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000
FXUS64 KLZK 272326 AAA
AFDLZK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
526 PM CST THU NOV 27 2014

.DISCUSSION...

UPDATED TO INCLUDE THE 00Z AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW...

&&

.AVIATION...

SFC HIGH PRESSURE WILL SHIFT EAST TONIGHT INTO FRI...WITH SRLY
WINDS RETURNING TO THE STATE. EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS TO DOMINATE
THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 239 PM CST THU NOV 27 2014/

DISCUSSION...

MAIN CONCERNS THIS FORECAST CYCLE ARE INITIALLY A TEMPERATURE
FORECAST AS THEY START COLD...THEN WARM NICELY OVER THE WEEKEND.
THEN THE NEXT SIGNIFICANT CHANCES OF RAIN WILL POSSIBLY START
SATURDAY TO MONDAY WITH THE NEXT SYSTEM. DRYING TUESDAY TO MID
WEEK WITH COOLER TEMPS.

IT HAS BEEN A MOSTLY SUNNY BUT COOL TEMP DAY OVER AR...WITH THE
STRATUS THINNING OVER NE TO E AR...WHILE TEMPS WERE IN THE
40S...AROUND 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. THE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
SYSTEM OVER THE REGION HAS FILTERED COOLER TEMPS AND A QUITE DRY
CONDITIONS TO AR. SURFACE DEW POINT TEMPS WERE IN THE 20S...WHILE
12Z KLZK SOUNDING HAD ONLY A PRECIP WATER VALUE OF 0.23 INCHES...
WITH A NW FLOW. WINDS STARTED A BIT ELEVATED TODAY WITH THE
SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT...BUT HAVE GENERALLY BEEN 15 MPH OR
LESS. THE UPPER TROUGH HAS PUSHED OFF TO THE EASTERN SEABOARD...
WHILE UPPER NW FLOW WAS SET UP INTO THE REGION WITH THE UPPER HIGH
PRESSURE RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN U.S.

SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY

CLEAR AND COLD TONIGHT WITH LIGHT WINDS AND LOWS FROM THE 20S TO
THE LOWER 30S. ON FRIDAY THE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE QUICKLY MOVES
EAST AND A SOUTH WIND FLOW RETURNS TO AR. TEMPS WILL REBOUND TO
NORMAL VALUES. INTO THE WEEKEND...THE SOUTH WIND FLOW CONTINUES
AND MOISTURE LEVELS WILL COME UP. THE UPPER PATTERN BECOMES MORE
ZONAL AND HELPS WARM TEMPS...WHILE THROUGH SATURDAY...VERY LITTLE
UPPER SHORT WAVE ENERGY IS SEEN. A FEW SPOTTY SHOWERS MAY BE SEEN
SATURDAY AFTERNOON...BUT FACTORS ARE SO WEAK HAVE LEFT SATURDAY
DRY. SO JUST SOME INCREASING CLOUDS ON SATURDAY. LATER SATURDAY
NIGHT AND SUNDAY...ADDITIONAL SHORT WAVE ENERGY MAKES IT TO AR AND
SLIGHT CHANCES ARE IN THE FORECAST...ESPECIALLY FROM SOUTHERN AR
TO CENTRAL. TEMPS WILL BE WELL ABOVE NORMAL ON SUNDAY.

LONG TERM...MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY

A STRONG FRONT WILL LIKELY BE SITUATED IN CENTRAL ARKANSAS COME
MONDAY MORNING...WITH ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE PUSHING SOUTH THROUGH THE
PLAINS AND POSSIBLY NOSING INTO NRN ARKANSAS BY DAYBREAK. RESULTING
TEMPERATURE TRENDS THAT DAY WILL BE DIFFICULT TO PIN DOWN...WITH
READINGS IN THE NORTH LIKELY NOT MOVING MUCH AFTER THE 3-5AM TIME
FRAME...AND HOLDING STEADY OR FALL ACROSS CENTRAL ARKANSAS FROM MID
MORNING ONWARD AS THE COLD AIR FILTERS IN. WITH LIGHT PRECIPITATION
STILL ONGOING MONDAY MORNING...AND NEAR-FREEZING AIR MOVING IN...IT
APPEARS THERE WILL BE AT LEAST A DECENT CHANCE OF SOME WINTRY
PRECIPITATION IN THE NORTHWEST EARLY ON MONDAY. HOWEVER...GIVEN A
DIFFICULT-TO-FORECAST NON DIURNAL TEMPERATURE TREND AND AN UNCERTAIN
ARRIVAL TIME OF ARCTIC AIR...WILL LEAVE MENTION OF ANY WINTRY PRECIP
OUT OF THE FORECAST FOR NOW.

MODELS DIVERGE ON THE FORECAST BEYOND MONDAY...WITH SOME GUIDANCE
SHOWING DRY CONDITIONS TO FINISH OUT THE PERIOD AND OTHER SHOWING
RAIN CHANCES RETURNING TO THE FORECAST WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO
THURSDAY. KEPT WITH A DRY FORECAST AS MOST GUIDANCE POINTS THAT
DIRECTION. WILL ALSO SEE A RETURN TO MORE SEASONAL TEMPERATURES BY
WEDNESDAY...WITH HIGHS IN THE 50S AND LOWS IN THE 30S TO 40S.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BATESVILLE AR     29  54  44  64 /   0   0   0  10
CAMDEN AR         29  60  48  71 /   0   0   0  10
HARRISON AR       30  58  46  65 /   0   0   0   0
HOT SPRINGS AR    31  59  47  67 /   0   0   0  10
LITTLE ROCK   AR  30  58  45  67 /   0   0   0  10
MONTICELLO AR     30  57  47  68 /   0   0   0  10
MOUNT IDA AR      29  58  47  67 /   0   0   0  10
MOUNTAIN HOME AR  29  55  44  65 /   0   0   0  10
NEWPORT AR        29  54  44  63 /   0   0   0  10
PINE BLUFF AR     31  57  45  68 /   0   0   0  10
RUSSELLVILLE AR   30  58  44  67 /   0   0   0  10
SEARCY AR         29  55  42  65 /   0   0   0  10
STUTTGART AR      31  56  44  66 /   0   0   0  10
&&

.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&

$$


AVIATION...62





000
FXUS64 KLZK 272326 AAA
AFDLZK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
526 PM CST THU NOV 27 2014

.DISCUSSION...

UPDATED TO INCLUDE THE 00Z AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW...

&&

.AVIATION...

SFC HIGH PRESSURE WILL SHIFT EAST TONIGHT INTO FRI...WITH SRLY
WINDS RETURNING TO THE STATE. EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS TO DOMINATE
THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 239 PM CST THU NOV 27 2014/

DISCUSSION...

MAIN CONCERNS THIS FORECAST CYCLE ARE INITIALLY A TEMPERATURE
FORECAST AS THEY START COLD...THEN WARM NICELY OVER THE WEEKEND.
THEN THE NEXT SIGNIFICANT CHANCES OF RAIN WILL POSSIBLY START
SATURDAY TO MONDAY WITH THE NEXT SYSTEM. DRYING TUESDAY TO MID
WEEK WITH COOLER TEMPS.

IT HAS BEEN A MOSTLY SUNNY BUT COOL TEMP DAY OVER AR...WITH THE
STRATUS THINNING OVER NE TO E AR...WHILE TEMPS WERE IN THE
40S...AROUND 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. THE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
SYSTEM OVER THE REGION HAS FILTERED COOLER TEMPS AND A QUITE DRY
CONDITIONS TO AR. SURFACE DEW POINT TEMPS WERE IN THE 20S...WHILE
12Z KLZK SOUNDING HAD ONLY A PRECIP WATER VALUE OF 0.23 INCHES...
WITH A NW FLOW. WINDS STARTED A BIT ELEVATED TODAY WITH THE
SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT...BUT HAVE GENERALLY BEEN 15 MPH OR
LESS. THE UPPER TROUGH HAS PUSHED OFF TO THE EASTERN SEABOARD...
WHILE UPPER NW FLOW WAS SET UP INTO THE REGION WITH THE UPPER HIGH
PRESSURE RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN U.S.

SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY

CLEAR AND COLD TONIGHT WITH LIGHT WINDS AND LOWS FROM THE 20S TO
THE LOWER 30S. ON FRIDAY THE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE QUICKLY MOVES
EAST AND A SOUTH WIND FLOW RETURNS TO AR. TEMPS WILL REBOUND TO
NORMAL VALUES. INTO THE WEEKEND...THE SOUTH WIND FLOW CONTINUES
AND MOISTURE LEVELS WILL COME UP. THE UPPER PATTERN BECOMES MORE
ZONAL AND HELPS WARM TEMPS...WHILE THROUGH SATURDAY...VERY LITTLE
UPPER SHORT WAVE ENERGY IS SEEN. A FEW SPOTTY SHOWERS MAY BE SEEN
SATURDAY AFTERNOON...BUT FACTORS ARE SO WEAK HAVE LEFT SATURDAY
DRY. SO JUST SOME INCREASING CLOUDS ON SATURDAY. LATER SATURDAY
NIGHT AND SUNDAY...ADDITIONAL SHORT WAVE ENERGY MAKES IT TO AR AND
SLIGHT CHANCES ARE IN THE FORECAST...ESPECIALLY FROM SOUTHERN AR
TO CENTRAL. TEMPS WILL BE WELL ABOVE NORMAL ON SUNDAY.

LONG TERM...MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY

A STRONG FRONT WILL LIKELY BE SITUATED IN CENTRAL ARKANSAS COME
MONDAY MORNING...WITH ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE PUSHING SOUTH THROUGH THE
PLAINS AND POSSIBLY NOSING INTO NRN ARKANSAS BY DAYBREAK. RESULTING
TEMPERATURE TRENDS THAT DAY WILL BE DIFFICULT TO PIN DOWN...WITH
READINGS IN THE NORTH LIKELY NOT MOVING MUCH AFTER THE 3-5AM TIME
FRAME...AND HOLDING STEADY OR FALL ACROSS CENTRAL ARKANSAS FROM MID
MORNING ONWARD AS THE COLD AIR FILTERS IN. WITH LIGHT PRECIPITATION
STILL ONGOING MONDAY MORNING...AND NEAR-FREEZING AIR MOVING IN...IT
APPEARS THERE WILL BE AT LEAST A DECENT CHANCE OF SOME WINTRY
PRECIPITATION IN THE NORTHWEST EARLY ON MONDAY. HOWEVER...GIVEN A
DIFFICULT-TO-FORECAST NON DIURNAL TEMPERATURE TREND AND AN UNCERTAIN
ARRIVAL TIME OF ARCTIC AIR...WILL LEAVE MENTION OF ANY WINTRY PRECIP
OUT OF THE FORECAST FOR NOW.

MODELS DIVERGE ON THE FORECAST BEYOND MONDAY...WITH SOME GUIDANCE
SHOWING DRY CONDITIONS TO FINISH OUT THE PERIOD AND OTHER SHOWING
RAIN CHANCES RETURNING TO THE FORECAST WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO
THURSDAY. KEPT WITH A DRY FORECAST AS MOST GUIDANCE POINTS THAT
DIRECTION. WILL ALSO SEE A RETURN TO MORE SEASONAL TEMPERATURES BY
WEDNESDAY...WITH HIGHS IN THE 50S AND LOWS IN THE 30S TO 40S.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BATESVILLE AR     29  54  44  64 /   0   0   0  10
CAMDEN AR         29  60  48  71 /   0   0   0  10
HARRISON AR       30  58  46  65 /   0   0   0   0
HOT SPRINGS AR    31  59  47  67 /   0   0   0  10
LITTLE ROCK   AR  30  58  45  67 /   0   0   0  10
MONTICELLO AR     30  57  47  68 /   0   0   0  10
MOUNT IDA AR      29  58  47  67 /   0   0   0  10
MOUNTAIN HOME AR  29  55  44  65 /   0   0   0  10
NEWPORT AR        29  54  44  63 /   0   0   0  10
PINE BLUFF AR     31  57  45  68 /   0   0   0  10
RUSSELLVILLE AR   30  58  44  67 /   0   0   0  10
SEARCY AR         29  55  42  65 /   0   0   0  10
STUTTGART AR      31  56  44  66 /   0   0   0  10
&&

.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&

$$


AVIATION...62





000
FXUS64 KLZK 272326 AAA
AFDLZK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
526 PM CST THU NOV 27 2014

.DISCUSSION...

UPDATED TO INCLUDE THE 00Z AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW...

&&

.AVIATION...

SFC HIGH PRESSURE WILL SHIFT EAST TONIGHT INTO FRI...WITH SRLY
WINDS RETURNING TO THE STATE. EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS TO DOMINATE
THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 239 PM CST THU NOV 27 2014/

DISCUSSION...

MAIN CONCERNS THIS FORECAST CYCLE ARE INITIALLY A TEMPERATURE
FORECAST AS THEY START COLD...THEN WARM NICELY OVER THE WEEKEND.
THEN THE NEXT SIGNIFICANT CHANCES OF RAIN WILL POSSIBLY START
SATURDAY TO MONDAY WITH THE NEXT SYSTEM. DRYING TUESDAY TO MID
WEEK WITH COOLER TEMPS.

IT HAS BEEN A MOSTLY SUNNY BUT COOL TEMP DAY OVER AR...WITH THE
STRATUS THINNING OVER NE TO E AR...WHILE TEMPS WERE IN THE
40S...AROUND 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. THE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
SYSTEM OVER THE REGION HAS FILTERED COOLER TEMPS AND A QUITE DRY
CONDITIONS TO AR. SURFACE DEW POINT TEMPS WERE IN THE 20S...WHILE
12Z KLZK SOUNDING HAD ONLY A PRECIP WATER VALUE OF 0.23 INCHES...
WITH A NW FLOW. WINDS STARTED A BIT ELEVATED TODAY WITH THE
SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT...BUT HAVE GENERALLY BEEN 15 MPH OR
LESS. THE UPPER TROUGH HAS PUSHED OFF TO THE EASTERN SEABOARD...
WHILE UPPER NW FLOW WAS SET UP INTO THE REGION WITH THE UPPER HIGH
PRESSURE RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN U.S.

SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY

CLEAR AND COLD TONIGHT WITH LIGHT WINDS AND LOWS FROM THE 20S TO
THE LOWER 30S. ON FRIDAY THE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE QUICKLY MOVES
EAST AND A SOUTH WIND FLOW RETURNS TO AR. TEMPS WILL REBOUND TO
NORMAL VALUES. INTO THE WEEKEND...THE SOUTH WIND FLOW CONTINUES
AND MOISTURE LEVELS WILL COME UP. THE UPPER PATTERN BECOMES MORE
ZONAL AND HELPS WARM TEMPS...WHILE THROUGH SATURDAY...VERY LITTLE
UPPER SHORT WAVE ENERGY IS SEEN. A FEW SPOTTY SHOWERS MAY BE SEEN
SATURDAY AFTERNOON...BUT FACTORS ARE SO WEAK HAVE LEFT SATURDAY
DRY. SO JUST SOME INCREASING CLOUDS ON SATURDAY. LATER SATURDAY
NIGHT AND SUNDAY...ADDITIONAL SHORT WAVE ENERGY MAKES IT TO AR AND
SLIGHT CHANCES ARE IN THE FORECAST...ESPECIALLY FROM SOUTHERN AR
TO CENTRAL. TEMPS WILL BE WELL ABOVE NORMAL ON SUNDAY.

LONG TERM...MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY

A STRONG FRONT WILL LIKELY BE SITUATED IN CENTRAL ARKANSAS COME
MONDAY MORNING...WITH ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE PUSHING SOUTH THROUGH THE
PLAINS AND POSSIBLY NOSING INTO NRN ARKANSAS BY DAYBREAK. RESULTING
TEMPERATURE TRENDS THAT DAY WILL BE DIFFICULT TO PIN DOWN...WITH
READINGS IN THE NORTH LIKELY NOT MOVING MUCH AFTER THE 3-5AM TIME
FRAME...AND HOLDING STEADY OR FALL ACROSS CENTRAL ARKANSAS FROM MID
MORNING ONWARD AS THE COLD AIR FILTERS IN. WITH LIGHT PRECIPITATION
STILL ONGOING MONDAY MORNING...AND NEAR-FREEZING AIR MOVING IN...IT
APPEARS THERE WILL BE AT LEAST A DECENT CHANCE OF SOME WINTRY
PRECIPITATION IN THE NORTHWEST EARLY ON MONDAY. HOWEVER...GIVEN A
DIFFICULT-TO-FORECAST NON DIURNAL TEMPERATURE TREND AND AN UNCERTAIN
ARRIVAL TIME OF ARCTIC AIR...WILL LEAVE MENTION OF ANY WINTRY PRECIP
OUT OF THE FORECAST FOR NOW.

MODELS DIVERGE ON THE FORECAST BEYOND MONDAY...WITH SOME GUIDANCE
SHOWING DRY CONDITIONS TO FINISH OUT THE PERIOD AND OTHER SHOWING
RAIN CHANCES RETURNING TO THE FORECAST WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO
THURSDAY. KEPT WITH A DRY FORECAST AS MOST GUIDANCE POINTS THAT
DIRECTION. WILL ALSO SEE A RETURN TO MORE SEASONAL TEMPERATURES BY
WEDNESDAY...WITH HIGHS IN THE 50S AND LOWS IN THE 30S TO 40S.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BATESVILLE AR     29  54  44  64 /   0   0   0  10
CAMDEN AR         29  60  48  71 /   0   0   0  10
HARRISON AR       30  58  46  65 /   0   0   0   0
HOT SPRINGS AR    31  59  47  67 /   0   0   0  10
LITTLE ROCK   AR  30  58  45  67 /   0   0   0  10
MONTICELLO AR     30  57  47  68 /   0   0   0  10
MOUNT IDA AR      29  58  47  67 /   0   0   0  10
MOUNTAIN HOME AR  29  55  44  65 /   0   0   0  10
NEWPORT AR        29  54  44  63 /   0   0   0  10
PINE BLUFF AR     31  57  45  68 /   0   0   0  10
RUSSELLVILLE AR   30  58  44  67 /   0   0   0  10
SEARCY AR         29  55  42  65 /   0   0   0  10
STUTTGART AR      31  56  44  66 /   0   0   0  10
&&

.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&

$$


AVIATION...62





000
FXUS64 KLZK 272326 AAA
AFDLZK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
526 PM CST THU NOV 27 2014

.DISCUSSION...

UPDATED TO INCLUDE THE 00Z AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW...

&&

.AVIATION...

SFC HIGH PRESSURE WILL SHIFT EAST TONIGHT INTO FRI...WITH SRLY
WINDS RETURNING TO THE STATE. EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS TO DOMINATE
THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 239 PM CST THU NOV 27 2014/

DISCUSSION...

MAIN CONCERNS THIS FORECAST CYCLE ARE INITIALLY A TEMPERATURE
FORECAST AS THEY START COLD...THEN WARM NICELY OVER THE WEEKEND.
THEN THE NEXT SIGNIFICANT CHANCES OF RAIN WILL POSSIBLY START
SATURDAY TO MONDAY WITH THE NEXT SYSTEM. DRYING TUESDAY TO MID
WEEK WITH COOLER TEMPS.

IT HAS BEEN A MOSTLY SUNNY BUT COOL TEMP DAY OVER AR...WITH THE
STRATUS THINNING OVER NE TO E AR...WHILE TEMPS WERE IN THE
40S...AROUND 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. THE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
SYSTEM OVER THE REGION HAS FILTERED COOLER TEMPS AND A QUITE DRY
CONDITIONS TO AR. SURFACE DEW POINT TEMPS WERE IN THE 20S...WHILE
12Z KLZK SOUNDING HAD ONLY A PRECIP WATER VALUE OF 0.23 INCHES...
WITH A NW FLOW. WINDS STARTED A BIT ELEVATED TODAY WITH THE
SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT...BUT HAVE GENERALLY BEEN 15 MPH OR
LESS. THE UPPER TROUGH HAS PUSHED OFF TO THE EASTERN SEABOARD...
WHILE UPPER NW FLOW WAS SET UP INTO THE REGION WITH THE UPPER HIGH
PRESSURE RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN U.S.

SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY

CLEAR AND COLD TONIGHT WITH LIGHT WINDS AND LOWS FROM THE 20S TO
THE LOWER 30S. ON FRIDAY THE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE QUICKLY MOVES
EAST AND A SOUTH WIND FLOW RETURNS TO AR. TEMPS WILL REBOUND TO
NORMAL VALUES. INTO THE WEEKEND...THE SOUTH WIND FLOW CONTINUES
AND MOISTURE LEVELS WILL COME UP. THE UPPER PATTERN BECOMES MORE
ZONAL AND HELPS WARM TEMPS...WHILE THROUGH SATURDAY...VERY LITTLE
UPPER SHORT WAVE ENERGY IS SEEN. A FEW SPOTTY SHOWERS MAY BE SEEN
SATURDAY AFTERNOON...BUT FACTORS ARE SO WEAK HAVE LEFT SATURDAY
DRY. SO JUST SOME INCREASING CLOUDS ON SATURDAY. LATER SATURDAY
NIGHT AND SUNDAY...ADDITIONAL SHORT WAVE ENERGY MAKES IT TO AR AND
SLIGHT CHANCES ARE IN THE FORECAST...ESPECIALLY FROM SOUTHERN AR
TO CENTRAL. TEMPS WILL BE WELL ABOVE NORMAL ON SUNDAY.

LONG TERM...MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY

A STRONG FRONT WILL LIKELY BE SITUATED IN CENTRAL ARKANSAS COME
MONDAY MORNING...WITH ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE PUSHING SOUTH THROUGH THE
PLAINS AND POSSIBLY NOSING INTO NRN ARKANSAS BY DAYBREAK. RESULTING
TEMPERATURE TRENDS THAT DAY WILL BE DIFFICULT TO PIN DOWN...WITH
READINGS IN THE NORTH LIKELY NOT MOVING MUCH AFTER THE 3-5AM TIME
FRAME...AND HOLDING STEADY OR FALL ACROSS CENTRAL ARKANSAS FROM MID
MORNING ONWARD AS THE COLD AIR FILTERS IN. WITH LIGHT PRECIPITATION
STILL ONGOING MONDAY MORNING...AND NEAR-FREEZING AIR MOVING IN...IT
APPEARS THERE WILL BE AT LEAST A DECENT CHANCE OF SOME WINTRY
PRECIPITATION IN THE NORTHWEST EARLY ON MONDAY. HOWEVER...GIVEN A
DIFFICULT-TO-FORECAST NON DIURNAL TEMPERATURE TREND AND AN UNCERTAIN
ARRIVAL TIME OF ARCTIC AIR...WILL LEAVE MENTION OF ANY WINTRY PRECIP
OUT OF THE FORECAST FOR NOW.

MODELS DIVERGE ON THE FORECAST BEYOND MONDAY...WITH SOME GUIDANCE
SHOWING DRY CONDITIONS TO FINISH OUT THE PERIOD AND OTHER SHOWING
RAIN CHANCES RETURNING TO THE FORECAST WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO
THURSDAY. KEPT WITH A DRY FORECAST AS MOST GUIDANCE POINTS THAT
DIRECTION. WILL ALSO SEE A RETURN TO MORE SEASONAL TEMPERATURES BY
WEDNESDAY...WITH HIGHS IN THE 50S AND LOWS IN THE 30S TO 40S.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BATESVILLE AR     29  54  44  64 /   0   0   0  10
CAMDEN AR         29  60  48  71 /   0   0   0  10
HARRISON AR       30  58  46  65 /   0   0   0   0
HOT SPRINGS AR    31  59  47  67 /   0   0   0  10
LITTLE ROCK   AR  30  58  45  67 /   0   0   0  10
MONTICELLO AR     30  57  47  68 /   0   0   0  10
MOUNT IDA AR      29  58  47  67 /   0   0   0  10
MOUNTAIN HOME AR  29  55  44  65 /   0   0   0  10
NEWPORT AR        29  54  44  63 /   0   0   0  10
PINE BLUFF AR     31  57  45  68 /   0   0   0  10
RUSSELLVILLE AR   30  58  44  67 /   0   0   0  10
SEARCY AR         29  55  42  65 /   0   0   0  10
STUTTGART AR      31  56  44  66 /   0   0   0  10
&&

.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&

$$


AVIATION...62





000
FXUS64 KLZK 272039
AFDLZK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
239 PM CST THU NOV 27 2014

.DISCUSSION...

MAIN CONCERNS THIS FORECAST CYCLE ARE INITIALLY A TEMPERATURE
FORECAST AS THEY START COLD...THEN WARM NICELY OVER THE WEEKEND.
THEN THE NEXT SIGNIFICANT CHANCES OF RAIN WILL POSSIBLY START
SATURDAY TO MONDAY WITH THE NEXT SYSTEM. DRYING TUESDAY TO MID
WEEK WITH COOLER TEMPS.

IT HAS BEEN A MOSTLY SUNNY BUT COOL TEMP DAY OVER AR...WITH THE
STRATUS THINNING OVER NE TO E AR...WHILE TEMPS WERE IN THE
40S...AROUND 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. THE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
SYSTEM OVER THE REGION HAS FILTERED COOLER TEMPS AND A QUITE DRY
CONDITIONS TO AR. SURFACE DEW POINT TEMPS WERE IN THE 20S...WHILE
12Z KLZK SOUNDING HAD ONLY A PRECIP WATER VALUE OF 0.23 INCHES...
WITH A NW FLOW. WINDS STARTED A BIT ELEVATED TODAY WITH THE
SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT...BUT HAVE GENERALLY BEEN 15 MPH OR
LESS. THE UPPER TROUGH HAS PUSHED OFF TO THE EASTERN SEABOARD...
WHILE UPPER NW FLOW WAS SET UP INTO THE REGION WITH THE UPPER HIGH
PRESSURE RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN U.S.

