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000
FXUS64 KLZK 272000
AFDLZK

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Little Rock AR
300 PM CDT MON JUN 27 2016

.SHORT TERM...Today Through Wednesday Night

Early afternoon water vapor satellite imagery showed an elongated
zone of cyclonic shear over south central Missouri moving
southeast towards Arkansas. While this zone of cyclonic vorticity
aloft does not represent strong forcing for ascent...it should be
sufficient to support scattered showers and thunderstorms across
the state this afternoon through early this evening. Arkansas has
been under the influence of upper ridging and its associated
subsidence/sinking for several days now...so a simple transition
to a lack of subsidence should help rain chances through sunset.
At the time of this discussion...clusters of thunderstorms were
ongoing across far northeastern Arkansas and far southwestern
Arkansas with some isolated activity in between. The upper shear
axis will help drive a cold front south across Arkansas this
evening...this boundary was currently in place over the northern
portion of the state with its leading edge pushing south towards
the Interstate 40 corridor. The cooler and slightly drier air
behind the front was still located north close to the Missouri
border as of 230 pm CDT. The leading edge of the boundary was
responsible for the isolated to scattered shower and thunderstorm
activity across the central portion of the state.

The morning weather balloon showed a nearly saturated atmosphere
in the middle to upper troposphere with signs of subsidence and
drying in the lower part of the atmosphere. This is likely due to
early morning convection that spread quite a bit of cool air and
rainfall around Hot Springs before moving east and dissipating
before sunrise. Heating and weak lift ahead of the front will help
to deepen the moist layer and increase instability through late
this afternoon. Short range model guidance indicates that
precipitable water values will increase above 2 inches out ahead
of the front this afternoon. Assuming this occurs...expect that
shower and thunderstorm activity will increase along the front as
it sinks south.

The primary hazards associated with storms this afternoon should
be from locally heavy rainfall/flooding and microburst winds from
collapsing storms. Did not go with a flash flood watch for today
as the threat of flooding is expected to remain localized in
nature due to a lack of stronger upper level forcing for ascent.
With a scattered coverage expected for storms...but an incredible
amount of moisture available for storms to develop...locations
that see storms may pick up a quick 2 to 3 inches of rain while
others see little if any rainfall at all. Spread out this will
equate to around one half inch of rainfall across the state but
this is very misleading as almost no one will receive one half
inch of rain...folks under a storm will see heavy rain while those
not under a storm will remain mostly dry through tonight.

The front is expected to sink south towards the Louisiana border
overnight...and its final resting position will largely determine
the area of best rain chances for Tuesday. Kept some low rain
chances in across the southern third of the state on Tuesday with
some uncertainty as to how far south the front will make it. If
the front pushes farther south into Louisiana then rain chances
could be dropped from the front Tuesday. Temperatures should be
slightly cooler behind the front Tuesday...but it`s late June and
skies will be mostly clear...so highs are still expected to climb
into the low 90s.

On Wednesday a weak upper level shortwave trough is expected to
move southeast towards Arkansas as upper level ridging starts to
nudge west of the plains. This should result in an increase in
cloud cover from northwest to southeast as weak lift spreads over
the region. Rain chances will also increase over the northwestern
portion of the state Wednesday afternoon as this trough
approaches. Rain chances remain fairly low at this time... only 20
to 30 percent...but the additional cloud cover should help shave
another few degrees off of forecast highs with many locations
topping out in the upper 80s.

Cavanaugh

&&

.LONG TERM...Thursday Through Saturday Night

By Wednesday night the ridge will have moved west allowing for
northwest flow aloft through Friday. By Saturday, the ridge flattens
and remains elongated across the southern gulf states resulting in a
more zonal flow aloft. However, this change in upper flow will have
mininal impact on the overall weather pattern across the area. The
northwest flow pattern will allow a front to move into the state and
become stationary through much of the extended.  Models seem to
indicate that the stationary boundary will reside across central
Arkansas. While scattered thunderstorms will be possible across the
entire state, the better chances for thunderstorms will occur along
and north of the boundary favoring the northern half of Arkansas. In
addition to the frontal boundary acting as a focus for storms, weak
disturbances in the upper flow will periodically move across the
area and each time will enhance the rain potential a bit.
Regardless, widespread thunderstorm activity is not expected but
there will be several opportunities for rainfall during the extended.

With the frontal boundary in the area and lower 5H heights,
temperatures will be "less hot" through the extended with temps at
or slightly below seasonal normals.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Batesville AR     69  90  67  85 /  30  10  10  10
Camden AR         73  92  71  92 /  40  40  10   0
Harrison AR       66  88  65  84 /  20  10  10  10
Hot Springs AR    73  91  71  89 /  50  20  10  10
Little Rock   AR  73  92  72  89 /  50  20  10  10
Monticello AR     74  90  72  91 /  50  40  10   0
Mount Ida AR      71  90  68  89 /  40  20  10  10
Mountain Home AR  67  89  65  85 /  20  10  10  10
Newport AR        71  91  69  85 /  30  10  10  10
Pine Bluff AR     73  90  71  89 /  50  30  10   0
Russellville AR   71  92  70  88 /  40  10  10  10
Searcy AR         71  91  69  87 /  40  20  10  10
Stuttgart AR      73  91  71  88 /  50  20  10  10
&&

.LZK Watches/Warnings/Advisories...NONE.
&&

$$

Short Term...66 / Long Term...32




000
FXUS64 KLZK 271810
AFDLZK

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Little Rock AR
110 PM CDT MON JUN 27 2016

.AVIATION...

For the 18z TAFs...
The primary forecast concern today is the timing and coverage of
showers and thunderstorms across Arkansas near area TAF sites.

An upper level trough will provide lift over the state of Arkansas
this afternoon. Deep moisture in the atmosphere combined with
heating throughout the day will allow for a thermodynamic profile
characterized by tall and skinny CAPE with little convective
inhibition (CIN). This type of environment does not typically
support overly strong or severe storms...but it does support
scattered to numerous storms capable of producing very heavy
rainfall.

For area TAF sites all this means is that if a thunderstorm moves
over the airport directly... visibility will likely fall to 3
miles or lower while it is raining. Kept the mention of
thunderstorms in a tempo group for now with low MVFR visibilities
mentioned... but storms directly over an airport will very likely
result in IFR conditions. Will amend TAFs as storms approach
airports to reflect this if it looks like storm will be over the
airport for a half hour or so.

