Home > Products > State Listing > Arkansas Data
Latest:
 AFDLZK |
  [top]

000
FXUS64 KLZK 020234 AAA
AFDLZK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR AVIATION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
930 PM CDT SAT AUG 1 2015

.AVIATION...

OTHER THAN SOME HIGH CLOUDS...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
TONIGHT/SUNDAY. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE TONIGHT. WINDS
ON SUNDAY WILL VARY FROM SOUTHEAST TO SOUTHWEST AT 5 TO
10 MPH. (46)

&&

.DISCUSSION...

MAIN CONCERNS THIS FORECAST CYCLE ARE A GRADUAL WARM UP OVER THE
NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. THEN TUESDAY TO THE REST OF THE WEEK...A
CHANCE OF CONVECTION ENTERS THE FORECAST...INITIALLY MAINLY OVER
THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE STATE...THEN MOVING MORE SOUTH WEDNESDAY
AND THURSDAY.

THE MILDER AND DRIER AIR MASS WAS OVER AR AND HAS BROUGHT
PLEASANT WEATHER CONDITIONS TODAY. THE UPPER RIDGE HAS MOVED A
BIT MORE TO THE WEST...WHILE SHORT WAVE ENERGY IN THE UPPER NW
FLOW WILL STAY WELL NORTH OF AR. HAVE SEEN SUNNY SKIES WITH TEMPS
IN THE 90S. RH VALUES HAVE BEEN MILDER WITH SURFACE DEW POINT
TEMPS FROM THE LOWER 60S NORTH...MID AND UPPER 60S CENTRAL...AND
AROUND 70 SOUTH.

&&

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT

THE OVERALL DRY PATTERN WITH A GRADUALLY WARMING TREND WILL HOLD
THE REST OF THE WEEKEND AND INTO NEXT WEEK. SHORT WAVE ENERGY IS
EXPECTED TO REMAIN NORTH OF AR UNTIL TUESDAY...WHEN A FRONTAL
BOUNDARY ALSO SAGS SOUTH TO NORTHERN AR...AND A CHANCE OF
CONVECTION IS POSSIBLE. TEMPS WILL WARM TO AT AND ABOVE NORMAL
VALUES EARLY NEXT WEEK. TUESDAY AND ON...WITH CLOUDS AND RAIN
CHANCES TEMPS WILL COME BACK A BIT LOWER THAN NORMAL...ESPECIALLY
OVER NORTHERN AR.

&&

.LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY

NORTHWESTERLY UPPER LEVEL FLOW WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE MID SOUTH
DURING THIS PERIOD. EXPLICIT OUTPUT FROM SEVERAL MEDIUM RANGE
MODEL RUNS INDICATE SOME PULSES OF SHORT WAVE ENERGY TO AFFECT AT
LEAST NORTHERN SECTIONS DURING THIS PERIOD. PRECIPITATION
FORECASTS WILL REFLECT LOWER CONFIDENCE WITH REGARD TO TIMING OF
THESE FEATURES. NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL PREVAIL DURING THIS
PERIOD.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BATESVILLE AR     69  95  72  94 /   0  10   0   0
CAMDEN AR         67  98  69  97 /   0   0   0   0
HARRISON AR       65  92  67  92 /   0  10   0   0
HOT SPRINGS AR    69  95  70  97 /   0   0   0   0
LITTLE ROCK   AR  70  95  72  97 /   0   0   0   0
MONTICELLO AR     69  96  71  97 /   0   0   0   0
MOUNT IDA AR      66  95  68  96 /   0   0   0   0
MOUNTAIN HOME AR  66  93  67  93 /   0  10   0   0
NEWPORT AR        68  93  70  95 /   0   0   0   0
PINE BLUFF AR     69  95  70  97 /   0   0   0   0
RUSSELLVILLE AR   67  95  69  97 /   0  10   0   0
SEARCY AR         68  95  69  96 /   0   0   0   0
STUTTGART AR      69  95  71  96 /   0   0   0   0
&&

.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...59 / LONG TERM...55



000
FXUS64 KLZK 020234 AAA
AFDLZK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR AVIATION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
930 PM CDT SAT AUG 1 2015

.AVIATION...

OTHER THAN SOME HIGH CLOUDS...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
TONIGHT/SUNDAY. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE TONIGHT. WINDS
ON SUNDAY WILL VARY FROM SOUTHEAST TO SOUTHWEST AT 5 TO
10 MPH. (46)

&&

.DISCUSSION...

MAIN CONCERNS THIS FORECAST CYCLE ARE A GRADUAL WARM UP OVER THE
NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. THEN TUESDAY TO THE REST OF THE WEEK...A
CHANCE OF CONVECTION ENTERS THE FORECAST...INITIALLY MAINLY OVER
THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE STATE...THEN MOVING MORE SOUTH WEDNESDAY
AND THURSDAY.

THE MILDER AND DRIER AIR MASS WAS OVER AR AND HAS BROUGHT
PLEASANT WEATHER CONDITIONS TODAY. THE UPPER RIDGE HAS MOVED A
BIT MORE TO THE WEST...WHILE SHORT WAVE ENERGY IN THE UPPER NW
FLOW WILL STAY WELL NORTH OF AR. HAVE SEEN SUNNY SKIES WITH TEMPS
IN THE 90S. RH VALUES HAVE BEEN MILDER WITH SURFACE DEW POINT
TEMPS FROM THE LOWER 60S NORTH...MID AND UPPER 60S CENTRAL...AND
AROUND 70 SOUTH.

&&

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT

THE OVERALL DRY PATTERN WITH A GRADUALLY WARMING TREND WILL HOLD
THE REST OF THE WEEKEND AND INTO NEXT WEEK. SHORT WAVE ENERGY IS
EXPECTED TO REMAIN NORTH OF AR UNTIL TUESDAY...WHEN A FRONTAL
BOUNDARY ALSO SAGS SOUTH TO NORTHERN AR...AND A CHANCE OF
CONVECTION IS POSSIBLE. TEMPS WILL WARM TO AT AND ABOVE NORMAL
VALUES EARLY NEXT WEEK. TUESDAY AND ON...WITH CLOUDS AND RAIN
CHANCES TEMPS WILL COME BACK A BIT LOWER THAN NORMAL...ESPECIALLY
OVER NORTHERN AR.

&&

.LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY

NORTHWESTERLY UPPER LEVEL FLOW WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE MID SOUTH
DURING THIS PERIOD. EXPLICIT OUTPUT FROM SEVERAL MEDIUM RANGE
MODEL RUNS INDICATE SOME PULSES OF SHORT WAVE ENERGY TO AFFECT AT
LEAST NORTHERN SECTIONS DURING THIS PERIOD. PRECIPITATION
FORECASTS WILL REFLECT LOWER CONFIDENCE WITH REGARD TO TIMING OF
THESE FEATURES. NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL PREVAIL DURING THIS
PERIOD.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BATESVILLE AR     69  95  72  94 /   0  10   0   0
CAMDEN AR         67  98  69  97 /   0   0   0   0
HARRISON AR       65  92  67  92 /   0  10   0   0
HOT SPRINGS AR    69  95  70  97 /   0   0   0   0
LITTLE ROCK   AR  70  95  72  97 /   0   0   0   0
MONTICELLO AR     69  96  71  97 /   0   0   0   0
MOUNT IDA AR      66  95  68  96 /   0   0   0   0
MOUNTAIN HOME AR  66  93  67  93 /   0  10   0   0
NEWPORT AR        68  93  70  95 /   0   0   0   0
PINE BLUFF AR     69  95  70  97 /   0   0   0   0
RUSSELLVILLE AR   67  95  69  97 /   0  10   0   0
SEARCY AR         68  95  69  96 /   0   0   0   0
STUTTGART AR      69  95  71  96 /   0   0   0   0
&&

.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...59 / LONG TERM...55




000
FXUS64 KLZK 011933
AFDLZK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
233 PM CDT SAT AUG 1 2015

.DISCUSSION...

MAIN CONCERNS THIS FORECAST CYCLE ARE A GRADUAL WARM UP OVER THE
NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. THEN TUESDAY TO THE REST OF THE WEEK...A
CHANCE OF CONVECTION ENTERS THE FORECAST...INITIALLY MAINLY OVER
THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE STATE...THEN MOVING MORE SOUTH WEDNESDAY
AND THURSDAY.

THE MILDER AND DRIER AIR MASS WAS OVER AR AND HAS BROUGHT
PLEASANT WEATHER CONDITIONS TODAY. THE UPPER RIDGE HAS MOVED A
BIT MORE TO THE WEST...WHILE SHORT WAVE ENERGY IN THE UPPER NW
FLOW WILL STAY WELL NORTH OF AR. HAVE SEEN SUNNY SKIES WITH TEMPS
IN THE 90S. RH VALUES HAVE BEEN MILDER WITH SURFACE DEW POINT
TEMPS FROM THE LOWER 60S NORTH...MID AND UPPER 60S CENTRAL...AND
AROUND 70 SOUTH.

&&

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT

THE OVERALL DRY PATTERN WITH A GRADUALLY WARMING TREND WILL HOLD
THE REST OF THE WEEKEND AND INTO NEXT WEEK. SHORT WAVE ENERGY IS
EXPECTED TO REMAIN NORTH OF AR UNTIL TUESDAY...WHEN A FRONTAL
BOUNDARY ALSO SAGS SOUTH TO NORTHERN AR...AND A CHANCE OF
CONVECTION IS POSSIBLE. TEMPS WILL WARM TO AT AND ABOVE NORMAL
VALUES EARLY NEXT WEEK. TUESDAY AND ON...WITH CLOUDS AND RAIN
CHANCES TEMPS WILL COME BACK A BIT LOWER THAN NORMAL...ESPECIALLY
OVER NORTHERN AR.

&&

.LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY

NORTHWESTERLY UPPER LEVEL FLOW WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE MID SOUTH
DURING THIS PERIOD. EXPLICIT OUTPUT FROM SEVERAL MEDIUM RANGE
MODEL RUNS INDICATE SOME PULSES OF SHORT WAVE ENERGY TO AFFECT AT
LEAST NORTHERN SECTIONS DURING THIS PERIOD. PRECIPITATION
FORECASTS WILL REFLECT LOWER CONFIDENCE WITH REGARD TO TIMING OF
THESE FEATURES. NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL PREVAIL DURING THIS
PERIOD.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BATESVILLE AR     69  95  72  94 /   0  10   0   0
CAMDEN AR         67  98  69  97 /   0   0   0   0
HARRISON AR       65  92  67  92 /   0  10   0   0
HOT SPRINGS AR    69  95  70  97 /   0   0   0   0
LITTLE ROCK   AR  70  95  72  97 /   0   0   0   0
MONTICELLO AR     69  96  71  97 /   0   0   0   0
MOUNT IDA AR      66  95  68  96 /   0   0   0   0
MOUNTAIN HOME AR  66  93  67  93 /   0  10   0   0
NEWPORT AR        68  93  70  95 /   0   0   0   0
PINE BLUFF AR     69  95  70  97 /   0   0   0   0
RUSSELLVILLE AR   67  95  69  97 /   0  10   0   0
SEARCY AR         68  95  69  96 /   0   0   0   0
STUTTGART AR      69  95  71  96 /   0   0   0   0
&&

.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...59 / LONG TERM...55



000
FXUS64 KLZK 011933
AFDLZK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
233 PM CDT SAT AUG 1 2015

.DISCUSSION...

MAIN CONCERNS THIS FORECAST CYCLE ARE A GRADUAL WARM UP OVER THE
NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. THEN TUESDAY TO THE REST OF THE WEEK...A
CHANCE OF CONVECTION ENTERS THE FORECAST...INITIALLY MAINLY OVER
THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE STATE...THEN MOVING MORE SOUTH WEDNESDAY
AND THURSDAY.

THE MILDER AND DRIER AIR MASS WAS OVER AR AND HAS BROUGHT
PLEASANT WEATHER CONDITIONS TODAY. THE UPPER RIDGE HAS MOVED A
BIT MORE TO THE WEST...WHILE SHORT WAVE ENERGY IN THE UPPER NW
FLOW WILL STAY WELL NORTH OF AR. HAVE SEEN SUNNY SKIES WITH TEMPS
IN THE 90S. RH VALUES HAVE BEEN MILDER WITH SURFACE DEW POINT
TEMPS FROM THE LOWER 60S NORTH...MID AND UPPER 60S CENTRAL...AND
AROUND 70 SOUTH.

&&

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT

THE OVERALL DRY PATTERN WITH A GRADUALLY WARMING TREND WILL HOLD
THE REST OF THE WEEKEND AND INTO NEXT WEEK. SHORT WAVE ENERGY IS
EXPECTED TO REMAIN NORTH OF AR UNTIL TUESDAY...WHEN A FRONTAL
BOUNDARY ALSO SAGS SOUTH TO NORTHERN AR...AND A CHANCE OF
CONVECTION IS POSSIBLE. TEMPS WILL WARM TO AT AND ABOVE NORMAL
VALUES EARLY NEXT WEEK. TUESDAY AND ON...WITH CLOUDS AND RAIN
CHANCES TEMPS WILL COME BACK A BIT LOWER THAN NORMAL...ESPECIALLY
OVER NORTHERN AR.

&&

.LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY

NORTHWESTERLY UPPER LEVEL FLOW WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE MID SOUTH
DURING THIS PERIOD. EXPLICIT OUTPUT FROM SEVERAL MEDIUM RANGE
MODEL RUNS INDICATE SOME PULSES OF SHORT WAVE ENERGY TO AFFECT AT
LEAST NORTHERN SECTIONS DURING THIS PERIOD. PRECIPITATION
FORECASTS WILL REFLECT LOWER CONFIDENCE WITH REGARD TO TIMING OF
THESE FEATURES. NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL PREVAIL DURING THIS
PERIOD.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BATESVILLE AR     69  95  72  94 /   0  10   0   0
CAMDEN AR         67  98  69  97 /   0   0   0   0
HARRISON AR       65  92  67  92 /   0  10   0   0
HOT SPRINGS AR    69  95  70  97 /   0   0   0   0
LITTLE ROCK   AR  70  95  72  97 /   0   0   0   0
MONTICELLO AR     69  96  71  97 /   0   0   0   0
MOUNT IDA AR      66  95  68  96 /   0   0   0   0
MOUNTAIN HOME AR  66  93  67  93 /   0  10   0   0
NEWPORT AR        68  93  70  95 /   0   0   0   0
PINE BLUFF AR     69  95  70  97 /   0   0   0   0
RUSSELLVILLE AR   67  95  69  97 /   0  10   0   0
SEARCY AR         68  95  69  96 /   0   0   0   0
STUTTGART AR      69  95  71  96 /   0   0   0   0
&&

.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...59 / LONG TERM...55




000
FXUS64 KLZK 011720
AFDLZK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
1220 PM CDT SAT AUG 1 2015

.AVIATION...
EXPECT A FEW...VERY LOCALIZED AREAS OF IFR CONDITIONS DUE TO
FOG...IN FAVORED AREAS LATE TONIGHT. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
CENTERED NEAR BATESVILLE WILL PROMOTE LIGHT AND VARIABLE FLOW
THROUGH THE PERIOD.

55

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1040 AM CDT SAT AUG 1 2015/

DISCUSSION...

OVERALL FORECAST ON TRACK. THE MILDER AND DRIER AIR MASS IS OVER AR
AND HAS BROUGHT PLEASANT WEATHER CONDITIONS. THE UPPER RIDGE HAS
MOVED A BIT MORE TO THE WEST...WHILE SHORT WAVE ENERGY IN THE UPPER
NW FLOW WILL STAY WELL NORTH OF AR TODAY. THEREFORE EXPECT A SUNNY
AND WARM DAY WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO MID 90S...WHILE RH VALUES
MILDER WITH SURFACE DEW POINT TEMPS FROM THE LOWER 60S NORTH...MID
AND UPPER 60S CENTRAL...AND AROUND 70 SOUTH. LATE MORNING UPDATE
WILL ONLY FINE TUNE A FEW ELEMENTS WITH NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO
FORECAST. (59)

PREV DISCUSSION.../ ISSUED 627 AM CDT SAT AUG 1 2015/

AVIATION...
HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES OVER THE AREA THIS MORNING. PATCHY FOG IS
NOTED AT BPK AND ADF WITH LIFR CONDITIONS...BUT WILL BURN OFF
QUICKLY. SCATTERED HIGH CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE DAY WITH
LIGHT EAST WINDS. VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE FOR MUCH OF THE
PERIOD.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 350 AM CDT SAT AUG 1 2015/

SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT

AN AREA OF HIGH CLOUD DEBRIS CONTD TO WORK SEWD ACRS AR LAST NGT AND
EARLY THIS MRNG...ASSOCD WITH CONVECTION THAT OCCURRED IN THE PLAINS
ON FRI. MEANWHILE...SFC HIGH PRES RMND SITUATED ACRS SRN MO AND NWRN
AR...PROVIDING A LGT NELY WIND FLOW OVR THE FA.

THE AFOREMENTIONED SFC HIGH WL MEANDER OVR THE NATURAL STATE THRU
THE WEEKEND...RESULTING IN A STAGNANT WX PATTERN. CONDS TODAY WL BE
SIMILAR TO FRI REGARDING TEMPS...WITH HIGHS MAINLY IN THE LOWER AND
MID 90S. READINGS WL BE A FEW DEGREES WARMER ON SUN AS THE SFC HIGH
SLIPS SWD AND WINDS TAKE ON MORE OF A SWLY COMPONENT. THE GRADUAL
WARMING TREND WL CONT INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...ALONG WITH AN INCRS IN
HUMIDITY LVLS.

SOME OF THE HI-RES MODEL DATA CONT TO INDC SCTD CONVECTION FORMING
LATER TODAY ACRS PARTS OF MO...ALONG WITH A POSSIBLE MCS FORMING OVR
PARTS OF ERN NE/WRN IA. EXPECT MOST OF THIS ACTIVITY TO DIMINISH
TNGT...WITH ASSOCD HIGH CLOUDS SPILLING SEWD ACRS AR OVERNIGHT.

MODELS CONT TO INDC THAT A NEW STORM SYS WL ORGANIZE IN THE SRN
PLAINS BY TUE. THIS FEATURE WL CONT TO WORK EWD...BRINGING AN INCRS
CHC OF SHRA/TSRA TO PARTS OF THE FA TO CLOSE OUT THE SHORT TERM.
USED A BLEND OF MODEL GUIDANCE REGARDING TIMING AS MODEL SOLUTIONS
DO DIFFER ON TIMING AND EVENTUAL TRACK OF THIS SYS BY MIDWEEK.

LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY

UPPER HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE CENTERED NEAR THE FOUR CORNERS REGION
TO BEGIN THE LONG TERM PERIOD. NORTHWEST FLOW WILL BE OVER ARKANSAS.
THIS RIDGE WILL SLOWLY MOVE EAST THROUGH THE PERIOD AND MAY ENTER
WESTERN ARKANSAS THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY.

SEVERAL SHORT WAVES ARE EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH THE NORTHWEST FLOW
AND BRING CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE AREA. ON
WEDNESDAY...THE BEST CHANCE WILL BE IN THE NORTH AND CENTRAL
SECTIONS. THE BEST CHANCES THURSDAY AND FRIDAY WILL GENERALLY BE IN
THE NORTHEAST HALF OF THE AREA. TEMPERATURES WILL BE MAINLY IN THE
90S BUT THE HUMIDITY SHOULD NOT BE OPPRESSIVE...AS IT WAS LAST WEEK.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BATESVILLE AR     94  69  95  72 /   0   0  10   0
CAMDEN AR         96  67  98  69 /   0   0   0   0
HARRISON AR       92  65  92  68 /   0   0  10   0
HOT SPRINGS AR    95  68  97  70 /   0   0   0   0
LITTLE ROCK   AR  95  70  96  72 /   0   0   0   0
MONTICELLO AR     95  69  96  71 /   0   0   0   0
MOUNT IDA AR      95  66  95  68 /   0   0   0   0
MOUNTAIN HOME AR  92  66  93  68 /   0   0  10   0
NEWPORT AR        93  68  93  70 /   0   0   0   0
PINE BLUFF AR     95  69  96  70 /   0   0   0   0
RUSSELLVILLE AR   95  67  96  69 /   0   0  10   0
SEARCY AR         95  68  96  69 /   0   0   0   0
STUTTGART AR      95  69  95  71 /   0   0   0   0
&&

.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&

$$


AVIATION...99



000
FXUS64 KLZK 011720
AFDLZK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
1220 PM CDT SAT AUG 1 2015

.AVIATION...
EXPECT A FEW...VERY LOCALIZED AREAS OF IFR CONDITIONS DUE TO
FOG...IN FAVORED AREAS LATE TONIGHT. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
CENTERED NEAR BATESVILLE WILL PROMOTE LIGHT AND VARIABLE FLOW
THROUGH THE PERIOD.

55

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1040 AM CDT SAT AUG 1 2015/

DISCUSSION...

