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000
FXZS60 NSTU 190114
AFDPPG

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR AMERICAN SAMOA AND INDEPENDENT SAMOA
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PAGO PAGO AS
214 PM SST THU DEC 18 2014

.SHORT TERM...
.TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...A MONSOONAL TROUGH OVER THE SAMOAN
ISLANDS WILL TRIGGER NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS THROUGH SATURDAY
NIGHT. A BROAD AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE TO THE SOUTH WILL DRIFT EASTWARD
SLOWLY THUS ALLOWING THE MONSOON TROUGH AXIS TO LINGER OVER THE FCST
ZONES THROUGH THE WEEKEND. AS A RESULT...ANTICIPATE WET WEATHER CONDITIONS
WITH BREAKS IN SHOWERS. EXPECT FRESH TO STRONG TRADE-WINDS TO PERSIST
ACROSS THE SAMOAN ISLANDS DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

.LONG TERM...
.SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...A MONSOONAL TROUGH AXIS WILL ENHANCE SCATTERED
SHOWERS OVER THE AREA THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. COMPUTER MODELS SUGGEST
A COUPLE OF LOW PRESSURES ALONG THE TROUGH AXIS HENCE INCREASING RAINFALL
AND POSSIBLE TSTMS ARE TRACKED TO MOVE UPSTREAM. A BROAD AREA OF HIGH
PRESSURE TO THE SOUTH WILL KEEP THE MONSOON TROUGH NEAR THE REGION
UNTIL MIDWEEK. ALTHOUGH THE GFS HINTS AT DEVELOPING A LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM WITH INTENSIFICATION OFF THE EAST OF MANUA DURING TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY...BUT IT IS STILL TOO EARLY TO COMMENT ON THIS. WILL MONITOR
THIS EXPECTED SITUATION AND MAKE NEW UPDATES AS NEW MODELS BECOME
AVAILABLE. FOR NOW...WILL KEEP THE PREV FCST THE SAME. ANTICIPATE
MODERATE TO FRESH TRADE-WINDS TO PERSIST OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.

&&

.MARINE...LARGE TRADE-WIND GENERATED SEAS AND SWELLS WILL PRODUCE
SEAS OF 8 TO 10 FEET TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING...THEN PEAKING
TO NEAR 12 TO 13 FEET DURING FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY. ISSUANCE
OF A SMALL CRAFT AND HIGH SURF ADVISORIES ARE MANDATORY TO REFLECT
THIS SITUATION.

&&

.PPG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
.A FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL SATURDAY.
.A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY.
.A HIGH SURF ADVISORY FOR SOUTH FACING REEFS.

&&

$$

BAQUI








000
FXZS60 NSTU 180119
AFDPPG

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR AMERICAN SAMOA AND INDEPENDENT SAMOA
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PAGO PAGO AS
219 PM SST WED DEC 17 2014

.SHORT TERM...
.TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...A DEVELOPING MONSOONAL TROUGH WILL
USHER SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND TSTMS ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH
FRIDAY NIGHT. TO THE SOUTH OF THE AREA...A STRONG HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM
WELL SOUTHEAST OF SAMOA WILL INTENSIFY THUS ALLOWING THE TRADE-WINDS
TO RETURN TONIGHT. THEREFORE...ANTICIPATE MODERATE BREEZE TO PICK
UP A NOTCH TO NEAR 20 TO 25 KT THURSDAY MORNING.

.LONG TERM...
.SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...MADE NO CHANGES TO THE PREV FCST EXCEPT
TO UPDATE THE WIND SPEED AND DIRECTION FROM SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY
NIGHT. COMPUTER MODEL RESOLUTION HINTS AT BRINGING A LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM NEAR SAVAII AND UPOLU DURING 20/1800 UTC TO 22/0300 UTC. A
MONSOONAL TROUGH OVER THE FCST ZONES WILL TRIGGER LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL AND TSTMS INTO THE NEW WEEK. FOR NOW...WILL MONITOR
FUTURE DEVELOPMENTS OF THE MONSOONAL TROUGH AXIS. ANTICIPATE WET
WEATHER CONDITIONS TO HOVER OVER THE REGION DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL
DAYS.

&&

.MARINE...LARGE TRADE-WIND GENERATED SEAS AND SWELLS WILL BUILD TO
6 TO 8 FEET ON THURSDAY NIGHT. SEA HEIGHTS WILL CONTINUE TO MOUNT
NEAR 8 TO 10 FEET DURING FRIDAY AFTERNOON THEN PEAKING TO NEAR 12
TO 13 FEET SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY AFTERNOON. ISSUANCE OF A SMALL
CRAFT AND HIGH SURF ADVISORIES ARE MANDATORY TO REFLECT THIS EXPECTED
SITUATION...HENCE...THE ARRIVAL OF MODERATE TO FRESH TRADE-WINDS
OVERNIGHT TONIGHT WILL MEET THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THRESHOLD.
THEREFORE...A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS REQUIRED TO BECOME EFFECTIVE
TONIGHT.

&&

.PPG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
.NONE.

&&

$$

BAQUI







000
FXZS60 NSTU 180119
AFDPPG

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR AMERICAN SAMOA AND INDEPENDENT SAMOA
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PAGO PAGO AS
219 PM SST WED DEC 17 2014

.SHORT TERM...
.TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...A DEVELOPING MONSOONAL TROUGH WILL
USHER SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND TSTMS ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH
FRIDAY NIGHT. TO THE SOUTH OF THE AREA...A STRONG HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM
WELL SOUTHEAST OF SAMOA WILL INTENSIFY THUS ALLOWING THE TRADE-WINDS
TO RETURN TONIGHT. THEREFORE...ANTICIPATE MODERATE BREEZE TO PICK
UP A NOTCH TO NEAR 20 TO 25 KT THURSDAY MORNING.

.LONG TERM...
.SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...MADE NO CHANGES TO THE PREV FCST EXCEPT
TO UPDATE THE WIND SPEED AND DIRECTION FROM SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY
NIGHT. COMPUTER MODEL RESOLUTION HINTS AT BRINGING A LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM NEAR SAVAII AND UPOLU DURING 20/1800 UTC TO 22/0300 UTC. A
MONSOONAL TROUGH OVER THE FCST ZONES WILL TRIGGER LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL AND TSTMS INTO THE NEW WEEK. FOR NOW...WILL MONITOR
FUTURE DEVELOPMENTS OF THE MONSOONAL TROUGH AXIS. ANTICIPATE WET
WEATHER CONDITIONS TO HOVER OVER THE REGION DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL
DAYS.

&&

.MARINE...LARGE TRADE-WIND GENERATED SEAS AND SWELLS WILL BUILD TO
6 TO 8 FEET ON THURSDAY NIGHT. SEA HEIGHTS WILL CONTINUE TO MOUNT
NEAR 8 TO 10 FEET DURING FRIDAY AFTERNOON THEN PEAKING TO NEAR 12
TO 13 FEET SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY AFTERNOON. ISSUANCE OF A SMALL
CRAFT AND HIGH SURF ADVISORIES ARE MANDATORY TO REFLECT THIS EXPECTED
SITUATION...HENCE...THE ARRIVAL OF MODERATE TO FRESH TRADE-WINDS
OVERNIGHT TONIGHT WILL MEET THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THRESHOLD.
THEREFORE...A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS REQUIRED TO BECOME EFFECTIVE
TONIGHT.

&&

.PPG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
.NONE.

&&

$$

BAQUI







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