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000
FXUS64 KLZK 061131
AFDLZK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
631 AM CDT FRI MAY 6 2016

.AVIATION...06/12Z TAF CYCLE

SFC HIGH PRES OVR AR WL PROVIDE FOR LGT AND VARIABLE WINDS AND VFR
CONDS THRU THE PD. /44/
&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 340 AM CDT FRI MAY 6 2016/

SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT

SKIES WERE CLEAR ACRS THE FA OVERNIGHT AND EARLY THIS MRNG THANKS TO
HIGH PRES CENTERED OVR NRN AR. PREDAWN TEMPS WERE AGAIN IN THE 40S
AND 50S...WITH THE COOLEST READINGS IN THE VALLEY LOCATIONS.

THE HIGH PRESSURE CENTER WL CONT TO DROP SLOLY SEWD TODAY. COMBO OF
LGT WINDS...PLENTY OF SUNSHINE AND DRY AIRMASS WL ALLOW HIGHS TODAY
TO TOP OUT IN THE MID 70S TO ARND 80 DEGREES...CLOSE TO NORMAL FOR
EARLY MAY.

HEADING INTO SAT...THE SFC HIGH WL BE FAR ENOUGH S OF AR TO ALLOW
FOR SLY WIND FLOW TO PREVAIL. ALSO...UPR RDG WL BE BLDG INTO THE MID
SOUTH...PUSHING HIGH TEMPS TO WARM LVLS. MOST AREAS WL CLIMB INTO
THE LOWER AND MID 80S SAT AFTN. ABV NORMAL TEMPS WL CONT INTO THE
LONG TERM PD.

LONG TERM...SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY

THE UPPER RIDGE OVER THE CENTRAL PART OF THE COUNTRY WILL BEGIN
BREAKING DOWN ON SUNDAY AS AN UPPER LOW MOVES INTO THE ROCKIES.
SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL RETURN TO ARKANSAS MONDAY AS THE UPPER LOW MOVES
INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS. THIS LOW WILL SLOWLY MOVE THROUGH THE
UPPER MIDWEST WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.

SURFACE LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE INTO THE PLAINS SUNDAY WITH A COLD
FRONT EXTENDING THROUGH WEST TEXAS. THIS SYSTEM WILL SLOWLY MOVE
EAST SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY AND WITH INCREASING MOISTURE WITH A
SOUTHWEST FLOW...THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THIS
PERIOD. STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE MONDAY AS
A STRONG SHORT WAVE MOVES THROUGH THE STATE. THE COLD FRONT WILL
MOVE THROUGH ARKANSAS WEDNESDAY. CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL DECREASE THURSDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO
BUILD INTO THE AREA. PLEASANT TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED IN THE 70S
AND 80S THROUGH THE PERIOD.
&&

.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&

$$




000
FXUS64 KLZK 061131
AFDLZK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
631 AM CDT FRI MAY 6 2016

.AVIATION...06/12Z TAF CYCLE

SFC HIGH PRES OVR AR WL PROVIDE FOR LGT AND VARIABLE WINDS AND VFR
CONDS THRU THE PD. /44/
&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 340 AM CDT FRI MAY 6 2016/

SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT

SKIES WERE CLEAR ACRS THE FA OVERNIGHT AND EARLY THIS MRNG THANKS TO
HIGH PRES CENTERED OVR NRN AR. PREDAWN TEMPS WERE AGAIN IN THE 40S
AND 50S...WITH THE COOLEST READINGS IN THE VALLEY LOCATIONS.

THE HIGH PRESSURE CENTER WL CONT TO DROP SLOLY SEWD TODAY. COMBO OF
LGT WINDS...PLENTY OF SUNSHINE AND DRY AIRMASS WL ALLOW HIGHS TODAY
TO TOP OUT IN THE MID 70S TO ARND 80 DEGREES...CLOSE TO NORMAL FOR
EARLY MAY.

HEADING INTO SAT...THE SFC HIGH WL BE FAR ENOUGH S OF AR TO ALLOW
FOR SLY WIND FLOW TO PREVAIL. ALSO...UPR RDG WL BE BLDG INTO THE MID
SOUTH...PUSHING HIGH TEMPS TO WARM LVLS. MOST AREAS WL CLIMB INTO
THE LOWER AND MID 80S SAT AFTN. ABV NORMAL TEMPS WL CONT INTO THE
LONG TERM PD.

LONG TERM...SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY

THE UPPER RIDGE OVER THE CENTRAL PART OF THE COUNTRY WILL BEGIN
BREAKING DOWN ON SUNDAY AS AN UPPER LOW MOVES INTO THE ROCKIES.
SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL RETURN TO ARKANSAS MONDAY AS THE UPPER LOW MOVES
INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS. THIS LOW WILL SLOWLY MOVE THROUGH THE
UPPER MIDWEST WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.

SURFACE LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE INTO THE PLAINS SUNDAY WITH A COLD
FRONT EXTENDING THROUGH WEST TEXAS. THIS SYSTEM WILL SLOWLY MOVE
EAST SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY AND WITH INCREASING MOISTURE WITH A
SOUTHWEST FLOW...THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THIS
PERIOD. STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE MONDAY AS
A STRONG SHORT WAVE MOVES THROUGH THE STATE. THE COLD FRONT WILL
MOVE THROUGH ARKANSAS WEDNESDAY. CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL DECREASE THURSDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO
BUILD INTO THE AREA. PLEASANT TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED IN THE 70S
AND 80S THROUGH THE PERIOD.
&&

.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&

$$




000
FXUS64 KLZK 060841
AFDLZK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
340 AM CDT FRI MAY 6 2016

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT

SKIES WERE CLEAR ACRS THE FA OVERNIGHT AND EARLY THIS MRNG THANKS TO
HIGH PRES CENTERED OVR NRN AR. PREDAWN TEMPS WERE AGAIN IN THE 40S
AND 50S...WITH THE COOLEST READINGS IN THE VALLEY LOCATIONS.

THE HIGH PRESSURE CENTER WL CONT TO DROP SLOLY SEWD TODAY. COMBO OF
LGT WINDS...PLENTY OF SUNSHINE AND DRY AIRMASS WL ALLOW HIGHS TODAY
TO TOP OUT IN THE MID 70S TO ARND 80 DEGREES...CLOSE TO NORMAL FOR
EARLY MAY.

HEADING INTO SAT...THE SFC HIGH WL BE FAR ENOUGH S OF AR TO ALLOW
FOR SLY WIND FLOW TO PREVAIL. ALSO...UPR RDG WL BE BLDG INTO THE MID
SOUTH...PUSHING HIGH TEMPS TO WARM LVLS. MOST AREAS WL CLIMB INTO
THE LOWER AND MID 80S SAT AFTN. ABV NORMAL TEMPS WL CONT INTO THE
LONG TERM PD.
&&

.LONG TERM...SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY

THE UPPER RIDGE OVER THE CENTRAL PART OF THE COUNTRY WILL BEGIN
BREAKING DOWN ON SUNDAY AS AN UPPER LOW MOVES INTO THE ROCKIES.
SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL RETURN TO ARKANSAS MONDAY AS THE UPPER LOW MOVES
INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS. THIS LOW WILL SLOWLY MOVE THROUGH THE
UPPER MIDWEST WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.

