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000
FXUS64 KLZK 251918
AFDLZK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
218 PM CDT SAT OCT 25 2014

.DISCUSSION...

MAIN CONCERNS THIS FORECAST CYCLE ARE FOG POTENTIAL TONIGHT AND
SUNDAY AM...TEMPERATURE WARM UP THROUGH MONDAY...THEN CHANCES OF
CONVECTION TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.

MORNING FOG DID DISSIPATE QUICKLY AFTER SUNRISE...AND WITH
CONTINUED SIMILAR WEATHER CONDITIONS TONIGHT...WILL AGAIN HAVE IT
IN THE FORECAST. OTHERWISE SKIES ARE SUNNY TODAY WITH TEMPS
WARMING TO THE UPPER 70S AND MAINLY 80S STATE WIDE THIS AFTERNOON.
SURFACE WINDS HAVE BEEN S TO SW AT 5 TO 10 MPH. THE UPPER HIGH
PRESSURE RIDGE OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS TO THE WESTERN PLAINS HAS
BUILT IN OVER THE CENTRAL U.S. AND WILL KEEP THE DRY AND WELL ABOVE
NORMAL TEMPS GOING THIS WEEKEND.

&&

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT

MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES ARE EXPECTED TONIGHT WITH AGAIN SOME FOG
FORMATION...MAINLY IN WESTERN TO CENTRAL AR. LOWS TONIGHT WILL BE
IN THE 50S TO SOME AROUND 60 DEGREES. WARM AND SUNNY FOR SUNDAY AS
THE UPPER RIDGE BUILDS IN A BIT MORE OVER THE REGION. HIGHS MAINLY
IN THE 80S. SUNDAY NIGHT AND INTO TUESDAY...THE UPPER RIDGE
GRADUALLY BREAKS DOWN AND MOVES EAST. SHORT WAVE ENERGY IS SEEN ON
MONDAY AND INCREASING CLOUDS WILL BE SEEN. MONDAY NIGHT AND
ESPECIALLY ON TUESDAY...THE RAIN CHANCES INCREASE WITH AN UPPER
TROUGH AND FRONTAL BOUNDARY MOVING THROUGH AR. SLIGHT CHANCES ARE
POSSIBLE MONDAY NIGHT IN THE NW...THEN BETTER CHANCES OF
CONVECTION ON TUESDAY AS THE FRONT SAGS INTO AR. AR THIS TIME
SEVERE STORM THREAT APPEARS LOW AND ISOLATED. MODEL TIMING HAS THE
FRONT INTO NW AR BY SUNRISE TUESDAY...THEN SLOWLY MOVING THROUGH
THE STATE AND NOT PUSHING OUT UNTIL WEDNESDAY. THE UPPER LOW IS
WELL OFF TO THE NORTH OVER THE GREAT LAKES AND SPEED WILL BE A BIT
SLOW. TEMPS WILL COOL BACK CLOSER TO NORMAL VALUES BEHIND THE
FRONT. HIGHS IN THE 60S TO 70S...WHILE LOWS FROM THE 40S TO 50S.

&&

.LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY

CHANCES FOR SHRA/TSRA CONTINUED INTO WED FOR S AR AS COLD FRONT
BEGINS TO SLOW ITS MOVEMENT TOWARD THE SOUTH. PCPN SHOULD BE SE OF
THE FORECAST AREA BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

NEXT SHORT WAVE ON THURSDAY WILL PROBABLY BRING ONLY CLOUDS...AS THE
BULK OF THE MOISTURE WILL HAVE BEEN CLEARED OUT BY THE COLD FRONT.

AFTER THAT...NWLY FLOW ALOFT WILL PREVAIL. ALTHOUGH LONGER RANGE
MODELS ARE NOT IN THE BEST OF AGREEMENT...IT DOES APPEAR THAT
MOISTURE WILL REMAIN TO THE WEST OF AR. THUS...ANY WEAK WAVES DIVING
DOWN IN THE NWLY FLOW SHOULD BRING ONLY CLOUDS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BATESVILLE AR     57  85  60  83 /   0   0   0   0
CAMDEN AR         58  87  56  86 /   0   0   0   0
HARRISON AR       58  86  61  82 /   0   0   0  10
HOT SPRINGS AR    59  86  59  83 /   0   0   0   0
LITTLE ROCK   AR  58  87  59  85 /   0   0   0   0
MONTICELLO AR     58  87  57  86 /   0   0   0   0
MOUNT IDA AR      57  85  58  83 /   0   0   0  10
MOUNTAIN HOME AR  56  86  60  82 /   0   0   0  10
NEWPORT AR        57  85  60  83 /   0   0   0   0
PINE BLUFF AR     58  86  58  85 /   0   0   0   0
RUSSELLVILLE AR   56  86  58  83 /   0   0   0  10
SEARCY AR         56  85  58  83 /   0   0   0   0
STUTTGART AR      58  86  58  84 /   0   0   0   0
&&

.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...59 / LONG TERM...28






000
FXUS64 KLZK 251918
AFDLZK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
218 PM CDT SAT OCT 25 2014

.DISCUSSION...

MAIN CONCERNS THIS FORECAST CYCLE ARE FOG POTENTIAL TONIGHT AND
SUNDAY AM...TEMPERATURE WARM UP THROUGH MONDAY...THEN CHANCES OF
CONVECTION TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.

MORNING FOG DID DISSIPATE QUICKLY AFTER SUNRISE...AND WITH
CONTINUED SIMILAR WEATHER CONDITIONS TONIGHT...WILL AGAIN HAVE IT
IN THE FORECAST. OTHERWISE SKIES ARE SUNNY TODAY WITH TEMPS
WARMING TO THE UPPER 70S AND MAINLY 80S STATE WIDE THIS AFTERNOON.
SURFACE WINDS HAVE BEEN S TO SW AT 5 TO 10 MPH. THE UPPER HIGH
PRESSURE RIDGE OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS TO THE WESTERN PLAINS HAS
BUILT IN OVER THE CENTRAL U.S. AND WILL KEEP THE DRY AND WELL ABOVE
NORMAL TEMPS GOING THIS WEEKEND.

&&

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT

MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES ARE EXPECTED TONIGHT WITH AGAIN SOME FOG
FORMATION...MAINLY IN WESTERN TO CENTRAL AR. LOWS TONIGHT WILL BE
IN THE 50S TO SOME AROUND 60 DEGREES. WARM AND SUNNY FOR SUNDAY AS
THE UPPER RIDGE BUILDS IN A BIT MORE OVER THE REGION. HIGHS MAINLY
IN THE 80S. SUNDAY NIGHT AND INTO TUESDAY...THE UPPER RIDGE
GRADUALLY BREAKS DOWN AND MOVES EAST. SHORT WAVE ENERGY IS SEEN ON
MONDAY AND INCREASING CLOUDS WILL BE SEEN. MONDAY NIGHT AND
ESPECIALLY ON TUESDAY...THE RAIN CHANCES INCREASE WITH AN UPPER
TROUGH AND FRONTAL BOUNDARY MOVING THROUGH AR. SLIGHT CHANCES ARE
POSSIBLE MONDAY NIGHT IN THE NW...THEN BETTER CHANCES OF
CONVECTION ON TUESDAY AS THE FRONT SAGS INTO AR. AR THIS TIME
SEVERE STORM THREAT APPEARS LOW AND ISOLATED. MODEL TIMING HAS THE
FRONT INTO NW AR BY SUNRISE TUESDAY...THEN SLOWLY MOVING THROUGH
THE STATE AND NOT PUSHING OUT UNTIL WEDNESDAY. THE UPPER LOW IS
WELL OFF TO THE NORTH OVER THE GREAT LAKES AND SPEED WILL BE A BIT
SLOW. TEMPS WILL COOL BACK CLOSER TO NORMAL VALUES BEHIND THE
FRONT. HIGHS IN THE 60S TO 70S...WHILE LOWS FROM THE 40S TO 50S.

&&

.LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY

CHANCES FOR SHRA/TSRA CONTINUED INTO WED FOR S AR AS COLD FRONT
BEGINS TO SLOW ITS MOVEMENT TOWARD THE SOUTH. PCPN SHOULD BE SE OF
THE FORECAST AREA BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

NEXT SHORT WAVE ON THURSDAY WILL PROBABLY BRING ONLY CLOUDS...AS THE
BULK OF THE MOISTURE WILL HAVE BEEN CLEARED OUT BY THE COLD FRONT.

AFTER THAT...NWLY FLOW ALOFT WILL PREVAIL. ALTHOUGH LONGER RANGE
MODELS ARE NOT IN THE BEST OF AGREEMENT...IT DOES APPEAR THAT
MOISTURE WILL REMAIN TO THE WEST OF AR. THUS...ANY WEAK WAVES DIVING
DOWN IN THE NWLY FLOW SHOULD BRING ONLY CLOUDS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BATESVILLE AR     57  85  60  83 /   0   0   0   0
CAMDEN AR         58  87  56  86 /   0   0   0   0
HARRISON AR       58  86  61  82 /   0   0   0  10
HOT SPRINGS AR    59  86  59  83 /   0   0   0   0
LITTLE ROCK   AR  58  87  59  85 /   0   0   0   0
MONTICELLO AR     58  87  57  86 /   0   0   0   0
MOUNT IDA AR      57  85  58  83 /   0   0   0  10
MOUNTAIN HOME AR  56  86  60  82 /   0   0   0  10
NEWPORT AR        57  85  60  83 /   0   0   0   0
PINE BLUFF AR     58  86  58  85 /   0   0   0   0
RUSSELLVILLE AR   56  86  58  83 /   0   0   0  10
SEARCY AR         56  85  58  83 /   0   0   0   0
STUTTGART AR      58  86  58  84 /   0   0   0   0
&&

.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...59 / LONG TERM...28






000
FXUS64 KLZK 251740
AFDLZK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
1240 PM CDT SAT OCT 25 2014

.AVIATION...
MOSTLY CLEAR UNTIL AFTER MIDNIGHT...THEN BECOMING MVFR DUE TO BR
AT MOST TAF SITES. FROM 10Z-13Z FQT IFR/OCNL LIFR DUE TO LOW
CEILINGS AND BR. BETWEEN 14Z AND 16Z SUNDAY BECOMING VFR.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1000 AM CDT SAT OCT 25 2014/

DISCUSSION...

