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000
FXUS65 KTWC 231035
AFDTWC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ
255 AM MST WED JUL 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...ENOUGH MOISTURE IS BACK IN PLACE FOR A CHANCE OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS. HOTTER TEMPERATURES ARE POSSIBLE AGAIN TODAY AND
THURSDAY. THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE THIS WEEKEND...
ESPECIALLY SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND SATURDAY NIGHT.

&&

.DISCUSSION...MOISTURE HAD FINALLY RETURNED TO SOUTHEAST ARIZONA AS
DEWPOINT TEMPERATURES WERE RUNNING AROUND 60 DEGREES EARLY THIS
MORNING. RECENT IR SATELLITE IMAGERY WAS SHOWING SOME EXTENSIVE
CLOUD COVER ACROSS THE AREA...WITH RADAR SHOWING A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS
AROUND ESPECIALLY ACROSS CENTRAL PIMA COUNTY. THAT SAID...STILL
EXPECTING HOTTER AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES TODAY EVEN THOUGH THE RAIN
CHANCES HAVE INCREASED AND A CLOUDY SKY WAS PRESENT. THIS MOISTURE
INCREASE WILL BE BRIEF AS DRIER AIR PUSHES IN FROM THE EAST AND THE
UPPER HIGH SHIFTS SOUTHWARD TOMORROW. THIS BREAK WILL ALSO BE SHORT
LIVED AS MODELS TRACK AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE THROUGH MEXICO
WHICH WILL LIKELY BRING A NOTICEABLE UPSWING IN THUNDERSTORMS
ACTIVITY OVER THE WEEKEND. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL
THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD...BUT THE WARMEST DAYS WILL OCCUR
TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY...WHEN READINGS WILL BE 8 TO 12 DEGS ABOVE
NORMAL. OTHERWISE...EXPECT HIGHS TO BE 3 TO 6 DEGS ABOVE NORMAL.
LOWS GENERALLY 4 TO 6 DEGS ABOVE NORMAL EACH DAY...BUT THE WARMEST
MORNINGS SHOULD OCCUR WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...VALID THRU 24/12Z.
REMNANT ISOLATED -SHRA WILL TAPER OFF BY 12Z WITH SCT-BKN CLOUDS
ABOVE 10K FT AGL. OTHERWISE...EXPECT SCT TSRA/SHRA TO DEVELOP AFT
18Z...INITIALLY OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN THEN INTO THE VALLEYS AFTER
20Z AND CONTINUING INTO THE EVENING. EXPECT BRIEF WIND GUSTS TO NEAR
40 KTS WITH THIS ACTIVITY. OTHERWISE...EXPECT SCT-BKN CLOUDS
MAINLY ABOVE 10K FT AGL INTO THURSDAY MORNING. AVIATION DISCUSSION
NOT UPDATED FOR TAF AMENDMENTS. AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR
TAF AMENDMENTS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...MOISTURE HAS RETURNED TO SOUTHEAST ARIZONA TODAY
WITH SCATTERED MAINLY AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS MOST OF SOUTHEAST ARIZONA TODAY. THERE WILL BE
A BRIEF DOWNTURN IN STORM COVERAGE THURSDAY BEFORE A MORE TYPICAL
MONSOON PATTERN MOVES IN BY THIS WEEKEND. EXPECT STRONG...GUSTY AND
ERRATIC WINDS WITH THE STRONGER THUNDERSTORMS. POTENTIALLY HOTTER
TEMPERATURES WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY WITH STRONG HIGH PRESSURE
NEARBY...BUT WITH THIS WILL BE MITIGATED SOMEWHAT BY THE MOISTURE
BACK IN THE PICTURE.

&&

.TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...YOUTUBE...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/TUCSON













000
FXUS65 KTWC 231035
AFDTWC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ
255 AM MST WED JUL 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...ENOUGH MOISTURE IS BACK IN PLACE FOR A CHANCE OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS. HOTTER TEMPERATURES ARE POSSIBLE AGAIN TODAY AND
THURSDAY. THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE THIS WEEKEND...
ESPECIALLY SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND SATURDAY NIGHT.

&&

.DISCUSSION...MOISTURE HAD FINALLY RETURNED TO SOUTHEAST ARIZONA AS
DEWPOINT TEMPERATURES WERE RUNNING AROUND 60 DEGREES EARLY THIS
MORNING. RECENT IR SATELLITE IMAGERY WAS SHOWING SOME EXTENSIVE
CLOUD COVER ACROSS THE AREA...WITH RADAR SHOWING A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS
AROUND ESPECIALLY ACROSS CENTRAL PIMA COUNTY. THAT SAID...STILL
EXPECTING HOTTER AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES TODAY EVEN THOUGH THE RAIN
CHANCES HAVE INCREASED AND A CLOUDY SKY WAS PRESENT. THIS MOISTURE
INCREASE WILL BE BRIEF AS DRIER AIR PUSHES IN FROM THE EAST AND THE
UPPER HIGH SHIFTS SOUTHWARD TOMORROW. THIS BREAK WILL ALSO BE SHORT
LIVED AS MODELS TRACK AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE THROUGH MEXICO
WHICH WILL LIKELY BRING A NOTICEABLE UPSWING IN THUNDERSTORMS
ACTIVITY OVER THE WEEKEND. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL
THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD...BUT THE WARMEST DAYS WILL OCCUR
TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY...WHEN READINGS WILL BE 8 TO 12 DEGS ABOVE
NORMAL. OTHERWISE...EXPECT HIGHS TO BE 3 TO 6 DEGS ABOVE NORMAL.
LOWS GENERALLY 4 TO 6 DEGS ABOVE NORMAL EACH DAY...BUT THE WARMEST
MORNINGS SHOULD OCCUR WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...VALID THRU 24/12Z.
REMNANT ISOLATED -SHRA WILL TAPER OFF BY 12Z WITH SCT-BKN CLOUDS
ABOVE 10K FT AGL. OTHERWISE...EXPECT SCT TSRA/SHRA TO DEVELOP AFT
18Z...INITIALLY OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN THEN INTO THE VALLEYS AFTER
20Z AND CONTINUING INTO THE EVENING. EXPECT BRIEF WIND GUSTS TO NEAR
40 KTS WITH THIS ACTIVITY. OTHERWISE...EXPECT SCT-BKN CLOUDS
MAINLY ABOVE 10K FT AGL INTO THURSDAY MORNING. AVIATION DISCUSSION
NOT UPDATED FOR TAF AMENDMENTS. AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR
TAF AMENDMENTS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...MOISTURE HAS RETURNED TO SOUTHEAST ARIZONA TODAY
WITH SCATTERED MAINLY AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS MOST OF SOUTHEAST ARIZONA TODAY. THERE WILL BE
A BRIEF DOWNTURN IN STORM COVERAGE THURSDAY BEFORE A MORE TYPICAL
MONSOON PATTERN MOVES IN BY THIS WEEKEND. EXPECT STRONG...GUSTY AND
ERRATIC WINDS WITH THE STRONGER THUNDERSTORMS. POTENTIALLY HOTTER
TEMPERATURES WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY WITH STRONG HIGH PRESSURE
NEARBY...BUT WITH THIS WILL BE MITIGATED SOMEWHAT BY THE MOISTURE
BACK IN THE PICTURE.

&&

.TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

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000
FXUS65 KFGZ 231006
AFDFGZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ
310 AM MST WED JUL 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...EXPECT A MODEST INCREASE IN SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY AS MONSOON CIRCULATION RETURNS TO ARIZONA. DAYTIME HIGH
TEMPERATURES WILL SLIGHTLY ABOVE AVERAGE INTO THE WEEKEND.

&&

.DISCUSSION...FAVORABLE CIRCULATION WILL IMPORT DECENT PW VALUES
INTO THE AREA FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE IS
LACKING AND SLIGHTLY HIGHER THAN NORMAL HGHTS WILL KEEP THE AIRMASS
A BIT CAPPY. HOWEVER...ENOUGH MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY IS IN PLACE
TO AT LEAST STATE THAT THE MONSOON IS BACK...JUST THAT COVERAGE WILL
BE LIMITED AND HEAVY RAIN PRODUCING STORMS ARE UNLIKELY. THE PATTERN
WILL REMAIN IN PLACE FOR THE FORESEEABLE FUTURE. WITH LIMITED CLOUD
COVER AND RAINFALL...DAYTIME HIGHS WILL CONTINUE TO RUN A BIT ABOVE
NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 12Z PACKAGE...PRIMARILY VFR CONDITIONS FOR THE
NEXT 24 HOURS. AREAS OF SMOKE FROM WILDFIRES...WITH MVFR VSBYS
POSSIBLE VCNTY KSEZ...KFLG...KGCN. SCATTERED -SHRA/TSRA DEVELOPING
AFTER 18Z. GUSTY OUTFLOW WINDS UP TO 40 KTS POSSIBLE NEAR STORM
ACTIVITY. AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDMENTS.

&&

.FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC.........PETERSON
AVIATION.......MCS

FOR NORTHERN ARIZONA WEATHER INFORMATION VISIT
WEATHER.GOV/FLAGSTAFF





000
FXUS65 KFGZ 231006
AFDFGZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ
310 AM MST WED JUL 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...EXPECT A MODEST INCREASE IN SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY AS MONSOON CIRCULATION RETURNS TO ARIZONA. DAYTIME HIGH
TEMPERATURES WILL SLIGHTLY ABOVE AVERAGE INTO THE WEEKEND.

&&

.DISCUSSION...FAVORABLE CIRCULATION WILL IMPORT DECENT PW VALUES
INTO THE AREA FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE IS
LACKING AND SLIGHTLY HIGHER THAN NORMAL HGHTS WILL KEEP THE AIRMASS
A BIT CAPPY. HOWEVER...ENOUGH MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY IS IN PLACE
TO AT LEAST STATE THAT THE MONSOON IS BACK...JUST THAT COVERAGE WILL
BE LIMITED AND HEAVY RAIN PRODUCING STORMS ARE UNLIKELY. THE PATTERN
WILL REMAIN IN PLACE FOR THE FORESEEABLE FUTURE. WITH LIMITED CLOUD
COVER AND RAINFALL...DAYTIME HIGHS WILL CONTINUE TO RUN A BIT ABOVE
NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 12Z PACKAGE...PRIMARILY VFR CONDITIONS FOR THE
NEXT 24 HOURS. AREAS OF SMOKE FROM WILDFIRES...WITH MVFR VSBYS
POSSIBLE VCNTY KSEZ...KFLG...KGCN. SCATTERED -SHRA/TSRA DEVELOPING
AFTER 18Z. GUSTY OUTFLOW WINDS UP TO 40 KTS POSSIBLE NEAR STORM
ACTIVITY. AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDMENTS.

&&

.FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC.........PETERSON
AVIATION.......MCS

FOR NORTHERN ARIZONA WEATHER INFORMATION VISIT
WEATHER.GOV/FLAGSTAFF




000
FXUS65 KTWC 230957
AFDTWC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ
255 AM MST WED JUL 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...ENOUGH MOISTURE IS BACK IN PLACE FOR A CHANCE OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS. HOTTER TEMPERATURES ARE POSSIBLE AGAIN TODAY AND
THURSDAY. THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE THIS WEEKEND...
ESPECIALLY SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND SATURDAY NIGHT.

&&

.DISCUSSION...MOISTURE HAD FINALLY RETURNED TO SOUTHEAST ARIZONA AS
DEWPOINT TEMPERATURES WERE RUNNING AROUND 60 DEGREES EARLY THIS
MORNING. RECENT IR SATELLITE IMAGERY WAS SHOWING SOME EXTENSIVE
CLOUD COVER ACROSS THE AREA...WITH RADAR SHOWING A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS
AROUND ESPECIALLY ACROSS CENTRAL PIMA COUNTY. THAT SAID...STILL
EXPECTING HOTTER AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES TODAY EVEN THOUGH THE RAIN
CHANCES HAVE INCREASED AND A CLOUDY SKY WAS PRESENT. THIS MOISTURE
INCREASE WILL BE BRIEF AS DRIER AIR PUSHES IN FROM THE EAST AND THE
UPPER HIGH SHIFTS SOUTHWARD TOMORROW. THIS BREAK WILL ALSO BE SHORT
LIVED AS MODELS TRACK AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE THROUGH MEXICO
WHICH WILL LIKELY BRING A NOTICEABLE UPSWING IN THUNDERSTORMS
ACTIVITY OVER THE WEEKEND. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL
THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD...BUT THE WARMEST DAYS WILL OCCUR
TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY...WHEN READINGS WILL BE 8 TO 12 DEGS ABOVE
NORMAL. OTHERWISE...EXPECT HIGHS TO BE 3 TO 6 DEGS ABOVE NORMAL.
LOWS GENERALLY 4 TO 6 DEGS ABOVE NORMAL EACH DAY...BUT THE WARMEST
MORNINGS SHOULD OCCUR WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...VALID THRU 24/12Z.
REMNANT ISOLATED -SHRA WILL TAPER OFF BY 12Z WITH SCT-BKN CLOUDS
ABOVE 10K FT AGL. OTHERWISE...EXPECT SCT TSRA/SHRA TO DEVELOP AFT
18Z...INITIALLY OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN THEN INTO THE VALLEYS AFTER
20Z AND CONTINUING INTO THE EVENING. EXPECT BRIEF WIND GUSTS TO NEAR
40 KTS WITH THIS ACTIVITY. OTHERWISE...EXPECT SCT-BKN CLOUDS
MAINLY ABOVE 10K FT AGL INTO THURSDAY MORNING. AVIATION DISCUSSION
NOT UPDATED FOR TAF AMENDMENTS. AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR
TAF AMENDMENTS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...MOISTURE HAS RETURNED TO SOUTHEAST ARIZONA TODAY
WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS MAINLY AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS MOST OF SOUTHEAST ARIZONA TODAY. THERE WILL BE
A BRIEF DOWNTURN IN STORM COVERAGE THURSDAY BEFORE A MORE TYPICAL
MONSOON PATTERN MOVES IN BY THIS WEEKEND. EXPECT STRONG...GUSTY AND
ERRATIC WINDS WITH THE STRONGER THUNDERSTORMS. POTENTIALLY HOTTER
TEMPERATURES WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY WITH STRONG HIGH PRESSURE
NEARBY...BUT WITH THIS WILL BE MITIGATED SOMEWHAT BY THE MOISTURE
BACK IN THE PICTURE.

&&

.TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...YOUTUBE...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/TUCSON









000
FXUS65 KTWC 230957
AFDTWC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ
255 AM MST WED JUL 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...ENOUGH MOISTURE IS BACK IN PLACE FOR A CHANCE OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS. HOTTER TEMPERATURES ARE POSSIBLE AGAIN TODAY AND
THURSDAY. THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE THIS WEEKEND...
ESPECIALLY SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND SATURDAY NIGHT.

&&

.DISCUSSION...MOISTURE HAD FINALLY RETURNED TO SOUTHEAST ARIZONA AS
DEWPOINT TEMPERATURES WERE RUNNING AROUND 60 DEGREES EARLY THIS
MORNING. RECENT IR SATELLITE IMAGERY WAS SHOWING SOME EXTENSIVE
CLOUD COVER ACROSS THE AREA...WITH RADAR SHOWING A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS
AROUND ESPECIALLY ACROSS CENTRAL PIMA COUNTY. THAT SAID...STILL
EXPECTING HOTTER AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES TODAY EVEN THOUGH THE RAIN
CHANCES HAVE INCREASED AND A CLOUDY SKY WAS PRESENT. THIS MOISTURE
INCREASE WILL BE BRIEF AS DRIER AIR PUSHES IN FROM THE EAST AND THE
UPPER HIGH SHIFTS SOUTHWARD TOMORROW. THIS BREAK WILL ALSO BE SHORT
LIVED AS MODELS TRACK AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE THROUGH MEXICO
WHICH WILL LIKELY BRING A NOTICEABLE UPSWING IN THUNDERSTORMS
ACTIVITY OVER THE WEEKEND. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL
THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD...BUT THE WARMEST DAYS WILL OCCUR
TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY...WHEN READINGS WILL BE 8 TO 12 DEGS ABOVE
NORMAL. OTHERWISE...EXPECT HIGHS TO BE 3 TO 6 DEGS ABOVE NORMAL.
LOWS GENERALLY 4 TO 6 DEGS ABOVE NORMAL EACH DAY...BUT THE WARMEST
MORNINGS SHOULD OCCUR WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...VALID THRU 24/12Z.
REMNANT ISOLATED -SHRA WILL TAPER OFF BY 12Z WITH SCT-BKN CLOUDS
ABOVE 10K FT AGL. OTHERWISE...EXPECT SCT TSRA/SHRA TO DEVELOP AFT
18Z...INITIALLY OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN THEN INTO THE VALLEYS AFTER
20Z AND CONTINUING INTO THE EVENING. EXPECT BRIEF WIND GUSTS TO NEAR
40 KTS WITH THIS ACTIVITY. OTHERWISE...EXPECT SCT-BKN CLOUDS
MAINLY ABOVE 10K FT AGL INTO THURSDAY MORNING. AVIATION DISCUSSION
NOT UPDATED FOR TAF AMENDMENTS. AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR
TAF AMENDMENTS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...MOISTURE HAS RETURNED TO SOUTHEAST ARIZONA TODAY
WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS MAINLY AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS MOST OF SOUTHEAST ARIZONA TODAY. THERE WILL BE
A BRIEF DOWNTURN IN STORM COVERAGE THURSDAY BEFORE A MORE TYPICAL
MONSOON PATTERN MOVES IN BY THIS WEEKEND. EXPECT STRONG...GUSTY AND
ERRATIC WINDS WITH THE STRONGER THUNDERSTORMS. POTENTIALLY HOTTER
TEMPERATURES WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY WITH STRONG HIGH PRESSURE
NEARBY...BUT WITH THIS WILL BE MITIGATED SOMEWHAT BY THE MOISTURE
BACK IN THE PICTURE.

&&

.TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...YOUTUBE...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/TUCSON









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000
FXUS65 KPSR 230946 CCA
AFDPSR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PHOENIX AZ
245 AM MST WED JUL 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
VERY STRONG HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE REGION WILL CONTINUE TO PRODUCE
VERY HOT TEMPERATURES THROUGH FRIDAY...WITH SOME LOCATIONS
APPROACHING...OR EVEN REACHING DAILY RECORD HIGHS. AT THE SAME
TIME...MONSOON MOISTURE WILL SLOWLY INCREASE OVER THE AREA...WITH
OCCASIONAL CLOUDINESS AT TIMES. A FURTHER INCREASE IN THE MOISTURE
LEVELS...COMBINED WITH SEVERAL WEAK WEATHER DISTURBANCES FROM
MEXICO...ARE FORECAST TO INCREASE THE CHANCE OF AFTERNOON AND
EVENING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...MAINLY ACROSS ARIZONA...THIS
WEEKEND...WITH A REDUCTION IN THE THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY FORECAST FOR
EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY...
A VERY STRONG DOME OF HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT...WITH 500MB HEIGHTS
REACHING 600DM OVER SOUTHERN CO/NORTHERN NM...AND 500MB HEIGHTS IN
THE 596-598DM RANGE IS FORECAST TO REMAIN OVER THE REGION TODAY.
THIS IS THE SAME AIRMASS THAT BROUGHT A HIGH OF 113 TO PHOENIX SKY
HARBOR ON TUESDAY. GIVEN THE FACT WE WILL BE STARTING OUT WARMER
THIS MORNING THAN WHAT WE SAW ON WED MORNING...WITH LOWS REMAINING
IN THE 90S ACROSS THE PHX URBAN CORE...AT FIRST BLUSH IT WOULD
APPEAR THAT WE WILL SEE EVEN WARMER HIGHS TODAY. HOWEVER...BOTH THE
GFS AND EURO ARE SHOWING AN INVERTED TROF ATTEMPTING TO MOVE
NORTHWESTWARD INTO SOUTH-CENTRAL AZ LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT. THE
COMBINATION OF THIS INVERTED TROF ALONG WITH MID-LEVEL MOISTURE
MOVING INTO THE REGION AHEAD OF IT IT EXPECTED TO INCREASE
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY ACROSS SE AZ TODAY...AND LIKELY AT LEAST
INCREASE THE CLOUDINESS ACROSS SOUTH-CENTRAL AZ. ALTHOUGH...AT THIS
POINT...IT APPEARS THAT STRONG SUBSIDENCE ALOFT AND A LACK OF
AVAILABLE MOISTURE BELOW 500MB WILL LIKELY KEEP MOST TS ACTIVITY OUT
OF OUR CWA...THERE IS A DECENT CHANCE OF AT LEAST SOME OUTFLOWS FROM
THESE STORMS WILL MAKE THEIR WAY INTO THE PHX AREA...WHICH COULD
TEMPER THE HEATING A BIT THIS AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...THE CURRENT
THINKING...AND THE LATEST HIGH-RES MODELS INDICATE THAT THESE
OUTFLOWS WILL LIKELY ARRIVE TOO LATE TO IMPACT OUR HIGH
TEMPERATURES...WITH ONLY THE INCREASE IN CLOUDINESS HOLDING OUR
WARMING BACK. THUS...HAVE PRETTY MUCH GONE WITH THE PREVIOUS SHIFT
IN OUR HIGH TEMPERATURES FORECASTS TODAY...STILL EXPECTING A
RECORD-TYING HIGH OF 114F AT SKY HARBOR. DEBRIS CLOUDINESS FROM
TODAY/S STORMS IS EXPECTED...TO ONCE AGAIN KEEP TEMPERATURES
ELEVATED TOMORROW NIGHT ACROSS THE PHX AREA...WITH SOME MORE 90F+
LOWS LIKELY ACROSS THE REGION ON THURSDAY MORNING.

THE FORECAST FOR THURSDAY/S HIGH IS A BIT MORE UNCERTAIN. ALTHOUGH
IT APPEARS THAT THE PASSAGE OF TODAY/S INVERTED TROF WILL WEAKEN THE
UPPER-LEVEL HIGH CENTER A BIT...WITH 500MB HEIGHTS FALLING INTO THE
593-594DM RANGE ACROSS OUR CWA ON THURSDAY AFTERNOON...DRIER AIR
WORKING ITS WAY IN FROM THE EAST WILL LIKELY DECREASE THE CLOUDINESS
ACROSS SOUTH-CENTRAL AZ AS THE MAIN MOISTURE PLUME SHIFTS OFF TO THE
WEST...WHICH WILL ALLOW FOR MORE SOLAR ISOLATION. THUS...EXPECTING
THURSDAY/S HIGHS TO RISE TO WITHIN A DEGREE OR SO OF WEDNESDAY/S
HIGHS...WHICH STILL SATISFY EXCESSIVE HEAT CRITERIA. THIS DRIER AIR
WILL LIKELY REDUCE CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY ACROSS SE AND SOUTH-CENTRAL
ARIZONA...WITH THE MAIN MOISTURE PLUME PERHAPS TRIGGERING AN
ISOLATED STORM OR TWO ACROSS SOUTHWEST AZ AND SOUTHEAST CA. THE MAIN
IMPACTS FROM THE STORMS WILL ONCE AGAIN BE GUSTY WINDS AND BLOWING
DUST RATHER THEN ANY SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL.

FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...
COOLER AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST THIS PERIOD AS THE
UPPER-LEVEL HIGH WEAKENS A BIT MORE AND A MORE SOUTHERLY FLOW ALOFT
BRINGS MORE MOISTURE INTO THE REGION. HIGHER HUMIDITIES ARE
EXPECTED...ALONG WITH A BETTER THREAT FOR AFTERNOON AND EVENING
CONVECTION. HOWEVER...WITH RATHER WARM AIR STILL REMAINING ALOFT
(500MB TEMPS IN THE -4C TO -6C RANGE) AND THE BEST MOISTURE
REMAINING TO OUR SOUTH...EXPECTING ONLY ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
ACROSS THE LOWER DESERTS...WITH WIND/DUST REMAINING THE MAIN ISSUE
RATHER THAN HEAVY RAINFALL.

MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...
BOTH THE GFS AND EURO ARE NOW SUGGESTING THAT THE MAIN 500MB RIDGE
AXIS WILL SHIFT SOUTHWARD OVER AZ AND SE AZ DURING THIS PERIOD AS A
VERY DEEP TROF (FOR MID-JULY) DIGS INTO THE GREAT LAKES
REGION...WHICH WOULD LIKELY SHIFT THE BEST MOISTURE WELL TO OUR
SOUTH INTO SONORA AND STABILIZE THE ATMOSPHERE...WHICH WOULD RESULT
IN ANOTHER BREAK IN THE MONSOON OVER OUR REGION.

&&

.CLIMATE...

RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURE FOR THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK.

CITY        JULY 23       JULY 24      JULY 25
----        -------       -------      -------
PHOENIX   114 IN 2006   114 IN 2006  115 IN 1943
YUMA      115 IN 1959   117 IN 1943  120 IN 1943

&&

.AVIATION...
SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA INCLUDING KPHX...KIWA...AND KSDL...
SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA AND SOUTHWEST ARIZONA INCLUDING KIPL AND KBLH...

ANTICIPATE SLOW INCREASE OF DEBRIS CLOUDS FROM SOUTHEAST ARIZONA AND
SONORA OVERNIGHT TONIGHT AND LINGERING FOR MUCH OF THE DAYTIME
WEDNESDAY...BASES GENERALLY AOA 15 KFT. ANTICIPATE SOUTHWEST AND
WEST WINDS TRANSITION TO SOUTHEAST WINDS BY SUNRISE AND LINGER FOR
MUCH OF THE DAY. ANTICIPATE THUNDERSTORMS TO GET CLOSER TO PHOENIX
AREA AIRFIELDS WEDNESDAY EVENING. CONFIDENCE TOO LOW AT THIS POINT
TO INSERT TEMPO TSRA IN THE TAF/S BUT ANTICIPATE OUTFLOWS FROM
DISTANT STORMS TO BE MORE LIKELY.

AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDED TAFS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY...
STRONG HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN THE PREDOMINANT WEATHER FEATURE
ACROSS THE REGION. BIGGEST IMPACT WILL BE THE HEAT...WITH ABOVE
NORMAL TEMPERATURES LIKELY THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE TREND WILL
BE TOWARDS INCREASING MOISTURE EACH DAY...THOUGH THUNDERSTORMS WILL
MAINLY BE CONCENTRATED IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF EASTERN AZ. ACROSS
THE LOWER DESERTS OF AZ...ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE
POSSIBLE...PARTICULARLY DURING THE WEEKEND...THOUGH THE GREATER
THREAT IS FOR OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES CAPABLE OF PRODUCING STRONG WIND
GUSTS. FURTHER WEST ACROSS SE CA...THE CHANCE FOR RAIN AND
THUNDERSTORM IMPACTS WILL BE EVEN LOWER. MINIMUM HUMIDITIES WILL
GENERALLY FALL INTO A 15-20 PERCENT RANGE WITH GOOD OVERNIGHT
RECOVERY.

&&

.PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

AZ...EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING FROM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY
EVENING AZZ020>023-025>028.

CA...EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING FROM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY
EVENING CAZ031>033.

&&

$$

VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/PHOENIX

DISCUSSION...PERCHA
CLIMATE...PERCHA
AVIATION....AJ
FIRE WEATHER...HIRSCH






000
FXUS65 KPSR 230946 CCA
AFDPSR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PHOENIX AZ
245 AM MST WED JUL 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
VERY STRONG HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE REGION WILL CONTINUE TO PRODUCE
VERY HOT TEMPERATURES THROUGH FRIDAY...WITH SOME LOCATIONS
APPROACHING...OR EVEN REACHING DAILY RECORD HIGHS. AT THE SAME
TIME...MONSOON MOISTURE WILL SLOWLY INCREASE OVER THE AREA...WITH
OCCASIONAL CLOUDINESS AT TIMES. A FURTHER INCREASE IN THE MOISTURE
LEVELS...COMBINED WITH SEVERAL WEAK WEATHER DISTURBANCES FROM
MEXICO...ARE FORECAST TO INCREASE THE CHANCE OF AFTERNOON AND
EVENING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...MAINLY ACROSS ARIZONA...THIS
WEEKEND...WITH A REDUCTION IN THE THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY FORECAST FOR
EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY...
A VERY STRONG DOME OF HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT...WITH 500MB HEIGHTS
REACHING 600DM OVER SOUTHERN CO/NORTHERN NM...AND 500MB HEIGHTS IN
THE 596-598DM RANGE IS FORECAST TO REMAIN OVER THE REGION TODAY.
THIS IS THE SAME AIRMASS THAT BROUGHT A HIGH OF 113 TO PHOENIX SKY
HARBOR ON TUESDAY. GIVEN THE FACT WE WILL BE STARTING OUT WARMER
THIS MORNING THAN WHAT WE SAW ON WED MORNING...WITH LOWS REMAINING
IN THE 90S ACROSS THE PHX URBAN CORE...AT FIRST BLUSH IT WOULD
APPEAR THAT WE WILL SEE EVEN WARMER HIGHS TODAY. HOWEVER...BOTH THE
GFS AND EURO ARE SHOWING AN INVERTED TROF ATTEMPTING TO MOVE
NORTHWESTWARD INTO SOUTH-CENTRAL AZ LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT. THE
COMBINATION OF THIS INVERTED TROF ALONG WITH MID-LEVEL MOISTURE
MOVING INTO THE REGION AHEAD OF IT IT EXPECTED TO INCREASE
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY ACROSS SE AZ TODAY...AND LIKELY AT LEAST
INCREASE THE CLOUDINESS ACROSS SOUTH-CENTRAL AZ. ALTHOUGH...AT THIS
POINT...IT APPEARS THAT STRONG SUBSIDENCE ALOFT AND A LACK OF
AVAILABLE MOISTURE BELOW 500MB WILL LIKELY KEEP MOST TS ACTIVITY OUT
OF OUR CWA...THERE IS A DECENT CHANCE OF AT LEAST SOME OUTFLOWS FROM
THESE STORMS WILL MAKE THEIR WAY INTO THE PHX AREA...WHICH COULD
TEMPER THE HEATING A BIT THIS AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...THE CURRENT
THINKING...AND THE LATEST HIGH-RES MODELS INDICATE THAT THESE
OUTFLOWS WILL LIKELY ARRIVE TOO LATE TO IMPACT OUR HIGH
TEMPERATURES...WITH ONLY THE INCREASE IN CLOUDINESS HOLDING OUR
WARMING BACK. THUS...HAVE PRETTY MUCH GONE WITH THE PREVIOUS SHIFT
IN OUR HIGH TEMPERATURES FORECASTS TODAY...STILL EXPECTING A
RECORD-TYING HIGH OF 114F AT SKY HARBOR. DEBRIS CLOUDINESS FROM
TODAY/S STORMS IS EXPECTED...TO ONCE AGAIN KEEP TEMPERATURES
ELEVATED TOMORROW NIGHT ACROSS THE PHX AREA...WITH SOME MORE 90F+
LOWS LIKELY ACROSS THE REGION ON THURSDAY MORNING.

THE FORECAST FOR THURSDAY/S HIGH IS A BIT MORE UNCERTAIN. ALTHOUGH
IT APPEARS THAT THE PASSAGE OF TODAY/S INVERTED TROF WILL WEAKEN THE
UPPER-LEVEL HIGH CENTER A BIT...WITH 500MB HEIGHTS FALLING INTO THE
593-594DM RANGE ACROSS OUR CWA ON THURSDAY AFTERNOON...DRIER AIR
WORKING ITS WAY IN FROM THE EAST WILL LIKELY DECREASE THE CLOUDINESS
ACROSS SOUTH-CENTRAL AZ AS THE MAIN MOISTURE PLUME SHIFTS OFF TO THE
WEST...WHICH WILL ALLOW FOR MORE SOLAR ISOLATION. THUS...EXPECTING
THURSDAY/S HIGHS TO RISE TO WITHIN A DEGREE OR SO OF WEDNESDAY/S
HIGHS...WHICH STILL SATISFY EXCESSIVE HEAT CRITERIA. THIS DRIER AIR
WILL LIKELY REDUCE CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY ACROSS SE AND SOUTH-CENTRAL
ARIZONA...WITH THE MAIN MOISTURE PLUME PERHAPS TRIGGERING AN
ISOLATED STORM OR TWO ACROSS SOUTHWEST AZ AND SOUTHEAST CA. THE MAIN
IMPACTS FROM THE STORMS WILL ONCE AGAIN BE GUSTY WINDS AND BLOWING
DUST RATHER THEN ANY SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL.

FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...
COOLER AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST THIS PERIOD AS THE
UPPER-LEVEL HIGH WEAKENS A BIT MORE AND A MORE SOUTHERLY FLOW ALOFT
BRINGS MORE MOISTURE INTO THE REGION. HIGHER HUMIDITIES ARE
EXPECTED...ALONG WITH A BETTER THREAT FOR AFTERNOON AND EVENING
CONVECTION. HOWEVER...WITH RATHER WARM AIR STILL REMAINING ALOFT
(500MB TEMPS IN THE -4C TO -6C RANGE) AND THE BEST MOISTURE
REMAINING TO OUR SOUTH...EXPECTING ONLY ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
ACROSS THE LOWER DESERTS...WITH WIND/DUST REMAINING THE MAIN ISSUE
RATHER THAN HEAVY RAINFALL.

MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...
BOTH THE GFS AND EURO ARE NOW SUGGESTING THAT THE MAIN 500MB RIDGE
AXIS WILL SHIFT SOUTHWARD OVER AZ AND SE AZ DURING THIS PERIOD AS A
VERY DEEP TROF (FOR MID-JULY) DIGS INTO THE GREAT LAKES
REGION...WHICH WOULD LIKELY SHIFT THE BEST MOISTURE WELL TO OUR
SOUTH INTO SONORA AND STABILIZE THE ATMOSPHERE...WHICH WOULD RESULT
IN ANOTHER BREAK IN THE MONSOON OVER OUR REGION.

&&

.CLIMATE...

RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURE FOR THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK.

CITY        JULY 23       JULY 24      JULY 25
----        -------       -------      -------
PHOENIX   114 IN 2006   114 IN 2006  115 IN 1943
YUMA      115 IN 1959   117 IN 1943  120 IN 1943

&&

.AVIATION...
SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA INCLUDING KPHX...KIWA...AND KSDL...
SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA AND SOUTHWEST ARIZONA INCLUDING KIPL AND KBLH...

ANTICIPATE SLOW INCREASE OF DEBRIS CLOUDS FROM SOUTHEAST ARIZONA AND
SONORA OVERNIGHT TONIGHT AND LINGERING FOR MUCH OF THE DAYTIME
WEDNESDAY...BASES GENERALLY AOA 15 KFT. ANTICIPATE SOUTHWEST AND
WEST WINDS TRANSITION TO SOUTHEAST WINDS BY SUNRISE AND LINGER FOR
MUCH OF THE DAY. ANTICIPATE THUNDERSTORMS TO GET CLOSER TO PHOENIX
AREA AIRFIELDS WEDNESDAY EVENING. CONFIDENCE TOO LOW AT THIS POINT
TO INSERT TEMPO TSRA IN THE TAF/S BUT ANTICIPATE OUTFLOWS FROM
DISTANT STORMS TO BE MORE LIKELY.

AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDED TAFS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY...
STRONG HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN THE PREDOMINANT WEATHER FEATURE
ACROSS THE REGION. BIGGEST IMPACT WILL BE THE HEAT...WITH ABOVE
NORMAL TEMPERATURES LIKELY THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE TREND WILL
BE TOWARDS INCREASING MOISTURE EACH DAY...THOUGH THUNDERSTORMS WILL
MAINLY BE CONCENTRATED IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF EASTERN AZ. ACROSS
THE LOWER DESERTS OF AZ...ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE
POSSIBLE...PARTICULARLY DURING THE WEEKEND...THOUGH THE GREATER
THREAT IS FOR OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES CAPABLE OF PRODUCING STRONG WIND
GUSTS. FURTHER WEST ACROSS SE CA...THE CHANCE FOR RAIN AND
THUNDERSTORM IMPACTS WILL BE EVEN LOWER. MINIMUM HUMIDITIES WILL
GENERALLY FALL INTO A 15-20 PERCENT RANGE WITH GOOD OVERNIGHT
RECOVERY.

&&

.PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

AZ...EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING FROM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY
EVENING AZZ020>023-025>028.

CA...EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING FROM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY
EVENING CAZ031>033.

&&

$$

VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/PHOENIX

DISCUSSION...PERCHA
CLIMATE...PERCHA
AVIATION....AJ
FIRE WEATHER...HIRSCH






000
FXUS65 KPSR 230946 CCA
AFDPSR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PHOENIX AZ
245 AM MST WED JUL 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
VERY STRONG HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE REGION WILL CONTINUE TO PRODUCE
VERY HOT TEMPERATURES THROUGH FRIDAY...WITH SOME LOCATIONS
APPROACHING...OR EVEN REACHING DAILY RECORD HIGHS. AT THE SAME
TIME...MONSOON MOISTURE WILL SLOWLY INCREASE OVER THE AREA...WITH
OCCASIONAL CLOUDINESS AT TIMES. A FURTHER INCREASE IN THE MOISTURE
LEVELS...COMBINED WITH SEVERAL WEAK WEATHER DISTURBANCES FROM
MEXICO...ARE FORECAST TO INCREASE THE CHANCE OF AFTERNOON AND
EVENING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...MAINLY ACROSS ARIZONA...THIS
WEEKEND...WITH A REDUCTION IN THE THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY FORECAST FOR
EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY...
A VERY STRONG DOME OF HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT...WITH 500MB HEIGHTS
REACHING 600DM OVER SOUTHERN CO/NORTHERN NM...AND 500MB HEIGHTS IN
THE 596-598DM RANGE IS FORECAST TO REMAIN OVER THE REGION TODAY.
THIS IS THE SAME AIRMASS THAT BROUGHT A HIGH OF 113 TO PHOENIX SKY
HARBOR ON TUESDAY. GIVEN THE FACT WE WILL BE STARTING OUT WARMER
THIS MORNING THAN WHAT WE SAW ON WED MORNING...WITH LOWS REMAINING
IN THE 90S ACROSS THE PHX URBAN CORE...AT FIRST BLUSH IT WOULD
APPEAR THAT WE WILL SEE EVEN WARMER HIGHS TODAY. HOWEVER...BOTH THE
GFS AND EURO ARE SHOWING AN INVERTED TROF ATTEMPTING TO MOVE
NORTHWESTWARD INTO SOUTH-CENTRAL AZ LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT. THE
COMBINATION OF THIS INVERTED TROF ALONG WITH MID-LEVEL MOISTURE
MOVING INTO THE REGION AHEAD OF IT IT EXPECTED TO INCREASE
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY ACROSS SE AZ TODAY...AND LIKELY AT LEAST
INCREASE THE CLOUDINESS ACROSS SOUTH-CENTRAL AZ. ALTHOUGH...AT THIS
POINT...IT APPEARS THAT STRONG SUBSIDENCE ALOFT AND A LACK OF
AVAILABLE MOISTURE BELOW 500MB WILL LIKELY KEEP MOST TS ACTIVITY OUT
OF OUR CWA...THERE IS A DECENT CHANCE OF AT LEAST SOME OUTFLOWS FROM
THESE STORMS WILL MAKE THEIR WAY INTO THE PHX AREA...WHICH COULD
TEMPER THE HEATING A BIT THIS AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...THE CURRENT
THINKING...AND THE LATEST HIGH-RES MODELS INDICATE THAT THESE
OUTFLOWS WILL LIKELY ARRIVE TOO LATE TO IMPACT OUR HIGH
TEMPERATURES...WITH ONLY THE INCREASE IN CLOUDINESS HOLDING OUR
WARMING BACK. THUS...HAVE PRETTY MUCH GONE WITH THE PREVIOUS SHIFT
IN OUR HIGH TEMPERATURES FORECASTS TODAY...STILL EXPECTING A
RECORD-TYING HIGH OF 114F AT SKY HARBOR. DEBRIS CLOUDINESS FROM
TODAY/S STORMS IS EXPECTED...TO ONCE AGAIN KEEP TEMPERATURES
ELEVATED TOMORROW NIGHT ACROSS THE PHX AREA...WITH SOME MORE 90F+
LOWS LIKELY ACROSS THE REGION ON THURSDAY MORNING.

THE FORECAST FOR THURSDAY/S HIGH IS A BIT MORE UNCERTAIN. ALTHOUGH
IT APPEARS THAT THE PASSAGE OF TODAY/S INVERTED TROF WILL WEAKEN THE
UPPER-LEVEL HIGH CENTER A BIT...WITH 500MB HEIGHTS FALLING INTO THE
593-594DM RANGE ACROSS OUR CWA ON THURSDAY AFTERNOON...DRIER AIR
WORKING ITS WAY IN FROM THE EAST WILL LIKELY DECREASE THE CLOUDINESS
ACROSS SOUTH-CENTRAL AZ AS THE MAIN MOISTURE PLUME SHIFTS OFF TO THE
WEST...WHICH WILL ALLOW FOR MORE SOLAR ISOLATION. THUS...EXPECTING
THURSDAY/S HIGHS TO RISE TO WITHIN A DEGREE OR SO OF WEDNESDAY/S
HIGHS...WHICH STILL SATISFY EXCESSIVE HEAT CRITERIA. THIS DRIER AIR
WILL LIKELY REDUCE CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY ACROSS SE AND SOUTH-CENTRAL
ARIZONA...WITH THE MAIN MOISTURE PLUME PERHAPS TRIGGERING AN
ISOLATED STORM OR TWO ACROSS SOUTHWEST AZ AND SOUTHEAST CA. THE MAIN
IMPACTS FROM THE STORMS WILL ONCE AGAIN BE GUSTY WINDS AND BLOWING
DUST RATHER THEN ANY SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL.

FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...
COOLER AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST THIS PERIOD AS THE
UPPER-LEVEL HIGH WEAKENS A BIT MORE AND A MORE SOUTHERLY FLOW ALOFT
BRINGS MORE MOISTURE INTO THE REGION. HIGHER HUMIDITIES ARE
EXPECTED...ALONG WITH A BETTER THREAT FOR AFTERNOON AND EVENING
CONVECTION. HOWEVER...WITH RATHER WARM AIR STILL REMAINING ALOFT
(500MB TEMPS IN THE -4C TO -6C RANGE) AND THE BEST MOISTURE
REMAINING TO OUR SOUTH...EXPECTING ONLY ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
ACROSS THE LOWER DESERTS...WITH WIND/DUST REMAINING THE MAIN ISSUE
RATHER THAN HEAVY RAINFALL.

MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...
BOTH THE GFS AND EURO ARE NOW SUGGESTING THAT THE MAIN 500MB RIDGE
AXIS WILL SHIFT SOUTHWARD OVER AZ AND SE AZ DURING THIS PERIOD AS A
VERY DEEP TROF (FOR MID-JULY) DIGS INTO THE GREAT LAKES
REGION...WHICH WOULD LIKELY SHIFT THE BEST MOISTURE WELL TO OUR
SOUTH INTO SONORA AND STABILIZE THE ATMOSPHERE...WHICH WOULD RESULT
IN ANOTHER BREAK IN THE MONSOON OVER OUR REGION.

&&

.CLIMATE...

RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURE FOR THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK.

CITY        JULY 23       JULY 24      JULY 25
----        -------       -------      -------
PHOENIX   114 IN 2006   114 IN 2006  115 IN 1943
YUMA      115 IN 1959   117 IN 1943  120 IN 1943

&&

.AVIATION...
SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA INCLUDING KPHX...KIWA...AND KSDL...
SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA AND SOUTHWEST ARIZONA INCLUDING KIPL AND KBLH...

ANTICIPATE SLOW INCREASE OF DEBRIS CLOUDS FROM SOUTHEAST ARIZONA AND
SONORA OVERNIGHT TONIGHT AND LINGERING FOR MUCH OF THE DAYTIME
WEDNESDAY...BASES GENERALLY AOA 15 KFT. ANTICIPATE SOUTHWEST AND
WEST WINDS TRANSITION TO SOUTHEAST WINDS BY SUNRISE AND LINGER FOR
MUCH OF THE DAY. ANTICIPATE THUNDERSTORMS TO GET CLOSER TO PHOENIX
AREA AIRFIELDS WEDNESDAY EVENING. CONFIDENCE TOO LOW AT THIS POINT
TO INSERT TEMPO TSRA IN THE TAF/S BUT ANTICIPATE OUTFLOWS FROM
DISTANT STORMS TO BE MORE LIKELY.

AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDED TAFS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY...
STRONG HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN THE PREDOMINANT WEATHER FEATURE
ACROSS THE REGION. BIGGEST IMPACT WILL BE THE HEAT...WITH ABOVE
NORMAL TEMPERATURES LIKELY THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE TREND WILL
BE TOWARDS INCREASING MOISTURE EACH DAY...THOUGH THUNDERSTORMS WILL
MAINLY BE CONCENTRATED IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF EASTERN AZ. ACROSS
THE LOWER DESERTS OF AZ...ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE
POSSIBLE...PARTICULARLY DURING THE WEEKEND...THOUGH THE GREATER
THREAT IS FOR OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES CAPABLE OF PRODUCING STRONG WIND
GUSTS. FURTHER WEST ACROSS SE CA...THE CHANCE FOR RAIN AND
THUNDERSTORM IMPACTS WILL BE EVEN LOWER. MINIMUM HUMIDITIES WILL
GENERALLY FALL INTO A 15-20 PERCENT RANGE WITH GOOD OVERNIGHT
RECOVERY.

&&

.PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

AZ...EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING FROM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY
EVENING AZZ020>023-025>028.

CA...EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING FROM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY
EVENING CAZ031>033.