SURFACE LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE INTO THE PLAINS SUNDAY WITH A COLD
FRONT EXTENDING THROUGH WEST TEXAS. THIS SYSTEM WILL SLOWLY MOVE
EAST SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY AND WITH INCREASING MOISTURE WITH A
SOUTHWEST FLOW...THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THIS
PERIOD. STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE MONDAY AS
A STRONG SHORT WAVE MOVES THROUGH THE STATE. THE COLD FRONT WILL
MOVE THROUGH ARKANSAS WEDNESDAY. CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL DECREASE THURSDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO
BUILD INTO THE AREA. PLEASANT TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED IN THE 70S
AND 80S THROUGH THE PERIOD.
&&

.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...44 / LONG TERM...51




000
FXUS64 KLZK 060841
AFDLZK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
340 AM CDT FRI MAY 6 2016

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT

SKIES WERE CLEAR ACRS THE FA OVERNIGHT AND EARLY THIS MRNG THANKS TO
HIGH PRES CENTERED OVR NRN AR. PREDAWN TEMPS WERE AGAIN IN THE 40S
AND 50S...WITH THE COOLEST READINGS IN THE VALLEY LOCATIONS.

THE HIGH PRESSURE CENTER WL CONT TO DROP SLOLY SEWD TODAY. COMBO OF
LGT WINDS...PLENTY OF SUNSHINE AND DRY AIRMASS WL ALLOW HIGHS TODAY
TO TOP OUT IN THE MID 70S TO ARND 80 DEGREES...CLOSE TO NORMAL FOR
EARLY MAY.

HEADING INTO SAT...THE SFC HIGH WL BE FAR ENOUGH S OF AR TO ALLOW
FOR SLY WIND FLOW TO PREVAIL. ALSO...UPR RDG WL BE BLDG INTO THE MID
SOUTH...PUSHING HIGH TEMPS TO WARM LVLS. MOST AREAS WL CLIMB INTO
THE LOWER AND MID 80S SAT AFTN. ABV NORMAL TEMPS WL CONT INTO THE
LONG TERM PD.
&&

.LONG TERM...SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY

THE UPPER RIDGE OVER THE CENTRAL PART OF THE COUNTRY WILL BEGIN
BREAKING DOWN ON SUNDAY AS AN UPPER LOW MOVES INTO THE ROCKIES.
SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL RETURN TO ARKANSAS MONDAY AS THE UPPER LOW MOVES
INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS. THIS LOW WILL SLOWLY MOVE THROUGH THE
UPPER MIDWEST WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.

SURFACE LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE INTO THE PLAINS SUNDAY WITH A COLD
FRONT EXTENDING THROUGH WEST TEXAS. THIS SYSTEM WILL SLOWLY MOVE
EAST SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY AND WITH INCREASING MOISTURE WITH A
SOUTHWEST FLOW...THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THIS
PERIOD. STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE MONDAY AS
A STRONG SHORT WAVE MOVES THROUGH THE STATE. THE COLD FRONT WILL
MOVE THROUGH ARKANSAS WEDNESDAY. CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL DECREASE THURSDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO
BUILD INTO THE AREA. PLEASANT TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED IN THE 70S
AND 80S THROUGH THE PERIOD.
&&

.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...44 / LONG TERM...51




000
FXUS64 KLZK 060527
AFDLZK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
1227 AM CDT FRI MAY 6 2016

.AVIATION...06/06Z TAF CYCLE

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT
AND VARIABLE AROUND 6 KNOTS OR LESS.
&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 157 PM CDT THU MAY 5 2016/

SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY

WINDS WERE LIGHTER THAN SEEN ON WED AS PRESSURE GRADIENT WAS NOT AS
TIGHT ACROSS THE REGION. HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTH WILL CONTINUE TO
DROP SOUTH OVER THE REGION THROUGH EARLY FRI...AND WILL KEEP TEMPS
BELOW NORMAL OVERNIGHT. DRY AIR WILL REMAIN IN PLACE...AND TEMPS
WILL WARM JUST ABOVE NORMAL FOR FRI AFTERNOON. THIS SFC HIGH WILL
MOVE SE OF THE REGION BY SAT...WITH SRLY FLOW RETURNING TO THE
REGION. THIS SRLY FLOW COMBINED WITH RIDGING ALOFT WILL ALLOW TEMPS
TO WARM ABOVE NORMAL...WITH HIGHS BACK INTO THE 80S FOR MOST AREAS
FOR THE FIRST PART OF THE WEEKEND. THIS TREND WILL CONTINUE INTO THE
LONG TERM PERIOD.

LONG TERM...SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY

LATEST MODELS REMAIN IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH A TRANSITION FROM
THE CURRENT OMEGA BLOCKING PATTERN TO A LESS BLOCKY AND SOMEWHAT
MORE PROGRESSIVE PATTERN. WHILE SOME SUBTLE DIFFERENCES DO EXIST
BETWEEN THE SOLUTIONS...ESPECIALLY LATER IN THE PERIOD...A BLEND OF
FORECAST SOLUTIONS SEEMS PRUDENT.

PERIOD INITIATES WITH THE UPPER BLOCKING PATTERN BREAKING DOWN BUT
UPPER LEVEL RIDGING/SURFACE HIGH WILL HOLD ON FOR MOST OF SUNDAY
BEFORE IT IS PUSHED OFF/SUPPRESSED TO THE SOUTH AND EAST. THE WESTERN
UPPER LOW WILL BE LOCATED IN THE WESTERN HIGH PLAINS BY MONDAY
MORNING WITH SURFACE REFLECTION IN THE CENTRAL PLAINS. PLENTY OF
GULF MOISTURE WILL BE PULLED IN WITH SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
RETURNING TO THE FORECAST. SOME OF THE CONVECTION COULD TO STRONG TO
SEVERE STORMS MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE SURFACE LOW WILL MEANDER AROUND THE REGION
FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD KEEPING AT LEAST LOW END POPS IN THE
FORECAST. TEMPERATURES WILL AVERAGE A LITTLE ABOVE NORMAL.
&&

.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&

$$

AVIATION...57/44




000
FXUS64 KLZK 052142 AAA
AFDLZK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
442 PM CDT THU MAY 5 2016

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD. TAFS OUT AT 2320Z.
&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 157 PM CDT THU MAY 5 2016/

SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY

WINDS WERE LIGHTER THAN SEEN ON WED AS PRESSURE GRADIENT WAS NOT AS
TIGHT ACROSS THE REGION. HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTH WILL CONTINUE TO
DROP SOUTH OVER THE REGION THROUGH EARLY FRI...AND WILL KEEP TEMPS
BELOW NORMAL OVERNIGHT. DRY AIR WILL REMAIN IN PLACE...AND TEMPS
WILL WARM JUST ABOVE NORMAL FOR FRI AFTERNOON. THIS SFC HIGH WILL
MOVE SE OF THE REGION BY SAT...WITH SRLY FLOW RETURNING TO THE
REGION. THIS SRLY FLOW COMBINED WITH RIDGING ALOFT WILL ALLOW TEMPS
TO WARM ABOVE NORMAL...WITH HIGHS BACK INTO THE 80S FOR MOST AREAS
FOR THE FIRST PART OF THE WEEKEND. THIS TREND WILL CONTINUE INTO THE
LONG TERM PERIOD.

LONG TERM...SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY

LATEST MODELS REMAIN IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH A TRANSITION FROM
THE CURRENT OMEGA BLOCKING PATTERN TO A LESS BLOCKY AND SOMEWHAT
MORE PROGRESSIVE PATTERN. WHILE SOME SUBTLE DIFFERENCES DO EXIST
BETWEEN THE SOLUTIONS...ESPECIALLY LATER IN THE PERIOD...A BLEND OF
FORECAST SOLUTIONS SEEMS PRUDENT.