OVERALL FORECAST ON TRACK. MORNING FOG IS DISSIPATING QUICKLY AND
EARLIER FORECAST UPDATE REMOVED FOG MENTION. SKIES WILL BE MOSTLY
SUNNY TODAY WITH TEMPS WARMING TO THE UPPER 70S AND MAINLY 80S STATE
WIDE THIS AFTERNOON. SURFACE WINDS WILL BE MORE FROM THE SW TODAY AT
5 TO 10 MPH. THE UPPER HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS
TO THE WESTERN PLAINS WAS BUILDING IN OVER THE CENTRAL U.S. AND WILL
KEEP THE DRY AND WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS GOING THIS WEEKEND. NO
SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO AFTERNOON FORECAST AT THIS TIME. (59)

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 644 AM CDT SAT OCT 25 2014/

AVIATION...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE AREA THIS MORNING. PATCHY FOG
WILL BE ACROSS MAINLY WEST AND SOUTHWEST SECTIONS THROUGH MID
MORNING WITH IFR CONDITIONS AT TIMES. SKIES WILL BE CLEAR THE REST
OF THE DAY WITH VFR CONDITIONS. FOG WILL DEVELOP AGAIN SUNDAY
MORNING WITH AT LEAST MVFR CONDITIONS.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 350 AM CDT SAT OCT 25 2014/

SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT

SFC HIGH PRES RDG WAS SITUATED JUST TO THE SE OF THE FA EARLY THIS
MRNG...RESULTING IN A LGT W/SWLY WIND FLOW IN MOST AREAS. SKIES WERE
CLEAR AND PATCHY FOG WAS AGAIN NOTED...ESP IN THE VALLEYS AND AREAS
LAKES.

UNSEASONABLY WARM TEMPS WL BE THE HEADLINE FOR THE WEEKEND AS HIGH
PRES ALOFT BLDS ACRS THE AREA. S/SWLY SFC WINDS WL INCRS OVR THE FA
ESP ON SUN AS A STORM SYS DVLPS IN THE PLAINS STATES. HIGHS TODAY WL
BE MAINLY IN THE LOWER AND MID 80S...WITH MID TO UPR 80S EXPECTED
SUN. A FEW RECORD HIGH TEMPS COULD AT LEAST BE TIED SUN AFTN.

THE UPR RDG IS PROGGED TO WEAKEN AND SHIFT EWD BY MON AS A BROAD UPR
TROF HEADS EWD ACRS THE ROCKIES AND EVENTUALLY INTO THE PLAINS
STATES. CLOUDS WL INCRS FM THE W ON MON AS AN ASSOCD CDFNT APCHS FM
THE NW. SCTD SHRA/ISOLD TSRA WL BE POSSIBLE ACRS NWRN AR STARTING
MON NGT. THE CDFNT WL SHIFT SEWD THRU AR TUE/EARLY TUE NGT WITH GOOD
CHCS OF SHRA/TSRA ACCOMPANYING THE FROPA. RAIN CHCS WL GRADUALLY
DIMINISH FM THE NW STARTING TUE NGT AND WED.

LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY

AN UPPER TROUGH WILL BE MOVING THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES AND
APPALACHIANS WEDNESDAY TO BEGIN THE LONG TERM PERIOD WITH AN UPPER
RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN U.S. THE TROUGH WILL MOVE TO THE EAST COAST
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. AS HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT BUILDS OVER THE WESTERN U.S.
THURSDAY...NORTHWEST FLOW WILL DEVELOP OVER ARKANSAS. THE UPPER
RIDGE WILL MOVE INTO THE PLAINS FRIDAY.

A COLD FRONT WILL BE JUST SOUTHEAST OF ARKANSAS TO BEGIN THE PERIOD.
THERE WILL BE A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CENTRAL AND
SOUTH AS A SHORT WAVE MOVES THROUGH THE AREA. ANOTHER SHORT WAVE
MOVES THROUGH MISSOURI THURSDAY AND SHOULD JUST BRING ADDITIONAL
CLOUD COVER TO NORTH ARKANSAS. DRIER AIR MOVES IN FOR SATURDAY.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THE
PERIOD.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BATESVILLE AR     83  56  85  60 /   0   0   0   0
CAMDEN AR         83  57  87  56 /   0   0   0   0
HARRISON AR       84  58  86  60 /   0   0   0   0
HOT SPRINGS AR    83  59  86  59 /   0   0   0   0
LITTLE ROCK   AR  83  58  87  59 /   0   0   0   0
MONTICELLO AR     84  58  87  58 /   0   0   0   0
MOUNT IDA AR      83  56  85  57 /   0   0   0   0
MOUNTAIN HOME AR  84  55  86  60 /   0   0   0   0
NEWPORT AR        84  57  85  60 /   0   0   0   0
PINE BLUFF AR     83  58  86  58 /   0   0   0   0
RUSSELLVILLE AR   83  55  86  58 /   0   0   0   0
SEARCY AR         83  55  85  57 /   0   0   0   0
STUTTGART AR      83  58  86  58 /   0   0   0   0
&&

.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&

$$


AVIATION...28






000
FXUS64 KLZK 251740
AFDLZK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
1240 PM CDT SAT OCT 25 2014

.AVIATION...
MOSTLY CLEAR UNTIL AFTER MIDNIGHT...THEN BECOMING MVFR DUE TO BR
AT MOST TAF SITES. FROM 10Z-13Z FQT IFR/OCNL LIFR DUE TO LOW
CEILINGS AND BR. BETWEEN 14Z AND 16Z SUNDAY BECOMING VFR.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1000 AM CDT SAT OCT 25 2014/

DISCUSSION...

OVERALL FORECAST ON TRACK. MORNING FOG IS DISSIPATING QUICKLY AND
EARLIER FORECAST UPDATE REMOVED FOG MENTION. SKIES WILL BE MOSTLY
SUNNY TODAY WITH TEMPS WARMING TO THE UPPER 70S AND MAINLY 80S STATE
WIDE THIS AFTERNOON. SURFACE WINDS WILL BE MORE FROM THE SW TODAY AT
5 TO 10 MPH. THE UPPER HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS
TO THE WESTERN PLAINS WAS BUILDING IN OVER THE CENTRAL U.S. AND WILL
KEEP THE DRY AND WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS GOING THIS WEEKEND. NO
SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO AFTERNOON FORECAST AT THIS TIME. (59)

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 644 AM CDT SAT OCT 25 2014/

AVIATION...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE AREA THIS MORNING. PATCHY FOG
WILL BE ACROSS MAINLY WEST AND SOUTHWEST SECTIONS THROUGH MID
MORNING WITH IFR CONDITIONS AT TIMES. SKIES WILL BE CLEAR THE REST
OF THE DAY WITH VFR CONDITIONS. FOG WILL DEVELOP AGAIN SUNDAY
MORNING WITH AT LEAST MVFR CONDITIONS.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 350 AM CDT SAT OCT 25 2014/

SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT

SFC HIGH PRES RDG WAS SITUATED JUST TO THE SE OF THE FA EARLY THIS
MRNG...RESULTING IN A LGT W/SWLY WIND FLOW IN MOST AREAS. SKIES WERE
CLEAR AND PATCHY FOG WAS AGAIN NOTED...ESP IN THE VALLEYS AND AREAS
LAKES.

UNSEASONABLY WARM TEMPS WL BE THE HEADLINE FOR THE WEEKEND AS HIGH
PRES ALOFT BLDS ACRS THE AREA. S/SWLY SFC WINDS WL INCRS OVR THE FA
ESP ON SUN AS A STORM SYS DVLPS IN THE PLAINS STATES. HIGHS TODAY WL
BE MAINLY IN THE LOWER AND MID 80S...WITH MID TO UPR 80S EXPECTED
SUN. A FEW RECORD HIGH TEMPS COULD AT LEAST BE TIED SUN AFTN.

THE UPR RDG IS PROGGED TO WEAKEN AND SHIFT EWD BY MON AS A BROAD UPR
TROF HEADS EWD ACRS THE ROCKIES AND EVENTUALLY INTO THE PLAINS
STATES. CLOUDS WL INCRS FM THE W ON MON AS AN ASSOCD CDFNT APCHS FM
THE NW. SCTD SHRA/ISOLD TSRA WL BE POSSIBLE ACRS NWRN AR STARTING
MON NGT. THE CDFNT WL SHIFT SEWD THRU AR TUE/EARLY TUE NGT WITH GOOD
CHCS OF SHRA/TSRA ACCOMPANYING THE FROPA. RAIN CHCS WL GRADUALLY
DIMINISH FM THE NW STARTING TUE NGT AND WED.

LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY

AN UPPER TROUGH WILL BE MOVING THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES AND
APPALACHIANS WEDNESDAY TO BEGIN THE LONG TERM PERIOD WITH AN UPPER
RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN U.S. THE TROUGH WILL MOVE TO THE EAST COAST
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. AS HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT BUILDS OVER THE WESTERN U.S.
THURSDAY...NORTHWEST FLOW WILL DEVELOP OVER ARKANSAS. THE UPPER
RIDGE WILL MOVE INTO THE PLAINS FRIDAY.

A COLD FRONT WILL BE JUST SOUTHEAST OF ARKANSAS TO BEGIN THE PERIOD.
THERE WILL BE A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CENTRAL AND
SOUTH AS A SHORT WAVE MOVES THROUGH THE AREA. ANOTHER SHORT WAVE
MOVES THROUGH MISSOURI THURSDAY AND SHOULD JUST BRING ADDITIONAL
CLOUD COVER TO NORTH ARKANSAS. DRIER AIR MOVES IN FOR SATURDAY.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THE
PERIOD.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BATESVILLE AR     83  56  85  60 /   0   0   0   0
CAMDEN AR         83  57  87  56 /   0   0   0   0
HARRISON AR       84  58  86  60 /   0   0   0   0
HOT SPRINGS AR    83  59  86  59 /   0   0   0   0
LITTLE ROCK   AR  83  58  87  59 /   0   0   0   0
MONTICELLO AR     84  58  87  58 /   0   0   0   0
MOUNT IDA AR      83  56  85  57 /   0   0   0   0
MOUNTAIN HOME AR  84  55  86  60 /   0   0   0   0
NEWPORT AR        84  57  85  60 /   0   0   0   0
PINE BLUFF AR     83  58  86  58 /   0   0   0   0
RUSSELLVILLE AR   83  55  86  58 /   0   0   0   0
SEARCY AR         83  55  85  57 /   0   0   0   0
STUTTGART AR      83  58  86  58 /   0   0   0   0
&&

.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&

$$


AVIATION...28






000
FXUS64 KLZK 251454 AAA
AFDLZK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
1000 AM CDT SAT OCT 25 2014

.DISCUSSION...

