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000
FXUS64 KLZK 290554
AFDLZK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
1254 AM CDT SAT AUG 29 2015

.AVIATION...

VFR CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST AT ALL TAF SITES EXCEPT KPBF...WHERE
SOME PATCHY FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE DURING THE MORNING HOURS. SOME
LIGHT SHOWERS AND PERHAPS A FEW THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH A
WEAK COLD FRONT WILL PUSH INTO THE STATE...MAINLY ACROSS NORTHERN
AND WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE STATE. DO EXPECT FAIRLY LOW COVERAGE
WITH THESE STORMS AND AT THIS POINT JUST INCLUDED VCTS IN THE TAFS
AT KHRO/KBPK/KHOT/KADF.


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 613 PM CDT FRI AUG 28 2015/

AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE PERIOD. THERE
MAY BE A BRIEF SHOWER EARLY SATURDAY MORNING IN THE NORTH AS A
FRONTAL BOUNDARY MOVES INTO THE AREA. TAFS OUT SHORTLY.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 237 PM CDT FRI AUG 28 2015/

DISCUSSION...

MAIN CONCERNS THIS FORECAST CYCLE ARE CHANCES OF LIGHT CONVECTION
IN NW AR THIS EVENING TO TONIGHT...THEN INTO THE WEEKEND OVER A
BIT MORE OF NORTHERN AND CENTRAL AR. THEN NEXT CHANCE OF RAIN
LOOKS TO BE WELL INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. TEMPS WILL BE
AROUND NORMAL VALUES THROUGH THE PERIOD. CONTINUED MODERATE WILD
FIRE DANGER WITH SOME BURN BANS OVER PARTS OF CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN
AR.

LIGHT CONVECTION OVER EASTERN OK DID MAKE PROGRESS EAST BUT HAS
WEAKENED AS IT MOVED EAST. ONLY LIGHT SHOWERS SEEN. THIS WAS ASSOCIATED
WITH AN UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE ENERGY. THE UPPER TROUGH OVER THE
EASTERN PLAINS HAS ALLOWED THE WEAK COLD FRONT TO DRIFT A BIT MORE
EAST...OVER CENTRAL KS...TO EASTERN NEB. MOISTURE LEVELS HAVE COME
UP A LITTLE OVER AR...WITH DEW POINT TEMPS FROM THE UPPER 50S TO
LOWER 60S OVER MOST OF THE STATE...WHILE THE MID 60S OVER THE FAR
WEST.

SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT

MODELS ARE CONSISTENT WITH BRINGING MORE UPPER SHORT WAVE ENERGY
INTO NORTHERN AR LATER TONIGHT AND ESPECIALLY ON SATURDAY...AND
FORECAST WILL INDICATE THIS. ALTHOUGH...COVERAGE DOES NOT LOOK
HIGH AND MAINLY A SLIGHT CHANCE TO LOW CHANCE OF RAIN...WITH ONLY
ISOLATED THUNDER...IS EXPECTED...AND THIS IS ABOUT AS HIGH I CAN
GO AT THIS TIME. PRECIP WATER VALUES DO COME UP OVER 1 INCH OVER
THE WEEKEND...AND MAY NEED A BIT MORE ISOLATED POP OVER THE
WEEKEND. AT THIS TIME...HAVE HELD CONVECTION CHANCES MAINLY OVER
PARTS OF NORTHERN AND CENTRAL AR...WITH POTENTIAL SHORT WAVE
ENERGY MAINLY OVER THESE AREAS. ON SUNDAY...HAVE MOVED POP CHANCES
A BIT FARTHER NORTH...BUT DUE TO UNCERTAINTY...MAY HAVE TO ADD A
BIT MORE POP CHANCES SUNDAY. INTO MONDAY...THE WEAK UPPER TROUGH
OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS CONTINUES TO WEAKEN MORE AND HAVE HELD
FORECAST DRY. AS MENTIONED EARLIER...UNCERTAINTY DOES EXIST AND
LATER FORECASTS MAY ADD SLIGHT CHANCES. TEMPS WILL OVERALL BE
AROUND NORMAL VALUES.

LONG TERM...TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...

AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL SET UP IN THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN HALF OF
THE COUNTRY DURING THE EXTENDED TERM...WITH A TROF ACROSS THE WEST.
IT APPEARS THAT A WEAK SHORTWAVE WILL SPLIT THE RIDGE AND MOVE
SLOWLY ACROSS THE SOUTH CENTRAL PART OF THE COUNTY.

OVERALL THE SURFACE PATTERN WILL KEEP A SLY TO SELY FLOW ACROSS THE
AREA...WITH TEMPS AND MOISTURE LEVELS BUILDING SLOWLY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BATESVILLE AR     68  88  69  91 /  10  10  10  10
CAMDEN AR         69  92  69  94 /  10  10  10  10
HARRISON AR       65  85  65  88 /  20  10  10  10
HOT SPRINGS AR    69  91  69  92 /  10  10  10  10
LITTLE ROCK   AR  70  91  70  93 /  10  10  10  10
MONTICELLO AR     68  92  70  93 /  10  10  10  10
MOUNT IDA AR      67  90  68  91 /  10  10  10  10
MOUNTAIN HOME AR  66  87  67  90 /  20  10  10  10
NEWPORT AR        68  88  69  91 /  10  10  10  10
PINE BLUFF AR     68  92  68  93 /  10  10  10  10
RUSSELLVILLE AR   67  91  68  92 /  10  10  10  10
SEARCY AR         67  91  67  92 /  10  10  10  10
STUTTGART AR      68  91  68  93 /  10  10  10  10
&&

.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&

$$


AVIATION...65




000
FXUS64 KLZK 290554
AFDLZK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
1254 AM CDT SAT AUG 29 2015

.AVIATION...

VFR CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST AT ALL TAF SITES EXCEPT KPBF...WHERE
SOME PATCHY FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE DURING THE MORNING HOURS. SOME
LIGHT SHOWERS AND PERHAPS A FEW THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH A
WEAK COLD FRONT WILL PUSH INTO THE STATE...MAINLY ACROSS NORTHERN
AND WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE STATE. DO EXPECT FAIRLY LOW COVERAGE
WITH THESE STORMS AND AT THIS POINT JUST INCLUDED VCTS IN THE TAFS
AT KHRO/KBPK/KHOT/KADF.


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 613 PM CDT FRI AUG 28 2015/

AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE PERIOD. THERE
MAY BE A BRIEF SHOWER EARLY SATURDAY MORNING IN THE NORTH AS A
FRONTAL BOUNDARY MOVES INTO THE AREA. TAFS OUT SHORTLY.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 237 PM CDT FRI AUG 28 2015/

DISCUSSION...

MAIN CONCERNS THIS FORECAST CYCLE ARE CHANCES OF LIGHT CONVECTION
IN NW AR THIS EVENING TO TONIGHT...THEN INTO THE WEEKEND OVER A
BIT MORE OF NORTHERN AND CENTRAL AR. THEN NEXT CHANCE OF RAIN
LOOKS TO BE WELL INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. TEMPS WILL BE
AROUND NORMAL VALUES THROUGH THE PERIOD. CONTINUED MODERATE WILD
FIRE DANGER WITH SOME BURN BANS OVER PARTS OF CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN
AR.

LIGHT CONVECTION OVER EASTERN OK DID MAKE PROGRESS EAST BUT HAS
WEAKENED AS IT MOVED EAST. ONLY LIGHT SHOWERS SEEN. THIS WAS ASSOCIATED
WITH AN UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE ENERGY. THE UPPER TROUGH OVER THE
EASTERN PLAINS HAS ALLOWED THE WEAK COLD FRONT TO DRIFT A BIT MORE
EAST...OVER CENTRAL KS...TO EASTERN NEB. MOISTURE LEVELS HAVE COME
UP A LITTLE OVER AR...WITH DEW POINT TEMPS FROM THE UPPER 50S TO
LOWER 60S OVER MOST OF THE STATE...WHILE THE MID 60S OVER THE FAR
WEST.

SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT

MODELS ARE CONSISTENT WITH BRINGING MORE UPPER SHORT WAVE ENERGY
INTO NORTHERN AR LATER TONIGHT AND ESPECIALLY ON SATURDAY...AND
FORECAST WILL INDICATE THIS. ALTHOUGH...COVERAGE DOES NOT LOOK
HIGH AND MAINLY A SLIGHT CHANCE TO LOW CHANCE OF RAIN...WITH ONLY
ISOLATED THUNDER...IS EXPECTED...AND THIS IS ABOUT AS HIGH I CAN
GO AT THIS TIME. PRECIP WATER VALUES DO COME UP OVER 1 INCH OVER
THE WEEKEND...AND MAY NEED A BIT MORE ISOLATED POP OVER THE
WEEKEND. AT THIS TIME...HAVE HELD CONVECTION CHANCES MAINLY OVER
PARTS OF NORTHERN AND CENTRAL AR...WITH POTENTIAL SHORT WAVE
ENERGY MAINLY OVER THESE AREAS. ON SUNDAY...HAVE MOVED POP CHANCES
A BIT FARTHER NORTH...BUT DUE TO UNCERTAINTY...MAY HAVE TO ADD A
BIT MORE POP CHANCES SUNDAY. INTO MONDAY...THE WEAK UPPER TROUGH
OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS CONTINUES TO WEAKEN MORE AND HAVE HELD
FORECAST DRY. AS MENTIONED EARLIER...UNCERTAINTY DOES EXIST AND
LATER FORECASTS MAY ADD SLIGHT CHANCES. TEMPS WILL OVERALL BE
AROUND NORMAL VALUES.

LONG TERM...TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...

AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL SET UP IN THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN HALF OF
THE COUNTRY DURING THE EXTENDED TERM...WITH A TROF ACROSS THE WEST.
IT APPEARS THAT A WEAK SHORTWAVE WILL SPLIT THE RIDGE AND MOVE
SLOWLY ACROSS THE SOUTH CENTRAL PART OF THE COUNTY.

OVERALL THE SURFACE PATTERN WILL KEEP A SLY TO SELY FLOW ACROSS THE
AREA...WITH TEMPS AND MOISTURE LEVELS BUILDING SLOWLY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BATESVILLE AR     68  88  69  91 /  10  10  10  10
CAMDEN AR         69  92  69  94 /  10  10  10  10
HARRISON AR       65  85  65  88 /  20  10  10  10
HOT SPRINGS AR    69  91  69  92 /  10  10  10  10
LITTLE ROCK   AR  70  91  70  93 /  10  10  10  10
MONTICELLO AR     68  92  70  93 /  10  10  10  10
MOUNT IDA AR      67  90  68  91 /  10  10  10  10
MOUNTAIN HOME AR  66  87  67  90 /  20  10  10  10
NEWPORT AR        68  88  69  91 /  10  10  10  10
PINE BLUFF AR     68  92  68  93 /  10  10  10  10
RUSSELLVILLE AR   67  91  68  92 /  10  10  10  10
SEARCY AR         67  91  67  92 /  10  10  10  10
STUTTGART AR      68  91  68  93 /  10  10  10  10
&&

.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&

$$


AVIATION...65



000
FXUS64 KLZK 282313 AAA
AFDLZK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
613 PM CDT FRI AUG 28 2015

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE PERIOD. THERE
MAY BE A BRIEF SHOWER EARLY SATURDAY MORNING IN THE NORTH AS A
FRONTAL BOUNDARY MOVES INTO THE AREA. TAFS OUT SHORTLY.
&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 237 PM CDT FRI AUG 28 2015/

DISCUSSION...

MAIN CONCERNS THIS FORECAST CYCLE ARE CHANCES OF LIGHT CONVECTION
IN NW AR THIS EVENING TO TONIGHT...THEN INTO THE WEEKEND OVER A
BIT MORE OF NORTHERN AND CENTRAL AR. THEN NEXT CHANCE OF RAIN
LOOKS TO BE WELL INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. TEMPS WILL BE
AROUND NORMAL VALUES THROUGH THE PERIOD. CONTINUED MODERATE WILD
FIRE DANGER WITH SOME BURN BANS OVER PARTS OF CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN
AR.

LIGHT CONVECTION OVER EASTERN OK DID MAKE PROGRESS EAST BUT HAS
WEAKENED AS IT MOVED EAST. ONLY LIGHT SHOWERS SEEN. THIS WAS ASSOCIATED
WITH AN UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE ENERGY. THE UPPER TROUGH OVER THE
EASTERN PLAINS HAS ALLOWED THE WEAK COLD FRONT TO DRIFT A BIT MORE
EAST...OVER CENTRAL KS...TO EASTERN NEB. MOISTURE LEVELS HAVE COME
UP A LITTLE OVER AR...WITH DEW POINT TEMPS FROM THE UPPER 50S TO
LOWER 60S OVER MOST OF THE STATE...WHILE THE MID 60S OVER THE FAR
WEST.

SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT

MODELS ARE CONSISTENT WITH BRINGING MORE UPPER SHORT WAVE ENERGY
INTO NORTHERN AR LATER TONIGHT AND ESPECIALLY ON SATURDAY...AND
FORECAST WILL INDICATE THIS. ALTHOUGH...COVERAGE DOES NOT LOOK
HIGH AND MAINLY A SLIGHT CHANCE TO LOW CHANCE OF RAIN...WITH ONLY
ISOLATED THUNDER...IS EXPECTED...AND THIS IS ABOUT AS HIGH I CAN
GO AT THIS TIME. PRECIP WATER VALUES DO COME UP OVER 1 INCH OVER
THE WEEKEND...AND MAY NEED A BIT MORE ISOLATED POP OVER THE
WEEKEND. AT THIS TIME...HAVE HELD CONVECTION CHANCES MAINLY OVER
PARTS OF NORTHERN AND CENTRAL AR...WITH POTENTIAL SHORT WAVE
ENERGY MAINLY OVER THESE AREAS. ON SUNDAY...HAVE MOVED POP CHANCES
A BIT FARTHER NORTH...BUT DUE TO UNCERTAINTY...MAY HAVE TO ADD A
BIT MORE POP CHANCES SUNDAY. INTO MONDAY...THE WEAK UPPER TROUGH
OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS CONTINUES TO WEAKEN MORE AND HAVE HELD
FORECAST DRY. AS MENTIONED EARLIER...UNCERTAINTY DOES EXIST AND
LATER FORECASTS MAY ADD SLIGHT CHANCES. TEMPS WILL OVERALL BE
AROUND NORMAL VALUES.

LONG TERM...TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...

AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL SET UP IN THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN HALF OF
THE COUNTRY DURING THE EXTENDED TERM...WITH A TROF ACROSS THE WEST.
IT APPEARS THAT A WEAK SHORTWAVE WILL SPLIT THE RIDGE AND MOVE
SLOWLY ACROSS THE SOUTH CENTRAL PART OF THE COUNTY.

OVERALL THE SURFACE PATTERN WILL KEEP A SLY TO SELY FLOW ACROSS THE
AREA...WITH TEMPS AND MOISTURE LEVELS BUILDING SLOWLY.
&&

.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&

$$

AVIATION...57



000
FXUS64 KLZK 282313 AAA
AFDLZK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
613 PM CDT FRI AUG 28 2015

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE PERIOD. THERE
MAY BE A BRIEF SHOWER EARLY SATURDAY MORNING IN THE NORTH AS A
FRONTAL BOUNDARY MOVES INTO THE AREA. TAFS OUT SHORTLY.
&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 237 PM CDT FRI AUG 28 2015/

DISCUSSION...

MAIN CONCERNS THIS FORECAST CYCLE ARE CHANCES OF LIGHT CONVECTION
IN NW AR THIS EVENING TO TONIGHT...THEN INTO THE WEEKEND OVER A
BIT MORE OF NORTHERN AND CENTRAL AR. THEN NEXT CHANCE OF RAIN
LOOKS TO BE WELL INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. TEMPS WILL BE
AROUND NORMAL VALUES THROUGH THE PERIOD. CONTINUED MODERATE WILD
FIRE DANGER WITH SOME BURN BANS OVER PARTS OF CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN
AR.

LIGHT CONVECTION OVER EASTERN OK DID MAKE PROGRESS EAST BUT HAS
WEAKENED AS IT MOVED EAST. ONLY LIGHT SHOWERS SEEN. THIS WAS ASSOCIATED
WITH AN UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE ENERGY. THE UPPER TROUGH OVER THE
EASTERN PLAINS HAS ALLOWED THE WEAK COLD FRONT TO DRIFT A BIT MORE
EAST...OVER CENTRAL KS...TO EASTERN NEB. MOISTURE LEVELS HAVE COME
UP A LITTLE OVER AR...WITH DEW POINT TEMPS FROM THE UPPER 50S TO
LOWER 60S OVER MOST OF THE STATE...WHILE THE MID 60S OVER THE FAR
WEST.

SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT

MODELS ARE CONSISTENT WITH BRINGING MORE UPPER SHORT WAVE ENERGY
INTO NORTHERN AR LATER TONIGHT AND ESPECIALLY ON SATURDAY...AND
FORECAST WILL INDICATE THIS. ALTHOUGH...COVERAGE DOES NOT LOOK
HIGH AND MAINLY A SLIGHT CHANCE TO LOW CHANCE OF RAIN...WITH ONLY
ISOLATED THUNDER...IS EXPECTED...AND THIS IS ABOUT AS HIGH I CAN
GO AT THIS TIME. PRECIP WATER VALUES DO COME UP OVER 1 INCH OVER
THE WEEKEND...AND MAY NEED A BIT MORE ISOLATED POP OVER THE
WEEKEND. AT THIS TIME...HAVE HELD CONVECTION CHANCES MAINLY OVER
PARTS OF NORTHERN AND CENTRAL AR...WITH POTENTIAL SHORT WAVE
ENERGY MAINLY OVER THESE AREAS. ON SUNDAY...HAVE MOVED POP CHANCES
A BIT FARTHER NORTH...BUT DUE TO UNCERTAINTY...MAY HAVE TO ADD A
BIT MORE POP CHANCES SUNDAY. INTO MONDAY...THE WEAK UPPER TROUGH
OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS CONTINUES TO WEAKEN MORE AND HAVE HELD
FORECAST DRY. AS MENTIONED EARLIER...UNCERTAINTY DOES EXIST AND
LATER FORECASTS MAY ADD SLIGHT CHANCES. TEMPS WILL OVERALL BE
AROUND NORMAL VALUES.

LONG TERM...TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...

AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL SET UP IN THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN HALF OF
THE COUNTRY DURING THE EXTENDED TERM...WITH A TROF ACROSS THE WEST.
IT APPEARS THAT A WEAK SHORTWAVE WILL SPLIT THE RIDGE AND MOVE
SLOWLY ACROSS THE SOUTH CENTRAL PART OF THE COUNTY.

