THE FORECAST TO MAINLY DECREASE CLOUD
COVER. MUCH OF THE STATE IS MOSTLY SUNNY. HOWEVER THERE IS AN AREA
OF OVERCAST CONDITIONS IN THE SOUTHEAST PART OF THE STATE. TWEAKED
TEMPERATURES BASED ON CURRENT OBSERVATIONS AND TRENDS.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 635 AM CDT SUN SEP 14 2014/

AVIATION...

LOW CLOUDS IN PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN AND WESTERN ARKANSAS WILL CREATE
MVFR CONDITIONS THIS MORNING. OTHERWISE...THE CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED TO
BREAK UP AS THE MORNING PROGRESSES...WITH SCATTERED CUMULUS AT 4000
TO 5000 FEET THIS AFTERNOON. THE CUMULUS WILL DISSIPATE TOWARD
EVENING GIVEN THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING...WITH SOME HIGH CLOUDS
LINGERING.

WINDS WILL VARY FROM NORTHEAST TO SOUTHEAST AT 5 TO 10 MPH
TODAY...AND 3 TO 6 MPH TONIGHT. (46)

SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT

DRY AND COOLER THAN NORMAL CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS
ARKANSAS TODAY AS HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE GREAT LAKES
MAINTAINS CONTROL OF THE WEATHER IN THE REGION. EXPECT TO SEE
HIGHS TOP OUT ONLY IN THE 70S TODAY.

ALOFT...A BROAD TROUGH OVER THE NORTHERN TIER OF THE UNITED STATES
WILL GIVE WAY TO A MORE AMPLIFIED PATTERN WITH A TROUGH OVER THE
GREAT LAKES AND A RIDGE BUILDING IN THE WEST. A DISTURBANCE WILL
MOVE OVERHEAD ON MONDAY...YIELDING SOME 20-30 PERCENT RAIN CHANCES
OVER THE NORTH AND NORTHWEST AS A FRONT PUSHES TOWARDS THE STATE
AGAIN. HAVE BROAD-BRUSHED SLIGHT CHANCE POPS IN THE FORECAST FOR
TUE AND WED. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BEHIND THE FRONT ON MONDAY WILL
BE STRONG ENOUGH TO PUSH THE FRONT THROUGH THE STATE. HOWEVER
UPPER LEVEL NORTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL BRING A COUPLE OF MORE
IMPULSES OVERHEAD WHICH SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO SPARK OFF SOME SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS AT TIMES. RAINFALL SHOULD BE ON THE LOW SIDE
THOUGH...BOTH WITH THE INCOMING FRONT ON MONDAY AND WITH
SUBSEQUENT CONVECTION FROM PASSING DISTURBANCES.

FOR TEMPERATURES...THOUGHT IT BEST TO STAY IN THE MIDDLE OF
AVAILABLE GUIDANCE FORECASTS. RAW MODEL OUTPUT FROM THE NAM IS
GIVING UPPER 80S TO AROUND 90 FOR AREAS IN THE SOUTH ON MONDAY AND
TUESDAY. ON THE OPPOSITE END SOME OF THE COOLER GUIDANCE IS GIVING
HIGHS AROUND 80. HAVE HIGHS RANGING FROM THE LOW/MID 70S IN THE
NORTH TO THE LOW/MID 80S IN THE SOUTH BOTH DAYS...WITH THE NOD TO
WED BEING THE WARMER DAY DUE TO LESS CLOUD COVER.

LONG TERM...THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY

MUCH OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD WILL FEATURE A NORTHWEST WIND FLOW
ALOFT. THE PERIOD WILL BEGIN WITH CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE DRIVEN
TOWARD THE OHIO VALLEY AND NEW ENGLAND. THE HIGH WILL BE EXPANSIVE
ENOUGH TO KEEP ARKANSAS MOSTLY DRY...WITH BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES
IN THE FORECAST.

AS THE PERIOD ADVANCES...THE HIGH WILL MOVE FAR ENOUGH TO THE EAST
TO CREATE MORE OF A SOUTHERLY WIND FLOW AT THE SURFACE LOCALLY. THIS
WILL CAUSE TEMPERATURES TO SLOWLY WARM UP BY NEXT WEEKEND. AT THE
SAME TIME...A COLD FRONT WILL RIDE THE UPPER FLOW TOWARD THE REGION
FROM THE PLAINS. THE FRONT WILL BRING SMALL CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS AS THE PERIOD ENDS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BATESVILLE AR     74  57  79  62 /   0   0  20  20
CAMDEN AR         79  63  85  67 /   0   0  10  10
HARRISON AR       74  58  76  59 /   0  20  30  20
HOT SPRINGS AR    78  62  82  66 /   0  10  10  10
LITTLE ROCK   AR  78  62  82  66 /   0   0  10  10
MONTICELLO AR     80  63  86  68 /   0   0  10  10
MOUNT IDA AR      77  59  81  64 /   0  10  20  10
MOUNTAIN HOME AR  74  58  77  60 /   0  10  30  20
NEWPORT AR        75  57  78  63 /   0   0  20  20
PINE BLUFF AR     78  62  84  67 /   0   0  10  10
RUSSELLVILLE AR   77  61  80  64 /   0  10  20  20
SEARCY AR         76  59  80  64 /   0   0  20  20
STUTTGART AR      78  61  82  66 /   0   0  10  10
&&

.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&

$$


AVIATION...56






000
FXUS64 KLZK 141731
AFDLZK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
1231 PM CDT SUN SEP 14 2014

.AVIATION...
WIDESPREAD VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH THE
EXCEPTION OF THE FAR NORTH AROUND SUNRISE. AFTERNOON CUMULUS IS
EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON AND WILL DISSIPATE AFTER SUNSET BEFORE
REDEVELOPING MONDAY MORNING. SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL PREVAIL
THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1108 AM CDT SUN SEP 14 2014/

UPDATE...
ISSUED A MINOR UPDATED TO THE FORECAST TO MAINLY DECREASE CLOUD
COVER. MUCH OF THE STATE IS MOSTLY SUNNY. HOWEVER THERE IS AN AREA
OF OVERCAST CONDITIONS IN THE SOUTHEAST PART OF THE STATE. TWEAKED
TEMPERATURES BASED ON CURRENT OBSERVATIONS AND TRENDS.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 635 AM CDT SUN SEP 14 2014/

AVIATION...