By this evening...a push of cooler and slightly drier air will
result in showers and thunderstorms moving south of Arkansas. Kept
a mention of VCSH in at most area TAF sites through 01z for
now...but will adjust this as the cooler and drier air should be
easy to track this afternoon moving south. Light east-
northeasterly winds and VFR conditions are expected tomorrow
across Arkansas.

Cavanaugh

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...(ISSUED 643 AM CDT MON JUN 27 2016
)

AVIATION...

Widespread convection has ended at the moment but is expected to
redevelop as the day progresses with no time restraints. Have
included VCSH and TSRA at all sites through sunset when the air
mass should destabilize somewhat. Otherwise VFR conditions are
expected outside of the thunderstorm withs MVFR to occasional IFR
conditions expected when the occur.

PREV DISCUSSION...(ISSUED 408 AM CDT MON JUN 27 2016
)

SHORT TERM ...Today through Tuesday night

Intensity of the slow moving convection continues to wane at this
time as the low levels continue to destabilize. High PWAT air mass
combined with the almost non existent steering currents resulted in
some locally heavy rain over the SW part of the CWA.

Coverage of the the of SHRA/TSRA should continue to decrease this
morning. However, an upper level shortwave, located over southwest
Missouri at this time, will be dropping SE over the county warning
forecast area today.

Scattered SHRA/TSRA are expected once again to develop as this wave
moves through with high end chance to low end likely pops justified.
The short term, high resolution models did a good job overnight with
the precipitation and will follow their lead. Not everyone will see
precipitation through out the day. As a result of these increased
rain chances and cloud cover, temperatures will actually be cooler
than what has been seen of late, especially across the north.

Higher precipitation chances will drop to the south tonight and
Tuesday as this upper wave drops south of the state. The well
advertised cold front will be located along the Missouri border by
Tuesday morning and forecast to move through the state during the
day with a secondary boundary on its heels. Temperatures should
continue in the mid 80s to mid 90s on Tuesday with cooler and drier
conditions on their way in the wake of the second boundary.

LONG TERM...Wednesday Through Sunday

The upper ridge will be over the western U.S. to begin the
period, and an upper trough will be over the east coast. This will
provide a northwest flow over Arkansas. This pattern will continue
through the long term period.

Several short waves will move through the northwest flow Wednesday
night and through the weekend. This, along with a front meandering
around northern Louisiana and southern Arkansas, will bring increased
rain chances for the latter half of the week. Also, cooler
temperatures are anticipated through Friday, then a warming trend
begins on Saturday.

&&

.LZK Watches/Warnings/Advisories...NONE.
&&

$$


Aviation...66




000
FXUS64 KLZK 271810
AFDLZK

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Little Rock AR
110 PM CDT MON JUN 27 2016

.AVIATION...

For the 18z TAFs...
The primary forecast concern today is the timing and coverage of
showers and thunderstorms across Arkansas near area TAF sites.

An upper level trough will provide lift over the state of Arkansas
this afternoon. Deep moisture in the atmosphere combined with
heating throughout the day will allow for a thermodynamic profile
characterized by tall and skinny CAPE with little convective
inhibition (CIN). This type of environment does not typically
support overly strong or severe storms...but it does support
scattered to numerous storms capable of producing very heavy
rainfall.

For area TAF sites all this means is that if a thunderstorm moves
over the airport directly... visibility will likely fall to 3
miles or lower while it is raining. Kept the mention of
thunderstorms in a tempo group for now with low MVFR visibilities
mentioned... but storms directly over an airport will very likely
result in IFR conditions. Will amend TAFs as storms approach
airports to reflect this if it looks like storm will be over the
airport for a half hour or so.

By this evening...a push of cooler and slightly drier air will
result in showers and thunderstorms moving south of Arkansas. Kept
a mention of VCSH in at most area TAF sites through 01z for
now...but will adjust this as the cooler and drier air should be
easy to track this afternoon moving south. Light east-
northeasterly winds and VFR conditions are expected tomorrow
across Arkansas.

Cavanaugh

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...(ISSUED 643 AM CDT MON JUN 27 2016
)

AVIATION...

Widespread convection has ended at the moment but is expected to
redevelop as the day progresses with no time restraints. Have
included VCSH and TSRA at all sites through sunset when the air
mass should destabilize somewhat. Otherwise VFR conditions are
expected outside of the thunderstorm withs MVFR to occasional IFR
conditions expected when the occur.

PREV DISCUSSION...(ISSUED 408 AM CDT MON JUN 27 2016
)

SHORT TERM ...Today through Tuesday night

Intensity of the slow moving convection continues to wane at this
time as the low levels continue to destabilize. High PWAT air mass
combined with the almost non existent steering currents resulted in
some locally heavy rain over the SW part of the CWA.

Coverage of the the of SHRA/TSRA should continue to decrease this
morning. However, an upper level shortwave, located over southwest
Missouri at this time, will be dropping SE over the county warning
forecast area today.

Scattered SHRA/TSRA are expected once again to develop as this wave
moves through with high end chance to low end likely pops justified.
The short term, high resolution models did a good job overnight with
the precipitation and will follow their lead. Not everyone will see
precipitation through out the day. As a result of these increased
rain chances and cloud cover, temperatures will actually be cooler
than what has been seen of late, especially across the north.

Higher precipitation chances will drop to the south tonight and
Tuesday as this upper wave drops south of the state. The well
advertised cold front will be located along the Missouri border by
Tuesday morning and forecast to move through the state during the
day with a secondary boundary on its heels. Temperatures should
continue in the mid 80s to mid 90s on Tuesday with cooler and drier
conditions on their way in the wake of the second boundary.

LONG TERM...Wednesday Through Sunday

The upper ridge will be over the western U.S. to begin the
period, and an upper trough will be over the east coast. This will
provide a northwest flow over Arkansas. This pattern will continue
through the long term period.

Several short waves will move through the northwest flow Wednesday
night and through the weekend. This, along with a front meandering
around northern Louisiana and southern Arkansas, will bring increased
rain chances for the latter half of the week. Also, cooler
temperatures are anticipated through Friday, then a warming trend
begins on Saturday.

&&

.LZK Watches/Warnings/Advisories...NONE.
&&

$$


Aviation...66




000
FXUS64 KLZK 271143
AFDLZK

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Little Rock AR
643 AM CDT MON JUN 27 2016

.AVIATION...

