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000
FXUS64 KLZK 232339 AAA
AFDLZK

Area Forecast Discussion...Update for Aviation
National Weather Service Little Rock AR
635 PM CDT MON 23 2016

.Aviation...

Overall VFR flight conditions, with ceilings, are expected in the
next 24 hours. Ceilings will be seen, with areas of MVFR with
showers and isolated thunderstorms, mainly over western AR. Lighter
showers or just light rain will be seen over mainly central to
eastern AR. Winds will be NE to SE at 5 to 10 mph this evening and
overnight. Winds will variable at 5 to 10 mph around showers. On
Tuesday, ceilings will lower with additional showers and isolated
thunderstorms possible, again mainly over western to central AR.
(59)

&&

.Prev Discussion.../ Issued 241 PM CDT MON MAY 23 2016/

.SHORT TERM...Tonight Through Wednesday
An MCV...analyzed over northeast Oklahoma at 19z...is expected to
continue to move eastward through the evening hours. Scattered
convection is associated with this system...with the stronger
activity supported by greater instability.

Overall available convective energy is expected to increase during
this period. Low level warm advection...along with developing mesoscale
features...will support at least scattered convection through the
rest of this period. Additional MCS activity is likely across the
central/southern plains during this period...which also may
affect the forecast area while weakening as they approach.

&&

.LONG TERM...Wednesday Night Through Monday
Extended term still looking to be rather wet with POPs in virtually
every period.

Shortwave over the Southwestern US is still on track to progress
eastward and lift into the central plains by this weekend. The
forecast area will remain under a southwesterly flow aloft, and
several impulses are anticipated to ripple across the area.

At the surface high pressure will generally remain to the east of
the area, keeping a moist southerly flow in place. Disturbances
aloft, instability from daytime heating, and outflow boundaries will
be focal points for convection during the time frame.

With all of that said, highest POPs will be in the Thursday-Saturday
time frame as the shortwave progresses eastward, and POPs will
be notably lower Saturday evening thru the end of the extended term.

With the southerly flow in place, and dewpoints in the 60`s, it`s
going to feel a lot more like late May than it has recently. Max
temps will be back to normal, or a bit above.&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Batesville AR     62  82  68  86 /  30  40  30  30
Camden AR         66  87  71  88 /  20  20  20  20
Harrison AR       61  79  66  83 /  30  40  30  30
Hot Springs AR    66  84  71  85 /  30  30  20  20
Little Rock   AR  65  85  70  87 /  30  30  20  20
Monticello AR     65  87  70  88 /  20  20  20  20
Mount Ida AR      66  82  70  83 /  30  30  20  20
Mountain Home AR  61  80  66  85 /  30  50  30  40
Newport AR        63  84  68  86 /  30  40  30  30
Pine Bluff AR     65  86  69  87 /  20  20  20  20
Russellville AR   64  83  69  84 /  30  40  30  30
Searcy AR         62  84  68  86 /  30  40  30  20
Stuttgart AR      65  85  70  87 /  30  30  20  20
&&

.LZK Watches/Warnings/Advisories...NONE.
&&

$$

Short Term...55 / Long Term...53




000
FXUS64 KLZK 231725
AFDLZK

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Little Rock AR
1225 PM CDT MON MAY 23 2016

.AVIATION...
MCV centered just to the east of Tulsa will continue to promote
scattered convection...however activity will encounter a
drier...and more stable atmospheric column as it moves eastward.
A southerly sfc flow at 10-17 kts will decrease to 5-10kt shortly
after 00z.

55

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED /

UPDATE...
Have made adjustments to near term forecasts to account for
approaching MCS activity across western sections.

55

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED /

AVIATION...
High cirrus clouds are across much of Arkansas this
morning...which are mostly coming from an MCS over Oklahoma and
Texas. This storm system continues marching east however should be
dissipating once it hits the Arkansas border. Much drier air and
lower dew points are just across the Oklahoma border. Rain chances
will be slight today but will be best in the west. Rain chances
will increase this afternoon and tonight as another short wave
will move through the area.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED /

SHORT TERM...Today Through Tuesday Night
A strong upper ridge will be over Arkansas today, with an upper low
over the east coast and over the Pacific Northwest. This pattern
will continue through Tuesday.

