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000
FXUS64 KLZK 281546 AAA
AFDLZK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
945 AM CST SAT FEB 28 2015

.UPDATE...
LIGHT SNOW WILL SPREAD ACROSS NORTHERN ARKANSAS THIS
AFTERNOON/EVENING FROM OKLAHOMA. AN INCH OR TWO OF
ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATION IS POSSIBLE...MAINLY NORTH OF
CLARKSVILLE...MARSHALL AND CAVE CITY. ADDED A FEW COUNTIES
ACROSS THE NORTH IN THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY ISSUED
EARLIER THIS MORNING. (46)

&&

.AVIATION...

CONTINUED SNOW WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS PORTIONS OF NORTHERN
ARKANSAS THROUGH THE DAY TODAY. VISIBILITIES AT KHRO AND
KBPK...CONTINUE TO BOUNCE BETWEEN 2 AND 4SM. ELSEWHERE...VFR
CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE FOR MUCH OF THE DAY. TONIGHT RAIN WILL
MOVE INTO CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN TAF SITES...AS SNOW ACROSS THE
NORTHERN TAF SITES TRANSITIONS TO SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 328 AM CST SAT FEB 28 2015/

OVERVIEW...
THE PERIOD WILL BE QUITE ACTIVE...AS WE GET TO THE TIME OF THE
YEAR WHERE THE COLD AND WARM AIR BATTLE IT OUT. WE WILL GO FROM
WINTER WEATHER...TO RAIN...TO THUNDERSTORMS...BACK TO WINTER ALL
WITHIN ABOUT FIVE DAYS.

SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT
UPPER LEVEL IMPULSES WILL CONTINUE MOVING THROUGH THE REGION
TODAY. LOW PRESSURE OVER THE GULF WILL CONTINUE TO SEND LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE INTO THE REGION. THE RESULTING INTERACTION WILL KEEP
PRECIP CHANCES OVER THE AREA THROUGH THE DAY...WHICH WILL REMAIN
THE HIGHEST IN THE WEST AND WHERE THE DEEPEST MOISTURE IS.

PRECIPITATION TYPE WILL BE ALL SNOW THROUGH THE MORNING...BEFORE
BECOMING RAIN IN THE CENTRAL AND SOUTH DURING THE AFTERNOON AS THE
LOW LEVELS WARM. PRECIP SHOULD STAY ALL SNOW IN THE NORTHWEST AND
NORTH.

HAVE CONTINUED THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN THE WEST THROUGH
NOON. ADDITIONAL SNOWFALL SHOULD BE LIGHT...BUT A FEW PLACES COULD
PICK UP AN ADDITIONAL INCH OR SO. EXTENDED THE ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM
ON SUNDAY IN THE FAR NORTH...AS SNOW WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE
THIS EVENING INTERMITTENTLY...AND WILL LIKELY CHANGE TO A FREEZING
RAIN/SLEET MIX AROUND OR AFTER MIDNIGHT. ADDITIONAL SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS OF ONE TO THREE INCHES WILL BE POSSIBLE. OVER ALL
QPF WILL BE LIGHT...SO ANY ICE ACCUMULATION LATE TONIGHT/EARLY
SUNDAY SHOULD BE LIGHT AS WELL...BUT IT USUALLY WILL NOT TAKE MUCH
TO CAUSE PROBLEMS.

WINDS SHOULD BECOME SOUTHERLY/SOUTHEASTERLY ON SUNDAY AHEAD OF AN
APPROACHING FRONTAL BOUNDARY. RAIN WILL BECOME LIKELY SUNDAY AND
SUNDAY NIGHT AS THE FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE REGION AND STALLS OUT
NEAR SOUTHERN ARKANSAS. THE FRONT WILL MOVE BACK TO THE NORTH AS A
WARM FRONT MONDAY/MONDAY NIGHT AS UPPER RIDGING BUILDS OVER THE
WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO.

THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE LIKELY ON TUESDAY...AS LOW PRESSURE TO THE
WEST DRAGS A MUCH STRONGER FRONT INTO THE REGION. AHEAD OF THE
FRONT...TEMPERATURES WILL WARM INTO THE 60S TO MAYBE NEAR 70 IN THE
SOUTHEAST. HOWEVER...AFTER THE FRONTAL PASSAGE TUESDAY NIGHT...YOU
CAN KISS THE WARM WEATHER GOODBYE FOR A WHILE. MORE ON THAT FROM OUR
LONG TERM FORECASTER...

LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY
WITH TEMPERATURES WELL ABOVE NORMAL TO END THE SHORT TERM...THE LONG
TERM CONTINUES TO LOOK UNSETTLED TO START. BEGINNING TO SEE VERY
GOOD AGREEMENT BETWEEN THE MODELS AS THE GFS/ECMWF/GEM ALL AGREE
COLD FRONT WILL BE WELL INTO THE STATE BY 12Z WEDNESDAY AND THROUGH
THE STATE BY 18Z.

THE BIG CHANGE WITH THE MODELS SINCE YESTERDAY IS THE ABUNDANT
MOISTURE AVAILABLE BEHIND THE FRONT. WITH VERY COLD AIR FOLLOWING
THE FRONT...THIS WOULD INDICATE A MIX OF WINTRY PRECIPITATION WILL
BE POSSIBLE. IN THIS RESPECT...WHEN COMPARING MODELS FROM YESTERDAY
TO TODAY...THE GFS HAS BEGUN TO COME MORE IN LINE WITH THE ECMWF.

PRECIPITATION WILL COME TO AN END BY THURSDAY WITH DRY AND VERY COLD
AIR CONTINUING TO FILTER INTO THE REGION FOR THURSDAY AND THURSDAY
NIGHT. TEMPERATURES WILL REBOUND A BIT ON FRIDAY AS SOUTHERLY FLOW
RETURNS TO THE NATURAL STATE.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BATESVILLE AR     36  31  45  33 /  30  40  60  50
CAMDEN AR         44  38  52  41 /  20  20  60  80
HARRISON AR       30  29  41  28 /  60  50  60  50
HOT SPRINGS AR    38  35  47  37 /  30  30  60  70
LITTLE ROCK   AR  39  34  47  38 /  20  30  60  70
MONTICELLO AR     45  38  54  42 /  20  20  60  80
MOUNT IDA AR      37  35  46  37 /  40  30  60  70
MOUNTAIN HOME AR  32  29  42  29 /  60  50  60  50
NEWPORT AR        38  32  45  33 /  30  40  60  60
PINE BLUFF AR     41  36  50  39 /  20  20  60  80
RUSSELLVILLE AR   36  33  44  35 /  50  40  60  60
SEARCY AR         38  32  46  36 /  20  30  60  60
STUTTGART AR      40  34  48  38 /  20  30  60  80
&&

.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM CST SUNDAY FOR
BAXTER-BOONE-JOHNSON-MARION-NEWTON-SEARCY.


WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM CST SUNDAY FOR FULTON-IZARD-
SHARP-STONE.


WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL NOON CST TODAY FOR LOGAN-
MONTGOMERY-POLK-POPE-SCOTT-YELL.

&&

$$






000
FXUS64 KLZK 281546 AAA
AFDLZK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
945 AM CST SAT FEB 28 2015

.UPDATE...
LIGHT SNOW WILL SPREAD ACROSS NORTHERN ARKANSAS THIS
AFTERNOON/EVENING FROM OKLAHOMA. AN INCH OR TWO OF
ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATION IS POSSIBLE...MAINLY NORTH OF
CLARKSVILLE...MARSHALL AND CAVE CITY. ADDED A FEW COUNTIES
ACROSS THE NORTH IN THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY ISSUED
EARLIER THIS MORNING. (46)

&&

.AVIATION...

CONTINUED SNOW WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS PORTIONS OF NORTHERN
ARKANSAS THROUGH THE DAY TODAY. VISIBILITIES AT KHRO AND
KBPK...CONTINUE TO BOUNCE BETWEEN 2 AND 4SM. ELSEWHERE...VFR
CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE FOR MUCH OF THE DAY. TONIGHT RAIN WILL
MOVE INTO CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN TAF SITES...AS SNOW ACROSS THE
NORTHERN TAF SITES TRANSITIONS TO SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 328 AM CST SAT FEB 28 2015/

OVERVIEW...
THE PERIOD WILL BE QUITE ACTIVE...AS WE GET TO THE TIME OF THE
YEAR WHERE THE COLD AND WARM AIR BATTLE IT OUT. WE WILL GO FROM
WINTER WEATHER...TO RAIN...TO THUNDERSTORMS...BACK TO WINTER ALL
WITHIN ABOUT FIVE DAYS.

SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT
UPPER LEVEL IMPULSES WILL CONTINUE MOVING THROUGH THE REGION
TODAY. LOW PRESSURE OVER THE GULF WILL CONTINUE TO SEND LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE INTO THE REGION. THE RESULTING INTERACTION WILL KEEP
PRECIP CHANCES OVER THE AREA THROUGH THE DAY...WHICH WILL REMAIN
THE HIGHEST IN THE WEST AND WHERE THE DEEPEST MOISTURE IS.

PRECIPITATION TYPE WILL BE ALL SNOW THROUGH THE MORNING...BEFORE
BECOMING RAIN IN THE CENTRAL AND SOUTH DURING THE AFTERNOON AS THE
LOW LEVELS WARM. PRECIP SHOULD STAY ALL SNOW IN THE NORTHWEST AND
NORTH.

HAVE CONTINUED THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN THE WEST THROUGH
NOON. ADDITIONAL SNOWFALL SHOULD BE LIGHT...BUT A FEW PLACES COULD
PICK UP AN ADDITIONAL INCH OR SO. EXTENDED THE ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM
ON SUNDAY IN THE FAR NORTH...AS SNOW WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE
THIS EVENING INTERMITTENTLY...AND WILL LIKELY CHANGE TO A FREEZING
RAIN/SLEET MIX AROUND OR AFTER MIDNIGHT. ADDITIONAL SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS OF ONE TO THREE INCHES WILL BE POSSIBLE. OVER ALL
QPF WILL BE LIGHT...SO ANY ICE ACCUMULATION LATE TONIGHT/EARLY
SUNDAY SHOULD BE LIGHT AS WELL...BUT IT USUALLY WILL NOT TAKE MUCH
TO CAUSE PROBLEMS.

WINDS SHOULD BECOME SOUTHERLY/SOUTHEASTERLY ON SUNDAY AHEAD OF AN
APPROACHING FRONTAL BOUNDARY. RAIN WILL BECOME LIKELY SUNDAY AND
SUNDAY NIGHT AS THE FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE REGION AND STALLS OUT
NEAR SOUTHERN ARKANSAS. THE FRONT WILL MOVE BACK TO THE NORTH AS A
WARM FRONT MONDAY/MONDAY NIGHT AS UPPER RIDGING BUILDS OVER THE
WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO.

THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE LIKELY ON TUESDAY...AS LOW PRESSURE TO THE
WEST DRAGS A MUCH STRONGER FRONT INTO THE REGION. AHEAD OF THE
FRONT...TEMPERATURES WILL WARM INTO THE 60S TO MAYBE NEAR 70 IN THE
SOUTHEAST. HOWEVER...AFTER THE FRONTAL PASSAGE TUESDAY NIGHT...YOU
CAN KISS THE WARM WEATHER GOODBYE FOR A WHILE. MORE ON THAT FROM OUR
LONG TERM FORECASTER...

LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY
WITH TEMPERATURES WELL ABOVE NORMAL TO END THE SHORT TERM...THE LONG
TERM CONTINUES TO LOOK UNSETTLED TO START. BEGINNING TO SEE VERY
GOOD AGREEMENT BETWEEN THE MODELS AS THE GFS/ECMWF/GEM ALL AGREE
COLD FRONT WILL BE WELL INTO THE STATE BY 12Z WEDNESDAY AND THROUGH
THE STATE BY 18Z.

THE BIG CHANGE WITH THE MODELS SINCE YESTERDAY IS THE ABUNDANT
MOISTURE AVAILABLE BEHIND THE FRONT. WITH VERY COLD AIR FOLLOWING
THE FRONT...THIS WOULD INDICATE A MIX OF WINTRY PRECIPITATION WILL
BE POSSIBLE. IN THIS RESPECT...WHEN COMPARING MODELS FROM YESTERDAY
TO TODAY...THE GFS HAS BEGUN TO COME MORE IN LINE WITH THE ECMWF.

PRECIPITATION WILL COME TO AN END BY THURSDAY WITH DRY AND VERY COLD
AIR CONTINUING TO FILTER INTO THE REGION FOR THURSDAY AND THURSDAY
NIGHT. TEMPERATURES WILL REBOUND A BIT ON FRIDAY AS SOUTHERLY FLOW
RETURNS TO THE NATURAL STATE.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BATESVILLE AR     36  31  45  33 /  30  40  60  50
CAMDEN AR         44  38  52  41 /  20  20  60  80
HARRISON AR       30  29  41  28 /  60  50  60  50
HOT SPRINGS AR    38  35  47  37 /  30  30  60  70
LITTLE ROCK   AR  39  34  47  38 /  20  30  60  70
MONTICELLO AR     45  38  54  42 /  20  20  60  80
MOUNT IDA AR      37  35  46  37 /  40  30  60  70
MOUNTAIN HOME AR  32  29  42  29 /  60  50  60  50
NEWPORT AR        38  32  45  33 /  30  40  60  60
PINE BLUFF AR     41  36  50  39 /  20  20  60  80
RUSSELLVILLE AR   36  33  44  35 /  50  40  60  60
SEARCY AR         38  32  46  36 /  20  30  60  60
STUTTGART AR      40  34  48  38 /  20  30  60  80
&&

.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM CST SUNDAY FOR
BAXTER-BOONE-JOHNSON-MARION-NEWTON-SEARCY.


WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM CST SUNDAY FOR FULTON-IZARD-
SHARP-STONE.


WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL NOON CST TODAY FOR LOGAN-
MONTGOMERY-POLK-POPE-SCOTT-YELL.

&&

$$







000
FXUS64 KLZK 281149
AFDLZK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
549 AM CST SAT FEB 28 2015

.AVIATION...

CONTINUED SNOW WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS PORTIONS OF NORTHERN
ARKANSAS THROUGH THE DAY TODAY. VISIBILITIES AT KHRO AND
KBPK...CONTINUE TO BOUNCE BETWEEN 2 AND 4SM. ELSEWHERE...VFR
CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE FOR MUCH OF THE DAY. TONIGHT RAIN WILL
MOVE INTO CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN TAF SITES...AS SNOW ACROSS THE
NORTHERN TAF SITES TRANSITIONS TO SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN.


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 328 AM CST SAT FEB 28 2015/

OVERVIEW...
THE PERIOD WILL BE QUITE ACTIVE...AS WE GET TO THE TIME OF THE
YEAR WHERE THE COLD AND WARM AIR BATTLE IT OUT. WE WILL GO FROM
WINTER WEATHER...TO RAIN...TO THUNDERSTORMS...BACK TO WINTER ALL
WITHIN ABOUT FIVE DAYS.

SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT
UPPER LEVEL IMPULSES WILL CONTINUE MOVING THROUGH THE REGION
TODAY. LOW PRESSURE OVER THE GULF WILL CONTINUE TO SEND LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE INTO THE REGION. THE RESULTING INTERACTION WILL KEEP
PRECIP CHANCES OVER THE AREA THROUGH THE DAY...WHICH WILL REMAIN
THE HIGHEST IN THE WEST AND WHERE THE DEEPEST MOISTURE IS.

PRECIPITATION TYPE WILL BE ALL SNOW THROUGH THE MORNING...BEFORE
BECOMING RAIN IN THE CENTRAL AND SOUTH DURING THE AFTERNOON AS THE
LOW LEVELS WARM. PRECIP SHOULD STAY ALL SNOW IN THE NORTHWEST AND
NORTH.

HAVE CONTINUED THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN THE WEST THROUGH
NOON. ADDITIONAL SNOWFALL SHOULD BE LIGHT...BUT A FEW PLACES COULD
PICK UP AN ADDITIONAL INCH OR SO. EXTENDED THE ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM
ON SUNDAY IN THE FAR NORTH...AS SNOW WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE
THIS EVENING INTERMITTENTLY...AND WILL LIKELY CHANGE TO A FREEZING
RAIN/SLEET MIX AROUND OR AFTER MIDNIGHT. ADDITIONAL SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS OF ONE TO THREE INCHES WILL BE POSSIBLE. OVER ALL
QPF WILL BE LIGHT...SO ANY ICE ACCUMULATION LATE TONIGHT/EARLY
SUNDAY SHOULD BE LIGHT AS WELL...BUT IT USUALLY WILL NOT TAKE MUCH
TO CAUSE PROBLEMS.

WINDS SHOULD BECOME SOUTHERLY/SOUTHEASTERLY ON SUNDAY AHEAD OF AN
APPROACHING FRONTAL BOUNDARY. RAIN WILL BECOME LIKELY SUNDAY AND
SUNDAY NIGHT AS THE FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE REGION AND STALLS OUT
NEAR SOUTHERN ARKANSAS. THE FRONT WILL MOVE BACK TO THE NORTH AS A
WARM FRONT MONDAY/MONDAY NIGHT AS UPPER RIDGING BUILDS OVER THE
WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO.

THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE LIKELY ON TUESDAY...AS LOW PRESSURE TO THE
WEST DRAGS A MUCH STRONGER FRONT INTO THE REGION. AHEAD OF THE FRONT...
TEMPERATURES WILL WARM INTO THE 60S TO MAYBE NEAR 70 IN THE
SOUTHEAST. HOWEVER...AFTER THE FRONTAL PASSAGE TUESDAY NIGHT...YOU
CAN KISS THE WARM WEATHER GOODBYE FOR A WHILE. MORE ON THAT FROM
OUR LONG TERM FORECASTER...

LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY
WITH TEMPERATURES WELL ABOVE NORMAL TO END THE SHORT TERM...THE LONG
TERM CONTINUES TO LOOK UNSETTLED TO START. BEGINNING TO SEE VERY
GOOD AGREEMENT BETWEEN THE MODELS AS THE GFS/ECMWF/GEM ALL AGREE
COLD FRONT WILL BE WELL INTO THE STATE BY 12Z WEDNESDAY AND THROUGH
THE STATE BY 18Z.

THE BIG CHANGE WITH THE MODELS SINCE YESTERDAY IS THE ABUNDANT
MOISTURE AVAILABLE BEHIND THE FRONT. WITH VERY COLD AIR FOLLOWING
THE FRONT...THIS WOULD INDICATE A MIX OF WINTRY PRECIPITATION WILL
BE POSSIBLE. IN THIS RESPECT...WHEN COMPARING MODELS FROM YESTERDAY
TO TODAY...THE GFS HAS BEGUN TO COME MORE IN LINE WITH THE ECMWF.

PRECIPITATION WILL COME TO AN END BY THURSDAY WITH DRY AND VERY COLD
AIR CONTINUING TO FILTER INTO THE REGION FOR THURSDAY AND THURSDAY
NIGHT. TEMPERATURES WILL REBOUND A BIT ON FRIDAY AS SOUTHERLY FLOW
RETURNS TO THE NATURAL STATE.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BATESVILLE AR     36  31  45  33 /  30  40  60  50
CAMDEN AR         44  38  52  41 /  20  20  60  80
HARRISON AR       30  29  41  28 /  60  50  60  50
HOT SPRINGS AR    38  35  47  37 /  30  30  60  70
LITTLE ROCK   AR  39  34  47  38 /  20  30  60  70
MONTICELLO AR     45  38  54  42 /  20  20  60  80
MOUNT IDA AR      37  35  46  37 /  40  30  60  70
MOUNTAIN HOME AR  32  29  42  29 /  60  50  60  50
NEWPORT AR        38  32  45  33 /  30  40  60  60
PINE BLUFF AR     41  36  50  39 /  20  20  60  80
RUSSELLVILLE AR   36  33  44  35 /  50  40  60  60
SEARCY AR         38  32  46  36 /  20  30  60  60
STUTTGART AR      40  34  48  38 /  20  30  60  80
&&

.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM CST SUNDAY FOR BAXTER-BOONE-
MARION.


WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL NOON CST TODAY FOR JOHNSON-LOGAN-
MONTGOMERY-NEWTON-POLK-POPE-SCOTT-SEARCY-YELL.

&&

$$


AVIATION...65






000
FXUS64 KLZK 281149
AFDLZK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
549 AM CST SAT FEB 28 2015

.AVIATION...

CONTINUED SNOW WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS PORTIONS OF NORTHERN
ARKANSAS THROUGH THE DAY TODAY. VISIBILITIES AT KHRO AND
KBPK...CONTINUE TO BOUNCE BETWEEN 2 AND 4SM. ELSEWHERE...VFR
CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE FOR MUCH OF THE DAY. TONIGHT RAIN WILL
MOVE INTO CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN TAF SITES...AS SNOW ACROSS THE
NORTHERN TAF SITES TRANSITIONS TO SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN.


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 328 AM CST SAT FEB 28 2015/

OVERVIEW...
THE PERIOD WILL BE QUITE ACTIVE...AS WE GET TO THE TIME OF THE
YEAR WHERE THE COLD AND WARM AIR BATTLE IT OUT. WE WILL GO FROM
WINTER WEATHER...TO RAIN...TO THUNDERSTORMS...BACK TO WINTER ALL
WITHIN ABOUT FIVE DAYS.

SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT
UPPER LEVEL IMPULSES WILL CONTINUE MOVING THROUGH THE REGION
TODAY. LOW PRESSURE OVER THE GULF WILL CONTINUE TO SEND LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE INTO THE REGION. THE RESULTING INTERACTION WILL KEEP
PRECIP CHANCES OVER THE AREA THROUGH THE DAY...WHICH WILL REMAIN
THE HIGHEST IN THE WEST AND WHERE THE DEEPEST MOISTURE IS.

PRECIPITATION TYPE WILL BE ALL SNOW THROUGH THE MORNING...BEFORE
BECOMING RAIN IN THE CENTRAL AND SOUTH DURING THE AFTERNOON AS THE
LOW LEVELS WARM. PRECIP SHOULD STAY ALL SNOW IN THE NORTHWEST AND
NORTH.

HAVE CONTINUED THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN THE WEST THROUGH
NOON. ADDITIONAL SNOWFALL SHOULD BE LIGHT...BUT A FEW PLACES COULD
PICK UP AN ADDITIONAL INCH OR SO. EXTENDED THE ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM
ON SUNDAY IN THE FAR NORTH...AS SNOW WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE
THIS EVENING INTERMITTENTLY...AND WILL LIKELY CHANGE TO A FREEZING
RAIN/SLEET MIX AROUND OR AFTER MIDNIGHT. ADDITIONAL SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS OF ONE TO THREE INCHES WILL BE POSSIBLE. OVER ALL
QPF WILL BE LIGHT...SO ANY ICE ACCUMULATION LATE TONIGHT/EARLY
SUNDAY SHOULD BE LIGHT AS WELL...BUT IT USUALLY WILL NOT TAKE MUCH
TO CAUSE PROBLEMS.

WINDS SHOULD BECOME SOUTHERLY/SOUTHEASTERLY ON SUNDAY AHEAD OF AN
APPROACHING FRONTAL BOUNDARY. RAIN WILL BECOME LIKELY SUNDAY AND
SUNDAY NIGHT AS THE FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE REGION AND STALLS OUT
NEAR SOUTHERN ARKANSAS. THE FRONT WILL MOVE BACK TO THE NORTH AS A
WARM FRONT MONDAY/MONDAY NIGHT AS UPPER RIDGING BUILDS OVER THE
WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO.

THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE LIKELY ON TUESDAY...AS LOW PRESSURE TO THE
WEST DRAGS A MUCH STRONGER FRONT INTO THE REGION. AHEAD OF THE FRONT...
TEMPERATURES WILL WARM INTO THE 60S TO MAYBE NEAR 70 IN THE
SOUTHEAST. HOWEVER...AFTER THE FRONTAL PASSAGE TUESDAY NIGHT...YOU
CAN KISS THE WARM WEATHER GOODBYE FOR A WHILE. MORE ON THAT FROM
OUR LONG TERM FORECASTER...

LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY
WITH TEMPERATURES WELL ABOVE NORMAL TO END THE SHORT TERM...THE LONG
TERM CONTINUES TO LOOK UNSETTLED TO START. BEGINNING TO SEE VERY
GOOD AGREEMENT BETWEEN THE MODELS AS THE GFS/ECMWF/GEM ALL AGREE
COLD FRONT WILL BE WELL INTO THE STATE BY 12Z WEDNESDAY AND THROUGH
THE STATE BY 18Z.

THE BIG CHANGE WITH THE MODELS SINCE YESTERDAY IS THE ABUNDANT
MOISTURE AVAILABLE BEHIND THE FRONT. WITH VERY COLD AIR FOLLOWING
THE FRONT...THIS WOULD INDICATE A MIX OF WINTRY PRECIPITATION WILL
BE POSSIBLE. IN THIS RESPECT...WHEN COMPARING MODELS FROM YESTERDAY
TO TODAY...THE GFS HAS BEGUN TO COME MORE IN LINE WITH THE ECMWF.

PRECIPITATION WILL COME TO AN END BY THURSDAY WITH DRY AND VERY COLD
AIR CONTINUING TO FILTER INTO THE REGION FOR THURSDAY AND THURSDAY
NIGHT. TEMPERATURES WILL REBOUND A BIT ON FRIDAY AS SOUTHERLY FLOW
RETURNS TO THE NATURAL STATE.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BATESVILLE AR     36  31  45  33 /  30  40  60  50
CAMDEN AR         44  38  52  41 /  20  20  60  80
HARRISON AR       30  29  41  28 /  60  50  60  50
HOT SPRINGS AR    38  35  47  37 /  30  30  60  70
LITTLE ROCK   AR  39  34  47  38 /  20  30  60  70
MONTICELLO AR     45  38  54  42 /  20  20  60  80
MOUNT IDA AR      37  35  46  37 /  40  30  60  70
MOUNTAIN HOME AR  32  29  42  29 /  60  50  60  50
NEWPORT AR        38  32  45  33 /  30  40  60  60
PINE BLUFF AR     41  36  50  39 /  20  20  60  80
RUSSELLVILLE AR   36  33  44  35 /  50  40  60  60
SEARCY AR         38  32  46  36 /  20  30  60  60
STUTTGART AR      40  34  48  38 /  20  30  60  80
&&

.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM CST SUNDAY FOR BAXTER-BOONE-
MARION.


WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL NOON CST TODAY FOR JOHNSON-LOGAN-
MONTGOMERY-NEWTON-POLK-POPE-SCOTT-SEARCY-YELL.

&&

$$


AVIATION...65





000
FXUS64 KLZK 281149
AFDLZK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
549 AM CST SAT FEB 28 2015

.AVIATION...

CONTINUED SNOW WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS PORTIONS OF NORTHERN
ARKANSAS THROUGH THE DAY TODAY. VISIBILITIES AT KHRO AND
KBPK...CONTINUE TO BOUNCE BETWEEN 2 AND 4SM. ELSEWHERE...VFR
CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE FOR MUCH OF THE DAY. TONIGHT RAIN WILL
MOVE INTO CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN TAF SITES...AS SNOW ACROSS THE
NORTHERN TAF SITES TRANSITIONS TO SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN.


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 328 AM CST SAT FEB 28 2015/

OVERVIEW...
THE PERIOD WILL BE QUITE ACTIVE...AS WE GET TO THE TIME OF THE
YEAR WHERE THE COLD AND WARM AIR BATTLE IT OUT. WE WILL GO FROM
WINTER WEATHER...TO RAIN...TO THUNDERSTORMS...BACK TO WINTER ALL
WITHIN ABOUT FIVE DAYS.

SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT
UPPER LEVEL IMPULSES WILL CONTINUE MOVING THROUGH THE REGION
TODAY. LOW PRESSURE OVER THE GULF WILL CONTINUE TO SEND LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE INTO THE REGION. THE RESULTING INTERACTION WILL KEEP
PRECIP CHANCES OVER THE AREA THROUGH THE DAY...WHICH WILL REMAIN
THE HIGHEST IN THE WEST AND WHERE THE DEEPEST MOISTURE IS.

PRECIPITATION TYPE WILL BE ALL SNOW THROUGH THE MORNING...BEFORE
BECOMING RAIN IN THE CENTRAL AND SOUTH DURING THE AFTERNOON AS THE
LOW LEVELS WARM. PRECIP SHOULD STAY ALL SNOW IN THE NORTHWEST AND
NORTH.

HAVE CONTINUED THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN THE WEST THROUGH
NOON. ADDITIONAL SNOWFALL SHOULD BE LIGHT...BUT A FEW PLACES COULD
PICK UP AN ADDITIONAL INCH OR SO. EXTENDED THE ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM
ON SUNDAY IN THE FAR NORTH...AS SNOW WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE
THIS EVENING INTERMITTENTLY...AND WILL LIKELY CHANGE TO A FREEZING
RAIN/SLEET MIX AROUND OR AFTER MIDNIGHT. ADDITIONAL SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS OF ONE TO THREE INCHES WILL BE POSSIBLE. OVER ALL
QPF WILL BE LIGHT...SO ANY ICE ACCUMULATION LATE TONIGHT/EARLY
SUNDAY SHOULD BE LIGHT AS WELL...BUT IT USUALLY WILL NOT TAKE MUCH
TO CAUSE PROBLEMS.

WINDS SHOULD BECOME SOUTHERLY/SOUTHEASTERLY ON SUNDAY AHEAD OF AN
APPROACHING FRONTAL BOUNDARY. RAIN WILL BECOME LIKELY SUNDAY AND
SUNDAY NIGHT AS THE FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE REGION AND STALLS OUT
NEAR SOUTHERN ARKANSAS. THE FRONT WILL MOVE BACK TO THE NORTH AS A
WARM FRONT MONDAY/MONDAY NIGHT AS UPPER RIDGING BUILDS OVER THE
WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO.

THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE LIKELY ON TUESDAY...AS LOW PRESSURE TO THE
WEST DRAGS A MUCH STRONGER FRONT INTO THE REGION. AHEAD OF THE FRONT...
TEMPERATURES WILL WARM INTO THE 60S TO MAYBE NEAR 70 IN THE
SOUTHEAST. HOWEVER...AFTER THE FRONTAL PASSAGE TUESDAY NIGHT...YOU
CAN KISS THE WARM WEATHER GOODBYE FOR A WHILE. MORE ON THAT FROM
OUR LONG TERM FORECASTER...

LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY
WITH TEMPERATURES WELL ABOVE NORMAL TO END THE SHORT TERM...THE LONG
TERM CONTINUES TO LOOK UNSETTLED TO START. BEGINNING TO SEE VERY
GOOD AGREEMENT BETWEEN THE MODELS AS THE GFS/ECMWF/GEM ALL AGREE
COLD FRONT WILL BE WELL INTO THE STATE BY 12Z WEDNESDAY AND THROUGH
THE STATE BY 18Z.

THE BIG CHANGE WITH THE MODELS SINCE YESTERDAY IS THE ABUNDANT
MOISTURE AVAILABLE BEHIND THE FRONT. WITH VERY COLD AIR FOLLOWING
THE FRONT...THIS WOULD INDICATE A MIX OF WINTRY PRECIPITATION WILL
BE POSSIBLE. IN THIS RESPECT...WHEN COMPARING MODELS FROM YESTERDAY
TO TODAY...THE GFS HAS BEGUN TO COME MORE IN LINE WITH THE ECMWF.

PRECIPITATION WILL COME TO AN END BY THURSDAY WITH DRY AND VERY COLD
AIR CONTINUING TO FILTER INTO THE REGION FOR THURSDAY AND THURSDAY
NIGHT. TEMPERATURES WILL REBOUND A BIT ON FRIDAY AS SOUTHERLY FLOW
RETURNS TO THE NATURAL STATE.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BATESVILLE AR     36  31  45  33 /  30  40  60  50
CAMDEN AR         44  38  52  41 /  20  20  60  80
HARRISON AR       30  29  41  28 /  60  50  60  50
HOT SPRINGS AR    38  35  47  37 /  30  30  60  70
LITTLE ROCK   AR  39  34  47  38 /  20  30  60  70
MONTICELLO AR     45  38  54  42 /  20  20  60  80
MOUNT IDA AR      37  35  46  37 /  40  30  60  70
MOUNTAIN HOME AR  32  29  42  29 /  60  50  60  50
NEWPORT AR        38  32  45  33 /  30  40  60  60
PINE BLUFF AR     41  36  50  39 /  20  20  60  80
RUSSELLVILLE AR   36  33  44  35 /  50  40  60  60
SEARCY AR         38  32  46  36 /  20  30  60  60
STUTTGART AR      40  34  48  38 /  20  30  60  80
&&

.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM CST SUNDAY FOR BAXTER-BOONE-
MARION.


WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL NOON CST TODAY FOR JOHNSON-LOGAN-
MONTGOMERY-NEWTON-POLK-POPE-SCOTT-SEARCY-YELL.

&&

$$


AVIATION...65





000
FXUS64 KLZK 281149
AFDLZK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
549 AM CST SAT FEB 28 2015

.AVIATION...

CONTINUED SNOW WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS PORTIONS OF NORTHERN
ARKANSAS THROUGH THE DAY TODAY. VISIBILITIES AT KHRO AND
KBPK...CONTINUE TO BOUNCE BETWEEN 2 AND 4SM. ELSEWHERE...VFR
CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE FOR MUCH OF THE DAY. TONIGHT RAIN WILL
MOVE INTO CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN TAF SITES...AS SNOW ACROSS THE
NORTHERN TAF SITES TRANSITIONS TO SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN.


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 328 AM CST SAT FEB 28 2015/

OVERVIEW...
THE PERIOD WILL BE QUITE ACTIVE...AS WE GET TO THE TIME OF THE
YEAR WHERE THE COLD AND WARM AIR BATTLE IT OUT. WE WILL GO FROM
WINTER WEATHER...TO RAIN...TO THUNDERSTORMS...BACK TO WINTER ALL
WITHIN ABOUT FIVE DAYS.

SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT
UPPER LEVEL IMPULSES WILL CONTINUE MOVING THROUGH THE REGION
TODAY. LOW PRESSURE OVER THE GULF WILL CONTINUE TO SEND LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE INTO THE REGION. THE RESULTING INTERACTION WILL KEEP
PRECIP CHANCES OVER THE AREA THROUGH THE DAY...WHICH WILL REMAIN
THE HIGHEST IN THE WEST AND WHERE THE DEEPEST MOISTURE IS.

PRECIPITATION TYPE WILL BE ALL SNOW THROUGH THE MORNING...BEFORE
BECOMING RAIN IN THE CENTRAL AND SOUTH DURING THE AFTERNOON AS THE
LOW LEVELS WARM. PRECIP SHOULD STAY ALL SNOW IN THE NORTHWEST AND
NORTH.

HAVE CONTINUED THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN THE WEST THROUGH
NOON. ADDITIONAL SNOWFALL SHOULD BE LIGHT...BUT A FEW PLACES COULD
PICK UP AN ADDITIONAL INCH OR SO. EXTENDED THE ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM
ON SUNDAY IN THE FAR NORTH...AS SNOW WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE
THIS EVENING INTERMITTENTLY...AND WILL LIKELY CHANGE TO A FREEZING
RAIN/SLEET MIX AROUND OR AFTER MIDNIGHT. ADDITIONAL SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS OF ONE TO THREE INCHES WILL BE POSSIBLE. OVER ALL
QPF WILL BE LIGHT...SO ANY ICE ACCUMULATION LATE TONIGHT/EARLY
SUNDAY SHOULD BE LIGHT AS WELL...BUT IT USUALLY WILL NOT TAKE MUCH
TO CAUSE PROBLEMS.

WINDS SHOULD BECOME SOUTHERLY/SOUTHEASTERLY ON SUNDAY AHEAD OF AN
APPROACHING FRONTAL BOUNDARY. RAIN WILL BECOME LIKELY SUNDAY AND
SUNDAY NIGHT AS THE FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE REGION AND STALLS OUT
NEAR SOUTHERN ARKANSAS. THE FRONT WILL MOVE BACK TO THE NORTH AS A
WARM FRONT MONDAY/MONDAY NIGHT AS UPPER RIDGING BUILDS OVER THE
WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO.

THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE LIKELY ON TUESDAY...AS LOW PRESSURE TO THE
WEST DRAGS A MUCH STRONGER FRONT INTO THE REGION. AHEAD OF THE FRONT...
TEMPERATURES WILL WARM INTO THE 60S TO MAYBE NEAR 70 IN THE
SOUTHEAST. HOWEVER...AFTER THE FRONTAL PASSAGE TUESDAY NIGHT...YOU
CAN KISS THE WARM WEATHER GOODBYE FOR A WHILE. MORE ON THAT FROM
OUR LONG TERM FORECASTER...

LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY
WITH TEMPERATURES WELL ABOVE NORMAL TO END THE SHORT TERM...THE LONG
TERM CONTINUES TO LOOK UNSETTLED TO START. BEGINNING TO SEE VERY
GOOD AGREEMENT BETWEEN THE MODELS AS THE GFS/ECMWF/GEM ALL AGREE
COLD FRONT WILL BE WELL INTO THE STATE BY 12Z WEDNESDAY AND THROUGH
THE STATE BY 18Z.

THE BIG CHANGE WITH THE MODELS SINCE YESTERDAY IS THE ABUNDANT
MOISTURE AVAILABLE BEHIND THE FRONT. WITH VERY COLD AIR FOLLOWING
THE FRONT...THIS WOULD INDICATE A MIX OF WINTRY PRECIPITATION WILL
BE POSSIBLE. IN THIS RESPECT...WHEN COMPARING MODELS FROM YESTERDAY
TO TODAY...THE GFS HAS BEGUN TO COME MORE IN LINE WITH THE ECMWF.

PRECIPITATION WILL COME TO AN END BY THURSDAY WITH DRY AND VERY COLD
AIR CONTINUING TO FILTER INTO THE REGION FOR THURSDAY AND THURSDAY
NIGHT. TEMPERATURES WILL REBOUND A BIT ON FRIDAY AS SOUTHERLY FLOW
RETURNS TO THE NATURAL STATE.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BATESVILLE AR     36  31  45  33 /  30  40  60  50
CAMDEN AR         44  38  52  41 /  20  20  60  80
HARRISON AR       30  29  41  28 /  60  50  60  50
HOT SPRINGS AR    38  35  47  37 /  30  30  60  70
LITTLE ROCK   AR  39  34  47  38 /  20  30  60  70
MONTICELLO AR     45  38  54  42 /  20  20  60  80
MOUNT IDA AR      37  35  46  37 /  40  30  60  70
MOUNTAIN HOME AR  32  29  42  29 /  60  50  60  50
NEWPORT AR        38  32  45  33 /  30  40  60  60
PINE BLUFF AR     41  36  50  39 /  20  20  60  80
RUSSELLVILLE AR   36  33  44  35 /  50  40  60  60
SEARCY AR         38  32  46  36 /  20  30  60  60
STUTTGART AR      40  34  48  38 /  20  30  60  80
&&

.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM CST SUNDAY FOR BAXTER-BOONE-
MARION.


WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL NOON CST TODAY FOR JOHNSON-LOGAN-
MONTGOMERY-NEWTON-POLK-POPE-SCOTT-SEARCY-YELL.

&&

$$


AVIATION...65






000
FXUS64 KLZK 280928
AFDLZK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
328 AM CST SAT FEB 28 2015

.OVERVIEW...
THE PERIOD WILL BE QUITE ACTIVE...AS WE GET TO THE TIME OF THE
YEAR WHERE THE COLD AND WARM AIR BATTLE IT OUT. WE WILL GO FROM
WINTER WEATHER...TO RAIN...TO THUNDERSTORMS...BACK TO WINTER ALL
WITHIN ABOUT FIVE DAYS.
&&

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT
UPPER LEVEL IMPULSES WILL CONTINUE MOVING THROUGH THE REGION
TODAY. LOW PRESSURE OVER THE GULF WILL CONTINUE TO SEND LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE INTO THE REGION. THE RESULTING INTERACTION WILL KEEP
PRECIP CHANCES OVER THE AREA THROUGH THE DAY...WHICH WILL REMAIN
THE HIGHEST IN THE WEST AND WHERE THE DEEPEST MOISTURE IS.

PRECIPITATION TYPE WILL BE ALL SNOW THROUGH THE MORNING...BEFORE
BECOMING RAIN IN THE CENTRAL AND SOUTH DURING THE AFTERNOON AS THE
LOW LEVELS WARM. PRECIP SHOULD STAY ALL SNOW IN THE NORTHWEST AND
NORTH.

HAVE CONTINUED THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN THE WEST THROUGH
NOON. ADDITIONAL SNOWFALL SHOULD BE LIGHT...BUT A FEW PLACES COULD
PICK UP AN ADDITIONAL INCH OR SO. EXTENDED THE ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM
ON SUNDAY IN THE FAR NORTH...AS SNOW WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE
THIS EVENING INTERMITTENTLY...AND WILL LIKELY CHANGE TO A FREEZING
RAIN/SLEET MIX AROUND OR AFTER MIDNIGHT. ADDITIONAL SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS OF ONE TO THREE INCHES WILL BE POSSIBLE. OVER ALL
QPF WILL BE LIGHT...SO ANY ICE ACCUMULATION LATE TONIGHT/EARLY
SUNDAY SHOULD BE LIGHT AS WELL...BUT IT USUALLY WILL NOT TAKE MUCH
TO CAUSE PROBLEMS.

WINDS SHOULD BECOME SOUTHERLY/SOUTHEASTERLY ON SUNDAY AHEAD OF AN
APPROACHING FRONTAL BOUNDARY. RAIN WILL BECOME LIKELY SUNDAY AND
SUNDAY NIGHT AS THE FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE REGION AND STALLS OUT
NEAR SOUTHERN ARKANSAS. THE FRONT WILL MOVE BACK TO THE NORTH AS A
WARM FRONT MONDAY/MONDAY NIGHT AS UPPER RIDGING BUILDS OVER THE
WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO.

THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE LIKELY ON TUESDAY...AS LOW PRESSURE TO THE
WEST DRAGS A MUCH STRONGER FRONT INTO THE REGION. AHEAD OF THE FRONT...
TEMPERATURES WILL WARM INTO THE 60S TO MAYBE NEAR 70 IN THE
SOUTHEAST. HOWEVER...AFTER THE FRONTAL PASSAGE TUESDAY NIGHT...YOU
CAN KISS THE WARM WEATHER GOODBYE FOR A WHILE. MORE ON THAT FROM
OUR LONG TERM FORECASTER...
&&

.LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY
WITH TEMPERATURES WELL ABOVE NORMAL TO END THE SHORT TERM...THE LONG
TERM CONTINUES TO LOOK UNSETTLED TO START. BEGINNING TO SEE VERY
GOOD AGREEMENT BETWEEN THE MODELS AS THE GFS/ECMWF/GEM ALL AGREE
COLD FRONT WILL BE WELL INTO THE STATE BY 12Z WEDNESDAY AND THROUGH
THE STATE BY 18Z.

THE BIG CHANGE WITH THE MODELS SINCE YESTERDAY IS THE ABUNDANT
MOISTURE AVAILABLE BEHIND THE FRONT. WITH VERY COLD AIR FOLLOWING
THE FRONT...THIS WOULD INDICATE A MIX OF WINTRY PRECIPITATION WILL
BE POSSIBLE. IN THIS RESPECT...WHEN COMPARING MODELS FROM YESTERDAY
TO TODAY...THE GFS HAS BEGUN TO COME MORE IN LINE WITH THE ECMWF.

PRECIPITATION WILL COME TO AN END BY THURSDAY WITH DRY AND VERY COLD
AIR CONTINUING TO FILTER INTO THE REGION FOR THURSDAY AND THURSDAY
NIGHT. TEMPERATURES WILL REBOUND A BIT ON FRIDAY AS SOUTHERLY FLOW
RETURNS TO THE NATURAL STATE.
&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BATESVILLE AR     36  31  45  33 /  30  40  60  50
CAMDEN AR         44  38  52  41 /  20  20  60  80
HARRISON AR       30  29  41  28 /  60  50  60  50
HOT SPRINGS AR    38  35  47  37 /  30  30  60  70
LITTLE ROCK   AR  39  34  47  38 /  20  30  60  70
MONTICELLO AR     45  38  54  42 /  20  20  60  80
MOUNT IDA AR      37  35  46  37 /  40  30  60  70
MOUNTAIN HOME AR  32  29  42  29 /  60  50  60  50
NEWPORT AR        38  32  45  33 /  30  40  60  60
PINE BLUFF AR     41  36  50  39 /  20  20  60  80
RUSSELLVILLE AR   36  33  44  35 /  50  40  60  60
SEARCY AR         38  32  46  36 /  20  30  60  60
STUTTGART AR      40  34  48  38 /  20  30  60  80
&&

.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM CST SUNDAY FOR BAXTER-BOONE-
MARION.

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL NOON CST TODAY FOR JOHNSON-LOGAN-
MONTGOMERY-NEWTON-POLK-POPE-SCOTT-SEARCY-YELL.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...57 / LONG TERM...65






000
FXUS64 KLZK 280548
AFDLZK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
1148 PM CST FRI FEB 27 2015

.AVIATION...

A WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE CONTINUES TO GENERATE SNOW ACROSS
THE NORTHERN TAF SITES BUT IT IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH A
GOOD PORTION OF THE OVERNIGHT. THE NEXT DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE TO THE
NORTHWEST OF THE STATE ON SATURDAY WITH ADDITIONAL LIGHT SNOW
POSSIBLE FOR KHRO..KBPK AND POSSIBLY KHOT. OTHERWISE WIDESPREAD
CLOUDS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH GENERALLY LIGHT EAST
TO NORTHEAST WINDS. MVFR TO OCCASIONAL VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
ACROSS THE NORTH TO VFR TO OCCASIONAL MVFR CONDITIONS FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE AREA.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 600 PM CST FRI FEB 27 2015/

AVIATION...
WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL BRING SOME LIGHT SNOW TO THE
NORTHERN TAFS THIS EVENING. A SECOND DISTURBANCE WILL BRING
ANOTHER CHANCE OF LIGHT SNOW LATE IN THE PERIOD TO GENERALLY THE
SAME PLACES. WIDESPREAD MVFR TO IFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS
THE NORTH WITH MVFR TO VFR CONDITIONS OVER THE SOUTH. EAST TO
SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL GENERALLY PREVAIL.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 343 PM CST FRI FEB 27 2015/

SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT

SNOW DEVELOPED ACROSS OKLAHOMA TODAY...BUT DRIER AIR NEAR THE
SURFACE HAS ALLOWED PRECIPITATION TO EVAPORATE BEFORE REACHING THE
GROUND. MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO SATURATE THE ATMOSPHERE THIS
AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT...WITH SNOW POSSIBLE MAINLY ACROSS THE
OUACHITAS. SNOW AMOUNTS WILL GENERALLY LIGHT...HALF AN INCH OR
LESS...AND TAPER OFF AFTER MIDNIGHT.

THERE WILL BE A BREAK IN PRECIPITATION TONIGHT...BEFORE THE NEXT
WAVE MOVES OVER THE REGION SATURDAY AFTERNOON. WITH DEWPOINTS MUCH
HIGHER AND UPPER JET PROVIDING LIFT...EXPECT SNOW TO ACCUMULATE IN
AREAS NEAR THE MISSOURI BORDER. AS OF NOW...ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE
AROUND AN INCH OF LESS...BUT WILL NEED TO MONITOR LATEST GUIDANCE IF
ANY WINTER WEATHER HEADLINES ARE NEEDED.