PERIOD INITIATES WITH THE UPPER BLOCKING PATTERN BREAKING DOWN BUT
UPPER LEVEL RIDGING/SURFACE HIGH WILL HOLD ON FOR MOST OF SUNDAY
BEFORE IT IS PUSHED OFF/SUPPRESSED TO THE SOUTH AND EAST. THE WESTERN
UPPER LOW WILL BE LOCATED IN THE WESTERN HIGH PLAINS BY MONDAY
MORNING WITH SURFACE REFLECTION IN THE CENTRAL PLAINS. PLENTY OF
GULF MOISTURE WILL BE PULLED IN WITH SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
RETURNING TO THE FORECAST. SOME OF THE CONVECTION COULD TO STRONG TO
SEVERE STORMS MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE SURFACE LOW WILL MEANDER AROUND THE REGION
FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD KEEPING AT LEAST LOW END POPS IN THE
FORECAST. TEMPERATURES WILL AVERAGE A LITTLE ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&

$$


AVIATION...57




000
FXUS64 KLZK 051857
AFDLZK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
157 PM CDT THU MAY 5 2016

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY

WINDS WERE LIGHTER THAN SEEN ON WED AS PRESSURE GRADIENT WAS NOT AS
TIGHT ACROSS THE REGION. HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTH WILL CONTINUE TO
DROP SOUTH OVER THE REGION THROUGH EARLY FRI...AND WILL KEEP TEMPS
BELOW NORMAL OVERNIGHT. DRY AIR WILL REMAIN IN PLACE...AND TEMPS
WILL WARM JUST ABOVE NORMAL FOR FRI AFTERNOON. THIS SFC HIGH WILL
MOVE SE OF THE REGION BY SAT...WITH SRLY FLOW RETURNING TO THE
REGION. THIS SRLY FLOW COMBINED WITH RIDGING ALOFT WILL ALLOW TEMPS
TO WARM ABOVE NORMAL...WITH HIGHS BACK INTO THE 80S FOR MOST AREAS
FOR THE FIRST PART OF THE WEEKEND. THIS TREND WILL CONTINUE INTO THE
LONG TERM PERIOD.

&&

.LONG TERM...SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY

LATEST MODELS REMAIN IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH A TRANSITION FROM
THE CURRENT OMEGA BLOCKING PATTERN TO A LESS BLOCKY AND SOMEWHAT
MORE PROGRESSIVE PATTERN. WHILE SOME SUBTLE DIFFERENCES DO EXIST
BETWEEN THE SOLUTIONS...ESPECIALLY LATER IN THE PERIOD...A BLEND OF
FORECAST SOLUTIONS SEEMS PRUDENT.

PERIOD INITIATES WITH THE UPPER BLOCKING PATTERN BREAKING DOWN BUT
UPPER LEVEL RIDGING/SURFACE HIGH WILL HOLD ON FOR MOST OF SUNDAY
BEFORE IT IS PUSHED OFF/SUPPRESSED TO THE SOUTH AND EAST. THE WESTERN
UPPER LOW WILL BE LOCATED IN THE WESTERN HIGH PLAINS BY MONDAY
MORNING WITH SURFACE REFLECTION IN THE CENTRAL PLAINS. PLENTY OF
GULF MOISTURE WILL BE PULLED IN WITH SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
RETURNING TO THE FORECAST. SOME OF THE CONVECTION COULD TO STRONG TO
SEVERE STORMS MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE SURFACE LOW WILL MEANDER AROUND THE REGION
FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD KEEPING AT LEAST LOW END POPS IN THE
FORECAST. TEMPERATURES WILL AVERAGE A LITTLE ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BATESVILLE AR     44  79  58  85 /   0   0   0   0
CAMDEN AR         49  81  54  85 /   0   0   0   0
HARRISON AR       44  80  55  84 /   0   0   0   0
HOT SPRINGS AR    49  80  55  84 /   0   0   0   0
LITTLE ROCK   AR  49  80  57  85 /   0   0   0   0
MONTICELLO AR     49  78  55  84 /   0   0   0   0
MOUNT IDA AR      47  81  54  83 /   0   0   0   0
MOUNTAIN HOME AR  44  80  54  85 /   0   0   0   0
NEWPORT AR        45  78  55  85 /   0   0   0   0
PINE BLUFF AR     49  78  55  84 /   0   0   0   0
RUSSELLVILLE AR   46  81  54  86 /   0   0   0   0
SEARCY AR         46  78  54  83 /   0   0   0   0
STUTTGART AR      49  78  56  84 /   0   0   0   0
&&

.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...62 / LONG TERM...56




000
FXUS64 KLZK 051857
AFDLZK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
157 PM CDT THU MAY 5 2016

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY

WINDS WERE LIGHTER THAN SEEN ON WED AS PRESSURE GRADIENT WAS NOT AS
TIGHT ACROSS THE REGION. HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTH WILL CONTINUE TO
DROP SOUTH OVER THE REGION THROUGH EARLY FRI...AND WILL KEEP TEMPS
BELOW NORMAL OVERNIGHT. DRY AIR WILL REMAIN IN PLACE...AND TEMPS
WILL WARM JUST ABOVE NORMAL FOR FRI AFTERNOON. THIS SFC HIGH WILL
MOVE SE OF THE REGION BY SAT...WITH SRLY FLOW RETURNING TO THE
REGION. THIS SRLY FLOW COMBINED WITH RIDGING ALOFT WILL ALLOW TEMPS
TO WARM ABOVE NORMAL...WITH HIGHS BACK INTO THE 80S FOR MOST AREAS
FOR THE FIRST PART OF THE WEEKEND. THIS TREND WILL CONTINUE INTO THE
LONG TERM PERIOD.

&&

.LONG TERM...SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY

LATEST MODELS REMAIN IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH A TRANSITION FROM
THE CURRENT OMEGA BLOCKING PATTERN TO A LESS BLOCKY AND SOMEWHAT
MORE PROGRESSIVE PATTERN. WHILE SOME SUBTLE DIFFERENCES DO EXIST
BETWEEN THE SOLUTIONS...ESPECIALLY LATER IN THE PERIOD...A BLEND OF
FORECAST SOLUTIONS SEEMS PRUDENT.

PERIOD INITIATES WITH THE UPPER BLOCKING PATTERN BREAKING DOWN BUT
UPPER LEVEL RIDGING/SURFACE HIGH WILL HOLD ON FOR MOST OF SUNDAY
BEFORE IT IS PUSHED OFF/SUPPRESSED TO THE SOUTH AND EAST. THE WESTERN
UPPER LOW WILL BE LOCATED IN THE WESTERN HIGH PLAINS BY MONDAY
MORNING WITH SURFACE REFLECTION IN THE CENTRAL PLAINS. PLENTY OF
GULF MOISTURE WILL BE PULLED IN WITH SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
RETURNING TO THE FORECAST. SOME OF THE CONVECTION COULD TO STRONG TO
SEVERE STORMS MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE SURFACE LOW WILL MEANDER AROUND THE REGION
FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD KEEPING AT LEAST LOW END POPS IN THE
FORECAST. TEMPERATURES WILL AVERAGE A LITTLE ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BATESVILLE AR     44  79  58  85 /   0   0   0   0
CAMDEN AR         49  81  54  85 /   0   0   0   0
HARRISON AR       44  80  55  84 /   0   0   0   0
HOT SPRINGS AR    49  80  55  84 /   0   0   0   0
LITTLE ROCK   AR  49  80  57  85 /   0   0   0   0
MONTICELLO AR     49  78  55  84 /   0   0   0   0
MOUNT IDA AR      47  81  54  83 /   0   0   0   0
MOUNTAIN HOME AR  44  80  54  85 /   0   0   0   0
NEWPORT AR        45  78  55  85 /   0   0   0   0
PINE BLUFF AR     49  78  55  84 /   0   0   0   0
RUSSELLVILLE AR   46  81  54  86 /   0   0   0   0
SEARCY AR         46  78  54  83 /   0   0   0   0
STUTTGART AR      49  78  56  84 /   0   0   0   0
&&

.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...62 / LONG TERM...56




000
FXUS64 KLZK 051707 AAB
AFDLZK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
1207 PM CDT THU MAY 5 2016

.DISCUSSION...