An MCS continues across central and southern Oklahoma this morning.
The northern portion is weakening while the southern portion
continues to build eastward. This may affect Arkansas by mid
day...but would expect weakening by the time it reaches Arkansas.
Models indicate unsettled weather to start the week. Another MCS
should develop in eastern Oklahoma tonight and affect Arkansas
overnight into Tuesday. Yet another short wave will continue the
rain chances into and through Tuesday night. Highs today and Tuesday
will be in the 80s.

LONG TERM...Wednesday Through Sunday
The extended period will feature ridging over central/eastern
sections of the country, with troughing out west. Between these
features will be a front in the Plains that will remain stalled
through much of the long term.

East of the front, have isolated to scattered showers and
thunderstorms in the forecast each day. By Friday/Saturday, there
are indications that a system aloft will rotate around the base of
the western trough, and will bring better chances of rain
locally.

Even so, widespread heavy rain is not expected at this time. If
there is any severe weather, it will be spotty. Temperatures will
tend to be above average.

&&

.LZK Watches/Warnings/Advisories...NONE.
&&

$$


Aviation...99




000
FXUS64 KLZK 231229
AFDLZK

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Little Rock AR
729 AM CDT MON MAY 23 2016

.UPDATE...
Have made adjustments to near term forecasts to account for
approaching MCS activity across western sections.

55

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED /

AVIATION...
High cirrus clouds are across much of Arkansas this
morning...which are mostly coming from an MCS over Oklahoma and
Texas. This storm system continues marching east however should be
dissipating once it hits the Arkansas border. Much drier air and
lower dew points are just across the Oklahoma border. Rain chances
will be slight today but will be best in the west. Rain chances
will increase this afternoon and tonight as another short wave
will move through the area.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED /

SHORT TERM...Today Through Tuesday Night
A strong upper ridge will be over Arkansas today, with an upper low
over the east coast and over the Pacific Northwest. This pattern
will continue through Tuesday.

An MCS continues across central and southern Oklahoma this morning.
The northern portion is weakening while the southern portion
continues to build eastward. This may affect Arkansas by mid
day...but would expect weakening by the time it reaches Arkansas.
Models indicate unsettled weather to start the week. Another MCS
should develop in eastern Oklahoma tonight and affect Arkansas
overnight into Tuesday. Yet another short wave will continue the
rain chances into and through Tuesday night. Highs today and Tuesday
will be in the 80s.

LONG TERM...Wednesday Through Sunday
The extended period will feature ridging over central/eastern
sections of the country, with troughing out west. Between these
features will be a front in the Plains that will remain stalled
through much of the long term.

East of the front, have isolated to scattered showers and
thunderstorms in the forecast each day. By Friday/Saturday, there
are indications that a system aloft will rotate around the base of
the western trough, and will bring better chances of rain
locally.

Even so, widespread heavy rain is not expected at this time. If
there is any severe weather, it will be spotty. Temperatures will
tend to be above average.

&&

.LZK Watches/Warnings/Advisories...NONE.
&&

$$


Aviation...99




000
FXUS64 KLZK 231147
AFDLZK

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Little Rock AR
647 AM CDT MON MAY 23 2016

.AVIATION...
High cirrus clouds are across much of Arkansas this
morning...which are mostly coming from an MCS over Oklahoma and
Texas. This storm system continues marching east however should be
dissipating once it hits the Arkansas border. Much drier air and
lower dew points are just across the Oklahoma border. Rain chances
will be slight today but will be best in the west. Rain chances
will increase this afternoon and tonight as another short wave
will move through the area.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED /

SHORT TERM...Today Through Tuesday Night
A strong upper ridge will be over Arkansas today, with an upper low
over the east coast and over the Pacific Northwest. This pattern
will continue through Tuesday.

An MCS continues across central and southern Oklahoma this morning.
The northern portion is weakening while the southern portion
continues to build eastward. This may affect Arkansas by mid
day...but would expect weakening by the time it reaches Arkansas.
Models indicate unsettled weather to start the week. Another MCS
should develop in eastern Oklahoma tonight and affect Arkansas
overnight into Tuesday. Yet another short wave will continue the
rain chances into and through Tuesday night. Highs today and Tuesday
will be in the 80s.