OVERALL FORECAST ON TRACK. THE MILDER AND DRIER AIR MASS IS OVER AR
AND HAS BROUGHT PLEASANT WEATHER CONDITIONS. THE UPPER RIDGE HAS
MOVED A BIT MORE TO THE WEST...WHILE SHORT WAVE ENERGY IN THE UPPER
NW FLOW WILL STAY WELL NORTH OF AR TODAY. THEREFORE EXPECT A SUNNY
AND WARM DAY WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO MID 90S...WHILE RH VALUES
MILDER WITH SURFACE DEW POINT TEMPS FROM THE LOWER 60S NORTH...MID
AND UPPER 60S CENTRAL...AND AROUND 70 SOUTH. LATE MORNING UPDATE
WILL ONLY FINE TUNE A FEW ELEMENTS WITH NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO
FORECAST. (59)

PREV DISCUSSION.../ ISSUED 627 AM CDT SAT AUG 1 2015/

AVIATION...
HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES OVER THE AREA THIS MORNING. PATCHY FOG IS
NOTED AT BPK AND ADF WITH LIFR CONDITIONS...BUT WILL BURN OFF
QUICKLY. SCATTERED HIGH CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE DAY WITH
LIGHT EAST WINDS. VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE FOR MUCH OF THE
PERIOD.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 350 AM CDT SAT AUG 1 2015/

SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT

AN AREA OF HIGH CLOUD DEBRIS CONTD TO WORK SEWD ACRS AR LAST NGT AND
EARLY THIS MRNG...ASSOCD WITH CONVECTION THAT OCCURRED IN THE PLAINS
ON FRI. MEANWHILE...SFC HIGH PRES RMND SITUATED ACRS SRN MO AND NWRN
AR...PROVIDING A LGT NELY WIND FLOW OVR THE FA.

THE AFOREMENTIONED SFC HIGH WL MEANDER OVR THE NATURAL STATE THRU
THE WEEKEND...RESULTING IN A STAGNANT WX PATTERN. CONDS TODAY WL BE
SIMILAR TO FRI REGARDING TEMPS...WITH HIGHS MAINLY IN THE LOWER AND
MID 90S. READINGS WL BE A FEW DEGREES WARMER ON SUN AS THE SFC HIGH
SLIPS SWD AND WINDS TAKE ON MORE OF A SWLY COMPONENT. THE GRADUAL
WARMING TREND WL CONT INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...ALONG WITH AN INCRS IN
HUMIDITY LVLS.

SOME OF THE HI-RES MODEL DATA CONT TO INDC SCTD CONVECTION FORMING
LATER TODAY ACRS PARTS OF MO...ALONG WITH A POSSIBLE MCS FORMING OVR
PARTS OF ERN NE/WRN IA. EXPECT MOST OF THIS ACTIVITY TO DIMINISH
TNGT...WITH ASSOCD HIGH CLOUDS SPILLING SEWD ACRS AR OVERNIGHT.

MODELS CONT TO INDC THAT A NEW STORM SYS WL ORGANIZE IN THE SRN
PLAINS BY TUE. THIS FEATURE WL CONT TO WORK EWD...BRINGING AN INCRS
CHC OF SHRA/TSRA TO PARTS OF THE FA TO CLOSE OUT THE SHORT TERM.
USED A BLEND OF MODEL GUIDANCE REGARDING TIMING AS MODEL SOLUTIONS
DO DIFFER ON TIMING AND EVENTUAL TRACK OF THIS SYS BY MIDWEEK.

LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY

UPPER HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE CENTERED NEAR THE FOUR CORNERS REGION
TO BEGIN THE LONG TERM PERIOD. NORTHWEST FLOW WILL BE OVER ARKANSAS.
THIS RIDGE WILL SLOWLY MOVE EAST THROUGH THE PERIOD AND MAY ENTER
WESTERN ARKANSAS THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY.

SEVERAL SHORT WAVES ARE EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH THE NORTHWEST FLOW
AND BRING CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE AREA. ON
WEDNESDAY...THE BEST CHANCE WILL BE IN THE NORTH AND CENTRAL
SECTIONS. THE BEST CHANCES THURSDAY AND FRIDAY WILL GENERALLY BE IN
THE NORTHEAST HALF OF THE AREA. TEMPERATURES WILL BE MAINLY IN THE
90S BUT THE HUMIDITY SHOULD NOT BE OPPRESSIVE...AS IT WAS LAST WEEK.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BATESVILLE AR     94  69  95  72 /   0   0  10   0
CAMDEN AR         96  67  98  69 /   0   0   0   0
HARRISON AR       92  65  92  68 /   0   0  10   0
HOT SPRINGS AR    95  68  97  70 /   0   0   0   0
LITTLE ROCK   AR  95  70  96  72 /   0   0   0   0
MONTICELLO AR     95  69  96  71 /   0   0   0   0
MOUNT IDA AR      95  66  95  68 /   0   0   0   0
MOUNTAIN HOME AR  92  66  93  68 /   0   0  10   0
NEWPORT AR        93  68  93  70 /   0   0   0   0
PINE BLUFF AR     95  69  96  70 /   0   0   0   0
RUSSELLVILLE AR   95  67  96  69 /   0   0  10   0
SEARCY AR         95  68  96  69 /   0   0   0   0
STUTTGART AR      95  69  95  71 /   0   0   0   0
&&

.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&

$$


AVIATION...99




000
FXUS64 KLZK 011720
AFDLZK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
1220 PM CDT SAT AUG 1 2015

.AVIATION...
EXPECT A FEW...VERY LOCALIZED AREAS OF IFR CONDITIONS DUE TO
FOG...IN FAVORED AREAS LATE TONIGHT. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
CENTERED NEAR BATESVILLE WILL PROMOTE LIGHT AND VARIABLE FLOW
THROUGH THE PERIOD.

55

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1040 AM CDT SAT AUG 1 2015/

DISCUSSION...

OVERALL FORECAST ON TRACK. THE MILDER AND DRIER AIR MASS IS OVER AR
AND HAS BROUGHT PLEASANT WEATHER CONDITIONS. THE UPPER RIDGE HAS
MOVED A BIT MORE TO THE WEST...WHILE SHORT WAVE ENERGY IN THE UPPER
NW FLOW WILL STAY WELL NORTH OF AR TODAY. THEREFORE EXPECT A SUNNY
AND WARM DAY WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO MID 90S...WHILE RH VALUES
MILDER WITH SURFACE DEW POINT TEMPS FROM THE LOWER 60S NORTH...MID
AND UPPER 60S CENTRAL...AND AROUND 70 SOUTH. LATE MORNING UPDATE
WILL ONLY FINE TUNE A FEW ELEMENTS WITH NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO
FORECAST. (59)

PREV DISCUSSION.../ ISSUED 627 AM CDT SAT AUG 1 2015/

AVIATION...
HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES OVER THE AREA THIS MORNING. PATCHY FOG IS
NOTED AT BPK AND ADF WITH LIFR CONDITIONS...BUT WILL BURN OFF
QUICKLY. SCATTERED HIGH CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE DAY WITH
LIGHT EAST WINDS. VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE FOR MUCH OF THE
PERIOD.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 350 AM CDT SAT AUG 1 2015/

SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT

AN AREA OF HIGH CLOUD DEBRIS CONTD TO WORK SEWD ACRS AR LAST NGT AND
EARLY THIS MRNG...ASSOCD WITH CONVECTION THAT OCCURRED IN THE PLAINS
ON FRI. MEANWHILE...SFC HIGH PRES RMND SITUATED ACRS SRN MO AND NWRN
AR...PROVIDING A LGT NELY WIND FLOW OVR THE FA.

THE AFOREMENTIONED SFC HIGH WL MEANDER OVR THE NATURAL STATE THRU
THE WEEKEND...RESULTING IN A STAGNANT WX PATTERN. CONDS TODAY WL BE
SIMILAR TO FRI REGARDING TEMPS...WITH HIGHS MAINLY IN THE LOWER AND
MID 90S. READINGS WL BE A FEW DEGREES WARMER ON SUN AS THE SFC HIGH
SLIPS SWD AND WINDS TAKE ON MORE OF A SWLY COMPONENT. THE GRADUAL
WARMING TREND WL CONT INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...ALONG WITH AN INCRS IN
HUMIDITY LVLS.

SOME OF THE HI-RES MODEL DATA CONT TO INDC SCTD CONVECTION FORMING
LATER TODAY ACRS PARTS OF MO...ALONG WITH A POSSIBLE MCS FORMING OVR
PARTS OF ERN NE/WRN IA. EXPECT MOST OF THIS ACTIVITY TO DIMINISH
TNGT...WITH ASSOCD HIGH CLOUDS SPILLING SEWD ACRS AR OVERNIGHT.

MODELS CONT TO INDC THAT A NEW STORM SYS WL ORGANIZE IN THE SRN
PLAINS BY TUE. THIS FEATURE WL CONT TO WORK EWD...BRINGING AN INCRS
CHC OF SHRA/TSRA TO PARTS OF THE FA TO CLOSE OUT THE SHORT TERM.
USED A BLEND OF MODEL GUIDANCE REGARDING TIMING AS MODEL SOLUTIONS
DO DIFFER ON TIMING AND EVENTUAL TRACK OF THIS SYS BY MIDWEEK.

LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY

UPPER HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE CENTERED NEAR THE FOUR CORNERS REGION
TO BEGIN THE LONG TERM PERIOD. NORTHWEST FLOW WILL BE OVER ARKANSAS.
THIS RIDGE WILL SLOWLY MOVE EAST THROUGH THE PERIOD AND MAY ENTER
WESTERN ARKANSAS THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY.

SEVERAL SHORT WAVES ARE EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH THE NORTHWEST FLOW
AND BRING CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE AREA. ON
WEDNESDAY...THE BEST CHANCE WILL BE IN THE NORTH AND CENTRAL
SECTIONS. THE BEST CHANCES THURSDAY AND FRIDAY WILL GENERALLY BE IN
THE NORTHEAST HALF OF THE AREA. TEMPERATURES WILL BE MAINLY IN THE
90S BUT THE HUMIDITY SHOULD NOT BE OPPRESSIVE...AS IT WAS LAST WEEK.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BATESVILLE AR     94  69  95  72 /   0   0  10   0
CAMDEN AR         96  67  98  69 /   0   0   0   0
HARRISON AR       92  65  92  68 /   0   0  10   0
HOT SPRINGS AR    95  68  97  70 /   0   0   0   0
LITTLE ROCK   AR  95  70  96  72 /   0   0   0   0
MONTICELLO AR     95  69  96  71 /   0   0   0   0
MOUNT IDA AR      95  66  95  68 /   0   0   0   0
MOUNTAIN HOME AR  92  66  93  68 /   0   0  10   0
NEWPORT AR        93  68  93  70 /   0   0   0   0
PINE BLUFF AR     95  69  96  70 /   0   0   0   0
RUSSELLVILLE AR   95  67  96  69 /   0   0  10   0
SEARCY AR         95  68  96  69 /   0   0   0   0
STUTTGART AR      95  69  95  71 /   0   0   0   0
&&

.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&

$$


AVIATION...99



000
FXUS64 KLZK 011720
AFDLZK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
1220 PM CDT SAT AUG 1 2015

.AVIATION...
EXPECT A FEW...VERY LOCALIZED AREAS OF IFR CONDITIONS DUE TO
FOG...IN FAVORED AREAS LATE TONIGHT. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
CENTERED NEAR BATESVILLE WILL PROMOTE LIGHT AND VARIABLE FLOW
THROUGH THE PERIOD.

55

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1040 AM CDT SAT AUG 1 2015/

DISCUSSION...

OVERALL FORECAST ON TRACK. THE MILDER AND DRIER AIR MASS IS OVER AR
AND HAS BROUGHT PLEASANT WEATHER CONDITIONS. THE UPPER RIDGE HAS
MOVED A BIT MORE TO THE WEST...WHILE SHORT WAVE ENERGY IN THE UPPER
NW FLOW WILL STAY WELL NORTH OF AR TODAY. THEREFORE EXPECT A SUNNY
AND WARM DAY WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO MID 90S...WHILE RH VALUES
MILDER WITH SURFACE DEW POINT TEMPS FROM THE LOWER 60S NORTH...MID
AND UPPER 60S CENTRAL...AND AROUND 70 SOUTH. LATE MORNING UPDATE
WILL ONLY FINE TUNE A FEW ELEMENTS WITH NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO
FORECAST. (59)

PREV DISCUSSION.../ ISSUED 627 AM CDT SAT AUG 1 2015/

AVIATION...
HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES OVER THE AREA THIS MORNING. PATCHY FOG IS
NOTED AT BPK AND ADF WITH LIFR CONDITIONS...BUT WILL BURN OFF
QUICKLY. SCATTERED HIGH CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE DAY WITH
LIGHT EAST WINDS. VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE FOR MUCH OF THE
PERIOD.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 350 AM CDT SAT AUG 1 2015/

SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT

AN AREA OF HIGH CLOUD DEBRIS CONTD TO WORK SEWD ACRS AR LAST NGT AND
EARLY THIS MRNG...ASSOCD WITH CONVECTION THAT OCCURRED IN THE PLAINS
ON FRI. MEANWHILE...SFC HIGH PRES RMND SITUATED ACRS SRN MO AND NWRN
AR...PROVIDING A LGT NELY WIND FLOW OVR THE FA.

THE AFOREMENTIONED SFC HIGH WL MEANDER OVR THE NATURAL STATE THRU
THE WEEKEND...RESULTING IN A STAGNANT WX PATTERN. CONDS TODAY WL BE
SIMILAR TO FRI REGARDING TEMPS...WITH HIGHS MAINLY IN THE LOWER AND
MID 90S. READINGS WL BE A FEW DEGREES WARMER ON SUN AS THE SFC HIGH
SLIPS SWD AND WINDS TAKE ON MORE OF A SWLY COMPONENT. THE GRADUAL
WARMING TREND WL CONT INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...ALONG WITH AN INCRS IN
HUMIDITY LVLS.

SOME OF THE HI-RES MODEL DATA CONT TO INDC SCTD CONVECTION FORMING
LATER TODAY ACRS PARTS OF MO...ALONG WITH A POSSIBLE MCS FORMING OVR
PARTS OF ERN NE/WRN IA. EXPECT MOST OF THIS ACTIVITY TO DIMINISH
TNGT...WITH ASSOCD HIGH CLOUDS SPILLING SEWD ACRS AR OVERNIGHT.

MODELS CONT TO INDC THAT A NEW STORM SYS WL ORGANIZE IN THE SRN
PLAINS BY TUE. THIS FEATURE WL CONT TO WORK EWD...BRINGING AN INCRS
CHC OF SHRA/TSRA TO PARTS OF THE FA TO CLOSE OUT THE SHORT TERM.
USED A BLEND OF MODEL GUIDANCE REGARDING TIMING AS MODEL SOLUTIONS
DO DIFFER ON TIMING AND EVENTUAL TRACK OF THIS SYS BY MIDWEEK.

LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY

UPPER HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE CENTERED NEAR THE FOUR CORNERS REGION
TO BEGIN THE LONG TERM PERIOD. NORTHWEST FLOW WILL BE OVER ARKANSAS.
THIS RIDGE WILL SLOWLY MOVE EAST THROUGH THE PERIOD AND MAY ENTER
WESTERN ARKANSAS THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY.

SEVERAL SHORT WAVES ARE EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH THE NORTHWEST FLOW
AND BRING CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE AREA. ON
WEDNESDAY...THE BEST CHANCE WILL BE IN THE NORTH AND CENTRAL
SECTIONS. THE BEST CHANCES THURSDAY AND FRIDAY WILL GENERALLY BE IN
THE NORTHEAST HALF OF THE AREA. TEMPERATURES WILL BE MAINLY IN THE
90S BUT THE HUMIDITY SHOULD NOT BE OPPRESSIVE...AS IT WAS LAST WEEK.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BATESVILLE AR     94  69  95  72 /   0   0  10   0
CAMDEN AR         96  67  98  69 /   0   0   0   0
HARRISON AR       92  65  92  68 /   0   0  10   0
HOT SPRINGS AR    95  68  97  70 /   0   0   0   0
LITTLE ROCK   AR  95  70  96  72 /   0   0   0   0
MONTICELLO AR     95  69  96  71 /   0   0   0   0
MOUNT IDA AR      95  66  95  68 /   0   0   0   0
MOUNTAIN HOME AR  92  66  93  68 /   0   0  10   0
NEWPORT AR        93  68  93  70 /   0   0   0   0
PINE BLUFF AR     95  69  96  70 /   0   0   0   0
RUSSELLVILLE AR   95  67  96  69 /   0   0  10   0
SEARCY AR         95  68  96  69 /   0   0   0   0
STUTTGART AR      95  69  95  71 /   0   0   0   0
&&

.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&

$$


AVIATION...99




000
FXUS64 KLZK 011540 AAA
AFDLZK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
1040 AM CDT SAT AUG 1 2015

.DISCUSSION...

OVERALL FORECAST ON TRACK. THE MILDER AND DRIER AIR MASS IS OVER AR
AND HAS BROUGHT PLEASANT WEATHER CONDITIONS. THE UPPER RIDGE HAS
MOVED A BIT MORE TO THE WEST...WHILE SHORT WAVE ENERGY IN THE UPPER
NW FLOW WILL STAY WELL NORTH OF AR TODAY. THEREFORE EXPECT A SUNNY
AND WARM DAY WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO MID 90S...WHILE RH VALUES
MILDER WITH SURFACE DEW POINT TEMPS FROM THE LOWER 60S NORTH...MID
AND UPPER 60S CENTRAL...AND AROUND 70 SOUTH. LATE MORNING UPDATE
WILL ONLY FINE TUNE A FEW ELEMENTS WITH NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO
FORECAST. (59)

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION.../ ISSUED 627 AM CDT SAT AUG 1 2015/

.AVIATION...
HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES OVER THE AREA THIS MORNING. PATCHY FOG IS
NOTED AT BPK AND ADF WITH LIFR CONDITIONS...BUT WILL BURN OFF
QUICKLY. SCATTERED HIGH CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE DAY WITH
LIGHT EAST WINDS. VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE FOR MUCH OF THE
PERIOD.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 350 AM CDT SAT AUG 1 2015/

SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT

AN AREA OF HIGH CLOUD DEBRIS CONTD TO WORK SEWD ACRS AR LAST NGT AND
EARLY THIS MRNG...ASSOCD WITH CONVECTION THAT OCCURRED IN THE PLAINS
ON FRI. MEANWHILE...SFC HIGH PRES RMND SITUATED ACRS SRN MO AND NWRN
AR...PROVIDING A LGT NELY WIND FLOW OVR THE FA.

THE AFOREMENTIONED SFC HIGH WL MEANDER OVR THE NATURAL STATE THRU
THE WEEKEND...RESULTING IN A STAGNANT WX PATTERN. CONDS TODAY WL BE
SIMILAR TO FRI REGARDING TEMPS...WITH HIGHS MAINLY IN THE LOWER AND
MID 90S. READINGS WL BE A FEW DEGREES WARMER ON SUN AS THE SFC HIGH
SLIPS SWD AND WINDS TAKE ON MORE OF A SWLY COMPONENT. THE GRADUAL
WARMING TREND WL CONT INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...ALONG WITH AN INCRS IN
HUMIDITY LVLS.

SOME OF THE HI-RES MODEL DATA CONT TO INDC SCTD CONVECTION FORMING
LATER TODAY ACRS PARTS OF MO...ALONG WITH A POSSIBLE MCS FORMING OVR
PARTS OF ERN NE/WRN IA. EXPECT MOST OF THIS ACTIVITY TO DIMINISH
TNGT...WITH ASSOCD HIGH CLOUDS SPILLING SEWD ACRS AR OVERNIGHT.

MODELS CONT TO INDC THAT A NEW STORM SYS WL ORGANIZE IN THE SRN
PLAINS BY TUE. THIS FEATURE WL CONT TO WORK EWD...BRINGING AN INCRS
CHC OF SHRA/TSRA TO PARTS OF THE FA TO CLOSE OUT THE SHORT TERM.
USED A BLEND OF MODEL GUIDANCE REGARDING TIMING AS MODEL SOLUTIONS
DO DIFFER ON TIMING AND EVENTUAL TRACK OF THIS SYS BY MIDWEEK.

LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY

UPPER HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE CENTERED NEAR THE FOUR CORNERS REGION
TO BEGIN THE LONG TERM PERIOD. NORTHWEST FLOW WILL BE OVER ARKANSAS.
THIS RIDGE WILL SLOWLY MOVE EAST THROUGH THE PERIOD AND MAY ENTER
WESTERN ARKANSAS THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY.

SEVERAL SHORT WAVES ARE EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH THE NORTHWEST FLOW
AND BRING CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE AREA. ON
WEDNESDAY...THE BEST CHANCE WILL BE IN THE NORTH AND CENTRAL
SECTIONS. THE BEST CHANCES THURSDAY AND FRIDAY WILL GENERALLY BE IN
THE NORTHEAST HALF OF THE AREA. TEMPERATURES WILL BE MAINLY IN THE
90S BUT THE HUMIDITY SHOULD NOT BE OPPRESSIVE...AS IT WAS LAST WEEK.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BATESVILLE AR     94  69  95  72 /   0   0  10   0
CAMDEN AR         96  67  98  69 /   0   0   0   0
HARRISON AR       92  65  92  68 /   0   0  10   0
HOT SPRINGS AR    96  68  97  70 /   0   0   0   0
LITTLE ROCK   AR  95  70  96  72 /   0   0   0   0
MONTICELLO AR     95  69  96  71 /   0   0   0   0
MOUNT IDA AR      96  66  95  68 /   0   0   0   0
MOUNTAIN HOME AR  92  66  93  68 /   0   0  10   0
NEWPORT AR        93  68  93  70 /   0   0   0   0
PINE BLUFF AR     95  69  96  70 /   0   0   0   0
RUSSELLVILLE AR   95  67  96  69 /   0   0  10   0
SEARCY AR         95  68  96  69 /   0   0   0   0
STUTTGART AR      95  69  95  71 /   0   0   0   0
&&

.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&

$$


AVIATION...51



000
FXUS64 KLZK 011540 AAA
AFDLZK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
1040 AM CDT SAT AUG 1 2015

.DISCUSSION...

