Home > Products > State Listing > Arkansas Data
Latest:
 AFDLZK |
  [top]

000
FXUS64 KLZK 020916
AFDLZK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
416 AM CDT THU OCT 2 2014

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT
LOWER LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE HAVE BECOME RATHER MOIST IN THE
LAST 24 HOURS...WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE MID 60S TO LOWER 70S.
MEANWHILE...A COLD FRONT EXTENDED FROM MINNESOTA TO THE TEXAS
PANHANDLE. AHEAD OF THE FRONT...SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WERE
ALREADY POPPING UP FROM CENTRAL ILLINOIS INTO MISSOURI AND
NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA.

THE FRONT WILL HEAD TOWARD ARKANSAS LATER THIS AFTERNOON. ISOLATED
TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE STATE...WITH
BREEZY SOUTHWEST WINDS AND ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES IN THE
FORECAST.

THUNDERSTORMS WILL BECOME LIKELY THIS EVENING AS THE FRONT ARRIVES.
A LINE OF STORMS IS EXPECTED TO AFFECT THE FAR WESTERN COUNTIES
AROUND 700 PM CDT...WITH THE STORMS RACING ACROSS THE STATE IN
ABOUT SIX HOURS.

GIVEN A FAST STORM MOVEMENT...STRONG TO DAMAGING WINDS USUALLY BECOME
A CONCERN. THAT WILL BE THE CASE DURING THIS EVENT...WITH AT
LEAST SOME WIND DAMAGE ANTICIPATED.

A MOISTURE LOADED ATMOSPHERE WILL LEAD TO TORRENTIAL DOWNPOURS
WHEN THE STORMS GO THROUGH. THIS WILL RESULT IN A QUICK HALF INCH
TO INCH AND A HALF OF RAIN.

WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE WEST AND NORTHWEST AS THE STORMS GO BY AND
THE FRONT PASSES. GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS WILL BE NOTED ON FRIDAY...AND
A LAKE WIND ADVISORY MAY BE REQUIRED. RAPID CLEARING WILL OCCUR AS
THE AIR DRIES OUT BEHIND THE FRONT.

THE PERIOD WILL END WITH DRY WEATHER THIS WEEKEND AND BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES.
&&

.LONG TERM...MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY
FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT BETWEEN FORECAST MODEL SOLUTIONS TO START THE
LONG TERM PERIOD AS THE CENTER OF THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL BE
JUST NORTH OF THE GREAT LAKES REGION. THIS WILL PROVIDE A NORTHWEST
FLOW OVER THE STATE FOR MUCH OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD.

IT APPEARS THAT AN EMBEDDED SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL DEVELOP AND ROUND
THE BASE OF THE UPPER TROUGH LATE MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. THERE MAY BE
ENOUGH LIFT AND MOISTURE IN PLACE TO BRING SOME SHOWERS TO THE AREA.
THE LONG TERM WILL BE DRY OTHERWISE...WITH TEMPERATURES STARTING OUT
NEAR SEASONAL NORMAL BEFORE A WARMING TREND COMMENCES.
&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BATESVILLE AR     85  60  73  43 /  30  90  10   0
CAMDEN AR         90  65  78  47 /  30  90  10   0
HARRISON AR       85  55  67  39 /  60  90  10   0
HOT SPRINGS AR    87  62  75  44 /  30  90  10   0
LITTLE ROCK   AR  87  64  76  45 /  30  90  10   0
MONTICELLO AR     90  67  78  48 /  30  90  10   0
MOUNT IDA AR      86  59  73  43 /  30  90  10   0
MOUNTAIN HOME AR  85  57  69  40 /  40  90  10   0
NEWPORT AR        86  62  74  44 /  30  90  10   0
PINE BLUFF AR     88  65  77  47 /  30  80  10   0
RUSSELLVILLE AR   86  60  74  43 /  30  90  10   0
SEARCY AR         86  63  76  45 /  30  90  10   0
STUTTGART AR      87  64  76  46 /  30  80  10   0
&&

.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...46 / LONG TERM...226





000
FXUS64 KLZK 020916
AFDLZK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
416 AM CDT THU OCT 2 2014

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT
LOWER LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE HAVE BECOME RATHER MOIST IN THE
LAST 24 HOURS...WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE MID 60S TO LOWER 70S.
MEANWHILE...A COLD FRONT EXTENDED FROM MINNESOTA TO THE TEXAS
PANHANDLE. AHEAD OF THE FRONT...SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WERE
ALREADY POPPING UP FROM CENTRAL ILLINOIS INTO MISSOURI AND
NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA.

THE FRONT WILL HEAD TOWARD ARKANSAS LATER THIS AFTERNOON. ISOLATED
TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE STATE...WITH
BREEZY SOUTHWEST WINDS AND ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES IN THE
FORECAST.

THUNDERSTORMS WILL BECOME LIKELY THIS EVENING AS THE FRONT ARRIVES.
A LINE OF STORMS IS EXPECTED TO AFFECT THE FAR WESTERN COUNTIES
AROUND 700 PM CDT...WITH THE STORMS RACING ACROSS THE STATE IN
ABOUT SIX HOURS.

GIVEN A FAST STORM MOVEMENT...STRONG TO DAMAGING WINDS USUALLY BECOME
A CONCERN. THAT WILL BE THE CASE DURING THIS EVENT...WITH AT
LEAST SOME WIND DAMAGE ANTICIPATED.

A MOISTURE LOADED ATMOSPHERE WILL LEAD TO TORRENTIAL DOWNPOURS
WHEN THE STORMS GO THROUGH. THIS WILL RESULT IN A QUICK HALF INCH
TO INCH AND A HALF OF RAIN.

WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE WEST AND NORTHWEST AS THE STORMS GO BY AND
THE FRONT PASSES. GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS WILL BE NOTED ON FRIDAY...AND
A LAKE WIND ADVISORY MAY BE REQUIRED. RAPID CLEARING WILL OCCUR AS
THE AIR DRIES OUT BEHIND THE FRONT.

THE PERIOD WILL END WITH DRY WEATHER THIS WEEKEND AND BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES.
&&

.LONG TERM...MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY
FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT BETWEEN FORECAST MODEL SOLUTIONS TO START THE
LONG TERM PERIOD AS THE CENTER OF THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL BE
JUST NORTH OF THE GREAT LAKES REGION. THIS WILL PROVIDE A NORTHWEST
FLOW OVER THE STATE FOR MUCH OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD.

IT APPEARS THAT AN EMBEDDED SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL DEVELOP AND ROUND
THE BASE OF THE UPPER TROUGH LATE MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. THERE MAY BE
ENOUGH LIFT AND MOISTURE IN PLACE TO BRING SOME SHOWERS TO THE AREA.
THE LONG TERM WILL BE DRY OTHERWISE...WITH TEMPERATURES STARTING OUT
NEAR SEASONAL NORMAL BEFORE A WARMING TREND COMMENCES.
&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BATESVILLE AR     85  60  73  43 /  30  90  10   0
CAMDEN AR         90  65  78  47 /  30  90  10   0
HARRISON AR       85  55  67  39 /  60  90  10   0
HOT SPRINGS AR    87  62  75  44 /  30  90  10   0
LITTLE ROCK   AR  87  64  76  45 /  30  90  10   0
MONTICELLO AR     90  67  78  48 /  30  90  10   0
MOUNT IDA AR      86  59  73  43 /  30  90  10   0
MOUNTAIN HOME AR  85  57  69  40 /  40  90  10   0
NEWPORT AR        86  62  74  44 /  30  90  10   0
PINE BLUFF AR     88  65  77  47 /  30  80  10   0
RUSSELLVILLE AR   86  60  74  43 /  30  90  10   0
SEARCY AR         86  63  76  45 /  30  90  10   0
STUTTGART AR      87  64  76  46 /  30  80  10   0
&&

.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...46 / LONG TERM...226





000
FXUS64 KLZK 020916
AFDLZK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
416 AM CDT THU OCT 2 2014

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT
LOWER LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE HAVE BECOME RATHER MOIST IN THE
LAST 24 HOURS...WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE MID 60S TO LOWER 70S.
MEANWHILE...A COLD FRONT EXTENDED FROM MINNESOTA TO THE TEXAS
PANHANDLE. AHEAD OF THE FRONT...SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WERE
ALREADY POPPING UP FROM CENTRAL ILLINOIS INTO MISSOURI AND
NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA.

THE FRONT WILL HEAD TOWARD ARKANSAS LATER THIS AFTERNOON. ISOLATED
TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE STATE...WITH
BREEZY SOUTHWEST WINDS AND ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES IN THE
FORECAST.

THUNDERSTORMS WILL BECOME LIKELY THIS EVENING AS THE FRONT ARRIVES.
A LINE OF STORMS IS EXPECTED TO AFFECT THE FAR WESTERN COUNTIES
AROUND 700 PM CDT...WITH THE STORMS RACING ACROSS THE STATE IN
ABOUT SIX HOURS.

GIVEN A FAST STORM MOVEMENT...STRONG TO DAMAGING WINDS USUALLY BECOME
A CONCERN. THAT WILL BE THE CASE DURING THIS EVENT...WITH AT
LEAST SOME WIND DAMAGE ANTICIPATED.

A MOISTURE LOADED ATMOSPHERE WILL LEAD TO TORRENTIAL DOWNPOURS
WHEN THE STORMS GO THROUGH. THIS WILL RESULT IN A QUICK HALF INCH
TO INCH AND A HALF OF RAIN.

WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE WEST AND NORTHWEST AS THE STORMS GO BY AND
THE FRONT PASSES. GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS WILL BE NOTED ON FRIDAY...AND
A LAKE WIND ADVISORY MAY BE REQUIRED. RAPID CLEARING WILL OCCUR AS
THE AIR DRIES OUT BEHIND THE FRONT.

THE PERIOD WILL END WITH DRY WEATHER THIS WEEKEND AND BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES.
&&

.LONG TERM...MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY
FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT BETWEEN FORECAST MODEL SOLUTIONS TO START THE
LONG TERM PERIOD AS THE CENTER OF THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL BE
JUST NORTH OF THE GREAT LAKES REGION. THIS WILL PROVIDE A NORTHWEST
FLOW OVER THE STATE FOR MUCH OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD.

IT APPEARS THAT AN EMBEDDED SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL DEVELOP AND ROUND
THE BASE OF THE UPPER TROUGH LATE MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. THERE MAY BE
ENOUGH LIFT AND MOISTURE IN PLACE TO BRING SOME SHOWERS TO THE AREA.
THE LONG TERM WILL BE DRY OTHERWISE...WITH TEMPERATURES STARTING OUT
NEAR SEASONAL NORMAL BEFORE A WARMING TREND COMMENCES.
&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BATESVILLE AR     85  60  73  43 /  30  90  10   0
CAMDEN AR         90  65  78  47 /  30  90  10   0
HARRISON AR       85  55  67  39 /  60  90  10   0
HOT SPRINGS AR    87  62  75  44 /  30  90  10   0
LITTLE ROCK   AR  87  64  76  45 /  30  90  10   0
MONTICELLO AR     90  67  78  48 /  30  90  10   0
MOUNT IDA AR      86  59  73  43 /  30  90  10   0
MOUNTAIN HOME AR  85  57  69  40 /  40  90  10   0
NEWPORT AR        86  62  74  44 /  30  90  10   0
PINE BLUFF AR     88  65  77  47 /  30  80  10   0
RUSSELLVILLE AR   86  60  74  43 /  30  90  10   0
SEARCY AR         86  63  76  45 /  30  90  10   0
STUTTGART AR      87  64  76  46 /  30  80  10   0
&&

.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...46 / LONG TERM...226





000
FXUS64 KLZK 020916
AFDLZK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
416 AM CDT THU OCT 2 2014

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT
LOWER LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE HAVE BECOME RATHER MOIST IN THE
LAST 24 HOURS...WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE MID 60S TO LOWER 70S.
MEANWHILE...A COLD FRONT EXTENDED FROM MINNESOTA TO THE TEXAS
PANHANDLE. AHEAD OF THE FRONT...SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WERE
ALREADY POPPING UP FROM CENTRAL ILLINOIS INTO MISSOURI AND
NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA.

THE FRONT WILL HEAD TOWARD ARKANSAS LATER THIS AFTERNOON. ISOLATED
TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE STATE...WITH
BREEZY SOUTHWEST WINDS AND ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES IN THE
FORECAST.

THUNDERSTORMS WILL BECOME LIKELY THIS EVENING AS THE FRONT ARRIVES.
A LINE OF STORMS IS EXPECTED TO AFFECT THE FAR WESTERN COUNTIES
AROUND 700 PM CDT...WITH THE STORMS RACING ACROSS THE STATE IN
ABOUT SIX HOURS.

GIVEN A FAST STORM MOVEMENT...STRONG TO DAMAGING WINDS USUALLY BECOME
A CONCERN. THAT WILL BE THE CASE DURING THIS EVENT...WITH AT
LEAST SOME WIND DAMAGE ANTICIPATED.

A MOISTURE LOADED ATMOSPHERE WILL LEAD TO TORRENTIAL DOWNPOURS
WHEN THE STORMS GO THROUGH. THIS WILL RESULT IN A QUICK HALF INCH
TO INCH AND A HALF OF RAIN.

WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE WEST AND NORTHWEST AS THE STORMS GO BY AND
THE FRONT PASSES. GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS WILL BE NOTED ON FRIDAY...AND
A LAKE WIND ADVISORY MAY BE REQUIRED. RAPID CLEARING WILL OCCUR AS
THE AIR DRIES OUT BEHIND THE FRONT.

THE PERIOD WILL END WITH DRY WEATHER THIS WEEKEND AND BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES.
&&

.LONG TERM...MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY
FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT BETWEEN FORECAST MODEL SOLUTIONS TO START THE
LONG TERM PERIOD AS THE CENTER OF THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL BE
JUST NORTH OF THE GREAT LAKES REGION. THIS WILL PROVIDE A NORTHWEST
FLOW OVER THE STATE FOR MUCH OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD.

IT APPEARS THAT AN EMBEDDED SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL DEVELOP AND ROUND
THE BASE OF THE UPPER TROUGH LATE MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. THERE MAY BE
ENOUGH LIFT AND MOISTURE IN PLACE TO BRING SOME SHOWERS TO THE AREA.
THE LONG TERM WILL BE DRY OTHERWISE...WITH TEMPERATURES STARTING OUT
NEAR SEASONAL NORMAL BEFORE A WARMING TREND COMMENCES.
&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BATESVILLE AR     85  60  73  43 /  30  90  10   0
CAMDEN AR         90  65  78  47 /  30  90  10   0
HARRISON AR       85  55  67  39 /  60  90  10   0
HOT SPRINGS AR    87  62  75  44 /  30  90  10   0
LITTLE ROCK   AR  87  64  76  45 /  30  90  10   0
MONTICELLO AR     90  67  78  48 /  30  90  10   0
MOUNT IDA AR      86  59  73  43 /  30  90  10   0
MOUNTAIN HOME AR  85  57  69  40 /  40  90  10   0
NEWPORT AR        86  62  74  44 /  30  90  10   0
PINE BLUFF AR     88  65  77  47 /  30  80  10   0
RUSSELLVILLE AR   86  60  74  43 /  30  90  10   0
SEARCY AR         86  63  76  45 /  30  90  10   0
STUTTGART AR      87  64  76  46 /  30  80  10   0
&&

.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...46 / LONG TERM...226





000
FXUS64 KLZK 020524 AAA
AFDLZK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
1224 AM CDT THU OCT 2 2014

.UPDATE...

UPDATED TO INCLUDE 06Z AVIATION DISCUSSION.

&&

.AVIATION...

INTERESTING WEATHER CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE 06Z TAF
PERIOD. COULD SEE AN INCREASE IN LOW CLOUDS THIS MORNING AS LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE IS INCREASING RAPIDLY ACROSS THE STATE...WHICH
COULD LEAD TO MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS NEAR DAYBREAK. WILL SEE AN INCREASE IN
SOUTHERLY WINDS TODAY AS WELL...WITH SUSTAINED WINDS AOA 10KTS WITH
GUSTS TO 15KTS. VC SH/TS ACTIVITY WILL BE SEEN TODAY...WITH
DIRECT IMPACTS TO TERMINALS NOT LIKELY AS ACTIVITY WILL BE
ISOLATED/SCATTERED. MAIN IMPACTS TO AREA TERMINALS WILL BEGIN
AFTER 03/00Z AS STRONG COLD FRONT WILL HELP INITIATE A LINE OF
STORMS FROM WEST ARKANSAS EASTWARD THROUGH 03/06Z. LOOK FOR SEVERE
WIND GUSTS AS THE LINE MOVES THROUGH...WITH VERY HEAVY RAIN AND
POSSIBLY SOME HAIL AS WELL.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 844 PM CDT WED OCT 1 2014/

UPDATE...
ALL CONVECTION IS NORTH OF ARKANSAS THIS EVENING. THE COLD FRONT
REMAINS IN CENTRAL KANSAS AND WESTERN OKLAHOMA AND WILL MOVE
THROUGH ARKNASAS THURSDAY. SHOWERS AND MOST CLOUDS HAVE DISSIPATED
OVER THE AREA. THEREFORE...HAVE DECREASED CLOUD COVER AND POPS
OVER THE AREA FOR THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. WILL BRING SLIGHT CHANCES
OF PRECIPITATION INTO THE NORTHWEST AFTER MIDNIGHT. RAIN CHANCES
WILL THEN SPREAD SOUTHEAST.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 254 PM CDT WED OCT 1 2014/

SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT

SCATTERED CONVECTION CONTINUES THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS MAINLY THE
EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE STATE...WITH MUCH OF THE PRECIP EXPECTED TO
DIE OFF THIS EVENING WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING.

AN ACTIVE TIME PERIOD IS ANTICIPATED FOR THURSDAY AND INTO THE
EARLY MORNING HOURS ON FRIDAY AS A STRONG COLD FRONT MOVES INTO
THE REGION. CHANCE FOR MORE HIT AND MISS TYPE SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL ONCE AGAIN BE POSSIBLE EARLY ON THURSDAY AS
ABUNDANT MOISTURE CONTINUES TO STREAM NORTHWARD FROM THE GULF
REGION.

HOWEVER...THE BULK OF THE PRECIPITATION WILL BE ALONG AND AHEAD OF
THE FRONT...STARTING IN THE AFTERNOON TO EARLY EVENING ACROSS THE
NORTHWEST...BEFORE SWEEPING ACROSS THE STATE DURING THE EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT HOURS. WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL OCCUR...
WITH SOME STORMS BECOMING STRONG TO SEVERE. GIVEN THE BROAD UPPER
LEVEL LOW AND ELONGATED SURFACE FEATURE...EXPECT A MORE LINEAR
EVENT...WITH STRONG DAMAGING WINDS POSSIBLE. HOWEVER...SURFACE
WINDS WILL TURN SLIGHTLY BACK TO SOUTHEAST AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM...
LEADING TO POTENTIAL OF SOME ROTATING CELLS AND HAIL DEVELOPMENT
AS MID LEVEL TEMPERATURES COOL.

LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE...WITH UP TO TWO INCHES
IN SOME LOCATIONS.

THE FRONT AND PRECIP WILL QUICKLY EXIT THE STATE FRIDAY MORNING...WITH
GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS USHERING MUCH COOLER AND DRIER CONDITIONS INTO
THE STATE. TEMPERATURES WILL BE BACK AT BELOW NORMAL READINGS FOR
THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEKEND.

LONG TERM...SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY

WITH A BROAD RIDGE OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN CONUS AND THE UPPER TROUGH
LIFTING UP OVER THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES AT THE START OF NEXT
WEEK...THE MIDSOUTH WILL EXPERIENCE DRY CONDITIONS WITH TEMPS
CLIMBING BACK INTO THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S ON SUNDAY. THE UPPER
RIDGE WILL ATTEMPT TO SHIFT EAST ON MONDAY WHILE A TRAILING COLD
FRONT DIPS DOWN ACROSS THE REGION LATE MONDAY. AT LEAST AT THIS
POINT THERE DOESNT APPEAR TO BE ENOUGH MOISTURE TO INTERACT THIS FAR
SOUTH SO DID NOT BUMP POPS HIGHER THAN SLIGHT JUST ACROSS THE
NORTHERN BORDER. WEDNESDAY WILL BE UNSEASONABLY WARM AND
HUMID...WITH HIGHS CLIMBING BACK INTO THE 80S AND LOWS IN THE 60S.
BETTER CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION EXIST LATER IN THE WEEK.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BATESVILLE AR     86  60  73  46 /  50  90  10   0
CAMDEN AR         90  65  78  49 /  40  80  10   0
HARRISON AR       83  55  67  40 /  70  70  10   0
HOT SPRINGS AR    86  62  75  48 /  50  90  10   0
LITTLE ROCK   AR  88  64  76  48 /  50  90  10   0
MONTICELLO AR     90  67  78  50 /  30  70  10   0
MOUNT IDA AR      85  59  73  46 /  60  80  10   0
MOUNTAIN HOME AR  85  57  69  43 /  60  80  10   0
NEWPORT AR        87  62  74  46 /  40  90  10   0
PINE BLUFF AR     90  65  77  49 /  40  80  10   0
RUSSELLVILLE AR   86  60  74  45 /  60  80  10   0
SEARCY AR         86  63  76  47 /  40  90  10   0
STUTTGART AR      89  64  76  47 /  40  80  10   0
&&

.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&

$$


AVIATION...226






000
FXUS64 KLZK 020524 AAA
AFDLZK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
1224 AM CDT THU OCT 2 2014

.UPDATE...

UPDATED TO INCLUDE 06Z AVIATION DISCUSSION.

&&

.AVIATION...

INTERESTING WEATHER CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE 06Z TAF
PERIOD. COULD SEE AN INCREASE IN LOW CLOUDS THIS MORNING AS LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE IS INCREASING RAPIDLY ACROSS THE STATE...WHICH
COULD LEAD TO MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS NEAR DAYBREAK. WILL SEE AN INCREASE IN
SOUTHERLY WINDS TODAY AS WELL...WITH SUSTAINED WINDS AOA 10KTS WITH
GUSTS TO 15KTS. VC SH/TS ACTIVITY WILL BE SEEN TODAY...WITH
DIRECT IMPACTS TO TERMINALS NOT LIKELY AS ACTIVITY WILL BE
ISOLATED/SCATTERED. MAIN IMPACTS TO AREA TERMINALS WILL BEGIN
AFTER 03/00Z AS STRONG COLD FRONT WILL HELP INITIATE A LINE OF
STORMS FROM WEST ARKANSAS EASTWARD THROUGH 03/06Z. LOOK FOR SEVERE
WIND GUSTS AS THE LINE MOVES THROUGH...WITH VERY HEAVY RAIN AND
POSSIBLY SOME HAIL AS WELL.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 844 PM CDT WED OCT 1 2014/

UPDATE...
ALL CONVECTION IS NORTH OF ARKANSAS THIS EVENING. THE COLD FRONT
REMAINS IN CENTRAL KANSAS AND WESTERN OKLAHOMA AND WILL MOVE
THROUGH ARKNASAS THURSDAY. SHOWERS AND MOST CLOUDS HAVE DISSIPATED
OVER THE AREA. THEREFORE...HAVE DECREASED CLOUD COVER AND POPS
OVER THE AREA FOR THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. WILL BRING SLIGHT CHANCES
OF PRECIPITATION INTO THE NORTHWEST AFTER MIDNIGHT. RAIN CHANCES
WILL THEN SPREAD SOUTHEAST.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 254 PM CDT WED OCT 1 2014/

SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT

SCATTERED CONVECTION CONTINUES THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS MAINLY THE
EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE STATE...WITH MUCH OF THE PRECIP EXPECTED TO
DIE OFF THIS EVENING WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING.

AN ACTIVE TIME PERIOD IS ANTICIPATED FOR THURSDAY AND INTO THE
EARLY MORNING HOURS ON FRIDAY AS A STRONG COLD FRONT MOVES INTO
THE REGION. CHANCE FOR MORE HIT AND MISS TYPE SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL ONCE AGAIN BE POSSIBLE EARLY ON THURSDAY AS
ABUNDANT MOISTURE CONTINUES TO STREAM NORTHWARD FROM THE GULF
REGION.