&&

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY

CLEAR AND COLD TONIGHT WITH LIGHT WINDS AND LOWS FROM THE 20S TO
THE LOWER 30S. ON FRIDAY THE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE QUICKLY MOVES
EAST AND A SOUTH WIND FLOW RETURNS TO AR. TEMPS WILL REBOUND TO
NORMAL VALUES. INTO THE WEEKEND...THE SOUTH WIND FLOW CONTINUES
AND MOISTURE LEVELS WILL COME UP. THE UPPER PATTERN BECOMES MORE
ZONAL AND HELPS WARM TEMPS...WHILE THROUGH SATURDAY...VERY LITTLE
UPPER SHORT WAVE ENERGY IS SEEN. A FEW SPOTTY SHOWERS MAY BE SEEN
SATURDAY AFTERNOON...BUT FACTORS ARE SO WEAK HAVE LEFT SATURDAY
DRY. SO JUST SOME INCREASING CLOUDS ON SATURDAY. LATER SATURDAY
NIGHT AND SUNDAY...ADDITIONAL SHORT WAVE ENERGY MAKES IT TO AR AND
SLIGHT CHANCES ARE IN THE FORECAST...ESPECIALLY FROM SOUTHERN AR
TO CENTRAL. TEMPS WILL BE WELL ABOVE NORMAL ON SUNDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM...MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY

A STRONG FRONT WILL LIKELY BE SITUATED IN CENTRAL ARKANSAS COME
MONDAY MORNING...WITH ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE PUSHING SOUTH THROUGH THE
PLAINS AND POSSIBLY NOSING INTO NRN ARKANSAS BY DAYBREAK. RESULTING
TEMPERATURE TRENDS THAT DAY WILL BE DIFFICULT TO PIN DOWN...WITH
READINGS IN THE NORTH LIKELY NOT MOVING MUCH AFTER THE 3-5AM TIME
FRAME...AND HOLDING STEADY OR FALL ACROSS CENTRAL ARKANSAS FROM MID
MORNING ONWARD AS THE COLD AIR FILTERS IN. WITH LIGHT PRECIPITATION
STILL ONGOING MONDAY MORNING...AND NEAR-FREEZING AIR MOVING IN...IT
APPEARS THERE WILL BE AT LEAST A DECENT CHANCE OF SOME WINTRY
PRECIPITATION IN THE NORTHWEST EARLY ON MONDAY. HOWEVER...GIVEN A
DIFFICULT-TO-FORECAST NON DIURNAL TEMPERATURE TREND AND AN UNCERTAIN
ARRIVAL TIME OF ARCTIC AIR...WILL LEAVE MENTION OF ANY WINTRY PRECIP
OUT OF THE FORECAST FOR NOW.

MODELS DIVERGE ON THE FORECAST BEYOND MONDAY...WITH SOME GUIDANCE
SHOWING DRY CONDITIONS TO FINISH OUT THE PERIOD AND OTHER SHOWING
RAIN CHANCES RETURNING TO THE FORECAST WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO
THURSDAY. KEPT WITH A DRY FORECAST AS MOST GUIDANCE POINTS THAT
DIRECTION. WILL ALSO SEE A RETURN TO MORE SEASONAL TEMPERATURES BY
WEDNESDAY...WITH HIGHS IN THE 50S AND LOWS IN THE 30S TO 40S.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BATESVILLE AR     29  54  44  64 /   0   0   0  10
CAMDEN AR         29  60  48  71 /   0   0   0  10
HARRISON AR       30  58  46  65 /   0   0   0   0
HOT SPRINGS AR    31  59  47  67 /   0   0   0  10
LITTLE ROCK   AR  30  58  45  67 /   0   0   0  10
MONTICELLO AR     30  57  47  68 /   0   0   0  10
MOUNT IDA AR      29  58  47  67 /   0   0   0  10
MOUNTAIN HOME AR  29  55  44  65 /   0   0   0  10
NEWPORT AR        29  54  44  63 /   0   0   0  10
PINE BLUFF AR     31  57  45  68 /   0   0   0  10
RUSSELLVILLE AR   30  58  44  67 /   0   0   0  10
SEARCY AR         29  55  42  65 /   0   0   0  10
STUTTGART AR      31  56  44  66 /   0   0   0  10
&&

.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...59 / LONG TERM...64






000
FXUS64 KLZK 272039
AFDLZK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
239 PM CST THU NOV 27 2014

.DISCUSSION...

MAIN CONCERNS THIS FORECAST CYCLE ARE INITIALLY A TEMPERATURE
FORECAST AS THEY START COLD...THEN WARM NICELY OVER THE WEEKEND.
THEN THE NEXT SIGNIFICANT CHANCES OF RAIN WILL POSSIBLY START
SATURDAY TO MONDAY WITH THE NEXT SYSTEM. DRYING TUESDAY TO MID
WEEK WITH COOLER TEMPS.

IT HAS BEEN A MOSTLY SUNNY BUT COOL TEMP DAY OVER AR...WITH THE
STRATUS THINNING OVER NE TO E AR...WHILE TEMPS WERE IN THE
40S...AROUND 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. THE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
SYSTEM OVER THE REGION HAS FILTERED COOLER TEMPS AND A QUITE DRY
CONDITIONS TO AR. SURFACE DEW POINT TEMPS WERE IN THE 20S...WHILE
12Z KLZK SOUNDING HAD ONLY A PRECIP WATER VALUE OF 0.23 INCHES...
WITH A NW FLOW. WINDS STARTED A BIT ELEVATED TODAY WITH THE
SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT...BUT HAVE GENERALLY BEEN 15 MPH OR
LESS. THE UPPER TROUGH HAS PUSHED OFF TO THE EASTERN SEABOARD...
WHILE UPPER NW FLOW WAS SET UP INTO THE REGION WITH THE UPPER HIGH
PRESSURE RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN U.S.

&&

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY

CLEAR AND COLD TONIGHT WITH LIGHT WINDS AND LOWS FROM THE 20S TO
THE LOWER 30S. ON FRIDAY THE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE QUICKLY MOVES
EAST AND A SOUTH WIND FLOW RETURNS TO AR. TEMPS WILL REBOUND TO
NORMAL VALUES. INTO THE WEEKEND...THE SOUTH WIND FLOW CONTINUES
AND MOISTURE LEVELS WILL COME UP. THE UPPER PATTERN BECOMES MORE
ZONAL AND HELPS WARM TEMPS...WHILE THROUGH SATURDAY...VERY LITTLE
UPPER SHORT WAVE ENERGY IS SEEN. A FEW SPOTTY SHOWERS MAY BE SEEN
SATURDAY AFTERNOON...BUT FACTORS ARE SO WEAK HAVE LEFT SATURDAY
DRY. SO JUST SOME INCREASING CLOUDS ON SATURDAY. LATER SATURDAY
NIGHT AND SUNDAY...ADDITIONAL SHORT WAVE ENERGY MAKES IT TO AR AND
SLIGHT CHANCES ARE IN THE FORECAST...ESPECIALLY FROM SOUTHERN AR
TO CENTRAL. TEMPS WILL BE WELL ABOVE NORMAL ON SUNDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM...MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY

A STRONG FRONT WILL LIKELY BE SITUATED IN CENTRAL ARKANSAS COME
MONDAY MORNING...WITH ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE PUSHING SOUTH THROUGH THE
PLAINS AND POSSIBLY NOSING INTO NRN ARKANSAS BY DAYBREAK. RESULTING
TEMPERATURE TRENDS THAT DAY WILL BE DIFFICULT TO PIN DOWN...WITH
READINGS IN THE NORTH LIKELY NOT MOVING MUCH AFTER THE 3-5AM TIME
FRAME...AND HOLDING STEADY OR FALL ACROSS CENTRAL ARKANSAS FROM MID
MORNING ONWARD AS THE COLD AIR FILTERS IN. WITH LIGHT PRECIPITATION
STILL ONGOING MONDAY MORNING...AND NEAR-FREEZING AIR MOVING IN...IT
APPEARS THERE WILL BE AT LEAST A DECENT CHANCE OF SOME WINTRY
PRECIPITATION IN THE NORTHWEST EARLY ON MONDAY. HOWEVER...GIVEN A
DIFFICULT-TO-FORECAST NON DIURNAL TEMPERATURE TREND AND AN UNCERTAIN
ARRIVAL TIME OF ARCTIC AIR...WILL LEAVE MENTION OF ANY WINTRY PRECIP
OUT OF THE FORECAST FOR NOW.

MODELS DIVERGE ON THE FORECAST BEYOND MONDAY...WITH SOME GUIDANCE
SHOWING DRY CONDITIONS TO FINISH OUT THE PERIOD AND OTHER SHOWING
RAIN CHANCES RETURNING TO THE FORECAST WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO
THURSDAY. KEPT WITH A DRY FORECAST AS MOST GUIDANCE POINTS THAT
DIRECTION. WILL ALSO SEE A RETURN TO MORE SEASONAL TEMPERATURES BY
WEDNESDAY...WITH HIGHS IN THE 50S AND LOWS IN THE 30S TO 40S.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BATESVILLE AR     29  54  44  64 /   0   0   0  10
CAMDEN AR         29  60  48  71 /   0   0   0  10
HARRISON AR       30  58  46  65 /   0   0   0   0
HOT SPRINGS AR    31  59  47  67 /   0   0   0  10
LITTLE ROCK   AR  30  58  45  67 /   0   0   0  10
MONTICELLO AR     30  57  47  68 /   0   0   0  10
MOUNT IDA AR      29  58  47  67 /   0   0   0  10
MOUNTAIN HOME AR  29  55  44  65 /   0   0   0  10
NEWPORT AR        29  54  44  63 /   0   0   0  10
PINE BLUFF AR     31  57  45  68 /   0   0   0  10
RUSSELLVILLE AR   30  58  44  67 /   0   0   0  10
SEARCY AR         29  55  42  65 /   0   0   0  10
STUTTGART AR      31  56  44  66 /   0   0   0  10
&&

.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...59 / LONG TERM...64






000
FXUS64 KLZK 272039
AFDLZK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
239 PM CST THU NOV 27 2014

.DISCUSSION...

MAIN CONCERNS THIS FORECAST CYCLE ARE INITIALLY A TEMPERATURE
FORECAST AS THEY START COLD...THEN WARM NICELY OVER THE WEEKEND.
THEN THE NEXT SIGNIFICANT CHANCES OF RAIN WILL POSSIBLY START
SATURDAY TO MONDAY WITH THE NEXT SYSTEM. DRYING TUESDAY TO MID
WEEK WITH COOLER TEMPS.

IT HAS BEEN A MOSTLY SUNNY BUT COOL TEMP DAY OVER AR...WITH THE
STRATUS THINNING OVER NE TO E AR...WHILE TEMPS WERE IN THE
40S...AROUND 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. THE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
SYSTEM OVER THE REGION HAS FILTERED COOLER TEMPS AND A QUITE DRY
CONDITIONS TO AR. SURFACE DEW POINT TEMPS WERE IN THE 20S...WHILE
12Z KLZK SOUNDING HAD ONLY A PRECIP WATER VALUE OF 0.23 INCHES...
WITH A NW FLOW. WINDS STARTED A BIT ELEVATED TODAY WITH THE
SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT...BUT HAVE GENERALLY BEEN 15 MPH OR
LESS. THE UPPER TROUGH HAS PUSHED OFF TO THE EASTERN SEABOARD...
WHILE UPPER NW FLOW WAS SET UP INTO THE REGION WITH THE UPPER HIGH
PRESSURE RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN U.S.

&&

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY

CLEAR AND COLD TONIGHT WITH LIGHT WINDS AND LOWS FROM THE 20S TO
THE LOWER 30S. ON FRIDAY THE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE QUICKLY MOVES
EAST AND A SOUTH WIND FLOW RETURNS TO AR. TEMPS WILL REBOUND TO
NORMAL VALUES. INTO THE WEEKEND...THE SOUTH WIND FLOW CONTINUES
AND MOISTURE LEVELS WILL COME UP. THE UPPER PATTERN BECOMES MORE
ZONAL AND HELPS WARM TEMPS...WHILE THROUGH SATURDAY...VERY LITTLE
UPPER SHORT WAVE ENERGY IS SEEN. A FEW SPOTTY SHOWERS MAY BE SEEN
SATURDAY AFTERNOON...BUT FACTORS ARE SO WEAK HAVE LEFT SATURDAY
DRY. SO JUST SOME INCREASING CLOUDS ON SATURDAY. LATER SATURDAY
NIGHT AND SUNDAY...ADDITIONAL SHORT WAVE ENERGY MAKES IT TO AR AND
SLIGHT CHANCES ARE IN THE FORECAST...ESPECIALLY FROM SOUTHERN AR
TO CENTRAL. TEMPS WILL BE WELL ABOVE NORMAL ON SUNDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM...MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY

A STRONG FRONT WILL LIKELY BE SITUATED IN CENTRAL ARKANSAS COME
MONDAY MORNING...WITH ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE PUSHING SOUTH THROUGH THE
PLAINS AND POSSIBLY NOSING INTO NRN ARKANSAS BY DAYBREAK. RESULTING
TEMPERATURE TRENDS THAT DAY WILL BE DIFFICULT TO PIN DOWN...WITH
READINGS IN THE NORTH LIKELY NOT MOVING MUCH AFTER THE 3-5AM TIME
FRAME...AND HOLDING STEADY OR FALL ACROSS CENTRAL ARKANSAS FROM MID
MORNING ONWARD AS THE COLD AIR FILTERS IN. WITH LIGHT PRECIPITATION
STILL ONGOING MONDAY MORNING...AND NEAR-FREEZING AIR MOVING IN...IT
APPEARS THERE WILL BE AT LEAST A DECENT CHANCE OF SOME WINTRY
PRECIPITATION IN THE NORTHWEST EARLY ON MONDAY. HOWEVER...GIVEN A
DIFFICULT-TO-FORECAST NON DIURNAL TEMPERATURE TREND AND AN UNCERTAIN
ARRIVAL TIME OF ARCTIC AIR...WILL LEAVE MENTION OF ANY WINTRY PRECIP
OUT OF THE FORECAST FOR NOW.

MODELS DIVERGE ON THE FORECAST BEYOND MONDAY...WITH SOME GUIDANCE
SHOWING DRY CONDITIONS TO FINISH OUT THE PERIOD AND OTHER SHOWING
RAIN CHANCES RETURNING TO THE FORECAST WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO
THURSDAY. KEPT WITH A DRY FORECAST AS MOST GUIDANCE POINTS THAT
DIRECTION. WILL ALSO SEE A RETURN TO MORE SEASONAL TEMPERATURES BY
WEDNESDAY...WITH HIGHS IN THE 50S AND LOWS IN THE 30S TO 40S.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BATESVILLE AR     29  54  44  64 /   0   0   0  10
CAMDEN AR         29  60  48  71 /   0   0   0  10
HARRISON AR       30  58  46  65 /   0   0   0   0
HOT SPRINGS AR    31  59  47  67 /   0   0   0  10
LITTLE ROCK   AR  30  58  45  67 /   0   0   0  10
MONTICELLO AR     30  57  47  68 /   0   0   0  10
MOUNT IDA AR      29  58  47  67 /   0   0   0  10
MOUNTAIN HOME AR  29  55  44  65 /   0   0   0  10
NEWPORT AR        29  54  44  63 /   0   0   0  10
PINE BLUFF AR     31  57  45  68 /   0   0   0  10
RUSSELLVILLE AR   30  58  44  67 /   0   0   0  10
SEARCY AR         29  55  42  65 /   0   0   0  10
STUTTGART AR      31  56  44  66 /   0   0   0  10
&&

.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...59 / LONG TERM...64






000
FXUS64 KLZK 272039
AFDLZK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
239 PM CST THU NOV 27 2014

.DISCUSSION...

MAIN CONCERNS THIS FORECAST CYCLE ARE INITIALLY A TEMPERATURE
FORECAST AS THEY START COLD...THEN WARM NICELY OVER THE WEEKEND.
THEN THE NEXT SIGNIFICANT CHANCES OF RAIN WILL POSSIBLY START
SATURDAY TO MONDAY WITH THE NEXT SYSTEM. DRYING TUESDAY TO MID
WEEK WITH COOLER TEMPS.

IT HAS BEEN A MOSTLY SUNNY BUT COOL TEMP DAY OVER AR...WITH THE
STRATUS THINNING OVER NE TO E AR...WHILE TEMPS WERE IN THE
40S...AROUND 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. THE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
SYSTEM OVER THE REGION HAS FILTERED COOLER TEMPS AND A QUITE DRY
CONDITIONS TO AR. SURFACE DEW POINT TEMPS WERE IN THE 20S...WHILE
12Z KLZK SOUNDING HAD ONLY A PRECIP WATER VALUE OF 0.23 INCHES...
WITH A NW FLOW. WINDS STARTED A BIT ELEVATED TODAY WITH THE
SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT...BUT HAVE GENERALLY BEEN 15 MPH OR
LESS. THE UPPER TROUGH HAS PUSHED OFF TO THE EASTERN SEABOARD...
WHILE UPPER NW FLOW WAS SET UP INTO THE REGION WITH THE UPPER HIGH
PRESSURE RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN U.S.

&&

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY

CLEAR AND COLD TONIGHT WITH LIGHT WINDS AND LOWS FROM THE 20S TO
THE LOWER 30S. ON FRIDAY THE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE QUICKLY MOVES
EAST AND A SOUTH WIND FLOW RETURNS TO AR. TEMPS WILL REBOUND TO
NORMAL VALUES. INTO THE WEEKEND...THE SOUTH WIND FLOW CONTINUES
AND MOISTURE LEVELS WILL COME UP. THE UPPER PATTERN BECOMES MORE
ZONAL AND HELPS WARM TEMPS...WHILE THROUGH SATURDAY...VERY LITTLE
UPPER SHORT WAVE ENERGY IS SEEN. A FEW SPOTTY SHOWERS MAY BE SEEN
SATURDAY AFTERNOON...BUT FACTORS ARE SO WEAK HAVE LEFT SATURDAY
DRY. SO JUST SOME INCREASING CLOUDS ON SATURDAY. LATER SATURDAY
NIGHT AND SUNDAY...ADDITIONAL SHORT WAVE ENERGY MAKES IT TO AR AND
SLIGHT CHANCES ARE IN THE FORECAST...ESPECIALLY FROM SOUTHERN AR
TO CENTRAL. TEMPS WILL BE WELL ABOVE NORMAL ON SUNDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM...MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY

A STRONG FRONT WILL LIKELY BE SITUATED IN CENTRAL ARKANSAS COME
MONDAY MORNING...WITH ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE PUSHING SOUTH THROUGH THE
PLAINS AND POSSIBLY NOSING INTO NRN ARKANSAS BY DAYBREAK. RESULTING
TEMPERATURE TRENDS THAT DAY WILL BE DIFFICULT TO PIN DOWN...WITH
READINGS IN THE NORTH LIKELY NOT MOVING MUCH AFTER THE 3-5AM TIME
FRAME...AND HOLDING STEADY OR FALL ACROSS CENTRAL ARKANSAS FROM MID
MORNING ONWARD AS THE COLD AIR FILTERS IN. WITH LIGHT PRECIPITATION
STILL ONGOING MONDAY MORNING...AND NEAR-FREEZING AIR MOVING IN...IT
APPEARS THERE WILL BE AT LEAST A DECENT CHANCE OF SOME WINTRY
PRECIPITATION IN THE NORTHWEST EARLY ON MONDAY. HOWEVER...GIVEN A
DIFFICULT-TO-FORECAST NON DIURNAL TEMPERATURE TREND AND AN UNCERTAIN
ARRIVAL TIME OF ARCTIC AIR...WILL LEAVE MENTION OF ANY WINTRY PRECIP
OUT OF THE FORECAST FOR NOW.

MODELS DIVERGE ON THE FORECAST BEYOND MONDAY...WITH SOME GUIDANCE
SHOWING DRY CONDITIONS TO FINISH OUT THE PERIOD AND OTHER SHOWING
RAIN CHANCES RETURNING TO THE FORECAST WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO
THURSDAY. KEPT WITH A DRY FORECAST AS MOST GUIDANCE POINTS THAT
DIRECTION. WILL ALSO SEE A RETURN TO MORE SEASONAL TEMPERATURES BY
WEDNESDAY...WITH HIGHS IN THE 50S AND LOWS IN THE 30S TO 40S.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BATESVILLE AR     29  54  44  64 /   0   0   0  10
CAMDEN AR         29  60  48  71 /   0   0   0  10
HARRISON AR       30  58  46  65 /   0   0   0   0
HOT SPRINGS AR    31  59  47  67 /   0   0   0  10
LITTLE ROCK   AR  30  58  45  67 /   0   0   0  10
MONTICELLO AR     30  57  47  68 /   0   0   0  10
MOUNT IDA AR      29  58  47  67 /   0   0   0  10
MOUNTAIN HOME AR  29  55  44  65 /   0   0   0  10
NEWPORT AR        29  54  44  63 /   0   0   0  10
PINE BLUFF AR     31  57  45  68 /   0   0   0  10
RUSSELLVILLE AR   30  58  44  67 /   0   0   0  10
SEARCY AR         29  55  42  65 /   0   0   0  10
STUTTGART AR      31  56  44  66 /   0   0   0  10
&&

.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...59 / LONG TERM...64






000
FXUS64 KLZK 271739 AAC
AFDLZK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
1139 AM CST THU NOV 27 2014

.DISCUSSION...

UPDATED FOR THE 18Z AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

&&

.AVIATION...

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE PERIOD AS HIGH PRESSURE
SETTLES INTO ARKANSAS TONIGHT AND SHIFTS EAST OF THE AREA ON
FRIDAY. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE AT MOST SITES THIS
AFTERNOON THROUGH LATE TONIGHT BEFORE PICKING UP STEADY SOUTH
WINDS 4-7KT AFTER 08Z-10Z OR SO. THE EXCEPTION WILL BE AT KHRO AND
KBPK WHERE THE ELEVATION WILL ALLOW THEM TO PICK UP SOME INFLUENCE
OF A LOW LEVEL JET TONIGHT. GUSTS TO 18-20KT SHOULD START
SURFACING AT THOSE TERMINALS BY 10Z-12Z OR SO FRI MORNING.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1100 AM CST THU NOV 27 2014/

DISCUSSION...

OVERALL FORECAST ON TRACK. CLOUDS OVER NORTHERN TO EASTERN AR WERE
THINNING AND WILL ONLY AFFECT NE AREAS WHERE THE STRATUS CLOUDS
AROUND THE STRONG SURFACE LOW WILL HAVE SOME EFFECT. TEMPS WILL BE
COOL TODAY WITH ONLY 40S MOST LOCALS...WHILE SOME LOWER 50S IN SW
AR. THE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO FILTER INTO AR
AND BRING THE COOLER TEMPS AND A QUITE DRY ATMOSPHERE OVER AR.
SURFACE DEW POINT TEMPS WERE IN THE 20S...WHILE 12Z KLZK SOUNDING
HAD ONLY A PRECIP WATER VALUE OF 0.23 INCHES...WITH A NW FLOW. WINDS
WILL BE A BIT ELEVATED TODAY WITH THE SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT.
LATE MORNING UPDATE WILL ONLY FINE TUNE A FEW ELEMENTS. (59)


PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 350 AM CST THU NOV 27 2014/

SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT

CYCLONIC FLOW...ASSOCD WITH UPR LVL STORM SYS ACRS THE LOWER OH
VALLEY REGION...BROUGHT LOW CLOUDS TO NRN AR DURG THE OVERNIGHT HRS.
SOME OF THIS CLOUD COVER HAS DVLPD FURTHER SWD INTO E-CNTRL AR SINCE
MIDNIGHT. EARLY MRNG TEMPS WERE MAINLY IN THE 30S AND LOWER 40S.

SFC HIGH PRES RDG WL BLD INTO AR TODAY...ALLOWING SFC WINDS TO
DIMINISH. FCST MODEL SOUNDINGS INDC THAT THE AFOREMENTIONED LOW
CLOUDS WL ERODE LATER THIS MRNG AS DRIER AIR CONTS TO SETTLE INTO
THE FA. HIGH TEMPS TODAY WILL BE MAINLY IN THE 40S AND LOWER 50S.
COLD READINGS WL BE COMMON TNGT AS THE HIGH EVENTUALLY SHIFTS E OF
THE STATE. SOME OF THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS ACRS NRN AR MAY SEE LOW
TEMPS EARLY TNGT AS LGT S/SELY WINDS RETURN DURG THE LATE NGT HRS.

THE WARMING TREND WL CONT INTO THE WEEKEND AS THE UPR LVL FLOW
PATTERN DE-AMPLIFIES AND BCMS ZONAL ACRS THE SRN STATES. BREEZY
S/SWLY WINDS WL BE COMMON SAT AND SUN AS LOW PRES STRENGTHENS OVR
THE WRN PLAINS STATES. THE GULF OF MEXICO WL ALSO BE OPEN FOR
BUSINESS...WITH LOW CLOUDS EXPECTED TO AFFECT THE REGION BOTH DAYS
ALONG WITH SMALL CHCS OF DRIZZLE AND/OR LGT RAIN.

MODELS RMN IN GOOD AGREEMENT THIS MRNG BY BRINGING A SHALLOW ARCTIC
CDFNT SWD THRU THE PLAINS STATES LATE IN THE WEEKEND. STAYED CLOSER
TO THE SLOWER ECMWF/GEM SOLUTIONS FOR TIMING...AS THE GFS APPEARS
TOO FAST BRINGING THE AIRMASS THRU THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF NW AR SUN
NGT. CONTD WITH 20 TO 30 PERCENT POPS SUN NGT AS SOME LGT RAIN WL
DVLP BEHIND THE FROPA.

LONG TERM...MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY

WILL CONTINUE LOW CHANCE POPS FOR MONDAY...AS MOISTURE RETURNS AHEAD
OF COLD FRONT MOVING SOUTH INTO THE STATE. THE COLD AIR WILL BE
SHALLOW...AND WILL HAVE A TOUGH TIME MOVING THROUGH THE OZARKS. EVEN
SO...THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR LIGHT ICING ACROSS THE FAR NORTH
MONDAY MORNING...BUT DUE TO UNCERTAINTY WITH TEMPERATURES...DID NOT
INCLUDE YET IN THE GRIDS.