PRECIPITATION WILL CONTINUE SATURDAY NIGHT...AND AS TEMPERATURES
WARM...THERE WILL BE A CHANGEOVER TO LIGHT FREEZING RAIN ACROSS THE
NORTH. TEMPERATURES WILL WARM ABOVE FREEZING AREA WIDE SUNDAY
MORNING.

AS COLD FRONT MOVES INTO THE REGION AND STALLS SUNDAY INTO
MONDAY...SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE.

LONG TERM...TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY

THE PATTERN WILL BE ACTIVE IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD...ESPECIALLY
EARLY. IT WILL WARM UP MARKEDLY ON TUESDAY AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT
ARRIVING FROM THE PLAINS. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BECOME
LIKELY AS THE FRONT MOVES INTO THE REGION.

THE FRONT MAY STALL FOR A TIME TUESDAY NIGHT/WEDNESDAY
MORNING...WITH SHOWERS/A FEW THUNDERSTORMS REMAINING POSSIBLE MAINLY
OVER THE SOUTHEAST HALF OF ARKANSAS.

A SECONDARY FRONT WILL SURGE ACROSS THE AREA WEDNESDAY...WITH
THE BRIEF PERIOD OF SPRING COMING TO A CLOSE. WINTER WILL COME
BACK...WITH TEMPERATURES ON THE WAY DOWN. CHANCES FOR RAIN REMAIN
IN THE FORECAST...WITH PRECIPITATION ENDING AS A FEW SNOWFLAKES
WEDNESDAY EVENING. THIS DOES NOT LOOK LIKE ANYTHING MAJOR.

THE PERIOD WILL END WITH CLOUDS DECREASING ON THURSDAY...AND BELOW
NORMAL TEMPERATURES THURSDAY/FRIDAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BATESVILLE AR     18  37  32  46 /  20  20  30  60
CAMDEN AR         25  44  38  55 /  20  10  20  60
HARRISON AR       15  31  30  42 /  40  60  50  60
HOT SPRINGS AR    23  38  35  47 /  30  20  20  60
LITTLE ROCK   AR  23  39  34  48 /  20  20  20  60
MONTICELLO AR     25  45  38  56 /  20  10  10  60
MOUNT IDA AR      20  38  35  46 /  50  20  30  60
MOUNTAIN HOME AR  16  32  30  43 /  30  50  40  60
NEWPORT AR        20  38  33  46 /  20  20  30  60
PINE BLUFF AR     24  42  36  52 /  20  10  20  60
RUSSELLVILLE AR   20  36  33  45 /  50  20  30  60
SEARCY AR         21  39  32  47 /  20  20  30  60
STUTTGART AR      24  40  35  49 /  20  10  20  60
&&

.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM CST SATURDAY FOR BAXTER-BOONE-
JOHNSON-LOGAN-MARION-MONTGOMERY-NEWTON-POLK-POPE-SCOTT-SEARCY-
YELL.

&&

$$


AVIATION...65






000
FXUS64 KLZK 280548
AFDLZK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
1148 PM CST FRI FEB 27 2015

.AVIATION...

A WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE CONTINUES TO GENERATE SNOW ACROSS
THE NORTHERN TAF SITES BUT IT IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH A
GOOD PORTION OF THE OVERNIGHT. THE NEXT DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE TO THE
NORTHWEST OF THE STATE ON SATURDAY WITH ADDITIONAL LIGHT SNOW
POSSIBLE FOR KHRO..KBPK AND POSSIBLY KHOT. OTHERWISE WIDESPREAD
CLOUDS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH GENERALLY LIGHT EAST
TO NORTHEAST WINDS. MVFR TO OCCASIONAL VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
ACROSS THE NORTH TO VFR TO OCCASIONAL MVFR CONDITIONS FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE AREA.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 600 PM CST FRI FEB 27 2015/

AVIATION...
WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL BRING SOME LIGHT SNOW TO THE
NORTHERN TAFS THIS EVENING. A SECOND DISTURBANCE WILL BRING
ANOTHER CHANCE OF LIGHT SNOW LATE IN THE PERIOD TO GENERALLY THE
SAME PLACES. WIDESPREAD MVFR TO IFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS
THE NORTH WITH MVFR TO VFR CONDITIONS OVER THE SOUTH. EAST TO
SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL GENERALLY PREVAIL.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 343 PM CST FRI FEB 27 2015/

SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT

SNOW DEVELOPED ACROSS OKLAHOMA TODAY...BUT DRIER AIR NEAR THE
SURFACE HAS ALLOWED PRECIPITATION TO EVAPORATE BEFORE REACHING THE
GROUND. MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO SATURATE THE ATMOSPHERE THIS
AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT...WITH SNOW POSSIBLE MAINLY ACROSS THE
OUACHITAS. SNOW AMOUNTS WILL GENERALLY LIGHT...HALF AN INCH OR
LESS...AND TAPER OFF AFTER MIDNIGHT.

THERE WILL BE A BREAK IN PRECIPITATION TONIGHT...BEFORE THE NEXT
WAVE MOVES OVER THE REGION SATURDAY AFTERNOON. WITH DEWPOINTS MUCH
HIGHER AND UPPER JET PROVIDING LIFT...EXPECT SNOW TO ACCUMULATE IN
AREAS NEAR THE MISSOURI BORDER. AS OF NOW...ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE
AROUND AN INCH OF LESS...BUT WILL NEED TO MONITOR LATEST GUIDANCE IF
ANY WINTER WEATHER HEADLINES ARE NEEDED.

PRECIPITATION WILL CONTINUE SATURDAY NIGHT...AND AS TEMPERATURES
WARM...THERE WILL BE A CHANGEOVER TO LIGHT FREEZING RAIN ACROSS THE
NORTH. TEMPERATURES WILL WARM ABOVE FREEZING AREA WIDE SUNDAY
MORNING.

AS COLD FRONT MOVES INTO THE REGION AND STALLS SUNDAY INTO
MONDAY...SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE.

LONG TERM...TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY

THE PATTERN WILL BE ACTIVE IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD...ESPECIALLY
EARLY. IT WILL WARM UP MARKEDLY ON TUESDAY AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT
ARRIVING FROM THE PLAINS. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BECOME
LIKELY AS THE FRONT MOVES INTO THE REGION.

THE FRONT MAY STALL FOR A TIME TUESDAY NIGHT/WEDNESDAY
MORNING...WITH SHOWERS/A FEW THUNDERSTORMS REMAINING POSSIBLE MAINLY
OVER THE SOUTHEAST HALF OF ARKANSAS.

A SECONDARY FRONT WILL SURGE ACROSS THE AREA WEDNESDAY...WITH
THE BRIEF PERIOD OF SPRING COMING TO A CLOSE. WINTER WILL COME
BACK...WITH TEMPERATURES ON THE WAY DOWN. CHANCES FOR RAIN REMAIN
IN THE FORECAST...WITH PRECIPITATION ENDING AS A FEW SNOWFLAKES
WEDNESDAY EVENING. THIS DOES NOT LOOK LIKE ANYTHING MAJOR.

THE PERIOD WILL END WITH CLOUDS DECREASING ON THURSDAY...AND BELOW
NORMAL TEMPERATURES THURSDAY/FRIDAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BATESVILLE AR     18  37  32  46 /  20  20  30  60
CAMDEN AR         25  44  38  55 /  20  10  20  60
HARRISON AR       15  31  30  42 /  40  60  50  60
HOT SPRINGS AR    23  38  35  47 /  30  20  20  60
LITTLE ROCK   AR  23  39  34  48 /  20  20  20  60
MONTICELLO AR     25  45  38  56 /  20  10  10  60
MOUNT IDA AR      20  38  35  46 /  50  20  30  60
MOUNTAIN HOME AR  16  32  30  43 /  30  50  40  60
NEWPORT AR        20  38  33  46 /  20  20  30  60
PINE BLUFF AR     24  42  36  52 /  20  10  20  60
RUSSELLVILLE AR   20  36  33  45 /  50  20  30  60
SEARCY AR         21  39  32  47 /  20  20  30  60
STUTTGART AR      24  40  35  49 /  20  10  20  60
&&

.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM CST SATURDAY FOR BAXTER-BOONE-
JOHNSON-LOGAN-MARION-MONTGOMERY-NEWTON-POLK-POPE-SCOTT-SEARCY-
YELL.

&&

$$


AVIATION...65





000
FXUS64 KLZK 280548
AFDLZK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
1148 PM CST FRI FEB 27 2015

.AVIATION...

A WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE CONTINUES TO GENERATE SNOW ACROSS
THE NORTHERN TAF SITES BUT IT IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH A
GOOD PORTION OF THE OVERNIGHT. THE NEXT DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE TO THE
NORTHWEST OF THE STATE ON SATURDAY WITH ADDITIONAL LIGHT SNOW
POSSIBLE FOR KHRO..KBPK AND POSSIBLY KHOT. OTHERWISE WIDESPREAD
CLOUDS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH GENERALLY LIGHT EAST
TO NORTHEAST WINDS. MVFR TO OCCASIONAL VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
ACROSS THE NORTH TO VFR TO OCCASIONAL MVFR CONDITIONS FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE AREA.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 600 PM CST FRI FEB 27 2015/

AVIATION...
WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL BRING SOME LIGHT SNOW TO THE
NORTHERN TAFS THIS EVENING. A SECOND DISTURBANCE WILL BRING
ANOTHER CHANCE OF LIGHT SNOW LATE IN THE PERIOD TO GENERALLY THE
SAME PLACES. WIDESPREAD MVFR TO IFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS
THE NORTH WITH MVFR TO VFR CONDITIONS OVER THE SOUTH. EAST TO
SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL GENERALLY PREVAIL.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 343 PM CST FRI FEB 27 2015/

SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT

SNOW DEVELOPED ACROSS OKLAHOMA TODAY...BUT DRIER AIR NEAR THE
SURFACE HAS ALLOWED PRECIPITATION TO EVAPORATE BEFORE REACHING THE
GROUND. MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO SATURATE THE ATMOSPHERE THIS
AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT...WITH SNOW POSSIBLE MAINLY ACROSS THE
OUACHITAS. SNOW AMOUNTS WILL GENERALLY LIGHT...HALF AN INCH OR
LESS...AND TAPER OFF AFTER MIDNIGHT.

THERE WILL BE A BREAK IN PRECIPITATION TONIGHT...BEFORE THE NEXT
WAVE MOVES OVER THE REGION SATURDAY AFTERNOON. WITH DEWPOINTS MUCH
HIGHER AND UPPER JET PROVIDING LIFT...EXPECT SNOW TO ACCUMULATE IN
AREAS NEAR THE MISSOURI BORDER. AS OF NOW...ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE
AROUND AN INCH OF LESS...BUT WILL NEED TO MONITOR LATEST GUIDANCE IF
ANY WINTER WEATHER HEADLINES ARE NEEDED.

PRECIPITATION WILL CONTINUE SATURDAY NIGHT...AND AS TEMPERATURES
WARM...THERE WILL BE A CHANGEOVER TO LIGHT FREEZING RAIN ACROSS THE
NORTH. TEMPERATURES WILL WARM ABOVE FREEZING AREA WIDE SUNDAY
MORNING.

AS COLD FRONT MOVES INTO THE REGION AND STALLS SUNDAY INTO
MONDAY...SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE.

LONG TERM...TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY

THE PATTERN WILL BE ACTIVE IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD...ESPECIALLY
EARLY. IT WILL WARM UP MARKEDLY ON TUESDAY AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT
ARRIVING FROM THE PLAINS. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BECOME
LIKELY AS THE FRONT MOVES INTO THE REGION.

THE FRONT MAY STALL FOR A TIME TUESDAY NIGHT/WEDNESDAY
MORNING...WITH SHOWERS/A FEW THUNDERSTORMS REMAINING POSSIBLE MAINLY
OVER THE SOUTHEAST HALF OF ARKANSAS.

A SECONDARY FRONT WILL SURGE ACROSS THE AREA WEDNESDAY...WITH
THE BRIEF PERIOD OF SPRING COMING TO A CLOSE. WINTER WILL COME
BACK...WITH TEMPERATURES ON THE WAY DOWN. CHANCES FOR RAIN REMAIN
IN THE FORECAST...WITH PRECIPITATION ENDING AS A FEW SNOWFLAKES
WEDNESDAY EVENING. THIS DOES NOT LOOK LIKE ANYTHING MAJOR.

THE PERIOD WILL END WITH CLOUDS DECREASING ON THURSDAY...AND BELOW
NORMAL TEMPERATURES THURSDAY/FRIDAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BATESVILLE AR     18  37  32  46 /  20  20  30  60
CAMDEN AR         25  44  38  55 /  20  10  20  60
HARRISON AR       15  31  30  42 /  40  60  50  60
HOT SPRINGS AR    23  38  35  47 /  30  20  20  60
LITTLE ROCK   AR  23  39  34  48 /  20  20  20  60
MONTICELLO AR     25  45  38  56 /  20  10  10  60
MOUNT IDA AR      20  38  35  46 /  50  20  30  60
MOUNTAIN HOME AR  16  32  30  43 /  30  50  40  60
NEWPORT AR        20  38  33  46 /  20  20  30  60
PINE BLUFF AR     24  42  36  52 /  20  10  20  60
RUSSELLVILLE AR   20  36  33  45 /  50  20  30  60
SEARCY AR         21  39  32  47 /  20  20  30  60
STUTTGART AR      24  40  35  49 /  20  10  20  60
&&

.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM CST SATURDAY FOR BAXTER-BOONE-
JOHNSON-LOGAN-MARION-MONTGOMERY-NEWTON-POLK-POPE-SCOTT-SEARCY-
YELL.

&&

$$


AVIATION...65






000
FXUS64 KLZK 280548
AFDLZK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
1148 PM CST FRI FEB 27 2015

.AVIATION...

A WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE CONTINUES TO GENERATE SNOW ACROSS
THE NORTHERN TAF SITES BUT IT IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH A
GOOD PORTION OF THE OVERNIGHT. THE NEXT DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE TO THE
NORTHWEST OF THE STATE ON SATURDAY WITH ADDITIONAL LIGHT SNOW
POSSIBLE FOR KHRO..KBPK AND POSSIBLY KHOT. OTHERWISE WIDESPREAD
CLOUDS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH GENERALLY LIGHT EAST
TO NORTHEAST WINDS. MVFR TO OCCASIONAL VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
ACROSS THE NORTH TO VFR TO OCCASIONAL MVFR CONDITIONS FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE AREA.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 600 PM CST FRI FEB 27 2015/

AVIATION...
WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL BRING SOME LIGHT SNOW TO THE
NORTHERN TAFS THIS EVENING. A SECOND DISTURBANCE WILL BRING
ANOTHER CHANCE OF LIGHT SNOW LATE IN THE PERIOD TO GENERALLY THE
SAME PLACES. WIDESPREAD MVFR TO IFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS
THE NORTH WITH MVFR TO VFR CONDITIONS OVER THE SOUTH. EAST TO
SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL GENERALLY PREVAIL.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 343 PM CST FRI FEB 27 2015/

SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT

SNOW DEVELOPED ACROSS OKLAHOMA TODAY...BUT DRIER AIR NEAR THE
SURFACE HAS ALLOWED PRECIPITATION TO EVAPORATE BEFORE REACHING THE
GROUND. MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO SATURATE THE ATMOSPHERE THIS
AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT...WITH SNOW POSSIBLE MAINLY ACROSS THE
OUACHITAS. SNOW AMOUNTS WILL GENERALLY LIGHT...HALF AN INCH OR
LESS...AND TAPER OFF AFTER MIDNIGHT.

THERE WILL BE A BREAK IN PRECIPITATION TONIGHT...BEFORE THE NEXT
WAVE MOVES OVER THE REGION SATURDAY AFTERNOON. WITH DEWPOINTS MUCH
HIGHER AND UPPER JET PROVIDING LIFT...EXPECT SNOW TO ACCUMULATE IN
AREAS NEAR THE MISSOURI BORDER. AS OF NOW...ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE
AROUND AN INCH OF LESS...BUT WILL NEED TO MONITOR LATEST GUIDANCE IF
ANY WINTER WEATHER HEADLINES ARE NEEDED.

PRECIPITATION WILL CONTINUE SATURDAY NIGHT...AND AS TEMPERATURES
WARM...THERE WILL BE A CHANGEOVER TO LIGHT FREEZING RAIN ACROSS THE
NORTH. TEMPERATURES WILL WARM ABOVE FREEZING AREA WIDE SUNDAY
MORNING.

AS COLD FRONT MOVES INTO THE REGION AND STALLS SUNDAY INTO
MONDAY...SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE.

LONG TERM...TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY

THE PATTERN WILL BE ACTIVE IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD...ESPECIALLY
EARLY. IT WILL WARM UP MARKEDLY ON TUESDAY AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT
ARRIVING FROM THE PLAINS. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BECOME
LIKELY AS THE FRONT MOVES INTO THE REGION.

THE FRONT MAY STALL FOR A TIME TUESDAY NIGHT/WEDNESDAY
MORNING...WITH SHOWERS/A FEW THUNDERSTORMS REMAINING POSSIBLE MAINLY
OVER THE SOUTHEAST HALF OF ARKANSAS.

A SECONDARY FRONT WILL SURGE ACROSS THE AREA WEDNESDAY...WITH
THE BRIEF PERIOD OF SPRING COMING TO A CLOSE. WINTER WILL COME
BACK...WITH TEMPERATURES ON THE WAY DOWN. CHANCES FOR RAIN REMAIN
IN THE FORECAST...WITH PRECIPITATION ENDING AS A FEW SNOWFLAKES
WEDNESDAY EVENING. THIS DOES NOT LOOK LIKE ANYTHING MAJOR.

THE PERIOD WILL END WITH CLOUDS DECREASING ON THURSDAY...AND BELOW
NORMAL TEMPERATURES THURSDAY/FRIDAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BATESVILLE AR     18  37  32  46 /  20  20  30  60
CAMDEN AR         25  44  38  55 /  20  10  20  60
HARRISON AR       15  31  30  42 /  40  60  50  60
HOT SPRINGS AR    23  38  35  47 /  30  20  20  60
LITTLE ROCK   AR  23  39  34  48 /  20  20  20  60
MONTICELLO AR     25  45  38  56 /  20  10  10  60
MOUNT IDA AR      20  38  35  46 /  50  20  30  60
MOUNTAIN HOME AR  16  32  30  43 /  30  50  40  60
NEWPORT AR        20  38  33  46 /  20  20  30  60
PINE BLUFF AR     24  42  36  52 /  20  10  20  60
RUSSELLVILLE AR   20  36  33  45 /  50  20  30  60
SEARCY AR         21  39  32  47 /  20  20  30  60
STUTTGART AR      24  40  35  49 /  20  10  20  60
&&

.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM CST SATURDAY FOR BAXTER-BOONE-
JOHNSON-LOGAN-MARION-MONTGOMERY-NEWTON-POLK-POPE-SCOTT-SEARCY-
YELL.

&&

$$


AVIATION...65





000
FXUS64 KLZK 280000
AFDLZK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
600 PM CST FRI FEB 27 2015

.AVIATION...
WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL BRING SOME LIGHT SNOW TO THE
NORTHERN TAFS THIS EVENING. A SECOND DISTURBANCE WILL BRING
ANOTHER CHANCE OF LIGHT SNOW LATE IN THE PERIOD TO GENERALLY THE
SAME PLACES. WIDESPREAD MVFR TO IFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS
THE NORTH WITH MVFR TO VFR CONDITIONS OVER THE SOUTH. EAST TO
SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL GENERALLY PREVAIL.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 343 PM CST FRI FEB 27 2015/

SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT

SNOW DEVELOPED ACROSS OKLAHOMA TODAY...BUT DRIER AIR NEAR THE
SURFACE HAS ALLOWED PRECIPITATION TO EVAPORATE BEFORE REACHING THE
GROUND. MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO SATURATE THE ATMOSPHERE THIS
AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT...WITH SNOW POSSIBLE MAINLY ACROSS THE
OUACHITAS. SNOW AMOUNTS WILL GENERALLY LIGHT...HALF AN INCH OR
LESS...AND TAPER OFF AFTER MIDNIGHT.

THERE WILL BE A BREAK IN PRECIPITATION TONIGHT...BEFORE THE NEXT
WAVE MOVES OVER THE REGION SATURDAY AFTERNOON. WITH DEWPOINTS MUCH
HIGHER AND UPPER JET PROVIDING LIFT...EXPECT SNOW TO ACCUMULATE IN
AREAS NEAR THE MISSOURI BORDER. AS OF NOW...ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE
AROUND AN INCH OF LESS...BUT WILL NEED TO MONITOR LATEST GUIDANCE IF
ANY WINTER WEATHER HEADLINES ARE NEEDED.

PRECIPITATION WILL CONTINUE SATURDAY NIGHT...AND AS TEMPERATURES
WARM...THERE WILL BE A CHANGEOVER TO LIGHT FREEZING RAIN ACROSS THE
NORTH. TEMPERATURES WILL WARM ABOVE FREEZING AREA WIDE SUNDAY
MORNING.

AS COLD FRONT MOVES INTO THE REGION AND STALLS SUNDAY INTO
MONDAY...SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE.

LONG TERM...TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY

THE PATTERN WILL BE ACTIVE IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD...ESPECIALLY
EARLY. IT WILL WARM UP MARKEDLY ON TUESDAY AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT
ARRIVING FROM THE PLAINS. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BECOME
LIKELY AS THE FRONT MOVES INTO THE REGION.

THE FRONT MAY STALL FOR A TIME TUESDAY NIGHT/WEDNESDAY
MORNING...WITH SHOWERS/A FEW THUNDERSTORMS REMAINING POSSIBLE MAINLY
OVER THE SOUTHEAST HALF OF ARKANSAS.

A SECONDARY FRONT WILL SURGE ACROSS THE AREA WEDNESDAY...WITH
THE BRIEF PERIOD OF SPRING COMING TO A CLOSE. WINTER WILL COME
BACK...WITH TEMPERATURES ON THE WAY DOWN. CHANCES FOR RAIN REMAIN
IN THE FORECAST...WITH PRECIPITATION ENDING AS A FEW SNOWFLAKES
WEDNESDAY EVENING. THIS DOES NOT LOOK LIKE ANYTHING MAJOR.

THE PERIOD WILL END WITH CLOUDS DECREASING ON THURSDAY...AND BELOW
NORMAL TEMPERATURES THURSDAY/FRIDAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BATESVILLE AR     20  37  32  46 /  10  20  30  60
CAMDEN AR         25  44  38  55 /  10  10  20  60
HARRISON AR       17  31  30  42 /  20  60  50  60
HOT SPRINGS AR    23  38  35  47 /  20  20  20  60
LITTLE ROCK   AR  23  39  34  48 /  10  20  20  60
MONTICELLO AR     25  45  38  56 /  10  10  10  60
MOUNT IDA AR      22  38  35  46 /  30  20  30  60
MOUNTAIN HOME AR  17  32  30  43 /  20  50  40  60
NEWPORT AR        20  38  33  46 /  10  20  30  60
PINE BLUFF AR     25  42  36  52 /  10  10  20  60
RUSSELLVILLE AR   21  36  33  45 /  20  20  30  60
SEARCY AR         21  39  32  47 /  10  20  30  60
STUTTGART AR      23  40  35  49 /  10  10  20  60
&&

.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&

$$


AVIATION...56





000
FXUS64 KLZK 280000
AFDLZK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
600 PM CST FRI FEB 27 2015

.AVIATION...
WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL BRING SOME LIGHT SNOW TO THE
NORTHERN TAFS THIS EVENING. A SECOND DISTURBANCE WILL BRING
ANOTHER CHANCE OF LIGHT SNOW LATE IN THE PERIOD TO GENERALLY THE
SAME PLACES. WIDESPREAD MVFR TO IFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS
THE NORTH WITH MVFR TO VFR CONDITIONS OVER THE SOUTH. EAST TO
SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL GENERALLY PREVAIL.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 343 PM CST FRI FEB 27 2015/

SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT

SNOW DEVELOPED ACROSS OKLAHOMA TODAY...BUT DRIER AIR NEAR THE
SURFACE HAS ALLOWED PRECIPITATION TO EVAPORATE BEFORE REACHING THE
GROUND. MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO SATURATE THE ATMOSPHERE THIS
AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT...WITH SNOW POSSIBLE MAINLY ACROSS THE
OUACHITAS. SNOW AMOUNTS WILL GENERALLY LIGHT...HALF AN INCH OR
LESS...AND TAPER OFF AFTER MIDNIGHT.

