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000
FXUS64 KLZK 212108
AFDLZK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
308 PM CST SUN DEC 21 2014

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT

CLOUDY CONDITIONS ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF OF ARKANSAS HAVE HELD
TOUGH THROUGH THE DAY TODAY...TONIGHT MOISTURE AND CLOUDS WILL
INCREASE FROM WEST TO EAST...AND AS A RESULT..EXPECTING PATCHY FOG
AND DRIZZLE ACROSS WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE STATE. TEMPERATURES
TONIGHT WILL BE FAIRLY WARM AND WILL ONLY COOL BY A FEW DEGREES
TONIGHT.

TEMPERATURES WILL INCREASE ON MONDAY AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD
FRONT...AND DESPITE SIGNIFICANT CLOUD COVER AND CHANCES FOR
PRECIPITATION...DO STILL EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO WARM INTO THE 50S
AND LOWER 60S ACROSS THE STATE. THERE COULD BE CHANCES FOR A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST ARKANSAS MONDAY
EVENING...HOWEVER LAPSE RATES DO NOT LOOK AS STEEP AS YESTERDAYS
MODEL RUNS...AND JUST ADDED ISOLATED THUNDER.

THERE MAY BE A BRIEF BREAK IN THE PRECIP CHANCES EARLY IN THE DAY ON
TUESDAY...BUT MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE A SECOND ROUND OF PRECIP
TUESDAY NIGHT AS THE UPPER TROUGH SWINGS THROUGH THE REGION. THE GFS
HAS COME BETTER IN LINE WITH THE EURO AND NAM AND ENDS THE PRECIP
BEFORE SIGNIFICANT COLD AIR MOVES INTO THE STATE. AT THIS TIME...IT
APPEARS EVEN LESS LIKELY THAT ACCUMULATING WINTRY PRECIP WILL
OCCUR...BUT DO EXPECT A FEW FLAKES TO FLY ACROSS THE NORTH.
TEMPERATURES FINISH THE SHORT TERM SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL ON
WEDNESDAY.


&&

.LONG TERM...CHRISTMAS DAY THROUGH SUNDAY
HIGH PRESSURE IN THE GULF OF MEXICO WILL CREATE SOUTHERLY WINDS
CHRISTMAS DAY. THIS WILL RESULT IN MILD CONDITIONS. MEANWHILE...A
COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE PLAINS. THE FRONT WILL PASS
THROUGH THE AREA ON FRIDAY...WITH SMALL CHANCES FOR RAIN IN THE
FORECAST. THE FRONT WILL BE FOLLOWED BY COOLER AIR/TEMPERATURES A
FEW DEGREES BELOW NORMAL ON SATURDAY. IT WILL REMAIN COOL AND DRY ON
SUNDAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BATESVILLE AR     41  55  45  50 /  10  40  50  50
CAMDEN AR         44  62  51  54 /  10  20  30  70
HARRISON AR       40  55  40  47 /  10  40  30  20
HOT SPRINGS AR    43  58  47  52 /  10  30  30  60
LITTLE ROCK   AR  42  58  49  52 /  10  30  50  60
MONTICELLO AR     45  61  54  58 /  10  20  50  70
MOUNT IDA AR      44  58  44  50 /  10  30  30  50
MOUNTAIN HOME AR  40  55  42  48 /  10  40  40  20
NEWPORT AR        41  56  47  52 /  10  30  60  60
PINE BLUFF AR     42  60  51  54 /  10  20  50  70
RUSSELLVILLE AR   42  57  44  50 /  10  40  40  40
SEARCY AR         39  55  46  50 /  10  30  50  60
STUTTGART AR      42  59  50  53 /  10  30  60  60
&&

.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...65 / LONG TERM...46





000
FXUS64 KLZK 212108
AFDLZK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
308 PM CST SUN DEC 21 2014

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT

CLOUDY CONDITIONS ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF OF ARKANSAS HAVE HELD
TOUGH THROUGH THE DAY TODAY...TONIGHT MOISTURE AND CLOUDS WILL
INCREASE FROM WEST TO EAST...AND AS A RESULT..EXPECTING PATCHY FOG
AND DRIZZLE ACROSS WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE STATE. TEMPERATURES
TONIGHT WILL BE FAIRLY WARM AND WILL ONLY COOL BY A FEW DEGREES
TONIGHT.

TEMPERATURES WILL INCREASE ON MONDAY AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD
FRONT...AND DESPITE SIGNIFICANT CLOUD COVER AND CHANCES FOR
PRECIPITATION...DO STILL EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO WARM INTO THE 50S
AND LOWER 60S ACROSS THE STATE. THERE COULD BE CHANCES FOR A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST ARKANSAS MONDAY
EVENING...HOWEVER LAPSE RATES DO NOT LOOK AS STEEP AS YESTERDAYS
MODEL RUNS...AND JUST ADDED ISOLATED THUNDER.

THERE MAY BE A BRIEF BREAK IN THE PRECIP CHANCES EARLY IN THE DAY ON
TUESDAY...BUT MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE A SECOND ROUND OF PRECIP
TUESDAY NIGHT AS THE UPPER TROUGH SWINGS THROUGH THE REGION. THE GFS
HAS COME BETTER IN LINE WITH THE EURO AND NAM AND ENDS THE PRECIP
BEFORE SIGNIFICANT COLD AIR MOVES INTO THE STATE. AT THIS TIME...IT
APPEARS EVEN LESS LIKELY THAT ACCUMULATING WINTRY PRECIP WILL
OCCUR...BUT DO EXPECT A FEW FLAKES TO FLY ACROSS THE NORTH.
TEMPERATURES FINISH THE SHORT TERM SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL ON
WEDNESDAY.


&&

.LONG TERM...CHRISTMAS DAY THROUGH SUNDAY
HIGH PRESSURE IN THE GULF OF MEXICO WILL CREATE SOUTHERLY WINDS
CHRISTMAS DAY. THIS WILL RESULT IN MILD CONDITIONS. MEANWHILE...A
COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE PLAINS. THE FRONT WILL PASS
THROUGH THE AREA ON FRIDAY...WITH SMALL CHANCES FOR RAIN IN THE
FORECAST. THE FRONT WILL BE FOLLOWED BY COOLER AIR/TEMPERATURES A
FEW DEGREES BELOW NORMAL ON SATURDAY. IT WILL REMAIN COOL AND DRY ON
SUNDAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BATESVILLE AR     41  55  45  50 /  10  40  50  50
CAMDEN AR         44  62  51  54 /  10  20  30  70
HARRISON AR       40  55  40  47 /  10  40  30  20
HOT SPRINGS AR    43  58  47  52 /  10  30  30  60
LITTLE ROCK   AR  42  58  49  52 /  10  30  50  60
MONTICELLO AR     45  61  54  58 /  10  20  50  70
MOUNT IDA AR      44  58  44  50 /  10  30  30  50
MOUNTAIN HOME AR  40  55  42  48 /  10  40  40  20
NEWPORT AR        41  56  47  52 /  10  30  60  60
PINE BLUFF AR     42  60  51  54 /  10  20  50  70
RUSSELLVILLE AR   42  57  44  50 /  10  40  40  40
SEARCY AR         39  55  46  50 /  10  30  50  60
STUTTGART AR      42  59  50  53 /  10  30  60  60
&&

.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...65 / LONG TERM...46






000
FXUS64 KLZK 212108
AFDLZK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
308 PM CST SUN DEC 21 2014

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT

CLOUDY CONDITIONS ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF OF ARKANSAS HAVE HELD
TOUGH THROUGH THE DAY TODAY...TONIGHT MOISTURE AND CLOUDS WILL
INCREASE FROM WEST TO EAST...AND AS A RESULT..EXPECTING PATCHY FOG
AND DRIZZLE ACROSS WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE STATE. TEMPERATURES
TONIGHT WILL BE FAIRLY WARM AND WILL ONLY COOL BY A FEW DEGREES
TONIGHT.

TEMPERATURES WILL INCREASE ON MONDAY AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD
FRONT...AND DESPITE SIGNIFICANT CLOUD COVER AND CHANCES FOR
PRECIPITATION...DO STILL EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO WARM INTO THE 50S
AND LOWER 60S ACROSS THE STATE. THERE COULD BE CHANCES FOR A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST ARKANSAS MONDAY
EVENING...HOWEVER LAPSE RATES DO NOT LOOK AS STEEP AS YESTERDAYS
MODEL RUNS...AND JUST ADDED ISOLATED THUNDER.

THERE MAY BE A BRIEF BREAK IN THE PRECIP CHANCES EARLY IN THE DAY ON
TUESDAY...BUT MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE A SECOND ROUND OF PRECIP
TUESDAY NIGHT AS THE UPPER TROUGH SWINGS THROUGH THE REGION. THE GFS
HAS COME BETTER IN LINE WITH THE EURO AND NAM AND ENDS THE PRECIP
BEFORE SIGNIFICANT COLD AIR MOVES INTO THE STATE. AT THIS TIME...IT
APPEARS EVEN LESS LIKELY THAT ACCUMULATING WINTRY PRECIP WILL
OCCUR...BUT DO EXPECT A FEW FLAKES TO FLY ACROSS THE NORTH.
TEMPERATURES FINISH THE SHORT TERM SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL ON
WEDNESDAY.


&&

.LONG TERM...CHRISTMAS DAY THROUGH SUNDAY
HIGH PRESSURE IN THE GULF OF MEXICO WILL CREATE SOUTHERLY WINDS
CHRISTMAS DAY. THIS WILL RESULT IN MILD CONDITIONS. MEANWHILE...A
COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE PLAINS. THE FRONT WILL PASS
THROUGH THE AREA ON FRIDAY...WITH SMALL CHANCES FOR RAIN IN THE
FORECAST. THE FRONT WILL BE FOLLOWED BY COOLER AIR/TEMPERATURES A
FEW DEGREES BELOW NORMAL ON SATURDAY. IT WILL REMAIN COOL AND DRY ON
SUNDAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BATESVILLE AR     41  55  45  50 /  10  40  50  50
CAMDEN AR         44  62  51  54 /  10  20  30  70
HARRISON AR       40  55  40  47 /  10  40  30  20
HOT SPRINGS AR    43  58  47  52 /  10  30  30  60
LITTLE ROCK   AR  42  58  49  52 /  10  30  50  60
MONTICELLO AR     45  61  54  58 /  10  20  50  70
MOUNT IDA AR      44  58  44  50 /  10  30  30  50
MOUNTAIN HOME AR  40  55  42  48 /  10  40  40  20
NEWPORT AR        41  56  47  52 /  10  30  60  60
PINE BLUFF AR     42  60  51  54 /  10  20  50  70
RUSSELLVILLE AR   42  57  44  50 /  10  40  40  40
SEARCY AR         39  55  46  50 /  10  30  50  60
STUTTGART AR      42  59  50  53 /  10  30  60  60
&&

.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...65 / LONG TERM...46





000
FXUS64 KLZK 211636
AFDLZK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
1036 AM CST SUN DEC 21 2014

.UPDATE...

CLOUDY SKIES AND FOGGY CONDITIONS HAVE BEEN SEEN ACROSS WESTERN
ARKANSAS THIS MORNING...WITH THESE FOGGY CONDITIONS DISSIPATING BY
LATE MORNING. ELSEWHERE...MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES WILL BE SEEN ACROSS
PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST ARKANSAS TODAY. FORECAST IS IN
GREAT SHAPE AND NO MAJOR CHANGES WERE NEEDED.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 526 AM CST SUN DEC 21 2014/

AVIATION...
MARGINAL VFR CONDITIONS WILL GRADUALLY IMPROVE BY MID DAY. WINDS
WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE. STRATOCU AND PATCHY FOG WILL DEVELOP
AGAIN TONIGHT...RESTRICTING CONDITIONS MOSTLY AFTER 06Z. TAFS
ALREADY OUT.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 207 AM CST SUN DEC 21 2014/

SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY

SOME BREAKS IN THE CLOUD COVER HAVE FINALLY BEEN SEEN FOR PORTIONS
OF THE CWA AS OF THIS PAST SAT AFTERNOON...AND HAVE PERSISTED INTO
THE OVERNIGHT HRS THIS MORNING. HOWEVER...THE WRN AND NWRN PARTS OF
THE CWA ARE STILL SEEING PERSISTENT CLOUD COVER. NOT EXPECTING A
WHOLE LOT OF CHANGE THROUGH THIS SUN REGARDING OVERALL CLOUD COVER
AS LOCATIONS ACROSS NWRN PORTIONS OF THE CWA MAY REMAIN GENERALLY
CLOUDY. FURTHER SOUTH AND EAST...SHOULD SEE SOME SUNSHINE THROUGH
THE DAY...THOUGH WILL LIKELY START TO SEE INCREASING CLOUDS THIS
AFTERNOON AND ESPECIALLY THIS EVENING.

FLOW ALOFT WILL BE GENERALLY FROM THE SW OVER THE REGION ...BUT WILL
BEGIN TO SEE SOME WEAK DISTURBANCES ALOFT LIFT OVER THE STATE BY
THIS EVENING INTO MON. THIS WILL BRING A RETURN TO THE WIDESPREAD
CLOUD COVER...AS WELL AS ENOUGH LIFT TO SEE SOME DZ OR SPRINKLES
OVERNIGHT TONIGHT. A TROUGH TO THE WEST AND NW OF THE STATE WILL
BEGIN DEEPENING ON MON...WITH SRLY FLOW INCREASING ACROSS THE REGION
AS SFC LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS ACROSS TX AND STARTS LIFTING TOWARDS
AR. AS A RESULT...START INCREASING POPS ON MON AND ESPECIALLY MON
NIGHT AS THE UPPER TROUGH CONTINUES TO DEEPEN...AND SFC LOW LIFTS NE
ACROSS SERN SECTIONS OF THE STATE. A COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS
SFC LOW WILL THEN DROP SE ACROSS THE STATE ON TUE...WITH MUCH COLDER
AIR MOVING INTO AR.

TUE HIGH TEMPS WILL LIKELY BE EARLY IN THE DAY AS THE FRONT WILL BE
MOVING THROUGH THE STATE BY MIDDAY. AS A RESULT...WILL SEE TEMPS
DROPPING FOR MOST LOCATIONS THROUGHOUT THE DAY ON TUE...WITH THE
ONLY EXCEPTION PROBABLY BEING SERN SECTIONS OF THE STATE WHERE THE
FRONT WILL BE LAST TO MOVE THROUGH. INITIALLY...TEMPS WILL BE IN THE
50S LATE MON NIGHT INTO TUE...BUT WILL LIKELY SEE TEMPS DROP INTO
THE 30S BY TUE EVENING ACROSS NWRN SECTIONS OF THE STATE. AT THE
SAME TIME...THE UPPER LOW TO THE WEST OF AR WILL CONTINUE TO
DEEPEN...AND POTENTIALLY BECOME CLOSED OFF FROM THE MAIN UPPER FLOW.
THIS SETUP WILL ONLY ENHANCE THE COOLING TREND FOR TUE NIGHT INTO
WED...AS WELL AS PROVIDING SOME ADDITIONAL ENERGY FOR ANOTHER WAVE
OF PRECIP.

DEPENDING ON THE STRENGTH OF THE COLD AIR INTRUSION TUE NIGHT INTO
WED MORNING...AND THE EXACT TRACK OF THE UPPER LEVEL LOW...THERE
LOOKS TO BE SOME INCREASING POTENTIAL FOR AT LEAST SOME BRIEF
SNOWFALL ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE CWA. AS ONE WOULD EXPECT...THERE
REMAINS SOME UNCERTAINTY REGARDING THE EXTENT OF THE COLD AIR...AND
WHAT MOISTURE WILL REMAIN...AS WELL AS THE EXACT TRACK OF THIS UPPER
LOW AS IT MOVES ACROSS THE REGION. GIVEN THE RECENT TREND TO HIGHER
MOISTURE LEVELS...STRONGER UPPER LEVEL FORCING...AND COLDER
TEMPS...HAVE STARTED TO INTRODUCE A BIT HIGHER CHANCE FOR SOME
WINTRY PRECIP TUE NIGHT INTO WED. WHILE THE OVERALL TEMP PROFILE
WILL SUPPORT GENERALLY ALL SNOW...THE FORECAST SOUNDINGS KEEP A
SIGNIFICANT WARM LAYER NEAR THE SFC. THIS WOULD TEND TO SUGGEST A
COLD RAIN...MIXING WITH SOME VERY WET SNOW. AS A RESULT...ONLY
MENTION LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS OF LESS THAN AN INCH FOR STORM TOTAL.
GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTIES MENTIONED ABOVE HOWEVER...THESE AMOUNTS WILL
LIKELY CHANGE OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS.

NEW DATA OVER THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HRS WILL DEFINITELY DIMINISH SOME OF
THE UNCERTAINTIES MENTIONED ABOVE...ESPECIALLY SINCE THE STORM
SYSTEM THAT WILL EVENTUALLY MOVE ACROSS THE REGION WILL BE BETTER
SAMPLED BY OBSERVED DATA AS IT MOVES ONSHORE OVER THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST. AS ALWAYS...REFER TO THE LATEST FORECASTS AND DATA IN THE
NEXT FEW DAYS AS CHANGES IN THE STORM LOCATION AND STRENGTH COULD
RESULT IN SOME POTENTIAL IMPACTS FOR THE CHRISTMAS EVE TRAVEL.

LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY

HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO
THURSDAY. WINDS WILL COME BACK AROUND TO THE SOUTHWEST...WITH
READINGS WARMING INTO THE 50S TO NEAR 60 ON CHRISTMAS DAY. THE HIGH
WILL HEAD EAST BY FRIDAY...WITH RAIN COMING BACK INTO THE FORECAST
AS A FRONT MOVES THROUGH ARKANSAS. THE FRONT SHOULD CLEAR THE AREA
BY EARLY SATURDAY...WITH COLDER AND DRIER AIR FOLLOWING.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BATESVILLE AR     50  39  54  47 /  10  10  30  50
CAMDEN AR         58  43  61  54 /  10  10  20  50
HARRISON AR       48  38  53  41 /  10  10  30  50
HOT SPRINGS AR    54  42  57  48 /  10  10  20  50
LITTLE ROCK   AR  54  41  57  51 /  10  10  20  50
MONTICELLO AR     56  44  61  57 /  10  10  20  50
MOUNT IDA AR      53  43  56  46 /  10  10  20  50
MOUNTAIN HOME AR  49  39  54  43 /  10  10  30  50
NEWPORT AR        51  39  55  49 /  10  10  20  50
PINE BLUFF AR     55  41  59  54 /  10  10  20  50
RUSSELLVILLE AR   53  41  56  46 /  10  10  30  50
SEARCY AR         51  38  55  49 /  10  10  20  50
STUTTGART AR      54  40  58  52 /  10  10  20  50
&&

.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&

$$

65





000
FXUS64 KLZK 211636
AFDLZK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
1036 AM CST SUN DEC 21 2014

.UPDATE...

CLOUDY SKIES AND FOGGY CONDITIONS HAVE BEEN SEEN ACROSS WESTERN
ARKANSAS THIS MORNING...WITH THESE FOGGY CONDITIONS DISSIPATING BY
LATE MORNING. ELSEWHERE...MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES WILL BE SEEN ACROSS
PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST ARKANSAS TODAY. FORECAST IS IN
GREAT SHAPE AND NO MAJOR CHANGES WERE NEEDED.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 526 AM CST SUN DEC 21 2014/

AVIATION...
MARGINAL VFR CONDITIONS WILL GRADUALLY IMPROVE BY MID DAY. WINDS
WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE. STRATOCU AND PATCHY FOG WILL DEVELOP
AGAIN TONIGHT...RESTRICTING CONDITIONS MOSTLY AFTER 06Z. TAFS
ALREADY OUT.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 207 AM CST SUN DEC 21 2014/

SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY

SOME BREAKS IN THE CLOUD COVER HAVE FINALLY BEEN SEEN FOR PORTIONS
OF THE CWA AS OF THIS PAST SAT AFTERNOON...AND HAVE PERSISTED INTO
THE OVERNIGHT HRS THIS MORNING. HOWEVER...THE WRN AND NWRN PARTS OF
THE CWA ARE STILL SEEING PERSISTENT CLOUD COVER. NOT EXPECTING A
WHOLE LOT OF CHANGE THROUGH THIS SUN REGARDING OVERALL CLOUD COVER
AS LOCATIONS ACROSS NWRN PORTIONS OF THE CWA MAY REMAIN GENERALLY
CLOUDY. FURTHER SOUTH AND EAST...SHOULD SEE SOME SUNSHINE THROUGH
THE DAY...THOUGH WILL LIKELY START TO SEE INCREASING CLOUDS THIS
AFTERNOON AND ESPECIALLY THIS EVENING.

