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000
FXUS64 KLZK 061130
AFDLZK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
630 AM CDT WED MAY 6 2015

.AVIATION...
CONVECTION OVER OKLAHOMA WILL SLOWLY MOVE EAST...AND MAY MOVE INTO
WESTERN ARKANSAS SHORTLY AFTER 12Z...BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW. HAVE
VCSH IN WESTERN TAFS FOR NOW. VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL...WITH
WINDS BECOMING GUSTY BY MID MORNING.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 352 AM CDT WED MAY 6 2015/

SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT
UPPER HIGH PRESSURE IS OVER THE EASTERN U.S. THIS MORNING WITH UPPER
LOW PRESSURE OVER THE HIGH PLAINS AND THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. THE
UPPER LOW IN THE PLAINS WILL LIFT NORTHEAST TODAY AND TONIGHT AS THE
UPPER LOW IN THE WEST SINKS SOUTHWARD. AN UPPER LOW DEVELOPS OVER
THE SOUTHEAST THURSDAY BUT THE SOUTHWEST FLOW OVER ARKANSAS WILL
CONTINUE AS THE UPPER LOW MOVES INTO THE ROCKIES SATURDAY.

MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THIS MORNING. THE SOUTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT WILL CONTINUE OVER THE STATE THROUGH THE SHORT TERM PERIOD.
SEVERAL SHORT WAVES WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION DURING THE PERIOD
AND KEEP RAIN CHANCES IN FOR MUCH OF THE PERIOD. RAIN CHANCES WILL
INCREASE SATURDAY AS A COLD FRONT MOVES INTO EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND
STABILITY DECREASES AHEAD OF THE FRONT. ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES
ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE PERIOD.

LONG TERM...SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY
SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL CONTINUE INTO THE LONG TERM...AS UPPER LOW
MEANDERS AROUND THE ROCKIES. PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL DEPEND ON
WHEN ENERGY ROTATES AROUND THIS LARGE UPPER LOW...WITH SEVERAL
ROUNDS OF RAINFALL. AS SURFACE LOW DEVELOPS IN THE PLAINS SUNDAY...A
COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE NORTHWEST SUNDAY NIGHT INTO
MONDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL FOLLOW THE FRONT...WITH DRY CONDITIONS
TUESDAY. HOWEVER...AS IS USUAL THIS TIME OF YEAR...THE FRONT WILL
SLOW/STALL SOUTH OF THE STATE...AND MAY AFFECT RAIN CHANCES EXITING
SOUTHERN COUNTIES.

HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE 70S AND MID 80S...WITH A SLIGHT
COOL DOWN BEHIND THE FRONT TUESDAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BATESVILLE AR     81  63  83  64 /  10  10  20  30
CAMDEN AR         83  64  85  67 /  10  10  20  20
HARRISON AR       78  62  81  63 /  30  20  30  40
HOT SPRINGS AR    82  64  83  66 /  10  10  20  20
LITTLE ROCK   AR  83  64  84  66 /  10  10  20  20
MONTICELLO AR     83  64  85  66 /  10  10  10  20
MOUNT IDA AR      81  64  83  66 /  20  10  20  20
MOUNTAIN HOME AR  79  61  82  63 /  20  10  30  40
NEWPORT AR        82  63  84  65 /  10  10  20  20
PINE BLUFF AR     83  64  85  66 /  10  10  10  20
RUSSELLVILLE AR   80  63  82  65 /  20  10  30  30
SEARCY AR         82  63  84  65 /  10  10  20  20
STUTTGART AR      83  64  85  66 /  10  10  20  20
&&

.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&

$$


AVIATION...58





000
FXUS64 KLZK 061130
AFDLZK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
630 AM CDT WED MAY 6 2015

.AVIATION...
CONVECTION OVER OKLAHOMA WILL SLOWLY MOVE EAST...AND MAY MOVE INTO
WESTERN ARKANSAS SHORTLY AFTER 12Z...BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW. HAVE
VCSH IN WESTERN TAFS FOR NOW. VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL...WITH
WINDS BECOMING GUSTY BY MID MORNING.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 352 AM CDT WED MAY 6 2015/

SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT
UPPER HIGH PRESSURE IS OVER THE EASTERN U.S. THIS MORNING WITH UPPER
LOW PRESSURE OVER THE HIGH PLAINS AND THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. THE
UPPER LOW IN THE PLAINS WILL LIFT NORTHEAST TODAY AND TONIGHT AS THE
UPPER LOW IN THE WEST SINKS SOUTHWARD. AN UPPER LOW DEVELOPS OVER
THE SOUTHEAST THURSDAY BUT THE SOUTHWEST FLOW OVER ARKANSAS WILL
CONTINUE AS THE UPPER LOW MOVES INTO THE ROCKIES SATURDAY.

MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THIS MORNING. THE SOUTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT WILL CONTINUE OVER THE STATE THROUGH THE SHORT TERM PERIOD.
SEVERAL SHORT WAVES WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION DURING THE PERIOD
AND KEEP RAIN CHANCES IN FOR MUCH OF THE PERIOD. RAIN CHANCES WILL
INCREASE SATURDAY AS A COLD FRONT MOVES INTO EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND
STABILITY DECREASES AHEAD OF THE FRONT. ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES
ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE PERIOD.

LONG TERM...SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY
SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL CONTINUE INTO THE LONG TERM...AS UPPER LOW
MEANDERS AROUND THE ROCKIES. PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL DEPEND ON
WHEN ENERGY ROTATES AROUND THIS LARGE UPPER LOW...WITH SEVERAL
ROUNDS OF RAINFALL. AS SURFACE LOW DEVELOPS IN THE PLAINS SUNDAY...A
COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE NORTHWEST SUNDAY NIGHT INTO
MONDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL FOLLOW THE FRONT...WITH DRY CONDITIONS
TUESDAY. HOWEVER...AS IS USUAL THIS TIME OF YEAR...THE FRONT WILL
SLOW/STALL SOUTH OF THE STATE...AND MAY AFFECT RAIN CHANCES EXITING
SOUTHERN COUNTIES.

HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE 70S AND MID 80S...WITH A SLIGHT
COOL DOWN BEHIND THE FRONT TUESDAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BATESVILLE AR     81  63  83  64 /  10  10  20  30
CAMDEN AR         83  64  85  67 /  10  10  20  20
HARRISON AR       78  62  81  63 /  30  20  30  40
HOT SPRINGS AR    82  64  83  66 /  10  10  20  20
LITTLE ROCK   AR  83  64  84  66 /  10  10  20  20
MONTICELLO AR     83  64  85  66 /  10  10  10  20
MOUNT IDA AR      81  64  83  66 /  20  10  20  20
MOUNTAIN HOME AR  79  61  82  63 /  20  10  30  40
NEWPORT AR        82  63  84  65 /  10  10  20  20
PINE BLUFF AR     83  64  85  66 /  10  10  10  20
RUSSELLVILLE AR   80  63  82  65 /  20  10  30  30
SEARCY AR         82  63  84  65 /  10  10  20  20
STUTTGART AR      83  64  85  66 /  10  10  20  20
&&

.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&

$$


AVIATION...58





000
FXUS64 KLZK 061130
AFDLZK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
630 AM CDT WED MAY 6 2015

.AVIATION...
CONVECTION OVER OKLAHOMA WILL SLOWLY MOVE EAST...AND MAY MOVE INTO
WESTERN ARKANSAS SHORTLY AFTER 12Z...BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW. HAVE
VCSH IN WESTERN TAFS FOR NOW. VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL...WITH
WINDS BECOMING GUSTY BY MID MORNING.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 352 AM CDT WED MAY 6 2015/

SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT
UPPER HIGH PRESSURE IS OVER THE EASTERN U.S. THIS MORNING WITH UPPER
LOW PRESSURE OVER THE HIGH PLAINS AND THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. THE
UPPER LOW IN THE PLAINS WILL LIFT NORTHEAST TODAY AND TONIGHT AS THE
UPPER LOW IN THE WEST SINKS SOUTHWARD. AN UPPER LOW DEVELOPS OVER
THE SOUTHEAST THURSDAY BUT THE SOUTHWEST FLOW OVER ARKANSAS WILL
CONTINUE AS THE UPPER LOW MOVES INTO THE ROCKIES SATURDAY.

MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THIS MORNING. THE SOUTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT WILL CONTINUE OVER THE STATE THROUGH THE SHORT TERM PERIOD.
SEVERAL SHORT WAVES WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION DURING THE PERIOD
AND KEEP RAIN CHANCES IN FOR MUCH OF THE PERIOD. RAIN CHANCES WILL
INCREASE SATURDAY AS A COLD FRONT MOVES INTO EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND
STABILITY DECREASES AHEAD OF THE FRONT. ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES
ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE PERIOD.

LONG TERM...SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY
SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL CONTINUE INTO THE LONG TERM...AS UPPER LOW
MEANDERS AROUND THE ROCKIES. PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL DEPEND ON
WHEN ENERGY ROTATES AROUND THIS LARGE UPPER LOW...WITH SEVERAL
ROUNDS OF RAINFALL. AS SURFACE LOW DEVELOPS IN THE PLAINS SUNDAY...A
COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE NORTHWEST SUNDAY NIGHT INTO
MONDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL FOLLOW THE FRONT...WITH DRY CONDITIONS
TUESDAY. HOWEVER...AS IS USUAL THIS TIME OF YEAR...THE FRONT WILL
SLOW/STALL SOUTH OF THE STATE...AND MAY AFFECT RAIN CHANCES EXITING
SOUTHERN COUNTIES.

HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE 70S AND MID 80S...WITH A SLIGHT
COOL DOWN BEHIND THE FRONT TUESDAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BATESVILLE AR     81  63  83  64 /  10  10  20  30
CAMDEN AR         83  64  85  67 /  10  10  20  20
HARRISON AR       78  62  81  63 /  30  20  30  40
HOT SPRINGS AR    82  64  83  66 /  10  10  20  20
LITTLE ROCK   AR  83  64  84  66 /  10  10  20  20
MONTICELLO AR     83  64  85  66 /  10  10  10  20
MOUNT IDA AR      81  64  83  66 /  20  10  20  20
MOUNTAIN HOME AR  79  61  82  63 /  20  10  30  40
NEWPORT AR        82  63  84  65 /  10  10  20  20
PINE BLUFF AR     83  64  85  66 /  10  10  10  20
RUSSELLVILLE AR   80  63  82  65 /  20  10  30  30
SEARCY AR         82  63  84  65 /  10  10  20  20
STUTTGART AR      83  64  85  66 /  10  10  20  20
&&

.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&

$$


AVIATION...58






000
FXUS64 KLZK 060852
AFDLZK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
352 AM CDT WED MAY 6 2015

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT
UPPER HIGH PRESSURE IS OVER THE EASTERN U.S. THIS MORNING WITH UPPER
LOW PRESSURE OVER THE HIGH PLAINS AND THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. THE
UPPER LOW IN THE PLAINS WILL LIFT NORTHEAST TODAY AND TONIGHT AS THE
UPPER LOW IN THE WEST SINKS SOUTHWARD. AN UPPER LOW DEVELOPS OVER
THE SOUTHEAST THURSDAY BUT THE SOUTHWEST FLOW OVER ARKANSAS WILL
CONTINUE AS THE UPPER LOW MOVES INTO THE ROCKIES SATURDAY.

MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THIS MORNING. THE SOUTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT WILL CONTINUE OVER THE STATE THROUGH THE SHORT TERM PERIOD.
SEVERAL SHORT WAVES WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION DURING THE PERIOD
AND KEEP RAIN CHANCES IN FOR MUCH OF THE PERIOD. RAIN CHANCES WILL
INCREASE SATURDAY AS A COLD FRONT MOVES INTO EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND
STABILITY DECREASES AHEAD OF THE FRONT. ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES
ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.LONG TERM...SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY
SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL CONTINUE INTO THE LONG TERM...AS UPPER LOW
MEANDERS AROUND THE ROCKIES. PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL DEPEND ON
WHEN ENERGY ROTATES AROUND THIS LARGE UPPER LOW...WITH SEVERAL
ROUNDS OF RAINFALL. AS SURFACE LOW DEVELOPS IN THE PLAINS SUNDAY...A
COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE NORTHWEST SUNDAY NIGHT INTO
MONDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL FOLLOW THE FRONT...WITH DRY CONDITIONS
TUESDAY. HOWEVER...AS IS USUAL THIS TIME OF YEAR...THE FRONT WILL
SLOW/STALL SOUTH OF THE STATE...AND MAY AFFECT RAIN CHANCES EXITING
SOUTHERN COUNTIES.

HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE 70S AND MID 80S...WITH A SLIGHT
COOL DOWN BEHIND THE FRONT TUESDAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BATESVILLE AR     81  63  83  64 /  10  10  20  30
CAMDEN AR         83  64  85  67 /  10  10  20  20
HARRISON AR       78  62  81  63 /  30  20  30  40
HOT SPRINGS AR    82  64  83  66 /  10  10  20  20
LITTLE ROCK   AR  83  64  84  66 /  10  10  20  20
MONTICELLO AR     83  64  85  66 /  10  10  10  20
MOUNT IDA AR      81  64  83  66 /  20  10  20  20
MOUNTAIN HOME AR  79  61  82  63 /  20  10  30  40
NEWPORT AR        82  63  84  65 /  10  10  20  20
PINE BLUFF AR     83  64  85  66 /  10  10  10  20
RUSSELLVILLE AR   80  63  82  65 /  20  10  30  30
SEARCY AR         82  63  84  65 /  10  10  20  20
STUTTGART AR      83  64  85  66 /  10  10  20  20
&&

.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...51 / LONG TERM...58






000
FXUS64 KLZK 060852
AFDLZK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
352 AM CDT WED MAY 6 2015

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT
UPPER HIGH PRESSURE IS OVER THE EASTERN U.S. THIS MORNING WITH UPPER
LOW PRESSURE OVER THE HIGH PLAINS AND THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. THE
UPPER LOW IN THE PLAINS WILL LIFT NORTHEAST TODAY AND TONIGHT AS THE
UPPER LOW IN THE WEST SINKS SOUTHWARD. AN UPPER LOW DEVELOPS OVER
THE SOUTHEAST THURSDAY BUT THE SOUTHWEST FLOW OVER ARKANSAS WILL
CONTINUE AS THE UPPER LOW MOVES INTO THE ROCKIES SATURDAY.

MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THIS MORNING. THE SOUTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT WILL CONTINUE OVER THE STATE THROUGH THE SHORT TERM PERIOD.
SEVERAL SHORT WAVES WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION DURING THE PERIOD
AND KEEP RAIN CHANCES IN FOR MUCH OF THE PERIOD. RAIN CHANCES WILL
INCREASE SATURDAY AS A COLD FRONT MOVES INTO EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND
STABILITY DECREASES AHEAD OF THE FRONT. ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES
ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.LONG TERM...SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY
SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL CONTINUE INTO THE LONG TERM...AS UPPER LOW
MEANDERS AROUND THE ROCKIES. PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL DEPEND ON
WHEN ENERGY ROTATES AROUND THIS LARGE UPPER LOW...WITH SEVERAL
ROUNDS OF RAINFALL. AS SURFACE LOW DEVELOPS IN THE PLAINS SUNDAY...A
COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE NORTHWEST SUNDAY NIGHT INTO
MONDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL FOLLOW THE FRONT...WITH DRY CONDITIONS
TUESDAY. HOWEVER...AS IS USUAL THIS TIME OF YEAR...THE FRONT WILL
SLOW/STALL SOUTH OF THE STATE...AND MAY AFFECT RAIN CHANCES EXITING
SOUTHERN COUNTIES.

HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE 70S AND MID 80S...WITH A SLIGHT
COOL DOWN BEHIND THE FRONT TUESDAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BATESVILLE AR     81  63  83  64 /  10  10  20  30
CAMDEN AR         83  64  85  67 /  10  10  20  20
HARRISON AR       78  62  81  63 /  30  20  30  40
HOT SPRINGS AR    82  64  83  66 /  10  10  20  20
LITTLE ROCK   AR  83  64  84  66 /  10  10  20  20
MONTICELLO AR     83  64  85  66 /  10  10  10  20
MOUNT IDA AR      81  64  83  66 /  20  10  20  20
MOUNTAIN HOME AR  79  61  82  63 /  20  10  30  40
NEWPORT AR        82  63  84  65 /  10  10  20  20
PINE BLUFF AR     83  64  85  66 /  10  10  10  20
RUSSELLVILLE AR   80  63  82  65 /  20  10  30  30
SEARCY AR         82  63  84  65 /  10  10  20  20
STUTTGART AR      83  64  85  66 /  10  10  20  20
&&

.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...51 / LONG TERM...58






000
FXUS64 KLZK 060852
AFDLZK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
352 AM CDT WED MAY 6 2015

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT
UPPER HIGH PRESSURE IS OVER THE EASTERN U.S. THIS MORNING WITH UPPER
LOW PRESSURE OVER THE HIGH PLAINS AND THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. THE
UPPER LOW IN THE PLAINS WILL LIFT NORTHEAST TODAY AND TONIGHT AS THE
UPPER LOW IN THE WEST SINKS SOUTHWARD. AN UPPER LOW DEVELOPS OVER
THE SOUTHEAST THURSDAY BUT THE SOUTHWEST FLOW OVER ARKANSAS WILL
CONTINUE AS THE UPPER LOW MOVES INTO THE ROCKIES SATURDAY.

MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THIS MORNING. THE SOUTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT WILL CONTINUE OVER THE STATE THROUGH THE SHORT TERM PERIOD.
SEVERAL SHORT WAVES WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION DURING THE PERIOD
AND KEEP RAIN CHANCES IN FOR MUCH OF THE PERIOD. RAIN CHANCES WILL
INCREASE SATURDAY AS A COLD FRONT MOVES INTO EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND
STABILITY DECREASES AHEAD OF THE FRONT. ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES
ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.LONG TERM...SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY
SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL CONTINUE INTO THE LONG TERM...AS UPPER LOW
MEANDERS AROUND THE ROCKIES. PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL DEPEND ON
WHEN ENERGY ROTATES AROUND THIS LARGE UPPER LOW...WITH SEVERAL
ROUNDS OF RAINFALL. AS SURFACE LOW DEVELOPS IN THE PLAINS SUNDAY...A
COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE NORTHWEST SUNDAY NIGHT INTO
MONDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL FOLLOW THE FRONT...WITH DRY CONDITIONS
TUESDAY. HOWEVER...AS IS USUAL THIS TIME OF YEAR...THE FRONT WILL
SLOW/STALL SOUTH OF THE STATE...AND MAY AFFECT RAIN CHANCES EXITING
SOUTHERN COUNTIES.

HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE 70S AND MID 80S...WITH A SLIGHT
COOL DOWN BEHIND THE FRONT TUESDAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BATESVILLE AR     81  63  83  64 /  10  10  20  30
CAMDEN AR         83  64  85  67 /  10  10  20  20
HARRISON AR       78  62  81  63 /  30  20  30  40
HOT SPRINGS AR    82  64  83  66 /  10  10  20  20
LITTLE ROCK   AR  83  64  84  66 /  10  10  20  20
MONTICELLO AR     83  64  85  66 /  10  10  10  20
MOUNT IDA AR      81  64  83  66 /  20  10  20  20
MOUNTAIN HOME AR  79  61  82  63 /  20  10  30  40
NEWPORT AR        82  63  84  65 /  10  10  20  20
PINE BLUFF AR     83  64  85  66 /  10  10  10  20
RUSSELLVILLE AR   80  63  82  65 /  20  10  30  30
SEARCY AR         82  63  84  65 /  10  10  20  20
STUTTGART AR      83  64  85  66 /  10  10  20  20
&&

.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...51 / LONG TERM...58





000
FXUS64 KLZK 060852
AFDLZK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
352 AM CDT WED MAY 6 2015

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT
UPPER HIGH PRESSURE IS OVER THE EASTERN U.S. THIS MORNING WITH UPPER
LOW PRESSURE OVER THE HIGH PLAINS AND THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. THE
UPPER LOW IN THE PLAINS WILL LIFT NORTHEAST TODAY AND TONIGHT AS THE
UPPER LOW IN THE WEST SINKS SOUTHWARD. AN UPPER LOW DEVELOPS OVER
THE SOUTHEAST THURSDAY BUT THE SOUTHWEST FLOW OVER ARKANSAS WILL
CONTINUE AS THE UPPER LOW MOVES INTO THE ROCKIES SATURDAY.

MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THIS MORNING. THE SOUTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT WILL CONTINUE OVER THE STATE THROUGH THE SHORT TERM PERIOD.
SEVERAL SHORT WAVES WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION DURING THE PERIOD
AND KEEP RAIN CHANCES IN FOR MUCH OF THE PERIOD. RAIN CHANCES WILL
INCREASE SATURDAY AS A COLD FRONT MOVES INTO EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND
STABILITY DECREASES AHEAD OF THE FRONT. ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES
ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.LONG TERM...SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY
SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL CONTINUE INTO THE LONG TERM...AS UPPER LOW
MEANDERS AROUND THE ROCKIES. PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL DEPEND ON
WHEN ENERGY ROTATES AROUND THIS LARGE UPPER LOW...WITH SEVERAL
ROUNDS OF RAINFALL. AS SURFACE LOW DEVELOPS IN THE PLAINS SUNDAY...A
COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE NORTHWEST SUNDAY NIGHT INTO
MONDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL FOLLOW THE FRONT...WITH DRY CONDITIONS
TUESDAY. HOWEVER...AS IS USUAL THIS TIME OF YEAR...THE FRONT WILL
SLOW/STALL SOUTH OF THE STATE...AND MAY AFFECT RAIN CHANCES EXITING
SOUTHERN COUNTIES.

HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE 70S AND MID 80S...WITH A SLIGHT
COOL DOWN BEHIND THE FRONT TUESDAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BATESVILLE AR     81  63  83  64 /  10  10  20  30
CAMDEN AR         83  64  85  67 /  10  10  20  20
HARRISON AR       78  62  81  63 /  30  20  30  40
HOT SPRINGS AR    82  64  83  66 /  10  10  20  20
LITTLE ROCK   AR  83  64  84  66 /  10  10  20  20
MONTICELLO AR     83  64  85  66 /  10  10  10  20
MOUNT IDA AR      81  64  83  66 /  20  10  20  20
MOUNTAIN HOME AR  79  61  82  63 /  20  10  30  40
NEWPORT AR        82  63  84  65 /  10  10  20  20
PINE BLUFF AR     83  64  85  66 /  10  10  10  20
RUSSELLVILLE AR   80  63  82  65 /  20  10  30  30
SEARCY AR         82  63  84  65 /  10  10  20  20
STUTTGART AR      83  64  85  66 /  10  10  20  20
&&

.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...51 / LONG TERM...58





000
FXUS64 KLZK 060525 AAA
AFDLZK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
1225 AM CDT WED MAY 6 2015

.AVIATION...
CONVECTION OVER OKLAHOMA WILL SLOWLY MOVE EAST...AND MAY MOVE INTO
WESTERN ARKANSAS SHORTLY BEFORE 12Z...BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW. HAVE
VCTS IN WESTERN TAFS FOR NOW. VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL...WITH
WINDS BECOMING GUSTY BY MID MORNING.
&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 900 PM CDT TUE MAY 5 2015/

DISCUSSION...

