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000
FXUS64 KLZK 301947
AFDLZK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
247 PM CDT SAT AUG 30 2014

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT
AN UPPER TROUGH IS OVER THE PLAINS THIS AFTERNOON AND UPPER RIDGES
ARE OVER THE SOUTHWEST AND SOUTHEAST U.S. THIS UPPER TROUGH WILL
MOVE THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES SUNDAY MORNING AND TO THE EAST COAST
SUNDAY NIGHT. UPPER HIGH PRESSURE WILL SPREAD ACROSS THE SOUTH LATE
SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.

SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED ACROSS
THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON. MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO SURGE NORTH FROM
THE GULF AND FEED THE RAIN AREA IN THE SOUTHEAST...WHERE THE HIGHEST
POPS ARE THROUGH TONIGHT. A SHORT WAVE WILL MOVE THROUGH THE
SOUTHEAST AND NORTHWEST TONIGHT. HIGHEST RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL BE IN
THE SOUTHEAST WHERE AN INCH OR MORE IS EXPECTED. RAIN CHANCES WILL
TAPER OFF SUNDAY MORNING. RAIN IN THE SOUTHEAST WILL BE ENDING
SUNDAY AFTERNOON AS THE SYSTEM EXITS TO THE EAST.

THE NEXT COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE PLAINS MONDAY AND BE NEAR
NORTHWEST ARKANSAS TUESDAY. SLIGHT CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED MONDAY IN THE NORTH THEN WILL INCREASE
MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY AS THE FRONT NEARS. RAIN CHANCES WILL
SPREAD FURTHER SOUTH ON TUESDAY. NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE
EXPECTED SUNDAY THEN BACK TO ABOVE NORMAL MONDAY AND TUESDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY
THROUGH THE LONG TERM PERIOD...THERE WILL BE CONTINUED SLIGHT
CHANCES OF SHOWERS/STORMS...AS SEVERAL WAVES MOVE AROUND THE
PERIPHERY OF WEAK UPPER RIDGING. AT THE SAME TIME...A FRONTAL
BOUNDARY WILL ATTEMPT TO MOVE INTO THE REGION AROUND WEDNESDAY...
BUT WILL BE PUSHED BACK TO THE NORTH. THERE WILL BE ANOTHER FRONT
APPROACHING BY THE WEEKEND.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE WITHIN A FEW DEGREES OF SEASONAL AVERAGES...BUT
COULD LARGELY DEPEND ON PRECIPITATION COVERAGE AND ASSOCIATED CLOUD
COVER EACH DAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BATESVILLE AR     71  90  72  92 /  70  20  10  20
CAMDEN AR         72  91  73  93 /  60  20  10  10
HARRISON AR       69  90  71  91 /  50  10  10  20
HOT SPRINGS AR    72  92  72  92 /  60  10  10  10
LITTLE ROCK   AR  72  91  72  92 /  70  20  10  10
MONTICELLO AR     73  89  73  93 /  90  40  10  10
MOUNT IDA AR      72  92  72  92 /  50  10  10  10
MOUNTAIN HOME AR  70  90  71  92 /  60  10  10  20
NEWPORT AR        72  89  72  91 /  70  30  10  20
PINE BLUFF AR     72  90  73  92 /  80  30  10  10
RUSSELLVILLE AR   71  91  72  92 /  60  10  10  10
SEARCY AR         72  90  72  92 /  70  30  10  10
STUTTGART AR      72  90  73  92 /  70  30  10  10
&&

.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...51 / LONG TERM...57






000
FXUS64 KLZK 301947
AFDLZK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
247 PM CDT SAT AUG 30 2014

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT
AN UPPER TROUGH IS OVER THE PLAINS THIS AFTERNOON AND UPPER RIDGES
ARE OVER THE SOUTHWEST AND SOUTHEAST U.S. THIS UPPER TROUGH WILL
MOVE THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES SUNDAY MORNING AND TO THE EAST COAST
SUNDAY NIGHT. UPPER HIGH PRESSURE WILL SPREAD ACROSS THE SOUTH LATE
SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.

SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED ACROSS
THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON. MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO SURGE NORTH FROM
THE GULF AND FEED THE RAIN AREA IN THE SOUTHEAST...WHERE THE HIGHEST
POPS ARE THROUGH TONIGHT. A SHORT WAVE WILL MOVE THROUGH THE
SOUTHEAST AND NORTHWEST TONIGHT. HIGHEST RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL BE IN
THE SOUTHEAST WHERE AN INCH OR MORE IS EXPECTED. RAIN CHANCES WILL
TAPER OFF SUNDAY MORNING. RAIN IN THE SOUTHEAST WILL BE ENDING
SUNDAY AFTERNOON AS THE SYSTEM EXITS TO THE EAST.

THE NEXT COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE PLAINS MONDAY AND BE NEAR
NORTHWEST ARKANSAS TUESDAY. SLIGHT CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED MONDAY IN THE NORTH THEN WILL INCREASE
MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY AS THE FRONT NEARS. RAIN CHANCES WILL
SPREAD FURTHER SOUTH ON TUESDAY. NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE
EXPECTED SUNDAY THEN BACK TO ABOVE NORMAL MONDAY AND TUESDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY
THROUGH THE LONG TERM PERIOD...THERE WILL BE CONTINUED SLIGHT
CHANCES OF SHOWERS/STORMS...AS SEVERAL WAVES MOVE AROUND THE
PERIPHERY OF WEAK UPPER RIDGING. AT THE SAME TIME...A FRONTAL
BOUNDARY WILL ATTEMPT TO MOVE INTO THE REGION AROUND WEDNESDAY...
BUT WILL BE PUSHED BACK TO THE NORTH. THERE WILL BE ANOTHER FRONT
APPROACHING BY THE WEEKEND.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE WITHIN A FEW DEGREES OF SEASONAL AVERAGES...BUT
COULD LARGELY DEPEND ON PRECIPITATION COVERAGE AND ASSOCIATED CLOUD
COVER EACH DAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BATESVILLE AR     71  90  72  92 /  70  20  10  20
CAMDEN AR         72  91  73  93 /  60  20  10  10
HARRISON AR       69  90  71  91 /  50  10  10  20
HOT SPRINGS AR    72  92  72  92 /  60  10  10  10
LITTLE ROCK   AR  72  91  72  92 /  70  20  10  10
MONTICELLO AR     73  89  73  93 /  90  40  10  10
MOUNT IDA AR      72  92  72  92 /  50  10  10  10
MOUNTAIN HOME AR  70  90  71  92 /  60  10  10  20
NEWPORT AR        72  89  72  91 /  70  30  10  20
PINE BLUFF AR     72  90  73  92 /  80  30  10  10
RUSSELLVILLE AR   71  91  72  92 /  60  10  10  10
SEARCY AR         72  90  72  92 /  70  30  10  10
STUTTGART AR      72  90  73  92 /  70  30  10  10
&&

.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...51 / LONG TERM...57






000
FXUS64 KLZK 301947
AFDLZK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
247 PM CDT SAT AUG 30 2014

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT
AN UPPER TROUGH IS OVER THE PLAINS THIS AFTERNOON AND UPPER RIDGES
ARE OVER THE SOUTHWEST AND SOUTHEAST U.S. THIS UPPER TROUGH WILL
MOVE THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES SUNDAY MORNING AND TO THE EAST COAST
SUNDAY NIGHT. UPPER HIGH PRESSURE WILL SPREAD ACROSS THE SOUTH LATE
SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.

SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED ACROSS
THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON. MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO SURGE NORTH FROM
THE GULF AND FEED THE RAIN AREA IN THE SOUTHEAST...WHERE THE HIGHEST
POPS ARE THROUGH TONIGHT. A SHORT WAVE WILL MOVE THROUGH THE
SOUTHEAST AND NORTHWEST TONIGHT. HIGHEST RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL BE IN
THE SOUTHEAST WHERE AN INCH OR MORE IS EXPECTED. RAIN CHANCES WILL
TAPER OFF SUNDAY MORNING. RAIN IN THE SOUTHEAST WILL BE ENDING
SUNDAY AFTERNOON AS THE SYSTEM EXITS TO THE EAST.

THE NEXT COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE PLAINS MONDAY AND BE NEAR
NORTHWEST ARKANSAS TUESDAY. SLIGHT CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED MONDAY IN THE NORTH THEN WILL INCREASE
MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY AS THE FRONT NEARS. RAIN CHANCES WILL
SPREAD FURTHER SOUTH ON TUESDAY. NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE
EXPECTED SUNDAY THEN BACK TO ABOVE NORMAL MONDAY AND TUESDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY
THROUGH THE LONG TERM PERIOD...THERE WILL BE CONTINUED SLIGHT
CHANCES OF SHOWERS/STORMS...AS SEVERAL WAVES MOVE AROUND THE
PERIPHERY OF WEAK UPPER RIDGING. AT THE SAME TIME...A FRONTAL
BOUNDARY WILL ATTEMPT TO MOVE INTO THE REGION AROUND WEDNESDAY...
BUT WILL BE PUSHED BACK TO THE NORTH. THERE WILL BE ANOTHER FRONT
APPROACHING BY THE WEEKEND.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE WITHIN A FEW DEGREES OF SEASONAL AVERAGES...BUT
COULD LARGELY DEPEND ON PRECIPITATION COVERAGE AND ASSOCIATED CLOUD
COVER EACH DAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BATESVILLE AR     71  90  72  92 /  70  20  10  20
CAMDEN AR         72  91  73  93 /  60  20  10  10
HARRISON AR       69  90  71  91 /  50  10  10  20
HOT SPRINGS AR    72  92  72  92 /  60  10  10  10
LITTLE ROCK   AR  72  91  72  92 /  70  20  10  10
MONTICELLO AR     73  89  73  93 /  90  40  10  10
MOUNT IDA AR      72  92  72  92 /  50  10  10  10
MOUNTAIN HOME AR  70  90  71  92 /  60  10  10  20
NEWPORT AR        72  89  72  91 /  70  30  10  20
PINE BLUFF AR     72  90  73  92 /  80  30  10  10
RUSSELLVILLE AR   71  91  72  92 /  60  10  10  10
SEARCY AR         72  90  72  92 /  70  30  10  10
STUTTGART AR      72  90  73  92 /  70  30  10  10
&&

.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...51 / LONG TERM...57






000
FXUS64 KLZK 301947
AFDLZK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
247 PM CDT SAT AUG 30 2014

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT
AN UPPER TROUGH IS OVER THE PLAINS THIS AFTERNOON AND UPPER RIDGES
ARE OVER THE SOUTHWEST AND SOUTHEAST U.S. THIS UPPER TROUGH WILL
MOVE THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES SUNDAY MORNING AND TO THE EAST COAST
SUNDAY NIGHT. UPPER HIGH PRESSURE WILL SPREAD ACROSS THE SOUTH LATE
SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.

SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED ACROSS
THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON. MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO SURGE NORTH FROM
THE GULF AND FEED THE RAIN AREA IN THE SOUTHEAST...WHERE THE HIGHEST
POPS ARE THROUGH TONIGHT. A SHORT WAVE WILL MOVE THROUGH THE
SOUTHEAST AND NORTHWEST TONIGHT. HIGHEST RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL BE IN
THE SOUTHEAST WHERE AN INCH OR MORE IS EXPECTED. RAIN CHANCES WILL
TAPER OFF SUNDAY MORNING. RAIN IN THE SOUTHEAST WILL BE ENDING
SUNDAY AFTERNOON AS THE SYSTEM EXITS TO THE EAST.

THE NEXT COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE PLAINS MONDAY AND BE NEAR
NORTHWEST ARKANSAS TUESDAY. SLIGHT CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED MONDAY IN THE NORTH THEN WILL INCREASE
MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY AS THE FRONT NEARS. RAIN CHANCES WILL
SPREAD FURTHER SOUTH ON TUESDAY. NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE
EXPECTED SUNDAY THEN BACK TO ABOVE NORMAL MONDAY AND TUESDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY
THROUGH THE LONG TERM PERIOD...THERE WILL BE CONTINUED SLIGHT
CHANCES OF SHOWERS/STORMS...AS SEVERAL WAVES MOVE AROUND THE
PERIPHERY OF WEAK UPPER RIDGING. AT THE SAME TIME...A FRONTAL
BOUNDARY WILL ATTEMPT TO MOVE INTO THE REGION AROUND WEDNESDAY...
BUT WILL BE PUSHED BACK TO THE NORTH. THERE WILL BE ANOTHER FRONT
APPROACHING BY THE WEEKEND.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE WITHIN A FEW DEGREES OF SEASONAL AVERAGES...BUT
COULD LARGELY DEPEND ON PRECIPITATION COVERAGE AND ASSOCIATED CLOUD
COVER EACH DAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BATESVILLE AR     71  90  72  92 /  70  20  10  20
CAMDEN AR         72  91  73  93 /  60  20  10  10
HARRISON AR       69  90  71  91 /  50  10  10  20
HOT SPRINGS AR    72  92  72  92 /  60  10  10  10
LITTLE ROCK   AR  72  91  72  92 /  70  20  10  10
MONTICELLO AR     73  89  73  93 /  90  40  10  10
MOUNT IDA AR      72  92  72  92 /  50  10  10  10
MOUNTAIN HOME AR  70  90  71  92 /  60  10  10  20
NEWPORT AR        72  89  72  91 /  70  30  10  20
PINE BLUFF AR     72  90  73  92 /  80  30  10  10
RUSSELLVILLE AR   71  91  72  92 /  60  10  10  10
SEARCY AR         72  90  72  92 /  70  30  10  10
STUTTGART AR      72  90  73  92 /  70  30  10  10
&&

.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...51 / LONG TERM...57






000
FXUS64 KLZK 301736 AAA
AFDLZK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
1236 PM CDT SAT AUG 30 2014

.AVIATION...
MOST AREAS ARE VFR NOW...BUT CONDITIONS WILL DETERIORATE THROUGH
THE LATE AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT...AS AN UPPER WAVE MOVES UP FROM
THE SOUTHWEST AND TRAVERSES SOUTHEAST ARKANSAS. MAINLY STRATIFORM
RAIN WILL BE NOTED...BUT WITH ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ALSO
POSSIBLE. THESE WILL DIMINISH DURING THE MORNING HOURS SUNDAY...AS
THE WAVE EXITS THE REGION TO THE EAST.

PRECIPITATION SHOULD KEEP VISBY AND CEILING RESTRICTIONS OVER
SOUTHEAST ARKANSAS...PARTICULARLY AFTER SUNSET TONIGHT. OVER THE
NORTHWEST...LOW CLOUDS AND FOG ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP IN THE
EARLY MORNING HOURS...AS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE REMAINS ABUNDANT...AND
MID/HIGH CLOUDS MAY BRIEFLY BREAK. MVFR TO IFR CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED.

OVER THE SOUTHEAST...LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP
BY THIS EVENING...DIMINISHING AFTER 08Z AS THE AFOREMENTIONED WAVE
MOVES EAST. SURFACE WINDS WILL BE GUSTY AS WELL AT LLQ...WITH
SUSTAINED SPEEDS AOA 10 KT WITH HIGHER GUSTS.

TAFS ALREADY OUT.
&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1034 AM CDT SAT AUG 30 2014/

UPDATE...

THE UPPER TROUGH IS OVER OKLAHOMA AT THIS TIME AND BRINGING A
SOUTHWEST FLOW TO ARKANSAS. THIS WILL BRING ABUNDANT MOISTURE INTO
SOUTHEAST AND EAST ARKANSAS THIS AFTERNOON. WILL KEEP BEST RAIN
CHANCES IN THE EAST AND LESSER CHANCES IN THE WEST. INCREASED POPS
THIS AFTERNOON AND CLOUD COVER...AND INCREASED CENTRAL ARKANSAS
MAX TEMPERATURES A DEGREE. WITH ABUNDANT CLOUD COVER...MAX
TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE COOLER THAN YESTERDAY.
&&

.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&

$$


AVIATION...57





000
FXUS64 KLZK 301736 AAA
AFDLZK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
1236 PM CDT SAT AUG 30 2014

.AVIATION...
MOST AREAS ARE VFR NOW...BUT CONDITIONS WILL DETERIORATE THROUGH
THE LATE AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT...AS AN UPPER WAVE MOVES UP FROM
THE SOUTHWEST AND TRAVERSES SOUTHEAST ARKANSAS. MAINLY STRATIFORM
RAIN WILL BE NOTED...BUT WITH ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ALSO
POSSIBLE. THESE WILL DIMINISH DURING THE MORNING HOURS SUNDAY...AS
THE WAVE EXITS THE REGION TO THE EAST.

PRECIPITATION SHOULD KEEP VISBY AND CEILING RESTRICTIONS OVER
SOUTHEAST ARKANSAS...PARTICULARLY AFTER SUNSET TONIGHT. OVER THE
NORTHWEST...LOW CLOUDS AND FOG ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP IN THE
EARLY MORNING HOURS...AS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE REMAINS ABUNDANT...AND
MID/HIGH CLOUDS MAY BRIEFLY BREAK. MVFR TO IFR CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED.

OVER THE SOUTHEAST...LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP
BY THIS EVENING...DIMINISHING AFTER 08Z AS THE AFOREMENTIONED WAVE
MOVES EAST. SURFACE WINDS WILL BE GUSTY AS WELL AT LLQ...WITH
SUSTAINED SPEEDS AOA 10 KT WITH HIGHER GUSTS.

TAFS ALREADY OUT.
&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1034 AM CDT SAT AUG 30 2014/

UPDATE...

THE UPPER TROUGH IS OVER OKLAHOMA AT THIS TIME AND BRINGING A
SOUTHWEST FLOW TO ARKANSAS. THIS WILL BRING ABUNDANT MOISTURE INTO
SOUTHEAST AND EAST ARKANSAS THIS AFTERNOON. WILL KEEP BEST RAIN
CHANCES IN THE EAST AND LESSER CHANCES IN THE WEST. INCREASED POPS
THIS AFTERNOON AND CLOUD COVER...AND INCREASED CENTRAL ARKANSAS
MAX TEMPERATURES A DEGREE. WITH ABUNDANT CLOUD COVER...MAX
TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE COOLER THAN YESTERDAY.
&&

.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&

$$


AVIATION...57






000
FXUS64 KLZK 301534
AFDLZK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
1034 AM CDT SAT AUG 30 2014

.UPDATE...

THE UPPER TROUGH IS OVER OKLAHOMA AT THIS TIME AND BRINGING A
SOUTHWEST FLOW TO ARKANSAS. THIS WILL BRING ABUNDANT MOISTURE INTO
SOUTHEAST AND EAST ARKANSAS THIS AFTERNOON. WILL KEEP BEST RAIN
CHANCES IN THE EAST AND LESSER CHANCES IN THE WEST. INCREASED POPS
THIS AFTERNOON AND CLOUD COVER...AND INCREASED CENTRAL ARKANSAS
MAX TEMPERATURES A DEGREE. WITH ABUNDANT CLOUD COVER...MAX
TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE COOLER THAN YESTERDAY.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 319 AM CDT SAT AUG 30 2014/

SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT
SENSIBLE WEATHER WILL REMAIN A BIT ON THE UNSETTLED SIDE THROUGH THE
HOLIDAY WEEKEND AND BEYOND BUT NO COMPLETE WASHOUTS ARE EXPECTED
ANYWHERE IN THE COUNTY WARNING AREA. MODELS ARE IN DECENT ENOUGH
AGREEMENT THIS MORNING THAT A BLEND OF GFS/ECMWF SOLUTIONS WILL BE
USED WITH A LEAN TOWARDS THE MORE CONSISTENT ECMWF.

UPPER PATTERN REMAINS CHARACTERIZED BY HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OFF
THE SOUTHERN CALIFORNIAN COAST AND OFF THE OUTER BANKS OF NORTH
CAROLINA. IN BETWEEN IS TROUGHING EXTENDING FROM THE WESTERN LAKES
ALL THE WAY DOWN TO THE GULF COAST. PATTERN WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY
DAMPEN WITH TIME INTO A BROAD CYCLONIC FLOW COVERING THE NORTHERN
HALF OF THE COUNTY AND BROAD RIDGING OVER THE SOUTH.

MOISTURE CHANNEL IMAGERY IS SHOWING ONE DISTINCT AND ONE WEAKER
CIRCULATION IN THE WESTERN GULF. THESE FEATURES WILL KEEP A STEADY
SUPPLY OF MOISTURE FEEDING INTO THE TROUGH WITH PWATS IN EXCESS OF
1.5 INCHES. SCATTERED PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TODAY AS THE TROUGH
MOVES EAST WITH BETTER CHANCES OVER THE EAST AND SOUTHEAST AS ONE OF
THE AFOREMENTIONED GULF CIRCULATIONS MOVES EAST OF THE ADVANCING
TROUGH. PWATS INCREASE TO IN EXCESS OF TWO INCHES OVER THE EAST AS
THE DAY PROGRESSES.

COME SUNDAY...BEST MOISTURE AND DYNAMICS ARE PULLED NORTH INTO THE
OHIO VALLEY WITH LINGERING PRECIPITATION CHANCES ENDING FROM
NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST AS THE DAY PROGRESSES. A COLD FRONT WILL
BEGIN TO APPROACH THE NORTHERN PART OF THE STATE MONDAY AFTERNOON
BUT ONLY SCATTERED POPS WILL BE JUSTIFIED ALONG THE MISSOURI BORDER.
FRONT DOES WORK ITS WAY INTO THE NORTHERN PART OF THE STATE MONDAY
NIGHT AND INTO TUESDAY BEFORE WASHING OUT SOMEWHAT. HOWEVER...POPS
WILL NEED TO BE CARRIED MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
PERIOD.

CONCERNING TEMPERATURES...COOLEST DAY OF THE PERIOD WILL BE TODAY
WITH THE INCREASED CLOUD COVER AND PRECIPITATION IN THE AREA. BROAD
UPPER RIDGE BEGINS TO GET REESTABLISHED OVER THE SOUTHERN PART OF
THE NATION BUT IN A MUCH WEAKER FORM THAT LAST WEEK. AS A RESULT...
TEMPS WILL WARM BACK INTO THE 90S FOR MOST AREAS WITH THE EXCEPTION
OF THE NORTH WHERE IT WILL BE COOLER THANKS TO THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY
IN THE AREA. MAV/MEX NUMBERS LOOK REASONABLE AND ARE GENERALLY
ACCEPTED.

LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY
NOT MUCH CHANGE FOR THE LONG TERM. ZONAL UPPER LEVEL FLOW WILL
PREVAIL ACROSS THE NRN TIER STATES THROUGH THE PERIOD...WITH BROAD
UPPER LEVEL RIDGING ACROSS THE SOUTH CENTRAL AND SOUTHEASTERN CONUS.
AT THE SURFACE...LOW PRESSURE WILL BE PRESENT IN THE CENTRAL AND
HIGH PLAINS WITH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE ANCHORED IN THE CAROLINAS
RESULTING IN SOUTHERLY FLOW ACROSS ARKANSAS THROUGH THE PERIOD.

OVERALL THE LONG TERM WILL PROBABLY BE DRY MOST OF THE TIME FOR MOST
LOCATIONS. HOWEVER HIGH PRESSURE OVERHEAD WILL NOT LIKELY BE STRONG
ENOUGH TO TOTALLY CAP THE ATMOSPHERE...THUS SOME AFTERNOON SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS MAY OCCUR EACH AFTERNOON. THE BEST CHANCES LOOK TO
BE ACROSS THE NORTH AND NORTHEAST PARTS OF THE FORECAST AREA ON
WEDNESDAY DUE TO PROXIMITY OF FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND WEAKENED UPPER
LEVEL RIDGING DUE TO WEAK UPPER TROUGH SWING BY TO THE NORTH TUESDAY
NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...KEPT POPS JUST LOW
ENOUGH TO PREVENT PRECIP WORDING FROM SHOWING UP IN THE FORECAST AS
UPPER RIDGING WEAKLY BUILDS OVERHEAD...BUT RAIN CHANCES WILL NOT BE
ZERO. TEMPERATURES WILL BE CLOSE TO SEASONAL VALUES THROUGH THE
PERIOD...EXCEPT A LITTLE BELOW NORMAL IN THE NORTH EARLY ON DUE TO
RAIN CHANCES AND CLOUD COVER.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BATESVILLE AR     85  73  91  74 /  60  50  20  10
CAMDEN AR         86  74  93  75 /  60  60  20  10
HARRISON AR       85  72  90  73 /  60  30  10  10
HOT SPRINGS AR    87  74  92  74 /  50  40  10  10
LITTLE ROCK   AR  86  74  91  74 /  60  50  20  10
MONTICELLO AR     85  75  92  75 / 100  70  40  10
MOUNT IDA AR      88  74  92  74 /  50  40  10  10
MOUNTAIN HOME AR  85  72  90  73 /  60  40  10  10
NEWPORT AR        85  74  90  74 /  60  60  30  10
PINE BLUFF AR     86  74  91  75 /  80  60  30  10
RUSSELLVILLE AR   87  73  91  74 /  50  40  10  10
SEARCY AR         85  74  91  74 /  60  60  30  10
STUTTGART AR      85  74  91  75 /  70  60  30  10
&&

.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&

$$

51





000
FXUS64 KLZK 301534
AFDLZK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
1034 AM CDT SAT AUG 30 2014

.UPDATE...

THE UPPER TROUGH IS OVER OKLAHOMA AT THIS TIME AND BRINGING A
SOUTHWEST FLOW TO ARKANSAS. THIS WILL BRING ABUNDANT MOISTURE INTO
SOUTHEAST AND EAST ARKANSAS THIS AFTERNOON. WILL KEEP BEST RAIN
CHANCES IN THE EAST AND LESSER CHANCES IN THE WEST. INCREASED POPS
THIS AFTERNOON AND CLOUD COVER...AND INCREASED CENTRAL ARKANSAS
MAX TEMPERATURES A DEGREE. WITH ABUNDANT CLOUD COVER...MAX
TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE COOLER THAN YESTERDAY.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 319 AM CDT SAT AUG 30 2014/

SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT
SENSIBLE WEATHER WILL REMAIN A BIT ON THE UNSETTLED SIDE THROUGH THE
HOLIDAY WEEKEND AND BEYOND BUT NO COMPLETE WASHOUTS ARE EXPECTED
ANYWHERE IN THE COUNTY WARNING AREA. MODELS ARE IN DECENT ENOUGH
AGREEMENT THIS MORNING THAT A BLEND OF GFS/ECMWF SOLUTIONS WILL BE
USED WITH A LEAN TOWARDS THE MORE CONSISTENT ECMWF.

UPPER PATTERN REMAINS CHARACTERIZED BY HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OFF
THE SOUTHERN CALIFORNIAN COAST AND OFF THE OUTER BANKS OF NORTH
CAROLINA. IN BETWEEN IS TROUGHING EXTENDING FROM THE WESTERN LAKES
ALL THE WAY DOWN TO THE GULF COAST. PATTERN WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY
DAMPEN WITH TIME INTO A BROAD CYCLONIC FLOW COVERING THE NORTHERN
HALF OF THE COUNTY AND BROAD RIDGING OVER THE SOUTH.

MOISTURE CHANNEL IMAGERY IS SHOWING ONE DISTINCT AND ONE WEAKER
CIRCULATION IN THE WESTERN GULF. THESE FEATURES WILL KEEP A STEADY
SUPPLY OF MOISTURE FEEDING INTO THE TROUGH WITH PWATS IN EXCESS OF
1.5 INCHES. SCATTERED PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TODAY AS THE TROUGH
MOVES EAST WITH BETTER CHANCES OVER THE EAST AND SOUTHEAST AS ONE OF
THE AFOREMENTIONED GULF CIRCULATIONS MOVES EAST OF THE ADVANCING
TROUGH. PWATS INCREASE TO IN EXCESS OF TWO INCHES OVER THE EAST AS
THE DAY PROGRESSES.

COME SUNDAY...BEST MOISTURE AND DYNAMICS ARE PULLED NORTH INTO THE
OHIO VALLEY WITH LINGERING PRECIPITATION CHANCES ENDING FROM
NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST AS THE DAY PROGRESSES. A COLD FRONT WILL
BEGIN TO APPROACH THE NORTHERN PART OF THE STATE MONDAY AFTERNOON
BUT ONLY SCATTERED POPS WILL BE JUSTIFIED ALONG THE MISSOURI BORDER.
FRONT DOES WORK ITS WAY INTO THE NORTHERN PART OF THE STATE MONDAY
NIGHT AND INTO TUESDAY BEFORE WASHING OUT SOMEWHAT. HOWEVER...POPS
WILL NEED TO BE CARRIED MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
PERIOD.