LOW CLOUDS IN PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN AND WESTERN ARKANSAS WILL CREATE
MVFR CONDITIONS THIS MORNING. OTHERWISE...THE CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED TO
BREAK UP AS THE MORNING PROGRESSES...WITH SCATTERED CUMULUS AT 4000
TO 5000 FEET THIS AFTERNOON. THE CUMULUS WILL DISSIPATE TOWARD
EVENING GIVEN THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING...WITH SOME HIGH CLOUDS
LINGERING.

WINDS WILL VARY FROM NORTHEAST TO SOUTHEAST AT 5 TO 10 MPH
TODAY...AND 3 TO 6 MPH TONIGHT. (46)

SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT

DRY AND COOLER THAN NORMAL CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS
ARKANSAS TODAY AS HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE GREAT LAKES
MAINTAINS CONTROL OF THE WEATHER IN THE REGION. EXPECT TO SEE
HIGHS TOP OUT ONLY IN THE 70S TODAY.

ALOFT...A BROAD TROUGH OVER THE NORTHERN TIER OF THE UNITED STATES
WILL GIVE WAY TO A MORE AMPLIFIED PATTERN WITH A TROUGH OVER THE
GREAT LAKES AND A RIDGE BUILDING IN THE WEST. A DISTURBANCE WILL
MOVE OVERHEAD ON MONDAY...YIELDING SOME 20-30 PERCENT RAIN CHANCES
OVER THE NORTH AND NORTHWEST AS A FRONT PUSHES TOWARDS THE STATE
AGAIN. HAVE BROAD-BRUSHED SLIGHT CHANCE POPS IN THE FORECAST FOR
TUE AND WED. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BEHIND THE FRONT ON MONDAY WILL
BE STRONG ENOUGH TO PUSH THE FRONT THROUGH THE STATE. HOWEVER
UPPER LEVEL NORTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL BRING A COUPLE OF MORE
IMPULSES OVERHEAD WHICH SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO SPARK OFF SOME SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS AT TIMES. RAINFALL SHOULD BE ON THE LOW SIDE
THOUGH...BOTH WITH THE INCOMING FRONT ON MONDAY AND WITH
SUBSEQUENT CONVECTION FROM PASSING DISTURBANCES.

FOR TEMPERATURES...THOUGHT IT BEST TO STAY IN THE MIDDLE OF
AVAILABLE GUIDANCE FORECASTS. RAW MODEL OUTPUT FROM THE NAM IS
GIVING UPPER 80S TO AROUND 90 FOR AREAS IN THE SOUTH ON MONDAY AND
TUESDAY. ON THE OPPOSITE END SOME OF THE COOLER GUIDANCE IS GIVING
HIGHS AROUND 80. HAVE HIGHS RANGING FROM THE LOW/MID 70S IN THE
NORTH TO THE LOW/MID 80S IN THE SOUTH BOTH DAYS...WITH THE NOD TO
WED BEING THE WARMER DAY DUE TO LESS CLOUD COVER.

LONG TERM...THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY

MUCH OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD WILL FEATURE A NORTHWEST WIND FLOW
ALOFT. THE PERIOD WILL BEGIN WITH CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE DRIVEN
TOWARD THE OHIO VALLEY AND NEW ENGLAND. THE HIGH WILL BE EXPANSIVE
ENOUGH TO KEEP ARKANSAS MOSTLY DRY...WITH BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES
IN THE FORECAST.

AS THE PERIOD ADVANCES...THE HIGH WILL MOVE FAR ENOUGH TO THE EAST
TO CREATE MORE OF A SOUTHERLY WIND FLOW AT THE SURFACE LOCALLY. THIS
WILL CAUSE TEMPERATURES TO SLOWLY WARM UP BY NEXT WEEKEND. AT THE
SAME TIME...A COLD FRONT WILL RIDE THE UPPER FLOW TOWARD THE REGION
FROM THE PLAINS. THE FRONT WILL BRING SMALL CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS AS THE PERIOD ENDS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BATESVILLE AR     74  57  79  62 /   0   0  20  20
CAMDEN AR         79  63  85  67 /   0   0  10  10
HARRISON AR       74  58  76  59 /   0  20  30  20
HOT SPRINGS AR    78  62  82  66 /   0  10  10  10
LITTLE ROCK   AR  78  62  82  66 /   0   0  10  10
MONTICELLO AR     80  63  86  68 /   0   0  10  10
MOUNT IDA AR      77  59  81  64 /   0  10  20  10
MOUNTAIN HOME AR  74  58  77  60 /   0  10  30  20
NEWPORT AR        75  57  78  63 /   0   0  20  20
PINE BLUFF AR     78  62  84  67 /   0   0  10  10
RUSSELLVILLE AR   77  61  80  64 /   0  10  20  20
SEARCY AR         76  59  80  64 /   0   0  20  20
STUTTGART AR      78  61  82  66 /   0   0  10  10
&&