OVERALL FORECAST ON TRACK. ISOLATED CONVECTION WILL AFFECT FAR
WESTERN AR THIS EVENING INTO THE EARLY OVERNIGHT...AS THE UPPER LOW
SPINS OVER EASTERN CO AND ROTATES SOME ENERGY TO THE EAST. DO EXPECT
IT TO LIFT NORTH AND WEAKEN...AND THEN ONLY VERY ISOLATED CONVECTION
OVERNIGHT. SHORT RANGE MODELS HAVE THIS TREND ALSO. PARTLY CLOUDY
SKIES WILL BE SEEN OVERNIGHT AND HOLD TEMPS AROUND 60 STATEWIDE. NO
SIGNIFICANT CHANGES WITH LATE EVENING UPDATE. (59)

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 316 PM CDT TUE MAY 5 2015/

SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT
HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE/ALOFT OVER THE SOUTHEAST UNITED
STATES WILL BE THE DOMINANT FEATURE IN THE NEAR TERM. THIS WILL
KEEP A SOUTHERLY WIND FLOW GOING ACROSS ARKANSAS...WITH ABOVE
NORMAL TEMPERATURES IN THE FORECAST. MOISTURE LEVELS WILL ALSO
SLOWLY CLIMB.

MEANWHILE...A FRONT WILL WOBBLE TOWARD THE REGION FROM THE
PLAINS. THE FRONT WILL HAVE DIFFICULTLY HEADING TO THE EAST
BECAUSE OF HIGH PRESSURE. THE FRONT WILL GET CLOSE ENOUGH TO
WARRANT THE MENTION OF ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS IN NORTHERN/WESTERN SECTIONS OF THE STATE EACH DAY.

IT DOES APPEAR THAT THE FRONT WILL FINALLY GET HERE IN THE
EXTENDED PERIOD...WITH BETTER CHANCES OF RAIN.

LONG TERM...SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY
UPPER LEVEL FLOW WILL BE SW OVER THE REGION AT THE START OF THE LONG
TERM PERIOD...WITH PLENTY OF MOISTURE IN PLACE OVER THE STATE.
PRECIP CHANCES WILL BE SOMEWHAT HIGH AS A RESULT...THOUGH WILL
DEPENDING ON WHEN ANY DISTURBANCES LIFT NE IN THE SW FLOW ALOFT.
THIS WILL CONTINUE TO BE THE TREND FOR SUN AND INTO EARLY MON...AS
THE UPPER TROUGH TO THE WEST VERY SLOWLY MOVES EAST AND NE. BY LATER
ON MON...AN UPPER TROUGH WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS THE
PLAINS...DEEPENING OVER TIME. THIS WILL SEND A COLD FRONT SOUTH
THROUGH THE REGION...WITH PRECIP CHANCES ENDING BY THE END OF THE
FORECAST. TEMPS THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL HOVER IN THE 70S AND 80S FOR
HIGHS THROUGH SUN...THOUGH COULD SEE A FEW DEG COOLER IF WIDESPREAD
RAINFALL WERE TO PERSIST. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE
60S TO AROUND 70. SLIGHTLY COOLER AND MUCH DRIER CONDITIONS WILL BE
SEEN BEHIND THIS FRONT BY NEXT TUE.
&&

.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&

$$

AVIATION...58





000
FXUS64 KLZK 060525 AAA
AFDLZK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
1225 AM CDT WED MAY 6 2015

.AVIATION...
CONVECTION OVER OKLAHOMA WILL SLOWLY MOVE EAST...AND MAY MOVE INTO
WESTERN ARKANSAS SHORTLY BEFORE 12Z...BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW. HAVE
VCTS IN WESTERN TAFS FOR NOW. VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL...WITH
WINDS BECOMING GUSTY BY MID MORNING.
&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 900 PM CDT TUE MAY 5 2015/

DISCUSSION...

OVERALL FORECAST ON TRACK. ISOLATED CONVECTION WILL AFFECT FAR
WESTERN AR THIS EVENING INTO THE EARLY OVERNIGHT...AS THE UPPER LOW
SPINS OVER EASTERN CO AND ROTATES SOME ENERGY TO THE EAST. DO EXPECT
IT TO LIFT NORTH AND WEAKEN...AND THEN ONLY VERY ISOLATED CONVECTION
OVERNIGHT. SHORT RANGE MODELS HAVE THIS TREND ALSO. PARTLY CLOUDY
SKIES WILL BE SEEN OVERNIGHT AND HOLD TEMPS AROUND 60 STATEWIDE. NO
SIGNIFICANT CHANGES WITH LATE EVENING UPDATE. (59)

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 316 PM CDT TUE MAY 5 2015/

SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT
HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE/ALOFT OVER THE SOUTHEAST UNITED
STATES WILL BE THE DOMINANT FEATURE IN THE NEAR TERM. THIS WILL
KEEP A SOUTHERLY WIND FLOW GOING ACROSS ARKANSAS...WITH ABOVE
NORMAL TEMPERATURES IN THE FORECAST. MOISTURE LEVELS WILL ALSO
SLOWLY CLIMB.

MEANWHILE...A FRONT WILL WOBBLE TOWARD THE REGION FROM THE
PLAINS. THE FRONT WILL HAVE DIFFICULTLY HEADING TO THE EAST
BECAUSE OF HIGH PRESSURE. THE FRONT WILL GET CLOSE ENOUGH TO
WARRANT THE MENTION OF ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS IN NORTHERN/WESTERN SECTIONS OF THE STATE EACH DAY.

IT DOES APPEAR THAT THE FRONT WILL FINALLY GET HERE IN THE
EXTENDED PERIOD...WITH BETTER CHANCES OF RAIN.

LONG TERM...SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY
UPPER LEVEL FLOW WILL BE SW OVER THE REGION AT THE START OF THE LONG
TERM PERIOD...WITH PLENTY OF MOISTURE IN PLACE OVER THE STATE.
PRECIP CHANCES WILL BE SOMEWHAT HIGH AS A RESULT...THOUGH WILL
DEPENDING ON WHEN ANY DISTURBANCES LIFT NE IN THE SW FLOW ALOFT.
THIS WILL CONTINUE TO BE THE TREND FOR SUN AND INTO EARLY MON...AS
THE UPPER TROUGH TO THE WEST VERY SLOWLY MOVES EAST AND NE. BY LATER
ON MON...AN UPPER TROUGH WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS THE
PLAINS...DEEPENING OVER TIME. THIS WILL SEND A COLD FRONT SOUTH
THROUGH THE REGION...WITH PRECIP CHANCES ENDING BY THE END OF THE
FORECAST. TEMPS THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL HOVER IN THE 70S AND 80S FOR
HIGHS THROUGH SUN...THOUGH COULD SEE A FEW DEG COOLER IF WIDESPREAD
RAINFALL WERE TO PERSIST. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE
60S TO AROUND 70. SLIGHTLY COOLER AND MUCH DRIER CONDITIONS WILL BE
SEEN BEHIND THIS FRONT BY NEXT TUE.
&&

.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&

$$

AVIATION...58




000
FXUS64 KLZK 060203 AAB
AFDLZK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
900 PM CDT TUE MAY 5 2015

.DISCUSSION...

OVERALL FORECAST ON TRACK. ISOLATED CONVECTION WILL AFFECT FAR
WESTERN AR THIS EVENING INTO THE EARLY OVERNIGHT...AS THE UPPER LOW
SPINS OVER EASTERN CO AND ROTATES SOME ENERGY TO THE EAST. DO EXPECT
IT TO LIFT NORTH AND WEAKEN...AND THEN ONLY VERY ISOLATED CONVECTION
OVERNIGHT. SHORT RANGE MODELS HAVE THIS TREND ALSO. PARTLY CLOUDY
SKIES WILL BE SEEN OVERNIGHT AND HOLD TEMPS AROUND 60 STATEWIDE. NO
SIGNIFICANT CHANGES WITH LATE EVENING UPDATE. (59)

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 642 PM CDT TUE MAY 5 2015/

.AVIATION...

LINE OF TSRA ACROSS NORTHEAST TEXAS MAY MAKE INTO WESTERN
TAFS...SO HAVE VCTS THIS EVENING. ANY CONVECTION TONIGHT OR
WEDNESDAY WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE FAR WEST...AND VFR CONDITIONS
WILL PREVAIL AREA WIDE.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 316 PM CDT TUE MAY 5 2015/

SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT
HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE/ALOFT OVER THE SOUTHEAST UNITED
STATES WILL BE THE DOMINANT FEATURE IN THE NEAR TERM. THIS WILL
KEEP A SOUTHERLY WIND FLOW GOING ACROSS ARKANSAS...WITH ABOVE
NORMAL TEMPERATURES IN THE FORECAST. MOISTURE LEVELS WILL ALSO
SLOWLY CLIMB.

MEANWHILE...A FRONT WILL WOBBLE TOWARD THE REGION FROM THE
PLAINS. THE FRONT WILL HAVE DIFFICULTLY HEADING TO THE EAST
BECAUSE OF HIGH PRESSURE. THE FRONT WILL GET CLOSE ENOUGH TO
WARRANT THE MENTION OF ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS IN NORTHERN/WESTERN SECTIONS OF THE STATE EACH DAY.

IT DOES APPEAR THAT THE FRONT WILL FINALLY GET HERE IN THE
EXTENDED PERIOD...WITH BETTER CHANCES OF RAIN.

LONG TERM...SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY
UPPER LEVEL FLOW WILL BE SW OVER THE REGION AT THE START OF THE LONG
TERM PERIOD...WITH PLENTY OF MOISTURE IN PLACE OVER THE STATE.
PRECIP CHANCES WILL BE SOMEWHAT HIGH AS A RESULT...THOUGH WILL
DEPENDING ON WHEN ANY DISTURBANCES LIFT NE IN THE SW FLOW ALOFT.
THIS WILL CONTINUE TO BE THE TREND FOR SUN AND INTO EARLY MON...AS
THE UPPER TROUGH TO THE WEST VERY SLOWLY MOVES EAST AND NE. BY LATER
ON MON...AN UPPER TROUGH WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS THE
PLAINS...DEEPENING OVER TIME. THIS WILL SEND A COLD FRONT SOUTH
THROUGH THE REGION...WITH PRECIP CHANCES ENDING BY THE END OF THE
FORECAST. TEMPS THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL HOVER IN THE 70S AND 80S FOR
HIGHS THROUGH SUN...THOUGH COULD SEE A FEW DEG COOLER IF WIDESPREAD
RAINFALL WERE TO PERSIST. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE
60S TO AROUND 70. SLIGHTLY COOLER AND MUCH DRIER CONDITIONS WILL BE
SEEN BEHIND THIS FRONT BY NEXT TUE.
&&

.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&

$$

AVIATION...58







000
FXUS64 KLZK 052342 AAA
AFDLZK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
642 PM CDT TUE MAY 5 2015

.AVIATION...
LINE OF TSRA ACROSS NORTHEAST TEXAS MAY MAKE INTO WESTERN
TAFS...SO HAVE VCTS THIS EVENING. ANY CONVECTION TONIGHT OR
WEDNESDAY WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE FAR WEST...AND VFR CONDITIONS
WILL PREVAIL AREA WIDE.
&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 316 PM CDT TUE MAY 5 2015/

SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT
HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE/ALOFT OVER THE SOUTHEAST UNITED
STATES WILL BE THE DOMINANT FEATURE IN THE NEAR TERM. THIS WILL
KEEP A SOUTHERLY WIND FLOW GOING ACROSS ARKANSAS...WITH ABOVE
NORMAL TEMPERATURES IN THE FORECAST. MOISTURE LEVELS WILL ALSO
SLOWLY CLIMB.

MEANWHILE...A FRONT WILL WOBBLE TOWARD THE REGION FROM THE
PLAINS. THE FRONT WILL HAVE DIFFICULTLY HEADING TO THE EAST
BECAUSE OF HIGH PRESSURE. THE FRONT WILL GET CLOSE ENOUGH TO
WARRANT THE MENTION OF ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS IN NORTHERN/WESTERN SECTIONS OF THE STATE EACH DAY.

IT DOES APPEAR THAT THE FRONT WILL FINALLY GET HERE IN THE
EXTENDED PERIOD...WITH BETTER CHANCES OF RAIN.

LONG TERM...SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY
UPPER LEVEL FLOW WILL BE SW OVER THE REGION AT THE START OF THE LONG
TERM PERIOD...WITH PLENTY OF MOISTURE IN PLACE OVER THE STATE.
PRECIP CHANCES WILL BE SOMEWHAT HIGH AS A RESULT...THOUGH WILL
DEPENDING ON WHEN ANY DISTURBANCES LIFT NE IN THE SW FLOW ALOFT.
THIS WILL CONTINUE TO BE THE TREND FOR SUN AND INTO EARLY MON...AS
THE UPPER TROUGH TO THE WEST VERY SLOWLY MOVES EAST AND NE. BY LATER
ON MON...AN UPPER TROUGH WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS THE
PLAINS...DEEPENING OVER TIME. THIS WILL SEND A COLD FRONT SOUTH
THROUGH THE REGION...WITH PRECIP CHANCES ENDING BY THE END OF THE
FORECAST. TEMPS THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL HOVER IN THE 70S AND 80S FOR
HIGHS THROUGH SUN...THOUGH COULD SEE A FEW DEG COOLER IF WIDESPREAD
RAINFALL WERE TO PERSIST. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE 60S
TO AROUND 70. SLIGHTLY COOLER AND MUCH DRIER CONDITIONS WILL BE SEEN
BEHIND THIS FRONT BY NEXT TUE.
&&

.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&

$$

AVIATION...58




000
FXUS64 KLZK 052342 AAA
AFDLZK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
642 PM CDT TUE MAY 5 2015

.AVIATION...
LINE OF TSRA ACROSS NORTHEAST TEXAS MAY MAKE INTO WESTERN
TAFS...SO HAVE VCTS THIS EVENING. ANY CONVECTION TONIGHT OR
WEDNESDAY WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE FAR WEST...AND VFR CONDITIONS
WILL PREVAIL AREA WIDE.
&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 316 PM CDT TUE MAY 5 2015/

SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT
HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE/ALOFT OVER THE SOUTHEAST UNITED
STATES WILL BE THE DOMINANT FEATURE IN THE NEAR TERM. THIS WILL
KEEP A SOUTHERLY WIND FLOW GOING ACROSS ARKANSAS...WITH ABOVE
NORMAL TEMPERATURES IN THE FORECAST. MOISTURE LEVELS WILL ALSO
SLOWLY CLIMB.

MEANWHILE...A FRONT WILL WOBBLE TOWARD THE REGION FROM THE
PLAINS. THE FRONT WILL HAVE DIFFICULTLY HEADING TO THE EAST
BECAUSE OF HIGH PRESSURE. THE FRONT WILL GET CLOSE ENOUGH TO
WARRANT THE MENTION OF ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS IN NORTHERN/WESTERN SECTIONS OF THE STATE EACH DAY.

IT DOES APPEAR THAT THE FRONT WILL FINALLY GET HERE IN THE
EXTENDED PERIOD...WITH BETTER CHANCES OF RAIN.

LONG TERM...SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY
UPPER LEVEL FLOW WILL BE SW OVER THE REGION AT THE START OF THE LONG
TERM PERIOD...WITH PLENTY OF MOISTURE IN PLACE OVER THE STATE.
PRECIP CHANCES WILL BE SOMEWHAT HIGH AS A RESULT...THOUGH WILL
DEPENDING ON WHEN ANY DISTURBANCES LIFT NE IN THE SW FLOW ALOFT.
THIS WILL CONTINUE TO BE THE TREND FOR SUN AND INTO EARLY MON...AS
THE UPPER TROUGH TO THE WEST VERY SLOWLY MOVES EAST AND NE. BY LATER
ON MON...AN UPPER TROUGH WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS THE
PLAINS...DEEPENING OVER TIME. THIS WILL SEND A COLD FRONT SOUTH
THROUGH THE REGION...WITH PRECIP CHANCES ENDING BY THE END OF THE
FORECAST. TEMPS THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL HOVER IN THE 70S AND 80S FOR
HIGHS THROUGH SUN...THOUGH COULD SEE A FEW DEG COOLER IF WIDESPREAD
RAINFALL WERE TO PERSIST. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE 60S
TO AROUND 70. SLIGHTLY COOLER AND MUCH DRIER CONDITIONS WILL BE SEEN
BEHIND THIS FRONT BY NEXT TUE.
&&

.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&

$$

AVIATION...58





000
FXUS64 KLZK 052342 AAA
AFDLZK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
642 PM CDT TUE MAY 5 2015

.AVIATION...
LINE OF TSRA ACROSS NORTHEAST TEXAS MAY MAKE INTO WESTERN
TAFS...SO HAVE VCTS THIS EVENING. ANY CONVECTION TONIGHT OR
WEDNESDAY WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE FAR WEST...AND VFR CONDITIONS
WILL PREVAIL AREA WIDE.
&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 316 PM CDT TUE MAY 5 2015/

SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT
HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE/ALOFT OVER THE SOUTHEAST UNITED
STATES WILL BE THE DOMINANT FEATURE IN THE NEAR TERM. THIS WILL
KEEP A SOUTHERLY WIND FLOW GOING ACROSS ARKANSAS...WITH ABOVE
NORMAL TEMPERATURES IN THE FORECAST. MOISTURE LEVELS WILL ALSO
SLOWLY CLIMB.

MEANWHILE...A FRONT WILL WOBBLE TOWARD THE REGION FROM THE
PLAINS. THE FRONT WILL HAVE DIFFICULTLY HEADING TO THE EAST
BECAUSE OF HIGH PRESSURE. THE FRONT WILL GET CLOSE ENOUGH TO
WARRANT THE MENTION OF ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS IN NORTHERN/WESTERN SECTIONS OF THE STATE EACH DAY.

IT DOES APPEAR THAT THE FRONT WILL FINALLY GET HERE IN THE
EXTENDED PERIOD...WITH BETTER CHANCES OF RAIN.

LONG TERM...SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY
UPPER LEVEL FLOW WILL BE SW OVER THE REGION AT THE START OF THE LONG
TERM PERIOD...WITH PLENTY OF MOISTURE IN PLACE OVER THE STATE.
PRECIP CHANCES WILL BE SOMEWHAT HIGH AS A RESULT...THOUGH WILL
DEPENDING ON WHEN ANY DISTURBANCES LIFT NE IN THE SW FLOW ALOFT.
THIS WILL CONTINUE TO BE THE TREND FOR SUN AND INTO EARLY MON...AS
THE UPPER TROUGH TO THE WEST VERY SLOWLY MOVES EAST AND NE. BY LATER
ON MON...AN UPPER TROUGH WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS THE
PLAINS...DEEPENING OVER TIME. THIS WILL SEND A COLD FRONT SOUTH
THROUGH THE REGION...WITH PRECIP CHANCES ENDING BY THE END OF THE
FORECAST. TEMPS THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL HOVER IN THE 70S AND 80S FOR
HIGHS THROUGH SUN...THOUGH COULD SEE A FEW DEG COOLER IF WIDESPREAD
RAINFALL WERE TO PERSIST. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE 60S
TO AROUND 70. SLIGHTLY COOLER AND MUCH DRIER CONDITIONS WILL BE SEEN
BEHIND THIS FRONT BY NEXT TUE.
&&

.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&

$$

AVIATION...58





000
FXUS64 KLZK 052342 AAA
AFDLZK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
642 PM CDT TUE MAY 5 2015

.AVIATION...
LINE OF TSRA ACROSS NORTHEAST TEXAS MAY MAKE INTO WESTERN
TAFS...SO HAVE VCTS THIS EVENING. ANY CONVECTION TONIGHT OR
WEDNESDAY WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE FAR WEST...AND VFR CONDITIONS
WILL PREVAIL AREA WIDE.
&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 316 PM CDT TUE MAY 5 2015/

SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT
HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE/ALOFT OVER THE SOUTHEAST UNITED
STATES WILL BE THE DOMINANT FEATURE IN THE NEAR TERM. THIS WILL
KEEP A SOUTHERLY WIND FLOW GOING ACROSS ARKANSAS...WITH ABOVE
NORMAL TEMPERATURES IN THE FORECAST. MOISTURE LEVELS WILL ALSO
SLOWLY CLIMB.

MEANWHILE...A FRONT WILL WOBBLE TOWARD THE REGION FROM THE
PLAINS. THE FRONT WILL HAVE DIFFICULTLY HEADING TO THE EAST
BECAUSE OF HIGH PRESSURE. THE FRONT WILL GET CLOSE ENOUGH TO
WARRANT THE MENTION OF ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS IN NORTHERN/WESTERN SECTIONS OF THE STATE EACH DAY.

IT DOES APPEAR THAT THE FRONT WILL FINALLY GET HERE IN THE
EXTENDED PERIOD...WITH BETTER CHANCES OF RAIN.

LONG TERM...SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY
UPPER LEVEL FLOW WILL BE SW OVER THE REGION AT THE START OF THE LONG
TERM PERIOD...WITH PLENTY OF MOISTURE IN PLACE OVER THE STATE.
PRECIP CHANCES WILL BE SOMEWHAT HIGH AS A RESULT...THOUGH WILL
DEPENDING ON WHEN ANY DISTURBANCES LIFT NE IN THE SW FLOW ALOFT.
THIS WILL CONTINUE TO BE THE TREND FOR SUN AND INTO EARLY MON...AS
THE UPPER TROUGH TO THE WEST VERY SLOWLY MOVES EAST AND NE. BY LATER
ON MON...AN UPPER TROUGH WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS THE
PLAINS...DEEPENING OVER TIME. THIS WILL SEND A COLD FRONT SOUTH
THROUGH THE REGION...WITH PRECIP CHANCES ENDING BY THE END OF THE
FORECAST. TEMPS THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL HOVER IN THE 70S AND 80S FOR
HIGHS THROUGH SUN...THOUGH COULD SEE A FEW DEG COOLER IF WIDESPREAD
RAINFALL WERE TO PERSIST. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE 60S
TO AROUND 70. SLIGHTLY COOLER AND MUCH DRIER CONDITIONS WILL BE SEEN
BEHIND THIS FRONT BY NEXT TUE.
&&

.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&

$$

AVIATION...58




000
FXUS64 KLZK 052016
AFDLZK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
316 PM CDT TUE MAY 5 2015

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT
HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE/ALOFT OVER THE SOUTHEAST UNITED
STATES WILL BE THE DOMINANT FEATURE IN THE NEAR TERM. THIS WILL
KEEP A SOUTHERLY WIND FLOW GOING ACROSS ARKANSAS...WITH ABOVE
NORMAL TEMPERATURES IN THE FORECAST. MOISTURE LEVELS WILL ALSO
SLOWLY CLIMB.

MEANWHILE...A FRONT WILL WOBBLE TOWARD THE REGION FROM THE
PLAINS. THE FRONT WILL HAVE DIFFICULTLY HEADING TO THE EAST
BECAUSE OF HIGH PRESSURE. THE FRONT WILL GET CLOSE ENOUGH TO
WARRANT THE MENTION OF ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS IN NORTHERN/WESTERN SECTIONS OF THE STATE EACH DAY.