OVERALL FORECAST ON TRACK. THE MILDER AND DRIER AIR MASS IS OVER AR
AND HAS BROUGHT PLEASANT WEATHER CONDITIONS. THE UPPER RIDGE HAS
MOVED A BIT MORE TO THE WEST...WHILE SHORT WAVE ENERGY IN THE UPPER
NW FLOW WILL STAY WELL NORTH OF AR TODAY. THEREFORE EXPECT A SUNNY
AND WARM DAY WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO MID 90S...WHILE RH VALUES
MILDER WITH SURFACE DEW POINT TEMPS FROM THE LOWER 60S NORTH...MID
AND UPPER 60S CENTRAL...AND AROUND 70 SOUTH. LATE MORNING UPDATE
WILL ONLY FINE TUNE A FEW ELEMENTS WITH NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO
FORECAST. (59)

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION.../ ISSUED 627 AM CDT SAT AUG 1 2015/

.AVIATION...
HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES OVER THE AREA THIS MORNING. PATCHY FOG IS
NOTED AT BPK AND ADF WITH LIFR CONDITIONS...BUT WILL BURN OFF
QUICKLY. SCATTERED HIGH CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE DAY WITH
LIGHT EAST WINDS. VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE FOR MUCH OF THE
PERIOD.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 350 AM CDT SAT AUG 1 2015/

SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT

AN AREA OF HIGH CLOUD DEBRIS CONTD TO WORK SEWD ACRS AR LAST NGT AND
EARLY THIS MRNG...ASSOCD WITH CONVECTION THAT OCCURRED IN THE PLAINS
ON FRI. MEANWHILE...SFC HIGH PRES RMND SITUATED ACRS SRN MO AND NWRN
AR...PROVIDING A LGT NELY WIND FLOW OVR THE FA.

THE AFOREMENTIONED SFC HIGH WL MEANDER OVR THE NATURAL STATE THRU
THE WEEKEND...RESULTING IN A STAGNANT WX PATTERN. CONDS TODAY WL BE
SIMILAR TO FRI REGARDING TEMPS...WITH HIGHS MAINLY IN THE LOWER AND
MID 90S. READINGS WL BE A FEW DEGREES WARMER ON SUN AS THE SFC HIGH
SLIPS SWD AND WINDS TAKE ON MORE OF A SWLY COMPONENT. THE GRADUAL
WARMING TREND WL CONT INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...ALONG WITH AN INCRS IN
HUMIDITY LVLS.

SOME OF THE HI-RES MODEL DATA CONT TO INDC SCTD CONVECTION FORMING
LATER TODAY ACRS PARTS OF MO...ALONG WITH A POSSIBLE MCS FORMING OVR
PARTS OF ERN NE/WRN IA. EXPECT MOST OF THIS ACTIVITY TO DIMINISH
TNGT...WITH ASSOCD HIGH CLOUDS SPILLING SEWD ACRS AR OVERNIGHT.

MODELS CONT TO INDC THAT A NEW STORM SYS WL ORGANIZE IN THE SRN
PLAINS BY TUE. THIS FEATURE WL CONT TO WORK EWD...BRINGING AN INCRS
CHC OF SHRA/TSRA TO PARTS OF THE FA TO CLOSE OUT THE SHORT TERM.
USED A BLEND OF MODEL GUIDANCE REGARDING TIMING AS MODEL SOLUTIONS
DO DIFFER ON TIMING AND EVENTUAL TRACK OF THIS SYS BY MIDWEEK.

LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY

UPPER HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE CENTERED NEAR THE FOUR CORNERS REGION
TO BEGIN THE LONG TERM PERIOD. NORTHWEST FLOW WILL BE OVER ARKANSAS.
THIS RIDGE WILL SLOWLY MOVE EAST THROUGH THE PERIOD AND MAY ENTER
WESTERN ARKANSAS THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY.

SEVERAL SHORT WAVES ARE EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH THE NORTHWEST FLOW
AND BRING CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE AREA. ON
WEDNESDAY...THE BEST CHANCE WILL BE IN THE NORTH AND CENTRAL
SECTIONS. THE BEST CHANCES THURSDAY AND FRIDAY WILL GENERALLY BE IN
THE NORTHEAST HALF OF THE AREA. TEMPERATURES WILL BE MAINLY IN THE
90S BUT THE HUMIDITY SHOULD NOT BE OPPRESSIVE...AS IT WAS LAST WEEK.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BATESVILLE AR     94  69  95  72 /   0   0  10   0
CAMDEN AR         96  67  98  69 /   0   0   0   0
HARRISON AR       92  65  92  68 /   0   0  10   0
HOT SPRINGS AR    96  68  97  70 /   0   0   0   0
LITTLE ROCK   AR  95  70  96  72 /   0   0   0   0
MONTICELLO AR     95  69  96  71 /   0   0   0   0
MOUNT IDA AR      96  66  95  68 /   0   0   0   0
MOUNTAIN HOME AR  92  66  93  68 /   0   0  10   0
NEWPORT AR        93  68  93  70 /   0   0   0   0
PINE BLUFF AR     95  69  96  70 /   0   0   0   0
RUSSELLVILLE AR   95  67  96  69 /   0   0  10   0
SEARCY AR         95  68  96  69 /   0   0   0   0
STUTTGART AR      95  69  95  71 /   0   0   0   0
&&

.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&

$$


AVIATION...51



000
FXUS64 KLZK 011540 AAA
AFDLZK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
1040 AM CDT SAT AUG 1 2015

.DISCUSSION...

OVERALL FORECAST ON TRACK. THE MILDER AND DRIER AIR MASS IS OVER AR
AND HAS BROUGHT PLEASANT WEATHER CONDITIONS. THE UPPER RIDGE HAS
MOVED A BIT MORE TO THE WEST...WHILE SHORT WAVE ENERGY IN THE UPPER
NW FLOW WILL STAY WELL NORTH OF AR TODAY. THEREFORE EXPECT A SUNNY
AND WARM DAY WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO MID 90S...WHILE RH VALUES
MILDER WITH SURFACE DEW POINT TEMPS FROM THE LOWER 60S NORTH...MID
AND UPPER 60S CENTRAL...AND AROUND 70 SOUTH. LATE MORNING UPDATE
WILL ONLY FINE TUNE A FEW ELEMENTS WITH NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO
FORECAST. (59)

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION.../ ISSUED 627 AM CDT SAT AUG 1 2015/

.AVIATION...
HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES OVER THE AREA THIS MORNING. PATCHY FOG IS
NOTED AT BPK AND ADF WITH LIFR CONDITIONS...BUT WILL BURN OFF
QUICKLY. SCATTERED HIGH CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE DAY WITH
LIGHT EAST WINDS. VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE FOR MUCH OF THE
PERIOD.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 350 AM CDT SAT AUG 1 2015/

SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT

AN AREA OF HIGH CLOUD DEBRIS CONTD TO WORK SEWD ACRS AR LAST NGT AND
EARLY THIS MRNG...ASSOCD WITH CONVECTION THAT OCCURRED IN THE PLAINS
ON FRI. MEANWHILE...SFC HIGH PRES RMND SITUATED ACRS SRN MO AND NWRN
AR...PROVIDING A LGT NELY WIND FLOW OVR THE FA.

THE AFOREMENTIONED SFC HIGH WL MEANDER OVR THE NATURAL STATE THRU
THE WEEKEND...RESULTING IN A STAGNANT WX PATTERN. CONDS TODAY WL BE
SIMILAR TO FRI REGARDING TEMPS...WITH HIGHS MAINLY IN THE LOWER AND
MID 90S. READINGS WL BE A FEW DEGREES WARMER ON SUN AS THE SFC HIGH
SLIPS SWD AND WINDS TAKE ON MORE OF A SWLY COMPONENT. THE GRADUAL
WARMING TREND WL CONT INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...ALONG WITH AN INCRS IN
HUMIDITY LVLS.

SOME OF THE HI-RES MODEL DATA CONT TO INDC SCTD CONVECTION FORMING
LATER TODAY ACRS PARTS OF MO...ALONG WITH A POSSIBLE MCS FORMING OVR
PARTS OF ERN NE/WRN IA. EXPECT MOST OF THIS ACTIVITY TO DIMINISH
TNGT...WITH ASSOCD HIGH CLOUDS SPILLING SEWD ACRS AR OVERNIGHT.

MODELS CONT TO INDC THAT A NEW STORM SYS WL ORGANIZE IN THE SRN
PLAINS BY TUE. THIS FEATURE WL CONT TO WORK EWD...BRINGING AN INCRS
CHC OF SHRA/TSRA TO PARTS OF THE FA TO CLOSE OUT THE SHORT TERM.
USED A BLEND OF MODEL GUIDANCE REGARDING TIMING AS MODEL SOLUTIONS
DO DIFFER ON TIMING AND EVENTUAL TRACK OF THIS SYS BY MIDWEEK.

LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY

UPPER HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE CENTERED NEAR THE FOUR CORNERS REGION
TO BEGIN THE LONG TERM PERIOD. NORTHWEST FLOW WILL BE OVER ARKANSAS.
THIS RIDGE WILL SLOWLY MOVE EAST THROUGH THE PERIOD AND MAY ENTER
WESTERN ARKANSAS THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY.

SEVERAL SHORT WAVES ARE EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH THE NORTHWEST FLOW
AND BRING CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE AREA. ON
WEDNESDAY...THE BEST CHANCE WILL BE IN THE NORTH AND CENTRAL
SECTIONS. THE BEST CHANCES THURSDAY AND FRIDAY WILL GENERALLY BE IN
THE NORTHEAST HALF OF THE AREA. TEMPERATURES WILL BE MAINLY IN THE
90S BUT THE HUMIDITY SHOULD NOT BE OPPRESSIVE...AS IT WAS LAST WEEK.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BATESVILLE AR     94  69  95  72 /   0   0  10   0
CAMDEN AR         96  67  98  69 /   0   0   0   0
HARRISON AR       92  65  92  68 /   0   0  10   0
HOT SPRINGS AR    96  68  97  70 /   0   0   0   0
LITTLE ROCK   AR  95  70  96  72 /   0   0   0   0
MONTICELLO AR     95  69  96  71 /   0   0   0   0
MOUNT IDA AR      96  66  95  68 /   0   0   0   0
MOUNTAIN HOME AR  92  66  93  68 /   0   0  10   0
NEWPORT AR        93  68  93  70 /   0   0   0   0
PINE BLUFF AR     95  69  96  70 /   0   0   0   0
RUSSELLVILLE AR   95  67  96  69 /   0   0  10   0
SEARCY AR         95  68  96  69 /   0   0   0   0
STUTTGART AR      95  69  95  71 /   0   0   0   0
&&

.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&

$$


AVIATION...51




000
FXUS64 KLZK 011127
AFDLZK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
627 AM CDT SAT AUG 1 2015

.AVIATION...
HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES OVER THE AREA THIS MORNING. PATCHY FOG IS
NOTED AT BPK AND ADF WITH LIFR CONDITIONS...BUT WILL BURN OFF
QUICKLY. SCATTERED HIGH CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE DAY WITH
LIGHT EAST WINDS. VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE FOR MUCH OF THE
PERIOD.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 350 AM CDT SAT AUG 1 2015/

SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT

AN AREA OF HIGH CLOUD DEBRIS CONTD TO WORK SEWD ACRS AR LAST NGT AND
EARLY THIS MRNG...ASSOCD WITH CONVECTION THAT OCCURRED IN THE PLAINS
ON FRI. MEANWHILE...SFC HIGH PRES RMND SITUATED ACRS SRN MO AND NWRN
AR...PROVIDING A LGT NELY WIND FLOW OVR THE FA.

THE AFOREMENTIONED SFC HIGH WL MEANDER OVR THE NATURAL STATE THRU
THE WEEKEND...RESULTING IN A STAGNANT WX PATTERN. CONDS TODAY WL BE
SIMILAR TO FRI REGARDING TEMPS...WITH HIGHS MAINLY IN THE LOWER AND
MID 90S. READINGS WL BE A FEW DEGREES WARMER ON SUN AS THE SFC HIGH
SLIPS SWD AND WINDS TAKE ON MORE OF A SWLY COMPONENT. THE GRADUAL
WARMING TREND WL CONT INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...ALONG WITH AN INCRS IN
HUMIDITY LVLS.

SOME OF THE HI-RES MODEL DATA CONT TO INDC SCTD CONVECTION FORMING
LATER TODAY ACRS PARTS OF MO...ALONG WITH A POSSIBLE MCS FORMING OVR
PARTS OF ERN NE/WRN IA. EXPECT MOST OF THIS ACTIVITY TO DIMINISH
TNGT...WITH ASSOCD HIGH CLOUDS SPILLING SEWD ACRS AR OVERNIGHT.

MODELS CONT TO INDC THAT A NEW STORM SYS WL ORGANIZE IN THE SRN
PLAINS BY TUE. THIS FEATURE WL CONT TO WORK EWD...BRINGING AN INCRS
CHC OF SHRA/TSRA TO PARTS OF THE FA TO CLOSE OUT THE SHORT TERM.
USED A BLEND OF MODEL GUIDANCE REGARDING TIMING AS MODEL SOLUTIONS
DO DIFFER ON TIMING AND EVENTUAL TRACK OF THIS SYS BY MIDWEEK.

LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY

UPPER HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE CENTERED NEAR THE FOUR CORNERS REGION
TO BEGIN THE LONG TERM PERIOD. NORTHWEST FLOW WILL BE OVER ARKANSAS.
THIS RIDGE WILL SLOWLY MOVE EAST THROUGH THE PERIOD AND MAY ENTER
WESTERN ARKANSAS THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY.

SEVERAL SHORT WAVES ARE EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH THE NORTHWEST FLOW
AND BRING CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE AREA. ON
WEDNESDAY...THE BEST CHANCE WILL BE IN THE NORTH AND CENTRAL
SECTIONS. THE BEST CHANCES THURSDAY AND FRIDAY WILL GENERALLY BE IN
THE NORTHEAST HALF OF THE AREA. TEMPERATURES WILL BE MAINLY IN THE
90S BUT THE HUMIDITY SHOULD NOT BE OPPRESSIVE...AS IT WAS LAST WEEK.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BATESVILLE AR     94  69  95  72 /   0   0  10   0
CAMDEN AR         96  67  98  69 /   0   0   0   0
HARRISON AR       92  65  92  68 /   0   0  10   0
HOT SPRINGS AR    96  68  97  70 /   0   0   0   0
LITTLE ROCK   AR  95  70  96  72 /   0   0   0   0
MONTICELLO AR     95  69  96  71 /   0   0   0   0
MOUNT IDA AR      96  66  95  68 /   0   0   0   0
MOUNTAIN HOME AR  92  66  93  68 /   0   0  10   0
NEWPORT AR        93  68  93  70 /   0   0   0   0
PINE BLUFF AR     95  69  96  70 /   0   0   0   0
RUSSELLVILLE AR   95  67  96  69 /   0   0  10   0
SEARCY AR         95  68  96  69 /   0   0   0   0
STUTTGART AR      95  69  95  71 /   0   0   0   0
&&

.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&

$$


AVIATION...51



000
FXUS64 KLZK 011127
AFDLZK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
627 AM CDT SAT AUG 1 2015

.AVIATION...
HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES OVER THE AREA THIS MORNING. PATCHY FOG IS
NOTED AT BPK AND ADF WITH LIFR CONDITIONS...BUT WILL BURN OFF
QUICKLY. SCATTERED HIGH CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE DAY WITH
LIGHT EAST WINDS. VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE FOR MUCH OF THE
PERIOD.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 350 AM CDT SAT AUG 1 2015/

SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT

AN AREA OF HIGH CLOUD DEBRIS CONTD TO WORK SEWD ACRS AR LAST NGT AND
EARLY THIS MRNG...ASSOCD WITH CONVECTION THAT OCCURRED IN THE PLAINS
ON FRI. MEANWHILE...SFC HIGH PRES RMND SITUATED ACRS SRN MO AND NWRN
AR...PROVIDING A LGT NELY WIND FLOW OVR THE FA.

THE AFOREMENTIONED SFC HIGH WL MEANDER OVR THE NATURAL STATE THRU
THE WEEKEND...RESULTING IN A STAGNANT WX PATTERN. CONDS TODAY WL BE
SIMILAR TO FRI REGARDING TEMPS...WITH HIGHS MAINLY IN THE LOWER AND
MID 90S. READINGS WL BE A FEW DEGREES WARMER ON SUN AS THE SFC HIGH
SLIPS SWD AND WINDS TAKE ON MORE OF A SWLY COMPONENT. THE GRADUAL
WARMING TREND WL CONT INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...ALONG WITH AN INCRS IN
HUMIDITY LVLS.

SOME OF THE HI-RES MODEL DATA CONT TO INDC SCTD CONVECTION FORMING
LATER TODAY ACRS PARTS OF MO...ALONG WITH A POSSIBLE MCS FORMING OVR
PARTS OF ERN NE/WRN IA. EXPECT MOST OF THIS ACTIVITY TO DIMINISH
TNGT...WITH ASSOCD HIGH CLOUDS SPILLING SEWD ACRS AR OVERNIGHT.

MODELS CONT TO INDC THAT A NEW STORM SYS WL ORGANIZE IN THE SRN
PLAINS BY TUE. THIS FEATURE WL CONT TO WORK EWD...BRINGING AN INCRS
CHC OF SHRA/TSRA TO PARTS OF THE FA TO CLOSE OUT THE SHORT TERM.
USED A BLEND OF MODEL GUIDANCE REGARDING TIMING AS MODEL SOLUTIONS
DO DIFFER ON TIMING AND EVENTUAL TRACK OF THIS SYS BY MIDWEEK.

LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY

UPPER HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE CENTERED NEAR THE FOUR CORNERS REGION
TO BEGIN THE LONG TERM PERIOD. NORTHWEST FLOW WILL BE OVER ARKANSAS.
THIS RIDGE WILL SLOWLY MOVE EAST THROUGH THE PERIOD AND MAY ENTER
WESTERN ARKANSAS THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY.

SEVERAL SHORT WAVES ARE EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH THE NORTHWEST FLOW
AND BRING CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE AREA. ON
WEDNESDAY...THE BEST CHANCE WILL BE IN THE NORTH AND CENTRAL
SECTIONS. THE BEST CHANCES THURSDAY AND FRIDAY WILL GENERALLY BE IN
THE NORTHEAST HALF OF THE AREA. TEMPERATURES WILL BE MAINLY IN THE
90S BUT THE HUMIDITY SHOULD NOT BE OPPRESSIVE...AS IT WAS LAST WEEK.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BATESVILLE AR     94  69  95  72 /   0   0  10   0
CAMDEN AR         96  67  98  69 /   0   0   0   0
HARRISON AR       92  65  92  68 /   0   0  10   0
HOT SPRINGS AR    96  68  97  70 /   0   0   0   0
LITTLE ROCK   AR  95  70  96  72 /   0   0   0   0
MONTICELLO AR     95  69  96  71 /   0   0   0   0
MOUNT IDA AR      96  66  95  68 /   0   0   0   0
MOUNTAIN HOME AR  92  66  93  68 /   0   0  10   0
NEWPORT AR        93  68  93  70 /   0   0   0   0
PINE BLUFF AR     95  69  96  70 /   0   0   0   0
RUSSELLVILLE AR   95  67  96  69 /   0   0  10   0
SEARCY AR         95  68  96  69 /   0   0   0   0
STUTTGART AR      95  69  95  71 /   0   0   0   0
&&

.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&

$$


AVIATION...51




000
FXUS64 KLZK 011127
AFDLZK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
627 AM CDT SAT AUG 1 2015

.AVIATION...
HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES OVER THE AREA THIS MORNING. PATCHY FOG IS
NOTED AT BPK AND ADF WITH LIFR CONDITIONS...BUT WILL BURN OFF
QUICKLY. SCATTERED HIGH CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE DAY WITH
LIGHT EAST WINDS. VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE FOR MUCH OF THE
PERIOD.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 350 AM CDT SAT AUG 1 2015/

SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT

AN AREA OF HIGH CLOUD DEBRIS CONTD TO WORK SEWD ACRS AR LAST NGT AND
EARLY THIS MRNG...ASSOCD WITH CONVECTION THAT OCCURRED IN THE PLAINS
ON FRI. MEANWHILE...SFC HIGH PRES RMND SITUATED ACRS SRN MO AND NWRN
AR...PROVIDING A LGT NELY WIND FLOW OVR THE FA.

THE AFOREMENTIONED SFC HIGH WL MEANDER OVR THE NATURAL STATE THRU
THE WEEKEND...RESULTING IN A STAGNANT WX PATTERN. CONDS TODAY WL BE
SIMILAR TO FRI REGARDING TEMPS...WITH HIGHS MAINLY IN THE LOWER AND
MID 90S. READINGS WL BE A FEW DEGREES WARMER ON SUN AS THE SFC HIGH
SLIPS SWD AND WINDS TAKE ON MORE OF A SWLY COMPONENT. THE GRADUAL
WARMING TREND WL CONT INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...ALONG WITH AN INCRS IN
HUMIDITY LVLS.