HOWEVER...THE BULK OF THE PRECIPITATION WILL BE ALONG AND AHEAD OF
THE FRONT...STARTING IN THE AFTERNOON TO EARLY EVENING ACROSS THE
NORTHWEST...BEFORE SWEEPING ACROSS THE STATE DURING THE EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT HOURS. WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL OCCUR...
WITH SOME STORMS BECOMING STRONG TO SEVERE. GIVEN THE BROAD UPPER
LEVEL LOW AND ELONGATED SURFACE FEATURE...EXPECT A MORE LINEAR
EVENT...WITH STRONG DAMAGING WINDS POSSIBLE. HOWEVER...SURFACE
WINDS WILL TURN SLIGHTLY BACK TO SOUTHEAST AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM...
LEADING TO POTENTIAL OF SOME ROTATING CELLS AND HAIL DEVELOPMENT
AS MID LEVEL TEMPERATURES COOL.

LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE...WITH UP TO TWO INCHES
IN SOME LOCATIONS.

THE FRONT AND PRECIP WILL QUICKLY EXIT THE STATE FRIDAY MORNING...WITH
GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS USHERING MUCH COOLER AND DRIER CONDITIONS INTO
THE STATE. TEMPERATURES WILL BE BACK AT BELOW NORMAL READINGS FOR
THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEKEND.

LONG TERM...SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY

WITH A BROAD RIDGE OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN CONUS AND THE UPPER TROUGH
LIFTING UP OVER THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES AT THE START OF NEXT
WEEK...THE MIDSOUTH WILL EXPERIENCE DRY CONDITIONS WITH TEMPS
CLIMBING BACK INTO THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S ON SUNDAY. THE UPPER
RIDGE WILL ATTEMPT TO SHIFT EAST ON MONDAY WHILE A TRAILING COLD
FRONT DIPS DOWN ACROSS THE REGION LATE MONDAY. AT LEAST AT THIS
POINT THERE DOESNT APPEAR TO BE ENOUGH MOISTURE TO INTERACT THIS FAR
SOUTH SO DID NOT BUMP POPS HIGHER THAN SLIGHT JUST ACROSS THE
NORTHERN BORDER. WEDNESDAY WILL BE UNSEASONABLY WARM AND
HUMID...WITH HIGHS CLIMBING BACK INTO THE 80S AND LOWS IN THE 60S.
BETTER CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION EXIST LATER IN THE WEEK.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BATESVILLE AR     86  60  73  46 /  50  90  10   0
CAMDEN AR         90  65  78  49 /  40  80  10   0
HARRISON AR       83  55  67  40 /  70  70  10   0
HOT SPRINGS AR    86  62  75  48 /  50  90  10   0
LITTLE ROCK   AR  88  64  76  48 /  50  90  10   0
MONTICELLO AR     90  67  78  50 /  30  70  10   0
MOUNT IDA AR      85  59  73  46 /  60  80  10   0
MOUNTAIN HOME AR  85  57  69  43 /  60  80  10   0
NEWPORT AR        87  62  74  46 /  40  90  10   0
PINE BLUFF AR     90  65  77  49 /  40  80  10   0
RUSSELLVILLE AR   86  60  74  45 /  60  80  10   0
SEARCY AR         86  63  76  47 /  40  90  10   0
STUTTGART AR      89  64  76  47 /  40  80  10   0
&&

.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&

$$


AVIATION...226





000
FXUS64 KLZK 020144
AFDLZK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
844 PM CDT WED OCT 1 2014

.UPDATE...
ALL CONVECTION IS NORTH OF ARKANSAS THIS EVENING. THE COLD FRONT
REMAINS IN CENTRAL KANSAS AND WESTERN OKLAHOMA AND WILL MOVE
THROUGH ARKNASAS THURSDAY. SHOWERS AND MOST CLOUDS HAVE DISSIPATED
OVER THE AREA. THEREFORE...HAVE DECREASED CLOUD COVER AND POPS
OVER THE AREA FOR THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. WILL BRING SLIGHT CHANCES
OF PRECIPITATION INTO THE NORTHWEST AFTER MIDNIGHT. RAIN CHANCES
WILL THEN SPREAD SOUTHEAST.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 648 PM CDT WED OCT 1 2014/

AVIATION...02/00Z TAF CYCLE

AFTN CONVECTION HAS DIMINISHED ACRS THE FA ATTM...WITH SCTD CU
FIELD EXPECTED TO LINGER FOR ANOTHER HOUR OR TWO. VFR CONDS WL
PREVAIL THRU MUCH OF THE PD. THE EXCEPTION WL BE LATE TNGT WHEN
LOW CLOUDS WL DVLP AND ADVECT INTO MUCH OF CNTRL AND SRN AR AND
PRODUCE MVFR CONDS. INCRSD MIXING DURG THE MRNG HRS WL ALLOW FOR
CONDS TO IMPROVE BACK TO VFR LVLS. SCTD SHRA/TSRA WL BE POSSIBLE
THU AFTN ACRS NWRN AR WITH PROB30 GROUPS MENTIONED AND VCTS
INCLUDED ELSEWHERE. BETTER CHCS OF ORGANIZED STORMS WL OCCUR AFT
THIS FCST PD. /44/

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 254 PM CDT WED OCT 1 2014/

SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT

SCATTERED CONVECTION CONTINUES THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS MAINLY THE
EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE STATE...WITH MUCH OF THE PRECIP EXPECTED TO
DIE OFF THIS EVENING WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING.

AN ACTIVE TIME PERIOD IS ANTICIPATED FOR THURSDAY AND INTO THE
EARLY MORNING HOURS ON FRIDAY AS A STRONG COLD FRONT MOVES INTO
THE REGION. CHANCE FOR MORE HIT AND MISS TYPE SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL ONCE AGAIN BE POSSIBLE EARLY ON THURSDAY AS
ABUNDANT MOISTURE CONTINUES TO STREAM NORTHWARD FROM THE GULF
REGION.

HOWEVER...THE BULK OF THE PRECIPITATION WILL BE ALONG AND AHEAD OF
THE FRONT...STARTING IN THE AFTERNOON TO EARLY EVENING ACROSS THE
NORTHWEST...BEFORE SWEEPING ACROSS THE STATE DURING THE EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT HOURS. WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL OCCUR...
WITH SOME STORMS BECOMING STRONG TO SEVERE. GIVEN THE BROAD UPPER
LEVEL LOW AND ELONGATED SURFACE FEATURE...EXPECT A MORE LINEAR
EVENT...WITH STRONG DAMAGING WINDS POSSIBLE. HOWEVER...SURFACE
WINDS WILL TURN SLIGHTLY BACK TO SOUTHEAST AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM...
LEADING TO POTENTIAL OF SOME ROTATING CELLS AND HAIL DEVELOPMENT
AS MID LEVEL TEMPERATURES COOL.

LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE...WITH UP TO TWO INCHES
IN SOME LOCATIONS.

THE FRONT AND PRECIP WILL QUICKLY EXIT THE STATE FRIDAY MORNING...WITH
GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS USHERING MUCH COOLER AND DRIER CONDITIONS INTO
THE STATE. TEMPERATURES WILL BE BACK AT BELOW NORMAL READINGS FOR
THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEKEND.

LONG TERM...SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY

WITH A BROAD RIDGE OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN CONUS AND THE UPPER TROUGH
LIFTING UP OVER THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES AT THE START OF NEXT
WEEK...THE MIDSOUTH WILL EXPERIENCE DRY CONDITIONS WITH TEMPS
CLIMBING BACK INTO THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S ON SUNDAY. THE UPPER
RIDGE WILL ATTEMPT TO SHIFT EAST ON MONDAY WHILE A TRAILING COLD
FRONT DIPS DOWN ACROSS THE REGION LATE MONDAY. AT LEAST AT THIS
POINT THERE DOESNT APPEAR TO BE ENOUGH MOISTURE TO INTERACT THIS FAR
SOUTH SO DID NOT BUMP POPS HIGHER THAN SLIGHT JUST ACROSS THE
NORTHERN BORDER. WEDNESDAY WILL BE UNSEASONABLY WARM AND
HUMID...WITH HIGHS CLIMBING BACK INTO THE 80S AND LOWS IN THE 60S.
BETTER CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION EXIST LATER IN THE WEEK.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BATESVILLE AR     69  86  60  73 /  20  50  90  10
CAMDEN AR         72  90  65  78 /  20  40  80  10
HARRISON AR       69  83  55  67 /  20  70  70  10
HOT SPRINGS AR    71  86  62  75 /  20  50  90  10
LITTLE ROCK   AR  71  88  64  76 /  20  50  90  10
MONTICELLO AR     72  90  67  78 /  20  30  70  10
MOUNT IDA AR      71  85  59  73 /  20  60  80  10
MOUNTAIN HOME AR  69  85  57  69 /  20  60  80  10
NEWPORT AR        69  87  62  74 /  20  40  90  10
PINE BLUFF AR     71  90  65  77 /  20  40  80  10
RUSSELLVILLE AR   71  86  60  74 /  20  60  80  10
SEARCY AR         70  86  63  76 /  20  40  90  10
STUTTGART AR      70  89  64  76 /  20  40  80  10
&&

.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&

$$

51





000
FXUS64 KLZK 012348
AFDLZK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
648 PM CDT WED OCT 1 2014

.AVIATION...02/00Z TAF CYCLE

AFTN CONVECTION HAS DIMINISHED ACRS THE FA ATTM...WITH SCTD CU
FIELD EXPECTED TO LINGER FOR ANOTHER HOUR OR TWO. VFR CONDS WL
PREVAIL THRU MUCH OF THE PD. THE EXCEPTION WL BE LATE TNGT WHEN
LOW CLOUDS WL DVLP AND ADVECT INTO MUCH OF CNTRL AND SRN AR AND
PRODUCE MVFR CONDS. INCRSD MIXING DURG THE MRNG HRS WL ALLOW FOR
CONDS TO IMPROVE BACK TO VFR LVLS. SCTD SHRA/TSRA WL BE POSSIBLE
THU AFTN ACRS NWRN AR WITH PROB30 GROUPS MENTIONED AND VCTS
INCLUDED ELSEWHERE. BETTER CHCS OF ORGANIZED STORMS WL OCCUR AFT
THIS FCST PD. /44/
&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 254 PM CDT WED OCT 1 2014/

SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT

SCATTERED CONVECTION CONTINUES THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS MAINLY THE
EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE STATE...WITH MUCH OF THE PRECIP EXPECTED TO
DIE OFF THIS EVENING WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING.

AN ACTIVE TIME PERIOD IS ANTICIPATED FOR THURSDAY AND INTO THE
EARLY MORNING HOURS ON FRIDAY AS A STRONG COLD FRONT MOVES INTO
THE REGION. CHANCE FOR MORE HIT AND MISS TYPE SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL ONCE AGAIN BE POSSIBLE EARLY ON THURSDAY AS
ABUNDANT MOISTURE CONTINUES TO STREAM NORTHWARD FROM THE GULF
REGION.

HOWEVER...THE BULK OF THE PRECIPITATION WILL BE ALONG AND AHEAD OF
THE FRONT...STARTING IN THE AFTERNOON TO EARLY EVENING ACROSS THE
NORTHWEST...BEFORE SWEEPING ACROSS THE STATE DURING THE EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT HOURS. WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL OCCUR...
WITH SOME STORMS BECOMING STRONG TO SEVERE. GIVEN THE BROAD UPPER
LEVEL LOW AND ELONGATED SURFACE FEATURE...EXPECT A MORE LINEAR
EVENT...WITH STRONG DAMAGING WINDS POSSIBLE. HOWEVER...SURFACE
WINDS WILL TURN SLIGHTLY BACK TO SOUTHEAST AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM...
LEADING TO POTENTIAL OF SOME ROTATING CELLS AND HAIL DEVELOPMENT
AS MID LEVEL TEMPERATURES COOL.

LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE...WITH UP TO TWO INCHES
IN SOME LOCATIONS.

THE FRONT AND PRECIP WILL QUICKLY EXIT THE STATE FRIDAY MORNING...WITH
GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS USHERING MUCH COOLER AND DRIER CONDITIONS INTO
THE STATE. TEMPERATURES WILL BE BACK AT BELOW NORMAL READINGS FOR
THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEKEND.

LONG TERM...SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY

WITH A BROAD RIDGE OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN CONUS AND THE UPPER TROUGH
LIFTING UP OVER THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES AT THE START OF NEXT
WEEK...THE MIDSOUTH WILL EXPERIENCE DRY CONDITIONS WITH TEMPS
CLIMBING BACK INTO THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S ON SUNDAY. THE UPPER
RIDGE WILL ATTEMPT TO SHIFT EAST ON MONDAY WHILE A TRAILING COLD
FRONT DIPS DOWN ACROSS THE REGION LATE MONDAY. AT LEAST AT THIS
POINT THERE DOESNT APPEAR TO BE ENOUGH MOISTURE TO INTERACT THIS FAR
SOUTH SO DID NOT BUMP POPS HIGHER THAN SLIGHT JUST ACROSS THE
NORTHERN BORDER. WEDNESDAY WILL BE UNSEASONABLY WARM AND
HUMID...WITH HIGHS CLIMBING BACK INTO THE 80S AND LOWS IN THE 60S.
BETTER CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION EXIST LATER IN THE WEEK.
&&

.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&

$$






000
FXUS64 KLZK 012348
AFDLZK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
648 PM CDT WED OCT 1 2014

.AVIATION...02/00Z TAF CYCLE

AFTN CONVECTION HAS DIMINISHED ACRS THE FA ATTM...WITH SCTD CU
FIELD EXPECTED TO LINGER FOR ANOTHER HOUR OR TWO. VFR CONDS WL
PREVAIL THRU MUCH OF THE PD. THE EXCEPTION WL BE LATE TNGT WHEN
LOW CLOUDS WL DVLP AND ADVECT INTO MUCH OF CNTRL AND SRN AR AND
PRODUCE MVFR CONDS. INCRSD MIXING DURG THE MRNG HRS WL ALLOW FOR
CONDS TO IMPROVE BACK TO VFR LVLS. SCTD SHRA/TSRA WL BE POSSIBLE
THU AFTN ACRS NWRN AR WITH PROB30 GROUPS MENTIONED AND VCTS
INCLUDED ELSEWHERE. BETTER CHCS OF ORGANIZED STORMS WL OCCUR AFT
THIS FCST PD. /44/
&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 254 PM CDT WED OCT 1 2014/

SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT

SCATTERED CONVECTION CONTINUES THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS MAINLY THE
EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE STATE...WITH MUCH OF THE PRECIP EXPECTED TO
DIE OFF THIS EVENING WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING.

AN ACTIVE TIME PERIOD IS ANTICIPATED FOR THURSDAY AND INTO THE
EARLY MORNING HOURS ON FRIDAY AS A STRONG COLD FRONT MOVES INTO
THE REGION. CHANCE FOR MORE HIT AND MISS TYPE SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL ONCE AGAIN BE POSSIBLE EARLY ON THURSDAY AS
ABUNDANT MOISTURE CONTINUES TO STREAM NORTHWARD FROM THE GULF
REGION.

HOWEVER...THE BULK OF THE PRECIPITATION WILL BE ALONG AND AHEAD OF
THE FRONT...STARTING IN THE AFTERNOON TO EARLY EVENING ACROSS THE
NORTHWEST...BEFORE SWEEPING ACROSS THE STATE DURING THE EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT HOURS. WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL OCCUR...
WITH SOME STORMS BECOMING STRONG TO SEVERE. GIVEN THE BROAD UPPER
LEVEL LOW AND ELONGATED SURFACE FEATURE...EXPECT A MORE LINEAR
EVENT...WITH STRONG DAMAGING WINDS POSSIBLE. HOWEVER...SURFACE
WINDS WILL TURN SLIGHTLY BACK TO SOUTHEAST AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM...
LEADING TO POTENTIAL OF SOME ROTATING CELLS AND HAIL DEVELOPMENT
AS MID LEVEL TEMPERATURES COOL.

LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE...WITH UP TO TWO INCHES
IN SOME LOCATIONS.

THE FRONT AND PRECIP WILL QUICKLY EXIT THE STATE FRIDAY MORNING...WITH
GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS USHERING MUCH COOLER AND DRIER CONDITIONS INTO
THE STATE. TEMPERATURES WILL BE BACK AT BELOW NORMAL READINGS FOR
THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEKEND.

LONG TERM...SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY

WITH A BROAD RIDGE OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN CONUS AND THE UPPER TROUGH
LIFTING UP OVER THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES AT THE START OF NEXT
WEEK...THE MIDSOUTH WILL EXPERIENCE DRY CONDITIONS WITH TEMPS
CLIMBING BACK INTO THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S ON SUNDAY. THE UPPER
RIDGE WILL ATTEMPT TO SHIFT EAST ON MONDAY WHILE A TRAILING COLD
FRONT DIPS DOWN ACROSS THE REGION LATE MONDAY. AT LEAST AT THIS
POINT THERE DOESNT APPEAR TO BE ENOUGH MOISTURE TO INTERACT THIS FAR
SOUTH SO DID NOT BUMP POPS HIGHER THAN SLIGHT JUST ACROSS THE
NORTHERN BORDER. WEDNESDAY WILL BE UNSEASONABLY WARM AND
HUMID...WITH HIGHS CLIMBING BACK INTO THE 80S AND LOWS IN THE 60S.
BETTER CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION EXIST LATER IN THE WEEK.
&&

.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&

$$






000
FXUS64 KLZK 012348
AFDLZK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
648 PM CDT WED OCT 1 2014

.AVIATION...02/00Z TAF CYCLE

AFTN CONVECTION HAS DIMINISHED ACRS THE FA ATTM...WITH SCTD CU
FIELD EXPECTED TO LINGER FOR ANOTHER HOUR OR TWO. VFR CONDS WL
PREVAIL THRU MUCH OF THE PD. THE EXCEPTION WL BE LATE TNGT WHEN
LOW CLOUDS WL DVLP AND ADVECT INTO MUCH OF CNTRL AND SRN AR AND
PRODUCE MVFR CONDS. INCRSD MIXING DURG THE MRNG HRS WL ALLOW FOR
CONDS TO IMPROVE BACK TO VFR LVLS. SCTD SHRA/TSRA WL BE POSSIBLE
THU AFTN ACRS NWRN AR WITH PROB30 GROUPS MENTIONED AND VCTS
INCLUDED ELSEWHERE. BETTER CHCS OF ORGANIZED STORMS WL OCCUR AFT
THIS FCST PD. /44/
&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 254 PM CDT WED OCT 1 2014/

SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT

SCATTERED CONVECTION CONTINUES THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS MAINLY THE
EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE STATE...WITH MUCH OF THE PRECIP EXPECTED TO
DIE OFF THIS EVENING WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING.

AN ACTIVE TIME PERIOD IS ANTICIPATED FOR THURSDAY AND INTO THE
EARLY MORNING HOURS ON FRIDAY AS A STRONG COLD FRONT MOVES INTO
THE REGION. CHANCE FOR MORE HIT AND MISS TYPE SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL ONCE AGAIN BE POSSIBLE EARLY ON THURSDAY AS
ABUNDANT MOISTURE CONTINUES TO STREAM NORTHWARD FROM THE GULF
REGION.

HOWEVER...THE BULK OF THE PRECIPITATION WILL BE ALONG AND AHEAD OF
THE FRONT...STARTING IN THE AFTERNOON TO EARLY EVENING ACROSS THE
NORTHWEST...BEFORE SWEEPING ACROSS THE STATE DURING THE EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT HOURS. WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL OCCUR...
WITH SOME STORMS BECOMING STRONG TO SEVERE. GIVEN THE BROAD UPPER
LEVEL LOW AND ELONGATED SURFACE FEATURE...EXPECT A MORE LINEAR
EVENT...WITH STRONG DAMAGING WINDS POSSIBLE. HOWEVER...SURFACE
WINDS WILL TURN SLIGHTLY BACK TO SOUTHEAST AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM...
LEADING TO POTENTIAL OF SOME ROTATING CELLS AND HAIL DEVELOPMENT
AS MID LEVEL TEMPERATURES COOL.

LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE...WITH UP TO TWO INCHES
IN SOME LOCATIONS.

THE FRONT AND PRECIP WILL QUICKLY EXIT THE STATE FRIDAY MORNING...WITH
GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS USHERING MUCH COOLER AND DRIER CONDITIONS INTO
THE STATE. TEMPERATURES WILL BE BACK AT BELOW NORMAL READINGS FOR
THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEKEND.

LONG TERM...SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY

WITH A BROAD RIDGE OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN CONUS AND THE UPPER TROUGH
LIFTING UP OVER THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES AT THE START OF NEXT
WEEK...THE MIDSOUTH WILL EXPERIENCE DRY CONDITIONS WITH TEMPS
CLIMBING BACK INTO THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S ON SUNDAY. THE UPPER
RIDGE WILL ATTEMPT TO SHIFT EAST ON MONDAY WHILE A TRAILING COLD
FRONT DIPS DOWN ACROSS THE REGION LATE MONDAY. AT LEAST AT THIS
POINT THERE DOESNT APPEAR TO BE ENOUGH MOISTURE TO INTERACT THIS FAR
SOUTH SO DID NOT BUMP POPS HIGHER THAN SLIGHT JUST ACROSS THE
NORTHERN BORDER. WEDNESDAY WILL BE UNSEASONABLY WARM AND
HUMID...WITH HIGHS CLIMBING BACK INTO THE 80S AND LOWS IN THE 60S.
BETTER CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION EXIST LATER IN THE WEEK.
&&

.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&

$$






000
FXUS64 KLZK 012348
AFDLZK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
648 PM CDT WED OCT 1 2014

.AVIATION...02/00Z TAF CYCLE

AFTN CONVECTION HAS DIMINISHED ACRS THE FA ATTM...WITH SCTD CU
FIELD EXPECTED TO LINGER FOR ANOTHER HOUR OR TWO. VFR CONDS WL
PREVAIL THRU MUCH OF THE PD. THE EXCEPTION WL BE LATE TNGT WHEN
LOW CLOUDS WL DVLP AND ADVECT INTO MUCH OF CNTRL AND SRN AR AND
PRODUCE MVFR CONDS. INCRSD MIXING DURG THE MRNG HRS WL ALLOW FOR
CONDS TO IMPROVE BACK TO VFR LVLS. SCTD SHRA/TSRA WL BE POSSIBLE
THU AFTN ACRS NWRN AR WITH PROB30 GROUPS MENTIONED AND VCTS
INCLUDED ELSEWHERE. BETTER CHCS OF ORGANIZED STORMS WL OCCUR AFT
THIS FCST PD. /44/
&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 254 PM CDT WED OCT 1 2014/

SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT

SCATTERED CONVECTION CONTINUES THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS MAINLY THE
EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE STATE...WITH MUCH OF THE PRECIP EXPECTED TO
DIE OFF THIS EVENING WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING.

AN ACTIVE TIME PERIOD IS ANTICIPATED FOR THURSDAY AND INTO THE
EARLY MORNING HOURS ON FRIDAY AS A STRONG COLD FRONT MOVES INTO
THE REGION. CHANCE FOR MORE HIT AND MISS TYPE SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL ONCE AGAIN BE POSSIBLE EARLY ON THURSDAY AS
ABUNDANT MOISTURE CONTINUES TO STREAM NORTHWARD FROM THE GULF
REGION.

HOWEVER...THE BULK OF THE PRECIPITATION WILL BE ALONG AND AHEAD OF
THE FRONT...STARTING IN THE AFTERNOON TO EARLY EVENING ACROSS THE
NORTHWEST...BEFORE SWEEPING ACROSS THE STATE DURING THE EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT HOURS. WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL OCCUR...
WITH SOME STORMS BECOMING STRONG TO SEVERE. GIVEN THE BROAD UPPER
LEVEL LOW AND ELONGATED SURFACE FEATURE...EXPECT A MORE LINEAR
EVENT...WITH STRONG DAMAGING WINDS POSSIBLE. HOWEVER...SURFACE
WINDS WILL TURN SLIGHTLY BACK TO SOUTHEAST AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM...
LEADING TO POTENTIAL OF SOME ROTATING CELLS AND HAIL DEVELOPMENT
AS MID LEVEL TEMPERATURES COOL.

LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE...WITH UP TO TWO INCHES
IN SOME LOCATIONS.

THE FRONT AND PRECIP WILL QUICKLY EXIT THE STATE FRIDAY MORNING...WITH
GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS USHERING MUCH COOLER AND DRIER CONDITIONS INTO
THE STATE. TEMPERATURES WILL BE BACK AT BELOW NORMAL READINGS FOR
THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEKEND.

LONG TERM...SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY

WITH A BROAD RIDGE OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN CONUS AND THE UPPER TROUGH
LIFTING UP OVER THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES AT THE START OF NEXT
WEEK...THE MIDSOUTH WILL EXPERIENCE DRY CONDITIONS WITH TEMPS
CLIMBING BACK INTO THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S ON SUNDAY. THE UPPER
RIDGE WILL ATTEMPT TO SHIFT EAST ON MONDAY WHILE A TRAILING COLD
FRONT DIPS DOWN ACROSS THE REGION LATE MONDAY. AT LEAST AT THIS
POINT THERE DOESNT APPEAR TO BE ENOUGH MOISTURE TO INTERACT THIS FAR
SOUTH SO DID NOT BUMP POPS HIGHER THAN SLIGHT JUST ACROSS THE
NORTHERN BORDER. WEDNESDAY WILL BE UNSEASONABLY WARM AND
HUMID...WITH HIGHS CLIMBING BACK INTO THE 80S AND LOWS IN THE 60S.
BETTER CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION EXIST LATER IN THE WEEK.
&&

.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&

$$






000
FXUS64 KLZK 011954
AFDLZK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
254 PM CDT WED OCT 1 2014

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT

SCATTERED CONVECTION CONTINUES THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS MAINLY THE
EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE STATE...WITH MUCH OF THE PRECIP EXPECTED TO
DIE OFF THIS EVENING WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING.

AN ACTIVE TIME PERIOD IS ANTICIPATED FOR THURSDAY AND INTO THE
EARLY MORNING HOURS ON FRIDAY AS A STRONG COLD FRONT MOVES INTO
THE REGION. CHANCE FOR MORE HIT AND MISS TYPE SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL ONCE AGAIN BE POSSIBLE EARLY ON THURSDAY AS
ABUNDANT MOISTURE CONTINUES TO STREAM NORTHWARD FROM THE GULF
REGION.

HOWEVER...THE BULK OF THE PRECIPITATION WILL BE ALONG AND AHEAD OF
THE FRONT...STARTING IN THE AFTERNOON TO EARLY EVENING ACROSS THE
NORTHWEST...BEFORE SWEEPING ACROSS THE STATE DURING THE EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT HOURS. WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL
OCCUR...WITH SOME STORMS BECOMING STRONG TO SEVERE. GIVEN THE BROAD
UPPER LEVEL LOW AND ELONGATED SURFACE FEATURE...EXPECT A MORE
LINEAR EVENT...WITH STRONG DAMAGING WINDS POSSIBLE. HOWEVER...SURFACE
WINDS WILL TURN SLIGHTLY BACK TO SOUTHEAST AHEAD OF THE
SYSTEM...LEADING TO POTENTIAL OF SOME ROTATING CELLS AND HAIL
DEVELOPMENT AS MID LEVEL TEMPERATURES COOL.

LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE...WITH UP TO TWO
INCHES IN SOME LOCATIONS.

THE FRONT AND PRECIP WILL QUICKLY EXIT THE STATE FRIDAY MORNING...WITH
GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS USHERING MUCH COOLER AND DRIER CONDITIONS INTO
THE STATE. TEMPERATURES WILL BE BACK AT BELOW NORMAL READINGS FOR
THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEKEND.
&&

.LONG TERM...SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY

WITH A BROAD RIDGE OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN CONUS AND THE UPPER TROUGH
LIFTING UP OVER THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES AT THE START OF NEXT
WEEK...THE MIDSOUTH WILL EXPERIENCE DRY CONDITIONS WITH TEMPS
CLIMBING BACK INTO THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S ON SUNDAY. THE UPPER
RIDGE WILL ATTEMPT TO SHIFT EAST ON MONDAY WHILE A TRAILING COLD
FRONT DIPS DOWN ACROSS THE REGION LATE MONDAY. AT LEAST AT THIS
POINT THERE DOESNT APPEAR TO BE ENOUGH MOISTURE TO INTERACT THIS FAR
SOUTH SO DID NOT BUMP POPS HIGHER THAN SLIGHT JUST ACROSS THE
NORTHERN BORDER. WEDNESDAY WILL BE UNSEASONABLY WARM AND
HUMID...WITH HIGHS CLIMBING BACK INTO THE 80S AND LOWS IN THE 60S.
BETTER CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION EXIST LATER IN THE WEEK.
&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BATESVILLE AR     69  86  60  73 /  10  50  90  10
CAMDEN AR         73  90  65  78 /  20  40  80  10
HARRISON AR       68  83  55  67 /  20  70  70  10
HOT SPRINGS AR    72  86  62  75 /  20  50  90  10
LITTLE ROCK   AR  72  88  64  76 /  20  50  90  10
MONTICELLO AR     72  90  67  78 /  20  30  70  10
MOUNT IDA AR      71  85  59  73 /  20  60  80  10
MOUNTAIN HOME AR  69  85  57  69 /  20  60  80  10
NEWPORT AR        69  87  62  74 /  10  40  90  10
PINE BLUFF AR     71  90  65  77 /  20  40  80  10
RUSSELLVILLE AR   71  86  60  74 /  20  60  80  10
SEARCY AR         69  86  63  76 /  20  40  90  10
STUTTGART AR      70  89  64  76 /  20  40  80  10
&&

.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...224 / LONG TERM...61






000
FXUS64 KLZK 011954
AFDLZK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
254 PM CDT WED OCT 1 2014

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT

SCATTERED CONVECTION CONTINUES THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS MAINLY THE
EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE STATE...WITH MUCH OF THE PRECIP EXPECTED TO
DIE OFF THIS EVENING WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING.

AN ACTIVE TIME PERIOD IS ANTICIPATED FOR THURSDAY AND INTO THE
EARLY MORNING HOURS ON FRIDAY AS A STRONG COLD FRONT MOVES INTO
THE REGION. CHANCE FOR MORE HIT AND MISS TYPE SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL ONCE AGAIN BE POSSIBLE EARLY ON THURSDAY AS
ABUNDANT MOISTURE CONTINUES TO STREAM NORTHWARD FROM THE GULF
REGION.

HOWEVER...THE BULK OF THE PRECIPITATION WILL BE ALONG AND AHEAD OF
THE FRONT...STARTING IN THE AFTERNOON TO EARLY EVENING ACROSS THE
NORTHWEST...BEFORE SWEEPING ACROSS THE STATE DURING THE EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT HOURS. WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL
OCCUR...WITH SOME STORMS BECOMING STRONG TO SEVERE. GIVEN THE BROAD
UPPER LEVEL LOW AND ELONGATED SURFACE FEATURE...EXPECT A MORE
LINEAR EVENT...WITH STRONG DAMAGING WINDS POSSIBLE. HOWEVER...SURFACE
WINDS WILL TURN SLIGHTLY BACK TO SOUTHEAST AHEAD OF THE
SYSTEM...LEADING TO POTENTIAL OF SOME ROTATING CELLS AND HAIL
DEVELOPMENT AS MID LEVEL TEMPERATURES COOL.

LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE...WITH UP TO TWO
INCHES IN SOME LOCATIONS.

THE FRONT AND PRECIP WILL QUICKLY EXIT THE STATE FRIDAY MORNING...WITH
GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS USHERING MUCH COOLER AND DRIER CONDITIONS INTO
THE STATE. TEMPERATURES WILL BE BACK AT BELOW NORMAL READINGS FOR
THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEKEND.
&&

.LONG TERM...SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY

WITH A BROAD RIDGE OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN CONUS AND THE UPPER TROUGH
LIFTING UP OVER THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES AT THE START OF NEXT
WEEK...THE MIDSOUTH WILL EXPERIENCE DRY CONDITIONS WITH TEMPS
CLIMBING BACK INTO THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S ON SUNDAY. THE UPPER
RIDGE WILL ATTEMPT TO SHIFT EAST ON MONDAY WHILE A TRAILING COLD
FRONT DIPS DOWN ACROSS THE REGION LATE MONDAY. AT LEAST AT THIS
POINT THERE DOESNT APPEAR TO BE ENOUGH MOISTURE TO INTERACT THIS FAR
SOUTH SO DID NOT BUMP POPS HIGHER THAN SLIGHT JUST ACROSS THE
NORTHERN BORDER. WEDNESDAY WILL BE UNSEASONABLY WARM AND
HUMID...WITH HIGHS CLIMBING BACK INTO THE 80S AND LOWS IN THE 60S.
BETTER CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION EXIST LATER IN THE WEEK.
&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BATESVILLE AR     69  86  60  73 /  10  50  90  10
CAMDEN AR         73  90  65  78 /  20  40  80  10
HARRISON AR       68  83  55  67 /  20  70  70  10
HOT SPRINGS AR    72  86  62  75 /  20  50  90  10
LITTLE ROCK   AR  72  88  64  76 /  20  50  90  10
MONTICELLO AR     72  90  67  78 /  20  30  70  10
MOUNT IDA AR      71  85  59  73 /  20  60  80  10
MOUNTAIN HOME AR  69  85  57  69 /  20  60  80  10
NEWPORT AR        69  87  62  74 /  10  40  90  10
PINE BLUFF AR     71  90  65  77 /  20  40  80  10
RUSSELLVILLE AR   71  86  60  74 /  20  60  80  10
SEARCY AR         69  86  63  76 /  20  40  90  10
STUTTGART AR      70  89  64  76 /  20  40  80  10
&&

.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...224 / LONG TERM...61






000
FXUS64 KLZK 011954
AFDLZK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
254 PM CDT WED OCT 1 2014

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT

SCATTERED CONVECTION CONTINUES THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS MAINLY THE
EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE STATE...WITH MUCH OF THE PRECIP EXPECTED TO
DIE OFF THIS EVENING WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING.

AN ACTIVE TIME PERIOD IS ANTICIPATED FOR THURSDAY AND INTO THE
EARLY MORNING HOURS ON FRIDAY AS A STRONG COLD FRONT MOVES INTO
THE REGION. CHANCE FOR MORE HIT AND MISS TYPE SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL ONCE AGAIN BE POSSIBLE EARLY ON THURSDAY AS
ABUNDANT MOISTURE CONTINUES TO STREAM NORTHWARD FROM THE GULF
REGION.

HOWEVER...THE BULK OF THE PRECIPITATION WILL BE ALONG AND AHEAD OF
THE FRONT...STARTING IN THE AFTERNOON TO EARLY EVENING ACROSS THE
NORTHWEST...BEFORE SWEEPING ACROSS THE STATE DURING THE EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT HOURS. WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL
OCCUR...WITH SOME STORMS BECOMING STRONG TO SEVERE. GIVEN THE BROAD
UPPER LEVEL LOW AND ELONGATED SURFACE FEATURE...EXPECT A MORE
LINEAR EVENT...WITH STRONG DAMAGING WINDS POSSIBLE. HOWEVER...SURFACE
WINDS WILL TURN SLIGHTLY BACK TO SOUTHEAST AHEAD OF THE
SYSTEM...LEADING TO POTENTIAL OF SOME ROTATING CELLS AND HAIL
DEVELOPMENT AS MID LEVEL TEMPERATURES COOL.

LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE...WITH UP TO TWO
INCHES IN SOME LOCATIONS.

THE FRONT AND PRECIP WILL QUICKLY EXIT THE STATE FRIDAY MORNING...WITH
GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS USHERING MUCH COOLER AND DRIER CONDITIONS INTO
THE STATE. TEMPERATURES WILL BE BACK AT BELOW NORMAL READINGS FOR
THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEKEND.
&&

.LONG TERM...SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY

WITH A BROAD RIDGE OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN CONUS AND THE UPPER TROUGH
LIFTING UP OVER THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES AT THE START OF NEXT
WEEK...THE MIDSOUTH WILL EXPERIENCE DRY CONDITIONS WITH TEMPS
CLIMBING BACK INTO THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S ON SUNDAY. THE UPPER
RIDGE WILL ATTEMPT TO SHIFT EAST ON MONDAY WHILE A TRAILING COLD
FRONT DIPS DOWN ACROSS THE REGION LATE MONDAY. AT LEAST AT THIS
POINT THERE DOESNT APPEAR TO BE ENOUGH MOISTURE TO INTERACT THIS FAR
SOUTH SO DID NOT BUMP POPS HIGHER THAN SLIGHT JUST ACROSS THE
NORTHERN BORDER. WEDNESDAY WILL BE UNSEASONABLY WARM AND
HUMID...WITH HIGHS CLIMBING BACK INTO THE 80S AND LOWS IN THE 60S.
BETTER CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION EXIST LATER IN THE WEEK.
&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BATESVILLE AR     69  86  60  73 /  10  50  90  10
CAMDEN AR         73  90  65  78 /  20  40  80  10
HARRISON AR       68  83  55  67 /  20  70  70  10
HOT SPRINGS AR    72  86  62  75 /  20  50  90  10
LITTLE ROCK   AR  72  88  64  76 /  20  50  90  10
MONTICELLO AR     72  90  67  78 /  20  30  70  10
MOUNT IDA AR      71  85  59  73 /  20  60  80  10
MOUNTAIN HOME AR  69  85  57  69 /  20  60  80  10
NEWPORT AR        69  87  62  74 /  10  40  90  10
PINE BLUFF AR     71  90  65  77 /  20  40  80  10
RUSSELLVILLE AR   71  86  60  74 /  20  60  80  10
SEARCY AR         69  86  63  76 /  20  40  90  10
STUTTGART AR      70  89  64  76 /  20  40  80  10
&&

.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...224 / LONG TERM...61






000
FXUS64 KLZK 011954
AFDLZK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
254 PM CDT WED OCT 1 2014

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT

SCATTERED CONVECTION CONTINUES THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS MAINLY THE
EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE STATE...WITH MUCH OF THE PRECIP EXPECTED TO
DIE OFF THIS EVENING WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING.

AN ACTIVE TIME PERIOD IS ANTICIPATED FOR THURSDAY AND INTO THE
EARLY MORNING HOURS ON FRIDAY AS A STRONG COLD FRONT MOVES INTO
THE REGION. CHANCE FOR MORE HIT AND MISS TYPE SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL ONCE AGAIN BE POSSIBLE EARLY ON THURSDAY AS
ABUNDANT MOISTURE CONTINUES TO STREAM NORTHWARD FROM THE GULF
REGION.

HOWEVER...THE BULK OF THE PRECIPITATION WILL BE ALONG AND AHEAD OF
THE FRONT...STARTING IN THE AFTERNOON TO EARLY EVENING ACROSS THE
NORTHWEST...BEFORE SWEEPING ACROSS THE STATE DURING THE EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT HOURS. WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL
OCCUR...WITH SOME STORMS BECOMING STRONG TO SEVERE. GIVEN THE BROAD
UPPER LEVEL LOW AND ELONGATED SURFACE FEATURE...EXPECT A MORE
LINEAR EVENT...WITH STRONG DAMAGING WINDS POSSIBLE. HOWEVER...SURFACE
WINDS WILL TURN SLIGHTLY BACK TO SOUTHEAST AHEAD OF THE
SYSTEM...LEADING TO POTENTIAL OF SOME ROTATING CELLS AND HAIL
DEVELOPMENT AS MID LEVEL TEMPERATURES COOL.

LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE...WITH UP TO TWO
INCHES IN SOME LOCATIONS.

THE FRONT AND PRECIP WILL QUICKLY EXIT THE STATE FRIDAY MORNING...WITH
GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS USHERING MUCH COOLER AND DRIER CONDITIONS INTO
THE STATE. TEMPERATURES WILL BE BACK AT BELOW NORMAL READINGS FOR
THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEKEND.
&&

.LONG TERM...SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY

WITH A BROAD RIDGE OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN CONUS AND THE UPPER TROUGH
LIFTING UP OVER THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES AT THE START OF NEXT
WEEK...THE MIDSOUTH WILL EXPERIENCE DRY CONDITIONS WITH TEMPS
CLIMBING BACK INTO THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S ON SUNDAY. THE UPPER
RIDGE WILL ATTEMPT TO SHIFT EAST ON MONDAY WHILE A TRAILING COLD
FRONT DIPS DOWN ACROSS THE REGION LATE MONDAY. AT LEAST AT THIS
POINT THERE DOESNT APPEAR TO BE ENOUGH MOISTURE TO INTERACT THIS FAR
SOUTH SO DID NOT BUMP POPS HIGHER THAN SLIGHT JUST ACROSS THE
NORTHERN BORDER. WEDNESDAY WILL BE UNSEASONABLY WARM AND
HUMID...WITH HIGHS CLIMBING BACK INTO THE 80S AND LOWS IN THE 60S.
BETTER CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION EXIST LATER IN THE WEEK.
&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BATESVILLE AR     69  86  60  73 /  10  50  90  10
CAMDEN AR         73  90  65  78 /  20  40  80  10
HARRISON AR       68  83  55  67 /  20  70  70  10
HOT SPRINGS AR    72  86  62  75 /  20  50  90  10
LITTLE ROCK   AR  72  88  64  76 /  20  50  90  10
MONTICELLO AR     72  90  67  78 /  20  30  70  10
MOUNT IDA AR      71  85  59  73 /  20  60  80  10
MOUNTAIN HOME AR  69  85  57  69 /  20  60  80  10
NEWPORT AR        69  87  62  74 /  10  40  90  10
PINE BLUFF AR     71  90  65  77 /  20  40  80  10
RUSSELLVILLE AR   71  86  60  74 /  20  60  80  10
SEARCY AR         69  86  63  76 /  20  40  90  10
STUTTGART AR      70  89  64  76 /  20  40  80  10
&&

.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...224 / LONG TERM...61






000
FXUS64 KLZK 011807
AFDLZK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
107 PM CDT WED OCT 1 2014

.AVIATION...
LIGHT SCATTERED CONVECTION WILL REMAIN MOSTLY IN THE SOUTH AND
EAST THIS AFTERNOON. MVFR AND POSSIBLE IFR CONDITIONS WILL BECOME
MORE PROMINENT AFTER 06Z AS FRONT DRAWS CLOSER TO THE FA...ADDED
PROB30 BEGINNING AFTER 14Z AT NORTHERN TAF SITES...WITH BETTER
CHANCES AFTER THIS TAF PERIOD. PATCHY FOG WILL ALSO BE LIKELY TO
DEVELOP OVERNIGHT ACROSS REMAINING TERMINALS.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1108 AM CDT WED OCT 1 2014/

UPDATE...

ISOLATED SHOWERS CONTINUE SPORADICALLY ACROSS THE AREA LATE THIS
MORNING AS MOIST AIR CONTINUES TO LIFT NORTHWARD ACROSS THE
REGION. EXPECT THIS TREND OF HIT AND MISS PRECIP THOUGH THE
AFTERNOON...WITH SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ONGOING. BEST CHANCES WILL
LIKELY BE ACROSS THE SOUTH AND EAST...WITH PRECIP SPREADING UP
FROM LOUISIANA. MUCH OF THIS WILL BE DIURNALLY DRIVEN...WITH
PRECIP CHANCES DECREASING AFTER SUNSET. HOWEVER...DO EXPECT MOST
LOCATIONS TODAY TO REMAIN DRY. OTHERWISE...EXPECT A WARM AND HUMID
DAY...WITH TEMPS RUNNING WELL ABOVE NORMAL.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 620 AM CDT WED OCT 1 2014/

UPDATE...

UPDATED TO INCLUDE 12Z AVIATION DISCUSSION.

AVIATION...

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO PERSIST FOR MUCH OF THE TAF PERIOD.
EXPECT QUITE A FEW CLOUDS TODAY...SOME CU AT 5KFT AS WELL AS MID
AND HIGH CLOUDS OVER THAT. SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL BE IN PLACE
TODAY...STAYING JUST BELOW 10 KTS THROUGH THE DAY. SOME ISOLATED
SH/TS ACTIVITY WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON
TODAY...MOVEMENT WILL BE TO THE NORTHEAST. MOSTLY DRY OVERNIGHT...WITH LOW
CLOUDS DEVELOPING NEAR SUNRISE...LIKELY LEADING TO MVFR
CONDITIONS.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 510 AM CDT WED OCT 1 2014/

SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT
DEWPOINTS IN THE UPPER 60S/LOWER 70S WERE BEGINNING TO SURGE INTO
ARKANSAS FROM THE GULF COAST. THIS WAS RESULTING IN A FEW SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS IN SOUTHWEST SECTIONS OF THE STATE. AS THE DAY
PROGRESSES... MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE BUILDING INTO THE
REGION...WITH ISOLATED TO SCATTERED PRECIPITATION IN THE FORECAST.

GIVEN THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING THIS EVENING...ANY RAIN WILL
TEND TO DISSIPATE. MORE HIT AND MISS PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO
POP UP ON THURSDAY.

IT WILL BE WARM THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...WITH ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES IN THE FORECAST. THAT WILL CHANGE IN A HURRY.

A COLD FRONT WILL ARRIVE FROM THE PLAINS THURSDAY EVENING...AND
WILL SWEEP ACROSS THE AREA. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BECOME
LIKELY...WITH SOME SEVERE WEATHER POSSIBLE. THE MAIN CONCERN WILL
BE STRONG TO DAMAGING WINDS. AT THIS POINT...IT APPEARS RAINFALL
WILL AVERAGE THREE QUARTERS OF AN INCH TO AN INCH AND A HALF.
LOCALLY MORE THAN TWO INCHES IS POSSIBLE.

THE FRONT WILL BE PRECEDED BY BREEZY SOUTHWEST WINDS...WITH WINDS
SHIFTING TO THE WEST/NORTHWEST THURSDAY NIGHT. BREEZY NORTHWEST
WINDS WILL CONTINUE ON FRIDAY...AND IT WILL BE QUITE A BIT
COOLER. RAPID CLEARING WILL TAKE PLACE FROM THE WEST.

THE PERIOD WILL FINISH WITH DRY CONDITIONS AND BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES TO START THE WEEKEND.

LONG TERM...SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY
FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT BETWEEN FORECAST MODEL SOLUTIONS TO START THE
LONG TERM PERIOD AS THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH SHIFTS EAST OF THE AREA ON
SUNDAY. THE EFFECTS OF THE TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO BE SEEN THROUGH
THE LONG TERM AS NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT REMAINS IN PLACE AS THE UPPER
LOW PERSISTS ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN PORTIONS OF CANADA.