IT DOES APPEAR THAT THE FRONT WILL FINALLY GET HERE IN THE
EXTENDED PERIOD...WITH BETTER CHANCES OF RAIN.
&&

.LONG TERM...SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY
UPPER LEVEL FLOW WILL BE SW OVER THE REGION AT THE START OF THE LONG
TERM PERIOD...WITH PLENTY OF MOISTURE IN PLACE OVER THE STATE.
PRECIP CHANCES WILL BE SOMEWHAT HIGH AS A RESULT...THOUGH WILL
DEPENDING ON WHEN ANY DISTURBANCES LIFT NE IN THE SW FLOW ALOFT.
THIS WILL CONTINUE TO BE THE TREND FOR SUN AND INTO EARLY MON...AS
THE UPPER TROUGH TO THE WEST VERY SLOWLY MOVES EAST AND NE. BY LATER
ON MON...AN UPPER TROUGH WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS THE
PLAINS...DEEPENING OVER TIME. THIS WILL SEND A COLD FRONT SOUTH
THROUGH THE REGION...WITH PRECIP CHANCES ENDING BY THE END OF THE
FORECAST. TEMPS THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL HOVER IN THE 70S AND 80S FOR
HIGHS THROUGH SUN...THOUGH COULD SEE A FEW DEG COOLER IF WIDESPREAD
RAINFALL WERE TO PERSIST. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE 60S
TO AROUND 70. SLIGHTLY COOLER AND MUCH DRIER CONDITIONS WILL BE SEEN
BEHIND THIS FRONT BY NEXT TUE.
&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BATESVILLE AR     60  82  63  82 /  10  10  10  20
CAMDEN AR         61  83  64  85 /  10  10  10  20
HARRISON AR       61  78  60  80 /  20  30  10  30
HOT SPRINGS AR    63  82  64  82 /  20  10  10  20
LITTLE ROCK   AR  61  83  64  84 /  10  10  10  20
MONTICELLO AR     61  83  65  84 /  10  10  10  10
MOUNT IDA AR      61  79  64  81 /  20  20  10  20
MOUNTAIN HOME AR  59  79  61  81 /  10  20  10  30
NEWPORT AR        61  83  63  83 /   0  10  10  20
PINE BLUFF AR     61  83  64  84 /  10  10  10  10
RUSSELLVILLE AR   61  81  62  83 /  20  20  10  30
SEARCY AR         59  82  62  83 /  10  10  10  20
STUTTGART AR      61  82  64  84 /  10  10  10  20
&&

.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...46 / LONG TERM...62






000
FXUS64 KLZK 052016
AFDLZK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
316 PM CDT TUE MAY 5 2015

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT
HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE/ALOFT OVER THE SOUTHEAST UNITED
STATES WILL BE THE DOMINANT FEATURE IN THE NEAR TERM. THIS WILL
KEEP A SOUTHERLY WIND FLOW GOING ACROSS ARKANSAS...WITH ABOVE
NORMAL TEMPERATURES IN THE FORECAST. MOISTURE LEVELS WILL ALSO
SLOWLY CLIMB.

MEANWHILE...A FRONT WILL WOBBLE TOWARD THE REGION FROM THE
PLAINS. THE FRONT WILL HAVE DIFFICULTLY HEADING TO THE EAST
BECAUSE OF HIGH PRESSURE. THE FRONT WILL GET CLOSE ENOUGH TO
WARRANT THE MENTION OF ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS IN NORTHERN/WESTERN SECTIONS OF THE STATE EACH DAY.

IT DOES APPEAR THAT THE FRONT WILL FINALLY GET HERE IN THE
EXTENDED PERIOD...WITH BETTER CHANCES OF RAIN.
&&

.LONG TERM...SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY
UPPER LEVEL FLOW WILL BE SW OVER THE REGION AT THE START OF THE LONG
TERM PERIOD...WITH PLENTY OF MOISTURE IN PLACE OVER THE STATE.
PRECIP CHANCES WILL BE SOMEWHAT HIGH AS A RESULT...THOUGH WILL
DEPENDING ON WHEN ANY DISTURBANCES LIFT NE IN THE SW FLOW ALOFT.
THIS WILL CONTINUE TO BE THE TREND FOR SUN AND INTO EARLY MON...AS
THE UPPER TROUGH TO THE WEST VERY SLOWLY MOVES EAST AND NE. BY LATER
ON MON...AN UPPER TROUGH WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS THE
PLAINS...DEEPENING OVER TIME. THIS WILL SEND A COLD FRONT SOUTH
THROUGH THE REGION...WITH PRECIP CHANCES ENDING BY THE END OF THE
FORECAST. TEMPS THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL HOVER IN THE 70S AND 80S FOR
HIGHS THROUGH SUN...THOUGH COULD SEE A FEW DEG COOLER IF WIDESPREAD
RAINFALL WERE TO PERSIST. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE 60S
TO AROUND 70. SLIGHTLY COOLER AND MUCH DRIER CONDITIONS WILL BE SEEN
BEHIND THIS FRONT BY NEXT TUE.
&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BATESVILLE AR     60  82  63  82 /  10  10  10  20
CAMDEN AR         61  83  64  85 /  10  10  10  20
HARRISON AR       61  78  60  80 /  20  30  10  30
HOT SPRINGS AR    63  82  64  82 /  20  10  10  20
LITTLE ROCK   AR  61  83  64  84 /  10  10  10  20
MONTICELLO AR     61  83  65  84 /  10  10  10  10
MOUNT IDA AR      61  79  64  81 /  20  20  10  20
MOUNTAIN HOME AR  59  79  61  81 /  10  20  10  30
NEWPORT AR        61  83  63  83 /   0  10  10  20
PINE BLUFF AR     61  83  64  84 /  10  10  10  10
RUSSELLVILLE AR   61  81  62  83 /  20  20  10  30
SEARCY AR         59  82  62  83 /  10  10  10  20
STUTTGART AR      61  82  64  84 /  10  10  10  20
&&

.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...46 / LONG TERM...62





000
FXUS64 KLZK 051732 AAA
AFDLZK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
1232 PM CDT TUE MAY 5 2015

.DISCUSSION...

UPDATED TO INCLUDE THE 18Z AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW...

&&

.AVIATION...

SOME SHRA AND TSRA COULD BE SEEN ACROSS THE NRN SITES...AND ACROSS
THE WRN PORTIONS OF THE CWA THIS AFTERNOON...WITH SOME SITES
SEEING SOME PRECIP OVERNIGHT INTO WED MORNING AS WELL. MAINLY VFR
CONDITIONS WILL BE SEEN THROUGHOUT THE TAF PERIOD...WITH
EXCEPTIONS BEING UNDER ANY SHRA/TSRA.

&&

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 407 AM CDT TUE MAY 5 2015/

SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY

SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW CONTINUES ACROSS ARKANSAS THIS MORNING AS
THE STATE LIES BETWEEN SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OFF THE COAST OF THE
CAROLINAS AND WEAK LOW PRESSURE IN FAR WESTERN TEXAS. THE SFC LOW
IN TEXAS WILL LIFT NORTH TODAY IN RESPONSE TO AN UPPER WAVE MOVING
FROM THE SOUTHERN ARIZONA/NEW MEXICO BORDER THIS MORNING TO THE
COLORADO HIGH PLAINS BY THIS EVENING. ASCENT AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE
WILL YIELD SOME ISOLATED TO SCATTERED CONVECTION THIS AFTERNOON
ALONG THE OKLAHOMA/ARKANSAS BORDER...WITH MORE WIDESPREAD
CONVECTION CLOSER TO THE DISTURBANCE BACK IN CENTRAL AND WESTERN
OKLAHOMA. HAVE SOME 20-30 PERCENT RAIN CHANCES IN WESTERN ARKANSAS
TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS. THE SHORTWAVE AXIS WILL ROTATE THROUGH NE
OKLAHOMA DURING THE DAY WEDNESDAY...TRIGGERING MORE SCATTERED
CONVECTION ALONG THE OK/AR BORDER ONCE AGAIN. A FEW STRAY SHOWERS
CANNOT BE RULED OUT ACROSS CENTRAL OR EVEN EASTERN ARKANSAS TODAY
OR TOMORROW...GIVEN THERE ARE A FEW ON RADAR NORTH OF THE LITTLE
ROCK AREA THIS MORNING. HOWEVER FEEL THAT THE MAIN FOCUS FOR ANY
RAINFALL WILL BE IN WESTERN ARKANSAS.

BY LATE WED NIGHT THIS LEAD WAVE WILL HAVE SHIFTED TO THE NRN
PLAINS...WITH A CLOSED LOW DROPPING SOUTH THROUGH CALIFORNIA. THIS
WESTERN TROUGH/EASTERN RIDGE PATTERN WILL THEN HOLD THROUGH THE
END OF THE WEEK. DISTURBANCES IN THE SOUTHWEST UPPER FLOW IN PLACE
ATOP THE SRN PLAINS WILL SPARK OFF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ON
WED...THU...AND AGAIN ON FRI. EACH ROUND OF RAIN WILL GRADUALLY
SHIFT EAST...WITH RAIN CHANCES ACROSS MUCH OF THE STATE BY FRI
AFTERNOON.

TEMPERATURES DURING THE SHORT TERM ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN ABOVE
NORMAL.

LONG TERM...SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY

MEDIUM RANGE MODELS ARE CONTINUING TO BE IN DECENT ENOUGH
AGREEMENT THAT IT IS INCREASINGLY DIFFICULT TO SETTLE ON ONE
SOLUTION VERSUS ANOTHER. FEEL THE BEST COURSE OF ACTION IS TO
SIMPLY BLEND FORECAST SOLUTIONS.

PERIOD STARTS OFF ONCE AGAIN WITH UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE AND
ITS ASSOCIATED TROUGH OVER THE DESERT SOUTHWEST. A CUT OFF UPPER
LOW OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST WILL CONTINUE TO MEANDER THROUGH THE
WEEKEND BEFORE FINALLY LIFTING OUT. MEANWHILE...SOUTHWEST SYSTEM
WILL LIFT WITH ASSOCIATED SURFACE REFLECTION MOVING INTO THE
NORTHERN PLAINS BY MONDAY MORNING.

RESULTANT PATTERN WILL PROVIDE SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT THAT WILL TAP
INTO PACIFIC MOISTURE. SEVERAL ROUNDS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
WILL PERSIST UNTIL THE ASSOCIATED FRONT CLEARS THE AREA DURING THE
DAY MONDAY. THERE ARE ENOUGH TIMING DIFFERENCES BETWEEN THESE WAVES
THAT MORE OF A BROAD BRUSH APPROACH WILL BE USED. TEMPERATURES LOOK
TO AVERAGE A FEW DEGREES ABOUT NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BATESVILLE AR     83  60  82  63 /  20  10  10  10
CAMDEN AR         84  61  83  64 /  10  10  10  10
HARRISON AR       80  61  78  60 /  20  20  30  10
HOT SPRINGS AR    82  63  82  64 /  20  20  10  10
LITTLE ROCK   AR  84  61  83  64 /  10  10  10  10
MONTICELLO AR     84  61  83  65 /  10  10  10  10
MOUNT IDA AR      81  61  79  64 /  20  20  20  10
MOUNTAIN HOME AR  82  59  79  61 /  20  10  20  10
NEWPORT AR        84  61  83  63 /  20   0  10  10
PINE BLUFF AR     84  61  83  64 /  10  10  10  10
RUSSELLVILLE AR   83  61  81  62 /  20  20  20  10
SEARCY AR         83  59  82  62 /  10  10  10  10
STUTTGART AR      83  61  82  64 /  10  10  10  10
&&

.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&

$$


AVIATION...62






000
FXUS64 KLZK 051732 AAA
AFDLZK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
1232 PM CDT TUE MAY 5 2015

.DISCUSSION...

UPDATED TO INCLUDE THE 18Z AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW...

&&

.AVIATION...

SOME SHRA AND TSRA COULD BE SEEN ACROSS THE NRN SITES...AND ACROSS
THE WRN PORTIONS OF THE CWA THIS AFTERNOON...WITH SOME SITES
SEEING SOME PRECIP OVERNIGHT INTO WED MORNING AS WELL. MAINLY VFR
CONDITIONS WILL BE SEEN THROUGHOUT THE TAF PERIOD...WITH
EXCEPTIONS BEING UNDER ANY SHRA/TSRA.

&&

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 407 AM CDT TUE MAY 5 2015/

SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY

SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW CONTINUES ACROSS ARKANSAS THIS MORNING AS
THE STATE LIES BETWEEN SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OFF THE COAST OF THE
CAROLINAS AND WEAK LOW PRESSURE IN FAR WESTERN TEXAS. THE SFC LOW
IN TEXAS WILL LIFT NORTH TODAY IN RESPONSE TO AN UPPER WAVE MOVING
FROM THE SOUTHERN ARIZONA/NEW MEXICO BORDER THIS MORNING TO THE
COLORADO HIGH PLAINS BY THIS EVENING. ASCENT AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE
WILL YIELD SOME ISOLATED TO SCATTERED CONVECTION THIS AFTERNOON
ALONG THE OKLAHOMA/ARKANSAS BORDER...WITH MORE WIDESPREAD
CONVECTION CLOSER TO THE DISTURBANCE BACK IN CENTRAL AND WESTERN
OKLAHOMA. HAVE SOME 20-30 PERCENT RAIN CHANCES IN WESTERN ARKANSAS
TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS. THE SHORTWAVE AXIS WILL ROTATE THROUGH NE
OKLAHOMA DURING THE DAY WEDNESDAY...TRIGGERING MORE SCATTERED
CONVECTION ALONG THE OK/AR BORDER ONCE AGAIN. A FEW STRAY SHOWERS
CANNOT BE RULED OUT ACROSS CENTRAL OR EVEN EASTERN ARKANSAS TODAY
OR TOMORROW...GIVEN THERE ARE A FEW ON RADAR NORTH OF THE LITTLE
ROCK AREA THIS MORNING. HOWEVER FEEL THAT THE MAIN FOCUS FOR ANY
RAINFALL WILL BE IN WESTERN ARKANSAS.

BY LATE WED NIGHT THIS LEAD WAVE WILL HAVE SHIFTED TO THE NRN
PLAINS...WITH A CLOSED LOW DROPPING SOUTH THROUGH CALIFORNIA. THIS
WESTERN TROUGH/EASTERN RIDGE PATTERN WILL THEN HOLD THROUGH THE
END OF THE WEEK. DISTURBANCES IN THE SOUTHWEST UPPER FLOW IN PLACE
ATOP THE SRN PLAINS WILL SPARK OFF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ON
WED...THU...AND AGAIN ON FRI. EACH ROUND OF RAIN WILL GRADUALLY
SHIFT EAST...WITH RAIN CHANCES ACROSS MUCH OF THE STATE BY FRI
AFTERNOON.

TEMPERATURES DURING THE SHORT TERM ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN ABOVE
NORMAL.

LONG TERM...SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY

MEDIUM RANGE MODELS ARE CONTINUING TO BE IN DECENT ENOUGH
AGREEMENT THAT IT IS INCREASINGLY DIFFICULT TO SETTLE ON ONE
SOLUTION VERSUS ANOTHER. FEEL THE BEST COURSE OF ACTION IS TO
SIMPLY BLEND FORECAST SOLUTIONS.

PERIOD STARTS OFF ONCE AGAIN WITH UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE AND
ITS ASSOCIATED TROUGH OVER THE DESERT SOUTHWEST. A CUT OFF UPPER
LOW OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST WILL CONTINUE TO MEANDER THROUGH THE
WEEKEND BEFORE FINALLY LIFTING OUT. MEANWHILE...SOUTHWEST SYSTEM
WILL LIFT WITH ASSOCIATED SURFACE REFLECTION MOVING INTO THE
NORTHERN PLAINS BY MONDAY MORNING.

RESULTANT PATTERN WILL PROVIDE SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT THAT WILL TAP
INTO PACIFIC MOISTURE. SEVERAL ROUNDS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
WILL PERSIST UNTIL THE ASSOCIATED FRONT CLEARS THE AREA DURING THE
DAY MONDAY. THERE ARE ENOUGH TIMING DIFFERENCES BETWEEN THESE WAVES
THAT MORE OF A BROAD BRUSH APPROACH WILL BE USED. TEMPERATURES LOOK
TO AVERAGE A FEW DEGREES ABOUT NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BATESVILLE AR     83  60  82  63 /  20  10  10  10
CAMDEN AR         84  61  83  64 /  10  10  10  10
HARRISON AR       80  61  78  60 /  20  20  30  10
HOT SPRINGS AR    82  63  82  64 /  20  20  10  10
LITTLE ROCK   AR  84  61  83  64 /  10  10  10  10
MONTICELLO AR     84  61  83  65 /  10  10  10  10
MOUNT IDA AR      81  61  79  64 /  20  20  20  10
MOUNTAIN HOME AR  82  59  79  61 /  20  10  20  10
NEWPORT AR        84  61  83  63 /  20   0  10  10
PINE BLUFF AR     84  61  83  64 /  10  10  10  10
RUSSELLVILLE AR   83  61  81  62 /  20  20  20  10
SEARCY AR         83  59  82  62 /  10  10  10  10
STUTTGART AR      83  61  82  64 /  10  10  10  10
&&

.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&

$$


AVIATION...62





000
FXUS64 KLZK 051732 AAA
AFDLZK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
1232 PM CDT TUE MAY 5 2015

.DISCUSSION...

UPDATED TO INCLUDE THE 18Z AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW...

&&

.AVIATION...

SOME SHRA AND TSRA COULD BE SEEN ACROSS THE NRN SITES...AND ACROSS
THE WRN PORTIONS OF THE CWA THIS AFTERNOON...WITH SOME SITES
SEEING SOME PRECIP OVERNIGHT INTO WED MORNING AS WELL. MAINLY VFR
CONDITIONS WILL BE SEEN THROUGHOUT THE TAF PERIOD...WITH
EXCEPTIONS BEING UNDER ANY SHRA/TSRA.

&&

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 407 AM CDT TUE MAY 5 2015/

SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY

SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW CONTINUES ACROSS ARKANSAS THIS MORNING AS
THE STATE LIES BETWEEN SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OFF THE COAST OF THE
CAROLINAS AND WEAK LOW PRESSURE IN FAR WESTERN TEXAS. THE SFC LOW
IN TEXAS WILL LIFT NORTH TODAY IN RESPONSE TO AN UPPER WAVE MOVING
FROM THE SOUTHERN ARIZONA/NEW MEXICO BORDER THIS MORNING TO THE
COLORADO HIGH PLAINS BY THIS EVENING. ASCENT AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE
WILL YIELD SOME ISOLATED TO SCATTERED CONVECTION THIS AFTERNOON
ALONG THE OKLAHOMA/ARKANSAS BORDER...WITH MORE WIDESPREAD
CONVECTION CLOSER TO THE DISTURBANCE BACK IN CENTRAL AND WESTERN
OKLAHOMA. HAVE SOME 20-30 PERCENT RAIN CHANCES IN WESTERN ARKANSAS
TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS. THE SHORTWAVE AXIS WILL ROTATE THROUGH NE
OKLAHOMA DURING THE DAY WEDNESDAY...TRIGGERING MORE SCATTERED
CONVECTION ALONG THE OK/AR BORDER ONCE AGAIN. A FEW STRAY SHOWERS
CANNOT BE RULED OUT ACROSS CENTRAL OR EVEN EASTERN ARKANSAS TODAY
OR TOMORROW...GIVEN THERE ARE A FEW ON RADAR NORTH OF THE LITTLE
ROCK AREA THIS MORNING. HOWEVER FEEL THAT THE MAIN FOCUS FOR ANY
RAINFALL WILL BE IN WESTERN ARKANSAS.

BY LATE WED NIGHT THIS LEAD WAVE WILL HAVE SHIFTED TO THE NRN
PLAINS...WITH A CLOSED LOW DROPPING SOUTH THROUGH CALIFORNIA. THIS
WESTERN TROUGH/EASTERN RIDGE PATTERN WILL THEN HOLD THROUGH THE
END OF THE WEEK. DISTURBANCES IN THE SOUTHWEST UPPER FLOW IN PLACE
ATOP THE SRN PLAINS WILL SPARK OFF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ON
WED...THU...AND AGAIN ON FRI. EACH ROUND OF RAIN WILL GRADUALLY
SHIFT EAST...WITH RAIN CHANCES ACROSS MUCH OF THE STATE BY FRI
AFTERNOON.

TEMPERATURES DURING THE SHORT TERM ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN ABOVE
NORMAL.

LONG TERM...SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY

MEDIUM RANGE MODELS ARE CONTINUING TO BE IN DECENT ENOUGH
AGREEMENT THAT IT IS INCREASINGLY DIFFICULT TO SETTLE ON ONE
SOLUTION VERSUS ANOTHER. FEEL THE BEST COURSE OF ACTION IS TO
SIMPLY BLEND FORECAST SOLUTIONS.

PERIOD STARTS OFF ONCE AGAIN WITH UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE AND
ITS ASSOCIATED TROUGH OVER THE DESERT SOUTHWEST. A CUT OFF UPPER
LOW OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST WILL CONTINUE TO MEANDER THROUGH THE
WEEKEND BEFORE FINALLY LIFTING OUT. MEANWHILE...SOUTHWEST SYSTEM
WILL LIFT WITH ASSOCIATED SURFACE REFLECTION MOVING INTO THE
NORTHERN PLAINS BY MONDAY MORNING.

RESULTANT PATTERN WILL PROVIDE SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT THAT WILL TAP
INTO PACIFIC MOISTURE. SEVERAL ROUNDS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
WILL PERSIST UNTIL THE ASSOCIATED FRONT CLEARS THE AREA DURING THE
DAY MONDAY. THERE ARE ENOUGH TIMING DIFFERENCES BETWEEN THESE WAVES
THAT MORE OF A BROAD BRUSH APPROACH WILL BE USED. TEMPERATURES LOOK
TO AVERAGE A FEW DEGREES ABOUT NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BATESVILLE AR     83  60  82  63 /  20  10  10  10
CAMDEN AR         84  61  83  64 /  10  10  10  10
HARRISON AR       80  61  78  60 /  20  20  30  10
HOT SPRINGS AR    82  63  82  64 /  20  20  10  10
LITTLE ROCK   AR  84  61  83  64 /  10  10  10  10
MONTICELLO AR     84  61  83  65 /  10  10  10  10
MOUNT IDA AR      81  61  79  64 /  20  20  20  10
MOUNTAIN HOME AR  82  59  79  61 /  20  10  20  10
NEWPORT AR        84  61  83  63 /  20   0  10  10
PINE BLUFF AR     84  61  83  64 /  10  10  10  10
RUSSELLVILLE AR   83  61  81  62 /  20  20  20  10
SEARCY AR         83  59  82  62 /  10  10  10  10
STUTTGART AR      83  61  82  64 /  10  10  10  10
&&

.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&

$$


AVIATION...62






000
FXUS64 KLZK 051732 AAA
AFDLZK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
1232 PM CDT TUE MAY 5 2015

.DISCUSSION...

UPDATED TO INCLUDE THE 18Z AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW...

&&

.AVIATION...