THERE WILL BE A BREAK IN PRECIPITATION TONIGHT...BEFORE THE NEXT
WAVE MOVES OVER THE REGION SATURDAY AFTERNOON. WITH DEWPOINTS MUCH
HIGHER AND UPPER JET PROVIDING LIFT...EXPECT SNOW TO ACCUMULATE IN
AREAS NEAR THE MISSOURI BORDER. AS OF NOW...ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE
AROUND AN INCH OF LESS...BUT WILL NEED TO MONITOR LATEST GUIDANCE IF
ANY WINTER WEATHER HEADLINES ARE NEEDED.

PRECIPITATION WILL CONTINUE SATURDAY NIGHT...AND AS TEMPERATURES
WARM...THERE WILL BE A CHANGEOVER TO LIGHT FREEZING RAIN ACROSS THE
NORTH. TEMPERATURES WILL WARM ABOVE FREEZING AREA WIDE SUNDAY
MORNING.

AS COLD FRONT MOVES INTO THE REGION AND STALLS SUNDAY INTO
MONDAY...SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE.

LONG TERM...TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY

THE PATTERN WILL BE ACTIVE IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD...ESPECIALLY
EARLY. IT WILL WARM UP MARKEDLY ON TUESDAY AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT
ARRIVING FROM THE PLAINS. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BECOME
LIKELY AS THE FRONT MOVES INTO THE REGION.

THE FRONT MAY STALL FOR A TIME TUESDAY NIGHT/WEDNESDAY
MORNING...WITH SHOWERS/A FEW THUNDERSTORMS REMAINING POSSIBLE MAINLY
OVER THE SOUTHEAST HALF OF ARKANSAS.

A SECONDARY FRONT WILL SURGE ACROSS THE AREA WEDNESDAY...WITH
THE BRIEF PERIOD OF SPRING COMING TO A CLOSE. WINTER WILL COME
BACK...WITH TEMPERATURES ON THE WAY DOWN. CHANCES FOR RAIN REMAIN
IN THE FORECAST...WITH PRECIPITATION ENDING AS A FEW SNOWFLAKES
WEDNESDAY EVENING. THIS DOES NOT LOOK LIKE ANYTHING MAJOR.

THE PERIOD WILL END WITH CLOUDS DECREASING ON THURSDAY...AND BELOW
NORMAL TEMPERATURES THURSDAY/FRIDAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BATESVILLE AR     20  37  32  46 /  10  20  30  60
CAMDEN AR         25  44  38  55 /  10  10  20  60
HARRISON AR       17  31  30  42 /  20  60  50  60
HOT SPRINGS AR    23  38  35  47 /  20  20  20  60
LITTLE ROCK   AR  23  39  34  48 /  10  20  20  60
MONTICELLO AR     25  45  38  56 /  10  10  10  60
MOUNT IDA AR      22  38  35  46 /  30  20  30  60
MOUNTAIN HOME AR  17  32  30  43 /  20  50  40  60
NEWPORT AR        20  38  33  46 /  10  20  30  60
PINE BLUFF AR     25  42  36  52 /  10  10  20  60
RUSSELLVILLE AR   21  36  33  45 /  20  20  30  60
SEARCY AR         21  39  32  47 /  10  20  30  60
STUTTGART AR      23  40  35  49 /  10  10  20  60
&&

.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&

$$


AVIATION...56





000
FXUS64 KLZK 280000
AFDLZK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
600 PM CST FRI FEB 27 2015

.AVIATION...
WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL BRING SOME LIGHT SNOW TO THE
NORTHERN TAFS THIS EVENING. A SECOND DISTURBANCE WILL BRING
ANOTHER CHANCE OF LIGHT SNOW LATE IN THE PERIOD TO GENERALLY THE
SAME PLACES. WIDESPREAD MVFR TO IFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS
THE NORTH WITH MVFR TO VFR CONDITIONS OVER THE SOUTH. EAST TO
SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL GENERALLY PREVAIL.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 343 PM CST FRI FEB 27 2015/

SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT

SNOW DEVELOPED ACROSS OKLAHOMA TODAY...BUT DRIER AIR NEAR THE
SURFACE HAS ALLOWED PRECIPITATION TO EVAPORATE BEFORE REACHING THE
GROUND. MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO SATURATE THE ATMOSPHERE THIS
AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT...WITH SNOW POSSIBLE MAINLY ACROSS THE
OUACHITAS. SNOW AMOUNTS WILL GENERALLY LIGHT...HALF AN INCH OR
LESS...AND TAPER OFF AFTER MIDNIGHT.

THERE WILL BE A BREAK IN PRECIPITATION TONIGHT...BEFORE THE NEXT
WAVE MOVES OVER THE REGION SATURDAY AFTERNOON. WITH DEWPOINTS MUCH
HIGHER AND UPPER JET PROVIDING LIFT...EXPECT SNOW TO ACCUMULATE IN
AREAS NEAR THE MISSOURI BORDER. AS OF NOW...ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE
AROUND AN INCH OF LESS...BUT WILL NEED TO MONITOR LATEST GUIDANCE IF
ANY WINTER WEATHER HEADLINES ARE NEEDED.

PRECIPITATION WILL CONTINUE SATURDAY NIGHT...AND AS TEMPERATURES
WARM...THERE WILL BE A CHANGEOVER TO LIGHT FREEZING RAIN ACROSS THE
NORTH. TEMPERATURES WILL WARM ABOVE FREEZING AREA WIDE SUNDAY
MORNING.

AS COLD FRONT MOVES INTO THE REGION AND STALLS SUNDAY INTO
MONDAY...SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE.

LONG TERM...TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY

THE PATTERN WILL BE ACTIVE IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD...ESPECIALLY
EARLY. IT WILL WARM UP MARKEDLY ON TUESDAY AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT
ARRIVING FROM THE PLAINS. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BECOME
LIKELY AS THE FRONT MOVES INTO THE REGION.

THE FRONT MAY STALL FOR A TIME TUESDAY NIGHT/WEDNESDAY
MORNING...WITH SHOWERS/A FEW THUNDERSTORMS REMAINING POSSIBLE MAINLY
OVER THE SOUTHEAST HALF OF ARKANSAS.

A SECONDARY FRONT WILL SURGE ACROSS THE AREA WEDNESDAY...WITH
THE BRIEF PERIOD OF SPRING COMING TO A CLOSE. WINTER WILL COME
BACK...WITH TEMPERATURES ON THE WAY DOWN. CHANCES FOR RAIN REMAIN
IN THE FORECAST...WITH PRECIPITATION ENDING AS A FEW SNOWFLAKES
WEDNESDAY EVENING. THIS DOES NOT LOOK LIKE ANYTHING MAJOR.

THE PERIOD WILL END WITH CLOUDS DECREASING ON THURSDAY...AND BELOW
NORMAL TEMPERATURES THURSDAY/FRIDAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BATESVILLE AR     20  37  32  46 /  10  20  30  60
CAMDEN AR         25  44  38  55 /  10  10  20  60
HARRISON AR       17  31  30  42 /  20  60  50  60
HOT SPRINGS AR    23  38  35  47 /  20  20  20  60
LITTLE ROCK   AR  23  39  34  48 /  10  20  20  60
MONTICELLO AR     25  45  38  56 /  10  10  10  60
MOUNT IDA AR      22  38  35  46 /  30  20  30  60
MOUNTAIN HOME AR  17  32  30  43 /  20  50  40  60
NEWPORT AR        20  38  33  46 /  10  20  30  60
PINE BLUFF AR     25  42  36  52 /  10  10  20  60
RUSSELLVILLE AR   21  36  33  45 /  20  20  30  60
SEARCY AR         21  39  32  47 /  10  20  30  60
STUTTGART AR      23  40  35  49 /  10  10  20  60
&&

.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&

$$


AVIATION...56






000
FXUS64 KLZK 272143
AFDLZK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
343 PM CST FRI FEB 27 2015

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT

SNOW DEVELOPED ACROSS OKLAHOMA TODAY...BUT DRIER AIR NEAR THE
SURFACE HAS ALLOWED PRECIPITATION TO EVAPORATE BEFORE REACHING THE
GROUND. MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO SATURATE THE ATMOSPHERE THIS
AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT...WITH SNOW POSSIBLE MAINLY ACROSS THE
OUACHITAS. SNOW AMOUNTS WILL GENERALLY LIGHT...HALF AN INCH OR
LESS...AND TAPER OFF AFTER MIDNIGHT.

THERE WILL BE A BREAK IN PRECIPITATION TONIGHT...BEFORE THE NEXT
WAVE MOVES OVER THE REGION SATURDAY AFTERNOON. WITH DEWPOINTS MUCH
HIGHER AND UPPER JET PROVIDING LIFT...EXPECT SNOW TO ACCUMULATE IN
AREAS NEAR THE MISSOURI BORDER. AS OF NOW...ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE
AROUND AN INCH OF LESS...BUT WILL NEED TO MONITOR LATEST GUIDANCE IF
ANY WINTER WEATHER HEADLINES ARE NEEDED.

PRECIPITATION WILL CONTINUE SATURDAY NIGHT...AND AS TEMPERATURES
WARM...THERE WILL BE A CHANGEOVER TO LIGHT FREEZING RAIN ACROSS THE
NORTH. TEMPERATURES WILL WARM ABOVE FREEZING AREA WIDE SUNDAY
MORNING.

AS COLD FRONT MOVES INTO THE REGION AND STALLS SUNDAY INTO
MONDAY...SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE.
&&

.LONG TERM...TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY

THE PATTERN WILL BE ACTIVE IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD...ESPECIALLY
EARLY. IT WILL WARM UP MARKEDLY ON TUESDAY AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT
ARRIVING FROM THE PLAINS. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BECOME
LIKELY AS THE FRONT MOVES INTO THE REGION.

THE FRONT MAY STALL FOR A TIME TUESDAY NIGHT/WEDNESDAY
MORNING...WITH SHOWERS/A FEW THUNDERSTORMS REMAINING POSSIBLE MAINLY
OVER THE SOUTHEAST HALF OF ARKANSAS.

A SECONDARY FRONT WILL SURGE ACROSS THE AREA WEDNESDAY...WITH
THE BRIEF PERIOD OF SPRING COMING TO A CLOSE. WINTER WILL COME
BACK...WITH TEMPERATURES ON THE WAY DOWN. CHANCES FOR RAIN REMAIN
IN THE FORECAST...WITH PRECIPITATION ENDING AS A FEW SNOWFLAKES
WEDNESDAY EVENING. THIS DOES NOT LOOK LIKE ANYTHING MAJOR.

THE PERIOD WILL END WITH CLOUDS DECREASING ON THURSDAY...AND BELOW
NORMAL TEMPERATURES THURSDAY/FRIDAY.
&&

.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...58 / LONG TERM...46





000
FXUS64 KLZK 272143
AFDLZK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
343 PM CST FRI FEB 27 2015

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT

SNOW DEVELOPED ACROSS OKLAHOMA TODAY...BUT DRIER AIR NEAR THE
SURFACE HAS ALLOWED PRECIPITATION TO EVAPORATE BEFORE REACHING THE
GROUND. MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO SATURATE THE ATMOSPHERE THIS
AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT...WITH SNOW POSSIBLE MAINLY ACROSS THE
OUACHITAS. SNOW AMOUNTS WILL GENERALLY LIGHT...HALF AN INCH OR
LESS...AND TAPER OFF AFTER MIDNIGHT.

THERE WILL BE A BREAK IN PRECIPITATION TONIGHT...BEFORE THE NEXT
WAVE MOVES OVER THE REGION SATURDAY AFTERNOON. WITH DEWPOINTS MUCH
HIGHER AND UPPER JET PROVIDING LIFT...EXPECT SNOW TO ACCUMULATE IN
AREAS NEAR THE MISSOURI BORDER. AS OF NOW...ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE
AROUND AN INCH OF LESS...BUT WILL NEED TO MONITOR LATEST GUIDANCE IF
ANY WINTER WEATHER HEADLINES ARE NEEDED.

PRECIPITATION WILL CONTINUE SATURDAY NIGHT...AND AS TEMPERATURES
WARM...THERE WILL BE A CHANGEOVER TO LIGHT FREEZING RAIN ACROSS THE
NORTH. TEMPERATURES WILL WARM ABOVE FREEZING AREA WIDE SUNDAY
MORNING.

AS COLD FRONT MOVES INTO THE REGION AND STALLS SUNDAY INTO
MONDAY...SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE.
&&

.LONG TERM...TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY

THE PATTERN WILL BE ACTIVE IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD...ESPECIALLY
EARLY. IT WILL WARM UP MARKEDLY ON TUESDAY AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT
ARRIVING FROM THE PLAINS. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BECOME
LIKELY AS THE FRONT MOVES INTO THE REGION.

THE FRONT MAY STALL FOR A TIME TUESDAY NIGHT/WEDNESDAY
MORNING...WITH SHOWERS/A FEW THUNDERSTORMS REMAINING POSSIBLE MAINLY
OVER THE SOUTHEAST HALF OF ARKANSAS.

A SECONDARY FRONT WILL SURGE ACROSS THE AREA WEDNESDAY...WITH
THE BRIEF PERIOD OF SPRING COMING TO A CLOSE. WINTER WILL COME
BACK...WITH TEMPERATURES ON THE WAY DOWN. CHANCES FOR RAIN REMAIN
IN THE FORECAST...WITH PRECIPITATION ENDING AS A FEW SNOWFLAKES
WEDNESDAY EVENING. THIS DOES NOT LOOK LIKE ANYTHING MAJOR.

THE PERIOD WILL END WITH CLOUDS DECREASING ON THURSDAY...AND BELOW
NORMAL TEMPERATURES THURSDAY/FRIDAY.
&&

.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...58 / LONG TERM...46




000
FXUS64 KLZK 272143
AFDLZK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
343 PM CST FRI FEB 27 2015

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT

SNOW DEVELOPED ACROSS OKLAHOMA TODAY...BUT DRIER AIR NEAR THE
SURFACE HAS ALLOWED PRECIPITATION TO EVAPORATE BEFORE REACHING THE
GROUND. MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO SATURATE THE ATMOSPHERE THIS
AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT...WITH SNOW POSSIBLE MAINLY ACROSS THE
OUACHITAS. SNOW AMOUNTS WILL GENERALLY LIGHT...HALF AN INCH OR
LESS...AND TAPER OFF AFTER MIDNIGHT.

THERE WILL BE A BREAK IN PRECIPITATION TONIGHT...BEFORE THE NEXT
WAVE MOVES OVER THE REGION SATURDAY AFTERNOON. WITH DEWPOINTS MUCH
HIGHER AND UPPER JET PROVIDING LIFT...EXPECT SNOW TO ACCUMULATE IN
AREAS NEAR THE MISSOURI BORDER. AS OF NOW...ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE
AROUND AN INCH OF LESS...BUT WILL NEED TO MONITOR LATEST GUIDANCE IF
ANY WINTER WEATHER HEADLINES ARE NEEDED.

PRECIPITATION WILL CONTINUE SATURDAY NIGHT...AND AS TEMPERATURES
WARM...THERE WILL BE A CHANGEOVER TO LIGHT FREEZING RAIN ACROSS THE
NORTH. TEMPERATURES WILL WARM ABOVE FREEZING AREA WIDE SUNDAY
MORNING.

AS COLD FRONT MOVES INTO THE REGION AND STALLS SUNDAY INTO
MONDAY...SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE.
&&

.LONG TERM...TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY

THE PATTERN WILL BE ACTIVE IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD...ESPECIALLY
EARLY. IT WILL WARM UP MARKEDLY ON TUESDAY AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT
ARRIVING FROM THE PLAINS. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BECOME
LIKELY AS THE FRONT MOVES INTO THE REGION.

THE FRONT MAY STALL FOR A TIME TUESDAY NIGHT/WEDNESDAY
MORNING...WITH SHOWERS/A FEW THUNDERSTORMS REMAINING POSSIBLE MAINLY
OVER THE SOUTHEAST HALF OF ARKANSAS.

A SECONDARY FRONT WILL SURGE ACROSS THE AREA WEDNESDAY...WITH
THE BRIEF PERIOD OF SPRING COMING TO A CLOSE. WINTER WILL COME
BACK...WITH TEMPERATURES ON THE WAY DOWN. CHANCES FOR RAIN REMAIN
IN THE FORECAST...WITH PRECIPITATION ENDING AS A FEW SNOWFLAKES
WEDNESDAY EVENING. THIS DOES NOT LOOK LIKE ANYTHING MAJOR.

THE PERIOD WILL END WITH CLOUDS DECREASING ON THURSDAY...AND BELOW
NORMAL TEMPERATURES THURSDAY/FRIDAY.
&&

.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...58 / LONG TERM...46




000
FXUS64 KLZK 272143
AFDLZK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
343 PM CST FRI FEB 27 2015

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT

SNOW DEVELOPED ACROSS OKLAHOMA TODAY...BUT DRIER AIR NEAR THE
SURFACE HAS ALLOWED PRECIPITATION TO EVAPORATE BEFORE REACHING THE
GROUND. MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO SATURATE THE ATMOSPHERE THIS
AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT...WITH SNOW POSSIBLE MAINLY ACROSS THE
OUACHITAS. SNOW AMOUNTS WILL GENERALLY LIGHT...HALF AN INCH OR
LESS...AND TAPER OFF AFTER MIDNIGHT.

THERE WILL BE A BREAK IN PRECIPITATION TONIGHT...BEFORE THE NEXT
WAVE MOVES OVER THE REGION SATURDAY AFTERNOON. WITH DEWPOINTS MUCH
HIGHER AND UPPER JET PROVIDING LIFT...EXPECT SNOW TO ACCUMULATE IN
AREAS NEAR THE MISSOURI BORDER. AS OF NOW...ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE
AROUND AN INCH OF LESS...BUT WILL NEED TO MONITOR LATEST GUIDANCE IF
ANY WINTER WEATHER HEADLINES ARE NEEDED.

PRECIPITATION WILL CONTINUE SATURDAY NIGHT...AND AS TEMPERATURES
WARM...THERE WILL BE A CHANGEOVER TO LIGHT FREEZING RAIN ACROSS THE
NORTH. TEMPERATURES WILL WARM ABOVE FREEZING AREA WIDE SUNDAY
MORNING.

AS COLD FRONT MOVES INTO THE REGION AND STALLS SUNDAY INTO
MONDAY...SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE.
&&

.LONG TERM...TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY

THE PATTERN WILL BE ACTIVE IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD...ESPECIALLY
EARLY. IT WILL WARM UP MARKEDLY ON TUESDAY AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT
ARRIVING FROM THE PLAINS. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BECOME
LIKELY AS THE FRONT MOVES INTO THE REGION.

THE FRONT MAY STALL FOR A TIME TUESDAY NIGHT/WEDNESDAY
MORNING...WITH SHOWERS/A FEW THUNDERSTORMS REMAINING POSSIBLE MAINLY
OVER THE SOUTHEAST HALF OF ARKANSAS.

A SECONDARY FRONT WILL SURGE ACROSS THE AREA WEDNESDAY...WITH
THE BRIEF PERIOD OF SPRING COMING TO A CLOSE. WINTER WILL COME
BACK...WITH TEMPERATURES ON THE WAY DOWN. CHANCES FOR RAIN REMAIN
IN THE FORECAST...WITH PRECIPITATION ENDING AS A FEW SNOWFLAKES
WEDNESDAY EVENING. THIS DOES NOT LOOK LIKE ANYTHING MAJOR.

THE PERIOD WILL END WITH CLOUDS DECREASING ON THURSDAY...AND BELOW
NORMAL TEMPERATURES THURSDAY/FRIDAY.
&&

.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...58 / LONG TERM...46





000
FXUS64 KLZK 271134
AFDLZK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
534 AM CST FRI FEB 27 2015

.AVIATION...

LOW CLOUDS ARE BUILDING INTO SE ARKANSAS FROM THE EAST...AND WILL
BE BRINGING MVFR CONDITIONS HERE SHORTLY TO BOTH KPBF AND KLLQ.
OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST FOR A GOOD PORTION OF THE
DAY. THERE WILL BE SOME CHANCES FOR SOME LIGHT SNOW ACROSS THE
WESTERN MOST TAF SITES...INCLUDING KHRO...KHOT...AND KADF DURING
THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. MVFR CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED
TONIGHT AND CONTINUING THROUGH THE END OF THE TAF CYCLE.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 302 AM CST FRI FEB 27 2015/

SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT
850 MB LOW OVER TEXAS WILL MOVE EASTWARD TODAY...WITH UPLIFT
NORTH OF IT ALLOWING FOR PRECIPITATION TO FORM AND MOVE ACROSS THE
WESTERN PORTION OF ARKANSAS. OF COURSE...ANY PRECIP WILL BE IN THE
FORM OF LIGHT SNOW. NO SIGNIFICANT ACCUMULATIONS ARE EXPECTED.

COLD AIR IN PLACE OVER THE REGION WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES WELL
BELOW AVERAGE THE NEXT FEW DAYS. TODAY WILL BE COLDEST...WITH MOST
LOCATIONS STAYING BELOW FREEZING.

FRONTAL BOUNDARY STALLED WELL TO THE SOUTHWEST OF THE REGION WILL
BEGIN MOVING NORTHWARD THIS WEEKEND. TEMPERATURES WILL WARM
SLIGHTLY OUT AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY. PRECIP CHANCES WILL INCREASE
AS WELL...WITH A WINTRY MIX POSSIBLE IN PORTIONS OF THE NORTH AND
WEST. BY SUNDAY...PRECIP SHOULD BE ALL RAIN...AS THE BOUNDARY WILL
BE NORTH OF THE REGION...AND LIKELY STALLED OUT NEAR SOUTHERN
MISSOURI.

WITH INCREASED INSTABILITY OVER THE REGION...THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE
POSSIBLE ON SUNDAY AS THE FRONT MOVES BACK INTO THE REGION. THE
FRONT WILL HIT PARALLEL UPPER FLOW AGAIN...STALL AND MOVE BACK TO
THE NORTH ON MONDAY...WITH A CONTINUED CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS.

