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000
FXUS65 KTWC 291016
AFDTWC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ
315 AM MST TUE JUL 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...A DRYING TREND WILL LIMIT THUNDERSTORMS TO MAINLY NEAR
THE NEW MEXICO AND INTERNATIONAL BORDERS EAST TO SOUTHEAST OF TUCSON
BY WEDNESDAY. INCREASING CHANCES OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL THEN OCCUR BY
FRIDAY FOLLOWED BY SCATTERED MAINLY AFTERNOON AND EVENING
THUNDERSTORMS THIS WEEKEND. EXPECT WARMER DAYTIME TEMPERATURES
THROUGH WEDNESDAY...THEN A MODERATION IN HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL
PREVAIL THIS WEEKEND.

&&

.DISCUSSION...HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT CENTERED OVER WEST TEXAS WITH
RIDGE AXIS EXTENDING NWWD INTO THE PACIFIC NW EARLY THIS MORNING.
BLENDED TOTAL PRECIP WATER VALUES VALID 0730Z RANGED FROM 1.25
INCHES ACROSS THE WHITE MOUNTAINS TO 1.55 INCHES ACROSS WRN PIMA
COUNTY. THESE VALUES ARE EXPECTED TO DECREASE TODAY ESPECIALLY FROM
TUCSON WWD AS MID-LEVEL DRYING OCCURS.

GIVEN THE VERY WEAK GENERALLY WLY STORM STEERING FLOW...ANY SHOWERS/
TSTMS THAT DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING WILL LIKELY BE CONFINED TO
NEAR THE MOUNTAINS. CONTINUED MID-LEVEL DRYING TO OCCUR WED DUE TO A
LIGHT GENERALLY NWLY FLOW REGIME. ANY SHOWERS/TSTMS THAT OCCUR WED
AFTERNOON/EVENING SHOULD BE NEAR THE NEW MEXICO/INTERNATIONAL
BORDERS EAST-TO-SOUTHEAST OF TUCSON.

29/00Z GFS/ECMWF DEPICTED THE LIGHT WLY/NWLY MID-LEVEL FLOW REGIME
TO CONTINUE THUR. HAVE REDUCED THE INHERITED POPS SOMEWHAT FOR THUR
AFTERNOON/EVENING. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST DEPICTS CHANCE-CATEGORY
POPS EAST-TO-SOUTH OF TUCSON THUR AFTERNOON/EVENING...WITH A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF SHOWERS FURTHER NW INTO WRN PIMA/SOUTH CENTRAL PINAL
COUNTIES. HOWEVER...THIS SCENARIO MAY BE OVERDONE AND ADDITIONAL
DOWNWARD POP ADJUSTMENTS FOR THUR MAY YET OCCUR.

THEREAFTER...GFS/ECWMF/CANADIAN MODELS WERE SIMILAR WITH DEPICTING
INCREASING MOISTURE STARTING FRI AND CONTINUING INTO THE WEEKEND AS
THE MID-LEVEL FLOW BECOMES MORE SELY. SCATTERED SHOWERS/TSTMS WILL
RETURN TO MUCH OF SE AZ FRI AFTERNOON/EVENING. GIVEN THIS FLOW
PATTERN...A POTENTIAL SCENARIO OF GUSTY OUTFLOWS PRODUCING BLOWING
DUST IS A FAIRLY DISTINCT POSSIBILITY. SCATTERED MAINLY AFTERNOON/
EVENING SHOWERS/TSTMS WILL THEN CONTINUE THIS WEEKEND. GFS/ECMWF
WERE FAIRLY SIMILAR WITH DEPICTING ANOTHER DRYING TREND MON. THUS...
SCATTERED SHOWERS/TSTMS MON SHOULD BE LIMITED TO ERN SECTIONS WITH
LESSER COVERAGE OF SHOWERS/TSTMS FROM TUCSON WWD INTO WRN PIMA
COUNTY.

HIGH TEMPS THIS AFTERNOON WILL GENERALLY BE ABOUT 5 DEGS F WARMER
VERSUS TEMPS ACHIEVED MON. SLIGHTLY WARMER DAYTIME TEMPS WILL OCCUR
WED FOLLOWED BY A COOLING TREND FRI-SUN.

&&

.AVIATION...VALID THRU 30/12Z.
ISOLATED -TSRA/-SHRA WILL BE MAINLY NEAR THE MOUNTAINS THIS
AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING. OTHERWISE...MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES THRU MID-
MORNING THEN A FEW TO OCCASIONALLY BROKEN CLOUDS AROUND 8-12K FT AGL
LATE THIS MORNING INTO THIS EVENING. CLEARING SKIES MOST SECTIONS
AFTER ABOUT 30/04Z. SURFACE WIND WILL BE MOSTLY LESS THAN 10 KTS
INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING. AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR
TAF AMENDMENTS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...EXPECT THUNDERSTORMS TO BE LIMITED TO MAINLY NEAR
THE MOUNTAINS THROUGH THURSDAY. THEREAFTER...SCATTERED MOSTLY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS WILL RETURN STARTING FRIDAY AND
CONTINUE THIS WEEKEND AS DEEPER MOISTURE MOVES INTO THE AREA.
OTHERWISE...NORMAL DIURNAL WIND TRENDS WILL OCCUR WITH OCCASIONAL
GUSTS DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS DUE TO DAYTIME HEATING.

&&

.TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...YOUTUBE...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/TUCSON

FRANCIS






000
FXUS65 KTWC 291016
AFDTWC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ
315 AM MST TUE JUL 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...A DRYING TREND WILL LIMIT THUNDERSTORMS TO MAINLY NEAR
THE NEW MEXICO AND INTERNATIONAL BORDERS EAST TO SOUTHEAST OF TUCSON
BY WEDNESDAY. INCREASING CHANCES OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL THEN OCCUR BY
FRIDAY FOLLOWED BY SCATTERED MAINLY AFTERNOON AND EVENING
THUNDERSTORMS THIS WEEKEND. EXPECT WARMER DAYTIME TEMPERATURES
THROUGH WEDNESDAY...THEN A MODERATION IN HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL
PREVAIL THIS WEEKEND.

&&

.DISCUSSION...HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT CENTERED OVER WEST TEXAS WITH
RIDGE AXIS EXTENDING NWWD INTO THE PACIFIC NW EARLY THIS MORNING.
BLENDED TOTAL PRECIP WATER VALUES VALID 0730Z RANGED FROM 1.25
INCHES ACROSS THE WHITE MOUNTAINS TO 1.55 INCHES ACROSS WRN PIMA
COUNTY. THESE VALUES ARE EXPECTED TO DECREASE TODAY ESPECIALLY FROM
TUCSON WWD AS MID-LEVEL DRYING OCCURS.

GIVEN THE VERY WEAK GENERALLY WLY STORM STEERING FLOW...ANY SHOWERS/
TSTMS THAT DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING WILL LIKELY BE CONFINED TO
NEAR THE MOUNTAINS. CONTINUED MID-LEVEL DRYING TO OCCUR WED DUE TO A
LIGHT GENERALLY NWLY FLOW REGIME. ANY SHOWERS/TSTMS THAT OCCUR WED
AFTERNOON/EVENING SHOULD BE NEAR THE NEW MEXICO/INTERNATIONAL
BORDERS EAST-TO-SOUTHEAST OF TUCSON.

29/00Z GFS/ECMWF DEPICTED THE LIGHT WLY/NWLY MID-LEVEL FLOW REGIME
TO CONTINUE THUR. HAVE REDUCED THE INHERITED POPS SOMEWHAT FOR THUR
AFTERNOON/EVENING. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST DEPICTS CHANCE-CATEGORY
POPS EAST-TO-SOUTH OF TUCSON THUR AFTERNOON/EVENING...WITH A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF SHOWERS FURTHER NW INTO WRN PIMA/SOUTH CENTRAL PINAL
COUNTIES. HOWEVER...THIS SCENARIO MAY BE OVERDONE AND ADDITIONAL
DOWNWARD POP ADJUSTMENTS FOR THUR MAY YET OCCUR.

THEREAFTER...GFS/ECWMF/CANADIAN MODELS WERE SIMILAR WITH DEPICTING
INCREASING MOISTURE STARTING FRI AND CONTINUING INTO THE WEEKEND AS
THE MID-LEVEL FLOW BECOMES MORE SELY. SCATTERED SHOWERS/TSTMS WILL
RETURN TO MUCH OF SE AZ FRI AFTERNOON/EVENING. GIVEN THIS FLOW
PATTERN...A POTENTIAL SCENARIO OF GUSTY OUTFLOWS PRODUCING BLOWING
DUST IS A FAIRLY DISTINCT POSSIBILITY. SCATTERED MAINLY AFTERNOON/
EVENING SHOWERS/TSTMS WILL THEN CONTINUE THIS WEEKEND. GFS/ECMWF
WERE FAIRLY SIMILAR WITH DEPICTING ANOTHER DRYING TREND MON. THUS...
SCATTERED SHOWERS/TSTMS MON SHOULD BE LIMITED TO ERN SECTIONS WITH
LESSER COVERAGE OF SHOWERS/TSTMS FROM TUCSON WWD INTO WRN PIMA
COUNTY.

HIGH TEMPS THIS AFTERNOON WILL GENERALLY BE ABOUT 5 DEGS F WARMER
VERSUS TEMPS ACHIEVED MON. SLIGHTLY WARMER DAYTIME TEMPS WILL OCCUR
WED FOLLOWED BY A COOLING TREND FRI-SUN.

&&

.AVIATION...VALID THRU 30/12Z.
ISOLATED -TSRA/-SHRA WILL BE MAINLY NEAR THE MOUNTAINS THIS
AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING. OTHERWISE...MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES THRU MID-
MORNING THEN A FEW TO OCCASIONALLY BROKEN CLOUDS AROUND 8-12K FT AGL
LATE THIS MORNING INTO THIS EVENING. CLEARING SKIES MOST SECTIONS
AFTER ABOUT 30/04Z. SURFACE WIND WILL BE MOSTLY LESS THAN 10 KTS
INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING. AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR
TAF AMENDMENTS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...EXPECT THUNDERSTORMS TO BE LIMITED TO MAINLY NEAR
THE MOUNTAINS THROUGH THURSDAY. THEREAFTER...SCATTERED MOSTLY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS WILL RETURN STARTING FRIDAY AND
CONTINUE THIS WEEKEND AS DEEPER MOISTURE MOVES INTO THE AREA.
OTHERWISE...NORMAL DIURNAL WIND TRENDS WILL OCCUR WITH OCCASIONAL
GUSTS DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS DUE TO DAYTIME HEATING.

&&

.TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...YOUTUBE...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/TUCSON

FRANCIS




  [top]

000
FXUS65 KFGZ 290957
AFDFGZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ
300 AM MST TUE JUL 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...A DRIER WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL BRING LESS SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY THROUGH THURSDAY...WITH STORMS LIMITED TO THE
AFTERNOONS AND EARLY EVENINGS. STARTING FRIDAY...DEEPER MOISTURE
SHOULD SLOWLY RETURN TO THE AREA WITH BETTER CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.DISCUSSION...SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THAT CLOUDS ARE CLEARING THE
NORTHLAND FROM WEST TO EAST EARLY THIS MORNING. PROGS CONTINUE TO
SHOW DRIER AIR TO MOVE INTO NORTHWEST AZ TODAY AND SPREAD
SOUTHEASTWARD THROUGH THURSDAY. THIS WILL LEAD TO MUCH LESS SHOWER
AND THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE...ESPECIALLY FOR AREAS NORTH OF INTERSTATE
40 AND YAVAPAI COUNTY. THE FORECAST CHANGES WERE TO REMOVE PRECIP
CHANCES FROM 11 PM TO 11 AM FOR ALL AREAS EXCEPT AROUND THE WHITE
MTS WHERE STORMS MAY GET A START BY LATE MORNING. NIGHTTIME SKY
COVER SHOULD BE MOSTLY CLEAR BY MIDNIGHT.

FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...PROGS SHOW THE HIGH PRESSURE CENTER TO BEGIN
MOVING FROM ARIZONA ON FRIDAY INTO SW COLORADO BY SUNDAY. WIND
STREAMLINES BECOME EASTERLY AND INCREASE IN DEPTH WHICH SHOULD LEAD
TO DEEPER MOISTURE RETURNING TO NORTHERN ARIZONA. THUS PRECIP
CHANCES AND EXPECTED CLOUD COVER INCREASE STARTING FRIDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 12Z PACKAGE...EXPECT WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP AFTER 18Z TODAY...CONTINUING INTO THE
EARLY EVENING HOURS BEFORE ENDING OVERNIGHT. MVFR VSBY AND WIND
GUSTS UP TO 35KTS PSBL IN THE STRONGER STORMS...WITH GENERALLY LIGHT
SOUTHWESTERLY BREEZES OTHERWISE. AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR
AMENDMENTS.

&&

.FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC.........DL
AVIATION.......KD

FOR NORTHERN ARIZONA WEATHER INFORMATION VISIT
WEATHER.GOV/FLAGSTAFF










000
FXUS65 KFGZ 290957
AFDFGZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ
300 AM MST TUE JUL 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...A DRIER WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL BRING LESS SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY THROUGH THURSDAY...WITH STORMS LIMITED TO THE
AFTERNOONS AND EARLY EVENINGS. STARTING FRIDAY...DEEPER MOISTURE
SHOULD SLOWLY RETURN TO THE AREA WITH BETTER CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.DISCUSSION...SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THAT CLOUDS ARE CLEARING THE
NORTHLAND FROM WEST TO EAST EARLY THIS MORNING. PROGS CONTINUE TO
SHOW DRIER AIR TO MOVE INTO NORTHWEST AZ TODAY AND SPREAD
SOUTHEASTWARD THROUGH THURSDAY. THIS WILL LEAD TO MUCH LESS SHOWER
AND THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE...ESPECIALLY FOR AREAS NORTH OF INTERSTATE
40 AND YAVAPAI COUNTY. THE FORECAST CHANGES WERE TO REMOVE PRECIP
CHANCES FROM 11 PM TO 11 AM FOR ALL AREAS EXCEPT AROUND THE WHITE
MTS WHERE STORMS MAY GET A START BY LATE MORNING. NIGHTTIME SKY
COVER SHOULD BE MOSTLY CLEAR BY MIDNIGHT.

FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...PROGS SHOW THE HIGH PRESSURE CENTER TO BEGIN
MOVING FROM ARIZONA ON FRIDAY INTO SW COLORADO BY SUNDAY. WIND
STREAMLINES BECOME EASTERLY AND INCREASE IN DEPTH WHICH SHOULD LEAD
TO DEEPER MOISTURE RETURNING TO NORTHERN ARIZONA. THUS PRECIP
CHANCES AND EXPECTED CLOUD COVER INCREASE STARTING FRIDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 12Z PACKAGE...EXPECT WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP AFTER 18Z TODAY...CONTINUING INTO THE
EARLY EVENING HOURS BEFORE ENDING OVERNIGHT. MVFR VSBY AND WIND
GUSTS UP TO 35KTS PSBL IN THE STRONGER STORMS...WITH GENERALLY LIGHT
SOUTHWESTERLY BREEZES OTHERWISE. AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR
AMENDMENTS.

&&

.FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC.........DL
AVIATION.......KD

FOR NORTHERN ARIZONA WEATHER INFORMATION VISIT
WEATHER.GOV/FLAGSTAFF








  [top]

000
FXUS65 KPSR 290755
AFDPSR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PHOENIX AZ
1255 AM MST TUE JUL 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
DRIER AIR WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE INTO THE AREA TODAY...RESULTING IN
DECREASED CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THURSDAY
ALONG WITH INCREASED TEMPERATURES. A RETURN TO A MORE TYPICAL
MONSOON REGIME IS EXPECTED LATE IN THE WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND AS
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE ONCE AGAIN EXPECTED ACROSS THE REGION.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
VERY QUIET WEATHER ACROSS THE REGION THIS MORNING AS CONVECTION
CONTINUES TO DISSIPATE ACROSS NORTHERN ARIZONA AND SOUTHERN NEVADA.
ACROSS THE LOWER DESERTS OF ARIZONA AND SOUTHEAST
CALIFORNIA...CONVECTION WAS VIRTUALLY NON-EXISTENT DURING THE
AFTERNOON HOURS AS THE SUBSIDENCE ASSOCIATED WITH THE LARGER SCALE
TROUGH OVER NORTHERN BAJA WAS TOO MUCH TO OVERCOME. THUS...SKIES
WERE MOSTLY CLEAR THIS MORNING WITH TEMPS RAPIDLY DROPPING THROUGH
THE MID TO UPPER 80S AS OF 0745Z.

THE FLOW ALOFT HAS SHIFTED AROUND OUT OF THE WEST AND DRYING OF THE
MID LEVELS HAS COMMENCED. PWATS WILL CONTINUE TO DECREASE THROUGH
THE DAY TODAY WITH ONLY A NARROW BAND OF MOISTURE LINGERING OVER THE
MOUNTAINS EAST OF PHOENIX. WITH NO DISCERNIBLE TRIGGERS SEEN IN THE
UPSTREAM WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND NONE FORECAST FROM ANY OF THE
OPERATIONAL MODELS OR ENSEMBLES...I WILL RETAIN CLIMO-LIKE POPS EAST
OF PHOENIX BUT KEEP THE DESERTS DRY TODAY. ANY CONVECTION THAT
DEVELOPS SHOULD BE SHORT LIVED AND DISORGANIZED. MUCH OF THE SAME
FORECAST FOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY AS DRY AIR WILL REMAIN PARKED
OVER THE AREA COURTESY OF WEST/NORTHWEST WINDS FROM 700MB-300MB.

BOTH THE EUROPEAN AND GFS TRY AND SUGGEST A RETURN TO SOUTHEASTERLY
WINDS ON FRIDAY WITH DEEPER MOISTURE LAGGING BEHIND AND NOT ARRIVING
ACROSS OUR FORECAST AREA UNTIL THE WEEKEND. WILL NEED TO MONITOR AS
THINGS GET CLOSER BUT LOOKING AT THE BIG PICTURE...FRIDAY COULD SEE
DISTANT STORMS TO THE SOUTHEAST ALONG WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR BLOWING
DUST...WHEREAS THE WEEKEND COULD SEE CONVECTION DEVELOP OVERHEAD.
WILL MAINTAIN THE IDEA OF ELEVATED POPS FRIDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND
BUT THE FINER DETAILS WILL NEED TO BE WORKED OUT AS WE GET FURTHER
INTO THE WEEK. UNFORTUNATELY THERE ARE VARYING SOLUTIONS ON WHAT
HAPPENS FROM MONDAY ONWARD WITH EQUAL CHANCES OF WESTERLY FLOW
RETURNING OR A CONTINUED SOUTHEASTERLY FETCH. GOING WITH CLIMO FOR
NOW.

AS FOR TEMPERATURES...HIGHS WILL REACH THEIR PEAK AROUND THE 110
DEGREE MARK WEDNESDAY/THURSDAY AS A RESULT OF THE DRIER
AIRMASS...THEN DECREASE AND SETTLE CLOSER TO NORMAL /103-105/
THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION...
SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA INCLUDING KPHX...KIWA...AND KSDL...
ALTHOUGH AN ISOLATED TS WILL STILL BE POSSIBLE THIS EVENING
SURROUNDING CNTRL ARIZONA...DIRECT IMPACTS ON TERMINALS ARE
UNLIKELY. NO OTHER STORMS WERE NOTED IN THE SRN OR ERN PARTS OF THE
STATE...AND LIGHT WESTERLY OR VARIABLE WINDS WILL LIKELY PREVAIL
LONGER INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS THAN PREVIOUS NIGHTS.
OTHERWISE...ONLY FEW/SCT MID/HIGH CLOUDS EXPECTED THROUGH
TUESDAY...WITH STORM CHANCES TUESDAY AFTERNOON FAR LOWER THAN RECENT
DAYS.

SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA AND SOUTHWEST ARIZONA INCLUDING KIPL AND KBLH...
NO AVIATION IMPACTS EXPECTED THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON WITH ONLY
OCCASIONAL MID/HIGH CLOUDS GENERALLY CLEARING THROUGH TUESDAY. STORM
CHANCES WILL BE ALMOST NIL BEYOND THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY.

AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDED TAFS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY...
DRIER THAN NORMAL CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THURSDAY. STORM
CHANCES WILL BE SLIGHT AND WILL BE LIMITED TO THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF
EASTERN ARIZONA. LATE IN THE WEEK AND OVER THE WEEKEND...AN
INCREASE IN MOISTURE AND ASSOCIATED HUMIDITIES IS ANTICIPATED AND
STORM CHANCES...THOUGH SLIGHT...EXPAND TO THE LOWER ELEVATIONS. HIGH
TEMPERATURES TREND DOWNWARD AS WELL.

&&

.PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

AZ...NONE.

CA...NONE.

&&

$$

VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/PHOENIX

DISCUSSION...LEINS
AVIATION...MO
FIRE WEATHER...HIRSCH/AJ





000
FXUS65 KPSR 290755
AFDPSR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PHOENIX AZ
1255 AM MST TUE JUL 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
DRIER AIR WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE INTO THE AREA TODAY...RESULTING IN
DECREASED CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THURSDAY
ALONG WITH INCREASED TEMPERATURES. A RETURN TO A MORE TYPICAL
MONSOON REGIME IS EXPECTED LATE IN THE WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND AS
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE ONCE AGAIN EXPECTED ACROSS THE REGION.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
VERY QUIET WEATHER ACROSS THE REGION THIS MORNING AS CONVECTION
CONTINUES TO DISSIPATE ACROSS NORTHERN ARIZONA AND SOUTHERN NEVADA.
ACROSS THE LOWER DESERTS OF ARIZONA AND SOUTHEAST
CALIFORNIA...CONVECTION WAS VIRTUALLY NON-EXISTENT DURING THE
AFTERNOON HOURS AS THE SUBSIDENCE ASSOCIATED WITH THE LARGER SCALE
TROUGH OVER NORTHERN BAJA WAS TOO MUCH TO OVERCOME. THUS...SKIES
WERE MOSTLY CLEAR THIS MORNING WITH TEMPS RAPIDLY DROPPING THROUGH
THE MID TO UPPER 80S AS OF 0745Z.

THE FLOW ALOFT HAS SHIFTED AROUND OUT OF THE WEST AND DRYING OF THE
MID LEVELS HAS COMMENCED. PWATS WILL CONTINUE TO DECREASE THROUGH
THE DAY TODAY WITH ONLY A NARROW BAND OF MOISTURE LINGERING OVER THE
MOUNTAINS EAST OF PHOENIX. WITH NO DISCERNIBLE TRIGGERS SEEN IN THE
UPSTREAM WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND NONE FORECAST FROM ANY OF THE
OPERATIONAL MODELS OR ENSEMBLES...I WILL RETAIN CLIMO-LIKE POPS EAST
OF PHOENIX BUT KEEP THE DESERTS DRY TODAY. ANY CONVECTION THAT
DEVELOPS SHOULD BE SHORT LIVED AND DISORGANIZED. MUCH OF THE SAME
FORECAST FOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY AS DRY AIR WILL REMAIN PARKED
OVER THE AREA COURTESY OF WEST/NORTHWEST WINDS FROM 700MB-300MB.

BOTH THE EUROPEAN AND GFS TRY AND SUGGEST A RETURN TO SOUTHEASTERLY
WINDS ON FRIDAY WITH DEEPER MOISTURE LAGGING BEHIND AND NOT ARRIVING
ACROSS OUR FORECAST AREA UNTIL THE WEEKEND. WILL NEED TO MONITOR AS
THINGS GET CLOSER BUT LOOKING AT THE BIG PICTURE...FRIDAY COULD SEE
DISTANT STORMS TO THE SOUTHEAST ALONG WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR BLOWING
DUST...WHEREAS THE WEEKEND COULD SEE CONVECTION DEVELOP OVERHEAD.
WILL MAINTAIN THE IDEA OF ELEVATED POPS FRIDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND
BUT THE FINER DETAILS WILL NEED TO BE WORKED OUT AS WE GET FURTHER
INTO THE WEEK. UNFORTUNATELY THERE ARE VARYING SOLUTIONS ON WHAT
HAPPENS FROM MONDAY ONWARD WITH EQUAL CHANCES OF WESTERLY FLOW
RETURNING OR A CONTINUED SOUTHEASTERLY FETCH. GOING WITH CLIMO FOR
NOW.

AS FOR TEMPERATURES...HIGHS WILL REACH THEIR PEAK AROUND THE 110
DEGREE MARK WEDNESDAY/THURSDAY AS A RESULT OF THE DRIER
AIRMASS...THEN DECREASE AND SETTLE CLOSER TO NORMAL /103-105/
THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION...
SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA INCLUDING KPHX...KIWA...AND KSDL...
ALTHOUGH AN ISOLATED TS WILL STILL BE POSSIBLE THIS EVENING
SURROUNDING CNTRL ARIZONA...DIRECT IMPACTS ON TERMINALS ARE
UNLIKELY. NO OTHER STORMS WERE NOTED IN THE SRN OR ERN PARTS OF THE
STATE...AND LIGHT WESTERLY OR VARIABLE WINDS WILL LIKELY PREVAIL
LONGER INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS THAN PREVIOUS NIGHTS.
OTHERWISE...ONLY FEW/SCT MID/HIGH CLOUDS EXPECTED THROUGH
TUESDAY...WITH STORM CHANCES TUESDAY AFTERNOON FAR LOWER THAN RECENT
DAYS.

SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA AND SOUTHWEST ARIZONA INCLUDING KIPL AND KBLH...
NO AVIATION IMPACTS EXPECTED THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON WITH ONLY
OCCASIONAL MID/HIGH CLOUDS GENERALLY CLEARING THROUGH TUESDAY. STORM
CHANCES WILL BE ALMOST NIL BEYOND THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY.

AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDED TAFS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY...
DRIER THAN NORMAL CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THURSDAY. STORM
CHANCES WILL BE SLIGHT AND WILL BE LIMITED TO THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF
EASTERN ARIZONA. LATE IN THE WEEK AND OVER THE WEEKEND...AN
INCREASE IN MOISTURE AND ASSOCIATED HUMIDITIES IS ANTICIPATED AND
STORM CHANCES...THOUGH SLIGHT...EXPAND TO THE LOWER ELEVATIONS. HIGH
TEMPERATURES TREND DOWNWARD AS WELL.

&&

.PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

AZ...NONE.

CA...NONE.

&&

$$

VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/PHOENIX

DISCUSSION...LEINS
AVIATION...MO
FIRE WEATHER...HIRSCH/AJ






000
FXUS65 KFGZ 290409
AFDFGZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ
910 PM MST MON JUL 28 2014

.SYNOPSIS...EXPECT DECREASING SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY FROM
TUESDAY ONWARD AS A DRY WESTERLY FLOW SETS UP ACROSS NORTHERN
ARIZONA. ON SATURDAY...SOUTHERLY FLOW MAY BRING DEEPER MOISTURE BACK
INTO NORTHERN ARIZONA LEADING TO BETTER CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.DISCUSSION...AN UPPER LEVEL LOW MOVING NORTH ALONG THE CALIFORNIA
ARIZONA BORDER HELPED TO BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF SLOW MOVING SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE REGION TODAY. THE LOW WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE
UP INTO THE UTAH BORDER REGION AROUND MIDNIGHT...EXPECT CONTINUED
SHOWERS AND STORMS INTO THE EVENING HOURS FOR THE NORTHERN THIRD OF
ARIZONA.

ON TUESDAY...THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE WILL MOVE TO A WEST TO EAST
ORIENTATION STRADDLING THE MEXICAN BORDER. THE POSITION OF THIS
RIDGE IS UNFAVORABLE FOR TAPPING INTO DEEPER TROPICAL MOISTURE THAT
WE NEED TO FUEL STORM DEVELOPMENT. DRIER AIR WILL INSTEAD MOVE INTO
ARIZONA FROM THE PACIFIC RESULTING IN LOWER STORM ACTIVITY FROM
TUESDAY THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK.

BY SATURDAY...THERE ARE EARLY SIGNS IN OUR LONG RANGE MODELS THAT
THE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL SHIFT TO A MORE SOUTH TO NORTH
ORIENTATION. THIS CHANGE IN THE POSITION OF THE RIDGE IS FAVORABLE
FOR A DEEPER SURGE OF TROPICAL MOISTURE INTO NORTHERN ARIZONA AND
POTENTIALLY A RETURN TO HIGHER CHANCES FOR RAIN AND STORMS.

&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 06Z PACKAGE...EXPECT WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS THIS EVENING WITH BRIEF PERIODS OF MVFR
VISIBILITIES IN HEAVY RAIN SHOWERS. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE AFTER 18Z TUESDAY. AVIATION
DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDMENTS.

&&

.FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC.........BOHLIN
AVIATION.......BOHLIN

FOR NORTHERN ARIZONA WEATHER INFORMATION VISIT
WEATHER.GOV/FLAGSTAFF








000
FXUS65 KFGZ 290409
AFDFGZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ
910 PM MST MON JUL 28 2014

.SYNOPSIS...EXPECT DECREASING SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY FROM
TUESDAY ONWARD AS A DRY WESTERLY FLOW SETS UP ACROSS NORTHERN
ARIZONA. ON SATURDAY...SOUTHERLY FLOW MAY BRING DEEPER MOISTURE BACK
INTO NORTHERN ARIZONA LEADING TO BETTER CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.DISCUSSION...AN UPPER LEVEL LOW MOVING NORTH ALONG THE CALIFORNIA
ARIZONA BORDER HELPED TO BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF SLOW MOVING SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE REGION TODAY. THE LOW WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE
UP INTO THE UTAH BORDER REGION AROUND MIDNIGHT...EXPECT CONTINUED
SHOWERS AND STORMS INTO THE EVENING HOURS FOR THE NORTHERN THIRD OF
ARIZONA.

ON TUESDAY...THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE WILL MOVE TO A WEST TO EAST
ORIENTATION STRADDLING THE MEXICAN BORDER. THE POSITION OF THIS
RIDGE IS UNFAVORABLE FOR TAPPING INTO DEEPER TROPICAL MOISTURE THAT
WE NEED TO FUEL STORM DEVELOPMENT. DRIER AIR WILL INSTEAD MOVE INTO
ARIZONA FROM THE PACIFIC RESULTING IN LOWER STORM ACTIVITY FROM
TUESDAY THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK.

BY SATURDAY...THERE ARE EARLY SIGNS IN OUR LONG RANGE MODELS THAT
THE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL SHIFT TO A MORE SOUTH TO NORTH
ORIENTATION. THIS CHANGE IN THE POSITION OF THE RIDGE IS FAVORABLE
FOR A DEEPER SURGE OF TROPICAL MOISTURE INTO NORTHERN ARIZONA AND
POTENTIALLY A RETURN TO HIGHER CHANCES FOR RAIN AND STORMS.

&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 06Z PACKAGE...EXPECT WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS THIS EVENING WITH BRIEF PERIODS OF MVFR
VISIBILITIES IN HEAVY RAIN SHOWERS. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE AFTER 18Z TUESDAY. AVIATION
DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDMENTS.

&&

.FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC.........BOHLIN
AVIATION.......BOHLIN

FOR NORTHERN ARIZONA WEATHER INFORMATION VISIT
WEATHER.GOV/FLAGSTAFF







000
FXUS65 KTWC 290404
AFDTWC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ
904 PM MST MON JUL 28 2014

.SYNOPSIS...ONLY A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
TONIGHT...MAINLY NEAR THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER AND ALSO ALONG THE
NEW MEXICO BORDER...OTHERWISE DRY. CONTINUED VERY LOW THREAT FOR
THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH MID WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVERHEAD
ACCOMPANIED BY SEVERAL DEGREES OF HEATING TUESDAY OR WEDNESDAY. A
STRONGER CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS RETURNS ONCE AGAIN TO END THE WEEK
AND TAKE US INTO NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.DISCUSSION...WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND 29/00Z UPPER-AIR PLOTS SHOW
HIGH PRESSURE GENERALLY OVER WEST TEXAS THIS EVENING WITH A
SHORTWAVE TROUGH CURRENTLY MAKING ITS WAY THROUGH SOUTHERN NEVADA
AND NORTHWESTERN ARIZONA. A WEAK DISTURBANCE ALSO POSSIBLE OVER
NORTH CENTRAL SONORA AND LIFTING NORTH NORTHEAST. IR SATELLITE
IMAGERY SHOWS A COMPLEX WELL TO OUR SOUTH SOUTHEAST OVER EXTREME
SOUTHERN SONORA AND SOUTHWESTERN CHIHUAHUA...WITH SOME WEAKER CELLS
A BIT FARTHER NORTH OVER THE SIERRA MADRES...STRADDLING THE
SONORA/CHIHUAHUA BORDER AND ALSO INTO SOUTHWESTERN NEW MEXICO.

CURRENT RADAR MOSAIC FROM AROUND THE REGION SHOWS ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS NORTH OF THE RIM COUNTRY THIS EVENING AND MOVING
NORTH. MEANWHILE...CLOSER TO HOME...ONLY ISOLATED ACTIVITY
REMAINS...AND EVEN THAT RESIDES OUTSIDE OF MY FORECAST AREA OVER
PARTS OF SONORA AND CHIHUAHUA MEXICO AND DRIFTING NORTH NORTHEAST.
WE DID HAVE ISOLATED STORM DEVELOP EARLIER THIS AFTERNOON...MOSTLY
OVER THE MOUNTAINS...BUT THAT HAS LONG SINCE DISSIPATED. THAT
SAID...WILL REDUCE THE POP FORECAST FOR THE REMAINDER OF TONIGHT.
WILL LEAVE SLIGHT CHANCES ALONG THE ARIZONA/NEW MEXICO BORDER IN
CASE OUTFLOWS TO OUR SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST HELP TRIGGER SOME
DEVELOPMENT OVERNIGHT...OTHERWISE DRY.

AS OF 04Z (9 PM MST)...TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE REGION RANGED FROM
THE MID 70S TO THE UPPER 80S...WITH THE TUCSON INTL AIRPORT
REPORTING A TEMP OF 89 DEGS...AFTER AN AFTERNOON HIGH OF 95
DEGS...WHICH WAS 3 DEGS BELOW NORMAL FOR THIS DATE. WILL MAKE SOME
MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO THE HOURLY TEMPERATURE GRIDS IN THE SHORT TERM
TO BETTER REFLECT THE MOST RECENT TEMP TRENDS.

FOR DETAILS REGARDING THE FORECAST BEYOND TONIGHT...PLEASE REFER TO
THE PREVIOUS DISCUSSION BELOW.

&&

.AVIATION...VALID THRU 30/00Z.
WHAT LITTLE THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WE HAD EARLIER THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING HAS DISSIPATED. FEW-SCT CLOUDS AT 9-12K FT WITH SCT 20K FT
CIRRUS CLOUDS THROUGH AROUND 06Z...THEN MOSTLY SKC. CLOUDS PERHAPS
LINGERING WITH A STRAY -SHRA/-TSRA NEAR KDUG DEVELOPING LATE
TONIGHT. A SIMILAR DAY ON TUESDAY WITH ONLY ISOLATED -TSRA
DEVELOPMENT DURING THE AFTERNOON...MAINLY OVER THE MOUNTAINS.
AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR TAF AMENDMENTS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...DRIER CONDITIONS WILL PROVIDE DECREASED THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY FOR MUCH OF THE AREA TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...EXCEPT FOR
AREAS NEAR THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER AND NEW MEXICO BORDER AREAS.
THEREAFTER...SCATTERED MOSTLY AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS
WILL PREVAIL FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY AS DEEPER MOISTURE RETURNS TO THE
AREA. OTHERWISE...NORMAL DIURNAL WIND TRENDS WILL OCCUR WITH
OCCASIONAL GUSTS DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS DUE TO DAYTIME HEATING.

&&

.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...OVERALL RIDGE AXIS JUST EAST AND/OR NORTHEAST
OF THE AREA COMBINED WITH GULF SURGE A COUPLE OF DAYS AGO HAS SERVED
SOUTHEAST ARIZONA WELL OVER THE PAST 3 DAYS. DOWNTURN EXPECTED
STARTING AS SOON AS TUESDAY AS A SECONDARY HIGH CENTER CONSOLIDATES
NEARLY OVERHEAD TO A LITTLE SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST OF OUR AREAS. THIS
WILL TEND TO PUSH STORM ACTIVITY BACK TO BORDER AND MOUNTAIN AREAS
WHILE WE HEAT UP SEVERAL DEGREES (PERHAPS AGAIN CLIMBING TO A FEW
DEGREES SHY OF RECORD LEVELS). ONE CAVEAT TO THIS IS THE  MOISTURE
TRANSPORT TRENDS UP THE GULF ARE ONCE AGAIN INCREASING...ENHANCED
SOMEWHAT BY THAT NICE COMPLEX THAT PUSHED INTO THE MOUTH OF THE GULF
LAST NIGHT FROM WESTERN MEXICO AROUND 23N. WE SHOULD MANAGE TO AT
LEAST KEEP INTERNATIONAL BORDER AREAS ACTIVE OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS.

LATE IN THE WEEK THE SEGMENT OF THE RIDGE OVER OUR AREA SHOULD
WEAKEN AS WE SEE SOME WEAK TROUGHINESS TENDENCIES NEAR THE CENTRAL
AND NORTHERN COAST. THAT ALLOW A DEGREE OR TWO OF COOLING IN MID
LEVELS WHILE ALSO ALLOWING DEEPER MOISTURE IMPORT ONCE AGAIN. ECMWF
KEYS ON A NICE IMPULSE ROTATING IN FROM NORTHERN MEXICO FRIDAY
AFTERNOON FOR A STRONG UPTICK IN THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE THAT SHOULD
TAKE US INTO THE WEEKEND.

&&

.TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...YOUTUBE...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/TUCSON

CURRENT DISCUSSION...MOLLERE
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...MEYER/GLUECK






000
FXUS65 KTWC 290404
AFDTWC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ
904 PM MST MON JUL 28 2014

.SYNOPSIS...ONLY A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
TONIGHT...MAINLY NEAR THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER AND ALSO ALONG THE
NEW MEXICO BORDER...OTHERWISE DRY. CONTINUED VERY LOW THREAT FOR
THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH MID WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVERHEAD
ACCOMPANIED BY SEVERAL DEGREES OF HEATING TUESDAY OR WEDNESDAY. A
STRONGER CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS RETURNS ONCE AGAIN TO END THE WEEK
AND TAKE US INTO NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.DISCUSSION...WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND 29/00Z UPPER-AIR PLOTS SHOW
HIGH PRESSURE GENERALLY OVER WEST TEXAS THIS EVENING WITH A
SHORTWAVE TROUGH CURRENTLY MAKING ITS WAY THROUGH SOUTHERN NEVADA
AND NORTHWESTERN ARIZONA. A WEAK DISTURBANCE ALSO POSSIBLE OVER
NORTH CENTRAL SONORA AND LIFTING NORTH NORTHEAST. IR SATELLITE
IMAGERY SHOWS A COMPLEX WELL TO OUR SOUTH SOUTHEAST OVER EXTREME
SOUTHERN SONORA AND SOUTHWESTERN CHIHUAHUA...WITH SOME WEAKER CELLS
A BIT FARTHER NORTH OVER THE SIERRA MADRES...STRADDLING THE
SONORA/CHIHUAHUA BORDER AND ALSO INTO SOUTHWESTERN NEW MEXICO.

CURRENT RADAR MOSAIC FROM AROUND THE REGION SHOWS ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS NORTH OF THE RIM COUNTRY THIS EVENING AND MOVING
NORTH. MEANWHILE...CLOSER TO HOME...ONLY ISOLATED ACTIVITY
REMAINS...AND EVEN THAT RESIDES OUTSIDE OF MY FORECAST AREA OVER
PARTS OF SONORA AND CHIHUAHUA MEXICO AND DRIFTING NORTH NORTHEAST.
WE DID HAVE ISOLATED STORM DEVELOP EARLIER THIS AFTERNOON...MOSTLY
OVER THE MOUNTAINS...BUT THAT HAS LONG SINCE DISSIPATED. THAT
SAID...WILL REDUCE THE POP FORECAST FOR THE REMAINDER OF TONIGHT.
WILL LEAVE SLIGHT CHANCES ALONG THE ARIZONA/NEW MEXICO BORDER IN
CASE OUTFLOWS TO OUR SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST HELP TRIGGER SOME
DEVELOPMENT OVERNIGHT...OTHERWISE DRY.

AS OF 04Z (9 PM MST)...TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE REGION RANGED FROM
THE MID 70S TO THE UPPER 80S...WITH THE TUCSON INTL AIRPORT
REPORTING A TEMP OF 89 DEGS...AFTER AN AFTERNOON HIGH OF 95
DEGS...WHICH WAS 3 DEGS BELOW NORMAL FOR THIS DATE. WILL MAKE SOME
MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO THE HOURLY TEMPERATURE GRIDS IN THE SHORT TERM
TO BETTER REFLECT THE MOST RECENT TEMP TRENDS.

FOR DETAILS REGARDING THE FORECAST BEYOND TONIGHT...PLEASE REFER TO
THE PREVIOUS DISCUSSION BELOW.

&&

.AVIATION...VALID THRU 30/00Z.
WHAT LITTLE THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WE HAD EARLIER THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING HAS DISSIPATED. FEW-SCT CLOUDS AT 9-12K FT WITH SCT 20K FT
CIRRUS CLOUDS THROUGH AROUND 06Z...THEN MOSTLY SKC. CLOUDS PERHAPS
LINGERING WITH A STRAY -SHRA/-TSRA NEAR KDUG DEVELOPING LATE
TONIGHT. A SIMILAR DAY ON TUESDAY WITH ONLY ISOLATED -TSRA
DEVELOPMENT DURING THE AFTERNOON...MAINLY OVER THE MOUNTAINS.
AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR TAF AMENDMENTS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...DRIER CONDITIONS WILL PROVIDE DECREASED THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY FOR MUCH OF THE AREA TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...EXCEPT FOR
AREAS NEAR THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER AND NEW MEXICO BORDER AREAS.
THEREAFTER...SCATTERED MOSTLY AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS
WILL PREVAIL FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY AS DEEPER MOISTURE RETURNS TO THE
AREA. OTHERWISE...NORMAL DIURNAL WIND TRENDS WILL OCCUR WITH
OCCASIONAL GUSTS DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS DUE TO DAYTIME HEATING.

&&

.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...OVERALL RIDGE AXIS JUST EAST AND/OR NORTHEAST
OF THE AREA COMBINED WITH GULF SURGE A COUPLE OF DAYS AGO HAS SERVED
SOUTHEAST ARIZONA WELL OVER THE PAST 3 DAYS. DOWNTURN EXPECTED
STARTING AS SOON AS TUESDAY AS A SECONDARY HIGH CENTER CONSOLIDATES
NEARLY OVERHEAD TO A LITTLE SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST OF OUR AREAS. THIS
WILL TEND TO PUSH STORM ACTIVITY BACK TO BORDER AND MOUNTAIN AREAS
WHILE WE HEAT UP SEVERAL DEGREES (PERHAPS AGAIN CLIMBING TO A FEW
DEGREES SHY OF RECORD LEVELS). ONE CAVEAT TO THIS IS THE  MOISTURE
TRANSPORT TRENDS UP THE GULF ARE ONCE AGAIN INCREASING...ENHANCED
SOMEWHAT BY THAT NICE COMPLEX THAT PUSHED INTO THE MOUTH OF THE GULF
LAST NIGHT FROM WESTERN MEXICO AROUND 23N. WE SHOULD MANAGE TO AT
LEAST KEEP INTERNATIONAL BORDER AREAS ACTIVE OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS.

LATE IN THE WEEK THE SEGMENT OF THE RIDGE OVER OUR AREA SHOULD
WEAKEN AS WE SEE SOME WEAK TROUGHINESS TENDENCIES NEAR THE CENTRAL
AND NORTHERN COAST. THAT ALLOW A DEGREE OR TWO OF COOLING IN MID
LEVELS WHILE ALSO ALLOWING DEEPER MOISTURE IMPORT ONCE AGAIN. ECMWF
KEYS ON A NICE IMPULSE ROTATING IN FROM NORTHERN MEXICO FRIDAY
AFTERNOON FOR A STRONG UPTICK IN THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE THAT SHOULD
TAKE US INTO THE WEEKEND.

&&

.TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...YOUTUBE...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/TUCSON

CURRENT DISCUSSION...MOLLERE
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...MEYER/GLUECK







000
FXUS65 KPSR 290301
AFDPSR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PHOENIX AZ
805 PM MST MON JUL 28 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
DRIER AIR WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION TUESDAY THROUGH LATE WEEK...WITH
SIGNIFICANTLY REDUCED STORM CHANCES AND HOTTER TEMPERATURES. BETTER
STORM CHANCES WILL EVENTUALLY INCREASE AGAIN FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND
AS MOISTURE MOVES BACK INTO THE SOUTHWEST UNITED STATES.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
OTHER THAN AN ISOLATED SHRA/TS PERCOLATING OVER HIGHER TERRAIN OF
NORTHERN PINAL COUNTY...ACTIVITY IS VIRTUALLY ABSENT OVER THE
FORECAST AREA THIS EVENING. A LARGER CIRCULATION CENTER PROPAGATING
NORTH INTO SOUTHERN NEVADA HAS BROUGHT A COMBINATION OF DEEPER
SUBSIDENCE AND DRYING WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT INTO THE SOUTHWESTERN
QUARTER OF ARIZONA. 00Z KTWC AND KPSR SOUNDING DATA SHOWS BOUNDARY
LAYER MIXING RATIOS STILL LINGERING IN THE 9-11 G/KG RANGE WHILE
TOTAL COLUMN PWATS SIT BETWEEN 1.25 AND 1.50 INCHES. HOWEVER...A
NOTABLE SHIFT IN H7-H5 WINDS TO A WESTERLY DIRECTION AND
INTRODUCTION OF LESS FAVORABLE MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES PORTEND LITTLE
ADDITIONAL SUPPORT FOR CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY AND MOSTLY QUIET
CONDITIONS FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT. THEREFORE...HAVE
SIGNIFICANTLY REDUCED POPS THROUGH TUESDAY..WHILE ALSO MAKING SOME
MODIFICATIONS OF HOURLY TEMPERATURES BASED ON CURRENT TRENDS.

&&

.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
/225 PM MST MON JUL 28 2014/

TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...A DRAMATIC DECREASE THE AMOUNT OF
CONVECTION ACROSS THE AREA...WITH THE FOCUS FOR ANY PRECIPITATION IN
THE MOUNTAINS EAST OF PHOENIX THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. MEAN
BL MIXING RATIOS DROP TO AROUND 6 G/KG DURING THE MIDDLE PART OF THE
WEEK AND EVEN CLIMO POPS MAY END UP BEING TOO HIGH. WITH DRIER AIR
WORKING INTO THE AREA MID WEEK...TEMPS WILL LIKELY TAKE A RUN INTO
THE 105-109 RANGE ACROSS THE DESERTS. CONSEQUENTLY...THERE SHOULD BE
A SLIGHT DROP-OFF BY THE WEEKEND AS DEEPER MOISTURE MAKES ITS WAY
BACK INTO THE AREA. STILL ABOVE 100 BUT SOMEWHAT LOWER THAN THE MID
WEEK VALUES. MADE SLIGHT REDUCTIONS TO POPS ACROSS THE BOARD FROM
TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY BASED ON LATEST GUIDANCE WITH THE HIGHEST
VALUES DISPLACED WELL EAST OF THE DESERTS. THE MONSOON MOISTURE
WONT BE TERRIBLY FAR AWAY...WINDS PER THE TWO-THREE MOST RECENT
RUNS OF THE EUROPEAN AND GFS BRING INCREASED MIXING RATIOS BACK INTO
THE AREA FRIDAY AND ALMOST CERTAINLY BY THE WEEKEND. PRECIP CHANCES
ONCE AGAIN LOOK FAVORABLE FOR THE LATTER PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST
PERIOD ALTHOUGH ITS STILL DIFFICULT TO HIGHLIGHT ONE DAY VS ANOTHER
UNTIL WE GET A LITTLE CLOSER.



&&

.AVIATION...
SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA INCLUDING KPHX...KIWA...AND KSDL...
ALTHOUGH AN ISOLATED TS WILL STILL BE POSSIBLE THIS EVENING
SURROUNDING CNTRL ARIZONA...DIRECT IMPACTS ON TERMINALS ARE
UNLIKELY. NO OTHER STORMS WERE NOTED IN THE SRN OR ERN PARTS OF THE
STATE...AND LIGHT WESTERLY OR VARIABLE WINDS WILL LIKELY PREVAIL
LONGER INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS THAN PREVIOUS NIGHTS.
OTHERWISE...ONLY FEW/SCT MID/HIGH CLOUDS EXPECTED THROUGH
TUESDAY...WITH STORM CHANCES TUESDAY AFTERNOON FAR LOWER THAN RECENT
DAYS.

SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA AND SOUTHWEST ARIZONA INCLUDING KIPL AND KBLH...
NO AVIATION IMPACTS EXPECTED THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON WITH ONLY
OCCASIONAL MID/HIGH CLOUDS GENERALLY CLEARING THROUGH TUESDAY. STORM
CHANCES WILL BE ALMOST NIL BEYOND THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY.

AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDED TAFS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY...
DRIER THAN NORMAL CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THURSDAY. STORM
CHANCES WILL BE SLIGHT AND WILL BE LIMITED TO THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF
EASTERN ARIZONA. LATE IN THE WEEK AND OVER THE WEEKEND...AN
INCREASE IN MOISTURE AND ASSOCIATED HUMIDITIES IS ANTICIPATED AND
STORM CHANCES...THOUGH SLIGHT...EXPAND TO THE LOWER ELEVATIONS. HIGH
TEMPERATURES TREND DOWNWARD AS WELL.

&&

.PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

AZ...NONE.

CA...NONE.

&&

$$

VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/PHOENIX

DISCUSSION...MO/MEYERS/LEINS
AVIATION...MO
FIRE WEATHER...HIRSCH/AJ






000
FXUS65 KPSR 290301
AFDPSR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PHOENIX AZ
805 PM MST MON JUL 28 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
DRIER AIR WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION TUESDAY THROUGH LATE WEEK...WITH
SIGNIFICANTLY REDUCED STORM CHANCES AND HOTTER TEMPERATURES. BETTER
STORM CHANCES WILL EVENTUALLY INCREASE AGAIN FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND
AS MOISTURE MOVES BACK INTO THE SOUTHWEST UNITED STATES.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
OTHER THAN AN ISOLATED SHRA/TS PERCOLATING OVER HIGHER TERRAIN OF
NORTHERN PINAL COUNTY...ACTIVITY IS VIRTUALLY ABSENT OVER THE
FORECAST AREA THIS EVENING. A LARGER CIRCULATION CENTER PROPAGATING
NORTH INTO SOUTHERN NEVADA HAS BROUGHT A COMBINATION OF DEEPER
SUBSIDENCE AND DRYING WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT INTO THE SOUTHWESTERN
QUARTER OF ARIZONA. 00Z KTWC AND KPSR SOUNDING DATA SHOWS BOUNDARY
LAYER MIXING RATIOS STILL LINGERING IN THE 9-11 G/KG RANGE WHILE
TOTAL COLUMN PWATS SIT BETWEEN 1.25 AND 1.50 INCHES. HOWEVER...A
NOTABLE SHIFT IN H7-H5 WINDS TO A WESTERLY DIRECTION AND
INTRODUCTION OF LESS FAVORABLE MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES PORTEND LITTLE
ADDITIONAL SUPPORT FOR CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY AND MOSTLY QUIET
CONDITIONS FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT. THEREFORE...HAVE
SIGNIFICANTLY REDUCED POPS THROUGH TUESDAY..WHILE ALSO MAKING SOME
MODIFICATIONS OF HOURLY TEMPERATURES BASED ON CURRENT TRENDS.

&&

.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
/225 PM MST MON JUL 28 2014/

TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...A DRAMATIC DECREASE THE AMOUNT OF
CONVECTION ACROSS THE AREA...WITH THE FOCUS FOR ANY PRECIPITATION IN
THE MOUNTAINS EAST OF PHOENIX THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. MEAN
BL MIXING RATIOS DROP TO AROUND 6 G/KG DURING THE MIDDLE PART OF THE
WEEK AND EVEN CLIMO POPS MAY END UP BEING TOO HIGH. WITH DRIER AIR
WORKING INTO THE AREA MID WEEK...TEMPS WILL LIKELY TAKE A RUN INTO
THE 105-109 RANGE ACROSS THE DESERTS. CONSEQUENTLY...THERE SHOULD BE
A SLIGHT DROP-OFF BY THE WEEKEND AS DEEPER MOISTURE MAKES ITS WAY
BACK INTO THE AREA. STILL ABOVE 100 BUT SOMEWHAT LOWER THAN THE MID
WEEK VALUES. MADE SLIGHT REDUCTIONS TO POPS ACROSS THE BOARD FROM
TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY BASED ON LATEST GUIDANCE WITH THE HIGHEST
VALUES DISPLACED WELL EAST OF THE DESERTS. THE MONSOON MOISTURE
WONT BE TERRIBLY FAR AWAY...WINDS PER THE TWO-THREE MOST RECENT
RUNS OF THE EUROPEAN AND GFS BRING INCREASED MIXING RATIOS BACK INTO
THE AREA FRIDAY AND ALMOST CERTAINLY BY THE WEEKEND. PRECIP CHANCES
ONCE AGAIN LOOK FAVORABLE FOR THE LATTER PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST
PERIOD ALTHOUGH ITS STILL DIFFICULT TO HIGHLIGHT ONE DAY VS ANOTHER
UNTIL WE GET A LITTLE CLOSER.



