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000
FXUS64 KLZK 250801
AFDLZK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
301 AM CDT SAT MAY 25 2013
.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT
UPPER LEVEL RIDGING CURRENTLY RESIDES OVER THE CENTRAL
CONUS...WITH THE RIDGE AXIS SITUATED FROM EASTERN TEXAS UP TO
EASTERN NEBRASKA...AND UPPER TROUGHS OVER NEW ENGLAND AND THE
PACIFIC NORTHWEST. TRAPPED BENEATH THE UPPER RIDGE IS A WEAK UPPER
DISTURBANCE OVER CENTRAL TEXAS...WHICH IS CAUSING SOME ONGOING
CONVECTION ACROSS TEXAS THIS MORNING.
THIS ENTIRE LONGWAVE PATTERN WILL SLOWLY SHIFT EAST OVER THE NEXT
DAY OR TWO BEFORE THE RIDGE FLATTENS OUT A BIT AND UPPER LEVEL
FLOW BECOMES SLIGHTLY MORE ZONAL ACROSS THE CONUS BY MONDAY
AFTERNOON. EXPECT MUCH OF THE SHORT TERM TO BE DRY...THOUGH SOME
RAIN CHANCES WILL EXIST MAINLY IN WESTERN THIS AFTERNOON AND THEN
IN WESTERN AND NORTHERN ARKANSAS ON SUNDAY. THE PROBLEM IN
CONVEYING THIS THROUGH THE FORECAST IS HOW HIGH OF RAIN CHANCES TO
PUT IN. FEEL PRETTY CONFIDENT THAT SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL
EXIST...BUT THEY ARE LIKELY TO BE ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED SO
MOST LOCALES...EVEN IN THE FAVORED AREAS...MAY NOT SEE ANY RAIN AT
ALL. AS SUCH...JUST LEFT SLIGHT CHANCE POPS IN FOR WESTERN
ARKANSAS THIS AFTERNOON AND THEN ACROSS MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA
ON SUNDAY. RAIN CHANCES WILL BE HIGHEST ON SUNDAY...THANKS TO
INCREASING INFLUENCE FROM THE AFOREMENTIONED DISTURBANCE TRAPPED
BENEATH THE RIDGE AND ALSO ANOTHER WAVE TOPPING THE RIDGE AND
DROPPING SOUTHEAST ACROSS SOUTHERN MISSOURI.
DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY.
WILL SEE A GRADUAL WARMING TREND MOVING THROUGH THE SHORT TERM.
HIGHS TODAY WILL BE IN THE MID 70S TO LOW 80S. BY TUESDAY
THOUGH...HIGHS SHOULD BE IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S STATEWIDE.
&&
.LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY
MODELS ARE IN GOOD OVERALL AGREEMENT...WITH THE UPPER RIDGE OVER THE
EASTERN U.S. WHICH WILL GRADUALLY MOVE EAST AS A DEEPENING UPPER
TROUGH AND CUT OFF LOW OVER THE ROCKY MOUNTAINS WILL MOVE EAST. DRY
AND WARM WEATHER IS EXPECTED FOR WEDNESDAY AS INCREASING SOUTH WIND
FLOW RAISES MOISTURE LEVELS. THEN THE CHANCE OF RAIN ENTERS THE
FORECAST FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...MAINLY IN THE WEST ON
THURSDAY...THEN OVER MUCH OF AR ON FRIDAY. THE UPPER AND SURFACE
SYSTEMS MOVE CLOSER TO AR...AND CHANCES OF CONVECTION GRADUALLY
INCREASE. ALTHOUGH THE MAIN CORE OF LIFT WITH THE UPPER TROUGH DOES
STAY WEST OF AR THURSDAY...THEN SHEERS OUT OVER AR ON FRIDAY.
THEREFORE AT THIS TIME ONLY A SLIGHT TO LOW CHANCE OF CONVECTION IS
IN THE FORECAST. TEMPS WILL BE AT OR A BIT ABOVE NORMAL VALUES.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BATESVILLE AR 79 60 84 65 / 10 20 20 20
CAMDEN AR 83 64 85 66 / 20 20 20 10
HARRISON AR 79 61 82 64 / 20 20 20 20
HOT SPRINGS AR 81 64 84 66 / 10 20 20 10
LITTLE ROCK AR 80 63 85 66 / 10 20 20 20
MONTICELLO AR 81 63 85 66 / 10 20 20 10
MOUNT IDA AR 81 64 82 65 / 20 20 20 10
MOUNTAIN HOME AR 80 60 83 64 / 10 20 20 20
NEWPORT AR 78 60 85 66 / 10 20 20 20
PINE BLUFF AR 81 63 85 66 / 10 20 20 10
RUSSELLVILLE AR 82 62 85 65 / 10 20 20 20
SEARCY AR 79 60 85 65 / 10 20 20 20
STUTTGART AR 79 63 85 66 / 10 20 20 20
&&
.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...64 / LONG TERM...59
000
FXUS64 KLZK 250544 AAA
AFDLZK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATE FOR AVIATION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
1245 AM CDT SAT MAY 25 2013
.AVIATION...
OVERALL VFR WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS WILL FILTER IN OVER AR. WINDS WILL BE E TO SE 5 TO
10 KNOTS OVERNIGHT. ON SATURDAY...WINDS WILL BECOME SE TO S 5 TO 15
KNOTS. ON SATURDAY ISOLATED CONVECTION MAY BE SEEN OVER PARTS OF
WESTERN AR BUT HAVE KEPT OUT OF TAFS DUE TO UNCERTAINTY. (59)
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 241 PM CDT FRI MAY 24 2013/
SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT
FOR A LATE MAY DAY IN ARKANSAS...YOU JUST CAN/T BEAT TODAY. LITTLE
IN THE WAY OF CLOUD COVER...AND MAINLY NORTHEAST/EASTERLY FLOW HAS
KEPT TEMPERATURES IN THE 70S IN MUCH OF THE STATE.
TONIGHT WILL BE COOL...WITH LOWS IN THE 50S IN MUCH OF THE AREA.
SLOW WARMING WILL COMMENCE IN THE COMING DAYS...AS SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE SHIFTS TO THE EAST...AND THE REMNANTS OF A FRONTAL
BOUNDARY TO THE SOUTH OF THE REGION RETURN NORTH. AT THE SAME TIME...
SEVERAL WEAK WAVES WILL MOVE THROUGH IN THE MEAN FLOW ON SATURDAY
AND SUNDAY...BRINGING MAINLY SMALL CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS.
BY MONDAY...DRY CONDITIONS WILL RETURN AS UPPER RIDGING SETS UP
OVER THE REGION. SURFACE WINDS WILL BE ELEVATED...DUE TO THE
GRADIENT BETWEEN THE SURFACE HIGH CENTERED OVER THE SOUTHEAST
CONUS AND DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE IN THE PLAINS. HIGHS WILL BE
WELL INTO THE 80S AREA WIDE.
LONG TERM...TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY
AN UPPER RIDGE WILL BE PUSHING EAST OF ARKANSAS ON TUESDAY AS AN
UPPER TROUGH DIVES ALONG THE WEST COAST. IN BETWEEN
SYSTEMS...SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL BE OVER ARKANSAS WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY. AN UPPER LOW DEVELOPS OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS THURSDAY
AND SLIDES INTO CANADA FRIDAY.