UPDATED TO INCLUDE THE 18Z AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW...

&&

.AVIATION...

SOME BREEZY NW WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON...BUT GUSTS
SHOULD REMAIN BELOW 20KTS. OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS WILL
CONTINUE.

&&

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 355 AM CDT THU MAY 5 2016/

SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT

SFC HIGH PRES WAS BLDG INTO THE REGION OVERNIGHT...RESULTING IN LGT
NWLY WINDS AND CLEAR SKIES. EARLY MRNG TEMPS WERE MAINLY IN THE 40S
AND 50S. MEANWHILE ALOFT...A CLOSED LOW WAS MEANDERING OVR THE OH
VALLEY REGION...WITH NWLY FLOW ALOFT FIRMLY IN PLACE OVR THE CNTRL
PART OF THE NATION.

BENIGN WX WL BE THE RULE ACRS THE MID SOUTH THRU THE PD. SFC HIGH
PRES WL RMN IN CONTROL...WITH THE HIGH CENTER PROGGED TO PASS OVR AR
LATE TNGT/FRI. HIGH TEMPS TODAY WL BE A BIT COOLER...WITH READINGS
MAINLY IN THE 70S. CLEAR SKIES AND LGT WINDS TNGT WL ALLOW THE
MERCURY DROP INTO THE 40S AND LOWER 50S. ON FRI...LOOK FOR MAX TEMPS
TO BE CLOSER TO NORMAL SFC WINDS BEGIN TO VEER TO THE W/SW. THE
WARMING TREND WL CONT INTO THE START OF THE WEEKEND AS UPR RDG WORKS
ACRS THE AREA.

LONG TERM...SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY

THE EXTENDED PERIOD WILL BEGIN WITH UPPER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS OVER
THE DESERT SOUTHWEST AND EAST COAST AND UPPER HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE
PLAINS. THE UPPER RIDGE WILL MOVE SLOWLY EAST THROUGH SUNDAY AND BY
SUNDAY NIGHT WILL BE CENTERED OVER THE SOUTHEAST U.S. THE UPPER LOW
IN THE WEST WILL MOVE INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS MONDAY...AND GREAT
LAKES TUESDAY. ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE INTO THE
NORTHERN PLAINS WEDNESDAY.

AT THE SURFACE...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE CENTERED OVER LOUISIANA
SATURDAY. A COLD FRONT OVER WEST TEXAS SUNDAY WILL SLOWLY MOVE EAST
MONDAY AND TUESDAY AND ENTER NORTHWEST ARKANSAS WEDNESDAY. WHEN THE
HIGH PRESSURE MOVES EAST SUNDAY...MOISTURE WILL RETURN TO ARKANSAS.
THIS WILL HELP DESTABILIZE THE ATMOSPHERE AND CHANCES FOR
THUNDERSTORMS WILL RETURN SUNDAY IN THE WEST...THEN WILL INCREASE
STATEWIDE MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE MID 70S
TO MID 80S ARE EXPECTED...WITH LOWS IN THE 50S AND 60S.

&&

.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&

$$


AVIATION...62




000
FXUS64 KLZK 051707 AAB
AFDLZK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
1207 PM CDT THU MAY 5 2016

.DISCUSSION...

UPDATED TO INCLUDE THE 18Z AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW...

&&

.AVIATION...

SOME BREEZY NW WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON...BUT GUSTS
SHOULD REMAIN BELOW 20KTS. OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS WILL
CONTINUE.

&&

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 355 AM CDT THU MAY 5 2016/

SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT

SFC HIGH PRES WAS BLDG INTO THE REGION OVERNIGHT...RESULTING IN LGT
NWLY WINDS AND CLEAR SKIES. EARLY MRNG TEMPS WERE MAINLY IN THE 40S
AND 50S. MEANWHILE ALOFT...A CLOSED LOW WAS MEANDERING OVR THE OH
VALLEY REGION...WITH NWLY FLOW ALOFT FIRMLY IN PLACE OVR THE CNTRL
PART OF THE NATION.

BENIGN WX WL BE THE RULE ACRS THE MID SOUTH THRU THE PD. SFC HIGH
PRES WL RMN IN CONTROL...WITH THE HIGH CENTER PROGGED TO PASS OVR AR
LATE TNGT/FRI. HIGH TEMPS TODAY WL BE A BIT COOLER...WITH READINGS
MAINLY IN THE 70S. CLEAR SKIES AND LGT WINDS TNGT WL ALLOW THE
MERCURY DROP INTO THE 40S AND LOWER 50S. ON FRI...LOOK FOR MAX TEMPS
TO BE CLOSER TO NORMAL SFC WINDS BEGIN TO VEER TO THE W/SW. THE
WARMING TREND WL CONT INTO THE START OF THE WEEKEND AS UPR RDG WORKS
ACRS THE AREA.

LONG TERM...SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY

THE EXTENDED PERIOD WILL BEGIN WITH UPPER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS OVER
THE DESERT SOUTHWEST AND EAST COAST AND UPPER HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE
PLAINS. THE UPPER RIDGE WILL MOVE SLOWLY EAST THROUGH SUNDAY AND BY
SUNDAY NIGHT WILL BE CENTERED OVER THE SOUTHEAST U.S. THE UPPER LOW
IN THE WEST WILL MOVE INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS MONDAY...AND GREAT
LAKES TUESDAY. ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE INTO THE
NORTHERN PLAINS WEDNESDAY.

AT THE SURFACE...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE CENTERED OVER LOUISIANA
SATURDAY. A COLD FRONT OVER WEST TEXAS SUNDAY WILL SLOWLY MOVE EAST
MONDAY AND TUESDAY AND ENTER NORTHWEST ARKANSAS WEDNESDAY. WHEN THE
HIGH PRESSURE MOVES EAST SUNDAY...MOISTURE WILL RETURN TO ARKANSAS.
THIS WILL HELP DESTABILIZE THE ATMOSPHERE AND CHANCES FOR
THUNDERSTORMS WILL RETURN SUNDAY IN THE WEST...THEN WILL INCREASE
STATEWIDE MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE MID 70S
TO MID 80S ARE EXPECTED...WITH LOWS IN THE 50S AND 60S.

&&

.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&

$$


AVIATION...62




000
FXUS64 KLZK 051143
AFDLZK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
643 AM CDT THU MAY 5 2016

.AVIATION...05/12Z TAF CYCLE

HIGH PRES WL PREVAIL ACRS THE FA...RESULTING IN CONTD VFR CONDS
THRU THE PD. /44/
&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 355 AM CDT THU MAY 5 2016/

SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT

SFC HIGH PRES WAS BLDG INTO THE REGION OVERNIGHT...RESULTING IN LGT
NWLY WINDS AND CLEAR SKIES. EARLY MRNG TEMPS WERE MAINLY IN THE 40S
AND 50S. MEANWHILE ALOFT...A CLOSED LOW WAS MEANDERING OVR THE OH
VALLEY REGION...WITH NWLY FLOW ALOFT FIRMLY IN PLACE OVR THE CNTRL
PART OF THE NATION.