&&

.AVIATION...
SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA INCLUDING KPHX...KIWA...AND KSDL...
ALTHOUGH AN ISOLATED TS WILL STILL BE POSSIBLE THIS EVENING
SURROUNDING CNTRL ARIZONA...DIRECT IMPACTS ON TERMINALS ARE
UNLIKELY. NO OTHER STORMS WERE NOTED IN THE SRN OR ERN PARTS OF THE
STATE...AND LIGHT WESTERLY OR VARIABLE WINDS WILL LIKELY PREVAIL
LONGER INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS THAN PREVIOUS NIGHTS.
OTHERWISE...ONLY FEW/SCT MID/HIGH CLOUDS EXPECTED THROUGH
TUESDAY...WITH STORM CHANCES TUESDAY AFTERNOON FAR LOWER THAN RECENT
DAYS.

SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA AND SOUTHWEST ARIZONA INCLUDING KIPL AND KBLH...
NO AVIATION IMPACTS EXPECTED THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON WITH ONLY
OCCASIONAL MID/HIGH CLOUDS GENERALLY CLEARING THROUGH TUESDAY. STORM
CHANCES WILL BE ALMOST NIL BEYOND THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY.

AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDED TAFS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY...
DRIER THAN NORMAL CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THURSDAY. STORM
CHANCES WILL BE SLIGHT AND WILL BE LIMITED TO THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF
EASTERN ARIZONA. LATE IN THE WEEK AND OVER THE WEEKEND...AN
INCREASE IN MOISTURE AND ASSOCIATED HUMIDITIES IS ANTICIPATED AND
STORM CHANCES...THOUGH SLIGHT...EXPAND TO THE LOWER ELEVATIONS. HIGH
TEMPERATURES TREND DOWNWARD AS WELL.

&&

.PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

AZ...NONE.

CA...NONE.

&&

$$

VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/PHOENIX

DISCUSSION...MO/MEYERS/LEINS
AVIATION...MO
FIRE WEATHER...HIRSCH/AJ







000
FXUS65 KFGZ 282247
AFDFGZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ
347 PM MST MON JUL 28 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
FROM TUESDAY THROUGH THE END OF THE WORK WEEK...EXPECT DECREASING
SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY AS A DRY WESTERLY FLOW SETS UP
ACROSS NORTHERN ARIZONA. ON SATURDAY...A MOIST SOUTHERLY FLOW MAY
DEVELOP LEADING TO BETTER CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
GOOD HEATING AND A PASSING UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE RESULTED IN THE
MOST SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY ACROSS PORTIONS OF YAVAPAI
AND WESTERN COCONINO COUNTIES TODAY. EXPECT SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TO DIMINISH OVERNIGHT AS TEMPERATURES COOL.

TUESDAY TO FRIDAY...WESTERLY FLOW WILL REDUCE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
LEADING TO DECREASING SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY...WITH
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY LIKELY THE LEAST ACTIVE DAYS. IN
ADDITION...TEMPERATURES WILL ALSO BE ON THE INCREASE...WITH
DAYTIME HIGH TEMPERATURES RUNNING NEAR TO A FEW DEGREES ABOVE
NORMAL.

SATURDAY ONWARD...LONG TERM MODELS INDICATE A MOIST SOUTHERLY
FLOW MAY SET UP LEADING TO AN INCREASE IN SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY.

&&

.AVIATION...
FOR THE 18Z PACKAGE...SCT-NMRS SHRA/TSRA WITH ISOLD
+TSRA WILL DIMINISH OVERNIGHT. MVFR VSBY AND WIND GUSTS UP TO
35KTS PSBL IN THE STRONGER STORMS. AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED
FOR AMENDMENTS.

&&

.FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 9 PM MST THIS EVENING FOR AZZ004>008-
015-038.

&&

$$

PUBLIC.........RR
AVIATION.......DB

FOR NORTHERN ARIZONA WEATHER INFORMATION VISIT
WEATHER.GOV/FLAGSTAFF






000
FXUS65 KFGZ 282247
AFDFGZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ
347 PM MST MON JUL 28 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
FROM TUESDAY THROUGH THE END OF THE WORK WEEK...EXPECT DECREASING
SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY AS A DRY WESTERLY FLOW SETS UP
ACROSS NORTHERN ARIZONA. ON SATURDAY...A MOIST SOUTHERLY FLOW MAY
DEVELOP LEADING TO BETTER CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
GOOD HEATING AND A PASSING UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE RESULTED IN THE
MOST SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY ACROSS PORTIONS OF YAVAPAI
AND WESTERN COCONINO COUNTIES TODAY. EXPECT SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TO DIMINISH OVERNIGHT AS TEMPERATURES COOL.

TUESDAY TO FRIDAY...WESTERLY FLOW WILL REDUCE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
LEADING TO DECREASING SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY...WITH
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY LIKELY THE LEAST ACTIVE DAYS. IN
ADDITION...TEMPERATURES WILL ALSO BE ON THE INCREASE...WITH
DAYTIME HIGH TEMPERATURES RUNNING NEAR TO A FEW DEGREES ABOVE
NORMAL.

SATURDAY ONWARD...LONG TERM MODELS INDICATE A MOIST SOUTHERLY
FLOW MAY SET UP LEADING TO AN INCREASE IN SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY.

&&

.AVIATION...
FOR THE 18Z PACKAGE...SCT-NMRS SHRA/TSRA WITH ISOLD
+TSRA WILL DIMINISH OVERNIGHT. MVFR VSBY AND WIND GUSTS UP TO
35KTS PSBL IN THE STRONGER STORMS. AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED
FOR AMENDMENTS.

&&

.FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 9 PM MST THIS EVENING FOR AZZ004>008-
015-038.

&&

$$

PUBLIC.........RR
AVIATION.......DB

FOR NORTHERN ARIZONA WEATHER INFORMATION VISIT
WEATHER.GOV/FLAGSTAFF





000
FXUS65 KPSR 282125
AFDPSR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PHOENIX AZ
225 PM MST MON JUL 28 2014

.UPDATE...UPDATED AVIATION AND FIRE WEATHER DISCUSSIONS.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
THERE WILL BE A CONTINUED CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS
THE FORECAST AREA THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...BEFORE DRIER AIR
MOVES INTO THE REGION TUESDAY THROUGH LATE WEEK. STORM CHANCES WILL
INCREASE AGAIN FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND AS MOISTURE MOVES BACK INTO
THE SOUTHWEST UNITED STATES.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
A GOOD DEAL OF THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY HAS POPPED UP ACROSS NORTHERN
ARIZONA THIS AFTERNOON DUE TO A BROAD UPPER LEVEL CIRCULATION MOVING
NORTHWARD ACROSS SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA. VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY ALSO
SHOWING PATCHES OF CUMULUS DEVELOPMENT ACROSS OUR CWA FROM WESTERN
MARICOPA COUNTY/GILA BEND AREA...WESTWARD ACROSS SE CALIFORNIA INTO
JOSHUA TREE NP. CONVECTION HAS BEEN SLOW TO INITIATE ACROSS OUR CWA
THIS AFTERNOON GIVEN THE LIGHTER WINDS ALOFT AND THE MORE SUBSIDENT
NATURE TO THE ATMOSPHERE. STILL...GIVEN THE AMOUNT OF PRECIPITABLE
WATER IN THE ATMOSPHERIC PROFILE...AND GOOD SURFACE HEATING...WE
WILL CONTINUE TO MAINTAIN SLIGHT CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION FOR SOME
AREAS OF OUR CWA INTO THE EVENING HOURS. THE BEST CHANCES...ALBEIT
SLIGHT WILL STILL BE ACROSS SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA. PRECIPITATION
CHANCES QUICKLY DWINDLE THIS EVENING FOR SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA...AS
ALL MODELS AGREE THAT UPPER LEVEL FLOW WILL BECOME WESTERLY AND
DRIER LATER TONIGHT.

TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...A DRAMATIC DECREASE THE AMOUNT OF
CONVECTION ACROSS THE AREA...WITH THE FOCUS FOR ANY PRECIPITATION IN
THE MOUNTAINS EAST OF PHOENIX THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. MEAN
BL MIXING RATIOS DROP TO AROUND 6 G/KG DURING THE MIDDLE PART OF THE
WEEK AND EVEN CLIMO POPS MAY END UP BEING TOO HIGH. WITH DRIER AIR
WORKING INTO THE AREA MID WEEK...TEMPS WILL LIKELY TAKE A RUN INTO
THE 105-109 RANGE ACROSS THE DESERTS. CONSEQUENTLY...THERE SHOULD BE
A SLIGHT DROP-OFF BY THE WEEKEND AS DEEPER MOISTURE MAKES ITS WAY
BACK INTO THE AREA. STILL ABOVE 100 BUT SOMEWHAT LOWER THAN THE MID
WEEK VALUES. MADE SLIGHT REDUCTIONS TO POPS ACROSS THE BOARD FROM
TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY BASED ON LATEST GUIDANCE WITH THE HIGHEST
VALUES DISPLACED WELL EAST OF THE DESERTS. THE MONSOON MOISTURE
WONT BE TERRIBLY FAR AWAY...WINDS PER THE TWO-THREE MOST RECENT
RUNS OF THE EUROPEAN AND GFS BRING INCREASED MIXING RATIOS BACK INTO
THE AREA FRIDAY AND ALMOST CERTAINLY BY THE WEEKEND. PRECIP CHANCES
ONCE AGAIN LOOK FAVORABLE FOR THE LATTER PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST
PERIOD ALTHOUGH ITS STILL DIFFICULT TO HIGHLIGHT ONE DAY VS ANOTHER
UNTIL WE GET A LITTLE CLOSER.



&&

.AVIATION...
SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA INCLUDING KPHX...KIWA...AND KSDL...
MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL
BE LIMITED THIS EVENING...MAINLY FOCUSED ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN
OUTSIDE OF THE PHOENIX AREA. HOWEVER...AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY FROM
DISTANT CONVECTION WILL LIKELY RESULT IN A SHIFT TO EASTERLY WINDS
LATER THIS EVENING.

SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA AND SOUTHWEST ARIZONA INCLUDING KIPL AND KBLH...
THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF A THUNDERSTORM AT KIPL LATE THIS
AFTERNOON AS ISOLATED CONVECTION ALONG THE BAJA SPINE PROPAGATES
INTO SOUTHEASTERN CA. OTHERWISE...NO AVIATION IMPACTS EXPECTED WITH
WINDS GENERALLY REMAINING LIGHT AND DIURNAL AT KIPL AND KBLH.

AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDED TAFS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY...
DRIER THAN NORMAL CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THURSDAY. STORM
CHANCES WILL BE SLIGHT AND WILL BE LIMITED TO THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF
EASTERN ARIZONA. LATE IN THE WEEK AND OVER THE WEEKEND...AN
INCREASE IN MOISTURE AND ASSOCIATED HUMIDITIES IS ANTICIPATED AND
STORM CHANCES...THOUGH SLIGHT...EXPAND TO THE LOWER ELEVATIONS. HIGH
TEMPERATURES TREND DOWNWARD AS WELL.

&&

.PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

AZ...NONE.

CA...NONE.

&&

$$

VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/PHOENIX

DISCUSSION...MEYERS/LEINS
AVIATION...HIRSCH
FIRE WEATHER...HIRSCH/AJ









000
FXUS65 KPSR 282125
AFDPSR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PHOENIX AZ
225 PM MST MON JUL 28 2014

.UPDATE...UPDATED AVIATION AND FIRE WEATHER DISCUSSIONS.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
THERE WILL BE A CONTINUED CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS
THE FORECAST AREA THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...BEFORE DRIER AIR
MOVES INTO THE REGION TUESDAY THROUGH LATE WEEK. STORM CHANCES WILL
INCREASE AGAIN FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND AS MOISTURE MOVES BACK INTO
THE SOUTHWEST UNITED STATES.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
A GOOD DEAL OF THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY HAS POPPED UP ACROSS NORTHERN
ARIZONA THIS AFTERNOON DUE TO A BROAD UPPER LEVEL CIRCULATION MOVING
NORTHWARD ACROSS SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA. VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY ALSO
SHOWING PATCHES OF CUMULUS DEVELOPMENT ACROSS OUR CWA FROM WESTERN
MARICOPA COUNTY/GILA BEND AREA...WESTWARD ACROSS SE CALIFORNIA INTO
JOSHUA TREE NP. CONVECTION HAS BEEN SLOW TO INITIATE ACROSS OUR CWA
THIS AFTERNOON GIVEN THE LIGHTER WINDS ALOFT AND THE MORE SUBSIDENT
NATURE TO THE ATMOSPHERE. STILL...GIVEN THE AMOUNT OF PRECIPITABLE
WATER IN THE ATMOSPHERIC PROFILE...AND GOOD SURFACE HEATING...WE
WILL CONTINUE TO MAINTAIN SLIGHT CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION FOR SOME
AREAS OF OUR CWA INTO THE EVENING HOURS. THE BEST CHANCES...ALBEIT
SLIGHT WILL STILL BE ACROSS SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA. PRECIPITATION
CHANCES QUICKLY DWINDLE THIS EVENING FOR SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA...AS
ALL MODELS AGREE THAT UPPER LEVEL FLOW WILL BECOME WESTERLY AND
DRIER LATER TONIGHT.

TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...A DRAMATIC DECREASE THE AMOUNT OF
CONVECTION ACROSS THE AREA...WITH THE FOCUS FOR ANY PRECIPITATION IN
THE MOUNTAINS EAST OF PHOENIX THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. MEAN
BL MIXING RATIOS DROP TO AROUND 6 G/KG DURING THE MIDDLE PART OF THE
WEEK AND EVEN CLIMO POPS MAY END UP BEING TOO HIGH. WITH DRIER AIR
WORKING INTO THE AREA MID WEEK...TEMPS WILL LIKELY TAKE A RUN INTO
THE 105-109 RANGE ACROSS THE DESERTS. CONSEQUENTLY...THERE SHOULD BE
A SLIGHT DROP-OFF BY THE WEEKEND AS DEEPER MOISTURE MAKES ITS WAY
BACK INTO THE AREA. STILL ABOVE 100 BUT SOMEWHAT LOWER THAN THE MID
WEEK VALUES. MADE SLIGHT REDUCTIONS TO POPS ACROSS THE BOARD FROM
TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY BASED ON LATEST GUIDANCE WITH THE HIGHEST
VALUES DISPLACED WELL EAST OF THE DESERTS. THE MONSOON MOISTURE
WONT BE TERRIBLY FAR AWAY...WINDS PER THE TWO-THREE MOST RECENT
RUNS OF THE EUROPEAN AND GFS BRING INCREASED MIXING RATIOS BACK INTO
THE AREA FRIDAY AND ALMOST CERTAINLY BY THE WEEKEND. PRECIP CHANCES
ONCE AGAIN LOOK FAVORABLE FOR THE LATTER PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST
PERIOD ALTHOUGH ITS STILL DIFFICULT TO HIGHLIGHT ONE DAY VS ANOTHER
UNTIL WE GET A LITTLE CLOSER.



&&

.AVIATION...
SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA INCLUDING KPHX...KIWA...AND KSDL...
MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL
BE LIMITED THIS EVENING...MAINLY FOCUSED ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN
OUTSIDE OF THE PHOENIX AREA. HOWEVER...AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY FROM
DISTANT CONVECTION WILL LIKELY RESULT IN A SHIFT TO EASTERLY WINDS
LATER THIS EVENING.

SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA AND SOUTHWEST ARIZONA INCLUDING KIPL AND KBLH...
THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF A THUNDERSTORM AT KIPL LATE THIS
AFTERNOON AS ISOLATED CONVECTION ALONG THE BAJA SPINE PROPAGATES
INTO SOUTHEASTERN CA. OTHERWISE...NO AVIATION IMPACTS EXPECTED WITH
WINDS GENERALLY REMAINING LIGHT AND DIURNAL AT KIPL AND KBLH.

AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDED TAFS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY...
DRIER THAN NORMAL CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THURSDAY. STORM
CHANCES WILL BE SLIGHT AND WILL BE LIMITED TO THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF
EASTERN ARIZONA. LATE IN THE WEEK AND OVER THE WEEKEND...AN
INCREASE IN MOISTURE AND ASSOCIATED HUMIDITIES IS ANTICIPATED AND
STORM CHANCES...THOUGH SLIGHT...EXPAND TO THE LOWER ELEVATIONS. HIGH
TEMPERATURES TREND DOWNWARD AS WELL.

&&

.PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

AZ...NONE.

CA...NONE.

&&

$$

VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/PHOENIX

DISCUSSION...MEYERS/LEINS
AVIATION...HIRSCH
FIRE WEATHER...HIRSCH/AJ








000
FXUS65 KPSR 282124
AFDPSR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PHOENIX AZ
120 PM MST MON JUL 28 2014

.UPDATE...UPDATED AVIATION AND FIRE WEATHER DISCUSSIONS.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
THERE WILL BE A CONTINUED CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS
THE FORECAST AREA THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...BEFORE DRIER AIR
MOVES INTO THE REGION TUESDAY THROUGH LATE WEEK. STORM CHANCES WILL
INCREASE AGAIN FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND AS MOISTURE MOVES BACK INTO
THE SOUTHWEST UNITED STATES.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
A GOOD DEAL OF THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY HAS POPPED UP ACROSS NORTHERN
ARIZONA THIS AFTERNOON DUE TO A BROAD UPPER LEVEL CIRCULATION MOVING
NORTHWARD ACROSS SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA. VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY ALSO
SHOWING PATCHES OF CUMULUS DEVELOPMENT ACROSS OUR CWA FROM WESTERN
MARICOPA COUNTY/GILA BEND AREA...WESTWARD ACROSS SE CALIFORNIA INTO
JOSHUA TREE NP. CONVECTION HAS BEEN SLOW TO INITIATE ACROSS OUR CWA
THIS AFTERNOON GIVEN THE LIGHTER WINDS ALOFT AND THE MORE SUBSIDENT
NATURE TO THE ATMOSPHERE. STILL...GIVEN THE AMOUNT OF PRECIPITABLE
WATER IN THE ATMOSPHERIC PROFILE...AND GOOD SURFACE HEATING...WE
WILL CONTINUE TO MAINTAIN SLIGHT CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION FOR SOME
AREAS OF OUR CWA INTO THE EVENING HOURS. THE BEST CHANCES...ALBEIT
SLIGHT WILL STILL BE ACROSS SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA. PRECIPITATION
CHANCES QUICKLY DWINDLE THIS EVENING FOR SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA...AS
ALL MODELS AGREE THAT UPPER LEVEL FLOW WILL BECOME WESTERLY AND
DRIER LATER TONIGHT.

TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...A DRAMATIC DECREASE THE AMOUNT OF
CONVECTION ACROSS THE AREA...WITH THE FOCUS FOR ANY PRECIPITATION IN
THE MOUNTAINS EAST OF PHOENIX THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. MEAN
BL MIXING RATIOS DROP TO AROUND 6 G/KG DURING THE MIDDLE PART OF THE
WEEK AND EVEN CLIMO POPS MAY END UP BEING TOO HIGH. WITH DRIER AIR
WORKING INTO THE AREA MID WEEK...TEMPS WILL LIKELY TAKE A RUN INTO
THE 105-109 RANGE ACROSS THE DESERTS. CONSEQUENTLY...THERE SHOULD BE
A SLIGHT DROP-OFF BY THE WEEKEND AS DEEPER MOISTURE MAKES ITS WAY
BACK INTO THE AREA. STILL ABOVE 100 BUT SOMEWHAT LOWER THAN THE MID
WEEK VALUES. MADE SLIGHT REDUCTIONS TO POPS ACROSS THE BOARD FROM
TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY BASED ON LATEST GUIDANCE WITH THE HIGHEST
VALUES DISPLACED WELL EAST OF THE DESERTS. THE MONSOON MOISTURE
WONT BE TERRIBLY FAR AWAY...WINDS PER THE TWO-THREE MOST RECENT
RUNS OF THE EUROPEAN AND GFS BRING INCREASED MIXING RATIOS BACK INTO
THE AREA FRIDAY AND ALMOST CERTAINLY BY THE WEEKEND. PRECIP CHANCES
ONCE AGAIN LOOK FAVORABLE FOR THE LATTER PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST
PERIOD ALTHOUGH ITS STILL DIFFICULT TO HIGHLIGHT ONE DAY VS ANOTHER
UNTIL WE GET A LITTLE CLOSER.



&&

.AVIATION...
SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA INCLUDING KPHX...KIWA...AND KSDL...
MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL
BE LIMITED THIS EVENING...MAINLY FOCUSED ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN
OUTSIDE OF THE PHOENIX AREA. HOWEVER...AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY FROM
DISTANT CONVECTION WILL LIKELY RESULT IN A SHIFT TO EASTERLY WINDS
LATER THIS EVENING.

SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA AND SOUTHWEST ARIZONA INCLUDING KIPL AND KBLH...
THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF A THUNDERSTORM AT KIPL LATE THIS
AFTERNOON AS ISOLATED CONVECTION ALONG THE BAJA SPINE PROPAGATES
INTO SOUTHEASTERN CA. OTHERWISE...NO AVIATION IMPACTS EXPECTED WITH
WINDS GENERALLY REMAINING LIGHT AND DIURNAL AT KIPL AND KBLH.

AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDED TAFS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY...
DRIER THAN NORMAL CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THURSDAY. STORM
CHANCES WILL BE SLIGHT AND WILL BE LIMITED TO THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF
EASTERN ARIZONA. LATE IN THE WEEK AND OVER THE WEEKEND...AN
INCREASE IN MOISTURE AND ASSOCIATED HUMIDITIES IS ANTICIPATED AND
STORM CHANCES...THOUGH SLIGHT...EXPAND TO THE LOWER ELEVATIONS. HIGH
TEMPERATURES TREND DOWNWARD AS WELL.

&&

.PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

AZ...NONE.

CA...NONE.

&&

$$

VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/PHOENIX

DISCUSSION...MEYERS/LEINS
AVIATION...HIRSCH
FIRE WEATHER...HIRSCH/AJ





000
FXUS65 KPSR 282124
AFDPSR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PHOENIX AZ
120 PM MST MON JUL 28 2014

.UPDATE...UPDATED AVIATION AND FIRE WEATHER DISCUSSIONS.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
THERE WILL BE A CONTINUED CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS
THE FORECAST AREA THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...BEFORE DRIER AIR
MOVES INTO THE REGION TUESDAY THROUGH LATE WEEK. STORM CHANCES WILL
INCREASE AGAIN FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND AS MOISTURE MOVES BACK INTO
THE SOUTHWEST UNITED STATES.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
A GOOD DEAL OF THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY HAS POPPED UP ACROSS NORTHERN
ARIZONA THIS AFTERNOON DUE TO A BROAD UPPER LEVEL CIRCULATION MOVING
NORTHWARD ACROSS SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA. VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY ALSO
SHOWING PATCHES OF CUMULUS DEVELOPMENT ACROSS OUR CWA FROM WESTERN
MARICOPA COUNTY/GILA BEND AREA...WESTWARD ACROSS SE CALIFORNIA INTO
JOSHUA TREE NP. CONVECTION HAS BEEN SLOW TO INITIATE ACROSS OUR CWA
THIS AFTERNOON GIVEN THE LIGHTER WINDS ALOFT AND THE MORE SUBSIDENT
NATURE TO THE ATMOSPHERE. STILL...GIVEN THE AMOUNT OF PRECIPITABLE
WATER IN THE ATMOSPHERIC PROFILE...AND GOOD SURFACE HEATING...WE
WILL CONTINUE TO MAINTAIN SLIGHT CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION FOR SOME
AREAS OF OUR CWA INTO THE EVENING HOURS. THE BEST CHANCES...ALBEIT
SLIGHT WILL STILL BE ACROSS SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA. PRECIPITATION
CHANCES QUICKLY DWINDLE THIS EVENING FOR SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA...AS
ALL MODELS AGREE THAT UPPER LEVEL FLOW WILL BECOME WESTERLY AND
DRIER LATER TONIGHT.

TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...A DRAMATIC DECREASE THE AMOUNT OF
CONVECTION ACROSS THE AREA...WITH THE FOCUS FOR ANY PRECIPITATION IN
THE MOUNTAINS EAST OF PHOENIX THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. MEAN
BL MIXING RATIOS DROP TO AROUND 6 G/KG DURING THE MIDDLE PART OF THE
WEEK AND EVEN CLIMO POPS MAY END UP BEING TOO HIGH. WITH DRIER AIR
WORKING INTO THE AREA MID WEEK...TEMPS WILL LIKELY TAKE A RUN INTO
THE 105-109 RANGE ACROSS THE DESERTS. CONSEQUENTLY...THERE SHOULD BE
A SLIGHT DROP-OFF BY THE WEEKEND AS DEEPER MOISTURE MAKES ITS WAY
BACK INTO THE AREA. STILL ABOVE 100 BUT SOMEWHAT LOWER THAN THE MID
WEEK VALUES. MADE SLIGHT REDUCTIONS TO POPS ACROSS THE BOARD FROM
TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY BASED ON LATEST GUIDANCE WITH THE HIGHEST
VALUES DISPLACED WELL EAST OF THE DESERTS. THE MONSOON MOISTURE
WONT BE TERRIBLY FAR AWAY...WINDS PER THE TWO-THREE MOST RECENT
RUNS OF THE EUROPEAN AND GFS BRING INCREASED MIXING RATIOS BACK INTO
THE AREA FRIDAY AND ALMOST CERTAINLY BY THE WEEKEND. PRECIP CHANCES
ONCE AGAIN LOOK FAVORABLE FOR THE LATTER PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST
PERIOD ALTHOUGH ITS STILL DIFFICULT TO HIGHLIGHT ONE DAY VS ANOTHER
UNTIL WE GET A LITTLE CLOSER.



&&

.AVIATION...
SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA INCLUDING KPHX...KIWA...AND KSDL...
MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL
BE LIMITED THIS EVENING...MAINLY FOCUSED ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN
OUTSIDE OF THE PHOENIX AREA. HOWEVER...AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY FROM
DISTANT CONVECTION WILL LIKELY RESULT IN A SHIFT TO EASTERLY WINDS
LATER THIS EVENING.

SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA AND SOUTHWEST ARIZONA INCLUDING KIPL AND KBLH...
THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF A THUNDERSTORM AT KIPL LATE THIS
AFTERNOON AS ISOLATED CONVECTION ALONG THE BAJA SPINE PROPAGATES
INTO SOUTHEASTERN CA. OTHERWISE...NO AVIATION IMPACTS EXPECTED WITH
WINDS GENERALLY REMAINING LIGHT AND DIURNAL AT KIPL AND KBLH.

AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDED TAFS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY...
DRIER THAN NORMAL CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THURSDAY. STORM
CHANCES WILL BE SLIGHT AND WILL BE LIMITED TO THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF
EASTERN ARIZONA. LATE IN THE WEEK AND OVER THE WEEKEND...AN
INCREASE IN MOISTURE AND ASSOCIATED HUMIDITIES IS ANTICIPATED AND
STORM CHANCES...THOUGH SLIGHT...EXPAND TO THE LOWER ELEVATIONS. HIGH
TEMPERATURES TREND DOWNWARD AS WELL.

&&

.PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

AZ...NONE.

CA...NONE.

&&

$$

VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/PHOENIX

DISCUSSION...MEYERS/LEINS
AVIATION...HIRSCH
FIRE WEATHER...HIRSCH/AJ






000
FXUS65 KTWC 282123
AFDTWC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ
220 PM MST MON JUL 28 2014

.SYNOPSIS...WE STILL HAVE GOOD MOISTURE IN PLACE FOR A CHANCE OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. SOME STORMS
WILL GENERATE LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL. FEWER STORMS ARE EXPECTED
AROUND MID WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVERHEAD ACCOMPANIED BY
SEVERAL DEGREES OF HEATING BY TUESDAY OR WEDNESDAY. A STRONGER
CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS RETURNS ONCE AGAIN TO END THE WEEK AND TAKE
US INTO NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.DISCUSSION...SLOW DEVELOPMENT IN NORTHERN PARTS OF OUR AREA BEHIND
EXITING MCV FROM LAST NIGHT. ELSEWHERE WE HAVE GREAT MOISTURE BUT
MEAGER FLOW. WIND PROFILE NOT OPTIMAL FOR GOOD STORM STRUCTURE. SLOW
MOVING STORMS THAT INITIALLY ARE CHOKING BEFORE REACHING MID CYCLE.
WE SHOULD MANAGE BETTER COVERAGE LATER IN THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY
EVENING...BUT STORMS WILL TEND TO STRUGGLE AWAY FROM TERRAIN
ENHANCEMENT. WEAK UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE ON THE EASTERN FLANK OF A
FEATURE PUSHING NORTH THROUGH FAR SOUTHWEST ARIZONA AND SOUTHERN
CALIFORNIA COULD ENHANCE SOME OF THE STORM ACTIVITY JUST WEST OF
TUCSON. ANOTHER IMPULSE IN FAR NORTHERN SONORA WILL PROBABLY ENHANCE
SOME OF THE STORMS IN COCHISE COUNTY THIS AFTERNOON. THAT ONE WILL
ALSO TEND TO KEEP STORMS GOING INTO THE EARLY MORNING HOURS EAST OF
TUCSON. WET STORMS WITH LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING THE MAIN STORY.

OVERALL RIDGE AXIS JUST EAST AND/OR NORTHEAST OF THE AREA COMBINED
WITH GULF SURGE A COUPLE OF DAYS AGO HAS SERVED SOUTHEAST ARIZONA
WELL OVER THE PAST 3 DAYS. DOWNTURN EXPECTED STARTING AS SOON AS
TUESDAY AS A SECONDARY HIGH CENTER CONSOLIDATES NEARLY OVERHEAD TO A
LITTLE SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST OF OUR AREAS. THIS WILL TEND TO PUSH
STORM ACTIVITY BACK TO BORDER AND MOUNTAIN AREAS WHILE WE HEAT UP
SEVERAL DEGREES (PERHAPS AGAIN CLIMBING TO A FEW DEGREES SHY OF
RECORD LEVELS). ONE CAVEAT TO THIS IS THE  MOISTURE TRANSPORT TRENDS
UP THE GULF ARE ONCE AGAIN INCREASING...ENHANCED SOMEWHAT BY THAT
NICE COMPLEX THAT PUSHED INTO THE MOUTH OF THE GULF LAST NIGHT FROM
WESTERN MEXICO AROUND 23N. WE SHOULD MANAGE TO AT LEAST KEEP
INTERNATIONAL BORDER AREAS ACTIVE OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS.

LATE IN THE WEEK THE SEGMENT OF THE RIDGE OVER OUR AREA SHOULD
WEAKEN AS WE SEE SOME WEAK TROUGHINESS TENDENCIES NEAR THE CENTRAL
AND NORTHERN COAST. THAT ALLOW A DEGREE OR TWO OF COOLING IN MID
LEVELS WHILE ALSO ALLOWING DEEPER MOISTURE IMPORT ONCE AGAIN. ECMWF
KEYS ON A NICE IMPULSE ROTATING IN FROM NORTHERN MEXICO FRIDAY
AFTERNOON FOR A STRONG UPTICK IN THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE THAT SHOULD
TAKE US INTO THE WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION...VALID THRU 29/21Z.
SCATTERED TSRA/SHRA THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING. MVFR
CONDITIONS WILL OCCUR WITH THE STRONGER TSRA ALONG WITH WIND GUSTS
TO AROUND 45 KTS. CLOUD DECKS WILL GENERALLY BE AT 7-12K FT AGL INTO
TONIGHT. ISOLD STORMS POSSIBLE EAST OF KTUS OVERNIGHT...INCLUDING
THE KDUG AREA. SOME CLEARING TUESDAY MORNING ESPECIALLY FROM KTUS
WESTWARD. AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR TAF AMENDMENTS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL OCCUR THIS AFTERNOON
AND EVENING. EXPECT STRONG...GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH
THE STRONGER STORMS. DRIER CONDITIONS WILL THEN PROVIDE DECREASED
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY FOR MUCH OF THE AREA TUESDAY THROUGH
THURSDAY...EXCEPT FOR AREAS NEAR THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER AND NEW
MEXICO BORDER AREAS. THEREAFTER...SCATTERED MOSTLY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING THUNDERSTORMS WILL PREVAIL FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY AS DEEPER
MOISTURE RETURNS TO THE AREA. OTHERWISE...NORMAL DIURNAL WIND TRENDS
WILL OCCUR WITH OCCASIONAL GUSTS DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS DUE TO
DAYTIME HEATING.

&&

.TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...YOUTUBE...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/TUCSON

MEYER/GLUECK







000
FXUS65 KTWC 282123
AFDTWC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ
220 PM MST MON JUL 28 2014

.SYNOPSIS...WE STILL HAVE GOOD MOISTURE IN PLACE FOR A CHANCE OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. SOME STORMS
WILL GENERATE LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL. FEWER STORMS ARE EXPECTED
AROUND MID WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVERHEAD ACCOMPANIED BY
SEVERAL DEGREES OF HEATING BY TUESDAY OR WEDNESDAY. A STRONGER
CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS RETURNS ONCE AGAIN TO END THE WEEK AND TAKE
US INTO NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.DISCUSSION...SLOW DEVELOPMENT IN NORTHERN PARTS OF OUR AREA BEHIND
EXITING MCV FROM LAST NIGHT. ELSEWHERE WE HAVE GREAT MOISTURE BUT
MEAGER FLOW. WIND PROFILE NOT OPTIMAL FOR GOOD STORM STRUCTURE. SLOW
MOVING STORMS THAT INITIALLY ARE CHOKING BEFORE REACHING MID CYCLE.
WE SHOULD MANAGE BETTER COVERAGE LATER IN THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY
EVENING...BUT STORMS WILL TEND TO STRUGGLE AWAY FROM TERRAIN
ENHANCEMENT. WEAK UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE ON THE EASTERN FLANK OF A
FEATURE PUSHING NORTH THROUGH FAR SOUTHWEST ARIZONA AND SOUTHERN
CALIFORNIA COULD ENHANCE SOME OF THE STORM ACTIVITY JUST WEST OF
TUCSON. ANOTHER IMPULSE IN FAR NORTHERN SONORA WILL PROBABLY ENHANCE
SOME OF THE STORMS IN COCHISE COUNTY THIS AFTERNOON. THAT ONE WILL
ALSO TEND TO KEEP STORMS GOING INTO THE EARLY MORNING HOURS EAST OF
TUCSON. WET STORMS WITH LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING THE MAIN STORY.

OVERALL RIDGE AXIS JUST EAST AND/OR NORTHEAST OF THE AREA COMBINED
WITH GULF SURGE A COUPLE OF DAYS AGO HAS SERVED SOUTHEAST ARIZONA
WELL OVER THE PAST 3 DAYS. DOWNTURN EXPECTED STARTING AS SOON AS
TUESDAY AS A SECONDARY HIGH CENTER CONSOLIDATES NEARLY OVERHEAD TO A
LITTLE SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST OF OUR AREAS. THIS WILL TEND TO PUSH
STORM ACTIVITY BACK TO BORDER AND MOUNTAIN AREAS WHILE WE HEAT UP
SEVERAL DEGREES (PERHAPS AGAIN CLIMBING TO A FEW DEGREES SHY OF
RECORD LEVELS). ONE CAVEAT TO THIS IS THE  MOISTURE TRANSPORT TRENDS
UP THE GULF ARE ONCE AGAIN INCREASING...ENHANCED SOMEWHAT BY THAT
NICE COMPLEX THAT PUSHED INTO THE MOUTH OF THE GULF LAST NIGHT FROM
WESTERN MEXICO AROUND 23N. WE SHOULD MANAGE TO AT LEAST KEEP
INTERNATIONAL BORDER AREAS ACTIVE OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS.

LATE IN THE WEEK THE SEGMENT OF THE RIDGE OVER OUR AREA SHOULD
WEAKEN AS WE SEE SOME WEAK TROUGHINESS TENDENCIES NEAR THE CENTRAL
AND NORTHERN COAST. THAT ALLOW A DEGREE OR TWO OF COOLING IN MID
LEVELS WHILE ALSO ALLOWING DEEPER MOISTURE IMPORT ONCE AGAIN. ECMWF
KEYS ON A NICE IMPULSE ROTATING IN FROM NORTHERN MEXICO FRIDAY
AFTERNOON FOR A STRONG UPTICK IN THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE THAT SHOULD
TAKE US INTO THE WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION...VALID THRU 29/21Z.
SCATTERED TSRA/SHRA THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING. MVFR
CONDITIONS WILL OCCUR WITH THE STRONGER TSRA ALONG WITH WIND GUSTS
TO AROUND 45 KTS. CLOUD DECKS WILL GENERALLY BE AT 7-12K FT AGL INTO
TONIGHT. ISOLD STORMS POSSIBLE EAST OF KTUS OVERNIGHT...INCLUDING
THE KDUG AREA. SOME CLEARING TUESDAY MORNING ESPECIALLY FROM KTUS
WESTWARD. AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR TAF AMENDMENTS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL OCCUR THIS AFTERNOON
AND EVENING. EXPECT STRONG...GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH
THE STRONGER STORMS. DRIER CONDITIONS WILL THEN PROVIDE DECREASED
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY FOR MUCH OF THE AREA TUESDAY THROUGH
THURSDAY...EXCEPT FOR AREAS NEAR THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER AND NEW
MEXICO BORDER AREAS. THEREAFTER...SCATTERED MOSTLY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING THUNDERSTORMS WILL PREVAIL FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY AS DEEPER
MOISTURE RETURNS TO THE AREA. OTHERWISE...NORMAL DIURNAL WIND TRENDS
WILL OCCUR WITH OCCASIONAL GUSTS DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS DUE TO
DAYTIME HEATING.

&&

.TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...YOUTUBE...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/TUCSON

MEYER/GLUECK







000
FXUS65 KTWC 282123
AFDTWC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ
220 PM MST MON JUL 28 2014

.SYNOPSIS...WE STILL HAVE GOOD MOISTURE IN PLACE FOR A CHANCE OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. SOME STORMS
WILL GENERATE LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL. FEWER STORMS ARE EXPECTED
AROUND MID WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVERHEAD ACCOMPANIED BY
SEVERAL DEGREES OF HEATING BY TUESDAY OR WEDNESDAY. A STRONGER
CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS RETURNS ONCE AGAIN TO END THE WEEK AND TAKE
US INTO NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.DISCUSSION...SLOW DEVELOPMENT IN NORTHERN PARTS OF OUR AREA BEHIND
EXITING MCV FROM LAST NIGHT. ELSEWHERE WE HAVE GREAT MOISTURE BUT
MEAGER FLOW. WIND PROFILE NOT OPTIMAL FOR GOOD STORM STRUCTURE. SLOW
MOVING STORMS THAT INITIALLY ARE CHOKING BEFORE REACHING MID CYCLE.
WE SHOULD MANAGE BETTER COVERAGE LATER IN THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY
EVENING...BUT STORMS WILL TEND TO STRUGGLE AWAY FROM TERRAIN
ENHANCEMENT. WEAK UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE ON THE EASTERN FLANK OF A
FEATURE PUSHING NORTH THROUGH FAR SOUTHWEST ARIZONA AND SOUTHERN
CALIFORNIA COULD ENHANCE SOME OF THE STORM ACTIVITY JUST WEST OF
TUCSON. ANOTHER IMPULSE IN FAR NORTHERN SONORA WILL PROBABLY ENHANCE
SOME OF THE STORMS IN COCHISE COUNTY THIS AFTERNOON. THAT ONE WILL
ALSO TEND TO KEEP STORMS GOING INTO THE EARLY MORNING HOURS EAST OF
TUCSON. WET STORMS WITH LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING THE MAIN STORY.

OVERALL RIDGE AXIS JUST EAST AND/OR NORTHEAST OF THE AREA COMBINED
WITH GULF SURGE A COUPLE OF DAYS AGO HAS SERVED SOUTHEAST ARIZONA
WELL OVER THE PAST 3 DAYS. DOWNTURN EXPECTED STARTING AS SOON AS
TUESDAY AS A SECONDARY HIGH CENTER CONSOLIDATES NEARLY OVERHEAD TO A
LITTLE SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST OF OUR AREAS. THIS WILL TEND TO PUSH
STORM ACTIVITY BACK TO BORDER AND MOUNTAIN AREAS WHILE WE HEAT UP
SEVERAL DEGREES (PERHAPS AGAIN CLIMBING TO A FEW DEGREES SHY OF
RECORD LEVELS). ONE CAVEAT TO THIS IS THE  MOISTURE TRANSPORT TRENDS
UP THE GULF ARE ONCE AGAIN INCREASING...ENHANCED SOMEWHAT BY THAT
NICE COMPLEX THAT PUSHED INTO THE MOUTH OF THE GULF LAST NIGHT FROM
WESTERN MEXICO AROUND 23N. WE SHOULD MANAGE TO AT LEAST KEEP
INTERNATIONAL BORDER AREAS ACTIVE OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS.

LATE IN THE WEEK THE SEGMENT OF THE RIDGE OVER OUR AREA SHOULD
WEAKEN AS WE SEE SOME WEAK TROUGHINESS TENDENCIES NEAR THE CENTRAL
AND NORTHERN COAST. THAT ALLOW A DEGREE OR TWO OF COOLING IN MID
LEVELS WHILE ALSO ALLOWING DEEPER MOISTURE IMPORT ONCE AGAIN. ECMWF
KEYS ON A NICE IMPULSE ROTATING IN FROM NORTHERN MEXICO FRIDAY
AFTERNOON FOR A STRONG UPTICK IN THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE THAT SHOULD
TAKE US INTO THE WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION...VALID THRU 29/21Z.
SCATTERED TSRA/SHRA THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING. MVFR
CONDITIONS WILL OCCUR WITH THE STRONGER TSRA ALONG WITH WIND GUSTS
TO AROUND 45 KTS. CLOUD DECKS WILL GENERALLY BE AT 7-12K FT AGL INTO
TONIGHT. ISOLD STORMS POSSIBLE EAST OF KTUS OVERNIGHT...INCLUDING
THE KDUG AREA. SOME CLEARING TUESDAY MORNING ESPECIALLY FROM KTUS
WESTWARD. AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR TAF AMENDMENTS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL OCCUR THIS AFTERNOON
AND EVENING. EXPECT STRONG...GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH
THE STRONGER STORMS. DRIER CONDITIONS WILL THEN PROVIDE DECREASED
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY FOR MUCH OF THE AREA TUESDAY THROUGH
THURSDAY...EXCEPT FOR AREAS NEAR THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER AND NEW
MEXICO BORDER AREAS. THEREAFTER...SCATTERED MOSTLY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING THUNDERSTORMS WILL PREVAIL FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY AS DEEPER
MOISTURE RETURNS TO THE AREA. OTHERWISE...NORMAL DIURNAL WIND TRENDS
WILL OCCUR WITH OCCASIONAL GUSTS DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS DUE TO
DAYTIME HEATING.

&&

.TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...YOUTUBE...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/TUCSON

MEYER/GLUECK







000
FXUS65 KTWC 282123
AFDTWC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ
220 PM MST MON JUL 28 2014

.SYNOPSIS...WE STILL HAVE GOOD MOISTURE IN PLACE FOR A CHANCE OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. SOME STORMS
WILL GENERATE LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL. FEWER STORMS ARE EXPECTED
AROUND MID WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVERHEAD ACCOMPANIED BY
SEVERAL DEGREES OF HEATING BY TUESDAY OR WEDNESDAY. A STRONGER
CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS RETURNS ONCE AGAIN TO END THE WEEK AND TAKE
US INTO NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.DISCUSSION...SLOW DEVELOPMENT IN NORTHERN PARTS OF OUR AREA BEHIND
EXITING MCV FROM LAST NIGHT. ELSEWHERE WE HAVE GREAT MOISTURE BUT
MEAGER FLOW. WIND PROFILE NOT OPTIMAL FOR GOOD STORM STRUCTURE. SLOW
MOVING STORMS THAT INITIALLY ARE CHOKING BEFORE REACHING MID CYCLE.
WE SHOULD MANAGE BETTER COVERAGE LATER IN THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY
EVENING...BUT STORMS WILL TEND TO STRUGGLE AWAY FROM TERRAIN
ENHANCEMENT. WEAK UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE ON THE EASTERN FLANK OF A
FEATURE PUSHING NORTH THROUGH FAR SOUTHWEST ARIZONA AND SOUTHERN
CALIFORNIA COULD ENHANCE SOME OF THE STORM ACTIVITY JUST WEST OF
TUCSON. ANOTHER IMPULSE IN FAR NORTHERN SONORA WILL PROBABLY ENHANCE
SOME OF THE STORMS IN COCHISE COUNTY THIS AFTERNOON. THAT ONE WILL
ALSO TEND TO KEEP STORMS GOING INTO THE EARLY MORNING HOURS EAST OF
TUCSON. WET STORMS WITH LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING THE MAIN STORY.

OVERALL RIDGE AXIS JUST EAST AND/OR NORTHEAST OF THE AREA COMBINED
WITH GULF SURGE A COUPLE OF DAYS AGO HAS SERVED SOUTHEAST ARIZONA
WELL OVER THE PAST 3 DAYS. DOWNTURN EXPECTED STARTING AS SOON AS
TUESDAY AS A SECONDARY HIGH CENTER CONSOLIDATES NEARLY OVERHEAD TO A
LITTLE SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST OF OUR AREAS. THIS WILL TEND TO PUSH
STORM ACTIVITY BACK TO BORDER AND MOUNTAIN AREAS WHILE WE HEAT UP
SEVERAL DEGREES (PERHAPS AGAIN CLIMBING TO A FEW DEGREES SHY OF
RECORD LEVELS). ONE CAVEAT TO THIS IS THE  MOISTURE TRANSPORT TRENDS
UP THE GULF ARE ONCE AGAIN INCREASING...ENHANCED SOMEWHAT BY THAT
NICE COMPLEX THAT PUSHED INTO THE MOUTH OF THE GULF LAST NIGHT FROM
WESTERN MEXICO AROUND 23N. WE SHOULD MANAGE TO AT LEAST KEEP
INTERNATIONAL BORDER AREAS ACTIVE OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS.

LATE IN THE WEEK THE SEGMENT OF THE RIDGE OVER OUR AREA SHOULD
WEAKEN AS WE SEE SOME WEAK TROUGHINESS TENDENCIES NEAR THE CENTRAL
AND NORTHERN COAST. THAT ALLOW A DEGREE OR TWO OF COOLING IN MID
LEVELS WHILE ALSO ALLOWING DEEPER MOISTURE IMPORT ONCE AGAIN. ECMWF
KEYS ON A NICE IMPULSE ROTATING IN FROM NORTHERN MEXICO FRIDAY
AFTERNOON FOR A STRONG UPTICK IN THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE THAT SHOULD
TAKE US INTO THE WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION...VALID THRU 29/21Z.
SCATTERED TSRA/SHRA THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING. MVFR
CONDITIONS WILL OCCUR WITH THE STRONGER TSRA ALONG WITH WIND GUSTS
TO AROUND 45 KTS. CLOUD DECKS WILL GENERALLY BE AT 7-12K FT AGL INTO
TONIGHT. ISOLD STORMS POSSIBLE EAST OF KTUS OVERNIGHT...INCLUDING
THE KDUG AREA. SOME CLEARING TUESDAY MORNING ESPECIALLY FROM KTUS
WESTWARD. AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR TAF AMENDMENTS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL OCCUR THIS AFTERNOON
AND EVENING. EXPECT STRONG...GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH
THE STRONGER STORMS. DRIER CONDITIONS WILL THEN PROVIDE DECREASED
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY FOR MUCH OF THE AREA TUESDAY THROUGH
THURSDAY...EXCEPT FOR AREAS NEAR THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER AND NEW
MEXICO BORDER AREAS. THEREAFTER...SCATTERED MOSTLY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING THUNDERSTORMS WILL PREVAIL FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY AS DEEPER
MOISTURE RETURNS TO THE AREA. OTHERWISE...NORMAL DIURNAL WIND TRENDS
WILL OCCUR WITH OCCASIONAL GUSTS DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS DUE TO
DAYTIME HEATING.

&&

.TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...YOUTUBE...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/TUCSON

MEYER/GLUECK







000
FXUS65 KPSR 282012
AFDPSR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PHOENIX AZ
110 PM MST MON JUL 28 2014


.SYNOPSIS...
THERE WILL BE A CONTINUED CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS
THE FORECAST AREA THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...BEFORE DRIER AIR
MOVES INTO THE REGION TUESDAY THROUGH LATE WEEK. STORM CHANCES WILL
INCREASE AGAIN FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND AS MOISTURE MOVES BACK INTO
THE SOUTHWEST UNITED STATES.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
A GOOD DEAL OF THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY HAS POPPED UP ACROSS NORTHERN
ARIZONA THIS AFTERNOON DUE TO A BROAD UPPER LEVEL CIRCULATION MOVING
NORTHWARD ACROSS SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA. VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY ALSO
SHOWING PATCHES OF CUMULUS DEVELOPMENT ACROSS OUR CWA FROM WESTERN
MARICOPA COUNTY/GILA BEND AREA...WESTWARD ACROSS SE CALIFORNIA INTO
JOSHUA TREE NP. CONVECTION HAS BEEN SLOW TO INITIATE ACROSS OUR CWA
THIS AFTERNOON GIVEN THE LIGHTER WINDS ALOFT AND THE MORE SUBSIDENT
NATURE TO THE ATMOSPHERE. STILL...GIVEN THE AMOUNT OF PRECIPITABLE
WATER IN THE ATMOSPHERIC PROFILE...AND GOOD SURFACE HEATING...WE
WILL CONTINUE TO MAINTAIN SLIGHT CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION FOR SOME
AREAS OF OUR CWA INTO THE EVENING HOURS. THE BEST CHANCES...ALBEIT
SLIGHT WILL STILL BE ACROSS SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA. PRECIPITATION
CHANCES QUICKLY DWINDLE THIS EVENING FOR SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA...AS
ALL MODELS AGREE THAT UPPER LEVEL FLOW WILL BECOME WESTERLY AND
DRIER LATER TONIGHT.

TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...A DRAMATIC DECREASE THE AMOUNT OF
CONVECTION ACROSS THE AREA...WITH THE FOCUS FOR ANY PRECIPITATION IN
THE MOUNTAINS EAST OF PHOENIX THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. MEAN
BL MIXING RATIOS DROP TO AROUND 6 G/KG DURING THE MIDDLE PART OF THE
WEEK AND EVEN CLIMO POPS MAY END UP BEING TOO HIGH. WITH DRIER AIR
WORKING INTO THE AREA MID WEEK...TEMPS WILL LIKELY TAKE A RUN INTO
THE 105-109 RANGE ACROSS THE DESERTS. CONSEQUENTLY...THERE SHOULD BE
A SLIGHT DROP-OFF BY THE WEEKEND AS DEEPER MOISTURE MAKES ITS WAY
BACK INTO THE AREA. STILL ABOVE 100 BUT SOMEWHAT LOWER THAN THE MID
WEEK VALUES. MADE SLIGHT REDUCTIONS TO POPS ACROSS THE BOARD FROM
TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY BASED ON LATEST GUIDANCE WITH THE HIGHEST
VALUES DISPLACED WELL EAST OF THE DESERTS. THE MONSOON MOISTURE
WONT BE TERRIBLY FAR AWAY...WINDS PER THE TWO-THREE MOST RECENT
RUNS OF THE EUROPEAN AND GFS BRING INCREASED MIXING RATIOS BACK INTO
THE AREA FRIDAY AND ALMOST CERTAINLY BY THE WEEKEND. PRECIP CHANCES
ONCE AGAIN LOOK FAVORABLE FOR THE LATTER PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST
PERIOD ALTHOUGH ITS STILL DIFFICULT TO HIGHLIGHT ONE DAY VS ANOTHER
UNTIL WE GET A LITTLE CLOSER.



&&

.AVIATION...
SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA INCLUDING KPHX...KIWA...AND KSDL...
A SMALL DISTURBANCE MOVING NORTHWARD THROUGH EAST-CENTRAL ARIZONA
EARLY THIS MORNING MAY PRODUCE SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS ROUGHLY BETWEEN
PHX AND SJN UNTIL ABOUT 16Z. CLOUDINESS...BASES AOA 15 KFT
MSL...WILL ALSO BEGIN TO THIN OUT AFT 16Z. MEANWHILE...A LARGER
DISTURBANCE CENTERED OVER NORTHERN BAJA AS OF 12Z MAY LEAD TO SOME
STORM REDEVELOPMENT BY 18Z BUT CONFIDENCE TOO LOW AT THE TAF SITES
TO INSERT TEMPO TSRA.

SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA AND SOUTHWEST ARIZONA INCLUDING KIPL AND KBLH...
A WEATHER DISTURBANCE CENTERED OVER NORTHERN BAJA MAY LEAD TO THE
DEVELOPMENT OF TSTORMS BEFORE 18Z...MOST LIKELY OVER LA PAZ AND
EASTERN RIVERSIDE COUNTIES. CONFIDENCE TOO LOW AT THE TAF SITES TO
INSERT TEMPO TSRA. HOWEVER...KBLH MORE LIKELY TO SEE TSTORMS THAN
KIPL.

AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDED TAFS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...
A BIT OF ADDITIONAL DRYING CAN BE EXPECTED WEDNESDAY WITH LITTLE
CHANGE THURSDAY. STORM CHANCES WILL BE SLIGHT AND WILL BE LIMITED TO
THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA. LATE IN THE WEEK AND
OVER THE WEEKEND...AN INCREASE IN MOISTURE AND ASSOCIATED HUMIDITIES
IS ANTICIPATED AND STORM CHANCES...THOUGH SLIGHT...EXPAND TO THE
LOWER ELEVATIONS. HIGH TEMPERATURES TREND DOWNWARD AS WELL.


&&

.PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

AZ...NONE.

CA...NONE.

&&

$$

VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/PHOENIX

DISCUSSION...MEYERS/LEINS
AVIATION...AJ
FIRE WEATHER...AJ





000
FXUS65 KPSR 282012
AFDPSR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PHOENIX AZ
110 PM MST MON JUL 28 2014


.SYNOPSIS...
THERE WILL BE A CONTINUED CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS
THE FORECAST AREA THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...BEFORE DRIER AIR
MOVES INTO THE REGION TUESDAY THROUGH LATE WEEK. STORM CHANCES WILL
INCREASE AGAIN FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND AS MOISTURE MOVES BACK INTO
THE SOUTHWEST UNITED STATES.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
A GOOD DEAL OF THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY HAS POPPED UP ACROSS NORTHERN
ARIZONA THIS AFTERNOON DUE TO A BROAD UPPER LEVEL CIRCULATION MOVING
NORTHWARD ACROSS SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA. VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY ALSO
SHOWING PATCHES OF CUMULUS DEVELOPMENT ACROSS OUR CWA FROM WESTERN
MARICOPA COUNTY/GILA BEND AREA...WESTWARD ACROSS SE CALIFORNIA INTO
JOSHUA TREE NP. CONVECTION HAS BEEN SLOW TO INITIATE ACROSS OUR CWA
THIS AFTERNOON GIVEN THE LIGHTER WINDS ALOFT AND THE MORE SUBSIDENT
NATURE TO THE ATMOSPHERE. STILL...GIVEN THE AMOUNT OF PRECIPITABLE
WATER IN THE ATMOSPHERIC PROFILE...AND GOOD SURFACE HEATING...WE
WILL CONTINUE TO MAINTAIN SLIGHT CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION FOR SOME
AREAS OF OUR CWA INTO THE EVENING HOURS. THE BEST CHANCES...ALBEIT
SLIGHT WILL STILL BE ACROSS SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA. PRECIPITATION
CHANCES QUICKLY DWINDLE THIS EVENING FOR SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA...AS
ALL MODELS AGREE THAT UPPER LEVEL FLOW WILL BECOME WESTERLY AND
DRIER LATER TONIGHT.

TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...A DRAMATIC DECREASE THE AMOUNT OF
CONVECTION ACROSS THE AREA...WITH THE FOCUS FOR ANY PRECIPITATION IN
THE MOUNTAINS EAST OF PHOENIX THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. MEAN
BL MIXING RATIOS DROP TO AROUND 6 G/KG DURING THE MIDDLE PART OF THE
WEEK AND EVEN CLIMO POPS MAY END UP BEING TOO HIGH. WITH DRIER AIR
WORKING INTO THE AREA MID WEEK...TEMPS WILL LIKELY TAKE A RUN INTO
THE 105-109 RANGE ACROSS THE DESERTS. CONSEQUENTLY...THERE SHOULD BE
A SLIGHT DROP-OFF BY THE WEEKEND AS DEEPER MOISTURE MAKES ITS WAY
BACK INTO THE AREA. STILL ABOVE 100 BUT SOMEWHAT LOWER THAN THE MID
WEEK VALUES. MADE SLIGHT REDUCTIONS TO POPS ACROSS THE BOARD FROM
TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY BASED ON LATEST GUIDANCE WITH THE HIGHEST
VALUES DISPLACED WELL EAST OF THE DESERTS. THE MONSOON MOISTURE
WONT BE TERRIBLY FAR AWAY...WINDS PER THE TWO-THREE MOST RECENT
RUNS OF THE EUROPEAN AND GFS BRING INCREASED MIXING RATIOS BACK INTO
THE AREA FRIDAY AND ALMOST CERTAINLY BY THE WEEKEND. PRECIP CHANCES
ONCE AGAIN LOOK FAVORABLE FOR THE LATTER PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST
PERIOD ALTHOUGH ITS STILL DIFFICULT TO HIGHLIGHT ONE DAY VS ANOTHER
UNTIL WE GET A LITTLE CLOSER.



&&

.AVIATION...
SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA INCLUDING KPHX...KIWA...AND KSDL...
A SMALL DISTURBANCE MOVING NORTHWARD THROUGH EAST-CENTRAL ARIZONA
EARLY THIS MORNING MAY PRODUCE SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS ROUGHLY BETWEEN
PHX AND SJN UNTIL ABOUT 16Z. CLOUDINESS...BASES AOA 15 KFT
MSL...WILL ALSO BEGIN TO THIN OUT AFT 16Z. MEANWHILE...A LARGER
DISTURBANCE CENTERED OVER NORTHERN BAJA AS OF 12Z MAY LEAD TO SOME
STORM REDEVELOPMENT BY 18Z BUT CONFIDENCE TOO LOW AT THE TAF SITES
TO INSERT TEMPO TSRA.

SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA AND SOUTHWEST ARIZONA INCLUDING KIPL AND KBLH...
A WEATHER DISTURBANCE CENTERED OVER NORTHERN BAJA MAY LEAD TO THE
DEVELOPMENT OF TSTORMS BEFORE 18Z...MOST LIKELY OVER LA PAZ AND
EASTERN RIVERSIDE COUNTIES. CONFIDENCE TOO LOW AT THE TAF SITES TO
INSERT TEMPO TSRA. HOWEVER...KBLH MORE LIKELY TO SEE TSTORMS THAN
KIPL.

AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDED TAFS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...
A BIT OF ADDITIONAL DRYING CAN BE EXPECTED WEDNESDAY WITH LITTLE
CHANGE THURSDAY. STORM CHANCES WILL BE SLIGHT AND WILL BE LIMITED TO
THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA. LATE IN THE WEEK AND
OVER THE WEEKEND...AN INCREASE IN MOISTURE AND ASSOCIATED HUMIDITIES
IS ANTICIPATED AND STORM CHANCES...THOUGH SLIGHT...EXPAND TO THE
LOWER ELEVATIONS. HIGH TEMPERATURES TREND DOWNWARD AS WELL.


&&

.PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

AZ...NONE.

CA...NONE.

&&

$$

VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/PHOENIX

DISCUSSION...MEYERS/LEINS
AVIATION...AJ
FIRE WEATHER...AJ





000
FXUS65 KPSR 282012
AFDPSR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PHOENIX AZ
110 PM MST MON JUL 28 2014


.SYNOPSIS...
THERE WILL BE A CONTINUED CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS
THE FORECAST AREA THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...BEFORE DRIER AIR
MOVES INTO THE REGION TUESDAY THROUGH LATE WEEK. STORM CHANCES WILL
INCREASE AGAIN FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND AS MOISTURE MOVES BACK INTO
THE SOUTHWEST UNITED STATES.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
A GOOD DEAL OF THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY HAS POPPED UP ACROSS NORTHERN
ARIZONA THIS AFTERNOON DUE TO A BROAD UPPER LEVEL CIRCULATION MOVING
NORTHWARD ACROSS SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA. VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY ALSO
SHOWING PATCHES OF CUMULUS DEVELOPMENT ACROSS OUR CWA FROM WESTERN
MARICOPA COUNTY/GILA BEND AREA...WESTWARD ACROSS SE CALIFORNIA INTO
JOSHUA TREE NP. CONVECTION HAS BEEN SLOW TO INITIATE ACROSS OUR CWA
THIS AFTERNOON GIVEN THE LIGHTER WINDS ALOFT AND THE MORE SUBSIDENT
NATURE TO THE ATMOSPHERE. STILL...GIVEN THE AMOUNT OF PRECIPITABLE
WATER IN THE ATMOSPHERIC PROFILE...AND GOOD SURFACE HEATING...WE
WILL CONTINUE TO MAINTAIN SLIGHT CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION FOR SOME
AREAS OF OUR CWA INTO THE EVENING HOURS. THE BEST CHANCES...ALBEIT
SLIGHT WILL STILL BE ACROSS SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA. PRECIPITATION
CHANCES QUICKLY DWINDLE THIS EVENING FOR SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA...AS
ALL MODELS AGREE THAT UPPER LEVEL FLOW WILL BECOME WESTERLY AND
DRIER LATER TONIGHT.

TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...A DRAMATIC DECREASE THE AMOUNT OF
CONVECTION ACROSS THE AREA...WITH THE FOCUS FOR ANY PRECIPITATION IN
THE MOUNTAINS EAST OF PHOENIX THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. MEAN
BL MIXING RATIOS DROP TO AROUND 6 G/KG DURING THE MIDDLE PART OF THE
WEEK AND EVEN CLIMO POPS MAY END UP BEING TOO HIGH. WITH DRIER AIR
WORKING INTO THE AREA MID WEEK...TEMPS WILL LIKELY TAKE A RUN INTO
THE 105-109 RANGE ACROSS THE DESERTS. CONSEQUENTLY...THERE SHOULD BE
A SLIGHT DROP-OFF BY THE WEEKEND AS DEEPER MOISTURE MAKES ITS WAY
BACK INTO THE AREA. STILL ABOVE 100 BUT SOMEWHAT LOWER THAN THE MID
WEEK VALUES. MADE SLIGHT REDUCTIONS TO POPS ACROSS THE BOARD FROM
TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY BASED ON LATEST GUIDANCE WITH THE HIGHEST
VALUES DISPLACED WELL EAST OF THE DESERTS. THE MONSOON MOISTURE
WONT BE TERRIBLY FAR AWAY...WINDS PER THE TWO-THREE MOST RECENT
RUNS OF THE EUROPEAN AND GFS BRING INCREASED MIXING RATIOS BACK INTO
THE AREA FRIDAY AND ALMOST CERTAINLY BY THE WEEKEND. PRECIP CHANCES
ONCE AGAIN LOOK FAVORABLE FOR THE LATTER PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST
PERIOD ALTHOUGH ITS STILL DIFFICULT TO HIGHLIGHT ONE DAY VS ANOTHER
UNTIL WE GET A LITTLE CLOSER.



&&

.AVIATION...
SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA INCLUDING KPHX...KIWA...AND KSDL...
A SMALL DISTURBANCE MOVING NORTHWARD THROUGH EAST-CENTRAL ARIZONA
EARLY THIS MORNING MAY PRODUCE SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS ROUGHLY BETWEEN
PHX AND SJN UNTIL ABOUT 16Z. CLOUDINESS...BASES AOA 15 KFT
MSL...WILL ALSO BEGIN TO THIN OUT AFT 16Z. MEANWHILE...A LARGER
DISTURBANCE CENTERED OVER NORTHERN BAJA AS OF 12Z MAY LEAD TO SOME
STORM REDEVELOPMENT BY 18Z BUT CONFIDENCE TOO LOW AT THE TAF SITES
TO INSERT TEMPO TSRA.

SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA AND SOUTHWEST ARIZONA INCLUDING KIPL AND KBLH...
A WEATHER DISTURBANCE CENTERED OVER NORTHERN BAJA MAY LEAD TO THE
DEVELOPMENT OF TSTORMS BEFORE 18Z...MOST LIKELY OVER LA PAZ AND
EASTERN RIVERSIDE COUNTIES. CONFIDENCE TOO LOW AT THE TAF SITES TO
INSERT TEMPO TSRA. HOWEVER...KBLH MORE LIKELY TO SEE TSTORMS THAN
KIPL.

AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDED TAFS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...
A BIT OF ADDITIONAL DRYING CAN BE EXPECTED WEDNESDAY WITH LITTLE
CHANGE THURSDAY. STORM CHANCES WILL BE SLIGHT AND WILL BE LIMITED TO
THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA. LATE IN THE WEEK AND
OVER THE WEEKEND...AN INCREASE IN MOISTURE AND ASSOCIATED HUMIDITIES
IS ANTICIPATED AND STORM CHANCES...THOUGH SLIGHT...EXPAND TO THE
LOWER ELEVATIONS. HIGH TEMPERATURES TREND DOWNWARD AS WELL.


&&

.PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

AZ...NONE.

CA...NONE.

&&

$$

VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/PHOENIX

DISCUSSION...MEYERS/LEINS
AVIATION...AJ
FIRE WEATHER...AJ





000
FXUS65 KPSR 282012
AFDPSR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PHOENIX AZ
110 PM MST MON JUL 28 2014


.SYNOPSIS...
THERE WILL BE A CONTINUED CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS
THE FORECAST AREA THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...BEFORE DRIER AIR
MOVES INTO THE REGION TUESDAY THROUGH LATE WEEK. STORM CHANCES WILL
INCREASE AGAIN FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND AS MOISTURE MOVES BACK INTO
THE SOUTHWEST UNITED STATES.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
A GOOD DEAL OF THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY HAS POPPED UP ACROSS NORTHERN
ARIZONA THIS AFTERNOON DUE TO A BROAD UPPER LEVEL CIRCULATION MOVING
NORTHWARD ACROSS SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA. VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY ALSO
SHOWING PATCHES OF CUMULUS DEVELOPMENT ACROSS OUR CWA FROM WESTERN
MARICOPA COUNTY/GILA BEND AREA...WESTWARD ACROSS SE CALIFORNIA INTO
JOSHUA TREE NP. CONVECTION HAS BEEN SLOW TO INITIATE ACROSS OUR CWA
THIS AFTERNOON GIVEN THE LIGHTER WINDS ALOFT AND THE MORE SUBSIDENT
NATURE TO THE ATMOSPHERE. STILL...GIVEN THE AMOUNT OF PRECIPITABLE
WATER IN THE ATMOSPHERIC PROFILE...AND GOOD SURFACE HEATING...WE
WILL CONTINUE TO MAINTAIN SLIGHT CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION FOR SOME
AREAS OF OUR CWA INTO THE EVENING HOURS. THE BEST CHANCES...ALBEIT
SLIGHT WILL STILL BE ACROSS SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA. PRECIPITATION
CHANCES QUICKLY DWINDLE THIS EVENING FOR SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA...AS
ALL MODELS AGREE THAT UPPER LEVEL FLOW WILL BECOME WESTERLY AND
DRIER LATER TONIGHT.

TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...A DRAMATIC DECREASE THE AMOUNT OF
CONVECTION ACROSS THE AREA...WITH THE FOCUS FOR ANY PRECIPITATION IN
THE MOUNTAINS EAST OF PHOENIX THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. MEAN
BL MIXING RATIOS DROP TO AROUND 6 G/KG DURING THE MIDDLE PART OF THE
WEEK AND EVEN CLIMO POPS MAY END UP BEING TOO HIGH. WITH DRIER AIR
WORKING INTO THE AREA MID WEEK...TEMPS WILL LIKELY TAKE A RUN INTO
THE 105-109 RANGE ACROSS THE DESERTS. CONSEQUENTLY...THERE SHOULD BE
A SLIGHT DROP-OFF BY THE WEEKEND AS DEEPER MOISTURE MAKES ITS WAY
BACK INTO THE AREA. STILL ABOVE 100 BUT SOMEWHAT LOWER THAN THE MID
WEEK VALUES. MADE SLIGHT REDUCTIONS TO POPS ACROSS THE BOARD FROM
TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY BASED ON LATEST GUIDANCE WITH THE HIGHEST
VALUES DISPLACED WELL EAST OF THE DESERTS. THE MONSOON MOISTURE
WONT BE TERRIBLY FAR AWAY...WINDS PER THE TWO-THREE MOST RECENT
RUNS OF THE EUROPEAN AND GFS BRING INCREASED MIXING RATIOS BACK INTO
THE AREA FRIDAY AND ALMOST CERTAINLY BY THE WEEKEND. PRECIP CHANCES
ONCE AGAIN LOOK FAVORABLE FOR THE LATTER PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST
PERIOD ALTHOUGH ITS STILL DIFFICULT TO HIGHLIGHT ONE DAY VS ANOTHER
UNTIL WE GET A LITTLE CLOSER.



&&

.AVIATION...
SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA INCLUDING KPHX...KIWA...AND KSDL...
A SMALL DISTURBANCE MOVING NORTHWARD THROUGH EAST-CENTRAL ARIZONA
EARLY THIS MORNING MAY PRODUCE SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS ROUGHLY BETWEEN
PHX AND SJN UNTIL ABOUT 16Z. CLOUDINESS...BASES AOA 15 KFT
MSL...WILL ALSO BEGIN TO THIN OUT AFT 16Z. MEANWHILE...A LARGER
DISTURBANCE CENTERED OVER NORTHERN BAJA AS OF 12Z MAY LEAD TO SOME
STORM REDEVELOPMENT BY 18Z BUT CONFIDENCE TOO LOW AT THE TAF SITES
TO INSERT TEMPO TSRA.

SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA AND SOUTHWEST ARIZONA INCLUDING KIPL AND KBLH...
A WEATHER DISTURBANCE CENTERED OVER NORTHERN BAJA MAY LEAD TO THE
DEVELOPMENT OF TSTORMS BEFORE 18Z...MOST LIKELY OVER LA PAZ AND
EASTERN RIVERSIDE COUNTIES. CONFIDENCE TOO LOW AT THE TAF SITES TO
INSERT TEMPO TSRA. HOWEVER...KBLH MORE LIKELY TO SEE TSTORMS THAN
KIPL.

AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDED TAFS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...
A BIT OF ADDITIONAL DRYING CAN BE EXPECTED WEDNESDAY WITH LITTLE
CHANGE THURSDAY. STORM CHANCES WILL BE SLIGHT AND WILL BE LIMITED TO
THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA. LATE IN THE WEEK AND
OVER THE WEEKEND...AN INCREASE IN MOISTURE AND ASSOCIATED HUMIDITIES
IS ANTICIPATED AND STORM CHANCES...THOUGH SLIGHT...EXPAND TO THE
LOWER ELEVATIONS. HIGH TEMPERATURES TREND DOWNWARD AS WELL.


&&

.PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

AZ...NONE.

CA...NONE.

&&

$$

VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/PHOENIX

DISCUSSION...MEYERS/LEINS
AVIATION...AJ
FIRE WEATHER...AJ





000
FXUS65 KPSR 281708
AFDPSR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PHOENIX AZ
1005 AM MST MON JUL 28 2014


.SYNOPSIS...
THERE WILL BE A CONTINUED CHANCE OF AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA TODAY...BEFORE DRIER AIR
MOVES INTO THE REGION TUESDAY THROUGH LATE WEEK. STORM CHANCES WILL
INCREASE AGAIN FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND AS MOISTURE MOVES BACK INTO
THE SOUTHWEST UNITED STATES.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
VISIBLE AND WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY CLEARLY INDICATE AN MCV
SPINNING OVER EAST CENTRAL ARIZONA AND A LARGER MORE BROAD UPPER
LEVEL CIRCULATION PROGRESSIVELY MOVING NORTHWARD ACROSS BAJA
CALIFORNIA INTO SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA. BETWEEN THE TWO...A COL REGION
APPEARS TO BE FORMING OVER THE CENTRAL ARIZONA DESERTS. 12Z KPSR
RAOB SHOWS THE LIGHTER MORE VARIABLE WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS COL
IN THE 700-500MB LAYER. THERE IS STILL A DECENT AMOUNT OF MOISTURE
IN PLACE ACROSS THE REGION...AROUND 1.50 INCHES OF PRECIPITABLE
WATER NOTED IN THE KTWC/KPSR SOUNDINGS...AND WITH BOTH CIRCULATIONS
PRESENT TO HELP WITH INITIATING CONVECTION...THERE ARE STILL GROUND
TO HOLD ON TO SLIGHT CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION FOR MANY AREAS OF OUR
CWA TODAY. MADE SOME SLIGHT UPWARD ADJUSTMENTS IN THE NEAR TERM
POPS...ALBEIT REFLECTING SLIGHT CHANCES FOR THE LOWER DESERTS AND
BETTER CHANCE POPS FOR OUR HIGHER TERRAIN OF JTNP AND SOUTHERN GILA
COUNTY FOR THIS AFTERNOON. OVERALL...THE LIGHTER WIND FIELDS WILL
NOT BE FAVORABLE FOR ANY TYPE OF ORGANIZED CONVECTION...BUT ANY
STORM THAT FORMS STILL HAS THE POTENTIAL TO PUSH OUT STRONG WINDS
AND HEAVY RAINFALL. MODELS PROG THESE TWO CIRCULATIONS TO MOVE NORTH
AND EAST AS THE DAY PROGRESSES...LEAVING BEHIND SUBSIDENCE DURING
THE AFTERNOON/PEAK HEATING HOURS. WITH THIS IN MIND...NUDGED POPS
DOWNWARD FOR THIS EVENING...ESPECIALLY OUT WEST ACROSS SOUTHEAST
CALIFORNIA AS ALL MODELS AGREE THAT UPPER LEVEL WINDS WILL BECOME
WESTERLY...AND DRIER...LATER TONIGHT. TEMPERATURES TODAY SHOULD BE
SIMILAR TO THAT SUNDAY AFTERNOON...100-107 DEGREES ACROSS THE LOWER
DESERTS.

TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...A DRAMATIC DECREASE THE AMOUNT OF
CONVECTION ACROSS THE AREA...WITH THE FOCUS FOR ANY PRECIPITATION IN
THE MOUNTAINS EAST OF PHOENIX THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. MEAN
BL MIXING RATIOS DROP TO AROUND 6 G/KG DURING THE MIDDLE PART OF THE
WEEK AND EVEN CLIMO POPS MAY END UP BEING TOO HIGH. WITH DRIER AIR
WORKING INTO THE AREA MID WEEK...TEMPS WILL LIKELY TAKE A RUN INTO
THE 105-109 RANGE ACROSS THE DESERTS. CONSEQUENTLY...THERE SHOULD BE
A SLIGHT DROP-OFF BY THE WEEKEND AS DEEPER MOISTURE MAKES ITS WAY
BACK INTO THE AREA. STILL ABOVE 100 BUT SOMEWHAT LOWER THAN THE MID
WEEK VALUES. MADE SLIGHT REDUCTIONS TO POPS ACROSS THE BOARD FROM
TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY BASED ON LATEST GUIDANCE WITH THE HIGHEST
VALUES DISPLACED WELL EAST OF THE DESERTS. THE MONSOON MOISTURE
WONT BE TERRIBLY FAR AWAY...WINDS PER THE TWO-THREE MOST RECENT
RUNS OF THE EUROPEAN AND GFS BRING INCREASED MIXING RATIOS BACK INTO
THE AREA FRIDAY AND ALMOST CERTAINLY BY THE WEEKEND. PRECIP CHANCES
ONCE AGAIN LOOK FAVORABLE FOR THE LATTER PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST
PERIOD ALTHOUGH ITS STILL DIFFICULT TO HIGHLIGHT ONE DAY VS ANOTHER
UNTIL WE GET A LITTLE CLOSER.



&&

.AVIATION...
SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA INCLUDING KPHX...KIWA...AND KSDL...
A SMALL DISTURBANCE MOVING NORTHWARD THROUGH EAST-CENTRAL ARIZONA
EARLY THIS MORNING MAY PRODUCE SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS ROUGHLY BETWEEN
PHX AND SJN UNTIL ABOUT 16Z. CLOUDINESS...BASES AOA 15 KFT
MSL...WILL ALSO BEGIN TO THIN OUT AFT 16Z. MEANWHILE...A LARGER
DISTURBANCE CENTERED OVER NORTHERN BAJA AS OF 12Z MAY LEAD TO SOME
STORM REDEVELOPMENT BY 18Z BUT CONFIDENCE TOO LOW AT THE TAF SITES
TO INSERT TEMPO TSRA.

SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA AND SOUTHWEST ARIZONA INCLUDING KIPL AND KBLH...
A WEATHER DISTURBANCE CENTERED OVER NORTHERN BAJA MAY LEAD TO THE
DEVELOPMENT OF TSTORMS BEFORE 18Z...MOST LIKELY OVER LA PAZ AND
EASTERN RIVERSIDE COUNTIES. CONFIDENCE TOO LOW AT THE TAF SITES TO
INSERT TEMPO TSRA. HOWEVER...KBLH MORE LIKELY TO SEE TSTORMS THAN
KIPL.

AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDED TAFS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...
A BIT OF ADDITIONAL DRYING CAN BE EXPECTED WEDNESDAY WITH LITTLE
CHANGE THURSDAY. STORM CHANCES WILL BE SLIGHT AND WILL BE LIMITED TO
THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA. LATE IN THE WEEK AND
OVER THE WEEKEND...AN INCREASE IN MOISTURE AND ASSOCIATED HUMIDITIES
IS ANTICIPATED AND STORM CHANCES...THOUGH SLIGHT...EXPAND TO THE
LOWER ELEVATIONS. HIGH TEMPERATURES TREND DOWNWARD AS WELL.


&&

.PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

AZ...NONE.

CA...NONE.

&&

$$

VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/PHOENIX

DISCUSSION...MEYERS/LEINS
AVIATION...AJ
FIRE WEATHER...AJ






000
FXUS65 KPSR 281708
AFDPSR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PHOENIX AZ
1005 AM MST MON JUL 28 2014


.SYNOPSIS...
THERE WILL BE A CONTINUED CHANCE OF AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA TODAY...BEFORE DRIER AIR
MOVES INTO THE REGION TUESDAY THROUGH LATE WEEK. STORM CHANCES WILL
INCREASE AGAIN FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND AS MOISTURE MOVES BACK INTO
THE SOUTHWEST UNITED STATES.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
VISIBLE AND WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY CLEARLY INDICATE AN MCV
SPINNING OVER EAST CENTRAL ARIZONA AND A LARGER MORE BROAD UPPER
LEVEL CIRCULATION PROGRESSIVELY MOVING NORTHWARD ACROSS BAJA
CALIFORNIA INTO SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA. BETWEEN THE TWO...A COL REGION
APPEARS TO BE FORMING OVER THE CENTRAL ARIZONA DESERTS. 12Z KPSR
RAOB SHOWS THE LIGHTER MORE VARIABLE WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS COL
IN THE 700-500MB LAYER. THERE IS STILL A DECENT AMOUNT OF MOISTURE
IN PLACE ACROSS THE REGION...AROUND 1.50 INCHES OF PRECIPITABLE
WATER NOTED IN THE KTWC/KPSR SOUNDINGS...AND WITH BOTH CIRCULATIONS
PRESENT TO HELP WITH INITIATING CONVECTION...THERE ARE STILL GROUND
TO HOLD ON TO SLIGHT CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION FOR MANY AREAS OF OUR
CWA TODAY. MADE SOME SLIGHT UPWARD ADJUSTMENTS IN THE NEAR TERM
POPS...ALBEIT REFLECTING SLIGHT CHANCES FOR THE LOWER DESERTS AND
BETTER CHANCE POPS FOR OUR HIGHER TERRAIN OF JTNP AND SOUTHERN GILA
COUNTY FOR THIS AFTERNOON. OVERALL...THE LIGHTER WIND FIELDS WILL
NOT BE FAVORABLE FOR ANY TYPE OF ORGANIZED CONVECTION...BUT ANY
STORM THAT FORMS STILL HAS THE POTENTIAL TO PUSH OUT STRONG WINDS
AND HEAVY RAINFALL. MODELS PROG THESE TWO CIRCULATIONS TO MOVE NORTH
AND EAST AS THE DAY PROGRESSES...LEAVING BEHIND SUBSIDENCE DURING
THE AFTERNOON/PEAK HEATING HOURS. WITH THIS IN MIND...NUDGED POPS
DOWNWARD FOR THIS EVENING...ESPECIALLY OUT WEST ACROSS SOUTHEAST
CALIFORNIA AS ALL MODELS AGREE THAT UPPER LEVEL WINDS WILL BECOME
WESTERLY...AND DRIER...LATER TONIGHT. TEMPERATURES TODAY SHOULD BE
SIMILAR TO THAT SUNDAY AFTERNOON...100-107 DEGREES ACROSS THE LOWER
DESERTS.

TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...A DRAMATIC DECREASE THE AMOUNT OF
CONVECTION ACROSS THE AREA...WITH THE FOCUS FOR ANY PRECIPITATION IN
THE MOUNTAINS EAST OF PHOENIX THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. MEAN
BL MIXING RATIOS DROP TO AROUND 6 G/KG DURING THE MIDDLE PART OF THE
WEEK AND EVEN CLIMO POPS MAY END UP BEING TOO HIGH. WITH DRIER AIR
WORKING INTO THE AREA MID WEEK...TEMPS WILL LIKELY TAKE A RUN INTO
THE 105-109 RANGE ACROSS THE DESERTS. CONSEQUENTLY...THERE SHOULD BE
A SLIGHT DROP-OFF BY THE WEEKEND AS DEEPER MOISTURE MAKES ITS WAY
BACK INTO THE AREA. STILL ABOVE 100 BUT SOMEWHAT LOWER THAN THE MID
WEEK VALUES. MADE SLIGHT REDUCTIONS TO POPS ACROSS THE BOARD FROM
TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY BASED ON LATEST GUIDANCE WITH THE HIGHEST
VALUES DISPLACED WELL EAST OF THE DESERTS. THE MONSOON MOISTURE
WONT BE TERRIBLY FAR AWAY...WINDS PER THE TWO-THREE MOST RECENT
RUNS OF THE EUROPEAN AND GFS BRING INCREASED MIXING RATIOS BACK INTO
THE AREA FRIDAY AND ALMOST CERTAINLY BY THE WEEKEND. PRECIP CHANCES
ONCE AGAIN LOOK FAVORABLE FOR THE LATTER PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST
PERIOD ALTHOUGH ITS STILL DIFFICULT TO HIGHLIGHT ONE DAY VS ANOTHER
UNTIL WE GET A LITTLE CLOSER.



&&

.AVIATION...
SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA INCLUDING KPHX...KIWA...AND KSDL...
A SMALL DISTURBANCE MOVING NORTHWARD THROUGH EAST-CENTRAL ARIZONA
EARLY THIS MORNING MAY PRODUCE SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS ROUGHLY BETWEEN
PHX AND SJN UNTIL ABOUT 16Z. CLOUDINESS...BASES AOA 15 KFT
MSL...WILL ALSO BEGIN TO THIN OUT AFT 16Z. MEANWHILE...A LARGER
DISTURBANCE CENTERED OVER NORTHERN BAJA AS OF 12Z MAY LEAD TO SOME
STORM REDEVELOPMENT BY 18Z BUT CONFIDENCE TOO LOW AT THE TAF SITES
TO INSERT TEMPO TSRA.

SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA AND SOUTHWEST ARIZONA INCLUDING KIPL AND KBLH...
A WEATHER DISTURBANCE CENTERED OVER NORTHERN BAJA MAY LEAD TO THE
DEVELOPMENT OF TSTORMS BEFORE 18Z...MOST LIKELY OVER LA PAZ AND
EASTERN RIVERSIDE COUNTIES. CONFIDENCE TOO LOW AT THE TAF SITES TO
INSERT TEMPO TSRA. HOWEVER...KBLH MORE LIKELY TO SEE TSTORMS THAN
KIPL.

AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDED TAFS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...
A BIT OF ADDITIONAL DRYING CAN BE EXPECTED WEDNESDAY WITH LITTLE
CHANGE THURSDAY. STORM CHANCES WILL BE SLIGHT AND WILL BE LIMITED TO
THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA. LATE IN THE WEEK AND
OVER THE WEEKEND...AN INCREASE IN MOISTURE AND ASSOCIATED HUMIDITIES
IS ANTICIPATED AND STORM CHANCES...THOUGH SLIGHT...EXPAND TO THE
LOWER ELEVATIONS. HIGH TEMPERATURES TREND DOWNWARD AS WELL.


&&

.PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

AZ...NONE.

CA...NONE.

&&

$$

VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/PHOENIX

DISCUSSION...MEYERS/LEINS
AVIATION...AJ
FIRE WEATHER...AJ





000
FXUS65 KFGZ 281653
AFDFGZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ
953 AM MST MON JUL 28 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A MOIST AND UNSTABLE SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL KEEP AN ACTIVE MONSOON
PATTERN OVER NORTHERN ARIZONA TODAY. THUNDERSTORMS WILL HAVE THE
POTENTIAL OF PRODUCING HEAVY RAINFALL...ESPECIALLY ACROSS
NORTHWESTERN ARIZONA. FROM TUESDAY THROUGH THE END OF THE WORK
WEEK...MONSOON MOISTURE DIMINISHES AS HIGH PRESSURE CENTERS OVER
SOUTHERN ARIZONA AND NEW MEXICO...RESULTING IN A DOWNWARD TREND IN
THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
FOR TODAY...GOOD LOW LEVEL MOISTURE REMAINS IN PLACE ACROSS NORTHERN
ARIZONA WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES NEAR AN INCH. MARGINAL
INSTABILITY AND LOW WIND SHEAR WILL REDUCE THE CHANCES FOR SEVERE
STORMS...SO HEAVY RAINFALL RESULTING IN FLASH FLOODING WILL BE THE
PRIMARY THREAT. CLOUD COVER REMAINS ACROSS SIGNIFICANT PORTIONS OF
NORTHERN ARIZONA...WITH THE LEAST CLOUDY SKIES ACROSS YAVAPAI AND
WESTERN COCONINO COUNTIES. AS A RESULT...EXPECT SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TO FORM THERE FIRST...WITH A SLIGHTLY DELAYED
INITIATION ELSEWHERE. IN ADDITION...AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE IS
FORECAST TO MOVE NORTHWARD ALONG THE COLORADO RIVER AND THEN INTO
NORTHWEST AZ. AS A RESULT...A FLASH FLOOD WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED
FOR WESTERN COCONINO COUNTY AND THE YAVAPAI COUNTY MOUNTAINS
THROUGH THIS EVENING.

IN GENERAL...EXPECT STORMS TO FORM OVER HIGH TERRAIN FIRST...THEN
SLOWLY MIGRATE NORTHEASTWARD. THE WILD CARD IS AN MCV CURRENTLY
LOCATED OVER GILA COUNTY. THIS MCV COULD INCREASE SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IN ITS VICINITY...SO WE WILL BE WATCHING
THIS AREA CLOSELY THROUGHOUT THE DAY.

&&

.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION /338 AM MST/...THE REST OF THIS WEEK...DEEP
TROUGHING OVER THE EASTERN U.S. CAUSES THE HIGH PRESSURE CENTER TO
RETROGRADE WESTWARD...CENTERING OVER SOUTHERN AZ/NM. EXPECT A
GRADUAL THINNING OF ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE WITH A LESS FAVORABLE
WESTERLY FLOW IN PLACE...LEADING TO A DOWNWARD TREND IN
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY. THIS LOW GRADE MONSOON PATTERN SHOULD
CONTINUE THROUGH FRIDAY WITH A POSSIBLE UPTICK IN MOISTURE BY NEXT
WEEKEND. TEMPERATURES THE REST OF THE WEEK WILL RUN CLOSE TO AND
SLIGHTLY ABOVE AVERAGE.

&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 18Z PACKAGE...SCT-NMRS SHRA/TSRA WITH ISOLD
+TSRA WILL CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. MVFR VSBY AND WIND GUSTS
UP TO 35KTS PSBL IN THE STRONGER STORMS. AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT
UPDATED FOR AMENDMENTS.

&&

.FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 9 PM MST THIS EVENING FOR AZZ004>008-
015-038.

&&

$$

PUBLIC.........RR
AVIATION.......DB

FOR NORTHERN ARIZONA WEATHER INFORMATION VISIT
WEATHER.GOV/FLAGSTAFF






000
FXUS65 KFGZ 281653
AFDFGZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ
953 AM MST MON JUL 28 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A MOIST AND UNSTABLE SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL KEEP AN ACTIVE MONSOON
PATTERN OVER NORTHERN ARIZONA TODAY. THUNDERSTORMS WILL HAVE THE
POTENTIAL OF PRODUCING HEAVY RAINFALL...ESPECIALLY ACROSS
NORTHWESTERN ARIZONA. FROM TUESDAY THROUGH THE END OF THE WORK
WEEK...MONSOON MOISTURE DIMINISHES AS HIGH PRESSURE CENTERS OVER
SOUTHERN ARIZONA AND NEW MEXICO...RESULTING IN A DOWNWARD TREND IN
THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
FOR TODAY...GOOD LOW LEVEL MOISTURE REMAINS IN PLACE ACROSS NORTHERN
ARIZONA WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES NEAR AN INCH. MARGINAL
INSTABILITY AND LOW WIND SHEAR WILL REDUCE THE CHANCES FOR SEVERE
STORMS...SO HEAVY RAINFALL RESULTING IN FLASH FLOODING WILL BE THE
PRIMARY THREAT. CLOUD COVER REMAINS ACROSS SIGNIFICANT PORTIONS OF
NORTHERN ARIZONA...WITH THE LEAST CLOUDY SKIES ACROSS YAVAPAI AND
WESTERN COCONINO COUNTIES. AS A RESULT...EXPECT SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TO FORM THERE FIRST...WITH A SLIGHTLY DELAYED
INITIATION ELSEWHERE. IN ADDITION...AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE IS
FORECAST TO MOVE NORTHWARD ALONG THE COLORADO RIVER AND THEN INTO
NORTHWEST AZ. AS A RESULT...A FLASH FLOOD WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED
FOR WESTERN COCONINO COUNTY AND THE YAVAPAI COUNTY MOUNTAINS
THROUGH THIS EVENING.

IN GENERAL...EXPECT STORMS TO FORM OVER HIGH TERRAIN FIRST...THEN
SLOWLY MIGRATE NORTHEASTWARD. THE WILD CARD IS AN MCV CURRENTLY
LOCATED OVER GILA COUNTY. THIS MCV COULD INCREASE SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IN ITS VICINITY...SO WE WILL BE WATCHING
THIS AREA CLOSELY THROUGHOUT THE DAY.

&&

.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION /338 AM MST/...THE REST OF THIS WEEK...DEEP
TROUGHING OVER THE EASTERN U.S. CAUSES THE HIGH PRESSURE CENTER TO
RETROGRADE WESTWARD...CENTERING OVER SOUTHERN AZ/NM. EXPECT A
GRADUAL THINNING OF ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE WITH A LESS FAVORABLE
WESTERLY FLOW IN PLACE...LEADING TO A DOWNWARD TREND IN
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY. THIS LOW GRADE MONSOON PATTERN SHOULD
CONTINUE THROUGH FRIDAY WITH A POSSIBLE UPTICK IN MOISTURE BY NEXT
WEEKEND. TEMPERATURES THE REST OF THE WEEK WILL RUN CLOSE TO AND
SLIGHTLY ABOVE AVERAGE.

&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 18Z PACKAGE...SCT-NMRS SHRA/TSRA WITH ISOLD
+TSRA WILL CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. MVFR VSBY AND WIND GUSTS
UP TO 35KTS PSBL IN THE STRONGER STORMS. AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT
UPDATED FOR AMENDMENTS.

&&

.FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 9 PM MST THIS EVENING FOR AZZ004>008-
015-038.

&&

$$

PUBLIC.........RR
AVIATION.......DB

FOR NORTHERN ARIZONA WEATHER INFORMATION VISIT
WEATHER.GOV/FLAGSTAFF






000
FXUS65 KFGZ 281653
AFDFGZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ
953 AM MST MON JUL 28 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A MOIST AND UNSTABLE SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL KEEP AN ACTIVE MONSOON
PATTERN OVER NORTHERN ARIZONA TODAY. THUNDERSTORMS WILL HAVE THE
POTENTIAL OF PRODUCING HEAVY RAINFALL...ESPECIALLY ACROSS
NORTHWESTERN ARIZONA. FROM TUESDAY THROUGH THE END OF THE WORK
WEEK...MONSOON MOISTURE DIMINISHES AS HIGH PRESSURE CENTERS OVER
SOUTHERN ARIZONA AND NEW MEXICO...RESULTING IN A DOWNWARD TREND IN
THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
FOR TODAY...GOOD LOW LEVEL MOISTURE REMAINS IN PLACE ACROSS NORTHERN
ARIZONA WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES NEAR AN INCH. MARGINAL
INSTABILITY AND LOW WIND SHEAR WILL REDUCE THE CHANCES FOR SEVERE
STORMS...SO HEAVY RAINFALL RESULTING IN FLASH FLOODING WILL BE THE
PRIMARY THREAT. CLOUD COVER REMAINS ACROSS SIGNIFICANT PORTIONS OF
NORTHERN ARIZONA...WITH THE LEAST CLOUDY SKIES ACROSS YAVAPAI AND
WESTERN COCONINO COUNTIES. AS A RESULT...EXPECT SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TO FORM THERE FIRST...WITH A SLIGHTLY DELAYED
INITIATION ELSEWHERE. IN ADDITION...AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE IS
FORECAST TO MOVE NORTHWARD ALONG THE COLORADO RIVER AND THEN INTO
NORTHWEST AZ. AS A RESULT...A FLASH FLOOD WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED
FOR WESTERN COCONINO COUNTY AND THE YAVAPAI COUNTY MOUNTAINS
THROUGH THIS EVENING.

IN GENERAL...EXPECT STORMS TO FORM OVER HIGH TERRAIN FIRST...THEN
SLOWLY MIGRATE NORTHEASTWARD. THE WILD CARD IS AN MCV CURRENTLY
LOCATED OVER GILA COUNTY. THIS MCV COULD INCREASE SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IN ITS VICINITY...SO WE WILL BE WATCHING
THIS AREA CLOSELY THROUGHOUT THE DAY.

&&

.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION /338 AM MST/...THE REST OF THIS WEEK...DEEP
TROUGHING OVER THE EASTERN U.S. CAUSES THE HIGH PRESSURE CENTER TO
RETROGRADE WESTWARD...CENTERING OVER SOUTHERN AZ/NM. EXPECT A
GRADUAL THINNING OF ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE WITH A LESS FAVORABLE
WESTERLY FLOW IN PLACE...LEADING TO A DOWNWARD TREND IN
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY. THIS LOW GRADE MONSOON PATTERN SHOULD
CONTINUE THROUGH FRIDAY WITH A POSSIBLE UPTICK IN MOISTURE BY NEXT
WEEKEND. TEMPERATURES THE REST OF THE WEEK WILL RUN CLOSE TO AND
SLIGHTLY ABOVE AVERAGE.

&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 18Z PACKAGE...SCT-NMRS SHRA/TSRA WITH ISOLD
+TSRA WILL CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. MVFR VSBY AND WIND GUSTS
UP TO 35KTS PSBL IN THE STRONGER STORMS. AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT
UPDATED FOR AMENDMENTS.

&&

.FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 9 PM MST THIS EVENING FOR AZZ004>008-
015-038.

&&

$$

PUBLIC.........RR
AVIATION.......DB

FOR NORTHERN ARIZONA WEATHER INFORMATION VISIT
WEATHER.GOV/FLAGSTAFF






000
FXUS65 KFGZ 281653
AFDFGZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ
953 AM MST MON JUL 28 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A MOIST AND UNSTABLE SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL KEEP AN ACTIVE MONSOON
PATTERN OVER NORTHERN ARIZONA TODAY. THUNDERSTORMS WILL HAVE THE
POTENTIAL OF PRODUCING HEAVY RAINFALL...ESPECIALLY ACROSS
NORTHWESTERN ARIZONA. FROM TUESDAY THROUGH THE END OF THE WORK
WEEK...MONSOON MOISTURE DIMINISHES AS HIGH PRESSURE CENTERS OVER
SOUTHERN ARIZONA AND NEW MEXICO...RESULTING IN A DOWNWARD TREND IN
THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
FOR TODAY...GOOD LOW LEVEL MOISTURE REMAINS IN PLACE ACROSS NORTHERN
ARIZONA WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES NEAR AN INCH. MARGINAL
INSTABILITY AND LOW WIND SHEAR WILL REDUCE THE CHANCES FOR SEVERE
STORMS...SO HEAVY RAINFALL RESULTING IN FLASH FLOODING WILL BE THE
PRIMARY THREAT. CLOUD COVER REMAINS ACROSS SIGNIFICANT PORTIONS OF
NORTHERN ARIZONA...WITH THE LEAST CLOUDY SKIES ACROSS YAVAPAI AND
WESTERN COCONINO COUNTIES. AS A RESULT...EXPECT SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TO FORM THERE FIRST...WITH A SLIGHTLY DELAYED
INITIATION ELSEWHERE. IN ADDITION...AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE IS
FORECAST TO MOVE NORTHWARD ALONG THE COLORADO RIVER AND THEN INTO
NORTHWEST AZ. AS A RESULT...A FLASH FLOOD WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED
FOR WESTERN COCONINO COUNTY AND THE YAVAPAI COUNTY MOUNTAINS
THROUGH THIS EVENING.

IN GENERAL...EXPECT STORMS TO FORM OVER HIGH TERRAIN FIRST...THEN
SLOWLY MIGRATE NORTHEASTWARD. THE WILD CARD IS AN MCV CURRENTLY
LOCATED OVER GILA COUNTY. THIS MCV COULD INCREASE SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IN ITS VICINITY...SO WE WILL BE WATCHING
THIS AREA CLOSELY THROUGHOUT THE DAY.

&&

.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION /338 AM MST/...THE REST OF THIS WEEK...DEEP
TROUGHING OVER THE EASTERN U.S. CAUSES THE HIGH PRESSURE CENTER TO
RETROGRADE WESTWARD...CENTERING OVER SOUTHERN AZ/NM. EXPECT A
GRADUAL THINNING OF ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE WITH A LESS FAVORABLE
WESTERLY FLOW IN PLACE...LEADING TO A DOWNWARD TREND IN
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY. THIS LOW GRADE MONSOON PATTERN SHOULD
CONTINUE THROUGH FRIDAY WITH A POSSIBLE UPTICK IN MOISTURE BY NEXT
WEEKEND. TEMPERATURES THE REST OF THE WEEK WILL RUN CLOSE TO AND
SLIGHTLY ABOVE AVERAGE.

&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 18Z PACKAGE...SCT-NMRS SHRA/TSRA WITH ISOLD
+TSRA WILL CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. MVFR VSBY AND WIND GUSTS
UP TO 35KTS PSBL IN THE STRONGER STORMS. AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT
UPDATED FOR AMENDMENTS.

&&

.FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 9 PM MST THIS EVENING FOR AZZ004>008-
015-038.

&&

$$

PUBLIC.........RR
AVIATION.......DB

FOR NORTHERN ARIZONA WEATHER INFORMATION VISIT
WEATHER.GOV/FLAGSTAFF






000
FXUS65 KTWC 281629
AFDTWC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ
915 AM MST MON JUL 28 2014

.SYNOPSIS...WE STILL HAVE ENOUGH MOISTURE IN PLACE FOR A CHANCE OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. SOME STORMS
WILL GENERATE LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL. FEWER STORMS ARE EXPECTED
AROUND MID WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVERHEAD ACCOMPANIED BY
SEVERAL DEGREES OF HEATING BY TUESDAY OR WEDNESDAY. A STRONGER
CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS RETURNS ONCE AGAIN TO END THE WEEK AND TAKE
US INTO NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.DISCUSSION...ANOTHER NIGHT OF WIDESPREAD SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY WITH REMNANT MCV NOW JUST NORTH OF GRAHAM AND GREENLEE
COUNTIES DRIFTING OUT OF OUR AREA. THIS WILL TEND TO RETARD INITIAL
STORM DEVELOPMENT BEHIND THIS FEATURE FOR SEVERAL HOURS. ANOTHER
STRONG COMPLEX SOUTH OF DOUGLAS BUT THE MOST ACTIVE AREA TENDING TO
BE ON THE SOUTHWEST FLANK WITH THE MEAN FLOW. 12Z KTWC SOUNDING HAS
GREAT MOISTURE AT 1.57 INCHES PRECIPITABLE WATER...VERY CONSISTENT
WITH VALUES ON BLENDED SATELLITE ESTIMATES RANGING FROM 1.35 IN FAR
EASTERN AREAS TO 1.7 IN WESTERN AREAS. HOWEVER POOR MID LEVEL WIND
PROFILE FOR DEVELOPING GOOD STORM STRUCTURE AND LIMITED SHEAR. WE
WON`T BE SHUT DOWN BUT COVERAGE WILL PROBABLY BE LESS THAN WE HAD
BEEN ADVERTISING WITH AN EMPHASIS ON AREAS SOUTH AND EAST OF TUCSON.
STORMS WILL BE SLOW MOVERS...TENDING TO PROPAGATE ON OUTFLOWS AND
SLOW NEW DEVELOPMENT INTO MOST FAVORABLE NEAR STORM ENVIRONMENT
POCKETS. WHATEVER STORMS WE DO GET WILL BE VERY WET.

&&



.AVIATION...VALID THRU 29/16Z.
A FEW -TSRA/-SHRA WILL OCCUR MAINLY NEAR THE MOUNTAINS EAST OF KTUS
THIS MORNING...THEN SCATTERED TSRA/SHRA THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS
EVENING. MVFR CONDITIONS WILL OCCUR WITH THE STRONGER TSRA ALONG
WITH WIND GUSTS TO AROUND 45 KTS. CLOUD DECKS WILL GENERALLY BE AT
7-12K FT AGL INTO TONIGHT. SOME CLEARING TUESDAY MORNING ESPECIALLY
FROM KTUS WESTWARD. AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR TAF
AMENDMENTS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL OCCUR THIS AFTERNOON
AND EVENING. EXPECT STRONG...GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH
THE STRONGER STORMS. DRIER CONDITIONS WILL THEN PROVIDE DECREASED
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.
THEREAFTER...SCATTERED MOSTLY AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS
WILL PREVAIL FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY AS DEEPER MOISTURE RETURNS TO THE
AREA. OTHERWISE...NORMAL DIURNAL WIND TRENDS WILL OCCUR WITH
OCCASIONAL GUSTS DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS DUE TO DAYTIME HEATING.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
TUE-THUR...
28/00Z GFS/ECMWF WERE SIMILAR WITH DEPICTING A DRYING TREND AS WLY/
NWLY MID-LEVEL IS PROGGED TO OCCUR. THE LEAST COVERAGE OF SHOWERS/
TSTMS SHOULD OCCUR WED ASSUMING THE GFS/ECMWF SOLUTIONS TO BE
REALITY.

FRI-SUN...
GFS/ECWMF WERE SIMILAR WITH DEPICTING INCREASING MOISTURE ACROSS SE
AZ AS THE UPPER HIGH BECOMES CENTERED NEAR THE FOUR CORNERS REGION.
HAVE NOTED THAT THESE SOLUTIONS HAVE DEPICTED REDUCED QPF/S...
PARTICULARLY THIS WEEKEND...VERSUS GFS/ECMWF SOLUTIONS FROM 24 HOURS
AGO. AT ANY RATE...FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS FAIRLY HIGH THAT DEEPER
MOISTURE WILL LEAD TO SCATTERED MAINLY AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWERS/
TSTMS.

HIGH TEMPS THIS AFTERNOON WILL GENERALLY BE SIMILAR TO TEMPS
ACHIEVED SUN AFTERNOON. A WARMING TREND WILL THEN OCCUR TUE-WED
FOLLOWED BY A MODERATION IN DAYTIME TEMPS BY THIS WEEKEND.

&&

.TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...YOUTUBE...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/TUCSON

MEYER/GLUECK/FRANCIS










000
FXUS65 KTWC 281629
AFDTWC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ
915 AM MST MON JUL 28 2014

.SYNOPSIS...WE STILL HAVE ENOUGH MOISTURE IN PLACE FOR A CHANCE OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. SOME STORMS
WILL GENERATE LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL. FEWER STORMS ARE EXPECTED
AROUND MID WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVERHEAD ACCOMPANIED BY
SEVERAL DEGREES OF HEATING BY TUESDAY OR WEDNESDAY. A STRONGER
CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS RETURNS ONCE AGAIN TO END THE WEEK AND TAKE
US INTO NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.DISCUSSION...ANOTHER NIGHT OF WIDESPREAD SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY WITH REMNANT MCV NOW JUST NORTH OF GRAHAM AND GREENLEE
COUNTIES DRIFTING OUT OF OUR AREA. THIS WILL TEND TO RETARD INITIAL
STORM DEVELOPMENT BEHIND THIS FEATURE FOR SEVERAL HOURS. ANOTHER
STRONG COMPLEX SOUTH OF DOUGLAS BUT THE MOST ACTIVE AREA TENDING TO
BE ON THE SOUTHWEST FLANK WITH THE MEAN FLOW. 12Z KTWC SOUNDING HAS
GREAT MOISTURE AT 1.57 INCHES PRECIPITABLE WATER...VERY CONSISTENT
WITH VALUES ON BLENDED SATELLITE ESTIMATES RANGING FROM 1.35 IN FAR
EASTERN AREAS TO 1.7 IN WESTERN AREAS. HOWEVER POOR MID LEVEL WIND
PROFILE FOR DEVELOPING GOOD STORM STRUCTURE AND LIMITED SHEAR. WE
WON`T BE SHUT DOWN BUT COVERAGE WILL PROBABLY BE LESS THAN WE HAD
BEEN ADVERTISING WITH AN EMPHASIS ON AREAS SOUTH AND EAST OF TUCSON.
STORMS WILL BE SLOW MOVERS...TENDING TO PROPAGATE ON OUTFLOWS AND
SLOW NEW DEVELOPMENT INTO MOST FAVORABLE NEAR STORM ENVIRONMENT
POCKETS. WHATEVER STORMS WE DO GET WILL BE VERY WET.