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE OVER THE AREA THROUGH MUCH OF THE
PERIOD. TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY WILL BE DRY BUT CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL INCREASE THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY AS A COLD FRONT
SLOWLY MOVES TOWARD THE STATE FROM THE WEST...AND MOISTURE AND
INSTABILITY INCREASES. NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES
ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE LONG TERM PERIOD.
&&
.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&
$$
000
FXUS64 KLZK 242350
AFDLZK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
650 PM CDT FRI MAY 24 2013
.AVIATION...25/00Z TAF CYCLE
VFR CONDS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THRU THE PD. MAINLY HIGH CLOUDS
WL STREAM EWD ACRS THE AREA TNGT FM ONGOING CONVECTION ACRS ERN
TX. SCTD CU WL DVLP SAT AFTN ACRS PARTS OF WRN AR AS LOW LVL
MOISTURE RETURN COMMENCES. LGT E/SELY WINDS TNGT WL VEER TO MAINLY
SELY AT 5 TO 10 KTS SAT AFTN. /44/
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 241 PM CDT FRI MAY 24 2013/
SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT
FOR A LATE MAY DAY IN ARKANSAS...YOU JUST CAN/T BEAT TODAY. LITTLE
IN THE WAY OF CLOUD COVER...AND MAINLY NORTHEAST/EASTERLY FLOW HAS
KEPT TEMPERATURES IN THE 70S IN MUCH OF THE STATE.
TONIGHT WILL BE COOL...WITH LOWS IN THE 50S IN MUCH OF THE AREA.
SLOW WARMING WILL COMMENCE IN THE COMING DAYS...AS SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE SHIFTS TO THE EAST...AND THE REMNANTS OF A FRONTAL
BOUNDARY TO THE SOUTH OF THE REGION RETURN NORTH. AT THE SAME TIME...
SEVERAL WEAK WAVES WILL MOVE THROUGH IN THE MEAN FLOW ON SATURDAY
AND SUNDAY...BRINGING MAINLY SMALL CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS.
BY MONDAY...DRY CONDITIONS WILL RETURN AS UPPER RIDGING SETS UP
OVER THE REGION. SURFACE WINDS WILL BE ELEVATED...DUE TO THE
GRADIENT BETWEEN THE SURFACE HIGH CENTERED OVER THE SOUTHEAST
CONUS AND DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE IN THE PLAINS. HIGHS WILL BE
WELL INTO THE 80S AREAWIDE.
LONG TERM...TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY
AN UPPER RIDGE WILL BE PUSHING EAST OF ARKANSAS ON TUESDAY AS AN
UPPER TROUGH DIVES ALONG THE WEST COAST. IN BETWEEN
SYSTEMS...SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL BE OVER ARKANSAS WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY. AN UPPER LOW DEVELOPS OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS THURSDAY
AND SLIDES INTO CANADA FRIDAY.
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE OVER THE AREA THROUGH MUCH OF THE
PERIOD. TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY WILL BE DRY BUT CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL INCREASE THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY AS A COLD FRONT
SLOWLY MOVES TOWARD THE STATE FROM THE WEST...AND MOISTURE AND
INSTABILITY INCREASES. NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE
EXPECTED THROUGH THE LONG TERM PERIOD.
&&
.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&
$$
000
FXUS64 KLZK 241941
AFDLZK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
241 PM CDT FRI MAY 24 2013
.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT
FOR A LATE MAY DAY IN ARKANSAS...YOU JUST CAN/T BEAT TODAY. LITTLE
IN THE WAY OF CLOUD COVER...AND MAINLY NORTHEAST/EASTERLY FLOW HAS
KEPT TEMPERATURES IN THE 70S IN MUCH OF THE STATE.
TONIGHT WILL BE COOL...WITH LOWS IN THE 50S IN MUCH OF THE AREA.
SLOW WARMING WILL COMMENCE IN THE COMING DAYS...AS SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE SHIFTS TO THE EAST...AND THE REMNANTS OF A FRONTAL
BOUNDARY TO THE SOUTH OF THE REGION RETURN NORTH. AT THE SAME TIME...
SEVERAL WEAK WAVES WILL MOVE THROUGH IN THE MEAN FLOW ON SATURDAY
AND SUNDAY...BRINGING MAINLY SMALL CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS.
BY MONDAY...DRY CONDITIONS WILL RETURN AS UPPER RIDGING SETS UP
OVER THE REGION. SURFACE WINDS WILL BE ELEVATED...DUE TO THE
GRADIENT BETWEEN THE SURFACE HIGH CENTERED OVER THE SOUTHEAST
CONUS AND DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE IN THE PLAINS. HIGHS WILL BE
WELL INTO THE 80S AREAWIDE.
&&
.LONG TERM...TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY
AN UPPER RIDGE WILL BE PUSHING EAST OF ARKANSAS ON TUESDAY AS AN
UPPER TROUGH DIVES ALONG THE WEST COAST. IN BETWEEN
SYSTEMS...SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL BE OVER ARKANSAS WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY. AN UPPER LOW DEVELOPS OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS THURSDAY
AND SLIDES INTO CANADA FRIDAY.
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE OVER THE AREA THROUGH MUCH OF THE
PERIOD. TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY WILL BE DRY BUT CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL INCREASE THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY AS A COLD FRONT
SLOWLY MOVES TOWARD THE STATE FROM THE WEST...AND MOISTURE AND
INSTABILITY INCREASES. NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE
EXPECTED THROUGH THE LONG TERM PERIOD.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BATESVILLE AR 50 78 59 82 / 0 10 10 30
CAMDEN AR 57 84 63 85 / 10 10 20 20
HARRISON AR 51 79 60 81 / 0 20 20 40
HOT SPRINGS AR 56 83 63 84 / 0 10 20 20
LITTLE ROCK AR 53 81 62 84 / 0 10 10 20
MONTICELLO AR 55 83 62 85 / 0 10 10 20
MOUNT IDA AR 55 81 62 82 / 10 20 20 20
MOUNTAIN HOME AR 50 79 60 82 / 0 10 20 40
NEWPORT AR 51 78 60 83 / 0 10 10 30
PINE BLUFF AR 54 81 62 84 / 0 10 10 20
RUSSELLVILLE AR 54 81 62 83 / 0 20 20 30
SEARCY AR 51 79 58 83 / 0 10 10 20
STUTTGART AR 53 80 63 84 / 0 10 10 20
&&
.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...57 / LONG TERM...51
000
FXUS64 KLZK 241735
AFDLZK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
1235 PM CDT FRI MAY 24 2013
.AVIATION...
HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES OVER THE AREA. WINDS ARE FROM THE
NORTHEAST AND EAST WITH VERY FEW CLOUDS OVER THE AREA. WINDS WILL
BE GUSTY AT TIMES THIS AFTERNOON THEN DECREASE AFTER SUNSET.