BENIGN WX WL BE THE RULE ACRS THE MID SOUTH THRU THE PD. SFC HIGH
PRES WL RMN IN CONTROL...WITH THE HIGH CENTER PROGGED TO PASS OVR AR
LATE TNGT/FRI. HIGH TEMPS TODAY WL BE A BIT COOLER...WITH READINGS
MAINLY IN THE 70S. CLEAR SKIES AND LGT WINDS TNGT WL ALLOW THE
MERCURY DROP INTO THE 40S AND LOWER 50S. ON FRI...LOOK FOR MAX TEMPS
TO BE CLOSER TO NORMAL SFC WINDS BEGIN TO VEER TO THE W/SW. THE
WARMING TREND WL CONT INTO THE START OF THE WEEKEND AS UPR RDG WORKS
ACRS THE AREA.

LONG TERM...SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY

THE EXTENDED PERIOD WILL BEGIN WITH UPPER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS OVER
THE DESERT SOUTHWEST AND EAST COAST AND UPPER HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE
PLAINS. THE UPPER RIDGE WILL MOVE SLOWLY EAST THROUGH SUNDAY AND BY
SUNDAY NIGHT WILL BE CENTERED OVER THE SOUTHEAST U.S. THE UPPER LOW
IN THE WEST WILL MOVE INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS MONDAY...AND GREAT
LAKES TUESDAY. ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE INTO THE
NORTHERN PLAINS WEDNESDAY.

AT THE SURFACE...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE CENTERED OVER LOUISIANA
SATURDAY. A COLD FRONT OVER WEST TEXAS SUNDAY WILL SLOWLY MOVE EAST
MONDAY AND TUESDAY AND ENTER NORTHWEST ARKANSAS WEDNESDAY. WHEN THE
HIGH PRESSURE MOVES EAST SUNDAY...MOISTURE WILL RETURN TO ARKANSAS.
THIS WILL HELP DESTABILIZE THE ATMOSPHERE AND CHANCES FOR
THUNDERSTORMS WILL RETURN SUNDAY IN THE WEST...THEN WILL INCREASE
STATEWIDE MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE MID 70S
TO MID 80S ARE EXPECTED...WITH LOWS IN THE 50S AND 60S.
&&

.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&

$$




000
FXUS64 KLZK 051143
AFDLZK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
643 AM CDT THU MAY 5 2016

.AVIATION...05/12Z TAF CYCLE

HIGH PRES WL PREVAIL ACRS THE FA...RESULTING IN CONTD VFR CONDS
THRU THE PD. /44/
&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 355 AM CDT THU MAY 5 2016/

SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT

SFC HIGH PRES WAS BLDG INTO THE REGION OVERNIGHT...RESULTING IN LGT
NWLY WINDS AND CLEAR SKIES. EARLY MRNG TEMPS WERE MAINLY IN THE 40S
AND 50S. MEANWHILE ALOFT...A CLOSED LOW WAS MEANDERING OVR THE OH
VALLEY REGION...WITH NWLY FLOW ALOFT FIRMLY IN PLACE OVR THE CNTRL
PART OF THE NATION.

BENIGN WX WL BE THE RULE ACRS THE MID SOUTH THRU THE PD. SFC HIGH
PRES WL RMN IN CONTROL...WITH THE HIGH CENTER PROGGED TO PASS OVR AR
LATE TNGT/FRI. HIGH TEMPS TODAY WL BE A BIT COOLER...WITH READINGS
MAINLY IN THE 70S. CLEAR SKIES AND LGT WINDS TNGT WL ALLOW THE
MERCURY DROP INTO THE 40S AND LOWER 50S. ON FRI...LOOK FOR MAX TEMPS
TO BE CLOSER TO NORMAL SFC WINDS BEGIN TO VEER TO THE W/SW. THE
WARMING TREND WL CONT INTO THE START OF THE WEEKEND AS UPR RDG WORKS
ACRS THE AREA.

LONG TERM...SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY

THE EXTENDED PERIOD WILL BEGIN WITH UPPER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS OVER
THE DESERT SOUTHWEST AND EAST COAST AND UPPER HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE
PLAINS. THE UPPER RIDGE WILL MOVE SLOWLY EAST THROUGH SUNDAY AND BY
SUNDAY NIGHT WILL BE CENTERED OVER THE SOUTHEAST U.S. THE UPPER LOW
IN THE WEST WILL MOVE INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS MONDAY...AND GREAT
LAKES TUESDAY. ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE INTO THE
NORTHERN PLAINS WEDNESDAY.

AT THE SURFACE...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE CENTERED OVER LOUISIANA
SATURDAY. A COLD FRONT OVER WEST TEXAS SUNDAY WILL SLOWLY MOVE EAST
MONDAY AND TUESDAY AND ENTER NORTHWEST ARKANSAS WEDNESDAY. WHEN THE
HIGH PRESSURE MOVES EAST SUNDAY...MOISTURE WILL RETURN TO ARKANSAS.
THIS WILL HELP DESTABILIZE THE ATMOSPHERE AND CHANCES FOR
THUNDERSTORMS WILL RETURN SUNDAY IN THE WEST...THEN WILL INCREASE
STATEWIDE MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE MID 70S
TO MID 80S ARE EXPECTED...WITH LOWS IN THE 50S AND 60S.
&&

.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&

$$




000
FXUS64 KLZK 050855
AFDLZK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
355 AM CDT THU MAY 5 2016

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT

SFC HIGH PRES WAS BLDG INTO THE REGION OVERNIGHT...RESULTING IN LGT
NWLY WINDS AND CLEAR SKIES. EARLY MRNG TEMPS WERE MAINLY IN THE 40S
AND 50S. MEANWHILE ALOFT...A CLOSED LOW WAS MEANDERING OVR THE OH
VALLEY REGION...WITH NWLY FLOW ALOFT FIRMLY IN PLACE OVR THE CNTRL
PART OF THE NATION.

BENIGN WX WL BE THE RULE ACRS THE MID SOUTH THRU THE PD. SFC HIGH
PRES WL RMN IN CONTROL...WITH THE HIGH CENTER PROGGED TO PASS OVR AR
LATE TNGT/FRI. HIGH TEMPS TODAY WL BE A BIT COOLER...WITH READINGS
MAINLY IN THE 70S. CLEAR SKIES AND LGT WINDS TNGT WL ALLOW THE
MERCURY DROP INTO THE 40S AND LOWER 50S. ON FRI...LOOK FOR MAX TEMPS
TO BE CLOSER TO NORMAL SFC WINDS BEGIN TO VEER TO THE W/SW. THE
WARMING TREND WL CONT INTO THE START OF THE WEEKEND AS UPR RDG WORKS
ACRS THE AREA.
&&

.LONG TERM...SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY

THE EXTENDED PERIOD WILL BEGIN WITH UPPER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS OVER
THE DESERT SOUTHWEST AND EAST COAST AND UPPER HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE
PLAINS. THE UPPER RIDGE WILL MOVE SLOWLY EAST THROUGH SUNDAY AND BY
SUNDAY NIGHT WILL BE CENTERED OVER THE SOUTHEAST U.S. THE UPPER LOW
IN THE WEST WILL MOVE INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS MONDAY...AND GREAT
LAKES TUESDAY. ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE INTO THE
NORTHERN PLAINS WEDNESDAY.