SOME OF THE HI-RES MODEL DATA CONT TO INDC SCTD CONVECTION FORMING
LATER TODAY ACRS PARTS OF MO...ALONG WITH A POSSIBLE MCS FORMING OVR
PARTS OF ERN NE/WRN IA. EXPECT MOST OF THIS ACTIVITY TO DIMINISH
TNGT...WITH ASSOCD HIGH CLOUDS SPILLING SEWD ACRS AR OVERNIGHT.

MODELS CONT TO INDC THAT A NEW STORM SYS WL ORGANIZE IN THE SRN
PLAINS BY TUE. THIS FEATURE WL CONT TO WORK EWD...BRINGING AN INCRS
CHC OF SHRA/TSRA TO PARTS OF THE FA TO CLOSE OUT THE SHORT TERM.
USED A BLEND OF MODEL GUIDANCE REGARDING TIMING AS MODEL SOLUTIONS
DO DIFFER ON TIMING AND EVENTUAL TRACK OF THIS SYS BY MIDWEEK.

LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY

UPPER HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE CENTERED NEAR THE FOUR CORNERS REGION
TO BEGIN THE LONG TERM PERIOD. NORTHWEST FLOW WILL BE OVER ARKANSAS.
THIS RIDGE WILL SLOWLY MOVE EAST THROUGH THE PERIOD AND MAY ENTER
WESTERN ARKANSAS THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY.

SEVERAL SHORT WAVES ARE EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH THE NORTHWEST FLOW
AND BRING CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE AREA. ON
WEDNESDAY...THE BEST CHANCE WILL BE IN THE NORTH AND CENTRAL
SECTIONS. THE BEST CHANCES THURSDAY AND FRIDAY WILL GENERALLY BE IN
THE NORTHEAST HALF OF THE AREA. TEMPERATURES WILL BE MAINLY IN THE
90S BUT THE HUMIDITY SHOULD NOT BE OPPRESSIVE...AS IT WAS LAST WEEK.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BATESVILLE AR     94  69  95  72 /   0   0  10   0
CAMDEN AR         96  67  98  69 /   0   0   0   0
HARRISON AR       92  65  92  68 /   0   0  10   0
HOT SPRINGS AR    96  68  97  70 /   0   0   0   0
LITTLE ROCK   AR  95  70  96  72 /   0   0   0   0
MONTICELLO AR     95  69  96  71 /   0   0   0   0
MOUNT IDA AR      96  66  95  68 /   0   0   0   0
MOUNTAIN HOME AR  92  66  93  68 /   0   0  10   0
NEWPORT AR        93  68  93  70 /   0   0   0   0
PINE BLUFF AR     95  69  96  70 /   0   0   0   0
RUSSELLVILLE AR   95  67  96  69 /   0   0  10   0
SEARCY AR         95  68  96  69 /   0   0   0   0
STUTTGART AR      95  69  95  71 /   0   0   0   0
&&

.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&

$$


AVIATION...51




000
FXUS64 KLZK 011127
AFDLZK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
627 AM CDT SAT AUG 1 2015

.AVIATION...
HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES OVER THE AREA THIS MORNING. PATCHY FOG IS
NOTED AT BPK AND ADF WITH LIFR CONDITIONS...BUT WILL BURN OFF
QUICKLY. SCATTERED HIGH CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE DAY WITH
LIGHT EAST WINDS. VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE FOR MUCH OF THE
PERIOD.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 350 AM CDT SAT AUG 1 2015/

SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT

AN AREA OF HIGH CLOUD DEBRIS CONTD TO WORK SEWD ACRS AR LAST NGT AND
EARLY THIS MRNG...ASSOCD WITH CONVECTION THAT OCCURRED IN THE PLAINS
ON FRI. MEANWHILE...SFC HIGH PRES RMND SITUATED ACRS SRN MO AND NWRN
AR...PROVIDING A LGT NELY WIND FLOW OVR THE FA.

THE AFOREMENTIONED SFC HIGH WL MEANDER OVR THE NATURAL STATE THRU
THE WEEKEND...RESULTING IN A STAGNANT WX PATTERN. CONDS TODAY WL BE
SIMILAR TO FRI REGARDING TEMPS...WITH HIGHS MAINLY IN THE LOWER AND
MID 90S. READINGS WL BE A FEW DEGREES WARMER ON SUN AS THE SFC HIGH
SLIPS SWD AND WINDS TAKE ON MORE OF A SWLY COMPONENT. THE GRADUAL
WARMING TREND WL CONT INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...ALONG WITH AN INCRS IN
HUMIDITY LVLS.

SOME OF THE HI-RES MODEL DATA CONT TO INDC SCTD CONVECTION FORMING
LATER TODAY ACRS PARTS OF MO...ALONG WITH A POSSIBLE MCS FORMING OVR
PARTS OF ERN NE/WRN IA. EXPECT MOST OF THIS ACTIVITY TO DIMINISH
TNGT...WITH ASSOCD HIGH CLOUDS SPILLING SEWD ACRS AR OVERNIGHT.

MODELS CONT TO INDC THAT A NEW STORM SYS WL ORGANIZE IN THE SRN
PLAINS BY TUE. THIS FEATURE WL CONT TO WORK EWD...BRINGING AN INCRS
CHC OF SHRA/TSRA TO PARTS OF THE FA TO CLOSE OUT THE SHORT TERM.
USED A BLEND OF MODEL GUIDANCE REGARDING TIMING AS MODEL SOLUTIONS
DO DIFFER ON TIMING AND EVENTUAL TRACK OF THIS SYS BY MIDWEEK.

LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY

UPPER HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE CENTERED NEAR THE FOUR CORNERS REGION
TO BEGIN THE LONG TERM PERIOD. NORTHWEST FLOW WILL BE OVER ARKANSAS.
THIS RIDGE WILL SLOWLY MOVE EAST THROUGH THE PERIOD AND MAY ENTER
WESTERN ARKANSAS THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY.

SEVERAL SHORT WAVES ARE EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH THE NORTHWEST FLOW
AND BRING CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE AREA. ON
WEDNESDAY...THE BEST CHANCE WILL BE IN THE NORTH AND CENTRAL
SECTIONS. THE BEST CHANCES THURSDAY AND FRIDAY WILL GENERALLY BE IN
THE NORTHEAST HALF OF THE AREA. TEMPERATURES WILL BE MAINLY IN THE
90S BUT THE HUMIDITY SHOULD NOT BE OPPRESSIVE...AS IT WAS LAST WEEK.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BATESVILLE AR     94  69  95  72 /   0   0  10   0
CAMDEN AR         96  67  98  69 /   0   0   0   0
HARRISON AR       92  65  92  68 /   0   0  10   0
HOT SPRINGS AR    96  68  97  70 /   0   0   0   0
LITTLE ROCK   AR  95  70  96  72 /   0   0   0   0
MONTICELLO AR     95  69  96  71 /   0   0   0   0
MOUNT IDA AR      96  66  95  68 /   0   0   0   0
MOUNTAIN HOME AR  92  66  93  68 /   0   0  10   0
NEWPORT AR        93  68  93  70 /   0   0   0   0
PINE BLUFF AR     95  69  96  70 /   0   0   0   0
RUSSELLVILLE AR   95  67  96  69 /   0   0  10   0
SEARCY AR         95  68  96  69 /   0   0   0   0
STUTTGART AR      95  69  95  71 /   0   0   0   0
&&

.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&

$$


AVIATION...51




000
FXUS64 KLZK 011127
AFDLZK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
627 AM CDT SAT AUG 1 2015

.AVIATION...
HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES OVER THE AREA THIS MORNING. PATCHY FOG IS
NOTED AT BPK AND ADF WITH LIFR CONDITIONS...BUT WILL BURN OFF
QUICKLY. SCATTERED HIGH CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE DAY WITH
LIGHT EAST WINDS. VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE FOR MUCH OF THE
PERIOD.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 350 AM CDT SAT AUG 1 2015/

SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT

AN AREA OF HIGH CLOUD DEBRIS CONTD TO WORK SEWD ACRS AR LAST NGT AND
EARLY THIS MRNG...ASSOCD WITH CONVECTION THAT OCCURRED IN THE PLAINS
ON FRI. MEANWHILE...SFC HIGH PRES RMND SITUATED ACRS SRN MO AND NWRN
AR...PROVIDING A LGT NELY WIND FLOW OVR THE FA.

THE AFOREMENTIONED SFC HIGH WL MEANDER OVR THE NATURAL STATE THRU
THE WEEKEND...RESULTING IN A STAGNANT WX PATTERN. CONDS TODAY WL BE
SIMILAR TO FRI REGARDING TEMPS...WITH HIGHS MAINLY IN THE LOWER AND
MID 90S. READINGS WL BE A FEW DEGREES WARMER ON SUN AS THE SFC HIGH
SLIPS SWD AND WINDS TAKE ON MORE OF A SWLY COMPONENT. THE GRADUAL
WARMING TREND WL CONT INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...ALONG WITH AN INCRS IN
HUMIDITY LVLS.

SOME OF THE HI-RES MODEL DATA CONT TO INDC SCTD CONVECTION FORMING
LATER TODAY ACRS PARTS OF MO...ALONG WITH A POSSIBLE MCS FORMING OVR
PARTS OF ERN NE/WRN IA. EXPECT MOST OF THIS ACTIVITY TO DIMINISH
TNGT...WITH ASSOCD HIGH CLOUDS SPILLING SEWD ACRS AR OVERNIGHT.

MODELS CONT TO INDC THAT A NEW STORM SYS WL ORGANIZE IN THE SRN
PLAINS BY TUE. THIS FEATURE WL CONT TO WORK EWD...BRINGING AN INCRS
CHC OF SHRA/TSRA TO PARTS OF THE FA TO CLOSE OUT THE SHORT TERM.
USED A BLEND OF MODEL GUIDANCE REGARDING TIMING AS MODEL SOLUTIONS
DO DIFFER ON TIMING AND EVENTUAL TRACK OF THIS SYS BY MIDWEEK.

LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY

UPPER HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE CENTERED NEAR THE FOUR CORNERS REGION
TO BEGIN THE LONG TERM PERIOD. NORTHWEST FLOW WILL BE OVER ARKANSAS.
THIS RIDGE WILL SLOWLY MOVE EAST THROUGH THE PERIOD AND MAY ENTER
WESTERN ARKANSAS THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY.

SEVERAL SHORT WAVES ARE EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH THE NORTHWEST FLOW
AND BRING CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE AREA. ON
WEDNESDAY...THE BEST CHANCE WILL BE IN THE NORTH AND CENTRAL
SECTIONS. THE BEST CHANCES THURSDAY AND FRIDAY WILL GENERALLY BE IN
THE NORTHEAST HALF OF THE AREA. TEMPERATURES WILL BE MAINLY IN THE
90S BUT THE HUMIDITY SHOULD NOT BE OPPRESSIVE...AS IT WAS LAST WEEK.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BATESVILLE AR     94  69  95  72 /   0   0  10   0
CAMDEN AR         96  67  98  69 /   0   0   0   0
HARRISON AR       92  65  92  68 /   0   0  10   0
HOT SPRINGS AR    96  68  97  70 /   0   0   0   0
LITTLE ROCK   AR  95  70  96  72 /   0   0   0   0
MONTICELLO AR     95  69  96  71 /   0   0   0   0
MOUNT IDA AR      96  66  95  68 /   0   0   0   0
MOUNTAIN HOME AR  92  66  93  68 /   0   0  10   0
NEWPORT AR        93  68  93  70 /   0   0   0   0
PINE BLUFF AR     95  69  96  70 /   0   0   0   0
RUSSELLVILLE AR   95  67  96  69 /   0   0  10   0
SEARCY AR         95  68  96  69 /   0   0   0   0
STUTTGART AR      95  69  95  71 /   0   0   0   0
&&

.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&

$$


AVIATION...51




000
FXUS64 KLZK 011127
AFDLZK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
627 AM CDT SAT AUG 1 2015

.AVIATION...
HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES OVER THE AREA THIS MORNING. PATCHY FOG IS
NOTED AT BPK AND ADF WITH LIFR CONDITIONS...BUT WILL BURN OFF
QUICKLY. SCATTERED HIGH CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE DAY WITH
LIGHT EAST WINDS. VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE FOR MUCH OF THE
PERIOD.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 350 AM CDT SAT AUG 1 2015/

SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT

AN AREA OF HIGH CLOUD DEBRIS CONTD TO WORK SEWD ACRS AR LAST NGT AND
EARLY THIS MRNG...ASSOCD WITH CONVECTION THAT OCCURRED IN THE PLAINS
ON FRI. MEANWHILE...SFC HIGH PRES RMND SITUATED ACRS SRN MO AND NWRN
AR...PROVIDING A LGT NELY WIND FLOW OVR THE FA.

THE AFOREMENTIONED SFC HIGH WL MEANDER OVR THE NATURAL STATE THRU
THE WEEKEND...RESULTING IN A STAGNANT WX PATTERN. CONDS TODAY WL BE
SIMILAR TO FRI REGARDING TEMPS...WITH HIGHS MAINLY IN THE LOWER AND
MID 90S. READINGS WL BE A FEW DEGREES WARMER ON SUN AS THE SFC HIGH
SLIPS SWD AND WINDS TAKE ON MORE OF A SWLY COMPONENT. THE GRADUAL
WARMING TREND WL CONT INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...ALONG WITH AN INCRS IN
HUMIDITY LVLS.

SOME OF THE HI-RES MODEL DATA CONT TO INDC SCTD CONVECTION FORMING
LATER TODAY ACRS PARTS OF MO...ALONG WITH A POSSIBLE MCS FORMING OVR
PARTS OF ERN NE/WRN IA. EXPECT MOST OF THIS ACTIVITY TO DIMINISH
TNGT...WITH ASSOCD HIGH CLOUDS SPILLING SEWD ACRS AR OVERNIGHT.

MODELS CONT TO INDC THAT A NEW STORM SYS WL ORGANIZE IN THE SRN
PLAINS BY TUE. THIS FEATURE WL CONT TO WORK EWD...BRINGING AN INCRS
CHC OF SHRA/TSRA TO PARTS OF THE FA TO CLOSE OUT THE SHORT TERM.
USED A BLEND OF MODEL GUIDANCE REGARDING TIMING AS MODEL SOLUTIONS
DO DIFFER ON TIMING AND EVENTUAL TRACK OF THIS SYS BY MIDWEEK.

LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY

UPPER HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE CENTERED NEAR THE FOUR CORNERS REGION
TO BEGIN THE LONG TERM PERIOD. NORTHWEST FLOW WILL BE OVER ARKANSAS.
THIS RIDGE WILL SLOWLY MOVE EAST THROUGH THE PERIOD AND MAY ENTER
WESTERN ARKANSAS THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY.

SEVERAL SHORT WAVES ARE EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH THE NORTHWEST FLOW
AND BRING CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE AREA. ON
WEDNESDAY...THE BEST CHANCE WILL BE IN THE NORTH AND CENTRAL
SECTIONS. THE BEST CHANCES THURSDAY AND FRIDAY WILL GENERALLY BE IN
THE NORTHEAST HALF OF THE AREA. TEMPERATURES WILL BE MAINLY IN THE
90S BUT THE HUMIDITY SHOULD NOT BE OPPRESSIVE...AS IT WAS LAST WEEK.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BATESVILLE AR     94  69  95  72 /   0   0  10   0
CAMDEN AR         96  67  98  69 /   0   0   0   0
HARRISON AR       92  65  92  68 /   0   0  10   0
HOT SPRINGS AR    96  68  97  70 /   0   0   0   0
LITTLE ROCK   AR  95  70  96  72 /   0   0   0   0
MONTICELLO AR     95  69  96  71 /   0   0   0   0
MOUNT IDA AR      96  66  95  68 /   0   0   0   0
MOUNTAIN HOME AR  92  66  93  68 /   0   0  10   0
NEWPORT AR        93  68  93  70 /   0   0   0   0
PINE BLUFF AR     95  69  96  70 /   0   0   0   0
RUSSELLVILLE AR   95  67  96  69 /   0   0  10   0
SEARCY AR         95  68  96  69 /   0   0   0   0
STUTTGART AR      95  69  95  71 /   0   0   0   0
&&

.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&

$$


AVIATION...51




000
FXUS64 KLZK 010851
AFDLZK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
350 AM CDT SAT AUG 1 2015

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT

AN AREA OF HIGH CLOUD DEBRIS CONTD TO WORK SEWD ACRS AR LAST NGT AND
EARLY THIS MRNG...ASSOCD WITH CONVECTION THAT OCCURRED IN THE PLAINS
ON FRI. MEANWHILE...SFC HIGH PRES RMND SITUATED ACRS SRN MO AND NWRN
AR...PROVIDING A LGT NELY WIND FLOW OVR THE FA.

THE AFOREMENTIONED SFC HIGH WL MEANDER OVR THE NATURAL STATE THRU
THE WEEKEND...RESULTING IN A STAGNANT WX PATTERN. CONDS TODAY WL BE
SIMILAR TO FRI REGARDING TEMPS...WITH HIGHS MAINLY IN THE LOWER AND
MID 90S. READINGS WL BE A FEW DEGREES WARMER ON SUN AS THE SFC HIGH
SLIPS SWD AND WINDS TAKE ON MORE OF A SWLY COMPONENT. THE GRADUAL
WARMING TREND WL CONT INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...ALONG WITH AN INCRS IN
HUMIDITY LVLS.

SOME OF THE HI-RES MODEL DATA CONT TO INDC SCTD CONVECTION FORMING
LATER TODAY ACRS PARTS OF MO...ALONG WITH A POSSIBLE MCS FORMING OVR
PARTS OF ERN NE/WRN IA. EXPECT MOST OF THIS ACTIVITY TO DIMINISH
TNGT...WITH ASSOCD HIGH CLOUDS SPILLING SEWD ACRS AR OVERNIGHT.

MODELS CONT TO INDC THAT A NEW STORM SYS WL ORGANIZE IN THE SRN
PLAINS BY TUE. THIS FEATURE WL CONT TO WORK EWD...BRINGING AN INCRS
CHC OF SHRA/TSRA TO PARTS OF THE FA TO CLOSE OUT THE SHORT TERM.
USED A BLEND OF MODEL GUIDANCE REGARDING TIMING AS MODEL SOLUTIONS
DO DIFFER ON TIMING AND EVENTUAL TRACK OF THIS SYS BY MIDWEEK.
&&

.LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY

UPPER HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE CENTERED NEAR THE FOUR CORNERS REGION
TO BEGIN THE LONG TERM PERIOD. NORTHWEST FLOW WILL BE OVER ARKANSAS.
THIS RIDGE WILL SLOWLY MOVE EAST THROUGH THE PERIOD AND MAY ENTER
WESTERN ARKANSAS THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY.

SEVERAL SHORT WAVES ARE EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH THE NORTHWEST FLOW
AND BRING CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE AREA. ON
WEDNESDAY...THE BEST CHANCE WILL BE IN THE NORTH AND CENTRAL
SECTIONS. THE BEST CHANCES THURSDAY AND FRIDAY WILL GENERALLY BE IN
THE NORTHEAST HALF OF THE AREA. TEMPERATURES WILL BE MAINLY IN THE
90S BUT THE HUMIDITY SHOULD NOT BE OPPRESSIVE...AS IT WAS LAST WEEK.
&&

.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...44 / LONG TERM...51



000
FXUS64 KLZK 010851
AFDLZK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
350 AM CDT SAT AUG 1 2015

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT

AN AREA OF HIGH CLOUD DEBRIS CONTD TO WORK SEWD ACRS AR LAST NGT AND
EARLY THIS MRNG...ASSOCD WITH CONVECTION THAT OCCURRED IN THE PLAINS
ON FRI. MEANWHILE...SFC HIGH PRES RMND SITUATED ACRS SRN MO AND NWRN
AR...PROVIDING A LGT NELY WIND FLOW OVR THE FA.

THE AFOREMENTIONED SFC HIGH WL MEANDER OVR THE NATURAL STATE THRU
THE WEEKEND...RESULTING IN A STAGNANT WX PATTERN. CONDS TODAY WL BE
SIMILAR TO FRI REGARDING TEMPS...WITH HIGHS MAINLY IN THE LOWER AND
MID 90S. READINGS WL BE A FEW DEGREES WARMER ON SUN AS THE SFC HIGH
SLIPS SWD AND WINDS TAKE ON MORE OF A SWLY COMPONENT. THE GRADUAL
WARMING TREND WL CONT INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...ALONG WITH AN INCRS IN
HUMIDITY LVLS.

SOME OF THE HI-RES MODEL DATA CONT TO INDC SCTD CONVECTION FORMING
LATER TODAY ACRS PARTS OF MO...ALONG WITH A POSSIBLE MCS FORMING OVR
PARTS OF ERN NE/WRN IA. EXPECT MOST OF THIS ACTIVITY TO DIMINISH
TNGT...WITH ASSOCD HIGH CLOUDS SPILLING SEWD ACRS AR OVERNIGHT.

MODELS CONT TO INDC THAT A NEW STORM SYS WL ORGANIZE IN THE SRN
PLAINS BY TUE. THIS FEATURE WL CONT TO WORK EWD...BRINGING AN INCRS
CHC OF SHRA/TSRA TO PARTS OF THE FA TO CLOSE OUT THE SHORT TERM.
USED A BLEND OF MODEL GUIDANCE REGARDING TIMING AS MODEL SOLUTIONS
DO DIFFER ON TIMING AND EVENTUAL TRACK OF THIS SYS BY MIDWEEK.
&&

.LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY

UPPER HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE CENTERED NEAR THE FOUR CORNERS REGION
TO BEGIN THE LONG TERM PERIOD. NORTHWEST FLOW WILL BE OVER ARKANSAS.
THIS RIDGE WILL SLOWLY MOVE EAST THROUGH THE PERIOD AND MAY ENTER
WESTERN ARKANSAS THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY.