Widespread convection has ended at the moment but is expected to
redevelop as the day progresses with no time restraints. Have
included VCSH and TSRA at all sites through sunset when the air
mass should destabilize somewhat. Otherwise VFR conditions are
expected outside of the thunderstorm withs MVFR to occasional IFR
conditions expected when the occur.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...(ISSUED 408 AM CDT MON JUN 27 2016
)

SHORT TERM ...Today through Tuesday night

Intensity of the slow moving convection continues to wane at this
time as the low levels continue to destabilize. High PWAT air mass
combined with the almost non existent steering currents resulted in
some locally heavy rain over the SW part of the CWA.

Coverage of the the of SHRA/TSRA should continue to decrease this
morning. However, an upper level shortwave, located over southwest
Missouri at this time, will be dropping SE over the county warning
forecast area today.

Scattered SHRA/TSRA are expected once again to develop as this wave
moves through with high end chance to low end likely pops justified.
The short term, high resolution models did a good job overnight with
the precipitation and will follow their lead. Not everyone will see
precipitation through out the day. As a result of these increased
rain chances and cloud cover, temperatures will actually be cooler
than what has been seen of late, especially across the north.

Higher precipitation chances will drop to the south tonight and
Tuesday as this upper wave drops south of the state. The well
advertised cold front will be located along the Missouri border by
Tuesday morning and forecast to move through the state during the
day with a secondary boundary on its heels. Temperatures should
continue in the mid 80s to mid 90s on Tuesday with cooler and drier
conditions on their way in the wake of the second boundary.

LONG TERM...Wednesday Through Sunday

The upper ridge will be over the western U.S. to begin the
period, and an upper trough will be over the east coast. This will
provide a northwest flow over Arkansas. This pattern will continue
through the long term period.

Several short waves will move through the northwest flow Wednesday
night and through the weekend. This, along with a front meandering
around northern Louisiana and southern Arkansas, will bring increased
rain chances for the latter half of the week. Also, cooler
temperatures are anticipated through Friday, then a warming trend
begins on Saturday.

&&

.LZK Watches/Warnings/Advisories...NONE.
&&

$$


Aviation...56




000
FXUS64 KLZK 270908
AFDLZK

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Little Rock AR
408 AM CDT MON JUN 27 2016

.SHORT TERM ...Today through Tuesday night

Intensity of the slow moving convection continues to wane at this
time as the low levels continue to destabilize. High PWAT air mass
combined with the almost non existent steering currents resulted in
some locally heavy rain over the SW part of the CWA.

Coverage of the the of SHRA/TSRA should continue to decrease this
morning. However, an upper level shortwave, located over southwest
Missouri at this time, will be dropping SE over the county warning
forecast area today.

Scattered SHRA/TSRA are expected once again to develop as this wave
moves through with high end chance to low end likely pops justified.
The short term, high resolution models did a good job overnight with
the precipitation and will follow their lead. Not everyone will see
precipitation through out the day. As a result of these increased
rain chances and cloud cover, temperatures will actually be cooler
than what has been seen of late, especially across the north.

Higher precipitation chances will drop to the south tonight and
Tuesday as this upper wave drops south of the state. The well
advertised cold front will be located along the Missouri border by
Tuesday morning and forecast to move through the state during the
day with a secondary boundary on its heels. Temperatures should
continue in the mid 80s to mid 90s on Tuesday with cooler and drier
conditions on their way in the wake of the second boundary.
&&

.LONG TERM...Wednesday Through Sunday

The upper ridge will be over the western U.S. to begin the
period, and an upper trough will be over the east coast. This will
provide a northwest flow over Arkansas. This pattern will continue
through the long term period.

Several short waves will move through the northwest flow Wednesday
night and through the weekend. This, along with a front meandering
around northern Louisiana and southern Arkansas, will bring increased
rain chances for the latter half of the week. Also, cooler
temperatures are anticipated through Friday, then a warming trend
begins on Saturday.
&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Batesville AR     88  69  90  67 /  60  20  10  10
Camden AR         93  73  92  71 /  50  40  40  10
Harrison AR       84  66  88  65 /  50  20  10  10
Hot Springs AR    91  73  91  71 /  50  30  20  10
Little Rock   AR  91  73  92  72 /  60  30  20  10
Monticello AR     93  74  90  72 /  50  40  40  10
Mount Ida AR      90  71  90  68 /  50  30  20  10
Mountain Home AR  85  67  89  65 /  50  10  10  10
Newport AR        89  71  91  69 /  60  20  10  10
Pine Bluff AR     91  73  90  71 /  60  30  30  10
Russellville AR   89  71  92  70 /  50  30  10  10
Searcy AR         90  71  91  69 /  60  20  20  10
Stuttgart AR      90  73  91  71 /  60  30  20  10
&&

.LZK Watches/Warnings/Advisories...NONE.
&&

$$

Short Term...56 / Long Term...51




000
FXUS64 KLZK 270531
AFDLZK

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Little Rock AR
1231 AM CDT MON JUN 27 2016

.AVIATION...
Convection continues over west central and parts of southern
Arkansas with a slow weakening trend over the past hour or so.
Activity will continue to wane through the night. Have included
TSRA at several sites with VCTS at the remainder through early
morning. There may be some redevelopment Monday afternoon.
Otherwise VFR conditions are expected outside of the thunderstorm
with MVFR to occasional IFR conditions expected.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...(ISSUED 726 PM CDT SUN JUN 26 2016)

DISCUSSION...

Updated for the 00z aviation discussion below.

AVIATION...

An increase in convective coverage is expected through the evening
and overnight hours in the northern half of the state as a line of
storms moves in from the north. A lull in activity may occur later
tonight, but more widespread showers and thunderstorms are
expected on Monday. Have tempo groups in at KHRO and KBPK for the
line of storms coming into northern Arkansas this evening, but
will go with VCTS at all sites later in the period to account for
storms tommorrow.

PREV DISCUSSION...(ISSUED 221 PM CDT SUN JUN 26 2016)

SHORT TERM...Tonight Through Tuesday

Some isolated to widely scattered SHRA/TSRA have been developing
across the CWA the past few hrs this Sun...which will continue
through the rest of the afternoon and early evening hrs.
Otherwise...temps have warmed into the 90s for most location outside
of this rainfall...with heat index values peaking in the 100 to 105
range for most areas.

Coverage of SHRA/TSRA should decrease this evening into the
overnight hrs for most areas with the loss of daytime heating.
However...an upper shortwave will be dropping SE late tonight and
for Mon...which could trigger additional SHRA/TSRA across NRN
sections of the CWA late tonight into early Mon. This upper wave
will continue moving SE over the CWA during the daylight hrs on
Mon...with scattered SHRA/TSRA expected. Keep a mention of high end
chance to low end likely pops as many areas will see some
rainfall...but not everyone will see precip throughout the day. As a
result of these increased rain chances...temps will be cooler than
seen this Sun...especially across the NRN counties.

