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000
FXUS64 KLZK 241934
AFDLZK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
234 PM CDT THU JUL 24 2014

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT
HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT CONTINUES OVER THE WESTERN U.S. WITH A TROUGH
OF LOW PRESSURE OVER THE EASTERN U.S. THIS PATTERN WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH SATURDAY. AN UPPER LOW MOVES INTO THE NORTHERN U.S. SATURDAY
NIGHT FLATTENING THE RIDGE AND DEEPENING THE TROUGH OVER THE EAST.

THE COLD FRONT THAT PASSED THROUGH ARKANSAS WEDNESDAY WILL MOVE BACK
TO THE NORTH ON FRIDAY AS A WARM FRONT. NO PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED
WITH THE FRONT HOWEVER. WARMER TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED FRIDAY
THROUGH SUNDAY...AS HIGH PRESSURE TAKES CONTROL AND SOUTHEAST AND
SOUTH WINDS RETURN. ANOTHER COLD FRONT MOVES INTO THE PLAINS FRIDAY
AND THIS WILL MOVE INTO NORTH ARKANSAS SUNDAY. WILL INCLUDE A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITH THIS FRONT SUNDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM...MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY
FRONT WILL BE MOVING INTO SOUTHERN ARKANSAS AT THE BEGINNING OF THE
PERIOD...WITH SHOWERS/STORMS POSSIBLE. COOLER AIR WILL MOVE IN
BEHIND THE FRONT...AS IT STALLS NEAR OR JUST SOUTH OF THE LOUISIANA
BORDER.

IN FACT...NEAR RECORD LOWS WILL BE POSSIBLE MONDAY NIGHT/TUESDAY
MORNING...AND AGAIN TUESDAY NIGHT/WEDNESDAY MORNING...AS READINGS
FALL INTO THE 50S AND 60S. YES...YOU HEARD ME...50S AND 60S.

HIGHS INTO THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD WILL LIKELY ONLY REACH THE
UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S.

BY LATE TUESDAY NIGHT...SURFACE LOW PRESSURE WILL FORM ALONG THE
STALLED FRONT TO THE WEST OF THE REGION. WHILE IT MAY NOT MOVE THE
SURFACE BOUNDARY MUCH...IT SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO PUSH ENOUGH MOISTURE
INTO THE REGION AND INTERACT WITH AN UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM AND BRING
SHOWERS/STORMS TO THE AREA TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BATESVILLE AR     60  89  68  91 /   0   0   0  10
CAMDEN AR         66  93  70  94 /   0   0   0  10
HARRISON AR       60  90  69  92 /   0   0   0  10
HOT SPRINGS AR    64  92  69  94 /   0   0   0  10
LITTLE ROCK   AR  61  91  69  93 /   0   0   0  10
MONTICELLO AR     64  92  68  93 /   0   0   0  10
MOUNT IDA AR      65  92  70  95 /   0   0   0  10
MOUNTAIN HOME AR  60  90  68  91 /   0   0   0  10
NEWPORT AR        60  89  68  91 /   0   0   0  10
PINE BLUFF AR     62  91  69  93 /   0   0   0  10
RUSSELLVILLE AR   63  91  69  93 /   0   0   0  10
SEARCY AR         60  90  68  92 /   0   0   0  10
STUTTGART AR      61  91  69  92 /   0   0   0  10
&&

.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...51 / LONG TERM...57





000
FXUS64 KLZK 241934
AFDLZK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
234 PM CDT THU JUL 24 2014

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT
HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT CONTINUES OVER THE WESTERN U.S. WITH A TROUGH
OF LOW PRESSURE OVER THE EASTERN U.S. THIS PATTERN WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH SATURDAY. AN UPPER LOW MOVES INTO THE NORTHERN U.S. SATURDAY
NIGHT FLATTENING THE RIDGE AND DEEPENING THE TROUGH OVER THE EAST.

THE COLD FRONT THAT PASSED THROUGH ARKANSAS WEDNESDAY WILL MOVE BACK
TO THE NORTH ON FRIDAY AS A WARM FRONT. NO PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED
WITH THE FRONT HOWEVER. WARMER TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED FRIDAY
THROUGH SUNDAY...AS HIGH PRESSURE TAKES CONTROL AND SOUTHEAST AND
SOUTH WINDS RETURN. ANOTHER COLD FRONT MOVES INTO THE PLAINS FRIDAY
AND THIS WILL MOVE INTO NORTH ARKANSAS SUNDAY. WILL INCLUDE A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITH THIS FRONT SUNDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM...MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY
FRONT WILL BE MOVING INTO SOUTHERN ARKANSAS AT THE BEGINNING OF THE
PERIOD...WITH SHOWERS/STORMS POSSIBLE. COOLER AIR WILL MOVE IN
BEHIND THE FRONT...AS IT STALLS NEAR OR JUST SOUTH OF THE LOUISIANA
BORDER.

IN FACT...NEAR RECORD LOWS WILL BE POSSIBLE MONDAY NIGHT/TUESDAY
MORNING...AND AGAIN TUESDAY NIGHT/WEDNESDAY MORNING...AS READINGS
FALL INTO THE 50S AND 60S. YES...YOU HEARD ME...50S AND 60S.

HIGHS INTO THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD WILL LIKELY ONLY REACH THE
UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S.

BY LATE TUESDAY NIGHT...SURFACE LOW PRESSURE WILL FORM ALONG THE
STALLED FRONT TO THE WEST OF THE REGION. WHILE IT MAY NOT MOVE THE
SURFACE BOUNDARY MUCH...IT SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO PUSH ENOUGH MOISTURE
INTO THE REGION AND INTERACT WITH AN UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM AND BRING
SHOWERS/STORMS TO THE AREA TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BATESVILLE AR     60  89  68  91 /   0   0   0  10
CAMDEN AR         66  93  70  94 /   0   0   0  10
HARRISON AR       60  90  69  92 /   0   0   0  10
HOT SPRINGS AR    64  92  69  94 /   0   0   0  10
LITTLE ROCK   AR  61  91  69  93 /   0   0   0  10
MONTICELLO AR     64  92  68  93 /   0   0   0  10
MOUNT IDA AR      65  92  70  95 /   0   0   0  10
MOUNTAIN HOME AR  60  90  68  91 /   0   0   0  10
NEWPORT AR        60  89  68  91 /   0   0   0  10
PINE BLUFF AR     62  91  69  93 /   0   0   0  10
RUSSELLVILLE AR   63  91  69  93 /   0   0   0  10
SEARCY AR         60  90  68  92 /   0   0   0  10
STUTTGART AR      61  91  69  92 /   0   0   0  10
&&

.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...51 / LONG TERM...57






000
FXUS64 KLZK 241706 AAA
AFDLZK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
1206 PM CDT THU JUL 24 2014

.AVIATION...
STRATUS/STRATOCU DECK OVER THE WEST AND CENTRAL WILL SLOWLY
DIMINISH OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS...WITH CONDITIONS BECOMING VFR IN
ALL AREAS BY LATE AFTERNOON.

TAFS OUT SHORTLY.
&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1029 AM CDT THU JUL 24 2014/

UPDATE...
INCREASED CLOUD COVER OVER THE WESTERN PART OF THE AREA FOR THE
REST OF THE MORNING. DRIER AIR WILL MOVE INTO THE STATE FROM THE
NORTHEAST THIS AFTERNOON AND DIMINISH CLOUD COVER. ADJUSTED
TEMPERATURES BASED ON CURRENT OBSERVATIONS AND TRENDS. RAINFALL IS
NOT EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON.
&&

.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&

$$

AVIATION...57




000
FXUS64 KLZK 241706 AAA
AFDLZK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
1206 PM CDT THU JUL 24 2014

.AVIATION...
STRATUS/STRATOCU DECK OVER THE WEST AND CENTRAL WILL SLOWLY
DIMINISH OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS...WITH CONDITIONS BECOMING VFR IN
ALL AREAS BY LATE AFTERNOON.

TAFS OUT SHORTLY.
&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1029 AM CDT THU JUL 24 2014/

UPDATE...
INCREASED CLOUD COVER OVER THE WESTERN PART OF THE AREA FOR THE
REST OF THE MORNING. DRIER AIR WILL MOVE INTO THE STATE FROM THE
NORTHEAST THIS AFTERNOON AND DIMINISH CLOUD COVER. ADJUSTED
TEMPERATURES BASED ON CURRENT OBSERVATIONS AND TRENDS. RAINFALL IS
NOT EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON.
&&

.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&

$$

AVIATION...57





000
FXUS64 KLZK 241529
AFDLZK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
1029 AM CDT THU JUL 24 2014

.UPDATE...
INCREASED CLOUD COVER OVER THE WESTERN PART OF THE AREA FOR THE
REST OF THE MORNING. DRIER AIR WILL MOVE INTO THE STATE FROM THE
NORTHEAST THIS AFTERNOON AND DIMINISH CLOUD COVER. ADJUSTED
TEMPERATURES BASED ON CURRENT OBSERVATIONS AND TRENDS. RAINFALL IS
NOT EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 635 AM CDT THU JUL 24 2014/

DISCUSSION...

UPDATED FOR THE 12Z AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

AVIATION...

HAVE A MIX OF FOG AND LOW CLOUDS THIS MORNING...WITH LOW CLOUDS
BEING MORE PROMINENT THE FURTHER NORTH YOU GO IN THE STATE DUE TO
INFLUX OF DRIER AIR AT SURFACE. AS SUCH...FLIGHT CATEGORIES HAVE
BOUNCED AROUND SOMEWHAT. GUIDANCE SHOWS FOG AND/OR LOW CLOUDS
LIFTING TO VFR LEVELS BETWEEN 15Z-18Z MOST EVERYWHERE AND THIS IS
REFLECTED IN THE TAFS. WILL PROBABLY SEE DIURNALLY DRIVEN CU FIELD
WITH FEW-SCT BASES AROUND 5K FT AGL LATER TODAY...FOLLOWED BY
RETURN TO CLEAR SKIES AFTER SUNSET. EXPECT THERE WILL BE SOME FOG
AND/OR LOW CLOUDS AGAIN LATE TONIGHT BUT IT SHOULD BE A LITTLE
MORE HIT AND MISS FRI MORNING. LEFT IT OUT OF TAFS FOR THE TIME
BEING AS CONFIDENCE IN LOCATION AND HOW LOW FLIGHT CATEGORIES WILL
GO IS NOT HIGH AT THE MOMENT. HOWEVER...KHOT...KADF...AND NRN
SITES ARE THE MOST LIKELY TO SEE LOWER VSBY OR CIGS AGAIN LATE
TONIGHT.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 340 AM CDT THU JUL 24 2014/

TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...
OVERALL...FAIRLY BENIGN WEATHER IS EXPECTED WITH LITTLE IF ANY
CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION UNTIL LATE IN THE PERIOD. WITH ALL MODELS IN
BASIC AGREEMENT THROUGH THE PERIOD...A BLEND OF FORECAST SOLUTIONS
WILL BE USED.

LATEST SURFACE ANALYSIS PLACES THE SURFACE BOUNDARY THAT BLASTED
THROUGH THE STATE YESTERDAY IS NOW LOCATED OVER THE SOUTHERN AND
SOUTHWEST PARTS OF THE STATE. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING DOWN FROM THE
NORTHERN PLAINS WILL PUSH THE BOUNDARY SLOWLY TO THE SOUTH WHERE IT
IS EXPECTED TO STALL OUT ALONG THE LOUISIANA BORDER. AIR MASS BEHIND
THE FRONT IS SLIGHTLY COOLER AND DRIER THAN THE ONE IT IS REPLACING
BUT NOT NEARLY TO THE EXTENT THAT WAS ENJOYED EARLY LAST WEEK.

UPPER PATTERN REMAINS HIGHLY AMPLIFIED AT THIS TIME WITH SPRAWLING
UPPER RIDGE EXTENDING FROM THE NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS TO THE DESERT
SOUTHWEST. SUBSEQUENT DOWNSTREAM TROFFING OVER THE EASTERN CONUS
WILL KEEP THE AREA IN NORTHWEST FLOW THROUGH TONIGHT.

MEANWHILE...A STRONG UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS STRADDLING
THE BRITISH COLUMBIA AND WASHINGTON BORDER. THIS SYSTEM WILL PIVOT
OFF TO THE NORTHEAST INTO CENTRAL CANADA BEFORE MOVING BACK INTO THE
UNITED STATES OVER NORTHERN MINNESOTA LATE SATURDAY.

SYSTEM WILL KNOCK DOWN THE RIDGE BRIEFLY AND ALLOW IT TO EXPAND TO
THE EAST AND INTO THE MID SOUTH. THIS EASTERN EXPANSION WILL
COINCIDE WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED BOUNDARY LIFTING BACK TO THE
NORTHEAST AS A WARM FRONT WITH WIDESPREAD 90S RETURNING FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY. MAV/MEX NUMBERS LOOK GOOD THROUGH THE PERIOD AND ARE
GENERALLY ACCEPTED.

AS THE PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED UPPER LOW MOVES BACK INTO THE UNITED
STATES LATE SATURDAY...ITS SURFACE REFLECTION WILL DRAG A COLD FRONT
INTO NORTHERN ARKANSAS SUNDAY AFTERNOON. THIS BOUNDARY WILL CONTINUE
TO MOVE SOUTHWARD...REACHING THE ARKANSAS/LOUISIANA BORDER BY THE
END OF THE PERIOD. FRONT DOES NOT APPEAR OVERLY DYNAMIC AT THIS TIME
WITH THE PARENT LOW SO FAR OFF TO THE NORTHEAST BUT WILL STILL NEED
TO CARRY SLIGHT CHANCE TO LOW END CHANCE POPS AS IT MOVES THROUGH.

LONG TERM...MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY
NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES MADE TO THE LONG TERM PERIOD. BY MONDAY THE
UPPER LEVEL PATTERN WILL BECOME HIGHLY AMPLIFIED...WITH A LARGE
RIDGE OVER THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST AND A LARGE UPPER TROUGH CARVING
OUT A HOME ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE CONTINENTAL UNITED STATES.
A COLD FRONT WILL HAVE PUSHED INTO FAR SOUTHERN ARKANSAS OR NRN
LOUISIANA BY MONDAY MORNING AND SHOULD REMAIN STALLED THERE THROUGH
THE PERIOD. SOME SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THE
SOUTH DURING THE DAY...BUT MOST OF THE STATE LOOKS TO EXPERIENCE DRY
WEATHER MONDAY AND TUESDAY. TEMPS WILL BE SEVERAL DEGREES BELOW
NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD AS COOLER AND DRIER CONTINENTAL AIR
FILTERS INTO ARKANSAS FROM THE NORTH. HIGHS SHOULD REMAIN FIRMLY IN
THE 80S...ROUGHLY AROUND 85 DEGREES ON AVERAGE. BY WEDNESDAY ANOTHER
DISTURBANCE WILL BE DIVING SOUTH THROUGH THE PLAINS TOWARDS
ARKANSAS...EMBEDDED IN THE NORTHWEST UPPER FLOW ACROSS THE CENTRAL
CONUS. THIS SHOULD BEGIN TO SPREAD PRECIPITATION INTO WESTERN
ARKANSAS SOMETIME EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING...WITH RAIN BECOMING
FAIRLY WIDESPREAD ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE STATE DURING THE
DAY. CLOUD COVER AND RAINFALL MAY HOLD TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 70S
TO AROUND 80 IN THE SOUTHWEST HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA ON
WEDNESDAY...BUT LIMITED IT TO THE LOW 80S ON THE COOL SIDE FOR THE
TIME BEING.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BATESVILLE AR     85  62  90  69 /   0   0   0   0
CAMDEN AR         92  68  94  71 /  10   0   0   0
HARRISON AR       86  64  91  70 /   0   0   0   0
HOT SPRINGS AR    90  66  93  70 /  10   0   0   0
LITTLE ROCK   AR  88  63  92  70 /  10   0   0   0
MONTICELLO AR     91  66  93  69 /  10   0   0   0
MOUNT IDA AR      91  67  93  71 /  10   0   0   0
MOUNTAIN HOME AR  85  62  91  69 /   0   0   0   0
NEWPORT AR        85  62  90  69 /   0   0   0   0
PINE BLUFF AR     90  64  92  70 /  10   0   0   0
RUSSELLVILLE AR   88  65  92  70 /  10   0   0   0
SEARCY AR         86  62  91  69 /  10   0   0   0
STUTTGART AR      88  63  92  70 /  10   0   0   0
&&

.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&

$$

51





000
FXUS64 KLZK 241135 AAA
AFDLZK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
635 AM CDT THU JUL 24 2014

.DISCUSSION...

UPDATED FOR THE 12Z AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

&&

.AVIATION...

HAVE A MIX OF FOG AND LOW CLOUDS THIS MORNING...WITH LOW CLOUDS
BEING MORE PROMINENT THE FURTHER NORTH YOU GO IN THE STATE DUE TO
INFLUX OF DRIER AIR AT SURFACE. AS SUCH...FLIGHT CATEGORIES HAVE
BOUNCED AROUND SOMEWHAT. GUIDANCE SHOWS FOG AND/OR LOW CLOUDS
LIFTING TO VFR LEVELS BETWEEN 15Z-18Z MOST EVERYWHERE AND THIS IS
REFLECTED IN THE TAFS. WILL PROBABLY SEE DIURNALLY DRIVEN CU FIELD
WITH FEW-SCT BASES AROUND 5K FT AGL LATER TODAY...FOLLOWED BY
RETURN TO CLEAR SKIES AFTER SUNSET. EXPECT THERE WILL BE SOME FOG
AND/OR LOW CLOUDS AGAIN LATE TONIGHT BUT IT SHOULD BE A LITTLE
MORE HIT AND MISS FRI MORNING. LEFT IT OUT OF TAFS FOR THE TIME
BEING AS CONFIDENCE IN LOCATION AND HOW LOW FLIGHT CATEGORIES WILL
GO IS NOT HIGH AT THE MOMENT. HOWEVER...KHOT...KADF...AND NRN
SITES ARE THE MOST LIKELY TO SEE LOWER VSBY OR CIGS AGAIN LATE
TONIGHT.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 340 AM CDT THU JUL 24 2014/

TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...
OVERALL...FAIRLY BENIGN WEATHER IS EXPECTED WITH LITTLE IF ANY
CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION UNTIL LATE IN THE PERIOD. WITH ALL MODELS IN
BASIC AGREEMENT THROUGH THE PERIOD...A BLEND OF FORECAST SOLUTIONS
WILL BE USED.

LATEST SURFACE ANALYSIS PLACES THE SURFACE BOUNDARY THAT BLASTED
THROUGH THE STATE YESTERDAY IS NOW LOCATED OVER THE SOUTHERN AND
SOUTHWEST PARTS OF THE STATE. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING DOWN FROM THE
NORTHERN PLAINS WILL PUSH THE BOUNDARY SLOWLY TO THE SOUTH WHERE IT
IS EXPECTED TO STALL OUT ALONG THE LOUISIANA BORDER. AIR MASS BEHIND
THE FRONT IS SLIGHTLY COOLER AND DRIER THAN THE ONE IT IS REPLACING
BUT NOT NEARLY TO THE EXTENT THAT WAS ENJOYED EARLY LAST WEEK.

UPPER PATTERN REMAINS HIGHLY AMPLIFIED AT THIS TIME WITH SPRAWLING
UPPER RIDGE EXTENDING FROM THE NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS TO THE DESERT
SOUTHWEST. SUBSEQUENT DOWNSTREAM TROFFING OVER THE EASTERN CONUS
WILL KEEP THE AREA IN NORTHWEST FLOW THROUGH TONIGHT.

MEANWHILE...A STRONG UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS STRADDLING
THE BRITISH COLUMBIA AND WASHINGTON BORDER. THIS SYSTEM WILL PIVOT
OFF TO THE NORTHEAST INTO CENTRAL CANADA BEFORE MOVING BACK INTO THE
UNITED STATES OVER NORTHERN MINNESOTA LATE SATURDAY.

SYSTEM WILL KNOCK DOWN THE RIDGE BRIEFLY AND ALLOW IT TO EXPAND TO
THE EAST AND INTO THE MID SOUTH. THIS EASTERN EXPANSION WILL
COINCIDE WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED BOUNDARY LIFTING BACK TO THE
NORTHEAST AS A WARM FRONT WITH WIDESPREAD 90S RETURNING FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY. MAV/MEX NUMBERS LOOK GOOD THROUGH THE PERIOD AND ARE
GENERALLY ACCEPTED.

AS THE PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED UPPER LOW MOVES BACK INTO THE UNITED
STATES LATE SATURDAY...ITS SURFACE REFLECTION WILL DRAG A COLD FRONT
INTO NORTHERN ARKANSAS SUNDAY AFTERNOON. THIS BOUNDARY WILL CONTINUE
TO MOVE SOUTHWARD...REACHING THE ARKANSAS/LOUISIANA BORDER BY THE
END OF THE PERIOD. FRONT DOES NOT APPEAR OVERLY DYNAMIC AT THIS TIME
WITH THE PARENT LOW SO FAR OFF TO THE NORTHEAST BUT WILL STILL NEED
TO CARRY SLIGHT CHANCE TO LOW END CHANCE POPS AS IT MOVES THROUGH.

LONG TERM...MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY
NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES MADE TO THE LONG TERM PERIOD. BY MONDAY THE
UPPER LEVEL PATTERN WILL BECOME HIGHLY AMPLIFIED...WITH A LARGE
RIDGE OVER THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST AND A LARGE UPPER TROUGH CARVING
OUT A HOME ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE CONTINENTAL UNITED STATES.
A COLD FRONT WILL HAVE PUSHED INTO FAR SOUTHERN ARKANSAS OR NRN
LOUISIANA BY MONDAY MORNING AND SHOULD REMAIN STALLED THERE THROUGH
THE PERIOD. SOME SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THE
SOUTH DURING THE DAY...BUT MOST OF THE STATE LOOKS TO EXPERIENCE DRY
WEATHER MONDAY AND TUESDAY. TEMPS WILL BE SEVERAL DEGREES BELOW
NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD AS COOLER AND DRIER CONTINENTAL AIR
FILTERS INTO ARKANSAS FROM THE NORTH. HIGHS SHOULD REMAIN FIRMLY IN
THE 80S...ROUGHLY AROUND 85 DEGREES ON AVERAGE. BY WEDNESDAY ANOTHER
DISTURBANCE WILL BE DIVING SOUTH THROUGH THE PLAINS TOWARDS
ARKANSAS...EMBEDDED IN THE NORTHWEST UPPER FLOW ACROSS THE CENTRAL
CONUS. THIS SHOULD BEGIN TO SPREAD PRECIPITATION INTO WESTERN
ARKANSAS SOMETIME EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING...WITH RAIN BECOMING
FAIRLY WIDESPREAD ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE STATE DURING THE
DAY. CLOUD COVER AND RAINFALL MAY HOLD TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 70S
TO AROUND 80 IN THE SOUTHWEST HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA ON
WEDNESDAY...BUT LIMITED IT TO THE LOW 80S ON THE COOL SIDE FOR THE
TIME BEING.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BATESVILLE AR     85  62  90  69 /   0   0   0   0
CAMDEN AR         92  68  94  71 /  10   0   0   0
HARRISON AR       86  64  91  70 /   0   0   0   0
HOT SPRINGS AR    90  66  93  70 /  10   0   0   0
LITTLE ROCK   AR  88  63  92  70 /  10   0   0   0
MONTICELLO AR     91  66  93  69 /  10   0   0   0
MOUNT IDA AR      91  67  93  71 /  10   0   0   0
MOUNTAIN HOME AR  85  62  91  69 /   0   0   0   0
NEWPORT AR        85  62  90  69 /   0   0   0   0
PINE BLUFF AR     90  64  92  70 /  10   0   0   0
RUSSELLVILLE AR   88  65  92  70 /  10   0   0   0
SEARCY AR         86  62  91  69 /  10   0   0   0
STUTTGART AR      88  63  92  70 /  10   0   0   0
&&

.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&

$$


AVIATION...64






000
FXUS64 KLZK 240841
AFDLZK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
340 AM CDT THU JUL 24 2014

.TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...
OVERALL...FAIRLY BENIGN WEATHER IS EXPECTED WITH LITTLE IF ANY
CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION UNTIL LATE IN THE PERIOD. WITH ALL MODELS IN
BASIC AGREEMENT THROUGH THE PERIOD...A BLEND OF FORECAST SOLUTIONS
WILL BE USED.