OVERALL THE SURFACE PATTERN WILL KEEP A SLY TO SELY FLOW ACROSS THE
AREA...WITH TEMPS AND MOISTURE LEVELS BUILDING SLOWLY.
&&

.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&

$$

AVIATION...57



000
FXUS64 KLZK 282313 AAA
AFDLZK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
613 PM CDT FRI AUG 28 2015

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE PERIOD. THERE
MAY BE A BRIEF SHOWER EARLY SATURDAY MORNING IN THE NORTH AS A
FRONTAL BOUNDARY MOVES INTO THE AREA. TAFS OUT SHORTLY.
&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 237 PM CDT FRI AUG 28 2015/

DISCUSSION...

MAIN CONCERNS THIS FORECAST CYCLE ARE CHANCES OF LIGHT CONVECTION
IN NW AR THIS EVENING TO TONIGHT...THEN INTO THE WEEKEND OVER A
BIT MORE OF NORTHERN AND CENTRAL AR. THEN NEXT CHANCE OF RAIN
LOOKS TO BE WELL INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. TEMPS WILL BE
AROUND NORMAL VALUES THROUGH THE PERIOD. CONTINUED MODERATE WILD
FIRE DANGER WITH SOME BURN BANS OVER PARTS OF CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN
AR.

LIGHT CONVECTION OVER EASTERN OK DID MAKE PROGRESS EAST BUT HAS
WEAKENED AS IT MOVED EAST. ONLY LIGHT SHOWERS SEEN. THIS WAS ASSOCIATED
WITH AN UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE ENERGY. THE UPPER TROUGH OVER THE
EASTERN PLAINS HAS ALLOWED THE WEAK COLD FRONT TO DRIFT A BIT MORE
EAST...OVER CENTRAL KS...TO EASTERN NEB. MOISTURE LEVELS HAVE COME
UP A LITTLE OVER AR...WITH DEW POINT TEMPS FROM THE UPPER 50S TO
LOWER 60S OVER MOST OF THE STATE...WHILE THE MID 60S OVER THE FAR
WEST.

SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT

MODELS ARE CONSISTENT WITH BRINGING MORE UPPER SHORT WAVE ENERGY
INTO NORTHERN AR LATER TONIGHT AND ESPECIALLY ON SATURDAY...AND
FORECAST WILL INDICATE THIS. ALTHOUGH...COVERAGE DOES NOT LOOK
HIGH AND MAINLY A SLIGHT CHANCE TO LOW CHANCE OF RAIN...WITH ONLY
ISOLATED THUNDER...IS EXPECTED...AND THIS IS ABOUT AS HIGH I CAN
GO AT THIS TIME. PRECIP WATER VALUES DO COME UP OVER 1 INCH OVER
THE WEEKEND...AND MAY NEED A BIT MORE ISOLATED POP OVER THE
WEEKEND. AT THIS TIME...HAVE HELD CONVECTION CHANCES MAINLY OVER
PARTS OF NORTHERN AND CENTRAL AR...WITH POTENTIAL SHORT WAVE
ENERGY MAINLY OVER THESE AREAS. ON SUNDAY...HAVE MOVED POP CHANCES
A BIT FARTHER NORTH...BUT DUE TO UNCERTAINTY...MAY HAVE TO ADD A
BIT MORE POP CHANCES SUNDAY. INTO MONDAY...THE WEAK UPPER TROUGH
OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS CONTINUES TO WEAKEN MORE AND HAVE HELD
FORECAST DRY. AS MENTIONED EARLIER...UNCERTAINTY DOES EXIST AND
LATER FORECASTS MAY ADD SLIGHT CHANCES. TEMPS WILL OVERALL BE
AROUND NORMAL VALUES.

LONG TERM...TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...

AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL SET UP IN THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN HALF OF
THE COUNTRY DURING THE EXTENDED TERM...WITH A TROF ACROSS THE WEST.
IT APPEARS THAT A WEAK SHORTWAVE WILL SPLIT THE RIDGE AND MOVE
SLOWLY ACROSS THE SOUTH CENTRAL PART OF THE COUNTY.

OVERALL THE SURFACE PATTERN WILL KEEP A SLY TO SELY FLOW ACROSS THE
AREA...WITH TEMPS AND MOISTURE LEVELS BUILDING SLOWLY.
&&

.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&

$$

AVIATION...57



000
FXUS64 KLZK 282313 AAA
AFDLZK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
613 PM CDT FRI AUG 28 2015

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE PERIOD. THERE
MAY BE A BRIEF SHOWER EARLY SATURDAY MORNING IN THE NORTH AS A
FRONTAL BOUNDARY MOVES INTO THE AREA. TAFS OUT SHORTLY.
&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 237 PM CDT FRI AUG 28 2015/

DISCUSSION...

MAIN CONCERNS THIS FORECAST CYCLE ARE CHANCES OF LIGHT CONVECTION
IN NW AR THIS EVENING TO TONIGHT...THEN INTO THE WEEKEND OVER A
BIT MORE OF NORTHERN AND CENTRAL AR. THEN NEXT CHANCE OF RAIN
LOOKS TO BE WELL INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. TEMPS WILL BE
AROUND NORMAL VALUES THROUGH THE PERIOD. CONTINUED MODERATE WILD
FIRE DANGER WITH SOME BURN BANS OVER PARTS OF CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN
AR.

LIGHT CONVECTION OVER EASTERN OK DID MAKE PROGRESS EAST BUT HAS
WEAKENED AS IT MOVED EAST. ONLY LIGHT SHOWERS SEEN. THIS WAS ASSOCIATED
WITH AN UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE ENERGY. THE UPPER TROUGH OVER THE
EASTERN PLAINS HAS ALLOWED THE WEAK COLD FRONT TO DRIFT A BIT MORE
EAST...OVER CENTRAL KS...TO EASTERN NEB. MOISTURE LEVELS HAVE COME
UP A LITTLE OVER AR...WITH DEW POINT TEMPS FROM THE UPPER 50S TO
LOWER 60S OVER MOST OF THE STATE...WHILE THE MID 60S OVER THE FAR
WEST.

SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT

MODELS ARE CONSISTENT WITH BRINGING MORE UPPER SHORT WAVE ENERGY
INTO NORTHERN AR LATER TONIGHT AND ESPECIALLY ON SATURDAY...AND
FORECAST WILL INDICATE THIS. ALTHOUGH...COVERAGE DOES NOT LOOK
HIGH AND MAINLY A SLIGHT CHANCE TO LOW CHANCE OF RAIN...WITH ONLY
ISOLATED THUNDER...IS EXPECTED...AND THIS IS ABOUT AS HIGH I CAN
GO AT THIS TIME. PRECIP WATER VALUES DO COME UP OVER 1 INCH OVER
THE WEEKEND...AND MAY NEED A BIT MORE ISOLATED POP OVER THE
WEEKEND. AT THIS TIME...HAVE HELD CONVECTION CHANCES MAINLY OVER
PARTS OF NORTHERN AND CENTRAL AR...WITH POTENTIAL SHORT WAVE
ENERGY MAINLY OVER THESE AREAS. ON SUNDAY...HAVE MOVED POP CHANCES
A BIT FARTHER NORTH...BUT DUE TO UNCERTAINTY...MAY HAVE TO ADD A
BIT MORE POP CHANCES SUNDAY. INTO MONDAY...THE WEAK UPPER TROUGH
OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS CONTINUES TO WEAKEN MORE AND HAVE HELD
FORECAST DRY. AS MENTIONED EARLIER...UNCERTAINTY DOES EXIST AND
LATER FORECASTS MAY ADD SLIGHT CHANCES. TEMPS WILL OVERALL BE
AROUND NORMAL VALUES.

LONG TERM...TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...

AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL SET UP IN THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN HALF OF
THE COUNTRY DURING THE EXTENDED TERM...WITH A TROF ACROSS THE WEST.
IT APPEARS THAT A WEAK SHORTWAVE WILL SPLIT THE RIDGE AND MOVE
SLOWLY ACROSS THE SOUTH CENTRAL PART OF THE COUNTY.

OVERALL THE SURFACE PATTERN WILL KEEP A SLY TO SELY FLOW ACROSS THE
AREA...WITH TEMPS AND MOISTURE LEVELS BUILDING SLOWLY.
&&

.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&

$$

AVIATION...57



000
FXUS64 KLZK 282313 AAA
AFDLZK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
613 PM CDT FRI AUG 28 2015

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE PERIOD. THERE
MAY BE A BRIEF SHOWER EARLY SATURDAY MORNING IN THE NORTH AS A
FRONTAL BOUNDARY MOVES INTO THE AREA. TAFS OUT SHORTLY.
&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 237 PM CDT FRI AUG 28 2015/

DISCUSSION...

MAIN CONCERNS THIS FORECAST CYCLE ARE CHANCES OF LIGHT CONVECTION
IN NW AR THIS EVENING TO TONIGHT...THEN INTO THE WEEKEND OVER A
BIT MORE OF NORTHERN AND CENTRAL AR. THEN NEXT CHANCE OF RAIN
LOOKS TO BE WELL INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. TEMPS WILL BE
AROUND NORMAL VALUES THROUGH THE PERIOD. CONTINUED MODERATE WILD
FIRE DANGER WITH SOME BURN BANS OVER PARTS OF CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN
AR.

LIGHT CONVECTION OVER EASTERN OK DID MAKE PROGRESS EAST BUT HAS
WEAKENED AS IT MOVED EAST. ONLY LIGHT SHOWERS SEEN. THIS WAS ASSOCIATED
WITH AN UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE ENERGY. THE UPPER TROUGH OVER THE
EASTERN PLAINS HAS ALLOWED THE WEAK COLD FRONT TO DRIFT A BIT MORE
EAST...OVER CENTRAL KS...TO EASTERN NEB. MOISTURE LEVELS HAVE COME
UP A LITTLE OVER AR...WITH DEW POINT TEMPS FROM THE UPPER 50S TO
LOWER 60S OVER MOST OF THE STATE...WHILE THE MID 60S OVER THE FAR
WEST.

SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT

MODELS ARE CONSISTENT WITH BRINGING MORE UPPER SHORT WAVE ENERGY
INTO NORTHERN AR LATER TONIGHT AND ESPECIALLY ON SATURDAY...AND
FORECAST WILL INDICATE THIS. ALTHOUGH...COVERAGE DOES NOT LOOK
HIGH AND MAINLY A SLIGHT CHANCE TO LOW CHANCE OF RAIN...WITH ONLY
ISOLATED THUNDER...IS EXPECTED...AND THIS IS ABOUT AS HIGH I CAN
GO AT THIS TIME. PRECIP WATER VALUES DO COME UP OVER 1 INCH OVER
THE WEEKEND...AND MAY NEED A BIT MORE ISOLATED POP OVER THE
WEEKEND. AT THIS TIME...HAVE HELD CONVECTION CHANCES MAINLY OVER
PARTS OF NORTHERN AND CENTRAL AR...WITH POTENTIAL SHORT WAVE
ENERGY MAINLY OVER THESE AREAS. ON SUNDAY...HAVE MOVED POP CHANCES
A BIT FARTHER NORTH...BUT DUE TO UNCERTAINTY...MAY HAVE TO ADD A
BIT MORE POP CHANCES SUNDAY. INTO MONDAY...THE WEAK UPPER TROUGH
OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS CONTINUES TO WEAKEN MORE AND HAVE HELD
FORECAST DRY. AS MENTIONED EARLIER...UNCERTAINTY DOES EXIST AND
LATER FORECASTS MAY ADD SLIGHT CHANCES. TEMPS WILL OVERALL BE
AROUND NORMAL VALUES.

LONG TERM...TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...

AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL SET UP IN THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN HALF OF
THE COUNTRY DURING THE EXTENDED TERM...WITH A TROF ACROSS THE WEST.
IT APPEARS THAT A WEAK SHORTWAVE WILL SPLIT THE RIDGE AND MOVE
SLOWLY ACROSS THE SOUTH CENTRAL PART OF THE COUNTY.

OVERALL THE SURFACE PATTERN WILL KEEP A SLY TO SELY FLOW ACROSS THE
AREA...WITH TEMPS AND MOISTURE LEVELS BUILDING SLOWLY.
&&

.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&

$$

AVIATION...57



000
FXUS64 KLZK 282313 AAA
AFDLZK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
613 PM CDT FRI AUG 28 2015

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE PERIOD. THERE
MAY BE A BRIEF SHOWER EARLY SATURDAY MORNING IN THE NORTH AS A
FRONTAL BOUNDARY MOVES INTO THE AREA. TAFS OUT SHORTLY.
&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 237 PM CDT FRI AUG 28 2015/

DISCUSSION...

MAIN CONCERNS THIS FORECAST CYCLE ARE CHANCES OF LIGHT CONVECTION
IN NW AR THIS EVENING TO TONIGHT...THEN INTO THE WEEKEND OVER A
BIT MORE OF NORTHERN AND CENTRAL AR. THEN NEXT CHANCE OF RAIN
LOOKS TO BE WELL INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. TEMPS WILL BE
AROUND NORMAL VALUES THROUGH THE PERIOD. CONTINUED MODERATE WILD
FIRE DANGER WITH SOME BURN BANS OVER PARTS OF CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN
AR.

LIGHT CONVECTION OVER EASTERN OK DID MAKE PROGRESS EAST BUT HAS
WEAKENED AS IT MOVED EAST. ONLY LIGHT SHOWERS SEEN. THIS WAS ASSOCIATED
WITH AN UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE ENERGY. THE UPPER TROUGH OVER THE
EASTERN PLAINS HAS ALLOWED THE WEAK COLD FRONT TO DRIFT A BIT MORE
EAST...OVER CENTRAL KS...TO EASTERN NEB. MOISTURE LEVELS HAVE COME
UP A LITTLE OVER AR...WITH DEW POINT TEMPS FROM THE UPPER 50S TO
LOWER 60S OVER MOST OF THE STATE...WHILE THE MID 60S OVER THE FAR
WEST.

SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT

MODELS ARE CONSISTENT WITH BRINGING MORE UPPER SHORT WAVE ENERGY
INTO NORTHERN AR LATER TONIGHT AND ESPECIALLY ON SATURDAY...AND
FORECAST WILL INDICATE THIS. ALTHOUGH...COVERAGE DOES NOT LOOK
HIGH AND MAINLY A SLIGHT CHANCE TO LOW CHANCE OF RAIN...WITH ONLY
ISOLATED THUNDER...IS EXPECTED...AND THIS IS ABOUT AS HIGH I CAN
GO AT THIS TIME. PRECIP WATER VALUES DO COME UP OVER 1 INCH OVER
THE WEEKEND...AND MAY NEED A BIT MORE ISOLATED POP OVER THE
WEEKEND. AT THIS TIME...HAVE HELD CONVECTION CHANCES MAINLY OVER
PARTS OF NORTHERN AND CENTRAL AR...WITH POTENTIAL SHORT WAVE
ENERGY MAINLY OVER THESE AREAS. ON SUNDAY...HAVE MOVED POP CHANCES
A BIT FARTHER NORTH...BUT DUE TO UNCERTAINTY...MAY HAVE TO ADD A
BIT MORE POP CHANCES SUNDAY. INTO MONDAY...THE WEAK UPPER TROUGH
OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS CONTINUES TO WEAKEN MORE AND HAVE HELD
FORECAST DRY. AS MENTIONED EARLIER...UNCERTAINTY DOES EXIST AND
LATER FORECASTS MAY ADD SLIGHT CHANCES. TEMPS WILL OVERALL BE
AROUND NORMAL VALUES.

LONG TERM...TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...

AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL SET UP IN THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN HALF OF
THE COUNTRY DURING THE EXTENDED TERM...WITH A TROF ACROSS THE WEST.
IT APPEARS THAT A WEAK SHORTWAVE WILL SPLIT THE RIDGE AND MOVE
SLOWLY ACROSS THE SOUTH CENTRAL PART OF THE COUNTY.

OVERALL THE SURFACE PATTERN WILL KEEP A SLY TO SELY FLOW ACROSS THE
AREA...WITH TEMPS AND MOISTURE LEVELS BUILDING SLOWLY.
&&

.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&

$$

AVIATION...57




000
FXUS64 KLZK 281937
AFDLZK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
237 PM CDT FRI AUG 28 2015

.DISCUSSION...

MAIN CONCERNS THIS FORECAST CYCLE ARE CHANCES OF LIGHT CONVECTION
IN NW AR THIS EVENING TO TONIGHT...THEN INTO THE WEEKEND OVER A
BIT MORE OF NORTHERN AND CENTRAL AR. THEN NEXT CHANCE OF RAIN
LOOKS TO BE WELL INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. TEMPS WILL BE
AROUND NORMAL VALUES THROUGH THE PERIOD. CONTINUED MODERATE WILD
FIRE DANGER WITH SOME BURN BANS OVER PARTS OF CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN
AR.

LIGHT CONVECTION OVER EASTERN OK DID MAKE PROGRESS EAST BUT HAS
WEAKENED AS IT MOVED EAST. ONLY LIGHT SHOWERS SEEN. THIS WAS ASSOCIATED
WITH AN UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE ENERGY. THE UPPER TROUGH OVER THE
EASTERN PLAINS HAS ALLOWED THE WEAK COLD FRONT TO DRIFT A BIT MORE
EAST...OVER CENTRAL KS...TO EASTERN NEB. MOISTURE LEVELS HAVE COME
UP A LITTLE OVER AR...WITH DEW POINT TEMPS FROM THE UPPER 50S TO
LOWER 60S OVER MOST OF THE STATE...WHILE THE MID 60S OVER THE FAR
WEST.

&&

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT

MODELS ARE CONSISTENT WITH BRINGING MORE UPPER SHORT WAVE ENERGY
INTO NORTHERN AR LATER TONIGHT AND ESPECIALLY ON SATURDAY...AND
FORECAST WILL INDICATE THIS. ALTHOUGH...COVERAGE DOES NOT LOOK
HIGH AND MAINLY A SLIGHT CHANCE TO LOW CHANCE OF RAIN...WITH ONLY
ISOLATED THUNDER...IS EXPECTED...AND THIS IS ABOUT AS HIGH I CAN
GO AT THIS TIME. PRECIP WATER VALUES DO COME UP OVER 1 INCH OVER
THE WEEKEND...AND MAY NEED A BIT MORE ISOLATED POP OVER THE
WEEKEND. AT THIS TIME...HAVE HELD CONVECTION CHANCES MAINLY OVER
PARTS OF NORTHERN AND CENTRAL AR...WITH POTENTIAL SHORT WAVE
ENERGY MAINLY OVER THESE AREAS. ON SUNDAY...HAVE MOVED POP CHANCES
A BIT FARTHER NORTH...BUT DUE TO UNCERTAINTY...MAY HAVE TO ADD A
BIT MORE POP CHANCES SUNDAY. INTO MONDAY...THE WEAK UPPER TROUGH
OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS CONTINUES TO WEAKEN MORE AND HAVE HELD
FORECAST DRY. AS MENTIONED EARLIER...UNCERTAINTY DOES EXIST AND
LATER FORECASTS MAY ADD SLIGHT CHANCES. TEMPS WILL OVERALL BE
AROUND NORMAL VALUES.

&&

.LONG TERM...TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...

AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL SET UP IN THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN HALF OF
THE COUNTRY DURING THE EXTENDED TERM...WITH A TROF ACROSS THE WEST.
IT APPEARS THAT A WEAK SHORTWAVE WILL SPLIT THE RIDGE AND MOVE
SLOWLY ACROSS THE SOUTH CENTRAL PART OF THE COUNTY.

OVERALL THE SURFACE PATTERN WILL KEEP A SLY TO SELY FLOW ACROSS THE
AREA...WITH TEMPS AND MOISTURE LEVELS BUILDING SLOWLY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BATESVILLE AR     65  89  68  89 /  10  20  10  10
CAMDEN AR         65  91  67  91 /  10  10  10  10
HARRISON AR       66  85  66  87 /  30  30  20  10
HOT SPRINGS AR    66  89  69  91 /  10  20  10  10
LITTLE ROCK   AR  67  90  68  91 /  10  20  10  10
MONTICELLO AR     66  92  69  92 /   0  10  10  10
MOUNT IDA AR      66  89  67  91 /  10  20  10  10
MOUNTAIN HOME AR  65  86  67  88 /  20  30  20  10
NEWPORT AR        65  89  68  90 /  10  20  10  10
PINE BLUFF AR     66  90  68  91 /   0  10  10  10
RUSSELLVILLE AR   67  89  68  91 /  20  20  10  10
SEARCY AR         65  90  68  91 /  10  20  10  10
STUTTGART AR      67  90  68  91 /   0  10  10  10
&&

.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...59 / LONG TERM...53



000
FXUS64 KLZK 281529 AAA
AFDLZK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
1030 AM CDT FRI AUG 28 2015

.DISCUSSION...

OVERALL FORECAST ON TRACK. LIGHT CONVECTION OVER EASTERN OK MAKING
SOME PROGRESS EAST BUT IS WEAKENING AS IT MOVES EAST. ASSOCIATED
WITH UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE ENERGY. FAR NW AR MAY SEE LIGHT
CONVECTION BUT NOT MAKE IT INTO OUR CWA. OF COURSE WILL MONITOR
THIS. TONIGHT AND SATURDAY...MODELS ARE CONSISTENT WITH BRINGING
MORE UPPER SHORT WAVE ENERGY INTO NORTHERN AR...AND FORECAST WILL
INDICATE THIS. ALTHOUGH...COVERAGE DOES NOT LOOK HIGH AND MAINLY A
SLIGHT CHANCE TO LOW CHANCE OF RAIN IS ABOUT AS HIGH FORECAST CAN GO
AT THIS TIME. PRECIP WATER VALUES DO COME UP OVER 1 INCH OVER THE
WEEKEND...AND MAY NEED A BIT MORE ISOLATED POP OVER THE WEEKEND.
OTHERWISE...TODAY TEMPS ON TRACK TO REACH MID TO UPPER 80S TO A FEW
NEAR 90 FOR HIGHS. WILL FINE SOME ELEMENTS WITH LATE MORNING UPDATE.
(59)

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 632 AM CDT FRI AUG 28 2015/

.AVIATION...

A FEW LOCATIONS OF PATCHY FOG ARE BEING OBSERVED AROUND THE
NATURAL STATE THIS MORNING. ANY PATCHY FOG WILL BURN OFF BY MID
MORNING. PRECIPITATION IN NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA WILL CONTINUE TO
WEAKEN IN THE COMING HOURS, WITH NO PRECIPITATION FORECAST FOR
THIS TAF PERIOD. VFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 412 AM CDT FRI AUG 28 2015/

SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT
A STORM SYSTEM ALOFT WAS HEADING FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS INTO
THE UPPER MIDWEST EARLY THIS MORNING. THE SYSTEM WAS MOVING AROUND
A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE SOUTHWEST UNITED STATES. A WEAK
COLD FRONT TIED TO THE SYSTEM WILL APPROACH FROM THE NORTHWEST...
AND WILL TRIGGER ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
TONIGHT/SATURDAY.

OTHERWISE...IT LOOKS LIKE A MOSTLY DRY NEAR TERM...WITH SLOW
WARMING AS HIGH PRESSURE TO THE SOUTHWEST SLOWLY BUILDS IN
THIS DIRECTION. TEMPERATURES WILL BE A LITTLE BELOW NORMAL
TODAY...BUT WILL BE CLOSER TO NORMAL AS THE WEEKEND
PROGRESSES.

LONG TERM...TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY
FEW CHANGES ARE MADE TO THE LONG TERM WITH AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
BUILDING INTO THE REGION. GFS AND ECMWF VARY QUITE A BIT IN THEIR
HANDLING OF A WEAK CLOSED LOW TO THE SW OF THE STATE. 00Z GFS HAS
REMAINED FAIRLY CONSISTENT OVER THE PAST FEW RUNS WITH THE 00Z ECMWF
COMING BACK DRIER. AT THIS POINT...WILL KEEP DIURNAL POPS IN THE
FORECAST BUT WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR FUTURE TRENDS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BATESVILLE AR     86  66  89  69 /   0  10  20  10
CAMDEN AR         90  65  92  67 /   0   0  10  10
HARRISON AR       84  65  85  66 /   0  30  30  10
HOT SPRINGS AR    88  67  90  70 /   0  10  20  10
LITTLE ROCK   AR  89  67  91  70 /   0  10  10  10
MONTICELLO AR     90  66  91  69 /   0   0  10  10
MOUNT IDA AR      89  65  90  67 /   0  10  20  10
MOUNTAIN HOME AR  85  65  87  67 /   0  20  30  20
NEWPORT AR        86  66  89  68 /   0  10  10  10
PINE BLUFF AR     89  66  91  68 /   0   0  10  10
RUSSELLVILLE AR   88  67  90  68 /   0  20  20  10
SEARCY AR         87  65  90  68 /   0  10  10  10
STUTTGART AR      88  66  90  68 /   0   0  10  10
&&

.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&

$$


AVIATION...65



000
FXUS64 KLZK 281529 AAA
AFDLZK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
1030 AM CDT FRI AUG 28 2015

.DISCUSSION...

OVERALL FORECAST ON TRACK. LIGHT CONVECTION OVER EASTERN OK MAKING
SOME PROGRESS EAST BUT IS WEAKENING AS IT MOVES EAST. ASSOCIATED
WITH UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE ENERGY. FAR NW AR MAY SEE LIGHT
CONVECTION BUT NOT MAKE IT INTO OUR CWA. OF COURSE WILL MONITOR
THIS. TONIGHT AND SATURDAY...MODELS ARE CONSISTENT WITH BRINGING
MORE UPPER SHORT WAVE ENERGY INTO NORTHERN AR...AND FORECAST WILL
INDICATE THIS. ALTHOUGH...COVERAGE DOES NOT LOOK HIGH AND MAINLY A
SLIGHT CHANCE TO LOW CHANCE OF RAIN IS ABOUT AS HIGH FORECAST CAN GO
AT THIS TIME. PRECIP WATER VALUES DO COME UP OVER 1 INCH OVER THE
WEEKEND...AND MAY NEED A BIT MORE ISOLATED POP OVER THE WEEKEND.
OTHERWISE...TODAY TEMPS ON TRACK TO REACH MID TO UPPER 80S TO A FEW
NEAR 90 FOR HIGHS. WILL FINE SOME ELEMENTS WITH LATE MORNING UPDATE.
(59)

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 632 AM CDT FRI AUG 28 2015/

.AVIATION...

A FEW LOCATIONS OF PATCHY FOG ARE BEING OBSERVED AROUND THE
NATURAL STATE THIS MORNING. ANY PATCHY FOG WILL BURN OFF BY MID
MORNING. PRECIPITATION IN NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA WILL CONTINUE TO
WEAKEN IN THE COMING HOURS, WITH NO PRECIPITATION FORECAST FOR
THIS TAF PERIOD. VFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 412 AM CDT FRI AUG 28 2015/

SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT
A STORM SYSTEM ALOFT WAS HEADING FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS INTO
THE UPPER MIDWEST EARLY THIS MORNING. THE SYSTEM WAS MOVING AROUND
A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE SOUTHWEST UNITED STATES. A WEAK
COLD FRONT TIED TO THE SYSTEM WILL APPROACH FROM THE NORTHWEST...
AND WILL TRIGGER ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
TONIGHT/SATURDAY.

OTHERWISE...IT LOOKS LIKE A MOSTLY DRY NEAR TERM...WITH SLOW
WARMING AS HIGH PRESSURE TO THE SOUTHWEST SLOWLY BUILDS IN
THIS DIRECTION. TEMPERATURES WILL BE A LITTLE BELOW NORMAL
TODAY...BUT WILL BE CLOSER TO NORMAL AS THE WEEKEND
PROGRESSES.

LONG TERM...TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY
FEW CHANGES ARE MADE TO THE LONG TERM WITH AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
BUILDING INTO THE REGION. GFS AND ECMWF VARY QUITE A BIT IN THEIR
HANDLING OF A WEAK CLOSED LOW TO THE SW OF THE STATE. 00Z GFS HAS
REMAINED FAIRLY CONSISTENT OVER THE PAST FEW RUNS WITH THE 00Z ECMWF
COMING BACK DRIER. AT THIS POINT...WILL KEEP DIURNAL POPS IN THE
FORECAST BUT WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR FUTURE TRENDS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BATESVILLE AR     86  66  89  69 /   0  10  20  10
CAMDEN AR         90  65  92  67 /   0   0  10  10
HARRISON AR       84  65  85  66 /   0  30  30  10
HOT SPRINGS AR    88  67  90  70 /   0  10  20  10
LITTLE ROCK   AR  89  67  91  70 /   0  10  10  10
MONTICELLO AR     90  66  91  69 /   0   0  10  10
MOUNT IDA AR      89  65  90  67 /   0  10  20  10
MOUNTAIN HOME AR  85  65  87  67 /   0  20  30  20
NEWPORT AR        86  66  89  68 /   0  10  10  10
PINE BLUFF AR     89  66  91  68 /   0   0  10  10
RUSSELLVILLE AR   88  67  90  68 /   0  20  20  10
SEARCY AR         87  65  90  68 /   0  10  10  10
STUTTGART AR      88  66  90  68 /   0   0  10  10
&&

.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&

$$


AVIATION...65




000
FXUS64 KLZK 281132
AFDLZK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
632 AM CDT FRI AUG 28 2015

.AVIATION...

A FEW LOCATIONS OF PATCHY FOG ARE BEING OBSERVED AROUND THE
NATURAL STATE THIS MORNING. ANY PATCHY FOG WILL BURN OFF BY MID
MORNING. PRECIPITATION IN NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA WILL CONTINUE TO
WEAKEN IN THE COMING HOURS, WITH NO PRECIPITATION FORECAST FOR
THIS TAF PERIOD. VFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 412 AM CDT FRI AUG 28 2015/

SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT
A STORM SYSTEM ALOFT WAS HEADING FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS INTO
THE UPPER MIDWEST EARLY THIS MORNING. THE SYSTEM WAS MOVING AROUND
A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE SOUTHWEST UNITED STATES. A WEAK
COLD FRONT TIED TO THE SYSTEM WILL APPROACH FROM THE NORTHWEST...
AND WILL TRIGGER ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
TONIGHT/SATURDAY.

OTHERWISE...IT LOOKS LIKE A MOSTLY DRY NEAR TERM...WITH SLOW
WARMING AS HIGH PRESSURE TO THE SOUTHWEST SLOWLY BUILDS IN
THIS DIRECTION. TEMEPRATURES WILL BE A LITTLE BELOW NORMAL
TODAY...BUT WILL BE CLOSER TO NORMAL AS THE WEEKEND
PROGRESSES.

LONG TERM...TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY
FEW CHANGES ARE MADE TO THE LONG TERM WITH AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
BUILDING INTO THE REGION. GFS AND ECMWF VARY QUITE A BIT IN THEIR
HANDLING OF A WEAK CLOSED LOW TO THE SW OF THE STATE. 00Z GFS HAS
REMAINED FAIRLY CONSISTENT OVER THE PAST FEW RUNS WITH THE 00Z ECMWF
COMING BACK DRIER. AT THIS POINT...WILL KEEP DIURNAL POPS IN THE
FORECAST BUT WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR FUTURE TRENDS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BATESVILLE AR     86  66  89  69 /   0  10  20  10
CAMDEN AR         90  65  92  67 /   0   0  10  10
HARRISON AR       84  65  85  66 /   0  30  30  10
HOT SPRINGS AR    88  67  90  70 /   0  10  20  10
LITTLE ROCK   AR  89  67  91  70 /   0  10  10  10
MONTICELLO AR     90  66  91  69 /   0   0  10  10
MOUNT IDA AR      89  65  90  67 /   0  10  20  10
MOUNTAIN HOME AR  85  65  87  67 /   0  20  30  20
NEWPORT AR        86  66  89  68 /   0  10  10  10
PINE BLUFF AR     89  66  91  68 /   0   0  10  10
RUSSELLVILLE AR   88  67  90  68 /   0  20  20  10
SEARCY AR         87  65  90  68 /   0  10  10  10
STUTTGART AR      88  66  90  68 /   0   0  10  10
&&

.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&

$$


AVIATION...65



000
FXUS64 KLZK 281132
AFDLZK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
632 AM CDT FRI AUG 28 2015

.AVIATION...

A FEW LOCATIONS OF PATCHY FOG ARE BEING OBSERVED AROUND THE
NATURAL STATE THIS MORNING. ANY PATCHY FOG WILL BURN OFF BY MID
MORNING. PRECIPITATION IN NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA WILL CONTINUE TO
WEAKEN IN THE COMING HOURS, WITH NO PRECIPITATION FORECAST FOR
THIS TAF PERIOD. VFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 412 AM CDT FRI AUG 28 2015/

SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT
A STORM SYSTEM ALOFT WAS HEADING FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS INTO
THE UPPER MIDWEST EARLY THIS MORNING. THE SYSTEM WAS MOVING AROUND
A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE SOUTHWEST UNITED STATES. A WEAK
COLD FRONT TIED TO THE SYSTEM WILL APPROACH FROM THE NORTHWEST...
AND WILL TRIGGER ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
TONIGHT/SATURDAY.

OTHERWISE...IT LOOKS LIKE A MOSTLY DRY NEAR TERM...WITH SLOW
WARMING AS HIGH PRESSURE TO THE SOUTHWEST SLOWLY BUILDS IN
THIS DIRECTION. TEMEPRATURES WILL BE A LITTLE BELOW NORMAL
TODAY...BUT WILL BE CLOSER TO NORMAL AS THE WEEKEND
PROGRESSES.

LONG TERM...TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY
FEW CHANGES ARE MADE TO THE LONG TERM WITH AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
BUILDING INTO THE REGION. GFS AND ECMWF VARY QUITE A BIT IN THEIR
HANDLING OF A WEAK CLOSED LOW TO THE SW OF THE STATE. 00Z GFS HAS
REMAINED FAIRLY CONSISTENT OVER THE PAST FEW RUNS WITH THE 00Z ECMWF
COMING BACK DRIER. AT THIS POINT...WILL KEEP DIURNAL POPS IN THE
FORECAST BUT WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR FUTURE TRENDS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BATESVILLE AR     86  66  89  69 /   0  10  20  10
CAMDEN AR         90  65  92  67 /   0   0  10  10
HARRISON AR       84  65  85  66 /   0  30  30  10
HOT SPRINGS AR    88  67  90  70 /   0  10  20  10
LITTLE ROCK   AR  89  67  91  70 /   0  10  10  10
MONTICELLO AR     90  66  91  69 /   0   0  10  10
MOUNT IDA AR      89  65  90  67 /   0  10  20  10
MOUNTAIN HOME AR  85  65  87  67 /   0  20  30  20
NEWPORT AR        86  66  89  68 /   0  10  10  10
PINE BLUFF AR     89  66  91  68 /   0   0  10  10
RUSSELLVILLE AR   88  67  90  68 /   0  20  20  10
SEARCY AR         87  65  90  68 /   0  10  10  10
STUTTGART AR      88  66  90  68 /   0   0  10  10
&&

.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&

$$


AVIATION...65




000
FXUS64 KLZK 281132
AFDLZK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
632 AM CDT FRI AUG 28 2015

.AVIATION...

A FEW LOCATIONS OF PATCHY FOG ARE BEING OBSERVED AROUND THE
NATURAL STATE THIS MORNING. ANY PATCHY FOG WILL BURN OFF BY MID
MORNING. PRECIPITATION IN NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA WILL CONTINUE TO
WEAKEN IN THE COMING HOURS, WITH NO PRECIPITATION FORECAST FOR
THIS TAF PERIOD. VFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 412 AM CDT FRI AUG 28 2015/

SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT
A STORM SYSTEM ALOFT WAS HEADING FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS INTO
THE UPPER MIDWEST EARLY THIS MORNING. THE SYSTEM WAS MOVING AROUND
A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE SOUTHWEST UNITED STATES. A WEAK
COLD FRONT TIED TO THE SYSTEM WILL APPROACH FROM THE NORTHWEST...
AND WILL TRIGGER ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
TONIGHT/SATURDAY.

OTHERWISE...IT LOOKS LIKE A MOSTLY DRY NEAR TERM...WITH SLOW
WARMING AS HIGH PRESSURE TO THE SOUTHWEST SLOWLY BUILDS IN
THIS DIRECTION. TEMEPRATURES WILL BE A LITTLE BELOW NORMAL
TODAY...BUT WILL BE CLOSER TO NORMAL AS THE WEEKEND
PROGRESSES.

LONG TERM...TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY
FEW CHANGES ARE MADE TO THE LONG TERM WITH AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
BUILDING INTO THE REGION. GFS AND ECMWF VARY QUITE A BIT IN THEIR
HANDLING OF A WEAK CLOSED LOW TO THE SW OF THE STATE. 00Z GFS HAS
REMAINED FAIRLY CONSISTENT OVER THE PAST FEW RUNS WITH THE 00Z ECMWF
COMING BACK DRIER. AT THIS POINT...WILL KEEP DIURNAL POPS IN THE
FORECAST BUT WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR FUTURE TRENDS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BATESVILLE AR     86  66  89  69 /   0  10  20  10
CAMDEN AR         90  65  92  67 /   0   0  10  10
HARRISON AR       84  65  85  66 /   0  30  30  10
HOT SPRINGS AR    88  67  90  70 /   0  10  20  10
LITTLE ROCK   AR  89  67  91  70 /   0  10  10  10
MONTICELLO AR     90  66  91  69 /   0   0  10  10
MOUNT IDA AR      89  65  90  67 /   0  10  20  10
MOUNTAIN HOME AR  85  65  87  67 /   0  20  30  20
NEWPORT AR        86  66  89  68 /   0  10  10  10
PINE BLUFF AR     89  66  91  68 /   0   0  10  10
RUSSELLVILLE AR   88  67  90  68 /   0  20  20  10
SEARCY AR         87  65  90  68 /   0  10  10  10
STUTTGART AR      88  66  90  68 /   0   0  10  10
&&

.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&

$$


AVIATION...65




000
FXUS64 KLZK 281132
AFDLZK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
632 AM CDT FRI AUG 28 2015

.AVIATION...

