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000
FXUS64 KLZK 020025 AAA
AFDLZK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
725 PM CDT WED JUL 1 2015

.DISCUSSION...

UPDATED FOR THE 00Z AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

&&

.AVIATION...

MAIN CONCERN FOR THIS TAF PERIOD IS THE CHANCES FOR CONVECTION AT
NORTHERN SITES. REGIONAL RADAR OBSERVATIONS SHOW WIDESPREAD
CONVECTION BREAKING OUT AROUND AND TO THE EAST OF KANSAS CITY THIS
EVENING. THIS WILL MOVE SOUTH WITH TIME AND IS EXPECTED TO
ARRIVE...ALBEIT IT IN A WEAKENED STATE MOST LIKELY...AT KHRO AND
KBPK AROUND THE 06Z-08Z TIME FRAME. FOR NOW...GIVEN THAT HIGH
RESOLUTION MODELS SHOW A WEAKENING TREND AS IT APPROACHES THE
ARKANSAS BORDER...JUST HAVE VCTS GOING AT KHRO AND KBPK BETWEEN
07Z-12Z TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS. A LULL IN CONVECTION IS EXPECTED
AFTER DAYBREAK THU...BUT MORE CONVECTION IS EXPECTED THU AFTERNOON
AND EVENING UP NORTH. ELSEWHERE...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITH
ONLY SOME FEW-SCT AFTERNOON CU TOMORROW.

LASTLY...BRISK SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED ON THURSDAY
WITH GUSTS REACHING INTO THE 25KT RANGE MOST EVERYWHERE.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 232 PM CDT WED JUL 1 2015/

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT
CURRENT WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS THE UPPER PATTERN HAS NOT CHANGED
APPRECIABLY IN THE PAST DAY OR TWO AND CONTINUES TO BE DOMINATED BY
UPPER RIDGING OVER THE FOUR CORNERS REGIONS. SHORT WAVE MOVING DOWN
IN THIS FLOW THIS MORNING DID BRUSH THE NORTHEAST PART OF THE STATE
BUT OVERALL IMPACTS WERE MINIMAL. LIGHT SHOWERS REMAIN OVER THIS
PART OF THE STATE ALONG WITH THE BEST CHANCE OF CONVECTION LATER ON
THANKS TO ANY LURKING OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES. A BLEND OF FORECAST
SOLUTIONS WILL BE USED THIS AFTERNOON.

FLOW ALOFT WILL REMAIN PREDOMINATELY FROM THE NORTHWEST THROUGH THE
PERIOD WHICH WILL BE SENDING SEVERAL UPPER WAVES OVER THE STATE IN
THE COMING DAYS...KEEPING PRECIPITATION CHANCES IN THE FORECAST
THROUGH THE ENTIRE SHORT TERM PERIOD.

ANOTHER UPPER WAVE WILL DROP SOUTHEAST OVER THE REGION THIS EVENING
AND OVERNIGHT TONIGHT...WITH ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
POSSIBLE. BEST CHANCES ONCE AGAIN BE ACROSS THE NORTHERN AND
NORTHEASTERN COUNTIES WITH CONSIDERABLY LESSER CHANCES TO THE SOUTH
AND WEST. STRONG WAVE ARRIVES FOR LATE THURSDAY AND FRIDAY WITH
NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED WITH CONSIDERABLY MORE
COVERAGE....AIDED BY A FRONTAL BOUNDARY DROPPING INTO THE NORTHERN
PART OF THE STATE.

ADDITIONAL HIGH CHANCE POPS NEEDED FOR SATURDAY WITH AFOREMENTIONED
BOUNDARY LURKING ABOUT AND YET ANOTHER POTENT WAVE DROPPING DOWN.
SOME LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL MAY BE SEEN IN THE COMING DAYS AS
SOME AREAS SEE MULTIPLE ROUNDS OF SHRA/TSRA. MAY NEED TO CONSIDER A
FLASH FLOOD WATCH IN THE COMING DAYS AS LOCATION AND TIMING DETAILS
BECOME MORE CLEAR OVER TIME LATER THIS WEEK.

&&

LONG TERM...SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...

THE UNSETTLED WEATHER SEEN ON INDEPENDENCE DAY WILL CARRY OVER INTO
THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEKEND AS ARKANSAS REMAINS UNDER NW FLOW.
PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL REMAIN IN THE FORECAST ON SUNDAY AS A
STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY REMAINS TO THE NORTH OF ARKANSAS.

BY MONDAY...AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BEGIN TO BUILD INTO THE
AREA...HOWEVER UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL REMAIN IN THE FORECAST. MODELS
GENERALLY IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT A FRONTAL BOUNDARY IN MISSOURI WILL
BECOME PARALLEL TO THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW AND STALL. THIS WILL
KEEP THE BEST CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION ACROSS PORTIONS OF NORTHERN
ARKANSAS THROUGH THE EXTENDED.

TEMPERATURES WILL GENERALLY BE AT OR ABOVE NORMAL ACROSS CENTRAL AND
SOUTHERN ARKANSAS...WITH BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE NORTH
WHERE PRECIPITATION CHANCES AND CLOUDS WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES
SOMEWHAT COOLER.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BATESVILLE AR     89  75  88  71 /  60  50  50  60
CAMDEN AR         92  75  93  75 /  20  20  20  30
HARRISON AR       89  73  86  68 /  50  40  60  60
HOT SPRINGS AR    92  76  90  74 /  20  20  20  40
LITTLE ROCK   AR  93  76  91  74 /  20  30  30  40
MONTICELLO AR     92  75  92  75 /  20  20  20  30
MOUNT IDA AR      90  75  89  73 /  20  20  30  40
MOUNTAIN HOME AR  88  73  87  69 /  60  50  60  50
NEWPORT AR        89  75  88  71 /  60  50  50  60
PINE BLUFF AR     91  75  92  74 /  20  20  20  40
RUSSELLVILLE AR   93  75  90  72 /  30  30  40  50
SEARCY AR         92  75  90  72 /  30  40  40  60
STUTTGART AR      91  75  90  73 /  20  30  30  40
&&

.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&

$$


AVIATION...64





000
FXUS64 KLZK 020025 AAA
AFDLZK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
725 PM CDT WED JUL 1 2015

.DISCUSSION...

UPDATED FOR THE 00Z AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

&&

.AVIATION...

MAIN CONCERN FOR THIS TAF PERIOD IS THE CHANCES FOR CONVECTION AT
NORTHERN SITES. REGIONAL RADAR OBSERVATIONS SHOW WIDESPREAD
CONVECTION BREAKING OUT AROUND AND TO THE EAST OF KANSAS CITY THIS
EVENING. THIS WILL MOVE SOUTH WITH TIME AND IS EXPECTED TO
ARRIVE...ALBEIT IT IN A WEAKENED STATE MOST LIKELY...AT KHRO AND
KBPK AROUND THE 06Z-08Z TIME FRAME. FOR NOW...GIVEN THAT HIGH
RESOLUTION MODELS SHOW A WEAKENING TREND AS IT APPROACHES THE
ARKANSAS BORDER...JUST HAVE VCTS GOING AT KHRO AND KBPK BETWEEN
07Z-12Z TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS. A LULL IN CONVECTION IS EXPECTED
AFTER DAYBREAK THU...BUT MORE CONVECTION IS EXPECTED THU AFTERNOON
AND EVENING UP NORTH. ELSEWHERE...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITH
ONLY SOME FEW-SCT AFTERNOON CU TOMORROW.

LASTLY...BRISK SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED ON THURSDAY
WITH GUSTS REACHING INTO THE 25KT RANGE MOST EVERYWHERE.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 232 PM CDT WED JUL 1 2015/

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT
CURRENT WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS THE UPPER PATTERN HAS NOT CHANGED
APPRECIABLY IN THE PAST DAY OR TWO AND CONTINUES TO BE DOMINATED BY
UPPER RIDGING OVER THE FOUR CORNERS REGIONS. SHORT WAVE MOVING DOWN
IN THIS FLOW THIS MORNING DID BRUSH THE NORTHEAST PART OF THE STATE
BUT OVERALL IMPACTS WERE MINIMAL. LIGHT SHOWERS REMAIN OVER THIS
PART OF THE STATE ALONG WITH THE BEST CHANCE OF CONVECTION LATER ON
THANKS TO ANY LURKING OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES. A BLEND OF FORECAST
SOLUTIONS WILL BE USED THIS AFTERNOON.

FLOW ALOFT WILL REMAIN PREDOMINATELY FROM THE NORTHWEST THROUGH THE
PERIOD WHICH WILL BE SENDING SEVERAL UPPER WAVES OVER THE STATE IN
THE COMING DAYS...KEEPING PRECIPITATION CHANCES IN THE FORECAST
THROUGH THE ENTIRE SHORT TERM PERIOD.

ANOTHER UPPER WAVE WILL DROP SOUTHEAST OVER THE REGION THIS EVENING
AND OVERNIGHT TONIGHT...WITH ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
POSSIBLE. BEST CHANCES ONCE AGAIN BE ACROSS THE NORTHERN AND
NORTHEASTERN COUNTIES WITH CONSIDERABLY LESSER CHANCES TO THE SOUTH
AND WEST. STRONG WAVE ARRIVES FOR LATE THURSDAY AND FRIDAY WITH
NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED WITH CONSIDERABLY MORE
COVERAGE....AIDED BY A FRONTAL BOUNDARY DROPPING INTO THE NORTHERN
PART OF THE STATE.

ADDITIONAL HIGH CHANCE POPS NEEDED FOR SATURDAY WITH AFOREMENTIONED
BOUNDARY LURKING ABOUT AND YET ANOTHER POTENT WAVE DROPPING DOWN.
SOME LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL MAY BE SEEN IN THE COMING DAYS AS
SOME AREAS SEE MULTIPLE ROUNDS OF SHRA/TSRA. MAY NEED TO CONSIDER A
FLASH FLOOD WATCH IN THE COMING DAYS AS LOCATION AND TIMING DETAILS
BECOME MORE CLEAR OVER TIME LATER THIS WEEK.

&&

LONG TERM...SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...

THE UNSETTLED WEATHER SEEN ON INDEPENDENCE DAY WILL CARRY OVER INTO
THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEKEND AS ARKANSAS REMAINS UNDER NW FLOW.
PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL REMAIN IN THE FORECAST ON SUNDAY AS A
STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY REMAINS TO THE NORTH OF ARKANSAS.

BY MONDAY...AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BEGIN TO BUILD INTO THE
AREA...HOWEVER UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL REMAIN IN THE FORECAST. MODELS
GENERALLY IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT A FRONTAL BOUNDARY IN MISSOURI WILL
BECOME PARALLEL TO THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW AND STALL. THIS WILL
KEEP THE BEST CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION ACROSS PORTIONS OF NORTHERN
ARKANSAS THROUGH THE EXTENDED.

TEMPERATURES WILL GENERALLY BE AT OR ABOVE NORMAL ACROSS CENTRAL AND
SOUTHERN ARKANSAS...WITH BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE NORTH
WHERE PRECIPITATION CHANCES AND CLOUDS WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES
SOMEWHAT COOLER.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BATESVILLE AR     89  75  88  71 /  60  50  50  60
CAMDEN AR         92  75  93  75 /  20  20  20  30
HARRISON AR       89  73  86  68 /  50  40  60  60
HOT SPRINGS AR    92  76  90  74 /  20  20  20  40
LITTLE ROCK   AR  93  76  91  74 /  20  30  30  40
MONTICELLO AR     92  75  92  75 /  20  20  20  30
MOUNT IDA AR      90  75  89  73 /  20  20  30  40
MOUNTAIN HOME AR  88  73  87  69 /  60  50  60  50
NEWPORT AR        89  75  88  71 /  60  50  50  60
PINE BLUFF AR     91  75  92  74 /  20  20  20  40
RUSSELLVILLE AR   93  75  90  72 /  30  30  40  50
SEARCY AR         92  75  90  72 /  30  40  40  60
STUTTGART AR      91  75  90  73 /  20  30  30  40
&&

.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&

$$


AVIATION...64






000
FXUS64 KLZK 020025 AAA
AFDLZK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
725 PM CDT WED JUL 1 2015

.DISCUSSION...

UPDATED FOR THE 00Z AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

&&

.AVIATION...

MAIN CONCERN FOR THIS TAF PERIOD IS THE CHANCES FOR CONVECTION AT
NORTHERN SITES. REGIONAL RADAR OBSERVATIONS SHOW WIDESPREAD
CONVECTION BREAKING OUT AROUND AND TO THE EAST OF KANSAS CITY THIS
EVENING. THIS WILL MOVE SOUTH WITH TIME AND IS EXPECTED TO
ARRIVE...ALBEIT IT IN A WEAKENED STATE MOST LIKELY...AT KHRO AND
KBPK AROUND THE 06Z-08Z TIME FRAME. FOR NOW...GIVEN THAT HIGH
RESOLUTION MODELS SHOW A WEAKENING TREND AS IT APPROACHES THE
ARKANSAS BORDER...JUST HAVE VCTS GOING AT KHRO AND KBPK BETWEEN
07Z-12Z TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS. A LULL IN CONVECTION IS EXPECTED
AFTER DAYBREAK THU...BUT MORE CONVECTION IS EXPECTED THU AFTERNOON
AND EVENING UP NORTH. ELSEWHERE...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITH
ONLY SOME FEW-SCT AFTERNOON CU TOMORROW.

LASTLY...BRISK SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED ON THURSDAY
WITH GUSTS REACHING INTO THE 25KT RANGE MOST EVERYWHERE.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 232 PM CDT WED JUL 1 2015/

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT
CURRENT WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS THE UPPER PATTERN HAS NOT CHANGED
APPRECIABLY IN THE PAST DAY OR TWO AND CONTINUES TO BE DOMINATED BY
UPPER RIDGING OVER THE FOUR CORNERS REGIONS. SHORT WAVE MOVING DOWN
IN THIS FLOW THIS MORNING DID BRUSH THE NORTHEAST PART OF THE STATE
BUT OVERALL IMPACTS WERE MINIMAL. LIGHT SHOWERS REMAIN OVER THIS
PART OF THE STATE ALONG WITH THE BEST CHANCE OF CONVECTION LATER ON
THANKS TO ANY LURKING OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES. A BLEND OF FORECAST
SOLUTIONS WILL BE USED THIS AFTERNOON.

FLOW ALOFT WILL REMAIN PREDOMINATELY FROM THE NORTHWEST THROUGH THE
PERIOD WHICH WILL BE SENDING SEVERAL UPPER WAVES OVER THE STATE IN
THE COMING DAYS...KEEPING PRECIPITATION CHANCES IN THE FORECAST
THROUGH THE ENTIRE SHORT TERM PERIOD.

ANOTHER UPPER WAVE WILL DROP SOUTHEAST OVER THE REGION THIS EVENING
AND OVERNIGHT TONIGHT...WITH ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
POSSIBLE. BEST CHANCES ONCE AGAIN BE ACROSS THE NORTHERN AND
NORTHEASTERN COUNTIES WITH CONSIDERABLY LESSER CHANCES TO THE SOUTH
AND WEST. STRONG WAVE ARRIVES FOR LATE THURSDAY AND FRIDAY WITH
NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED WITH CONSIDERABLY MORE
COVERAGE....AIDED BY A FRONTAL BOUNDARY DROPPING INTO THE NORTHERN
PART OF THE STATE.

ADDITIONAL HIGH CHANCE POPS NEEDED FOR SATURDAY WITH AFOREMENTIONED
BOUNDARY LURKING ABOUT AND YET ANOTHER POTENT WAVE DROPPING DOWN.
SOME LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL MAY BE SEEN IN THE COMING DAYS AS
SOME AREAS SEE MULTIPLE ROUNDS OF SHRA/TSRA. MAY NEED TO CONSIDER A
FLASH FLOOD WATCH IN THE COMING DAYS AS LOCATION AND TIMING DETAILS
BECOME MORE CLEAR OVER TIME LATER THIS WEEK.

&&

LONG TERM...SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...

THE UNSETTLED WEATHER SEEN ON INDEPENDENCE DAY WILL CARRY OVER INTO
THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEKEND AS ARKANSAS REMAINS UNDER NW FLOW.
PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL REMAIN IN THE FORECAST ON SUNDAY AS A
STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY REMAINS TO THE NORTH OF ARKANSAS.

BY MONDAY...AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BEGIN TO BUILD INTO THE
AREA...HOWEVER UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL REMAIN IN THE FORECAST. MODELS
GENERALLY IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT A FRONTAL BOUNDARY IN MISSOURI WILL
BECOME PARALLEL TO THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW AND STALL. THIS WILL
KEEP THE BEST CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION ACROSS PORTIONS OF NORTHERN
ARKANSAS THROUGH THE EXTENDED.

TEMPERATURES WILL GENERALLY BE AT OR ABOVE NORMAL ACROSS CENTRAL AND
SOUTHERN ARKANSAS...WITH BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE NORTH
WHERE PRECIPITATION CHANCES AND CLOUDS WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES
SOMEWHAT COOLER.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BATESVILLE AR     89  75  88  71 /  60  50  50  60
CAMDEN AR         92  75  93  75 /  20  20  20  30
HARRISON AR       89  73  86  68 /  50  40  60  60
HOT SPRINGS AR    92  76  90  74 /  20  20  20  40
LITTLE ROCK   AR  93  76  91  74 /  20  30  30  40
MONTICELLO AR     92  75  92  75 /  20  20  20  30
MOUNT IDA AR      90  75  89  73 /  20  20  30  40
MOUNTAIN HOME AR  88  73  87  69 /  60  50  60  50
NEWPORT AR        89  75  88  71 /  60  50  50  60
PINE BLUFF AR     91  75  92  74 /  20  20  20  40
RUSSELLVILLE AR   93  75  90  72 /  30  30  40  50
SEARCY AR         92  75  90  72 /  30  40  40  60
STUTTGART AR      91  75  90  73 /  20  30  30  40
&&

.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&

$$


AVIATION...64





000
FXUS64 KLZK 020025 AAA
AFDLZK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
725 PM CDT WED JUL 1 2015

.DISCUSSION...

UPDATED FOR THE 00Z AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

&&

.AVIATION...

MAIN CONCERN FOR THIS TAF PERIOD IS THE CHANCES FOR CONVECTION AT
NORTHERN SITES. REGIONAL RADAR OBSERVATIONS SHOW WIDESPREAD
CONVECTION BREAKING OUT AROUND AND TO THE EAST OF KANSAS CITY THIS
EVENING. THIS WILL MOVE SOUTH WITH TIME AND IS EXPECTED TO
ARRIVE...ALBEIT IT IN A WEAKENED STATE MOST LIKELY...AT KHRO AND
KBPK AROUND THE 06Z-08Z TIME FRAME. FOR NOW...GIVEN THAT HIGH
RESOLUTION MODELS SHOW A WEAKENING TREND AS IT APPROACHES THE
ARKANSAS BORDER...JUST HAVE VCTS GOING AT KHRO AND KBPK BETWEEN
07Z-12Z TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS. A LULL IN CONVECTION IS EXPECTED
AFTER DAYBREAK THU...BUT MORE CONVECTION IS EXPECTED THU AFTERNOON
AND EVENING UP NORTH. ELSEWHERE...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITH
ONLY SOME FEW-SCT AFTERNOON CU TOMORROW.

LASTLY...BRISK SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED ON THURSDAY
WITH GUSTS REACHING INTO THE 25KT RANGE MOST EVERYWHERE.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 232 PM CDT WED JUL 1 2015/

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT
CURRENT WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS THE UPPER PATTERN HAS NOT CHANGED
APPRECIABLY IN THE PAST DAY OR TWO AND CONTINUES TO BE DOMINATED BY
UPPER RIDGING OVER THE FOUR CORNERS REGIONS. SHORT WAVE MOVING DOWN
IN THIS FLOW THIS MORNING DID BRUSH THE NORTHEAST PART OF THE STATE
BUT OVERALL IMPACTS WERE MINIMAL. LIGHT SHOWERS REMAIN OVER THIS
PART OF THE STATE ALONG WITH THE BEST CHANCE OF CONVECTION LATER ON
THANKS TO ANY LURKING OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES. A BLEND OF FORECAST
SOLUTIONS WILL BE USED THIS AFTERNOON.

FLOW ALOFT WILL REMAIN PREDOMINATELY FROM THE NORTHWEST THROUGH THE
PERIOD WHICH WILL BE SENDING SEVERAL UPPER WAVES OVER THE STATE IN
THE COMING DAYS...KEEPING PRECIPITATION CHANCES IN THE FORECAST
THROUGH THE ENTIRE SHORT TERM PERIOD.

ANOTHER UPPER WAVE WILL DROP SOUTHEAST OVER THE REGION THIS EVENING
AND OVERNIGHT TONIGHT...WITH ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
POSSIBLE. BEST CHANCES ONCE AGAIN BE ACROSS THE NORTHERN AND
NORTHEASTERN COUNTIES WITH CONSIDERABLY LESSER CHANCES TO THE SOUTH
AND WEST. STRONG WAVE ARRIVES FOR LATE THURSDAY AND FRIDAY WITH
NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED WITH CONSIDERABLY MORE
COVERAGE....AIDED BY A FRONTAL BOUNDARY DROPPING INTO THE NORTHERN
PART OF THE STATE.