LATEST SURFACE ANALYSIS PLACES THE SURFACE BOUNDARY THAT BLASTED
THROUGH THE STATE YESTERDAY IS NOW LOCATED OVER THE SOUTHERN AND
SOUTHWEST PARTS OF THE STATE. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING DOWN FROM THE
NORTHERN PLAINS WILL PUSH THE BOUNDARY SLOWLY TO THE SOUTH WHERE IT
IS EXPECTED TO STALL OUT ALONG THE LOUISIANA BORDER. AIR MASS BEHIND
THE FRONT IS SLIGHTLY COOLER AND DRIER THAN THE ONE IT IS REPLACING
BUT NOT NEARLY TO THE EXTENT THAT WAS ENJOYED EARLY LAST WEEK.

UPPER PATTERN REMAINS HIGHLY AMPLIFIED AT THIS TIME WITH SPRAWLING
UPPER RIDGE EXTENDING FROM THE NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS TO THE DESERT
SOUTHWEST. SUBSEQUENT DOWNSTREAM TROFFING OVER THE EASTERN CONUS
WILL KEEP THE AREA IN NORTHWEST FLOW THROUGH TONIGHT.

MEANWHILE...A STRONG UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS STRADDLING
THE BRITISH COLUMBIA AND WASHINGTON BORDER. THIS SYSTEM WILL PIVOT
OFF TO THE NORTHEAST INTO CENTRAL CANADA BEFORE MOVING BACK INTO THE
UNITED STATES OVER NORTHERN MINNESOTA LATE SATURDAY.

SYSTEM WILL KNOCK DOWN THE RIDGE BRIEFLY AND ALLOW IT TO EXPAND TO
THE EAST AND INTO THE MID SOUTH. THIS EASTERN EXPANSION WILL
COINCIDE WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED BOUNDARY LIFTING BACK TO THE
NORTHEAST AS A WARM FRONT WITH WIDESPREAD 90S RETURNING FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY. MAV/MEX NUMBERS LOOK GOOD THROUGH THE PERIOD AND ARE
GENERALLY ACCEPTED.

AS THE PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED UPPER LOW MOVES BACK INTO THE UNITED
STATES LATE SATURDAY...ITS SURFACE REFLECTION WILL DRAG A COLD FRONT
INTO NORTHERN ARKANSAS SUNDAY AFTERNOON. THIS BOUNDARY WILL CONTINUE
TO MOVE SOUTHWARD...REACHING THE ARKANSAS/LOUISIANA BORDER BY THE
END OF THE PERIOD. FRONT DOES NOT APPEAR OVERLY DYNAMIC AT THIS TIME
WITH THE PARENT LOW SO FAR OFF TO THE NORTHEAST BUT WILL STILL NEED
TO CARRY SLIGHT CHANCE TO LOW END CHANCE POPS AS IT MOVES THROUGH.

&&

.LONG TERM...MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY
NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES MADE TO THE LONG TERM PERIOD. BY MONDAY THE
UPPER LEVEL PATTERN WILL BECOME HIGHLY AMPLIFIED...WITH A LARGE
RIDGE OVER THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST AND A LARGE UPPER TROUGH CARVING
OUT A HOME ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE CONTINENTAL UNITED STATES.
A COLD FRONT WILL HAVE PUSHED INTO FAR SOUTHERN ARKANSAS OR NRN
LOUISIANA BY MONDAY MORNING AND SHOULD REMAIN STALLED THERE THROUGH
THE PERIOD. SOME SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THE
SOUTH DURING THE DAY...BUT MOST OF THE STATE LOOKS TO EXPERIENCE DRY
WEATHER MONDAY AND TUESDAY. TEMPS WILL BE SEVERAL DEGREES BELOW
NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD AS COOLER AND DRIER CONTINENTAL AIR
FILTERS INTO ARKANSAS FROM THE NORTH. HIGHS SHOULD REMAIN FIRMLY IN
THE 80S...ROUGHLY AROUND 85 DEGREES ON AVERAGE. BY WEDNESDAY ANOTHER
DISTURBANCE WILL BE DIVING SOUTH THROUGH THE PLAINS TOWARDS
ARKANSAS...EMBEDDED IN THE NORTHWEST UPPER FLOW ACROSS THE CENTRAL
CONUS. THIS SHOULD BEGIN TO SPREAD PRECIPITATION INTO WESTERN
ARKANSAS SOMETIME EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING...WITH RAIN BECOMING
FAIRLY WIDESPREAD ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE STATE DURING THE
DAY. CLOUD COVER AND RAINFALL MAY HOLD TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 70S
TO AROUND 80 IN THE SOUTHWEST HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA ON
WEDNESDAY...BUT LIMITED IT TO THE LOW 80S ON THE COOL SIDE FOR THE
TIME BEING.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BATESVILLE AR     85  62  90  69 /   0   0   0   0
CAMDEN AR         92  68  94  71 /  10   0   0   0
HARRISON AR       86  64  91  70 /   0   0   0   0
HOT SPRINGS AR    90  66  93  70 /  10   0   0   0
LITTLE ROCK   AR  88  63  92  70 /  10   0   0   0
MONTICELLO AR     91  66  93  69 /  10   0   0   0
MOUNT IDA AR      91  67  93  71 /  10   0   0   0
MOUNTAIN HOME AR  85  62  91  69 /   0   0   0   0
NEWPORT AR        85  62  90  69 /   0   0   0   0
PINE BLUFF AR     90  64  92  70 /  10   0   0   0
RUSSELLVILLE AR   88  65  92  70 /  10   0   0   0
SEARCY AR         86  62  91  69 /  10   0   0   0
STUTTGART AR      88  63  92  70 /  10   0   0   0
&&

.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...56 / LONG TERM...64







000
FXUS64 KLZK 240841
AFDLZK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
340 AM CDT THU JUL 24 2014

.TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...
OVERALL...FAIRLY BENIGN WEATHER IS EXPECTED WITH LITTLE IF ANY
CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION UNTIL LATE IN THE PERIOD. WITH ALL MODELS IN
BASIC AGREEMENT THROUGH THE PERIOD...A BLEND OF FORECAST SOLUTIONS
WILL BE USED.

LATEST SURFACE ANALYSIS PLACES THE SURFACE BOUNDARY THAT BLASTED
THROUGH THE STATE YESTERDAY IS NOW LOCATED OVER THE SOUTHERN AND
SOUTHWEST PARTS OF THE STATE. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING DOWN FROM THE
NORTHERN PLAINS WILL PUSH THE BOUNDARY SLOWLY TO THE SOUTH WHERE IT
IS EXPECTED TO STALL OUT ALONG THE LOUISIANA BORDER. AIR MASS BEHIND
THE FRONT IS SLIGHTLY COOLER AND DRIER THAN THE ONE IT IS REPLACING
BUT NOT NEARLY TO THE EXTENT THAT WAS ENJOYED EARLY LAST WEEK.

UPPER PATTERN REMAINS HIGHLY AMPLIFIED AT THIS TIME WITH SPRAWLING
UPPER RIDGE EXTENDING FROM THE NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS TO THE DESERT
SOUTHWEST. SUBSEQUENT DOWNSTREAM TROFFING OVER THE EASTERN CONUS
WILL KEEP THE AREA IN NORTHWEST FLOW THROUGH TONIGHT.

MEANWHILE...A STRONG UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS STRADDLING
THE BRITISH COLUMBIA AND WASHINGTON BORDER. THIS SYSTEM WILL PIVOT
OFF TO THE NORTHEAST INTO CENTRAL CANADA BEFORE MOVING BACK INTO THE
UNITED STATES OVER NORTHERN MINNESOTA LATE SATURDAY.

SYSTEM WILL KNOCK DOWN THE RIDGE BRIEFLY AND ALLOW IT TO EXPAND TO
THE EAST AND INTO THE MID SOUTH. THIS EASTERN EXPANSION WILL
COINCIDE WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED BOUNDARY LIFTING BACK TO THE
NORTHEAST AS A WARM FRONT WITH WIDESPREAD 90S RETURNING FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY. MAV/MEX NUMBERS LOOK GOOD THROUGH THE PERIOD AND ARE
GENERALLY ACCEPTED.

AS THE PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED UPPER LOW MOVES BACK INTO THE UNITED
STATES LATE SATURDAY...ITS SURFACE REFLECTION WILL DRAG A COLD FRONT
INTO NORTHERN ARKANSAS SUNDAY AFTERNOON. THIS BOUNDARY WILL CONTINUE
TO MOVE SOUTHWARD...REACHING THE ARKANSAS/LOUISIANA BORDER BY THE
END OF THE PERIOD. FRONT DOES NOT APPEAR OVERLY DYNAMIC AT THIS TIME
WITH THE PARENT LOW SO FAR OFF TO THE NORTHEAST BUT WILL STILL NEED
TO CARRY SLIGHT CHANCE TO LOW END CHANCE POPS AS IT MOVES THROUGH.

&&

.LONG TERM...MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY
NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES MADE TO THE LONG TERM PERIOD. BY MONDAY THE
UPPER LEVEL PATTERN WILL BECOME HIGHLY AMPLIFIED...WITH A LARGE
RIDGE OVER THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST AND A LARGE UPPER TROUGH CARVING
OUT A HOME ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE CONTINENTAL UNITED STATES.
A COLD FRONT WILL HAVE PUSHED INTO FAR SOUTHERN ARKANSAS OR NRN
LOUISIANA BY MONDAY MORNING AND SHOULD REMAIN STALLED THERE THROUGH
THE PERIOD. SOME SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THE
SOUTH DURING THE DAY...BUT MOST OF THE STATE LOOKS TO EXPERIENCE DRY
WEATHER MONDAY AND TUESDAY. TEMPS WILL BE SEVERAL DEGREES BELOW
NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD AS COOLER AND DRIER CONTINENTAL AIR
FILTERS INTO ARKANSAS FROM THE NORTH. HIGHS SHOULD REMAIN FIRMLY IN
THE 80S...ROUGHLY AROUND 85 DEGREES ON AVERAGE. BY WEDNESDAY ANOTHER
DISTURBANCE WILL BE DIVING SOUTH THROUGH THE PLAINS TOWARDS
ARKANSAS...EMBEDDED IN THE NORTHWEST UPPER FLOW ACROSS THE CENTRAL
CONUS. THIS SHOULD BEGIN TO SPREAD PRECIPITATION INTO WESTERN
ARKANSAS SOMETIME EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING...WITH RAIN BECOMING
FAIRLY WIDESPREAD ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE STATE DURING THE
DAY. CLOUD COVER AND RAINFALL MAY HOLD TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 70S
TO AROUND 80 IN THE SOUTHWEST HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA ON
WEDNESDAY...BUT LIMITED IT TO THE LOW 80S ON THE COOL SIDE FOR THE
TIME BEING.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BATESVILLE AR     85  62  90  69 /   0   0   0   0
CAMDEN AR         92  68  94  71 /  10   0   0   0
HARRISON AR       86  64  91  70 /   0   0   0   0
HOT SPRINGS AR    90  66  93  70 /  10   0   0   0
LITTLE ROCK   AR  88  63  92  70 /  10   0   0   0
MONTICELLO AR     91  66  93  69 /  10   0   0   0
MOUNT IDA AR      91  67  93  71 /  10   0   0   0
MOUNTAIN HOME AR  85  62  91  69 /   0   0   0   0
NEWPORT AR        85  62  90  69 /   0   0   0   0
PINE BLUFF AR     90  64  92  70 /  10   0   0   0
RUSSELLVILLE AR   88  65  92  70 /  10   0   0   0
SEARCY AR         86  62  91  69 /  10   0   0   0
STUTTGART AR      88  63  92  70 /  10   0   0   0
&&

.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...56 / LONG TERM...64







000
FXUS64 KLZK 240841
AFDLZK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
340 AM CDT THU JUL 24 2014

.TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...
OVERALL...FAIRLY BENIGN WEATHER IS EXPECTED WITH LITTLE IF ANY
CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION UNTIL LATE IN THE PERIOD. WITH ALL MODELS IN
BASIC AGREEMENT THROUGH THE PERIOD...A BLEND OF FORECAST SOLUTIONS
WILL BE USED.

LATEST SURFACE ANALYSIS PLACES THE SURFACE BOUNDARY THAT BLASTED
THROUGH THE STATE YESTERDAY IS NOW LOCATED OVER THE SOUTHERN AND
SOUTHWEST PARTS OF THE STATE. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING DOWN FROM THE
NORTHERN PLAINS WILL PUSH THE BOUNDARY SLOWLY TO THE SOUTH WHERE IT
IS EXPECTED TO STALL OUT ALONG THE LOUISIANA BORDER. AIR MASS BEHIND
THE FRONT IS SLIGHTLY COOLER AND DRIER THAN THE ONE IT IS REPLACING
BUT NOT NEARLY TO THE EXTENT THAT WAS ENJOYED EARLY LAST WEEK.

UPPER PATTERN REMAINS HIGHLY AMPLIFIED AT THIS TIME WITH SPRAWLING
UPPER RIDGE EXTENDING FROM THE NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS TO THE DESERT
SOUTHWEST. SUBSEQUENT DOWNSTREAM TROFFING OVER THE EASTERN CONUS
WILL KEEP THE AREA IN NORTHWEST FLOW THROUGH TONIGHT.

MEANWHILE...A STRONG UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS STRADDLING
THE BRITISH COLUMBIA AND WASHINGTON BORDER. THIS SYSTEM WILL PIVOT
OFF TO THE NORTHEAST INTO CENTRAL CANADA BEFORE MOVING BACK INTO THE
UNITED STATES OVER NORTHERN MINNESOTA LATE SATURDAY.

SYSTEM WILL KNOCK DOWN THE RIDGE BRIEFLY AND ALLOW IT TO EXPAND TO
THE EAST AND INTO THE MID SOUTH. THIS EASTERN EXPANSION WILL
COINCIDE WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED BOUNDARY LIFTING BACK TO THE
NORTHEAST AS A WARM FRONT WITH WIDESPREAD 90S RETURNING FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY. MAV/MEX NUMBERS LOOK GOOD THROUGH THE PERIOD AND ARE
GENERALLY ACCEPTED.

AS THE PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED UPPER LOW MOVES BACK INTO THE UNITED
STATES LATE SATURDAY...ITS SURFACE REFLECTION WILL DRAG A COLD FRONT
INTO NORTHERN ARKANSAS SUNDAY AFTERNOON. THIS BOUNDARY WILL CONTINUE
TO MOVE SOUTHWARD...REACHING THE ARKANSAS/LOUISIANA BORDER BY THE
END OF THE PERIOD. FRONT DOES NOT APPEAR OVERLY DYNAMIC AT THIS TIME
WITH THE PARENT LOW SO FAR OFF TO THE NORTHEAST BUT WILL STILL NEED
TO CARRY SLIGHT CHANCE TO LOW END CHANCE POPS AS IT MOVES THROUGH.

&&

.LONG TERM...MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY
NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES MADE TO THE LONG TERM PERIOD. BY MONDAY THE
UPPER LEVEL PATTERN WILL BECOME HIGHLY AMPLIFIED...WITH A LARGE
RIDGE OVER THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST AND A LARGE UPPER TROUGH CARVING
OUT A HOME ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE CONTINENTAL UNITED STATES.
A COLD FRONT WILL HAVE PUSHED INTO FAR SOUTHERN ARKANSAS OR NRN
LOUISIANA BY MONDAY MORNING AND SHOULD REMAIN STALLED THERE THROUGH
THE PERIOD. SOME SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THE
SOUTH DURING THE DAY...BUT MOST OF THE STATE LOOKS TO EXPERIENCE DRY
WEATHER MONDAY AND TUESDAY. TEMPS WILL BE SEVERAL DEGREES BELOW
NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD AS COOLER AND DRIER CONTINENTAL AIR
FILTERS INTO ARKANSAS FROM THE NORTH. HIGHS SHOULD REMAIN FIRMLY IN
THE 80S...ROUGHLY AROUND 85 DEGREES ON AVERAGE. BY WEDNESDAY ANOTHER
DISTURBANCE WILL BE DIVING SOUTH THROUGH THE PLAINS TOWARDS
ARKANSAS...EMBEDDED IN THE NORTHWEST UPPER FLOW ACROSS THE CENTRAL
CONUS. THIS SHOULD BEGIN TO SPREAD PRECIPITATION INTO WESTERN
ARKANSAS SOMETIME EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING...WITH RAIN BECOMING
FAIRLY WIDESPREAD ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE STATE DURING THE
DAY. CLOUD COVER AND RAINFALL MAY HOLD TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 70S
TO AROUND 80 IN THE SOUTHWEST HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA ON
WEDNESDAY...BUT LIMITED IT TO THE LOW 80S ON THE COOL SIDE FOR THE
TIME BEING.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BATESVILLE AR     85  62  90  69 /   0   0   0   0
CAMDEN AR         92  68  94  71 /  10   0   0   0
HARRISON AR       86  64  91  70 /   0   0   0   0
HOT SPRINGS AR    90  66  93  70 /  10   0   0   0
LITTLE ROCK   AR  88  63  92  70 /  10   0   0   0
MONTICELLO AR     91  66  93  69 /  10   0   0   0
MOUNT IDA AR      91  67  93  71 /  10   0   0   0
MOUNTAIN HOME AR  85  62  91  69 /   0   0   0   0
NEWPORT AR        85  62  90  69 /   0   0   0   0
PINE BLUFF AR     90  64  92  70 /  10   0   0   0
RUSSELLVILLE AR   88  65  92  70 /  10   0   0   0
SEARCY AR         86  62  91  69 /  10   0   0   0
STUTTGART AR      88  63  92  70 /  10   0   0   0
&&

.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...56 / LONG TERM...64







000
FXUS64 KLZK 240841
AFDLZK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
340 AM CDT THU JUL 24 2014

.TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...
OVERALL...FAIRLY BENIGN WEATHER IS EXPECTED WITH LITTLE IF ANY
CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION UNTIL LATE IN THE PERIOD. WITH ALL MODELS IN
BASIC AGREEMENT THROUGH THE PERIOD...A BLEND OF FORECAST SOLUTIONS
WILL BE USED.

LATEST SURFACE ANALYSIS PLACES THE SURFACE BOUNDARY THAT BLASTED
THROUGH THE STATE YESTERDAY IS NOW LOCATED OVER THE SOUTHERN AND
SOUTHWEST PARTS OF THE STATE. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING DOWN FROM THE
NORTHERN PLAINS WILL PUSH THE BOUNDARY SLOWLY TO THE SOUTH WHERE IT
IS EXPECTED TO STALL OUT ALONG THE LOUISIANA BORDER. AIR MASS BEHIND
THE FRONT IS SLIGHTLY COOLER AND DRIER THAN THE ONE IT IS REPLACING
BUT NOT NEARLY TO THE EXTENT THAT WAS ENJOYED EARLY LAST WEEK.

UPPER PATTERN REMAINS HIGHLY AMPLIFIED AT THIS TIME WITH SPRAWLING
UPPER RIDGE EXTENDING FROM THE NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS TO THE DESERT
SOUTHWEST. SUBSEQUENT DOWNSTREAM TROFFING OVER THE EASTERN CONUS
WILL KEEP THE AREA IN NORTHWEST FLOW THROUGH TONIGHT.

MEANWHILE...A STRONG UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS STRADDLING
THE BRITISH COLUMBIA AND WASHINGTON BORDER. THIS SYSTEM WILL PIVOT
OFF TO THE NORTHEAST INTO CENTRAL CANADA BEFORE MOVING BACK INTO THE
UNITED STATES OVER NORTHERN MINNESOTA LATE SATURDAY.

SYSTEM WILL KNOCK DOWN THE RIDGE BRIEFLY AND ALLOW IT TO EXPAND TO
THE EAST AND INTO THE MID SOUTH. THIS EASTERN EXPANSION WILL
COINCIDE WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED BOUNDARY LIFTING BACK TO THE
NORTHEAST AS A WARM FRONT WITH WIDESPREAD 90S RETURNING FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY. MAV/MEX NUMBERS LOOK GOOD THROUGH THE PERIOD AND ARE
GENERALLY ACCEPTED.

AS THE PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED UPPER LOW MOVES BACK INTO THE UNITED
STATES LATE SATURDAY...ITS SURFACE REFLECTION WILL DRAG A COLD FRONT
INTO NORTHERN ARKANSAS SUNDAY AFTERNOON. THIS BOUNDARY WILL CONTINUE
TO MOVE SOUTHWARD...REACHING THE ARKANSAS/LOUISIANA BORDER BY THE
END OF THE PERIOD. FRONT DOES NOT APPEAR OVERLY DYNAMIC AT THIS TIME
WITH THE PARENT LOW SO FAR OFF TO THE NORTHEAST BUT WILL STILL NEED
TO CARRY SLIGHT CHANCE TO LOW END CHANCE POPS AS IT MOVES THROUGH.