By Mon night and especially Tue...the best chances for precip will
drop south over time as this upper wave drops south of the state.
The main cold front will still be north of the state by the end of
the short term period...so temps should continue in the mid 80s to
mid 90s on Tue. Cooler and drier conditions will then be seen
starting off the long term period as this next front moves through
the CWA.

LONG TERM...Tuesday Night Through Sunday

With the upper ridge positioned well to the west, and troughing in
the vicinity of the eastern seaboard, upper flow will be
northwesterly through the long term periods.

Aside from much more tolerable temperatures, this upper pattern will
be conducive for bringing upper level systems through the region,
bringing an increased shot at rainfall. By the end of the work week,
a frontal boundary will move into the state and may even end up
stalling, which would provide a better focusing mechanism for more
organized convection (not primarily diurnally-driven). In fact, with
the front meandering around, and upper level impulses interacting
with it, mesoscale convective systems may become more of a concern
by the weekend. Stay tuned.

&&

.LZK Watches/Warnings/Advisories...NONE.
&&

$$


Aviation...56




000
FXUS64 KLZK 270531
AFDLZK

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Little Rock AR
1231 AM CDT MON JUN 27 2016

.AVIATION...
Convection continues over west central and parts of southern
Arkansas with a slow weakening trend over the past hour or so.
Activity will continue to wane through the night. Have included
TSRA at several sites with VCTS at the remainder through early
morning. There may be some redevelopment Monday afternoon.
Otherwise VFR conditions are expected outside of the thunderstorm
with MVFR to occasional IFR conditions expected.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...(ISSUED 726 PM CDT SUN JUN 26 2016)

DISCUSSION...

Updated for the 00z aviation discussion below.

AVIATION...

An increase in convective coverage is expected through the evening
and overnight hours in the northern half of the state as a line of
storms moves in from the north. A lull in activity may occur later
tonight, but more widespread showers and thunderstorms are
expected on Monday. Have tempo groups in at KHRO and KBPK for the
line of storms coming into northern Arkansas this evening, but
will go with VCTS at all sites later in the period to account for
storms tommorrow.

PREV DISCUSSION...(ISSUED 221 PM CDT SUN JUN 26 2016)

SHORT TERM...Tonight Through Tuesday

Some isolated to widely scattered SHRA/TSRA have been developing
across the CWA the past few hrs this Sun...which will continue
through the rest of the afternoon and early evening hrs.
Otherwise...temps have warmed into the 90s for most location outside
of this rainfall...with heat index values peaking in the 100 to 105
range for most areas.

Coverage of SHRA/TSRA should decrease this evening into the
overnight hrs for most areas with the loss of daytime heating.
However...an upper shortwave will be dropping SE late tonight and
for Mon...which could trigger additional SHRA/TSRA across NRN
sections of the CWA late tonight into early Mon. This upper wave
will continue moving SE over the CWA during the daylight hrs on
Mon...with scattered SHRA/TSRA expected. Keep a mention of high end
chance to low end likely pops as many areas will see some
rainfall...but not everyone will see precip throughout the day. As a
result of these increased rain chances...temps will be cooler than
seen this Sun...especially across the NRN counties.

By Mon night and especially Tue...the best chances for precip will
drop south over time as this upper wave drops south of the state.
The main cold front will still be north of the state by the end of
the short term period...so temps should continue in the mid 80s to
mid 90s on Tue. Cooler and drier conditions will then be seen
starting off the long term period as this next front moves through
the CWA.

LONG TERM...Tuesday Night Through Sunday

With the upper ridge positioned well to the west, and troughing in
the vicinity of the eastern seaboard, upper flow will be
northwesterly through the long term periods.

Aside from much more tolerable temperatures, this upper pattern will
be conducive for bringing upper level systems through the region,
bringing an increased shot at rainfall. By the end of the work week,
a frontal boundary will move into the state and may even end up
stalling, which would provide a better focusing mechanism for more
organized convection (not primarily diurnally-driven). In fact, with
the front meandering around, and upper level impulses interacting
with it, mesoscale convective systems may become more of a concern
by the weekend. Stay tuned.

&&

.LZK Watches/Warnings/Advisories...NONE.
&&

$$


Aviation...56




000
FXUS64 KLZK 270026 AAA
AFDLZK

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Little Rock AR
726 PM CDT SUN JUN 26 2016

.DISCUSSION...

Updated for the 00z aviation discussion below.

&&

.AVIATION...

An increase in convective coverage is expected through the evening
and overnight hours in the northern half of the state as a line of
storms moves in from the north. A lull in activity may occur later
tonight, but more widespread showers and thunderstorms are
expected on Monday. Have tempo groups in at KHRO and KBPK for the
line of storms coming into northern Arkansas this evening, but
will go with VCTS at all sites later in the period to account for
storms tommorrow.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...(ISSUED 221 PM CDT SUN JUN 26 2016)

SHORT TERM...Tonight Through Tuesday

Some isolated to widely scattered SHRA/TSRA have been developing
across the CWA the past few hrs this Sun...which will continue
through the rest of the afternoon and early evening hrs.
Otherwise...temps have warmed into the 90s for most location outside
of this rainfall...with heat index values peaking in the 100 to 105
range for most areas.

Coverage of SHRA/TSRA should decrease this evening into the
overnight hrs for most areas with the loss of daytime heating.
However...an upper shortwave will be dropping SE late tonight and
for Mon...which could trigger additional SHRA/TSRA across NRN
sections of the CWA late tonight into early Mon. This upper wave
will continue moving SE over the CWA during the daylight hrs on
Mon...with scattered SHRA/TSRA expected. Keep a mention of high end
chance to low end likely pops as many areas will see some
rainfall...but not everyone will see precip throughout the day. As a
result of these increased rain chances...temps will be cooler than
seen this Sun...especially across the NRN counties.

By Mon night and especially Tue...the best chances for precip will
drop south over time as this upper wave drops south of the state.
The main cold front will still be north of the state by the end of
the short term period...so temps should continue in the mid 80s to
mid 90s on Tue. Cooler and drier conditions will then be seen
starting off the long term period as this next front moves through
the CWA.

LONG TERM...Tuesday Night Through Sunday

With the upper ridge positioned well to the west, and troughing in
the vicinity of the eastern seaboard, upper flow will be
northwesterly through the long term periods.

