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000
FXZS60 NSTU 290349 AAA
AFDPPG

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR AMERICAN SAMOA AND INDEPENDENT SAMOA
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PAGO PAGO AS
449 PM SST WED JAN 28 2015

.UPDATED...A MONSOONAL TROUGH AXIS HAS ENHANCED SCATTERED TO FREQUENT
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS OVER MANUA AND SWAINS THIS EVENING.
CLOUDS AND SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE DEVELOPING OFFSHORES FROM TUTUILA
WESTWARD. HAVE UPDATED THE FIRST PERIOD ON THE PREV FCST TO REFLECT
THE ONSET OF INCREASING RAINFALL AND GUSTY WINDS ACROSS MANUA AND
SWAINS ISLANDS FOR TONIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
.TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...A MONSOON TROUGH FROM YESTERDAY
REMAINS EVIDENT TO THE NORTH AND EAST QUADRANTS OF THE SAMOAN
ISLANDS. AS THE MONSOONAL TROUGH CONTINUES TO INTENSIFY TONIGHT
INTO THURSDAY...SEVERE WEATHER IS POSSIBLE ACROSS THE REGION. THE
LEADING EDGE OF THE MONSOON TROUGH HAS DRIFTED OVER MANUA...THIS
WEATHER PHENOMENON WILL TRIGGER NUMEROUS TO FREQUENT SHOWERS AND
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS AND STRONG GUSTY WINDS TO MOVE
ACROSS THE AREA STARTING TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY NIGHT. DEPENDING ON
THE LOCATION OF THE MONSOON TROUGH AXIS TONIGHT...STRONG GUSTS ARE
EXPECTED NEAR TUTUILA AND MANUA. A WIND ADVISORY AND ISSUANCE OF
HYDROLOGICAL PRODUCTS ARE MANDATORY TO REFLECT THIS EXPECTED
SITUATION.

.LONG TERM...
.SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...THERE/S A NEW TRANSITION WITH THE
LATEST WEATHER FORECAST. A SURFACE RIDGE TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE
AREA WILL USHER DRY WEATHER CONDITIONS DURING SATURDAY AND SUNDAY.
THE GFS MODEL MATERIALIZES TWO SEPARATE CIRCULATION TO THE WEST OF
THE DATE LINE...AND THESE CIRCULATIONS WILL DRAW HEAVY MOISTURE
AND STRONG WINDS TO THE WEST AND SOUTHWEST OF THE REGION. IF
MODELS ARE CORRECT...ONLY MINIMAL SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED DURING THE
LONG-TERM FCST PERIOD. FOR NOW...WILL KEEP THE WIND SPEED FROM
THE PREV FCST THE SAME WHILE REDUCING THE SHOWER COVERAGE STARTING
ON SUNDAY TO SCATTERED WORDING.

&&

.MARINE...THE LATEST WAVE WATCH MODEL SHOWS SEA HEIGHTS RISING TO
NEAR 10 TO 12 FEET STARTING THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY...THEN PEAKING
TO NEAR 14 FEET DURING FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.

&&

.PPG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
.A WIND ADVISORY FOR MANUA AND SWAINS UNTIL FRIDAY.
.A SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT.
.A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY.
.A HIGH SURF ADVISORY.

&&

$$

BAQUI








000
FXZS60 NSTU 290346 AAA
AFDPPG

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR AMERICAN SAMOA AND INDEPENDENT SAMOA...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PAGO PAGO AS
446 PM SST WED JAN 28 2015