&&

.LONG TERM...MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY
NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES MADE TO THE LONG TERM PERIOD. BY MONDAY THE
UPPER LEVEL PATTERN WILL BECOME HIGHLY AMPLIFIED...WITH A LARGE
RIDGE OVER THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST AND A LARGE UPPER TROUGH CARVING
OUT A HOME ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE CONTINENTAL UNITED STATES.
A COLD FRONT WILL HAVE PUSHED INTO FAR SOUTHERN ARKANSAS OR NRN
LOUISIANA BY MONDAY MORNING AND SHOULD REMAIN STALLED THERE THROUGH
THE PERIOD. SOME SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THE
SOUTH DURING THE DAY...BUT MOST OF THE STATE LOOKS TO EXPERIENCE DRY
WEATHER MONDAY AND TUESDAY. TEMPS WILL BE SEVERAL DEGREES BELOW
NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD AS COOLER AND DRIER CONTINENTAL AIR
FILTERS INTO ARKANSAS FROM THE NORTH. HIGHS SHOULD REMAIN FIRMLY IN
THE 80S...ROUGHLY AROUND 85 DEGREES ON AVERAGE. BY WEDNESDAY ANOTHER
DISTURBANCE WILL BE DIVING SOUTH THROUGH THE PLAINS TOWARDS
ARKANSAS...EMBEDDED IN THE NORTHWEST UPPER FLOW ACROSS THE CENTRAL
CONUS. THIS SHOULD BEGIN TO SPREAD PRECIPITATION INTO WESTERN
ARKANSAS SOMETIME EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING...WITH RAIN BECOMING
FAIRLY WIDESPREAD ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE STATE DURING THE
DAY. CLOUD COVER AND RAINFALL MAY HOLD TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 70S
TO AROUND 80 IN THE SOUTHWEST HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA ON
WEDNESDAY...BUT LIMITED IT TO THE LOW 80S ON THE COOL SIDE FOR THE
TIME BEING.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BATESVILLE AR     85  62  90  69 /   0   0   0   0
CAMDEN AR         92  68  94  71 /  10   0   0   0
HARRISON AR       86  64  91  70 /   0   0   0   0
HOT SPRINGS AR    90  66  93  70 /  10   0   0   0
LITTLE ROCK   AR  88  63  92  70 /  10   0   0   0
MONTICELLO AR     91  66  93  69 /  10   0   0   0
MOUNT IDA AR      91  67  93  71 /  10   0   0   0
MOUNTAIN HOME AR  85  62  91  69 /   0   0   0   0
NEWPORT AR        85  62  90  69 /   0   0   0   0
PINE BLUFF AR     90  64  92  70 /  10   0   0   0
RUSSELLVILLE AR   88  65  92  70 /  10   0   0   0
SEARCY AR         86  62  91  69 /  10   0   0   0
STUTTGART AR      88  63  92  70 /  10   0   0   0
&&

.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...56 / LONG TERM...64







000
FXUS64 KLZK 240610 AAA
AFDLZK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
110 AM CDT THU JUL 24 2014

.DISCUSSION...

UPDATED FOR THE 06Z AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

&&

.AVIATION...

FOG WILL LIKELY BE AN ISSUE AT MANY SITES THROUGH DAYBREAK...WITH
SOME AREAS ALREADY SHOWING VSBY BELOW 1SM AS OF 06Z. HAVE AT LEAST
SOME 3SM IN AT ALL SITES...WITH SOME 1/2SM AND LIFR CIGS MENTIONED
AT SITES ALREADY SHOWING SIGNS OF BECOMING ENTRENCHED IN FOG.
OTHERWISE...FOG WILL BURN OFF WITHIN A COUPLE HOURS OF SUNRISE AND
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AFTERWARD FOR ALL TERMINALS. WINDS
WILL GRADUALLY VEER TO THE EAST DURING THE PERIOD.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1010 PM CDT WED JUL 23 2014/

UPDATE...

JUST A FEW RETURNS ON RADAR NOTED ACRS THE SRN PART OF THE FA ATTM...
WITH PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES NOTED ELSEWHERE. CDFNT WL SLOLY
DRIFT SWD THRU MUCH OF THE FA OVERNIGHT AND INTO THU MRNG. ADDED
PTCHY FOG TO THE FCST THRU THE EARLY MRNG HRS. SLGT ADJUSTMENTS TO
OVERNIGHT LOW TEMPS BASED ON CURRENT TRENDS. HRLY TEMPS WERE
UPDATED ACCORDINGLY TO REFLECT THESE CHGS. REST OF FCST IN GOOD
SHAPE. ALL UPDATES HAVE BEEN SENT. /44/

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 228 PM CDT WED JUL 23 2014/

SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT
HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES OVER THE WESTERN U.S. WITH A TROUGH OF LOW
PRESSURE OVER THE EASTERN U.S. THIS PATTERN WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
THE SHORT TERM PERIOD.

A COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE THROUGH ARKANSAS THIS AFTERNOON
AND EVENING. SOME OF THE STORMS COULD BE SEVERE WITH LARGE HAIL AND
DAMAGING WINDS. SOME OF THE STORMS COULD MOVE SLOWLY AND PRODUCE
HEAVY RAIN AND UP TO 2 TO 3 INCHES OF RAINFALL. EXPECT PRECIPITATION
TO DIMINISH THIS EVENING.

DRIER AIR WILL BE USHERED INTO THE STATE BEHIND THE FRONT. NO RAIN
IS EXPECTED FOR THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY. A SHORT WAVE WILL MOVE
INTO NORTHWEST ARKANSAS LATE SATURDAY. THIS WILL BRING A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE NORTH. THURSDAY WILL BE A
BIT COOLER...THEN A WARMING TREND WILL BEGIN FRIDAY AND SATURDAY AS
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO WESTERN ARKANSAS BRIEFLY.

LONG TERM...SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY

SUNDAYS COLD FRONT IS LOOKING EVEN LESS IMPRESSIVE...QPF WISE...THAN
IT DID THIS TIME YESTERDAY AND LOWERED POPS ACCORDINGLY. HOWEVER...
NORTHWEST FLOW FOLLOWING FROPA WILL PROVIDE ANOTHER COOL DOWN TO
LINGER THROUGH THE FIRST FEW DAYS OF THE WORK WEEK. ADDED SOME
SLIGHT POPS TOWARDS THE END OF THE PERIOD AS THE UPPER LEVEL
PATTERN AMPLIFIES AND THE NEXT SYSTEM BUILDS OVER THE OK/TX
PANHANDLES.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BATESVILLE AR     85  60  90  70 /  10   0  10  10
CAMDEN AR         91  68  94  72 /  10   0  10  10
HARRISON AR       86  63  91  71 /  10   0  10  10
HOT SPRINGS AR    90  67  93  71 /  10   0  10  10
LITTLE ROCK   AR  88  62  92  71 /  10   0  10  10
MONTICELLO AR     90  66  94  70 /  10   0  10  10
MOUNT IDA AR      90  66  93  72 /  10   0  10  10
MOUNTAIN HOME AR  87  61  91  70 /  10   0  10  10
NEWPORT AR        84  59  90  70 /  10   0  10  10
PINE BLUFF AR     85  64  93  71 /  10   0  10  10
RUSSELLVILLE AR   91  66  92  71 /  10   0  10  10
SEARCY AR         85  62  91  70 /  10   0  10  10
STUTTGART AR      83  61  92  71 /  10   0  10  10
&&

.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&

$$


AVIATION...64





000
FXUS64 KLZK 240310
AFDLZK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
1010 PM CDT WED JUL 23 2014

.UPDATE...

JUST A FEW RETURNS ON RADAR NOTED ACRS THE SRN PART OF THE FA ATTM...
WITH PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES NOTED ELSEWHERE. CDFNT WL SLOLY
DRIFT SWD THRU MUCH OF THE FA OVERNIGHT AND INTO THU MRNG. ADDED
PTCHY FOG TO THE FCST THRU THE EARLY MRNG HRS. SLGT ADJUSTMENTS TO
OVERNIGHT LOW TEMPS BASED ON CURRENT TRENDS. HRLY TEMPS WERE
UPDATED ACCORDINGLY TO REFLECT THESE CHGS. REST OF FCST IN GOOD
SHAPE. ALL UPDATES HAVE BEEN SENT. /44/
&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 701 PM CDT WED JUL 23 2014/

AVIATION...

A STRONG LINE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MOVED THROUGH THIS
STATE THIS AFTERNOON. CURRENT CONDITIONS SHOW THE LINE OF
THUNDERSTORMS WILL IMPACT KLLQ WITHIN THE NEXT HOUR. THE LEADING
EDGE OF THESE STORMS HAVE PRODUCED WINDS IN EXCESS OF 40-50KTS.

ACROSS THE NORTH CLOUDS WILL GRADUALLY CLEAR THIS EVENING...WITH
CLEARING SPREADING SOUTH. SOME MODELS WERE SUGGESTING SOME LIGHT
PATCHY FOG MAY DEVELOP DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...HOWEVER WINDS
ARE FORECAST TO REMAIN ELEVATED ENOUGH THAT DENSE FOG SHOULD NOT
BE AN ISSUE.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 228 PM CDT WED JUL 23 2014/

SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT
HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES OVER THE WESTERN U.S. WITH A TROUGH OF LOW
PRESSURE OVER THE EASTERN U.S. THIS PATTERN WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
THE SHORT TERM PERIOD.

A COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE THROUGH ARKANSAS THIS AFTERNOON
AND EVENING. SOME OF THE STORMS COULD BE SEVERE WITH LARGE HAIL AND
DAMAGING WINDS. SOME OF THE STORMS COULD MOVE SLOWLY AND PRODUCE
HEAVY RAIN AND UP TO 2 TO 3 INCHES OF RAINFALL. EXPECT PRECIPITATION
TO DIMINISH THIS EVENING.

DRIER AIR WILL BE USHERED INTO THE STATE BEHIND THE FRONT. NO RAIN
IS EXPECTED FOR THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY. A SHORT WAVE WILL MOVE
INTO NORTHWEST ARKANSAS LATE SATURDAY. THIS WILL BRING A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE NORTH. THURSDAY WILL BE A
BIT COOLER...THEN A WARMING TREND WILL BEGIN FRIDAY AND SATURDAY AS
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO WESTERN ARKANSAS BRIEFLY.

LONG TERM...SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY

SUNDAYS COLD FRONT IS LOOKING EVEN LESS IMPRESSIVE...QPF WISE...THAN
IT DID THIS TIME YESTERDAY AND LOWERED POPS ACCORDINGLY. HOWEVER...
NORTHWEST FLOW FOLLOWING FROPA WILL PROVIDE ANOTHER COOL DOWN TO
LINGER THROUGH THE FIRST FEW DAYS OF THE WORK WEEK. ADDED SOME
SLIGHT POPS TOWARDS THE END OF THE PERIOD AS THE UPPER LEVEL
PATTERN AMPLIFIES AND THE NEXT SYSTEM BUILDS OVER THE OK/TX
PANHANDLES.
&&

.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&

$$





000
FXUS64 KLZK 240310
AFDLZK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
1010 PM CDT WED JUL 23 2014

.UPDATE...

JUST A FEW RETURNS ON RADAR NOTED ACRS THE SRN PART OF THE FA ATTM...
WITH PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES NOTED ELSEWHERE. CDFNT WL SLOLY
DRIFT SWD THRU MUCH OF THE FA OVERNIGHT AND INTO THU MRNG. ADDED
PTCHY FOG TO THE FCST THRU THE EARLY MRNG HRS. SLGT ADJUSTMENTS TO
OVERNIGHT LOW TEMPS BASED ON CURRENT TRENDS. HRLY TEMPS WERE
UPDATED ACCORDINGLY TO REFLECT THESE CHGS. REST OF FCST IN GOOD
SHAPE. ALL UPDATES HAVE BEEN SENT. /44/
&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 701 PM CDT WED JUL 23 2014/

AVIATION...

A STRONG LINE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MOVED THROUGH THIS
STATE THIS AFTERNOON. CURRENT CONDITIONS SHOW THE LINE OF
THUNDERSTORMS WILL IMPACT KLLQ WITHIN THE NEXT HOUR. THE LEADING
EDGE OF THESE STORMS HAVE PRODUCED WINDS IN EXCESS OF 40-50KTS.

ACROSS THE NORTH CLOUDS WILL GRADUALLY CLEAR THIS EVENING...WITH
CLEARING SPREADING SOUTH. SOME MODELS WERE SUGGESTING SOME LIGHT
PATCHY FOG MAY DEVELOP DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...HOWEVER WINDS
ARE FORECAST TO REMAIN ELEVATED ENOUGH THAT DENSE FOG SHOULD NOT
BE AN ISSUE.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 228 PM CDT WED JUL 23 2014/

SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT
HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES OVER THE WESTERN U.S. WITH A TROUGH OF LOW
PRESSURE OVER THE EASTERN U.S. THIS PATTERN WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
THE SHORT TERM PERIOD.

A COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE THROUGH ARKANSAS THIS AFTERNOON
AND EVENING. SOME OF THE STORMS COULD BE SEVERE WITH LARGE HAIL AND
DAMAGING WINDS. SOME OF THE STORMS COULD MOVE SLOWLY AND PRODUCE
HEAVY RAIN AND UP TO 2 TO 3 INCHES OF RAINFALL. EXPECT PRECIPITATION
TO DIMINISH THIS EVENING.

DRIER AIR WILL BE USHERED INTO THE STATE BEHIND THE FRONT. NO RAIN
IS EXPECTED FOR THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY. A SHORT WAVE WILL MOVE
INTO NORTHWEST ARKANSAS LATE SATURDAY. THIS WILL BRING A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE NORTH. THURSDAY WILL BE A
BIT COOLER...THEN A WARMING TREND WILL BEGIN FRIDAY AND SATURDAY AS
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO WESTERN ARKANSAS BRIEFLY.

LONG TERM...SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY

SUNDAYS COLD FRONT IS LOOKING EVEN LESS IMPRESSIVE...QPF WISE...THAN
IT DID THIS TIME YESTERDAY AND LOWERED POPS ACCORDINGLY. HOWEVER...
NORTHWEST FLOW FOLLOWING FROPA WILL PROVIDE ANOTHER COOL DOWN TO
LINGER THROUGH THE FIRST FEW DAYS OF THE WORK WEEK. ADDED SOME
SLIGHT POPS TOWARDS THE END OF THE PERIOD AS THE UPPER LEVEL
PATTERN AMPLIFIES AND THE NEXT SYSTEM BUILDS OVER THE OK/TX
PANHANDLES.
&&

.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&

$$






000
FXUS64 KLZK 240001
AFDLZK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
701 PM CDT WED JUL 23 2014

.AVIATION...

A STRONG LINE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MOVED THROUGH THIS
STATE THIS AFTERNOON. CURRENT CONDITIONS SHOW THE LINE OF
THUNDERSTORMS WILL IMPACT KLLQ WITHIN THE NEXT HOUR. THE LEADING
EDGE OF THESE STORMS HAVE PRODUCED WINDS IN EXCESS OF 40-50KTS.

ACROSS THE NORTH CLOUDS WILL GRADUALLY CLEAR THIS EVENING...WITH
CLEARING SPREADING SOUTH. SOME MODELS WERE SUGGESTING SOME LIGHT
PATCHY FOG MAY DEVELOP DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...HOWEVER WINDS
ARE FORECAST TO REMAIN ELEVATED ENOUGH THAT DENSE FOG SHOULD NOT
BE AN ISSUE.




&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 228 PM CDT WED JUL 23 2014/

SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT
HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES OVER THE WESTERN U.S. WITH A TROUGH OF LOW
PRESSURE OVER THE EASTERN U.S. THIS PATTERN WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
THE SHORT TERM PERIOD.

A COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE THROUGH ARKANSAS THIS AFTERNOON
AND EVENING. SOME OF THE STORMS COULD BE SEVERE WITH LARGE HAIL AND
DAMAGING WINDS. SOME OF THE STORMS COULD MOVE SLOWLY AND PRODUCE
HEAVY RAIN AND UP TO 2 TO 3 INCHES OF RAINFALL. EXPECT PRECIPITATION
TO DIMINISH THIS EVENING.

DRIER AIR WILL BE USHERED INTO THE STATE BEHIND THE FRONT. NO RAIN
IS EXPECTED FOR THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY. A SHORT WAVE WILL MOVE
INTO NORTHWEST ARKANSAS LATE SATURDAY. THIS WILL BRING A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE NORTH. THURSDAY WILL BE A
BIT COOLER...THEN A WARMING TREND WILL BEGIN FRIDAY AND SATURDAY AS
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO WESTERN ARKANSAS BRIEFLY.

LONG TERM...SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY

SUNDAYS COLD FRONT IS LOOKING EVEN LESS IMPRESSIVE...QPF WISE...THAN
IT DID THIS TIME YESTERDAY AND LOWERED POPS ACCORDINGLY.
HOWEVER...NORTHWEST FLOW FOLLOWING FROPA WILL PROVIDE ANOTHER COOL
DOWN TO LINGER THROUGH THE FIRST FEW DAYS OF THE WORK WEEK. ADDED
SOME SLIGHT POPS TOWARDS THE END OF THE PERIOD AS THE UPPER LEVEL
PATTERN AMPLIFIES AND THE NEXT SYSTEM BUILDS OVER THE OK/TX
PANHANDLES.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BATESVILLE AR     66  85  60  90 /  30  10   0  10
CAMDEN AR         71  91  68  94 /  40  10   0  10
HARRISON AR       66  86  63  91 /  10  10   0  10
HOT SPRINGS AR    72  90  67  93 /  50  10   0  10
LITTLE ROCK   AR  72  88  62  92 /  50  10   0  10
MONTICELLO AR     72  90  66  94 /  30  10   0  10
MOUNT IDA AR      70  90  66  93 /  40  10   0  10
MOUNTAIN HOME AR  66  87  61  91 /  20  10   0  10
NEWPORT AR        64  84  59  90 /  30  10   0  10
PINE BLUFF AR     72  85  64  93 /  40  10   0  10
RUSSELLVILLE AR   72  91  66  92 /  30  10   0  10
SEARCY AR         71  85  62  91 /  40  10   0  10
STUTTGART AR      71  83  61  92 /  40  10   0  10
&&

.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&

$$


AVIATION...225






000
FXUS64 KLZK 240001
AFDLZK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
701 PM CDT WED JUL 23 2014

.AVIATION...

A STRONG LINE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MOVED THROUGH THIS
STATE THIS AFTERNOON. CURRENT CONDITIONS SHOW THE LINE OF
THUNDERSTORMS WILL IMPACT KLLQ WITHIN THE NEXT HOUR. THE LEADING
EDGE OF THESE STORMS HAVE PRODUCED WINDS IN EXCESS OF 40-50KTS.

ACROSS THE NORTH CLOUDS WILL GRADUALLY CLEAR THIS EVENING...WITH
CLEARING SPREADING SOUTH. SOME MODELS WERE SUGGESTING SOME LIGHT
PATCHY FOG MAY DEVELOP DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...HOWEVER WINDS
ARE FORECAST TO REMAIN ELEVATED ENOUGH THAT DENSE FOG SHOULD NOT
BE AN ISSUE.




&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 228 PM CDT WED JUL 23 2014/

SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT
HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES OVER THE WESTERN U.S. WITH A TROUGH OF LOW
PRESSURE OVER THE EASTERN U.S. THIS PATTERN WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
THE SHORT TERM PERIOD.

A COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE THROUGH ARKANSAS THIS AFTERNOON
AND EVENING. SOME OF THE STORMS COULD BE SEVERE WITH LARGE HAIL AND
DAMAGING WINDS. SOME OF THE STORMS COULD MOVE SLOWLY AND PRODUCE
HEAVY RAIN AND UP TO 2 TO 3 INCHES OF RAINFALL. EXPECT PRECIPITATION
TO DIMINISH THIS EVENING.

DRIER AIR WILL BE USHERED INTO THE STATE BEHIND THE FRONT. NO RAIN
IS EXPECTED FOR THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY. A SHORT WAVE WILL MOVE
INTO NORTHWEST ARKANSAS LATE SATURDAY. THIS WILL BRING A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE NORTH. THURSDAY WILL BE A
BIT COOLER...THEN A WARMING TREND WILL BEGIN FRIDAY AND SATURDAY AS
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO WESTERN ARKANSAS BRIEFLY.

LONG TERM...SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY

SUNDAYS COLD FRONT IS LOOKING EVEN LESS IMPRESSIVE...QPF WISE...THAN
IT DID THIS TIME YESTERDAY AND LOWERED POPS ACCORDINGLY.
HOWEVER...NORTHWEST FLOW FOLLOWING FROPA WILL PROVIDE ANOTHER COOL
DOWN TO LINGER THROUGH THE FIRST FEW DAYS OF THE WORK WEEK. ADDED
SOME SLIGHT POPS TOWARDS THE END OF THE PERIOD AS THE UPPER LEVEL
PATTERN AMPLIFIES AND THE NEXT SYSTEM BUILDS OVER THE OK/TX
PANHANDLES.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BATESVILLE AR     66  85  60  90 /  30  10   0  10
CAMDEN AR         71  91  68  94 /  40  10   0  10
HARRISON AR       66  86  63  91 /  10  10   0  10
HOT SPRINGS AR    72  90  67  93 /  50  10   0  10
LITTLE ROCK   AR  72  88  62  92 /  50  10   0  10
MONTICELLO AR     72  90  66  94 /  30  10   0  10
MOUNT IDA AR      70  90  66  93 /  40  10   0  10
MOUNTAIN HOME AR  66  87  61  91 /  20  10   0  10
NEWPORT AR        64  84  59  90 /  30  10   0  10
PINE BLUFF AR     72  85  64  93 /  40  10   0  10
RUSSELLVILLE AR   72  91  66  92 /  30  10   0  10
SEARCY AR         71  85  62  91 /  40  10   0  10
STUTTGART AR      71  83  61  92 /  40  10   0  10
&&

.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&

$$


AVIATION...225







000
FXUS64 KLZK 231928
AFDLZK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
228 PM CDT WED JUL 23 2014

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT
HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES OVER THE WESTERN U.S. WITH A TROUGH OF LOW
PRESSURE OVER THE EASTERN U.S. THIS PATTERN WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
THE SHORT TERM PERIOD.

A COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE THROUGH ARKANSAS THIS AFTERNOON
AND EVENING. SOME OF THE STORMS COULD BE SEVERE WITH LARGE HAIL AND
DAMAGING WINDS. SOME OF THE STORMS COULD MOVE SLOWLY AND PRODUCE
HEAVY RAIN AND UP TO 2 TO 3 INCHES OF RAINFALL. EXPECT PRECIPITATION
TO DIMINISH THIS EVENING.

DRIER AIR WILL BE USHERED INTO THE STATE BEHIND THE FRONT. NO RAIN
IS EXPECTED FOR THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY. A SHORT WAVE WILL MOVE
INTO NORTHWEST ARKANSAS LATE SATURDAY. THIS WILL BRING A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE NORTH. THURSDAY WILL BE A
BIT COOLER...THEN A WARMING TREND WILL BEGIN FRIDAY AND SATURDAY AS
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO WESTERN ARKANSAS BRIEFLY.