CONCERNING TEMPERATURES...COOLEST DAY OF THE PERIOD WILL BE TODAY
WITH THE INCREASED CLOUD COVER AND PRECIPITATION IN THE AREA. BROAD
UPPER RIDGE BEGINS TO GET REESTABLISHED OVER THE SOUTHERN PART OF
THE NATION BUT IN A MUCH WEAKER FORM THAT LAST WEEK. AS A RESULT...
TEMPS WILL WARM BACK INTO THE 90S FOR MOST AREAS WITH THE EXCEPTION
OF THE NORTH WHERE IT WILL BE COOLER THANKS TO THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY
IN THE AREA. MAV/MEX NUMBERS LOOK REASONABLE AND ARE GENERALLY
ACCEPTED.

LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY
NOT MUCH CHANGE FOR THE LONG TERM. ZONAL UPPER LEVEL FLOW WILL
PREVAIL ACROSS THE NRN TIER STATES THROUGH THE PERIOD...WITH BROAD
UPPER LEVEL RIDGING ACROSS THE SOUTH CENTRAL AND SOUTHEASTERN CONUS.
AT THE SURFACE...LOW PRESSURE WILL BE PRESENT IN THE CENTRAL AND
HIGH PLAINS WITH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE ANCHORED IN THE CAROLINAS
RESULTING IN SOUTHERLY FLOW ACROSS ARKANSAS THROUGH THE PERIOD.

OVERALL THE LONG TERM WILL PROBABLY BE DRY MOST OF THE TIME FOR MOST
LOCATIONS. HOWEVER HIGH PRESSURE OVERHEAD WILL NOT LIKELY BE STRONG
ENOUGH TO TOTALLY CAP THE ATMOSPHERE...THUS SOME AFTERNOON SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS MAY OCCUR EACH AFTERNOON. THE BEST CHANCES LOOK TO
BE ACROSS THE NORTH AND NORTHEAST PARTS OF THE FORECAST AREA ON
WEDNESDAY DUE TO PROXIMITY OF FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND WEAKENED UPPER
LEVEL RIDGING DUE TO WEAK UPPER TROUGH SWING BY TO THE NORTH TUESDAY
NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...KEPT POPS JUST LOW
ENOUGH TO PREVENT PRECIP WORDING FROM SHOWING UP IN THE FORECAST AS
UPPER RIDGING WEAKLY BUILDS OVERHEAD...BUT RAIN CHANCES WILL NOT BE
ZERO. TEMPERATURES WILL BE CLOSE TO SEASONAL VALUES THROUGH THE
PERIOD...EXCEPT A LITTLE BELOW NORMAL IN THE NORTH EARLY ON DUE TO
RAIN CHANCES AND CLOUD COVER.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BATESVILLE AR     85  73  91  74 /  60  50  20  10
CAMDEN AR         86  74  93  75 /  60  60  20  10
HARRISON AR       85  72  90  73 /  60  30  10  10
HOT SPRINGS AR    87  74  92  74 /  50  40  10  10
LITTLE ROCK   AR  86  74  91  74 /  60  50  20  10
MONTICELLO AR     85  75  92  75 / 100  70  40  10
MOUNT IDA AR      88  74  92  74 /  50  40  10  10
MOUNTAIN HOME AR  85  72  90  73 /  60  40  10  10
NEWPORT AR        85  74  90  74 /  60  60  30  10
PINE BLUFF AR     86  74  91  75 /  80  60  30  10
RUSSELLVILLE AR   87  73  91  74 /  50  40  10  10
SEARCY AR         85  74  91  74 /  60  60  30  10
STUTTGART AR      85  74  91  75 /  70  60  30  10
&&

.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&

$$

51





000
FXUS64 KLZK 301534
AFDLZK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
1034 AM CDT SAT AUG 30 2014

.UPDATE...

THE UPPER TROUGH IS OVER OKLAHOMA AT THIS TIME AND BRINGING A
SOUTHWEST FLOW TO ARKANSAS. THIS WILL BRING ABUNDANT MOISTURE INTO
SOUTHEAST AND EAST ARKANSAS THIS AFTERNOON. WILL KEEP BEST RAIN
CHANCES IN THE EAST AND LESSER CHANCES IN THE WEST. INCREASED POPS
THIS AFTERNOON AND CLOUD COVER...AND INCREASED CENTRAL ARKANSAS
MAX TEMPERATURES A DEGREE. WITH ABUNDANT CLOUD COVER...MAX
TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE COOLER THAN YESTERDAY.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 319 AM CDT SAT AUG 30 2014/

SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT
SENSIBLE WEATHER WILL REMAIN A BIT ON THE UNSETTLED SIDE THROUGH THE
HOLIDAY WEEKEND AND BEYOND BUT NO COMPLETE WASHOUTS ARE EXPECTED
ANYWHERE IN THE COUNTY WARNING AREA. MODELS ARE IN DECENT ENOUGH
AGREEMENT THIS MORNING THAT A BLEND OF GFS/ECMWF SOLUTIONS WILL BE
USED WITH A LEAN TOWARDS THE MORE CONSISTENT ECMWF.

UPPER PATTERN REMAINS CHARACTERIZED BY HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OFF
THE SOUTHERN CALIFORNIAN COAST AND OFF THE OUTER BANKS OF NORTH
CAROLINA. IN BETWEEN IS TROUGHING EXTENDING FROM THE WESTERN LAKES
ALL THE WAY DOWN TO THE GULF COAST. PATTERN WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY
DAMPEN WITH TIME INTO A BROAD CYCLONIC FLOW COVERING THE NORTHERN
HALF OF THE COUNTY AND BROAD RIDGING OVER THE SOUTH.

MOISTURE CHANNEL IMAGERY IS SHOWING ONE DISTINCT AND ONE WEAKER
CIRCULATION IN THE WESTERN GULF. THESE FEATURES WILL KEEP A STEADY
SUPPLY OF MOISTURE FEEDING INTO THE TROUGH WITH PWATS IN EXCESS OF
1.5 INCHES. SCATTERED PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TODAY AS THE TROUGH
MOVES EAST WITH BETTER CHANCES OVER THE EAST AND SOUTHEAST AS ONE OF
THE AFOREMENTIONED GULF CIRCULATIONS MOVES EAST OF THE ADVANCING
TROUGH. PWATS INCREASE TO IN EXCESS OF TWO INCHES OVER THE EAST AS
THE DAY PROGRESSES.

COME SUNDAY...BEST MOISTURE AND DYNAMICS ARE PULLED NORTH INTO THE
OHIO VALLEY WITH LINGERING PRECIPITATION CHANCES ENDING FROM
NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST AS THE DAY PROGRESSES. A COLD FRONT WILL
BEGIN TO APPROACH THE NORTHERN PART OF THE STATE MONDAY AFTERNOON
BUT ONLY SCATTERED POPS WILL BE JUSTIFIED ALONG THE MISSOURI BORDER.
FRONT DOES WORK ITS WAY INTO THE NORTHERN PART OF THE STATE MONDAY
NIGHT AND INTO TUESDAY BEFORE WASHING OUT SOMEWHAT. HOWEVER...POPS
WILL NEED TO BE CARRIED MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
PERIOD.

CONCERNING TEMPERATURES...COOLEST DAY OF THE PERIOD WILL BE TODAY
WITH THE INCREASED CLOUD COVER AND PRECIPITATION IN THE AREA. BROAD
UPPER RIDGE BEGINS TO GET REESTABLISHED OVER THE SOUTHERN PART OF
THE NATION BUT IN A MUCH WEAKER FORM THAT LAST WEEK. AS A RESULT...
TEMPS WILL WARM BACK INTO THE 90S FOR MOST AREAS WITH THE EXCEPTION
OF THE NORTH WHERE IT WILL BE COOLER THANKS TO THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY
IN THE AREA. MAV/MEX NUMBERS LOOK REASONABLE AND ARE GENERALLY
ACCEPTED.

LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY
NOT MUCH CHANGE FOR THE LONG TERM. ZONAL UPPER LEVEL FLOW WILL
PREVAIL ACROSS THE NRN TIER STATES THROUGH THE PERIOD...WITH BROAD
UPPER LEVEL RIDGING ACROSS THE SOUTH CENTRAL AND SOUTHEASTERN CONUS.
AT THE SURFACE...LOW PRESSURE WILL BE PRESENT IN THE CENTRAL AND
HIGH PLAINS WITH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE ANCHORED IN THE CAROLINAS
RESULTING IN SOUTHERLY FLOW ACROSS ARKANSAS THROUGH THE PERIOD.

OVERALL THE LONG TERM WILL PROBABLY BE DRY MOST OF THE TIME FOR MOST
LOCATIONS. HOWEVER HIGH PRESSURE OVERHEAD WILL NOT LIKELY BE STRONG
ENOUGH TO TOTALLY CAP THE ATMOSPHERE...THUS SOME AFTERNOON SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS MAY OCCUR EACH AFTERNOON. THE BEST CHANCES LOOK TO
BE ACROSS THE NORTH AND NORTHEAST PARTS OF THE FORECAST AREA ON
WEDNESDAY DUE TO PROXIMITY OF FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND WEAKENED UPPER
LEVEL RIDGING DUE TO WEAK UPPER TROUGH SWING BY TO THE NORTH TUESDAY
NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...KEPT POPS JUST LOW
ENOUGH TO PREVENT PRECIP WORDING FROM SHOWING UP IN THE FORECAST AS
UPPER RIDGING WEAKLY BUILDS OVERHEAD...BUT RAIN CHANCES WILL NOT BE
ZERO. TEMPERATURES WILL BE CLOSE TO SEASONAL VALUES THROUGH THE
PERIOD...EXCEPT A LITTLE BELOW NORMAL IN THE NORTH EARLY ON DUE TO
RAIN CHANCES AND CLOUD COVER.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BATESVILLE AR     85  73  91  74 /  60  50  20  10
CAMDEN AR         86  74  93  75 /  60  60  20  10
HARRISON AR       85  72  90  73 /  60  30  10  10
HOT SPRINGS AR    87  74  92  74 /  50  40  10  10
LITTLE ROCK   AR  86  74  91  74 /  60  50  20  10
MONTICELLO AR     85  75  92  75 / 100  70  40  10
MOUNT IDA AR      88  74  92  74 /  50  40  10  10
MOUNTAIN HOME AR  85  72  90  73 /  60  40  10  10
NEWPORT AR        85  74  90  74 /  60  60  30  10
PINE BLUFF AR     86  74  91  75 /  80  60  30  10
RUSSELLVILLE AR   87  73  91  74 /  50  40  10  10
SEARCY AR         85  74  91  74 /  60  60  30  10
STUTTGART AR      85  74  91  75 /  70  60  30  10
&&

.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&

$$

51





000
FXUS64 KLZK 301534
AFDLZK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
1034 AM CDT SAT AUG 30 2014

.UPDATE...

THE UPPER TROUGH IS OVER OKLAHOMA AT THIS TIME AND BRINGING A
SOUTHWEST FLOW TO ARKANSAS. THIS WILL BRING ABUNDANT MOISTURE INTO
SOUTHEAST AND EAST ARKANSAS THIS AFTERNOON. WILL KEEP BEST RAIN
CHANCES IN THE EAST AND LESSER CHANCES IN THE WEST. INCREASED POPS
THIS AFTERNOON AND CLOUD COVER...AND INCREASED CENTRAL ARKANSAS
MAX TEMPERATURES A DEGREE. WITH ABUNDANT CLOUD COVER...MAX
TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE COOLER THAN YESTERDAY.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 319 AM CDT SAT AUG 30 2014/

SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT
SENSIBLE WEATHER WILL REMAIN A BIT ON THE UNSETTLED SIDE THROUGH THE
HOLIDAY WEEKEND AND BEYOND BUT NO COMPLETE WASHOUTS ARE EXPECTED
ANYWHERE IN THE COUNTY WARNING AREA. MODELS ARE IN DECENT ENOUGH
AGREEMENT THIS MORNING THAT A BLEND OF GFS/ECMWF SOLUTIONS WILL BE
USED WITH A LEAN TOWARDS THE MORE CONSISTENT ECMWF.

UPPER PATTERN REMAINS CHARACTERIZED BY HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OFF
THE SOUTHERN CALIFORNIAN COAST AND OFF THE OUTER BANKS OF NORTH
CAROLINA. IN BETWEEN IS TROUGHING EXTENDING FROM THE WESTERN LAKES
ALL THE WAY DOWN TO THE GULF COAST. PATTERN WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY
DAMPEN WITH TIME INTO A BROAD CYCLONIC FLOW COVERING THE NORTHERN
HALF OF THE COUNTY AND BROAD RIDGING OVER THE SOUTH.

MOISTURE CHANNEL IMAGERY IS SHOWING ONE DISTINCT AND ONE WEAKER
CIRCULATION IN THE WESTERN GULF. THESE FEATURES WILL KEEP A STEADY
SUPPLY OF MOISTURE FEEDING INTO THE TROUGH WITH PWATS IN EXCESS OF
1.5 INCHES. SCATTERED PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TODAY AS THE TROUGH
MOVES EAST WITH BETTER CHANCES OVER THE EAST AND SOUTHEAST AS ONE OF
THE AFOREMENTIONED GULF CIRCULATIONS MOVES EAST OF THE ADVANCING
TROUGH. PWATS INCREASE TO IN EXCESS OF TWO INCHES OVER THE EAST AS
THE DAY PROGRESSES.

COME SUNDAY...BEST MOISTURE AND DYNAMICS ARE PULLED NORTH INTO THE
OHIO VALLEY WITH LINGERING PRECIPITATION CHANCES ENDING FROM
NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST AS THE DAY PROGRESSES. A COLD FRONT WILL
BEGIN TO APPROACH THE NORTHERN PART OF THE STATE MONDAY AFTERNOON
BUT ONLY SCATTERED POPS WILL BE JUSTIFIED ALONG THE MISSOURI BORDER.
FRONT DOES WORK ITS WAY INTO THE NORTHERN PART OF THE STATE MONDAY
NIGHT AND INTO TUESDAY BEFORE WASHING OUT SOMEWHAT. HOWEVER...POPS
WILL NEED TO BE CARRIED MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
PERIOD.

CONCERNING TEMPERATURES...COOLEST DAY OF THE PERIOD WILL BE TODAY
WITH THE INCREASED CLOUD COVER AND PRECIPITATION IN THE AREA. BROAD
UPPER RIDGE BEGINS TO GET REESTABLISHED OVER THE SOUTHERN PART OF
THE NATION BUT IN A MUCH WEAKER FORM THAT LAST WEEK. AS A RESULT...
TEMPS WILL WARM BACK INTO THE 90S FOR MOST AREAS WITH THE EXCEPTION
OF THE NORTH WHERE IT WILL BE COOLER THANKS TO THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY
IN THE AREA. MAV/MEX NUMBERS LOOK REASONABLE AND ARE GENERALLY
ACCEPTED.

LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY
NOT MUCH CHANGE FOR THE LONG TERM. ZONAL UPPER LEVEL FLOW WILL
PREVAIL ACROSS THE NRN TIER STATES THROUGH THE PERIOD...WITH BROAD
UPPER LEVEL RIDGING ACROSS THE SOUTH CENTRAL AND SOUTHEASTERN CONUS.
AT THE SURFACE...LOW PRESSURE WILL BE PRESENT IN THE CENTRAL AND
HIGH PLAINS WITH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE ANCHORED IN THE CAROLINAS
RESULTING IN SOUTHERLY FLOW ACROSS ARKANSAS THROUGH THE PERIOD.

OVERALL THE LONG TERM WILL PROBABLY BE DRY MOST OF THE TIME FOR MOST
LOCATIONS. HOWEVER HIGH PRESSURE OVERHEAD WILL NOT LIKELY BE STRONG
ENOUGH TO TOTALLY CAP THE ATMOSPHERE...THUS SOME AFTERNOON SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS MAY OCCUR EACH AFTERNOON. THE BEST CHANCES LOOK TO
BE ACROSS THE NORTH AND NORTHEAST PARTS OF THE FORECAST AREA ON
WEDNESDAY DUE TO PROXIMITY OF FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND WEAKENED UPPER
LEVEL RIDGING DUE TO WEAK UPPER TROUGH SWING BY TO THE NORTH TUESDAY
NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...KEPT POPS JUST LOW
ENOUGH TO PREVENT PRECIP WORDING FROM SHOWING UP IN THE FORECAST AS
UPPER RIDGING WEAKLY BUILDS OVERHEAD...BUT RAIN CHANCES WILL NOT BE
ZERO. TEMPERATURES WILL BE CLOSE TO SEASONAL VALUES THROUGH THE
PERIOD...EXCEPT A LITTLE BELOW NORMAL IN THE NORTH EARLY ON DUE TO
RAIN CHANCES AND CLOUD COVER.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BATESVILLE AR     85  73  91  74 /  60  50  20  10
CAMDEN AR         86  74  93  75 /  60  60  20  10
HARRISON AR       85  72  90  73 /  60  30  10  10
HOT SPRINGS AR    87  74  92  74 /  50  40  10  10
LITTLE ROCK   AR  86  74  91  74 /  60  50  20  10
MONTICELLO AR     85  75  92  75 / 100  70  40  10
MOUNT IDA AR      88  74  92  74 /  50  40  10  10
MOUNTAIN HOME AR  85  72  90  73 /  60  40  10  10
NEWPORT AR        85  74  90  74 /  60  60  30  10
PINE BLUFF AR     86  74  91  75 /  80  60  30  10
RUSSELLVILLE AR   87  73  91  74 /  50  40  10  10
SEARCY AR         85  74  91  74 /  60  60  30  10
STUTTGART AR      85  74  91  75 /  70  60  30  10
&&

.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&

$$

51





000
FXUS64 KLZK 300821
AFDLZK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
319 AM CDT SAT AUG 30 2014

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT
SENSIBLE WEATHER WILL REMAIN A BIT ON THE UNSETTLED SIDE THROUGH THE
HOLIDAY WEEKEND AND BEYOND BUT NO COMPLETE WASHOUTS ARE EXPECTED
ANYWHERE IN THE COUNTY WARNING AREA. MODELS ARE IN DECENT ENOUGH
AGREEMENT THIS MORNING THAT A BLEND OF GFS/ECMWF SOLUTIONS WILL BE
USED WITH A LEAN TOWARDS THE MORE CONSISTENT ECMWF.

UPPER PATTERN REMAINS CHARACTERIZED BY HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OFF
THE SOUTHERN CALIFORNIAN COAST AND OFF THE OUTER BANKS OF NORTH
CAROLINA. IN BETWEEN IS TROUGHING EXTENDING FROM THE WESTERN LAKES
ALL THE WAY DOWN TO THE GULF COAST. PATTERN WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY
DAMPEN WITH TIME INTO A BROAD CYCLONIC FLOW COVERING THE NORTHERN
HALF OF THE COUNTY AND BROAD RIDGING OVER THE SOUTH.

MOISTURE CHANNEL IMAGERY IS SHOWING ONE DISTINCT AND ONE WEAKER
CIRCULATION IN THE WESTERN GULF. THESE FEATURES WILL KEEP A STEADY
SUPPLY OF MOISTURE FEEDING INTO THE TROUGH WITH PWATS IN EXCESS OF
1.5 INCHES. SCATTERED PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TODAY AS THE TROUGH
MOVES EAST WITH BETTER CHANCES OVER THE EAST AND SOUTHEAST AS ONE OF
THE AFOREMENTIONED GULF CIRCULATIONS MOVES EAST OF THE ADVANCING
TROUGH. PWATS INCREASE TO IN EXCESS OF TWO INCHES OVER THE EAST AS
THE DAY PROGRESSES.

COME SUNDAY...BEST MOISTURE AND DYNAMICS ARE PULLED NORTH INTO THE
OHIO VALLEY WITH LINGERING PRECIPITATION CHANCES ENDING FROM
NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST AS THE DAY PROGRESSES. A COLD FRONT WILL
BEGIN TO APPROACH THE NORTHERN PART OF THE STATE MONDAY AFTERNOON
BUT ONLY SCATTERED POPS WILL BE JUSTIFIED ALONG THE MISSOURI BORDER.
FRONT DOES WORK ITS WAY INTO THE NORTHERN PART OF THE STATE MONDAY
NIGHT AND INTO TUESDAY BEFORE WASHING OUT SOMEWHAT. HOWEVER...POPS
WILL NEED TO BE CARRIED MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
PERIOD.

CONCERNING TEMPERATURES...COOLEST DAY OF THE PERIOD WILL BE TODAY
WITH THE INCREASED CLOUD COVER AND PRECIPITATION IN THE AREA. BROAD
UPPER RIDGE BEGINS TO GET REESTABLISHED OVER THE SOUTHERN PART OF
THE NATION BUT IN A MUCH WEAKER FORM THAT LAST WEEK. AS A RESULT...
TEMPS WILL WARM BACK INTO THE 90S FOR MOST AREAS WITH THE EXCEPTION
OF THE NORTH WHERE IT WILL BE COOLER THANKS TO THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY
IN THE AREA. MAV/MEX NUMBERS LOOK REASONABLE AND ARE GENERALLY
ACCEPTED.
&&

.LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY
NOT MUCH CHANGE FOR THE LONG TERM. ZONAL UPPER LEVEL FLOW WILL
PREVAIL ACROSS THE NRN TIER STATES THROUGH THE PERIOD...WITH BROAD
UPPER LEVEL RIDGING ACROSS THE SOUTH CENTRAL AND SOUTHEASTERN CONUS.
AT THE SURFACE...LOW PRESSURE WILL BE PRESENT IN THE CENTRAL AND
HIGH PLAINS WITH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE ANCHORED IN THE CAROLINAS
RESULTING IN SOUTHERLY FLOW ACROSS ARKANSAS THROUGH THE PERIOD.

OVERALL THE LONG TERM WILL PROBABLY BE DRY MOST OF THE TIME FOR MOST
LOCATIONS. HOWEVER HIGH PRESSURE OVERHEAD WILL NOT LIKELY BE STRONG
ENOUGH TO TOTALLY CAP THE ATMOSPHERE...THUS SOME AFTERNOON SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS MAY OCCUR EACH AFTERNOON. THE BEST CHANCES LOOK TO
BE ACROSS THE NORTH AND NORTHEAST PARTS OF THE FORECAST AREA ON
WEDNESDAY DUE TO PROXIMITY OF FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND WEAKENED UPPER
LEVEL RIDGING DUE TO WEAK UPPER TROUGH SWING BY TO THE NORTH TUESDAY
NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...KEPT POPS JUST LOW
ENOUGH TO PREVENT PRECIP WORDING FROM SHOWING UP IN THE FORECAST AS
UPPER RIDGING WEAKLY BUILDS OVERHEAD...BUT RAIN CHANCES WILL NOT BE
ZERO. TEMPERATURES WILL BE CLOSE TO SEASONAL VALUES THROUGH THE
PERIOD...EXCEPT A LITTLE BELOW NORMAL IN THE NORTH EARLY ON DUE TO
RAIN CHANCES AND CLOUD COVER.
&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BATESVILLE AR     86  72  91  72 /  60  50  20  10
CAMDEN AR         85  72  93  73 /  60  50  20  10
HARRISON AR       85  70  90  71 /  40  30  10  10
HOT SPRINGS AR    87  72  92  72 /  50  40  10  10
LITTLE ROCK   AR  85  72  91  72 /  60  50  20  10
MONTICELLO AR     85  73  92  73 /  70  60  40  10
MOUNT IDA AR      88  72  92  72 /  50  30  10  10
MOUNTAIN HOME AR  86  70  90  71 /  50  40  10  10
NEWPORT AR        85  72  90  72 /  60  50  30  10
PINE BLUFF AR     84  73  91  73 /  60  50  30  10
RUSSELLVILLE AR   87  71  91  72 /  50  30  10  10
SEARCY AR         84  72  91  72 /  60  50  30  10
STUTTGART AR      84  73  91  73 /  60  60  30  10
&&

.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&

$$

56





000
FXUS64 KLZK 300821
AFDLZK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
319 AM CDT SAT AUG 30 2014

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT
SENSIBLE WEATHER WILL REMAIN A BIT ON THE UNSETTLED SIDE THROUGH THE
HOLIDAY WEEKEND AND BEYOND BUT NO COMPLETE WASHOUTS ARE EXPECTED
ANYWHERE IN THE COUNTY WARNING AREA. MODELS ARE IN DECENT ENOUGH
AGREEMENT THIS MORNING THAT A BLEND OF GFS/ECMWF SOLUTIONS WILL BE
USED WITH A LEAN TOWARDS THE MORE CONSISTENT ECMWF.

UPPER PATTERN REMAINS CHARACTERIZED BY HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OFF
THE SOUTHERN CALIFORNIAN COAST AND OFF THE OUTER BANKS OF NORTH
CAROLINA. IN BETWEEN IS TROUGHING EXTENDING FROM THE WESTERN LAKES
ALL THE WAY DOWN TO THE GULF COAST. PATTERN WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY
DAMPEN WITH TIME INTO A BROAD CYCLONIC FLOW COVERING THE NORTHERN
HALF OF THE COUNTY AND BROAD RIDGING OVER THE SOUTH.

MOISTURE CHANNEL IMAGERY IS SHOWING ONE DISTINCT AND ONE WEAKER
CIRCULATION IN THE WESTERN GULF. THESE FEATURES WILL KEEP A STEADY
SUPPLY OF MOISTURE FEEDING INTO THE TROUGH WITH PWATS IN EXCESS OF
1.5 INCHES. SCATTERED PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TODAY AS THE TROUGH
MOVES EAST WITH BETTER CHANCES OVER THE EAST AND SOUTHEAST AS ONE OF
THE AFOREMENTIONED GULF CIRCULATIONS MOVES EAST OF THE ADVANCING
TROUGH. PWATS INCREASE TO IN EXCESS OF TWO INCHES OVER THE EAST AS
THE DAY PROGRESSES.

COME SUNDAY...BEST MOISTURE AND DYNAMICS ARE PULLED NORTH INTO THE
OHIO VALLEY WITH LINGERING PRECIPITATION CHANCES ENDING FROM
NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST AS THE DAY PROGRESSES. A COLD FRONT WILL
BEGIN TO APPROACH THE NORTHERN PART OF THE STATE MONDAY AFTERNOON
BUT ONLY SCATTERED POPS WILL BE JUSTIFIED ALONG THE MISSOURI BORDER.
FRONT DOES WORK ITS WAY INTO THE NORTHERN PART OF THE STATE MONDAY
NIGHT AND INTO TUESDAY BEFORE WASHING OUT SOMEWHAT. HOWEVER...POPS
WILL NEED TO BE CARRIED MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
PERIOD.

CONCERNING TEMPERATURES...COOLEST DAY OF THE PERIOD WILL BE TODAY
WITH THE INCREASED CLOUD COVER AND PRECIPITATION IN THE AREA. BROAD
UPPER RIDGE BEGINS TO GET REESTABLISHED OVER THE SOUTHERN PART OF
THE NATION BUT IN A MUCH WEAKER FORM THAT LAST WEEK. AS A RESULT...
TEMPS WILL WARM BACK INTO THE 90S FOR MOST AREAS WITH THE EXCEPTION
OF THE NORTH WHERE IT WILL BE COOLER THANKS TO THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY
IN THE AREA. MAV/MEX NUMBERS LOOK REASONABLE AND ARE GENERALLY
ACCEPTED.
&&

.LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY
NOT MUCH CHANGE FOR THE LONG TERM. ZONAL UPPER LEVEL FLOW WILL
PREVAIL ACROSS THE NRN TIER STATES THROUGH THE PERIOD...WITH BROAD
UPPER LEVEL RIDGING ACROSS THE SOUTH CENTRAL AND SOUTHEASTERN CONUS.
AT THE SURFACE...LOW PRESSURE WILL BE PRESENT IN THE CENTRAL AND
HIGH PLAINS WITH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE ANCHORED IN THE CAROLINAS
RESULTING IN SOUTHERLY FLOW ACROSS ARKANSAS THROUGH THE PERIOD.