SEVERAL SHORT WAVES ARE EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH THE NORTHWEST FLOW
AND BRING CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE AREA. ON
WEDNESDAY...THE BEST CHANCE WILL BE IN THE NORTH AND CENTRAL
SECTIONS. THE BEST CHANCES THURSDAY AND FRIDAY WILL GENERALLY BE IN
THE NORTHEAST HALF OF THE AREA. TEMPERATURES WILL BE MAINLY IN THE
90S BUT THE HUMIDITY SHOULD NOT BE OPPRESSIVE...AS IT WAS LAST WEEK.
&&

.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...44 / LONG TERM...51



000
FXUS64 KLZK 010851
AFDLZK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
350 AM CDT SAT AUG 1 2015

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT

AN AREA OF HIGH CLOUD DEBRIS CONTD TO WORK SEWD ACRS AR LAST NGT AND
EARLY THIS MRNG...ASSOCD WITH CONVECTION THAT OCCURRED IN THE PLAINS
ON FRI. MEANWHILE...SFC HIGH PRES RMND SITUATED ACRS SRN MO AND NWRN
AR...PROVIDING A LGT NELY WIND FLOW OVR THE FA.

THE AFOREMENTIONED SFC HIGH WL MEANDER OVR THE NATURAL STATE THRU
THE WEEKEND...RESULTING IN A STAGNANT WX PATTERN. CONDS TODAY WL BE
SIMILAR TO FRI REGARDING TEMPS...WITH HIGHS MAINLY IN THE LOWER AND
MID 90S. READINGS WL BE A FEW DEGREES WARMER ON SUN AS THE SFC HIGH
SLIPS SWD AND WINDS TAKE ON MORE OF A SWLY COMPONENT. THE GRADUAL
WARMING TREND WL CONT INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...ALONG WITH AN INCRS IN
HUMIDITY LVLS.

SOME OF THE HI-RES MODEL DATA CONT TO INDC SCTD CONVECTION FORMING
LATER TODAY ACRS PARTS OF MO...ALONG WITH A POSSIBLE MCS FORMING OVR
PARTS OF ERN NE/WRN IA. EXPECT MOST OF THIS ACTIVITY TO DIMINISH
TNGT...WITH ASSOCD HIGH CLOUDS SPILLING SEWD ACRS AR OVERNIGHT.

MODELS CONT TO INDC THAT A NEW STORM SYS WL ORGANIZE IN THE SRN
PLAINS BY TUE. THIS FEATURE WL CONT TO WORK EWD...BRINGING AN INCRS
CHC OF SHRA/TSRA TO PARTS OF THE FA TO CLOSE OUT THE SHORT TERM.
USED A BLEND OF MODEL GUIDANCE REGARDING TIMING AS MODEL SOLUTIONS
DO DIFFER ON TIMING AND EVENTUAL TRACK OF THIS SYS BY MIDWEEK.
&&

.LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY

UPPER HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE CENTERED NEAR THE FOUR CORNERS REGION
TO BEGIN THE LONG TERM PERIOD. NORTHWEST FLOW WILL BE OVER ARKANSAS.
THIS RIDGE WILL SLOWLY MOVE EAST THROUGH THE PERIOD AND MAY ENTER
WESTERN ARKANSAS THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY.

SEVERAL SHORT WAVES ARE EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH THE NORTHWEST FLOW
AND BRING CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE AREA. ON
WEDNESDAY...THE BEST CHANCE WILL BE IN THE NORTH AND CENTRAL
SECTIONS. THE BEST CHANCES THURSDAY AND FRIDAY WILL GENERALLY BE IN
THE NORTHEAST HALF OF THE AREA. TEMPERATURES WILL BE MAINLY IN THE
90S BUT THE HUMIDITY SHOULD NOT BE OPPRESSIVE...AS IT WAS LAST WEEK.
&&

.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...44 / LONG TERM...51



000
FXUS64 KLZK 010851
AFDLZK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
350 AM CDT SAT AUG 1 2015

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT

AN AREA OF HIGH CLOUD DEBRIS CONTD TO WORK SEWD ACRS AR LAST NGT AND
EARLY THIS MRNG...ASSOCD WITH CONVECTION THAT OCCURRED IN THE PLAINS
ON FRI. MEANWHILE...SFC HIGH PRES RMND SITUATED ACRS SRN MO AND NWRN
AR...PROVIDING A LGT NELY WIND FLOW OVR THE FA.

THE AFOREMENTIONED SFC HIGH WL MEANDER OVR THE NATURAL STATE THRU
THE WEEKEND...RESULTING IN A STAGNANT WX PATTERN. CONDS TODAY WL BE
SIMILAR TO FRI REGARDING TEMPS...WITH HIGHS MAINLY IN THE LOWER AND
MID 90S. READINGS WL BE A FEW DEGREES WARMER ON SUN AS THE SFC HIGH
SLIPS SWD AND WINDS TAKE ON MORE OF A SWLY COMPONENT. THE GRADUAL
WARMING TREND WL CONT INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...ALONG WITH AN INCRS IN
HUMIDITY LVLS.

SOME OF THE HI-RES MODEL DATA CONT TO INDC SCTD CONVECTION FORMING
LATER TODAY ACRS PARTS OF MO...ALONG WITH A POSSIBLE MCS FORMING OVR
PARTS OF ERN NE/WRN IA. EXPECT MOST OF THIS ACTIVITY TO DIMINISH
TNGT...WITH ASSOCD HIGH CLOUDS SPILLING SEWD ACRS AR OVERNIGHT.

MODELS CONT TO INDC THAT A NEW STORM SYS WL ORGANIZE IN THE SRN
PLAINS BY TUE. THIS FEATURE WL CONT TO WORK EWD...BRINGING AN INCRS
CHC OF SHRA/TSRA TO PARTS OF THE FA TO CLOSE OUT THE SHORT TERM.
USED A BLEND OF MODEL GUIDANCE REGARDING TIMING AS MODEL SOLUTIONS
DO DIFFER ON TIMING AND EVENTUAL TRACK OF THIS SYS BY MIDWEEK.
&&

.LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY

UPPER HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE CENTERED NEAR THE FOUR CORNERS REGION
TO BEGIN THE LONG TERM PERIOD. NORTHWEST FLOW WILL BE OVER ARKANSAS.
THIS RIDGE WILL SLOWLY MOVE EAST THROUGH THE PERIOD AND MAY ENTER
WESTERN ARKANSAS THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY.

SEVERAL SHORT WAVES ARE EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH THE NORTHWEST FLOW
AND BRING CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE AREA. ON
WEDNESDAY...THE BEST CHANCE WILL BE IN THE NORTH AND CENTRAL
SECTIONS. THE BEST CHANCES THURSDAY AND FRIDAY WILL GENERALLY BE IN
THE NORTHEAST HALF OF THE AREA. TEMPERATURES WILL BE MAINLY IN THE
90S BUT THE HUMIDITY SHOULD NOT BE OPPRESSIVE...AS IT WAS LAST WEEK.
&&

.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...44 / LONG TERM...51



000
FXUS64 KLZK 010851
AFDLZK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
350 AM CDT SAT AUG 1 2015

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT

AN AREA OF HIGH CLOUD DEBRIS CONTD TO WORK SEWD ACRS AR LAST NGT AND
EARLY THIS MRNG...ASSOCD WITH CONVECTION THAT OCCURRED IN THE PLAINS
ON FRI. MEANWHILE...SFC HIGH PRES RMND SITUATED ACRS SRN MO AND NWRN
AR...PROVIDING A LGT NELY WIND FLOW OVR THE FA.

THE AFOREMENTIONED SFC HIGH WL MEANDER OVR THE NATURAL STATE THRU
THE WEEKEND...RESULTING IN A STAGNANT WX PATTERN. CONDS TODAY WL BE
SIMILAR TO FRI REGARDING TEMPS...WITH HIGHS MAINLY IN THE LOWER AND
MID 90S. READINGS WL BE A FEW DEGREES WARMER ON SUN AS THE SFC HIGH
SLIPS SWD AND WINDS TAKE ON MORE OF A SWLY COMPONENT. THE GRADUAL
WARMING TREND WL CONT INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...ALONG WITH AN INCRS IN
HUMIDITY LVLS.

SOME OF THE HI-RES MODEL DATA CONT TO INDC SCTD CONVECTION FORMING
LATER TODAY ACRS PARTS OF MO...ALONG WITH A POSSIBLE MCS FORMING OVR
PARTS OF ERN NE/WRN IA. EXPECT MOST OF THIS ACTIVITY TO DIMINISH
TNGT...WITH ASSOCD HIGH CLOUDS SPILLING SEWD ACRS AR OVERNIGHT.

MODELS CONT TO INDC THAT A NEW STORM SYS WL ORGANIZE IN THE SRN
PLAINS BY TUE. THIS FEATURE WL CONT TO WORK EWD...BRINGING AN INCRS
CHC OF SHRA/TSRA TO PARTS OF THE FA TO CLOSE OUT THE SHORT TERM.
USED A BLEND OF MODEL GUIDANCE REGARDING TIMING AS MODEL SOLUTIONS
DO DIFFER ON TIMING AND EVENTUAL TRACK OF THIS SYS BY MIDWEEK.
&&

.LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY

UPPER HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE CENTERED NEAR THE FOUR CORNERS REGION
TO BEGIN THE LONG TERM PERIOD. NORTHWEST FLOW WILL BE OVER ARKANSAS.
THIS RIDGE WILL SLOWLY MOVE EAST THROUGH THE PERIOD AND MAY ENTER
WESTERN ARKANSAS THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY.

SEVERAL SHORT WAVES ARE EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH THE NORTHWEST FLOW
AND BRING CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE AREA. ON
WEDNESDAY...THE BEST CHANCE WILL BE IN THE NORTH AND CENTRAL
SECTIONS. THE BEST CHANCES THURSDAY AND FRIDAY WILL GENERALLY BE IN
THE NORTHEAST HALF OF THE AREA. TEMPERATURES WILL BE MAINLY IN THE
90S BUT THE HUMIDITY SHOULD NOT BE OPPRESSIVE...AS IT WAS LAST WEEK.
&&

.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...44 / LONG TERM...51




000
FXUS64 KLZK 010851
AFDLZK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
350 AM CDT SAT AUG 1 2015

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT

AN AREA OF HIGH CLOUD DEBRIS CONTD TO WORK SEWD ACRS AR LAST NGT AND
EARLY THIS MRNG...ASSOCD WITH CONVECTION THAT OCCURRED IN THE PLAINS
ON FRI. MEANWHILE...SFC HIGH PRES RMND SITUATED ACRS SRN MO AND NWRN
AR...PROVIDING A LGT NELY WIND FLOW OVR THE FA.

THE AFOREMENTIONED SFC HIGH WL MEANDER OVR THE NATURAL STATE THRU
THE WEEKEND...RESULTING IN A STAGNANT WX PATTERN. CONDS TODAY WL BE
SIMILAR TO FRI REGARDING TEMPS...WITH HIGHS MAINLY IN THE LOWER AND
MID 90S. READINGS WL BE A FEW DEGREES WARMER ON SUN AS THE SFC HIGH
SLIPS SWD AND WINDS TAKE ON MORE OF A SWLY COMPONENT. THE GRADUAL
WARMING TREND WL CONT INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...ALONG WITH AN INCRS IN
HUMIDITY LVLS.

SOME OF THE HI-RES MODEL DATA CONT TO INDC SCTD CONVECTION FORMING
LATER TODAY ACRS PARTS OF MO...ALONG WITH A POSSIBLE MCS FORMING OVR
PARTS OF ERN NE/WRN IA. EXPECT MOST OF THIS ACTIVITY TO DIMINISH
TNGT...WITH ASSOCD HIGH CLOUDS SPILLING SEWD ACRS AR OVERNIGHT.

MODELS CONT TO INDC THAT A NEW STORM SYS WL ORGANIZE IN THE SRN
PLAINS BY TUE. THIS FEATURE WL CONT TO WORK EWD...BRINGING AN INCRS
CHC OF SHRA/TSRA TO PARTS OF THE FA TO CLOSE OUT THE SHORT TERM.
USED A BLEND OF MODEL GUIDANCE REGARDING TIMING AS MODEL SOLUTIONS
DO DIFFER ON TIMING AND EVENTUAL TRACK OF THIS SYS BY MIDWEEK.
&&

.LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY

UPPER HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE CENTERED NEAR THE FOUR CORNERS REGION
TO BEGIN THE LONG TERM PERIOD. NORTHWEST FLOW WILL BE OVER ARKANSAS.
THIS RIDGE WILL SLOWLY MOVE EAST THROUGH THE PERIOD AND MAY ENTER
WESTERN ARKANSAS THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY.

SEVERAL SHORT WAVES ARE EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH THE NORTHWEST FLOW
AND BRING CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE AREA. ON
WEDNESDAY...THE BEST CHANCE WILL BE IN THE NORTH AND CENTRAL
SECTIONS. THE BEST CHANCES THURSDAY AND FRIDAY WILL GENERALLY BE IN
THE NORTHEAST HALF OF THE AREA. TEMPERATURES WILL BE MAINLY IN THE
90S BUT THE HUMIDITY SHOULD NOT BE OPPRESSIVE...AS IT WAS LAST WEEK.
&&

.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...44 / LONG TERM...51




000
FXUS64 KLZK 010851
AFDLZK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
350 AM CDT SAT AUG 1 2015

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT

AN AREA OF HIGH CLOUD DEBRIS CONTD TO WORK SEWD ACRS AR LAST NGT AND
EARLY THIS MRNG...ASSOCD WITH CONVECTION THAT OCCURRED IN THE PLAINS
ON FRI. MEANWHILE...SFC HIGH PRES RMND SITUATED ACRS SRN MO AND NWRN
AR...PROVIDING A LGT NELY WIND FLOW OVR THE FA.

THE AFOREMENTIONED SFC HIGH WL MEANDER OVR THE NATURAL STATE THRU
THE WEEKEND...RESULTING IN A STAGNANT WX PATTERN. CONDS TODAY WL BE
SIMILAR TO FRI REGARDING TEMPS...WITH HIGHS MAINLY IN THE LOWER AND
MID 90S. READINGS WL BE A FEW DEGREES WARMER ON SUN AS THE SFC HIGH
SLIPS SWD AND WINDS TAKE ON MORE OF A SWLY COMPONENT. THE GRADUAL
WARMING TREND WL CONT INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...ALONG WITH AN INCRS IN
HUMIDITY LVLS.

SOME OF THE HI-RES MODEL DATA CONT TO INDC SCTD CONVECTION FORMING
LATER TODAY ACRS PARTS OF MO...ALONG WITH A POSSIBLE MCS FORMING OVR
PARTS OF ERN NE/WRN IA. EXPECT MOST OF THIS ACTIVITY TO DIMINISH
TNGT...WITH ASSOCD HIGH CLOUDS SPILLING SEWD ACRS AR OVERNIGHT.

MODELS CONT TO INDC THAT A NEW STORM SYS WL ORGANIZE IN THE SRN
PLAINS BY TUE. THIS FEATURE WL CONT TO WORK EWD...BRINGING AN INCRS
CHC OF SHRA/TSRA TO PARTS OF THE FA TO CLOSE OUT THE SHORT TERM.
USED A BLEND OF MODEL GUIDANCE REGARDING TIMING AS MODEL SOLUTIONS
DO DIFFER ON TIMING AND EVENTUAL TRACK OF THIS SYS BY MIDWEEK.
&&

.LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY

UPPER HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE CENTERED NEAR THE FOUR CORNERS REGION
TO BEGIN THE LONG TERM PERIOD. NORTHWEST FLOW WILL BE OVER ARKANSAS.
THIS RIDGE WILL SLOWLY MOVE EAST THROUGH THE PERIOD AND MAY ENTER
WESTERN ARKANSAS THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY.

SEVERAL SHORT WAVES ARE EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH THE NORTHWEST FLOW
AND BRING CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE AREA. ON
WEDNESDAY...THE BEST CHANCE WILL BE IN THE NORTH AND CENTRAL
SECTIONS. THE BEST CHANCES THURSDAY AND FRIDAY WILL GENERALLY BE IN
THE NORTHEAST HALF OF THE AREA. TEMPERATURES WILL BE MAINLY IN THE
90S BUT THE HUMIDITY SHOULD NOT BE OPPRESSIVE...AS IT WAS LAST WEEK.
&&

.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...44 / LONG TERM...51




000
FXUS64 KLZK 010851
AFDLZK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
350 AM CDT SAT AUG 1 2015

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT

AN AREA OF HIGH CLOUD DEBRIS CONTD TO WORK SEWD ACRS AR LAST NGT AND
EARLY THIS MRNG...ASSOCD WITH CONVECTION THAT OCCURRED IN THE PLAINS
ON FRI. MEANWHILE...SFC HIGH PRES RMND SITUATED ACRS SRN MO AND NWRN
AR...PROVIDING A LGT NELY WIND FLOW OVR THE FA.

THE AFOREMENTIONED SFC HIGH WL MEANDER OVR THE NATURAL STATE THRU
THE WEEKEND...RESULTING IN A STAGNANT WX PATTERN. CONDS TODAY WL BE
SIMILAR TO FRI REGARDING TEMPS...WITH HIGHS MAINLY IN THE LOWER AND
MID 90S. READINGS WL BE A FEW DEGREES WARMER ON SUN AS THE SFC HIGH
SLIPS SWD AND WINDS TAKE ON MORE OF A SWLY COMPONENT. THE GRADUAL
WARMING TREND WL CONT INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...ALONG WITH AN INCRS IN
HUMIDITY LVLS.

SOME OF THE HI-RES MODEL DATA CONT TO INDC SCTD CONVECTION FORMING
LATER TODAY ACRS PARTS OF MO...ALONG WITH A POSSIBLE MCS FORMING OVR
PARTS OF ERN NE/WRN IA. EXPECT MOST OF THIS ACTIVITY TO DIMINISH
TNGT...WITH ASSOCD HIGH CLOUDS SPILLING SEWD ACRS AR OVERNIGHT.

MODELS CONT TO INDC THAT A NEW STORM SYS WL ORGANIZE IN THE SRN
PLAINS BY TUE. THIS FEATURE WL CONT TO WORK EWD...BRINGING AN INCRS
CHC OF SHRA/TSRA TO PARTS OF THE FA TO CLOSE OUT THE SHORT TERM.
USED A BLEND OF MODEL GUIDANCE REGARDING TIMING AS MODEL SOLUTIONS
DO DIFFER ON TIMING AND EVENTUAL TRACK OF THIS SYS BY MIDWEEK.
&&

.LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY

UPPER HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE CENTERED NEAR THE FOUR CORNERS REGION
TO BEGIN THE LONG TERM PERIOD. NORTHWEST FLOW WILL BE OVER ARKANSAS.
THIS RIDGE WILL SLOWLY MOVE EAST THROUGH THE PERIOD AND MAY ENTER
WESTERN ARKANSAS THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY.

SEVERAL SHORT WAVES ARE EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH THE NORTHWEST FLOW
AND BRING CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE AREA. ON
WEDNESDAY...THE BEST CHANCE WILL BE IN THE NORTH AND CENTRAL
SECTIONS. THE BEST CHANCES THURSDAY AND FRIDAY WILL GENERALLY BE IN
THE NORTHEAST HALF OF THE AREA. TEMPERATURES WILL BE MAINLY IN THE
90S BUT THE HUMIDITY SHOULD NOT BE OPPRESSIVE...AS IT WAS LAST WEEK.
&&

.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...44 / LONG TERM...51




000
FXUS64 KLZK 010538
AFDLZK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
1238 AM CDT SAT AUG 1 2015

.AVIATION...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE OVER THE AREA THROUGH THE PERIOD. HIGH
CIRRUS CLOUDS CONTINUE TO SPREAD OVER THE STATE FROM CONVECTION
OVER TEXAS AND OKLAHOMA. THESE CLOUDS WILL DISSIPATE SOMEWHAT BY
SUNRISE. VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 805 PM CDT FRI JUL 31 2015/

AVIATION...

OTHER THAN SOME HIGH CLOUDS...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
TONIGHT/SATURDAY. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE TONIGHT AND
EAST/NORTHEAST AT 6 TO 12 MPH ON SATURDAY. IN PARTS OF THE OZARK
MOUNTAINS...WINDS ON SATURDAY WILL BE WEST/NORTHWEST AT 4 TO
8 MPH. (46)

DISCUSSION...

MAIN CONCERNS THIS FORECAST CYCLE ARE ANY CHANCES OF CONVECTION
THROUGH THE PERIOD...THEN A GRADUAL WARM UP INTO NEXT WEEK.
ALTHOUGH AN UPPER NW FLOW SETS UP FOR PART OF THE REGION...AND SOME
POSSIBLE SHORT WAVE ENERGY COULD MOVE CLOSE TO AR...AND DEVELOP
ISOLATED CONVECTION AS TEMPS WARM LATE INTO THE WEEKEND AND NEXT
WEEK.