AT THE SURFACE...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE CENTERED OVER LOUISIANA
SATURDAY. A COLD FRONT OVER WEST TEXAS SUNDAY WILL SLOWLY MOVE EAST
MONDAY AND TUESDAY AND ENTER NORTHWEST ARKANSAS WEDNESDAY. WHEN THE
HIGH PRESSURE MOVES EAST SUNDAY...MOISTURE WILL RETURN TO ARKANSAS.
THIS WILL HELP DESTABILIZE THE ATMOSPHERE AND CHANCES FOR
THUNDERSTORMS WILL RETURN SUNDAY IN THE WEST...THEN WILL INCREASE
STATEWIDE MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE MID 70S
TO MID 80S ARE EXPECTED...WITH LOWS IN THE 50S AND 60S.
&&

.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...44 / LONG TERM...51




000
FXUS64 KLZK 050533
AFDLZK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
1233 AM CDT THU MAY 5 2016

.AVIATION...05/06Z TAF CYCLE

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD...WITH NO SIGNIFICANT
WEATHER OR OBSTRUCTIONS TO VISIBILITY.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 246 PM CDT WED MAY 4 2016/

SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY

A COLD FRONT IS MOVING SOUTH THROUGH THE CWA EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON...EVIDENT IN THE WIND SHIFT AND CU FIELD IN VIS SAT
IMAGERY. SOME BREEZY CONDITIONS WERE ALSO SEEN AHEAD AND BEHIND THIS
FRONT...WHICH WILL CONTINUE THROUGH EARLY THIS EVENING AS THE FRONT
PROGRESSES SOUTH. DRY CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN FOR MOST AREAS AS
MOISTURE LEVELS REMAIN LIMITED. HOWEVER...SOME ISOLATED ACTIVITY
COULD DEVELOP ACROSS EXTREME ERN AND SERN AR LATER THIS AFTERNOON
AND EVENING...BUT POTENTIAL IS TOO LOW TO MENTION IN FORECAST AT
THIS TIME.

WINDS WILL LESSEN OVERNIGHT AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT RELAXES ACROSS
THE CWA. SOME INCREASED WIND SPEEDS WILL BE SEEN FOR THU
AFTERNOON...PRIMARILY FROM MIXING...BUT WILL BE LESS INTENSE THAN
SEEN THIS WED AFTERNOON. DRY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH FRI AS
HIGH PRESSURE MOVES ACROSS THE REGION.

LONG TERM...FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY

ARKANSAS WILL BE SITTING UNDER THE UPPER RIDGE THROUGH THE WEEKEND
PROVIDING MILD AND DRY CONDITIONS. BY SUNDAY NIGHT SOUTHERLY FLOW
WILL RETURN USHERING IN GULF MOISTURE AHEAD OF A STORM SYSTEM MOVING
IN FROM THE WEST. INTRODUCED SLIGHT POPS IN NORTHWEST
ARKANSAS...SPREADING EASTWARD THROUGH THE DAY MONDAY. THIS WILL BE
THE START OF THE ACTIVE WEATHER PERIOD PERSISTING THROUGH MIDWEEK.
WITH THE UPPER LOW WELL TO THE NORTH...SEVERE WEATHER AT THIS TIME
LOOKS LIMITED. HOWEVER...THIS COULD CHANGE AND WILL BE MONITORED
CLOSELY. HIGH TEMPS THROUGH THE WEEKEND WILL BE MAINLY IN THE 80S
WITH LOWS IN THE 60S. EXPECT SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPS HEADING INTO THE
WORK WEEK ON ACCOUNT OF THE INCREASED CLOUD COVER AND RAIN
CHANCES.
&&

.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&

$$

AVIATION...57/44




000
FXUS64 KLZK 050533
AFDLZK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
1233 AM CDT THU MAY 5 2016

.AVIATION...05/06Z TAF CYCLE

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD...WITH NO SIGNIFICANT
WEATHER OR OBSTRUCTIONS TO VISIBILITY.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 246 PM CDT WED MAY 4 2016/

SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY

A COLD FRONT IS MOVING SOUTH THROUGH THE CWA EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON...EVIDENT IN THE WIND SHIFT AND CU FIELD IN VIS SAT
IMAGERY. SOME BREEZY CONDITIONS WERE ALSO SEEN AHEAD AND BEHIND THIS
FRONT...WHICH WILL CONTINUE THROUGH EARLY THIS EVENING AS THE FRONT
PROGRESSES SOUTH. DRY CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN FOR MOST AREAS AS
MOISTURE LEVELS REMAIN LIMITED. HOWEVER...SOME ISOLATED ACTIVITY
COULD DEVELOP ACROSS EXTREME ERN AND SERN AR LATER THIS AFTERNOON
AND EVENING...BUT POTENTIAL IS TOO LOW TO MENTION IN FORECAST AT
THIS TIME.

WINDS WILL LESSEN OVERNIGHT AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT RELAXES ACROSS
THE CWA. SOME INCREASED WIND SPEEDS WILL BE SEEN FOR THU
AFTERNOON...PRIMARILY FROM MIXING...BUT WILL BE LESS INTENSE THAN
SEEN THIS WED AFTERNOON. DRY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH FRI AS
HIGH PRESSURE MOVES ACROSS THE REGION.

LONG TERM...FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY

ARKANSAS WILL BE SITTING UNDER THE UPPER RIDGE THROUGH THE WEEKEND
PROVIDING MILD AND DRY CONDITIONS. BY SUNDAY NIGHT SOUTHERLY FLOW
WILL RETURN USHERING IN GULF MOISTURE AHEAD OF A STORM SYSTEM MOVING
IN FROM THE WEST. INTRODUCED SLIGHT POPS IN NORTHWEST
ARKANSAS...SPREADING EASTWARD THROUGH THE DAY MONDAY. THIS WILL BE
THE START OF THE ACTIVE WEATHER PERIOD PERSISTING THROUGH MIDWEEK.
WITH THE UPPER LOW WELL TO THE NORTH...SEVERE WEATHER AT THIS TIME
LOOKS LIMITED. HOWEVER...THIS COULD CHANGE AND WILL BE MONITORED
CLOSELY. HIGH TEMPS THROUGH THE WEEKEND WILL BE MAINLY IN THE 80S
WITH LOWS IN THE 60S. EXPECT SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPS HEADING INTO THE
WORK WEEK ON ACCOUNT OF THE INCREASED CLOUD COVER AND RAIN
CHANCES.
&&

.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&

$$

AVIATION...57/44




000
FXUS64 KLZK 042301 AAA
AFDLZK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
601 PM CDT WED MAY 4 2016

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD...WITH NO SIGNIFICANT
WEATHER OR OBSTRUCTIONS TO VISIBILITY. TAFS OUT SHORTLY.
&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 246 PM CDT WED MAY 4 2016/

SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY

A COLD FRONT IS MOVING SOUTH THROUGH THE CWA EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON...EVIDENT IN THE WIND SHIFT AND CU FIELD IN VIS SAT
IMAGERY. SOME BREEZY CONDITIONS WERE ALSO SEEN AHEAD AND BEHIND THIS
FRONT...WHICH WILL CONTINUE THROUGH EARLY THIS EVENING AS THE FRONT
PROGRESSES SOUTH. DRY CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN FOR MOST AREAS AS
MOISTURE LEVELS REMAIN LIMITED. HOWEVER...SOME ISOLATED ACTIVITY
COULD DEVELOP ACROSS EXTREME ERN AND SERN AR LATER THIS AFTERNOON
AND EVENING...BUT POTENTIAL IS TOO LOW TO MENTION IN FORECAST AT
THIS TIME.