A FEW LOCATIONS OF PATCHY FOG ARE BEING OBSERVED AROUND THE
NATURAL STATE THIS MORNING. ANY PATCHY FOG WILL BURN OFF BY MID
MORNING. PRECIPITATION IN NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA WILL CONTINUE TO
WEAKEN IN THE COMING HOURS, WITH NO PRECIPITATION FORECAST FOR
THIS TAF PERIOD. VFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 412 AM CDT FRI AUG 28 2015/

SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT
A STORM SYSTEM ALOFT WAS HEADING FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS INTO
THE UPPER MIDWEST EARLY THIS MORNING. THE SYSTEM WAS MOVING AROUND
A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE SOUTHWEST UNITED STATES. A WEAK
COLD FRONT TIED TO THE SYSTEM WILL APPROACH FROM THE NORTHWEST...
AND WILL TRIGGER ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
TONIGHT/SATURDAY.

OTHERWISE...IT LOOKS LIKE A MOSTLY DRY NEAR TERM...WITH SLOW
WARMING AS HIGH PRESSURE TO THE SOUTHWEST SLOWLY BUILDS IN
THIS DIRECTION. TEMEPRATURES WILL BE A LITTLE BELOW NORMAL
TODAY...BUT WILL BE CLOSER TO NORMAL AS THE WEEKEND
PROGRESSES.

LONG TERM...TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY
FEW CHANGES ARE MADE TO THE LONG TERM WITH AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
BUILDING INTO THE REGION. GFS AND ECMWF VARY QUITE A BIT IN THEIR
HANDLING OF A WEAK CLOSED LOW TO THE SW OF THE STATE. 00Z GFS HAS
REMAINED FAIRLY CONSISTENT OVER THE PAST FEW RUNS WITH THE 00Z ECMWF
COMING BACK DRIER. AT THIS POINT...WILL KEEP DIURNAL POPS IN THE
FORECAST BUT WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR FUTURE TRENDS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BATESVILLE AR     86  66  89  69 /   0  10  20  10
CAMDEN AR         90  65  92  67 /   0   0  10  10
HARRISON AR       84  65  85  66 /   0  30  30  10
HOT SPRINGS AR    88  67  90  70 /   0  10  20  10
LITTLE ROCK   AR  89  67  91  70 /   0  10  10  10
MONTICELLO AR     90  66  91  69 /   0   0  10  10
MOUNT IDA AR      89  65  90  67 /   0  10  20  10
MOUNTAIN HOME AR  85  65  87  67 /   0  20  30  20
NEWPORT AR        86  66  89  68 /   0  10  10  10
PINE BLUFF AR     89  66  91  68 /   0   0  10  10
RUSSELLVILLE AR   88  67  90  68 /   0  20  20  10
SEARCY AR         87  65  90  68 /   0  10  10  10
STUTTGART AR      88  66  90  68 /   0   0  10  10
&&

.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&

$$


AVIATION...65




000
FXUS64 KLZK 281132
AFDLZK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
632 AM CDT FRI AUG 28 2015

.AVIATION...

A FEW LOCATIONS OF PATCHY FOG ARE BEING OBSERVED AROUND THE
NATURAL STATE THIS MORNING. ANY PATCHY FOG WILL BURN OFF BY MID
MORNING. PRECIPITATION IN NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA WILL CONTINUE TO
WEAKEN IN THE COMING HOURS, WITH NO PRECIPITATION FORECAST FOR
THIS TAF PERIOD. VFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 412 AM CDT FRI AUG 28 2015/

SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT
A STORM SYSTEM ALOFT WAS HEADING FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS INTO
THE UPPER MIDWEST EARLY THIS MORNING. THE SYSTEM WAS MOVING AROUND
A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE SOUTHWEST UNITED STATES. A WEAK
COLD FRONT TIED TO THE SYSTEM WILL APPROACH FROM THE NORTHWEST...
AND WILL TRIGGER ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
TONIGHT/SATURDAY.

OTHERWISE...IT LOOKS LIKE A MOSTLY DRY NEAR TERM...WITH SLOW
WARMING AS HIGH PRESSURE TO THE SOUTHWEST SLOWLY BUILDS IN
THIS DIRECTION. TEMEPRATURES WILL BE A LITTLE BELOW NORMAL
TODAY...BUT WILL BE CLOSER TO NORMAL AS THE WEEKEND
PROGRESSES.

LONG TERM...TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY
FEW CHANGES ARE MADE TO THE LONG TERM WITH AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
BUILDING INTO THE REGION. GFS AND ECMWF VARY QUITE A BIT IN THEIR
HANDLING OF A WEAK CLOSED LOW TO THE SW OF THE STATE. 00Z GFS HAS
REMAINED FAIRLY CONSISTENT OVER THE PAST FEW RUNS WITH THE 00Z ECMWF
COMING BACK DRIER. AT THIS POINT...WILL KEEP DIURNAL POPS IN THE
FORECAST BUT WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR FUTURE TRENDS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BATESVILLE AR     86  66  89  69 /   0  10  20  10
CAMDEN AR         90  65  92  67 /   0   0  10  10
HARRISON AR       84  65  85  66 /   0  30  30  10
HOT SPRINGS AR    88  67  90  70 /   0  10  20  10
LITTLE ROCK   AR  89  67  91  70 /   0  10  10  10
MONTICELLO AR     90  66  91  69 /   0   0  10  10
MOUNT IDA AR      89  65  90  67 /   0  10  20  10
MOUNTAIN HOME AR  85  65  87  67 /   0  20  30  20
NEWPORT AR        86  66  89  68 /   0  10  10  10
PINE BLUFF AR     89  66  91  68 /   0   0  10  10
RUSSELLVILLE AR   88  67  90  68 /   0  20  20  10
SEARCY AR         87  65  90  68 /   0  10  10  10
STUTTGART AR      88  66  90  68 /   0   0  10  10
&&

.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&

$$


AVIATION...65




000
FXUS64 KLZK 281132
AFDLZK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
632 AM CDT FRI AUG 28 2015

.AVIATION...

A FEW LOCATIONS OF PATCHY FOG ARE BEING OBSERVED AROUND THE
NATURAL STATE THIS MORNING. ANY PATCHY FOG WILL BURN OFF BY MID
MORNING. PRECIPITATION IN NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA WILL CONTINUE TO
WEAKEN IN THE COMING HOURS, WITH NO PRECIPITATION FORECAST FOR
THIS TAF PERIOD. VFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 412 AM CDT FRI AUG 28 2015/

SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT
A STORM SYSTEM ALOFT WAS HEADING FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS INTO
THE UPPER MIDWEST EARLY THIS MORNING. THE SYSTEM WAS MOVING AROUND
A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE SOUTHWEST UNITED STATES. A WEAK
COLD FRONT TIED TO THE SYSTEM WILL APPROACH FROM THE NORTHWEST...
AND WILL TRIGGER ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
TONIGHT/SATURDAY.

OTHERWISE...IT LOOKS LIKE A MOSTLY DRY NEAR TERM...WITH SLOW
WARMING AS HIGH PRESSURE TO THE SOUTHWEST SLOWLY BUILDS IN
THIS DIRECTION. TEMEPRATURES WILL BE A LITTLE BELOW NORMAL
TODAY...BUT WILL BE CLOSER TO NORMAL AS THE WEEKEND
PROGRESSES.

LONG TERM...TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY
FEW CHANGES ARE MADE TO THE LONG TERM WITH AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
BUILDING INTO THE REGION. GFS AND ECMWF VARY QUITE A BIT IN THEIR
HANDLING OF A WEAK CLOSED LOW TO THE SW OF THE STATE. 00Z GFS HAS
REMAINED FAIRLY CONSISTENT OVER THE PAST FEW RUNS WITH THE 00Z ECMWF
COMING BACK DRIER. AT THIS POINT...WILL KEEP DIURNAL POPS IN THE
FORECAST BUT WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR FUTURE TRENDS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BATESVILLE AR     86  66  89  69 /   0  10  20  10
CAMDEN AR         90  65  92  67 /   0   0  10  10
HARRISON AR       84  65  85  66 /   0  30  30  10
HOT SPRINGS AR    88  67  90  70 /   0  10  20  10
LITTLE ROCK   AR  89  67  91  70 /   0  10  10  10
MONTICELLO AR     90  66  91  69 /   0   0  10  10
MOUNT IDA AR      89  65  90  67 /   0  10  20  10
MOUNTAIN HOME AR  85  65  87  67 /   0  20  30  20
NEWPORT AR        86  66  89  68 /   0  10  10  10
PINE BLUFF AR     89  66  91  68 /   0   0  10  10
RUSSELLVILLE AR   88  67  90  68 /   0  20  20  10
SEARCY AR         87  65  90  68 /   0  10  10  10
STUTTGART AR      88  66  90  68 /   0   0  10  10
&&

.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&

$$


AVIATION...65




000
FXUS64 KLZK 280912
AFDLZK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
412 AM CDT FRI AUG 28 2015

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT
A STORM SYSTEM ALOFT WAS HEADING FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS INTO
THE UPPER MIDWEST EARLY THIS MORNING. THE SYSTEM WAS MOVING AROUND
A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE SOUTHWEST UNITED STATES. A WEAK
COLD FRONT TIED TO THE SYSTEM WILL APPROACH FROM THE NORTHWEST...
AND WILL TRIGGER ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
TONIGHT/SATURDAY.

OTHERWISE...IT LOOKS LIKE A MOSTLY DRY NEAR TERM...WITH SLOW
WARMING AS HIGH PRESSURE TO THE SOUTHWEST SLOWLY BUILDS IN
THIS DIRECTION. TEMEPRATURES WILL BE A LITTLE BELOW NORMAL
TODAY...BUT WILL BE CLOSER TO NORMAL AS THE WEEKEND
PROGRESSES.
&&

.LONG TERM...TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY
FEW CHANGES ARE MADE TO THE LONG TERM WITH AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
BUILDING INTO THE REGION. GFS AND ECMWF VARY QUITE A BIT IN THEIR
HANDLING OF A WEAK CLOSED LOW TO THE SW OF THE STATE. 00Z GFS HAS
REMAINED FAIRLY CONSISTENT OVER THE PAST FEW RUNS WITH THE 00Z ECMWF
COMING BACK DRIER. AT THIS POINT...WILL KEEP DIURNAL POPS IN THE
FORECAST BUT WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR FUTURE TRENDS.
&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BATESVILLE AR     86  66  89  69 /   0  10  20  10
CAMDEN AR         90  65  92  67 /   0   0  10  10
HARRISON AR       84  65  85  66 /   0  30  30  10
HOT SPRINGS AR    88  67  90  70 /   0  10  20  10
LITTLE ROCK   AR  89  67  91  70 /   0  10  10  10
MONTICELLO AR     90  66  91  69 /   0   0  10  10
MOUNT IDA AR      89  65  90  67 /   0  10  20  10
MOUNTAIN HOME AR  85  65  87  67 /   0  20  30  20
NEWPORT AR        86  66  89  68 /   0  10  10  10
PINE BLUFF AR     89  66  91  68 /   0   0  10  10
RUSSELLVILLE AR   88  67  90  68 /   0  20  20  10
SEARCY AR         87  65  90  68 /   0  10  10  10
STUTTGART AR      88  66  90  68 /   0   0  10  10
&&

.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...46 / LONG TERM...65



000
FXUS64 KLZK 280553
AFDLZK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
1253 AM CDT FRI AUG 28 2015

.AVIATION...

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS SOUTHERN KANSAS/CENTRAL OKLAHOMA
WILL CONTINUE TO DIE OUT THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. HOWEVER
THESE STORMS WILL PRODUCE QUITE A BIT OF CIRRUS TO NORTHERN AND
WESTERN TAF SITES. SOME PATCHY FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE AT KHRO DURING
THE MORNING HOURS...OTHERWISE VFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 904 PM CDT THU AUG 27 2015/

UPDATE...

A QUIET NIGHT IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE STATE WITH CLEAR TO PARTLY
CLOUDY CONDITIONS AND DRY...COOL WEATHER CONTINUING. EXPECT TEMPS
AND HUMIDITY VALUES TO INCREASE ON FRIDAY AS WINDS BECOME MORE
SOUTHERLY. THE NEXT COLD FRONT IS SET TO PUSH INTO ARKANSAS FRIDAY
NIGHT INTO SATURDAY...WITH SOME SLIGHT RAINFALL CHANCES.
OTHERWISE...HAVE JUST ADJUSTED FORECAST TRENDS FOR LATE THIS
EVENING AND OVERNIGHT...WITH ALL UPDATES OUT.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 640 PM CDT THU AUG 27 2015/

AVIATION...
HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES OVER THE AREA. ABUNDANT CIRRUS ALSO
CONTINUES OVER THE AREA. EXPECT SOME THINNING OF THE CIRRUS
OVERNIGHT AND CUMULUS DEVELOPMENT DURING FRIDAY. VFR CONDITIONS
ARE EXPECTED.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 231 PM CDT THU AUG 27 2015/

SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...
A SHORTWAVE MOVING THROUGH THE RIDGE TO THE WEST WILL IMPACT THE
FORECAST AREA LATE TOMORROW NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...WHILE AT THE
SURFACE A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL STALL OUT NORTHWEST OF THE AREA.
THIS SHOULD PROVIDE A BIT OF A FOCUS FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE NORTHWEST ON FRIDAY
NIGHT...WITH SOME ACTIVITY MOVING ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE NORTH ON
SATURDAY AS THE SHORTWAVE PROGRESSES THROUGH THE AREA.

NAM SHOWS SOME CONVECTION DEVELOPING ACROSS THE WRN AND SWRN ZONES
DURING THAT PERIOD...ALTHOUGH THIS ISNT WIDELY SUPPORTED BY OTHER
MODELS. FOR NOW WILL GO AHEAD AND KEEP THE LOWER CHANCE POPS IN THE
NWRN AND NORTHERN ZONES FROM FRIDAY NIGHT THRU SATURDAY.

THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE THAT HAS BEEN TO THE WEST WILL BUILD BACK MORE
INTO THE CENTRAL PART OF THE COUNTRY BY SUNDAY...AND AS SUCH TEMPS
WILL BE CLIMBING BACK UP AGAIN...WITH MAX TEMPS IN THE 90S ACROSS
MUCH OF THE STATE...WITH MID TO UPPER 80S ACROSS THE NORTH.

LONG TERM...MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...
SOUTHERLY FLOW THROUGH THE LONG TERM WILL BRING MOISTURE BACK TO
THE REGION. HAVE KEPT WITH THE PREVIOUS FORECAST OF DIURNAL
CONVECTION...BUT POPS WILL ONLY BE SLIGHT CHANCE. HIGHS WILL WARM
BACK INTO THE UPPER 80S TO THE MID 90S.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BATESVILLE AR     66  89  69  90 /  10  10  10  10
CAMDEN AR         65  92  67  91 /   0  10  10  10
HARRISON AR       65  85  66  87 /  30  30  10  10
HOT SPRINGS AR    67  90  70  91 /  10  10  10  10
LITTLE ROCK   AR  67  91  70  92 /  10  10  10  10
MONTICELLO AR     66  91  69  92 /   0  10  10  10
MOUNT IDA AR      65  90  67  92 /  10  20  10  10
MOUNTAIN HOME AR  65  87  67  88 /  20  30  20  10
NEWPORT AR        66  89  68  90 /  10  10  10  10
PINE BLUFF AR     66  91  68  91 /   0  10  10  10
RUSSELLVILLE AR   67  90  68  92 /  20  20  10  10
SEARCY AR         65  90  68  91 /  10  10  10  10
STUTTGART AR      66  90  68  91 /   0  10  10  10
&&

.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&

$$


AVIATION...65



000
FXUS64 KLZK 280553
AFDLZK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
1253 AM CDT FRI AUG 28 2015

.AVIATION...

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS SOUTHERN KANSAS/CENTRAL OKLAHOMA
WILL CONTINUE TO DIE OUT THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. HOWEVER
THESE STORMS WILL PRODUCE QUITE A BIT OF CIRRUS TO NORTHERN AND
WESTERN TAF SITES. SOME PATCHY FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE AT KHRO DURING
THE MORNING HOURS...OTHERWISE VFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 904 PM CDT THU AUG 27 2015/

UPDATE...

A QUIET NIGHT IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE STATE WITH CLEAR TO PARTLY
CLOUDY CONDITIONS AND DRY...COOL WEATHER CONTINUING. EXPECT TEMPS
AND HUMIDITY VALUES TO INCREASE ON FRIDAY AS WINDS BECOME MORE
SOUTHERLY. THE NEXT COLD FRONT IS SET TO PUSH INTO ARKANSAS FRIDAY
NIGHT INTO SATURDAY...WITH SOME SLIGHT RAINFALL CHANCES.
OTHERWISE...HAVE JUST ADJUSTED FORECAST TRENDS FOR LATE THIS
EVENING AND OVERNIGHT...WITH ALL UPDATES OUT.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 640 PM CDT THU AUG 27 2015/

AVIATION...
HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES OVER THE AREA. ABUNDANT CIRRUS ALSO
CONTINUES OVER THE AREA. EXPECT SOME THINNING OF THE CIRRUS
OVERNIGHT AND CUMULUS DEVELOPMENT DURING FRIDAY. VFR CONDITIONS
ARE EXPECTED.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 231 PM CDT THU AUG 27 2015/

SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...
A SHORTWAVE MOVING THROUGH THE RIDGE TO THE WEST WILL IMPACT THE
FORECAST AREA LATE TOMORROW NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...WHILE AT THE
SURFACE A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL STALL OUT NORTHWEST OF THE AREA.
THIS SHOULD PROVIDE A BIT OF A FOCUS FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE NORTHWEST ON FRIDAY
NIGHT...WITH SOME ACTIVITY MOVING ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE NORTH ON
SATURDAY AS THE SHORTWAVE PROGRESSES THROUGH THE AREA.

NAM SHOWS SOME CONVECTION DEVELOPING ACROSS THE WRN AND SWRN ZONES
DURING THAT PERIOD...ALTHOUGH THIS ISNT WIDELY SUPPORTED BY OTHER
MODELS. FOR NOW WILL GO AHEAD AND KEEP THE LOWER CHANCE POPS IN THE
NWRN AND NORTHERN ZONES FROM FRIDAY NIGHT THRU SATURDAY.

THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE THAT HAS BEEN TO THE WEST WILL BUILD BACK MORE
INTO THE CENTRAL PART OF THE COUNTRY BY SUNDAY...AND AS SUCH TEMPS
WILL BE CLIMBING BACK UP AGAIN...WITH MAX TEMPS IN THE 90S ACROSS
MUCH OF THE STATE...WITH MID TO UPPER 80S ACROSS THE NORTH.