ADDITIONAL HIGH CHANCE POPS NEEDED FOR SATURDAY WITH AFOREMENTIONED
BOUNDARY LURKING ABOUT AND YET ANOTHER POTENT WAVE DROPPING DOWN.
SOME LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL MAY BE SEEN IN THE COMING DAYS AS
SOME AREAS SEE MULTIPLE ROUNDS OF SHRA/TSRA. MAY NEED TO CONSIDER A
FLASH FLOOD WATCH IN THE COMING DAYS AS LOCATION AND TIMING DETAILS
BECOME MORE CLEAR OVER TIME LATER THIS WEEK.

&&

LONG TERM...SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...

THE UNSETTLED WEATHER SEEN ON INDEPENDENCE DAY WILL CARRY OVER INTO
THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEKEND AS ARKANSAS REMAINS UNDER NW FLOW.
PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL REMAIN IN THE FORECAST ON SUNDAY AS A
STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY REMAINS TO THE NORTH OF ARKANSAS.

BY MONDAY...AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BEGIN TO BUILD INTO THE
AREA...HOWEVER UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL REMAIN IN THE FORECAST. MODELS
GENERALLY IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT A FRONTAL BOUNDARY IN MISSOURI WILL
BECOME PARALLEL TO THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW AND STALL. THIS WILL
KEEP THE BEST CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION ACROSS PORTIONS OF NORTHERN
ARKANSAS THROUGH THE EXTENDED.

TEMPERATURES WILL GENERALLY BE AT OR ABOVE NORMAL ACROSS CENTRAL AND
SOUTHERN ARKANSAS...WITH BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE NORTH
WHERE PRECIPITATION CHANCES AND CLOUDS WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES
SOMEWHAT COOLER.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BATESVILLE AR     89  75  88  71 /  60  50  50  60
CAMDEN AR         92  75  93  75 /  20  20  20  30
HARRISON AR       89  73  86  68 /  50  40  60  60
HOT SPRINGS AR    92  76  90  74 /  20  20  20  40
LITTLE ROCK   AR  93  76  91  74 /  20  30  30  40
MONTICELLO AR     92  75  92  75 /  20  20  20  30
MOUNT IDA AR      90  75  89  73 /  20  20  30  40
MOUNTAIN HOME AR  88  73  87  69 /  60  50  60  50
NEWPORT AR        89  75  88  71 /  60  50  50  60
PINE BLUFF AR     91  75  92  74 /  20  20  20  40
RUSSELLVILLE AR   93  75  90  72 /  30  30  40  50
SEARCY AR         92  75  90  72 /  30  40  40  60
STUTTGART AR      91  75  90  73 /  20  30  30  40
&&

.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&

$$


AVIATION...64






000
FXUS64 KLZK 011823
AFDLZK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
123 PM CDT WED JUL 1 2015

.AVIATION...

LOW CLOUDS AND MVFR CONDITIONS ARE CURRENTLY ONGOING ACROSS THE
NORTHERN TAF SITES. SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE TO
PUSH SE AND WILL LIKELY IMPACT NORTHERN ARKANSAS LATER THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. NOT EXPECTING THESE CONDITIONS TO REACH
CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN TAF SITES WITH VFR CONDITIONS PERSISTING.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 630 AM CDT WED JUL 01 2015/

AVIATION...

OVERALL VFR FLIGHT CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
MAINLY MID TO HIGH CLOUDS WILL STREAM OVER THE REGION. THIS MORNING
A THUNDERSTORM COMPLEX WILL MOVE INTO NORTHERN TO NE AR...WITH
ISOLATED MVFR CEILINGS WITH STORMS. WINDS WILL BE S TO SW AT 5 TO 10
MPH THIS MORNING BECOMING 7 TO 18 MPH WITH SOME GUSTS TO 20 MPH.
ALSO THIS AFTERNOON TO EARLY EVENING...ISOLATED CONVECTION WILL BE
SEEN OVER MUCH OF AR...WITH ISOLATED MVFR CEILINGS WITH STORMS. USED
VCSH OR VCTS TO START WHILE A TEMPO GROUP AT KBPK THIS MORNING. (59)

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 311 AM CDT WED JUL 1 2015/

SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY TEXT

FLOW ALOFT REMAINS PREDOMINATELY FROM THE NW OVER THE REGION...WHICH
WILL BE SENDING SEVERAL UPPER WAVES SE OVER THE STATE IN THE COMING
DAYS. THIS WILL KEEP CHANCES FOR PRECIP IN THE FORECAST THROUGH THE
ENTIRE SHORT TERM PERIOD FOR AT LEAST SOME PORTION OF THE CWA...

CONVECTION IS ONGOING ACROSS CENTRAL MO EARLY THIS MORNING AS ONE
SUCH UPPER WAVE IS DROPPING SE OVER MO. THIS DISTURBANCE WILL
CONTINUE TO DROP SE...WITH CONVECTION EXPECTED TO CONTINUE AS THE
ACTIVITY DROPS FROM CENTRAL MO INTO SRN AND SERN MO...AND EVENTUALLY
INTO PORTIONS OF NERN AR LATER THIS MORNING. LOOKS LIKE THE MAJORITY
OF THIS CONVECTION WILL REMAIN NE OF THE CWA...BUT DO THINK SOME
SHRA/TSRA WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE FAR NERN AND EVEN SOME
COUNTIES FURTHER WEST ALONG THE MO BORDER. AS A RESULT...THIS IS
WHERE THE HIGHEST POPS REMAIN THIS MORNING. POPS WILL REMAIN UP
THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON ALSO AS ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT FURTHER SW
COULD BE SEEN ALONG ANY OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES THAT COULD INTERACT WITH
THE UNSTABLE CONDITIONS FURTHER SW. BECAUSE OF THE UNSTABLE AIRMASS
EXPECTED...SOME STORMS COULD BECOME SVR...WITH MAINLY A DAMAGING
WIND THREAT. DO THINK SOME LARGE HAIL COULD BE SEEN AS
WELL...ESPECIALLY GIVEN THE AMOUNT OF CAPE IN THE HAIL GROWTH ZONE
IN THE FORECAST SOUNDINGS.

ANOTHER UPPER WAVE WILL DROP SE OVER THE REGION THIS EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT TONIGHT...WITH MORE SHRA/TSRA POSSIBLE. HIGHEST POPS
TONIGHT WILL AGAIN BE ACROSS THE NRN AND NERN COUNTIES. SOME
ISOLATED SHRA/TSRA COULD STILL BE SEEN FURTHER SOUTH AND
WEST...MAINLY AS A RESULT OF AFTERNOON HEATING. CHANCES FOR PRECIP
WILL INCREASE FURTHER SOUTH AND WEST BY LATE THU INTO FRI AS A MORE
POTENT UPPER WAVE MOVES OVER AR...WITH POTENTIAL FOR MORE WIDESPREAD
CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY INCREASING CWA WIDE. WILL KEEP POPS UP INTO THE
WEEKEND AS MORE UPPER WAVES PASS OVER THE STATE. SOME LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL MAY BE SEEN IN THE COMING DAYS...ESPECIALLY LATER IN THE
WEEK AS SOME AREAS SEE MULTIPLE ROUNDS OF SHRA/TSRA. MAY NEED TO
CONSIDER A FLASH FLOOD WATCH IN THE COMING DAYS AS LOCATION AND
TIMING DETAILS BECOME MORE CLEAR OVER TIME LATER THIS WEEK.

LONG TERM...SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY

THE EXTENDED FORECAST WILL BE UNSETTLED WITH CHANCES OF CONVECTION
ALMOST EVERY DAY. AN UPPER NW FLOW AND OVERALL UPPER LOW PRESSURE
TROUGH WILL SET UP ACROSS THE REGION...WITH UPPER SHORT WAVE ENERGY
EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH THE REGION AND PRODUCE CONVECTION. TIMING
OF THE UPPER ENERGY WILL BE TOUGH TO FINE TUNE...BUT FORECAST DOES
HAVE SOME CHANCE OF CONVECTION EACH DAY. ON TUESDAY A FRONTAL
BOUNDARY APPROACHES AR FROM THE NORTH...AND CONVECTION CHANCES WILL
INCREASE OVER NORTHERN AR. AFTERNOON HEATING INSTABILITY WILL ALSO
HELP CONVECTION POTENTIAL IN THE AFTERNOON TO EARLY EVENING. SHORT
WAVE MOVEMENT MAY BE MORE LOCATED OVER NORTHERN PARTS OF AR...AND
THE HIGHEST CHANCES OF CONVECTION WILL BE OVER THAT REGION. NORTHERN
AR COULD ALSO SEE HEAVY RAIN OVER A SEVERAL DAY PERIOD WITH THE
EXPECTED MOVEMENT OF STORM COMPLEXES...AND LOCALIZED FLOODING...
POSSIBLE ELEVATED RIVER AND FLASH FLOODING MAY BE SEEN. TEMPERATURES
WILL BE AROUND NORMAL VALUES...EXCEPT THOSE AREAS THAT RECEIVE MORE
RAIN...WITH TEMPERATURES A BIT LOWER.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BATESVILLE AR     89  75  89  71 /  60  50  50  50
CAMDEN AR         92  75  93  75 /  20  20  20  40
HARRISON AR       89  73  87  68 /  50  40  50  50
HOT SPRINGS AR    92  75  92  74 /  20  20  20  40
LITTLE ROCK   AR  93  76  93  75 /  20  20  30  50
MONTICELLO AR     92  76  93  75 /  20  20  20  40
MOUNT IDA AR      90  74  90  74 /  20  20  20  40
MOUNTAIN HOME AR  88  73  89  69 /  60  50  50  50
NEWPORT AR        89  74  88  72 /  60  50  50  50
PINE BLUFF AR     91  75  92  74 /  20  20  20  40
RUSSELLVILLE AR   93  74  92  72 /  30  20  40  50
SEARCY AR         92  75  91  72 /  30  30  40  50
STUTTGART AR      91  75  91  73 /  20  20  30  50
&&

.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&

$$


AVIATION...65






000
FXUS64 KLZK 011823
AFDLZK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
123 PM CDT WED JUL 1 2015

.AVIATION...

LOW CLOUDS AND MVFR CONDITIONS ARE CURRENTLY ONGOING ACROSS THE
NORTHERN TAF SITES. SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE TO
PUSH SE AND WILL LIKELY IMPACT NORTHERN ARKANSAS LATER THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. NOT EXPECTING THESE CONDITIONS TO REACH
CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN TAF SITES WITH VFR CONDITIONS PERSISTING.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 630 AM CDT WED JUL 01 2015/

AVIATION...

OVERALL VFR FLIGHT CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
MAINLY MID TO HIGH CLOUDS WILL STREAM OVER THE REGION. THIS MORNING
A THUNDERSTORM COMPLEX WILL MOVE INTO NORTHERN TO NE AR...WITH
ISOLATED MVFR CEILINGS WITH STORMS. WINDS WILL BE S TO SW AT 5 TO 10
MPH THIS MORNING BECOMING 7 TO 18 MPH WITH SOME GUSTS TO 20 MPH.
ALSO THIS AFTERNOON TO EARLY EVENING...ISOLATED CONVECTION WILL BE
SEEN OVER MUCH OF AR...WITH ISOLATED MVFR CEILINGS WITH STORMS. USED
VCSH OR VCTS TO START WHILE A TEMPO GROUP AT KBPK THIS MORNING. (59)

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 311 AM CDT WED JUL 1 2015/

SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY TEXT

FLOW ALOFT REMAINS PREDOMINATELY FROM THE NW OVER THE REGION...WHICH
WILL BE SENDING SEVERAL UPPER WAVES SE OVER THE STATE IN THE COMING
DAYS. THIS WILL KEEP CHANCES FOR PRECIP IN THE FORECAST THROUGH THE
ENTIRE SHORT TERM PERIOD FOR AT LEAST SOME PORTION OF THE CWA...

CONVECTION IS ONGOING ACROSS CENTRAL MO EARLY THIS MORNING AS ONE
SUCH UPPER WAVE IS DROPPING SE OVER MO. THIS DISTURBANCE WILL
CONTINUE TO DROP SE...WITH CONVECTION EXPECTED TO CONTINUE AS THE
ACTIVITY DROPS FROM CENTRAL MO INTO SRN AND SERN MO...AND EVENTUALLY
INTO PORTIONS OF NERN AR LATER THIS MORNING. LOOKS LIKE THE MAJORITY
OF THIS CONVECTION WILL REMAIN NE OF THE CWA...BUT DO THINK SOME
SHRA/TSRA WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE FAR NERN AND EVEN SOME
COUNTIES FURTHER WEST ALONG THE MO BORDER. AS A RESULT...THIS IS
WHERE THE HIGHEST POPS REMAIN THIS MORNING. POPS WILL REMAIN UP
THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON ALSO AS ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT FURTHER SW
COULD BE SEEN ALONG ANY OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES THAT COULD INTERACT WITH
THE UNSTABLE CONDITIONS FURTHER SW. BECAUSE OF THE UNSTABLE AIRMASS
EXPECTED...SOME STORMS COULD BECOME SVR...WITH MAINLY A DAMAGING
WIND THREAT. DO THINK SOME LARGE HAIL COULD BE SEEN AS
WELL...ESPECIALLY GIVEN THE AMOUNT OF CAPE IN THE HAIL GROWTH ZONE
IN THE FORECAST SOUNDINGS.

ANOTHER UPPER WAVE WILL DROP SE OVER THE REGION THIS EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT TONIGHT...WITH MORE SHRA/TSRA POSSIBLE. HIGHEST POPS
TONIGHT WILL AGAIN BE ACROSS THE NRN AND NERN COUNTIES. SOME
ISOLATED SHRA/TSRA COULD STILL BE SEEN FURTHER SOUTH AND
WEST...MAINLY AS A RESULT OF AFTERNOON HEATING. CHANCES FOR PRECIP
WILL INCREASE FURTHER SOUTH AND WEST BY LATE THU INTO FRI AS A MORE
POTENT UPPER WAVE MOVES OVER AR...WITH POTENTIAL FOR MORE WIDESPREAD
CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY INCREASING CWA WIDE. WILL KEEP POPS UP INTO THE
WEEKEND AS MORE UPPER WAVES PASS OVER THE STATE. SOME LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL MAY BE SEEN IN THE COMING DAYS...ESPECIALLY LATER IN THE
WEEK AS SOME AREAS SEE MULTIPLE ROUNDS OF SHRA/TSRA. MAY NEED TO
CONSIDER A FLASH FLOOD WATCH IN THE COMING DAYS AS LOCATION AND
TIMING DETAILS BECOME MORE CLEAR OVER TIME LATER THIS WEEK.

LONG TERM...SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY

THE EXTENDED FORECAST WILL BE UNSETTLED WITH CHANCES OF CONVECTION
ALMOST EVERY DAY. AN UPPER NW FLOW AND OVERALL UPPER LOW PRESSURE
TROUGH WILL SET UP ACROSS THE REGION...WITH UPPER SHORT WAVE ENERGY
EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH THE REGION AND PRODUCE CONVECTION. TIMING
OF THE UPPER ENERGY WILL BE TOUGH TO FINE TUNE...BUT FORECAST DOES
HAVE SOME CHANCE OF CONVECTION EACH DAY. ON TUESDAY A FRONTAL
BOUNDARY APPROACHES AR FROM THE NORTH...AND CONVECTION CHANCES WILL
INCREASE OVER NORTHERN AR. AFTERNOON HEATING INSTABILITY WILL ALSO
HELP CONVECTION POTENTIAL IN THE AFTERNOON TO EARLY EVENING. SHORT
WAVE MOVEMENT MAY BE MORE LOCATED OVER NORTHERN PARTS OF AR...AND
THE HIGHEST CHANCES OF CONVECTION WILL BE OVER THAT REGION. NORTHERN
AR COULD ALSO SEE HEAVY RAIN OVER A SEVERAL DAY PERIOD WITH THE
EXPECTED MOVEMENT OF STORM COMPLEXES...AND LOCALIZED FLOODING...
POSSIBLE ELEVATED RIVER AND FLASH FLOODING MAY BE SEEN. TEMPERATURES
WILL BE AROUND NORMAL VALUES...EXCEPT THOSE AREAS THAT RECEIVE MORE
RAIN...WITH TEMPERATURES A BIT LOWER.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BATESVILLE AR     89  75  89  71 /  60  50  50  50
CAMDEN AR         92  75  93  75 /  20  20  20  40
HARRISON AR       89  73  87  68 /  50  40  50  50
HOT SPRINGS AR    92  75  92  74 /  20  20  20  40
LITTLE ROCK   AR  93  76  93  75 /  20  20  30  50
MONTICELLO AR     92  76  93  75 /  20  20  20  40
MOUNT IDA AR      90  74  90  74 /  20  20  20  40
MOUNTAIN HOME AR  88  73  89  69 /  60  50  50  50
NEWPORT AR        89  74  88  72 /  60  50  50  50
PINE BLUFF AR     91  75  92  74 /  20  20  20  40
RUSSELLVILLE AR   93  74  92  72 /  30  20  40  50
SEARCY AR         92  75  91  72 /  30  30  40  50
STUTTGART AR      91  75  91  73 /  20  20  30  50
&&

.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&

$$


AVIATION...65






000
FXUS64 KLZK 011823
AFDLZK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
123 PM CDT WED JUL 1 2015

.AVIATION...

LOW CLOUDS AND MVFR CONDITIONS ARE CURRENTLY ONGOING ACROSS THE
NORTHERN TAF SITES. SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE TO
PUSH SE AND WILL LIKELY IMPACT NORTHERN ARKANSAS LATER THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. NOT EXPECTING THESE CONDITIONS TO REACH
CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN TAF SITES WITH VFR CONDITIONS PERSISTING.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 630 AM CDT WED JUL 01 2015/

AVIATION...

OVERALL VFR FLIGHT CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
MAINLY MID TO HIGH CLOUDS WILL STREAM OVER THE REGION. THIS MORNING
A THUNDERSTORM COMPLEX WILL MOVE INTO NORTHERN TO NE AR...WITH
ISOLATED MVFR CEILINGS WITH STORMS. WINDS WILL BE S TO SW AT 5 TO 10
MPH THIS MORNING BECOMING 7 TO 18 MPH WITH SOME GUSTS TO 20 MPH.
ALSO THIS AFTERNOON TO EARLY EVENING...ISOLATED CONVECTION WILL BE
SEEN OVER MUCH OF AR...WITH ISOLATED MVFR CEILINGS WITH STORMS. USED
VCSH OR VCTS TO START WHILE A TEMPO GROUP AT KBPK THIS MORNING. (59)

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 311 AM CDT WED JUL 1 2015/

SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY TEXT

FLOW ALOFT REMAINS PREDOMINATELY FROM THE NW OVER THE REGION...WHICH
WILL BE SENDING SEVERAL UPPER WAVES SE OVER THE STATE IN THE COMING
DAYS. THIS WILL KEEP CHANCES FOR PRECIP IN THE FORECAST THROUGH THE
ENTIRE SHORT TERM PERIOD FOR AT LEAST SOME PORTION OF THE CWA...

CONVECTION IS ONGOING ACROSS CENTRAL MO EARLY THIS MORNING AS ONE
SUCH UPPER WAVE IS DROPPING SE OVER MO. THIS DISTURBANCE WILL
CONTINUE TO DROP SE...WITH CONVECTION EXPECTED TO CONTINUE AS THE
ACTIVITY DROPS FROM CENTRAL MO INTO SRN AND SERN MO...AND EVENTUALLY
INTO PORTIONS OF NERN AR LATER THIS MORNING. LOOKS LIKE THE MAJORITY
OF THIS CONVECTION WILL REMAIN NE OF THE CWA...BUT DO THINK SOME
SHRA/TSRA WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE FAR NERN AND EVEN SOME
COUNTIES FURTHER WEST ALONG THE MO BORDER. AS A RESULT...THIS IS
WHERE THE HIGHEST POPS REMAIN THIS MORNING. POPS WILL REMAIN UP
THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON ALSO AS ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT FURTHER SW
COULD BE SEEN ALONG ANY OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES THAT COULD INTERACT WITH
THE UNSTABLE CONDITIONS FURTHER SW. BECAUSE OF THE UNSTABLE AIRMASS
EXPECTED...SOME STORMS COULD BECOME SVR...WITH MAINLY A DAMAGING
WIND THREAT. DO THINK SOME LARGE HAIL COULD BE SEEN AS
WELL...ESPECIALLY GIVEN THE AMOUNT OF CAPE IN THE HAIL GROWTH ZONE
IN THE FORECAST SOUNDINGS.

ANOTHER UPPER WAVE WILL DROP SE OVER THE REGION THIS EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT TONIGHT...WITH MORE SHRA/TSRA POSSIBLE. HIGHEST POPS
TONIGHT WILL AGAIN BE ACROSS THE NRN AND NERN COUNTIES. SOME
ISOLATED SHRA/TSRA COULD STILL BE SEEN FURTHER SOUTH AND
WEST...MAINLY AS A RESULT OF AFTERNOON HEATING. CHANCES FOR PRECIP
WILL INCREASE FURTHER SOUTH AND WEST BY LATE THU INTO FRI AS A MORE
POTENT UPPER WAVE MOVES OVER AR...WITH POTENTIAL FOR MORE WIDESPREAD
CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY INCREASING CWA WIDE. WILL KEEP POPS UP INTO THE
WEEKEND AS MORE UPPER WAVES PASS OVER THE STATE. SOME LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL MAY BE SEEN IN THE COMING DAYS...ESPECIALLY LATER IN THE
WEEK AS SOME AREAS SEE MULTIPLE ROUNDS OF SHRA/TSRA. MAY NEED TO
CONSIDER A FLASH FLOOD WATCH IN THE COMING DAYS AS LOCATION AND
TIMING DETAILS BECOME MORE CLEAR OVER TIME LATER THIS WEEK.

