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000
FXUS64 KLZK 081150 AAA
AFDLZK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
550 AM CST MON FEB 8 2016

.DISCUSSION...

UPDATED FOR THE 12Z AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

&&

.AVIATION...

THE MAIN CONCERN FOR THE 12Z TAF PERIOD WILL BE THE GUSTY
NORTHWEST WINDS. PERSISTENT GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS WILL EXIST
THROUGH AT LEAST 00Z FOR ALL TERMINALS. HAVE GUSTS TO ALMOST 30KT
IN AT ALL SITES BY MID MORNING. WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE SOME
GUSTS ABOVE 30KT...BUT EXPECT THOSE TO BE INFREQUENT. WINDS SHOULD
BEGIN TO EASE SIGNIFICANTLY AFTER SUNSET AND HAVE THIS ACCOUNTED
FOR THE IN THE FORECAST. THE ONLY CLOUDS TO SPEAK OF WILL BE SOME
BKN-OVC050 CEILINGS UP NORTH...WITH POSSIBLY SOME SCT-BKN050
BASES AS FAR SOUTH AS KLIT IN THE AFTERNOON. COULD ALSO SEE SOME
VERY LIGHT RAIN OR EVEN SNOW FLURRIES UP NORTH THIS MORNING
ALSO...BUT THESE SHOULD BE ISOLATED AND VERY BRIEF AND HAVE LEFT
THIS OUT OF THE NORTHERN TAFS AS A RESULT.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 353 AM CST MON FEB 8 2016/

SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT

MAIN CONCERNS IN THE SHORT TERM WILL BE THE WINDS TODAY...AND THE
FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS OUTLINED IN THE FIRE WEATHER SECTION BELOW.

WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A VERY STRONG UPPER LOW OFF THE MID
ATLANTIC COAST THIS MORNING...WITH A JET STREAK DROPPING SOUTH
ACROSS ARKANSAS. THE JET STREAK IS PART OF A LEADING SHORTWAVE
THAT WILL USHER IN A SYNOPTIC SCALE TROUGH...SET TO ESTABLISH
ITSELF ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE LOWER 48 BY THIS EVENING.
THIS JET STREAK AND ASSOCIATED SHORTWAVE WILL YIELD SOME CLOUD
COVER OVER THE NORTHEASTERN HALF OF ARKANSAS TODAY...AND EVEN SOME
LIGHT PRECIPITATION. DO NOT BELIEVE THERE WILL BE MEASURABLE
PRECIPITATION IN THE FORECAST AREA TODAY SO HAVE LOWERED POPS
ACCORDINGLY. HOWEVER...REGIONAL RADAR IMAGERY DOES SHOW SOME LIGHT
RETURNS SO MY CONFIDENCE IN THEIR BEING AN OCCASIONAL SNOW
FLURRY OR SPRINKLE OF RAIN IS HIGH ENOUGH TO MENTION IN THE
FORECAST.

THE MAIN STORY FOR THE SHORT TERM THOUGH WILL BE THE STRONG WINDS
EXPECTED TODAY. THE LATEST HIGH RESOLUTION GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT
WINDS WILL BE A LITTLE STRONGER THAN PREVIOUSLY EXPECTED. AREAS IN
THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF NORTHERN AND WESTERN ARKANSAS...AND ALSO IN
THE DELTA REGION SOUTH OF I-40...WILL SEE WIND GUSTS IN THE 35-40
MPH RANGE TODAY. AS SUCH...HAVE UPGRADED THE LAKE WIND ADVISORY TO
A WIND ADVISORY FOR TODAY AS A RESULT. MODEL SOUNDINGS SUGGEST
THE MIXED LAYER SHOULD DEEPEN TO AROUND 4500 FT AGL. GIVEN THE
FORECAST WINDS WITHIN THAT LAYER...IT WOULD NOT BE SURPRISING TO
SEE WIND GUSTS ABOVE 40 MPH TO BE SEEN. THE MOST LIKELY PLACE FOR
THESE GUSTS WILL BE IN THE SOUTHWEST WHERE BETTER MIXING WILL BE
PRESENT.

LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT

OVERALL RATHER BENIGN...ALBEIT CHILLY...CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
THROUGH THE PERIOD. MODELS ARE IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT EARLY ON
BEFORE DIVERGING AS THE PERIOD ENDS. AS SUCH...WILL BLEND FORECAST
SOLUTIONS THIS MORNING.

PERIOD STARTS OFF WITH A HIGHLY AMPLIFIED UPPER PATTERN IN PLACE
CHARACTERIZED BY STRONG UPPER RIDGING OVER THE WESTERN UNITED STATES
AND DEEP TROUGHING OVER THE EAST. IN BETWEEN THESE FEATURES IS A
PRONOUNCED NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT THAT SITS SQUARELY OVER THE MID
SOUTH.

FLOW DOES LOSE SOME OF ITS AMPLITUDE WITH TIME BUT THE SAME GENERAL
PATTERN REMAINS IN PLACE THROUGH THE PERIOD. MODELS CONTINUE TO MOVE
SEVERAL WEAK SYSTEMS THROUGH BUT OFFER VERY LITTLE IN THE WAY OF
PRECIPITATION CHANCES DUE TO LACK OF SIGNIFICANT MOISTURE RETURN.

A FRONT AT THE END OF THE WEEK WILL BRING A SLIGHT REINFORCING SHOT
OF COOLER AIR BUT THIS FEATURE DOES APPEAR TO DECAY SOMEWHAT BEFORE
REACHING THE STATE. BIGGEST DIFFERENCE IN THE PERIOD SHOWS UP SUNDAY
NIGHT AND INTO EARLY MONDAY AS ECMWF SWINGS A TROUGH THROUGH WHILE
THE GFS HAS NO SIGN OF IT. A SLIGHT CHANCE OF POPS WILL BE
INTRODUCED TO ROUND OUT THE PERIOD AS A RESULT. WILL ALSO TRY TO
BLEND NUMBERS AS WELL THROUGH THE PERIOD.

FIRE WEATHER...

FORECAST HIGHS TODAY ARE ON THE COOLER SIDE OF GUIDANCE. GIVEN THE STRONG
COLD AIR ADVECTION ACROSS THE REGION...EXPECT THAT TEMPERATURES
WILL HAVE A HARDER TIME CLIMBING THAN PERHAPS MODELS WOULD
SUGGEST. HOWEVER...IT SHOULD BE NOTED THAT IF TEMPS DO CLIMB
HIGHER THAN EXPECTED...THAT AFTERNOON RH VALUES COULD BE NOTABLY LOWER
THAN FORECAST. THE SIGNIFICANCE OF THIS IS THAT WINDS WILL BE MORE
THAN ADEQUATE FOR RED FLAG WARNING CONDITIONS...SO IF RELATIVE
HUMIDITY DROPS TO CRITICAL LEVELS THEN THE COMBINATION OF STRONG
WINDS...LOW AFTERNOON RH...AND VERY DRY FUELS WILL YIELD
CONDITIONS FAVORABLE FOR EXPLOSIVE FIRE GROWTH. FOR NOW...HAVE
FOREGONE THE ISSUANCE OF A RED FLAG WARNING AS RH VALUES ARE NOT
FORECAST TO DROP LOW ENOUGH. A FIRE DANGER STATEMENT /RFDLZK/ HAS BEEN
ISSUED TO ADDRESS THESE CONCERNS. PLEASE REFER TO THAT PRODUCT FOR
FURTHER INFORMATION.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BATESVILLE AR     41  25  41  23 /  10  10   0   0
CAMDEN AR         48  30  49  31 /   0   0   0   0
HARRISON AR       37  23  38  20 /  10   0   0   0
HOT SPRINGS AR    45  28  47  29 /   0   0   0   0
LITTLE ROCK   AR  45  28  46  27 /  10   0   0   0
MONTICELLO AR     47  29  47  30 /  10   0   0   0
MOUNT IDA AR      44  28  46  27 /   0   0   0   0
MOUNTAIN HOME AR  37  24  38  21 /  10  10   0   0
NEWPORT AR        40  26  41  22 /  10  10   0   0
PINE BLUFF AR     45  28  46  28 /  10   0   0   0
RUSSELLVILLE AR   44  27  45  26 /  10   0   0   0
SEARCY AR         42  26  43  24 /  10  10   0   0
STUTTGART AR      44  28  44  26 /  10  10   0   0
&&

.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR ARKANSAS-BAXTER-
BOONE-BRADLEY-CALHOUN-CLARK-CLEBURNE-CLEVELAND-CONWAY-DALLAS-
DESHA-DREW-FAULKNER-FULTON-GARLAND-GRANT-HOT SPRING-INDEPENDENCE-
IZARD-JACKSON-JEFFERSON-JOHNSON-LINCOLN-LOGAN-LONOKE-MARION-
MONROE-MONTGOMERY-NEWTON-OUACHITA-PERRY-PIKE-POLK-POPE-PRAIRIE-
PULASKI-SALINE-SCOTT-SEARCY-SHARP-STONE-VAN BUREN-WHITE-WOODRUFF-
YELL.

&&

$$


AVIATION...64




000
FXUS64 KLZK 081150 AAA
AFDLZK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
550 AM CST MON FEB 8 2016

.DISCUSSION...

UPDATED FOR THE 12Z AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

&&

.AVIATION...

THE MAIN CONCERN FOR THE 12Z TAF PERIOD WILL BE THE GUSTY
NORTHWEST WINDS. PERSISTENT GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS WILL EXIST
THROUGH AT LEAST 00Z FOR ALL TERMINALS. HAVE GUSTS TO ALMOST 30KT
IN AT ALL SITES BY MID MORNING. WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE SOME
GUSTS ABOVE 30KT...BUT EXPECT THOSE TO BE INFREQUENT. WINDS SHOULD
BEGIN TO EASE SIGNIFICANTLY AFTER SUNSET AND HAVE THIS ACCOUNTED
FOR THE IN THE FORECAST. THE ONLY CLOUDS TO SPEAK OF WILL BE SOME
BKN-OVC050 CEILINGS UP NORTH...WITH POSSIBLY SOME SCT-BKN050
BASES AS FAR SOUTH AS KLIT IN THE AFTERNOON. COULD ALSO SEE SOME
VERY LIGHT RAIN OR EVEN SNOW FLURRIES UP NORTH THIS MORNING
ALSO...BUT THESE SHOULD BE ISOLATED AND VERY BRIEF AND HAVE LEFT
THIS OUT OF THE NORTHERN TAFS AS A RESULT.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 353 AM CST MON FEB 8 2016/

SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT

MAIN CONCERNS IN THE SHORT TERM WILL BE THE WINDS TODAY...AND THE
FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS OUTLINED IN THE FIRE WEATHER SECTION BELOW.

WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A VERY STRONG UPPER LOW OFF THE MID
ATLANTIC COAST THIS MORNING...WITH A JET STREAK DROPPING SOUTH
ACROSS ARKANSAS. THE JET STREAK IS PART OF A LEADING SHORTWAVE
THAT WILL USHER IN A SYNOPTIC SCALE TROUGH...SET TO ESTABLISH
ITSELF ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE LOWER 48 BY THIS EVENING.
THIS JET STREAK AND ASSOCIATED SHORTWAVE WILL YIELD SOME CLOUD
COVER OVER THE NORTHEASTERN HALF OF ARKANSAS TODAY...AND EVEN SOME
LIGHT PRECIPITATION. DO NOT BELIEVE THERE WILL BE MEASURABLE
PRECIPITATION IN THE FORECAST AREA TODAY SO HAVE LOWERED POPS
ACCORDINGLY. HOWEVER...REGIONAL RADAR IMAGERY DOES SHOW SOME LIGHT
RETURNS SO MY CONFIDENCE IN THEIR BEING AN OCCASIONAL SNOW
FLURRY OR SPRINKLE OF RAIN IS HIGH ENOUGH TO MENTION IN THE
FORECAST.

THE MAIN STORY FOR THE SHORT TERM THOUGH WILL BE THE STRONG WINDS
EXPECTED TODAY. THE LATEST HIGH RESOLUTION GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT
WINDS WILL BE A LITTLE STRONGER THAN PREVIOUSLY EXPECTED. AREAS IN
THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF NORTHERN AND WESTERN ARKANSAS...AND ALSO IN
THE DELTA REGION SOUTH OF I-40...WILL SEE WIND GUSTS IN THE 35-40
MPH RANGE TODAY. AS SUCH...HAVE UPGRADED THE LAKE WIND ADVISORY TO
A WIND ADVISORY FOR TODAY AS A RESULT. MODEL SOUNDINGS SUGGEST
THE MIXED LAYER SHOULD DEEPEN TO AROUND 4500 FT AGL. GIVEN THE
FORECAST WINDS WITHIN THAT LAYER...IT WOULD NOT BE SURPRISING TO
SEE WIND GUSTS ABOVE 40 MPH TO BE SEEN. THE MOST LIKELY PLACE FOR
THESE GUSTS WILL BE IN THE SOUTHWEST WHERE BETTER MIXING WILL BE
PRESENT.

LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT

OVERALL RATHER BENIGN...ALBEIT CHILLY...CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
THROUGH THE PERIOD. MODELS ARE IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT EARLY ON
BEFORE DIVERGING AS THE PERIOD ENDS. AS SUCH...WILL BLEND FORECAST
SOLUTIONS THIS MORNING.

PERIOD STARTS OFF WITH A HIGHLY AMPLIFIED UPPER PATTERN IN PLACE
CHARACTERIZED BY STRONG UPPER RIDGING OVER THE WESTERN UNITED STATES
AND DEEP TROUGHING OVER THE EAST. IN BETWEEN THESE FEATURES IS A
PRONOUNCED NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT THAT SITS SQUARELY OVER THE MID
SOUTH.

FLOW DOES LOSE SOME OF ITS AMPLITUDE WITH TIME BUT THE SAME GENERAL
PATTERN REMAINS IN PLACE THROUGH THE PERIOD. MODELS CONTINUE TO MOVE
SEVERAL WEAK SYSTEMS THROUGH BUT OFFER VERY LITTLE IN THE WAY OF
PRECIPITATION CHANCES DUE TO LACK OF SIGNIFICANT MOISTURE RETURN.

A FRONT AT THE END OF THE WEEK WILL BRING A SLIGHT REINFORCING SHOT
OF COOLER AIR BUT THIS FEATURE DOES APPEAR TO DECAY SOMEWHAT BEFORE
REACHING THE STATE. BIGGEST DIFFERENCE IN THE PERIOD SHOWS UP SUNDAY
NIGHT AND INTO EARLY MONDAY AS ECMWF SWINGS A TROUGH THROUGH WHILE
THE GFS HAS NO SIGN OF IT. A SLIGHT CHANCE OF POPS WILL BE
INTRODUCED TO ROUND OUT THE PERIOD AS A RESULT. WILL ALSO TRY TO
BLEND NUMBERS AS WELL THROUGH THE PERIOD.

FIRE WEATHER...

FORECAST HIGHS TODAY ARE ON THE COOLER SIDE OF GUIDANCE. GIVEN THE STRONG
COLD AIR ADVECTION ACROSS THE REGION...EXPECT THAT TEMPERATURES
WILL HAVE A HARDER TIME CLIMBING THAN PERHAPS MODELS WOULD
SUGGEST. HOWEVER...IT SHOULD BE NOTED THAT IF TEMPS DO CLIMB
HIGHER THAN EXPECTED...THAT AFTERNOON RH VALUES COULD BE NOTABLY LOWER
THAN FORECAST. THE SIGNIFICANCE OF THIS IS THAT WINDS WILL BE MORE
THAN ADEQUATE FOR RED FLAG WARNING CONDITIONS...SO IF RELATIVE
HUMIDITY DROPS TO CRITICAL LEVELS THEN THE COMBINATION OF STRONG
WINDS...LOW AFTERNOON RH...AND VERY DRY FUELS WILL YIELD
CONDITIONS FAVORABLE FOR EXPLOSIVE FIRE GROWTH. FOR NOW...HAVE
FOREGONE THE ISSUANCE OF A RED FLAG WARNING AS RH VALUES ARE NOT
FORECAST TO DROP LOW ENOUGH. A FIRE DANGER STATEMENT /RFDLZK/ HAS BEEN
ISSUED TO ADDRESS THESE CONCERNS. PLEASE REFER TO THAT PRODUCT FOR
FURTHER INFORMATION.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BATESVILLE AR     41  25  41  23 /  10  10   0   0
CAMDEN AR         48  30  49  31 /   0   0   0   0
HARRISON AR       37  23  38  20 /  10   0   0   0
HOT SPRINGS AR    45  28  47  29 /   0   0   0   0
LITTLE ROCK   AR  45  28  46  27 /  10   0   0   0
MONTICELLO AR     47  29  47  30 /  10   0   0   0
MOUNT IDA AR      44  28  46  27 /   0   0   0   0
MOUNTAIN HOME AR  37  24  38  21 /  10  10   0   0
NEWPORT AR        40  26  41  22 /  10  10   0   0
PINE BLUFF AR     45  28  46  28 /  10   0   0   0
RUSSELLVILLE AR   44  27  45  26 /  10   0   0   0
SEARCY AR         42  26  43  24 /  10  10   0   0
STUTTGART AR      44  28  44  26 /  10  10   0   0
&&

.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR ARKANSAS-BAXTER-
BOONE-BRADLEY-CALHOUN-CLARK-CLEBURNE-CLEVELAND-CONWAY-DALLAS-
DESHA-DREW-FAULKNER-FULTON-GARLAND-GRANT-HOT SPRING-INDEPENDENCE-
IZARD-JACKSON-JEFFERSON-JOHNSON-LINCOLN-LOGAN-LONOKE-MARION-
MONROE-MONTGOMERY-NEWTON-OUACHITA-PERRY-PIKE-POLK-POPE-PRAIRIE-
PULASKI-SALINE-SCOTT-SEARCY-SHARP-STONE-VAN BUREN-WHITE-WOODRUFF-
YELL.