OVERALL FORECAST ON TRACK. MORNING FOG IS DISSIPATING QUICKLY AND
EARLIER FORECAST UPDATE REMOVED FOG MENTION. SKIES WILL BE MOSTLY
SUNNY TODAY WITH TEMPS WARMING TO THE UPPER 70S AND MAINLY 80S STATE
WIDE THIS AFTERNOON. SURFACE WINDS WILL BE MORE FROM THE SW TODAY AT
5 TO 10 MPH. THE UPPER HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS
TO THE WESTERN PLAINS WAS BUILDING IN OVER THE CENTRAL U.S. AND WILL
KEEP THE DRY AND WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS GOING THIS WEEKEND. NO
SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO AFTERNOON FORECAST AT THIS TIME. (59)

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 644 AM CDT SAT OCT 25 2014/

.AVIATION...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE AREA THIS MORNING. PATCHY FOG
WILL BE ACROSS MAINLY WEST AND SOUTHWEST SECTIONS THROUGH MID
MORNING WITH IFR CONDITIONS AT TIMES. SKIES WILL BE CLEAR THE REST
OF THE DAY WITH VFR CONDITIONS. FOG WILL DEVELOP AGAIN SUNDAY
MORNING WITH AT LEAST MVFR CONDITIONS.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 350 AM CDT SAT OCT 25 2014/

SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT

SFC HIGH PRES RDG WAS SITUATED JUST TO THE SE OF THE FA EARLY THIS
MRNG...RESULTING IN A LGT W/SWLY WIND FLOW IN MOST AREAS. SKIES WERE
CLEAR AND PATCHY FOG WAS AGAIN NOTED...ESP IN THE VALLEYS AND AREAS
LAKES.

UNSEASONABLY WARM TEMPS WL BE THE HEADLINE FOR THE WEEKEND AS HIGH
PRES ALOFT BLDS ACRS THE AREA. S/SWLY SFC WINDS WL INCRS OVR THE FA
ESP ON SUN AS A STORM SYS DVLPS IN THE PLAINS STATES. HIGHS TODAY WL
BE MAINLY IN THE LOWER AND MID 80S...WITH MID TO UPR 80S EXPECTED
SUN. A FEW RECORD HIGH TEMPS COULD AT LEAST BE TIED SUN AFTN.

THE UPR RDG IS PROGGED TO WEAKEN AND SHIFT EWD BY MON AS A BROAD UPR
TROF HEADS EWD ACRS THE ROCKIES AND EVENTUALLY INTO THE PLAINS
STATES. CLOUDS WL INCRS FM THE W ON MON AS AN ASSOCD CDFNT APCHS FM
THE NW. SCTD SHRA/ISOLD TSRA WL BE POSSIBLE ACRS NWRN AR STARTING
MON NGT. THE CDFNT WL SHIFT SEWD THRU AR TUE/EARLY TUE NGT WITH GOOD
CHCS OF SHRA/TSRA ACCOMPANYING THE FROPA. RAIN CHCS WL GRADUALLY
DIMINISH FM THE NW STARTING TUE NGT AND WED.

LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY

AN UPPER TROUGH WILL BE MOVING THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES AND
APPALACHIANS WEDNESDAY TO BEGIN THE LONG TERM PERIOD WITH AN UPPER
RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN U.S. THE TROUGH WILL MOVE TO THE EAST COAST
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. AS HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT BUILDS OVER THE WESTERN U.S.
THURSDAY...NORTHWEST FLOW WILL DEVELOP OVER ARKANSAS. THE UPPER
RIDGE WILL MOVE INTO THE PLAINS FRIDAY.

A COLD FRONT WILL BE JUST SOUTHEAST OF ARKANSAS TO BEGIN THE PERIOD.
THERE WILL BE A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CENTRAL AND
SOUTH AS A SHORT WAVE MOVES THROUGH THE AREA. ANOTHER SHORT WAVE
MOVES THROUGH MISSOURI THURSDAY AND SHOULD JUST BRING ADDITIONAL
CLOUD COVER TO NORTH ARKANSAS. DRIER AIR MOVES IN FOR SATURDAY.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THE
PERIOD.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BATESVILLE AR     83  56  85  60 /   0   0   0   0
CAMDEN AR         83  57  87  56 /   0   0   0   0
HARRISON AR       84  58  86  60 /   0   0   0   0
HOT SPRINGS AR    83  59  86  59 /   0   0   0   0
LITTLE ROCK   AR  84  58  87  59 /   0   0   0   0
MONTICELLO AR     84  58  87  58 /   0   0   0   0
MOUNT IDA AR      83  56  85  57 /   0   0   0   0
MOUNTAIN HOME AR  84  55  86  60 /   0   0   0   0
NEWPORT AR        84  57  85  60 /   0   0   0   0
PINE BLUFF AR     83  58  86  58 /   0   0   0   0
RUSSELLVILLE AR   84  55  86  58 /   0   0   0   0
SEARCY AR         83  55  85  57 /   0   0   0   0
STUTTGART AR      83  58  86  58 /   0   0   0   0
&&

.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&

$$


AVIATION...51









000
FXUS64 KLZK 251144
AFDLZK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
644 AM CDT SAT OCT 25 2014

.AVIATION...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE AREA THIS MORNING. PATCHY FOG
WILL BE ACROSS MAINLY WEST AND SOUTHWEST SECTIONS THROUGH MID
MORNING WITH IFR CONDITIONS AT TIMES. SKIES WILL BE CLEAR THE REST
OF THE DAY WITH VFR CONDITIONS. FOG WILL DEVELOP AGAIN SUNDAY
MORNING WITH AT LEAST MVFR CONDITIONS.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 350 AM CDT SAT OCT 25 2014/

SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT

SFC HIGH PRES RDG WAS SITUATED JUST TO THE SE OF THE FA EARLY THIS
MRNG...RESULTING IN A LGT W/SWLY WIND FLOW IN MOST AREAS. SKIES WERE
CLEAR AND PATCHY FOG WAS AGAIN NOTED...ESP IN THE VALLEYS AND AREAS
LAKES.

UNSEASONABLY WARM TEMPS WL BE THE HEADLINE FOR THE WEEKEND AS HIGH
PRES ALOFT BLDS ACRS THE AREA. S/SWLY SFC WINDS WL INCRS OVR THE FA
ESP ON SUN AS A STORM SYS DVLPS IN THE PLAINS STATES. HIGHS TODAY WL
BE MAINLY IN THE LOWER AND MID 80S...WITH MID TO UPR 80S EXPECTED
SUN. A FEW RECORD HIGH TEMPS COULD AT LEAST BE TIED SUN AFTN.

THE UPR RDG IS PROGGED TO WEAKEN AND SHIFT EWD BY MON AS A BROAD UPR
TROF HEADS EWD ACRS THE ROCKIES AND EVENTUALLY INTO THE PLAINS
STATES. CLOUDS WL INCRS FM THE W ON MON AS AN ASSOCD CDFNT APCHS FM
THE NW. SCTD SHRA/ISOLD TSRA WL BE POSSIBLE ACRS NWRN AR STARTING
MON NGT. THE CDFNT WL SHIFT SEWD THRU AR TUE/EARLY TUE NGT WITH GOOD
CHCS OF SHRA/TSRA ACCOMPANYING THE FROPA. RAIN CHCS WL GRADUALLY
DIMINISH FM THE NW STARTING TUE NGT AND WED.

LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY

AN UPPER TROUGH WILL BE MOVING THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES AND
APPALACHIANS WEDNESDAY TO BEGIN THE LONG TERM PERIOD WITH AN UPPER
RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN U.S. THE TROUGH WILL MOVE TO THE EAST COAST
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. AS HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT BUILDS OVER THE WESTERN U.S.
THURSDAY...NORTHWEST FLOW WILL DEVELOP OVER ARKANSAS. THE UPPER
RIDGE WILL MOVE INTO THE PLAINS FRIDAY.

A COLD FRONT WILL BE JUST SOUTHEAST OF ARKANSAS TO BEGIN THE PERIOD.
THERE WILL BE A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CENTRAL AND
SOUTH AS A SHORT WAVE MOVES THROUGH THE AREA. ANOTHER SHORT WAVE
MOVES THROUGH MISSOURI THURSDAY AND SHOULD JUST BRING ADDITIONAL
CLOUD COVER TO NORTH ARKANSAS. DRIER AIR MOVES IN FOR SATURDAY.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THE
PERIOD.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BATESVILLE AR     83  56  85  60 /   0   0   0   0
CAMDEN AR         83  57  87  56 /   0   0   0   0
HARRISON AR       84  58  86  60 /   0   0   0   0
HOT SPRINGS AR    83  59  86  59 /   0   0   0   0
LITTLE ROCK   AR  84  58  87  59 /   0   0   0   0
MONTICELLO AR     84  58  87  58 /   0   0   0   0
MOUNT IDA AR      83  56  85  57 /   0   0   0   0
MOUNTAIN HOME AR  84  55  86  60 /   0   0   0   0
NEWPORT AR        84  57  85  60 /   0   0   0   0
PINE BLUFF AR     83  58  86  58 /   0   0   0   0
RUSSELLVILLE AR   84  55  86  58 /   0   0   0   0
SEARCY AR         83  55  85  57 /   0   0   0   0
STUTTGART AR      83  58  86  58 /   0   0   0   0
&&

.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&

$$


AVIATION...51






000
FXUS64 KLZK 251144
AFDLZK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
644 AM CDT SAT OCT 25 2014

.AVIATION...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE AREA THIS MORNING. PATCHY FOG
WILL BE ACROSS MAINLY WEST AND SOUTHWEST SECTIONS THROUGH MID
MORNING WITH IFR CONDITIONS AT TIMES. SKIES WILL BE CLEAR THE REST
OF THE DAY WITH VFR CONDITIONS. FOG WILL DEVELOP AGAIN SUNDAY
MORNING WITH AT LEAST MVFR CONDITIONS.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 350 AM CDT SAT OCT 25 2014/

SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT

SFC HIGH PRES RDG WAS SITUATED JUST TO THE SE OF THE FA EARLY THIS
MRNG...RESULTING IN A LGT W/SWLY WIND FLOW IN MOST AREAS. SKIES WERE
CLEAR AND PATCHY FOG WAS AGAIN NOTED...ESP IN THE VALLEYS AND AREAS
LAKES.