LONG TERM...SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY

THE EXTENDED FORECAST WILL BE UNSETTLED WITH CHANCES OF CONVECTION
ALMOST EVERY DAY. AN UPPER NW FLOW AND OVERALL UPPER LOW PRESSURE
TROUGH WILL SET UP ACROSS THE REGION...WITH UPPER SHORT WAVE ENERGY
EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH THE REGION AND PRODUCE CONVECTION. TIMING
OF THE UPPER ENERGY WILL BE TOUGH TO FINE TUNE...BUT FORECAST DOES
HAVE SOME CHANCE OF CONVECTION EACH DAY. ON TUESDAY A FRONTAL
BOUNDARY APPROACHES AR FROM THE NORTH...AND CONVECTION CHANCES WILL
INCREASE OVER NORTHERN AR. AFTERNOON HEATING INSTABILITY WILL ALSO
HELP CONVECTION POTENTIAL IN THE AFTERNOON TO EARLY EVENING. SHORT
WAVE MOVEMENT MAY BE MORE LOCATED OVER NORTHERN PARTS OF AR...AND
THE HIGHEST CHANCES OF CONVECTION WILL BE OVER THAT REGION. NORTHERN
AR COULD ALSO SEE HEAVY RAIN OVER A SEVERAL DAY PERIOD WITH THE
EXPECTED MOVEMENT OF STORM COMPLEXES...AND LOCALIZED FLOODING...
POSSIBLE ELEVATED RIVER AND FLASH FLOODING MAY BE SEEN. TEMPERATURES
WILL BE AROUND NORMAL VALUES...EXCEPT THOSE AREAS THAT RECEIVE MORE
RAIN...WITH TEMPERATURES A BIT LOWER.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BATESVILLE AR     89  75  89  71 /  60  50  50  50
CAMDEN AR         92  75  93  75 /  20  20  20  40
HARRISON AR       89  73  87  68 /  50  40  50  50
HOT SPRINGS AR    92  75  92  74 /  20  20  20  40
LITTLE ROCK   AR  93  76  93  75 /  20  20  30  50
MONTICELLO AR     92  76  93  75 /  20  20  20  40
MOUNT IDA AR      90  74  90  74 /  20  20  20  40
MOUNTAIN HOME AR  88  73  89  69 /  60  50  50  50
NEWPORT AR        89  74  88  72 /  60  50  50  50
PINE BLUFF AR     91  75  92  74 /  20  20  20  40
RUSSELLVILLE AR   93  74  92  72 /  30  20  40  50
SEARCY AR         92  75  91  72 /  30  30  40  50
STUTTGART AR      91  75  91  73 /  20  20  30  50
&&

.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&

$$


AVIATION...65





000
FXUS64 KLZK 011133 AAA
AFDLZK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATE FOR AVIATION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
630 AM CDT WED JUL 01 2015

.AVIATION...

OVERALL VFR FLIGHT CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
MAINLY MID TO HIGH CLOUDS WILL STREAM OVER THE REGION. THIS MORNING
A THUNDERSTORM COMPLEX WILL MOVE INTO NORTHERN TO NE AR...WITH
ISOLATED MVFR CEILINGS WITH STORMS. WINDS WILL BE S TO SW AT 5 TO 10
MPH THIS MORNING BECOMING 7 TO 18 MPH WITH SOME GUSTS TO 20 MPH.
ALSO THIS AFTERNOON TO EARLY EVENING...ISOLATED CONVECTION WILL BE
SEEN OVER MUCH OF AR...WITH ISOLATED MVFR CEILINGS WITH STORMS. USED
VCSH OR VCTS TO START WHILE A TEMPO GROUP AT KBPK THIS MORNING. (59)

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 311 AM CDT WED JUL 1 2015/

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY TEXT

FLOW ALOFT REMAINS PREDOMINATELY FROM THE NW OVER THE REGION...WHICH
WILL BE SENDING SEVERAL UPPER WAVES SE OVER THE STATE IN THE COMING
DAYS. THIS WILL KEEP CHANCES FOR PRECIP IN THE FORECAST THROUGH THE
ENTIRE SHORT TERM PERIOD FOR AT LEAST SOME PORTION OF THE CWA...

CONVECTION IS ONGOING ACROSS CENTRAL MO EARLY THIS MORNING AS ONE
SUCH UPPER WAVE IS DROPPING SE OVER MO. THIS DISTURBANCE WILL
CONTINUE TO DROP SE...WITH CONVECTION EXPECTED TO CONTINUE AS THE
ACTIVITY DROPS FROM CENTRAL MO INTO SRN AND SERN MO...AND EVENTUALLY
INTO PORTIONS OF NERN AR LATER THIS MORNING. LOOKS LIKE THE MAJORITY
OF THIS CONVECTION WILL REMAIN NE OF THE CWA...BUT DO THINK SOME
SHRA/TSRA WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE FAR NERN AND EVEN SOME
COUNTIES FURTHER WEST ALONG THE MO BORDER. AS A RESULT...THIS IS
WHERE THE HIGHEST POPS REMAIN THIS MORNING. POPS WILL REMAIN UP
THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON ALSO AS ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT FURTHER SW
COULD BE SEEN ALONG ANY OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES THAT COULD INTERACT WITH
THE UNSTABLE CONDITIONS FURTHER SW. BECAUSE OF THE UNSTABLE AIRMASS
EXPECTED...SOME STORMS COULD BECOME SVR...WITH MAINLY A DAMAGING
WIND THREAT. DO THINK SOME LARGE HAIL COULD BE SEEN AS
WELL...ESPECIALLY GIVEN THE AMOUNT OF CAPE IN THE HAIL GROWTH ZONE
IN THE FORECAST SOUNDINGS.

ANOTHER UPPER WAVE WILL DROP SE OVER THE REGION THIS EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT TONIGHT...WITH MORE SHRA/TSRA POSSIBLE. HIGHEST POPS
TONIGHT WILL AGAIN BE ACROSS THE NRN AND NERN COUNTIES. SOME
ISOLATED SHRA/TSRA COULD STILL BE SEEN FURTHER SOUTH AND
WEST...MAINLY AS A RESULT OF AFTERNOON HEATING. CHANCES FOR PRECIP
WILL INCREASE FURTHER SOUTH AND WEST BY LATE THU INTO FRI AS A MORE
POTENT UPPER WAVE MOVES OVER AR...WITH POTENTIAL FOR MORE WIDESPREAD
CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY INCREASING CWA WIDE. WILL KEEP POPS UP INTO THE
WEEKEND AS MORE UPPER WAVES PASS OVER THE STATE. SOME LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL MAY BE SEEN IN THE COMING DAYS...ESPECIALLY LATER IN THE
WEEK AS SOME AREAS SEE MULTIPLE ROUNDS OF SHRA/TSRA. MAY NEED TO
CONSIDER A FLASH FLOOD WATCH IN THE COMING DAYS AS LOCATION AND
TIMING DETAILS BECOME MORE CLEAR OVER TIME LATER THIS WEEK.

&&

.LONG TERM...SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY

THE EXTENDED FORECAST WILL BE UNSETTLED WITH CHANCES OF CONVECTION
ALMOST EVERY DAY. AN UPPER NW FLOW AND OVERALL UPPER LOW PRESSURE
TROUGH WILL SET UP ACROSS THE REGION...WITH UPPER SHORT WAVE ENERGY
EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH THE REGION AND PRODUCE CONVECTION. TIMING
OF THE UPPER ENERGY WILL BE TOUGH TO FINE TUNE...BUT FORECAST DOES
HAVE SOME CHANCE OF CONVECTION EACH DAY. ON TUESDAY A FRONTAL
BOUNDARY APPROACHES AR FROM THE NORTH...AND CONVECTION CHANCES WILL
INCREASE OVER NORTHERN AR. AFTERNOON HEATING INSTABILITY WILL ALSO
HELP CONVECTION POTENTIAL IN THE AFTERNOON TO EARLY EVENING. SHORT
WAVE MOVEMENT MAY BE MORE LOCATED OVER NORTHERN PARTS OF AR...AND
THE HIGHEST CHANCES OF CONVECTION WILL BE OVER THAT REGION. NORTHERN
AR COULD ALSO SEE HEAVY RAIN OVER A SEVERAL DAY PERIOD WITH THE
EXPECTED MOVEMENT OF STORM COMPLEXES...AND LOCALIZED FLOODING...
POSSIBLE ELEVATED RIVER AND FLASH FLOODING MAY BE SEEN. TEMPERATURES
WILL BE AROUND NORMAL VALUES...EXCEPT THOSE AREAS THAT RECEIVE MORE
RAIN...WITH TEMPERATURES A BIT LOWER.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BATESVILLE AR     89  75  89  71 /  40  50  50  50
CAMDEN AR         92  75  93  75 /  20  20  20  40
HARRISON AR       89  73  87  68 /  40  40  50  50
HOT SPRINGS AR    92  75  92  74 /  20  20  20  40
LITTLE ROCK   AR  93  76  93  75 /  20  20  30  50
MONTICELLO AR     92  76  93  75 /  20  20  20  40
MOUNT IDA AR      90  74  90  74 /  20  20  20  40
MOUNTAIN HOME AR  88  73  89  69 /  50  50  50  50
NEWPORT AR        89  74  88  72 /  50  50  50  50
PINE BLUFF AR     91  75  92  74 /  20  20  20  40
RUSSELLVILLE AR   93  74  92  72 /  20  20  40  50
SEARCY AR         92  75  91  72 /  30  30  40  50
STUTTGART AR      91  75  91  73 /  20  20  30  50
&&

.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...62 / LONG TERM...59








000
FXUS64 KLZK 011133 AAA
AFDLZK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATE FOR AVIATION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
630 AM CDT WED JUL 01 2015

.AVIATION...

OVERALL VFR FLIGHT CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
MAINLY MID TO HIGH CLOUDS WILL STREAM OVER THE REGION. THIS MORNING
A THUNDERSTORM COMPLEX WILL MOVE INTO NORTHERN TO NE AR...WITH
ISOLATED MVFR CEILINGS WITH STORMS. WINDS WILL BE S TO SW AT 5 TO 10
MPH THIS MORNING BECOMING 7 TO 18 MPH WITH SOME GUSTS TO 20 MPH.
ALSO THIS AFTERNOON TO EARLY EVENING...ISOLATED CONVECTION WILL BE
SEEN OVER MUCH OF AR...WITH ISOLATED MVFR CEILINGS WITH STORMS. USED
VCSH OR VCTS TO START WHILE A TEMPO GROUP AT KBPK THIS MORNING. (59)

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 311 AM CDT WED JUL 1 2015/

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY TEXT

FLOW ALOFT REMAINS PREDOMINATELY FROM THE NW OVER THE REGION...WHICH
WILL BE SENDING SEVERAL UPPER WAVES SE OVER THE STATE IN THE COMING
DAYS. THIS WILL KEEP CHANCES FOR PRECIP IN THE FORECAST THROUGH THE
ENTIRE SHORT TERM PERIOD FOR AT LEAST SOME PORTION OF THE CWA...

CONVECTION IS ONGOING ACROSS CENTRAL MO EARLY THIS MORNING AS ONE
SUCH UPPER WAVE IS DROPPING SE OVER MO. THIS DISTURBANCE WILL
CONTINUE TO DROP SE...WITH CONVECTION EXPECTED TO CONTINUE AS THE
ACTIVITY DROPS FROM CENTRAL MO INTO SRN AND SERN MO...AND EVENTUALLY
INTO PORTIONS OF NERN AR LATER THIS MORNING. LOOKS LIKE THE MAJORITY
OF THIS CONVECTION WILL REMAIN NE OF THE CWA...BUT DO THINK SOME
SHRA/TSRA WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE FAR NERN AND EVEN SOME
COUNTIES FURTHER WEST ALONG THE MO BORDER. AS A RESULT...THIS IS
WHERE THE HIGHEST POPS REMAIN THIS MORNING. POPS WILL REMAIN UP
THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON ALSO AS ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT FURTHER SW
COULD BE SEEN ALONG ANY OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES THAT COULD INTERACT WITH
THE UNSTABLE CONDITIONS FURTHER SW. BECAUSE OF THE UNSTABLE AIRMASS
EXPECTED...SOME STORMS COULD BECOME SVR...WITH MAINLY A DAMAGING
WIND THREAT. DO THINK SOME LARGE HAIL COULD BE SEEN AS
WELL...ESPECIALLY GIVEN THE AMOUNT OF CAPE IN THE HAIL GROWTH ZONE
IN THE FORECAST SOUNDINGS.

ANOTHER UPPER WAVE WILL DROP SE OVER THE REGION THIS EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT TONIGHT...WITH MORE SHRA/TSRA POSSIBLE. HIGHEST POPS
TONIGHT WILL AGAIN BE ACROSS THE NRN AND NERN COUNTIES. SOME
ISOLATED SHRA/TSRA COULD STILL BE SEEN FURTHER SOUTH AND
WEST...MAINLY AS A RESULT OF AFTERNOON HEATING. CHANCES FOR PRECIP
WILL INCREASE FURTHER SOUTH AND WEST BY LATE THU INTO FRI AS A MORE
POTENT UPPER WAVE MOVES OVER AR...WITH POTENTIAL FOR MORE WIDESPREAD
CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY INCREASING CWA WIDE. WILL KEEP POPS UP INTO THE
WEEKEND AS MORE UPPER WAVES PASS OVER THE STATE. SOME LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL MAY BE SEEN IN THE COMING DAYS...ESPECIALLY LATER IN THE
WEEK AS SOME AREAS SEE MULTIPLE ROUNDS OF SHRA/TSRA. MAY NEED TO
CONSIDER A FLASH FLOOD WATCH IN THE COMING DAYS AS LOCATION AND
TIMING DETAILS BECOME MORE CLEAR OVER TIME LATER THIS WEEK.

&&

.LONG TERM...SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY

THE EXTENDED FORECAST WILL BE UNSETTLED WITH CHANCES OF CONVECTION
ALMOST EVERY DAY. AN UPPER NW FLOW AND OVERALL UPPER LOW PRESSURE
TROUGH WILL SET UP ACROSS THE REGION...WITH UPPER SHORT WAVE ENERGY
EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH THE REGION AND PRODUCE CONVECTION. TIMING
OF THE UPPER ENERGY WILL BE TOUGH TO FINE TUNE...BUT FORECAST DOES
HAVE SOME CHANCE OF CONVECTION EACH DAY. ON TUESDAY A FRONTAL
BOUNDARY APPROACHES AR FROM THE NORTH...AND CONVECTION CHANCES WILL
INCREASE OVER NORTHERN AR. AFTERNOON HEATING INSTABILITY WILL ALSO
HELP CONVECTION POTENTIAL IN THE AFTERNOON TO EARLY EVENING. SHORT
WAVE MOVEMENT MAY BE MORE LOCATED OVER NORTHERN PARTS OF AR...AND
THE HIGHEST CHANCES OF CONVECTION WILL BE OVER THAT REGION. NORTHERN
AR COULD ALSO SEE HEAVY RAIN OVER A SEVERAL DAY PERIOD WITH THE
EXPECTED MOVEMENT OF STORM COMPLEXES...AND LOCALIZED FLOODING...
POSSIBLE ELEVATED RIVER AND FLASH FLOODING MAY BE SEEN. TEMPERATURES
WILL BE AROUND NORMAL VALUES...EXCEPT THOSE AREAS THAT RECEIVE MORE
RAIN...WITH TEMPERATURES A BIT LOWER.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BATESVILLE AR     89  75  89  71 /  40  50  50  50
CAMDEN AR         92  75  93  75 /  20  20  20  40
HARRISON AR       89  73  87  68 /  40  40  50  50
HOT SPRINGS AR    92  75  92  74 /  20  20  20  40
LITTLE ROCK   AR  93  76  93  75 /  20  20  30  50
MONTICELLO AR     92  76  93  75 /  20  20  20  40
MOUNT IDA AR      90  74  90  74 /  20  20  20  40
MOUNTAIN HOME AR  88  73  89  69 /  50  50  50  50
NEWPORT AR        89  74  88  72 /  50  50  50  50
PINE BLUFF AR     91  75  92  74 /  20  20  20  40
RUSSELLVILLE AR   93  74  92  72 /  20  20  40  50
SEARCY AR         92  75  91  72 /  30  30  40  50
STUTTGART AR      91  75  91  73 /  20  20  30  50
&&

.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...62 / LONG TERM...59









000
FXUS64 KLZK 011133 AAA
AFDLZK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATE FOR AVIATION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
630 AM CDT WED JUL 01 2015

.AVIATION...

OVERALL VFR FLIGHT CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
MAINLY MID TO HIGH CLOUDS WILL STREAM OVER THE REGION. THIS MORNING
A THUNDERSTORM COMPLEX WILL MOVE INTO NORTHERN TO NE AR...WITH
ISOLATED MVFR CEILINGS WITH STORMS. WINDS WILL BE S TO SW AT 5 TO 10
MPH THIS MORNING BECOMING 7 TO 18 MPH WITH SOME GUSTS TO 20 MPH.
ALSO THIS AFTERNOON TO EARLY EVENING...ISOLATED CONVECTION WILL BE
SEEN OVER MUCH OF AR...WITH ISOLATED MVFR CEILINGS WITH STORMS. USED
VCSH OR VCTS TO START WHILE A TEMPO GROUP AT KBPK THIS MORNING. (59)

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 311 AM CDT WED JUL 1 2015/

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY TEXT

FLOW ALOFT REMAINS PREDOMINATELY FROM THE NW OVER THE REGION...WHICH
WILL BE SENDING SEVERAL UPPER WAVES SE OVER THE STATE IN THE COMING
DAYS. THIS WILL KEEP CHANCES FOR PRECIP IN THE FORECAST THROUGH THE
ENTIRE SHORT TERM PERIOD FOR AT LEAST SOME PORTION OF THE CWA...

CONVECTION IS ONGOING ACROSS CENTRAL MO EARLY THIS MORNING AS ONE
SUCH UPPER WAVE IS DROPPING SE OVER MO. THIS DISTURBANCE WILL
CONTINUE TO DROP SE...WITH CONVECTION EXPECTED TO CONTINUE AS THE
ACTIVITY DROPS FROM CENTRAL MO INTO SRN AND SERN MO...AND EVENTUALLY
INTO PORTIONS OF NERN AR LATER THIS MORNING. LOOKS LIKE THE MAJORITY
OF THIS CONVECTION WILL REMAIN NE OF THE CWA...BUT DO THINK SOME
SHRA/TSRA WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE FAR NERN AND EVEN SOME
COUNTIES FURTHER WEST ALONG THE MO BORDER. AS A RESULT...THIS IS
WHERE THE HIGHEST POPS REMAIN THIS MORNING. POPS WILL REMAIN UP
THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON ALSO AS ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT FURTHER SW
COULD BE SEEN ALONG ANY OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES THAT COULD INTERACT WITH
THE UNSTABLE CONDITIONS FURTHER SW. BECAUSE OF THE UNSTABLE AIRMASS
EXPECTED...SOME STORMS COULD BECOME SVR...WITH MAINLY A DAMAGING
WIND THREAT. DO THINK SOME LARGE HAIL COULD BE SEEN AS
WELL...ESPECIALLY GIVEN THE AMOUNT OF CAPE IN THE HAIL GROWTH ZONE
IN THE FORECAST SOUNDINGS.

ANOTHER UPPER WAVE WILL DROP SE OVER THE REGION THIS EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT TONIGHT...WITH MORE SHRA/TSRA POSSIBLE. HIGHEST POPS
TONIGHT WILL AGAIN BE ACROSS THE NRN AND NERN COUNTIES. SOME
ISOLATED SHRA/TSRA COULD STILL BE SEEN FURTHER SOUTH AND
WEST...MAINLY AS A RESULT OF AFTERNOON HEATING. CHANCES FOR PRECIP
WILL INCREASE FURTHER SOUTH AND WEST BY LATE THU INTO FRI AS A MORE
POTENT UPPER WAVE MOVES OVER AR...WITH POTENTIAL FOR MORE WIDESPREAD
CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY INCREASING CWA WIDE. WILL KEEP POPS UP INTO THE
WEEKEND AS MORE UPPER WAVES PASS OVER THE STATE. SOME LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL MAY BE SEEN IN THE COMING DAYS...ESPECIALLY LATER IN THE
WEEK AS SOME AREAS SEE MULTIPLE ROUNDS OF SHRA/TSRA. MAY NEED TO
CONSIDER A FLASH FLOOD WATCH IN THE COMING DAYS AS LOCATION AND
TIMING DETAILS BECOME MORE CLEAR OVER TIME LATER THIS WEEK.