&&

$$


AVIATION...64




000
FXUS64 KLZK 080953
AFDLZK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
353 AM CST MON FEB 8 2016

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT

MAIN CONCERNS IN THE SHORT TERM WILL BE THE WINDS TODAY...AND THE
FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS OUTLINED IN THE FIRE WEATHER SECTION BELOW.

WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A VERY STRONG UPPER LOW OFF THE MID
ATLANTIC COAST THIS MORNING...WITH A JET STREAK DROPPING SOUTH
ACROSS ARKANSAS. THE JET STREAK IS PART OF A LEADING SHORTWAVE
THAT WILL USHER IN A SYNOPTIC SCALE TROUGH...SET TO ESTABLISH
ITSELF ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE LOWER 48 BY THIS EVENING.
THIS JET STREAK AND ASSOCIATED SHORTWAVE WILL YIELD SOME CLOUD
COVER OVER THE NORTHEASTERN HALF OF ARKANSAS TODAY...AND EVEN SOME
LIGHT PRECIPITATION. DO NOT BELIEVE THERE WILL BE MEASURABLE
PRECIPITATION IN THE FORECAST AREA TODAY SO HAVE LOWERED POPS
ACCORDINGLY. HOWEVER...REGIONAL RADAR IMAGERY DOES SHOW SOME LIGHT
RETURNS SO MY CONFIDENCE IN THEIR BEING AN OCCASIONAL SNOW
FLURRY OR SPRINKLE OF RAIN IS HIGH ENOUGH TO MENTION IN THE
FORECAST.

THE MAIN STORY FOR THE SHORT TERM THOUGH WILL BE THE STRONG WINDS
EXPECTED TODAY. THE LATEST HIGH RESOLUTION GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT
WINDS WILL BE A LITTLE STRONGER THAN PREVIOUSLY EXPECTED. AREAS IN
THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF NORTHERN AND WESTERN ARKANSAS...AND ALSO IN
THE DELTA REGION SOUTH OF I-40...WILL SEE WIND GUSTS IN THE 35-40
MPH RANGE TODAY. AS SUCH...HAVE UPGRADED THE LAKE WIND ADVISORY TO
A WIND ADVISORY FOR TODAY AS A RESULT. MODEL SOUNDINGS SUGGEST
THE MIXED LAYER SHOULD DEEPEN TO AROUND 4500 FT AGL. GIVEN THE
FORECAST WINDS WITHIN THAT LAYER...IT WOULD NOT BE SURPRISING TO
SEE WIND GUSTS ABOVE 40 MPH TO BE SEEN. THE MOST LIKELY PLACE FOR
THESE GUSTS WILL BE IN THE SOUTHWEST WHERE BETTER MIXING WILL BE
PRESENT.

&&

.LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT

OVERALL RATHER BENIGN...ALBEIT CHILLY...CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
THROUGH THE PERIOD. MODELS ARE IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT EARLY ON
BEFORE DIVERGING AS THE PERIOD ENDS. AS SUCH...WILL BLEND FORECAST
SOLUTIONS THIS MORNING.

PERIOD STARTS OFF WITH A HIGHLY AMPLIFIED UPPER PATTERN IN PLACE
CHARACTERIZED BY STRONG UPPER RIDGING OVER THE WESTERN UNITED STATES
AND DEEP TROUGHING OVER THE EAST. IN BETWEEN THESE FEATURES IS A
PRONOUNCED NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT THAT SITS SQUARELY OVER THE MID
SOUTH.

FLOW DOES LOSE SOME OF ITS AMPLITUDE WITH TIME BUT THE SAME GENERAL
PATTERN REMAINS IN PLACE THROUGH THE PERIOD. MODELS CONTINUE TO MOVE
SEVERAL WEAK SYSTEMS THROUGH BUT OFFER VERY LITTLE IN THE WAY OF
PRECIPITATION CHANCES DUE TO LACK OF SIGNIFICANT MOISTURE RETURN.

A FRONT AT THE END OF THE WEEK WILL BRING A SLIGHT REINFORCING SHOT
OF COOLER AIR BUT THIS FEATURE DOES APPEAR TO DECAY SOMEWHAT BEFORE
REACHING THE STATE. BIGGEST DIFFERENCE IN THE PERIOD SHOWS UP SUNDAY
NIGHT AND INTO EARLY MONDAY AS ECMWF SWINGS A TROUGH THROUGH WHILE
THE GFS HAS NO SIGN OF IT. A SLIGHT CHANCE OF POPS WILL BE
INTRODUCED TO ROUND OUT THE PERIOD AS A RESULT. WILL ALSO TRY TO
BLEND NUMBERS AS WELL THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

FORECAST HIGHS TODAY ARE ON THE COOLER SIDE OF GUIDANCE. GIVEN THE STRONG
COLD AIR ADVECTION ACROSS THE REGION...EXPECT THAT TEMPERATURES
WILL HAVE A HARDER TIME CLIMBING THAN PERHAPS MODELS WOULD
SUGGEST. HOWEVER...IT SHOULD BE NOTED THAT IF TEMPS DO CLIMB
HIGHER THAN EXPECTED...THAT AFTERNOON RH VALUES COULD BE NOTABLY LOWER
THAN FORECAST. THE SIGNIFICANCE OF THIS IS THAT WINDS WILL BE MORE
THAN ADEQUATE FOR RED FLAG WARNING CONDITIONS...SO IF RELATIVE
HUMIDITY DROPS TO CRITICAL LEVELS THEN THE COMBINATION OF STRONG
WINDS...LOW AFTERNOON RH...AND VERY DRY FUELS WILL YIELD
CONDITIONS FAVORABLE FOR EXPLOSIVE FIRE GROWTH. FOR NOW...HAVE
FOREGONE THE ISSUANCE OF A RED FLAG WARNING AS RH VALUES ARE NOT
FORECAST TO DROP LOW ENOUGH. A FIRE DANGER STATEMENT /RFDLZK/ HAS BEEN
ISSUED TO ADDRESS THESE CONCERNS. PLEASE REFER TO THAT PRODUCT FOR
FURTHER INFORMATION.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BATESVILLE AR     40  25  41  23 /  10  10   0   0
CAMDEN AR         48  30  49  31 /   0   0   0   0
HARRISON AR       37  23  38  20 /  10   0   0   0
HOT SPRINGS AR    45  28  47  29 /   0   0   0   0
LITTLE ROCK   AR  45  28  46  27 /  10   0   0   0
MONTICELLO AR     47  29  47  30 /  10   0   0   0
MOUNT IDA AR      44  28  46  27 /   0   0   0   0
MOUNTAIN HOME AR  37  24  38  21 /  10  10   0   0
NEWPORT AR        40  26  41  22 /  10  10   0   0
PINE BLUFF AR     45  28  46  28 /  10   0   0   0
RUSSELLVILLE AR   44  27  45  26 /  10   0   0   0
SEARCY AR         42  26  43  24 /  10  10   0   0
STUTTGART AR      44  28  44  26 /  10  10   0   0
&&

.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WIND ADVISORY FROM 6 AM THIS MORNING TO 6 PM CST THIS EVENING
FOR ARKANSAS-BAXTER-BOONE-BRADLEY-CALHOUN-CLARK-CLEBURNE-
CLEVELAND-CONWAY-DALLAS-DESHA-DREW-FAULKNER-FULTON-GARLAND-GRANT-
HOT SPRING-INDEPENDENCE-IZARD-JACKSON-JEFFERSON-JOHNSON-LINCOLN-
LOGAN-LONOKE-MARION-MONROE-MONTGOMERY-NEWTON-OUACHITA-PERRY-PIKE-
POLK-POPE-PRAIRIE-PULASKI-SALINE-SCOTT-SEARCY-SHARP-STONE-VAN
BUREN-WHITE-WOODRUFF-YELL.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...64 / LONG TERM...56




000
FXUS64 KLZK 080533 AAB
AFDLZK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
1133 PM CST SUN FEB 7 2016

.DISCUSSION...

UPDATED FOR THE 06Z AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

&&

.AVIATION...

A COLD FRONT IS PUSHING SE THROUGH THE STATE...WITH SW WINDS
TRANSITIONING TO THE WEST AND NW BEHIND THE FRONT. BREEZY CONDITIONS
WILL BE SEEN JUST BEHIND THIS FRONT OVERNIGHT...BUT EVEN STRONGER
WINDS WILL BE SEEN FOR MON AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS. SOME
MVFR CIGS COULD BE SEEN AT NRN TERMINALS...AS WELL A FEW FLURRIES.
OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS WILL BE SEEN.

&&

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 252 PM CST SUN FEB 7 2016/

SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY

THE FIRST OF TWO COLD FRONTS IS MOVING THROUGH ARKANSAS AT THIS
TIME. SOME MID AND HIGH CLOUDS WILL ACCOMPANY THIS FRONT AS IT
PASSES THROUGH TONIGHT. WEST WINDS WILL BECOME NORTHWEST TONIGHT
AND WILL BE INCREASING TOWARD MORNING AS THE NEXT LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM APPROACHES. THE STRONGEST PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL BE MID DAY
MONDAY AND WILL BRING THE STRONGEST WINDS. NORTHWEST WINDS 15 TO
25 MPH WILL GUST TO 35 MPH OR MORE. A LAKE WIND ADVISORY HAS BEEN
ISSUED FOR MONDAY MORNING THROUGH AFTERNOON.

THE COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH THE STATE NORTH TO
SOUTH MONDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT. WILL KEEP THE SLIGHT CHANCE OF
LIGHT RAIN OR SNOW IN THE NORTHEAST SECTIONS FOR MONDAY. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE AREA TUESDAY. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL
BE MUCH COOLER MONDAY AND TUESDAY...IN THE 30S AND 40S.

LONG TERM...TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY

NOT MUCH CHANGE IN THE EXTENDED RANGE. SEVERAL WEAK SYSTEMS WILL
MOVE THROUGH...OFFERING VERY LITTLE IN THE WAY OF PRECIP CHANCES DUE
TO LACK OF SIGNIFICANT MOISTURE RETURN. A FRONT AT THE END OF THE
WEEK WILL BRING A SLIGHT REINFORCING SHOT OF COOLER AIR. LOOKS LIKE
THERE MAY BE A MORE SIGNIFICANT SYSTEM AFFECT THE AREA JUST BEYOND
THE END OF THE PERIOD.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BATESVILLE AR     57  34  40  24 /   0  10  20  10
CAMDEN AR         64  37  48  29 /   0   0   0   0
HARRISON AR       55  32  37  22 /   0  10  10   0
HOT SPRINGS AR    59  35  45  27 /   0   0   0   0
LITTLE ROCK   AR  61  35  45  27 /   0   0  10   0
MONTICELLO AR     62  38  48  28 /   0   0  10   0
MOUNT IDA AR      61  34  44  27 /   0   0   0   0
MOUNTAIN HOME AR  55  33  38  23 /   0  10  20  10
NEWPORT AR        61  34  41  25 /   0  10  20  10
PINE BLUFF AR     59  36  46  27 /   0   0  10   0
RUSSELLVILLE AR   57  33  44  26 /   0   0  10   0
SEARCY AR         59  33  43  25 /   0  10  10  10
STUTTGART AR      59  34  45  27 /   0  10  10  10
&&

.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LAKE WIND ADVISORY FROM 6 AM TO 6 PM CST MONDAY FOR ARKANSAS-
BAXTER-BOONE-BRADLEY-CALHOUN-CLARK-CLEBURNE-CLEVELAND-CONWAY-
DALLAS-DESHA-DREW-FAULKNER-FULTON-GARLAND-GRANT-HOT SPRING-
INDEPENDENCE-IZARD-JACKSON-JEFFERSON-JOHNSON-LINCOLN-LOGAN-
LONOKE-MARION-MONROE-MONTGOMERY-NEWTON-OUACHITA-PERRY-PIKE-POLK-
POPE-PRAIRIE-PULASKI-SALINE-SCOTT-SEARCY-SHARP-STONE-VAN BUREN-
WHITE-WOODRUFF-YELL.

&&

$$


AVIATION...64




000
FXUS64 KLZK 080533 AAB
AFDLZK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
1133 PM CST SUN FEB 7 2016

.DISCUSSION...

UPDATED FOR THE 06Z AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

&&

.AVIATION...

A COLD FRONT IS PUSHING SE THROUGH THE STATE...WITH SW WINDS
TRANSITIONING TO THE WEST AND NW BEHIND THE FRONT. BREEZY CONDITIONS
WILL BE SEEN JUST BEHIND THIS FRONT OVERNIGHT...BUT EVEN STRONGER
WINDS WILL BE SEEN FOR MON AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS. SOME
MVFR CIGS COULD BE SEEN AT NRN TERMINALS...AS WELL A FEW FLURRIES.
OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS WILL BE SEEN.

&&

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 252 PM CST SUN FEB 7 2016/

SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY

THE FIRST OF TWO COLD FRONTS IS MOVING THROUGH ARKANSAS AT THIS
TIME. SOME MID AND HIGH CLOUDS WILL ACCOMPANY THIS FRONT AS IT
PASSES THROUGH TONIGHT. WEST WINDS WILL BECOME NORTHWEST TONIGHT
AND WILL BE INCREASING TOWARD MORNING AS THE NEXT LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM APPROACHES. THE STRONGEST PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL BE MID DAY
MONDAY AND WILL BRING THE STRONGEST WINDS. NORTHWEST WINDS 15 TO
25 MPH WILL GUST TO 35 MPH OR MORE. A LAKE WIND ADVISORY HAS BEEN
ISSUED FOR MONDAY MORNING THROUGH AFTERNOON.

THE COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH THE STATE NORTH TO
SOUTH MONDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT. WILL KEEP THE SLIGHT CHANCE OF
LIGHT RAIN OR SNOW IN THE NORTHEAST SECTIONS FOR MONDAY. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE AREA TUESDAY. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL
BE MUCH COOLER MONDAY AND TUESDAY...IN THE 30S AND 40S.

LONG TERM...TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY

NOT MUCH CHANGE IN THE EXTENDED RANGE. SEVERAL WEAK SYSTEMS WILL
MOVE THROUGH...OFFERING VERY LITTLE IN THE WAY OF PRECIP CHANCES DUE
TO LACK OF SIGNIFICANT MOISTURE RETURN. A FRONT AT THE END OF THE
WEEK WILL BRING A SLIGHT REINFORCING SHOT OF COOLER AIR. LOOKS LIKE
THERE MAY BE A MORE SIGNIFICANT SYSTEM AFFECT THE AREA JUST BEYOND
THE END OF THE PERIOD.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BATESVILLE AR     57  34  40  24 /   0  10  20  10
CAMDEN AR         64  37  48  29 /   0   0   0   0
HARRISON AR       55  32  37  22 /   0  10  10   0
HOT SPRINGS AR    59  35  45  27 /   0   0   0   0
LITTLE ROCK   AR  61  35  45  27 /   0   0  10   0
MONTICELLO AR     62  38  48  28 /   0   0  10   0
MOUNT IDA AR      61  34  44  27 /   0   0   0   0
MOUNTAIN HOME AR  55  33  38  23 /   0  10  20  10
NEWPORT AR        61  34  41  25 /   0  10  20  10
PINE BLUFF AR     59  36  46  27 /   0   0  10   0
RUSSELLVILLE AR   57  33  44  26 /   0   0  10   0
SEARCY AR         59  33  43  25 /   0  10  10  10
STUTTGART AR      59  34  45  27 /   0  10  10  10
&&

.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LAKE WIND ADVISORY FROM 6 AM TO 6 PM CST MONDAY FOR ARKANSAS-
BAXTER-BOONE-BRADLEY-CALHOUN-CLARK-CLEBURNE-CLEVELAND-CONWAY-
DALLAS-DESHA-DREW-FAULKNER-FULTON-GARLAND-GRANT-HOT SPRING-
INDEPENDENCE-IZARD-JACKSON-JEFFERSON-JOHNSON-LINCOLN-LOGAN-
LONOKE-MARION-MONROE-MONTGOMERY-NEWTON-OUACHITA-PERRY-PIKE-POLK-
POPE-PRAIRIE-PULASKI-SALINE-SCOTT-SEARCY-SHARP-STONE-VAN BUREN-
WHITE-WOODRUFF-YELL.