&&

.LONG TERM...SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY

SUNDAYS COLD FRONT IS LOOKING EVEN LESS IMPRESSIVE...QPF WISE...THAN
IT DID THIS TIME YESTERDAY AND LOWERED POPS ACCORDINGLY.
HOWEVER...NORTHWEST FLOW FOLLOWING FROPA WILL PROVIDE ANOTHER COOL
DOWN TO LINGER THROUGH THE FIRST FEW DAYS OF THE WORK WEEK. ADDED
SOME SLIGHT POPS TOWARDS THE END OF THE PERIOD AS THE UPPER LEVEL
PATTERN AMPLIFIES AND THE NEXT SYSTEM BUILDS OVER THE OK/TX
PANHANDLES.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BATESVILLE AR     67  84  62  89 /  30  10  10  10
CAMDEN AR         72  92  66  93 /  40  10  10  10
HARRISON AR       65  85  63  90 /  20  10  10  10
HOT SPRINGS AR    71  91  66  92 /  40  10  10  10
LITTLE ROCK   AR  71  88  65  91 /  30  10  10  10
MONTICELLO AR     71  91  65  93 /  40  10  10  10
MOUNT IDA AR      71  91  66  92 /  40  10  10  10
MOUNTAIN HOME AR  65  85  62  90 /  20  10  10  10
NEWPORT AR        68  84  62  89 /  30  10  10  10
PINE BLUFF AR     71  90  65  92 /  40  10  10  10
RUSSELLVILLE AR   70  88  65  91 /  20  10  10  10
SEARCY AR         69  86  63  90 /  30  10  10  10
STUTTGART AR      71  87  64  91 /  40  10  10  10
&&

.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...51 / LONG TERM...61






000
FXUS64 KLZK 231928
AFDLZK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
228 PM CDT WED JUL 23 2014

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT
HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES OVER THE WESTERN U.S. WITH A TROUGH OF LOW
PRESSURE OVER THE EASTERN U.S. THIS PATTERN WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
THE SHORT TERM PERIOD.

A COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE THROUGH ARKANSAS THIS AFTERNOON
AND EVENING. SOME OF THE STORMS COULD BE SEVERE WITH LARGE HAIL AND
DAMAGING WINDS. SOME OF THE STORMS COULD MOVE SLOWLY AND PRODUCE
HEAVY RAIN AND UP TO 2 TO 3 INCHES OF RAINFALL. EXPECT PRECIPITATION
TO DIMINISH THIS EVENING.

DRIER AIR WILL BE USHERED INTO THE STATE BEHIND THE FRONT. NO RAIN
IS EXPECTED FOR THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY. A SHORT WAVE WILL MOVE
INTO NORTHWEST ARKANSAS LATE SATURDAY. THIS WILL BRING A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE NORTH. THURSDAY WILL BE A
BIT COOLER...THEN A WARMING TREND WILL BEGIN FRIDAY AND SATURDAY AS
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO WESTERN ARKANSAS BRIEFLY.

&&

.LONG TERM...SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY

SUNDAYS COLD FRONT IS LOOKING EVEN LESS IMPRESSIVE...QPF WISE...THAN
IT DID THIS TIME YESTERDAY AND LOWERED POPS ACCORDINGLY.
HOWEVER...NORTHWEST FLOW FOLLOWING FROPA WILL PROVIDE ANOTHER COOL
DOWN TO LINGER THROUGH THE FIRST FEW DAYS OF THE WORK WEEK. ADDED
SOME SLIGHT POPS TOWARDS THE END OF THE PERIOD AS THE UPPER LEVEL
PATTERN AMPLIFIES AND THE NEXT SYSTEM BUILDS OVER THE OK/TX
PANHANDLES.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BATESVILLE AR     67  84  62  89 /  30  10  10  10
CAMDEN AR         72  92  66  93 /  40  10  10  10
HARRISON AR       65  85  63  90 /  20  10  10  10
HOT SPRINGS AR    71  91  66  92 /  40  10  10  10
LITTLE ROCK   AR  71  88  65  91 /  30  10  10  10
MONTICELLO AR     71  91  65  93 /  40  10  10  10
MOUNT IDA AR      71  91  66  92 /  40  10  10  10
MOUNTAIN HOME AR  65  85  62  90 /  20  10  10  10
NEWPORT AR        68  84  62  89 /  30  10  10  10
PINE BLUFF AR     71  90  65  92 /  40  10  10  10
RUSSELLVILLE AR   70  88  65  91 /  20  10  10  10
SEARCY AR         69  86  63  90 /  30  10  10  10
STUTTGART AR      71  87  64  91 /  40  10  10  10
&&

.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...51 / LONG TERM...61






000
FXUS64 KLZK 231928
AFDLZK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
228 PM CDT WED JUL 23 2014

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT
HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES OVER THE WESTERN U.S. WITH A TROUGH OF LOW
PRESSURE OVER THE EASTERN U.S. THIS PATTERN WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
THE SHORT TERM PERIOD.

A COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE THROUGH ARKANSAS THIS AFTERNOON
AND EVENING. SOME OF THE STORMS COULD BE SEVERE WITH LARGE HAIL AND
DAMAGING WINDS. SOME OF THE STORMS COULD MOVE SLOWLY AND PRODUCE
HEAVY RAIN AND UP TO 2 TO 3 INCHES OF RAINFALL. EXPECT PRECIPITATION
TO DIMINISH THIS EVENING.

DRIER AIR WILL BE USHERED INTO THE STATE BEHIND THE FRONT. NO RAIN
IS EXPECTED FOR THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY. A SHORT WAVE WILL MOVE
INTO NORTHWEST ARKANSAS LATE SATURDAY. THIS WILL BRING A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE NORTH. THURSDAY WILL BE A
BIT COOLER...THEN A WARMING TREND WILL BEGIN FRIDAY AND SATURDAY AS
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO WESTERN ARKANSAS BRIEFLY.

&&

.LONG TERM...SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY

SUNDAYS COLD FRONT IS LOOKING EVEN LESS IMPRESSIVE...QPF WISE...THAN
IT DID THIS TIME YESTERDAY AND LOWERED POPS ACCORDINGLY.
HOWEVER...NORTHWEST FLOW FOLLOWING FROPA WILL PROVIDE ANOTHER COOL
DOWN TO LINGER THROUGH THE FIRST FEW DAYS OF THE WORK WEEK. ADDED
SOME SLIGHT POPS TOWARDS THE END OF THE PERIOD AS THE UPPER LEVEL
PATTERN AMPLIFIES AND THE NEXT SYSTEM BUILDS OVER THE OK/TX
PANHANDLES.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BATESVILLE AR     67  84  62  89 /  30  10  10  10
CAMDEN AR         72  92  66  93 /  40  10  10  10
HARRISON AR       65  85  63  90 /  20  10  10  10
HOT SPRINGS AR    71  91  66  92 /  40  10  10  10
LITTLE ROCK   AR  71  88  65  91 /  30  10  10  10
MONTICELLO AR     71  91  65  93 /  40  10  10  10
MOUNT IDA AR      71  91  66  92 /  40  10  10  10
MOUNTAIN HOME AR  65  85  62  90 /  20  10  10  10
NEWPORT AR        68  84  62  89 /  30  10  10  10
PINE BLUFF AR     71  90  65  92 /  40  10  10  10
RUSSELLVILLE AR   70  88  65  91 /  20  10  10  10
SEARCY AR         69  86  63  90 /  30  10  10  10
STUTTGART AR      71  87  64  91 /  40  10  10  10
&&

.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...51 / LONG TERM...61






000
FXUS64 KLZK 231928
AFDLZK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
228 PM CDT WED JUL 23 2014

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT
HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES OVER THE WESTERN U.S. WITH A TROUGH OF LOW
PRESSURE OVER THE EASTERN U.S. THIS PATTERN WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
THE SHORT TERM PERIOD.

A COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE THROUGH ARKANSAS THIS AFTERNOON
AND EVENING. SOME OF THE STORMS COULD BE SEVERE WITH LARGE HAIL AND
DAMAGING WINDS. SOME OF THE STORMS COULD MOVE SLOWLY AND PRODUCE
HEAVY RAIN AND UP TO 2 TO 3 INCHES OF RAINFALL. EXPECT PRECIPITATION
TO DIMINISH THIS EVENING.

DRIER AIR WILL BE USHERED INTO THE STATE BEHIND THE FRONT. NO RAIN
IS EXPECTED FOR THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY. A SHORT WAVE WILL MOVE
INTO NORTHWEST ARKANSAS LATE SATURDAY. THIS WILL BRING A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE NORTH. THURSDAY WILL BE A
BIT COOLER...THEN A WARMING TREND WILL BEGIN FRIDAY AND SATURDAY AS
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO WESTERN ARKANSAS BRIEFLY.

&&

.LONG TERM...SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY

SUNDAYS COLD FRONT IS LOOKING EVEN LESS IMPRESSIVE...QPF WISE...THAN
IT DID THIS TIME YESTERDAY AND LOWERED POPS ACCORDINGLY.
HOWEVER...NORTHWEST FLOW FOLLOWING FROPA WILL PROVIDE ANOTHER COOL
DOWN TO LINGER THROUGH THE FIRST FEW DAYS OF THE WORK WEEK. ADDED
SOME SLIGHT POPS TOWARDS THE END OF THE PERIOD AS THE UPPER LEVEL
PATTERN AMPLIFIES AND THE NEXT SYSTEM BUILDS OVER THE OK/TX
PANHANDLES.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BATESVILLE AR     67  84  62  89 /  30  10  10  10
CAMDEN AR         72  92  66  93 /  40  10  10  10
HARRISON AR       65  85  63  90 /  20  10  10  10
HOT SPRINGS AR    71  91  66  92 /  40  10  10  10
LITTLE ROCK   AR  71  88  65  91 /  30  10  10  10
MONTICELLO AR     71  91  65  93 /  40  10  10  10
MOUNT IDA AR      71  91  66  92 /  40  10  10  10
MOUNTAIN HOME AR  65  85  62  90 /  20  10  10  10
NEWPORT AR        68  84  62  89 /  30  10  10  10
PINE BLUFF AR     71  90  65  92 /  40  10  10  10
RUSSELLVILLE AR   70  88  65  91 /  20  10  10  10
SEARCY AR         69  86  63  90 /  30  10  10  10
STUTTGART AR      71  87  64  91 /  40  10  10  10
&&

.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...51 / LONG TERM...61






000
FXUS64 KLZK 231735
AFDLZK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
1235 PM CDT WED JUL 23 2014

.AVIATION...
CONVECTION SHOULD BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD THROUGHOUT THE AFTERNOON
AND EARLY EVENING HOURS OUT AHEAD OF THE WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY
DRAPED ACROSS SOUTHERN MO. ISOLATED STRONGER STORMS CANNOT BE
RULED OUT...WITH GUSTY WINDS AS THE MAIN THREAT. SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD PASS ON THROUGH...TAPERING OFF SOON AFTER 00Z
ACROSS NORTHERN TERMINALS THEN SOUTHERN TERMINALS A FEW HOURS LATER.
BESIDES SOME PATCHY BR FOR A FEW HOURS EARLY ON THURSDAY...ALL
TERMINALS SHOULD BE VFR BY THE END OF THE PERIOD.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1038 AM CDT WED JUL 23 2014/

UPDATE...
A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO NORTH ARKANSAS LATE THIS MORNING
AND PUSH SOUTH THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. A FEW SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE MOVING THROUGH CENTRAL ARKANSAS AT THIS TIME BUT
CHANCES WILL INCREASE AS WE GO THROUGH THE DAY. INCREASED POPS AND
CLOUD COVER ACROSS THE AREA AS WE HEAD INTO THE AFTERNOON. EXPECT
THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE FRONT. SOME STORMS
COULD BECOME SEVERE WITH LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 656 AM CDT WED JUL 23 2014/

DISCUSSION...

UPDATED FOR THE 12Z AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

AVIATION...

MODELS ARE NOT HANDLING THE EVOLUTION OF CONVECTION TO THE NORTH
OF ARKANSAS WELL AT ALL. STORMS HAVE LOOSELY FORMED ALONG A
BOUNDARY THIS MORNING...STRETCHING FROM JUST NORTH OF POPLAR BLUFF
MISSOURI OFF TO THE NORTHEAST. IT IS UNCLEAR AT THIS TIME WHETHER
THIS WILL CONTINUE TO BACK BUILD TO THE SOUTHWEST...THUS POSSIBLY
LEAVING NRN TAF SITES FREE OF CONVECTION TODAY AND AFFECTING
CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN SITES...OR WHETHER HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS
WILL EVENTUALLY BE CORRECT AND WE WILL SEE CONVECTION IN THE
NORTHWEST HALF OF THE STATE LATER ON. HAVE STAYED THE COURSE FOR
THE TIME BEING...ADVERTISING VCTS AT NRN SITES AFTER 18Z...AND
LEAVING OTHERS VOID OF ANY MENTION OF CONVECTION. CONFIDENCE IN
WHERE CONVECTION WILL EVENTUALLY OCCUR...AND HOW WIDESPREAD IT
WILL BE...IS NOT VERY HIGH AT THE MOMENT. EXPECT THERE WILL BE
STORMS AROUND THROUGH THE DAY...JUST DO NOT KNOW WHICH TERMINALS
THEY WILL AFFECT AT THIS TIME.

OTHERWISE VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH
WINDS GRADUALLY VEERING TO A NORTHERLY OR NORTHEASTERLY DIRECTION
AFTER 00Z THIS EVENING.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 333 AM CDT WED JUL 23 2014/

TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...
WEATHER WILL CONTINUE TO BE FAIRLY ACTIVE ACROSS THE REGION THIS
PERIOD AS UPPER PATTERN REMAINS HIGHLY AMPLIFIED. HIGH RES MODELS
CONTINUE TO SHOW WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION ALONG AN ADVANCING COLD
FRONT THIS MORNING BUT CURRENT RADAR/SATELLITE TRENDS HAVE YET TO
SHOW ANY DEEP CONVECTION THANKS MAINLY TO WARMER TEMPERATURES ALOFT.
WILL NOT TOTALLY DISCOUNT THESE MODELS BUT POPS HAVE BEEN LOWERED
DUE TO LACK OF ANY ACTIVITY AT THIS TIME.

LATEST MOISTURE CHANNEL IMAGERY SHOWS THE MAJOR PLAYERS QUITE
CLEARLY THIS MORNING. SPRAWLING UPPER LEVEL RIDGE REMAINS CENTERED
OVER COLORADO WITH ANOTHER ANTI-CYCLONE OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC.
IN BETWEEN THESE HIGHS IS EASTERN CONUS TROUGHING WITH WEAK UPPER
LOW THAT WILL MEANDER AROUND THE GULF COAST WITH A MUCH STRONGER
UPPER LOW JUST NOW APPROACHING THE WASHINGTON STATE COAST. UPPER LOW
WILL FLATTEN THE WESTERN RIDGE JUST ENOUGH TO ALLOW THE PREVIOUSLY
MENTIONED COLD FRONT...CURRENTLY OVER SOUTHERN MISSOURI...TO MOVE TO
THE SOUTH.

FRONT IS EXPECTED TO PASS THROUGH THE STATE TODAY WITH ONLY SLIGHT
CHANCE TO LOW END CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION. AFTER ANOTHER HOT DAY
TODAY...THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO STALL OVER THE SOUTHWEST ON
THURSDAY WHICH WILL BRING A BRIEF BREAK FROM THE SUMMER HEAT AND
HUMIDITY. BOUNDARY WILL LIFT BACK TO THE NORTH ON FRIDAY AS WESTERN
RIDGE EXPANDS TO THE EAST WITH A RETURN TO MORE TYPICAL SUMMER
WEATHER. UPPER RIDGE WILL THEN DOMINATE THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
PERIOD WITH A CONTINUATION OF HOT AND GENERALLY DRY CONDITIONS.

LONG TERM...SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY
FOR SEVERAL DAYS NOW THE MODELS HAVE BEEN HINTING AT A PATTERN
CHANGE AS WE HEAD INTO THE WEEKEND...AND THIS CONTINUES TO BE THE
CASE THIS MORNING. AN UPPER LOW...SET TO MOVE ONSHORE IN THE PAC NW
TODAY...WILL HAVE CONTRIBUTED TO A LARGE UPPER TROUGH CARVING OUT A
PLACE ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION BY SUNDAY EVENING. UPPER LEVEL
FLOW WILL FURTHER AMPLIFY HEADING INTO NEXT WEEK...FIRMLY
ESTABLISHING A NORTHWEST UPPER FLOW ACROSS ARKANSAS AND LEADING TO
COOLER THAN NORMAL CONDITIONS TO ROUND OUT JULY.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE RIGHT AROUND NORMAL ON SUNDAY...WITH LOW TO MID
90S FORECAST STATEWIDE. DEVELOPING NW UPPER FLOW ALOFT AND
SUPPORTING UPPER TROUGH OVER ERN CONUS WILL DRIVE A FRONT INTO THE
STATE SOMETIME SUNDAY...MOST LIKELY SUN EVENING. RIGHT NOW MODELS
ARE NOT TOO KEEN ON PRECIP CHANCES...BUT HAVE SOME SLIGHT CHANCE
POPS IN THE NE SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING...FOLLOWED BY
BROAD-BRUSHED SLIGHT CHANCE POPS SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY MORNING.
EXPECT THERE WILL BE AT LEAST SOME ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ACCOMPANY THE FRONT. THE INCOMING AIR MASS WILL NOT BE
AS UNSEASONABLY COOL AS THE ONE FROM LATE LAST WEEK...BUT IT WILL
HAVE A PUSH FROM CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE TO OUR NORTH AND IT WILL
ALSO DEFINITELY BE DRIER AND COOLER THAN NORMAL. MOS GUIDANCE
SUPPORTS THIS SCENARIO...ALREADY SHOWING TEMPS 4-5 DEGREES BELOW
CLIMO AT DAYS 6 AND 7...A SIGNIFICANT AMOUNT GIVEN CLIMO BIAS THAT
FAR OUT. AS SUCH...BY TUE...HIGHS SHOULD TOP OUT ONLY IN THE MID 80S
FOR MOST LOCATIONS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BATESVILLE AR     91  67  84  64 /  40  30  10   0
CAMDEN AR         94  72  92  68 /  40  40  20  10
HARRISON AR       92  66  87  65 /  50  20  10   0
HOT SPRINGS AR    93  72  91  68 /  50  40  10   0
LITTLE ROCK   AR  92  72  88  67 /  50  30  10   0
MONTICELLO AR     94  71  91  67 /  40  40  20  10
MOUNT IDA AR      93  68  91  68 /  50  40  10   0
MOUNTAIN HOME AR  90  67  85  64 /  50  20  10   0
NEWPORT AR        91  67  84  64 /  40  30  10   0
PINE BLUFF AR     93  71  90  68 /  40  40  20   0
RUSSELLVILLE AR   92  71  88  67 /  50  20  10   0
SEARCY AR         91  70  86  66 /  40  30  10   0
STUTTGART AR      92  71  87  66 /  40  40  10   0
&&

.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&

$$


AVIATION...61






000
FXUS64 KLZK 231735
AFDLZK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
1235 PM CDT WED JUL 23 2014

.AVIATION...
CONVECTION SHOULD BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD THROUGHOUT THE AFTERNOON
AND EARLY EVENING HOURS OUT AHEAD OF THE WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY
DRAPED ACROSS SOUTHERN MO. ISOLATED STRONGER STORMS CANNOT BE
RULED OUT...WITH GUSTY WINDS AS THE MAIN THREAT. SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD PASS ON THROUGH...TAPERING OFF SOON AFTER 00Z
ACROSS NORTHERN TERMINALS THEN SOUTHERN TERMINALS A FEW HOURS LATER.
BESIDES SOME PATCHY BR FOR A FEW HOURS EARLY ON THURSDAY...ALL
TERMINALS SHOULD BE VFR BY THE END OF THE PERIOD.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1038 AM CDT WED JUL 23 2014/

UPDATE...
A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO NORTH ARKANSAS LATE THIS MORNING
AND PUSH SOUTH THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. A FEW SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE MOVING THROUGH CENTRAL ARKANSAS AT THIS TIME BUT
CHANCES WILL INCREASE AS WE GO THROUGH THE DAY. INCREASED POPS AND
CLOUD COVER ACROSS THE AREA AS WE HEAD INTO THE AFTERNOON. EXPECT
THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE FRONT. SOME STORMS
COULD BECOME SEVERE WITH LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 656 AM CDT WED JUL 23 2014/

DISCUSSION...

UPDATED FOR THE 12Z AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

AVIATION...

MODELS ARE NOT HANDLING THE EVOLUTION OF CONVECTION TO THE NORTH
OF ARKANSAS WELL AT ALL. STORMS HAVE LOOSELY FORMED ALONG A
BOUNDARY THIS MORNING...STRETCHING FROM JUST NORTH OF POPLAR BLUFF
MISSOURI OFF TO THE NORTHEAST. IT IS UNCLEAR AT THIS TIME WHETHER
THIS WILL CONTINUE TO BACK BUILD TO THE SOUTHWEST...THUS POSSIBLY
LEAVING NRN TAF SITES FREE OF CONVECTION TODAY AND AFFECTING
CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN SITES...OR WHETHER HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS
WILL EVENTUALLY BE CORRECT AND WE WILL SEE CONVECTION IN THE
NORTHWEST HALF OF THE STATE LATER ON. HAVE STAYED THE COURSE FOR
THE TIME BEING...ADVERTISING VCTS AT NRN SITES AFTER 18Z...AND
LEAVING OTHERS VOID OF ANY MENTION OF CONVECTION. CONFIDENCE IN
WHERE CONVECTION WILL EVENTUALLY OCCUR...AND HOW WIDESPREAD IT
WILL BE...IS NOT VERY HIGH AT THE MOMENT. EXPECT THERE WILL BE
STORMS AROUND THROUGH THE DAY...JUST DO NOT KNOW WHICH TERMINALS
THEY WILL AFFECT AT THIS TIME.

OTHERWISE VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH
WINDS GRADUALLY VEERING TO A NORTHERLY OR NORTHEASTERLY DIRECTION
AFTER 00Z THIS EVENING.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 333 AM CDT WED JUL 23 2014/

TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...
WEATHER WILL CONTINUE TO BE FAIRLY ACTIVE ACROSS THE REGION THIS
PERIOD AS UPPER PATTERN REMAINS HIGHLY AMPLIFIED. HIGH RES MODELS
CONTINUE TO SHOW WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION ALONG AN ADVANCING COLD
FRONT THIS MORNING BUT CURRENT RADAR/SATELLITE TRENDS HAVE YET TO
SHOW ANY DEEP CONVECTION THANKS MAINLY TO WARMER TEMPERATURES ALOFT.
WILL NOT TOTALLY DISCOUNT THESE MODELS BUT POPS HAVE BEEN LOWERED
DUE TO LACK OF ANY ACTIVITY AT THIS TIME.