&&

.LONG TERM...SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY

THE EXTENDED FORECAST WILL BE UNSETTLED WITH CHANCES OF CONVECTION
ALMOST EVERY DAY. AN UPPER NW FLOW AND OVERALL UPPER LOW PRESSURE
TROUGH WILL SET UP ACROSS THE REGION...WITH UPPER SHORT WAVE ENERGY
EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH THE REGION AND PRODUCE CONVECTION. TIMING
OF THE UPPER ENERGY WILL BE TOUGH TO FINE TUNE...BUT FORECAST DOES
HAVE SOME CHANCE OF CONVECTION EACH DAY. ON TUESDAY A FRONTAL
BOUNDARY APPROACHES AR FROM THE NORTH...AND CONVECTION CHANCES WILL
INCREASE OVER NORTHERN AR. AFTERNOON HEATING INSTABILITY WILL ALSO
HELP CONVECTION POTENTIAL IN THE AFTERNOON TO EARLY EVENING. SHORT
WAVE MOVEMENT MAY BE MORE LOCATED OVER NORTHERN PARTS OF AR...AND
THE HIGHEST CHANCES OF CONVECTION WILL BE OVER THAT REGION. NORTHERN
AR COULD ALSO SEE HEAVY RAIN OVER A SEVERAL DAY PERIOD WITH THE
EXPECTED MOVEMENT OF STORM COMPLEXES...AND LOCALIZED FLOODING...
POSSIBLE ELEVATED RIVER AND FLASH FLOODING MAY BE SEEN. TEMPERATURES
WILL BE AROUND NORMAL VALUES...EXCEPT THOSE AREAS THAT RECEIVE MORE
RAIN...WITH TEMPERATURES A BIT LOWER.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BATESVILLE AR     89  75  89  71 /  40  50  50  50
CAMDEN AR         92  75  93  75 /  20  20  20  40
HARRISON AR       89  73  87  68 /  40  40  50  50
HOT SPRINGS AR    92  75  92  74 /  20  20  20  40
LITTLE ROCK   AR  93  76  93  75 /  20  20  30  50
MONTICELLO AR     92  76  93  75 /  20  20  20  40
MOUNT IDA AR      90  74  90  74 /  20  20  20  40
MOUNTAIN HOME AR  88  73  89  69 /  50  50  50  50
NEWPORT AR        89  74  88  72 /  50  50  50  50
PINE BLUFF AR     91  75  92  74 /  20  20  20  40
RUSSELLVILLE AR   93  74  92  72 /  20  20  40  50
SEARCY AR         92  75  91  72 /  30  30  40  50
STUTTGART AR      91  75  91  73 /  20  20  30  50
&&

.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...62 / LONG TERM...59








000
FXUS64 KLZK 011133 AAA
AFDLZK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATE FOR AVIATION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
630 AM CDT WED JUL 01 2015

.AVIATION...

OVERALL VFR FLIGHT CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
MAINLY MID TO HIGH CLOUDS WILL STREAM OVER THE REGION. THIS MORNING
A THUNDERSTORM COMPLEX WILL MOVE INTO NORTHERN TO NE AR...WITH
ISOLATED MVFR CEILINGS WITH STORMS. WINDS WILL BE S TO SW AT 5 TO 10
MPH THIS MORNING BECOMING 7 TO 18 MPH WITH SOME GUSTS TO 20 MPH.
ALSO THIS AFTERNOON TO EARLY EVENING...ISOLATED CONVECTION WILL BE
SEEN OVER MUCH OF AR...WITH ISOLATED MVFR CEILINGS WITH STORMS. USED
VCSH OR VCTS TO START WHILE A TEMPO GROUP AT KBPK THIS MORNING. (59)

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 311 AM CDT WED JUL 1 2015/

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY TEXT

FLOW ALOFT REMAINS PREDOMINATELY FROM THE NW OVER THE REGION...WHICH
WILL BE SENDING SEVERAL UPPER WAVES SE OVER THE STATE IN THE COMING
DAYS. THIS WILL KEEP CHANCES FOR PRECIP IN THE FORECAST THROUGH THE
ENTIRE SHORT TERM PERIOD FOR AT LEAST SOME PORTION OF THE CWA...

CONVECTION IS ONGOING ACROSS CENTRAL MO EARLY THIS MORNING AS ONE
SUCH UPPER WAVE IS DROPPING SE OVER MO. THIS DISTURBANCE WILL
CONTINUE TO DROP SE...WITH CONVECTION EXPECTED TO CONTINUE AS THE
ACTIVITY DROPS FROM CENTRAL MO INTO SRN AND SERN MO...AND EVENTUALLY
INTO PORTIONS OF NERN AR LATER THIS MORNING. LOOKS LIKE THE MAJORITY
OF THIS CONVECTION WILL REMAIN NE OF THE CWA...BUT DO THINK SOME
SHRA/TSRA WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE FAR NERN AND EVEN SOME
COUNTIES FURTHER WEST ALONG THE MO BORDER. AS A RESULT...THIS IS
WHERE THE HIGHEST POPS REMAIN THIS MORNING. POPS WILL REMAIN UP
THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON ALSO AS ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT FURTHER SW
COULD BE SEEN ALONG ANY OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES THAT COULD INTERACT WITH
THE UNSTABLE CONDITIONS FURTHER SW. BECAUSE OF THE UNSTABLE AIRMASS
EXPECTED...SOME STORMS COULD BECOME SVR...WITH MAINLY A DAMAGING
WIND THREAT. DO THINK SOME LARGE HAIL COULD BE SEEN AS
WELL...ESPECIALLY GIVEN THE AMOUNT OF CAPE IN THE HAIL GROWTH ZONE
IN THE FORECAST SOUNDINGS.

ANOTHER UPPER WAVE WILL DROP SE OVER THE REGION THIS EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT TONIGHT...WITH MORE SHRA/TSRA POSSIBLE. HIGHEST POPS
TONIGHT WILL AGAIN BE ACROSS THE NRN AND NERN COUNTIES. SOME
ISOLATED SHRA/TSRA COULD STILL BE SEEN FURTHER SOUTH AND
WEST...MAINLY AS A RESULT OF AFTERNOON HEATING. CHANCES FOR PRECIP
WILL INCREASE FURTHER SOUTH AND WEST BY LATE THU INTO FRI AS A MORE
POTENT UPPER WAVE MOVES OVER AR...WITH POTENTIAL FOR MORE WIDESPREAD
CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY INCREASING CWA WIDE. WILL KEEP POPS UP INTO THE
WEEKEND AS MORE UPPER WAVES PASS OVER THE STATE. SOME LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL MAY BE SEEN IN THE COMING DAYS...ESPECIALLY LATER IN THE
WEEK AS SOME AREAS SEE MULTIPLE ROUNDS OF SHRA/TSRA. MAY NEED TO
CONSIDER A FLASH FLOOD WATCH IN THE COMING DAYS AS LOCATION AND
TIMING DETAILS BECOME MORE CLEAR OVER TIME LATER THIS WEEK.

&&

.LONG TERM...SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY

THE EXTENDED FORECAST WILL BE UNSETTLED WITH CHANCES OF CONVECTION
ALMOST EVERY DAY. AN UPPER NW FLOW AND OVERALL UPPER LOW PRESSURE
TROUGH WILL SET UP ACROSS THE REGION...WITH UPPER SHORT WAVE ENERGY
EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH THE REGION AND PRODUCE CONVECTION. TIMING
OF THE UPPER ENERGY WILL BE TOUGH TO FINE TUNE...BUT FORECAST DOES
HAVE SOME CHANCE OF CONVECTION EACH DAY. ON TUESDAY A FRONTAL
BOUNDARY APPROACHES AR FROM THE NORTH...AND CONVECTION CHANCES WILL
INCREASE OVER NORTHERN AR. AFTERNOON HEATING INSTABILITY WILL ALSO
HELP CONVECTION POTENTIAL IN THE AFTERNOON TO EARLY EVENING. SHORT
WAVE MOVEMENT MAY BE MORE LOCATED OVER NORTHERN PARTS OF AR...AND
THE HIGHEST CHANCES OF CONVECTION WILL BE OVER THAT REGION. NORTHERN
AR COULD ALSO SEE HEAVY RAIN OVER A SEVERAL DAY PERIOD WITH THE
EXPECTED MOVEMENT OF STORM COMPLEXES...AND LOCALIZED FLOODING...
POSSIBLE ELEVATED RIVER AND FLASH FLOODING MAY BE SEEN. TEMPERATURES
WILL BE AROUND NORMAL VALUES...EXCEPT THOSE AREAS THAT RECEIVE MORE
RAIN...WITH TEMPERATURES A BIT LOWER.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BATESVILLE AR     89  75  89  71 /  40  50  50  50
CAMDEN AR         92  75  93  75 /  20  20  20  40
HARRISON AR       89  73  87  68 /  40  40  50  50
HOT SPRINGS AR    92  75  92  74 /  20  20  20  40
LITTLE ROCK   AR  93  76  93  75 /  20  20  30  50
MONTICELLO AR     92  76  93  75 /  20  20  20  40
MOUNT IDA AR      90  74  90  74 /  20  20  20  40
MOUNTAIN HOME AR  88  73  89  69 /  50  50  50  50
NEWPORT AR        89  74  88  72 /  50  50  50  50
PINE BLUFF AR     91  75  92  74 /  20  20  20  40
RUSSELLVILLE AR   93  74  92  72 /  20  20  40  50
SEARCY AR         92  75  91  72 /  30  30  40  50
STUTTGART AR      91  75  91  73 /  20  20  30  50
&&

.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...62 / LONG TERM...59









000
FXUS64 KLZK 010811
AFDLZK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
311 AM CDT WED JUL 1 2015

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY TEXT

FLOW ALOFT REMAINS PREDOMINATELY FROM THE NW OVER THE REGION...WHICH
WILL BE SENDING SEVERAL UPPER WAVES SE OVER THE STATE IN THE COMING
DAYS. THIS WILL KEEP CHANCES FOR PRECIP IN THE FORECAST THROUGH THE
ENTIRE SHORT TERM PERIOD FOR AT LEAST SOME PORTION OF THE CWA...

CONVECTION IS ONGOING ACROSS CENTRAL MO EARLY THIS MORNING AS ONE
SUCH UPPER WAVE IS DROPPING SE OVER MO. THIS DISTURBANCE WILL
CONTINUE TO DROP SE...WITH CONVECTION EXPECTED TO CONTINUE AS THE
ACTIVITY DROPS FROM CENTRAL MO INTO SRN AND SERN MO...AND EVENTUALLY
INTO PORTIONS OF NERN AR LATER THIS MORNING. LOOKS LIKE THE MAJORITY
OF THIS CONVECTION WILL REMAIN NE OF THE CWA...BUT DO THINK SOME
SHRA/TSRA WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE FAR NERN AND EVEN SOME
COUNTIES FURTHER WEST ALONG THE MO BORDER. AS A RESULT...THIS IS
WHERE THE HIGHEST POPS REMAIN THIS MORNING. POPS WILL REMAIN UP
THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON ALSO AS ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT FURTHER SW
COULD BE SEEN ALONG ANY OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES THAT COULD INTERACT WITH
THE UNSTABLE CONDITIONS FURTHER SW. BECAUSE OF THE UNSTABLE AIRMASS
EXPECTED...SOME STORMS COULD BECOME SVR...WITH MAINLY A DAMAGING
WIND THREAT. DO THINK SOME LARGE HAIL COULD BE SEEN AS
WELL...ESPECIALLY GIVEN THE AMOUNT OF CAPE IN THE HAIL GROWTH ZONE
IN THE FORECAST SOUNDINGS.

ANOTHER UPPER WAVE WILL DROP SE OVER THE REGION THIS EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT TONIGHT...WITH MORE SHRA/TSRA POSSIBLE. HIGHEST POPS
TONIGHT WILL AGAIN BE ACROSS THE NRN AND NERN COUNTIES. SOME
ISOLATED SHRA/TSRA COULD STILL BE SEEN FURTHER SOUTH AND
WEST...MAINLY AS A RESULT OF AFTERNOON HEATING. CHANCES FOR PRECIP
WILL INCREASE FURTHER SOUTH AND WEST BY LATE THU INTO FRI AS A MORE
POTENT UPPER WAVE MOVES OVER AR...WITH POTENTIAL FOR MORE WIDESPREAD
CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY INCREASING CWA WIDE. WILL KEEP POPS UP INTO THE
WEEKEND AS MORE UPPER WAVES PASS OVER THE STATE. SOME LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL MAY BE SEEN IN THE COMING DAYS...ESPECIALLY LATER IN THE
WEEK AS SOME AREAS SEE MULTIPLE ROUNDS OF SHRA/TSRA. MAY NEED TO
CONSIDER A FLASH FLOOD WATCH IN THE COMING DAYS AS LOCATION AND
TIMING DETAILS BECOME MORE CLEAR OVER TIME LATER THIS WEEK.

&&

.LONG TERM...SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY

THE EXTENDED FORECAST WILL BE UNSETTLED WITH CHANCES OF CONVECTION
ALMOST EVERY DAY. AN UPPER NW FLOW AND OVERALL UPPER LOW PRESSURE
TROUGH WILL SET UP ACROSS THE REGION...WITH UPPER SHORT WAVE ENERGY
EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH THE REGION AND PRODUCE CONVECTION. TIMING
OF THE UPPER ENERGY WILL BE TOUGH TO FINE TUNE...BUT FORECAST DOES
HAVE SOME CHANCE OF CONVECTION EACH DAY. ON TUESDAY A FRONTAL
BOUNDARY APPROACHES AR FROM THE NORTH...AND CONVECTION CHANCES WILL
INCREASE OVER NORTHERN AR. AFTERNOON HEATING INSTABILITY WILL ALSO
HELP CONVECTION POTENTIAL IN THE AFTERNOON TO EARLY EVENING. SHORT
WAVE MOVEMENT MAY BE MORE LOCATED OVER NORTHERN PARTS OF AR...AND
THE HIGHEST CHANCES OF CONVECTION WILL BE OVER THAT REGION. NORTHERN
AR COULD ALSO SEE HEAVY RAIN OVER A SEVERAL DAY PERIOD WITH THE
EXPECTED MOVEMENT OF STORM COMPLEXES...AND LOCALIZED FLOODING...
POSSIBLE ELEVATED RIVER AND FLASH FLOODING MAY BE SEEN. TEMPERATURES
WILL BE AROUND NORMAL VALUES...EXCEPT THOSE AREAS THAT RECEIVE MORE
RAIN...WITH TEMPERATURES A BIT LOWER.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BATESVILLE AR     89  75  89  71 /  40  50  50  50
CAMDEN AR         92  75  93  75 /  20  20  20  40
HARRISON AR       89  73  87  68 /  40  40  50  50
HOT SPRINGS AR    92  75  92  74 /  20  20  20  40
LITTLE ROCK   AR  93  76  93  75 /  20  20  30  50
MONTICELLO AR     92  76  93  75 /  20  20  20  40
MOUNT IDA AR      90  74  90  74 /  20  20  20  40
MOUNTAIN HOME AR  88  73  89  69 /  50  50  50  50
NEWPORT AR        89  74  88  72 /  50  50  50  50
PINE BLUFF AR     91  75  92  74 /  20  20  20  40
RUSSELLVILLE AR   93  74  92  72 /  20  20  40  50
SEARCY AR         92  75  91  72 /  30  30  40  50
STUTTGART AR      91  75  91  73 /  20  20  30  50
&&

.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...62 / LONG TERM...59






000
FXUS64 KLZK 010811
AFDLZK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
311 AM CDT WED JUL 1 2015

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY TEXT

FLOW ALOFT REMAINS PREDOMINATELY FROM THE NW OVER THE REGION...WHICH
WILL BE SENDING SEVERAL UPPER WAVES SE OVER THE STATE IN THE COMING
DAYS. THIS WILL KEEP CHANCES FOR PRECIP IN THE FORECAST THROUGH THE
ENTIRE SHORT TERM PERIOD FOR AT LEAST SOME PORTION OF THE CWA...

CONVECTION IS ONGOING ACROSS CENTRAL MO EARLY THIS MORNING AS ONE
SUCH UPPER WAVE IS DROPPING SE OVER MO. THIS DISTURBANCE WILL
CONTINUE TO DROP SE...WITH CONVECTION EXPECTED TO CONTINUE AS THE
ACTIVITY DROPS FROM CENTRAL MO INTO SRN AND SERN MO...AND EVENTUALLY
INTO PORTIONS OF NERN AR LATER THIS MORNING. LOOKS LIKE THE MAJORITY
OF THIS CONVECTION WILL REMAIN NE OF THE CWA...BUT DO THINK SOME
SHRA/TSRA WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE FAR NERN AND EVEN SOME
COUNTIES FURTHER WEST ALONG THE MO BORDER. AS A RESULT...THIS IS
WHERE THE HIGHEST POPS REMAIN THIS MORNING. POPS WILL REMAIN UP
THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON ALSO AS ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT FURTHER SW
COULD BE SEEN ALONG ANY OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES THAT COULD INTERACT WITH
THE UNSTABLE CONDITIONS FURTHER SW. BECAUSE OF THE UNSTABLE AIRMASS
EXPECTED...SOME STORMS COULD BECOME SVR...WITH MAINLY A DAMAGING
WIND THREAT. DO THINK SOME LARGE HAIL COULD BE SEEN AS
WELL...ESPECIALLY GIVEN THE AMOUNT OF CAPE IN THE HAIL GROWTH ZONE
IN THE FORECAST SOUNDINGS.

ANOTHER UPPER WAVE WILL DROP SE OVER THE REGION THIS EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT TONIGHT...WITH MORE SHRA/TSRA POSSIBLE. HIGHEST POPS
TONIGHT WILL AGAIN BE ACROSS THE NRN AND NERN COUNTIES. SOME
ISOLATED SHRA/TSRA COULD STILL BE SEEN FURTHER SOUTH AND
WEST...MAINLY AS A RESULT OF AFTERNOON HEATING. CHANCES FOR PRECIP
WILL INCREASE FURTHER SOUTH AND WEST BY LATE THU INTO FRI AS A MORE
POTENT UPPER WAVE MOVES OVER AR...WITH POTENTIAL FOR MORE WIDESPREAD
CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY INCREASING CWA WIDE. WILL KEEP POPS UP INTO THE
WEEKEND AS MORE UPPER WAVES PASS OVER THE STATE. SOME LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL MAY BE SEEN IN THE COMING DAYS...ESPECIALLY LATER IN THE
WEEK AS SOME AREAS SEE MULTIPLE ROUNDS OF SHRA/TSRA. MAY NEED TO
CONSIDER A FLASH FLOOD WATCH IN THE COMING DAYS AS LOCATION AND
TIMING DETAILS BECOME MORE CLEAR OVER TIME LATER THIS WEEK.

&&

.LONG TERM...SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY

THE EXTENDED FORECAST WILL BE UNSETTLED WITH CHANCES OF CONVECTION
ALMOST EVERY DAY. AN UPPER NW FLOW AND OVERALL UPPER LOW PRESSURE
TROUGH WILL SET UP ACROSS THE REGION...WITH UPPER SHORT WAVE ENERGY
EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH THE REGION AND PRODUCE CONVECTION. TIMING
OF THE UPPER ENERGY WILL BE TOUGH TO FINE TUNE...BUT FORECAST DOES
HAVE SOME CHANCE OF CONVECTION EACH DAY. ON TUESDAY A FRONTAL
BOUNDARY APPROACHES AR FROM THE NORTH...AND CONVECTION CHANCES WILL
INCREASE OVER NORTHERN AR. AFTERNOON HEATING INSTABILITY WILL ALSO
HELP CONVECTION POTENTIAL IN THE AFTERNOON TO EARLY EVENING. SHORT
WAVE MOVEMENT MAY BE MORE LOCATED OVER NORTHERN PARTS OF AR...AND
THE HIGHEST CHANCES OF CONVECTION WILL BE OVER THAT REGION. NORTHERN
AR COULD ALSO SEE HEAVY RAIN OVER A SEVERAL DAY PERIOD WITH THE
EXPECTED MOVEMENT OF STORM COMPLEXES...AND LOCALIZED FLOODING...
POSSIBLE ELEVATED RIVER AND FLASH FLOODING MAY BE SEEN. TEMPERATURES
WILL BE AROUND NORMAL VALUES...EXCEPT THOSE AREAS THAT RECEIVE MORE
RAIN...WITH TEMPERATURES A BIT LOWER.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BATESVILLE AR     89  75  89  71 /  40  50  50  50
CAMDEN AR         92  75  93  75 /  20  20  20  40
HARRISON AR       89  73  87  68 /  40  40  50  50
HOT SPRINGS AR    92  75  92  74 /  20  20  20  40
LITTLE ROCK   AR  93  76  93  75 /  20  20  30  50
MONTICELLO AR     92  76  93  75 /  20  20  20  40
MOUNT IDA AR      90  74  90  74 /  20  20  20  40
MOUNTAIN HOME AR  88  73  89  69 /  50  50  50  50
NEWPORT AR        89  74  88  72 /  50  50  50  50
PINE BLUFF AR     91  75  92  74 /  20  20  20  40
RUSSELLVILLE AR   93  74  92  72 /  20  20  40  50
SEARCY AR         92  75  91  72 /  30  30  40  50
STUTTGART AR      91  75  91  73 /  20  20  30  50
&&

.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...62 / LONG TERM...59





000
FXUS64 KLZK 010544 AAA
AFDLZK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
1245 AM CDT WED JUL 01 2015

.AVIATION...