TODAY A DRIER AND MILDER AIRMASS HAS FILTER INTO AR WITH A NE TO
E SURFACE FLOW. ONLY A SLIGHT CHANCE OF CONVECTION IS POSSIBLE IN FAR
WEST AR BASED ON CURRENT AND EXPECTED TRENDS...ALTHOUGH CURRENTLY
ONLY WEAK CONVECTION IS SEEN OVER EASTERN OK. SOME UPPER SHORT
WAVE ENERGY...ALBEIT WEAK...IS SEEN IN THE UPPER NW FLOW.
LOCALIZED INSTABILITY REMAINS WHERE THURSDAY CONVECTION SET UP
OVER WESTERN AR. OTHERWISE...TEMPS WERE A BIT COOLER TO AROUND
NORMAL VALUES THIS AFTERNOON.

SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT

WILL KEEP A SLIGHT CHANCE IN THE EVENING FOR FAR WESTERN
AR...OTHERWISE A DRY FORECAST WITH A WARMING TREND FOR THE WEEKEND
AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE UPPER RIDGE DOES MOVE A BIT MORE
WEST...BUT STILL HAS INFLUENCE OVER AR WITH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
IN PLACE. ALOFT A BROAD UPPER TROUGH WILL BE OVER THE EASTERN U.S.
AND MUCH OF ANY SHORT WAVE ENERGY DOES STAY NORTH OF AR IN THE
MODEL GUIDANCE...BUT AN ISOLATED STORM MAY BE SEEN. CONVECTION AT
THIS TIME WOULD BE LOW AND ISOLATED AND WILL NOT INCLUDE TO EARLY
NEXT WEEK. TEMPS WILL SLOWLY WARM OVER THE SHORT TERM AND BE A BIT
ABOVE NORMAL VALUES...BUT SHOULD HOLD BELOW 100 DEGREES. MOISTURE
WILL ALSO SLOWLY RETURN INTO NEXT WEEK...BUT DO NOT EXPECT ANY
HEAT ADVISORIES UNTIL NEXT WEEK.

LONG TERM...TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...

THE REGION WILL REMAIN UNDER THE NERN EDGE OF AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
OF HIGH PRESSURE DURING THE EXTENDED TERM...WITH A PREDOMINANT NWLY
FLOW. ANOTHER FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL LIKELY DROP DOWN ACROSS THE AREA
LATE IN THE TERM. TIMING IS A BIT UNCERTAIN AT THIS TIME...AND FOR
THE MOMENT I WILL TEND TO DEFER MORE TOWARD A FRIDAY TO FRIDAY NIGHT
TIME FRAME...WHICH WOULD BRING INCREASING CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION
TO THE STATE. THE MAIN EFFECT OF THE FRONT...LIKE THE LAST ONE THAT
PASSED THROUGH...WOULD BE SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES AND LOWER
DEWPOINTS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BATESVILLE AR     93  69  94  71 /   0  10  10  10
CAMDEN AR         96  69  98  72 /   0   0   0   0
HARRISON AR       91  67  92  69 /   0  10  10   0
HOT SPRINGS AR    96  69  96  72 /   0   0  10   0
LITTLE ROCK   AR  95  71  97  72 /   0  10   0   0
MONTICELLO AR     94  70  97  72 /   0   0   0   0
MOUNT IDA AR      95  67  95  70 /   0   0  10  10
MOUNTAIN HOME AR  92  67  92  68 /   0  10  10   0
NEWPORT AR        92  69  94  71 /   0   0  10   0
PINE BLUFF AR     94  69  96  71 /   0   0   0   0
RUSSELLVILLE AR   95  68  96  71 /   0  10  10   0
SEARCY AR         94  69  95  71 /   0   0  10  10
STUTTGART AR      93  70  95  71 /   0   0   0   0
&&

.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&

$$


AVIATION...51




000
FXUS64 KLZK 010538
AFDLZK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
1238 AM CDT SAT AUG 1 2015

.AVIATION...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE OVER THE AREA THROUGH THE PERIOD. HIGH
CIRRUS CLOUDS CONTINUE TO SPREAD OVER THE STATE FROM CONVECTION
OVER TEXAS AND OKLAHOMA. THESE CLOUDS WILL DISSIPATE SOMEWHAT BY
SUNRISE. VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 805 PM CDT FRI JUL 31 2015/

AVIATION...

OTHER THAN SOME HIGH CLOUDS...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
TONIGHT/SATURDAY. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE TONIGHT AND
EAST/NORTHEAST AT 6 TO 12 MPH ON SATURDAY. IN PARTS OF THE OZARK
MOUNTAINS...WINDS ON SATURDAY WILL BE WEST/NORTHWEST AT 4 TO
8 MPH. (46)

DISCUSSION...

MAIN CONCERNS THIS FORECAST CYCLE ARE ANY CHANCES OF CONVECTION
THROUGH THE PERIOD...THEN A GRADUAL WARM UP INTO NEXT WEEK.
ALTHOUGH AN UPPER NW FLOW SETS UP FOR PART OF THE REGION...AND SOME
POSSIBLE SHORT WAVE ENERGY COULD MOVE CLOSE TO AR...AND DEVELOP
ISOLATED CONVECTION AS TEMPS WARM LATE INTO THE WEEKEND AND NEXT
WEEK.

TODAY A DRIER AND MILDER AIRMASS HAS FILTER INTO AR WITH A NE TO
E SURFACE FLOW. ONLY A SLIGHT CHANCE OF CONVECTION IS POSSIBLE IN FAR
WEST AR BASED ON CURRENT AND EXPECTED TRENDS...ALTHOUGH CURRENTLY
ONLY WEAK CONVECTION IS SEEN OVER EASTERN OK. SOME UPPER SHORT
WAVE ENERGY...ALBEIT WEAK...IS SEEN IN THE UPPER NW FLOW.
LOCALIZED INSTABILITY REMAINS WHERE THURSDAY CONVECTION SET UP
OVER WESTERN AR. OTHERWISE...TEMPS WERE A BIT COOLER TO AROUND
NORMAL VALUES THIS AFTERNOON.

SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT

WILL KEEP A SLIGHT CHANCE IN THE EVENING FOR FAR WESTERN
AR...OTHERWISE A DRY FORECAST WITH A WARMING TREND FOR THE WEEKEND
AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE UPPER RIDGE DOES MOVE A BIT MORE
WEST...BUT STILL HAS INFLUENCE OVER AR WITH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
IN PLACE. ALOFT A BROAD UPPER TROUGH WILL BE OVER THE EASTERN U.S.
AND MUCH OF ANY SHORT WAVE ENERGY DOES STAY NORTH OF AR IN THE
MODEL GUIDANCE...BUT AN ISOLATED STORM MAY BE SEEN. CONVECTION AT
THIS TIME WOULD BE LOW AND ISOLATED AND WILL NOT INCLUDE TO EARLY
NEXT WEEK. TEMPS WILL SLOWLY WARM OVER THE SHORT TERM AND BE A BIT
ABOVE NORMAL VALUES...BUT SHOULD HOLD BELOW 100 DEGREES. MOISTURE
WILL ALSO SLOWLY RETURN INTO NEXT WEEK...BUT DO NOT EXPECT ANY
HEAT ADVISORIES UNTIL NEXT WEEK.

LONG TERM...TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...

THE REGION WILL REMAIN UNDER THE NERN EDGE OF AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
OF HIGH PRESSURE DURING THE EXTENDED TERM...WITH A PREDOMINANT NWLY
FLOW. ANOTHER FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL LIKELY DROP DOWN ACROSS THE AREA
LATE IN THE TERM. TIMING IS A BIT UNCERTAIN AT THIS TIME...AND FOR
THE MOMENT I WILL TEND TO DEFER MORE TOWARD A FRIDAY TO FRIDAY NIGHT
TIME FRAME...WHICH WOULD BRING INCREASING CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION
TO THE STATE. THE MAIN EFFECT OF THE FRONT...LIKE THE LAST ONE THAT
PASSED THROUGH...WOULD BE SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES AND LOWER
DEWPOINTS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BATESVILLE AR     93  69  94  71 /   0  10  10  10
CAMDEN AR         96  69  98  72 /   0   0   0   0
HARRISON AR       91  67  92  69 /   0  10  10   0
HOT SPRINGS AR    96  69  96  72 /   0   0  10   0
LITTLE ROCK   AR  95  71  97  72 /   0  10   0   0
MONTICELLO AR     94  70  97  72 /   0   0   0   0
MOUNT IDA AR      95  67  95  70 /   0   0  10  10
MOUNTAIN HOME AR  92  67  92  68 /   0  10  10   0
NEWPORT AR        92  69  94  71 /   0   0  10   0
PINE BLUFF AR     94  69  96  71 /   0   0   0   0
RUSSELLVILLE AR   95  68  96  71 /   0  10  10   0
SEARCY AR         94  69  95  71 /   0   0  10  10
STUTTGART AR      93  70  95  71 /   0   0   0   0
&&

.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&

$$


AVIATION...51




000
FXUS64 KLZK 010109 AAA
AFDLZK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR AVIATION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
805 PM CDT FRI JUL 31 2015

.AVIATION...

OTHER THAN SOME HIGH CLOUDS...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
TONIGHT/SATURDAY. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE TONIGHT AND
EAST/NORTHEAST AT 6 TO 12 MPH ON SATURDAY. IN PARTS OF THE OZARK
MOUNTAINS...WINDS ON SATURDAY WILL BE WEST/NORTHWEST AT 4 TO
8 MPH. (46)

&&

.DISCUSSION...

MAIN CONCERNS THIS FORECAST CYCLE ARE ANY CHANCES OF CONVECTION
THROUGH THE PERIOD...THEN A GRADUAL WARM UP INTO NEXT WEEK.
ALTHOUGH AN UPPER NW FLOW SETS UP FOR PART OF THE REGION...AND SOME
POSSIBLE SHORT WAVE ENERGY COULD MOVE CLOSE TO AR...AND DEVELOP
ISOLATED CONVECTION AS TEMPS WARM LATE INTO THE WEEKEND AND NEXT
WEEK.

TODAY A DRIER AND MILDER AIRMASS HAS FILTER INTO AR WITH A NE TO
E SURFACE FLOW. ONLY A SLIGHT CHANCE OF CONVECTION IS POSSIBLE IN FAR
WEST AR BASED ON CURRENT AND EXPECTED TRENDS...ALTHOUGH CURRENTLY
ONLY WEAK CONVECTION IS SEEN OVER EASTERN OK. SOME UPPER SHORT
WAVE ENERGY...ALBEIT WEAK...IS SEEN IN THE UPPER NW FLOW.
LOCALIZED INSTABILITY REMAINS WHERE THURSDAY CONVECTION SET UP
OVER WESTERN AR. OTHERWISE...TEMPS WERE A BIT COOLER TO AROUND
NORMAL VALUES THIS AFTERNOON.

&&

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT

WILL KEEP A SLIGHT CHANCE IN THE EVENING FOR FAR WESTERN
AR...OTHERWISE A DRY FORECAST WITH A WARMING TREND FOR THE WEEKEND
AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE UPPER RIDGE DOES MOVE A BIT MORE
WEST...BUT STILL HAS INFLUENCE OVER AR WITH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
IN PLACE. ALOFT A BROAD UPPER TROUGH WILL BE OVER THE EASTERN U.S.
AND MUCH OF ANY SHORT WAVE ENERGY DOES STAY NORTH OF AR IN THE
MODEL GUIDANCE...BUT AN ISOLATED STORM MAY BE SEEN. CONVECTION AT
THIS TIME WOULD BE LOW AND ISOLATED AND WILL NOT INCLUDE TO EARLY
NEXT WEEK. TEMPS WILL SLOWLY WARM OVER THE SHORT TERM AND BE A BIT
ABOVE NORMAL VALUES...BUT SHOULD HOLD BELOW 100 DEGREES. MOISTURE
WILL ALSO SLOWLY RETURN INTO NEXT WEEK...BUT DO NOT EXPECT ANY
HEAT ADVISORIES UNTIL NEXT WEEK.

&&

.LONG TERM...TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...

THE REGION WILL REMAIN UNDER THE NERN EDGE OF AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
OF HIGH PRESSURE DURING THE EXTENDED TERM...WITH A PREDOMINANT NWLY
FLOW. ANOTHER FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL LIKELY DROP DOWN ACROSS THE AREA
LATE IN THE TERM. TIMING IS A BIT UNCERTAIN AT THIS TIME...AND FOR
THE MOMENT I WILL TEND TO DEFER MORE TOWARD A FRIDAY TO FRIDAY NIGHT
TIME FRAME...WHICH WOULD BRING INCREASING CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION
TO THE STATE. THE MAIN EFFECT OF THE FRONT...LIKE THE LAST ONE THAT
PASSED THROUGH...WOULD BE SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES AND LOWER
DEWPOINTS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BATESVILLE AR     67  93  69  94 /   0   0  10  10
CAMDEN AR         68  96  69  98 /   0   0   0   0
HARRISON AR       65  91  67  92 /   0   0  10  10
HOT SPRINGS AR    68  96  69  97 /   0   0   0  10
LITTLE ROCK   AR  69  95  71  97 /   0   0  10   0
MONTICELLO AR     69  94  70  97 /   0   0   0   0
MOUNT IDA AR      66  95  67  95 /   0   0   0  10
MOUNTAIN HOME AR  66  92  67  92 /   0   0  10  10
NEWPORT AR        66  92  69  94 /   0   0   0  10
PINE BLUFF AR     68  94  69  96 /   0   0   0   0
RUSSELLVILLE AR   67  95  68  96 /   0   0  10  10
SEARCY AR         67  94  69  95 /   0   0   0  10
STUTTGART AR      69  93  70  95 /   0   0   0   0
&&

.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...59 / LONG TERM...53




000
FXUS64 KLZK 010109 AAA
AFDLZK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR AVIATION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
805 PM CDT FRI JUL 31 2015

.AVIATION...

OTHER THAN SOME HIGH CLOUDS...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
TONIGHT/SATURDAY. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE TONIGHT AND
EAST/NORTHEAST AT 6 TO 12 MPH ON SATURDAY. IN PARTS OF THE OZARK
MOUNTAINS...WINDS ON SATURDAY WILL BE WEST/NORTHWEST AT 4 TO
8 MPH. (46)

&&

.DISCUSSION...

MAIN CONCERNS THIS FORECAST CYCLE ARE ANY CHANCES OF CONVECTION
THROUGH THE PERIOD...THEN A GRADUAL WARM UP INTO NEXT WEEK.
ALTHOUGH AN UPPER NW FLOW SETS UP FOR PART OF THE REGION...AND SOME
POSSIBLE SHORT WAVE ENERGY COULD MOVE CLOSE TO AR...AND DEVELOP
ISOLATED CONVECTION AS TEMPS WARM LATE INTO THE WEEKEND AND NEXT
WEEK.

TODAY A DRIER AND MILDER AIRMASS HAS FILTER INTO AR WITH A NE TO
E SURFACE FLOW. ONLY A SLIGHT CHANCE OF CONVECTION IS POSSIBLE IN FAR
WEST AR BASED ON CURRENT AND EXPECTED TRENDS...ALTHOUGH CURRENTLY
ONLY WEAK CONVECTION IS SEEN OVER EASTERN OK. SOME UPPER SHORT
WAVE ENERGY...ALBEIT WEAK...IS SEEN IN THE UPPER NW FLOW.
LOCALIZED INSTABILITY REMAINS WHERE THURSDAY CONVECTION SET UP
OVER WESTERN AR. OTHERWISE...TEMPS WERE A BIT COOLER TO AROUND
NORMAL VALUES THIS AFTERNOON.

&&

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT

WILL KEEP A SLIGHT CHANCE IN THE EVENING FOR FAR WESTERN
AR...OTHERWISE A DRY FORECAST WITH A WARMING TREND FOR THE WEEKEND
AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE UPPER RIDGE DOES MOVE A BIT MORE
WEST...BUT STILL HAS INFLUENCE OVER AR WITH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
IN PLACE. ALOFT A BROAD UPPER TROUGH WILL BE OVER THE EASTERN U.S.
AND MUCH OF ANY SHORT WAVE ENERGY DOES STAY NORTH OF AR IN THE
MODEL GUIDANCE...BUT AN ISOLATED STORM MAY BE SEEN. CONVECTION AT
THIS TIME WOULD BE LOW AND ISOLATED AND WILL NOT INCLUDE TO EARLY
NEXT WEEK. TEMPS WILL SLOWLY WARM OVER THE SHORT TERM AND BE A BIT
ABOVE NORMAL VALUES...BUT SHOULD HOLD BELOW 100 DEGREES. MOISTURE
WILL ALSO SLOWLY RETURN INTO NEXT WEEK...BUT DO NOT EXPECT ANY
HEAT ADVISORIES UNTIL NEXT WEEK.

&&

.LONG TERM...TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...

THE REGION WILL REMAIN UNDER THE NERN EDGE OF AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
OF HIGH PRESSURE DURING THE EXTENDED TERM...WITH A PREDOMINANT NWLY
FLOW. ANOTHER FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL LIKELY DROP DOWN ACROSS THE AREA
LATE IN THE TERM. TIMING IS A BIT UNCERTAIN AT THIS TIME...AND FOR
THE MOMENT I WILL TEND TO DEFER MORE TOWARD A FRIDAY TO FRIDAY NIGHT
TIME FRAME...WHICH WOULD BRING INCREASING CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION
TO THE STATE. THE MAIN EFFECT OF THE FRONT...LIKE THE LAST ONE THAT
PASSED THROUGH...WOULD BE SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES AND LOWER
DEWPOINTS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BATESVILLE AR     67  93  69  94 /   0   0  10  10
CAMDEN AR         68  96  69  98 /   0   0   0   0
HARRISON AR       65  91  67  92 /   0   0  10  10
HOT SPRINGS AR    68  96  69  97 /   0   0   0  10
LITTLE ROCK   AR  69  95  71  97 /   0   0  10   0
MONTICELLO AR     69  94  70  97 /   0   0   0   0
MOUNT IDA AR      66  95  67  95 /   0   0   0  10
MOUNTAIN HOME AR  66  92  67  92 /   0   0  10  10
NEWPORT AR        66  92  69  94 /   0   0   0  10
PINE BLUFF AR     68  94  69  96 /   0   0   0   0
RUSSELLVILLE AR   67  95  68  96 /   0   0  10  10
SEARCY AR         67  94  69  95 /   0   0   0  10
STUTTGART AR      69  93  70  95 /   0   0   0   0
&&

.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...59 / LONG TERM...53



000
FXUS64 KLZK 010109 AAA
AFDLZK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR AVIATION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
805 PM CDT FRI JUL 31 2015

.AVIATION...

OTHER THAN SOME HIGH CLOUDS...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
TONIGHT/SATURDAY. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE TONIGHT AND
EAST/NORTHEAST AT 6 TO 12 MPH ON SATURDAY. IN PARTS OF THE OZARK
MOUNTAINS...WINDS ON SATURDAY WILL BE WEST/NORTHWEST AT 4 TO
8 MPH. (46)

&&

.DISCUSSION...

MAIN CONCERNS THIS FORECAST CYCLE ARE ANY CHANCES OF CONVECTION
THROUGH THE PERIOD...THEN A GRADUAL WARM UP INTO NEXT WEEK.
ALTHOUGH AN UPPER NW FLOW SETS UP FOR PART OF THE REGION...AND SOME
POSSIBLE SHORT WAVE ENERGY COULD MOVE CLOSE TO AR...AND DEVELOP
ISOLATED CONVECTION AS TEMPS WARM LATE INTO THE WEEKEND AND NEXT
WEEK.

TODAY A DRIER AND MILDER AIRMASS HAS FILTER INTO AR WITH A NE TO
E SURFACE FLOW. ONLY A SLIGHT CHANCE OF CONVECTION IS POSSIBLE IN FAR
WEST AR BASED ON CURRENT AND EXPECTED TRENDS...ALTHOUGH CURRENTLY
ONLY WEAK CONVECTION IS SEEN OVER EASTERN OK. SOME UPPER SHORT
WAVE ENERGY...ALBEIT WEAK...IS SEEN IN THE UPPER NW FLOW.
LOCALIZED INSTABILITY REMAINS WHERE THURSDAY CONVECTION SET UP
OVER WESTERN AR. OTHERWISE...TEMPS WERE A BIT COOLER TO AROUND
NORMAL VALUES THIS AFTERNOON.

&&

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT

WILL KEEP A SLIGHT CHANCE IN THE EVENING FOR FAR WESTERN
AR...OTHERWISE A DRY FORECAST WITH A WARMING TREND FOR THE WEEKEND
AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE UPPER RIDGE DOES MOVE A BIT MORE
WEST...BUT STILL HAS INFLUENCE OVER AR WITH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
IN PLACE. ALOFT A BROAD UPPER TROUGH WILL BE OVER THE EASTERN U.S.
AND MUCH OF ANY SHORT WAVE ENERGY DOES STAY NORTH OF AR IN THE
MODEL GUIDANCE...BUT AN ISOLATED STORM MAY BE SEEN. CONVECTION AT
THIS TIME WOULD BE LOW AND ISOLATED AND WILL NOT INCLUDE TO EARLY
NEXT WEEK. TEMPS WILL SLOWLY WARM OVER THE SHORT TERM AND BE A BIT
ABOVE NORMAL VALUES...BUT SHOULD HOLD BELOW 100 DEGREES. MOISTURE
WILL ALSO SLOWLY RETURN INTO NEXT WEEK...BUT DO NOT EXPECT ANY
HEAT ADVISORIES UNTIL NEXT WEEK.

&&

.LONG TERM...TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...