THERE IS UNCERTAINTY FOR THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK...AS MODELS DIFFER
ON TIMING OF THE NEXT FRONT. HAVE TRENDED TOWARDS THE EUROPEAN
SOLUTION...AND LEFT A DRY FORECAST THROUGH WEDNESDAY...WITH
TEMPERATURES WARMING BACK TO NEAR NORMAL HIGHS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BATESVILLE AR     47  29  54  44 /   0   0   0   0
CAMDEN AR         53  29  60  46 /   0   0   0   0
HARRISON AR       45  30  58  45 /   0   0   0   0
HOT SPRINGS AR    51  31  59  48 /   0   0   0   0
LITTLE ROCK   AR  50  30  58  46 /   0   0   0   0
MONTICELLO AR     50  30  57  47 /   0   0   0   0
MOUNT IDA AR      52  29  59  47 /   0   0   0   0
MOUNTAIN HOME AR  45  29  55  44 /   0   0   0   0
NEWPORT AR        47  29  54  44 /   0   0   0   0
PINE BLUFF AR     49  31  58  46 /   0   0   0   0
RUSSELLVILLE AR   49  30  58  44 /   0   0   0   0
SEARCY AR         48  28  55  42 /   0   0   0   0
STUTTGART AR      48  31  56  44 /   0   0   0   0
&&

.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&

$$


AVIATION...64






000
FXUS64 KLZK 271739 AAC
AFDLZK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
1139 AM CST THU NOV 27 2014

.DISCUSSION...

UPDATED FOR THE 18Z AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

&&

.AVIATION...

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE PERIOD AS HIGH PRESSURE
SETTLES INTO ARKANSAS TONIGHT AND SHIFTS EAST OF THE AREA ON
FRIDAY. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE AT MOST SITES THIS
AFTERNOON THROUGH LATE TONIGHT BEFORE PICKING UP STEADY SOUTH
WINDS 4-7KT AFTER 08Z-10Z OR SO. THE EXCEPTION WILL BE AT KHRO AND
KBPK WHERE THE ELEVATION WILL ALLOW THEM TO PICK UP SOME INFLUENCE
OF A LOW LEVEL JET TONIGHT. GUSTS TO 18-20KT SHOULD START
SURFACING AT THOSE TERMINALS BY 10Z-12Z OR SO FRI MORNING.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1100 AM CST THU NOV 27 2014/

DISCUSSION...

OVERALL FORECAST ON TRACK. CLOUDS OVER NORTHERN TO EASTERN AR WERE
THINNING AND WILL ONLY AFFECT NE AREAS WHERE THE STRATUS CLOUDS
AROUND THE STRONG SURFACE LOW WILL HAVE SOME EFFECT. TEMPS WILL BE
COOL TODAY WITH ONLY 40S MOST LOCALS...WHILE SOME LOWER 50S IN SW
AR. THE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO FILTER INTO AR
AND BRING THE COOLER TEMPS AND A QUITE DRY ATMOSPHERE OVER AR.
SURFACE DEW POINT TEMPS WERE IN THE 20S...WHILE 12Z KLZK SOUNDING
HAD ONLY A PRECIP WATER VALUE OF 0.23 INCHES...WITH A NW FLOW. WINDS
WILL BE A BIT ELEVATED TODAY WITH THE SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT.
LATE MORNING UPDATE WILL ONLY FINE TUNE A FEW ELEMENTS. (59)


PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 350 AM CST THU NOV 27 2014/

SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT

CYCLONIC FLOW...ASSOCD WITH UPR LVL STORM SYS ACRS THE LOWER OH
VALLEY REGION...BROUGHT LOW CLOUDS TO NRN AR DURG THE OVERNIGHT HRS.
SOME OF THIS CLOUD COVER HAS DVLPD FURTHER SWD INTO E-CNTRL AR SINCE
MIDNIGHT. EARLY MRNG TEMPS WERE MAINLY IN THE 30S AND LOWER 40S.

SFC HIGH PRES RDG WL BLD INTO AR TODAY...ALLOWING SFC WINDS TO
DIMINISH. FCST MODEL SOUNDINGS INDC THAT THE AFOREMENTIONED LOW
CLOUDS WL ERODE LATER THIS MRNG AS DRIER AIR CONTS TO SETTLE INTO
THE FA. HIGH TEMPS TODAY WILL BE MAINLY IN THE 40S AND LOWER 50S.
COLD READINGS WL BE COMMON TNGT AS THE HIGH EVENTUALLY SHIFTS E OF
THE STATE. SOME OF THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS ACRS NRN AR MAY SEE LOW
TEMPS EARLY TNGT AS LGT S/SELY WINDS RETURN DURG THE LATE NGT HRS.

THE WARMING TREND WL CONT INTO THE WEEKEND AS THE UPR LVL FLOW
PATTERN DE-AMPLIFIES AND BCMS ZONAL ACRS THE SRN STATES. BREEZY
S/SWLY WINDS WL BE COMMON SAT AND SUN AS LOW PRES STRENGTHENS OVR
THE WRN PLAINS STATES. THE GULF OF MEXICO WL ALSO BE OPEN FOR
BUSINESS...WITH LOW CLOUDS EXPECTED TO AFFECT THE REGION BOTH DAYS
ALONG WITH SMALL CHCS OF DRIZZLE AND/OR LGT RAIN.

MODELS RMN IN GOOD AGREEMENT THIS MRNG BY BRINGING A SHALLOW ARCTIC
CDFNT SWD THRU THE PLAINS STATES LATE IN THE WEEKEND. STAYED CLOSER
TO THE SLOWER ECMWF/GEM SOLUTIONS FOR TIMING...AS THE GFS APPEARS
TOO FAST BRINGING THE AIRMASS THRU THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF NW AR SUN
NGT. CONTD WITH 20 TO 30 PERCENT POPS SUN NGT AS SOME LGT RAIN WL
DVLP BEHIND THE FROPA.

LONG TERM...MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY

WILL CONTINUE LOW CHANCE POPS FOR MONDAY...AS MOISTURE RETURNS AHEAD
OF COLD FRONT MOVING SOUTH INTO THE STATE. THE COLD AIR WILL BE
SHALLOW...AND WILL HAVE A TOUGH TIME MOVING THROUGH THE OZARKS. EVEN
SO...THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR LIGHT ICING ACROSS THE FAR NORTH
MONDAY MORNING...BUT DUE TO UNCERTAINTY WITH TEMPERATURES...DID NOT
INCLUDE YET IN THE GRIDS.

THERE IS UNCERTAINTY FOR THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK...AS MODELS DIFFER
ON TIMING OF THE NEXT FRONT. HAVE TRENDED TOWARDS THE EUROPEAN
SOLUTION...AND LEFT A DRY FORECAST THROUGH WEDNESDAY...WITH
TEMPERATURES WARMING BACK TO NEAR NORMAL HIGHS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BATESVILLE AR     47  29  54  44 /   0   0   0   0
CAMDEN AR         53  29  60  46 /   0   0   0   0
HARRISON AR       45  30  58  45 /   0   0   0   0
HOT SPRINGS AR    51  31  59  48 /   0   0   0   0
LITTLE ROCK   AR  50  30  58  46 /   0   0   0   0
MONTICELLO AR     50  30  57  47 /   0   0   0   0
MOUNT IDA AR      52  29  59  47 /   0   0   0   0
MOUNTAIN HOME AR  45  29  55  44 /   0   0   0   0
NEWPORT AR        47  29  54  44 /   0   0   0   0
PINE BLUFF AR     49  31  58  46 /   0   0   0   0
RUSSELLVILLE AR   49  30  58  44 /   0   0   0   0
SEARCY AR         48  28  55  42 /   0   0   0   0
STUTTGART AR      48  31  56  44 /   0   0   0   0
&&

.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&

$$


AVIATION...64







000
FXUS64 KLZK 271659 AAB
AFDLZK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
1100 AM CST THU NOV 27 2014

.DISCUSSION...

OVERALL FORECAST ON TRACK. CLOUDS OVER NORTHERN TO EASTERN AR WERE
THINNING AND WILL ONLY AFFECT NE AREAS WHERE THE STRATUS CLOUDS
AROUND THE STRONG SURFACE LOW WILL HAVE SOME EFFECT. TEMPS WILL BE
COOL TODAY WITH ONLY 40S MOST LOCALS...WHILE SOME LOWER 50S IN SW
AR. THE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO FILTER INTO AR
AND BRING THE COOLER TEMPS AND A QUITE DRY ATMOSPHERE OVER AR.
SURFACE DEW POINT TEMPS WERE IN THE 20S...WHILE 12Z KLZK SOUNDING
HAD ONLY A PRECIP WATER VALUE OF 0.23 INCHES...WITH A NW FLOW. WINDS
WILL BE A BIT ELEVATED TODAY WITH THE SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT.
LATE MORNING UPDATE WILL ONLY FINE TUNE A FEW ELEMENTS. (59)

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 531 AM CST THU NOV 27 2014/

.AVIATION...
MVFR CIGS WILL GRADUALLY DISSIPATE THIS MORNING. NORTHWEST WINDS
WILL BECOME SOUTHEAST AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OFF TO THE EAST.
&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 350 AM CST THU NOV 27 2014/

SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT

CYCLONIC FLOW...ASSOCD WITH UPR LVL STORM SYS ACRS THE LOWER OH
VALLEY REGION...BROUGHT LOW CLOUDS TO NRN AR DURG THE OVERNIGHT HRS.
SOME OF THIS CLOUD COVER HAS DVLPD FURTHER SWD INTO E-CNTRL AR SINCE
MIDNIGHT. EARLY MRNG TEMPS WERE MAINLY IN THE 30S AND LOWER 40S.

SFC HIGH PRES RDG WL BLD INTO AR TODAY...ALLOWING SFC WINDS TO
DIMINISH. FCST MODEL SOUNDINGS INDC THAT THE AFOREMENTIONED LOW
CLOUDS WL ERODE LATER THIS MRNG AS DRIER AIR CONTS TO SETTLE INTO
THE FA. HIGH TEMPS TODAY WILL BE MAINLY IN THE 40S AND LOWER 50S.
COLD READINGS WL BE COMMON TNGT AS THE HIGH EVENTUALLY SHIFTS E OF
THE STATE. SOME OF THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS ACRS NRN AR MAY SEE LOW
TEMPS EARLY TNGT AS LGT S/SELY WINDS RETURN DURG THE LATE NGT HRS.

THE WARMING TREND WL CONT INTO THE WEEKEND AS THE UPR LVL FLOW
PATTERN DE-AMPLIFIES AND BCMS ZONAL ACRS THE SRN STATES. BREEZY
S/SWLY WINDS WL BE COMMON SAT AND SUN AS LOW PRES STRENGTHENS OVR
THE WRN PLAINS STATES. THE GULF OF MEXICO WL ALSO BE OPEN FOR
BUSINESS...WITH LOW CLOUDS EXPECTED TO AFFECT THE REGION BOTH DAYS
ALONG WITH SMALL CHCS OF DRIZZLE AND/OR LGT RAIN.

MODELS RMN IN GOOD AGREEMENT THIS MRNG BY BRINGING A SHALLOW ARCTIC
CDFNT SWD THRU THE PLAINS STATES LATE IN THE WEEKEND. STAYED CLOSER
TO THE SLOWER ECMWF/GEM SOLUTIONS FOR TIMING...AS THE GFS APPEARS
TOO FAST BRINGING THE AIRMASS THRU THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF NW AR SUN
NGT. CONTD WITH 20 TO 30 PERCENT POPS SUN NGT AS SOME LGT RAIN WL
DVLP BEHIND THE FROPA.

LONG TERM...MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY

WILL CONTINUE LOW CHANCE POPS FOR MONDAY...AS MOISTURE RETURNS AHEAD
OF COLD FRONT MOVING SOUTH INTO THE STATE. THE COLD AIR WILL BE
SHALLOW...AND WILL HAVE A TOUGH TIME MOVING THROUGH THE OZARKS. EVEN
SO...THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR LIGHT ICING ACROSS THE FAR NORTH
MONDAY MORNING...BUT DUE TO UNCERTAINTY WITH TEMPERATURES...DID NOT
INCLUDE YET IN THE GRIDS.

THERE IS UNCERTAINTY FOR THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK...AS MODELS DIFFER
ON TIMING OF THE NEXT FRONT. HAVE TRENDED TOWARDS THE EUROPEAN
SOLUTION...AND LEFT A DRY FORECAST THROUGH WEDNESDAY...WITH
TEMPERATURES WARMING BACK TO NEAR NORMAL HIGHS.
&&

.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&

$$

AVIATION...58








000
FXUS64 KLZK 271659 AAB
AFDLZK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
1100 AM CST THU NOV 27 2014

.DISCUSSION...

OVERALL FORECAST ON TRACK. CLOUDS OVER NORTHERN TO EASTERN AR WERE
THINNING AND WILL ONLY AFFECT NE AREAS WHERE THE STRATUS CLOUDS
AROUND THE STRONG SURFACE LOW WILL HAVE SOME EFFECT. TEMPS WILL BE
COOL TODAY WITH ONLY 40S MOST LOCALS...WHILE SOME LOWER 50S IN SW
AR. THE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO FILTER INTO AR
AND BRING THE COOLER TEMPS AND A QUITE DRY ATMOSPHERE OVER AR.
SURFACE DEW POINT TEMPS WERE IN THE 20S...WHILE 12Z KLZK SOUNDING
HAD ONLY A PRECIP WATER VALUE OF 0.23 INCHES...WITH A NW FLOW. WINDS
WILL BE A BIT ELEVATED TODAY WITH THE SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT.
LATE MORNING UPDATE WILL ONLY FINE TUNE A FEW ELEMENTS. (59)

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 531 AM CST THU NOV 27 2014/

.AVIATION...
MVFR CIGS WILL GRADUALLY DISSIPATE THIS MORNING. NORTHWEST WINDS
WILL BECOME SOUTHEAST AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OFF TO THE EAST.
&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 350 AM CST THU NOV 27 2014/

SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT

CYCLONIC FLOW...ASSOCD WITH UPR LVL STORM SYS ACRS THE LOWER OH
VALLEY REGION...BROUGHT LOW CLOUDS TO NRN AR DURG THE OVERNIGHT HRS.
SOME OF THIS CLOUD COVER HAS DVLPD FURTHER SWD INTO E-CNTRL AR SINCE
MIDNIGHT. EARLY MRNG TEMPS WERE MAINLY IN THE 30S AND LOWER 40S.

SFC HIGH PRES RDG WL BLD INTO AR TODAY...ALLOWING SFC WINDS TO
DIMINISH. FCST MODEL SOUNDINGS INDC THAT THE AFOREMENTIONED LOW
CLOUDS WL ERODE LATER THIS MRNG AS DRIER AIR CONTS TO SETTLE INTO
THE FA. HIGH TEMPS TODAY WILL BE MAINLY IN THE 40S AND LOWER 50S.
COLD READINGS WL BE COMMON TNGT AS THE HIGH EVENTUALLY SHIFTS E OF
THE STATE. SOME OF THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS ACRS NRN AR MAY SEE LOW
TEMPS EARLY TNGT AS LGT S/SELY WINDS RETURN DURG THE LATE NGT HRS.

THE WARMING TREND WL CONT INTO THE WEEKEND AS THE UPR LVL FLOW
PATTERN DE-AMPLIFIES AND BCMS ZONAL ACRS THE SRN STATES. BREEZY
S/SWLY WINDS WL BE COMMON SAT AND SUN AS LOW PRES STRENGTHENS OVR
THE WRN PLAINS STATES. THE GULF OF MEXICO WL ALSO BE OPEN FOR
BUSINESS...WITH LOW CLOUDS EXPECTED TO AFFECT THE REGION BOTH DAYS
ALONG WITH SMALL CHCS OF DRIZZLE AND/OR LGT RAIN.

MODELS RMN IN GOOD AGREEMENT THIS MRNG BY BRINGING A SHALLOW ARCTIC
CDFNT SWD THRU THE PLAINS STATES LATE IN THE WEEKEND. STAYED CLOSER
TO THE SLOWER ECMWF/GEM SOLUTIONS FOR TIMING...AS THE GFS APPEARS
TOO FAST BRINGING THE AIRMASS THRU THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF NW AR SUN
NGT. CONTD WITH 20 TO 30 PERCENT POPS SUN NGT AS SOME LGT RAIN WL
DVLP BEHIND THE FROPA.

LONG TERM...MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY

WILL CONTINUE LOW CHANCE POPS FOR MONDAY...AS MOISTURE RETURNS AHEAD
OF COLD FRONT MOVING SOUTH INTO THE STATE. THE COLD AIR WILL BE
SHALLOW...AND WILL HAVE A TOUGH TIME MOVING THROUGH THE OZARKS. EVEN
SO...THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR LIGHT ICING ACROSS THE FAR NORTH
MONDAY MORNING...BUT DUE TO UNCERTAINTY WITH TEMPERATURES...DID NOT
INCLUDE YET IN THE GRIDS.

THERE IS UNCERTAINTY FOR THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK...AS MODELS DIFFER
ON TIMING OF THE NEXT FRONT. HAVE TRENDED TOWARDS THE EUROPEAN
SOLUTION...AND LEFT A DRY FORECAST THROUGH WEDNESDAY...WITH
TEMPERATURES WARMING BACK TO NEAR NORMAL HIGHS.
&&

.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&

$$

AVIATION...58







000
FXUS64 KLZK 271131 AAA
AFDLZK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
531 AM CST THU NOV 27 2014

.AVIATION...
MVFR CIGS WILL GRADUALLY DISSIPATE THIS MORNING. NORTHWEST WINDS
WILL BECOME SOUTHEAST AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OFF TO THE EAST.
&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 350 AM CST THU NOV 27 2014/

SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT

CYCLONIC FLOW...ASSOCD WITH UPR LVL STORM SYS ACRS THE LOWER OH
VALLEY REGION...BROUGHT LOW CLOUDS TO NRN AR DURG THE OVERNIGHT HRS.
SOME OF THIS CLOUD COVER HAS DVLPD FURTHER SWD INTO E-CNTRL AR SINCE
MIDNIGHT. EARLY MRNG TEMPS WERE MAINLY IN THE 30S AND LOWER 40S.

SFC HIGH PRES RDG WL BLD INTO AR TODAY...ALLOWING SFC WINDS TO
DIMINISH. FCST MODEL SOUNDINGS INDC THAT THE AFOREMENTIONED LOW
CLOUDS WL ERODE LATER THIS MRNG AS DRIER AIR CONTS TO SETTLE INTO
THE FA. HIGH TEMPS TODAY WILL BE MAINLY IN THE 40S AND LOWER 50S.
COLD READINGS WL BE COMMON TNGT AS THE HIGH EVENTUALLY SHIFTS E OF
THE STATE. SOME OF THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS ACRS NRN AR MAY SEE LOW
TEMPS EARLY TNGT AS LGT S/SELY WINDS RETURN DURG THE LATE NGT HRS.

THE WARMING TREND WL CONT INTO THE WEEKEND AS THE UPR LVL FLOW
PATTERN DE-AMPLIFIES AND BCMS ZONAL ACRS THE SRN STATES. BREEZY
S/SWLY WINDS WL BE COMMON SAT AND SUN AS LOW PRES STRENGTHENS OVR
THE WRN PLAINS STATES. THE GULF OF MEXICO WL ALSO BE OPEN FOR
BUSINESS...WITH LOW CLOUDS EXPECTED TO AFFECT THE REGION BOTH DAYS
ALONG WITH SMALL CHCS OF DRIZZLE AND/OR LGT RAIN.

MODELS RMN IN GOOD AGREEMENT THIS MRNG BY BRINGING A SHALLOW ARCTIC
CDFNT SWD THRU THE PLAINS STATES LATE IN THE WEEKEND. STAYED CLOSER
TO THE SLOWER ECMWF/GEM SOLUTIONS FOR TIMING...AS THE GFS APPEARS
TOO FAST BRINGING THE AIRMASS THRU THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF NW AR SUN
NGT. CONTD WITH 20 TO 30 PERCENT POPS SUN NGT AS SOME LGT RAIN WL
DVLP BEHIND THE FROPA.

LONG TERM...MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY

WILL CONTINUE LOW CHANCE POPS FOR MONDAY...AS MOISTURE RETURNS AHEAD
OF COLD FRONT MOVING SOUTH INTO THE STATE. THE COLD AIR WILL BE
SHALLOW...AND WILL HAVE A TOUGH TIME MOVING THROUGH THE OZARKS. EVEN
SO...THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR LIGHT ICING ACROSS THE FAR NORTH
MONDAY MORNING...BUT DUE TO UNCERTAINTY WITH TEMPERATURES...DID NOT
INCLUDE YET IN THE GRIDS.

THERE IS UNCERTAINTY FOR THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK...AS MODELS DIFFER
ON TIMING OF THE NEXT FRONT. HAVE TRENDED TOWARDS THE EUROPEAN
SOLUTION...AND LEFT A DRY FORECAST THROUGH WEDNESDAY...WITH
TEMPERATURES WARMING BACK TO NEAR NORMAL HIGHS.
&&

.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&

$$

AVIATION...58





000
FXUS64 KLZK 270950
AFDLZK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
350 AM CST THU NOV 27 2014

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT

CYCLONIC FLOW...ASSOCD WITH UPR LVL STORM SYS ACRS THE LOWER OH
VALLEY REGION...BROUGHT LOW CLOUDS TO NRN AR DURG THE OVERNIGHT HRS.
SOME OF THIS CLOUD COVER HAS DVLPD FURTHER SWD INTO E-CNTRL AR SINCE
MIDNIGHT. EARLY MRNG TEMPS WERE MAINLY IN THE 30S AND LOWER 40S.

SFC HIGH PRES RDG WL BLD INTO AR TODAY...ALLOWING SFC WINDS TO
DIMINISH. FCST MODEL SOUNDINGS INDC THAT THE AFOREMENTIONED LOW
CLOUDS WL ERODE LATER THIS MRNG AS DRIER AIR CONTS TO SETTLE INTO
THE FA. HIGH TEMPS TODAY WILL BE MAINLY IN THE 40S AND LOWER 50S.
COLD READINGS WL BE COMMON TNGT AS THE HIGH EVENTUALLY SHIFTS E OF
THE STATE. SOME OF THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS ACRS NRN AR MAY SEE LOW
TEMPS EARLY TNGT AS LGT S/SELY WINDS RETURN DURG THE LATE NGT HRS.

THE WARMING TREND WL CONT INTO THE WEEKEND AS THE UPR LVL FLOW
PATTERN DE-AMPLIFIES AND BCMS ZONAL ACRS THE SRN STATES. BREEZY
S/SWLY WINDS WL BE COMMON SAT AND SUN AS LOW PRES STRENGTHENS OVR
THE WRN PLAINS STATES. THE GULF OF MEXICO WL ALSO BE OPEN FOR
BUSINESS...WITH LOW CLOUDS EXPECTED TO AFFECT THE REGION BOTH DAYS
ALONG WITH SMALL CHCS OF DRIZZLE AND/OR LGT RAIN.

MODELS RMN IN GOOD AGREEMENT THIS MRNG BY BRINGING A SHALLOW ARCTIC
CDFNT SWD THRU THE PLAINS STATES LATE IN THE WEEKEND. STAYED CLOSER
TO THE SLOWER ECMWF/GEM SOLUTIONS FOR TIMING...AS THE GFS APPEARS
TOO FAST BRINGING THE AIRMASS THRU THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF NW AR SUN
NGT. CONTD WITH 20 TO 30 PERCENT POPS SUN NGT AS SOME LGT RAIN WL
DVLP BEHIND THE FROPA.
&&

.LONG TERM...MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY

WILL CONTINUE LOW CHANCE POPS FOR MONDAY...AS MOISTURE RETURNS AHEAD
OF COLD FRONT MOVING SOUTH INTO THE STATE. THE COLD AIR WILL BE
SHALLOW...AND WILL HAVE A TOUGH TIME MOVING THROUGH THE OZARKS. EVEN
SO...THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR LIGHT ICING ACROSS THE FAR NORTH
MONDAY MORNING...BUT DUE TO UNCERTAINTY WITH TEMPERATURES...DID NOT
INCLUDE YET IN THE GRIDS.

THERE IS UNCERTAINTY FOR THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK...AS MODELS DIFFER
ON TIMING OF THE NEXT FRONT. HAVE TRENDED TOWARDS THE EUROPEAN
SOLUTION...AND LEFT A DRY FORECAST THROUGH WEDNESDAY...WITH
TEMPERATURES WARMING BACK TO NEAR NORMAL HIGHS.
&&

.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...44 / LONG TERM...58





000
FXUS64 KLZK 270950
AFDLZK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
350 AM CST THU NOV 27 2014

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT

CYCLONIC FLOW...ASSOCD WITH UPR LVL STORM SYS ACRS THE LOWER OH
VALLEY REGION...BROUGHT LOW CLOUDS TO NRN AR DURG THE OVERNIGHT HRS.
SOME OF THIS CLOUD COVER HAS DVLPD FURTHER SWD INTO E-CNTRL AR SINCE
MIDNIGHT. EARLY MRNG TEMPS WERE MAINLY IN THE 30S AND LOWER 40S.

SFC HIGH PRES RDG WL BLD INTO AR TODAY...ALLOWING SFC WINDS TO
DIMINISH. FCST MODEL SOUNDINGS INDC THAT THE AFOREMENTIONED LOW
CLOUDS WL ERODE LATER THIS MRNG AS DRIER AIR CONTS TO SETTLE INTO
THE FA. HIGH TEMPS TODAY WILL BE MAINLY IN THE 40S AND LOWER 50S.
COLD READINGS WL BE COMMON TNGT AS THE HIGH EVENTUALLY SHIFTS E OF
THE STATE. SOME OF THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS ACRS NRN AR MAY SEE LOW
TEMPS EARLY TNGT AS LGT S/SELY WINDS RETURN DURG THE LATE NGT HRS.