OVERALL THE LONG TERM WILL PROBABLY BE DRY MOST OF THE TIME FOR MOST
LOCATIONS. HOWEVER HIGH PRESSURE OVERHEAD WILL NOT LIKELY BE STRONG
ENOUGH TO TOTALLY CAP THE ATMOSPHERE...THUS SOME AFTERNOON SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS MAY OCCUR EACH AFTERNOON. THE BEST CHANCES LOOK TO
BE ACROSS THE NORTH AND NORTHEAST PARTS OF THE FORECAST AREA ON
WEDNESDAY DUE TO PROXIMITY OF FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND WEAKENED UPPER
LEVEL RIDGING DUE TO WEAK UPPER TROUGH SWING BY TO THE NORTH TUESDAY
NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...KEPT POPS JUST LOW
ENOUGH TO PREVENT PRECIP WORDING FROM SHOWING UP IN THE FORECAST AS
UPPER RIDGING WEAKLY BUILDS OVERHEAD...BUT RAIN CHANCES WILL NOT BE
ZERO. TEMPERATURES WILL BE CLOSE TO SEASONAL VALUES THROUGH THE
PERIOD...EXCEPT A LITTLE BELOW NORMAL IN THE NORTH EARLY ON DUE TO
RAIN CHANCES AND CLOUD COVER.
&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BATESVILLE AR     86  72  91  72 /  60  50  20  10
CAMDEN AR         85  72  93  73 /  60  50  20  10
HARRISON AR       85  70  90  71 /  40  30  10  10
HOT SPRINGS AR    87  72  92  72 /  50  40  10  10
LITTLE ROCK   AR  85  72  91  72 /  60  50  20  10
MONTICELLO AR     85  73  92  73 /  70  60  40  10
MOUNT IDA AR      88  72  92  72 /  50  30  10  10
MOUNTAIN HOME AR  86  70  90  71 /  50  40  10  10
NEWPORT AR        85  72  90  72 /  60  50  30  10
PINE BLUFF AR     84  73  91  73 /  60  50  30  10
RUSSELLVILLE AR   87  71  91  72 /  50  30  10  10
SEARCY AR         84  72  91  72 /  60  50  30  10
STUTTGART AR      84  73  91  73 /  60  60  30  10
&&

.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&

$$

56






000
FXUS64 KLZK 300551 AAC
AFDLZK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
1251 AM CDT SAT AUG 30 2014

.DISCUSSION...

UPDATED FOR THE 06Z AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

&&

.AVIATION...

HAVE A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS IN THE NORTH AS OF 05Z THAT MAY AFFECT
KBPK OR POSSIBLY KHRO THROUGH 10Z. HOWEVER THE BIGGER CONCERN WILL
BE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SLATED TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE STATE BY
DAYBREAK. THE BEST CHANCES FOR CONVECTION TO AFFECT TERMINALS WILL
BE IN THE SOUTHEAST AND HAVE INCLUDED SOME TEMPO -TSRA CONDITIONS
AT KPBF AND KLLQ FROM 19Z-23Z. OTHERWISE CONVECTION SHOULD DEVELOP
AROUND 12Z-15Z ACROSS MUCH OF THE STATE...BECOMING FAIRLY
WIDESPREAD BY MIDDAY. AS SUCH...INCLUDED VCTS FOR ALL CENTRAL AND
SOUTHERN TERMINALS FROM 15Z ONWARD. ALTHOUGH THERE WILL BE BREAKS
IN CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY IT SHOULD BE STEADY ENOUGH TO LIVE VCTS IN
FOR SUCH A LONG TIME.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 910 PM CDT FRI AUG 29 2014/

DISCUSSION...

EVENING CONVECTION INITIALLY WAS OVER NW AR..BUT HAS TRANSITIONED TO
CENTRAL AND EASTERN AREAS THROUGH THE EVENING. IT IS ASSOCIATED WITH
AN UPPER LOW PRESSURE TROUGH...AND EMBEDDED ENERGY...WHILE GULF
MOISTURE MAKES IT INTO THE AREA. ALL CONVECTION HAS BEEN MOVING NE.
00Z KLZK SOUNDING DID HAVE SOME CONVECTION CONTAMINATION WITH A
PRECIP WATER VALUE OF 1.96 INCHES...BUT WITH SW FLOW...IT WOULD BE
AROUND 1.5 INCHES. SURFACE DEW POINT TEMPS WERE MAINLY IN THE 70S
STATE WIDE. OVERNIGHT FORECAST WILL HAVE A CHANCE OF CONVECTION...
WITH THE UPPER LIFT AND MOISTURE MOVING OVER THE AREA. LOWS WILL BE
FROM THE UPPER 60S TO MID 70S. SATURDAY REMAINS WET WITH ADDITIONAL
LIFT AND MOISTURE INTO AR. (59)


SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT

UPPER LOW PRESSURE IS OVER THE PLAINS THIS AFTERNOON WITH UPPER
RIDGES OVER THE SOUTHWEST AND SOUTHEAST. THIS UPPER TROUGH WILL MOVE
TO THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER SATURDAY AND TO THE EAST COAST SUNDAY.
UPPER HIGH PRESSURE WILL SPREAD ACROSS THE SOUTH SUNDAY AND MONDAY.

SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE
AREA THIS AFTERNOON. THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL IS IN THE NORTHWEST AND
SOUTHEAST. THESE STORMS ARE A RESULT OF A COLD FRONT IN THE PLAINS
WHICH WILL STALL THERE TONIGHT. RAIN CHANCES WILL CONTINUE TONIGHT
AND BECOME LIKELY AGAIN ON SATURDAY. WIDESPREAD SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
ARE NOT ANTICIPATED THOUGH THE STRONGER STORMS WILL PRODUCE GUSTY
WINDS AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN. CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
WILL DECREASE SUNDAY AFTERNOON AS THE SYSTEM MOVES EAST OF ARKANSAS.
A WEAK SHORT WAVE WILL MOVE THROUGH NORTHERN ARKANSAS MONDAY AND
BRING A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. EXPECT COOLER
TEMPERATURES SATURDAY WITH CLOUD COVER AND RAIN OVER THE AREA. ABOVE
NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED BY MONDAY ONCE AGAIN.

LONG TERM...TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY
HOT AND HUMID WEATHER WILL PREVAIL DURING THE EXTENDED TERM AS AN
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS ENTRENCHED ACROSS THE
AREA. DAILY HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL SOAR WELL INTO THE 90S ACROSS
MOST OF THE AREA EACH DAY.

SOUTHERLY SURFACE WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO BRING MOIST AIR ACROSS THE
REGION...AND SLIGHT CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE PRESENT
THROUGHOUT MUCH OF THE PERIOD.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BATESVILLE AR     84  72  88  74 /  60  50  30  20
CAMDEN AR         84  72  87  75 /  60  50  20  20
HARRISON AR       86  70  88  73 /  50  30  10  20
HOT SPRINGS AR    85  72  88  74 /  60  40  20  10
LITTLE ROCK   AR  85  72  87  74 /  60  50  20  10
MONTICELLO AR     86  73  86  75 /  70  60  30  20
MOUNT IDA AR      85  72  88  74 /  50  30  20  10
MOUNTAIN HOME AR  85  70  88  73 /  60  40  20  20
NEWPORT AR        84  72  87  74 /  60  60  30  20
PINE BLUFF AR     85  73  87  75 /  60  60  30  20
RUSSELLVILLE AR   85  71  88  74 /  50  30  20  10
SEARCY AR         84  72  87  74 /  60  50  30  10
STUTTGART AR      85  73  87  75 /  60  60  30  20
&&

.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&

$$


AVIATION...64







000
FXUS64 KLZK 300551 AAC
AFDLZK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
1251 AM CDT SAT AUG 30 2014

.DISCUSSION...

UPDATED FOR THE 06Z AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

&&

.AVIATION...

HAVE A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS IN THE NORTH AS OF 05Z THAT MAY AFFECT
KBPK OR POSSIBLY KHRO THROUGH 10Z. HOWEVER THE BIGGER CONCERN WILL
BE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SLATED TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE STATE BY
DAYBREAK. THE BEST CHANCES FOR CONVECTION TO AFFECT TERMINALS WILL
BE IN THE SOUTHEAST AND HAVE INCLUDED SOME TEMPO -TSRA CONDITIONS
AT KPBF AND KLLQ FROM 19Z-23Z. OTHERWISE CONVECTION SHOULD DEVELOP
AROUND 12Z-15Z ACROSS MUCH OF THE STATE...BECOMING FAIRLY
WIDESPREAD BY MIDDAY. AS SUCH...INCLUDED VCTS FOR ALL CENTRAL AND
SOUTHERN TERMINALS FROM 15Z ONWARD. ALTHOUGH THERE WILL BE BREAKS
IN CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY IT SHOULD BE STEADY ENOUGH TO LIVE VCTS IN
FOR SUCH A LONG TIME.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 910 PM CDT FRI AUG 29 2014/

DISCUSSION...

EVENING CONVECTION INITIALLY WAS OVER NW AR..BUT HAS TRANSITIONED TO
CENTRAL AND EASTERN AREAS THROUGH THE EVENING. IT IS ASSOCIATED WITH
AN UPPER LOW PRESSURE TROUGH...AND EMBEDDED ENERGY...WHILE GULF
MOISTURE MAKES IT INTO THE AREA. ALL CONVECTION HAS BEEN MOVING NE.
00Z KLZK SOUNDING DID HAVE SOME CONVECTION CONTAMINATION WITH A
PRECIP WATER VALUE OF 1.96 INCHES...BUT WITH SW FLOW...IT WOULD BE
AROUND 1.5 INCHES. SURFACE DEW POINT TEMPS WERE MAINLY IN THE 70S
STATE WIDE. OVERNIGHT FORECAST WILL HAVE A CHANCE OF CONVECTION...
WITH THE UPPER LIFT AND MOISTURE MOVING OVER THE AREA. LOWS WILL BE
FROM THE UPPER 60S TO MID 70S. SATURDAY REMAINS WET WITH ADDITIONAL
LIFT AND MOISTURE INTO AR. (59)


SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT

UPPER LOW PRESSURE IS OVER THE PLAINS THIS AFTERNOON WITH UPPER
RIDGES OVER THE SOUTHWEST AND SOUTHEAST. THIS UPPER TROUGH WILL MOVE
TO THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER SATURDAY AND TO THE EAST COAST SUNDAY.
UPPER HIGH PRESSURE WILL SPREAD ACROSS THE SOUTH SUNDAY AND MONDAY.

SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE
AREA THIS AFTERNOON. THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL IS IN THE NORTHWEST AND
SOUTHEAST. THESE STORMS ARE A RESULT OF A COLD FRONT IN THE PLAINS
WHICH WILL STALL THERE TONIGHT. RAIN CHANCES WILL CONTINUE TONIGHT
AND BECOME LIKELY AGAIN ON SATURDAY. WIDESPREAD SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
ARE NOT ANTICIPATED THOUGH THE STRONGER STORMS WILL PRODUCE GUSTY
WINDS AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN. CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
WILL DECREASE SUNDAY AFTERNOON AS THE SYSTEM MOVES EAST OF ARKANSAS.
A WEAK SHORT WAVE WILL MOVE THROUGH NORTHERN ARKANSAS MONDAY AND
BRING A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. EXPECT COOLER
TEMPERATURES SATURDAY WITH CLOUD COVER AND RAIN OVER THE AREA. ABOVE
NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED BY MONDAY ONCE AGAIN.

LONG TERM...TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY
HOT AND HUMID WEATHER WILL PREVAIL DURING THE EXTENDED TERM AS AN
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS ENTRENCHED ACROSS THE
AREA. DAILY HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL SOAR WELL INTO THE 90S ACROSS
MOST OF THE AREA EACH DAY.

SOUTHERLY SURFACE WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO BRING MOIST AIR ACROSS THE
REGION...AND SLIGHT CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE PRESENT
THROUGHOUT MUCH OF THE PERIOD.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BATESVILLE AR     84  72  88  74 /  60  50  30  20
CAMDEN AR         84  72  87  75 /  60  50  20  20
HARRISON AR       86  70  88  73 /  50  30  10  20
HOT SPRINGS AR    85  72  88  74 /  60  40  20  10
LITTLE ROCK   AR  85  72  87  74 /  60  50  20  10
MONTICELLO AR     86  73  86  75 /  70  60  30  20
MOUNT IDA AR      85  72  88  74 /  50  30  20  10
MOUNTAIN HOME AR  85  70  88  73 /  60  40  20  20
NEWPORT AR        84  72  87  74 /  60  60  30  20
PINE BLUFF AR     85  73  87  75 /  60  60  30  20
RUSSELLVILLE AR   85  71  88  74 /  50  30  20  10
SEARCY AR         84  72  87  74 /  60  50  30  10
STUTTGART AR      85  73  87  75 /  60  60  30  20
&&

.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&

$$


AVIATION...64







000
FXUS64 KLZK 300551 AAC
AFDLZK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
1251 AM CDT SAT AUG 30 2014

.DISCUSSION...

UPDATED FOR THE 06Z AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

&&

.AVIATION...

HAVE A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS IN THE NORTH AS OF 05Z THAT MAY AFFECT
KBPK OR POSSIBLY KHRO THROUGH 10Z. HOWEVER THE BIGGER CONCERN WILL
BE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SLATED TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE STATE BY
DAYBREAK. THE BEST CHANCES FOR CONVECTION TO AFFECT TERMINALS WILL
BE IN THE SOUTHEAST AND HAVE INCLUDED SOME TEMPO -TSRA CONDITIONS
AT KPBF AND KLLQ FROM 19Z-23Z. OTHERWISE CONVECTION SHOULD DEVELOP
AROUND 12Z-15Z ACROSS MUCH OF THE STATE...BECOMING FAIRLY
WIDESPREAD BY MIDDAY. AS SUCH...INCLUDED VCTS FOR ALL CENTRAL AND
SOUTHERN TERMINALS FROM 15Z ONWARD. ALTHOUGH THERE WILL BE BREAKS
IN CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY IT SHOULD BE STEADY ENOUGH TO LIVE VCTS IN
FOR SUCH A LONG TIME.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 910 PM CDT FRI AUG 29 2014/

DISCUSSION...

EVENING CONVECTION INITIALLY WAS OVER NW AR..BUT HAS TRANSITIONED TO
CENTRAL AND EASTERN AREAS THROUGH THE EVENING. IT IS ASSOCIATED WITH
AN UPPER LOW PRESSURE TROUGH...AND EMBEDDED ENERGY...WHILE GULF
MOISTURE MAKES IT INTO THE AREA. ALL CONVECTION HAS BEEN MOVING NE.
00Z KLZK SOUNDING DID HAVE SOME CONVECTION CONTAMINATION WITH A
PRECIP WATER VALUE OF 1.96 INCHES...BUT WITH SW FLOW...IT WOULD BE
AROUND 1.5 INCHES. SURFACE DEW POINT TEMPS WERE MAINLY IN THE 70S
STATE WIDE. OVERNIGHT FORECAST WILL HAVE A CHANCE OF CONVECTION...
WITH THE UPPER LIFT AND MOISTURE MOVING OVER THE AREA. LOWS WILL BE
FROM THE UPPER 60S TO MID 70S. SATURDAY REMAINS WET WITH ADDITIONAL
LIFT AND MOISTURE INTO AR. (59)


SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT

UPPER LOW PRESSURE IS OVER THE PLAINS THIS AFTERNOON WITH UPPER
RIDGES OVER THE SOUTHWEST AND SOUTHEAST. THIS UPPER TROUGH WILL MOVE
TO THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER SATURDAY AND TO THE EAST COAST SUNDAY.
UPPER HIGH PRESSURE WILL SPREAD ACROSS THE SOUTH SUNDAY AND MONDAY.

SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE
AREA THIS AFTERNOON. THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL IS IN THE NORTHWEST AND
SOUTHEAST. THESE STORMS ARE A RESULT OF A COLD FRONT IN THE PLAINS
WHICH WILL STALL THERE TONIGHT. RAIN CHANCES WILL CONTINUE TONIGHT
AND BECOME LIKELY AGAIN ON SATURDAY. WIDESPREAD SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
ARE NOT ANTICIPATED THOUGH THE STRONGER STORMS WILL PRODUCE GUSTY
WINDS AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN. CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
WILL DECREASE SUNDAY AFTERNOON AS THE SYSTEM MOVES EAST OF ARKANSAS.
A WEAK SHORT WAVE WILL MOVE THROUGH NORTHERN ARKANSAS MONDAY AND
BRING A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. EXPECT COOLER
TEMPERATURES SATURDAY WITH CLOUD COVER AND RAIN OVER THE AREA. ABOVE
NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED BY MONDAY ONCE AGAIN.

LONG TERM...TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY
HOT AND HUMID WEATHER WILL PREVAIL DURING THE EXTENDED TERM AS AN
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS ENTRENCHED ACROSS THE
AREA. DAILY HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL SOAR WELL INTO THE 90S ACROSS
MOST OF THE AREA EACH DAY.

SOUTHERLY SURFACE WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO BRING MOIST AIR ACROSS THE
REGION...AND SLIGHT CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE PRESENT
THROUGHOUT MUCH OF THE PERIOD.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BATESVILLE AR     84  72  88  74 /  60  50  30  20
CAMDEN AR         84  72  87  75 /  60  50  20  20
HARRISON AR       86  70  88  73 /  50  30  10  20
HOT SPRINGS AR    85  72  88  74 /  60  40  20  10
LITTLE ROCK   AR  85  72  87  74 /  60  50  20  10
MONTICELLO AR     86  73  86  75 /  70  60  30  20
MOUNT IDA AR      85  72  88  74 /  50  30  20  10
MOUNTAIN HOME AR  85  70  88  73 /  60  40  20  20
NEWPORT AR        84  72  87  74 /  60  60  30  20
PINE BLUFF AR     85  73  87  75 /  60  60  30  20
RUSSELLVILLE AR   85  71  88  74 /  50  30  20  10
SEARCY AR         84  72  87  74 /  60  50  30  10
STUTTGART AR      85  73  87  75 /  60  60  30  20
&&

.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&

$$


AVIATION...64







000
FXUS64 KLZK 300551 AAC
AFDLZK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
1251 AM CDT SAT AUG 30 2014

.DISCUSSION...

UPDATED FOR THE 06Z AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

&&

.AVIATION...

HAVE A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS IN THE NORTH AS OF 05Z THAT MAY AFFECT
KBPK OR POSSIBLY KHRO THROUGH 10Z. HOWEVER THE BIGGER CONCERN WILL
BE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SLATED TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE STATE BY
DAYBREAK. THE BEST CHANCES FOR CONVECTION TO AFFECT TERMINALS WILL
BE IN THE SOUTHEAST AND HAVE INCLUDED SOME TEMPO -TSRA CONDITIONS
AT KPBF AND KLLQ FROM 19Z-23Z. OTHERWISE CONVECTION SHOULD DEVELOP
AROUND 12Z-15Z ACROSS MUCH OF THE STATE...BECOMING FAIRLY
WIDESPREAD BY MIDDAY. AS SUCH...INCLUDED VCTS FOR ALL CENTRAL AND
SOUTHERN TERMINALS FROM 15Z ONWARD. ALTHOUGH THERE WILL BE BREAKS
IN CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY IT SHOULD BE STEADY ENOUGH TO LIVE VCTS IN
FOR SUCH A LONG TIME.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 910 PM CDT FRI AUG 29 2014/

DISCUSSION...

EVENING CONVECTION INITIALLY WAS OVER NW AR..BUT HAS TRANSITIONED TO
CENTRAL AND EASTERN AREAS THROUGH THE EVENING. IT IS ASSOCIATED WITH
AN UPPER LOW PRESSURE TROUGH...AND EMBEDDED ENERGY...WHILE GULF
MOISTURE MAKES IT INTO THE AREA. ALL CONVECTION HAS BEEN MOVING NE.
00Z KLZK SOUNDING DID HAVE SOME CONVECTION CONTAMINATION WITH A
PRECIP WATER VALUE OF 1.96 INCHES...BUT WITH SW FLOW...IT WOULD BE
AROUND 1.5 INCHES. SURFACE DEW POINT TEMPS WERE MAINLY IN THE 70S
STATE WIDE. OVERNIGHT FORECAST WILL HAVE A CHANCE OF CONVECTION...
WITH THE UPPER LIFT AND MOISTURE MOVING OVER THE AREA. LOWS WILL BE
FROM THE UPPER 60S TO MID 70S. SATURDAY REMAINS WET WITH ADDITIONAL
LIFT AND MOISTURE INTO AR. (59)


SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT

UPPER LOW PRESSURE IS OVER THE PLAINS THIS AFTERNOON WITH UPPER
RIDGES OVER THE SOUTHWEST AND SOUTHEAST. THIS UPPER TROUGH WILL MOVE
TO THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER SATURDAY AND TO THE EAST COAST SUNDAY.
UPPER HIGH PRESSURE WILL SPREAD ACROSS THE SOUTH SUNDAY AND MONDAY.

SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE
AREA THIS AFTERNOON. THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL IS IN THE NORTHWEST AND
SOUTHEAST. THESE STORMS ARE A RESULT OF A COLD FRONT IN THE PLAINS
WHICH WILL STALL THERE TONIGHT. RAIN CHANCES WILL CONTINUE TONIGHT
AND BECOME LIKELY AGAIN ON SATURDAY. WIDESPREAD SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
ARE NOT ANTICIPATED THOUGH THE STRONGER STORMS WILL PRODUCE GUSTY
WINDS AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN. CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
WILL DECREASE SUNDAY AFTERNOON AS THE SYSTEM MOVES EAST OF ARKANSAS.
A WEAK SHORT WAVE WILL MOVE THROUGH NORTHERN ARKANSAS MONDAY AND
BRING A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. EXPECT COOLER
TEMPERATURES SATURDAY WITH CLOUD COVER AND RAIN OVER THE AREA. ABOVE
NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED BY MONDAY ONCE AGAIN.

LONG TERM...TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY
HOT AND HUMID WEATHER WILL PREVAIL DURING THE EXTENDED TERM AS AN
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS ENTRENCHED ACROSS THE
AREA. DAILY HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL SOAR WELL INTO THE 90S ACROSS
MOST OF THE AREA EACH DAY.

SOUTHERLY SURFACE WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO BRING MOIST AIR ACROSS THE
REGION...AND SLIGHT CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE PRESENT
THROUGHOUT MUCH OF THE PERIOD.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BATESVILLE AR     84  72  88  74 /  60  50  30  20
CAMDEN AR         84  72  87  75 /  60  50  20  20
HARRISON AR       86  70  88  73 /  50  30  10  20
HOT SPRINGS AR    85  72  88  74 /  60  40  20  10
LITTLE ROCK   AR  85  72  87  74 /  60  50  20  10
MONTICELLO AR     86  73  86  75 /  70  60  30  20
MOUNT IDA AR      85  72  88  74 /  50  30  20  10
MOUNTAIN HOME AR  85  70  88  73 /  60  40  20  20
NEWPORT AR        84  72  87  74 /  60  60  30  20
PINE BLUFF AR     85  73  87  75 /  60  60  30  20
RUSSELLVILLE AR   85  71  88  74 /  50  30  20  10
SEARCY AR         84  72  87  74 /  60  50  30  10
STUTTGART AR      85  73  87  75 /  60  60  30  20
&&

.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&

$$


AVIATION...64







000
FXUS64 KLZK 300208 AAB
AFDLZK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
910 PM CDT FRI AUG 29 2014

.DISCUSSION...

EVENING CONVECTION INITIALLY WAS OVER NW AR..BUT HAS TRANSITIONED TO
CENTRAL AND EASTERN AREAS THROUGH THE EVENING. IT IS ASSOCIATED WITH
AN UPPER LOW PRESSURE TROUGH...AND EMBEDDED ENERGY...WHILE GULF
MOISTURE MAKES IT INTO THE AREA. ALL CONVECTION HAS BEEN MOVING NE.
00Z KLZK SOUNDING DID HAVE SOME CONVECTION CONTAMINATION WITH A
PRECIP WATER VALUE OF 1.96 INCHES...BUT WITH SW FLOW...IT WOULD BE
AROUND 1.5 INCHES. SURFACE DEW POINT TEMPS WERE MAINLY IN THE 70S
STATE WIDE. OVERNIGHT FORECAST WILL HAVE A CHANCE OF CONVECTION...
WITH THE UPPER LIFT AND MOISTURE MOVING OVER THE AREA. LOWS WILL BE
FROM THE UPPER 60S TO MID 70S. SATURDAY REMAINS WET WITH ADDITIONAL
LIFT AND MOISTURE INTO AR. (59)

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 750 PM CDT FRI AUG 29 2014/

.AVIATION...

SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE
NIGHTTIME HOURS AND INTO SATURDAY. THE PRECIPITATION AREA WILL
SLOWLY SHIFT TOWARD THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER WITH TIME AS A STORM
SYSTEM ALOFT APPROACHES FROM THE PLAINS.

OUTSIDE OF WHERE PRECIPITATION IS OCCURRING...VFR CONDITIONS
ARE IN THE FORECAST. THERE WILL BE SOME SCATTERED LOW CLOUDS
AT 4000 TO 5000 FEET...WITH PLENTY OF MID/HIGH CLOUDS GIVEN
HIT AND MISS RAIN. THERE MAY BE A FEW PATCHES OF FOG OVERNIGHT
AND EARLY SATURDAY MORNING...WITH SPOTTY MVFR VISIBILITIES.

IN GENERAL...WINDS THROUGH SATURDAY WILL VARY FROM SOUTH TO
SOUTHWEST AT 4 TO 8 MPH. (46)
&&

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT

UPPER LOW PRESSURE IS OVER THE PLAINS THIS AFTERNOON WITH UPPER
RIDGES OVER THE SOUTHWEST AND SOUTHEAST. THIS UPPER TROUGH WILL MOVE
TO THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER SATURDAY AND TO THE EAST COAST SUNDAY.
UPPER HIGH PRESSURE WILL SPREAD ACROSS THE SOUTH SUNDAY AND MONDAY.

SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE
AREA THIS AFTERNOON. THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL IS IN THE NORTHWEST AND
SOUTHEAST. THESE STORMS ARE A RESULT OF A COLD FRONT IN THE PLAINS
WHICH WILL STALL THERE TONIGHT. RAIN CHANCES WILL CONTINUE TONIGHT
AND BECOME LIKELY AGAIN ON SATURDAY. WIDESPREAD SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
ARE NOT ANTICIPATED THOUGH THE STRONGER STORMS WILL PRODUCE GUSTY
WINDS AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN. CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
WILL DECREASE SUNDAY AFTERNOON AS THE SYSTEM MOVES EAST OF ARKANSAS.
A WEAK SHORT WAVE WILL MOVE THROUGH NORTHERN ARKANSAS MONDAY AND
BRING A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. EXPECT COOLER
TEMPERATURES SATURDAY WITH CLOUD COVER AND RAIN OVER THE AREA. ABOVE
NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED BY MONDAY ONCE AGAIN.

&&

.LONG TERM...TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY
HOT AND HUMID WEATHER WILL PREVAIL DURING THE EXTENDED TERM AS AN
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS ENTRENCHED ACROSS THE
AREA. DAILY HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL SOAR WELL INTO THE 90S ACROSS
MOST OF THE AREA EACH DAY.

SOUTHERLY SURFACE WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO BRING MOIST AIR ACROSS THE
REGION...AND SLIGHT CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE PRESENT
THROUGHOUT MUCH OF THE PERIOD.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BATESVILLE AR     72  84  72  88 /  60  60  50  30
CAMDEN AR         74  84  72  87 /  50  60  50  20
HARRISON AR       71  86  70  88 /  60  50  30  10
HOT SPRINGS AR    74  85  72  88 /  60  60  40  20
LITTLE ROCK   AR  73  84  72  87 /  50  60  50  20
MONTICELLO AR     74  86  73  86 /  50  70  60  30
MOUNT IDA AR      75  85  72  88 /  60  50  30  20
MOUNTAIN HOME AR  72  85  70  88 /  60  60  40  20
NEWPORT AR        72  84  72  87 /  50  70  60  30
PINE BLUFF AR     74  85  73  87 /  50  70  60  30
RUSSELLVILLE AR   73  85  71  88 /  60  50  30  20
SEARCY AR         73  84  72  87 /  50  60  50  30
STUTTGART AR      73  85  73  87 /  50  70  60  30
&&

.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...51 / LONG TERM...53






000
FXUS64 KLZK 300208 AAB
AFDLZK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
910 PM CDT FRI AUG 29 2014

.DISCUSSION...