&&



.AVIATION...VALID THRU 29/16Z.
A FEW -TSRA/-SHRA WILL OCCUR MAINLY NEAR THE MOUNTAINS EAST OF KTUS
THIS MORNING...THEN SCATTERED TSRA/SHRA THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS
EVENING. MVFR CONDITIONS WILL OCCUR WITH THE STRONGER TSRA ALONG
WITH WIND GUSTS TO AROUND 45 KTS. CLOUD DECKS WILL GENERALLY BE AT
7-12K FT AGL INTO TONIGHT. SOME CLEARING TUESDAY MORNING ESPECIALLY
FROM KTUS WESTWARD. AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR TAF
AMENDMENTS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL OCCUR THIS AFTERNOON
AND EVENING. EXPECT STRONG...GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH
THE STRONGER STORMS. DRIER CONDITIONS WILL THEN PROVIDE DECREASED
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.
THEREAFTER...SCATTERED MOSTLY AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS
WILL PREVAIL FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY AS DEEPER MOISTURE RETURNS TO THE
AREA. OTHERWISE...NORMAL DIURNAL WIND TRENDS WILL OCCUR WITH
OCCASIONAL GUSTS DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS DUE TO DAYTIME HEATING.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
TUE-THUR...
28/00Z GFS/ECMWF WERE SIMILAR WITH DEPICTING A DRYING TREND AS WLY/
NWLY MID-LEVEL IS PROGGED TO OCCUR. THE LEAST COVERAGE OF SHOWERS/
TSTMS SHOULD OCCUR WED ASSUMING THE GFS/ECMWF SOLUTIONS TO BE
REALITY.

FRI-SUN...
GFS/ECWMF WERE SIMILAR WITH DEPICTING INCREASING MOISTURE ACROSS SE
AZ AS THE UPPER HIGH BECOMES CENTERED NEAR THE FOUR CORNERS REGION.
HAVE NOTED THAT THESE SOLUTIONS HAVE DEPICTED REDUCED QPF/S...
PARTICULARLY THIS WEEKEND...VERSUS GFS/ECMWF SOLUTIONS FROM 24 HOURS
AGO. AT ANY RATE...FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS FAIRLY HIGH THAT DEEPER
MOISTURE WILL LEAD TO SCATTERED MAINLY AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWERS/
TSTMS.

HIGH TEMPS THIS AFTERNOON WILL GENERALLY BE SIMILAR TO TEMPS
ACHIEVED SUN AFTERNOON. A WARMING TREND WILL THEN OCCUR TUE-WED
FOLLOWED BY A MODERATION IN DAYTIME TEMPS BY THIS WEEKEND.

&&

.TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...YOUTUBE...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/TUCSON

MEYER/GLUECK/FRANCIS










000
FXUS65 KTWC 281629
AFDTWC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ
915 AM MST MON JUL 28 2014

.SYNOPSIS...WE STILL HAVE ENOUGH MOISTURE IN PLACE FOR A CHANCE OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. SOME STORMS
WILL GENERATE LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL. FEWER STORMS ARE EXPECTED
AROUND MID WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVERHEAD ACCOMPANIED BY
SEVERAL DEGREES OF HEATING BY TUESDAY OR WEDNESDAY. A STRONGER
CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS RETURNS ONCE AGAIN TO END THE WEEK AND TAKE
US INTO NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.DISCUSSION...ANOTHER NIGHT OF WIDESPREAD SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY WITH REMNANT MCV NOW JUST NORTH OF GRAHAM AND GREENLEE
COUNTIES DRIFTING OUT OF OUR AREA. THIS WILL TEND TO RETARD INITIAL
STORM DEVELOPMENT BEHIND THIS FEATURE FOR SEVERAL HOURS. ANOTHER
STRONG COMPLEX SOUTH OF DOUGLAS BUT THE MOST ACTIVE AREA TENDING TO
BE ON THE SOUTHWEST FLANK WITH THE MEAN FLOW. 12Z KTWC SOUNDING HAS
GREAT MOISTURE AT 1.57 INCHES PRECIPITABLE WATER...VERY CONSISTENT
WITH VALUES ON BLENDED SATELLITE ESTIMATES RANGING FROM 1.35 IN FAR
EASTERN AREAS TO 1.7 IN WESTERN AREAS. HOWEVER POOR MID LEVEL WIND
PROFILE FOR DEVELOPING GOOD STORM STRUCTURE AND LIMITED SHEAR. WE
WON`T BE SHUT DOWN BUT COVERAGE WILL PROBABLY BE LESS THAN WE HAD
BEEN ADVERTISING WITH AN EMPHASIS ON AREAS SOUTH AND EAST OF TUCSON.
STORMS WILL BE SLOW MOVERS...TENDING TO PROPAGATE ON OUTFLOWS AND
SLOW NEW DEVELOPMENT INTO MOST FAVORABLE NEAR STORM ENVIRONMENT
POCKETS. WHATEVER STORMS WE DO GET WILL BE VERY WET.

&&



.AVIATION...VALID THRU 29/16Z.
A FEW -TSRA/-SHRA WILL OCCUR MAINLY NEAR THE MOUNTAINS EAST OF KTUS
THIS MORNING...THEN SCATTERED TSRA/SHRA THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS
EVENING. MVFR CONDITIONS WILL OCCUR WITH THE STRONGER TSRA ALONG
WITH WIND GUSTS TO AROUND 45 KTS. CLOUD DECKS WILL GENERALLY BE AT
7-12K FT AGL INTO TONIGHT. SOME CLEARING TUESDAY MORNING ESPECIALLY
FROM KTUS WESTWARD. AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR TAF
AMENDMENTS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL OCCUR THIS AFTERNOON
AND EVENING. EXPECT STRONG...GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH
THE STRONGER STORMS. DRIER CONDITIONS WILL THEN PROVIDE DECREASED
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.
THEREAFTER...SCATTERED MOSTLY AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS
WILL PREVAIL FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY AS DEEPER MOISTURE RETURNS TO THE
AREA. OTHERWISE...NORMAL DIURNAL WIND TRENDS WILL OCCUR WITH
OCCASIONAL GUSTS DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS DUE TO DAYTIME HEATING.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
TUE-THUR...
28/00Z GFS/ECMWF WERE SIMILAR WITH DEPICTING A DRYING TREND AS WLY/
NWLY MID-LEVEL IS PROGGED TO OCCUR. THE LEAST COVERAGE OF SHOWERS/
TSTMS SHOULD OCCUR WED ASSUMING THE GFS/ECMWF SOLUTIONS TO BE
REALITY.

FRI-SUN...
GFS/ECWMF WERE SIMILAR WITH DEPICTING INCREASING MOISTURE ACROSS SE
AZ AS THE UPPER HIGH BECOMES CENTERED NEAR THE FOUR CORNERS REGION.
HAVE NOTED THAT THESE SOLUTIONS HAVE DEPICTED REDUCED QPF/S...
PARTICULARLY THIS WEEKEND...VERSUS GFS/ECMWF SOLUTIONS FROM 24 HOURS
AGO. AT ANY RATE...FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS FAIRLY HIGH THAT DEEPER
MOISTURE WILL LEAD TO SCATTERED MAINLY AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWERS/
TSTMS.

HIGH TEMPS THIS AFTERNOON WILL GENERALLY BE SIMILAR TO TEMPS
ACHIEVED SUN AFTERNOON. A WARMING TREND WILL THEN OCCUR TUE-WED
FOLLOWED BY A MODERATION IN DAYTIME TEMPS BY THIS WEEKEND.

&&

.TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...YOUTUBE...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/TUCSON

MEYER/GLUECK/FRANCIS










000
FXUS65 KTWC 281629
AFDTWC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ
915 AM MST MON JUL 28 2014

.SYNOPSIS...WE STILL HAVE ENOUGH MOISTURE IN PLACE FOR A CHANCE OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. SOME STORMS
WILL GENERATE LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL. FEWER STORMS ARE EXPECTED
AROUND MID WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVERHEAD ACCOMPANIED BY
SEVERAL DEGREES OF HEATING BY TUESDAY OR WEDNESDAY. A STRONGER
CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS RETURNS ONCE AGAIN TO END THE WEEK AND TAKE
US INTO NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.DISCUSSION...ANOTHER NIGHT OF WIDESPREAD SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY WITH REMNANT MCV NOW JUST NORTH OF GRAHAM AND GREENLEE
COUNTIES DRIFTING OUT OF OUR AREA. THIS WILL TEND TO RETARD INITIAL
STORM DEVELOPMENT BEHIND THIS FEATURE FOR SEVERAL HOURS. ANOTHER
STRONG COMPLEX SOUTH OF DOUGLAS BUT THE MOST ACTIVE AREA TENDING TO
BE ON THE SOUTHWEST FLANK WITH THE MEAN FLOW. 12Z KTWC SOUNDING HAS
GREAT MOISTURE AT 1.57 INCHES PRECIPITABLE WATER...VERY CONSISTENT
WITH VALUES ON BLENDED SATELLITE ESTIMATES RANGING FROM 1.35 IN FAR
EASTERN AREAS TO 1.7 IN WESTERN AREAS. HOWEVER POOR MID LEVEL WIND
PROFILE FOR DEVELOPING GOOD STORM STRUCTURE AND LIMITED SHEAR. WE
WON`T BE SHUT DOWN BUT COVERAGE WILL PROBABLY BE LESS THAN WE HAD
BEEN ADVERTISING WITH AN EMPHASIS ON AREAS SOUTH AND EAST OF TUCSON.
STORMS WILL BE SLOW MOVERS...TENDING TO PROPAGATE ON OUTFLOWS AND
SLOW NEW DEVELOPMENT INTO MOST FAVORABLE NEAR STORM ENVIRONMENT
POCKETS. WHATEVER STORMS WE DO GET WILL BE VERY WET.

&&



.AVIATION...VALID THRU 29/16Z.
A FEW -TSRA/-SHRA WILL OCCUR MAINLY NEAR THE MOUNTAINS EAST OF KTUS
THIS MORNING...THEN SCATTERED TSRA/SHRA THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS
EVENING. MVFR CONDITIONS WILL OCCUR WITH THE STRONGER TSRA ALONG
WITH WIND GUSTS TO AROUND 45 KTS. CLOUD DECKS WILL GENERALLY BE AT
7-12K FT AGL INTO TONIGHT. SOME CLEARING TUESDAY MORNING ESPECIALLY
FROM KTUS WESTWARD. AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR TAF
AMENDMENTS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL OCCUR THIS AFTERNOON
AND EVENING. EXPECT STRONG...GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH
THE STRONGER STORMS. DRIER CONDITIONS WILL THEN PROVIDE DECREASED
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.
THEREAFTER...SCATTERED MOSTLY AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS
WILL PREVAIL FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY AS DEEPER MOISTURE RETURNS TO THE
AREA. OTHERWISE...NORMAL DIURNAL WIND TRENDS WILL OCCUR WITH
OCCASIONAL GUSTS DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS DUE TO DAYTIME HEATING.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
TUE-THUR...
28/00Z GFS/ECMWF WERE SIMILAR WITH DEPICTING A DRYING TREND AS WLY/
NWLY MID-LEVEL IS PROGGED TO OCCUR. THE LEAST COVERAGE OF SHOWERS/
TSTMS SHOULD OCCUR WED ASSUMING THE GFS/ECMWF SOLUTIONS TO BE
REALITY.

FRI-SUN...
GFS/ECWMF WERE SIMILAR WITH DEPICTING INCREASING MOISTURE ACROSS SE
AZ AS THE UPPER HIGH BECOMES CENTERED NEAR THE FOUR CORNERS REGION.
HAVE NOTED THAT THESE SOLUTIONS HAVE DEPICTED REDUCED QPF/S...
PARTICULARLY THIS WEEKEND...VERSUS GFS/ECMWF SOLUTIONS FROM 24 HOURS
AGO. AT ANY RATE...FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS FAIRLY HIGH THAT DEEPER
MOISTURE WILL LEAD TO SCATTERED MAINLY AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWERS/
TSTMS.

HIGH TEMPS THIS AFTERNOON WILL GENERALLY BE SIMILAR TO TEMPS
ACHIEVED SUN AFTERNOON. A WARMING TREND WILL THEN OCCUR TUE-WED
FOLLOWED BY A MODERATION IN DAYTIME TEMPS BY THIS WEEKEND.

&&

.TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...YOUTUBE...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/TUCSON

MEYER/GLUECK/FRANCIS










000
FXUS65 KTWC 281624
AFDTWC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ
915 AM MST MON JUL 28 2014

.SYNOPSIS...WE STILL HAVE ENOUGH MOISTURE IN PLACE FOR A CHANCE OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. SOME STORMS
WILL GENERATE LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL. FEWER STORMS ARE EXPECTED
AROUND MID WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVERHEAD ACCOMPANIED BY
SEVERAL DEGREES OF HEATING BY TUESDAY OR WEDNESDAY. A STRONGER
CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS RETURNS ONCE AGAIN TO END THE WEEK AND TAKE
US INTO NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.DISCUSSION...ANOTHER NIGHT OF WIDESPREAD SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY WITH REMNANT MCV NOT JUST NORTH OF GRAHAM AND GREENLEE
COUNTIES DRIFTING OUT OF OUR AREA. THIS WILL TEND TO RETARD INITIAL
STORM DEVELOPMENT BEHIND THIS FEATURE FOR SEVERAL HOURS. ANOTHER
STRONG COMPLEX SOUTH OF DOUGLAS BUT THE MOST ACTIVE AREA TENDING TO
BE ON THE SOUTHWEST FLANK WITH THE MEAN FLOW. 12Z KTWC SOUNDING HAS
GREAT MOISTURE AT 1.57 INCHES PRECIPITABLE WATER...VERY CONSISTENT
WITH VALUES ON BLENDED SATELLITE ESTIMATES RANGING FROM 1.35 IN FAR
EASTERN AREAS TO 1.7 IN WESTERN AREAS. HOWEVER POOR MID LEVEL WIND
PROFILE FOR DEVELOPING GOOD STORM STRUCTURE AND LIMITED SHEAR. WE
WON`T BE SHUT DOWN BUT COVERAGE WILL PROBABLY BE LESS THAN WE HAD
BEEN ADVERTISING WITH AN EMPHASIS ON AREAS SOUTH AND EAST OF TUCSON.
STORMS WILL BE SLOW MOVERS...TENDING TO PROPAGATE ON OUTFLOWS AND
SLOW NEW DEVELOPMENT INTO MOST FAVORABLE NEAR STORM ENVIRONMENT
POCKETS. WHATEVER STORMS WE DO GET WILL BE VERY WET.

&&



.AVIATION...VALID THRU 29/16Z.
A FEW -TSRA/-SHRA WILL OCCUR MAINLY NEAR THE MOUNTAINS EAST OF KTUS
THIS MORNING...THEN SCATTERED TSRA/SHRA THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS
EVENING. MVFR CONDITIONS WILL OCCUR WITH THE STRONGER TSRA ALONG
WITH WIND GUSTS TO AROUND 45 KTS. CLOUD DECKS WILL GENERALLY BE AT
7-12K FT AGL INTO TONIGHT. SOME CLEARING TUESDAY MORNING ESPECIALLY
FROM KTUS WESTWARD. AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR TAF
AMENDMENTS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL OCCUR THIS AFTERNOON
AND EVENING. EXPECT STRONG...GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH
THE STRONGER STORMS. DRIER CONDITIONS WILL THEN PROVIDE DECREASED
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.
THEREAFTER...SCATTERED MOSTLY AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS
WILL PREVAIL FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY AS DEEPER MOISTURE RETURNS TO THE
AREA. OTHERWISE...NORMAL DIURNAL WIND TRENDS WILL OCCUR WITH
OCCASIONAL GUSTS DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS DUE TO DAYTIME HEATING.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
TUE-THUR...
28/00Z GFS/ECMWF WERE SIMILAR WITH DEPICTING A DRYING TREND AS WLY/
NWLY MID-LEVEL IS PROGGED TO OCCUR. THE LEAST COVERAGE OF SHOWERS/
TSTMS SHOULD OCCUR WED ASSUMING THE GFS/ECMWF SOLUTIONS TO BE
REALITY.

FRI-SUN...
GFS/ECWMF WERE SIMILAR WITH DEPICTING INCREASING MOISTURE ACROSS SE
AZ AS THE UPPER HIGH BECOMES CENTERED NEAR THE FOUR CORNERS REGION.
HAVE NOTED THAT THESE SOLUTIONS HAVE DEPICTED REDUCED QPF/S...
PARTICULARLY THIS WEEKEND...VERSUS GFS/ECMWF SOLUTIONS FROM 24 HOURS
AGO. AT ANY RATE...FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS FAIRLY HIGH THAT DEEPER
MOISTURE WILL LEAD TO SCATTERED MAINLY AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWERS/
TSTMS.

HIGH TEMPS THIS AFTERNOON WILL GENERALLY BE SIMILAR TO TEMPS
ACHIEVED SUN AFTERNOON. A WARMING TREND WILL THEN OCCUR TUE-WED
FOLLOWED BY A MODERATION IN DAYTIME TEMPS BY THIS WEEKEND.

&&

.TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

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MEYER/GLUECK/FRANCIS






000
FXUS65 KTWC 281624
AFDTWC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ
915 AM MST MON JUL 28 2014

.SYNOPSIS...WE STILL HAVE ENOUGH MOISTURE IN PLACE FOR A CHANCE OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. SOME STORMS
WILL GENERATE LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL. FEWER STORMS ARE EXPECTED
AROUND MID WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVERHEAD ACCOMPANIED BY
SEVERAL DEGREES OF HEATING BY TUESDAY OR WEDNESDAY. A STRONGER
CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS RETURNS ONCE AGAIN TO END THE WEEK AND TAKE
US INTO NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.DISCUSSION...ANOTHER NIGHT OF WIDESPREAD SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY WITH REMNANT MCV NOT JUST NORTH OF GRAHAM AND GREENLEE
COUNTIES DRIFTING OUT OF OUR AREA. THIS WILL TEND TO RETARD INITIAL
STORM DEVELOPMENT BEHIND THIS FEATURE FOR SEVERAL HOURS. ANOTHER
STRONG COMPLEX SOUTH OF DOUGLAS BUT THE MOST ACTIVE AREA TENDING TO
BE ON THE SOUTHWEST FLANK WITH THE MEAN FLOW. 12Z KTWC SOUNDING HAS
GREAT MOISTURE AT 1.57 INCHES PRECIPITABLE WATER...VERY CONSISTENT
WITH VALUES ON BLENDED SATELLITE ESTIMATES RANGING FROM 1.35 IN FAR
EASTERN AREAS TO 1.7 IN WESTERN AREAS. HOWEVER POOR MID LEVEL WIND
PROFILE FOR DEVELOPING GOOD STORM STRUCTURE AND LIMITED SHEAR. WE
WON`T BE SHUT DOWN BUT COVERAGE WILL PROBABLY BE LESS THAN WE HAD
BEEN ADVERTISING WITH AN EMPHASIS ON AREAS SOUTH AND EAST OF TUCSON.
STORMS WILL BE SLOW MOVERS...TENDING TO PROPAGATE ON OUTFLOWS AND
SLOW NEW DEVELOPMENT INTO MOST FAVORABLE NEAR STORM ENVIRONMENT
POCKETS. WHATEVER STORMS WE DO GET WILL BE VERY WET.

&&



.AVIATION...VALID THRU 29/16Z.
A FEW -TSRA/-SHRA WILL OCCUR MAINLY NEAR THE MOUNTAINS EAST OF KTUS
THIS MORNING...THEN SCATTERED TSRA/SHRA THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS
EVENING. MVFR CONDITIONS WILL OCCUR WITH THE STRONGER TSRA ALONG
WITH WIND GUSTS TO AROUND 45 KTS. CLOUD DECKS WILL GENERALLY BE AT
7-12K FT AGL INTO TONIGHT. SOME CLEARING TUESDAY MORNING ESPECIALLY
FROM KTUS WESTWARD. AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR TAF
AMENDMENTS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL OCCUR THIS AFTERNOON
AND EVENING. EXPECT STRONG...GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH
THE STRONGER STORMS. DRIER CONDITIONS WILL THEN PROVIDE DECREASED
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.
THEREAFTER...SCATTERED MOSTLY AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS
WILL PREVAIL FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY AS DEEPER MOISTURE RETURNS TO THE
AREA. OTHERWISE...NORMAL DIURNAL WIND TRENDS WILL OCCUR WITH
OCCASIONAL GUSTS DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS DUE TO DAYTIME HEATING.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
TUE-THUR...
28/00Z GFS/ECMWF WERE SIMILAR WITH DEPICTING A DRYING TREND AS WLY/
NWLY MID-LEVEL IS PROGGED TO OCCUR. THE LEAST COVERAGE OF SHOWERS/
TSTMS SHOULD OCCUR WED ASSUMING THE GFS/ECMWF SOLUTIONS TO BE
REALITY.

FRI-SUN...
GFS/ECWMF WERE SIMILAR WITH DEPICTING INCREASING MOISTURE ACROSS SE
AZ AS THE UPPER HIGH BECOMES CENTERED NEAR THE FOUR CORNERS REGION.
HAVE NOTED THAT THESE SOLUTIONS HAVE DEPICTED REDUCED QPF/S...
PARTICULARLY THIS WEEKEND...VERSUS GFS/ECMWF SOLUTIONS FROM 24 HOURS
AGO. AT ANY RATE...FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS FAIRLY HIGH THAT DEEPER
MOISTURE WILL LEAD TO SCATTERED MAINLY AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWERS/
TSTMS.

HIGH TEMPS THIS AFTERNOON WILL GENERALLY BE SIMILAR TO TEMPS
ACHIEVED SUN AFTERNOON. A WARMING TREND WILL THEN OCCUR TUE-WED
FOLLOWED BY A MODERATION IN DAYTIME TEMPS BY THIS WEEKEND.

&&

.TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

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MEYER/GLUECK/FRANCIS







000
FXUS65 KPSR 281225 AAA
AFDPSR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PHOENIX AZ
525 AM MST MON JUL 28 2014

.UPDATE...
UPDATED AVIATION AND FIRE WEATHER SECTIONS.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
THERE WILL BE A CONTINUED CHANCE OF AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE REGION TODAY...BEFORE DRIER AIR MOVES INTO
THE REGION TUESDAY THROUGH LATE WEEK. STORM CHANCES WILL INCREASE
AGAIN FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND AS MOISTURE MOVES BACK INTO THE
REGION.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
MUCH QUIETER WEATHER ACROSS THE REGION THIS MORNING COMPARED TO
SUNDAY MORNING...AS ONLY A FEW LINGERING SHOWERS WERE NOTED ON RADAR
ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF ARIZONA. RADAR MOSAIC INDICATES THE
PRESENCE OF AN MCV OVER GILA COUNTY WHILE WATER VAPOR IMAGERY
CONTINUES TO REVEAL A LARGER UPPER LEVEL CIRCULATION OVER NORTHERN
BAJA CALIFORNIA. THERE IS OBVIOUSLY STILL SOME ENERGY IN THE
ATMOSPHERE THIS MORNING AS SHOWERS CONTINUE TO FORM AND DISSIPATE
ALONG OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES AS OF 08Z...HOWEVER GIVEN HOW SHORT LIVED
THESE STORMS ARE /INDICATING WEAK MUCAPES ACROSS THE AREA/...NOT
EXPECTING WIDESPREAD CONVECTION TO DEVELOP LIKE WE SAW EARLY SUNDAY
MORNING.

AS IS TYPICAL FOR THE MONSOON...ITS ANOTHER COMPLICATED SETUP FOR
TODAY AS THERE IS A DECENT AMOUNT OF MOISTURE IN PLACE ACROSS THE
REGION WITH THE TWO AFOREMENTIONED CIRCULATIONS IN THE NEIGHBORHOOD
TO SERVE AS TRIGGERS. HOWEVER...THE BIGGEST MITIGATING FACTOR IS
THAT BOTH CIRCULATIONS WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA RELATIVELY EARLY
IN THE DAY...LEAVING BEHIND SUBSIDENCE DURING THE AFTERNOON/PEAK
HEATING HOURS. ALSO...ALL GUIDANCE INDICATES WINDS IN THE 700-500MB
LAYER WILL BE RELATIVELY LIGHT /10KTS OR LESS/ FROM PHOENIX EASTWARD
WHICH IS CERTAINLY UNFAVORABLE FOR ORGANIZED CONVECTION. SOMEWHAT
STRONGER WINDS WILL BE IN PLACE FROM YUMA WESTWARD TO THE COASTAL
MOUNTAINS WHICH LEADS ME TO BELIEVE OUR WESTERN LOCATIONS MAY SEE
ACTIVITY TODAY AS THE UPPER LEVEL BAJA CIRCULATION MOVES OVERHEAD.
ONE FACTOR THAT COULD FAVOR STORMS ACROSS PHOENIX TODAY...THE
REMNANT CONVECTION PRESENTLY OVER SOUTHERN ARIZONA WILL LIKELY SPAWN
AN MCV LATER THIS MORNING WHICH COULD SERVE AS A TRIGGER THIS
AFTERNOON. GOING TO STICK WITH THE IDEA OF SLIGHTLY HIGHER THAN
CLIMO POPS FOR TODAY AND TONIGHT GIVEN 3 POSSIBLE TRIGGERS IN THE
AREA...BUT AM LEANING TOWARD IT BEING A DOWN DAY ACROSS THE PHOENIX
AREA GIVEN WEAK WINDS ALOFT.

ALL MODELS AGREE THAT UPPER LEVEL WINDS WILL BECOME WESTERLY ON
TUESDAY WHICH WILL DRAMATICALLY DECREASE THE AMOUNT OF CONVECTION
ACROSS THE AREA AND RE-ORIENT MOST OF IT INTO THE MOUNTAINS EAST OF
PHOENIX. MEAN BL MIXING RATIOS DROP TO AROUND 6 G/KG DURING THE
MIDDLE PART OF THE WEEK AND EVEN CLIMO POPS MAY END UP BEING TOO
HIGH. MADE SLIGHT REDUCTIONS TO POPS ACROSS THE BOARD FROM TUESDAY
THROUGH THURSDAY BASED ON LATEST GUIDANCE WITH THE HIGHEST VALUES
DISPLACED WELL EAST OF THE DESERTS. THE MONSOON MOISTURE WONT BE
TERRIBLY FAR AWAY...WINDS PER THE TWO-THREE MOST RECENT RUNS OF THE
EUROPEAN AND GFS BRING INCREASED MIXING RATIOS BACK INTO THE AREA
FRIDAY AND ALMOST CERTAINLY BY THE WEEKEND. PRECIP CHANCES ONCE
AGAIN LOOK FAVORABLE FOR THE LATTER PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST PERIOD
ALTHOUGH ITS STILL DIFFICULT TO HIGHLIGHT ONE DAY VS ANOTHER UNTIL
WE GET A LITTLE CLOSER.

AS FOR TEMPERATURES TODAY...EXPECTING SIMILAR READINGS AS SUNDAY
GIVEN A CLOUDY START TO THE MORNING WITH HIGHS VERY CLOSE TO NORMAL
THIS AFTERNOON. WITH DRIER AIR WORKING INTO THE AREA MID
WEEK...TEMPS WILL LIKELY TAKE A RUN INTO THE 105-109 RANGE ACROSS
THE DESERTS. CONSEQUENTLY...THERE SHOULD BE A SLIGHT DROP-OFF BY THE
WEEKEND AS DEEPER MOISTURE MAKES ITS WAY BACK INTO THE AREA. STILL
ABOVE 100 BUT SOMEWHAT LOWER THAN THE MID WEEK VALUES.

&&

.AVIATION...
SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA INCLUDING KPHX...KIWA...AND KSDL...
A SMALL DISTURBANCE MOVING NORTHWARD THROUGH EAST-CENTRAL ARIZONA
EARLY THIS MORNING MAY PRODUCE SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS ROUGHLY BETWEEN
PHX AND SJN UNTIL ABOUT 16Z. CLOUDINESS...BASES AOA 15 KFT
MSL...WILL ALSO BEGIN TO THIN OUT AFT 16Z. MEANWHILE...A LARGER
DISTURBANCE CENTERED OVER NORTHERN BAJA AS OF 12Z MAY LEAD TO SOME
STORM REDEVELOPMENT BY 18Z BUT CONFIDENCE TOO LOW AT THE TAF SITES
TO INSERT TEMPO TSRA.

SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA AND SOUTHWEST ARIZONA INCLUDING KIPL AND KBLH...
A WEATHER DISTURBANCE CENTERED OVER NORTHERN BAJA MAY LEAD TO THE
DEVELOPMENT OF TSTORMS BEFORE 18Z...MOST LIKELY OVER LA PAZ AND
EASTERN RIVERSIDE COUNTIES. CONFIDENCE TOO LOW AT THE TAF SITES TO
INSERT TEMPO TSRA. HOWEVER...KBLH MORE LIKELY TO SEE TSTORMS THAN
KIPL.

AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDED TAFS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...
A BIT OF ADDITIONAL DRYING CAN BE EXPECTED WEDNESDAY WITH LITTLE
CHANGE THURSDAY. STORM CHANCES WILL BE SLIGHT AND WILL BE LIMITED TO
THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA. LATE IN THE WEEK AND
OVER THE WEEKEND...AN INCREASE IN MOISTURE AND ASSOCIATED HUMIDITIES
IS ANTICIPATED AND STORM CHANCES...THOUGH SLIGHT...EXPAND TO THE
LOWER ELEVATIONS. HIGH TEMPERATURES TREND DOWNWARD AS WELL.


&&

.PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

AZ...NONE.

CA...NONE.

&&

$$

VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/PHOENIX

DISCUSSION...LEINS
AVIATION...AJ
FIRE WEATHER...AJ






000
FXUS65 KPSR 281225 AAA
AFDPSR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PHOENIX AZ
525 AM MST MON JUL 28 2014

.UPDATE...
UPDATED AVIATION AND FIRE WEATHER SECTIONS.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
THERE WILL BE A CONTINUED CHANCE OF AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE REGION TODAY...BEFORE DRIER AIR MOVES INTO
THE REGION TUESDAY THROUGH LATE WEEK. STORM CHANCES WILL INCREASE
AGAIN FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND AS MOISTURE MOVES BACK INTO THE
REGION.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
MUCH QUIETER WEATHER ACROSS THE REGION THIS MORNING COMPARED TO
SUNDAY MORNING...AS ONLY A FEW LINGERING SHOWERS WERE NOTED ON RADAR
ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF ARIZONA. RADAR MOSAIC INDICATES THE
PRESENCE OF AN MCV OVER GILA COUNTY WHILE WATER VAPOR IMAGERY
CONTINUES TO REVEAL A LARGER UPPER LEVEL CIRCULATION OVER NORTHERN
BAJA CALIFORNIA. THERE IS OBVIOUSLY STILL SOME ENERGY IN THE
ATMOSPHERE THIS MORNING AS SHOWERS CONTINUE TO FORM AND DISSIPATE
ALONG OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES AS OF 08Z...HOWEVER GIVEN HOW SHORT LIVED
THESE STORMS ARE /INDICATING WEAK MUCAPES ACROSS THE AREA/...NOT
EXPECTING WIDESPREAD CONVECTION TO DEVELOP LIKE WE SAW EARLY SUNDAY
MORNING.

AS IS TYPICAL FOR THE MONSOON...ITS ANOTHER COMPLICATED SETUP FOR
TODAY AS THERE IS A DECENT AMOUNT OF MOISTURE IN PLACE ACROSS THE
REGION WITH THE TWO AFOREMENTIONED CIRCULATIONS IN THE NEIGHBORHOOD
TO SERVE AS TRIGGERS. HOWEVER...THE BIGGEST MITIGATING FACTOR IS
THAT BOTH CIRCULATIONS WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA RELATIVELY EARLY
IN THE DAY...LEAVING BEHIND SUBSIDENCE DURING THE AFTERNOON/PEAK
HEATING HOURS. ALSO...ALL GUIDANCE INDICATES WINDS IN THE 700-500MB
LAYER WILL BE RELATIVELY LIGHT /10KTS OR LESS/ FROM PHOENIX EASTWARD
WHICH IS CERTAINLY UNFAVORABLE FOR ORGANIZED CONVECTION. SOMEWHAT
STRONGER WINDS WILL BE IN PLACE FROM YUMA WESTWARD TO THE COASTAL
MOUNTAINS WHICH LEADS ME TO BELIEVE OUR WESTERN LOCATIONS MAY SEE
ACTIVITY TODAY AS THE UPPER LEVEL BAJA CIRCULATION MOVES OVERHEAD.
ONE FACTOR THAT COULD FAVOR STORMS ACROSS PHOENIX TODAY...THE
REMNANT CONVECTION PRESENTLY OVER SOUTHERN ARIZONA WILL LIKELY SPAWN
AN MCV LATER THIS MORNING WHICH COULD SERVE AS A TRIGGER THIS
AFTERNOON. GOING TO STICK WITH THE IDEA OF SLIGHTLY HIGHER THAN
CLIMO POPS FOR TODAY AND TONIGHT GIVEN 3 POSSIBLE TRIGGERS IN THE
AREA...BUT AM LEANING TOWARD IT BEING A DOWN DAY ACROSS THE PHOENIX
AREA GIVEN WEAK WINDS ALOFT.

ALL MODELS AGREE THAT UPPER LEVEL WINDS WILL BECOME WESTERLY ON
TUESDAY WHICH WILL DRAMATICALLY DECREASE THE AMOUNT OF CONVECTION
ACROSS THE AREA AND RE-ORIENT MOST OF IT INTO THE MOUNTAINS EAST OF
PHOENIX. MEAN BL MIXING RATIOS DROP TO AROUND 6 G/KG DURING THE
MIDDLE PART OF THE WEEK AND EVEN CLIMO POPS MAY END UP BEING TOO
HIGH. MADE SLIGHT REDUCTIONS TO POPS ACROSS THE BOARD FROM TUESDAY
THROUGH THURSDAY BASED ON LATEST GUIDANCE WITH THE HIGHEST VALUES
DISPLACED WELL EAST OF THE DESERTS. THE MONSOON MOISTURE WONT BE
TERRIBLY FAR AWAY...WINDS PER THE TWO-THREE MOST RECENT RUNS OF THE
EUROPEAN AND GFS BRING INCREASED MIXING RATIOS BACK INTO THE AREA
FRIDAY AND ALMOST CERTAINLY BY THE WEEKEND. PRECIP CHANCES ONCE
AGAIN LOOK FAVORABLE FOR THE LATTER PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST PERIOD
ALTHOUGH ITS STILL DIFFICULT TO HIGHLIGHT ONE DAY VS ANOTHER UNTIL
WE GET A LITTLE CLOSER.

AS FOR TEMPERATURES TODAY...EXPECTING SIMILAR READINGS AS SUNDAY
GIVEN A CLOUDY START TO THE MORNING WITH HIGHS VERY CLOSE TO NORMAL
THIS AFTERNOON. WITH DRIER AIR WORKING INTO THE AREA MID
WEEK...TEMPS WILL LIKELY TAKE A RUN INTO THE 105-109 RANGE ACROSS
THE DESERTS. CONSEQUENTLY...THERE SHOULD BE A SLIGHT DROP-OFF BY THE
WEEKEND AS DEEPER MOISTURE MAKES ITS WAY BACK INTO THE AREA. STILL
ABOVE 100 BUT SOMEWHAT LOWER THAN THE MID WEEK VALUES.

&&

.AVIATION...
SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA INCLUDING KPHX...KIWA...AND KSDL...
A SMALL DISTURBANCE MOVING NORTHWARD THROUGH EAST-CENTRAL ARIZONA
EARLY THIS MORNING MAY PRODUCE SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS ROUGHLY BETWEEN
PHX AND SJN UNTIL ABOUT 16Z. CLOUDINESS...BASES AOA 15 KFT
MSL...WILL ALSO BEGIN TO THIN OUT AFT 16Z. MEANWHILE...A LARGER
DISTURBANCE CENTERED OVER NORTHERN BAJA AS OF 12Z MAY LEAD TO SOME
STORM REDEVELOPMENT BY 18Z BUT CONFIDENCE TOO LOW AT THE TAF SITES
TO INSERT TEMPO TSRA.

SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA AND SOUTHWEST ARIZONA INCLUDING KIPL AND KBLH...
A WEATHER DISTURBANCE CENTERED OVER NORTHERN BAJA MAY LEAD TO THE
DEVELOPMENT OF TSTORMS BEFORE 18Z...MOST LIKELY OVER LA PAZ AND
EASTERN RIVERSIDE COUNTIES. CONFIDENCE TOO LOW AT THE TAF SITES TO
INSERT TEMPO TSRA. HOWEVER...KBLH MORE LIKELY TO SEE TSTORMS THAN
KIPL.

AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDED TAFS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...
A BIT OF ADDITIONAL DRYING CAN BE EXPECTED WEDNESDAY WITH LITTLE
CHANGE THURSDAY. STORM CHANCES WILL BE SLIGHT AND WILL BE LIMITED TO
THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA. LATE IN THE WEEK AND
OVER THE WEEKEND...AN INCREASE IN MOISTURE AND ASSOCIATED HUMIDITIES
IS ANTICIPATED AND STORM CHANCES...THOUGH SLIGHT...EXPAND TO THE
LOWER ELEVATIONS. HIGH TEMPERATURES TREND DOWNWARD AS WELL.


&&

.PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

AZ...NONE.

CA...NONE.

&&

$$

VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/PHOENIX

DISCUSSION...LEINS
AVIATION...AJ
FIRE WEATHER...AJ







000
FXUS65 KTWC 281112
AFDTWC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ
400 AM MST MON JUL 28 2014

.SYNOPSIS...THERE IS A GOOD CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON
AND EVENING FOLLOWED BY DRIER CONDITIONS TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.
INCREASING CHANCES OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL THEN OCCUR FRIDAY THROUGH
SUNDAY AS DEEPER MOISTURE RETURNS TO THE AREA. EXPECT A WARMING
TREND TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY WITH A MODERATION IN DAYTIME
TEMPERATURES BY THIS WEEKEND.

&&

.DISCUSSION...KEMX WSR-88D DETECTED ISOLATED MOSTLY LESS THAN 30 DBZ
ECHOES MOVING NEWD ACROSS SRN GRAHAM/NERN COCHISE COUNTIES AT 1055Z.
THE REST OF SE AZ WAS VOID OF PRECIP ECHOES AT THIS TIME. CLOUD TOPS
HAVE WARMED CONSIDERABLY DURING THE PAST 2-3 HOURS AS PER IR
SATELLITE IMAGERY. A CYCLONIC CIRCULATION FEATURE CENTERED OVER NRN
COCHISE COUNTY WAS EVIDENT VIA RADAR/SATELLITE IMAGERY.

THERE WERE PRONOUNCED DIFFERENCES BETWEEN THE 28/06Z NAM AND SEVERAL
RUC HRRR SOLUTIONS REGARDING PRECIP POTENTIAL INTO THIS AFTERNOON.
THE RUC HRRR HAS BEEN VERY CONSISTENT WITH LIMITING PRECIP ECHOES TO
NEAR THE ERN MOUNTAINS FROM LATE THIS MORNING INTO EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...THE NAM DEPICTS FAIRLY MODEST QPF/S TO OCCUR
FROM TUCSON EWD TO THE NEW MEXICO BORDER BY LATE THIS MORNING AND
CONTINUE INTO THIS AFTERNOON. DRY CONDITIONS WERE PROGGED ACROSS WRN
PIMA COUNTY.

A KEY ELEMENT REGARDING SHOWER/TSTM POTENTIAL LATER TODAY MAY BE THE
INFLUENCE FROM THE AFOREMENTIONED CYCLONIC CIRCULATION SYSTEM. A
SUBSIDENCE AREA MAY OCCUR AS THIS FEATURE DEPARTS NWD INTO EAST
CENTRAL ARIZONA. THIS SCENARIO WOULD GIVE CREDENCE TO THE VARIOUS
RUC HRRR SOLUTIONS. HOWEVER...GIVEN THE ONGOING DECREASING CLOUD
COVER...THE COMBINATION OF AMPLE MOISTURE WITH FAIRLY STOUT
INSOLATION MAY LEAD TO GREATER COVERAGE OF SHOWERS/TSTMS AS PER THE
MOST RECENT NAM SOLUTION.

THE OFFICIAL FORECAST FOR THIS MORNING GIVES GENERALLY A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF SHOWERS/TSTMS ACROSS THE ERN MOUNTAINS FOLLOWED BY
SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWER/TSTMS THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING.
FAIRLY SLOW STORM MOTIONS SHOULD TRANSLATE INTO LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL. A FEW GUSTS MAY BRIEFLY APPROACH SEVERE THRESHOLDS THIS
AFTERNOON INTO EARLY THIS EVENING. A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS/TSTMS
WILL THEN OCCUR LATE TONIGHT.

TUE-THUR...
28/00Z GFS/ECMWF WERE SIMILAR WITH DEPICTING A DRYING TREND AS WLY/
NWLY MID-LEVEL IS PROGGED TO OCCUR. THE LEAST COVERAGE OF SHOWERS/
TSTMS SHOULD OCCUR WED ASSUMING THE GFS/ECMWF SOLUTIONS TO BE
REALITY.

FRI-SUN...
GFS/ECWMF WERE SIMILAR WITH DEPICTING INCREASING MOISTURE ACROSS SE
AZ AS THE UPPER HIGH BECOMES CENTERED NEAR THE FOUR CORNERS REGION.
HAVE NOTED THAT THESE SOLUTIONS HAVE DEPICTED REDUCED QPF/S...
PARTICULARLY THIS WEEKEND...VERSUS GFS/ECMWF SOLUTIONS FROM 24 HOURS
AGO. AT ANY RATE...FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS FAIRLY HIGH THAT DEEPER
MOISTURE WILL LEAD TO SCATTERED MAINLY AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWERS/
TSTMS.

HIGH TEMPS THIS AFTERNOON WILL GENERALLY BE SIMILAR TO TEMPS
ACHIEVED SUN AFTERNOON. A WARMING TREND WILL THEN OCCUR TUE-WED
FOLLOWED BY A MODERATION IN DAYTIME TEMPS BY THIS WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION...VALID THRU 29/12Z.
A FEW -TSRA/-SHRA WILL OCCUR MAINLY NEAR THE MOUNTAINS EAST OF KTUS
THIS MORNING...THEN SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS TSRA/SHRA WILL PREVAIL
THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING. MVFR CONDITIONS WILL OCCUR WITH
THE STRONGER TSRA ALONG WITH WIND GUSTS TO AROUND 45 KTS. CLOUD
DECKS WILL GENERALLY BE AT 7-12K FT AGL THRU EARLY TUESDAY MORNING.
AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR TAF AMENDMENTS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS WILL OCCUR THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. EXPECT STRONG...GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS
ASSOCIATED WITH THE STRONGER STORMS. DRIER CONDITIONS WILL THEN
PROVIDE DECREASED THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.
THEREAFTER...SCATTERED MOSTLY AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS
WILL PREVAIL FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY AS DEEPER MOISTURE RETURNS TO THE
AREA. OTHERWISE...NORMAL DIURNAL WIND TRENDS WILL OCCUR WITH
OCCASIONAL GUSTS DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS DUE TO DAYTIME HEATING.

&&

.TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...YOUTUBE...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/TUCSON

FRANCIS





000
FXUS65 KTWC 281112
AFDTWC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ
400 AM MST MON JUL 28 2014

.SYNOPSIS...THERE IS A GOOD CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON
AND EVENING FOLLOWED BY DRIER CONDITIONS TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.
INCREASING CHANCES OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL THEN OCCUR FRIDAY THROUGH
SUNDAY AS DEEPER MOISTURE RETURNS TO THE AREA. EXPECT A WARMING
TREND TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY WITH A MODERATION IN DAYTIME
TEMPERATURES BY THIS WEEKEND.

&&

.DISCUSSION...KEMX WSR-88D DETECTED ISOLATED MOSTLY LESS THAN 30 DBZ
ECHOES MOVING NEWD ACROSS SRN GRAHAM/NERN COCHISE COUNTIES AT 1055Z.
THE REST OF SE AZ WAS VOID OF PRECIP ECHOES AT THIS TIME. CLOUD TOPS
HAVE WARMED CONSIDERABLY DURING THE PAST 2-3 HOURS AS PER IR
SATELLITE IMAGERY. A CYCLONIC CIRCULATION FEATURE CENTERED OVER NRN
COCHISE COUNTY WAS EVIDENT VIA RADAR/SATELLITE IMAGERY.

THERE WERE PRONOUNCED DIFFERENCES BETWEEN THE 28/06Z NAM AND SEVERAL
RUC HRRR SOLUTIONS REGARDING PRECIP POTENTIAL INTO THIS AFTERNOON.
THE RUC HRRR HAS BEEN VERY CONSISTENT WITH LIMITING PRECIP ECHOES TO
NEAR THE ERN MOUNTAINS FROM LATE THIS MORNING INTO EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...THE NAM DEPICTS FAIRLY MODEST QPF/S TO OCCUR
FROM TUCSON EWD TO THE NEW MEXICO BORDER BY LATE THIS MORNING AND
CONTINUE INTO THIS AFTERNOON. DRY CONDITIONS WERE PROGGED ACROSS WRN
PIMA COUNTY.

A KEY ELEMENT REGARDING SHOWER/TSTM POTENTIAL LATER TODAY MAY BE THE
INFLUENCE FROM THE AFOREMENTIONED CYCLONIC CIRCULATION SYSTEM. A
SUBSIDENCE AREA MAY OCCUR AS THIS FEATURE DEPARTS NWD INTO EAST
CENTRAL ARIZONA. THIS SCENARIO WOULD GIVE CREDENCE TO THE VARIOUS
RUC HRRR SOLUTIONS. HOWEVER...GIVEN THE ONGOING DECREASING CLOUD
COVER...THE COMBINATION OF AMPLE MOISTURE WITH FAIRLY STOUT
INSOLATION MAY LEAD TO GREATER COVERAGE OF SHOWERS/TSTMS AS PER THE
MOST RECENT NAM SOLUTION.

THE OFFICIAL FORECAST FOR THIS MORNING GIVES GENERALLY A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF SHOWERS/TSTMS ACROSS THE ERN MOUNTAINS FOLLOWED BY
SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWER/TSTMS THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING.
FAIRLY SLOW STORM MOTIONS SHOULD TRANSLATE INTO LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL. A FEW GUSTS MAY BRIEFLY APPROACH SEVERE THRESHOLDS THIS
AFTERNOON INTO EARLY THIS EVENING. A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS/TSTMS
WILL THEN OCCUR LATE TONIGHT.

TUE-THUR...
28/00Z GFS/ECMWF WERE SIMILAR WITH DEPICTING A DRYING TREND AS WLY/
NWLY MID-LEVEL IS PROGGED TO OCCUR. THE LEAST COVERAGE OF SHOWERS/
TSTMS SHOULD OCCUR WED ASSUMING THE GFS/ECMWF SOLUTIONS TO BE
REALITY.

FRI-SUN...
GFS/ECWMF WERE SIMILAR WITH DEPICTING INCREASING MOISTURE ACROSS SE
AZ AS THE UPPER HIGH BECOMES CENTERED NEAR THE FOUR CORNERS REGION.
HAVE NOTED THAT THESE SOLUTIONS HAVE DEPICTED REDUCED QPF/S...
PARTICULARLY THIS WEEKEND...VERSUS GFS/ECMWF SOLUTIONS FROM 24 HOURS
AGO. AT ANY RATE...FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS FAIRLY HIGH THAT DEEPER
MOISTURE WILL LEAD TO SCATTERED MAINLY AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWERS/
TSTMS.

HIGH TEMPS THIS AFTERNOON WILL GENERALLY BE SIMILAR TO TEMPS
ACHIEVED SUN AFTERNOON. A WARMING TREND WILL THEN OCCUR TUE-WED
FOLLOWED BY A MODERATION IN DAYTIME TEMPS BY THIS WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION...VALID THRU 29/12Z.
A FEW -TSRA/-SHRA WILL OCCUR MAINLY NEAR THE MOUNTAINS EAST OF KTUS
THIS MORNING...THEN SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS TSRA/SHRA WILL PREVAIL
THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING. MVFR CONDITIONS WILL OCCUR WITH
THE STRONGER TSRA ALONG WITH WIND GUSTS TO AROUND 45 KTS. CLOUD
DECKS WILL GENERALLY BE AT 7-12K FT AGL THRU EARLY TUESDAY MORNING.
AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR TAF AMENDMENTS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS WILL OCCUR THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. EXPECT STRONG...GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS
ASSOCIATED WITH THE STRONGER STORMS. DRIER CONDITIONS WILL THEN
PROVIDE DECREASED THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.
THEREAFTER...SCATTERED MOSTLY AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS
WILL PREVAIL FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY AS DEEPER MOISTURE RETURNS TO THE
AREA. OTHERWISE...NORMAL DIURNAL WIND TRENDS WILL OCCUR WITH
OCCASIONAL GUSTS DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS DUE TO DAYTIME HEATING.

&&

.TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...YOUTUBE...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/TUCSON

FRANCIS






000
FXUS65 KTWC 281100
AFDTWC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ
400 AM MST MON JUL 28 2014

.SYNOPSIS...THERE IS A GOOD CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON
AND EVENING FOLLOWED BY DRIER CONDITIONS TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.
INCREASING CHANCES OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL THEN OCCUR FRIDAY THROUGH
SUNDAY AS DEEPER MOISTURE RETURNS TO THE AREA. EXPECT A WARMING
TREND TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY WITH A MODERATION IN DAYTIME
TEMPERATURES BY THIS WEEKEND.

&&

.DISCUSSION...KEMX WSR-88D DETECTED ISOLATED MOSTLY LESS THAN 30 DBZ
ECHOES MOVING NEWD ACROSS SRN GRAHAM/NERN COCHISE COUNTIES AT 1055Z.
THE REST OF SE AZ WAS VOID OF PRECIP ECHOES AT THIS TIME. CLOUD TOPS
HAVE WARMED CONSIDERABLY DURING THE PAST 2-3 HOURS AS PER IR
SATELLITE IMAGERY. A CYCLONIC CIRCULATION FEATURE CENTERED OVER NRN
COCHISE COUNTY WAS EVIDENT VIA RADAR/SATELLITE IMAGERY.

THERE WERE PRONOUNCED DIFFERENCES BETWEEN THE 28/06Z NAM AND SEVERAL
RUC HRRR SOLUTIONS REGARDING PRECIP POTENTIAL INTO THIS AFTERNOON.
THE RUC HRRR HAS BEEN VERY CONSISTENT WITH LIMITING PRECIP ECHOES TO
NEAR THE ERN MOUNTAINS FROM LATE THIS MORNING INTO EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...THE NAM DEPICTS FAIRLY MODEST QPF/S TO OCCUR
FROM TUCSON EWD TO THE NEW MEXICO BORDER BY LATE THIS MORNING AND
CONTINUE INTO THIS AFTERNOON. DRY CONDITIONS WERE PROGGED ACROSS WRN
PIMA COUNTY.

A KEY ELEMENT REGARDING SHOWER/TSTM POTENTIAL LATER TODAY MAY BE THE
INFLUENCE FROM THE AFOREMENTIONED CYCLONIC CIRCULATION SYSTEM. A
SUBSIDENCE AREA MAY OCCUR AS THIS FEATURE DEPARTS NWD INTO EAST
CENTRAL ARIZONA. THIS SCENARIO WOULD GIVE CREDENCE TO THE VARIOUS
RUC HRRR SOLUTIONS. HOWEVER...GIVEN THE ONGOING DECREASING CLOUD
COVER...THE COMBINATION OF AMPLE MOISTURE WITH FAIRLY STOUT
INSOLATION MAY LEAD TO GREATER COVERAGE OF SHOWERS/TSTMS AS PER THE
MOST RECENT NAM SOLUTION.

THE OFFICIAL FORECAST FOR THIS MORNING GIVES GENERALLY A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF SHOWERS/TSTMS ACROSS THE ERN MOUNTAINS FOLLOWED BY
SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWER/TSTMS THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING.
FAIRLY LIGHT STORM MOTIONS SHOULD TRANSLATE INTO LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL. A FEW GUSTS MAY BRIEFLY APPROACH SEVERE THRESHOLDS THIS
AFTERNOON INTO EARLY THIS EVENING. A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS/TSTMS
WILL THEN OCCUR LATE TONIGHT.

TUE-THUR...
28/00Z GFS/ECMWF WERE SIMILAR WITH DEPICTING A DRYING TREND AS WLY/
NWLY MID-LEVEL IS PROGGED TO OCCUR. THE LEAST COVERAGE OF SHOWERS/
TSTMS SHOULD OCCUR WED ASSUMING THE GFS/ECMWF SOLUTIONS TO BE
REALITY.

FRI-SUN...
GFS/ECWMF WERE SIMILAR WITH DEPICTING INCREASING MOISTURE ACROSS SE
AZ AS THE UPPER HIGH BECOMES CENTERED NEAR THE FOUR CORNERS REGION.
HAVE NOTED THAT THESE SOLUTIONS HAVE DEPICTED REDUCED QPF/S...
PARTICULARLY THIS WEEKEND...VERSUS GFS/ECMWF SOLUTIONS FROM 24 HOURS
AGO. AT ANY RATE...FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS FAIRLY HIGH THAT DEEPER
MOISTURE WILL LEAD TO SCATTERED MAINLY AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWERS/
TSTMS.