HAVE LEFT THE LONG TERM PERIOD DRY ATTM...THOUGH THERE IS SOME
INDICATION THAT A FEW LOBES OF ENERGY COULD PINWHEEL AROUND THE
UPPER TROUGH AND COULD BRING SOME LIGHT RAIN ACROSS THE STATE AT ONE
TIME OR ANOTHER. BUT...CONFIDENCE ON TIMING/DEVELOPMENT OF THESE
FEATURES IS NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO JUSTIFY POPS ATTM. TEMPS THROUGH THE
LONG TERM LOOK TO BE NEAR SEASONAL NORMS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BATESVILLE AR     89  68  86  61 /  20  20  40  80
CAMDEN AR         90  71  89  65 /  30  10  40  70
HARRISON AR       86  68  82  55 /  20  20  60  70
HOT SPRINGS AR    88  70  85  61 /  20  20  50  80
LITTLE ROCK   AR  90  69  87  63 /  20  20  40  80
MONTICELLO AR     90  70  89  66 /  30  20  30  80
MOUNT IDA AR      88  69  83  59 /  20  20  60  80
MOUNTAIN HOME AR  88  67  85  58 /  20  20  60  80
NEWPORT AR        89  67  87  62 /  20  20  40  80
PINE BLUFF AR     90  69  88  64 /  20  20  30  70
RUSSELLVILLE AR   89  69  85  60 /  20  20  60  80
SEARCY AR         90  68  86  62 /  20  20  40  80
STUTTGART AR      89  68  87  63 /  20  20  30  80
&&

.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&

$$


AVIATION...61





000
FXUS64 KLZK 011807
AFDLZK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
107 PM CDT WED OCT 1 2014

.AVIATION...
LIGHT SCATTERED CONVECTION WILL REMAIN MOSTLY IN THE SOUTH AND
EAST THIS AFTERNOON. MVFR AND POSSIBLE IFR CONDITIONS WILL BECOME
MORE PROMINENT AFTER 06Z AS FRONT DRAWS CLOSER TO THE FA...ADDED
PROB30 BEGINNING AFTER 14Z AT NORTHERN TAF SITES...WITH BETTER
CHANCES AFTER THIS TAF PERIOD. PATCHY FOG WILL ALSO BE LIKELY TO
DEVELOP OVERNIGHT ACROSS REMAINING TERMINALS.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1108 AM CDT WED OCT 1 2014/

UPDATE...

ISOLATED SHOWERS CONTINUE SPORADICALLY ACROSS THE AREA LATE THIS
MORNING AS MOIST AIR CONTINUES TO LIFT NORTHWARD ACROSS THE
REGION. EXPECT THIS TREND OF HIT AND MISS PRECIP THOUGH THE
AFTERNOON...WITH SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ONGOING. BEST CHANCES WILL
LIKELY BE ACROSS THE SOUTH AND EAST...WITH PRECIP SPREADING UP
FROM LOUISIANA. MUCH OF THIS WILL BE DIURNALLY DRIVEN...WITH
PRECIP CHANCES DECREASING AFTER SUNSET. HOWEVER...DO EXPECT MOST
LOCATIONS TODAY TO REMAIN DRY. OTHERWISE...EXPECT A WARM AND HUMID
DAY...WITH TEMPS RUNNING WELL ABOVE NORMAL.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 620 AM CDT WED OCT 1 2014/

UPDATE...

UPDATED TO INCLUDE 12Z AVIATION DISCUSSION.

AVIATION...

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO PERSIST FOR MUCH OF THE TAF PERIOD.
EXPECT QUITE A FEW CLOUDS TODAY...SOME CU AT 5KFT AS WELL AS MID
AND HIGH CLOUDS OVER THAT. SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL BE IN PLACE
TODAY...STAYING JUST BELOW 10 KTS THROUGH THE DAY. SOME ISOLATED
SH/TS ACTIVITY WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON
TODAY...MOVEMENT WILL BE TO THE NORTHEAST. MOSTLY DRY OVERNIGHT...WITH LOW
CLOUDS DEVELOPING NEAR SUNRISE...LIKELY LEADING TO MVFR
CONDITIONS.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 510 AM CDT WED OCT 1 2014/

SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT
DEWPOINTS IN THE UPPER 60S/LOWER 70S WERE BEGINNING TO SURGE INTO
ARKANSAS FROM THE GULF COAST. THIS WAS RESULTING IN A FEW SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS IN SOUTHWEST SECTIONS OF THE STATE. AS THE DAY
PROGRESSES... MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE BUILDING INTO THE
REGION...WITH ISOLATED TO SCATTERED PRECIPITATION IN THE FORECAST.

GIVEN THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING THIS EVENING...ANY RAIN WILL
TEND TO DISSIPATE. MORE HIT AND MISS PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO
POP UP ON THURSDAY.

IT WILL BE WARM THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...WITH ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES IN THE FORECAST. THAT WILL CHANGE IN A HURRY.

A COLD FRONT WILL ARRIVE FROM THE PLAINS THURSDAY EVENING...AND
WILL SWEEP ACROSS THE AREA. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BECOME
LIKELY...WITH SOME SEVERE WEATHER POSSIBLE. THE MAIN CONCERN WILL
BE STRONG TO DAMAGING WINDS. AT THIS POINT...IT APPEARS RAINFALL
WILL AVERAGE THREE QUARTERS OF AN INCH TO AN INCH AND A HALF.
LOCALLY MORE THAN TWO INCHES IS POSSIBLE.

THE FRONT WILL BE PRECEDED BY BREEZY SOUTHWEST WINDS...WITH WINDS
SHIFTING TO THE WEST/NORTHWEST THURSDAY NIGHT. BREEZY NORTHWEST
WINDS WILL CONTINUE ON FRIDAY...AND IT WILL BE QUITE A BIT
COOLER. RAPID CLEARING WILL TAKE PLACE FROM THE WEST.

THE PERIOD WILL FINISH WITH DRY CONDITIONS AND BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES TO START THE WEEKEND.

LONG TERM...SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY
FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT BETWEEN FORECAST MODEL SOLUTIONS TO START THE
LONG TERM PERIOD AS THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH SHIFTS EAST OF THE AREA ON
SUNDAY. THE EFFECTS OF THE TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO BE SEEN THROUGH
THE LONG TERM AS NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT REMAINS IN PLACE AS THE UPPER
LOW PERSISTS ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN PORTIONS OF CANADA.

HAVE LEFT THE LONG TERM PERIOD DRY ATTM...THOUGH THERE IS SOME
INDICATION THAT A FEW LOBES OF ENERGY COULD PINWHEEL AROUND THE
UPPER TROUGH AND COULD BRING SOME LIGHT RAIN ACROSS THE STATE AT ONE
TIME OR ANOTHER. BUT...CONFIDENCE ON TIMING/DEVELOPMENT OF THESE
FEATURES IS NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO JUSTIFY POPS ATTM. TEMPS THROUGH THE
LONG TERM LOOK TO BE NEAR SEASONAL NORMS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BATESVILLE AR     89  68  86  61 /  20  20  40  80
CAMDEN AR         90  71  89  65 /  30  10  40  70
HARRISON AR       86  68  82  55 /  20  20  60  70
HOT SPRINGS AR    88  70  85  61 /  20  20  50  80
LITTLE ROCK   AR  90  69  87  63 /  20  20  40  80
MONTICELLO AR     90  70  89  66 /  30  20  30  80
MOUNT IDA AR      88  69  83  59 /  20  20  60  80
MOUNTAIN HOME AR  88  67  85  58 /  20  20  60  80
NEWPORT AR        89  67  87  62 /  20  20  40  80
PINE BLUFF AR     90  69  88  64 /  20  20  30  70
RUSSELLVILLE AR   89  69  85  60 /  20  20  60  80
SEARCY AR         90  68  86  62 /  20  20  40  80
STUTTGART AR      89  68  87  63 /  20  20  30  80
&&

.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&

$$


AVIATION...61





000
FXUS64 KLZK 011807
AFDLZK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
107 PM CDT WED OCT 1 2014

.AVIATION...
LIGHT SCATTERED CONVECTION WILL REMAIN MOSTLY IN THE SOUTH AND
EAST THIS AFTERNOON. MVFR AND POSSIBLE IFR CONDITIONS WILL BECOME
MORE PROMINENT AFTER 06Z AS FRONT DRAWS CLOSER TO THE FA...ADDED
PROB30 BEGINNING AFTER 14Z AT NORTHERN TAF SITES...WITH BETTER
CHANCES AFTER THIS TAF PERIOD. PATCHY FOG WILL ALSO BE LIKELY TO
DEVELOP OVERNIGHT ACROSS REMAINING TERMINALS.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1108 AM CDT WED OCT 1 2014/

UPDATE...

ISOLATED SHOWERS CONTINUE SPORADICALLY ACROSS THE AREA LATE THIS
MORNING AS MOIST AIR CONTINUES TO LIFT NORTHWARD ACROSS THE
REGION. EXPECT THIS TREND OF HIT AND MISS PRECIP THOUGH THE
AFTERNOON...WITH SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ONGOING. BEST CHANCES WILL
LIKELY BE ACROSS THE SOUTH AND EAST...WITH PRECIP SPREADING UP
FROM LOUISIANA. MUCH OF THIS WILL BE DIURNALLY DRIVEN...WITH
PRECIP CHANCES DECREASING AFTER SUNSET. HOWEVER...DO EXPECT MOST
LOCATIONS TODAY TO REMAIN DRY. OTHERWISE...EXPECT A WARM AND HUMID
DAY...WITH TEMPS RUNNING WELL ABOVE NORMAL.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 620 AM CDT WED OCT 1 2014/

UPDATE...

UPDATED TO INCLUDE 12Z AVIATION DISCUSSION.

AVIATION...

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO PERSIST FOR MUCH OF THE TAF PERIOD.
EXPECT QUITE A FEW CLOUDS TODAY...SOME CU AT 5KFT AS WELL AS MID
AND HIGH CLOUDS OVER THAT. SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL BE IN PLACE
TODAY...STAYING JUST BELOW 10 KTS THROUGH THE DAY. SOME ISOLATED
SH/TS ACTIVITY WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON
TODAY...MOVEMENT WILL BE TO THE NORTHEAST. MOSTLY DRY OVERNIGHT...WITH LOW
CLOUDS DEVELOPING NEAR SUNRISE...LIKELY LEADING TO MVFR
CONDITIONS.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 510 AM CDT WED OCT 1 2014/

SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT
DEWPOINTS IN THE UPPER 60S/LOWER 70S WERE BEGINNING TO SURGE INTO
ARKANSAS FROM THE GULF COAST. THIS WAS RESULTING IN A FEW SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS IN SOUTHWEST SECTIONS OF THE STATE. AS THE DAY
PROGRESSES... MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE BUILDING INTO THE
REGION...WITH ISOLATED TO SCATTERED PRECIPITATION IN THE FORECAST.

GIVEN THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING THIS EVENING...ANY RAIN WILL
TEND TO DISSIPATE. MORE HIT AND MISS PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO
POP UP ON THURSDAY.

IT WILL BE WARM THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...WITH ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES IN THE FORECAST. THAT WILL CHANGE IN A HURRY.

A COLD FRONT WILL ARRIVE FROM THE PLAINS THURSDAY EVENING...AND
WILL SWEEP ACROSS THE AREA. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BECOME
LIKELY...WITH SOME SEVERE WEATHER POSSIBLE. THE MAIN CONCERN WILL
BE STRONG TO DAMAGING WINDS. AT THIS POINT...IT APPEARS RAINFALL
WILL AVERAGE THREE QUARTERS OF AN INCH TO AN INCH AND A HALF.
LOCALLY MORE THAN TWO INCHES IS POSSIBLE.

THE FRONT WILL BE PRECEDED BY BREEZY SOUTHWEST WINDS...WITH WINDS
SHIFTING TO THE WEST/NORTHWEST THURSDAY NIGHT. BREEZY NORTHWEST
WINDS WILL CONTINUE ON FRIDAY...AND IT WILL BE QUITE A BIT
COOLER. RAPID CLEARING WILL TAKE PLACE FROM THE WEST.

THE PERIOD WILL FINISH WITH DRY CONDITIONS AND BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES TO START THE WEEKEND.

LONG TERM...SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY
FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT BETWEEN FORECAST MODEL SOLUTIONS TO START THE
LONG TERM PERIOD AS THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH SHIFTS EAST OF THE AREA ON
SUNDAY. THE EFFECTS OF THE TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO BE SEEN THROUGH
THE LONG TERM AS NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT REMAINS IN PLACE AS THE UPPER
LOW PERSISTS ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN PORTIONS OF CANADA.

HAVE LEFT THE LONG TERM PERIOD DRY ATTM...THOUGH THERE IS SOME
INDICATION THAT A FEW LOBES OF ENERGY COULD PINWHEEL AROUND THE
UPPER TROUGH AND COULD BRING SOME LIGHT RAIN ACROSS THE STATE AT ONE
TIME OR ANOTHER. BUT...CONFIDENCE ON TIMING/DEVELOPMENT OF THESE
FEATURES IS NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO JUSTIFY POPS ATTM. TEMPS THROUGH THE
LONG TERM LOOK TO BE NEAR SEASONAL NORMS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BATESVILLE AR     89  68  86  61 /  20  20  40  80
CAMDEN AR         90  71  89  65 /  30  10  40  70
HARRISON AR       86  68  82  55 /  20  20  60  70
HOT SPRINGS AR    88  70  85  61 /  20  20  50  80
LITTLE ROCK   AR  90  69  87  63 /  20  20  40  80
MONTICELLO AR     90  70  89  66 /  30  20  30  80
MOUNT IDA AR      88  69  83  59 /  20  20  60  80
MOUNTAIN HOME AR  88  67  85  58 /  20  20  60  80
NEWPORT AR        89  67  87  62 /  20  20  40  80
PINE BLUFF AR     90  69  88  64 /  20  20  30  70
RUSSELLVILLE AR   89  69  85  60 /  20  20  60  80
SEARCY AR         90  68  86  62 /  20  20  40  80
STUTTGART AR      89  68  87  63 /  20  20  30  80
&&

.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&

$$


AVIATION...61





000
FXUS64 KLZK 011807
AFDLZK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
107 PM CDT WED OCT 1 2014

.AVIATION...
LIGHT SCATTERED CONVECTION WILL REMAIN MOSTLY IN THE SOUTH AND
EAST THIS AFTERNOON. MVFR AND POSSIBLE IFR CONDITIONS WILL BECOME
MORE PROMINENT AFTER 06Z AS FRONT DRAWS CLOSER TO THE FA...ADDED
PROB30 BEGINNING AFTER 14Z AT NORTHERN TAF SITES...WITH BETTER
CHANCES AFTER THIS TAF PERIOD. PATCHY FOG WILL ALSO BE LIKELY TO
DEVELOP OVERNIGHT ACROSS REMAINING TERMINALS.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1108 AM CDT WED OCT 1 2014/

UPDATE...

ISOLATED SHOWERS CONTINUE SPORADICALLY ACROSS THE AREA LATE THIS
MORNING AS MOIST AIR CONTINUES TO LIFT NORTHWARD ACROSS THE
REGION. EXPECT THIS TREND OF HIT AND MISS PRECIP THOUGH THE
AFTERNOON...WITH SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ONGOING. BEST CHANCES WILL
LIKELY BE ACROSS THE SOUTH AND EAST...WITH PRECIP SPREADING UP
FROM LOUISIANA. MUCH OF THIS WILL BE DIURNALLY DRIVEN...WITH
PRECIP CHANCES DECREASING AFTER SUNSET. HOWEVER...DO EXPECT MOST
LOCATIONS TODAY TO REMAIN DRY. OTHERWISE...EXPECT A WARM AND HUMID
DAY...WITH TEMPS RUNNING WELL ABOVE NORMAL.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 620 AM CDT WED OCT 1 2014/

UPDATE...

UPDATED TO INCLUDE 12Z AVIATION DISCUSSION.

AVIATION...

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO PERSIST FOR MUCH OF THE TAF PERIOD.
EXPECT QUITE A FEW CLOUDS TODAY...SOME CU AT 5KFT AS WELL AS MID
AND HIGH CLOUDS OVER THAT. SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL BE IN PLACE
TODAY...STAYING JUST BELOW 10 KTS THROUGH THE DAY. SOME ISOLATED
SH/TS ACTIVITY WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON
TODAY...MOVEMENT WILL BE TO THE NORTHEAST. MOSTLY DRY OVERNIGHT...WITH LOW
CLOUDS DEVELOPING NEAR SUNRISE...LIKELY LEADING TO MVFR
CONDITIONS.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 510 AM CDT WED OCT 1 2014/

SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT
DEWPOINTS IN THE UPPER 60S/LOWER 70S WERE BEGINNING TO SURGE INTO
ARKANSAS FROM THE GULF COAST. THIS WAS RESULTING IN A FEW SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS IN SOUTHWEST SECTIONS OF THE STATE. AS THE DAY
PROGRESSES... MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE BUILDING INTO THE
REGION...WITH ISOLATED TO SCATTERED PRECIPITATION IN THE FORECAST.

GIVEN THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING THIS EVENING...ANY RAIN WILL
TEND TO DISSIPATE. MORE HIT AND MISS PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO
POP UP ON THURSDAY.

IT WILL BE WARM THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...WITH ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES IN THE FORECAST. THAT WILL CHANGE IN A HURRY.

A COLD FRONT WILL ARRIVE FROM THE PLAINS THURSDAY EVENING...AND
WILL SWEEP ACROSS THE AREA. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BECOME
LIKELY...WITH SOME SEVERE WEATHER POSSIBLE. THE MAIN CONCERN WILL
BE STRONG TO DAMAGING WINDS. AT THIS POINT...IT APPEARS RAINFALL
WILL AVERAGE THREE QUARTERS OF AN INCH TO AN INCH AND A HALF.
LOCALLY MORE THAN TWO INCHES IS POSSIBLE.

THE FRONT WILL BE PRECEDED BY BREEZY SOUTHWEST WINDS...WITH WINDS
SHIFTING TO THE WEST/NORTHWEST THURSDAY NIGHT. BREEZY NORTHWEST
WINDS WILL CONTINUE ON FRIDAY...AND IT WILL BE QUITE A BIT
COOLER. RAPID CLEARING WILL TAKE PLACE FROM THE WEST.

THE PERIOD WILL FINISH WITH DRY CONDITIONS AND BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES TO START THE WEEKEND.

LONG TERM...SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY
FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT BETWEEN FORECAST MODEL SOLUTIONS TO START THE
LONG TERM PERIOD AS THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH SHIFTS EAST OF THE AREA ON
SUNDAY. THE EFFECTS OF THE TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO BE SEEN THROUGH
THE LONG TERM AS NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT REMAINS IN PLACE AS THE UPPER
LOW PERSISTS ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN PORTIONS OF CANADA.

HAVE LEFT THE LONG TERM PERIOD DRY ATTM...THOUGH THERE IS SOME
INDICATION THAT A FEW LOBES OF ENERGY COULD PINWHEEL AROUND THE
UPPER TROUGH AND COULD BRING SOME LIGHT RAIN ACROSS THE STATE AT ONE
TIME OR ANOTHER. BUT...CONFIDENCE ON TIMING/DEVELOPMENT OF THESE
FEATURES IS NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO JUSTIFY POPS ATTM. TEMPS THROUGH THE
LONG TERM LOOK TO BE NEAR SEASONAL NORMS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BATESVILLE AR     89  68  86  61 /  20  20  40  80
CAMDEN AR         90  71  89  65 /  30  10  40  70
HARRISON AR       86  68  82  55 /  20  20  60  70
HOT SPRINGS AR    88  70  85  61 /  20  20  50  80
LITTLE ROCK   AR  90  69  87  63 /  20  20  40  80
MONTICELLO AR     90  70  89  66 /  30  20  30  80
MOUNT IDA AR      88  69  83  59 /  20  20  60  80
MOUNTAIN HOME AR  88  67  85  58 /  20  20  60  80
NEWPORT AR        89  67  87  62 /  20  20  40  80
PINE BLUFF AR     90  69  88  64 /  20  20  30  70
RUSSELLVILLE AR   89  69  85  60 /  20  20  60  80
SEARCY AR         90  68  86  62 /  20  20  40  80
STUTTGART AR      89  68  87  63 /  20  20  30  80
&&

.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&

$$


AVIATION...61





000
FXUS64 KLZK 011608 AAA
AFDLZK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
1108 AM CDT WED OCT 1 2014

.UPDATE...

ISOLATED SHOWERS CONTINUE SPORADICALLY ACROSS THE AREA LATE THIS
MORNING AS MOIST AIR CONTINUES TO LIFT NORTHWARD ACROSS THE
REGION. EXPECT THIS TREND OF HIT AND MISS PRECIP THOUGH THE
AFTERNOON...WITH SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ONGOING. BEST CHANCES WILL
LIKELY BE ACROSS THE SOUTH AND EAST...WITH PRECIP SPREADING UP
FROM LOUISIANA. MUCH OF THIS WILL BE DIURNALLY DRIVEN...WITH
PRECIP CHANCES DECREASING AFTER SUNSET. HOWEVER...DO EXPECT MOST
LOCATIONS TODAY TO REMAIN DRY. OTHERWISE...EXPECT A WARM AND HUMID
DAY...WITH TEMPS RUNNING WELL ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 620 AM CDT WED OCT 1 2014/

UPDATE...

UPDATED TO INCLUDE 12Z AVIATION DISCUSSION.

AVIATION...

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO PERSIST FOR MUCH OF THE TAF PERIOD.
EXPECT QUITE A FEW CLOUDS TODAY...SOME CU AT 5KFT AS WELL AS MID
AND HIGH CLOUDS OVER THAT. SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL BE IN PLACE
TODAY...STAYING JUST BELOW 10 KTS THROUGH THE DAY. SOME ISOLATED
SH/TS ACTIVITY WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON
TODAY...MOVEMENT WILL BE TO THE NORTHEAST. MOSTLY DRY OVERNIGHT...WITH LOW
CLOUDS DEVELOPING NEAR SUNRISE...LIKELY LEADING TO MVFR
CONDITIONS.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 510 AM CDT WED OCT 1 2014/

SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT
DEWPOINTS IN THE UPPER 60S/LOWER 70S WERE BEGINNING TO SURGE INTO
ARKANSAS FROM THE GULF COAST. THIS WAS RESULTING IN A FEW SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS IN SOUTHWEST SECTIONS OF THE STATE. AS THE DAY
PROGRESSES... MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE BUILDING INTO THE
REGION...WITH ISOLATED TO SCATTERED PRECIPITATION IN THE FORECAST.

GIVEN THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING THIS EVENING...ANY RAIN WILL
TEND TO DISSIPATE. MORE HIT AND MISS PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO
POP UP ON THURSDAY.

IT WILL BE WARM THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...WITH ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES IN THE FORECAST. THAT WILL CHANGE IN A HURRY.

A COLD FRONT WILL ARRIVE FROM THE PLAINS THURSDAY EVENING...AND
WILL SWEEP ACROSS THE AREA. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BECOME
LIKELY...WITH SOME SEVERE WEATHER POSSIBLE. THE MAIN CONCERN WILL
BE STRONG TO DAMAGING WINDS. AT THIS POINT...IT APPEARS RAINFALL
WILL AVERAGE THREE QUARTERS OF AN INCH TO AN INCH AND A HALF.
LOCALLY MORE THAN TWO INCHES IS POSSIBLE.

THE FRONT WILL BE PRECEDED BY BREEZY SOUTHWEST WINDS...WITH WINDS
SHIFTING TO THE WEST/NORTHWEST THURSDAY NIGHT. BREEZY NORTHWEST
WINDS WILL CONTINUE ON FRIDAY...AND IT WILL BE QUITE A BIT
COOLER. RAPID CLEARING WILL TAKE PLACE FROM THE WEST.

THE PERIOD WILL FINISH WITH DRY CONDITIONS AND BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES TO START THE WEEKEND.

LONG TERM...SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY
FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT BETWEEN FORECAST MODEL SOLUTIONS TO START THE
LONG TERM PERIOD AS THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH SHIFTS EAST OF THE AREA ON
SUNDAY. THE EFFECTS OF THE TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO BE SEEN THROUGH
THE LONG TERM AS NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT REMAINS IN PLACE AS THE UPPER
LOW PERSISTS ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN PORTIONS OF CANADA.