CIRRUS WILL INCREASE OVER THE AREA LATE TONIGHT AND SATURDAY
MORNING. VFR CONDITIOINS WILL PREVAIL.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 637 AM CDT FRI MAY 24 2013/
DISCUSSION...
UPDATED FOR THE 12Z AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.
AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE PERIOD. WINDS WILL BE
EASTERLY AROUND 10-12 KT AT ALL SITES...WITH SOME GUSTS INTO THE
MID TEENS DURING THE LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON HOURS. WHILE THE
ATMOSPHERE IS CAPPED...THERE SHOULD BE ENOUGH SOLAR HEATING TO
DEVELOP SOME SPARSE AFTERNOON CU TODAY SO HAVE FEW040 MENTIONED AT
ALL SITES. SOME BKN040 CIGS MAY EXIST FROM JUST WEST OF
KLLQ...NORTHWEST THROUGH KHOT AND TOWARDS KFSM THIS AFTERNOON.
THIS WOULD BE IN A REGION OF HIGHEST MOISTURE CONVERGENCE JUST
NORTHEAST OF A STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY ACROSS NE TEXAS AND NRN
LOUISIANA. SOME CONVECTION WILL FIRE ALONG THAT BOUNDARY TODAY BUT
EXPECT ONLY CIRRUS BLOW OFF FROM IT ACROSS ARKANSAS.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 309 AM CDT FRI MAY 24 2013/
SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH MONDAY
DRY CONDITIONS SEEN ACROSS THE STATE THIS MORNING AS WINDS FROM THE
NE USHER IN DRY AIR BEHIND A COLD FRONT. SKIES WERE PARTLY TO MOSTLY
CLOUDY AS HIGH CLOUDS FROM THE WEST MOVED OVER AR. EXPECT DRY
CONDITIONS TO PERSIST THROUGH THIS FRI AS DRIER AND COOLER AIR MOVES
INTO THE STATE. SOME LOCATIONS ACROSS THE FAR WEST AND SW COULD SEE
SOME ISOLATED CONVECTION...BUT KEEP BELOW MENTION POPS FOR NOW AS
POTENTIAL SEEMS TOO LOW AT THIS TIME. TEMPS WILL BE BELOW NORMAL FOR
HIGHS...WITH TEMPS MAINLY IN THE UPPER 60S TO UPPER 70S.
AFTER A COOL MORNING ON SAT...WITH MORNING LOWS IN THE UPPER 40S TO
UPPER 50S...MOISTURE LEVELS WILL BEGIN RETURNING ACROSS THE WEST AS
SFC HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS EAST...AND UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS BEGINS
SHIFTING EAST AS WELL. MOST LOCATIONS SHOULD REMAIN DRY HOWEVER...BUT
DO MENTION POPS ACROSS THE FAR WEST AND NW AS THERE WILL BE HIGHER
MOISTURE LEVELS IN THAT PORTION OF AR. BETTER POPS WILL BE SEEN ON
SAT NIGHT AND ESPECIALLY ON SUN AS A WEAK UPPER DISTURBANCE ROTATES
AROUND THE TOP OF THE RIDGE IN PLACE...MAINLY OVER NWRN AR. BEST
POPS WILL BE ACROSS THE NWRN AND NRN COUNTIES FOR SUN.
UPPER RIDGE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH THE END OF THE
FORECAST...WITH MOST LOCATIONS REMAINING DRY FOR MON.
HOWEVER...COULD SEEN SOME DIURNALLY DRIVEN CONVECTION DURING THE
HEATING OF THE AFTERNOON HRS. WILL KEEP POPS BELOW MENTION AT THIS
TIME HOWEVER.
LONG TERM...TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY
NO NOTABLE CHANGES MADE TO THE LONG TERM FORECAST TONIGHT. MODELS
ARE GENERALLY IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH THE PERIOD...SHOWING A RIDGE
UP UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE SITUATED OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN
CONUS..AND AN UPPER TROUGH OR CLOSED LOW DIGGING OUT A HOME ACROSS
THE DESERT SOUTHWEST. AS SUCH...THE FORECAST AREA SHOULD BE MOSTLY
DRY. HOWEVER WITH PERSISTENT AND SOMEWHAT DEEP SOUTHERLY FLOW AN
ISOLATED AFTERNOON SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM WILL CERTAINLY BE POSSIBLE
EACH DAY. DID NOT PUT MENTION OF PRECIP IN THE FORECAST THOUGH AS
ANY CONVECTION SHOULD BE ISOLATED ENOUGH IN NATURE NOT TO WARRANT
BROAD-BRUSHED SLIGHT CHANCE POPS.
OTHERWISE...THE ONLY TWEAKS MADE TO THE FORECAST WOULD BE MINOR
TEMPERATURE ADJUSTMENTS TO ALIGN WITH LATEST GUIDANCE AND ALSO TO
ADJUST CLOUD COVER FORECASTS TO A MORE DIURNALLY FAVORED TREND.
MORNING CLOUDINESS SHOULD BE FAIRLY PREVALENT EACH DAY...ESPECIALLY
IN THE WEST...BUT THIS SHOULD GIVE WAY TO AFTERNOON CUMULUS AND THEN
CLEARING SKIES IN THE EVENING WITH LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BATESVILLE AR 50 78 60 81 / 0 10 20 30
CAMDEN AR 57 84 64 84 / 10 10 10 20
HARRISON AR 51 79 60 80 / 0 20 20 40
HOT SPRINGS AR 56 83 64 83 / 0 10 20 20
LITTLE ROCK AR 53 81 62 83 / 0 10 10 20
MONTICELLO AR 55 83 64 84 / 0 10 10 20
MOUNT IDA AR 55 81 63 81 / 10 20 20 20
MOUNTAIN HOME AR 50 79 59 81 / 0 10 20 40
NEWPORT AR 51 78 60 82 / 0 10 10 30
PINE BLUFF AR 54 81 62 83 / 0 10 10 20
RUSSELLVILLE AR 54 81 62 82 / 0 10 20 30
SEARCY AR 51 79 60 82 / 0 10 10 20
STUTTGART AR 53 80 62 83 / 0 10 10 20
&&
.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&
$$
AVIATION...51
000
FXUS64 KLZK 241137
AFDLZK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
637 AM CDT FRI MAY 24 2013
.DISCUSSION...
UPDATED FOR THE 12Z AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.
&&
.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE PERIOD. WINDS WILL BE
EASTERLY AROUND 10-12 KT AT ALL SITES...WITH SOME GUSTS INTO THE
MID TEENS DURING THE LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON HOURS. WHILE THE
ATMOSPHERE IS CAPPED...THERE SHOULD BE ENOUGH SOLAR HEATING TO
DEVELOP SOME SPARSE AFTERNOON CU TODAY SO HAVE FEW040 MENTIONED AT
ALL SITES. SOME BKN040 CIGS MAY EXIST FROM JUST WEST OF
KLLQ...NORTHWEST THROUGH KHOT AND TOWARDS KFSM THIS AFTERNOON.