&&

$$

VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/PHOENIX

DISCUSSION...PERCHA
CLIMATE...PERCHA
AVIATION....AJ
FIRE WEATHER...HIRSCH






000
FXUS65 KPSR 230946 CCA
AFDPSR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PHOENIX AZ
245 AM MST WED JUL 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
VERY STRONG HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE REGION WILL CONTINUE TO PRODUCE
VERY HOT TEMPERATURES THROUGH FRIDAY...WITH SOME LOCATIONS
APPROACHING...OR EVEN REACHING DAILY RECORD HIGHS. AT THE SAME
TIME...MONSOON MOISTURE WILL SLOWLY INCREASE OVER THE AREA...WITH
OCCASIONAL CLOUDINESS AT TIMES. A FURTHER INCREASE IN THE MOISTURE
LEVELS...COMBINED WITH SEVERAL WEAK WEATHER DISTURBANCES FROM
MEXICO...ARE FORECAST TO INCREASE THE CHANCE OF AFTERNOON AND
EVENING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...MAINLY ACROSS ARIZONA...THIS
WEEKEND...WITH A REDUCTION IN THE THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY FORECAST FOR
EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY...
A VERY STRONG DOME OF HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT...WITH 500MB HEIGHTS
REACHING 600DM OVER SOUTHERN CO/NORTHERN NM...AND 500MB HEIGHTS IN
THE 596-598DM RANGE IS FORECAST TO REMAIN OVER THE REGION TODAY.
THIS IS THE SAME AIRMASS THAT BROUGHT A HIGH OF 113 TO PHOENIX SKY
HARBOR ON TUESDAY. GIVEN THE FACT WE WILL BE STARTING OUT WARMER
THIS MORNING THAN WHAT WE SAW ON WED MORNING...WITH LOWS REMAINING
IN THE 90S ACROSS THE PHX URBAN CORE...AT FIRST BLUSH IT WOULD
APPEAR THAT WE WILL SEE EVEN WARMER HIGHS TODAY. HOWEVER...BOTH THE
GFS AND EURO ARE SHOWING AN INVERTED TROF ATTEMPTING TO MOVE
NORTHWESTWARD INTO SOUTH-CENTRAL AZ LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT. THE
COMBINATION OF THIS INVERTED TROF ALONG WITH MID-LEVEL MOISTURE
MOVING INTO THE REGION AHEAD OF IT IT EXPECTED TO INCREASE
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY ACROSS SE AZ TODAY...AND LIKELY AT LEAST
INCREASE THE CLOUDINESS ACROSS SOUTH-CENTRAL AZ. ALTHOUGH...AT THIS
POINT...IT APPEARS THAT STRONG SUBSIDENCE ALOFT AND A LACK OF
AVAILABLE MOISTURE BELOW 500MB WILL LIKELY KEEP MOST TS ACTIVITY OUT
OF OUR CWA...THERE IS A DECENT CHANCE OF AT LEAST SOME OUTFLOWS FROM
THESE STORMS WILL MAKE THEIR WAY INTO THE PHX AREA...WHICH COULD
TEMPER THE HEATING A BIT THIS AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...THE CURRENT
THINKING...AND THE LATEST HIGH-RES MODELS INDICATE THAT THESE
OUTFLOWS WILL LIKELY ARRIVE TOO LATE TO IMPACT OUR HIGH
TEMPERATURES...WITH ONLY THE INCREASE IN CLOUDINESS HOLDING OUR
WARMING BACK. THUS...HAVE PRETTY MUCH GONE WITH THE PREVIOUS SHIFT
IN OUR HIGH TEMPERATURES FORECASTS TODAY...STILL EXPECTING A
RECORD-TYING HIGH OF 114F AT SKY HARBOR. DEBRIS CLOUDINESS FROM
TODAY/S STORMS IS EXPECTED...TO ONCE AGAIN KEEP TEMPERATURES
ELEVATED TOMORROW NIGHT ACROSS THE PHX AREA...WITH SOME MORE 90F+
LOWS LIKELY ACROSS THE REGION ON THURSDAY MORNING.

THE FORECAST FOR THURSDAY/S HIGH IS A BIT MORE UNCERTAIN. ALTHOUGH
IT APPEARS THAT THE PASSAGE OF TODAY/S INVERTED TROF WILL WEAKEN THE
UPPER-LEVEL HIGH CENTER A BIT...WITH 500MB HEIGHTS FALLING INTO THE
593-594DM RANGE ACROSS OUR CWA ON THURSDAY AFTERNOON...DRIER AIR
WORKING ITS WAY IN FROM THE EAST WILL LIKELY DECREASE THE CLOUDINESS
ACROSS SOUTH-CENTRAL AZ AS THE MAIN MOISTURE PLUME SHIFTS OFF TO THE
WEST...WHICH WILL ALLOW FOR MORE SOLAR ISOLATION. THUS...EXPECTING
THURSDAY/S HIGHS TO RISE TO WITHIN A DEGREE OR SO OF WEDNESDAY/S
HIGHS...WHICH STILL SATISFY EXCESSIVE HEAT CRITERIA. THIS DRIER AIR
WILL LIKELY REDUCE CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY ACROSS SE AND SOUTH-CENTRAL
ARIZONA...WITH THE MAIN MOISTURE PLUME PERHAPS TRIGGERING AN
ISOLATED STORM OR TWO ACROSS SOUTHWEST AZ AND SOUTHEAST CA. THE MAIN
IMPACTS FROM THE STORMS WILL ONCE AGAIN BE GUSTY WINDS AND BLOWING
DUST RATHER THEN ANY SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL.

FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...
COOLER AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST THIS PERIOD AS THE
UPPER-LEVEL HIGH WEAKENS A BIT MORE AND A MORE SOUTHERLY FLOW ALOFT
BRINGS MORE MOISTURE INTO THE REGION. HIGHER HUMIDITIES ARE
EXPECTED...ALONG WITH A BETTER THREAT FOR AFTERNOON AND EVENING
CONVECTION. HOWEVER...WITH RATHER WARM AIR STILL REMAINING ALOFT
(500MB TEMPS IN THE -4C TO -6C RANGE) AND THE BEST MOISTURE
REMAINING TO OUR SOUTH...EXPECTING ONLY ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
ACROSS THE LOWER DESERTS...WITH WIND/DUST REMAINING THE MAIN ISSUE
RATHER THAN HEAVY RAINFALL.

MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...
BOTH THE GFS AND EURO ARE NOW SUGGESTING THAT THE MAIN 500MB RIDGE
AXIS WILL SHIFT SOUTHWARD OVER AZ AND SE AZ DURING THIS PERIOD AS A
VERY DEEP TROF (FOR MID-JULY) DIGS INTO THE GREAT LAKES
REGION...WHICH WOULD LIKELY SHIFT THE BEST MOISTURE WELL TO OUR
SOUTH INTO SONORA AND STABILIZE THE ATMOSPHERE...WHICH WOULD RESULT
IN ANOTHER BREAK IN THE MONSOON OVER OUR REGION.

&&

.CLIMATE...

RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURE FOR THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK.

CITY        JULY 23       JULY 24      JULY 25
----        -------       -------      -------
PHOENIX   114 IN 2006   114 IN 2006  115 IN 1943
YUMA      115 IN 1959   117 IN 1943  120 IN 1943

&&

.AVIATION...
SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA INCLUDING KPHX...KIWA...AND KSDL...
SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA AND SOUTHWEST ARIZONA INCLUDING KIPL AND KBLH...

ANTICIPATE SLOW INCREASE OF DEBRIS CLOUDS FROM SOUTHEAST ARIZONA AND
SONORA OVERNIGHT TONIGHT AND LINGERING FOR MUCH OF THE DAYTIME
WEDNESDAY...BASES GENERALLY AOA 15 KFT. ANTICIPATE SOUTHWEST AND
WEST WINDS TRANSITION TO SOUTHEAST WINDS BY SUNRISE AND LINGER FOR
MUCH OF THE DAY. ANTICIPATE THUNDERSTORMS TO GET CLOSER TO PHOENIX
AREA AIRFIELDS WEDNESDAY EVENING. CONFIDENCE TOO LOW AT THIS POINT
TO INSERT TEMPO TSRA IN THE TAF/S BUT ANTICIPATE OUTFLOWS FROM
DISTANT STORMS TO BE MORE LIKELY.

AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDED TAFS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY...
STRONG HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN THE PREDOMINANT WEATHER FEATURE
ACROSS THE REGION. BIGGEST IMPACT WILL BE THE HEAT...WITH ABOVE
NORMAL TEMPERATURES LIKELY THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE TREND WILL
BE TOWARDS INCREASING MOISTURE EACH DAY...THOUGH THUNDERSTORMS WILL
MAINLY BE CONCENTRATED IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF EASTERN AZ. ACROSS
THE LOWER DESERTS OF AZ...ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE
POSSIBLE...PARTICULARLY DURING THE WEEKEND...THOUGH THE GREATER
THREAT IS FOR OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES CAPABLE OF PRODUCING STRONG WIND
GUSTS. FURTHER WEST ACROSS SE CA...THE CHANCE FOR RAIN AND
THUNDERSTORM IMPACTS WILL BE EVEN LOWER. MINIMUM HUMIDITIES WILL
GENERALLY FALL INTO A 15-20 PERCENT RANGE WITH GOOD OVERNIGHT
RECOVERY.

&&

.PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

AZ...EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING FROM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY
EVENING AZZ020>023-025>028.

CA...EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING FROM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY
EVENING CAZ031>033.

&&

$$

VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/PHOENIX

DISCUSSION...PERCHA
CLIMATE...PERCHA
AVIATION....AJ
FIRE WEATHER...HIRSCH






000
FXUS65 KPSR 230943
AFDPSR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PHOENIX AZ
245 AM MST WED JUL 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
VERY STRONG HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE REGION WILL CONTINUE TO PRODUCE
VERY HOT TEMPERATURES THROUGH FRIDAY...WITH SOME LOCATIONS
APPROACHING...OR EVEN REACHING DAILY RECORD HIGHS. AT THE SAME
TIME...MONSOON MOISTURE WILL SLOWLY INCREASE OVER THE AREA...WITH
OCCASIONAL CLOUDINESS AT TIMES. A FURTHER INCREASE IN THE MOISTURE
LEVELS...COMBINED WITH SEVERAL WEAK WEATHER DISTURBANCES FROM
MEXICO...ARE FORECAST TO INCREASE THE CHANCE OF AFTERNOON AND
EVENING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...MAINLY ACROSS ARIZONA...THIS
WEEKEND...WITH A REDUCTION IN THE THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY FORECAST FOR
EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY...
A VERY STRONG DOME OF HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT...WITH 500MB HEIGHTS
REACHING 600DM OVER SOUTHERN CO/NORTHERN NM...AND 500MB HEIGHTS IN
THE 596-598DM RANGE IS FORECAST TO REMAIN OVER THE REGION TODAY.
THIS IS THE SAME AIRMASS THAT BROUGHT A HIGH OF 113 TO PHOENIX SKY
HARBOR ON TUESDAY. GIVEN THE FACT WE WILL BE STARTING OUT WARMER
THIS MORNING THAN WHAT WE SAW ON WED MORNING...WITH LOWS REMAINING
IN THE 90S ACROSS THE PHX URBAN CORE...AT FIRST BLUSH IT WOULD
APPEAR THAT WE WILL SEE EVEN WARMER HIGHS TODAY. HOWEVER...BOTH THE
GFS AND EURO ARE SHOWING AN INVERTED TROF ATTEMPTING TO MOVE
NORTHWESTWARD INTO SOUTH-CENTRAL AZ LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT. THE
COMBINATION OF THIS INVERTED TROF ALONG WITH MID-LEVEL MOISTURE
MOVING INTO THE REGION AHEAD OF IT IT EXPECTED TO INCREASE
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY ACROSS SE AZ TODAY...AND LIKELY AT LEAST
INCREASE THE CLOUDINESS ACROSS SOUTH-CENTRAL AZ. ALTHOUGH...AT THIS
POINT...IT APPEARS THAT STRONG SUBSIDENCE ALOFT AND A LACK OF
AVAILABLE MOISTURE BELOW 500MB WILL LIKELY KEEP MOST TS ACTIVITY OUT
OF OUR CWA...THERE IS A DECENT CHANCE OF AT LEAST SOME OUTFLOWS FROM
THESE STORMS WILL MAKE THEIR WAY INTO THE PHX AREA...WHICH COULD
TEMPER THE HEATING A BIT THIS AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...THE CURRENT
THINKING...AND THE LATEST HIGH-RES MODELS INDICATE THAT THESE
OUTFLOWS WILL LIKELY ARRIVE TOO LATE TO IMPACT OUR HIGH
TEMPERATURES...WITH ONLY THE INCREASE IN CLOUDINESS HOLDING OUR
WARMING BACK. THUS...HAVE PRETTY MUCH GONE WITH THE PREVIOUS SHIFT
IN OUR HIGH TEMPERATURES FORECASTS TODAY...STILL EXPECTING A
RECORD-TYING HIGH OF 114F AT SKY HARBOR. DEBRIS CLOUDINESS FROM
TODAY/S STORMS IS EXPECTED...TO ONCE AGAIN KEEP TEMPERATURES
ELEVATED TOMORROW NIGHT ACROSS THE PHX AREA...WITH SOME MORE 90F+
LOWS LIKELY ACROSS THE REGION ON THURSDAY MORNING.

THE FORECAST FOR THURSDAY/S HIGH IS A BIT MORE UNCERTAIN. ALTHOUGH
IT APPEARS THAT THE PASSAGE OF TODAY/S INVERTED TROF WILL WEAKEN THE
UPPER-LEVEL HIGH CENTER A BIT...WITH 500MB HEIGHTS FALLING INTO THE
593-594DM RANGE ACROSS OUR CWA ON THURSDAY AFTERNOON...DRIER AIR
WORKING ITS WAY IN FROM THE EAST WILL LIKELY DECREASE THE CLOUDINESS
ACROSS SOUTH-CENTRAL AZ AS THE MAIN MOISTURE PLUME SHIFTS OFF TO THE
WEST...WHICH WILL ALLOW FOR MORE SOLAR ISOLATION. THUS..EXPECTING
THURSDAY/S HIGHS TO RISE TO WITHIN A DEGREE OR SO OF WEDNESDAY/S
HIGHS...WHICH STILL SATISFY EXCESSIVE HEAT CRITERIA. THIS DRIER AIR
WILL LIKELY REDUCE CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY ACROSS SE AND SOUTH-CENTRAL
ARIZONA...WITH THE MAIN MOISTURE PLUME PERHAPS TRIGGERING AN
ISOLATED STORM OR TWO ACROSS SOUTHWEST AZ AND SOUTHEAST CA. THE MAIN
IMPACTS FROM THE STORMS WILL ONCE AGAIN BE GUSTY WINDS AND BLOWING
DUST RATHER THEN ANY SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL.

FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...
COOLER AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST THIS PERIOD AS THE
UPPER-LEVEL HIGH WEAKENS A BIT MORE AND A MORE SOUTHERLY FLOW ALOFT
BRINGS MORE MOISTURE INTO THE REGION. HIGHER HUMIDITIES ARE
EXPECTED...ALONG WITH A BETTER THREAT FOR AFTERNOON AND EVENING
CONVECTION. HOWEVER...WITH RATHER WARM AIR STILL REMAINING ALOFT
(500MB TEMPS IN THE -4C TO -6C RANGE) AND THE BEST MOISTURE
REMAINING TO OUR SOUTH...EXPECTING ONLY ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
ACROSS THE LOWER DESERTS...WITH WIND/DUST REMAINING THE MAIN ISSUE
RATHER THAN HEAVY RAINFALL.

MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...
BOTH THE GFS AND EURO ARE NOW SUGGESTING THAT THE MAIN 500MB RIDGE
AXIS WILL SHIFT SOUTHWARD OVER AZ AND SE AZ DURING THIS PERIOD AS A
VERY DEEP TROF (FOR MID-JULY) DIGS INTO THE GREAT LAKES
REGION...WHICH WOULD LIKELY SHIFT THE BEST MOISTURE WELL TO OUR
SOUTH INTO SONORA AND STABILIZE THE ATMOSPHERE...WHICH WOULD RESULT
IN ANOTHER BREAK IN THE MONSOON OVER OUR REGION.

&&

.CLIMATE...

RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURE FOR THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK.

CITY        JULY 23       JULY 24      JULY 25
----        -------       -------      -------
PHOENIX   114 IN 2006   114 IN 2006  115 IN 1943
YUMA      115 IN 1959   117 IN 1943  120 IN 1943

&&

.AVIATION...
SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA INCLUDING KPHX...KIWA...AND KSDL...
SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA AND SOUTHWEST ARIZONA INCLUDING KIPL AND KBLH...

ANTICIPATE SLOW INCREASE OF DEBRIS CLOUDS FROM SOUTHEAST ARIZONA AND
SONORA OVERNIGHT TONIGHT AND LINGERING FOR MUCH OF THE DAYTIME
WEDNESDAY...BASES GENERALLY AOA 15 KFT. ANTICIPATE SOUTHWEST AND
WEST WINDS TRANSITION TO SOUTHEAST WINDS BY SUNRISE AND LINGER FOR
MUCH OF THE DAY. ANTICIPATE THUNDERSTORMS TO GET CLOSER TO PHOENIX
AREA AIRFIELDS WEDNESDAY EVENING. CONFIDENCE TOO LOW AT THIS POINT
TO INSERT TEMPO TSRA IN THE TAF/S BUT ANTICIPATE OUTFLOWS FROM
DISTANT STORMS TO BE MORE LIKELY.

AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDED TAFS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY...
STRONG HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN THE PREDOMINANT WEATHER FEATURE
ACROSS THE REGION. BIGGEST IMPACT WILL BE THE HEAT...WITH ABOVE
NORMAL TEMPERATURES LIKELY THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE TREND WILL
BE TOWARDS INCREASING MOISTURE EACH DAY...THOUGH THUNDERSTORMS WILL
MAINLY BE CONCENTRATED IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF EASTERN AZ. ACROSS
THE LOWER DESERTS OF AZ...ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE
POSSIBLE...PARTICULARLY DURING THE WEEKEND...THOUGH THE GREATER
THREAT IS FOR OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES CAPABLE OF PRODUCING STRONG WIND
GUSTS. FURTHER WEST ACROSS SE CA...THE CHANCE FOR RAIN AND
THUNDERSTORM IMPACTS WILL BE EVEN LOWER. MINIMUM HUMIDITIES WILL
GENERALLY FALL INTO A 15-20 PERCENT RANGE WITH GOOD OVERNIGHT
RECOVERY.

&&

.PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

AZ...EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING FROM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY
EVENING AZZ020>023-025>028.

CA...EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING FROM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY
EVENING CAZ031>033.

&&

$$

VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/PHOENIX

DISCUSSION...PERCHA
CLIMATE...PERCHA
AVIATION....AJ
FIRE WEATHER...HIRSCH






000
FXUS65 KPSR 230943
AFDPSR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PHOENIX AZ
245 AM MST WED JUL 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
VERY STRONG HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE REGION WILL CONTINUE TO PRODUCE
VERY HOT TEMPERATURES THROUGH FRIDAY...WITH SOME LOCATIONS
APPROACHING...OR EVEN REACHING DAILY RECORD HIGHS. AT THE SAME
TIME...MONSOON MOISTURE WILL SLOWLY INCREASE OVER THE AREA...WITH
OCCASIONAL CLOUDINESS AT TIMES. A FURTHER INCREASE IN THE MOISTURE
LEVELS...COMBINED WITH SEVERAL WEAK WEATHER DISTURBANCES FROM
MEXICO...ARE FORECAST TO INCREASE THE CHANCE OF AFTERNOON AND
EVENING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...MAINLY ACROSS ARIZONA...THIS
WEEKEND...WITH A REDUCTION IN THE THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY FORECAST FOR
EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY...
A VERY STRONG DOME OF HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT...WITH 500MB HEIGHTS
REACHING 600DM OVER SOUTHERN CO/NORTHERN NM...AND 500MB HEIGHTS IN
THE 596-598DM RANGE IS FORECAST TO REMAIN OVER THE REGION TODAY.
THIS IS THE SAME AIRMASS THAT BROUGHT A HIGH OF 113 TO PHOENIX SKY
HARBOR ON TUESDAY. GIVEN THE FACT WE WILL BE STARTING OUT WARMER
THIS MORNING THAN WHAT WE SAW ON WED MORNING...WITH LOWS REMAINING
IN THE 90S ACROSS THE PHX URBAN CORE...AT FIRST BLUSH IT WOULD
APPEAR THAT WE WILL SEE EVEN WARMER HIGHS TODAY. HOWEVER...BOTH THE
GFS AND EURO ARE SHOWING AN INVERTED TROF ATTEMPTING TO MOVE
NORTHWESTWARD INTO SOUTH-CENTRAL AZ LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT. THE
COMBINATION OF THIS INVERTED TROF ALONG WITH MID-LEVEL MOISTURE
MOVING INTO THE REGION AHEAD OF IT IT EXPECTED TO INCREASE
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY ACROSS SE AZ TODAY...AND LIKELY AT LEAST
INCREASE THE CLOUDINESS ACROSS SOUTH-CENTRAL AZ. ALTHOUGH...AT THIS
POINT...IT APPEARS THAT STRONG SUBSIDENCE ALOFT AND A LACK OF
AVAILABLE MOISTURE BELOW 500MB WILL LIKELY KEEP MOST TS ACTIVITY OUT
OF OUR CWA...THERE IS A DECENT CHANCE OF AT LEAST SOME OUTFLOWS FROM
THESE STORMS WILL MAKE THEIR WAY INTO THE PHX AREA...WHICH COULD
TEMPER THE HEATING A BIT THIS AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...THE CURRENT
THINKING...AND THE LATEST HIGH-RES MODELS INDICATE THAT THESE
OUTFLOWS WILL LIKELY ARRIVE TOO LATE TO IMPACT OUR HIGH
TEMPERATURES...WITH ONLY THE INCREASE IN CLOUDINESS HOLDING OUR
WARMING BACK. THUS...HAVE PRETTY MUCH GONE WITH THE PREVIOUS SHIFT
IN OUR HIGH TEMPERATURES FORECASTS TODAY...STILL EXPECTING A
RECORD-TYING HIGH OF 114F AT SKY HARBOR. DEBRIS CLOUDINESS FROM
TODAY/S STORMS IS EXPECTED...TO ONCE AGAIN KEEP TEMPERATURES
ELEVATED TOMORROW NIGHT ACROSS THE PHX AREA...WITH SOME MORE 90F+
LOWS LIKELY ACROSS THE REGION ON THURSDAY MORNING.

THE FORECAST FOR THURSDAY/S HIGH IS A BIT MORE UNCERTAIN. ALTHOUGH
IT APPEARS THAT THE PASSAGE OF TODAY/S INVERTED TROF WILL WEAKEN THE
UPPER-LEVEL HIGH CENTER A BIT...WITH 500MB HEIGHTS FALLING INTO THE
593-594DM RANGE ACROSS OUR CWA ON THURSDAY AFTERNOON...DRIER AIR
WORKING ITS WAY IN FROM THE EAST WILL LIKELY DECREASE THE CLOUDINESS
ACROSS SOUTH-CENTRAL AZ AS THE MAIN MOISTURE PLUME SHIFTS OFF TO THE
WEST...WHICH WILL ALLOW FOR MORE SOLAR ISOLATION. THUS..EXPECTING
THURSDAY/S HIGHS TO RISE TO WITHIN A DEGREE OR SO OF WEDNESDAY/S
HIGHS...WHICH STILL SATISFY EXCESSIVE HEAT CRITERIA. THIS DRIER AIR
WILL LIKELY REDUCE CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY ACROSS SE AND SOUTH-CENTRAL
ARIZONA...WITH THE MAIN MOISTURE PLUME PERHAPS TRIGGERING AN
ISOLATED STORM OR TWO ACROSS SOUTHWEST AZ AND SOUTHEAST CA. THE MAIN
IMPACTS FROM THE STORMS WILL ONCE AGAIN BE GUSTY WINDS AND BLOWING
DUST RATHER THEN ANY SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL.

FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...
COOLER AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST THIS PERIOD AS THE
UPPER-LEVEL HIGH WEAKENS A BIT MORE AND A MORE SOUTHERLY FLOW ALOFT
BRINGS MORE MOISTURE INTO THE REGION. HIGHER HUMIDITIES ARE
EXPECTED...ALONG WITH A BETTER THREAT FOR AFTERNOON AND EVENING
CONVECTION. HOWEVER...WITH RATHER WARM AIR STILL REMAINING ALOFT
(500MB TEMPS IN THE -4C TO -6C RANGE) AND THE BEST MOISTURE
REMAINING TO OUR SOUTH...EXPECTING ONLY ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
ACROSS THE LOWER DESERTS...WITH WIND/DUST REMAINING THE MAIN ISSUE
RATHER THAN HEAVY RAINFALL.

MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...
BOTH THE GFS AND EURO ARE NOW SUGGESTING THAT THE MAIN 500MB RIDGE
AXIS WILL SHIFT SOUTHWARD OVER AZ AND SE AZ DURING THIS PERIOD AS A
VERY DEEP TROF (FOR MID-JULY) DIGS INTO THE GREAT LAKES
REGION...WHICH WOULD LIKELY SHIFT THE BEST MOISTURE WELL TO OUR
SOUTH INTO SONORA AND STABILIZE THE ATMOSPHERE...WHICH WOULD RESULT
IN ANOTHER BREAK IN THE MONSOON OVER OUR REGION.

&&

.CLIMATE...

RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURE FOR THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK.

CITY        JULY 23       JULY 24      JULY 25
----        -------       -------      -------
PHOENIX   114 IN 2006   114 IN 2006  115 IN 1943
YUMA      115 IN 1959   117 IN 1943  120 IN 1943

&&

.AVIATION...
SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA INCLUDING KPHX...KIWA...AND KSDL...
SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA AND SOUTHWEST ARIZONA INCLUDING KIPL AND KBLH...

ANTICIPATE SLOW INCREASE OF DEBRIS CLOUDS FROM SOUTHEAST ARIZONA AND
SONORA OVERNIGHT TONIGHT AND LINGERING FOR MUCH OF THE DAYTIME
WEDNESDAY...BASES GENERALLY AOA 15 KFT. ANTICIPATE SOUTHWEST AND
WEST WINDS TRANSITION TO SOUTHEAST WINDS BY SUNRISE AND LINGER FOR
MUCH OF THE DAY. ANTICIPATE THUNDERSTORMS TO GET CLOSER TO PHOENIX
AREA AIRFIELDS WEDNESDAY EVENING. CONFIDENCE TOO LOW AT THIS POINT
TO INSERT TEMPO TSRA IN THE TAF/S BUT ANTICIPATE OUTFLOWS FROM
DISTANT STORMS TO BE MORE LIKELY.

AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDED TAFS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY...
STRONG HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN THE PREDOMINANT WEATHER FEATURE
ACROSS THE REGION. BIGGEST IMPACT WILL BE THE HEAT...WITH ABOVE
NORMAL TEMPERATURES LIKELY THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE TREND WILL
BE TOWARDS INCREASING MOISTURE EACH DAY...THOUGH THUNDERSTORMS WILL
MAINLY BE CONCENTRATED IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF EASTERN AZ. ACROSS
THE LOWER DESERTS OF AZ...ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE
POSSIBLE...PARTICULARLY DURING THE WEEKEND...THOUGH THE GREATER
THREAT IS FOR OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES CAPABLE OF PRODUCING STRONG WIND
GUSTS. FURTHER WEST ACROSS SE CA...THE CHANCE FOR RAIN AND
THUNDERSTORM IMPACTS WILL BE EVEN LOWER. MINIMUM HUMIDITIES WILL
GENERALLY FALL INTO A 15-20 PERCENT RANGE WITH GOOD OVERNIGHT
RECOVERY.

&&

.PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

AZ...EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING FROM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY
EVENING AZZ020>023-025>028.

CA...EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING FROM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY
EVENING CAZ031>033.

&&

$$

VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/PHOENIX

DISCUSSION...PERCHA
CLIMATE...PERCHA
AVIATION....AJ
FIRE WEATHER...HIRSCH





000
FXUS65 KPSR 230508
AFDPSR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PHOENIX AZ
1010 PM MST TUE JUL 22 2014


.SYNOPSIS...
A STRONG HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP OVER THE REGION
THIS WEEK...RESULTING IN VERY HOT TEMPERATURES WEDNESDAY THROUGH
FRIDAY. AT SAME TIME...MONSOON MOISTURE WILL SLOWLY INCREASE OVER
THE AREA...WITH OCCASIONAL CLOUDINESS AT TIMES. INCREASED
MOISTURE...COMBINED WITH SEVERAL WEAK WEATHER DISTURBANCES FROM
MEXICO...ARE FORECAST TO INCREASE THE CHANCE OF AFTERNOON AND
EVENING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...MAINLY ACROSS ARIZONA...THIS
WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
STORM ACTIVITY LIMITED TO SOUTHEAST ARIZONA THIS EVENING AND
TRENDING DOWNWARD AS OF THIS WRITING. MORE ACTIVITY FURTHER
SOUTHEAST OVER SONORA AND CHIHUAHUA BUT NOTHING EXTRAORDINARY.
ANTICIPATE THE DEBRIS CLOUDINESS TO DRIFT NORTH AND NORTHWESTWARD
OVERNIGHT AND INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING. IT MAY BE A BIT THICKER THAN
WHAT WE HAD TODAY BUT WE WILL BE STARTING OFF WARMER AND THE NET
EFFECT OVER SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA WILL BE LITTLE CHANGE. WILL NUDGE
UP PHOENIX AREA MAX TEMP FOR WEDNESDAY LEADING TO A RECORD TYING
114. THIS COULD WIND UP BEING THE WRONG DIRECTION IF CLOUDS GET
THICK ENOUGH AND LINGER. WOULD STILL EXPECT AT LEAST 110 IN A
/COOLER/ SCENARIO. FURTHER WEST OVER SOUTHWEST ARIZONA AND SOUTHEAST
CALIFORNIA...SKIES WILL BE CLEAR AND SO ANOTHER FEW DEGREES OF
WARMING IS ON TRACK. 00Z NAM AND GFS INDICATE SOMETHING OF AN
INVERTED TROUGH MOVING ACROSS FAR NORTHWEST MEXICO AND SOUTHERN
ARIZONA WEDNESDAY THOUGH THIS FEATURE IS NOT DISTINCTLY OBVIOUS IN
THE SATELLITE IMAGERY. OF MORE IMPORTANCE...THEY BOTH DEPICT DEEPER
MOISTURE PUSHING FURTHER WEST AND IN TURN DEVELOP A BROADER AREA OF
CONVECTION FOR WEDNESDAY. NAM IS MORE AGGRESSIVE THAN GFS...A SWITCH
FROM 18Z RUNS. THUS GFS DOES WOULD SUGGEST STORMS OVER THE HIGHER
TERRAIN STRUGGLING TO SURVIVE ON THE LOW DESERTS BUT YIELDING
SIGNIFICANT OUTFLOWS. DEPENDING UPON WEDNESDAY CONVECTION THURSDAY
COULD ACTUALLY BE WARMER. BOTH NAM AND GFS ARE DRIER FOR SOUTHEAST
ARIZONA THURSDAY.

&&

.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION ISSUED 300 PM...
TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...
A STRONG WARM-UP WAS UNDERWAY ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA...INCLUDING
THE SOUTH CENTRAL AZ DESERTS WHERE VARIABLE CLOUDS HAD DEVELOPED
EARLIER IN THE DAY...AND AN EARLY 109 DEG F TEMP IN PHOENIX AT 1245
PM (WHICH WAS OUR FORECAST HIGH FOR THE DAY).

EARLIER CONCERNS...SINCE AN EXCESSIVE HEAT WATCH WAS POSTED FOR ALL
THE DESERTS BETWEEN SOUTHEAST CA TO SOUTH CENTRAL AZ...WAS HOW MUCH
INSOLATION WOULD BE REDUCED...FROM THE CLOUDS/HUMIDITY...CAUSING A
REDUCTION IN THE POTENTIAL SURFACE HEATING. OBVIOUSLY TODAY THE
CLOUDS MADE LITTLE DIFFERENCE IN THE STRONG EARLY DAY WARM-UP.
THEREFORE SINCE THERE IS NO MAJOR MOISTURE SURGE FORECAST TONIGHT
AND WEDNESDAY...WE DECIDED TO UPGRADE THE EXCESSIVE HEAT WATCH TO A
WARNING FOR ALL THE LOWER DESERTS BETWEEN IMPERIAL CALIFORNIA AND
PHOENIX ARIZONA.

VARIABLE CLOUDS AND EVEN A FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAY BE IN
THE OFFING OVER THE MOUNTAINS EAST OF PHOENIX ON WED...WITH PERHAPS
A LATE DAY CONVECTIVE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY DESCENDING ONTO THE DESERTS
WITH POSSIBLE BLOWING DUST.

ON THURSDAY...A DRIER AIRMASS MOVES INTO THE REGION FROM THE EAST.
500 MB TEMPERATURES WARM TO AN UNSEASONABLE MINUS 4 DEG C INDICATING
STABILITY AND A REDUCED THREAT FOR MOUNTAIN AFTERNOON CONVECTION.
PRECIP PROBABILITIES WERE ALSO LOWERED IN THE MOUNTAINS EAST OF
PHOENIX.

FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...
COOLER AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST THIS PERIOD AS HIGHER
HUMIDITIES ARE EXPECTED...ALONG WITH A BETTER THREAT FOR AFTERNOON
AND EVENING CONVECTION.

&&

.CLIMATE...

RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURE FOR THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK.

CITY        JULY 22       JULY 23      JULY 24
----        -------       -------      -------
PHOENIX   116 IN 2006   114 IN 2006  114 IN 2006
YUMA      116 IN 2006   115 IN 1959  117 IN 1943

&&

.AVIATION...
SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA INCLUDING KPHX...KIWA...AND KSDL...
SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA AND SOUTHWEST ARIZONA INCLUDING KIPL AND KBLH...

ANTICIPATE SLOW INCREASE OF DEBRIS CLOUDS FROM SOUTHEAST ARIZONA AND
SONORA OVERNIGHT TONIGHT AND LINGERING FOR MUCH OF THE DAYTIME
WEDNESDAY...BASES GENERALLY AOA 15 KFT. ANTICIPATE SOUTHWEST AND
WEST WINDS TRANSITION TO SOUTHEAST WINDS BY SUNRISE AND LINGER FOR
MUCH OF THE DAY. ANTICIPATE THUNDERSTORMS TO GET CLOSER TO PHOENIX
AREA AIRFIELDS WEDNESDAY EVENING. CONFIDENCE TOO LOW AT THIS POINT
TO INSERT TEMPO TSRA IN THE TAF/S BUT ANTICIPATE OUTFLOWS FROM
DISTANT STORMS TO BE MORE LIKELY.

AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDED TAFS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY...
STRONG HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN THE PREDOMINANT WEATHER FEATURE
ACROSS THE REGION. BIGGEST IMPACT WILL BE THE HEAT...WITH ABOVE
NORMAL TEMPERATURES LIKELY THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE TREND WILL
BE TOWARDS INCREASING MOISTURE EACH DAY...THOUGH THUNDERSTORMS WILL
MAINLY BE CONCENTRATED IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF EASTERN AZ. ACROSS
THE LOWER DESERTS OF AZ...ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE
POSSIBLE...PARTICULARLY DURING THE WEEKEND...THOUGH THE GREATER
THREAT IS FOR OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES CAPABLE OF PRODUCING STRONG WIND
GUSTS. FURTHER WEST ACROSS SE CA...THE CHANCE FOR RAIN AND
THUNDERSTORM IMPACTS WILL BE EVEN LOWER. MINIMUM HUMIDITIES WILL
GENERALLY FALL INTO A 15-20 PERCENT RANGE WITH GOOD OVERNIGHT
RECOVERY.

&&

.PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

AZ...EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING FROM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY
EVENING AZZ020>023-025>028.

CA...EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING FROM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY
EVENING CAZ031>033.

&&

$$

VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/PHOENIX

DISCUSSION...AJ
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...VASQUEZ
CLIMATE...MO
AVIATION....AJ
FIRE WEATHER...HIRSCH






000
FXUS65 KPSR 230508
AFDPSR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PHOENIX AZ
1010 PM MST TUE JUL 22 2014


.SYNOPSIS...
A STRONG HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP OVER THE REGION
THIS WEEK...RESULTING IN VERY HOT TEMPERATURES WEDNESDAY THROUGH
FRIDAY. AT SAME TIME...MONSOON MOISTURE WILL SLOWLY INCREASE OVER
THE AREA...WITH OCCASIONAL CLOUDINESS AT TIMES. INCREASED
MOISTURE...COMBINED WITH SEVERAL WEAK WEATHER DISTURBANCES FROM
MEXICO...ARE FORECAST TO INCREASE THE CHANCE OF AFTERNOON AND
EVENING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...MAINLY ACROSS ARIZONA...THIS
WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
STORM ACTIVITY LIMITED TO SOUTHEAST ARIZONA THIS EVENING AND
TRENDING DOWNWARD AS OF THIS WRITING. MORE ACTIVITY FURTHER
SOUTHEAST OVER SONORA AND CHIHUAHUA BUT NOTHING EXTRAORDINARY.
ANTICIPATE THE DEBRIS CLOUDINESS TO DRIFT NORTH AND NORTHWESTWARD
OVERNIGHT AND INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING. IT MAY BE A BIT THICKER THAN
WHAT WE HAD TODAY BUT WE WILL BE STARTING OFF WARMER AND THE NET
EFFECT OVER SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA WILL BE LITTLE CHANGE. WILL NUDGE
UP PHOENIX AREA MAX TEMP FOR WEDNESDAY LEADING TO A RECORD TYING
114. THIS COULD WIND UP BEING THE WRONG DIRECTION IF CLOUDS GET
THICK ENOUGH AND LINGER. WOULD STILL EXPECT AT LEAST 110 IN A
/COOLER/ SCENARIO. FURTHER WEST OVER SOUTHWEST ARIZONA AND SOUTHEAST
CALIFORNIA...SKIES WILL BE CLEAR AND SO ANOTHER FEW DEGREES OF
WARMING IS ON TRACK. 00Z NAM AND GFS INDICATE SOMETHING OF AN
INVERTED TROUGH MOVING ACROSS FAR NORTHWEST MEXICO AND SOUTHERN
ARIZONA WEDNESDAY THOUGH THIS FEATURE IS NOT DISTINCTLY OBVIOUS IN
THE SATELLITE IMAGERY. OF MORE IMPORTANCE...THEY BOTH DEPICT DEEPER
MOISTURE PUSHING FURTHER WEST AND IN TURN DEVELOP A BROADER AREA OF
CONVECTION FOR WEDNESDAY. NAM IS MORE AGGRESSIVE THAN GFS...A SWITCH
FROM 18Z RUNS. THUS GFS DOES WOULD SUGGEST STORMS OVER THE HIGHER
TERRAIN STRUGGLING TO SURVIVE ON THE LOW DESERTS BUT YIELDING
SIGNIFICANT OUTFLOWS. DEPENDING UPON WEDNESDAY CONVECTION THURSDAY
COULD ACTUALLY BE WARMER. BOTH NAM AND GFS ARE DRIER FOR SOUTHEAST
ARIZONA THURSDAY.

&&

.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION ISSUED 300 PM...
TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...
A STRONG WARM-UP WAS UNDERWAY ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA...INCLUDING
THE SOUTH CENTRAL AZ DESERTS WHERE VARIABLE CLOUDS HAD DEVELOPED
EARLIER IN THE DAY...AND AN EARLY 109 DEG F TEMP IN PHOENIX AT 1245
PM (WHICH WAS OUR FORECAST HIGH FOR THE DAY).

EARLIER CONCERNS...SINCE AN EXCESSIVE HEAT WATCH WAS POSTED FOR ALL
THE DESERTS BETWEEN SOUTHEAST CA TO SOUTH CENTRAL AZ...WAS HOW MUCH
INSOLATION WOULD BE REDUCED...FROM THE CLOUDS/HUMIDITY...CAUSING A
REDUCTION IN THE POTENTIAL SURFACE HEATING. OBVIOUSLY TODAY THE
CLOUDS MADE LITTLE DIFFERENCE IN THE STRONG EARLY DAY WARM-UP.
THEREFORE SINCE THERE IS NO MAJOR MOISTURE SURGE FORECAST TONIGHT
AND WEDNESDAY...WE DECIDED TO UPGRADE THE EXCESSIVE HEAT WATCH TO A
WARNING FOR ALL THE LOWER DESERTS BETWEEN IMPERIAL CALIFORNIA AND
PHOENIX ARIZONA.

VARIABLE CLOUDS AND EVEN A FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAY BE IN
THE OFFING OVER THE MOUNTAINS EAST OF PHOENIX ON WED...WITH PERHAPS
A LATE DAY CONVECTIVE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY DESCENDING ONTO THE DESERTS
WITH POSSIBLE BLOWING DUST.

ON THURSDAY...A DRIER AIRMASS MOVES INTO THE REGION FROM THE EAST.
500 MB TEMPERATURES WARM TO AN UNSEASONABLE MINUS 4 DEG C INDICATING
STABILITY AND A REDUCED THREAT FOR MOUNTAIN AFTERNOON CONVECTION.
PRECIP PROBABILITIES WERE ALSO LOWERED IN THE MOUNTAINS EAST OF
PHOENIX.

FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...
COOLER AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST THIS PERIOD AS HIGHER
HUMIDITIES ARE EXPECTED...ALONG WITH A BETTER THREAT FOR AFTERNOON
AND EVENING CONVECTION.

&&

.CLIMATE...

RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURE FOR THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK.

CITY        JULY 22       JULY 23      JULY 24
----        -------       -------      -------
PHOENIX   116 IN 2006   114 IN 2006  114 IN 2006
YUMA      116 IN 2006   115 IN 1959  117 IN 1943

&&

.AVIATION...
SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA INCLUDING KPHX...KIWA...AND KSDL...
SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA AND SOUTHWEST ARIZONA INCLUDING KIPL AND KBLH...

ANTICIPATE SLOW INCREASE OF DEBRIS CLOUDS FROM SOUTHEAST ARIZONA AND
SONORA OVERNIGHT TONIGHT AND LINGERING FOR MUCH OF THE DAYTIME
WEDNESDAY...BASES GENERALLY AOA 15 KFT. ANTICIPATE SOUTHWEST AND
WEST WINDS TRANSITION TO SOUTHEAST WINDS BY SUNRISE AND LINGER FOR
MUCH OF THE DAY. ANTICIPATE THUNDERSTORMS TO GET CLOSER TO PHOENIX
AREA AIRFIELDS WEDNESDAY EVENING. CONFIDENCE TOO LOW AT THIS POINT
TO INSERT TEMPO TSRA IN THE TAF/S BUT ANTICIPATE OUTFLOWS FROM
DISTANT STORMS TO BE MORE LIKELY.

AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDED TAFS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY...
STRONG HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN THE PREDOMINANT WEATHER FEATURE
ACROSS THE REGION. BIGGEST IMPACT WILL BE THE HEAT...WITH ABOVE
NORMAL TEMPERATURES LIKELY THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE TREND WILL
BE TOWARDS INCREASING MOISTURE EACH DAY...THOUGH THUNDERSTORMS WILL
MAINLY BE CONCENTRATED IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF EASTERN AZ. ACROSS
THE LOWER DESERTS OF AZ...ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE
POSSIBLE...PARTICULARLY DURING THE WEEKEND...THOUGH THE GREATER
THREAT IS FOR OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES CAPABLE OF PRODUCING STRONG WIND
GUSTS. FURTHER WEST ACROSS SE CA...THE CHANCE FOR RAIN AND
THUNDERSTORM IMPACTS WILL BE EVEN LOWER. MINIMUM HUMIDITIES WILL
GENERALLY FALL INTO A 15-20 PERCENT RANGE WITH GOOD OVERNIGHT
RECOVERY.

&&

.PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

AZ...EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING FROM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY
EVENING AZZ020>023-025>028.

CA...EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING FROM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY
EVENING CAZ031>033.

&&

$$

VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/PHOENIX

DISCUSSION...AJ
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...VASQUEZ
CLIMATE...MO
AVIATION....AJ
FIRE WEATHER...HIRSCH







000
FXUS65 KTWC 230401
AFDTWC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ
900 PM MST TUE JUL 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...ENOUGH MOISTURE IS BACK IN PLACE FOR A CHANCE OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS. HOTTER TEMPERATURES ARE POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY. THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE THIS
WEEKEND...ESPECIALLY SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND SATURDAY NIGHT.

&&

.DISCUSSION...00Z KTWC SOUNDING STARTING TO RAMP BACK UP WITH PW
VALUES BACK OVER 1.3 INCHES AND AN INCREASING EASTERLY TO
SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW. ORGANIZED CONVECTION EAST AND SOUTHEAST OF THE
AREA NOW PUSHING OUTFLOWS THROUGH SE AZ WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS FIRING ALONG OUTFLOWS SPREADING THROUGH MUCH
OF THE AREA WITH A FOCUS IN CENTRAL COCHISE COUNTY. INTERSECTING
OUTFLOWS COULD PUSH UP SOMETHING BRIEFLY STRONGER THROUGH THE EARLY
MORNING HOURS. UPDATED EARLIER FOR MORE PERSISTENT TRENDS OVERNIGHT
WITH COVERAGE SPREADING A LITTLE FURTHER WEST.

VERY NICE FEATURE NEAR NEW ORLEANS THAT 12Z ECMWF FRAGMENTED INTO AN
EASTERLY WAVE UNDER THE HIGH CENTER...AND INTO ARIZONA SATURDAY.
THAT WOULD DO THE TRICK. MEANWHILE ADDITIONAL MOISTURE SERVING FOR
AN UP PERIOD WEDNESDAY. POTENTIAL HEAT PROBLEMS SHOULDN`T BE QUITE
AS MUCH OF AN ISSUE FOR MOST OF OUR PART OF THE STATE WITH THE
ADDITIONAL MOISTURE WEDNESDAY.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...A DEFINITE UPSWING IN THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL
OCCUR WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS THE HIGH REPOSITIONS TO A
MORE FAVORABLE LOCATION OVER COLORADO. BOTH THE U OF A WRF/GFS AND
WRF/NAM SEEM TO SHOW THE BEST DEPICTION OF WHAT IS EXPECTED TODAY
AND WEDNESDAY... WITH ISOLATED TO SCATTERED ACTIVITY DEVELOPING IN
COCHISE COUNTY AND TRYING TO SPREAD TO THE WEST OR NORTHWEST LATE
THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING BUT NOT QUITE BEING ABLE TO MAKE IT
TO THE TUCSON AREA. FOR WEDNESDAY IT SHOWS ACTIVITY BLOSSOMING
GENERALLY OVER CENTRAL AREAS...INCLUDING TUCSON AND SPREADING WEST
INTO THE WESTERN DESERTS. HOWEVER...THIS WILL BE SHORT LIVED AS
MODELS THEN PROG DRY AIR MOVING IN FROM THE EAST ON THURSDAY...WHICH
WILL REDUCE THE POP FORECAST TO JUST ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS FOR MOST
PLACES AND ISOLATED TO LOW END SCATTERED COVERAGE FOR THE MOUNTAIN
TOPS.