LATEST MOISTURE CHANNEL IMAGERY SHOWS THE MAJOR PLAYERS QUITE
CLEARLY THIS MORNING. SPRAWLING UPPER LEVEL RIDGE REMAINS CENTERED
OVER COLORADO WITH ANOTHER ANTI-CYCLONE OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC.
IN BETWEEN THESE HIGHS IS EASTERN CONUS TROUGHING WITH WEAK UPPER
LOW THAT WILL MEANDER AROUND THE GULF COAST WITH A MUCH STRONGER
UPPER LOW JUST NOW APPROACHING THE WASHINGTON STATE COAST. UPPER LOW
WILL FLATTEN THE WESTERN RIDGE JUST ENOUGH TO ALLOW THE PREVIOUSLY
MENTIONED COLD FRONT...CURRENTLY OVER SOUTHERN MISSOURI...TO MOVE TO
THE SOUTH.

FRONT IS EXPECTED TO PASS THROUGH THE STATE TODAY WITH ONLY SLIGHT
CHANCE TO LOW END CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION. AFTER ANOTHER HOT DAY
TODAY...THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO STALL OVER THE SOUTHWEST ON
THURSDAY WHICH WILL BRING A BRIEF BREAK FROM THE SUMMER HEAT AND
HUMIDITY. BOUNDARY WILL LIFT BACK TO THE NORTH ON FRIDAY AS WESTERN
RIDGE EXPANDS TO THE EAST WITH A RETURN TO MORE TYPICAL SUMMER
WEATHER. UPPER RIDGE WILL THEN DOMINATE THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
PERIOD WITH A CONTINUATION OF HOT AND GENERALLY DRY CONDITIONS.

LONG TERM...SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY
FOR SEVERAL DAYS NOW THE MODELS HAVE BEEN HINTING AT A PATTERN
CHANGE AS WE HEAD INTO THE WEEKEND...AND THIS CONTINUES TO BE THE
CASE THIS MORNING. AN UPPER LOW...SET TO MOVE ONSHORE IN THE PAC NW
TODAY...WILL HAVE CONTRIBUTED TO A LARGE UPPER TROUGH CARVING OUT A
PLACE ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION BY SUNDAY EVENING. UPPER LEVEL
FLOW WILL FURTHER AMPLIFY HEADING INTO NEXT WEEK...FIRMLY
ESTABLISHING A NORTHWEST UPPER FLOW ACROSS ARKANSAS AND LEADING TO
COOLER THAN NORMAL CONDITIONS TO ROUND OUT JULY.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE RIGHT AROUND NORMAL ON SUNDAY...WITH LOW TO MID
90S FORECAST STATEWIDE. DEVELOPING NW UPPER FLOW ALOFT AND
SUPPORTING UPPER TROUGH OVER ERN CONUS WILL DRIVE A FRONT INTO THE
STATE SOMETIME SUNDAY...MOST LIKELY SUN EVENING. RIGHT NOW MODELS
ARE NOT TOO KEEN ON PRECIP CHANCES...BUT HAVE SOME SLIGHT CHANCE
POPS IN THE NE SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING...FOLLOWED BY
BROAD-BRUSHED SLIGHT CHANCE POPS SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY MORNING.
EXPECT THERE WILL BE AT LEAST SOME ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ACCOMPANY THE FRONT. THE INCOMING AIR MASS WILL NOT BE
AS UNSEASONABLY COOL AS THE ONE FROM LATE LAST WEEK...BUT IT WILL
HAVE A PUSH FROM CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE TO OUR NORTH AND IT WILL
ALSO DEFINITELY BE DRIER AND COOLER THAN NORMAL. MOS GUIDANCE
SUPPORTS THIS SCENARIO...ALREADY SHOWING TEMPS 4-5 DEGREES BELOW
CLIMO AT DAYS 6 AND 7...A SIGNIFICANT AMOUNT GIVEN CLIMO BIAS THAT
FAR OUT. AS SUCH...BY TUE...HIGHS SHOULD TOP OUT ONLY IN THE MID 80S
FOR MOST LOCATIONS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BATESVILLE AR     91  67  84  64 /  40  30  10   0
CAMDEN AR         94  72  92  68 /  40  40  20  10
HARRISON AR       92  66  87  65 /  50  20  10   0
HOT SPRINGS AR    93  72  91  68 /  50  40  10   0
LITTLE ROCK   AR  92  72  88  67 /  50  30  10   0
MONTICELLO AR     94  71  91  67 /  40  40  20  10
MOUNT IDA AR      93  68  91  68 /  50  40  10   0
MOUNTAIN HOME AR  90  67  85  64 /  50  20  10   0
NEWPORT AR        91  67  84  64 /  40  30  10   0
PINE BLUFF AR     93  71  90  68 /  40  40  20   0
RUSSELLVILLE AR   92  71  88  67 /  50  20  10   0
SEARCY AR         91  70  86  66 /  40  30  10   0
STUTTGART AR      92  71  87  66 /  40  40  10   0
&&

.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&

$$


AVIATION...61





000
FXUS64 KLZK 231538
AFDLZK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
1038 AM CDT WED JUL 23 2014

.UPDATE...
A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO NORTH ARKANSAS LATE THIS MORNING
AND PUSH SOUTH THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. A FEW SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE MOVING THROUGH CENTRAL ARKANSAS AT THIS TIME BUT
CHANCES WILL INCREASE AS WE GO THROUGH THE DAY. INCREASED POPS AND
CLOUD COVER ACROSS THE AREA AS WE HEAD INTO THE AFTERNOON. EXPECT
THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE FRONT. SOME STORMS
COULD BECOME SEVERE WITH LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 656 AM CDT WED JUL 23 2014/

DISCUSSION...

UPDATED FOR THE 12Z AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

AVIATION...

MODELS ARE NOT HANDLING THE EVOLUTION OF CONVECTION TO THE NORTH
OF ARKANSAS WELL AT ALL. STORMS HAVE LOOSELY FORMED ALONG A
BOUNDARY THIS MORNING...STRETCHING FROM JUST NORTH OF POPLAR BLUFF
MISSOURI OFF TO THE NORTHEAST. IT IS UNCLEAR AT THIS TIME WHETHER
THIS WILL CONTINUE TO BACK BUILD TO THE SOUTHWEST...THUS POSSIBLY
LEAVING NRN TAF SITES FREE OF CONVECTION TODAY AND AFFECTING
CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN SITES...OR WHETHER HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS
WILL EVENTUALLY BE CORRECT AND WE WILL SEE CONVECTION IN THE
NORTHWEST HALF OF THE STATE LATER ON. HAVE STAYED THE COURSE FOR
THE TIME BEING...ADVERTISING VCTS AT NRN SITES AFTER 18Z...AND
LEAVING OTHERS VOID OF ANY MENTION OF CONVECTION. CONFIDENCE IN
WHERE CONVECTION WILL EVENTUALLY OCCUR...AND HOW WIDESPREAD IT
WILL BE...IS NOT VERY HIGH AT THE MOMENT. EXPECT THERE WILL BE
STORMS AROUND THROUGH THE DAY...JUST DO NOT KNOW WHICH TERMINALS
THEY WILL AFFECT AT THIS TIME.

OTHERWISE VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH
WINDS GRADUALLY VEERING TO A NORTHERLY OR NORTHEASTERLY DIRECTION
AFTER 00Z THIS EVENING.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 333 AM CDT WED JUL 23 2014/

TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...
WEATHER WILL CONTINUE TO BE FAIRLY ACTIVE ACROSS THE REGION THIS
PERIOD AS UPPER PATTERN REMAINS HIGHLY AMPLIFIED. HIGH RES MODELS
CONTINUE TO SHOW WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION ALONG AN ADVANCING COLD
FRONT THIS MORNING BUT CURRENT RADAR/SATELLITE TRENDS HAVE YET TO
SHOW ANY DEEP CONVECTION THANKS MAINLY TO WARMER TEMPERATURES ALOFT.
WILL NOT TOTALLY DISCOUNT THESE MODELS BUT POPS HAVE BEEN LOWERED
DUE TO LACK OF ANY ACTIVITY AT THIS TIME.

LATEST MOISTURE CHANNEL IMAGERY SHOWS THE MAJOR PLAYERS QUITE
CLEARLY THIS MORNING. SPRAWLING UPPER LEVEL RIDGE REMAINS CENTERED
OVER COLORADO WITH ANOTHER ANTI-CYCLONE OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC.
IN BETWEEN THESE HIGHS IS EASTERN CONUS TROUGHING WITH WEAK UPPER
LOW THAT WILL MEANDER AROUND THE GULF COAST WITH A MUCH STRONGER
UPPER LOW JUST NOW APPROACHING THE WASHINGTON STATE COAST. UPPER LOW
WILL FLATTEN THE WESTERN RIDGE JUST ENOUGH TO ALLOW THE PREVIOUSLY
MENTIONED COLD FRONT...CURRENTLY OVER SOUTHERN MISSOURI...TO MOVE TO
THE SOUTH.

FRONT IS EXPECTED TO PASS THROUGH THE STATE TODAY WITH ONLY SLIGHT
CHANCE TO LOW END CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION. AFTER ANOTHER HOT DAY
TODAY...THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO STALL OVER THE SOUTHWEST ON
THURSDAY WHICH WILL BRING A BRIEF BREAK FROM THE SUMMER HEAT AND
HUMIDITY. BOUNDARY WILL LIFT BACK TO THE NORTH ON FRIDAY AS WESTERN
RIDGE EXPANDS TO THE EAST WITH A RETURN TO MORE TYPICAL SUMMER
WEATHER. UPPER RIDGE WILL THEN DOMINATE THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
PERIOD WITH A CONTINUATION OF HOT AND GENERALLY DRY CONDITIONS.

LONG TERM...SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY
FOR SEVERAL DAYS NOW THE MODELS HAVE BEEN HINTING AT A PATTERN
CHANGE AS WE HEAD INTO THE WEEKEND...AND THIS CONTINUES TO BE THE
CASE THIS MORNING. AN UPPER LOW...SET TO MOVE ONSHORE IN THE PAC NW
TODAY...WILL HAVE CONTRIBUTED TO A LARGE UPPER TROUGH CARVING OUT A
PLACE ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION BY SUNDAY EVENING. UPPER LEVEL
FLOW WILL FURTHER AMPLIFY HEADING INTO NEXT WEEK...FIRMLY
ESTABLISHING A NORTHWEST UPPER FLOW ACROSS ARKANSAS AND LEADING TO
COOLER THAN NORMAL CONDITIONS TO ROUND OUT JULY.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE RIGHT AROUND NORMAL ON SUNDAY...WITH LOW TO MID
90S FORECAST STATEWIDE. DEVELOPING NW UPPER FLOW ALOFT AND
SUPPORTING UPPER TROUGH OVER ERN CONUS WILL DRIVE A FRONT INTO THE
STATE SOMETIME SUNDAY...MOST LIKELY SUN EVENING. RIGHT NOW MODELS
ARE NOT TOO KEEN ON PRECIP CHANCES...BUT HAVE SOME SLIGHT CHANCE
POPS IN THE NE SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING...FOLLOWED BY
BROAD-BRUSHED SLIGHT CHANCE POPS SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY MORNING.
EXPECT THERE WILL BE AT LEAST SOME ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ACCOMPANY THE FRONT. THE INCOMING AIR MASS WILL NOT BE
AS UNSEASONABLY COOL AS THE ONE FROM LATE LAST WEEK...BUT IT WILL
HAVE A PUSH FROM CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE TO OUR NORTH AND IT WILL
ALSO DEFINITELY BE DRIER AND COOLER THAN NORMAL. MOS GUIDANCE
SUPPORTS THIS SCENARIO...ALREADY SHOWING TEMPS 4-5 DEGREES BELOW
CLIMO AT DAYS 6 AND 7...A SIGNIFICANT AMOUNT GIVEN CLIMO BIAS THAT
FAR OUT. AS SUCH...BY TUE...HIGHS SHOULD TOP OUT ONLY IN THE MID 80S
FOR MOST LOCATIONS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BATESVILLE AR     91  67  84  64 /  40  30  10   0
CAMDEN AR         94  72  92  68 /  40  40  20  10
HARRISON AR       92  66  87  65 /  50  20  10   0
HOT SPRINGS AR    93  72  91  68 /  50  40  10   0
LITTLE ROCK   AR  92  72  88  67 /  50  30  10   0
MONTICELLO AR     94  71  91  67 /  40  40  20  10
MOUNT IDA AR      93  68  91  68 /  50  40  10   0
MOUNTAIN HOME AR  90  67  85  64 /  50  20  10   0
NEWPORT AR        91  67  84  64 /  40  30  10   0
PINE BLUFF AR     93  71  90  68 /  40  40  20   0
RUSSELLVILLE AR   92  71  88  67 /  50  20  10   0
SEARCY AR         91  70  86  66 /  40  30  10   0
STUTTGART AR      92  71  87  66 /  40  40  10   0
&&

.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&

$$

51





000
FXUS64 KLZK 231538
AFDLZK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
1038 AM CDT WED JUL 23 2014

.UPDATE...
A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO NORTH ARKANSAS LATE THIS MORNING
AND PUSH SOUTH THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. A FEW SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE MOVING THROUGH CENTRAL ARKANSAS AT THIS TIME BUT
CHANCES WILL INCREASE AS WE GO THROUGH THE DAY. INCREASED POPS AND
CLOUD COVER ACROSS THE AREA AS WE HEAD INTO THE AFTERNOON. EXPECT
THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE FRONT. SOME STORMS
COULD BECOME SEVERE WITH LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 656 AM CDT WED JUL 23 2014/

DISCUSSION...

UPDATED FOR THE 12Z AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

AVIATION...

MODELS ARE NOT HANDLING THE EVOLUTION OF CONVECTION TO THE NORTH
OF ARKANSAS WELL AT ALL. STORMS HAVE LOOSELY FORMED ALONG A
BOUNDARY THIS MORNING...STRETCHING FROM JUST NORTH OF POPLAR BLUFF
MISSOURI OFF TO THE NORTHEAST. IT IS UNCLEAR AT THIS TIME WHETHER
THIS WILL CONTINUE TO BACK BUILD TO THE SOUTHWEST...THUS POSSIBLY
LEAVING NRN TAF SITES FREE OF CONVECTION TODAY AND AFFECTING
CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN SITES...OR WHETHER HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS
WILL EVENTUALLY BE CORRECT AND WE WILL SEE CONVECTION IN THE
NORTHWEST HALF OF THE STATE LATER ON. HAVE STAYED THE COURSE FOR
THE TIME BEING...ADVERTISING VCTS AT NRN SITES AFTER 18Z...AND
LEAVING OTHERS VOID OF ANY MENTION OF CONVECTION. CONFIDENCE IN
WHERE CONVECTION WILL EVENTUALLY OCCUR...AND HOW WIDESPREAD IT
WILL BE...IS NOT VERY HIGH AT THE MOMENT. EXPECT THERE WILL BE
STORMS AROUND THROUGH THE DAY...JUST DO NOT KNOW WHICH TERMINALS
THEY WILL AFFECT AT THIS TIME.

OTHERWISE VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH
WINDS GRADUALLY VEERING TO A NORTHERLY OR NORTHEASTERLY DIRECTION
AFTER 00Z THIS EVENING.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 333 AM CDT WED JUL 23 2014/

TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...
WEATHER WILL CONTINUE TO BE FAIRLY ACTIVE ACROSS THE REGION THIS
PERIOD AS UPPER PATTERN REMAINS HIGHLY AMPLIFIED. HIGH RES MODELS
CONTINUE TO SHOW WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION ALONG AN ADVANCING COLD
FRONT THIS MORNING BUT CURRENT RADAR/SATELLITE TRENDS HAVE YET TO
SHOW ANY DEEP CONVECTION THANKS MAINLY TO WARMER TEMPERATURES ALOFT.
WILL NOT TOTALLY DISCOUNT THESE MODELS BUT POPS HAVE BEEN LOWERED
DUE TO LACK OF ANY ACTIVITY AT THIS TIME.

LATEST MOISTURE CHANNEL IMAGERY SHOWS THE MAJOR PLAYERS QUITE
CLEARLY THIS MORNING. SPRAWLING UPPER LEVEL RIDGE REMAINS CENTERED
OVER COLORADO WITH ANOTHER ANTI-CYCLONE OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC.
IN BETWEEN THESE HIGHS IS EASTERN CONUS TROUGHING WITH WEAK UPPER
LOW THAT WILL MEANDER AROUND THE GULF COAST WITH A MUCH STRONGER
UPPER LOW JUST NOW APPROACHING THE WASHINGTON STATE COAST. UPPER LOW
WILL FLATTEN THE WESTERN RIDGE JUST ENOUGH TO ALLOW THE PREVIOUSLY
MENTIONED COLD FRONT...CURRENTLY OVER SOUTHERN MISSOURI...TO MOVE TO
THE SOUTH.

FRONT IS EXPECTED TO PASS THROUGH THE STATE TODAY WITH ONLY SLIGHT
CHANCE TO LOW END CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION. AFTER ANOTHER HOT DAY
TODAY...THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO STALL OVER THE SOUTHWEST ON
THURSDAY WHICH WILL BRING A BRIEF BREAK FROM THE SUMMER HEAT AND
HUMIDITY. BOUNDARY WILL LIFT BACK TO THE NORTH ON FRIDAY AS WESTERN
RIDGE EXPANDS TO THE EAST WITH A RETURN TO MORE TYPICAL SUMMER
WEATHER. UPPER RIDGE WILL THEN DOMINATE THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
PERIOD WITH A CONTINUATION OF HOT AND GENERALLY DRY CONDITIONS.

LONG TERM...SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY
FOR SEVERAL DAYS NOW THE MODELS HAVE BEEN HINTING AT A PATTERN
CHANGE AS WE HEAD INTO THE WEEKEND...AND THIS CONTINUES TO BE THE
CASE THIS MORNING. AN UPPER LOW...SET TO MOVE ONSHORE IN THE PAC NW
TODAY...WILL HAVE CONTRIBUTED TO A LARGE UPPER TROUGH CARVING OUT A
PLACE ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION BY SUNDAY EVENING. UPPER LEVEL
FLOW WILL FURTHER AMPLIFY HEADING INTO NEXT WEEK...FIRMLY
ESTABLISHING A NORTHWEST UPPER FLOW ACROSS ARKANSAS AND LEADING TO
COOLER THAN NORMAL CONDITIONS TO ROUND OUT JULY.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE RIGHT AROUND NORMAL ON SUNDAY...WITH LOW TO MID
90S FORECAST STATEWIDE. DEVELOPING NW UPPER FLOW ALOFT AND
SUPPORTING UPPER TROUGH OVER ERN CONUS WILL DRIVE A FRONT INTO THE
STATE SOMETIME SUNDAY...MOST LIKELY SUN EVENING. RIGHT NOW MODELS
ARE NOT TOO KEEN ON PRECIP CHANCES...BUT HAVE SOME SLIGHT CHANCE
POPS IN THE NE SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING...FOLLOWED BY
BROAD-BRUSHED SLIGHT CHANCE POPS SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY MORNING.
EXPECT THERE WILL BE AT LEAST SOME ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ACCOMPANY THE FRONT. THE INCOMING AIR MASS WILL NOT BE
AS UNSEASONABLY COOL AS THE ONE FROM LATE LAST WEEK...BUT IT WILL
HAVE A PUSH FROM CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE TO OUR NORTH AND IT WILL
ALSO DEFINITELY BE DRIER AND COOLER THAN NORMAL. MOS GUIDANCE
SUPPORTS THIS SCENARIO...ALREADY SHOWING TEMPS 4-5 DEGREES BELOW
CLIMO AT DAYS 6 AND 7...A SIGNIFICANT AMOUNT GIVEN CLIMO BIAS THAT
FAR OUT. AS SUCH...BY TUE...HIGHS SHOULD TOP OUT ONLY IN THE MID 80S
FOR MOST LOCATIONS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BATESVILLE AR     91  67  84  64 /  40  30  10   0
CAMDEN AR         94  72  92  68 /  40  40  20  10
HARRISON AR       92  66  87  65 /  50  20  10   0
HOT SPRINGS AR    93  72  91  68 /  50  40  10   0
LITTLE ROCK   AR  92  72  88  67 /  50  30  10   0
MONTICELLO AR     94  71  91  67 /  40  40  20  10
MOUNT IDA AR      93  68  91  68 /  50  40  10   0
MOUNTAIN HOME AR  90  67  85  64 /  50  20  10   0
NEWPORT AR        91  67  84  64 /  40  30  10   0
PINE BLUFF AR     93  71  90  68 /  40  40  20   0
RUSSELLVILLE AR   92  71  88  67 /  50  20  10   0
SEARCY AR         91  70  86  66 /  40  30  10   0
STUTTGART AR      92  71  87  66 /  40  40  10   0
&&

.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&

$$

51





000
FXUS64 KLZK 231538
AFDLZK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
1038 AM CDT WED JUL 23 2014

.UPDATE...
A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO NORTH ARKANSAS LATE THIS MORNING
AND PUSH SOUTH THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. A FEW SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE MOVING THROUGH CENTRAL ARKANSAS AT THIS TIME BUT
CHANCES WILL INCREASE AS WE GO THROUGH THE DAY. INCREASED POPS AND
CLOUD COVER ACROSS THE AREA AS WE HEAD INTO THE AFTERNOON. EXPECT
THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE FRONT. SOME STORMS
COULD BECOME SEVERE WITH LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 656 AM CDT WED JUL 23 2014/

DISCUSSION...

UPDATED FOR THE 12Z AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

AVIATION...

MODELS ARE NOT HANDLING THE EVOLUTION OF CONVECTION TO THE NORTH
OF ARKANSAS WELL AT ALL. STORMS HAVE LOOSELY FORMED ALONG A
BOUNDARY THIS MORNING...STRETCHING FROM JUST NORTH OF POPLAR BLUFF
MISSOURI OFF TO THE NORTHEAST. IT IS UNCLEAR AT THIS TIME WHETHER
THIS WILL CONTINUE TO BACK BUILD TO THE SOUTHWEST...THUS POSSIBLY
LEAVING NRN TAF SITES FREE OF CONVECTION TODAY AND AFFECTING
CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN SITES...OR WHETHER HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS
WILL EVENTUALLY BE CORRECT AND WE WILL SEE CONVECTION IN THE
NORTHWEST HALF OF THE STATE LATER ON. HAVE STAYED THE COURSE FOR
THE TIME BEING...ADVERTISING VCTS AT NRN SITES AFTER 18Z...AND
LEAVING OTHERS VOID OF ANY MENTION OF CONVECTION. CONFIDENCE IN
WHERE CONVECTION WILL EVENTUALLY OCCUR...AND HOW WIDESPREAD IT
WILL BE...IS NOT VERY HIGH AT THE MOMENT. EXPECT THERE WILL BE
STORMS AROUND THROUGH THE DAY...JUST DO NOT KNOW WHICH TERMINALS
THEY WILL AFFECT AT THIS TIME.