THE REGION WILL REMAIN UNDER THE NERN EDGE OF AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
OF HIGH PRESSURE DURING THE EXTENDED TERM...WITH A PREDOMINANT NWLY
FLOW. ANOTHER FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL LIKELY DROP DOWN ACROSS THE AREA
LATE IN THE TERM. TIMING IS A BIT UNCERTAIN AT THIS TIME...AND FOR
THE MOMENT I WILL TEND TO DEFER MORE TOWARD A FRIDAY TO FRIDAY NIGHT
TIME FRAME...WHICH WOULD BRING INCREASING CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION
TO THE STATE. THE MAIN EFFECT OF THE FRONT...LIKE THE LAST ONE THAT
PASSED THROUGH...WOULD BE SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES AND LOWER
DEWPOINTS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BATESVILLE AR     67  93  69  94 /   0   0  10  10
CAMDEN AR         68  96  69  98 /   0   0   0   0
HARRISON AR       65  91  67  92 /   0   0  10  10
HOT SPRINGS AR    68  96  69  97 /   0   0   0  10
LITTLE ROCK   AR  69  95  71  97 /   0   0  10   0
MONTICELLO AR     69  94  70  97 /   0   0   0   0
MOUNT IDA AR      66  95  67  95 /   0   0   0  10
MOUNTAIN HOME AR  66  92  67  92 /   0   0  10  10
NEWPORT AR        66  92  69  94 /   0   0   0  10
PINE BLUFF AR     68  94  69  96 /   0   0   0   0
RUSSELLVILLE AR   67  95  68  96 /   0   0  10  10
SEARCY AR         67  94  69  95 /   0   0   0  10
STUTTGART AR      69  93  70  95 /   0   0   0   0
&&

.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...59 / LONG TERM...53



000
FXUS64 KLZK 010109 AAA
AFDLZK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR AVIATION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
805 PM CDT FRI JUL 31 2015

.AVIATION...

OTHER THAN SOME HIGH CLOUDS...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
TONIGHT/SATURDAY. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE TONIGHT AND
EAST/NORTHEAST AT 6 TO 12 MPH ON SATURDAY. IN PARTS OF THE OZARK
MOUNTAINS...WINDS ON SATURDAY WILL BE WEST/NORTHWEST AT 4 TO
8 MPH. (46)

&&

.DISCUSSION...

MAIN CONCERNS THIS FORECAST CYCLE ARE ANY CHANCES OF CONVECTION
THROUGH THE PERIOD...THEN A GRADUAL WARM UP INTO NEXT WEEK.
ALTHOUGH AN UPPER NW FLOW SETS UP FOR PART OF THE REGION...AND SOME
POSSIBLE SHORT WAVE ENERGY COULD MOVE CLOSE TO AR...AND DEVELOP
ISOLATED CONVECTION AS TEMPS WARM LATE INTO THE WEEKEND AND NEXT
WEEK.

TODAY A DRIER AND MILDER AIRMASS HAS FILTER INTO AR WITH A NE TO
E SURFACE FLOW. ONLY A SLIGHT CHANCE OF CONVECTION IS POSSIBLE IN FAR
WEST AR BASED ON CURRENT AND EXPECTED TRENDS...ALTHOUGH CURRENTLY
ONLY WEAK CONVECTION IS SEEN OVER EASTERN OK. SOME UPPER SHORT
WAVE ENERGY...ALBEIT WEAK...IS SEEN IN THE UPPER NW FLOW.
LOCALIZED INSTABILITY REMAINS WHERE THURSDAY CONVECTION SET UP
OVER WESTERN AR. OTHERWISE...TEMPS WERE A BIT COOLER TO AROUND
NORMAL VALUES THIS AFTERNOON.

&&

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT

WILL KEEP A SLIGHT CHANCE IN THE EVENING FOR FAR WESTERN
AR...OTHERWISE A DRY FORECAST WITH A WARMING TREND FOR THE WEEKEND
AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE UPPER RIDGE DOES MOVE A BIT MORE
WEST...BUT STILL HAS INFLUENCE OVER AR WITH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
IN PLACE. ALOFT A BROAD UPPER TROUGH WILL BE OVER THE EASTERN U.S.
AND MUCH OF ANY SHORT WAVE ENERGY DOES STAY NORTH OF AR IN THE
MODEL GUIDANCE...BUT AN ISOLATED STORM MAY BE SEEN. CONVECTION AT
THIS TIME WOULD BE LOW AND ISOLATED AND WILL NOT INCLUDE TO EARLY
NEXT WEEK. TEMPS WILL SLOWLY WARM OVER THE SHORT TERM AND BE A BIT
ABOVE NORMAL VALUES...BUT SHOULD HOLD BELOW 100 DEGREES. MOISTURE
WILL ALSO SLOWLY RETURN INTO NEXT WEEK...BUT DO NOT EXPECT ANY
HEAT ADVISORIES UNTIL NEXT WEEK.

&&

.LONG TERM...TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...

THE REGION WILL REMAIN UNDER THE NERN EDGE OF AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
OF HIGH PRESSURE DURING THE EXTENDED TERM...WITH A PREDOMINANT NWLY
FLOW. ANOTHER FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL LIKELY DROP DOWN ACROSS THE AREA
LATE IN THE TERM. TIMING IS A BIT UNCERTAIN AT THIS TIME...AND FOR
THE MOMENT I WILL TEND TO DEFER MORE TOWARD A FRIDAY TO FRIDAY NIGHT
TIME FRAME...WHICH WOULD BRING INCREASING CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION
TO THE STATE. THE MAIN EFFECT OF THE FRONT...LIKE THE LAST ONE THAT
PASSED THROUGH...WOULD BE SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES AND LOWER
DEWPOINTS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BATESVILLE AR     67  93  69  94 /   0   0  10  10
CAMDEN AR         68  96  69  98 /   0   0   0   0
HARRISON AR       65  91  67  92 /   0   0  10  10
HOT SPRINGS AR    68  96  69  97 /   0   0   0  10
LITTLE ROCK   AR  69  95  71  97 /   0   0  10   0
MONTICELLO AR     69  94  70  97 /   0   0   0   0
MOUNT IDA AR      66  95  67  95 /   0   0   0  10
MOUNTAIN HOME AR  66  92  67  92 /   0   0  10  10
NEWPORT AR        66  92  69  94 /   0   0   0  10
PINE BLUFF AR     68  94  69  96 /   0   0   0   0
RUSSELLVILLE AR   67  95  68  96 /   0   0  10  10
SEARCY AR         67  94  69  95 /   0   0   0  10
STUTTGART AR      69  93  70  95 /   0   0   0   0
&&

.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...59 / LONG TERM...53




000
FXUS64 KLZK 311929
AFDLZK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
229 PM CDT FRI JUL 31 2015

.DISCUSSION...

MAIN CONCERNS THIS FORECAST CYCLE ARE ANY CHANCES OF CONVECTION
THROUGH THE PERIOD...THEN A GRADUAL WARM UP INTO NEXT WEEK.
ALTHOUGH AN UPPER NW FLOW SETS UP FOR PART OF THE REGION...AND SOME
POSSIBLE SHORT WAVE ENERGY COULD MOVE CLOSE TO AR...AND DEVELOP
ISOLATED CONVECTION AS TEMPS WARM LATE INTO THE WEEKEND AND NEXT
WEEK.

TODAY A DRIER AND MILDER AIRMASS HAS FILTER INTO AR WITH A NE TO
E SURFACE FLOW. ONLY A SLIGHT CHANCE OF CONVECTION IS POSSIBLE IN FAR
WEST AR BASED ON CURRENT AND EXPECTED TRENDS...ALTHOUGH CURRENTLY
ONLY WEAK CONVECTION IS SEEN OVER EASTERN OK. SOME UPPER SHORT
WAVE ENERGY...ALBEIT WEAK...IS SEEN IN THE UPPER NW FLOW.
LOCALIZED INSTABILITY REMAINS WHERE THURSDAY CONVECTION SET UP
OVER WESTERN AR. OTHERWISE...TEMPS WERE A BIT COOLER TO AROUND
NORMAL VALUES THIS AFTERNOON.

&&

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT

WILL KEEP A SLIGHT CHANCE IN THE EVENING FOR FAR WESTERN
AR...OTHERWISE A DRY FORECAST WITH A WARMING TREND FOR THE WEEKEND
AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE UPPER RIDGE DOES MOVE A BIT MORE
WEST...BUT STILL HAS INFLUENCE OVER AR WITH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
IN PLACE. ALOFT A BROAD UPPER TROUGH WILL BE OVER THE EASTERN U.S.
AND MUCH OF ANY SHORT WAVE ENERGY DOES STAY NORTH OF AR IN THE
MODEL GUIDANCE...BUT AN ISOLATED STORM MAY BE SEEN. CONVECTION AT
THIS TIME WOULD BE LOW AND ISOLATED AND WILL NOT INCLUDE TO EARLY
NEXT WEEK. TEMPS WILL SLOWLY WARM OVER THE SHORT TERM AND BE A BIT
ABOVE NORMAL VALUES...BUT SHOULD HOLD BELOW 100 DEGREES. MOISTURE
WILL ALSO SLOWLY RETURN INTO NEXT WEEK...BUT DO NOT EXPECT ANY
HEAT ADVISORIES UNTIL NEXT WEEK.

&&

.LONG TERM...TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...

THE REGION WILL REMAIN UNDER THE NERN EDGE OF AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
OF HIGH PRESSURE DURING THE EXTENDED TERM...WITH A PREDOMINANT NWLY
FLOW. ANOTHER FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL LIKELY DROP DOWN ACROSS THE AREA
LATE IN THE TERM. TIMING IS A BIT UNCERTAIN AT THIS TIME...AND FOR
THE MOMENT I WILL TEND TO DEFER MORE TOWARD A FRIDAY TO FRIDAY NIGHT
TIME FRAME...WHICH WOULD BRING INCREASING CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION
TO THE STATE. THE MAIN EFFECT OF THE FRONT...LIKE THE LAST ONE THAT
PASSED THROUGH...WOULD BE SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES AND LOWER
DEWPOINTS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BATESVILLE AR     67  93  69  94 /   0   0  10  10
CAMDEN AR         68  96  69  98 /   0   0   0   0
HARRISON AR       65  91  67  92 /   0   0  10  10
HOT SPRINGS AR    68  96  69  97 /   0   0   0  10
LITTLE ROCK   AR  69  95  71  97 /   0   0  10   0
MONTICELLO AR     69  94  70  97 /   0   0   0   0
MOUNT IDA AR      66  95  67  95 /   0   0   0  10
MOUNTAIN HOME AR  66  92  67  92 /   0   0  10  10
NEWPORT AR        66  92  69  94 /   0   0   0  10
PINE BLUFF AR     68  94  69  96 /   0   0   0   0
RUSSELLVILLE AR   67  95  68  96 /   0   0  10  10
SEARCY AR         67  94  69  95 /   0   0   0  10
STUTTGART AR      69  93  70  95 /   0   0   0   0
&&

.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...59 / LONG TERM...53




000
FXUS64 KLZK 311620 AAA
AFDLZK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
1120 AM CDT FRI JUL 31 2015

.DISCUSSION...

OVERALL FORECAST ON TRACK. A DRIER AND MILDER AIRMASS CONTINUES TO
FILTER INTO AR WITH A NE TO E SURFACE FLOW. WILL ADD A SLIGHT CHANCE
OF CONVECTION IN FAR WEST AR BASED ON CURRENT AND EXPECTED TRENDS.
SOME UPPER SHORT WAVE ENERGY...ALBEIT WEAK...IS SEEN IN THE UPPER NW
FLOW...AND WHILE SHORT RANGE MODELS SHOW LITTLE IN THE AREA...
LOCALIZED INSTABILITY REMAINS WHERE THURSDAY CONVECTION SET UP OVER
WESTERN AR...POLK COUNTY...AND THE AREA. OTHERWISE...WILL ONLY FINE
TUNE OTHER ELEMENTS IN FORECAST. TEMPS ON TRACK TO BE FROM THE UPPER
80S TO MID 90S. (59)

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 633 AM CDT FRI JUL 31 2015/

.AVIATION...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL KEEP QUIET WEATHER OVER THE AREA TODAY.
SCATTERED CIRRUS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE DAY...AND CLEAR SKIES
TONIGHT. VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 350 AM CDT FRI JUL 31 2015/

SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT

SFC HIGH PRES WAS CENTERED OVR SRN MO EARLY THIS MRNG...PROVIDING A
DRIER LGT E/NE WIND FLOW ACRS THE FA. EARLY MRNG TEMPS RANGED FM THE
MID 60S TO THE LOWER 70S. SEEING SOME PTCHY DENSE FOG OVR W-CNTRL AR
WHERE RAIN FELL ON THU. WL CARRY A MENTION OF FOG IN THE FCST EARLY
IN THE PD.

THE AFOREMENTIONED SFC HIGH WL RMN SITUATED ACRS AR THRU SAT...
RESULTING IN DRY AND SEASONABLE CONDS. WHILE TEMPS WL BE CLOSE TO
SEASONAL NORMS...THE AIRMASS WL BE MORE TOLERABLE COMPARED TO JUST A
FEW DAYS AGO THANKS TO MUCH LOWER REL HUMIDITY LVLS.

NWLY FLOW ALOFT WL BRING A WEAK CDFNT SEWD TOWARD THE AREA LATE IN
THE WEEKEND. THE BNDRY IS EXPECTED TO STALL OUT JUST TO THE NE OF
AR. MODELS CONT TO INDC NOT MUCH IN THE WAY OF UPR SUPPORT FOR
ORGANZIED CONVECTION THRU THE REST OF THE PD...SO A DRY FCST WL CONT.
TEMPS WL START TO INCRS BY SUN AND MON AS SWLY WINDS EVENTUALLY RETURN
TO THE MID SOUTH.

LONG TERM...TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY

AN UPPER RIDGE...CENTERED NEAR THE FOUR CORNERS REGION...WILL
STRETCH ACROSS THE SOUTHERN U.S. TO BEGIN THE LONG TERM PERIOD.
NORTHWEST FLOW WILL BE OVER ARKANSAS. THIS RIDGE WILL SLOWLY MOVE
EAST THROUGH THE PERIOD AND MAY EVEN ENTER WESTERN ARKANSAS THURSDAY.

SEVERAL SHORT WAVES ARE EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH THE NORTHWEST FLOW
OVER ARKANSAS THROUGH THE LONG TERM PERIOD. THIS WILL BRING CHANCES
FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE STATE. THE BEST CHANCES WILL BE
IN THE NORTHEAST HALF OF THE AREA. TEMPERATURES WILL BE MAINLY IN
THE 90S BUT THE HUMIDITY SHOULD NOT BE EXCESSIVE.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BATESVILLE AR     92  67  93  69 /   0   0   0  10
CAMDEN AR         94  68  96  69 /  10   0   0   0
HARRISON AR       90  65  91  67 /   0   0   0  10
HOT SPRINGS AR    93  68  96  69 /  10   0   0   0
LITTLE ROCK   AR  93  69  95  71 /   0   0   0  10
MONTICELLO AR     93  69  94  70 /   0   0   0   0
MOUNT IDA AR      93  66  95  67 /  10   0   0   0
MOUNTAIN HOME AR  91  66  92  67 /   0   0   0  10
NEWPORT AR        91  66  92  69 /   0   0   0   0
PINE BLUFF AR     92  68  94  69 /   0   0   0   0
RUSSELLVILLE AR   93  67  95  68 /  10   0   0  10
SEARCY AR         92  67  94  69 /   0   0   0   0
STUTTGART AR      92  69  93  70 /   0   0   0   0
&&

.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&

$$


AVIATION...51



000
FXUS64 KLZK 311620 AAA
AFDLZK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
1120 AM CDT FRI JUL 31 2015

.DISCUSSION...

OVERALL FORECAST ON TRACK. A DRIER AND MILDER AIRMASS CONTINUES TO
FILTER INTO AR WITH A NE TO E SURFACE FLOW. WILL ADD A SLIGHT CHANCE
OF CONVECTION IN FAR WEST AR BASED ON CURRENT AND EXPECTED TRENDS.
SOME UPPER SHORT WAVE ENERGY...ALBEIT WEAK...IS SEEN IN THE UPPER NW
FLOW...AND WHILE SHORT RANGE MODELS SHOW LITTLE IN THE AREA...
LOCALIZED INSTABILITY REMAINS WHERE THURSDAY CONVECTION SET UP OVER
WESTERN AR...POLK COUNTY...AND THE AREA. OTHERWISE...WILL ONLY FINE
TUNE OTHER ELEMENTS IN FORECAST. TEMPS ON TRACK TO BE FROM THE UPPER
80S TO MID 90S. (59)

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 633 AM CDT FRI JUL 31 2015/

.AVIATION...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL KEEP QUIET WEATHER OVER THE AREA TODAY.
SCATTERED CIRRUS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE DAY...AND CLEAR SKIES
TONIGHT. VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 350 AM CDT FRI JUL 31 2015/

SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT

SFC HIGH PRES WAS CENTERED OVR SRN MO EARLY THIS MRNG...PROVIDING A
DRIER LGT E/NE WIND FLOW ACRS THE FA. EARLY MRNG TEMPS RANGED FM THE
MID 60S TO THE LOWER 70S. SEEING SOME PTCHY DENSE FOG OVR W-CNTRL AR
WHERE RAIN FELL ON THU. WL CARRY A MENTION OF FOG IN THE FCST EARLY
IN THE PD.

THE AFOREMENTIONED SFC HIGH WL RMN SITUATED ACRS AR THRU SAT...
RESULTING IN DRY AND SEASONABLE CONDS. WHILE TEMPS WL BE CLOSE TO
SEASONAL NORMS...THE AIRMASS WL BE MORE TOLERABLE COMPARED TO JUST A
FEW DAYS AGO THANKS TO MUCH LOWER REL HUMIDITY LVLS.

NWLY FLOW ALOFT WL BRING A WEAK CDFNT SEWD TOWARD THE AREA LATE IN
THE WEEKEND. THE BNDRY IS EXPECTED TO STALL OUT JUST TO THE NE OF
AR. MODELS CONT TO INDC NOT MUCH IN THE WAY OF UPR SUPPORT FOR
ORGANZIED CONVECTION THRU THE REST OF THE PD...SO A DRY FCST WL CONT.
TEMPS WL START TO INCRS BY SUN AND MON AS SWLY WINDS EVENTUALLY RETURN
TO THE MID SOUTH.

LONG TERM...TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY

AN UPPER RIDGE...CENTERED NEAR THE FOUR CORNERS REGION...WILL
STRETCH ACROSS THE SOUTHERN U.S. TO BEGIN THE LONG TERM PERIOD.
NORTHWEST FLOW WILL BE OVER ARKANSAS. THIS RIDGE WILL SLOWLY MOVE
EAST THROUGH THE PERIOD AND MAY EVEN ENTER WESTERN ARKANSAS THURSDAY.

SEVERAL SHORT WAVES ARE EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH THE NORTHWEST FLOW
OVER ARKANSAS THROUGH THE LONG TERM PERIOD. THIS WILL BRING CHANCES
FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE STATE. THE BEST CHANCES WILL BE
IN THE NORTHEAST HALF OF THE AREA. TEMPERATURES WILL BE MAINLY IN
THE 90S BUT THE HUMIDITY SHOULD NOT BE EXCESSIVE.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BATESVILLE AR     92  67  93  69 /   0   0   0  10
CAMDEN AR         94  68  96  69 /  10   0   0   0
HARRISON AR       90  65  91  67 /   0   0   0  10
HOT SPRINGS AR    93  68  96  69 /  10   0   0   0
LITTLE ROCK   AR  93  69  95  71 /   0   0   0  10
MONTICELLO AR     93  69  94  70 /   0   0   0   0
MOUNT IDA AR      93  66  95  67 /  10   0   0   0
MOUNTAIN HOME AR  91  66  92  67 /   0   0   0  10
NEWPORT AR        91  66  92  69 /   0   0   0   0
PINE BLUFF AR     92  68  94  69 /   0   0   0   0
RUSSELLVILLE AR   93  67  95  68 /  10   0   0  10
SEARCY AR         92  67  94  69 /   0   0   0   0
STUTTGART AR      92  69  93  70 /   0   0   0   0
&&

.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&

$$


AVIATION...51




000
FXUS64 KLZK 311620 AAA
AFDLZK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
1120 AM CDT FRI JUL 31 2015

.DISCUSSION...

OVERALL FORECAST ON TRACK. A DRIER AND MILDER AIRMASS CONTINUES TO
FILTER INTO AR WITH A NE TO E SURFACE FLOW. WILL ADD A SLIGHT CHANCE
OF CONVECTION IN FAR WEST AR BASED ON CURRENT AND EXPECTED TRENDS.
SOME UPPER SHORT WAVE ENERGY...ALBEIT WEAK...IS SEEN IN THE UPPER NW
FLOW...AND WHILE SHORT RANGE MODELS SHOW LITTLE IN THE AREA...
LOCALIZED INSTABILITY REMAINS WHERE THURSDAY CONVECTION SET UP OVER
WESTERN AR...POLK COUNTY...AND THE AREA. OTHERWISE...WILL ONLY FINE
TUNE OTHER ELEMENTS IN FORECAST. TEMPS ON TRACK TO BE FROM THE UPPER
80S TO MID 90S. (59)

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 633 AM CDT FRI JUL 31 2015/

.AVIATION...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL KEEP QUIET WEATHER OVER THE AREA TODAY.
SCATTERED CIRRUS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE DAY...AND CLEAR SKIES
TONIGHT. VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 350 AM CDT FRI JUL 31 2015/

SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT

SFC HIGH PRES WAS CENTERED OVR SRN MO EARLY THIS MRNG...PROVIDING A
DRIER LGT E/NE WIND FLOW ACRS THE FA. EARLY MRNG TEMPS RANGED FM THE
MID 60S TO THE LOWER 70S. SEEING SOME PTCHY DENSE FOG OVR W-CNTRL AR
WHERE RAIN FELL ON THU. WL CARRY A MENTION OF FOG IN THE FCST EARLY
IN THE PD.

