[top]
000
FLUS44 KMEG 202036
HWOMEG
HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
336 PM CDT MON MAY 20 2013
ARZ008-009-017-018-026>028-035-036-048-049-058-MOZ113-115-
MSZ001>017-020>024-TNZ001>004-019>021-048>055-088>092-211600-
ALCORN-BENTON MS-CALHOUN-CARROLL-CHESTER-CHICKASAW-CLAY-COAHOMA-
CRAIGHEAD-CRITTENDEN-CROCKETT-CROSS-DESOTO-DECATUR-DUNKLIN-DYER-
FAYETTE-GIBSON-GREENE-HARDEMAN-HARDIN-HAYWOOD-HENDERSON-HENRY-
ITAWAMBA-LAFAYETTE-LAKE-LAUDERDALE-LAWRENCE-LEE AR-LEE MS-MADISON-
MARSHALL-MCNAIRY-MISSISSIPPI-MONROE-OBION-PANOLA-PEMISCOT-
PHILLIPS-POINSETT-PONTOTOC-PRENTISS-QUITMAN-RANDOLPH-SHELBY-
ST. FRANCIS-TALLAHATCHIE-TATE-TIPPAH-TIPTON-TISHOMINGO-TUNICA-
UNION-WEAKLEY-YALOBUSHA-
336 PM CDT MON MAY 20 2013
THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF EAST ARKANSAS...
THE MISSOURI BOOTHEEL...NORTH MISSISSIPPI...AND WEST TENNESSEE.
.DAY ONE...TONIGHT
A VERY SMALL RISK EXISTS FOR STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS ACROSS
NORTHEAST ARKANSAS AND THE BOOTHEEL OF MISSOURI. GUSTY WINDS WILL
BE THE MAIN THREAT...MUCH LESSER CHANCES FOR DAMAGING WINDS.
.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY
THERE IS A VERY SLIGHT RISK FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS MUCH
OF THE MID SOUTH FROM LATE TUESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY
NIGHT. THIS AREA WILL INCLUDE ALL OF EASTERN ARKANSAS...THE
MISSOURI BOOTHEEL...ALL OF WEST TENNESSEE...AND NORTHWEST
MISSISSIPPI. MANY LIMITING FACTORS COULD KEEP STORMS FROM BECOMING
STRONG TO SEVERE...BUT THOSE THAT DO BECOME SEVERE WILL BE
CAPABLE OF PRODUCING THE MAIN THREAT OF DAMAGING WINDS. HEAVY
RAINFALL WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE AS THE AIRMASS WILL REMAIN VERY
MOIST.
.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
A SMALL CHANCES EXISTS THAT ACTIVATION OF STORM SPOTTERS AND
EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT OFFICIALS MAY BE NEEDED LATE TONIGHT ACROSS
NORTHEAST ARKANSAS AND THE MISSOURI BOOTHEEL. LOW PROBABILITY OF
SPOTTER ACTIVATION FOR MUCH OF THE MID SOUTH FROM LATE TUESDAY
AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT.
$$
ABS
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000
FLUS44 KSHV 201740
HWOSHV
HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
1200 PM CDT MON MAY 20 2013
ARZ050-051-059>061-070-071-OKZ077-TXZ096-097-108>112-124-125-211100-
BOWIE-CAMP-CASS-FRANKLIN-HEMPSTEAD-HOWARD-LAFAYETTE-LITTLE RIVER-
MCCURTAIN-MILLER-MORRIS-NEVADA-RED RIVER TX-SEVIER-TITUS-UPSHUR-WOOD-
1200 PM CDT MON MAY 20 2013
THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHWEST
ARKANSAS...SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA...AND NORTHEAST TEXAS.
.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT...
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BECOME NUMEROUS THIS EVENING ACROSS
CENTRAL AND EASTERN OKLAHOMA...AND SPREAD EAST INTO EXTREME
SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA AND ADJACENT SECTIONS OF SOUTHWEST ARKANSAS
AFTER MIDNIGHT. SOME OF THESE STORMS MAY BECOME SEVERE AS THEY
ENTER THE REGION LATE TONIGHT...WITH DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL.