HIGH TEMPS THIS AFTERNOON WILL GENERALLY BE SIMILAR TO TEMPS
ACHIEVED SUN AFTERNOON. A WARMING TREND WILL THEN OCCUR TUE-WED
FOLLOWED BY A MODERATION IN DAYTIME TEMPS BY THIS WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION...VALID THRU 29/12Z.
A FEW -TSRA/-SHRA WILL OCCUR MAINLY NEAR THE MOUNTAINS EAST OF KTUS
THIS MORNING...THEN SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS TSRA/SHRA WILL PREVAIL
THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING. MVFR CONDITIONS WILL OCCUR WITH
THE STRONGER TSRA ALONG WITH WIND GUSTS TO AROUND 45 KTS. CLOUD
DECKS WILL GENERALLY BE AT 7-12K FT AGL THRU EARLY TUESDAY MORNING.
AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR TAF AMENDMENTS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS WILL OCCUR THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. EXPECT STRONG...GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS
ASSOCIATED WITH THE STRONGER STORMS. DRIER CONDITIONS WILL THEN
PROVIDE DECREASED THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.
THEREAFTER...SCATTERED MOSTLY AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS
WILL PREVAIL FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY AS DEEPER MOISTURE RETURNS TO THE
AREA. OTHERWISE...NORMAL DIURNAL WIND TRENDS WILL OCCUR WITH
OCCASIONAL GUSTS DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS DUE TO DAYTIME HEATING.

&&

.TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...YOUTUBE...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/TUCSON

FRANCIS





000
FXUS65 KTWC 281100
AFDTWC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ
400 AM MST MON JUL 28 2014

.SYNOPSIS...THERE IS A GOOD CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON
AND EVENING FOLLOWED BY DRIER CONDITIONS TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.
INCREASING CHANCES OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL THEN OCCUR FRIDAY THROUGH
SUNDAY AS DEEPER MOISTURE RETURNS TO THE AREA. EXPECT A WARMING
TREND TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY WITH A MODERATION IN DAYTIME
TEMPERATURES BY THIS WEEKEND.

&&

.DISCUSSION...KEMX WSR-88D DETECTED ISOLATED MOSTLY LESS THAN 30 DBZ
ECHOES MOVING NEWD ACROSS SRN GRAHAM/NERN COCHISE COUNTIES AT 1055Z.
THE REST OF SE AZ WAS VOID OF PRECIP ECHOES AT THIS TIME. CLOUD TOPS
HAVE WARMED CONSIDERABLY DURING THE PAST 2-3 HOURS AS PER IR
SATELLITE IMAGERY. A CYCLONIC CIRCULATION FEATURE CENTERED OVER NRN
COCHISE COUNTY WAS EVIDENT VIA RADAR/SATELLITE IMAGERY.

THERE WERE PRONOUNCED DIFFERENCES BETWEEN THE 28/06Z NAM AND SEVERAL
RUC HRRR SOLUTIONS REGARDING PRECIP POTENTIAL INTO THIS AFTERNOON.
THE RUC HRRR HAS BEEN VERY CONSISTENT WITH LIMITING PRECIP ECHOES TO
NEAR THE ERN MOUNTAINS FROM LATE THIS MORNING INTO EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...THE NAM DEPICTS FAIRLY MODEST QPF/S TO OCCUR
FROM TUCSON EWD TO THE NEW MEXICO BORDER BY LATE THIS MORNING AND
CONTINUE INTO THIS AFTERNOON. DRY CONDITIONS WERE PROGGED ACROSS WRN
PIMA COUNTY.

A KEY ELEMENT REGARDING SHOWER/TSTM POTENTIAL LATER TODAY MAY BE THE
INFLUENCE FROM THE AFOREMENTIONED CYCLONIC CIRCULATION SYSTEM. A
SUBSIDENCE AREA MAY OCCUR AS THIS FEATURE DEPARTS NWD INTO EAST
CENTRAL ARIZONA. THIS SCENARIO WOULD GIVE CREDENCE TO THE VARIOUS
RUC HRRR SOLUTIONS. HOWEVER...GIVEN THE ONGOING DECREASING CLOUD
COVER...THE COMBINATION OF AMPLE MOISTURE WITH FAIRLY STOUT
INSOLATION MAY LEAD TO GREATER COVERAGE OF SHOWERS/TSTMS AS PER THE
MOST RECENT NAM SOLUTION.

THE OFFICIAL FORECAST FOR THIS MORNING GIVES GENERALLY A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF SHOWERS/TSTMS ACROSS THE ERN MOUNTAINS FOLLOWED BY
SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWER/TSTMS THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING.
FAIRLY LIGHT STORM MOTIONS SHOULD TRANSLATE INTO LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL. A FEW GUSTS MAY BRIEFLY APPROACH SEVERE THRESHOLDS THIS
AFTERNOON INTO EARLY THIS EVENING. A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS/TSTMS
WILL THEN OCCUR LATE TONIGHT.

TUE-THUR...
28/00Z GFS/ECMWF WERE SIMILAR WITH DEPICTING A DRYING TREND AS WLY/
NWLY MID-LEVEL IS PROGGED TO OCCUR. THE LEAST COVERAGE OF SHOWERS/
TSTMS SHOULD OCCUR WED ASSUMING THE GFS/ECMWF SOLUTIONS TO BE
REALITY.

FRI-SUN...
GFS/ECWMF WERE SIMILAR WITH DEPICTING INCREASING MOISTURE ACROSS SE
AZ AS THE UPPER HIGH BECOMES CENTERED NEAR THE FOUR CORNERS REGION.
HAVE NOTED THAT THESE SOLUTIONS HAVE DEPICTED REDUCED QPF/S...
PARTICULARLY THIS WEEKEND...VERSUS GFS/ECMWF SOLUTIONS FROM 24 HOURS
AGO. AT ANY RATE...FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS FAIRLY HIGH THAT DEEPER
MOISTURE WILL LEAD TO SCATTERED MAINLY AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWERS/
TSTMS.

HIGH TEMPS THIS AFTERNOON WILL GENERALLY BE SIMILAR TO TEMPS
ACHIEVED SUN AFTERNOON. A WARMING TREND WILL THEN OCCUR TUE-WED
FOLLOWED BY A MODERATION IN DAYTIME TEMPS BY THIS WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION...VALID THRU 29/12Z.
A FEW -TSRA/-SHRA WILL OCCUR MAINLY NEAR THE MOUNTAINS EAST OF KTUS
THIS MORNING...THEN SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS TSRA/SHRA WILL PREVAIL
THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING. MVFR CONDITIONS WILL OCCUR WITH
THE STRONGER TSRA ALONG WITH WIND GUSTS TO AROUND 45 KTS. CLOUD
DECKS WILL GENERALLY BE AT 7-12K FT AGL THRU EARLY TUESDAY MORNING.
AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR TAF AMENDMENTS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS WILL OCCUR THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. EXPECT STRONG...GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS
ASSOCIATED WITH THE STRONGER STORMS. DRIER CONDITIONS WILL THEN
PROVIDE DECREASED THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.
THEREAFTER...SCATTERED MOSTLY AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS
WILL PREVAIL FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY AS DEEPER MOISTURE RETURNS TO THE
AREA. OTHERWISE...NORMAL DIURNAL WIND TRENDS WILL OCCUR WITH
OCCASIONAL GUSTS DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS DUE TO DAYTIME HEATING.

&&

.TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...YOUTUBE...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/TUCSON

FRANCIS






000
FXUS65 KFGZ 281038
AFDFGZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ
338 AM MST MON JUL 28 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A MOIST AND UNSTABLE SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL KEEP AN ACTIVE MONSOON
PATTERN OVER NORTHERN ARIZONA TODAY. THUNDERSTORMS WILL HAVE THE
POTENTIAL OF PRODUCING HEAVY RAINFALL...ESPECIALLY ACROSS
NORTHWESTERN ARIZONA. FROM TUESDAY THROUGH THE END OF THE WORK
WEEK...MONSOON MOISTURE THINS OUT AS HIGH PRESSURE CENTERS OVER
SOUTHERN ARIZONA AND NEW MEXICO...RESULTING IN A DOWNWARD TREND IN
THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
ANOTHER ACTIVE DAY IS EXPECTED ACROSS NORTHERN ARIZONA AS A
DEEP...MOIST AND UNSTABLE SOUTHERLY FLOW REMAINS IN PLACE. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BE CENTERED TO OUR EAST OVER NEW MEXICO WITH AN
UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE (CURRENTLY APPROACHING YUMA) EXPECTED TO
ROTATE NORTHWARD ALONG THE COLORADO RIVER AND THEN INTO NORTHWEST
AZ. WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES EXPECTED TO BE NEAR AN INCH
ACROSS ALL OF NORTHERN AZ THIS AFTERNOON AND FAIRLY WEEK STEERING
FLOW...HEAVY RAIN WILL BE A THREAT FROM ANY THUNDERSTORMS.
HOWEVER...BELIEVE THE BEST POTENTIAL FOR MORE ORGANIZED CONVECTION
AND EXCESSIVE HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE ACROSS NORTHWEST AZ WITH THE
ADDED SUPPORT OF THE UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE AND PROXIMITY TO
HIGHER MOISTURE GRADIENTS. FOR THESE REASONS...HAVE ISSUED A FLASH
FLOOD WATCH FOR WESTERN COCONINO COUNTY AND THE YAVAPAI COUNTY
MTNS THROUGH THIS EVENING. INCREASED CLOUD COVER AND STORM
ACTIVITY TODAY SHOULD KEEP TEMPERATURES NEAR TO BELOW AVERAGE.
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL LIKELY CONTINUE THROUGH THE EVENING
HOURS AS THE DISTURBANCE MOVES THROUGH NORTHWEST AZ...BUT SHOULD
BEGIN TO DECREASE AFTER MIDNIGHT.

THE REST OF THIS WEEK...DEEP TROUGHING OVER THE EASTERN U.S.
CAUSES THE HIGH PRESSURE CENTER TO RETROGRADE WESTWARD...CENTERING
OVER SOUTHERN AZ/NM. EXPECT A GRADUAL THINNING OF ATMOSPHERIC
MOISTURE WITH A LESS FAVORABLE WESTERLY FLOW IN PLACE...LEADING TO
A DOWNWARD TREND IN THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY. THIS LOW GRADE MONSOON
PATTERN SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGH FRIDAY WITH A POSSIBLE UPTICK IN
MOISTURE BY NEXT WEEKEND. TEMPERATURES THE REST OF THE WEEK WILL
RUN CLOSE TO AND SLIGHTLY ABOVE AVERAGE.

&&

.AVIATION...
FOR THE 12Z PACKAGE...SCT-NRMS SHRA/TSRA WITH ISOLD
+TSRA WILL CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. THE GREATEST STORM
COVERAGE IS EXPECTED ACROSS COCONINO AND YAVAPAI COUNTIES. MVFR VSBY
AND WIND GUSTS UP TO 35KTS PSBL IN THE STRONGER STORMS. AVIATION
DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDMENTS.

&&

.FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM 11 AM MST THIS MORNING THROUGH THIS
EVENING FOR AZZ004>008-015-038.

&&

$$

PUBLIC.........MCS
AVIATION.......DL

FOR NORTHERN ARIZONA WEATHER INFORMATION VISIT
WEATHER.GOV/FLAGSTAFF






000
FXUS65 KFGZ 281038
AFDFGZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ
338 AM MST MON JUL 28 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A MOIST AND UNSTABLE SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL KEEP AN ACTIVE MONSOON
PATTERN OVER NORTHERN ARIZONA TODAY. THUNDERSTORMS WILL HAVE THE
POTENTIAL OF PRODUCING HEAVY RAINFALL...ESPECIALLY ACROSS
NORTHWESTERN ARIZONA. FROM TUESDAY THROUGH THE END OF THE WORK
WEEK...MONSOON MOISTURE THINS OUT AS HIGH PRESSURE CENTERS OVER
SOUTHERN ARIZONA AND NEW MEXICO...RESULTING IN A DOWNWARD TREND IN
THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
ANOTHER ACTIVE DAY IS EXPECTED ACROSS NORTHERN ARIZONA AS A
DEEP...MOIST AND UNSTABLE SOUTHERLY FLOW REMAINS IN PLACE. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BE CENTERED TO OUR EAST OVER NEW MEXICO WITH AN
UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE (CURRENTLY APPROACHING YUMA) EXPECTED TO
ROTATE NORTHWARD ALONG THE COLORADO RIVER AND THEN INTO NORTHWEST
AZ. WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES EXPECTED TO BE NEAR AN INCH
ACROSS ALL OF NORTHERN AZ THIS AFTERNOON AND FAIRLY WEEK STEERING
FLOW...HEAVY RAIN WILL BE A THREAT FROM ANY THUNDERSTORMS.
HOWEVER...BELIEVE THE BEST POTENTIAL FOR MORE ORGANIZED CONVECTION
AND EXCESSIVE HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE ACROSS NORTHWEST AZ WITH THE
ADDED SUPPORT OF THE UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE AND PROXIMITY TO
HIGHER MOISTURE GRADIENTS. FOR THESE REASONS...HAVE ISSUED A FLASH
FLOOD WATCH FOR WESTERN COCONINO COUNTY AND THE YAVAPAI COUNTY
MTNS THROUGH THIS EVENING. INCREASED CLOUD COVER AND STORM
ACTIVITY TODAY SHOULD KEEP TEMPERATURES NEAR TO BELOW AVERAGE.
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL LIKELY CONTINUE THROUGH THE EVENING
HOURS AS THE DISTURBANCE MOVES THROUGH NORTHWEST AZ...BUT SHOULD
BEGIN TO DECREASE AFTER MIDNIGHT.

THE REST OF THIS WEEK...DEEP TROUGHING OVER THE EASTERN U.S.
CAUSES THE HIGH PRESSURE CENTER TO RETROGRADE WESTWARD...CENTERING
OVER SOUTHERN AZ/NM. EXPECT A GRADUAL THINNING OF ATMOSPHERIC
MOISTURE WITH A LESS FAVORABLE WESTERLY FLOW IN PLACE...LEADING TO
A DOWNWARD TREND IN THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY. THIS LOW GRADE MONSOON
PATTERN SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGH FRIDAY WITH A POSSIBLE UPTICK IN
MOISTURE BY NEXT WEEKEND. TEMPERATURES THE REST OF THE WEEK WILL
RUN CLOSE TO AND SLIGHTLY ABOVE AVERAGE.

&&

.AVIATION...
FOR THE 12Z PACKAGE...SCT-NRMS SHRA/TSRA WITH ISOLD
+TSRA WILL CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. THE GREATEST STORM
COVERAGE IS EXPECTED ACROSS COCONINO AND YAVAPAI COUNTIES. MVFR VSBY
AND WIND GUSTS UP TO 35KTS PSBL IN THE STRONGER STORMS. AVIATION
DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDMENTS.

&&

.FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM 11 AM MST THIS MORNING THROUGH THIS
EVENING FOR AZZ004>008-015-038.

&&

$$

PUBLIC.........MCS
AVIATION.......DL

FOR NORTHERN ARIZONA WEATHER INFORMATION VISIT
WEATHER.GOV/FLAGSTAFF






000
FXUS65 KFGZ 281038
AFDFGZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ
338 AM MST MON JUL 28 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A MOIST AND UNSTABLE SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL KEEP AN ACTIVE MONSOON
PATTERN OVER NORTHERN ARIZONA TODAY. THUNDERSTORMS WILL HAVE THE
POTENTIAL OF PRODUCING HEAVY RAINFALL...ESPECIALLY ACROSS
NORTHWESTERN ARIZONA. FROM TUESDAY THROUGH THE END OF THE WORK
WEEK...MONSOON MOISTURE THINS OUT AS HIGH PRESSURE CENTERS OVER
SOUTHERN ARIZONA AND NEW MEXICO...RESULTING IN A DOWNWARD TREND IN
THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
ANOTHER ACTIVE DAY IS EXPECTED ACROSS NORTHERN ARIZONA AS A
DEEP...MOIST AND UNSTABLE SOUTHERLY FLOW REMAINS IN PLACE. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BE CENTERED TO OUR EAST OVER NEW MEXICO WITH AN
UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE (CURRENTLY APPROACHING YUMA) EXPECTED TO
ROTATE NORTHWARD ALONG THE COLORADO RIVER AND THEN INTO NORTHWEST
AZ. WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES EXPECTED TO BE NEAR AN INCH
ACROSS ALL OF NORTHERN AZ THIS AFTERNOON AND FAIRLY WEEK STEERING
FLOW...HEAVY RAIN WILL BE A THREAT FROM ANY THUNDERSTORMS.
HOWEVER...BELIEVE THE BEST POTENTIAL FOR MORE ORGANIZED CONVECTION
AND EXCESSIVE HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE ACROSS NORTHWEST AZ WITH THE
ADDED SUPPORT OF THE UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE AND PROXIMITY TO
HIGHER MOISTURE GRADIENTS. FOR THESE REASONS...HAVE ISSUED A FLASH
FLOOD WATCH FOR WESTERN COCONINO COUNTY AND THE YAVAPAI COUNTY
MTNS THROUGH THIS EVENING. INCREASED CLOUD COVER AND STORM
ACTIVITY TODAY SHOULD KEEP TEMPERATURES NEAR TO BELOW AVERAGE.
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL LIKELY CONTINUE THROUGH THE EVENING
HOURS AS THE DISTURBANCE MOVES THROUGH NORTHWEST AZ...BUT SHOULD
BEGIN TO DECREASE AFTER MIDNIGHT.

THE REST OF THIS WEEK...DEEP TROUGHING OVER THE EASTERN U.S.
CAUSES THE HIGH PRESSURE CENTER TO RETROGRADE WESTWARD...CENTERING
OVER SOUTHERN AZ/NM. EXPECT A GRADUAL THINNING OF ATMOSPHERIC
MOISTURE WITH A LESS FAVORABLE WESTERLY FLOW IN PLACE...LEADING TO
A DOWNWARD TREND IN THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY. THIS LOW GRADE MONSOON
PATTERN SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGH FRIDAY WITH A POSSIBLE UPTICK IN
MOISTURE BY NEXT WEEKEND. TEMPERATURES THE REST OF THE WEEK WILL
RUN CLOSE TO AND SLIGHTLY ABOVE AVERAGE.

&&

.AVIATION...
FOR THE 12Z PACKAGE...SCT-NRMS SHRA/TSRA WITH ISOLD
+TSRA WILL CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. THE GREATEST STORM
COVERAGE IS EXPECTED ACROSS COCONINO AND YAVAPAI COUNTIES. MVFR VSBY
AND WIND GUSTS UP TO 35KTS PSBL IN THE STRONGER STORMS. AVIATION
DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDMENTS.

&&

.FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM 11 AM MST THIS MORNING THROUGH THIS
EVENING FOR AZZ004>008-015-038.

&&

$$

PUBLIC.........MCS
AVIATION.......DL

FOR NORTHERN ARIZONA WEATHER INFORMATION VISIT
WEATHER.GOV/FLAGSTAFF






000
FXUS65 KFGZ 281038
AFDFGZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ
338 AM MST MON JUL 28 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A MOIST AND UNSTABLE SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL KEEP AN ACTIVE MONSOON
PATTERN OVER NORTHERN ARIZONA TODAY. THUNDERSTORMS WILL HAVE THE
POTENTIAL OF PRODUCING HEAVY RAINFALL...ESPECIALLY ACROSS
NORTHWESTERN ARIZONA. FROM TUESDAY THROUGH THE END OF THE WORK
WEEK...MONSOON MOISTURE THINS OUT AS HIGH PRESSURE CENTERS OVER
SOUTHERN ARIZONA AND NEW MEXICO...RESULTING IN A DOWNWARD TREND IN
THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
ANOTHER ACTIVE DAY IS EXPECTED ACROSS NORTHERN ARIZONA AS A
DEEP...MOIST AND UNSTABLE SOUTHERLY FLOW REMAINS IN PLACE. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BE CENTERED TO OUR EAST OVER NEW MEXICO WITH AN
UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE (CURRENTLY APPROACHING YUMA) EXPECTED TO
ROTATE NORTHWARD ALONG THE COLORADO RIVER AND THEN INTO NORTHWEST
AZ. WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES EXPECTED TO BE NEAR AN INCH
ACROSS ALL OF NORTHERN AZ THIS AFTERNOON AND FAIRLY WEEK STEERING
FLOW...HEAVY RAIN WILL BE A THREAT FROM ANY THUNDERSTORMS.
HOWEVER...BELIEVE THE BEST POTENTIAL FOR MORE ORGANIZED CONVECTION
AND EXCESSIVE HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE ACROSS NORTHWEST AZ WITH THE
ADDED SUPPORT OF THE UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE AND PROXIMITY TO
HIGHER MOISTURE GRADIENTS. FOR THESE REASONS...HAVE ISSUED A FLASH
FLOOD WATCH FOR WESTERN COCONINO COUNTY AND THE YAVAPAI COUNTY
MTNS THROUGH THIS EVENING. INCREASED CLOUD COVER AND STORM
ACTIVITY TODAY SHOULD KEEP TEMPERATURES NEAR TO BELOW AVERAGE.
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL LIKELY CONTINUE THROUGH THE EVENING
HOURS AS THE DISTURBANCE MOVES THROUGH NORTHWEST AZ...BUT SHOULD
BEGIN TO DECREASE AFTER MIDNIGHT.

THE REST OF THIS WEEK...DEEP TROUGHING OVER THE EASTERN U.S.
CAUSES THE HIGH PRESSURE CENTER TO RETROGRADE WESTWARD...CENTERING
OVER SOUTHERN AZ/NM. EXPECT A GRADUAL THINNING OF ATMOSPHERIC
MOISTURE WITH A LESS FAVORABLE WESTERLY FLOW IN PLACE...LEADING TO
A DOWNWARD TREND IN THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY. THIS LOW GRADE MONSOON
PATTERN SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGH FRIDAY WITH A POSSIBLE UPTICK IN
MOISTURE BY NEXT WEEKEND. TEMPERATURES THE REST OF THE WEEK WILL
RUN CLOSE TO AND SLIGHTLY ABOVE AVERAGE.

&&

.AVIATION...
FOR THE 12Z PACKAGE...SCT-NRMS SHRA/TSRA WITH ISOLD
+TSRA WILL CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. THE GREATEST STORM
COVERAGE IS EXPECTED ACROSS COCONINO AND YAVAPAI COUNTIES. MVFR VSBY
AND WIND GUSTS UP TO 35KTS PSBL IN THE STRONGER STORMS. AVIATION
DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDMENTS.

&&

.FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM 11 AM MST THIS MORNING THROUGH THIS
EVENING FOR AZZ004>008-015-038.

&&

$$

PUBLIC.........MCS
AVIATION.......DL

FOR NORTHERN ARIZONA WEATHER INFORMATION VISIT
WEATHER.GOV/FLAGSTAFF






000
FXUS65 KPSR 280824
AFDPSR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PHOENIX AZ
124 AM MST MON JUL 28 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
THERE WILL BE A CONTINUED CHANCE OF AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE REGION TODAY...BEFORE DRIER AIR MOVES INTO
THE REGION TUESDAY THROUGH LATE WEEK. STORM CHANCES WILL INCREASE
AGAIN FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND AS MOISTURE MOVES BACK INTO THE
REGION.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
MUCH QUIETER WEATHER ACROSS THE REGION THIS MORNING COMPARED TO
SUNDAY MORNING...AS ONLY A FEW LINGERING SHOWERS WERE NOTED ON RADAR
ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF ARIZONA. RADAR MOSAIC INDICATES THE
PRESENCE OF AN MCV OVER GILA COUNTY WHILE WATER VAPOR IMAGERY
CONTINUES TO REVEAL A LARGER UPPER LEVEL CIRCULATION OVER NORTHERN
BAJA CALIFORNIA. THERE IS OBVIOUSLY STILL SOME ENERGY IN THE
ATMOSPHERE THIS MORNING AS SHOWERS CONTINUE TO FORM AND DISSIPATE
ALONG OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES AS OF 08Z...HOWEVER GIVEN HOW SHORT LIVED
THESE STORMS ARE /INDICATING WEAK MUCAPES ACROSS THE AREA/...NOT
EXPECTING WIDESPREAD CONVECTION TO DEVELOP LIKE WE SAW EARLY SUNDAY
MORNING.

AS IS TYPICAL FOR THE MONSOON...ITS ANOTHER COMPLICATED SETUP FOR
TODAY AS THERE IS A DECENT AMOUNT OF MOISTURE IN PLACE ACROSS THE
REGION WITH THE TWO AFOREMENTIONED CIRCULATIONS IN THE NEIGHBORHOOD
TO SERVE AS TRIGGERS. HOWEVER...THE BIGGEST MITIGATING FACTOR IS
THAT BOTH CIRCULATIONS WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA RELATIVELY EARLY
IN THE DAY...LEAVING BEHIND SUBSIDENCE DURING THE AFTERNOON/PEAK
HEATING HOURS. ALSO...ALL GUIDANCE INDICATES WINDS IN THE 700-500MB
LAYER WILL BE RELATIVELY LIGHT /10KTS OR LESS/ FROM PHOENIX EASTWARD
WHICH IS CERTAINLY UNFAVORABLE FOR ORGANIZED CONVECTION. SOMEWHAT
STRONGER WINDS WILL BE IN PLACE FROM YUMA WESTWARD TO THE COASTAL
MOUNTAINS WHICH LEADS ME TO BELIEVE OUR WESTERN LOCATIONS MAY SEE
ACTIVITY TODAY AS THE UPPER LEVEL BAJA CIRCULATION MOVES OVERHEAD.
ONE FACTOR THAT COULD FAVOR STORMS ACROSS PHOENIX TODAY...THE
REMNANT CONVECTION PRESENTLY OVER SOUTHERN ARIZONA WILL LIKELY SPAWN
AN MCV LATER THIS MORNING WHICH COULD SERVE AS A TRIGGER THIS
AFTERNOON. GOING TO STICK WITH THE IDEA OF SLIGHTLY HIGHER THAN
CLIMO POPS FOR TODAY AND TONIGHT GIVEN 3 POSSIBLE TRIGGERS IN THE
AREA...BUT AM LEANING TOWARD IT BEING A DOWN DAY ACROSS THE PHOENIX
AREA GIVEN WEAK WINDS ALOFT.

ALL MODELS AGREE THAT UPPER LEVEL WINDS WILL BECOME WESTERLY ON
TUESDAY WHICH WILL DRAMATICALLY DECREASE THE AMOUNT OF CONVECTION
ACROSS THE AREA AND RE-ORIENT MOST OF IT INTO THE MOUNTAINS EAST OF
PHOENIX. MEAN BL MIXING RATIOS DROP TO AROUND 6 G/KG DURING THE
MIDDLE PART OF THE WEEK AND EVEN CLIMO POPS MAY END UP BEING TOO
HIGH. MADE SLIGHT REDUCTIONS TO POPS ACROSS THE BOARD FROM TUESDAY
THROUGH THURSDAY BASED ON LATEST GUIDANCE WITH THE HIGHEST VALUES
DISPLACED WELL EAST OF THE DESERTS. THE MONSOON MOISTURE WONT BE
TERRIBLY FAR AWAY...WINDS PER THE TWO-THREE MOST RECENT RUNS OF THE
EUROPEAN AND GFS BRING INCREASED MIXING RATIOS BACK INTO THE AREA
FRIDAY AND ALMOST CERTAINLY BY THE WEEKEND. PRECIP CHANCES ONCE
AGAIN LOOK FAVORABLE FOR THE LATTER PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST PERIOD
ALTHOUGH ITS STILL DIFFICULT TO HIGHLIGHT ONE DAY VS ANOTHER UNTIL
WE GET A LITTLE CLOSER.

AS FOR TEMPERATURES TODAY...EXPECTING SIMILAR READINGS AS SUNDAY
GIVEN A CLOUDY START TO THE MORNING WITH HIGHS VERY CLOSE TO NORMAL
THIS AFTERNOON. WITH DRIER AIR WORKING INTO THE AREA MID
WEEK...TEMPS WILL LIKELY TAKE A RUN INTO THE 105-109 RANGE ACROSS
THE DESERTS. CONSEQUENTLY...THERE SHOULD BE A SLIGHT DROP-OFF BY THE
WEEKEND AS DEEPER MOISTURE MAKES ITS WAY BACK INTO THE AREA. STILL
ABOVE 100 BUT SOMEWHAT LOWER THAN THE MID WEEK VALUES.

&&

.AVIATION...
SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA INCLUDING KPHX...KIWA...AND KSDL...
SHOWERS AND STORMS OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN EAST AND SOUTHEAST OF
PHOENIX IS EXPECTED TO PROPAGATE TOWARDS KPHX-KIWA-KSDL THROUGH LATE
THIS EVENING. STORM OUTFLOWS SHOULD SWITCH WINDS TO AN EASTERLY
DIRECTION BETWEEN 05-07Z...WITH A MODEST GUSTY WIND POTENTIAL. SOME
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS SHOULD MAKE THEIR WAY INTO
THE PHOENIX AREA...BUT COVERAGE SHOULD BE LIMITED ENOUGH TO NOT
MENTION IN KPHX AND KSDL TAFS.

SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA AND SOUTHWEST ARIZONA INCLUDING KIPL AND KBLH...
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES EXPECTED AT LEAST INTO THE EARLY OVERNIGHT WITH A
RELATIVELY LOW THUNDERSTORM CHANCE STARTING LATE TONIGHT INTO MONDAY
MORNING. BACKGROUND WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT THROUGH THE PERIOD...BUT
A SMALL CHANCE OF STORM OUTFLOWS AND GUSTY WINDS ARE POSSIBLE WITH
ANY STORMS THAT DEVELOP TONIGHT INTO MONDAY.

AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDED TAFS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...
NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND HIGHER RELATIVE HUMIDITY LEVELS ARE
EXPECTED. MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY LEVELS WILL RANGE FROM 15 TO 25
PERCENT AND RECOVER OVERNIGHT TO 35 TO 45 PERCENT. THERE WILL BE A
DAILY THREAT OF AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS...BUT THESE WILL
BE MAINLY CONFINED TO THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA.
WINDS WILL BE GENERALLY LESS THAN 15 MPH...EXCEPT IN THE VICINITY OF
THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

AZ...NONE.

CA...NONE.

&&

$$

VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/PHOENIX

DISCUSSION...LEINS
AVIATION...KUHLMAN
FIRE WEATHER...HIRSCH/MCLANE






000
FXUS65 KPSR 280412
AFDPSR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PHOENIX AZ
912 PM MST SUN JUL 27 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A RELATIVELY ACTIVE MONSOON PATTERN WILL LAST THROUGH MONDAY AS A
SERIES OF DISTURBANCES MOVE NORTHWARD THROUGH SOUTHERN ARIZONA AND
SOUTHEAST CA...INCREASING THE THREAT FOR THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE
REGION. MONSOON MOISTURE WILL LIKELY REMAIN ACROSS THE REGION
THROUGH THE EARLY PART OF THIS WEEK...WITH A CHANCE FOR AFTERNOON
AND EVENING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EACH DAY. SOME REDUCTION IN
MONSOON ACTIVITY IS POSSIBLE BY THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK AS WESTERLY
FLOW ALOFT BRINGS SOMEWHAT DRIER AIR INTO THE REGION.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
A RATHER COMPLEX WEATHER PICTURE EXISTS ACROSS THE REGION THIS
EVENING WITH TWO STRONG MID-LEVEL CIRCULATIONS AFFECTING MONSOON
ACTIVITY. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY HAS SHOWN ONE CIRCULATION MOVING
NORTHWARD ACROSS THE BAJA PENINSULA WITH LITTLE TO NO ACTIVE STORMS
ASSOCIATED WITH THE FEATURE. THE OTHER MORE COMPACT CIRCULATION
MOVED THROUGH SOUTHEAST ARIZONA AND SOUTHWEST NEW MEXICO THIS
AFTERNOON AND CONTINUES TO PROGRESS TO THE NORTH NORTHWEST ALONG THE
ARIZONA/NEW MEXICO STATE LINE. THIS FEATURE PROMPTED SEVERAL
CLUSTERS OF THUNDERSTORMS...BUT MOST HAVE JUST CLIPPED OUR FAR
EASTERN ZONES. IN BETWEEN THESE FEATURES...AN AREA OF SUBSIDENCE HAS
SUPPRESSED ANY STORM DEVELOPMENT ACROSS FROM THE LOWER COLORADO
RIVER VALLEY THROUGH MUCH OF SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA. CURRENT RADAR
IMAGERY SHOWS ANOTHER CLUSTER OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TRACKING
NORTH NORTHWEST ACROSS SOUTHEAST ARIZONA.

00Z PHOENIX RAOB WAS NOT TOO PROMISING TO ALLOW FOR STORMS TO
PROPAGATE THROUGH MUCH OF THE LOWER DESERTS...BUT THE TUCSON RAOB
SHOWED MUCH MORE  INSTABILITY...ESPECIALLY IN THE MID LEVELS. THE
WAY THE CLUSTER OF STORMS HAS BEEN PROPAGATING OVER THE PAST COUPLE
HOURS...THE COLD POOL DOESN/T SEEM TO BE IMPRESSIVELY STRONG...SO
OUTFLOWS ARE NOT OVERLY ROBUST AND FURTHER STORM DEVELOPMENT ALONG
OUTFLOWS HAS BEEN LIMITED. EXPECT THESE SHOWERS AND STORMS TO
CONTINUE NORTHWESTWARD INTO THE EASTERN PHOENIX AREA LATE THIS
EVENING WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF SOME STRONG GUSTY WINDS. HAVE
DRAMATICALLY TRIMMED POPS FOR LATE THIS EVENING AND THE OVERNIGHT
PERIOD FROM PHOENIX WESTWARD...BUT HAVE KEPT AT LEAST SLIGHT CHANCE
POPS AREAWIDE.

DECENT MOISTURE WILL REMAIN IN THE AREA THROUGH MONDAY WITH
CONTINUED STORM CHANCES...BUT MODELS INDICATE A DRYING WESTERLY FLOW
WILL SET UP STARTING TUESDAY. TUESDAY MAY BE A BIT OF A TRANSITION
DAY WITH STORMS MAINLY FOCUSED ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN AREAS...BUT
CAN/T RULE OUT A FEW STORMS ACROSS THE LOWER DESERTS. LATEST MODEL
RUNS HAVE DEFINITELY BEEN TRENDING TOWARD A SOMEWHAT DRIER MID WEEK
PERIOD WITH 1000-700MB MIXING RATIOS DROPPING INTO THE 6-8 G/KG
RANGE AND PWATS DROPPING TO BETWEEN 1.0 AND 1.5 INCHES. AT THIS
MOMENT...IT LOOKS LIKE ANY MONSOON ACTIVITY FOR WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY WILL LIKELY BE CONFINED TO FAR EASTERN ARIZONA. MODELS THEN
POINT TOWARD A BIT OF MOISTURE RESURGENCE FOR FRIDAY INTO NEXT
SATURDAY.

TEMPERATURES FOR THE PERIOD SHOULD FALL WITHIN A SMALL TEMPERATURE
RANGE OF RIGHT AROUND SEASONAL NORMALS. SOME AREAS MAY APPROACH THE
110 DEGREE MARK FOR HIGHS ON WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY AS DRIER AIR
ALLOWS FOR A BUMP IN TEMPERATURES.

&&

.AVIATION...
SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA INCLUDING KPHX...KIWA...AND KSDL...
SHOWERS AND STORMS OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN EAST AND SOUTHEAST OF
PHOENIX IS EXPECTED TO PROPAGATE TOWARDS KPHX-KIWA-KSDL THROUGH LATE
THIS EVENING. STORM OUTFLOWS SHOULD SWITCH WINDS TO AN EASTERLY
DIRECTION BETWEEN 05-07Z...WITH A MODEST GUSTY WIND POTENTIAL. SOME
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS SHOULD MAKE THEIR WAY INTO
THE PHOENIX AREA...BUT COVERAGE SHOULD BE LIMITED ENOUGH TO NOT
MENTION IN KPHX AND KSDL TAFS.

SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA AND SOUTHWEST ARIZONA INCLUDING KIPL AND KBLH...
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES EXPECTED AT LEAST INTO THE EARLY OVERNIGHT WITH A
RELATIVELY LOW THUNDERSTORM CHANCE STARTING LATE TONIGHT INTO MONDAY
MORNING. BACKGROUND WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT THROUGH THE PERIOD...BUT
A SMALL CHANCE OF STORM OUTFLOWS AND GUSTY WINDS ARE POSSIBLE WITH
ANY STORMS THAT DEVELOP TONIGHT INTO MONDAY.

AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDED TAFS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...
NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND HIGHER RELATIVE HUMIDITY LEVELS ARE
EXPECTED. MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY LEVELS WILL RANGE FROM 15 TO 25
PERCENT AND RECOVER OVERNIGHT TO 35 TO 45 PERCENT. THERE WILL BE A
DAILY THREAT OF AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS...BUT THESE WILL
BE MAINLY CONFINED TO THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA.
WINDS WILL BE GENERALLY LESS THAN 15 MPH...EXCEPT IN THE VICINITY OF
THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

AZ...NONE.

CA...NONE.

&&

$$

VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/PHOENIX

DISCUSSION...KUHLMAN
AVIATION...KUHLMAN
FIRE WEATHER...HIRSCH/MCLANE









000
FXUS65 KPSR 280412
AFDPSR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PHOENIX AZ
912 PM MST SUN JUL 27 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A RELATIVELY ACTIVE MONSOON PATTERN WILL LAST THROUGH MONDAY AS A
SERIES OF DISTURBANCES MOVE NORTHWARD THROUGH SOUTHERN ARIZONA AND
SOUTHEAST CA...INCREASING THE THREAT FOR THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE
REGION. MONSOON MOISTURE WILL LIKELY REMAIN ACROSS THE REGION
THROUGH THE EARLY PART OF THIS WEEK...WITH A CHANCE FOR AFTERNOON
AND EVENING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EACH DAY. SOME REDUCTION IN
MONSOON ACTIVITY IS POSSIBLE BY THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK AS WESTERLY
FLOW ALOFT BRINGS SOMEWHAT DRIER AIR INTO THE REGION.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
A RATHER COMPLEX WEATHER PICTURE EXISTS ACROSS THE REGION THIS
EVENING WITH TWO STRONG MID-LEVEL CIRCULATIONS AFFECTING MONSOON
ACTIVITY. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY HAS SHOWN ONE CIRCULATION MOVING
NORTHWARD ACROSS THE BAJA PENINSULA WITH LITTLE TO NO ACTIVE STORMS
ASSOCIATED WITH THE FEATURE. THE OTHER MORE COMPACT CIRCULATION
MOVED THROUGH SOUTHEAST ARIZONA AND SOUTHWEST NEW MEXICO THIS
AFTERNOON AND CONTINUES TO PROGRESS TO THE NORTH NORTHWEST ALONG THE
ARIZONA/NEW MEXICO STATE LINE. THIS FEATURE PROMPTED SEVERAL
CLUSTERS OF THUNDERSTORMS...BUT MOST HAVE JUST CLIPPED OUR FAR
EASTERN ZONES. IN BETWEEN THESE FEATURES...AN AREA OF SUBSIDENCE HAS
SUPPRESSED ANY STORM DEVELOPMENT ACROSS FROM THE LOWER COLORADO
RIVER VALLEY THROUGH MUCH OF SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA. CURRENT RADAR
IMAGERY SHOWS ANOTHER CLUSTER OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TRACKING
NORTH NORTHWEST ACROSS SOUTHEAST ARIZONA.

00Z PHOENIX RAOB WAS NOT TOO PROMISING TO ALLOW FOR STORMS TO
PROPAGATE THROUGH MUCH OF THE LOWER DESERTS...BUT THE TUCSON RAOB
SHOWED MUCH MORE  INSTABILITY...ESPECIALLY IN THE MID LEVELS. THE
WAY THE CLUSTER OF STORMS HAS BEEN PROPAGATING OVER THE PAST COUPLE
HOURS...THE COLD POOL DOESN/T SEEM TO BE IMPRESSIVELY STRONG...SO
OUTFLOWS ARE NOT OVERLY ROBUST AND FURTHER STORM DEVELOPMENT ALONG
OUTFLOWS HAS BEEN LIMITED. EXPECT THESE SHOWERS AND STORMS TO
CONTINUE NORTHWESTWARD INTO THE EASTERN PHOENIX AREA LATE THIS
EVENING WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF SOME STRONG GUSTY WINDS. HAVE
DRAMATICALLY TRIMMED POPS FOR LATE THIS EVENING AND THE OVERNIGHT
PERIOD FROM PHOENIX WESTWARD...BUT HAVE KEPT AT LEAST SLIGHT CHANCE
POPS AREAWIDE.

DECENT MOISTURE WILL REMAIN IN THE AREA THROUGH MONDAY WITH
CONTINUED STORM CHANCES...BUT MODELS INDICATE A DRYING WESTERLY FLOW
WILL SET UP STARTING TUESDAY. TUESDAY MAY BE A BIT OF A TRANSITION
DAY WITH STORMS MAINLY FOCUSED ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN AREAS...BUT
CAN/T RULE OUT A FEW STORMS ACROSS THE LOWER DESERTS. LATEST MODEL
RUNS HAVE DEFINITELY BEEN TRENDING TOWARD A SOMEWHAT DRIER MID WEEK
PERIOD WITH 1000-700MB MIXING RATIOS DROPPING INTO THE 6-8 G/KG
RANGE AND PWATS DROPPING TO BETWEEN 1.0 AND 1.5 INCHES. AT THIS
MOMENT...IT LOOKS LIKE ANY MONSOON ACTIVITY FOR WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY WILL LIKELY BE CONFINED TO FAR EASTERN ARIZONA. MODELS THEN
POINT TOWARD A BIT OF MOISTURE RESURGENCE FOR FRIDAY INTO NEXT
SATURDAY.

TEMPERATURES FOR THE PERIOD SHOULD FALL WITHIN A SMALL TEMPERATURE
RANGE OF RIGHT AROUND SEASONAL NORMALS. SOME AREAS MAY APPROACH THE
110 DEGREE MARK FOR HIGHS ON WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY AS DRIER AIR
ALLOWS FOR A BUMP IN TEMPERATURES.

&&

.AVIATION...
SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA INCLUDING KPHX...KIWA...AND KSDL...
SHOWERS AND STORMS OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN EAST AND SOUTHEAST OF
PHOENIX IS EXPECTED TO PROPAGATE TOWARDS KPHX-KIWA-KSDL THROUGH LATE
THIS EVENING. STORM OUTFLOWS SHOULD SWITCH WINDS TO AN EASTERLY
DIRECTION BETWEEN 05-07Z...WITH A MODEST GUSTY WIND POTENTIAL. SOME
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS SHOULD MAKE THEIR WAY INTO
THE PHOENIX AREA...BUT COVERAGE SHOULD BE LIMITED ENOUGH TO NOT
MENTION IN KPHX AND KSDL TAFS.

SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA AND SOUTHWEST ARIZONA INCLUDING KIPL AND KBLH...
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES EXPECTED AT LEAST INTO THE EARLY OVERNIGHT WITH A
RELATIVELY LOW THUNDERSTORM CHANCE STARTING LATE TONIGHT INTO MONDAY
MORNING. BACKGROUND WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT THROUGH THE PERIOD...BUT
A SMALL CHANCE OF STORM OUTFLOWS AND GUSTY WINDS ARE POSSIBLE WITH
ANY STORMS THAT DEVELOP TONIGHT INTO MONDAY.

AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDED TAFS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...
NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND HIGHER RELATIVE HUMIDITY LEVELS ARE
EXPECTED. MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY LEVELS WILL RANGE FROM 15 TO 25
PERCENT AND RECOVER OVERNIGHT TO 35 TO 45 PERCENT. THERE WILL BE A
DAILY THREAT OF AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS...BUT THESE WILL
BE MAINLY CONFINED TO THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA.
WINDS WILL BE GENERALLY LESS THAN 15 MPH...EXCEPT IN THE VICINITY OF
THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

AZ...NONE.

CA...NONE.

&&

$$

VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/PHOENIX

DISCUSSION...KUHLMAN
AVIATION...KUHLMAN
FIRE WEATHER...HIRSCH/MCLANE









000
FXUS65 KPSR 280412
AFDPSR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PHOENIX AZ
912 PM MST SUN JUL 27 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A RELATIVELY ACTIVE MONSOON PATTERN WILL LAST THROUGH MONDAY AS A
SERIES OF DISTURBANCES MOVE NORTHWARD THROUGH SOUTHERN ARIZONA AND
SOUTHEAST CA...INCREASING THE THREAT FOR THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE
REGION. MONSOON MOISTURE WILL LIKELY REMAIN ACROSS THE REGION
THROUGH THE EARLY PART OF THIS WEEK...WITH A CHANCE FOR AFTERNOON
AND EVENING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EACH DAY. SOME REDUCTION IN
MONSOON ACTIVITY IS POSSIBLE BY THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK AS WESTERLY
FLOW ALOFT BRINGS SOMEWHAT DRIER AIR INTO THE REGION.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
A RATHER COMPLEX WEATHER PICTURE EXISTS ACROSS THE REGION THIS
EVENING WITH TWO STRONG MID-LEVEL CIRCULATIONS AFFECTING MONSOON
ACTIVITY. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY HAS SHOWN ONE CIRCULATION MOVING
NORTHWARD ACROSS THE BAJA PENINSULA WITH LITTLE TO NO ACTIVE STORMS
ASSOCIATED WITH THE FEATURE. THE OTHER MORE COMPACT CIRCULATION
MOVED THROUGH SOUTHEAST ARIZONA AND SOUTHWEST NEW MEXICO THIS
AFTERNOON AND CONTINUES TO PROGRESS TO THE NORTH NORTHWEST ALONG THE
ARIZONA/NEW MEXICO STATE LINE. THIS FEATURE PROMPTED SEVERAL
CLUSTERS OF THUNDERSTORMS...BUT MOST HAVE JUST CLIPPED OUR FAR
EASTERN ZONES. IN BETWEEN THESE FEATURES...AN AREA OF SUBSIDENCE HAS
SUPPRESSED ANY STORM DEVELOPMENT ACROSS FROM THE LOWER COLORADO
RIVER VALLEY THROUGH MUCH OF SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA. CURRENT RADAR
IMAGERY SHOWS ANOTHER CLUSTER OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TRACKING
NORTH NORTHWEST ACROSS SOUTHEAST ARIZONA.

00Z PHOENIX RAOB WAS NOT TOO PROMISING TO ALLOW FOR STORMS TO
PROPAGATE THROUGH MUCH OF THE LOWER DESERTS...BUT THE TUCSON RAOB
SHOWED MUCH MORE  INSTABILITY...ESPECIALLY IN THE MID LEVELS. THE
WAY THE CLUSTER OF STORMS HAS BEEN PROPAGATING OVER THE PAST COUPLE
HOURS...THE COLD POOL DOESN/T SEEM TO BE IMPRESSIVELY STRONG...SO
OUTFLOWS ARE NOT OVERLY ROBUST AND FURTHER STORM DEVELOPMENT ALONG
OUTFLOWS HAS BEEN LIMITED. EXPECT THESE SHOWERS AND STORMS TO
CONTINUE NORTHWESTWARD INTO THE EASTERN PHOENIX AREA LATE THIS
EVENING WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF SOME STRONG GUSTY WINDS. HAVE
DRAMATICALLY TRIMMED POPS FOR LATE THIS EVENING AND THE OVERNIGHT
PERIOD FROM PHOENIX WESTWARD...BUT HAVE KEPT AT LEAST SLIGHT CHANCE
POPS AREAWIDE.

DECENT MOISTURE WILL REMAIN IN THE AREA THROUGH MONDAY WITH
CONTINUED STORM CHANCES...BUT MODELS INDICATE A DRYING WESTERLY FLOW
WILL SET UP STARTING TUESDAY. TUESDAY MAY BE A BIT OF A TRANSITION
DAY WITH STORMS MAINLY FOCUSED ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN AREAS...BUT
CAN/T RULE OUT A FEW STORMS ACROSS THE LOWER DESERTS. LATEST MODEL
RUNS HAVE DEFINITELY BEEN TRENDING TOWARD A SOMEWHAT DRIER MID WEEK
PERIOD WITH 1000-700MB MIXING RATIOS DROPPING INTO THE 6-8 G/KG
RANGE AND PWATS DROPPING TO BETWEEN 1.0 AND 1.5 INCHES. AT THIS
MOMENT...IT LOOKS LIKE ANY MONSOON ACTIVITY FOR WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY WILL LIKELY BE CONFINED TO FAR EASTERN ARIZONA. MODELS THEN
POINT TOWARD A BIT OF MOISTURE RESURGENCE FOR FRIDAY INTO NEXT
SATURDAY.

TEMPERATURES FOR THE PERIOD SHOULD FALL WITHIN A SMALL TEMPERATURE
RANGE OF RIGHT AROUND SEASONAL NORMALS. SOME AREAS MAY APPROACH THE
110 DEGREE MARK FOR HIGHS ON WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY AS DRIER AIR
ALLOWS FOR A BUMP IN TEMPERATURES.

&&

.AVIATION...
SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA INCLUDING KPHX...KIWA...AND KSDL...
SHOWERS AND STORMS OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN EAST AND SOUTHEAST OF
PHOENIX IS EXPECTED TO PROPAGATE TOWARDS KPHX-KIWA-KSDL THROUGH LATE
THIS EVENING. STORM OUTFLOWS SHOULD SWITCH WINDS TO AN EASTERLY
DIRECTION BETWEEN 05-07Z...WITH A MODEST GUSTY WIND POTENTIAL. SOME
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS SHOULD MAKE THEIR WAY INTO
THE PHOENIX AREA...BUT COVERAGE SHOULD BE LIMITED ENOUGH TO NOT
MENTION IN KPHX AND KSDL TAFS.

SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA AND SOUTHWEST ARIZONA INCLUDING KIPL AND KBLH...
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES EXPECTED AT LEAST INTO THE EARLY OVERNIGHT WITH A
RELATIVELY LOW THUNDERSTORM CHANCE STARTING LATE TONIGHT INTO MONDAY
MORNING. BACKGROUND WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT THROUGH THE PERIOD...BUT
A SMALL CHANCE OF STORM OUTFLOWS AND GUSTY WINDS ARE POSSIBLE WITH
ANY STORMS THAT DEVELOP TONIGHT INTO MONDAY.

AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDED TAFS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...
NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND HIGHER RELATIVE HUMIDITY LEVELS ARE
EXPECTED. MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY LEVELS WILL RANGE FROM 15 TO 25
PERCENT AND RECOVER OVERNIGHT TO 35 TO 45 PERCENT. THERE WILL BE A
DAILY THREAT OF AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS...BUT THESE WILL
BE MAINLY CONFINED TO THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA.
WINDS WILL BE GENERALLY LESS THAN 15 MPH...EXCEPT IN THE VICINITY OF
THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

AZ...NONE.

CA...NONE.

&&

$$

VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/PHOENIX

DISCUSSION...KUHLMAN
AVIATION...KUHLMAN
FIRE WEATHER...HIRSCH/MCLANE









000
FXUS65 KPSR 280412
AFDPSR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PHOENIX AZ
912 PM MST SUN JUL 27 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A RELATIVELY ACTIVE MONSOON PATTERN WILL LAST THROUGH MONDAY AS A
SERIES OF DISTURBANCES MOVE NORTHWARD THROUGH SOUTHERN ARIZONA AND
SOUTHEAST CA...INCREASING THE THREAT FOR THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE
REGION. MONSOON MOISTURE WILL LIKELY REMAIN ACROSS THE REGION
THROUGH THE EARLY PART OF THIS WEEK...WITH A CHANCE FOR AFTERNOON
AND EVENING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EACH DAY. SOME REDUCTION IN
MONSOON ACTIVITY IS POSSIBLE BY THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK AS WESTERLY
FLOW ALOFT BRINGS SOMEWHAT DRIER AIR INTO THE REGION.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
A RATHER COMPLEX WEATHER PICTURE EXISTS ACROSS THE REGION THIS
EVENING WITH TWO STRONG MID-LEVEL CIRCULATIONS AFFECTING MONSOON
ACTIVITY. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY HAS SHOWN ONE CIRCULATION MOVING
NORTHWARD ACROSS THE BAJA PENINSULA WITH LITTLE TO NO ACTIVE STORMS
ASSOCIATED WITH THE FEATURE. THE OTHER MORE COMPACT CIRCULATION
MOVED THROUGH SOUTHEAST ARIZONA AND SOUTHWEST NEW MEXICO THIS
AFTERNOON AND CONTINUES TO PROGRESS TO THE NORTH NORTHWEST ALONG THE
ARIZONA/NEW MEXICO STATE LINE. THIS FEATURE PROMPTED SEVERAL
CLUSTERS OF THUNDERSTORMS...BUT MOST HAVE JUST CLIPPED OUR FAR
EASTERN ZONES. IN BETWEEN THESE FEATURES...AN AREA OF SUBSIDENCE HAS
SUPPRESSED ANY STORM DEVELOPMENT ACROSS FROM THE LOWER COLORADO
RIVER VALLEY THROUGH MUCH OF SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA. CURRENT RADAR
IMAGERY SHOWS ANOTHER CLUSTER OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TRACKING
NORTH NORTHWEST ACROSS SOUTHEAST ARIZONA.