THE WARMING TREND WL CONT INTO THE WEEKEND AS THE UPR LVL FLOW
PATTERN DE-AMPLIFIES AND BCMS ZONAL ACRS THE SRN STATES. BREEZY
S/SWLY WINDS WL BE COMMON SAT AND SUN AS LOW PRES STRENGTHENS OVR
THE WRN PLAINS STATES. THE GULF OF MEXICO WL ALSO BE OPEN FOR
BUSINESS...WITH LOW CLOUDS EXPECTED TO AFFECT THE REGION BOTH DAYS
ALONG WITH SMALL CHCS OF DRIZZLE AND/OR LGT RAIN.

MODELS RMN IN GOOD AGREEMENT THIS MRNG BY BRINGING A SHALLOW ARCTIC
CDFNT SWD THRU THE PLAINS STATES LATE IN THE WEEKEND. STAYED CLOSER
TO THE SLOWER ECMWF/GEM SOLUTIONS FOR TIMING...AS THE GFS APPEARS
TOO FAST BRINGING THE AIRMASS THRU THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF NW AR SUN
NGT. CONTD WITH 20 TO 30 PERCENT POPS SUN NGT AS SOME LGT RAIN WL
DVLP BEHIND THE FROPA.
&&

.LONG TERM...MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY

WILL CONTINUE LOW CHANCE POPS FOR MONDAY...AS MOISTURE RETURNS AHEAD
OF COLD FRONT MOVING SOUTH INTO THE STATE. THE COLD AIR WILL BE
SHALLOW...AND WILL HAVE A TOUGH TIME MOVING THROUGH THE OZARKS. EVEN
SO...THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR LIGHT ICING ACROSS THE FAR NORTH
MONDAY MORNING...BUT DUE TO UNCERTAINTY WITH TEMPERATURES...DID NOT
INCLUDE YET IN THE GRIDS.

THERE IS UNCERTAINTY FOR THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK...AS MODELS DIFFER
ON TIMING OF THE NEXT FRONT. HAVE TRENDED TOWARDS THE EUROPEAN
SOLUTION...AND LEFT A DRY FORECAST THROUGH WEDNESDAY...WITH
TEMPERATURES WARMING BACK TO NEAR NORMAL HIGHS.
&&

.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...44 / LONG TERM...58





000
FXUS64 KLZK 270950
AFDLZK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
350 AM CST THU NOV 27 2014

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT

CYCLONIC FLOW...ASSOCD WITH UPR LVL STORM SYS ACRS THE LOWER OH
VALLEY REGION...BROUGHT LOW CLOUDS TO NRN AR DURG THE OVERNIGHT HRS.
SOME OF THIS CLOUD COVER HAS DVLPD FURTHER SWD INTO E-CNTRL AR SINCE
MIDNIGHT. EARLY MRNG TEMPS WERE MAINLY IN THE 30S AND LOWER 40S.

SFC HIGH PRES RDG WL BLD INTO AR TODAY...ALLOWING SFC WINDS TO
DIMINISH. FCST MODEL SOUNDINGS INDC THAT THE AFOREMENTIONED LOW
CLOUDS WL ERODE LATER THIS MRNG AS DRIER AIR CONTS TO SETTLE INTO
THE FA. HIGH TEMPS TODAY WILL BE MAINLY IN THE 40S AND LOWER 50S.
COLD READINGS WL BE COMMON TNGT AS THE HIGH EVENTUALLY SHIFTS E OF
THE STATE. SOME OF THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS ACRS NRN AR MAY SEE LOW
TEMPS EARLY TNGT AS LGT S/SELY WINDS RETURN DURG THE LATE NGT HRS.

THE WARMING TREND WL CONT INTO THE WEEKEND AS THE UPR LVL FLOW
PATTERN DE-AMPLIFIES AND BCMS ZONAL ACRS THE SRN STATES. BREEZY
S/SWLY WINDS WL BE COMMON SAT AND SUN AS LOW PRES STRENGTHENS OVR
THE WRN PLAINS STATES. THE GULF OF MEXICO WL ALSO BE OPEN FOR
BUSINESS...WITH LOW CLOUDS EXPECTED TO AFFECT THE REGION BOTH DAYS
ALONG WITH SMALL CHCS OF DRIZZLE AND/OR LGT RAIN.

MODELS RMN IN GOOD AGREEMENT THIS MRNG BY BRINGING A SHALLOW ARCTIC
CDFNT SWD THRU THE PLAINS STATES LATE IN THE WEEKEND. STAYED CLOSER
TO THE SLOWER ECMWF/GEM SOLUTIONS FOR TIMING...AS THE GFS APPEARS
TOO FAST BRINGING THE AIRMASS THRU THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF NW AR SUN
NGT. CONTD WITH 20 TO 30 PERCENT POPS SUN NGT AS SOME LGT RAIN WL
DVLP BEHIND THE FROPA.
&&

.LONG TERM...MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY

WILL CONTINUE LOW CHANCE POPS FOR MONDAY...AS MOISTURE RETURNS AHEAD
OF COLD FRONT MOVING SOUTH INTO THE STATE. THE COLD AIR WILL BE
SHALLOW...AND WILL HAVE A TOUGH TIME MOVING THROUGH THE OZARKS. EVEN
SO...THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR LIGHT ICING ACROSS THE FAR NORTH
MONDAY MORNING...BUT DUE TO UNCERTAINTY WITH TEMPERATURES...DID NOT
INCLUDE YET IN THE GRIDS.

THERE IS UNCERTAINTY FOR THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK...AS MODELS DIFFER
ON TIMING OF THE NEXT FRONT. HAVE TRENDED TOWARDS THE EUROPEAN
SOLUTION...AND LEFT A DRY FORECAST THROUGH WEDNESDAY...WITH
TEMPERATURES WARMING BACK TO NEAR NORMAL HIGHS.
&&

.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...44 / LONG TERM...58





000
FXUS64 KLZK 270950
AFDLZK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
350 AM CST THU NOV 27 2014

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT

CYCLONIC FLOW...ASSOCD WITH UPR LVL STORM SYS ACRS THE LOWER OH
VALLEY REGION...BROUGHT LOW CLOUDS TO NRN AR DURG THE OVERNIGHT HRS.
SOME OF THIS CLOUD COVER HAS DVLPD FURTHER SWD INTO E-CNTRL AR SINCE
MIDNIGHT. EARLY MRNG TEMPS WERE MAINLY IN THE 30S AND LOWER 40S.

SFC HIGH PRES RDG WL BLD INTO AR TODAY...ALLOWING SFC WINDS TO
DIMINISH. FCST MODEL SOUNDINGS INDC THAT THE AFOREMENTIONED LOW
CLOUDS WL ERODE LATER THIS MRNG AS DRIER AIR CONTS TO SETTLE INTO
THE FA. HIGH TEMPS TODAY WILL BE MAINLY IN THE 40S AND LOWER 50S.
COLD READINGS WL BE COMMON TNGT AS THE HIGH EVENTUALLY SHIFTS E OF
THE STATE. SOME OF THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS ACRS NRN AR MAY SEE LOW
TEMPS EARLY TNGT AS LGT S/SELY WINDS RETURN DURG THE LATE NGT HRS.

THE WARMING TREND WL CONT INTO THE WEEKEND AS THE UPR LVL FLOW
PATTERN DE-AMPLIFIES AND BCMS ZONAL ACRS THE SRN STATES. BREEZY
S/SWLY WINDS WL BE COMMON SAT AND SUN AS LOW PRES STRENGTHENS OVR
THE WRN PLAINS STATES. THE GULF OF MEXICO WL ALSO BE OPEN FOR
BUSINESS...WITH LOW CLOUDS EXPECTED TO AFFECT THE REGION BOTH DAYS
ALONG WITH SMALL CHCS OF DRIZZLE AND/OR LGT RAIN.

MODELS RMN IN GOOD AGREEMENT THIS MRNG BY BRINGING A SHALLOW ARCTIC
CDFNT SWD THRU THE PLAINS STATES LATE IN THE WEEKEND. STAYED CLOSER
TO THE SLOWER ECMWF/GEM SOLUTIONS FOR TIMING...AS THE GFS APPEARS
TOO FAST BRINGING THE AIRMASS THRU THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF NW AR SUN
NGT. CONTD WITH 20 TO 30 PERCENT POPS SUN NGT AS SOME LGT RAIN WL
DVLP BEHIND THE FROPA.
&&

.LONG TERM...MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY

WILL CONTINUE LOW CHANCE POPS FOR MONDAY...AS MOISTURE RETURNS AHEAD
OF COLD FRONT MOVING SOUTH INTO THE STATE. THE COLD AIR WILL BE
SHALLOW...AND WILL HAVE A TOUGH TIME MOVING THROUGH THE OZARKS. EVEN
SO...THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR LIGHT ICING ACROSS THE FAR NORTH
MONDAY MORNING...BUT DUE TO UNCERTAINTY WITH TEMPERATURES...DID NOT
INCLUDE YET IN THE GRIDS.

THERE IS UNCERTAINTY FOR THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK...AS MODELS DIFFER
ON TIMING OF THE NEXT FRONT. HAVE TRENDED TOWARDS THE EUROPEAN
SOLUTION...AND LEFT A DRY FORECAST THROUGH WEDNESDAY...WITH
TEMPERATURES WARMING BACK TO NEAR NORMAL HIGHS.
&&

.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...44 / LONG TERM...58





000
FXUS64 KLZK 270541 AAA
AFDLZK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
1141 PM CST WED NOV 26 2014

.AVIATION...
MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD FOR MOST
SITES...WITH THE EXCEPTION BEING THE NRN SITES WHERE SOME MVFR CIGS
ARE POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT. NW WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE BY
MIDDAY THU AS SFC HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OVER THE STATE.
&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 235 PM CST WED NOV 26 2014/

DISCUSSION...

THE UPPER SHORTWAVE CONTINUES TO MOVE EAST WITH MUCH OF THE LIGHT
SHOWERS MOVING OUT OF THE STATE. CLOUDS WERE THINNING BEHIND THE
SHORT WAVE...AND BEHIND THE COLD FRONT AS IS PUSHES THROUGH AR.
SOME COLD AIR STRATA CUMULUS WAS FORMING CLOSER TO THE SURFACE LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER NORTHERN MO. ALSO OVER MO SOME PRECIP WAS
NOTED WITH THE SURFACE LOW PRESSURE. TEMPS WERE HELD DOWN IN THE
40S BEFORE THE CLOUDS THINNED AND SOME SUNSHINE ALLOWED TEMPS TO
REACH THE 50S NORTH AND CENTRAL...WHILE THE LOWER 60S IN THE
SOUTH. THIS AFTERNOON THE COLD FRONT WAS JUST TO THE WEST TO KLIT
AND WILL CONTINUE TO GRADUALLY MOVE EAST THROUGH THE STATE. SOUTH
WINDS AT 5 TO 15 MPH AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL SHIFT TO THE SW THEN
W THEN NW BEHIND THE FRONT...AS COLD AIR ADVECTION SETTLES IN OVER
AR.

SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT

THIS AFTERNOON TO EVENING...SOME CLOUDS WILL BE SEEN ESPECIALLY
OVER NORTHERN AND CENTRAL AR...WHILE THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE
STATE...AND THE UPPER TROUGH ALSO MOVES EAST. WINDS WILL BE SOUTH
AHEAD OF THE FRONT...THEN BECOME MORE ELEVATED BEHIND THE FRONT.
OVERNIGHT...THE WINDS WILL GRADUALLY LOWER AND CLOUDS THIN OVER
NORTHERN AREAS. THE UPPER TROUGH CONTINUES TO MOVE EAST THROUGH
THE END OF THE WEEK...AS THE UPPER HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE OVER THE
ROCKIES BUILDS A BIT MORE EAST. NW UPPER FLOW HOLDS INTO THE
REGION...BUT LITTLE SHORT WAVE ENERGY IS SEEN TO AFFECT THE
WEATHER FOR AR. SOME HIGH CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED...AS TEMPERATURES
WARM TO NORMAL...THEN ABOVE NORMAL VALUES HEADING INTO THE
WEEKEND.

LONG TERM...SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY

DEEP SOUTH TO SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW OVER THE WEEKEND WILL HELP WARM
THINGS UP QUITE A BIT OVER ARKANSAS...WITH HIGHS ON SATURDAY PUSHING
70 FOR MUCH OF THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE STATE...AND CLIMBING INTO
THE LOW TO POSSIBLY MID 70S ON SUNDAY. BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION...BEFORE STALLING
AND/OR WASHING OUT MONDAY. THERE IS SOME DISAGREEMENT ABOUT HOW FAR
SOUTH THE BOUNDARY WILL GET...SO HAVE MADE LITTLE IN THE WAY OF
CHANGES FOR THE LONG TERM FORECAST AS A RESULT. WILL KEEP 20-30
PERCENT RAIN CHANCES SUNDAY INTO MONDAY...WITH THE HIGHEST CHANCES
IN THE NORTHEAST AND EASTERN PARTS OF THE FORECAST AREA.

COOLER AIR WILL MOVE IN BEHIND THE FRONT ON MONDAY...KNOCKING HIGHS
DOWN INTO THE MID 40S ACROSS THE NORTH BUT ONLY TO THE LOW 60S IN
THE FAR SOUTH. TEMPS WILL REBOUND SOME ON TUESDAY...AS SOUTHWEST
FLOW DEVELOPS AHEAD OF THE NEXT SYSTEM.
&&

.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&

$$

AVIATION...62




000
FXUS64 KLZK 270541 AAA
AFDLZK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
1141 PM CST WED NOV 26 2014

.AVIATION...
MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD FOR MOST
SITES...WITH THE EXCEPTION BEING THE NRN SITES WHERE SOME MVFR CIGS
ARE POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT. NW WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE BY
MIDDAY THU AS SFC HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OVER THE STATE.
&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 235 PM CST WED NOV 26 2014/

DISCUSSION...

THE UPPER SHORTWAVE CONTINUES TO MOVE EAST WITH MUCH OF THE LIGHT
SHOWERS MOVING OUT OF THE STATE. CLOUDS WERE THINNING BEHIND THE
SHORT WAVE...AND BEHIND THE COLD FRONT AS IS PUSHES THROUGH AR.
SOME COLD AIR STRATA CUMULUS WAS FORMING CLOSER TO THE SURFACE LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER NORTHERN MO. ALSO OVER MO SOME PRECIP WAS
NOTED WITH THE SURFACE LOW PRESSURE. TEMPS WERE HELD DOWN IN THE
40S BEFORE THE CLOUDS THINNED AND SOME SUNSHINE ALLOWED TEMPS TO
REACH THE 50S NORTH AND CENTRAL...WHILE THE LOWER 60S IN THE
SOUTH. THIS AFTERNOON THE COLD FRONT WAS JUST TO THE WEST TO KLIT
AND WILL CONTINUE TO GRADUALLY MOVE EAST THROUGH THE STATE. SOUTH
WINDS AT 5 TO 15 MPH AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL SHIFT TO THE SW THEN
W THEN NW BEHIND THE FRONT...AS COLD AIR ADVECTION SETTLES IN OVER
AR.

SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT

THIS AFTERNOON TO EVENING...SOME CLOUDS WILL BE SEEN ESPECIALLY
OVER NORTHERN AND CENTRAL AR...WHILE THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE
STATE...AND THE UPPER TROUGH ALSO MOVES EAST. WINDS WILL BE SOUTH
AHEAD OF THE FRONT...THEN BECOME MORE ELEVATED BEHIND THE FRONT.
OVERNIGHT...THE WINDS WILL GRADUALLY LOWER AND CLOUDS THIN OVER
NORTHERN AREAS. THE UPPER TROUGH CONTINUES TO MOVE EAST THROUGH
THE END OF THE WEEK...AS THE UPPER HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE OVER THE
ROCKIES BUILDS A BIT MORE EAST. NW UPPER FLOW HOLDS INTO THE
REGION...BUT LITTLE SHORT WAVE ENERGY IS SEEN TO AFFECT THE
WEATHER FOR AR. SOME HIGH CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED...AS TEMPERATURES
WARM TO NORMAL...THEN ABOVE NORMAL VALUES HEADING INTO THE
WEEKEND.

LONG TERM...SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY

DEEP SOUTH TO SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW OVER THE WEEKEND WILL HELP WARM
THINGS UP QUITE A BIT OVER ARKANSAS...WITH HIGHS ON SATURDAY PUSHING
70 FOR MUCH OF THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE STATE...AND CLIMBING INTO
THE LOW TO POSSIBLY MID 70S ON SUNDAY. BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION...BEFORE STALLING
AND/OR WASHING OUT MONDAY. THERE IS SOME DISAGREEMENT ABOUT HOW FAR
SOUTH THE BOUNDARY WILL GET...SO HAVE MADE LITTLE IN THE WAY OF
CHANGES FOR THE LONG TERM FORECAST AS A RESULT. WILL KEEP 20-30
PERCENT RAIN CHANCES SUNDAY INTO MONDAY...WITH THE HIGHEST CHANCES
IN THE NORTHEAST AND EASTERN PARTS OF THE FORECAST AREA.

COOLER AIR WILL MOVE IN BEHIND THE FRONT ON MONDAY...KNOCKING HIGHS
DOWN INTO THE MID 40S ACROSS THE NORTH BUT ONLY TO THE LOW 60S IN
THE FAR SOUTH. TEMPS WILL REBOUND SOME ON TUESDAY...AS SOUTHWEST
FLOW DEVELOPS AHEAD OF THE NEXT SYSTEM.
&&

.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&

$$

AVIATION...62





000
FXUS64 KLZK 262258 AAA
AFDLZK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
458 PM CST WED NOV 26 2014

.DISCUSSION...

UPDATED TO INCLUDE THE 00Z AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW...

&&

.AVIATION...

MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD BE SEEN THROUGH THE PERIOD...THOUGH
SOME MVFR CIGS COULD BE SEEN AT SOME CENTRAL AND NRN SITES LATE
TONIGHT INTO MIDDAY THU. OTHERWISE...THE BREEZY NW WINDS WILL
RELAX SOME TONIGHT...AND ESPECIALLY FOR THE LATTER HALF OF THU.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 235 PM CST WED NOV 26 2014/

DISCUSSION...

THE UPPER SHORTWAVE CONTINUES TO MOVE EAST WITH MUCH OF THE LIGHT
SHOWERS MOVING OUT OF THE STATE. CLOUDS WERE THINNING BEHIND THE
SHORT WAVE...AND BEHIND THE COLD FRONT AS IS PUSHES THROUGH AR.
SOME COLD AIR STRATA CUMULUS WAS FORMING CLOSER TO THE SURFACE LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER NORTHERN MO. ALSO OVER MO SOME PRECIP WAS
NOTED WITH THE SURFACE LOW PRESSURE. TEMPS WERE HELD DOWN IN THE
40S BEFORE THE CLOUDS THINNED AND SOME SUNSHINE ALLOWED TEMPS TO
REACH THE 50S NORTH AND CENTRAL...WHILE THE LOWER 60S IN THE
SOUTH. THIS AFTERNOON THE COLD FRONT WAS JUST TO THE WEST TO KLIT
AND WILL CONTINUE TO GRADUALLY MOVE EAST THROUGH THE STATE. SOUTH
WINDS AT 5 TO 15 MPH AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL SHIFT TO THE SW THEN
W THEN NW BEHIND THE FRONT...AS COLD AIR ADVECTION SETTLES IN OVER
AR.

SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT

THIS AFTERNOON TO EVENING...SOME CLOUDS WILL BE SEEN ESPECIALLY
OVER NORTHERN AND CENTRAL AR...WHILE THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE
STATE...AND THE UPPER TROUGH ALSO MOVES EAST. WINDS WILL BE SOUTH
AHEAD OF THE FRONT...THEN BECOME MORE ELEVATED BEHIND THE FRONT.
OVERNIGHT...THE WINDS WILL GRADUALLY LOWER AND CLOUDS THIN OVER
NORTHERN AREAS. THE UPPER TROUGH CONTINUES TO MOVE EAST THROUGH
THE END OF THE WEEK...AS THE UPPER HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE OVER THE
ROCKIES BUILDS A BIT MORE EAST. NW UPPER FLOW HOLDS INTO THE
REGION...BUT LITTLE SHORT WAVE ENERGY IS SEEN TO AFFECT THE
WEATHER FOR AR. SOME HIGH CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED...AS TEMPERATURES
WARM TO NORMAL...THEN ABOVE NORMAL VALUES HEADING INTO THE
WEEKEND.

LONG TERM...SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY

DEEP SOUTH TO SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW OVER THE WEEKEND WILL HELP WARM
THINGS UP QUITE A BIT OVER ARKANSAS...WITH HIGHS ON SATURDAY PUSHING
70 FOR MUCH OF THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE STATE...AND CLIMBING INTO
THE LOW TO POSSIBLY MID 70S ON SUNDAY. BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION...BEFORE STALLING
AND/OR WASHING OUT MONDAY. THERE IS SOME DISAGREEMENT ABOUT HOW FAR
SOUTH THE BOUNDARY WILL GET...SO HAVE MADE LITTLE IN THE WAY OF
CHANGES FOR THE LONG TERM FORECAST AS A RESULT. WILL KEEP 20-30
PERCENT RAIN CHANCES SUNDAY INTO MONDAY...WITH THE HIGHEST CHANCES
IN THE NORTHEAST AND EASTERN PARTS OF THE FORECAST AREA.

COOLER AIR WILL MOVE IN BEHIND THE FRONT ON MONDAY...KNOCKING HIGHS
DOWN INTO THE MID 40S ACROSS THE NORTH BUT ONLY TO THE LOW 60S IN
THE FAR SOUTH. TEMPS WILL REBOUND SOME ON TUESDAY...AS SOUTHWEST
FLOW DEVELOPS AHEAD OF THE NEXT SYSTEM.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BATESVILLE AR     29  45  30  54 /  10   0   0   0
CAMDEN AR         34  53  33  61 /   0   0   0   0
HARRISON AR       26  45  30  57 /   0   0   0   0
HOT SPRINGS AR    31  52  32  59 /   0   0   0   0
LITTLE ROCK   AR  31  49  30  57 /   0   0   0   0
MONTICELLO AR     34  50  33  59 /   0   0   0   0
MOUNT IDA AR      30  52  33  59 /   0   0   0   0
MOUNTAIN HOME AR  27  44  30  56 /  10   0   0   0
NEWPORT AR        30  45  30  54 /  10   0   0   0
PINE BLUFF AR     32  49  30  58 /   0   0   0   0
RUSSELLVILLE AR   28  49  30  58 /   0   0   0   0
SEARCY AR         29  46  29  55 /   0   0   0   0
STUTTGART AR      31  47  30  56 /   0   0   0   0
&&

.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&

$$


AVIATION...62






000
FXUS64 KLZK 262258 AAA
AFDLZK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
458 PM CST WED NOV 26 2014

.DISCUSSION...

UPDATED TO INCLUDE THE 00Z AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW...

&&

.AVIATION...

MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD BE SEEN THROUGH THE PERIOD...THOUGH
SOME MVFR CIGS COULD BE SEEN AT SOME CENTRAL AND NRN SITES LATE
TONIGHT INTO MIDDAY THU. OTHERWISE...THE BREEZY NW WINDS WILL
RELAX SOME TONIGHT...AND ESPECIALLY FOR THE LATTER HALF OF THU.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 235 PM CST WED NOV 26 2014/

DISCUSSION...

THE UPPER SHORTWAVE CONTINUES TO MOVE EAST WITH MUCH OF THE LIGHT
SHOWERS MOVING OUT OF THE STATE. CLOUDS WERE THINNING BEHIND THE
SHORT WAVE...AND BEHIND THE COLD FRONT AS IS PUSHES THROUGH AR.
SOME COLD AIR STRATA CUMULUS WAS FORMING CLOSER TO THE SURFACE LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER NORTHERN MO. ALSO OVER MO SOME PRECIP WAS
NOTED WITH THE SURFACE LOW PRESSURE. TEMPS WERE HELD DOWN IN THE
40S BEFORE THE CLOUDS THINNED AND SOME SUNSHINE ALLOWED TEMPS TO
REACH THE 50S NORTH AND CENTRAL...WHILE THE LOWER 60S IN THE
SOUTH. THIS AFTERNOON THE COLD FRONT WAS JUST TO THE WEST TO KLIT
AND WILL CONTINUE TO GRADUALLY MOVE EAST THROUGH THE STATE. SOUTH
WINDS AT 5 TO 15 MPH AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL SHIFT TO THE SW THEN
W THEN NW BEHIND THE FRONT...AS COLD AIR ADVECTION SETTLES IN OVER
AR.

SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT

THIS AFTERNOON TO EVENING...SOME CLOUDS WILL BE SEEN ESPECIALLY
OVER NORTHERN AND CENTRAL AR...WHILE THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE
STATE...AND THE UPPER TROUGH ALSO MOVES EAST. WINDS WILL BE SOUTH
AHEAD OF THE FRONT...THEN BECOME MORE ELEVATED BEHIND THE FRONT.
OVERNIGHT...THE WINDS WILL GRADUALLY LOWER AND CLOUDS THIN OVER
NORTHERN AREAS. THE UPPER TROUGH CONTINUES TO MOVE EAST THROUGH
THE END OF THE WEEK...AS THE UPPER HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE OVER THE
ROCKIES BUILDS A BIT MORE EAST. NW UPPER FLOW HOLDS INTO THE
REGION...BUT LITTLE SHORT WAVE ENERGY IS SEEN TO AFFECT THE
WEATHER FOR AR. SOME HIGH CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED...AS TEMPERATURES
WARM TO NORMAL...THEN ABOVE NORMAL VALUES HEADING INTO THE
WEEKEND.