THE AFOREMENTIONED SFC HIGH WL RMN SITUATED ACRS AR THRU SAT...
RESULTING IN DRY AND SEASONABLE CONDS. WHILE TEMPS WL BE CLOSE TO
SEASONAL NORMS...THE AIRMASS WL BE MORE TOLERABLE COMPARED TO JUST A
FEW DAYS AGO THANKS TO MUCH LOWER REL HUMIDITY LVLS.

NWLY FLOW ALOFT WL BRING A WEAK CDFNT SEWD TOWARD THE AREA LATE IN
THE WEEKEND. THE BNDRY IS EXPECTED TO STALL OUT JUST TO THE NE OF
AR. MODELS CONT TO INDC NOT MUCH IN THE WAY OF UPR SUPPORT FOR
ORGANZIED CONVECTION THRU THE REST OF THE PD...SO A DRY FCST WL CONT.
TEMPS WL START TO INCRS BY SUN AND MON AS SWLY WINDS EVENTUALLY RETURN
TO THE MID SOUTH.

LONG TERM...TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY

AN UPPER RIDGE...CENTERED NEAR THE FOUR CORNERS REGION...WILL
STRETCH ACROSS THE SOUTHERN U.S. TO BEGIN THE LONG TERM PERIOD.
NORTHWEST FLOW WILL BE OVER ARKANSAS. THIS RIDGE WILL SLOWLY MOVE
EAST THROUGH THE PERIOD AND MAY EVEN ENTER WESTERN ARKANSAS THURSDAY.

SEVERAL SHORT WAVES ARE EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH THE NORTHWEST FLOW
OVER ARKANSAS THROUGH THE LONG TERM PERIOD. THIS WILL BRING CHANCES
FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE STATE. THE BEST CHANCES WILL BE
IN THE NORTHEAST HALF OF THE AREA. TEMPERATURES WILL BE MAINLY IN
THE 90S BUT THE HUMIDITY SHOULD NOT BE EXCESSIVE.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BATESVILLE AR     92  67  93  69 /   0   0   0  10
CAMDEN AR         94  68  96  69 /  10   0   0   0
HARRISON AR       90  65  91  67 /   0   0   0  10
HOT SPRINGS AR    93  68  96  69 /  10   0   0   0
LITTLE ROCK   AR  93  69  95  71 /   0   0   0  10
MONTICELLO AR     93  69  94  70 /   0   0   0   0
MOUNT IDA AR      93  66  95  67 /  10   0   0   0
MOUNTAIN HOME AR  91  66  92  67 /   0   0   0  10
NEWPORT AR        91  66  92  69 /   0   0   0   0
PINE BLUFF AR     92  68  94  69 /   0   0   0   0
RUSSELLVILLE AR   93  67  95  68 /  10   0   0  10
SEARCY AR         92  67  94  69 /   0   0   0   0
STUTTGART AR      92  69  93  70 /   0   0   0   0
&&

.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&

$$


AVIATION...51



000
FXUS64 KLZK 311133
AFDLZK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
633 AM CDT FRI JUL 31 2015

.AVIATION...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL KEEP QUIET WEATHER OVER THE AREA TODAY.
SCATTERED CIRRUS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE DAY...AND CLEAR SKIES
TONIGHT. VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 350 AM CDT FRI JUL 31 2015/

SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT

SFC HIGH PRES WAS CENTERED OVR SRN MO EARLY THIS MRNG...PROVIDING A
DRIER LGT E/NE WIND FLOW ACRS THE FA. EARLY MRNG TEMPS RANGED FM THE
MID 60S TO THE LOWER 70S. SEEING SOME PTCHY DENSE FOG OVR W-CNTRL AR
WHERE RAIN FELL ON THU. WL CARRY A MENTION OF FOG IN THE FCST EARLY
IN THE PD.

THE AFOREMENTIONED SFC HIGH WL RMN SITUATED ACRS AR THRU SAT...
RESULTING IN DRY AND SEASONABLE CONDS. WHILE TEMPS WL BE CLOSE TO
SEASONAL NORMS...THE AIRMASS WL BE MORE TOLERABLE COMPARED TO JUST A
FEW DAYS AGO THANKS TO MUCH LOWER REL HUMIDITY LVLS.

NWLY FLOW ALOFT WL BRING A WEAK CDFNT SEWD TOWARD THE AREA LATE IN
THE WEEKEND. THE BNDRY IS EXPECTED TO STALL OUT JUST TO THE NE OF
AR. MODELS CONT TO INDC NOT MUCH IN THE WAY OF UPR SUPPORT FOR
ORGANZIED CONVECTION THRU THE REST OF THE PD...SO A DRY FCST WL CONT.
TEMPS WL START TO INCRS BY SUN AND MON AS SWLY WINDS EVENTUALLY RETURN
TO THE MID SOUTH.

LONG TERM...TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY

AN UPPER RIDGE...CENTERED NEAR THE FOUR CORNERS REGION...WILL
STRETCH ACROSS THE SOUTHERN U.S. TO BEGIN THE LONG TERM PERIOD.
NORTHWEST FLOW WILL BE OVER ARKANSAS. THIS RIDGE WILL SLOWLY MOVE
EAST THROUGH THE PERIOD AND MAY EVEN ENTER WESTERN ARKANSAS THURSDAY.

SEVERAL SHORT WAVES ARE EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH THE NORTHWEST FLOW
OVER ARKANSAS THROUGH THE LONG TERM PERIOD. THIS WILL BRING CHANCES
FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE STATE. THE BEST CHANCES WILL BE
IN THE NORTHEAST HALF OF THE AREA. TEMPERATURES WILL BE MAINLY IN
THE 90S BUT THE HUMIDITY SHOULD NOT BE EXCESSIVE.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BATESVILLE AR     92  67  93  69 /   0   0   0  10
CAMDEN AR         94  68  96  69 /  10   0   0   0
HARRISON AR       90  65  91  67 /   0   0   0  10
HOT SPRINGS AR    93  68  96  69 /  10   0   0   0
LITTLE ROCK   AR  93  69  95  71 /   0   0   0  10
MONTICELLO AR     93  69  94  70 /   0   0   0   0
MOUNT IDA AR      93  66  95  67 /  10   0   0   0
MOUNTAIN HOME AR  91  66  92  67 /   0   0   0  10
NEWPORT AR        91  66  92  69 /   0   0   0   0
PINE BLUFF AR     92  68  94  69 /   0   0   0   0
RUSSELLVILLE AR   93  67  95  68 /  10   0   0  10
SEARCY AR         92  67  94  69 /   0   0   0   0
STUTTGART AR      92  69  93  70 /   0   0   0   0
&&

.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&

$$


AVIATION...51



000
FXUS64 KLZK 311133
AFDLZK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
633 AM CDT FRI JUL 31 2015

.AVIATION...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL KEEP QUIET WEATHER OVER THE AREA TODAY.
SCATTERED CIRRUS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE DAY...AND CLEAR SKIES
TONIGHT. VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 350 AM CDT FRI JUL 31 2015/

SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT

SFC HIGH PRES WAS CENTERED OVR SRN MO EARLY THIS MRNG...PROVIDING A
DRIER LGT E/NE WIND FLOW ACRS THE FA. EARLY MRNG TEMPS RANGED FM THE
MID 60S TO THE LOWER 70S. SEEING SOME PTCHY DENSE FOG OVR W-CNTRL AR
WHERE RAIN FELL ON THU. WL CARRY A MENTION OF FOG IN THE FCST EARLY
IN THE PD.

THE AFOREMENTIONED SFC HIGH WL RMN SITUATED ACRS AR THRU SAT...
RESULTING IN DRY AND SEASONABLE CONDS. WHILE TEMPS WL BE CLOSE TO
SEASONAL NORMS...THE AIRMASS WL BE MORE TOLERABLE COMPARED TO JUST A
FEW DAYS AGO THANKS TO MUCH LOWER REL HUMIDITY LVLS.

NWLY FLOW ALOFT WL BRING A WEAK CDFNT SEWD TOWARD THE AREA LATE IN
THE WEEKEND. THE BNDRY IS EXPECTED TO STALL OUT JUST TO THE NE OF
AR. MODELS CONT TO INDC NOT MUCH IN THE WAY OF UPR SUPPORT FOR
ORGANZIED CONVECTION THRU THE REST OF THE PD...SO A DRY FCST WL CONT.
TEMPS WL START TO INCRS BY SUN AND MON AS SWLY WINDS EVENTUALLY RETURN
TO THE MID SOUTH.

LONG TERM...TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY

AN UPPER RIDGE...CENTERED NEAR THE FOUR CORNERS REGION...WILL
STRETCH ACROSS THE SOUTHERN U.S. TO BEGIN THE LONG TERM PERIOD.
NORTHWEST FLOW WILL BE OVER ARKANSAS. THIS RIDGE WILL SLOWLY MOVE
EAST THROUGH THE PERIOD AND MAY EVEN ENTER WESTERN ARKANSAS THURSDAY.

SEVERAL SHORT WAVES ARE EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH THE NORTHWEST FLOW
OVER ARKANSAS THROUGH THE LONG TERM PERIOD. THIS WILL BRING CHANCES
FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE STATE. THE BEST CHANCES WILL BE
IN THE NORTHEAST HALF OF THE AREA. TEMPERATURES WILL BE MAINLY IN
THE 90S BUT THE HUMIDITY SHOULD NOT BE EXCESSIVE.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BATESVILLE AR     92  67  93  69 /   0   0   0  10
CAMDEN AR         94  68  96  69 /  10   0   0   0
HARRISON AR       90  65  91  67 /   0   0   0  10
HOT SPRINGS AR    93  68  96  69 /  10   0   0   0
LITTLE ROCK   AR  93  69  95  71 /   0   0   0  10
MONTICELLO AR     93  69  94  70 /   0   0   0   0
MOUNT IDA AR      93  66  95  67 /  10   0   0   0
MOUNTAIN HOME AR  91  66  92  67 /   0   0   0  10
NEWPORT AR        91  66  92  69 /   0   0   0   0
PINE BLUFF AR     92  68  94  69 /   0   0   0   0
RUSSELLVILLE AR   93  67  95  68 /  10   0   0  10
SEARCY AR         92  67  94  69 /   0   0   0   0
STUTTGART AR      92  69  93  70 /   0   0   0   0
&&

.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&

$$


AVIATION...51




000
FXUS64 KLZK 310850
AFDLZK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
350 AM CDT FRI JUL 31 2015

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT

SFC HIGH PRES WAS CENTERED OVR SRN MO EARLY THIS MRNG...PROVIDING A
DRIER LGT E/NE WIND FLOW ACRS THE FA. EARLY MRNG TEMPS RANGED FM THE
MID 60S TO THE LOWER 70S. SEEING SOME PTCHY DENSE FOG OVR W-CNTRL AR
WHERE RAIN FELL ON THU. WL CARRY A MENTION OF FOG IN THE FCST EARLY
IN THE PD.

THE AFOREMENTIONED SFC HIGH WL RMN SITUATED ACRS AR THRU SAT...
RESULTING IN DRY AND SEASONABLE CONDS. WHILE TEMPS WL BE CLOSE TO
SEASONAL NORMS...THE AIRMASS WL BE MORE TOLERABLE COMPARED TO JUST A
FEW DAYS AGO THANKS TO MUCH LOWER REL HUMIDITY LVLS.

NWLY FLOW ALOFT WL BRING A WEAK CDFNT SEWD TOWARD THE AREA LATE IN
THE WEEKEND. THE BNDRY IS EXPECTED TO STALL OUT JUST TO THE NE OF
AR. MODELS CONT TO INDC NOT MUCH IN THE WAY OF UPR SUPPORT FOR
ORGANZIED CONVECTION THRU THE REST OF THE PD...SO A DRY FCST WL CONT.
TEMPS WL START TO INCRS BY SUN AND MON AS SWLY WINDS EVENTUALLY RETURN
TO THE MID SOUTH.
&&

.LONG TERM...TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY

AN UPPER RIDGE...CENTERED NEAR THE FOUR CORNERS REGION...WILL
STRETCH ACROSS THE SOUTHERN U.S. TO BEGIN THE LONG TERM PERIOD.
NORTHWEST FLOW WILL BE OVER ARKANSAS. THIS RIDGE WILL SLOWLY MOVE
EAST THROUGH THE PERIOD AND MAY EVEN ENTER WESTERN ARKANSAS THURSDAY.

SEVERAL SHORT WAVES ARE EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH THE NORTHWEST FLOW
OVER ARKANSAS THROUGH THE LONG TERM PERIOD. THIS WILL BRING CHANCES
FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE STATE. THE BEST CHANCES WILL BE
IN THE NORTHEAST HALF OF THE AREA. TEMPERATURES WILL BE MAINLY IN
THE 90S BUT THE HUMIDITY SHOULD NOT BE EXCESSIVE.
&&

.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...44 / LONG TERM...51



000
FXUS64 KLZK 310850
AFDLZK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
350 AM CDT FRI JUL 31 2015

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT

SFC HIGH PRES WAS CENTERED OVR SRN MO EARLY THIS MRNG...PROVIDING A
DRIER LGT E/NE WIND FLOW ACRS THE FA. EARLY MRNG TEMPS RANGED FM THE
MID 60S TO THE LOWER 70S. SEEING SOME PTCHY DENSE FOG OVR W-CNTRL AR
WHERE RAIN FELL ON THU. WL CARRY A MENTION OF FOG IN THE FCST EARLY
IN THE PD.

THE AFOREMENTIONED SFC HIGH WL RMN SITUATED ACRS AR THRU SAT...
RESULTING IN DRY AND SEASONABLE CONDS. WHILE TEMPS WL BE CLOSE TO
SEASONAL NORMS...THE AIRMASS WL BE MORE TOLERABLE COMPARED TO JUST A
FEW DAYS AGO THANKS TO MUCH LOWER REL HUMIDITY LVLS.

NWLY FLOW ALOFT WL BRING A WEAK CDFNT SEWD TOWARD THE AREA LATE IN
THE WEEKEND. THE BNDRY IS EXPECTED TO STALL OUT JUST TO THE NE OF
AR. MODELS CONT TO INDC NOT MUCH IN THE WAY OF UPR SUPPORT FOR
ORGANZIED CONVECTION THRU THE REST OF THE PD...SO A DRY FCST WL CONT.
TEMPS WL START TO INCRS BY SUN AND MON AS SWLY WINDS EVENTUALLY RETURN
TO THE MID SOUTH.
&&

.LONG TERM...TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY

AN UPPER RIDGE...CENTERED NEAR THE FOUR CORNERS REGION...WILL
STRETCH ACROSS THE SOUTHERN U.S. TO BEGIN THE LONG TERM PERIOD.
NORTHWEST FLOW WILL BE OVER ARKANSAS. THIS RIDGE WILL SLOWLY MOVE
EAST THROUGH THE PERIOD AND MAY EVEN ENTER WESTERN ARKANSAS THURSDAY.

SEVERAL SHORT WAVES ARE EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH THE NORTHWEST FLOW
OVER ARKANSAS THROUGH THE LONG TERM PERIOD. THIS WILL BRING CHANCES
FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE STATE. THE BEST CHANCES WILL BE
IN THE NORTHEAST HALF OF THE AREA. TEMPERATURES WILL BE MAINLY IN
THE 90S BUT THE HUMIDITY SHOULD NOT BE EXCESSIVE.
&&

.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...44 / LONG TERM...51




000
FXUS64 KLZK 310532
AFDLZK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
1232 AM CDT FRI JUL 31 2015

.AVIATION...
NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL BE OVER ARKANSAS FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS.
NO PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED OVER THE AREA...AS SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE AND COOLER AND DRIER AIR WILL BE IN PLACE OVER THE STATE.
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 601 PM CDT THU JUL 30 2015/

AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD...WITH NO
SIGNIFICANT WEATHER OR OBSTRUCTIONS TO VISIBILITY. TAFS OUT
SHORTLY.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 249 PM CDT THU JUL 30 2015/

DISCUSSION...
MAIN CONCERNS THIS FORECAST CYCLE ARE FIRST PERIOD CONVECTION AND
HEAT...THEN A DRIER AND A BIT MILDER PERIOD INTO THE WEEKEND.
ALTHOUGH AN UPPER NW FLOW SETS UP FOR SOME POSSIBLE CONVECTION AS
TEMPS WARM LATE INTO THE WEEKEND AND NEXT WEEK.

THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY HAS SAGGED TO FAR SOUTHERN AR...WITH A NE
SURFACE FLOW BRINGING A BIT MILDER AND MUCH DRIER AIRMASS INTO
AR. DEW POINT TEMPS WERE FROM THE LOWER 60S IN THE NORTH...TO THE
60S TO MID 70S CENTRAL AND LOWER TO MID 70S SOUTH. THIS HAS ALSO
LOWERED TEMPS A BIT THIS AFTERNOON...WITH THE WARMEST OVER FAR
SOUTHERN AR...AND A HEAT ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT. THE MAIN AREA OF
CONVECTION HAS SET UP OVER WESTERN TO SW AR NEAR THE BOUNDARY AND
THE HOTTEST AND MOST UNSTABLE AIRMASS IS LOCATED. DID UPDATE
FORECAST TO SHOW THIS TREND.

SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT
WILL KEEP LIKELY POPS IN THE FAR WEST TO SW WHILE A CHANCE TO
SLIGHT CHANCE AS YOU GO EAST...THIS EVENING ALONG CURRENT
CONVECTION TRENDS. THEN A SLIGHT OVERNIGHT IN THE FAR WEST. ON
FRIDAY THE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO FILTER THE MILDER
AND DRIER AIR IN TO MOST OF AR...WHILE A LOW CHANCE OF ANY
CONVECTION OVER FAR WESTERN TO SW AR. TEMPS ARE EXPECTED TO BE
AROUND NORMAL VALUES. THE OVERALL DRYING TREND IS EXPECTED INTO
THE WEEKEND WITH TEMPS SLOWLY WARMING. ALTHOUGH...THE UPPER
PATTERN DOES CHANGE AS THE UPPER HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE SETTLES MORE
WEST...AND A UPPER NW FLOW SETS UP IN THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN
PLAINS. MODELS ARE NOT CONSISTENT WITH LOCATION AND AMOUNT OF
UPPER SHORT WAVE ENERGY...SO RAIN CHANCES HAVE BEEN KEPT LOW AT
THIS TIME. THINGS COULD CHANGE WITH LATER FORECASTS.

LONG TERM...MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY
A DRY START TO THE EXTENDED FORECAST AS THE 5H RIDGE AND SURFACE
HIGH DOMINATE ON MONDAY. THE UPPER RIDGE SHIFTS WEST TUESDAY WITH
ANOTHER WEAK COLD FRONT EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO THE AREA TUE NIGHT
AND EARLY WED. THIS WILL BRING A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS OR
THUNDERSTORMS TUESDAY NIGHT AND A CHANCE OF STORMS ON WED. AS THE
UPPER HIGH CONTINUES TO BE CENTERED OVER THE CENTRAL ROCKIES...THE
NORTHERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL ALLOW FOR A SERIES OF WEAK IMPULSES TO
MOVE ACROSS THE AREA. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS/STORMS WILL
LIKELY ACCOMPANY THESE DISTURBANCES. BOTH THE ECMWF AND GFS ARE IN
GEMERAL AGREEMENT WITH THIS SCENARIO...BUT NOT IN THE TIMING OF
AND INTENSITY OF THE DISTURBANCES SO CONFIDENCE IN EXACTLY WHEN OR
HOW MUCH SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL AFFECT THE AREA IS LOW.

WITH THE UPPER LEVEL HIGH SETTING UP SHOW OVER THE ROCKIES TEMPS
WILL TREND DOWN DUE TO LOWER 5H HEIGHTS...WEAK COLD FRONT...AND SOME
INCREASED CLOUD COVER ASSOCIATED WITH AFOREMENTIONED RAIN CHANCES.
WARMEST DAY WILL BE MONDAY AND TUESDAY WITH TEMPS MODERATING A TAD
ON WED AND THU.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BATESVILLE AR     92  68  93  68 /   0   0  10   0
CAMDEN AR         94  69  96  71 /  10   0   0   0
HARRISON AR       89  66  90  66 /  10   0  10   0
HOT SPRINGS AR    93  69  96  70 /  10   0   0   0
LITTLE ROCK   AR  93  71  95  70 /  10   0  10   0
MONTICELLO AR     92  70  96  71 /  10   0   0   0
MOUNT IDA AR      92  67  94  69 /  10   0   0   0
MOUNTAIN HOME AR  91  66  91  67 /  10   0  10   0
NEWPORT AR        92  68  92  68 /   0   0  10   0
PINE BLUFF AR     92  70  95  70 /  10   0   0   0
RUSSELLVILLE AR   93  68  95  69 /  10   0  10   0
SEARCY AR         93  68  94  69 /   0   0  10   0
STUTTGART AR      92  70  93  70 /   0   0  10   0
&&

.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&

$$


AVIATION...51



    US Dept of Commerce
    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration
    National Weather Service
    1325 East West Highway
    Silver Spring, MD 20910
    Page Author: NWS Internet Services Team
Disclaimer
Information Quality
Credits
Glossary
Privacy Policy
Freedom of Information Act (FOIA)
About Us
Career Opportunities