Aside from much more tolerable temperatures, this upper pattern will
be conducive for bringing upper level systems through the region,
bringing an increased shot at rainfall. By the end of the work week,
a frontal boundary will move into the state and may even end up
stalling, which would provide a better focusing mechanism for more
organized convection (not primarily diurnally-driven). In fact, with
the front meandering around, and upper level impulses interacting
with it, mesoscale convective systems may become more of a concern
by the weekend. Stay tuned.

&&

.LZK Watches/Warnings/Advisories...NONE.
&&

$$


Aviation...64




000
FXUS64 KLZK 261921
AFDLZK

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Little Rock AR
221 PM CDT SUN JUN 26 2016

.SHORT TERM...Tonight Through Tuesday

Some isolated to widely scattered SHRA/TSRA have been developing
across the CWA the past few hrs this Sun...which will continue
through the rest of the afternoon and early evening hrs.
Otherwise...temps have warmed into the 90s for most location outside
of this rainfall...with heat index values peaking in the 100 to 105
range for most areas.

Coverage of SHRA/TSRA should decrease this evening into the
overnight hrs for most areas with the loss of daytime heating.
However...an upper shortwave will be dropping SE late tonight and
for Mon...which could trigger additional SHRA/TSRA across NRN
sections of the CWA late tonight into early Mon. This upper wave
will continue moving SE over the CWA during the daylight hrs on
Mon...with scattered SHRA/TSRA expected. Keep a mention of high end
chance to low end likely pops as many areas will see some
rainfall...but not everyone will see precip throughout the day. As a
result of these increased rain chances...temps will be cooler than
seen this Sun...especially across the NRN counties.

By Mon night and especially Tue...the best chances for precip will
drop south over time as this upper wave drops south of the state.
The main cold front will still be north of the state by the end of
the short term period...so temps should continue in the mid 80s to
mid 90s on Tue. Cooler and drier conditions will then be seen
starting off the long term period as this next front moves through
the CWA.

&&

.LONG TERM...Tuesday Night Through Sunday

With the upper ridge positioned well to the west, and troughing in
the vicinity of the eastern seaboard, upper flow will be
northwesterly through the long term periods.

Aside from much more tolerable temperatures, this upper pattern will
be conducive for bringing upper level systems through the region,
bringing an increased shot at rainfall. By the end of the work week,
a frontal boundary will move into the state and may even end up
stalling, which would provide a better focusing mechanism for more
organized convection (not primarily diurnally-driven). In fact, with
the front meandering around, and upper level impulses interacting
with it, mesoscale convective systems may become more of a concern
by the weekend. Stay tuned.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Batesville AR     75  88  69  89 /  30  60  30  10
Camden AR         77  94  73  90 /  20  50  40  40
Harrison AR       72  84  66  88 /  40  50  20  10
Hot Springs AR    77  91  72  90 /  30  50  30  20
Little Rock   AR  78  91  73  91 /  30  60  30  20
Monticello AR     78  93  74  88 /  20  50  40  40
Mount Ida AR      74  91  71  90 /  30  50  30  20
Mountain Home AR  73  85  67  89 /  40  50  20  10
Newport AR        77  89  70  90 /  30  60  30  10
Pine Bluff AR     78  92  74  89 /  20  60  30  30
Russellville AR   75  90  71  91 /  30  60  30  10
Searcy AR         77  90  71  90 /  30  60  30  10
Stuttgart AR      78  91  73  89 /  30  60  30  20
&&

.LZK Watches/Warnings/Advisories...NONE.
&&

$$

Short Term...62 / Long Term...57




000
FXUS64 KLZK 261921
AFDLZK

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Little Rock AR
221 PM CDT SUN JUN 26 2016

.SHORT TERM...Tonight Through Tuesday

Some isolated to widely scattered SHRA/TSRA have been developing
across the CWA the past few hrs this Sun...which will continue
through the rest of the afternoon and early evening hrs.
Otherwise...temps have warmed into the 90s for most location outside
of this rainfall...with heat index values peaking in the 100 to 105
range for most areas.

Coverage of SHRA/TSRA should decrease this evening into the
overnight hrs for most areas with the loss of daytime heating.
However...an upper shortwave will be dropping SE late tonight and
for Mon...which could trigger additional SHRA/TSRA across NRN
sections of the CWA late tonight into early Mon. This upper wave
will continue moving SE over the CWA during the daylight hrs on
Mon...with scattered SHRA/TSRA expected. Keep a mention of high end
chance to low end likely pops as many areas will see some
rainfall...but not everyone will see precip throughout the day. As a
result of these increased rain chances...temps will be cooler than
seen this Sun...especially across the NRN counties.

By Mon night and especially Tue...the best chances for precip will
drop south over time as this upper wave drops south of the state.
The main cold front will still be north of the state by the end of
the short term period...so temps should continue in the mid 80s to
mid 90s on Tue. Cooler and drier conditions will then be seen
starting off the long term period as this next front moves through
the CWA.

&&

.LONG TERM...Tuesday Night Through Sunday

With the upper ridge positioned well to the west, and troughing in
the vicinity of the eastern seaboard, upper flow will be
northwesterly through the long term periods.

Aside from much more tolerable temperatures, this upper pattern will
be conducive for bringing upper level systems through the region,
bringing an increased shot at rainfall. By the end of the work week,
a frontal boundary will move into the state and may even end up
stalling, which would provide a better focusing mechanism for more
organized convection (not primarily diurnally-driven). In fact, with
the front meandering around, and upper level impulses interacting
with it, mesoscale convective systems may become more of a concern
by the weekend. Stay tuned.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Batesville AR     75  88  69  89 /  30  60  30  10
Camden AR         77  94  73  90 /  20  50  40  40
Harrison AR       72  84  66  88 /  40  50  20  10
Hot Springs AR    77  91  72  90 /  30  50  30  20
Little Rock   AR  78  91  73  91 /  30  60  30  20
Monticello AR     78  93  74  88 /  20  50  40  40
Mount Ida AR      74  91  71  90 /  30  50  30  20
Mountain Home AR  73  85  67  89 /  40  50  20  10
Newport AR        77  89  70  90 /  30  60  30  10
Pine Bluff AR     78  92  74  89 /  20  60  30  30
Russellville AR   75  90  71  91 /  30  60  30  10
Searcy AR         77  90  71  90 /  30  60  30  10
Stuttgart AR      78  91  73  89 /  30  60  30  20
&&

.LZK Watches/Warnings/Advisories...NONE.
&&

$$

Short Term...62 / Long Term...57




000
FXUS64 KLZK 261717 AAA
AFDLZK

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Little Rock AR
1217 PM CDT SUN JUN 26 2016

.DISCUSSION...