EVENING CONVECTION INITIALLY WAS OVER NW AR..BUT HAS TRANSITIONED TO
CENTRAL AND EASTERN AREAS THROUGH THE EVENING. IT IS ASSOCIATED WITH
AN UPPER LOW PRESSURE TROUGH...AND EMBEDDED ENERGY...WHILE GULF
MOISTURE MAKES IT INTO THE AREA. ALL CONVECTION HAS BEEN MOVING NE.
00Z KLZK SOUNDING DID HAVE SOME CONVECTION CONTAMINATION WITH A
PRECIP WATER VALUE OF 1.96 INCHES...BUT WITH SW FLOW...IT WOULD BE
AROUND 1.5 INCHES. SURFACE DEW POINT TEMPS WERE MAINLY IN THE 70S
STATE WIDE. OVERNIGHT FORECAST WILL HAVE A CHANCE OF CONVECTION...
WITH THE UPPER LIFT AND MOISTURE MOVING OVER THE AREA. LOWS WILL BE
FROM THE UPPER 60S TO MID 70S. SATURDAY REMAINS WET WITH ADDITIONAL
LIFT AND MOISTURE INTO AR. (59)

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 750 PM CDT FRI AUG 29 2014/

.AVIATION...

SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE
NIGHTTIME HOURS AND INTO SATURDAY. THE PRECIPITATION AREA WILL
SLOWLY SHIFT TOWARD THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER WITH TIME AS A STORM
SYSTEM ALOFT APPROACHES FROM THE PLAINS.

OUTSIDE OF WHERE PRECIPITATION IS OCCURRING...VFR CONDITIONS
ARE IN THE FORECAST. THERE WILL BE SOME SCATTERED LOW CLOUDS
AT 4000 TO 5000 FEET...WITH PLENTY OF MID/HIGH CLOUDS GIVEN
HIT AND MISS RAIN. THERE MAY BE A FEW PATCHES OF FOG OVERNIGHT
AND EARLY SATURDAY MORNING...WITH SPOTTY MVFR VISIBILITIES.

IN GENERAL...WINDS THROUGH SATURDAY WILL VARY FROM SOUTH TO
SOUTHWEST AT 4 TO 8 MPH. (46)
&&

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT

UPPER LOW PRESSURE IS OVER THE PLAINS THIS AFTERNOON WITH UPPER
RIDGES OVER THE SOUTHWEST AND SOUTHEAST. THIS UPPER TROUGH WILL MOVE
TO THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER SATURDAY AND TO THE EAST COAST SUNDAY.
UPPER HIGH PRESSURE WILL SPREAD ACROSS THE SOUTH SUNDAY AND MONDAY.

SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE
AREA THIS AFTERNOON. THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL IS IN THE NORTHWEST AND
SOUTHEAST. THESE STORMS ARE A RESULT OF A COLD FRONT IN THE PLAINS
WHICH WILL STALL THERE TONIGHT. RAIN CHANCES WILL CONTINUE TONIGHT
AND BECOME LIKELY AGAIN ON SATURDAY. WIDESPREAD SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
ARE NOT ANTICIPATED THOUGH THE STRONGER STORMS WILL PRODUCE GUSTY
WINDS AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN. CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
WILL DECREASE SUNDAY AFTERNOON AS THE SYSTEM MOVES EAST OF ARKANSAS.
A WEAK SHORT WAVE WILL MOVE THROUGH NORTHERN ARKANSAS MONDAY AND
BRING A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. EXPECT COOLER
TEMPERATURES SATURDAY WITH CLOUD COVER AND RAIN OVER THE AREA. ABOVE
NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED BY MONDAY ONCE AGAIN.

&&

.LONG TERM...TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY
HOT AND HUMID WEATHER WILL PREVAIL DURING THE EXTENDED TERM AS AN
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS ENTRENCHED ACROSS THE
AREA. DAILY HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL SOAR WELL INTO THE 90S ACROSS
MOST OF THE AREA EACH DAY.

SOUTHERLY SURFACE WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO BRING MOIST AIR ACROSS THE
REGION...AND SLIGHT CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE PRESENT
THROUGHOUT MUCH OF THE PERIOD.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BATESVILLE AR     72  84  72  88 /  60  60  50  30
CAMDEN AR         74  84  72  87 /  50  60  50  20
HARRISON AR       71  86  70  88 /  60  50  30  10
HOT SPRINGS AR    74  85  72  88 /  60  60  40  20
LITTLE ROCK   AR  73  84  72  87 /  50  60  50  20
MONTICELLO AR     74  86  73  86 /  50  70  60  30
MOUNT IDA AR      75  85  72  88 /  60  50  30  20
MOUNTAIN HOME AR  72  85  70  88 /  60  60  40  20
NEWPORT AR        72  84  72  87 /  50  70  60  30
PINE BLUFF AR     74  85  73  87 /  50  70  60  30
RUSSELLVILLE AR   73  85  71  88 /  60  50  30  20
SEARCY AR         73  84  72  87 /  50  60  50  30
STUTTGART AR      73  85  73  87 /  50  70  60  30
&&

.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...51 / LONG TERM...53






000
FXUS64 KLZK 300208 AAB
AFDLZK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
910 PM CDT FRI AUG 29 2014

.DISCUSSION...

EVENING CONVECTION INITIALLY WAS OVER NW AR..BUT HAS TRANSITIONED TO
CENTRAL AND EASTERN AREAS THROUGH THE EVENING. IT IS ASSOCIATED WITH
AN UPPER LOW PRESSURE TROUGH...AND EMBEDDED ENERGY...WHILE GULF
MOISTURE MAKES IT INTO THE AREA. ALL CONVECTION HAS BEEN MOVING NE.
00Z KLZK SOUNDING DID HAVE SOME CONVECTION CONTAMINATION WITH A
PRECIP WATER VALUE OF 1.96 INCHES...BUT WITH SW FLOW...IT WOULD BE
AROUND 1.5 INCHES. SURFACE DEW POINT TEMPS WERE MAINLY IN THE 70S
STATE WIDE. OVERNIGHT FORECAST WILL HAVE A CHANCE OF CONVECTION...
WITH THE UPPER LIFT AND MOISTURE MOVING OVER THE AREA. LOWS WILL BE
FROM THE UPPER 60S TO MID 70S. SATURDAY REMAINS WET WITH ADDITIONAL
LIFT AND MOISTURE INTO AR. (59)

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 750 PM CDT FRI AUG 29 2014/

.AVIATION...

SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE
NIGHTTIME HOURS AND INTO SATURDAY. THE PRECIPITATION AREA WILL
SLOWLY SHIFT TOWARD THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER WITH TIME AS A STORM
SYSTEM ALOFT APPROACHES FROM THE PLAINS.

OUTSIDE OF WHERE PRECIPITATION IS OCCURRING...VFR CONDITIONS
ARE IN THE FORECAST. THERE WILL BE SOME SCATTERED LOW CLOUDS
AT 4000 TO 5000 FEET...WITH PLENTY OF MID/HIGH CLOUDS GIVEN
HIT AND MISS RAIN. THERE MAY BE A FEW PATCHES OF FOG OVERNIGHT
AND EARLY SATURDAY MORNING...WITH SPOTTY MVFR VISIBILITIES.

IN GENERAL...WINDS THROUGH SATURDAY WILL VARY FROM SOUTH TO
SOUTHWEST AT 4 TO 8 MPH. (46)
&&

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT

UPPER LOW PRESSURE IS OVER THE PLAINS THIS AFTERNOON WITH UPPER
RIDGES OVER THE SOUTHWEST AND SOUTHEAST. THIS UPPER TROUGH WILL MOVE
TO THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER SATURDAY AND TO THE EAST COAST SUNDAY.
UPPER HIGH PRESSURE WILL SPREAD ACROSS THE SOUTH SUNDAY AND MONDAY.

SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE
AREA THIS AFTERNOON. THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL IS IN THE NORTHWEST AND
SOUTHEAST. THESE STORMS ARE A RESULT OF A COLD FRONT IN THE PLAINS
WHICH WILL STALL THERE TONIGHT. RAIN CHANCES WILL CONTINUE TONIGHT
AND BECOME LIKELY AGAIN ON SATURDAY. WIDESPREAD SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
ARE NOT ANTICIPATED THOUGH THE STRONGER STORMS WILL PRODUCE GUSTY
WINDS AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN. CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
WILL DECREASE SUNDAY AFTERNOON AS THE SYSTEM MOVES EAST OF ARKANSAS.
A WEAK SHORT WAVE WILL MOVE THROUGH NORTHERN ARKANSAS MONDAY AND
BRING A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. EXPECT COOLER
TEMPERATURES SATURDAY WITH CLOUD COVER AND RAIN OVER THE AREA. ABOVE
NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED BY MONDAY ONCE AGAIN.

&&

.LONG TERM...TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY
HOT AND HUMID WEATHER WILL PREVAIL DURING THE EXTENDED TERM AS AN
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS ENTRENCHED ACROSS THE
AREA. DAILY HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL SOAR WELL INTO THE 90S ACROSS
MOST OF THE AREA EACH DAY.

SOUTHERLY SURFACE WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO BRING MOIST AIR ACROSS THE
REGION...AND SLIGHT CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE PRESENT
THROUGHOUT MUCH OF THE PERIOD.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BATESVILLE AR     72  84  72  88 /  60  60  50  30
CAMDEN AR         74  84  72  87 /  50  60  50  20
HARRISON AR       71  86  70  88 /  60  50  30  10
HOT SPRINGS AR    74  85  72  88 /  60  60  40  20
LITTLE ROCK   AR  73  84  72  87 /  50  60  50  20
MONTICELLO AR     74  86  73  86 /  50  70  60  30
MOUNT IDA AR      75  85  72  88 /  60  50  30  20
MOUNTAIN HOME AR  72  85  70  88 /  60  60  40  20
NEWPORT AR        72  84  72  87 /  50  70  60  30
PINE BLUFF AR     74  85  73  87 /  50  70  60  30
RUSSELLVILLE AR   73  85  71  88 /  60  50  30  20
SEARCY AR         73  84  72  87 /  50  60  50  30
STUTTGART AR      73  85  73  87 /  50  70  60  30
&&

.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...51 / LONG TERM...53






000
FXUS64 KLZK 300208 AAB
AFDLZK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
910 PM CDT FRI AUG 29 2014

.DISCUSSION...

EVENING CONVECTION INITIALLY WAS OVER NW AR..BUT HAS TRANSITIONED TO
CENTRAL AND EASTERN AREAS THROUGH THE EVENING. IT IS ASSOCIATED WITH
AN UPPER LOW PRESSURE TROUGH...AND EMBEDDED ENERGY...WHILE GULF
MOISTURE MAKES IT INTO THE AREA. ALL CONVECTION HAS BEEN MOVING NE.
00Z KLZK SOUNDING DID HAVE SOME CONVECTION CONTAMINATION WITH A
PRECIP WATER VALUE OF 1.96 INCHES...BUT WITH SW FLOW...IT WOULD BE
AROUND 1.5 INCHES. SURFACE DEW POINT TEMPS WERE MAINLY IN THE 70S
STATE WIDE. OVERNIGHT FORECAST WILL HAVE A CHANCE OF CONVECTION...
WITH THE UPPER LIFT AND MOISTURE MOVING OVER THE AREA. LOWS WILL BE
FROM THE UPPER 60S TO MID 70S. SATURDAY REMAINS WET WITH ADDITIONAL
LIFT AND MOISTURE INTO AR. (59)

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 750 PM CDT FRI AUG 29 2014/

.AVIATION...

SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE
NIGHTTIME HOURS AND INTO SATURDAY. THE PRECIPITATION AREA WILL
SLOWLY SHIFT TOWARD THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER WITH TIME AS A STORM
SYSTEM ALOFT APPROACHES FROM THE PLAINS.

OUTSIDE OF WHERE PRECIPITATION IS OCCURRING...VFR CONDITIONS
ARE IN THE FORECAST. THERE WILL BE SOME SCATTERED LOW CLOUDS
AT 4000 TO 5000 FEET...WITH PLENTY OF MID/HIGH CLOUDS GIVEN
HIT AND MISS RAIN. THERE MAY BE A FEW PATCHES OF FOG OVERNIGHT
AND EARLY SATURDAY MORNING...WITH SPOTTY MVFR VISIBILITIES.

IN GENERAL...WINDS THROUGH SATURDAY WILL VARY FROM SOUTH TO
SOUTHWEST AT 4 TO 8 MPH. (46)
&&

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT

UPPER LOW PRESSURE IS OVER THE PLAINS THIS AFTERNOON WITH UPPER
RIDGES OVER THE SOUTHWEST AND SOUTHEAST. THIS UPPER TROUGH WILL MOVE
TO THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER SATURDAY AND TO THE EAST COAST SUNDAY.
UPPER HIGH PRESSURE WILL SPREAD ACROSS THE SOUTH SUNDAY AND MONDAY.

SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE
AREA THIS AFTERNOON. THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL IS IN THE NORTHWEST AND
SOUTHEAST. THESE STORMS ARE A RESULT OF A COLD FRONT IN THE PLAINS
WHICH WILL STALL THERE TONIGHT. RAIN CHANCES WILL CONTINUE TONIGHT
AND BECOME LIKELY AGAIN ON SATURDAY. WIDESPREAD SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
ARE NOT ANTICIPATED THOUGH THE STRONGER STORMS WILL PRODUCE GUSTY
WINDS AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN. CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
WILL DECREASE SUNDAY AFTERNOON AS THE SYSTEM MOVES EAST OF ARKANSAS.
A WEAK SHORT WAVE WILL MOVE THROUGH NORTHERN ARKANSAS MONDAY AND
BRING A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. EXPECT COOLER
TEMPERATURES SATURDAY WITH CLOUD COVER AND RAIN OVER THE AREA. ABOVE
NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED BY MONDAY ONCE AGAIN.

&&

.LONG TERM...TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY
HOT AND HUMID WEATHER WILL PREVAIL DURING THE EXTENDED TERM AS AN
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS ENTRENCHED ACROSS THE
AREA. DAILY HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL SOAR WELL INTO THE 90S ACROSS
MOST OF THE AREA EACH DAY.

SOUTHERLY SURFACE WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO BRING MOIST AIR ACROSS THE
REGION...AND SLIGHT CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE PRESENT
THROUGHOUT MUCH OF THE PERIOD.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BATESVILLE AR     72  84  72  88 /  60  60  50  30
CAMDEN AR         74  84  72  87 /  50  60  50  20
HARRISON AR       71  86  70  88 /  60  50  30  10
HOT SPRINGS AR    74  85  72  88 /  60  60  40  20
LITTLE ROCK   AR  73  84  72  87 /  50  60  50  20
MONTICELLO AR     74  86  73  86 /  50  70  60  30
MOUNT IDA AR      75  85  72  88 /  60  50  30  20
MOUNTAIN HOME AR  72  85  70  88 /  60  60  40  20
NEWPORT AR        72  84  72  87 /  50  70  60  30
PINE BLUFF AR     74  85  73  87 /  50  70  60  30
RUSSELLVILLE AR   73  85  71  88 /  60  50  30  20
SEARCY AR         73  84  72  87 /  50  60  50  30
STUTTGART AR      73  85  73  87 /  50  70  60  30
&&

.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...51 / LONG TERM...53






000
FXUS64 KLZK 300055 AAA
AFDLZK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR AVIATION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
750 PM CDT FRI AUG 29 2014

.AVIATION...

SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE
NIGHTTIME HOURS AND INTO SATURDAY. THE PRECIPITATION AREA WILL
SLOWLY SHIFT TOWARD THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER WITH TIME AS A STORM
SYSTEM ALOFT APPROACHES FROM THE PLAINS.

OUTSIDE OF WHERE PRECIPITATION IS OCCURRING...VFR CONDITIONS
ARE IN THE FORECAST. THERE WILL BE SOME SCATTERED LOW CLOUDS
AT 4000 TO 5000 FEET...WITH PLENTY OF MID/HIGH CLOUDS GIVEN
HIT AND MISS RAIN. THERE MAY BE A FEW PATCHES OF FOG OVERNIGHT
AND EARLY SATURDAY MORNING...WITH SPOTTY MVFR VISIBILITIES.

IN GENERAL...WINDS THROUGH SATURDAY WILL VARY FROM SOUTH TO
SOUTHWEST AT 4 TO 8 MPH. (46)
&&

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT

UPPER LOW PRESSURE IS OVER THE PLAINS THIS AFTERNOON WITH UPPER
RIDGES OVER THE SOUTHWEST AND SOUTHEAST. THIS UPPER TROUGH WILL MOVE
TO THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER SATURDAY AND TO THE EAST COAST SUNDAY.
UPPER HIGH PRESSURE WILL SPREAD ACROSS THE SOUTH SUNDAY AND MONDAY.

SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE
AREA THIS AFTERNOON. THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL IS IN THE NORTHWEST AND
SOUTHEAST. THESE STORMS ARE A RESULT OF A COLD FRONT IN THE PLAINS
WHICH WILL STALL THERE TONIGHT. RAIN CHANCES WILL CONTINUE TONIGHT
AND BECOME LIKELY AGAIN ON SATURDAY. WIDESPREAD SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
ARE NOT ANTICIPATED THOUGH THE STRONGER STORMS WILL PRODUCE GUSTY
WINDS AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN. CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
WILL DECREASE SUNDAY AFTERNOON AS THE SYSTEM MOVES EAST OF ARKANSAS.
A WEAK SHORT WAVE WILL MOVE THROUGH NORTHERN ARKANSAS MONDAY AND
BRING A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. EXPECT COOLER
TEMPERATURES SATURDAY WITH CLOUD COVER AND RAIN OVER THE AREA. ABOVE
NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED BY MONDAY ONCE AGAIN.

&&

.LONG TERM...TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY
HOT AND HUMID WEATHER WILL PREVAIL DURING THE EXTENDED TERM AS AN
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS ENTRENCHED ACROSS THE
AREA. DAILY HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL SOAR WELL INTO THE 90S ACROSS
MOST OF THE AREA EACH DAY.

SOUTHERLY SURFACE WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO BRING MOIST AIR ACROSS THE
REGION...AND SLIGHT CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE PRESENT
THROUGHOUT MUCH OF THE PERIOD.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BATESVILLE AR     72  84  72  88 /  60  60  50  30
CAMDEN AR         74  84  72  87 /  50  60  50  20
HARRISON AR       71  86  70  88 /  60  50  30  10
HOT SPRINGS AR    74  85  72  88 /  60  60  40  20
LITTLE ROCK   AR  73  84  72  87 /  50  60  50  20
MONTICELLO AR     74  86  73  86 /  50  70  60  30
MOUNT IDA AR      75  85  72  88 /  60  50  30  20
MOUNTAIN HOME AR  72  85  70  88 /  60  60  40  20
NEWPORT AR        72  84  72  87 /  50  70  60  30
PINE BLUFF AR     74  85  73  87 /  50  70  60  30
RUSSELLVILLE AR   73  85  71  88 /  60  50  30  20
SEARCY AR         73  84  72  87 /  50  60  50  30
STUTTGART AR      73  85  73  87 /  50  70  60  30
&&

.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...51 / LONG TERM...53








000
FXUS64 KLZK 300055 AAA
AFDLZK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR AVIATION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
750 PM CDT FRI AUG 29 2014

.AVIATION...

SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE
NIGHTTIME HOURS AND INTO SATURDAY. THE PRECIPITATION AREA WILL
SLOWLY SHIFT TOWARD THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER WITH TIME AS A STORM
SYSTEM ALOFT APPROACHES FROM THE PLAINS.

OUTSIDE OF WHERE PRECIPITATION IS OCCURRING...VFR CONDITIONS
ARE IN THE FORECAST. THERE WILL BE SOME SCATTERED LOW CLOUDS
AT 4000 TO 5000 FEET...WITH PLENTY OF MID/HIGH CLOUDS GIVEN
HIT AND MISS RAIN. THERE MAY BE A FEW PATCHES OF FOG OVERNIGHT
AND EARLY SATURDAY MORNING...WITH SPOTTY MVFR VISIBILITIES.

IN GENERAL...WINDS THROUGH SATURDAY WILL VARY FROM SOUTH TO
SOUTHWEST AT 4 TO 8 MPH. (46)
&&

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT

UPPER LOW PRESSURE IS OVER THE PLAINS THIS AFTERNOON WITH UPPER
RIDGES OVER THE SOUTHWEST AND SOUTHEAST. THIS UPPER TROUGH WILL MOVE
TO THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER SATURDAY AND TO THE EAST COAST SUNDAY.
UPPER HIGH PRESSURE WILL SPREAD ACROSS THE SOUTH SUNDAY AND MONDAY.

SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE
AREA THIS AFTERNOON. THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL IS IN THE NORTHWEST AND
SOUTHEAST. THESE STORMS ARE A RESULT OF A COLD FRONT IN THE PLAINS
WHICH WILL STALL THERE TONIGHT. RAIN CHANCES WILL CONTINUE TONIGHT
AND BECOME LIKELY AGAIN ON SATURDAY. WIDESPREAD SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
ARE NOT ANTICIPATED THOUGH THE STRONGER STORMS WILL PRODUCE GUSTY
WINDS AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN. CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
WILL DECREASE SUNDAY AFTERNOON AS THE SYSTEM MOVES EAST OF ARKANSAS.
A WEAK SHORT WAVE WILL MOVE THROUGH NORTHERN ARKANSAS MONDAY AND
BRING A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. EXPECT COOLER
TEMPERATURES SATURDAY WITH CLOUD COVER AND RAIN OVER THE AREA. ABOVE
NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED BY MONDAY ONCE AGAIN.

&&

.LONG TERM...TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY
HOT AND HUMID WEATHER WILL PREVAIL DURING THE EXTENDED TERM AS AN
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS ENTRENCHED ACROSS THE
AREA. DAILY HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL SOAR WELL INTO THE 90S ACROSS
MOST OF THE AREA EACH DAY.

SOUTHERLY SURFACE WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO BRING MOIST AIR ACROSS THE
REGION...AND SLIGHT CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE PRESENT
THROUGHOUT MUCH OF THE PERIOD.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BATESVILLE AR     72  84  72  88 /  60  60  50  30
CAMDEN AR         74  84  72  87 /  50  60  50  20
HARRISON AR       71  86  70  88 /  60  50  30  10
HOT SPRINGS AR    74  85  72  88 /  60  60  40  20
LITTLE ROCK   AR  73  84  72  87 /  50  60  50  20
MONTICELLO AR     74  86  73  86 /  50  70  60  30
MOUNT IDA AR      75  85  72  88 /  60  50  30  20
MOUNTAIN HOME AR  72  85  70  88 /  60  60  40  20
NEWPORT AR        72  84  72  87 /  50  70  60  30
PINE BLUFF AR     74  85  73  87 /  50  70  60  30
RUSSELLVILLE AR   73  85  71  88 /  60  50  30  20
SEARCY AR         73  84  72  87 /  50  60  50  30
STUTTGART AR      73  85  73  87 /  50  70  60  30
&&

.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...51 / LONG TERM...53









000
FXUS64 KLZK 291927
AFDLZK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
227 PM CDT FRI AUG 29 2014

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT

UPPER LOW PRESSURE IS OVER THE PLAINS THIS AFTERNOON WITH UPPER
RIDGES OVER THE SOUTHWEST AND SOUTHEAST. THIS UPPER TROUGH WILL MOVE
TO THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER SATURDAY AND TO THE EAST COAST SUNDAY.
UPPER HIGH PRESSURE WILL SPREAD ACROSS THE SOUTH SUNDAY AND MONDAY.

SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE
AREA THIS AFTERNOON. THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL IS IN THE NORTHWEST AND
SOUTHEAST. THESE STORMS ARE A RESULT OF A COLD FRONT IN THE PLAINS
WHICH WILL STALL THERE TONIGHT. RAIN CHANCES WILL CONTINUE TONIGHT
AND BECOME LIKELY AGAIN ON SATURDAY. WIDESPREAD SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
ARE NOT ANTICIPATED THOUGH THE STRONGER STORMS WILL PRODUCE GUSTY
WINDS AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN. CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
WILL DECREASE SUNDAY AFTERNOON AS THE SYSTEM MOVES EAST OF ARKANSAS.
A WEAK SHORT WAVE WILL MOVE THROUGH NORTHERN ARKANSAS MONDAY AND
BRING A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. EXPECT COOLER
TEMPERATURES SATURDAY WITH CLOUD COVER AND RAIN OVER THE AREA. ABOVE
NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED BY MONDAY ONCE AGAIN.

&&

.LONG TERM...TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY
HOT AND HUMID WEATHER WILL PREVAIL DURING THE EXTENDED TERM AS AN
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS ENTRENCHED ACROSS THE
AREA. DAILY HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL SOAR WELL INTO THE 90S ACROSS
MOST OF THE AREA EACH DAY.

SOUTHERLY SURFACE WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO BRING MOIST AIR ACROSS THE
REGION...AND SLIGHT CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE PRESENT
THROUGHOUT MUCH OF THE PERIOD.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BATESVILLE AR     72  84  72  88 /  60  60  50  30
CAMDEN AR         74  84  72  87 /  50  60  50  20
HARRISON AR       71  86  70  88 /  60  50  30  10
HOT SPRINGS AR    74  85  72  88 /  60  60  40  20
LITTLE ROCK   AR  73  84  72  87 /  50  60  50  20
MONTICELLO AR     74  86  73  86 /  50  70  60  30
MOUNT IDA AR      75  85  72  88 /  60  50  30  20
MOUNTAIN HOME AR  72  85  70  88 /  60  60  40  20
NEWPORT AR        72  84  72  87 /  50  70  60  30
PINE BLUFF AR     74  85  73  87 /  50  70  60  30
RUSSELLVILLE AR   73  85  71  88 /  60  50  30  20
SEARCY AR         73  84  72  87 /  50  60  50  30
STUTTGART AR      73  85  73  87 /  50  70  60  30
&&

.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...51 / LONG TERM...53






000
FXUS64 KLZK 291927
AFDLZK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
227 PM CDT FRI AUG 29 2014

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT

UPPER LOW PRESSURE IS OVER THE PLAINS THIS AFTERNOON WITH UPPER
RIDGES OVER THE SOUTHWEST AND SOUTHEAST. THIS UPPER TROUGH WILL MOVE
TO THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER SATURDAY AND TO THE EAST COAST SUNDAY.
UPPER HIGH PRESSURE WILL SPREAD ACROSS THE SOUTH SUNDAY AND MONDAY.

SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE
AREA THIS AFTERNOON. THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL IS IN THE NORTHWEST AND
SOUTHEAST. THESE STORMS ARE A RESULT OF A COLD FRONT IN THE PLAINS
WHICH WILL STALL THERE TONIGHT. RAIN CHANCES WILL CONTINUE TONIGHT
AND BECOME LIKELY AGAIN ON SATURDAY. WIDESPREAD SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
ARE NOT ANTICIPATED THOUGH THE STRONGER STORMS WILL PRODUCE GUSTY
WINDS AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN. CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
WILL DECREASE SUNDAY AFTERNOON AS THE SYSTEM MOVES EAST OF ARKANSAS.
A WEAK SHORT WAVE WILL MOVE THROUGH NORTHERN ARKANSAS MONDAY AND
BRING A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. EXPECT COOLER
TEMPERATURES SATURDAY WITH CLOUD COVER AND RAIN OVER THE AREA. ABOVE
NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED BY MONDAY ONCE AGAIN.

&&

.LONG TERM...TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY
HOT AND HUMID WEATHER WILL PREVAIL DURING THE EXTENDED TERM AS AN
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS ENTRENCHED ACROSS THE
AREA. DAILY HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL SOAR WELL INTO THE 90S ACROSS
MOST OF THE AREA EACH DAY.

SOUTHERLY SURFACE WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO BRING MOIST AIR ACROSS THE
REGION...AND SLIGHT CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE PRESENT
THROUGHOUT MUCH OF THE PERIOD.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BATESVILLE AR     72  84  72  88 /  60  60  50  30
CAMDEN AR         74  84  72  87 /  50  60  50  20
HARRISON AR       71  86  70  88 /  60  50  30  10
HOT SPRINGS AR    74  85  72  88 /  60  60  40  20
LITTLE ROCK   AR  73  84  72  87 /  50  60  50  20
MONTICELLO AR     74  86  73  86 /  50  70  60  30
MOUNT IDA AR      75  85  72  88 /  60  50  30  20
MOUNTAIN HOME AR  72  85  70  88 /  60  60  40  20
NEWPORT AR        72  84  72  87 /  50  70  60  30
PINE BLUFF AR     74  85  73  87 /  50  70  60  30
RUSSELLVILLE AR   73  85  71  88 /  60  50  30  20
SEARCY AR         73  84  72  87 /  50  60  50  30
STUTTGART AR      73  85  73  87 /  50  70  60  30
&&

.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...51 / LONG TERM...53






000
FXUS64 KLZK 291927
AFDLZK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
227 PM CDT FRI AUG 29 2014

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT

UPPER LOW PRESSURE IS OVER THE PLAINS THIS AFTERNOON WITH UPPER
RIDGES OVER THE SOUTHWEST AND SOUTHEAST. THIS UPPER TROUGH WILL MOVE
TO THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER SATURDAY AND TO THE EAST COAST SUNDAY.
UPPER HIGH PRESSURE WILL SPREAD ACROSS THE SOUTH SUNDAY AND MONDAY.

SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE
AREA THIS AFTERNOON. THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL IS IN THE NORTHWEST AND
SOUTHEAST. THESE STORMS ARE A RESULT OF A COLD FRONT IN THE PLAINS
WHICH WILL STALL THERE TONIGHT. RAIN CHANCES WILL CONTINUE TONIGHT
AND BECOME LIKELY AGAIN ON SATURDAY. WIDESPREAD SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
ARE NOT ANTICIPATED THOUGH THE STRONGER STORMS WILL PRODUCE GUSTY
WINDS AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN. CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
WILL DECREASE SUNDAY AFTERNOON AS THE SYSTEM MOVES EAST OF ARKANSAS.
A WEAK SHORT WAVE WILL MOVE THROUGH NORTHERN ARKANSAS MONDAY AND
BRING A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. EXPECT COOLER
TEMPERATURES SATURDAY WITH CLOUD COVER AND RAIN OVER THE AREA. ABOVE
NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED BY MONDAY ONCE AGAIN.

&&

.LONG TERM...TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY
HOT AND HUMID WEATHER WILL PREVAIL DURING THE EXTENDED TERM AS AN
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS ENTRENCHED ACROSS THE
AREA. DAILY HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL SOAR WELL INTO THE 90S ACROSS
MOST OF THE AREA EACH DAY.

SOUTHERLY SURFACE WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO BRING MOIST AIR ACROSS THE
REGION...AND SLIGHT CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE PRESENT
THROUGHOUT MUCH OF THE PERIOD.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BATESVILLE AR     72  84  72  88 /  60  60  50  30
CAMDEN AR         74  84  72  87 /  50  60  50  20
HARRISON AR       71  86  70  88 /  60  50  30  10
HOT SPRINGS AR    74  85  72  88 /  60  60  40  20
LITTLE ROCK   AR  73  84  72  87 /  50  60  50  20
MONTICELLO AR     74  86  73  86 /  50  70  60  30
MOUNT IDA AR      75  85  72  88 /  60  50  30  20
MOUNTAIN HOME AR  72  85  70  88 /  60  60  40  20
NEWPORT AR        72  84  72  87 /  50  70  60  30
PINE BLUFF AR     74  85  73  87 /  50  70  60  30
RUSSELLVILLE AR   73  85  71  88 /  60  50  30  20
SEARCY AR         73  84  72  87 /  50  60  50  30
STUTTGART AR      73  85  73  87 /  50  70  60  30
&&

.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...51 / LONG TERM...53






000
FXUS64 KLZK 291927
AFDLZK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
227 PM CDT FRI AUG 29 2014

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT

UPPER LOW PRESSURE IS OVER THE PLAINS THIS AFTERNOON WITH UPPER
RIDGES OVER THE SOUTHWEST AND SOUTHEAST. THIS UPPER TROUGH WILL MOVE
TO THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER SATURDAY AND TO THE EAST COAST SUNDAY.
UPPER HIGH PRESSURE WILL SPREAD ACROSS THE SOUTH SUNDAY AND MONDAY.

SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE
AREA THIS AFTERNOON. THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL IS IN THE NORTHWEST AND
SOUTHEAST. THESE STORMS ARE A RESULT OF A COLD FRONT IN THE PLAINS
WHICH WILL STALL THERE TONIGHT. RAIN CHANCES WILL CONTINUE TONIGHT
AND BECOME LIKELY AGAIN ON SATURDAY. WIDESPREAD SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
ARE NOT ANTICIPATED THOUGH THE STRONGER STORMS WILL PRODUCE GUSTY
WINDS AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN. CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
WILL DECREASE SUNDAY AFTERNOON AS THE SYSTEM MOVES EAST OF ARKANSAS.
A WEAK SHORT WAVE WILL MOVE THROUGH NORTHERN ARKANSAS MONDAY AND
BRING A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. EXPECT COOLER
TEMPERATURES SATURDAY WITH CLOUD COVER AND RAIN OVER THE AREA. ABOVE
NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED BY MONDAY ONCE AGAIN.

&&

.LONG TERM...TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY
HOT AND HUMID WEATHER WILL PREVAIL DURING THE EXTENDED TERM AS AN
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS ENTRENCHED ACROSS THE
AREA. DAILY HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL SOAR WELL INTO THE 90S ACROSS
MOST OF THE AREA EACH DAY.

SOUTHERLY SURFACE WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO BRING MOIST AIR ACROSS THE
REGION...AND SLIGHT CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE PRESENT
THROUGHOUT MUCH OF THE PERIOD.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BATESVILLE AR     72  84  72  88 /  60  60  50  30
CAMDEN AR         74  84  72  87 /  50  60  50  20
HARRISON AR       71  86  70  88 /  60  50  30  10
HOT SPRINGS AR    74  85  72  88 /  60  60  40  20
LITTLE ROCK   AR  73  84  72  87 /  50  60  50  20
MONTICELLO AR     74  86  73  86 /  50  70  60  30
MOUNT IDA AR      75  85  72  88 /  60  50  30  20
MOUNTAIN HOME AR  72  85  70  88 /  60  60  40  20
NEWPORT AR        72  84  72  87 /  50  70  60  30
PINE BLUFF AR     74  85  73  87 /  50  70  60  30
RUSSELLVILLE AR   73  85  71  88 /  60  50  30  20
SEARCY AR         73  84  72  87 /  50  60  50  30
STUTTGART AR      73  85  73  87 /  50  70  60  30
&&

.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...51 / LONG TERM...53






000
FXUS64 KLZK 291720
AFDLZK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
1220 PM CDT FRI AUG 29 2014

.UPDATE...

MINOR UPDATE ISSUED TO MAINLY REMOVE MORNING WORDING. SHORT WAVE
IS APPROACHING THE OKLAHOMA AND ARKANSAS BORDER. SHOWERS ARE
STARTING TO DEVELOP IN ALL PORTIONS OF THE CWFA...SO INCREASED
CHANCES JUST A BIT AND WENT WITH LIKELY IN THE WEST. PRECIPITATION
WILL CONTINUE INTO THIS EVENING.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 930 AM CDT FRI AUG 29 2014/

UPDATE...

UPDATED CLOUD COVER AND POPS FOR THIS MORNING AND AFTERNOON. AN
AREA OF LOW CLOUDS IS MOVING ACROSS CENTRAL ARKANSAS AT THIS TIME
AND MORE CLOUD COVER IS APPROACHING FROM THE WEST. A LINE OF
THUNDERSTORMS IS MOVING THROUGH NORTHEAST TEXAS SO INDICATED BEST
RAIN CHANCES IN SOUTHWEST AND WEST ARKANSAS FOR THE REST OF THE
MORNING AND THIS AFTERNOON. PRECIPITIATON IN EAST ARKANSAS WILL BE
ISOLATED. THE MAIN SHORT WAVE IS EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH
NORTHWEST ARKANSAS THIS AFTERNOON. ALSO DECREASED MAX TEMPERATURES
THIS AFTERNOON A DEGREE OR TWO DUE TO INCREASED CLOUD COVER.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 646 AM CDT FRI AUG 29 2014/

DISCUSSION...

UPDATED FOR THE 12Z AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

AVIATION...

WEAK CONVECTION CONTINUES TO LIFT NORTH THROUGH THE WESTERN HALF
OF THE STATE THIS MORNING. IT IS POSSIBLE THIS COULD COME IN CLOSE
PROXIMITY TO NRN SITES KHRO AND KBPK...BUT WITH THE SPARSE NATURE
AND WEAK SIGNATURE ON RADAR HAVE LEFT MENTION OF THIS OUT OF TAFS
AT THIS TIME. TEMPO -SHRA WOULD BE ABOUT THE EXTENT OF IT IF IT
WERE TO AFFECT THOSE TERMINALS THOUGH. THE BIGGER CONCERN IS MORE
WIDESPREAD CONVECTION LATER TODAY. THE BEST COVERAGE SHOULD BE IN
THE NORTHWEST SO HAVE MAINTAINED TEMPO -TSRA AT NRN SITES.
ELSEWHERE IN THE STATE IT SHOULD BE MORE SCATTERED IN NATURE SO
HAVE ONLY MENTIONED VCTS AT CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN TERMINALS.
CONVECTION WILL BE LARGELY DIURNALLY DRIVEN SO EXPECT TO SEE IT
DIE DOWN CONSIDERABLY AFTER 04Z OR SO AND HAVE THIS REFLECTED IN
TAFS AS WELL. WINDS WILL REMAIN SOUTHERLY THROUGH THE PERIOD AND
FLIGHT CATEGORIES VFR...EXCEPT FOR IN HEAVIER SHOWERS.

NOTE...WILL MAINTAIN AMD NOT SKED AT HOT SPRINGS UNTIL COMPLETE
ASOS OBSERVATIONS RESUME.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 322 AM CDT FRI AUG 29 2014/

SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT
PATTERN THIS MORNING FEATURES RIDGING CENTERED OFF OF THE COASTS OF
SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA AND GEORGIA. IN BETWEEN THE TWO ANTICYCLONES IS
A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE...CLEARLY VISIBLE ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY
THIS MORNING...MOVING THROUGH THE CENTRAL PLAINS. MODELS ALL IN
BASIC AGREEMENT THAT THIS PATTERN WILL MORPH INTO ONE FEATURING A
BROAD CYCLONIC FLOW OVER THE NORTHERN PART OF THE NATION AND UPPER
RIDGING BEGINNING TO REESTABLISH IT SELF OVER THE SOUTH BY THE END
OF THE PERIOD. WITH MODELS IN BASIC AGREEMENT...WILL CONTINUE TO
BLEND MODEL SOLUTIONS WITH A LEAN TOWARDS THE MORE CONSISTENT ECMWF.

CURRENT RADAR INDICATES AN AREA OF ELEVATED CONVECTION OVER THE
SOUTHERN PART OF THE STATE ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAK SHORT WAVE MOVING
THROUGH. SHORT TERM HIGH RES MODELS MOVE THIS AREA NORTHWARD THIS
MORNING AND WILL HAVE TO INCLUDE SOME POPS. ANOTHER AREA OF PRECIP
ASSOCIATED WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED UPPER TROUGH WAS LOCATED IN
CENTRAL OKLAHOMA. THIS AREA IS FORECAST TO LARGELY DISSIPATE AS IT
MOVES EASTWARD BUT WILL ILL BACK IN LATER THIS AFTERNOON AS THE
TROUGH MOVES INTO WESTERN ARKANSAS.

SCATTERED POPS REMAIN WARRANTED ACROSS THE STATE TODAY...ESPECIALLY
THIS AFTERNOON...AS THE TROUGH APPROACHES. MAIN TROUGH AXIS MOVES
THROUGH SATURDAY WHICH IS WHEN THE BEST CHANCES OF WIDESPREAD
PRECIPITATION WILL OCCUR. BELIEVE HIGHER POPS ARE NEEDED OVER THE
SOUTHEAST SATURDAY NIGHT AS ADDITIONAL MOISTURE IS INTRODUCED FROM A
WESTWARD MOVING WAVE IN THE NORTHERN GULF.

ONLY SCATTERED POPS WILL BE CARRIED OVER THE SOUTHEAST SUNDAY AS THE
SYSTEM PULLS AWAY. ANOTHER WAVE WILL PASS TO THE NORTH OF THE STATE
MONDAY AND POPS WILL BE PULLED BACK TO JUST ALONG THE MISSOURI
BORDER. BASICALLY A DRY HOLIDAY IS EXPECTED FOR JUST ABOUT EVERYONE.
BROAD UPPER RIDGING BEGINS TO BUILD BACK OVER THE REGION AS THE
PERIOD ENDS.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL TODAY BEFORE FALLING TO NEAR
NORMAL OR A TOUCH BELOW SATURDAY AND SUNDAY THANKS TO CLOUDS AND
RAIN IN THE AREA. TEMPERATURES REBOUND LABOR DAY. MAV/MEX NUMBERS
LOOK REASONABLE AND ARE GENERALLY ACCEPTED.

SHORT TERM...TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY
MODELS HAVE SHOWN SOME SLIGHT BUT NOTICEABLE TRENDS IN THE LAST 24
HOURS...NAMELY MOVING TOWARDS A WARMER AND DRIER FORECAST. THE
LATEST RUNS SHOW UPPER LEVEL RIDGING STRENGTHENING OVER THE
SOUTHEAST CONUS AS WE MOVE INTO LATE NEXT WEEK. IT IS NOT A HIGH
AMPLITUDE RIDGE SO SCORCHING HEAT IS NOT EXPECTED...BUT NONETHELESS
DID GO AHEAD AND BUMP TEMPERATURES UP EACH DAY. THE OTHER
CONSEQUENCE OF STRONGER FORECAST HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE TO FEND OFF
THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY THAT WAS PREVIOUSLY FORECAST TO MOVE INTO THE
NORTHERN REACHES OF THE FORECAST AREA ON TUESDAY. DID GO AHEAD AND
LEAVE SOME SLIGHT RAIN CHANCES IN THE NORTH AND NORTHEAST FOR
TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY GIVEN THE PROXIMITY OF THE FRONT AND IMPULES
PASSING BY TO THE NORTH OF THE STATE. HOWEVER WITH THE CURRENT SET
OF MODEL RUNS THIS MAY BE A LITTLE GENEROUS. BUT MOVING INTO
THURSDAY IT APPEARS A DRY FORECAST IS IN ORDER.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BATESVILLE AR     90  71  85  70 /  50  60  60  40
CAMDEN AR         92  73  85  71 /  50  50  70  50
HARRISON AR       87  70  87  68 /  60  60  50  30
HOT SPRINGS AR    90  73  85  70 /  50  60  60  30
LITTLE ROCK   AR  90  72  85  71 /  50  50  60  40
MONTICELLO AR     93  72  86  72 /  40  50  70  60
MOUNT IDA AR      89  73  85  70 /  60  60  50  30
MOUNTAIN HOME AR  88  70  86  68 /  50  60  50  30
NEWPORT AR        91  71  85  70 /  40  50  70  50
PINE BLUFF AR     92  72  86  71 /  40  50  70  60
RUSSELLVILLE AR   88  72  86  69 /  60  60  50  30
SEARCY AR         90  71  85  71 /  50  50  60  50
STUTTGART AR      91  72  85  71 /  40  50  70  60
&&

.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&

$$

51





000
FXUS64 KLZK 291720
AFDLZK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
1220 PM CDT FRI AUG 29 2014

.UPDATE...

MINOR UPDATE ISSUED TO MAINLY REMOVE MORNING WORDING. SHORT WAVE
IS APPROACHING THE OKLAHOMA AND ARKANSAS BORDER. SHOWERS ARE
STARTING TO DEVELOP IN ALL PORTIONS OF THE CWFA...SO INCREASED
CHANCES JUST A BIT AND WENT WITH LIKELY IN THE WEST. PRECIPITATION
WILL CONTINUE INTO THIS EVENING.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 930 AM CDT FRI AUG 29 2014/

UPDATE...

UPDATED CLOUD COVER AND POPS FOR THIS MORNING AND AFTERNOON. AN
AREA OF LOW CLOUDS IS MOVING ACROSS CENTRAL ARKANSAS AT THIS TIME
AND MORE CLOUD COVER IS APPROACHING FROM THE WEST. A LINE OF
THUNDERSTORMS IS MOVING THROUGH NORTHEAST TEXAS SO INDICATED BEST
RAIN CHANCES IN SOUTHWEST AND WEST ARKANSAS FOR THE REST OF THE
MORNING AND THIS AFTERNOON. PRECIPITIATON IN EAST ARKANSAS WILL BE
ISOLATED. THE MAIN SHORT WAVE IS EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH
NORTHWEST ARKANSAS THIS AFTERNOON. ALSO DECREASED MAX TEMPERATURES
THIS AFTERNOON A DEGREE OR TWO DUE TO INCREASED CLOUD COVER.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 646 AM CDT FRI AUG 29 2014/

DISCUSSION...

UPDATED FOR THE 12Z AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

AVIATION...

WEAK CONVECTION CONTINUES TO LIFT NORTH THROUGH THE WESTERN HALF
OF THE STATE THIS MORNING. IT IS POSSIBLE THIS COULD COME IN CLOSE
PROXIMITY TO NRN SITES KHRO AND KBPK...BUT WITH THE SPARSE NATURE
AND WEAK SIGNATURE ON RADAR HAVE LEFT MENTION OF THIS OUT OF TAFS
AT THIS TIME. TEMPO -SHRA WOULD BE ABOUT THE EXTENT OF IT IF IT
WERE TO AFFECT THOSE TERMINALS THOUGH. THE BIGGER CONCERN IS MORE
WIDESPREAD CONVECTION LATER TODAY. THE BEST COVERAGE SHOULD BE IN
THE NORTHWEST SO HAVE MAINTAINED TEMPO -TSRA AT NRN SITES.
ELSEWHERE IN THE STATE IT SHOULD BE MORE SCATTERED IN NATURE SO
HAVE ONLY MENTIONED VCTS AT CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN TERMINALS.
CONVECTION WILL BE LARGELY DIURNALLY DRIVEN SO EXPECT TO SEE IT
DIE DOWN CONSIDERABLY AFTER 04Z OR SO AND HAVE THIS REFLECTED IN
TAFS AS WELL. WINDS WILL REMAIN SOUTHERLY THROUGH THE PERIOD AND
FLIGHT CATEGORIES VFR...EXCEPT FOR IN HEAVIER SHOWERS.

NOTE...WILL MAINTAIN AMD NOT SKED AT HOT SPRINGS UNTIL COMPLETE
ASOS OBSERVATIONS RESUME.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 322 AM CDT FRI AUG 29 2014/

SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT
PATTERN THIS MORNING FEATURES RIDGING CENTERED OFF OF THE COASTS OF
SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA AND GEORGIA. IN BETWEEN THE TWO ANTICYCLONES IS
A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE...CLEARLY VISIBLE ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY
THIS MORNING...MOVING THROUGH THE CENTRAL PLAINS. MODELS ALL IN
BASIC AGREEMENT THAT THIS PATTERN WILL MORPH INTO ONE FEATURING A
BROAD CYCLONIC FLOW OVER THE NORTHERN PART OF THE NATION AND UPPER
RIDGING BEGINNING TO REESTABLISH IT SELF OVER THE SOUTH BY THE END
OF THE PERIOD. WITH MODELS IN BASIC AGREEMENT...WILL CONTINUE TO
BLEND MODEL SOLUTIONS WITH A LEAN TOWARDS THE MORE CONSISTENT ECMWF.

CURRENT RADAR INDICATES AN AREA OF ELEVATED CONVECTION OVER THE
SOUTHERN PART OF THE STATE ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAK SHORT WAVE MOVING
THROUGH. SHORT TERM HIGH RES MODELS MOVE THIS AREA NORTHWARD THIS
MORNING AND WILL HAVE TO INCLUDE SOME POPS. ANOTHER AREA OF PRECIP
ASSOCIATED WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED UPPER TROUGH WAS LOCATED IN
CENTRAL OKLAHOMA. THIS AREA IS FORECAST TO LARGELY DISSIPATE AS IT
MOVES EASTWARD BUT WILL ILL BACK IN LATER THIS AFTERNOON AS THE
TROUGH MOVES INTO WESTERN ARKANSAS.

SCATTERED POPS REMAIN WARRANTED ACROSS THE STATE TODAY...ESPECIALLY
THIS AFTERNOON...AS THE TROUGH APPROACHES. MAIN TROUGH AXIS MOVES
THROUGH SATURDAY WHICH IS WHEN THE BEST CHANCES OF WIDESPREAD
PRECIPITATION WILL OCCUR. BELIEVE HIGHER POPS ARE NEEDED OVER THE
SOUTHEAST SATURDAY NIGHT AS ADDITIONAL MOISTURE IS INTRODUCED FROM A
WESTWARD MOVING WAVE IN THE NORTHERN GULF.

ONLY SCATTERED POPS WILL BE CARRIED OVER THE SOUTHEAST SUNDAY AS THE
SYSTEM PULLS AWAY. ANOTHER WAVE WILL PASS TO THE NORTH OF THE STATE
MONDAY AND POPS WILL BE PULLED BACK TO JUST ALONG THE MISSOURI
BORDER. BASICALLY A DRY HOLIDAY IS EXPECTED FOR JUST ABOUT EVERYONE.
BROAD UPPER RIDGING BEGINS TO BUILD BACK OVER THE REGION AS THE
PERIOD ENDS.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL TODAY BEFORE FALLING TO NEAR
NORMAL OR A TOUCH BELOW SATURDAY AND SUNDAY THANKS TO CLOUDS AND
RAIN IN THE AREA. TEMPERATURES REBOUND LABOR DAY. MAV/MEX NUMBERS
LOOK REASONABLE AND ARE GENERALLY ACCEPTED.

SHORT TERM...TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY
MODELS HAVE SHOWN SOME SLIGHT BUT NOTICEABLE TRENDS IN THE LAST 24
HOURS...NAMELY MOVING TOWARDS A WARMER AND DRIER FORECAST. THE
LATEST RUNS SHOW UPPER LEVEL RIDGING STRENGTHENING OVER THE
SOUTHEAST CONUS AS WE MOVE INTO LATE NEXT WEEK. IT IS NOT A HIGH
AMPLITUDE RIDGE SO SCORCHING HEAT IS NOT EXPECTED...BUT NONETHELESS
DID GO AHEAD AND BUMP TEMPERATURES UP EACH DAY. THE OTHER
CONSEQUENCE OF STRONGER FORECAST HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE TO FEND OFF
THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY THAT WAS PREVIOUSLY FORECAST TO MOVE INTO THE
NORTHERN REACHES OF THE FORECAST AREA ON TUESDAY. DID GO AHEAD AND
LEAVE SOME SLIGHT RAIN CHANCES IN THE NORTH AND NORTHEAST FOR
TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY GIVEN THE PROXIMITY OF THE FRONT AND IMPULES
PASSING BY TO THE NORTH OF THE STATE. HOWEVER WITH THE CURRENT SET
OF MODEL RUNS THIS MAY BE A LITTLE GENEROUS. BUT MOVING INTO
THURSDAY IT APPEARS A DRY FORECAST IS IN ORDER.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BATESVILLE AR     90  71  85  70 /  50  60  60  40
CAMDEN AR         92  73  85  71 /  50  50  70  50
HARRISON AR       87  70  87  68 /  60  60  50  30
HOT SPRINGS AR    90  73  85  70 /  50  60  60  30
LITTLE ROCK   AR  90  72  85  71 /  50  50  60  40
MONTICELLO AR     93  72  86  72 /  40  50  70  60
MOUNT IDA AR      89  73  85  70 /  60  60  50  30
MOUNTAIN HOME AR  88  70  86  68 /  50  60  50  30
NEWPORT AR        91  71  85  70 /  40  50  70  50
PINE BLUFF AR     92  72  86  71 /  40  50  70  60
RUSSELLVILLE AR   88  72  86  69 /  60  60  50  30
SEARCY AR         90  71  85  71 /  50  50  60  50
STUTTGART AR      91  72  85  71 /  40  50  70  60
&&

.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&

$$

51






000
FXUS64 KLZK 291430
AFDLZK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
930 AM CDT FRI AUG 29 2014

.UPDATE...

UPDATED CLOUD COVER AND POPS FOR THIS MORNING AND AFTERNOON. AN
AREA OF LOW CLOUDS IS MOVING ACROSS CENTRAL ARKANSAS AT THIS TIME
AND MORE CLOUD COVER IS APPROACHING FROM THE WEST. A LINE OF
THUNDERSTORMS IS MOVING THROUGH NORTHEAST TEXAS SO INDICATED BEST
RAIN CHANCES IN SOUTHWEST AND WEST ARKANSAS FOR THE REST OF THE
MORNING AND THIS AFTERNOON. PRECIPITIATON IN EAST ARKANSAS WILL BE
ISOLATED. THE MAIN SHORT WAVE IS EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH
NORTHWEST ARKANSAS THIS AFTERNOON. ALSO DECREASED MAX TEMPERATURES
THIS AFTERNOON A DEGREE OR TWO DUE TO INCREASED CLOUD COVER.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 646 AM CDT FRI AUG 29 2014/

DISCUSSION...

UPDATED FOR THE 12Z AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

AVIATION...

WEAK CONVECTION CONTINUES TO LIFT NORTH THROUGH THE WESTERN HALF
OF THE STATE THIS MORNING. IT IS POSSIBLE THIS COULD COME IN CLOSE
PROXIMITY TO NRN SITES KHRO AND KBPK...BUT WITH THE SPARSE NATURE
AND WEAK SIGNATURE ON RADAR HAVE LEFT MENTION OF THIS OUT OF TAFS
AT THIS TIME. TEMPO -SHRA WOULD BE ABOUT THE EXTENT OF IT IF IT
WERE TO AFFECT THOSE TERMINALS THOUGH. THE BIGGER CONCERN IS MORE
WIDESPREAD CONVECTION LATER TODAY. THE BEST COVERAGE SHOULD BE IN
THE NORTHWEST SO HAVE MAINTAINED TEMPO -TSRA AT NRN SITES.
ELSEWHERE IN THE STATE IT SHOULD BE MORE SCATTERED IN NATURE SO
HAVE ONLY MENTIONED VCTS AT CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN TERMINALS.
CONVECTION WILL BE LARGELY DIURNALLY DRIVEN SO EXPECT TO SEE IT
DIE DOWN CONSIDERABLY AFTER 04Z OR SO AND HAVE THIS REFLECTED IN
TAFS AS WELL. WINDS WILL REMAIN SOUTHERLY THROUGH THE PERIOD AND
FLIGHT CATEGORIES VFR...EXCEPT FOR IN HEAVIER SHOWERS.

NOTE...WILL MAINTAIN AMD NOT SKED AT HOT SPRINGS UNTIL COMPLETE
ASOS OBSERVATIONS RESUME.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 322 AM CDT FRI AUG 29 2014/

SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT
PATTERN THIS MORNING FEATURES RIDGING CENTERED OFF OF THE COASTS OF
SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA AND GEORGIA. IN BETWEEN THE TWO ANTICYCLONES IS
A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE...CLEARLY VISIBLE ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY
THIS MORNING...MOVING THROUGH THE CENTRAL PLAINS. MODELS ALL IN
BASIC AGREEMENT THAT THIS PATTERN WILL MORPH INTO ONE FEATURING A
BROAD CYCLONIC FLOW OVER THE NORTHERN PART OF THE NATION AND UPPER
RIDGING BEGINNING TO REESTABLISH IT SELF OVER THE SOUTH BY THE END
OF THE PERIOD. WITH MODELS IN BASIC AGREEMENT...WILL CONTINUE TO
BLEND MODEL SOLUTIONS WITH A LEAN TOWARDS THE MORE CONSISTENT ECMWF.

CURRENT RADAR INDICATES AN AREA OF ELEVATED CONVECTION OVER THE
SOUTHERN PART OF THE STATE ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAK SHORT WAVE MOVING
THROUGH. SHORT TERM HIGH RES MODELS MOVE THIS AREA NORTHWARD THIS
MORNING AND WILL HAVE TO INCLUDE SOME POPS. ANOTHER AREA OF PRECIP
ASSOCIATED WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED UPPER TROUGH WAS LOCATED IN
CENTRAL OKLAHOMA. THIS AREA IS FORECAST TO LARGELY DISSIPATE AS IT
MOVES EASTWARD BUT WILL ILL BACK IN LATER THIS AFTERNOON AS THE
TROUGH MOVES INTO WESTERN ARKANSAS.

SCATTERED POPS REMAIN WARRANTED ACROSS THE STATE TODAY...ESPECIALLY
THIS AFTERNOON...AS THE TROUGH APPROACHES. MAIN TROUGH AXIS MOVES
THROUGH SATURDAY WHICH IS WHEN THE BEST CHANCES OF WIDESPREAD
PRECIPITATION WILL OCCUR. BELIEVE HIGHER POPS ARE NEEDED OVER THE
SOUTHEAST SATURDAY NIGHT AS ADDITIONAL MOISTURE IS INTRODUCED FROM A
WESTWARD MOVING WAVE IN THE NORTHERN GULF.