SOME SHRA AND TSRA COULD BE SEEN ACROSS THE NRN SITES...AND ACROSS
THE WRN PORTIONS OF THE CWA THIS AFTERNOON...WITH SOME SITES
SEEING SOME PRECIP OVERNIGHT INTO WED MORNING AS WELL. MAINLY VFR
CONDITIONS WILL BE SEEN THROUGHOUT THE TAF PERIOD...WITH
EXCEPTIONS BEING UNDER ANY SHRA/TSRA.

&&

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 407 AM CDT TUE MAY 5 2015/

SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY

SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW CONTINUES ACROSS ARKANSAS THIS MORNING AS
THE STATE LIES BETWEEN SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OFF THE COAST OF THE
CAROLINAS AND WEAK LOW PRESSURE IN FAR WESTERN TEXAS. THE SFC LOW
IN TEXAS WILL LIFT NORTH TODAY IN RESPONSE TO AN UPPER WAVE MOVING
FROM THE SOUTHERN ARIZONA/NEW MEXICO BORDER THIS MORNING TO THE
COLORADO HIGH PLAINS BY THIS EVENING. ASCENT AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE
WILL YIELD SOME ISOLATED TO SCATTERED CONVECTION THIS AFTERNOON
ALONG THE OKLAHOMA/ARKANSAS BORDER...WITH MORE WIDESPREAD
CONVECTION CLOSER TO THE DISTURBANCE BACK IN CENTRAL AND WESTERN
OKLAHOMA. HAVE SOME 20-30 PERCENT RAIN CHANCES IN WESTERN ARKANSAS
TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS. THE SHORTWAVE AXIS WILL ROTATE THROUGH NE
OKLAHOMA DURING THE DAY WEDNESDAY...TRIGGERING MORE SCATTERED
CONVECTION ALONG THE OK/AR BORDER ONCE AGAIN. A FEW STRAY SHOWERS
CANNOT BE RULED OUT ACROSS CENTRAL OR EVEN EASTERN ARKANSAS TODAY
OR TOMORROW...GIVEN THERE ARE A FEW ON RADAR NORTH OF THE LITTLE
ROCK AREA THIS MORNING. HOWEVER FEEL THAT THE MAIN FOCUS FOR ANY
RAINFALL WILL BE IN WESTERN ARKANSAS.

BY LATE WED NIGHT THIS LEAD WAVE WILL HAVE SHIFTED TO THE NRN
PLAINS...WITH A CLOSED LOW DROPPING SOUTH THROUGH CALIFORNIA. THIS
WESTERN TROUGH/EASTERN RIDGE PATTERN WILL THEN HOLD THROUGH THE
END OF THE WEEK. DISTURBANCES IN THE SOUTHWEST UPPER FLOW IN PLACE
ATOP THE SRN PLAINS WILL SPARK OFF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ON
WED...THU...AND AGAIN ON FRI. EACH ROUND OF RAIN WILL GRADUALLY
SHIFT EAST...WITH RAIN CHANCES ACROSS MUCH OF THE STATE BY FRI
AFTERNOON.

TEMPERATURES DURING THE SHORT TERM ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN ABOVE
NORMAL.

LONG TERM...SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY

MEDIUM RANGE MODELS ARE CONTINUING TO BE IN DECENT ENOUGH
AGREEMENT THAT IT IS INCREASINGLY DIFFICULT TO SETTLE ON ONE
SOLUTION VERSUS ANOTHER. FEEL THE BEST COURSE OF ACTION IS TO
SIMPLY BLEND FORECAST SOLUTIONS.

PERIOD STARTS OFF ONCE AGAIN WITH UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE AND
ITS ASSOCIATED TROUGH OVER THE DESERT SOUTHWEST. A CUT OFF UPPER
LOW OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST WILL CONTINUE TO MEANDER THROUGH THE
WEEKEND BEFORE FINALLY LIFTING OUT. MEANWHILE...SOUTHWEST SYSTEM
WILL LIFT WITH ASSOCIATED SURFACE REFLECTION MOVING INTO THE
NORTHERN PLAINS BY MONDAY MORNING.

RESULTANT PATTERN WILL PROVIDE SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT THAT WILL TAP
INTO PACIFIC MOISTURE. SEVERAL ROUNDS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
WILL PERSIST UNTIL THE ASSOCIATED FRONT CLEARS THE AREA DURING THE
DAY MONDAY. THERE ARE ENOUGH TIMING DIFFERENCES BETWEEN THESE WAVES
THAT MORE OF A BROAD BRUSH APPROACH WILL BE USED. TEMPERATURES LOOK
TO AVERAGE A FEW DEGREES ABOUT NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BATESVILLE AR     83  60  82  63 /  20  10  10  10
CAMDEN AR         84  61  83  64 /  10  10  10  10
HARRISON AR       80  61  78  60 /  20  20  30  10
HOT SPRINGS AR    82  63  82  64 /  20  20  10  10
LITTLE ROCK   AR  84  61  83  64 /  10  10  10  10
MONTICELLO AR     84  61  83  65 /  10  10  10  10
MOUNT IDA AR      81  61  79  64 /  20  20  20  10
MOUNTAIN HOME AR  82  59  79  61 /  20  10  20  10
NEWPORT AR        84  61  83  63 /  20   0  10  10
PINE BLUFF AR     84  61  83  64 /  10  10  10  10
RUSSELLVILLE AR   83  61  81  62 /  20  20  20  10
SEARCY AR         83  59  82  62 /  10  10  10  10
STUTTGART AR      83  61  82  64 /  10  10  10  10
&&

.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&

$$


AVIATION...62





000
FXUS64 KLZK 051154
AFDLZK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
654 AM CDT TUE MAY 5 2015

.AVIATION...
AN AREA OF SHOWERS OVER NORTH CENTRAL ARKANSAS MAY BRING A SHOWER
OR TWO TO KBPK THIS MORNING BUT NO OTHER TAF SITE WILL BE AFFECTED.
OTHERWISE WIDESPREAD VFR CONDITION WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE
PERIOD. AFTERNOON CUMULUS DEVELOPMENT IS EXPECTED WITH GUSTY SOUTH
TO SOUTHEAST WINDS DEVELOPING ONCE AGAIN.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 407 AM CDT TUE MAY 5 2015/

SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY

SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW CONTINUES ACROSS ARKANSAS THIS MORNING AS
THE STATE LIES BETWEEN SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OFF THE COAST OF THE
CAROLINAS AND WEAK LOW PRESSURE IN FAR WESTERN TEXAS. THE SFC LOW
IN TEXAS WILL LIFT NORTH TODAY IN RESPONSE TO AN UPPER WAVE MOVING
FROM THE SOUTHERN ARIZONA/NEW MEXICO BORDER THIS MORNING TO THE
COLORADO HIGH PLAINS BY THIS EVENING. ASCENT AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE
WILL YIELD SOME ISOLATED TO SCATTERED CONVECTION THIS AFTERNOON
ALONG THE OKLAHOMA/ARKANSAS BORDER...WITH MORE WIDESPREAD
CONVECTION CLOSER TO THE DISTURBANCE BACK IN CENTRAL AND WESTERN
OKLAHOMA. HAVE SOME 20-30 PERCENT RAIN CHANCES IN WESTERN ARKANSAS
TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS. THE SHORTWAVE AXIS WILL ROTATE THROUGH NE
OKLAHOMA DURING THE DAY WEDNESDAY...TRIGGERING MORE SCATTERED
CONVECTION ALONG THE OK/AR BORDER ONCE AGAIN. A FEW STRAY SHOWERS
CANNOT BE RULED OUT ACROSS CENTRAL OR EVEN EASTERN ARKANSAS TODAY
OR TOMORROW...GIVEN THERE ARE A FEW ON RADAR NORTH OF THE LITTLE
ROCK AREA THIS MORNING. HOWEVER FEEL THAT THE MAIN FOCUS FOR ANY
RAINFALL WILL BE IN WESTERN ARKANSAS.

BY LATE WED NIGHT THIS LEAD WAVE WILL HAVE SHIFTED TO THE NRN
PLAINS...WITH A CLOSED LOW DROPPING SOUTH THROUGH CALIFORNIA. THIS
WESTERN TROUGH/EASTERN RIDGE PATTERN WILL THEN HOLD THROUGH THE
END OF THE WEEK. DISTURBANCES IN THE SOUTHWEST UPPER FLOW IN PLACE
ATOP THE SRN PLAINS WILL SPARK OFF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ON
WED...THU...AND AGAIN ON FRI. EACH ROUND OF RAIN WILL GRADUALLY
SHIFT EAST...WITH RAIN CHANCES ACROSS MUCH OF THE STATE BY FRI
AFTERNOON.

TEMPERATURES DURING THE SHORT TERM ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN ABOVE
NORMAL.

LONG TERM...SUNDAY THROUGH SUNDAY

MEDIUM RANGE MODELS ARE CONTINUING TO BE IN DECENT ENOUGH
AGREEMENT THAT IT IS INCREASINGLY DIFFICULT TO SETTLE ON ONE
SOLUTION VERSUS ANOTHER. FEEL THE BEST COURSE OF ACTION IS TO
SIMPLY BLEND FORECAST SOLUTIONS.

PERIOD STARTS OFF ONCE AGAIN WITH UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE AND
ITS ASSOCIATED TROUGH OVER THE DESERT SOUTHWEST. A CUT OFF UPPER
LOW OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST WILL CONTINUE TO MEANDER THROUGH THE
WEEKEND BEFORE FINALLY LIFTING OUT. MEANWHILE...SOUTHWEST SYSTEM
WILL LIFT WITH ASSOCIATED SURFACE REFLECTION MOVING INTO THE
NORTHERN PLAINS BY MONDAY MORNING.

RESULTANT PATTERN WILL PROVIDE SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT THAT WILL TAP
INTO PACIFIC MOISTURE. SEVERAL ROUNDS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
WILL PERSIST UNTIL THE ASSOCIATED FRONT CLEARS THE AREA DURING THE
DAY MONDAY. THERE ARE ENOUGH TIMING DIFFERENCES BETWEEN THESE WAVES
THAT MORE OF A BROAD BRUSH APPROACH WILL BE USED. TEMPERATURES LOOK
TO AVERAGE A FEW DEGREES ABOUT NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BATESVILLE AR     83  60  82  63 /  20  10  10  10
CAMDEN AR         84  61  83  64 /  10  10  10  10
HARRISON AR       80  61  78  60 /  20  20  30  10
HOT SPRINGS AR    82  63  82  64 /  10  20  10  10
LITTLE ROCK   AR  84  61  83  64 /  10  10  10  10
MONTICELLO AR     84  61  83  65 /  10  10  10  10
MOUNT IDA AR      81  61  79  64 /  20  20  20  10
MOUNTAIN HOME AR  82  59  79  61 /  20  10  20  10
NEWPORT AR        84  61  83  63 /  20   0  10  10
PINE BLUFF AR     84  61  83  64 /  10  10  10  10
RUSSELLVILLE AR   83  61  81  62 /  20  20  20  10
SEARCY AR         83  59  82  62 /  10  10  10  10
STUTTGART AR      83  61  82  64 /  10  10  10  10
&&

.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&

$$


AVIATION...56







000
FXUS64 KLZK 051154
AFDLZK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
654 AM CDT TUE MAY 5 2015

.AVIATION...
AN AREA OF SHOWERS OVER NORTH CENTRAL ARKANSAS MAY BRING A SHOWER
OR TWO TO KBPK THIS MORNING BUT NO OTHER TAF SITE WILL BE AFFECTED.
OTHERWISE WIDESPREAD VFR CONDITION WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE
PERIOD. AFTERNOON CUMULUS DEVELOPMENT IS EXPECTED WITH GUSTY SOUTH
TO SOUTHEAST WINDS DEVELOPING ONCE AGAIN.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 407 AM CDT TUE MAY 5 2015/

SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY

SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW CONTINUES ACROSS ARKANSAS THIS MORNING AS
THE STATE LIES BETWEEN SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OFF THE COAST OF THE
CAROLINAS AND WEAK LOW PRESSURE IN FAR WESTERN TEXAS. THE SFC LOW
IN TEXAS WILL LIFT NORTH TODAY IN RESPONSE TO AN UPPER WAVE MOVING
FROM THE SOUTHERN ARIZONA/NEW MEXICO BORDER THIS MORNING TO THE
COLORADO HIGH PLAINS BY THIS EVENING. ASCENT AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE
WILL YIELD SOME ISOLATED TO SCATTERED CONVECTION THIS AFTERNOON
ALONG THE OKLAHOMA/ARKANSAS BORDER...WITH MORE WIDESPREAD
CONVECTION CLOSER TO THE DISTURBANCE BACK IN CENTRAL AND WESTERN
OKLAHOMA. HAVE SOME 20-30 PERCENT RAIN CHANCES IN WESTERN ARKANSAS
TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS. THE SHORTWAVE AXIS WILL ROTATE THROUGH NE
OKLAHOMA DURING THE DAY WEDNESDAY...TRIGGERING MORE SCATTERED
CONVECTION ALONG THE OK/AR BORDER ONCE AGAIN. A FEW STRAY SHOWERS
CANNOT BE RULED OUT ACROSS CENTRAL OR EVEN EASTERN ARKANSAS TODAY
OR TOMORROW...GIVEN THERE ARE A FEW ON RADAR NORTH OF THE LITTLE
ROCK AREA THIS MORNING. HOWEVER FEEL THAT THE MAIN FOCUS FOR ANY
RAINFALL WILL BE IN WESTERN ARKANSAS.

BY LATE WED NIGHT THIS LEAD WAVE WILL HAVE SHIFTED TO THE NRN
PLAINS...WITH A CLOSED LOW DROPPING SOUTH THROUGH CALIFORNIA. THIS
WESTERN TROUGH/EASTERN RIDGE PATTERN WILL THEN HOLD THROUGH THE
END OF THE WEEK. DISTURBANCES IN THE SOUTHWEST UPPER FLOW IN PLACE
ATOP THE SRN PLAINS WILL SPARK OFF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ON
WED...THU...AND AGAIN ON FRI. EACH ROUND OF RAIN WILL GRADUALLY
SHIFT EAST...WITH RAIN CHANCES ACROSS MUCH OF THE STATE BY FRI
AFTERNOON.

TEMPERATURES DURING THE SHORT TERM ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN ABOVE
NORMAL.

LONG TERM...SUNDAY THROUGH SUNDAY

MEDIUM RANGE MODELS ARE CONTINUING TO BE IN DECENT ENOUGH
AGREEMENT THAT IT IS INCREASINGLY DIFFICULT TO SETTLE ON ONE
SOLUTION VERSUS ANOTHER. FEEL THE BEST COURSE OF ACTION IS TO
SIMPLY BLEND FORECAST SOLUTIONS.

PERIOD STARTS OFF ONCE AGAIN WITH UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE AND
ITS ASSOCIATED TROUGH OVER THE DESERT SOUTHWEST. A CUT OFF UPPER
LOW OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST WILL CONTINUE TO MEANDER THROUGH THE
WEEKEND BEFORE FINALLY LIFTING OUT. MEANWHILE...SOUTHWEST SYSTEM
WILL LIFT WITH ASSOCIATED SURFACE REFLECTION MOVING INTO THE
NORTHERN PLAINS BY MONDAY MORNING.

RESULTANT PATTERN WILL PROVIDE SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT THAT WILL TAP
INTO PACIFIC MOISTURE. SEVERAL ROUNDS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
WILL PERSIST UNTIL THE ASSOCIATED FRONT CLEARS THE AREA DURING THE
DAY MONDAY. THERE ARE ENOUGH TIMING DIFFERENCES BETWEEN THESE WAVES
THAT MORE OF A BROAD BRUSH APPROACH WILL BE USED. TEMPERATURES LOOK
TO AVERAGE A FEW DEGREES ABOUT NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BATESVILLE AR     83  60  82  63 /  20  10  10  10
CAMDEN AR         84  61  83  64 /  10  10  10  10
HARRISON AR       80  61  78  60 /  20  20  30  10
HOT SPRINGS AR    82  63  82  64 /  10  20  10  10
LITTLE ROCK   AR  84  61  83  64 /  10  10  10  10
MONTICELLO AR     84  61  83  65 /  10  10  10  10
MOUNT IDA AR      81  61  79  64 /  20  20  20  10
MOUNTAIN HOME AR  82  59  79  61 /  20  10  20  10
NEWPORT AR        84  61  83  63 /  20   0  10  10
PINE BLUFF AR     84  61  83  64 /  10  10  10  10
RUSSELLVILLE AR   83  61  81  62 /  20  20  20  10
SEARCY AR         83  59  82  62 /  10  10  10  10
STUTTGART AR      83  61  82  64 /  10  10  10  10
&&

.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&

$$


AVIATION...56






000
FXUS64 KLZK 051154
AFDLZK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
654 AM CDT TUE MAY 5 2015

.AVIATION...
AN AREA OF SHOWERS OVER NORTH CENTRAL ARKANSAS MAY BRING A SHOWER
OR TWO TO KBPK THIS MORNING BUT NO OTHER TAF SITE WILL BE AFFECTED.
OTHERWISE WIDESPREAD VFR CONDITION WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE
PERIOD. AFTERNOON CUMULUS DEVELOPMENT IS EXPECTED WITH GUSTY SOUTH
TO SOUTHEAST WINDS DEVELOPING ONCE AGAIN.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 407 AM CDT TUE MAY 5 2015/

SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY

SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW CONTINUES ACROSS ARKANSAS THIS MORNING AS
THE STATE LIES BETWEEN SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OFF THE COAST OF THE
CAROLINAS AND WEAK LOW PRESSURE IN FAR WESTERN TEXAS. THE SFC LOW
IN TEXAS WILL LIFT NORTH TODAY IN RESPONSE TO AN UPPER WAVE MOVING
FROM THE SOUTHERN ARIZONA/NEW MEXICO BORDER THIS MORNING TO THE
COLORADO HIGH PLAINS BY THIS EVENING. ASCENT AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE
WILL YIELD SOME ISOLATED TO SCATTERED CONVECTION THIS AFTERNOON
ALONG THE OKLAHOMA/ARKANSAS BORDER...WITH MORE WIDESPREAD
CONVECTION CLOSER TO THE DISTURBANCE BACK IN CENTRAL AND WESTERN
OKLAHOMA. HAVE SOME 20-30 PERCENT RAIN CHANCES IN WESTERN ARKANSAS
TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS. THE SHORTWAVE AXIS WILL ROTATE THROUGH NE
OKLAHOMA DURING THE DAY WEDNESDAY...TRIGGERING MORE SCATTERED
CONVECTION ALONG THE OK/AR BORDER ONCE AGAIN. A FEW STRAY SHOWERS
CANNOT BE RULED OUT ACROSS CENTRAL OR EVEN EASTERN ARKANSAS TODAY
OR TOMORROW...GIVEN THERE ARE A FEW ON RADAR NORTH OF THE LITTLE
ROCK AREA THIS MORNING. HOWEVER FEEL THAT THE MAIN FOCUS FOR ANY
RAINFALL WILL BE IN WESTERN ARKANSAS.

BY LATE WED NIGHT THIS LEAD WAVE WILL HAVE SHIFTED TO THE NRN
PLAINS...WITH A CLOSED LOW DROPPING SOUTH THROUGH CALIFORNIA. THIS
WESTERN TROUGH/EASTERN RIDGE PATTERN WILL THEN HOLD THROUGH THE
END OF THE WEEK. DISTURBANCES IN THE SOUTHWEST UPPER FLOW IN PLACE
ATOP THE SRN PLAINS WILL SPARK OFF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ON
WED...THU...AND AGAIN ON FRI. EACH ROUND OF RAIN WILL GRADUALLY
SHIFT EAST...WITH RAIN CHANCES ACROSS MUCH OF THE STATE BY FRI
AFTERNOON.

TEMPERATURES DURING THE SHORT TERM ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN ABOVE
NORMAL.

LONG TERM...SUNDAY THROUGH SUNDAY

MEDIUM RANGE MODELS ARE CONTINUING TO BE IN DECENT ENOUGH
AGREEMENT THAT IT IS INCREASINGLY DIFFICULT TO SETTLE ON ONE
SOLUTION VERSUS ANOTHER. FEEL THE BEST COURSE OF ACTION IS TO
SIMPLY BLEND FORECAST SOLUTIONS.

PERIOD STARTS OFF ONCE AGAIN WITH UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE AND
ITS ASSOCIATED TROUGH OVER THE DESERT SOUTHWEST. A CUT OFF UPPER
LOW OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST WILL CONTINUE TO MEANDER THROUGH THE
WEEKEND BEFORE FINALLY LIFTING OUT. MEANWHILE...SOUTHWEST SYSTEM
WILL LIFT WITH ASSOCIATED SURFACE REFLECTION MOVING INTO THE
NORTHERN PLAINS BY MONDAY MORNING.

RESULTANT PATTERN WILL PROVIDE SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT THAT WILL TAP
INTO PACIFIC MOISTURE. SEVERAL ROUNDS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
WILL PERSIST UNTIL THE ASSOCIATED FRONT CLEARS THE AREA DURING THE
DAY MONDAY. THERE ARE ENOUGH TIMING DIFFERENCES BETWEEN THESE WAVES
THAT MORE OF A BROAD BRUSH APPROACH WILL BE USED. TEMPERATURES LOOK
TO AVERAGE A FEW DEGREES ABOUT NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BATESVILLE AR     83  60  82  63 /  20  10  10  10
CAMDEN AR         84  61  83  64 /  10  10  10  10
HARRISON AR       80  61  78  60 /  20  20  30  10
HOT SPRINGS AR    82  63  82  64 /  10  20  10  10
LITTLE ROCK   AR  84  61  83  64 /  10  10  10  10
MONTICELLO AR     84  61  83  65 /  10  10  10  10
MOUNT IDA AR      81  61  79  64 /  20  20  20  10
MOUNTAIN HOME AR  82  59  79  61 /  20  10  20  10
NEWPORT AR        84  61  83  63 /  20   0  10  10
PINE BLUFF AR     84  61  83  64 /  10  10  10  10
RUSSELLVILLE AR   83  61  81  62 /  20  20  20  10
SEARCY AR         83  59  82  62 /  10  10  10  10
STUTTGART AR      83  61  82  64 /  10  10  10  10
&&

.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&

$$


AVIATION...56







000
FXUS64 KLZK 050907
AFDLZK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
407 AM CDT TUE MAY 5 2015

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY

SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW CONTINUES ACROSS ARKANSAS THIS MORNING AS
THE STATE LIES BETWEEN SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OFF THE COAST OF THE
CAROLINAS AND WEAK LOW PRESSURE IN FAR WESTERN TEXAS. THE SFC LOW
IN TEXAS WILL LIFT NORTH TODAY IN RESPONSE TO AN UPPER WAVE MOVING
FROM THE SOUTHERN ARIZONA/NEW MEXICO BORDER THIS MORNING TO THE
COLORADO HIGH PLAINS BY THIS EVENING. ASCENT AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE
WILL YIELD SOME ISOLATED TO SCATTERED CONVECTION THIS AFTERNOON
ALONG THE OKLAHOMA/ARKANSAS BORDER...WITH MORE WIDESPREAD
CONVECTION CLOSER TO THE DISTURBANCE BACK IN CENTRAL AND WESTERN
OKLAHOMA. HAVE SOME 20-30 PERCENT RAIN CHANCES IN WESTERN ARKANSAS
TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS. THE SHORTWAVE AXIS WILL ROTATE THROUGH NE
OKLAHOMA DURING THE DAY WEDNESDAY...TRIGGERING MORE SCATTERED
CONVECTION ALONG THE OK/AR BORDER ONCE AGAIN. A FEW STRAY SHOWERS
CANNOT BE RULED OUT ACROSS CENTRAL OR EVEN EASTERN ARKANSAS TODAY
OR TOMORROW...GIVEN THERE ARE A FEW ON RADAR NORTH OF THE LITTLE
ROCK AREA THIS MORNING. HOWEVER FEEL THAT THE MAIN FOCUS FOR ANY
RAINFALL WILL BE IN WESTERN ARKANSAS.