LONG TERM...Wednesday Through Sunday
The extended period will feature ridging over central/eastern
sections of the country, with troughing out west. Between these
features will be a front in the Plains that will remain stalled
through much of the long term.

East of the front, have isolated to scattered showers and
thunderstorms in the forecast each day. By Friday/Saturday, there
are indications that a system aloft will rotate around the base of
the western trough, and will bring better chances of rain
locally.

Even so, widespread heavy rain is not expected at this time. If
there is any severe weather, it will be spotty. Temperatures will
tend to be above average.

&&

.LZK Watches/Warnings/Advisories...NONE.
&&

$$


Aviation...51




000
FXUS64 KLZK 230154 AAB
AFDLZK

Area Forecast Discussion...Update
National Weather Service Little Rock AR
845 PM CDT SUN MAY 22 2016

.Discussion...

Overall forecast on track. Will only see some scattered to at times
overcast mid and high clouds stream in over AR tonight, from the
convection over the central Plains. This will cut down on the
chances of fog formation early Monday morning, so will not include
in forecast. Forecast lows will also be a degree or two above
current forecast values. Otherwise, late evening update will only
fine tune a few elements. Rain chances return to AR later Monday and
this week. (59)

&&

.Prev Discussion... /Issued 630 PM CDT SUN MAY 22 2016/

.Aviation...

Overall VFR flight conditions are expected in the next 24 hours.
Patchy areas of fog will be possible after midnight, but not
widespread. Clouds will gradually increase on Monday from the west,
with late day isolated showers possible over NW AR. Winds will be E
to SE at 3 to 8 mph or light and variable this evening and
overnight. Winds on Monday will be E to SE at 5 to 15 mph. (59)

&&

.Prev Discussion.../ Issued 241 PM CDT SUN MAY 22 2016/

.SHORT TERM...Tonight Through Tuesday
Recent observations indicate clear conditions are prevailing across
the forecast area. Some increased cloud cover is expected
overnight...however any convective development will remain to the
west of the area.

Overall precipitation chances will slowly increase during
this period. Best chances for precipitation appear after
12z Tuesday...as several forecast signals are present for MCS
type activity...to move in from the west and northwest. Forecasts
will reflect temporal and spatial uncertainties with regard to
this type of event.

&&

.LONG TERM...Tuesday Night Through Sunday
The period will start off with a weak ridge aloft over the
region...which will gradually shift east by mid week...with SW flow
aloft gradually increasing. As this happens...moisture levels will
continue to increase...and with some disturbances lifting NE over
the state in the SW flow aloft...rain chances will remain in the
forecast as this unsettled pattern continues. Keep rain chances in
the chance category for early in the period as there is no major
focus for precip...or timing of that precip for Tue night through
Thu...with isolated to scattered SHRA/TSRA possible.

By late Thu into Fri...the SW flow aloft will intensify further as
the upper trough to the west moves closer to the state. As a
result...expect increased rain chances with coverage of SHRA/TSRA
becoming more widespread. This will also be the time period that may
have better potential for some organized SVR WX given the upper
trough  moving closer. However...it`s a bit early to pinpoint the
exact SVR WX threat at this time.

Over the weekend...do keep some rain chances in the forecast...but
coverage may decrease as the flow aloft becomes weaker. As a
result...expect more pulse-type diurnally driven convection...with
the best potential for SHRA/TSRA during the afternoon heating.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Batesville AR     56  82  62  82 /  10  10  20  40
Camden AR         60  85  66  86 /  10  20  30  30
Harrison AR       55  79  61  80 /  10  20  30  40
Hot Springs AR    60  82  66  84 /  10  20  30  30
Little Rock   AR  60  83  65  85 /  10  20  20  30
Monticello AR     59  85  66  87 /  10  10  20  30
Mount Ida AR      59  81  65  82 /  10  20  30  30
Mountain Home AR  55  81  61  81 /  10  10  20  40
Newport AR        57  83  63  84 /   0  10  20  40
Pine Bluff AR     59  83  65  85 /  10  10  20  30
Russellville AR   58  82  64  83 /  10  20  30  40
Searcy AR         56  82  62  84 /  10  10  20  40
Stuttgart AR      60  83  65  85 /  10  10  20  30
&&

.LZK Watches/Warnings/Advisories...NONE.
&&

$$

Short Term...55 / Long Term...62




000
FXUS64 KLZK 222329 AAA
AFDLZK

Area Forecast Discussion...Update for Aviation
National Weather Service Little Rock AR
630 PM CDT SUN MAY 22 2016

.Aviation...