&&

$$


AVIATION...64



000
FXUS64 KLZK 080533 AAB
AFDLZK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
1133 PM CST SUN FEB 7 2016

.DISCUSSION...

UPDATED FOR THE 06Z AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

&&

.AVIATION...

A COLD FRONT IS PUSHING SE THROUGH THE STATE...WITH SW WINDS
TRANSITIONING TO THE WEST AND NW BEHIND THE FRONT. BREEZY CONDITIONS
WILL BE SEEN JUST BEHIND THIS FRONT OVERNIGHT...BUT EVEN STRONGER
WINDS WILL BE SEEN FOR MON AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS. SOME
MVFR CIGS COULD BE SEEN AT NRN TERMINALS...AS WELL A FEW FLURRIES.
OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS WILL BE SEEN.

&&

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 252 PM CST SUN FEB 7 2016/

SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY

THE FIRST OF TWO COLD FRONTS IS MOVING THROUGH ARKANSAS AT THIS
TIME. SOME MID AND HIGH CLOUDS WILL ACCOMPANY THIS FRONT AS IT
PASSES THROUGH TONIGHT. WEST WINDS WILL BECOME NORTHWEST TONIGHT
AND WILL BE INCREASING TOWARD MORNING AS THE NEXT LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM APPROACHES. THE STRONGEST PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL BE MID DAY
MONDAY AND WILL BRING THE STRONGEST WINDS. NORTHWEST WINDS 15 TO
25 MPH WILL GUST TO 35 MPH OR MORE. A LAKE WIND ADVISORY HAS BEEN
ISSUED FOR MONDAY MORNING THROUGH AFTERNOON.

THE COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH THE STATE NORTH TO
SOUTH MONDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT. WILL KEEP THE SLIGHT CHANCE OF
LIGHT RAIN OR SNOW IN THE NORTHEAST SECTIONS FOR MONDAY. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE AREA TUESDAY. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL
BE MUCH COOLER MONDAY AND TUESDAY...IN THE 30S AND 40S.

LONG TERM...TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY

NOT MUCH CHANGE IN THE EXTENDED RANGE. SEVERAL WEAK SYSTEMS WILL
MOVE THROUGH...OFFERING VERY LITTLE IN THE WAY OF PRECIP CHANCES DUE
TO LACK OF SIGNIFICANT MOISTURE RETURN. A FRONT AT THE END OF THE
WEEK WILL BRING A SLIGHT REINFORCING SHOT OF COOLER AIR. LOOKS LIKE
THERE MAY BE A MORE SIGNIFICANT SYSTEM AFFECT THE AREA JUST BEYOND
THE END OF THE PERIOD.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BATESVILLE AR     57  34  40  24 /   0  10  20  10
CAMDEN AR         64  37  48  29 /   0   0   0   0
HARRISON AR       55  32  37  22 /   0  10  10   0
HOT SPRINGS AR    59  35  45  27 /   0   0   0   0
LITTLE ROCK   AR  61  35  45  27 /   0   0  10   0
MONTICELLO AR     62  38  48  28 /   0   0  10   0
MOUNT IDA AR      61  34  44  27 /   0   0   0   0
MOUNTAIN HOME AR  55  33  38  23 /   0  10  20  10
NEWPORT AR        61  34  41  25 /   0  10  20  10
PINE BLUFF AR     59  36  46  27 /   0   0  10   0
RUSSELLVILLE AR   57  33  44  26 /   0   0  10   0
SEARCY AR         59  33  43  25 /   0  10  10  10
STUTTGART AR      59  34  45  27 /   0  10  10  10
&&

.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LAKE WIND ADVISORY FROM 6 AM TO 6 PM CST MONDAY FOR ARKANSAS-
BAXTER-BOONE-BRADLEY-CALHOUN-CLARK-CLEBURNE-CLEVELAND-CONWAY-
DALLAS-DESHA-DREW-FAULKNER-FULTON-GARLAND-GRANT-HOT SPRING-
INDEPENDENCE-IZARD-JACKSON-JEFFERSON-JOHNSON-LINCOLN-LOGAN-
LONOKE-MARION-MONROE-MONTGOMERY-NEWTON-OUACHITA-PERRY-PIKE-POLK-
POPE-PRAIRIE-PULASKI-SALINE-SCOTT-SEARCY-SHARP-STONE-VAN BUREN-
WHITE-WOODRUFF-YELL.

&&

$$


AVIATION...64




000
FXUS64 KLZK 072247 AAA
AFDLZK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
447 PM CST SUN FEB 7 2016

.DISCUSSION...

UPDATED TO INCLUDE THE 00Z AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW...

&&

.AVIATION...

A COLD FRONT IS PUSHING SE THROUGH THE STATE...WITH SW WINDS
TRANSITIONING TO THE WEST AND NW BEHIND THE FRONT. BREEZY
CONDITIONS WILL BE SEEN JUST BEHIND THIS FRONT...BUT EVEN STRONGER
WINDS WILL BE SEEN FOR MON AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS. SOME
MVFR CIGS COULD BE SEEN AT NRN TERMINALS...AS WELL A FEW FLURRIES.
OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS WILL BE SEEN.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 252 PM CST SUN FEB 7 2016/

SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY

THE FIRST OF TWO COLD FRONTS IS MOVING THROUGH ARKANSAS AT THIS
TIME. SOME MID AND HIGH CLOUDS WILL ACCOMPANY THIS FRONT AS IT
PASSES THROUGH TONIGHT. WEST WINDS WILL BECOME NORTHWEST TONIGHT
AND WILL BE INCREASING TOWARD MORNING AS THE NEXT LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM APPROACHES. THE STRONGEST PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL BE MID DAY
MONDAY AND WILL BRING THE STRONGEST WINDS. NORTHWEST WINDS 15 TO
25 MPH WILL GUST TO 35 MPH OR MORE. A LAKE WIND ADVISORY HAS BEEN
ISSUED FOR MONDAY MORNING THROUGH AFTERNOON.

THE COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH THE STATE NORTH TO
SOUTH MONDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT. WILL KEEP THE SLIGHT CHANCE OF
LIGHT RAIN OR SNOW IN THE NORTHEAST SECTIONS FOR MONDAY. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE AREA TUESDAY. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL
BE MUCH COOLER MONDAY AND TUESDAY...IN THE 30S AND 40S.

LONG TERM...TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY

NOT MUCH CHANGE IN THE EXTENDED RANGE. SEVERAL WEAK SYSTEMS WILL
MOVE THROUGH...OFFERING VERY LITTLE IN THE WAY OF PRECIP CHANCES DUE
TO LACK OF SIGNIFICANT MOISTURE RETURN. A FRONT AT THE END OF THE
WEEK WILL BRING A SLIGHT REINFORCING SHOT OF COOLER AIR. LOOKS LIKE
THERE MAY BE A MORE SIGNIFICANT SYSTEM AFFECT THE AREA JUST BEYOND
THE END OF THE PERIOD.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BATESVILLE AR     34  40  24  40 /  10  20  10   0
CAMDEN AR         37  48  29  49 /   0   0   0   0
HARRISON AR       32  37  22  38 /  10  10   0   0
HOT SPRINGS AR    35  45  27  46 /   0   0   0   0
LITTLE ROCK   AR  35  45  27  45 /   0  10   0   0
MONTICELLO AR     38  48  28  46 /   0  10   0   0
MOUNT IDA AR      34  44  27  46 /   0   0   0   0
MOUNTAIN HOME AR  33  38  23  38 /  10  20  10   0
NEWPORT AR        34  41  25  40 /  10  20  10   0
PINE BLUFF AR     36  46  27  45 /   0  10   0   0
RUSSELLVILLE AR   33  44  26  45 /   0  10   0   0
SEARCY AR         33  43  25  42 /  10  10  10   0
STUTTGART AR      34  45  27  43 /  10  10  10   0
&&

.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LAKE WIND ADVISORY FROM 6 AM TO 6 PM CST MONDAY FOR ARKANSAS-
BAXTER-BOONE-BRADLEY-CALHOUN-CLARK-CLEBURNE-CLEVELAND-CONWAY-
DALLAS-DESHA-DREW-FAULKNER-FULTON-GARLAND-GRANT-HOT SPRING-
INDEPENDENCE-IZARD-JACKSON-JEFFERSON-JOHNSON-LINCOLN-LOGAN-
LONOKE-MARION-MONROE-MONTGOMERY-NEWTON-OUACHITA-PERRY-PIKE-POLK-
POPE-PRAIRIE-PULASKI-SALINE-SCOTT-SEARCY-SHARP-STONE-VAN BUREN-
WHITE-WOODRUFF-YELL.

&&

$$


AVIATION...62



000
FXUS64 KLZK 072247 AAA
AFDLZK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
447 PM CST SUN FEB 7 2016

.DISCUSSION...

UPDATED TO INCLUDE THE 00Z AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW...

&&

.AVIATION...

A COLD FRONT IS PUSHING SE THROUGH THE STATE...WITH SW WINDS
TRANSITIONING TO THE WEST AND NW BEHIND THE FRONT. BREEZY
CONDITIONS WILL BE SEEN JUST BEHIND THIS FRONT...BUT EVEN STRONGER
WINDS WILL BE SEEN FOR MON AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS. SOME
MVFR CIGS COULD BE SEEN AT NRN TERMINALS...AS WELL A FEW FLURRIES.
OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS WILL BE SEEN.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 252 PM CST SUN FEB 7 2016/

SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY

THE FIRST OF TWO COLD FRONTS IS MOVING THROUGH ARKANSAS AT THIS
TIME. SOME MID AND HIGH CLOUDS WILL ACCOMPANY THIS FRONT AS IT
PASSES THROUGH TONIGHT. WEST WINDS WILL BECOME NORTHWEST TONIGHT
AND WILL BE INCREASING TOWARD MORNING AS THE NEXT LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM APPROACHES. THE STRONGEST PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL BE MID DAY
MONDAY AND WILL BRING THE STRONGEST WINDS. NORTHWEST WINDS 15 TO
25 MPH WILL GUST TO 35 MPH OR MORE. A LAKE WIND ADVISORY HAS BEEN
ISSUED FOR MONDAY MORNING THROUGH AFTERNOON.

THE COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH THE STATE NORTH TO
SOUTH MONDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT. WILL KEEP THE SLIGHT CHANCE OF
LIGHT RAIN OR SNOW IN THE NORTHEAST SECTIONS FOR MONDAY. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE AREA TUESDAY. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL
BE MUCH COOLER MONDAY AND TUESDAY...IN THE 30S AND 40S.

LONG TERM...TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY

NOT MUCH CHANGE IN THE EXTENDED RANGE. SEVERAL WEAK SYSTEMS WILL
MOVE THROUGH...OFFERING VERY LITTLE IN THE WAY OF PRECIP CHANCES DUE
TO LACK OF SIGNIFICANT MOISTURE RETURN. A FRONT AT THE END OF THE
WEEK WILL BRING A SLIGHT REINFORCING SHOT OF COOLER AIR. LOOKS LIKE
THERE MAY BE A MORE SIGNIFICANT SYSTEM AFFECT THE AREA JUST BEYOND
THE END OF THE PERIOD.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BATESVILLE AR     34  40  24  40 /  10  20  10   0
CAMDEN AR         37  48  29  49 /   0   0   0   0
HARRISON AR       32  37  22  38 /  10  10   0   0
HOT SPRINGS AR    35  45  27  46 /   0   0   0   0
LITTLE ROCK   AR  35  45  27  45 /   0  10   0   0
MONTICELLO AR     38  48  28  46 /   0  10   0   0
MOUNT IDA AR      34  44  27  46 /   0   0   0   0
MOUNTAIN HOME AR  33  38  23  38 /  10  20  10   0
NEWPORT AR        34  41  25  40 /  10  20  10   0
PINE BLUFF AR     36  46  27  45 /   0  10   0   0
RUSSELLVILLE AR   33  44  26  45 /   0  10   0   0
SEARCY AR         33  43  25  42 /  10  10  10   0
STUTTGART AR      34  45  27  43 /  10  10  10   0
&&

.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LAKE WIND ADVISORY FROM 6 AM TO 6 PM CST MONDAY FOR ARKANSAS-
BAXTER-BOONE-BRADLEY-CALHOUN-CLARK-CLEBURNE-CLEVELAND-CONWAY-
DALLAS-DESHA-DREW-FAULKNER-FULTON-GARLAND-GRANT-HOT SPRING-
INDEPENDENCE-IZARD-JACKSON-JEFFERSON-JOHNSON-LINCOLN-LOGAN-
LONOKE-MARION-MONROE-MONTGOMERY-NEWTON-OUACHITA-PERRY-PIKE-POLK-
POPE-PRAIRIE-PULASKI-SALINE-SCOTT-SEARCY-SHARP-STONE-VAN BUREN-
WHITE-WOODRUFF-YELL.

&&

$$


AVIATION...62




000
FXUS64 KLZK 072247 AAA
AFDLZK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
447 PM CST SUN FEB 7 2016

.DISCUSSION...

UPDATED TO INCLUDE THE 00Z AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW...

&&

.AVIATION...

A COLD FRONT IS PUSHING SE THROUGH THE STATE...WITH SW WINDS
TRANSITIONING TO THE WEST AND NW BEHIND THE FRONT. BREEZY
CONDITIONS WILL BE SEEN JUST BEHIND THIS FRONT...BUT EVEN STRONGER
WINDS WILL BE SEEN FOR MON AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS. SOME
MVFR CIGS COULD BE SEEN AT NRN TERMINALS...AS WELL A FEW FLURRIES.
OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS WILL BE SEEN.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 252 PM CST SUN FEB 7 2016/

SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY

THE FIRST OF TWO COLD FRONTS IS MOVING THROUGH ARKANSAS AT THIS
TIME. SOME MID AND HIGH CLOUDS WILL ACCOMPANY THIS FRONT AS IT
PASSES THROUGH TONIGHT. WEST WINDS WILL BECOME NORTHWEST TONIGHT
AND WILL BE INCREASING TOWARD MORNING AS THE NEXT LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM APPROACHES. THE STRONGEST PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL BE MID DAY
MONDAY AND WILL BRING THE STRONGEST WINDS. NORTHWEST WINDS 15 TO
25 MPH WILL GUST TO 35 MPH OR MORE. A LAKE WIND ADVISORY HAS BEEN
ISSUED FOR MONDAY MORNING THROUGH AFTERNOON.

THE COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH THE STATE NORTH TO
SOUTH MONDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT. WILL KEEP THE SLIGHT CHANCE OF
LIGHT RAIN OR SNOW IN THE NORTHEAST SECTIONS FOR MONDAY. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE AREA TUESDAY. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL
BE MUCH COOLER MONDAY AND TUESDAY...IN THE 30S AND 40S.

LONG TERM...TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY

NOT MUCH CHANGE IN THE EXTENDED RANGE. SEVERAL WEAK SYSTEMS WILL
MOVE THROUGH...OFFERING VERY LITTLE IN THE WAY OF PRECIP CHANCES DUE
TO LACK OF SIGNIFICANT MOISTURE RETURN. A FRONT AT THE END OF THE
WEEK WILL BRING A SLIGHT REINFORCING SHOT OF COOLER AIR. LOOKS LIKE
THERE MAY BE A MORE SIGNIFICANT SYSTEM AFFECT THE AREA JUST BEYOND
THE END OF THE PERIOD.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BATESVILLE AR     34  40  24  40 /  10  20  10   0
CAMDEN AR         37  48  29  49 /   0   0   0   0
HARRISON AR       32  37  22  38 /  10  10   0   0
HOT SPRINGS AR    35  45  27  46 /   0   0   0   0
LITTLE ROCK   AR  35  45  27  45 /   0  10   0   0
MONTICELLO AR     38  48  28  46 /   0  10   0   0
MOUNT IDA AR      34  44  27  46 /   0   0   0   0
MOUNTAIN HOME AR  33  38  23  38 /  10  20  10   0
NEWPORT AR        34  41  25  40 /  10  20  10   0
PINE BLUFF AR     36  46  27  45 /   0  10   0   0
RUSSELLVILLE AR   33  44  26  45 /   0  10   0   0
SEARCY AR         33  43  25  42 /  10  10  10   0
STUTTGART AR      34  45  27  43 /  10  10  10   0
&&

.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LAKE WIND ADVISORY FROM 6 AM TO 6 PM CST MONDAY FOR ARKANSAS-
BAXTER-BOONE-BRADLEY-CALHOUN-CLARK-CLEBURNE-CLEVELAND-CONWAY-
DALLAS-DESHA-DREW-FAULKNER-FULTON-GARLAND-GRANT-HOT SPRING-
INDEPENDENCE-IZARD-JACKSON-JEFFERSON-JOHNSON-LINCOLN-LOGAN-
LONOKE-MARION-MONROE-MONTGOMERY-NEWTON-OUACHITA-PERRY-PIKE-POLK-
POPE-PRAIRIE-PULASKI-SALINE-SCOTT-SEARCY-SHARP-STONE-VAN BUREN-
WHITE-WOODRUFF-YELL.