ONLY SCATTERED POPS WILL BE CARRIED OVER THE SOUTHEAST SUNDAY AS THE
SYSTEM PULLS AWAY. ANOTHER WAVE WILL PASS TO THE NORTH OF THE STATE
MONDAY AND POPS WILL BE PULLED BACK TO JUST ALONG THE MISSOURI
BORDER. BASICALLY A DRY HOLIDAY IS EXPECTED FOR JUST ABOUT EVERYONE.
BROAD UPPER RIDGING BEGINS TO BUILD BACK OVER THE REGION AS THE
PERIOD ENDS.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL TODAY BEFORE FALLING TO NEAR
NORMAL OR A TOUCH BELOW SATURDAY AND SUNDAY THANKS TO CLOUDS AND
RAIN IN THE AREA. TEMPERATURES REBOUND LABOR DAY. MAV/MEX NUMBERS
LOOK REASONABLE AND ARE GENERALLY ACCEPTED.

SHORT TERM...TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY
MODELS HAVE SHOWN SOME SLIGHT BUT NOTICEABLE TRENDS IN THE LAST 24
HOURS...NAMELY MOVING TOWARDS A WARMER AND DRIER FORECAST. THE
LATEST RUNS SHOW UPPER LEVEL RIDGING STRENGTHENING OVER THE
SOUTHEAST CONUS AS WE MOVE INTO LATE NEXT WEEK. IT IS NOT A HIGH
AMPLITUDE RIDGE SO SCORCHING HEAT IS NOT EXPECTED...BUT NONETHELESS
DID GO AHEAD AND BUMP TEMPERATURES UP EACH DAY. THE OTHER
CONSEQUENCE OF STRONGER FORECAST HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE TO FEND OFF
THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY THAT WAS PREVIOUSLY FORECAST TO MOVE INTO THE
NORTHERN REACHES OF THE FORECAST AREA ON TUESDAY. DID GO AHEAD AND
LEAVE SOME SLIGHT RAIN CHANCES IN THE NORTH AND NORTHEAST FOR
TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY GIVEN THE PROXIMITY OF THE FRONT AND IMPULES
PASSING BY TO THE NORTH OF THE STATE. HOWEVER WITH THE CURRENT SET
OF MODEL RUNS THIS MAY BE A LITTLE GENEROUS. BUT MOVING INTO
THURSDAY IT APPEARS A DRY FORECAST IS IN ORDER.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BATESVILLE AR     90  71  86  70 /  50  60  60  40
CAMDEN AR         92  72  83  71 /  50  50  70  50
HARRISON AR       87  69  87  68 /  50  60  50  30
HOT SPRINGS AR    90  72  83  70 /  50  50  60  30
LITTLE ROCK   AR  90  72  85  71 /  50  50  60  40
MONTICELLO AR     93  73  84  72 /  40  50  70  60
MOUNT IDA AR      89  71  83  70 /  50  50  50  30
MOUNTAIN HOME AR  88  70  88  68 /  50  60  50  30
NEWPORT AR        91  71  83  70 /  40  50  70  50
PINE BLUFF AR     92  72  84  71 /  40  50  70  60
RUSSELLVILLE AR   88  71  88  69 /  50  60  50  30
SEARCY AR         90  71  85  71 /  50  50  60  50
STUTTGART AR      91  71  85  71 /  40  50  70  60
&&

.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&

$$

51





000
FXUS64 KLZK 291146 AAA
AFDLZK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
646 AM CDT FRI AUG 29 2014

.DISCUSSION...

UPDATED FOR THE 12Z AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

&&

.AVIATION...

WEAK CONVECTION CONTINUES TO LIFT NORTH THROUGH THE WESTERN HALF
OF THE STATE THIS MORNING. IT IS POSSIBLE THIS COULD COME IN CLOSE
PROXIMITY TO NRN SITES KHRO AND KBPK...BUT WITH THE SPARSE NATURE
AND WEAK SIGNATURE ON RADAR HAVE LEFT MENTION OF THIS OUT OF TAFS
AT THIS TIME. TEMPO -SHRA WOULD BE ABOUT THE EXTENT OF IT IF IT
WERE TO AFFECT THOSE TERMINALS THOUGH. THE BIGGER CONCERN IS MORE
WIDESPREAD CONVECTION LATER TODAY. THE BEST COVERAGE SHOULD BE IN
THE NORTHWEST SO HAVE MAINTAINED TEMPO -TSRA AT NRN SITES.
ELSEWHERE IN THE STATE IT SHOULD BE MORE SCATTERED IN NATURE SO
HAVE ONLY MENTIONED VCTS AT CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN TERMINALS.
CONVECTION WILL BE LARGELY DIURNALLY DRIVEN SO EXPECT TO SEE IT
DIE DOWN CONSIDERABLY AFTER 04Z OR SO AND HAVE THIS REFLECTED IN
TAFS AS WELL. WINDS WILL REMAIN SOUTHERLY THROUGH THE PERIOD AND
FLIGHT CATEGORIES VFR...EXCEPT FOR IN HEAVIER SHOWERS.

NOTE...WILL MAINTAIN AMD NOT SKED AT HOT SPRINGS UNTIL COMPLETE
ASOS OBSERVATIONS RESUME.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 322 AM CDT FRI AUG 29 2014/

SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT
PATTERN THIS MORNING FEATURES RIDGING CENTERED OFF OF THE COASTS OF
SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA AND GEORGIA. IN BETWEEN THE TWO ANTICYCLONES IS
A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE...CLEARLY VISIBLE ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY
THIS MORNING...MOVING THROUGH THE CENTRAL PLAINS. MODELS ALL IN
BASIC AGREEMENT THAT THIS PATTERN WILL MORPH INTO ONE FEATURING A
BROAD CYCLONIC FLOW OVER THE NORTHERN PART OF THE NATION AND UPPER
RIDGING BEGINNING TO REESTABLISH IT SELF OVER THE SOUTH BY THE END
OF THE PERIOD. WITH MODELS IN BASIC AGREEMENT...WILL CONTINUE TO
BLEND MODEL SOLUTIONS WITH A LEAN TOWARDS THE MORE CONSISTENT ECMWF.

CURRENT RADAR INDICATES AN AREA OF ELEVATED CONVECTION OVER THE
SOUTHERN PART OF THE STATE ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAK SHORT WAVE MOVING
THROUGH. SHORT TERM HIGH RES MODELS MOVE THIS AREA NORTHWARD THIS
MORNING AND WILL HAVE TO INCLUDE SOME POPS. ANOTHER AREA OF PRECIP
ASSOCIATED WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED UPPER TROUGH WAS LOCATED IN
CENTRAL OKLAHOMA. THIS AREA IS FORECAST TO LARGELY DISSIPATE AS IT
MOVES EASTWARD BUT WILL ILL BACK IN LATER THIS AFTERNOON AS THE
TROUGH MOVES INTO WESTERN ARKANSAS.

SCATTERED POPS REMAIN WARRANTED ACROSS THE STATE TODAY...ESPECIALLY
THIS AFTERNOON...AS THE TROUGH APPROACHES. MAIN TROUGH AXIS MOVES
THROUGH SATURDAY WHICH IS WHEN THE BEST CHANCES OF WIDESPREAD
PRECIPITATION WILL OCCUR. BELIEVE HIGHER POPS ARE NEEDED OVER THE
SOUTHEAST SATURDAY NIGHT AS ADDITIONAL MOISTURE IS INTRODUCED FROM A
WESTWARD MOVING WAVE IN THE NORTHERN GULF.

ONLY SCATTERED POPS WILL BE CARRIED OVER THE SOUTHEAST SUNDAY AS THE
SYSTEM PULLS AWAY. ANOTHER WAVE WILL PASS TO THE NORTH OF THE STATE
MONDAY AND POPS WILL BE PULLED BACK TO JUST ALONG THE MISSOURI
BORDER. BASICALLY A DRY HOLIDAY IS EXPECTED FOR JUST ABOUT EVERYONE.
BROAD UPPER RIDGING BEGINS TO BUILD BACK OVER THE REGION AS THE
PERIOD ENDS.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL TODAY BEFORE FALLING TO NEAR
NORMAL OR A TOUCH BELOW SATURDAY AND SUNDAY THANKS TO CLOUDS AND
RAIN IN THE AREA. TEMPERATURES REBOUND LABOR DAY. MAV/MEX NUMBERS
LOOK REASONABLE AND ARE GENERALLY ACCEPTED.

SHORT TERM...TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY
MODELS HAVE SHOWN SOME SLIGHT BUT NOTICEABLE TRENDS IN THE LAST 24
HOURS...NAMELY MOVING TOWARDS A WARMER AND DRIER FORECAST. THE
LATEST RUNS SHOW UPPER LEVEL RIDGING STRENGTHENING OVER THE
SOUTHEAST CONUS AS WE MOVE INTO LATE NEXT WEEK. IT IS NOT A HIGH
AMPLITUDE RIDGE SO SCORCHING HEAT IS NOT EXPECTED...BUT NONETHELESS
DID GO AHEAD AND BUMP TEMPERATURES UP EACH DAY. THE OTHER
CONSEQUENCE OF STRONGER FORECAST HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE TO FEND OFF
THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY THAT WAS PREVIOUSLY FORECAST TO MOVE INTO THE
NORTHERN REACHES OF THE FORECAST AREA ON TUESDAY. DID GO AHEAD AND
LEAVE SOME SLIGHT RAIN CHANCES IN THE NORTH AND NORTHEAST FOR
TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY GIVEN THE PROXIMITY OF THE FRONT AND IMPULES
PASSING BY TO THE NORTH OF THE STATE. HOWEVER WITH THE CURRENT SET
OF MODEL RUNS THIS MAY BE A LITTLE GENEROUS. BUT MOVING INTO
THURSDAY IT APPEARS A DRY FORECAST IS IN ORDER.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BATESVILLE AR     91  71  86  70 /  30  60  60  40
CAMDEN AR         93  72  83  71 /  30  50  70  50
HARRISON AR       88  69  87  68 /  50  60  50  30
HOT SPRINGS AR    91  72  83  70 /  40  50  60  30
LITTLE ROCK   AR  92  72  85  71 /  30  50  60  40
MONTICELLO AR     94  73  84  72 /  30  50  70  60
MOUNT IDA AR      90  71  83  70 /  40  50  50  30
MOUNTAIN HOME AR  90  70  88  68 /  40  60  50  30
NEWPORT AR        92  71  83  70 /  20  50  70  50
PINE BLUFF AR     92  72  84  71 /  30  50  70  60
RUSSELLVILLE AR   90  71  88  69 /  40  60  50  30
SEARCY AR         92  71  85  71 /  30  50  60  50
STUTTGART AR      92  71  85  71 /  20  50  70  60
&&

.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&

$$


AVIATION...64








000
FXUS64 KLZK 291146 AAA
AFDLZK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
646 AM CDT FRI AUG 29 2014

.DISCUSSION...

UPDATED FOR THE 12Z AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

&&

.AVIATION...

WEAK CONVECTION CONTINUES TO LIFT NORTH THROUGH THE WESTERN HALF
OF THE STATE THIS MORNING. IT IS POSSIBLE THIS COULD COME IN CLOSE
PROXIMITY TO NRN SITES KHRO AND KBPK...BUT WITH THE SPARSE NATURE
AND WEAK SIGNATURE ON RADAR HAVE LEFT MENTION OF THIS OUT OF TAFS
AT THIS TIME. TEMPO -SHRA WOULD BE ABOUT THE EXTENT OF IT IF IT
WERE TO AFFECT THOSE TERMINALS THOUGH. THE BIGGER CONCERN IS MORE
WIDESPREAD CONVECTION LATER TODAY. THE BEST COVERAGE SHOULD BE IN
THE NORTHWEST SO HAVE MAINTAINED TEMPO -TSRA AT NRN SITES.
ELSEWHERE IN THE STATE IT SHOULD BE MORE SCATTERED IN NATURE SO
HAVE ONLY MENTIONED VCTS AT CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN TERMINALS.
CONVECTION WILL BE LARGELY DIURNALLY DRIVEN SO EXPECT TO SEE IT
DIE DOWN CONSIDERABLY AFTER 04Z OR SO AND HAVE THIS REFLECTED IN
TAFS AS WELL. WINDS WILL REMAIN SOUTHERLY THROUGH THE PERIOD AND
FLIGHT CATEGORIES VFR...EXCEPT FOR IN HEAVIER SHOWERS.

NOTE...WILL MAINTAIN AMD NOT SKED AT HOT SPRINGS UNTIL COMPLETE
ASOS OBSERVATIONS RESUME.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 322 AM CDT FRI AUG 29 2014/

SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT
PATTERN THIS MORNING FEATURES RIDGING CENTERED OFF OF THE COASTS OF
SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA AND GEORGIA. IN BETWEEN THE TWO ANTICYCLONES IS
A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE...CLEARLY VISIBLE ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY
THIS MORNING...MOVING THROUGH THE CENTRAL PLAINS. MODELS ALL IN
BASIC AGREEMENT THAT THIS PATTERN WILL MORPH INTO ONE FEATURING A
BROAD CYCLONIC FLOW OVER THE NORTHERN PART OF THE NATION AND UPPER
RIDGING BEGINNING TO REESTABLISH IT SELF OVER THE SOUTH BY THE END
OF THE PERIOD. WITH MODELS IN BASIC AGREEMENT...WILL CONTINUE TO
BLEND MODEL SOLUTIONS WITH A LEAN TOWARDS THE MORE CONSISTENT ECMWF.

CURRENT RADAR INDICATES AN AREA OF ELEVATED CONVECTION OVER THE
SOUTHERN PART OF THE STATE ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAK SHORT WAVE MOVING
THROUGH. SHORT TERM HIGH RES MODELS MOVE THIS AREA NORTHWARD THIS
MORNING AND WILL HAVE TO INCLUDE SOME POPS. ANOTHER AREA OF PRECIP
ASSOCIATED WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED UPPER TROUGH WAS LOCATED IN
CENTRAL OKLAHOMA. THIS AREA IS FORECAST TO LARGELY DISSIPATE AS IT
MOVES EASTWARD BUT WILL ILL BACK IN LATER THIS AFTERNOON AS THE
TROUGH MOVES INTO WESTERN ARKANSAS.

SCATTERED POPS REMAIN WARRANTED ACROSS THE STATE TODAY...ESPECIALLY
THIS AFTERNOON...AS THE TROUGH APPROACHES. MAIN TROUGH AXIS MOVES
THROUGH SATURDAY WHICH IS WHEN THE BEST CHANCES OF WIDESPREAD
PRECIPITATION WILL OCCUR. BELIEVE HIGHER POPS ARE NEEDED OVER THE
SOUTHEAST SATURDAY NIGHT AS ADDITIONAL MOISTURE IS INTRODUCED FROM A
WESTWARD MOVING WAVE IN THE NORTHERN GULF.

ONLY SCATTERED POPS WILL BE CARRIED OVER THE SOUTHEAST SUNDAY AS THE
SYSTEM PULLS AWAY. ANOTHER WAVE WILL PASS TO THE NORTH OF THE STATE
MONDAY AND POPS WILL BE PULLED BACK TO JUST ALONG THE MISSOURI
BORDER. BASICALLY A DRY HOLIDAY IS EXPECTED FOR JUST ABOUT EVERYONE.
BROAD UPPER RIDGING BEGINS TO BUILD BACK OVER THE REGION AS THE
PERIOD ENDS.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL TODAY BEFORE FALLING TO NEAR
NORMAL OR A TOUCH BELOW SATURDAY AND SUNDAY THANKS TO CLOUDS AND
RAIN IN THE AREA. TEMPERATURES REBOUND LABOR DAY. MAV/MEX NUMBERS
LOOK REASONABLE AND ARE GENERALLY ACCEPTED.

SHORT TERM...TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY
MODELS HAVE SHOWN SOME SLIGHT BUT NOTICEABLE TRENDS IN THE LAST 24
HOURS...NAMELY MOVING TOWARDS A WARMER AND DRIER FORECAST. THE
LATEST RUNS SHOW UPPER LEVEL RIDGING STRENGTHENING OVER THE
SOUTHEAST CONUS AS WE MOVE INTO LATE NEXT WEEK. IT IS NOT A HIGH
AMPLITUDE RIDGE SO SCORCHING HEAT IS NOT EXPECTED...BUT NONETHELESS
DID GO AHEAD AND BUMP TEMPERATURES UP EACH DAY. THE OTHER
CONSEQUENCE OF STRONGER FORECAST HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE TO FEND OFF
THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY THAT WAS PREVIOUSLY FORECAST TO MOVE INTO THE
NORTHERN REACHES OF THE FORECAST AREA ON TUESDAY. DID GO AHEAD AND
LEAVE SOME SLIGHT RAIN CHANCES IN THE NORTH AND NORTHEAST FOR
TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY GIVEN THE PROXIMITY OF THE FRONT AND IMPULES
PASSING BY TO THE NORTH OF THE STATE. HOWEVER WITH THE CURRENT SET
OF MODEL RUNS THIS MAY BE A LITTLE GENEROUS. BUT MOVING INTO
THURSDAY IT APPEARS A DRY FORECAST IS IN ORDER.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BATESVILLE AR     91  71  86  70 /  30  60  60  40
CAMDEN AR         93  72  83  71 /  30  50  70  50
HARRISON AR       88  69  87  68 /  50  60  50  30
HOT SPRINGS AR    91  72  83  70 /  40  50  60  30
LITTLE ROCK   AR  92  72  85  71 /  30  50  60  40
MONTICELLO AR     94  73  84  72 /  30  50  70  60
MOUNT IDA AR      90  71  83  70 /  40  50  50  30
MOUNTAIN HOME AR  90  70  88  68 /  40  60  50  30
NEWPORT AR        92  71  83  70 /  20  50  70  50
PINE BLUFF AR     92  72  84  71 /  30  50  70  60
RUSSELLVILLE AR   90  71  88  69 /  40  60  50  30
SEARCY AR         92  71  85  71 /  30  50  60  50
STUTTGART AR      92  71  85  71 /  20  50  70  60
&&

.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&

$$


AVIATION...64








000
FXUS64 KLZK 291146 AAA
AFDLZK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
646 AM CDT FRI AUG 29 2014

.DISCUSSION...

UPDATED FOR THE 12Z AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

&&

.AVIATION...

WEAK CONVECTION CONTINUES TO LIFT NORTH THROUGH THE WESTERN HALF
OF THE STATE THIS MORNING. IT IS POSSIBLE THIS COULD COME IN CLOSE
PROXIMITY TO NRN SITES KHRO AND KBPK...BUT WITH THE SPARSE NATURE
AND WEAK SIGNATURE ON RADAR HAVE LEFT MENTION OF THIS OUT OF TAFS
AT THIS TIME. TEMPO -SHRA WOULD BE ABOUT THE EXTENT OF IT IF IT
WERE TO AFFECT THOSE TERMINALS THOUGH. THE BIGGER CONCERN IS MORE
WIDESPREAD CONVECTION LATER TODAY. THE BEST COVERAGE SHOULD BE IN
THE NORTHWEST SO HAVE MAINTAINED TEMPO -TSRA AT NRN SITES.
ELSEWHERE IN THE STATE IT SHOULD BE MORE SCATTERED IN NATURE SO
HAVE ONLY MENTIONED VCTS AT CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN TERMINALS.
CONVECTION WILL BE LARGELY DIURNALLY DRIVEN SO EXPECT TO SEE IT
DIE DOWN CONSIDERABLY AFTER 04Z OR SO AND HAVE THIS REFLECTED IN
TAFS AS WELL. WINDS WILL REMAIN SOUTHERLY THROUGH THE PERIOD AND
FLIGHT CATEGORIES VFR...EXCEPT FOR IN HEAVIER SHOWERS.

NOTE...WILL MAINTAIN AMD NOT SKED AT HOT SPRINGS UNTIL COMPLETE
ASOS OBSERVATIONS RESUME.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 322 AM CDT FRI AUG 29 2014/

SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT
PATTERN THIS MORNING FEATURES RIDGING CENTERED OFF OF THE COASTS OF
SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA AND GEORGIA. IN BETWEEN THE TWO ANTICYCLONES IS
A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE...CLEARLY VISIBLE ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY
THIS MORNING...MOVING THROUGH THE CENTRAL PLAINS. MODELS ALL IN
BASIC AGREEMENT THAT THIS PATTERN WILL MORPH INTO ONE FEATURING A
BROAD CYCLONIC FLOW OVER THE NORTHERN PART OF THE NATION AND UPPER
RIDGING BEGINNING TO REESTABLISH IT SELF OVER THE SOUTH BY THE END
OF THE PERIOD. WITH MODELS IN BASIC AGREEMENT...WILL CONTINUE TO
BLEND MODEL SOLUTIONS WITH A LEAN TOWARDS THE MORE CONSISTENT ECMWF.

CURRENT RADAR INDICATES AN AREA OF ELEVATED CONVECTION OVER THE
SOUTHERN PART OF THE STATE ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAK SHORT WAVE MOVING
THROUGH. SHORT TERM HIGH RES MODELS MOVE THIS AREA NORTHWARD THIS
MORNING AND WILL HAVE TO INCLUDE SOME POPS. ANOTHER AREA OF PRECIP
ASSOCIATED WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED UPPER TROUGH WAS LOCATED IN
CENTRAL OKLAHOMA. THIS AREA IS FORECAST TO LARGELY DISSIPATE AS IT
MOVES EASTWARD BUT WILL ILL BACK IN LATER THIS AFTERNOON AS THE
TROUGH MOVES INTO WESTERN ARKANSAS.

SCATTERED POPS REMAIN WARRANTED ACROSS THE STATE TODAY...ESPECIALLY
THIS AFTERNOON...AS THE TROUGH APPROACHES. MAIN TROUGH AXIS MOVES
THROUGH SATURDAY WHICH IS WHEN THE BEST CHANCES OF WIDESPREAD
PRECIPITATION WILL OCCUR. BELIEVE HIGHER POPS ARE NEEDED OVER THE
SOUTHEAST SATURDAY NIGHT AS ADDITIONAL MOISTURE IS INTRODUCED FROM A
WESTWARD MOVING WAVE IN THE NORTHERN GULF.

ONLY SCATTERED POPS WILL BE CARRIED OVER THE SOUTHEAST SUNDAY AS THE
SYSTEM PULLS AWAY. ANOTHER WAVE WILL PASS TO THE NORTH OF THE STATE
MONDAY AND POPS WILL BE PULLED BACK TO JUST ALONG THE MISSOURI
BORDER. BASICALLY A DRY HOLIDAY IS EXPECTED FOR JUST ABOUT EVERYONE.
BROAD UPPER RIDGING BEGINS TO BUILD BACK OVER THE REGION AS THE
PERIOD ENDS.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL TODAY BEFORE FALLING TO NEAR
NORMAL OR A TOUCH BELOW SATURDAY AND SUNDAY THANKS TO CLOUDS AND
RAIN IN THE AREA. TEMPERATURES REBOUND LABOR DAY. MAV/MEX NUMBERS
LOOK REASONABLE AND ARE GENERALLY ACCEPTED.

SHORT TERM...TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY
MODELS HAVE SHOWN SOME SLIGHT BUT NOTICEABLE TRENDS IN THE LAST 24
HOURS...NAMELY MOVING TOWARDS A WARMER AND DRIER FORECAST. THE
LATEST RUNS SHOW UPPER LEVEL RIDGING STRENGTHENING OVER THE
SOUTHEAST CONUS AS WE MOVE INTO LATE NEXT WEEK. IT IS NOT A HIGH
AMPLITUDE RIDGE SO SCORCHING HEAT IS NOT EXPECTED...BUT NONETHELESS
DID GO AHEAD AND BUMP TEMPERATURES UP EACH DAY. THE OTHER
CONSEQUENCE OF STRONGER FORECAST HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE TO FEND OFF
THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY THAT WAS PREVIOUSLY FORECAST TO MOVE INTO THE
NORTHERN REACHES OF THE FORECAST AREA ON TUESDAY. DID GO AHEAD AND
LEAVE SOME SLIGHT RAIN CHANCES IN THE NORTH AND NORTHEAST FOR
TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY GIVEN THE PROXIMITY OF THE FRONT AND IMPULES
PASSING BY TO THE NORTH OF THE STATE. HOWEVER WITH THE CURRENT SET
OF MODEL RUNS THIS MAY BE A LITTLE GENEROUS. BUT MOVING INTO
THURSDAY IT APPEARS A DRY FORECAST IS IN ORDER.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BATESVILLE AR     91  71  86  70 /  30  60  60  40
CAMDEN AR         93  72  83  71 /  30  50  70  50
HARRISON AR       88  69  87  68 /  50  60  50  30
HOT SPRINGS AR    91  72  83  70 /  40  50  60  30
LITTLE ROCK   AR  92  72  85  71 /  30  50  60  40
MONTICELLO AR     94  73  84  72 /  30  50  70  60
MOUNT IDA AR      90  71  83  70 /  40  50  50  30
MOUNTAIN HOME AR  90  70  88  68 /  40  60  50  30
NEWPORT AR        92  71  83  70 /  20  50  70  50
PINE BLUFF AR     92  72  84  71 /  30  50  70  60
RUSSELLVILLE AR   90  71  88  69 /  40  60  50  30
SEARCY AR         92  71  85  71 /  30  50  60  50
STUTTGART AR      92  71  85  71 /  20  50  70  60
&&

.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&

$$


AVIATION...64








000
FXUS64 KLZK 291146 AAA
AFDLZK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
646 AM CDT FRI AUG 29 2014

.DISCUSSION...

UPDATED FOR THE 12Z AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

&&

.AVIATION...

WEAK CONVECTION CONTINUES TO LIFT NORTH THROUGH THE WESTERN HALF
OF THE STATE THIS MORNING. IT IS POSSIBLE THIS COULD COME IN CLOSE
PROXIMITY TO NRN SITES KHRO AND KBPK...BUT WITH THE SPARSE NATURE
AND WEAK SIGNATURE ON RADAR HAVE LEFT MENTION OF THIS OUT OF TAFS
AT THIS TIME. TEMPO -SHRA WOULD BE ABOUT THE EXTENT OF IT IF IT
WERE TO AFFECT THOSE TERMINALS THOUGH. THE BIGGER CONCERN IS MORE
WIDESPREAD CONVECTION LATER TODAY. THE BEST COVERAGE SHOULD BE IN
THE NORTHWEST SO HAVE MAINTAINED TEMPO -TSRA AT NRN SITES.
ELSEWHERE IN THE STATE IT SHOULD BE MORE SCATTERED IN NATURE SO
HAVE ONLY MENTIONED VCTS AT CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN TERMINALS.
CONVECTION WILL BE LARGELY DIURNALLY DRIVEN SO EXPECT TO SEE IT
DIE DOWN CONSIDERABLY AFTER 04Z OR SO AND HAVE THIS REFLECTED IN
TAFS AS WELL. WINDS WILL REMAIN SOUTHERLY THROUGH THE PERIOD AND
FLIGHT CATEGORIES VFR...EXCEPT FOR IN HEAVIER SHOWERS.

NOTE...WILL MAINTAIN AMD NOT SKED AT HOT SPRINGS UNTIL COMPLETE
ASOS OBSERVATIONS RESUME.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 322 AM CDT FRI AUG 29 2014/

SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT
PATTERN THIS MORNING FEATURES RIDGING CENTERED OFF OF THE COASTS OF
SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA AND GEORGIA. IN BETWEEN THE TWO ANTICYCLONES IS
A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE...CLEARLY VISIBLE ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY
THIS MORNING...MOVING THROUGH THE CENTRAL PLAINS. MODELS ALL IN
BASIC AGREEMENT THAT THIS PATTERN WILL MORPH INTO ONE FEATURING A
BROAD CYCLONIC FLOW OVER THE NORTHERN PART OF THE NATION AND UPPER
RIDGING BEGINNING TO REESTABLISH IT SELF OVER THE SOUTH BY THE END
OF THE PERIOD. WITH MODELS IN BASIC AGREEMENT...WILL CONTINUE TO
BLEND MODEL SOLUTIONS WITH A LEAN TOWARDS THE MORE CONSISTENT ECMWF.

CURRENT RADAR INDICATES AN AREA OF ELEVATED CONVECTION OVER THE
SOUTHERN PART OF THE STATE ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAK SHORT WAVE MOVING
THROUGH. SHORT TERM HIGH RES MODELS MOVE THIS AREA NORTHWARD THIS
MORNING AND WILL HAVE TO INCLUDE SOME POPS. ANOTHER AREA OF PRECIP
ASSOCIATED WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED UPPER TROUGH WAS LOCATED IN
CENTRAL OKLAHOMA. THIS AREA IS FORECAST TO LARGELY DISSIPATE AS IT
MOVES EASTWARD BUT WILL ILL BACK IN LATER THIS AFTERNOON AS THE
TROUGH MOVES INTO WESTERN ARKANSAS.