.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&

$$


AVIATION...56






000
FXUS64 KLZK 141731
AFDLZK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
1231 PM CDT SUN SEP 14 2014

.AVIATION...
WIDESPREAD VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH THE
EXCEPTION OF THE FAR NORTH AROUND SUNRISE. AFTERNOON CUMULUS IS
EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON AND WILL DISSIPATE AFTER SUNSET BEFORE
REDEVELOPING MONDAY MORNING. SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL PREVAIL
THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1108 AM CDT SUN SEP 14 2014/

UPDATE...
ISSUED A MINOR UPDATED TO THE FORECAST TO MAINLY DECREASE CLOUD
COVER. MUCH OF THE STATE IS MOSTLY SUNNY. HOWEVER THERE IS AN AREA
OF OVERCAST CONDITIONS IN THE SOUTHEAST PART OF THE STATE. TWEAKED
TEMPERATURES BASED ON CURRENT OBSERVATIONS AND TRENDS.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 635 AM CDT SUN SEP 14 2014/

AVIATION...

LOW CLOUDS IN PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN AND WESTERN ARKANSAS WILL CREATE
MVFR CONDITIONS THIS MORNING. OTHERWISE...THE CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED TO
BREAK UP AS THE MORNING PROGRESSES...WITH SCATTERED CUMULUS AT 4000
TO 5000 FEET THIS AFTERNOON. THE CUMULUS WILL DISSIPATE TOWARD
EVENING GIVEN THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING...WITH SOME HIGH CLOUDS
LINGERING.

WINDS WILL VARY FROM NORTHEAST TO SOUTHEAST AT 5 TO 10 MPH
TODAY...AND 3 TO 6 MPH TONIGHT. (46)

SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT

DRY AND COOLER THAN NORMAL CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS
ARKANSAS TODAY AS HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE GREAT LAKES
MAINTAINS CONTROL OF THE WEATHER IN THE REGION. EXPECT TO SEE
HIGHS TOP OUT ONLY IN THE 70S TODAY.

ALOFT...A BROAD TROUGH OVER THE NORTHERN TIER OF THE UNITED STATES
WILL GIVE WAY TO A MORE AMPLIFIED PATTERN WITH A TROUGH OVER THE
GREAT LAKES AND A RIDGE BUILDING IN THE WEST. A DISTURBANCE WILL
MOVE OVERHEAD ON MONDAY...YIELDING SOME 20-30 PERCENT RAIN CHANCES
OVER THE NORTH AND NORTHWEST AS A FRONT PUSHES TOWARDS THE STATE
AGAIN. HAVE BROAD-BRUSHED SLIGHT CHANCE POPS IN THE FORECAST FOR
TUE AND WED. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BEHIND THE FRONT ON MONDAY WILL
BE STRONG ENOUGH TO PUSH THE FRONT THROUGH THE STATE. HOWEVER
UPPER LEVEL NORTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL BRING A COUPLE OF MORE
IMPULSES OVERHEAD WHICH SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO SPARK OFF SOME SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS AT TIMES. RAINFALL SHOULD BE ON THE LOW SIDE
THOUGH...BOTH WITH THE INCOMING FRONT ON MONDAY AND WITH
SUBSEQUENT CONVECTION FROM PASSING DISTURBANCES.

FOR TEMPERATURES...THOUGHT IT BEST TO STAY IN THE MIDDLE OF
AVAILABLE GUIDANCE FORECASTS. RAW MODEL OUTPUT FROM THE NAM IS
GIVING UPPER 80S TO AROUND 90 FOR AREAS IN THE SOUTH ON MONDAY AND
TUESDAY. ON THE OPPOSITE END SOME OF THE COOLER GUIDANCE IS GIVING
HIGHS AROUND 80. HAVE HIGHS RANGING FROM THE LOW/MID 70S IN THE
NORTH TO THE LOW/MID 80S IN THE SOUTH BOTH DAYS...WITH THE NOD TO
WED BEING THE WARMER DAY DUE TO LESS CLOUD COVER.

LONG TERM...THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY

MUCH OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD WILL FEATURE A NORTHWEST WIND FLOW
ALOFT. THE PERIOD WILL BEGIN WITH CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE DRIVEN
TOWARD THE OHIO VALLEY AND NEW ENGLAND. THE HIGH WILL BE EXPANSIVE
ENOUGH TO KEEP ARKANSAS MOSTLY DRY...WITH BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES
IN THE FORECAST.

AS THE PERIOD ADVANCES...THE HIGH WILL MOVE FAR ENOUGH TO THE EAST
TO CREATE MORE OF A SOUTHERLY WIND FLOW AT THE SURFACE LOCALLY. THIS
WILL CAUSE TEMPERATURES TO SLOWLY WARM UP BY NEXT WEEKEND. AT THE
SAME TIME...A COLD FRONT WILL RIDE THE UPPER FLOW TOWARD THE REGION
FROM THE PLAINS. THE FRONT WILL BRING SMALL CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS AS THE PERIOD ENDS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BATESVILLE AR     74  57  79  62 /   0   0  20  20
CAMDEN AR         79  63  85  67 /   0   0  10  10
HARRISON AR       74  58  76  59 /   0  20  30  20
HOT SPRINGS AR    78  62  82  66 /   0  10  10  10
LITTLE ROCK   AR  78  62  82  66 /   0   0  10  10
MONTICELLO AR     80  63  86  68 /   0   0  10  10
MOUNT IDA AR      77  59  81  64 /   0  10  20  10
MOUNTAIN HOME AR  74  58  77  60 /   0  10  30  20
NEWPORT AR        75  57  78  63 /   0   0  20  20
PINE BLUFF AR     78  62  84  67 /   0   0  10  10
RUSSELLVILLE AR   77  61  80  64 /   0  10  20  20
SEARCY AR         76  59  80  64 /   0   0  20  20
STUTTGART AR      78  61  82  66 /   0   0  10  10
&&