FLOW ALOFT WILL BE GENERALLY FROM THE SW OVER THE REGION ...BUT WILL
BEGIN TO SEE SOME WEAK DISTURBANCES ALOFT LIFT OVER THE STATE BY
THIS EVENING INTO MON. THIS WILL BRING A RETURN TO THE WIDESPREAD
CLOUD COVER...AS WELL AS ENOUGH LIFT TO SEE SOME DZ OR SPRINKLES
OVERNIGHT TONIGHT. A TROUGH TO THE WEST AND NW OF THE STATE WILL
BEGIN DEEPENING ON MON...WITH SRLY FLOW INCREASING ACROSS THE REGION
AS SFC LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS ACROSS TX AND STARTS LIFTING TOWARDS
AR. AS A RESULT...START INCREASING POPS ON MON AND ESPECIALLY MON
NIGHT AS THE UPPER TROUGH CONTINUES TO DEEPEN...AND SFC LOW LIFTS NE
ACROSS SERN SECTIONS OF THE STATE. A COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS
SFC LOW WILL THEN DROP SE ACROSS THE STATE ON TUE...WITH MUCH COLDER
AIR MOVING INTO AR.

TUE HIGH TEMPS WILL LIKELY BE EARLY IN THE DAY AS THE FRONT WILL BE
MOVING THROUGH THE STATE BY MIDDAY. AS A RESULT...WILL SEE TEMPS
DROPPING FOR MOST LOCATIONS THROUGHOUT THE DAY ON TUE...WITH THE
ONLY EXCEPTION PROBABLY BEING SERN SECTIONS OF THE STATE WHERE THE
FRONT WILL BE LAST TO MOVE THROUGH. INITIALLY...TEMPS WILL BE IN THE
50S LATE MON NIGHT INTO TUE...BUT WILL LIKELY SEE TEMPS DROP INTO
THE 30S BY TUE EVENING ACROSS NWRN SECTIONS OF THE STATE. AT THE
SAME TIME...THE UPPER LOW TO THE WEST OF AR WILL CONTINUE TO
DEEPEN...AND POTENTIALLY BECOME CLOSED OFF FROM THE MAIN UPPER FLOW.
THIS SETUP WILL ONLY ENHANCE THE COOLING TREND FOR TUE NIGHT INTO
WED...AS WELL AS PROVIDING SOME ADDITIONAL ENERGY FOR ANOTHER WAVE
OF PRECIP.

DEPENDING ON THE STRENGTH OF THE COLD AIR INTRUSION TUE NIGHT INTO
WED MORNING...AND THE EXACT TRACK OF THE UPPER LEVEL LOW...THERE
LOOKS TO BE SOME INCREASING POTENTIAL FOR AT LEAST SOME BRIEF
SNOWFALL ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE CWA. AS ONE WOULD EXPECT...THERE
REMAINS SOME UNCERTAINTY REGARDING THE EXTENT OF THE COLD AIR...AND
WHAT MOISTURE WILL REMAIN...AS WELL AS THE EXACT TRACK OF THIS UPPER
LOW AS IT MOVES ACROSS THE REGION. GIVEN THE RECENT TREND TO HIGHER
MOISTURE LEVELS...STRONGER UPPER LEVEL FORCING...AND COLDER
TEMPS...HAVE STARTED TO INTRODUCE A BIT HIGHER CHANCE FOR SOME
WINTRY PRECIP TUE NIGHT INTO WED. WHILE THE OVERALL TEMP PROFILE
WILL SUPPORT GENERALLY ALL SNOW...THE FORECAST SOUNDINGS KEEP A
SIGNIFICANT WARM LAYER NEAR THE SFC. THIS WOULD TEND TO SUGGEST A
COLD RAIN...MIXING WITH SOME VERY WET SNOW. AS A RESULT...ONLY
MENTION LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS OF LESS THAN AN INCH FOR STORM TOTAL.
GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTIES MENTIONED ABOVE HOWEVER...THESE AMOUNTS WILL
LIKELY CHANGE OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS.

NEW DATA OVER THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HRS WILL DEFINITELY DIMINISH SOME OF
THE UNCERTAINTIES MENTIONED ABOVE...ESPECIALLY SINCE THE STORM
SYSTEM THAT WILL EVENTUALLY MOVE ACROSS THE REGION WILL BE BETTER
SAMPLED BY OBSERVED DATA AS IT MOVES ONSHORE OVER THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST. AS ALWAYS...REFER TO THE LATEST FORECASTS AND DATA IN THE
NEXT FEW DAYS AS CHANGES IN THE STORM LOCATION AND STRENGTH COULD
RESULT IN SOME POTENTIAL IMPACTS FOR THE CHRISTMAS EVE TRAVEL.

LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY

HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO
THURSDAY. WINDS WILL COME BACK AROUND TO THE SOUTHWEST...WITH
READINGS WARMING INTO THE 50S TO NEAR 60 ON CHRISTMAS DAY. THE HIGH
WILL HEAD EAST BY FRIDAY...WITH RAIN COMING BACK INTO THE FORECAST
AS A FRONT MOVES THROUGH ARKANSAS. THE FRONT SHOULD CLEAR THE AREA
BY EARLY SATURDAY...WITH COLDER AND DRIER AIR FOLLOWING.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BATESVILLE AR     50  39  54  47 /  10  10  30  50
CAMDEN AR         58  43  61  54 /  10  10  20  50
HARRISON AR       48  38  53  41 /  10  10  30  50
HOT SPRINGS AR    54  42  57  48 /  10  10  20  50
LITTLE ROCK   AR  54  41  57  51 /  10  10  20  50
MONTICELLO AR     56  44  61  57 /  10  10  20  50
MOUNT IDA AR      53  43  56  46 /  10  10  20  50
MOUNTAIN HOME AR  49  39  54  43 /  10  10  30  50
NEWPORT AR        51  39  55  49 /  10  10  20  50
PINE BLUFF AR     55  41  59  54 /  10  10  20  50
RUSSELLVILLE AR   53  41  56  46 /  10  10  30  50
SEARCY AR         51  38  55  49 /  10  10  20  50
STUTTGART AR      54  40  58  52 /  10  10  20  50
&&

.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&

$$

65






000
FXUS64 KLZK 211126 AAA
AFDLZK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
526 AM CST SUN DEC 21 2014

.AVIATION...
MARGINAL VFR CONDITIONS WILL GRADUALLY IMPROVE BY MID DAY. WINDS
WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE. STRATOCU AND PATCHY FOG WILL DEVELOP
AGAIN TONIGHT...RESTRICTING CONDITIONS MOSTLY AFTER 06Z. TAFS
ALREADY OUT.
&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 207 AM CST SUN DEC 21 2014/

SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY

SOME BREAKS IN THE CLOUD COVER HAVE FINALLY BEEN SEEN FOR PORTIONS
OF THE CWA AS OF THIS PAST SAT AFTERNOON...AND HAVE PERSISTED INTO
THE OVERNIGHT HRS THIS MORNING. HOWEVER...THE WRN AND NWRN PARTS OF
THE CWA ARE STILL SEEING PERSISTENT CLOUD COVER. NOT EXPECTING A
WHOLE LOT OF CHANGE THROUGH THIS SUN REGARDING OVERALL CLOUD COVER
AS LOCATIONS ACROSS NWRN PORTIONS OF THE CWA MAY REMAIN GENERALLY
CLOUDY. FURTHER SOUTH AND EAST...SHOULD SEE SOME SUNSHINE THROUGH
THE DAY...THOUGH WILL LIKELY START TO SEE INCREASING CLOUDS THIS
AFTERNOON AND ESPECIALLY THIS EVENING.

FLOW ALOFT WILL BE GENERALLY FROM THE SW OVER THE REGION ...BUT WILL
BEGIN TO SEE SOME WEAK DISTURBANCES ALOFT LIFT OVER THE STATE BY
THIS EVENING INTO MON. THIS WILL BRING A RETURN TO THE WIDESPREAD
CLOUD COVER...AS WELL AS ENOUGH LIFT TO SEE SOME DZ OR SPRINKLES
OVERNIGHT TONIGHT. A TROUGH TO THE WEST AND NW OF THE STATE WILL
BEGIN DEEPENING ON MON...WITH SRLY FLOW INCREASING ACROSS THE REGION
AS SFC LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS ACROSS TX AND STARTS LIFTING TOWARDS
AR. AS A RESULT...START INCREASING POPS ON MON AND ESPECIALLY MON
NIGHT AS THE UPPER TROUGH CONTINUES TO DEEPEN...AND SFC LOW LIFTS NE
ACROSS SERN SECTIONS OF THE STATE. A COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS
SFC LOW WILL THEN DROP SE ACROSS THE STATE ON TUE...WITH MUCH COLDER
AIR MOVING INTO AR.

TUE HIGH TEMPS WILL LIKELY BE EARLY IN THE DAY AS THE FRONT WILL BE
MOVING THROUGH THE STATE BY MIDDAY. AS A RESULT...WILL SEE TEMPS
DROPPING FOR MOST LOCATIONS THROUGHOUT THE DAY ON TUE...WITH THE
ONLY EXCEPTION PROBABLY BEING SERN SECTIONS OF THE STATE WHERE THE
FRONT WILL BE LAST TO MOVE THROUGH. INITIALLY...TEMPS WILL BE IN THE
50S LATE MON NIGHT INTO TUE...BUT WILL LIKELY SEE TEMPS DROP INTO
THE 30S BY TUE EVENING ACROSS NWRN SECTIONS OF THE STATE. AT THE
SAME TIME...THE UPPER LOW TO THE WEST OF AR WILL CONTINUE TO
DEEPEN...AND POTENTIALLY BECOME CLOSED OFF FROM THE MAIN UPPER FLOW.
THIS SETUP WILL ONLY ENHANCE THE COOLING TREND FOR TUE NIGHT INTO
WED...AS WELL AS PROVIDING SOME ADDITIONAL ENERGY FOR ANOTHER WAVE
OF PRECIP.

DEPENDING ON THE STRENGTH OF THE COLD AIR INTRUSION TUE NIGHT INTO
WED MORNING...AND THE EXACT TRACK OF THE UPPER LEVEL LOW...THERE
LOOKS TO BE SOME INCREASING POTENTIAL FOR AT LEAST SOME BRIEF
SNOWFALL ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE CWA. AS ONE WOULD EXPECT...THERE
REMAINS SOME UNCERTAINTY REGARDING THE EXTENT OF THE COLD AIR...AND
WHAT MOISTURE WILL REMAIN...AS WELL AS THE EXACT TRACK OF THIS UPPER
LOW AS IT MOVES ACROSS THE REGION. GIVEN THE RECENT TREND TO HIGHER
MOISTURE LEVELS...STRONGER UPPER LEVEL FORCING...AND COLDER
TEMPS...HAVE STARTED TO INTRODUCE A BIT HIGHER CHANCE FOR SOME
WINTRY PRECIP TUE NIGHT INTO WED. WHILE THE OVERALL TEMP PROFILE
WILL SUPPORT GENERALLY ALL SNOW...THE FORECAST SOUNDINGS KEEP A
SIGNIFICANT WARM LAYER NEAR THE SFC. THIS WOULD TEND TO SUGGEST A
COLD RAIN...MIXING WITH SOME VERY WET SNOW. AS A RESULT...ONLY
MENTION LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS OF LESS THAN AN INCH FOR STORM TOTAL.
GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTIES MENTIONED ABOVE HOWEVER...THESE AMOUNTS WILL
LIKELY CHANGE OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS.

NEW DATA OVER THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HRS WILL DEFINITELY DIMINISH SOME OF
THE UNCERTAINTIES MENTIONED ABOVE...ESPECIALLY SINCE THE STORM
SYSTEM THAT WILL EVENTUALLY MOVE ACROSS THE REGION WILL BE BETTER
SAMPLED BY OBSERVED DATA AS IT MOVES ONSHORE OVER THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST. AS ALWAYS...REFER TO THE LATEST FORECASTS AND DATA IN THE
NEXT FEW DAYS AS CHANGES IN THE STORM LOCATION AND STRENGTH COULD
RESULT IN SOME POTENTIAL IMPACTS FOR THE CHRISTMAS EVE TRAVEL.

LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY

HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO
THURSDAY. WINDS WILL COME BACK AROUND TO THE SOUTHWEST...WITH
READINGS WARMING INTO THE 50S TO NEAR 60 ON CHRISTMAS DAY. THE HIGH
WILL HEAD EAST BY FRIDAY...WITH RAIN COMING BACK INTO THE FORECAST
AS A FRONT MOVES THROUGH ARKANSAS. THE FRONT SHOULD CLEAR THE AREA
BY EARLY SATURDAY...WITH COLDER AND DRIER AIR FOLLOWING.
&&

.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&

$$

AVIATION...57




000
FXUS64 KLZK 211126 AAA
AFDLZK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
526 AM CST SUN DEC 21 2014

.AVIATION...
MARGINAL VFR CONDITIONS WILL GRADUALLY IMPROVE BY MID DAY. WINDS
WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE. STRATOCU AND PATCHY FOG WILL DEVELOP
AGAIN TONIGHT...RESTRICTING CONDITIONS MOSTLY AFTER 06Z. TAFS
ALREADY OUT.
&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 207 AM CST SUN DEC 21 2014/

SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY

SOME BREAKS IN THE CLOUD COVER HAVE FINALLY BEEN SEEN FOR PORTIONS
OF THE CWA AS OF THIS PAST SAT AFTERNOON...AND HAVE PERSISTED INTO
THE OVERNIGHT HRS THIS MORNING. HOWEVER...THE WRN AND NWRN PARTS OF
THE CWA ARE STILL SEEING PERSISTENT CLOUD COVER. NOT EXPECTING A
WHOLE LOT OF CHANGE THROUGH THIS SUN REGARDING OVERALL CLOUD COVER
AS LOCATIONS ACROSS NWRN PORTIONS OF THE CWA MAY REMAIN GENERALLY
CLOUDY. FURTHER SOUTH AND EAST...SHOULD SEE SOME SUNSHINE THROUGH
THE DAY...THOUGH WILL LIKELY START TO SEE INCREASING CLOUDS THIS
AFTERNOON AND ESPECIALLY THIS EVENING.

FLOW ALOFT WILL BE GENERALLY FROM THE SW OVER THE REGION ...BUT WILL
BEGIN TO SEE SOME WEAK DISTURBANCES ALOFT LIFT OVER THE STATE BY
THIS EVENING INTO MON. THIS WILL BRING A RETURN TO THE WIDESPREAD
CLOUD COVER...AS WELL AS ENOUGH LIFT TO SEE SOME DZ OR SPRINKLES
OVERNIGHT TONIGHT. A TROUGH TO THE WEST AND NW OF THE STATE WILL
BEGIN DEEPENING ON MON...WITH SRLY FLOW INCREASING ACROSS THE REGION
AS SFC LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS ACROSS TX AND STARTS LIFTING TOWARDS
AR. AS A RESULT...START INCREASING POPS ON MON AND ESPECIALLY MON
NIGHT AS THE UPPER TROUGH CONTINUES TO DEEPEN...AND SFC LOW LIFTS NE
ACROSS SERN SECTIONS OF THE STATE. A COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS
SFC LOW WILL THEN DROP SE ACROSS THE STATE ON TUE...WITH MUCH COLDER
AIR MOVING INTO AR.

TUE HIGH TEMPS WILL LIKELY BE EARLY IN THE DAY AS THE FRONT WILL BE
MOVING THROUGH THE STATE BY MIDDAY. AS A RESULT...WILL SEE TEMPS
DROPPING FOR MOST LOCATIONS THROUGHOUT THE DAY ON TUE...WITH THE
ONLY EXCEPTION PROBABLY BEING SERN SECTIONS OF THE STATE WHERE THE
FRONT WILL BE LAST TO MOVE THROUGH. INITIALLY...TEMPS WILL BE IN THE
50S LATE MON NIGHT INTO TUE...BUT WILL LIKELY SEE TEMPS DROP INTO
THE 30S BY TUE EVENING ACROSS NWRN SECTIONS OF THE STATE. AT THE
SAME TIME...THE UPPER LOW TO THE WEST OF AR WILL CONTINUE TO
DEEPEN...AND POTENTIALLY BECOME CLOSED OFF FROM THE MAIN UPPER FLOW.
THIS SETUP WILL ONLY ENHANCE THE COOLING TREND FOR TUE NIGHT INTO
WED...AS WELL AS PROVIDING SOME ADDITIONAL ENERGY FOR ANOTHER WAVE
OF PRECIP.

DEPENDING ON THE STRENGTH OF THE COLD AIR INTRUSION TUE NIGHT INTO
WED MORNING...AND THE EXACT TRACK OF THE UPPER LEVEL LOW...THERE
LOOKS TO BE SOME INCREASING POTENTIAL FOR AT LEAST SOME BRIEF
SNOWFALL ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE CWA. AS ONE WOULD EXPECT...THERE
REMAINS SOME UNCERTAINTY REGARDING THE EXTENT OF THE COLD AIR...AND
WHAT MOISTURE WILL REMAIN...AS WELL AS THE EXACT TRACK OF THIS UPPER
LOW AS IT MOVES ACROSS THE REGION. GIVEN THE RECENT TREND TO HIGHER
MOISTURE LEVELS...STRONGER UPPER LEVEL FORCING...AND COLDER
TEMPS...HAVE STARTED TO INTRODUCE A BIT HIGHER CHANCE FOR SOME
WINTRY PRECIP TUE NIGHT INTO WED. WHILE THE OVERALL TEMP PROFILE
WILL SUPPORT GENERALLY ALL SNOW...THE FORECAST SOUNDINGS KEEP A
SIGNIFICANT WARM LAYER NEAR THE SFC. THIS WOULD TEND TO SUGGEST A
COLD RAIN...MIXING WITH SOME VERY WET SNOW. AS A RESULT...ONLY
MENTION LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS OF LESS THAN AN INCH FOR STORM TOTAL.
GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTIES MENTIONED ABOVE HOWEVER...THESE AMOUNTS WILL
LIKELY CHANGE OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS.

NEW DATA OVER THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HRS WILL DEFINITELY DIMINISH SOME OF
THE UNCERTAINTIES MENTIONED ABOVE...ESPECIALLY SINCE THE STORM
SYSTEM THAT WILL EVENTUALLY MOVE ACROSS THE REGION WILL BE BETTER
SAMPLED BY OBSERVED DATA AS IT MOVES ONSHORE OVER THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST. AS ALWAYS...REFER TO THE LATEST FORECASTS AND DATA IN THE
NEXT FEW DAYS AS CHANGES IN THE STORM LOCATION AND STRENGTH COULD
RESULT IN SOME POTENTIAL IMPACTS FOR THE CHRISTMAS EVE TRAVEL.

LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY

HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO
THURSDAY. WINDS WILL COME BACK AROUND TO THE SOUTHWEST...WITH
READINGS WARMING INTO THE 50S TO NEAR 60 ON CHRISTMAS DAY. THE HIGH
WILL HEAD EAST BY FRIDAY...WITH RAIN COMING BACK INTO THE FORECAST
AS A FRONT MOVES THROUGH ARKANSAS. THE FRONT SHOULD CLEAR THE AREA
BY EARLY SATURDAY...WITH COLDER AND DRIER AIR FOLLOWING.
&&

.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&

$$

AVIATION...57





000
FXUS64 KLZK 210807
AFDLZK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
207 AM CST SUN DEC 21 2014

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY

SOME BREAKS IN THE CLOUD COVER HAVE FINALLY BEEN SEEN FOR PORTIONS
OF THE CWA AS OF THIS PAST SAT AFTERNOON...AND HAVE PERSISTED INTO
THE OVERNIGHT HRS THIS MORNING. HOWEVER...THE WRN AND NWRN PARTS OF
THE CWA ARE STILL SEEING PERSISTENT CLOUD COVER. NOT EXPECTING A
WHOLE LOT OF CHANGE THROUGH THIS SUN REGARDING OVERALL CLOUD COVER
AS LOCATIONS ACROSS NWRN PORTIONS OF THE CWA MAY REMAIN GENERALLY
CLOUDY. FURTHER SOUTH AND EAST...SHOULD SEE SOME SUNSHINE THROUGH
THE DAY...THOUGH WILL LIKELY START TO SEE INCREASING CLOUDS THIS
AFTERNOON AND ESPECIALLY THIS EVENING.

FLOW ALOFT WILL BE GENERALLY FROM THE SW OVER THE REGION ...BUT WILL
BEGIN TO SEE SOME WEAK DISTURBANCES ALOFT LIFT OVER THE STATE BY
THIS EVENING INTO MON. THIS WILL BRING A RETURN TO THE WIDESPREAD
CLOUD COVER...AS WELL AS ENOUGH LIFT TO SEE SOME DZ OR SPRINKLES
OVERNIGHT TONIGHT. A TROUGH TO THE WEST AND NW OF THE STATE WILL
BEGIN DEEPENING ON MON...WITH SRLY FLOW INCREASING ACROSS THE REGION
AS SFC LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS ACROSS TX AND STARTS LIFTING TOWARDS
AR. AS A RESULT...START INCREASING POPS ON MON AND ESPECIALLY MON
NIGHT AS THE UPPER TROUGH CONTINUES TO DEEPEN...AND SFC LOW LIFTS NE
ACROSS SERN SECTIONS OF THE STATE. A COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS
SFC LOW WILL THEN DROP SE ACROSS THE STATE ON TUE...WITH MUCH COLDER
AIR MOVING INTO AR.