A SLIGHT INCREASE IN THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED FOR FRIDAY...BUT MOSTLY
TO AREAS BETWEEN TUCSON AND THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER. THE MONSOON
SHOULD KICK BACK IN THIS WEEKEND IN EARNEST...WITH THE HIGH
POSITIONED JUST TO OUR NORTH OR NORTHEAST WITH A LONG FETCH OF
NORTHEAST TO EAST MID LEVEL FLOW SETTING UP ON SATURDAY AND EAST TO
SOUTHEAST FOR SUNDAY. AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE THROUGH
SOUTHERN ARIZONA LATE SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY WHICH SHOULD HELP TO
ENHANCE THUNDERSTORM CHANCES. AS A RESULT...LOOKING AT SCATTERED
CATEGORY POPS FOR MOST AREAS BOTH SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...BUT WITH AN
EMPHASIS FOR AREAS BETWEEN TUCSON AND NOGALES...AS WELL AS THE
MOUNTAIN TOPS. THIS IS ALL IN RESPONSE TO THE HIGH BEING GENERALLY
TO OUR NORTHEAST OVER EITHER THE FOUR CORNERS OR NORTHERN NEW
MEXICO.

BY EARLY NEXT WEEK ANOTHER DECREASE IN RAIN CHANCES AS THE HIGH SETS
UP NEARLY OVERHEAD. STILL ENOUGH MOISTURE AROUND FOR ISOLATED
DESERT/VALLEY POPS AND SCATTERED FOR MOUNTAIN LOCATIONS.

HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL GENERALLY BE 8 TO 10 DEGS ABOVE NORMAL FOR
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...THEN 5 TO 7 DEGS ABOVE NORMAL FOR FRIDAY
AND SATURDAY...THEN 3 TO 5 DEGS ABOVE NORMAL SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.
LOWS WILL GENERALLY BE 4 TO 6 DEGS ABOVE NORMAL EACH MORNING.

&&

.AVIATION...VALID THRU 24/03Z.
SCT -SHRA WITH ISOLD -TSRA OVERNIGHT...MAINLY EAST OF KTUS. BRIEF
WIND GUSTS TO NEAR 35 KTS MAY OCCUR WITH THIS ACTIVITY. GENERALLY
SCT-BKN 10K FT AGL WITH BRIEF ISOLATED MVFR POSSIBLE IN CORE OF
STRONGEST SHOWERS. INCREASING THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE EXPECTED
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR TAF
AMENDMENTS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...WE AGAIN HAVE ENOUGH MOISTURE FOR A CHANCE OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS MOST OF SOUTHEAST ARIZONA. THERE
MAY BE A BRIEF DOWNTURN IN STORM COVERAGE THURSDAY BEFORE A MORE
TYPICAL MONSOON PATTERN MOVES IN BY THIS WEEKEND. EXPECT
STRONG...GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS WITH THE STRONGER THUNDERSTORMS.
POTENTIALLY HOTTER TEMPERATURES WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY WITH STRONG
HIGH PRESSURE NEARBY...BUT WITH THIS WILL BE MITIGATED SOMEWHAT BY
THE MOISTURE BACK IN THE PICTURE.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...A DEFINITE UPSWING IN THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL
OCCUR WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS THE HIGH REPOSITIONS TO A
MORE FAVORABLE LOCATION OVER COLORADO. BOTH THE U OF A WRF/GFS AND
WRF/NAM SEEM TO SHOW THE BEST DEPICTION OF WHAT IS EXPECTED TODAY
AND WEDNESDAY... WITH ISOLATED TO SCATTERED ACTIVITY DEVELOPING IN
COCHISE COUNTY AND TRYING TO SPREAD TO THE WEST OR NORTHWEST LATE
THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING BUT NOT QUITE BEING ABLE TO MAKE IT
TO THE TUCSON AREA. FOR WEDNESDAY IT SHOWS ACTIVITY BLOSSOMING
GENERALLY OVER CENTRAL AREAS...INCLUDING TUCSON AND SPREADING WEST
INTO THE WESTERN DESERTS. HOWEVER...THIS WILL BE SHORT LIVED AS
MODELS THEN PROG DRY AIR MOVING IN FROM THE EAST ON THURSDAY...WHICH
WILL REDUCE THE POP FORECAST TO JUST ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS FOR MOST
PLACES AND ISOLATED TO LOW END SCATTERED COVERAGE FOR THE MOUNTAIN
TOPS.

A SLIGHT INCREASE IN THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED FOR FRIDAY...BUT MOSTLY
TO AREAS BETWEEN TUCSON AND THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER. THE MONSOON
SHOULD KICK BACK IN THIS WEEKEND IN EARNEST...WITH THE HIGH
POSITIONED JUST TO OUR NORTH OR NORTHEAST WITH A LONG FETCH OF
NORTHEAST TO EAST MID LEVEL FLOW SETTING UP ON SATURDAY AND EAST TO
SOUTHEAST FOR SUNDAY. AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE THROUGH
SOUTHERN ARIZONA LATE SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY WHICH SHOULD HELP TO
ENHANCE THUNDERSTORM CHANCES. AS A RESULT...LOOKING AT SCATTERED
CATEGORY POPS FOR MOST AREAS BOTH SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...BUT WITH AN
EMPHASIS FOR AREAS BETWEEN TUCSON AND NOGALES...AS WELL AS THE
MOUNTAIN TOPS. THIS IS ALL IN RESPONSE TO THE HIGH BEING GENERALLY
TO OUR NORTHEAST OVER EITHER THE FOUR CORNERS OR NORTHERN NEW
MEXICO.

BY EARLY NEXT WEEK ANOTHER DECREASE IN RAIN CHANCES AS THE HIGH SETS
UP NEARLY OVERHEAD. STILL ENOUGH MOISTURE AROUND FOR ISOLATED
DESERT/VALLEY POPS AND SCATTERED FOR MOUNTAIN LOCATIONS.

HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL GENERALLY BE 8 TO 10 DEGS ABOVE NORMAL FOR
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...THEN 5 TO 7 DEGS ABOVE NORMAL FOR FRIDAY
AND SATURDAY...THEN 3 TO 5 DEGS ABOVE NORMAL SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.
LOWS WILL GENERALLY BE 4 TO 6 DEGS ABOVE NORMAL EACH MORNING.

&&

.TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...YOUTUBE...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/TUCSON

MEYER/CERNIGLIA/MOLLERE







000
FXUS65 KTWC 230401
AFDTWC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ
900 PM MST TUE JUL 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...ENOUGH MOISTURE IS BACK IN PLACE FOR A CHANCE OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS. HOTTER TEMPERATURES ARE POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY. THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE THIS
WEEKEND...ESPECIALLY SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND SATURDAY NIGHT.

&&

.DISCUSSION...00Z KTWC SOUNDING STARTING TO RAMP BACK UP WITH PW
VALUES BACK OVER 1.3 INCHES AND AN INCREASING EASTERLY TO
SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW. ORGANIZED CONVECTION EAST AND SOUTHEAST OF THE
AREA NOW PUSHING OUTFLOWS THROUGH SE AZ WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS FIRING ALONG OUTFLOWS SPREADING THROUGH MUCH
OF THE AREA WITH A FOCUS IN CENTRAL COCHISE COUNTY. INTERSECTING
OUTFLOWS COULD PUSH UP SOMETHING BRIEFLY STRONGER THROUGH THE EARLY
MORNING HOURS. UPDATED EARLIER FOR MORE PERSISTENT TRENDS OVERNIGHT
WITH COVERAGE SPREADING A LITTLE FURTHER WEST.

VERY NICE FEATURE NEAR NEW ORLEANS THAT 12Z ECMWF FRAGMENTED INTO AN
EASTERLY WAVE UNDER THE HIGH CENTER...AND INTO ARIZONA SATURDAY.
THAT WOULD DO THE TRICK. MEANWHILE ADDITIONAL MOISTURE SERVING FOR
AN UP PERIOD WEDNESDAY. POTENTIAL HEAT PROBLEMS SHOULDN`T BE QUITE
AS MUCH OF AN ISSUE FOR MOST OF OUR PART OF THE STATE WITH THE
ADDITIONAL MOISTURE WEDNESDAY.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...A DEFINITE UPSWING IN THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL
OCCUR WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS THE HIGH REPOSITIONS TO A
MORE FAVORABLE LOCATION OVER COLORADO. BOTH THE U OF A WRF/GFS AND
WRF/NAM SEEM TO SHOW THE BEST DEPICTION OF WHAT IS EXPECTED TODAY
AND WEDNESDAY... WITH ISOLATED TO SCATTERED ACTIVITY DEVELOPING IN
COCHISE COUNTY AND TRYING TO SPREAD TO THE WEST OR NORTHWEST LATE
THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING BUT NOT QUITE BEING ABLE TO MAKE IT
TO THE TUCSON AREA. FOR WEDNESDAY IT SHOWS ACTIVITY BLOSSOMING
GENERALLY OVER CENTRAL AREAS...INCLUDING TUCSON AND SPREADING WEST
INTO THE WESTERN DESERTS. HOWEVER...THIS WILL BE SHORT LIVED AS
MODELS THEN PROG DRY AIR MOVING IN FROM THE EAST ON THURSDAY...WHICH
WILL REDUCE THE POP FORECAST TO JUST ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS FOR MOST
PLACES AND ISOLATED TO LOW END SCATTERED COVERAGE FOR THE MOUNTAIN
TOPS.

A SLIGHT INCREASE IN THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED FOR FRIDAY...BUT MOSTLY
TO AREAS BETWEEN TUCSON AND THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER. THE MONSOON
SHOULD KICK BACK IN THIS WEEKEND IN EARNEST...WITH THE HIGH
POSITIONED JUST TO OUR NORTH OR NORTHEAST WITH A LONG FETCH OF
NORTHEAST TO EAST MID LEVEL FLOW SETTING UP ON SATURDAY AND EAST TO
SOUTHEAST FOR SUNDAY. AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE THROUGH
SOUTHERN ARIZONA LATE SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY WHICH SHOULD HELP TO
ENHANCE THUNDERSTORM CHANCES. AS A RESULT...LOOKING AT SCATTERED
CATEGORY POPS FOR MOST AREAS BOTH SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...BUT WITH AN
EMPHASIS FOR AREAS BETWEEN TUCSON AND NOGALES...AS WELL AS THE
MOUNTAIN TOPS. THIS IS ALL IN RESPONSE TO THE HIGH BEING GENERALLY
TO OUR NORTHEAST OVER EITHER THE FOUR CORNERS OR NORTHERN NEW
MEXICO.

BY EARLY NEXT WEEK ANOTHER DECREASE IN RAIN CHANCES AS THE HIGH SETS
UP NEARLY OVERHEAD. STILL ENOUGH MOISTURE AROUND FOR ISOLATED
DESERT/VALLEY POPS AND SCATTERED FOR MOUNTAIN LOCATIONS.

HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL GENERALLY BE 8 TO 10 DEGS ABOVE NORMAL FOR
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...THEN 5 TO 7 DEGS ABOVE NORMAL FOR FRIDAY
AND SATURDAY...THEN 3 TO 5 DEGS ABOVE NORMAL SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.
LOWS WILL GENERALLY BE 4 TO 6 DEGS ABOVE NORMAL EACH MORNING.

&&

.AVIATION...VALID THRU 24/03Z.
SCT -SHRA WITH ISOLD -TSRA OVERNIGHT...MAINLY EAST OF KTUS. BRIEF
WIND GUSTS TO NEAR 35 KTS MAY OCCUR WITH THIS ACTIVITY. GENERALLY
SCT-BKN 10K FT AGL WITH BRIEF ISOLATED MVFR POSSIBLE IN CORE OF
STRONGEST SHOWERS. INCREASING THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE EXPECTED
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR TAF
AMENDMENTS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...WE AGAIN HAVE ENOUGH MOISTURE FOR A CHANCE OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS MOST OF SOUTHEAST ARIZONA. THERE
MAY BE A BRIEF DOWNTURN IN STORM COVERAGE THURSDAY BEFORE A MORE
TYPICAL MONSOON PATTERN MOVES IN BY THIS WEEKEND. EXPECT
STRONG...GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS WITH THE STRONGER THUNDERSTORMS.
POTENTIALLY HOTTER TEMPERATURES WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY WITH STRONG
HIGH PRESSURE NEARBY...BUT WITH THIS WILL BE MITIGATED SOMEWHAT BY
THE MOISTURE BACK IN THE PICTURE.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...A DEFINITE UPSWING IN THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL
OCCUR WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS THE HIGH REPOSITIONS TO A
MORE FAVORABLE LOCATION OVER COLORADO. BOTH THE U OF A WRF/GFS AND
WRF/NAM SEEM TO SHOW THE BEST DEPICTION OF WHAT IS EXPECTED TODAY
AND WEDNESDAY... WITH ISOLATED TO SCATTERED ACTIVITY DEVELOPING IN
COCHISE COUNTY AND TRYING TO SPREAD TO THE WEST OR NORTHWEST LATE
THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING BUT NOT QUITE BEING ABLE TO MAKE IT
TO THE TUCSON AREA. FOR WEDNESDAY IT SHOWS ACTIVITY BLOSSOMING
GENERALLY OVER CENTRAL AREAS...INCLUDING TUCSON AND SPREADING WEST
INTO THE WESTERN DESERTS. HOWEVER...THIS WILL BE SHORT LIVED AS
MODELS THEN PROG DRY AIR MOVING IN FROM THE EAST ON THURSDAY...WHICH
WILL REDUCE THE POP FORECAST TO JUST ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS FOR MOST
PLACES AND ISOLATED TO LOW END SCATTERED COVERAGE FOR THE MOUNTAIN
TOPS.

A SLIGHT INCREASE IN THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED FOR FRIDAY...BUT MOSTLY
TO AREAS BETWEEN TUCSON AND THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER. THE MONSOON
SHOULD KICK BACK IN THIS WEEKEND IN EARNEST...WITH THE HIGH
POSITIONED JUST TO OUR NORTH OR NORTHEAST WITH A LONG FETCH OF
NORTHEAST TO EAST MID LEVEL FLOW SETTING UP ON SATURDAY AND EAST TO
SOUTHEAST FOR SUNDAY. AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE THROUGH
SOUTHERN ARIZONA LATE SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY WHICH SHOULD HELP TO
ENHANCE THUNDERSTORM CHANCES. AS A RESULT...LOOKING AT SCATTERED
CATEGORY POPS FOR MOST AREAS BOTH SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...BUT WITH AN
EMPHASIS FOR AREAS BETWEEN TUCSON AND NOGALES...AS WELL AS THE
MOUNTAIN TOPS. THIS IS ALL IN RESPONSE TO THE HIGH BEING GENERALLY
TO OUR NORTHEAST OVER EITHER THE FOUR CORNERS OR NORTHERN NEW
MEXICO.

BY EARLY NEXT WEEK ANOTHER DECREASE IN RAIN CHANCES AS THE HIGH SETS
UP NEARLY OVERHEAD. STILL ENOUGH MOISTURE AROUND FOR ISOLATED
DESERT/VALLEY POPS AND SCATTERED FOR MOUNTAIN LOCATIONS.

HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL GENERALLY BE 8 TO 10 DEGS ABOVE NORMAL FOR
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...THEN 5 TO 7 DEGS ABOVE NORMAL FOR FRIDAY
AND SATURDAY...THEN 3 TO 5 DEGS ABOVE NORMAL SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.
LOWS WILL GENERALLY BE 4 TO 6 DEGS ABOVE NORMAL EACH MORNING.

&&

.TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...YOUTUBE...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/TUCSON

MEYER/CERNIGLIA/MOLLERE






000
FXUS65 KFGZ 230358
AFDFGZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ
858 PM MST TUE JUL 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
EXPECT AN INCREASE IN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ON WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY...THEN A SLIGHT DECREASE FOR THE REST OF THE WEEK. HIGH
TEMPERATURES WILL RUN 3 TO 6 DEGREES ABOVE AVERAGE INTO THE
WEEKEND.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
ISOLATED AND LIGHT SHOWERS WILL PERSIST AT TIMES THROUGH THE
NIGHT. NO MAJOR CHANGES TO FORECAST ANTICIPATED.

&&

.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION /330 PM MST/...
THE HIGH PRESSURE CIRCULATION IS CENTERED OVER EASTERN NEW MEXICO
TODAY. THIS IS A GOOD PLACEMENT TO INCREASE MOIST SOUTHEASTERLY
FLOW OVER ARIZONA. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES THAT A
DISTURBANCE ROTATING AROUND THE CENTER OF THE HIGH CROSSED THE
TEXAS BIG BEND COUNTRY THIS MORNING. STREAMLINE FORECAST CHARTS
SHOW THIS FEATURE MOVING INTO ARIZONA ON WEDNESDAY FOR A
NOTICEABLE INCREASE IN MOISTURE AND SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY. MOISTURE LEVELS WILL REMAIN HIGH (OVER AN INCH PWAT FOR
THE WESTERN MOGOLLON RIM) THROUGH THURSDAY AFTERNOON. MOISTURE
LEVELS WILL THEN DECREASE AGAIN AFTER THURSDAY FOR A SLIGHT
DECREASES IN STORM ACTIVITY. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN 3 TO 6
DEGREES ABOVE AVERAGE THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION...
FOR THE 06Z PACKAGE...PRIMARILY VFR CONDITIONS FOR THE NEXT 24
HOURS. AREAS OF SMOKE FROM WILDFIRES...WITH MVFR VSBYS POSSIBLE
VCNTY KSEZ...KFLG...KGCN. ISOLATED -SHRA OVERNIGHT. SCATTERED
-SHRA/TSRA REDEVELOPING AFTER 18Z THU. AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT
UPDATED FOR AMENDMENTS.

&&

.FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC.........KD/MAS
AVIATION.......KD

FOR NORTHERN ARIZONA WEATHER INFORMATION VISIT
WEATHER.GOV/FLAGSTAFF







000
FXUS65 KFGZ 230358
AFDFGZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ
858 PM MST TUE JUL 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
EXPECT AN INCREASE IN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ON WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY...THEN A SLIGHT DECREASE FOR THE REST OF THE WEEK. HIGH
TEMPERATURES WILL RUN 3 TO 6 DEGREES ABOVE AVERAGE INTO THE
WEEKEND.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
ISOLATED AND LIGHT SHOWERS WILL PERSIST AT TIMES THROUGH THE
NIGHT. NO MAJOR CHANGES TO FORECAST ANTICIPATED.

&&

.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION /330 PM MST/...
THE HIGH PRESSURE CIRCULATION IS CENTERED OVER EASTERN NEW MEXICO
TODAY. THIS IS A GOOD PLACEMENT TO INCREASE MOIST SOUTHEASTERLY
FLOW OVER ARIZONA. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES THAT A
DISTURBANCE ROTATING AROUND THE CENTER OF THE HIGH CROSSED THE
TEXAS BIG BEND COUNTRY THIS MORNING. STREAMLINE FORECAST CHARTS
SHOW THIS FEATURE MOVING INTO ARIZONA ON WEDNESDAY FOR A
NOTICEABLE INCREASE IN MOISTURE AND SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY. MOISTURE LEVELS WILL REMAIN HIGH (OVER AN INCH PWAT FOR
THE WESTERN MOGOLLON RIM) THROUGH THURSDAY AFTERNOON. MOISTURE
LEVELS WILL THEN DECREASE AGAIN AFTER THURSDAY FOR A SLIGHT
DECREASES IN STORM ACTIVITY. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN 3 TO 6
DEGREES ABOVE AVERAGE THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION...
FOR THE 06Z PACKAGE...PRIMARILY VFR CONDITIONS FOR THE NEXT 24
HOURS. AREAS OF SMOKE FROM WILDFIRES...WITH MVFR VSBYS POSSIBLE
VCNTY KSEZ...KFLG...KGCN. ISOLATED -SHRA OVERNIGHT. SCATTERED
-SHRA/TSRA REDEVELOPING AFTER 18Z THU. AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT
UPDATED FOR AMENDMENTS.

&&

.FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC.........KD/MAS
AVIATION.......KD

FOR NORTHERN ARIZONA WEATHER INFORMATION VISIT
WEATHER.GOV/FLAGSTAFF







000
FXUS65 KFGZ 230358
AFDFGZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ
858 PM MST TUE JUL 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
EXPECT AN INCREASE IN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ON WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY...THEN A SLIGHT DECREASE FOR THE REST OF THE WEEK. HIGH
TEMPERATURES WILL RUN 3 TO 6 DEGREES ABOVE AVERAGE INTO THE
WEEKEND.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
ISOLATED AND LIGHT SHOWERS WILL PERSIST AT TIMES THROUGH THE
NIGHT. NO MAJOR CHANGES TO FORECAST ANTICIPATED.

&&

.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION /330 PM MST/...
THE HIGH PRESSURE CIRCULATION IS CENTERED OVER EASTERN NEW MEXICO
TODAY. THIS IS A GOOD PLACEMENT TO INCREASE MOIST SOUTHEASTERLY
FLOW OVER ARIZONA. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES THAT A
DISTURBANCE ROTATING AROUND THE CENTER OF THE HIGH CROSSED THE
TEXAS BIG BEND COUNTRY THIS MORNING. STREAMLINE FORECAST CHARTS
SHOW THIS FEATURE MOVING INTO ARIZONA ON WEDNESDAY FOR A
NOTICEABLE INCREASE IN MOISTURE AND SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY. MOISTURE LEVELS WILL REMAIN HIGH (OVER AN INCH PWAT FOR
THE WESTERN MOGOLLON RIM) THROUGH THURSDAY AFTERNOON. MOISTURE
LEVELS WILL THEN DECREASE AGAIN AFTER THURSDAY FOR A SLIGHT
DECREASES IN STORM ACTIVITY. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN 3 TO 6
DEGREES ABOVE AVERAGE THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION...
FOR THE 06Z PACKAGE...PRIMARILY VFR CONDITIONS FOR THE NEXT 24
HOURS. AREAS OF SMOKE FROM WILDFIRES...WITH MVFR VSBYS POSSIBLE
VCNTY KSEZ...KFLG...KGCN. ISOLATED -SHRA OVERNIGHT. SCATTERED
-SHRA/TSRA REDEVELOPING AFTER 18Z THU. AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT
UPDATED FOR AMENDMENTS.