.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&

$$


AVIATION...56






000
FXUS64 KLZK 141731
AFDLZK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
1231 PM CDT SUN SEP 14 2014

.AVIATION...
WIDESPREAD VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH THE
EXCEPTION OF THE FAR NORTH AROUND SUNRISE. AFTERNOON CUMULUS IS
EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON AND WILL DISSIPATE AFTER SUNSET BEFORE
REDEVELOPING MONDAY MORNING. SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL PREVAIL
THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1108 AM CDT SUN SEP 14 2014/

UPDATE...
ISSUED A MINOR UPDATED TO THE FORECAST TO MAINLY DECREASE CLOUD
COVER. MUCH OF THE STATE IS MOSTLY SUNNY. HOWEVER THERE IS AN AREA
OF OVERCAST CONDITIONS IN THE SOUTHEAST PART OF THE STATE. TWEAKED
TEMPERATURES BASED ON CURRENT OBSERVATIONS AND TRENDS.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 635 AM CDT SUN SEP 14 2014/

AVIATION...

LOW CLOUDS IN PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN AND WESTERN ARKANSAS WILL CREATE
MVFR CONDITIONS THIS MORNING. OTHERWISE...THE CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED TO
BREAK UP AS THE MORNING PROGRESSES...WITH SCATTERED CUMULUS AT 4000
TO 5000 FEET THIS AFTERNOON. THE CUMULUS WILL DISSIPATE TOWARD
EVENING GIVEN THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING...WITH SOME HIGH CLOUDS
LINGERING.

WINDS WILL VARY FROM NORTHEAST TO SOUTHEAST AT 5 TO 10 MPH
TODAY...AND 3 TO 6 MPH TONIGHT. (46)

SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT

DRY AND COOLER THAN NORMAL CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS
ARKANSAS TODAY AS HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE GREAT LAKES
MAINTAINS CONTROL OF THE WEATHER IN THE REGION. EXPECT TO SEE
HIGHS TOP OUT ONLY IN THE 70S TODAY.

ALOFT...A BROAD TROUGH OVER THE NORTHERN TIER OF THE UNITED STATES
WILL GIVE WAY TO A MORE AMPLIFIED PATTERN WITH A TROUGH OVER THE
GREAT LAKES AND A RIDGE BUILDING IN THE WEST. A DISTURBANCE WILL
MOVE OVERHEAD ON MONDAY...YIELDING SOME 20-30 PERCENT RAIN CHANCES
OVER THE NORTH AND NORTHWEST AS A FRONT PUSHES TOWARDS THE STATE
AGAIN. HAVE BROAD-BRUSHED SLIGHT CHANCE POPS IN THE FORECAST FOR
TUE AND WED. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BEHIND THE FRONT ON MONDAY WILL
BE STRONG ENOUGH TO PUSH THE FRONT THROUGH THE STATE. HOWEVER
UPPER LEVEL NORTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL BRING A COUPLE OF MORE
IMPULSES OVERHEAD WHICH SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO SPARK OFF SOME SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS AT TIMES. RAINFALL SHOULD BE ON THE LOW SIDE
THOUGH...BOTH WITH THE INCOMING FRONT ON MONDAY AND WITH
SUBSEQUENT CONVECTION FROM PASSING DISTURBANCES.

FOR TEMPERATURES...THOUGHT IT BEST TO STAY IN THE MIDDLE OF
AVAILABLE GUIDANCE FORECASTS. RAW MODEL OUTPUT FROM THE NAM IS
GIVING UPPER 80S TO AROUND 90 FOR AREAS IN THE SOUTH ON MONDAY AND
TUESDAY. ON THE OPPOSITE END SOME OF THE COOLER GUIDANCE IS GIVING
HIGHS AROUND 80. HAVE HIGHS RANGING FROM THE LOW/MID 70S IN THE
NORTH TO THE LOW/MID 80S IN THE SOUTH BOTH DAYS...WITH THE NOD TO
WED BEING THE WARMER DAY DUE TO LESS CLOUD COVER.

LONG TERM...THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY

MUCH OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD WILL FEATURE A NORTHWEST WIND FLOW
ALOFT. THE PERIOD WILL BEGIN WITH CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE DRIVEN
TOWARD THE OHIO VALLEY AND NEW ENGLAND. THE HIGH WILL BE EXPANSIVE
ENOUGH TO KEEP ARKANSAS MOSTLY DRY...WITH BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES
IN THE FORECAST.

AS THE PERIOD ADVANCES...THE HIGH WILL MOVE FAR ENOUGH TO THE EAST
TO CREATE MORE OF A SOUTHERLY WIND FLOW AT THE SURFACE LOCALLY. THIS
WILL CAUSE TEMPERATURES TO SLOWLY WARM UP BY NEXT WEEKEND. AT THE
SAME TIME...A COLD FRONT WILL RIDE THE UPPER FLOW TOWARD THE REGION
FROM THE PLAINS. THE FRONT WILL BRING SMALL CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS AS THE PERIOD ENDS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BATESVILLE AR     74  57  79  62 /   0   0  20  20
CAMDEN AR         79  63  85  67 /   0   0  10  10
HARRISON AR       74  58  76  59 /   0  20  30  20
HOT SPRINGS AR    78  62  82  66 /   0  10  10  10
LITTLE ROCK   AR  78  62  82  66 /   0   0  10  10
MONTICELLO AR     80  63  86  68 /   0   0  10  10
MOUNT IDA AR      77  59  81  64 /   0  10  20  10
MOUNTAIN HOME AR  74  58  77  60 /   0  10  30  20
NEWPORT AR        75  57  78  63 /   0   0  20  20
PINE BLUFF AR     78  62  84  67 /   0   0  10  10
RUSSELLVILLE AR   77  61  80  64 /   0  10  20  20
SEARCY AR         76  59  80  64 /   0   0  20  20
STUTTGART AR      78  61  82  66 /   0   0  10  10
&&