LONG TERM...TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY
AFTER BEING FAIRLY IN LINE YESTERDAY...MODELS HAVE BEGUN TO VARY A
BIT IN THE LONG TERM. LONG TERM BEGINS WITH SW FLOW ALOFT AND
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED TO THE EAST OF THE STATE.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE WELL ABOVE NORMAL ON TUESDAY WITH THE WARM
SOUTHERLY FLOW. GFS AND THE GEM MOVE A SURFACE LOW TO THE NW OF
ARKANSAS A GOOD 18 HOURS QUICKER THAN THE ECMWF. AT THIS
POINT...TENDED TO KEEP THE FORECAST CONSISTENT AND LEAN TOWARDS THE
GFS AND GEM. COLD FRONT WILL ENTER THE STATE TUESDAY NIGHT...WITH
SOME WINTRY PRECIPITATION POSSIBLE TUESDAY NIGHT ACROSS NORTHERN
ARKANSAS...AND MUCH OF THE STATE AGAIN ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT. MODELS
AGREE...PRECIPITATION WILL COME TO AN END THURSDAY MORNING.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BATESVILLE AR     27  19  37  31 /  20  10  10  20
CAMDEN AR         34  25  45  37 /  20  10  10  20
HARRISON AR       24  16  33  30 /  30  20  30  30
HOT SPRINGS AR    30  22  39  35 /  20  20  10  20
LITTLE ROCK   AR  30  22  40  34 /  20  10  10  20
MONTICELLO AR     33  25  45  37 /  10  10  10  20
MOUNT IDA AR      29  21  39  34 /  30  20  20  20
MOUNTAIN HOME AR  25  17  34  30 /  30  20  20  20
NEWPORT AR        27  20  38  32 /  20  10  10  20
PINE BLUFF AR     31  24  41  35 /  10  10  10  20
RUSSELLVILLE AR   29  21  37  32 /  30  20  20  20
SEARCY AR         29  20  39  32 /  20  10  10  20
STUTTGART AR      30  23  40  34 /  10  10  10  20
&&

.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&

$$


AVIATION...65






000
FXUS64 KLZK 271134
AFDLZK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
534 AM CST FRI FEB 27 2015

.AVIATION...

LOW CLOUDS ARE BUILDING INTO SE ARKANSAS FROM THE EAST...AND WILL
BE BRINGING MVFR CONDITIONS HERE SHORTLY TO BOTH KPBF AND KLLQ.
OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST FOR A GOOD PORTION OF THE
DAY. THERE WILL BE SOME CHANCES FOR SOME LIGHT SNOW ACROSS THE
WESTERN MOST TAF SITES...INCLUDING KHRO...KHOT...AND KADF DURING
THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. MVFR CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED
TONIGHT AND CONTINUING THROUGH THE END OF THE TAF CYCLE.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 302 AM CST FRI FEB 27 2015/

SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT
850 MB LOW OVER TEXAS WILL MOVE EASTWARD TODAY...WITH UPLIFT
NORTH OF IT ALLOWING FOR PRECIPITATION TO FORM AND MOVE ACROSS THE
WESTERN PORTION OF ARKANSAS. OF COURSE...ANY PRECIP WILL BE IN THE
FORM OF LIGHT SNOW. NO SIGNIFICANT ACCUMULATIONS ARE EXPECTED.

COLD AIR IN PLACE OVER THE REGION WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES WELL
BELOW AVERAGE THE NEXT FEW DAYS. TODAY WILL BE COLDEST...WITH MOST
LOCATIONS STAYING BELOW FREEZING.

FRONTAL BOUNDARY STALLED WELL TO THE SOUTHWEST OF THE REGION WILL
BEGIN MOVING NORTHWARD THIS WEEKEND. TEMPERATURES WILL WARM
SLIGHTLY OUT AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY. PRECIP CHANCES WILL INCREASE
AS WELL...WITH A WINTRY MIX POSSIBLE IN PORTIONS OF THE NORTH AND
WEST. BY SUNDAY...PRECIP SHOULD BE ALL RAIN...AS THE BOUNDARY WILL
BE NORTH OF THE REGION...AND LIKELY STALLED OUT NEAR SOUTHERN
MISSOURI.

WITH INCREASED INSTABILITY OVER THE REGION...THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE
POSSIBLE ON SUNDAY AS THE FRONT MOVES BACK INTO THE REGION. THE
FRONT WILL HIT PARALLEL UPPER FLOW AGAIN...STALL AND MOVE BACK TO
THE NORTH ON MONDAY...WITH A CONTINUED CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS.

LONG TERM...TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY
AFTER BEING FAIRLY IN LINE YESTERDAY...MODELS HAVE BEGUN TO VARY A
BIT IN THE LONG TERM. LONG TERM BEGINS WITH SW FLOW ALOFT AND
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED TO THE EAST OF THE STATE.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE WELL ABOVE NORMAL ON TUESDAY WITH THE WARM
SOUTHERLY FLOW. GFS AND THE GEM MOVE A SURFACE LOW TO THE NW OF
ARKANSAS A GOOD 18 HOURS QUICKER THAN THE ECMWF. AT THIS
POINT...TENDED TO KEEP THE FORECAST CONSISTENT AND LEAN TOWARDS THE
GFS AND GEM. COLD FRONT WILL ENTER THE STATE TUESDAY NIGHT...WITH
SOME WINTRY PRECIPITATION POSSIBLE TUESDAY NIGHT ACROSS NORTHERN
ARKANSAS...AND MUCH OF THE STATE AGAIN ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT. MODELS
AGREE...PRECIPITATION WILL COME TO AN END THURSDAY MORNING.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BATESVILLE AR     27  19  37  31 /  20  10  10  20
CAMDEN AR         34  25  45  37 /  20  10  10  20
HARRISON AR       24  16  33  30 /  30  20  30  30
HOT SPRINGS AR    30  22  39  35 /  20  20  10  20
LITTLE ROCK   AR  30  22  40  34 /  20  10  10  20
MONTICELLO AR     33  25  45  37 /  10  10  10  20
MOUNT IDA AR      29  21  39  34 /  30  20  20  20
MOUNTAIN HOME AR  25  17  34  30 /  30  20  20  20
NEWPORT AR        27  20  38  32 /  20  10  10  20
PINE BLUFF AR     31  24  41  35 /  10  10  10  20
RUSSELLVILLE AR   29  21  37  32 /  30  20  20  20
SEARCY AR         29  20  39  32 /  20  10  10  20
STUTTGART AR      30  23  40  34 /  10  10  10  20
&&

.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&

$$


AVIATION...65





000
FXUS64 KLZK 270902
AFDLZK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
302 AM CST FRI FEB 27 2015

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT
850 MB LOW OVER TEXAS WILL MOVE EASTWARD TODAY...WITH UPLIFT
NORTH OF IT ALLOWING FOR PRECIPITATION TO FORM AND MOVE ACROSS THE
WESTERN PORTION OF ARKANSAS. OF COURSE...ANY PRECIP WILL BE IN THE
FORM OF LIGHT SNOW. NO SIGNIFICANT ACCUMULATIONS ARE EXPECTED.

COLD AIR IN PLACE OVER THE REGION WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES WELL
BELOW AVERAGE THE NEXT FEW DAYS. TODAY WILL BE COLDEST...WITH MOST
LOCATIONS STAYING BELOW FREEZING.

FRONTAL BOUNDARY STALLED WELL TO THE SOUTHWEST OF THE REGION WILL
BEGIN MOVING NORTHWARD THIS WEEKEND. TEMPERATURES WILL WARM
SLIGHTLY OUT AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY. PRECIP CHANCES WILL INCREASE
AS WELL...WITH A WINTRY MIX POSSIBLE IN PORTIONS OF THE NORTH AND
WEST. BY SUNDAY...PRECIP SHOULD BE ALL RAIN...AS THE BOUNDARY WILL
BE NORTH OF THE REGION...AND LIKELY STALLED OUT NEAR SOUTHERN
MISSOURI.

WITH INCREASED INSTABILITY OVER THE REGION...THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE
POSSIBLE ON SUNDAY AS THE FRONT MOVES BACK INTO THE REGION. THE
FRONT WILL HIT PARALLEL UPPER FLOW AGAIN...STALL AND MOVE BACK TO
THE NORTH ON MONDAY...WITH A CONTINUED CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS.
&&

.LONG TERM...TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY
AFTER BEING FAIRLY IN LINE YESTERDAY...MODELS HAVE BEGUN TO VARY A
BIT IN THE LONG TERM. LONG TERM BEGINS WITH SW FLOW ALOFT AND
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED TO THE EAST OF THE STATE.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE WELL ABOVE NORMAL ON TUESDAY WITH THE WARM
SOUTHERLY FLOW. GFS AND THE GEM MOVE A SURFACE LOW TO THE NW OF
ARKANSAS A GOOD 18 HOURS QUICKER THAN THE ECMWF. AT THIS
POINT...TENDED TO KEEP THE FORECAST CONSISTENT AND LEAN TOWARDS THE
GFS AND GEM. COLD FRONT WILL ENTER THE STATE TUESDAY NIGHT...WITH
SOME WINTRY PRECIPITATION POSSIBLE TUESDAY NIGHT ACROSS NORTHERN
ARKANSAS...AND MUCH OF THE STATE AGAIN ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT. MODELS
AGREE...PRECIPITATION WILL COME TO AN END THURSDAY MORNING.
&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BATESVILLE AR     27  19  37  31 /  20  10  10  20
CAMDEN AR         34  25  45  37 /  20  10  10  20
HARRISON AR       24  16  33  30 /  30  20  30  30
HOT SPRINGS AR    30  22  39  35 /  20  20  10  20
LITTLE ROCK   AR  30  22  40  34 /  20  10  10  20
MONTICELLO AR     33  25  45  37 /  10  10  10  20
MOUNT IDA AR      29  21  39  34 /  30  20  20  20
MOUNTAIN HOME AR  25  17  34  30 /  30  20  20  20
NEWPORT AR        27  20  38  32 /  20  10  10  20
PINE BLUFF AR     31  24  41  35 /  10  10  10  20
RUSSELLVILLE AR   29  21  37  32 /  30  20  20  20
SEARCY AR         29  20  39  32 /  20  10  10  20
STUTTGART AR      30  23  40  34 /  10  10  10  20
&&

.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...57 / LONG TERM...65





000
FXUS64 KLZK 270902
AFDLZK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
302 AM CST FRI FEB 27 2015

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT
850 MB LOW OVER TEXAS WILL MOVE EASTWARD TODAY...WITH UPLIFT
NORTH OF IT ALLOWING FOR PRECIPITATION TO FORM AND MOVE ACROSS THE
WESTERN PORTION OF ARKANSAS. OF COURSE...ANY PRECIP WILL BE IN THE
FORM OF LIGHT SNOW. NO SIGNIFICANT ACCUMULATIONS ARE EXPECTED.

COLD AIR IN PLACE OVER THE REGION WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES WELL
BELOW AVERAGE THE NEXT FEW DAYS. TODAY WILL BE COLDEST...WITH MOST
LOCATIONS STAYING BELOW FREEZING.

FRONTAL BOUNDARY STALLED WELL TO THE SOUTHWEST OF THE REGION WILL
BEGIN MOVING NORTHWARD THIS WEEKEND. TEMPERATURES WILL WARM
SLIGHTLY OUT AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY. PRECIP CHANCES WILL INCREASE
AS WELL...WITH A WINTRY MIX POSSIBLE IN PORTIONS OF THE NORTH AND
WEST. BY SUNDAY...PRECIP SHOULD BE ALL RAIN...AS THE BOUNDARY WILL
BE NORTH OF THE REGION...AND LIKELY STALLED OUT NEAR SOUTHERN
MISSOURI.

WITH INCREASED INSTABILITY OVER THE REGION...THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE
POSSIBLE ON SUNDAY AS THE FRONT MOVES BACK INTO THE REGION. THE
FRONT WILL HIT PARALLEL UPPER FLOW AGAIN...STALL AND MOVE BACK TO
THE NORTH ON MONDAY...WITH A CONTINUED CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS.
&&

.LONG TERM...TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY
AFTER BEING FAIRLY IN LINE YESTERDAY...MODELS HAVE BEGUN TO VARY A
BIT IN THE LONG TERM. LONG TERM BEGINS WITH SW FLOW ALOFT AND
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED TO THE EAST OF THE STATE.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE WELL ABOVE NORMAL ON TUESDAY WITH THE WARM
SOUTHERLY FLOW. GFS AND THE GEM MOVE A SURFACE LOW TO THE NW OF
ARKANSAS A GOOD 18 HOURS QUICKER THAN THE ECMWF. AT THIS
POINT...TENDED TO KEEP THE FORECAST CONSISTENT AND LEAN TOWARDS THE
GFS AND GEM. COLD FRONT WILL ENTER THE STATE TUESDAY NIGHT...WITH
SOME WINTRY PRECIPITATION POSSIBLE TUESDAY NIGHT ACROSS NORTHERN
ARKANSAS...AND MUCH OF THE STATE AGAIN ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT. MODELS
AGREE...PRECIPITATION WILL COME TO AN END THURSDAY MORNING.
&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BATESVILLE AR     27  19  37  31 /  20  10  10  20
CAMDEN AR         34  25  45  37 /  20  10  10  20
HARRISON AR       24  16  33  30 /  30  20  30  30
HOT SPRINGS AR    30  22  39  35 /  20  20  10  20
LITTLE ROCK   AR  30  22  40  34 /  20  10  10  20
MONTICELLO AR     33  25  45  37 /  10  10  10  20
MOUNT IDA AR      29  21  39  34 /  30  20  20  20
MOUNTAIN HOME AR  25  17  34  30 /  30  20  20  20
NEWPORT AR        27  20  38  32 /  20  10  10  20
PINE BLUFF AR     31  24  41  35 /  10  10  10  20
RUSSELLVILLE AR   29  21  37  32 /  30  20  20  20
SEARCY AR         29  20  39  32 /  20  10  10  20
STUTTGART AR      30  23  40  34 /  10  10  10  20
&&

.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...57 / LONG TERM...65




000
FXUS64 KLZK 270535
AFDLZK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
1135 PM CST THU FEB 26 2015

.AVIATION...

HIGH PRESSURE HAS SETTLED INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS...BRINGING LIGHT
NNE WINDS TO THE AREA. MEANWHILE...CLOUDS WILL INCREASE FROM THE
WEST AHEAD OF THE NEXT WEATHER SYSTEM...WITH CEILINGS GENERALLY
LOWERING...BUT REMAINING VFR. WINDS WILL BECOME EASTERLY THROUGH
THE DAY FRIDAY AS THE HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS EAST AND THE STORM
SYSTEM APPROACHES. SOME SMALL CHANCES FOR LIGHT SNOW COULD BE
NOTED LATE IN THE PERIOD FOR KHRO...KBPK...KHOT...AND KADF.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 854 PM CST THU FEB 26 2015/

UPDATE...

HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE INTO THE STATE TONIGHT. MID AND HIGH
CLOUDS WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA PERIODICALLY THROUGH THE NIGHT.
THE HIGH WILL BRING IN COLDER TEMPERATURES AND LOWS WILL BE IN THE
SINGLE DIGITS TO LOWER 20S. MADE ONLY MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO THE
TEMPERATURES AND DEW POINTS BASED ON CURRENT OBSERVATIONS AND
TRENDS. ALSO ADJUSTED CLOUD COVER.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 548 PM CST THU FEB 26 2015/

AVIATION...

LOW CLOUDS CONTINUE IN SOUTHEAST ARKANSAS. THESE ARE SLOWLY
ERODING FROM THE NORTHWEST AS STRONG HIGH PRESSURE MOVES INTO
ARKANSAS. HIGH CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE OVERNIGHT. MID CLOUDS WILL
INCREASE DURING THE DAY FRIDAY AS THE NEXT SYSTEM APPROACHES FROM
THE WEST. THERE WILL BE A CHANCE OF LIGHT SNOW IN NORTH AND WEST
SECTIONS OF THE STATE BY LATE IN THE PERIOD. THOUGH SOME MVFR
CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE IN THE SOUTHEAST EARLY THIS EVENING...MOST
OF THE PERIOD WILL BE VFR.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 329 PM CST THU FEB 26 2015/

SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT

FLURRIES HAVE BEEN MOVING THROUGH THE STATE TODAY...BUT TEMPERATURES
HAVE CLIMBED ABOVE FREEZING ACROSS THE SOUTH...EVEN WITH THE
SNOW PACK. HIGH PRESSURE MOVING IN TONIGHT WILL BRING COLD
TEMPERATURES...WITH LOWS IN THE NORTH IN THE SINGLE DIGITS. WINDS
WILL STAY ELEVATED THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING...BEFORE CALMING
SOMEWHAT. WIND CHILL READINGS WILL FALL BELOW ZERO OVERNIGHT ACROSS
THE NORTH...BUT WITH WINDS REMAINING BELOW 10 MPH...AN ADVISORY IS
NOT NEEDED.

THE COLD TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE REGION ON FRIDAY...WITH
MOST AREAS REMAINING BELOW FREEZING. GUIDANCE HAS SHOWN FOR THE LAST
FEW RUNS SOME LIGHT SNOW POSSIBLE ACROSS THE WEST FRIDAY AFTERNOON
AND EVENING...BUT NOT EXPECTING MUCH MORE THAN FLURRIES/VERY LIGHT
SNOW DUE TO LIMITED MOISTURE.

ANOTHER SYSTEM WILL APPROACH THE REGION SATURDAY...AS THE RETURN
FLOW BRINGS SOME WARMER TEMPERATURES TO THE REGION. HOWEVER...THIS
WILL ALSO BRING MOISTURE BACK FROM THE GULF. THERE IS STILL QUESTION
ABOUT MOISTURE AMOUNTS AND TEMPERATURES...AND HAVE KEPT CONSERVATIVE
FORECAST GOING IN REGARDS TO FREEZING PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE NORTH
SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY MORNING.

TEMPERATURES WILL WARM SUNDAY...WITH HIGHS CLIMBING INTO THE 40S.
HAVE ADDED ISOLATED THUNDER TO THE SOUTH...AS FRONT WILL BE STALLED
ACROSS THE SOUTH. THERE IS LOW CONFIDENCE IN POP FORECAST FOR
SUNDAY...AS GUIDANCE IS NOT IN GOOD AGREEMENT...AND WILL BE REFINED
IN LATER FORECASTS.

LONG TERM...MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY

THE PATTERN WILL BE ACTIVE IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD. A STORM SYSTEM
WILL TRACK FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS TO THE GREAT LAKES
MONDAY/TUESDAY. AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM...RAIN CHANCES WILL INCREASE
ON MONDAY AND IT WILL BEGIN WARMING UP. IT WILL BE MILD ON TUESDAY
AS THE SYSTEM DRAGS A COLD FRONT INTO THE REGION. THUNDERSTORMS WILL
BE POSSIBLE AS THE FRONT GOES THROUGH.

THE FRONT MAY STALL FOR A TIME TUESDAY NIGHT/WEDNESDAY
MORNING...WITH SHOWERS/A FEW THUNDERSTORMS REMAINING POSSIBLE MAINLY
OVER THE SOUTHEAST HALF OF ARKANSAS.

A SECONDARY FRONT WILL SURGE ACROSS THE AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT...AND
THE BRIEF PERIOD OF SPRING WILL COME TO A CLOSE. WINTER WILL COME
BACK...WITH TEMPERATURES ON THE WAY DOWN. THERE MAY BE A LITTLE
LIGHT SNOW WITH THE FRONT...BUT IT DOES NOT LOOK LIKE ANYTHING
MAJOR.

THE PERIOD WILL END WITH CLOUDS DECREASING ON THURSDAY AND BELOW
NORMAL TEMPERATURES.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BATESVILLE AR     14  27  19  37 /   0  10  10  10
CAMDEN AR         22  34  25  45 /   0  10  10  10
HARRISON AR        8  24  16  33 /   0  20  20  30
HOT SPRINGS AR    19  30  22  39 /   0  20  10  10
LITTLE ROCK   AR  18  30  22  40 /   0  10  10  10
MONTICELLO AR     22  33  25  45 /   0  10  10  10
MOUNT IDA AR      17  29  21  39 /   0  20  20  20
MOUNTAIN HOME AR   9  25  17  34 /   0  10  20  20
NEWPORT AR        16  27  20  38 /   0  10  10  10
PINE BLUFF AR     20  31  24  42 /   0  10  10  10
RUSSELLVILLE AR   16  29  20  37 /   0  20  20  20
SEARCY AR         16  29  20  39 /   0  10  10  10
STUTTGART AR      19  30  23  41 /   0  10  10  10
&&

.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&

$$


AVIATION...65





000
FXUS64 KLZK 270535
AFDLZK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
1135 PM CST THU FEB 26 2015

.AVIATION...

HIGH PRESSURE HAS SETTLED INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS...BRINGING LIGHT
NNE WINDS TO THE AREA. MEANWHILE...CLOUDS WILL INCREASE FROM THE
WEST AHEAD OF THE NEXT WEATHER SYSTEM...WITH CEILINGS GENERALLY
LOWERING...BUT REMAINING VFR. WINDS WILL BECOME EASTERLY THROUGH
THE DAY FRIDAY AS THE HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS EAST AND THE STORM
SYSTEM APPROACHES. SOME SMALL CHANCES FOR LIGHT SNOW COULD BE
NOTED LATE IN THE PERIOD FOR KHRO...KBPK...KHOT...AND KADF.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 854 PM CST THU FEB 26 2015/

UPDATE...

HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE INTO THE STATE TONIGHT. MID AND HIGH
CLOUDS WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA PERIODICALLY THROUGH THE NIGHT.
THE HIGH WILL BRING IN COLDER TEMPERATURES AND LOWS WILL BE IN THE
SINGLE DIGITS TO LOWER 20S. MADE ONLY MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO THE
TEMPERATURES AND DEW POINTS BASED ON CURRENT OBSERVATIONS AND
TRENDS. ALSO ADJUSTED CLOUD COVER.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 548 PM CST THU FEB 26 2015/

AVIATION...

LOW CLOUDS CONTINUE IN SOUTHEAST ARKANSAS. THESE ARE SLOWLY
ERODING FROM THE NORTHWEST AS STRONG HIGH PRESSURE MOVES INTO
ARKANSAS. HIGH CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE OVERNIGHT. MID CLOUDS WILL
INCREASE DURING THE DAY FRIDAY AS THE NEXT SYSTEM APPROACHES FROM
THE WEST. THERE WILL BE A CHANCE OF LIGHT SNOW IN NORTH AND WEST
SECTIONS OF THE STATE BY LATE IN THE PERIOD. THOUGH SOME MVFR
CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE IN THE SOUTHEAST EARLY THIS EVENING...MOST
OF THE PERIOD WILL BE VFR.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 329 PM CST THU FEB 26 2015/

SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT

FLURRIES HAVE BEEN MOVING THROUGH THE STATE TODAY...BUT TEMPERATURES
HAVE CLIMBED ABOVE FREEZING ACROSS THE SOUTH...EVEN WITH THE
SNOW PACK. HIGH PRESSURE MOVING IN TONIGHT WILL BRING COLD
TEMPERATURES...WITH LOWS IN THE NORTH IN THE SINGLE DIGITS. WINDS
WILL STAY ELEVATED THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING...BEFORE CALMING
SOMEWHAT. WIND CHILL READINGS WILL FALL BELOW ZERO OVERNIGHT ACROSS
THE NORTH...BUT WITH WINDS REMAINING BELOW 10 MPH...AN ADVISORY IS
NOT NEEDED.

THE COLD TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE REGION ON FRIDAY...WITH
MOST AREAS REMAINING BELOW FREEZING. GUIDANCE HAS SHOWN FOR THE LAST
FEW RUNS SOME LIGHT SNOW POSSIBLE ACROSS THE WEST FRIDAY AFTERNOON
AND EVENING...BUT NOT EXPECTING MUCH MORE THAN FLURRIES/VERY LIGHT
SNOW DUE TO LIMITED MOISTURE.

ANOTHER SYSTEM WILL APPROACH THE REGION SATURDAY...AS THE RETURN
FLOW BRINGS SOME WARMER TEMPERATURES TO THE REGION. HOWEVER...THIS
WILL ALSO BRING MOISTURE BACK FROM THE GULF. THERE IS STILL QUESTION
ABOUT MOISTURE AMOUNTS AND TEMPERATURES...AND HAVE KEPT CONSERVATIVE
FORECAST GOING IN REGARDS TO FREEZING PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE NORTH
SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY MORNING.