WINDS WILL LESSEN OVERNIGHT AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT RELAXES ACROSS
THE CWA. SOME INCREASED WIND SPEEDS WILL BE SEEN FOR THU
AFTERNOON...PRIMARILY FROM MIXING...BUT WILL BE LESS INTENSE THAN
SEEN THIS WED AFTERNOON. DRY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH FRI AS
HIGH PRESSURE MOVES ACROSS THE REGION.

LONG TERM...FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY

ARKANSAS WILL BE SITTING UNDER THE UPPER RIDGE THROUGH THE WEEKEND
PROVIDING MILD AND DRY CONDITIONS. BY SUNDAY NIGHT SOUTHERLY FLOW
WILL RETURN USHERING IN GULF MOISTURE AHEAD OF A STORM SYSTEM MOVING
IN FROM THE WEST. INTRODUCED SLIGHT POPS IN NORTHWEST
ARKANSAS...SPREADING EASTWARD THROUGH THE DAY MONDAY. THIS WILL BE
THE START OF THE ACTIVE WEATHER PERIOD PERSISTING THROUGH MIDWEEK.
WITH THE UPPER LOW WELL TO THE NORTH...SEVERE WEATHER AT THIS TIME
LOOKS LIMITED. HOWEVER...THIS COULD CHANGE AND WILL BE MONITORED
CLOSELY. HIGH TEMPS THROUGH THE WEEKEND WILL BE MAINLY IN THE 80S
WITH LOWS IN THE 60S. EXPECT SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPS HEADING INTO THE
WORK WEEK ON ACCOUNT OF THE INCREASED CLOUD COVER AND RAIN
CHANCES.
&&

.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&

$$

AVIATION...57




000
FXUS64 KLZK 042301 AAA
AFDLZK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
601 PM CDT WED MAY 4 2016

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD...WITH NO SIGNIFICANT
WEATHER OR OBSTRUCTIONS TO VISIBILITY. TAFS OUT SHORTLY.
&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 246 PM CDT WED MAY 4 2016/

SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY

A COLD FRONT IS MOVING SOUTH THROUGH THE CWA EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON...EVIDENT IN THE WIND SHIFT AND CU FIELD IN VIS SAT
IMAGERY. SOME BREEZY CONDITIONS WERE ALSO SEEN AHEAD AND BEHIND THIS
FRONT...WHICH WILL CONTINUE THROUGH EARLY THIS EVENING AS THE FRONT
PROGRESSES SOUTH. DRY CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN FOR MOST AREAS AS
MOISTURE LEVELS REMAIN LIMITED. HOWEVER...SOME ISOLATED ACTIVITY
COULD DEVELOP ACROSS EXTREME ERN AND SERN AR LATER THIS AFTERNOON
AND EVENING...BUT POTENTIAL IS TOO LOW TO MENTION IN FORECAST AT
THIS TIME.

WINDS WILL LESSEN OVERNIGHT AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT RELAXES ACROSS
THE CWA. SOME INCREASED WIND SPEEDS WILL BE SEEN FOR THU
AFTERNOON...PRIMARILY FROM MIXING...BUT WILL BE LESS INTENSE THAN
SEEN THIS WED AFTERNOON. DRY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH FRI AS
HIGH PRESSURE MOVES ACROSS THE REGION.

LONG TERM...FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY

ARKANSAS WILL BE SITTING UNDER THE UPPER RIDGE THROUGH THE WEEKEND
PROVIDING MILD AND DRY CONDITIONS. BY SUNDAY NIGHT SOUTHERLY FLOW
WILL RETURN USHERING IN GULF MOISTURE AHEAD OF A STORM SYSTEM MOVING
IN FROM THE WEST. INTRODUCED SLIGHT POPS IN NORTHWEST
ARKANSAS...SPREADING EASTWARD THROUGH THE DAY MONDAY. THIS WILL BE
THE START OF THE ACTIVE WEATHER PERIOD PERSISTING THROUGH MIDWEEK.
WITH THE UPPER LOW WELL TO THE NORTH...SEVERE WEATHER AT THIS TIME
LOOKS LIMITED. HOWEVER...THIS COULD CHANGE AND WILL BE MONITORED
CLOSELY. HIGH TEMPS THROUGH THE WEEKEND WILL BE MAINLY IN THE 80S
WITH LOWS IN THE 60S. EXPECT SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPS HEADING INTO THE
WORK WEEK ON ACCOUNT OF THE INCREASED CLOUD COVER AND RAIN
CHANCES.
&&

.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&

$$

AVIATION...57




000
FXUS64 KLZK 041946
AFDLZK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
246 PM CDT WED MAY 4 2016

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY

A COLD FRONT IS MOVING SOUTH THROUGH THE CWA EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON...EVIDENT IN THE WIND SHIFT AND CU FIELD IN VIS SAT
IMAGERY. SOME BREEZY CONDITIONS WERE ALSO SEEN AHEAD AND BEHIND THIS
FRONT...WHICH WILL CONTINUE THROUGH EARLY THIS EVENING AS THE FRONT
PROGRESSES SOUTH. DRY CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN FOR MOST AREAS AS
MOISTURE LEVELS REMAIN LIMITED. HOWEVER...SOME ISOLATED ACTIVITY
COULD DEVELOP ACROSS EXTREME ERN AND SERN AR LATER THIS AFTERNOON
AND EVENING...BUT POTENTIAL IS TOO LOW TO MENTION IN FORECAST AT
THIS TIME.

WINDS WILL LESSEN OVERNIGHT AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT RELAXES ACROSS
THE CWA. SOME INCREASED WIND SPEEDS WILL BE SEEN FOR THU
AFTERNOON...PRIMARILY FROM MIXING...BUT WILL BE LESS INTENSE THAN
SEEN THIS WED AFTERNOON. DRY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH FRI AS
HIGH PRESSURE MOVES ACROSS THE REGION.

&&

.LONG TERM...FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY

ARKANSAS WILL BE SITTING UNDER THE UPPER RIDGE THROUGH THE WEEKEND
PROVIDING MILD AND DRY CONDITIONS. BY SUNDAY NIGHT SOUTHERLY FLOW
WILL RETURN USHERING IN GULF MOISTURE AHEAD OF A STORM SYSTEM MOVING
IN FROM THE WEST. INTRODUCED SLIGHT POPS IN NORTHWEST
ARKANSAS...SPREADING EASTWARD THROUGH THE DAY MONDAY. THIS WILL BE
THE START OF THE ACTIVE WEATHER PERIOD PERSISTING THROUGH MIDWEEK.
WITH THE UPPER LOW WELL TO THE NORTH...SEVERE WEATHER AT THIS TIME
LOOKS LIMITED. HOWEVER...THIS COULD CHANGE AND WILL BE MONITORED
CLOSELY. HIGH TEMPS THROUGH THE WEEKEND WILL BE MAINLY IN THE 80S
WITH LOWS IN THE 60S. EXPECT SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPS HEADING INTO THE
WORK WEEK ON ACCOUNT OF THE INCREASED CLOUD COVER AND RAIN
CHANCES.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BATESVILLE AR     47  73  46  78 /   0   0   0   0
CAMDEN AR         51  77  48  80 /   0   0   0   0
HARRISON AR       44  72  45  79 /   0   0   0   0
HOT SPRINGS AR    50  76  49  80 /   0   0   0   0
LITTLE ROCK   AR  51  75  50  80 /   0   0   0   0
MONTICELLO AR     52  74  50  79 /   0   0   0   0
MOUNT IDA AR      48  76  47  81 /   0   0   0   0
MOUNTAIN HOME AR  45  73  45  80 /   0   0   0   0
NEWPORT AR        46  73  46  78 /   0   0   0   0
PINE BLUFF AR     51  74  49  78 /   0   0   0   0
RUSSELLVILLE AR   47  76  47  81 /   0   0   0   0
SEARCY AR         48  74  46  78 /   0   0   0   0
STUTTGART AR      50  73  49  78 /   0   0   0   0
&&

.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...62 / LONG TERM...61




000
FXUS64 KLZK 041707 AAB
AFDLZK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
1207 PM CDT WED MAY 4 2016

.DISCUSSION...