.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&

$$


AVIATION...56






000
FXUS64 KLZK 141608
AFDLZK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
1108 AM CDT SUN SEP 14 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED A MINOR UPDATED TO THE FORECAST TO MAINLY DECREASE CLOUD
COVER. MUCH OF THE STATE IS MOSTLY SUNNY. HOWEVER THERE IS AN AREA
OF OVERCAST CONDITIONS IN THE SOUTHEAST PART OF THE STATE. TWEAKED
TEMPERATURES BASED ON CURRENT OBSERVATIONS AND TRENDS.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 635 AM CDT SUN SEP 14 2014/

AVIATION...

LOW CLOUDS IN PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN AND WESTERN ARKANSAS WILL CREATE
MVFR CONDITIONS THIS MORNING. OTHERWISE...THE CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED TO
BREAK UP AS THE MORNING PROGRESSES...WITH SCATTERED CUMULUS AT 4000
TO 5000 FEET THIS AFTERNOON. THE CUMULUS WILL DISSIPATE TOWARD
EVENING GIVEN THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING...WITH SOME HIGH CLOUDS
LINGERING.

WINDS WILL VARY FROM NORTHEAST TO SOUTHEAST AT 5 TO 10 MPH
TODAY...AND 3 TO 6 MPH TONIGHT. (46)

SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT

DRY AND COOLER THAN NORMAL CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS
ARKANSAS TODAY AS HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE GREAT LAKES
MAINTAINS CONTROL OF THE WEATHER IN THE REGION. EXPECT TO SEE
HIGHS TOP OUT ONLY IN THE 70S TODAY.

ALOFT...A BROAD TROUGH OVER THE NORTHERN TIER OF THE UNITED STATES
WILL GIVE WAY TO A MORE AMPLIFIED PATTERN WITH A TROUGH OVER THE
GREAT LAKES AND A RIDGE BUILDING IN THE WEST. A DISTURBANCE WILL
MOVE OVERHEAD ON MONDAY...YIELDING SOME 20-30 PERCENT RAIN CHANCES
OVER THE NORTH AND NORTHWEST AS A FRONT PUSHES TOWARDS THE STATE
AGAIN. HAVE BROAD-BRUSHED SLIGHT CHANCE POPS IN THE FORECAST FOR
TUE AND WED. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BEHIND THE FRONT ON MONDAY WILL
BE STRONG ENOUGH TO PUSH THE FRONT THROUGH THE STATE. HOWEVER
UPPER LEVEL NORTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL BRING A COUPLE OF MORE
IMPULSES OVERHEAD WHICH SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO SPARK OFF SOME SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS AT TIMES. RAINFALL SHOULD BE ON THE LOW SIDE
THOUGH...BOTH WITH THE INCOMING FRONT ON MONDAY AND WITH
SUBSEQUENT CONVECTION FROM PASSING DISTURBANCES.

FOR TEMPERATURES...THOUGHT IT BEST TO STAY IN THE MIDDLE OF
AVAILABLE GUIDANCE FORECASTS. RAW MODEL OUTPUT FROM THE NAM IS
GIVING UPPER 80S TO AROUND 90 FOR AREAS IN THE SOUTH ON MONDAY AND
TUESDAY. ON THE OPPOSITE END SOME OF THE COOLER GUIDANCE IS GIVING
HIGHS AROUND 80. HAVE HIGHS RANGING FROM THE LOW/MID 70S IN THE
NORTH TO THE LOW/MID 80S IN THE SOUTH BOTH DAYS...WITH THE NOD TO
WED BEING THE WARMER DAY DUE TO LESS CLOUD COVER.

LONG TERM...THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY

MUCH OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD WILL FEATURE A NORTHWEST WIND FLOW
ALOFT. THE PERIOD WILL BEGIN WITH CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE DRIVEN
TOWARD THE OHIO VALLEY AND NEW ENGLAND. THE HIGH WILL BE EXPANSIVE
ENOUGH TO KEEP ARKANSAS MOSTLY DRY...WITH BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES
IN THE FORECAST.

AS THE PERIOD ADVANCES...THE HIGH WILL MOVE FAR ENOUGH TO THE EAST
TO CREATE MORE OF A SOUTHERLY WIND FLOW AT THE SURFACE LOCALLY. THIS
WILL CAUSE TEMPERATURES TO SLOWLY WARM UP BY NEXT WEEKEND. AT THE
SAME TIME...A COLD FRONT WILL RIDE THE UPPER FLOW TOWARD THE REGION
FROM THE PLAINS. THE FRONT WILL BRING SMALL CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS AS THE PERIOD ENDS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BATESVILLE AR     74  57  79  62 /   0   0  20  20
CAMDEN AR         79  63  85  67 /   0   0  10  10
HARRISON AR       74  58  76  59 /   0  20  30  20
HOT SPRINGS AR    78  62  82  66 /   0  10  10  10
LITTLE ROCK   AR  78  62  82  66 /   0   0  10  10
MONTICELLO AR     80  63  86  68 /   0   0  10  10
MOUNT IDA AR      77  59  81  64 /   0  10  20  10
MOUNTAIN HOME AR  74  58  77  60 /   0  10  30  20
NEWPORT AR        75  57  78  63 /   0   0  20  20
PINE BLUFF AR     78  62  84  67 /   0   0  10  10
RUSSELLVILLE AR   77  61  80  64 /   0  10  20  20
SEARCY AR         76  59  80  64 /   0   0  20  20
STUTTGART AR      78  61  82  66 /   0   0  10  10
&&