TEMPERATURES WILL WARM SUNDAY...WITH HIGHS CLIMBING INTO THE 40S.
HAVE ADDED ISOLATED THUNDER TO THE SOUTH...AS FRONT WILL BE STALLED
ACROSS THE SOUTH. THERE IS LOW CONFIDENCE IN POP FORECAST FOR
SUNDAY...AS GUIDANCE IS NOT IN GOOD AGREEMENT...AND WILL BE REFINED
IN LATER FORECASTS.

LONG TERM...MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY

THE PATTERN WILL BE ACTIVE IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD. A STORM SYSTEM
WILL TRACK FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS TO THE GREAT LAKES
MONDAY/TUESDAY. AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM...RAIN CHANCES WILL INCREASE
ON MONDAY AND IT WILL BEGIN WARMING UP. IT WILL BE MILD ON TUESDAY
AS THE SYSTEM DRAGS A COLD FRONT INTO THE REGION. THUNDERSTORMS WILL
BE POSSIBLE AS THE FRONT GOES THROUGH.

THE FRONT MAY STALL FOR A TIME TUESDAY NIGHT/WEDNESDAY
MORNING...WITH SHOWERS/A FEW THUNDERSTORMS REMAINING POSSIBLE MAINLY
OVER THE SOUTHEAST HALF OF ARKANSAS.

A SECONDARY FRONT WILL SURGE ACROSS THE AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT...AND
THE BRIEF PERIOD OF SPRING WILL COME TO A CLOSE. WINTER WILL COME
BACK...WITH TEMPERATURES ON THE WAY DOWN. THERE MAY BE A LITTLE
LIGHT SNOW WITH THE FRONT...BUT IT DOES NOT LOOK LIKE ANYTHING
MAJOR.

THE PERIOD WILL END WITH CLOUDS DECREASING ON THURSDAY AND BELOW
NORMAL TEMPERATURES.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BATESVILLE AR     14  27  19  37 /   0  10  10  10
CAMDEN AR         22  34  25  45 /   0  10  10  10
HARRISON AR        8  24  16  33 /   0  20  20  30
HOT SPRINGS AR    19  30  22  39 /   0  20  10  10
LITTLE ROCK   AR  18  30  22  40 /   0  10  10  10
MONTICELLO AR     22  33  25  45 /   0  10  10  10
MOUNT IDA AR      17  29  21  39 /   0  20  20  20
MOUNTAIN HOME AR   9  25  17  34 /   0  10  20  20
NEWPORT AR        16  27  20  38 /   0  10  10  10
PINE BLUFF AR     20  31  24  42 /   0  10  10  10
RUSSELLVILLE AR   16  29  20  37 /   0  20  20  20
SEARCY AR         16  29  20  39 /   0  10  10  10
STUTTGART AR      19  30  23  41 /   0  10  10  10
&&

.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&

$$


AVIATION...65





000
FXUS64 KLZK 270535
AFDLZK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
1135 PM CST THU FEB 26 2015

.AVIATION...

HIGH PRESSURE HAS SETTLED INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS...BRINGING LIGHT
NNE WINDS TO THE AREA. MEANWHILE...CLOUDS WILL INCREASE FROM THE
WEST AHEAD OF THE NEXT WEATHER SYSTEM...WITH CEILINGS GENERALLY
LOWERING...BUT REMAINING VFR. WINDS WILL BECOME EASTERLY THROUGH
THE DAY FRIDAY AS THE HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS EAST AND THE STORM
SYSTEM APPROACHES. SOME SMALL CHANCES FOR LIGHT SNOW COULD BE
NOTED LATE IN THE PERIOD FOR KHRO...KBPK...KHOT...AND KADF.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 854 PM CST THU FEB 26 2015/

UPDATE...

HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE INTO THE STATE TONIGHT. MID AND HIGH
CLOUDS WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA PERIODICALLY THROUGH THE NIGHT.
THE HIGH WILL BRING IN COLDER TEMPERATURES AND LOWS WILL BE IN THE
SINGLE DIGITS TO LOWER 20S. MADE ONLY MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO THE
TEMPERATURES AND DEW POINTS BASED ON CURRENT OBSERVATIONS AND
TRENDS. ALSO ADJUSTED CLOUD COVER.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 548 PM CST THU FEB 26 2015/

AVIATION...

LOW CLOUDS CONTINUE IN SOUTHEAST ARKANSAS. THESE ARE SLOWLY
ERODING FROM THE NORTHWEST AS STRONG HIGH PRESSURE MOVES INTO
ARKANSAS. HIGH CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE OVERNIGHT. MID CLOUDS WILL
INCREASE DURING THE DAY FRIDAY AS THE NEXT SYSTEM APPROACHES FROM
THE WEST. THERE WILL BE A CHANCE OF LIGHT SNOW IN NORTH AND WEST
SECTIONS OF THE STATE BY LATE IN THE PERIOD. THOUGH SOME MVFR
CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE IN THE SOUTHEAST EARLY THIS EVENING...MOST
OF THE PERIOD WILL BE VFR.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 329 PM CST THU FEB 26 2015/

SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT

FLURRIES HAVE BEEN MOVING THROUGH THE STATE TODAY...BUT TEMPERATURES
HAVE CLIMBED ABOVE FREEZING ACROSS THE SOUTH...EVEN WITH THE
SNOW PACK. HIGH PRESSURE MOVING IN TONIGHT WILL BRING COLD
TEMPERATURES...WITH LOWS IN THE NORTH IN THE SINGLE DIGITS. WINDS
WILL STAY ELEVATED THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING...BEFORE CALMING
SOMEWHAT. WIND CHILL READINGS WILL FALL BELOW ZERO OVERNIGHT ACROSS
THE NORTH...BUT WITH WINDS REMAINING BELOW 10 MPH...AN ADVISORY IS
NOT NEEDED.

THE COLD TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE REGION ON FRIDAY...WITH
MOST AREAS REMAINING BELOW FREEZING. GUIDANCE HAS SHOWN FOR THE LAST
FEW RUNS SOME LIGHT SNOW POSSIBLE ACROSS THE WEST FRIDAY AFTERNOON
AND EVENING...BUT NOT EXPECTING MUCH MORE THAN FLURRIES/VERY LIGHT
SNOW DUE TO LIMITED MOISTURE.

ANOTHER SYSTEM WILL APPROACH THE REGION SATURDAY...AS THE RETURN
FLOW BRINGS SOME WARMER TEMPERATURES TO THE REGION. HOWEVER...THIS
WILL ALSO BRING MOISTURE BACK FROM THE GULF. THERE IS STILL QUESTION
ABOUT MOISTURE AMOUNTS AND TEMPERATURES...AND HAVE KEPT CONSERVATIVE
FORECAST GOING IN REGARDS TO FREEZING PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE NORTH
SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY MORNING.

TEMPERATURES WILL WARM SUNDAY...WITH HIGHS CLIMBING INTO THE 40S.
HAVE ADDED ISOLATED THUNDER TO THE SOUTH...AS FRONT WILL BE STALLED
ACROSS THE SOUTH. THERE IS LOW CONFIDENCE IN POP FORECAST FOR
SUNDAY...AS GUIDANCE IS NOT IN GOOD AGREEMENT...AND WILL BE REFINED
IN LATER FORECASTS.

LONG TERM...MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY

THE PATTERN WILL BE ACTIVE IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD. A STORM SYSTEM
WILL TRACK FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS TO THE GREAT LAKES
MONDAY/TUESDAY. AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM...RAIN CHANCES WILL INCREASE
ON MONDAY AND IT WILL BEGIN WARMING UP. IT WILL BE MILD ON TUESDAY
AS THE SYSTEM DRAGS A COLD FRONT INTO THE REGION. THUNDERSTORMS WILL
BE POSSIBLE AS THE FRONT GOES THROUGH.

THE FRONT MAY STALL FOR A TIME TUESDAY NIGHT/WEDNESDAY
MORNING...WITH SHOWERS/A FEW THUNDERSTORMS REMAINING POSSIBLE MAINLY
OVER THE SOUTHEAST HALF OF ARKANSAS.

A SECONDARY FRONT WILL SURGE ACROSS THE AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT...AND
THE BRIEF PERIOD OF SPRING WILL COME TO A CLOSE. WINTER WILL COME
BACK...WITH TEMPERATURES ON THE WAY DOWN. THERE MAY BE A LITTLE
LIGHT SNOW WITH THE FRONT...BUT IT DOES NOT LOOK LIKE ANYTHING
MAJOR.

THE PERIOD WILL END WITH CLOUDS DECREASING ON THURSDAY AND BELOW
NORMAL TEMPERATURES.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BATESVILLE AR     14  27  19  37 /   0  10  10  10
CAMDEN AR         22  34  25  45 /   0  10  10  10
HARRISON AR        8  24  16  33 /   0  20  20  30
HOT SPRINGS AR    19  30  22  39 /   0  20  10  10
LITTLE ROCK   AR  18  30  22  40 /   0  10  10  10
MONTICELLO AR     22  33  25  45 /   0  10  10  10
MOUNT IDA AR      17  29  21  39 /   0  20  20  20
MOUNTAIN HOME AR   9  25  17  34 /   0  10  20  20
NEWPORT AR        16  27  20  38 /   0  10  10  10
PINE BLUFF AR     20  31  24  42 /   0  10  10  10
RUSSELLVILLE AR   16  29  20  37 /   0  20  20  20
SEARCY AR         16  29  20  39 /   0  10  10  10
STUTTGART AR      19  30  23  41 /   0  10  10  10
&&

.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&

$$


AVIATION...65





000
FXUS64 KLZK 270535
AFDLZK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
1135 PM CST THU FEB 26 2015

.AVIATION...

HIGH PRESSURE HAS SETTLED INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS...BRINGING LIGHT
NNE WINDS TO THE AREA. MEANWHILE...CLOUDS WILL INCREASE FROM THE
WEST AHEAD OF THE NEXT WEATHER SYSTEM...WITH CEILINGS GENERALLY
LOWERING...BUT REMAINING VFR. WINDS WILL BECOME EASTERLY THROUGH
THE DAY FRIDAY AS THE HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS EAST AND THE STORM
SYSTEM APPROACHES. SOME SMALL CHANCES FOR LIGHT SNOW COULD BE
NOTED LATE IN THE PERIOD FOR KHRO...KBPK...KHOT...AND KADF.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 854 PM CST THU FEB 26 2015/

UPDATE...

HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE INTO THE STATE TONIGHT. MID AND HIGH
CLOUDS WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA PERIODICALLY THROUGH THE NIGHT.
THE HIGH WILL BRING IN COLDER TEMPERATURES AND LOWS WILL BE IN THE
SINGLE DIGITS TO LOWER 20S. MADE ONLY MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO THE
TEMPERATURES AND DEW POINTS BASED ON CURRENT OBSERVATIONS AND
TRENDS. ALSO ADJUSTED CLOUD COVER.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 548 PM CST THU FEB 26 2015/

AVIATION...

LOW CLOUDS CONTINUE IN SOUTHEAST ARKANSAS. THESE ARE SLOWLY
ERODING FROM THE NORTHWEST AS STRONG HIGH PRESSURE MOVES INTO
ARKANSAS. HIGH CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE OVERNIGHT. MID CLOUDS WILL
INCREASE DURING THE DAY FRIDAY AS THE NEXT SYSTEM APPROACHES FROM
THE WEST. THERE WILL BE A CHANCE OF LIGHT SNOW IN NORTH AND WEST
SECTIONS OF THE STATE BY LATE IN THE PERIOD. THOUGH SOME MVFR
CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE IN THE SOUTHEAST EARLY THIS EVENING...MOST
OF THE PERIOD WILL BE VFR.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 329 PM CST THU FEB 26 2015/

SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT

FLURRIES HAVE BEEN MOVING THROUGH THE STATE TODAY...BUT TEMPERATURES
HAVE CLIMBED ABOVE FREEZING ACROSS THE SOUTH...EVEN WITH THE
SNOW PACK. HIGH PRESSURE MOVING IN TONIGHT WILL BRING COLD
TEMPERATURES...WITH LOWS IN THE NORTH IN THE SINGLE DIGITS. WINDS
WILL STAY ELEVATED THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING...BEFORE CALMING
SOMEWHAT. WIND CHILL READINGS WILL FALL BELOW ZERO OVERNIGHT ACROSS
THE NORTH...BUT WITH WINDS REMAINING BELOW 10 MPH...AN ADVISORY IS
NOT NEEDED.

THE COLD TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE REGION ON FRIDAY...WITH
MOST AREAS REMAINING BELOW FREEZING. GUIDANCE HAS SHOWN FOR THE LAST
FEW RUNS SOME LIGHT SNOW POSSIBLE ACROSS THE WEST FRIDAY AFTERNOON
AND EVENING...BUT NOT EXPECTING MUCH MORE THAN FLURRIES/VERY LIGHT
SNOW DUE TO LIMITED MOISTURE.

ANOTHER SYSTEM WILL APPROACH THE REGION SATURDAY...AS THE RETURN
FLOW BRINGS SOME WARMER TEMPERATURES TO THE REGION. HOWEVER...THIS
WILL ALSO BRING MOISTURE BACK FROM THE GULF. THERE IS STILL QUESTION
ABOUT MOISTURE AMOUNTS AND TEMPERATURES...AND HAVE KEPT CONSERVATIVE
FORECAST GOING IN REGARDS TO FREEZING PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE NORTH
SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY MORNING.

TEMPERATURES WILL WARM SUNDAY...WITH HIGHS CLIMBING INTO THE 40S.
HAVE ADDED ISOLATED THUNDER TO THE SOUTH...AS FRONT WILL BE STALLED
ACROSS THE SOUTH. THERE IS LOW CONFIDENCE IN POP FORECAST FOR
SUNDAY...AS GUIDANCE IS NOT IN GOOD AGREEMENT...AND WILL BE REFINED
IN LATER FORECASTS.

LONG TERM...MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY

THE PATTERN WILL BE ACTIVE IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD. A STORM SYSTEM
WILL TRACK FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS TO THE GREAT LAKES
MONDAY/TUESDAY. AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM...RAIN CHANCES WILL INCREASE
ON MONDAY AND IT WILL BEGIN WARMING UP. IT WILL BE MILD ON TUESDAY
AS THE SYSTEM DRAGS A COLD FRONT INTO THE REGION. THUNDERSTORMS WILL
BE POSSIBLE AS THE FRONT GOES THROUGH.

THE FRONT MAY STALL FOR A TIME TUESDAY NIGHT/WEDNESDAY
MORNING...WITH SHOWERS/A FEW THUNDERSTORMS REMAINING POSSIBLE MAINLY
OVER THE SOUTHEAST HALF OF ARKANSAS.

A SECONDARY FRONT WILL SURGE ACROSS THE AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT...AND
THE BRIEF PERIOD OF SPRING WILL COME TO A CLOSE. WINTER WILL COME
BACK...WITH TEMPERATURES ON THE WAY DOWN. THERE MAY BE A LITTLE
LIGHT SNOW WITH THE FRONT...BUT IT DOES NOT LOOK LIKE ANYTHING
MAJOR.

THE PERIOD WILL END WITH CLOUDS DECREASING ON THURSDAY AND BELOW
NORMAL TEMPERATURES.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BATESVILLE AR     14  27  19  37 /   0  10  10  10
CAMDEN AR         22  34  25  45 /   0  10  10  10
HARRISON AR        8  24  16  33 /   0  20  20  30
HOT SPRINGS AR    19  30  22  39 /   0  20  10  10
LITTLE ROCK   AR  18  30  22  40 /   0  10  10  10
MONTICELLO AR     22  33  25  45 /   0  10  10  10
MOUNT IDA AR      17  29  21  39 /   0  20  20  20
MOUNTAIN HOME AR   9  25  17  34 /   0  10  20  20
NEWPORT AR        16  27  20  38 /   0  10  10  10
PINE BLUFF AR     20  31  24  42 /   0  10  10  10
RUSSELLVILLE AR   16  29  20  37 /   0  20  20  20
SEARCY AR         16  29  20  39 /   0  10  10  10
STUTTGART AR      19  30  23  41 /   0  10  10  10
&&

.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&

$$


AVIATION...65





000
FXUS64 KLZK 270254
AFDLZK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
854 PM CST THU FEB 26 2015

.UPDATE...

HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE INTO THE STATE TONIGHT. MID AND HIGH
CLOUDS WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA PERIODICALLY THROUGH THE NIGHT.
THE HIGH WILL BRING IN COLDER TEMPERATURES AND LOWS WILL BE IN THE
SINGLE DIGITS TO LOWER 20S. MADE ONLY MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO THE
TEMPERATURES AND DEW POINTS BASED ON CURRENT OBSERVATIONS AND
TRENDS. ALSO ADJUSTED CLOUD COVER.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 548 PM CST THU FEB 26 2015/

AVIATION...

LOW CLOUDS CONTINUE IN SOUTHEAST ARKANSAS. THESE ARE SLOWLY
ERODING FROM THE NORTHWEST AS STRONG HIGH PRESSURE MOVES INTO
ARKANSAS. HIGH CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE OVERNIGHT. MID CLOUDS WILL
INCREASE DURING THE DAY FRIDAY AS THE NEXT SYSTEM APPROACHES FROM
THE WEST. THERE WILL BE A CHANCE OF LIGHT SNOW IN NORTH AND WEST
SECTIONS OF THE STATE BY LATE IN THE PERIOD. THOUGH SOME MVFR
CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE IN THE SOUTHEAST EARLY THIS EVENING...MOST
OF THE PERIOD WILL BE VFR.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 329 PM CST THU FEB 26 2015/

SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT

FLURRIES HAVE BEEN MOVING THROUGH THE STATE TODAY...BUT TEMPERATURES
HAVE CLIMBED ABOVE FREEZING ACROSS THE SOUTH...EVEN WITH THE
SNOW PACK. HIGH PRESSURE MOVING IN TONIGHT WILL BRING COLD
TEMPERATURES...WITH LOWS IN THE NORTH IN THE SINGLE DIGITS. WINDS
WILL STAY ELEVATED THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING...BEFORE CALMING
SOMEWHAT. WIND CHILL READINGS WILL FALL BELOW ZERO OVERNIGHT ACROSS
THE NORTH...BUT WITH WINDS REMAINING BELOW 10 MPH...AN ADVISORY IS
NOT NEEDED.

THE COLD TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE REGION ON FRIDAY...WITH
MOST AREAS REMAINING BELOW FREEZING. GUIDANCE HAS SHOWN FOR THE LAST
FEW RUNS SOME LIGHT SNOW POSSIBLE ACROSS THE WEST FRIDAY AFTERNOON
AND EVENING...BUT NOT EXPECTING MUCH MORE THAN FLURRIES/VERY LIGHT
SNOW DUE TO LIMITED MOISTURE.

ANOTHER SYSTEM WILL APPROACH THE REGION SATURDAY...AS THE RETURN
FLOW BRINGS SOME WARMER TEMPERATURES TO THE REGION. HOWEVER...THIS
WILL ALSO BRING MOISTURE BACK FROM THE GULF. THERE IS STILL QUESTION
ABOUT MOISTURE AMOUNTS AND TEMPERATURES...AND HAVE KEPT CONSERVATIVE
FORECAST GOING IN REGARDS TO FREEZING PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE NORTH
SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY MORNING.

TEMPERATURES WILL WARM SUNDAY...WITH HIGHS CLIMBING INTO THE 40S.
HAVE ADDED ISOLATED THUNDER TO THE SOUTH...AS FRONT WILL BE STALLED
ACROSS THE SOUTH. THERE IS LOW CONFIDENCE IN POP FORECAST FOR
SUNDAY...AS GUIDANCE IS NOT IN GOOD AGREEMENT...AND WILL BE REFINED
IN LATER FORECASTS.

LONG TERM...MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY

THE PATTERN WILL BE ACTIVE IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD. A STORM SYSTEM
WILL TRACK FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS TO THE GREAT LAKES
MONDAY/TUESDAY. AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM...RAIN CHANCES WILL INCREASE
ON MONDAY AND IT WILL BEGIN WARMING UP. IT WILL BE MILD ON TUESDAY
AS THE SYSTEM DRAGS A COLD FRONT INTO THE REGION. THUNDERSTORMS WILL
BE POSSIBLE AS THE FRONT GOES THROUGH.

THE FRONT MAY STALL FOR A TIME TUESDAY NIGHT/WEDNESDAY
MORNING...WITH SHOWERS/A FEW THUNDERSTORMS REMAINING POSSIBLE MAINLY
OVER THE SOUTHEAST HALF OF ARKANSAS.

A SECONDARY FRONT WILL SURGE ACROSS THE AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT...AND
THE BRIEF PERIOD OF SPRING WILL COME TO A CLOSE. WINTER WILL COME
BACK...WITH TEMPERATURES ON THE WAY DOWN. THERE MAY BE A LITTLE
LIGHT SNOW WITH THE FRONT...BUT IT DOES NOT LOOK LIKE ANYTHING
MAJOR.

THE PERIOD WILL END WITH CLOUDS DECREASING ON THURSDAY AND BELOW
NORMAL TEMPERATURES.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BATESVILLE AR     14  27  19  37 /   0  10  10  10
CAMDEN AR         22  34  25  45 /   0  10  10  10
HARRISON AR        8  24  16  33 /   0  20  20  30
HOT SPRINGS AR    19  30  22  39 /   0  20  10  10
LITTLE ROCK   AR  18  30  22  40 /   0  10  10  10
MONTICELLO AR     22  33  25  45 /   0  10  10  10
MOUNT IDA AR      17  29  21  39 /   0  20  20  20
MOUNTAIN HOME AR   9  25  17  34 /   0  10  20  20
NEWPORT AR        16  27  20  38 /   0  10  10  10
PINE BLUFF AR     20  31  24  42 /   0  10  10  10
RUSSELLVILLE AR   16  29  20  37 /   0  20  20  20
SEARCY AR         16  29  20  39 /   0  10  10  10
STUTTGART AR      19  30  23  41 /   0  10  10  10
&&

.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&

$$

51






000
FXUS64 KLZK 270254
AFDLZK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
854 PM CST THU FEB 26 2015

.UPDATE...

HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE INTO THE STATE TONIGHT. MID AND HIGH
CLOUDS WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA PERIODICALLY THROUGH THE NIGHT.
THE HIGH WILL BRING IN COLDER TEMPERATURES AND LOWS WILL BE IN THE
SINGLE DIGITS TO LOWER 20S. MADE ONLY MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO THE
TEMPERATURES AND DEW POINTS BASED ON CURRENT OBSERVATIONS AND
TRENDS. ALSO ADJUSTED CLOUD COVER.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 548 PM CST THU FEB 26 2015/

AVIATION...

LOW CLOUDS CONTINUE IN SOUTHEAST ARKANSAS. THESE ARE SLOWLY
ERODING FROM THE NORTHWEST AS STRONG HIGH PRESSURE MOVES INTO
ARKANSAS. HIGH CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE OVERNIGHT. MID CLOUDS WILL
INCREASE DURING THE DAY FRIDAY AS THE NEXT SYSTEM APPROACHES FROM
THE WEST. THERE WILL BE A CHANCE OF LIGHT SNOW IN NORTH AND WEST
SECTIONS OF THE STATE BY LATE IN THE PERIOD. THOUGH SOME MVFR
CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE IN THE SOUTHEAST EARLY THIS EVENING...MOST
OF THE PERIOD WILL BE VFR.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 329 PM CST THU FEB 26 2015/

SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT

FLURRIES HAVE BEEN MOVING THROUGH THE STATE TODAY...BUT TEMPERATURES
HAVE CLIMBED ABOVE FREEZING ACROSS THE SOUTH...EVEN WITH THE
SNOW PACK. HIGH PRESSURE MOVING IN TONIGHT WILL BRING COLD
TEMPERATURES...WITH LOWS IN THE NORTH IN THE SINGLE DIGITS. WINDS
WILL STAY ELEVATED THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING...BEFORE CALMING
SOMEWHAT. WIND CHILL READINGS WILL FALL BELOW ZERO OVERNIGHT ACROSS
THE NORTH...BUT WITH WINDS REMAINING BELOW 10 MPH...AN ADVISORY IS
NOT NEEDED.