OVERALL VFR FLIGHT CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
MAINLY MID TO HIGH CLOUDS WILL STREAM OVER THE REGION. OVERNIGHT
CHANCE OF CONVECTION WILL BE LOW AND WILL NOT INCLUDE IN TAFS. WINDS
WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE...OR S TO SW AT 5 TO 10 MPH. ON WEDNESDAY
ADDITIONAL VFR CLOUDS WILL BE SEEN...WITH ISOLATED CONVECTION IN THE
AFTERNOON. USED VCSH OR VCTS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. WINDS ON WEDNESDAY
WILL BE SE TO SW AT 5 TO 15 MPH WITH SOME GUSTS TO 20 MPH.
(59)

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 232 PM CDT TUE JUN 30 2015/

SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT
OVERALL AN UNSETTLED WEATHER PATTERN IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD
THANKS TO A PERSISTENT NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. SAID FLOW IS EXPECTED
TO PERSIST THROUGH THE PERIOD AS DOMINANT WESTERN CONUS...BRIEFLY
KNOCKED DOWN...STARTS TO GET ESTABLISHED AGAIN. MODELS ARE IN CLOSE
ENOUGH AGREEMENT THAT A BLEND OF SOLUTIONS SEEMS JUSTIFIED AT THIS
TIME.

HAZY CONDITIONS PREVAIL ACROSS THE STATE AT THIS TIME BUT CLOUDS ARE
NOT TO BLAME. RATHER THE CULPRIT IS SMOKE...MOVING THROUGH THE
NORTHWEST FLOW FROM WILDFIRES RAGING ACROSS THE CANADIAN PRAIRIE
PROVENCE. BELIEVE MOST OF THE OVERNIGHT HOURS WILL BE DRY AS AREA IS
BETWEEN SYSTEMS DROPPING DOWN THROUGH THE AFOREMENTIONED NORTHWEST
FLOW WHICH WILL LOOKS TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE PERIOD.

NEXT UPPER FEATURE EXPECTED TO ARRIVE DURING THE DAY ON WEDNESDAY.
WITH PLENTY OF MOISTURE AROUND AND THE REMNANT OF AN OLD BOUNDARY
LURKING ABOUT...SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS APPEAR TO BE A
PRETTY GOOD BET...ESPECIALLY OVER THE NORTH AND NORTHEAST PARTS OF
THE STATE. THIS SYSTEM WILL BE FOLLOWED BY A SUCCESSION OF UPPER
IMPULSES TO KEEP AT LEAST SCATTERED PRECIPITATION IN THE FORECAST
THROUGH THE PERIOD.

OF COURSE IN THIS TYPE OF PATTERN...TIMING OF THESE IMPULSES IS
PROBLEMATIC AT BEST BUT THERE WILL BE A DEFINITE DIURNAL SLANT TO
THE PRECIPITATION AND THE NORTH SEEMINGLY IN THE BULLSEYES. WITH A
JUICY AIRMASS IN PLACE...ANY TRAINING OF CONVECTIVE CELLS COULD LEAD
TO FLOODING CONCERNS TEMPS FOR THE MOST PART WILL REMAIN CLOSE TO
SEASONAL NORMS.

LONG TERM...SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY...
LONG TERM BEGINS WITH NW FLOW IN PLACE ACROSS MUCH OF ARKANSAS WITH
A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE TO THE WEST. THROUGH THE WEEKEND...THE
RIDGE IN THE WESTERN UNITED STATES WILL EXPAND EASTWARD ACROSS
ARKANSAS AND BRING A RETURN OF ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR THE
BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK.

OF GREATER CONCERN WILL BE THE CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION FOR THE
HOLIDAY WEEKEND. MODELS ARE CURRENTLY IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH A
STALLED FRONT TO THE NORTH OF ARKANSAS AND CONTINUED ROUNDS OF
PRECIPITATION THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON. DRIER AIR BUILDS IN ON
MONDAY AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS ANCHORED ACROSS THE SE
UNITED STATES.

&&

.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&

$$











000
FXUS64 KLZK 010544 AAA
AFDLZK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
1245 AM CDT WED JUL 01 2015

.AVIATION...

OVERALL VFR FLIGHT CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
MAINLY MID TO HIGH CLOUDS WILL STREAM OVER THE REGION. OVERNIGHT
CHANCE OF CONVECTION WILL BE LOW AND WILL NOT INCLUDE IN TAFS. WINDS
WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE...OR S TO SW AT 5 TO 10 MPH. ON WEDNESDAY
ADDITIONAL VFR CLOUDS WILL BE SEEN...WITH ISOLATED CONVECTION IN THE
AFTERNOON. USED VCSH OR VCTS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. WINDS ON WEDNESDAY
WILL BE SE TO SW AT 5 TO 15 MPH WITH SOME GUSTS TO 20 MPH.
(59)

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 232 PM CDT TUE JUN 30 2015/

SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT
OVERALL AN UNSETTLED WEATHER PATTERN IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD
THANKS TO A PERSISTENT NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. SAID FLOW IS EXPECTED
TO PERSIST THROUGH THE PERIOD AS DOMINANT WESTERN CONUS...BRIEFLY
KNOCKED DOWN...STARTS TO GET ESTABLISHED AGAIN. MODELS ARE IN CLOSE
ENOUGH AGREEMENT THAT A BLEND OF SOLUTIONS SEEMS JUSTIFIED AT THIS
TIME.

HAZY CONDITIONS PREVAIL ACROSS THE STATE AT THIS TIME BUT CLOUDS ARE
NOT TO BLAME. RATHER THE CULPRIT IS SMOKE...MOVING THROUGH THE
NORTHWEST FLOW FROM WILDFIRES RAGING ACROSS THE CANADIAN PRAIRIE
PROVENCE. BELIEVE MOST OF THE OVERNIGHT HOURS WILL BE DRY AS AREA IS
BETWEEN SYSTEMS DROPPING DOWN THROUGH THE AFOREMENTIONED NORTHWEST
FLOW WHICH WILL LOOKS TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE PERIOD.

NEXT UPPER FEATURE EXPECTED TO ARRIVE DURING THE DAY ON WEDNESDAY.
WITH PLENTY OF MOISTURE AROUND AND THE REMNANT OF AN OLD BOUNDARY
LURKING ABOUT...SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS APPEAR TO BE A
PRETTY GOOD BET...ESPECIALLY OVER THE NORTH AND NORTHEAST PARTS OF
THE STATE. THIS SYSTEM WILL BE FOLLOWED BY A SUCCESSION OF UPPER
IMPULSES TO KEEP AT LEAST SCATTERED PRECIPITATION IN THE FORECAST
THROUGH THE PERIOD.

OF COURSE IN THIS TYPE OF PATTERN...TIMING OF THESE IMPULSES IS
PROBLEMATIC AT BEST BUT THERE WILL BE A DEFINITE DIURNAL SLANT TO
THE PRECIPITATION AND THE NORTH SEEMINGLY IN THE BULLSEYES. WITH A
JUICY AIRMASS IN PLACE...ANY TRAINING OF CONVECTIVE CELLS COULD LEAD
TO FLOODING CONCERNS TEMPS FOR THE MOST PART WILL REMAIN CLOSE TO
SEASONAL NORMS.

LONG TERM...SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY...
LONG TERM BEGINS WITH NW FLOW IN PLACE ACROSS MUCH OF ARKANSAS WITH
A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE TO THE WEST. THROUGH THE WEEKEND...THE
RIDGE IN THE WESTERN UNITED STATES WILL EXPAND EASTWARD ACROSS
ARKANSAS AND BRING A RETURN OF ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR THE
BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK.

OF GREATER CONCERN WILL BE THE CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION FOR THE
HOLIDAY WEEKEND. MODELS ARE CURRENTLY IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH A
STALLED FRONT TO THE NORTH OF ARKANSAS AND CONTINUED ROUNDS OF
PRECIPITATION THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON. DRIER AIR BUILDS IN ON
MONDAY AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS ANCHORED ACROSS THE SE
UNITED STATES.

&&

.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&

$$











000
FXUS64 KLZK 010544 AAA
AFDLZK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
1245 AM CDT WED JUL 01 2015

.AVIATION...

OVERALL VFR FLIGHT CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
MAINLY MID TO HIGH CLOUDS WILL STREAM OVER THE REGION. OVERNIGHT
CHANCE OF CONVECTION WILL BE LOW AND WILL NOT INCLUDE IN TAFS. WINDS
WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE...OR S TO SW AT 5 TO 10 MPH. ON WEDNESDAY
ADDITIONAL VFR CLOUDS WILL BE SEEN...WITH ISOLATED CONVECTION IN THE
AFTERNOON. USED VCSH OR VCTS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. WINDS ON WEDNESDAY
WILL BE SE TO SW AT 5 TO 15 MPH WITH SOME GUSTS TO 20 MPH.
(59)

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 232 PM CDT TUE JUN 30 2015/

SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT
OVERALL AN UNSETTLED WEATHER PATTERN IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD
THANKS TO A PERSISTENT NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. SAID FLOW IS EXPECTED
TO PERSIST THROUGH THE PERIOD AS DOMINANT WESTERN CONUS...BRIEFLY
KNOCKED DOWN...STARTS TO GET ESTABLISHED AGAIN. MODELS ARE IN CLOSE
ENOUGH AGREEMENT THAT A BLEND OF SOLUTIONS SEEMS JUSTIFIED AT THIS
TIME.

HAZY CONDITIONS PREVAIL ACROSS THE STATE AT THIS TIME BUT CLOUDS ARE
NOT TO BLAME. RATHER THE CULPRIT IS SMOKE...MOVING THROUGH THE
NORTHWEST FLOW FROM WILDFIRES RAGING ACROSS THE CANADIAN PRAIRIE
PROVENCE. BELIEVE MOST OF THE OVERNIGHT HOURS WILL BE DRY AS AREA IS
BETWEEN SYSTEMS DROPPING DOWN THROUGH THE AFOREMENTIONED NORTHWEST
FLOW WHICH WILL LOOKS TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE PERIOD.

NEXT UPPER FEATURE EXPECTED TO ARRIVE DURING THE DAY ON WEDNESDAY.
WITH PLENTY OF MOISTURE AROUND AND THE REMNANT OF AN OLD BOUNDARY
LURKING ABOUT...SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS APPEAR TO BE A
PRETTY GOOD BET...ESPECIALLY OVER THE NORTH AND NORTHEAST PARTS OF
THE STATE. THIS SYSTEM WILL BE FOLLOWED BY A SUCCESSION OF UPPER
IMPULSES TO KEEP AT LEAST SCATTERED PRECIPITATION IN THE FORECAST
THROUGH THE PERIOD.

OF COURSE IN THIS TYPE OF PATTERN...TIMING OF THESE IMPULSES IS
PROBLEMATIC AT BEST BUT THERE WILL BE A DEFINITE DIURNAL SLANT TO
THE PRECIPITATION AND THE NORTH SEEMINGLY IN THE BULLSEYES. WITH A
JUICY AIRMASS IN PLACE...ANY TRAINING OF CONVECTIVE CELLS COULD LEAD
TO FLOODING CONCERNS TEMPS FOR THE MOST PART WILL REMAIN CLOSE TO
SEASONAL NORMS.

LONG TERM...SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY...
LONG TERM BEGINS WITH NW FLOW IN PLACE ACROSS MUCH OF ARKANSAS WITH
A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE TO THE WEST. THROUGH THE WEEKEND...THE
RIDGE IN THE WESTERN UNITED STATES WILL EXPAND EASTWARD ACROSS
ARKANSAS AND BRING A RETURN OF ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR THE
BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK.

OF GREATER CONCERN WILL BE THE CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION FOR THE
HOLIDAY WEEKEND. MODELS ARE CURRENTLY IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH A
STALLED FRONT TO THE NORTH OF ARKANSAS AND CONTINUED ROUNDS OF
PRECIPITATION THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON. DRIER AIR BUILDS IN ON
MONDAY AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS ANCHORED ACROSS THE SE
UNITED STATES.

&&

.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&

$$











000
FXUS64 KLZK 010544 AAA
AFDLZK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
1245 AM CDT WED JUL 01 2015

.AVIATION...

OVERALL VFR FLIGHT CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
MAINLY MID TO HIGH CLOUDS WILL STREAM OVER THE REGION. OVERNIGHT
CHANCE OF CONVECTION WILL BE LOW AND WILL NOT INCLUDE IN TAFS. WINDS
WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE...OR S TO SW AT 5 TO 10 MPH. ON WEDNESDAY
ADDITIONAL VFR CLOUDS WILL BE SEEN...WITH ISOLATED CONVECTION IN THE
AFTERNOON. USED VCSH OR VCTS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. WINDS ON WEDNESDAY
WILL BE SE TO SW AT 5 TO 15 MPH WITH SOME GUSTS TO 20 MPH.
(59)

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 232 PM CDT TUE JUN 30 2015/

SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT
OVERALL AN UNSETTLED WEATHER PATTERN IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD
THANKS TO A PERSISTENT NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. SAID FLOW IS EXPECTED
TO PERSIST THROUGH THE PERIOD AS DOMINANT WESTERN CONUS...BRIEFLY
KNOCKED DOWN...STARTS TO GET ESTABLISHED AGAIN. MODELS ARE IN CLOSE
ENOUGH AGREEMENT THAT A BLEND OF SOLUTIONS SEEMS JUSTIFIED AT THIS
TIME.

HAZY CONDITIONS PREVAIL ACROSS THE STATE AT THIS TIME BUT CLOUDS ARE
NOT TO BLAME. RATHER THE CULPRIT IS SMOKE...MOVING THROUGH THE
NORTHWEST FLOW FROM WILDFIRES RAGING ACROSS THE CANADIAN PRAIRIE
PROVENCE. BELIEVE MOST OF THE OVERNIGHT HOURS WILL BE DRY AS AREA IS
BETWEEN SYSTEMS DROPPING DOWN THROUGH THE AFOREMENTIONED NORTHWEST
FLOW WHICH WILL LOOKS TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE PERIOD.

NEXT UPPER FEATURE EXPECTED TO ARRIVE DURING THE DAY ON WEDNESDAY.
WITH PLENTY OF MOISTURE AROUND AND THE REMNANT OF AN OLD BOUNDARY
LURKING ABOUT...SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS APPEAR TO BE A
PRETTY GOOD BET...ESPECIALLY OVER THE NORTH AND NORTHEAST PARTS OF
THE STATE. THIS SYSTEM WILL BE FOLLOWED BY A SUCCESSION OF UPPER
IMPULSES TO KEEP AT LEAST SCATTERED PRECIPITATION IN THE FORECAST
THROUGH THE PERIOD.

OF COURSE IN THIS TYPE OF PATTERN...TIMING OF THESE IMPULSES IS
PROBLEMATIC AT BEST BUT THERE WILL BE A DEFINITE DIURNAL SLANT TO
THE PRECIPITATION AND THE NORTH SEEMINGLY IN THE BULLSEYES. WITH A
JUICY AIRMASS IN PLACE...ANY TRAINING OF CONVECTIVE CELLS COULD LEAD
TO FLOODING CONCERNS TEMPS FOR THE MOST PART WILL REMAIN CLOSE TO
SEASONAL NORMS.

LONG TERM...SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY...
LONG TERM BEGINS WITH NW FLOW IN PLACE ACROSS MUCH OF ARKANSAS WITH
A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE TO THE WEST. THROUGH THE WEEKEND...THE
RIDGE IN THE WESTERN UNITED STATES WILL EXPAND EASTWARD ACROSS
ARKANSAS AND BRING A RETURN OF ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR THE
BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK.

OF GREATER CONCERN WILL BE THE CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION FOR THE
HOLIDAY WEEKEND. MODELS ARE CURRENTLY IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH A
STALLED FRONT TO THE NORTH OF ARKANSAS AND CONTINUED ROUNDS OF
PRECIPITATION THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON. DRIER AIR BUILDS IN ON
MONDAY AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS ANCHORED ACROSS THE SE
UNITED STATES.

&&

.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&

$$











000
FXUS64 KLZK 302335 AAA
AFDLZK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
635 PM CDT TUE JUN 30 2015

.DISCUSSION...

UPDATED FOR THE 00Z AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

&&

.AVIATION...

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. THE MAIN
FORECAST CONCERN WITH THE 00Z TAF PACKAGE IS HOW CLOSE
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL GET TO NORTHERN SITES TOMORROW
AFTERNOON. ADDED IN VCSH TO KBPK AS IT APPEARS THAT MCS ACTIVITY
MOVING SOUTHEAST FROM MISSOURI INTO NERN ARKANSAS MAY GET CLOSE BY
18Z-20Z TIME FRAME WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. ELSEWHERE DRY CONDITIONS
WITH VFR FLIGHT CATEGORIES SHOULD PERSIST THROUGH THE 00Z PERIOD.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 232 PM CDT TUE JUN 30 2015/

SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT
OVERALL AN UNSETTLED WEATHER PATTERN IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD
THANKS TO A PERSISTENT NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. SAID FLOW IS EXPECTED
TO PERSIST THROUGH THE PERIOD AS DOMINANT WESTERN CONUS...BRIEFLY
KNOCKED DOWN...STARTS TO GET ESTABLISHED AGAIN. MODELS ARE IN CLOSE
ENOUGH AGREEMENT THAT A BLEND OF SOLUTIONS SEEMS JUSTIFIED AT THIS
TIME.

HAZY CONDITIONS PREVAIL ACROSS THE STATE AT THIS TIME BUT CLOUDS ARE
NOT TO BLAME. RATHER THE CULPRIT IS SMOKE...MOVING THROUGH THE
NORTHWEST FLOW FROM WILDFIRES RAGING ACROSS THE CANADIAN PRAIRIE
PROVENCE. BELIEVE MOST OF THE OVERNIGHT HOURS WILL BE DRY AS AREA IS
BETWEEN SYSTEMS DROPPING DOWN THROUGH THE AFOREMENTIONED NORTHWEST
FLOW WHICH WILL LOOKS TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE PERIOD.

NEXT UPPER FEATURE EXPECTED TO ARRIVE DURING THE DAY ON WEDNESDAY.
WITH PLENTY OF MOISTURE AROUND AND THE REMNANT OF AN OLD BOUNDARY
LURKING ABOUT...SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS APPEAR TO BE A
PRETTY GOOD BET...ESPECIALLY OVER THE NORTH AND NORTHEAST PARTS OF
THE STATE. THIS SYSTEM WILL BE FOLLOWED BY A SUCCESSION OF UPPER
IMPULSES TO KEEP AT LEAST SCATTERED PRECIPITATION IN THE FORECAST
THROUGH THE PERIOD.

OF COURSE IN THIS TYPE OF PATTERN...TIMING OF THESE IMPULSES IS
PROBLEMATIC AT BEST BUT THERE WILL BE A DEFINITE DIURNAL SLANT TO
THE PRECIPITATION AND THE NORTH SEEMINGLY IN THE BULLSEYES. WITH A
JUICY AIRMASS IN PLACE...ANY TRAINING OF CONVECTIVE CELLS COULD LEAD
TO FLOODING CONCERNS TEMPS FOR THE MOST PART WILL REMAIN CLOSE TO
SEASONAL NORMS.

LONG TERM...SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY...
LONG TERM BEGINS WITH NW FLOW IN PLACE ACROSS MUCH OF ARKANSAS WITH
A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE TO THE WEST. THROUGH THE WEEKEND...THE
RIDGE IN THE WESTERN UNITED STATES WILL EXPAND EASTWARD ACROSS
ARKANSAS AND BRING A RETURN OF ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR THE
BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK.

OF GREATER CONCERN WILL BE THE CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION FOR THE
HOLIDAY WEEKEND. MODELS ARE CURRENTLY IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH A
STALLED FRONT TO THE NORTH OF ARKANSAS AND CONTINUED ROUNDS OF
PRECIPITATION THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON. DRIER AIR BUILDS IN ON
MONDAY AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS ANCHORED ACROSS THE SE
UNITED STATES.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BATESVILLE AR     91  73  88  74 /  10  20  40  50
CAMDEN AR         91  73  92  76 /  30  20  20  20
HARRISON AR       89  71  87  73 /  10  20  40  40
HOT SPRINGS AR    92  74  91  76 /  20  20  20  20
LITTLE ROCK   AR  93  75  92  76 /  20  20  30  30
MONTICELLO AR     90  73  91  76 /  30  20  20  20
MOUNT IDA AR      91  73  90  76 /  20  20  20  20
MOUNTAIN HOME AR  90  70  86  72 /  10  20  40  50
NEWPORT AR        91  73  88  75 /  20  30  40  50
PINE BLUFF AR     91  73  91  76 /  30  20  20  20
RUSSELLVILLE AR   93  73  91  75 /  10  20  30  30
SEARCY AR         92  73  90  75 /  20  20  40  40
STUTTGART AR      92  74  90  76 /  20  20  30  30
&&

.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&

$$


AVIATION...64







000
FXUS64 KLZK 302335 AAA
AFDLZK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
635 PM CDT TUE JUN 30 2015

.DISCUSSION...

UPDATED FOR THE 00Z AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

&&

.AVIATION...