SCATTERED POPS REMAIN WARRANTED ACROSS THE STATE TODAY...ESPECIALLY
THIS AFTERNOON...AS THE TROUGH APPROACHES. MAIN TROUGH AXIS MOVES
THROUGH SATURDAY WHICH IS WHEN THE BEST CHANCES OF WIDESPREAD
PRECIPITATION WILL OCCUR. BELIEVE HIGHER POPS ARE NEEDED OVER THE
SOUTHEAST SATURDAY NIGHT AS ADDITIONAL MOISTURE IS INTRODUCED FROM A
WESTWARD MOVING WAVE IN THE NORTHERN GULF.

ONLY SCATTERED POPS WILL BE CARRIED OVER THE SOUTHEAST SUNDAY AS THE
SYSTEM PULLS AWAY. ANOTHER WAVE WILL PASS TO THE NORTH OF THE STATE
MONDAY AND POPS WILL BE PULLED BACK TO JUST ALONG THE MISSOURI
BORDER. BASICALLY A DRY HOLIDAY IS EXPECTED FOR JUST ABOUT EVERYONE.
BROAD UPPER RIDGING BEGINS TO BUILD BACK OVER THE REGION AS THE
PERIOD ENDS.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL TODAY BEFORE FALLING TO NEAR
NORMAL OR A TOUCH BELOW SATURDAY AND SUNDAY THANKS TO CLOUDS AND
RAIN IN THE AREA. TEMPERATURES REBOUND LABOR DAY. MAV/MEX NUMBERS
LOOK REASONABLE AND ARE GENERALLY ACCEPTED.

SHORT TERM...TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY
MODELS HAVE SHOWN SOME SLIGHT BUT NOTICEABLE TRENDS IN THE LAST 24
HOURS...NAMELY MOVING TOWARDS A WARMER AND DRIER FORECAST. THE
LATEST RUNS SHOW UPPER LEVEL RIDGING STRENGTHENING OVER THE
SOUTHEAST CONUS AS WE MOVE INTO LATE NEXT WEEK. IT IS NOT A HIGH
AMPLITUDE RIDGE SO SCORCHING HEAT IS NOT EXPECTED...BUT NONETHELESS
DID GO AHEAD AND BUMP TEMPERATURES UP EACH DAY. THE OTHER
CONSEQUENCE OF STRONGER FORECAST HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE TO FEND OFF
THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY THAT WAS PREVIOUSLY FORECAST TO MOVE INTO THE
NORTHERN REACHES OF THE FORECAST AREA ON TUESDAY. DID GO AHEAD AND
LEAVE SOME SLIGHT RAIN CHANCES IN THE NORTH AND NORTHEAST FOR
TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY GIVEN THE PROXIMITY OF THE FRONT AND IMPULES
PASSING BY TO THE NORTH OF THE STATE. HOWEVER WITH THE CURRENT SET
OF MODEL RUNS THIS MAY BE A LITTLE GENEROUS. BUT MOVING INTO
THURSDAY IT APPEARS A DRY FORECAST IS IN ORDER.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BATESVILLE AR     91  71  86  70 /  30  60  60  40
CAMDEN AR         93  72  83  71 /  30  50  70  50
HARRISON AR       88  69  87  68 /  50  60  50  30
HOT SPRINGS AR    91  72  83  70 /  40  50  60  30
LITTLE ROCK   AR  92  72  85  71 /  30  50  60  40
MONTICELLO AR     94  73  84  72 /  30  50  70  60
MOUNT IDA AR      90  71  83  70 /  40  50  50  30
MOUNTAIN HOME AR  90  70  88  68 /  40  60  50  30
NEWPORT AR        92  71  83  70 /  20  50  70  50
PINE BLUFF AR     92  72  84  71 /  30  50  70  60
RUSSELLVILLE AR   90  71  88  69 /  40  60  50  30
SEARCY AR         92  71  85  71 /  30  50  60  50
STUTTGART AR      92  71  85  71 /  20  50  70  60
&&

.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&

$$


AVIATION...64








000
FXUS64 KLZK 290824
AFDLZK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
322 AM CDT FRI AUG 29 2014

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT
PATTERN THIS MORNING FEATURES RIDGING CENTERED OFF OF THE COASTS OF
SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA AND GEORGIA. IN BETWEEN THE TWO ANTICYCLONES IS
A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE...CLEARLY VISIBLE ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY
THIS MORNING...MOVING THROUGH THE CENTRAL PLAINS. MODELS ALL IN
BASIC AGREEMENT THAT THIS PATTERN WILL MORPH INTO ONE FEATURING A
BROAD CYCLONIC FLOW OVER THE NORTHERN PART OF THE NATION AND UPPER
RIDGING BEGINNING TO REESTABLISH IT SELF OVER THE SOUTH BY THE END
OF THE PERIOD. WITH MODELS IN BASIC AGREEMENT...WILL CONTINUE TO
BLEND MODEL SOLUTIONS WITH A LEAN TOWARDS THE MORE CONSISTENT ECMWF.

CURRENT RADAR INDICATES AN AREA OF ELEVATED CONVECTION OVER THE
SOUTHERN PART OF THE STATE ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAK SHORT WAVE MOVING
THROUGH. SHORT TERM HIGH RES MODELS MOVE THIS AREA NORTHWARD THIS
MORNING AND WILL HAVE TO INCLUDE SOME POPS. ANOTHER AREA OF PRECIP
ASSOCIATED WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED UPPER TROUGH WAS LOCATED IN
CENTRAL OKLAHOMA. THIS AREA IS FORECAST TO LARGELY DISSIPATE AS IT
MOVES EASTWARD BUT WILL ILL BACK IN LATER THIS AFTERNOON AS THE
TROUGH MOVES INTO WESTERN ARKANSAS.

SCATTERED POPS REMAIN WARRANTED ACROSS THE STATE TODAY...ESPECIALLY
THIS AFTERNOON...AS THE TROUGH APPROACHES. MAIN TROUGH AXIS MOVES
THROUGH SATURDAY WHICH IS WHEN THE BEST CHANCES OF WIDESPREAD
PRECIPITATION WILL OCCUR. BELIEVE HIGHER POPS ARE NEEDED OVER THE
SOUTHEAST SATURDAY NIGHT AS ADDITIONAL MOISTURE IS INTRODUCED FROM A
WESTWARD MOVING WAVE IN THE NORTHERN GULF.

ONLY SCATTERED POPS WILL BE CARRIED OVER THE SOUTHEAST SUNDAY AS THE
SYSTEM PULLS AWAY. ANOTHER WAVE WILL PASS TO THE NORTH OF THE STATE
MONDAY AND POPS WILL BE PULLED BACK TO JUST ALONG THE MISSOURI
BORDER. BASICALLY A DRY HOLIDAY IS EXPECTED FOR JUST ABOUT EVERYONE.
BROAD UPPER RIDGING BEGINS TO BUILD BACK OVER THE REGION AS THE
PERIOD ENDS.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL TODAY BEFORE FALLING TO NEAR
NORMAL OR A TOUCH BELOW SATURDAY AND SUNDAY THANKS TO CLOUDS AND
RAIN IN THE AREA. TEMPERATURES REBOUND LABOR DAY. MAV/MEX NUMBERS
LOOK REASONABLE AND ARE GENERALLY ACCEPTED.
&&

.SHORT TERM...TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY
MODELS HAVE SHOWN SOME SLIGHT BUT NOTICEABLE TRENDS IN THE LAST 24
HOURS...NAMELY MOVING TOWARDS A WARMER AND DRIER FORECAST. THE
LATEST RUNS SHOW UPPER LEVEL RIDGING STRENGTHENING OVER THE
SOUTHEAST CONUS AS WE MOVE INTO LATE NEXT WEEK. IT IS NOT A HIGH
AMPLITUDE RIDGE SO SCORCHING HEAT IS NOT EXPECTED...BUT NONETHELESS
DID GO AHEAD AND BUMP TEMPERATURES UP EACH DAY. THE OTHER
CONSEQUENCE OF STRONGER FORECAST HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE TO FEND OFF
THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY THAT WAS PREVIOUSLY FORECAST TO MOVE INTO THE
NORTHERN REACHES OF THE FORECAST AREA ON TUESDAY. DID GO AHEAD AND
LEAVE SOME SLIGHT RAIN CHANCES IN THE NORTH AND NORTHEAST FOR
TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY GIVEN THE PROXIMITY OF THE FRONT AND IMPULES
PASSING BY TO THE NORTH OF THE STATE. HOWEVER WITH THE CURRENT SET
OF MODEL RUNS THIS MAY BE A LITTLE GENEROUS. BUT MOVING INTO
THURSDAY IT APPEARS A DRY FORECAST IS IN ORDER.
&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BATESVILLE AR     91  71  86  70 /  30  60  60  40
CAMDEN AR         93  72  83  71 /  30  50  70  50
HARRISON AR       88  69  87  68 /  50  60  50  30
HOT SPRINGS AR    91  72  83  70 /  40  50  60  30
LITTLE ROCK   AR  92  72  85  71 /  30  50  60  40
MONTICELLO AR     94  73  84  72 /  30  50  70  60
MOUNT IDA AR      90  71  83  70 /  40  50  50  30
MOUNTAIN HOME AR  90  70  88  68 /  40  60  50  30
NEWPORT AR        92  71  83  70 /  20  50  70  50
PINE BLUFF AR     92  72  84  71 /  30  50  70  60
RUSSELLVILLE AR   90  71  88  69 /  40  60  50  30
SEARCY AR         92  71  85  71 /  30  50  60  50
STUTTGART AR      92  71  85  71 /  20  50  70  60
&&

.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&

$$

56








000
FXUS64 KLZK 290824
AFDLZK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
322 AM CDT FRI AUG 29 2014

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT
PATTERN THIS MORNING FEATURES RIDGING CENTERED OFF OF THE COASTS OF
SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA AND GEORGIA. IN BETWEEN THE TWO ANTICYCLONES IS
A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE...CLEARLY VISIBLE ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY
THIS MORNING...MOVING THROUGH THE CENTRAL PLAINS. MODELS ALL IN
BASIC AGREEMENT THAT THIS PATTERN WILL MORPH INTO ONE FEATURING A
BROAD CYCLONIC FLOW OVER THE NORTHERN PART OF THE NATION AND UPPER
RIDGING BEGINNING TO REESTABLISH IT SELF OVER THE SOUTH BY THE END
OF THE PERIOD. WITH MODELS IN BASIC AGREEMENT...WILL CONTINUE TO
BLEND MODEL SOLUTIONS WITH A LEAN TOWARDS THE MORE CONSISTENT ECMWF.

CURRENT RADAR INDICATES AN AREA OF ELEVATED CONVECTION OVER THE
SOUTHERN PART OF THE STATE ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAK SHORT WAVE MOVING
THROUGH. SHORT TERM HIGH RES MODELS MOVE THIS AREA NORTHWARD THIS
MORNING AND WILL HAVE TO INCLUDE SOME POPS. ANOTHER AREA OF PRECIP
ASSOCIATED WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED UPPER TROUGH WAS LOCATED IN
CENTRAL OKLAHOMA. THIS AREA IS FORECAST TO LARGELY DISSIPATE AS IT
MOVES EASTWARD BUT WILL ILL BACK IN LATER THIS AFTERNOON AS THE
TROUGH MOVES INTO WESTERN ARKANSAS.

SCATTERED POPS REMAIN WARRANTED ACROSS THE STATE TODAY...ESPECIALLY
THIS AFTERNOON...AS THE TROUGH APPROACHES. MAIN TROUGH AXIS MOVES
THROUGH SATURDAY WHICH IS WHEN THE BEST CHANCES OF WIDESPREAD
PRECIPITATION WILL OCCUR. BELIEVE HIGHER POPS ARE NEEDED OVER THE
SOUTHEAST SATURDAY NIGHT AS ADDITIONAL MOISTURE IS INTRODUCED FROM A
WESTWARD MOVING WAVE IN THE NORTHERN GULF.

ONLY SCATTERED POPS WILL BE CARRIED OVER THE SOUTHEAST SUNDAY AS THE
SYSTEM PULLS AWAY. ANOTHER WAVE WILL PASS TO THE NORTH OF THE STATE
MONDAY AND POPS WILL BE PULLED BACK TO JUST ALONG THE MISSOURI
BORDER. BASICALLY A DRY HOLIDAY IS EXPECTED FOR JUST ABOUT EVERYONE.
BROAD UPPER RIDGING BEGINS TO BUILD BACK OVER THE REGION AS THE
PERIOD ENDS.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL TODAY BEFORE FALLING TO NEAR
NORMAL OR A TOUCH BELOW SATURDAY AND SUNDAY THANKS TO CLOUDS AND
RAIN IN THE AREA. TEMPERATURES REBOUND LABOR DAY. MAV/MEX NUMBERS
LOOK REASONABLE AND ARE GENERALLY ACCEPTED.
&&

.SHORT TERM...TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY
MODELS HAVE SHOWN SOME SLIGHT BUT NOTICEABLE TRENDS IN THE LAST 24
HOURS...NAMELY MOVING TOWARDS A WARMER AND DRIER FORECAST. THE
LATEST RUNS SHOW UPPER LEVEL RIDGING STRENGTHENING OVER THE
SOUTHEAST CONUS AS WE MOVE INTO LATE NEXT WEEK. IT IS NOT A HIGH
AMPLITUDE RIDGE SO SCORCHING HEAT IS NOT EXPECTED...BUT NONETHELESS
DID GO AHEAD AND BUMP TEMPERATURES UP EACH DAY. THE OTHER
CONSEQUENCE OF STRONGER FORECAST HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE TO FEND OFF
THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY THAT WAS PREVIOUSLY FORECAST TO MOVE INTO THE
NORTHERN REACHES OF THE FORECAST AREA ON TUESDAY. DID GO AHEAD AND
LEAVE SOME SLIGHT RAIN CHANCES IN THE NORTH AND NORTHEAST FOR
TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY GIVEN THE PROXIMITY OF THE FRONT AND IMPULES
PASSING BY TO THE NORTH OF THE STATE. HOWEVER WITH THE CURRENT SET
OF MODEL RUNS THIS MAY BE A LITTLE GENEROUS. BUT MOVING INTO
THURSDAY IT APPEARS A DRY FORECAST IS IN ORDER.
&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BATESVILLE AR     91  71  86  70 /  30  60  60  40
CAMDEN AR         93  72  83  71 /  30  50  70  50
HARRISON AR       88  69  87  68 /  50  60  50  30
HOT SPRINGS AR    91  72  83  70 /  40  50  60  30
LITTLE ROCK   AR  92  72  85  71 /  30  50  60  40
MONTICELLO AR     94  73  84  72 /  30  50  70  60
MOUNT IDA AR      90  71  83  70 /  40  50  50  30
MOUNTAIN HOME AR  90  70  88  68 /  40  60  50  30
NEWPORT AR        92  71  83  70 /  20  50  70  50
PINE BLUFF AR     92  72  84  71 /  30  50  70  60
RUSSELLVILLE AR   90  71  88  69 /  40  60  50  30
SEARCY AR         92  71  85  71 /  30  50  60  50
STUTTGART AR      92  71  85  71 /  20  50  70  60
&&

.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&

$$

56









000
FXUS64 KLZK 290552 AAC
AFDLZK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
1252 AM CDT FRI AUG 29 2014

.DISCUSSION...

UPDATED FOR THE 06Z AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

&&

.AVIATION...

SCT CONVECTION HAS DEVELOPED IN SW ARKANSAS OVER THE LAST COUPLE
OF HOURS AND LINES UP REALLY WELL WITH HIGH RES MODEL FORECASTS.
HAVE INCLUDED ABOUT 4 HOURS OF VCTS FOR KHOT...KADF...KPBF...AND
KLIT EARLY IN THE TAF CYCLE TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS AS IT MOVES NORTH.
THIS SHOULD LIFT NORTH OF ALL TAF SITES BY 12Z-14Z TIME
FRAME...AFTERWARD TERMINALS SHOULD BE FREE OF CONVECTION UNTIL A
LINE OF SHRA/TSRA MOVES INTO NW ARKANSAS AROUND 18Z-20Z OR SO.
HAVE TEMPO TSRA IN AT NORTHWEST SITES TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS. FOR
CENTRAL ARKANSAS TERMINALS...HAVE EITHER VCTS OR VCSH TO ACCOUNT
FOR FRI AFTERNOON/EVENING CONVECTION AS CONFIDENCE IN LINE OF
STORMS HOLDING TOGETHER THAT FAR INTO ARKANSAS IS NOT EXTREMELY
HIGH. FOR KPBF AND KLLQ...IT IS DOUBTFUL THEY WILL GET IN ON THE
LINE OF STORMS FROM THE NORTHWEST...BUT MAY SEE POP UP STORMS WITH
MOISTURE PLUME MOVING NORTH FROM LOUISIANA. LEFT KPBF FREE OF ANY
AFTERNOON CONVECTION BUT DID MENTION VICINITY THUNDER AT KLLQ.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 952 PM CDT THU AUG 28 2014/

UPDATE...

OVERALL FCST IN ON TRACK WITH JUST A FEW ADJUSTMENTS MADE. SOME OF
THE RAPID UPDATE MODEL DATA CONT TO SUGGEST WDLY SCTD ELEVATED
SHRA/TSRA FORMING ACRS PARTS OF WRN AND CNTRL AR LATER TNGT AS A
WEAK SHRTWV APCHS THE REGION. ALREADY SEEING SOME MID LVL CLOUD
FORMATION ACRS SWRN AR...WITH A FEW SHOWERS NOTED OVR FAR SWRN AR.
WENT AHEAD AND ADDED SLGT CHC POPS LATER TNGT FOR MAINLY W-CNTRL
AND PARTS OF CNTRL AR. UPDATED HRLY TEMPS TO REFLECT CURRENT
TRENDS. UPDATED PRODUCTS HAVE ALREADY BEEN SENT. /44/


PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 251 PM CDT THU AUG 28 2014/

SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT
UPPER LOW PRESSURE IS OVER THE HIGH PLAINS THIS AFTERNOON WITH UPPER
RIDGES OVER THE SOUTHWEST AND SOUTHEAST. THIS UPPER LOW WILL MOVE
INTO THE MIDWEST FRIDAY AND THE GREAT LAKES ON SATURDAY. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE SOUTHEAST SUNDAY.

CURRENT RADAR OBSERVATIONS INDICATE ISOLATED SHOWERS IN SOUTHWEST
ARKANSAS AND THE BOOT HEEL OF MISSOURI. BEST CHANCES FOR SHOWERS TO
DEVELOP IN OUR CWFA WILL BE IN THE SOUTHWEST AND NORTHEAST. A COLD
FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE PLAINS AND STALL TONIGHT. THIS WILL
INCREASE RAIN CHANCES FOR OUR AREA AS THE ATMOSPHERE WILL
DESTABILIZE. RAIN CHANCES WILL INCREASE FROM WEST TO EAST FRIDAY.

THE BEST CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE SATURDAY. AN
AREA OF MOISTURE WILL SURGE NORTH FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO AND HELP
FEED THUNDERSTORMS. THE SHORT WAVE WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL MOVE EAST
OF THE AREA SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND DIMINISH THE CHANCES OF RAIN. LOWS
TONIGHT WILL BE IN THE UPPER 60S TO MID 70S AND HIGHS FRIDAY WILL BE
IN THE UPPER 80S TO MID 90S. NEAR TO ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE
EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD.

LONG TERM...MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY
THERE IS SOME MODEL DISAGREEMENT IN THE LONG TERM...WITH ONE CAMP
BEING FAIRLY PROGRESSIVE...AND ANOTHER BEING BLOCKY. ALL WILL DEPEND
ON IF OR HOW FAR NORTH UPPER RIDGING BUILDS BACK IN...AND HOW CLOSE
A FRONT MOVES INTO THE REGION AROUND MID WEEK. REGARDLESS IF THE
RIDGE BUILDS BACK IN OR NOT...THERE WILL BE UPPER WAVES MOVING
THROUGH AROUND THE PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE. THIS...WITH THE CLOSE
PROXIMITY OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL BE ENOUGH TO ALLOW FOR SMALL
RAIN CHANCES THROUGH THE PERIOD.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE CLOSE TO AVERAGE...BUT LARGELY DEPENDENT ON
CLOUD COVER AND ANY RAIN THAT FALLS. TRENDED CLOSE TO OR A LITTLE
UNDER RAW GFS AND EURO NUMBERS...AS GFS MOS SEEMS A BIT TOO WARM
GIVEN THE AFOREMENTIONED PATTERN EXPECTED.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BATESVILLE AR     91  71  87  70 /  30  50  60  40
CAMDEN AR         93  72  84  71 /  30  40  60  30
HARRISON AR       88  69  88  68 /  50  60  50  30
HOT SPRINGS AR    91  72  84  70 /  40  40  50  30
LITTLE ROCK   AR  92  72  86  71 /  30  40  60  40
MONTICELLO AR     94  73  85  72 /  20  40  70  40
MOUNT IDA AR      90  71  84  70 /  40  40  50  30
MOUNTAIN HOME AR  90  70  89  68 /  40  60  60  40
NEWPORT AR        92  71  84  70 /  20  50  70  40
PINE BLUFF AR     92  72  85  71 /  30  40  60  40
RUSSELLVILLE AR   90  71  89  69 /  40  50  50  30
SEARCY AR         92  71  86  71 /  30  50  60  40
STUTTGART AR      92  71  86  71 /  20  40  70  40
&&

.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&

$$


AVIATION...64








000
FXUS64 KLZK 290552 AAC
AFDLZK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
1252 AM CDT FRI AUG 29 2014

.DISCUSSION...

UPDATED FOR THE 06Z AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

&&

.AVIATION...

SCT CONVECTION HAS DEVELOPED IN SW ARKANSAS OVER THE LAST COUPLE
OF HOURS AND LINES UP REALLY WELL WITH HIGH RES MODEL FORECASTS.
HAVE INCLUDED ABOUT 4 HOURS OF VCTS FOR KHOT...KADF...KPBF...AND
KLIT EARLY IN THE TAF CYCLE TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS AS IT MOVES NORTH.
THIS SHOULD LIFT NORTH OF ALL TAF SITES BY 12Z-14Z TIME
FRAME...AFTERWARD TERMINALS SHOULD BE FREE OF CONVECTION UNTIL A
LINE OF SHRA/TSRA MOVES INTO NW ARKANSAS AROUND 18Z-20Z OR SO.
HAVE TEMPO TSRA IN AT NORTHWEST SITES TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS. FOR
CENTRAL ARKANSAS TERMINALS...HAVE EITHER VCTS OR VCSH TO ACCOUNT
FOR FRI AFTERNOON/EVENING CONVECTION AS CONFIDENCE IN LINE OF
STORMS HOLDING TOGETHER THAT FAR INTO ARKANSAS IS NOT EXTREMELY
HIGH. FOR KPBF AND KLLQ...IT IS DOUBTFUL THEY WILL GET IN ON THE
LINE OF STORMS FROM THE NORTHWEST...BUT MAY SEE POP UP STORMS WITH
MOISTURE PLUME MOVING NORTH FROM LOUISIANA. LEFT KPBF FREE OF ANY
AFTERNOON CONVECTION BUT DID MENTION VICINITY THUNDER AT KLLQ.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 952 PM CDT THU AUG 28 2014/

UPDATE...

OVERALL FCST IN ON TRACK WITH JUST A FEW ADJUSTMENTS MADE. SOME OF
THE RAPID UPDATE MODEL DATA CONT TO SUGGEST WDLY SCTD ELEVATED
SHRA/TSRA FORMING ACRS PARTS OF WRN AND CNTRL AR LATER TNGT AS A
WEAK SHRTWV APCHS THE REGION. ALREADY SEEING SOME MID LVL CLOUD
FORMATION ACRS SWRN AR...WITH A FEW SHOWERS NOTED OVR FAR SWRN AR.
WENT AHEAD AND ADDED SLGT CHC POPS LATER TNGT FOR MAINLY W-CNTRL
AND PARTS OF CNTRL AR. UPDATED HRLY TEMPS TO REFLECT CURRENT
TRENDS. UPDATED PRODUCTS HAVE ALREADY BEEN SENT. /44/


PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 251 PM CDT THU AUG 28 2014/

SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT
UPPER LOW PRESSURE IS OVER THE HIGH PLAINS THIS AFTERNOON WITH UPPER
RIDGES OVER THE SOUTHWEST AND SOUTHEAST. THIS UPPER LOW WILL MOVE
INTO THE MIDWEST FRIDAY AND THE GREAT LAKES ON SATURDAY. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE SOUTHEAST SUNDAY.

CURRENT RADAR OBSERVATIONS INDICATE ISOLATED SHOWERS IN SOUTHWEST
ARKANSAS AND THE BOOT HEEL OF MISSOURI. BEST CHANCES FOR SHOWERS TO
DEVELOP IN OUR CWFA WILL BE IN THE SOUTHWEST AND NORTHEAST. A COLD
FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE PLAINS AND STALL TONIGHT. THIS WILL
INCREASE RAIN CHANCES FOR OUR AREA AS THE ATMOSPHERE WILL
DESTABILIZE. RAIN CHANCES WILL INCREASE FROM WEST TO EAST FRIDAY.

THE BEST CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE SATURDAY. AN
AREA OF MOISTURE WILL SURGE NORTH FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO AND HELP
FEED THUNDERSTORMS. THE SHORT WAVE WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL MOVE EAST
OF THE AREA SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND DIMINISH THE CHANCES OF RAIN. LOWS
TONIGHT WILL BE IN THE UPPER 60S TO MID 70S AND HIGHS FRIDAY WILL BE
IN THE UPPER 80S TO MID 90S. NEAR TO ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE
EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD.

LONG TERM...MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY
THERE IS SOME MODEL DISAGREEMENT IN THE LONG TERM...WITH ONE CAMP
BEING FAIRLY PROGRESSIVE...AND ANOTHER BEING BLOCKY. ALL WILL DEPEND
ON IF OR HOW FAR NORTH UPPER RIDGING BUILDS BACK IN...AND HOW CLOSE
A FRONT MOVES INTO THE REGION AROUND MID WEEK. REGARDLESS IF THE
RIDGE BUILDS BACK IN OR NOT...THERE WILL BE UPPER WAVES MOVING
THROUGH AROUND THE PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE. THIS...WITH THE CLOSE
PROXIMITY OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL BE ENOUGH TO ALLOW FOR SMALL
RAIN CHANCES THROUGH THE PERIOD.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE CLOSE TO AVERAGE...BUT LARGELY DEPENDENT ON
CLOUD COVER AND ANY RAIN THAT FALLS. TRENDED CLOSE TO OR A LITTLE
UNDER RAW GFS AND EURO NUMBERS...AS GFS MOS SEEMS A BIT TOO WARM
GIVEN THE AFOREMENTIONED PATTERN EXPECTED.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BATESVILLE AR     91  71  87  70 /  30  50  60  40
CAMDEN AR         93  72  84  71 /  30  40  60  30
HARRISON AR       88  69  88  68 /  50  60  50  30
HOT SPRINGS AR    91  72  84  70 /  40  40  50  30
LITTLE ROCK   AR  92  72  86  71 /  30  40  60  40
MONTICELLO AR     94  73  85  72 /  20  40  70  40
MOUNT IDA AR      90  71  84  70 /  40  40  50  30
MOUNTAIN HOME AR  90  70  89  68 /  40  60  60  40
NEWPORT AR        92  71  84  70 /  20  50  70  40
PINE BLUFF AR     92  72  85  71 /  30  40  60  40
RUSSELLVILLE AR   90  71  89  69 /  40  50  50  30
SEARCY AR         92  71  86  71 /  30  50  60  40
STUTTGART AR      92  71  86  71 /  20  40  70  40
&&

.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&

$$


AVIATION...64








000
FXUS64 KLZK 290552 AAC
AFDLZK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
1252 AM CDT FRI AUG 29 2014

.DISCUSSION...

UPDATED FOR THE 06Z AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

&&

.AVIATION...