THE COLD TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE REGION ON FRIDAY...WITH
MOST AREAS REMAINING BELOW FREEZING. GUIDANCE HAS SHOWN FOR THE LAST
FEW RUNS SOME LIGHT SNOW POSSIBLE ACROSS THE WEST FRIDAY AFTERNOON
AND EVENING...BUT NOT EXPECTING MUCH MORE THAN FLURRIES/VERY LIGHT
SNOW DUE TO LIMITED MOISTURE.

ANOTHER SYSTEM WILL APPROACH THE REGION SATURDAY...AS THE RETURN
FLOW BRINGS SOME WARMER TEMPERATURES TO THE REGION. HOWEVER...THIS
WILL ALSO BRING MOISTURE BACK FROM THE GULF. THERE IS STILL QUESTION
ABOUT MOISTURE AMOUNTS AND TEMPERATURES...AND HAVE KEPT CONSERVATIVE
FORECAST GOING IN REGARDS TO FREEZING PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE NORTH
SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY MORNING.

TEMPERATURES WILL WARM SUNDAY...WITH HIGHS CLIMBING INTO THE 40S.
HAVE ADDED ISOLATED THUNDER TO THE SOUTH...AS FRONT WILL BE STALLED
ACROSS THE SOUTH. THERE IS LOW CONFIDENCE IN POP FORECAST FOR
SUNDAY...AS GUIDANCE IS NOT IN GOOD AGREEMENT...AND WILL BE REFINED
IN LATER FORECASTS.

LONG TERM...MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY

THE PATTERN WILL BE ACTIVE IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD. A STORM SYSTEM
WILL TRACK FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS TO THE GREAT LAKES
MONDAY/TUESDAY. AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM...RAIN CHANCES WILL INCREASE
ON MONDAY AND IT WILL BEGIN WARMING UP. IT WILL BE MILD ON TUESDAY
AS THE SYSTEM DRAGS A COLD FRONT INTO THE REGION. THUNDERSTORMS WILL
BE POSSIBLE AS THE FRONT GOES THROUGH.

THE FRONT MAY STALL FOR A TIME TUESDAY NIGHT/WEDNESDAY
MORNING...WITH SHOWERS/A FEW THUNDERSTORMS REMAINING POSSIBLE MAINLY
OVER THE SOUTHEAST HALF OF ARKANSAS.

A SECONDARY FRONT WILL SURGE ACROSS THE AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT...AND
THE BRIEF PERIOD OF SPRING WILL COME TO A CLOSE. WINTER WILL COME
BACK...WITH TEMPERATURES ON THE WAY DOWN. THERE MAY BE A LITTLE
LIGHT SNOW WITH THE FRONT...BUT IT DOES NOT LOOK LIKE ANYTHING
MAJOR.

THE PERIOD WILL END WITH CLOUDS DECREASING ON THURSDAY AND BELOW
NORMAL TEMPERATURES.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BATESVILLE AR     14  27  19  37 /   0  10  10  10
CAMDEN AR         22  34  25  45 /   0  10  10  10
HARRISON AR        8  24  16  33 /   0  20  20  30
HOT SPRINGS AR    19  30  22  39 /   0  20  10  10
LITTLE ROCK   AR  18  30  22  40 /   0  10  10  10
MONTICELLO AR     22  33  25  45 /   0  10  10  10
MOUNT IDA AR      17  29  21  39 /   0  20  20  20
MOUNTAIN HOME AR   9  25  17  34 /   0  10  20  20
NEWPORT AR        16  27  20  38 /   0  10  10  10
PINE BLUFF AR     20  31  24  42 /   0  10  10  10
RUSSELLVILLE AR   16  29  20  37 /   0  20  20  20
SEARCY AR         16  29  20  39 /   0  10  10  10
STUTTGART AR      19  30  23  41 /   0  10  10  10
&&

.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&

$$

51





000
FXUS64 KLZK 262348
AFDLZK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
548 PM CST THU FEB 26 2015

.AVIATION...

LOW CLOUDS CONTINUE IN SOUTHEAST ARKANSAS. THESE ARE SLOWLY
ERODING FROM THE NORTHWEST AS STRONG HIGH PRESSURE MOVES INTO
ARKANSAS. HIGH CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE OVERNIGHT. MID CLOUDS WILL
INCREASE DURING THE DAY FRIDAY AS THE NEXT SYSTEM APPROACHES FROM
THE WEST. THERE WILL BE A CHANCE OF LIGHT SNOW IN NORTH AND WEST
SECTIONS OF THE STATE BY LATE IN THE PERIOD. THOUGH SOME MVFR
CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE IN THE SOUTHEAST EARLY THIS EVENING...MOST
OF THE PERIOD WILL BE VFR.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 329 PM CST THU FEB 26 2015/

SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT

FLURRIES HAVE BEEN MOVING THROUGH THE STATE TODAY...BUT TEMPERATURES
HAVE CLIMBED ABOVE FREEZING ACROSS THE SOUTH...EVEN WITH THE
SNOW PACK. HIGH PRESSURE MOVING IN TONIGHT WILL BRING COLD
TEMPERATURES...WITH LOWS IN THE NORTH IN THE SINGLE DIGITS. WINDS
WILL STAY ELEVATED THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING...BEFORE CALMING
SOMEWHAT. WIND CHILL READINGS WILL FALL BELOW ZERO OVERNIGHT ACROSS
THE NORTH...BUT WITH WINDS REMAINING BELOW 10 MPH...AN ADVISORY IS
NOT NEEDED.

THE COLD TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE REGION ON FRIDAY...WITH
MOST AREAS REMAINING BELOW FREEZING. GUIDANCE HAS SHOWN FOR THE LAST
FEW RUNS SOME LIGHT SNOW POSSIBLE ACROSS THE WEST FRIDAY AFTERNOON
AND EVENING...BUT NOT EXPECTING MUCH MORE THAN FLURRIES/VERY LIGHT
SNOW DUE TO LIMITED MOISTURE.

ANOTHER SYSTEM WILL APPROACH THE REGION SATURDAY...AS THE RETURN
FLOW BRINGS SOME WARMER TEMPERATURES TO THE REGION. HOWEVER...THIS
WILL ALSO BRING MOISTURE BACK FROM THE GULF. THERE IS STILL QUESTION
ABOUT MOISTURE AMOUNTS AND TEMPERATURES...AND HAVE KEPT CONSERVATIVE
FORECAST GOING IN REGARDS TO FREEZING PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE NORTH
SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY MORNING.

TEMPERATURES WILL WARM SUNDAY...WITH HIGHS CLIMBING INTO THE 40S.
HAVE ADDED ISOLATED THUNDER TO THE SOUTH...AS FRONT WILL BE STALLED
ACROSS THE SOUTH. THERE IS LOW CONFIDENCE IN POP FORECAST FOR
SUNDAY...AS GUIDANCE IS NOT IN GOOD AGREEMENT...AND WILL BE REFINED
IN LATER FORECASTS.

LONG TERM...MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY

THE PATTERN WILL BE ACTIVE IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD. A STORM SYSTEM
WILL TRACK FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS TO THE GREAT LAKES
MONDAY/TUESDAY. AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM...RAIN CHANCES WILL INCREASE
ON MONDAY AND IT WILL BEGIN WARMING UP. IT WILL BE MILD ON TUESDAY
AS THE SYSTEM DRAGS A COLD FRONT INTO THE REGION. THUNDERSTORMS WILL
BE POSSIBLE AS THE FRONT GOES THROUGH.

THE FRONT MAY STALL FOR A TIME TUESDAY NIGHT/WEDNESDAY
MORNING...WITH SHOWERS/A FEW THUNDERSTORMS REMAINING POSSIBLE MAINLY
OVER THE SOUTHEAST HALF OF ARKANSAS.

A SECONDARY FRONT WILL SURGE ACROSS THE AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT...AND
THE BRIEF PERIOD OF SPRING WILL COME TO A CLOSE. WINTER WILL COME
BACK...WITH TEMPERATURES ON THE WAY DOWN. THERE MAY BE A LITTLE
LIGHT SNOW WITH THE FRONT...BUT IT DOES NOT LOOK LIKE ANYTHING
MAJOR.

THE PERIOD WILL END WITH CLOUDS DECREASING ON THURSDAY AND BELOW
NORMAL TEMPERATURES.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BATESVILLE AR     15  27  19  37 /   0  10  10  10
CAMDEN AR         22  34  25  45 /   0  10  10  10
HARRISON AR        9  24  16  33 /   0  20  20  30
HOT SPRINGS AR    20  30  22  39 /   0  20  10  10
LITTLE ROCK   AR  19  30  22  40 /   0  10  10  10
MONTICELLO AR     22  33  25  45 /   0  10  10  10
MOUNT IDA AR      18  29  21  39 /   0  20  20  20
MOUNTAIN HOME AR  11  25  17  34 /   0  10  20  20
NEWPORT AR        15  27  20  38 /   0  10  10  10
PINE BLUFF AR     21  31  24  42 /   0  10  10  10
RUSSELLVILLE AR   17  29  20  37 /   0  20  20  20
SEARCY AR         17  29  20  39 /   0  10  10  10
STUTTGART AR      19  30  23  41 /   0  10  10  10
&&

.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&

$$


AVIATION...51





000
FXUS64 KLZK 262348
AFDLZK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
548 PM CST THU FEB 26 2015

.AVIATION...

LOW CLOUDS CONTINUE IN SOUTHEAST ARKANSAS. THESE ARE SLOWLY
ERODING FROM THE NORTHWEST AS STRONG HIGH PRESSURE MOVES INTO
ARKANSAS. HIGH CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE OVERNIGHT. MID CLOUDS WILL
INCREASE DURING THE DAY FRIDAY AS THE NEXT SYSTEM APPROACHES FROM
THE WEST. THERE WILL BE A CHANCE OF LIGHT SNOW IN NORTH AND WEST
SECTIONS OF THE STATE BY LATE IN THE PERIOD. THOUGH SOME MVFR
CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE IN THE SOUTHEAST EARLY THIS EVENING...MOST
OF THE PERIOD WILL BE VFR.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 329 PM CST THU FEB 26 2015/

SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT

FLURRIES HAVE BEEN MOVING THROUGH THE STATE TODAY...BUT TEMPERATURES
HAVE CLIMBED ABOVE FREEZING ACROSS THE SOUTH...EVEN WITH THE
SNOW PACK. HIGH PRESSURE MOVING IN TONIGHT WILL BRING COLD
TEMPERATURES...WITH LOWS IN THE NORTH IN THE SINGLE DIGITS. WINDS
WILL STAY ELEVATED THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING...BEFORE CALMING
SOMEWHAT. WIND CHILL READINGS WILL FALL BELOW ZERO OVERNIGHT ACROSS
THE NORTH...BUT WITH WINDS REMAINING BELOW 10 MPH...AN ADVISORY IS
NOT NEEDED.

THE COLD TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE REGION ON FRIDAY...WITH
MOST AREAS REMAINING BELOW FREEZING. GUIDANCE HAS SHOWN FOR THE LAST
FEW RUNS SOME LIGHT SNOW POSSIBLE ACROSS THE WEST FRIDAY AFTERNOON
AND EVENING...BUT NOT EXPECTING MUCH MORE THAN FLURRIES/VERY LIGHT
SNOW DUE TO LIMITED MOISTURE.

ANOTHER SYSTEM WILL APPROACH THE REGION SATURDAY...AS THE RETURN
FLOW BRINGS SOME WARMER TEMPERATURES TO THE REGION. HOWEVER...THIS
WILL ALSO BRING MOISTURE BACK FROM THE GULF. THERE IS STILL QUESTION
ABOUT MOISTURE AMOUNTS AND TEMPERATURES...AND HAVE KEPT CONSERVATIVE
FORECAST GOING IN REGARDS TO FREEZING PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE NORTH
SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY MORNING.

TEMPERATURES WILL WARM SUNDAY...WITH HIGHS CLIMBING INTO THE 40S.
HAVE ADDED ISOLATED THUNDER TO THE SOUTH...AS FRONT WILL BE STALLED
ACROSS THE SOUTH. THERE IS LOW CONFIDENCE IN POP FORECAST FOR
SUNDAY...AS GUIDANCE IS NOT IN GOOD AGREEMENT...AND WILL BE REFINED
IN LATER FORECASTS.

LONG TERM...MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY

THE PATTERN WILL BE ACTIVE IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD. A STORM SYSTEM
WILL TRACK FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS TO THE GREAT LAKES
MONDAY/TUESDAY. AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM...RAIN CHANCES WILL INCREASE
ON MONDAY AND IT WILL BEGIN WARMING UP. IT WILL BE MILD ON TUESDAY
AS THE SYSTEM DRAGS A COLD FRONT INTO THE REGION. THUNDERSTORMS WILL
BE POSSIBLE AS THE FRONT GOES THROUGH.

THE FRONT MAY STALL FOR A TIME TUESDAY NIGHT/WEDNESDAY
MORNING...WITH SHOWERS/A FEW THUNDERSTORMS REMAINING POSSIBLE MAINLY
OVER THE SOUTHEAST HALF OF ARKANSAS.

A SECONDARY FRONT WILL SURGE ACROSS THE AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT...AND
THE BRIEF PERIOD OF SPRING WILL COME TO A CLOSE. WINTER WILL COME
BACK...WITH TEMPERATURES ON THE WAY DOWN. THERE MAY BE A LITTLE
LIGHT SNOW WITH THE FRONT...BUT IT DOES NOT LOOK LIKE ANYTHING
MAJOR.

THE PERIOD WILL END WITH CLOUDS DECREASING ON THURSDAY AND BELOW
NORMAL TEMPERATURES.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BATESVILLE AR     15  27  19  37 /   0  10  10  10
CAMDEN AR         22  34  25  45 /   0  10  10  10
HARRISON AR        9  24  16  33 /   0  20  20  30
HOT SPRINGS AR    20  30  22  39 /   0  20  10  10
LITTLE ROCK   AR  19  30  22  40 /   0  10  10  10
MONTICELLO AR     22  33  25  45 /   0  10  10  10
MOUNT IDA AR      18  29  21  39 /   0  20  20  20
MOUNTAIN HOME AR  11  25  17  34 /   0  10  20  20
NEWPORT AR        15  27  20  38 /   0  10  10  10
PINE BLUFF AR     21  31  24  42 /   0  10  10  10
RUSSELLVILLE AR   17  29  20  37 /   0  20  20  20
SEARCY AR         17  29  20  39 /   0  10  10  10
STUTTGART AR      19  30  23  41 /   0  10  10  10
&&

.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&

$$


AVIATION...51






000
FXUS64 KLZK 262348
AFDLZK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
548 PM CST THU FEB 26 2015

.AVIATION...

LOW CLOUDS CONTINUE IN SOUTHEAST ARKANSAS. THESE ARE SLOWLY
ERODING FROM THE NORTHWEST AS STRONG HIGH PRESSURE MOVES INTO
ARKANSAS. HIGH CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE OVERNIGHT. MID CLOUDS WILL
INCREASE DURING THE DAY FRIDAY AS THE NEXT SYSTEM APPROACHES FROM
THE WEST. THERE WILL BE A CHANCE OF LIGHT SNOW IN NORTH AND WEST
SECTIONS OF THE STATE BY LATE IN THE PERIOD. THOUGH SOME MVFR
CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE IN THE SOUTHEAST EARLY THIS EVENING...MOST
OF THE PERIOD WILL BE VFR.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 329 PM CST THU FEB 26 2015/

SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT

FLURRIES HAVE BEEN MOVING THROUGH THE STATE TODAY...BUT TEMPERATURES
HAVE CLIMBED ABOVE FREEZING ACROSS THE SOUTH...EVEN WITH THE
SNOW PACK. HIGH PRESSURE MOVING IN TONIGHT WILL BRING COLD
TEMPERATURES...WITH LOWS IN THE NORTH IN THE SINGLE DIGITS. WINDS
WILL STAY ELEVATED THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING...BEFORE CALMING
SOMEWHAT. WIND CHILL READINGS WILL FALL BELOW ZERO OVERNIGHT ACROSS
THE NORTH...BUT WITH WINDS REMAINING BELOW 10 MPH...AN ADVISORY IS
NOT NEEDED.

THE COLD TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE REGION ON FRIDAY...WITH
MOST AREAS REMAINING BELOW FREEZING. GUIDANCE HAS SHOWN FOR THE LAST
FEW RUNS SOME LIGHT SNOW POSSIBLE ACROSS THE WEST FRIDAY AFTERNOON
AND EVENING...BUT NOT EXPECTING MUCH MORE THAN FLURRIES/VERY LIGHT
SNOW DUE TO LIMITED MOISTURE.

ANOTHER SYSTEM WILL APPROACH THE REGION SATURDAY...AS THE RETURN
FLOW BRINGS SOME WARMER TEMPERATURES TO THE REGION. HOWEVER...THIS
WILL ALSO BRING MOISTURE BACK FROM THE GULF. THERE IS STILL QUESTION
ABOUT MOISTURE AMOUNTS AND TEMPERATURES...AND HAVE KEPT CONSERVATIVE
FORECAST GOING IN REGARDS TO FREEZING PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE NORTH
SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY MORNING.

TEMPERATURES WILL WARM SUNDAY...WITH HIGHS CLIMBING INTO THE 40S.
HAVE ADDED ISOLATED THUNDER TO THE SOUTH...AS FRONT WILL BE STALLED
ACROSS THE SOUTH. THERE IS LOW CONFIDENCE IN POP FORECAST FOR
SUNDAY...AS GUIDANCE IS NOT IN GOOD AGREEMENT...AND WILL BE REFINED
IN LATER FORECASTS.

LONG TERM...MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY

THE PATTERN WILL BE ACTIVE IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD. A STORM SYSTEM
WILL TRACK FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS TO THE GREAT LAKES
MONDAY/TUESDAY. AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM...RAIN CHANCES WILL INCREASE
ON MONDAY AND IT WILL BEGIN WARMING UP. IT WILL BE MILD ON TUESDAY
AS THE SYSTEM DRAGS A COLD FRONT INTO THE REGION. THUNDERSTORMS WILL
BE POSSIBLE AS THE FRONT GOES THROUGH.

THE FRONT MAY STALL FOR A TIME TUESDAY NIGHT/WEDNESDAY
MORNING...WITH SHOWERS/A FEW THUNDERSTORMS REMAINING POSSIBLE MAINLY
OVER THE SOUTHEAST HALF OF ARKANSAS.

A SECONDARY FRONT WILL SURGE ACROSS THE AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT...AND
THE BRIEF PERIOD OF SPRING WILL COME TO A CLOSE. WINTER WILL COME
BACK...WITH TEMPERATURES ON THE WAY DOWN. THERE MAY BE A LITTLE
LIGHT SNOW WITH THE FRONT...BUT IT DOES NOT LOOK LIKE ANYTHING
MAJOR.

THE PERIOD WILL END WITH CLOUDS DECREASING ON THURSDAY AND BELOW
NORMAL TEMPERATURES.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BATESVILLE AR     15  27  19  37 /   0  10  10  10
CAMDEN AR         22  34  25  45 /   0  10  10  10
HARRISON AR        9  24  16  33 /   0  20  20  30
HOT SPRINGS AR    20  30  22  39 /   0  20  10  10
LITTLE ROCK   AR  19  30  22  40 /   0  10  10  10
MONTICELLO AR     22  33  25  45 /   0  10  10  10
MOUNT IDA AR      18  29  21  39 /   0  20  20  20
MOUNTAIN HOME AR  11  25  17  34 /   0  10  20  20
NEWPORT AR        15  27  20  38 /   0  10  10  10
PINE BLUFF AR     21  31  24  42 /   0  10  10  10
RUSSELLVILLE AR   17  29  20  37 /   0  20  20  20
SEARCY AR         17  29  20  39 /   0  10  10  10
STUTTGART AR      19  30  23  41 /   0  10  10  10
&&

.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&

$$


AVIATION...51





000
FXUS64 KLZK 262348
AFDLZK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
548 PM CST THU FEB 26 2015

.AVIATION...

LOW CLOUDS CONTINUE IN SOUTHEAST ARKANSAS. THESE ARE SLOWLY
ERODING FROM THE NORTHWEST AS STRONG HIGH PRESSURE MOVES INTO
ARKANSAS. HIGH CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE OVERNIGHT. MID CLOUDS WILL
INCREASE DURING THE DAY FRIDAY AS THE NEXT SYSTEM APPROACHES FROM
THE WEST. THERE WILL BE A CHANCE OF LIGHT SNOW IN NORTH AND WEST
SECTIONS OF THE STATE BY LATE IN THE PERIOD. THOUGH SOME MVFR
CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE IN THE SOUTHEAST EARLY THIS EVENING...MOST
OF THE PERIOD WILL BE VFR.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 329 PM CST THU FEB 26 2015/

SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT

FLURRIES HAVE BEEN MOVING THROUGH THE STATE TODAY...BUT TEMPERATURES
HAVE CLIMBED ABOVE FREEZING ACROSS THE SOUTH...EVEN WITH THE
SNOW PACK. HIGH PRESSURE MOVING IN TONIGHT WILL BRING COLD
TEMPERATURES...WITH LOWS IN THE NORTH IN THE SINGLE DIGITS. WINDS
WILL STAY ELEVATED THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING...BEFORE CALMING
SOMEWHAT. WIND CHILL READINGS WILL FALL BELOW ZERO OVERNIGHT ACROSS
THE NORTH...BUT WITH WINDS REMAINING BELOW 10 MPH...AN ADVISORY IS
NOT NEEDED.

THE COLD TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE REGION ON FRIDAY...WITH
MOST AREAS REMAINING BELOW FREEZING. GUIDANCE HAS SHOWN FOR THE LAST
FEW RUNS SOME LIGHT SNOW POSSIBLE ACROSS THE WEST FRIDAY AFTERNOON
AND EVENING...BUT NOT EXPECTING MUCH MORE THAN FLURRIES/VERY LIGHT
SNOW DUE TO LIMITED MOISTURE.

ANOTHER SYSTEM WILL APPROACH THE REGION SATURDAY...AS THE RETURN
FLOW BRINGS SOME WARMER TEMPERATURES TO THE REGION. HOWEVER...THIS
WILL ALSO BRING MOISTURE BACK FROM THE GULF. THERE IS STILL QUESTION
ABOUT MOISTURE AMOUNTS AND TEMPERATURES...AND HAVE KEPT CONSERVATIVE
FORECAST GOING IN REGARDS TO FREEZING PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE NORTH
SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY MORNING.

TEMPERATURES WILL WARM SUNDAY...WITH HIGHS CLIMBING INTO THE 40S.
HAVE ADDED ISOLATED THUNDER TO THE SOUTH...AS FRONT WILL BE STALLED
ACROSS THE SOUTH. THERE IS LOW CONFIDENCE IN POP FORECAST FOR
SUNDAY...AS GUIDANCE IS NOT IN GOOD AGREEMENT...AND WILL BE REFINED
IN LATER FORECASTS.

LONG TERM...MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY

THE PATTERN WILL BE ACTIVE IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD. A STORM SYSTEM
WILL TRACK FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS TO THE GREAT LAKES
MONDAY/TUESDAY. AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM...RAIN CHANCES WILL INCREASE
ON MONDAY AND IT WILL BEGIN WARMING UP. IT WILL BE MILD ON TUESDAY
AS THE SYSTEM DRAGS A COLD FRONT INTO THE REGION. THUNDERSTORMS WILL
BE POSSIBLE AS THE FRONT GOES THROUGH.