STORMS WILL WEAKEN LATE TONIGHT AS INSTABILITY DIMINISHES.
.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVERNIGHT WILL LEAVE CONVECTIVE BOUNDARIES
IN PLACE TUESDAY...WHICH WILL FOCUS SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY TUESDAY...AS THE AIR MASS
DESTABILIZES DURING PEAK HEATING IN ADVANCE OF AN UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE. SOME THUNDERSTORMS WILL BECOME SEVERE
TUESDAY AFTERNOON...PRODUCING HIGH AND DAMAGING WINDS...LARGE HAIL...
DEADLY LIGHTNING...AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL. THESE STORMS
ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP INTO A LARGER CLUSTER OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TUESDAY NIGHT...AS THEY ADVANCE EAST SOUTHEAST ACROSS
EAST TEXAS AND SOUTHWEST ARKANSAS. RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF ONE TO
THREE INCHES WILL BE POSSIBLE...WHICH CAN RESULT IN LOCALIZED
FLASH FLOODING AND PONDING OF WATER IN STREETS...LOW
LYING...AND POOR DRAINAGE AREAS. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL
DIMINISH FROM WEST TO EAST LATE TUESDAY NIGHT AND EARLY WEDNESDAY.
.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
ACTIVATION OF EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT PERSONNEL...AMATEUR RADIO
OPERATORS...AND STORM SPOTTERS MAY BE NEEDED LATE TONIGHT ACROSS
SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA AND ADJACENT SECTIONS OF SOUTHWEST ARKANSAS...
AND EXTREME NORTHEAST TEXAS.
$$
ARZ072-073-LAZ001>006-010>014-017>022-TXZ126-136>138-149>153-165>167-
211100-
ANGELINA-BIENVILLE-BOSSIER-CADDO-CALDWELL-CHEROKEE-CLAIBORNE-
COLUMBIA-DE SOTO-GRANT-GREGG-HARRISON-JACKSON-LA SALLE-LINCOLN-
MARION-NACOGDOCHES-NATCHITOCHES-OUACHITA-PANOLA-RED RIVER LA-RUSK-
SABINE LA-SABINE TX-SAN AUGUSTINE-SHELBY-SMITH-UNION AR-UNION LA-
WEBSTER-WINN-
1200 PM CDT MON MAY 20 2013
THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTH CENTRAL
ARKANSAS...SOUTHWEST ARKANSAS...NORTH CENTRAL AND NORTHWEST
LOUISIANA...AND EAST AND NORTHEAST TEXAS.
.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT...
NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED.
.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP TUESDAY ACROSS
PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST TEXAS AND SOUTHWEST ARKANSAS...ALONG
RESIDUAL BOUNDARIES FROM EARLIER THUNDERSTORMS. STRONG DAYTIME
HEATING WITHIN A VERY MOIST AIR MASS WILL RESULT IN STRONG
INSTABILITY TUESDAY AFTERNOON...AS LARGE SCALE FORCING INCREASES
WITH THE APPROACH OF AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE FROM
THE WEST. SOME THUNDERSTORMS WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO BECOME
SEVERE TUESDAY AFTERNOON OVER NORTHEAST TEXAS AND SOUTHWEST
ARKANSAS...AND INTO NORTH LOUISIANA TUESDAY EVENING...AS THEY SPREAD
EAST SOUTHEAST. HIGH AND DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL WILL BE THE
PRIMARY SEVERE WEATHER THREATS...WITH DEADLY LIGHTNING AND A THREAT
FOR LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AS STORMS GROW INTO LARGE CLUSTERS. THESE
CLUSTERS WILL PROGRESS OVER THE AREA TUESDAY NIGHT. LOCALIZED FLASH
FLOODING AND PONDING OF WATER IN STREETS...LOW LYING...AND POOR
DRAINAGE AREAS WILL BE POSSIBLE TUESDAY NIGHT. THE SEVERE
WEATHER AND HEAVY RAINFALL THREAT WILL DIMINISH LATE TUESDAY NIGHT
AND EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING...WITH SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
END FROM WEST TO EAST ON WEDNESDAY.