&&

.FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC.........KD/MAS
AVIATION.......KD

FOR NORTHERN ARIZONA WEATHER INFORMATION VISIT
WEATHER.GOV/FLAGSTAFF







000
FXUS65 KFGZ 230358
AFDFGZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ
858 PM MST TUE JUL 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
EXPECT AN INCREASE IN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ON WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY...THEN A SLIGHT DECREASE FOR THE REST OF THE WEEK. HIGH
TEMPERATURES WILL RUN 3 TO 6 DEGREES ABOVE AVERAGE INTO THE
WEEKEND.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
ISOLATED AND LIGHT SHOWERS WILL PERSIST AT TIMES THROUGH THE
NIGHT. NO MAJOR CHANGES TO FORECAST ANTICIPATED.

&&

.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION /330 PM MST/...
THE HIGH PRESSURE CIRCULATION IS CENTERED OVER EASTERN NEW MEXICO
TODAY. THIS IS A GOOD PLACEMENT TO INCREASE MOIST SOUTHEASTERLY
FLOW OVER ARIZONA. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES THAT A
DISTURBANCE ROTATING AROUND THE CENTER OF THE HIGH CROSSED THE
TEXAS BIG BEND COUNTRY THIS MORNING. STREAMLINE FORECAST CHARTS
SHOW THIS FEATURE MOVING INTO ARIZONA ON WEDNESDAY FOR A
NOTICEABLE INCREASE IN MOISTURE AND SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY. MOISTURE LEVELS WILL REMAIN HIGH (OVER AN INCH PWAT FOR
THE WESTERN MOGOLLON RIM) THROUGH THURSDAY AFTERNOON. MOISTURE
LEVELS WILL THEN DECREASE AGAIN AFTER THURSDAY FOR A SLIGHT
DECREASES IN STORM ACTIVITY. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN 3 TO 6
DEGREES ABOVE AVERAGE THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION...
FOR THE 06Z PACKAGE...PRIMARILY VFR CONDITIONS FOR THE NEXT 24
HOURS. AREAS OF SMOKE FROM WILDFIRES...WITH MVFR VSBYS POSSIBLE
VCNTY KSEZ...KFLG...KGCN. ISOLATED -SHRA OVERNIGHT. SCATTERED
-SHRA/TSRA REDEVELOPING AFTER 18Z THU. AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT
UPDATED FOR AMENDMENTS.

&&

.FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC.........KD/MAS
AVIATION.......KD

FOR NORTHERN ARIZONA WEATHER INFORMATION VISIT
WEATHER.GOV/FLAGSTAFF







000
FXUS65 KPSR 222226
AFDPSR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PHOENIX AZ
325 PM MST TUE JUL 22 2014

.UPDATE...TO AVIATION DISCUSSION...

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
A STRONG HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP OVER THE REGION
THIS WEEK...RESULTING IN VERY HOT TEMPERATURES WEDNESDAY THROUGH
FRIDAY. AT SAME TIME...MONSOON MOISTURE WILL SLOWLY INCREASE OVER
THE AREA...WITH OCCASIONAL CLOUDINESS AT TIMES. INCREASED
MOISTURE...COMBINED WITH SEVERAL WEAK WEATHER DISTURBANCES FROM
MEXICO...ARE FORECAST TO INCREASE THE CHANCE OF AFTERNOON AND
EVENING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...MAINLY ACROSS ARIZONA...THIS
WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...
A STRONG WARM-UP WAS UNDERWAY ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA...INCLUDING
THE SOUTH CENTRAL AZ DESERTS WHERE VARIABLE CLOUDS HAD DEVELOPED
EARLIER IN THE DAY...AND AN EARLY 109 DEG F TEMP IN PHOENIX AT 1245
PM (WHICH WAS OUR FORECAST HIGH FOR THE DAY).

EARLIER CONCERNS...SINCE AN EXCESSIVE HEAT WATCH WAS POSTED FOR ALL
THE DESERTS BETWEEN SOUTHEAST CA TO SOUTH CENTRAL AZ...WAS HOW MUCH
INSOLATION WOULD BE REDUCED...FROM THE CLOUDS/HUMIDITY...CAUSING A
REDUCTION IN THE POTENTIAL SURFACE HEATING. OBVIOUSLY TODAY THE
CLOUDS MADE LITTLE DIFFERENCE IN THE STRONG EARLY DAY WARM-UP.
THEREFORE SINCE THERE IS NO MAJOR MOISTURE SURGE FORECAST TONIGHT
AND WEDNESDAY...WE DECIDED TO UPGRADE THE EXCESSIVE HEAT WATCH TO A
WARNING FOR ALL THE LOWER DESERTS BETWEEN IMPERIAL CALIFORNIA AND
PHOENIX ARIZONA.

VARIABLE CLOUDS AND EVEN A FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAY BE IN
THE OFFING OVER THE MOUNTAINS EAST OF PHOENIX ON WED...WITH PERHAPS
A LATE DAY CONVECTIVE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY DESCENDING ONTO THE DESERTS
WITH POSSIBLE BLOWING DUST.

ON THURSDAY...A DRIER AIRMASS MOVES INTO THE REGION FROM THE EAST.
500 MB TEMPERATURES WARM TO AN UNSEASONABLE MINUS 4 DEG C INDICATING
STABILITY AND A REDUCED THREAT FOR MOUNTAIN AFTERNOON CONVECTION.
PRECIP PROBABILITIES WERE ALSO LOWERED IN THE MOUNTAINS EAST OF
PHOENIX.

FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...
COOLER AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST THIS PERIOD AS HIGHER
HUMIDITIES ARE EXPECTED...ALONG WITH A BETTER THREAT FOR AFTERNOON
AND EVENING CONVECTION.

&&

.CLIMATE...

RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURE FOR THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK.

CITY        JULY 22       JULY 23      JULY 24
----        -------       -------      -------
PHOENIX   116 IN 2006   114 IN 2006  114 IN 2006
YUMA      116 IN 2006   115 IN 1959  117 IN 1943

&&

.AVIATION...
SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA INCLUDING KPHX...KIWA...AND KSDL...
SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA AND SOUTHWEST ARIZONA INCLUDING KIPL AND KBLH...

MID TO HIGH CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO STREAM ACROSS AZ THIS EVENING
AND OVERNIGHT FROM THE EAST-SOUTHEAST...GNLY SCT-BKN AOA 20KFT. WITH
HIGH PRESSURE REMAINING OVER THE FOUR CORNERS REGION...WINDS WILL
REMAIN ON THE LIGHT SIDE FOLLOWING DIURNALLY DRIVEN HEADINGS.

AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDED TAFS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY...
STRONG HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN THE PREDOMINANT WEATHER FEATURE
ACROSS THE REGION. BIGGEST IMPACT WILL BE THE HEAT...WITH ABOVE
NORMAL TEMPERATURES LIKELY THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE TREND WILL
BE TOWARDS INCREASING MOISTURE EACH DAY...THOUGH THUNDERSTORMS WILL
MAINLY BE CONCENTRATED IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF EASTERN AZ. ACROSS
THE LOWER DESERTS OF AZ...ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE
POSSIBLE...PARTICULARLY DURING THE WEEKEND...THOUGH THE GREATER
THREAT IS FOR OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES CAPABLE OF PRODUCING STRONG WIND
GUSTS. FURTHER WEST ACROSS SE CA...THE CHANCE FOR RAIN AND
THUNDERSTORM IMPACTS WILL BE EVEN LOWER. MINIMUM HUMIDITIES WILL
GENERALLY FALL INTO A 15-20 PERCENT RANGE WITH GOOD OVERNIGHT
RECOVERY.

&&

.PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

AZ...EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING FROM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY
EVENING AZZ020>023-025>028.

CA...EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING FROM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY
EVENING CAZ031>033.

&&

$$

VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/PHOENIX

DISCUSSION...VASQUEZ
CLIMATE...MO
AVIATION....NOLTE
FIRE WEATHER...HIRSCH








000
FXUS65 KPSR 222226
AFDPSR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PHOENIX AZ
325 PM MST TUE JUL 22 2014

.UPDATE...TO AVIATION DISCUSSION...

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
A STRONG HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP OVER THE REGION
THIS WEEK...RESULTING IN VERY HOT TEMPERATURES WEDNESDAY THROUGH
FRIDAY. AT SAME TIME...MONSOON MOISTURE WILL SLOWLY INCREASE OVER
THE AREA...WITH OCCASIONAL CLOUDINESS AT TIMES. INCREASED
MOISTURE...COMBINED WITH SEVERAL WEAK WEATHER DISTURBANCES FROM
MEXICO...ARE FORECAST TO INCREASE THE CHANCE OF AFTERNOON AND
EVENING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...MAINLY ACROSS ARIZONA...THIS
WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...
A STRONG WARM-UP WAS UNDERWAY ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA...INCLUDING
THE SOUTH CENTRAL AZ DESERTS WHERE VARIABLE CLOUDS HAD DEVELOPED
EARLIER IN THE DAY...AND AN EARLY 109 DEG F TEMP IN PHOENIX AT 1245
PM (WHICH WAS OUR FORECAST HIGH FOR THE DAY).

EARLIER CONCERNS...SINCE AN EXCESSIVE HEAT WATCH WAS POSTED FOR ALL
THE DESERTS BETWEEN SOUTHEAST CA TO SOUTH CENTRAL AZ...WAS HOW MUCH
INSOLATION WOULD BE REDUCED...FROM THE CLOUDS/HUMIDITY...CAUSING A
REDUCTION IN THE POTENTIAL SURFACE HEATING. OBVIOUSLY TODAY THE
CLOUDS MADE LITTLE DIFFERENCE IN THE STRONG EARLY DAY WARM-UP.
THEREFORE SINCE THERE IS NO MAJOR MOISTURE SURGE FORECAST TONIGHT
AND WEDNESDAY...WE DECIDED TO UPGRADE THE EXCESSIVE HEAT WATCH TO A
WARNING FOR ALL THE LOWER DESERTS BETWEEN IMPERIAL CALIFORNIA AND
PHOENIX ARIZONA.

VARIABLE CLOUDS AND EVEN A FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAY BE IN
THE OFFING OVER THE MOUNTAINS EAST OF PHOENIX ON WED...WITH PERHAPS
A LATE DAY CONVECTIVE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY DESCENDING ONTO THE DESERTS
WITH POSSIBLE BLOWING DUST.

ON THURSDAY...A DRIER AIRMASS MOVES INTO THE REGION FROM THE EAST.
500 MB TEMPERATURES WARM TO AN UNSEASONABLE MINUS 4 DEG C INDICATING
STABILITY AND A REDUCED THREAT FOR MOUNTAIN AFTERNOON CONVECTION.
PRECIP PROBABILITIES WERE ALSO LOWERED IN THE MOUNTAINS EAST OF
PHOENIX.

FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...
COOLER AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST THIS PERIOD AS HIGHER
HUMIDITIES ARE EXPECTED...ALONG WITH A BETTER THREAT FOR AFTERNOON
AND EVENING CONVECTION.

&&

.CLIMATE...

RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURE FOR THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK.

CITY        JULY 22       JULY 23      JULY 24
----        -------       -------      -------
PHOENIX   116 IN 2006   114 IN 2006  114 IN 2006
YUMA      116 IN 2006   115 IN 1959  117 IN 1943

&&

.AVIATION...
SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA INCLUDING KPHX...KIWA...AND KSDL...
SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA AND SOUTHWEST ARIZONA INCLUDING KIPL AND KBLH...

MID TO HIGH CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO STREAM ACROSS AZ THIS EVENING
AND OVERNIGHT FROM THE EAST-SOUTHEAST...GNLY SCT-BKN AOA 20KFT. WITH
HIGH PRESSURE REMAINING OVER THE FOUR CORNERS REGION...WINDS WILL
REMAIN ON THE LIGHT SIDE FOLLOWING DIURNALLY DRIVEN HEADINGS.

AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDED TAFS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY...
STRONG HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN THE PREDOMINANT WEATHER FEATURE
ACROSS THE REGION. BIGGEST IMPACT WILL BE THE HEAT...WITH ABOVE
NORMAL TEMPERATURES LIKELY THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE TREND WILL
BE TOWARDS INCREASING MOISTURE EACH DAY...THOUGH THUNDERSTORMS WILL
MAINLY BE CONCENTRATED IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF EASTERN AZ. ACROSS
THE LOWER DESERTS OF AZ...ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE
POSSIBLE...PARTICULARLY DURING THE WEEKEND...THOUGH THE GREATER
THREAT IS FOR OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES CAPABLE OF PRODUCING STRONG WIND
GUSTS. FURTHER WEST ACROSS SE CA...THE CHANCE FOR RAIN AND
THUNDERSTORM IMPACTS WILL BE EVEN LOWER. MINIMUM HUMIDITIES WILL
GENERALLY FALL INTO A 15-20 PERCENT RANGE WITH GOOD OVERNIGHT
RECOVERY.

&&

.PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

AZ...EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING FROM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY
EVENING AZZ020>023-025>028.

CA...EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING FROM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY
EVENING CAZ031>033.

&&

$$

VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/PHOENIX

DISCUSSION...VASQUEZ
CLIMATE...MO
AVIATION....NOLTE
FIRE WEATHER...HIRSCH









000
FXUS65 KFGZ 222225
AFDFGZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ
330 PM MST TUE JUL 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...HIGH PRESSURE HAS MOVED INTO NEW MEXICO AND THE
CIRCULATION AROUND THE HIGH WILL INCREASE SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE OVER
ARIZONA THROUGH THURSDAY. THIS WILL BRING AN INCREASE IN SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ON WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...WITH A SLIGHT DECREASE FOR THE
REST OF THE WEEK. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL RUN 3 TO 6 DEGREES ABOVE
AVERAGE INTO THE WEEKEND.

&&

.DISCUSSION...THE HIGH PRESSURE CIRCULATION IS CENTERED OVER EASTERN
NEW MEXICO TODAY. THIS IS A GOOD PLACEMENT TO INCREASE THE MOIST
SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW OVER ARIZONA. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES THAT
A DISTURBANCE ROTATING AROUND THE CENTER OF THE HIGH CROSSED THE
TEXAS BIG BEND COUNTRY THIS MORNING. STREAMLINE FORECAST CHARTS
SHOW THIS FEATURE MOVING INTO ARIZONA ON WEDNESDAY FOR A NOTICEABLE
INCREASE IN MOISTURE AND SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY. MOISTURE
LEVELS WILL REMAIN HIGH (OVER AN INCH PWAT FOR THE WESTERN MOGOLLON
RIM) THROUGH THURSDAY AFTERNOON. MOISTURE LEVELS WILL THEN DECREASE
AGAIN AFTER THURSDAY FOR A SLIGHT DECREASES IN STORM ACTIVITY. HIGH
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN 3 TO 6 DEGREES ABOVE AVERAGE THROUGH THE
WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 00Z PACKAGE...PRIMARILY VFR CONDITIONS FOR THE
NEXT 24 HOURS. AREAS OF SMOKE FROM WILDFIRES...WITH MVFR VSBYS
POSSIBLE VCNTY KSEZ...KFLG...KGCN. ISOLATED -SHRA/TSRA UNTIL 03Z
WEDS...THEN BECOMING ISOLATED OVERNIGHT. WIND GUSTS TO 40 KT
POSSIBLE NEAR STRONGER CONVECTIVE CELLS. SCATTERED -SHRA/TSRA
REDEVELOPING AFTER 18Z THU. AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR
AMENDMENTS.

&&

.FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC.........MAS
AVIATION.......JJ

FOR NORTHERN ARIZONA WEATHER INFORMATION VISIT
WEATHER.GOV/FLAGSTAFF



















000
FXUS65 KFGZ 222225
AFDFGZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ
330 PM MST TUE JUL 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...HIGH PRESSURE HAS MOVED INTO NEW MEXICO AND THE
CIRCULATION AROUND THE HIGH WILL INCREASE SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE OVER
ARIZONA THROUGH THURSDAY. THIS WILL BRING AN INCREASE IN SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ON WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...WITH A SLIGHT DECREASE FOR THE
REST OF THE WEEK. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL RUN 3 TO 6 DEGREES ABOVE
AVERAGE INTO THE WEEKEND.

&&

.DISCUSSION...THE HIGH PRESSURE CIRCULATION IS CENTERED OVER EASTERN
NEW MEXICO TODAY. THIS IS A GOOD PLACEMENT TO INCREASE THE MOIST
SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW OVER ARIZONA. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES THAT
A DISTURBANCE ROTATING AROUND THE CENTER OF THE HIGH CROSSED THE
TEXAS BIG BEND COUNTRY THIS MORNING. STREAMLINE FORECAST CHARTS
SHOW THIS FEATURE MOVING INTO ARIZONA ON WEDNESDAY FOR A NOTICEABLE
INCREASE IN MOISTURE AND SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY. MOISTURE
LEVELS WILL REMAIN HIGH (OVER AN INCH PWAT FOR THE WESTERN MOGOLLON
RIM) THROUGH THURSDAY AFTERNOON. MOISTURE LEVELS WILL THEN DECREASE
AGAIN AFTER THURSDAY FOR A SLIGHT DECREASES IN STORM ACTIVITY. HIGH
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN 3 TO 6 DEGREES ABOVE AVERAGE THROUGH THE
WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 00Z PACKAGE...PRIMARILY VFR CONDITIONS FOR THE
NEXT 24 HOURS. AREAS OF SMOKE FROM WILDFIRES...WITH MVFR VSBYS
POSSIBLE VCNTY KSEZ...KFLG...KGCN. ISOLATED -SHRA/TSRA UNTIL 03Z
WEDS...THEN BECOMING ISOLATED OVERNIGHT. WIND GUSTS TO 40 KT
POSSIBLE NEAR STRONGER CONVECTIVE CELLS. SCATTERED -SHRA/TSRA
REDEVELOPING AFTER 18Z THU. AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR
AMENDMENTS.

&&

.FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC.........MAS
AVIATION.......JJ

FOR NORTHERN ARIZONA WEATHER INFORMATION VISIT
WEATHER.GOV/FLAGSTAFF



















000
FXUS65 KFGZ 222225
AFDFGZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ
330 PM MST TUE JUL 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...HIGH PRESSURE HAS MOVED INTO NEW MEXICO AND THE
CIRCULATION AROUND THE HIGH WILL INCREASE SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE OVER
ARIZONA THROUGH THURSDAY. THIS WILL BRING AN INCREASE IN SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ON WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...WITH A SLIGHT DECREASE FOR THE
REST OF THE WEEK. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL RUN 3 TO 6 DEGREES ABOVE
AVERAGE INTO THE WEEKEND.

&&

.DISCUSSION...THE HIGH PRESSURE CIRCULATION IS CENTERED OVER EASTERN
NEW MEXICO TODAY. THIS IS A GOOD PLACEMENT TO INCREASE THE MOIST
SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW OVER ARIZONA. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES THAT
A DISTURBANCE ROTATING AROUND THE CENTER OF THE HIGH CROSSED THE
TEXAS BIG BEND COUNTRY THIS MORNING. STREAMLINE FORECAST CHARTS
SHOW THIS FEATURE MOVING INTO ARIZONA ON WEDNESDAY FOR A NOTICEABLE
INCREASE IN MOISTURE AND SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY. MOISTURE
LEVELS WILL REMAIN HIGH (OVER AN INCH PWAT FOR THE WESTERN MOGOLLON
RIM) THROUGH THURSDAY AFTERNOON. MOISTURE LEVELS WILL THEN DECREASE
AGAIN AFTER THURSDAY FOR A SLIGHT DECREASES IN STORM ACTIVITY. HIGH
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN 3 TO 6 DEGREES ABOVE AVERAGE THROUGH THE
WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 00Z PACKAGE...PRIMARILY VFR CONDITIONS FOR THE
NEXT 24 HOURS. AREAS OF SMOKE FROM WILDFIRES...WITH MVFR VSBYS
POSSIBLE VCNTY KSEZ...KFLG...KGCN. ISOLATED -SHRA/TSRA UNTIL 03Z
WEDS...THEN BECOMING ISOLATED OVERNIGHT. WIND GUSTS TO 40 KT
POSSIBLE NEAR STRONGER CONVECTIVE CELLS. SCATTERED -SHRA/TSRA
REDEVELOPING AFTER 18Z THU. AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR
AMENDMENTS.

&&

.FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC.........MAS
AVIATION.......JJ

FOR NORTHERN ARIZONA WEATHER INFORMATION VISIT
WEATHER.GOV/FLAGSTAFF



















000
FXUS65 KFGZ 222225
AFDFGZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ
330 PM MST TUE JUL 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...HIGH PRESSURE HAS MOVED INTO NEW MEXICO AND THE
CIRCULATION AROUND THE HIGH WILL INCREASE SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE OVER
ARIZONA THROUGH THURSDAY. THIS WILL BRING AN INCREASE IN SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ON WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...WITH A SLIGHT DECREASE FOR THE
REST OF THE WEEK. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL RUN 3 TO 6 DEGREES ABOVE
AVERAGE INTO THE WEEKEND.

&&

.DISCUSSION...THE HIGH PRESSURE CIRCULATION IS CENTERED OVER EASTERN
NEW MEXICO TODAY. THIS IS A GOOD PLACEMENT TO INCREASE THE MOIST
SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW OVER ARIZONA. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES THAT
A DISTURBANCE ROTATING AROUND THE CENTER OF THE HIGH CROSSED THE
TEXAS BIG BEND COUNTRY THIS MORNING. STREAMLINE FORECAST CHARTS
SHOW THIS FEATURE MOVING INTO ARIZONA ON WEDNESDAY FOR A NOTICEABLE
INCREASE IN MOISTURE AND SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY. MOISTURE
LEVELS WILL REMAIN HIGH (OVER AN INCH PWAT FOR THE WESTERN MOGOLLON
RIM) THROUGH THURSDAY AFTERNOON. MOISTURE LEVELS WILL THEN DECREASE
AGAIN AFTER THURSDAY FOR A SLIGHT DECREASES IN STORM ACTIVITY. HIGH
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN 3 TO 6 DEGREES ABOVE AVERAGE THROUGH THE
WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 00Z PACKAGE...PRIMARILY VFR CONDITIONS FOR THE
NEXT 24 HOURS. AREAS OF SMOKE FROM WILDFIRES...WITH MVFR VSBYS
POSSIBLE VCNTY KSEZ...KFLG...KGCN. ISOLATED -SHRA/TSRA UNTIL 03Z
WEDS...THEN BECOMING ISOLATED OVERNIGHT. WIND GUSTS TO 40 KT
POSSIBLE NEAR STRONGER CONVECTIVE CELLS. SCATTERED -SHRA/TSRA
REDEVELOPING AFTER 18Z THU. AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR
AMENDMENTS.