LONG TERM...SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY

DEEP SOUTH TO SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW OVER THE WEEKEND WILL HELP WARM
THINGS UP QUITE A BIT OVER ARKANSAS...WITH HIGHS ON SATURDAY PUSHING
70 FOR MUCH OF THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE STATE...AND CLIMBING INTO
THE LOW TO POSSIBLY MID 70S ON SUNDAY. BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION...BEFORE STALLING
AND/OR WASHING OUT MONDAY. THERE IS SOME DISAGREEMENT ABOUT HOW FAR
SOUTH THE BOUNDARY WILL GET...SO HAVE MADE LITTLE IN THE WAY OF
CHANGES FOR THE LONG TERM FORECAST AS A RESULT. WILL KEEP 20-30
PERCENT RAIN CHANCES SUNDAY INTO MONDAY...WITH THE HIGHEST CHANCES
IN THE NORTHEAST AND EASTERN PARTS OF THE FORECAST AREA.

COOLER AIR WILL MOVE IN BEHIND THE FRONT ON MONDAY...KNOCKING HIGHS
DOWN INTO THE MID 40S ACROSS THE NORTH BUT ONLY TO THE LOW 60S IN
THE FAR SOUTH. TEMPS WILL REBOUND SOME ON TUESDAY...AS SOUTHWEST
FLOW DEVELOPS AHEAD OF THE NEXT SYSTEM.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BATESVILLE AR     29  45  30  54 /  10   0   0   0
CAMDEN AR         34  53  33  61 /   0   0   0   0
HARRISON AR       26  45  30  57 /   0   0   0   0
HOT SPRINGS AR    31  52  32  59 /   0   0   0   0
LITTLE ROCK   AR  31  49  30  57 /   0   0   0   0
MONTICELLO AR     34  50  33  59 /   0   0   0   0
MOUNT IDA AR      30  52  33  59 /   0   0   0   0
MOUNTAIN HOME AR  27  44  30  56 /  10   0   0   0
NEWPORT AR        30  45  30  54 /  10   0   0   0
PINE BLUFF AR     32  49  30  58 /   0   0   0   0
RUSSELLVILLE AR   28  49  30  58 /   0   0   0   0
SEARCY AR         29  46  29  55 /   0   0   0   0
STUTTGART AR      31  47  30  56 /   0   0   0   0
&&

.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&

$$


AVIATION...62





000
FXUS64 KLZK 262035
AFDLZK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
235 PM CST WED NOV 26 2014

.DISCUSSION...

THE UPPER SHORTWAVE CONTINUES TO MOVE EAST WITH MUCH OF THE LIGHT
SHOWERS MOVING OUT OF THE STATE. CLOUDS WERE THINNING BEHIND THE
SHORT WAVE...AND BEHIND THE COLD FRONT AS IS PUSHES THROUGH AR.
SOME COLD AIR STRATA CUMULUS WAS FORMING CLOSER TO THE SURFACE LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER NORTHERN MO. ALSO OVER MO SOME PRECIP WAS
NOTED WITH THE SURFACE LOW PRESSURE. TEMPS WERE HELD DOWN IN THE
40S BEFORE THE CLOUDS THINNED AND SOME SUNSHINE ALLOWED TEMPS TO
REACH THE 50S NORTH AND CENTRAL...WHILE THE LOWER 60S IN THE
SOUTH. THIS AFTERNOON THE COLD FRONT WAS JUST TO THE WEST TO KLIT
AND WILL CONTINUE TO GRADUALLY MOVE EAST THROUGH THE STATE. SOUTH
WINDS AT 5 TO 15 MPH AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL SHIFT TO THE SW THEN
W THEN NW BEHIND THE FRONT...AS COLD AIR ADVECTION SETTLES IN OVER
AR.

&&

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT

THIS AFTERNOON TO EVENING...SOME CLOUDS WILL BE SEEN ESPECIALLY
OVER NORTHERN AND CENTRAL AR...WHILE THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE
STATE...AND THE UPPER TROUGH ALSO MOVES EAST. WINDS WILL BE SOUTH
AHEAD OF THE FRONT...THEN BECOME MORE ELEVATED BEHIND THE FRONT.
OVERNIGHT...THE WINDS WILL GRADUALLY LOWER AND CLOUDS THIN OVER
NORTHERN AREAS. THE UPPER TROUGH CONTINUES TO MOVE EAST THROUGH
THE END OF THE WEEK...AS THE UPPER HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE OVER THE
ROCKIES BUILDS A BIT MORE EAST. NW UPPER FLOW HOLDS INTO THE
REGION...BUT LITTLE SHORT WAVE ENERGY IS SEEN TO AFFECT THE
WEATHER FOR AR. SOME HIGH CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED...AS TEMPERATURES
WARM TO NORMAL...THEN ABOVE NORMAL VALUES HEADING INTO THE
WEEKEND.

&&

.LONG TERM...SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY

DEEP SOUTH TO SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW OVER THE WEEKEND WILL HELP WARM
THINGS UP QUITE A BIT OVER ARKANSAS...WITH HIGHS ON SATURDAY PUSHING
70 FOR MUCH OF THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE STATE...AND CLIMBING INTO
THE LOW TO POSSIBLY MID 70S ON SUNDAY. BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION...BEFORE STALLING
AND/OR WASHING OUT MONDAY. THERE IS SOME DISAGREEMENT ABOUT HOW FAR
SOUTH THE BOUNDARY WILL GET...SO HAVE MADE LITTLE IN THE WAY OF
CHANGES FOR THE LONG TERM FORECAST AS A RESULT. WILL KEEP 20-30
PERCENT RAIN CHANCES SUNDAY INTO MONDAY...WITH THE HIGHEST CHANCES
IN THE NORTHEAST AND EASTERN PARTS OF THE FORECAST AREA.

COOLER AIR WILL MOVE IN BEHIND THE FRONT ON MONDAY...KNOCKING HIGHS
DOWN INTO THE MID 40S ACROSS THE NORTH BUT ONLY TO THE LOW 60S IN
THE FAR SOUTH. TEMPS WILL REBOUND SOME ON TUESDAY...AS SOUTHWEST
FLOW DEVELOPS AHEAD OF THE NEXT SYSTEM.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BATESVILLE AR     29  45  30  54 /  10   0   0   0
CAMDEN AR         34  53  33  61 /   0   0   0   0
HARRISON AR       26  45  30  57 /   0   0   0   0
HOT SPRINGS AR    31  52  32  59 /   0   0   0   0
LITTLE ROCK   AR  31  49  30  57 /   0   0   0   0
MONTICELLO AR     34  50  33  59 /   0   0   0   0
MOUNT IDA AR      30  52  33  60 /   0   0   0   0
MOUNTAIN HOME AR  27  44  30  56 /  10   0   0   0
NEWPORT AR        30  45  30  54 /  10   0   0   0
PINE BLUFF AR     32  49  30  58 /   0   0   0   0
RUSSELLVILLE AR   28  49  30  58 /   0   0   0   0
SEARCY AR         29  46  29  55 /   0   0   0   0
STUTTGART AR      31  47  30  56 /   0   0   0   0
&&

.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...59 / LONG TERM...64





000
FXUS64 KLZK 262035
AFDLZK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
235 PM CST WED NOV 26 2014

.DISCUSSION...

THE UPPER SHORTWAVE CONTINUES TO MOVE EAST WITH MUCH OF THE LIGHT
SHOWERS MOVING OUT OF THE STATE. CLOUDS WERE THINNING BEHIND THE
SHORT WAVE...AND BEHIND THE COLD FRONT AS IS PUSHES THROUGH AR.
SOME COLD AIR STRATA CUMULUS WAS FORMING CLOSER TO THE SURFACE LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER NORTHERN MO. ALSO OVER MO SOME PRECIP WAS
NOTED WITH THE SURFACE LOW PRESSURE. TEMPS WERE HELD DOWN IN THE
40S BEFORE THE CLOUDS THINNED AND SOME SUNSHINE ALLOWED TEMPS TO
REACH THE 50S NORTH AND CENTRAL...WHILE THE LOWER 60S IN THE
SOUTH. THIS AFTERNOON THE COLD FRONT WAS JUST TO THE WEST TO KLIT
AND WILL CONTINUE TO GRADUALLY MOVE EAST THROUGH THE STATE. SOUTH
WINDS AT 5 TO 15 MPH AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL SHIFT TO THE SW THEN
W THEN NW BEHIND THE FRONT...AS COLD AIR ADVECTION SETTLES IN OVER
AR.

&&

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT

THIS AFTERNOON TO EVENING...SOME CLOUDS WILL BE SEEN ESPECIALLY
OVER NORTHERN AND CENTRAL AR...WHILE THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE
STATE...AND THE UPPER TROUGH ALSO MOVES EAST. WINDS WILL BE SOUTH
AHEAD OF THE FRONT...THEN BECOME MORE ELEVATED BEHIND THE FRONT.
OVERNIGHT...THE WINDS WILL GRADUALLY LOWER AND CLOUDS THIN OVER
NORTHERN AREAS. THE UPPER TROUGH CONTINUES TO MOVE EAST THROUGH
THE END OF THE WEEK...AS THE UPPER HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE OVER THE
ROCKIES BUILDS A BIT MORE EAST. NW UPPER FLOW HOLDS INTO THE
REGION...BUT LITTLE SHORT WAVE ENERGY IS SEEN TO AFFECT THE
WEATHER FOR AR. SOME HIGH CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED...AS TEMPERATURES
WARM TO NORMAL...THEN ABOVE NORMAL VALUES HEADING INTO THE
WEEKEND.

&&

.LONG TERM...SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY

DEEP SOUTH TO SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW OVER THE WEEKEND WILL HELP WARM
THINGS UP QUITE A BIT OVER ARKANSAS...WITH HIGHS ON SATURDAY PUSHING
70 FOR MUCH OF THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE STATE...AND CLIMBING INTO
THE LOW TO POSSIBLY MID 70S ON SUNDAY. BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION...BEFORE STALLING
AND/OR WASHING OUT MONDAY. THERE IS SOME DISAGREEMENT ABOUT HOW FAR
SOUTH THE BOUNDARY WILL GET...SO HAVE MADE LITTLE IN THE WAY OF
CHANGES FOR THE LONG TERM FORECAST AS A RESULT. WILL KEEP 20-30
PERCENT RAIN CHANCES SUNDAY INTO MONDAY...WITH THE HIGHEST CHANCES
IN THE NORTHEAST AND EASTERN PARTS OF THE FORECAST AREA.

COOLER AIR WILL MOVE IN BEHIND THE FRONT ON MONDAY...KNOCKING HIGHS
DOWN INTO THE MID 40S ACROSS THE NORTH BUT ONLY TO THE LOW 60S IN
THE FAR SOUTH. TEMPS WILL REBOUND SOME ON TUESDAY...AS SOUTHWEST
FLOW DEVELOPS AHEAD OF THE NEXT SYSTEM.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BATESVILLE AR     29  45  30  54 /  10   0   0   0
CAMDEN AR         34  53  33  61 /   0   0   0   0
HARRISON AR       26  45  30  57 /   0   0   0   0
HOT SPRINGS AR    31  52  32  59 /   0   0   0   0
LITTLE ROCK   AR  31  49  30  57 /   0   0   0   0
MONTICELLO AR     34  50  33  59 /   0   0   0   0
MOUNT IDA AR      30  52  33  60 /   0   0   0   0
MOUNTAIN HOME AR  27  44  30  56 /  10   0   0   0
NEWPORT AR        30  45  30  54 /  10   0   0   0
PINE BLUFF AR     32  49  30  58 /   0   0   0   0
RUSSELLVILLE AR   28  49  30  58 /   0   0   0   0
SEARCY AR         29  46  29  55 /   0   0   0   0
STUTTGART AR      31  47  30  56 /   0   0   0   0
&&

.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...59 / LONG TERM...64





000
FXUS64 KLZK 262035
AFDLZK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
235 PM CST WED NOV 26 2014

.DISCUSSION...

THE UPPER SHORTWAVE CONTINUES TO MOVE EAST WITH MUCH OF THE LIGHT
SHOWERS MOVING OUT OF THE STATE. CLOUDS WERE THINNING BEHIND THE
SHORT WAVE...AND BEHIND THE COLD FRONT AS IS PUSHES THROUGH AR.
SOME COLD AIR STRATA CUMULUS WAS FORMING CLOSER TO THE SURFACE LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER NORTHERN MO. ALSO OVER MO SOME PRECIP WAS
NOTED WITH THE SURFACE LOW PRESSURE. TEMPS WERE HELD DOWN IN THE
40S BEFORE THE CLOUDS THINNED AND SOME SUNSHINE ALLOWED TEMPS TO
REACH THE 50S NORTH AND CENTRAL...WHILE THE LOWER 60S IN THE
SOUTH. THIS AFTERNOON THE COLD FRONT WAS JUST TO THE WEST TO KLIT
AND WILL CONTINUE TO GRADUALLY MOVE EAST THROUGH THE STATE. SOUTH
WINDS AT 5 TO 15 MPH AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL SHIFT TO THE SW THEN
W THEN NW BEHIND THE FRONT...AS COLD AIR ADVECTION SETTLES IN OVER
AR.

&&

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT

THIS AFTERNOON TO EVENING...SOME CLOUDS WILL BE SEEN ESPECIALLY
OVER NORTHERN AND CENTRAL AR...WHILE THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE
STATE...AND THE UPPER TROUGH ALSO MOVES EAST. WINDS WILL BE SOUTH
AHEAD OF THE FRONT...THEN BECOME MORE ELEVATED BEHIND THE FRONT.
OVERNIGHT...THE WINDS WILL GRADUALLY LOWER AND CLOUDS THIN OVER
NORTHERN AREAS. THE UPPER TROUGH CONTINUES TO MOVE EAST THROUGH
THE END OF THE WEEK...AS THE UPPER HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE OVER THE
ROCKIES BUILDS A BIT MORE EAST. NW UPPER FLOW HOLDS INTO THE
REGION...BUT LITTLE SHORT WAVE ENERGY IS SEEN TO AFFECT THE
WEATHER FOR AR. SOME HIGH CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED...AS TEMPERATURES
WARM TO NORMAL...THEN ABOVE NORMAL VALUES HEADING INTO THE
WEEKEND.

&&

.LONG TERM...SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY

DEEP SOUTH TO SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW OVER THE WEEKEND WILL HELP WARM
THINGS UP QUITE A BIT OVER ARKANSAS...WITH HIGHS ON SATURDAY PUSHING
70 FOR MUCH OF THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE STATE...AND CLIMBING INTO
THE LOW TO POSSIBLY MID 70S ON SUNDAY. BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION...BEFORE STALLING
AND/OR WASHING OUT MONDAY. THERE IS SOME DISAGREEMENT ABOUT HOW FAR
SOUTH THE BOUNDARY WILL GET...SO HAVE MADE LITTLE IN THE WAY OF
CHANGES FOR THE LONG TERM FORECAST AS A RESULT. WILL KEEP 20-30
PERCENT RAIN CHANCES SUNDAY INTO MONDAY...WITH THE HIGHEST CHANCES
IN THE NORTHEAST AND EASTERN PARTS OF THE FORECAST AREA.

COOLER AIR WILL MOVE IN BEHIND THE FRONT ON MONDAY...KNOCKING HIGHS
DOWN INTO THE MID 40S ACROSS THE NORTH BUT ONLY TO THE LOW 60S IN
THE FAR SOUTH. TEMPS WILL REBOUND SOME ON TUESDAY...AS SOUTHWEST
FLOW DEVELOPS AHEAD OF THE NEXT SYSTEM.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BATESVILLE AR     29  45  30  54 /  10   0   0   0
CAMDEN AR         34  53  33  61 /   0   0   0   0
HARRISON AR       26  45  30  57 /   0   0   0   0
HOT SPRINGS AR    31  52  32  59 /   0   0   0   0
LITTLE ROCK   AR  31  49  30  57 /   0   0   0   0
MONTICELLO AR     34  50  33  59 /   0   0   0   0
MOUNT IDA AR      30  52  33  60 /   0   0   0   0
MOUNTAIN HOME AR  27  44  30  56 /  10   0   0   0
NEWPORT AR        30  45  30  54 /  10   0   0   0
PINE BLUFF AR     32  49  30  58 /   0   0   0   0
RUSSELLVILLE AR   28  49  30  58 /   0   0   0   0
SEARCY AR         29  46  29  55 /   0   0   0   0
STUTTGART AR      31  47  30  56 /   0   0   0   0
&&

.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...59 / LONG TERM...64





000
FXUS64 KLZK 262035
AFDLZK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
235 PM CST WED NOV 26 2014

.DISCUSSION...

THE UPPER SHORTWAVE CONTINUES TO MOVE EAST WITH MUCH OF THE LIGHT
SHOWERS MOVING OUT OF THE STATE. CLOUDS WERE THINNING BEHIND THE
SHORT WAVE...AND BEHIND THE COLD FRONT AS IS PUSHES THROUGH AR.
SOME COLD AIR STRATA CUMULUS WAS FORMING CLOSER TO THE SURFACE LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER NORTHERN MO. ALSO OVER MO SOME PRECIP WAS
NOTED WITH THE SURFACE LOW PRESSURE. TEMPS WERE HELD DOWN IN THE
40S BEFORE THE CLOUDS THINNED AND SOME SUNSHINE ALLOWED TEMPS TO
REACH THE 50S NORTH AND CENTRAL...WHILE THE LOWER 60S IN THE
SOUTH. THIS AFTERNOON THE COLD FRONT WAS JUST TO THE WEST TO KLIT
AND WILL CONTINUE TO GRADUALLY MOVE EAST THROUGH THE STATE. SOUTH
WINDS AT 5 TO 15 MPH AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL SHIFT TO THE SW THEN
W THEN NW BEHIND THE FRONT...AS COLD AIR ADVECTION SETTLES IN OVER
AR.

&&

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT

THIS AFTERNOON TO EVENING...SOME CLOUDS WILL BE SEEN ESPECIALLY
OVER NORTHERN AND CENTRAL AR...WHILE THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE
STATE...AND THE UPPER TROUGH ALSO MOVES EAST. WINDS WILL BE SOUTH
AHEAD OF THE FRONT...THEN BECOME MORE ELEVATED BEHIND THE FRONT.
OVERNIGHT...THE WINDS WILL GRADUALLY LOWER AND CLOUDS THIN OVER
NORTHERN AREAS. THE UPPER TROUGH CONTINUES TO MOVE EAST THROUGH
THE END OF THE WEEK...AS THE UPPER HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE OVER THE
ROCKIES BUILDS A BIT MORE EAST. NW UPPER FLOW HOLDS INTO THE
REGION...BUT LITTLE SHORT WAVE ENERGY IS SEEN TO AFFECT THE
WEATHER FOR AR. SOME HIGH CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED...AS TEMPERATURES
WARM TO NORMAL...THEN ABOVE NORMAL VALUES HEADING INTO THE
WEEKEND.

&&

.LONG TERM...SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY

DEEP SOUTH TO SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW OVER THE WEEKEND WILL HELP WARM
THINGS UP QUITE A BIT OVER ARKANSAS...WITH HIGHS ON SATURDAY PUSHING
70 FOR MUCH OF THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE STATE...AND CLIMBING INTO
THE LOW TO POSSIBLY MID 70S ON SUNDAY. BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION...BEFORE STALLING
AND/OR WASHING OUT MONDAY. THERE IS SOME DISAGREEMENT ABOUT HOW FAR
SOUTH THE BOUNDARY WILL GET...SO HAVE MADE LITTLE IN THE WAY OF
CHANGES FOR THE LONG TERM FORECAST AS A RESULT. WILL KEEP 20-30
PERCENT RAIN CHANCES SUNDAY INTO MONDAY...WITH THE HIGHEST CHANCES
IN THE NORTHEAST AND EASTERN PARTS OF THE FORECAST AREA.

COOLER AIR WILL MOVE IN BEHIND THE FRONT ON MONDAY...KNOCKING HIGHS
DOWN INTO THE MID 40S ACROSS THE NORTH BUT ONLY TO THE LOW 60S IN
THE FAR SOUTH. TEMPS WILL REBOUND SOME ON TUESDAY...AS SOUTHWEST
FLOW DEVELOPS AHEAD OF THE NEXT SYSTEM.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BATESVILLE AR     29  45  30  54 /  10   0   0   0
CAMDEN AR         34  53  33  61 /   0   0   0   0
HARRISON AR       26  45  30  57 /   0   0   0   0
HOT SPRINGS AR    31  52  32  59 /   0   0   0   0
LITTLE ROCK   AR  31  49  30  57 /   0   0   0   0
MONTICELLO AR     34  50  33  59 /   0   0   0   0
MOUNT IDA AR      30  52  33  60 /   0   0   0   0
MOUNTAIN HOME AR  27  44  30  56 /  10   0   0   0
NEWPORT AR        30  45  30  54 /  10   0   0   0
PINE BLUFF AR     32  49  30  58 /   0   0   0   0
RUSSELLVILLE AR   28  49  30  58 /   0   0   0   0
SEARCY AR         29  46  29  55 /   0   0   0   0
STUTTGART AR      31  47  30  56 /   0   0   0   0
&&

.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...59 / LONG TERM...64





000
FXUS64 KLZK 261759
AFDLZK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
1159 AM CST WED NOV 26 2014

.DISCUSSION...

UPDATED FOR THE 18Z AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

&&

.AVIATION...

SKIES ARE RAPIDLY CLEARING LATE THIS MORNING AND WILL CONTINUE TO
DO SO THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS. HAVE HIGH CLOUDS CLEARING OUT
ACCORDINGLY THROUGH THAT TIME AS AN UPPER DISTURBANCE AND
ASSOCIATED SURFACE COLD FRONT MOVE THROUGH THE AREA.
HOWEVER...WILL MAINTAIN A VFR DECK BETWEEN 4-6K FT AGL AT KHRO
AND KBPK AS VIS SAT IMAGERY SHOWS AN EXPANDING STRATOCU DECK
STREAMING SOUTH THROUGH ERN KANSAS AND WRN MISSOURI. WILL KEEP AN
EYE ON THIS TO SEE IF ANY CTRL OR SRN SITES NEED TO BE AMENDED TO
INCLUDE THESE CIGS...BUT FOR NOW WILL GO WITH SKC THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. WINDS SHOULD ALSO BECOME GUSTY OUT OF THE
WEST AT MOST SITES OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS AND HOLD THERE
THROUGH EARLY EVENING FOR MOST ALL SITES. OTHERWISE THE ONLY OTHER
CONCERN IS THAT MODELS SHOW MVFR CIGS SPREADING SOUTH INTO NRN
SITES OVERNIGHT. THIS SEEMS REASONABLE LOOKING AT OBS IN NRN
MISSOURI SO HAVE INCLUDED THESE AT KHRO AND KBPK BEGINNING AT 06Z
TONIGHT.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 945 AM CST WED NOV 26 2014/

DISCUSSION...

CLOUDS ARE OVERCAST THIS MORNING WITH THE SHORTWAVE AS IT MOVES
THROUGH THE REGION. ONLY VERY SPOTTY LIGHT RAIN HAS BEEN SEEN OVER
NORTHERN AR SO FAR...AND THIS TREND WILL CONTINUE TODAY. ANY RAIN
WILL GRADUALLY MOVE SE TODAY AND EXIT THIS AFTERNOON. FORECAST WILL
ONLY HAVE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF LIGHT RAIN IN THE NE. TEMPS HAVE HELD
AROUND OR ABOVE FREEZING THIS MORNING OVER THE NORTH...AND WILL
AT LEAST WARM TO THE 40S TODAY. THE SURFACE LOW WAS OVER SOUTHERN
IOWA WITH A COLD FRONT SE TO EASTERN KS AND OK THIS MORNING. THE
CLOUDS WILL GRADUALLY MOVE EAST TODAY...WHILE THE COLD FRONT SAGS
THROUGH THE STATE. SOUTH WINDS AT 5 TO 15 MPH AHEAD OF THE FRONT
WILL SHIFT TO THE SW THEN W THEN NW BEHIND THE FRONT...AS COLD AIR
ADVECTION SETTLES IN OVER AR. HIGHS TODAY HAVE BEEN TRIMMED BACK A
BIT IN THE OVERCAST CLOUD AREAS. LATE MORNING UPDATE WILL FINE TUNE
CLOUD COVER AND AFTERNOON HIGHS. TEMPERATURES MAY HAVE TO COME DOWN
A FEW MORE DEGREES IF CLOUDS HOLD MORE. SOME THINNING AND SUNSHINE
IS SEEN OVER EASTERN KS...WESTERN MO AND NORTHEAST OK...AND SOME
SUNSHINE SHOULD MAKE IT TO AR...ALBEIT LATER IN THE AFTERNOON. (59)


PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 340 AM CST WED NOV 26 2014/

SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT

NWLY FLOW ALOFT WL BRING A STRONG SHRTWV SEWD INTO THE REGION TODAY.
MID AND HIGH LVL CLOUDS WL CONT TO INCRS IN ADVANCE OF THIS SYS.
EVEN THOUGH CONDS WL RMN QUITE DRY IN THE LOW LVLS...STILL CANNOT
RULE OUT SOME PTCHY LGT RAIN OVR N-CNTRL AND NERN AR LATER THIS MRNG
AND INTO THE AFTN HRS. CONTD TO FOLLOW THE TRENDS OF THE HIGH RES
MODEL REGARDING TIMING OF RAIN CHCS.

HIGH PRES WL BLD INTO THE NATURAL STATE FOR THE THANKSGIVING HOLIDAY
WITH A QUICK SHOT OF COLDER AIR. THE HIGH WL SHIFT QUICKLY EWD...
ALLOWING SLY WINDS TO RETURN TO THE FA BY FRI. THE RESULTING WARMING
TREND WL EXTEND INTO THE WEEKEND...ALONG WITH THE NWD RETURN TO GULF
MOISTURE. FCST HIGH TEMPS BY SAT WL BE ABT 10 DEGREES ABV NORMAL FOR
THIS TIME OF YEAR.