TUE HIGH TEMPS WILL LIKELY BE EARLY IN THE DAY AS THE FRONT WILL BE
MOVING THROUGH THE STATE BY MIDDAY. AS A RESULT...WILL SEE TEMPS
DROPPING FOR MOST LOCATIONS THROUGHOUT THE DAY ON TUE...WITH THE
ONLY EXCEPTION PROBABLY BEING SERN SECTIONS OF THE STATE WHERE THE
FRONT WILL BE LAST TO MOVE THROUGH. INITIALLY...TEMPS WILL BE IN THE
50S LATE MON NIGHT INTO TUE...BUT WILL LIKELY SEE TEMPS DROP INTO
THE 30S BY TUE EVENING ACROSS NWRN SECTIONS OF THE STATE. AT THE
SAME TIME...THE UPPER LOW TO THE WEST OF AR WILL CONTINUE TO
DEEPEN...AND POTENTIALLY BECOME CLOSED OFF FROM THE MAIN UPPER FLOW.
THIS SETUP WILL ONLY ENHANCE THE COOLING TREND FOR TUE NIGHT INTO
WED...AS WELL AS PROVIDING SOME ADDITIONAL ENERGY FOR ANOTHER WAVE
OF PRECIP.

DEPENDING ON THE STRENGTH OF THE COLD AIR INTRUSION TUE NIGHT INTO
WED MORNING...AND THE EXACT TRACK OF THE UPPER LEVEL LOW...THERE
LOOKS TO BE SOME INCREASING POTENTIAL FOR AT LEAST SOME BRIEF
SNOWFALL ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE CWA. AS ONE WOULD EXPECT...THERE
REMAINS SOME UNCERTAINTY REGARDING THE EXTENT OF THE COLD AIR...AND
WHAT MOISTURE WILL REMAIN...AS WELL AS THE EXACT TRACK OF THIS UPPER
LOW AS IT MOVES ACROSS THE REGION. GIVEN THE RECENT TREND TO HIGHER
MOISTURE LEVELS...STRONGER UPPER LEVEL FORCING...AND COLDER
TEMPS...HAVE STARTED TO INTRODUCE A BIT HIGHER CHANCE FOR SOME
WINTRY PRECIP TUE NIGHT INTO WED. WHILE THE OVERALL TEMP PROFILE
WILL SUPPORT GENERALLY ALL SNOW...THE FORECAST SOUNDINGS KEEP A
SIGNIFICANT WARM LAYER NEAR THE SFC. THIS WOULD TEND TO SUGGEST A
COLD RAIN...MIXING WITH SOME VERY WET SNOW. AS A RESULT...ONLY
MENTION LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS OF LESS THAN AN INCH FOR STORM TOTAL.
GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTIES MENTIONED ABOVE HOWEVER...THESE AMOUNTS WILL
LIKELY CHANGE OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS.

NEW DATA OVER THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HRS WILL DEFINITELY DIMINISH SOME OF
THE UNCERTAINTIES MENTIONED ABOVE...ESPECIALLY SINCE THE STORM
SYSTEM THAT WILL EVENTUALLY MOVE ACROSS THE REGION WILL BE BETTER
SAMPLED BY OBSERVED DATA AS IT MOVES ONSHORE OVER THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST. AS ALWAYS...REFER TO THE LATEST FORECASTS AND DATA IN THE
NEXT FEW DAYS AS CHANGES IN THE STORM LOCATION AND STRENGTH COULD
RESULT IN SOME POTENTIAL IMPACTS FOR THE CHRISTMAS EVE TRAVEL.

&&

.LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY

HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO
THURSDAY. WINDS WILL COME BACK AROUND TO THE SOUTHWEST...WITH
READINGS WARMING INTO THE 50S TO NEAR 60 ON CHRISTMAS DAY. THE HIGH
WILL HEAD EAST BY FRIDAY...WITH RAIN COMING BACK INTO THE FORECAST
AS A FRONT MOVES THROUGH ARKANSAS. THE FRONT SHOULD CLEAR THE AREA
BY EARLY SATURDAY...WITH COLDER AND DRIER AIR FOLLOWING.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BATESVILLE AR     50  39  54  46 /  10  10  30  50
CAMDEN AR         57  43  61  53 /  10  10  20  50
HARRISON AR       48  38  53  40 /  10  10  30  50
HOT SPRINGS AR    54  42  57  47 /  10  10  20  50
LITTLE ROCK   AR  53  41  57  50 /  10  10  20  50
MONTICELLO AR     56  44  61  56 /  10  10  20  50
MOUNT IDA AR      53  43  56  45 /  10  10  20  50
MOUNTAIN HOME AR  49  39  54  42 /  10  10  30  50
NEWPORT AR        51  39  55  48 /  10  10  20  50
PINE BLUFF AR     54  41  59  53 /  10  10  20  50
RUSSELLVILLE AR   53  41  56  45 /  10  10  30  50
SEARCY AR         51  38  55  48 /  10  10  20  50
STUTTGART AR      53  40  58  51 /  10  10  20  50
&&

.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...62 / LONG TERM...57





000
FXUS64 KLZK 210807
AFDLZK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
207 AM CST SUN DEC 21 2014

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY

SOME BREAKS IN THE CLOUD COVER HAVE FINALLY BEEN SEEN FOR PORTIONS
OF THE CWA AS OF THIS PAST SAT AFTERNOON...AND HAVE PERSISTED INTO
THE OVERNIGHT HRS THIS MORNING. HOWEVER...THE WRN AND NWRN PARTS OF
THE CWA ARE STILL SEEING PERSISTENT CLOUD COVER. NOT EXPECTING A
WHOLE LOT OF CHANGE THROUGH THIS SUN REGARDING OVERALL CLOUD COVER
AS LOCATIONS ACROSS NWRN PORTIONS OF THE CWA MAY REMAIN GENERALLY
CLOUDY. FURTHER SOUTH AND EAST...SHOULD SEE SOME SUNSHINE THROUGH
THE DAY...THOUGH WILL LIKELY START TO SEE INCREASING CLOUDS THIS
AFTERNOON AND ESPECIALLY THIS EVENING.

FLOW ALOFT WILL BE GENERALLY FROM THE SW OVER THE REGION ...BUT WILL
BEGIN TO SEE SOME WEAK DISTURBANCES ALOFT LIFT OVER THE STATE BY
THIS EVENING INTO MON. THIS WILL BRING A RETURN TO THE WIDESPREAD
CLOUD COVER...AS WELL AS ENOUGH LIFT TO SEE SOME DZ OR SPRINKLES
OVERNIGHT TONIGHT. A TROUGH TO THE WEST AND NW OF THE STATE WILL
BEGIN DEEPENING ON MON...WITH SRLY FLOW INCREASING ACROSS THE REGION
AS SFC LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS ACROSS TX AND STARTS LIFTING TOWARDS
AR. AS A RESULT...START INCREASING POPS ON MON AND ESPECIALLY MON
NIGHT AS THE UPPER TROUGH CONTINUES TO DEEPEN...AND SFC LOW LIFTS NE
ACROSS SERN SECTIONS OF THE STATE. A COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS
SFC LOW WILL THEN DROP SE ACROSS THE STATE ON TUE...WITH MUCH COLDER
AIR MOVING INTO AR.

TUE HIGH TEMPS WILL LIKELY BE EARLY IN THE DAY AS THE FRONT WILL BE
MOVING THROUGH THE STATE BY MIDDAY. AS A RESULT...WILL SEE TEMPS
DROPPING FOR MOST LOCATIONS THROUGHOUT THE DAY ON TUE...WITH THE
ONLY EXCEPTION PROBABLY BEING SERN SECTIONS OF THE STATE WHERE THE
FRONT WILL BE LAST TO MOVE THROUGH. INITIALLY...TEMPS WILL BE IN THE
50S LATE MON NIGHT INTO TUE...BUT WILL LIKELY SEE TEMPS DROP INTO
THE 30S BY TUE EVENING ACROSS NWRN SECTIONS OF THE STATE. AT THE
SAME TIME...THE UPPER LOW TO THE WEST OF AR WILL CONTINUE TO
DEEPEN...AND POTENTIALLY BECOME CLOSED OFF FROM THE MAIN UPPER FLOW.
THIS SETUP WILL ONLY ENHANCE THE COOLING TREND FOR TUE NIGHT INTO
WED...AS WELL AS PROVIDING SOME ADDITIONAL ENERGY FOR ANOTHER WAVE
OF PRECIP.

DEPENDING ON THE STRENGTH OF THE COLD AIR INTRUSION TUE NIGHT INTO
WED MORNING...AND THE EXACT TRACK OF THE UPPER LEVEL LOW...THERE
LOOKS TO BE SOME INCREASING POTENTIAL FOR AT LEAST SOME BRIEF
SNOWFALL ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE CWA. AS ONE WOULD EXPECT...THERE
REMAINS SOME UNCERTAINTY REGARDING THE EXTENT OF THE COLD AIR...AND
WHAT MOISTURE WILL REMAIN...AS WELL AS THE EXACT TRACK OF THIS UPPER
LOW AS IT MOVES ACROSS THE REGION. GIVEN THE RECENT TREND TO HIGHER
MOISTURE LEVELS...STRONGER UPPER LEVEL FORCING...AND COLDER
TEMPS...HAVE STARTED TO INTRODUCE A BIT HIGHER CHANCE FOR SOME
WINTRY PRECIP TUE NIGHT INTO WED. WHILE THE OVERALL TEMP PROFILE
WILL SUPPORT GENERALLY ALL SNOW...THE FORECAST SOUNDINGS KEEP A
SIGNIFICANT WARM LAYER NEAR THE SFC. THIS WOULD TEND TO SUGGEST A
COLD RAIN...MIXING WITH SOME VERY WET SNOW. AS A RESULT...ONLY
MENTION LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS OF LESS THAN AN INCH FOR STORM TOTAL.
GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTIES MENTIONED ABOVE HOWEVER...THESE AMOUNTS WILL
LIKELY CHANGE OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS.

NEW DATA OVER THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HRS WILL DEFINITELY DIMINISH SOME OF
THE UNCERTAINTIES MENTIONED ABOVE...ESPECIALLY SINCE THE STORM
SYSTEM THAT WILL EVENTUALLY MOVE ACROSS THE REGION WILL BE BETTER
SAMPLED BY OBSERVED DATA AS IT MOVES ONSHORE OVER THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST. AS ALWAYS...REFER TO THE LATEST FORECASTS AND DATA IN THE
NEXT FEW DAYS AS CHANGES IN THE STORM LOCATION AND STRENGTH COULD
RESULT IN SOME POTENTIAL IMPACTS FOR THE CHRISTMAS EVE TRAVEL.

&&

.LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY

HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO
THURSDAY. WINDS WILL COME BACK AROUND TO THE SOUTHWEST...WITH
READINGS WARMING INTO THE 50S TO NEAR 60 ON CHRISTMAS DAY. THE HIGH
WILL HEAD EAST BY FRIDAY...WITH RAIN COMING BACK INTO THE FORECAST
AS A FRONT MOVES THROUGH ARKANSAS. THE FRONT SHOULD CLEAR THE AREA
BY EARLY SATURDAY...WITH COLDER AND DRIER AIR FOLLOWING.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BATESVILLE AR     50  39  54  46 /  10  10  30  50
CAMDEN AR         57  43  61  53 /  10  10  20  50
HARRISON AR       48  38  53  40 /  10  10  30  50
HOT SPRINGS AR    54  42  57  47 /  10  10  20  50
LITTLE ROCK   AR  53  41  57  50 /  10  10  20  50
MONTICELLO AR     56  44  61  56 /  10  10  20  50
MOUNT IDA AR      53  43  56  45 /  10  10  20  50
MOUNTAIN HOME AR  49  39  54  42 /  10  10  30  50
NEWPORT AR        51  39  55  48 /  10  10  20  50
PINE BLUFF AR     54  41  59  53 /  10  10  20  50
RUSSELLVILLE AR   53  41  56  45 /  10  10  30  50
SEARCY AR         51  38  55  48 /  10  10  20  50
STUTTGART AR      53  40  58  51 /  10  10  20  50
&&

.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...62 / LONG TERM...57






000
FXUS64 KLZK 210454
AFDLZK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
1054 PM CST SAT DEC 20 2014

.AVIATION...
CLOUDS HAVE ERODED OVER THE SOUTHEAST PART OF THE STATE AND ARE
BREAKING UP ELSEWHERE. THE LAST AREAS TO SEE CLEARING WILL BE THE
OZARK AND OUACHITA MOUNTAINS. MVFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT KHRO
AND KBPK WITH VFR CONDITIONS LIKELY ELSEWHERE ALTHOUGH BRIEF MVFR
CONDITIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE AROUND SUNRISE. MOISTURE WILL BEGIN TO
RETURN VERY LATE IN THE PERIOD. GENERALLY WINDS WILL BE FROM THE
EAST TO SOUTHEAST AND ON THE LIGHT SIDE BEFORE TURNING MORE FROM THE
SOUTHEAST AND INCREASING SLIGHTLY.

&&

SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT

TODAY...CLOUDS HAVE BEGUN TO ERODE ACROSS MUCH OF SOUTHEASTERN AND
EASTERN ARKANSAS THIS AFTERNOON AND EXPECT PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES TO
CONTINUE THROUGH THE NIGHT TONIGHT.  CLOUDS WILL HANG TOUGH ACROSS
THE WESTERN HALF OF THE STATE DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS ALLOWING
FOR COMPARATIVELY WARMER OVERNIGHT LOW TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE
WESTERN HALF OF THE STATE. DID NOT INCLUDE IT IN THE FORECAST...BUT
THE DEVELOPMENT OF FOG ACROSS WESTERN ARKANSAS WILL NEED TO BE
MONITORED.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL DEPART TO THE EAST ON SUNDAY BRINGING A RETURN OF
WARM SOUTHERLY FLOW AND INCREASED MOISTURE. IN THE SHORT
TERM...SUNDAY LOOKS LIKE THE BEST DAY FOR ARKANSANS TO SEE THE SUN
WITH CLOUDS INCREASING FROM WEST TO EAST THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS
ON SUNDAY NIGHT.

THIS SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL ALLOW FOR WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ON
MONDAY. DID SLIGHTLY UNDERCUT GUIDANCE ON THE HIGH TEMPS...YET DID
TREND THE FORECAST A BIT WARMER. STRONG SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL KEEP
OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES ABOVE NORMAL MONDAY NIGHT AS WELL.

PRECIPITATION CHANCES RETURN TO THE FORECAST MONDAY NIGHT AS SURFACE
LOW PRESSURE TRACKS TO THE NORTH OF ARKANSAS AND WILL EVENTUALLY
DRAG ITS ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT THROUGH THE STATE. FORECAST SOUNDINGS
DO SHOW THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE AHEAD OF THE FRONT MONDAY
NIGHT AND INTO TUESDAY...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST WHERE
INSTABILITY WILL BE GREATEST. HIGH TEMPERATURES ON TUESDAY WILL
OCCUR DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS AND DECREASE THROUGH THE DAY
WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE COLD FRONT.

BEHIND THE FRONT A DEEP UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL DIG INTO THE REGION
AND BRING COLD AIR ALOFT. MODELS DISAGREE ON THE AMOUNT OF COLD AIR
THAT WILL BE IN PLACE AS WELL AS HOW MUCH POST FRONTAL AVAILABLE
MOISTURE THERE WILL BE. ECMWF AND NAM ARE THE DRIEST OF THE
SOLUTIONS...WHILE THE GFS IS THE COLDEST AND WETTEST. AT THIS
TIME...WILL CONTINUE MONITORING THE GFS...HOWEVER DO CONSIDER IT THE
OUTLIER. THIS WILL CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED IN FUTURE FORECASTS.

LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY

A POWERFUL STORM SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE STRENGTHENING OVER THE GREAT
LAKES WEDNESDAY...WITH A SECONDARY SYSTEM FORMING OVER THE
MID-ATLANTIC COAST AND TRACKING TOWARD NEW ENGLAND. ON THE BACK SIDE
OF THIS DOUBLE BARREL SYSTEM...BREEZY CONDITIONS AND NEAR/SLIGHTLY
BELOW SEASONAL TEMPERATURES WILL BE NOTED. SNOW FLURRIES WILL BE
POSSIBLE EARLY IN THE DAY IN THE NORTHEAST.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL FOLLOW THE SYSTEM...BUT WILL QUICKLY EXIT INTO
THE GULF OF MEXICO CHRISTMAS DAY. CLOCKWISE FLOW AROUND THE HIGH
WILL BRING SOUTHERLY WINDS AND WARMER WEATHER/ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES. THE WARMUP WILL BE IN ADVANCE OF A NEW COLD FRONT
IN THE PLAINS.

THE FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH THE REGION FRIDAY/FRIDAY EVENING WITH
CHANCES FOR SHOWERS. COLD/DRY AIR WILL FOLLOW...BUT THIS DOES NOT
APPEAR DRASTIC. TEMPERATURES SATURDAY WILL BE SUBPAR BY ONLY A FEW
DEGREES.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BATESVILLE AR     31  49  38  54 /   0  10  10  30
CAMDEN AR         35  55  40  63 /   0  10  10  20
HARRISON AR       34  48  38  56 /  10  10  10  30
HOT SPRINGS AR    35  52  40  58 /  10  10  10  20
LITTLE ROCK   AR  34  52  40  60 /   0  10  10  20
MONTICELLO AR     35  55  42  63 /   0  10  10  20
MOUNT IDA AR      34  51  40  59 /  10  10  10  20
MOUNTAIN HOME AR  34  49  38  56 /  10  10  10  30
NEWPORT AR        31  49  39  54 /   0  10  10  20
PINE BLUFF AR     34  52  40  62 /   0  10  10  20
RUSSELLVILLE AR   36  52  39  57 /  10  10  10  30
SEARCY AR         31  49  36  54 /   0  10  10  20
STUTTGART AR      32  51  40  60 /   0  10  10  20
&&

.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&

$$


AVIATION...56





000
FXUS64 KLZK 210454
AFDLZK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
1054 PM CST SAT DEC 20 2014

.AVIATION...
CLOUDS HAVE ERODED OVER THE SOUTHEAST PART OF THE STATE AND ARE
BREAKING UP ELSEWHERE. THE LAST AREAS TO SEE CLEARING WILL BE THE
OZARK AND OUACHITA MOUNTAINS. MVFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT KHRO
AND KBPK WITH VFR CONDITIONS LIKELY ELSEWHERE ALTHOUGH BRIEF MVFR
CONDITIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE AROUND SUNRISE. MOISTURE WILL BEGIN TO
RETURN VERY LATE IN THE PERIOD. GENERALLY WINDS WILL BE FROM THE
EAST TO SOUTHEAST AND ON THE LIGHT SIDE BEFORE TURNING MORE FROM THE
SOUTHEAST AND INCREASING SLIGHTLY.

&&

SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT

TODAY...CLOUDS HAVE BEGUN TO ERODE ACROSS MUCH OF SOUTHEASTERN AND
EASTERN ARKANSAS THIS AFTERNOON AND EXPECT PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES TO
CONTINUE THROUGH THE NIGHT TONIGHT.  CLOUDS WILL HANG TOUGH ACROSS
THE WESTERN HALF OF THE STATE DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS ALLOWING
FOR COMPARATIVELY WARMER OVERNIGHT LOW TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE
WESTERN HALF OF THE STATE. DID NOT INCLUDE IT IN THE FORECAST...BUT
THE DEVELOPMENT OF FOG ACROSS WESTERN ARKANSAS WILL NEED TO BE
MONITORED.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL DEPART TO THE EAST ON SUNDAY BRINGING A RETURN OF
WARM SOUTHERLY FLOW AND INCREASED MOISTURE. IN THE SHORT
TERM...SUNDAY LOOKS LIKE THE BEST DAY FOR ARKANSANS TO SEE THE SUN
WITH CLOUDS INCREASING FROM WEST TO EAST THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS
ON SUNDAY NIGHT.

THIS SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL ALLOW FOR WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ON
MONDAY. DID SLIGHTLY UNDERCUT GUIDANCE ON THE HIGH TEMPS...YET DID
TREND THE FORECAST A BIT WARMER. STRONG SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL KEEP
OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES ABOVE NORMAL MONDAY NIGHT AS WELL.

PRECIPITATION CHANCES RETURN TO THE FORECAST MONDAY NIGHT AS SURFACE
LOW PRESSURE TRACKS TO THE NORTH OF ARKANSAS AND WILL EVENTUALLY
DRAG ITS ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT THROUGH THE STATE. FORECAST SOUNDINGS
DO SHOW THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE AHEAD OF THE FRONT MONDAY
NIGHT AND INTO TUESDAY...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST WHERE
INSTABILITY WILL BE GREATEST. HIGH TEMPERATURES ON TUESDAY WILL
OCCUR DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS AND DECREASE THROUGH THE DAY
WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE COLD FRONT.

BEHIND THE FRONT A DEEP UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL DIG INTO THE REGION
AND BRING COLD AIR ALOFT. MODELS DISAGREE ON THE AMOUNT OF COLD AIR
THAT WILL BE IN PLACE AS WELL AS HOW MUCH POST FRONTAL AVAILABLE
MOISTURE THERE WILL BE. ECMWF AND NAM ARE THE DRIEST OF THE
SOLUTIONS...WHILE THE GFS IS THE COLDEST AND WETTEST. AT THIS
TIME...WILL CONTINUE MONITORING THE GFS...HOWEVER DO CONSIDER IT THE
OUTLIER. THIS WILL CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED IN FUTURE FORECASTS.

LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY

A POWERFUL STORM SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE STRENGTHENING OVER THE GREAT
LAKES WEDNESDAY...WITH A SECONDARY SYSTEM FORMING OVER THE
MID-ATLANTIC COAST AND TRACKING TOWARD NEW ENGLAND. ON THE BACK SIDE
OF THIS DOUBLE BARREL SYSTEM...BREEZY CONDITIONS AND NEAR/SLIGHTLY
BELOW SEASONAL TEMPERATURES WILL BE NOTED. SNOW FLURRIES WILL BE
POSSIBLE EARLY IN THE DAY IN THE NORTHEAST.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL FOLLOW THE SYSTEM...BUT WILL QUICKLY EXIT INTO
THE GULF OF MEXICO CHRISTMAS DAY. CLOCKWISE FLOW AROUND THE HIGH
WILL BRING SOUTHERLY WINDS AND WARMER WEATHER/ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES. THE WARMUP WILL BE IN ADVANCE OF A NEW COLD FRONT
IN THE PLAINS.

THE FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH THE REGION FRIDAY/FRIDAY EVENING WITH
CHANCES FOR SHOWERS. COLD/DRY AIR WILL FOLLOW...BUT THIS DOES NOT
APPEAR DRASTIC. TEMPERATURES SATURDAY WILL BE SUBPAR BY ONLY A FEW
DEGREES.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BATESVILLE AR     31  49  38  54 /   0  10  10  30
CAMDEN AR         35  55  40  63 /   0  10  10  20
HARRISON AR       34  48  38  56 /  10  10  10  30
HOT SPRINGS AR    35  52  40  58 /  10  10  10  20
LITTLE ROCK   AR  34  52  40  60 /   0  10  10  20
MONTICELLO AR     35  55  42  63 /   0  10  10  20
MOUNT IDA AR      34  51  40  59 /  10  10  10  20
MOUNTAIN HOME AR  34  49  38  56 /  10  10  10  30
NEWPORT AR        31  49  39  54 /   0  10  10  20
PINE BLUFF AR     34  52  40  62 /   0  10  10  20
RUSSELLVILLE AR   36  52  39  57 /  10  10  10  30
SEARCY AR         31  49  36  54 /   0  10  10  20
STUTTGART AR      32  51  40  60 /   0  10  10  20
&&

.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&

$$


AVIATION...56





000
FXUS64 KLZK 210454
AFDLZK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
1054 PM CST SAT DEC 20 2014

.AVIATION...
CLOUDS HAVE ERODED OVER THE SOUTHEAST PART OF THE STATE AND ARE
BREAKING UP ELSEWHERE. THE LAST AREAS TO SEE CLEARING WILL BE THE
OZARK AND OUACHITA MOUNTAINS. MVFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT KHRO
AND KBPK WITH VFR CONDITIONS LIKELY ELSEWHERE ALTHOUGH BRIEF MVFR
CONDITIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE AROUND SUNRISE. MOISTURE WILL BEGIN TO
RETURN VERY LATE IN THE PERIOD. GENERALLY WINDS WILL BE FROM THE
EAST TO SOUTHEAST AND ON THE LIGHT SIDE BEFORE TURNING MORE FROM THE
SOUTHEAST AND INCREASING SLIGHTLY.

&&

SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT

TODAY...CLOUDS HAVE BEGUN TO ERODE ACROSS MUCH OF SOUTHEASTERN AND
EASTERN ARKANSAS THIS AFTERNOON AND EXPECT PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES TO
CONTINUE THROUGH THE NIGHT TONIGHT.  CLOUDS WILL HANG TOUGH ACROSS
THE WESTERN HALF OF THE STATE DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS ALLOWING
FOR COMPARATIVELY WARMER OVERNIGHT LOW TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE
WESTERN HALF OF THE STATE. DID NOT INCLUDE IT IN THE FORECAST...BUT
THE DEVELOPMENT OF FOG ACROSS WESTERN ARKANSAS WILL NEED TO BE
MONITORED.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL DEPART TO THE EAST ON SUNDAY BRINGING A RETURN OF
WARM SOUTHERLY FLOW AND INCREASED MOISTURE. IN THE SHORT
TERM...SUNDAY LOOKS LIKE THE BEST DAY FOR ARKANSANS TO SEE THE SUN
WITH CLOUDS INCREASING FROM WEST TO EAST THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS
ON SUNDAY NIGHT.

THIS SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL ALLOW FOR WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ON
MONDAY. DID SLIGHTLY UNDERCUT GUIDANCE ON THE HIGH TEMPS...YET DID
TREND THE FORECAST A BIT WARMER. STRONG SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL KEEP
OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES ABOVE NORMAL MONDAY NIGHT AS WELL.

PRECIPITATION CHANCES RETURN TO THE FORECAST MONDAY NIGHT AS SURFACE
LOW PRESSURE TRACKS TO THE NORTH OF ARKANSAS AND WILL EVENTUALLY
DRAG ITS ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT THROUGH THE STATE. FORECAST SOUNDINGS
DO SHOW THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE AHEAD OF THE FRONT MONDAY
NIGHT AND INTO TUESDAY...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST WHERE
INSTABILITY WILL BE GREATEST. HIGH TEMPERATURES ON TUESDAY WILL
OCCUR DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS AND DECREASE THROUGH THE DAY
WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE COLD FRONT.

BEHIND THE FRONT A DEEP UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL DIG INTO THE REGION
AND BRING COLD AIR ALOFT. MODELS DISAGREE ON THE AMOUNT OF COLD AIR
THAT WILL BE IN PLACE AS WELL AS HOW MUCH POST FRONTAL AVAILABLE
MOISTURE THERE WILL BE. ECMWF AND NAM ARE THE DRIEST OF THE
SOLUTIONS...WHILE THE GFS IS THE COLDEST AND WETTEST. AT THIS
TIME...WILL CONTINUE MONITORING THE GFS...HOWEVER DO CONSIDER IT THE
OUTLIER. THIS WILL CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED IN FUTURE FORECASTS.

LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY

A POWERFUL STORM SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE STRENGTHENING OVER THE GREAT
LAKES WEDNESDAY...WITH A SECONDARY SYSTEM FORMING OVER THE
MID-ATLANTIC COAST AND TRACKING TOWARD NEW ENGLAND. ON THE BACK SIDE
OF THIS DOUBLE BARREL SYSTEM...BREEZY CONDITIONS AND NEAR/SLIGHTLY
BELOW SEASONAL TEMPERATURES WILL BE NOTED. SNOW FLURRIES WILL BE
POSSIBLE EARLY IN THE DAY IN THE NORTHEAST.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL FOLLOW THE SYSTEM...BUT WILL QUICKLY EXIT INTO
THE GULF OF MEXICO CHRISTMAS DAY. CLOCKWISE FLOW AROUND THE HIGH
WILL BRING SOUTHERLY WINDS AND WARMER WEATHER/ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES. THE WARMUP WILL BE IN ADVANCE OF A NEW COLD FRONT
IN THE PLAINS.

THE FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH THE REGION FRIDAY/FRIDAY EVENING WITH
CHANCES FOR SHOWERS. COLD/DRY AIR WILL FOLLOW...BUT THIS DOES NOT
APPEAR DRASTIC. TEMPERATURES SATURDAY WILL BE SUBPAR BY ONLY A FEW
DEGREES.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BATESVILLE AR     31  49  38  54 /   0  10  10  30
CAMDEN AR         35  55  40  63 /   0  10  10  20
HARRISON AR       34  48  38  56 /  10  10  10  30
HOT SPRINGS AR    35  52  40  58 /  10  10  10  20
LITTLE ROCK   AR  34  52  40  60 /   0  10  10  20
MONTICELLO AR     35  55  42  63 /   0  10  10  20
MOUNT IDA AR      34  51  40  59 /  10  10  10  20
MOUNTAIN HOME AR  34  49  38  56 /  10  10  10  30
NEWPORT AR        31  49  39  54 /   0  10  10  20
PINE BLUFF AR     34  52  40  62 /   0  10  10  20
RUSSELLVILLE AR   36  52  39  57 /  10  10  10  30
SEARCY AR         31  49  36  54 /   0  10  10  20
STUTTGART AR      32  51  40  60 /   0  10  10  20
&&

.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&

$$


AVIATION...56






000
FXUS64 KLZK 210454
AFDLZK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
1054 PM CST SAT DEC 20 2014

.AVIATION...
CLOUDS HAVE ERODED OVER THE SOUTHEAST PART OF THE STATE AND ARE
BREAKING UP ELSEWHERE. THE LAST AREAS TO SEE CLEARING WILL BE THE
OZARK AND OUACHITA MOUNTAINS. MVFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT KHRO
AND KBPK WITH VFR CONDITIONS LIKELY ELSEWHERE ALTHOUGH BRIEF MVFR
CONDITIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE AROUND SUNRISE. MOISTURE WILL BEGIN TO
RETURN VERY LATE IN THE PERIOD. GENERALLY WINDS WILL BE FROM THE
EAST TO SOUTHEAST AND ON THE LIGHT SIDE BEFORE TURNING MORE FROM THE
SOUTHEAST AND INCREASING SLIGHTLY.

&&

SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT

TODAY...CLOUDS HAVE BEGUN TO ERODE ACROSS MUCH OF SOUTHEASTERN AND
EASTERN ARKANSAS THIS AFTERNOON AND EXPECT PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES TO
CONTINUE THROUGH THE NIGHT TONIGHT.  CLOUDS WILL HANG TOUGH ACROSS
THE WESTERN HALF OF THE STATE DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS ALLOWING
FOR COMPARATIVELY WARMER OVERNIGHT LOW TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE
WESTERN HALF OF THE STATE. DID NOT INCLUDE IT IN THE FORECAST...BUT
THE DEVELOPMENT OF FOG ACROSS WESTERN ARKANSAS WILL NEED TO BE
MONITORED.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL DEPART TO THE EAST ON SUNDAY BRINGING A RETURN OF
WARM SOUTHERLY FLOW AND INCREASED MOISTURE. IN THE SHORT
TERM...SUNDAY LOOKS LIKE THE BEST DAY FOR ARKANSANS TO SEE THE SUN
WITH CLOUDS INCREASING FROM WEST TO EAST THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS
ON SUNDAY NIGHT.

THIS SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL ALLOW FOR WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ON
MONDAY. DID SLIGHTLY UNDERCUT GUIDANCE ON THE HIGH TEMPS...YET DID
TREND THE FORECAST A BIT WARMER. STRONG SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL KEEP
OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES ABOVE NORMAL MONDAY NIGHT AS WELL.

PRECIPITATION CHANCES RETURN TO THE FORECAST MONDAY NIGHT AS SURFACE
LOW PRESSURE TRACKS TO THE NORTH OF ARKANSAS AND WILL EVENTUALLY
DRAG ITS ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT THROUGH THE STATE. FORECAST SOUNDINGS
DO SHOW THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE AHEAD OF THE FRONT MONDAY
NIGHT AND INTO TUESDAY...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST WHERE
INSTABILITY WILL BE GREATEST. HIGH TEMPERATURES ON TUESDAY WILL
OCCUR DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS AND DECREASE THROUGH THE DAY
WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE COLD FRONT.

BEHIND THE FRONT A DEEP UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL DIG INTO THE REGION
AND BRING COLD AIR ALOFT. MODELS DISAGREE ON THE AMOUNT OF COLD AIR
THAT WILL BE IN PLACE AS WELL AS HOW MUCH POST FRONTAL AVAILABLE
MOISTURE THERE WILL BE. ECMWF AND NAM ARE THE DRIEST OF THE
SOLUTIONS...WHILE THE GFS IS THE COLDEST AND WETTEST. AT THIS
TIME...WILL CONTINUE MONITORING THE GFS...HOWEVER DO CONSIDER IT THE
OUTLIER. THIS WILL CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED IN FUTURE FORECASTS.

LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY

A POWERFUL STORM SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE STRENGTHENING OVER THE GREAT
LAKES WEDNESDAY...WITH A SECONDARY SYSTEM FORMING OVER THE
MID-ATLANTIC COAST AND TRACKING TOWARD NEW ENGLAND. ON THE BACK SIDE
OF THIS DOUBLE BARREL SYSTEM...BREEZY CONDITIONS AND NEAR/SLIGHTLY
BELOW SEASONAL TEMPERATURES WILL BE NOTED. SNOW FLURRIES WILL BE
POSSIBLE EARLY IN THE DAY IN THE NORTHEAST.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL FOLLOW THE SYSTEM...BUT WILL QUICKLY EXIT INTO
THE GULF OF MEXICO CHRISTMAS DAY. CLOCKWISE FLOW AROUND THE HIGH
WILL BRING SOUTHERLY WINDS AND WARMER WEATHER/ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES. THE WARMUP WILL BE IN ADVANCE OF A NEW COLD FRONT
IN THE PLAINS.

THE FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH THE REGION FRIDAY/FRIDAY EVENING WITH
CHANCES FOR SHOWERS. COLD/DRY AIR WILL FOLLOW...BUT THIS DOES NOT
APPEAR DRASTIC. TEMPERATURES SATURDAY WILL BE SUBPAR BY ONLY A FEW
DEGREES.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BATESVILLE AR     31  49  38  54 /   0  10  10  30
CAMDEN AR         35  55  40  63 /   0  10  10  20
HARRISON AR       34  48  38  56 /  10  10  10  30
HOT SPRINGS AR    35  52  40  58 /  10  10  10  20
LITTLE ROCK   AR  34  52  40  60 /   0  10  10  20
MONTICELLO AR     35  55  42  63 /   0  10  10  20
MOUNT IDA AR      34  51  40  59 /  10  10  10  20
MOUNTAIN HOME AR  34  49  38  56 /  10  10  10  30
NEWPORT AR        31  49  39  54 /   0  10  10  20
PINE BLUFF AR     34  52  40  62 /   0  10  10  20
RUSSELLVILLE AR   36  52  39  57 /  10  10  10  30
SEARCY AR         31  49  36  54 /   0  10  10  20
STUTTGART AR      32  51  40  60 /   0  10  10  20
&&

.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&

$$


AVIATION...56






000
FXUS64 KLZK 210003
AFDLZK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
603 PM CST SAT DEC 20 2014

.AVIATION...
CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO ERODE ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION...WITH VFR
CONDITIONS THROUGH TONIGHT/EARLY SUNDAY. HOWEVER...LOW CLOUDS WILL
HANG ON IN PORTIONS OF THE OZARK AND OUACHITA MOUNTAINS OF THE
NORTH/WEST...WITH MVFR AND SOME IFR CEILINGS. THERE WILL BE PATCHY
FOG TONIGHT OVER THE STATE...WITH MVFR VISIBILITIES. WINDS WILL
VARY FROM NORTHEAST TO SOUTHEAST AT 3 TO 7 MPH.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 303 PM CST SAT DEC 20 2014/

AVIATION...
CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO ERODE ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION THIS
AFTERNOON...WITH VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH TONIGHT/EARLY SUNDAY.
HOWEVER...LOW CLOUDS WILL HANG ON IN PORTIONS OF THE OZARK AND
OUACHITA MOUNTAINS OF THE NORTH/WEST...WITH MVFR AND SOME IFR
CEILINGS. THERE WILL BE PATCHY FOG TONIGHT OVER THE STATE...WITH
MVFR VISIBILITIES. WINDS WILL VARY FROM NORTHEAST TO SOUTHEAST AT 3
TO 7 MPH. (46)

SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT

TODAY...CLOUDS HAVE BEGUN TO ERODE ACROSS MUCH OF SOUTHEASTERN AND
EASTERN ARKANSAS THIS AFTERNOON AND EXPECT PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES TO
CONTINUE THROUGH THE NIGHT TONIGHT.  CLOUDS WILL HANG TOUGH ACROSS
THE WESTERN HALF OF THE STATE DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS ALLOWING
FOR COMPARATIVELY WARMER OVERNIGHT LOW TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE
WESTERN HALF OF THE STATE. DID NOT INCLUDE IT IN THE FORECAST...BUT
THE DEVELOPMENT OF FOG ACROSS WESTERN ARKANSAS WILL NEED TO BE
MONITORED.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL DEPART TO THE EAST ON SUNDAY BRINGING A RETURN OF
WARM SOUTHERLY FLOW AND INCREASED MOISTURE. IN THE SHORT
TERM...SUNDAY LOOKS LIKE THE BEST DAY FOR ARKANSANS TO SEE THE SUN
WITH CLOUDS INCREASING FROM WEST TO EAST THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS
ON SUNDAY NIGHT.

THIS SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL ALLOW FOR WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ON
MONDAY. DID SLIGHTLY UNDERCUT GUIDANCE ON THE HIGH TEMPS...YET DID
TREND THE FORECAST A BIT WARMER. STRONG SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL KEEP
OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES ABOVE NORMAL MONDAY NIGHT AS WELL.

PRECIPITATION CHANCES RETURN TO THE FORECAST MONDAY NIGHT AS SURFACE
LOW PRESSURE TRACKS TO THE NORTH OF ARKANSAS AND WILL EVENTUALLY
DRAG ITS ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT THROUGH THE STATE. FORECAST SOUNDINGS
DO SHOW THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE AHEAD OF THE FRONT MONDAY
NIGHT AND INTO TUESDAY...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST WHERE
INSTABILITY WILL BE GREATEST. HIGH TEMPERATURES ON TUESDAY WILL
OCCUR DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS AND DECREASE THROUGH THE DAY
WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE COLD FRONT.

BEHIND THE FRONT A DEEP UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL DIG INTO THE REGION
AND BRING COLD AIR ALOFT. MODELS DISAGREE ON THE AMOUNT OF COLD AIR
THAT WILL BE IN PLACE AS WELL AS HOW MUCH POST FRONTAL AVAILABLE
MOISTURE THERE WILL BE. ECMWF AND NAM ARE THE DRIEST OF THE
SOLUTIONS...WHILE THE GFS IS THE COLDEST AND WETTEST. AT THIS
TIME...WILL CONTINUE MONITORING THE GFS...HOWEVER DO CONSIDER IT THE
OUTLIER. THIS WILL CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED IN FUTURE FORECASTS.

LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY

A POWERFUL STORM SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE STRENGTHENING OVER THE GREAT
LAKES WEDNESDAY...WITH A SECONDARY SYSTEM FORMING OVER THE
MID-ATLANTIC COAST AND TRACKING TOWARD NEW ENGLAND. ON THE BACK SIDE
OF THIS DOUBLE BARREL SYSTEM...BREEZY CONDITIONS AND NEAR/SLIGHTLY
BELOW SEASONAL TEMPERATURES WILL BE NOTED. SNOW FLURRIES WILL BE
POSSIBLE EARLY IN THE DAY IN THE NORTHEAST.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL FOLLOW THE SYSTEM...BUT WILL QUICKLY EXIT INTO
THE GULF OF MEXICO CHRISTMAS DAY. CLOCKWISE FLOW AROUND THE HIGH
WILL BRING SOUTHERLY WINDS AND WARMER WEATHER/ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES. THE WARMUP WILL BE IN ADVANCE OF A NEW COLD FRONT
IN THE PLAINS.

THE FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH THE REGION FRIDAY/FRIDAY EVENING WITH
CHANCES FOR SHOWERS. COLD/DRY AIR WILL FOLLOW...BUT THIS DOES NOT
APPEAR DRASTIC. TEMPERATURES SATURDAY WILL BE SUBPAR BY ONLY A FEW
DEGREES.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BATESVILLE AR     31  49  38  54 /   0  10  10  30
CAMDEN AR         35  55  40  63 /   0  10  10  20
HARRISON AR       34  48  38  56 /  10  10  10  30
HOT SPRINGS AR    35  52  40  58 /  10  10  10  20
LITTLE ROCK   AR  34  52  40  60 /   0  10  10  20
MONTICELLO AR     35  55  42  63 /   0  10  10  20
MOUNT IDA AR      34  51  40  59 /  10  10  10  20
MOUNTAIN HOME AR  34  49  38  56 /  10  10  10  30
NEWPORT AR        31  49  39  54 /   0  10  10  20
PINE BLUFF AR     34  52  40  62 /   0  10  10  20
RUSSELLVILLE AR   36  52  39  57 /  10  10  10  30
SEARCY AR         31  49  36  54 /   0  10  10  20
STUTTGART AR      32  51  40  60 /   0  10  10  20
&&

.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&

$$


AVIATION...56






000
FXUS64 KLZK 202103 AAA
AFDLZK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR AVIATION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
303 PM CST SAT DEC 20 2014

.AVIATION...
CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO ERODE ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION THIS
AFTERNOON...WITH VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH TONIGHT/EARLY SUNDAY.
HOWEVER...LOW CLOUDS WILL HANG ON IN PORTIONS OF THE OZARK AND
OUACHITA MOUNTAINS OF THE NORTH/WEST...WITH MVFR AND SOME IFR
CEILINGS. THERE WILL BE PATCHY FOG TONIGHT OVER THE STATE...WITH
MVFR VISIBILITIES. WINDS WILL VARY FROM NORTHEAST TO SOUTHEAST AT 3
TO 7 MPH. (46)
&&

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT

TODAY...CLOUDS HAVE BEGUN TO ERODE ACROSS MUCH OF SOUTHEASTERN AND
EASTERN ARKANSAS THIS AFTERNOON AND EXPECT PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES TO
CONTINUE THROUGH THE NIGHT TONIGHT.  CLOUDS WILL HANG TOUGH ACROSS
THE WESTERN HALF OF THE STATE DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS ALLOWING
FOR COMPARATIVELY WARMER OVERNIGHT LOW TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE
WESTERN HALF OF THE STATE. DID NOT INCLUDE IT IN THE FORECAST...BUT
THE DEVELOPMENT OF FOG ACROSS WESTERN ARKANSAS WILL NEED TO BE
MONITORED.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL DEPART TO THE EAST ON SUNDAY BRINGING A RETURN OF
WARM SOUTHERLY FLOW AND INCREASED MOISTURE. IN THE SHORT
TERM...SUNDAY LOOKS LIKE THE BEST DAY FOR ARKANSANS TO SEE THE SUN
WITH CLOUDS INCREASING FROM WEST TO EAST THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS
ON SUNDAY NIGHT.