&&

.FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC.........MAS
AVIATION.......JJ

FOR NORTHERN ARIZONA WEATHER INFORMATION VISIT
WEATHER.GOV/FLAGSTAFF



















000
FXUS65 KPSR 222159
AFDPSR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PHOENIX AZ
300 PM MST TUE JUL 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A STRONG HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP OVER THE REGION
THIS WEEK...RESULTING IN VERY HOT TEMPERATURES WEDNESDAY THROUGH
FRIDAY. AT SAME TIME...MONSOON MOISTURE WILL SLOWLY INCREASE OVER
THE AREA...WITH OCCASIONAL CLOUDINESS AT TIMES. INCREASED
MOISTURE...COMBINED WITH SEVERAL WEAK WEATHER DISTURBANCES FROM
MEXICO...ARE FORECAST TO INCREASE THE CHANCE OF AFTERNOON AND
EVENING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...MAINLY ACROSS ARIZONA...THIS
WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...
A STRONG WARM-UP WAS UNDERWAY ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA...INCLUDING
THE SOUTH CENTRAL AZ DESERTS WHERE VARIABLE CLOUDS HAD DEVELOPED
EARLIER IN THE DAY...AND AN EARLY 109 DEG F TEMP IN PHOENIX AT 1245
PM (WHICH WAS OUR FORECAST HIGH FOR THE DAY).

EARLIER CONCERNS...SINCE AN EXCESSIVE HEAT WATCH WAS POSTED FOR ALL
THE DESERTS BETWEEN SOUTHEAST CA TO SOUTH CENTRAL AZ...WAS HOW MUCH
INSOLATION WOULD BE REDUCED...FROM THE CLOUDS/HUMIDITY...CAUSING A
REDUCTION IN THE POTENTIAL SURFACE HEATING. OBVIOUSLY TODAY THE
CLOUDS MADE LITTLE DIFERENCE IN THE STRONG EARLY DAY WARM-UP.
THEREFORE SINCE THERE IS NO MAJOR MOISTURE SURGE FORECAST TONIGHT
AND WEDNESDAY...WE DECIDED TO UPGRADE THE EXCESSIVE HEAT WATCH TO A
WARNING FOR ALL THE LOWER DESERTS BETWEEN IMPERIAL CALIFORNIA AND
PHOENIX ARIZONA.

VARIABLE CLOUDS AND EVEN A FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAY BE IN
THE OFFING OVER THE MOUNTAINS EAST OF PHOENIX ON WED...WITH PERHAPS
A LATE DAY CONVECTIVE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY DESCENDING ONTO THE DESERTS
WITH POSSIBLE BLOWING DUST.

ON THURSDAY...A DRIER AIRMASS MOVES INTO THE REGION FROM THE EAST.
500 MB TEMPERATURES WARM TO AN UNSEASONABLE MINUS 4 DEG C INDICATING
STABILITY AND A REDUCED THREAT FOR MOUNTAIN AFTERNOON CONVECTION.
PRECIP PROBABILITIES WERE ALSO LOWERED IN THE MOUNTAINS EAST OF
PHOENIX.

FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...
COOLER AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST THIS PERIOD AS HIGHER
HUMIDITIES ARE EXPECTED...ALONG WITH A BETTER THREAT FOR AFTERNOON
AND EVENING CONVECTION.

&&

.CLIMATE...

RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURE FOR THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK.

CITY        JULY 22       JULY 23      JULY 24
----        -------       -------      -------
PHOENIX   116 IN 2006   114 IN 2006  114 IN 2006
YUMA      116 IN 2006   115 IN 1959  117 IN 1943

&&

.AVIATION...
SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA INCLUDING KPHX...KIWA...AND KSDL...
MID AND HIGH CLOUDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE THROUGH TONIGHT. GIVEN
THE RELATIVELY DRY CONDITIONS AT THE SURFACE...AREAS OF VIRGA ARE A
POSSIBILITY...WHICH MAY PRODUCE LOCALIZED GUSTY WINDS.
HOWEVER...WINDS WILL GENERALLY REMAIN LIGHT AND DIURNAL THROUGH THE
TAF PERIOD.

SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA AND SOUTHWEST ARIZONA INCLUDING KIPL AND KBLH...
NO AVIATION IMPACTS EXPECTED WITH LIGHT WINDS AND OCCASIONAL MID AND
HIGH CLOUDS.

AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDED TAFS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY...
STRONG HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN THE PREDOMINANT WEATHER FEATURE
ACROSS THE REGION. BIGGEST IMPACT WILL BE THE HEAT...WITH ABOVE
NORMAL TEMPERATURES LIKELY THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE TREND WILL
BE TOWARDS INCREASING MOISTURE EACH DAY...THOUGH THUNDERSTORMS WILL
MAINLY BE CONCENTRATED IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF EASTERN AZ. ACROSS
THE LOWER DESERTS OF AZ...ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE
POSSIBLE...PARTICULARLY DURING THE WEEKEND...THOUGH THE GREATER
THREAT IS FOR OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES CAPABLE OF PRODUCING STRONG WIND
GUSTS. FURTHER WEST ACROSS SE CA...THE CHANCE FOR RAIN AND
THUNDERSTORM IMPACTS WILL BE EVEN LOWER. MINIMUM HUMIDITIES WILL
GENERALLY FALL INTO A 15-20 PERCENT RANGE WITH GOOD OVERNIGHT
RECOVERY.

&&

.PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

AZ...EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING FROM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY
EVENING AZZ020>023-025>028.

CA...EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING FROM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY
EVENING CAZ031>033.

&&

$$

VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/PHOENIX

DISCUSSION...VASQUEZ
CLIMATE...MO
AVIATION....HIRSCH
FIRE WEATHER...HIRSCH











000
FXUS65 KPSR 222159
AFDPSR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PHOENIX AZ
300 PM MST TUE JUL 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A STRONG HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP OVER THE REGION
THIS WEEK...RESULTING IN VERY HOT TEMPERATURES WEDNESDAY THROUGH
FRIDAY. AT SAME TIME...MONSOON MOISTURE WILL SLOWLY INCREASE OVER
THE AREA...WITH OCCASIONAL CLOUDINESS AT TIMES. INCREASED
MOISTURE...COMBINED WITH SEVERAL WEAK WEATHER DISTURBANCES FROM
MEXICO...ARE FORECAST TO INCREASE THE CHANCE OF AFTERNOON AND
EVENING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...MAINLY ACROSS ARIZONA...THIS
WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...
A STRONG WARM-UP WAS UNDERWAY ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA...INCLUDING
THE SOUTH CENTRAL AZ DESERTS WHERE VARIABLE CLOUDS HAD DEVELOPED
EARLIER IN THE DAY...AND AN EARLY 109 DEG F TEMP IN PHOENIX AT 1245
PM (WHICH WAS OUR FORECAST HIGH FOR THE DAY).

EARLIER CONCERNS...SINCE AN EXCESSIVE HEAT WATCH WAS POSTED FOR ALL
THE DESERTS BETWEEN SOUTHEAST CA TO SOUTH CENTRAL AZ...WAS HOW MUCH
INSOLATION WOULD BE REDUCED...FROM THE CLOUDS/HUMIDITY...CAUSING A
REDUCTION IN THE POTENTIAL SURFACE HEATING. OBVIOUSLY TODAY THE
CLOUDS MADE LITTLE DIFERENCE IN THE STRONG EARLY DAY WARM-UP.
THEREFORE SINCE THERE IS NO MAJOR MOISTURE SURGE FORECAST TONIGHT
AND WEDNESDAY...WE DECIDED TO UPGRADE THE EXCESSIVE HEAT WATCH TO A
WARNING FOR ALL THE LOWER DESERTS BETWEEN IMPERIAL CALIFORNIA AND
PHOENIX ARIZONA.

VARIABLE CLOUDS AND EVEN A FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAY BE IN
THE OFFING OVER THE MOUNTAINS EAST OF PHOENIX ON WED...WITH PERHAPS
A LATE DAY CONVECTIVE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY DESCENDING ONTO THE DESERTS
WITH POSSIBLE BLOWING DUST.

ON THURSDAY...A DRIER AIRMASS MOVES INTO THE REGION FROM THE EAST.
500 MB TEMPERATURES WARM TO AN UNSEASONABLE MINUS 4 DEG C INDICATING
STABILITY AND A REDUCED THREAT FOR MOUNTAIN AFTERNOON CONVECTION.
PRECIP PROBABILITIES WERE ALSO LOWERED IN THE MOUNTAINS EAST OF
PHOENIX.

FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...
COOLER AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST THIS PERIOD AS HIGHER
HUMIDITIES ARE EXPECTED...ALONG WITH A BETTER THREAT FOR AFTERNOON
AND EVENING CONVECTION.

&&

.CLIMATE...

RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURE FOR THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK.

CITY        JULY 22       JULY 23      JULY 24
----        -------       -------      -------
PHOENIX   116 IN 2006   114 IN 2006  114 IN 2006
YUMA      116 IN 2006   115 IN 1959  117 IN 1943

&&

.AVIATION...
SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA INCLUDING KPHX...KIWA...AND KSDL...
MID AND HIGH CLOUDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE THROUGH TONIGHT. GIVEN
THE RELATIVELY DRY CONDITIONS AT THE SURFACE...AREAS OF VIRGA ARE A
POSSIBILITY...WHICH MAY PRODUCE LOCALIZED GUSTY WINDS.
HOWEVER...WINDS WILL GENERALLY REMAIN LIGHT AND DIURNAL THROUGH THE
TAF PERIOD.

SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA AND SOUTHWEST ARIZONA INCLUDING KIPL AND KBLH...
NO AVIATION IMPACTS EXPECTED WITH LIGHT WINDS AND OCCASIONAL MID AND
HIGH CLOUDS.

AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDED TAFS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY...
STRONG HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN THE PREDOMINANT WEATHER FEATURE
ACROSS THE REGION. BIGGEST IMPACT WILL BE THE HEAT...WITH ABOVE
NORMAL TEMPERATURES LIKELY THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE TREND WILL
BE TOWARDS INCREASING MOISTURE EACH DAY...THOUGH THUNDERSTORMS WILL
MAINLY BE CONCENTRATED IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF EASTERN AZ. ACROSS
THE LOWER DESERTS OF AZ...ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE
POSSIBLE...PARTICULARLY DURING THE WEEKEND...THOUGH THE GREATER
THREAT IS FOR OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES CAPABLE OF PRODUCING STRONG WIND
GUSTS. FURTHER WEST ACROSS SE CA...THE CHANCE FOR RAIN AND
THUNDERSTORM IMPACTS WILL BE EVEN LOWER. MINIMUM HUMIDITIES WILL
GENERALLY FALL INTO A 15-20 PERCENT RANGE WITH GOOD OVERNIGHT
RECOVERY.

&&

.PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

AZ...EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING FROM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY
EVENING AZZ020>023-025>028.

CA...EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING FROM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY
EVENING CAZ031>033.

&&

$$

VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/PHOENIX

DISCUSSION...VASQUEZ
CLIMATE...MO
AVIATION....HIRSCH
FIRE WEATHER...HIRSCH











000
FXUS65 KPSR 222159
AFDPSR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PHOENIX AZ
300 PM MST TUE JUL 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A STRONG HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP OVER THE REGION
THIS WEEK...RESULTING IN VERY HOT TEMPERATURES WEDNESDAY THROUGH
FRIDAY. AT SAME TIME...MONSOON MOISTURE WILL SLOWLY INCREASE OVER
THE AREA...WITH OCCASIONAL CLOUDINESS AT TIMES. INCREASED
MOISTURE...COMBINED WITH SEVERAL WEAK WEATHER DISTURBANCES FROM
MEXICO...ARE FORECAST TO INCREASE THE CHANCE OF AFTERNOON AND
EVENING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...MAINLY ACROSS ARIZONA...THIS
WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...
A STRONG WARM-UP WAS UNDERWAY ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA...INCLUDING
THE SOUTH CENTRAL AZ DESERTS WHERE VARIABLE CLOUDS HAD DEVELOPED
EARLIER IN THE DAY...AND AN EARLY 109 DEG F TEMP IN PHOENIX AT 1245
PM (WHICH WAS OUR FORECAST HIGH FOR THE DAY).

EARLIER CONCERNS...SINCE AN EXCESSIVE HEAT WATCH WAS POSTED FOR ALL
THE DESERTS BETWEEN SOUTHEAST CA TO SOUTH CENTRAL AZ...WAS HOW MUCH
INSOLATION WOULD BE REDUCED...FROM THE CLOUDS/HUMIDITY...CAUSING A
REDUCTION IN THE POTENTIAL SURFACE HEATING. OBVIOUSLY TODAY THE
CLOUDS MADE LITTLE DIFERENCE IN THE STRONG EARLY DAY WARM-UP.
THEREFORE SINCE THERE IS NO MAJOR MOISTURE SURGE FORECAST TONIGHT
AND WEDNESDAY...WE DECIDED TO UPGRADE THE EXCESSIVE HEAT WATCH TO A
WARNING FOR ALL THE LOWER DESERTS BETWEEN IMPERIAL CALIFORNIA AND
PHOENIX ARIZONA.

VARIABLE CLOUDS AND EVEN A FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAY BE IN
THE OFFING OVER THE MOUNTAINS EAST OF PHOENIX ON WED...WITH PERHAPS
A LATE DAY CONVECTIVE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY DESCENDING ONTO THE DESERTS
WITH POSSIBLE BLOWING DUST.

ON THURSDAY...A DRIER AIRMASS MOVES INTO THE REGION FROM THE EAST.
500 MB TEMPERATURES WARM TO AN UNSEASONABLE MINUS 4 DEG C INDICATING
STABILITY AND A REDUCED THREAT FOR MOUNTAIN AFTERNOON CONVECTION.
PRECIP PROBABILITIES WERE ALSO LOWERED IN THE MOUNTAINS EAST OF
PHOENIX.

FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...
COOLER AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST THIS PERIOD AS HIGHER
HUMIDITIES ARE EXPECTED...ALONG WITH A BETTER THREAT FOR AFTERNOON
AND EVENING CONVECTION.

&&

.CLIMATE...

RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURE FOR THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK.

CITY        JULY 22       JULY 23      JULY 24
----        -------       -------      -------
PHOENIX   116 IN 2006   114 IN 2006  114 IN 2006
YUMA      116 IN 2006   115 IN 1959  117 IN 1943

&&

.AVIATION...
SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA INCLUDING KPHX...KIWA...AND KSDL...
MID AND HIGH CLOUDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE THROUGH TONIGHT. GIVEN
THE RELATIVELY DRY CONDITIONS AT THE SURFACE...AREAS OF VIRGA ARE A
POSSIBILITY...WHICH MAY PRODUCE LOCALIZED GUSTY WINDS.
HOWEVER...WINDS WILL GENERALLY REMAIN LIGHT AND DIURNAL THROUGH THE
TAF PERIOD.

SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA AND SOUTHWEST ARIZONA INCLUDING KIPL AND KBLH...
NO AVIATION IMPACTS EXPECTED WITH LIGHT WINDS AND OCCASIONAL MID AND
HIGH CLOUDS.

AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDED TAFS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY...
STRONG HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN THE PREDOMINANT WEATHER FEATURE
ACROSS THE REGION. BIGGEST IMPACT WILL BE THE HEAT...WITH ABOVE
NORMAL TEMPERATURES LIKELY THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE TREND WILL
BE TOWARDS INCREASING MOISTURE EACH DAY...THOUGH THUNDERSTORMS WILL
MAINLY BE CONCENTRATED IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF EASTERN AZ. ACROSS
THE LOWER DESERTS OF AZ...ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE
POSSIBLE...PARTICULARLY DURING THE WEEKEND...THOUGH THE GREATER
THREAT IS FOR OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES CAPABLE OF PRODUCING STRONG WIND
GUSTS. FURTHER WEST ACROSS SE CA...THE CHANCE FOR RAIN AND
THUNDERSTORM IMPACTS WILL BE EVEN LOWER. MINIMUM HUMIDITIES WILL
GENERALLY FALL INTO A 15-20 PERCENT RANGE WITH GOOD OVERNIGHT
RECOVERY.

&&

.PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

AZ...EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING FROM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY
EVENING AZZ020>023-025>028.

CA...EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING FROM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY
EVENING CAZ031>033.

&&

$$

VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/PHOENIX

DISCUSSION...VASQUEZ
CLIMATE...MO
AVIATION....HIRSCH
FIRE WEATHER...HIRSCH











000
FXUS65 KPSR 222159
AFDPSR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PHOENIX AZ
300 PM MST TUE JUL 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A STRONG HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP OVER THE REGION
THIS WEEK...RESULTING IN VERY HOT TEMPERATURES WEDNESDAY THROUGH
FRIDAY. AT SAME TIME...MONSOON MOISTURE WILL SLOWLY INCREASE OVER
THE AREA...WITH OCCASIONAL CLOUDINESS AT TIMES. INCREASED
MOISTURE...COMBINED WITH SEVERAL WEAK WEATHER DISTURBANCES FROM
MEXICO...ARE FORECAST TO INCREASE THE CHANCE OF AFTERNOON AND
EVENING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...MAINLY ACROSS ARIZONA...THIS
WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...
A STRONG WARM-UP WAS UNDERWAY ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA...INCLUDING
THE SOUTH CENTRAL AZ DESERTS WHERE VARIABLE CLOUDS HAD DEVELOPED
EARLIER IN THE DAY...AND AN EARLY 109 DEG F TEMP IN PHOENIX AT 1245
PM (WHICH WAS OUR FORECAST HIGH FOR THE DAY).

EARLIER CONCERNS...SINCE AN EXCESSIVE HEAT WATCH WAS POSTED FOR ALL
THE DESERTS BETWEEN SOUTHEAST CA TO SOUTH CENTRAL AZ...WAS HOW MUCH
INSOLATION WOULD BE REDUCED...FROM THE CLOUDS/HUMIDITY...CAUSING A
REDUCTION IN THE POTENTIAL SURFACE HEATING. OBVIOUSLY TODAY THE
CLOUDS MADE LITTLE DIFERENCE IN THE STRONG EARLY DAY WARM-UP.
THEREFORE SINCE THERE IS NO MAJOR MOISTURE SURGE FORECAST TONIGHT
AND WEDNESDAY...WE DECIDED TO UPGRADE THE EXCESSIVE HEAT WATCH TO A
WARNING FOR ALL THE LOWER DESERTS BETWEEN IMPERIAL CALIFORNIA AND
PHOENIX ARIZONA.

VARIABLE CLOUDS AND EVEN A FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAY BE IN
THE OFFING OVER THE MOUNTAINS EAST OF PHOENIX ON WED...WITH PERHAPS
A LATE DAY CONVECTIVE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY DESCENDING ONTO THE DESERTS
WITH POSSIBLE BLOWING DUST.

ON THURSDAY...A DRIER AIRMASS MOVES INTO THE REGION FROM THE EAST.
500 MB TEMPERATURES WARM TO AN UNSEASONABLE MINUS 4 DEG C INDICATING
STABILITY AND A REDUCED THREAT FOR MOUNTAIN AFTERNOON CONVECTION.
PRECIP PROBABILITIES WERE ALSO LOWERED IN THE MOUNTAINS EAST OF
PHOENIX.

FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...
COOLER AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST THIS PERIOD AS HIGHER
HUMIDITIES ARE EXPECTED...ALONG WITH A BETTER THREAT FOR AFTERNOON
AND EVENING CONVECTION.

&&

.CLIMATE...

RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURE FOR THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK.

CITY        JULY 22       JULY 23      JULY 24
----        -------       -------      -------
PHOENIX   116 IN 2006   114 IN 2006  114 IN 2006
YUMA      116 IN 2006   115 IN 1959  117 IN 1943

&&

.AVIATION...
SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA INCLUDING KPHX...KIWA...AND KSDL...
MID AND HIGH CLOUDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE THROUGH TONIGHT. GIVEN
THE RELATIVELY DRY CONDITIONS AT THE SURFACE...AREAS OF VIRGA ARE A
POSSIBILITY...WHICH MAY PRODUCE LOCALIZED GUSTY WINDS.
HOWEVER...WINDS WILL GENERALLY REMAIN LIGHT AND DIURNAL THROUGH THE
TAF PERIOD.

SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA AND SOUTHWEST ARIZONA INCLUDING KIPL AND KBLH...
NO AVIATION IMPACTS EXPECTED WITH LIGHT WINDS AND OCCASIONAL MID AND
HIGH CLOUDS.

AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDED TAFS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY...
STRONG HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN THE PREDOMINANT WEATHER FEATURE
ACROSS THE REGION. BIGGEST IMPACT WILL BE THE HEAT...WITH ABOVE
NORMAL TEMPERATURES LIKELY THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE TREND WILL
BE TOWARDS INCREASING MOISTURE EACH DAY...THOUGH THUNDERSTORMS WILL
MAINLY BE CONCENTRATED IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF EASTERN AZ. ACROSS
THE LOWER DESERTS OF AZ...ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE
POSSIBLE...PARTICULARLY DURING THE WEEKEND...THOUGH THE GREATER
THREAT IS FOR OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES CAPABLE OF PRODUCING STRONG WIND
GUSTS. FURTHER WEST ACROSS SE CA...THE CHANCE FOR RAIN AND
THUNDERSTORM IMPACTS WILL BE EVEN LOWER. MINIMUM HUMIDITIES WILL
GENERALLY FALL INTO A 15-20 PERCENT RANGE WITH GOOD OVERNIGHT
RECOVERY.

&&

.PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

AZ...EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING FROM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY
EVENING AZZ020>023-025>028.

CA...EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING FROM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY
EVENING CAZ031>033.

&&

$$

VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/PHOENIX

DISCUSSION...VASQUEZ
CLIMATE...MO
AVIATION....HIRSCH
FIRE WEATHER...HIRSCH











000
FXUS65 KTWC 222101
AFDTWC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ
201 PM MST TUE JUL 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...EXPECT ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS MOSTLY EAST
AND SOUTH OF TUCSON THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THIS WEEK. MUCH HOTTER
TEMPERATURES WILL OCCUR WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY. AN INCREASE IN
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY SHOULD OCCUR LATE IN THE WEEK AND INTO THE
WEEKEND.

&&

.DISCUSSION...WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS HIGH PRESSURE JUST TO OUR
EAST WITH THIS MORNINGS KTWC SOUNDING SHOWING SOUTHERLY FLOW AT THE
MID TO UPPER LEVELS. THE SOUNDING SHOWED A PWAT OF 1.18 INCHES...
WITH THE BULK OF THIS MOISTURE COMING FROM THE 625-475MB LAYER.
OTHERWISE...THE LOWER LEVELS WERE QUITE DRY...AS WELL AS A
PRONOUNCED DRY LAYER AT AROUND 450MB...WHICH COINCIDED WITH AN
INVERSION/CAP. THAT SAID...THE SOUNDING WAS STABLE WITH VERY LITTLE
PROSPECTS FOR THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...WE SHOULD
STILL SEE ISOLATED ACTIVITY MAINLY ALONG THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER
LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND INTO THE EVENING HOURS AS WELL AS OVER THE
WHITE MOUNTAINS OF GREENLEE COUNTY.

