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000
FXZS60 NSTU 300018
AFDPPG

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR AMERICAN SAMOA AND INDEPENDENT SAMOA
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PAGO PAGO AS
118 PM SST FRI AUG 29 2014

.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)...
VERY LITTLE CHANGE IN THE FORECAST AS THE STRONG HIGH PRESSURE
SYSTEM REMAINS FAR SOUTH OF THE TERRITORY...COMBINED WITH THE
STATIONARY FRONT ORIENTED NORTH OF THE SAMOAN ISLANDS CONTINUE TO
DOMINATE WEATHER CONDITIONS ACROSS THE AREA. THE BREEZY EASTERLIES
WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE SHORT TERM AS MINIMAL CHANGE IN PRESSURE
GRADIENTS IS EXPECTED. ADDITIONALLY...EXPECT PERIODS OF SHOWERS TO
BE EMBEDDED WITHIN THE EASTERLY FLOW.

.LONG TERM (MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)...
THE AFOREMENTIONED HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM IS DEPICTED TO DRIFT
EASTWARD THROUGH THE LONG TERM. IT WILL STILL KEEP THE PERSISTENT
STRONG WINDS ACROSS THE ISLANDS. HOWEVER...LATEST SOLUTIONS SHOW A
SLIGHT DECREASE AS THE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM SLIGHTLY WEAKENS...AND
THE AFOREMENTIONED FRONT SHIFTS SLIGHTLY TO THE NORTHEAST. BY
THURSDAY...GLOBAL MODELS SHOW THE AFOREMENTIONED HIGH PRESSURE
SYSTEM RE-STRENGTHENING AND THE FRONT REBUILDING CLOSE TO THE WESTERN
SAMOAN ISLANDS. THUS...BRINGING A SLIGHT UPTICK IN SHOWERS...AND
TIGHTENING THE PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE AREA...CAUSING A
SLIGHT INCREASE IN SOUTHEASTERLIES.

&&

.MARINE...
LATEST WAVE WATCH III SOLUTIONS SHOW THE SOUTHEAST SWELL GRADUALLY
DIMINISHING LATE TONIGHT...EXPECTED TO FALL BELOW ADVISORY
THRESHOLDS FOR HIGH SURF BY SUNDAY. WILL CONTINUE THE HIGH SURF
WARNING THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING THEN LIKELY DOWNGRADE IT TO AN
ADVISORY THEREAFTER IF CONDITIONS IMPROVE. THE PERSISTENT BREEZY
WINDS ACROSS THE AREA WILL MAINTAIN THE ADVISORY FOR SMALL CRAFTS
THROUGH THE FORECAST PACKAGE.

&&

.PPG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
HIGH SURF WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT.

&&

$$
LUTU-MCMOORE







000
FXZS60 NSTU 290031
AFDPPG

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR AMERICAN SAMOA AND INDEPENDENT SAMOA
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PAGO PAGO AS
131 PM SST THU AUG 28 2014

.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)...CURRENT WIND
AND CLOUDY CONDITIONS ACROSS THE ISLANDS RESULT FROM THE PLACEMENT
OF TWO MAIN FEATURES...A STATIONARY FRONT AND A STRONG HIGH
PRESSURE SYSTEM.

LATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A BROAD BAND OF LOW TO MID LEVEL
CLOUDS REMAINING ACROSS THE SAMOAN ISLANDS. THIS BAND IS
ASSOCIATED WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED STATIONARY FRONT ORIENTED JUST
OVER NORTHERN WATERS. GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN AGREEMENT WITH KEEPING
THIS FRONT TO THE NORTH THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE SHORT TERM.
HENCE...THE CLOSE PLACEMENT OF THE FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO KEEP
MOISTURE AROUND THE ISLANDS.

ADDITIONALLY...THE AFOREMENTIONED 1037MB HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM FAR
SOUTH OF THE ISLANDS WILL DRIFT SLOWLY TO THE NORTHEAST AS IT
GRADUALLY WEAKENS. THOUGH MODELS SHOW A SLIGHT WEAKENING IN THE HIGH
PRESSURE SYSTEM...FRESH TO STRONG TRADES WILL CONTINUE TO PREVAIL
THROUGH THE SHORT TERM AS PRESSURE GRADIENTS REMAIN TIGHT ACROSS
THE ISLANDS.

.LONG TERM (SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)...THE MAIN SCENARIO
DOMINATING WEATHER CONDITIONS THROUGH THE SHORT TERM WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH THE LONG TERM. LATEST SOLUTIONS SHOW THE AFOREMENTIONED
FRONT REMAINING STATIONARY TO THE NORTH AND THE HIGH PRESSURE
SYSTEM CONTINUING TO DRIFT EAST AS IT BUILDS RATHER THAN
DIMINISHING. HENCE...EXPECT SHOWERY CONDITIONS WITH A SLIGHT
DECREASE IN WINDS...PREVAILING MODERATE TO FRESH
EASTERLIES...THROUGH THE LONG TERM.

&&

.MARINE...
LATEST WAVE WATCH SOLUTIONS SHOW ANOTHER LARGE SOUTHEAST SWELL
ARRIVING TONIGHT THAT WILL MEET WARNING CRITERIA FOR HIGH SURF.
THIS WILL PEAK TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY AFTERNOON THEN GRADUALLY
DIMINISH THEREAFTER. HENCE...WILL UPGRADE THE ADVISORY FOR HIGH
SURF TO A HIGH SURF WARNING AND KEEP THE ADVISORY FOR SMALL
CRAFTS.

&&

.PPG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
HIGH SURF WARNING IN EFFECT.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT.

&&

$$
LUTU-MCMOORE







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