THE FRONT MAY STALL FOR A TIME TUESDAY NIGHT/WEDNESDAY
MORNING...WITH SHOWERS/A FEW THUNDERSTORMS REMAINING POSSIBLE MAINLY
OVER THE SOUTHEAST HALF OF ARKANSAS.

A SECONDARY FRONT WILL SURGE ACROSS THE AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT...AND
THE BRIEF PERIOD OF SPRING WILL COME TO A CLOSE. WINTER WILL COME
BACK...WITH TEMPERATURES ON THE WAY DOWN. THERE MAY BE A LITTLE
LIGHT SNOW WITH THE FRONT...BUT IT DOES NOT LOOK LIKE ANYTHING
MAJOR.

THE PERIOD WILL END WITH CLOUDS DECREASING ON THURSDAY AND BELOW
NORMAL TEMPERATURES.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BATESVILLE AR     15  27  19  37 /   0  10  10  10
CAMDEN AR         22  34  25  45 /   0  10  10  10
HARRISON AR        9  24  16  33 /   0  20  20  30
HOT SPRINGS AR    20  30  22  39 /   0  20  10  10
LITTLE ROCK   AR  19  30  22  40 /   0  10  10  10
MONTICELLO AR     22  33  25  45 /   0  10  10  10
MOUNT IDA AR      18  29  21  39 /   0  20  20  20
MOUNTAIN HOME AR  11  25  17  34 /   0  10  20  20
NEWPORT AR        15  27  20  38 /   0  10  10  10
PINE BLUFF AR     21  31  24  42 /   0  10  10  10
RUSSELLVILLE AR   17  29  20  37 /   0  20  20  20
SEARCY AR         17  29  20  39 /   0  10  10  10
STUTTGART AR      19  30  23  41 /   0  10  10  10
&&

.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&

$$


AVIATION...51






000
FXUS64 KLZK 262129
AFDLZK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
329 PM CST THU FEB 26 2015

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT

FLURRIES HAVE BEEN MOVING THROUGH THE STATE TODAY...BUT TEMPERATURES
HAVE CLIMBED ABOVE FREEZING ACROSS THE SOUTH...EVEN WITH THE
SNOW PACK. HIGH PRESSURE MOVING IN TONIGHT WILL BRING COLD
TEMPERATURES...WITH LOWS IN THE NORTH IN THE SINGLE DIGITS. WINDS
WILL STAY ELEVATED THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING...BEFORE CALMING
SOMEWHAT. WIND CHILL READINGS WILL FALL BELOW ZERO OVERNIGHT ACROSS
THE NORTH...BUT WITH WINDS REMAINING BELOW 10 MPH...AN ADVISORY IS
NOT NEEDED.

THE COLD TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE REGION ON FRIDAY...WITH
MOST AREAS REMAINING BELOW FREEZING. GUIDANCE HAS SHOWN FOR THE LAST
FEW RUNS SOME LIGHT SNOW POSSIBLE ACROSS THE WEST FRIDAY AFTERNOON
AND EVENING...BUT NOT EXPECTING MUCH MORE THAN FLURRIES/VERY LIGHT
SNOW DUE TO LIMITED MOISTURE.

ANOTHER SYSTEM WILL APPROACH THE REGION SATURDAY...AS THE RETURN
FLOW BRINGS SOME WARMER TEMPERATURES TO THE REGION. HOWEVER...THIS
WILL ALSO BRING MOISTURE BACK FROM THE GULF. THERE IS STILL QUESTION
ABOUT MOISTURE AMOUNTS AND TEMPERATURES...AND HAVE KEPT CONSERVATIVE
FORECAST GOING IN REGARDS TO FREEZING PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE NORTH
SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY MORNING.

TEMPERATURES WILL WARM SUNDAY...WITH HIGHS CLIMBING INTO THE 40S.
HAVE ADDED ISOLATED THUNDER TO THE SOUTH...AS FRONT WILL BE STALLED
ACROSS THE SOUTH. THERE IS LOW CONFIDENCE IN POP FORECAST FOR
SUNDAY...AS GUIDANCE IS NOT IN GOOD AGREEMENT...AND WILL BE REFINED
IN LATER FORECASTS.
&&

.LONG TERM...MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY

THE PATTERN WILL BE ACTIVE IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD. A STORM SYSTEM
WILL TRACK FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS TO THE GREAT LAKES
MONDAY/TUESDAY. AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM...RAIN CHANCES WILL INCREASE
ON MONDAY AND IT WILL BEGIN WARMING UP. IT WILL BE MILD ON TUESDAY
AS THE SYSTEM DRAGS A COLD FRONT INTO THE REGION. THUNDERSTORMS WILL
BE POSSIBLE AS THE FRONT GOES THROUGH.

THE FRONT MAY STALL FOR A TIME TUESDAY NIGHT/WEDNESDAY
MORNING...WITH SHOWERS/A FEW THUNDERSTORMS REMAINING POSSIBLE MAINLY
OVER THE SOUTHEAST HALF OF ARKANSAS.

A SECONDARY FRONT WILL SURGE ACROSS THE AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT...AND
THE BRIEF PERIOD OF SPRING WILL COME TO A CLOSE. WINTER WILL COME
BACK...WITH TEMPERATURES ON THE WAY DOWN. THERE MAY BE A LITTLE
LIGHT SNOW WITH THE FRONT...BUT IT DOES NOT LOOK LIKE ANYTHING
MAJOR.

THE PERIOD WILL END WITH CLOUDS DECREASING ON THURSDAY AND BELOW
NORMAL TEMPERATURES.
&&

.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...58 / LONG TERM...46





000
FXUS64 KLZK 262129
AFDLZK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
329 PM CST THU FEB 26 2015

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT

FLURRIES HAVE BEEN MOVING THROUGH THE STATE TODAY...BUT TEMPERATURES
HAVE CLIMBED ABOVE FREEZING ACROSS THE SOUTH...EVEN WITH THE
SNOW PACK. HIGH PRESSURE MOVING IN TONIGHT WILL BRING COLD
TEMPERATURES...WITH LOWS IN THE NORTH IN THE SINGLE DIGITS. WINDS
WILL STAY ELEVATED THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING...BEFORE CALMING
SOMEWHAT. WIND CHILL READINGS WILL FALL BELOW ZERO OVERNIGHT ACROSS
THE NORTH...BUT WITH WINDS REMAINING BELOW 10 MPH...AN ADVISORY IS
NOT NEEDED.

THE COLD TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE REGION ON FRIDAY...WITH
MOST AREAS REMAINING BELOW FREEZING. GUIDANCE HAS SHOWN FOR THE LAST
FEW RUNS SOME LIGHT SNOW POSSIBLE ACROSS THE WEST FRIDAY AFTERNOON
AND EVENING...BUT NOT EXPECTING MUCH MORE THAN FLURRIES/VERY LIGHT
SNOW DUE TO LIMITED MOISTURE.

ANOTHER SYSTEM WILL APPROACH THE REGION SATURDAY...AS THE RETURN
FLOW BRINGS SOME WARMER TEMPERATURES TO THE REGION. HOWEVER...THIS
WILL ALSO BRING MOISTURE BACK FROM THE GULF. THERE IS STILL QUESTION
ABOUT MOISTURE AMOUNTS AND TEMPERATURES...AND HAVE KEPT CONSERVATIVE
FORECAST GOING IN REGARDS TO FREEZING PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE NORTH
SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY MORNING.

TEMPERATURES WILL WARM SUNDAY...WITH HIGHS CLIMBING INTO THE 40S.
HAVE ADDED ISOLATED THUNDER TO THE SOUTH...AS FRONT WILL BE STALLED
ACROSS THE SOUTH. THERE IS LOW CONFIDENCE IN POP FORECAST FOR
SUNDAY...AS GUIDANCE IS NOT IN GOOD AGREEMENT...AND WILL BE REFINED
IN LATER FORECASTS.
&&

.LONG TERM...MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY

THE PATTERN WILL BE ACTIVE IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD. A STORM SYSTEM
WILL TRACK FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS TO THE GREAT LAKES
MONDAY/TUESDAY. AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM...RAIN CHANCES WILL INCREASE
ON MONDAY AND IT WILL BEGIN WARMING UP. IT WILL BE MILD ON TUESDAY
AS THE SYSTEM DRAGS A COLD FRONT INTO THE REGION. THUNDERSTORMS WILL
BE POSSIBLE AS THE FRONT GOES THROUGH.

THE FRONT MAY STALL FOR A TIME TUESDAY NIGHT/WEDNESDAY
MORNING...WITH SHOWERS/A FEW THUNDERSTORMS REMAINING POSSIBLE MAINLY
OVER THE SOUTHEAST HALF OF ARKANSAS.

A SECONDARY FRONT WILL SURGE ACROSS THE AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT...AND
THE BRIEF PERIOD OF SPRING WILL COME TO A CLOSE. WINTER WILL COME
BACK...WITH TEMPERATURES ON THE WAY DOWN. THERE MAY BE A LITTLE
LIGHT SNOW WITH THE FRONT...BUT IT DOES NOT LOOK LIKE ANYTHING
MAJOR.

THE PERIOD WILL END WITH CLOUDS DECREASING ON THURSDAY AND BELOW
NORMAL TEMPERATURES.
&&

.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...58 / LONG TERM...46





000
FXUS64 KLZK 262129
AFDLZK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
329 PM CST THU FEB 26 2015

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT

FLURRIES HAVE BEEN MOVING THROUGH THE STATE TODAY...BUT TEMPERATURES
HAVE CLIMBED ABOVE FREEZING ACROSS THE SOUTH...EVEN WITH THE
SNOW PACK. HIGH PRESSURE MOVING IN TONIGHT WILL BRING COLD
TEMPERATURES...WITH LOWS IN THE NORTH IN THE SINGLE DIGITS. WINDS
WILL STAY ELEVATED THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING...BEFORE CALMING
SOMEWHAT. WIND CHILL READINGS WILL FALL BELOW ZERO OVERNIGHT ACROSS
THE NORTH...BUT WITH WINDS REMAINING BELOW 10 MPH...AN ADVISORY IS
NOT NEEDED.

THE COLD TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE REGION ON FRIDAY...WITH
MOST AREAS REMAINING BELOW FREEZING. GUIDANCE HAS SHOWN FOR THE LAST
FEW RUNS SOME LIGHT SNOW POSSIBLE ACROSS THE WEST FRIDAY AFTERNOON
AND EVENING...BUT NOT EXPECTING MUCH MORE THAN FLURRIES/VERY LIGHT
SNOW DUE TO LIMITED MOISTURE.

ANOTHER SYSTEM WILL APPROACH THE REGION SATURDAY...AS THE RETURN
FLOW BRINGS SOME WARMER TEMPERATURES TO THE REGION. HOWEVER...THIS
WILL ALSO BRING MOISTURE BACK FROM THE GULF. THERE IS STILL QUESTION
ABOUT MOISTURE AMOUNTS AND TEMPERATURES...AND HAVE KEPT CONSERVATIVE
FORECAST GOING IN REGARDS TO FREEZING PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE NORTH
SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY MORNING.

TEMPERATURES WILL WARM SUNDAY...WITH HIGHS CLIMBING INTO THE 40S.
HAVE ADDED ISOLATED THUNDER TO THE SOUTH...AS FRONT WILL BE STALLED
ACROSS THE SOUTH. THERE IS LOW CONFIDENCE IN POP FORECAST FOR
SUNDAY...AS GUIDANCE IS NOT IN GOOD AGREEMENT...AND WILL BE REFINED
IN LATER FORECASTS.
&&

.LONG TERM...MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY

THE PATTERN WILL BE ACTIVE IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD. A STORM SYSTEM
WILL TRACK FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS TO THE GREAT LAKES
MONDAY/TUESDAY. AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM...RAIN CHANCES WILL INCREASE
ON MONDAY AND IT WILL BEGIN WARMING UP. IT WILL BE MILD ON TUESDAY
AS THE SYSTEM DRAGS A COLD FRONT INTO THE REGION. THUNDERSTORMS WILL
BE POSSIBLE AS THE FRONT GOES THROUGH.

THE FRONT MAY STALL FOR A TIME TUESDAY NIGHT/WEDNESDAY
MORNING...WITH SHOWERS/A FEW THUNDERSTORMS REMAINING POSSIBLE MAINLY
OVER THE SOUTHEAST HALF OF ARKANSAS.

A SECONDARY FRONT WILL SURGE ACROSS THE AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT...AND
THE BRIEF PERIOD OF SPRING WILL COME TO A CLOSE. WINTER WILL COME
BACK...WITH TEMPERATURES ON THE WAY DOWN. THERE MAY BE A LITTLE
LIGHT SNOW WITH THE FRONT...BUT IT DOES NOT LOOK LIKE ANYTHING
MAJOR.

THE PERIOD WILL END WITH CLOUDS DECREASING ON THURSDAY AND BELOW
NORMAL TEMPERATURES.
&&

.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...58 / LONG TERM...46





000
FXUS64 KLZK 262129
AFDLZK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
329 PM CST THU FEB 26 2015

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT

FLURRIES HAVE BEEN MOVING THROUGH THE STATE TODAY...BUT TEMPERATURES
HAVE CLIMBED ABOVE FREEZING ACROSS THE SOUTH...EVEN WITH THE
SNOW PACK. HIGH PRESSURE MOVING IN TONIGHT WILL BRING COLD
TEMPERATURES...WITH LOWS IN THE NORTH IN THE SINGLE DIGITS. WINDS
WILL STAY ELEVATED THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING...BEFORE CALMING
SOMEWHAT. WIND CHILL READINGS WILL FALL BELOW ZERO OVERNIGHT ACROSS
THE NORTH...BUT WITH WINDS REMAINING BELOW 10 MPH...AN ADVISORY IS
NOT NEEDED.

THE COLD TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE REGION ON FRIDAY...WITH
MOST AREAS REMAINING BELOW FREEZING. GUIDANCE HAS SHOWN FOR THE LAST
FEW RUNS SOME LIGHT SNOW POSSIBLE ACROSS THE WEST FRIDAY AFTERNOON
AND EVENING...BUT NOT EXPECTING MUCH MORE THAN FLURRIES/VERY LIGHT
SNOW DUE TO LIMITED MOISTURE.

ANOTHER SYSTEM WILL APPROACH THE REGION SATURDAY...AS THE RETURN
FLOW BRINGS SOME WARMER TEMPERATURES TO THE REGION. HOWEVER...THIS
WILL ALSO BRING MOISTURE BACK FROM THE GULF. THERE IS STILL QUESTION
ABOUT MOISTURE AMOUNTS AND TEMPERATURES...AND HAVE KEPT CONSERVATIVE
FORECAST GOING IN REGARDS TO FREEZING PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE NORTH
SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY MORNING.

TEMPERATURES WILL WARM SUNDAY...WITH HIGHS CLIMBING INTO THE 40S.
HAVE ADDED ISOLATED THUNDER TO THE SOUTH...AS FRONT WILL BE STALLED
ACROSS THE SOUTH. THERE IS LOW CONFIDENCE IN POP FORECAST FOR
SUNDAY...AS GUIDANCE IS NOT IN GOOD AGREEMENT...AND WILL BE REFINED
IN LATER FORECASTS.
&&

.LONG TERM...MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY

THE PATTERN WILL BE ACTIVE IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD. A STORM SYSTEM
WILL TRACK FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS TO THE GREAT LAKES
MONDAY/TUESDAY. AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM...RAIN CHANCES WILL INCREASE
ON MONDAY AND IT WILL BEGIN WARMING UP. IT WILL BE MILD ON TUESDAY
AS THE SYSTEM DRAGS A COLD FRONT INTO THE REGION. THUNDERSTORMS WILL
BE POSSIBLE AS THE FRONT GOES THROUGH.

THE FRONT MAY STALL FOR A TIME TUESDAY NIGHT/WEDNESDAY
MORNING...WITH SHOWERS/A FEW THUNDERSTORMS REMAINING POSSIBLE MAINLY
OVER THE SOUTHEAST HALF OF ARKANSAS.

A SECONDARY FRONT WILL SURGE ACROSS THE AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT...AND
THE BRIEF PERIOD OF SPRING WILL COME TO A CLOSE. WINTER WILL COME
BACK...WITH TEMPERATURES ON THE WAY DOWN. THERE MAY BE A LITTLE
LIGHT SNOW WITH THE FRONT...BUT IT DOES NOT LOOK LIKE ANYTHING
MAJOR.

THE PERIOD WILL END WITH CLOUDS DECREASING ON THURSDAY AND BELOW
NORMAL TEMPERATURES.
&&

.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...58 / LONG TERM...46





000
FXUS64 KLZK 262129
AFDLZK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
329 PM CST THU FEB 26 2015

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT

FLURRIES HAVE BEEN MOVING THROUGH THE STATE TODAY...BUT TEMPERATURES
HAVE CLIMBED ABOVE FREEZING ACROSS THE SOUTH...EVEN WITH THE
SNOW PACK. HIGH PRESSURE MOVING IN TONIGHT WILL BRING COLD
TEMPERATURES...WITH LOWS IN THE NORTH IN THE SINGLE DIGITS. WINDS
WILL STAY ELEVATED THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING...BEFORE CALMING
SOMEWHAT. WIND CHILL READINGS WILL FALL BELOW ZERO OVERNIGHT ACROSS
THE NORTH...BUT WITH WINDS REMAINING BELOW 10 MPH...AN ADVISORY IS
NOT NEEDED.

THE COLD TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE REGION ON FRIDAY...WITH
MOST AREAS REMAINING BELOW FREEZING. GUIDANCE HAS SHOWN FOR THE LAST
FEW RUNS SOME LIGHT SNOW POSSIBLE ACROSS THE WEST FRIDAY AFTERNOON
AND EVENING...BUT NOT EXPECTING MUCH MORE THAN FLURRIES/VERY LIGHT
SNOW DUE TO LIMITED MOISTURE.

ANOTHER SYSTEM WILL APPROACH THE REGION SATURDAY...AS THE RETURN
FLOW BRINGS SOME WARMER TEMPERATURES TO THE REGION. HOWEVER...THIS
WILL ALSO BRING MOISTURE BACK FROM THE GULF. THERE IS STILL QUESTION
ABOUT MOISTURE AMOUNTS AND TEMPERATURES...AND HAVE KEPT CONSERVATIVE
FORECAST GOING IN REGARDS TO FREEZING PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE NORTH
SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY MORNING.

TEMPERATURES WILL WARM SUNDAY...WITH HIGHS CLIMBING INTO THE 40S.
HAVE ADDED ISOLATED THUNDER TO THE SOUTH...AS FRONT WILL BE STALLED
ACROSS THE SOUTH. THERE IS LOW CONFIDENCE IN POP FORECAST FOR
SUNDAY...AS GUIDANCE IS NOT IN GOOD AGREEMENT...AND WILL BE REFINED
IN LATER FORECASTS.
&&

.LONG TERM...MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY

THE PATTERN WILL BE ACTIVE IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD. A STORM SYSTEM
WILL TRACK FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS TO THE GREAT LAKES
MONDAY/TUESDAY. AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM...RAIN CHANCES WILL INCREASE
ON MONDAY AND IT WILL BEGIN WARMING UP. IT WILL BE MILD ON TUESDAY
AS THE SYSTEM DRAGS A COLD FRONT INTO THE REGION. THUNDERSTORMS WILL
BE POSSIBLE AS THE FRONT GOES THROUGH.

THE FRONT MAY STALL FOR A TIME TUESDAY NIGHT/WEDNESDAY
MORNING...WITH SHOWERS/A FEW THUNDERSTORMS REMAINING POSSIBLE MAINLY
OVER THE SOUTHEAST HALF OF ARKANSAS.

A SECONDARY FRONT WILL SURGE ACROSS THE AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT...AND
THE BRIEF PERIOD OF SPRING WILL COME TO A CLOSE. WINTER WILL COME
BACK...WITH TEMPERATURES ON THE WAY DOWN. THERE MAY BE A LITTLE
LIGHT SNOW WITH THE FRONT...BUT IT DOES NOT LOOK LIKE ANYTHING
MAJOR.

THE PERIOD WILL END WITH CLOUDS DECREASING ON THURSDAY AND BELOW
NORMAL TEMPERATURES.
&&

.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...58 / LONG TERM...46





000
FXUS64 KLZK 262129
AFDLZK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
329 PM CST THU FEB 26 2015

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT

FLURRIES HAVE BEEN MOVING THROUGH THE STATE TODAY...BUT TEMPERATURES
HAVE CLIMBED ABOVE FREEZING ACROSS THE SOUTH...EVEN WITH THE
SNOW PACK. HIGH PRESSURE MOVING IN TONIGHT WILL BRING COLD
TEMPERATURES...WITH LOWS IN THE NORTH IN THE SINGLE DIGITS. WINDS
WILL STAY ELEVATED THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING...BEFORE CALMING
SOMEWHAT. WIND CHILL READINGS WILL FALL BELOW ZERO OVERNIGHT ACROSS
THE NORTH...BUT WITH WINDS REMAINING BELOW 10 MPH...AN ADVISORY IS
NOT NEEDED.

THE COLD TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE REGION ON FRIDAY...WITH
MOST AREAS REMAINING BELOW FREEZING. GUIDANCE HAS SHOWN FOR THE LAST
FEW RUNS SOME LIGHT SNOW POSSIBLE ACROSS THE WEST FRIDAY AFTERNOON
AND EVENING...BUT NOT EXPECTING MUCH MORE THAN FLURRIES/VERY LIGHT
SNOW DUE TO LIMITED MOISTURE.

ANOTHER SYSTEM WILL APPROACH THE REGION SATURDAY...AS THE RETURN
FLOW BRINGS SOME WARMER TEMPERATURES TO THE REGION. HOWEVER...THIS
WILL ALSO BRING MOISTURE BACK FROM THE GULF. THERE IS STILL QUESTION
ABOUT MOISTURE AMOUNTS AND TEMPERATURES...AND HAVE KEPT CONSERVATIVE
FORECAST GOING IN REGARDS TO FREEZING PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE NORTH
SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY MORNING.

TEMPERATURES WILL WARM SUNDAY...WITH HIGHS CLIMBING INTO THE 40S.
HAVE ADDED ISOLATED THUNDER TO THE SOUTH...AS FRONT WILL BE STALLED
ACROSS THE SOUTH. THERE IS LOW CONFIDENCE IN POP FORECAST FOR
SUNDAY...AS GUIDANCE IS NOT IN GOOD AGREEMENT...AND WILL BE REFINED
IN LATER FORECASTS.
&&

.LONG TERM...MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY

THE PATTERN WILL BE ACTIVE IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD. A STORM SYSTEM
WILL TRACK FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS TO THE GREAT LAKES
MONDAY/TUESDAY. AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM...RAIN CHANCES WILL INCREASE
ON MONDAY AND IT WILL BEGIN WARMING UP. IT WILL BE MILD ON TUESDAY
AS THE SYSTEM DRAGS A COLD FRONT INTO THE REGION. THUNDERSTORMS WILL
BE POSSIBLE AS THE FRONT GOES THROUGH.

THE FRONT MAY STALL FOR A TIME TUESDAY NIGHT/WEDNESDAY
MORNING...WITH SHOWERS/A FEW THUNDERSTORMS REMAINING POSSIBLE MAINLY
OVER THE SOUTHEAST HALF OF ARKANSAS.

A SECONDARY FRONT WILL SURGE ACROSS THE AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT...AND
THE BRIEF PERIOD OF SPRING WILL COME TO A CLOSE. WINTER WILL COME
BACK...WITH TEMPERATURES ON THE WAY DOWN. THERE MAY BE A LITTLE
LIGHT SNOW WITH THE FRONT...BUT IT DOES NOT LOOK LIKE ANYTHING
MAJOR.

THE PERIOD WILL END WITH CLOUDS DECREASING ON THURSDAY AND BELOW
NORMAL TEMPERATURES.
&&

.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...58 / LONG TERM...46




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