Updated to include the 18Z aviation discussion below...

&&

.AVIATION...

Expect some isolated to scattered SHRA/TSRA through this afternoon
as a result of the afternoon heating. This afternoon...coverage
should decrease...but some isolated SHRA could be seen. NRN sites
may see a bit more widespread SHRA/TSRA overnight...with this
trend dropping south for Mon morning. Some patchy fog could be
seen...as well as decreased flight rules under any convective
activity.

&&

PREV DISCUSSION...(ISSUED 327 AM CDT SUN JUN 26 2016)

SHORT TERM ...Today through Monday night

Latest surface analysis places a frontal boundary stretching from
the Texas panhandle through the central plains and into the Great
Lakes region. Front continues to be active with several thunderstorm
complexes along it but the boundary itself is making slow progress
against the weakened, but persistent, upper ridge.

Precipitation chances will be higher today versus previous days but
still, only isolated showers and thunderstorms are expected in the
increasingly unstable air mass.  Highs will again be in the upper
80s to upper 90s with dew points back in the 70s. However, The
resulting heat index values will still remain below heat advisory
criteria.

The overall pattern will begin to transition back to ridging over
the Rockies and subsequent downstream troffing starting Sunday night
and into Monday. This pattern shift will result in northwest flow
aloft returning to the state by Monday. As such, the aforementioned
cold front will move through the state on Monday with a subsequent
increase in showers and thunderstorms.

The front will be accompanied by a weak upper level impulse moving
along the boundary but even so, only chance pops are warranted. The
front will clear the state as the short term period wraps up with
rain chances tapering of from north to south Monday night.

Long Term...Tuesday Through Saturday

The upper ridge will be centered over the four corners region
Tuesday. As this ridge strengthens over the western U.S...northwest
flow will develop over Arkansas. This will bring better chances of
showers and thunderstorms across the state during the coming week.

A cold front will be located across north Arkansas Tuesday morning.
Chances for showers and thunderstorms will increase as the front
moves through the area. The front should move through central
Arkansas Tuesday afternoon and exit the state Tuesday night. This
front will stall in northern Louisiana but may waffle around the
Louisiana and Arkansas border Thursday and Friday. Short waves are
expected to move through the northwest flow Thursday and Friday to
bring increased chnaces of thunderstorms. Tuesday night through
Wednesday will be dry with surface high pressure in control.
Cooler temperatures are expected for Tuesday through Saturday.

&&

.LZK Watches/Warnings/Advisories...NONE.
&&

$$


Aviation...62




000
FXUS64 KLZK 261136
AFDLZK

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Little Rock AR
636 AM CDT SUN JUN 26 2016

.AVIATION...

VFR conditions should prevail through the period...aside from some
MVFR visibility restrictions at KADF this morning and at most
sites late in the period. Some scattered convection is expected
this afternoon but coverage is expected to be sparse enough that
VCSH/VCTS will suffice at at this time. Light south to southwest
flow will prevail.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...(ISSUED 327 AM CDT SUN JUN 26 2016
)

SHORT TERM ...Today through Monday night

Latest surface analysis places a frontal boundary stretching from
the Texas panhandle through the central plains and into the Great
Lakes region. Front continues to be active with several thunderstorm
complexes along it but the boundary itself is making slow progress
against the weakened, but persistent, upper ridge.

Precipitation chances will be higher today versus previous days but
still, only isolated showers and thunderstorms are expected in the
increasingly unstable air mass.  Highs will again be in the upper
80s to upper 90s with dew points back in the 70s. However, The
resulting heat index values will still remain below heat advisory
criteria.

The overall pattern will begin to transition back to ridging over
the Rockies and subsequent downstream troffing starting Sunday night
and into Monday. This pattern shift will result in northwest flow
aloft returning to the state by Monday. As such, the aforementioned
cold front will move through the state on Monday with a subsequent
increase in showers and thunderstorms.

The front will be accompanied by a weak upper level impulse moving
along the boundary but even so, only chance pops are warranted. The
front will clear the state as the short term period wraps up with
rain chances tapering of from north to south Monday night.

Long Term...Tuesday Through Saturday

The upper ridge will be centered over the four corners region
Tuesday. As this ridge strengthens over the western U.S...northwest
flow will develop over Arkansas. This will bring better chances of
showers and thunderstorms across the state during the coming week.

A cold front will be located across north Arkansas Tuesday morning.
Chances for showers and thunderstorms will increase as the front
moves through the area. The front should move through central
Arkansas Tuesday afternoon and exit the state Tuesday night. This
front will stall in northern Louisiana but may waffle around the
Louisiana and Arkansas border Thursday and Friday. Short waves are
expected to move through the northwest flow Thursday and Friday to
bring increased chnaces of thunderstorms. Tuesday night through
Wednesday will be dry with surface high pressure in control.
Cooler temperatures are expected for Tuesday through Saturday.

&&

.LZK Watches/Warnings/Advisories...NONE.
&&

$$


Aviation...56




000
FXUS64 KLZK 261136
AFDLZK

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Little Rock AR
636 AM CDT SUN JUN 26 2016

.AVIATION...

VFR conditions should prevail through the period...aside from some
MVFR visibility restrictions at KADF this morning and at most
sites late in the period. Some scattered convection is expected
this afternoon but coverage is expected to be sparse enough that
VCSH/VCTS will suffice at at this time. Light south to southwest
flow will prevail.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...(ISSUED 327 AM CDT SUN JUN 26 2016
)

SHORT TERM ...Today through Monday night

Latest surface analysis places a frontal boundary stretching from
the Texas panhandle through the central plains and into the Great
Lakes region. Front continues to be active with several thunderstorm
complexes along it but the boundary itself is making slow progress
against the weakened, but persistent, upper ridge.

Precipitation chances will be higher today versus previous days but
still, only isolated showers and thunderstorms are expected in the
increasingly unstable air mass.  Highs will again be in the upper
80s to upper 90s with dew points back in the 70s. However, The
resulting heat index values will still remain below heat advisory
criteria.

The overall pattern will begin to transition back to ridging over
the Rockies and subsequent downstream troffing starting Sunday night
and into Monday. This pattern shift will result in northwest flow
aloft returning to the state by Monday. As such, the aforementioned
cold front will move through the state on Monday with a subsequent
increase in showers and thunderstorms.