BY LATE WED NIGHT THIS LEAD WAVE WILL HAVE SHIFTED TO THE NRN
PLAINS...WITH A CLOSED LOW DROPPING SOUTH THROUGH CALIFORNIA. THIS
WESTERN TROUGH/EASTERN RIDGE PATTERN WILL THEN HOLD THROUGH THE
END OF THE WEEK. DISTURBANCES IN THE SOUTHWEST UPPER FLOW IN PLACE
ATOP THE SRN PLAINS WILL SPARK OFF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ON
WED...THU...AND AGAIN ON FRI. EACH ROUND OF RAIN WILL GRADUALLY
SHIFT EAST...WITH RAIN CHANCES ACROSS MUCH OF THE STATE BY FRI
AFTERNOON.

TEMPERATURES DURING THE SHORT TERM ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN ABOVE
NORMAL.

&&

.LONG TERM...SUNDAY THROUGH SUNDAY

MEDIUM RANGE MODELS ARE CONTINUING TO BE IN DECENT ENOUGH
AGREEMENT THAT IT IS INCREASINGLY DIFFICULT TO SETTLE ON ONE
SOLUTION VERSUS ANOTHER. FEEL THE BEST COURSE OF ACTION IS TO
SIMPLY BLEND FORECAST SOLUTIONS.

PERIOD STARTS OFF ONCE AGAIN WITH UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE AND
ITS ASSOCIATED TROUGH OVER THE DESERT SOUTHWEST. A CUT OFF UPPER
LOW OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST WILL CONTINUE TO MEANDER THROUGH THE
WEEKEND BEFORE FINALLY LIFTING OUT. MEANWHILE...SOUTHWEST SYSTEM
WILL LIFT WITH ASSOCIATED SURFACE REFLECTION MOVING INTO THE
NORTHERN PLAINS BY MONDAY MORNING.

RESULTANT PATTERN WILL PROVIDE SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT THAT WILL TAP
INTO PACIFIC MOISTURE. SEVERAL ROUNDS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
WILL PERSIST UNTIL THE ASSOCIATED FRONT CLEARS THE AREA DURING THE
DAY MONDAY. THERE ARE ENOUGH TIMING DIFFERENCES BETWEEN THESE WAVES
THAT MORE OF A BROAD BRUSH APPROACH WILL BE USED. TEMPERATURES LOOK
TO AVERAGE A FEW DEGREES ABOUT NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BATESVILLE AR     83  60  82  63 /  10  10  10  10
CAMDEN AR         84  61  83  64 /  10  10  10  10
HARRISON AR       80  61  78  60 /  20  20  30  10
HOT SPRINGS AR    82  63  82  64 /  10  20  10  10
LITTLE ROCK   AR  84  61  83  64 /  10  10  10  10
MONTICELLO AR     84  61  83  65 /  10  10  10  10
MOUNT IDA AR      81  61  79  64 /  10  20  20  10
MOUNTAIN HOME AR  82  59  79  61 /  10  10  20  10
NEWPORT AR        84  61  83  63 /  10   0  10  10
PINE BLUFF AR     84  61  83  64 /  10  10  10  10
RUSSELLVILLE AR   83  61  81  62 /  10  20  20  10
SEARCY AR         83  59  82  62 /  10  10  10  10
STUTTGART AR      83  61  82  64 /  10  10  10  10
&&

.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...64 / LONG TERM...56







000
FXUS64 KLZK 050907
AFDLZK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
407 AM CDT TUE MAY 5 2015

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY

SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW CONTINUES ACROSS ARKANSAS THIS MORNING AS
THE STATE LIES BETWEEN SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OFF THE COAST OF THE
CAROLINAS AND WEAK LOW PRESSURE IN FAR WESTERN TEXAS. THE SFC LOW
IN TEXAS WILL LIFT NORTH TODAY IN RESPONSE TO AN UPPER WAVE MOVING
FROM THE SOUTHERN ARIZONA/NEW MEXICO BORDER THIS MORNING TO THE
COLORADO HIGH PLAINS BY THIS EVENING. ASCENT AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE
WILL YIELD SOME ISOLATED TO SCATTERED CONVECTION THIS AFTERNOON
ALONG THE OKLAHOMA/ARKANSAS BORDER...WITH MORE WIDESPREAD
CONVECTION CLOSER TO THE DISTURBANCE BACK IN CENTRAL AND WESTERN
OKLAHOMA. HAVE SOME 20-30 PERCENT RAIN CHANCES IN WESTERN ARKANSAS
TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS. THE SHORTWAVE AXIS WILL ROTATE THROUGH NE
OKLAHOMA DURING THE DAY WEDNESDAY...TRIGGERING MORE SCATTERED
CONVECTION ALONG THE OK/AR BORDER ONCE AGAIN. A FEW STRAY SHOWERS
CANNOT BE RULED OUT ACROSS CENTRAL OR EVEN EASTERN ARKANSAS TODAY
OR TOMORROW...GIVEN THERE ARE A FEW ON RADAR NORTH OF THE LITTLE
ROCK AREA THIS MORNING. HOWEVER FEEL THAT THE MAIN FOCUS FOR ANY
RAINFALL WILL BE IN WESTERN ARKANSAS.

BY LATE WED NIGHT THIS LEAD WAVE WILL HAVE SHIFTED TO THE NRN
PLAINS...WITH A CLOSED LOW DROPPING SOUTH THROUGH CALIFORNIA. THIS
WESTERN TROUGH/EASTERN RIDGE PATTERN WILL THEN HOLD THROUGH THE
END OF THE WEEK. DISTURBANCES IN THE SOUTHWEST UPPER FLOW IN PLACE
ATOP THE SRN PLAINS WILL SPARK OFF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ON
WED...THU...AND AGAIN ON FRI. EACH ROUND OF RAIN WILL GRADUALLY
SHIFT EAST...WITH RAIN CHANCES ACROSS MUCH OF THE STATE BY FRI
AFTERNOON.

TEMPERATURES DURING THE SHORT TERM ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN ABOVE
NORMAL.

&&

.LONG TERM...SUNDAY THROUGH SUNDAY

MEDIUM RANGE MODELS ARE CONTINUING TO BE IN DECENT ENOUGH
AGREEMENT THAT IT IS INCREASINGLY DIFFICULT TO SETTLE ON ONE
SOLUTION VERSUS ANOTHER. FEEL THE BEST COURSE OF ACTION IS TO
SIMPLY BLEND FORECAST SOLUTIONS.

PERIOD STARTS OFF ONCE AGAIN WITH UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE AND
ITS ASSOCIATED TROUGH OVER THE DESERT SOUTHWEST. A CUT OFF UPPER
LOW OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST WILL CONTINUE TO MEANDER THROUGH THE
WEEKEND BEFORE FINALLY LIFTING OUT. MEANWHILE...SOUTHWEST SYSTEM
WILL LIFT WITH ASSOCIATED SURFACE REFLECTION MOVING INTO THE
NORTHERN PLAINS BY MONDAY MORNING.

RESULTANT PATTERN WILL PROVIDE SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT THAT WILL TAP
INTO PACIFIC MOISTURE. SEVERAL ROUNDS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
WILL PERSIST UNTIL THE ASSOCIATED FRONT CLEARS THE AREA DURING THE
DAY MONDAY. THERE ARE ENOUGH TIMING DIFFERENCES BETWEEN THESE WAVES
THAT MORE OF A BROAD BRUSH APPROACH WILL BE USED. TEMPERATURES LOOK
TO AVERAGE A FEW DEGREES ABOUT NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BATESVILLE AR     83  60  82  63 /  10  10  10  10
CAMDEN AR         84  61  83  64 /  10  10  10  10
HARRISON AR       80  61  78  60 /  20  20  30  10
HOT SPRINGS AR    82  63  82  64 /  10  20  10  10
LITTLE ROCK   AR  84  61  83  64 /  10  10  10  10
MONTICELLO AR     84  61  83  65 /  10  10  10  10
MOUNT IDA AR      81  61  79  64 /  10  20  20  10
MOUNTAIN HOME AR  82  59  79  61 /  10  10  20  10
NEWPORT AR        84  61  83  63 /  10   0  10  10
PINE BLUFF AR     84  61  83  64 /  10  10  10  10
RUSSELLVILLE AR   83  61  81  62 /  10  20  20  10
SEARCY AR         83  59  82  62 /  10  10  10  10
STUTTGART AR      83  61  82  64 /  10  10  10  10
&&

.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...64 / LONG TERM...56







000
FXUS64 KLZK 050907
AFDLZK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
407 AM CDT TUE MAY 5 2015

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY

SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW CONTINUES ACROSS ARKANSAS THIS MORNING AS
THE STATE LIES BETWEEN SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OFF THE COAST OF THE
CAROLINAS AND WEAK LOW PRESSURE IN FAR WESTERN TEXAS. THE SFC LOW
IN TEXAS WILL LIFT NORTH TODAY IN RESPONSE TO AN UPPER WAVE MOVING
FROM THE SOUTHERN ARIZONA/NEW MEXICO BORDER THIS MORNING TO THE
COLORADO HIGH PLAINS BY THIS EVENING. ASCENT AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE
WILL YIELD SOME ISOLATED TO SCATTERED CONVECTION THIS AFTERNOON
ALONG THE OKLAHOMA/ARKANSAS BORDER...WITH MORE WIDESPREAD
CONVECTION CLOSER TO THE DISTURBANCE BACK IN CENTRAL AND WESTERN
OKLAHOMA. HAVE SOME 20-30 PERCENT RAIN CHANCES IN WESTERN ARKANSAS
TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS. THE SHORTWAVE AXIS WILL ROTATE THROUGH NE
OKLAHOMA DURING THE DAY WEDNESDAY...TRIGGERING MORE SCATTERED
CONVECTION ALONG THE OK/AR BORDER ONCE AGAIN. A FEW STRAY SHOWERS
CANNOT BE RULED OUT ACROSS CENTRAL OR EVEN EASTERN ARKANSAS TODAY
OR TOMORROW...GIVEN THERE ARE A FEW ON RADAR NORTH OF THE LITTLE
ROCK AREA THIS MORNING. HOWEVER FEEL THAT THE MAIN FOCUS FOR ANY
RAINFALL WILL BE IN WESTERN ARKANSAS.

BY LATE WED NIGHT THIS LEAD WAVE WILL HAVE SHIFTED TO THE NRN
PLAINS...WITH A CLOSED LOW DROPPING SOUTH THROUGH CALIFORNIA. THIS
WESTERN TROUGH/EASTERN RIDGE PATTERN WILL THEN HOLD THROUGH THE
END OF THE WEEK. DISTURBANCES IN THE SOUTHWEST UPPER FLOW IN PLACE
ATOP THE SRN PLAINS WILL SPARK OFF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ON
WED...THU...AND AGAIN ON FRI. EACH ROUND OF RAIN WILL GRADUALLY
SHIFT EAST...WITH RAIN CHANCES ACROSS MUCH OF THE STATE BY FRI
AFTERNOON.

TEMPERATURES DURING THE SHORT TERM ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN ABOVE
NORMAL.

&&

.LONG TERM...SUNDAY THROUGH SUNDAY

MEDIUM RANGE MODELS ARE CONTINUING TO BE IN DECENT ENOUGH
AGREEMENT THAT IT IS INCREASINGLY DIFFICULT TO SETTLE ON ONE
SOLUTION VERSUS ANOTHER. FEEL THE BEST COURSE OF ACTION IS TO
SIMPLY BLEND FORECAST SOLUTIONS.

PERIOD STARTS OFF ONCE AGAIN WITH UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE AND
ITS ASSOCIATED TROUGH OVER THE DESERT SOUTHWEST. A CUT OFF UPPER
LOW OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST WILL CONTINUE TO MEANDER THROUGH THE
WEEKEND BEFORE FINALLY LIFTING OUT. MEANWHILE...SOUTHWEST SYSTEM
WILL LIFT WITH ASSOCIATED SURFACE REFLECTION MOVING INTO THE
NORTHERN PLAINS BY MONDAY MORNING.

RESULTANT PATTERN WILL PROVIDE SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT THAT WILL TAP
INTO PACIFIC MOISTURE. SEVERAL ROUNDS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
WILL PERSIST UNTIL THE ASSOCIATED FRONT CLEARS THE AREA DURING THE
DAY MONDAY. THERE ARE ENOUGH TIMING DIFFERENCES BETWEEN THESE WAVES
THAT MORE OF A BROAD BRUSH APPROACH WILL BE USED. TEMPERATURES LOOK
TO AVERAGE A FEW DEGREES ABOUT NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BATESVILLE AR     83  60  82  63 /  10  10  10  10
CAMDEN AR         84  61  83  64 /  10  10  10  10
HARRISON AR       80  61  78  60 /  20  20  30  10
HOT SPRINGS AR    82  63  82  64 /  10  20  10  10
LITTLE ROCK   AR  84  61  83  64 /  10  10  10  10
MONTICELLO AR     84  61  83  65 /  10  10  10  10
MOUNT IDA AR      81  61  79  64 /  10  20  20  10
MOUNTAIN HOME AR  82  59  79  61 /  10  10  20  10
NEWPORT AR        84  61  83  63 /  10   0  10  10
PINE BLUFF AR     84  61  83  64 /  10  10  10  10
RUSSELLVILLE AR   83  61  81  62 /  10  20  20  10
SEARCY AR         83  59  82  62 /  10  10  10  10
STUTTGART AR      83  61  82  64 /  10  10  10  10
&&

.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...64 / LONG TERM...56







000
FXUS64 KLZK 050907
AFDLZK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
407 AM CDT TUE MAY 5 2015

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY

SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW CONTINUES ACROSS ARKANSAS THIS MORNING AS
THE STATE LIES BETWEEN SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OFF THE COAST OF THE
CAROLINAS AND WEAK LOW PRESSURE IN FAR WESTERN TEXAS. THE SFC LOW
IN TEXAS WILL LIFT NORTH TODAY IN RESPONSE TO AN UPPER WAVE MOVING
FROM THE SOUTHERN ARIZONA/NEW MEXICO BORDER THIS MORNING TO THE
COLORADO HIGH PLAINS BY THIS EVENING. ASCENT AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE
WILL YIELD SOME ISOLATED TO SCATTERED CONVECTION THIS AFTERNOON
ALONG THE OKLAHOMA/ARKANSAS BORDER...WITH MORE WIDESPREAD
CONVECTION CLOSER TO THE DISTURBANCE BACK IN CENTRAL AND WESTERN
OKLAHOMA. HAVE SOME 20-30 PERCENT RAIN CHANCES IN WESTERN ARKANSAS
TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS. THE SHORTWAVE AXIS WILL ROTATE THROUGH NE
OKLAHOMA DURING THE DAY WEDNESDAY...TRIGGERING MORE SCATTERED
CONVECTION ALONG THE OK/AR BORDER ONCE AGAIN. A FEW STRAY SHOWERS
CANNOT BE RULED OUT ACROSS CENTRAL OR EVEN EASTERN ARKANSAS TODAY
OR TOMORROW...GIVEN THERE ARE A FEW ON RADAR NORTH OF THE LITTLE
ROCK AREA THIS MORNING. HOWEVER FEEL THAT THE MAIN FOCUS FOR ANY
RAINFALL WILL BE IN WESTERN ARKANSAS.

BY LATE WED NIGHT THIS LEAD WAVE WILL HAVE SHIFTED TO THE NRN
PLAINS...WITH A CLOSED LOW DROPPING SOUTH THROUGH CALIFORNIA. THIS
WESTERN TROUGH/EASTERN RIDGE PATTERN WILL THEN HOLD THROUGH THE
END OF THE WEEK. DISTURBANCES IN THE SOUTHWEST UPPER FLOW IN PLACE
ATOP THE SRN PLAINS WILL SPARK OFF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ON
WED...THU...AND AGAIN ON FRI. EACH ROUND OF RAIN WILL GRADUALLY
SHIFT EAST...WITH RAIN CHANCES ACROSS MUCH OF THE STATE BY FRI
AFTERNOON.

TEMPERATURES DURING THE SHORT TERM ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN ABOVE
NORMAL.

&&

.LONG TERM...SUNDAY THROUGH SUNDAY

MEDIUM RANGE MODELS ARE CONTINUING TO BE IN DECENT ENOUGH
AGREEMENT THAT IT IS INCREASINGLY DIFFICULT TO SETTLE ON ONE
SOLUTION VERSUS ANOTHER. FEEL THE BEST COURSE OF ACTION IS TO
SIMPLY BLEND FORECAST SOLUTIONS.

PERIOD STARTS OFF ONCE AGAIN WITH UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE AND
ITS ASSOCIATED TROUGH OVER THE DESERT SOUTHWEST. A CUT OFF UPPER
LOW OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST WILL CONTINUE TO MEANDER THROUGH THE
WEEKEND BEFORE FINALLY LIFTING OUT. MEANWHILE...SOUTHWEST SYSTEM
WILL LIFT WITH ASSOCIATED SURFACE REFLECTION MOVING INTO THE
NORTHERN PLAINS BY MONDAY MORNING.

RESULTANT PATTERN WILL PROVIDE SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT THAT WILL TAP
INTO PACIFIC MOISTURE. SEVERAL ROUNDS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
WILL PERSIST UNTIL THE ASSOCIATED FRONT CLEARS THE AREA DURING THE
DAY MONDAY. THERE ARE ENOUGH TIMING DIFFERENCES BETWEEN THESE WAVES
THAT MORE OF A BROAD BRUSH APPROACH WILL BE USED. TEMPERATURES LOOK
TO AVERAGE A FEW DEGREES ABOUT NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BATESVILLE AR     83  60  82  63 /  10  10  10  10
CAMDEN AR         84  61  83  64 /  10  10  10  10
HARRISON AR       80  61  78  60 /  20  20  30  10
HOT SPRINGS AR    82  63  82  64 /  10  20  10  10
LITTLE ROCK   AR  84  61  83  64 /  10  10  10  10
MONTICELLO AR     84  61  83  65 /  10  10  10  10
MOUNT IDA AR      81  61  79  64 /  10  20  20  10
MOUNTAIN HOME AR  82  59  79  61 /  10  10  20  10
NEWPORT AR        84  61  83  63 /  10   0  10  10
PINE BLUFF AR     84  61  83  64 /  10  10  10  10
RUSSELLVILLE AR   83  61  81  62 /  10  20  20  10
SEARCY AR         83  59  82  62 /  10  10  10  10
STUTTGART AR      83  61  82  64 /  10  10  10  10
&&

.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...64 / LONG TERM...56







000
FXUS64 KLZK 050527
AFDLZK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
1227 AM CDT TUE MAY 5 2015

.AVIATION...
SCATTERED HIGH CLOUDS MOVING ACROSS THE STATE TONIGHT...WITH LIGHT
SOUTH/SOUTHEAST WINDS. STRATUS POSSIBLE ACROSS THE WESTERN
SITES...AND HAVE SCT CLOUD GROUP TO SHOW TREND. BY MID MORNING
CUMULUS FIELD AND GUSTY WINDS WILL DEVELOP.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 840 PM CDT MON MAY 4 2015/

DISCUSSION...

OVERALL FORECAST ON TRACK. THE SURFACE AND UPPER HIGH PRESSURE
RIDGES ARE OVER THE AREA...KEEPING ALL CONVECTION WEST AND NORTH OF
AR. SOME HIGH CLOUDS WILL BE SEEN FROM THE CONVECTION BLOW OFF FROM
THE CENTRAL PLAINS TONIGHT. ALSO WITH THE SOUTH WIND...MILD TEMPS
WILL BE SEEN WITH MID 50S TO LOWER 60S. SOME PATCHY FOG MAY ALSO
DEVELOP IN THE NORMALLY FOG PRONE LOCATIONS. WILL FINE TUNE A FEW
ELEMENTS BUT NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES EXPECTED WITH LATE EVENING
UPDATE. (59)

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 245 PM CDT MON MAY 4 2015/

SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT

A PERSISTENT S/SWLY WIND FLOW ACRS AR THIS AFTN RESULTED IN A NEAR
CARBON COPY OF THE CONDS ON SUN. THE COMBO OF DAYTIME HEATING AND
AMPLE LOW LVL RH ALLOWED FOR SCTD CU TO AGAIN DVLP. MID AFTN TEMPS
RANGED FM THE UPR 70S TO THE MID 80S.

LTL CHG IN THE OVERALL WX PATTERN IS ANTICIPATED OVR THE MID SOUTH
FOR THRU MUCH OF THE SHORT TERM. THE UPR LVL PATTERN WL BE DOMINATED
BY AN UPR LVL RDG AXIS SITUATED JUST TO THE E OF AR...WITH A BROAD
TROF OVR THE WRN STATES. THE RESULTING SWLY FLOW ALOFT WL CONT TO
BRING A SERIES OF UPR LVL IMPULSES NEWD THRU THE PLAINS STATES IN
THE COMING DAYS.

THE BEST RAIN CHCS ASSOCD WITH THESE FEATURES WL CONT TO BE
PRIMARILY TO THE W OF THE FA...WITH LESSER CHCS AFFECTING PARTS OF
WRN AND NRN AR. WL CONT TO KEEP POPS IN THE 20-30 PERCENT CAT FOR
THOSE PARTS OF THE FA. TIMING OF EACH UPR PIECE OF ENERGY WL RMN
PROBLEMATIC THRU THE PD.

AS A RESULT...TEMP FCST WL ALSO BE TRICKY FOR MUCH OF THE AREA...ESP
HIGH TEMPS. CONTD TO HOLD HIGHS DOWN FEW DEGREES OVR WRN LOCATIONS
FOR MAXES EACH AFTN DUE TO CLOUDS/RAIN CHCS. MEANWHILE...READING IN
THE LOWER AND EVEN SOME MID 80S WL BE COMMON OVR CNTRL AND ERN AR.

MODELS CONT TO INDC THAT THE OVERALL UPR PATTERN WL BEGIN TO
BREAKDOWN HEADING INTO THIS WEEK...WITH CONDS BCM MORE UNSETTLED
HEADING INTO THE LONG TERM.

LONG TERM...FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY

LONG TERM BEGINS WITH AN UPPER LOW OFF THE COAST OF THE CAROLINAS...
WHICH WILL EVENTUALLY WEAKEN BY THE WEEKEND. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR THE
UPPER RIDGE TO SHIFT EAST OF THE STATE WITH ARKANSAS IN SW FLOW FOR
MUCH OF THE LONG TERM. MEANWHILE...AN UPPER LOW ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST
WILL BEGIN TO PUSH EASTWARD BRINGING PRECIPITATION CHANCES TO THE
STATE. PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL REMAIN IN THE FORECAST FOR MUCH OF
THE LONG TERM WITH THE BEST RAIN CHANCES ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF OF
THE STATE. TOWARDS THE END OF THE WEEKEND...A COLD FRONT WILL
APPROACH THE STATE AND BRING ONE LAST PUSH FOR PRECIPITATION BEFORE
DRY AIR MOVES IN BEHIND THE FRONT.