&&

$$


AVIATION...62




000
FXUS64 KLZK 072052
AFDLZK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
252 PM CST SUN FEB 7 2016

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY
THE FIRST OF TWO COLD FRONTS IS MOVING THROUGH ARKANSAS AT THIS
TIME. SOME MID AND HIGH CLOUDS WILL ACCOMPANY THIS FRONT AS IT
PASSES THROUGH TONIGHT. WEST WINDS WILL BECOME NORTHWEST TONIGHT
AND WILL BE INCREASING TOWARD MORNING AS THE NEXT LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM APPROACHES. THE STRONGEST PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL BE MID DAY
MONDAY AND WILL BRING THE STRONGEST WINDS. NORTHWEST WINDS 15 TO
25 MPH WILL GUST TO 35 MPH OR MORE. A LAKE WIND ADVISORY HAS BEEN
ISSUED FOR MONDAY MORNING THROUGH AFTERNOON.

THE COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH THE STATE NORTH TO
SOUTH MONDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT. WILL KEEP THE SLIGHT CHANCE OF
LIGHT RAIN OR SNOW IN THE NORTHEAST SECTIONS FOR MONDAY. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE AREA TUESDAY. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL
BE MUCH COOLER MONDAY AND TUESDAY...IN THE 30S AND 40S.

&&

.LONG TERM...TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY
NOT MUCH CHANGE IN THE EXTENDED RANGE. SEVERAL WEAK SYSTEMS WILL
MOVE THROUGH...OFFERING VERY LITTLE IN THE WAY OF PRECIP CHANCES DUE
TO LACK OF SIGNIFICANT MOISTURE RETURN. A FRONT AT THE END OF THE
WEEK WILL BRING A SLIGHT REINFORCING SHOT OF COOLER AIR. LOOKS LIKE
THERE MAY BE A MORE SIGNIFICANT SYSTEM AFFECT THE AREA JUST BEYOND
THE END OF THE PERIOD.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BATESVILLE AR     34  41  25  40 /  10  10  10   0
CAMDEN AR         37  50  30  49 /   0   0   0   0
HARRISON AR       31  38  23  39 /  10  10   0   0
HOT SPRINGS AR    35  48  28  48 /   0   0   0   0
LITTLE ROCK   AR  35  46  27  46 /   0   0   0   0
MONTICELLO AR     37  49  29  48 /   0   0   0   0
MOUNT IDA AR      34  48  28  48 /   0   0   0   0
MOUNTAIN HOME AR  33  38  23  39 /  10  20  10   0
NEWPORT AR        34  42  26  40 /  10  20  10   0
PINE BLUFF AR     36  48  28  46 /   0   0   0   0
RUSSELLVILLE AR   34  44  26  44 /   0   0   0   0
SEARCY AR         34  44  26  43 /  10  10  10   0
STUTTGART AR      34  46  27  44 /  10  10  10   0
&&

.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LAKE WIND ADVISORY FROM 6 AM TO 6 PM CST MONDAY FOR ARKANSAS-
BAXTER-BOONE-BRADLEY-CALHOUN-CLARK-CLEBURNE-CLEVELAND-CONWAY-
DALLAS-DESHA-DREW-FAULKNER-FULTON-GARLAND-GRANT-HOT SPRING-
INDEPENDENCE-IZARD-JACKSON-JEFFERSON-JOHNSON-LINCOLN-LOGAN-
LONOKE-MARION-MONROE-MONTGOMERY-NEWTON-OUACHITA-PERRY-PIKE-POLK-
POPE-PRAIRIE-PULASKI-SALINE-SCOTT-SEARCY-SHARP-STONE-VAN BUREN-
WHITE-WOODRUFF-YELL.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...51 / LONG TERM...57




000
FXUS64 KLZK 071735
AFDLZK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
1135 AM CST SUN FEB 7 2016

.AVIATION...
WITH HIGH PRESSURE SOUTHEAST OF THE STATE AND A COLD FRONT JUST
ENTERING NORTHWEST ARKANSAS...SOUTHWEST WINDS ARE AHEAD OF THE
FRONT. THESE WINDS WILL BECOME GUSTY THIS AFTERNOON WITH SOME
GUSTS TO 20 TO 25 MPH. CLOUDS WILL INCREASE WITH THE FORNT BUT NO
PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED. LOW CLOUDS WILL DEVELOP BY MORNING BUT
ONLY EXPECT MVFR CONDITIONS IN THE NORTH AND THE REST OF THE AREA
WILL BE VFR.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1026 AM CST SUN FEB 7 2016/

UPDATE...
HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO BE OVER NORTHEAST LOUISIANA THIS
MORNING. A COLD FRONT IS JUST NORTHWEST OF ARKANSAS AND SOUTHWEST
WINDS CONTINUE AHEAD OF THE FRONT. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE
THIS AFTERNOON. INCREASED MAX TEMPERATURES FOR THIS AFTERNOON ONE
TO TWO DEGREES OVER THE SOUTHEAST HALF OF THE AREA. CLOUDS WILL
INCREASE AS THE FRONT MOVES INTO THE STATE.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 553 AM CST SUN FEB 7 2016/

AVIATION...

HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO STREAM OVER THE AREA THROUGH
THE PERIOD WITH SOME MID LEVEL MOISTURE LIKELY OVER THE NORTH.
SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL INCREASE THIS AFTERNOON WITH STRONGER
WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS SEEN AFTER SUNSET AS A STRONG COLD FRONT
DROPS INTO THE STATE. THE STRONGEST WINDS WILL BE AT THE NORTHERN
TERMINALS. VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE PERIOD.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 229 AM CST SUN FEB 7 2016/

SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT

MAIN STORY IN THE SHORT TERM PERIOD WILL BE AN ARCTIC COLD FRONT
EXPECTED TO PASS THROUGH THE STATE DURING THE LATE SUNDAY AFTERNOON
TO SUNDAY NIGHT TIME FRAME. SURFACE OBSERVATIONS AND THE LATEST
MOISTURE CHANNEL IMAGERY SHOW THIS BOUNDARY MOVING THROUGH THE TEXAS
AND OKLAHOMA PANHANDLES AT THIS TIME.

BOUNDARY IS EXPECTED TO ENTER NORTHWEST ARKANSAS AROUND THE NOON
TIME HOUR...REACHING CENTRAL SECTIONS AROUND SUNSET BEFORE REACHING
THE SOUTHEAST CORNER EARLY MONDAY.

BOUNDARY WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA DRY WITH BREEZY SOUTHWEST WINDS
EXPECTED TO INCREASE IN ADVANCE OF THE FEATURE BEFORE TURNING WEST
TO NORTHWEST IN ITS WAKE. AFTERNOON HUMIDITY IS EXPECTED TO DROP
INTO THE 30TH PERCENTILE AND WITH WINDS A BIT HIGHER VERSUS PREVIOUS
DAYS...FIRE DANGER WILL REMAIN ELEVATED.

DEEP UPPER LOW WILL DROP INTO THE GREAT LAKES STATES BY MONDAY
MORNING AS STRONG UPPER RIDGE BUILDS ALONG THE WEST COAST. UPPER
FLOW BUCKLES SIGNIFICANTLY IN RESPONSE WITH A STOUT NORTHWEST FLOW
DEVELOPING FOR THE REGION.

A SECONDARY FRONT WITH A REINFORCING SHOT OF COLD AIR WILL MOVE
THROUGH ON MONDAY. THIS BOUNDARY WILL BRING A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SOME
LIGHT SNOW OR RAIN TO THE FAR NORTHEAST ZONES IN OUR COUNTY WARNING
AREA. THE CHANCES FOR ANY PRECIPITATION AT ALL ARE VERY SMALL AND NO
ACCUMULATION OF ANY TYPE IS EXPECTED.

AS A RESULT OF THIS DEEP NORTHWEST FLOW...CONSIDERABLY COLDER AIR
WILL POUR INTO THE STATE WITH HIGHS MONDAY AS MUCH AS 20 DEGREES
COLDER IN SOME SPOTS VERSUS WHAT WILL BE SEEN TODAY. A VERY BREEZY
DAY IS EXPECTED ON MONDAY AND SOME TYPE OF WIND HEADLINE IS LIKELY.

LONG TERM PERIOD...TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY

MODELS REMAIN IN DECENT OVERALL AGREEMENT ON THE PATTERN DURING THE
LONG TERM...SHOWING A BROAD UPPER TROUGH IN THE EASTERN CONUS WITH
DEEP MERIDIONAL FLOW STRETCHING FROM ARKANSAS WELL INTO CENTRAL
CANADA FOR MOST OF NEXT WEEK. THERE ARE SOME DIFFERENCES IN THE
DETAILS THOUGH...WITH THE ECMWF BEING NOTABLY WARMER THAN THE GFS
AND ALSO SHOWING MORE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ALBEIT STILL FAIRLY DRY IN
THE GRAND SCHEME OF THINGS.

SUCH A PATTERN FAVORS A COOLER AND DRIER SOLUTION THAN THE ECMWF
SHOWS...WHICH HAPPENS TO BE IN LINE WITH THE GFS. WENT AHEAD AND
SHIFTED THE FORECAST TOWARDS THE GFS SOLUTION AS A RESULT. THE
RESULTING CHANGES TO THE FORECAST WERE TO COOL TUE AND WED OFF...AND
DECREASE DEWPOINTS SIGNIFICANTLY DURING THAT SAME TIME PERIOD.
ADDITIONALLY...THE GFS...AS WELL AS THE EURO...HAS BEEN ADVERTISING
A REINFORCING SHOT OF COOL AIR BEHIND A WEAK BOUNDARY FORECAST TO
MOVE THROUGH THE STATE LATE THU/EARLY FRI. THE GFS IS ACTUALLY A BIT
STRONGER WITH THE FRONT AND DOES DEVELOP A WEAK PRECIPITATION SHIELD
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF ARKANSAS AS IT PASSES THROUGH. ADDED IN
SOME SLIGHT CHANCE POPS TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS BUT WOULD NOT BE AT ALL
SURPRISED TO SEE THIS END UP BEING A DRY FRONTAL PASSAGE.

TEMPERATURES WILL MODERATE A LITTLE ON THU AND FRI AS THAT
DISTURBANCE PASSES BY...BUT WILL COOL BACK OFF AS THE UPPER FLOW
AMPLIFIES AGAIN AND THE REINFORCING SHOT OF COLD AIR ARRIVES FOR THE
WEEKEND.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BATESVILLE AR     59  34  40  26 /   0  10  10  10
CAMDEN AR         62  38  49  31 /   0   0   0   0
HARRISON AR       56  31  35  24 /   0  10  10   0
HOT SPRINGS AR    61  35  44  29 /   0   0   0   0
LITTLE ROCK   AR  61  35  45  29 /   0   0   0   0
MONTICELLO AR     62  37  48  30 /   0   0   0   0
MOUNT IDA AR      60  33  43  29 /   0   0   0   0
MOUNTAIN HOME AR  58  33  36  24 /   0  10  10  10
NEWPORT AR        59  34  40  27 /   0  10  20  10
PINE BLUFF AR     61  36  45  29 /   0   0   0   0
RUSSELLVILLE AR   59  34  43  27 /   0   0   0   0
SEARCY AR         60  33  44  27 /   0  10  10  10
STUTTGART AR      61  34  44  28 /   0  10  10   0
&&

.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&

$$


AVIATION...51




000
FXUS64 KLZK 071626
AFDLZK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
1026 AM CST SUN FEB 7 2016

.UPDATE...
HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO BE OVER NORTHEAST LOUISIANA THIS
MORNING. A COLD FRONT IS JUST NORTHWEST OF ARKANSAS AND SOUTHWEST
WINDS CONTINUE AHEAD OF THE FRONT. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE
THIS AFTERNOON. INCREASED MAX TEMPERATURES FOR THIS AFTERNOON ONE
TO TWO DEGREES OVER THE SOUTHEAST HALF OF THE AREA. CLOUDS WILL
INCREASE AS THE FRONT MOVES INTO THE STATE.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 553 AM CST SUN FEB 7 2016/

AVIATION...

HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO STREAM OVER THE AREA THROUGH
THE PERIOD WITH SOME MID LEVEL MOISTURE LIKELY OVER THE NORTH.
SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL INCREASE THIS AFTERNOON WITH STRONGER
WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS SEEN AFTER SUNSET AS A STRONG COLD FRONT
DROPS INTO THE STATE. THE STRONGEST WINDS WILL BE AT THE NORTHERN
TERMINALS. VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE PERIOD.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 229 AM CST SUN FEB 7 2016/

SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT

MAIN STORY IN THE SHORT TERM PERIOD WILL BE AN ARCTIC COLD FRONT
EXPECTED TO PASS THROUGH THE STATE DURING THE LATE SUNDAY AFTERNOON
TO SUNDAY NIGHT TIME FRAME. SURFACE OBSERVATIONS AND THE LATEST
MOISTURE CHANNEL IMAGERY SHOW THIS BOUNDARY MOVING THROUGH THE TEXAS
AND OKLAHOMA PANHANDLES AT THIS TIME.

BOUNDARY IS EXPECTED TO ENTER NORTHWEST ARKANSAS AROUND THE NOON
TIME HOUR...REACHING CENTRAL SECTIONS AROUND SUNSET BEFORE REACHING
THE SOUTHEAST CORNER EARLY MONDAY.

BOUNDARY WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA DRY WITH BREEZY SOUTHWEST WINDS
EXPECTED TO INCREASE IN ADVANCE OF THE FEATURE BEFORE TURNING WEST
TO NORTHWEST IN ITS WAKE. AFTERNOON HUMIDITY IS EXPECTED TO DROP
INTO THE 30TH PERCENTILE AND WITH WINDS A BIT HIGHER VERSUS PREVIOUS
DAYS...FIRE DANGER WILL REMAIN ELEVATED.

DEEP UPPER LOW WILL DROP INTO THE GREAT LAKES STATES BY MONDAY
MORNING AS STRONG UPPER RIDGE BUILDS ALONG THE WEST COAST. UPPER
FLOW BUCKLES SIGNIFICANTLY IN RESPONSE WITH A STOUT NORTHWEST FLOW
DEVELOPING FOR THE REGION.

A SECONDARY FRONT WITH A REINFORCING SHOT OF COLD AIR WILL MOVE
THROUGH ON MONDAY. THIS BOUNDARY WILL BRING A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SOME
LIGHT SNOW OR RAIN TO THE FAR NORTHEAST ZONES IN OUR COUNTY WARNING
AREA. THE CHANCES FOR ANY PRECIPITATION AT ALL ARE VERY SMALL AND NO
ACCUMULATION OF ANY TYPE IS EXPECTED.

AS A RESULT OF THIS DEEP NORTHWEST FLOW...CONSIDERABLY COLDER AIR
WILL POUR INTO THE STATE WITH HIGHS MONDAY AS MUCH AS 20 DEGREES
COLDER IN SOME SPOTS VERSUS WHAT WILL BE SEEN TODAY. A VERY BREEZY
DAY IS EXPECTED ON MONDAY AND SOME TYPE OF WIND HEADLINE IS LIKELY.

LONG TERM PERIOD...TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY

MODELS REMAIN IN DECENT OVERALL AGREEMENT ON THE PATTERN DURING THE
LONG TERM...SHOWING A BROAD UPPER TROUGH IN THE EASTERN CONUS WITH
DEEP MERIDIONAL FLOW STRETCHING FROM ARKANSAS WELL INTO CENTRAL
CANADA FOR MOST OF NEXT WEEK. THERE ARE SOME DIFFERENCES IN THE
DETAILS THOUGH...WITH THE ECMWF BEING NOTABLY WARMER THAN THE GFS
AND ALSO SHOWING MORE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ALBEIT STILL FAIRLY DRY IN
THE GRAND SCHEME OF THINGS.

SUCH A PATTERN FAVORS A COOLER AND DRIER SOLUTION THAN THE ECMWF
SHOWS...WHICH HAPPENS TO BE IN LINE WITH THE GFS. WENT AHEAD AND
SHIFTED THE FORECAST TOWARDS THE GFS SOLUTION AS A RESULT. THE
RESULTING CHANGES TO THE FORECAST WERE TO COOL TUE AND WED OFF...AND
DECREASE DEWPOINTS SIGNIFICANTLY DURING THAT SAME TIME PERIOD.
ADDITIONALLY...THE GFS...AS WELL AS THE EURO...HAS BEEN ADVERTISING
A REINFORCING SHOT OF COOL AIR BEHIND A WEAK BOUNDARY FORECAST TO
MOVE THROUGH THE STATE LATE THU/EARLY FRI. THE GFS IS ACTUALLY A BIT
STRONGER WITH THE FRONT AND DOES DEVELOP A WEAK PRECIPITATION SHIELD
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF ARKANSAS AS IT PASSES THROUGH. ADDED IN
SOME SLIGHT CHANCE POPS TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS BUT WOULD NOT BE AT ALL
SURPRISED TO SEE THIS END UP BEING A DRY FRONTAL PASSAGE.