UNSEASONABLY WARM TEMPS WL BE THE HEADLINE FOR THE WEEKEND AS HIGH
PRES ALOFT BLDS ACRS THE AREA. S/SWLY SFC WINDS WL INCRS OVR THE FA
ESP ON SUN AS A STORM SYS DVLPS IN THE PLAINS STATES. HIGHS TODAY WL
BE MAINLY IN THE LOWER AND MID 80S...WITH MID TO UPR 80S EXPECTED
SUN. A FEW RECORD HIGH TEMPS COULD AT LEAST BE TIED SUN AFTN.

THE UPR RDG IS PROGGED TO WEAKEN AND SHIFT EWD BY MON AS A BROAD UPR
TROF HEADS EWD ACRS THE ROCKIES AND EVENTUALLY INTO THE PLAINS
STATES. CLOUDS WL INCRS FM THE W ON MON AS AN ASSOCD CDFNT APCHS FM
THE NW. SCTD SHRA/ISOLD TSRA WL BE POSSIBLE ACRS NWRN AR STARTING
MON NGT. THE CDFNT WL SHIFT SEWD THRU AR TUE/EARLY TUE NGT WITH GOOD
CHCS OF SHRA/TSRA ACCOMPANYING THE FROPA. RAIN CHCS WL GRADUALLY
DIMINISH FM THE NW STARTING TUE NGT AND WED.

LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY

AN UPPER TROUGH WILL BE MOVING THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES AND
APPALACHIANS WEDNESDAY TO BEGIN THE LONG TERM PERIOD WITH AN UPPER
RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN U.S. THE TROUGH WILL MOVE TO THE EAST COAST
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. AS HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT BUILDS OVER THE WESTERN U.S.
THURSDAY...NORTHWEST FLOW WILL DEVELOP OVER ARKANSAS. THE UPPER
RIDGE WILL MOVE INTO THE PLAINS FRIDAY.

A COLD FRONT WILL BE JUST SOUTHEAST OF ARKANSAS TO BEGIN THE PERIOD.
THERE WILL BE A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CENTRAL AND
SOUTH AS A SHORT WAVE MOVES THROUGH THE AREA. ANOTHER SHORT WAVE
MOVES THROUGH MISSOURI THURSDAY AND SHOULD JUST BRING ADDITIONAL
CLOUD COVER TO NORTH ARKANSAS. DRIER AIR MOVES IN FOR SATURDAY.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THE
PERIOD.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BATESVILLE AR     83  56  85  60 /   0   0   0   0
CAMDEN AR         83  57  87  56 /   0   0   0   0
HARRISON AR       84  58  86  60 /   0   0   0   0
HOT SPRINGS AR    83  59  86  59 /   0   0   0   0
LITTLE ROCK   AR  84  58  87  59 /   0   0   0   0
MONTICELLO AR     84  58  87  58 /   0   0   0   0
MOUNT IDA AR      83  56  85  57 /   0   0   0   0
MOUNTAIN HOME AR  84  55  86  60 /   0   0   0   0
NEWPORT AR        84  57  85  60 /   0   0   0   0
PINE BLUFF AR     83  58  86  58 /   0   0   0   0
RUSSELLVILLE AR   84  55  86  58 /   0   0   0   0
SEARCY AR         83  55  85  57 /   0   0   0   0
STUTTGART AR      83  58  86  58 /   0   0   0   0
&&

.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&

$$


AVIATION...51






000
FXUS64 KLZK 250851
AFDLZK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
350 AM CDT SAT OCT 25 2014

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT

SFC HIGH PRES RDG WAS SITUATED JUST TO THE SE OF THE FA EARLY THIS
MRNG...RESULTING IN A LGT W/SWLY WIND FLOW IN MOST AREAS. SKIES WERE
CLEAR AND PATCHY FOG WAS AGAIN NOTED...ESP IN THE VALLEYS AND AREAS
LAKES.

UNSEASONABLY WARM TEMPS WL BE THE HEADLINE FOR THE WEEKEND AS HIGH
PRES ALOFT BLDS ACRS THE AREA. S/SWLY SFC WINDS WL INCRS OVR THE FA
ESP ON SUN AS A STORM SYS DVLPS IN THE PLAINS STATES. HIGHS TODAY WL
BE MAINLY IN THE LOWER AND MID 80S...WITH MID TO UPR 80S EXPECTED
SUN. A FEW RECORD HIGH TEMPS COULD AT LEAST BE TIED SUN AFTN.

THE UPR RDG IS PROGGED TO WEAKEN AND SHIFT EWD BY MON AS A BROAD UPR
TROF HEADS EWD ACRS THE ROCKIES AND EVENTUALLY INTO THE PLAINS
STATES. CLOUDS WL INCRS FM THE W ON MON AS AN ASSOCD CDFNT APCHS FM
THE NW. SCTD SHRA/ISOLD TSRA WL BE POSSIBLE ACRS NWRN AR STARTING
MON NGT. THE CDFNT WL SHIFT SEWD THRU AR TUE/EARLY TUE NGT WITH GOOD
CHCS OF SHRA/TSRA ACCOMPANYING THE FROPA. RAIN CHCS WL GRADUALLY
DIMINISH FM THE NW STARTING TUE NGT AND WED.
&&

.LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY

AN UPPER TROUGH WILL BE MOVING THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES AND
APPALACHIANS WEDNESDAY TO BEGIN THE LONG TERM PERIOD WITH AN UPPER
RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN U.S. THE TROUGH WILL MOVE TO THE EAST COAST
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. AS HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT BUILDS OVER THE WESTERN U.S.
THURSDAY...NORTHWEST FLOW WILL DEVELOP OVER ARKANSAS. THE UPPER
RIDGE WILL MOVE INTO THE PLAINS FRIDAY.

A COLD FRONT WILL BE JUST SOUTHEAST OF ARKANSAS TO BEGIN THE PERIOD.
THERE WILL BE A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CENTRAL AND
SOUTH AS A SHORT WAVE MOVES THROUGH THE AREA. ANOTHER SHORT WAVE
MOVES THROUGH MISSOURI THURSDAY AND SHOULD JUST BRING ADDITIONAL
CLOUD COVER TO NORTH ARKANSAS. DRIER AIR MOVES IN FOR SATURDAY.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THE
PERIOD.
&&

.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...44 / LONG TERM...51











000
FXUS64 KLZK 250544
AFDLZK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
1244 AM CDT SAT OCT 25 2014

.AVIATION...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE AREA TODAY. MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES
ARE EXPECTED WTIH JUST A FEW PASSING HIGH CLOUDS. PATCHY FOG IS
EXPECTED IN THE MORNING WITH IFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE IN THE
SOUTHWEST THIS MORNING. OTHERWISE EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 609 PM CDT FRI OCT 24 2014/

AVIATION...
SCT HIGH CLOUDS WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA OVERNIGHT. FOG FORMATION
IS EXPECTED ONCE AGAIN IN THE FAVORED AREAS NEAR BODIES OF WATER.
WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE WEST...AND BE AROUND 7 KNOTS DURING THE
AFTERNOON HOURS.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 201 PM CDT FRI OCT 24 2014/

DISCUSSION...

MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS IN THIS CYCLE ARE FOG POTENTIAL TONIGHT.
THEN A WARMING TREND OVER THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. THEN A
CHANCE OF CONVECTION LATE MONDAY TO MID WEEK WITH AN UPPER AND
SURFACE SYSTEM TO AFFECT AR.

MORNING FOG DID DISSIPATE BY NOON...AND WILL AGAIN INCLUDE SOME
TONIGHT WITH SIMILAR WEATHER CONDITIONS EXPECTED. THE UPPER
TROUGH HAS MOVED OUT OF THE REGION TO THE EAST...WHILE
UPSTREAM...A SHORT WAVE WITH SOME MOISTURE WAS OVER THE CENTRAL
PLAINS. HAVE SEEN SOME HIGH CLOUDS STREAMING SE INTO AR THIS
AFTERNOON. ATMOSPHERE REMAINS DRY WITH 12Z KLZK SOUNDING HAVING A
PRECIP WATER VALUE OF 0.63 INCHES...WITH ONLY MOISTURE IN LOWER 5K
FEET. QUITE DRY ALOFT. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE IS OVER AR AT THIS
TIME...WITH DEW POINT TEMPS IN THE LOWER 50S. TEMPS WERE WARMING
TODAY INTO THE 60S AND MAINLY 70S.

SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT

MOSTLY CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES ARE EXPECTED TONIGHT WITH
PATCHY FOG AGAIN. THE WEAK SHORT WAVE WILL BRING SOME HIGH CLOUDS
TO AR AND LIMIT FOG FORMATION. ISOLATED DENSE WILL BE POSSIBLE IN
RIVER VALLEYS AND ISOLATED NORMAL LOCATIONS BUT WILL NO BE
WIDESPREAD ENOUGH TO DELINEATE IN THE FORECAST. LOWS TONIGHT
MOSTLY IN THE 50S. OVER THE WEEKEND...THE UPPER RIDGE BUILDS IN
OVER THE REGION AS THE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE STARTS OVER AR THEN
SHIFTS MORE TO THE SE AND A S TO SW WIND FLOW RETURNS TO AR. HIGHS
WILL REACH THE 80S...WITH LOWS IN THE 50S TO SOME 60S. PATCHY FOG
WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE IN SPOTS. ON MONDAY THE UPPER RIDGE DOES
MOVE EAST AS SHORT WAVE ENERGY BEGINS TO LIFT TOWARD AR. A FRONTAL
BOUNDARY ALSO APPROACHES THE REGION...AND CHANCES OF CONVECTION
ARE BACK IN THE FORECAST FOR MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY.