The front will be accompanied by a weak upper level impulse moving
along the boundary but even so, only chance pops are warranted. The
front will clear the state as the short term period wraps up with
rain chances tapering of from north to south Monday night.

Long Term...Tuesday Through Saturday

The upper ridge will be centered over the four corners region
Tuesday. As this ridge strengthens over the western U.S...northwest
flow will develop over Arkansas. This will bring better chances of
showers and thunderstorms across the state during the coming week.

A cold front will be located across north Arkansas Tuesday morning.
Chances for showers and thunderstorms will increase as the front
moves through the area. The front should move through central
Arkansas Tuesday afternoon and exit the state Tuesday night. This
front will stall in northern Louisiana but may waffle around the
Louisiana and Arkansas border Thursday and Friday. Short waves are
expected to move through the northwest flow Thursday and Friday to
bring increased chnaces of thunderstorms. Tuesday night through
Wednesday will be dry with surface high pressure in control.
Cooler temperatures are expected for Tuesday through Saturday.

&&

.LZK Watches/Warnings/Advisories...NONE.
&&

$$


Aviation...56




000
FXUS64 KLZK 260827
AFDLZK

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Little Rock AR
327 AM CDT SUN JUN 26 2016

.SHORT TERM ...Today through Monday night

Latest surface analysis places a frontal boundary stretching from
the Texas panhandle through the central plains and into the Great
Lakes region. Front continues to be active with several thunderstorm
complexes along it but the boundary itself is making slow progress
against the weakened, but persistent, upper ridge.

Precipitation chances will be higher today versus previous days but
still, only isolated showers and thunderstorms are expected in the
increasingly unstable air mass.  Highs will again be in the upper
80s to upper 90s with dew points back in the 70s. However, The
resulting heat index values will still remain below heat advisory
criteria.

The overall pattern will begin to transition back to ridging over
the Rockies and subsequent downstream troffing starting Sunday night
and into Monday. This pattern shift will result in northwest flow
aloft returning to the state by Monday. As such, the aforementioned
cold front will move through the state on Monday with a subsequent
increase in showers and thunderstorms.

The front will be accompanied by a weak upper level impulse moving
along the boundary but even so, only chance pops are warranted. The
front will clear the state as the short term period wraps up with
rain chances tapering of from north to south Monday night.
&&

.Long Term...Tuesday Through Saturday

The upper ridge will be centered over the four corners region
Tuesday. As this ridge strengthens over the western U.S...northwest
flow will develop over Arkansas. This will bring better chances of
showers and thunderstorms across the state during the coming week.

A cold front will be located across north Arkansas Tuesday morning.
Chances for showers and thunderstorms will increase as the front
moves through the area. The front should move through central
Arkansas Tuesday afternoon and exit the state Tuesday night. This
front will stall in northern Louisiana but may waffle around the
Louisiana and Arkansas border Thursday and Friday. Short waves are
expected to move through the northwest flow Thursday and Friday to
bring increased chnaces of thunderstorms. Tuesday night through
Wednesday will be dry with surface high pressure in control.
Cooler temperatures are expected for Tuesday through Saturday.
&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Batesville AR     94  75  90  71 /  20  30  50  30
Camden AR         96  77  95  74 /  20  20  50  40
Harrison AR       92  72  86  68 /  20  30  50  20
Hot Springs AR    95  76  92  74 /  20  20  50  30
Little Rock   AR  96  78  94  74 /  20  20  50  30
Monticello AR     96  77  94  75 /  20  20  40  40
Mount Ida AR      94  73  91  72 /  20  20  50  30
Mountain Home AR  93  73  88  69 /  20  30  50  20
Newport AR        95  76  91  72 /  20  30  50  30
Pine Bluff AR     96  78  93  74 /  20  20  50  40
Russellville AR   95  75  91  72 /  20  30  50  30
Searcy AR         95  76  92  72 /  20  20  50  30
Stuttgart AR      96  78  93  73 /  20  20  50  40
&&

.LZK Watches/Warnings/Advisories...NONE.
&&

$$

Short Term...56 / Long Term...51




000
FXUS64 KLZK 260533
AFDLZK

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Little Rock AR
1233 AM CDT SUN JUN 26 2016

.AVIATION...

VFR conditions should prevail through the period...aside from some
MVFR visibility restrictions at KADF for a few hours leading up to
daybreak this morning. Some scattered convection is expected this
afternoon but coverage is expected to be sparse enough to preclude
advertising even VCSH/VCTS at any terminal at this time.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...(ISSUED 642 PM CDT SAT JUN 25 2016)

DISCUSSION...

Updated for the 00z aviation discussion below.

AVIATION...

Afternoon CU field will continue to dissipate this evening, with
SKC of FEW250 expected during the overnight hours at most sites.
The one exception will be KADF where some early morning fog will
once again be a possibility. Have a tempo group from 09z-13z to
cover this. For Sunday, expect CU field with SCT050 bases to
develop by mid morning, with light south to southwest winds in the
morning increasing to 8-10kt by 17z or so.

PREV DISCUSSION...(ISSUED 156 PM CDT SAT JUN 25 2016)

DISCUSSION...

Some more comfortable conditions are ongoing this afternoon across
the CWA as a result of lower dewpts. This drier air is also keeping
precip potential lower than seen on Fri...but a few isolated SHRA
have attempted to develop across SWRN and NERN sections.
Otherwise...only afternoon CU have been observed. As a result...keep
only the NERN and SWRN counties with slight chances for isolated
afternoon convection for the rest of the afternoon hrs.

Precip chances increase somewhat for Sun...but even then will only
see isolated to scattered SHRA/TSRA. Temps on Sun will also likely
be the warmest of the entire forecast. Highs will again be in the
upper 80s to upper 90s. Dewpts should be higher on Sun compared to
this afternoon...but should see resulting heat index values remain
below heat adv criteria.

The first part of the new work week will be the transition period as
the overall upper flow pattern will shift...with some change
expected compared to the previous several days. The upper level
ridge/trough orientation will shift west starting next week. As this
happens...Wx over AR will become a bit more unsettled and less
oppressively hot/humid. With flow over AR transitioning to a NW flow
aloft...cold fronts will have better potential to move south through
the state. As a result...some slightly cooler and somewhat drier air
will be seen...especially by the middle of next week.