.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
ACTIVATION OF EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT PERSONNEL...AMATEUR RADIO
OPERATORS...AND STORM SPOTTERS WILL NOT BE NEEDED THIS AFTERNOON
OR TONIGHT.
$$
06
[top]
000
FLUS44 KTSA 201710
HWOTSA
HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
1210 PM CDT MON MAY 20 2013
ARZ001-002-010-011-019-020-029-OKZ049-053>076-211000-
ADAIR OK-BENTON AR-CARROLL AR-CHEROKEE OK-CHOCTAW OK-CRAIG OK-
CRAWFORD AR-CREEK OK-DELAWARE OK-FRANKLIN AR-HASKELL OK-LATIMER OK-
LE FLORE OK-MADISON AR-MAYES OK-MCINTOSH OK-MUSKOGEE OK-NOWATA OK-
OKFUSKEE OK-OKMULGEE OK-OSAGE OK-OTTAWA OK-PAWNEE OK-PITTSBURG OK-
PUSHMATAHA OK-ROGERS OK-SEBASTIAN AR-SEQUOYAH OK-TULSA OK-WAGONER OK-
WASHINGTON OK-WASHINGTON AR-
1210 PM CDT MON MAY 20 2013
...SIGNIFICANT SEVERE WEATHER EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING
WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR A FEW LONG TRACK TORNADOES...
THIS OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHWEST AND WEST CENTRAL ARKANSAS AS WELL AS
MUCH OF EASTERN OKLAHOMA.
.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.
TORNADO.
RISK...ELEVATED.
AREA...EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS.
ONSET...AFTER 2 PM.
AREA AT GREATEST RISK...INTERSTATE 44 AND NORTH OF I-40.
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM.
RISK...SIGNIFICANT.
AREA...EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS.
ONSET...AFTER 2 PM.
AREA AT GREATEST RISK...INTERSTATE 44 AND NORTH OF I-40.
FLASH FLOOD.
RISK...ELEVATED.
AREA...NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA INTO NORTHWEST ARKANSAS.
ONSET...TONIGHT.
HEAVY RAIN.
RISK...SIGNIFICANT.
AREA...EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS.
ONSET...LATE AFTERNOON.
AREA AT GREATEST RISK...SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 44 AND NORTH OF I-40.
DISCUSSION...
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP BY MID AFTERNOON ACROSS
PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA...WEST OF HIGHWAY 75. THESE
THUNDERSTORMS WILL RAPIDLY BECOME SEVERE...TAKING ON SUPERCELLULAR
CHARACTERISTICS. ADDITIONAL SEVERE STORMS WILL DEVELOP FURTHER SOUTH
INTO EAST CENTRAL OKLAHOMA BY LATE AFTERNOON. THE ATMOSPHERE IS
ALREADY VERY UNSTABLE AND ADDITIONAL SURFACE HEATING IS EXPECTED
THIS AFTERNOON WITH STRENGTHENING WIND FIELDS ALOFT. GIVEN THE
EXPECTED ENVIRONMENT...THE STRONGER STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF
PRODUCING A FEW LONG TRACK VIOLENT TORNADOES...HAIL TO THE SIZE OF
BASEBALLS AND WIND GUSTS AROUND 80 MPH.
IN ADDITION...HEAVY RAIN AND FLASH FLOODING WILL LIKELY BECOME
AN ISSUE INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS OVER PORTIONS OF EASTERN OKLAHOMA
AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS. THE GREATEST THREAT TONIGHT WILL BE SOUTH
OF INTERSTATE 44 AND NORTH OF INTERSTATE 40. STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO
REPEATEDLY MOVE ACROSS THIS AREA TONIGHT WITH 2 TO 4 INCHES OF RAIN
COMMON. A FEW LOCATIONS COULD SEE UP TO 7 INCHES OF RAIN WHICH
WOULD CAUSE LIFE THREATENING FLASH FLOODING.
SPOTTER AND EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT ACTION STATEMENT...