THIS WOULD BE IN A REGION OF HIGHEST MOISTURE CONVERGENCE JUST
NORTHEAST OF A STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY ACROSS NE TEXAS AND NRN
LOUISIANA. SOME CONVECTION WILL FIRE ALONG THAT BOUNDARY TODAY BUT
EXPECT ONLY CIRRUS BLOW OFF FROM IT ACROSS ARKANSAS.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 309 AM CDT FRI MAY 24 2013/
SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH MONDAY
DRY CONDITIONS SEEN ACROSS THE STATE THIS MORNING AS WINDS FROM THE
NE USHER IN DRY AIR BEHIND A COLD FRONT. SKIES WERE PARTLY TO MOSTLY
CLOUDY AS HIGH CLOUDS FROM THE WEST MOVED OVER AR. EXPECT DRY
CONDITIONS TO PERSIST THROUGH THIS FRI AS DRIER AND COOLER AIR MOVES
INTO THE STATE. SOME LOCATIONS ACROSS THE FAR WEST AND SW COULD SEE
SOME ISOLATED CONVECTION...BUT KEEP BELOW MENTION POPS FOR NOW AS
POTENTIAL SEEMS TOO LOW AT THIS TIME. TEMPS WILL BE BELOW NORMAL FOR
HIGHS...WITH TEMPS MAINLY IN THE UPPER 60S TO UPPER 70S.
AFTER A COOL MORNING ON SAT...WITH MORNING LOWS IN THE UPPER 40S TO
UPPER 50S...MOISTURE LEVELS WILL BEGIN RETURNING ACROSS THE WEST AS
SFC HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS EAST...AND UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS BEGINS
SHIFTING EAST AS WELL. MOST LOCATIONS SHOULD REMAIN DRY HOWEVER...BUT
DO MENTION POPS ACROSS THE FAR WEST AND NW AS THERE WILL BE HIGHER
MOISTURE LEVELS IN THAT PORTION OF AR. BETTER POPS WILL BE SEEN ON
SAT NIGHT AND ESPECIALLY ON SUN AS A WEAK UPPER DISTURBANCE ROTATES
AROUND THE TOP OF THE RIDGE IN PLACE...MAINLY OVER NWRN AR. BEST
POPS WILL BE ACROSS THE NWRN AND NRN COUNTIES FOR SUN.
UPPER RIDGE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH THE END OF THE
FORECAST...WITH MOST LOCATIONS REMAINING DRY FOR MON.
HOWEVER...COULD SEEN SOME DIURNALLY DRIVEN CONVECTION DURING THE
HEATING OF THE AFTERNOON HRS. WILL KEEP POPS BELOW MENTION AT THIS
TIME HOWEVER.
LONG TERM...TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY
NO NOTABLE CHANGES MADE TO THE LONG TERM FORECAST TONIGHT. MODELS
ARE GENERALLY IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH THE PERIOD...SHOWING A RIDGE
UP UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE SITUATED OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN
CONUS..AND AN UPPER TROUGH OR CLOSED LOW DIGGING OUT A HOME ACROSS
THE DESERT SOUTHWEST. AS SUCH...THE FORECAST AREA SHOULD BE MOSTLY
DRY. HOWEVER WITH PERSISTENT AND SOMEWHAT DEEP SOUTHERLY FLOW AN
ISOLATED AFTERNOON SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM WILL CERTAINLY BE POSSIBLE
EACH DAY. DID NOT PUT MENTION OF PRECIP IN THE FORECAST THOUGH AS
ANY CONVECTION SHOULD BE ISOLATED ENOUGH IN NATURE NOT TO WARRANT
BROAD-BRUSHED SLIGHT CHANCE POPS.
OTHERWISE...THE ONLY TWEAKS MADE TO THE FORECAST WOULD BE MINOR
TEMPERATURE ADJUSTMENTS TO ALIGN WITH LATEST GUIDANCE AND ALSO TO
ADJUST CLOUD COVER FORECASTS TO A MORE DIURNALLY FAVORED TREND.
MORNING CLOUDINESS SHOULD BE FAIRLY PREVALENT EACH DAY...ESPECIALLY
IN THE WEST...BUT THIS SHOULD GIVE WAY TO AFTERNOON CUMULUS AND THEN
CLEARING SKIES IN THE EVENING WITH LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BATESVILLE AR 72 50 78 60 / 0 0 10 20
CAMDEN AR 79 57 84 64 / 10 10 10 10
HARRISON AR 72 51 79 60 / 0 0 20 20
HOT SPRINGS AR 77 56 83 64 / 0 0 10 20
LITTLE ROCK AR 76 53 81 62 / 0 0 10 10
MONTICELLO AR 78 55 83 64 / 0 0 10 10
MOUNT IDA AR 77 55 81 63 / 10 10 20 20
MOUNTAIN HOME AR 73 50 79 59 / 0 0 10 20
NEWPORT AR 73 51 78 60 / 0 0 10 10
PINE BLUFF AR 76 54 81 62 / 0 0 10 10
RUSSELLVILLE AR 76 54 81 62 / 0 0 10 20
SEARCY AR 73 51 79 60 / 0 0 10 10
STUTTGART AR 74 53 80 62 / 0 0 10 10
&&
.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&
$$
AVIATION...64
000
FXUS64 KLZK 240809
AFDLZK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
309 AM CDT FRI MAY 24 2013
.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH MONDAY
DRY CONDITIONS SEEN ACROSS THE STATE THIS MORNING AS WINDS FROM THE
NE USHER IN DRY AIR BEHIND A COLD FRONT. SKIES WERE PARTLY TO MOSTLY
CLOUDY AS HIGH CLOUDS FROM THE WEST MOVED OVER AR. EXPECT DRY
CONDITIONS TO PERSIST THROUGH THIS FRI AS DRIER AND COOLER AIR MOVES
INTO THE STATE. SOME LOCATIONS ACROSS THE FAR WEST AND SW COULD SEE
SOME ISOLATED CONVECTION...BUT KEEP BELOW MENTION POPS FOR NOW AS
POTENTIAL SEEMS TOO LOW AT THIS TIME. TEMPS WILL BE BELOW NORMAL FOR
HIGHS...WITH TEMPS MAINLY IN THE UPPER 60S TO UPPER 70S.
AFTER A COOL MORNING ON SAT...WITH MORNING LOWS IN THE UPPER 40S TO
UPPER 50S...MOISTURE LEVELS WILL BEGIN RETURNING ACROSS THE WEST AS
SFC HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS EAST...AND UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS BEGINS
SHIFTING EAST AS WELL. MOST LOCATIONS SHOULD REMAIN DRY HOWEVER...BUT
DO MENTION POPS ACROSS THE FAR WEST AND NW AS THERE WILL BE HIGHER
MOISTURE LEVELS IN THAT PORTION OF AR. BETTER POPS WILL BE SEEN ON
SAT NIGHT AND ESPECIALLY ON SUN AS A WEAK UPPER DISTURBANCE ROTATES
AROUND THE TOP OF THE RIDGE IN PLACE...MAINLY OVER NWRN AR. BEST
POPS WILL BE ACROSS THE NWRN AND NRN COUNTIES FOR SUN.
UPPER RIDGE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH THE END OF THE
FORECAST...WITH MOST LOCATIONS REMAINING DRY FOR MON.