LONG TERM...MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...
SOUTHERLY FLOW THROUGH THE LONG TERM WILL BRING MOISTURE BACK TO
THE REGION. HAVE KEPT WITH THE PREVIOUS FORECAST OF DIURNAL
CONVECTION...BUT POPS WILL ONLY BE SLIGHT CHANCE. HIGHS WILL WARM
BACK INTO THE UPPER 80S TO THE MID 90S.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BATESVILLE AR     66  89  69  90 /  10  10  10  10
CAMDEN AR         65  92  67  91 /   0  10  10  10
HARRISON AR       65  85  66  87 /  30  30  10  10
HOT SPRINGS AR    67  90  70  91 /  10  10  10  10
LITTLE ROCK   AR  67  91  70  92 /  10  10  10  10
MONTICELLO AR     66  91  69  92 /   0  10  10  10
MOUNT IDA AR      65  90  67  92 /  10  20  10  10
MOUNTAIN HOME AR  65  87  67  88 /  20  30  20  10
NEWPORT AR        66  89  68  90 /  10  10  10  10
PINE BLUFF AR     66  91  68  91 /   0  10  10  10
RUSSELLVILLE AR   67  90  68  92 /  20  20  10  10
SEARCY AR         65  90  68  91 /  10  10  10  10
STUTTGART AR      66  90  68  91 /   0  10  10  10
&&

.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&

$$


AVIATION...65




000
FXUS64 KLZK 280204 AAA
AFDLZK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
904 PM CDT THU AUG 27 2015

.UPDATE...

A QUIET NIGHT IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE STATE WITH CLEAR TO PARTLY
CLOUDY CONDITIONS AND DRY...COOL WEATHER CONTINUING. EXPECT TEMPS
AND HUMIDITY VALUES TO INCREASE ON FRIDAY AS WINDS BECOME MORE
SOUTHERLY. THE NEXT COLD FRONT IS SET TO PUSH INTO ARKANSAS FRIDAY
NIGHT INTO SATURDAY...WITH SOME SLIGHT RAINFALL CHANCES.
OTHERWISE...HAVE JUST ADJUSTED FORECAST TRENDS FOR LATE THIS
EVENING AND OVERNIGHT...WITH ALL UPDATES OUT.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 640 PM CDT THU AUG 27 2015/

AVIATION...
HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES OVER THE AREA. ABUNDANT CIRRUS ALSO
CONTINUES OVER THE AREA. EXPECT SOME THINNING OF THE CIRRUS
OVERNIGHT AND CUMULUS DEVELOPMENT DURING FRIDAY. VFR CONDITIONS
ARE EXPECTED.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 231 PM CDT THU AUG 27 2015/

SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...
A SHORTWAVE MOVING THROUGH THE RIDGE TO THE WEST WILL IMPACT THE
FORECAST AREA LATE TOMORROW NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...WHILE AT THE
SURFACE A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL STALL OUT NORTHWEST OF THE AREA.
THIS SHOULD PROVIDE A BIT OF A FOCUS FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE NORTHWEST ON FRIDAY
NIGHT...WITH SOME ACTIVITY MOVING ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE NORTH ON
SATURDAY AS THE SHORTWAVE PROGRESSES THROUGH THE AREA.

NAM SHOWS SOME CONVECTION DEVELOPING ACROSS THE WRN AND SWRN ZONES
DURING THAT PERIOD...ALTHOUGH THIS ISNT WIDELY SUPPORTED BY OTHER
MODELS. FOR NOW WILL GO AHEAD AND KEEP THE LOWER CHANCE POPS IN THE
NWRN AND NORTHERN ZONES FROM FRIDAY NIGHT THRU SATURDAY.

THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE THAT HAS BEEN TO THE WEST WILL BUILD BACK MORE
INTO THE CENTRAL PART OF THE COUNTRY BY SUNDAY...AND AS SUCH TEMPS
WILL BE CLIMBING BACK UP AGAIN...WITH MAX TEMPS IN THE 90S ACROSS
MUCH OF THE STATE...WITH MID TO UPPER 80S ACROSS THE NORTH.

LONG TERM...MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...
SOUTHERLY FLOW THROUGH THE LONG TERM WILL BRING MOISTURE BACK TO
THE REGION. HAVE KEPT WITH THE PREVIOUS FORECAST OF DIURNAL
CONVECTION...BUT POPS WILL ONLY BE SLIGHT CHANCE. HIGHS WILL WARM
BACK INTO THE UPPER 80S TO THE MID 90S.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BATESVILLE AR     60  86  66  89 /   0   0  10  10
CAMDEN AR         61  90  65  92 /   0   0   0  10
HARRISON AR       61  84  65  85 /   0   0  30  30
HOT SPRINGS AR    63  88  67  90 /   0   0  10  10
LITTLE ROCK   AR  63  89  67  91 /   0   0  10  10
MONTICELLO AR     61  90  66  91 /   0   0   0  10
MOUNT IDA AR      61  89  65  90 /   0   0  10  20
MOUNTAIN HOME AR  60  85  65  87 /   0   0  20  30
NEWPORT AR        60  86  66  89 /   0   0  10  10
PINE BLUFF AR     61  89  66  91 /   0   0   0  10
RUSSELLVILLE AR   62  88  67  90 /   0   0  20  20
SEARCY AR         60  87  65  90 /   0   0  10  10
STUTTGART AR      61  88  66  90 /   0   0   0  10
&&

.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&

$$

224




000
FXUS64 KLZK 280204 AAA
AFDLZK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
904 PM CDT THU AUG 27 2015

.UPDATE...

A QUIET NIGHT IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE STATE WITH CLEAR TO PARTLY
CLOUDY CONDITIONS AND DRY...COOL WEATHER CONTINUING. EXPECT TEMPS
AND HUMIDITY VALUES TO INCREASE ON FRIDAY AS WINDS BECOME MORE
SOUTHERLY. THE NEXT COLD FRONT IS SET TO PUSH INTO ARKANSAS FRIDAY
NIGHT INTO SATURDAY...WITH SOME SLIGHT RAINFALL CHANCES.
OTHERWISE...HAVE JUST ADJUSTED FORECAST TRENDS FOR LATE THIS
EVENING AND OVERNIGHT...WITH ALL UPDATES OUT.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 640 PM CDT THU AUG 27 2015/

AVIATION...
HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES OVER THE AREA. ABUNDANT CIRRUS ALSO
CONTINUES OVER THE AREA. EXPECT SOME THINNING OF THE CIRRUS
OVERNIGHT AND CUMULUS DEVELOPMENT DURING FRIDAY. VFR CONDITIONS
ARE EXPECTED.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 231 PM CDT THU AUG 27 2015/

SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...
A SHORTWAVE MOVING THROUGH THE RIDGE TO THE WEST WILL IMPACT THE
FORECAST AREA LATE TOMORROW NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...WHILE AT THE
SURFACE A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL STALL OUT NORTHWEST OF THE AREA.
THIS SHOULD PROVIDE A BIT OF A FOCUS FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE NORTHWEST ON FRIDAY
NIGHT...WITH SOME ACTIVITY MOVING ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE NORTH ON
SATURDAY AS THE SHORTWAVE PROGRESSES THROUGH THE AREA.

NAM SHOWS SOME CONVECTION DEVELOPING ACROSS THE WRN AND SWRN ZONES
DURING THAT PERIOD...ALTHOUGH THIS ISNT WIDELY SUPPORTED BY OTHER
MODELS. FOR NOW WILL GO AHEAD AND KEEP THE LOWER CHANCE POPS IN THE
NWRN AND NORTHERN ZONES FROM FRIDAY NIGHT THRU SATURDAY.

THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE THAT HAS BEEN TO THE WEST WILL BUILD BACK MORE
INTO THE CENTRAL PART OF THE COUNTRY BY SUNDAY...AND AS SUCH TEMPS
WILL BE CLIMBING BACK UP AGAIN...WITH MAX TEMPS IN THE 90S ACROSS
MUCH OF THE STATE...WITH MID TO UPPER 80S ACROSS THE NORTH.

LONG TERM...MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...
SOUTHERLY FLOW THROUGH THE LONG TERM WILL BRING MOISTURE BACK TO
THE REGION. HAVE KEPT WITH THE PREVIOUS FORECAST OF DIURNAL
CONVECTION...BUT POPS WILL ONLY BE SLIGHT CHANCE. HIGHS WILL WARM
BACK INTO THE UPPER 80S TO THE MID 90S.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BATESVILLE AR     60  86  66  89 /   0   0  10  10
CAMDEN AR         61  90  65  92 /   0   0   0  10
HARRISON AR       61  84  65  85 /   0   0  30  30
HOT SPRINGS AR    63  88  67  90 /   0   0  10  10
LITTLE ROCK   AR  63  89  67  91 /   0   0  10  10
MONTICELLO AR     61  90  66  91 /   0   0   0  10
MOUNT IDA AR      61  89  65  90 /   0   0  10  20
MOUNTAIN HOME AR  60  85  65  87 /   0   0  20  30
NEWPORT AR        60  86  66  89 /   0   0  10  10
PINE BLUFF AR     61  89  66  91 /   0   0   0  10
RUSSELLVILLE AR   62  88  67  90 /   0   0  20  20
SEARCY AR         60  87  65  90 /   0   0  10  10
STUTTGART AR      61  88  66  90 /   0   0   0  10
&&

.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&

$$

224




000
FXUS64 KLZK 280204 AAA
AFDLZK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
904 PM CDT THU AUG 27 2015

.UPDATE...

A QUIET NIGHT IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE STATE WITH CLEAR TO PARTLY
CLOUDY CONDITIONS AND DRY...COOL WEATHER CONTINUING. EXPECT TEMPS
AND HUMIDITY VALUES TO INCREASE ON FRIDAY AS WINDS BECOME MORE
SOUTHERLY. THE NEXT COLD FRONT IS SET TO PUSH INTO ARKANSAS FRIDAY
NIGHT INTO SATURDAY...WITH SOME SLIGHT RAINFALL CHANCES.
OTHERWISE...HAVE JUST ADJUSTED FORECAST TRENDS FOR LATE THIS
EVENING AND OVERNIGHT...WITH ALL UPDATES OUT.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 640 PM CDT THU AUG 27 2015/

AVIATION...
HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES OVER THE AREA. ABUNDANT CIRRUS ALSO
CONTINUES OVER THE AREA. EXPECT SOME THINNING OF THE CIRRUS
OVERNIGHT AND CUMULUS DEVELOPMENT DURING FRIDAY. VFR CONDITIONS
ARE EXPECTED.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 231 PM CDT THU AUG 27 2015/

SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...
A SHORTWAVE MOVING THROUGH THE RIDGE TO THE WEST WILL IMPACT THE
FORECAST AREA LATE TOMORROW NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...WHILE AT THE
SURFACE A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL STALL OUT NORTHWEST OF THE AREA.
THIS SHOULD PROVIDE A BIT OF A FOCUS FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE NORTHWEST ON FRIDAY
NIGHT...WITH SOME ACTIVITY MOVING ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE NORTH ON
SATURDAY AS THE SHORTWAVE PROGRESSES THROUGH THE AREA.

NAM SHOWS SOME CONVECTION DEVELOPING ACROSS THE WRN AND SWRN ZONES
DURING THAT PERIOD...ALTHOUGH THIS ISNT WIDELY SUPPORTED BY OTHER
MODELS. FOR NOW WILL GO AHEAD AND KEEP THE LOWER CHANCE POPS IN THE
NWRN AND NORTHERN ZONES FROM FRIDAY NIGHT THRU SATURDAY.

THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE THAT HAS BEEN TO THE WEST WILL BUILD BACK MORE
INTO THE CENTRAL PART OF THE COUNTRY BY SUNDAY...AND AS SUCH TEMPS
WILL BE CLIMBING BACK UP AGAIN...WITH MAX TEMPS IN THE 90S ACROSS
MUCH OF THE STATE...WITH MID TO UPPER 80S ACROSS THE NORTH.

LONG TERM...MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...
SOUTHERLY FLOW THROUGH THE LONG TERM WILL BRING MOISTURE BACK TO
THE REGION. HAVE KEPT WITH THE PREVIOUS FORECAST OF DIURNAL
CONVECTION...BUT POPS WILL ONLY BE SLIGHT CHANCE. HIGHS WILL WARM
BACK INTO THE UPPER 80S TO THE MID 90S.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BATESVILLE AR     60  86  66  89 /   0   0  10  10
CAMDEN AR         61  90  65  92 /   0   0   0  10
HARRISON AR       61  84  65  85 /   0   0  30  30
HOT SPRINGS AR    63  88  67  90 /   0   0  10  10
LITTLE ROCK   AR  63  89  67  91 /   0   0  10  10
MONTICELLO AR     61  90  66  91 /   0   0   0  10
MOUNT IDA AR      61  89  65  90 /   0   0  10  20
MOUNTAIN HOME AR  60  85  65  87 /   0   0  20  30
NEWPORT AR        60  86  66  89 /   0   0  10  10
PINE BLUFF AR     61  89  66  91 /   0   0   0  10
RUSSELLVILLE AR   62  88  67  90 /   0   0  20  20
SEARCY AR         60  87  65  90 /   0   0  10  10
STUTTGART AR      61  88  66  90 /   0   0   0  10
&&

.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&

$$

224




000
FXUS64 KLZK 280204 AAA
AFDLZK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
904 PM CDT THU AUG 27 2015

.UPDATE...

A QUIET NIGHT IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE STATE WITH CLEAR TO PARTLY
CLOUDY CONDITIONS AND DRY...COOL WEATHER CONTINUING. EXPECT TEMPS
AND HUMIDITY VALUES TO INCREASE ON FRIDAY AS WINDS BECOME MORE
SOUTHERLY. THE NEXT COLD FRONT IS SET TO PUSH INTO ARKANSAS FRIDAY
NIGHT INTO SATURDAY...WITH SOME SLIGHT RAINFALL CHANCES.
OTHERWISE...HAVE JUST ADJUSTED FORECAST TRENDS FOR LATE THIS
EVENING AND OVERNIGHT...WITH ALL UPDATES OUT.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 640 PM CDT THU AUG 27 2015/

AVIATION...
HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES OVER THE AREA. ABUNDANT CIRRUS ALSO
CONTINUES OVER THE AREA. EXPECT SOME THINNING OF THE CIRRUS
OVERNIGHT AND CUMULUS DEVELOPMENT DURING FRIDAY. VFR CONDITIONS
ARE EXPECTED.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 231 PM CDT THU AUG 27 2015/

SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...
A SHORTWAVE MOVING THROUGH THE RIDGE TO THE WEST WILL IMPACT THE
FORECAST AREA LATE TOMORROW NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...WHILE AT THE
SURFACE A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL STALL OUT NORTHWEST OF THE AREA.
THIS SHOULD PROVIDE A BIT OF A FOCUS FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE NORTHWEST ON FRIDAY
NIGHT...WITH SOME ACTIVITY MOVING ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE NORTH ON
SATURDAY AS THE SHORTWAVE PROGRESSES THROUGH THE AREA.

NAM SHOWS SOME CONVECTION DEVELOPING ACROSS THE WRN AND SWRN ZONES
DURING THAT PERIOD...ALTHOUGH THIS ISNT WIDELY SUPPORTED BY OTHER
MODELS. FOR NOW WILL GO AHEAD AND KEEP THE LOWER CHANCE POPS IN THE
NWRN AND NORTHERN ZONES FROM FRIDAY NIGHT THRU SATURDAY.

THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE THAT HAS BEEN TO THE WEST WILL BUILD BACK MORE
INTO THE CENTRAL PART OF THE COUNTRY BY SUNDAY...AND AS SUCH TEMPS
WILL BE CLIMBING BACK UP AGAIN...WITH MAX TEMPS IN THE 90S ACROSS
MUCH OF THE STATE...WITH MID TO UPPER 80S ACROSS THE NORTH.

LONG TERM...MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...
SOUTHERLY FLOW THROUGH THE LONG TERM WILL BRING MOISTURE BACK TO
THE REGION. HAVE KEPT WITH THE PREVIOUS FORECAST OF DIURNAL
CONVECTION...BUT POPS WILL ONLY BE SLIGHT CHANCE. HIGHS WILL WARM
BACK INTO THE UPPER 80S TO THE MID 90S.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BATESVILLE AR     60  86  66  89 /   0   0  10  10
CAMDEN AR         61  90  65  92 /   0   0   0  10
HARRISON AR       61  84  65  85 /   0   0  30  30
HOT SPRINGS AR    63  88  67  90 /   0   0  10  10
LITTLE ROCK   AR  63  89  67  91 /   0   0  10  10
MONTICELLO AR     61  90  66  91 /   0   0   0  10
MOUNT IDA AR      61  89  65  90 /   0   0  10  20
MOUNTAIN HOME AR  60  85  65  87 /   0   0  20  30
NEWPORT AR        60  86  66  89 /   0   0  10  10
PINE BLUFF AR     61  89  66  91 /   0   0   0  10
RUSSELLVILLE AR   62  88  67  90 /   0   0  20  20
SEARCY AR         60  87  65  90 /   0   0  10  10
STUTTGART AR      61  88  66  90 /   0   0   0  10
&&

.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&

$$

224




000
FXUS64 KLZK 272340
AFDLZK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
640 PM CDT THU AUG 27 2015

.AVIATION...
HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES OVER THE AREA. ABUNDANT CIRRUS ALSO
CONTINUES OVER THE AREA. EXPECT SOME THINNING OF THE CIRRUS
OVERNIGHT AND CUMULUS DEVELOPMENT DURING FRIDAY. VFR CONDITIONS
ARE EXPECTED.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 231 PM CDT THU AUG 27 2015/

SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...
A SHORTWAVE MOVING THROUGH THE RIDGE TO THE WEST WILL IMPACT THE
FORECAST AREA LATE TOMORROW NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...WHILE AT THE
SURFACE A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL STALL OUT NORTHWEST OF THE AREA.
THIS SHOULD PROVIDE A BIT OF A FOCUS FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE NORTHWEST ON FRIDAY
NIGHT...WITH SOME ACTIVITY MOVING ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE NORTH ON
SATURDAY AS THE SHORTWAVE PROGRESSES THROUGH THE AREA.

NAM SHOWS SOME CONVECTION DEVELOPING ACROSS THE WRN AND SWRN ZONES
DURING THAT PERIOD...ALTHOUGH THIS ISNT WIDELY SUPPORTED BY OTHER
MODELS. FOR NOW WILL GO AHEAD AND KEEP THE LOWER CHANCE POPS IN THE
NWRN AND NORTHERN ZONES FROM FRIDAY NIGHT THRU SATURDAY.

THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE THAT HAS BEEN TO THE WEST WILL BUILD BACK MORE
INTO THE CENTRAL PART OF THE COUNTRY BY SUNDAY...AND AS SUCH TEMPS
WILL BE CLIMBING BACK UP AGAIN...WITH MAX TEMPS IN THE 90S ACROSS
MUCH OF THE STATE...WITH MID TO UPPER 80S ACROSS THE NORTH.