HAVE LEFT THE LONG TERM PERIOD DRY ATTM...THOUGH THERE IS SOME
INDICATION THAT A FEW LOBES OF ENERGY COULD PINWHEEL AROUND THE
UPPER TROUGH AND COULD BRING SOME LIGHT RAIN ACROSS THE STATE AT ONE
TIME OR ANOTHER. BUT...CONFIDENCE ON TIMING/DEVELOPMENT OF THESE
FEATURES IS NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO JUSTIFY POPS ATTM. TEMPS THROUGH THE
LONG TERM LOOK TO BE NEAR SEASONAL NORMS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BATESVILLE AR     89  68  86  61 /  20  20  40  80
CAMDEN AR         90  71  89  65 /  30  10  40  70
HARRISON AR       86  68  82  55 /  20  20  60  70
HOT SPRINGS AR    88  70  85  61 /  20  20  50  80
LITTLE ROCK   AR  90  69  87  63 /  20  20  40  80
MONTICELLO AR     90  70  89  66 /  30  20  30  80
MOUNT IDA AR      88  69  83  59 /  20  20  60  80
MOUNTAIN HOME AR  88  67  85  58 /  20  20  60  80
NEWPORT AR        89  67  87  62 /  20  20  40  80
PINE BLUFF AR     90  69  88  64 /  20  20  30  70
RUSSELLVILLE AR   89  69  85  60 /  20  20  60  80
SEARCY AR         90  68  86  62 /  20  20  40  80
STUTTGART AR      89  68  87  63 /  20  20  30  80
&&

.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&

$$

224





000
FXUS64 KLZK 011608 AAA
AFDLZK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
1108 AM CDT WED OCT 1 2014

.UPDATE...

ISOLATED SHOWERS CONTINUE SPORADICALLY ACROSS THE AREA LATE THIS
MORNING AS MOIST AIR CONTINUES TO LIFT NORTHWARD ACROSS THE
REGION. EXPECT THIS TREND OF HIT AND MISS PRECIP THOUGH THE
AFTERNOON...WITH SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ONGOING. BEST CHANCES WILL
LIKELY BE ACROSS THE SOUTH AND EAST...WITH PRECIP SPREADING UP
FROM LOUISIANA. MUCH OF THIS WILL BE DIURNALLY DRIVEN...WITH
PRECIP CHANCES DECREASING AFTER SUNSET. HOWEVER...DO EXPECT MOST
LOCATIONS TODAY TO REMAIN DRY. OTHERWISE...EXPECT A WARM AND HUMID
DAY...WITH TEMPS RUNNING WELL ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 620 AM CDT WED OCT 1 2014/

UPDATE...

UPDATED TO INCLUDE 12Z AVIATION DISCUSSION.

AVIATION...

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO PERSIST FOR MUCH OF THE TAF PERIOD.
EXPECT QUITE A FEW CLOUDS TODAY...SOME CU AT 5KFT AS WELL AS MID
AND HIGH CLOUDS OVER THAT. SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL BE IN PLACE
TODAY...STAYING JUST BELOW 10 KTS THROUGH THE DAY. SOME ISOLATED
SH/TS ACTIVITY WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON
TODAY...MOVEMENT WILL BE TO THE NORTHEAST. MOSTLY DRY OVERNIGHT...WITH LOW
CLOUDS DEVELOPING NEAR SUNRISE...LIKELY LEADING TO MVFR
CONDITIONS.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 510 AM CDT WED OCT 1 2014/

SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT
DEWPOINTS IN THE UPPER 60S/LOWER 70S WERE BEGINNING TO SURGE INTO
ARKANSAS FROM THE GULF COAST. THIS WAS RESULTING IN A FEW SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS IN SOUTHWEST SECTIONS OF THE STATE. AS THE DAY
PROGRESSES... MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE BUILDING INTO THE
REGION...WITH ISOLATED TO SCATTERED PRECIPITATION IN THE FORECAST.

GIVEN THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING THIS EVENING...ANY RAIN WILL
TEND TO DISSIPATE. MORE HIT AND MISS PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO
POP UP ON THURSDAY.

IT WILL BE WARM THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...WITH ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES IN THE FORECAST. THAT WILL CHANGE IN A HURRY.

A COLD FRONT WILL ARRIVE FROM THE PLAINS THURSDAY EVENING...AND
WILL SWEEP ACROSS THE AREA. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BECOME
LIKELY...WITH SOME SEVERE WEATHER POSSIBLE. THE MAIN CONCERN WILL
BE STRONG TO DAMAGING WINDS. AT THIS POINT...IT APPEARS RAINFALL
WILL AVERAGE THREE QUARTERS OF AN INCH TO AN INCH AND A HALF.
LOCALLY MORE THAN TWO INCHES IS POSSIBLE.

THE FRONT WILL BE PRECEDED BY BREEZY SOUTHWEST WINDS...WITH WINDS
SHIFTING TO THE WEST/NORTHWEST THURSDAY NIGHT. BREEZY NORTHWEST
WINDS WILL CONTINUE ON FRIDAY...AND IT WILL BE QUITE A BIT
COOLER. RAPID CLEARING WILL TAKE PLACE FROM THE WEST.

THE PERIOD WILL FINISH WITH DRY CONDITIONS AND BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES TO START THE WEEKEND.

LONG TERM...SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY
FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT BETWEEN FORECAST MODEL SOLUTIONS TO START THE
LONG TERM PERIOD AS THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH SHIFTS EAST OF THE AREA ON
SUNDAY. THE EFFECTS OF THE TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO BE SEEN THROUGH
THE LONG TERM AS NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT REMAINS IN PLACE AS THE UPPER
LOW PERSISTS ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN PORTIONS OF CANADA.

HAVE LEFT THE LONG TERM PERIOD DRY ATTM...THOUGH THERE IS SOME
INDICATION THAT A FEW LOBES OF ENERGY COULD PINWHEEL AROUND THE
UPPER TROUGH AND COULD BRING SOME LIGHT RAIN ACROSS THE STATE AT ONE
TIME OR ANOTHER. BUT...CONFIDENCE ON TIMING/DEVELOPMENT OF THESE
FEATURES IS NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO JUSTIFY POPS ATTM. TEMPS THROUGH THE
LONG TERM LOOK TO BE NEAR SEASONAL NORMS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BATESVILLE AR     89  68  86  61 /  20  20  40  80
CAMDEN AR         90  71  89  65 /  30  10  40  70
HARRISON AR       86  68  82  55 /  20  20  60  70
HOT SPRINGS AR    88  70  85  61 /  20  20  50  80
LITTLE ROCK   AR  90  69  87  63 /  20  20  40  80
MONTICELLO AR     90  70  89  66 /  30  20  30  80
MOUNT IDA AR      88  69  83  59 /  20  20  60  80
MOUNTAIN HOME AR  88  67  85  58 /  20  20  60  80
NEWPORT AR        89  67  87  62 /  20  20  40  80
PINE BLUFF AR     90  69  88  64 /  20  20  30  70
RUSSELLVILLE AR   89  69  85  60 /  20  20  60  80
SEARCY AR         90  68  86  62 /  20  20  40  80
STUTTGART AR      89  68  87  63 /  20  20  30  80
&&

.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&

$$

224






000
FXUS64 KLZK 011120 AAA
AFDLZK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
620 AM CDT WED OCT 1 2014

.UPDATE...

UPDATED TO INCLUDE 12Z AVIATION DISCUSSION.

&&

.AVIATION...

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO PERSIST FOR MUCH OF THE TAF PERIOD.
EXPECT QUITE A FEW CLOUDS TODAY...SOME CU AT 5KFT AS WELL AS MID
AND HIGH CLOUDS OVER THAT. SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL BE IN PLACE
TODAY...STAYING JUST BELOW 10 KTS THROUGH THE DAY. SOME ISOLATED
SH/TS ACTIVITY WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON
TODAY...MOVEMENT WILL BE TO THE NORTHEAST. MOSTLY DRY OVERNIGHT...WITH LOW
CLOUDS DEVELOPING NEAR SUNRISE...LIKELY LEADING TO MVFR
CONDITIONS.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 510 AM CDT WED OCT 1 2014/

SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT
DEWPOINTS IN THE UPPER 60S/LOWER 70S WERE BEGINNING TO SURGE INTO
ARKANSAS FROM THE GULF COAST. THIS WAS RESULTING IN A FEW SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS IN SOUTHWEST SECTIONS OF THE STATE. AS THE DAY
PROGRESSES... MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE BUILDING INTO THE
REGION...WITH ISOLATED TO SCATTERED PRECIPITATION IN THE FORECAST.

GIVEN THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING THIS EVENING...ANY RAIN WILL
TEND TO DISSIPATE. MORE HIT AND MISS PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO
POP UP ON THURSDAY.

IT WILL BE WARM THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...WITH ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES IN THE FORECAST. THAT WILL CHANGE IN A HURRY.

A COLD FRONT WILL ARRIVE FROM THE PLAINS THURSDAY EVENING...AND
WILL SWEEP ACROSS THE AREA. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BECOME
LIKELY...WITH SOME SEVERE WEATHER POSSIBLE. THE MAIN CONCERN WILL
BE STRONG TO DAMAGING WINDS. AT THIS POINT...IT APPEARS RAINFALL
WILL AVERAGE THREE QUARTERS OF AN INCH TO AN INCH AND A HALF.
LOCALLY MORE THAN TWO INCHES IS POSSIBLE.

THE FRONT WILL BE PRECEDED BY BREEZY SOUTHWEST WINDS...WITH WINDS
SHIFTING TO THE WEST/NORTHWEST THURSDAY NIGHT. BREEZY NORTHWEST
WINDS WILL CONTINUE ON FRIDAY...AND IT WILL BE QUITE A BIT
COOLER. RAPID CLEARING WILL TAKE PLACE FROM THE WEST.

THE PERIOD WILL FINISH WITH DRY CONDITIONS AND BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES TO START THE WEEKEND.

LONG TERM...SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY
FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT BETWEEN FORECAST MODEL SOLUTIONS TO START THE
LONG TERM PERIOD AS THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH SHIFTS EAST OF THE AREA ON
SUNDAY. THE EFFECTS OF THE TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO BE SEEN THROUGH
THE LONG TERM AS NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT REMAINS IN PLACE AS THE UPPER
LOW PERSISTS ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN PORTIONS OF CANADA.

HAVE LEFT THE LONG TERM PERIOD DRY ATTM...THOUGH THERE IS SOME
INDICATION THAT A FEW LOBES OF ENERGY COULD PINWHEEL AROUND THE
UPPER TROUGH AND COULD BRING SOME LIGHT RAIN ACROSS THE STATE AT ONE
TIME OR ANOTHER. BUT...CONFIDENCE ON TIMING/DEVELOPMENT OF THESE
FEATURES IS NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO JUSTIFY POPS ATTM. TEMPS THROUGH THE
LONG TERM LOOK TO BE NEAR SEASONAL NORMS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BATESVILLE AR     88  68  86  61 /  20  20  40  80
CAMDEN AR         90  71  89  65 /  20  10  40  70
HARRISON AR       85  68  82  55 /  20  20  60  70
HOT SPRINGS AR    88  70  85  61 /  20  20  50  80
LITTLE ROCK   AR  90  69  87  63 /  20  20  40  80
MONTICELLO AR     90  70  89  66 /  20  20  30  80
MOUNT IDA AR      86  69  83  59 /  20  20  60  80
MOUNTAIN HOME AR  87  67  85  58 /  20  20  60  80
NEWPORT AR        89  67  87  62 /  20  20  40  80
PINE BLUFF AR     90  69  88  64 /  20  20  30  70
RUSSELLVILLE AR   88  69  85  60 /  20  20  60  80
SEARCY AR         89  68  86  62 /  20  20  40  80
STUTTGART AR      90  68  87  63 /  20  20  30  80
&&

.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&

$$


AVIATION...226





000
FXUS64 KLZK 011120 AAA
AFDLZK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
620 AM CDT WED OCT 1 2014

.UPDATE...

UPDATED TO INCLUDE 12Z AVIATION DISCUSSION.

&&

.AVIATION...

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO PERSIST FOR MUCH OF THE TAF PERIOD.
EXPECT QUITE A FEW CLOUDS TODAY...SOME CU AT 5KFT AS WELL AS MID
AND HIGH CLOUDS OVER THAT. SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL BE IN PLACE
TODAY...STAYING JUST BELOW 10 KTS THROUGH THE DAY. SOME ISOLATED
SH/TS ACTIVITY WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON
TODAY...MOVEMENT WILL BE TO THE NORTHEAST. MOSTLY DRY OVERNIGHT...WITH LOW
CLOUDS DEVELOPING NEAR SUNRISE...LIKELY LEADING TO MVFR
CONDITIONS.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 510 AM CDT WED OCT 1 2014/

SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT
DEWPOINTS IN THE UPPER 60S/LOWER 70S WERE BEGINNING TO SURGE INTO
ARKANSAS FROM THE GULF COAST. THIS WAS RESULTING IN A FEW SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS IN SOUTHWEST SECTIONS OF THE STATE. AS THE DAY
PROGRESSES... MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE BUILDING INTO THE
REGION...WITH ISOLATED TO SCATTERED PRECIPITATION IN THE FORECAST.

GIVEN THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING THIS EVENING...ANY RAIN WILL
TEND TO DISSIPATE. MORE HIT AND MISS PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO
POP UP ON THURSDAY.

IT WILL BE WARM THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...WITH ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES IN THE FORECAST. THAT WILL CHANGE IN A HURRY.

A COLD FRONT WILL ARRIVE FROM THE PLAINS THURSDAY EVENING...AND
WILL SWEEP ACROSS THE AREA. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BECOME
LIKELY...WITH SOME SEVERE WEATHER POSSIBLE. THE MAIN CONCERN WILL
BE STRONG TO DAMAGING WINDS. AT THIS POINT...IT APPEARS RAINFALL
WILL AVERAGE THREE QUARTERS OF AN INCH TO AN INCH AND A HALF.
LOCALLY MORE THAN TWO INCHES IS POSSIBLE.

THE FRONT WILL BE PRECEDED BY BREEZY SOUTHWEST WINDS...WITH WINDS
SHIFTING TO THE WEST/NORTHWEST THURSDAY NIGHT. BREEZY NORTHWEST
WINDS WILL CONTINUE ON FRIDAY...AND IT WILL BE QUITE A BIT
COOLER. RAPID CLEARING WILL TAKE PLACE FROM THE WEST.

THE PERIOD WILL FINISH WITH DRY CONDITIONS AND BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES TO START THE WEEKEND.

LONG TERM...SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY
FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT BETWEEN FORECAST MODEL SOLUTIONS TO START THE
LONG TERM PERIOD AS THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH SHIFTS EAST OF THE AREA ON
SUNDAY. THE EFFECTS OF THE TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO BE SEEN THROUGH
THE LONG TERM AS NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT REMAINS IN PLACE AS THE UPPER
LOW PERSISTS ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN PORTIONS OF CANADA.

HAVE LEFT THE LONG TERM PERIOD DRY ATTM...THOUGH THERE IS SOME
INDICATION THAT A FEW LOBES OF ENERGY COULD PINWHEEL AROUND THE
UPPER TROUGH AND COULD BRING SOME LIGHT RAIN ACROSS THE STATE AT ONE
TIME OR ANOTHER. BUT...CONFIDENCE ON TIMING/DEVELOPMENT OF THESE
FEATURES IS NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO JUSTIFY POPS ATTM. TEMPS THROUGH THE
LONG TERM LOOK TO BE NEAR SEASONAL NORMS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BATESVILLE AR     88  68  86  61 /  20  20  40  80
CAMDEN AR         90  71  89  65 /  20  10  40  70
HARRISON AR       85  68  82  55 /  20  20  60  70
HOT SPRINGS AR    88  70  85  61 /  20  20  50  80
LITTLE ROCK   AR  90  69  87  63 /  20  20  40  80
MONTICELLO AR     90  70  89  66 /  20  20  30  80
MOUNT IDA AR      86  69  83  59 /  20  20  60  80
MOUNTAIN HOME AR  87  67  85  58 /  20  20  60  80
NEWPORT AR        89  67  87  62 /  20  20  40  80
PINE BLUFF AR     90  69  88  64 /  20  20  30  70
RUSSELLVILLE AR   88  69  85  60 /  20  20  60  80
SEARCY AR         89  68  86  62 /  20  20  40  80
STUTTGART AR      90  68  87  63 /  20  20  30  80
&&

.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&

$$


AVIATION...226






000
FXUS64 KLZK 011010
AFDLZK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
510 AM CDT WED OCT 1 2014

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT
DEWPOINTS IN THE UPPER 60S/LOWER 70S WERE BEGINNING TO SURGE INTO
ARKANSAS FROM THE GULF COAST. THIS WAS RESULTING IN A FEW SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS IN SOUTHWEST SECTIONS OF THE STATE. AS THE DAY
PROGRESSES... MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE BUILDING INTO THE
REGION...WITH ISOLATED TO SCATTERED PRECIPITATION IN THE FORECAST.

GIVEN THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING THIS EVENING...ANY RAIN WILL
TEND TO DISSIPATE. MORE HIT AND MISS PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO
POP UP ON THURSDAY.

IT WILL BE WARM THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...WITH ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES IN THE FORECAST. THAT WILL CHANGE IN A HURRY.

A COLD FRONT WILL ARRIVE FROM THE PLAINS THURSDAY EVENING...AND
WILL SWEEP ACROSS THE AREA. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BECOME
LIKELY...WITH SOME SEVERE WEATHER POSSIBLE. THE MAIN CONCERN WILL
BE STRONG TO DAMAGING WINDS. AT THIS POINT...IT APPEARS RAINFALL
WILL AVERAGE THREE QUARTERS OF AN INCH TO AN INCH AND A HALF.
LOCALLY MORE THAN TWO INCHES IS POSSIBLE.

THE FRONT WILL BE PRECEDED BY BREEZY SOUTHWEST WINDS...WITH WINDS
SHIFTING TO THE WEST/NORTHWEST THURSDAY NIGHT. BREEZY NORTHWEST
WINDS WILL CONTINUE ON FRIDAY...AND IT WILL BE QUITE A BIT
COOLER. RAPID CLEARING WILL TAKE PLACE FROM THE WEST.

THE PERIOD WILL FINISH WITH DRY CONDITIONS AND BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES TO START THE WEEKEND.
&&

.LONG TERM...SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY
FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT BETWEEN FORECAST MODEL SOLUTIONS TO START THE
LONG TERM PERIOD AS THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH SHIFTS EAST OF THE AREA ON
SUNDAY. THE EFFECTS OF THE TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO BE SEEN THROUGH
THE LONG TERM AS NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT REMAINS IN PLACE AS THE UPPER
LOW PERSISTS ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN PORTIONS OF CANADA.

HAVE LEFT THE LONG TERM PERIOD DRY ATTM...THOUGH THERE IS SOME
INDICATION THAT A FEW LOBES OF ENERGY COULD PINWHEEL AROUND THE
UPPER TROUGH AND COULD BRING SOME LIGHT RAIN ACROSS THE STATE AT ONE
TIME OR ANOTHER. BUT...CONFIDENCE ON TIMING/DEVELOPMENT OF THESE
FEATURES IS NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO JUSTIFY POPS ATTM. TEMPS THROUGH THE
LONG TERM LOOK TO BE NEAR SEASONAL NORMS.
&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BATESVILLE AR     88  68  86  61 /  20  20  40  80
CAMDEN AR         90  71  89  65 /  20  10  40  70
HARRISON AR       85  68  82  55 /  20  20  60  70
HOT SPRINGS AR    88  70  85  61 /  20  20  50  80
LITTLE ROCK   AR  90  69  87  63 /  20  20  40  80
MONTICELLO AR     90  70  89  66 /  20  20  30  80
MOUNT IDA AR      86  69  83  59 /  20  20  60  80
MOUNTAIN HOME AR  87  67  85  58 /  20  20  60  80
NEWPORT AR        89  67  87  62 /  20  20  40  80
PINE BLUFF AR     90  69  88  64 /  20  20  30  70
RUSSELLVILLE AR   88  69  85  60 /  20  20  60  80
SEARCY AR         89  68  86  62 /  20  20  40  80
STUTTGART AR      90  68  87  63 /  20  20  30  80
&&

.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...46 / LONG TERM...226






000
FXUS64 KLZK 011010
AFDLZK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
510 AM CDT WED OCT 1 2014

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT
DEWPOINTS IN THE UPPER 60S/LOWER 70S WERE BEGINNING TO SURGE INTO
ARKANSAS FROM THE GULF COAST. THIS WAS RESULTING IN A FEW SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS IN SOUTHWEST SECTIONS OF THE STATE. AS THE DAY
PROGRESSES... MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE BUILDING INTO THE
REGION...WITH ISOLATED TO SCATTERED PRECIPITATION IN THE FORECAST.

GIVEN THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING THIS EVENING...ANY RAIN WILL
TEND TO DISSIPATE. MORE HIT AND MISS PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO
POP UP ON THURSDAY.

IT WILL BE WARM THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...WITH ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES IN THE FORECAST. THAT WILL CHANGE IN A HURRY.

A COLD FRONT WILL ARRIVE FROM THE PLAINS THURSDAY EVENING...AND
WILL SWEEP ACROSS THE AREA. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BECOME
LIKELY...WITH SOME SEVERE WEATHER POSSIBLE. THE MAIN CONCERN WILL
BE STRONG TO DAMAGING WINDS. AT THIS POINT...IT APPEARS RAINFALL
WILL AVERAGE THREE QUARTERS OF AN INCH TO AN INCH AND A HALF.
LOCALLY MORE THAN TWO INCHES IS POSSIBLE.

THE FRONT WILL BE PRECEDED BY BREEZY SOUTHWEST WINDS...WITH WINDS
SHIFTING TO THE WEST/NORTHWEST THURSDAY NIGHT. BREEZY NORTHWEST
WINDS WILL CONTINUE ON FRIDAY...AND IT WILL BE QUITE A BIT
COOLER. RAPID CLEARING WILL TAKE PLACE FROM THE WEST.

THE PERIOD WILL FINISH WITH DRY CONDITIONS AND BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES TO START THE WEEKEND.
&&

.LONG TERM...SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY
FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT BETWEEN FORECAST MODEL SOLUTIONS TO START THE
LONG TERM PERIOD AS THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH SHIFTS EAST OF THE AREA ON
SUNDAY. THE EFFECTS OF THE TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO BE SEEN THROUGH
THE LONG TERM AS NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT REMAINS IN PLACE AS THE UPPER
LOW PERSISTS ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN PORTIONS OF CANADA.

HAVE LEFT THE LONG TERM PERIOD DRY ATTM...THOUGH THERE IS SOME
INDICATION THAT A FEW LOBES OF ENERGY COULD PINWHEEL AROUND THE
UPPER TROUGH AND COULD BRING SOME LIGHT RAIN ACROSS THE STATE AT ONE
TIME OR ANOTHER. BUT...CONFIDENCE ON TIMING/DEVELOPMENT OF THESE
FEATURES IS NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO JUSTIFY POPS ATTM. TEMPS THROUGH THE
LONG TERM LOOK TO BE NEAR SEASONAL NORMS.
&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BATESVILLE AR     88  68  86  61 /  20  20  40  80
CAMDEN AR         90  71  89  65 /  20  10  40  70
HARRISON AR       85  68  82  55 /  20  20  60  70
HOT SPRINGS AR    88  70  85  61 /  20  20  50  80
LITTLE ROCK   AR  90  69  87  63 /  20  20  40  80
MONTICELLO AR     90  70  89  66 /  20  20  30  80
MOUNT IDA AR      86  69  83  59 /  20  20  60  80
MOUNTAIN HOME AR  87  67  85  58 /  20  20  60  80
NEWPORT AR        89  67  87  62 /  20  20  40  80
PINE BLUFF AR     90  69  88  64 /  20  20  30  70
RUSSELLVILLE AR   88  69  85  60 /  20  20  60  80
SEARCY AR         89  68  86  62 /  20  20  40  80
STUTTGART AR      90  68  87  63 /  20  20  30  80
&&

.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...46 / LONG TERM...226





000
FXUS64 KLZK 010524 AAA
AFDLZK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
1224 AM CDT WED OCT 1 2014

.UPDATE...

UPDATED TO INCLUDE 06Z AVIATION DISCUSSION.

&&

.AVIATION...