.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&

$$

51






000
FXUS64 KLZK 141608
AFDLZK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
1108 AM CDT SUN SEP 14 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED A MINOR UPDATED TO THE FORECAST TO MAINLY DECREASE CLOUD
COVER. MUCH OF THE STATE IS MOSTLY SUNNY. HOWEVER THERE IS AN AREA
OF OVERCAST CONDITIONS IN THE SOUTHEAST PART OF THE STATE. TWEAKED
TEMPERATURES BASED ON CURRENT OBSERVATIONS AND TRENDS.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 635 AM CDT SUN SEP 14 2014/

AVIATION...

LOW CLOUDS IN PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN AND WESTERN ARKANSAS WILL CREATE
MVFR CONDITIONS THIS MORNING. OTHERWISE...THE CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED TO
BREAK UP AS THE MORNING PROGRESSES...WITH SCATTERED CUMULUS AT 4000
TO 5000 FEET THIS AFTERNOON. THE CUMULUS WILL DISSIPATE TOWARD
EVENING GIVEN THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING...WITH SOME HIGH CLOUDS
LINGERING.

WINDS WILL VARY FROM NORTHEAST TO SOUTHEAST AT 5 TO 10 MPH
TODAY...AND 3 TO 6 MPH TONIGHT. (46)

SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT

DRY AND COOLER THAN NORMAL CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS
ARKANSAS TODAY AS HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE GREAT LAKES
MAINTAINS CONTROL OF THE WEATHER IN THE REGION. EXPECT TO SEE
HIGHS TOP OUT ONLY IN THE 70S TODAY.

ALOFT...A BROAD TROUGH OVER THE NORTHERN TIER OF THE UNITED STATES
WILL GIVE WAY TO A MORE AMPLIFIED PATTERN WITH A TROUGH OVER THE
GREAT LAKES AND A RIDGE BUILDING IN THE WEST. A DISTURBANCE WILL
MOVE OVERHEAD ON MONDAY...YIELDING SOME 20-30 PERCENT RAIN CHANCES
OVER THE NORTH AND NORTHWEST AS A FRONT PUSHES TOWARDS THE STATE
AGAIN. HAVE BROAD-BRUSHED SLIGHT CHANCE POPS IN THE FORECAST FOR
TUE AND WED. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BEHIND THE FRONT ON MONDAY WILL
BE STRONG ENOUGH TO PUSH THE FRONT THROUGH THE STATE. HOWEVER
UPPER LEVEL NORTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL BRING A COUPLE OF MORE
IMPULSES OVERHEAD WHICH SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO SPARK OFF SOME SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS AT TIMES. RAINFALL SHOULD BE ON THE LOW SIDE
THOUGH...BOTH WITH THE INCOMING FRONT ON MONDAY AND WITH
SUBSEQUENT CONVECTION FROM PASSING DISTURBANCES.

FOR TEMPERATURES...THOUGHT IT BEST TO STAY IN THE MIDDLE OF
AVAILABLE GUIDANCE FORECASTS. RAW MODEL OUTPUT FROM THE NAM IS
GIVING UPPER 80S TO AROUND 90 FOR AREAS IN THE SOUTH ON MONDAY AND
TUESDAY. ON THE OPPOSITE END SOME OF THE COOLER GUIDANCE IS GIVING
HIGHS AROUND 80. HAVE HIGHS RANGING FROM THE LOW/MID 70S IN THE
NORTH TO THE LOW/MID 80S IN THE SOUTH BOTH DAYS...WITH THE NOD TO
WED BEING THE WARMER DAY DUE TO LESS CLOUD COVER.

LONG TERM...THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY

MUCH OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD WILL FEATURE A NORTHWEST WIND FLOW
ALOFT. THE PERIOD WILL BEGIN WITH CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE DRIVEN
TOWARD THE OHIO VALLEY AND NEW ENGLAND. THE HIGH WILL BE EXPANSIVE
ENOUGH TO KEEP ARKANSAS MOSTLY DRY...WITH BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES
IN THE FORECAST.

AS THE PERIOD ADVANCES...THE HIGH WILL MOVE FAR ENOUGH TO THE EAST
TO CREATE MORE OF A SOUTHERLY WIND FLOW AT THE SURFACE LOCALLY. THIS
WILL CAUSE TEMPERATURES TO SLOWLY WARM UP BY NEXT WEEKEND. AT THE
SAME TIME...A COLD FRONT WILL RIDE THE UPPER FLOW TOWARD THE REGION
FROM THE PLAINS. THE FRONT WILL BRING SMALL CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS AS THE PERIOD ENDS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BATESVILLE AR     74  57  79  62 /   0   0  20  20
CAMDEN AR         79  63  85  67 /   0   0  10  10
HARRISON AR       74  58  76  59 /   0  20  30  20
HOT SPRINGS AR    78  62  82  66 /   0  10  10  10
LITTLE ROCK   AR  78  62  82  66 /   0   0  10  10
MONTICELLO AR     80  63  86  68 /   0   0  10  10
MOUNT IDA AR      77  59  81  64 /   0  10  20  10
MOUNTAIN HOME AR  74  58  77  60 /   0  10  30  20
NEWPORT AR        75  57  78  63 /   0   0  20  20
PINE BLUFF AR     78  62  84  67 /   0   0  10  10
RUSSELLVILLE AR   77  61  80  64 /   0  10  20  20
SEARCY AR         76  59  80  64 /   0   0  20  20
STUTTGART AR      78  61  82  66 /   0   0  10  10
&&