MODELS ARE GENERALLY IN GOOD AGREEMENT AND DESPITE THE RAIN CHANCES
THROUGH THE LONG TERM...ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BATESVILLE AR     60  83  62  82 /  10  10  10  10
CAMDEN AR         60  84  64  84 /  10  10  10  10
HARRISON AR       61  80  60  79 /  10  40  10  20
HOT SPRINGS AR    62  82  64  82 /  10  20  10  10
LITTLE ROCK   AR  61  83  64  83 /  10  10  10  10
MONTICELLO AR     60  84  64  84 /  10  10  10  10
MOUNT IDA AR      60  80  64  81 /  20  20  10  10
MOUNTAIN HOME AR  59  80  61  81 /  10  20  10  10
NEWPORT AR        60  84  63  83 /  10  10  10  10
PINE BLUFF AR     61  83  64  83 /  10  10  10  10
RUSSELLVILLE AR   61  82  62  82 /  10  20  10  20
SEARCY AR         59  83  62  83 /  10  10  10  10
STUTTGART AR      61  83  64  83 /  10  10  10  10
&&

.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&

$$


AVIATION...56






000
FXUS64 KLZK 050527
AFDLZK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
1227 AM CDT TUE MAY 5 2015

.AVIATION...
SCATTERED HIGH CLOUDS MOVING ACROSS THE STATE TONIGHT...WITH LIGHT
SOUTH/SOUTHEAST WINDS. STRATUS POSSIBLE ACROSS THE WESTERN
SITES...AND HAVE SCT CLOUD GROUP TO SHOW TREND. BY MID MORNING
CUMULUS FIELD AND GUSTY WINDS WILL DEVELOP.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 840 PM CDT MON MAY 4 2015/

DISCUSSION...

OVERALL FORECAST ON TRACK. THE SURFACE AND UPPER HIGH PRESSURE
RIDGES ARE OVER THE AREA...KEEPING ALL CONVECTION WEST AND NORTH OF
AR. SOME HIGH CLOUDS WILL BE SEEN FROM THE CONVECTION BLOW OFF FROM
THE CENTRAL PLAINS TONIGHT. ALSO WITH THE SOUTH WIND...MILD TEMPS
WILL BE SEEN WITH MID 50S TO LOWER 60S. SOME PATCHY FOG MAY ALSO
DEVELOP IN THE NORMALLY FOG PRONE LOCATIONS. WILL FINE TUNE A FEW
ELEMENTS BUT NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES EXPECTED WITH LATE EVENING
UPDATE. (59)

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 245 PM CDT MON MAY 4 2015/

SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT

A PERSISTENT S/SWLY WIND FLOW ACRS AR THIS AFTN RESULTED IN A NEAR
CARBON COPY OF THE CONDS ON SUN. THE COMBO OF DAYTIME HEATING AND
AMPLE LOW LVL RH ALLOWED FOR SCTD CU TO AGAIN DVLP. MID AFTN TEMPS
RANGED FM THE UPR 70S TO THE MID 80S.

LTL CHG IN THE OVERALL WX PATTERN IS ANTICIPATED OVR THE MID SOUTH
FOR THRU MUCH OF THE SHORT TERM. THE UPR LVL PATTERN WL BE DOMINATED
BY AN UPR LVL RDG AXIS SITUATED JUST TO THE E OF AR...WITH A BROAD
TROF OVR THE WRN STATES. THE RESULTING SWLY FLOW ALOFT WL CONT TO
BRING A SERIES OF UPR LVL IMPULSES NEWD THRU THE PLAINS STATES IN
THE COMING DAYS.

THE BEST RAIN CHCS ASSOCD WITH THESE FEATURES WL CONT TO BE
PRIMARILY TO THE W OF THE FA...WITH LESSER CHCS AFFECTING PARTS OF
WRN AND NRN AR. WL CONT TO KEEP POPS IN THE 20-30 PERCENT CAT FOR
THOSE PARTS OF THE FA. TIMING OF EACH UPR PIECE OF ENERGY WL RMN
PROBLEMATIC THRU THE PD.

AS A RESULT...TEMP FCST WL ALSO BE TRICKY FOR MUCH OF THE AREA...ESP
HIGH TEMPS. CONTD TO HOLD HIGHS DOWN FEW DEGREES OVR WRN LOCATIONS
FOR MAXES EACH AFTN DUE TO CLOUDS/RAIN CHCS. MEANWHILE...READING IN
THE LOWER AND EVEN SOME MID 80S WL BE COMMON OVR CNTRL AND ERN AR.

MODELS CONT TO INDC THAT THE OVERALL UPR PATTERN WL BEGIN TO
BREAKDOWN HEADING INTO THIS WEEK...WITH CONDS BCM MORE UNSETTLED
HEADING INTO THE LONG TERM.

LONG TERM...FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY

LONG TERM BEGINS WITH AN UPPER LOW OFF THE COAST OF THE CAROLINAS...
WHICH WILL EVENTUALLY WEAKEN BY THE WEEKEND. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR THE
UPPER RIDGE TO SHIFT EAST OF THE STATE WITH ARKANSAS IN SW FLOW FOR
MUCH OF THE LONG TERM. MEANWHILE...AN UPPER LOW ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST
WILL BEGIN TO PUSH EASTWARD BRINGING PRECIPITATION CHANCES TO THE
STATE. PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL REMAIN IN THE FORECAST FOR MUCH OF
THE LONG TERM WITH THE BEST RAIN CHANCES ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF OF
THE STATE. TOWARDS THE END OF THE WEEKEND...A COLD FRONT WILL
APPROACH THE STATE AND BRING ONE LAST PUSH FOR PRECIPITATION BEFORE
DRY AIR MOVES IN BEHIND THE FRONT.

MODELS ARE GENERALLY IN GOOD AGREEMENT AND DESPITE THE RAIN CHANCES
THROUGH THE LONG TERM...ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BATESVILLE AR     60  83  62  82 /  10  10  10  10
CAMDEN AR         60  84  64  84 /  10  10  10  10
HARRISON AR       61  80  60  79 /  10  40  10  20
HOT SPRINGS AR    62  82  64  82 /  10  20  10  10
LITTLE ROCK   AR  61  83  64  83 /  10  10  10  10
MONTICELLO AR     60  84  64  84 /  10  10  10  10
MOUNT IDA AR      60  80  64  81 /  20  20  10  10
MOUNTAIN HOME AR  59  80  61  81 /  10  20  10  10
NEWPORT AR        60  84  63  83 /  10  10  10  10
PINE BLUFF AR     61  83  64  83 /  10  10  10  10
RUSSELLVILLE AR   61  82  62  82 /  10  20  10  20
SEARCY AR         59  83  62  83 /  10  10  10  10
STUTTGART AR      61  83  64  83 /  10  10  10  10
&&

.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&

$$


AVIATION...56






000
FXUS64 KLZK 050527
AFDLZK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
1227 AM CDT TUE MAY 5 2015

.AVIATION...
SCATTERED HIGH CLOUDS MOVING ACROSS THE STATE TONIGHT...WITH LIGHT
SOUTH/SOUTHEAST WINDS. STRATUS POSSIBLE ACROSS THE WESTERN
SITES...AND HAVE SCT CLOUD GROUP TO SHOW TREND. BY MID MORNING
CUMULUS FIELD AND GUSTY WINDS WILL DEVELOP.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 840 PM CDT MON MAY 4 2015/

DISCUSSION...

OVERALL FORECAST ON TRACK. THE SURFACE AND UPPER HIGH PRESSURE
RIDGES ARE OVER THE AREA...KEEPING ALL CONVECTION WEST AND NORTH OF
AR. SOME HIGH CLOUDS WILL BE SEEN FROM THE CONVECTION BLOW OFF FROM
THE CENTRAL PLAINS TONIGHT. ALSO WITH THE SOUTH WIND...MILD TEMPS
WILL BE SEEN WITH MID 50S TO LOWER 60S. SOME PATCHY FOG MAY ALSO
DEVELOP IN THE NORMALLY FOG PRONE LOCATIONS. WILL FINE TUNE A FEW
ELEMENTS BUT NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES EXPECTED WITH LATE EVENING
UPDATE. (59)

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 245 PM CDT MON MAY 4 2015/

SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT

A PERSISTENT S/SWLY WIND FLOW ACRS AR THIS AFTN RESULTED IN A NEAR
CARBON COPY OF THE CONDS ON SUN. THE COMBO OF DAYTIME HEATING AND
AMPLE LOW LVL RH ALLOWED FOR SCTD CU TO AGAIN DVLP. MID AFTN TEMPS
RANGED FM THE UPR 70S TO THE MID 80S.

LTL CHG IN THE OVERALL WX PATTERN IS ANTICIPATED OVR THE MID SOUTH
FOR THRU MUCH OF THE SHORT TERM. THE UPR LVL PATTERN WL BE DOMINATED
BY AN UPR LVL RDG AXIS SITUATED JUST TO THE E OF AR...WITH A BROAD
TROF OVR THE WRN STATES. THE RESULTING SWLY FLOW ALOFT WL CONT TO
BRING A SERIES OF UPR LVL IMPULSES NEWD THRU THE PLAINS STATES IN
THE COMING DAYS.

THE BEST RAIN CHCS ASSOCD WITH THESE FEATURES WL CONT TO BE
PRIMARILY TO THE W OF THE FA...WITH LESSER CHCS AFFECTING PARTS OF
WRN AND NRN AR. WL CONT TO KEEP POPS IN THE 20-30 PERCENT CAT FOR
THOSE PARTS OF THE FA. TIMING OF EACH UPR PIECE OF ENERGY WL RMN
PROBLEMATIC THRU THE PD.

AS A RESULT...TEMP FCST WL ALSO BE TRICKY FOR MUCH OF THE AREA...ESP
HIGH TEMPS. CONTD TO HOLD HIGHS DOWN FEW DEGREES OVR WRN LOCATIONS
FOR MAXES EACH AFTN DUE TO CLOUDS/RAIN CHCS. MEANWHILE...READING IN
THE LOWER AND EVEN SOME MID 80S WL BE COMMON OVR CNTRL AND ERN AR.

MODELS CONT TO INDC THAT THE OVERALL UPR PATTERN WL BEGIN TO
BREAKDOWN HEADING INTO THIS WEEK...WITH CONDS BCM MORE UNSETTLED
HEADING INTO THE LONG TERM.

LONG TERM...FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY

LONG TERM BEGINS WITH AN UPPER LOW OFF THE COAST OF THE CAROLINAS...
WHICH WILL EVENTUALLY WEAKEN BY THE WEEKEND. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR THE
UPPER RIDGE TO SHIFT EAST OF THE STATE WITH ARKANSAS IN SW FLOW FOR
MUCH OF THE LONG TERM. MEANWHILE...AN UPPER LOW ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST
WILL BEGIN TO PUSH EASTWARD BRINGING PRECIPITATION CHANCES TO THE
STATE. PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL REMAIN IN THE FORECAST FOR MUCH OF
THE LONG TERM WITH THE BEST RAIN CHANCES ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF OF
THE STATE. TOWARDS THE END OF THE WEEKEND...A COLD FRONT WILL
APPROACH THE STATE AND BRING ONE LAST PUSH FOR PRECIPITATION BEFORE
DRY AIR MOVES IN BEHIND THE FRONT.

MODELS ARE GENERALLY IN GOOD AGREEMENT AND DESPITE THE RAIN CHANCES
THROUGH THE LONG TERM...ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BATESVILLE AR     60  83  62  82 /  10  10  10  10
CAMDEN AR         60  84  64  84 /  10  10  10  10
HARRISON AR       61  80  60  79 /  10  40  10  20
HOT SPRINGS AR    62  82  64  82 /  10  20  10  10
LITTLE ROCK   AR  61  83  64  83 /  10  10  10  10
MONTICELLO AR     60  84  64  84 /  10  10  10  10
MOUNT IDA AR      60  80  64  81 /  20  20  10  10
MOUNTAIN HOME AR  59  80  61  81 /  10  20  10  10
NEWPORT AR        60  84  63  83 /  10  10  10  10
PINE BLUFF AR     61  83  64  83 /  10  10  10  10
RUSSELLVILLE AR   61  82  62  82 /  10  20  10  20
SEARCY AR         59  83  62  83 /  10  10  10  10
STUTTGART AR      61  83  64  83 /  10  10  10  10
&&

.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&

$$


AVIATION...56







000
FXUS64 KLZK 050141 AAB
AFDLZK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
840 PM CDT MON MAY 4 2015

.DISCUSSION...

OVERALL FORECAST ON TRACK. THE SURFACE AND UPPER HIGH PRESSURE
RIDGES ARE OVER THE AREA...KEEPING ALL CONVECTION WEST AND NORTH OF
AR. SOME HIGH CLOUDS WILL BE SEEN FROM THE CONVECTION BLOW OFF FROM
THE CENTRAL PLAINS TONIGHT. ALSO WITH THE SOUTH WIND...MILD TEMPS
WILL BE SEEN WITH MID 50S TO LOWER 60S. SOME PATCHY FOG MAY ALSO
DEVELOP IN THE NORMALLY FOG PRONE LOCATIONS. WILL FINE TUNE A FEW
ELEMENTS BUT NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES EXPECTED WITH LATE EVENING
UPDATE. (59)

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 634 PM CDT MON MAY 4 2015/

.AVIATION...

SCATTERED HIGH CLOUDS MOVING ACROSS THE STATE TONIGHT...WITH LIGHT
SOUTH/SOUTHEAST WINDS. STRATUS MAY DEVELOP ACROSS THE WESTERN
SITES...AND HAVE SCT CLOUD GROUP TO SHOW TREND. BY MID
MORNING...CU WILL DEVELOP ALONG WITH GUSTY WINDS.
&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 245 PM CDT MON MAY 4 2015/

SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT

A PERSISTENT S/SWLY WIND FLOW ACRS AR THIS AFTN RESULTED IN A NEAR
CARBON COPY OF THE CONDS ON SUN. THE COMBO OF DAYTIME HEATING AND
AMPLE LOW LVL RH ALLOWED FOR SCTD CU TO AGAIN DVLP. MID AFTN TEMPS
RANGED FM THE UPR 70S TO THE MID 80S.

LTL CHG IN THE OVERALL WX PATTERN IS ANTICIPATED OVR THE MID SOUTH
FOR THRU MUCH OF THE SHORT TERM. THE UPR LVL PATTERN WL BE DOMINATED
BY AN UPR LVL RDG AXIS SITUATED JUST TO THE E OF AR...WITH A BROAD
TROF OVR THE WRN STATES. THE RESULTING SWLY FLOW ALOFT WL CONT TO
BRING A SERIES OF UPR LVL IMPULSES NEWD THRU THE PLAINS STATES IN
THE COMING DAYS.

THE BEST RAIN CHCS ASSOCD WITH THESE FEATURES WL CONT TO BE
PRIMARILY TO THE W OF THE FA...WITH LESSER CHCS AFFECTING PARTS OF
WRN AND NRN AR. WL CONT TO KEEP POPS IN THE 20-30 PERCENT CAT FOR
THOSE PARTS OF THE FA. TIMING OF EACH UPR PIECE OF ENERGY WL RMN
PROBLEMATIC THRU THE PD.

AS A RESULT...TEMP FCST WL ALSO BE TRICKY FOR MUCH OF THE AREA...ESP
HIGH TEMPS. CONTD TO HOLD HIGHS DOWN FEW DEGREES OVR WRN LOCATIONS
FOR MAXES EACH AFTN DUE TO CLOUDS/RAIN CHCS. MEANWHILE...READING IN
THE LOWER AND EVEN SOME MID 80S WL BE COMMON OVR CNTRL AND ERN AR.

MODELS CONT TO INDC THAT THE OVERALL UPR PATTERN WL BEGIN TO
BREAKDOWN HEADING INTO THIS WEEK...WITH CONDS BCM MORE UNSETTLED
HEADING INTO THE LONG TERM.

LONG TERM...FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY

LONG TERM BEGINS WITH AN UPPER LOW OFF THE COAST OF THE CAROLINAS...
WHICH WILL EVENTUALLY WEAKEN BY THE WEEKEND. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR THE
UPPER RIDGE TO SHIFT EAST OF THE STATE WITH ARKANSAS IN SW FLOW FOR
MUCH OF THE LONG TERM. MEANWHILE...AN UPPER LOW ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST
WILL BEGIN TO PUSH EASTWARD BRINGING PRECIPITATION CHANCES TO THE
STATE. PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL REMAIN IN THE FORECAST FOR MUCH OF
THE LONG TERM WITH THE BEST RAIN CHANCES ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF OF
THE STATE. TOWARDS THE END OF THE WEEKEND...A COLD FRONT WILL
APPROACH THE STATE AND BRING ONE LAST PUSH FOR PRECIPITATION BEFORE
DRY AIR MOVES IN BEHIND THE FRONT.

MODELS ARE GENERALLY IN GOOD AGREEMENT AND DESPITE THE RAIN CHANCES
THROUGH THE LONG TERM...ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST.
&&

.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&

$$

AVIATION...58








000
FXUS64 KLZK 050141 AAB
AFDLZK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
840 PM CDT MON MAY 4 2015

.DISCUSSION...

OVERALL FORECAST ON TRACK. THE SURFACE AND UPPER HIGH PRESSURE
RIDGES ARE OVER THE AREA...KEEPING ALL CONVECTION WEST AND NORTH OF
AR. SOME HIGH CLOUDS WILL BE SEEN FROM THE CONVECTION BLOW OFF FROM
THE CENTRAL PLAINS TONIGHT. ALSO WITH THE SOUTH WIND...MILD TEMPS
WILL BE SEEN WITH MID 50S TO LOWER 60S. SOME PATCHY FOG MAY ALSO
DEVELOP IN THE NORMALLY FOG PRONE LOCATIONS. WILL FINE TUNE A FEW
ELEMENTS BUT NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES EXPECTED WITH LATE EVENING
UPDATE. (59)

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 634 PM CDT MON MAY 4 2015/

.AVIATION...

SCATTERED HIGH CLOUDS MOVING ACROSS THE STATE TONIGHT...WITH LIGHT
SOUTH/SOUTHEAST WINDS. STRATUS MAY DEVELOP ACROSS THE WESTERN
SITES...AND HAVE SCT CLOUD GROUP TO SHOW TREND. BY MID
MORNING...CU WILL DEVELOP ALONG WITH GUSTY WINDS.
&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 245 PM CDT MON MAY 4 2015/

SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT

A PERSISTENT S/SWLY WIND FLOW ACRS AR THIS AFTN RESULTED IN A NEAR
CARBON COPY OF THE CONDS ON SUN. THE COMBO OF DAYTIME HEATING AND
AMPLE LOW LVL RH ALLOWED FOR SCTD CU TO AGAIN DVLP. MID AFTN TEMPS
RANGED FM THE UPR 70S TO THE MID 80S.

LTL CHG IN THE OVERALL WX PATTERN IS ANTICIPATED OVR THE MID SOUTH
FOR THRU MUCH OF THE SHORT TERM. THE UPR LVL PATTERN WL BE DOMINATED
BY AN UPR LVL RDG AXIS SITUATED JUST TO THE E OF AR...WITH A BROAD
TROF OVR THE WRN STATES. THE RESULTING SWLY FLOW ALOFT WL CONT TO
BRING A SERIES OF UPR LVL IMPULSES NEWD THRU THE PLAINS STATES IN
THE COMING DAYS.

THE BEST RAIN CHCS ASSOCD WITH THESE FEATURES WL CONT TO BE
PRIMARILY TO THE W OF THE FA...WITH LESSER CHCS AFFECTING PARTS OF
WRN AND NRN AR. WL CONT TO KEEP POPS IN THE 20-30 PERCENT CAT FOR
THOSE PARTS OF THE FA. TIMING OF EACH UPR PIECE OF ENERGY WL RMN
PROBLEMATIC THRU THE PD.

AS A RESULT...TEMP FCST WL ALSO BE TRICKY FOR MUCH OF THE AREA...ESP
HIGH TEMPS. CONTD TO HOLD HIGHS DOWN FEW DEGREES OVR WRN LOCATIONS
FOR MAXES EACH AFTN DUE TO CLOUDS/RAIN CHCS. MEANWHILE...READING IN
THE LOWER AND EVEN SOME MID 80S WL BE COMMON OVR CNTRL AND ERN AR.

MODELS CONT TO INDC THAT THE OVERALL UPR PATTERN WL BEGIN TO
BREAKDOWN HEADING INTO THIS WEEK...WITH CONDS BCM MORE UNSETTLED
HEADING INTO THE LONG TERM.

LONG TERM...FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY

LONG TERM BEGINS WITH AN UPPER LOW OFF THE COAST OF THE CAROLINAS...
WHICH WILL EVENTUALLY WEAKEN BY THE WEEKEND. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR THE
UPPER RIDGE TO SHIFT EAST OF THE STATE WITH ARKANSAS IN SW FLOW FOR
MUCH OF THE LONG TERM. MEANWHILE...AN UPPER LOW ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST
WILL BEGIN TO PUSH EASTWARD BRINGING PRECIPITATION CHANCES TO THE
STATE. PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL REMAIN IN THE FORECAST FOR MUCH OF
THE LONG TERM WITH THE BEST RAIN CHANCES ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF OF
THE STATE. TOWARDS THE END OF THE WEEKEND...A COLD FRONT WILL
APPROACH THE STATE AND BRING ONE LAST PUSH FOR PRECIPITATION BEFORE
DRY AIR MOVES IN BEHIND THE FRONT.

MODELS ARE GENERALLY IN GOOD AGREEMENT AND DESPITE THE RAIN CHANCES
THROUGH THE LONG TERM...ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST.
&&

.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&

$$

AVIATION...58








000
FXUS64 KLZK 050141 AAB
AFDLZK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
840 PM CDT MON MAY 4 2015

.DISCUSSION...

OVERALL FORECAST ON TRACK. THE SURFACE AND UPPER HIGH PRESSURE
RIDGES ARE OVER THE AREA...KEEPING ALL CONVECTION WEST AND NORTH OF
AR. SOME HIGH CLOUDS WILL BE SEEN FROM THE CONVECTION BLOW OFF FROM
THE CENTRAL PLAINS TONIGHT. ALSO WITH THE SOUTH WIND...MILD TEMPS
WILL BE SEEN WITH MID 50S TO LOWER 60S. SOME PATCHY FOG MAY ALSO
DEVELOP IN THE NORMALLY FOG PRONE LOCATIONS. WILL FINE TUNE A FEW
ELEMENTS BUT NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES EXPECTED WITH LATE EVENING
UPDATE. (59)

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 634 PM CDT MON MAY 4 2015/

.AVIATION...