LONG TERM...MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...
SOUTHERLY FLOW THROUGH THE LONG TERM WILL BRING MOISTURE BACK TO
THE REGION. HAVE KEPT WITH THE PREVIOUS FORECAST OF DIURNAL
CONVECTION...BUT POPS WILL ONLY BE SLIGHT CHANCE. HIGHS WILL WARM
BACK INTO THE UPPER 80S TO THE MID 90S.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BATESVILLE AR     60  86  66  89 /   0   0  10  10
CAMDEN AR         61  90  65  92 /   0   0   0  10
HARRISON AR       61  84  65  85 /   0   0  30  30
HOT SPRINGS AR    63  88  67  90 /   0   0  10  10
LITTLE ROCK   AR  63  89  67  91 /   0   0  10  10
MONTICELLO AR     61  90  66  91 /   0   0   0  10
MOUNT IDA AR      61  89  65  90 /   0   0  10  20
MOUNTAIN HOME AR  60  85  65  87 /   0   0  20  30
NEWPORT AR        60  86  66  89 /   0   0  10  10
PINE BLUFF AR     61  89  66  91 /   0   0   0  10
RUSSELLVILLE AR   62  88  67  90 /   0   0  20  20
SEARCY AR         60  87  65  90 /   0   0  10  10
STUTTGART AR      61  88  66  90 /   0   0   0  10
&&

.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&

$$


AVIATION...51




000
FXUS64 KLZK 272340
AFDLZK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
640 PM CDT THU AUG 27 2015

.AVIATION...
HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES OVER THE AREA. ABUNDANT CIRRUS ALSO
CONTINUES OVER THE AREA. EXPECT SOME THINNING OF THE CIRRUS
OVERNIGHT AND CUMULUS DEVELOPMENT DURING FRIDAY. VFR CONDITIONS
ARE EXPECTED.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 231 PM CDT THU AUG 27 2015/

SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...
A SHORTWAVE MOVING THROUGH THE RIDGE TO THE WEST WILL IMPACT THE
FORECAST AREA LATE TOMORROW NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...WHILE AT THE
SURFACE A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL STALL OUT NORTHWEST OF THE AREA.
THIS SHOULD PROVIDE A BIT OF A FOCUS FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE NORTHWEST ON FRIDAY
NIGHT...WITH SOME ACTIVITY MOVING ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE NORTH ON
SATURDAY AS THE SHORTWAVE PROGRESSES THROUGH THE AREA.

NAM SHOWS SOME CONVECTION DEVELOPING ACROSS THE WRN AND SWRN ZONES
DURING THAT PERIOD...ALTHOUGH THIS ISNT WIDELY SUPPORTED BY OTHER
MODELS. FOR NOW WILL GO AHEAD AND KEEP THE LOWER CHANCE POPS IN THE
NWRN AND NORTHERN ZONES FROM FRIDAY NIGHT THRU SATURDAY.

THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE THAT HAS BEEN TO THE WEST WILL BUILD BACK MORE
INTO THE CENTRAL PART OF THE COUNTRY BY SUNDAY...AND AS SUCH TEMPS
WILL BE CLIMBING BACK UP AGAIN...WITH MAX TEMPS IN THE 90S ACROSS
MUCH OF THE STATE...WITH MID TO UPPER 80S ACROSS THE NORTH.

LONG TERM...MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...
SOUTHERLY FLOW THROUGH THE LONG TERM WILL BRING MOISTURE BACK TO
THE REGION. HAVE KEPT WITH THE PREVIOUS FORECAST OF DIURNAL
CONVECTION...BUT POPS WILL ONLY BE SLIGHT CHANCE. HIGHS WILL WARM
BACK INTO THE UPPER 80S TO THE MID 90S.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BATESVILLE AR     60  86  66  89 /   0   0  10  10
CAMDEN AR         61  90  65  92 /   0   0   0  10
HARRISON AR       61  84  65  85 /   0   0  30  30
HOT SPRINGS AR    63  88  67  90 /   0   0  10  10
LITTLE ROCK   AR  63  89  67  91 /   0   0  10  10
MONTICELLO AR     61  90  66  91 /   0   0   0  10
MOUNT IDA AR      61  89  65  90 /   0   0  10  20
MOUNTAIN HOME AR  60  85  65  87 /   0   0  20  30
NEWPORT AR        60  86  66  89 /   0   0  10  10
PINE BLUFF AR     61  89  66  91 /   0   0   0  10
RUSSELLVILLE AR   62  88  67  90 /   0   0  20  20
SEARCY AR         60  87  65  90 /   0   0  10  10
STUTTGART AR      61  88  66  90 /   0   0   0  10
&&

.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&

$$


AVIATION...51



000
FXUS64 KLZK 272340
AFDLZK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
640 PM CDT THU AUG 27 2015

.AVIATION...
HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES OVER THE AREA. ABUNDANT CIRRUS ALSO
CONTINUES OVER THE AREA. EXPECT SOME THINNING OF THE CIRRUS
OVERNIGHT AND CUMULUS DEVELOPMENT DURING FRIDAY. VFR CONDITIONS
ARE EXPECTED.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 231 PM CDT THU AUG 27 2015/

SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...
A SHORTWAVE MOVING THROUGH THE RIDGE TO THE WEST WILL IMPACT THE
FORECAST AREA LATE TOMORROW NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...WHILE AT THE
SURFACE A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL STALL OUT NORTHWEST OF THE AREA.
THIS SHOULD PROVIDE A BIT OF A FOCUS FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE NORTHWEST ON FRIDAY
NIGHT...WITH SOME ACTIVITY MOVING ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE NORTH ON
SATURDAY AS THE SHORTWAVE PROGRESSES THROUGH THE AREA.

NAM SHOWS SOME CONVECTION DEVELOPING ACROSS THE WRN AND SWRN ZONES
DURING THAT PERIOD...ALTHOUGH THIS ISNT WIDELY SUPPORTED BY OTHER
MODELS. FOR NOW WILL GO AHEAD AND KEEP THE LOWER CHANCE POPS IN THE
NWRN AND NORTHERN ZONES FROM FRIDAY NIGHT THRU SATURDAY.

THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE THAT HAS BEEN TO THE WEST WILL BUILD BACK MORE
INTO THE CENTRAL PART OF THE COUNTRY BY SUNDAY...AND AS SUCH TEMPS
WILL BE CLIMBING BACK UP AGAIN...WITH MAX TEMPS IN THE 90S ACROSS
MUCH OF THE STATE...WITH MID TO UPPER 80S ACROSS THE NORTH.

LONG TERM...MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...
SOUTHERLY FLOW THROUGH THE LONG TERM WILL BRING MOISTURE BACK TO
THE REGION. HAVE KEPT WITH THE PREVIOUS FORECAST OF DIURNAL
CONVECTION...BUT POPS WILL ONLY BE SLIGHT CHANCE. HIGHS WILL WARM
BACK INTO THE UPPER 80S TO THE MID 90S.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BATESVILLE AR     60  86  66  89 /   0   0  10  10
CAMDEN AR         61  90  65  92 /   0   0   0  10
HARRISON AR       61  84  65  85 /   0   0  30  30
HOT SPRINGS AR    63  88  67  90 /   0   0  10  10
LITTLE ROCK   AR  63  89  67  91 /   0   0  10  10
MONTICELLO AR     61  90  66  91 /   0   0   0  10
MOUNT IDA AR      61  89  65  90 /   0   0  10  20
MOUNTAIN HOME AR  60  85  65  87 /   0   0  20  30
NEWPORT AR        60  86  66  89 /   0   0  10  10
PINE BLUFF AR     61  89  66  91 /   0   0   0  10
RUSSELLVILLE AR   62  88  67  90 /   0   0  20  20
SEARCY AR         60  87  65  90 /   0   0  10  10
STUTTGART AR      61  88  66  90 /   0   0   0  10
&&

.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&

$$


AVIATION...51




000
FXUS64 KLZK 272340
AFDLZK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
640 PM CDT THU AUG 27 2015

.AVIATION...
HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES OVER THE AREA. ABUNDANT CIRRUS ALSO
CONTINUES OVER THE AREA. EXPECT SOME THINNING OF THE CIRRUS
OVERNIGHT AND CUMULUS DEVELOPMENT DURING FRIDAY. VFR CONDITIONS
ARE EXPECTED.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 231 PM CDT THU AUG 27 2015/

SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...
A SHORTWAVE MOVING THROUGH THE RIDGE TO THE WEST WILL IMPACT THE
FORECAST AREA LATE TOMORROW NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...WHILE AT THE
SURFACE A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL STALL OUT NORTHWEST OF THE AREA.
THIS SHOULD PROVIDE A BIT OF A FOCUS FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE NORTHWEST ON FRIDAY
NIGHT...WITH SOME ACTIVITY MOVING ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE NORTH ON
SATURDAY AS THE SHORTWAVE PROGRESSES THROUGH THE AREA.

NAM SHOWS SOME CONVECTION DEVELOPING ACROSS THE WRN AND SWRN ZONES
DURING THAT PERIOD...ALTHOUGH THIS ISNT WIDELY SUPPORTED BY OTHER
MODELS. FOR NOW WILL GO AHEAD AND KEEP THE LOWER CHANCE POPS IN THE
NWRN AND NORTHERN ZONES FROM FRIDAY NIGHT THRU SATURDAY.

THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE THAT HAS BEEN TO THE WEST WILL BUILD BACK MORE
INTO THE CENTRAL PART OF THE COUNTRY BY SUNDAY...AND AS SUCH TEMPS
WILL BE CLIMBING BACK UP AGAIN...WITH MAX TEMPS IN THE 90S ACROSS
MUCH OF THE STATE...WITH MID TO UPPER 80S ACROSS THE NORTH.

LONG TERM...MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...
SOUTHERLY FLOW THROUGH THE LONG TERM WILL BRING MOISTURE BACK TO
THE REGION. HAVE KEPT WITH THE PREVIOUS FORECAST OF DIURNAL
CONVECTION...BUT POPS WILL ONLY BE SLIGHT CHANCE. HIGHS WILL WARM
BACK INTO THE UPPER 80S TO THE MID 90S.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BATESVILLE AR     60  86  66  89 /   0   0  10  10
CAMDEN AR         61  90  65  92 /   0   0   0  10
HARRISON AR       61  84  65  85 /   0   0  30  30
HOT SPRINGS AR    63  88  67  90 /   0   0  10  10
LITTLE ROCK   AR  63  89  67  91 /   0   0  10  10
MONTICELLO AR     61  90  66  91 /   0   0   0  10
MOUNT IDA AR      61  89  65  90 /   0   0  10  20
MOUNTAIN HOME AR  60  85  65  87 /   0   0  20  30
NEWPORT AR        60  86  66  89 /   0   0  10  10
PINE BLUFF AR     61  89  66  91 /   0   0   0  10
RUSSELLVILLE AR   62  88  67  90 /   0   0  20  20
SEARCY AR         60  87  65  90 /   0   0  10  10
STUTTGART AR      61  88  66  90 /   0   0   0  10
&&

.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&

$$


AVIATION...51



000
FXUS64 KLZK 271931
AFDLZK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
231 PM CDT THU AUG 27 2015

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...
A SHORTWAVE MOVING THROUGH THE RIDGE TO THE WEST WILL IMPACT THE
FORECAST AREA LATE TOMORROW NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...WHILE AT THE
SURFACE A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL STALL OUT NORTHWEST OF THE AREA.
THIS SHOULD PROVIDE A BIT OF A FOCUS FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE NORTHWEST ON FRIDAY
NIGHT...WITH SOME ACTIVITY MOVING ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE NORTH ON
SATURDAY AS THE SHORTWAVE PROGRESSES THROUGH THE AREA.

NAM SHOWS SOME CONVECTION DEVELOPING ACROSS THE WRN AND SWRN ZONES
DURING THAT PERIOD...ALTHOUGH THIS ISNT WIDELY SUPPORTED BY OTHER
MODELS. FOR NOW WILL GO AHEAD AND KEEP THE LOWER CHANCE POPS IN THE
NWRN AND NORTHERN ZONES FROM FRIDAY NIGHT THRU SATURDAY.

THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE THAT HAS BEEN TO THE WEST WILL BUILD BACK MORE
INTO THE CENTRAL PART OF THE COUNTRY BY SUNDAY...AND AS SUCH TEMPS
WILL BE CLIMBING BACK UP AGAIN...WITH MAX TEMPS IN THE 90S ACROSS
MUCH OF THE STATE...WITH MID TO UPPER 80S ACROSS THE NORTH.

&&

.LONG TERM...MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...
SOUTHERLY FLOW THROUGH THE LONG TERM WILL BRING MOISTURE BACK TO
THE REGION. HAVE KEPT WITH THE PREVIOUS FORECAST OF DIURNAL
CONVECTION...BUT POPS WILL ONLY BE SLIGHT CHANCE. HIGHS WILL WARM
BACK INTO THE UPPER 80S TO THE MID 90S.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BATESVILLE AR     60  86  66  89 /   0   0  10  10
CAMDEN AR         61  90  65  92 /   0   0   0  10
HARRISON AR       61  84  65  85 /   0   0  30  30
HOT SPRINGS AR    63  88  67  90 /   0   0  10  10
LITTLE ROCK   AR  63  89  67  91 /   0   0  10  10
MONTICELLO AR     61  90  66  91 /   0   0   0  10
MOUNT IDA AR      61  89  65  90 /   0   0  10  20
MOUNTAIN HOME AR  60  85  65  87 /   0   0  20  30
NEWPORT AR        60  86  66  89 /   0   0  10  10
PINE BLUFF AR     61  89  66  91 /   0   0   0  10
RUSSELLVILLE AR   62  88  67  90 /   0   0  20  20
SEARCY AR         60  87  65  90 /   0   0  10  10
STUTTGART AR      61  88  66  90 /   0   0   0  10
&&

.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...53 / LONG TERM...58




000
FXUS64 KLZK 271931
AFDLZK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
231 PM CDT THU AUG 27 2015

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...
A SHORTWAVE MOVING THROUGH THE RIDGE TO THE WEST WILL IMPACT THE
FORECAST AREA LATE TOMORROW NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...WHILE AT THE
SURFACE A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL STALL OUT NORTHWEST OF THE AREA.
THIS SHOULD PROVIDE A BIT OF A FOCUS FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE NORTHWEST ON FRIDAY
NIGHT...WITH SOME ACTIVITY MOVING ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE NORTH ON
SATURDAY AS THE SHORTWAVE PROGRESSES THROUGH THE AREA.

NAM SHOWS SOME CONVECTION DEVELOPING ACROSS THE WRN AND SWRN ZONES
DURING THAT PERIOD...ALTHOUGH THIS ISNT WIDELY SUPPORTED BY OTHER
MODELS. FOR NOW WILL GO AHEAD AND KEEP THE LOWER CHANCE POPS IN THE
NWRN AND NORTHERN ZONES FROM FRIDAY NIGHT THRU SATURDAY.

THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE THAT HAS BEEN TO THE WEST WILL BUILD BACK MORE
INTO THE CENTRAL PART OF THE COUNTRY BY SUNDAY...AND AS SUCH TEMPS
WILL BE CLIMBING BACK UP AGAIN...WITH MAX TEMPS IN THE 90S ACROSS
MUCH OF THE STATE...WITH MID TO UPPER 80S ACROSS THE NORTH.

&&

.LONG TERM...MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...
SOUTHERLY FLOW THROUGH THE LONG TERM WILL BRING MOISTURE BACK TO
THE REGION. HAVE KEPT WITH THE PREVIOUS FORECAST OF DIURNAL
CONVECTION...BUT POPS WILL ONLY BE SLIGHT CHANCE. HIGHS WILL WARM
BACK INTO THE UPPER 80S TO THE MID 90S.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BATESVILLE AR     60  86  66  89 /   0   0  10  10
CAMDEN AR         61  90  65  92 /   0   0   0  10
HARRISON AR       61  84  65  85 /   0   0  30  30
HOT SPRINGS AR    63  88  67  90 /   0   0  10  10
LITTLE ROCK   AR  63  89  67  91 /   0   0  10  10
MONTICELLO AR     61  90  66  91 /   0   0   0  10
MOUNT IDA AR      61  89  65  90 /   0   0  10  20
MOUNTAIN HOME AR  60  85  65  87 /   0   0  20  30
NEWPORT AR        60  86  66  89 /   0   0  10  10
PINE BLUFF AR     61  89  66  91 /   0   0   0  10
RUSSELLVILLE AR   62  88  67  90 /   0   0  20  20
SEARCY AR         60  87  65  90 /   0   0  10  10
STUTTGART AR      61  88  66  90 /   0   0   0  10
&&

.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...53 / LONG TERM...58




000
FXUS64 KLZK 271931
AFDLZK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
231 PM CDT THU AUG 27 2015

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...
A SHORTWAVE MOVING THROUGH THE RIDGE TO THE WEST WILL IMPACT THE
FORECAST AREA LATE TOMORROW NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...WHILE AT THE
SURFACE A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL STALL OUT NORTHWEST OF THE AREA.
THIS SHOULD PROVIDE A BIT OF A FOCUS FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE NORTHWEST ON FRIDAY
NIGHT...WITH SOME ACTIVITY MOVING ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE NORTH ON
SATURDAY AS THE SHORTWAVE PROGRESSES THROUGH THE AREA.

NAM SHOWS SOME CONVECTION DEVELOPING ACROSS THE WRN AND SWRN ZONES
DURING THAT PERIOD...ALTHOUGH THIS ISNT WIDELY SUPPORTED BY OTHER
MODELS. FOR NOW WILL GO AHEAD AND KEEP THE LOWER CHANCE POPS IN THE
NWRN AND NORTHERN ZONES FROM FRIDAY NIGHT THRU SATURDAY.

THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE THAT HAS BEEN TO THE WEST WILL BUILD BACK MORE
INTO THE CENTRAL PART OF THE COUNTRY BY SUNDAY...AND AS SUCH TEMPS
WILL BE CLIMBING BACK UP AGAIN...WITH MAX TEMPS IN THE 90S ACROSS
MUCH OF THE STATE...WITH MID TO UPPER 80S ACROSS THE NORTH.