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. THE MAIN
FORECAST CONCERN WITH THE 00Z TAF PACKAGE IS HOW CLOSE
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL GET TO NORTHERN SITES TOMORROW
AFTERNOON. ADDED IN VCSH TO KBPK AS IT APPEARS THAT MCS ACTIVITY
MOVING SOUTHEAST FROM MISSOURI INTO NERN ARKANSAS MAY GET CLOSE BY
18Z-20Z TIME FRAME WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. ELSEWHERE DRY CONDITIONS
WITH VFR FLIGHT CATEGORIES SHOULD PERSIST THROUGH THE 00Z PERIOD.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 232 PM CDT TUE JUN 30 2015/

SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT
OVERALL AN UNSETTLED WEATHER PATTERN IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD
THANKS TO A PERSISTENT NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. SAID FLOW IS EXPECTED
TO PERSIST THROUGH THE PERIOD AS DOMINANT WESTERN CONUS...BRIEFLY
KNOCKED DOWN...STARTS TO GET ESTABLISHED AGAIN. MODELS ARE IN CLOSE
ENOUGH AGREEMENT THAT A BLEND OF SOLUTIONS SEEMS JUSTIFIED AT THIS
TIME.

HAZY CONDITIONS PREVAIL ACROSS THE STATE AT THIS TIME BUT CLOUDS ARE
NOT TO BLAME. RATHER THE CULPRIT IS SMOKE...MOVING THROUGH THE
NORTHWEST FLOW FROM WILDFIRES RAGING ACROSS THE CANADIAN PRAIRIE
PROVENCE. BELIEVE MOST OF THE OVERNIGHT HOURS WILL BE DRY AS AREA IS
BETWEEN SYSTEMS DROPPING DOWN THROUGH THE AFOREMENTIONED NORTHWEST
FLOW WHICH WILL LOOKS TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE PERIOD.

NEXT UPPER FEATURE EXPECTED TO ARRIVE DURING THE DAY ON WEDNESDAY.
WITH PLENTY OF MOISTURE AROUND AND THE REMNANT OF AN OLD BOUNDARY
LURKING ABOUT...SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS APPEAR TO BE A
PRETTY GOOD BET...ESPECIALLY OVER THE NORTH AND NORTHEAST PARTS OF
THE STATE. THIS SYSTEM WILL BE FOLLOWED BY A SUCCESSION OF UPPER
IMPULSES TO KEEP AT LEAST SCATTERED PRECIPITATION IN THE FORECAST
THROUGH THE PERIOD.

OF COURSE IN THIS TYPE OF PATTERN...TIMING OF THESE IMPULSES IS
PROBLEMATIC AT BEST BUT THERE WILL BE A DEFINITE DIURNAL SLANT TO
THE PRECIPITATION AND THE NORTH SEEMINGLY IN THE BULLSEYES. WITH A
JUICY AIRMASS IN PLACE...ANY TRAINING OF CONVECTIVE CELLS COULD LEAD
TO FLOODING CONCERNS TEMPS FOR THE MOST PART WILL REMAIN CLOSE TO
SEASONAL NORMS.

LONG TERM...SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY...
LONG TERM BEGINS WITH NW FLOW IN PLACE ACROSS MUCH OF ARKANSAS WITH
A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE TO THE WEST. THROUGH THE WEEKEND...THE
RIDGE IN THE WESTERN UNITED STATES WILL EXPAND EASTWARD ACROSS
ARKANSAS AND BRING A RETURN OF ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR THE
BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK.

OF GREATER CONCERN WILL BE THE CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION FOR THE
HOLIDAY WEEKEND. MODELS ARE CURRENTLY IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH A
STALLED FRONT TO THE NORTH OF ARKANSAS AND CONTINUED ROUNDS OF
PRECIPITATION THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON. DRIER AIR BUILDS IN ON
MONDAY AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS ANCHORED ACROSS THE SE
UNITED STATES.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BATESVILLE AR     91  73  88  74 /  10  20  40  50
CAMDEN AR         91  73  92  76 /  30  20  20  20
HARRISON AR       89  71  87  73 /  10  20  40  40
HOT SPRINGS AR    92  74  91  76 /  20  20  20  20
LITTLE ROCK   AR  93  75  92  76 /  20  20  30  30
MONTICELLO AR     90  73  91  76 /  30  20  20  20
MOUNT IDA AR      91  73  90  76 /  20  20  20  20
MOUNTAIN HOME AR  90  70  86  72 /  10  20  40  50
NEWPORT AR        91  73  88  75 /  20  30  40  50
PINE BLUFF AR     91  73  91  76 /  30  20  20  20
RUSSELLVILLE AR   93  73  91  75 /  10  20  30  30
SEARCY AR         92  73  90  75 /  20  20  40  40
STUTTGART AR      92  74  90  76 /  20  20  30  30
&&

.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&

$$


AVIATION...64








000
FXUS64 KLZK 301933
AFDLZK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
232 PM CDT TUE JUN 30 2015

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT
OVERALL AN UNSETTLED WEATHER PATTERN IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD
THANKS TO A PERSISTENT NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. SAID FLOW IS EXPECTED
TO PERSIST THROUGH THE PERIOD AS DOMINANT WESTERN CONUS...BRIEFLY
KNOCKED DOWN...STARTS TO GET ESTABLISHED AGAIN. MODELS ARE IN CLOSE
ENOUGH AGREEMENT THAT A BLEND OF SOLUTIONS SEEMS JUSTIFIED AT THIS
TIME.

HAZY CONDITIONS PREVAIL ACROSS THE STATE AT THIS TIME BUT CLOUDS ARE
NOT TO BLAME. RATHER THE CULPRIT IS SMOKE...MOVING THROUGH THE
NORTHWEST FLOW FROM WILDFIRES RAGING ACROSS THE CANADIAN PRAIRIE
PROVENCE. BELIEVE MOST OF THE OVERNIGHT HOURS WILL BE DRY AS AREA IS
BETWEEN SYSTEMS DROPPING DOWN THROUGH THE AFOREMENTIONED NORTHWEST
FLOW WHICH WILL LOOKS TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE PERIOD.

NEXT UPPER FEATURE EXPECTED TO ARRIVE DURING THE DAY ON WEDNESDAY.
WITH PLENTY OF MOISTURE AROUND AND THE REMNANT OF AN OLD BOUNDARY
LURKING ABOUT...SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS APPEAR TO BE A
PRETTY GOOD BET...ESPECIALLY OVER THE NORTH AND NORTHEAST PARTS OF
THE STATE. THIS SYSTEM WILL BE FOLLOWED BY A SUCCESSION OF UPPER
IMPULSES TO KEEP AT LEAST SCATTERED PRECIPITATION IN THE FORECAST
THROUGH THE PERIOD.

OF COURSE IN THIS TYPE OF PATTERN...TIMING OF THESE IMPULSES IS
PROBLEMATIC AT BEST BUT THERE WILL BE A DEFINITE DIURNAL SLANT TO
THE PRECIPITATION AND THE NORTH SEEMINGLY IN THE BULLSEYES. WITH A
JUICY AIRMASS IN PLACE...ANY TRAINING OF CONVECTIVE CELLS COULD LEAD
TO FLOODING CONCERNS TEMPS FOR THE MOST PART WILL REMAIN CLOSE TO
SEASONAL NORMS.
&&

.LONG TERM...SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY...
LONG TERM BEGINS WITH NW FLOW IN PLACE ACROSS MUCH OF ARKANSAS WITH
A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE TO THE WEST. THROUGH THE WEEKEND...THE
RIDGE IN THE WESTERN UNITED STATES WILL EXPAND EASTWARD ACROSS
ARKANSAS AND BRING A RETURN OF ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR THE
BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK.

OF GREATER CONCERN WILL BE THE CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION FOR THE
HOLIDAY WEEKEND. MODELS ARE CURRENTLY IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH A
STALLED FRONT TO THE NORTH OF ARKANSAS AND CONTINUED ROUNDS OF
PRECIPITATION THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON. DRIER AIR BUILDS IN ON
MONDAY AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS ANCHORED ACROSS THE SE
UNITED STATES.
&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BATESVILLE AR     73  88  74  87 /  20  40  50  60
CAMDEN AR         73  92  76  92 /  20  20  20  20
HARRISON AR       71  87  73  86 /  20  40  40  40
HOT SPRINGS AR    74  91  76  90 /  20  20  20  30
LITTLE ROCK   AR  75  92  76  91 /  20  30  30  40
MONTICELLO AR     73  91  76  92 /  20  20  20  30
MOUNT IDA AR      73  90  76  89 /  20  20  20  30
MOUNTAIN HOME AR  70  86  72  86 /  20  40  50  50
NEWPORT AR        73  88  75  87 /  30  40  50  60
PINE BLUFF AR     73  91  76  91 /  20  20  20  30
RUSSELLVILLE AR   73  91  75  90 /  20  30  30  40
SEARCY AR         73  90  75  89 /  20  40  40  50
STUTTGART AR      74  90  76  89 /  20  30  30  40
&&

.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...56 / LONG TERM...65









000
FXUS64 KLZK 301933
AFDLZK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
232 PM CDT TUE JUN 30 2015

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT
OVERALL AN UNSETTLED WEATHER PATTERN IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD
THANKS TO A PERSISTENT NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. SAID FLOW IS EXPECTED
TO PERSIST THROUGH THE PERIOD AS DOMINANT WESTERN CONUS...BRIEFLY
KNOCKED DOWN...STARTS TO GET ESTABLISHED AGAIN. MODELS ARE IN CLOSE
ENOUGH AGREEMENT THAT A BLEND OF SOLUTIONS SEEMS JUSTIFIED AT THIS
TIME.

HAZY CONDITIONS PREVAIL ACROSS THE STATE AT THIS TIME BUT CLOUDS ARE
NOT TO BLAME. RATHER THE CULPRIT IS SMOKE...MOVING THROUGH THE
NORTHWEST FLOW FROM WILDFIRES RAGING ACROSS THE CANADIAN PRAIRIE
PROVENCE. BELIEVE MOST OF THE OVERNIGHT HOURS WILL BE DRY AS AREA IS
BETWEEN SYSTEMS DROPPING DOWN THROUGH THE AFOREMENTIONED NORTHWEST
FLOW WHICH WILL LOOKS TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE PERIOD.

NEXT UPPER FEATURE EXPECTED TO ARRIVE DURING THE DAY ON WEDNESDAY.
WITH PLENTY OF MOISTURE AROUND AND THE REMNANT OF AN OLD BOUNDARY
LURKING ABOUT...SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS APPEAR TO BE A
PRETTY GOOD BET...ESPECIALLY OVER THE NORTH AND NORTHEAST PARTS OF
THE STATE. THIS SYSTEM WILL BE FOLLOWED BY A SUCCESSION OF UPPER
IMPULSES TO KEEP AT LEAST SCATTERED PRECIPITATION IN THE FORECAST
THROUGH THE PERIOD.

OF COURSE IN THIS TYPE OF PATTERN...TIMING OF THESE IMPULSES IS
PROBLEMATIC AT BEST BUT THERE WILL BE A DEFINITE DIURNAL SLANT TO
THE PRECIPITATION AND THE NORTH SEEMINGLY IN THE BULLSEYES. WITH A
JUICY AIRMASS IN PLACE...ANY TRAINING OF CONVECTIVE CELLS COULD LEAD
TO FLOODING CONCERNS TEMPS FOR THE MOST PART WILL REMAIN CLOSE TO
SEASONAL NORMS.
&&

.LONG TERM...SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY...
LONG TERM BEGINS WITH NW FLOW IN PLACE ACROSS MUCH OF ARKANSAS WITH
A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE TO THE WEST. THROUGH THE WEEKEND...THE
RIDGE IN THE WESTERN UNITED STATES WILL EXPAND EASTWARD ACROSS
ARKANSAS AND BRING A RETURN OF ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR THE
BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK.

OF GREATER CONCERN WILL BE THE CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION FOR THE
HOLIDAY WEEKEND. MODELS ARE CURRENTLY IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH A
STALLED FRONT TO THE NORTH OF ARKANSAS AND CONTINUED ROUNDS OF
PRECIPITATION THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON. DRIER AIR BUILDS IN ON
MONDAY AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS ANCHORED ACROSS THE SE
UNITED STATES.
&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BATESVILLE AR     73  88  74  87 /  20  40  50  60
CAMDEN AR         73  92  76  92 /  20  20  20  20
HARRISON AR       71  87  73  86 /  20  40  40  40
HOT SPRINGS AR    74  91  76  90 /  20  20  20  30
LITTLE ROCK   AR  75  92  76  91 /  20  30  30  40
MONTICELLO AR     73  91  76  92 /  20  20  20  30
MOUNT IDA AR      73  90  76  89 /  20  20  20  30
MOUNTAIN HOME AR  70  86  72  86 /  20  40  50  50
NEWPORT AR        73  88  75  87 /  30  40  50  60
PINE BLUFF AR     73  91  76  91 /  20  20  20  30
RUSSELLVILLE AR   73  91  75  90 /  20  30  30  40
SEARCY AR         73  90  75  89 /  20  40  40  50
STUTTGART AR      74  90  76  89 /  20  30  30  40
&&

.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...56 / LONG TERM...65








000
FXUS64 KLZK 301831
AFDLZK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
131 PM CDT TUE JUN 30 2015

.AVIATION...

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST AT ALL TAF SITES THROUGH THE TAF
PERIOD. THIS AFTERNOON...THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL WILL EXIST ACROSS
MUCH OF THE STATE TODAY...HOWEVER BEST CHANCES WILL BE LIMITED TO
KLLQ AND KPBF. THE POTENTIAL FOR PRECIPITATION OVERNIGHT WILL
REMAIN TO THE NE OF KHRO AND KBPK. AT THIS POINT...DID NOT INCLUDE
WIND SHEAR IN THE TAFS WEDNESDAY MORNING. STILL APPEARS WIND SHEAR
VALUES WILL REMAIN LOW ENOUGH TO NOT WARRANT MENTIONING.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 634 AM CDT TUE JUN 30 2015/

AVIATION...
SHOWERS CONTINUE IN CENTRAL SECTIONS THIS MORNING WITH
THUNDERSTORMS IN THE SOUTHEAST. EXPECT THE PRECIPITATION TO
DIMINISH MID MORNING...THEN REDEVELOPMENT IN THE SOUTH THIS
AFTERNOON. THE NEXT SYSTEM WILL MOVE THROUGH MISSOURI TONIGHT AND
NORTH ARKANSAS COULD SEE SOME SHOWERS BY LATE IN THE PERIOD.
VFR AND MVFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 410 AM CDT TUE JUN 30 2015/

SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT

WEAK FNTL BNDRY WAS STALLED OUT ACRS CNTRL AR EARLY THIS MRNG.
SPOTTY CONVECTION HAS BEEN ONGOING OVERNIGHT ACRS PARTS OF ERN AND
SERN AR. ACTIVITY APPEARS TO BE INFLUENCED BY AN UPR IMPULSE
DROPPING SEWD THRU THE AREA. SOME OF THE RAPID UPDATE MODEL DATA
SUGGEST THAT THIS CONVECTION WL CONT TO WORK SEWD THRU THE MRNG HRS
AND WL ADJUST POPS ACCORDINGLY PRIOR TO FCST ISSUANCE.

THE UNSETTLED WX PATTERN WL CONT ACRS THE REGION THRU THE PD. A
PERSISTENT NWLY FLOW ALOFT WL CONT TO BRING A SERIES OF UPR STORM
SYS/S SEWD. THESE FEATURES WL INTERACT WITH THE LINGERING SFC BNDRY
AND ABUNDANT MOISTURE TO PRODUCE SCTD SHRA/TSRA.

TIMING OF EACH UPR FEATURE WL RMN PROBLEMATIC REGARDING CONVECTIVE
TRENDS...BUT THE HIGHEST RAIN CHCS WL CONT TO BE ACRS THE NERN HALF
OF THE FA THE NEXT FEW DAYS. ANOTHER CONCERN IN THE COMING DAYS WL
BE THE POTENTIAL FOR LOCALIZED HVY RAINFALL WHERE STORMS AFFECT
REPEATED LOCATIONS. TEMPS FOR THE MOST PART WL RMN CLOSE TO SEASONAL
NORMS.

LONG TERM...SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY

HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WILL BE OVER THE FOUR CORNERS AREA TO BEGIN THE
LONG TERM PERIOD. NORTHWEST FLOW WILL BE OVER THE PLAINS
SATURDAY...BUT AN UPPER HIGH WILL BUILD OVER THE GULF COAST AND
FLATTEN THE FLOW OVER ARKANSAS SUNDAY AND MONDAY. ALSO...THE HIGH
OVER THE WEST WILL BUILD EASTWARD SUNDAY AND MONDAY.

RAIN CHANCES WILL CONTINUE SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. EXPECT AN MCS TO
MOVE THROUGH THE AREA BOTH SATURDAY MORNING AND SUNDAY MORNING WITH
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. SATURDAY MORNING STORMS WILL BE OVER MUCH
OF THE STATE. THE FOCUS SUNDAY MORNING WILL BE IN THE NORTH...AS
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BEGIN STRENGTHENING OVER SOUTH ARKANSAS. MONDAY
SHOULD BE A DRY DAY AS THE HIGH STRENGTHENS AND DRIER AIR MOVES INTO
THE AREA. TEMPERATURES WILL BE WARMING THROUGH THE PERIOD AND WILL
BE BACK TO NORMAL MONDAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BATESVILLE AR     91  73  88  75 /  10  20  40  60
CAMDEN AR         91  73  93  74 /  30  20  20  20
HARRISON AR       89  71  86  72 /  10  20  40  50
HOT SPRINGS AR    92  74  92  75 /  20  20  20  30
LITTLE ROCK   AR  93  74  92  75 /  20  20  30  30
MONTICELLO AR     90  73  92  75 /  30  20  20  30
MOUNT IDA AR      91  73  91  74 /  20  20  20  30
MOUNTAIN HOME AR  90  70  86  72 /  10  20  50  60
NEWPORT AR        91  73  88  75 /  20  20  50  50
PINE BLUFF AR     91  73  91  75 /  30  20  30  30
RUSSELLVILLE AR   93  73  92  74 /  10  20  30  40
SEARCY AR         92  73  90  74 /  20  20  40  40
STUTTGART AR      92  73  91  75 /  20  20  40  40
&&

.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&

$$


AVIATION...65






000
FXUS64 KLZK 301831
AFDLZK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
131 PM CDT TUE JUN 30 2015

.AVIATION...

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST AT ALL TAF SITES THROUGH THE TAF
PERIOD. THIS AFTERNOON...THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL WILL EXIST ACROSS
MUCH OF THE STATE TODAY...HOWEVER BEST CHANCES WILL BE LIMITED TO
KLLQ AND KPBF. THE POTENTIAL FOR PRECIPITATION OVERNIGHT WILL
REMAIN TO THE NE OF KHRO AND KBPK. AT THIS POINT...DID NOT INCLUDE
WIND SHEAR IN THE TAFS WEDNESDAY MORNING. STILL APPEARS WIND SHEAR
VALUES WILL REMAIN LOW ENOUGH TO NOT WARRANT MENTIONING.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 634 AM CDT TUE JUN 30 2015/

AVIATION...
SHOWERS CONTINUE IN CENTRAL SECTIONS THIS MORNING WITH
THUNDERSTORMS IN THE SOUTHEAST. EXPECT THE PRECIPITATION TO
DIMINISH MID MORNING...THEN REDEVELOPMENT IN THE SOUTH THIS
AFTERNOON. THE NEXT SYSTEM WILL MOVE THROUGH MISSOURI TONIGHT AND
NORTH ARKANSAS COULD SEE SOME SHOWERS BY LATE IN THE PERIOD.
VFR AND MVFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 410 AM CDT TUE JUN 30 2015/

SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT

WEAK FNTL BNDRY WAS STALLED OUT ACRS CNTRL AR EARLY THIS MRNG.
SPOTTY CONVECTION HAS BEEN ONGOING OVERNIGHT ACRS PARTS OF ERN AND
SERN AR. ACTIVITY APPEARS TO BE INFLUENCED BY AN UPR IMPULSE
DROPPING SEWD THRU THE AREA. SOME OF THE RAPID UPDATE MODEL DATA
SUGGEST THAT THIS CONVECTION WL CONT TO WORK SEWD THRU THE MRNG HRS
AND WL ADJUST POPS ACCORDINGLY PRIOR TO FCST ISSUANCE.

THE UNSETTLED WX PATTERN WL CONT ACRS THE REGION THRU THE PD. A
PERSISTENT NWLY FLOW ALOFT WL CONT TO BRING A SERIES OF UPR STORM
SYS/S SEWD. THESE FEATURES WL INTERACT WITH THE LINGERING SFC BNDRY
AND ABUNDANT MOISTURE TO PRODUCE SCTD SHRA/TSRA.

TIMING OF EACH UPR FEATURE WL RMN PROBLEMATIC REGARDING CONVECTIVE
TRENDS...BUT THE HIGHEST RAIN CHCS WL CONT TO BE ACRS THE NERN HALF
OF THE FA THE NEXT FEW DAYS. ANOTHER CONCERN IN THE COMING DAYS WL
BE THE POTENTIAL FOR LOCALIZED HVY RAINFALL WHERE STORMS AFFECT
REPEATED LOCATIONS. TEMPS FOR THE MOST PART WL RMN CLOSE TO SEASONAL
NORMS.