.UPDATED...A MONSOONAL TROUGH AXIS HAS ENHANCED SCATTERED TO FREQUENT
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS OVER MANUA AND SWAINS THIS EVENING.
CLOUDS AND SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE DEVELOPING OFFSHORES FROM TUTUILA
WESTWARD. HAVE UPDATED THE FIRST PERIOD ON THE PREV FCST TO REFLECT
THE ONSET OF INCREASING RAINFALL AND GUSTY WINDS ACROSS MANUA AND
SWAINS ISLANDS FOR TONIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
.TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...A MONSOON TROUGH FROM YESTERDAY
REMAINS EVIDENT TO THE NORTH AND EAST QUADRANTS OF THE SAMOAN
ISLANDS. AS THE MONSOONAL TROUGH CONTINUES TO INTENSIFY TONIGHT
INTO THURSDAY...SEVERE WEATHER IS POSSIBLE ACROSS THE REGION. THE
LEADING EDGE OF THE MONSOON TROUGH HAS DRIFTED OVER MANUA...THIS
WEATHER PHENOMENON WILL TRIGGER NUMEROUS TO FREQUENT SHOWERS AND
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS AND STRONG GUSTY WINDS TO MOVE
ACROSS THE AREA STARTING TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY NIGHT. DEPENDING ON
THE LOCATION OF THE MONSOON TROUGH AXIS TONIGHT...STRONG GUSTS ARE
EXPECTED NEAR TUTUILA AND MANUA. A WIND ADVISORY AND ISSUANCE OF
HYDROLOGICAL PRODUCTS ARE MANDATORY TO REFLECT THIS EXPECTED
SITUATION.

.LONG TERM...
.SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...THERE/S A NEW TRANSITION WITH THE
LATEST WEATHER FORECAST. A SURFACE RIDGE TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE
AREA WILL USHER DRY WEATHER CONDITIONS DURING SATURDAY AND SUNDAY.
THE GFS MODEL MATERIALIZES TWO SEPARATE CIRCULATION TO THE WEST OF
THE DATE LINE...AND THESE CIRCULATIONS WILL DRAW HEAVY MOISTURE
AND STRONG WINDS TO THE WEST AND SOUTHWEST OF THE REGION. IF
MODELS ARE CORRECT...ONLY MINIMAL SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED DURING THE
LONG-TERM FCST PERIOD. FOR NOW...WILL KEEP THE WIND SPEED FROM
THE PREV FCST THE SAME WHILE REDUCING THE SHOWER COVERAGE STARTING
ON SUNDAY TO SCATTERED WORDING.

&&

.MARINE...THE LATEST WAVE WATCH MODEL SHOWS SEA HEIGHTS RISING TO
NEAR 10 TO 12 FEET STARTING THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY.

&&

.PPG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
.A WIND ADVISORY FOR MANUA AND SWAINS UNTIL FRIDAY.
.A SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT.
.A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY.
.A HIGH SURF ADVISORY.

&&

$$

BAQUI








000
FXZS60 NSTU 290127
AFDPPG

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR AMERICAN SAMOA AND INDEPENDENT SAMOA
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PAGO PAGO AS
227 PM SST WED JAN 28 2015

.SHORT TERM...
.TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...A MONSOON TROUGH FROM YESTERDAY
REMAINS EVIDENT TO THE NORTH AND EAST QUADRANTS OF THE SAMOAN
ISLANDS. AS THE MONSOONAL TROUGH CONTINUES TO INTENSIFY TONIGHT
INTO THURSDAY...SEVERE WEATHER IS POSSIBLE ACROSS THE REGION. THE
LEADING EDGE OF THE MONSOON TROUGH HAS DRIFTED OVER MANUA...THIS
WEATHER PHENOMENON WILL TRIGGER NUMEROUS TO FREQUENT SHOWERS AND
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS AND STRONG GUSTY WINDS TO MOVE
ACROSS THE AREA STARTING TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY NIGHT. DEPENDING ON
THE LOCATION OF THE MONSOON TROUGH AXIS TONIGHT...STRONG GUSTS ARE
EXPECTED NEAR TUTUILA AND MANUA. A WIND ADVISORY AND ISSUANCE OF
HYDROLOGICAL PRODUCTS ARE MANDATORY TO REFLECT THIS EXPECTED
SITUATION.