Overall VFR flight conditions are expected in the next 24 hours.
Patchy areas of fog will be possible after midnight, but not
widespread. Clouds will gradually increase on Monday from the west,
with late day isolated showers possible over NW AR. Winds will be E
to SE at 3 to 8 mph or light and variable this evening and
overnight. Winds on Monday will be E to SE at 5 to 15 mph. (59)

&&

.Prev Discussion.../ Issued 241 PM CDT SUN MAY 22 2016/

.SHORT TERM...Tonight Through Tuesday
Recent observations indicate clear conditions are prevailing across
the forecast area. Some increased cloud cover is expected
overnight...however any convective development will remain to the
west of the area.

Overall precipitation chances will slowly increase during
this period. Best chances for precipitation appear after
12z Tuesday...as several forecast signals are present for MCS
type activity...to move in from the west and northwest. Forecasts
will reflect temporal and spatial uncertainties with regard to
this type of event.

&&

.LONG TERM...Tuesday Night Through Sunday
The period will start off with a weak ridge aloft over the
region...which will gradually shift east by mid week...with SW flow
aloft gradually increasing. As this happens...moisture levels will
continue to increase...and with some disturbances lifting NE over
the state in the SW flow aloft...rain chances will remain in the
forecast as this unsettled pattern continues. Keep rain chances in
the chance category for early in the period as there is no major
focus for precip...or timing of that precip for Tue night through
Thu...with isolated to scattered SHRA/TSRA possible.

By late Thu into Fri...the SW flow aloft will intensify further as
the upper trough to the west moves closer to the state. As a
result...expect increased rain chances with coverage of SHRA/TSRA
becoming more widespread. This will also be the time period that may
have better potential for some organized SVR WX given the upper
trough  moving closer. However...it`s a bit early to pinpoint the
exact SVR WX threat at this time.

Over the weekend...do keep some rain chances in the forecast...but
coverage may decrease as the flow aloft becomes weaker. As a
result...expect more pulse-type diurnally driven convection...with
the best potential for SHRA/TSRA during the afternoon heating.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Batesville AR     56  82  62  82 /  10  10  20  40
Camden AR         60  85  66  86 /  10  20  30  30
Harrison AR       55  79  61  80 /  10  20  30  40
Hot Springs AR    60  82  66  84 /  10  20  30  30
Little Rock   AR  60  83  65  85 /  10  20  20  30
Monticello AR     59  85  66  87 /  10  10  20  30
Mount Ida AR      59  81  65  82 /  10  20  30  30
Mountain Home AR  55  81  61  81 /  10  10  20  40
Newport AR        57  83  63  84 /   0  10  20  40
Pine Bluff AR     59  83  65  85 /  10  10  20  30
Russellville AR   58  82  64  83 /  10  20  30  40
Searcy AR         56  82  62  84 /  10  10  20  40
Stuttgart AR      60  83  65  85 /  10  10  20  30
&&

.LZK Watches/Warnings/Advisories...NONE.
&&

$$

Short Term...55 / Long Term...62




000
FXUS64 KLZK 221941
AFDLZK

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Little Rock AR
241 PM CDT SUN MAY 22 2016

.SHORT TERM...Tonight Through Tuesday
Recent obserations inidcate clear conditions are prevailng across
the forecast area. Some increased cloud cover is expected
overnight...however any convective development will remain to the
west of the area.

Overall precipitation chances will slowly increase during
this period. Best chances for precipitation appear after
12z Tuesday...as several forecast signals are present for MCS
type activity...to move in from the west and northwest. Forecasts
will reflect temporal and spatial uncertainties with regard to
this type of event.