OTHERWISE VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH
WINDS GRADUALLY VEERING TO A NORTHERLY OR NORTHEASTERLY DIRECTION
AFTER 00Z THIS EVENING.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 333 AM CDT WED JUL 23 2014/

TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...
WEATHER WILL CONTINUE TO BE FAIRLY ACTIVE ACROSS THE REGION THIS
PERIOD AS UPPER PATTERN REMAINS HIGHLY AMPLIFIED. HIGH RES MODELS
CONTINUE TO SHOW WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION ALONG AN ADVANCING COLD
FRONT THIS MORNING BUT CURRENT RADAR/SATELLITE TRENDS HAVE YET TO
SHOW ANY DEEP CONVECTION THANKS MAINLY TO WARMER TEMPERATURES ALOFT.
WILL NOT TOTALLY DISCOUNT THESE MODELS BUT POPS HAVE BEEN LOWERED
DUE TO LACK OF ANY ACTIVITY AT THIS TIME.

LATEST MOISTURE CHANNEL IMAGERY SHOWS THE MAJOR PLAYERS QUITE
CLEARLY THIS MORNING. SPRAWLING UPPER LEVEL RIDGE REMAINS CENTERED
OVER COLORADO WITH ANOTHER ANTI-CYCLONE OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC.
IN BETWEEN THESE HIGHS IS EASTERN CONUS TROUGHING WITH WEAK UPPER
LOW THAT WILL MEANDER AROUND THE GULF COAST WITH A MUCH STRONGER
UPPER LOW JUST NOW APPROACHING THE WASHINGTON STATE COAST. UPPER LOW
WILL FLATTEN THE WESTERN RIDGE JUST ENOUGH TO ALLOW THE PREVIOUSLY
MENTIONED COLD FRONT...CURRENTLY OVER SOUTHERN MISSOURI...TO MOVE TO
THE SOUTH.

FRONT IS EXPECTED TO PASS THROUGH THE STATE TODAY WITH ONLY SLIGHT
CHANCE TO LOW END CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION. AFTER ANOTHER HOT DAY
TODAY...THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO STALL OVER THE SOUTHWEST ON
THURSDAY WHICH WILL BRING A BRIEF BREAK FROM THE SUMMER HEAT AND
HUMIDITY. BOUNDARY WILL LIFT BACK TO THE NORTH ON FRIDAY AS WESTERN
RIDGE EXPANDS TO THE EAST WITH A RETURN TO MORE TYPICAL SUMMER
WEATHER. UPPER RIDGE WILL THEN DOMINATE THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
PERIOD WITH A CONTINUATION OF HOT AND GENERALLY DRY CONDITIONS.

LONG TERM...SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY
FOR SEVERAL DAYS NOW THE MODELS HAVE BEEN HINTING AT A PATTERN
CHANGE AS WE HEAD INTO THE WEEKEND...AND THIS CONTINUES TO BE THE
CASE THIS MORNING. AN UPPER LOW...SET TO MOVE ONSHORE IN THE PAC NW
TODAY...WILL HAVE CONTRIBUTED TO A LARGE UPPER TROUGH CARVING OUT A
PLACE ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION BY SUNDAY EVENING. UPPER LEVEL
FLOW WILL FURTHER AMPLIFY HEADING INTO NEXT WEEK...FIRMLY
ESTABLISHING A NORTHWEST UPPER FLOW ACROSS ARKANSAS AND LEADING TO
COOLER THAN NORMAL CONDITIONS TO ROUND OUT JULY.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE RIGHT AROUND NORMAL ON SUNDAY...WITH LOW TO MID
90S FORECAST STATEWIDE. DEVELOPING NW UPPER FLOW ALOFT AND
SUPPORTING UPPER TROUGH OVER ERN CONUS WILL DRIVE A FRONT INTO THE
STATE SOMETIME SUNDAY...MOST LIKELY SUN EVENING. RIGHT NOW MODELS
ARE NOT TOO KEEN ON PRECIP CHANCES...BUT HAVE SOME SLIGHT CHANCE
POPS IN THE NE SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING...FOLLOWED BY
BROAD-BRUSHED SLIGHT CHANCE POPS SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY MORNING.
EXPECT THERE WILL BE AT LEAST SOME ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ACCOMPANY THE FRONT. THE INCOMING AIR MASS WILL NOT BE
AS UNSEASONABLY COOL AS THE ONE FROM LATE LAST WEEK...BUT IT WILL
HAVE A PUSH FROM CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE TO OUR NORTH AND IT WILL
ALSO DEFINITELY BE DRIER AND COOLER THAN NORMAL. MOS GUIDANCE
SUPPORTS THIS SCENARIO...ALREADY SHOWING TEMPS 4-5 DEGREES BELOW
CLIMO AT DAYS 6 AND 7...A SIGNIFICANT AMOUNT GIVEN CLIMO BIAS THAT
FAR OUT. AS SUCH...BY TUE...HIGHS SHOULD TOP OUT ONLY IN THE MID 80S
FOR MOST LOCATIONS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BATESVILLE AR     91  67  84  64 /  40  30  10   0
CAMDEN AR         94  72  92  68 /  40  40  20  10
HARRISON AR       92  66  87  65 /  50  20  10   0
HOT SPRINGS AR    93  72  91  68 /  50  40  10   0
LITTLE ROCK   AR  92  72  88  67 /  50  30  10   0
MONTICELLO AR     94  71  91  67 /  40  40  20  10
MOUNT IDA AR      93  68  91  68 /  50  40  10   0
MOUNTAIN HOME AR  90  67  85  64 /  50  20  10   0
NEWPORT AR        91  67  84  64 /  40  30  10   0
PINE BLUFF AR     93  71  90  68 /  40  40  20   0
RUSSELLVILLE AR   92  71  88  67 /  50  20  10   0
SEARCY AR         91  70  86  66 /  40  30  10   0
STUTTGART AR      92  71  87  66 /  40  40  10   0
&&

.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&

$$

51





000
FXUS64 KLZK 231538
AFDLZK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
1038 AM CDT WED JUL 23 2014

.UPDATE...
A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO NORTH ARKANSAS LATE THIS MORNING
AND PUSH SOUTH THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. A FEW SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE MOVING THROUGH CENTRAL ARKANSAS AT THIS TIME BUT
CHANCES WILL INCREASE AS WE GO THROUGH THE DAY. INCREASED POPS AND
CLOUD COVER ACROSS THE AREA AS WE HEAD INTO THE AFTERNOON. EXPECT
THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE FRONT. SOME STORMS
COULD BECOME SEVERE WITH LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 656 AM CDT WED JUL 23 2014/

DISCUSSION...

UPDATED FOR THE 12Z AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

AVIATION...

MODELS ARE NOT HANDLING THE EVOLUTION OF CONVECTION TO THE NORTH
OF ARKANSAS WELL AT ALL. STORMS HAVE LOOSELY FORMED ALONG A
BOUNDARY THIS MORNING...STRETCHING FROM JUST NORTH OF POPLAR BLUFF
MISSOURI OFF TO THE NORTHEAST. IT IS UNCLEAR AT THIS TIME WHETHER
THIS WILL CONTINUE TO BACK BUILD TO THE SOUTHWEST...THUS POSSIBLY
LEAVING NRN TAF SITES FREE OF CONVECTION TODAY AND AFFECTING
CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN SITES...OR WHETHER HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS
WILL EVENTUALLY BE CORRECT AND WE WILL SEE CONVECTION IN THE
NORTHWEST HALF OF THE STATE LATER ON. HAVE STAYED THE COURSE FOR
THE TIME BEING...ADVERTISING VCTS AT NRN SITES AFTER 18Z...AND
LEAVING OTHERS VOID OF ANY MENTION OF CONVECTION. CONFIDENCE IN
WHERE CONVECTION WILL EVENTUALLY OCCUR...AND HOW WIDESPREAD IT
WILL BE...IS NOT VERY HIGH AT THE MOMENT. EXPECT THERE WILL BE
STORMS AROUND THROUGH THE DAY...JUST DO NOT KNOW WHICH TERMINALS
THEY WILL AFFECT AT THIS TIME.

OTHERWISE VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH
WINDS GRADUALLY VEERING TO A NORTHERLY OR NORTHEASTERLY DIRECTION
AFTER 00Z THIS EVENING.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 333 AM CDT WED JUL 23 2014/

TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...
WEATHER WILL CONTINUE TO BE FAIRLY ACTIVE ACROSS THE REGION THIS
PERIOD AS UPPER PATTERN REMAINS HIGHLY AMPLIFIED. HIGH RES MODELS
CONTINUE TO SHOW WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION ALONG AN ADVANCING COLD
FRONT THIS MORNING BUT CURRENT RADAR/SATELLITE TRENDS HAVE YET TO
SHOW ANY DEEP CONVECTION THANKS MAINLY TO WARMER TEMPERATURES ALOFT.
WILL NOT TOTALLY DISCOUNT THESE MODELS BUT POPS HAVE BEEN LOWERED
DUE TO LACK OF ANY ACTIVITY AT THIS TIME.

LATEST MOISTURE CHANNEL IMAGERY SHOWS THE MAJOR PLAYERS QUITE
CLEARLY THIS MORNING. SPRAWLING UPPER LEVEL RIDGE REMAINS CENTERED
OVER COLORADO WITH ANOTHER ANTI-CYCLONE OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC.
IN BETWEEN THESE HIGHS IS EASTERN CONUS TROUGHING WITH WEAK UPPER
LOW THAT WILL MEANDER AROUND THE GULF COAST WITH A MUCH STRONGER
UPPER LOW JUST NOW APPROACHING THE WASHINGTON STATE COAST. UPPER LOW
WILL FLATTEN THE WESTERN RIDGE JUST ENOUGH TO ALLOW THE PREVIOUSLY
MENTIONED COLD FRONT...CURRENTLY OVER SOUTHERN MISSOURI...TO MOVE TO
THE SOUTH.

FRONT IS EXPECTED TO PASS THROUGH THE STATE TODAY WITH ONLY SLIGHT
CHANCE TO LOW END CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION. AFTER ANOTHER HOT DAY
TODAY...THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO STALL OVER THE SOUTHWEST ON
THURSDAY WHICH WILL BRING A BRIEF BREAK FROM THE SUMMER HEAT AND
HUMIDITY. BOUNDARY WILL LIFT BACK TO THE NORTH ON FRIDAY AS WESTERN
RIDGE EXPANDS TO THE EAST WITH A RETURN TO MORE TYPICAL SUMMER
WEATHER. UPPER RIDGE WILL THEN DOMINATE THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
PERIOD WITH A CONTINUATION OF HOT AND GENERALLY DRY CONDITIONS.

LONG TERM...SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY
FOR SEVERAL DAYS NOW THE MODELS HAVE BEEN HINTING AT A PATTERN
CHANGE AS WE HEAD INTO THE WEEKEND...AND THIS CONTINUES TO BE THE
CASE THIS MORNING. AN UPPER LOW...SET TO MOVE ONSHORE IN THE PAC NW
TODAY...WILL HAVE CONTRIBUTED TO A LARGE UPPER TROUGH CARVING OUT A
PLACE ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION BY SUNDAY EVENING. UPPER LEVEL
FLOW WILL FURTHER AMPLIFY HEADING INTO NEXT WEEK...FIRMLY
ESTABLISHING A NORTHWEST UPPER FLOW ACROSS ARKANSAS AND LEADING TO
COOLER THAN NORMAL CONDITIONS TO ROUND OUT JULY.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE RIGHT AROUND NORMAL ON SUNDAY...WITH LOW TO MID
90S FORECAST STATEWIDE. DEVELOPING NW UPPER FLOW ALOFT AND
SUPPORTING UPPER TROUGH OVER ERN CONUS WILL DRIVE A FRONT INTO THE
STATE SOMETIME SUNDAY...MOST LIKELY SUN EVENING. RIGHT NOW MODELS
ARE NOT TOO KEEN ON PRECIP CHANCES...BUT HAVE SOME SLIGHT CHANCE
POPS IN THE NE SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING...FOLLOWED BY
BROAD-BRUSHED SLIGHT CHANCE POPS SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY MORNING.
EXPECT THERE WILL BE AT LEAST SOME ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ACCOMPANY THE FRONT. THE INCOMING AIR MASS WILL NOT BE
AS UNSEASONABLY COOL AS THE ONE FROM LATE LAST WEEK...BUT IT WILL
HAVE A PUSH FROM CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE TO OUR NORTH AND IT WILL
ALSO DEFINITELY BE DRIER AND COOLER THAN NORMAL. MOS GUIDANCE
SUPPORTS THIS SCENARIO...ALREADY SHOWING TEMPS 4-5 DEGREES BELOW
CLIMO AT DAYS 6 AND 7...A SIGNIFICANT AMOUNT GIVEN CLIMO BIAS THAT
FAR OUT. AS SUCH...BY TUE...HIGHS SHOULD TOP OUT ONLY IN THE MID 80S
FOR MOST LOCATIONS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BATESVILLE AR     91  67  84  64 /  40  30  10   0
CAMDEN AR         94  72  92  68 /  40  40  20  10
HARRISON AR       92  66  87  65 /  50  20  10   0
HOT SPRINGS AR    93  72  91  68 /  50  40  10   0
LITTLE ROCK   AR  92  72  88  67 /  50  30  10   0
MONTICELLO AR     94  71  91  67 /  40  40  20  10
MOUNT IDA AR      93  68  91  68 /  50  40  10   0
MOUNTAIN HOME AR  90  67  85  64 /  50  20  10   0
NEWPORT AR        91  67  84  64 /  40  30  10   0
PINE BLUFF AR     93  71  90  68 /  40  40  20   0
RUSSELLVILLE AR   92  71  88  67 /  50  20  10   0
SEARCY AR         91  70  86  66 /  40  30  10   0
STUTTGART AR      92  71  87  66 /  40  40  10   0
&&

.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&

$$

51





000
FXUS64 KLZK 231156 AAA
AFDLZK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
656 AM CDT WED JUL 23 2014

.DISCUSSION...

UPDATED FOR THE 12Z AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

&&

.AVIATION...

MODELS ARE NOT HANDLING THE EVOLUTION OF CONVECTION TO THE NORTH
OF ARKANSAS WELL AT ALL. STORMS HAVE LOOSELY FORMED ALONG A
BOUNDARY THIS MORNING...STRETCHING FROM JUST NORTH OF POPLAR BLUFF
MISSOURI OFF TO THE NORTHEAST. IT IS UNCLEAR AT THIS TIME WHETHER
THIS WILL CONTINUE TO BACK BUILD TO THE SOUTHWEST...THUS POSSIBLY
LEAVING NRN TAF SITES FREE OF CONVECTION TODAY AND AFFECTING
CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN SITES...OR WHETHER HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS
WILL EVENTUALLY BE CORRECT AND WE WILL SEE CONVECTION IN THE
NORTHWEST HALF OF THE STATE LATER ON. HAVE STAYED THE COURSE FOR
THE TIME BEING...ADVERTISING VCTS AT NRN SITES AFTER 18Z...AND
LEAVING OTHERS VOID OF ANY MENTION OF CONVECTION. CONFIDENCE IN
WHERE CONVECTION WILL EVENTUALLY OCCUR...AND HOW WIDESPREAD IT
WILL BE...IS NOT VERY HIGH AT THE MOMENT. EXPECT THERE WILL BE
STORMS AROUND THROUGH THE DAY...JUST DO NOT KNOW WHICH TERMINALS
THEY WILL AFFECT AT THIS TIME.

OTHERWISE VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH
WINDS GRADUALLY VEERING TO A NORTHERLY OR NORTHEASTERLY DIRECTION
AFTER 00Z THIS EVENING.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 333 AM CDT WED JUL 23 2014/

TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...
WEATHER WILL CONTINUE TO BE FAIRLY ACTIVE ACROSS THE REGION THIS
PERIOD AS UPPER PATTERN REMAINS HIGHLY AMPLIFIED. HIGH RES MODELS
CONTINUE TO SHOW WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION ALONG AN ADVANCING COLD
FRONT THIS MORNING BUT CURRENT RADAR/SATELLITE TRENDS HAVE YET TO
SHOW ANY DEEP CONVECTION THANKS MAINLY TO WARMER TEMPERATURES ALOFT.
WILL NOT TOTALLY DISCOUNT THESE MODELS BUT POPS HAVE BEEN LOWERED
DUE TO LACK OF ANY ACTIVITY AT THIS TIME.

LATEST MOISTURE CHANNEL IMAGERY SHOWS THE MAJOR PLAYERS QUITE
CLEARLY THIS MORNING. SPRAWLING UPPER LEVEL RIDGE REMAINS CENTERED
OVER COLORADO WITH ANOTHER ANTI-CYCLONE OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC.
IN BETWEEN THESE HIGHS IS EASTERN CONUS TROUGHING WITH WEAK UPPER
LOW THAT WILL MEANDER AROUND THE GULF COAST WITH A MUCH STRONGER
UPPER LOW JUST NOW APPROACHING THE WASHINGTON STATE COAST. UPPER LOW
WILL FLATTEN THE WESTERN RIDGE JUST ENOUGH TO ALLOW THE PREVIOUSLY
MENTIONED COLD FRONT...CURRENTLY OVER SOUTHERN MISSOURI...TO MOVE TO
THE SOUTH.

FRONT IS EXPECTED TO PASS THROUGH THE STATE TODAY WITH ONLY SLIGHT
CHANCE TO LOW END CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION. AFTER ANOTHER HOT DAY
TODAY...THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO STALL OVER THE SOUTHWEST ON
THURSDAY WHICH WILL BRING A BRIEF BREAK FROM THE SUMMER HEAT AND
HUMIDITY. BOUNDARY WILL LIFT BACK TO THE NORTH ON FRIDAY AS WESTERN
RIDGE EXPANDS TO THE EAST WITH A RETURN TO MORE TYPICAL SUMMER
WEATHER. UPPER RIDGE WILL THEN DOMINATE THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
PERIOD WITH A CONTINUATION OF HOT AND GENERALLY DRY CONDITIONS.

LONG TERM...SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY
FOR SEVERAL DAYS NOW THE MODELS HAVE BEEN HINTING AT A PATTERN
CHANGE AS WE HEAD INTO THE WEEKEND...AND THIS CONTINUES TO BE THE
CASE THIS MORNING. AN UPPER LOW...SET TO MOVE ONSHORE IN THE PAC NW
TODAY...WILL HAVE CONTRIBUTED TO A LARGE UPPER TROUGH CARVING OUT A
PLACE ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION BY SUNDAY EVENING. UPPER LEVEL
FLOW WILL FURTHER AMPLIFY HEADING INTO NEXT WEEK...FIRMLY
ESTABLISHING A NORTHWEST UPPER FLOW ACROSS ARKANSAS AND LEADING TO
COOLER THAN NORMAL CONDITIONS TO ROUND OUT JULY.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE RIGHT AROUND NORMAL ON SUNDAY...WITH LOW TO MID
90S FORECAST STATEWIDE. DEVELOPING NW UPPER FLOW ALOFT AND
SUPPORTING UPPER TROUGH OVER ERN CONUS WILL DRIVE A FRONT INTO THE
STATE SOMETIME SUNDAY...MOST LIKELY SUN EVENING. RIGHT NOW MODELS
ARE NOT TOO KEEN ON PRECIP CHANCES...BUT HAVE SOME SLIGHT CHANCE
POPS IN THE NE SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING...FOLLOWED BY
BROAD-BRUSHED SLIGHT CHANCE POPS SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY MORNING.
EXPECT THERE WILL BE AT LEAST SOME ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ACCOMPANY THE FRONT. THE INCOMING AIR MASS WILL NOT BE
AS UNSEASONABLY COOL AS THE ONE FROM LATE LAST WEEK...BUT IT WILL
HAVE A PUSH FROM CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE TO OUR NORTH AND IT WILL
ALSO DEFINITELY BE DRIER AND COOLER THAN NORMAL. MOS GUIDANCE
SUPPORTS THIS SCENARIO...ALREADY SHOWING TEMPS 4-5 DEGREES BELOW
CLIMO AT DAYS 6 AND 7...A SIGNIFICANT AMOUNT GIVEN CLIMO BIAS THAT
FAR OUT. AS SUCH...BY TUE...HIGHS SHOULD TOP OUT ONLY IN THE MID 80S
FOR MOST LOCATIONS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BATESVILLE AR     91  67  84  64 /  40  10  10   0
CAMDEN AR         94  72  92  68 /  20  20  20  10
HARRISON AR       91  66  87  65 /  40  10  10   0
HOT SPRINGS AR    93  72  91  68 /  30  10  10   0
LITTLE ROCK   AR  92  72  88  67 /  30  20  10   0
MONTICELLO AR     94  71  91  67 /  20  20  20  10
MOUNT IDA AR      93  68  91  68 /  30  10  10   0
MOUNTAIN HOME AR  90  67  85  64 /  40  10  10   0
NEWPORT AR        91  67  84  64 /  40  10  10   0
PINE BLUFF AR     93  71  90  68 /  20  10  20   0
RUSSELLVILLE AR   92  71  88  67 /  40  10  10   0
SEARCY AR         91  70  86  66 /  40  10  10   0
STUTTGART AR      92  71  87  66 /  30  20  10   0
&&

.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&

$$


AVIATION...64






000
FXUS64 KLZK 231156 AAA
AFDLZK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
656 AM CDT WED JUL 23 2014

.DISCUSSION...

UPDATED FOR THE 12Z AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

&&

.AVIATION...

MODELS ARE NOT HANDLING THE EVOLUTION OF CONVECTION TO THE NORTH
OF ARKANSAS WELL AT ALL. STORMS HAVE LOOSELY FORMED ALONG A
BOUNDARY THIS MORNING...STRETCHING FROM JUST NORTH OF POPLAR BLUFF
MISSOURI OFF TO THE NORTHEAST. IT IS UNCLEAR AT THIS TIME WHETHER
THIS WILL CONTINUE TO BACK BUILD TO THE SOUTHWEST...THUS POSSIBLY
LEAVING NRN TAF SITES FREE OF CONVECTION TODAY AND AFFECTING
CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN SITES...OR WHETHER HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS
WILL EVENTUALLY BE CORRECT AND WE WILL SEE CONVECTION IN THE
NORTHWEST HALF OF THE STATE LATER ON. HAVE STAYED THE COURSE FOR
THE TIME BEING...ADVERTISING VCTS AT NRN SITES AFTER 18Z...AND
LEAVING OTHERS VOID OF ANY MENTION OF CONVECTION. CONFIDENCE IN
WHERE CONVECTION WILL EVENTUALLY OCCUR...AND HOW WIDESPREAD IT
WILL BE...IS NOT VERY HIGH AT THE MOMENT. EXPECT THERE WILL BE
STORMS AROUND THROUGH THE DAY...JUST DO NOT KNOW WHICH TERMINALS
THEY WILL AFFECT AT THIS TIME.