ACTIVATION OF THE REGIONAL SPOTTER NETWORK EXPECTED.
.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.
TUESDAY...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL...HEAVY RAIN POTENTIAL.
WEDNESDAY...NO HAZARDS.
THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL.
EXTENDED DISCUSSION...
THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT MAY PERSIST INTO TUESDAY ACROSS
SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA AND WEST CENTRAL ARKANSAS...INCLUDING THE
THREAT FOR FLOODING. AFTER A BRIEF BREAK ON WEDNESDAY...LOW
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES RETURN THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.
EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT PLANNING STATEMENT...
SEVERE STORMS ARE LIKELY TO BE MUCH MORE WIDESPREAD OVER
EASTERN OKLAHOMA TODAY AND TONIGHT THAN YESTERDAY. PERSONS
IN NORTHWEST ARKANSAS WILL ALSO SEE AN INCREASED THREAT
AFTER MISSING THE BULK OF YESTERDAYS STORMS.
WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/TULSA CONTAINS ADDITIONAL INFORMATION.
$$
[top]
000
FLUS44 KLZK 201644
HWOLZK
HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
1143 AM CDT MON MAY 20 2013
ARZ003>007-012>016-021>025-030>034-037>047-052>057-062>069-211000-
ARKANSAS-BAXTER-BOONE-BRADLEY-CALHOUN-CLARK-CLEBURNE-CLEVELAND-
CONWAY-DALLAS-DESHA-DREW-FAULKNER-FULTON-GARLAND-GRANT-HOT SPRING-
INDEPENDENCE-IZARD-JACKSON-JEFFERSON-JOHNSON-LINCOLN-LOGAN-LONOKE-
MARION-MONROE-MONTGOMERY-NEWTON-OUACHITA-PERRY-PIKE-POLK-POPE-
PRAIRIE-PULASKI-SALINE-SCOTT-SEARCY-SHARP-STONE-VAN BUREN-WHITE-
WOODRUFF-YELL-
1143 AM CDT MON MAY 20 2013
THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR A LARGE PART OF ARKANSAS.
.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO RAPIDLY DEVELOP DURING THE MID AND
LATE AFTERNOON HOURS...ALONG AND AHEAD OF A SLOW MOVING SURFACE
BOUNDARY...LOCATED ACROSS CENTRAL OKLAHOMA...TO WESTERN MISSOURI.
THE STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO MOVE EASTWARD DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON
HOURS...WITH THE STRONGEST STORMS AFFECTING AREAS ALONG AND THE
NORTH OF A LINE FROM MENA...TO MOUNTAIN HOME. THE STRONGEST STORMS
WILL AFFECT THIS AREA THROUGH LATE EVENING...AND WILL BE CAPABLE OF
PRODUCING LARGE HAIL...WIDESPREAD DAMAGING WIND GUSTS...AND
TORNADOES.
AS THE STORMS PROGRESS EASTWARD DURING LATE EVENING AND EARLY
MORNING HOURS...ACROSS CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST SECTIONS OF
ARKANSAS...SOME WEAKENING WILL OCCUR. HOWEVER...DAMAGING WIND GUSTS
WILL STILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THE STRONGEST STORMS.
.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY
CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL INCREASE AREA WIDE FOR
TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT AS THE POTENT STORM SYSTEM TO THE WEST
MOVES OVER ARKANSAS. DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL WILL BE THE
MAIN THREATS WITH THE STRONGEST STORMS. THE THREAT FOR TORNADOES
WILL BE SOMEWHAT LIMITED DUE TO LACK OF SIGNIFICANT LOW LEVEL SHEAR.
HOWEVER...CANNOT COMPLETELY RULE OUT AN ISOLATED TORNADO...ESPECIALLY
IF THERE IS LOCALIZED INCREASE IN LOW LEVEL SHEAR ACROSS SOME
PORTION OF THE STATE. HEAVY RAINFALL WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE AS
SEVERAL ROUNDS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE
DURING THE DAY ON TUESDAY AND THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT. AS A
RESULT...LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE.
CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DECREASE FOR THE MIDDLE
OF THE WEEK AS WEAK HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OVER THE REGION. HOWEVER...A
COLD FRONT WILL ATTEMPT TO MOVE INTO THE STATE THURSDAY INTO
FRIDAY. THIS FRONT COULD TRIGGER SOME SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. HOWEVER...THE THREAT FOR WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS
WEATHER LOOKS LIMITED AT THIS TIME THIS FAR OUT.
.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED ACROSS THE NORTHWEST THIRD OF THE
STATE BY LATE AFTERNOON...AND ACROSS CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST SECTIONS
OVERNIGHT.
&&
VISIT NWS LITTLE ROCK ON THE WEB. GO TO HTTP://WEATHER.GOV AND
CLICK ON CENTRAL ARKANSAS.
$$
55/62
000
FLUS44 KTSA 201427
HWOTSA
HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
927 AM CDT MON MAY 20 2013
ARZ001-002-010-011-019-020-029-OKZ049-053>076-211000-
ADAIR OK-BENTON AR-CARROLL AR-CHEROKEE OK-CHOCTAW OK-CRAIG OK-
CRAWFORD AR-CREEK OK-DELAWARE OK-FRANKLIN AR-HASKELL OK-LATIMER OK-
LE FLORE OK-MADISON AR-MAYES OK-MCINTOSH OK-MUSKOGEE OK-NOWATA OK-
OKFUSKEE OK-OKMULGEE OK-OSAGE OK-OTTAWA OK-PAWNEE OK-PITTSBURG OK-
PUSHMATAHA OK-ROGERS OK-SEBASTIAN AR-SEQUOYAH OK-TULSA OK-WAGONER OK-
WASHINGTON OK-WASHINGTON AR-
927 AM CDT MON MAY 20 2013
...ANOTHER ROUND OF SEVERE WEATHER LIKELY TODAY...
THIS OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHWEST AND WEST CENTRAL ARKANSAS AS WELL AS
MUCH OF EASTERN OKLAHOMA.
.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.
TORNADO.
RISK...ELEVATED.
AREA...EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS.
ONSET...AFTER 2 PM.
AREA AT GREATEST RISK...SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 44 AND NORTH OF I-40.
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM.
RISK...SIGNIFICANT.
AREA...EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS.
ONSET...AFTER 2 PM.
AREA AT GREATEST RISK...SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 44 AND NORTH OF I-40.
FLASH FLOOD.
RISK...ELEVATED.
AREA...NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA INTO NORTHWEST ARKANSAS.
ONSET...TONIGHT.
HEAVY RAIN.
RISK...SIGNIFICANT.
AREA...EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS.
ONSET...LATE AFTERNOON.
AREA AT GREATEST RISK...SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 44 AND NORTH OF I-40.
DISCUSSION...
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AROUND 2 PM THIS AFTERNOON
ALONG A COLD FRONT THAT WILL EXTEND FROM SOUTH-CENTRAL KANSAS INTO
CENTRAL OKLAHOMA. THESE THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO BECOME SEVERE
RAPIDLY AND MOVE INTO NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA. WHILE THE INDIVIDUAL THUNDERSTORMS
WILL BE MOVING TO THE NORTHEAST...THE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BEGIN TO SPREAD
TO THE SOUTHEAST AS A BROKEN LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPS DURING THE
EVENING HOURS. THE AIRMASS HAS CHANGED VERY LITTLE FROM YESTERDAY WITH
ABUNDANT INSTABILITY AND DEEP LAYER SHEAR IN PLACE ACROSS THE AREA.
TORNADOES...HAIL TO THE SIZE OF BASEBALLS AND WIND GUSTS TO AROUND 8O MPH
WILL BE POSSIBLE.
HEAVY RAIN AND FLASH FLOODING WILL BE POSSIBLE TONIGHT ACROSS AREAS OF
EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 44 AND NORTH
OF INTERSTATE 40. STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO REPEATEDLY MOVE ACROSS THIS
AREA TONIGHT WITH 2 TO 4 INCHES OF RAIN COMMON. A FEW LOCATIONS COULD
SEE UP TO 7 INCHES OF RAIN WHICH WILL CAUSE FLASH FLOODING OF LOW LYING
AREAS.