HOWEVER...COULD SEEN SOME DIURNALLY DRIVEN CONVECTION DURING THE
HEATING OF THE AFTERNOON HRS. WILL KEEP POPS BELOW MENTION AT THIS
TIME HOWEVER.
&&
.LONG TERM...TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY
NO NOTABLE CHANGES MADE TO THE LONG TERM FORECAST TONIGHT. MODELS
ARE GENERALLY IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH THE PERIOD...SHOWING A RIDGE
UP UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE SITUATED OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN
CONUS..AND AN UPPER TROUGH OR CLOSED LOW DIGGING OUT A HOME ACROSS
THE DESERT SOUTHWEST. AS SUCH...THE FORECAST AREA SHOULD BE MOSTLY
DRY. HOWEVER WITH PERSISTENT AND SOMEWHAT DEEP SOUTHERLY FLOW AN
ISOLATED AFTERNOON SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM WILL CERTAINLY BE POSSIBLE
EACH DAY. DID NOT PUT MENTION OF PRECIP IN THE FORECAST THOUGH AS
ANY CONVECTION SHOULD BE ISOLATED ENOUGH IN NATURE NOT TO WARRANT
BROAD-BRUSHED SLIGHT CHANCE POPS.
OTHERWISE...THE ONLY TWEAKS MADE TO THE FORECAST WOULD BE MINOR
TEMPERATURE ADJUSTMENTS TO ALIGN WITH LATEST GUIDANCE AND ALSO TO
ADJUST CLOUD COVER FORECASTS TO A MORE DIURNALLY FAVORED TREND.
MORNING CLOUDINESS SHOULD BE FAIRLY PREVALENT EACH DAY...ESPECIALLY
IN THE WEST...BUT THIS SHOULD GIVE WAY TO AFTERNOON CUMULUS AND THEN
CLEARING SKIES IN THE EVENING WITH LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BATESVILLE AR 72 50 78 60 / 0 0 10 20
CAMDEN AR 79 57 84 64 / 10 10 10 10
HARRISON AR 72 51 79 60 / 0 0 20 20
HOT SPRINGS AR 77 56 83 64 / 0 0 10 20
LITTLE ROCK AR 76 53 81 62 / 0 0 10 10
MONTICELLO AR 78 55 83 64 / 0 0 10 10
MOUNT IDA AR 77 55 81 63 / 10 10 20 20
MOUNTAIN HOME AR 73 50 79 59 / 0 0 10 20
NEWPORT AR 73 51 78 60 / 0 0 10 10
PINE BLUFF AR 76 54 81 62 / 0 0 10 10
RUSSELLVILLE AR 76 54 81 62 / 0 0 10 20
SEARCY AR 73 51 79 60 / 0 0 10 10
STUTTGART AR 74 53 80 62 / 0 0 10 10
&&
.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...62 / LONG TERM...64
000
FXUS64 KLZK 240325
AFDLZK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
1025 PM CDT THU MAY 23 2013
.UPDATE...
MADE A FEW ADJUSTMENTS TO THE FORECAST OVERNIGHT BASED
ON LATEST TRENDS IN TEMPS...CLOUDS...AND WINDS. NO MAJOR CHANGES
BUT I LOWERED WIND SPEEDS JUST A BIT OVERNIGHT AND RAISED
DEWPOINTS AND TEMPERATURES JUST A DEGREE OR TWO ACROSS THE
NORTHERN HALF OF THE STATE. LOOKS AS IF THE COOLER AND DRIER AIR
IS A BIT SLOWER FILTERING IN THAN EXPECTED AND A BIT MORE CLOUD
COVER HAS KEPT TEMPS JUST A BIT HIGHER TONIGHT THAN EXPECTED. 53
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 624 PM CDT THU MAY 23 2013/
AVIATION...
VFR THROUGH0UT THIS FORECAST PERIOD. SCT MID CLOUDS AT TIMES WITH
BKN HIGH CLOUDS ABOVE. LOOKS LIKE WE WILL HAVE SOME BREEZY WINDS
BEGINNING SOON AFTER SUNRISE IN CENTRAL AND S AR...SO BUMPED UP
THE WIND FORECAST THEN.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 239 PM CDT THU MAY 23 2013/
SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT
AT THE SURFACE...A STATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS SET UP JUST TO
THE SOUTH OF THE REGION. UPPER WAVE HAS TOUCHED OFF SHOWERS/STORMS
IN OKLAHOMA...WHICH HAVE WANED IN THE LAST FEW HOURS. THE CIRRUS
SHIELD FROM THE STORMS HAS KEPT TEMPERATURES MOSTLY IN THE 70S IN
THE NORTHWEST HALF OF THE STATE...WHILE READINGS ELSEWHERE HAVE
BEEN IN THE LOWER TO MID 80S.
THERE WILL BE SMALL CHANCES FOR SHOWERS/STORMS THIS EVENING IN THE
FAR SOUTHWEST...CLOSE TO THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND ANY INTERACTION
WITH THE REMNANTS FROM THE MORNING SYSTEM. OTHERWISE...COOLER AND
DRIER AIR WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH INTO THE REGION BEHIND THE FRONT...
WITH UPPER RIDGING BUILDING SOMEWHAT OVER THE REGION.
WITH CLOUD COVER AND NORTHEAST/EASTERLY FLOW...HIGHS ON FRIDAY
WILL MOSTLY BE IN THE 70S. LOWS TONIGHT AND FRIDAY NIGHT WILL
MAINLY BE IN THE 50S.
SLOW WARMING WILL COMMENCE DURING THE WEEKEND. EVEN SO...FAIRLY
PLEASANT TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE. BY LATE SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY...
THE AFOREMENTIONED UPPER RIDGE WILL SHIFT A BIT...ALLOWING FOR
SEVERAL WAVES TO MOVE THROUGH AROUND THE PERIPHERY OF IT. AT THE
SAME TIME...THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY THAT MOVED THROUGH TODAY WILL
MOVE BACK TO THE NORTH AS A WARM FRONT. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR
SCATTERED SHOWERS/STORMS TO BE POSSIBLE...MAINLY IN THE AFTERNOON
AND EARLY EVENING HOURS AS THE SYSTEMS INTERACT.
LONG TERM...MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY
AN UPPER RIDGE WILL BE OVER THE AREA TO BEGIN THE PERIOD WITH AN
UPPER TROUGH OVER THE WESTERN U.S. AND AN UPPER LOW OVER THE
NORTHEAST U.S. THE UPPER RIDGE STARTS TO MOVE EAST TUESDAY AND THE
UPPER TROUGH MOVES TO THE ROCKIES WEDNESDAY. SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT
WILL BE OVER ARKANSAS WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.