LONG TERM...SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY

COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION SUNDAY...BEFORE STALLING AND/OR
WASHING OUT MONDAY. THERE IS SOME DISAGREEMENT ABOUT HOW FAR SOUTH
THE BOUNDARY WILL GET...AND HAVE KEPT THE PREVIOUS TREND OF SMALL
RAIN CHANCES SUNDAY INTO MONDAY...THE HIGHEST CHANCES IN THE
NORTHEAST.

AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY SUNDAY...TEMPERATURES WILL WARM CONSIDERABLY
ACROSS SOUTHERN ARKANSAS...WITH READINGS APPROACHING THE MID 70S.
COOLER AIR WILL MOVE IN MONDAY...WITH HIGHS MONDAY IN THE MID 40S
ACROSS THE NORTH. HOWEVER...TEMPS WILL REBOUND SOME ON TUESDAY...AS
SOUTHWEST FLOW DEVELOPS AHEAD OF THE NEXT SYSTEM.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BATESVILLE AR     49  29  45  30 /  20  10   0   0
CAMDEN AR         62  34  53  33 /   0   0   0   0
HARRISON AR       48  26  45  32 /  20   0   0   0
HOT SPRINGS AR    55  31  52  33 /  10   0   0   0
LITTLE ROCK   AR  52  32  49  32 /  10   0   0   0
MONTICELLO AR     61  35  50  33 /   0   0   0   0
MOUNT IDA AR      55  30  52  32 /  10   0   0   0
MOUNTAIN HOME AR  47  27  43  30 /  30  10   0   0
NEWPORT AR        50  30  45  30 /  20  10   0   0
PINE BLUFF AR     58  33  49  32 /  10   0   0   0
RUSSELLVILLE AR   51  28  49  30 /  10   0   0   0
SEARCY AR         51  29  46  29 /  10   0   0   0
STUTTGART AR      55  31  47  31 /  10   0   0   0
&&

.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&

$$


AVIATION...64








000
FXUS64 KLZK 261759
AFDLZK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
1159 AM CST WED NOV 26 2014

.DISCUSSION...

UPDATED FOR THE 18Z AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

&&

.AVIATION...

SKIES ARE RAPIDLY CLEARING LATE THIS MORNING AND WILL CONTINUE TO
DO SO THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS. HAVE HIGH CLOUDS CLEARING OUT
ACCORDINGLY THROUGH THAT TIME AS AN UPPER DISTURBANCE AND
ASSOCIATED SURFACE COLD FRONT MOVE THROUGH THE AREA.
HOWEVER...WILL MAINTAIN A VFR DECK BETWEEN 4-6K FT AGL AT KHRO
AND KBPK AS VIS SAT IMAGERY SHOWS AN EXPANDING STRATOCU DECK
STREAMING SOUTH THROUGH ERN KANSAS AND WRN MISSOURI. WILL KEEP AN
EYE ON THIS TO SEE IF ANY CTRL OR SRN SITES NEED TO BE AMENDED TO
INCLUDE THESE CIGS...BUT FOR NOW WILL GO WITH SKC THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. WINDS SHOULD ALSO BECOME GUSTY OUT OF THE
WEST AT MOST SITES OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS AND HOLD THERE
THROUGH EARLY EVENING FOR MOST ALL SITES. OTHERWISE THE ONLY OTHER
CONCERN IS THAT MODELS SHOW MVFR CIGS SPREADING SOUTH INTO NRN
SITES OVERNIGHT. THIS SEEMS REASONABLE LOOKING AT OBS IN NRN
MISSOURI SO HAVE INCLUDED THESE AT KHRO AND KBPK BEGINNING AT 06Z
TONIGHT.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 945 AM CST WED NOV 26 2014/

DISCUSSION...

CLOUDS ARE OVERCAST THIS MORNING WITH THE SHORTWAVE AS IT MOVES
THROUGH THE REGION. ONLY VERY SPOTTY LIGHT RAIN HAS BEEN SEEN OVER
NORTHERN AR SO FAR...AND THIS TREND WILL CONTINUE TODAY. ANY RAIN
WILL GRADUALLY MOVE SE TODAY AND EXIT THIS AFTERNOON. FORECAST WILL
ONLY HAVE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF LIGHT RAIN IN THE NE. TEMPS HAVE HELD
AROUND OR ABOVE FREEZING THIS MORNING OVER THE NORTH...AND WILL
AT LEAST WARM TO THE 40S TODAY. THE SURFACE LOW WAS OVER SOUTHERN
IOWA WITH A COLD FRONT SE TO EASTERN KS AND OK THIS MORNING. THE
CLOUDS WILL GRADUALLY MOVE EAST TODAY...WHILE THE COLD FRONT SAGS
THROUGH THE STATE. SOUTH WINDS AT 5 TO 15 MPH AHEAD OF THE FRONT
WILL SHIFT TO THE SW THEN W THEN NW BEHIND THE FRONT...AS COLD AIR
ADVECTION SETTLES IN OVER AR. HIGHS TODAY HAVE BEEN TRIMMED BACK A
BIT IN THE OVERCAST CLOUD AREAS. LATE MORNING UPDATE WILL FINE TUNE
CLOUD COVER AND AFTERNOON HIGHS. TEMPERATURES MAY HAVE TO COME DOWN
A FEW MORE DEGREES IF CLOUDS HOLD MORE. SOME THINNING AND SUNSHINE
IS SEEN OVER EASTERN KS...WESTERN MO AND NORTHEAST OK...AND SOME
SUNSHINE SHOULD MAKE IT TO AR...ALBEIT LATER IN THE AFTERNOON. (59)


PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 340 AM CST WED NOV 26 2014/

SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT

NWLY FLOW ALOFT WL BRING A STRONG SHRTWV SEWD INTO THE REGION TODAY.
MID AND HIGH LVL CLOUDS WL CONT TO INCRS IN ADVANCE OF THIS SYS.
EVEN THOUGH CONDS WL RMN QUITE DRY IN THE LOW LVLS...STILL CANNOT
RULE OUT SOME PTCHY LGT RAIN OVR N-CNTRL AND NERN AR LATER THIS MRNG
AND INTO THE AFTN HRS. CONTD TO FOLLOW THE TRENDS OF THE HIGH RES
MODEL REGARDING TIMING OF RAIN CHCS.

HIGH PRES WL BLD INTO THE NATURAL STATE FOR THE THANKSGIVING HOLIDAY
WITH A QUICK SHOT OF COLDER AIR. THE HIGH WL SHIFT QUICKLY EWD...
ALLOWING SLY WINDS TO RETURN TO THE FA BY FRI. THE RESULTING WARMING
TREND WL EXTEND INTO THE WEEKEND...ALONG WITH THE NWD RETURN TO GULF
MOISTURE. FCST HIGH TEMPS BY SAT WL BE ABT 10 DEGREES ABV NORMAL FOR
THIS TIME OF YEAR.

LONG TERM...SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY

COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION SUNDAY...BEFORE STALLING AND/OR
WASHING OUT MONDAY. THERE IS SOME DISAGREEMENT ABOUT HOW FAR SOUTH
THE BOUNDARY WILL GET...AND HAVE KEPT THE PREVIOUS TREND OF SMALL
RAIN CHANCES SUNDAY INTO MONDAY...THE HIGHEST CHANCES IN THE
NORTHEAST.

AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY SUNDAY...TEMPERATURES WILL WARM CONSIDERABLY
ACROSS SOUTHERN ARKANSAS...WITH READINGS APPROACHING THE MID 70S.
COOLER AIR WILL MOVE IN MONDAY...WITH HIGHS MONDAY IN THE MID 40S
ACROSS THE NORTH. HOWEVER...TEMPS WILL REBOUND SOME ON TUESDAY...AS
SOUTHWEST FLOW DEVELOPS AHEAD OF THE NEXT SYSTEM.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BATESVILLE AR     49  29  45  30 /  20  10   0   0
CAMDEN AR         62  34  53  33 /   0   0   0   0
HARRISON AR       48  26  45  32 /  20   0   0   0
HOT SPRINGS AR    55  31  52  33 /  10   0   0   0
LITTLE ROCK   AR  52  32  49  32 /  10   0   0   0
MONTICELLO AR     61  35  50  33 /   0   0   0   0
MOUNT IDA AR      55  30  52  32 /  10   0   0   0
MOUNTAIN HOME AR  47  27  43  30 /  30  10   0   0
NEWPORT AR        50  30  45  30 /  20  10   0   0
PINE BLUFF AR     58  33  49  32 /  10   0   0   0
RUSSELLVILLE AR   51  28  49  30 /  10   0   0   0
SEARCY AR         51  29  46  29 /  10   0   0   0
STUTTGART AR      55  31  47  31 /  10   0   0   0
&&

.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&

$$


AVIATION...64








000
FXUS64 KLZK 261759
AFDLZK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
1159 AM CST WED NOV 26 2014

.DISCUSSION...

UPDATED FOR THE 18Z AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

&&

.AVIATION...

SKIES ARE RAPIDLY CLEARING LATE THIS MORNING AND WILL CONTINUE TO
DO SO THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS. HAVE HIGH CLOUDS CLEARING OUT
ACCORDINGLY THROUGH THAT TIME AS AN UPPER DISTURBANCE AND
ASSOCIATED SURFACE COLD FRONT MOVE THROUGH THE AREA.
HOWEVER...WILL MAINTAIN A VFR DECK BETWEEN 4-6K FT AGL AT KHRO
AND KBPK AS VIS SAT IMAGERY SHOWS AN EXPANDING STRATOCU DECK
STREAMING SOUTH THROUGH ERN KANSAS AND WRN MISSOURI. WILL KEEP AN
EYE ON THIS TO SEE IF ANY CTRL OR SRN SITES NEED TO BE AMENDED TO
INCLUDE THESE CIGS...BUT FOR NOW WILL GO WITH SKC THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. WINDS SHOULD ALSO BECOME GUSTY OUT OF THE
WEST AT MOST SITES OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS AND HOLD THERE
THROUGH EARLY EVENING FOR MOST ALL SITES. OTHERWISE THE ONLY OTHER
CONCERN IS THAT MODELS SHOW MVFR CIGS SPREADING SOUTH INTO NRN
SITES OVERNIGHT. THIS SEEMS REASONABLE LOOKING AT OBS IN NRN
MISSOURI SO HAVE INCLUDED THESE AT KHRO AND KBPK BEGINNING AT 06Z
TONIGHT.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 945 AM CST WED NOV 26 2014/

DISCUSSION...

CLOUDS ARE OVERCAST THIS MORNING WITH THE SHORTWAVE AS IT MOVES
THROUGH THE REGION. ONLY VERY SPOTTY LIGHT RAIN HAS BEEN SEEN OVER
NORTHERN AR SO FAR...AND THIS TREND WILL CONTINUE TODAY. ANY RAIN
WILL GRADUALLY MOVE SE TODAY AND EXIT THIS AFTERNOON. FORECAST WILL
ONLY HAVE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF LIGHT RAIN IN THE NE. TEMPS HAVE HELD
AROUND OR ABOVE FREEZING THIS MORNING OVER THE NORTH...AND WILL
AT LEAST WARM TO THE 40S TODAY. THE SURFACE LOW WAS OVER SOUTHERN
IOWA WITH A COLD FRONT SE TO EASTERN KS AND OK THIS MORNING. THE
CLOUDS WILL GRADUALLY MOVE EAST TODAY...WHILE THE COLD FRONT SAGS
THROUGH THE STATE. SOUTH WINDS AT 5 TO 15 MPH AHEAD OF THE FRONT
WILL SHIFT TO THE SW THEN W THEN NW BEHIND THE FRONT...AS COLD AIR
ADVECTION SETTLES IN OVER AR. HIGHS TODAY HAVE BEEN TRIMMED BACK A
BIT IN THE OVERCAST CLOUD AREAS. LATE MORNING UPDATE WILL FINE TUNE
CLOUD COVER AND AFTERNOON HIGHS. TEMPERATURES MAY HAVE TO COME DOWN
A FEW MORE DEGREES IF CLOUDS HOLD MORE. SOME THINNING AND SUNSHINE
IS SEEN OVER EASTERN KS...WESTERN MO AND NORTHEAST OK...AND SOME
SUNSHINE SHOULD MAKE IT TO AR...ALBEIT LATER IN THE AFTERNOON. (59)


PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 340 AM CST WED NOV 26 2014/

SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT

NWLY FLOW ALOFT WL BRING A STRONG SHRTWV SEWD INTO THE REGION TODAY.
MID AND HIGH LVL CLOUDS WL CONT TO INCRS IN ADVANCE OF THIS SYS.
EVEN THOUGH CONDS WL RMN QUITE DRY IN THE LOW LVLS...STILL CANNOT
RULE OUT SOME PTCHY LGT RAIN OVR N-CNTRL AND NERN AR LATER THIS MRNG
AND INTO THE AFTN HRS. CONTD TO FOLLOW THE TRENDS OF THE HIGH RES
MODEL REGARDING TIMING OF RAIN CHCS.

HIGH PRES WL BLD INTO THE NATURAL STATE FOR THE THANKSGIVING HOLIDAY
WITH A QUICK SHOT OF COLDER AIR. THE HIGH WL SHIFT QUICKLY EWD...
ALLOWING SLY WINDS TO RETURN TO THE FA BY FRI. THE RESULTING WARMING
TREND WL EXTEND INTO THE WEEKEND...ALONG WITH THE NWD RETURN TO GULF
MOISTURE. FCST HIGH TEMPS BY SAT WL BE ABT 10 DEGREES ABV NORMAL FOR
THIS TIME OF YEAR.

LONG TERM...SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY

COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION SUNDAY...BEFORE STALLING AND/OR
WASHING OUT MONDAY. THERE IS SOME DISAGREEMENT ABOUT HOW FAR SOUTH
THE BOUNDARY WILL GET...AND HAVE KEPT THE PREVIOUS TREND OF SMALL
RAIN CHANCES SUNDAY INTO MONDAY...THE HIGHEST CHANCES IN THE
NORTHEAST.

AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY SUNDAY...TEMPERATURES WILL WARM CONSIDERABLY
ACROSS SOUTHERN ARKANSAS...WITH READINGS APPROACHING THE MID 70S.
COOLER AIR WILL MOVE IN MONDAY...WITH HIGHS MONDAY IN THE MID 40S
ACROSS THE NORTH. HOWEVER...TEMPS WILL REBOUND SOME ON TUESDAY...AS
SOUTHWEST FLOW DEVELOPS AHEAD OF THE NEXT SYSTEM.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BATESVILLE AR     49  29  45  30 /  20  10   0   0
CAMDEN AR         62  34  53  33 /   0   0   0   0
HARRISON AR       48  26  45  32 /  20   0   0   0
HOT SPRINGS AR    55  31  52  33 /  10   0   0   0
LITTLE ROCK   AR  52  32  49  32 /  10   0   0   0
MONTICELLO AR     61  35  50  33 /   0   0   0   0
MOUNT IDA AR      55  30  52  32 /  10   0   0   0
MOUNTAIN HOME AR  47  27  43  30 /  30  10   0   0
NEWPORT AR        50  30  45  30 /  20  10   0   0
PINE BLUFF AR     58  33  49  32 /  10   0   0   0
RUSSELLVILLE AR   51  28  49  30 /  10   0   0   0
SEARCY AR         51  29  46  29 /  10   0   0   0
STUTTGART AR      55  31  47  31 /  10   0   0   0
&&

.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&

$$


AVIATION...64








000
FXUS64 KLZK 261759
AFDLZK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
1159 AM CST WED NOV 26 2014

.DISCUSSION...

UPDATED FOR THE 18Z AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

&&

.AVIATION...

SKIES ARE RAPIDLY CLEARING LATE THIS MORNING AND WILL CONTINUE TO
DO SO THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS. HAVE HIGH CLOUDS CLEARING OUT
ACCORDINGLY THROUGH THAT TIME AS AN UPPER DISTURBANCE AND
ASSOCIATED SURFACE COLD FRONT MOVE THROUGH THE AREA.
HOWEVER...WILL MAINTAIN A VFR DECK BETWEEN 4-6K FT AGL AT KHRO
AND KBPK AS VIS SAT IMAGERY SHOWS AN EXPANDING STRATOCU DECK
STREAMING SOUTH THROUGH ERN KANSAS AND WRN MISSOURI. WILL KEEP AN
EYE ON THIS TO SEE IF ANY CTRL OR SRN SITES NEED TO BE AMENDED TO
INCLUDE THESE CIGS...BUT FOR NOW WILL GO WITH SKC THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. WINDS SHOULD ALSO BECOME GUSTY OUT OF THE
WEST AT MOST SITES OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS AND HOLD THERE
THROUGH EARLY EVENING FOR MOST ALL SITES. OTHERWISE THE ONLY OTHER
CONCERN IS THAT MODELS SHOW MVFR CIGS SPREADING SOUTH INTO NRN
SITES OVERNIGHT. THIS SEEMS REASONABLE LOOKING AT OBS IN NRN
MISSOURI SO HAVE INCLUDED THESE AT KHRO AND KBPK BEGINNING AT 06Z
TONIGHT.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 945 AM CST WED NOV 26 2014/

DISCUSSION...

CLOUDS ARE OVERCAST THIS MORNING WITH THE SHORTWAVE AS IT MOVES
THROUGH THE REGION. ONLY VERY SPOTTY LIGHT RAIN HAS BEEN SEEN OVER
NORTHERN AR SO FAR...AND THIS TREND WILL CONTINUE TODAY. ANY RAIN
WILL GRADUALLY MOVE SE TODAY AND EXIT THIS AFTERNOON. FORECAST WILL
ONLY HAVE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF LIGHT RAIN IN THE NE. TEMPS HAVE HELD
AROUND OR ABOVE FREEZING THIS MORNING OVER THE NORTH...AND WILL
AT LEAST WARM TO THE 40S TODAY. THE SURFACE LOW WAS OVER SOUTHERN
IOWA WITH A COLD FRONT SE TO EASTERN KS AND OK THIS MORNING. THE
CLOUDS WILL GRADUALLY MOVE EAST TODAY...WHILE THE COLD FRONT SAGS
THROUGH THE STATE. SOUTH WINDS AT 5 TO 15 MPH AHEAD OF THE FRONT
WILL SHIFT TO THE SW THEN W THEN NW BEHIND THE FRONT...AS COLD AIR
ADVECTION SETTLES IN OVER AR. HIGHS TODAY HAVE BEEN TRIMMED BACK A
BIT IN THE OVERCAST CLOUD AREAS. LATE MORNING UPDATE WILL FINE TUNE
CLOUD COVER AND AFTERNOON HIGHS. TEMPERATURES MAY HAVE TO COME DOWN
A FEW MORE DEGREES IF CLOUDS HOLD MORE. SOME THINNING AND SUNSHINE
IS SEEN OVER EASTERN KS...WESTERN MO AND NORTHEAST OK...AND SOME
SUNSHINE SHOULD MAKE IT TO AR...ALBEIT LATER IN THE AFTERNOON. (59)


PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 340 AM CST WED NOV 26 2014/

SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT

NWLY FLOW ALOFT WL BRING A STRONG SHRTWV SEWD INTO THE REGION TODAY.
MID AND HIGH LVL CLOUDS WL CONT TO INCRS IN ADVANCE OF THIS SYS.
EVEN THOUGH CONDS WL RMN QUITE DRY IN THE LOW LVLS...STILL CANNOT
RULE OUT SOME PTCHY LGT RAIN OVR N-CNTRL AND NERN AR LATER THIS MRNG
AND INTO THE AFTN HRS. CONTD TO FOLLOW THE TRENDS OF THE HIGH RES
MODEL REGARDING TIMING OF RAIN CHCS.

HIGH PRES WL BLD INTO THE NATURAL STATE FOR THE THANKSGIVING HOLIDAY
WITH A QUICK SHOT OF COLDER AIR. THE HIGH WL SHIFT QUICKLY EWD...
ALLOWING SLY WINDS TO RETURN TO THE FA BY FRI. THE RESULTING WARMING
TREND WL EXTEND INTO THE WEEKEND...ALONG WITH THE NWD RETURN TO GULF
MOISTURE. FCST HIGH TEMPS BY SAT WL BE ABT 10 DEGREES ABV NORMAL FOR
THIS TIME OF YEAR.

LONG TERM...SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY

COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION SUNDAY...BEFORE STALLING AND/OR
WASHING OUT MONDAY. THERE IS SOME DISAGREEMENT ABOUT HOW FAR SOUTH
THE BOUNDARY WILL GET...AND HAVE KEPT THE PREVIOUS TREND OF SMALL
RAIN CHANCES SUNDAY INTO MONDAY...THE HIGHEST CHANCES IN THE
NORTHEAST.

AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY SUNDAY...TEMPERATURES WILL WARM CONSIDERABLY
ACROSS SOUTHERN ARKANSAS...WITH READINGS APPROACHING THE MID 70S.
COOLER AIR WILL MOVE IN MONDAY...WITH HIGHS MONDAY IN THE MID 40S
ACROSS THE NORTH. HOWEVER...TEMPS WILL REBOUND SOME ON TUESDAY...AS
SOUTHWEST FLOW DEVELOPS AHEAD OF THE NEXT SYSTEM.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BATESVILLE AR     49  29  45  30 /  20  10   0   0
CAMDEN AR         62  34  53  33 /   0   0   0   0
HARRISON AR       48  26  45  32 /  20   0   0   0
HOT SPRINGS AR    55  31  52  33 /  10   0   0   0
LITTLE ROCK   AR  52  32  49  32 /  10   0   0   0
MONTICELLO AR     61  35  50  33 /   0   0   0   0
MOUNT IDA AR      55  30  52  32 /  10   0   0   0
MOUNTAIN HOME AR  47  27  43  30 /  30  10   0   0
NEWPORT AR        50  30  45  30 /  20  10   0   0
PINE BLUFF AR     58  33  49  32 /  10   0   0   0
RUSSELLVILLE AR   51  28  49  30 /  10   0   0   0
SEARCY AR         51  29  46  29 /  10   0   0   0
STUTTGART AR      55  31  47  31 /  10   0   0   0
&&

.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&

$$


AVIATION...64








000
FXUS64 KLZK 261552 AAB
AFDLZK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
945 AM CST WED NOV 26 2014

.DISCUSSION...

CLOUDS ARE OVERCAST THIS MORNING WITH THE SHORTWAVE AS IT MOVES
THROUGH THE REGION. ONLY VERY SPOTTY LIGHT RAIN HAS BEEN SEEN OVER
NORTHERN AR SO FAR...AND THIS TREND WILL CONTINUE TODAY. ANY RAIN
WILL GRADUALLY MOVE SE TODAY AND EXIT THIS AFTERNOON. FORECAST WILL
ONLY HAVE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF LIGHT RAIN IN THE NE. TEMPS HAVE HELD
AROUND OR ABOVE FREEZING THIS MORNING OVER THE NORTH...AND WILL
AT LEAST WARM TO THE 40S TODAY. THE SURFACE LOW WAS OVER SOUTHERN
IOWA WITH A COLD FRONT SE TO EASTERN KS AND OK THIS MORNING. THE
CLOUDS WILL GRADUALLY MOVE EAST TODAY...WHILE THE COLD FRONT SAGS
THROUGH THE STATE. SOUTH WINDS AT 5 TO 15 MPH AHEAD OF THE FRONT
WILL SHIFT TO THE SW THEN W THEN NW BEHIND THE FRONT...AS COLD AIR
ADVECTION SETTLES IN OVER AR. HIGHS TODAY HAVE BEEN TRIMMED BACK A
BIT IN THE OVERCAST CLOUD AREAS. LATE MORNING UPDATE WILL FINE TUNE
CLOUD COVER AND AFTERNOON HIGHS. TEMPERATURES MAY HAVE TO COME DOWN
A FEW MORE DEGREES IF CLOUDS HOLD MORE. SOME THINNING AND SUNSHINE
IS SEEN OVER EASTERN KS...WESTERN MO AND NORTHEAST OK...AND SOME
SUNSHINE SHOULD MAKE IT TO AR...ALBEIT LATER IN THE AFTERNOON. (59)

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 527 AM CST WED NOV 26 2014/

.AVIATION...

DRY AIR ACROSS MISSOURI IS KEEPING PRECIPITATION FROM REACHING THE
GROUND. HAVE KEPT A TEMPO GROUP IN FOR THIS MORNING FOR THE
NORTHERN SITES. COULD HAVE SLEET MIX IN WITH RAINFALL...BUT ONLY
FOR A BRIEF TIME AND DID NOT INCLUDE IN THE TAFS. BEHIND THE
SYSTEM...STRONG WINDS WILL MOVE IN...AND CONTINUE THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON HOURS. WRAP AROUND MOISTURE WILL BRING CHANCE OF MVFR
CIGS TONIGHT...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE NORTH.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 340 AM CST WED NOV 26 2014/

SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT

NWLY FLOW ALOFT WL BRING A STRONG SHRTWV SEWD INTO THE REGION TODAY.
MID AND HIGH LVL CLOUDS WL CONT TO INCRS IN ADVANCE OF THIS SYS.
EVEN THOUGH CONDS WL RMN QUITE DRY IN THE LOW LVLS...STILL CANNOT
RULE OUT SOME PTCHY LGT RAIN OVR N-CNTRL AND NERN AR LATER THIS MRNG
AND INTO THE AFTN HRS. CONTD TO FOLLOW THE TRENDS OF THE HIGH RES
MODEL REGARDING TIMING OF RAIN CHCS.

HIGH PRES WL BLD INTO THE NATURAL STATE FOR THE THANKSGIVING HOLIDAY
WITH A QUICK SHOT OF COLDER AIR. THE HIGH WL SHIFT QUICKLY EWD...
ALLOWING SLY WINDS TO RETURN TO THE FA BY FRI. THE RESULTING WARMING
TREND WL EXTEND INTO THE WEEKEND...ALONG WITH THE NWD RETURN TO GULF
MOISTURE. FCST HIGH TEMPS BY SAT WL BE ABT 10 DEGREES ABV NORMAL FOR
THIS TIME OF YEAR.