For Mon...a weak upper disturbance will pass overhead as a cold
front drops south through MO. Expect more scattered convective
activity ahead of this approaching front on Mon as the upper
disturbance drops SE over the state. While the potential for
widespread convective activity is not expected...this will be day of
highest precip potential over the past week or so for a large
portion of the CWA. Even so...not expecting a complete washout...and
as a result...have only mentioned high end chance pops.

Precip potential then decreases Tue into Wed as the cold front will
have pushed SW through most of the state. By Thu into Fri
however...a new...fast moving upper level shortwave trough will drop
SE through the Plains into the OH River Valley region...and some
upper level energy associated with this wave will move SE in the NW
flow aloft over AR. This will bring increased precip potential late
in the forecast.

&&

.LZK Watches/Warnings/Advisories...NONE.
&&

$$


Aviation...56




000
FXUS64 KLZK 260533
AFDLZK

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Little Rock AR
1233 AM CDT SUN JUN 26 2016

.AVIATION...

VFR conditions should prevail through the period...aside from some
MVFR visibility restrictions at KADF for a few hours leading up to
daybreak this morning. Some scattered convection is expected this
afternoon but coverage is expected to be sparse enough to preclude
advertising even VCSH/VCTS at any terminal at this time.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...(ISSUED 642 PM CDT SAT JUN 25 2016)

DISCUSSION...

Updated for the 00z aviation discussion below.

AVIATION...

Afternoon CU field will continue to dissipate this evening, with
SKC of FEW250 expected during the overnight hours at most sites.
The one exception will be KADF where some early morning fog will
once again be a possibility. Have a tempo group from 09z-13z to
cover this. For Sunday, expect CU field with SCT050 bases to
develop by mid morning, with light south to southwest winds in the
morning increasing to 8-10kt by 17z or so.

PREV DISCUSSION...(ISSUED 156 PM CDT SAT JUN 25 2016)

DISCUSSION...

Some more comfortable conditions are ongoing this afternoon across
the CWA as a result of lower dewpts. This drier air is also keeping
precip potential lower than seen on Fri...but a few isolated SHRA
have attempted to develop across SWRN and NERN sections.
Otherwise...only afternoon CU have been observed. As a result...keep
only the NERN and SWRN counties with slight chances for isolated
afternoon convection for the rest of the afternoon hrs.

Precip chances increase somewhat for Sun...but even then will only
see isolated to scattered SHRA/TSRA. Temps on Sun will also likely
be the warmest of the entire forecast. Highs will again be in the
upper 80s to upper 90s. Dewpts should be higher on Sun compared to
this afternoon...but should see resulting heat index values remain
below heat adv criteria.

The first part of the new work week will be the transition period as
the overall upper flow pattern will shift...with some change
expected compared to the previous several days. The upper level
ridge/trough orientation will shift west starting next week. As this
happens...Wx over AR will become a bit more unsettled and less
oppressively hot/humid. With flow over AR transitioning to a NW flow
aloft...cold fronts will have better potential to move south through
the state. As a result...some slightly cooler and somewhat drier air
will be seen...especially by the middle of next week.

For Mon...a weak upper disturbance will pass overhead as a cold
front drops south through MO. Expect more scattered convective
activity ahead of this approaching front on Mon as the upper
disturbance drops SE over the state. While the potential for
widespread convective activity is not expected...this will be day of
highest precip potential over the past week or so for a large
portion of the CWA. Even so...not expecting a complete washout...and
as a result...have only mentioned high end chance pops.

Precip potential then decreases Tue into Wed as the cold front will
have pushed SW through most of the state. By Thu into Fri
however...a new...fast moving upper level shortwave trough will drop
SE through the Plains into the OH River Valley region...and some
upper level energy associated with this wave will move SE in the NW
flow aloft over AR. This will bring increased precip potential late
in the forecast.

&&

.LZK Watches/Warnings/Advisories...NONE.
&&

$$


Aviation...56




000
FXUS64 KLZK 252342 AAA
AFDLZK

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Little Rock AR
642 PM CDT SAT JUN 25 2016

.DISCUSSION...

Updated for the 00z aviation discussion below.

&&

.AVIATION...

Afternoon CU field will continue to dissipate this evening, with
SKC of FEW250 expected during the overnight hours at most sites.
The one exception will be KADF where some early morning fog will
once again be a possibility. Have a tempo group from 09z-13z to
cover this. For Sunday, expect CU field with SCT050 bases to
develop by mid morning, with light south to southwest winds in the
morning increasing to 8-10kt by 17z or so.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...(ISSUED 156 PM CDT SAT JUN 25 2016)

DISCUSSION...

Some more comfortable conditions are ongoing this afternoon across
the CWA as a result of lower dewpts. This drier air is also keeping
precip potential lower than seen on Fri...but a few isolated SHRA
have attempted to develop across SWRN and NERN sections.
Otherwise...only afternoon CU have been observed. As a result...keep
only the NERN and SWRN counties with slight chances for isolated
afternoon convection for the rest of the afternoon hrs.

Precip chances increase somewhat for Sun...but even then will only
see isolated to scattered SHRA/TSRA. Temps on Sun will also likely
be the warmest of the entire forecast. Highs will again be in the
upper 80s to upper 90s. Dewpts should be higher on Sun compared to
this afternoon...but should see resulting heat index values remain
below heat adv criteria.

The first part of the new work week will be the transition period as
the overall upper flow pattern will shift...with some change
expected compared to the previous several days. The upper level
ridge/trough orientation will shift west starting next week. As this
happens...Wx over AR will become a bit more unsettled and less
oppressively hot/humid. With flow over AR transitioning to a NW flow
aloft...cold fronts will have better potential to move south through
the state. As a result...some slightly cooler and somewhat drier air
will be seen...especially by the middle of next week.

For Mon...a weak upper disturbance will pass overhead as a cold
front drops south through MO. Expect more scattered convective
activity ahead of this approaching front on Mon as the upper
disturbance drops SE over the state. While the potential for
widespread convective activity is not expected...this will be day of
highest precip potential over the past week or so for a large
portion of the CWA. Even so...not expecting a complete washout...and
as a result...have only mentioned high end chance pops.

Precip potential then decreases Tue into Wed as the cold front will
have pushed SW through most of the state. By Thu into Fri
however...a new...fast moving upper level shortwave trough will drop
SE through the Plains into the OH River Valley region...and some
upper level energy associated with this wave will move SE in the NW
flow aloft over AR. This will bring increased precip potential late
in the forecast.

&&

.LZK Watches/Warnings/Advisories...NONE.
&&

$$


Aviation...64




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