00Z PHOENIX RAOB WAS NOT TOO PROMISING TO ALLOW FOR STORMS TO
PROPAGATE THROUGH MUCH OF THE LOWER DESERTS...BUT THE TUCSON RAOB
SHOWED MUCH MORE  INSTABILITY...ESPECIALLY IN THE MID LEVELS. THE
WAY THE CLUSTER OF STORMS HAS BEEN PROPAGATING OVER THE PAST COUPLE
HOURS...THE COLD POOL DOESN/T SEEM TO BE IMPRESSIVELY STRONG...SO
OUTFLOWS ARE NOT OVERLY ROBUST AND FURTHER STORM DEVELOPMENT ALONG
OUTFLOWS HAS BEEN LIMITED. EXPECT THESE SHOWERS AND STORMS TO
CONTINUE NORTHWESTWARD INTO THE EASTERN PHOENIX AREA LATE THIS
EVENING WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF SOME STRONG GUSTY WINDS. HAVE
DRAMATICALLY TRIMMED POPS FOR LATE THIS EVENING AND THE OVERNIGHT
PERIOD FROM PHOENIX WESTWARD...BUT HAVE KEPT AT LEAST SLIGHT CHANCE
POPS AREAWIDE.

DECENT MOISTURE WILL REMAIN IN THE AREA THROUGH MONDAY WITH
CONTINUED STORM CHANCES...BUT MODELS INDICATE A DRYING WESTERLY FLOW
WILL SET UP STARTING TUESDAY. TUESDAY MAY BE A BIT OF A TRANSITION
DAY WITH STORMS MAINLY FOCUSED ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN AREAS...BUT
CAN/T RULE OUT A FEW STORMS ACROSS THE LOWER DESERTS. LATEST MODEL
RUNS HAVE DEFINITELY BEEN TRENDING TOWARD A SOMEWHAT DRIER MID WEEK
PERIOD WITH 1000-700MB MIXING RATIOS DROPPING INTO THE 6-8 G/KG
RANGE AND PWATS DROPPING TO BETWEEN 1.0 AND 1.5 INCHES. AT THIS
MOMENT...IT LOOKS LIKE ANY MONSOON ACTIVITY FOR WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY WILL LIKELY BE CONFINED TO FAR EASTERN ARIZONA. MODELS THEN
POINT TOWARD A BIT OF MOISTURE RESURGENCE FOR FRIDAY INTO NEXT
SATURDAY.

TEMPERATURES FOR THE PERIOD SHOULD FALL WITHIN A SMALL TEMPERATURE
RANGE OF RIGHT AROUND SEASONAL NORMALS. SOME AREAS MAY APPROACH THE
110 DEGREE MARK FOR HIGHS ON WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY AS DRIER AIR
ALLOWS FOR A BUMP IN TEMPERATURES.

&&

.AVIATION...
SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA INCLUDING KPHX...KIWA...AND KSDL...
SHOWERS AND STORMS OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN EAST AND SOUTHEAST OF
PHOENIX IS EXPECTED TO PROPAGATE TOWARDS KPHX-KIWA-KSDL THROUGH LATE
THIS EVENING. STORM OUTFLOWS SHOULD SWITCH WINDS TO AN EASTERLY
DIRECTION BETWEEN 05-07Z...WITH A MODEST GUSTY WIND POTENTIAL. SOME
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS SHOULD MAKE THEIR WAY INTO
THE PHOENIX AREA...BUT COVERAGE SHOULD BE LIMITED ENOUGH TO NOT
MENTION IN KPHX AND KSDL TAFS.

SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA AND SOUTHWEST ARIZONA INCLUDING KIPL AND KBLH...
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES EXPECTED AT LEAST INTO THE EARLY OVERNIGHT WITH A
RELATIVELY LOW THUNDERSTORM CHANCE STARTING LATE TONIGHT INTO MONDAY
MORNING. BACKGROUND WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT THROUGH THE PERIOD...BUT
A SMALL CHANCE OF STORM OUTFLOWS AND GUSTY WINDS ARE POSSIBLE WITH
ANY STORMS THAT DEVELOP TONIGHT INTO MONDAY.

AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDED TAFS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...
NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND HIGHER RELATIVE HUMIDITY LEVELS ARE
EXPECTED. MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY LEVELS WILL RANGE FROM 15 TO 25
PERCENT AND RECOVER OVERNIGHT TO 35 TO 45 PERCENT. THERE WILL BE A
DAILY THREAT OF AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS...BUT THESE WILL
BE MAINLY CONFINED TO THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA.
WINDS WILL BE GENERALLY LESS THAN 15 MPH...EXCEPT IN THE VICINITY OF
THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

AZ...NONE.

CA...NONE.

&&

$$

VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/PHOENIX

DISCUSSION...KUHLMAN
AVIATION...KUHLMAN
FIRE WEATHER...HIRSCH/MCLANE









000
FXUS65 KTWC 280410
AFDTWC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ
911 PM MST SUN JUL 27 2014

.SYNOPSIS...EXPECT A GOOD CHANCE OF MAINLY AFTERNOON AND EVENING
THUNDERSTORMS TO START THE WEEK. SOME STORMS WILL GENERATE LOCALLY
HEAVY RAIN AND STRONG GUSTY WINDS. FEWER STORMS ARE EXPECTED AROUND
MID WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVERHEAD ACCOMPANIED BY SEVERAL
DEGREES OF HEATING BY TUESDAY OR WEDNESDAY. A STRONGER CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS RETURNS ONCE AGAIN TO END THE WEEK AND TAKE US INTO
NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.DISCUSSION...EARLIER THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING STORMS REMAINED
CONFINED MOSTLY TO PORTIONS OF GREENLEE...GRAHAM AND COCHISE
COUNTIES...WITH SEVERAL SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS EARLIER ALONG WITH
HEAVY RAINFALL THAT PROMPTED BOTH SMALL STREAM FLOOD ADVISORIES AND
A COUPLE OF FLASH FLOOD WARNINGS. ONE OF THE FIRST STORMS TO DEVELOP
WAS OVER NORTHEAST SANTA CRUZ COUNTY AND SOUTHEAST PIMA COUNTY...
WHICH BECAME SEVERE AND PRODUCED SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL ACCORDING TO
RADAR ESTIMATES.

AT ANY RATE...THE STORMS THAT MARCHED ACROSS MUCH OF COCHISE COUNTY
FROM NEW MEXICO MADE IT AS FAR AS EXTREME NORTHWEST COCHISE COUNTY
AND INTO EXTREME NORTHEAST PIMA COUNTY ON THE EAST SIDE OF THE
CATALINAS...BUT DECREASED IN INTENSITY AND ARE CURRENTLY SPILLING
INTO EASTERN PORTIONS OF PINAL COUNTY. NUMEROUS OUTFLOWS MOVING
THROUGH THE METRO AREA TO THE SOUTHWEST THROUGH NORTHEAST PIMA
COUNTY...WITH GUSTY WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH THESE OUTFLOWS. SO FAR NOT
MUCH DEVELOPMENT ASSOCIATED WITH THESE BOUNDARIES...WITH THE
EXCEPTION OF A LONE SHOWER NEAR THE TUCSON INTL AIRPORT. FARTHER TO
THE SOUTH...OVER SOUTH CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST COCHISE COUNTY...STORMS
CONTINUE FROM NEAR TOMBSTONE SOUTHWARD TO HEREFORD AND NACO AND JUST
SOUTHWEST OF BISBEE. THESE STORMS CONTINUE INTO NORTHEAST SONORA.
MODELS SUCH AS THE HRRR AND 12Z RUN OF THE U OF A WRF/NAM AND GFS
SUGGEST THAT THE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THAT ARE CURRENTLY MOVING
TO THE NORTHWEST ACROSS SOUTHWEST COCHISE COUNTY WILL SPREAD THROUGH
PORTIONS OF SANTA CRUZ COUNTY AND EVENTUALLY INTO EASTERN PIMA
COUNTY BEFORE SLOWLY DIMINISHING LATE THIS EVENING OR OVERNIGHT. THE
REMNANT ACTIVITY OVER NORTHERN PORTIONS OF COCHISE COUNTY...WESTERN
GRAHAM COUNTY AND EASTERN PINAL WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE NORTHWEST IN
THE GENERAL DIRECTION OF THE PHOENIX AREA.

I INHERITED 50-60 PERCENT POPS FOR THIS EVENING FOR MUCH OF THE
FORECAST AREA...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE FAR WESTERN PORTIONS OF
PIMA COUNTY WHERE RAIN CHANCES ARE AT AROUND 40 PERCENT. FOR NOW I
THINK I WILL TRIM POPS BACK A BIT FOR AREAS THAT ALREADY GOT
HIT...SUCH AS GRAHAM AND EASTERN COCHISE COUNTY...BUT LEAVE THE REST
"AS IS". AFTER MIDNIGHT I HAVE BASICALLY ISOLATED TO SCATTERED TYPE
POPS GOING FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT. THIS SEEMS REASONABLE FOR
NOW...BUT MAY HAVE TO ISSUE ADDITIONAL UPDATES AS THE NIGHT
PROGRESSES BASED ON SATELLITE AND RADAR TRENDS.

&&

.AVIATION...VALID THRU 29/00Z.
ISOLD TO SCTD TSRA/SHRA E OF KTUS WILL PUSH WNW FOR THE REMAINDER OF
THIS EVENING WITH LINGERING ISOLD -SHRA AFTER MIDNIGHT OR 29/07Z.
MVFR CONDITIONS WITH THE STRONGER TSRA ALONG WITH WIND GUSTS TO NEAR
40-45 KTS. OTHERWISE CLOUD DECKS WILL GENERALLY BE AT 7-12K FT AGL
THRU THE PERIOD. TSRA/SHRA DVLPG AFTER 29/18Z ON MONDAY. AVIATION
DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR TAF AMENDMENTS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...SCATTERED MOSTLY AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS
FOR THE UPCOMING WEEK. EXPECT STRONG...GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS NEAR
THE STRONGER STORMS. OTHERWISE...NORMAL DIURNAL WIND TRENDS WILL
OCCUR WITH OCCASIONAL GUSTS DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS DUE TO
DAYTIME HEATING.

&&

.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...WE STILL HAVE THE STRONG IMPULSE COMING IN ON
OUR BRISK EASTERLY FLOW FROM CHIHUAHUA TONIGHT TO TAKE ADVANTAGE OF
DEEP MOISTURE IN PLACE (PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES BACK UP AROUND 1.4
TO 1.6 INCHES). DECENT SHEER PROFILE ABOVE 10K FEET AND SOLID STORM
STRUCTURE ENVIRONMENT FOR ORGANIZED OUTFLOWS.

STILL LOOKING AT A POSSIBLE DOWNTURN BY TUESDAY OR WEDNESDAY AND
LASTING INTO AT LEAST THURSDAY AS A SECONDARY HIGH CENTER
RECONSOLIDATES (BRIEFLY) NEARLY OVERHEAD. THIS WILL TEND TO PUSH
STORM ACTIVITY BACK TO BORDER AND MOUNTAIN AREAS WHILE WE HEAT UP
SEVERAL DEGREES (PERHAPS AGAIN CLIMBING TO A FEW DEGREES SHY OF
RECORD LEVELS).

THAT SECONDARY HIGH SHOULD WEAKEN LATE THURSDAY INTO EARLY FRIDAY
WITH THE RIDGE REORIENTING ONCE AGAIN INTO A MORE FAVORABLE POSITION
FOR STRONG THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE FOR SE AZ BY FRIDAY OR SATURDAY.

&&

.TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...YOUTUBE...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/TUCSON

CURRENT DISCUSSION...MOLLERE
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...MEYER/GLUECK







000
FXUS65 KFGZ 280352
AFDFGZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ
845 PM MST SUN JUL 27 2014

.SYNOPSIS...THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY CONTINUES ACROSS MUCH OF NORTHERN
ARIZONA THIS EVENING. AN ACTIVE MONSOON PATTERN WITH UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCES WILL PRODUCE SLOW MOVING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EACH
AFTERNOON AND EVENING THROUGH MONDAY. FROM TUESDAY ONWARD THE HIGH
PRESSURE RIDGE MOVES SOUTH TO A LESS FAVORABLE POSITION...RESULTING
IN A DOWNWARD TREND FOR STORMS.

&&

.DISCUSSION...ABUNDANT MONSOON MOISTURE...A UNSTABLE AIR MASS AND AN
UPPER LEVEL LOW MOVING THROUGH NORTHERN ARIZONA WILL KEEP US IN AN
ACTIVE MONSOON PATTERN THROUGH MONDAY. EXPECT ANOTHER ROUND OF
AFTERNOON AND EVENING STORMS LASTING TO AROUND MIDNIGHT.

FROM TUESDAY ONWARD...THE SUB TROPICAL RIDGE IS WELL ESTABLISHED ALONG
THE ARIZONA MEXICO BORDER REGION WHICH TENDS TO LIMIT THE DEEPER
MOISTURE ADVECTION FROM THE TROPICS...GRADUALLY LOWERING OUR
MOISTURE LEVELS AND CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS. LOWER GRADE MONSOON
ACTIVITY IS FORECAST DUE TO A DRIER AND MORE STABLE AIR MOVING UP
INTO THE REGION. CHANCES FOR SHOWERS HAVE BEEN SLIGHTLY LOWERED FOR
THE REST OF THE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 06Z PACKAGE...SCT SHRA/TSRA WITH ISOLD +TSRA
WILL CONTINUE. MVFR VSBY AND WIND GUSTS UP TO 35KTS PSBL IN THE
STRONGER STORMS. AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDMENTS.

&&

.FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC.........BOHLIN
AVIATION.......BOHLIN/DB

FOR NORTHERN ARIZONA WEATHER INFORMATION VISIT WEATHER.GOV/FLAGSTAFF






000
FXUS65 KPSR 272148 AAA
AFDPSR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PHOENIX AZ
250 PM MST SUN JUL 27 2014

.UPDATED...UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION...

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
AN ACTIVE MONSOON PATTERN APPEARS TO BE ON TAP FOR TODAY AS A WEAK
DISTURBANCE MOVES NORTHWESTWARD INTO SOUTHERN ARIZONA AND SOUTHEAST
CA...INCREASING THE THREAT FOR THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE REGION.
MONSOON MOISTURE WILL LIKELY REMAIN ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THE
EARLY PART OF THIS WEEK...WITH A CHANCE FOR AFTERNOON AND EVENING
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EACH DAY. SOME REDUCTION IN MONSOON
ACTIVITY IS POSSIBLE BY THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK AS WESTERLY FLOW
ALOFT BRINGS SOMEWHAT DRIER AIR INTO THE REGION.

&&

.DISCUSSION.../ISSUED 220 PM MDT/PDT 27 JULY/...
THE AFTERMATH OF THE PREVIOUS NIGHTS MCS KEPT CLOUD COVER ACROSS A
LARGE PORTION OF CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN ARIZONA THROUGH MID DAY.
LOWERED FORECAST MAX TEMPS FOR THE DAY...AND EXPECTING HEATING TO
TAKE OFF HERE IN THE AFTERNOON HOURS. CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY TONIGHT
LOOKS TO BE LATER RATHER THAN SOONER DUE TO THE DELAYED HEATING.
GOOD AMOUNT OF INSTABILITY IS IN PLACE OR BUILDING
UP...1000-1500J/KG OF MIXED LAYER CAPE. GENEROUS STEERING FLOW SPEED
OF 20-25 KTS /500-700MB/ AS WELL AS EAST-SOUTHEAST DIRECTIONAL FLOW
AS DEPICTED ON MDCRS AND FORECAST MODEL SOUNDINGS...ALONG WITH
PLENTY OF DEEP MOISTURE /PWAT GREATER THAN 1.6 INCH/ ARE VERY
FAVORABLE INGREDIENTS. NUMEROUS LOCAL HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS SUGGEST
CONVECTION WILL AGAIN START ALONG THE ARIZONA/NEW MEXICO BORDER AND
ACROSS FAR SOUTHEAST ARIZONA AND PROPAGATE
WEST/NORTHWESTWARD...WHICH SEEMS TO BE VERIFYING WELL AS OF 2100Z
WITH A CLUSTER OF STORMS JUST ENTERING APACHE AND GREENLEE COUNTIES
IN FAR EASTERN ARIZONA.

A DEFINITIVE MCV COULD BE SEEN ON SATELLITE THIS MORNING FROM
1600-1800Z PASSING THROUGH WESTERN ARIZONA UP THROUGH EASTERN
RIVERSIDE AND SAN BERNARDINO COUNTIES IN CALIFORNIA. NOW AS IT MOVES
INTO SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA AND SOUTHERN NEVADA...AN INVERTED TROUGH
WAVE FEATURE CONTINUES MOVING INTO SOUTHERN ARIZONA FROM NORTHERN
MEXICO. THIS WILL BE OUR DRIVING FORCE FOR CONVECTION
TONIGHT...CREATING OUR LIFT. EXPECTING STRONG WINDS...HEAVY RAIN
FROM STORMS THAT PERSIST OVER AREAS FOR A PERIOD OF TIME...BLOWING
DUST IS POSSIBLE WITH STRONG WINDS...AND LOTS OF LIGHTNING. AS WITH
EVENTS FROM LAST NIGHT...WINDS MAY BECOME VERY STRONG AS
THUNDERSTORMS FALL APART...SO A DOWNBURST IS VERY POSSIBLE AGAIN.

&&

.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION.../ISSUED AT 245 AM MST/PDT 27 JULY/...

DECENT MOISTURE WILL REMAIN IN THE AREA THROUGH MONDAY WITH
CONTINUED STORM CHANCES...BUT MODELS INDICATE A DRYING WESTERLY FLOW
WILL SET UP STARTING TUESDAY. TUESDAY MAY BE A BIT OF A TRANSITION
DAY WITH STORMS MAINLY FOCUSED ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN AREAS...BUT
CAN/T RULE OUT A FEW STORMS ACROSS THE LOWER DESERTS. LATEST
MODEL RUNS HAVE DEFINITELY BEEN TRENDING TOWARD A SOMEWHAT DRIER MID
WEEK PERIOD WITH 1000-700MB MIXING RATIOS DROPPING INTO THE 6-8
G/KG RANGE AND PWATS DROPPING TO BETWEEN 1.0 AND 1.5 INCHES. AT THIS
MOMENT...IT LOOKS LIKE ANY MONSOON ACTIVITY FOR WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY WILL LIKELY BE CONFINED TO FAR EASTERN ARIZONA. MODELS THEN
POINT TOWARD A BIT OF MOISTURE RESURGENCE FOR FRIDAY INTO NEXT
SATURDAY.

TEMPERATURES FOR THE PERIOD SHOULD FALL WITHIN A SMALL TEMPERATURE
RANGE OF RIGHT AROUND SEASONAL NORMALS. SOME AREAS MAY APPROACH THE
110 DEGREE MARK FOR HIGHS ON WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY AS DRIER AIR
ALLOWS FOR A BUMP IN TEMPERATURES.

&&

.AVIATION...
SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA INCLUDING KPHX...KIWA...AND KSDL...
CONDITIONS ARE BECOMING INCREASINGLY FAVORABLE FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE PHOENIX METRO AREA THIS EVENING.
DISTANT STORMS WILL LIKELY PROPAGATE OUT OF THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF
EASTERN AND SOUTHEASTERN AZ AND TOWARDS KPHX-KIWA-KSDL. TIMING
APPEARS TO BE ON THE LATER SIDE...PERHAPS AFTER 03Z. IMPACTS INCLUDE
STRONG GUSTY WINDS...BLOWING DUST...LIGHTNING AND HEAVY RAIN.

SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA AND SOUTHWEST ARIZONA INCLUDING KIPL AND KBLH...
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES REMAIN RELATIVELY LOW ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN CA.
FOCUS FOR CONVECTION WILL GENERALLY REMAIN EAST OF THE AREA ACROSS
AZ. HOWEVER...THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE THAT AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY
CONTAINING BLOWING DUST COULD REACH KIPL-KBLH AS LATE AS 12Z MONDAY.

AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDED TAFS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...
NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND HIGHER RELATIVE HUMIDITY LEVELS ARE
EXPECTED. MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY LEVELS WILL RANGE FROM 15 TO 25
PERCENT AND RECOVER OVERNIGHT TO 35 TO 45 PERCENT. THERE WILL BE A
DAILY THREAT OF AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS...BUT THESE WILL
BE MAINLY CONFINED TO THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA.
WINDS WILL BE GENERALLY LESS THAN 15 MPH...EXCEPT IN THE VICINITY OF
THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

AZ...NONE.

CA...NONE.

&&

$$

VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/PHOENIX

DISCUSSION...DEWEY
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...PERCHA/KUHLMAN
AVIATION...HIRSCH
FIRE WEATHER...HIRSCH/MCLANE






000
FXUS65 KPSR 272148 AAA
AFDPSR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PHOENIX AZ
250 PM MST SUN JUL 27 2014

.UPDATED...UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION...

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
AN ACTIVE MONSOON PATTERN APPEARS TO BE ON TAP FOR TODAY AS A WEAK
DISTURBANCE MOVES NORTHWESTWARD INTO SOUTHERN ARIZONA AND SOUTHEAST
CA...INCREASING THE THREAT FOR THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE REGION.
MONSOON MOISTURE WILL LIKELY REMAIN ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THE
EARLY PART OF THIS WEEK...WITH A CHANCE FOR AFTERNOON AND EVENING
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EACH DAY. SOME REDUCTION IN MONSOON
ACTIVITY IS POSSIBLE BY THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK AS WESTERLY FLOW
ALOFT BRINGS SOMEWHAT DRIER AIR INTO THE REGION.

&&

.DISCUSSION.../ISSUED 220 PM MDT/PDT 27 JULY/...
THE AFTERMATH OF THE PREVIOUS NIGHTS MCS KEPT CLOUD COVER ACROSS A
LARGE PORTION OF CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN ARIZONA THROUGH MID DAY.
LOWERED FORECAST MAX TEMPS FOR THE DAY...AND EXPECTING HEATING TO
TAKE OFF HERE IN THE AFTERNOON HOURS. CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY TONIGHT
LOOKS TO BE LATER RATHER THAN SOONER DUE TO THE DELAYED HEATING.
GOOD AMOUNT OF INSTABILITY IS IN PLACE OR BUILDING
UP...1000-1500J/KG OF MIXED LAYER CAPE. GENEROUS STEERING FLOW SPEED
OF 20-25 KTS /500-700MB/ AS WELL AS EAST-SOUTHEAST DIRECTIONAL FLOW
AS DEPICTED ON MDCRS AND FORECAST MODEL SOUNDINGS...ALONG WITH
PLENTY OF DEEP MOISTURE /PWAT GREATER THAN 1.6 INCH/ ARE VERY
FAVORABLE INGREDIENTS. NUMEROUS LOCAL HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS SUGGEST
CONVECTION WILL AGAIN START ALONG THE ARIZONA/NEW MEXICO BORDER AND
ACROSS FAR SOUTHEAST ARIZONA AND PROPAGATE
WEST/NORTHWESTWARD...WHICH SEEMS TO BE VERIFYING WELL AS OF 2100Z
WITH A CLUSTER OF STORMS JUST ENTERING APACHE AND GREENLEE COUNTIES
IN FAR EASTERN ARIZONA.

A DEFINITIVE MCV COULD BE SEEN ON SATELLITE THIS MORNING FROM
1600-1800Z PASSING THROUGH WESTERN ARIZONA UP THROUGH EASTERN
RIVERSIDE AND SAN BERNARDINO COUNTIES IN CALIFORNIA. NOW AS IT MOVES
INTO SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA AND SOUTHERN NEVADA...AN INVERTED TROUGH
WAVE FEATURE CONTINUES MOVING INTO SOUTHERN ARIZONA FROM NORTHERN
MEXICO. THIS WILL BE OUR DRIVING FORCE FOR CONVECTION
TONIGHT...CREATING OUR LIFT. EXPECTING STRONG WINDS...HEAVY RAIN
FROM STORMS THAT PERSIST OVER AREAS FOR A PERIOD OF TIME...BLOWING
DUST IS POSSIBLE WITH STRONG WINDS...AND LOTS OF LIGHTNING. AS WITH
EVENTS FROM LAST NIGHT...WINDS MAY BECOME VERY STRONG AS
THUNDERSTORMS FALL APART...SO A DOWNBURST IS VERY POSSIBLE AGAIN.

&&

.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION.../ISSUED AT 245 AM MST/PDT 27 JULY/...

DECENT MOISTURE WILL REMAIN IN THE AREA THROUGH MONDAY WITH
CONTINUED STORM CHANCES...BUT MODELS INDICATE A DRYING WESTERLY FLOW
WILL SET UP STARTING TUESDAY. TUESDAY MAY BE A BIT OF A TRANSITION
DAY WITH STORMS MAINLY FOCUSED ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN AREAS...BUT
CAN/T RULE OUT A FEW STORMS ACROSS THE LOWER DESERTS. LATEST
MODEL RUNS HAVE DEFINITELY BEEN TRENDING TOWARD A SOMEWHAT DRIER MID
WEEK PERIOD WITH 1000-700MB MIXING RATIOS DROPPING INTO THE 6-8
G/KG RANGE AND PWATS DROPPING TO BETWEEN 1.0 AND 1.5 INCHES. AT THIS
MOMENT...IT LOOKS LIKE ANY MONSOON ACTIVITY FOR WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY WILL LIKELY BE CONFINED TO FAR EASTERN ARIZONA. MODELS THEN
POINT TOWARD A BIT OF MOISTURE RESURGENCE FOR FRIDAY INTO NEXT
SATURDAY.

TEMPERATURES FOR THE PERIOD SHOULD FALL WITHIN A SMALL TEMPERATURE
RANGE OF RIGHT AROUND SEASONAL NORMALS. SOME AREAS MAY APPROACH THE
110 DEGREE MARK FOR HIGHS ON WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY AS DRIER AIR
ALLOWS FOR A BUMP IN TEMPERATURES.

&&

.AVIATION...
SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA INCLUDING KPHX...KIWA...AND KSDL...
CONDITIONS ARE BECOMING INCREASINGLY FAVORABLE FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE PHOENIX METRO AREA THIS EVENING.
DISTANT STORMS WILL LIKELY PROPAGATE OUT OF THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF
EASTERN AND SOUTHEASTERN AZ AND TOWARDS KPHX-KIWA-KSDL. TIMING
APPEARS TO BE ON THE LATER SIDE...PERHAPS AFTER 03Z. IMPACTS INCLUDE
STRONG GUSTY WINDS...BLOWING DUST...LIGHTNING AND HEAVY RAIN.

SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA AND SOUTHWEST ARIZONA INCLUDING KIPL AND KBLH...
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES REMAIN RELATIVELY LOW ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN CA.
FOCUS FOR CONVECTION WILL GENERALLY REMAIN EAST OF THE AREA ACROSS
AZ. HOWEVER...THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE THAT AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY
CONTAINING BLOWING DUST COULD REACH KIPL-KBLH AS LATE AS 12Z MONDAY.

AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDED TAFS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...
NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND HIGHER RELATIVE HUMIDITY LEVELS ARE
EXPECTED. MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY LEVELS WILL RANGE FROM 15 TO 25
PERCENT AND RECOVER OVERNIGHT TO 35 TO 45 PERCENT. THERE WILL BE A
DAILY THREAT OF AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS...BUT THESE WILL
BE MAINLY CONFINED TO THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA.
WINDS WILL BE GENERALLY LESS THAN 15 MPH...EXCEPT IN THE VICINITY OF
THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

AZ...NONE.

CA...NONE.

&&

$$

VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/PHOENIX

DISCUSSION...DEWEY
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...PERCHA/KUHLMAN
AVIATION...HIRSCH
FIRE WEATHER...HIRSCH/MCLANE






000
FXUS65 KPSR 272148 AAA
AFDPSR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PHOENIX AZ
250 PM MST SUN JUL 27 2014

.UPDATED...UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION...

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
AN ACTIVE MONSOON PATTERN APPEARS TO BE ON TAP FOR TODAY AS A WEAK
DISTURBANCE MOVES NORTHWESTWARD INTO SOUTHERN ARIZONA AND SOUTHEAST
CA...INCREASING THE THREAT FOR THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE REGION.
MONSOON MOISTURE WILL LIKELY REMAIN ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THE
EARLY PART OF THIS WEEK...WITH A CHANCE FOR AFTERNOON AND EVENING
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EACH DAY. SOME REDUCTION IN MONSOON
ACTIVITY IS POSSIBLE BY THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK AS WESTERLY FLOW
ALOFT BRINGS SOMEWHAT DRIER AIR INTO THE REGION.

&&

.DISCUSSION.../ISSUED 220 PM MDT/PDT 27 JULY/...
THE AFTERMATH OF THE PREVIOUS NIGHTS MCS KEPT CLOUD COVER ACROSS A
LARGE PORTION OF CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN ARIZONA THROUGH MID DAY.
LOWERED FORECAST MAX TEMPS FOR THE DAY...AND EXPECTING HEATING TO
TAKE OFF HERE IN THE AFTERNOON HOURS. CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY TONIGHT
LOOKS TO BE LATER RATHER THAN SOONER DUE TO THE DELAYED HEATING.
GOOD AMOUNT OF INSTABILITY IS IN PLACE OR BUILDING
UP...1000-1500J/KG OF MIXED LAYER CAPE. GENEROUS STEERING FLOW SPEED
OF 20-25 KTS /500-700MB/ AS WELL AS EAST-SOUTHEAST DIRECTIONAL FLOW
AS DEPICTED ON MDCRS AND FORECAST MODEL SOUNDINGS...ALONG WITH
PLENTY OF DEEP MOISTURE /PWAT GREATER THAN 1.6 INCH/ ARE VERY
FAVORABLE INGREDIENTS. NUMEROUS LOCAL HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS SUGGEST
CONVECTION WILL AGAIN START ALONG THE ARIZONA/NEW MEXICO BORDER AND
ACROSS FAR SOUTHEAST ARIZONA AND PROPAGATE
WEST/NORTHWESTWARD...WHICH SEEMS TO BE VERIFYING WELL AS OF 2100Z
WITH A CLUSTER OF STORMS JUST ENTERING APACHE AND GREENLEE COUNTIES
IN FAR EASTERN ARIZONA.

A DEFINITIVE MCV COULD BE SEEN ON SATELLITE THIS MORNING FROM
1600-1800Z PASSING THROUGH WESTERN ARIZONA UP THROUGH EASTERN
RIVERSIDE AND SAN BERNARDINO COUNTIES IN CALIFORNIA. NOW AS IT MOVES
INTO SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA AND SOUTHERN NEVADA...AN INVERTED TROUGH
WAVE FEATURE CONTINUES MOVING INTO SOUTHERN ARIZONA FROM NORTHERN
MEXICO. THIS WILL BE OUR DRIVING FORCE FOR CONVECTION
TONIGHT...CREATING OUR LIFT. EXPECTING STRONG WINDS...HEAVY RAIN
FROM STORMS THAT PERSIST OVER AREAS FOR A PERIOD OF TIME...BLOWING
DUST IS POSSIBLE WITH STRONG WINDS...AND LOTS OF LIGHTNING. AS WITH
EVENTS FROM LAST NIGHT...WINDS MAY BECOME VERY STRONG AS
THUNDERSTORMS FALL APART...SO A DOWNBURST IS VERY POSSIBLE AGAIN.

&&

.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION.../ISSUED AT 245 AM MST/PDT 27 JULY/...

DECENT MOISTURE WILL REMAIN IN THE AREA THROUGH MONDAY WITH
CONTINUED STORM CHANCES...BUT MODELS INDICATE A DRYING WESTERLY FLOW
WILL SET UP STARTING TUESDAY. TUESDAY MAY BE A BIT OF A TRANSITION
DAY WITH STORMS MAINLY FOCUSED ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN AREAS...BUT
CAN/T RULE OUT A FEW STORMS ACROSS THE LOWER DESERTS. LATEST
MODEL RUNS HAVE DEFINITELY BEEN TRENDING TOWARD A SOMEWHAT DRIER MID
WEEK PERIOD WITH 1000-700MB MIXING RATIOS DROPPING INTO THE 6-8
G/KG RANGE AND PWATS DROPPING TO BETWEEN 1.0 AND 1.5 INCHES. AT THIS
MOMENT...IT LOOKS LIKE ANY MONSOON ACTIVITY FOR WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY WILL LIKELY BE CONFINED TO FAR EASTERN ARIZONA. MODELS THEN
POINT TOWARD A BIT OF MOISTURE RESURGENCE FOR FRIDAY INTO NEXT
SATURDAY.

TEMPERATURES FOR THE PERIOD SHOULD FALL WITHIN A SMALL TEMPERATURE
RANGE OF RIGHT AROUND SEASONAL NORMALS. SOME AREAS MAY APPROACH THE
110 DEGREE MARK FOR HIGHS ON WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY AS DRIER AIR
ALLOWS FOR A BUMP IN TEMPERATURES.

&&

.AVIATION...
SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA INCLUDING KPHX...KIWA...AND KSDL...
CONDITIONS ARE BECOMING INCREASINGLY FAVORABLE FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE PHOENIX METRO AREA THIS EVENING.
DISTANT STORMS WILL LIKELY PROPAGATE OUT OF THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF
EASTERN AND SOUTHEASTERN AZ AND TOWARDS KPHX-KIWA-KSDL. TIMING
APPEARS TO BE ON THE LATER SIDE...PERHAPS AFTER 03Z. IMPACTS INCLUDE
STRONG GUSTY WINDS...BLOWING DUST...LIGHTNING AND HEAVY RAIN.

SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA AND SOUTHWEST ARIZONA INCLUDING KIPL AND KBLH...
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES REMAIN RELATIVELY LOW ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN CA.
FOCUS FOR CONVECTION WILL GENERALLY REMAIN EAST OF THE AREA ACROSS
AZ. HOWEVER...THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE THAT AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY
CONTAINING BLOWING DUST COULD REACH KIPL-KBLH AS LATE AS 12Z MONDAY.

AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDED TAFS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...
NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND HIGHER RELATIVE HUMIDITY LEVELS ARE
EXPECTED. MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY LEVELS WILL RANGE FROM 15 TO 25
PERCENT AND RECOVER OVERNIGHT TO 35 TO 45 PERCENT. THERE WILL BE A
DAILY THREAT OF AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS...BUT THESE WILL
BE MAINLY CONFINED TO THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA.
WINDS WILL BE GENERALLY LESS THAN 15 MPH...EXCEPT IN THE VICINITY OF
THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

AZ...NONE.

CA...NONE.

&&

$$

VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/PHOENIX

DISCUSSION...DEWEY
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...PERCHA/KUHLMAN
AVIATION...HIRSCH
FIRE WEATHER...HIRSCH/MCLANE






000
FXUS65 KPSR 272148 AAA
AFDPSR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PHOENIX AZ
250 PM MST SUN JUL 27 2014

.UPDATED...UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION...

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
AN ACTIVE MONSOON PATTERN APPEARS TO BE ON TAP FOR TODAY AS A WEAK
DISTURBANCE MOVES NORTHWESTWARD INTO SOUTHERN ARIZONA AND SOUTHEAST
CA...INCREASING THE THREAT FOR THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE REGION.
MONSOON MOISTURE WILL LIKELY REMAIN ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THE
EARLY PART OF THIS WEEK...WITH A CHANCE FOR AFTERNOON AND EVENING
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EACH DAY. SOME REDUCTION IN MONSOON
ACTIVITY IS POSSIBLE BY THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK AS WESTERLY FLOW
ALOFT BRINGS SOMEWHAT DRIER AIR INTO THE REGION.

&&

.DISCUSSION.../ISSUED 220 PM MDT/PDT 27 JULY/...
THE AFTERMATH OF THE PREVIOUS NIGHTS MCS KEPT CLOUD COVER ACROSS A
LARGE PORTION OF CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN ARIZONA THROUGH MID DAY.
LOWERED FORECAST MAX TEMPS FOR THE DAY...AND EXPECTING HEATING TO
TAKE OFF HERE IN THE AFTERNOON HOURS. CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY TONIGHT
LOOKS TO BE LATER RATHER THAN SOONER DUE TO THE DELAYED HEATING.
GOOD AMOUNT OF INSTABILITY IS IN PLACE OR BUILDING
UP...1000-1500J/KG OF MIXED LAYER CAPE. GENEROUS STEERING FLOW SPEED
OF 20-25 KTS /500-700MB/ AS WELL AS EAST-SOUTHEAST DIRECTIONAL FLOW
AS DEPICTED ON MDCRS AND FORECAST MODEL SOUNDINGS...ALONG WITH
PLENTY OF DEEP MOISTURE /PWAT GREATER THAN 1.6 INCH/ ARE VERY
FAVORABLE INGREDIENTS. NUMEROUS LOCAL HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS SUGGEST
CONVECTION WILL AGAIN START ALONG THE ARIZONA/NEW MEXICO BORDER AND
ACROSS FAR SOUTHEAST ARIZONA AND PROPAGATE
WEST/NORTHWESTWARD...WHICH SEEMS TO BE VERIFYING WELL AS OF 2100Z
WITH A CLUSTER OF STORMS JUST ENTERING APACHE AND GREENLEE COUNTIES
IN FAR EASTERN ARIZONA.

A DEFINITIVE MCV COULD BE SEEN ON SATELLITE THIS MORNING FROM
1600-1800Z PASSING THROUGH WESTERN ARIZONA UP THROUGH EASTERN
RIVERSIDE AND SAN BERNARDINO COUNTIES IN CALIFORNIA. NOW AS IT MOVES
INTO SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA AND SOUTHERN NEVADA...AN INVERTED TROUGH
WAVE FEATURE CONTINUES MOVING INTO SOUTHERN ARIZONA FROM NORTHERN
MEXICO. THIS WILL BE OUR DRIVING FORCE FOR CONVECTION
TONIGHT...CREATING OUR LIFT. EXPECTING STRONG WINDS...HEAVY RAIN
FROM STORMS THAT PERSIST OVER AREAS FOR A PERIOD OF TIME...BLOWING
DUST IS POSSIBLE WITH STRONG WINDS...AND LOTS OF LIGHTNING. AS WITH
EVENTS FROM LAST NIGHT...WINDS MAY BECOME VERY STRONG AS
THUNDERSTORMS FALL APART...SO A DOWNBURST IS VERY POSSIBLE AGAIN.

&&

.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION.../ISSUED AT 245 AM MST/PDT 27 JULY/...

DECENT MOISTURE WILL REMAIN IN THE AREA THROUGH MONDAY WITH
CONTINUED STORM CHANCES...BUT MODELS INDICATE A DRYING WESTERLY FLOW
WILL SET UP STARTING TUESDAY. TUESDAY MAY BE A BIT OF A TRANSITION
DAY WITH STORMS MAINLY FOCUSED ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN AREAS...BUT
CAN/T RULE OUT A FEW STORMS ACROSS THE LOWER DESERTS. LATEST
MODEL RUNS HAVE DEFINITELY BEEN TRENDING TOWARD A SOMEWHAT DRIER MID
WEEK PERIOD WITH 1000-700MB MIXING RATIOS DROPPING INTO THE 6-8
G/KG RANGE AND PWATS DROPPING TO BETWEEN 1.0 AND 1.5 INCHES. AT THIS
MOMENT...IT LOOKS LIKE ANY MONSOON ACTIVITY FOR WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY WILL LIKELY BE CONFINED TO FAR EASTERN ARIZONA. MODELS THEN
POINT TOWARD A BIT OF MOISTURE RESURGENCE FOR FRIDAY INTO NEXT
SATURDAY.

TEMPERATURES FOR THE PERIOD SHOULD FALL WITHIN A SMALL TEMPERATURE
RANGE OF RIGHT AROUND SEASONAL NORMALS. SOME AREAS MAY APPROACH THE
110 DEGREE MARK FOR HIGHS ON WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY AS DRIER AIR
ALLOWS FOR A BUMP IN TEMPERATURES.

&&

.AVIATION...
SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA INCLUDING KPHX...KIWA...AND KSDL...
CONDITIONS ARE BECOMING INCREASINGLY FAVORABLE FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE PHOENIX METRO AREA THIS EVENING.
DISTANT STORMS WILL LIKELY PROPAGATE OUT OF THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF
EASTERN AND SOUTHEASTERN AZ AND TOWARDS KPHX-KIWA-KSDL. TIMING
APPEARS TO BE ON THE LATER SIDE...PERHAPS AFTER 03Z. IMPACTS INCLUDE
STRONG GUSTY WINDS...BLOWING DUST...LIGHTNING AND HEAVY RAIN.

SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA AND SOUTHWEST ARIZONA INCLUDING KIPL AND KBLH...
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES REMAIN RELATIVELY LOW ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN CA.
FOCUS FOR CONVECTION WILL GENERALLY REMAIN EAST OF THE AREA ACROSS
AZ. HOWEVER...THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE THAT AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY
CONTAINING BLOWING DUST COULD REACH KIPL-KBLH AS LATE AS 12Z MONDAY.

AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDED TAFS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...
NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND HIGHER RELATIVE HUMIDITY LEVELS ARE
EXPECTED. MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY LEVELS WILL RANGE FROM 15 TO 25
PERCENT AND RECOVER OVERNIGHT TO 35 TO 45 PERCENT. THERE WILL BE A
DAILY THREAT OF AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS...BUT THESE WILL
BE MAINLY CONFINED TO THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA.
WINDS WILL BE GENERALLY LESS THAN 15 MPH...EXCEPT IN THE VICINITY OF
THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

AZ...NONE.

CA...NONE.

&&

$$

VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/PHOENIX

DISCUSSION...DEWEY
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...PERCHA/KUHLMAN
AVIATION...HIRSCH
FIRE WEATHER...HIRSCH/MCLANE






000
FXUS65 KFGZ 272135
AFDFGZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ
230 PM MST SUN JUL 27 2014

.SYNOPSIS...AN ACTIVE MONSOON PATTERN WITH DEEP MOISTURE AND UPPER
LEVEL DISTURBANCES WILL PRODUCE SLOW MOVING SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS EACH AFTERNOON AND EVENING THROUGH MONDAY. FROM
TUESDAY ONWARD THE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE MOVES SOUTH TO A LESS
FAVORABLE POSITION...POSSIBLY RESULTING IN A DOWNWARD TREND FOR
STORMS.

&&

.DISCUSSION...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WERE INCREASING ACROSS NRN AZ
EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. AN UPPER-LEVEL DISTURBANCE IS APPROACHING FROM
THE SOUTHEAST AND THIS WILL LIKELY RESULT IN LOCAL ENHANCEMENT OF
DEEP LAYER SHEAR AND INSTABILITY...AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS MAY REACH
MARGINALLY SEVERE LEVELS WITH STRONG WINDS AND HAIL. OTHERWISE...MOST
THUNDERSTORMS WILL PRODUCE HEAVY RAIN WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR
LOCALIZED FLOODING.

MOIST AND UNSTABLE SOUTHERLY FLOW CONTINUES MONDAY WITH ANOTHER UPPER
LEVEL DISTURBANCE FORECAST TO ROTATE NORTH INTO NRN AZ LATE MONDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING AGAIN ENHANCING AFTERNOON/EVENING CONVECTION. THE
HIGH PRESSURE CENTER MOVES OVER AZ TUESDAY THROUGH NEXT WEEK
POTENTIALLY RESULTING IN A DOWNWARD TREND IN STORM ACTIVITY. TEMPS
WILL GENERALLY REMAIN NEAR AVERAGE READINGS THROUGH THE FORECAST
PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 00Z PACKAGE...AREAS OF SMOKE FROM WILDFIRES MAY
PRODUCE OVERNIGHT MVFR VSBY IN THE VICINITY OF KGCN/KFLG/KSEZ. SCT
SHRA/TSRA WITH ISOLD +TSRA WILL CONTINUE THRU EARLY EVENING. MVFR
VSBY AND WIND GUSTS UP TO 35KTS PSBL IN THE STRONGER STORMS. AVIATION
DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDMENTS.

&&

.FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC.........DB/JJ
AVIATION.......DB

FOR NORTHERN ARIZONA WEATHER INFORMATION VISIT WEATHER.GOV/FLAGSTAFF





000
FXUS65 KFGZ 272135
AFDFGZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ
230 PM MST SUN JUL 27 2014

.SYNOPSIS...AN ACTIVE MONSOON PATTERN WITH DEEP MOISTURE AND UPPER
LEVEL DISTURBANCES WILL PRODUCE SLOW MOVING SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS EACH AFTERNOON AND EVENING THROUGH MONDAY. FROM
TUESDAY ONWARD THE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE MOVES SOUTH TO A LESS
FAVORABLE POSITION...POSSIBLY RESULTING IN A DOWNWARD TREND FOR
STORMS.

&&

.DISCUSSION...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WERE INCREASING ACROSS NRN AZ
EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. AN UPPER-LEVEL DISTURBANCE IS APPROACHING FROM
THE SOUTHEAST AND THIS WILL LIKELY RESULT IN LOCAL ENHANCEMENT OF
DEEP LAYER SHEAR AND INSTABILITY...AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS MAY REACH
MARGINALLY SEVERE LEVELS WITH STRONG WINDS AND HAIL. OTHERWISE...MOST
THUNDERSTORMS WILL PRODUCE HEAVY RAIN WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR
LOCALIZED FLOODING.

MOIST AND UNSTABLE SOUTHERLY FLOW CONTINUES MONDAY WITH ANOTHER UPPER
LEVEL DISTURBANCE FORECAST TO ROTATE NORTH INTO NRN AZ LATE MONDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING AGAIN ENHANCING AFTERNOON/EVENING CONVECTION. THE
HIGH PRESSURE CENTER MOVES OVER AZ TUESDAY THROUGH NEXT WEEK
POTENTIALLY RESULTING IN A DOWNWARD TREND IN STORM ACTIVITY. TEMPS
WILL GENERALLY REMAIN NEAR AVERAGE READINGS THROUGH THE FORECAST
PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 00Z PACKAGE...AREAS OF SMOKE FROM WILDFIRES MAY
PRODUCE OVERNIGHT MVFR VSBY IN THE VICINITY OF KGCN/KFLG/KSEZ. SCT
SHRA/TSRA WITH ISOLD +TSRA WILL CONTINUE THRU EARLY EVENING. MVFR
VSBY AND WIND GUSTS UP TO 35KTS PSBL IN THE STRONGER STORMS. AVIATION
DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDMENTS.

&&

.FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC.........DB/JJ
AVIATION.......DB

FOR NORTHERN ARIZONA WEATHER INFORMATION VISIT WEATHER.GOV/FLAGSTAFF





000
FXUS65 KFGZ 272135
AFDFGZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ
230 PM MST SUN JUL 27 2014

.SYNOPSIS...AN ACTIVE MONSOON PATTERN WITH DEEP MOISTURE AND UPPER
LEVEL DISTURBANCES WILL PRODUCE SLOW MOVING SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS EACH AFTERNOON AND EVENING THROUGH MONDAY. FROM
TUESDAY ONWARD THE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE MOVES SOUTH TO A LESS
FAVORABLE POSITION...POSSIBLY RESULTING IN A DOWNWARD TREND FOR
STORMS.

&&

.DISCUSSION...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WERE INCREASING ACROSS NRN AZ
EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. AN UPPER-LEVEL DISTURBANCE IS APPROACHING FROM
THE SOUTHEAST AND THIS WILL LIKELY RESULT IN LOCAL ENHANCEMENT OF
DEEP LAYER SHEAR AND INSTABILITY...AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS MAY REACH
MARGINALLY SEVERE LEVELS WITH STRONG WINDS AND HAIL. OTHERWISE...MOST
THUNDERSTORMS WILL PRODUCE HEAVY RAIN WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR
LOCALIZED FLOODING.

MOIST AND UNSTABLE SOUTHERLY FLOW CONTINUES MONDAY WITH ANOTHER UPPER
LEVEL DISTURBANCE FORECAST TO ROTATE NORTH INTO NRN AZ LATE MONDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING AGAIN ENHANCING AFTERNOON/EVENING CONVECTION. THE
HIGH PRESSURE CENTER MOVES OVER AZ TUESDAY THROUGH NEXT WEEK
POTENTIALLY RESULTING IN A DOWNWARD TREND IN STORM ACTIVITY. TEMPS
WILL GENERALLY REMAIN NEAR AVERAGE READINGS THROUGH THE FORECAST
PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 00Z PACKAGE...AREAS OF SMOKE FROM WILDFIRES MAY
PRODUCE OVERNIGHT MVFR VSBY IN THE VICINITY OF KGCN/KFLG/KSEZ. SCT
SHRA/TSRA WITH ISOLD +TSRA WILL CONTINUE THRU EARLY EVENING. MVFR
VSBY AND WIND GUSTS UP TO 35KTS PSBL IN THE STRONGER STORMS. AVIATION
DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDMENTS.

&&

.FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC.........DB/JJ
AVIATION.......DB

FOR NORTHERN ARIZONA WEATHER INFORMATION VISIT WEATHER.GOV/FLAGSTAFF





000
FXUS65 KFGZ 272135
AFDFGZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ
230 PM MST SUN JUL 27 2014

.SYNOPSIS...AN ACTIVE MONSOON PATTERN WITH DEEP MOISTURE AND UPPER
LEVEL DISTURBANCES WILL PRODUCE SLOW MOVING SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS EACH AFTERNOON AND EVENING THROUGH MONDAY. FROM
TUESDAY ONWARD THE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE MOVES SOUTH TO A LESS
FAVORABLE POSITION...POSSIBLY RESULTING IN A DOWNWARD TREND FOR
STORMS.

&&

.DISCUSSION...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WERE INCREASING ACROSS NRN AZ
EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. AN UPPER-LEVEL DISTURBANCE IS APPROACHING FROM
THE SOUTHEAST AND THIS WILL LIKELY RESULT IN LOCAL ENHANCEMENT OF
DEEP LAYER SHEAR AND INSTABILITY...AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS MAY REACH
MARGINALLY SEVERE LEVELS WITH STRONG WINDS AND HAIL. OTHERWISE...MOST
THUNDERSTORMS WILL PRODUCE HEAVY RAIN WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR
LOCALIZED FLOODING.

MOIST AND UNSTABLE SOUTHERLY FLOW CONTINUES MONDAY WITH ANOTHER UPPER
LEVEL DISTURBANCE FORECAST TO ROTATE NORTH INTO NRN AZ LATE MONDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING AGAIN ENHANCING AFTERNOON/EVENING CONVECTION. THE
HIGH PRESSURE CENTER MOVES OVER AZ TUESDAY THROUGH NEXT WEEK
POTENTIALLY RESULTING IN A DOWNWARD TREND IN STORM ACTIVITY. TEMPS
WILL GENERALLY REMAIN NEAR AVERAGE READINGS THROUGH THE FORECAST
PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 00Z PACKAGE...AREAS OF SMOKE FROM WILDFIRES MAY
PRODUCE OVERNIGHT MVFR VSBY IN THE VICINITY OF KGCN/KFLG/KSEZ. SCT
SHRA/TSRA WITH ISOLD +TSRA WILL CONTINUE THRU EARLY EVENING. MVFR
VSBY AND WIND GUSTS UP TO 35KTS PSBL IN THE STRONGER STORMS. AVIATION
DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDMENTS.

&&

.FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC.........DB/JJ
AVIATION.......DB

FOR NORTHERN ARIZONA WEATHER INFORMATION VISIT WEATHER.GOV/FLAGSTAFF





000
FXUS65 KTWC 272122
AFDTWC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ
225 PM MST SUN JUL 27 2014

.SYNOPSIS...EXPECT A GOOD CHANCE OF MAINLY AFTERNOON AND EVENING
THUNDERSTORMS TO START THE WEEK. SOME STORMS WILL GENERATE LOCALLY
HEAVY RAIN AND STRONG GUSTY WINDS. FEWER STORMS ARE EXPECTED AROUND
MID WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVERHEAD ACCOMPANIED BY SEVERAL
DEGREES OF HEATING BY TUESDAY OR WEDNESDAY. A STRONGER CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS RETURNS ONCE AGAIN TO END THE WEEK AND TAKE US INTO
NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.DISCUSSION...A DOWN TREND IMMEDIATELY BEHIND LAST NIGHT`S ACTIVITY
THROUGH WESTERN AND CENTRAL AREAS (SAY...FROM TUCSON WESTWARD)
DURING THE MORNING HOURS WITH EARLY CLEARING IN MOST EASTERN AREAS.
IN ADDITION AND MOST IMPORTANTLY...WE STILL HAVE THE STRONG IMPULSE
COMING IN ON OUR BRISK EASTERLY FLOW FROM CHIHUAHUA LATE TODAY AND
TONIGHT TO TAKE ADVANTAGE OF DEEP MOISTURE IN PLACE (PRECIPITABLE
WATER VALUES BACK UP AROUND 1.4 TO 1.6 INCHES). DECENT SHEER PROFILE
ABOVE 10K FEET AND SOLID STORM STRUCTURE ENVIRONMENT FOR ORGANIZED
OUTFLOWS. AS EXPECTED WE ARE SEEING SOME STRONG DEVELOPMENT IN
EASTERN AREAS AND STILL EXPECT THUNDERSTORMS INTO CENTRAL AND
WESTERN AREAS BETWEEN 00Z-06Z. SEVERE WIND THREAT AS WELL AS
POTENTIAL LOCAL FLASH FLOOD THREATS INTO THE EVENING HOURS.