PRIMARILY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD...THOUGH
SOME LOWER FLIGHT CATEGORIES COULD BE SEEN AROUND KPBF/KLLQ AROUND SUNRISE.
SOME HIGH CLOUDS NOTED IN PLACES ATTM...WITH SOME 5KFT CLOUDS
ACROSS SW AR. SHOULD SEE QUITE A BIT OF CU DEVELOP AOA 5KFT
WEDNESDAY WITH A MID LEVEL DECK ABOVE THAT. WINDS WILL PRIMARILY
BE OUT OF THE SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE PERIOD...MAINLY BELOW 10
KTS...THOUGH A FEW GUSTS MAY BE SEEN AT NORTHERN TERMINALS. SHOULD
NOT HAVE MUCH SH/TS ACTIVITY THROUGH THE 06Z TAF PERIOD...THOUGH
SOME ISOLATED ACTIVITY MAY DEVELOP LATE IN THE DAY WEDNESDAY.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 946 PM CDT TUE SEP 30 2014/

UPDATE...

MINOR UPDATE TO ACCOUNT FOR MAINLY TEMPS TRENDS TNGT. LOW LVL DRY
AIR RMNS IN PLACE ACRS NERN AR WHERE DEWPOINTS ARE STILL IN THE
50S. MEANWHILE...SEEING LOW LVL MOISTURE SLOLY ON THE INCRS OVR
SWRN AR. ADJUSTED MIN TEMPS OVERNIGHT BASED ON THESE TRENDS. ALSO
DID MENTION A SLGT CHC OF SHRA ACRS SWRN AR LATE TNGT DUE TO
INCRSG LIFT/MOISTURE ADVECTION. THIS HAS ALSO BEEN INDCD BY THE
LAST SEVERAL HI-RES MODEL RUNS. REST OF FCST IN GOOD SHAPE...ALL
UPDATES ARE OUT. /44/


PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 257 PM CDT TUE SEP 30 2014/

SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT
SURFACE OBSERVATIONS AGAIN INDICATE ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ACROSS
THE FORECAST AREA THIS AFTERNOON. ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE
AGAIN EXPECTED THROUGH THURSDAY. SOUTHWEST SECTIONS WILL SEE
INCREASED CLOUD COVER...AND EVEN WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWER ACTIVITY ON
WEDNESDAY...AS MODEST LIFT...AND RELATIVELY LOW CONDENSATION
PRESSURE DEFICITS DEVELOP...IN THE 650-750 HPA LAYER.

FRONTAL SYSTEM IS STILL PROGGED TO AFFECT THE CWA LATE
THURSDAY/THURSDAY NIGHT. FORECAST INSTABILITY AND SHEAR PROFILES
CONTINUE TO SUGGEST THE DEVELOPMENT OF A LINEAR MCS...WITH A LATE
AFTERNOON/EVENING WINDOW FOR THE POTENTIAL OF SEVERE WIND GUSTS.

NOTICEABLY COOLER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT.

LONG TERM...SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY
THE WEEKEND WILL BE VERY FALL LIKE IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT...WITH
COOLER AND DRIER AIR BEING USHERED IN BY NORTHWEST FLOW. SATURDAY
WILL BE THE COOLEST DAY OF THE LONG TERM...CLIMBING BACK INTO THE
LOWER 80S BY MONDAY/TUESDAY. ADDED SOME SMALL POPS TO NORTH ARKANSAS
ON TUESDAY AS THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN FLATTENS OUT AND WEAK
DISTURBANCES GLIDE OVER SOUTHERN MISSOURI.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BATESVILLE AR     88  68  86  61 /  10  10  50  80
CAMDEN AR         90  71  89  65 /  20  10  40  80
HARRISON AR       85  68  82  55 /  10  20  70  60
HOT SPRINGS AR    88  70  85  61 /  10  10  70  70
LITTLE ROCK   AR  90  69  87  63 /  10  10  50  80
MONTICELLO AR     90  70  89  66 /  10  10  20  80
MOUNT IDA AR      86  69  83  59 /  10  10  70  60
MOUNTAIN HOME AR  87  67  85  58 /  10  20  70  70
NEWPORT AR        89  67  87  62 /  10  10  30  80
PINE BLUFF AR     90  69  88  64 /  10  10  30  80
RUSSELLVILLE AR   88  69  85  60 /  10  20  70  70
SEARCY AR         89  68  86  62 /  10  10  40  80
STUTTGART AR      90  68  87  63 /  10  10  30  80
&&

.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&

$$


AVIATION...226





000
FXUS64 KLZK 010524 AAA
AFDLZK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
1224 AM CDT WED OCT 1 2014

.UPDATE...

UPDATED TO INCLUDE 06Z AVIATION DISCUSSION.

&&

.AVIATION...

PRIMARILY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD...THOUGH
SOME LOWER FLIGHT CATEGORIES COULD BE SEEN AROUND KPBF/KLLQ AROUND SUNRISE.
SOME HIGH CLOUDS NOTED IN PLACES ATTM...WITH SOME 5KFT CLOUDS
ACROSS SW AR. SHOULD SEE QUITE A BIT OF CU DEVELOP AOA 5KFT
WEDNESDAY WITH A MID LEVEL DECK ABOVE THAT. WINDS WILL PRIMARILY
BE OUT OF THE SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE PERIOD...MAINLY BELOW 10
KTS...THOUGH A FEW GUSTS MAY BE SEEN AT NORTHERN TERMINALS. SHOULD
NOT HAVE MUCH SH/TS ACTIVITY THROUGH THE 06Z TAF PERIOD...THOUGH
SOME ISOLATED ACTIVITY MAY DEVELOP LATE IN THE DAY WEDNESDAY.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 946 PM CDT TUE SEP 30 2014/

UPDATE...

MINOR UPDATE TO ACCOUNT FOR MAINLY TEMPS TRENDS TNGT. LOW LVL DRY
AIR RMNS IN PLACE ACRS NERN AR WHERE DEWPOINTS ARE STILL IN THE
50S. MEANWHILE...SEEING LOW LVL MOISTURE SLOLY ON THE INCRS OVR
SWRN AR. ADJUSTED MIN TEMPS OVERNIGHT BASED ON THESE TRENDS. ALSO
DID MENTION A SLGT CHC OF SHRA ACRS SWRN AR LATE TNGT DUE TO
INCRSG LIFT/MOISTURE ADVECTION. THIS HAS ALSO BEEN INDCD BY THE
LAST SEVERAL HI-RES MODEL RUNS. REST OF FCST IN GOOD SHAPE...ALL
UPDATES ARE OUT. /44/


PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 257 PM CDT TUE SEP 30 2014/

SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT
SURFACE OBSERVATIONS AGAIN INDICATE ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ACROSS
THE FORECAST AREA THIS AFTERNOON. ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE
AGAIN EXPECTED THROUGH THURSDAY. SOUTHWEST SECTIONS WILL SEE
INCREASED CLOUD COVER...AND EVEN WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWER ACTIVITY ON
WEDNESDAY...AS MODEST LIFT...AND RELATIVELY LOW CONDENSATION
PRESSURE DEFICITS DEVELOP...IN THE 650-750 HPA LAYER.

FRONTAL SYSTEM IS STILL PROGGED TO AFFECT THE CWA LATE
THURSDAY/THURSDAY NIGHT. FORECAST INSTABILITY AND SHEAR PROFILES
CONTINUE TO SUGGEST THE DEVELOPMENT OF A LINEAR MCS...WITH A LATE
AFTERNOON/EVENING WINDOW FOR THE POTENTIAL OF SEVERE WIND GUSTS.

NOTICEABLY COOLER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT.

LONG TERM...SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY
THE WEEKEND WILL BE VERY FALL LIKE IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT...WITH
COOLER AND DRIER AIR BEING USHERED IN BY NORTHWEST FLOW. SATURDAY
WILL BE THE COOLEST DAY OF THE LONG TERM...CLIMBING BACK INTO THE
LOWER 80S BY MONDAY/TUESDAY. ADDED SOME SMALL POPS TO NORTH ARKANSAS
ON TUESDAY AS THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN FLATTENS OUT AND WEAK
DISTURBANCES GLIDE OVER SOUTHERN MISSOURI.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BATESVILLE AR     88  68  86  61 /  10  10  50  80
CAMDEN AR         90  71  89  65 /  20  10  40  80
HARRISON AR       85  68  82  55 /  10  20  70  60
HOT SPRINGS AR    88  70  85  61 /  10  10  70  70
LITTLE ROCK   AR  90  69  87  63 /  10  10  50  80
MONTICELLO AR     90  70  89  66 /  10  10  20  80
MOUNT IDA AR      86  69  83  59 /  10  10  70  60
MOUNTAIN HOME AR  87  67  85  58 /  10  20  70  70
NEWPORT AR        89  67  87  62 /  10  10  30  80
PINE BLUFF AR     90  69  88  64 /  10  10  30  80
RUSSELLVILLE AR   88  69  85  60 /  10  20  70  70
SEARCY AR         89  68  86  62 /  10  10  40  80
STUTTGART AR      90  68  87  63 /  10  10  30  80
&&

.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&

$$


AVIATION...226






000
FXUS64 KLZK 010246
AFDLZK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
946 PM CDT TUE SEP 30 2014

.UPDATE...

MINOR UPDATE TO ACCOUNT FOR MAINLY TEMPS TRENDS TNGT. LOW LVL DRY
AIR RMNS IN PLACE ACRS NERN AR WHERE DEWPOINTS ARE STILL IN THE
50S. MEANWHILE...SEEING LOW LVL MOISTURE SLOLY ON THE INCRS OVR
SWRN AR. ADJUSTED MIN TEMPS OVERNIGHT BASED ON THESE TRENDS. ALSO
DID MENTION A SLGT CHC OF SHRA ACRS SWRN AR LATE TNGT DUE TO
INCRSG LIFT/MOISTURE ADVECTION. THIS HAS ALSO BEEN INDCD BY THE
LAST SEVERAL HI-RES MODEL RUNS. REST OF FCST IN GOOD SHAPE...ALL
UPDATES ARE OUT. /44/
&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 638 PM CDT TUE SEP 30 2014/

AVIATION...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE OFF TO THE EAST TONIGHT. THIS WILL ALLOW
SOUTHERLY FLOW TO RETURN AND INCREASE MOISTURE ACROSS THE STATE.
EXPECT SOME MORNING FOG IN THE SOUTHEAST WITH SOME LOW
CLOUDS...AND MVFR CONDITIONS. MOST AREAS WILL BE VFR THROUGH THE
PERIOD. EXPECT MORE CUMULUS TOMORROW AND A LOWERING OF CEILINGS IN
THE AFTERNOON AS MID LEVEL CLOUDS INCREASE.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 257 PM CDT TUE SEP 30 2014/

SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT
SURFACE OBSERVATIONS AGAIN INDICATE ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ACROSS
THE FORECAST AREA THIS AFTERNOON. ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE
AGAIN EXPECTED THROUGH THURSDAY. SOUTHWEST SECTIONS WILL SEE
INCREASED CLOUD COVER...AND EVEN WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWER ACTIVITY ON
WEDNESDAY...AS MODEST LIFT...AND RELATIVELY LOW CONDENSATION
PRESSURE DEFICITS DEVELOP...IN THE 650-750 HPA LAYER.

FRONTAL SYSTEM IS STILL PROGGED TO AFFECT THE CWA LATE
THURSDAY/THURSDAY NIGHT. FORECAST INSTABILITY AND SHEAR PROFILES
CONTINUE TO SUGGEST THE DEVELOPMENT OF A LINEAR MCS...WITH A LATE
AFTERNOON/EVENING WINDOW FOR THE POTENTIAL OF SEVERE WIND GUSTS.

NOTICEABLY COOLER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT.

LONG TERM...SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY
THE WEEKEND WILL BE VERY FALL LIKE IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT...WITH
COOLER AND DRIER AIR BEING USHERED IN BY NORTHWEST FLOW. SATURDAY
WILL BE THE COOLEST DAY OF THE LONG TERM...CLIMBING BACK INTO THE
LOWER 80S BY MONDAY/TUESDAY. ADDED SOME SMALL POPS TO NORTH ARKANSAS
ON TUESDAY AS THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN FLATTENS OUT AND WEAK
DISTURBANCES GLIDE OVER SOUTHERN MISSOURI.
&&

.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&

$$






000
FXUS64 KLZK 010246
AFDLZK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
946 PM CDT TUE SEP 30 2014

.UPDATE...

MINOR UPDATE TO ACCOUNT FOR MAINLY TEMPS TRENDS TNGT. LOW LVL DRY
AIR RMNS IN PLACE ACRS NERN AR WHERE DEWPOINTS ARE STILL IN THE
50S. MEANWHILE...SEEING LOW LVL MOISTURE SLOLY ON THE INCRS OVR
SWRN AR. ADJUSTED MIN TEMPS OVERNIGHT BASED ON THESE TRENDS. ALSO
DID MENTION A SLGT CHC OF SHRA ACRS SWRN AR LATE TNGT DUE TO
INCRSG LIFT/MOISTURE ADVECTION. THIS HAS ALSO BEEN INDCD BY THE
LAST SEVERAL HI-RES MODEL RUNS. REST OF FCST IN GOOD SHAPE...ALL
UPDATES ARE OUT. /44/
&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 638 PM CDT TUE SEP 30 2014/

AVIATION...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE OFF TO THE EAST TONIGHT. THIS WILL ALLOW
SOUTHERLY FLOW TO RETURN AND INCREASE MOISTURE ACROSS THE STATE.
EXPECT SOME MORNING FOG IN THE SOUTHEAST WITH SOME LOW
CLOUDS...AND MVFR CONDITIONS. MOST AREAS WILL BE VFR THROUGH THE
PERIOD. EXPECT MORE CUMULUS TOMORROW AND A LOWERING OF CEILINGS IN
THE AFTERNOON AS MID LEVEL CLOUDS INCREASE.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 257 PM CDT TUE SEP 30 2014/

SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT
SURFACE OBSERVATIONS AGAIN INDICATE ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ACROSS
THE FORECAST AREA THIS AFTERNOON. ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE
AGAIN EXPECTED THROUGH THURSDAY. SOUTHWEST SECTIONS WILL SEE
INCREASED CLOUD COVER...AND EVEN WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWER ACTIVITY ON
WEDNESDAY...AS MODEST LIFT...AND RELATIVELY LOW CONDENSATION
PRESSURE DEFICITS DEVELOP...IN THE 650-750 HPA LAYER.

FRONTAL SYSTEM IS STILL PROGGED TO AFFECT THE CWA LATE
THURSDAY/THURSDAY NIGHT. FORECAST INSTABILITY AND SHEAR PROFILES
CONTINUE TO SUGGEST THE DEVELOPMENT OF A LINEAR MCS...WITH A LATE
AFTERNOON/EVENING WINDOW FOR THE POTENTIAL OF SEVERE WIND GUSTS.

NOTICEABLY COOLER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT.

LONG TERM...SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY
THE WEEKEND WILL BE VERY FALL LIKE IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT...WITH
COOLER AND DRIER AIR BEING USHERED IN BY NORTHWEST FLOW. SATURDAY
WILL BE THE COOLEST DAY OF THE LONG TERM...CLIMBING BACK INTO THE
LOWER 80S BY MONDAY/TUESDAY. ADDED SOME SMALL POPS TO NORTH ARKANSAS
ON TUESDAY AS THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN FLATTENS OUT AND WEAK
DISTURBANCES GLIDE OVER SOUTHERN MISSOURI.
&&

.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&

$$





000
FXUS64 KLZK 302338
AFDLZK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
638 PM CDT TUE SEP 30 2014

.AVIATION...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE OFF TO THE EAST TONIGHT. THIS WILL ALLOW
SOUTHERLY FLOW TO RETURN AND INCREASE MOISTURE ACROSS THE STATE.
EXPECT SOME MORNING FOG IN THE SOUTHEAST WITH SOME LOW
CLOUDS...AND MVFR CONDITIONS. MOST AREAS WILL BE VFR THROUGH THE
PERIOD. EXPECT MORE CUMULUS TOMORROW AND A LOWERING OF CEILINGS IN
THE AFTERNOON AS MID LEVEL CLOUDS INCREASE.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 257 PM CDT TUE SEP 30 2014/

SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT
SURFACE OBSERVATIONS AGAIN INDICATE ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ACROSS
THE FORECAST AREA THIS AFTERNOON. ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE
AGAIN EXPECTED THROUGH THURSDAY. SOUTHWEST SECTIONS WILL SEE
INCREASED CLOUD COVER...AND EVEN WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWER ACTIVITY ON
WEDNESDAY...AS MODEST LIFT...AND RELATIVELY LOW CONDENSATION
PRESSURE DEFICITS DEVELOP...IN THE 650-750 HPA LAYER.

FRONTAL SYSTEM IS STILL PROGGED TO AFFECT THE CWA LATE
THURSDAY/THURSDAY NIGHT. FORECAST INSTABILITY AND SHEAR PROFILES
CONTINUE TO SUGGEST THE DEVELOPMENT OF A LINEAR MCS...WITH A LATE
AFTERNOON/EVENING WINDOW FOR THE POTENTIAL OF SEVERE WIND GUSTS.

NOTICEABLY COOLER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT.

LONG TERM...SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY
THE WEEKEND WILL BE VERY FALL LIKE IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT...WITH
COOLER AND DRIER AIR BEING USHERED IN BY NORTHWEST FLOW. SATURDAY
WILL BE THE COOLEST DAY OF THE LONG TERM...CLIMBING BACK INTO THE
LOWER 80S BY MONDAY/TUESDAY. ADDED SOME SMALL POPS TO NORTH ARKANSAS
ON TUESDAY AS THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN FLATTENS OUT AND WEAK
DISTURBANCES GLIDE OVER SOUTHERN MISSOURI.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BATESVILLE AR     61  88  68  86 /  10  10  10  50
CAMDEN AR         66  90  71  89 /  10  20  10  40
HARRISON AR       61  85  68  82 /  10  10  20  70
HOT SPRINGS AR    64  88  70  85 /  10  10  10  70
LITTLE ROCK   AR  65  90  69  87 /  10  10  10  50
MONTICELLO AR     67  90  70  89 /  10  10  10  20
MOUNT IDA AR      63  86  69  83 /  10  10  10  70
MOUNTAIN HOME AR  59  87  67  85 /  10  10  20  70
NEWPORT AR        61  89  67  87 /  10  10  10  30
PINE BLUFF AR     65  90  69  88 /  10  10  10  30
RUSSELLVILLE AR   63  88  69  85 /  10  10  20  70
SEARCY AR         62  89  68  86 /  10  10  10  40
STUTTGART AR      64  90  68  87 /  10  10  10  30
&&

.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&

$$


AVIATION...51





000
FXUS64 KLZK 302338
AFDLZK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
638 PM CDT TUE SEP 30 2014

.AVIATION...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE OFF TO THE EAST TONIGHT. THIS WILL ALLOW
SOUTHERLY FLOW TO RETURN AND INCREASE MOISTURE ACROSS THE STATE.
EXPECT SOME MORNING FOG IN THE SOUTHEAST WITH SOME LOW
CLOUDS...AND MVFR CONDITIONS. MOST AREAS WILL BE VFR THROUGH THE
PERIOD. EXPECT MORE CUMULUS TOMORROW AND A LOWERING OF CEILINGS IN
THE AFTERNOON AS MID LEVEL CLOUDS INCREASE.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 257 PM CDT TUE SEP 30 2014/

SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT
SURFACE OBSERVATIONS AGAIN INDICATE ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ACROSS
THE FORECAST AREA THIS AFTERNOON. ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE
AGAIN EXPECTED THROUGH THURSDAY. SOUTHWEST SECTIONS WILL SEE
INCREASED CLOUD COVER...AND EVEN WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWER ACTIVITY ON
WEDNESDAY...AS MODEST LIFT...AND RELATIVELY LOW CONDENSATION
PRESSURE DEFICITS DEVELOP...IN THE 650-750 HPA LAYER.

FRONTAL SYSTEM IS STILL PROGGED TO AFFECT THE CWA LATE
THURSDAY/THURSDAY NIGHT. FORECAST INSTABILITY AND SHEAR PROFILES
CONTINUE TO SUGGEST THE DEVELOPMENT OF A LINEAR MCS...WITH A LATE
AFTERNOON/EVENING WINDOW FOR THE POTENTIAL OF SEVERE WIND GUSTS.

NOTICEABLY COOLER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT.

LONG TERM...SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY
THE WEEKEND WILL BE VERY FALL LIKE IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT...WITH
COOLER AND DRIER AIR BEING USHERED IN BY NORTHWEST FLOW. SATURDAY
WILL BE THE COOLEST DAY OF THE LONG TERM...CLIMBING BACK INTO THE
LOWER 80S BY MONDAY/TUESDAY. ADDED SOME SMALL POPS TO NORTH ARKANSAS
ON TUESDAY AS THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN FLATTENS OUT AND WEAK
DISTURBANCES GLIDE OVER SOUTHERN MISSOURI.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BATESVILLE AR     61  88  68  86 /  10  10  10  50
CAMDEN AR         66  90  71  89 /  10  20  10  40
HARRISON AR       61  85  68  82 /  10  10  20  70
HOT SPRINGS AR    64  88  70  85 /  10  10  10  70
LITTLE ROCK   AR  65  90  69  87 /  10  10  10  50
MONTICELLO AR     67  90  70  89 /  10  10  10  20
MOUNT IDA AR      63  86  69  83 /  10  10  10  70
MOUNTAIN HOME AR  59  87  67  85 /  10  10  20  70
NEWPORT AR        61  89  67  87 /  10  10  10  30
PINE BLUFF AR     65  90  69  88 /  10  10  10  30
RUSSELLVILLE AR   63  88  69  85 /  10  10  20  70
SEARCY AR         62  89  68  86 /  10  10  10  40
STUTTGART AR      64  90  68  87 /  10  10  10  30
&&

.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&

$$


AVIATION...51






000
FXUS64 KLZK 301957
AFDLZK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
257 PM CDT TUE SEP 30 2014

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT
SURFACE OBSERVATIONS AGAIN INDICATE ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ACROSS
THE FORECAST AREA THIS AFTERNOON. ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE
AGAIN EXPECTED THROUGH THURSDAY. SOUTHWEST SECTIONS WILL SEE
INCREASED CLOUD COVER...AND EVEN WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWER ACTIVITY ON
WEDNESDAY...AS MODEST LIFT...AND RELATIVELY LOW CONDENSATION
PRESSURE DEFICITS DEVELOP...IN THE 650-750 HPA LAYER.

FRONTAL SYSTEM IS STILL PROGGED TO AFFECT THE CWA LATE
THURSDAY/THURSDAY NIGHT. FORECAST INSTABILITY AND SHEAR PROFILES
CONTINUE TO SUGGEST THE DEVELOPMENT OF A LINEAR MCS...WITH A LATE
AFTERNOON/EVENING WINDOW FOR THE POTENTIAL OF SEVERE WIND GUSTS.

NOTICEABLY COOLER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM...SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY
THE WEEKEND WILL BE VERY FALL LIKE IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT...WITH
COOLER AND DRIER AIR BEING USHERED IN BY NORTHWEST FLOW. SATURDAY
WILL BE THE COOLEST DAY OF THE LONG TERM...CLIMBING BACK INTO THE
LOWER 80S BY MONDAY/TUESDAY. ADDED SOME SMALL POPS TO NORTH ARKANSAS
ON TUESDAY AS THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN FLATTENS OUT AND WEAK
DISTURBANCES GLIDE OVER SOUTHERN MISSOURI.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BATESVILLE AR     60  88  68  86 /  10  10  20  50
CAMDEN AR         64  90  71  89 /  20  20  20  40
HARRISON AR       61  85  68  82 /  10  10  50  70
HOT SPRINGS AR    63  88  70  85 /  10  10  20  70
LITTLE ROCK   AR  63  90  69  87 /  10  10  20  50
MONTICELLO AR     65  90  70  89 /  10  10  20  20
MOUNT IDA AR      62  86  69  83 /  10  10  30  70
MOUNTAIN HOME AR  58  87  67  85 /  10  10  40  70
NEWPORT AR        61  89  67  87 /  10  10  20  30
PINE BLUFF AR     64  90  69  88 /  10  10  20  30
RUSSELLVILLE AR   62  88  69  85 /  10  10  30  70
SEARCY AR         61  89  68  86 /  10  10  20  40
STUTTGART AR      63  90  68  87 /  10  10  20  30
&&

.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...55 / LONG TERM...61





000
FXUS64 KLZK 301957
AFDLZK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
257 PM CDT TUE SEP 30 2014

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT
SURFACE OBSERVATIONS AGAIN INDICATE ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ACROSS
THE FORECAST AREA THIS AFTERNOON. ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE
AGAIN EXPECTED THROUGH THURSDAY. SOUTHWEST SECTIONS WILL SEE
INCREASED CLOUD COVER...AND EVEN WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWER ACTIVITY ON
WEDNESDAY...AS MODEST LIFT...AND RELATIVELY LOW CONDENSATION
PRESSURE DEFICITS DEVELOP...IN THE 650-750 HPA LAYER.