TEMPERATURES WILL MODERATE A LITTLE ON THU AND FRI AS THAT
DISTURBANCE PASSES BY...BUT WILL COOL BACK OFF AS THE UPPER FLOW
AMPLIFIES AGAIN AND THE REINFORCING SHOT OF COLD AIR ARRIVES FOR THE
WEEKEND.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BATESVILLE AR     59  34  40  26 /   0  10  10  10
CAMDEN AR         62  38  49  31 /   0   0   0   0
HARRISON AR       56  31  35  24 /   0  10  10   0
HOT SPRINGS AR    61  35  44  29 /   0   0   0   0
LITTLE ROCK   AR  61  35  45  29 /   0   0   0   0
MONTICELLO AR     62  37  48  30 /   0   0   0   0
MOUNT IDA AR      60  33  43  29 /   0   0   0   0
MOUNTAIN HOME AR  58  33  36  24 /   0  10  10  10
NEWPORT AR        59  34  40  27 /   0  10  20  10
PINE BLUFF AR     61  36  45  29 /   0   0   0   0
RUSSELLVILLE AR   59  34  43  27 /   0   0   0   0
SEARCY AR         60  33  44  27 /   0  10  10  10
STUTTGART AR      61  34  44  28 /   0  10  10   0
&&

.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&

$$

51




000
FXUS64 KLZK 071153
AFDLZK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
553 AM CST SUN FEB 7 2016

.AVIATION...

HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO STREAM OVER THE AREA THROUGH
THE PERIOD WITH SOME MID LEVEL MOISTURE LIKELY OVER THE NORTH.
SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL INCREASE THIS AFTERNOON WITH STRONGER
WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS SEEN AFTER SUNSET AS A STRONG COLD FRONT
DROPS INTO THE STATE. THE STRONGEST WINDS WILL BE AT THE NORTHERN
TERMINALS. VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 229 AM CST SUN FEB 7 2016/

SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT

MAIN STORY IN THE SHORT TERM PERIOD WILL BE AN ARCTIC COLD FRONT
EXPECTED TO PASS THROUGH THE STATE DURING THE LATE SUNDAY AFTERNOON
TO SUNDAY NIGHT TIME FRAME. SURFACE OBSERVATIONS AND THE LATEST
MOISTURE CHANNEL IMAGERY SHOW THIS BOUNDARY MOVING THROUGH THE TEXAS
AND OKLAHOMA PANHANDLES AT THIS TIME.

BOUNDARY IS EXPECTED TO ENTER NORTHWEST ARKANSAS AROUND THE NOON
TIME HOUR...REACHING CENTRAL SECTIONS AROUND SUNSET BEFORE REACHING
THE SOUTHEAST CORNER EARLY MONDAY.

BOUNDARY WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA DRY WITH BREEZY SOUTHWEST WINDS
EXPECTED TO INCREASE IN ADVANCE OF THE FEATURE BEFORE TURNING WEST
TO NORTHWEST IN ITS WAKE. AFTERNOON HUMIDITY IS EXPECTED TO DROP
INTO THE 30TH PERCENTILE AND WITH WINDS A BIT HIGHER VERSUS PREVIOUS
DAYS...FIRE DANGER WILL REMAIN ELEVATED.

DEEP UPPER LOW WILL DROP INTO THE GREAT LAKES STATES BY MONDAY
MORNING AS STRONG UPPER RIDGE BUILDS ALONG THE WEST COAST. UPPER
FLOW BUCKLES SIGNIFICANTLY IN RESPONSE WITH A STOUT NORTHWEST FLOW
DEVELOPING FOR THE REGION.

A SECONDARY FRONT WITH A REINFORCING SHOT OF COLD AIR WILL MOVE
THROUGH ON MONDAY. THIS BOUNDARY WILL BRING A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SOME
LIGHT SNOW OR RAIN TO THE FAR NORTHEAST ZONES IN OUR COUNTY WARNING
AREA. THE CHANCES FOR ANY PRECIPITATION AT ALL ARE VERY SMALL AND NO
ACCUMULATION OF ANY TYPE IS EXPECTED.

AS A RESULT OF THIS DEEP NORTHWEST FLOW...CONSIDERABLY COLDER AIR
WILL POUR INTO THE STATE WITH HIGHS MONDAY AS MUCH AS 20 DEGREES
COLDER IN SOME SPOTS VERSUS WHAT WILL BE SEEN TODAY. A VERY BREEZY
DAY IS EXPECTED ON MONDAY AND SOME TYPE OF WIND HEADLINE IS LIKELY.

LONG TERM PERIOD...TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY

MODELS REMAIN IN DECENT OVERALL AGREEMENT ON THE PATTERN DURING THE
LONG TERM...SHOWING A BROAD UPPER TROUGH IN THE EASTERN CONUS WITH
DEEP MERIDIONAL FLOW STRETCHING FROM ARKANSAS WELL INTO CENTRAL
CANADA FOR MOST OF NEXT WEEK. THERE ARE SOME DIFFERENCES IN THE
DETAILS THOUGH...WITH THE ECMWF BEING NOTABLY WARMER THAN THE GFS
AND ALSO SHOWING MORE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ALBEIT STILL FAIRLY DRY IN
THE GRAND SCHEME OF THINGS.

SUCH A PATTERN FAVORS A COOLER AND DRIER SOLUTION THAN THE ECMWF
SHOWS...WHICH HAPPENS TO BE IN LINE WITH THE GFS. WENT AHEAD AND
SHIFTED THE FORECAST TOWARDS THE GFS SOLUTION AS A RESULT. THE
RESULTING CHANGES TO THE FORECAST WERE TO COOL TUE AND WED OFF...AND
DECREASE DEWPOINTS SIGNIFICANTLY DURING THAT SAME TIME PERIOD.
ADDITIONALLY...THE GFS...AS WELL AS THE EURO...HAS BEEN ADVERTISING
A REINFORCING SHOT OF COOL AIR BEHIND A WEAK BOUNDARY FORECAST TO
MOVE THROUGH THE STATE LATE THU/EARLY FRI. THE GFS IS ACTUALLY A BIT
STRONGER WITH THE FRONT AND DOES DEVELOP A WEAK PRECIPITATION SHIELD
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF ARKANSAS AS IT PASSES THROUGH. ADDED IN
SOME SLIGHT CHANCE POPS TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS BUT WOULD NOT BE AT ALL
SURPRISED TO SEE THIS END UP BEING A DRY FRONTAL PASSAGE.

TEMPERATURES WILL MODERATE A LITTLE ON THU AND FRI AS THAT
DISTURBANCE PASSES BY...BUT WILL COOL BACK OFF AS THE UPPER FLOW
AMPLIFIES AGAIN AND THE REINFORCING SHOT OF COLD AIR ARRIVES FOR THE
WEEKEND.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BATESVILLE AR     60  34  40  26 /   0  10  10  10
CAMDEN AR         61  38  49  31 /   0   0   0   0
HARRISON AR       56  31  35  24 /   0  10  10   0
HOT SPRINGS AR    60  35  44  29 /   0   0   0   0
LITTLE ROCK   AR  60  35  45  29 /   0   0   0   0
MONTICELLO AR     61  37  48  30 /   0   0   0   0
MOUNT IDA AR      59  33  43  29 /   0   0   0   0
MOUNTAIN HOME AR  58  33  36  24 /   0  10  10  10
NEWPORT AR        59  34  40  27 /   0  10  20  10
PINE BLUFF AR     59  36  45  29 /   0   0   0   0
RUSSELLVILLE AR   59  34  43  27 /   0   0   0   0
SEARCY AR         59  33  44  27 /   0  10  10  10
STUTTGART AR      59  34  44  28 /   0  10  10   0
&&

.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&

$$


AVIATION...56



000
FXUS64 KLZK 071153
AFDLZK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
553 AM CST SUN FEB 7 2016

.AVIATION...

HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO STREAM OVER THE AREA THROUGH
THE PERIOD WITH SOME MID LEVEL MOISTURE LIKELY OVER THE NORTH.
SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL INCREASE THIS AFTERNOON WITH STRONGER
WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS SEEN AFTER SUNSET AS A STRONG COLD FRONT
DROPS INTO THE STATE. THE STRONGEST WINDS WILL BE AT THE NORTHERN
TERMINALS. VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 229 AM CST SUN FEB 7 2016/

SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT

MAIN STORY IN THE SHORT TERM PERIOD WILL BE AN ARCTIC COLD FRONT
EXPECTED TO PASS THROUGH THE STATE DURING THE LATE SUNDAY AFTERNOON
TO SUNDAY NIGHT TIME FRAME. SURFACE OBSERVATIONS AND THE LATEST
MOISTURE CHANNEL IMAGERY SHOW THIS BOUNDARY MOVING THROUGH THE TEXAS
AND OKLAHOMA PANHANDLES AT THIS TIME.

BOUNDARY IS EXPECTED TO ENTER NORTHWEST ARKANSAS AROUND THE NOON
TIME HOUR...REACHING CENTRAL SECTIONS AROUND SUNSET BEFORE REACHING
THE SOUTHEAST CORNER EARLY MONDAY.

BOUNDARY WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA DRY WITH BREEZY SOUTHWEST WINDS
EXPECTED TO INCREASE IN ADVANCE OF THE FEATURE BEFORE TURNING WEST
TO NORTHWEST IN ITS WAKE. AFTERNOON HUMIDITY IS EXPECTED TO DROP
INTO THE 30TH PERCENTILE AND WITH WINDS A BIT HIGHER VERSUS PREVIOUS
DAYS...FIRE DANGER WILL REMAIN ELEVATED.

DEEP UPPER LOW WILL DROP INTO THE GREAT LAKES STATES BY MONDAY
MORNING AS STRONG UPPER RIDGE BUILDS ALONG THE WEST COAST. UPPER
FLOW BUCKLES SIGNIFICANTLY IN RESPONSE WITH A STOUT NORTHWEST FLOW
DEVELOPING FOR THE REGION.

A SECONDARY FRONT WITH A REINFORCING SHOT OF COLD AIR WILL MOVE
THROUGH ON MONDAY. THIS BOUNDARY WILL BRING A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SOME
LIGHT SNOW OR RAIN TO THE FAR NORTHEAST ZONES IN OUR COUNTY WARNING
AREA. THE CHANCES FOR ANY PRECIPITATION AT ALL ARE VERY SMALL AND NO
ACCUMULATION OF ANY TYPE IS EXPECTED.

AS A RESULT OF THIS DEEP NORTHWEST FLOW...CONSIDERABLY COLDER AIR
WILL POUR INTO THE STATE WITH HIGHS MONDAY AS MUCH AS 20 DEGREES
COLDER IN SOME SPOTS VERSUS WHAT WILL BE SEEN TODAY. A VERY BREEZY
DAY IS EXPECTED ON MONDAY AND SOME TYPE OF WIND HEADLINE IS LIKELY.

LONG TERM PERIOD...TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY

MODELS REMAIN IN DECENT OVERALL AGREEMENT ON THE PATTERN DURING THE
LONG TERM...SHOWING A BROAD UPPER TROUGH IN THE EASTERN CONUS WITH
DEEP MERIDIONAL FLOW STRETCHING FROM ARKANSAS WELL INTO CENTRAL
CANADA FOR MOST OF NEXT WEEK. THERE ARE SOME DIFFERENCES IN THE
DETAILS THOUGH...WITH THE ECMWF BEING NOTABLY WARMER THAN THE GFS
AND ALSO SHOWING MORE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ALBEIT STILL FAIRLY DRY IN
THE GRAND SCHEME OF THINGS.

SUCH A PATTERN FAVORS A COOLER AND DRIER SOLUTION THAN THE ECMWF
SHOWS...WHICH HAPPENS TO BE IN LINE WITH THE GFS. WENT AHEAD AND
SHIFTED THE FORECAST TOWARDS THE GFS SOLUTION AS A RESULT. THE
RESULTING CHANGES TO THE FORECAST WERE TO COOL TUE AND WED OFF...AND
DECREASE DEWPOINTS SIGNIFICANTLY DURING THAT SAME TIME PERIOD.
ADDITIONALLY...THE GFS...AS WELL AS THE EURO...HAS BEEN ADVERTISING
A REINFORCING SHOT OF COOL AIR BEHIND A WEAK BOUNDARY FORECAST TO
MOVE THROUGH THE STATE LATE THU/EARLY FRI. THE GFS IS ACTUALLY A BIT
STRONGER WITH THE FRONT AND DOES DEVELOP A WEAK PRECIPITATION SHIELD
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF ARKANSAS AS IT PASSES THROUGH. ADDED IN
SOME SLIGHT CHANCE POPS TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS BUT WOULD NOT BE AT ALL
SURPRISED TO SEE THIS END UP BEING A DRY FRONTAL PASSAGE.

TEMPERATURES WILL MODERATE A LITTLE ON THU AND FRI AS THAT
DISTURBANCE PASSES BY...BUT WILL COOL BACK OFF AS THE UPPER FLOW
AMPLIFIES AGAIN AND THE REINFORCING SHOT OF COLD AIR ARRIVES FOR THE
WEEKEND.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BATESVILLE AR     60  34  40  26 /   0  10  10  10
CAMDEN AR         61  38  49  31 /   0   0   0   0
HARRISON AR       56  31  35  24 /   0  10  10   0
HOT SPRINGS AR    60  35  44  29 /   0   0   0   0
LITTLE ROCK   AR  60  35  45  29 /   0   0   0   0
MONTICELLO AR     61  37  48  30 /   0   0   0   0
MOUNT IDA AR      59  33  43  29 /   0   0   0   0
MOUNTAIN HOME AR  58  33  36  24 /   0  10  10  10
NEWPORT AR        59  34  40  27 /   0  10  20  10
PINE BLUFF AR     59  36  45  29 /   0   0   0   0
RUSSELLVILLE AR   59  34  43  27 /   0   0   0   0
SEARCY AR         59  33  44  27 /   0  10  10  10
STUTTGART AR      59  34  44  28 /   0  10  10   0
&&

.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&

$$


AVIATION...56




000
FXUS64 KLZK 070829
AFDLZK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
229 AM CST SUN FEB 7 2016

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT

MAIN STORY IN THE SHORT TERM PERIOD WILL BE AN ARCTIC COLD FRONT
EXPECTED TO PASS THROUGH THE STATE DURING THE LATE SUNDAY AFTERNOON
TO SUNDAY NIGHT TIME FRAME. SURFACE OBSERVATIONS AND THE LATEST
MOISTURE CHANNEL IMAGERY SHOW THIS BOUNDARY MOVING THROUGH THE TEXAS
AND OKLAHOMA PANHANDLES AT THIS TIME.

BOUNDARY IS EXPECTED TO ENTER NORTHWEST ARKANSAS AROUND THE NOON
TIME HOUR...REACHING CENTRAL SECTIONS AROUND SUNSET BEFORE REACHING
THE SOUTHEAST CORNER EARLY MONDAY.

BOUNDARY WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA DRY WITH BREEZY SOUTHWEST WINDS
EXPECTED TO INCREASE IN ADVANCE OF THE FEATURE BEFORE TURNING WEST
TO NORTHWEST IN ITS WAKE. AFTERNOON HUMIDITY IS EXPECTED TO DROP
INTO THE 30TH PERCENTILE AND WITH WINDS A BIT HIGHER VERSUS PREVIOUS
DAYS...FIRE DANGER WILL REMAIN ELEVATED.

DEEP UPPER LOW WILL DROP INTO THE GREAT LAKES STATES BY MONDAY
MORNING AS STRONG UPPER RIDGE BUILDS ALONG THE WEST COAST. UPPER
FLOW BUCKLES SIGNIFICANTLY IN RESPONSE WITH A STOUT NORTHWEST FLOW
DEVELOPING FOR THE REGION.

A SECONDARY FRONT WITH A REINFORCING SHOT OF COLD AIR WILL MOVE
THROUGH ON MONDAY. THIS BOUNDARY WILL BRING A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SOME
LIGHT SNOW OR RAIN TO THE FAR NORTHEAST ZONES IN OUR COUNTY WARNING
AREA. THE CHANCES FOR ANY PRECIPITATION AT ALL ARE VERY SMALL AND NO
ACCUMULATION OF ANY TYPE IS EXPECTED.

AS A RESULT OF THIS DEEP NORTHWEST FLOW...CONSIDERABLY COLDER AIR
WILL POUR INTO THE STATE WITH HIGHS MONDAY AS MUCH AS 20 DEGREES
COLDER IN SOME SPOTS VERSUS WHAT WILL BE SEEN TODAY. A VERY BREEZY
DAY IS EXPECTED ON MONDAY AND SOME TYPE OF WIND HEADLINE IS LIKELY.
&&

LONG TERM PERIOD...TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY

MODELS REMAIN IN DECENT OVERALL AGREEMENT ON THE PATTERN DURING THE
LONG TERM...SHOWING A BROAD UPPER TROUGH IN THE EASTERN CONUS WITH
DEEP MERIDIONAL FLOW STRETCHING FROM ARKANSAS WELL INTO CENTRAL
CANADA FOR MOST OF NEXT WEEK. THERE ARE SOME DIFFERENCES IN THE
DETAILS THOUGH...WITH THE ECMWF BEING NOTABLY WARMER THAN THE GFS
AND ALSO SHOWING MORE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ALBEIT STILL FAIRLY DRY IN
THE GRAND SCHEME OF THINGS.