STILL LOOKING AT A POSSIBLE DOWNTURN BY TUESDAY OR WEDNESDAY AND
LASTING INTO AT LEAST THURSDAY AS A SECONDARY HIGH CENTER
RECONSOLIDATES (BRIEFLY) NEARLY OVERHEAD. THIS WILL TEND TO PUSH
STORM ACTIVITY BACK TO BORDER AND MOUNTAIN AREAS WHILE WE HEAT UP
SEVERAL DEGREES (PERHAPS AGAIN CLIMBING TO A FEW DEGREES SHY OF
RECORD LEVELS).

THAT SECONDARY HIGH SHOULD WEAKEN LATE THURSDAY INTO EARLY FRIDAY
WITH THE RIDGE REORIENTING ONCE AGAIN INTO A MORE FAVORABLE POSITION
FOR STRONG THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE FOR SE AZ BY FRIDAY OR SATURDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...VALID THRU 29/00Z.
SCTD TSRA/SHRA E OF KTUS WILL PUSH W FOR THE REMAINDER OF THIS
AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING WITH LINGERING ISOLD -SHRA AFTER
MIDNIGHT OR 29/07Z. MVFR CONDITIONS WITH THE STRONGER TSRA ALONG
WITH WIND GUSTS TO NEAR 40-45 KTS. OTHERWISE CLOUD DECKS WILL
GENERALLY BE AT 7-12K FT AGL THRU THE PERIOD. TSRA/SHRA DVLPG AFTER
29/18Z ON MONDAY. AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR TAF AMENDMENTS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...SCATTERED MOSTLY AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS
FOR THE UPCOMING WEEK. EXPECT STRONG...GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS NEAR
THE STRONGER STORMS. OTHERWISE...NORMAL DIURNAL WIND TRENDS WILL
OCCUR WITH OCCASIONAL GUSTS DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS DUE TO
DAYTIME HEATING.

&&

.TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...YOUTUBE...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/TUCSON

MEYER/GLUECK






000
FXUS65 KTWC 272122
AFDTWC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ
225 PM MST SUN JUL 27 2014

.SYNOPSIS...EXPECT A GOOD CHANCE OF MAINLY AFTERNOON AND EVENING
THUNDERSTORMS TO START THE WEEK. SOME STORMS WILL GENERATE LOCALLY
HEAVY RAIN AND STRONG GUSTY WINDS. FEWER STORMS ARE EXPECTED AROUND
MID WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVERHEAD ACCOMPANIED BY SEVERAL
DEGREES OF HEATING BY TUESDAY OR WEDNESDAY. A STRONGER CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS RETURNS ONCE AGAIN TO END THE WEEK AND TAKE US INTO
NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.DISCUSSION...A DOWN TREND IMMEDIATELY BEHIND LAST NIGHT`S ACTIVITY
THROUGH WESTERN AND CENTRAL AREAS (SAY...FROM TUCSON WESTWARD)
DURING THE MORNING HOURS WITH EARLY CLEARING IN MOST EASTERN AREAS.
IN ADDITION AND MOST IMPORTANTLY...WE STILL HAVE THE STRONG IMPULSE
COMING IN ON OUR BRISK EASTERLY FLOW FROM CHIHUAHUA LATE TODAY AND
TONIGHT TO TAKE ADVANTAGE OF DEEP MOISTURE IN PLACE (PRECIPITABLE
WATER VALUES BACK UP AROUND 1.4 TO 1.6 INCHES). DECENT SHEER PROFILE
ABOVE 10K FEET AND SOLID STORM STRUCTURE ENVIRONMENT FOR ORGANIZED
OUTFLOWS. AS EXPECTED WE ARE SEEING SOME STRONG DEVELOPMENT IN
EASTERN AREAS AND STILL EXPECT THUNDERSTORMS INTO CENTRAL AND
WESTERN AREAS BETWEEN 00Z-06Z. SEVERE WIND THREAT AS WELL AS
POTENTIAL LOCAL FLASH FLOOD THREATS INTO THE EVENING HOURS.

STILL LOOKING AT A POSSIBLE DOWNTURN BY TUESDAY OR WEDNESDAY AND
LASTING INTO AT LEAST THURSDAY AS A SECONDARY HIGH CENTER
RECONSOLIDATES (BRIEFLY) NEARLY OVERHEAD. THIS WILL TEND TO PUSH
STORM ACTIVITY BACK TO BORDER AND MOUNTAIN AREAS WHILE WE HEAT UP
SEVERAL DEGREES (PERHAPS AGAIN CLIMBING TO A FEW DEGREES SHY OF
RECORD LEVELS).

THAT SECONDARY HIGH SHOULD WEAKEN LATE THURSDAY INTO EARLY FRIDAY
WITH THE RIDGE REORIENTING ONCE AGAIN INTO A MORE FAVORABLE POSITION
FOR STRONG THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE FOR SE AZ BY FRIDAY OR SATURDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...VALID THRU 29/00Z.
SCTD TSRA/SHRA E OF KTUS WILL PUSH W FOR THE REMAINDER OF THIS
AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING WITH LINGERING ISOLD -SHRA AFTER
MIDNIGHT OR 29/07Z. MVFR CONDITIONS WITH THE STRONGER TSRA ALONG
WITH WIND GUSTS TO NEAR 40-45 KTS. OTHERWISE CLOUD DECKS WILL
GENERALLY BE AT 7-12K FT AGL THRU THE PERIOD. TSRA/SHRA DVLPG AFTER
29/18Z ON MONDAY. AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR TAF AMENDMENTS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...SCATTERED MOSTLY AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS
FOR THE UPCOMING WEEK. EXPECT STRONG...GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS NEAR
THE STRONGER STORMS. OTHERWISE...NORMAL DIURNAL WIND TRENDS WILL
OCCUR WITH OCCASIONAL GUSTS DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS DUE TO
DAYTIME HEATING.

&&

.TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...YOUTUBE...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/TUCSON

MEYER/GLUECK






000
FXUS65 KTWC 272122
AFDTWC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ
225 PM MST SUN JUL 27 2014

.SYNOPSIS...EXPECT A GOOD CHANCE OF MAINLY AFTERNOON AND EVENING
THUNDERSTORMS TO START THE WEEK. SOME STORMS WILL GENERATE LOCALLY
HEAVY RAIN AND STRONG GUSTY WINDS. FEWER STORMS ARE EXPECTED AROUND
MID WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVERHEAD ACCOMPANIED BY SEVERAL
DEGREES OF HEATING BY TUESDAY OR WEDNESDAY. A STRONGER CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS RETURNS ONCE AGAIN TO END THE WEEK AND TAKE US INTO
NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.DISCUSSION...A DOWN TREND IMMEDIATELY BEHIND LAST NIGHT`S ACTIVITY
THROUGH WESTERN AND CENTRAL AREAS (SAY...FROM TUCSON WESTWARD)
DURING THE MORNING HOURS WITH EARLY CLEARING IN MOST EASTERN AREAS.
IN ADDITION AND MOST IMPORTANTLY...WE STILL HAVE THE STRONG IMPULSE
COMING IN ON OUR BRISK EASTERLY FLOW FROM CHIHUAHUA LATE TODAY AND
TONIGHT TO TAKE ADVANTAGE OF DEEP MOISTURE IN PLACE (PRECIPITABLE
WATER VALUES BACK UP AROUND 1.4 TO 1.6 INCHES). DECENT SHEER PROFILE
ABOVE 10K FEET AND SOLID STORM STRUCTURE ENVIRONMENT FOR ORGANIZED
OUTFLOWS. AS EXPECTED WE ARE SEEING SOME STRONG DEVELOPMENT IN
EASTERN AREAS AND STILL EXPECT THUNDERSTORMS INTO CENTRAL AND
WESTERN AREAS BETWEEN 00Z-06Z. SEVERE WIND THREAT AS WELL AS
POTENTIAL LOCAL FLASH FLOOD THREATS INTO THE EVENING HOURS.

STILL LOOKING AT A POSSIBLE DOWNTURN BY TUESDAY OR WEDNESDAY AND
LASTING INTO AT LEAST THURSDAY AS A SECONDARY HIGH CENTER
RECONSOLIDATES (BRIEFLY) NEARLY OVERHEAD. THIS WILL TEND TO PUSH
STORM ACTIVITY BACK TO BORDER AND MOUNTAIN AREAS WHILE WE HEAT UP
SEVERAL DEGREES (PERHAPS AGAIN CLIMBING TO A FEW DEGREES SHY OF
RECORD LEVELS).

THAT SECONDARY HIGH SHOULD WEAKEN LATE THURSDAY INTO EARLY FRIDAY
WITH THE RIDGE REORIENTING ONCE AGAIN INTO A MORE FAVORABLE POSITION
FOR STRONG THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE FOR SE AZ BY FRIDAY OR SATURDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...VALID THRU 29/00Z.
SCTD TSRA/SHRA E OF KTUS WILL PUSH W FOR THE REMAINDER OF THIS
AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING WITH LINGERING ISOLD -SHRA AFTER
MIDNIGHT OR 29/07Z. MVFR CONDITIONS WITH THE STRONGER TSRA ALONG
WITH WIND GUSTS TO NEAR 40-45 KTS. OTHERWISE CLOUD DECKS WILL
GENERALLY BE AT 7-12K FT AGL THRU THE PERIOD. TSRA/SHRA DVLPG AFTER
29/18Z ON MONDAY. AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR TAF AMENDMENTS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...SCATTERED MOSTLY AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS
FOR THE UPCOMING WEEK. EXPECT STRONG...GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS NEAR
THE STRONGER STORMS. OTHERWISE...NORMAL DIURNAL WIND TRENDS WILL
OCCUR WITH OCCASIONAL GUSTS DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS DUE TO
DAYTIME HEATING.

&&

.TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...YOUTUBE...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/TUCSON

MEYER/GLUECK






000
FXUS65 KTWC 272122
AFDTWC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ
225 PM MST SUN JUL 27 2014

.SYNOPSIS...EXPECT A GOOD CHANCE OF MAINLY AFTERNOON AND EVENING
THUNDERSTORMS TO START THE WEEK. SOME STORMS WILL GENERATE LOCALLY
HEAVY RAIN AND STRONG GUSTY WINDS. FEWER STORMS ARE EXPECTED AROUND
MID WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVERHEAD ACCOMPANIED BY SEVERAL
DEGREES OF HEATING BY TUESDAY OR WEDNESDAY. A STRONGER CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS RETURNS ONCE AGAIN TO END THE WEEK AND TAKE US INTO
NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.DISCUSSION...A DOWN TREND IMMEDIATELY BEHIND LAST NIGHT`S ACTIVITY
THROUGH WESTERN AND CENTRAL AREAS (SAY...FROM TUCSON WESTWARD)
DURING THE MORNING HOURS WITH EARLY CLEARING IN MOST EASTERN AREAS.
IN ADDITION AND MOST IMPORTANTLY...WE STILL HAVE THE STRONG IMPULSE
COMING IN ON OUR BRISK EASTERLY FLOW FROM CHIHUAHUA LATE TODAY AND
TONIGHT TO TAKE ADVANTAGE OF DEEP MOISTURE IN PLACE (PRECIPITABLE
WATER VALUES BACK UP AROUND 1.4 TO 1.6 INCHES). DECENT SHEER PROFILE
ABOVE 10K FEET AND SOLID STORM STRUCTURE ENVIRONMENT FOR ORGANIZED
OUTFLOWS. AS EXPECTED WE ARE SEEING SOME STRONG DEVELOPMENT IN
EASTERN AREAS AND STILL EXPECT THUNDERSTORMS INTO CENTRAL AND
WESTERN AREAS BETWEEN 00Z-06Z. SEVERE WIND THREAT AS WELL AS
POTENTIAL LOCAL FLASH FLOOD THREATS INTO THE EVENING HOURS.

STILL LOOKING AT A POSSIBLE DOWNTURN BY TUESDAY OR WEDNESDAY AND
LASTING INTO AT LEAST THURSDAY AS A SECONDARY HIGH CENTER
RECONSOLIDATES (BRIEFLY) NEARLY OVERHEAD. THIS WILL TEND TO PUSH
STORM ACTIVITY BACK TO BORDER AND MOUNTAIN AREAS WHILE WE HEAT UP
SEVERAL DEGREES (PERHAPS AGAIN CLIMBING TO A FEW DEGREES SHY OF
RECORD LEVELS).

THAT SECONDARY HIGH SHOULD WEAKEN LATE THURSDAY INTO EARLY FRIDAY
WITH THE RIDGE REORIENTING ONCE AGAIN INTO A MORE FAVORABLE POSITION
FOR STRONG THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE FOR SE AZ BY FRIDAY OR SATURDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...VALID THRU 29/00Z.
SCTD TSRA/SHRA E OF KTUS WILL PUSH W FOR THE REMAINDER OF THIS
AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING WITH LINGERING ISOLD -SHRA AFTER
MIDNIGHT OR 29/07Z. MVFR CONDITIONS WITH THE STRONGER TSRA ALONG
WITH WIND GUSTS TO NEAR 40-45 KTS. OTHERWISE CLOUD DECKS WILL
GENERALLY BE AT 7-12K FT AGL THRU THE PERIOD. TSRA/SHRA DVLPG AFTER
29/18Z ON MONDAY. AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR TAF AMENDMENTS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...SCATTERED MOSTLY AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS
FOR THE UPCOMING WEEK. EXPECT STRONG...GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS NEAR
THE STRONGER STORMS. OTHERWISE...NORMAL DIURNAL WIND TRENDS WILL
OCCUR WITH OCCASIONAL GUSTS DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS DUE TO
DAYTIME HEATING.

&&

.TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...YOUTUBE...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/TUCSON

MEYER/GLUECK






000
FXUS65 KPSR 272118
AFDPSR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PHOENIX AZ
220 PM MST SUN JUL 27 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
AN ACTIVE MONSOON PATTERN APPEARS TO BE ON TAP FOR TODAY AS A WEAK
DISTURBANCE MOVES NORTHWESTWARD INTO SOUTHERN ARIZONA AND SOUTHEAST
CA...INCREASING THE THREAT FOR THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE REGION.
MONSOON MOISTURE WILL LIKELY REMAIN ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THE
EARLY PART OF THIS WEEK...WITH A CHANCE FOR AFTERNOON AND EVENING
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EACH DAY. SOME REDUCTION IN MONSOON
ACTIVITY IS POSSIBLE BY THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK AS WESTERLY FLOW
ALOFT BRINGS SOMEWHAT DRIER AIR INTO THE REGION.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
THE AFTERMATH OF THE PREVIOUS NIGHTS MCS KEPT CLOUD COVER ACROSS A
LARGE PORTION OF CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN ARIZONA THROUGH MID DAY.
LOWERED FORECAST MAX TEMPS FOR THE DAY...AND EXPECTING HEATING TO
TAKE OFF HERE IN THE AFTERNOON HOURS. CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY TONIGHT
LOOKS TO BE LATER RATHER THAN SOONER DUE TO THE DELAYED HEATING.
GOOD AMOUNT OF INSTABILITY IS IN PLACE OR BUILDING
UP...1000-1500J/KG OF MIXED LAYER CAPE. GENEROUS STEERING FLOW SPEED
OF 20-25 KTS /500-700MB/ AS WELL AS EAST-SOUTHEAST DIRECTIONAL FLOW
AS DEPICTED ON MDCRS AND FORECAST MODEL SOUNDINGS...ALONG WITH
PLENTY OF DEEP MOISTURE /PWAT GREATER THAN 1.6 INCH/ ARE VERY
FAVORABLE INGREDIENTS. NUMEROUS LOCAL HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS SUGGEST
CONVECTION WILL AGAIN START ALONG THE ARIZONA/NEW MEXICO BORDER AND
ACROSS FAR SOUTHEAST ARIZONA AND PROPAGATE
WEST/NORTHWESTWARD...WHICH SEEMS TO BE VERIFYING WELL AS OF 2100Z
WITH A CLUSTER OF STORMS JUST ENTERING APACHE AND GREENLEE COUNTIES
IN FAR EASTERN ARIZONA.

A DEFINITIVE MCV COULD BE SEEN ON SATELLITE THIS MORNING FROM
1600-1800Z PASSING THROUGH WESTERN ARIZONA UP THROUGH EASTERN
RIVERSIDE AND SAN BERNARDINO COUNTIES IN CALIFORNIA. NOW AS IT MOVES
INTO SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA AND SOUTHERN NEVADA...AN INVERTED TROUGH
WAVE FEATURE CONTINUES MOVING INTO SOUTHERN ARIZONA FROM NORTHERN
MEXICO. THIS WILL BE OUR DRIVING FORCE FOR CONVECTION
TONIGHT...CREATING OUR LIFT. EXPECTING STRONG WINDS...HEAVY RAIN
FROM STORMS THAT PERSIST OVER AREAS FOR A PERIOD OF TIME...BLOWING
DUST IS POSSIBLE WITH STRONG WINDS...AND LOTS OF LIGHTNING. AS WITH
EVENTS FROM LAST NIGHT...WINDS MAY BECOME VERY STRONG AS
THUNDERSTORMS FALL APART...SO A DOWNBURST IS VERY POSSIBLE AGAIN.

&&

.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION.../ISSUED AT 245 AM MST/PDT 27 JULY/...

DECENT MOISTURE WILL REMAIN IN THE AREA THROUGH MONDAY WITH
CONTINUED STORM CHANCES...BUT MODELS INDICATE A DRYING WESTERLY FLOW
WILL SET UP STARTING TUESDAY. TUESDAY MAY BE A BIT OF A TRANSITION
DAY WITH STORMS MAINLY FOCUSED ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN AREAS...BUT
CAN/T RULE OUT A FEW STORMS ACROSS THE LOWER DESERTS. LATEST
MODEL RUNS HAVE DEFINITELY BEEN TRENDING TOWARD A SOMEWHAT DRIER MID
WEEK PERIOD WITH 1000-700MB MIXING RATIOS DROPPING INTO THE 6-8
G/KG RANGE AND PWATS DROPPING TO BETWEEN 1.0 AND 1.5 INCHES. AT THIS
MOMENT...IT LOOKS LIKE ANY MONSOON ACTIVITY FOR WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY WILL LIKELY BE CONFINED TO FAR EASTERN ARIZONA. MODELS THEN
POINT TOWARD A BIT OF MOISTURE RESURGENCE FOR FRIDAY INTO NEXT
SATURDAY.

TEMPERATURES FOR THE PERIOD SHOULD FALL WITHIN A SMALL TEMPERATURE
RANGE OF RIGHT AROUND SEASONAL NORMALS. SOME AREAS MAY APPROACH THE
110 DEGREE MARK FOR HIGHS ON WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY AS DRIER AIR
ALLOWS FOR A BUMP IN TEMPERATURES.

&&

.AVIATION...
SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA INCLUDING KPHX...KIWA...AND KSDL...
ONGOING CONVECTION SOUTHWEST OF THE METRO THIS MORNING HAS RESULTED
IN BLDU ACROSS ALL PHOENIX TERMINALS. EXPECT HAZY SKIES TO LINGER
THROUGH MID MORNING BEFORE IMPROVING SHORTLY BEFORE NOON. AFTER
THAT...LOOKS TO BE ANOTHER ACTIVE DAY WITH STORMS MAKING THEIR WAY
INTO THE METRO FROM THE SOUTHEAST. LOOKS LIKE THE BEST OPPORTUNITY
FOR STORMS WILL BE AFTER 00Z WITH THE USUAL IMPACTS /DUST AND STRONG
WINDS/ LIKELY.

SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA AND SOUTHWEST ARIZONA INCLUDING KIPL AND KBLH...
INCREASED CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AT BOTH SE CA
TERMINALS TODAY. WITH STORMS ALREADY DEVELOPING EAST OF
BLYTHE...THEY SHOULD BE THE FIRST TO SEE ACTIVITY /AS EARLY AS 16Z
POSSIBLY/. IPL WILL LIKELY HANG ON UNTIL LATER THIS AFTERNOON BUT
ALL HI-RES GUIDANCE INDICATES STORMS WILL DEVELOP AFTER 19Z.

AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDED TAFS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...
NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND HIGHER RELATIVE HUMIDITY LEVELS ARE
EXPECTED. MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY LEVELS WILL RANGE FROM 15 TO 25
PERCENT AND RECOVER OVERNIGHT TO 35 TO 45 PERCENT. THERE WILL BE A
DAILY THREAT OF AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS...BUT THESE WILL
BE MAINLY CONFINED TO THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA.
WINDS WILL BE GENERALLY LESS THAN 15 MPH...EXCEPT IN THE VICINITY OF
THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

AZ...NONE.

CA...NONE.

&&

$$

VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/PHOENIX

DISCUSSION...DEWEY
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...PERCHA/KUHLMAN
AVIATION...LEINS
FIRE WEATHER...HIRSCH/MCLANE







000
FXUS65 KPSR 272118
AFDPSR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PHOENIX AZ
220 PM MST SUN JUL 27 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
AN ACTIVE MONSOON PATTERN APPEARS TO BE ON TAP FOR TODAY AS A WEAK
DISTURBANCE MOVES NORTHWESTWARD INTO SOUTHERN ARIZONA AND SOUTHEAST
CA...INCREASING THE THREAT FOR THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE REGION.
MONSOON MOISTURE WILL LIKELY REMAIN ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THE
EARLY PART OF THIS WEEK...WITH A CHANCE FOR AFTERNOON AND EVENING
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EACH DAY. SOME REDUCTION IN MONSOON
ACTIVITY IS POSSIBLE BY THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK AS WESTERLY FLOW
ALOFT BRINGS SOMEWHAT DRIER AIR INTO THE REGION.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
THE AFTERMATH OF THE PREVIOUS NIGHTS MCS KEPT CLOUD COVER ACROSS A
LARGE PORTION OF CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN ARIZONA THROUGH MID DAY.
LOWERED FORECAST MAX TEMPS FOR THE DAY...AND EXPECTING HEATING TO
TAKE OFF HERE IN THE AFTERNOON HOURS. CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY TONIGHT
LOOKS TO BE LATER RATHER THAN SOONER DUE TO THE DELAYED HEATING.
GOOD AMOUNT OF INSTABILITY IS IN PLACE OR BUILDING
UP...1000-1500J/KG OF MIXED LAYER CAPE. GENEROUS STEERING FLOW SPEED
OF 20-25 KTS /500-700MB/ AS WELL AS EAST-SOUTHEAST DIRECTIONAL FLOW
AS DEPICTED ON MDCRS AND FORECAST MODEL SOUNDINGS...ALONG WITH
PLENTY OF DEEP MOISTURE /PWAT GREATER THAN 1.6 INCH/ ARE VERY
FAVORABLE INGREDIENTS. NUMEROUS LOCAL HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS SUGGEST
CONVECTION WILL AGAIN START ALONG THE ARIZONA/NEW MEXICO BORDER AND
ACROSS FAR SOUTHEAST ARIZONA AND PROPAGATE
WEST/NORTHWESTWARD...WHICH SEEMS TO BE VERIFYING WELL AS OF 2100Z
WITH A CLUSTER OF STORMS JUST ENTERING APACHE AND GREENLEE COUNTIES
IN FAR EASTERN ARIZONA.

A DEFINITIVE MCV COULD BE SEEN ON SATELLITE THIS MORNING FROM
1600-1800Z PASSING THROUGH WESTERN ARIZONA UP THROUGH EASTERN
RIVERSIDE AND SAN BERNARDINO COUNTIES IN CALIFORNIA. NOW AS IT MOVES
INTO SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA AND SOUTHERN NEVADA...AN INVERTED TROUGH
WAVE FEATURE CONTINUES MOVING INTO SOUTHERN ARIZONA FROM NORTHERN
MEXICO. THIS WILL BE OUR DRIVING FORCE FOR CONVECTION
TONIGHT...CREATING OUR LIFT. EXPECTING STRONG WINDS...HEAVY RAIN
FROM STORMS THAT PERSIST OVER AREAS FOR A PERIOD OF TIME...BLOWING
DUST IS POSSIBLE WITH STRONG WINDS...AND LOTS OF LIGHTNING. AS WITH
EVENTS FROM LAST NIGHT...WINDS MAY BECOME VERY STRONG AS
THUNDERSTORMS FALL APART...SO A DOWNBURST IS VERY POSSIBLE AGAIN.

&&

.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION.../ISSUED AT 245 AM MST/PDT 27 JULY/...

DECENT MOISTURE WILL REMAIN IN THE AREA THROUGH MONDAY WITH
CONTINUED STORM CHANCES...BUT MODELS INDICATE A DRYING WESTERLY FLOW
WILL SET UP STARTING TUESDAY. TUESDAY MAY BE A BIT OF A TRANSITION
DAY WITH STORMS MAINLY FOCUSED ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN AREAS...BUT
CAN/T RULE OUT A FEW STORMS ACROSS THE LOWER DESERTS. LATEST
MODEL RUNS HAVE DEFINITELY BEEN TRENDING TOWARD A SOMEWHAT DRIER MID
WEEK PERIOD WITH 1000-700MB MIXING RATIOS DROPPING INTO THE 6-8
G/KG RANGE AND PWATS DROPPING TO BETWEEN 1.0 AND 1.5 INCHES. AT THIS
MOMENT...IT LOOKS LIKE ANY MONSOON ACTIVITY FOR WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY WILL LIKELY BE CONFINED TO FAR EASTERN ARIZONA. MODELS THEN
POINT TOWARD A BIT OF MOISTURE RESURGENCE FOR FRIDAY INTO NEXT
SATURDAY.

TEMPERATURES FOR THE PERIOD SHOULD FALL WITHIN A SMALL TEMPERATURE
RANGE OF RIGHT AROUND SEASONAL NORMALS. SOME AREAS MAY APPROACH THE
110 DEGREE MARK FOR HIGHS ON WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY AS DRIER AIR
ALLOWS FOR A BUMP IN TEMPERATURES.

&&

.AVIATION...
SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA INCLUDING KPHX...KIWA...AND KSDL...
ONGOING CONVECTION SOUTHWEST OF THE METRO THIS MORNING HAS RESULTED
IN BLDU ACROSS ALL PHOENIX TERMINALS. EXPECT HAZY SKIES TO LINGER
THROUGH MID MORNING BEFORE IMPROVING SHORTLY BEFORE NOON. AFTER
THAT...LOOKS TO BE ANOTHER ACTIVE DAY WITH STORMS MAKING THEIR WAY
INTO THE METRO FROM THE SOUTHEAST. LOOKS LIKE THE BEST OPPORTUNITY
FOR STORMS WILL BE AFTER 00Z WITH THE USUAL IMPACTS /DUST AND STRONG
WINDS/ LIKELY.

SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA AND SOUTHWEST ARIZONA INCLUDING KIPL AND KBLH...
INCREASED CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AT BOTH SE CA
TERMINALS TODAY. WITH STORMS ALREADY DEVELOPING EAST OF
BLYTHE...THEY SHOULD BE THE FIRST TO SEE ACTIVITY /AS EARLY AS 16Z
POSSIBLY/. IPL WILL LIKELY HANG ON UNTIL LATER THIS AFTERNOON BUT
ALL HI-RES GUIDANCE INDICATES STORMS WILL DEVELOP AFTER 19Z.

AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDED TAFS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...
NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND HIGHER RELATIVE HUMIDITY LEVELS ARE
EXPECTED. MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY LEVELS WILL RANGE FROM 15 TO 25
PERCENT AND RECOVER OVERNIGHT TO 35 TO 45 PERCENT. THERE WILL BE A
DAILY THREAT OF AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS...BUT THESE WILL
BE MAINLY CONFINED TO THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA.
WINDS WILL BE GENERALLY LESS THAN 15 MPH...EXCEPT IN THE VICINITY OF
THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

AZ...NONE.

CA...NONE.

&&

$$

VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/PHOENIX

DISCUSSION...DEWEY
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...PERCHA/KUHLMAN
AVIATION...LEINS
FIRE WEATHER...HIRSCH/MCLANE








000
FXUS65 KPSR 271708
AFDPSR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PHOENIX AZ
1010 AM MST SUN JUL 27 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
AN ACTIVE MONSOON PATTERN APPEARS TO BE ON TAP FOR TODAY AS A WEAK
DISTURBANCE MOVES NORTHWESTWARD INTO SOUTHERN ARIZONA AND SOUTHEAST
CA...INCREASING THE THREAT FOR THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE REGION.
MONSOON MOISTURE WILL THEN LIKELY REMAIN ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH
THE EARLY PART OF THIS WEEK...WITH A CHANCE FOR AFTERNOON AND
EVENING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EACH DAY. SOME REDUCTION IN
MONSOON ACTIVITY IS POSSIBLE BY THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK AS WESTERLY
FLOW ALOFT BRINGS SOMEWHAT DRIER AIR INTO THE REGION.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
MORNING SATELLITE AND RADAR HAVE BEEN QUITE ACTIVE ACROSS THE
CENTRAL...SOUTHERN AND FAR SOUTHWEST PORTIONS OF ARIZONA AS WELL AS
SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA FROM LATE LAST NIGHT THROUGH THIS MORNING. AS
COULD BE SEEN ON RADAR...A ROTATING MCS PROGRESSED EASTWARD ACROSS
SOUTHERN ARIZONA INTO THE LOWER COLORADO RIVER VALLEY THIS MORNING
BRINGING RAIN AND THUNDERSTORMS TO SOUTHEASTERN CALIFORNIA. ALL OF
THE ACTIVITY LAST NIGHT HAS ALLOWED CLOUD COVER TO REMAIN A LARGE
FACTOR IN OUR TEMPERATURE FORECAST FOR TODAY...WHICH WILL LIKELY BE
SEVERAL DEGREES COOLER THAN WAS ORIGINALLY FORECAST. HAVE MADE SOME
LARGE CHANGES TO THE FORECAST MAX TEMPS AS WELL AS POP CHANCES THIS
MORNING. TAKING INTO CONSIDERATION THE LOCAL HIGH-RESOLUTION
MODELS...A BREAK IN ACTIVITY LOOKS PROMISING THIS AFTERNOON WITH
CLEARING CLOUDS AND A RETURN OF ACTIVITY AFTER 5PM FOR FAR SOUTHEAST
ARIZONA AND AREAS NORTHWARD THEREAFTER.

MOISTURE IS DEFINITELY IN PLACE...THE 12Z PSR AND TWC SOUNDING BOTH
HAVE JUST OVER 1.6 INCH OF PWAT. FAIRLY STRONG STEERING FLOW WINDS
FROM 500-700 MB /ABOUT 10K - 20K FT/ OF 25 - 30 KTS FROM THE
EAST-SOUTHEAST WILL HELP ANYTHING THAT FORMS OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN
TO MOVE WEST AND HOLD TOGETHER. ANOTHER INVERTED TROUGH FEATURE WILL
MOVE THROUGH NORTHERN MEXICO AND SOUTHERN ARIZONA THIS EVENING TO
IMPACT THE LOWER DESERT LOCATIONS SOMETIME BETWEEN 00Z-06Z.

&&

.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION.../ISSUED AT 245 AM MST/PDT 27 JULY/...
LATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY IS NOW SHOWING THE INVERTED TROF/MCS THAT
WAS OVER SONORA MEXICO LAST EVENING IS NOW MOVING INTO EXTREME
SOUTHERN AZ. RADAR RETURNS AT THIS TIME ARE SHOWING WIDESPREAD
SHOWER/TS ACTIVITY CURRENTLY MOVING ACROSS PIMA COUNTY...WITH SOME
WEAKER CELLS NOW MOVING INTO SOUTHWEST MARICOPA COUNTY. THE LATEST
HRRR HIGH-RES MODEL OUTPUT...WHICH HAS BEEN DOING VERY WELL THE LAST
FEW DAYS...PUSHES TS ACTIVITY INTO SOUTHWEST AZ LATER THIS
MORNING...AND INTO SE CA THIS AFTERNOON. THUS...HAVE DECIDED TO
RAISE POPS ACROSS OUR ENTIRE CWA FOR TODAY AND TONIGHT...ALSO BEING
SUPPORTED BY THE FACT THAT VERY DEEP SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW WILL LIKELY
ALLOW PLENTY OF MOISTURE TO SPREAD NORTHWARD INTO THE REGION AS WELL.

STORMS THAT FORM SUNDAY HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE STRONG GUSTY
OUTFLOW WINDS AND GENERATE AREAS OF BLOWING DUST THAT CAN CREATE
DRIVING AND HEALTH HAZARDS. THE POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAIN FROM THESE
STORMS APPEARS TO BE HIGHER THEN WHAT WE HAVE SEEN FOR THE PASS FEW
DAYS AS WELL...DUE TO THE GREATER EXTENT OF STORM COVERAGE AND THE
POSSIBILITY FOR MORE ORGANIZED STORM ACTIVITY. HEAVIER STORMS COULD
PRODUCE LOCALIZED FLOODING OF ROADWAYS AND PONDING OF WATER IN LOW
LYING AREAS.

DECENT MOISTURE WILL REMAIN IN THE AREA THROUGH MONDAY WITH
CONTINUED STORM CHANCES...BUT MODELS INDICATE A DRYING WESTERLY FLOW
WILL SET UP STARTING TUESDAY. TUESDAY MAY BE A BIT OF A TRANSITION
DAY WITH STORMS MAINLY FOCUSED ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN AREAS...BUT
CAN/T RULE OUT A FEW STORMS ACROSS THE LOWER DESERTS. LATEST
MODEL RUNS HAVE DEFINITELY BEEN TRENDING TOWARD A SOMEWHAT DRIER MID
WEEK PERIOD WITH 1000-700MB MIXING RATIOS DROPPING INTO THE 6-8
G/KG RANGE AND PWATS DROPPING TO BETWEEN 1.0 AND 1.5 INCHES. AT THIS
MOMENT...IT LOOKS LIKE ANY MONSOON ACTIVITY FOR WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY WILL LIKELY BE CONFINED TO FAR EASTERN ARIZONA. MODELS THEN
POINT TOWARD A BIT OF MOISTURE RESURGENCE FOR FRIDAY INTO NEXT
SATURDAY.

TEMPERATURES FOR THE PERIOD SHOULD FALL WITHIN A SMALL TEMPERATURE
RANGE OF RIGHT AROUND SEASONAL NORMALS. SOME AREAS MAY APPROACH THE
110 DEGREE MARK FOR HIGHS ON WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY AS DRIER AIR
ALLOWS FOR A BUMP IN TEMPERATURES.

&&

.AVIATION...
SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA INCLUDING KPHX...KIWA...AND KSDL...
ONGOING CONVECTION SOUTHWEST OF THE METRO THIS MORNING HAS RESULTED
IN BLDU ACROSS ALL PHOENIX TERMINALS. EXPECT HAZY SKIES TO LINGER
THROUGH MID MORNING BEFORE IMPROVING SHORTLY BEFORE NOON. AFTER
THAT...LOOKS TO BE ANOTHER ACTIVE DAY WITH STORMS MAKING THEIR WAY
INTO THE METRO FROM THE SOUTHEAST. LOOKS LIKE THE BEST OPPORTUNITY
FOR STORMS WILL BE AFTER 00Z WITH THE USUAL IMPACTS /DUST AND STRONG
WINDS/ LIKELY.

SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA AND SOUTHWEST ARIZONA INCLUDING KIPL AND KBLH...
INCREASED CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AT BOTH SE CA
TERMINALS TODAY. WITH STORMS ALREADY DEVELOPING EAST OF
BLYTHE...THEY SHOULD BE THE FIRST TO SEE ACTIVITY /AS EARLY AS 16Z
POSSIBLY/. IPL WILL LIKELY HANG ON UNTIL LATER THIS AFTERNOON BUT
ALL HI-RES GUIDANCE INDICATES STORMS WILL DEVELOP AFTER 19Z.

AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDED TAFS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...
NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND HIGHER RELATIVE HUMIDITY LEVELS ARE
EXPECTED. MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY LEVELS WILL RANGE FROM 15 TO 25
PERCENT AND RECOVER OVERNIGHT TO 35 TO 45 PERCENT. THERE WILL BE A
DAILY THREAT OF AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS...BUT THESE WILL
BE MAINLY CONFINED TO THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA.
WINDS WILL BE GENERALLY LESS THAN 15 MPH...EXCEPT IN THE VICINITY OF
THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

AZ...NONE.

CA...NONE.

&&

$$

VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/PHOENIX

DISCUSSION...DEWEY
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...PERCHA/KUHLMAN
AVIATION...LEINS
FIRE WEATHER...HIRSCH/MCLANE









000
FXUS65 KPSR 271708
AFDPSR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PHOENIX AZ
1010 AM MST SUN JUL 27 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
AN ACTIVE MONSOON PATTERN APPEARS TO BE ON TAP FOR TODAY AS A WEAK
DISTURBANCE MOVES NORTHWESTWARD INTO SOUTHERN ARIZONA AND SOUTHEAST
CA...INCREASING THE THREAT FOR THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE REGION.
MONSOON MOISTURE WILL THEN LIKELY REMAIN ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH
THE EARLY PART OF THIS WEEK...WITH A CHANCE FOR AFTERNOON AND
EVENING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EACH DAY. SOME REDUCTION IN
MONSOON ACTIVITY IS POSSIBLE BY THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK AS WESTERLY
FLOW ALOFT BRINGS SOMEWHAT DRIER AIR INTO THE REGION.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
MORNING SATELLITE AND RADAR HAVE BEEN QUITE ACTIVE ACROSS THE
CENTRAL...SOUTHERN AND FAR SOUTHWEST PORTIONS OF ARIZONA AS WELL AS
SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA FROM LATE LAST NIGHT THROUGH THIS MORNING. AS
COULD BE SEEN ON RADAR...A ROTATING MCS PROGRESSED EASTWARD ACROSS
SOUTHERN ARIZONA INTO THE LOWER COLORADO RIVER VALLEY THIS MORNING
BRINGING RAIN AND THUNDERSTORMS TO SOUTHEASTERN CALIFORNIA. ALL OF
THE ACTIVITY LAST NIGHT HAS ALLOWED CLOUD COVER TO REMAIN A LARGE
FACTOR IN OUR TEMPERATURE FORECAST FOR TODAY...WHICH WILL LIKELY BE
SEVERAL DEGREES COOLER THAN WAS ORIGINALLY FORECAST. HAVE MADE SOME
LARGE CHANGES TO THE FORECAST MAX TEMPS AS WELL AS POP CHANCES THIS
MORNING. TAKING INTO CONSIDERATION THE LOCAL HIGH-RESOLUTION
MODELS...A BREAK IN ACTIVITY LOOKS PROMISING THIS AFTERNOON WITH
CLEARING CLOUDS AND A RETURN OF ACTIVITY AFTER 5PM FOR FAR SOUTHEAST
ARIZONA AND AREAS NORTHWARD THEREAFTER.

MOISTURE IS DEFINITELY IN PLACE...THE 12Z PSR AND TWC SOUNDING BOTH
HAVE JUST OVER 1.6 INCH OF PWAT. FAIRLY STRONG STEERING FLOW WINDS
FROM 500-700 MB /ABOUT 10K - 20K FT/ OF 25 - 30 KTS FROM THE
EAST-SOUTHEAST WILL HELP ANYTHING THAT FORMS OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN
TO MOVE WEST AND HOLD TOGETHER. ANOTHER INVERTED TROUGH FEATURE WILL
MOVE THROUGH NORTHERN MEXICO AND SOUTHERN ARIZONA THIS EVENING TO
IMPACT THE LOWER DESERT LOCATIONS SOMETIME BETWEEN 00Z-06Z.

&&

.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION.../ISSUED AT 245 AM MST/PDT 27 JULY/...
LATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY IS NOW SHOWING THE INVERTED TROF/MCS THAT
WAS OVER SONORA MEXICO LAST EVENING IS NOW MOVING INTO EXTREME
SOUTHERN AZ. RADAR RETURNS AT THIS TIME ARE SHOWING WIDESPREAD
SHOWER/TS ACTIVITY CURRENTLY MOVING ACROSS PIMA COUNTY...WITH SOME
WEAKER CELLS NOW MOVING INTO SOUTHWEST MARICOPA COUNTY. THE LATEST
HRRR HIGH-RES MODEL OUTPUT...WHICH HAS BEEN DOING VERY WELL THE LAST
FEW DAYS...PUSHES TS ACTIVITY INTO SOUTHWEST AZ LATER THIS
MORNING...AND INTO SE CA THIS AFTERNOON. THUS...HAVE DECIDED TO
RAISE POPS ACROSS OUR ENTIRE CWA FOR TODAY AND TONIGHT...ALSO BEING
SUPPORTED BY THE FACT THAT VERY DEEP SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW WILL LIKELY
ALLOW PLENTY OF MOISTURE TO SPREAD NORTHWARD INTO THE REGION AS WELL.

STORMS THAT FORM SUNDAY HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE STRONG GUSTY
OUTFLOW WINDS AND GENERATE AREAS OF BLOWING DUST THAT CAN CREATE
DRIVING AND HEALTH HAZARDS. THE POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAIN FROM THESE
STORMS APPEARS TO BE HIGHER THEN WHAT WE HAVE SEEN FOR THE PASS FEW
DAYS AS WELL...DUE TO THE GREATER EXTENT OF STORM COVERAGE AND THE
POSSIBILITY FOR MORE ORGANIZED STORM ACTIVITY. HEAVIER STORMS COULD
PRODUCE LOCALIZED FLOODING OF ROADWAYS AND PONDING OF WATER IN LOW
LYING AREAS.

DECENT MOISTURE WILL REMAIN IN THE AREA THROUGH MONDAY WITH
CONTINUED STORM CHANCES...BUT MODELS INDICATE A DRYING WESTERLY FLOW
WILL SET UP STARTING TUESDAY. TUESDAY MAY BE A BIT OF A TRANSITION
DAY WITH STORMS MAINLY FOCUSED ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN AREAS...BUT
CAN/T RULE OUT A FEW STORMS ACROSS THE LOWER DESERTS. LATEST
MODEL RUNS HAVE DEFINITELY BEEN TRENDING TOWARD A SOMEWHAT DRIER MID
WEEK PERIOD WITH 1000-700MB MIXING RATIOS DROPPING INTO THE 6-8
G/KG RANGE AND PWATS DROPPING TO BETWEEN 1.0 AND 1.5 INCHES. AT THIS
MOMENT...IT LOOKS LIKE ANY MONSOON ACTIVITY FOR WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY WILL LIKELY BE CONFINED TO FAR EASTERN ARIZONA. MODELS THEN
POINT TOWARD A BIT OF MOISTURE RESURGENCE FOR FRIDAY INTO NEXT
SATURDAY.

TEMPERATURES FOR THE PERIOD SHOULD FALL WITHIN A SMALL TEMPERATURE
RANGE OF RIGHT AROUND SEASONAL NORMALS. SOME AREAS MAY APPROACH THE
110 DEGREE MARK FOR HIGHS ON WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY AS DRIER AIR
ALLOWS FOR A BUMP IN TEMPERATURES.

&&

.AVIATION...
SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA INCLUDING KPHX...KIWA...AND KSDL...
ONGOING CONVECTION SOUTHWEST OF THE METRO THIS MORNING HAS RESULTED
IN BLDU ACROSS ALL PHOENIX TERMINALS. EXPECT HAZY SKIES TO LINGER
THROUGH MID MORNING BEFORE IMPROVING SHORTLY BEFORE NOON. AFTER
THAT...LOOKS TO BE ANOTHER ACTIVE DAY WITH STORMS MAKING THEIR WAY
INTO THE METRO FROM THE SOUTHEAST. LOOKS LIKE THE BEST OPPORTUNITY
FOR STORMS WILL BE AFTER 00Z WITH THE USUAL IMPACTS /DUST AND STRONG
WINDS/ LIKELY.

SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA AND SOUTHWEST ARIZONA INCLUDING KIPL AND KBLH...
INCREASED CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AT BOTH SE CA
TERMINALS TODAY. WITH STORMS ALREADY DEVELOPING EAST OF
BLYTHE...THEY SHOULD BE THE FIRST TO SEE ACTIVITY /AS EARLY AS 16Z
POSSIBLY/. IPL WILL LIKELY HANG ON UNTIL LATER THIS AFTERNOON BUT
ALL HI-RES GUIDANCE INDICATES STORMS WILL DEVELOP AFTER 19Z.

AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDED TAFS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...
NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND HIGHER RELATIVE HUMIDITY LEVELS ARE
EXPECTED. MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY LEVELS WILL RANGE FROM 15 TO 25
PERCENT AND RECOVER OVERNIGHT TO 35 TO 45 PERCENT. THERE WILL BE A
DAILY THREAT OF AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS...BUT THESE WILL
BE MAINLY CONFINED TO THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA.
WINDS WILL BE GENERALLY LESS THAN 15 MPH...EXCEPT IN THE VICINITY OF
THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

AZ...NONE.

CA...NONE.

&&

$$

VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/PHOENIX

DISCUSSION...DEWEY
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...PERCHA/KUHLMAN
AVIATION...LEINS
FIRE WEATHER...HIRSCH/MCLANE








000
FXUS65 KFGZ 271705
AFDFGZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ
1000 AM MST SUN JUL 27 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
AN ACTIVE MONSOON PATTERN WITH DEEP MOISTURE AND UPPER
LEVEL DISTURBANCES WILL PRODUCE SLOW MOVING SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS EACH AFTERNOON AND EVENING THROUGH MONDAY. FROM
TUESDAY ONWARD THE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE MOVES SOUTH TO A LESS
FAVORABLE POSITION...POSSIBLY RESULTING IN A DOWNWARD TREND FOR
STORMS.

&&

.DISCUSSION...MADE SOME MINOR FORECAST UPDATES BASED ON CURRENT
TRENDS. A SOUTHWEST-NORTHEAST ORIENTED BAND OF CLOUDS AND LIGHT
SHOWERS STRETCHES FROM YAVAPAI COUNTY TO THE 4-CORNERS...MOVING
SLOWLY TOWARD THE NORTHWEST. THESE CLOUDS MAY INHIBIT STRONGER
CONVECTION IN THESE AREAS FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS...WITH THE
SUNNY AREAS OF THE WESTERN MOGOLLON RIM AND WHITE MTNS MORE LIKELY
TO SEE ACTIVITY DEVELOPING BY MIDDAY. THE UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE
APPROACHING FROM THE SOUTHEAST COULD BECOME A FOCUS FOR STORMS LATER
THIS AFTERNOON AND WELL INTO THE EVENING...CURRENT FORECASTS HANDLE
THIS POSSIBILITY.

.PREV DISCUSSION...(300 AM MST)...THE UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE
CIRCULATION WILL BE CENTERED GENERALLY EAST OF AZ TODAY LEAVING US
IN A MOIST AND UNSTABLE SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW WITH ANOTHER ROUND OF
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS EXPECTED. AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE
NOW IN NORTHERN MEXICO IS EXPECTED TO ROTATE NORTH THROUGH THE STATE
LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT. APPRECIABLE CLOUD COVER FROM THE
OVERNIGHT/EARLY MORNING CONVECTION MAY DELAY THE START OF AFTERNOON
DEVELOPMENT TODAY...AND WITH THE ADDED FORCING FROM THE DISTURBANCE
THIS EVENING...WE HAVE INCREASED PRECIPITATION CHANCES THROUGH THE
EVENING HOURS.

MOIST AND UNSTABLE SOUTHERLY FLOW CONTINUES MONDAY WITH ANOTHER
UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE FORECAST TO ROTATE NORTH INTO NORTHERN AZ
LATE MONDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT AGAIN ENHANCING AFTERNOON/EVENING
CONVECTION.

OVERALL THE NEXT TWO DAYS ARE EXPECTED TO BE ACTIVE MONSOON DAYS
WITH THE MAIN THUNDERSTORM THREAT BEING HEAVY RAIN FROM SLOW
MOVING STORMS WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF FLOODING. SMALL HAIL AND
GUSTY OUTFLOW WINDS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE. THE HIGH PRESSURE CENTER
MOVES OVER AZ TUESDAY THROUGH NEXT WEEK POSSIBLY LEADING TO A
DOWNWARD TREND IN STORM ACTIVITY. TEMPERATURES WILL GENERALLY HOVER CLOSE
TO AVERAGE THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...
FOR THE 18Z PACKAGE...AREAS OF SMOKE FROM WILDFIRES MAY CAUSE
PERIODS OF MVFR VSBY IN THE VICINITY OF KGCN/KFLG/KSEZ. SCT
SHRA/TSRA DEVELOPING AFT 18-20Z AND CONTINUING THRU EARLY EVENING.
MVFR VSBY AND WIND GUSTS UP TO 35KTS PSBL IN THE STRONGER STORMS.
AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDMENTS.

&&

.FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC.........JJ
AVIATION.......DB

FOR NORTHERN ARIZONA WEATHER INFORMATION VISIT
WEATHER.GOV/FLAGSTAFF





000
FXUS65 KFGZ 271705
AFDFGZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ
1000 AM MST SUN JUL 27 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
AN ACTIVE MONSOON PATTERN WITH DEEP MOISTURE AND UPPER
LEVEL DISTURBANCES WILL PRODUCE SLOW MOVING SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS EACH AFTERNOON AND EVENING THROUGH MONDAY. FROM
TUESDAY ONWARD THE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE MOVES SOUTH TO A LESS
FAVORABLE POSITION...POSSIBLY RESULTING IN A DOWNWARD TREND FOR
STORMS.

&&

.DISCUSSION...MADE SOME MINOR FORECAST UPDATES BASED ON CURRENT
TRENDS. A SOUTHWEST-NORTHEAST ORIENTED BAND OF CLOUDS AND LIGHT
SHOWERS STRETCHES FROM YAVAPAI COUNTY TO THE 4-CORNERS...MOVING
SLOWLY TOWARD THE NORTHWEST. THESE CLOUDS MAY INHIBIT STRONGER
CONVECTION IN THESE AREAS FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS...WITH THE
SUNNY AREAS OF THE WESTERN MOGOLLON RIM AND WHITE MTNS MORE LIKELY
TO SEE ACTIVITY DEVELOPING BY MIDDAY. THE UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE
APPROACHING FROM THE SOUTHEAST COULD BECOME A FOCUS FOR STORMS LATER
THIS AFTERNOON AND WELL INTO THE EVENING...CURRENT FORECASTS HANDLE
THIS POSSIBILITY.

.PREV DISCUSSION...(300 AM MST)...THE UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE
CIRCULATION WILL BE CENTERED GENERALLY EAST OF AZ TODAY LEAVING US
IN A MOIST AND UNSTABLE SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW WITH ANOTHER ROUND OF
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS EXPECTED. AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE
NOW IN NORTHERN MEXICO IS EXPECTED TO ROTATE NORTH THROUGH THE STATE
LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT. APPRECIABLE CLOUD COVER FROM THE
OVERNIGHT/EARLY MORNING CONVECTION MAY DELAY THE START OF AFTERNOON
DEVELOPMENT TODAY...AND WITH THE ADDED FORCING FROM THE DISTURBANCE
THIS EVENING...WE HAVE INCREASED PRECIPITATION CHANCES THROUGH THE
EVENING HOURS.

MOIST AND UNSTABLE SOUTHERLY FLOW CONTINUES MONDAY WITH ANOTHER
UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE FORECAST TO ROTATE NORTH INTO NORTHERN AZ
LATE MONDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT AGAIN ENHANCING AFTERNOON/EVENING
CONVECTION.

OVERALL THE NEXT TWO DAYS ARE EXPECTED TO BE ACTIVE MONSOON DAYS
WITH THE MAIN THUNDERSTORM THREAT BEING HEAVY RAIN FROM SLOW
MOVING STORMS WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF FLOODING. SMALL HAIL AND
GUSTY OUTFLOW WINDS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE. THE HIGH PRESSURE CENTER
MOVES OVER AZ TUESDAY THROUGH NEXT WEEK POSSIBLY LEADING TO A
DOWNWARD TREND IN STORM ACTIVITY. TEMPERATURES WILL GENERALLY HOVER CLOSE
TO AVERAGE THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...
FOR THE 18Z PACKAGE...AREAS OF SMOKE FROM WILDFIRES MAY CAUSE
PERIODS OF MVFR VSBY IN THE VICINITY OF KGCN/KFLG/KSEZ. SCT
SHRA/TSRA DEVELOPING AFT 18-20Z AND CONTINUING THRU EARLY EVENING.
MVFR VSBY AND WIND GUSTS UP TO 35KTS PSBL IN THE STRONGER STORMS.
AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDMENTS.

&&

.FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC.........JJ
AVIATION.......DB

FOR NORTHERN ARIZONA WEATHER INFORMATION VISIT
WEATHER.GOV/FLAGSTAFF




000
FXUS65 KTWC 271644
AFDTWC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ
930 AM MST SUN JUL 27 2014

.SYNOPSIS...EXPECT A GOOD CHANCE OF MAINLY AFTERNOON AND EVENING
THUNDERSTORMS TO START THE WEEK. SOME STORMS WILL GENERATE LOCALLY
HEAVY RAIN AND STRONG GUSTY WINDS. FEWER STORMS ARE EXPECTED AROUND
MID WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVERHEAD ACCOMPANIED BY SEVERAL
DEGREES OF HEATING. A STRONGER CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS RETURNS ONCE
AGAIN TO END THE WEEK AND TAKE US INTO NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.DISCUSSION...YESTERDAY WE INDEED HAD SOME MID LEVEL WARMING AND MID
LEVEL DRYING DURING THE DAY FOR MUCH OF SOUTHEAST ARIZONA. MANY
AREAS OTHER THAN THE FAR EAST AND SOUTH WERE UNABLE TO TAKE
ADVANTAGE OF OTHERWISE FAVORABLE CONDITIONS. THERE WAS PLENTY OF
UNTAPPED ENERGY IN THE ATMOSPHERE BY LATE AFTERNOON...AND OUTFLOWS
PUSHING ACROSS FROM THE SOUTHEAST AND EAST WERE ABLE TO TRIGGER
STORMS OVERNIGHT THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS.