SCT CONVECTION HAS DEVELOPED IN SW ARKANSAS OVER THE LAST COUPLE
OF HOURS AND LINES UP REALLY WELL WITH HIGH RES MODEL FORECASTS.
HAVE INCLUDED ABOUT 4 HOURS OF VCTS FOR KHOT...KADF...KPBF...AND
KLIT EARLY IN THE TAF CYCLE TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS AS IT MOVES NORTH.
THIS SHOULD LIFT NORTH OF ALL TAF SITES BY 12Z-14Z TIME
FRAME...AFTERWARD TERMINALS SHOULD BE FREE OF CONVECTION UNTIL A
LINE OF SHRA/TSRA MOVES INTO NW ARKANSAS AROUND 18Z-20Z OR SO.
HAVE TEMPO TSRA IN AT NORTHWEST SITES TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS. FOR
CENTRAL ARKANSAS TERMINALS...HAVE EITHER VCTS OR VCSH TO ACCOUNT
FOR FRI AFTERNOON/EVENING CONVECTION AS CONFIDENCE IN LINE OF
STORMS HOLDING TOGETHER THAT FAR INTO ARKANSAS IS NOT EXTREMELY
HIGH. FOR KPBF AND KLLQ...IT IS DOUBTFUL THEY WILL GET IN ON THE
LINE OF STORMS FROM THE NORTHWEST...BUT MAY SEE POP UP STORMS WITH
MOISTURE PLUME MOVING NORTH FROM LOUISIANA. LEFT KPBF FREE OF ANY
AFTERNOON CONVECTION BUT DID MENTION VICINITY THUNDER AT KLLQ.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 952 PM CDT THU AUG 28 2014/

UPDATE...

OVERALL FCST IN ON TRACK WITH JUST A FEW ADJUSTMENTS MADE. SOME OF
THE RAPID UPDATE MODEL DATA CONT TO SUGGEST WDLY SCTD ELEVATED
SHRA/TSRA FORMING ACRS PARTS OF WRN AND CNTRL AR LATER TNGT AS A
WEAK SHRTWV APCHS THE REGION. ALREADY SEEING SOME MID LVL CLOUD
FORMATION ACRS SWRN AR...WITH A FEW SHOWERS NOTED OVR FAR SWRN AR.
WENT AHEAD AND ADDED SLGT CHC POPS LATER TNGT FOR MAINLY W-CNTRL
AND PARTS OF CNTRL AR. UPDATED HRLY TEMPS TO REFLECT CURRENT
TRENDS. UPDATED PRODUCTS HAVE ALREADY BEEN SENT. /44/


PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 251 PM CDT THU AUG 28 2014/

SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT
UPPER LOW PRESSURE IS OVER THE HIGH PLAINS THIS AFTERNOON WITH UPPER
RIDGES OVER THE SOUTHWEST AND SOUTHEAST. THIS UPPER LOW WILL MOVE
INTO THE MIDWEST FRIDAY AND THE GREAT LAKES ON SATURDAY. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE SOUTHEAST SUNDAY.

CURRENT RADAR OBSERVATIONS INDICATE ISOLATED SHOWERS IN SOUTHWEST
ARKANSAS AND THE BOOT HEEL OF MISSOURI. BEST CHANCES FOR SHOWERS TO
DEVELOP IN OUR CWFA WILL BE IN THE SOUTHWEST AND NORTHEAST. A COLD
FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE PLAINS AND STALL TONIGHT. THIS WILL
INCREASE RAIN CHANCES FOR OUR AREA AS THE ATMOSPHERE WILL
DESTABILIZE. RAIN CHANCES WILL INCREASE FROM WEST TO EAST FRIDAY.

THE BEST CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE SATURDAY. AN
AREA OF MOISTURE WILL SURGE NORTH FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO AND HELP
FEED THUNDERSTORMS. THE SHORT WAVE WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL MOVE EAST
OF THE AREA SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND DIMINISH THE CHANCES OF RAIN. LOWS
TONIGHT WILL BE IN THE UPPER 60S TO MID 70S AND HIGHS FRIDAY WILL BE
IN THE UPPER 80S TO MID 90S. NEAR TO ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE
EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD.

LONG TERM...MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY
THERE IS SOME MODEL DISAGREEMENT IN THE LONG TERM...WITH ONE CAMP
BEING FAIRLY PROGRESSIVE...AND ANOTHER BEING BLOCKY. ALL WILL DEPEND
ON IF OR HOW FAR NORTH UPPER RIDGING BUILDS BACK IN...AND HOW CLOSE
A FRONT MOVES INTO THE REGION AROUND MID WEEK. REGARDLESS IF THE
RIDGE BUILDS BACK IN OR NOT...THERE WILL BE UPPER WAVES MOVING
THROUGH AROUND THE PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE. THIS...WITH THE CLOSE
PROXIMITY OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL BE ENOUGH TO ALLOW FOR SMALL
RAIN CHANCES THROUGH THE PERIOD.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE CLOSE TO AVERAGE...BUT LARGELY DEPENDENT ON
CLOUD COVER AND ANY RAIN THAT FALLS. TRENDED CLOSE TO OR A LITTLE
UNDER RAW GFS AND EURO NUMBERS...AS GFS MOS SEEMS A BIT TOO WARM
GIVEN THE AFOREMENTIONED PATTERN EXPECTED.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BATESVILLE AR     91  71  87  70 /  30  50  60  40
CAMDEN AR         93  72  84  71 /  30  40  60  30
HARRISON AR       88  69  88  68 /  50  60  50  30
HOT SPRINGS AR    91  72  84  70 /  40  40  50  30
LITTLE ROCK   AR  92  72  86  71 /  30  40  60  40
MONTICELLO AR     94  73  85  72 /  20  40  70  40
MOUNT IDA AR      90  71  84  70 /  40  40  50  30
MOUNTAIN HOME AR  90  70  89  68 /  40  60  60  40
NEWPORT AR        92  71  84  70 /  20  50  70  40
PINE BLUFF AR     92  72  85  71 /  30  40  60  40
RUSSELLVILLE AR   90  71  89  69 /  40  50  50  30
SEARCY AR         92  71  86  71 /  30  50  60  40
STUTTGART AR      92  71  86  71 /  20  40  70  40
&&

.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&

$$


AVIATION...64








000
FXUS64 KLZK 290552 AAC
AFDLZK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
1252 AM CDT FRI AUG 29 2014

.DISCUSSION...

UPDATED FOR THE 06Z AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

&&

.AVIATION...

SCT CONVECTION HAS DEVELOPED IN SW ARKANSAS OVER THE LAST COUPLE
OF HOURS AND LINES UP REALLY WELL WITH HIGH RES MODEL FORECASTS.
HAVE INCLUDED ABOUT 4 HOURS OF VCTS FOR KHOT...KADF...KPBF...AND
KLIT EARLY IN THE TAF CYCLE TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS AS IT MOVES NORTH.
THIS SHOULD LIFT NORTH OF ALL TAF SITES BY 12Z-14Z TIME
FRAME...AFTERWARD TERMINALS SHOULD BE FREE OF CONVECTION UNTIL A
LINE OF SHRA/TSRA MOVES INTO NW ARKANSAS AROUND 18Z-20Z OR SO.
HAVE TEMPO TSRA IN AT NORTHWEST SITES TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS. FOR
CENTRAL ARKANSAS TERMINALS...HAVE EITHER VCTS OR VCSH TO ACCOUNT
FOR FRI AFTERNOON/EVENING CONVECTION AS CONFIDENCE IN LINE OF
STORMS HOLDING TOGETHER THAT FAR INTO ARKANSAS IS NOT EXTREMELY
HIGH. FOR KPBF AND KLLQ...IT IS DOUBTFUL THEY WILL GET IN ON THE
LINE OF STORMS FROM THE NORTHWEST...BUT MAY SEE POP UP STORMS WITH
MOISTURE PLUME MOVING NORTH FROM LOUISIANA. LEFT KPBF FREE OF ANY
AFTERNOON CONVECTION BUT DID MENTION VICINITY THUNDER AT KLLQ.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 952 PM CDT THU AUG 28 2014/

UPDATE...

OVERALL FCST IN ON TRACK WITH JUST A FEW ADJUSTMENTS MADE. SOME OF
THE RAPID UPDATE MODEL DATA CONT TO SUGGEST WDLY SCTD ELEVATED
SHRA/TSRA FORMING ACRS PARTS OF WRN AND CNTRL AR LATER TNGT AS A
WEAK SHRTWV APCHS THE REGION. ALREADY SEEING SOME MID LVL CLOUD
FORMATION ACRS SWRN AR...WITH A FEW SHOWERS NOTED OVR FAR SWRN AR.
WENT AHEAD AND ADDED SLGT CHC POPS LATER TNGT FOR MAINLY W-CNTRL
AND PARTS OF CNTRL AR. UPDATED HRLY TEMPS TO REFLECT CURRENT
TRENDS. UPDATED PRODUCTS HAVE ALREADY BEEN SENT. /44/


PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 251 PM CDT THU AUG 28 2014/

SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT
UPPER LOW PRESSURE IS OVER THE HIGH PLAINS THIS AFTERNOON WITH UPPER
RIDGES OVER THE SOUTHWEST AND SOUTHEAST. THIS UPPER LOW WILL MOVE
INTO THE MIDWEST FRIDAY AND THE GREAT LAKES ON SATURDAY. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE SOUTHEAST SUNDAY.

CURRENT RADAR OBSERVATIONS INDICATE ISOLATED SHOWERS IN SOUTHWEST
ARKANSAS AND THE BOOT HEEL OF MISSOURI. BEST CHANCES FOR SHOWERS TO
DEVELOP IN OUR CWFA WILL BE IN THE SOUTHWEST AND NORTHEAST. A COLD
FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE PLAINS AND STALL TONIGHT. THIS WILL
INCREASE RAIN CHANCES FOR OUR AREA AS THE ATMOSPHERE WILL
DESTABILIZE. RAIN CHANCES WILL INCREASE FROM WEST TO EAST FRIDAY.

THE BEST CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE SATURDAY. AN
AREA OF MOISTURE WILL SURGE NORTH FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO AND HELP
FEED THUNDERSTORMS. THE SHORT WAVE WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL MOVE EAST
OF THE AREA SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND DIMINISH THE CHANCES OF RAIN. LOWS
TONIGHT WILL BE IN THE UPPER 60S TO MID 70S AND HIGHS FRIDAY WILL BE
IN THE UPPER 80S TO MID 90S. NEAR TO ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE
EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD.

LONG TERM...MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY
THERE IS SOME MODEL DISAGREEMENT IN THE LONG TERM...WITH ONE CAMP
BEING FAIRLY PROGRESSIVE...AND ANOTHER BEING BLOCKY. ALL WILL DEPEND
ON IF OR HOW FAR NORTH UPPER RIDGING BUILDS BACK IN...AND HOW CLOSE
A FRONT MOVES INTO THE REGION AROUND MID WEEK. REGARDLESS IF THE
RIDGE BUILDS BACK IN OR NOT...THERE WILL BE UPPER WAVES MOVING
THROUGH AROUND THE PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE. THIS...WITH THE CLOSE
PROXIMITY OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL BE ENOUGH TO ALLOW FOR SMALL
RAIN CHANCES THROUGH THE PERIOD.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE CLOSE TO AVERAGE...BUT LARGELY DEPENDENT ON
CLOUD COVER AND ANY RAIN THAT FALLS. TRENDED CLOSE TO OR A LITTLE
UNDER RAW GFS AND EURO NUMBERS...AS GFS MOS SEEMS A BIT TOO WARM
GIVEN THE AFOREMENTIONED PATTERN EXPECTED.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BATESVILLE AR     91  71  87  70 /  30  50  60  40
CAMDEN AR         93  72  84  71 /  30  40  60  30
HARRISON AR       88  69  88  68 /  50  60  50  30
HOT SPRINGS AR    91  72  84  70 /  40  40  50  30
LITTLE ROCK   AR  92  72  86  71 /  30  40  60  40
MONTICELLO AR     94  73  85  72 /  20  40  70  40
MOUNT IDA AR      90  71  84  70 /  40  40  50  30
MOUNTAIN HOME AR  90  70  89  68 /  40  60  60  40
NEWPORT AR        92  71  84  70 /  20  50  70  40
PINE BLUFF AR     92  72  85  71 /  30  40  60  40
RUSSELLVILLE AR   90  71  89  69 /  40  50  50  30
SEARCY AR         92  71  86  71 /  30  50  60  40
STUTTGART AR      92  71  86  71 /  20  40  70  40
&&

.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&

$$


AVIATION...64








000
FXUS64 KLZK 290252
AFDLZK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
952 PM CDT THU AUG 28 2014

.UPDATE...

OVERALL FCST IN ON TRACK WITH JUST A FEW ADJUSTMENTS MADE. SOME OF
THE RAPID UPDATE MODEL DATA CONT TO SUGGEST WDLY SCTD ELEVATED
SHRA/TSRA FORMING ACRS PARTS OF WRN AND CNTRL AR LATER TNGT AS A
WEAK SHRTWV APCHS THE REGION. ALREADY SEEING SOME MID LVL CLOUD
FORMATION ACRS SWRN AR...WITH A FEW SHOWERS NOTED OVR FAR SWRN AR.
WENT AHEAD AND ADDED SLGT CHC POPS LATER TNGT FOR MAINLY W-CNTRL
AND PARTS OF CNTRL AR. UPDATED HRLY TEMPS TO REFLECT CURRENT
TRENDS. UPDATED PRODUCTS HAVE ALREADY BEEN SENT. /44/
&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 637 PM CDT THU AUG 28 2014/

AVIATION...

LIGHT SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE STATE
OVERNIGHT...WITH CLOUDS SLOWLY INCREASING FROM THE WEST AS
A STORM SYSTEM APPROACHES. CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORM
WILL INCREASE THROUGH THE PERIOD...WITH VCSH AND -TSRA EXPECTED.
HOWEVER...THE BEST CHANCES FOR WIDESPREAD STORMS WILL BE BEYOND
THIS 00Z TAF FORECAST.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 251 PM CDT THU AUG 28 2014/

SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT
UPPER LOW PRESSURE IS OVER THE HIGH PLAINS THIS AFTERNOON WITH UPPER
RIDGES OVER THE SOUTHWEST AND SOUTHEAST. THIS UPPER LOW WILL MOVE
INTO THE MIDWEST FRIDAY AND THE GREAT LAKES ON SATURDAY. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE SOUTHEAST SUNDAY.

CURRENT RADAR OBSERVATIONS INDICATE ISOLATED SHOWERS IN SOUTHWEST
ARKANSAS AND THE BOOT HEEL OF MISSOURI. BEST CHANCES FOR SHOWERS TO
DEVELOP IN OUR CWFA WILL BE IN THE SOUTHWEST AND NORTHEAST. A COLD
FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE PLAINS AND STALL TONIGHT. THIS WILL
INCREASE RAIN CHANCES FOR OUR AREA AS THE ATMOSPHERE WILL
DESTABILIZE. RAIN CHANCES WILL INCREASE FROM WEST TO EAST FRIDAY.

THE BEST CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE SATURDAY. AN
AREA OF MOISTURE WILL SURGE NORTH FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO AND HELP
FEED THUNDERSTORMS. THE SHORT WAVE WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL MOVE EAST
OF THE AREA SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND DIMINISH THE CHANCES OF RAIN. LOWS
TONIGHT WILL BE IN THE UPPER 60S TO MID 70S AND HIGHS FRIDAY WILL BE
IN THE UPPER 80S TO MID 90S. NEAR TO ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE
EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD.

LONG TERM...MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY
THERE IS SOME MODEL DISAGREEMENT IN THE LONG TERM...WITH ONE CAMP
BEING FAIRLY PROGRESSIVE...AND ANOTHER BEING BLOCKY. ALL WILL DEPEND
ON IF OR HOW FAR NORTH UPPER RIDGING BUILDS BACK IN...AND HOW CLOSE
A FRONT MOVES INTO THE REGION AROUND MID WEEK. REGARDLESS IF THE
RIDGE BUILDS BACK IN OR NOT...THERE WILL BE UPPER WAVES MOVING
THROUGH AROUND THE PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE. THIS...WITH THE CLOSE
PROXIMITY OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL BE ENOUGH TO ALLOW FOR SMALL
RAIN CHANCES THROUGH THE PERIOD.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE CLOSE TO AVERAGE...BUT LARGELY DEPENDENT ON
CLOUD COVER AND ANY RAIN THAT FALLS. TRENDED CLOSE TO OR A LITTLE
UNDER RAW GFS AND EURO NUMBERS...AS GFS MOS SEEMS A BIT TOO WARM
GIVEN THE AFOREMENTIONED PATTERN EXPECTED.
&&

.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&

$$





000
FXUS64 KLZK 290252
AFDLZK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
952 PM CDT THU AUG 28 2014

.UPDATE...

OVERALL FCST IN ON TRACK WITH JUST A FEW ADJUSTMENTS MADE. SOME OF
THE RAPID UPDATE MODEL DATA CONT TO SUGGEST WDLY SCTD ELEVATED
SHRA/TSRA FORMING ACRS PARTS OF WRN AND CNTRL AR LATER TNGT AS A
WEAK SHRTWV APCHS THE REGION. ALREADY SEEING SOME MID LVL CLOUD
FORMATION ACRS SWRN AR...WITH A FEW SHOWERS NOTED OVR FAR SWRN AR.
WENT AHEAD AND ADDED SLGT CHC POPS LATER TNGT FOR MAINLY W-CNTRL
AND PARTS OF CNTRL AR. UPDATED HRLY TEMPS TO REFLECT CURRENT
TRENDS. UPDATED PRODUCTS HAVE ALREADY BEEN SENT. /44/
&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 637 PM CDT THU AUG 28 2014/

AVIATION...

LIGHT SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE STATE
OVERNIGHT...WITH CLOUDS SLOWLY INCREASING FROM THE WEST AS
A STORM SYSTEM APPROACHES. CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORM
WILL INCREASE THROUGH THE PERIOD...WITH VCSH AND -TSRA EXPECTED.
HOWEVER...THE BEST CHANCES FOR WIDESPREAD STORMS WILL BE BEYOND
THIS 00Z TAF FORECAST.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 251 PM CDT THU AUG 28 2014/

SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT
UPPER LOW PRESSURE IS OVER THE HIGH PLAINS THIS AFTERNOON WITH UPPER
RIDGES OVER THE SOUTHWEST AND SOUTHEAST. THIS UPPER LOW WILL MOVE
INTO THE MIDWEST FRIDAY AND THE GREAT LAKES ON SATURDAY. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE SOUTHEAST SUNDAY.

CURRENT RADAR OBSERVATIONS INDICATE ISOLATED SHOWERS IN SOUTHWEST
ARKANSAS AND THE BOOT HEEL OF MISSOURI. BEST CHANCES FOR SHOWERS TO
DEVELOP IN OUR CWFA WILL BE IN THE SOUTHWEST AND NORTHEAST. A COLD
FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE PLAINS AND STALL TONIGHT. THIS WILL
INCREASE RAIN CHANCES FOR OUR AREA AS THE ATMOSPHERE WILL
DESTABILIZE. RAIN CHANCES WILL INCREASE FROM WEST TO EAST FRIDAY.

THE BEST CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE SATURDAY. AN
AREA OF MOISTURE WILL SURGE NORTH FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO AND HELP
FEED THUNDERSTORMS. THE SHORT WAVE WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL MOVE EAST
OF THE AREA SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND DIMINISH THE CHANCES OF RAIN. LOWS
TONIGHT WILL BE IN THE UPPER 60S TO MID 70S AND HIGHS FRIDAY WILL BE
IN THE UPPER 80S TO MID 90S. NEAR TO ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE
EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD.

LONG TERM...MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY
THERE IS SOME MODEL DISAGREEMENT IN THE LONG TERM...WITH ONE CAMP
BEING FAIRLY PROGRESSIVE...AND ANOTHER BEING BLOCKY. ALL WILL DEPEND
ON IF OR HOW FAR NORTH UPPER RIDGING BUILDS BACK IN...AND HOW CLOSE
A FRONT MOVES INTO THE REGION AROUND MID WEEK. REGARDLESS IF THE
RIDGE BUILDS BACK IN OR NOT...THERE WILL BE UPPER WAVES MOVING
THROUGH AROUND THE PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE. THIS...WITH THE CLOSE
PROXIMITY OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL BE ENOUGH TO ALLOW FOR SMALL
RAIN CHANCES THROUGH THE PERIOD.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE CLOSE TO AVERAGE...BUT LARGELY DEPENDENT ON
CLOUD COVER AND ANY RAIN THAT FALLS. TRENDED CLOSE TO OR A LITTLE
UNDER RAW GFS AND EURO NUMBERS...AS GFS MOS SEEMS A BIT TOO WARM
GIVEN THE AFOREMENTIONED PATTERN EXPECTED.
&&

.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&

$$






000
FXUS64 KLZK 282337 AAA
AFDLZK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
637 PM CDT THU AUG 28 2014

.AVIATION...

LIGHT SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE STATE
OVERNIGHT...WITH CLOUDS SLOWLY INCREASING FROM THE WEST AS
A STORM SYSTEM APPROACHES. CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORM
WILL INCREASE THROUGH THE PERIOD...WITH VCSH AND -TSRA EXPECTED.
HOWEVER...THE BEST CHANCES FOR WIDESPREAD STORMS WILL BE BEYOND
THIS 00Z TAF FORECAST.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 251 PM CDT THU AUG 28 2014/

SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT
UPPER LOW PRESSURE IS OVER THE HIGH PLAINS THIS AFTERNOON WITH UPPER
RIDGES OVER THE SOUTHWEST AND SOUTHEAST. THIS UPPER LOW WILL MOVE
INTO THE MIDWEST FRIDAY AND THE GREAT LAKES ON SATURDAY. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE SOUTHEAST SUNDAY.

CURRENT RADAR OBSERVATIONS INDICATE ISOLATED SHOWERS IN SOUTHWEST
ARKANSAS AND THE BOOT HEEL OF MISSOURI. BEST CHANCES FOR SHOWERS TO
DEVELOP IN OUR CWFA WILL BE IN THE SOUTHWEST AND NORTHEAST. A COLD
FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE PLAINS AND STALL TONIGHT. THIS WILL
INCREASE RAIN CHANCES FOR OUR AREA AS THE ATMOSPHERE WILL
DESTABILIZE. RAIN CHANCES WILL INCREASE FROM WEST TO EAST FRIDAY.

THE BEST CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE SATURDAY. AN
AREA OF MOISTURE WILL SURGE NORTH FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO AND HELP
FEED THUNDERSTORMS. THE SHORT WAVE WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL MOVE EAST
OF THE AREA SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND DIMINISH THE CHANCES OF RAIN. LOWS
TONIGHT WILL BE IN THE UPPER 60S TO MID 70S AND HIGHS FRIDAY WILL BE
IN THE UPPER 80S TO MID 90S. NEAR TO ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE
EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD.

LONG TERM...MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY
THERE IS SOME MODEL DISAGREEMENT IN THE LONG TERM...WITH ONE CAMP
BEING FAIRLY PROGRESSIVE...AND ANOTHER BEING BLOCKY. ALL WILL DEPEND
ON IF OR HOW FAR NORTH UPPER RIDGING BUILDS BACK IN...AND HOW CLOSE
A FRONT MOVES INTO THE REGION AROUND MID WEEK. REGARDLESS IF THE
RIDGE BUILDS BACK IN OR NOT...THERE WILL BE UPPER WAVES MOVING
THROUGH AROUND THE PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE. THIS...WITH THE CLOSE
PROXIMITY OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL BE ENOUGH TO ALLOW FOR SMALL
RAIN CHANCES THROUGH THE PERIOD.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE CLOSE TO AVERAGE...BUT LARGELY DEPENDENT ON
CLOUD COVER AND ANY RAIN THAT FALLS. TRENDED CLOSE TO OR A LITTLE
UNDER RAW GFS AND EURO NUMBERS...AS GFS MOS SEEMS A BIT TOO WARM
GIVEN THE AFOREMENTIONED PATTERN EXPECTED.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BATESVILLE AR     67  91  71  87 /  10  30  50  60
CAMDEN AR         70  93  72  84 /  10  30  40  60
HARRISON AR       68  88  69  88 /  10  50  60  50
HOT SPRINGS AR    72  91  72  84 /  10  40  40  50
LITTLE ROCK   AR  72  92  72  86 /  10  30  40  60
MONTICELLO AR     72  94  73  85 /  10  20  40  70
MOUNT IDA AR      69  90  71  84 /  10  40  40  50
MOUNTAIN HOME AR  66  90  70  89 /  10  40  60  60
NEWPORT AR        69  92  71  84 /  10  20  50  70
PINE BLUFF AR     69  92  72  85 /  10  30  40  60
RUSSELLVILLE AR   70  90  71  89 /  10  40  50  50
SEARCY AR         68  92  71  86 /  10  30  50  60
STUTTGART AR      71  92  71  86 /  10  20  40  70
&&

.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&

$$

224
AVIATION...99







000
FXUS64 KLZK 282337 AAA
AFDLZK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
637 PM CDT THU AUG 28 2014

.AVIATION...

LIGHT SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE STATE
OVERNIGHT...WITH CLOUDS SLOWLY INCREASING FROM THE WEST AS
A STORM SYSTEM APPROACHES. CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORM
WILL INCREASE THROUGH THE PERIOD...WITH VCSH AND -TSRA EXPECTED.
HOWEVER...THE BEST CHANCES FOR WIDESPREAD STORMS WILL BE BEYOND
THIS 00Z TAF FORECAST.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 251 PM CDT THU AUG 28 2014/

SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT
UPPER LOW PRESSURE IS OVER THE HIGH PLAINS THIS AFTERNOON WITH UPPER
RIDGES OVER THE SOUTHWEST AND SOUTHEAST. THIS UPPER LOW WILL MOVE
INTO THE MIDWEST FRIDAY AND THE GREAT LAKES ON SATURDAY. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE SOUTHEAST SUNDAY.

CURRENT RADAR OBSERVATIONS INDICATE ISOLATED SHOWERS IN SOUTHWEST
ARKANSAS AND THE BOOT HEEL OF MISSOURI. BEST CHANCES FOR SHOWERS TO
DEVELOP IN OUR CWFA WILL BE IN THE SOUTHWEST AND NORTHEAST. A COLD
FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE PLAINS AND STALL TONIGHT. THIS WILL
INCREASE RAIN CHANCES FOR OUR AREA AS THE ATMOSPHERE WILL
DESTABILIZE. RAIN CHANCES WILL INCREASE FROM WEST TO EAST FRIDAY.

THE BEST CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE SATURDAY. AN
AREA OF MOISTURE WILL SURGE NORTH FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO AND HELP
FEED THUNDERSTORMS. THE SHORT WAVE WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL MOVE EAST
OF THE AREA SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND DIMINISH THE CHANCES OF RAIN. LOWS
TONIGHT WILL BE IN THE UPPER 60S TO MID 70S AND HIGHS FRIDAY WILL BE
IN THE UPPER 80S TO MID 90S. NEAR TO ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE
EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD.

LONG TERM...MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY
THERE IS SOME MODEL DISAGREEMENT IN THE LONG TERM...WITH ONE CAMP
BEING FAIRLY PROGRESSIVE...AND ANOTHER BEING BLOCKY. ALL WILL DEPEND
ON IF OR HOW FAR NORTH UPPER RIDGING BUILDS BACK IN...AND HOW CLOSE
A FRONT MOVES INTO THE REGION AROUND MID WEEK. REGARDLESS IF THE
RIDGE BUILDS BACK IN OR NOT...THERE WILL BE UPPER WAVES MOVING
THROUGH AROUND THE PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE. THIS...WITH THE CLOSE
PROXIMITY OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL BE ENOUGH TO ALLOW FOR SMALL
RAIN CHANCES THROUGH THE PERIOD.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE CLOSE TO AVERAGE...BUT LARGELY DEPENDENT ON
CLOUD COVER AND ANY RAIN THAT FALLS. TRENDED CLOSE TO OR A LITTLE
UNDER RAW GFS AND EURO NUMBERS...AS GFS MOS SEEMS A BIT TOO WARM
GIVEN THE AFOREMENTIONED PATTERN EXPECTED.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BATESVILLE AR     67  91  71  87 /  10  30  50  60
CAMDEN AR         70  93  72  84 /  10  30  40  60
HARRISON AR       68  88  69  88 /  10  50  60  50
HOT SPRINGS AR    72  91  72  84 /  10  40  40  50
LITTLE ROCK   AR  72  92  72  86 /  10  30  40  60
MONTICELLO AR     72  94  73  85 /  10  20  40  70
MOUNT IDA AR      69  90  71  84 /  10  40  40  50
MOUNTAIN HOME AR  66  90  70  89 /  10  40  60  60
NEWPORT AR        69  92  71  84 /  10  20  50  70
PINE BLUFF AR     69  92  72  85 /  10  30  40  60
RUSSELLVILLE AR   70  90  71  89 /  10  40  50  50
SEARCY AR         68  92  71  86 /  10  30  50  60
STUTTGART AR      71  92  71  86 /  10  20  40  70
&&

.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&

$$

224
AVIATION...99






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