FRONTAL SYSTEM IS STILL PROGGED TO AFFECT THE CWA LATE
THURSDAY/THURSDAY NIGHT. FORECAST INSTABILITY AND SHEAR PROFILES
CONTINUE TO SUGGEST THE DEVELOPMENT OF A LINEAR MCS...WITH A LATE
AFTERNOON/EVENING WINDOW FOR THE POTENTIAL OF SEVERE WIND GUSTS.

NOTICEABLY COOLER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM...SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY
THE WEEKEND WILL BE VERY FALL LIKE IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT...WITH
COOLER AND DRIER AIR BEING USHERED IN BY NORTHWEST FLOW. SATURDAY
WILL BE THE COOLEST DAY OF THE LONG TERM...CLIMBING BACK INTO THE
LOWER 80S BY MONDAY/TUESDAY. ADDED SOME SMALL POPS TO NORTH ARKANSAS
ON TUESDAY AS THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN FLATTENS OUT AND WEAK
DISTURBANCES GLIDE OVER SOUTHERN MISSOURI.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BATESVILLE AR     60  88  68  86 /  10  10  20  50
CAMDEN AR         64  90  71  89 /  20  20  20  40
HARRISON AR       61  85  68  82 /  10  10  50  70
HOT SPRINGS AR    63  88  70  85 /  10  10  20  70
LITTLE ROCK   AR  63  90  69  87 /  10  10  20  50
MONTICELLO AR     65  90  70  89 /  10  10  20  20
MOUNT IDA AR      62  86  69  83 /  10  10  30  70
MOUNTAIN HOME AR  58  87  67  85 /  10  10  40  70
NEWPORT AR        61  89  67  87 /  10  10  20  30
PINE BLUFF AR     64  90  69  88 /  10  10  20  30
RUSSELLVILLE AR   62  88  69  85 /  10  10  30  70
SEARCY AR         61  89  68  86 /  10  10  20  40
STUTTGART AR      63  90  68  87 /  10  10  20  30
&&

.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...55 / LONG TERM...61






000
FXUS64 KLZK 301735
AFDLZK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
1235 PM CDT TUE SEP 30 2014

.AVIATION...
EXPECT PREVAILING VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH AT LEAST THE FIRST HALF
OF THE FORECAST PERIOD FOR ALL TERMINALS. HOWEVER...OVERNIGHT
MODELS ARE SHOWING SOME WEAK UPPER LEVEL ENERGY MOVING IN OUT OF
THE ARKLATEX REGION JUSTIFYING AT LEAST SLIGHT POPS OVER THE
SOUTHERN TAF SITES INCLUDING KHOT/KADF/KLLQ/KPBF AS EARLY AS 12Z.
WINDS WILL BE GENERALLY LIGHT AND VARIABLE TODAY...BECOMING MOSTLY
SOUTHERLY AT 5 TO 10 KTS BY THE END OF THE PERIOD.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1045 AM CDT TUE SEP 30 2014/

UPDATE...
NEAR TERM FORECASTS APPEAR ON TRACK. FOCUS OF FORECASTS IN THIS
PERIOD CONTINUES TO BE EXPECTED LINEAR MCS...FOR LATE THURSDAY AND
THURSDAY EVENING.

55

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 613 AM CDT TUE SEP 30 2014/

DISCUSSION...

UPDATED TO INCLUDE THE 12Z AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW...

AVIATION...

OVERALL VFR FLIGHT CONDITIONS WILL BE SEEN OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
EARLY THIS MORNING PATCHY MVFR FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE AROUND MT
HOME...MVFR TO ISOLATED IFR FOG AROUND ARKADELPHIA AND IN RIVER
VALLEY AREAS. AFTER SUNRISE TODAY ANY FOG WILL DISSIPATE. WINDS WILL
BE CALM OR LIGHT AND VARIABLE THIS MORNING...BECOMING SE TO S AT 5
TO 10 MPH. THIS AFTERNOON PATCHY VFR CEILINGS WILL BE POSSIBLE AT
ALL TAF SITES.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 244 AM CDT TUE SEP 30 2014/

SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY

DRY AND ABOVE NORMAL CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT COUPLE
DAYS FOR MOST AREAS ACROSS THE CWA. AN UPPER RIDGE WILL BE IN PLACE
ACROSS THE REGION TODAY...THEN SHIFT EAST FOR WED...WITH AR
TRANSITIONING TO SW FLOW ALOFT AS A RESULT. TEMPS WILL BE IN THE
80S WITH SOME LOW 90S POSSIBLE.

WITH FLOW ALOFT OVER AR BECOMING SW ON WED...MOISTURE LEVELS WILL
BEGIN INCREASING AS SRLY SFC FLOW ALSO INCREASES. HAVE MENTIONED
SOME SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ON WED AFTERNOON AS A RESULT OF THIS
INCREASED MOISTURE AS SOME ISOLATED SHRA/TSRA COULD BE SEEN.
HOWEVER...LIKELY SEE DRY CONDITIONS FOR MOST AREAS.

AN UPPER TROUGH WILL BE EXITING THE ROCKIES INTO THE PLAINS ON
THU...WITH SFC LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING ACROSS THE PLAINS. THIS SFC
LOW WILL LIFT NE...WITH A COLD FRONT PUSHING EAST/SE TOWARDS THE
STATE FOR THU NIGHT. AS THIS HAPPENS...FORCING WILL INCREASE ACROSS
THE AREA AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT...AS WELL AS INCREASING INSTABILITY
WITH THE APPROACH OF THE UPPER TROUGH. HAVE INCREASED POPS A BIT
FURTHER FROM LIKELY TO CATEGORICAL FOR PORTIONS OF THE CWA.
INITIALLY...THE BEST POPS WILL BE ACROSS THE NWRN COUNTIES
THU...THEN TRANSITION EAST THROUGH THE AREA THU NIGHT.

THERE MAY BE ENOUGH INSTABILITY AND SHR AVAILABLE TO SEE A FEW
STRONG AND SVR STORMS AS THE FRONT PROGRESSES EAST THROUGH THE CWA.
SOME UNCERTAINTY DOES REMAIN ON HOW EXTENSIVE ANY SVR WX THREAT MAY
BE...SUCH AS THE TIMING OF THE FROPA...AND HOW MUCH INSTABILITY WILL
REMAIN AS THE FRONT LOOKS TO PUSH EAST AFTER DARK. EVEN SO...SHOULD
SEE AT LEAST SOME POTENTIAL FOR SOME STRONG TO SVR STORMS TO DEVELOP.
WIDESPREAD AND PERSISTENT HEAVY RAINFALL IS NOT EXPECTED WITH THIS
FRONT...BUT SOME SPOTS COULD SEE SOME BRIEF HEAVY RAINFALL...WITH A
THREAT FOR SOME ISOLATED FLASH FLOODING POSSIBLE.

THIS FRONT WILL HAVE PUSHED EAST OF THE AREA BY MIDDAY FRI...WITH
ONLY SOME LINGERING PRECIP CHANCES ACROSS THE ERN/SERN COUNTIES
EARLY FRI. BY LATE IN THE SHORT TERM...MUCH DRIER AND COOLER AIR
WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES TOWARDS AR.

LONG TERM...SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY

OVER THE WEEKEND...DRY AND COOLER WEATHER IS FORECAST. THE SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE THE MAIN WEATHER FACTOR. A QUICK MOVING SYSTEM
AND LOW PRESSURE TROUGH IS SEEN IN THE FLOW OVER THE CENTRAL
PLAINS...BUT WITH DRY AIR IN PLACE...NO PRECIP IS FORECAST FOR THE
REGION. A S TO SW WIND FLOW OVER AR...WHILE A POSSIBLE NW FLOW OVER
NORTHERN AR...WILL BE SEEN. USED MORE OF A EURO SOLUTION...SLOWER
THAN THE GFS ON THE FRONT OR LOW PRESSURE TROUGH INTO AR. MODELS TRY
TO SQUEEZE OUT SOME VERY LIGHT RAIN...ESPECIALLY OVER NE AR WITH THE
FRONT TROUGH. BUT HAVE KEPT IT DRY FOR NOW. TEMPERATURES FOR THE
WEEKEND START BELOW NORMAL WITH LOWS IN THE 40S TO 50S...AND HIGHS
IN THE 70S. INTO MONDAY...A REBOUND WILL BE SEEN WITH LOWS IN THE
50S...WHILE HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BATESVILLE AR     88  61  89  68 /   0   0  10  20
CAMDEN AR         90  67  90  71 /  10  10  20  10
HARRISON AR       85  60  86  66 /   0  10  20  30
HOT SPRINGS AR    87  65  88  70 /  10  10  20  20
LITTLE ROCK   AR  89  64  90  69 /   0   0  10  10
MONTICELLO AR     90  67  90  71 /  10  10  20  10
MOUNT IDA AR      86  64  87  69 /  10  10  20  20
MOUNTAIN HOME AR  86  60  87  67 /   0  10  20  20
NEWPORT AR        88  61  89  67 /   0   0  10  20
PINE BLUFF AR     89  65  90  69 /   0   0  10  10
RUSSELLVILLE AR   87  63  88  69 /   0  10  20  20
SEARCY AR         88  62  89  67 /   0   0  10  20
STUTTGART AR      88  64  90  68 /   0   0  10  10
&&

.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&

$$


AVIATION...61





000
FXUS64 KLZK 301545
AFDLZK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
1045 AM CDT TUE SEP 30 2014

.UPDATE...
NEAR TERM FORECASTS APPEAR ON TRACK. FOCUS OF FORECASTS IN THIS
PERIOD CONTINUES TO BE EXPECTED LINEAR MCS...FOR LATE THURSDAY AND
THURSDAY EVENING.

55

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 613 AM CDT TUE SEP 30 2014/

DISCUSSION...

UPDATED TO INCLUDE THE 12Z AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW...

AVIATION...

OVERALL VFR FLIGHT CONDITIONS WILL BE SEEN OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
EARLY THIS MORNING PATCHY MVFR FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE AROUND MT
HOME...MVFR TO ISOLATED IFR FOG AROUND ARKADELPHIA AND IN RIVER
VALLEY AREAS. AFTER SUNRISE TODAY ANY FOG WILL DISSIPATE. WINDS WILL
BE CALM OR LIGHT AND VARIABLE THIS MORNING...BECOMING SE TO S AT 5
TO 10 MPH. THIS AFTERNOON PATCHY VFR CEILINGS WILL BE POSSIBLE AT
ALL TAF SITES.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 244 AM CDT TUE SEP 30 2014/

SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY

DRY AND ABOVE NORMAL CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT COUPLE
DAYS FOR MOST AREAS ACROSS THE CWA. AN UPPER RIDGE WILL BE IN PLACE
ACROSS THE REGION TODAY...THEN SHIFT EAST FOR WED...WITH AR
TRANSITIONING TO SW FLOW ALOFT AS A RESULT. TEMPS WILL BE IN THE
80S WITH SOME LOW 90S POSSIBLE.

WITH FLOW ALOFT OVER AR BECOMING SW ON WED...MOISTURE LEVELS WILL
BEGIN INCREASING AS SRLY SFC FLOW ALSO INCREASES. HAVE MENTIONED
SOME SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ON WED AFTERNOON AS A RESULT OF THIS
INCREASED MOISTURE AS SOME ISOLATED SHRA/TSRA COULD BE SEEN.
HOWEVER...LIKELY SEE DRY CONDITIONS FOR MOST AREAS.

AN UPPER TROUGH WILL BE EXITING THE ROCKIES INTO THE PLAINS ON
THU...WITH SFC LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING ACROSS THE PLAINS. THIS SFC
LOW WILL LIFT NE...WITH A COLD FRONT PUSHING EAST/SE TOWARDS THE
STATE FOR THU NIGHT. AS THIS HAPPENS...FORCING WILL INCREASE ACROSS
THE AREA AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT...AS WELL AS INCREASING INSTABILITY
WITH THE APPROACH OF THE UPPER TROUGH. HAVE INCREASED POPS A BIT
FURTHER FROM LIKELY TO CATEGORICAL FOR PORTIONS OF THE CWA.
INITIALLY...THE BEST POPS WILL BE ACROSS THE NWRN COUNTIES
THU...THEN TRANSITION EAST THROUGH THE AREA THU NIGHT.

THERE MAY BE ENOUGH INSTABILITY AND SHR AVAILABLE TO SEE A FEW
STRONG AND SVR STORMS AS THE FRONT PROGRESSES EAST THROUGH THE CWA.
SOME UNCERTAINTY DOES REMAIN ON HOW EXTENSIVE ANY SVR WX THREAT MAY
BE...SUCH AS THE TIMING OF THE FROPA...AND HOW MUCH INSTABILITY WILL
REMAIN AS THE FRONT LOOKS TO PUSH EAST AFTER DARK. EVEN SO...SHOULD
SEE AT LEAST SOME POTENTIAL FOR SOME STRONG TO SVR STORMS TO DEVELOP.
WIDESPREAD AND PERSISTENT HEAVY RAINFALL IS NOT EXPECTED WITH THIS
FRONT...BUT SOME SPOTS COULD SEE SOME BRIEF HEAVY RAINFALL...WITH A
THREAT FOR SOME ISOLATED FLASH FLOODING POSSIBLE.

THIS FRONT WILL HAVE PUSHED EAST OF THE AREA BY MIDDAY FRI...WITH
ONLY SOME LINGERING PRECIP CHANCES ACROSS THE ERN/SERN COUNTIES
EARLY FRI. BY LATE IN THE SHORT TERM...MUCH DRIER AND COOLER AIR
WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES TOWARDS AR.

LONG TERM...SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY

OVER THE WEEKEND...DRY AND COOLER WEATHER IS FORECAST. THE SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE THE MAIN WEATHER FACTOR. A QUICK MOVING SYSTEM
AND LOW PRESSURE TROUGH IS SEEN IN THE FLOW OVER THE CENTRAL
PLAINS...BUT WITH DRY AIR IN PLACE...NO PRECIP IS FORECAST FOR THE
REGION. A S TO SW WIND FLOW OVER AR...WHILE A POSSIBLE NW FLOW OVER
NORTHERN AR...WILL BE SEEN. USED MORE OF A EURO SOLUTION...SLOWER
THAN THE GFS ON THE FRONT OR LOW PRESSURE TROUGH INTO AR. MODELS TRY
TO SQUEEZE OUT SOME VERY LIGHT RAIN...ESPECIALLY OVER NE AR WITH THE
FRONT TROUGH. BUT HAVE KEPT IT DRY FOR NOW. TEMPERATURES FOR THE
WEEKEND START BELOW NORMAL WITH LOWS IN THE 40S TO 50S...AND HIGHS
IN THE 70S. INTO MONDAY...A REBOUND WILL BE SEEN WITH LOWS IN THE
50S...WHILE HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BATESVILLE AR     88  61  89  68 /   0   0  10  20
CAMDEN AR         90  67  90  71 /  10  10  20  10
HARRISON AR       85  60  86  66 /   0  10  20  30
HOT SPRINGS AR    87  65  88  70 /  10  10  20  20
LITTLE ROCK   AR  89  64  90  69 /   0   0  10  10
MONTICELLO AR     90  67  90  71 /  10  10  20  10
MOUNT IDA AR      86  64  87  69 /  10  10  20  20
MOUNTAIN HOME AR  86  60  87  67 /   0  10  20  20
NEWPORT AR        88  61  89  67 /   0   0  10  20
PINE BLUFF AR     89  65  90  69 /   0   0  10  10
RUSSELLVILLE AR   87  63  88  69 /   0  10  20  20
SEARCY AR         88  62  89  67 /   0   0  10  20
STUTTGART AR      88  64  90  68 /   0   0  10  10
&&

.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&

$$


AVIATION...99





000
FXUS64 KLZK 301545
AFDLZK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
1045 AM CDT TUE SEP 30 2014

.UPDATE...
NEAR TERM FORECASTS APPEAR ON TRACK. FOCUS OF FORECASTS IN THIS
PERIOD CONTINUES TO BE EXPECTED LINEAR MCS...FOR LATE THURSDAY AND
THURSDAY EVENING.

55

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 613 AM CDT TUE SEP 30 2014/

DISCUSSION...

UPDATED TO INCLUDE THE 12Z AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW...

AVIATION...

OVERALL VFR FLIGHT CONDITIONS WILL BE SEEN OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
EARLY THIS MORNING PATCHY MVFR FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE AROUND MT
HOME...MVFR TO ISOLATED IFR FOG AROUND ARKADELPHIA AND IN RIVER
VALLEY AREAS. AFTER SUNRISE TODAY ANY FOG WILL DISSIPATE. WINDS WILL
BE CALM OR LIGHT AND VARIABLE THIS MORNING...BECOMING SE TO S AT 5
TO 10 MPH. THIS AFTERNOON PATCHY VFR CEILINGS WILL BE POSSIBLE AT
ALL TAF SITES.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 244 AM CDT TUE SEP 30 2014/

SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY

DRY AND ABOVE NORMAL CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT COUPLE
DAYS FOR MOST AREAS ACROSS THE CWA. AN UPPER RIDGE WILL BE IN PLACE
ACROSS THE REGION TODAY...THEN SHIFT EAST FOR WED...WITH AR
TRANSITIONING TO SW FLOW ALOFT AS A RESULT. TEMPS WILL BE IN THE
80S WITH SOME LOW 90S POSSIBLE.

WITH FLOW ALOFT OVER AR BECOMING SW ON WED...MOISTURE LEVELS WILL
BEGIN INCREASING AS SRLY SFC FLOW ALSO INCREASES. HAVE MENTIONED
SOME SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ON WED AFTERNOON AS A RESULT OF THIS
INCREASED MOISTURE AS SOME ISOLATED SHRA/TSRA COULD BE SEEN.
HOWEVER...LIKELY SEE DRY CONDITIONS FOR MOST AREAS.

AN UPPER TROUGH WILL BE EXITING THE ROCKIES INTO THE PLAINS ON
THU...WITH SFC LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING ACROSS THE PLAINS. THIS SFC
LOW WILL LIFT NE...WITH A COLD FRONT PUSHING EAST/SE TOWARDS THE
STATE FOR THU NIGHT. AS THIS HAPPENS...FORCING WILL INCREASE ACROSS
THE AREA AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT...AS WELL AS INCREASING INSTABILITY
WITH THE APPROACH OF THE UPPER TROUGH. HAVE INCREASED POPS A BIT
FURTHER FROM LIKELY TO CATEGORICAL FOR PORTIONS OF THE CWA.
INITIALLY...THE BEST POPS WILL BE ACROSS THE NWRN COUNTIES
THU...THEN TRANSITION EAST THROUGH THE AREA THU NIGHT.

THERE MAY BE ENOUGH INSTABILITY AND SHR AVAILABLE TO SEE A FEW
STRONG AND SVR STORMS AS THE FRONT PROGRESSES EAST THROUGH THE CWA.
SOME UNCERTAINTY DOES REMAIN ON HOW EXTENSIVE ANY SVR WX THREAT MAY
BE...SUCH AS THE TIMING OF THE FROPA...AND HOW MUCH INSTABILITY WILL
REMAIN AS THE FRONT LOOKS TO PUSH EAST AFTER DARK. EVEN SO...SHOULD
SEE AT LEAST SOME POTENTIAL FOR SOME STRONG TO SVR STORMS TO DEVELOP.
WIDESPREAD AND PERSISTENT HEAVY RAINFALL IS NOT EXPECTED WITH THIS
FRONT...BUT SOME SPOTS COULD SEE SOME BRIEF HEAVY RAINFALL...WITH A
THREAT FOR SOME ISOLATED FLASH FLOODING POSSIBLE.

THIS FRONT WILL HAVE PUSHED EAST OF THE AREA BY MIDDAY FRI...WITH
ONLY SOME LINGERING PRECIP CHANCES ACROSS THE ERN/SERN COUNTIES
EARLY FRI. BY LATE IN THE SHORT TERM...MUCH DRIER AND COOLER AIR
WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES TOWARDS AR.

LONG TERM...SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY

OVER THE WEEKEND...DRY AND COOLER WEATHER IS FORECAST. THE SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE THE MAIN WEATHER FACTOR. A QUICK MOVING SYSTEM
AND LOW PRESSURE TROUGH IS SEEN IN THE FLOW OVER THE CENTRAL
PLAINS...BUT WITH DRY AIR IN PLACE...NO PRECIP IS FORECAST FOR THE
REGION. A S TO SW WIND FLOW OVER AR...WHILE A POSSIBLE NW FLOW OVER
NORTHERN AR...WILL BE SEEN. USED MORE OF A EURO SOLUTION...SLOWER
THAN THE GFS ON THE FRONT OR LOW PRESSURE TROUGH INTO AR. MODELS TRY
TO SQUEEZE OUT SOME VERY LIGHT RAIN...ESPECIALLY OVER NE AR WITH THE
FRONT TROUGH. BUT HAVE KEPT IT DRY FOR NOW. TEMPERATURES FOR THE
WEEKEND START BELOW NORMAL WITH LOWS IN THE 40S TO 50S...AND HIGHS
IN THE 70S. INTO MONDAY...A REBOUND WILL BE SEEN WITH LOWS IN THE
50S...WHILE HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BATESVILLE AR     88  61  89  68 /   0   0  10  20
CAMDEN AR         90  67  90  71 /  10  10  20  10
HARRISON AR       85  60  86  66 /   0  10  20  30
HOT SPRINGS AR    87  65  88  70 /  10  10  20  20
LITTLE ROCK   AR  89  64  90  69 /   0   0  10  10
MONTICELLO AR     90  67  90  71 /  10  10  20  10
MOUNT IDA AR      86  64  87  69 /  10  10  20  20
MOUNTAIN HOME AR  86  60  87  67 /   0  10  20  20
NEWPORT AR        88  61  89  67 /   0   0  10  20
PINE BLUFF AR     89  65  90  69 /   0   0  10  10
RUSSELLVILLE AR   87  63  88  69 /   0  10  20  20
SEARCY AR         88  62  89  67 /   0   0  10  20
STUTTGART AR      88  64  90  68 /   0   0  10  10
&&

.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&

$$


AVIATION...99





000
FXUS64 KLZK 301545
AFDLZK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
1045 AM CDT TUE SEP 30 2014

.UPDATE...
NEAR TERM FORECASTS APPEAR ON TRACK. FOCUS OF FORECASTS IN THIS
PERIOD CONTINUES TO BE EXPECTED LINEAR MCS...FOR LATE THURSDAY AND
THURSDAY EVENING.

55

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 613 AM CDT TUE SEP 30 2014/

DISCUSSION...

UPDATED TO INCLUDE THE 12Z AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW...

AVIATION...

OVERALL VFR FLIGHT CONDITIONS WILL BE SEEN OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
EARLY THIS MORNING PATCHY MVFR FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE AROUND MT
HOME...MVFR TO ISOLATED IFR FOG AROUND ARKADELPHIA AND IN RIVER
VALLEY AREAS. AFTER SUNRISE TODAY ANY FOG WILL DISSIPATE. WINDS WILL
BE CALM OR LIGHT AND VARIABLE THIS MORNING...BECOMING SE TO S AT 5
TO 10 MPH. THIS AFTERNOON PATCHY VFR CEILINGS WILL BE POSSIBLE AT
ALL TAF SITES.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 244 AM CDT TUE SEP 30 2014/

SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY

DRY AND ABOVE NORMAL CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT COUPLE
DAYS FOR MOST AREAS ACROSS THE CWA. AN UPPER RIDGE WILL BE IN PLACE
ACROSS THE REGION TODAY...THEN SHIFT EAST FOR WED...WITH AR
TRANSITIONING TO SW FLOW ALOFT AS A RESULT. TEMPS WILL BE IN THE
80S WITH SOME LOW 90S POSSIBLE.