LONG TERM...SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY

COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION SUNDAY...BEFORE STALLING AND/OR
WASHING OUT MONDAY. THERE IS SOME DISAGREEMENT ABOUT HOW FAR SOUTH
THE BOUNDARY WILL GET...AND HAVE KEPT THE PREVIOUS TREND OF SMALL
RAIN CHANCES SUNDAY INTO MONDAY...THE HIGHEST CHANCES IN THE
NORTHEAST.

AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY SUNDAY...TEMPERATURES WILL WARM CONSIDERABLY
ACROSS SOUTHERN ARKANSAS...WITH READINGS APPROACHING THE MID 70S.
COOLER AIR WILL MOVE IN MONDAY...WITH HIGHS MONDAY IN THE MID 40S
ACROSS THE NORTH. HOWEVER...TEMPS WILL REBOUND SOME ON TUESDAY...AS
SOUTHWEST FLOW DEVELOPS AHEAD OF THE NEXT SYSTEM.
&&

.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&

$$

AVIATION...58








000
FXUS64 KLZK 261552 AAB
AFDLZK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
945 AM CST WED NOV 26 2014

.DISCUSSION...

CLOUDS ARE OVERCAST THIS MORNING WITH THE SHORTWAVE AS IT MOVES
THROUGH THE REGION. ONLY VERY SPOTTY LIGHT RAIN HAS BEEN SEEN OVER
NORTHERN AR SO FAR...AND THIS TREND WILL CONTINUE TODAY. ANY RAIN
WILL GRADUALLY MOVE SE TODAY AND EXIT THIS AFTERNOON. FORECAST WILL
ONLY HAVE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF LIGHT RAIN IN THE NE. TEMPS HAVE HELD
AROUND OR ABOVE FREEZING THIS MORNING OVER THE NORTH...AND WILL
AT LEAST WARM TO THE 40S TODAY. THE SURFACE LOW WAS OVER SOUTHERN
IOWA WITH A COLD FRONT SE TO EASTERN KS AND OK THIS MORNING. THE
CLOUDS WILL GRADUALLY MOVE EAST TODAY...WHILE THE COLD FRONT SAGS
THROUGH THE STATE. SOUTH WINDS AT 5 TO 15 MPH AHEAD OF THE FRONT
WILL SHIFT TO THE SW THEN W THEN NW BEHIND THE FRONT...AS COLD AIR
ADVECTION SETTLES IN OVER AR. HIGHS TODAY HAVE BEEN TRIMMED BACK A
BIT IN THE OVERCAST CLOUD AREAS. LATE MORNING UPDATE WILL FINE TUNE
CLOUD COVER AND AFTERNOON HIGHS. TEMPERATURES MAY HAVE TO COME DOWN
A FEW MORE DEGREES IF CLOUDS HOLD MORE. SOME THINNING AND SUNSHINE
IS SEEN OVER EASTERN KS...WESTERN MO AND NORTHEAST OK...AND SOME
SUNSHINE SHOULD MAKE IT TO AR...ALBEIT LATER IN THE AFTERNOON. (59)

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 527 AM CST WED NOV 26 2014/

.AVIATION...

DRY AIR ACROSS MISSOURI IS KEEPING PRECIPITATION FROM REACHING THE
GROUND. HAVE KEPT A TEMPO GROUP IN FOR THIS MORNING FOR THE
NORTHERN SITES. COULD HAVE SLEET MIX IN WITH RAINFALL...BUT ONLY
FOR A BRIEF TIME AND DID NOT INCLUDE IN THE TAFS. BEHIND THE
SYSTEM...STRONG WINDS WILL MOVE IN...AND CONTINUE THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON HOURS. WRAP AROUND MOISTURE WILL BRING CHANCE OF MVFR
CIGS TONIGHT...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE NORTH.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 340 AM CST WED NOV 26 2014/

SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT

NWLY FLOW ALOFT WL BRING A STRONG SHRTWV SEWD INTO THE REGION TODAY.
MID AND HIGH LVL CLOUDS WL CONT TO INCRS IN ADVANCE OF THIS SYS.
EVEN THOUGH CONDS WL RMN QUITE DRY IN THE LOW LVLS...STILL CANNOT
RULE OUT SOME PTCHY LGT RAIN OVR N-CNTRL AND NERN AR LATER THIS MRNG
AND INTO THE AFTN HRS. CONTD TO FOLLOW THE TRENDS OF THE HIGH RES
MODEL REGARDING TIMING OF RAIN CHCS.

HIGH PRES WL BLD INTO THE NATURAL STATE FOR THE THANKSGIVING HOLIDAY
WITH A QUICK SHOT OF COLDER AIR. THE HIGH WL SHIFT QUICKLY EWD...
ALLOWING SLY WINDS TO RETURN TO THE FA BY FRI. THE RESULTING WARMING
TREND WL EXTEND INTO THE WEEKEND...ALONG WITH THE NWD RETURN TO GULF
MOISTURE. FCST HIGH TEMPS BY SAT WL BE ABT 10 DEGREES ABV NORMAL FOR
THIS TIME OF YEAR.

LONG TERM...SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY

COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION SUNDAY...BEFORE STALLING AND/OR
WASHING OUT MONDAY. THERE IS SOME DISAGREEMENT ABOUT HOW FAR SOUTH
THE BOUNDARY WILL GET...AND HAVE KEPT THE PREVIOUS TREND OF SMALL
RAIN CHANCES SUNDAY INTO MONDAY...THE HIGHEST CHANCES IN THE
NORTHEAST.

AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY SUNDAY...TEMPERATURES WILL WARM CONSIDERABLY
ACROSS SOUTHERN ARKANSAS...WITH READINGS APPROACHING THE MID 70S.
COOLER AIR WILL MOVE IN MONDAY...WITH HIGHS MONDAY IN THE MID 40S
ACROSS THE NORTH. HOWEVER...TEMPS WILL REBOUND SOME ON TUESDAY...AS
SOUTHWEST FLOW DEVELOPS AHEAD OF THE NEXT SYSTEM.
&&

.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&

$$

AVIATION...58








000
FXUS64 KLZK 261552 AAB
AFDLZK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
945 AM CST WED NOV 26 2014

.DISCUSSION...

CLOUDS ARE OVERCAST THIS MORNING WITH THE SHORTWAVE AS IT MOVES
THROUGH THE REGION. ONLY VERY SPOTTY LIGHT RAIN HAS BEEN SEEN OVER
NORTHERN AR SO FAR...AND THIS TREND WILL CONTINUE TODAY. ANY RAIN
WILL GRADUALLY MOVE SE TODAY AND EXIT THIS AFTERNOON. FORECAST WILL
ONLY HAVE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF LIGHT RAIN IN THE NE. TEMPS HAVE HELD
AROUND OR ABOVE FREEZING THIS MORNING OVER THE NORTH...AND WILL
AT LEAST WARM TO THE 40S TODAY. THE SURFACE LOW WAS OVER SOUTHERN
IOWA WITH A COLD FRONT SE TO EASTERN KS AND OK THIS MORNING. THE
CLOUDS WILL GRADUALLY MOVE EAST TODAY...WHILE THE COLD FRONT SAGS
THROUGH THE STATE. SOUTH WINDS AT 5 TO 15 MPH AHEAD OF THE FRONT
WILL SHIFT TO THE SW THEN W THEN NW BEHIND THE FRONT...AS COLD AIR
ADVECTION SETTLES IN OVER AR. HIGHS TODAY HAVE BEEN TRIMMED BACK A
BIT IN THE OVERCAST CLOUD AREAS. LATE MORNING UPDATE WILL FINE TUNE
CLOUD COVER AND AFTERNOON HIGHS. TEMPERATURES MAY HAVE TO COME DOWN
A FEW MORE DEGREES IF CLOUDS HOLD MORE. SOME THINNING AND SUNSHINE
IS SEEN OVER EASTERN KS...WESTERN MO AND NORTHEAST OK...AND SOME
SUNSHINE SHOULD MAKE IT TO AR...ALBEIT LATER IN THE AFTERNOON. (59)

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 527 AM CST WED NOV 26 2014/

.AVIATION...

DRY AIR ACROSS MISSOURI IS KEEPING PRECIPITATION FROM REACHING THE
GROUND. HAVE KEPT A TEMPO GROUP IN FOR THIS MORNING FOR THE
NORTHERN SITES. COULD HAVE SLEET MIX IN WITH RAINFALL...BUT ONLY
FOR A BRIEF TIME AND DID NOT INCLUDE IN THE TAFS. BEHIND THE
SYSTEM...STRONG WINDS WILL MOVE IN...AND CONTINUE THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON HOURS. WRAP AROUND MOISTURE WILL BRING CHANCE OF MVFR
CIGS TONIGHT...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE NORTH.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 340 AM CST WED NOV 26 2014/

SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT

NWLY FLOW ALOFT WL BRING A STRONG SHRTWV SEWD INTO THE REGION TODAY.
MID AND HIGH LVL CLOUDS WL CONT TO INCRS IN ADVANCE OF THIS SYS.
EVEN THOUGH CONDS WL RMN QUITE DRY IN THE LOW LVLS...STILL CANNOT
RULE OUT SOME PTCHY LGT RAIN OVR N-CNTRL AND NERN AR LATER THIS MRNG
AND INTO THE AFTN HRS. CONTD TO FOLLOW THE TRENDS OF THE HIGH RES
MODEL REGARDING TIMING OF RAIN CHCS.

HIGH PRES WL BLD INTO THE NATURAL STATE FOR THE THANKSGIVING HOLIDAY
WITH A QUICK SHOT OF COLDER AIR. THE HIGH WL SHIFT QUICKLY EWD...
ALLOWING SLY WINDS TO RETURN TO THE FA BY FRI. THE RESULTING WARMING
TREND WL EXTEND INTO THE WEEKEND...ALONG WITH THE NWD RETURN TO GULF
MOISTURE. FCST HIGH TEMPS BY SAT WL BE ABT 10 DEGREES ABV NORMAL FOR
THIS TIME OF YEAR.

LONG TERM...SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY

COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION SUNDAY...BEFORE STALLING AND/OR
WASHING OUT MONDAY. THERE IS SOME DISAGREEMENT ABOUT HOW FAR SOUTH
THE BOUNDARY WILL GET...AND HAVE KEPT THE PREVIOUS TREND OF SMALL
RAIN CHANCES SUNDAY INTO MONDAY...THE HIGHEST CHANCES IN THE
NORTHEAST.

AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY SUNDAY...TEMPERATURES WILL WARM CONSIDERABLY
ACROSS SOUTHERN ARKANSAS...WITH READINGS APPROACHING THE MID 70S.
COOLER AIR WILL MOVE IN MONDAY...WITH HIGHS MONDAY IN THE MID 40S
ACROSS THE NORTH. HOWEVER...TEMPS WILL REBOUND SOME ON TUESDAY...AS
SOUTHWEST FLOW DEVELOPS AHEAD OF THE NEXT SYSTEM.
&&

.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&

$$

AVIATION...58








000
FXUS64 KLZK 261552 AAB
AFDLZK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
945 AM CST WED NOV 26 2014

.DISCUSSION...

CLOUDS ARE OVERCAST THIS MORNING WITH THE SHORTWAVE AS IT MOVES
THROUGH THE REGION. ONLY VERY SPOTTY LIGHT RAIN HAS BEEN SEEN OVER
NORTHERN AR SO FAR...AND THIS TREND WILL CONTINUE TODAY. ANY RAIN
WILL GRADUALLY MOVE SE TODAY AND EXIT THIS AFTERNOON. FORECAST WILL
ONLY HAVE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF LIGHT RAIN IN THE NE. TEMPS HAVE HELD
AROUND OR ABOVE FREEZING THIS MORNING OVER THE NORTH...AND WILL
AT LEAST WARM TO THE 40S TODAY. THE SURFACE LOW WAS OVER SOUTHERN
IOWA WITH A COLD FRONT SE TO EASTERN KS AND OK THIS MORNING. THE
CLOUDS WILL GRADUALLY MOVE EAST TODAY...WHILE THE COLD FRONT SAGS
THROUGH THE STATE. SOUTH WINDS AT 5 TO 15 MPH AHEAD OF THE FRONT
WILL SHIFT TO THE SW THEN W THEN NW BEHIND THE FRONT...AS COLD AIR
ADVECTION SETTLES IN OVER AR. HIGHS TODAY HAVE BEEN TRIMMED BACK A
BIT IN THE OVERCAST CLOUD AREAS. LATE MORNING UPDATE WILL FINE TUNE
CLOUD COVER AND AFTERNOON HIGHS. TEMPERATURES MAY HAVE TO COME DOWN
A FEW MORE DEGREES IF CLOUDS HOLD MORE. SOME THINNING AND SUNSHINE
IS SEEN OVER EASTERN KS...WESTERN MO AND NORTHEAST OK...AND SOME
SUNSHINE SHOULD MAKE IT TO AR...ALBEIT LATER IN THE AFTERNOON. (59)

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 527 AM CST WED NOV 26 2014/

.AVIATION...

DRY AIR ACROSS MISSOURI IS KEEPING PRECIPITATION FROM REACHING THE
GROUND. HAVE KEPT A TEMPO GROUP IN FOR THIS MORNING FOR THE
NORTHERN SITES. COULD HAVE SLEET MIX IN WITH RAINFALL...BUT ONLY
FOR A BRIEF TIME AND DID NOT INCLUDE IN THE TAFS. BEHIND THE
SYSTEM...STRONG WINDS WILL MOVE IN...AND CONTINUE THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON HOURS. WRAP AROUND MOISTURE WILL BRING CHANCE OF MVFR
CIGS TONIGHT...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE NORTH.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 340 AM CST WED NOV 26 2014/

SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT

NWLY FLOW ALOFT WL BRING A STRONG SHRTWV SEWD INTO THE REGION TODAY.
MID AND HIGH LVL CLOUDS WL CONT TO INCRS IN ADVANCE OF THIS SYS.
EVEN THOUGH CONDS WL RMN QUITE DRY IN THE LOW LVLS...STILL CANNOT
RULE OUT SOME PTCHY LGT RAIN OVR N-CNTRL AND NERN AR LATER THIS MRNG
AND INTO THE AFTN HRS. CONTD TO FOLLOW THE TRENDS OF THE HIGH RES
MODEL REGARDING TIMING OF RAIN CHCS.

HIGH PRES WL BLD INTO THE NATURAL STATE FOR THE THANKSGIVING HOLIDAY
WITH A QUICK SHOT OF COLDER AIR. THE HIGH WL SHIFT QUICKLY EWD...
ALLOWING SLY WINDS TO RETURN TO THE FA BY FRI. THE RESULTING WARMING
TREND WL EXTEND INTO THE WEEKEND...ALONG WITH THE NWD RETURN TO GULF
MOISTURE. FCST HIGH TEMPS BY SAT WL BE ABT 10 DEGREES ABV NORMAL FOR
THIS TIME OF YEAR.

LONG TERM...SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY

COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION SUNDAY...BEFORE STALLING AND/OR
WASHING OUT MONDAY. THERE IS SOME DISAGREEMENT ABOUT HOW FAR SOUTH
THE BOUNDARY WILL GET...AND HAVE KEPT THE PREVIOUS TREND OF SMALL
RAIN CHANCES SUNDAY INTO MONDAY...THE HIGHEST CHANCES IN THE
NORTHEAST.

AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY SUNDAY...TEMPERATURES WILL WARM CONSIDERABLY
ACROSS SOUTHERN ARKANSAS...WITH READINGS APPROACHING THE MID 70S.
COOLER AIR WILL MOVE IN MONDAY...WITH HIGHS MONDAY IN THE MID 40S
ACROSS THE NORTH. HOWEVER...TEMPS WILL REBOUND SOME ON TUESDAY...AS
SOUTHWEST FLOW DEVELOPS AHEAD OF THE NEXT SYSTEM.
&&

.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&

$$

AVIATION...58








000
FXUS64 KLZK 261127 AAA
AFDLZK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
527 AM CST WED NOV 26 2014

.AVIATION...
DRY AIR ACROSS MISSOURI IS KEEPING PRECIPITATION FROM REACHING THE
GROUND. HAVE KEPT A TEMPO GROUP IN FOR THIS MORNING FOR THE
NORTHERN SITES. COULD HAVE SLEET MIX IN WITH RAINFALL...BUT ONLY
FOR A BRIEF TIME AND DID NOT INCLUDE IN THE TAFS. BEHIND THE
SYSTEM...STRONG WINDS WILL MOVE IN...AND CONTINUE THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON HOURS. WRAP AROUND MOISTURE WILL BRING CHANCE OF MVFR
CIGS TONIGHT...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE NORTH.
&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 340 AM CST WED NOV 26 2014/

SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT

NWLY FLOW ALOFT WL BRING A STRONG SHRTWV SEWD INTO THE REGION TODAY.
MID AND HIGH LVL CLOUDS WL CONT TO INCRS IN ADVANCE OF THIS SYS.
EVEN THOUGH CONDS WL RMN QUITE DRY IN THE LOW LVLS...STILL CANNOT
RULE OUT SOME PTCHY LGT RAIN OVR N-CNTRL AND NERN AR LATER THIS MRNG
AND INTO THE AFTN HRS. CONTD TO FOLLOW THE TRENDS OF THE HIGH RES
MODEL REGARDING TIMING OF RAIN CHCS.

HIGH PRES WL BLD INTO THE NATURAL STATE FOR THE THANKSGIVING HOLIDAY
WITH A QUICK SHOT OF COLDER AIR. THE HIGH WL SHIFT QUICKLY EWD...
ALLOWING SLY WINDS TO RETURN TO THE FA BY FRI. THE RESULTING WARMING
TREND WL EXTEND INTO THE WEEKEND...ALONG WITH THE NWD RETURN TO GULF
MOISTURE. FCST HIGH TEMPS BY SAT WL BE ABT 10 DEGREES ABV NORMAL FOR
THIS TIME OF YEAR.

LONG TERM...SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY

COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION SUNDAY...BEFORE STALLING AND/OR
WASHING OUT MONDAY. THERE IS SOME DISAGREEMENT ABOUT HOW FAR SOUTH
THE BOUNDARY WILL GET...AND HAVE KEPT THE PREVIOUS TREND OF SMALL
RAIN CHANCES SUNDAY INTO MONDAY...THE HIGHEST CHANCES IN THE
NORTHEAST.

AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY SUNDAY...TEMPERATURES WILL WARM CONSIDERABLY
ACROSS SOUTHERN ARKANSAS...WITH READINGS APPROACHING THE MID 70S.
COOLER AIR WILL MOVE IN MONDAY...WITH HIGHS MONDAY IN THE MID 40S
ACROSS THE NORTH. HOWEVER...TEMPS WILL REBOUND SOME ON TUESDAY...AS
SOUTHWEST FLOW DEVELOPS AHEAD OF THE NEXT SYSTEM.
&&

.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&

$$

AVIATION...58





000
FXUS64 KLZK 261127 AAA
AFDLZK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
527 AM CST WED NOV 26 2014

.AVIATION...
DRY AIR ACROSS MISSOURI IS KEEPING PRECIPITATION FROM REACHING THE
GROUND. HAVE KEPT A TEMPO GROUP IN FOR THIS MORNING FOR THE
NORTHERN SITES. COULD HAVE SLEET MIX IN WITH RAINFALL...BUT ONLY
FOR A BRIEF TIME AND DID NOT INCLUDE IN THE TAFS. BEHIND THE
SYSTEM...STRONG WINDS WILL MOVE IN...AND CONTINUE THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON HOURS. WRAP AROUND MOISTURE WILL BRING CHANCE OF MVFR
CIGS TONIGHT...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE NORTH.
&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 340 AM CST WED NOV 26 2014/

SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT

NWLY FLOW ALOFT WL BRING A STRONG SHRTWV SEWD INTO THE REGION TODAY.
MID AND HIGH LVL CLOUDS WL CONT TO INCRS IN ADVANCE OF THIS SYS.
EVEN THOUGH CONDS WL RMN QUITE DRY IN THE LOW LVLS...STILL CANNOT
RULE OUT SOME PTCHY LGT RAIN OVR N-CNTRL AND NERN AR LATER THIS MRNG
AND INTO THE AFTN HRS. CONTD TO FOLLOW THE TRENDS OF THE HIGH RES
MODEL REGARDING TIMING OF RAIN CHCS.

HIGH PRES WL BLD INTO THE NATURAL STATE FOR THE THANKSGIVING HOLIDAY
WITH A QUICK SHOT OF COLDER AIR. THE HIGH WL SHIFT QUICKLY EWD...
ALLOWING SLY WINDS TO RETURN TO THE FA BY FRI. THE RESULTING WARMING
TREND WL EXTEND INTO THE WEEKEND...ALONG WITH THE NWD RETURN TO GULF
MOISTURE. FCST HIGH TEMPS BY SAT WL BE ABT 10 DEGREES ABV NORMAL FOR
THIS TIME OF YEAR.

LONG TERM...SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY

COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION SUNDAY...BEFORE STALLING AND/OR
WASHING OUT MONDAY. THERE IS SOME DISAGREEMENT ABOUT HOW FAR SOUTH
THE BOUNDARY WILL GET...AND HAVE KEPT THE PREVIOUS TREND OF SMALL
RAIN CHANCES SUNDAY INTO MONDAY...THE HIGHEST CHANCES IN THE
NORTHEAST.

AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY SUNDAY...TEMPERATURES WILL WARM CONSIDERABLY
ACROSS SOUTHERN ARKANSAS...WITH READINGS APPROACHING THE MID 70S.
COOLER AIR WILL MOVE IN MONDAY...WITH HIGHS MONDAY IN THE MID 40S
ACROSS THE NORTH. HOWEVER...TEMPS WILL REBOUND SOME ON TUESDAY...AS
SOUTHWEST FLOW DEVELOPS AHEAD OF THE NEXT SYSTEM.
&&

.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&

$$

AVIATION...58




000
FXUS64 KLZK 260941
AFDLZK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
340 AM CST WED NOV 26 2014

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT

NWLY FLOW ALOFT WL BRING A STRONG SHRTWV SEWD INTO THE REGION TODAY.
MID AND HIGH LVL CLOUDS WL CONT TO INCRS IN ADVANCE OF THIS SYS.
EVEN THOUGH CONDS WL RMN QUITE DRY IN THE LOW LVLS...STILL CANNOT
RULE OUT SOME PTCHY LGT RAIN OVR N-CNTRL AND NERN AR LATER THIS MRNG
AND INTO THE AFTN HRS. CONTD TO FOLLOW THE TRENDS OF THE HIGH RES
MODEL REGARDING TIMING OF RAIN CHCS.

HIGH PRES WL BLD INTO THE NATURAL STATE FOR THE THANKSGIVING HOLIDAY
WITH A QUICK SHOT OF COLDER AIR. THE HIGH WL SHIFT QUICKLY EWD...
ALLOWING SLY WINDS TO RETURN TO THE FA BY FRI. THE RESULTING WARMING
TREND WL EXTEND INTO THE WEEKEND...ALONG WITH THE NWD RETURN TO GULF
MOISTURE. FCST HIGH TEMPS BY SAT WL BE ABT 10 DEGREES ABV NORMAL FOR
THIS TIME OF YEAR.
&&

.LONG TERM...SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY

COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION SUNDAY...BEFORE STALLING AND/OR
WASHING OUT MONDAY. THERE IS SOME DISAGREEMENT ABOUT HOW FAR SOUTH
THE BOUNDARY WILL GET...AND HAVE KEPT THE PREVIOUS TREND OF SMALL
RAIN CHANCES SUNDAY INTO MONDAY...THE HIGHEST CHANCES IN THE
NORTHEAST.

AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY SUNDAY...TEMPERATURES WILL WARM CONSIDERABLY
ACROSS SOUTHERN ARKANSAS...WITH READINGS APPROACHING THE MID 70S.
COOLER AIR WILL MOVE IN MONDAY...WITH HIGHS MONDAY IN THE MID 40S
ACROSS THE NORTH. HOWEVER...TEMPS WILL REBOUND SOME ON TUESDAY...AS
SOUTHWEST FLOW DEVELOPS AHEAD OF THE NEXT SYSTEM.
&&

.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...44 / LONG TERM...58







000
FXUS64 KLZK 260941
AFDLZK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
340 AM CST WED NOV 26 2014

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT

NWLY FLOW ALOFT WL BRING A STRONG SHRTWV SEWD INTO THE REGION TODAY.
MID AND HIGH LVL CLOUDS WL CONT TO INCRS IN ADVANCE OF THIS SYS.
EVEN THOUGH CONDS WL RMN QUITE DRY IN THE LOW LVLS...STILL CANNOT
RULE OUT SOME PTCHY LGT RAIN OVR N-CNTRL AND NERN AR LATER THIS MRNG
AND INTO THE AFTN HRS. CONTD TO FOLLOW THE TRENDS OF THE HIGH RES
MODEL REGARDING TIMING OF RAIN CHCS.

HIGH PRES WL BLD INTO THE NATURAL STATE FOR THE THANKSGIVING HOLIDAY
WITH A QUICK SHOT OF COLDER AIR. THE HIGH WL SHIFT QUICKLY EWD...
ALLOWING SLY WINDS TO RETURN TO THE FA BY FRI. THE RESULTING WARMING
TREND WL EXTEND INTO THE WEEKEND...ALONG WITH THE NWD RETURN TO GULF
MOISTURE. FCST HIGH TEMPS BY SAT WL BE ABT 10 DEGREES ABV NORMAL FOR
THIS TIME OF YEAR.
&&

.LONG TERM...SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY

COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION SUNDAY...BEFORE STALLING AND/OR
WASHING OUT MONDAY. THERE IS SOME DISAGREEMENT ABOUT HOW FAR SOUTH
THE BOUNDARY WILL GET...AND HAVE KEPT THE PREVIOUS TREND OF SMALL
RAIN CHANCES SUNDAY INTO MONDAY...THE HIGHEST CHANCES IN THE
NORTHEAST.

AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY SUNDAY...TEMPERATURES WILL WARM CONSIDERABLY
ACROSS SOUTHERN ARKANSAS...WITH READINGS APPROACHING THE MID 70S.
COOLER AIR WILL MOVE IN MONDAY...WITH HIGHS MONDAY IN THE MID 40S
ACROSS THE NORTH. HOWEVER...TEMPS WILL REBOUND SOME ON TUESDAY...AS
SOUTHWEST FLOW DEVELOPS AHEAD OF THE NEXT SYSTEM.
&&

.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...44 / LONG TERM...58








000
FXUS64 KLZK 260544 AAA
AFDLZK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
1144 PM CST TUE NOV 25 2014

.AVIATION...
A WEAK STORM SYSTEM WILL PASS JUST NE OF THE STATE ON
WED...WITH MAINLY INCREASED CLOUD COVER THE MAIN IMPACT FOR AR.
HOWEVER..SOME RAIN COULD BE SEEN ACROSS THE FAR NRN AND NERN AREAS
OF THE STATE. AS A RESULT...MENTIONED SOME -RA AT BPK FOR THIS
POTENTIAL. OTHERWISE...EXPECT SOME BREEZY WEST AND NW WINDS WED
BEHIND THIS SYSTEM...WITH VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED. ANY GUSTY WINDS
WILL RELAX SHORTLY AFTER SUNSET WED EVENING.
&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 225 PM CST TUE NOV 25 2014/

DISCUSSION...

MAIN CONCERNS THIS FORECAST CYCLE ARE FIRST TO SECOND PERIOD CHANCES
OF PRECIPITATION...ALSO TYPES...EARLY WEDNESDAY AND ON WEDNESDAY.
ANY SLIGHT CHANCE FOR A WINTRY MIX FAR NORTH. THEN DRY CONDITIONS
WITH A WARM UP.

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE IS CENTERED OVER THE REGION TODAY...WITH COOL
TEMPERATURES AND LIGHT NORTH WINDS. TEMPS WERE IN THE 40S NORTH TO
THE 50S CENTRAL AND SOUTH. THE UPPER TROUGH WAS BOTTOMING OUT
OVER THE EASTERN PLAINS AND WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EAST. UPSTREAM
DO SEE SOME HIGH CLOUDS OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS...ASSOCIATED WITH
A SHORT WAVE THAT WILL AFFECT THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY. THE ATMOSPHERE
IS QUITE DRY WITH SURFACE DEW POINT TEMPS FROM THE TEENS IN THE
NORTH...20S CENTRAL...AND LOWER 30S FAR SOUTH. 12Z KLZK HAD A
PRECIP WATER VALUE OF ONLY 0.16 INCHES...WITH A NW LOW LEVEL FLOW.
THE MID TO HIGH CLOUDS OVER SE AR HAVE CONTINUED TO MOVE EAST AND
THIN AHEAD OF THE UPPER TROUGH.

SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT

TONIGHT CLOUDS WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE FROM THE NW...AS THE UPPER
SHORT WAVE APPROACHES AR...AND A COLD FRONT MAKES PROGRESS
SOUTHEAST. CONDITIONS WILL BE DRY UNTIL AROUND SUNRISE ON
WEDNESDAY WITH SHORT RANGE MODELS SHOWING A LIGHT QPF AREA
ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER SHORT WAVE. DUE TO THE ATMOSPHERE
STARTING OFF QUITE DRY...NOT EXPECTED MUCH PRECIP WITH THE SYSTEM
AND HAVE HELD POPS TO SLIGHT ON WEDNESDAY. AROUND SUNRISE
WEDNESDAY...SOME MORNING LOWS WILL BE CLOSE TO FREEZING...AND THE
ATMOSPHERE COULD COOL A BIT AS ANY PRECIP FALLS THROUGH IT...AND A
VERY LOW CHANCE OF LIGHT RAIN POSSIBLY MIXED WITH SLEET OR SNOW
MAYBE SEEN OVER FAR NORTHERN AR. AT THIS TIME WILL KEEP ALL RAIN
DUE TO UNCERTAINTY. MODELS DO HAVE THE BEST CHANCE OF PRECIP OVER
NORTHERN AR CLOSER TO 18Z...AND SOUNDING DATA IS NOT BULLISH ON
WINTER PRECIP FORECAST. THE SLIGHT CHANCE OF PRECIP MOVES QUICKLY
THROUGH ON WEDNESDAY WITH THE SHORT WAVE AND COLD FRONT BY
EVENING...BREAKING UP CLOUDS AND DRYING OUT THE ATMOSPHERE. WINDS
WILL BE ELEVATED BEHIND THE FRONT ON WEDNESDAY...BUT AT THIS TIME
SPEEDS SHOULD BE 10 TO 20 MPH WITH SOME GUSTS...WHILE STAYING
BELOW LAKE WIND ADVISORY LEVELS. DRY AND COOL WEATHER FOR
WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT. HIGHS WILL BE FROM THE 50S
TO LOWER 60S WEDNESDAY...TO 40S TO 50S THURSDAY...THEN WARMING
FRIDAY. LOWS MAINLY 30S TONIGHT AND THURSDAY NIGHT...20S TO 30S
WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

LONG TERM...FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY

THERE IS NOT MUCH THAT HAS CHANGED FOR THE LONG TERM FORECAST.
THE PERIOD WILL BEGIN WITH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTING EAST OF
THE STATE EARLY FRIDAY...FOLLOWED BY SOUTH TO SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW
FROM THE SURFACE THROUGH SEVERAL THOUSAND FEET ALOFT. WHILE THE
UPPER LEVEL FLOW WILL BE RATHER ZONAL AND NOT AT FIRST GLANCE VERY
SUPPORTIVE OF WARM TEMPERATURES...THE DEEP SOUTHERLY FLOW THAT
WILL BE IN PLACE WILL PUSH AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES WELL INTO THE
60S FOR MOST AREAS BY SATURDAY AND SUNDAY AFTERNOONS. IN FACT...IF
YOU BELIEVE SOME GUIDANCE...MID 70S WILL BE COMMONPLACE FOR THE
SOUTHERN HALF OF THE STATE COME SUNDAY AFTERNOON. DID NOT GO THAT
FAR WITH THE FORECAST YET THOUGH AS WE WILL HAVE TO CONTEND WITH
SOME MORNING CLOUDS BOTH WEEKEND DAYS.

THE WARM-UP WILL NOT LAST LONG HOWEVER AS A FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE
STATE FROM THE NORTH LATE SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY MORNING. RAIN WILL
ACCOMPANY THE FRONT BUT FOR NOW IT LOOKS LIKE THE BEST CHANCES FOR
RAINFALL WILL BE IN THE NORTHEAST PARTS OF THE FORECAST AREA. THE
FRONT WILL COOL TEMPERATURES SLIGHTLY BUT ANOTHER WARM PERIOD LOOKS
TO BE SETTING UP FOR THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
&&

.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&

$$

AVIATION...62




000
FXUS64 KLZK 260544 AAA
AFDLZK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
1144 PM CST TUE NOV 25 2014

.AVIATION...
A WEAK STORM SYSTEM WILL PASS JUST NE OF THE STATE ON
WED...WITH MAINLY INCREASED CLOUD COVER THE MAIN IMPACT FOR AR.
HOWEVER..SOME RAIN COULD BE SEEN ACROSS THE FAR NRN AND NERN AREAS
OF THE STATE. AS A RESULT...MENTIONED SOME -RA AT BPK FOR THIS
POTENTIAL. OTHERWISE...EXPECT SOME BREEZY WEST AND NW WINDS WED
BEHIND THIS SYSTEM...WITH VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED. ANY GUSTY WINDS
WILL RELAX SHORTLY AFTER SUNSET WED EVENING.
&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 225 PM CST TUE NOV 25 2014/

DISCUSSION...

MAIN CONCERNS THIS FORECAST CYCLE ARE FIRST TO SECOND PERIOD CHANCES
OF PRECIPITATION...ALSO TYPES...EARLY WEDNESDAY AND ON WEDNESDAY.
ANY SLIGHT CHANCE FOR A WINTRY MIX FAR NORTH. THEN DRY CONDITIONS
WITH A WARM UP.

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE IS CENTERED OVER THE REGION TODAY...WITH COOL
TEMPERATURES AND LIGHT NORTH WINDS. TEMPS WERE IN THE 40S NORTH TO
THE 50S CENTRAL AND SOUTH. THE UPPER TROUGH WAS BOTTOMING OUT
OVER THE EASTERN PLAINS AND WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EAST. UPSTREAM
DO SEE SOME HIGH CLOUDS OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS...ASSOCIATED WITH
A SHORT WAVE THAT WILL AFFECT THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY. THE ATMOSPHERE
IS QUITE DRY WITH SURFACE DEW POINT TEMPS FROM THE TEENS IN THE
NORTH...20S CENTRAL...AND LOWER 30S FAR SOUTH. 12Z KLZK HAD A
PRECIP WATER VALUE OF ONLY 0.16 INCHES...WITH A NW LOW LEVEL FLOW.
THE MID TO HIGH CLOUDS OVER SE AR HAVE CONTINUED TO MOVE EAST AND
THIN AHEAD OF THE UPPER TROUGH.

SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT

TONIGHT CLOUDS WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE FROM THE NW...AS THE UPPER
SHORT WAVE APPROACHES AR...AND A COLD FRONT MAKES PROGRESS
SOUTHEAST. CONDITIONS WILL BE DRY UNTIL AROUND SUNRISE ON
WEDNESDAY WITH SHORT RANGE MODELS SHOWING A LIGHT QPF AREA
ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER SHORT WAVE. DUE TO THE ATMOSPHERE
STARTING OFF QUITE DRY...NOT EXPECTED MUCH PRECIP WITH THE SYSTEM
AND HAVE HELD POPS TO SLIGHT ON WEDNESDAY. AROUND SUNRISE
WEDNESDAY...SOME MORNING LOWS WILL BE CLOSE TO FREEZING...AND THE
ATMOSPHERE COULD COOL A BIT AS ANY PRECIP FALLS THROUGH IT...AND A
VERY LOW CHANCE OF LIGHT RAIN POSSIBLY MIXED WITH SLEET OR SNOW
MAYBE SEEN OVER FAR NORTHERN AR. AT THIS TIME WILL KEEP ALL RAIN
DUE TO UNCERTAINTY. MODELS DO HAVE THE BEST CHANCE OF PRECIP OVER
NORTHERN AR CLOSER TO 18Z...AND SOUNDING DATA IS NOT BULLISH ON
WINTER PRECIP FORECAST. THE SLIGHT CHANCE OF PRECIP MOVES QUICKLY
THROUGH ON WEDNESDAY WITH THE SHORT WAVE AND COLD FRONT BY
EVENING...BREAKING UP CLOUDS AND DRYING OUT THE ATMOSPHERE. WINDS
WILL BE ELEVATED BEHIND THE FRONT ON WEDNESDAY...BUT AT THIS TIME
SPEEDS SHOULD BE 10 TO 20 MPH WITH SOME GUSTS...WHILE STAYING
BELOW LAKE WIND ADVISORY LEVELS. DRY AND COOL WEATHER FOR
WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT. HIGHS WILL BE FROM THE 50S
TO LOWER 60S WEDNESDAY...TO 40S TO 50S THURSDAY...THEN WARMING
FRIDAY. LOWS MAINLY 30S TONIGHT AND THURSDAY NIGHT...20S TO 30S
WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

LONG TERM...FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY

THERE IS NOT MUCH THAT HAS CHANGED FOR THE LONG TERM FORECAST.
THE PERIOD WILL BEGIN WITH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTING EAST OF
THE STATE EARLY FRIDAY...FOLLOWED BY SOUTH TO SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW
FROM THE SURFACE THROUGH SEVERAL THOUSAND FEET ALOFT. WHILE THE
UPPER LEVEL FLOW WILL BE RATHER ZONAL AND NOT AT FIRST GLANCE VERY
SUPPORTIVE OF WARM TEMPERATURES...THE DEEP SOUTHERLY FLOW THAT
WILL BE IN PLACE WILL PUSH AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES WELL INTO THE
60S FOR MOST AREAS BY SATURDAY AND SUNDAY AFTERNOONS. IN FACT...IF
YOU BELIEVE SOME GUIDANCE...MID 70S WILL BE COMMONPLACE FOR THE
SOUTHERN HALF OF THE STATE COME SUNDAY AFTERNOON. DID NOT GO THAT
FAR WITH THE FORECAST YET THOUGH AS WE WILL HAVE TO CONTEND WITH
SOME MORNING CLOUDS BOTH WEEKEND DAYS.

THE WARM-UP WILL NOT LAST LONG HOWEVER AS A FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE
STATE FROM THE NORTH LATE SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY MORNING. RAIN WILL
ACCOMPANY THE FRONT BUT FOR NOW IT LOOKS LIKE THE BEST CHANCES FOR
RAINFALL WILL BE IN THE NORTHEAST PARTS OF THE FORECAST AREA. THE
FRONT WILL COOL TEMPERATURES SLIGHTLY BUT ANOTHER WARM PERIOD LOOKS
TO BE SETTING UP FOR THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
&&

.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&

$$

AVIATION...62




000
FXUS64 KLZK 260544 AAA
AFDLZK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
1144 PM CST TUE NOV 25 2014

.AVIATION...
A WEAK STORM SYSTEM WILL PASS JUST NE OF THE STATE ON
WED...WITH MAINLY INCREASED CLOUD COVER THE MAIN IMPACT FOR AR.
HOWEVER..SOME RAIN COULD BE SEEN ACROSS THE FAR NRN AND NERN AREAS
OF THE STATE. AS A RESULT...MENTIONED SOME -RA AT BPK FOR THIS
POTENTIAL. OTHERWISE...EXPECT SOME BREEZY WEST AND NW WINDS WED
BEHIND THIS SYSTEM...WITH VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED. ANY GUSTY WINDS
WILL RELAX SHORTLY AFTER SUNSET WED EVENING.
&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 225 PM CST TUE NOV 25 2014/

DISCUSSION...

MAIN CONCERNS THIS FORECAST CYCLE ARE FIRST TO SECOND PERIOD CHANCES
OF PRECIPITATION...ALSO TYPES...EARLY WEDNESDAY AND ON WEDNESDAY.
ANY SLIGHT CHANCE FOR A WINTRY MIX FAR NORTH. THEN DRY CONDITIONS
WITH A WARM UP.

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE IS CENTERED OVER THE REGION TODAY...WITH COOL
TEMPERATURES AND LIGHT NORTH WINDS. TEMPS WERE IN THE 40S NORTH TO
THE 50S CENTRAL AND SOUTH. THE UPPER TROUGH WAS BOTTOMING OUT
OVER THE EASTERN PLAINS AND WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EAST. UPSTREAM
DO SEE SOME HIGH CLOUDS OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS...ASSOCIATED WITH
A SHORT WAVE THAT WILL AFFECT THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY. THE ATMOSPHERE
IS QUITE DRY WITH SURFACE DEW POINT TEMPS FROM THE TEENS IN THE
NORTH...20S CENTRAL...AND LOWER 30S FAR SOUTH. 12Z KLZK HAD A
PRECIP WATER VALUE OF ONLY 0.16 INCHES...WITH A NW LOW LEVEL FLOW.
THE MID TO HIGH CLOUDS OVER SE AR HAVE CONTINUED TO MOVE EAST AND
THIN AHEAD OF THE UPPER TROUGH.

SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT

TONIGHT CLOUDS WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE FROM THE NW...AS THE UPPER
SHORT WAVE APPROACHES AR...AND A COLD FRONT MAKES PROGRESS
SOUTHEAST. CONDITIONS WILL BE DRY UNTIL AROUND SUNRISE ON
WEDNESDAY WITH SHORT RANGE MODELS SHOWING A LIGHT QPF AREA
ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER SHORT WAVE. DUE TO THE ATMOSPHERE
STARTING OFF QUITE DRY...NOT EXPECTED MUCH PRECIP WITH THE SYSTEM
AND HAVE HELD POPS TO SLIGHT ON WEDNESDAY. AROUND SUNRISE
WEDNESDAY...SOME MORNING LOWS WILL BE CLOSE TO FREEZING...AND THE
ATMOSPHERE COULD COOL A BIT AS ANY PRECIP FALLS THROUGH IT...AND A
VERY LOW CHANCE OF LIGHT RAIN POSSIBLY MIXED WITH SLEET OR SNOW
MAYBE SEEN OVER FAR NORTHERN AR. AT THIS TIME WILL KEEP ALL RAIN
DUE TO UNCERTAINTY. MODELS DO HAVE THE BEST CHANCE OF PRECIP OVER
NORTHERN AR CLOSER TO 18Z...AND SOUNDING DATA IS NOT BULLISH ON
WINTER PRECIP FORECAST. THE SLIGHT CHANCE OF PRECIP MOVES QUICKLY
THROUGH ON WEDNESDAY WITH THE SHORT WAVE AND COLD FRONT BY
EVENING...BREAKING UP CLOUDS AND DRYING OUT THE ATMOSPHERE. WINDS
WILL BE ELEVATED BEHIND THE FRONT ON WEDNESDAY...BUT AT THIS TIME
SPEEDS SHOULD BE 10 TO 20 MPH WITH SOME GUSTS...WHILE STAYING
BELOW LAKE WIND ADVISORY LEVELS. DRY AND COOL WEATHER FOR
WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT. HIGHS WILL BE FROM THE 50S
TO LOWER 60S WEDNESDAY...TO 40S TO 50S THURSDAY...THEN WARMING
FRIDAY. LOWS MAINLY 30S TONIGHT AND THURSDAY NIGHT...20S TO 30S
WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

LONG TERM...FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY

THERE IS NOT MUCH THAT HAS CHANGED FOR THE LONG TERM FORECAST.
THE PERIOD WILL BEGIN WITH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTING EAST OF
THE STATE EARLY FRIDAY...FOLLOWED BY SOUTH TO SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW
FROM THE SURFACE THROUGH SEVERAL THOUSAND FEET ALOFT. WHILE THE
UPPER LEVEL FLOW WILL BE RATHER ZONAL AND NOT AT FIRST GLANCE VERY
SUPPORTIVE OF WARM TEMPERATURES...THE DEEP SOUTHERLY FLOW THAT
WILL BE IN PLACE WILL PUSH AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES WELL INTO THE
60S FOR MOST AREAS BY SATURDAY AND SUNDAY AFTERNOONS. IN FACT...IF
YOU BELIEVE SOME GUIDANCE...MID 70S WILL BE COMMONPLACE FOR THE
SOUTHERN HALF OF THE STATE COME SUNDAY AFTERNOON. DID NOT GO THAT
FAR WITH THE FORECAST YET THOUGH AS WE WILL HAVE TO CONTEND WITH
SOME MORNING CLOUDS BOTH WEEKEND DAYS.

THE WARM-UP WILL NOT LAST LONG HOWEVER AS A FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE
STATE FROM THE NORTH LATE SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY MORNING. RAIN WILL
ACCOMPANY THE FRONT BUT FOR NOW IT LOOKS LIKE THE BEST CHANCES FOR
RAINFALL WILL BE IN THE NORTHEAST PARTS OF THE FORECAST AREA. THE
FRONT WILL COOL TEMPERATURES SLIGHTLY BUT ANOTHER WARM PERIOD LOOKS
TO BE SETTING UP FOR THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
&&

.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&

$$

AVIATION...62




000
FXUS64 KLZK 260544 AAA
AFDLZK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
1144 PM CST TUE NOV 25 2014

.AVIATION...
A WEAK STORM SYSTEM WILL PASS JUST NE OF THE STATE ON
WED...WITH MAINLY INCREASED CLOUD COVER THE MAIN IMPACT FOR AR.
HOWEVER..SOME RAIN COULD BE SEEN ACROSS THE FAR NRN AND NERN AREAS
OF THE STATE. AS A RESULT...MENTIONED SOME -RA AT BPK FOR THIS
POTENTIAL. OTHERWISE...EXPECT SOME BREEZY WEST AND NW WINDS WED
BEHIND THIS SYSTEM...WITH VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED. ANY GUSTY WINDS
WILL RELAX SHORTLY AFTER SUNSET WED EVENING.
&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 225 PM CST TUE NOV 25 2014/

DISCUSSION...

MAIN CONCERNS THIS FORECAST CYCLE ARE FIRST TO SECOND PERIOD CHANCES
OF PRECIPITATION...ALSO TYPES...EARLY WEDNESDAY AND ON WEDNESDAY.
ANY SLIGHT CHANCE FOR A WINTRY MIX FAR NORTH. THEN DRY CONDITIONS
WITH A WARM UP.

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE IS CENTERED OVER THE REGION TODAY...WITH COOL
TEMPERATURES AND LIGHT NORTH WINDS. TEMPS WERE IN THE 40S NORTH TO
THE 50S CENTRAL AND SOUTH. THE UPPER TROUGH WAS BOTTOMING OUT
OVER THE EASTERN PLAINS AND WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EAST. UPSTREAM
DO SEE SOME HIGH CLOUDS OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS...ASSOCIATED WITH
A SHORT WAVE THAT WILL AFFECT THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY. THE ATMOSPHERE
IS QUITE DRY WITH SURFACE DEW POINT TEMPS FROM THE TEENS IN THE
NORTH...20S CENTRAL...AND LOWER 30S FAR SOUTH. 12Z KLZK HAD A
PRECIP WATER VALUE OF ONLY 0.16 INCHES...WITH A NW LOW LEVEL FLOW.
THE MID TO HIGH CLOUDS OVER SE AR HAVE CONTINUED TO MOVE EAST AND
THIN AHEAD OF THE UPPER TROUGH.

SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT

TONIGHT CLOUDS WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE FROM THE NW...AS THE UPPER
SHORT WAVE APPROACHES AR...AND A COLD FRONT MAKES PROGRESS
SOUTHEAST. CONDITIONS WILL BE DRY UNTIL AROUND SUNRISE ON
WEDNESDAY WITH SHORT RANGE MODELS SHOWING A LIGHT QPF AREA
ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER SHORT WAVE. DUE TO THE ATMOSPHERE
STARTING OFF QUITE DRY...NOT EXPECTED MUCH PRECIP WITH THE SYSTEM
AND HAVE HELD POPS TO SLIGHT ON WEDNESDAY. AROUND SUNRISE
WEDNESDAY...SOME MORNING LOWS WILL BE CLOSE TO FREEZING...AND THE
ATMOSPHERE COULD COOL A BIT AS ANY PRECIP FALLS THROUGH IT...AND A
VERY LOW CHANCE OF LIGHT RAIN POSSIBLY MIXED WITH SLEET OR SNOW
MAYBE SEEN OVER FAR NORTHERN AR. AT THIS TIME WILL KEEP ALL RAIN
DUE TO UNCERTAINTY. MODELS DO HAVE THE BEST CHANCE OF PRECIP OVER
NORTHERN AR CLOSER TO 18Z...AND SOUNDING DATA IS NOT BULLISH ON
WINTER PRECIP FORECAST. THE SLIGHT CHANCE OF PRECIP MOVES QUICKLY
THROUGH ON WEDNESDAY WITH THE SHORT WAVE AND COLD FRONT BY
EVENING...BREAKING UP CLOUDS AND DRYING OUT THE ATMOSPHERE. WINDS
WILL BE ELEVATED BEHIND THE FRONT ON WEDNESDAY...BUT AT THIS TIME
SPEEDS SHOULD BE 10 TO 20 MPH WITH SOME GUSTS...WHILE STAYING
BELOW LAKE WIND ADVISORY LEVELS. DRY AND COOL WEATHER FOR
WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT. HIGHS WILL BE FROM THE 50S
TO LOWER 60S WEDNESDAY...TO 40S TO 50S THURSDAY...THEN WARMING
FRIDAY. LOWS MAINLY 30S TONIGHT AND THURSDAY NIGHT...20S TO 30S
WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

LONG TERM...FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY

THERE IS NOT MUCH THAT HAS CHANGED FOR THE LONG TERM FORECAST.
THE PERIOD WILL BEGIN WITH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTING EAST OF
THE STATE EARLY FRIDAY...FOLLOWED BY SOUTH TO SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW
FROM THE SURFACE THROUGH SEVERAL THOUSAND FEET ALOFT. WHILE THE
UPPER LEVEL FLOW WILL BE RATHER ZONAL AND NOT AT FIRST GLANCE VERY
SUPPORTIVE OF WARM TEMPERATURES...THE DEEP SOUTHERLY FLOW THAT
WILL BE IN PLACE WILL PUSH AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES WELL INTO THE
60S FOR MOST AREAS BY SATURDAY AND SUNDAY AFTERNOONS. IN FACT...IF
YOU BELIEVE SOME GUIDANCE...MID 70S WILL BE COMMONPLACE FOR THE
SOUTHERN HALF OF THE STATE COME SUNDAY AFTERNOON. DID NOT GO THAT
FAR WITH THE FORECAST YET THOUGH AS WE WILL HAVE TO CONTEND WITH
SOME MORNING CLOUDS BOTH WEEKEND DAYS.

THE WARM-UP WILL NOT LAST LONG HOWEVER AS A FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE
STATE FROM THE NORTH LATE SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY MORNING. RAIN WILL
ACCOMPANY THE FRONT BUT FOR NOW IT LOOKS LIKE THE BEST CHANCES FOR
RAINFALL WILL BE IN THE NORTHEAST PARTS OF THE FORECAST AREA. THE
FRONT WILL COOL TEMPERATURES SLIGHTLY BUT ANOTHER WARM PERIOD LOOKS
TO BE SETTING UP FOR THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
&&

.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&

$$

AVIATION...62




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