.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&

$$

51






000
FXUS64 KLZK 141608
AFDLZK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
1108 AM CDT SUN SEP 14 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED A MINOR UPDATED TO THE FORECAST TO MAINLY DECREASE CLOUD
COVER. MUCH OF THE STATE IS MOSTLY SUNNY. HOWEVER THERE IS AN AREA
OF OVERCAST CONDITIONS IN THE SOUTHEAST PART OF THE STATE. TWEAKED
TEMPERATURES BASED ON CURRENT OBSERVATIONS AND TRENDS.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 635 AM CDT SUN SEP 14 2014/

AVIATION...

LOW CLOUDS IN PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN AND WESTERN ARKANSAS WILL CREATE
MVFR CONDITIONS THIS MORNING. OTHERWISE...THE CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED TO
BREAK UP AS THE MORNING PROGRESSES...WITH SCATTERED CUMULUS AT 4000
TO 5000 FEET THIS AFTERNOON. THE CUMULUS WILL DISSIPATE TOWARD
EVENING GIVEN THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING...WITH SOME HIGH CLOUDS
LINGERING.

WINDS WILL VARY FROM NORTHEAST TO SOUTHEAST AT 5 TO 10 MPH
TODAY...AND 3 TO 6 MPH TONIGHT. (46)

SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT

DRY AND COOLER THAN NORMAL CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS
ARKANSAS TODAY AS HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE GREAT LAKES
MAINTAINS CONTROL OF THE WEATHER IN THE REGION. EXPECT TO SEE
HIGHS TOP OUT ONLY IN THE 70S TODAY.

ALOFT...A BROAD TROUGH OVER THE NORTHERN TIER OF THE UNITED STATES
WILL GIVE WAY TO A MORE AMPLIFIED PATTERN WITH A TROUGH OVER THE
GREAT LAKES AND A RIDGE BUILDING IN THE WEST. A DISTURBANCE WILL
MOVE OVERHEAD ON MONDAY...YIELDING SOME 20-30 PERCENT RAIN CHANCES
OVER THE NORTH AND NORTHWEST AS A FRONT PUSHES TOWARDS THE STATE
AGAIN. HAVE BROAD-BRUSHED SLIGHT CHANCE POPS IN THE FORECAST FOR
TUE AND WED. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BEHIND THE FRONT ON MONDAY WILL
BE STRONG ENOUGH TO PUSH THE FRONT THROUGH THE STATE. HOWEVER
UPPER LEVEL NORTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL BRING A COUPLE OF MORE
IMPULSES OVERHEAD WHICH SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO SPARK OFF SOME SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS AT TIMES. RAINFALL SHOULD BE ON THE LOW SIDE
THOUGH...BOTH WITH THE INCOMING FRONT ON MONDAY AND WITH
SUBSEQUENT CONVECTION FROM PASSING DISTURBANCES.

FOR TEMPERATURES...THOUGHT IT BEST TO STAY IN THE MIDDLE OF
AVAILABLE GUIDANCE FORECASTS. RAW MODEL OUTPUT FROM THE NAM IS
GIVING UPPER 80S TO AROUND 90 FOR AREAS IN THE SOUTH ON MONDAY AND
TUESDAY. ON THE OPPOSITE END SOME OF THE COOLER GUIDANCE IS GIVING
HIGHS AROUND 80. HAVE HIGHS RANGING FROM THE LOW/MID 70S IN THE
NORTH TO THE LOW/MID 80S IN THE SOUTH BOTH DAYS...WITH THE NOD TO
WED BEING THE WARMER DAY DUE TO LESS CLOUD COVER.

LONG TERM...THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY

MUCH OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD WILL FEATURE A NORTHWEST WIND FLOW
ALOFT. THE PERIOD WILL BEGIN WITH CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE DRIVEN
TOWARD THE OHIO VALLEY AND NEW ENGLAND. THE HIGH WILL BE EXPANSIVE
ENOUGH TO KEEP ARKANSAS MOSTLY DRY...WITH BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES
IN THE FORECAST.

AS THE PERIOD ADVANCES...THE HIGH WILL MOVE FAR ENOUGH TO THE EAST
TO CREATE MORE OF A SOUTHERLY WIND FLOW AT THE SURFACE LOCALLY. THIS
WILL CAUSE TEMPERATURES TO SLOWLY WARM UP BY NEXT WEEKEND. AT THE
SAME TIME...A COLD FRONT WILL RIDE THE UPPER FLOW TOWARD THE REGION
FROM THE PLAINS. THE FRONT WILL BRING SMALL CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS AS THE PERIOD ENDS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BATESVILLE AR     74  57  79  62 /   0   0  20  20
CAMDEN AR         79  63  85  67 /   0   0  10  10
HARRISON AR       74  58  76  59 /   0  20  30  20
HOT SPRINGS AR    78  62  82  66 /   0  10  10  10
LITTLE ROCK   AR  78  62  82  66 /   0   0  10  10
MONTICELLO AR     80  63  86  68 /   0   0  10  10
MOUNT IDA AR      77  59  81  64 /   0  10  20  10
MOUNTAIN HOME AR  74  58  77  60 /   0  10  30  20
NEWPORT AR        75  57  78  63 /   0   0  20  20
PINE BLUFF AR     78  62  84  67 /   0   0  10  10
RUSSELLVILLE AR   77  61  80  64 /   0  10  20  20
SEARCY AR         76  59  80  64 /   0   0  20  20
STUTTGART AR      78  61  82  66 /   0   0  10  10
&&

.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&

$$

51






000
FXUS64 KLZK 141608
AFDLZK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
1108 AM CDT SUN SEP 14 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED A MINOR UPDATED TO THE FORECAST TO MAINLY DECREASE CLOUD
COVER. MUCH OF THE STATE IS MOSTLY SUNNY. HOWEVER THERE IS AN AREA
OF OVERCAST CONDITIONS IN THE SOUTHEAST PART OF THE STATE. TWEAKED
TEMPERATURES BASED ON CURRENT OBSERVATIONS AND TRENDS.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 635 AM CDT SUN SEP 14 2014/

AVIATION...