WE WILL SEE A DOWN TREND IMMEDIATELY BEHIND THIS ACTIVITY THROUGH
WESTERN AND CENTRAL AREAS (SAY...FROM TUCSON WESTWARD) DURING THE
MORNING HOURS WITH EARLY CLEARING IN MOST EASTERN AREAS. IN ADDITION
AND MOST IMPORTANTLY...WE STILL HAVE THE STRONG IMPULSE COMING IN ON
OUR BRISK EASTERLY FLOW FROM CHIHUAHUA LATE TODAY AND TONIGHT TO
TAKE ADVANTAGE OF DEEP MOISTURE IN PLACE (PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES
BACK UP AROUND 1.4 TO 1.6 INCHES). AFTER INITIAL STRONG STORM
DEVELOPMENT EXPECTED IN MAINLY EASTERN AND FAR SOUTHERN AREAS...WE
SHOULD MANAGE TO SPREAD THUNDERSTORMS INTO CENTRAL AND WESTERN AREAS
BETWEEN 00Z-06Z. SOME UPDATES EARLIER TO REFLECT THESE TRENDS.

STILL LOOKING AT A POSSIBLE DOWNTURN BY TUESDAY OR WEDNESDAY AND
LASTING INTO AT LEAST THURSDAY AS A SECONDARY HIGH CENTER
RECONSOLIDATES (BRIEFLY) NEARLY OVERHEAD. THIS WILL TEND TO PUSH
STORM ACTIVITY BACK TO BORDER AND MOUNTAIN AREAS WHILE WE HEAT UP
SEVERAL DEGREES (PERHAPS AGAIN CLIMBING TO A FEW DEGREES SHY OF
RECORD LEVELS).

THAT SECONDARY HIGH SHOULD WEAKEN LATE THURSDAY INTO EARLY FRIDAY
WITH THE RIDGE REORIENTING ONCE AGAIN INTO A MORE FAVORABLE POSITION
FOR STRONG THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE FOR SE AZ BY FRIDAY OR SATURDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...VALID THRU 28/16Z.
EXPECT SCATTERED TSRA/SHRA TO REDEVELOP EAST OF KTUS THIS AFTERNOON
AND SPREAD THROUGH MOST OF SOUTHEAST ARIZONA LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND
EARLY EVENING AFTER 28/00Z. MVFR CONDITIONS WITH THE STRONGER TSRA
ALONG WITH WIND GUSTS TO NEAR 40-45 KTS. OTHERWISE CLOUD DECKS WILL
GENERALLY BE AT 7-12K FT AGL THRU THE PERIOD. AVIATION DISCUSSION
NOT UPDATED FOR TAF AMENDMENTS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...SCATTERED MOSTLY AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS
THIS WEEK. EXPECT STRONG...GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS NEAR THE STRONGER
STORMS. OTHERWISE...NORMAL DIURNAL WIND TRENDS WILL OCCUR WITH
OCCASIONAL GUSTS DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS DUE TO DAYTIME HEATING.

&&

.TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...YOUTUBE...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/TUCSON

MEYER/GLUECK





000
FXUS65 KTWC 271644
AFDTWC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ
930 AM MST SUN JUL 27 2014

.SYNOPSIS...EXPECT A GOOD CHANCE OF MAINLY AFTERNOON AND EVENING
THUNDERSTORMS TO START THE WEEK. SOME STORMS WILL GENERATE LOCALLY
HEAVY RAIN AND STRONG GUSTY WINDS. FEWER STORMS ARE EXPECTED AROUND
MID WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVERHEAD ACCOMPANIED BY SEVERAL
DEGREES OF HEATING. A STRONGER CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS RETURNS ONCE
AGAIN TO END THE WEEK AND TAKE US INTO NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.DISCUSSION...YESTERDAY WE INDEED HAD SOME MID LEVEL WARMING AND MID
LEVEL DRYING DURING THE DAY FOR MUCH OF SOUTHEAST ARIZONA. MANY
AREAS OTHER THAN THE FAR EAST AND SOUTH WERE UNABLE TO TAKE
ADVANTAGE OF OTHERWISE FAVORABLE CONDITIONS. THERE WAS PLENTY OF
UNTAPPED ENERGY IN THE ATMOSPHERE BY LATE AFTERNOON...AND OUTFLOWS
PUSHING ACROSS FROM THE SOUTHEAST AND EAST WERE ABLE TO TRIGGER
STORMS OVERNIGHT THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS.

WE WILL SEE A DOWN TREND IMMEDIATELY BEHIND THIS ACTIVITY THROUGH
WESTERN AND CENTRAL AREAS (SAY...FROM TUCSON WESTWARD) DURING THE
MORNING HOURS WITH EARLY CLEARING IN MOST EASTERN AREAS. IN ADDITION
AND MOST IMPORTANTLY...WE STILL HAVE THE STRONG IMPULSE COMING IN ON
OUR BRISK EASTERLY FLOW FROM CHIHUAHUA LATE TODAY AND TONIGHT TO
TAKE ADVANTAGE OF DEEP MOISTURE IN PLACE (PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES
BACK UP AROUND 1.4 TO 1.6 INCHES). AFTER INITIAL STRONG STORM
DEVELOPMENT EXPECTED IN MAINLY EASTERN AND FAR SOUTHERN AREAS...WE
SHOULD MANAGE TO SPREAD THUNDERSTORMS INTO CENTRAL AND WESTERN AREAS
BETWEEN 00Z-06Z. SOME UPDATES EARLIER TO REFLECT THESE TRENDS.

STILL LOOKING AT A POSSIBLE DOWNTURN BY TUESDAY OR WEDNESDAY AND
LASTING INTO AT LEAST THURSDAY AS A SECONDARY HIGH CENTER
RECONSOLIDATES (BRIEFLY) NEARLY OVERHEAD. THIS WILL TEND TO PUSH
STORM ACTIVITY BACK TO BORDER AND MOUNTAIN AREAS WHILE WE HEAT UP
SEVERAL DEGREES (PERHAPS AGAIN CLIMBING TO A FEW DEGREES SHY OF
RECORD LEVELS).

THAT SECONDARY HIGH SHOULD WEAKEN LATE THURSDAY INTO EARLY FRIDAY
WITH THE RIDGE REORIENTING ONCE AGAIN INTO A MORE FAVORABLE POSITION
FOR STRONG THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE FOR SE AZ BY FRIDAY OR SATURDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...VALID THRU 28/16Z.
EXPECT SCATTERED TSRA/SHRA TO REDEVELOP EAST OF KTUS THIS AFTERNOON
AND SPREAD THROUGH MOST OF SOUTHEAST ARIZONA LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND
EARLY EVENING AFTER 28/00Z. MVFR CONDITIONS WITH THE STRONGER TSRA
ALONG WITH WIND GUSTS TO NEAR 40-45 KTS. OTHERWISE CLOUD DECKS WILL
GENERALLY BE AT 7-12K FT AGL THRU THE PERIOD. AVIATION DISCUSSION
NOT UPDATED FOR TAF AMENDMENTS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...SCATTERED MOSTLY AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS
THIS WEEK. EXPECT STRONG...GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS NEAR THE STRONGER
STORMS. OTHERWISE...NORMAL DIURNAL WIND TRENDS WILL OCCUR WITH
OCCASIONAL GUSTS DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS DUE TO DAYTIME HEATING.

&&

.TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...YOUTUBE...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/TUCSON

MEYER/GLUECK






000
FXUS65 KPSR 271125 AAA
AFDPSR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PHOENIX AZ
424 AM MST SUN JUL 27 2014

.UPDATE...UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION...

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
AN ACTIVE MONSOON PATTERN APPEARS TO BE ON TAP FOR TODAY AS A WEAK
DISTURBANCE MOVES NORTHWESTWARD INTO SOUTHERN ARIZONA AND SOUTHEAST
CA...INCREASING THE THREAT FOR THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE REGION.
MONSOON MOISTURE WILL THEN LIKELY REMAIN ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH
THE EARLY PART OF THIS WEEK...WITH A CHANCE FOR AFTERNOON AND
EVENING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EACH DAY. SOME REDUCTION IN
MONSOON ACTIVITY IS POSSIBLE BY THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK AS WESTERLY
FLOW ALOFT BRINGS SOMEWHAT DRIER AIR INTO THE REGION.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
LATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY IS NOW SHOWING THE INVERTED TROF/MCS THAT
WAS OVER SONORA MEXICO LAST EVENING IS NOW MOVING INTO EXTREME
SOUTHERN AZ. RADAR RETURNS AT THIS TIME ARE SHOWING WIDESPREAD
SHOWER/TS ACTIVITY CURRENTLY MOVING ACROSS PIMA COUNTY...WITH SOME
WEAKER CELLS NOW MOVING INTO SOUTHWEST MARICOPA COUNTY. THE LATEST
HRRR HIGH-RES MODEL OUTPUT...WHICH HAS BEEN DOING VERY WELL THE LAST
FEW DAYS...PUSHES TS ACTIVITY INTO SOUTHWEST AZ LATER THIS
MORNING...AND INTO SE CA THIS AFTERNOON. THUS...HAVE DECIDED TO
RAISE POPS ACROSS OUR ENTIRE CWA FOR TODAY AND TONIGHT...ALSO BEING
SUPPORTED BY THE FACT THAT VERY DEEP SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW WILL LIKELY
ALLOW PLENTY OF MOISTURE TO SPREAD NORTHWARD INTO THE REGION AS WELL.

STORMS THAT FORM SUNDAY HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE STRONG GUSTY
OUTFLOW WINDS AND GENERATE AREAS OF BLOWING DUST THAT CAN CREATE
DRIVING AND HEALTH HAZARDS. THE POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAIN FROM THESE
STORMS APPEARS TO BE HIGHER THEN WHAT WE HAVE SEEN FOR THE PASS FEW
DAYS AS WELL...DUE TO THE GREATER EXTENT OF STORM COVERAGE AND THE
POSSIBILITY FOR MORE ORGANIZED STORM ACTIVITY. HEAVIER STORMS COULD
PRODUCE LOCALIZED FLOODING OF ROADWAYS AND PONDING OF WATER IN LOW
LYING AREAS.

DECENT MOISTURE WILL REMAIN IN THE AREA THROUGH MONDAY WITH
CONTINUED STORM CHANCES...BUT MODELS INDICATE A DRYING WESTERLY FLOW
WILL SET UP STARTING TUESDAY. TUESDAY MAY BE A BIT OF A TRANSITION
DAY WITH STORMS MAINLY FOCUSED ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN AREAS...BUT
CAN/T RULE OUT A FEW STORMS ACROSS THE LOWER DESERTS. LATEST
MODEL RUNS HAVE DEFINITELY BEEN TRENDING TOWARD A SOMEWHAT DRIER MID
WEEK PERIOD WITH 1000-700MB MIXING RATIOS DROPPING INTO THE 6-8
G/KG RANGE AND PWATS DROPPING TO BETWEEN 1.0 AND 1.5 INCHES. AT THIS
MOMENT...IT LOOKS LIKE ANY MONSOON ACTIVITY FOR WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY WILL LIKELY BE CONFINED TO FAR EASTERN ARIZONA. MODELS THEN
POINT TOWARD A BIT OF MOISTURE RESURGENCE FOR FRIDAY INTO NEXT
SATURDAY.

TEMPERATURES FOR THE PERIOD SHOULD FALL WITHIN A SMALL TEMPERATURE
RANGE OF RIGHT AROUND SEASONAL NORMALS. SOME AREAS MAY APPROACH THE
110 DEGREE MARK FOR HIGHS ON WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY AS DRIER AIR
ALLOWS FOR A BUMP IN TEMPERATURES.

&&

.AVIATION...
SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA INCLUDING KPHX...KIWA...AND KSDL...
ONGOING CONVECTION SOUTHWEST OF THE METRO THIS MORNING HAS RESULTED
IN BLDU ACROSS ALL PHOENIX TERMINALS. EXPECT HAZY SKIES TO LINGER
THROUGH MID MORNING BEFORE IMPROVING SHORTLY BEFORE NOON. AFTER
THAT...LOOKS TO BE ANOTHER ACTIVE DAY WITH STORMS MAKING THEIR WAY
INTO THE METRO FROM THE SOUTHEAST. LOOKS LIKE THE BEST OPPORTUNITY
FOR STORMS WILL BE AFTER 00Z WITH THE USUAL IMPACTS /DUST AND STRONG
WINDS/ LIKELY.

SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA AND SOUTHWEST ARIZONA INCLUDING KIPL AND KBLH...
INCREASED CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AT BOTH SE CA
TERMINALS TODAY. WITH STORMS ALREADY DEVELOPING EAST OF
BLYTHE...THEY SHOULD BE THE FIRST TO SEE ACTIVITY /AS EARLY AS 16Z
POSSIBLY/. IPL WILL LIKELY HANG ON UNTIL LATER THIS AFTERNOON BUT
ALL HI-RES GUIDANCE INDICATES STORMS WILL DEVELOP AFTER 19Z.

AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDED TAFS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...
NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND HIGHER RELATIVE HUMIDITY LEVELS ARE
EXPECTED. MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY LEVELS WILL RANGE FROM 15 TO 25
PERCENT AND RECOVER OVERNIGHT TO 35 TO 45 PERCENT. THERE WILL BE A
DAILY THREAT OF AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS...BUT THESE WILL
BE MAINLY CONFINED TO THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA.
WINDS WILL BE GENERALLY LESS THAN 15 MPH...EXCEPT IN THE VICINITY OF
THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

AZ...NONE.

CA...NONE.

&&

$$

VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/PHOENIX

DISCUSSION...PERCHA/KUHLMAN
AVIATION...LEINS
FIRE WEATHER...HIRSCH/MCLANE






000
FXUS65 KPSR 271125 AAA
AFDPSR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PHOENIX AZ
424 AM MST SUN JUL 27 2014

.UPDATE...UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION...

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
AN ACTIVE MONSOON PATTERN APPEARS TO BE ON TAP FOR TODAY AS A WEAK
DISTURBANCE MOVES NORTHWESTWARD INTO SOUTHERN ARIZONA AND SOUTHEAST
CA...INCREASING THE THREAT FOR THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE REGION.
MONSOON MOISTURE WILL THEN LIKELY REMAIN ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH
THE EARLY PART OF THIS WEEK...WITH A CHANCE FOR AFTERNOON AND
EVENING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EACH DAY. SOME REDUCTION IN
MONSOON ACTIVITY IS POSSIBLE BY THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK AS WESTERLY
FLOW ALOFT BRINGS SOMEWHAT DRIER AIR INTO THE REGION.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
LATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY IS NOW SHOWING THE INVERTED TROF/MCS THAT
WAS OVER SONORA MEXICO LAST EVENING IS NOW MOVING INTO EXTREME
SOUTHERN AZ. RADAR RETURNS AT THIS TIME ARE SHOWING WIDESPREAD
SHOWER/TS ACTIVITY CURRENTLY MOVING ACROSS PIMA COUNTY...WITH SOME
WEAKER CELLS NOW MOVING INTO SOUTHWEST MARICOPA COUNTY. THE LATEST
HRRR HIGH-RES MODEL OUTPUT...WHICH HAS BEEN DOING VERY WELL THE LAST
FEW DAYS...PUSHES TS ACTIVITY INTO SOUTHWEST AZ LATER THIS
MORNING...AND INTO SE CA THIS AFTERNOON. THUS...HAVE DECIDED TO
RAISE POPS ACROSS OUR ENTIRE CWA FOR TODAY AND TONIGHT...ALSO BEING
SUPPORTED BY THE FACT THAT VERY DEEP SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW WILL LIKELY
ALLOW PLENTY OF MOISTURE TO SPREAD NORTHWARD INTO THE REGION AS WELL.

STORMS THAT FORM SUNDAY HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE STRONG GUSTY
OUTFLOW WINDS AND GENERATE AREAS OF BLOWING DUST THAT CAN CREATE
DRIVING AND HEALTH HAZARDS. THE POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAIN FROM THESE
STORMS APPEARS TO BE HIGHER THEN WHAT WE HAVE SEEN FOR THE PASS FEW
DAYS AS WELL...DUE TO THE GREATER EXTENT OF STORM COVERAGE AND THE
POSSIBILITY FOR MORE ORGANIZED STORM ACTIVITY. HEAVIER STORMS COULD
PRODUCE LOCALIZED FLOODING OF ROADWAYS AND PONDING OF WATER IN LOW
LYING AREAS.

DECENT MOISTURE WILL REMAIN IN THE AREA THROUGH MONDAY WITH
CONTINUED STORM CHANCES...BUT MODELS INDICATE A DRYING WESTERLY FLOW
WILL SET UP STARTING TUESDAY. TUESDAY MAY BE A BIT OF A TRANSITION
DAY WITH STORMS MAINLY FOCUSED ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN AREAS...BUT
CAN/T RULE OUT A FEW STORMS ACROSS THE LOWER DESERTS. LATEST
MODEL RUNS HAVE DEFINITELY BEEN TRENDING TOWARD A SOMEWHAT DRIER MID
WEEK PERIOD WITH 1000-700MB MIXING RATIOS DROPPING INTO THE 6-8
G/KG RANGE AND PWATS DROPPING TO BETWEEN 1.0 AND 1.5 INCHES. AT THIS
MOMENT...IT LOOKS LIKE ANY MONSOON ACTIVITY FOR WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY WILL LIKELY BE CONFINED TO FAR EASTERN ARIZONA. MODELS THEN
POINT TOWARD A BIT OF MOISTURE RESURGENCE FOR FRIDAY INTO NEXT
SATURDAY.

TEMPERATURES FOR THE PERIOD SHOULD FALL WITHIN A SMALL TEMPERATURE
RANGE OF RIGHT AROUND SEASONAL NORMALS. SOME AREAS MAY APPROACH THE
110 DEGREE MARK FOR HIGHS ON WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY AS DRIER AIR
ALLOWS FOR A BUMP IN TEMPERATURES.

&&

.AVIATION...
SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA INCLUDING KPHX...KIWA...AND KSDL...
ONGOING CONVECTION SOUTHWEST OF THE METRO THIS MORNING HAS RESULTED
IN BLDU ACROSS ALL PHOENIX TERMINALS. EXPECT HAZY SKIES TO LINGER
THROUGH MID MORNING BEFORE IMPROVING SHORTLY BEFORE NOON. AFTER
THAT...LOOKS TO BE ANOTHER ACTIVE DAY WITH STORMS MAKING THEIR WAY
INTO THE METRO FROM THE SOUTHEAST. LOOKS LIKE THE BEST OPPORTUNITY
FOR STORMS WILL BE AFTER 00Z WITH THE USUAL IMPACTS /DUST AND STRONG
WINDS/ LIKELY.

SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA AND SOUTHWEST ARIZONA INCLUDING KIPL AND KBLH...
INCREASED CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AT BOTH SE CA
TERMINALS TODAY. WITH STORMS ALREADY DEVELOPING EAST OF
BLYTHE...THEY SHOULD BE THE FIRST TO SEE ACTIVITY /AS EARLY AS 16Z
POSSIBLY/. IPL WILL LIKELY HANG ON UNTIL LATER THIS AFTERNOON BUT
ALL HI-RES GUIDANCE INDICATES STORMS WILL DEVELOP AFTER 19Z.

AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDED TAFS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...
NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND HIGHER RELATIVE HUMIDITY LEVELS ARE
EXPECTED. MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY LEVELS WILL RANGE FROM 15 TO 25
PERCENT AND RECOVER OVERNIGHT TO 35 TO 45 PERCENT. THERE WILL BE A
DAILY THREAT OF AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS...BUT THESE WILL
BE MAINLY CONFINED TO THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA.
WINDS WILL BE GENERALLY LESS THAN 15 MPH...EXCEPT IN THE VICINITY OF
THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

AZ...NONE.

CA...NONE.

&&

$$

VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/PHOENIX

DISCUSSION...PERCHA/KUHLMAN
AVIATION...LEINS
FIRE WEATHER...HIRSCH/MCLANE





000
FXUS65 KTWC 271115
AFDTWC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ
415 AM MST SUN JUL 27 2014

.SYNOPSIS...EXPECT SCATTERED MAINLY AFTERNOON AND EVENING
THUNDERSTORMS THIS WEEK. SOME STORMS WILL GENERATE LOCALLY HEAVY
RAIN AND STRONG GUSTY WINDS.

&&

.DISCUSSION...KEMX WSR-88D DETECTED NUMEROUS 35-55 DBZ ECHOES ACROSS
WRN/CENTRAL PIMA COUNTY VALID 1110Z. ISOLATED MOSTLY LESS THAN 45
DBZ ECHOES WERE OCCURRING FROM TUCSON EWD/SWD TO THE NEW MEXICO/
INTERNATIONAL BORDERS. IR SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATED MCS EXTENDING
FROM SOUTH CENTRAL AZ SEWD INTO NRN SONORA. VARIOUS RUC HRRR
SOLUTIONS HAVE BEEN VERY CONSISTENT WITH DEPICTING PRECIP TO
CONTINUE UNTIL AROUND MID-MORNING WEST OF TUCSON AS A MCV MOVES NWWD
ACROSS NWRN SONORA. MEANWHILE...THE ISOLATED SHOWERS/TSTMS ONGOING
FROM TUCSON EWD/SWD HAVE NOT BEEN WELL HANDLED BY THE RUC HRRR...
THAT HAD BEEN VERY CONSISTENT WITH DEPICTING PRECIP-FREE CONDITIONS
TO OCCUR THRU LATE THIS MORNING.

SUN-MON...
UPPER RIDGE IS PROGGED TO AMPLIFY OVER THE WRN CONUS. AMPLE MOISTURE
WILL BE AVAILABLE TO SUPPORT SCATTERED SHOWERS/TSTMS...WITH THE BULK
OF THE ACTIVITY TO OCCUR DURING THE AFTERNOON/EVENING HOURS.
ALTHOUGH NO TWO DAYS ARE EXACTLY IDENTICAL DURING THE MONSOON...FROM
A NWP MODEL PERSPECTIVE...THERE APPEAR TO BE SIMILARITIES WITH
SHOWERS/TSTMS THAT OCCURRED SAT AND SAT NIGHT AND WHAT IS PROGGED TO
OCCUR SUN-MON. FOR INSTANCE...IF CLEARING IS SUFFICIENT ACROSS ERN
SECTIONS DURING THE MORNING HOURS...THEN SHOWER/TSTM INITIATION
SHOULD OCCUR EAST-TO-SOUTH OF TUCSON BY EARLY AFTERNOON. THIS
ACTIVITY SHOULD THEN GENERALLY MOVE NWWD AND BECOME DOMINANT WEST OF
TUCSON AFTER MIDNIGHT INTO THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. AT ANY RATE...
THE MAIN THREATS WILL BE STRONG WIND GUSTS AND HEAVY RAINFALL.

TUE-WED...
27/00Z GFS/ECMWF WERE SIMILAR WITH DEPICTING DECREASED COVERAGE OF
SHOWERS/TSTMS AS THE MID-LEVEL STEERING FLOW BECOMES INCREASINGLY
WLY. THERE WILL BE ENOUGH MOISTURE TO MAINTAIN SCATTERED MOSTLY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWERS/TSTMS EAST-TO-SOUTH OF TUCSON WITH
LESSER PRECIP CHANCES NORTHWEST OF TUCSON.

THUR-SAT...
GFS/ECWMF WERE SIMILAR WITH DEPICTING INCREASING MOISTURE ACROSS SE
AZ AS THE UPPER HIGH BECOMES CENTERED NEAR THE FOUR CORNERS REGION.
THESE SOLUTIONS DIVERGED FROM PREVIOUS SOLUTIONS THAT DEPICTED A
POTENTIAL DRYING TREND ESPECIALLY ACROSS WRN SECTIONS BY EARLY NEXT
WEEKEND. HAVE ALSO NOTED THAT THE ECMWF WAS MARKEDLY MORE ROBUST
WITH QPF/S AND THE POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAINFALL VERSUS THE GFS.
STILL MUCH TOO SOON TO HAVE HIGH CONFIDENCE IN JUST ONE SOLUTION OF
MEDIUM RANGE FORECAST MODELS. AT ANY RATE...HAVE OPTED TO INCREASE
INHERITED POPS SOMEWHAT...ESPECIALLY BY NEXT SAT SCATTERED COVERAGE
OF SHOWERS/TSTMS IS EXPECTED TO OCCUR ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA.

HIGH TEMPS THRU SAT WILL GENERALLY BE QUITE CLOSE TO SEASONAL
NORMALS. THE EXCEPTION WILL BE WED-THUR WHEN HIGH TEMPS ARE FORECAST
TO AVERAGE ABOUT 2-5 DEGS F OR SO ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION...VALID THRU 28/12Z.
EXPECT SCATTERED TSRA/SHRA THRU EARLY MONDAY MORNING. MVFR VSBYS
SHOULD OCCUR WITH THE STRONGER TSRA ALONG WITH WIND GUSTS TO NEAR
40-45 KTS. CLOUD DECKS WILL GENERALLY BE AT 7-12K FT AGL THRU THE
PERIOD. AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR TAF AMENDMENTS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...SCATTERED MOSTLY AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS
WILL PREVAIL THIS WEEK. EXPECT STRONG...GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS NEAR
THE STRONGER STORMS. OTHERWISE...NORMAL DIURNAL WIND TRENDS WILL
OCCUR WITH OCCASIONAL GUSTS DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS DUE TO
DAYTIME HEATING.

&&

.TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...YOUTUBE...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/TUCSON

FRANCIS






000
FXUS65 KTWC 271115
AFDTWC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ
415 AM MST SUN JUL 27 2014

.SYNOPSIS...EXPECT SCATTERED MAINLY AFTERNOON AND EVENING
THUNDERSTORMS THIS WEEK. SOME STORMS WILL GENERATE LOCALLY HEAVY
RAIN AND STRONG GUSTY WINDS.

&&

.DISCUSSION...KEMX WSR-88D DETECTED NUMEROUS 35-55 DBZ ECHOES ACROSS
WRN/CENTRAL PIMA COUNTY VALID 1110Z. ISOLATED MOSTLY LESS THAN 45
DBZ ECHOES WERE OCCURRING FROM TUCSON EWD/SWD TO THE NEW MEXICO/
INTERNATIONAL BORDERS. IR SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATED MCS EXTENDING
FROM SOUTH CENTRAL AZ SEWD INTO NRN SONORA. VARIOUS RUC HRRR
SOLUTIONS HAVE BEEN VERY CONSISTENT WITH DEPICTING PRECIP TO
CONTINUE UNTIL AROUND MID-MORNING WEST OF TUCSON AS A MCV MOVES NWWD
ACROSS NWRN SONORA. MEANWHILE...THE ISOLATED SHOWERS/TSTMS ONGOING
FROM TUCSON EWD/SWD HAVE NOT BEEN WELL HANDLED BY THE RUC HRRR...
THAT HAD BEEN VERY CONSISTENT WITH DEPICTING PRECIP-FREE CONDITIONS
TO OCCUR THRU LATE THIS MORNING.

SUN-MON...
UPPER RIDGE IS PROGGED TO AMPLIFY OVER THE WRN CONUS. AMPLE MOISTURE
WILL BE AVAILABLE TO SUPPORT SCATTERED SHOWERS/TSTMS...WITH THE BULK
OF THE ACTIVITY TO OCCUR DURING THE AFTERNOON/EVENING HOURS.
ALTHOUGH NO TWO DAYS ARE EXACTLY IDENTICAL DURING THE MONSOON...FROM
A NWP MODEL PERSPECTIVE...THERE APPEAR TO BE SIMILARITIES WITH
SHOWERS/TSTMS THAT OCCURRED SAT AND SAT NIGHT AND WHAT IS PROGGED TO
OCCUR SUN-MON. FOR INSTANCE...IF CLEARING IS SUFFICIENT ACROSS ERN
SECTIONS DURING THE MORNING HOURS...THEN SHOWER/TSTM INITIATION
SHOULD OCCUR EAST-TO-SOUTH OF TUCSON BY EARLY AFTERNOON. THIS
ACTIVITY SHOULD THEN GENERALLY MOVE NWWD AND BECOME DOMINANT WEST OF
TUCSON AFTER MIDNIGHT INTO THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. AT ANY RATE...
THE MAIN THREATS WILL BE STRONG WIND GUSTS AND HEAVY RAINFALL.

TUE-WED...
27/00Z GFS/ECMWF WERE SIMILAR WITH DEPICTING DECREASED COVERAGE OF
SHOWERS/TSTMS AS THE MID-LEVEL STEERING FLOW BECOMES INCREASINGLY
WLY. THERE WILL BE ENOUGH MOISTURE TO MAINTAIN SCATTERED MOSTLY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWERS/TSTMS EAST-TO-SOUTH OF TUCSON WITH
LESSER PRECIP CHANCES NORTHWEST OF TUCSON.

THUR-SAT...
GFS/ECWMF WERE SIMILAR WITH DEPICTING INCREASING MOISTURE ACROSS SE
AZ AS THE UPPER HIGH BECOMES CENTERED NEAR THE FOUR CORNERS REGION.
THESE SOLUTIONS DIVERGED FROM PREVIOUS SOLUTIONS THAT DEPICTED A
POTENTIAL DRYING TREND ESPECIALLY ACROSS WRN SECTIONS BY EARLY NEXT
WEEKEND. HAVE ALSO NOTED THAT THE ECMWF WAS MARKEDLY MORE ROBUST
WITH QPF/S AND THE POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAINFALL VERSUS THE GFS.
STILL MUCH TOO SOON TO HAVE HIGH CONFIDENCE IN JUST ONE SOLUTION OF
MEDIUM RANGE FORECAST MODELS. AT ANY RATE...HAVE OPTED TO INCREASE
INHERITED POPS SOMEWHAT...ESPECIALLY BY NEXT SAT SCATTERED COVERAGE
OF SHOWERS/TSTMS IS EXPECTED TO OCCUR ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA.

HIGH TEMPS THRU SAT WILL GENERALLY BE QUITE CLOSE TO SEASONAL
NORMALS. THE EXCEPTION WILL BE WED-THUR WHEN HIGH TEMPS ARE FORECAST
TO AVERAGE ABOUT 2-5 DEGS F OR SO ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION...VALID THRU 28/12Z.
EXPECT SCATTERED TSRA/SHRA THRU EARLY MONDAY MORNING. MVFR VSBYS
SHOULD OCCUR WITH THE STRONGER TSRA ALONG WITH WIND GUSTS TO NEAR
40-45 KTS. CLOUD DECKS WILL GENERALLY BE AT 7-12K FT AGL THRU THE
PERIOD. AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR TAF AMENDMENTS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...SCATTERED MOSTLY AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS
WILL PREVAIL THIS WEEK. EXPECT STRONG...GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS NEAR
THE STRONGER STORMS. OTHERWISE...NORMAL DIURNAL WIND TRENDS WILL
OCCUR WITH OCCASIONAL GUSTS DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS DUE TO
DAYTIME HEATING.

&&

.TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...YOUTUBE...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/TUCSON

FRANCIS






000
FXUS65 KTWC 271115
AFDTWC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ
415 AM MST SUN JUL 27 2014

.SYNOPSIS...EXPECT SCATTERED MAINLY AFTERNOON AND EVENING
THUNDERSTORMS THIS WEEK. SOME STORMS WILL GENERATE LOCALLY HEAVY
RAIN AND STRONG GUSTY WINDS.

&&

.DISCUSSION...KEMX WSR-88D DETECTED NUMEROUS 35-55 DBZ ECHOES ACROSS
WRN/CENTRAL PIMA COUNTY VALID 1110Z. ISOLATED MOSTLY LESS THAN 45
DBZ ECHOES WERE OCCURRING FROM TUCSON EWD/SWD TO THE NEW MEXICO/
INTERNATIONAL BORDERS. IR SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATED MCS EXTENDING
FROM SOUTH CENTRAL AZ SEWD INTO NRN SONORA. VARIOUS RUC HRRR
SOLUTIONS HAVE BEEN VERY CONSISTENT WITH DEPICTING PRECIP TO
CONTINUE UNTIL AROUND MID-MORNING WEST OF TUCSON AS A MCV MOVES NWWD
ACROSS NWRN SONORA. MEANWHILE...THE ISOLATED SHOWERS/TSTMS ONGOING
FROM TUCSON EWD/SWD HAVE NOT BEEN WELL HANDLED BY THE RUC HRRR...
THAT HAD BEEN VERY CONSISTENT WITH DEPICTING PRECIP-FREE CONDITIONS
TO OCCUR THRU LATE THIS MORNING.

SUN-MON...
UPPER RIDGE IS PROGGED TO AMPLIFY OVER THE WRN CONUS. AMPLE MOISTURE
WILL BE AVAILABLE TO SUPPORT SCATTERED SHOWERS/TSTMS...WITH THE BULK
OF THE ACTIVITY TO OCCUR DURING THE AFTERNOON/EVENING HOURS.
ALTHOUGH NO TWO DAYS ARE EXACTLY IDENTICAL DURING THE MONSOON...FROM
A NWP MODEL PERSPECTIVE...THERE APPEAR TO BE SIMILARITIES WITH
SHOWERS/TSTMS THAT OCCURRED SAT AND SAT NIGHT AND WHAT IS PROGGED TO
OCCUR SUN-MON. FOR INSTANCE...IF CLEARING IS SUFFICIENT ACROSS ERN
SECTIONS DURING THE MORNING HOURS...THEN SHOWER/TSTM INITIATION
SHOULD OCCUR EAST-TO-SOUTH OF TUCSON BY EARLY AFTERNOON. THIS
ACTIVITY SHOULD THEN GENERALLY MOVE NWWD AND BECOME DOMINANT WEST OF
TUCSON AFTER MIDNIGHT INTO THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. AT ANY RATE...
THE MAIN THREATS WILL BE STRONG WIND GUSTS AND HEAVY RAINFALL.

TUE-WED...
27/00Z GFS/ECMWF WERE SIMILAR WITH DEPICTING DECREASED COVERAGE OF
SHOWERS/TSTMS AS THE MID-LEVEL STEERING FLOW BECOMES INCREASINGLY
WLY. THERE WILL BE ENOUGH MOISTURE TO MAINTAIN SCATTERED MOSTLY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWERS/TSTMS EAST-TO-SOUTH OF TUCSON WITH
LESSER PRECIP CHANCES NORTHWEST OF TUCSON.

THUR-SAT...
GFS/ECWMF WERE SIMILAR WITH DEPICTING INCREASING MOISTURE ACROSS SE
AZ AS THE UPPER HIGH BECOMES CENTERED NEAR THE FOUR CORNERS REGION.
THESE SOLUTIONS DIVERGED FROM PREVIOUS SOLUTIONS THAT DEPICTED A
POTENTIAL DRYING TREND ESPECIALLY ACROSS WRN SECTIONS BY EARLY NEXT
WEEKEND. HAVE ALSO NOTED THAT THE ECMWF WAS MARKEDLY MORE ROBUST
WITH QPF/S AND THE POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAINFALL VERSUS THE GFS.
STILL MUCH TOO SOON TO HAVE HIGH CONFIDENCE IN JUST ONE SOLUTION OF
MEDIUM RANGE FORECAST MODELS. AT ANY RATE...HAVE OPTED TO INCREASE
INHERITED POPS SOMEWHAT...ESPECIALLY BY NEXT SAT SCATTERED COVERAGE
OF SHOWERS/TSTMS IS EXPECTED TO OCCUR ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA.

HIGH TEMPS THRU SAT WILL GENERALLY BE QUITE CLOSE TO SEASONAL
NORMALS. THE EXCEPTION WILL BE WED-THUR WHEN HIGH TEMPS ARE FORECAST
TO AVERAGE ABOUT 2-5 DEGS F OR SO ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION...VALID THRU 28/12Z.
EXPECT SCATTERED TSRA/SHRA THRU EARLY MONDAY MORNING. MVFR VSBYS
SHOULD OCCUR WITH THE STRONGER TSRA ALONG WITH WIND GUSTS TO NEAR
40-45 KTS. CLOUD DECKS WILL GENERALLY BE AT 7-12K FT AGL THRU THE
PERIOD. AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR TAF AMENDMENTS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...SCATTERED MOSTLY AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS
WILL PREVAIL THIS WEEK. EXPECT STRONG...GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS NEAR
THE STRONGER STORMS. OTHERWISE...NORMAL DIURNAL WIND TRENDS WILL
OCCUR WITH OCCASIONAL GUSTS DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS DUE TO
DAYTIME HEATING.

&&

.TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...YOUTUBE...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/TUCSON

FRANCIS






000
FXUS65 KTWC 271115
AFDTWC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ
415 AM MST SUN JUL 27 2014

.SYNOPSIS...EXPECT SCATTERED MAINLY AFTERNOON AND EVENING
THUNDERSTORMS THIS WEEK. SOME STORMS WILL GENERATE LOCALLY HEAVY
RAIN AND STRONG GUSTY WINDS.

&&

.DISCUSSION...KEMX WSR-88D DETECTED NUMEROUS 35-55 DBZ ECHOES ACROSS
WRN/CENTRAL PIMA COUNTY VALID 1110Z. ISOLATED MOSTLY LESS THAN 45
DBZ ECHOES WERE OCCURRING FROM TUCSON EWD/SWD TO THE NEW MEXICO/
INTERNATIONAL BORDERS. IR SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATED MCS EXTENDING
FROM SOUTH CENTRAL AZ SEWD INTO NRN SONORA. VARIOUS RUC HRRR
SOLUTIONS HAVE BEEN VERY CONSISTENT WITH DEPICTING PRECIP TO
CONTINUE UNTIL AROUND MID-MORNING WEST OF TUCSON AS A MCV MOVES NWWD
ACROSS NWRN SONORA. MEANWHILE...THE ISOLATED SHOWERS/TSTMS ONGOING
FROM TUCSON EWD/SWD HAVE NOT BEEN WELL HANDLED BY THE RUC HRRR...
THAT HAD BEEN VERY CONSISTENT WITH DEPICTING PRECIP-FREE CONDITIONS
TO OCCUR THRU LATE THIS MORNING.

SUN-MON...
UPPER RIDGE IS PROGGED TO AMPLIFY OVER THE WRN CONUS. AMPLE MOISTURE
WILL BE AVAILABLE TO SUPPORT SCATTERED SHOWERS/TSTMS...WITH THE BULK
OF THE ACTIVITY TO OCCUR DURING THE AFTERNOON/EVENING HOURS.
ALTHOUGH NO TWO DAYS ARE EXACTLY IDENTICAL DURING THE MONSOON...FROM
A NWP MODEL PERSPECTIVE...THERE APPEAR TO BE SIMILARITIES WITH
SHOWERS/TSTMS THAT OCCURRED SAT AND SAT NIGHT AND WHAT IS PROGGED TO
OCCUR SUN-MON. FOR INSTANCE...IF CLEARING IS SUFFICIENT ACROSS ERN
SECTIONS DURING THE MORNING HOURS...THEN SHOWER/TSTM INITIATION
SHOULD OCCUR EAST-TO-SOUTH OF TUCSON BY EARLY AFTERNOON. THIS
ACTIVITY SHOULD THEN GENERALLY MOVE NWWD AND BECOME DOMINANT WEST OF
TUCSON AFTER MIDNIGHT INTO THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. AT ANY RATE...
THE MAIN THREATS WILL BE STRONG WIND GUSTS AND HEAVY RAINFALL.

TUE-WED...
27/00Z GFS/ECMWF WERE SIMILAR WITH DEPICTING DECREASED COVERAGE OF
SHOWERS/TSTMS AS THE MID-LEVEL STEERING FLOW BECOMES INCREASINGLY
WLY. THERE WILL BE ENOUGH MOISTURE TO MAINTAIN SCATTERED MOSTLY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWERS/TSTMS EAST-TO-SOUTH OF TUCSON WITH
LESSER PRECIP CHANCES NORTHWEST OF TUCSON.

THUR-SAT...
GFS/ECWMF WERE SIMILAR WITH DEPICTING INCREASING MOISTURE ACROSS SE
AZ AS THE UPPER HIGH BECOMES CENTERED NEAR THE FOUR CORNERS REGION.
THESE SOLUTIONS DIVERGED FROM PREVIOUS SOLUTIONS THAT DEPICTED A
POTENTIAL DRYING TREND ESPECIALLY ACROSS WRN SECTIONS BY EARLY NEXT
WEEKEND. HAVE ALSO NOTED THAT THE ECMWF WAS MARKEDLY MORE ROBUST
WITH QPF/S AND THE POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAINFALL VERSUS THE GFS.
STILL MUCH TOO SOON TO HAVE HIGH CONFIDENCE IN JUST ONE SOLUTION OF
MEDIUM RANGE FORECAST MODELS. AT ANY RATE...HAVE OPTED TO INCREASE
INHERITED POPS SOMEWHAT...ESPECIALLY BY NEXT SAT SCATTERED COVERAGE
OF SHOWERS/TSTMS IS EXPECTED TO OCCUR ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA.

HIGH TEMPS THRU SAT WILL GENERALLY BE QUITE CLOSE TO SEASONAL
NORMALS. THE EXCEPTION WILL BE WED-THUR WHEN HIGH TEMPS ARE FORECAST
TO AVERAGE ABOUT 2-5 DEGS F OR SO ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION...VALID THRU 28/12Z.
EXPECT SCATTERED TSRA/SHRA THRU EARLY MONDAY MORNING. MVFR VSBYS
SHOULD OCCUR WITH THE STRONGER TSRA ALONG WITH WIND GUSTS TO NEAR
40-45 KTS. CLOUD DECKS WILL GENERALLY BE AT 7-12K FT AGL THRU THE
PERIOD. AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR TAF AMENDMENTS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...SCATTERED MOSTLY AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS
WILL PREVAIL THIS WEEK. EXPECT STRONG...GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS NEAR
THE STRONGER STORMS. OTHERWISE...NORMAL DIURNAL WIND TRENDS WILL
OCCUR WITH OCCASIONAL GUSTS DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS DUE TO
DAYTIME HEATING.

&&

.TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...YOUTUBE...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/TUCSON

FRANCIS






000
FXUS65 KTWC 271055
AFDTWC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ
355 AM MST SUN JUL 27 2014

.SYNOPSIS...EXPECT SCATTERED MAINLY AFTERNOON AND EVENING
THUNDERSTORMS THIS WEEK. SOME STORMS WILL GENERATE LOCALLY HEAVY
RAIN AND STRONG GUSTY WINDS.

&&

.DISCUSSION...KEMX WSR-88D DETECTED NUMEROUS 35-55 DBZ ECHOES ACROSS
WRN/CENTRAL PIMA COUNTY VALID 1050Z. ISOLATED MOSTLY LESS THAN 45
DBZ ECHOES WERE OCCURRING FROM TUCSON EWD/SWD TO THE NEW MEXICO/
INTERNATIONAL BORDERS. IR SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATED MCS EXTENDING
FROM SOUTH CENTRAL AZ SEWD INTO NRN SONORA. VARIOUS RUC HRRR
SOLUTIONS HAVE BEEN VERY CONSISTENT WITH DEPICTING PRECIP TO
CONTINUE UNTIL AROUND MID-MORNING WEST OF TUCSON AS A MCV MOVES NWWD
ACROSS NWRN SONORA. MEANWHILE...THE ISOLATED SHOWERS/TSTMS ONGOING
FROM TUCSON EWD/SWD HAVE NOT BEEN WELL HANDLED BY THE RUC HRRR...
THAT HAD BEEN VERY CONSISTENT WITH DEPICTING PRECIP-FREE CONDITIONS
TO OCCUR THRU LATE THIS MORNING.

SUN-MON...
UPPER RIDGE IS PROGGED TO AMPLIFY OVER THE WRN CONUS. AMPLE MOISTURE
WILL BE AVAILABLE TO SUPPORT SCATTERED SHOWERS/TSTMS...WITH THE BULK
OF THE ACTIVITY TO OCCUR DURING THE AFTERNOON/EVENING HOURS.
ALTHOUGH NO TWO DAYS ARE EXACTLY IDENTICAL DURING THE MONSOON...FROM
A NWP MODEL PERSPECTIVE...THERE APPEAR TO BE SIMILARITIES WITH
HAPPENED SAT AND SAT NIGHT AND WHAT IS PROGGED TO OCCUR THIS PERIOD.
FOR INSTANCE...IF CLEARING IS SUFFICIENT ACROSS ERN SECTIONS DURING
THE MORNING HOURS...THEN SHOWER/TSTM INITIATION SHOULD OCCUR EAST-
TO-SOUTH OF TUCSON BY EARLY AFTERNOON. THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD THEN
MOVE GENERALLY NWWD AND BECOME DOMINANT WEST OF TUCSON AFTER
MIDNIGHT INTO THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. AT ANY RATE...THE MAIN
THREATS WILL BE STRONG WIND GUSTS AND HEAVY RAINFALL.

TUE-WED...
27/00Z GFS/ECMWF WERE SIMILAR WITH DEPICTING DECREASED COVERAGE OF
SHOWERS/TSTMS AS THE MID-LEVEL STEERING FLOW BECOMES INCREASINGLY
WLY. THERE WILL BE ENOUGH MOISTURE TO MAINTAIN SCATTERED MOSTLY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWERS/TSTMS EAST-TO-SOUTH OF TUCSON WITH
LESSER PRECIP CHANCES NORTHWEST OF TUCSON.

THUR-SAT...
GFS/ECWMF WERE SIMILAR WITH DEPICTING INCREASING MOISTURE ACROSS SE
AZ AS THE UPPER HIGH BECOMES CENTERED NEAR THE FOUR CORNERS REGION.
THESE SOLUTIONS DIVERGED FROM PREVIOUS SOLUTIONS THAT DEPICTED A
POTENTIAL DRYING TREND ESPECIALLY ACROSS WRN SECTIONS BY EARLY NEXT
WEEKEND. HAVE ALSO NOTED THAT THE ECMWF WAS MARKEDLY MORE ROBUST
WITH QPF/S AND THE POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAINFALL VERSUS THE GFS.
STILL MUCH TOO SOON TO HAVE HIGH CONFIDENCE IN JUST ONE SOLUTION OF
MEDIUM RANGE FORECAST MODELS. AT ANY RATE...HAVE OPTED TO INCREASE
INHERITED POPS SOMEWHAT...ESPECIALLY BY NEXT SAT SCATTERED COVERAGE
OF SHOWERS/TSTMS IS EXPECTED TO OCCUR ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA.

HIGH TEMPS THRU SAT WILL GENERALLY BE QUITE CLOSE TO SEASONAL
NORMALS. THE EXCEPTION WILL BE WED-THUR WHEN HIGH TEMPS ARE FORECAST
TO AVERAGE ABOUT 2-5 DEGS F OR SO ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION...VALID THRU 28/12Z.
EXPECT SCATTERED TSRA/SHRA THRU EARLY MONDAY MORNING. MVFR VSBYS
SHOULD OCCUR WITH THE STRONGER TSRA ALONG WITH WIND GUSTS TO NEAR
40-45 KTS. CLOUD DECKS WILL GENERALLY BE AT 7-12K FT AGL THRU THE
PERIOD. AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR TAF AMENDMENTS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...SCATTERED MOSTLY AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS
WILL PREVAIL THIS WEEK. EXPECT STRONG...GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS NEAR
THE STRONGER STORMS. OTHERWISE...NORMAL DIURNAL WIND TRENDS WILL
OCCUR WITH OCCASIONAL GUSTS DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS DUE TO
DAYTIME HEATING.

&&

.TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...YOUTUBE...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/TUCSON

FRANCIS






000
FXUS65 KTWC 271055
AFDTWC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ
355 AM MST SUN JUL 27 2014

.SYNOPSIS...EXPECT SCATTERED MAINLY AFTERNOON AND EVENING
THUNDERSTORMS THIS WEEK. SOME STORMS WILL GENERATE LOCALLY HEAVY
RAIN AND STRONG GUSTY WINDS.

&&

.DISCUSSION...KEMX WSR-88D DETECTED NUMEROUS 35-55 DBZ ECHOES ACROSS
WRN/CENTRAL PIMA COUNTY VALID 1050Z. ISOLATED MOSTLY LESS THAN 45
DBZ ECHOES WERE OCCURRING FROM TUCSON EWD/SWD TO THE NEW MEXICO/
INTERNATIONAL BORDERS. IR SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATED MCS EXTENDING
FROM SOUTH CENTRAL AZ SEWD INTO NRN SONORA. VARIOUS RUC HRRR
SOLUTIONS HAVE BEEN VERY CONSISTENT WITH DEPICTING PRECIP TO
CONTINUE UNTIL AROUND MID-MORNING WEST OF TUCSON AS A MCV MOVES NWWD
ACROSS NWRN SONORA. MEANWHILE...THE ISOLATED SHOWERS/TSTMS ONGOING
FROM TUCSON EWD/SWD HAVE NOT BEEN WELL HANDLED BY THE RUC HRRR...
THAT HAD BEEN VERY CONSISTENT WITH DEPICTING PRECIP-FREE CONDITIONS
TO OCCUR THRU LATE THIS MORNING.

SUN-MON...
UPPER RIDGE IS PROGGED TO AMPLIFY OVER THE WRN CONUS. AMPLE MOISTURE
WILL BE AVAILABLE TO SUPPORT SCATTERED SHOWERS/TSTMS...WITH THE BULK
OF THE ACTIVITY TO OCCUR DURING THE AFTERNOON/EVENING HOURS.
ALTHOUGH NO TWO DAYS ARE EXACTLY IDENTICAL DURING THE MONSOON...FROM
A NWP MODEL PERSPECTIVE...THERE APPEAR TO BE SIMILARITIES WITH
HAPPENED SAT AND SAT NIGHT AND WHAT IS PROGGED TO OCCUR THIS PERIOD.
FOR INSTANCE...IF CLEARING IS SUFFICIENT ACROSS ERN SECTIONS DURING
THE MORNING HOURS...THEN SHOWER/TSTM INITIATION SHOULD OCCUR EAST-
TO-SOUTH OF TUCSON BY EARLY AFTERNOON. THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD THEN
MOVE GENERALLY NWWD AND BECOME DOMINANT WEST OF TUCSON AFTER
MIDNIGHT INTO THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. AT ANY RATE...THE MAIN
THREATS WILL BE STRONG WIND GUSTS AND HEAVY RAINFALL.

TUE-WED...
27/00Z GFS/ECMWF WERE SIMILAR WITH DEPICTING DECREASED COVERAGE OF
SHOWERS/TSTMS AS THE MID-LEVEL STEERING FLOW BECOMES INCREASINGLY
WLY. THERE WILL BE ENOUGH MOISTURE TO MAINTAIN SCATTERED MOSTLY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWERS/TSTMS EAST-TO-SOUTH OF TUCSON WITH
LESSER PRECIP CHANCES NORTHWEST OF TUCSON.

THUR-SAT...
GFS/ECWMF WERE SIMILAR WITH DEPICTING INCREASING MOISTURE ACROSS SE
AZ AS THE UPPER HIGH BECOMES CENTERED NEAR THE FOUR CORNERS REGION.
THESE SOLUTIONS DIVERGED FROM PREVIOUS SOLUTIONS THAT DEPICTED A
POTENTIAL DRYING TREND ESPECIALLY ACROSS WRN SECTIONS BY EARLY NEXT
WEEKEND. HAVE ALSO NOTED THAT THE ECMWF WAS MARKEDLY MORE ROBUST
WITH QPF/S AND THE POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAINFALL VERSUS THE GFS.
STILL MUCH TOO SOON TO HAVE HIGH CONFIDENCE IN JUST ONE SOLUTION OF
MEDIUM RANGE FORECAST MODELS. AT ANY RATE...HAVE OPTED TO INCREASE
INHERITED POPS SOMEWHAT...ESPECIALLY BY NEXT SAT SCATTERED COVERAGE
OF SHOWERS/TSTMS IS EXPECTED TO OCCUR ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA.

HIGH TEMPS THRU SAT WILL GENERALLY BE QUITE CLOSE TO SEASONAL
NORMALS. THE EXCEPTION WILL BE WED-THUR WHEN HIGH TEMPS ARE FORECAST
TO AVERAGE ABOUT 2-5 DEGS F OR SO ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION...VALID THRU 28/12Z.
EXPECT SCATTERED TSRA/SHRA THRU EARLY MONDAY MORNING. MVFR VSBYS
SHOULD OCCUR WITH THE STRONGER TSRA ALONG WITH WIND GUSTS TO NEAR
40-45 KTS. CLOUD DECKS WILL GENERALLY BE AT 7-12K FT AGL THRU THE
PERIOD. AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR TAF AMENDMENTS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...SCATTERED MOSTLY AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS
WILL PREVAIL THIS WEEK. EXPECT STRONG...GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS NEAR
THE STRONGER STORMS. OTHERWISE...NORMAL DIURNAL WIND TRENDS WILL
OCCUR WITH OCCASIONAL GUSTS DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS DUE TO
DAYTIME HEATING.

&&

.TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...YOUTUBE...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/TUCSON

FRANCIS





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