THIS SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL ALLOW FOR WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ON
MONDAY. DID SLIGHTLY UNDERCUT GUIDANCE ON THE HIGH TEMPS...YET DID
TREND THE FORECAST A BIT WARMER. STRONG SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL KEEP
OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES ABOVE NORMAL MONDAY NIGHT AS WELL.

PRECIPITATION CHANCES RETURN TO THE FORECAST MONDAY NIGHT AS SURFACE
LOW PRESSURE TRACKS TO THE NORTH OF ARKANSAS AND WILL EVENTUALLY
DRAG ITS ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT THROUGH THE STATE. FORECAST SOUNDINGS
DO SHOW THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE AHEAD OF THE FRONT MONDAY
NIGHT AND INTO TUESDAY...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST WHERE
INSTABILITY WILL BE GREATEST. HIGH TEMPERATURES ON TUESDAY WILL
OCCUR DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS AND DECREASE THROUGH THE DAY
WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE COLD FRONT.

BEHIND THE FRONT A DEEP UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL DIG INTO THE REGION
AND BRING COLD AIR ALOFT. MODELS DISAGREE ON THE AMOUNT OF COLD AIR
THAT WILL BE IN PLACE AS WELL AS HOW MUCH POST FRONTAL AVAILABLE
MOISTURE THERE WILL BE. ECMWF AND NAM ARE THE DRIEST OF THE
SOLUTIONS...WHILE THE GFS IS THE COLDEST AND WETTEST. AT THIS
TIME...WILL CONTINUE MONITORING THE GFS...HOWEVER DO CONSIDER IT THE
OUTLIER. THIS WILL CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED IN FUTURE FORECASTS.

&&

.LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY

A POWERFUL STORM SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE STRENGTHENING OVER THE GREAT
LAKES WEDNESDAY...WITH A SECONDARY SYSTEM FORMING OVER THE
MID-ATLANTIC COAST AND TRACKING TOWARD NEW ENGLAND. ON THE BACK SIDE
OF THIS DOUBLE BARREL SYSTEM...BREEZY CONDITIONS AND NEAR/SLIGHTLY
BELOW SEASONAL TEMPERATURES WILL BE NOTED. SNOW FLURRIES WILL BE
POSSIBLE EARLY IN THE DAY IN THE NORTHEAST.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL FOLLOW THE SYSTEM...BUT WILL QUICKLY EXIT INTO
THE GULF OF MEXICO CHRISTMAS DAY. CLOCKWISE FLOW AROUND THE HIGH
WILL BRING SOUTHERLY WINDS AND WARMER WEATHER/ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES. THE WARMUP WILL BE IN ADVANCE OF A NEW COLD FRONT
IN THE PLAINS.

THE FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH THE REGION FRIDAY/FRIDAY EVENING WITH
CHANCES FOR SHOWERS. COLD/DRY AIR WILL FOLLOW...BUT THIS DOES NOT
APPEAR DRASTIC. TEMPERATURES SATURDAY WILL BE SUBPAR BY ONLY A FEW
DEGREES.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BATESVILLE AR     44  31  49  38 /  10   0  10  10
CAMDEN AR         50  35  55  40 /   0   0  10  10
HARRISON AR       43  34  48  38 /  10  10  10  10
HOT SPRINGS AR    47  35  52  40 /  10  10  10  10
LITTLE ROCK   AR  46  34  52  40 /  10   0  10  10
MONTICELLO AR     49  35  55  42 /  10   0  10  10
MOUNT IDA AR      47  34  51  40 /  10  10  10  10
MOUNTAIN HOME AR  44  34  49  38 /  10  10  10  10
NEWPORT AR        44  31  49  39 /  10   0  10  10
PINE BLUFF AR     47  34  52  40 /  10   0  10  10
RUSSELLVILLE AR   48  36  52  39 /  10  10  10  10
SEARCY AR         45  31  49  36 /  10   0  10  10
STUTTGART AR      46  32  51  40 /  10   0  10  10
&&

.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...65 / LONG TERM...46








000
FXUS64 KLZK 202100
AFDLZK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
300 PM CST SAT DEC 20 2014

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT

TODAY...CLOUDS HAVE BEGUN TO ERODE ACROSS MUCH OF SOUTHEASTERN AND
EASTERN ARKANSAS THIS AFTERNOON AND EXPECT PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES TO
CONTINUE THROUGH THE NIGHT TONIGHT.  CLOUDS WILL HANG TOUGH ACROSS
THE WESTERN HALF OF THE STATE DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS ALLOWING
FOR COMPARATIVELY WARMER OVERNIGHT LOW TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE
WESTERN HALF OF THE STATE. DID NOT INCLUDE IT IN THE FORECAST...BUT
THE DEVELOPMENT OF FOG ACROSS WESTERN ARKANSAS WILL NEED TO BE
MONITORED.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL DEPART TO THE EAST ON SUNDAY BRINGING A RETURN OF
WARM SOUTHERLY FLOW AND INCREASED MOISTURE. IN THE SHORT
TERM...SUNDAY LOOKS LIKE THE BEST DAY FOR ARKANSANS TO SEE THE SUN
WITH CLOUDS INCREASING FROM WEST TO EAST THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS
ON SUNDAY NIGHT.

THIS SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL ALLOW FOR WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ON
MONDAY. DID SLIGHTLY UNDERCUT GUIDANCE ON THE HIGH TEMPS...YET DID
TREND THE FORECAST A BIT WARMER. STRONG SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL KEEP
OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES ABOVE NORMAL MONDAY NIGHT AS WELL.

PRECIPITATION CHANCES RETURN TO THE FORECAST MONDAY NIGHT AS SURFACE
LOW PRESSURE TRACKS TO THE NORTH OF ARKANSAS AND WILL EVENTUALLY
DRAG ITS ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT THROUGH THE STATE. FORECAST SOUNDINGS
DO SHOW THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE AHEAD OF THE FRONT MONDAY
NIGHT AND INTO TUESDAY...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST WHERE
INSTABILITY WILL BE GREATEST. HIGH TEMPERATURES ON TUESDAY WILL
OCCUR DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS AND DECREASE THROUGH THE DAY
WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE COLD FRONT.

BEHIND THE FRONT A DEEP UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL DIG INTO THE REGION
AND BRING COLD AIR ALOFT. MODELS DISAGREE ON THE AMOUNT OF COLD AIR
THAT WILL BE IN PLACE AS WELL AS HOW MUCH POST FRONTAL AVAILABLE
MOISTURE THERE WILL BE. ECMWF AND NAM ARE THE DRIEST OF THE
SOLUTIONS...WHILE THE GFS IS THE COLDEST AND WETTEST. AT THIS
TIME...WILL CONTINUE MONITORING THE GFS...HOWEVER DO CONSIDER IT THE
OUTLIER. THIS WILL CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED IN FUTURE FORECASTS.

&&

.LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY

A POWERFUL STORM SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE STRENGTHENING OVER THE GREAT
LAKES WEDNESDAY...WITH A SECONDARY SYSTEM FORMING OVER THE
MID-ATLANTIC COAST AND TRACKING TOWARD NEW ENGLAND. ON THE BACK SIDE
OF THIS DOUBLE BARREL SYSTEM...BREEZY CONDITIONS AND NEAR/SLIGHTLY
BELOW SEASONAL TEMPERATURES WILL BE NOTED. SNOW FLURRIES WILL BE
POSSIBLE EARLY IN THE DAY IN THE NORTHEAST.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL FOLLOW THE SYSTEM...BUT WILL QUICKLY EXIT INTO
THE GULF OF MEXICO CHRISTMAS DAY. CLOCKWISE FLOW AROUND THE HIGH
WILL BRING SOUTHERLY WINDS AND WARMER WEATHER/ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES. THE WARMUP WILL BE IN ADVANCE OF A NEW COLD FRONT
IN THE PLAINS.

THE FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH THE REGION FRIDAY/FRIDAY EVENING WITH
CHANCES FOR SHOWERS. COLD/DRY AIR WILL FOLLOW...BUT THIS DOES NOT
APPEAR DRASTIC. TEMPERATURES SATURDAY WILL BE SUBPAR BY ONLY A FEW
DEGREES.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BATESVILLE AR     44  31  49  38 /  10   0  10  10
CAMDEN AR         50  35  55  40 /   0   0  10  10
HARRISON AR       43  34  48  38 /  10  10  10  10
HOT SPRINGS AR    47  35  52  40 /  10  10  10  10
LITTLE ROCK   AR  46  34  52  40 /  10   0  10  10
MONTICELLO AR     49  35  55  42 /  10   0  10  10
MOUNT IDA AR      47  34  51  40 /  10  10  10  10
MOUNTAIN HOME AR  44  34  49  38 /  10  10  10  10
NEWPORT AR        44  31  49  39 /  10   0  10  10
PINE BLUFF AR     47  34  52  40 /  10   0  10  10
RUSSELLVILLE AR   48  36  52  39 /  10  10  10  10
SEARCY AR         45  31  49  36 /  10   0  10  10
STUTTGART AR      46  32  51  40 /  10   0  10  10
&&

.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...65 / LONG TERM...46






000
FXUS64 KLZK 201725
AFDLZK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
1125 AM CST SAT DEC 20 2014

.UPDATE...

LOW CLOUDS CONTINUE TO BE WIDESPREAD ACROSS THE STATE...WITH SOME
CLEARING OCCURRING IN SOUTHEAST ARKANSAS. ELSEWHERE A FEW BREAKS IN THE
CLOUDS MAY BE SEEN TODAY...BUT OVERALL CLOUDY CONDITIONS WILL
PREVAIL. FORECAST IS ON TRACK AND NO UPDATE WAS NEEDED.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 517 AM CST SAT DEC 20 2014/

AVIATION...
LOW CLOUDS WILL BE PREVALENT THROUGH THE PERIOD...AS WINDS REMAIN
LIGHT AND VARIABLE...AND THE TEMPERATURE INVERSION REMAINS STRONG
UNDER HIGH PRESSURE MOVING THROUGH. DRIZZLE AND FOG WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS...WITH SOME IMPROVEMENTS LIKELY BY MID
DAY...WITH CONDITIONS BRIEFLY IMPROVING TO VFR. HOWEVER...LOW
CLOUDS WILL LIKELY DEVELOP AGAIN...WITH VISBYS RESTRICTED TOWARD
THE END OF THE PERIOD.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 221 AM CST SAT DEC 20 2014/

SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY

LOW CLOUDS AND FOG CONTINUE ACROSS THE CWA EARLY THIS MORNING AS THE
LOWER LEVEL OF THE ATMOSPHERE REMAINS DECOUPLED FROM THE OVERALL
FLOW ABOVE 850 MB. WHILE SOME SPOTS COULD SEE SOME DENSE FOG...MOST
SITES WILL SEE VIS REMAIN OVER 1 MILE. WHILE FOG WILL SLOWLY
DISSIPATE LATER THIS MORNING...DO EXPECT THE LOW CLOUDS TO PERSIST
FOR MUCH OF THE DAY WITH WEAK HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SFC UP TO ABOUT
THE 850 MB LEVEL...ALLOWING FOR VERY LITTLE IF ANY MIXING FOR A
CLEARING SKY. WILL ALSO SEE POTENTIAL FOR SOME DZ THROUGH EARLY
AFTERNOON. THERE MAY BE A FEW BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS LATE THIS
AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING HRS...BUT ONLY IF AT LEAST SOME MIXING
THROUGH THE LOWER LEVELS FROM ALOFT CAN INITIATE. WILL KEEP TEMPS
COOL AGAIN FOR THIS SAT...REMAINING IN THE 40S. THE EXCEPTION WILL
BE ACROSS THE SE WHERE THERE MAY BE A BETTER SHOT AT SEEING THE
CLOUDS BREAK.

THERE WILL BE A BETTER CHANCE FOR SEEING SOME SUNSHINE FOR SUN AS
FLOW ALOFT WILL BECOME SW OVER THE STATE...AND WILL LIKELY SEE MORE
SUBSTANTIAL MIXING. AS A RESULT...SHOULD SEE HIGHS WARM INTO THE
50S IN MANY LOCATIONS.

THE POTENTIAL FOR SEEING SUNSHINE WILL BE SHORT LIVED HOWEVER AS
MOISTURE LEVELS BEGIN TO INCREASE AGAIN BY MON ACROSS THE REGION AS
FLOW ALOFT WILL PERSIST FROM THE SW. RAIN CHANCES WILL BE ON THE
INCREASE AS A RESULT...ESPECIALLY WITH THE APPROACH OF A DEEPENING
UPPER TROUGH TO THE WEST AND NW.

RAIN CHANCES INCREASE SUBSTANTIALLY FOR MON NIGHT AND ESPECIALLY FOR
TUE AS THE UPPER TROUGH DEEPENS SIGNIFICANTLY...WITH SFC LOW
PRESSURE DEVELOPING TO THE SOUTH AND LIFTING NE ACROSS PORTIONS OF
THE STATE. INITIALLY...ONLY RAINFALL IS EXPECTED...BUT COLDER AIR
WILL BEGIN TO SURGE SE INTO THE STATE BEHIND THE COLD FRONT THAT
WILL PUSH THROUGH ON TUE. TUE WILL BE A DAY WHERE TEMPS WILL LIKELY
BE WARMEST IN THE MORNING HRS...THEN DECREASE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.
AT THIS TIME...KEEP PRECIP ONLY LIQUID AS TEMPS WILL REMAIN WARM
ENOUGH THROUGH THE PERIOD FOR PRECIP TO REMAIN ALL RAIN.
HOWEVER...THERE LOOKS TO BE INCREASING POTENTIAL FOR A BRIEF SWITCH
OVER TO SOME WINTRY PRECIP TUE NIGHT.

LONG TERM...TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY

TUESDAY NIGHT...THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL BE TO THE EAST OF
ARKANSAS. HOWEVER...THE UPPER TROUGH WILL BE MOVING THROUGH BEHIND
IT. WITH ADDITIONAL UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT...AND MOISTURE LINGERING
BEHIND THE SYSTEM...PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL CONTINUE INTO THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS. AT THIS POINT...IT DOES LOOK LIKE PRECIPITATION
WILL BE MIXED WITH AND POSSIBLY CHANGE OVER TO SNOW CENTRAL AND
NORTH BEFORE COMING TO AN END WEDNESDAY MORNING.

WEAK SURFACE RIDGING WILL PASS THROUGH THE REGION BEHIND THE
SYSTEM...AND BY CHRISTMAS...WINDS SHOULD BE BACK FROM THE SOUTH...WITH
TEMPERATURES WARMING INTO THE 50S TO NEAR 60 DEGREES. ANOTHER
FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL AFFECT THE AREA ON FRIDAY...BRINGING RAIN
CHANCES BACK TO THE FORECAST.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BATESVILLE AR     44  30  49  37 /  10   0  10  10
CAMDEN AR         50  34  55  41 /   0   0  10  10
HARRISON AR       43  32  48  37 /  10  10  10  10
HOT SPRINGS AR    47  34  52  40 /  10  10  10  10
LITTLE ROCK   AR  46  32  51  39 /  10   0  10  10
MONTICELLO AR     49  34  54  42 /  10   0  10  10
MOUNT IDA AR      47  34  51  40 /  10  10  10  10
MOUNTAIN HOME AR  44  33  49  38 /  10  10  10  10
NEWPORT AR        44  30  49  38 /  10   0  10  10
PINE BLUFF AR     47  33  52  40 /  10   0  10  10
RUSSELLVILLE AR   48  34  52  39 /  10  10  10  10
SEARCY AR         45  30  49  37 /  10   0  10  10
STUTTGART AR      46  32  51  39 /  10   0  10  10
&&

.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&

$$

65






000
FXUS64 KLZK 201725
AFDLZK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
1125 AM CST SAT DEC 20 2014

.UPDATE...

LOW CLOUDS CONTINUE TO BE WIDESPREAD ACROSS THE STATE...WITH SOME
CLEARING OCCURRING IN SOUTHEAST ARKANSAS. ELSEWHERE A FEW BREAKS IN THE
CLOUDS MAY BE SEEN TODAY...BUT OVERALL CLOUDY CONDITIONS WILL
PREVAIL. FORECAST IS ON TRACK AND NO UPDATE WAS NEEDED.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 517 AM CST SAT DEC 20 2014/

AVIATION...
LOW CLOUDS WILL BE PREVALENT THROUGH THE PERIOD...AS WINDS REMAIN
LIGHT AND VARIABLE...AND THE TEMPERATURE INVERSION REMAINS STRONG
UNDER HIGH PRESSURE MOVING THROUGH. DRIZZLE AND FOG WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS...WITH SOME IMPROVEMENTS LIKELY BY MID
DAY...WITH CONDITIONS BRIEFLY IMPROVING TO VFR. HOWEVER...LOW
CLOUDS WILL LIKELY DEVELOP AGAIN...WITH VISBYS RESTRICTED TOWARD
THE END OF THE PERIOD.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 221 AM CST SAT DEC 20 2014/

SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY

LOW CLOUDS AND FOG CONTINUE ACROSS THE CWA EARLY THIS MORNING AS THE
LOWER LEVEL OF THE ATMOSPHERE REMAINS DECOUPLED FROM THE OVERALL
FLOW ABOVE 850 MB. WHILE SOME SPOTS COULD SEE SOME DENSE FOG...MOST
SITES WILL SEE VIS REMAIN OVER 1 MILE. WHILE FOG WILL SLOWLY
DISSIPATE LATER THIS MORNING...DO EXPECT THE LOW CLOUDS TO PERSIST
FOR MUCH OF THE DAY WITH WEAK HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SFC UP TO ABOUT
THE 850 MB LEVEL...ALLOWING FOR VERY LITTLE IF ANY MIXING FOR A
CLEARING SKY. WILL ALSO SEE POTENTIAL FOR SOME DZ THROUGH EARLY
AFTERNOON. THERE MAY BE A FEW BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS LATE THIS
AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING HRS...BUT ONLY IF AT LEAST SOME MIXING
THROUGH THE LOWER LEVELS FROM ALOFT CAN INITIATE. WILL KEEP TEMPS
COOL AGAIN FOR THIS SAT...REMAINING IN THE 40S. THE EXCEPTION WILL
BE ACROSS THE SE WHERE THERE MAY BE A BETTER SHOT AT SEEING THE
CLOUDS BREAK.

THERE WILL BE A BETTER CHANCE FOR SEEING SOME SUNSHINE FOR SUN AS
FLOW ALOFT WILL BECOME SW OVER THE STATE...AND WILL LIKELY SEE MORE
SUBSTANTIAL MIXING. AS A RESULT...SHOULD SEE HIGHS WARM INTO THE
50S IN MANY LOCATIONS.

THE POTENTIAL FOR SEEING SUNSHINE WILL BE SHORT LIVED HOWEVER AS
MOISTURE LEVELS BEGIN TO INCREASE AGAIN BY MON ACROSS THE REGION AS
FLOW ALOFT WILL PERSIST FROM THE SW. RAIN CHANCES WILL BE ON THE
INCREASE AS A RESULT...ESPECIALLY WITH THE APPROACH OF A DEEPENING
UPPER TROUGH TO THE WEST AND NW.

RAIN CHANCES INCREASE SUBSTANTIALLY FOR MON NIGHT AND ESPECIALLY FOR
TUE AS THE UPPER TROUGH DEEPENS SIGNIFICANTLY...WITH SFC LOW
PRESSURE DEVELOPING TO THE SOUTH AND LIFTING NE ACROSS PORTIONS OF
THE STATE. INITIALLY...ONLY RAINFALL IS EXPECTED...BUT COLDER AIR
WILL BEGIN TO SURGE SE INTO THE STATE BEHIND THE COLD FRONT THAT
WILL PUSH THROUGH ON TUE. TUE WILL BE A DAY WHERE TEMPS WILL LIKELY
BE WARMEST IN THE MORNING HRS...THEN DECREASE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.
AT THIS TIME...KEEP PRECIP ONLY LIQUID AS TEMPS WILL REMAIN WARM
ENOUGH THROUGH THE PERIOD FOR PRECIP TO REMAIN ALL RAIN.
HOWEVER...THERE LOOKS TO BE INCREASING POTENTIAL FOR A BRIEF SWITCH
OVER TO SOME WINTRY PRECIP TUE NIGHT.