MODELS ARE IN SIMILAR AGREEMENT FOR THE EXTENDED PERIOD. A
STATIONARY FRONT IS EXPECTED TO BE OVER SOUTHERN ARKANSAS MONDAY
MORNING. MOISTURE OVERRUNNING THIS FRONT MAY CAUSE ISOLATED SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE NORTH. KEPT THE SLIGHT CHANCE IN THE
NORTH FOR MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS INTO THE AREA FROM THE EAST WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY AND THIS
SHOULD DECREASE PRECIPITATION CHANCES. TEMPERATURES WILL BE SLIGHTLY
WARMER BEHIND THE FRONT AND WILL REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THE
PERIOD.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BATESVILLE AR 81 51 73 50 / 10 10 0 0
CAMDEN AR 86 63 79 55 / 20 20 10 0
HARRISON AR 75 51 71 49 / 10 10 0 0
HOT SPRINGS AR 82 60 76 55 / 20 20 10 0
LITTLE ROCK AR 83 59 78 54 / 10 10 0 0
MONTICELLO AR 85 62 79 54 / 20 20 10 0
MOUNT IDA AR 79 60 77 53 / 20 20 10 0
MOUNTAIN HOME AR 78 50 72 49 / 10 10 0 0
NEWPORT AR 82 52 73 50 / 10 10 0 0
PINE BLUFF AR 83 60 75 55 / 20 20 0 0
RUSSELLVILLE AR 81 58 78 52 / 10 10 10 0
SEARCY AR 83 55 75 51 / 10 10 0 0
STUTTGART AR 82 58 74 54 / 10 10 0 0
&&
.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&
$$
000
FXUS64 KLZK 232324
AFDLZK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
624 PM CDT THU MAY 23 2013
.AVIATION...
VFR THROUGH0UT THIS FORECAST PERIOD. SCT MID CLOUDS AT TIMES WITH
BKN HIGH CLOUDS ABOVE. LOOKS LIKE WE WILL HAVE SOME BREEZY WINDS
BEGINNING SOON AFTER SUNRISE IN CENTRAL AND S AR...SO BUMPED UP
THE WIND FORECAST THEN.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 239 PM CDT THU MAY 23 2013/
SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT
AT THE SURFACE...A STATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS SET UP JUST TO
THE SOUTH OF THE REGION. UPPER WAVE HAS TOUCHED OFF SHOWERS/STORMS
IN OKLAHOMA...WHICH HAVE WANED IN THE LAST FEW HOURS. THE CIRRUS
SHIELD FROM THE STORMS HAS KEPT TEMPERATURES MOSTLY IN THE 70S IN
THE NORTHWEST HALF OF THE STATE...WHILE READINGS ELSEWHERE HAVE
BEEN IN THE LOWER TO MID 80S.
THERE WILL BE SMALL CHANCES FOR SHOWERS/STORMS THIS EVENING IN THE
FAR SOUTHWEST...CLOSE TO THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND ANY INTERACTION
WITH THE REMNANTS FROM THE MORNING SYSTEM. OTHERWISE...COOLER AND
DRIER AIR WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH INTO THE REGION BEHIND THE FRONT...
WITH UPPER RIDGING BUILDING SOMEWHAT OVER THE REGION.
WITH CLOUD COVER AND NORTHEAST/EASTERLY FLOW...HIGHS ON FRIDAY
WILL MOSTLY BE IN THE 70S. LOWS TONIGHT AND FRIDAY NIGHT WILL
MAINLY BE IN THE 50S.
SLOW WARMING WILL COMMENCE DURING THE WEEKEND. EVEN SO...FAIRLY
PLEASANT TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE. BY LATE SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY...
THE AFOREMENTIONED UPPER RIDGE WILL SHIFT A BIT...ALLOWING FOR
SEVERAL WAVES TO MOVE THROUGH AROUND THE PERIPHERY OF IT. AT THE
SAME TIME...THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY THAT MOVED THROUGH TODAY WILL
MOVE BACK TO THE NORTH AS A WARM FRONT. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR
SCATTERED SHOWERS/STORMS TO BE POSSIBLE...MAINLY IN THE AFTERNOON
AND EARLY EVENING HOURS AS THE SYSTEMS INTERACT.
LONG TERM...MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY
AN UPPER RIDGE WILL BE OVER THE AREA TO BEGIN THE PERIOD WITH AN
UPPER TROUGH OVER THE WESTERN U.S. AND AN UPPER LOW OVER THE
NORTHEAST U.S. THE UPPER RIDGE STARTS TO MOVE EAST TUESDAY AND THE
UPPER TROUGH MOVES TO THE ROCKIES WEDNESDAY. SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT
WILL BE OVER ARKANSAS WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.
MODELS ARE IN SIMILAR AGREEMENT FOR THE EXTENDED PERIOD. A
STATIONARY FRONT IS EXPECTED TO BE OVER SOUTHERN ARKANSAS MONDAY
MORNING. MOISTURE OVERRUNNING THIS FRONT MAY CAUSE ISOLATED SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE NORTH. KEPT THE SLIGHT CHANCE IN THE
NORTH FOR MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS INTO THE AREA FROM THE EAST WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY AND THIS
SHOULD DECREASE PRECIPITATION CHANCES. TEMPERATURES WILL BE SLIGHTLY
WARMER BEHIND THE FRONT AND WILL REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THE
PERIOD.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BATESVILLE AR 52 73 50 77 / 10 0 0 10
CAMDEN AR 62 79 55 84 / 20 10 0 0
HARRISON AR 50 71 49 78 / 10 0 0 20
HOT SPRINGS AR 60 76 55 81 / 20 10 0 10
LITTLE ROCK AR 58 78 54 81 / 10 0 0 10
MONTICELLO AR 63 79 54 81 / 20 10 0 0
MOUNT IDA AR 57 77 53 80 / 20 10 0 10
MOUNTAIN HOME AR 49 72 49 79 / 10 0 0 10
NEWPORT AR 52 73 50 77 / 10 0 0 0
PINE BLUFF AR 61 75 55 79 / 20 0 0 0
RUSSELLVILLE AR 56 78 52 80 / 10 10 0 10
SEARCY AR 55 75 51 78 / 10 0 0 0
STUTTGART AR 58 74 54 79 / 10 0 0 0
&&
.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&
$$
AVIATION...28
000
FXUS64 KLZK 231939
AFDLZK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
239 PM CDT THU MAY 23 2013
.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT
AT THE SURFACE...A STATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS SET UP JUST TO
THE SOUTH OF THE REGION. UPPER WAVE HAS TOUCHED OFF SHOWERS/STORMS
IN OKLAHOMA...WHICH HAVE WANED IN THE LAST FEW HOURS. THE CIRRUS
SHIELD FROM THE STORMS HAS KEPT TEMPERATURES MOSTLY IN THE 70S IN
THE NORTHWEST HALF OF THE STATE...WHILE READINGS ELSEWHERE HAVE
BEEN IN THE LOWER TO MID 80S.
THERE WILL BE SMALL CHANCES FOR SHOWERS/STORMS THIS EVENING IN THE
FAR SOUTHWEST...CLOSE TO THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND ANY INTERACTION
WITH THE REMNANTS FROM THE MORNING SYSTEM. OTHERWISE...COOLER AND
DRIER AIR WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH INTO THE REGION BEHIND THE FRONT...
WITH UPPER RIDGING BUILDING SOMEWHAT OVER THE REGION.
WITH CLOUD COVER AND NORTHEAST/EASTERLY FLOW...HIGHS ON FRIDAY
WILL MOSTLY BE IN THE 70S. LOWS TONIGHT AND FRIDAY NIGHT WILL
MAINLY BE IN THE 50S.