UPDATED TO INCLUDE THE 18Z AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW...

&&

.AVIATION...

SOME BREEZY CONDITIONS ARE ONGOING EARLY THIS AFTERNOON...AND
THESE CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE REST OF THIS AFTERNOON
AS A COLD FRONT DROPS SOUTH THROUGH THE STATE. EXPECT NW
WINDS...WITH SOME GUSTS OVER 20 KTS. ONLY SOME SCATTERED CU WILL
BE SEEN WITH THIS FRONT...WITH THE BEST RAIN CHANCES REMAINING
EAST OF THE AREA. WINDS WILL LESSEN OVERNIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE
APPROACHES THE STATE. EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS THROUGHOUT THE TAF
PERIOD.

&&

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 330 AM CDT WED MAY 4 2016/

SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT

QUITE WX NOTED ACRS THE FA EARLY THIS MRNG. A BAND OF MID/HIGH LVL
CLOUDS WAS WORKING ACRS SRN AR ATTM...ASSOCD WITH AN UPR TROF
WORKING THRU THE REGION. OTHERWISE...MAINLY CLEAR SKIES WERE NOTED
WITH TEMPS RANGING FM THE MID 40S TO THE MID 50S.

ANOTHER UPR TROF/CDFNT WL DROP SWD THRU THE FA LATER TODAY AND EARLY
TNGT. A BAND OF MID CLOUDS WL ACCOMPANY THE FROPA. STILL APPEARS
THAT ANY RAIN CHCS ASSOCD WITH THIS SYSTEM WL RMN E OF AR. SWLY SFC
WINDS AHEAD OF THE FNT WL ALLOW HIGHS TODAY TO TOP OUT IN THE 70S.
BREEZY CONDS WL BE NOTED IN THE VCNTY OF THE FNT AS WELL...BUT
SPEEDS STILL LOOK TO RMN BLW LAKE WIND ADVY CRITERIA.

HIGH PRES WL BLD IN BEHIND THE FNT LATER TNGT AND ON THU. MUCH DRIER
AIR WL BE NOTED ACRS THE REGION ON THU...WITH HIGHS MAINLY IN THE
LOWER AND MID 70S. LOWS THU NGT WL DROP BACK INTO THE MID 40S TO
LOWER 50S.

LONG TERM...FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY

THE OMEGA BLOCKING PATTERN CONTINUES FRIDAY WITH THE UPPER RIDGE
OVER THE PLAINS. THIS RIDGE WILL SLOWLY MOVE EAST LATE FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY. THE UPPER LOW OVER THE WEST COAST MOVES INTO THE ROCKIES
SUNDAY AND WILL STRENGTHEN SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY AS THE RIDGE
WEAKENS. THIS UPPER LOW THEN MOVES INTO THE PLAINS TUESDAY.

DRY WEATHER AND RIDGING WILL CONTINUE FRIDAY AND THROUGH MUCH OF THE
WEEKEND. THERE WILL BE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
OVER WEST ARKANSAS SUNDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO WEST TEXAS
SUNDAY AND AS IT MOVES EAST MONDAY AND TUESDAY RAIN CHANCES IN
ARKANSAS WILL INCREASE. THE FRONT SHOULD REACH WESTERN ARKANSAS
TUESDAY MORNING. NO MAJOR CHANGES TO THE EXTENDED FORECAST THOUGH
DID INCREASE POPS FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY A BIT. HIGH TEMPERATURES IN
THE MID 70S TO MID 80S ARE EXPECTED...WITH LOWS IN THE 50S AND 60S.

&&

.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&

$$


AVIATION...62




000
FXUS64 KLZK 041707 AAB
AFDLZK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
1207 PM CDT WED MAY 4 2016

.DISCUSSION...

UPDATED TO INCLUDE THE 18Z AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW...

&&

.AVIATION...

SOME BREEZY CONDITIONS ARE ONGOING EARLY THIS AFTERNOON...AND
THESE CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE REST OF THIS AFTERNOON
AS A COLD FRONT DROPS SOUTH THROUGH THE STATE. EXPECT NW
WINDS...WITH SOME GUSTS OVER 20 KTS. ONLY SOME SCATTERED CU WILL
BE SEEN WITH THIS FRONT...WITH THE BEST RAIN CHANCES REMAINING
EAST OF THE AREA. WINDS WILL LESSEN OVERNIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE
APPROACHES THE STATE. EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS THROUGHOUT THE TAF
PERIOD.

&&

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 330 AM CDT WED MAY 4 2016/

SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT

QUITE WX NOTED ACRS THE FA EARLY THIS MRNG. A BAND OF MID/HIGH LVL
CLOUDS WAS WORKING ACRS SRN AR ATTM...ASSOCD WITH AN UPR TROF
WORKING THRU THE REGION. OTHERWISE...MAINLY CLEAR SKIES WERE NOTED
WITH TEMPS RANGING FM THE MID 40S TO THE MID 50S.

ANOTHER UPR TROF/CDFNT WL DROP SWD THRU THE FA LATER TODAY AND EARLY
TNGT. A BAND OF MID CLOUDS WL ACCOMPANY THE FROPA. STILL APPEARS
THAT ANY RAIN CHCS ASSOCD WITH THIS SYSTEM WL RMN E OF AR. SWLY SFC
WINDS AHEAD OF THE FNT WL ALLOW HIGHS TODAY TO TOP OUT IN THE 70S.
BREEZY CONDS WL BE NOTED IN THE VCNTY OF THE FNT AS WELL...BUT
SPEEDS STILL LOOK TO RMN BLW LAKE WIND ADVY CRITERIA.

HIGH PRES WL BLD IN BEHIND THE FNT LATER TNGT AND ON THU. MUCH DRIER
AIR WL BE NOTED ACRS THE REGION ON THU...WITH HIGHS MAINLY IN THE
LOWER AND MID 70S. LOWS THU NGT WL DROP BACK INTO THE MID 40S TO
LOWER 50S.

LONG TERM...FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY

THE OMEGA BLOCKING PATTERN CONTINUES FRIDAY WITH THE UPPER RIDGE
OVER THE PLAINS. THIS RIDGE WILL SLOWLY MOVE EAST LATE FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY. THE UPPER LOW OVER THE WEST COAST MOVES INTO THE ROCKIES
SUNDAY AND WILL STRENGTHEN SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY AS THE RIDGE
WEAKENS. THIS UPPER LOW THEN MOVES INTO THE PLAINS TUESDAY.

DRY WEATHER AND RIDGING WILL CONTINUE FRIDAY AND THROUGH MUCH OF THE
WEEKEND. THERE WILL BE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
OVER WEST ARKANSAS SUNDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO WEST TEXAS
SUNDAY AND AS IT MOVES EAST MONDAY AND TUESDAY RAIN CHANCES IN
ARKANSAS WILL INCREASE. THE FRONT SHOULD REACH WESTERN ARKANSAS
TUESDAY MORNING. NO MAJOR CHANGES TO THE EXTENDED FORECAST THOUGH
DID INCREASE POPS FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY A BIT. HIGH TEMPERATURES IN
THE MID 70S TO MID 80S ARE EXPECTED...WITH LOWS IN THE 50S AND 60S.

&&

.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&

$$


AVIATION...62




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