LONG TERM...TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY

NEW MODEL RUNS CONTINUE TO GENERATE A LITTLE MORE QPF ALONG A SLOW
MOVING FRONTAL BOUNDARY THAT COMES IN EARLY IN THE PERIOD AND STICKS
AROUND THROUGH WEDNESDAY. MEDIUM RANGE MODELS REMAIN IN DECENT
ENOUGH AGREEMENT THAT A BLEND OF SOLUTIONS WILL BE USED IN SPITE OF
THE NEW EURO BLOWING THE FRONT MOVING THROUGH FASTER. SINCE THIS IS
THE FIRST RUN SHOWING THIS INCREASED SPEED...WILL LEAN SLIGHTLY
TOWARDS THE GFS FOR NOW.

PERIOD STARTS WITH UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OFF THE EAST
COAST OF FLORIDA WITH AN OPEN TROUGH IN THE PROCESS OF CLOSING OFF
OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST. ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW WILL BE LOCATED OVER
THE UPPER MICHIGAN PENINSULA WITH ATTENDANT COLD FRONT ENTERING THE
FAR NORTHWEST CORNER OF THE STATE.

FRONT WILL SAG SLOWLY TO THE SOUTH AS IT RUNS INTO THE FLORIDA HIGH.
MODELS NOW SHOWING DECENT ENOUGH MOISTURE RETURN THAT POPS WILL NEED
TO BE BUMPED INTO THE CHANCE CATEGORY JUST ABOUT EVERYWHERE.
PRECIPITATION CHANCES MAY BE INCREASED SOMEWHAT AS A WEAK WAVE MOVES
TO THE NORTH BUT A WAIT AND SEE APPROACH WILL BE TAKEN HERE. THE
BOUNDARY FINALLY CLEARS THE STATE LATE WEDNESDAY OR EARLY THURSDAY
TAKING PRECIP CHANCES WITH IT.

TEMPERATURES STILL EXPECTED TO BE ABOVE NORMAL ON TUESDAY IN ADVANCE
OF THE FRONT WITH READINGS CLOSER TO NORMAL DAYS SIX AND SEVEN. MEX
GUIDANCE LOOK REASONABLE AND WILL GENERALLY BE ACCEPTED.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BATESVILLE AR     82  57  84  59 /   0   0   0   0
CAMDEN AR         83  56  86  57 /   0   0   0   0
HARRISON AR       83  58  84  59 /   0   0   0   0
HOT SPRINGS AR    82  58  85  59 /   0   0   0   0
LITTLE ROCK   AR  83  58  85  59 /   0   0   0   0
MONTICELLO AR     83  57  86  59 /   0   0   0   0
MOUNT IDA AR      82  55  84  59 /   0   0   0   0
MOUNTAIN HOME AR  84  55  85  59 /   0   0   0   0
NEWPORT AR        83  57  84  60 /   0   0   0   0
PINE BLUFF AR     82  57  85  58 /   0   0   0   0
RUSSELLVILLE AR   83  55  85  57 /   0   0   0   0
SEARCY AR         82  55  85  57 /   0   0   0   0
STUTTGART AR      83  58  85  59 /   0   0   0   0
&&

.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&

$$


AVIATION...51






000
FXUS64 KLZK 242309 AAA
AFDLZK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
609 PM CDT FRI OCT 24 2014

.AVIATION...
SCT HIGH CLOUDS WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA OVERNIGHT. FOG FORMATION
IS EXPECTED ONCE AGAIN IN THE FAVORED AREAS NEAR BODIES OF WATER.
WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE WEST...AND BE AROUND 7 KNOTS DURING THE
AFTERNOON HOURS.
&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 201 PM CDT FRI OCT 24 2014/

DISCUSSION...

MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS IN THIS CYCLE ARE FOG POTENTIAL TONIGHT.
THEN A WARMING TREND OVER THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. THEN A
CHANCE OF CONVECTION LATE MONDAY TO MID WEEK WITH AN UPPER AND
SURFACE SYSTEM TO AFFECT AR.

MORNING FOG DID DISSIPATE BY NOON...AND WILL AGAIN INCLUDE SOME
TONIGHT WITH SIMILAR WEATHER CONDITIONS EXPECTED. THE UPPER
TROUGH HAS MOVED OUT OF THE REGION TO THE EAST...WHILE
UPSTREAM...A SHORT WAVE WITH SOME MOISTURE WAS OVER THE CENTRAL
PLAINS. HAVE SEEN SOME HIGH CLOUDS STREAMING SE INTO AR THIS
AFTERNOON. ATMOSPHERE REMAINS DRY WITH 12Z KLZK SOUNDING HAVING A
PRECIP WATER VALUE OF 0.63 INCHES...WITH ONLY MOISTURE IN LOWER 5K
FEET. QUITE DRY ALOFT. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE IS OVER AR AT THIS
TIME...WITH DEW POINT TEMPS IN THE LOWER 50S. TEMPS WERE WARMING
TODAY INTO THE 60S AND MAINLY 70S.

SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT

MOSTLY CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES ARE EXPECTED TONIGHT WITH
PATCHY FOG AGAIN. THE WEAK SHORT WAVE WILL BRING SOME HIGH CLOUDS
TO AR AND LIMIT FOG FORMATION. ISOLATED DENSE WILL BE POSSIBLE IN
RIVER VALLEYS AND ISOLATED NORMAL LOCATIONS BUT WILL NO BE
WIDESPREAD ENOUGH TO DELINEATE IN THE FORECAST. LOWS TONIGHT
MOSTLY IN THE 50S. OVER THE WEEKEND...THE UPPER RIDGE BUILDS IN
OVER THE REGION AS THE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE STARTS OVER AR THEN
SHIFTS MORE TO THE SE AND A S TO SW WIND FLOW RETURNS TO AR. HIGHS
WILL REACH THE 80S...WITH LOWS IN THE 50S TO SOME 60S. PATCHY FOG
WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE IN SPOTS. ON MONDAY THE UPPER RIDGE DOES
MOVE EAST AS SHORT WAVE ENERGY BEGINS TO LIFT TOWARD AR. A FRONTAL
BOUNDARY ALSO APPROACHES THE REGION...AND CHANCES OF CONVECTION
ARE BACK IN THE FORECAST FOR MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY.

LONG TERM...TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY

NEW MODEL RUNS CONTINUE TO GENERATE A LITTLE MORE QPF ALONG A SLOW
MOVING FRONTAL BOUNDARY THAT COMES IN EARLY IN THE PERIOD AND STICKS
AROUND THROUGH WEDNESDAY. MEDIUM RANGE MODELS REMAIN IN DECENT
ENOUGH AGREEMENT THAT A BLEND OF SOLUTIONS WILL BE USED IN SPITE OF
THE NEW EURO BLOWING THE FRONT MOVING THROUGH FASTER. SINCE THIS IS
THE FIRST RUN SHOWING THIS INCREASED SPEED...WILL LEAN SLIGHTLY
TOWARDS THE GFS FOR NOW.

PERIOD STARTS WITH UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OFF THE EAST
COAST OF FLORIDA WITH AN OPEN TROUGH IN THE PROCESS OF CLOSING OFF
OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST. ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW WILL BE LOCATED OVER
THE UPPER MICHIGAN PENINSULA WITH ATTENDANT COLD FRONT ENTERING THE
FAR NORTHWEST CORNER OF THE STATE.

FRONT WILL SAG SLOWLY TO THE SOUTH AS IT RUNS INTO THE FLORIDA HIGH.
MODELS NOW SHOWING DECENT ENOUGH MOISTURE RETURN THAT POPS WILL NEED
TO BE BUMPED INTO THE CHANCE CATEGORY JUST ABOUT EVERYWHERE.
PRECIPITATION CHANCES MAY BE INCREASED SOMEWHAT AS A WEAK WAVE MOVES
TO THE NORTH BUT A WAIT AND SEE APPROACH WILL BE TAKEN HERE. THE
BOUNDARY FINALLY CLEARS THE STATE LATE WEDNESDAY OR EARLY THURSDAY
TAKING PRECIP CHANCES WITH IT.

TEMPERATURES STILL EXPECTED TO BE ABOVE NORMAL ON TUESDAY IN ADVANCE
OF THE FRONT WITH READINGS CLOSER TO NORMAL DAYS SIX AND SEVEN. MEX
GUIDANCE LOOK REASONABLE AND WILL GENERALLY BE ACCEPTED.
&&

.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&

$$


AVIATION...58






000
FXUS64 KLZK 241901
AFDLZK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
201 PM CDT FRI OCT 24 2014

.DISCUSSION...

MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS IN THIS CYCLE ARE FOG POTENTIAL TONIGHT.
THEN A WARMING TREND OVER THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. THEN A
CHANCE OF CONVECTION LATE MONDAY TO MID WEEK WITH AN UPPER AND
SURFACE SYSTEM TO AFFECT AR.

MORNING FOG DID DISSIPATE BY NOON...AND WILL AGAIN INCLUDE SOME
TONIGHT WITH SIMILAR WEATHER CONDITIONS EXPECTED. THE UPPER
TROUGH HAS MOVED OUT OF THE REGION TO THE EAST...WHILE
UPSTREAM...A SHORT WAVE WITH SOME MOISTURE WAS OVER THE CENTRAL
PLAINS. HAVE SEEN SOME HIGH CLOUDS STREAMING SE INTO AR THIS
AFTERNOON. ATMOSPHERE REMAINS DRY WITH 12Z KLZK SOUNDING HAVING A
PRECIP WATER VALUE OF 0.63 INCHES...WITH ONLY MOISTURE IN LOWER 5K
FEET. QUITE DRY ALOFT. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE IS OVER AR AT THIS
TIME...WITH DEW POINT TEMPS IN THE LOWER 50S. TEMPS WERE WARMING
TODAY INTO THE 60S AND MAINLY 70S.