SLOW WARMING WILL COMMENCE DURING THE WEEKEND. EVEN SO...FAIRLY
PLEASANT TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE. BY LATE SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY...
THE AFOREMENTIONED UPPER RIDGE WILL SHIFT A BIT...ALLOWING FOR
SEVERAL WAVES TO MOVE THROUGH AROUND THE PERIPHERY OF IT. AT THE
SAME TIME...THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY THAT MOVED THROUGH TODAY WILL
MOVE BACK TO THE NORTH AS A WARM FRONT. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR
SCATTERED SHOWERS/STORMS TO BE POSSIBLE...MAINLY IN THE AFTERNOON
AND EARLY EVENING HOURS AS THE SYSTEMS INTERACT.
&&
.LONG TERM...MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY
AN UPPER RIDGE WILL BE OVER THE AREA TO BEGIN THE PERIOD WITH AN
UPPER TROUGH OVER THE WESTERN U.S. AND AN UPPER LOW OVER THE
NORTHEAST U.S. THE UPPER RIDGE STARTS TO MOVE EAST TUESDAY AND THE
UPPER TROUGH MOVES TO THE ROCKIES WEDNESDAY. SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT
WILL BE OVER ARKANSAS WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.
MODELS ARE IN SIMILAR AGREEMENT FOR THE EXTENDED PERIOD. A
STATIONARY FRONT IS EXPECTED TO BE OVER SOUTHERN ARKANSAS MONDAY
MORNING. MOISTURE OVERRUNNING THIS FRONT MAY CAUSE ISOLATED SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE NORTH. KEPT THE SLIGHT CHANCE IN THE
NORTH FOR MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS INTO THE AREA FROM THE EAST WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY AND THIS
SHOULD DECREASE PRECIPITATION CHANCES. TEMPERATURES WILL BE SLIGHTLY
WARMER BEHIND THE FRONT AND WILL REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THE
PERIOD.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BATESVILLE AR 52 73 50 77 / 10 0 0 10
CAMDEN AR 62 79 55 84 / 20 10 0 0
HARRISON AR 50 71 49 78 / 10 0 0 20
HOT SPRINGS AR 60 76 55 81 / 20 10 0 10
LITTLE ROCK AR 58 78 54 81 / 10 0 0 10
MONTICELLO AR 63 79 54 81 / 20 10 0 0
MOUNT IDA AR 57 77 53 80 / 20 10 0 10
MOUNTAIN HOME AR 49 72 49 79 / 10 0 0 10
NEWPORT AR 52 73 50 77 / 10 0 0 0
PINE BLUFF AR 61 75 55 79 / 20 0 0 0
RUSSELLVILLE AR 56 78 52 80 / 10 10 0 10
SEARCY AR 55 75 51 78 / 10 0 0 0
STUTTGART AR 58 74 54 79 / 10 0 0 0
&&
.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...57 / LONG TERM...51
000
FXUS64 KLZK 231747
AFDLZK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
1247 PM CDT THU MAY 23 2013
.AVIATION...
A COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO MOVE THROUGH SOUTHERN ARKANSAS. CIRRUS
BLOWOFF FROM STORMS IN OKLAHOMA CONTINUE TO OVERSPREAD ARKANSAS.
SOME MID CLOUDS ARE ALSO MIXED IN. ALSO CUMULUS STARTED DEVELOPING
IN SOUTH ARKANSAS BELOW THE CIRRUS DECK. CHANCES OF SHOWERS ARE
VERY LOW. DID NOT INCLUDE PRECIPITATION IN THE TAFS. EAST WINDS
WILL INCREASE FRIDAY MORNING. VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE
PERIOD.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 610 AM CDT THU MAY 23 2013/
DISCUSSION...
UPDATED TO INCLUDE THE 12Z AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW...
AVIATION...
OVERALL VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. FEW TO
SCATTERED CLOUDS WILL BE SEEN WITH SOME BROKEN CEILINGS DUE TO
CONVECTION OVER OKLAHOMA SPREADING SOUTHEAST TODAY. THIS AFTERNOON
SOME ISOLATED CONVECTION MAY BE SEEN AT CENTRAL TO SOUTHERN TAF
SITES...BUT ONLY WENT WITH VCSH AT THIS TIME DUE TO UNCERTAINTY IF
THUNDERSTORMS WILL HOLD TOGETHER OR REDEVELOP. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT
THIS MORNING BECOMING MORE W TO NW LESS THAN 10 KNOTS THROUGH THE
DAY. ALSO A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL SAG INTO AR LATE DAY TO THIS
EVENING AND BRING SOME ADDITIONAL CLOUDS BUT REMAIN VFR...WHILE
WINDS WILL BECOME MORE N TO NE AT LESS THAN 10 KNOTS.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 209 AM CDT THU MAY 23 2013/
SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY
DISTURBANCE ALOFT WILL MOVE SE OVER SWRN AR THIS AFTERNOON AS UPPER
FLOW TURNS NW OVER THE REGION. THIS DISTURBANCE COULD TRIGGER SOME
SHRA/TSRA ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE CWA...AT THE SAME TIME A COLD
FRONT MOVES SE THROUGH THE STATE LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
HAVE THE BEST POPS...EVEN THOUGH ONLY SLIGHT CHANCE...ACROSS THE WRN
AND SWRN THIRD OF THE CWA. PRECIP CHANCES WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE FAR
SW AND WEST DURING THE OVERNIGHT HRS...BUT AGAIN ONLY SLIGHT CHANCE
FOR NOW AS THE FRONT PROGRESSES SW.
MUCH DRIER AND COOLER AIR WILL MOVE INTO THE STATE BEHIND THIS
FRONT...WITH NO PRECIP EXPECTED FOR FRI AND FRI NIGHT. TEMPS WILL BE
BELOW NORMAL FOR THIS PERIOD...WITH HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE UPPER 60S
TO UPPER 70S ON FRI. SAT MORNING LOWS WILL BE COOL...WITH LOWS IN
THE UPPER 40S TO UPPER 50S.
WARMING WILL BEGIN BY SAT AFTERNOON AS SFC WINDS TURN TO THE
SOUTH...AS WELL AS WITH AN UPPER RIDGE OVERHEAD. THIS RIDGE WILL
BEGIN WEAKENING SOME LATE FOR SUN. WEAK UPPER DISTURBANCES WILL
RIDGE OVER THIS WEAKENING UPPER RIDGE TO THE NORTH AND NW OF THE
STATE...WITH INCREASED CHANCES FOR SHRA/TSRA FOR LATE IN THE PERIOD.
BEST CHANCES FOR ANY PRECIP WILL BE ACROSS THE NRN AND NWRN
COUNTIES SUN AND SUN NIGHT. HIGHS ON SUN WILL BE BACK IN THE 70S
AND 80S...WITH LOWS GENERALLY IN THE 60S.