SPOTTER AND EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT ACTION STATEMENT...
ACTIVATION OF THE REGIONAL SPOTTER NETWORK EXPECTED.
.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.
TUESDAY...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL...HEAVY RAIN POTENTIAL.
WEDNESDAY...NO HAZARDS.
THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL.
EXTENDED DISCUSSION...
THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT MAY PERSIST INTO TUESDAY...FOR
SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA AND WEST CENTRAL ARKANSAS AHEAD OF A SLOW
MOVING COLD FRONT. AFTER A ONE DAY BREAK WEDNESDAY...LOW
CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS RETURN THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.
EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT PLANNING STATEMENT...
SEVERE STORMS ARE LIKELY TO BE MUCH MORE WIDESPREAD OVER
EASTERN OKLAHOMA TODAY AND TONIGHT THAN YESTERDAY. FOLKS
IN NORTHWEST ARKANSAS WILL BE EQUALLY INCLUDED IN THE SEVERE
THREAT AFTER MISSING THE BULK OF YESTERDAYS STORMS.
WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/TULSA CONTAINS ADDITIONAL INFORMATION.
$$
000
FLUS44 KTSA 201035
HWOTSA
HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
535 AM CDT MON MAY 20 2013
ARZ001-002-010-011-019-020-029-OKZ049-053>076-211000-
ADAIR OK-BENTON AR-CARROLL AR-CHEROKEE OK-CHOCTAW OK-CRAIG OK-
CRAWFORD AR-CREEK OK-DELAWARE OK-FRANKLIN AR-HASKELL OK-LATIMER OK-
LE FLORE OK-MADISON AR-MAYES OK-MCINTOSH OK-MUSKOGEE OK-NOWATA OK-
OKFUSKEE OK-OKMULGEE OK-OSAGE OK-OTTAWA OK-PAWNEE OK-PITTSBURG OK-
PUSHMATAHA OK-ROGERS OK-SEBASTIAN AR-SEQUOYAH OK-TULSA OK-WAGONER OK-
WASHINGTON OK-WASHINGTON AR-
530 AM CDT MON MAY 20 2013
...MORE SEVERE WEATHER LIKELY TODAY AND TONIGHT...
THIS OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHWEST AND WEST CENTRAL ARKANSAS AS WELL AS
MUCH OF EASTERN OKLAHOMA.
.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.
TORNADO.
RISK...LIMITED.
AREA...EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND WEST CENTRAL AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS.
ONSET...AFTERNOON.
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM.
RISK...SIGNIFICANT.
AREA...EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND WEST CENTRAL AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS.
ONSET...AFTERNOON.
AREA AT GREATEST RISK...INTERSTATE 40 AXIS.
FLASH FLOOD.
RISK...ELEVATED.
AREA...EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND WEST CENTRAL AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS.
ONSET...MID OR LATE AFTERNOON.
HEAVY RAIN.
RISK...SIGNIFICANT.
AREA...EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND WEST CENTRAL AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS.
ONSET...MID OR LATE AFTERNOON.
AREA AT GREATEST RISK...NEAR AN AXIS FROM HENRYETTA TO FAYETTEVILLE.
DISCUSSION...
TODAY AND TONIGHT WILL FEATURE ANOTHER VERY ACTIVE WEATHER DAY.
CONVECTION IS LIKELY TO BEGIN EARLIER THAN YESTERDAY...PROBABLY
BETWEEN NOON AND 3 PM. THUNDERSTORMS WILL BECOME MORE NUMEROUS
LATE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING...THEN LAST MUCH OF THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS.
THE AIRMASS OVER OUR REGION HAS CHANGED LITTLE FROM YESTERDAY
WITH SIGNIFICANT CONVECTIVE AVAILABLE ENERGY AND DEEP LAYER SHEAR.