OTHERWISE VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH
WINDS GRADUALLY VEERING TO A NORTHERLY OR NORTHEASTERLY DIRECTION
AFTER 00Z THIS EVENING.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 333 AM CDT WED JUL 23 2014/

TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...
WEATHER WILL CONTINUE TO BE FAIRLY ACTIVE ACROSS THE REGION THIS
PERIOD AS UPPER PATTERN REMAINS HIGHLY AMPLIFIED. HIGH RES MODELS
CONTINUE TO SHOW WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION ALONG AN ADVANCING COLD
FRONT THIS MORNING BUT CURRENT RADAR/SATELLITE TRENDS HAVE YET TO
SHOW ANY DEEP CONVECTION THANKS MAINLY TO WARMER TEMPERATURES ALOFT.
WILL NOT TOTALLY DISCOUNT THESE MODELS BUT POPS HAVE BEEN LOWERED
DUE TO LACK OF ANY ACTIVITY AT THIS TIME.

LATEST MOISTURE CHANNEL IMAGERY SHOWS THE MAJOR PLAYERS QUITE
CLEARLY THIS MORNING. SPRAWLING UPPER LEVEL RIDGE REMAINS CENTERED
OVER COLORADO WITH ANOTHER ANTI-CYCLONE OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC.
IN BETWEEN THESE HIGHS IS EASTERN CONUS TROUGHING WITH WEAK UPPER
LOW THAT WILL MEANDER AROUND THE GULF COAST WITH A MUCH STRONGER
UPPER LOW JUST NOW APPROACHING THE WASHINGTON STATE COAST. UPPER LOW
WILL FLATTEN THE WESTERN RIDGE JUST ENOUGH TO ALLOW THE PREVIOUSLY
MENTIONED COLD FRONT...CURRENTLY OVER SOUTHERN MISSOURI...TO MOVE TO
THE SOUTH.

FRONT IS EXPECTED TO PASS THROUGH THE STATE TODAY WITH ONLY SLIGHT
CHANCE TO LOW END CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION. AFTER ANOTHER HOT DAY
TODAY...THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO STALL OVER THE SOUTHWEST ON
THURSDAY WHICH WILL BRING A BRIEF BREAK FROM THE SUMMER HEAT AND
HUMIDITY. BOUNDARY WILL LIFT BACK TO THE NORTH ON FRIDAY AS WESTERN
RIDGE EXPANDS TO THE EAST WITH A RETURN TO MORE TYPICAL SUMMER
WEATHER. UPPER RIDGE WILL THEN DOMINATE THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
PERIOD WITH A CONTINUATION OF HOT AND GENERALLY DRY CONDITIONS.

LONG TERM...SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY
FOR SEVERAL DAYS NOW THE MODELS HAVE BEEN HINTING AT A PATTERN
CHANGE AS WE HEAD INTO THE WEEKEND...AND THIS CONTINUES TO BE THE
CASE THIS MORNING. AN UPPER LOW...SET TO MOVE ONSHORE IN THE PAC NW
TODAY...WILL HAVE CONTRIBUTED TO A LARGE UPPER TROUGH CARVING OUT A
PLACE ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION BY SUNDAY EVENING. UPPER LEVEL
FLOW WILL FURTHER AMPLIFY HEADING INTO NEXT WEEK...FIRMLY
ESTABLISHING A NORTHWEST UPPER FLOW ACROSS ARKANSAS AND LEADING TO
COOLER THAN NORMAL CONDITIONS TO ROUND OUT JULY.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE RIGHT AROUND NORMAL ON SUNDAY...WITH LOW TO MID
90S FORECAST STATEWIDE. DEVELOPING NW UPPER FLOW ALOFT AND
SUPPORTING UPPER TROUGH OVER ERN CONUS WILL DRIVE A FRONT INTO THE
STATE SOMETIME SUNDAY...MOST LIKELY SUN EVENING. RIGHT NOW MODELS
ARE NOT TOO KEEN ON PRECIP CHANCES...BUT HAVE SOME SLIGHT CHANCE
POPS IN THE NE SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING...FOLLOWED BY
BROAD-BRUSHED SLIGHT CHANCE POPS SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY MORNING.
EXPECT THERE WILL BE AT LEAST SOME ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ACCOMPANY THE FRONT. THE INCOMING AIR MASS WILL NOT BE
AS UNSEASONABLY COOL AS THE ONE FROM LATE LAST WEEK...BUT IT WILL
HAVE A PUSH FROM CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE TO OUR NORTH AND IT WILL
ALSO DEFINITELY BE DRIER AND COOLER THAN NORMAL. MOS GUIDANCE
SUPPORTS THIS SCENARIO...ALREADY SHOWING TEMPS 4-5 DEGREES BELOW
CLIMO AT DAYS 6 AND 7...A SIGNIFICANT AMOUNT GIVEN CLIMO BIAS THAT
FAR OUT. AS SUCH...BY TUE...HIGHS SHOULD TOP OUT ONLY IN THE MID 80S
FOR MOST LOCATIONS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BATESVILLE AR     91  67  84  64 /  40  10  10   0
CAMDEN AR         94  72  92  68 /  20  20  20  10
HARRISON AR       91  66  87  65 /  40  10  10   0
HOT SPRINGS AR    93  72  91  68 /  30  10  10   0
LITTLE ROCK   AR  92  72  88  67 /  30  20  10   0
MONTICELLO AR     94  71  91  67 /  20  20  20  10
MOUNT IDA AR      93  68  91  68 /  30  10  10   0
MOUNTAIN HOME AR  90  67  85  64 /  40  10  10   0
NEWPORT AR        91  67  84  64 /  40  10  10   0
PINE BLUFF AR     93  71  90  68 /  20  10  20   0
RUSSELLVILLE AR   92  71  88  67 /  40  10  10   0
SEARCY AR         91  70  86  66 /  40  10  10   0
STUTTGART AR      92  71  87  66 /  30  20  10   0
&&

.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&

$$


AVIATION...64







000
FXUS64 KLZK 230835
AFDLZK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
333 AM CDT WED JUL 23 2014

.TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...
WEATHER WILL CONTINUE TO BE FAIRLY ACTIVE ACROSS THE REGION THIS
PERIOD AS UPPER PATTERN REMAINS HIGHLY AMPLIFIED. HIGH RES MODELS
CONTINUE TO SHOW WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION ALONG AN ADVANCING COLD
FRONTTHIS MORNING BUT CURRENT RADAR/SATELLITE TRENDS HAVE YET TO
SHOW ANY DEEP CONVECTION THANKS MAINLY TO WARMER TEMPERATURES ALOFT.
WILL NOT TOTALLY DISCOUNT THESE MODELS BUT POPS HAVE BEEN LOWERED
DUE TO LACK OF ANY ACTIVITY AT THIS TIME.

LATEST MOISTURE CHANNEL IMAGERY SHOWS THE MAJOR PLAYERS QUITE
CLEARLY THIS MORNING. SPRAWLING UPPER LEVEL RIDGE REMAINS CENTERED
OVER COLORADO WITH ANOTHER ANTI-CYCLONE OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC.
IN BETWEEN THESE HIGHS IS EASTERN CONUS TROUGHING WITH WEAK UPPER
LOW THAT WILL MEANDER AROUND THE GULF COAST WITH A MUCH STRONGER
UPPER LOW JUST NOW APPROACHING THE WASHINGTON STATE COAST. UPPER LOW
WILL FLATTEN THE WESTERN RIDGE JUST ENOUGH TO ALLOW THE PREVIOUSLY
MENTIONED COLD FRONT...CURRENTLY OVER SOUTHERN MISSOURI...TO MOVE TO
THE SOUTH.

FRONT IS EXPECTED TO PASS THROUGH THE STATE TODAY WITH ONLY SLIGHT
CHANCE TO LOW END CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION. AFTER ANOTHER HOT DAY
TODAY...THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO STALL OVER THE SOUTHWEST ON
THURSDAY WHICH WILL BRING A BRIEF BREAK FROM THE SUMMER HEAT AND
HUMIDITY. BOUNDARY WILL LIFT BACK TO THE NORTH ON FRIDAY AS WESTERN
RIDGE EXPANDS TO THE EAST WITH A RETURN TO MORE TYPICAL SUMMER
WEATHER. UPPER RIDGE WILL THEN DOMINATE THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
PERIOD WITH A CONTINUATION OF HOT AND GENERALLY DRY CONDITIONS.
&&

.LONG TERM...SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY
FOR SEVERAL DAYS NOW THE MODELS HAVE BEEN HINTING AT A PATTERN
CHANGE AS WE HEAD INTO THE WEEKEND...AND THIS CONTINUES TO BE THE
CASE THIS MORNING. AN UPPER LOW...SET TO MOVE ONSHORE IN THE PAC NW
TODAY...WILL HAVE CONTRIBUTED TO A LARGE UPPER TROUGH CARVING OUT A
PLACE ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION BY SUNDAY EVENING. UPPER LEVEL
FLOW WILL FURTHER AMPLIFY HEADING INTO NEXT WEEK...FIRMLY
ESTABLISHING A NORTHWEST UPPER FLOW ACROSS ARKANSAS AND LEADING TO
COOLER THAN NORMAL CONDITIONS TO ROUND OUT JULY.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE RIGHT AROUND NORMAL ON SUNDAY...WITH LOW TO MID
90S FORECAST STATEWIDE. DEVELOPING NW UPPER FLOW ALOFT AND
SUPPORTING UPPER TROUGH OVER ERN CONUS WILL DRIVE A FRONT INTO THE
STATE SOMETIME SUNDAY...MOST LIKELY SUN EVENING. RIGHT NOW MODELS
ARE NOT TOO KEEN ON PRECIP CHANCES...BUT HAVE SOME SLIGHT CHANCE
POPS IN THE NE SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING...FOLLOWED BY
BROAD-BRUSHED SLIGHT CHANCE POPS SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY MORNING.
EXPECT THERE WILL BE AT LEAST SOME ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ACCOMPANY THE FRONT. THE INCOMING AIR MASS WILL NOT BE
AS UNSEASONABLY COOL AS THE ONE FROM LATE LAST WEEK...BUT IT WILL
HAVE A PUSH FROM CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE TO OUR NORTH AND IT WILL
ALSO DEFINITELY BE DRIER AND COOLER THAN NORMAL. MOS GUIDANCE
SUPPORTS THIS SCENARIO...ALREADY SHOWING TEMPS 4-5 DEGREES BELOW
CLIMO AT DAYS 6 AND 7...A SIGNIFICANT AMOUNT GIVEN CLIMO BIAS THAT
FAR OUT. AS SUCH...BY TUE...HIGHS SHOULD TOP OUT ONLY IN THE MID 80S
FOR MOST LOCATIONS.
&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BATESVILLE AR     91  67  84  64 /  40  10  10   0
CAMDEN AR         94  72  92  68 /  20  20  20  10
HARRISON AR       91  66  87  65 /  40  10  10   0
HOT SPRINGS AR    93  72  91  68 /  30  10  10   0
LITTLE ROCK   AR  92  72  88  67 /  30  20  10   0
MONTICELLO AR     94  71  91  67 /  20  20  20  10
MOUNT IDA AR      93  68  91  68 /  30  10  10   0
MOUNTAIN HOME AR  90  67  85  64 /  40  10  10   0
NEWPORT AR        91  67  84  64 /  40  10  10   0
PINE BLUFF AR     93  71  90  68 /  20  10  20   0
RUSSELLVILLE AR   92  71  88  67 /  40  10  10   0
SEARCY AR         91  70  86  66 /  40  10  10   0
STUTTGART AR      92  71  87  66 /  30  20  10   0
&&

.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...56 / LONG TERM...64





000
FXUS64 KLZK 230835
AFDLZK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
333 AM CDT WED JUL 23 2014

.TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...
WEATHER WILL CONTINUE TO BE FAIRLY ACTIVE ACROSS THE REGION THIS
PERIOD AS UPPER PATTERN REMAINS HIGHLY AMPLIFIED. HIGH RES MODELS
CONTINUE TO SHOW WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION ALONG AN ADVANCING COLD
FRONTTHIS MORNING BUT CURRENT RADAR/SATELLITE TRENDS HAVE YET TO
SHOW ANY DEEP CONVECTION THANKS MAINLY TO WARMER TEMPERATURES ALOFT.
WILL NOT TOTALLY DISCOUNT THESE MODELS BUT POPS HAVE BEEN LOWERED
DUE TO LACK OF ANY ACTIVITY AT THIS TIME.

LATEST MOISTURE CHANNEL IMAGERY SHOWS THE MAJOR PLAYERS QUITE
CLEARLY THIS MORNING. SPRAWLING UPPER LEVEL RIDGE REMAINS CENTERED
OVER COLORADO WITH ANOTHER ANTI-CYCLONE OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC.
IN BETWEEN THESE HIGHS IS EASTERN CONUS TROUGHING WITH WEAK UPPER
LOW THAT WILL MEANDER AROUND THE GULF COAST WITH A MUCH STRONGER
UPPER LOW JUST NOW APPROACHING THE WASHINGTON STATE COAST. UPPER LOW
WILL FLATTEN THE WESTERN RIDGE JUST ENOUGH TO ALLOW THE PREVIOUSLY
MENTIONED COLD FRONT...CURRENTLY OVER SOUTHERN MISSOURI...TO MOVE TO
THE SOUTH.

FRONT IS EXPECTED TO PASS THROUGH THE STATE TODAY WITH ONLY SLIGHT
CHANCE TO LOW END CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION. AFTER ANOTHER HOT DAY
TODAY...THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO STALL OVER THE SOUTHWEST ON
THURSDAY WHICH WILL BRING A BRIEF BREAK FROM THE SUMMER HEAT AND
HUMIDITY. BOUNDARY WILL LIFT BACK TO THE NORTH ON FRIDAY AS WESTERN
RIDGE EXPANDS TO THE EAST WITH A RETURN TO MORE TYPICAL SUMMER
WEATHER. UPPER RIDGE WILL THEN DOMINATE THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
PERIOD WITH A CONTINUATION OF HOT AND GENERALLY DRY CONDITIONS.
&&

.LONG TERM...SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY
FOR SEVERAL DAYS NOW THE MODELS HAVE BEEN HINTING AT A PATTERN
CHANGE AS WE HEAD INTO THE WEEKEND...AND THIS CONTINUES TO BE THE
CASE THIS MORNING. AN UPPER LOW...SET TO MOVE ONSHORE IN THE PAC NW
TODAY...WILL HAVE CONTRIBUTED TO A LARGE UPPER TROUGH CARVING OUT A
PLACE ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION BY SUNDAY EVENING. UPPER LEVEL
FLOW WILL FURTHER AMPLIFY HEADING INTO NEXT WEEK...FIRMLY
ESTABLISHING A NORTHWEST UPPER FLOW ACROSS ARKANSAS AND LEADING TO
COOLER THAN NORMAL CONDITIONS TO ROUND OUT JULY.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE RIGHT AROUND NORMAL ON SUNDAY...WITH LOW TO MID
90S FORECAST STATEWIDE. DEVELOPING NW UPPER FLOW ALOFT AND
SUPPORTING UPPER TROUGH OVER ERN CONUS WILL DRIVE A FRONT INTO THE
STATE SOMETIME SUNDAY...MOST LIKELY SUN EVENING. RIGHT NOW MODELS
ARE NOT TOO KEEN ON PRECIP CHANCES...BUT HAVE SOME SLIGHT CHANCE
POPS IN THE NE SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING...FOLLOWED BY
BROAD-BRUSHED SLIGHT CHANCE POPS SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY MORNING.
EXPECT THERE WILL BE AT LEAST SOME ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ACCOMPANY THE FRONT. THE INCOMING AIR MASS WILL NOT BE
AS UNSEASONABLY COOL AS THE ONE FROM LATE LAST WEEK...BUT IT WILL
HAVE A PUSH FROM CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE TO OUR NORTH AND IT WILL
ALSO DEFINITELY BE DRIER AND COOLER THAN NORMAL. MOS GUIDANCE
SUPPORTS THIS SCENARIO...ALREADY SHOWING TEMPS 4-5 DEGREES BELOW
CLIMO AT DAYS 6 AND 7...A SIGNIFICANT AMOUNT GIVEN CLIMO BIAS THAT
FAR OUT. AS SUCH...BY TUE...HIGHS SHOULD TOP OUT ONLY IN THE MID 80S
FOR MOST LOCATIONS.
&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BATESVILLE AR     91  67  84  64 /  40  10  10   0
CAMDEN AR         94  72  92  68 /  20  20  20  10
HARRISON AR       91  66  87  65 /  40  10  10   0
HOT SPRINGS AR    93  72  91  68 /  30  10  10   0
LITTLE ROCK   AR  92  72  88  67 /  30  20  10   0
MONTICELLO AR     94  71  91  67 /  20  20  20  10
MOUNT IDA AR      93  68  91  68 /  30  10  10   0
MOUNTAIN HOME AR  90  67  85  64 /  40  10  10   0
NEWPORT AR        91  67  84  64 /  40  10  10   0
PINE BLUFF AR     93  71  90  68 /  20  10  20   0
RUSSELLVILLE AR   92  71  88  67 /  40  10  10   0
SEARCY AR         91  70  86  66 /  40  10  10   0
STUTTGART AR      92  71  87  66 /  30  20  10   0
&&

.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...56 / LONG TERM...64





000
FXUS64 KLZK 230835
AFDLZK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
333 AM CDT WED JUL 23 2014

.TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...
WEATHER WILL CONTINUE TO BE FAIRLY ACTIVE ACROSS THE REGION THIS
PERIOD AS UPPER PATTERN REMAINS HIGHLY AMPLIFIED. HIGH RES MODELS
CONTINUE TO SHOW WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION ALONG AN ADVANCING COLD
FRONTTHIS MORNING BUT CURRENT RADAR/SATELLITE TRENDS HAVE YET TO
SHOW ANY DEEP CONVECTION THANKS MAINLY TO WARMER TEMPERATURES ALOFT.
WILL NOT TOTALLY DISCOUNT THESE MODELS BUT POPS HAVE BEEN LOWERED
DUE TO LACK OF ANY ACTIVITY AT THIS TIME.

LATEST MOISTURE CHANNEL IMAGERY SHOWS THE MAJOR PLAYERS QUITE
CLEARLY THIS MORNING. SPRAWLING UPPER LEVEL RIDGE REMAINS CENTERED
OVER COLORADO WITH ANOTHER ANTI-CYCLONE OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC.
IN BETWEEN THESE HIGHS IS EASTERN CONUS TROUGHING WITH WEAK UPPER
LOW THAT WILL MEANDER AROUND THE GULF COAST WITH A MUCH STRONGER
UPPER LOW JUST NOW APPROACHING THE WASHINGTON STATE COAST. UPPER LOW
WILL FLATTEN THE WESTERN RIDGE JUST ENOUGH TO ALLOW THE PREVIOUSLY
MENTIONED COLD FRONT...CURRENTLY OVER SOUTHERN MISSOURI...TO MOVE TO
THE SOUTH.

FRONT IS EXPECTED TO PASS THROUGH THE STATE TODAY WITH ONLY SLIGHT
CHANCE TO LOW END CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION. AFTER ANOTHER HOT DAY
TODAY...THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO STALL OVER THE SOUTHWEST ON
THURSDAY WHICH WILL BRING A BRIEF BREAK FROM THE SUMMER HEAT AND
HUMIDITY. BOUNDARY WILL LIFT BACK TO THE NORTH ON FRIDAY AS WESTERN
RIDGE EXPANDS TO THE EAST WITH A RETURN TO MORE TYPICAL SUMMER
WEATHER. UPPER RIDGE WILL THEN DOMINATE THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
PERIOD WITH A CONTINUATION OF HOT AND GENERALLY DRY CONDITIONS.
&&

.LONG TERM...SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY
FOR SEVERAL DAYS NOW THE MODELS HAVE BEEN HINTING AT A PATTERN
CHANGE AS WE HEAD INTO THE WEEKEND...AND THIS CONTINUES TO BE THE
CASE THIS MORNING. AN UPPER LOW...SET TO MOVE ONSHORE IN THE PAC NW
TODAY...WILL HAVE CONTRIBUTED TO A LARGE UPPER TROUGH CARVING OUT A
PLACE ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION BY SUNDAY EVENING. UPPER LEVEL
FLOW WILL FURTHER AMPLIFY HEADING INTO NEXT WEEK...FIRMLY
ESTABLISHING A NORTHWEST UPPER FLOW ACROSS ARKANSAS AND LEADING TO
COOLER THAN NORMAL CONDITIONS TO ROUND OUT JULY.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE RIGHT AROUND NORMAL ON SUNDAY...WITH LOW TO MID
90S FORECAST STATEWIDE. DEVELOPING NW UPPER FLOW ALOFT AND
SUPPORTING UPPER TROUGH OVER ERN CONUS WILL DRIVE A FRONT INTO THE
STATE SOMETIME SUNDAY...MOST LIKELY SUN EVENING. RIGHT NOW MODELS
ARE NOT TOO KEEN ON PRECIP CHANCES...BUT HAVE SOME SLIGHT CHANCE
POPS IN THE NE SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING...FOLLOWED BY
BROAD-BRUSHED SLIGHT CHANCE POPS SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY MORNING.
EXPECT THERE WILL BE AT LEAST SOME ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ACCOMPANY THE FRONT. THE INCOMING AIR MASS WILL NOT BE
AS UNSEASONABLY COOL AS THE ONE FROM LATE LAST WEEK...BUT IT WILL
HAVE A PUSH FROM CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE TO OUR NORTH AND IT WILL
ALSO DEFINITELY BE DRIER AND COOLER THAN NORMAL. MOS GUIDANCE
SUPPORTS THIS SCENARIO...ALREADY SHOWING TEMPS 4-5 DEGREES BELOW
CLIMO AT DAYS 6 AND 7...A SIGNIFICANT AMOUNT GIVEN CLIMO BIAS THAT
FAR OUT. AS SUCH...BY TUE...HIGHS SHOULD TOP OUT ONLY IN THE MID 80S
FOR MOST LOCATIONS.
&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BATESVILLE AR     91  67  84  64 /  40  10  10   0
CAMDEN AR         94  72  92  68 /  20  20  20  10
HARRISON AR       91  66  87  65 /  40  10  10   0
HOT SPRINGS AR    93  72  91  68 /  30  10  10   0
LITTLE ROCK   AR  92  72  88  67 /  30  20  10   0
MONTICELLO AR     94  71  91  67 /  20  20  20  10
MOUNT IDA AR      93  68  91  68 /  30  10  10   0
MOUNTAIN HOME AR  90  67  85  64 /  40  10  10   0
NEWPORT AR        91  67  84  64 /  40  10  10   0
PINE BLUFF AR     93  71  90  68 /  20  10  20   0
RUSSELLVILLE AR   92  71  88  67 /  40  10  10   0
SEARCY AR         91  70  86  66 /  40  10  10   0
STUTTGART AR      92  71  87  66 /  30  20  10   0
&&

.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...56 / LONG TERM...64





000
FXUS64 KLZK 230835
AFDLZK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
333 AM CDT WED JUL 23 2014

.TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...
WEATHER WILL CONTINUE TO BE FAIRLY ACTIVE ACROSS THE REGION THIS
PERIOD AS UPPER PATTERN REMAINS HIGHLY AMPLIFIED. HIGH RES MODELS
CONTINUE TO SHOW WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION ALONG AN ADVANCING COLD
FRONTTHIS MORNING BUT CURRENT RADAR/SATELLITE TRENDS HAVE YET TO
SHOW ANY DEEP CONVECTION THANKS MAINLY TO WARMER TEMPERATURES ALOFT.
WILL NOT TOTALLY DISCOUNT THESE MODELS BUT POPS HAVE BEEN LOWERED
DUE TO LACK OF ANY ACTIVITY AT THIS TIME.