&&

.LONG TERM...MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...
SOUTHERLY FLOW THROUGH THE LONG TERM WILL BRING MOISTURE BACK TO
THE REGION. HAVE KEPT WITH THE PREVIOUS FORECAST OF DIURNAL
CONVECTION...BUT POPS WILL ONLY BE SLIGHT CHANCE. HIGHS WILL WARM
BACK INTO THE UPPER 80S TO THE MID 90S.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BATESVILLE AR     60  86  66  89 /   0   0  10  10
CAMDEN AR         61  90  65  92 /   0   0   0  10
HARRISON AR       61  84  65  85 /   0   0  30  30
HOT SPRINGS AR    63  88  67  90 /   0   0  10  10
LITTLE ROCK   AR  63  89  67  91 /   0   0  10  10
MONTICELLO AR     61  90  66  91 /   0   0   0  10
MOUNT IDA AR      61  89  65  90 /   0   0  10  20
MOUNTAIN HOME AR  60  85  65  87 /   0   0  20  30
NEWPORT AR        60  86  66  89 /   0   0  10  10
PINE BLUFF AR     61  89  66  91 /   0   0   0  10
RUSSELLVILLE AR   62  88  67  90 /   0   0  20  20
SEARCY AR         60  87  65  90 /   0   0  10  10
STUTTGART AR      61  88  66  90 /   0   0   0  10
&&

.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...53 / LONG TERM...58



000
FXUS64 KLZK 271737 AAA
AFDLZK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
1237 PM CDT THU AUG 27 2015

.AVIATION...TAF CYCLE 27/18Z

VFR CONDS WL PREVAIL THRU THE PD. HIGH LVL CLOUDS WL CONT TO STREAM
SWD ACRS WRN AR THIS AFTN...ASSOCD WITH LINGERING CONVECTION OVR
ERN OK. ALS EXPECT SCT CU ACRS THE FA THIS AFTN...DISSIPATING ARND
SUNSET THIS EVENING. SFC WINDS WL GENERALLY BE FM THE E/SE AT 5 TO
8 KTS.
&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1028 AM CDT THU AUG 27 2015/

UPDATE...
MAKING SOME CHANGES TO THE FORECAST BASED UPON LATEST TRENDS.
STORM COMPLEX OVER NERN OK MOVING NEARLY SOUTH AND STAYING JUST ON
THE WESTERN SIDE OF THE ARKANSAS BORDER. HOWEVER...I CANNOT RULE
OUT THAT SOME PCPN COULD AFFECT WESTERN PARTS OF POLK...
SCOTT...AND EVEN LOGAN COUNTIES LATER ON...SO I HAVE DROPPED SOME
POPS IN THOSE AREAS. I HAVE ALSO ADJUSTED CLOUD COVER TO REFLECT
THE CIRRUS SHIELD ACROSS THE WESTERN ZONES ASSOCIATED WITH THE
STORM COMPLEX.

HAVE TWEAKED MAX TEMPS A BIT BASED ON THE LATEST TRENDS...ALONG
WITH SOME TWEAKS TO THE WINDS...MAINLY IN THE NWRN ZONES. 53
&&

.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&

$$

AVIATION...44



000
FXUS64 KLZK 271737 AAA
AFDLZK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
1237 PM CDT THU AUG 27 2015

.AVIATION...TAF CYCLE 27/18Z

VFR CONDS WL PREVAIL THRU THE PD. HIGH LVL CLOUDS WL CONT TO STREAM
SWD ACRS WRN AR THIS AFTN...ASSOCD WITH LINGERING CONVECTION OVR
ERN OK. ALS EXPECT SCT CU ACRS THE FA THIS AFTN...DISSIPATING ARND
SUNSET THIS EVENING. SFC WINDS WL GENERALLY BE FM THE E/SE AT 5 TO
8 KTS.
&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1028 AM CDT THU AUG 27 2015/

UPDATE...
MAKING SOME CHANGES TO THE FORECAST BASED UPON LATEST TRENDS.
STORM COMPLEX OVER NERN OK MOVING NEARLY SOUTH AND STAYING JUST ON
THE WESTERN SIDE OF THE ARKANSAS BORDER. HOWEVER...I CANNOT RULE
OUT THAT SOME PCPN COULD AFFECT WESTERN PARTS OF POLK...
SCOTT...AND EVEN LOGAN COUNTIES LATER ON...SO I HAVE DROPPED SOME
POPS IN THOSE AREAS. I HAVE ALSO ADJUSTED CLOUD COVER TO REFLECT
THE CIRRUS SHIELD ACROSS THE WESTERN ZONES ASSOCIATED WITH THE
STORM COMPLEX.

HAVE TWEAKED MAX TEMPS A BIT BASED ON THE LATEST TRENDS...ALONG
WITH SOME TWEAKS TO THE WINDS...MAINLY IN THE NWRN ZONES. 53
&&

.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&

$$

AVIATION...44




000
FXUS64 KLZK 271528
AFDLZK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
1028 AM CDT THU AUG 27 2015

.UPDATE...
MAKING SOME CHANGES TO THE FORECAST BASED UPON LATEST TRENDS.
STORM COMPLEX OVER NERN OK MOVING NEARLY SOUTH AND STAYING JUST ON
THE WESTERN SIDE OF THE ARKANSAS BORDER. HOWEVER...I CANNOT RULE
OUT THAT SOME PCPN COULD AFFECT WESTERN PARTS OF POLK...
SCOTT...AND EVEN LOGAN COUNTIES LATER ON...SO I HAVE DROPPED SOME
POPS IN THOSE AREAS. I HAVE ALSO ADJUSTED CLOUD COVER TO REFLECT
THE CIRRUS SHIELD ACROSS THE WESTERN ZONES ASSOCIATED WITH THE
STORM COMPLEX.

HAVE TWEAKED MAX TEMPS A BIT BASED ON THE LATEST TRENDS...ALONG
WITH SOME TWEAKS TO THE WINDS...MAINLY IN THE NWRN ZONES. 53

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 555 AM CDT THU AUG 27 2015/

AVIATION...

A FEW MID LEVEL CLOUDS ARE BEGINNING TO STREAM INTO NORTHERN
ARKANSAS...HOWEVER VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TO PERSIST THROUGH
THE TAF PERIOD. MODELS SUGGEST A FEW SHOWERS MAY APPROACH KHRO
TOWARDS THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD...BUT DO BELIEVE THAT THESE WILL
HOLD OFF UNTIL AFTER 12Z ON FRIDAY.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 444 AM CDT THU AUG 27 2015/

SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT
HIGH PRESSURE WILL KEEP ARKANSAS DRY TODAY. THE HIGH WILL SHIFT
TO THE EAST FRIDAY...AND THIS WILL ALLOW A WEAK COLD FRONT TO
APPROACH FROM THE PLAINS.

THE FRONT WILL BE TIED TO A FAIRLY STRONG STORM SYSTEM
TRACKING THROUGH THE UPPER MIDWEST. WITH ENERGY SURROUNDING
THE SYSTEM GOING WELL TO THE NORTH...AND WITH LITTLE MOISTURE
IN PLACE LOCALLY...THE FRONT WILL STRUGGLE TO PRODUCE
PRECIPITATION. FOR NOW...HAVE SLIGHT CHANCES FOR SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS FRIDAY NIGHT/SATURDAY.

AS FAR AS TEMPERATURES...READINGS WILL REMAIN BELOW NORMAL
TODAY. HOWEVER...THERE WILL BE SLOW WARMING THROUGH THE
PERIOD...WITH READINGS CLOSER TO NORMAL BY THIS WEEKEND.

LONG TERM...MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY
LITTLE CHANGE TO THE LONG TERM FORECAST WITH MODELS REMAINING IN
GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH THE PERIOD. MOISTURE WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE
ACROSS THE REGION BEGINNING TOWARDS THE END OF THE SHORT TERM AND
CONTINUING INTO THE LONG TERM WITH DEWPOINTS REMAINING IN THE UPPER
60S. DIURNAL CONVECTION WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH SLIGHT CHANCE POPS IN
THE FORECAST.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BATESVILLE AR     83  61  85  67 /   0   0   0  10
CAMDEN AR         87  62  89  65 /   0   0   0   0
HARRISON AR       82  61  83  66 /   0   0  10  30
HOT SPRINGS AR    87  63  88  67 /   0   0   0  10
LITTLE ROCK   AR  87  63  89  68 /   0   0   0  10
MONTICELLO AR     86  63  89  66 /   0   0   0   0
MOUNT IDA AR      89  61  88  66 /   0   0   0  10
MOUNTAIN HOME AR  80  61  84  66 /   0   0   0  20
NEWPORT AR        81  61  86  66 /   0   0   0  10
PINE BLUFF AR     85  62  88  66 /   0   0   0   0
RUSSELLVILLE AR   86  62  87  67 /   0   0   0  10
SEARCY AR         84  61  87  65 /   0   0   0  10
STUTTGART AR      85  62  87  66 /   0   0   0   0
&&

.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&

$$




000
FXUS64 KLZK 271528
AFDLZK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
1028 AM CDT THU AUG 27 2015

.UPDATE...
MAKING SOME CHANGES TO THE FORECAST BASED UPON LATEST TRENDS.
STORM COMPLEX OVER NERN OK MOVING NEARLY SOUTH AND STAYING JUST ON
THE WESTERN SIDE OF THE ARKANSAS BORDER. HOWEVER...I CANNOT RULE
OUT THAT SOME PCPN COULD AFFECT WESTERN PARTS OF POLK...
SCOTT...AND EVEN LOGAN COUNTIES LATER ON...SO I HAVE DROPPED SOME
POPS IN THOSE AREAS. I HAVE ALSO ADJUSTED CLOUD COVER TO REFLECT
THE CIRRUS SHIELD ACROSS THE WESTERN ZONES ASSOCIATED WITH THE
STORM COMPLEX.

HAVE TWEAKED MAX TEMPS A BIT BASED ON THE LATEST TRENDS...ALONG
WITH SOME TWEAKS TO THE WINDS...MAINLY IN THE NWRN ZONES. 53

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 555 AM CDT THU AUG 27 2015/

AVIATION...

A FEW MID LEVEL CLOUDS ARE BEGINNING TO STREAM INTO NORTHERN
ARKANSAS...HOWEVER VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TO PERSIST THROUGH
THE TAF PERIOD. MODELS SUGGEST A FEW SHOWERS MAY APPROACH KHRO
TOWARDS THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD...BUT DO BELIEVE THAT THESE WILL
HOLD OFF UNTIL AFTER 12Z ON FRIDAY.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 444 AM CDT THU AUG 27 2015/

SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT
HIGH PRESSURE WILL KEEP ARKANSAS DRY TODAY. THE HIGH WILL SHIFT
TO THE EAST FRIDAY...AND THIS WILL ALLOW A WEAK COLD FRONT TO
APPROACH FROM THE PLAINS.

THE FRONT WILL BE TIED TO A FAIRLY STRONG STORM SYSTEM
TRACKING THROUGH THE UPPER MIDWEST. WITH ENERGY SURROUNDING
THE SYSTEM GOING WELL TO THE NORTH...AND WITH LITTLE MOISTURE
IN PLACE LOCALLY...THE FRONT WILL STRUGGLE TO PRODUCE
PRECIPITATION. FOR NOW...HAVE SLIGHT CHANCES FOR SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS FRIDAY NIGHT/SATURDAY.

AS FAR AS TEMPERATURES...READINGS WILL REMAIN BELOW NORMAL
TODAY. HOWEVER...THERE WILL BE SLOW WARMING THROUGH THE
PERIOD...WITH READINGS CLOSER TO NORMAL BY THIS WEEKEND.

LONG TERM...MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY
LITTLE CHANGE TO THE LONG TERM FORECAST WITH MODELS REMAINING IN
GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH THE PERIOD. MOISTURE WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE
ACROSS THE REGION BEGINNING TOWARDS THE END OF THE SHORT TERM AND
CONTINUING INTO THE LONG TERM WITH DEWPOINTS REMAINING IN THE UPPER
60S. DIURNAL CONVECTION WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH SLIGHT CHANCE POPS IN
THE FORECAST.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BATESVILLE AR     83  61  85  67 /   0   0   0  10
CAMDEN AR         87  62  89  65 /   0   0   0   0
HARRISON AR       82  61  83  66 /   0   0  10  30
HOT SPRINGS AR    87  63  88  67 /   0   0   0  10
LITTLE ROCK   AR  87  63  89  68 /   0   0   0  10
MONTICELLO AR     86  63  89  66 /   0   0   0   0
MOUNT IDA AR      89  61  88  66 /   0   0   0  10
MOUNTAIN HOME AR  80  61  84  66 /   0   0   0  20
NEWPORT AR        81  61  86  66 /   0   0   0  10
PINE BLUFF AR     85  62  88  66 /   0   0   0   0
RUSSELLVILLE AR   86  62  87  67 /   0   0   0  10
SEARCY AR         84  61  87  65 /   0   0   0  10
STUTTGART AR      85  62  87  66 /   0   0   0   0
&&

.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&

$$




000
FXUS64 KLZK 271528
AFDLZK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
1028 AM CDT THU AUG 27 2015

.UPDATE...
MAKING SOME CHANGES TO THE FORECAST BASED UPON LATEST TRENDS.
STORM COMPLEX OVER NERN OK MOVING NEARLY SOUTH AND STAYING JUST ON
THE WESTERN SIDE OF THE ARKANSAS BORDER. HOWEVER...I CANNOT RULE
OUT THAT SOME PCPN COULD AFFECT WESTERN PARTS OF POLK...
SCOTT...AND EVEN LOGAN COUNTIES LATER ON...SO I HAVE DROPPED SOME
POPS IN THOSE AREAS. I HAVE ALSO ADJUSTED CLOUD COVER TO REFLECT
THE CIRRUS SHIELD ACROSS THE WESTERN ZONES ASSOCIATED WITH THE
STORM COMPLEX.

HAVE TWEAKED MAX TEMPS A BIT BASED ON THE LATEST TRENDS...ALONG
WITH SOME TWEAKS TO THE WINDS...MAINLY IN THE NWRN ZONES. 53

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 555 AM CDT THU AUG 27 2015/

AVIATION...

A FEW MID LEVEL CLOUDS ARE BEGINNING TO STREAM INTO NORTHERN
ARKANSAS...HOWEVER VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TO PERSIST THROUGH
THE TAF PERIOD. MODELS SUGGEST A FEW SHOWERS MAY APPROACH KHRO
TOWARDS THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD...BUT DO BELIEVE THAT THESE WILL
HOLD OFF UNTIL AFTER 12Z ON FRIDAY.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 444 AM CDT THU AUG 27 2015/

SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT
HIGH PRESSURE WILL KEEP ARKANSAS DRY TODAY. THE HIGH WILL SHIFT
TO THE EAST FRIDAY...AND THIS WILL ALLOW A WEAK COLD FRONT TO
APPROACH FROM THE PLAINS.

THE FRONT WILL BE TIED TO A FAIRLY STRONG STORM SYSTEM
TRACKING THROUGH THE UPPER MIDWEST. WITH ENERGY SURROUNDING
THE SYSTEM GOING WELL TO THE NORTH...AND WITH LITTLE MOISTURE
IN PLACE LOCALLY...THE FRONT WILL STRUGGLE TO PRODUCE
PRECIPITATION. FOR NOW...HAVE SLIGHT CHANCES FOR SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS FRIDAY NIGHT/SATURDAY.

AS FAR AS TEMPERATURES...READINGS WILL REMAIN BELOW NORMAL
TODAY. HOWEVER...THERE WILL BE SLOW WARMING THROUGH THE
PERIOD...WITH READINGS CLOSER TO NORMAL BY THIS WEEKEND.

LONG TERM...MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY
LITTLE CHANGE TO THE LONG TERM FORECAST WITH MODELS REMAINING IN
GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH THE PERIOD. MOISTURE WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE
ACROSS THE REGION BEGINNING TOWARDS THE END OF THE SHORT TERM AND
CONTINUING INTO THE LONG TERM WITH DEWPOINTS REMAINING IN THE UPPER
60S. DIURNAL CONVECTION WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH SLIGHT CHANCE POPS IN
THE FORECAST.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BATESVILLE AR     83  61  85  67 /   0   0   0  10
CAMDEN AR         87  62  89  65 /   0   0   0   0
HARRISON AR       82  61  83  66 /   0   0  10  30
HOT SPRINGS AR    87  63  88  67 /   0   0   0  10
LITTLE ROCK   AR  87  63  89  68 /   0   0   0  10
MONTICELLO AR     86  63  89  66 /   0   0   0   0
MOUNT IDA AR      89  61  88  66 /   0   0   0  10
MOUNTAIN HOME AR  80  61  84  66 /   0   0   0  20
NEWPORT AR        81  61  86  66 /   0   0   0  10
PINE BLUFF AR     85  62  88  66 /   0   0   0   0
RUSSELLVILLE AR   86  62  87  67 /   0   0   0  10
SEARCY AR         84  61  87  65 /   0   0   0  10
STUTTGART AR      85  62  87  66 /   0   0   0   0
&&

.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&

$$




000
FXUS64 KLZK 271528
AFDLZK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
1028 AM CDT THU AUG 27 2015

.UPDATE...
MAKING SOME CHANGES TO THE FORECAST BASED UPON LATEST TRENDS.
STORM COMPLEX OVER NERN OK MOVING NEARLY SOUTH AND STAYING JUST ON
THE WESTERN SIDE OF THE ARKANSAS BORDER. HOWEVER...I CANNOT RULE
OUT THAT SOME PCPN COULD AFFECT WESTERN PARTS OF POLK...
SCOTT...AND EVEN LOGAN COUNTIES LATER ON...SO I HAVE DROPPED SOME
POPS IN THOSE AREAS. I HAVE ALSO ADJUSTED CLOUD COVER TO REFLECT
THE CIRRUS SHIELD ACROSS THE WESTERN ZONES ASSOCIATED WITH THE
STORM COMPLEX.

HAVE TWEAKED MAX TEMPS A BIT BASED ON THE LATEST TRENDS...ALONG
WITH SOME TWEAKS TO THE WINDS...MAINLY IN THE NWRN ZONES. 53

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 555 AM CDT THU AUG 27 2015/

AVIATION...

A FEW MID LEVEL CLOUDS ARE BEGINNING TO STREAM INTO NORTHERN
ARKANSAS...HOWEVER VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TO PERSIST THROUGH
THE TAF PERIOD. MODELS SUGGEST A FEW SHOWERS MAY APPROACH KHRO
TOWARDS THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD...BUT DO BELIEVE THAT THESE WILL
HOLD OFF UNTIL AFTER 12Z ON FRIDAY.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 444 AM CDT THU AUG 27 2015/

SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT
HIGH PRESSURE WILL KEEP ARKANSAS DRY TODAY. THE HIGH WILL SHIFT
TO THE EAST FRIDAY...AND THIS WILL ALLOW A WEAK COLD FRONT TO
APPROACH FROM THE PLAINS.

THE FRONT WILL BE TIED TO A FAIRLY STRONG STORM SYSTEM
TRACKING THROUGH THE UPPER MIDWEST. WITH ENERGY SURROUNDING
THE SYSTEM GOING WELL TO THE NORTH...AND WITH LITTLE MOISTURE
IN PLACE LOCALLY...THE FRONT WILL STRUGGLE TO PRODUCE
PRECIPITATION. FOR NOW...HAVE SLIGHT CHANCES FOR SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS FRIDAY NIGHT/SATURDAY.

AS FAR AS TEMPERATURES...READINGS WILL REMAIN BELOW NORMAL
TODAY. HOWEVER...THERE WILL BE SLOW WARMING THROUGH THE
PERIOD...WITH READINGS CLOSER TO NORMAL BY THIS WEEKEND.