&&

.LONG TERM...Tuesday Night Through Sunday
The period will start off with a weak ridge aloft over the
region...which will gradually shift east by mid week...with SW flow
aloft gradually increasing. As this happens...moisture levels will
continue to increase...and with some disturbances lifting NE over
the state in the SW flow aloft...rain chances will remain in the
forecast as this unsettled pattern continues. Keep rain chances in
the chance category for early in the period as there is no major
focus for precip...or timing of that precip for Tue night through
Thu...with isolated to scattered SHRA/TSRA possible.

By late Thu into Fri...the SW flow aloft will intensify further as
the upper trough to the west moves closer to the state. As a
result...expect increased rain chances with coverage of SHRA/TSRA
becoming more widespread. This will also be the time period that may
have better potential for some organized SVR WX given the upper
trough  moving closer. However...it`s a bit early to pinpoint the
exact SVR WX threat at this time.

Over the weekend...do keep some rain chances in the forecast...but
coverage may decrease as the flow aloft becomes weaker. As a
result...expect more pulse-type diurnally driven convection...with
the best potential for SHRA/TSRA during the afternoon heating.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Batesville AR     56  82  62  82 /  10  10  20  40
Camden AR         60  85  66  86 /  10  20  30  30
Harrison AR       55  79  61  80 /  10  20  30  40
Hot Springs AR    60  82  66  84 /  10  20  30  30
Little Rock   AR  60  83  65  85 /  10  20  20  30
Monticello AR     59  85  66  87 /  10  10  20  30
Mount Ida AR      59  81  65  82 /  10  20  30  30
Mountain Home AR  55  81  61  81 /  10  10  20  40
Newport AR        57  83  63  84 /   0  10  20  40
Pine Bluff AR     59  83  65  85 /  10  10  20  30
Russellville AR   58  82  64  83 /  10  20  30  40
Searcy AR         56  82  62  84 /  10  10  20  40
Stuttgart AR      60  83  65  85 /  10  10  20  30
&&

.LZK Watches/Warnings/Advisories...NONE.
&&

$$

Short Term...55 / Long Term...62




000
FXUS64 KLZK 221257
AFDLZK

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Little Rock AR
757 AM CDT SUN MAY 22 2016

.UPDATE...
Near term forecasts have been updated to remove mention of light
morning precipitation.

55

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED /

AVIATION...
A weak short wave continues to move through the area but the
showers in the northeast earlier seem to have dissipated. Mainly
high and a few mid level clouds continue over the area. Light east
winds are expected today. Clouds are expected to dissipate
tongiht. VFR condtions will continue through the period.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED /

SHORT TERM...Today Through Monday Night
A strong upper ridge will be over the plains today, with an upper
trough over the east coast and an upper low over the Pacific
Northwest. This upper ridge will not move east of the area until
late Monday.

KLZK radar and observations indicate light rain falling in northeast
Arkansas. Decided to add slight chance pops for a few hours this
morning. Models indicate this short wave will move out of the area
before noon. Clouds will diminish during late morning and afternoon.
The next short wave will move through the state Monday and this will
bring an increase in rain chances. Moisture will be lacking so
amounts will be light and pops have been lowered a bit. High
temperatures will mainly be in the 80s each day, with lows in the
50s and 60s.

LONG TERM...Tuesday Through Saturday
The extended period will begin with a trough of low pressure in the
eastern United States, ridging in the middle of the country and
a deepening trough out west. This blocking pattern will result in
little movement of weather features, and no big changes in the
coming days.

As the period progresses, the trough to the east will slowly head
out into the Atlantic Ocean. Ridging will take over in the east, and
will continue toward the Mississippi River. The trough to the west
will wobble in our direction. As the latter happens, a nearly
stationary front in the Plains will inch toward Arkansas. Ahead
of the front, isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms are
expected, especially during the heat of the afternoon.

A this point, widespread heavy rain is not in the forecast,
and any severe weather will be isolated. Temperatures through
much of the period will be above average.

&&

.LZK Watches/Warnings/Advisories...NONE.
&&

$$


Aviation...99




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