LATEST MOISTURE CHANNEL IMAGERY SHOWS THE MAJOR PLAYERS QUITE
CLEARLY THIS MORNING. SPRAWLING UPPER LEVEL RIDGE REMAINS CENTERED
OVER COLORADO WITH ANOTHER ANTI-CYCLONE OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC.
IN BETWEEN THESE HIGHS IS EASTERN CONUS TROUGHING WITH WEAK UPPER
LOW THAT WILL MEANDER AROUND THE GULF COAST WITH A MUCH STRONGER
UPPER LOW JUST NOW APPROACHING THE WASHINGTON STATE COAST. UPPER LOW
WILL FLATTEN THE WESTERN RIDGE JUST ENOUGH TO ALLOW THE PREVIOUSLY
MENTIONED COLD FRONT...CURRENTLY OVER SOUTHERN MISSOURI...TO MOVE TO
THE SOUTH.

FRONT IS EXPECTED TO PASS THROUGH THE STATE TODAY WITH ONLY SLIGHT
CHANCE TO LOW END CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION. AFTER ANOTHER HOT DAY
TODAY...THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO STALL OVER THE SOUTHWEST ON
THURSDAY WHICH WILL BRING A BRIEF BREAK FROM THE SUMMER HEAT AND
HUMIDITY. BOUNDARY WILL LIFT BACK TO THE NORTH ON FRIDAY AS WESTERN
RIDGE EXPANDS TO THE EAST WITH A RETURN TO MORE TYPICAL SUMMER
WEATHER. UPPER RIDGE WILL THEN DOMINATE THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
PERIOD WITH A CONTINUATION OF HOT AND GENERALLY DRY CONDITIONS.
&&

.LONG TERM...SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY
FOR SEVERAL DAYS NOW THE MODELS HAVE BEEN HINTING AT A PATTERN
CHANGE AS WE HEAD INTO THE WEEKEND...AND THIS CONTINUES TO BE THE
CASE THIS MORNING. AN UPPER LOW...SET TO MOVE ONSHORE IN THE PAC NW
TODAY...WILL HAVE CONTRIBUTED TO A LARGE UPPER TROUGH CARVING OUT A
PLACE ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION BY SUNDAY EVENING. UPPER LEVEL
FLOW WILL FURTHER AMPLIFY HEADING INTO NEXT WEEK...FIRMLY
ESTABLISHING A NORTHWEST UPPER FLOW ACROSS ARKANSAS AND LEADING TO
COOLER THAN NORMAL CONDITIONS TO ROUND OUT JULY.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE RIGHT AROUND NORMAL ON SUNDAY...WITH LOW TO MID
90S FORECAST STATEWIDE. DEVELOPING NW UPPER FLOW ALOFT AND
SUPPORTING UPPER TROUGH OVER ERN CONUS WILL DRIVE A FRONT INTO THE
STATE SOMETIME SUNDAY...MOST LIKELY SUN EVENING. RIGHT NOW MODELS
ARE NOT TOO KEEN ON PRECIP CHANCES...BUT HAVE SOME SLIGHT CHANCE
POPS IN THE NE SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING...FOLLOWED BY
BROAD-BRUSHED SLIGHT CHANCE POPS SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY MORNING.
EXPECT THERE WILL BE AT LEAST SOME ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ACCOMPANY THE FRONT. THE INCOMING AIR MASS WILL NOT BE
AS UNSEASONABLY COOL AS THE ONE FROM LATE LAST WEEK...BUT IT WILL
HAVE A PUSH FROM CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE TO OUR NORTH AND IT WILL
ALSO DEFINITELY BE DRIER AND COOLER THAN NORMAL. MOS GUIDANCE
SUPPORTS THIS SCENARIO...ALREADY SHOWING TEMPS 4-5 DEGREES BELOW
CLIMO AT DAYS 6 AND 7...A SIGNIFICANT AMOUNT GIVEN CLIMO BIAS THAT
FAR OUT. AS SUCH...BY TUE...HIGHS SHOULD TOP OUT ONLY IN THE MID 80S
FOR MOST LOCATIONS.
&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BATESVILLE AR     91  67  84  64 /  40  10  10   0
CAMDEN AR         94  72  92  68 /  20  20  20  10
HARRISON AR       91  66  87  65 /  40  10  10   0
HOT SPRINGS AR    93  72  91  68 /  30  10  10   0
LITTLE ROCK   AR  92  72  88  67 /  30  20  10   0
MONTICELLO AR     94  71  91  67 /  20  20  20  10
MOUNT IDA AR      93  68  91  68 /  30  10  10   0
MOUNTAIN HOME AR  90  67  85  64 /  40  10  10   0
NEWPORT AR        91  67  84  64 /  40  10  10   0
PINE BLUFF AR     93  71  90  68 /  20  10  20   0
RUSSELLVILLE AR   92  71  88  67 /  40  10  10   0
SEARCY AR         91  70  86  66 /  40  10  10   0
STUTTGART AR      92  71  87  66 /  30  20  10   0
&&

.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...56 / LONG TERM...64





000
FXUS64 KLZK 230602 AAA
AFDLZK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
102 AM CDT WED JUL 23 2014

.DISCUSSION...

UPDATED FOR THE 06Z AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

&&

.AVIATION...

HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW CONVECTION DEVELOPING IN
MISSOURI THEN DIVING SOUTHWEST ACROSS THE NORTHWEST HALF OF
ARKANSAS THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. HOWEVER...REGIONAL RADAR
AND SATELLITE OBSERVATIONS SHOW NOTHING OF THE SORT. AS
SUCH...HAVE PULLED ANY MENTION OF SHRA/TSRA FROM ALL SITES EXCEPT
KHRO AND KBPK. THOSE APPEAR THE MOST LIKELY TO BE AFFECTED BY
ANYTHING DEVELOPING BEFORE DAYBREAK. LATER TODAY...EXPECT THERE
WILL BE SOME SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE STATE...BUT
SUSPECT THEY WILL BE MORE ISOLATED...THUS THE REASON FOR REMOVING
THEM FROM TAFS FOR THE TIME BEING. WILL WATCH RADAR/SATELLITE
THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS AND AMEND IF NECESSARY BEFORE THE 12Z
ISSUANCE. OTHERWISE...HAVE SOME PATCHY FOG IN AT MANY SITES THIS
MORNING. DO NOT EXPECT ANY DENSE FOG...AND WHATEVER FORMS WILL
DISSIPATE QUICKLY AFTER SUNRISE.

&&


PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 302 PM CDT TUE JUL 22 2014/

SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT
THE NEAR TERM PATTERN WILL FEATURE A RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE OVER THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN ROCKIES AND
CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PLAINS. EAST OF THE RIDGE...A
TROUGH WILL EXIST EAST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER.

THE RIDGE WILL BE FAR ENOUGH TO THE WEST TO ALLOW A COLD
FRONT TO MOVE INTO ARKANSAS FROM THE NORTH ON WEDNESDAY.
THE FRONT WILL HAVE NO PROBLEM PUSHING THROUGH AREAS
EAST OF THE STATE WHERE TROUGHING EXISTS. IT APPEARS
THE FRONT MAY MAKE IT INTO LOUISIANA BEFORE STALLING
ON THURSDAY.

THE FRONT WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. PRECIPITATION WILL BE POSSIBLE NORTH OF
LITTLE ROCK TONIGHT...AND IN AREAS FARTHER SOUTH AS THE
FRONT PASSES BY. ANY SEVERE WEATHER WILL BE ISOLATED.
WHILE LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS ARE EXPECTED...WIDESPREAD
HEAVY RAIN IS NOT IN THE FORECAST.

IT WILL COOL OFF BRIEFLY BEHIND THE FRONT ON THURSDAY.
THE FRONT WILL MOVE BACK TO THE NORTH ON FRIDAY...WITH
SUMMERLIKE CONDITIONS RETURNING.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE CLOSE TO NORMAL WEDNESDAY AND
FRIDAY...AND BELOW NORMAL THURSDAY.

LONG TERM...SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY
PERIOD WILL INITIATE WITH A LARGE UPPER TROUGH DIGGING INTO THE
GREAT LAKES REGION WITH A BROADENING RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE
DESERT SOUTHWEST. ARKANSAS WILL REMAIN SANDWICHED BETWEEN THE
TWO...CREATING NORTHWEST FLOW AND ALLOWING SEVERAL PIECES OF
SHORTWAVE ENERGY TO PASS THROUGH THE REGION WITH AT LEAST A CHANCE
OF ISOLATED CONVECTION DAILY. ON SUNDAY A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL PASS
THROUGH AND GIVE US THE BEST CHANCE OF PRECIP. RAIN COOLED AIR WILL
DROP TEMPS BACK DOWN BELOW SEASONAL NORMALS MON/TUES...WITH HIGHS
BACK IN THE 80S AND LOWS IN THE 60S.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BATESVILLE AR     91  67  85  66 /  40  30  10  10
CAMDEN AR         93  72  93  70 /  20  30  30  10
HARRISON AR       90  66  86  67 /  40  20  10   0
HOT SPRINGS AR    92  72  91  71 /  30  40  20  10
LITTLE ROCK   AR  92  72  89  70 /  30  40  20  10
MONTICELLO AR     92  71  93  70 /  20  30  30  10
MOUNT IDA AR      92  68  91  69 /  30  30  20  10
MOUNTAIN HOME AR  92  67  86  65 /  50  20  10  10
NEWPORT AR        91  67  85  66 /  40  30  10  10
PINE BLUFF AR     92  71  89  70 /  20  40  30  10
RUSSELLVILLE AR   93  71  91  69 /  40  30  10  10
SEARCY AR         91  70  85  67 /  40  40  20  10
STUTTGART AR      91  71  86  69 /  30  40  20  10
&&

.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&

$$


AVIATION...64






000
FXUS64 KLZK 230602 AAA
AFDLZK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
102 AM CDT WED JUL 23 2014

.DISCUSSION...

UPDATED FOR THE 06Z AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

&&

.AVIATION...

HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW CONVECTION DEVELOPING IN
MISSOURI THEN DIVING SOUTHWEST ACROSS THE NORTHWEST HALF OF
ARKANSAS THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. HOWEVER...REGIONAL RADAR
AND SATELLITE OBSERVATIONS SHOW NOTHING OF THE SORT. AS
SUCH...HAVE PULLED ANY MENTION OF SHRA/TSRA FROM ALL SITES EXCEPT
KHRO AND KBPK. THOSE APPEAR THE MOST LIKELY TO BE AFFECTED BY
ANYTHING DEVELOPING BEFORE DAYBREAK. LATER TODAY...EXPECT THERE
WILL BE SOME SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE STATE...BUT
SUSPECT THEY WILL BE MORE ISOLATED...THUS THE REASON FOR REMOVING
THEM FROM TAFS FOR THE TIME BEING. WILL WATCH RADAR/SATELLITE
THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS AND AMEND IF NECESSARY BEFORE THE 12Z
ISSUANCE. OTHERWISE...HAVE SOME PATCHY FOG IN AT MANY SITES THIS
MORNING. DO NOT EXPECT ANY DENSE FOG...AND WHATEVER FORMS WILL
DISSIPATE QUICKLY AFTER SUNRISE.

&&


PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 302 PM CDT TUE JUL 22 2014/

SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT
THE NEAR TERM PATTERN WILL FEATURE A RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE OVER THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN ROCKIES AND
CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PLAINS. EAST OF THE RIDGE...A
TROUGH WILL EXIST EAST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER.

THE RIDGE WILL BE FAR ENOUGH TO THE WEST TO ALLOW A COLD
FRONT TO MOVE INTO ARKANSAS FROM THE NORTH ON WEDNESDAY.
THE FRONT WILL HAVE NO PROBLEM PUSHING THROUGH AREAS
EAST OF THE STATE WHERE TROUGHING EXISTS. IT APPEARS
THE FRONT MAY MAKE IT INTO LOUISIANA BEFORE STALLING
ON THURSDAY.

THE FRONT WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. PRECIPITATION WILL BE POSSIBLE NORTH OF
LITTLE ROCK TONIGHT...AND IN AREAS FARTHER SOUTH AS THE
FRONT PASSES BY. ANY SEVERE WEATHER WILL BE ISOLATED.
WHILE LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS ARE EXPECTED...WIDESPREAD
HEAVY RAIN IS NOT IN THE FORECAST.

IT WILL COOL OFF BRIEFLY BEHIND THE FRONT ON THURSDAY.
THE FRONT WILL MOVE BACK TO THE NORTH ON FRIDAY...WITH
SUMMERLIKE CONDITIONS RETURNING.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE CLOSE TO NORMAL WEDNESDAY AND
FRIDAY...AND BELOW NORMAL THURSDAY.

LONG TERM...SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY
PERIOD WILL INITIATE WITH A LARGE UPPER TROUGH DIGGING INTO THE
GREAT LAKES REGION WITH A BROADENING RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE
DESERT SOUTHWEST. ARKANSAS WILL REMAIN SANDWICHED BETWEEN THE
TWO...CREATING NORTHWEST FLOW AND ALLOWING SEVERAL PIECES OF
SHORTWAVE ENERGY TO PASS THROUGH THE REGION WITH AT LEAST A CHANCE
OF ISOLATED CONVECTION DAILY. ON SUNDAY A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL PASS
THROUGH AND GIVE US THE BEST CHANCE OF PRECIP. RAIN COOLED AIR WILL
DROP TEMPS BACK DOWN BELOW SEASONAL NORMALS MON/TUES...WITH HIGHS
BACK IN THE 80S AND LOWS IN THE 60S.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BATESVILLE AR     91  67  85  66 /  40  30  10  10
CAMDEN AR         93  72  93  70 /  20  30  30  10
HARRISON AR       90  66  86  67 /  40  20  10   0
HOT SPRINGS AR    92  72  91  71 /  30  40  20  10
LITTLE ROCK   AR  92  72  89  70 /  30  40  20  10
MONTICELLO AR     92  71  93  70 /  20  30  30  10
MOUNT IDA AR      92  68  91  69 /  30  30  20  10
MOUNTAIN HOME AR  92  67  86  65 /  50  20  10  10
NEWPORT AR        91  67  85  66 /  40  30  10  10
PINE BLUFF AR     92  71  89  70 /  20  40  30  10
RUSSELLVILLE AR   93  71  91  69 /  40  30  10  10
SEARCY AR         91  70  85  67 /  40  40  20  10
STUTTGART AR      91  71  86  69 /  30  40  20  10
&&

.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&

$$


AVIATION...64







000
FXUS64 KLZK 222336
AFDLZK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
636 PM CDT TUE JUL 22 2014

.AVIATION...

TONIGHT A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE STATE FROM THE NORTH AND
BRING PRECIPITATION CHANCES TO THE FORECAST ACROSS KHRO AND KBPK
AFTER 06Z. PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL LIKELY HOLD OFF ACROSS
CENTRAL ARKANSAS THROUGH MID DAY ON WEDNESDAY. AS A RESULT...ONCE
AGAIN COULD SEE SOME PATCHY FOG ACROSS PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AND
SOUTHERN ARKANSAS WITH MAINLY MVFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED.
PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL DIMINISH BEFORE THE END OF THE TAF
PERIOD FOR ALL LOCATIONS EXCEPT KPBF AND KLLQ.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 302 PM CDT TUE JUL 22 2014/

SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT
THE NEAR TERM PATTERN WILL FEATURE A RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE OVER THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN ROCKIES AND
CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PLAINS. EAST OF THE RIDGE...A
TROUGH WILL EXIST EAST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER.

THE RIDGE WILL BE FAR ENOUGH TO THE WEST TO ALLOW A COLD
FRONT TO MOVE INTO ARKANSAS FROM THE NORTH ON WEDNESDAY.
THE FRONT WILL HAVE NO PROBLEM PUSHING THROUGH AREAS
EAST OF THE STATE WHERE TROUGHING EXISTS. IT APPEARS
THE FRONT MAY MAKE IT INTO LOUISIANA BEFORE STALLING
ON THURSDAY.

THE FRONT WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. PRECIPITATION WILL BE POSSIBLE NORTH OF
LITTLE ROCK TONIGHT...AND IN AREAS FARTHER SOUTH AS THE
FRONT PASSES BY. ANY SEVERE WEATHER WILL BE ISOLATED.
WHILE LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS ARE EXPECTED...WIDESPREAD
HEAVY RAIN IS NOT IN THE FORECAST.

IT WILL COOL OFF BRIEFLY BEHIND THE FRONT ON THURSDAY.
THE FRONT WILL MOVE BACK TO THE NORTH ON FRIDAY...WITH
SUMMERLIKE CONDITIONS RETURNING.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE CLOSE TO NORMAL WEDNESDAY AND
FRIDAY...AND BELOW NORMAL THURSDAY.

LONG TERM...SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY
PERIOD WILL INITIATE WITH A LARGE UPPER TROUGH DIGGING INTO THE
GREAT LAKES REGION WITH A BROADENING RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE
DESERT SOUTHWEST. ARKANSAS WILL REMAIN SANDWICHED BETWEEN THE
TWO...CREATING NORTHWEST FLOW AND ALLOWING SEVERAL PIECES OF
SHORTWAVE ENERGY TO PASS THROUGH THE REGION WITH AT LEAST A CHANCE
OF ISOLATED CONVECTION DAILY. ON SUNDAY A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL PASS
THROUGH AND GIVE US THE BEST CHANCE OF PRECIP. RAIN COOLED AIR WILL
DROP TEMPS BACK DOWN BELOW SEASONAL NORMALS MON/TUES...WITH HIGHS
BACK IN THE 80S AND LOWS IN THE 60S.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BATESVILLE AR     70  91  67  85 /  10  40  30  10
CAMDEN AR         71  93  72  93 /  10  20  30  30
HARRISON AR       69  90  66  86 /  20  40  20  10
HOT SPRINGS AR    70  92  72  91 /   0  30  40  20
LITTLE ROCK   AR  72  92  72  89 /   0  30  40  20
MONTICELLO AR     71  92  71  93 /  10  20  30  30
MOUNT IDA AR      68  92  68  91 /   0  30  30  20
MOUNTAIN HOME AR  70  92  67  86 /  20  50  20  10
NEWPORT AR        72  91  67  85 /  10  40  30  10
PINE BLUFF AR     72  92  71  89 /   0  20  40  30
RUSSELLVILLE AR   68  93  71  91 /  10  40  30  10
SEARCY AR         70  91  70  85 /  10  40  40  20
STUTTGART AR      72  91  71  86 /   0  30  40  20
&&

.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&

$$


AVIATION...225





000
FXUS64 KLZK 222336
AFDLZK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
636 PM CDT TUE JUL 22 2014

.AVIATION...

TONIGHT A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE STATE FROM THE NORTH AND
BRING PRECIPITATION CHANCES TO THE FORECAST ACROSS KHRO AND KBPK
AFTER 06Z. PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL LIKELY HOLD OFF ACROSS
CENTRAL ARKANSAS THROUGH MID DAY ON WEDNESDAY. AS A RESULT...ONCE
AGAIN COULD SEE SOME PATCHY FOG ACROSS PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AND
SOUTHERN ARKANSAS WITH MAINLY MVFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED.
PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL DIMINISH BEFORE THE END OF THE TAF
PERIOD FOR ALL LOCATIONS EXCEPT KPBF AND KLLQ.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 302 PM CDT TUE JUL 22 2014/

SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT
THE NEAR TERM PATTERN WILL FEATURE A RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE OVER THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN ROCKIES AND
CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PLAINS. EAST OF THE RIDGE...A
TROUGH WILL EXIST EAST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER.

THE RIDGE WILL BE FAR ENOUGH TO THE WEST TO ALLOW A COLD
FRONT TO MOVE INTO ARKANSAS FROM THE NORTH ON WEDNESDAY.
THE FRONT WILL HAVE NO PROBLEM PUSHING THROUGH AREAS
EAST OF THE STATE WHERE TROUGHING EXISTS. IT APPEARS
THE FRONT MAY MAKE IT INTO LOUISIANA BEFORE STALLING
ON THURSDAY.

THE FRONT WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. PRECIPITATION WILL BE POSSIBLE NORTH OF
LITTLE ROCK TONIGHT...AND IN AREAS FARTHER SOUTH AS THE
FRONT PASSES BY. ANY SEVERE WEATHER WILL BE ISOLATED.
WHILE LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS ARE EXPECTED...WIDESPREAD
HEAVY RAIN IS NOT IN THE FORECAST.

IT WILL COOL OFF BRIEFLY BEHIND THE FRONT ON THURSDAY.
THE FRONT WILL MOVE BACK TO THE NORTH ON FRIDAY...WITH
SUMMERLIKE CONDITIONS RETURNING.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE CLOSE TO NORMAL WEDNESDAY AND
FRIDAY...AND BELOW NORMAL THURSDAY.

LONG TERM...SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY
PERIOD WILL INITIATE WITH A LARGE UPPER TROUGH DIGGING INTO THE
GREAT LAKES REGION WITH A BROADENING RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE
DESERT SOUTHWEST. ARKANSAS WILL REMAIN SANDWICHED BETWEEN THE
TWO...CREATING NORTHWEST FLOW AND ALLOWING SEVERAL PIECES OF
SHORTWAVE ENERGY TO PASS THROUGH THE REGION WITH AT LEAST A CHANCE
OF ISOLATED CONVECTION DAILY. ON SUNDAY A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL PASS
THROUGH AND GIVE US THE BEST CHANCE OF PRECIP. RAIN COOLED AIR WILL
DROP TEMPS BACK DOWN BELOW SEASONAL NORMALS MON/TUES...WITH HIGHS
BACK IN THE 80S AND LOWS IN THE 60S.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BATESVILLE AR     70  91  67  85 /  10  40  30  10
CAMDEN AR         71  93  72  93 /  10  20  30  30
HARRISON AR       69  90  66  86 /  20  40  20  10
HOT SPRINGS AR    70  92  72  91 /   0  30  40  20
LITTLE ROCK   AR  72  92  72  89 /   0  30  40  20
MONTICELLO AR     71  92  71  93 /  10  20  30  30
MOUNT IDA AR      68  92  68  91 /   0  30  30  20
MOUNTAIN HOME AR  70  92  67  86 /  20  50  20  10
NEWPORT AR        72  91  67  85 /  10  40  30  10
PINE BLUFF AR     72  92  71  89 /   0  20  40  30
RUSSELLVILLE AR   68  93  71  91 /  10  40  30  10
SEARCY AR         70  91  70  85 /  10  40  40  20
STUTTGART AR      72  91  71  86 /   0  30  40  20
&&

.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&

$$


AVIATION...225






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