LOW CLOUDS IN PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN AND WESTERN ARKANSAS WILL CREATE
MVFR CONDITIONS THIS MORNING. OTHERWISE...THE CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED TO
BREAK UP AS THE MORNING PROGRESSES...WITH SCATTERED CUMULUS AT 4000
TO 5000 FEET THIS AFTERNOON. THE CUMULUS WILL DISSIPATE TOWARD
EVENING GIVEN THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING...WITH SOME HIGH CLOUDS
LINGERING.

WINDS WILL VARY FROM NORTHEAST TO SOUTHEAST AT 5 TO 10 MPH
TODAY...AND 3 TO 6 MPH TONIGHT. (46)

SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT

DRY AND COOLER THAN NORMAL CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS
ARKANSAS TODAY AS HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE GREAT LAKES
MAINTAINS CONTROL OF THE WEATHER IN THE REGION. EXPECT TO SEE
HIGHS TOP OUT ONLY IN THE 70S TODAY.

ALOFT...A BROAD TROUGH OVER THE NORTHERN TIER OF THE UNITED STATES
WILL GIVE WAY TO A MORE AMPLIFIED PATTERN WITH A TROUGH OVER THE
GREAT LAKES AND A RIDGE BUILDING IN THE WEST. A DISTURBANCE WILL
MOVE OVERHEAD ON MONDAY...YIELDING SOME 20-30 PERCENT RAIN CHANCES
OVER THE NORTH AND NORTHWEST AS A FRONT PUSHES TOWARDS THE STATE
AGAIN. HAVE BROAD-BRUSHED SLIGHT CHANCE POPS IN THE FORECAST FOR
TUE AND WED. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BEHIND THE FRONT ON MONDAY WILL
BE STRONG ENOUGH TO PUSH THE FRONT THROUGH THE STATE. HOWEVER
UPPER LEVEL NORTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL BRING A COUPLE OF MORE
IMPULSES OVERHEAD WHICH SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO SPARK OFF SOME SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS AT TIMES. RAINFALL SHOULD BE ON THE LOW SIDE
THOUGH...BOTH WITH THE INCOMING FRONT ON MONDAY AND WITH
SUBSEQUENT CONVECTION FROM PASSING DISTURBANCES.

FOR TEMPERATURES...THOUGHT IT BEST TO STAY IN THE MIDDLE OF
AVAILABLE GUIDANCE FORECASTS. RAW MODEL OUTPUT FROM THE NAM IS
GIVING UPPER 80S TO AROUND 90 FOR AREAS IN THE SOUTH ON MONDAY AND
TUESDAY. ON THE OPPOSITE END SOME OF THE COOLER GUIDANCE IS GIVING
HIGHS AROUND 80. HAVE HIGHS RANGING FROM THE LOW/MID 70S IN THE
NORTH TO THE LOW/MID 80S IN THE SOUTH BOTH DAYS...WITH THE NOD TO
WED BEING THE WARMER DAY DUE TO LESS CLOUD COVER.

LONG TERM...THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY

MUCH OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD WILL FEATURE A NORTHWEST WIND FLOW
ALOFT. THE PERIOD WILL BEGIN WITH CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE DRIVEN
TOWARD THE OHIO VALLEY AND NEW ENGLAND. THE HIGH WILL BE EXPANSIVE
ENOUGH TO KEEP ARKANSAS MOSTLY DRY...WITH BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES
IN THE FORECAST.

AS THE PERIOD ADVANCES...THE HIGH WILL MOVE FAR ENOUGH TO THE EAST
TO CREATE MORE OF A SOUTHERLY WIND FLOW AT THE SURFACE LOCALLY. THIS
WILL CAUSE TEMPERATURES TO SLOWLY WARM UP BY NEXT WEEKEND. AT THE
SAME TIME...A COLD FRONT WILL RIDE THE UPPER FLOW TOWARD THE REGION
FROM THE PLAINS. THE FRONT WILL BRING SMALL CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS AS THE PERIOD ENDS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BATESVILLE AR     74  57  79  62 /   0   0  20  20
CAMDEN AR         79  63  85  67 /   0   0  10  10
HARRISON AR       74  58  76  59 /   0  20  30  20
HOT SPRINGS AR    78  62  82  66 /   0  10  10  10
LITTLE ROCK   AR  78  62  82  66 /   0   0  10  10
MONTICELLO AR     80  63  86  68 /   0   0  10  10
MOUNT IDA AR      77  59  81  64 /   0  10  20  10
MOUNTAIN HOME AR  74  58  77  60 /   0  10  30  20
NEWPORT AR        75  57  78  63 /   0   0  20  20
PINE BLUFF AR     78  62  84  67 /   0   0  10  10
RUSSELLVILLE AR   77  61  80  64 /   0  10  20  20
SEARCY AR         76  59  80  64 /   0   0  20  20
STUTTGART AR      78  61  82  66 /   0   0  10  10
&&

.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&

$$

51






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