LONG TERM...TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY

TUESDAY NIGHT...THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL BE TO THE EAST OF
ARKANSAS. HOWEVER...THE UPPER TROUGH WILL BE MOVING THROUGH BEHIND
IT. WITH ADDITIONAL UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT...AND MOISTURE LINGERING
BEHIND THE SYSTEM...PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL CONTINUE INTO THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS. AT THIS POINT...IT DOES LOOK LIKE PRECIPITATION
WILL BE MIXED WITH AND POSSIBLY CHANGE OVER TO SNOW CENTRAL AND
NORTH BEFORE COMING TO AN END WEDNESDAY MORNING.

WEAK SURFACE RIDGING WILL PASS THROUGH THE REGION BEHIND THE
SYSTEM...AND BY CHRISTMAS...WINDS SHOULD BE BACK FROM THE SOUTH...WITH
TEMPERATURES WARMING INTO THE 50S TO NEAR 60 DEGREES. ANOTHER
FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL AFFECT THE AREA ON FRIDAY...BRINGING RAIN
CHANCES BACK TO THE FORECAST.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BATESVILLE AR     44  30  49  37 /  10   0  10  10
CAMDEN AR         50  34  55  41 /   0   0  10  10
HARRISON AR       43  32  48  37 /  10  10  10  10
HOT SPRINGS AR    47  34  52  40 /  10  10  10  10
LITTLE ROCK   AR  46  32  51  39 /  10   0  10  10
MONTICELLO AR     49  34  54  42 /  10   0  10  10
MOUNT IDA AR      47  34  51  40 /  10  10  10  10
MOUNTAIN HOME AR  44  33  49  38 /  10  10  10  10
NEWPORT AR        44  30  49  38 /  10   0  10  10
PINE BLUFF AR     47  33  52  40 /  10   0  10  10
RUSSELLVILLE AR   48  34  52  39 /  10  10  10  10
SEARCY AR         45  30  49  37 /  10   0  10  10
STUTTGART AR      46  32  51  39 /  10   0  10  10
&&

.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&

$$

65






000
FXUS64 KLZK 201725
AFDLZK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
1125 AM CST SAT DEC 20 2014

.UPDATE...

LOW CLOUDS CONTINUE TO BE WIDESPREAD ACROSS THE STATE...WITH SOME
CLEARING OCCURRING IN SOUTHEAST ARKANSAS. ELSEWHERE A FEW BREAKS IN THE
CLOUDS MAY BE SEEN TODAY...BUT OVERALL CLOUDY CONDITIONS WILL
PREVAIL. FORECAST IS ON TRACK AND NO UPDATE WAS NEEDED.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 517 AM CST SAT DEC 20 2014/

AVIATION...
LOW CLOUDS WILL BE PREVALENT THROUGH THE PERIOD...AS WINDS REMAIN
LIGHT AND VARIABLE...AND THE TEMPERATURE INVERSION REMAINS STRONG
UNDER HIGH PRESSURE MOVING THROUGH. DRIZZLE AND FOG WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS...WITH SOME IMPROVEMENTS LIKELY BY MID
DAY...WITH CONDITIONS BRIEFLY IMPROVING TO VFR. HOWEVER...LOW
CLOUDS WILL LIKELY DEVELOP AGAIN...WITH VISBYS RESTRICTED TOWARD
THE END OF THE PERIOD.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 221 AM CST SAT DEC 20 2014/

SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY

LOW CLOUDS AND FOG CONTINUE ACROSS THE CWA EARLY THIS MORNING AS THE
LOWER LEVEL OF THE ATMOSPHERE REMAINS DECOUPLED FROM THE OVERALL
FLOW ABOVE 850 MB. WHILE SOME SPOTS COULD SEE SOME DENSE FOG...MOST
SITES WILL SEE VIS REMAIN OVER 1 MILE. WHILE FOG WILL SLOWLY
DISSIPATE LATER THIS MORNING...DO EXPECT THE LOW CLOUDS TO PERSIST
FOR MUCH OF THE DAY WITH WEAK HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SFC UP TO ABOUT
THE 850 MB LEVEL...ALLOWING FOR VERY LITTLE IF ANY MIXING FOR A
CLEARING SKY. WILL ALSO SEE POTENTIAL FOR SOME DZ THROUGH EARLY
AFTERNOON. THERE MAY BE A FEW BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS LATE THIS
AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING HRS...BUT ONLY IF AT LEAST SOME MIXING
THROUGH THE LOWER LEVELS FROM ALOFT CAN INITIATE. WILL KEEP TEMPS
COOL AGAIN FOR THIS SAT...REMAINING IN THE 40S. THE EXCEPTION WILL
BE ACROSS THE SE WHERE THERE MAY BE A BETTER SHOT AT SEEING THE
CLOUDS BREAK.

THERE WILL BE A BETTER CHANCE FOR SEEING SOME SUNSHINE FOR SUN AS
FLOW ALOFT WILL BECOME SW OVER THE STATE...AND WILL LIKELY SEE MORE
SUBSTANTIAL MIXING. AS A RESULT...SHOULD SEE HIGHS WARM INTO THE
50S IN MANY LOCATIONS.

THE POTENTIAL FOR SEEING SUNSHINE WILL BE SHORT LIVED HOWEVER AS
MOISTURE LEVELS BEGIN TO INCREASE AGAIN BY MON ACROSS THE REGION AS
FLOW ALOFT WILL PERSIST FROM THE SW. RAIN CHANCES WILL BE ON THE
INCREASE AS A RESULT...ESPECIALLY WITH THE APPROACH OF A DEEPENING
UPPER TROUGH TO THE WEST AND NW.

RAIN CHANCES INCREASE SUBSTANTIALLY FOR MON NIGHT AND ESPECIALLY FOR
TUE AS THE UPPER TROUGH DEEPENS SIGNIFICANTLY...WITH SFC LOW
PRESSURE DEVELOPING TO THE SOUTH AND LIFTING NE ACROSS PORTIONS OF
THE STATE. INITIALLY...ONLY RAINFALL IS EXPECTED...BUT COLDER AIR
WILL BEGIN TO SURGE SE INTO THE STATE BEHIND THE COLD FRONT THAT
WILL PUSH THROUGH ON TUE. TUE WILL BE A DAY WHERE TEMPS WILL LIKELY
BE WARMEST IN THE MORNING HRS...THEN DECREASE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.
AT THIS TIME...KEEP PRECIP ONLY LIQUID AS TEMPS WILL REMAIN WARM
ENOUGH THROUGH THE PERIOD FOR PRECIP TO REMAIN ALL RAIN.
HOWEVER...THERE LOOKS TO BE INCREASING POTENTIAL FOR A BRIEF SWITCH
OVER TO SOME WINTRY PRECIP TUE NIGHT.

LONG TERM...TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY

TUESDAY NIGHT...THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL BE TO THE EAST OF
ARKANSAS. HOWEVER...THE UPPER TROUGH WILL BE MOVING THROUGH BEHIND
IT. WITH ADDITIONAL UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT...AND MOISTURE LINGERING
BEHIND THE SYSTEM...PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL CONTINUE INTO THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS. AT THIS POINT...IT DOES LOOK LIKE PRECIPITATION
WILL BE MIXED WITH AND POSSIBLY CHANGE OVER TO SNOW CENTRAL AND
NORTH BEFORE COMING TO AN END WEDNESDAY MORNING.

WEAK SURFACE RIDGING WILL PASS THROUGH THE REGION BEHIND THE
SYSTEM...AND BY CHRISTMAS...WINDS SHOULD BE BACK FROM THE SOUTH...WITH
TEMPERATURES WARMING INTO THE 50S TO NEAR 60 DEGREES. ANOTHER
FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL AFFECT THE AREA ON FRIDAY...BRINGING RAIN
CHANCES BACK TO THE FORECAST.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BATESVILLE AR     44  30  49  37 /  10   0  10  10
CAMDEN AR         50  34  55  41 /   0   0  10  10
HARRISON AR       43  32  48  37 /  10  10  10  10
HOT SPRINGS AR    47  34  52  40 /  10  10  10  10
LITTLE ROCK   AR  46  32  51  39 /  10   0  10  10
MONTICELLO AR     49  34  54  42 /  10   0  10  10
MOUNT IDA AR      47  34  51  40 /  10  10  10  10
MOUNTAIN HOME AR  44  33  49  38 /  10  10  10  10
NEWPORT AR        44  30  49  38 /  10   0  10  10
PINE BLUFF AR     47  33  52  40 /  10   0  10  10
RUSSELLVILLE AR   48  34  52  39 /  10  10  10  10
SEARCY AR         45  30  49  37 /  10   0  10  10
STUTTGART AR      46  32  51  39 /  10   0  10  10
&&

.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&

$$

65






000
FXUS64 KLZK 201725
AFDLZK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
1125 AM CST SAT DEC 20 2014

.UPDATE...

LOW CLOUDS CONTINUE TO BE WIDESPREAD ACROSS THE STATE...WITH SOME
CLEARING OCCURRING IN SOUTHEAST ARKANSAS. ELSEWHERE A FEW BREAKS IN THE
CLOUDS MAY BE SEEN TODAY...BUT OVERALL CLOUDY CONDITIONS WILL
PREVAIL. FORECAST IS ON TRACK AND NO UPDATE WAS NEEDED.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 517 AM CST SAT DEC 20 2014/

AVIATION...
LOW CLOUDS WILL BE PREVALENT THROUGH THE PERIOD...AS WINDS REMAIN
LIGHT AND VARIABLE...AND THE TEMPERATURE INVERSION REMAINS STRONG
UNDER HIGH PRESSURE MOVING THROUGH. DRIZZLE AND FOG WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS...WITH SOME IMPROVEMENTS LIKELY BY MID
DAY...WITH CONDITIONS BRIEFLY IMPROVING TO VFR. HOWEVER...LOW
CLOUDS WILL LIKELY DEVELOP AGAIN...WITH VISBYS RESTRICTED TOWARD
THE END OF THE PERIOD.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 221 AM CST SAT DEC 20 2014/

SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY

LOW CLOUDS AND FOG CONTINUE ACROSS THE CWA EARLY THIS MORNING AS THE
LOWER LEVEL OF THE ATMOSPHERE REMAINS DECOUPLED FROM THE OVERALL
FLOW ABOVE 850 MB. WHILE SOME SPOTS COULD SEE SOME DENSE FOG...MOST
SITES WILL SEE VIS REMAIN OVER 1 MILE. WHILE FOG WILL SLOWLY
DISSIPATE LATER THIS MORNING...DO EXPECT THE LOW CLOUDS TO PERSIST
FOR MUCH OF THE DAY WITH WEAK HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SFC UP TO ABOUT
THE 850 MB LEVEL...ALLOWING FOR VERY LITTLE IF ANY MIXING FOR A
CLEARING SKY. WILL ALSO SEE POTENTIAL FOR SOME DZ THROUGH EARLY
AFTERNOON. THERE MAY BE A FEW BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS LATE THIS
AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING HRS...BUT ONLY IF AT LEAST SOME MIXING
THROUGH THE LOWER LEVELS FROM ALOFT CAN INITIATE. WILL KEEP TEMPS
COOL AGAIN FOR THIS SAT...REMAINING IN THE 40S. THE EXCEPTION WILL
BE ACROSS THE SE WHERE THERE MAY BE A BETTER SHOT AT SEEING THE
CLOUDS BREAK.

THERE WILL BE A BETTER CHANCE FOR SEEING SOME SUNSHINE FOR SUN AS
FLOW ALOFT WILL BECOME SW OVER THE STATE...AND WILL LIKELY SEE MORE
SUBSTANTIAL MIXING. AS A RESULT...SHOULD SEE HIGHS WARM INTO THE
50S IN MANY LOCATIONS.

THE POTENTIAL FOR SEEING SUNSHINE WILL BE SHORT LIVED HOWEVER AS
MOISTURE LEVELS BEGIN TO INCREASE AGAIN BY MON ACROSS THE REGION AS
FLOW ALOFT WILL PERSIST FROM THE SW. RAIN CHANCES WILL BE ON THE
INCREASE AS A RESULT...ESPECIALLY WITH THE APPROACH OF A DEEPENING
UPPER TROUGH TO THE WEST AND NW.

RAIN CHANCES INCREASE SUBSTANTIALLY FOR MON NIGHT AND ESPECIALLY FOR
TUE AS THE UPPER TROUGH DEEPENS SIGNIFICANTLY...WITH SFC LOW
PRESSURE DEVELOPING TO THE SOUTH AND LIFTING NE ACROSS PORTIONS OF
THE STATE. INITIALLY...ONLY RAINFALL IS EXPECTED...BUT COLDER AIR
WILL BEGIN TO SURGE SE INTO THE STATE BEHIND THE COLD FRONT THAT
WILL PUSH THROUGH ON TUE. TUE WILL BE A DAY WHERE TEMPS WILL LIKELY
BE WARMEST IN THE MORNING HRS...THEN DECREASE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.
AT THIS TIME...KEEP PRECIP ONLY LIQUID AS TEMPS WILL REMAIN WARM
ENOUGH THROUGH THE PERIOD FOR PRECIP TO REMAIN ALL RAIN.
HOWEVER...THERE LOOKS TO BE INCREASING POTENTIAL FOR A BRIEF SWITCH
OVER TO SOME WINTRY PRECIP TUE NIGHT.

LONG TERM...TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY

TUESDAY NIGHT...THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL BE TO THE EAST OF
ARKANSAS. HOWEVER...THE UPPER TROUGH WILL BE MOVING THROUGH BEHIND
IT. WITH ADDITIONAL UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT...AND MOISTURE LINGERING
BEHIND THE SYSTEM...PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL CONTINUE INTO THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS. AT THIS POINT...IT DOES LOOK LIKE PRECIPITATION
WILL BE MIXED WITH AND POSSIBLY CHANGE OVER TO SNOW CENTRAL AND
NORTH BEFORE COMING TO AN END WEDNESDAY MORNING.

WEAK SURFACE RIDGING WILL PASS THROUGH THE REGION BEHIND THE
SYSTEM...AND BY CHRISTMAS...WINDS SHOULD BE BACK FROM THE SOUTH...WITH
TEMPERATURES WARMING INTO THE 50S TO NEAR 60 DEGREES. ANOTHER
FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL AFFECT THE AREA ON FRIDAY...BRINGING RAIN
CHANCES BACK TO THE FORECAST.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BATESVILLE AR     44  30  49  37 /  10   0  10  10
CAMDEN AR         50  34  55  41 /   0   0  10  10
HARRISON AR       43  32  48  37 /  10  10  10  10
HOT SPRINGS AR    47  34  52  40 /  10  10  10  10
LITTLE ROCK   AR  46  32  51  39 /  10   0  10  10
MONTICELLO AR     49  34  54  42 /  10   0  10  10
MOUNT IDA AR      47  34  51  40 /  10  10  10  10
MOUNTAIN HOME AR  44  33  49  38 /  10  10  10  10
NEWPORT AR        44  30  49  38 /  10   0  10  10
PINE BLUFF AR     47  33  52  40 /  10   0  10  10
RUSSELLVILLE AR   48  34  52  39 /  10  10  10  10
SEARCY AR         45  30  49  37 /  10   0  10  10
STUTTGART AR      46  32  51  39 /  10   0  10  10
&&

.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&

$$

65






000
FXUS64 KLZK 201117 AAA
AFDLZK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
517 AM CST SAT DEC 20 2014

.AVIATION...
LOW CLOUDS WILL BE PREVALENT THROUGH THE PERIOD...AS WINDS REMAIN
LIGHT AND VARIABLE...AND THE TEMPERATURE INVERSION REMAINS STRONG
UNDER HIGH PRESSURE MOVING THROUGH. DRIZZLE AND FOG WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS...WITH SOME IMPROVEMENTS LIKELY BY MID
DAY...WITH CONDITIONS BRIEFLY IMPROVING TO VFR. HOWEVER...LOW
CLOUDS WILL LIKELY DEVELOP AGAIN...WITH VISBYS RESTRICTED TOWARD
THE END OF THE PERIOD.
&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 221 AM CST SAT DEC 20 2014/

SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY

LOW CLOUDS AND FOG CONTINUE ACROSS THE CWA EARLY THIS MORNING AS THE
LOWER LEVEL OF THE ATMOSPHERE REMAINS DECOUPLED FROM THE OVERALL
FLOW ABOVE 850 MB. WHILE SOME SPOTS COULD SEE SOME DENSE FOG...MOST
SITES WILL SEE VIS REMAIN OVER 1 MILE. WHILE FOG WILL SLOWLY
DISSIPATE LATER THIS MORNING...DO EXPECT THE LOW CLOUDS TO PERSIST
FOR MUCH OF THE DAY WITH WEAK HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SFC UP TO ABOUT
THE 850 MB LEVEL...ALLOWING FOR VERY LITTLE IF ANY MIXING FOR A
CLEARING SKY. WILL ALSO SEE POTENTIAL FOR SOME DZ THROUGH EARLY
AFTERNOON. THERE MAY BE A FEW BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS LATE THIS
AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING HRS...BUT ONLY IF AT LEAST SOME MIXING
THROUGH THE LOWER LEVELS FROM ALOFT CAN INITIATE. WILL KEEP TEMPS
COOL AGAIN FOR THIS SAT...REMAINING IN THE 40S. THE EXCEPTION WILL
BE ACROSS THE SE WHERE THERE MAY BE A BETTER SHOT AT SEEING THE
CLOUDS BREAK.

THERE WILL BE A BETTER CHANCE FOR SEEING SOME SUNSHINE FOR SUN AS
FLOW ALOFT WILL BECOME SW OVER THE STATE...AND WILL LIKELY SEE MORE
SUBSTANTIAL MIXING. AS A RESULT...SHOULD SEE HIGHS WARM INTO THE
50S IN MANY LOCATIONS.

THE POTENTIAL FOR SEEING SUNSHINE WILL BE SHORT LIVED HOWEVER AS
MOISTURE LEVELS BEGIN TO INCREASE AGAIN BY MON ACROSS THE REGION AS
FLOW ALOFT WILL PERSIST FROM THE SW. RAIN CHANCES WILL BE ON THE
INCREASE AS A RESULT...ESPECIALLY WITH THE APPROACH OF A DEEPENING
UPPER TROUGH TO THE WEST AND NW.

RAIN CHANCES INCREASE SUBSTANTIALLY FOR MON NIGHT AND ESPECIALLY FOR
TUE AS THE UPPER TROUGH DEEPENS SIGNIFICANTLY...WITH SFC LOW
PRESSURE DEVELOPING TO THE SOUTH AND LIFTING NE ACROSS PORTIONS OF
THE STATE. INITIALLY...ONLY RAINFALL IS EXPECTED...BUT COLDER AIR
WILL BEGIN TO SURGE SE INTO THE STATE BEHIND THE COLD FRONT THAT
WILL PUSH THROUGH ON TUE. TUE WILL BE A DAY WHERE TEMPS WILL LIKELY
BE WARMEST IN THE MORNING HRS...THEN DECREASE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.
AT THIS TIME...KEEP PRECIP ONLY LIQUID AS TEMPS WILL REMAIN WARM
ENOUGH THROUGH THE PERIOD FOR PRECIP TO REMAIN ALL RAIN.
HOWEVER...THERE LOOKS TO BE INCREASING POTENTIAL FOR A BRIEF SWITCH
OVER TO SOME WINTRY PRECIP TUE NIGHT.

LONG TERM...TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY

TUESDAY NIGHT...THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL BE TO THE EAST OF
ARKANSAS. HOWEVER...THE UPPER TROUGH WILL BE MOVING THROUGH BEHIND
IT. WITH ADDITIONAL UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT...AND MOISTURE LINGERING
BEHIND THE SYSTEM...PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL CONTINUE INTO THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS. AT THIS POINT...IT DOES LOOK LIKE PRECIPITATION
WILL BE MIXED WITH AND POSSIBLY CHANGE OVER TO SNOW CENTRAL AND
NORTH BEFORE COMING TO AN END WEDNESDAY MORNING.