LONG TERM...MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY
THE EXTENDED FORECAST GENERALLY HAS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE TO THE
EAST OF AR WITH A SOUTH WIND FLOW INTO THE REGION...WHILE AN UPPER
HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL BE OVER MUCH OF THE EAST CENTRAL TO EASTERN
PLAINS AND TO THE EASTERN U.S. THIS WILL KEEP MOSTLY DRY AND WARM
WEATHER CONDITIONS...WITH GRADUAL INCREASING MOISTURE OVER THE
REGION. EARLY IN THE EXTEND FORECAST SOME UPPER ENERGY MAY REACH
NORTHWESTERN AREAS AND A SLIGHT CHANCE OF CONVECTION IS IN THE
FORECAST OVER THESE AREAS. AFTER THAT THE UPPER RIDGE OVER THE AREA
SHOULD KEEP ANY CHANCES VERY LOW...AND MAINLY ONLY AN ISOLATED
AFTERNOON TO EARLY EVENING STORM WOULD BE POSSIBLE. TEMPS WILL BE AT
OR A BIT ABOVE NORMAL VALUES.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BATESVILLE AR 53 73 51 78 / 10 0 0 10
CAMDEN AR 64 79 58 83 / 20 10 0 10
HARRISON AR 52 72 52 78 / 10 0 0 20
HOT SPRINGS AR 61 77 56 81 / 20 10 0 10
LITTLE ROCK AR 60 75 55 80 / 10 0 0 10
MONTICELLO AR 62 78 56 81 / 20 10 0 10
MOUNT IDA AR 60 77 56 81 / 20 10 0 10
MOUNTAIN HOME AR 51 73 52 78 / 10 0 0 10
NEWPORT AR 54 73 51 78 / 10 0 0 10
PINE BLUFF AR 61 76 55 80 / 20 0 0 10
RUSSELLVILLE AR 59 76 55 80 / 10 10 0 10
SEARCY AR 57 73 51 78 / 10 0 0 10
STUTTGART AR 59 74 53 79 / 10 0 0 10
&&
.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&
$$
AVIATION...51
000
FXUS64 KLZK 231110 AAA
AFDLZK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
610 AM CDT THU MAY 23 2013
.DISCUSSION...
UPDATED TO INCLUDE THE 12Z AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW...
&&
.AVIATION...
OVERALL VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. FEW TO
SCATTERED CLOUDS WILL BE SEEN WITH SOME BROKEN CEILINGS DUE TO
CONVECTION OVER OKLAHOMA SPREADING SOUTHEAST TODAY. THIS AFTERNOON
SOME ISOLATED CONVECTION MAY BE SEEN AT CENTRAL TO SOUTHERN TAF
SITES...BUT ONLY WENT WITH VCSH AT THIS TIME DUE TO UNCERTAINTY IF
THUNDERSTORMS WILL HOLD TOGETHER OR REDEVELOP. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT
THIS MORNING BECOMING MORE W TO NW LESS THAN 10 KNOTS THROUGH THE
DAY. ALSO A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL SAG INTO AR LATE DAY TO THIS
EVENING AND BRING SOME ADDITIONAL CLOUDS BUT REMAIN VFR...WHILE
WINDS WILL BECOME MORE N TO NE AT LESS THAN 10 KNOTS.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 209 AM CDT THU MAY 23 2013/
SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY
DISTURBANCE ALOFT WILL MOVE SE OVER SWRN AR THIS AFTERNOON AS UPPER
FLOW TURNS NW OVER THE REGION. THIS DISTURBANCE COULD TRIGGER SOME
SHRA/TSRA ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE CWA...AT THE SAME TIME A COLD
FRONT MOVES SE THROUGH THE STATE LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
HAVE THE BEST POPS...EVEN THOUGH ONLY SLIGHT CHANCE...ACROSS THE WRN
AND SWRN THIRD OF THE CWA. PRECIP CHANCES WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE FAR
SW AND WEST DURING THE OVERNIGHT HRS...BUT AGAIN ONLY SLIGHT CHANCE
FOR NOW AS THE FRONT PROGRESSES SW.
MUCH DRIER AND COOLER AIR WILL MOVE INTO THE STATE BEHIND THIS
FRONT...WITH NO PRECIP EXPECTED FOR FRI AND FRI NIGHT. TEMPS WILL BE
BELOW NORMAL FOR THIS PERIOD...WITH HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE UPPER 60S
TO UPPER 70S ON FRI. SAT MORNING LOWS WILL BE COOL...WITH LOWS IN
THE UPPER 40S TO UPPER 50S.
WARMING WILL BEGIN BY SAT AFTERNOON AS SFC WINDS TURN TO THE
SOUTH...AS WELL AS WITH AN UPPER RIDGE OVERHEAD. THIS RIDGE WILL
BEGIN WEAKENING SOME LATE FOR SUN. WEAK UPPER DISTURBANCES WILL
RIDGE OVER THIS WEAKENING UPPER RIDGE TO THE NORTH AND NW OF THE
STATE...WITH INCREASED CHANCES FOR SHRA/TSRA FOR LATE IN THE PERIOD.
BEST CHANCES FOR ANY PRECIP WILL BE ACROSS THE NRN AND NWRN
COUNTIES SUN AND SUN NIGHT. HIGHS ON SUN WILL BE BACK IN THE 70S
AND 80S...WITH LOWS GENERALLY IN THE 60S.
LONG TERM...MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY
THE EXTENDED FORECAST GENERALLY HAS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE TO THE
EAST OF AR WITH A SOUTH WIND FLOW INTO THE REGION...WHILE AN UPPER
HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL BE OVER MUCH OF THE EAST CENTRAL TO EASTERN
PLAINS AND TO THE EASTERN U.S. THIS WILL KEEP MOSTLY DRY AND WARM
WEATHER CONDITIONS...WITH GRADUAL INCREASING MOISTURE OVER THE
REGION. EARLY IN THE EXTEND FORECAST SOME UPPER ENERGY MAY REACH
NORTHWESTERN AREAS AND A SLIGHT CHANCE OF CONVECTION IS IN THE
FORECAST OVER THESE AREAS. AFTER THAT THE UPPER RIDGE OVER THE AREA
SHOULD KEEP ANY CHANCES VERY LOW...AND MAINLY ONLY AN ISOLATED
AFTERNOON TO EARLY EVENING STORM WOULD BE POSSIBLE. TEMPS WILL BE AT
OR A BIT ABOVE NORMAL VALUES.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BATESVILLE AR 80 53 73 51 / 10 10 0 0
CAMDEN AR 89 64 79 58 / 20 20 10 0
HARRISON AR 76 52 72 52 / 10 10 0 0
HOT SPRINGS AR 86 61 77 56 / 20 20 10 0
LITTLE ROCK AR 86 60 75 55 / 10 10 0 0
MONTICELLO AR 89 62 78 56 / 20 20 10 0
MOUNT IDA AR 85 60 77 56 / 20 20 10 0
MOUNTAIN HOME AR 77 51 73 52 / 10 10 0 0
NEWPORT AR 81 54 73 51 / 10 10 0 0
PINE BLUFF AR 87 61 76 55 / 20 20 0 0
RUSSELLVILLE AR 84 59 76 55 / 10 10 10 0
SEARCY AR 83 57 73 51 / 10 10 0 0
STUTTGART AR 85 59 74 53 / 10 10 0 0
&&
.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&
$$
AVIATION...59
| 