LONG TERM...SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY

HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WILL BE OVER THE FOUR CORNERS AREA TO BEGIN THE
LONG TERM PERIOD. NORTHWEST FLOW WILL BE OVER THE PLAINS
SATURDAY...BUT AN UPPER HIGH WILL BUILD OVER THE GULF COAST AND
FLATTEN THE FLOW OVER ARKANSAS SUNDAY AND MONDAY. ALSO...THE HIGH
OVER THE WEST WILL BUILD EASTWARD SUNDAY AND MONDAY.

RAIN CHANCES WILL CONTINUE SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. EXPECT AN MCS TO
MOVE THROUGH THE AREA BOTH SATURDAY MORNING AND SUNDAY MORNING WITH
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. SATURDAY MORNING STORMS WILL BE OVER MUCH
OF THE STATE. THE FOCUS SUNDAY MORNING WILL BE IN THE NORTH...AS
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BEGIN STRENGTHENING OVER SOUTH ARKANSAS. MONDAY
SHOULD BE A DRY DAY AS THE HIGH STRENGTHENS AND DRIER AIR MOVES INTO
THE AREA. TEMPERATURES WILL BE WARMING THROUGH THE PERIOD AND WILL
BE BACK TO NORMAL MONDAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BATESVILLE AR     91  73  88  75 /  10  20  40  60
CAMDEN AR         91  73  93  74 /  30  20  20  20
HARRISON AR       89  71  86  72 /  10  20  40  50
HOT SPRINGS AR    92  74  92  75 /  20  20  20  30
LITTLE ROCK   AR  93  74  92  75 /  20  20  30  30
MONTICELLO AR     90  73  92  75 /  30  20  20  30
MOUNT IDA AR      91  73  91  74 /  20  20  20  30
MOUNTAIN HOME AR  90  70  86  72 /  10  20  50  60
NEWPORT AR        91  73  88  75 /  20  20  50  50
PINE BLUFF AR     91  73  91  75 /  30  20  30  30
RUSSELLVILLE AR   93  73  92  74 /  10  20  30  40
SEARCY AR         92  73  90  74 /  20  20  40  40
STUTTGART AR      92  73  91  75 /  20  20  40  40
&&

.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&

$$


AVIATION...65





000
FXUS64 KLZK 301134
AFDLZK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
634 AM CDT TUE JUN 30 2015

.AVIATION...
SHOWERS CONTINUE IN CENTRAL SECTIONS THIS MORNING WITH
THUNDERSTORMS IN THE SOUTHEAST. EXPECT THE PRECIPITATION TO
DIMINISH MID MORNING...THEN REDEVELOPMENT IN THE SOUTH THIS
AFTERNOON. THE NEXT SYSTEM WILL MOVE THROUGH MISSOURI TONIGHT AND
NORTH ARKANSAS COULD SEE SOME SHOWERS BY LATE IN THE PERIOD.
VFR AND MVFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 410 AM CDT TUE JUN 30 2015/

SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT

WEAK FNTL BNDRY WAS STALLED OUT ACRS CNTRL AR EARLY THIS MRNG.
SPOTTY CONVECTION HAS BEEN ONGOING OVERNIGHT ACRS PARTS OF ERN AND
SERN AR. ACTIVITY APPEARS TO BE INFLUENCED BY AN UPR IMPULSE
DROPPING SEWD THRU THE AREA. SOME OF THE RAPID UPDATE MODEL DATA
SUGGEST THAT THIS CONVECTION WL CONT TO WORK SEWD THRU THE MRNG HRS
AND WL ADJUST POPS ACCORDINGLY PRIOR TO FCST ISSUANCE.

THE UNSETTLED WX PATTERN WL CONT ACRS THE REGION THRU THE PD. A
PERSISTENT NWLY FLOW ALOFT WL CONT TO BRING A SERIES OF UPR STORM
SYS/S SEWD. THESE FEATURES WL INTERACT WITH THE LINGERING SFC BNDRY
AND ABUNDANT MOISTURE TO PRODUCE SCTD SHRA/TSRA.

TIMING OF EACH UPR FEATURE WL RMN PROBLEMATIC REGARDING CONVECTIVE
TRENDS...BUT THE HIGHEST RAIN CHCS WL CONT TO BE ACRS THE NERN HALF
OF THE FA THE NEXT FEW DAYS. ANOTHER CONCERN IN THE COMING DAYS WL
BE THE POTENTIAL FOR LOCALIZED HVY RAINFALL WHERE STORMS AFFECT
REPEATED LOCATIONS. TEMPS FOR THE MOST PART WL RMN CLOSE TO SEASONAL
NORMS.

LONG TERM...SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY

HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WILL BE OVER THE FOUR CORNERS AREA TO BEGIN THE
LONG TERM PERIOD. NORTHWEST FLOW WILL BE OVER THE PLAINS
SATURDAY...BUT AN UPPER HIGH WILL BUILD OVER THE GULF COAST AND
FLATTEN THE FLOW OVER ARKANSAS SUNDAY AND MONDAY. ALSO...THE HIGH
OVER THE WEST WILL BUILD EASTWARD SUNDAY AND MONDAY.

RAIN CHANCES WILL CONTINUE SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. EXPECT AN MCS TO
MOVE THROUGH THE AREA BOTH SATURDAY MORNING AND SUNDAY MORNING WITH
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. SATURDAY MORNING STORMS WILL BE OVER MUCH
OF THE STATE. THE FOCUS SUNDAY MORNING WILL BE IN THE NORTH...AS
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BEGIN STRENGTHENING OVER SOUTH ARKANSAS. MONDAY
SHOULD BE A DRY DAY AS THE HIGH STRENGTHENS AND DRIER AIR MOVES INTO
THE AREA. TEMPERATURES WILL BE WARMING THROUGH THE PERIOD AND WILL
BE BACK TO NORMAL MONDAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BATESVILLE AR     91  73  88  75 /  10  20  40  60
CAMDEN AR         90  73  93  74 /  40  20  20  20
HARRISON AR       91  71  86  72 /  10  20  40  50
HOT SPRINGS AR    91  74  92  75 /  30  20  20  30
LITTLE ROCK   AR  93  74  92  75 /  20  20  30  30
MONTICELLO AR     89  73  92  75 /  40  20  20  30
MOUNT IDA AR      91  73  91  74 /  20  20  20  30
MOUNTAIN HOME AR  90  70  86  72 /  10  20  50  60
NEWPORT AR        91  73  88  75 /  20  20  50  50
PINE BLUFF AR     90  73  91  75 /  30  20  30  30
RUSSELLVILLE AR   92  73  92  74 /  20  20  30  40
SEARCY AR         92  73  90  74 /  20  20  40  40
STUTTGART AR      91  73  91  75 /  30  20  40  40
&&

.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&

$$


AVIATION...51





000
FXUS64 KLZK 301134
AFDLZK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
634 AM CDT TUE JUN 30 2015

.AVIATION...
SHOWERS CONTINUE IN CENTRAL SECTIONS THIS MORNING WITH
THUNDERSTORMS IN THE SOUTHEAST. EXPECT THE PRECIPITATION TO
DIMINISH MID MORNING...THEN REDEVELOPMENT IN THE SOUTH THIS
AFTERNOON. THE NEXT SYSTEM WILL MOVE THROUGH MISSOURI TONIGHT AND
NORTH ARKANSAS COULD SEE SOME SHOWERS BY LATE IN THE PERIOD.
VFR AND MVFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 410 AM CDT TUE JUN 30 2015/

SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT

WEAK FNTL BNDRY WAS STALLED OUT ACRS CNTRL AR EARLY THIS MRNG.
SPOTTY CONVECTION HAS BEEN ONGOING OVERNIGHT ACRS PARTS OF ERN AND
SERN AR. ACTIVITY APPEARS TO BE INFLUENCED BY AN UPR IMPULSE
DROPPING SEWD THRU THE AREA. SOME OF THE RAPID UPDATE MODEL DATA
SUGGEST THAT THIS CONVECTION WL CONT TO WORK SEWD THRU THE MRNG HRS
AND WL ADJUST POPS ACCORDINGLY PRIOR TO FCST ISSUANCE.

THE UNSETTLED WX PATTERN WL CONT ACRS THE REGION THRU THE PD. A
PERSISTENT NWLY FLOW ALOFT WL CONT TO BRING A SERIES OF UPR STORM
SYS/S SEWD. THESE FEATURES WL INTERACT WITH THE LINGERING SFC BNDRY
AND ABUNDANT MOISTURE TO PRODUCE SCTD SHRA/TSRA.

TIMING OF EACH UPR FEATURE WL RMN PROBLEMATIC REGARDING CONVECTIVE
TRENDS...BUT THE HIGHEST RAIN CHCS WL CONT TO BE ACRS THE NERN HALF
OF THE FA THE NEXT FEW DAYS. ANOTHER CONCERN IN THE COMING DAYS WL
BE THE POTENTIAL FOR LOCALIZED HVY RAINFALL WHERE STORMS AFFECT
REPEATED LOCATIONS. TEMPS FOR THE MOST PART WL RMN CLOSE TO SEASONAL
NORMS.

LONG TERM...SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY

HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WILL BE OVER THE FOUR CORNERS AREA TO BEGIN THE
LONG TERM PERIOD. NORTHWEST FLOW WILL BE OVER THE PLAINS
SATURDAY...BUT AN UPPER HIGH WILL BUILD OVER THE GULF COAST AND
FLATTEN THE FLOW OVER ARKANSAS SUNDAY AND MONDAY. ALSO...THE HIGH
OVER THE WEST WILL BUILD EASTWARD SUNDAY AND MONDAY.

RAIN CHANCES WILL CONTINUE SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. EXPECT AN MCS TO
MOVE THROUGH THE AREA BOTH SATURDAY MORNING AND SUNDAY MORNING WITH
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. SATURDAY MORNING STORMS WILL BE OVER MUCH
OF THE STATE. THE FOCUS SUNDAY MORNING WILL BE IN THE NORTH...AS
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BEGIN STRENGTHENING OVER SOUTH ARKANSAS. MONDAY
SHOULD BE A DRY DAY AS THE HIGH STRENGTHENS AND DRIER AIR MOVES INTO
THE AREA. TEMPERATURES WILL BE WARMING THROUGH THE PERIOD AND WILL
BE BACK TO NORMAL MONDAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BATESVILLE AR     91  73  88  75 /  10  20  40  60
CAMDEN AR         90  73  93  74 /  40  20  20  20
HARRISON AR       91  71  86  72 /  10  20  40  50
HOT SPRINGS AR    91  74  92  75 /  30  20  20  30
LITTLE ROCK   AR  93  74  92  75 /  20  20  30  30
MONTICELLO AR     89  73  92  75 /  40  20  20  30
MOUNT IDA AR      91  73  91  74 /  20  20  20  30
MOUNTAIN HOME AR  90  70  86  72 /  10  20  50  60
NEWPORT AR        91  73  88  75 /  20  20  50  50
PINE BLUFF AR     90  73  91  75 /  30  20  30  30
RUSSELLVILLE AR   92  73  92  74 /  20  20  30  40
SEARCY AR         92  73  90  74 /  20  20  40  40
STUTTGART AR      91  73  91  75 /  30  20  40  40
&&

.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&

$$


AVIATION...51






000
FXUS64 KLZK 301134
AFDLZK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
634 AM CDT TUE JUN 30 2015

.AVIATION...
SHOWERS CONTINUE IN CENTRAL SECTIONS THIS MORNING WITH
THUNDERSTORMS IN THE SOUTHEAST. EXPECT THE PRECIPITATION TO
DIMINISH MID MORNING...THEN REDEVELOPMENT IN THE SOUTH THIS
AFTERNOON. THE NEXT SYSTEM WILL MOVE THROUGH MISSOURI TONIGHT AND
NORTH ARKANSAS COULD SEE SOME SHOWERS BY LATE IN THE PERIOD.
VFR AND MVFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 410 AM CDT TUE JUN 30 2015/

SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT

WEAK FNTL BNDRY WAS STALLED OUT ACRS CNTRL AR EARLY THIS MRNG.
SPOTTY CONVECTION HAS BEEN ONGOING OVERNIGHT ACRS PARTS OF ERN AND
SERN AR. ACTIVITY APPEARS TO BE INFLUENCED BY AN UPR IMPULSE
DROPPING SEWD THRU THE AREA. SOME OF THE RAPID UPDATE MODEL DATA
SUGGEST THAT THIS CONVECTION WL CONT TO WORK SEWD THRU THE MRNG HRS
AND WL ADJUST POPS ACCORDINGLY PRIOR TO FCST ISSUANCE.

THE UNSETTLED WX PATTERN WL CONT ACRS THE REGION THRU THE PD. A
PERSISTENT NWLY FLOW ALOFT WL CONT TO BRING A SERIES OF UPR STORM
SYS/S SEWD. THESE FEATURES WL INTERACT WITH THE LINGERING SFC BNDRY
AND ABUNDANT MOISTURE TO PRODUCE SCTD SHRA/TSRA.

TIMING OF EACH UPR FEATURE WL RMN PROBLEMATIC REGARDING CONVECTIVE
TRENDS...BUT THE HIGHEST RAIN CHCS WL CONT TO BE ACRS THE NERN HALF
OF THE FA THE NEXT FEW DAYS. ANOTHER CONCERN IN THE COMING DAYS WL
BE THE POTENTIAL FOR LOCALIZED HVY RAINFALL WHERE STORMS AFFECT
REPEATED LOCATIONS. TEMPS FOR THE MOST PART WL RMN CLOSE TO SEASONAL
NORMS.

LONG TERM...SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY

HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WILL BE OVER THE FOUR CORNERS AREA TO BEGIN THE
LONG TERM PERIOD. NORTHWEST FLOW WILL BE OVER THE PLAINS
SATURDAY...BUT AN UPPER HIGH WILL BUILD OVER THE GULF COAST AND
FLATTEN THE FLOW OVER ARKANSAS SUNDAY AND MONDAY. ALSO...THE HIGH
OVER THE WEST WILL BUILD EASTWARD SUNDAY AND MONDAY.

RAIN CHANCES WILL CONTINUE SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. EXPECT AN MCS TO
MOVE THROUGH THE AREA BOTH SATURDAY MORNING AND SUNDAY MORNING WITH
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. SATURDAY MORNING STORMS WILL BE OVER MUCH
OF THE STATE. THE FOCUS SUNDAY MORNING WILL BE IN THE NORTH...AS
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BEGIN STRENGTHENING OVER SOUTH ARKANSAS. MONDAY
SHOULD BE A DRY DAY AS THE HIGH STRENGTHENS AND DRIER AIR MOVES INTO
THE AREA. TEMPERATURES WILL BE WARMING THROUGH THE PERIOD AND WILL
BE BACK TO NORMAL MONDAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BATESVILLE AR     91  73  88  75 /  10  20  40  60
CAMDEN AR         90  73  93  74 /  40  20  20  20
HARRISON AR       91  71  86  72 /  10  20  40  50
HOT SPRINGS AR    91  74  92  75 /  30  20  20  30
LITTLE ROCK   AR  93  74  92  75 /  20  20  30  30
MONTICELLO AR     89  73  92  75 /  40  20  20  30
MOUNT IDA AR      91  73  91  74 /  20  20  20  30
MOUNTAIN HOME AR  90  70  86  72 /  10  20  50  60
NEWPORT AR        91  73  88  75 /  20  20  50  50
PINE BLUFF AR     90  73  91  75 /  30  20  30  30
RUSSELLVILLE AR   92  73  92  74 /  20  20  30  40
SEARCY AR         92  73  90  74 /  20  20  40  40
STUTTGART AR      91  73  91  75 /  30  20  40  40
&&

.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&

$$


AVIATION...51





000
FXUS64 KLZK 301134
AFDLZK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
634 AM CDT TUE JUN 30 2015

.AVIATION...
SHOWERS CONTINUE IN CENTRAL SECTIONS THIS MORNING WITH
THUNDERSTORMS IN THE SOUTHEAST. EXPECT THE PRECIPITATION TO
DIMINISH MID MORNING...THEN REDEVELOPMENT IN THE SOUTH THIS
AFTERNOON. THE NEXT SYSTEM WILL MOVE THROUGH MISSOURI TONIGHT AND
NORTH ARKANSAS COULD SEE SOME SHOWERS BY LATE IN THE PERIOD.
VFR AND MVFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 410 AM CDT TUE JUN 30 2015/

SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT

WEAK FNTL BNDRY WAS STALLED OUT ACRS CNTRL AR EARLY THIS MRNG.
SPOTTY CONVECTION HAS BEEN ONGOING OVERNIGHT ACRS PARTS OF ERN AND
SERN AR. ACTIVITY APPEARS TO BE INFLUENCED BY AN UPR IMPULSE
DROPPING SEWD THRU THE AREA. SOME OF THE RAPID UPDATE MODEL DATA
SUGGEST THAT THIS CONVECTION WL CONT TO WORK SEWD THRU THE MRNG HRS
AND WL ADJUST POPS ACCORDINGLY PRIOR TO FCST ISSUANCE.

THE UNSETTLED WX PATTERN WL CONT ACRS THE REGION THRU THE PD. A
PERSISTENT NWLY FLOW ALOFT WL CONT TO BRING A SERIES OF UPR STORM
SYS/S SEWD. THESE FEATURES WL INTERACT WITH THE LINGERING SFC BNDRY
AND ABUNDANT MOISTURE TO PRODUCE SCTD SHRA/TSRA.

TIMING OF EACH UPR FEATURE WL RMN PROBLEMATIC REGARDING CONVECTIVE
TRENDS...BUT THE HIGHEST RAIN CHCS WL CONT TO BE ACRS THE NERN HALF
OF THE FA THE NEXT FEW DAYS. ANOTHER CONCERN IN THE COMING DAYS WL
BE THE POTENTIAL FOR LOCALIZED HVY RAINFALL WHERE STORMS AFFECT
REPEATED LOCATIONS. TEMPS FOR THE MOST PART WL RMN CLOSE TO SEASONAL
NORMS.

LONG TERM...SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY

HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WILL BE OVER THE FOUR CORNERS AREA TO BEGIN THE
LONG TERM PERIOD. NORTHWEST FLOW WILL BE OVER THE PLAINS
SATURDAY...BUT AN UPPER HIGH WILL BUILD OVER THE GULF COAST AND
FLATTEN THE FLOW OVER ARKANSAS SUNDAY AND MONDAY. ALSO...THE HIGH
OVER THE WEST WILL BUILD EASTWARD SUNDAY AND MONDAY.

RAIN CHANCES WILL CONTINUE SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. EXPECT AN MCS TO
MOVE THROUGH THE AREA BOTH SATURDAY MORNING AND SUNDAY MORNING WITH
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. SATURDAY MORNING STORMS WILL BE OVER MUCH
OF THE STATE. THE FOCUS SUNDAY MORNING WILL BE IN THE NORTH...AS
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BEGIN STRENGTHENING OVER SOUTH ARKANSAS. MONDAY
SHOULD BE A DRY DAY AS THE HIGH STRENGTHENS AND DRIER AIR MOVES INTO
THE AREA. TEMPERATURES WILL BE WARMING THROUGH THE PERIOD AND WILL
BE BACK TO NORMAL MONDAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BATESVILLE AR     91  73  88  75 /  10  20  40  60
CAMDEN AR         90  73  93  74 /  40  20  20  20
HARRISON AR       91  71  86  72 /  10  20  40  50
HOT SPRINGS AR    91  74  92  75 /  30  20  20  30
LITTLE ROCK   AR  93  74  92  75 /  20  20  30  30
MONTICELLO AR     89  73  92  75 /  40  20  20  30
MOUNT IDA AR      91  73  91  74 /  20  20  20  30
MOUNTAIN HOME AR  90  70  86  72 /  10  20  50  60
NEWPORT AR        91  73  88  75 /  20  20  50  50
PINE BLUFF AR     90  73  91  75 /  30  20  30  30
RUSSELLVILLE AR   92  73  92  74 /  20  20  30  40
SEARCY AR         92  73  90  74 /  20  20  40  40
STUTTGART AR      91  73  91  75 /  30  20  40  40
&&

.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&

$$


AVIATION...51






000
FXUS64 KLZK 300911
AFDLZK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
410 AM CDT TUE JUN 30 2015

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT

WEAK FNTL BNDRY WAS STALLED OUT ACRS CNTRL AR EARLY THIS MRNG.
SPOTTY CONVECTION HAS BEEN ONGOING OVERNIGHT ACRS PARTS OF ERN AND
SERN AR. ACTIVITY APPEARS TO BE INFLUENCED BY AN UPR IMPULSE
DROPPING SEWD THRU THE AREA. SOME OF THE RAPID UPDATE MODEL DATA
SUGGEST THAT THIS CONVECTION WL CONT TO WORK SEWD THRU THE MRNG HRS
AND WL ADJUST POPS ACCORDINGLY PRIOR TO FCST ISSUANCE.

THE UNSETTLED WX PATTERN WL CONT ACRS THE REGION THRU THE PD. A
PERSISTENT NWLY FLOW ALOFT WL CONT TO BRING A SERIES OF UPR STORM
SYS/S SEWD. THESE FEATURES WL INTERACT WITH THE LINGERING SFC BNDRY
AND ABUNDANT MOISTURE TO PRODUCE SCTD SHRA/TSRA.