&&

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT

MOSTLY CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES ARE EXPECTED TONIGHT WITH
PATCHY FOG AGAIN. THE WEAK SHORT WAVE WILL BRING SOME HIGH CLOUDS
TO AR AND LIMIT FOG FORMATION. ISOLATED DENSE WILL BE POSSIBLE IN
RIVER VALLEYS AND ISOLATED NORMAL LOCATIONS BUT WILL NO BE
WIDESPREAD ENOUGH TO DELINEATE IN THE FORECAST. LOWS TONIGHT
MOSTLY IN THE 50S. OVER THE WEEKEND...THE UPPER RIDGE BUILDS IN
OVER THE REGION AS THE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE STARTS OVER AR THEN
SHIFTS MORE TO THE SE AND A S TO SW WIND FLOW RETURNS TO AR. HIGHS
WILL REACH THE 80S...WITH LOWS IN THE 50S TO SOME 60S. PATCHY FOG
WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE IN SPOTS. ON MONDAY THE UPPER RIDGE DOES
MOVE EAST AS SHORT WAVE ENERGY BEGINS TO LIFT TOWARD AR. A FRONTAL
BOUNDARY ALSO APPROACHES THE REGION...AND CHANCES OF CONVECTION
ARE BACK IN THE FORECAST FOR MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM...TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY

NEW MODEL RUNS CONTINUE TO GENERATE A LITTLE MORE QPF ALONG A SLOW
MOVING FRONTAL BOUNDARY THAT COMES IN EARLY IN THE PERIOD AND STICKS
AROUND THROUGH WEDNESDAY. MEDIUM RANGE MODELS REMAIN IN DECENT
ENOUGH AGREEMENT THAT A BLEND OF SOLUTIONS WILL BE USED IN SPITE OF
THE NEW EURO BLOWING THE FRONT MOVING THROUGH FASTER. SINCE THIS IS
THE FIRST RUN SHOWING THIS INCREASED SPEED...WILL LEAN SLIGHTLY
TOWARDS THE GFS FOR NOW.

PERIOD STARTS WITH UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OFF THE EAST
COAST OF FLORIDA WITH AN OPEN TROUGH IN THE PROCESS OF CLOSING OFF
OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST. ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW WILL BE LOCATED OVER
THE UPPER MICHIGAN PENINSULA WITH ATTENDANT COLD FRONT ENTERING THE
FAR NORTHWEST CORNER OF THE STATE.

FRONT WILL SAG SLOWLY TO THE SOUTH AS IT RUNS INTO THE FLORIDA HIGH.
MODELS NOW SHOWING DECENT ENOUGH MOISTURE RETURN THAT POPS WILL NEED
TO BE BUMPED INTO THE CHANCE CATEGORY JUST ABOUT EVERYWHERE.
PRECIPITATION CHANCES MAY BE INCREASED SOMEWHAT AS A WEAK WAVE MOVES
TO THE NORTH BUT A WAIT AND SEE APPROACH WILL BE TAKEN HERE. THE
BOUNDARY FINALLY CLEARS THE STATE LATE WEDNESDAY OR EARLY THURSDAY
TAKING PRECIP CHANCES WITH IT.

TEMPERATURES STILL EXPECTED TO BE ABOVE NORMAL ON TUESDAY IN ADVANCE
OF THE FRONT WITH READINGS CLOSER TO NORMAL DAYS SIX AND SEVEN. MEX
GUIDANCE LOOK REASONABLE AND WILL GENERALLY BE ACCEPTED.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BATESVILLE AR     56  82  57  84 /   0   0   0   0
CAMDEN AR         52  83  56  86 /   0   0   0   0
HARRISON AR       56  83  58  84 /   0   0   0   0
HOT SPRINGS AR    55  82  58  85 /   0   0   0   0
LITTLE ROCK   AR  55  83  58  85 /   0   0   0   0
MONTICELLO AR     53  83  57  86 /   0   0   0   0
MOUNT IDA AR      52  82  55  84 /   0   0   0   0
MOUNTAIN HOME AR  55  84  55  85 /   0   0   0   0
NEWPORT AR        54  83  57  84 /   0   0   0   0
PINE BLUFF AR     52  82  57  85 /   0   0   0   0
RUSSELLVILLE AR   52  83  55  85 /   0   0   0   0
SEARCY AR         51  82  55  85 /   0   0   0   0
STUTTGART AR      53  83  58  85 /   0   0   0   0
&&

.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...59 / LONG TERM...56






000
FXUS64 KLZK 241815
AFDLZK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
115 PM CDT FRI OCT 24 2014

.AVIATION...
A BATCH OF LOW CLOUDS WILL BRING BRIEF BROKEN TO OVERCAST
CONDITIONS TO THE NORTH FOR A FEW HOURS THIS AFTERNOON. OTHERWISE
ONLY HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD AS UPPER
LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN. WIDESPREAD VFR CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED EXCEPT FOR A LITTLE PATCHY FOG AROUND SUNRISE AT A FEW
TERMINALS. WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1010 AM CDT FRI OCT 24 2014/

DISCUSSION...

OVERALL FORECAST ON TRACK. MORNING FOG IS DISSIPATING AND WILL TAKE
ALL OUT WITH UPDATE. THE UPPER TROUGH HAS MOVED OUT OF THE REGION
AND TO THE EAST...WHILE UPSTREAM...A SHORT WAVE WITH SOME MOISTURE
WAS OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS. WILL ONLY SEE SOME HIGH CLOUDS INTO AR
FROM THIS SYSTEM WITH OVERALL DRY ATMOSPHERE. 12Z KLZK SOUNDING HAD
A PRECIP WATER VALUE OF 0.63 INCHES...WITH ONLY MOISTURE IN LOWER 5K
FEET. QUITE DRY ALOFT. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE IS OVER AR AT THIS
TIME...WITH DEW POINT TEMPS IN THE LOWER 50S...WHILE TEMPS WERE ALSO
IN THE 50S. WINDS WERE LIGHT AND VARIABLE. OVERALL WILL SEE MOSTLY
SUNNY CONDITIONS TODAY WITH ONLY SOME HIGH CLOUDS STREAMING OVER THE
STATE WITH THE UPPER NW FLOW. LATE MORNING UPDATE WILL ONLY FINE
TUNE A FEW ELEMENTS WITH NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES EXPECTED. (59)

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 632 AM CDT FRI OCT 24 2014/

AVIATION...

HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD OVER ARKANSAS TODAY. PATCHY
FOG IS EXPECTED THIS MORNING WITH MVFR AND IFR CONDITIONS. FOG
WILL BURN OFF BY MID MORNING. HIGH CLOUDS WILL INCREASE FROM THE
NORTH. SCATTERED CUMULUS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP. VFR CONDITIONS
ARE EXPECTED FROM MID MORNING THROUGH TONIGHT IN MOST AREAS.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 337 AM CDT FRI OCT 24 2014/

SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT

THE UPR TROF THAT BROUGHT CLOUDS AND A FEW SHOWERS TO AR ON THU HAD
SHIFTED E OF THE STATE EARLY THIS MRNG. IN ITS WAKE...MOSTLY CLR
SKIES WERE NOTED IN MOST AREAS...ALONG WITH SOME PTCHY FOG. EARLY
MRNG TEMPS RANGED FM THE MID 40S TO THE LOWER 50S.

HIGH PRES RDG SITUATED OVR THE NATURAL STATE THIS MRNG WL BEGIN TO
SHIFT SEWD...WITH AN INCRSG S/SWLY SFC WIND FLOW EXPECTED IN THE
COMING DAYS. THIS WL ALSO ALLOW FOR A WARMING TREND TO COMMENCE ACRS
THE FA TODAY AND CONT OVR THE WEEKEND AS HIGH PRES ALOFT BLDS INTO
THE MID SOUTH. THE WARMEST PD WL BE SAT AND SUN AS UPR HEIGHTS INCRS
ACRS THE MID SOUTH...WITH HIGH TEMPS ABT 10 TO 15 DEGREES ABV NORMAL.

THE UPR RDG WL BEGIN TO SHIFT EWD AWAY FM THE REGION HEADING INTO
THE NEW WORK WEEK. THIS WL ALLOW A NEW CDFNT TO APCH AR FM THE NW.
THE FNT WL BE CLOSE ENOUGH TO NWRN AR MON NGT FOR SMALL CHCS OF
SHRA/TSRA. BETTER RAIN CHCS WL OCCUR BEYOND THIS FCST PD. SOME OF
THE MODELS ARE INDCG THAT THE FNT MAY STALL OUT ACRS THE AREA EARLY
NEXT WEEK.

LONG TERM...TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY

AN UPPER TROUGH WILL BE MOVING INTO THE MIDWEST AND MISSISSIPPI
RIVER VALLEY TUESDAY TO BEGIN THE LONG TERM PERIOD WITH AN UPPER
RIDGE OVER THE EAST COAST. THE TROUGH WILL MOVE THROUGH THE GREAT
LAKES TUESDAY NIGHT AND TO THE EAST COAST BY WEDNESDAY. ZONAL FLOW
WILL SETTLE OVER ARKANSAS WEDNESDAY. AN UPPER RIDGE WILL THEN BUILD
FROM THE ROCKIES INTO THE PLAINS THURSDAY.

A COLD FRONT WILL BE IN NORTHWEST ARKANSAS BY TUESDAY MORNING. THIS
FRONT WILL SLOWLY MOVE SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE STATE WITH SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THE FRONT TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. SHOWERS WILL
END WEDNESDAY NIGHT IN SOUTHEAST ARKANSAS. WILL KEEP THURSDAY DRY AT
THIS TIME...THOUGH GFS AND ECMWF MODELS DIFFER CONSIDERABLY. GFS IS
DRIER THAN THE ECMWF. TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE
NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BATESVILLE AR     75  56  82  57 /   0   0   0   0
CAMDEN AR         78  52  83  56 /   0   0   0   0
HARRISON AR       77  56  83  58 /   0   0   0   0
HOT SPRINGS AR    75  55  82  58 /   0   0   0   0
LITTLE ROCK   AR  75  55  83  58 /   0   0   0   0
MONTICELLO AR     76  53  83  57 /   0   0   0   0
MOUNT IDA AR      77  52  82  55 /   0   0   0   0
MOUNTAIN HOME AR  76  55  84  55 /   0   0   0   0
NEWPORT AR        75  54  83  57 /   0   0   0   0
PINE BLUFF AR     75  52  82  57 /   0   0   0   0
RUSSELLVILLE AR   77  52  83  55 /   0   0   0   0
SEARCY AR         75  51  82  55 /   0   0   0   0
STUTTGART AR      75  53  83  58 /   0   0   0   0
&&

.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&

$$


AVIATION...56







000
FXUS64 KLZK 241513 AAA
AFDLZK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
1010 AM CDT FRI OCT 24 2014

.DISCUSSION...