WITH FLOW ALOFT OVER AR BECOMING SW ON WED...MOISTURE LEVELS WILL
BEGIN INCREASING AS SRLY SFC FLOW ALSO INCREASES. HAVE MENTIONED
SOME SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ON WED AFTERNOON AS A RESULT OF THIS
INCREASED MOISTURE AS SOME ISOLATED SHRA/TSRA COULD BE SEEN.
HOWEVER...LIKELY SEE DRY CONDITIONS FOR MOST AREAS.

AN UPPER TROUGH WILL BE EXITING THE ROCKIES INTO THE PLAINS ON
THU...WITH SFC LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING ACROSS THE PLAINS. THIS SFC
LOW WILL LIFT NE...WITH A COLD FRONT PUSHING EAST/SE TOWARDS THE
STATE FOR THU NIGHT. AS THIS HAPPENS...FORCING WILL INCREASE ACROSS
THE AREA AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT...AS WELL AS INCREASING INSTABILITY
WITH THE APPROACH OF THE UPPER TROUGH. HAVE INCREASED POPS A BIT
FURTHER FROM LIKELY TO CATEGORICAL FOR PORTIONS OF THE CWA.
INITIALLY...THE BEST POPS WILL BE ACROSS THE NWRN COUNTIES
THU...THEN TRANSITION EAST THROUGH THE AREA THU NIGHT.

THERE MAY BE ENOUGH INSTABILITY AND SHR AVAILABLE TO SEE A FEW
STRONG AND SVR STORMS AS THE FRONT PROGRESSES EAST THROUGH THE CWA.
SOME UNCERTAINTY DOES REMAIN ON HOW EXTENSIVE ANY SVR WX THREAT MAY
BE...SUCH AS THE TIMING OF THE FROPA...AND HOW MUCH INSTABILITY WILL
REMAIN AS THE FRONT LOOKS TO PUSH EAST AFTER DARK. EVEN SO...SHOULD
SEE AT LEAST SOME POTENTIAL FOR SOME STRONG TO SVR STORMS TO DEVELOP.
WIDESPREAD AND PERSISTENT HEAVY RAINFALL IS NOT EXPECTED WITH THIS
FRONT...BUT SOME SPOTS COULD SEE SOME BRIEF HEAVY RAINFALL...WITH A
THREAT FOR SOME ISOLATED FLASH FLOODING POSSIBLE.

THIS FRONT WILL HAVE PUSHED EAST OF THE AREA BY MIDDAY FRI...WITH
ONLY SOME LINGERING PRECIP CHANCES ACROSS THE ERN/SERN COUNTIES
EARLY FRI. BY LATE IN THE SHORT TERM...MUCH DRIER AND COOLER AIR
WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES TOWARDS AR.

LONG TERM...SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY

OVER THE WEEKEND...DRY AND COOLER WEATHER IS FORECAST. THE SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE THE MAIN WEATHER FACTOR. A QUICK MOVING SYSTEM
AND LOW PRESSURE TROUGH IS SEEN IN THE FLOW OVER THE CENTRAL
PLAINS...BUT WITH DRY AIR IN PLACE...NO PRECIP IS FORECAST FOR THE
REGION. A S TO SW WIND FLOW OVER AR...WHILE A POSSIBLE NW FLOW OVER
NORTHERN AR...WILL BE SEEN. USED MORE OF A EURO SOLUTION...SLOWER
THAN THE GFS ON THE FRONT OR LOW PRESSURE TROUGH INTO AR. MODELS TRY
TO SQUEEZE OUT SOME VERY LIGHT RAIN...ESPECIALLY OVER NE AR WITH THE
FRONT TROUGH. BUT HAVE KEPT IT DRY FOR NOW. TEMPERATURES FOR THE
WEEKEND START BELOW NORMAL WITH LOWS IN THE 40S TO 50S...AND HIGHS
IN THE 70S. INTO MONDAY...A REBOUND WILL BE SEEN WITH LOWS IN THE
50S...WHILE HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BATESVILLE AR     88  61  89  68 /   0   0  10  20
CAMDEN AR         90  67  90  71 /  10  10  20  10
HARRISON AR       85  60  86  66 /   0  10  20  30
HOT SPRINGS AR    87  65  88  70 /  10  10  20  20
LITTLE ROCK   AR  89  64  90  69 /   0   0  10  10
MONTICELLO AR     90  67  90  71 /  10  10  20  10
MOUNT IDA AR      86  64  87  69 /  10  10  20  20
MOUNTAIN HOME AR  86  60  87  67 /   0  10  20  20
NEWPORT AR        88  61  89  67 /   0   0  10  20
PINE BLUFF AR     89  65  90  69 /   0   0  10  10
RUSSELLVILLE AR   87  63  88  69 /   0  10  20  20
SEARCY AR         88  62  89  67 /   0   0  10  20
STUTTGART AR      88  64  90  68 /   0   0  10  10
&&

.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&

$$


AVIATION...99





000
FXUS64 KLZK 301545
AFDLZK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
1045 AM CDT TUE SEP 30 2014

.UPDATE...
NEAR TERM FORECASTS APPEAR ON TRACK. FOCUS OF FORECASTS IN THIS
PERIOD CONTINUES TO BE EXPECTED LINEAR MCS...FOR LATE THURSDAY AND
THURSDAY EVENING.

55

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 613 AM CDT TUE SEP 30 2014/

DISCUSSION...

UPDATED TO INCLUDE THE 12Z AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW...

AVIATION...

OVERALL VFR FLIGHT CONDITIONS WILL BE SEEN OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
EARLY THIS MORNING PATCHY MVFR FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE AROUND MT
HOME...MVFR TO ISOLATED IFR FOG AROUND ARKADELPHIA AND IN RIVER
VALLEY AREAS. AFTER SUNRISE TODAY ANY FOG WILL DISSIPATE. WINDS WILL
BE CALM OR LIGHT AND VARIABLE THIS MORNING...BECOMING SE TO S AT 5
TO 10 MPH. THIS AFTERNOON PATCHY VFR CEILINGS WILL BE POSSIBLE AT
ALL TAF SITES.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 244 AM CDT TUE SEP 30 2014/

SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY

DRY AND ABOVE NORMAL CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT COUPLE
DAYS FOR MOST AREAS ACROSS THE CWA. AN UPPER RIDGE WILL BE IN PLACE
ACROSS THE REGION TODAY...THEN SHIFT EAST FOR WED...WITH AR
TRANSITIONING TO SW FLOW ALOFT AS A RESULT. TEMPS WILL BE IN THE
80S WITH SOME LOW 90S POSSIBLE.

WITH FLOW ALOFT OVER AR BECOMING SW ON WED...MOISTURE LEVELS WILL
BEGIN INCREASING AS SRLY SFC FLOW ALSO INCREASES. HAVE MENTIONED
SOME SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ON WED AFTERNOON AS A RESULT OF THIS
INCREASED MOISTURE AS SOME ISOLATED SHRA/TSRA COULD BE SEEN.
HOWEVER...LIKELY SEE DRY CONDITIONS FOR MOST AREAS.

AN UPPER TROUGH WILL BE EXITING THE ROCKIES INTO THE PLAINS ON
THU...WITH SFC LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING ACROSS THE PLAINS. THIS SFC
LOW WILL LIFT NE...WITH A COLD FRONT PUSHING EAST/SE TOWARDS THE
STATE FOR THU NIGHT. AS THIS HAPPENS...FORCING WILL INCREASE ACROSS
THE AREA AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT...AS WELL AS INCREASING INSTABILITY
WITH THE APPROACH OF THE UPPER TROUGH. HAVE INCREASED POPS A BIT
FURTHER FROM LIKELY TO CATEGORICAL FOR PORTIONS OF THE CWA.
INITIALLY...THE BEST POPS WILL BE ACROSS THE NWRN COUNTIES
THU...THEN TRANSITION EAST THROUGH THE AREA THU NIGHT.

THERE MAY BE ENOUGH INSTABILITY AND SHR AVAILABLE TO SEE A FEW
STRONG AND SVR STORMS AS THE FRONT PROGRESSES EAST THROUGH THE CWA.
SOME UNCERTAINTY DOES REMAIN ON HOW EXTENSIVE ANY SVR WX THREAT MAY
BE...SUCH AS THE TIMING OF THE FROPA...AND HOW MUCH INSTABILITY WILL
REMAIN AS THE FRONT LOOKS TO PUSH EAST AFTER DARK. EVEN SO...SHOULD
SEE AT LEAST SOME POTENTIAL FOR SOME STRONG TO SVR STORMS TO DEVELOP.
WIDESPREAD AND PERSISTENT HEAVY RAINFALL IS NOT EXPECTED WITH THIS
FRONT...BUT SOME SPOTS COULD SEE SOME BRIEF HEAVY RAINFALL...WITH A
THREAT FOR SOME ISOLATED FLASH FLOODING POSSIBLE.

THIS FRONT WILL HAVE PUSHED EAST OF THE AREA BY MIDDAY FRI...WITH
ONLY SOME LINGERING PRECIP CHANCES ACROSS THE ERN/SERN COUNTIES
EARLY FRI. BY LATE IN THE SHORT TERM...MUCH DRIER AND COOLER AIR
WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES TOWARDS AR.

LONG TERM...SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY

OVER THE WEEKEND...DRY AND COOLER WEATHER IS FORECAST. THE SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE THE MAIN WEATHER FACTOR. A QUICK MOVING SYSTEM
AND LOW PRESSURE TROUGH IS SEEN IN THE FLOW OVER THE CENTRAL
PLAINS...BUT WITH DRY AIR IN PLACE...NO PRECIP IS FORECAST FOR THE
REGION. A S TO SW WIND FLOW OVER AR...WHILE A POSSIBLE NW FLOW OVER
NORTHERN AR...WILL BE SEEN. USED MORE OF A EURO SOLUTION...SLOWER
THAN THE GFS ON THE FRONT OR LOW PRESSURE TROUGH INTO AR. MODELS TRY
TO SQUEEZE OUT SOME VERY LIGHT RAIN...ESPECIALLY OVER NE AR WITH THE
FRONT TROUGH. BUT HAVE KEPT IT DRY FOR NOW. TEMPERATURES FOR THE
WEEKEND START BELOW NORMAL WITH LOWS IN THE 40S TO 50S...AND HIGHS
IN THE 70S. INTO MONDAY...A REBOUND WILL BE SEEN WITH LOWS IN THE
50S...WHILE HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BATESVILLE AR     88  61  89  68 /   0   0  10  20
CAMDEN AR         90  67  90  71 /  10  10  20  10
HARRISON AR       85  60  86  66 /   0  10  20  30
HOT SPRINGS AR    87  65  88  70 /  10  10  20  20
LITTLE ROCK   AR  89  64  90  69 /   0   0  10  10
MONTICELLO AR     90  67  90  71 /  10  10  20  10
MOUNT IDA AR      86  64  87  69 /  10  10  20  20
MOUNTAIN HOME AR  86  60  87  67 /   0  10  20  20
NEWPORT AR        88  61  89  67 /   0   0  10  20
PINE BLUFF AR     89  65  90  69 /   0   0  10  10
RUSSELLVILLE AR   87  63  88  69 /   0  10  20  20
SEARCY AR         88  62  89  67 /   0   0  10  20
STUTTGART AR      88  64  90  68 /   0   0  10  10
&&

.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&

$$


AVIATION...99





000
FXUS64 KLZK 301113 AAA
AFDLZK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
613 AM CDT TUE SEP 30 2014

.DISCUSSION...

UPDATED TO INCLUDE THE 12Z AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW...

&&

.AVIATION...

OVERALL VFR FLIGHT CONDITIONS WILL BE SEEN OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
EARLY THIS MORNING PATCHY MVFR FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE AROUND MT
HOME...MVFR TO ISOLATED IFR FOG AROUND ARKADELPHIA AND IN RIVER
VALLEY AREAS. AFTER SUNRISE TODAY ANY FOG WILL DISSIPATE. WINDS WILL
BE CALM OR LIGHT AND VARIABLE THIS MORNING...BECOMING SE TO S AT 5
TO 10 MPH. THIS AFTERNOON PATCHY VFR CEILINGS WILL BE POSSIBLE AT
ALL TAF SITES.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 244 AM CDT TUE SEP 30 2014/

SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY

DRY AND ABOVE NORMAL CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT COUPLE
DAYS FOR MOST AREAS ACROSS THE CWA. AN UPPER RIDGE WILL BE IN PLACE
ACROSS THE REGION TODAY...THEN SHIFT EAST FOR WED...WITH AR
TRANSITIONING TO SW FLOW ALOFT AS A RESULT. TEMPS WILL BE IN THE
80S WITH SOME LOW 90S POSSIBLE.

WITH FLOW ALOFT OVER AR BECOMING SW ON WED...MOISTURE LEVELS WILL
BEGIN INCREASING AS SRLY SFC FLOW ALSO INCREASES. HAVE MENTIONED
SOME SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ON WED AFTERNOON AS A RESULT OF THIS
INCREASED MOISTURE AS SOME ISOLATED SHRA/TSRA COULD BE SEEN.
HOWEVER...LIKELY SEE DRY CONDITIONS FOR MOST AREAS.

AN UPPER TROUGH WILL BE EXITING THE ROCKIES INTO THE PLAINS ON
THU...WITH SFC LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING ACROSS THE PLAINS. THIS SFC
LOW WILL LIFT NE...WITH A COLD FRONT PUSHING EAST/SE TOWARDS THE
STATE FOR THU NIGHT. AS THIS HAPPENS...FORCING WILL INCREASE ACROSS
THE AREA AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT...AS WELL AS INCREASING INSTABILITY
WITH THE APPROACH OF THE UPPER TROUGH. HAVE INCREASED POPS A BIT
FURTHER FROM LIKELY TO CATEGORICAL FOR PORTIONS OF THE CWA.
INITIALLY...THE BEST POPS WILL BE ACROSS THE NWRN COUNTIES
THU...THEN TRANSITION EAST THROUGH THE AREA THU NIGHT.

THERE MAY BE ENOUGH INSTABILITY AND SHR AVAILABLE TO SEE A FEW
STRONG AND SVR STORMS AS THE FRONT PROGRESSES EAST THROUGH THE CWA.
SOME UNCERTAINTY DOES REMAIN ON HOW EXTENSIVE ANY SVR WX THREAT MAY
BE...SUCH AS THE TIMING OF THE FROPA...AND HOW MUCH INSTABILITY WILL
REMAIN AS THE FRONT LOOKS TO PUSH EAST AFTER DARK. EVEN SO...SHOULD
SEE AT LEAST SOME POTENTIAL FOR SOME STRONG TO SVR STORMS TO DEVELOP.
WIDESPREAD AND PERSISTENT HEAVY RAINFALL IS NOT EXPECTED WITH THIS
FRONT...BUT SOME SPOTS COULD SEE SOME BRIEF HEAVY RAINFALL...WITH A
THREAT FOR SOME ISOLATED FLASH FLOODING POSSIBLE.

THIS FRONT WILL HAVE PUSHED EAST OF THE AREA BY MIDDAY FRI...WITH
ONLY SOME LINGERING PRECIP CHANCES ACROSS THE ERN/SERN COUNTIES
EARLY FRI. BY LATE IN THE SHORT TERM...MUCH DRIER AND COOLER AIR
WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES TOWARDS AR.

LONG TERM...SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY

OVER THE WEEKEND...DRY AND COOLER WEATHER IS FORECAST. THE SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE THE MAIN WEATHER FACTOR. A QUICK MOVING SYSTEM
AND LOW PRESSURE TROUGH IS SEEN IN THE FLOW OVER THE CENTRAL
PLAINS...BUT WITH DRY AIR IN PLACE...NO PRECIP IS FORECAST FOR THE
REGION. A S TO SW WIND FLOW OVER AR...WHILE A POSSIBLE NW FLOW OVER
NORTHERN AR...WILL BE SEEN. USED MORE OF A EURO SOLUTION...SLOWER
THAN THE GFS ON THE FRONT OR LOW PRESSURE TROUGH INTO AR. MODELS TRY
TO SQUEEZE OUT SOME VERY LIGHT RAIN...ESPECIALLY OVER NE AR WITH THE
FRONT TROUGH. BUT HAVE KEPT IT DRY FOR NOW. TEMPERATURES FOR THE
WEEKEND START BELOW NORMAL WITH LOWS IN THE 40S TO 50S...AND HIGHS
IN THE 70S. INTO MONDAY...A REBOUND WILL BE SEEN WITH LOWS IN THE
50S...WHILE HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BATESVILLE AR     88  61  89  68 /   0   0  10  20
CAMDEN AR         90  67  90  71 /  10  10  20  10
HARRISON AR       85  60  86  66 /   0  10  20  30
HOT SPRINGS AR    87  65  88  70 /  10  10  20  20
LITTLE ROCK   AR  89  64  90  69 /   0   0  10  10
MONTICELLO AR     90  67  90  71 /  10  10  20  10
MOUNT IDA AR      86  64  87  69 /  10  10  20  20
MOUNTAIN HOME AR  86  60  87  67 /   0  10  20  20
NEWPORT AR        88  61  89  67 /   0   0  10  20
PINE BLUFF AR     89  65  90  69 /   0   0  10  10
RUSSELLVILLE AR   87  63  88  69 /   0  10  20  20
SEARCY AR         88  62  89  67 /   0   0  10  20
STUTTGART AR      88  64  90  68 /   0   0  10  10
&&

.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&

$$


AVIATION...59






000
FXUS64 KLZK 301113 AAA
AFDLZK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
613 AM CDT TUE SEP 30 2014

.DISCUSSION...

UPDATED TO INCLUDE THE 12Z AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW...

&&

.AVIATION...

OVERALL VFR FLIGHT CONDITIONS WILL BE SEEN OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
EARLY THIS MORNING PATCHY MVFR FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE AROUND MT
HOME...MVFR TO ISOLATED IFR FOG AROUND ARKADELPHIA AND IN RIVER
VALLEY AREAS. AFTER SUNRISE TODAY ANY FOG WILL DISSIPATE. WINDS WILL
BE CALM OR LIGHT AND VARIABLE THIS MORNING...BECOMING SE TO S AT 5
TO 10 MPH. THIS AFTERNOON PATCHY VFR CEILINGS WILL BE POSSIBLE AT
ALL TAF SITES.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 244 AM CDT TUE SEP 30 2014/

SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY

DRY AND ABOVE NORMAL CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT COUPLE
DAYS FOR MOST AREAS ACROSS THE CWA. AN UPPER RIDGE WILL BE IN PLACE
ACROSS THE REGION TODAY...THEN SHIFT EAST FOR WED...WITH AR
TRANSITIONING TO SW FLOW ALOFT AS A RESULT. TEMPS WILL BE IN THE
80S WITH SOME LOW 90S POSSIBLE.

WITH FLOW ALOFT OVER AR BECOMING SW ON WED...MOISTURE LEVELS WILL
BEGIN INCREASING AS SRLY SFC FLOW ALSO INCREASES. HAVE MENTIONED
SOME SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ON WED AFTERNOON AS A RESULT OF THIS
INCREASED MOISTURE AS SOME ISOLATED SHRA/TSRA COULD BE SEEN.
HOWEVER...LIKELY SEE DRY CONDITIONS FOR MOST AREAS.

AN UPPER TROUGH WILL BE EXITING THE ROCKIES INTO THE PLAINS ON
THU...WITH SFC LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING ACROSS THE PLAINS. THIS SFC
LOW WILL LIFT NE...WITH A COLD FRONT PUSHING EAST/SE TOWARDS THE
STATE FOR THU NIGHT. AS THIS HAPPENS...FORCING WILL INCREASE ACROSS
THE AREA AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT...AS WELL AS INCREASING INSTABILITY
WITH THE APPROACH OF THE UPPER TROUGH. HAVE INCREASED POPS A BIT
FURTHER FROM LIKELY TO CATEGORICAL FOR PORTIONS OF THE CWA.
INITIALLY...THE BEST POPS WILL BE ACROSS THE NWRN COUNTIES
THU...THEN TRANSITION EAST THROUGH THE AREA THU NIGHT.

THERE MAY BE ENOUGH INSTABILITY AND SHR AVAILABLE TO SEE A FEW
STRONG AND SVR STORMS AS THE FRONT PROGRESSES EAST THROUGH THE CWA.
SOME UNCERTAINTY DOES REMAIN ON HOW EXTENSIVE ANY SVR WX THREAT MAY
BE...SUCH AS THE TIMING OF THE FROPA...AND HOW MUCH INSTABILITY WILL
REMAIN AS THE FRONT LOOKS TO PUSH EAST AFTER DARK. EVEN SO...SHOULD
SEE AT LEAST SOME POTENTIAL FOR SOME STRONG TO SVR STORMS TO DEVELOP.
WIDESPREAD AND PERSISTENT HEAVY RAINFALL IS NOT EXPECTED WITH THIS
FRONT...BUT SOME SPOTS COULD SEE SOME BRIEF HEAVY RAINFALL...WITH A
THREAT FOR SOME ISOLATED FLASH FLOODING POSSIBLE.

THIS FRONT WILL HAVE PUSHED EAST OF THE AREA BY MIDDAY FRI...WITH
ONLY SOME LINGERING PRECIP CHANCES ACROSS THE ERN/SERN COUNTIES
EARLY FRI. BY LATE IN THE SHORT TERM...MUCH DRIER AND COOLER AIR
WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES TOWARDS AR.

LONG TERM...SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY

OVER THE WEEKEND...DRY AND COOLER WEATHER IS FORECAST. THE SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE THE MAIN WEATHER FACTOR. A QUICK MOVING SYSTEM
AND LOW PRESSURE TROUGH IS SEEN IN THE FLOW OVER THE CENTRAL
PLAINS...BUT WITH DRY AIR IN PLACE...NO PRECIP IS FORECAST FOR THE
REGION. A S TO SW WIND FLOW OVER AR...WHILE A POSSIBLE NW FLOW OVER
NORTHERN AR...WILL BE SEEN. USED MORE OF A EURO SOLUTION...SLOWER
THAN THE GFS ON THE FRONT OR LOW PRESSURE TROUGH INTO AR. MODELS TRY
TO SQUEEZE OUT SOME VERY LIGHT RAIN...ESPECIALLY OVER NE AR WITH THE
FRONT TROUGH. BUT HAVE KEPT IT DRY FOR NOW. TEMPERATURES FOR THE
WEEKEND START BELOW NORMAL WITH LOWS IN THE 40S TO 50S...AND HIGHS
IN THE 70S. INTO MONDAY...A REBOUND WILL BE SEEN WITH LOWS IN THE
50S...WHILE HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BATESVILLE AR     88  61  89  68 /   0   0  10  20
CAMDEN AR         90  67  90  71 /  10  10  20  10
HARRISON AR       85  60  86  66 /   0  10  20  30
HOT SPRINGS AR    87  65  88  70 /  10  10  20  20
LITTLE ROCK   AR  89  64  90  69 /   0   0  10  10
MONTICELLO AR     90  67  90  71 /  10  10  20  10
MOUNT IDA AR      86  64  87  69 /  10  10  20  20
MOUNTAIN HOME AR  86  60  87  67 /   0  10  20  20
NEWPORT AR        88  61  89  67 /   0   0  10  20
PINE BLUFF AR     89  65  90  69 /   0   0  10  10
RUSSELLVILLE AR   87  63  88  69 /   0  10  20  20
SEARCY AR         88  62  89  67 /   0   0  10  20
STUTTGART AR      88  64  90  68 /   0   0  10  10
&&

.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&

$$


AVIATION...59





    US Dept of Commerce
    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration
    National Weather Service
    1325 East West Highway
    Silver Spring, MD 20910
    Page Author: NWS Internet Services Team
Disclaimer
Information Quality
Credits
Glossary
Privacy Policy
Freedom of Information Act (FOIA)
About Us
Career Opportunities