TORNADOES...BASEBALL SIZE HAIL AND WIND GUST OF 80 MILES AN HOUR CAN
BE ANTICIPATED FROM SOME STORMS. WEST CENTRAL AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS
WILL BE MUCH MORE LIKELY TO SEE SEVERE STORMS LATE TODAY OR TONIGHT
THAN YESTERDAY.
HIGH ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE CONTENT MEANS ANY AREA THAT RECEIVES
REPEAT STORMS...OR TRAINING STORMS...WILL SEE AN ENHANCED FLOOD
THREAT. THE AREA THAT APPEARS MOST VULNERABLE FOR HEAVY RAIN
WILL BE NEAR AN AXIS FROM AROUND HENRYETTA TO THE FAYETTEVILLE
SPRINGDALE VICINITY.
.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.
TUESDAY...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL...HEAVY RAIN POTENTIAL.
WEDNESDAY...NO HAZARDS.
THURSDAY...THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL.
FRIDAY...THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL.
SATURDAY...THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL.
SUNDAY...THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL.
EXTENDED DISCUSSION...
THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT MAY PERSIST INTO TUESDAY...FOR
SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA AND WEST CENTRAL ARKANSAS AHEAD OF A SLOW
MOVING COLD FRONT. AFTER A ONE DAY BREAK WEDNESDAY...LOW
CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS RETURN THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.
EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT PLANNING STATEMENT...
SEVERE STORMS ARE LIKELY TO BE MUCH MORE WIDESPREAD OVER
EASTERN OKLAHOMA TODAY AND TONIGHT THAN YESTERDAY. FOLKS
IN NORTHWEST ARKANSAS WILL BE EQUALLY INCLUDED IN THE SEVERE
THREAT AFTER MISSING THE BULK OF YESTERDAYS STORMS.
WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/TULSA CONTAINS ADDITIONAL INFORMATION.
$$
000
FLUS44 KMEG 201017
HWOMEG
HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
517 AM CDT MON MAY 20 2013
ARZ008-009-017-018-026>028-035-036-048-049-058-MOZ113-115-
MSZ001>017-020>024-TNZ001>004-019>021-048>055-088>092-211230-
ALCORN-BENTON MS-CALHOUN-CARROLL-CHESTER-CHICKASAW-CLAY-COAHOMA-
CRAIGHEAD-CRITTENDEN-CROCKETT-CROSS-DESOTO-DECATUR-DUNKLIN-DYER-
FAYETTE-GIBSON-GREENE-HARDEMAN-HARDIN-HAYWOOD-HENDERSON-HENRY-
ITAWAMBA-LAFAYETTE-LAKE-LAUDERDALE-LAWRENCE-LEE AR-LEE MS-MADISON-
MARSHALL-MCNAIRY-MISSISSIPPI-MONROE-OBION-PANOLA-PEMISCOT-
PHILLIPS-POINSETT-PONTOTOC-PRENTISS-QUITMAN-RANDOLPH-SHELBY-
ST. FRANCIS-TALLAHATCHIE-TATE-TIPPAH-TIPTON-TISHOMINGO-TUNICA-
UNION-WEAKLEY-YALOBUSHA-
517 AM CDT MON MAY 20 2013
THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF EAST ARKANSAS...
THE MISSOURI BOOTHEEL...NORTH MISSISSIPPI...AND WEST TENNESSEE.
.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT
THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS AFTER MIDNIGHT
TONIGHT ACROSS PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST ARKANSAS AND THE MISSOURI
BOOTHEEL. DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH ANY
STORMS THAT BECOME SEVERE.
.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY
THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS MUCH OF THE
MID SOUTH FROM LATE TUESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT. THIS
SLIGHT RISK AREA WILL INCLUDE ALL OF EASTERN ARKANSAS...THE
MISSOURI BOOTHEEL...ALL OF WEST TENNESSEE...AND NORTHWEST
MISSISSIPPI. THUNDERSTORMS THAT BECOME SEVERE WILL BE CAPABLE OF
PRODUCING DAMAGING WINDS...LARGE HAIL...AND ISOLATED TORNADOES.