TIMING OF EACH UPR FEATURE WL RMN PROBLEMATIC REGARDING CONVECTIVE
TRENDS...BUT THE HIGHEST RAIN CHCS WL CONT TO BE ACRS THE NERN HALF
OF THE FA THE NEXT FEW DAYS. ANOTHER CONCERN IN THE COMING DAYS WL
BE THE POTENTIAL FOR LOCALIZED HVY RAINFALL WHERE STORMS AFFECT
REPEATED LOCATIONS. TEMPS FOR THE MOST PART WL RMN CLOSE TO SEASONAL
NORMS.
&&

.LONG TERM...SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY

HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WILL BE OVER THE FOUR CORNERS AREA TO BEGIN THE
LONG TERM PERIOD. NORTHWEST FLOW WILL BE OVER THE PLAINS
SATURDAY...BUT AN UPPER HIGH WILL BUILD OVER THE GULF COAST AND
FLATTEN THE FLOW OVER ARKANSAS SUNDAY AND MONDAY. ALSO...THE HIGH
OVER THE WEST WILL BUILD EASTWARD SUNDAY AND MONDAY.

RAIN CHANCES WILL CONTINUE SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. EXPECT AN MCS TO
MOVE THROUGH THE AREA BOTH SATURDAY MORNING AND SUNDAY MORNING WITH
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. SATURDAY MORNING STORMS WILL BE OVER MUCH
OF THE STATE. THE FOCUS SUNDAY MORNING WILL BE IN THE NORTH...AS
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BEGIN STRENGTHENING OVER SOUTH ARKANSAS. MONDAY
SHOULD BE A DRY DAY AS THE HIGH STRENGTHENS AND DRIER AIR MOVES INTO
THE AREA. TEMPERATURES WILL BE WARMING THROUGH THE PERIOD AND WILL
BE BACK TO NORMAL MONDAY.
&&

.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...44 / LONG TERM...51











000
FXUS64 KLZK 300911
AFDLZK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
410 AM CDT TUE JUN 30 2015

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT

WEAK FNTL BNDRY WAS STALLED OUT ACRS CNTRL AR EARLY THIS MRNG.
SPOTTY CONVECTION HAS BEEN ONGOING OVERNIGHT ACRS PARTS OF ERN AND
SERN AR. ACTIVITY APPEARS TO BE INFLUENCED BY AN UPR IMPULSE
DROPPING SEWD THRU THE AREA. SOME OF THE RAPID UPDATE MODEL DATA
SUGGEST THAT THIS CONVECTION WL CONT TO WORK SEWD THRU THE MRNG HRS
AND WL ADJUST POPS ACCORDINGLY PRIOR TO FCST ISSUANCE.

THE UNSETTLED WX PATTERN WL CONT ACRS THE REGION THRU THE PD. A
PERSISTENT NWLY FLOW ALOFT WL CONT TO BRING A SERIES OF UPR STORM
SYS/S SEWD. THESE FEATURES WL INTERACT WITH THE LINGERING SFC BNDRY
AND ABUNDANT MOISTURE TO PRODUCE SCTD SHRA/TSRA.

TIMING OF EACH UPR FEATURE WL RMN PROBLEMATIC REGARDING CONVECTIVE
TRENDS...BUT THE HIGHEST RAIN CHCS WL CONT TO BE ACRS THE NERN HALF
OF THE FA THE NEXT FEW DAYS. ANOTHER CONCERN IN THE COMING DAYS WL
BE THE POTENTIAL FOR LOCALIZED HVY RAINFALL WHERE STORMS AFFECT
REPEATED LOCATIONS. TEMPS FOR THE MOST PART WL RMN CLOSE TO SEASONAL
NORMS.
&&

.LONG TERM...SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY

HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WILL BE OVER THE FOUR CORNERS AREA TO BEGIN THE
LONG TERM PERIOD. NORTHWEST FLOW WILL BE OVER THE PLAINS
SATURDAY...BUT AN UPPER HIGH WILL BUILD OVER THE GULF COAST AND
FLATTEN THE FLOW OVER ARKANSAS SUNDAY AND MONDAY. ALSO...THE HIGH
OVER THE WEST WILL BUILD EASTWARD SUNDAY AND MONDAY.

RAIN CHANCES WILL CONTINUE SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. EXPECT AN MCS TO
MOVE THROUGH THE AREA BOTH SATURDAY MORNING AND SUNDAY MORNING WITH
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. SATURDAY MORNING STORMS WILL BE OVER MUCH
OF THE STATE. THE FOCUS SUNDAY MORNING WILL BE IN THE NORTH...AS
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BEGIN STRENGTHENING OVER SOUTH ARKANSAS. MONDAY
SHOULD BE A DRY DAY AS THE HIGH STRENGTHENS AND DRIER AIR MOVES INTO
THE AREA. TEMPERATURES WILL BE WARMING THROUGH THE PERIOD AND WILL
BE BACK TO NORMAL MONDAY.
&&

.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...44 / LONG TERM...51











000
FXUS64 KLZK 300911
AFDLZK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
410 AM CDT TUE JUN 30 2015

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT

WEAK FNTL BNDRY WAS STALLED OUT ACRS CNTRL AR EARLY THIS MRNG.
SPOTTY CONVECTION HAS BEEN ONGOING OVERNIGHT ACRS PARTS OF ERN AND
SERN AR. ACTIVITY APPEARS TO BE INFLUENCED BY AN UPR IMPULSE
DROPPING SEWD THRU THE AREA. SOME OF THE RAPID UPDATE MODEL DATA
SUGGEST THAT THIS CONVECTION WL CONT TO WORK SEWD THRU THE MRNG HRS
AND WL ADJUST POPS ACCORDINGLY PRIOR TO FCST ISSUANCE.

THE UNSETTLED WX PATTERN WL CONT ACRS THE REGION THRU THE PD. A
PERSISTENT NWLY FLOW ALOFT WL CONT TO BRING A SERIES OF UPR STORM
SYS/S SEWD. THESE FEATURES WL INTERACT WITH THE LINGERING SFC BNDRY
AND ABUNDANT MOISTURE TO PRODUCE SCTD SHRA/TSRA.

TIMING OF EACH UPR FEATURE WL RMN PROBLEMATIC REGARDING CONVECTIVE
TRENDS...BUT THE HIGHEST RAIN CHCS WL CONT TO BE ACRS THE NERN HALF
OF THE FA THE NEXT FEW DAYS. ANOTHER CONCERN IN THE COMING DAYS WL
BE THE POTENTIAL FOR LOCALIZED HVY RAINFALL WHERE STORMS AFFECT
REPEATED LOCATIONS. TEMPS FOR THE MOST PART WL RMN CLOSE TO SEASONAL
NORMS.
&&

.LONG TERM...SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY

HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WILL BE OVER THE FOUR CORNERS AREA TO BEGIN THE
LONG TERM PERIOD. NORTHWEST FLOW WILL BE OVER THE PLAINS
SATURDAY...BUT AN UPPER HIGH WILL BUILD OVER THE GULF COAST AND
FLATTEN THE FLOW OVER ARKANSAS SUNDAY AND MONDAY. ALSO...THE HIGH
OVER THE WEST WILL BUILD EASTWARD SUNDAY AND MONDAY.

RAIN CHANCES WILL CONTINUE SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. EXPECT AN MCS TO
MOVE THROUGH THE AREA BOTH SATURDAY MORNING AND SUNDAY MORNING WITH
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. SATURDAY MORNING STORMS WILL BE OVER MUCH
OF THE STATE. THE FOCUS SUNDAY MORNING WILL BE IN THE NORTH...AS
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BEGIN STRENGTHENING OVER SOUTH ARKANSAS. MONDAY
SHOULD BE A DRY DAY AS THE HIGH STRENGTHENS AND DRIER AIR MOVES INTO
THE AREA. TEMPERATURES WILL BE WARMING THROUGH THE PERIOD AND WILL
BE BACK TO NORMAL MONDAY.
&&

.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...44 / LONG TERM...51











000
FXUS64 KLZK 300911
AFDLZK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
410 AM CDT TUE JUN 30 2015

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT

WEAK FNTL BNDRY WAS STALLED OUT ACRS CNTRL AR EARLY THIS MRNG.
SPOTTY CONVECTION HAS BEEN ONGOING OVERNIGHT ACRS PARTS OF ERN AND
SERN AR. ACTIVITY APPEARS TO BE INFLUENCED BY AN UPR IMPULSE
DROPPING SEWD THRU THE AREA. SOME OF THE RAPID UPDATE MODEL DATA
SUGGEST THAT THIS CONVECTION WL CONT TO WORK SEWD THRU THE MRNG HRS
AND WL ADJUST POPS ACCORDINGLY PRIOR TO FCST ISSUANCE.

THE UNSETTLED WX PATTERN WL CONT ACRS THE REGION THRU THE PD. A
PERSISTENT NWLY FLOW ALOFT WL CONT TO BRING A SERIES OF UPR STORM
SYS/S SEWD. THESE FEATURES WL INTERACT WITH THE LINGERING SFC BNDRY
AND ABUNDANT MOISTURE TO PRODUCE SCTD SHRA/TSRA.

TIMING OF EACH UPR FEATURE WL RMN PROBLEMATIC REGARDING CONVECTIVE
TRENDS...BUT THE HIGHEST RAIN CHCS WL CONT TO BE ACRS THE NERN HALF
OF THE FA THE NEXT FEW DAYS. ANOTHER CONCERN IN THE COMING DAYS WL
BE THE POTENTIAL FOR LOCALIZED HVY RAINFALL WHERE STORMS AFFECT
REPEATED LOCATIONS. TEMPS FOR THE MOST PART WL RMN CLOSE TO SEASONAL
NORMS.
&&

.LONG TERM...SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY

HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WILL BE OVER THE FOUR CORNERS AREA TO BEGIN THE
LONG TERM PERIOD. NORTHWEST FLOW WILL BE OVER THE PLAINS
SATURDAY...BUT AN UPPER HIGH WILL BUILD OVER THE GULF COAST AND
FLATTEN THE FLOW OVER ARKANSAS SUNDAY AND MONDAY. ALSO...THE HIGH
OVER THE WEST WILL BUILD EASTWARD SUNDAY AND MONDAY.

RAIN CHANCES WILL CONTINUE SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. EXPECT AN MCS TO
MOVE THROUGH THE AREA BOTH SATURDAY MORNING AND SUNDAY MORNING WITH
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. SATURDAY MORNING STORMS WILL BE OVER MUCH
OF THE STATE. THE FOCUS SUNDAY MORNING WILL BE IN THE NORTH...AS
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BEGIN STRENGTHENING OVER SOUTH ARKANSAS. MONDAY
SHOULD BE A DRY DAY AS THE HIGH STRENGTHENS AND DRIER AIR MOVES INTO
THE AREA. TEMPERATURES WILL BE WARMING THROUGH THE PERIOD AND WILL
BE BACK TO NORMAL MONDAY.
&&

.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...44 / LONG TERM...51











000
FXUS64 KLZK 300546
AFDLZK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
1246 AM CDT TUE JUN 30 2015

.AVIATION...
A FRONT REMAINS STATIONARY OVER SOUTH ARKANSAS. A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE IN EAST ARKANSAS BUT WILL DIMINISH EARLY
THIS MORNING. SCATTERED TO BROKEN CUMULUS ARE EXPECTED TUESDAY
WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS IN THE SOUTH. ANOTHER SYSTEM WILL BE MOVING
INTO NORTH ARKANSAS LATE IN THE PERIOD WITH ANOTHER ROUND OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE
PERIOD.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 634 PM CDT MON JUN 29 2015/

DISCUSSION...

UPDATED FOR THE 00Z AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

AVIATION...

SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS HAVE POPPED UP ALONG A FRONTAL BOUNDARY
STRETCHED ACROSS CENTRAL ARKANSAS THIS EVENING. AN INCREASE IN
CONVECTIVE COVERAGE IS EXPECTED IN THESE PARTS OF THE STATE
THROUGH ABOUT THE 08Z-10Z TIME FRAME...AT WHICH POINT WHAT STORMS
ARE LEFT SHOULD BEGIN SHIFTING SOUTH OF ALL ARKANSAS TERMINALS.
HAVE VCSH IN AT ALL CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN TAF SITES TO ACCOUNT FOR
THIS. WILL WATCH RADAR TRENDS OVER THE NEXT HOUR OR TWO AND AMEND
IF/WHERE NECESSARY IF THUNDERSTORM CONDITIONS LOOK LIKELY.
OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH
WINDS BEING LIGHT AND MAINTAINING A WEST-SOUTHWESTERLY DIRECTION.

ADDITIONALLY...WHILE AN EXPANSIVE AREA OF SMOKE FROM CANADIAN
WILDFIRES WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD ACROSS ARKANSAS...WILL NOT
MENTION IN TAFS AS IT WILL NOT LEAD TO ANY SURFACE-BASED VSBY
RESTRICTIONS.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 238 PM CDT MON JUN 29 2015/

SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT
NORTHWEST FLOW SETUP WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE PERIOD. FRONTAL
BOUNDARY OVER NORTHERN ARKANSAS WILL MOVE SOUTH SLIGHTLY TONIGHT...
WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS/STORMS POSSIBLE.

AFOREMENTIONED FRONT WILL WOBBLE AROUND THE MID SOUTH REGION FOR
THE DURATION...WITH SEVERAL UPPER LEVEL SYSTEMS MOVING THROUGH AND
INTERACTING WITH THE SYSTEM AND DAYTIME HEATING. THIS WILL ALLOW
FOR SCATTERED AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. BY WEDNESDAY...THE FRONT WILL MOVE BACK TO THE
NORTH SLIGHTLY...BUT THEN WOBBLE BACK SOUTH DURING THE NIGHT AS
UPPER TROUGHING DIGS INTO THE SOUTHERN CONUS.

MODELS HINTING AT POTENTIAL MCS DEVELOPMENT WEDNESDAY NIGHT/EARLY
THURSDAY MORNING AFFECTING MAINLY NORTHEAST ARKANSAS...WITH
ADDITIONAL REDEVELOPMENT FURTHER INTO ARKANSAS POSSIBLE THURSDAY
NIGHT.

THROUGH THE PERIOD...TEMPERATURES WILL BE CLOSE TO SEASONAL
AVERAGES.

LONG TERM...FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY
NORTHWEST FLOW WILL KEEP RAIN CHANCES IN PLACE FOR FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY AS A SERIES OF UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES...POSSIBLY SOME
MCS DEVELOPMENT...RIDE THROUGH THE MIDSOUTH. GENERALLY SPEAKING
THE NORTH HALF OF THE STATE WILL RECEIVE THE MOST QPF OUT OF OUR
FA. PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL BE TAPERING OFF BY EARLY NEXT WEEK
AS THE UPPER RIDGE OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN UNITED STATES IS EXPECTED
TO SHIFT EAST. THIS WILL BRING BACK MORE HOT/HUMID WEATHER TO THE
NATURAL STATE. KEPT TEMPERATURES JUST SLIGHTLY BELOW AVERAGE EARLY
IN THE PERIOD ON ACCOUNT OF RAIN CHANCES. A WARMING TREND WILL
THEN BEGIN ON SUNDAY WITH MAX TEMPS CLIMBING BACK INTO THE 90S
THROUGH THE WEEK.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BATESVILLE AR     91  73  88  75 /  20  30  40  40
CAMDEN AR         92  73  92  74 /  40  20  30  20
HARRISON AR       89  71  87  72 /  20  20  30  40
HOT SPRINGS AR    92  74  91  75 /  30  20  30  30
LITTLE ROCK   AR  93  74  92  75 /  30  20  30  30
MONTICELLO AR     91  73  91  75 /  40  20  30  20
MOUNT IDA AR      91  73  90  74 /  30  20  20  30
MOUNTAIN HOME AR  90  71  87  72 /  20  30  40  40
NEWPORT AR        91  73  89  75 /  30  30  40  40
PINE BLUFF AR     91  73  91  75 /  40  20  30  30
RUSSELLVILLE AR   93  73  92  74 /  30  20  30  30
SEARCY AR         92  72  91  74 /  30  30  40  30
STUTTGART AR      92  73  91  75 /  30  20  40  30
&&

.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&

$$


AVIATION...51





000
FXUS64 KLZK 300546
AFDLZK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
1246 AM CDT TUE JUN 30 2015

.AVIATION...
A FRONT REMAINS STATIONARY OVER SOUTH ARKANSAS. A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE IN EAST ARKANSAS BUT WILL DIMINISH EARLY
THIS MORNING. SCATTERED TO BROKEN CUMULUS ARE EXPECTED TUESDAY
WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS IN THE SOUTH. ANOTHER SYSTEM WILL BE MOVING
INTO NORTH ARKANSAS LATE IN THE PERIOD WITH ANOTHER ROUND OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE
PERIOD.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 634 PM CDT MON JUN 29 2015/

DISCUSSION...

UPDATED FOR THE 00Z AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

AVIATION...

SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS HAVE POPPED UP ALONG A FRONTAL BOUNDARY
STRETCHED ACROSS CENTRAL ARKANSAS THIS EVENING. AN INCREASE IN
CONVECTIVE COVERAGE IS EXPECTED IN THESE PARTS OF THE STATE
THROUGH ABOUT THE 08Z-10Z TIME FRAME...AT WHICH POINT WHAT STORMS
ARE LEFT SHOULD BEGIN SHIFTING SOUTH OF ALL ARKANSAS TERMINALS.
HAVE VCSH IN AT ALL CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN TAF SITES TO ACCOUNT FOR
THIS. WILL WATCH RADAR TRENDS OVER THE NEXT HOUR OR TWO AND AMEND
IF/WHERE NECESSARY IF THUNDERSTORM CONDITIONS LOOK LIKELY.
OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH
WINDS BEING LIGHT AND MAINTAINING A WEST-SOUTHWESTERLY DIRECTION.

ADDITIONALLY...WHILE AN EXPANSIVE AREA OF SMOKE FROM CANADIAN
WILDFIRES WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD ACROSS ARKANSAS...WILL NOT
MENTION IN TAFS AS IT WILL NOT LEAD TO ANY SURFACE-BASED VSBY
RESTRICTIONS.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 238 PM CDT MON JUN 29 2015/

SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT
NORTHWEST FLOW SETUP WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE PERIOD. FRONTAL
BOUNDARY OVER NORTHERN ARKANSAS WILL MOVE SOUTH SLIGHTLY TONIGHT...
WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS/STORMS POSSIBLE.

AFOREMENTIONED FRONT WILL WOBBLE AROUND THE MID SOUTH REGION FOR
THE DURATION...WITH SEVERAL UPPER LEVEL SYSTEMS MOVING THROUGH AND
INTERACTING WITH THE SYSTEM AND DAYTIME HEATING. THIS WILL ALLOW
FOR SCATTERED AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. BY WEDNESDAY...THE FRONT WILL MOVE BACK TO THE
NORTH SLIGHTLY...BUT THEN WOBBLE BACK SOUTH DURING THE NIGHT AS
UPPER TROUGHING DIGS INTO THE SOUTHERN CONUS.

MODELS HINTING AT POTENTIAL MCS DEVELOPMENT WEDNESDAY NIGHT/EARLY
THURSDAY MORNING AFFECTING MAINLY NORTHEAST ARKANSAS...WITH
ADDITIONAL REDEVELOPMENT FURTHER INTO ARKANSAS POSSIBLE THURSDAY
NIGHT.

THROUGH THE PERIOD...TEMPERATURES WILL BE CLOSE TO SEASONAL
AVERAGES.

LONG TERM...FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY
NORTHWEST FLOW WILL KEEP RAIN CHANCES IN PLACE FOR FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY AS A SERIES OF UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES...POSSIBLY SOME
MCS DEVELOPMENT...RIDE THROUGH THE MIDSOUTH. GENERALLY SPEAKING
THE NORTH HALF OF THE STATE WILL RECEIVE THE MOST QPF OUT OF OUR
FA. PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL BE TAPERING OFF BY EARLY NEXT WEEK
AS THE UPPER RIDGE OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN UNITED STATES IS EXPECTED
TO SHIFT EAST. THIS WILL BRING BACK MORE HOT/HUMID WEATHER TO THE
NATURAL STATE. KEPT TEMPERATURES JUST SLIGHTLY BELOW AVERAGE EARLY
IN THE PERIOD ON ACCOUNT OF RAIN CHANCES. A WARMING TREND WILL
THEN BEGIN ON SUNDAY WITH MAX TEMPS CLIMBING BACK INTO THE 90S
THROUGH THE WEEK.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BATESVILLE AR     91  73  88  75 /  20  30  40  40
CAMDEN AR         92  73  92  74 /  40  20  30  20
HARRISON AR       89  71  87  72 /  20  20  30  40
HOT SPRINGS AR    92  74  91  75 /  30  20  30  30
LITTLE ROCK   AR  93  74  92  75 /  30  20  30  30
MONTICELLO AR     91  73  91  75 /  40  20  30  20
MOUNT IDA AR      91  73  90  74 /  30  20  20  30
MOUNTAIN HOME AR  90  71  87  72 /  20  30  40  40
NEWPORT AR        91  73  89  75 /  30  30  40  40
PINE BLUFF AR     91  73  91  75 /  40  20  30  30
RUSSELLVILLE AR   93  73  92  74 /  30  20  30  30
SEARCY AR         92  72  91  74 /  30  30  40  30
STUTTGART AR      92  73  91  75 /  30  20  40  30
&&

.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&

$$


AVIATION...51





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