SCATTERED HIGH CLOUDS MOVING ACROSS THE STATE TONIGHT...WITH LIGHT
SOUTH/SOUTHEAST WINDS. STRATUS MAY DEVELOP ACROSS THE WESTERN
SITES...AND HAVE SCT CLOUD GROUP TO SHOW TREND. BY MID
MORNING...CU WILL DEVELOP ALONG WITH GUSTY WINDS.
&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 245 PM CDT MON MAY 4 2015/

SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT

A PERSISTENT S/SWLY WIND FLOW ACRS AR THIS AFTN RESULTED IN A NEAR
CARBON COPY OF THE CONDS ON SUN. THE COMBO OF DAYTIME HEATING AND
AMPLE LOW LVL RH ALLOWED FOR SCTD CU TO AGAIN DVLP. MID AFTN TEMPS
RANGED FM THE UPR 70S TO THE MID 80S.

LTL CHG IN THE OVERALL WX PATTERN IS ANTICIPATED OVR THE MID SOUTH
FOR THRU MUCH OF THE SHORT TERM. THE UPR LVL PATTERN WL BE DOMINATED
BY AN UPR LVL RDG AXIS SITUATED JUST TO THE E OF AR...WITH A BROAD
TROF OVR THE WRN STATES. THE RESULTING SWLY FLOW ALOFT WL CONT TO
BRING A SERIES OF UPR LVL IMPULSES NEWD THRU THE PLAINS STATES IN
THE COMING DAYS.

THE BEST RAIN CHCS ASSOCD WITH THESE FEATURES WL CONT TO BE
PRIMARILY TO THE W OF THE FA...WITH LESSER CHCS AFFECTING PARTS OF
WRN AND NRN AR. WL CONT TO KEEP POPS IN THE 20-30 PERCENT CAT FOR
THOSE PARTS OF THE FA. TIMING OF EACH UPR PIECE OF ENERGY WL RMN
PROBLEMATIC THRU THE PD.

AS A RESULT...TEMP FCST WL ALSO BE TRICKY FOR MUCH OF THE AREA...ESP
HIGH TEMPS. CONTD TO HOLD HIGHS DOWN FEW DEGREES OVR WRN LOCATIONS
FOR MAXES EACH AFTN DUE TO CLOUDS/RAIN CHCS. MEANWHILE...READING IN
THE LOWER AND EVEN SOME MID 80S WL BE COMMON OVR CNTRL AND ERN AR.

MODELS CONT TO INDC THAT THE OVERALL UPR PATTERN WL BEGIN TO
BREAKDOWN HEADING INTO THIS WEEK...WITH CONDS BCM MORE UNSETTLED
HEADING INTO THE LONG TERM.

LONG TERM...FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY

LONG TERM BEGINS WITH AN UPPER LOW OFF THE COAST OF THE CAROLINAS...
WHICH WILL EVENTUALLY WEAKEN BY THE WEEKEND. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR THE
UPPER RIDGE TO SHIFT EAST OF THE STATE WITH ARKANSAS IN SW FLOW FOR
MUCH OF THE LONG TERM. MEANWHILE...AN UPPER LOW ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST
WILL BEGIN TO PUSH EASTWARD BRINGING PRECIPITATION CHANCES TO THE
STATE. PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL REMAIN IN THE FORECAST FOR MUCH OF
THE LONG TERM WITH THE BEST RAIN CHANCES ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF OF
THE STATE. TOWARDS THE END OF THE WEEKEND...A COLD FRONT WILL
APPROACH THE STATE AND BRING ONE LAST PUSH FOR PRECIPITATION BEFORE
DRY AIR MOVES IN BEHIND THE FRONT.

MODELS ARE GENERALLY IN GOOD AGREEMENT AND DESPITE THE RAIN CHANCES
THROUGH THE LONG TERM...ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST.
&&

.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&

$$

AVIATION...58









000
FXUS64 KLZK 042334 AAA
AFDLZK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
634 PM CDT MON MAY 4 2015

.AVIATION...
SCATTERED HIGH CLOUDS MOVING ACROSS THE STATE TONIGHT...WITH LIGHT
SOUTH/SOUTHEAST WINDS. STRATUS MAY DEVELOP ACROSS THE WESTERN
SITES...AND HAVE SCT CLOUD GROUP TO SHOW TREND. BY MID
MORNING...CU WILL DEVELOP ALONG WITH GUSTY WINDS.
&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 245 PM CDT MON MAY 4 2015/

SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT

A PERSISTENT S/SWLY WIND FLOW ACRS AR THIS AFTN RESULTED IN A NEAR
CARBON COPY OF THE CONDS ON SUN. THE COMBO OF DAYTIME HEATING AND
AMPLE LOW LVL RH ALLOWED FOR SCTD CU TO AGAIN DVLP. MID AFTN TEMPS
RANGED FM THE UPR 70S TO THE MID 80S.

LTL CHG IN THE OVERALL WX PATTERN IS ANTICIPATED OVR THE MID SOUTH
FOR THRU MUCH OF THE SHORT TERM. THE UPR LVL PATTERN WL BE DOMINATED
BY AN UPR LVL RDG AXIS SITUATED JUST TO THE E OF AR...WITH A BROAD
TROF OVR THE WRN STATES. THE RESULTING SWLY FLOW ALOFT WL CONT TO
BRING A SERIES OF UPR LVL IMPULSES NEWD THRU THE PLAINS STATES IN
THE COMING DAYS.

THE BEST RAIN CHCS ASSOCD WITH THESE FEATURES WL CONT TO BE
PRIMARILY TO THE W OF THE FA...WITH LESSER CHCS AFFECTING PARTS OF
WRN AND NRN AR. WL CONT TO KEEP POPS IN THE 20-30 PERCENT CAT FOR
THOSE PARTS OF THE FA. TIMING OF EACH UPR PIECE OF ENERGY WL RMN
PROBLEMATIC THRU THE PD.

AS A RESULT...TEMP FCST WL ALSO BE TRICKY FOR MUCH OF THE AREA...ESP
HIGH TEMPS. CONTD TO HOLD HIGHS DOWN FEW DEGREES OVR WRN LOCATIONS
FOR MAXES EACH AFTN DUE TO CLOUDS/RAIN CHCS. MEANWHILE...READING IN
THE LOWER AND EVEN SOME MID 80S WL BE COMMON OVR CNTRL AND ERN AR.

MODELS CONT TO INDC THAT THE OVERALL UPR PATTERN WL BEGIN TO
BREAKDOWN HEADING INTO THIS WEEK...WITH CONDS BCM MORE UNSETTLED
HEADING INTO THE LONG TERM.

LONG TERM...FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY

LONG TERM BEGINS WITH AN UPPER LOW OFF THE COAST OF THE CAROLINAS...
WHICH WILL EVENTUALLY WEAKEN BY THE WEEKEND. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR THE
UPPER RIDGE TO SHIFT EAST OF THE STATE WITH ARKANSAS IN SW FLOW FOR
MUCH OF THE LONG TERM. MEANWHILE...AN UPPER LOW ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST
WILL BEGIN TO PUSH EASTWARD BRINGING PRECIPITATION CHANCES TO THE
STATE. PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL REMAIN IN THE FORECAST FOR MUCH OF
THE LONG TERM WITH THE BEST RAIN CHANCES ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF OF
THE STATE. TOWARDS THE END OF THE WEEKEND...A COLD FRONT WILL
APPROACH THE STATE AND BRING ONE LAST PUSH FOR PRECIPITATION BEFORE
DRY AIR MOVES IN BEHIND THE FRONT.

MODELS ARE GENERALLY IN GOOD AGREEMENT AND DESPITE THE RAIN CHANCES
THROUGH THE LONG TERM...ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST.
&&

.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&

$$

AVIATION...58





000
FXUS64 KLZK 042334 AAA
AFDLZK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
634 PM CDT MON MAY 4 2015

.AVIATION...
SCATTERED HIGH CLOUDS MOVING ACROSS THE STATE TONIGHT...WITH LIGHT
SOUTH/SOUTHEAST WINDS. STRATUS MAY DEVELOP ACROSS THE WESTERN
SITES...AND HAVE SCT CLOUD GROUP TO SHOW TREND. BY MID
MORNING...CU WILL DEVELOP ALONG WITH GUSTY WINDS.
&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 245 PM CDT MON MAY 4 2015/

SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT

A PERSISTENT S/SWLY WIND FLOW ACRS AR THIS AFTN RESULTED IN A NEAR
CARBON COPY OF THE CONDS ON SUN. THE COMBO OF DAYTIME HEATING AND
AMPLE LOW LVL RH ALLOWED FOR SCTD CU TO AGAIN DVLP. MID AFTN TEMPS
RANGED FM THE UPR 70S TO THE MID 80S.

LTL CHG IN THE OVERALL WX PATTERN IS ANTICIPATED OVR THE MID SOUTH
FOR THRU MUCH OF THE SHORT TERM. THE UPR LVL PATTERN WL BE DOMINATED
BY AN UPR LVL RDG AXIS SITUATED JUST TO THE E OF AR...WITH A BROAD
TROF OVR THE WRN STATES. THE RESULTING SWLY FLOW ALOFT WL CONT TO
BRING A SERIES OF UPR LVL IMPULSES NEWD THRU THE PLAINS STATES IN
THE COMING DAYS.

THE BEST RAIN CHCS ASSOCD WITH THESE FEATURES WL CONT TO BE
PRIMARILY TO THE W OF THE FA...WITH LESSER CHCS AFFECTING PARTS OF
WRN AND NRN AR. WL CONT TO KEEP POPS IN THE 20-30 PERCENT CAT FOR
THOSE PARTS OF THE FA. TIMING OF EACH UPR PIECE OF ENERGY WL RMN
PROBLEMATIC THRU THE PD.

AS A RESULT...TEMP FCST WL ALSO BE TRICKY FOR MUCH OF THE AREA...ESP
HIGH TEMPS. CONTD TO HOLD HIGHS DOWN FEW DEGREES OVR WRN LOCATIONS
FOR MAXES EACH AFTN DUE TO CLOUDS/RAIN CHCS. MEANWHILE...READING IN
THE LOWER AND EVEN SOME MID 80S WL BE COMMON OVR CNTRL AND ERN AR.

MODELS CONT TO INDC THAT THE OVERALL UPR PATTERN WL BEGIN TO
BREAKDOWN HEADING INTO THIS WEEK...WITH CONDS BCM MORE UNSETTLED
HEADING INTO THE LONG TERM.

LONG TERM...FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY

LONG TERM BEGINS WITH AN UPPER LOW OFF THE COAST OF THE CAROLINAS...
WHICH WILL EVENTUALLY WEAKEN BY THE WEEKEND. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR THE
UPPER RIDGE TO SHIFT EAST OF THE STATE WITH ARKANSAS IN SW FLOW FOR
MUCH OF THE LONG TERM. MEANWHILE...AN UPPER LOW ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST
WILL BEGIN TO PUSH EASTWARD BRINGING PRECIPITATION CHANCES TO THE
STATE. PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL REMAIN IN THE FORECAST FOR MUCH OF
THE LONG TERM WITH THE BEST RAIN CHANCES ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF OF
THE STATE. TOWARDS THE END OF THE WEEKEND...A COLD FRONT WILL
APPROACH THE STATE AND BRING ONE LAST PUSH FOR PRECIPITATION BEFORE
DRY AIR MOVES IN BEHIND THE FRONT.

MODELS ARE GENERALLY IN GOOD AGREEMENT AND DESPITE THE RAIN CHANCES
THROUGH THE LONG TERM...ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST.
&&

.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&

$$

AVIATION...58






000
FXUS64 KLZK 042334 AAA
AFDLZK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
634 PM CDT MON MAY 4 2015

.AVIATION...
SCATTERED HIGH CLOUDS MOVING ACROSS THE STATE TONIGHT...WITH LIGHT
SOUTH/SOUTHEAST WINDS. STRATUS MAY DEVELOP ACROSS THE WESTERN
SITES...AND HAVE SCT CLOUD GROUP TO SHOW TREND. BY MID
MORNING...CU WILL DEVELOP ALONG WITH GUSTY WINDS.
&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 245 PM CDT MON MAY 4 2015/

SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT

A PERSISTENT S/SWLY WIND FLOW ACRS AR THIS AFTN RESULTED IN A NEAR
CARBON COPY OF THE CONDS ON SUN. THE COMBO OF DAYTIME HEATING AND
AMPLE LOW LVL RH ALLOWED FOR SCTD CU TO AGAIN DVLP. MID AFTN TEMPS
RANGED FM THE UPR 70S TO THE MID 80S.

LTL CHG IN THE OVERALL WX PATTERN IS ANTICIPATED OVR THE MID SOUTH
FOR THRU MUCH OF THE SHORT TERM. THE UPR LVL PATTERN WL BE DOMINATED
BY AN UPR LVL RDG AXIS SITUATED JUST TO THE E OF AR...WITH A BROAD
TROF OVR THE WRN STATES. THE RESULTING SWLY FLOW ALOFT WL CONT TO
BRING A SERIES OF UPR LVL IMPULSES NEWD THRU THE PLAINS STATES IN
THE COMING DAYS.

THE BEST RAIN CHCS ASSOCD WITH THESE FEATURES WL CONT TO BE
PRIMARILY TO THE W OF THE FA...WITH LESSER CHCS AFFECTING PARTS OF
WRN AND NRN AR. WL CONT TO KEEP POPS IN THE 20-30 PERCENT CAT FOR
THOSE PARTS OF THE FA. TIMING OF EACH UPR PIECE OF ENERGY WL RMN
PROBLEMATIC THRU THE PD.

AS A RESULT...TEMP FCST WL ALSO BE TRICKY FOR MUCH OF THE AREA...ESP
HIGH TEMPS. CONTD TO HOLD HIGHS DOWN FEW DEGREES OVR WRN LOCATIONS
FOR MAXES EACH AFTN DUE TO CLOUDS/RAIN CHCS. MEANWHILE...READING IN
THE LOWER AND EVEN SOME MID 80S WL BE COMMON OVR CNTRL AND ERN AR.

MODELS CONT TO INDC THAT THE OVERALL UPR PATTERN WL BEGIN TO
BREAKDOWN HEADING INTO THIS WEEK...WITH CONDS BCM MORE UNSETTLED
HEADING INTO THE LONG TERM.

LONG TERM...FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY

LONG TERM BEGINS WITH AN UPPER LOW OFF THE COAST OF THE CAROLINAS...
WHICH WILL EVENTUALLY WEAKEN BY THE WEEKEND. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR THE
UPPER RIDGE TO SHIFT EAST OF THE STATE WITH ARKANSAS IN SW FLOW FOR
MUCH OF THE LONG TERM. MEANWHILE...AN UPPER LOW ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST
WILL BEGIN TO PUSH EASTWARD BRINGING PRECIPITATION CHANCES TO THE
STATE. PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL REMAIN IN THE FORECAST FOR MUCH OF
THE LONG TERM WITH THE BEST RAIN CHANCES ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF OF
THE STATE. TOWARDS THE END OF THE WEEKEND...A COLD FRONT WILL
APPROACH THE STATE AND BRING ONE LAST PUSH FOR PRECIPITATION BEFORE
DRY AIR MOVES IN BEHIND THE FRONT.

MODELS ARE GENERALLY IN GOOD AGREEMENT AND DESPITE THE RAIN CHANCES
THROUGH THE LONG TERM...ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST.
&&

.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&

$$

AVIATION...58





000
FXUS64 KLZK 042334 AAA
AFDLZK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
634 PM CDT MON MAY 4 2015

.AVIATION...
SCATTERED HIGH CLOUDS MOVING ACROSS THE STATE TONIGHT...WITH LIGHT
SOUTH/SOUTHEAST WINDS. STRATUS MAY DEVELOP ACROSS THE WESTERN
SITES...AND HAVE SCT CLOUD GROUP TO SHOW TREND. BY MID
MORNING...CU WILL DEVELOP ALONG WITH GUSTY WINDS.
&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 245 PM CDT MON MAY 4 2015/

SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT

A PERSISTENT S/SWLY WIND FLOW ACRS AR THIS AFTN RESULTED IN A NEAR
CARBON COPY OF THE CONDS ON SUN. THE COMBO OF DAYTIME HEATING AND
AMPLE LOW LVL RH ALLOWED FOR SCTD CU TO AGAIN DVLP. MID AFTN TEMPS
RANGED FM THE UPR 70S TO THE MID 80S.

LTL CHG IN THE OVERALL WX PATTERN IS ANTICIPATED OVR THE MID SOUTH
FOR THRU MUCH OF THE SHORT TERM. THE UPR LVL PATTERN WL BE DOMINATED
BY AN UPR LVL RDG AXIS SITUATED JUST TO THE E OF AR...WITH A BROAD
TROF OVR THE WRN STATES. THE RESULTING SWLY FLOW ALOFT WL CONT TO
BRING A SERIES OF UPR LVL IMPULSES NEWD THRU THE PLAINS STATES IN
THE COMING DAYS.

THE BEST RAIN CHCS ASSOCD WITH THESE FEATURES WL CONT TO BE
PRIMARILY TO THE W OF THE FA...WITH LESSER CHCS AFFECTING PARTS OF
WRN AND NRN AR. WL CONT TO KEEP POPS IN THE 20-30 PERCENT CAT FOR
THOSE PARTS OF THE FA. TIMING OF EACH UPR PIECE OF ENERGY WL RMN
PROBLEMATIC THRU THE PD.

AS A RESULT...TEMP FCST WL ALSO BE TRICKY FOR MUCH OF THE AREA...ESP
HIGH TEMPS. CONTD TO HOLD HIGHS DOWN FEW DEGREES OVR WRN LOCATIONS
FOR MAXES EACH AFTN DUE TO CLOUDS/RAIN CHCS. MEANWHILE...READING IN
THE LOWER AND EVEN SOME MID 80S WL BE COMMON OVR CNTRL AND ERN AR.

MODELS CONT TO INDC THAT THE OVERALL UPR PATTERN WL BEGIN TO
BREAKDOWN HEADING INTO THIS WEEK...WITH CONDS BCM MORE UNSETTLED
HEADING INTO THE LONG TERM.

LONG TERM...FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY

LONG TERM BEGINS WITH AN UPPER LOW OFF THE COAST OF THE CAROLINAS...
WHICH WILL EVENTUALLY WEAKEN BY THE WEEKEND. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR THE
UPPER RIDGE TO SHIFT EAST OF THE STATE WITH ARKANSAS IN SW FLOW FOR
MUCH OF THE LONG TERM. MEANWHILE...AN UPPER LOW ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST
WILL BEGIN TO PUSH EASTWARD BRINGING PRECIPITATION CHANCES TO THE
STATE. PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL REMAIN IN THE FORECAST FOR MUCH OF
THE LONG TERM WITH THE BEST RAIN CHANCES ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF OF
THE STATE. TOWARDS THE END OF THE WEEKEND...A COLD FRONT WILL
APPROACH THE STATE AND BRING ONE LAST PUSH FOR PRECIPITATION BEFORE
DRY AIR MOVES IN BEHIND THE FRONT.

MODELS ARE GENERALLY IN GOOD AGREEMENT AND DESPITE THE RAIN CHANCES
THROUGH THE LONG TERM...ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST.
&&

.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&

$$

AVIATION...58






000
FXUS64 KLZK 041947
AFDLZK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
245 PM CDT MON MAY 4 2015

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT

A PERSISTENT S/SWLY WIND FLOW ACRS AR THIS AFTN RESULTED IN A NEAR
CARBON COPY OF THE CONDS ON SUN. THE COMBO OF DAYTIME HEATING AND
AMPLE LOW LVL RH ALLOWED FOR SCTD CU TO AGAIN DVLP. MID AFTN TEMPS
RANGED FM THE UPR 70S TO THE MID 80S.

LTL CHG IN THE OVERALL WX PATTERN IS ANTICIPATED OVR THE MID SOUTH
FOR THRU MUCH OF THE SHORT TERM. THE UPR LVL PATTERN WL BE DOMINATED
BY AN UPR LVL RDG AXIS SITUATED JUST TO THE E OF AR...WITH A BROAD
TROF OVR THE WRN STATES. THE RESULTING SWLY FLOW ALOFT WL CONT TO
BRING A SERIES OF UPR LVL IMPULSES NEWD THRU THE PLAINS STATES IN
THE COMING DAYS.

THE BEST RAIN CHCS ASSOCD WITH THESE FEATURES WL CONT TO BE
PRIMARILY TO THE W OF THE FA...WITH LESSER CHCS AFFECTING PARTS OF
WRN AND NRN AR. WL CONT TO KEEP POPS IN THE 20-30 PERCENT CAT FOR
THOSE PARTS OF THE FA. TIMING OF EACH UPR PIECE OF ENERGY WL RMN
PROBLEMATIC THRU THE PD.

AS A RESULT...TEMP FCST WL ALSO BE TRICKY FOR MUCH OF THE AREA...ESP
HIGH TEMPS. CONTD TO HOLD HIGHS DOWN FEW DEGREES OVR WRN LOCATIONS
FOR MAXES EACH AFTN DUE TO CLOUDS/RAIN CHCS. MEANWHILE...READING IN
THE LOWER AND EVEN SOME MID 80S WL BE COMMON OVR CNTRL AND ERN AR.

MODELS CONT TO INDC THAT THE OVERALL UPR PATTERN WL BEGIN TO
BREAKDOWN HEADING INTO THIS WEEK...WITH CONDS BCM MORE UNSETTLED
HEADING INTO THE LONG TERM.
&&

.LONG TERM...FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY

LONG TERM BEGINS WITH AN UPPER LOW OFF THE COAST OF THE CAROLINAS...
WHICH WILL EVENTUALLY WEAKEN BY THE WEEKEND. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR THE
UPPER RIDGE TO SHIFT EAST OF THE STATE WITH ARKANSAS IN SW FLOW FOR
MUCH OF THE LONG TERM. MEANWHILE...AN UPPER LOW ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST
WILL BEGIN TO PUSH EASTWARD BRINGING PRECIPITATION CHANCES TO THE
STATE. PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL REMAIN IN THE FORECAST FOR MUCH OF
THE LONG TERM WITH THE BEST RAIN CHANCES ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF OF
THE STATE. TOWARDS THE END OF THE WEEKEND...A COLD FRONT WILL
APPROACH THE STATE AND BRING ONE LAST PUSH FOR PRECIPITATION BEFORE
DRY AIR MOVES IN BEHIND THE FRONT.

MODELS ARE GENERALLY IN GOOD AGREEMENT AND DESPITE THE RAIN CHANCES
THROUGH THE LONG TERM...ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST.
&&

.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...44 / LONG TERM...65






000
FXUS64 KLZK 041947
AFDLZK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
245 PM CDT MON MAY 4 2015

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT

A PERSISTENT S/SWLY WIND FLOW ACRS AR THIS AFTN RESULTED IN A NEAR
CARBON COPY OF THE CONDS ON SUN. THE COMBO OF DAYTIME HEATING AND
AMPLE LOW LVL RH ALLOWED FOR SCTD CU TO AGAIN DVLP. MID AFTN TEMPS
RANGED FM THE UPR 70S TO THE MID 80S.

LTL CHG IN THE OVERALL WX PATTERN IS ANTICIPATED OVR THE MID SOUTH
FOR THRU MUCH OF THE SHORT TERM. THE UPR LVL PATTERN WL BE DOMINATED
BY AN UPR LVL RDG AXIS SITUATED JUST TO THE E OF AR...WITH A BROAD
TROF OVR THE WRN STATES. THE RESULTING SWLY FLOW ALOFT WL CONT TO
BRING A SERIES OF UPR LVL IMPULSES NEWD THRU THE PLAINS STATES IN
THE COMING DAYS.

