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000
FXZS60 NSTU 020133
AFDPPG

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR AMERICAN SAMOA AND INDEPENDENT SAMOA
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PAGO PAGO AS
233 PM SST MON SEP 1 2014

.SHORT TERM...
.TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...A STATIONARY FRONT UPSTREAM CONTINUE
TO MAKE HEADLINE THIS WEEK. THUS...A DEVELOPING AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BUILD TO THE SOUTH OF THE REGION HENCE ALLOWING THE STATIONARY
FRONT TO STALL TO THE NORTH OF THE SAMOAN ISLANDS THROUGH THE MIDWEEK.
AS THE TRADE-WIND REGIME PERSIST DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...MODERATE
TO FRESH TRADES AND ISOLATED SHOWERS WILL DOMINATE LOCAL CONDITIONS.

.LONG TERM...
.THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY...A SURFACE RIDGE TO THE SOUTH OF THE REGION
WILL EVENTUALLY FADE DURING SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY. THUS...PARTLY CLOUDY
SKIES AND MINIMAL SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED IF MODELS CONTINUE TO KEEP THE
RIDGE SOUTH OF THE AREA. A LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE UPSTREAM WILL GENERATE
WEATHER AND POSSIBLE TSTMS BEFORE THE END OF THE WEEK. THIS WEATHER
PATTERN WILL EITHER MOVE CLOSER OR REMAIN NORTHWARD OF THE REGION
AS SCATTERED SHOWERS MOVE WESTWARD AND AWAY FROM THE SAMOAN ISLANDS.
FOR NOW...ANTICIPATE ISOLATED SHOWERS AND MODERATE TRADE-WINDS DURING
THE LONG-TERM FCST PERIOD.

&&

.MARINE...LARGE TRADE-WIND GENERATED SEAS AND SWELLS OF 7 TO 9 FEET
WILL DECLINE TO BELOW 1 TO 3 FEET STARTING TUESDAY AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...
A SHORT-LIVED SWELL OF 7 TO 8 FEET IS EXPECTED DURING THURSDAY EVENING
AS A STRONG HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WELL SOUTHEAST REMAINS NEARLY STATIONARY
DURING THURSDAY. IF MODELS ARE CORRECT...A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS MANDATORY
TO REFLECT THIS SITUATION THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT.

&&

.PPG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
.A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY.
.A HIGH SURF ADVISORY.

&&

$$

BAQUI







000
FXZS60 NSTU 010039
AFDPPG

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR AMERICAN SAMOA AND INDEPENDENT SAMOA
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PAGO PAGO AS
139 PM SST SUN AUG 31 2014

.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)...
LATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS AN ACTIVE LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS
ASSOCIATED WITH THE STATIONARY FRONT TO THE NORTH OF THE ISLANDS.
THIS FRONT IS STILL FORECASTED TO REMAIN TO THE NORTH THROUGH THE
SHORT TERM. HOWEVER...LATEST SOLUTIONS SHOW SOME MOISTURE DRIFTING
OVER THE ISLANDS TONIGHT. OTHERWISE...DRIER CONDITIONS AND MODERATE
TO FRESH EASTERLIES WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE TERRITORY AS A SURFACE
RIDGE LIES JUST SOUTH OF THE ISLANDS.

.LONG TERM (WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)...
THE STATIONARY FRONT TO THE NORTH AND THE STAGNANT SURFACE RIDGE TO
THE SOUTH WILL MAINTAIN THE BENIGN WEATHER ACROSS THE ISLANDS. WITH
THE EXCEPTION OF LATE THURSDAY THROUGH AT LEAST FRIDAY...WHERE A SLIGHT
UPTICK IN SHOWERS AND CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED...AS THE AFOREMENTIONED RIDGE
DRIFTS SLIGHTLY TO THE SOUTH...AND THE AFOREMENTIONED FRONT DRIFTS CLOSER
TO THE ISLANDS. UNLIKE PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...LATEST SOLUTIONS SHOW MODERATE
TO FRESH EASTERLIES TO REMAIN THROUGH THE LONG TERM WITHOUT THE SLIGHT
INCREASE THAT WAS PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED TOWARDS THE LATTER PART OF THE
WEEK. RATHER...A WINDS WILL SLIGHTLY DIMINISH THROUGH THE WEEKEND
AS GRADIENTS ARE MORE LAX OVER THE AREA.

&&

.MARINE...
SEAS AND WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO MAINTAIN ADVISORIES FOR HIGH SURF AND
SMALL CRAFTS THROUGH AT LEAST TUESDAY.

&&

.PPG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
HIGH SURF ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT

&&

$$
LUTU-MCMOORE







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