HEAVY RAINFALL WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE AS THE AIRMASS WILL REMAIN
VERY MOIST.
.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
THE ACTIVATION OF STORM SPOTTERS AND EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT
OFFICIALS MAY BE NEEDED LATE TONIGHT ACROSS NORTHEAST ARKANSAS AND
THE MISSOURI BOOTHEEL. SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL BE LIKELY ACROSS
MUCH OF THE MID SOUTH FROM LATE TUESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY
NIGHT.
$$
JLH
000
FLUS44 KLZK 200819
HWOLZK
HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
319 AM CDT MON MAY 20 2013
ARZ003>007-012>016-021>025-030>034-037>047-052>057-062>069-211000-
ARKANSAS-BAXTER-BOONE-BRADLEY-CALHOUN-CLARK-CLEBURNE-CLEVELAND-
CONWAY-DALLAS-DESHA-DREW-FAULKNER-FULTON-GARLAND-GRANT-HOT SPRING-
INDEPENDENCE-IZARD-JACKSON-JEFFERSON-JOHNSON-LINCOLN-LOGAN-LONOKE-
MARION-MONROE-MONTGOMERY-NEWTON-OUACHITA-PERRY-PIKE-POLK-POPE-
PRAIRIE-PULASKI-SALINE-SCOTT-SEARCY-SHARP-STONE-VAN BUREN-WHITE-
WOODRUFF-YELL-
319 AM CDT MON MAY 20 2013
THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR A LARGE PART OF ARKANSAS.
.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS AS A POTENT STORM SYSTEM TO THE WEST SLOWLY MOVES
EAST TOWARDS ARKANSAS. THE BEST CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION WILL BE
ACROSS THE FAR NORTHWESTERN SECTIONS OF THE AREA THROUGH THIS
AFTERNOON...AND ACROSS THE NORTHWEST HALF OF ARKANSAS THIS EVENING
AND OVERNIGHT. SOME STORMS COULD BECOME SEVERE...WITH DAMAGING
WINDS AND VERY LARGE HAIL THE MAIN THREATS WITH THE STRONGEST
STORMS. SOME TORNADOES WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE. THE BEST CHANCES FOR
SEEING SEVERE WEATHER WILL BE ACROSS THE NORTHWEST THIRD OF THE
STATE THROUGH TONIGHT. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WILL ALSO BE
POSSIBLE...WHICH COULD RESULT IN LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING.
.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY
CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL INCREASE AREA WIDE FOR
TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT AS THE POTENT STORM SYSTEM TO THE WEST
MOVES OVER ARKANSAS. DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL WILL BE THE
MAIN THREATS WITH THE STRONGEST STORMS. THE THREAT FOR TORNADOES
WILL BE SOMEWHAT LIMITED DUE TO LACK OF SIGNIFICANT LOW LEVEL SHEAR.
HOWEVER...CANNOT COMPLETELY RULE OUT AN ISOLATED TORNADO...ESPECIALLY
IF THERE IS LOCALIZED INCREASE IN LOW LEVEL SHEAR ACROSS SOME
PORTION OF THE STATE. HEAVY RAINFALL WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE AS
SEVERAL ROUNDS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE
DURING THE DAY ON TUESDAY AND THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT. AS A
RESULT...LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE.
CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DECREASE FOR THE MIDDLE
OF THE WEEK AS WEAK HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OVER THE REGION. HOWEVER...A
COLD FRONT WILL ATTEMPT TO MOVE INTO THE STATE THURSDAY INTO
FRIDAY. THIS FRONT COULD TRIGGER SOME SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. HOWEVER...THE THREAT FOR WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS
WEATHER LOOKS LIMITED AT THIS TIME THIS FAR OUT.
.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED ACROSS THE NORTHWEST THIS
AFTERNOON INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...AND AGAIN AREA WIDE FOR
TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT.
&&
VISIT NWS LITTLE ROCK ON THE WEB. GO TO HTTP://WEATHER.GOV AND
CLICK ON CENTRAL ARKANSAS.
$$
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