THE BEST RAIN CHCS ASSOCD WITH THESE FEATURES WL CONT TO BE
PRIMARILY TO THE W OF THE FA...WITH LESSER CHCS AFFECTING PARTS OF
WRN AND NRN AR. WL CONT TO KEEP POPS IN THE 20-30 PERCENT CAT FOR
THOSE PARTS OF THE FA. TIMING OF EACH UPR PIECE OF ENERGY WL RMN
PROBLEMATIC THRU THE PD.

AS A RESULT...TEMP FCST WL ALSO BE TRICKY FOR MUCH OF THE AREA...ESP
HIGH TEMPS. CONTD TO HOLD HIGHS DOWN FEW DEGREES OVR WRN LOCATIONS
FOR MAXES EACH AFTN DUE TO CLOUDS/RAIN CHCS. MEANWHILE...READING IN
THE LOWER AND EVEN SOME MID 80S WL BE COMMON OVR CNTRL AND ERN AR.

MODELS CONT TO INDC THAT THE OVERALL UPR PATTERN WL BEGIN TO
BREAKDOWN HEADING INTO THIS WEEK...WITH CONDS BCM MORE UNSETTLED
HEADING INTO THE LONG TERM.
&&

.LONG TERM...FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY

LONG TERM BEGINS WITH AN UPPER LOW OFF THE COAST OF THE CAROLINAS...
WHICH WILL EVENTUALLY WEAKEN BY THE WEEKEND. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR THE
UPPER RIDGE TO SHIFT EAST OF THE STATE WITH ARKANSAS IN SW FLOW FOR
MUCH OF THE LONG TERM. MEANWHILE...AN UPPER LOW ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST
WILL BEGIN TO PUSH EASTWARD BRINGING PRECIPITATION CHANCES TO THE
STATE. PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL REMAIN IN THE FORECAST FOR MUCH OF
THE LONG TERM WITH THE BEST RAIN CHANCES ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF OF
THE STATE. TOWARDS THE END OF THE WEEKEND...A COLD FRONT WILL
APPROACH THE STATE AND BRING ONE LAST PUSH FOR PRECIPITATION BEFORE
DRY AIR MOVES IN BEHIND THE FRONT.

MODELS ARE GENERALLY IN GOOD AGREEMENT AND DESPITE THE RAIN CHANCES
THROUGH THE LONG TERM...ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST.
&&

.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...44 / LONG TERM...65







000
FXUS64 KLZK 041756
AFDLZK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
1256 PM CDT MON MAY 4 2015

.AVIATION...

VFR CONDITIONS WITH SOME GUSTY WINDS WILL BE SEEN TODAY...WITH
WINDS WEAKENING AFTER SUNSET. BKN CEILINGS WILL BE SEEN DURING THE
MORNING HOURS ON THE 5TH...HOWEVER VFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST.


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 637 AM CDT MON MAY 4 2015/

AVIATION...
A VERY WEAK DISTURBANCE WILL BRUSH THE FAR NORTH EARLY THIS
MORNING BUT ONLY VCSH IS NEEDED. WIDESPREAD VFR CONDITIONS WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH THE PERIOD. ONLY OCCASIONAL HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS
WILL MOVE THROUGH WITH AFTERNOON CUMULUS DEVELOPMENT EXPECTED.
SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL PREVAIL AND MAY BECOME A LITTLE
GUSTY FOR THE NORTHERN TERMINALS.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 337 AM CDT MON MAY 4 2015/

SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY

A LARGE UPPER TROUGH IN THE WEST...AND RIDGE IN THE EASTERN
CONUS...IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP OVER THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS AND
HOLD THROUGH THE END OF THE SHORT TERM PERIOD. A SERIES OF
DISTURBANCES WILL EJECT FROM THE TROUGH AND HEAD NORTH THROUGH THE
PLAINS. THE EASTERN RIDGE SHOULD HOLD THESE FAR ENOUGH WEST SUCH
THAT ONLY 20-30 PERCENT RAIN CHANCES WILL BE IN THE FORECAST...AND
EVEN THEN ONLY IN THE WESTERN PART OF THE FORECAST AREA. AS SUCH A
MAJORITY OF THE STATE WILL REMAIN DRY THROUGH THE SHORT TERM.

ON THE TEMPERATURE FRONT A PERSISTENT RETURN FLOW PATTERN...WITH
SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS IN THE LOWEST FEW THOUSAND FEET OF THE
ATMOSPHERE...WILL BE IN PLACE THROUGH THE PERIOD. THIS WILL KEEP
TEMPERATURES AT OR ABOVE NORMAL LEVELS...WITH HIGHS MOSTLY IN THE
LOW 80S IN THE AFTERNOON AND IN THE LOW 60S.

LONG TERM...SUNDAY THROUGH SUNDAY

UPPER PATTERN WILL BE UNDERGOING SOME DRAMATIC CHANGES THIS PERIOD
WITH ALL THE MEDIUM RANGE MODELS SHOWING THE BLOCKY PATTERN OF
LATE BECOMING MUCH MORE PROGRESSIVE WITH TIME. WITH ALL MODELS
BASICALLY ON THE SAME PAGE...A BLEND OF SOLUTIONS SEEMS PRUDENT.

PERIOD INITIATES WITH SIGNIFICANT TROF/UPPER LOW COMBO OVER THE
WESTERN UNITED STATES WITH RIDDING COVERING THE SOUTHEAST CONUS.
UNDERCUTTING THE RIDGE IS AN UPPER LOW WHICH WILL CONTINUE TO
WAFFLE AROUND OFF THE SOUTH CAROLINA COAST. THIS FEATURE DOES
SLOWLY WEAKEN WITH TIME BEFORE FINALLY DRIFTING OFF SHORE BY THE
END OF THE PERIOD.

MEANWHILE...WESTERN SYSTEM WILL BE LIFTING OUT...TURNING INTO MORE
OF AN OPEN WAVE AS IT DOES. TROUGH WILL BE OVER THE WESTERN HIGH
PLAINS ON SUNDAY BEFORE MOVING OVER THE NATIONS MIDSECTION BY THE
END OF THE PERIOD. IT WILL THEN DRAG A FRONT THAT MAKES IT ROUGHLY
HALF WAY THROUGH THE STATE BY MONDAY MORNING.

UPPER FLOW WILL BE OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST FOR THE STATE FOR THE ENTIRE
PERIOD WITH TEMPERATURES REMAINING ABOVE NORMAL...ESPECIALLY EARLY ON.
NUMEROUS RIPPLES WILL ALSO MOVE THROUGH SAID FLOW KEEPING RAIN
CHANCES IN THE FORECAST WITH THE BEST CHANCES LOOKING TO BE OVER THE
WEST.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BATESVILLE AR     83  60  82  60 /  10  10  10  10
CAMDEN AR         84  62  84  63 /  10  10  10  10
HARRISON AR       81  58  80  59 /  10  10  20  10
HOT SPRINGS AR    83  62  82  63 /  10  10  20  10
LITTLE ROCK   AR  85  62  84  62 /  10  10  10  10
MONTICELLO AR     83  62  84  62 /  10  10  10  10
MOUNT IDA AR      83  60  81  63 /  10  10  20  20
MOUNTAIN HOME AR  83  59  81  60 /  10  10  20  10
NEWPORT AR        84  61  83  61 /  10  10  10  10
PINE BLUFF AR     84  62  84  62 /  10  10  10  10
RUSSELLVILLE AR   83  60  83  62 /  10  10  20  10
SEARCY AR         84  60  83  60 /  10  10  10  10
STUTTGART AR      84  63  83  62 /  10  10  10  10
&&

.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&

$$


AVIATION...65





000
FXUS64 KLZK 041756
AFDLZK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
1256 PM CDT MON MAY 4 2015

.AVIATION...

VFR CONDITIONS WITH SOME GUSTY WINDS WILL BE SEEN TODAY...WITH
WINDS WEAKENING AFTER SUNSET. BKN CEILINGS WILL BE SEEN DURING THE
MORNING HOURS ON THE 5TH...HOWEVER VFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST.


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 637 AM CDT MON MAY 4 2015/

AVIATION...
A VERY WEAK DISTURBANCE WILL BRUSH THE FAR NORTH EARLY THIS
MORNING BUT ONLY VCSH IS NEEDED. WIDESPREAD VFR CONDITIONS WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH THE PERIOD. ONLY OCCASIONAL HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS
WILL MOVE THROUGH WITH AFTERNOON CUMULUS DEVELOPMENT EXPECTED.
SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL PREVAIL AND MAY BECOME A LITTLE
GUSTY FOR THE NORTHERN TERMINALS.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 337 AM CDT MON MAY 4 2015/

SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY

A LARGE UPPER TROUGH IN THE WEST...AND RIDGE IN THE EASTERN
CONUS...IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP OVER THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS AND
HOLD THROUGH THE END OF THE SHORT TERM PERIOD. A SERIES OF
DISTURBANCES WILL EJECT FROM THE TROUGH AND HEAD NORTH THROUGH THE
PLAINS. THE EASTERN RIDGE SHOULD HOLD THESE FAR ENOUGH WEST SUCH
THAT ONLY 20-30 PERCENT RAIN CHANCES WILL BE IN THE FORECAST...AND
EVEN THEN ONLY IN THE WESTERN PART OF THE FORECAST AREA. AS SUCH A
MAJORITY OF THE STATE WILL REMAIN DRY THROUGH THE SHORT TERM.

ON THE TEMPERATURE FRONT A PERSISTENT RETURN FLOW PATTERN...WITH
SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS IN THE LOWEST FEW THOUSAND FEET OF THE
ATMOSPHERE...WILL BE IN PLACE THROUGH THE PERIOD. THIS WILL KEEP
TEMPERATURES AT OR ABOVE NORMAL LEVELS...WITH HIGHS MOSTLY IN THE
LOW 80S IN THE AFTERNOON AND IN THE LOW 60S.

LONG TERM...SUNDAY THROUGH SUNDAY

UPPER PATTERN WILL BE UNDERGOING SOME DRAMATIC CHANGES THIS PERIOD
WITH ALL THE MEDIUM RANGE MODELS SHOWING THE BLOCKY PATTERN OF
LATE BECOMING MUCH MORE PROGRESSIVE WITH TIME. WITH ALL MODELS
BASICALLY ON THE SAME PAGE...A BLEND OF SOLUTIONS SEEMS PRUDENT.

PERIOD INITIATES WITH SIGNIFICANT TROF/UPPER LOW COMBO OVER THE
WESTERN UNITED STATES WITH RIDDING COVERING THE SOUTHEAST CONUS.
UNDERCUTTING THE RIDGE IS AN UPPER LOW WHICH WILL CONTINUE TO
WAFFLE AROUND OFF THE SOUTH CAROLINA COAST. THIS FEATURE DOES
SLOWLY WEAKEN WITH TIME BEFORE FINALLY DRIFTING OFF SHORE BY THE
END OF THE PERIOD.

MEANWHILE...WESTERN SYSTEM WILL BE LIFTING OUT...TURNING INTO MORE
OF AN OPEN WAVE AS IT DOES. TROUGH WILL BE OVER THE WESTERN HIGH
PLAINS ON SUNDAY BEFORE MOVING OVER THE NATIONS MIDSECTION BY THE
END OF THE PERIOD. IT WILL THEN DRAG A FRONT THAT MAKES IT ROUGHLY
HALF WAY THROUGH THE STATE BY MONDAY MORNING.

UPPER FLOW WILL BE OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST FOR THE STATE FOR THE ENTIRE
PERIOD WITH TEMPERATURES REMAINING ABOVE NORMAL...ESPECIALLY EARLY ON.
NUMEROUS RIPPLES WILL ALSO MOVE THROUGH SAID FLOW KEEPING RAIN
CHANCES IN THE FORECAST WITH THE BEST CHANCES LOOKING TO BE OVER THE
WEST.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BATESVILLE AR     83  60  82  60 /  10  10  10  10
CAMDEN AR         84  62  84  63 /  10  10  10  10
HARRISON AR       81  58  80  59 /  10  10  20  10
HOT SPRINGS AR    83  62  82  63 /  10  10  20  10
LITTLE ROCK   AR  85  62  84  62 /  10  10  10  10
MONTICELLO AR     83  62  84  62 /  10  10  10  10
MOUNT IDA AR      83  60  81  63 /  10  10  20  20
MOUNTAIN HOME AR  83  59  81  60 /  10  10  20  10
NEWPORT AR        84  61  83  61 /  10  10  10  10
PINE BLUFF AR     84  62  84  62 /  10  10  10  10
RUSSELLVILLE AR   83  60  83  62 /  10  10  20  10
SEARCY AR         84  60  83  60 /  10  10  10  10
STUTTGART AR      84  63  83  62 /  10  10  10  10
&&

.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&

$$


AVIATION...65





000
FXUS64 KLZK 041756
AFDLZK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
1256 PM CDT MON MAY 4 2015

.AVIATION...

VFR CONDITIONS WITH SOME GUSTY WINDS WILL BE SEEN TODAY...WITH
WINDS WEAKENING AFTER SUNSET. BKN CEILINGS WILL BE SEEN DURING THE
MORNING HOURS ON THE 5TH...HOWEVER VFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST.


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 637 AM CDT MON MAY 4 2015/

AVIATION...
A VERY WEAK DISTURBANCE WILL BRUSH THE FAR NORTH EARLY THIS
MORNING BUT ONLY VCSH IS NEEDED. WIDESPREAD VFR CONDITIONS WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH THE PERIOD. ONLY OCCASIONAL HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS
WILL MOVE THROUGH WITH AFTERNOON CUMULUS DEVELOPMENT EXPECTED.
SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL PREVAIL AND MAY BECOME A LITTLE
GUSTY FOR THE NORTHERN TERMINALS.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 337 AM CDT MON MAY 4 2015/

SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY

A LARGE UPPER TROUGH IN THE WEST...AND RIDGE IN THE EASTERN
CONUS...IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP OVER THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS AND
HOLD THROUGH THE END OF THE SHORT TERM PERIOD. A SERIES OF
DISTURBANCES WILL EJECT FROM THE TROUGH AND HEAD NORTH THROUGH THE
PLAINS. THE EASTERN RIDGE SHOULD HOLD THESE FAR ENOUGH WEST SUCH
THAT ONLY 20-30 PERCENT RAIN CHANCES WILL BE IN THE FORECAST...AND
EVEN THEN ONLY IN THE WESTERN PART OF THE FORECAST AREA. AS SUCH A
MAJORITY OF THE STATE WILL REMAIN DRY THROUGH THE SHORT TERM.

ON THE TEMPERATURE FRONT A PERSISTENT RETURN FLOW PATTERN...WITH
SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS IN THE LOWEST FEW THOUSAND FEET OF THE
ATMOSPHERE...WILL BE IN PLACE THROUGH THE PERIOD. THIS WILL KEEP
TEMPERATURES AT OR ABOVE NORMAL LEVELS...WITH HIGHS MOSTLY IN THE
LOW 80S IN THE AFTERNOON AND IN THE LOW 60S.

LONG TERM...SUNDAY THROUGH SUNDAY

UPPER PATTERN WILL BE UNDERGOING SOME DRAMATIC CHANGES THIS PERIOD
WITH ALL THE MEDIUM RANGE MODELS SHOWING THE BLOCKY PATTERN OF
LATE BECOMING MUCH MORE PROGRESSIVE WITH TIME. WITH ALL MODELS
BASICALLY ON THE SAME PAGE...A BLEND OF SOLUTIONS SEEMS PRUDENT.

PERIOD INITIATES WITH SIGNIFICANT TROF/UPPER LOW COMBO OVER THE
WESTERN UNITED STATES WITH RIDDING COVERING THE SOUTHEAST CONUS.
UNDERCUTTING THE RIDGE IS AN UPPER LOW WHICH WILL CONTINUE TO
WAFFLE AROUND OFF THE SOUTH CAROLINA COAST. THIS FEATURE DOES
SLOWLY WEAKEN WITH TIME BEFORE FINALLY DRIFTING OFF SHORE BY THE
END OF THE PERIOD.

MEANWHILE...WESTERN SYSTEM WILL BE LIFTING OUT...TURNING INTO MORE
OF AN OPEN WAVE AS IT DOES. TROUGH WILL BE OVER THE WESTERN HIGH
PLAINS ON SUNDAY BEFORE MOVING OVER THE NATIONS MIDSECTION BY THE
END OF THE PERIOD. IT WILL THEN DRAG A FRONT THAT MAKES IT ROUGHLY
HALF WAY THROUGH THE STATE BY MONDAY MORNING.

UPPER FLOW WILL BE OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST FOR THE STATE FOR THE ENTIRE
PERIOD WITH TEMPERATURES REMAINING ABOVE NORMAL...ESPECIALLY EARLY ON.
NUMEROUS RIPPLES WILL ALSO MOVE THROUGH SAID FLOW KEEPING RAIN
CHANCES IN THE FORECAST WITH THE BEST CHANCES LOOKING TO BE OVER THE
WEST.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BATESVILLE AR     83  60  82  60 /  10  10  10  10
CAMDEN AR         84  62  84  63 /  10  10  10  10
HARRISON AR       81  58  80  59 /  10  10  20  10
HOT SPRINGS AR    83  62  82  63 /  10  10  20  10
LITTLE ROCK   AR  85  62  84  62 /  10  10  10  10
MONTICELLO AR     83  62  84  62 /  10  10  10  10
MOUNT IDA AR      83  60  81  63 /  10  10  20  20
MOUNTAIN HOME AR  83  59  81  60 /  10  10  20  10
NEWPORT AR        84  61  83  61 /  10  10  10  10
PINE BLUFF AR     84  62  84  62 /  10  10  10  10
RUSSELLVILLE AR   83  60  83  62 /  10  10  20  10
SEARCY AR         84  60  83  60 /  10  10  10  10
STUTTGART AR      84  63  83  62 /  10  10  10  10
&&

.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&

$$


AVIATION...65






000
FXUS64 KLZK 041756
AFDLZK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
1256 PM CDT MON MAY 4 2015

.AVIATION...

VFR CONDITIONS WITH SOME GUSTY WINDS WILL BE SEEN TODAY...WITH
WINDS WEAKENING AFTER SUNSET. BKN CEILINGS WILL BE SEEN DURING THE
MORNING HOURS ON THE 5TH...HOWEVER VFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST.


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 637 AM CDT MON MAY 4 2015/

AVIATION...
A VERY WEAK DISTURBANCE WILL BRUSH THE FAR NORTH EARLY THIS
MORNING BUT ONLY VCSH IS NEEDED. WIDESPREAD VFR CONDITIONS WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH THE PERIOD. ONLY OCCASIONAL HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS
WILL MOVE THROUGH WITH AFTERNOON CUMULUS DEVELOPMENT EXPECTED.
SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL PREVAIL AND MAY BECOME A LITTLE
GUSTY FOR THE NORTHERN TERMINALS.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 337 AM CDT MON MAY 4 2015/

SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY

A LARGE UPPER TROUGH IN THE WEST...AND RIDGE IN THE EASTERN
CONUS...IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP OVER THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS AND
HOLD THROUGH THE END OF THE SHORT TERM PERIOD. A SERIES OF
DISTURBANCES WILL EJECT FROM THE TROUGH AND HEAD NORTH THROUGH THE
PLAINS. THE EASTERN RIDGE SHOULD HOLD THESE FAR ENOUGH WEST SUCH
THAT ONLY 20-30 PERCENT RAIN CHANCES WILL BE IN THE FORECAST...AND
EVEN THEN ONLY IN THE WESTERN PART OF THE FORECAST AREA. AS SUCH A
MAJORITY OF THE STATE WILL REMAIN DRY THROUGH THE SHORT TERM.

ON THE TEMPERATURE FRONT A PERSISTENT RETURN FLOW PATTERN...WITH
SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS IN THE LOWEST FEW THOUSAND FEET OF THE
ATMOSPHERE...WILL BE IN PLACE THROUGH THE PERIOD. THIS WILL KEEP
TEMPERATURES AT OR ABOVE NORMAL LEVELS...WITH HIGHS MOSTLY IN THE
LOW 80S IN THE AFTERNOON AND IN THE LOW 60S.

LONG TERM...SUNDAY THROUGH SUNDAY

UPPER PATTERN WILL BE UNDERGOING SOME DRAMATIC CHANGES THIS PERIOD
WITH ALL THE MEDIUM RANGE MODELS SHOWING THE BLOCKY PATTERN OF
LATE BECOMING MUCH MORE PROGRESSIVE WITH TIME. WITH ALL MODELS
BASICALLY ON THE SAME PAGE...A BLEND OF SOLUTIONS SEEMS PRUDENT.

PERIOD INITIATES WITH SIGNIFICANT TROF/UPPER LOW COMBO OVER THE
WESTERN UNITED STATES WITH RIDDING COVERING THE SOUTHEAST CONUS.
UNDERCUTTING THE RIDGE IS AN UPPER LOW WHICH WILL CONTINUE TO
WAFFLE AROUND OFF THE SOUTH CAROLINA COAST. THIS FEATURE DOES
SLOWLY WEAKEN WITH TIME BEFORE FINALLY DRIFTING OFF SHORE BY THE
END OF THE PERIOD.

MEANWHILE...WESTERN SYSTEM WILL BE LIFTING OUT...TURNING INTO MORE
OF AN OPEN WAVE AS IT DOES. TROUGH WILL BE OVER THE WESTERN HIGH
PLAINS ON SUNDAY BEFORE MOVING OVER THE NATIONS MIDSECTION BY THE
END OF THE PERIOD. IT WILL THEN DRAG A FRONT THAT MAKES IT ROUGHLY
HALF WAY THROUGH THE STATE BY MONDAY MORNING.

UPPER FLOW WILL BE OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST FOR THE STATE FOR THE ENTIRE
PERIOD WITH TEMPERATURES REMAINING ABOVE NORMAL...ESPECIALLY EARLY ON.
NUMEROUS RIPPLES WILL ALSO MOVE THROUGH SAID FLOW KEEPING RAIN
CHANCES IN THE FORECAST WITH THE BEST CHANCES LOOKING TO BE OVER THE
WEST.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BATESVILLE AR     83  60  82  60 /  10  10  10  10
CAMDEN AR         84  62  84  63 /  10  10  10  10
HARRISON AR       81  58  80  59 /  10  10  20  10
HOT SPRINGS AR    83  62  82  63 /  10  10  20  10
LITTLE ROCK   AR  85  62  84  62 /  10  10  10  10
MONTICELLO AR     83  62  84  62 /  10  10  10  10
MOUNT IDA AR      83  60  81  63 /  10  10  20  20
MOUNTAIN HOME AR  83  59  81  60 /  10  10  20  10
NEWPORT AR        84  61  83  61 /  10  10  10  10
PINE BLUFF AR     84  62  84  62 /  10  10  10  10
RUSSELLVILLE AR   83  60  83  62 /  10  10  20  10
SEARCY AR         84  60  83  60 /  10  10  10  10
STUTTGART AR      84  63  83  62 /  10  10  10  10
&&

.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&

$$


AVIATION...65






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