SUCH A PATTERN FAVORS A COOLER AND DRIER SOLUTION THAN THE ECMWF
SHOWS...WHICH HAPPENS TO BE IN LINE WITH THE GFS. WENT AHEAD AND
SHIFTED THE FORECAST TOWARDS THE GFS SOLUTION AS A RESULT. THE
RESULTING CHANGES TO THE FORECAST WERE TO COOL TUE AND WED OFF...AND
DECREASE DEWPOINTS SIGNIFICANTLY DURING THAT SAME TIME PERIOD.
ADDITIONALLY...THE GFS...AS WELL AS THE EURO...HAS BEEN ADVERTISING
A REINFORCING SHOT OF COOL AIR BEHIND A WEAK BOUNDARY FORECAST TO
MOVE THROUGH THE STATE LATE THU/EARLY FRI. THE GFS IS ACTUALLY A BIT
STRONGER WITH THE FRONT AND DOES DEVELOP A WEAK PRECIPITATION SHIELD
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF ARKANSAS AS IT PASSES THROUGH. ADDED IN
SOME SLIGHT CHANCE POPS TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS BUT WOULD NOT BE AT ALL
SURPRISED TO SEE THIS END UP BEING A DRY FRONTAL PASSAGE.

TEMPERATURES WILL MODERATE A LITTLE ON THU AND FRI AS THAT
DISTURBANCE PASSES BY...BUT WILL COOL BACK OFF AS THE UPPER FLOW
AMPLIFIES AGAIN AND THE REINFORCING SHOT OF COLD AIR ARRIVES FOR THE
WEEKEND.
&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BATESVILLE AR     60  34  40  26 /   0  10  10  10
CAMDEN AR         61  38  49  31 /   0   0   0   0
HARRISON AR       56  31  35  24 /   0  10  10   0
HOT SPRINGS AR    60  35  44  29 /   0   0   0   0
LITTLE ROCK   AR  60  35  45  29 /   0   0   0   0
MONTICELLO AR     61  37  48  30 /   0   0   0   0
MOUNT IDA AR      59  33  43  29 /   0   0   0   0
MOUNTAIN HOME AR  58  33  36  24 /   0  10  10  10
NEWPORT AR        59  34  40  27 /   0  10  20  10
PINE BLUFF AR     59  36  45  29 /   0   0   0   0
RUSSELLVILLE AR   59  34  43  27 /   0   0   0   0
SEARCY AR         59  33  44  27 /   0  10  10  10
STUTTGART AR      59  34  44  28 /   0  10  10   0
&&

.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...56 / LONG TERM...64




000
FXUS64 KLZK 070530
AFDLZK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
1130 PM CST SAT FEB 6 2016

.AVIATION...

LIGHT SRLY TO VRB WINDS WILL BE SEEN OVERNIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE
SLOWLY SHIFTS EAST. SRLY TO SW WINDS WILL INCREASE SOME FOR SUN
AFTERNOON. STRONGER WEST AND NW WINDS WILL BE SEEN AFTER SUNSET AS
A STRONG COLD FRONT DROPS SE INTO THE STATE. THE STRONGEST WINDS
WILL BE AT THE NRN TERMINALS. VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
THE PERIOD.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 446 PM CST SAT FEB 6 2016/

DISCUSSION...

UPDATED TO INCLUDE THE 00Z AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW...

AVIATION...

LIGHT SRLY TO VRB WINDS WILL BE SEEN OVERNIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE
SLOWLY SHIFTS EAST. SRLY TO SW WINDS WILL INCREASE SOME FOR SUN
AFTERNOON. VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE PERIOD.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 229 PM CST SAT FEB 6 2016/

SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY

AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL MOVE INTO THE ARKANSAS AREA TONIGHT.
ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL DROP OUT OF CANADA SUNDAY. BY
MONDAY AFTERNOON THE BLOCKING UPPER RIDGE WILL CONTINUE OVER THE
WEST COAST AND THE UPPER LOW WILL MOVE INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION.

HIGH CLOUDS HAVE DIMINISHED THROUGH THE DAY. A FEW CUMULUS CLOUDS
HAVE DEVELOPED SOUTH AND NORTHWEST AND THESE WILL DISSIPATE AT
SUNSET. EXPECT CLEAR SKIES OVER THE AREA TONIGHT WITH HIGH
PRESSURE IN CONTROL. A DRY COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE STATE
SUNDAY. ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE STATE MONDAY AND
THIS WILL BRING A SLIGHT CHANCE OF LIGHT SNOW OR RAIN TO THE FAR
NORTH...CHANGING TO ALL RAIN BY LATE MORNING. NORTHEAST SECTIONS
SHOULD BE ALL RAIN. AFTER HIGHS IN THE 50S AND 60S SUNDAY...EXPECT
HIGHS IN THE 30S AND 40S ON MONDAY.

LONG TERM...MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY

WELL...I WISH I HAD A LITTLE MORE TO TALK ABOUT...BUT TODAY/S
DISCUSSION IS AWFULLY SIMILAR TO WHAT I WROTE YESTERDAY. HERE GOES.

NORTHERLY/NORTHWEST UPPER FLOW WILL SEND SEVERAL WEAK SYSTEMS
THROUGH THE AREA DURING THE LONG TERM PERIOD. HOWEVER...WITH LITTLE
BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE TO WORK WITH...THERE WILL BE LITTLE TO NO
APPRECIABLE PRECIPITATION CHANCES. THERE WILL BE A WEAK FRONTAL
BOUNDARY MOVING THROUGH SOME TIME LATE THURSDAY OR EARLY FRIDAY.
THIS WILL BRING A REINFORCING SHOT OF COOL AIR INTO THE REGION.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BATESVILLE AR     36  58  34  40 /   0   0  10  20
CAMDEN AR         28  60  38  49 /   0   0   0   0
HARRISON AR       31  55  31  36 /   0   0  10  10
HOT SPRINGS AR    31  59  35  45 /   0   0   0   0
LITTLE ROCK   AR  28  59  35  45 /   0   0   0  10
MONTICELLO AR     28  59  37  48 /   0   0   0  10
MOUNT IDA AR      27  58  33  44 /   0   0   0   0
MOUNTAIN HOME AR  31  56  33  37 /   0   0  10  20
NEWPORT AR        28  58  34  41 /   0   0  10  20
PINE BLUFF AR     30  58  36  46 /   0   0   0  10
RUSSELLVILLE AR   27  59  34  44 /   0   0   0  10
SEARCY AR         26  57  33  43 /   0   0  10  10
STUTTGART AR      34  58  34  45 /   0   0   0  10
&&

.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&

$$


AVIATION...56



000
FXUS64 KLZK 070530
AFDLZK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
1130 PM CST SAT FEB 6 2016

.AVIATION...

LIGHT SRLY TO VRB WINDS WILL BE SEEN OVERNIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE
SLOWLY SHIFTS EAST. SRLY TO SW WINDS WILL INCREASE SOME FOR SUN
AFTERNOON. STRONGER WEST AND NW WINDS WILL BE SEEN AFTER SUNSET AS
A STRONG COLD FRONT DROPS SE INTO THE STATE. THE STRONGEST WINDS
WILL BE AT THE NRN TERMINALS. VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
THE PERIOD.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 446 PM CST SAT FEB 6 2016/

DISCUSSION...

UPDATED TO INCLUDE THE 00Z AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW...

AVIATION...

LIGHT SRLY TO VRB WINDS WILL BE SEEN OVERNIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE
SLOWLY SHIFTS EAST. SRLY TO SW WINDS WILL INCREASE SOME FOR SUN
AFTERNOON. VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE PERIOD.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 229 PM CST SAT FEB 6 2016/

SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY

AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL MOVE INTO THE ARKANSAS AREA TONIGHT.
ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL DROP OUT OF CANADA SUNDAY. BY
MONDAY AFTERNOON THE BLOCKING UPPER RIDGE WILL CONTINUE OVER THE
WEST COAST AND THE UPPER LOW WILL MOVE INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION.

HIGH CLOUDS HAVE DIMINISHED THROUGH THE DAY. A FEW CUMULUS CLOUDS
HAVE DEVELOPED SOUTH AND NORTHWEST AND THESE WILL DISSIPATE AT
SUNSET. EXPECT CLEAR SKIES OVER THE AREA TONIGHT WITH HIGH
PRESSURE IN CONTROL. A DRY COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE STATE
SUNDAY. ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE STATE MONDAY AND
THIS WILL BRING A SLIGHT CHANCE OF LIGHT SNOW OR RAIN TO THE FAR
NORTH...CHANGING TO ALL RAIN BY LATE MORNING. NORTHEAST SECTIONS
SHOULD BE ALL RAIN. AFTER HIGHS IN THE 50S AND 60S SUNDAY...EXPECT
HIGHS IN THE 30S AND 40S ON MONDAY.

LONG TERM...MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY

WELL...I WISH I HAD A LITTLE MORE TO TALK ABOUT...BUT TODAY/S
DISCUSSION IS AWFULLY SIMILAR TO WHAT I WROTE YESTERDAY. HERE GOES.

NORTHERLY/NORTHWEST UPPER FLOW WILL SEND SEVERAL WEAK SYSTEMS
THROUGH THE AREA DURING THE LONG TERM PERIOD. HOWEVER...WITH LITTLE
BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE TO WORK WITH...THERE WILL BE LITTLE TO NO
APPRECIABLE PRECIPITATION CHANCES. THERE WILL BE A WEAK FRONTAL
BOUNDARY MOVING THROUGH SOME TIME LATE THURSDAY OR EARLY FRIDAY.
THIS WILL BRING A REINFORCING SHOT OF COOL AIR INTO THE REGION.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BATESVILLE AR     36  58  34  40 /   0   0  10  20
CAMDEN AR         28  60  38  49 /   0   0   0   0
HARRISON AR       31  55  31  36 /   0   0  10  10
HOT SPRINGS AR    31  59  35  45 /   0   0   0   0
LITTLE ROCK   AR  28  59  35  45 /   0   0   0  10
MONTICELLO AR     28  59  37  48 /   0   0   0  10
MOUNT IDA AR      27  58  33  44 /   0   0   0   0
MOUNTAIN HOME AR  31  56  33  37 /   0   0  10  20
NEWPORT AR        28  58  34  41 /   0   0  10  20
PINE BLUFF AR     30  58  36  46 /   0   0   0  10
RUSSELLVILLE AR   27  59  34  44 /   0   0   0  10
SEARCY AR         26  57  33  43 /   0   0  10  10
STUTTGART AR      34  58  34  45 /   0   0   0  10
&&

.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&

$$


AVIATION...56




000
FXUS64 KLZK 070530
AFDLZK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
1130 PM CST SAT FEB 6 2016

.AVIATION...

LIGHT SRLY TO VRB WINDS WILL BE SEEN OVERNIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE
SLOWLY SHIFTS EAST. SRLY TO SW WINDS WILL INCREASE SOME FOR SUN
AFTERNOON. STRONGER WEST AND NW WINDS WILL BE SEEN AFTER SUNSET AS
A STRONG COLD FRONT DROPS SE INTO THE STATE. THE STRONGEST WINDS
WILL BE AT THE NRN TERMINALS. VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
THE PERIOD.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 446 PM CST SAT FEB 6 2016/

DISCUSSION...

UPDATED TO INCLUDE THE 00Z AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW...

AVIATION...

LIGHT SRLY TO VRB WINDS WILL BE SEEN OVERNIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE
SLOWLY SHIFTS EAST. SRLY TO SW WINDS WILL INCREASE SOME FOR SUN
AFTERNOON. VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE PERIOD.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 229 PM CST SAT FEB 6 2016/

SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY

AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL MOVE INTO THE ARKANSAS AREA TONIGHT.
ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL DROP OUT OF CANADA SUNDAY. BY
MONDAY AFTERNOON THE BLOCKING UPPER RIDGE WILL CONTINUE OVER THE
WEST COAST AND THE UPPER LOW WILL MOVE INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION.

HIGH CLOUDS HAVE DIMINISHED THROUGH THE DAY. A FEW CUMULUS CLOUDS
HAVE DEVELOPED SOUTH AND NORTHWEST AND THESE WILL DISSIPATE AT
SUNSET. EXPECT CLEAR SKIES OVER THE AREA TONIGHT WITH HIGH
PRESSURE IN CONTROL. A DRY COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE STATE
SUNDAY. ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE STATE MONDAY AND
THIS WILL BRING A SLIGHT CHANCE OF LIGHT SNOW OR RAIN TO THE FAR
NORTH...CHANGING TO ALL RAIN BY LATE MORNING. NORTHEAST SECTIONS
SHOULD BE ALL RAIN. AFTER HIGHS IN THE 50S AND 60S SUNDAY...EXPECT
HIGHS IN THE 30S AND 40S ON MONDAY.

LONG TERM...MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY

WELL...I WISH I HAD A LITTLE MORE TO TALK ABOUT...BUT TODAY/S
DISCUSSION IS AWFULLY SIMILAR TO WHAT I WROTE YESTERDAY. HERE GOES.

NORTHERLY/NORTHWEST UPPER FLOW WILL SEND SEVERAL WEAK SYSTEMS
THROUGH THE AREA DURING THE LONG TERM PERIOD. HOWEVER...WITH LITTLE
BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE TO WORK WITH...THERE WILL BE LITTLE TO NO
APPRECIABLE PRECIPITATION CHANCES. THERE WILL BE A WEAK FRONTAL
BOUNDARY MOVING THROUGH SOME TIME LATE THURSDAY OR EARLY FRIDAY.
THIS WILL BRING A REINFORCING SHOT OF COOL AIR INTO THE REGION.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BATESVILLE AR     36  58  34  40 /   0   0  10  20
CAMDEN AR         28  60  38  49 /   0   0   0   0
HARRISON AR       31  55  31  36 /   0   0  10  10
HOT SPRINGS AR    31  59  35  45 /   0   0   0   0
LITTLE ROCK   AR  28  59  35  45 /   0   0   0  10
MONTICELLO AR     28  59  37  48 /   0   0   0  10
MOUNT IDA AR      27  58  33  44 /   0   0   0   0
MOUNTAIN HOME AR  31  56  33  37 /   0   0  10  20
NEWPORT AR        28  58  34  41 /   0   0  10  20
PINE BLUFF AR     30  58  36  46 /   0   0   0  10
RUSSELLVILLE AR   27  59  34  44 /   0   0   0  10
SEARCY AR         26  57  33  43 /   0   0  10  10
STUTTGART AR      34  58  34  45 /   0   0   0  10
&&

.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&

$$


AVIATION...56




000
FXUS64 KLZK 062246 AAA
AFDLZK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
446 PM CST SAT FEB 6 2016

.DISCUSSION...

UPDATED TO INCLUDE THE 00Z AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW...

&&

.AVIATION...

LIGHT SRLY TO VRB WINDS WILL BE SEEN OVERNIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE
SLOWLY SHIFTS EAST. SRLY TO SW WINDS WILL INCREASE SOME FOR SUN
AFTERNOON. VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 229 PM CST SAT FEB 6 2016/

SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY

AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL MOVE INTO THE ARKANSAS AREA TONIGHT.
ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL DROP OUT OF CANADA SUNDAY. BY
MONDAY AFTERNOON THE BLOCKING UPPER RIDGE WILL CONTINUE OVER THE
WEST COAST AND THE UPPER LOW WILL MOVE INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION.

HIGH CLOUDS HAVE DIMINISHED THROUGH THE DAY. A FEW CUMULUS CLOUDS
HAVE DEVELOPED SOUTH AND NORTHWEST AND THESE WILL DISSIPATE AT
SUNSET. EXPECT CLEAR SKIES OVER THE AREA TONIGHT WITH HIGH
PRESSURE IN CONTROL. A DRY COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE STATE
SUNDAY. ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE STATE MONDAY AND
THIS WILL BRING A SLIGHT CHANCE OF LIGHT SNOW OR RAIN TO THE FAR
NORTH...CHANGING TO ALL RAIN BY LATE MORNING. NORTHEAST SECTIONS
SHOULD BE ALL RAIN. AFTER HIGHS IN THE 50S AND 60S SUNDAY...EXPECT
HIGHS IN THE 30S AND 40S ON MONDAY.

LONG TERM...MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY

WELL...I WISH I HAD A LITTLE MORE TO TALK ABOUT...BUT TODAY/S
DISCUSSION IS AWFULLY SIMILAR TO WHAT I WROTE YESTERDAY. HERE GOES.