WEAK SURFACE RIDGING WILL PASS THROUGH THE REGION BEHIND THE
SYSTEM...AND BY CHRISTMAS...WINDS SHOULD BE BACK FROM THE SOUTH...WITH
TEMPERATURES WARMING INTO THE 50S TO NEAR 60 DEGREES. ANOTHER
FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL AFFECT THE AREA ON FRIDAY...BRINGING RAIN
CHANCES BACK TO THE FORECAST.
&&

.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&

$$

AVIATION...57





000
FXUS64 KLZK 201117 AAA
AFDLZK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
517 AM CST SAT DEC 20 2014

.AVIATION...
LOW CLOUDS WILL BE PREVALENT THROUGH THE PERIOD...AS WINDS REMAIN
LIGHT AND VARIABLE...AND THE TEMPERATURE INVERSION REMAINS STRONG
UNDER HIGH PRESSURE MOVING THROUGH. DRIZZLE AND FOG WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS...WITH SOME IMPROVEMENTS LIKELY BY MID
DAY...WITH CONDITIONS BRIEFLY IMPROVING TO VFR. HOWEVER...LOW
CLOUDS WILL LIKELY DEVELOP AGAIN...WITH VISBYS RESTRICTED TOWARD
THE END OF THE PERIOD.
&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 221 AM CST SAT DEC 20 2014/

SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY

LOW CLOUDS AND FOG CONTINUE ACROSS THE CWA EARLY THIS MORNING AS THE
LOWER LEVEL OF THE ATMOSPHERE REMAINS DECOUPLED FROM THE OVERALL
FLOW ABOVE 850 MB. WHILE SOME SPOTS COULD SEE SOME DENSE FOG...MOST
SITES WILL SEE VIS REMAIN OVER 1 MILE. WHILE FOG WILL SLOWLY
DISSIPATE LATER THIS MORNING...DO EXPECT THE LOW CLOUDS TO PERSIST
FOR MUCH OF THE DAY WITH WEAK HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SFC UP TO ABOUT
THE 850 MB LEVEL...ALLOWING FOR VERY LITTLE IF ANY MIXING FOR A
CLEARING SKY. WILL ALSO SEE POTENTIAL FOR SOME DZ THROUGH EARLY
AFTERNOON. THERE MAY BE A FEW BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS LATE THIS
AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING HRS...BUT ONLY IF AT LEAST SOME MIXING
THROUGH THE LOWER LEVELS FROM ALOFT CAN INITIATE. WILL KEEP TEMPS
COOL AGAIN FOR THIS SAT...REMAINING IN THE 40S. THE EXCEPTION WILL
BE ACROSS THE SE WHERE THERE MAY BE A BETTER SHOT AT SEEING THE
CLOUDS BREAK.

THERE WILL BE A BETTER CHANCE FOR SEEING SOME SUNSHINE FOR SUN AS
FLOW ALOFT WILL BECOME SW OVER THE STATE...AND WILL LIKELY SEE MORE
SUBSTANTIAL MIXING. AS A RESULT...SHOULD SEE HIGHS WARM INTO THE
50S IN MANY LOCATIONS.

THE POTENTIAL FOR SEEING SUNSHINE WILL BE SHORT LIVED HOWEVER AS
MOISTURE LEVELS BEGIN TO INCREASE AGAIN BY MON ACROSS THE REGION AS
FLOW ALOFT WILL PERSIST FROM THE SW. RAIN CHANCES WILL BE ON THE
INCREASE AS A RESULT...ESPECIALLY WITH THE APPROACH OF A DEEPENING
UPPER TROUGH TO THE WEST AND NW.

RAIN CHANCES INCREASE SUBSTANTIALLY FOR MON NIGHT AND ESPECIALLY FOR
TUE AS THE UPPER TROUGH DEEPENS SIGNIFICANTLY...WITH SFC LOW
PRESSURE DEVELOPING TO THE SOUTH AND LIFTING NE ACROSS PORTIONS OF
THE STATE. INITIALLY...ONLY RAINFALL IS EXPECTED...BUT COLDER AIR
WILL BEGIN TO SURGE SE INTO THE STATE BEHIND THE COLD FRONT THAT
WILL PUSH THROUGH ON TUE. TUE WILL BE A DAY WHERE TEMPS WILL LIKELY
BE WARMEST IN THE MORNING HRS...THEN DECREASE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.
AT THIS TIME...KEEP PRECIP ONLY LIQUID AS TEMPS WILL REMAIN WARM
ENOUGH THROUGH THE PERIOD FOR PRECIP TO REMAIN ALL RAIN.
HOWEVER...THERE LOOKS TO BE INCREASING POTENTIAL FOR A BRIEF SWITCH
OVER TO SOME WINTRY PRECIP TUE NIGHT.

LONG TERM...TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY

TUESDAY NIGHT...THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL BE TO THE EAST OF
ARKANSAS. HOWEVER...THE UPPER TROUGH WILL BE MOVING THROUGH BEHIND
IT. WITH ADDITIONAL UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT...AND MOISTURE LINGERING
BEHIND THE SYSTEM...PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL CONTINUE INTO THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS. AT THIS POINT...IT DOES LOOK LIKE PRECIPITATION
WILL BE MIXED WITH AND POSSIBLY CHANGE OVER TO SNOW CENTRAL AND
NORTH BEFORE COMING TO AN END WEDNESDAY MORNING.

WEAK SURFACE RIDGING WILL PASS THROUGH THE REGION BEHIND THE
SYSTEM...AND BY CHRISTMAS...WINDS SHOULD BE BACK FROM THE SOUTH...WITH
TEMPERATURES WARMING INTO THE 50S TO NEAR 60 DEGREES. ANOTHER
FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL AFFECT THE AREA ON FRIDAY...BRINGING RAIN
CHANCES BACK TO THE FORECAST.
&&

.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&

$$

AVIATION...57




000
FXUS64 KLZK 200821
AFDLZK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
221 AM CST SAT DEC 20 2014

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY

LOW CLOUDS AND FOG CONTINUE ACROSS THE CWA EARLY THIS MORNING AS THE
LOWER LEVEL OF THE ATMOSPHERE REMAINS DECOUPLED FROM THE OVERALL
FLOW ABOVE 850 MB. WHILE SOME SPOTS COULD SEE SOME DENSE FOG...MOST
SITES WILL SEE VIS REMAIN OVER 1 MILE. WHILE FOG WILL SLOWLY
DISSIPATE LATER THIS MORNING...DO EXPECT THE LOW CLOUDS TO PERSIST
FOR MUCH OF THE DAY WITH WEAK HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SFC UP TO ABOUT
THE 850 MB LEVEL...ALLOWING FOR VERY LITTLE IF ANY MIXING FOR A
CLEARING SKY. WILL ALSO SEE POTENTIAL FOR SOME DZ THROUGH EARLY
AFTERNOON. THERE MAY BE A FEW BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS LATE THIS
AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING HRS...BUT ONLY IF AT LEAST SOME MIXING
THROUGH THE LOWER LEVELS FROM ALOFT CAN INITIATE. WILL KEEP TEMPS
COOL AGAIN FOR THIS SAT...REMAINING IN THE 40S. THE EXCEPTION WILL
BE ACROSS THE SE WHERE THERE MAY BE A BETTER SHOT AT SEEING THE
CLOUDS BREAK.

THERE WILL BE A BETTER CHANCE FOR SEEING SOME SUNSHINE FOR SUN AS
FLOW ALOFT WILL BECOME SW OVER THE STATE...AND WILL LIKELY SEE MORE
SUBSTANTIAL MIXING. AS A RESULT...SHOULD SEE HIGHS WARM INTO THE
50S IN MANY LOCATIONS.

THE POTENTIAL FOR SEEING SUNSHINE WILL BE SHORT LIVED HOWEVER AS
MOISTURE LEVELS BEGIN TO INCREASE AGAIN BY MON ACROSS THE REGION AS
FLOW ALOFT WILL PERSIST FROM THE SW. RAIN CHANCES WILL BE ON THE
INCREASE AS A RESULT...ESPECIALLY WITH THE APPROACH OF A DEEPENING
UPPER TROUGH TO THE WEST AND NW.

RAIN CHANCES INCREASE SUBSTANTIALLY FOR MON NIGHT AND ESPECIALLY FOR
TUE AS THE UPPER TROUGH DEEPENS SIGNIFICANTLY...WITH SFC LOW
PRESSURE DEVELOPING TO THE SOUTH AND LIFTING NE ACROSS PORTIONS OF
THE STATE. INITIALLY...ONLY RAINFALL IS EXPECTED...BUT COLDER AIR
WILL BEGIN TO SURGE SE INTO THE STATE BEHIND THE COLD FRONT THAT
WILL PUSH THROUGH ON TUE. TUE WILL BE A DAY WHERE TEMPS WILL LIKELY
BE WARMEST IN THE MORNING HRS...THEN DECREASE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.
AT THIS TIME...KEEP PRECIP ONLY LIQUID AS TEMPS WILL REMAIN WARM
ENOUGH THROUGH THE PERIOD FOR PRECIP TO REMAIN ALL RAIN.
HOWEVER...THERE LOOKS TO BE INCREASING POTENTIAL FOR A BRIEF SWITCH
OVER TO SOME WINTRY PRECIP TUE NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM...TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY

TUESDAY NIGHT...THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL BE TO THE EAST OF
ARKANSAS. HOWEVER...THE UPPER TROUGH WILL BE MOVING THROUGH BEHIND
IT. WITH ADDITIONAL UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT...AND MOISTURE LINGERING
BEHIND THE SYSTEM...PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL CONTINUE INTO THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS. AT THIS POINT...IT DOES LOOK LIKE PRECIPITATION
WILL BE MIXED WITH AND POSSIBLY CHANGE OVER TO SNOW CENTRAL AND
NORTH BEFORE COMING TO AN END WEDNESDAY MORNING.

WEAK SURFACE RIDGING WILL PASS THROUGH THE REGION BEHIND THE
SYSTEM...AND BY CHRISTMAS...WINDS SHOULD BE BACK FROM THE SOUTH...WITH
TEMPERATURES WARMING INTO THE 50S TO NEAR 60 DEGREES. ANOTHER
FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL AFFECT THE AREA ON FRIDAY...BRINGING RAIN
CHANCES BACK TO THE FORECAST.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BATESVILLE AR     46  30  49  37 /  10   0  10  10
CAMDEN AR         51  34  55  41 /   0   0  10  10
HARRISON AR       45  32  48  37 /  10  10  10  10
HOT SPRINGS AR    48  34  52  40 /  10  10  10  10
LITTLE ROCK   AR  48  32  51  39 /  10   0  10  10
MONTICELLO AR     50  34  54  42 /  10   0  10  10
MOUNT IDA AR      48  34  51  40 /  10  10  10  10
MOUNTAIN HOME AR  45  33  49  38 /  10  10  10  10
NEWPORT AR        46  30  49  38 /  10   0  10  10
PINE BLUFF AR     48  33  52  40 /  10   0  10  10
RUSSELLVILLE AR   49  34  52  39 /  10  10  10  10
SEARCY AR         46  30  49  37 /  10   0  10  10
STUTTGART AR      48  32  51  39 /  10   0  10  10
&&

.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...62 / LONG TERM...57






000
FXUS64 KLZK 200821
AFDLZK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
221 AM CST SAT DEC 20 2014

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY

LOW CLOUDS AND FOG CONTINUE ACROSS THE CWA EARLY THIS MORNING AS THE
LOWER LEVEL OF THE ATMOSPHERE REMAINS DECOUPLED FROM THE OVERALL
FLOW ABOVE 850 MB. WHILE SOME SPOTS COULD SEE SOME DENSE FOG...MOST
SITES WILL SEE VIS REMAIN OVER 1 MILE. WHILE FOG WILL SLOWLY
DISSIPATE LATER THIS MORNING...DO EXPECT THE LOW CLOUDS TO PERSIST
FOR MUCH OF THE DAY WITH WEAK HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SFC UP TO ABOUT
THE 850 MB LEVEL...ALLOWING FOR VERY LITTLE IF ANY MIXING FOR A
CLEARING SKY. WILL ALSO SEE POTENTIAL FOR SOME DZ THROUGH EARLY
AFTERNOON. THERE MAY BE A FEW BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS LATE THIS
AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING HRS...BUT ONLY IF AT LEAST SOME MIXING
THROUGH THE LOWER LEVELS FROM ALOFT CAN INITIATE. WILL KEEP TEMPS
COOL AGAIN FOR THIS SAT...REMAINING IN THE 40S. THE EXCEPTION WILL
BE ACROSS THE SE WHERE THERE MAY BE A BETTER SHOT AT SEEING THE
CLOUDS BREAK.

THERE WILL BE A BETTER CHANCE FOR SEEING SOME SUNSHINE FOR SUN AS
FLOW ALOFT WILL BECOME SW OVER THE STATE...AND WILL LIKELY SEE MORE
SUBSTANTIAL MIXING. AS A RESULT...SHOULD SEE HIGHS WARM INTO THE
50S IN MANY LOCATIONS.

THE POTENTIAL FOR SEEING SUNSHINE WILL BE SHORT LIVED HOWEVER AS
MOISTURE LEVELS BEGIN TO INCREASE AGAIN BY MON ACROSS THE REGION AS
FLOW ALOFT WILL PERSIST FROM THE SW. RAIN CHANCES WILL BE ON THE
INCREASE AS A RESULT...ESPECIALLY WITH THE APPROACH OF A DEEPENING
UPPER TROUGH TO THE WEST AND NW.

RAIN CHANCES INCREASE SUBSTANTIALLY FOR MON NIGHT AND ESPECIALLY FOR
TUE AS THE UPPER TROUGH DEEPENS SIGNIFICANTLY...WITH SFC LOW
PRESSURE DEVELOPING TO THE SOUTH AND LIFTING NE ACROSS PORTIONS OF
THE STATE. INITIALLY...ONLY RAINFALL IS EXPECTED...BUT COLDER AIR
WILL BEGIN TO SURGE SE INTO THE STATE BEHIND THE COLD FRONT THAT
WILL PUSH THROUGH ON TUE. TUE WILL BE A DAY WHERE TEMPS WILL LIKELY
BE WARMEST IN THE MORNING HRS...THEN DECREASE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.
AT THIS TIME...KEEP PRECIP ONLY LIQUID AS TEMPS WILL REMAIN WARM
ENOUGH THROUGH THE PERIOD FOR PRECIP TO REMAIN ALL RAIN.
HOWEVER...THERE LOOKS TO BE INCREASING POTENTIAL FOR A BRIEF SWITCH
OVER TO SOME WINTRY PRECIP TUE NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM...TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY

TUESDAY NIGHT...THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL BE TO THE EAST OF
ARKANSAS. HOWEVER...THE UPPER TROUGH WILL BE MOVING THROUGH BEHIND
IT. WITH ADDITIONAL UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT...AND MOISTURE LINGERING
BEHIND THE SYSTEM...PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL CONTINUE INTO THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS. AT THIS POINT...IT DOES LOOK LIKE PRECIPITATION
WILL BE MIXED WITH AND POSSIBLY CHANGE OVER TO SNOW CENTRAL AND
NORTH BEFORE COMING TO AN END WEDNESDAY MORNING.

WEAK SURFACE RIDGING WILL PASS THROUGH THE REGION BEHIND THE
SYSTEM...AND BY CHRISTMAS...WINDS SHOULD BE BACK FROM THE SOUTH...WITH
TEMPERATURES WARMING INTO THE 50S TO NEAR 60 DEGREES. ANOTHER
FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL AFFECT THE AREA ON FRIDAY...BRINGING RAIN
CHANCES BACK TO THE FORECAST.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BATESVILLE AR     46  30  49  37 /  10   0  10  10
CAMDEN AR         51  34  55  41 /   0   0  10  10
HARRISON AR       45  32  48  37 /  10  10  10  10
HOT SPRINGS AR    48  34  52  40 /  10  10  10  10
LITTLE ROCK   AR  48  32  51  39 /  10   0  10  10
MONTICELLO AR     50  34  54  42 /  10   0  10  10
MOUNT IDA AR      48  34  51  40 /  10  10  10  10
MOUNTAIN HOME AR  45  33  49  38 /  10  10  10  10
NEWPORT AR        46  30  49  38 /  10   0  10  10
PINE BLUFF AR     48  33  52  40 /  10   0  10  10
RUSSELLVILLE AR   49  34  52  39 /  10  10  10  10
SEARCY AR         46  30  49  37 /  10   0  10  10
STUTTGART AR      48  32  51  39 /  10   0  10  10
&&

.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...62 / LONG TERM...57






000
FXUS64 KLZK 200821
AFDLZK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
221 AM CST SAT DEC 20 2014

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY

LOW CLOUDS AND FOG CONTINUE ACROSS THE CWA EARLY THIS MORNING AS THE
LOWER LEVEL OF THE ATMOSPHERE REMAINS DECOUPLED FROM THE OVERALL
FLOW ABOVE 850 MB. WHILE SOME SPOTS COULD SEE SOME DENSE FOG...MOST
SITES WILL SEE VIS REMAIN OVER 1 MILE. WHILE FOG WILL SLOWLY
DISSIPATE LATER THIS MORNING...DO EXPECT THE LOW CLOUDS TO PERSIST
FOR MUCH OF THE DAY WITH WEAK HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SFC UP TO ABOUT
THE 850 MB LEVEL...ALLOWING FOR VERY LITTLE IF ANY MIXING FOR A
CLEARING SKY. WILL ALSO SEE POTENTIAL FOR SOME DZ THROUGH EARLY
AFTERNOON. THERE MAY BE A FEW BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS LATE THIS
AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING HRS...BUT ONLY IF AT LEAST SOME MIXING
THROUGH THE LOWER LEVELS FROM ALOFT CAN INITIATE. WILL KEEP TEMPS
COOL AGAIN FOR THIS SAT...REMAINING IN THE 40S. THE EXCEPTION WILL
BE ACROSS THE SE WHERE THERE MAY BE A BETTER SHOT AT SEEING THE
CLOUDS BREAK.

THERE WILL BE A BETTER CHANCE FOR SEEING SOME SUNSHINE FOR SUN AS
FLOW ALOFT WILL BECOME SW OVER THE STATE...AND WILL LIKELY SEE MORE
SUBSTANTIAL MIXING. AS A RESULT...SHOULD SEE HIGHS WARM INTO THE
50S IN MANY LOCATIONS.

THE POTENTIAL FOR SEEING SUNSHINE WILL BE SHORT LIVED HOWEVER AS
MOISTURE LEVELS BEGIN TO INCREASE AGAIN BY MON ACROSS THE REGION AS
FLOW ALOFT WILL PERSIST FROM THE SW. RAIN CHANCES WILL BE ON THE
INCREASE AS A RESULT...ESPECIALLY WITH THE APPROACH OF A DEEPENING
UPPER TROUGH TO THE WEST AND NW.

RAIN CHANCES INCREASE SUBSTANTIALLY FOR MON NIGHT AND ESPECIALLY FOR
TUE AS THE UPPER TROUGH DEEPENS SIGNIFICANTLY...WITH SFC LOW
PRESSURE DEVELOPING TO THE SOUTH AND LIFTING NE ACROSS PORTIONS OF
THE STATE. INITIALLY...ONLY RAINFALL IS EXPECTED...BUT COLDER AIR
WILL BEGIN TO SURGE SE INTO THE STATE BEHIND THE COLD FRONT THAT
WILL PUSH THROUGH ON TUE. TUE WILL BE A DAY WHERE TEMPS WILL LIKELY
BE WARMEST IN THE MORNING HRS...THEN DECREASE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.
AT THIS TIME...KEEP PRECIP ONLY LIQUID AS TEMPS WILL REMAIN WARM
ENOUGH THROUGH THE PERIOD FOR PRECIP TO REMAIN ALL RAIN.
HOWEVER...THERE LOOKS TO BE INCREASING POTENTIAL FOR A BRIEF SWITCH
OVER TO SOME WINTRY PRECIP TUE NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM...TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY

TUESDAY NIGHT...THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL BE TO THE EAST OF
ARKANSAS. HOWEVER...THE UPPER TROUGH WILL BE MOVING THROUGH BEHIND
IT. WITH ADDITIONAL UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT...AND MOISTURE LINGERING
BEHIND THE SYSTEM...PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL CONTINUE INTO THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS. AT THIS POINT...IT DOES LOOK LIKE PRECIPITATION
WILL BE MIXED WITH AND POSSIBLY CHANGE OVER TO SNOW CENTRAL AND
NORTH BEFORE COMING TO AN END WEDNESDAY MORNING.

WEAK SURFACE RIDGING WILL PASS THROUGH THE REGION BEHIND THE
SYSTEM...AND BY CHRISTMAS...WINDS SHOULD BE BACK FROM THE SOUTH...WITH
TEMPERATURES WARMING INTO THE 50S TO NEAR 60 DEGREES. ANOTHER
FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL AFFECT THE AREA ON FRIDAY...BRINGING RAIN
CHANCES BACK TO THE FORECAST.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BATESVILLE AR     46  30  49  37 /  10   0  10  10
CAMDEN AR         51  34  55  41 /   0   0  10  10
HARRISON AR       45  32  48  37 /  10  10  10  10
HOT SPRINGS AR    48  34  52  40 /  10  10  10  10
LITTLE ROCK   AR  48  32  51  39 /  10   0  10  10
MONTICELLO AR     50  34  54  42 /  10   0  10  10
MOUNT IDA AR      48  34  51  40 /  10  10  10  10
MOUNTAIN HOME AR  45  33  49  38 /  10  10  10  10
NEWPORT AR        46  30  49  38 /  10   0  10  10
PINE BLUFF AR     48  33  52  40 /  10   0  10  10
RUSSELLVILLE AR   49  34  52  39 /  10  10  10  10
SEARCY AR         46  30  49  37 /  10   0  10  10
STUTTGART AR      48  32  51  39 /  10   0  10  10
&&

.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...62 / LONG TERM...57






000
FXUS64 KLZK 200821
AFDLZK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
221 AM CST SAT DEC 20 2014

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY

LOW CLOUDS AND FOG CONTINUE ACROSS THE CWA EARLY THIS MORNING AS THE
LOWER LEVEL OF THE ATMOSPHERE REMAINS DECOUPLED FROM THE OVERALL
FLOW ABOVE 850 MB. WHILE SOME SPOTS COULD SEE SOME DENSE FOG...MOST
SITES WILL SEE VIS REMAIN OVER 1 MILE. WHILE FOG WILL SLOWLY
DISSIPATE LATER THIS MORNING...DO EXPECT THE LOW CLOUDS TO PERSIST
FOR MUCH OF THE DAY WITH WEAK HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SFC UP TO ABOUT
THE 850 MB LEVEL...ALLOWING FOR VERY LITTLE IF ANY MIXING FOR A
CLEARING SKY. WILL ALSO SEE POTENTIAL FOR SOME DZ THROUGH EARLY
AFTERNOON. THERE MAY BE A FEW BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS LATE THIS
AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING HRS...BUT ONLY IF AT LEAST SOME MIXING
THROUGH THE LOWER LEVELS FROM ALOFT CAN INITIATE. WILL KEEP TEMPS
COOL AGAIN FOR THIS SAT...REMAINING IN THE 40S. THE EXCEPTION WILL
BE ACROSS THE SE WHERE THERE MAY BE A BETTER SHOT AT SEEING THE
CLOUDS BREAK.