OVERALL FORECAST ON TRACK. MORNING FOG IS DISSIPATING AND WILL TAKE
ALL OUT WITH UPDATE. THE UPPER TROUGH HAS MOVED OUT OF THE REGION
AND TO THE EAST...WHILE UPSTREAM...A SHORT WAVE WITH SOME MOISTURE
WAS OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS. WILL ONLY SEE SOME HIGH CLOUDS INTO AR
FROM THIS SYSTEM WITH OVERALL DRY ATMOSPHERE. 12Z KLZK SOUNDING HAD
A PRECIP WATER VALUE OF 0.63 INCHES...WITH ONLY MOISTURE IN LOWER 5K
FEET. QUITE DRY ALOFT. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE IS OVER AR AT THIS
TIME...WITH DEW POINT TEMPS IN THE LOWER 50S...WHILE TEMPS WERE ALSO
IN THE 50S. WINDS WERE LIGHT AND VARIABLE. OVERALL WILL SEE MOSTLY
SUNNY CONDITIONS TODAY WITH ONLY SOME HIGH CLOUDS STREAMING OVER THE
STATE WITH THE UPPER NW FLOW. LATE MORNING UPDATE WILL ONLY FINE
TUNE A FEW ELEMENTS WITH NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES EXPECTED. (59)

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 632 AM CDT FRI OCT 24 2014/

.AVIATION...

HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD OVER ARKANSAS TODAY. PATCHY
FOG IS EXPECTED THIS MORNING WITH MVFR AND IFR CONDITIONS. FOG
WILL BURN OFF BY MID MORNING. HIGH CLOUDS WILL INCREASE FROM THE
NORTH. SCATTERED CUMULUS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP. VFR CONDITIONS
ARE EXPECTED FROM MID MORNING THROUGH TONIGHT IN MOST AREAS.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 337 AM CDT FRI OCT 24 2014/

SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT

THE UPR TROF THAT BROUGHT CLOUDS AND A FEW SHOWERS TO AR ON THU HAD
SHIFTED E OF THE STATE EARLY THIS MRNG. IN ITS WAKE...MOSTLY CLR
SKIES WERE NOTED IN MOST AREAS...ALONG WITH SOME PTCHY FOG. EARLY
MRNG TEMPS RANGED FM THE MID 40S TO THE LOWER 50S.

HIGH PRES RDG SITUATED OVR THE NATURAL STATE THIS MRNG WL BEGIN TO
SHIFT SEWD...WITH AN INCRSG S/SWLY SFC WIND FLOW EXPECTED IN THE
COMING DAYS. THIS WL ALSO ALLOW FOR A WARMING TREND TO COMMENCE ACRS
THE FA TODAY AND CONT OVR THE WEEKEND AS HIGH PRES ALOFT BLDS INTO
THE MID SOUTH. THE WARMEST PD WL BE SAT AND SUN AS UPR HEIGHTS INCRS
ACRS THE MID SOUTH...WITH HIGH TEMPS ABT 10 TO 15 DEGREES ABV NORMAL.

THE UPR RDG WL BEGIN TO SHIFT EWD AWAY FM THE REGION HEADING INTO
THE NEW WORK WEEK. THIS WL ALLOW A NEW CDFNT TO APCH AR FM THE NW.
THE FNT WL BE CLOSE ENOUGH TO NWRN AR MON NGT FOR SMALL CHCS OF
SHRA/TSRA. BETTER RAIN CHCS WL OCCUR BEYOND THIS FCST PD. SOME OF
THE MODELS ARE INDCG THAT THE FNT MAY STALL OUT ACRS THE AREA EARLY
NEXT WEEK.

LONG TERM...TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY

AN UPPER TROUGH WILL BE MOVING INTO THE MIDWEST AND MISSISSIPPI
RIVER VALLEY TUESDAY TO BEGIN THE LONG TERM PERIOD WITH AN UPPER
RIDGE OVER THE EAST COAST. THE TROUGH WILL MOVE THROUGH THE GREAT
LAKES TUESDAY NIGHT AND TO THE EAST COAST BY WEDNESDAY. ZONAL FLOW
WILL SETTLE OVER ARKANSAS WEDNESDAY. AN UPPER RIDGE WILL THEN BUILD
FROM THE ROCKIES INTO THE PLAINS THURSDAY.

A COLD FRONT WILL BE IN NORTHWEST ARKANSAS BY TUESDAY MORNING. THIS
FRONT WILL SLOWLY MOVE SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE STATE WITH SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THE FRONT TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. SHOWERS WILL
END WEDNESDAY NIGHT IN SOUTHEAST ARKANSAS. WILL KEEP THURSDAY DRY AT
THIS TIME...THOUGH GFS AND ECMWF MODELS DIFFER CONSIDERABLY. GFS IS
DRIER THAN THE ECMWF. TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE
NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BATESVILLE AR     75  56  83  56 /   0   0   0   0
CAMDEN AR         78  51  83  56 /   0   0   0   0
HARRISON AR       77  56  83  57 /   0   0   0   0
HOT SPRINGS AR    75  54  82  58 /   0   0   0   0
LITTLE ROCK   AR  76  55  84  58 /   0   0   0   0
MONTICELLO AR     76  53  83  58 /   0   0   0   0
MOUNT IDA AR      77  52  83  54 /   0   0   0   0
MOUNTAIN HOME AR  76  55  84  55 /   0   0   0   0
NEWPORT AR        75  54  83  57 /   0   0   0   0
PINE BLUFF AR     75  52  82  57 /   0   0   0   0
RUSSELLVILLE AR   77  52  84  54 /   0   0   0   0
SEARCY AR         75  51  82  54 /   0   0   0   0
STUTTGART AR      76  53  83  58 /   0   0   0   0
&&

.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&

$$


AVIATION...51









000
FXUS64 KLZK 241132
AFDLZK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
632 AM CDT FRI OCT 24 2014

.AVIATION...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD OVER ARKANSAS TODAY. PATCHY
FOG IS EXPECTED THIS MORNING WITH MVFR AND IFR CONDITIONS. FOG
WILL BURN OFF BY MID MORNING. HIGH CLOUDS WILL INCREASE FROM THE
NORTH. SCATTERED CUMULUS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP. VFR CONDITIONS
ARE EXPECTED FROM MID MORNING THROUGH TONIGHT IN MOST AREAS.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 337 AM CDT FRI OCT 24 2014/

SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT

THE UPR TROF THAT BROUGHT CLOUDS AND A FEW SHOWERS TO AR ON THU HAD
SHIFTED E OF THE STATE EARLY THIS MRNG. IN ITS WAKE...MOSTLY CLR
SKIES WERE NOTED IN MOST AREAS...ALONG WITH SOME PTCHY FOG. EARLY
MRNG TEMPS RANGED FM THE MID 40S TO THE LOWER 50S.

HIGH PRES RDG SITUATED OVR THE NATURAL STATE THIS MRNG WL BEGIN TO
SHIFT SEWD...WITH AN INCRSG S/SWLY SFC WIND FLOW EXPECTED IN THE
COMING DAYS. THIS WL ALSO ALLOW FOR A WARMING TREND TO COMMENCE ACRS
THE FA TODAY AND CONT OVR THE WEEKEND AS HIGH PRES ALOFT BLDS INTO
THE MID SOUTH. THE WARMEST PD WL BE SAT AND SUN AS UPR HEIGHTS INCRS
ACRS THE MID SOUTH...WITH HIGH TEMPS ABT 10 TO 15 DEGREES ABV NORMAL.

THE UPR RDG WL BEGIN TO SHIFT EWD AWAY FM THE REGION HEADING INTO
THE NEW WORK WEEK. THIS WL ALLOW A NEW CDFNT TO APCH AR FM THE NW.
THE FNT WL BE CLOSE ENOUGH TO NWRN AR MON NGT FOR SMALL CHCS OF
SHRA/TSRA. BETTER RAIN CHCS WL OCCUR BEYOND THIS FCST PD. SOME OF
THE MODELS ARE INDCG THAT THE FNT MAY STALL OUT ACRS THE AREA EARLY
NEXT WEEK.

LONG TERM...TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY

AN UPPER TROUGH WILL BE MOVING INTO THE MIDWEST AND MISSISSIPPI
RIVER VALLEY TUESDAY TO BEGIN THE LONG TERM PERIOD WITH AN UPPER
RIDGE OVER THE EAST COAST. THE TROUGH WILL MOVE THROUGH THE GREAT
LAKES TUESDAY NIGHT AND TO THE EAST COAST BY WEDNESDAY. ZONAL FLOW
WILL SETTLE OVER ARKANSAS WEDNESDAY. AN UPPER RIDGE WILL THEN BUILD
FROM THE ROCKIES INTO THE PLAINS THURSDAY.