.LONG TERM...
.SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...THERE/S A NEW TRANSITION WITH THE
LATEST WEATHER FORECAST. A SURFACE RIDGE TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE
AREA WILL USHER DRY WEATHER CONDITIONS DURING SATURDAY AND SUNDAY.
THE GFS MODEL MATERIALIZES TWO SEPARATE CIRCULATION TO THE WEST OF
THE DATE LINE...AND THESE CIRCULATIONS WILL DRAW HEAVY MOISTURE
AND STRONG WINDS TO THE WEST AND SOUTHWEST OF THE REGION. IF
MODELS ARE CORRECT...ONLY MINIMAL SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED DURING THE
LONG-TERM FCST PERIOD. FOR NOW...WILL KEEP THE WIND SPEED FROM
THE PREV FCST THE SAME WHILE REDUCING THE SHOWER COVERAGE STARTING
ON SUNDAY TO SCATTERED WORDING.

&&

.MARINE...THE LATEST WAVE WATCH MODEL SHOWS SEA HEIGHTS RISING TO
NEAR 10 TO 12 FEET STARTING THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY...THEN
PEAKING TO NEAR 14 FEET FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY.

&&

.PPG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
.A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY.
.A HIGH SURF ADVISORY.

&&

$$

BAQUI











000
FXZS60 NSTU 280103
AFDPPG

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR AMERICAN SAMOA AND INDEPENDENT SAMOA
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PAGO PAGO AS
203 PM SST TUE JAN 27 2015

.SHORT TERM...
.TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...A MONSOON TROUGH FROM THE WEST OF
THE DATE LINE RUNS SOUTHEASTWARD TOWARD THE NORTH OF SAVAII TO BEYOND
TUTUILA...MOVING NEARLY STATIONARY. THE GFS MODEL RESOLUTION SUGGEST
A LOT OF RAINFALL AND POSSIBLE TSTMS AND GUSTY WINDS STARTING WEDNESDAY
MORNING. A SURFACE RIDGE AHEAD OF THE MONSOON TROUGH WILL FORCE THE
TROUGH AXIS TO REMAIN CLOSE TO THE FCST ZONES THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT.
SEVERE WEATHER IS POSSIBLE ACROSS THE AREA. AS A RESULT...ANTICIPATE
NUMEROUS TO FREQUENT SHOWERS WITH LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AND ISOLATED
TSTMS. NORTHWEST WINDS OF 15 TO 20 KT WILL PEAK TO NEAR 30 KT THURSDAY
MORNING. GUSTY WINDS ARE EXPECTED AS THE MONSOON TROUGH DRAWS
CLOSER TO THE TERRITORY.

.LONG TERM...
.FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...AN INFAMOUS MONSOONAL TROUGH WILL LINGER
OVER THE AREA THROUGH THE WEEKEND INTO THE NEW WEEK. SCATTERED TO
NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE TSTMS ARE EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL
DAYS. NORTHWEST WINDS OF 20 TO 25 KT WILL DECLINE TO NEAR 15 KT SATURDAY
MORNING. AS A RESULT...ANTICIPATE WET WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LOCALLY
HEAVY RAINFALL AND GUSTY WINDS ACROSS THE FCST ZONES BEFORE SUNDAY.

&&

.MARINE...STRONG WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH MONSOONAL TROUGH WILL GENERATE
CHOPPY SEAS AND HAZARDOUS LOCAL SWELLS IN THE AREA. THE LATEST WAVE
WATCH MODEL SHOWS COMBINED SEAS OF 12 TO 14 FEET WITH OCCASIONAL
HIGHER SETS DURING THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. THIS SWELL TRAIN CAN TRIGGER
SURFS TO REACH HIGH SURF WARNING THRESHOLDS THUS WILL MONITOR THIS
SITUATION BEFORE MAKING NEW UPDATES.

&&

.PPG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
.A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY.
.A HIGH SURF ADVISORY.

&&

$$

BAQUI








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