LONG TERM...MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY
LITTLE CHANGE TO THE LONG TERM FORECAST WITH MODELS REMAINING IN
GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH THE PERIOD. MOISTURE WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE
ACROSS THE REGION BEGINNING TOWARDS THE END OF THE SHORT TERM AND
CONTINUING INTO THE LONG TERM WITH DEWPOINTS REMAINING IN THE UPPER
60S. DIURNAL CONVECTION WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH SLIGHT CHANCE POPS IN
THE FORECAST.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BATESVILLE AR     83  61  85  67 /   0   0   0  10
CAMDEN AR         87  62  89  65 /   0   0   0   0
HARRISON AR       82  61  83  66 /   0   0  10  30
HOT SPRINGS AR    87  63  88  67 /   0   0   0  10
LITTLE ROCK   AR  87  63  89  68 /   0   0   0  10
MONTICELLO AR     86  63  89  66 /   0   0   0   0
MOUNT IDA AR      89  61  88  66 /   0   0   0  10
MOUNTAIN HOME AR  80  61  84  66 /   0   0   0  20
NEWPORT AR        81  61  86  66 /   0   0   0  10
PINE BLUFF AR     85  62  88  66 /   0   0   0   0
RUSSELLVILLE AR   86  62  87  67 /   0   0   0  10
SEARCY AR         84  61  87  65 /   0   0   0  10
STUTTGART AR      85  62  87  66 /   0   0   0   0
&&

.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&

$$




000
FXUS64 KLZK 271055
AFDLZK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
555 AM CDT THU AUG 27 2015

.AVIATION...

A FEW MID LEVEL CLOUDS ARE BEGINNING TO STREAM INTO NORTHERN
ARKANSAS...HOWEVER VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TO PERSIST THROUGH
THE TAF PERIOD. MODELS SUGGEST A FEW SHOWERS MAY APPROACH KHRO
TOWARDS THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD...BUT DO BELIEVE THAT THESE WILL
HOLD OFF UNTIL AFTER 12Z ON FRIDAY.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 444 AM CDT THU AUG 27 2015/

SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT
HIGH PRESSURE WILL KEEP ARKANSAS DRY TODAY. THE HIGH WILL SHIFT
TO THE EAST FRIDAY...AND THIS WILL ALLOW A WEAK COLD FRONT TO
APPROACH FROM THE PLAINS.

THE FRONT WILL BE TIED TO A FAIRLY STRONG STORM SYSTEM
TRACKING THROUGH THE UPPER MIDWEST. WITH ENERGY SURROUNDING
THE SYSTEM GOING WELL TO THE NORTH...AND WITH LITTLE MOISTURE
IN PLACE LOCALLY...THE FRONT WILL STRUGGLE TO PRODUCE
PRECIPITATION. FOR NOW...HAVE SLIGHT CHANCES FOR SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS FRIDAY NIGHT/SATURDAY.

AS FAR AS TEMPERATURES...READINGS WILL REMAIN BELOW NORMAL
TODAY. HOWEVER...THERE WILL BE SLOW WARMING THROUGH THE
PERIOD...WITH READINGS CLOSER TO NORMAL BY THIS WEEKEND.

LONG TERM...MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY
LITTLE CHANGE TO THE LONG TERM FORECAST WITH MODELS REMAINING IN
GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH THE PERIOD. MOISTURE WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE
ACROSS THE REGION BEGINNING TOWARDS THE END OF THE SHORT TERM AND
CONTINUING INTO THE LONG TERM WITH DEWPOINTS REMAINING IN THE UPPER
60S. DIURNAL CONVECTION WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH SLIGHT CHANCE POPS IN
THE FORECAST.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BATESVILLE AR     84  61  85  67 /   0   0   0  10
CAMDEN AR         89  62  89  65 /   0   0   0   0
HARRISON AR       83  61  83  66 /   0   0  10  30
HOT SPRINGS AR    88  63  88  67 /   0   0   0  10
LITTLE ROCK   AR  87  63  89  68 /   0   0   0  10
MONTICELLO AR     87  63  89  66 /   0   0   0   0
MOUNT IDA AR      89  61  88  66 /   0   0   0  10
MOUNTAIN HOME AR  83  61  84  66 /   0   0   0  20
NEWPORT AR        83  61  86  66 /   0   0   0  10
PINE BLUFF AR     86  62  88  66 /   0   0   0   0
RUSSELLVILLE AR   87  62  87  67 /   0   0   0  10
SEARCY AR         85  61  87  65 /   0   0   0  10
STUTTGART AR      85  62  87  66 /   0   0   0   0
&&

.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&

$$


AVIATION...65




000
FXUS64 KLZK 271055
AFDLZK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
555 AM CDT THU AUG 27 2015

.AVIATION...

A FEW MID LEVEL CLOUDS ARE BEGINNING TO STREAM INTO NORTHERN
ARKANSAS...HOWEVER VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TO PERSIST THROUGH
THE TAF PERIOD. MODELS SUGGEST A FEW SHOWERS MAY APPROACH KHRO
TOWARDS THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD...BUT DO BELIEVE THAT THESE WILL
HOLD OFF UNTIL AFTER 12Z ON FRIDAY.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 444 AM CDT THU AUG 27 2015/

SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT
HIGH PRESSURE WILL KEEP ARKANSAS DRY TODAY. THE HIGH WILL SHIFT
TO THE EAST FRIDAY...AND THIS WILL ALLOW A WEAK COLD FRONT TO
APPROACH FROM THE PLAINS.

THE FRONT WILL BE TIED TO A FAIRLY STRONG STORM SYSTEM
TRACKING THROUGH THE UPPER MIDWEST. WITH ENERGY SURROUNDING
THE SYSTEM GOING WELL TO THE NORTH...AND WITH LITTLE MOISTURE
IN PLACE LOCALLY...THE FRONT WILL STRUGGLE TO PRODUCE
PRECIPITATION. FOR NOW...HAVE SLIGHT CHANCES FOR SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS FRIDAY NIGHT/SATURDAY.

AS FAR AS TEMPERATURES...READINGS WILL REMAIN BELOW NORMAL
TODAY. HOWEVER...THERE WILL BE SLOW WARMING THROUGH THE
PERIOD...WITH READINGS CLOSER TO NORMAL BY THIS WEEKEND.

LONG TERM...MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY
LITTLE CHANGE TO THE LONG TERM FORECAST WITH MODELS REMAINING IN
GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH THE PERIOD. MOISTURE WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE
ACROSS THE REGION BEGINNING TOWARDS THE END OF THE SHORT TERM AND
CONTINUING INTO THE LONG TERM WITH DEWPOINTS REMAINING IN THE UPPER
60S. DIURNAL CONVECTION WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH SLIGHT CHANCE POPS IN
THE FORECAST.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BATESVILLE AR     84  61  85  67 /   0   0   0  10
CAMDEN AR         89  62  89  65 /   0   0   0   0
HARRISON AR       83  61  83  66 /   0   0  10  30
HOT SPRINGS AR    88  63  88  67 /   0   0   0  10
LITTLE ROCK   AR  87  63  89  68 /   0   0   0  10
MONTICELLO AR     87  63  89  66 /   0   0   0   0
MOUNT IDA AR      89  61  88  66 /   0   0   0  10
MOUNTAIN HOME AR  83  61  84  66 /   0   0   0  20
NEWPORT AR        83  61  86  66 /   0   0   0  10
PINE BLUFF AR     86  62  88  66 /   0   0   0   0
RUSSELLVILLE AR   87  62  87  67 /   0   0   0  10
SEARCY AR         85  61  87  65 /   0   0   0  10
STUTTGART AR      85  62  87  66 /   0   0   0   0
&&

.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&

$$


AVIATION...65




000
FXUS64 KLZK 271055
AFDLZK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
555 AM CDT THU AUG 27 2015

.AVIATION...

A FEW MID LEVEL CLOUDS ARE BEGINNING TO STREAM INTO NORTHERN
ARKANSAS...HOWEVER VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TO PERSIST THROUGH
THE TAF PERIOD. MODELS SUGGEST A FEW SHOWERS MAY APPROACH KHRO
TOWARDS THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD...BUT DO BELIEVE THAT THESE WILL
HOLD OFF UNTIL AFTER 12Z ON FRIDAY.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 444 AM CDT THU AUG 27 2015/

SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT
HIGH PRESSURE WILL KEEP ARKANSAS DRY TODAY. THE HIGH WILL SHIFT
TO THE EAST FRIDAY...AND THIS WILL ALLOW A WEAK COLD FRONT TO
APPROACH FROM THE PLAINS.

THE FRONT WILL BE TIED TO A FAIRLY STRONG STORM SYSTEM
TRACKING THROUGH THE UPPER MIDWEST. WITH ENERGY SURROUNDING
THE SYSTEM GOING WELL TO THE NORTH...AND WITH LITTLE MOISTURE
IN PLACE LOCALLY...THE FRONT WILL STRUGGLE TO PRODUCE
PRECIPITATION. FOR NOW...HAVE SLIGHT CHANCES FOR SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS FRIDAY NIGHT/SATURDAY.

AS FAR AS TEMPERATURES...READINGS WILL REMAIN BELOW NORMAL
TODAY. HOWEVER...THERE WILL BE SLOW WARMING THROUGH THE
PERIOD...WITH READINGS CLOSER TO NORMAL BY THIS WEEKEND.

LONG TERM...MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY
LITTLE CHANGE TO THE LONG TERM FORECAST WITH MODELS REMAINING IN
GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH THE PERIOD. MOISTURE WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE
ACROSS THE REGION BEGINNING TOWARDS THE END OF THE SHORT TERM AND
CONTINUING INTO THE LONG TERM WITH DEWPOINTS REMAINING IN THE UPPER
60S. DIURNAL CONVECTION WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH SLIGHT CHANCE POPS IN
THE FORECAST.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BATESVILLE AR     84  61  85  67 /   0   0   0  10
CAMDEN AR         89  62  89  65 /   0   0   0   0
HARRISON AR       83  61  83  66 /   0   0  10  30
HOT SPRINGS AR    88  63  88  67 /   0   0   0  10
LITTLE ROCK   AR  87  63  89  68 /   0   0   0  10
MONTICELLO AR     87  63  89  66 /   0   0   0   0
MOUNT IDA AR      89  61  88  66 /   0   0   0  10
MOUNTAIN HOME AR  83  61  84  66 /   0   0   0  20
NEWPORT AR        83  61  86  66 /   0   0   0  10
PINE BLUFF AR     86  62  88  66 /   0   0   0   0
RUSSELLVILLE AR   87  62  87  67 /   0   0   0  10
SEARCY AR         85  61  87  65 /   0   0   0  10
STUTTGART AR      85  62  87  66 /   0   0   0   0
&&

.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&

$$


AVIATION...65




000
FXUS64 KLZK 271055
AFDLZK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
555 AM CDT THU AUG 27 2015

.AVIATION...

A FEW MID LEVEL CLOUDS ARE BEGINNING TO STREAM INTO NORTHERN
ARKANSAS...HOWEVER VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TO PERSIST THROUGH
THE TAF PERIOD. MODELS SUGGEST A FEW SHOWERS MAY APPROACH KHRO
TOWARDS THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD...BUT DO BELIEVE THAT THESE WILL
HOLD OFF UNTIL AFTER 12Z ON FRIDAY.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 444 AM CDT THU AUG 27 2015/

SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT
HIGH PRESSURE WILL KEEP ARKANSAS DRY TODAY. THE HIGH WILL SHIFT
TO THE EAST FRIDAY...AND THIS WILL ALLOW A WEAK COLD FRONT TO
APPROACH FROM THE PLAINS.

THE FRONT WILL BE TIED TO A FAIRLY STRONG STORM SYSTEM
TRACKING THROUGH THE UPPER MIDWEST. WITH ENERGY SURROUNDING
THE SYSTEM GOING WELL TO THE NORTH...AND WITH LITTLE MOISTURE
IN PLACE LOCALLY...THE FRONT WILL STRUGGLE TO PRODUCE
PRECIPITATION. FOR NOW...HAVE SLIGHT CHANCES FOR SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS FRIDAY NIGHT/SATURDAY.

AS FAR AS TEMPERATURES...READINGS WILL REMAIN BELOW NORMAL
TODAY. HOWEVER...THERE WILL BE SLOW WARMING THROUGH THE
PERIOD...WITH READINGS CLOSER TO NORMAL BY THIS WEEKEND.

LONG TERM...MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY
LITTLE CHANGE TO THE LONG TERM FORECAST WITH MODELS REMAINING IN
GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH THE PERIOD. MOISTURE WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE
ACROSS THE REGION BEGINNING TOWARDS THE END OF THE SHORT TERM AND
CONTINUING INTO THE LONG TERM WITH DEWPOINTS REMAINING IN THE UPPER
60S. DIURNAL CONVECTION WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH SLIGHT CHANCE POPS IN
THE FORECAST.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BATESVILLE AR     84  61  85  67 /   0   0   0  10
CAMDEN AR         89  62  89  65 /   0   0   0   0
HARRISON AR       83  61  83  66 /   0   0  10  30
HOT SPRINGS AR    88  63  88  67 /   0   0   0  10
LITTLE ROCK   AR  87  63  89  68 /   0   0   0  10
MONTICELLO AR     87  63  89  66 /   0   0   0   0
MOUNT IDA AR      89  61  88  66 /   0   0   0  10
MOUNTAIN HOME AR  83  61  84  66 /   0   0   0  20
NEWPORT AR        83  61  86  66 /   0   0   0  10
PINE BLUFF AR     86  62  88  66 /   0   0   0   0
RUSSELLVILLE AR   87  62  87  67 /   0   0   0  10
SEARCY AR         85  61  87  65 /   0   0   0  10
STUTTGART AR      85  62  87  66 /   0   0   0   0
&&

.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&

$$


AVIATION...65




000
FXUS64 KLZK 271055
AFDLZK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
555 AM CDT THU AUG 27 2015

.AVIATION...

A FEW MID LEVEL CLOUDS ARE BEGINNING TO STREAM INTO NORTHERN
ARKANSAS...HOWEVER VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TO PERSIST THROUGH
THE TAF PERIOD. MODELS SUGGEST A FEW SHOWERS MAY APPROACH KHRO
TOWARDS THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD...BUT DO BELIEVE THAT THESE WILL
HOLD OFF UNTIL AFTER 12Z ON FRIDAY.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 444 AM CDT THU AUG 27 2015/

SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT
HIGH PRESSURE WILL KEEP ARKANSAS DRY TODAY. THE HIGH WILL SHIFT
TO THE EAST FRIDAY...AND THIS WILL ALLOW A WEAK COLD FRONT TO
APPROACH FROM THE PLAINS.

THE FRONT WILL BE TIED TO A FAIRLY STRONG STORM SYSTEM
TRACKING THROUGH THE UPPER MIDWEST. WITH ENERGY SURROUNDING
THE SYSTEM GOING WELL TO THE NORTH...AND WITH LITTLE MOISTURE
IN PLACE LOCALLY...THE FRONT WILL STRUGGLE TO PRODUCE
PRECIPITATION. FOR NOW...HAVE SLIGHT CHANCES FOR SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS FRIDAY NIGHT/SATURDAY.

AS FAR AS TEMPERATURES...READINGS WILL REMAIN BELOW NORMAL
TODAY. HOWEVER...THERE WILL BE SLOW WARMING THROUGH THE
PERIOD...WITH READINGS CLOSER TO NORMAL BY THIS WEEKEND.

LONG TERM...MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY
LITTLE CHANGE TO THE LONG TERM FORECAST WITH MODELS REMAINING IN
GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH THE PERIOD. MOISTURE WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE
ACROSS THE REGION BEGINNING TOWARDS THE END OF THE SHORT TERM AND
CONTINUING INTO THE LONG TERM WITH DEWPOINTS REMAINING IN THE UPPER
60S. DIURNAL CONVECTION WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH SLIGHT CHANCE POPS IN
THE FORECAST.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BATESVILLE AR     84  61  85  67 /   0   0   0  10
CAMDEN AR         89  62  89  65 /   0   0   0   0
HARRISON AR       83  61  83  66 /   0   0  10  30
HOT SPRINGS AR    88  63  88  67 /   0   0   0  10
LITTLE ROCK   AR  87  63  89  68 /   0   0   0  10
MONTICELLO AR     87  63  89  66 /   0   0   0   0
MOUNT IDA AR      89  61  88  66 /   0   0   0  10
MOUNTAIN HOME AR  83  61  84  66 /   0   0   0  20
NEWPORT AR        83  61  86  66 /   0   0   0  10
PINE BLUFF AR     86  62  88  66 /   0   0   0   0
RUSSELLVILLE AR   87  62  87  67 /   0   0   0  10
SEARCY AR         85  61  87  65 /   0   0   0  10
STUTTGART AR      85  62  87  66 /   0   0   0   0
&&

.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&

$$


AVIATION...65




000
FXUS64 KLZK 270944
AFDLZK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
444 AM CDT THU AUG 27 2015

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT
HIGH PRESSURE WILL KEEP ARKANSAS DRY TODAY. THE HIGH WILL SHIFT
TO THE EAST FRIDAY...AND THIS WILL ALLOW A WEAK COLD FRONT TO
APPROACH FROM THE PLAINS.

THE FRONT WILL BE TIED TO A FAIRLY STRONG STORM SYSTEM
TRACKING THROUGH THE UPPER MIDWEST. WITH ENERGY SURROUNDING
THE SYSTEM GOING WELL TO THE NORTH...AND WITH LITTLE MOISTURE
IN PLACE LOCALLY...THE FRONT WILL STRUGGLE TO PRODUCE
PRECIPITATION. FOR NOW...HAVE SLIGHT CHANCES FOR SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS FRIDAY NIGHT/SATURDAY.

AS FAR AS TEMPERATURES...READINGS WILL REMAIN BELOW NORMAL
TODAY. HOWEVER...THERE WILL BE SLOW WARMING THROUGH THE
PERIOD...WITH READINGS CLOSER TO NORMAL BY THIS WEEKEND.
&&

.LONG TERM...MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY
LITTLE CHANGE TO THE LONG TERM FORECAST WITH MODELS REMAINING IN
GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH THE PERIOD. MOISTURE WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE
ACROSS THE REGION BEGINNING TOWARDS THE END OF THE SHORT TERM AND
CONTINUING INTO THE LONG TERM WITH DEWPOINTS REMAINING IN THE UPPER
60S. DIURNAL CONVECTION WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH SLIGHT CHANCE POPS IN
THE FORECAST.
&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BATESVILLE AR     84  61  85  67 /   0   0   0  10
CAMDEN AR         89  62  89  65 /   0   0   0   0
HARRISON AR       83  61  83  66 /   0   0  10  30
HOT SPRINGS AR    88  63  88  67 /   0   0   0  10
LITTLE ROCK   AR  87  63  89  68 /   0   0   0  10
MONTICELLO AR     87  63  89  66 /   0   0   0   0
MOUNT IDA AR      89  61  88  66 /   0   0   0  10
MOUNTAIN HOME AR  83  61  84  66 /   0   0   0  20
NEWPORT AR        83  61  86  66 /   0   0   0  10
PINE BLUFF AR     86  62  88  66 /   0   0   0   0
RUSSELLVILLE AR   87  62  87  67 /   0   0   0  10
SEARCY AR         85  61  87  65 /   0   0   0  10
STUTTGART AR      85  62  87  66 /   0   0   0   0
&&

.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...46 / LONG TERM...65



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