NORTHERLY/NORTHWEST UPPER FLOW WILL SEND SEVERAL WEAK SYSTEMS
THROUGH THE AREA DURING THE LONG TERM PERIOD. HOWEVER...WITH LITTLE
BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE TO WORK WITH...THERE WILL BE LITTLE TO NO
APPRECIABLE PRECIPITATION CHANCES. THERE WILL BE A WEAK FRONTAL
BOUNDARY MOVING THROUGH SOME TIME LATE THURSDAY OR EARLY FRIDAY.
THIS WILL BRING A REINFORCING SHOT OF COOL AIR INTO THE REGION.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BATESVILLE AR     36  58  34  40 /   0   0  10  20
CAMDEN AR         33  60  38  49 /   0   0   0   0
HARRISON AR       34  55  31  36 /   0   0  10  10
HOT SPRINGS AR    33  59  35  45 /   0   0   0   0
LITTLE ROCK   AR  33  59  35  45 /   0   0   0  10
MONTICELLO AR     33  59  37  48 /   0   0   0  10
MOUNT IDA AR      32  58  33  44 /   0   0   0   0
MOUNTAIN HOME AR  34  56  33  37 /   0   0  10  20
NEWPORT AR        32  58  34  41 /   0   0  10  20
PINE BLUFF AR     33  58  36  46 /   0   0   0  10
RUSSELLVILLE AR   31  59  34  44 /   0   0   0  10
SEARCY AR         31  57  33  43 /   0   0  10  10
STUTTGART AR      32  58  34  45 /   0   0   0  10
&&

.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&

$$


AVIATION...62



000
FXUS64 KLZK 062246 AAA
AFDLZK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
446 PM CST SAT FEB 6 2016

.DISCUSSION...

UPDATED TO INCLUDE THE 00Z AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW...

&&

.AVIATION...

LIGHT SRLY TO VRB WINDS WILL BE SEEN OVERNIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE
SLOWLY SHIFTS EAST. SRLY TO SW WINDS WILL INCREASE SOME FOR SUN
AFTERNOON. VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 229 PM CST SAT FEB 6 2016/

SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY

AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL MOVE INTO THE ARKANSAS AREA TONIGHT.
ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL DROP OUT OF CANADA SUNDAY. BY
MONDAY AFTERNOON THE BLOCKING UPPER RIDGE WILL CONTINUE OVER THE
WEST COAST AND THE UPPER LOW WILL MOVE INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION.

HIGH CLOUDS HAVE DIMINISHED THROUGH THE DAY. A FEW CUMULUS CLOUDS
HAVE DEVELOPED SOUTH AND NORTHWEST AND THESE WILL DISSIPATE AT
SUNSET. EXPECT CLEAR SKIES OVER THE AREA TONIGHT WITH HIGH
PRESSURE IN CONTROL. A DRY COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE STATE
SUNDAY. ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE STATE MONDAY AND
THIS WILL BRING A SLIGHT CHANCE OF LIGHT SNOW OR RAIN TO THE FAR
NORTH...CHANGING TO ALL RAIN BY LATE MORNING. NORTHEAST SECTIONS
SHOULD BE ALL RAIN. AFTER HIGHS IN THE 50S AND 60S SUNDAY...EXPECT
HIGHS IN THE 30S AND 40S ON MONDAY.

LONG TERM...MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY

WELL...I WISH I HAD A LITTLE MORE TO TALK ABOUT...BUT TODAY/S
DISCUSSION IS AWFULLY SIMILAR TO WHAT I WROTE YESTERDAY. HERE GOES.

NORTHERLY/NORTHWEST UPPER FLOW WILL SEND SEVERAL WEAK SYSTEMS
THROUGH THE AREA DURING THE LONG TERM PERIOD. HOWEVER...WITH LITTLE
BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE TO WORK WITH...THERE WILL BE LITTLE TO NO
APPRECIABLE PRECIPITATION CHANCES. THERE WILL BE A WEAK FRONTAL
BOUNDARY MOVING THROUGH SOME TIME LATE THURSDAY OR EARLY FRIDAY.
THIS WILL BRING A REINFORCING SHOT OF COOL AIR INTO THE REGION.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BATESVILLE AR     36  58  34  40 /   0   0  10  20
CAMDEN AR         33  60  38  49 /   0   0   0   0
HARRISON AR       34  55  31  36 /   0   0  10  10
HOT SPRINGS AR    33  59  35  45 /   0   0   0   0
LITTLE ROCK   AR  33  59  35  45 /   0   0   0  10
MONTICELLO AR     33  59  37  48 /   0   0   0  10
MOUNT IDA AR      32  58  33  44 /   0   0   0   0
MOUNTAIN HOME AR  34  56  33  37 /   0   0  10  20
NEWPORT AR        32  58  34  41 /   0   0  10  20
PINE BLUFF AR     33  58  36  46 /   0   0   0  10
RUSSELLVILLE AR   31  59  34  44 /   0   0   0  10
SEARCY AR         31  57  33  43 /   0   0  10  10
STUTTGART AR      32  58  34  45 /   0   0   0  10
&&

.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&

$$


AVIATION...62




000
FXUS64 KLZK 062246 AAA
AFDLZK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
446 PM CST SAT FEB 6 2016

.DISCUSSION...

UPDATED TO INCLUDE THE 00Z AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW...

&&

.AVIATION...

LIGHT SRLY TO VRB WINDS WILL BE SEEN OVERNIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE
SLOWLY SHIFTS EAST. SRLY TO SW WINDS WILL INCREASE SOME FOR SUN
AFTERNOON. VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 229 PM CST SAT FEB 6 2016/

SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY

AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL MOVE INTO THE ARKANSAS AREA TONIGHT.
ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL DROP OUT OF CANADA SUNDAY. BY
MONDAY AFTERNOON THE BLOCKING UPPER RIDGE WILL CONTINUE OVER THE
WEST COAST AND THE UPPER LOW WILL MOVE INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION.

HIGH CLOUDS HAVE DIMINISHED THROUGH THE DAY. A FEW CUMULUS CLOUDS
HAVE DEVELOPED SOUTH AND NORTHWEST AND THESE WILL DISSIPATE AT
SUNSET. EXPECT CLEAR SKIES OVER THE AREA TONIGHT WITH HIGH
PRESSURE IN CONTROL. A DRY COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE STATE
SUNDAY. ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE STATE MONDAY AND
THIS WILL BRING A SLIGHT CHANCE OF LIGHT SNOW OR RAIN TO THE FAR
NORTH...CHANGING TO ALL RAIN BY LATE MORNING. NORTHEAST SECTIONS
SHOULD BE ALL RAIN. AFTER HIGHS IN THE 50S AND 60S SUNDAY...EXPECT
HIGHS IN THE 30S AND 40S ON MONDAY.

LONG TERM...MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY

WELL...I WISH I HAD A LITTLE MORE TO TALK ABOUT...BUT TODAY/S
DISCUSSION IS AWFULLY SIMILAR TO WHAT I WROTE YESTERDAY. HERE GOES.

NORTHERLY/NORTHWEST UPPER FLOW WILL SEND SEVERAL WEAK SYSTEMS
THROUGH THE AREA DURING THE LONG TERM PERIOD. HOWEVER...WITH LITTLE
BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE TO WORK WITH...THERE WILL BE LITTLE TO NO
APPRECIABLE PRECIPITATION CHANCES. THERE WILL BE A WEAK FRONTAL
BOUNDARY MOVING THROUGH SOME TIME LATE THURSDAY OR EARLY FRIDAY.
THIS WILL BRING A REINFORCING SHOT OF COOL AIR INTO THE REGION.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BATESVILLE AR     36  58  34  40 /   0   0  10  20
CAMDEN AR         33  60  38  49 /   0   0   0   0
HARRISON AR       34  55  31  36 /   0   0  10  10
HOT SPRINGS AR    33  59  35  45 /   0   0   0   0
LITTLE ROCK   AR  33  59  35  45 /   0   0   0  10
MONTICELLO AR     33  59  37  48 /   0   0   0  10
MOUNT IDA AR      32  58  33  44 /   0   0   0   0
MOUNTAIN HOME AR  34  56  33  37 /   0   0  10  20
NEWPORT AR        32  58  34  41 /   0   0  10  20
PINE BLUFF AR     33  58  36  46 /   0   0   0  10
RUSSELLVILLE AR   31  59  34  44 /   0   0   0  10
SEARCY AR         31  57  33  43 /   0   0  10  10
STUTTGART AR      32  58  34  45 /   0   0   0  10
&&

.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&

$$


AVIATION...62




000
FXUS64 KLZK 062029
AFDLZK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
229 PM CST SAT FEB 6 2016

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY
AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL MOVE INTO THE ARKANSAS AREA TONIGHT.
ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL DROP OUT OF CANADA SUNDAY. BY
MONDAY AFTERNOON THE BLOCKING UPPER RIDGE WILL CONTINUE OVER THE
WEST COAST AND THE UPPER LOW WILL MOVE INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION.

HIGH CLOUDS HAVE DIMINISHED THROUGH THE DAY. A FEW CUMULUS CLOUDS
HAVE DEVELOPED SOUTH AND NORTHWEST AND THESE WILL DISSIPATE AT
SUNSET. EXPECT CLEAR SKIES OVER THE AREA TONIGHT WITH HIGH
PRESSURE IN CONTROL. A DRY COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE STATE
SUNDAY. ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE STATE MONDAY AND
THIS WILL BRING A SLIGHT CHANCE OF LIGHT SNOW OR RAIN TO THE FAR
NORTH...CHANGING TO ALL RAIN BY LATE MORNING. NORTHEAST SECTIONS
SHOULD BE ALL RAIN. AFTER HIGHS IN THE 50S AND 60S SUNDAY...EXPECT
HIGHS IN THE 30S AND 40S ON MONDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM...MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY
WELL...I WISH I HAD A LITTLE MORE TO TALK ABOUT...BUT TODAY/S
DISCUSSION IS AWFULLY SIMILAR TO WHAT I WROTE YESTERDAY. HERE GOES.

NORTHERLY/NORTHWEST UPPER FLOW WILL SEND SEVERAL WEAK SYSTEMS
THROUGH THE AREA DURING THE LONG TERM PERIOD. HOWEVER...WITH LITTLE
BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE TO WORK WITH...THERE WILL BE LITTLE TO NO
APPRECIABLE PRECIPITATION CHANCES. THERE WILL BE A WEAK FRONTAL
BOUNDARY MOVING THROUGH SOME TIME LATE THURSDAY OR EARLY FRIDAY.
THIS WILL BRING A REINFORCING SHOT OF COOL AIR INTO THE REGION.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BATESVILLE AR     32  59  33  42 /   0   0  10  20
CAMDEN AR         31  60  35  50 /   0   0   0  10
HARRISON AR       32  57  30  38 /   0   0  10  10
HOT SPRINGS AR    32  60  33  48 /   0   0   0  10
LITTLE ROCK   AR  32  60  34  46 /   0   0  10  10
MONTICELLO AR     31  60  36  50 /   0   0  10  10
MOUNT IDA AR      31  60  32  48 /   0   0   0  10
MOUNTAIN HOME AR  32  57  31  39 /   0   0  10  20
NEWPORT AR        31  59  33  43 /   0   0  10  20
PINE BLUFF AR     32  60  35  49 /   0   0  10  10
RUSSELLVILLE AR   31  58  32  43 /   0   0  10  10
SEARCY AR         30  59  33  44 /   0   0  10  10
STUTTGART AR      31  59  34  47 /   0   0  10  10
&&

.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...51 / LONG TERM...57




000
FXUS64 KLZK 061808
AFDLZK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
1208 PM CST SAT FEB 6 2016

.UPDATE...
HIGH PRESSURE AND SUNNY SKIES WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE AREA TODAY.
DECREASED CLOUD COVER AND INCREASED TEMPERATURES A COUPLE OF
DEGREES.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1140 AM CST SAT FEB 6 2016/

AVIATION...
HIGH PRESSURE IS OVER ARKANSAS WITH AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IN
EAST TEXAS. A FEW HIGH CLOUDS WILL EXIT NORTHEAST AND SOUTHERN
ARKANSAS THIS AFTERNOON. LIGHT WINDS AND CLEAR SKIES ARE EXPECTED
TONIGHT. VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 606 AM CST SAT FEB 6 2016/

AVIATION...
A WEAK DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE SOUTH OF THE STATE TODAY SPREADING
HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE OVER THE TERMINALS. WIDESPREAD VFR CONDITIONS
ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE WITH LIGHT WINDS.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 224 AM CST SAT FEB 6 2016/

SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT
MODELS REMAIN CONSISTENT IN ADVERTISING A SPLIT FLOW PATTERN
ACROSS THE COUNTRY WITH A STORM SYSTEM CURRENTLY GETTING CUT OFF
ALONG THE RED RIVER. SYSTEM CLEARLY VISIBLE ON MOISTURE CHANNEL
IMAGERY AT THIS TIME WITH ASSOCIATED UPPER TROUGH EXTENDING
NORTHEAST TO THE GREAT LAKES STATES.

REGIONAL RADARS CONTINUE TO SHOW SOME GENERALLY LIGHT RETURNS OVER
EASTERN OKLAHOMA  BUT SURFACE OBSERVATIONS SHOW LITTLE IF ANY IS
REACHING THE GROUND WITH TEMPERATURE DEW POINT SPREADS ANYWHERE
FROM 6 TO 12 DEGREES.

ALL HIGH RESOLUTION AND EVEN THE SYNOPTIC SCALE MODELS TAKE THIS CUT
OFF LOW TO THE SOUTH OF THE US AND AS SUCH THE DRY FORECAST WILL
CONTINUE. AFTERNOON HUMIDITY IS EXPECTED TO DROP INTO THE 30S AND
WITH THE ENTIRE STATE NOW LISTED IN MODERATE FIRE DANGER CATEGORY...
A FIRE DANGER STATEMENT WILL BE ISSUED.

UPPER TROUGH AXIS WILL CLEAR THE AREA TONIGHT WITH WEAK UPPER RIDGE
BUILDING IN. THIS FEATURE WILL BE SHUNTED QUICKLY OFF TO THE EAST
ON SUNDAY AS ATTENTION TURNS TO AN APPROACHING ARCTIC FRONT. AFTER
A SLIGHTLY WARMER DAY AND BREEZIER DAY SUNDAY...THE FRONT WILL
MOVE THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING WITH CONSIDERABLY COLDER AIR SPILLING
IN FOR THE EXTENDED PERIOD. IT LOOKS LIKE THE FRONT WILL MOVE
THROUGH DRY WITH EVEN FLURRIES HARD TO COME BY ALTHOUGH A FEW CAN
NOT RULED OUT.

LONG TERM PERIOD...MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY
OVERALL...THE LONG TERM PERIOD WILL FEATURE RATHER BENIGN
WEATHER. MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT SHOWING A LARGE TROUGH
CARVING OUT A HOME ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE LOWER 48.
NORTHERLY FLOW FROM THE SURFACE THROUGH THE UPPER LEVELS WILL
USHER IN A FAIRLY COLD AIR MASS TO START THE PERIOD OFF...AND A
DISTURBANCE PASSING BY EARLY MONDAY MAY BE ENOUGH TO SQUEEZE OUT
SOME FLURRIES ACROSS FAR NORTHERN ARKANSAS DURING THE MORNING
HOURS. OTHERWISE THE LONG TERM LOOKS TO BE DRY.

BY THURSDAY THE UPPER FLOW WILL FLATTEN OUT SOMEWHAT...ALLOWING AN
UPPER RIDGE TO START TO BUILD IN FROM THE WEST AND FOR REGIONAL
TEMPERATURES TO MODERATE SOME. THIS WILL BE AIDED BY A WEAK SYSTEM
APPROACHING FROM THE WEST AND TURNING WINDS BACK TO A MORE SOUTHERLY
DIRECTION FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...WITH HIGHS EXPECTED TO CLIMB
BACK ABOVE 60 DEGREES FOR PARTS OF SOUTHERN AND WESTERN ARKANSAS
THOSE DAYS. THE WARM UP DOES NOT LOOK TO LAST LONG THOUGH AS THE
THU/FRI SYSTEM WILL FINALLY PUSH SOUTH OF THE AREA LATE
FRIDAY...ALLOWING A REINFORCING SHOT OF COLD AIR TO ARRIVE JUST
BEYOND THE PERIOD.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BATESVILLE AR     56  35  58  33 /   0   0   0  10
CAMDEN AR         55  32  59  35 /  10   0   0   0
HARRISON AR       55  32  55  29 /   0   0   0   0
HOT SPRINGS AR    56  33  58  34 /  10   0   0   0
LITTLE ROCK   AR  56  33  59  34 /  10   0   0   0
MONTICELLO AR     55  33  59  36 /  10   0   0   0
MOUNT IDA AR      56  32  58  32 /  10   0   0   0
MOUNTAIN HOME AR  56  33  56  31 /   0   0   0  10
NEWPORT AR        55  32  57  34 /   0   0   0  10
PINE BLUFF AR     55  33  58  35 /  10   0   0   0
RUSSELLVILLE AR   56  31  59  32 /  10   0   0   0
SEARCY AR         55  31  58  32 /   0   0   0  10
STUTTGART AR      55  32  58  35 /  10   0   0   0
&&

.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&

$$

51




000
FXUS64 KLZK 061808
AFDLZK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
1208 PM CST SAT FEB 6 2016

.UPDATE...
HIGH PRESSURE AND SUNNY SKIES WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE AREA TODAY.
DECREASED CLOUD COVER AND INCREASED TEMPERATURES A COUPLE OF
DEGREES.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1140 AM CST SAT FEB 6 2016/

AVIATION...
HIGH PRESSURE IS OVER ARKANSAS WITH AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IN
EAST TEXAS. A FEW HIGH CLOUDS WILL EXIT NORTHEAST AND SOUTHERN
ARKANSAS THIS AFTERNOON. LIGHT WINDS AND CLEAR SKIES ARE EXPECTED
TONIGHT. VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 606 AM CST SAT FEB 6 2016/

AVIATION...
A WEAK DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE SOUTH OF THE STATE TODAY SPREADING
HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE OVER THE TERMINALS. WIDESPREAD VFR CONDITIONS
ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE WITH LIGHT WINDS.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 224 AM CST SAT FEB 6 2016/

SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT
MODELS REMAIN CONSISTENT IN ADVERTISING A SPLIT FLOW PATTERN
ACROSS THE COUNTRY WITH A STORM SYSTEM CURRENTLY GETTING CUT OFF
ALONG THE RED RIVER. SYSTEM CLEARLY VISIBLE ON MOISTURE CHANNEL
IMAGERY AT THIS TIME WITH ASSOCIATED UPPER TROUGH EXTENDING
NORTHEAST TO THE GREAT LAKES STATES.