A COLD FRONT WILL BE IN NORTHWEST ARKANSAS BY TUESDAY MORNING. THIS
FRONT WILL SLOWLY MOVE SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE STATE WITH SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THE FRONT TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. SHOWERS WILL
END WEDNESDAY NIGHT IN SOUTHEAST ARKANSAS. WILL KEEP THURSDAY DRY AT
THIS TIME...THOUGH GFS AND ECMWF MODELS DIFFER CONSIDERABLY. GFS IS
DRIER THAN THE ECMWF. TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE
NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BATESVILLE AR     75  56  83  56 /   0   0   0   0
CAMDEN AR         78  51  83  56 /   0   0   0   0
HARRISON AR       77  56  83  57 /   0   0   0   0
HOT SPRINGS AR    75  54  82  58 /   0   0   0   0
LITTLE ROCK   AR  76  55  84  58 /   0   0   0   0
MONTICELLO AR     76  53  83  58 /   0   0   0   0
MOUNT IDA AR      77  52  83  54 /   0   0   0   0
MOUNTAIN HOME AR  76  55  84  55 /   0   0   0   0
NEWPORT AR        75  54  83  57 /   0   0   0   0
PINE BLUFF AR     75  52  82  57 /   0   0   0   0
RUSSELLVILLE AR   77  52  84  54 /   0   0   0   0
SEARCY AR         75  51  82  54 /   0   0   0   0
STUTTGART AR      76  53  83  58 /   0   0   0   0
&&

.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&

$$


AVIATION...51






000
FXUS64 KLZK 240837
AFDLZK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
337 AM CDT FRI OCT 24 2014

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT

THE UPR TROF THAT BROUGHT CLOUDS AND A FEW SHOWERS TO AR ON THU HAD
SHIFTED E OF THE STATE EARLY THIS MRNG. IN ITS WAKE...MOSTLY CLR
SKIES WERE NOTED IN MOST AREAS...ALONG WITH SOME PTCHY FOG. EARLY
MRNG TEMPS RANGED FM THE MID 40S TO THE LOWER 50S.

HIGH PRES RDG SITUATED OVR THE NATURAL STATE THIS MRNG WL BEGIN TO
SHIFT SEWD...WITH AN INCRSG S/SWLY SFC WIND FLOW EXPECTED IN THE
COMING DAYS. THIS WL ALSO ALLOW FOR A WARMING TREND TO COMMENCE ACRS
THE FA TODAY AND CONT OVR THE WEEKEND AS HIGH PRES ALOFT BLDS INTO
THE MID SOUTH. THE WARMEST PD WL BE SAT AND SUN AS UPR HEIGHTS INCRS
ACRS THE MID SOUTH...WITH HIGH TEMPS ABT 10 TO 15 DEGREES ABV NORMAL.

THE UPR RDG WL BEGIN TO SHIFT EWD AWAY FM THE REGION HEADING INTO
THE NEW WORK WEEK. THIS WL ALLOW A NEW CDFNT TO APCH AR FM THE NW.
THE FNT WL BE CLOSE ENOUGH TO NWRN AR MON NGT FOR SMALL CHCS OF
SHRA/TSRA. BETTER RAIN CHCS WL OCCUR BEYOND THIS FCST PD. SOME OF
THE MODELS ARE INDCG THAT THE FNT MAY STALL OUT ACRS THE AREA EARLY
NEXT WEEK.
&&

.LONG TERM...TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY

AN UPPER TROUGH WILL BE MOVING INTO THE MIDWEST AND MISSISSIPPI
RIVER VALLEY TUESDAY TO BEGIN THE LONG TERM PERIOD WITH AN UPPER
RIDGE OVER THE EAST COAST. THE TROUGH WILL MOVE THROUGH THE GREAT
LAKES TUESDAY NIGHT AND TO THE EAST COAST BY WEDNESDAY. ZONAL FLOW
WILL SETTLE OVER ARKANSAS WEDNESDAY. AN UPPER RIDGE WILL THEN BUILD
FROM THE ROCKIES INTO THE PLAINS THURSDAY.

A COLD FRONT WILL BE IN NORTHWEST ARKANSAS BY TUESDAY MORNING. THIS
FRONT WILL SLOWLY MOVE SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE STATE WITH SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THE FRONT TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. SHOWERS WILL
END WEDNESDAY NIGHT IN SOUTHEAST ARKANSAS. WILL KEEP THURSDAY DRY AT
THIS TIME...THOUGH GFS AND ECMWF MODELS DIFFER CONSIDERABLY. GFS IS
DRIER THAN THE ECMWF. TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE
NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD.
&&

.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...44 / LONG TERM...51






000
FXUS64 KLZK 240550
AFDLZK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
1250 AM CDT FRI OCT 24 2014

.AVIATION...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE BUILDING INTO THE STATE TONIGHT AND FRIDAY.
MID AND HIGH CLOUDS ARE MOVING OUT OF THE AREA IN THE SOUTHEAST
AND EAST. LOW CLOUDS AT BPK SHOULD MOVE SOUTHEAST OF THE SITE IN
THE NEXT HOUR. MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE AREA THE
REST OF THE NIGHT. FOG IS EXPECTED IN THE SOUTHWEST THIS MORNING.
CUMULUS WILL BE SCATTERED AT BEST DURING THE DAY FRIDAY. VFR
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED...AND SOME IFR IN THE SOUTHWEST WITH THE
FOG.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 600 PM CDT THU OCT 23 2014/

AVIATION...
WITH THE EXCEPTION OF PATCHY MVFR FOG IN THE EARLY MORNING
HOURS...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD. TAFS OUT
SHORTLY.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 224 PM CDT THU OCT 23 2014/

DISCUSSION...

MAIN CONCERNS THIS FORECAST CYCLE ARE FIRST PERIOD RAIN CHANCES.
THEN A TEMPERATURE FORECAST WITH A WARM UP FRIDAY AND OVER THE
WEEKEND WITH THE UPPER HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN OVER THE REGION.
THEN THE NEXT CHANCE OF RAIN IS EXPECTED TUESDAY NEXT WEEK.

THE LIGHT CONVECTION...MAINLY RAIN OR SHOWERS...HAS CONTINUED TO
MOVE EAST OVER WESTERN AR THIS AFTERNOON. SPOTTY LOCATIONS HAVE
REPORTED RAIN...WHILE MUCH HAS NOT BEEN REACHING THE GROUND.
ATMOSPHERE WAS QUITE DRY WITH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE AT THE
SURFACE AND DEW POINT TEMPS IN THE MID 40S EAST TO MID 50S
WEST...WHILE 12Z KLZK SOUNDING HAD A PRECIP WATER VALUE OF 0.33
INCHES. KSGF WAS MUCH HIGHER WITH A ONE INCH PRECIP WATER. HENCE
HAVE ONLY KEPT A SLIGHT CHANCE TO LOW CHANCE OF RAIN OVER WESTERN
TO NORTHERN AR. MOST OF MOISTURE HAS GONE TO CLOUD FORMATION. THIS
AFTERNOON TEMPS WERE FROM THE MID 50S TO MID 60S ACROSS THE STATE.
THE UPPER TROUGH HAD ALSO MOVED FROM WESTERN AR TO CENTRAL AR.

SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT

THE UPPER TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO MOVE EAST THIS EVENING
AND NIGHT...AND TAKE THE RAIN OUT OF AR...THEN GRADUALLY THIN
CLOUDS OVERNIGHT. WILL KEEP A SLIGHT TO LOW CHANCE OF RAIN IN
THE FORECAST FOR THE EVENING PERIOD...THEN END IT PAST MIDNIGHT.
CLOUDS WILL BE SLOW TO THIN...SO PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES
WILL BE SEE TONIGHT. LOWS WILL BE IN THE 40S TO LOWER 50S STATE
WIDE. ON FRIDAY AND INTO THE WEEKEND...THE UPPER RIDGE BUILDS INTO
THE REGION...KEEPING WEATHER CONDITIONS DRY AND WARMS TEMPS UP.
HIGHS WILL REACH THE 70S ON FRIDAY...THEN UPPER 70S TO MANY 80S
FOR SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. LOWS WILL BE IN THE 50S.

LONG TERM...MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...

MODELS HAVE CONTINUED THEIR TREND OF LATE BY MAKING THE NEXT
SYSTEM A LITTLER MORE DYNAMIC WITH EACH RUN. LATEST SOLUTIONS ARE
MOVING A FRONT THROUGH THE STATE BUT ARE NOW HOLDING THE BOUNDARY
UP OVER THE SOUTH FOR CONTINUING PRECIP CHANCES. WILL CONTINUE TO
BLEND THE DIFFERENCES BETWEEN THE MODELS AT THIS TIME.

PERIOD INITIATES WITH THE RIDGE RESPONSIBLE FOR THE SPLENDID WEEKEND
SHUNTED OFF TO THE SOUTHEAST PART OF THE NATION AS AN UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH APPROACHES FROM THE NORTHERN ROCKIES. LEE SIDE CYCLOGENESIS
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP WITH THE LOW RACING OFF TO THE NORTHEAST. SYSTEM
WILL DRAG A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE STATE ON TUESDAY BUT MOISTURE
RETURN WILL ONLY WARRANT MINIMAL POPS AT THIS TIME. FRONT DOES LOOK
TO STALL OVER THE SOUTH WITH THE GFS A LITTLE MORE AGGRESSIVE WITH
POPS VERSUS THE ECMWF BUT REGARDLESS...WIDESPREAD OR HEAVY RAIN IS
NOT EXPECTED.

MONDAY WILL BE THE WARMEST DAY IN THE PERIOD WITH COOLER CONDITIONS
EXPECTED FOR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY WITH MORE CLOUDS AND SCATTERED
PRECIPITATION AROUND. OVERALL...TEMPERATURES STILL EXPECTED TO RUN
ABOVE NORMAL. MAV/MEX NUMBERS LOOK REASONABLE.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BATESVILLE AR     76  56  84  55 /   0   0   0   0
CAMDEN AR         76  52  83  56 /   0   0   0   0
HARRISON AR       76  57  84  57 /   0   0   0   0
HOT SPRINGS AR    74  55  82  58 /   0   0   0   0
LITTLE ROCK   AR  76  55  84  59 /   0   0   0   0
MONTICELLO AR     77  53  84  58 /   0   0   0   0
MOUNT IDA AR      77  52  84  54 /   0   0   0   0
MOUNTAIN HOME AR  76  56  85  55 /   0   0   0   0
NEWPORT AR        75  54  83  57 /   0   0   0   0
PINE BLUFF AR     75  52  82  57 /   0   0   0   0
RUSSELLVILLE AR   77  52  85  54 /   0   0   0   0
SEARCY AR         75  51  82  54 /   0   0   0   0
STUTTGART AR      76  54  83  58 /   0   0   0   0
&&

.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&

$$


AVIATION...51






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