THERE WILL BE A BETTER CHANCE FOR SEEING SOME SUNSHINE FOR SUN AS
FLOW ALOFT WILL BECOME SW OVER THE STATE...AND WILL LIKELY SEE MORE
SUBSTANTIAL MIXING. AS A RESULT...SHOULD SEE HIGHS WARM INTO THE
50S IN MANY LOCATIONS.

THE POTENTIAL FOR SEEING SUNSHINE WILL BE SHORT LIVED HOWEVER AS
MOISTURE LEVELS BEGIN TO INCREASE AGAIN BY MON ACROSS THE REGION AS
FLOW ALOFT WILL PERSIST FROM THE SW. RAIN CHANCES WILL BE ON THE
INCREASE AS A RESULT...ESPECIALLY WITH THE APPROACH OF A DEEPENING
UPPER TROUGH TO THE WEST AND NW.

RAIN CHANCES INCREASE SUBSTANTIALLY FOR MON NIGHT AND ESPECIALLY FOR
TUE AS THE UPPER TROUGH DEEPENS SIGNIFICANTLY...WITH SFC LOW
PRESSURE DEVELOPING TO THE SOUTH AND LIFTING NE ACROSS PORTIONS OF
THE STATE. INITIALLY...ONLY RAINFALL IS EXPECTED...BUT COLDER AIR
WILL BEGIN TO SURGE SE INTO THE STATE BEHIND THE COLD FRONT THAT
WILL PUSH THROUGH ON TUE. TUE WILL BE A DAY WHERE TEMPS WILL LIKELY
BE WARMEST IN THE MORNING HRS...THEN DECREASE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.
AT THIS TIME...KEEP PRECIP ONLY LIQUID AS TEMPS WILL REMAIN WARM
ENOUGH THROUGH THE PERIOD FOR PRECIP TO REMAIN ALL RAIN.
HOWEVER...THERE LOOKS TO BE INCREASING POTENTIAL FOR A BRIEF SWITCH
OVER TO SOME WINTRY PRECIP TUE NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM...TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY

TUESDAY NIGHT...THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL BE TO THE EAST OF
ARKANSAS. HOWEVER...THE UPPER TROUGH WILL BE MOVING THROUGH BEHIND
IT. WITH ADDITIONAL UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT...AND MOISTURE LINGERING
BEHIND THE SYSTEM...PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL CONTINUE INTO THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS. AT THIS POINT...IT DOES LOOK LIKE PRECIPITATION
WILL BE MIXED WITH AND POSSIBLY CHANGE OVER TO SNOW CENTRAL AND
NORTH BEFORE COMING TO AN END WEDNESDAY MORNING.

WEAK SURFACE RIDGING WILL PASS THROUGH THE REGION BEHIND THE
SYSTEM...AND BY CHRISTMAS...WINDS SHOULD BE BACK FROM THE SOUTH...WITH
TEMPERATURES WARMING INTO THE 50S TO NEAR 60 DEGREES. ANOTHER
FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL AFFECT THE AREA ON FRIDAY...BRINGING RAIN
CHANCES BACK TO THE FORECAST.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BATESVILLE AR     46  30  49  37 /  10   0  10  10
CAMDEN AR         51  34  55  41 /   0   0  10  10
HARRISON AR       45  32  48  37 /  10  10  10  10
HOT SPRINGS AR    48  34  52  40 /  10  10  10  10
LITTLE ROCK   AR  48  32  51  39 /  10   0  10  10
MONTICELLO AR     50  34  54  42 /  10   0  10  10
MOUNT IDA AR      48  34  51  40 /  10  10  10  10
MOUNTAIN HOME AR  45  33  49  38 /  10  10  10  10
NEWPORT AR        46  30  49  38 /  10   0  10  10
PINE BLUFF AR     48  33  52  40 /  10   0  10  10
RUSSELLVILLE AR   49  34  52  39 /  10  10  10  10
SEARCY AR         46  30  49  37 /  10   0  10  10
STUTTGART AR      48  32  51  39 /  10   0  10  10
&&

.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...62 / LONG TERM...57






000
FXUS64 KLZK 200503
AFDLZK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
1103 PM CST FRI DEC 19 2014

.AVIATION...
ABUNDANT LOW LOW MOISTURE REMAINS OVER THE AREA WITH GENERALLY
LIGHT EAST TO SOUTHEAST WINDS. THE MOISTURE WILL BEGIN TO DISSIPATE
SUNDAY AFTERNOON AS SOME DRIER TRIES TO ADVECT IN. IFR CONDITIONS
ACROSS THE NORTH WILL PREVAIL WITH VFR TO MVFR CONDITIONS AT THE
OTHER TERMINALS SLOWLY BECOMING MVFR TO IFR BY MORNING. ALL TAF
SITES ARE EXPECTED TO BE VFR TO CONCLUDE THE PERIOD. PRECIPITATION
WILL BE VERY SPOTTY IN NATURE AND MAINLY IN THE FORM OF DRIZZLE.
&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 305 PM CST FRI DEC 19 2014/

SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT

SURFACE LOW PRESSURE CONTINUES TO REMAIN ALONG THE GULF COAST WITH A
LARGE AMOUNT OF RAINFALL OCCURRING WELL SOUTH OF ARKANSAS AND
SHUNTING SIGNIFICANT MOISTURE FROM MAKING IT TO THE STATE. THIS WILL
LIMIT ANY SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL FROM OCCURRING TONIGHT AS UPPER LEVEL
SHORTWAVE MOVES THROUGH THE STATE. FOR TONIGHT...SHOWERS WILL
CONTINUE TO DIMINISH ACROSS SOUTHEAST ARKANSAS. WHILE CEILINGS WILL
LOWER ACROSS THE STATE. DO EXPECT SOME AREAS OF DRIZZLE TO DEVELOP
TONIGHT AS WELL AS SOME PATCHY FOG.

FOR SATURDAY AND SUNDAY NEAR ZONAL FLOW WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE
REGION WITH CLOUDY CONDITIONS FORECAST TO PERSIST WITH NEAR NORMAL
TEMPERATURES.

FOR MONDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL DEPART TO THE EAST AS SURFACE LOW
PUSHES EAST ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION. THIS WILL RESULT IN
STRONG SOUTHERLY WINDS AND TEMPERATURES WILL WARM ABOVE NORMAL FOR
MONDAY BEFORE A COLD FRONT AND ASSOCIATED PRECIPITATION MOVES
THROUGH THE STATE LATER IN THE DAY.

LONG TERM...TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY

A STRONG STORM SYSTEM WILL WIND UP OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST...WITH A
SECONDARY SYSTEM INTENSIFYING OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST AND
TRACKING TOWARD NEW ENGLAND. AFTER CHANCES FOR RAIN ON
TUESDAY...MOISTURE WRAPPING AROUND THE DOUBLE BARREL SYSTEM MAY
RESULT IN A FEW FLURRIES IN THE OZARKS EARLY WEDNESDAY.

OTHERWISE...THE SYSTEMS WILL MOVE AWAY...WITH MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS
ON WEDNESDAY AND CHRISTMAS DAY. SEASONAL TEMPERATURES ARE IN THE
FORECAST.

ON FRIDAY...AN ARCTIC COLD FRONT WILL BE ON THE MOVE IN THE
PLAINS...WITH WARMING AHEAD OF THE FRONT/ABOVE NORMAL READINGS.
CLOUDS/CHANCES FOR SHOWERS WILL RETURN TO THE AREA AHEAD OF THE
FRONT.

COLDER AIR WILL SPILL INTO THE NORTHWEST HALF OF THE STATE FRIDAY
NIGHT AS THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH. RAIN MAY CHANGE TO LIGHT SNOW
IN THE NORTH/WEST BEFORE PRECIPITATION ENDS.
&&

.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&

$$

AVIATION...56/57




000
FXUS64 KLZK 200503
AFDLZK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
1103 PM CST FRI DEC 19 2014

.AVIATION...
ABUNDANT LOW LOW MOISTURE REMAINS OVER THE AREA WITH GENERALLY
LIGHT EAST TO SOUTHEAST WINDS. THE MOISTURE WILL BEGIN TO DISSIPATE
SUNDAY AFTERNOON AS SOME DRIER TRIES TO ADVECT IN. IFR CONDITIONS
ACROSS THE NORTH WILL PREVAIL WITH VFR TO MVFR CONDITIONS AT THE
OTHER TERMINALS SLOWLY BECOMING MVFR TO IFR BY MORNING. ALL TAF
SITES ARE EXPECTED TO BE VFR TO CONCLUDE THE PERIOD. PRECIPITATION
WILL BE VERY SPOTTY IN NATURE AND MAINLY IN THE FORM OF DRIZZLE.
&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 305 PM CST FRI DEC 19 2014/

SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT

SURFACE LOW PRESSURE CONTINUES TO REMAIN ALONG THE GULF COAST WITH A
LARGE AMOUNT OF RAINFALL OCCURRING WELL SOUTH OF ARKANSAS AND
SHUNTING SIGNIFICANT MOISTURE FROM MAKING IT TO THE STATE. THIS WILL
LIMIT ANY SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL FROM OCCURRING TONIGHT AS UPPER LEVEL
SHORTWAVE MOVES THROUGH THE STATE. FOR TONIGHT...SHOWERS WILL
CONTINUE TO DIMINISH ACROSS SOUTHEAST ARKANSAS. WHILE CEILINGS WILL
LOWER ACROSS THE STATE. DO EXPECT SOME AREAS OF DRIZZLE TO DEVELOP
TONIGHT AS WELL AS SOME PATCHY FOG.

FOR SATURDAY AND SUNDAY NEAR ZONAL FLOW WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE
REGION WITH CLOUDY CONDITIONS FORECAST TO PERSIST WITH NEAR NORMAL
TEMPERATURES.

FOR MONDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL DEPART TO THE EAST AS SURFACE LOW
PUSHES EAST ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION. THIS WILL RESULT IN
STRONG SOUTHERLY WINDS AND TEMPERATURES WILL WARM ABOVE NORMAL FOR
MONDAY BEFORE A COLD FRONT AND ASSOCIATED PRECIPITATION MOVES
THROUGH THE STATE LATER IN THE DAY.

LONG TERM...TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY

A STRONG STORM SYSTEM WILL WIND UP OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST...WITH A
SECONDARY SYSTEM INTENSIFYING OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST AND
TRACKING TOWARD NEW ENGLAND. AFTER CHANCES FOR RAIN ON
TUESDAY...MOISTURE WRAPPING AROUND THE DOUBLE BARREL SYSTEM MAY
RESULT IN A FEW FLURRIES IN THE OZARKS EARLY WEDNESDAY.

OTHERWISE...THE SYSTEMS WILL MOVE AWAY...WITH MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS
ON WEDNESDAY AND CHRISTMAS DAY. SEASONAL TEMPERATURES ARE IN THE
FORECAST.

ON FRIDAY...AN ARCTIC COLD FRONT WILL BE ON THE MOVE IN THE
PLAINS...WITH WARMING AHEAD OF THE FRONT/ABOVE NORMAL READINGS.
CLOUDS/CHANCES FOR SHOWERS WILL RETURN TO THE AREA AHEAD OF THE
FRONT.

COLDER AIR WILL SPILL INTO THE NORTHWEST HALF OF THE STATE FRIDAY
NIGHT AS THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH. RAIN MAY CHANGE TO LIGHT SNOW
IN THE NORTH/WEST BEFORE PRECIPITATION ENDS.
&&

.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&

$$

AVIATION...56/57





000
FXUS64 KLZK 192353
AFDLZK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
553 PM CST FRI DEC 19 2014

AVIATION...
DEPARTING LOW PRESSURE TO THE SOUTH AND EAST OF THE STATE WILL
KEEP ABUNDANT LOW TO MID LEVEL MOISTURE IN PLACE OVER THE AREA
UNTIL LATE IN THE PERIOD WHEN CONDITIONS WILL BEGIN TO IMPROVE.
WIDESPREAD IFR TO MVFR ARE EXPECTED FOR THE MAJORITY OF THE PERIOD
ALTHOUGH THERE COULD BE BRIEF PERIODS OF VFR CONDITIONS...MAINLY
THIS EVENING AND AFTER 21Z ON SATURDAY. EASTERLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE,

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 305 PM CST FRI DEC 19 2014/

SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT

SURFACE LOW PRESSURE CONTINUES TO REMAIN ALONG THE GULF COAST WITH A
LARGE AMOUNT OF RAINFALL OCCURRING WELL SOUTH OF ARKANSAS AND
SHUNTING SIGNIFICANT MOISTURE FROM MAKING IT TO THE STATE. THIS WILL
LIMIT ANY SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL FROM OCCURRING TONIGHT AS UPPER LEVEL
SHORTWAVE MOVES THROUGH THE STATE. FOR TONIGHT...SHOWERS WILL
CONTINUE TO DIMINISH ACROSS SOUTHEAST ARKANSAS. WHILE CEILINGS WILL
LOWER ACROSS THE STATE. DO EXPECT SOME AREAS OF DRIZZLE TO DEVELOP
TONIGHT AS WELL AS SOME PATCHY FOG.

FOR SATURDAY AND SUNDAY NEAR ZONAL FLOW WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE
REGION WITH CLOUDY CONDITIONS FORECAST TO PERSIST WITH NEAR NORMAL
TEMPERATURES.

FOR MONDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL DEPART TO THE EAST AS SURFACE LOW
PUSHES EAST ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION. THIS WILL RESULT IN
STRONG SOUTHERLY WINDS AND TEMPERATURES WILL WARM ABOVE NORMAL FOR
MONDAY BEFORE A COLD FRONT AND ASSOCIATED PRECIPITATION MOVES
THROUGH THE STATE LATER IN THE DAY.

LONG TERM...TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY

A STRONG STORM SYSTEM WILL WIND UP OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST...WITH A
SECONDARY SYSTEM INTENSIFYING OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST AND
TRACKING TOWARD NEW ENGLAND. AFTER CHANCES FOR RAIN ON
TUESDAY...MOISTURE WRAPPING AROUND THE DOUBLE BARREL SYSTEM MAY
RESULT IN A FEW FLURRIES IN THE OZARKS EARLY WEDNESDAY.

OTHERWISE...THE SYSTEMS WILL MOVE AWAY...WITH MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS
ON WEDNESDAY AND CHRISTMAS DAY. SEASONAL TEMPERATURES ARE IN THE
FORECAST.

ON FRIDAY...AN ARCTIC COLD FRONT WILL BE ON THE MOVE IN THE
PLAINS...WITH WARMING AHEAD OF THE FRONT/ABOVE NORMAL READINGS.
CLOUDS/CHANCES FOR SHOWERS WILL RETURN TO THE AREA AHEAD OF THE
FRONT.

COLDER AIR WILL SPILL INTO THE NORTHWEST HALF OF THE STATE FRIDAY
NIGHT AS THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH. RAIN MAY CHANGE TO LIGHT SNOW
IN THE NORTH/WEST BEFORE PRECIPITATION ENDS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BATESVILLE AR     32  47  30  48 /  10  10   0  10
CAMDEN AR         37  51  34  53 /  20  10  10  10
HARRISON AR       33  45  33  48 /  10  10  10  10
HOT SPRINGS AR    36  49  33  50 /  10  10  10  10
LITTLE ROCK   AR  35  50  33  50 /  10  10  10  10
MONTICELLO AR     37  50  35  53 /  30  10   0  10
MOUNT IDA AR      33  50  30  51 /  10  10  10  10
MOUNTAIN HOME AR  33  47  33  49 /  10  10  10  10
NEWPORT AR        32  48  31  48 /  10  10   0  10
PINE BLUFF AR     36  48  32  50 /  30  10   0  10
RUSSELLVILLE AR   37  51  33  50 /  10  10  10  10
SEARCY AR         32  47  28  47 /  10  10   0  10
STUTTGART AR      36  48  32  49 /  20  10   0  10
&&

.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&

$$

56
AVIATION...99





000
FXUS64 KLZK 192353
AFDLZK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
553 PM CST FRI DEC 19 2014

AVIATION...
DEPARTING LOW PRESSURE TO THE SOUTH AND EAST OF THE STATE WILL
KEEP ABUNDANT LOW TO MID LEVEL MOISTURE IN PLACE OVER THE AREA
UNTIL LATE IN THE PERIOD WHEN CONDITIONS WILL BEGIN TO IMPROVE.
WIDESPREAD IFR TO MVFR ARE EXPECTED FOR THE MAJORITY OF THE PERIOD
ALTHOUGH THERE COULD BE BRIEF PERIODS OF VFR CONDITIONS...MAINLY
THIS EVENING AND AFTER 21Z ON SATURDAY. EASTERLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE,

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 305 PM CST FRI DEC 19 2014/

SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT

SURFACE LOW PRESSURE CONTINUES TO REMAIN ALONG THE GULF COAST WITH A
LARGE AMOUNT OF RAINFALL OCCURRING WELL SOUTH OF ARKANSAS AND
SHUNTING SIGNIFICANT MOISTURE FROM MAKING IT TO THE STATE. THIS WILL
LIMIT ANY SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL FROM OCCURRING TONIGHT AS UPPER LEVEL
SHORTWAVE MOVES THROUGH THE STATE. FOR TONIGHT...SHOWERS WILL
CONTINUE TO DIMINISH ACROSS SOUTHEAST ARKANSAS. WHILE CEILINGS WILL
LOWER ACROSS THE STATE. DO EXPECT SOME AREAS OF DRIZZLE TO DEVELOP
TONIGHT AS WELL AS SOME PATCHY FOG.

FOR SATURDAY AND SUNDAY NEAR ZONAL FLOW WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE
REGION WITH CLOUDY CONDITIONS FORECAST TO PERSIST WITH NEAR NORMAL
TEMPERATURES.

FOR MONDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL DEPART TO THE EAST AS SURFACE LOW
PUSHES EAST ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION. THIS WILL RESULT IN
STRONG SOUTHERLY WINDS AND TEMPERATURES WILL WARM ABOVE NORMAL FOR
MONDAY BEFORE A COLD FRONT AND ASSOCIATED PRECIPITATION MOVES
THROUGH THE STATE LATER IN THE DAY.

LONG TERM...TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY

A STRONG STORM SYSTEM WILL WIND UP OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST...WITH A
SECONDARY SYSTEM INTENSIFYING OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST AND
TRACKING TOWARD NEW ENGLAND. AFTER CHANCES FOR RAIN ON
TUESDAY...MOISTURE WRAPPING AROUND THE DOUBLE BARREL SYSTEM MAY
RESULT IN A FEW FLURRIES IN THE OZARKS EARLY WEDNESDAY.

OTHERWISE...THE SYSTEMS WILL MOVE AWAY...WITH MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS
ON WEDNESDAY AND CHRISTMAS DAY. SEASONAL TEMPERATURES ARE IN THE
FORECAST.

ON FRIDAY...AN ARCTIC COLD FRONT WILL BE ON THE MOVE IN THE
PLAINS...WITH WARMING AHEAD OF THE FRONT/ABOVE NORMAL READINGS.
CLOUDS/CHANCES FOR SHOWERS WILL RETURN TO THE AREA AHEAD OF THE
FRONT.

COLDER AIR WILL SPILL INTO THE NORTHWEST HALF OF THE STATE FRIDAY
NIGHT AS THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH. RAIN MAY CHANGE TO LIGHT SNOW
IN THE NORTH/WEST BEFORE PRECIPITATION ENDS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BATESVILLE AR     32  47  30  48 /  10  10   0  10
CAMDEN AR         37  51  34  53 /  20  10  10  10
HARRISON AR       33  45  33  48 /  10  10  10  10
HOT SPRINGS AR    36  49  33  50 /  10  10  10  10
LITTLE ROCK   AR  35  50  33  50 /  10  10  10  10
MONTICELLO AR     37  50  35  53 /  30  10   0  10
MOUNT IDA AR      33  50  30  51 /  10  10  10  10
MOUNTAIN HOME AR  33  47  33  49 /  10  10  10  10
NEWPORT AR        32  48  31  48 /  10  10   0  10
PINE BLUFF AR     36  48  32  50 /  30  10   0  10
RUSSELLVILLE AR   37  51  33  50 /  10  10  10  10
SEARCY AR         32  47  28  47 /  10  10   0  10
STUTTGART AR      36  48  32  49 /  20  10   0  10
&&

.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&

$$

56
AVIATION...99






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