REGIONAL RADARS CONTINUE TO SHOW SOME GENERALLY LIGHT RETURNS OVER
EASTERN OKLAHOMA  BUT SURFACE OBSERVATIONS SHOW LITTLE IF ANY IS
REACHING THE GROUND WITH TEMPERATURE DEW POINT SPREADS ANYWHERE
FROM 6 TO 12 DEGREES.

ALL HIGH RESOLUTION AND EVEN THE SYNOPTIC SCALE MODELS TAKE THIS CUT
OFF LOW TO THE SOUTH OF THE US AND AS SUCH THE DRY FORECAST WILL
CONTINUE. AFTERNOON HUMIDITY IS EXPECTED TO DROP INTO THE 30S AND
WITH THE ENTIRE STATE NOW LISTED IN MODERATE FIRE DANGER CATEGORY...
A FIRE DANGER STATEMENT WILL BE ISSUED.

UPPER TROUGH AXIS WILL CLEAR THE AREA TONIGHT WITH WEAK UPPER RIDGE
BUILDING IN. THIS FEATURE WILL BE SHUNTED QUICKLY OFF TO THE EAST
ON SUNDAY AS ATTENTION TURNS TO AN APPROACHING ARCTIC FRONT. AFTER
A SLIGHTLY WARMER DAY AND BREEZIER DAY SUNDAY...THE FRONT WILL
MOVE THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING WITH CONSIDERABLY COLDER AIR SPILLING
IN FOR THE EXTENDED PERIOD. IT LOOKS LIKE THE FRONT WILL MOVE
THROUGH DRY WITH EVEN FLURRIES HARD TO COME BY ALTHOUGH A FEW CAN
NOT RULED OUT.

LONG TERM PERIOD...MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY
OVERALL...THE LONG TERM PERIOD WILL FEATURE RATHER BENIGN
WEATHER. MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT SHOWING A LARGE TROUGH
CARVING OUT A HOME ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE LOWER 48.
NORTHERLY FLOW FROM THE SURFACE THROUGH THE UPPER LEVELS WILL
USHER IN A FAIRLY COLD AIR MASS TO START THE PERIOD OFF...AND A
DISTURBANCE PASSING BY EARLY MONDAY MAY BE ENOUGH TO SQUEEZE OUT
SOME FLURRIES ACROSS FAR NORTHERN ARKANSAS DURING THE MORNING
HOURS. OTHERWISE THE LONG TERM LOOKS TO BE DRY.

BY THURSDAY THE UPPER FLOW WILL FLATTEN OUT SOMEWHAT...ALLOWING AN
UPPER RIDGE TO START TO BUILD IN FROM THE WEST AND FOR REGIONAL
TEMPERATURES TO MODERATE SOME. THIS WILL BE AIDED BY A WEAK SYSTEM
APPROACHING FROM THE WEST AND TURNING WINDS BACK TO A MORE SOUTHERLY
DIRECTION FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...WITH HIGHS EXPECTED TO CLIMB
BACK ABOVE 60 DEGREES FOR PARTS OF SOUTHERN AND WESTERN ARKANSAS
THOSE DAYS. THE WARM UP DOES NOT LOOK TO LAST LONG THOUGH AS THE
THU/FRI SYSTEM WILL FINALLY PUSH SOUTH OF THE AREA LATE
FRIDAY...ALLOWING A REINFORCING SHOT OF COLD AIR TO ARRIVE JUST
BEYOND THE PERIOD.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BATESVILLE AR     56  35  58  33 /   0   0   0  10
CAMDEN AR         55  32  59  35 /  10   0   0   0
HARRISON AR       55  32  55  29 /   0   0   0   0
HOT SPRINGS AR    56  33  58  34 /  10   0   0   0
LITTLE ROCK   AR  56  33  59  34 /  10   0   0   0
MONTICELLO AR     55  33  59  36 /  10   0   0   0
MOUNT IDA AR      56  32  58  32 /  10   0   0   0
MOUNTAIN HOME AR  56  33  56  31 /   0   0   0  10
NEWPORT AR        55  32  57  34 /   0   0   0  10
PINE BLUFF AR     55  33  58  35 /  10   0   0   0
RUSSELLVILLE AR   56  31  59  32 /  10   0   0   0
SEARCY AR         55  31  58  32 /   0   0   0  10
STUTTGART AR      55  32  58  35 /  10   0   0   0
&&

.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&

$$

51




000
FXUS64 KLZK 061808
AFDLZK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
1208 PM CST SAT FEB 6 2016

.UPDATE...
HIGH PRESSURE AND SUNNY SKIES WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE AREA TODAY.
DECREASED CLOUD COVER AND INCREASED TEMPERATURES A COUPLE OF
DEGREES.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1140 AM CST SAT FEB 6 2016/

AVIATION...
HIGH PRESSURE IS OVER ARKANSAS WITH AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IN
EAST TEXAS. A FEW HIGH CLOUDS WILL EXIT NORTHEAST AND SOUTHERN
ARKANSAS THIS AFTERNOON. LIGHT WINDS AND CLEAR SKIES ARE EXPECTED
TONIGHT. VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 606 AM CST SAT FEB 6 2016/

AVIATION...
A WEAK DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE SOUTH OF THE STATE TODAY SPREADING
HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE OVER THE TERMINALS. WIDESPREAD VFR CONDITIONS
ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE WITH LIGHT WINDS.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 224 AM CST SAT FEB 6 2016/

SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT
MODELS REMAIN CONSISTENT IN ADVERTISING A SPLIT FLOW PATTERN
ACROSS THE COUNTRY WITH A STORM SYSTEM CURRENTLY GETTING CUT OFF
ALONG THE RED RIVER. SYSTEM CLEARLY VISIBLE ON MOISTURE CHANNEL
IMAGERY AT THIS TIME WITH ASSOCIATED UPPER TROUGH EXTENDING
NORTHEAST TO THE GREAT LAKES STATES.

REGIONAL RADARS CONTINUE TO SHOW SOME GENERALLY LIGHT RETURNS OVER
EASTERN OKLAHOMA  BUT SURFACE OBSERVATIONS SHOW LITTLE IF ANY IS
REACHING THE GROUND WITH TEMPERATURE DEW POINT SPREADS ANYWHERE
FROM 6 TO 12 DEGREES.

ALL HIGH RESOLUTION AND EVEN THE SYNOPTIC SCALE MODELS TAKE THIS CUT
OFF LOW TO THE SOUTH OF THE US AND AS SUCH THE DRY FORECAST WILL
CONTINUE. AFTERNOON HUMIDITY IS EXPECTED TO DROP INTO THE 30S AND
WITH THE ENTIRE STATE NOW LISTED IN MODERATE FIRE DANGER CATEGORY...
A FIRE DANGER STATEMENT WILL BE ISSUED.

UPPER TROUGH AXIS WILL CLEAR THE AREA TONIGHT WITH WEAK UPPER RIDGE
BUILDING IN. THIS FEATURE WILL BE SHUNTED QUICKLY OFF TO THE EAST
ON SUNDAY AS ATTENTION TURNS TO AN APPROACHING ARCTIC FRONT. AFTER
A SLIGHTLY WARMER DAY AND BREEZIER DAY SUNDAY...THE FRONT WILL
MOVE THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING WITH CONSIDERABLY COLDER AIR SPILLING
IN FOR THE EXTENDED PERIOD. IT LOOKS LIKE THE FRONT WILL MOVE
THROUGH DRY WITH EVEN FLURRIES HARD TO COME BY ALTHOUGH A FEW CAN
NOT RULED OUT.

LONG TERM PERIOD...MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY
OVERALL...THE LONG TERM PERIOD WILL FEATURE RATHER BENIGN
WEATHER. MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT SHOWING A LARGE TROUGH
CARVING OUT A HOME ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE LOWER 48.
NORTHERLY FLOW FROM THE SURFACE THROUGH THE UPPER LEVELS WILL
USHER IN A FAIRLY COLD AIR MASS TO START THE PERIOD OFF...AND A
DISTURBANCE PASSING BY EARLY MONDAY MAY BE ENOUGH TO SQUEEZE OUT
SOME FLURRIES ACROSS FAR NORTHERN ARKANSAS DURING THE MORNING
HOURS. OTHERWISE THE LONG TERM LOOKS TO BE DRY.

BY THURSDAY THE UPPER FLOW WILL FLATTEN OUT SOMEWHAT...ALLOWING AN
UPPER RIDGE TO START TO BUILD IN FROM THE WEST AND FOR REGIONAL
TEMPERATURES TO MODERATE SOME. THIS WILL BE AIDED BY A WEAK SYSTEM
APPROACHING FROM THE WEST AND TURNING WINDS BACK TO A MORE SOUTHERLY
DIRECTION FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...WITH HIGHS EXPECTED TO CLIMB
BACK ABOVE 60 DEGREES FOR PARTS OF SOUTHERN AND WESTERN ARKANSAS
THOSE DAYS. THE WARM UP DOES NOT LOOK TO LAST LONG THOUGH AS THE
THU/FRI SYSTEM WILL FINALLY PUSH SOUTH OF THE AREA LATE
FRIDAY...ALLOWING A REINFORCING SHOT OF COLD AIR TO ARRIVE JUST
BEYOND THE PERIOD.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BATESVILLE AR     56  35  58  33 /   0   0   0  10
CAMDEN AR         55  32  59  35 /  10   0   0   0
HARRISON AR       55  32  55  29 /   0   0   0   0
HOT SPRINGS AR    56  33  58  34 /  10   0   0   0
LITTLE ROCK   AR  56  33  59  34 /  10   0   0   0
MONTICELLO AR     55  33  59  36 /  10   0   0   0
MOUNT IDA AR      56  32  58  32 /  10   0   0   0
MOUNTAIN HOME AR  56  33  56  31 /   0   0   0  10
NEWPORT AR        55  32  57  34 /   0   0   0  10
PINE BLUFF AR     55  33  58  35 /  10   0   0   0
RUSSELLVILLE AR   56  31  59  32 /  10   0   0   0
SEARCY AR         55  31  58  32 /   0   0   0  10
STUTTGART AR      55  32  58  35 /  10   0   0   0
&&

.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&

$$

51



000
FXUS64 KLZK 061740
AFDLZK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
1140 AM CST SAT FEB 6 2016

.AVIATION...
HIGH PRESSURE IS OVER ARKANSAS WITH AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IN
EAST TEXAS. A FEW HIGH CLOUDS WILL EXIT NORTHEAST AND SOUTHERN
ARKANSAS THIS AFTERNOON. LIGHT WINDS AND CLEAR SKIES ARE EXPECTED
TONIGHT. VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 606 AM CST SAT FEB 6 2016/

AVIATION...
A WEAK DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE SOUTH OF THE STATE TODAY SPREADING
HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE OVER THE TERMINALS. WIDESPREAD VFR CONDITIONS
ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE WITH LIGHT WINDS.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 224 AM CST SAT FEB 6 2016/

SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT
MODELS REMAIN CONSISTENT IN ADVERTISING A SPLIT FLOW PATTERN
ACROSS THE COUNTRY WITH A STORM SYSTEM CURRENTLY GETTING CUT OFF
ALONG THE RED RIVER. SYSTEM CLEARLY VISIBLE ON MOISTURE CHANNEL
IMAGERY AT THIS TIME WITH ASSOCIATED UPPER TROUGH EXTENDING
NORTHEAST TO THE GREAT LAKES STATES.

REGIONAL RADARS CONTINUE TO SHOW SOME GENERALLY LIGHT RETURNS OVER
EASTERN OKLAHOMA  BUT SURFACE OBSERVATIONS SHOW LITTLE IF ANY IS
REACHING THE GROUND WITH TEMPERATURE DEW POINT SPREADS ANYWHERE
FROM 6 TO 12 DEGREES.

ALL HIGH RESOLUTION AND EVEN THE SYNOPTIC SCALE MODELS TAKE THIS CUT
OFF LOW TO THE SOUTH OF THE US AND AS SUCH THE DRY FORECAST WILL
CONTINUE. AFTERNOON HUMIDITY IS EXPECTED TO DROP INTO THE 30S AND
WITH THE ENTIRE STATE NOW LISTED IN MODERATE FIRE DANGER CATEGORY...
A FIRE DANGER STATEMENT WILL BE ISSUED.

UPPER TROUGH AXIS WILL CLEAR THE AREA TONIGHT WITH WEAK UPPER RIDGE
BUILDING IN. THIS FEATURE WILL BE SHUNTED QUICKLY OFF TO THE EAST
ON SUNDAY AS ATTENTION TURNS TO AN APPROACHING ARCTIC FRONT. AFTER
A SLIGHTLY WARMER DAY AND BREEZIER DAY SUNDAY...THE FRONT WILL
MOVE THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING WITH CONSIDERABLY COLDER AIR SPILLING
IN FOR THE EXTENDED PERIOD. IT LOOKS LIKE THE FRONT WILL MOVE
THROUGH DRY WITH EVEN FLURRIES HARD TO COME BY ALTHOUGH A FEW CAN
NOT RULED OUT.

LONG TERM PERIOD...MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY
OVERALL...THE LONG TERM PERIOD WILL FEATURE RATHER BENIGN
WEATHER. MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT SHOWING A LARGE TROUGH
CARVING OUT A HOME ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE LOWER 48.
NORTHERLY FLOW FROM THE SURFACE THROUGH THE UPPER LEVELS WILL
USHER IN A FAIRLY COLD AIR MASS TO START THE PERIOD OFF...AND A
DISTURBANCE PASSING BY EARLY MONDAY MAY BE ENOUGH TO SQUEEZE OUT
SOME FLURRIES ACROSS FAR NORTHERN ARKANSAS DURING THE MORNING
HOURS. OTHERWISE THE LONG TERM LOOKS TO BE DRY.

BY THURSDAY THE UPPER FLOW WILL FLATTEN OUT SOMEWHAT...ALLOWING AN
UPPER RIDGE TO START TO BUILD IN FROM THE WEST AND FOR REGIONAL
TEMPERATURES TO MODERATE SOME. THIS WILL BE AIDED BY A WEAK SYSTEM
APPROACHING FROM THE WEST AND TURNING WINDS BACK TO A MORE SOUTHERLY
DIRECTION FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...WITH HIGHS EXPECTED TO CLIMB
BACK ABOVE 60 DEGREES FOR PARTS OF SOUTHERN AND WESTERN ARKANSAS
THOSE DAYS. THE WARM UP DOES NOT LOOK TO LAST LONG THOUGH AS THE
THU/FRI SYSTEM WILL FINALLY PUSH SOUTH OF THE AREA LATE
FRIDAY...ALLOWING A REINFORCING SHOT OF COLD AIR TO ARRIVE JUST
BEYOND THE PERIOD.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BATESVILLE AR     55  35  58  33 /   0   0   0  10
CAMDEN AR         56  32  59  35 /  10   0   0   0
HARRISON AR       53  32  55  29 /   0   0   0   0
HOT SPRINGS AR    55  33  58  34 /  10   0   0   0
LITTLE ROCK   AR  55  33  59  34 /  10   0   0   0
MONTICELLO AR     55  33  59  36 /  10   0   0   0
MOUNT IDA AR      55  32  58  32 /  10   0   0   0
MOUNTAIN HOME AR  55  33  56  31 /   0   0   0  10
NEWPORT AR        54  32  57  34 /   0   0   0  10
PINE BLUFF AR     53  33  58  35 /  10   0   0   0
RUSSELLVILLE AR   55  31  59  32 /  10   0   0   0
SEARCY AR         54  31  58  32 /   0   0   0  10
STUTTGART AR      53  32  58  35 /  10   0   0   0
&&

.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&

$$

51
AVIATION...99




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