A DEFINITE UPSWING IN THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL OCCUR WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS THE HIGH REPOSITIONS TO A MORE FAVORABLE
LOCATION OVER COLORADO. BOTH THE U OF A WRF/GFS AND WRF/NAM SEEM TO
SHOW THE BEST DEPICTION OF WHAT IS EXPECTED TODAY AND WEDNESDAY...
WITH ISOLATED TO SCATTERED ACTIVITY DEVELOPING IN COCHISE COUNTY AND
TRYING TO SPREAD TO THE WEST OR NORTHWEST LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND
EARLY EVENING BUT NOT QUITE BEING ABLE TO MAKE IT TO THE TUCSON
AREA. FOR WEDNESDAY IT SHOWS ACTIVITY BLOSSOMING GENERALLY OVER
CENTRAL AREAS...INCLUDING TUCSON AND SPREADING WEST INTO THE WESTERN
DESERTS. HOWEVER...THIS WILL BE SHORT LIVED AS MODELS THEN PROG DRY
AIR MOVING IN FROM THE EAST ON THURSDAY...WHICH WILL REDUCE THE POP
FORECAST TO JUST ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS FOR MOST PLACES AND ISOLATED
TO LOW END SCATTERED COVERAGE FOR THE MOUNTAIN TOPS.

A SLIGHT INCREASE IN THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED FOR FRIDAY...BUT MOSTLY
TO AREAS BETWEEN TUCSON AND THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER. THE MONSOON
SHOULD KICK BACK IN THIS WEEKEND IN EARNEST...WITH THE HIGH
POSITIONED JUST TO OUR NORTH OR NORTHEAST WITH A LONG FETCH OF
NORTHEAST TO EAST MID LEVEL FLOW SETTING UP ON SATURDAY AND EAST TO
SOUTHEAST FOR SUNDAY. AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE THROUGH
SOUTHERN ARIZONA LATE SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY WHICH SHOULD HELP TO
ENHANCE THUNDERSTORM CHANCES. AS A RESULT...LOOKING AT SCATTERED
CATEGORY POPS FOR MOST AREAS BOTH SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...BUT WITH AN
EMPHASIS FOR AREAS BETWEEN TUCSON AND NOGALES...AS WELL AS THE
MOUNTAIN TOPS. THIS IS ALL IN RESPONSE TO THE HIGH BEING GENERALLY
TO OUR NORTHEAST OVER EITHER THE FOUR CORNERS OR NORTHERN NEW
MEXICO.

BY EARLY NEXT WEEK ANOTHER DECREASE IN RAIN CHANCES AS THE HIGH SETS
UP NEARLY OVERHEAD. STILL ENOUGH MOISTURE AROUND FOR ISOLATED
DESERT/VALLEY POPS AND SCATTERED FOR MOUNTAIN LOCATIONS.

HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL GENERALLY BE 8 TO 10 DEGS ABOVE NORMAL FOR
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...THEN 5 TO 7 DEGS ABOVE NORMAL FOR FRIDAY
AND SATURDAY...THEN 3 TO 5 DEGS ABOVE NORMAL SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.
LOWS WILL GENERALLY BE 4 TO 6 DEGS ABOVE NORMAL EACH MORNING.

&&

.AVIATION...VALID THRU 23/18Z.
ISOLATED -TSRA/-SHRA WILL OCCUR MOSTLY EAST AND SOUTH OF KTUS THIS
AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING. BRIEF WIND GUSTS TO NEAR 35 KTS
MAY OCCUR WITH THIS ACTIVITY. OTHERWISE...EXPECT MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES
WEST OF KTUS AND A FEW TO BROKEN CLOUDS MAINLY ABOVE 10K FT AGL EAST
TO SOUTH OF KTUS INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING. AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT
UPDATED FOR TAF AMENDMENTS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...ISOLATED SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IS
EXPECTED STARTING THIS AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY SOUTH AND EAST OF
TUCSON. THE BEST CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL SHIFT A
BIT WESTWARD ON WEDNESDAY TO INCLUDE MUCH OF PIMA COUNTY. THERE WILL
PERHAPS BE A BRIEF DOWNTURN IN STORM COVERAGE THURSDAY BEFORE A MORE
TYPICAL MONSOON PATTERN MOVES IN LATE THIS WEEK AND THIS WEEKEND
WITH SCATTERED MAINLY AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL PREVAIL BY THIS WEEKEND. EXPECT STRONG...GUSTY
AND ERRATIC WINDS WITH THE STRONGER THUNDERSTORMS. HOTTER
TEMPERATURES WILL ALSO OCCUR THROUGH THURSDAY FOLLOWED BY A COOLING
TREND BY THE WEEKEND.

&&

.TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...YOUTUBE...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/TUCSON

PUBLIC...MOLLERE
AVIATION/FIRE WEATHER...BROST








000
FXUS65 KTWC 222101
AFDTWC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ
201 PM MST TUE JUL 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...EXPECT ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS MOSTLY EAST
AND SOUTH OF TUCSON THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THIS WEEK. MUCH HOTTER
TEMPERATURES WILL OCCUR WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY. AN INCREASE IN
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY SHOULD OCCUR LATE IN THE WEEK AND INTO THE
WEEKEND.

&&

.DISCUSSION...WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS HIGH PRESSURE JUST TO OUR
EAST WITH THIS MORNINGS KTWC SOUNDING SHOWING SOUTHERLY FLOW AT THE
MID TO UPPER LEVELS. THE SOUNDING SHOWED A PWAT OF 1.18 INCHES...
WITH THE BULK OF THIS MOISTURE COMING FROM THE 625-475MB LAYER.
OTHERWISE...THE LOWER LEVELS WERE QUITE DRY...AS WELL AS A
PRONOUNCED DRY LAYER AT AROUND 450MB...WHICH COINCIDED WITH AN
INVERSION/CAP. THAT SAID...THE SOUNDING WAS STABLE WITH VERY LITTLE
PROSPECTS FOR THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...WE SHOULD
STILL SEE ISOLATED ACTIVITY MAINLY ALONG THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER
LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND INTO THE EVENING HOURS AS WELL AS OVER THE
WHITE MOUNTAINS OF GREENLEE COUNTY.

A DEFINITE UPSWING IN THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL OCCUR WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS THE HIGH REPOSITIONS TO A MORE FAVORABLE
LOCATION OVER COLORADO. BOTH THE U OF A WRF/GFS AND WRF/NAM SEEM TO
SHOW THE BEST DEPICTION OF WHAT IS EXPECTED TODAY AND WEDNESDAY...
WITH ISOLATED TO SCATTERED ACTIVITY DEVELOPING IN COCHISE COUNTY AND
TRYING TO SPREAD TO THE WEST OR NORTHWEST LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND
EARLY EVENING BUT NOT QUITE BEING ABLE TO MAKE IT TO THE TUCSON
AREA. FOR WEDNESDAY IT SHOWS ACTIVITY BLOSSOMING GENERALLY OVER
CENTRAL AREAS...INCLUDING TUCSON AND SPREADING WEST INTO THE WESTERN
DESERTS. HOWEVER...THIS WILL BE SHORT LIVED AS MODELS THEN PROG DRY
AIR MOVING IN FROM THE EAST ON THURSDAY...WHICH WILL REDUCE THE POP
FORECAST TO JUST ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS FOR MOST PLACES AND ISOLATED
TO LOW END SCATTERED COVERAGE FOR THE MOUNTAIN TOPS.

A SLIGHT INCREASE IN THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED FOR FRIDAY...BUT MOSTLY
TO AREAS BETWEEN TUCSON AND THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER. THE MONSOON
SHOULD KICK BACK IN THIS WEEKEND IN EARNEST...WITH THE HIGH
POSITIONED JUST TO OUR NORTH OR NORTHEAST WITH A LONG FETCH OF
NORTHEAST TO EAST MID LEVEL FLOW SETTING UP ON SATURDAY AND EAST TO
SOUTHEAST FOR SUNDAY. AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE THROUGH
SOUTHERN ARIZONA LATE SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY WHICH SHOULD HELP TO
ENHANCE THUNDERSTORM CHANCES. AS A RESULT...LOOKING AT SCATTERED
CATEGORY POPS FOR MOST AREAS BOTH SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...BUT WITH AN
EMPHASIS FOR AREAS BETWEEN TUCSON AND NOGALES...AS WELL AS THE
MOUNTAIN TOPS. THIS IS ALL IN RESPONSE TO THE HIGH BEING GENERALLY
TO OUR NORTHEAST OVER EITHER THE FOUR CORNERS OR NORTHERN NEW
MEXICO.

BY EARLY NEXT WEEK ANOTHER DECREASE IN RAIN CHANCES AS THE HIGH SETS
UP NEARLY OVERHEAD. STILL ENOUGH MOISTURE AROUND FOR ISOLATED
DESERT/VALLEY POPS AND SCATTERED FOR MOUNTAIN LOCATIONS.

HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL GENERALLY BE 8 TO 10 DEGS ABOVE NORMAL FOR
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...THEN 5 TO 7 DEGS ABOVE NORMAL FOR FRIDAY
AND SATURDAY...THEN 3 TO 5 DEGS ABOVE NORMAL SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.
LOWS WILL GENERALLY BE 4 TO 6 DEGS ABOVE NORMAL EACH MORNING.

&&

.AVIATION...VALID THRU 23/18Z.
ISOLATED -TSRA/-SHRA WILL OCCUR MOSTLY EAST AND SOUTH OF KTUS THIS
AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING. BRIEF WIND GUSTS TO NEAR 35 KTS
MAY OCCUR WITH THIS ACTIVITY. OTHERWISE...EXPECT MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES
WEST OF KTUS AND A FEW TO BROKEN CLOUDS MAINLY ABOVE 10K FT AGL EAST
TO SOUTH OF KTUS INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING. AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT
UPDATED FOR TAF AMENDMENTS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...ISOLATED SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IS
EXPECTED STARTING THIS AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY SOUTH AND EAST OF
TUCSON. THE BEST CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL SHIFT A
BIT WESTWARD ON WEDNESDAY TO INCLUDE MUCH OF PIMA COUNTY. THERE WILL
PERHAPS BE A BRIEF DOWNTURN IN STORM COVERAGE THURSDAY BEFORE A MORE
TYPICAL MONSOON PATTERN MOVES IN LATE THIS WEEK AND THIS WEEKEND
WITH SCATTERED MAINLY AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL PREVAIL BY THIS WEEKEND. EXPECT STRONG...GUSTY
AND ERRATIC WINDS WITH THE STRONGER THUNDERSTORMS. HOTTER
TEMPERATURES WILL ALSO OCCUR THROUGH THURSDAY FOLLOWED BY A COOLING
TREND BY THE WEEKEND.

&&

.TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...YOUTUBE...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/TUCSON

PUBLIC...MOLLERE
AVIATION/FIRE WEATHER...BROST








000
FXUS65 KTWC 222101
AFDTWC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ
201 PM MST TUE JUL 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...EXPECT ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS MOSTLY EAST
AND SOUTH OF TUCSON THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THIS WEEK. MUCH HOTTER
TEMPERATURES WILL OCCUR WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY. AN INCREASE IN
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY SHOULD OCCUR LATE IN THE WEEK AND INTO THE
WEEKEND.

&&

.DISCUSSION...WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS HIGH PRESSURE JUST TO OUR
EAST WITH THIS MORNINGS KTWC SOUNDING SHOWING SOUTHERLY FLOW AT THE
MID TO UPPER LEVELS. THE SOUNDING SHOWED A PWAT OF 1.18 INCHES...
WITH THE BULK OF THIS MOISTURE COMING FROM THE 625-475MB LAYER.
OTHERWISE...THE LOWER LEVELS WERE QUITE DRY...AS WELL AS A
PRONOUNCED DRY LAYER AT AROUND 450MB...WHICH COINCIDED WITH AN
INVERSION/CAP. THAT SAID...THE SOUNDING WAS STABLE WITH VERY LITTLE
PROSPECTS FOR THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...WE SHOULD
STILL SEE ISOLATED ACTIVITY MAINLY ALONG THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER
LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND INTO THE EVENING HOURS AS WELL AS OVER THE
WHITE MOUNTAINS OF GREENLEE COUNTY.

A DEFINITE UPSWING IN THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL OCCUR WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS THE HIGH REPOSITIONS TO A MORE FAVORABLE
LOCATION OVER COLORADO. BOTH THE U OF A WRF/GFS AND WRF/NAM SEEM TO
SHOW THE BEST DEPICTION OF WHAT IS EXPECTED TODAY AND WEDNESDAY...
WITH ISOLATED TO SCATTERED ACTIVITY DEVELOPING IN COCHISE COUNTY AND
TRYING TO SPREAD TO THE WEST OR NORTHWEST LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND
EARLY EVENING BUT NOT QUITE BEING ABLE TO MAKE IT TO THE TUCSON
AREA. FOR WEDNESDAY IT SHOWS ACTIVITY BLOSSOMING GENERALLY OVER
CENTRAL AREAS...INCLUDING TUCSON AND SPREADING WEST INTO THE WESTERN
DESERTS. HOWEVER...THIS WILL BE SHORT LIVED AS MODELS THEN PROG DRY
AIR MOVING IN FROM THE EAST ON THURSDAY...WHICH WILL REDUCE THE POP
FORECAST TO JUST ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS FOR MOST PLACES AND ISOLATED
TO LOW END SCATTERED COVERAGE FOR THE MOUNTAIN TOPS.

A SLIGHT INCREASE IN THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED FOR FRIDAY...BUT MOSTLY
TO AREAS BETWEEN TUCSON AND THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER. THE MONSOON
SHOULD KICK BACK IN THIS WEEKEND IN EARNEST...WITH THE HIGH
POSITIONED JUST TO OUR NORTH OR NORTHEAST WITH A LONG FETCH OF
NORTHEAST TO EAST MID LEVEL FLOW SETTING UP ON SATURDAY AND EAST TO
SOUTHEAST FOR SUNDAY. AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE THROUGH
SOUTHERN ARIZONA LATE SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY WHICH SHOULD HELP TO
ENHANCE THUNDERSTORM CHANCES. AS A RESULT...LOOKING AT SCATTERED
CATEGORY POPS FOR MOST AREAS BOTH SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...BUT WITH AN
EMPHASIS FOR AREAS BETWEEN TUCSON AND NOGALES...AS WELL AS THE
MOUNTAIN TOPS. THIS IS ALL IN RESPONSE TO THE HIGH BEING GENERALLY
TO OUR NORTHEAST OVER EITHER THE FOUR CORNERS OR NORTHERN NEW
MEXICO.

BY EARLY NEXT WEEK ANOTHER DECREASE IN RAIN CHANCES AS THE HIGH SETS
UP NEARLY OVERHEAD. STILL ENOUGH MOISTURE AROUND FOR ISOLATED
DESERT/VALLEY POPS AND SCATTERED FOR MOUNTAIN LOCATIONS.

HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL GENERALLY BE 8 TO 10 DEGS ABOVE NORMAL FOR
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...THEN 5 TO 7 DEGS ABOVE NORMAL FOR FRIDAY
AND SATURDAY...THEN 3 TO 5 DEGS ABOVE NORMAL SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.
LOWS WILL GENERALLY BE 4 TO 6 DEGS ABOVE NORMAL EACH MORNING.

&&

.AVIATION...VALID THRU 23/18Z.
ISOLATED -TSRA/-SHRA WILL OCCUR MOSTLY EAST AND SOUTH OF KTUS THIS
AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING. BRIEF WIND GUSTS TO NEAR 35 KTS
MAY OCCUR WITH THIS ACTIVITY. OTHERWISE...EXPECT MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES
WEST OF KTUS AND A FEW TO BROKEN CLOUDS MAINLY ABOVE 10K FT AGL EAST
TO SOUTH OF KTUS INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING. AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT
UPDATED FOR TAF AMENDMENTS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...ISOLATED SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IS
EXPECTED STARTING THIS AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY SOUTH AND EAST OF
TUCSON. THE BEST CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL SHIFT A
BIT WESTWARD ON WEDNESDAY TO INCLUDE MUCH OF PIMA COUNTY. THERE WILL
PERHAPS BE A BRIEF DOWNTURN IN STORM COVERAGE THURSDAY BEFORE A MORE
TYPICAL MONSOON PATTERN MOVES IN LATE THIS WEEK AND THIS WEEKEND
WITH SCATTERED MAINLY AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL PREVAIL BY THIS WEEKEND. EXPECT STRONG...GUSTY
AND ERRATIC WINDS WITH THE STRONGER THUNDERSTORMS. HOTTER
TEMPERATURES WILL ALSO OCCUR THROUGH THURSDAY FOLLOWED BY A COOLING
TREND BY THE WEEKEND.

&&

.TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...YOUTUBE...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/TUCSON

PUBLIC...MOLLERE
AVIATION/FIRE WEATHER...BROST








000
FXUS65 KTWC 222101
AFDTWC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ
201 PM MST TUE JUL 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...EXPECT ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS MOSTLY EAST
AND SOUTH OF TUCSON THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THIS WEEK. MUCH HOTTER
TEMPERATURES WILL OCCUR WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY. AN INCREASE IN
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY SHOULD OCCUR LATE IN THE WEEK AND INTO THE
WEEKEND.

&&

.DISCUSSION...WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS HIGH PRESSURE JUST TO OUR
EAST WITH THIS MORNINGS KTWC SOUNDING SHOWING SOUTHERLY FLOW AT THE
MID TO UPPER LEVELS. THE SOUNDING SHOWED A PWAT OF 1.18 INCHES...
WITH THE BULK OF THIS MOISTURE COMING FROM THE 625-475MB LAYER.
OTHERWISE...THE LOWER LEVELS WERE QUITE DRY...AS WELL AS A
PRONOUNCED DRY LAYER AT AROUND 450MB...WHICH COINCIDED WITH AN
INVERSION/CAP. THAT SAID...THE SOUNDING WAS STABLE WITH VERY LITTLE
PROSPECTS FOR THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...WE SHOULD
STILL SEE ISOLATED ACTIVITY MAINLY ALONG THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER
LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND INTO THE EVENING HOURS AS WELL AS OVER THE
WHITE MOUNTAINS OF GREENLEE COUNTY.

A DEFINITE UPSWING IN THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL OCCUR WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS THE HIGH REPOSITIONS TO A MORE FAVORABLE
LOCATION OVER COLORADO. BOTH THE U OF A WRF/GFS AND WRF/NAM SEEM TO
SHOW THE BEST DEPICTION OF WHAT IS EXPECTED TODAY AND WEDNESDAY...
WITH ISOLATED TO SCATTERED ACTIVITY DEVELOPING IN COCHISE COUNTY AND
TRYING TO SPREAD TO THE WEST OR NORTHWEST LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND
EARLY EVENING BUT NOT QUITE BEING ABLE TO MAKE IT TO THE TUCSON
AREA. FOR WEDNESDAY IT SHOWS ACTIVITY BLOSSOMING GENERALLY OVER
CENTRAL AREAS...INCLUDING TUCSON AND SPREADING WEST INTO THE WESTERN
DESERTS. HOWEVER...THIS WILL BE SHORT LIVED AS MODELS THEN PROG DRY
AIR MOVING IN FROM THE EAST ON THURSDAY...WHICH WILL REDUCE THE POP
FORECAST TO JUST ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS FOR MOST PLACES AND ISOLATED
TO LOW END SCATTERED COVERAGE FOR THE MOUNTAIN TOPS.

A SLIGHT INCREASE IN THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED FOR FRIDAY...BUT MOSTLY
TO AREAS BETWEEN TUCSON AND THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER. THE MONSOON
SHOULD KICK BACK IN THIS WEEKEND IN EARNEST...WITH THE HIGH
POSITIONED JUST TO OUR NORTH OR NORTHEAST WITH A LONG FETCH OF
NORTHEAST TO EAST MID LEVEL FLOW SETTING UP ON SATURDAY AND EAST TO
SOUTHEAST FOR SUNDAY. AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE THROUGH
SOUTHERN ARIZONA LATE SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY WHICH SHOULD HELP TO
ENHANCE THUNDERSTORM CHANCES. AS A RESULT...LOOKING AT SCATTERED
CATEGORY POPS FOR MOST AREAS BOTH SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...BUT WITH AN
EMPHASIS FOR AREAS BETWEEN TUCSON AND NOGALES...AS WELL AS THE
MOUNTAIN TOPS. THIS IS ALL IN RESPONSE TO THE HIGH BEING GENERALLY
TO OUR NORTHEAST OVER EITHER THE FOUR CORNERS OR NORTHERN NEW
MEXICO.

BY EARLY NEXT WEEK ANOTHER DECREASE IN RAIN CHANCES AS THE HIGH SETS
UP NEARLY OVERHEAD. STILL ENOUGH MOISTURE AROUND FOR ISOLATED
DESERT/VALLEY POPS AND SCATTERED FOR MOUNTAIN LOCATIONS.

HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL GENERALLY BE 8 TO 10 DEGS ABOVE NORMAL FOR
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...THEN 5 TO 7 DEGS ABOVE NORMAL FOR FRIDAY
AND SATURDAY...THEN 3 TO 5 DEGS ABOVE NORMAL SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.
LOWS WILL GENERALLY BE 4 TO 6 DEGS ABOVE NORMAL EACH MORNING.

&&

.AVIATION...VALID THRU 23/18Z.
ISOLATED -TSRA/-SHRA WILL OCCUR MOSTLY EAST AND SOUTH OF KTUS THIS
AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING. BRIEF WIND GUSTS TO NEAR 35 KTS
MAY OCCUR WITH THIS ACTIVITY. OTHERWISE...EXPECT MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES
WEST OF KTUS AND A FEW TO BROKEN CLOUDS MAINLY ABOVE 10K FT AGL EAST
TO SOUTH OF KTUS INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING. AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT
UPDATED FOR TAF AMENDMENTS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...ISOLATED SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IS
EXPECTED STARTING THIS AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY SOUTH AND EAST OF
TUCSON. THE BEST CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL SHIFT A
BIT WESTWARD ON WEDNESDAY TO INCLUDE MUCH OF PIMA COUNTY. THERE WILL
PERHAPS BE A BRIEF DOWNTURN IN STORM COVERAGE THURSDAY BEFORE A MORE
TYPICAL MONSOON PATTERN MOVES IN LATE THIS WEEK AND THIS WEEKEND
WITH SCATTERED MAINLY AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL PREVAIL BY THIS WEEKEND. EXPECT STRONG...GUSTY
AND ERRATIC WINDS WITH THE STRONGER THUNDERSTORMS. HOTTER
TEMPERATURES WILL ALSO OCCUR THROUGH THURSDAY FOLLOWED BY A COOLING
TREND BY THE WEEKEND.

&&

.TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...YOUTUBE...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/TUCSON

PUBLIC...MOLLERE
AVIATION/FIRE WEATHER...BROST








000
FXUS65 KFGZ 221627
AFDFGZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ
930 AM MST TUE JUL 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE TODAY
AS SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE MOVES INTO THE REGION. EXPECT THE WARMEST
TEMPERATURES TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY WITH DAYTIME HIGH TEMPERATURES
RUNNING SEVERAL DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL...THEN DROPPING BACK TO NORMAL
BY THE WEEKEND.

&&

.DISCUSSION...THE 12Z KFGZ SOUNDING SHOWED 3-4 DEGREE C WARMING UP
TO 700 MB OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS. THE 900 AM MST SURFACE
OBSERVATIONS SHOWED 3-8 DEGREE F WARMING (OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS)
ACROSS NORTHERN ARIZONA THIS MORNING. MADE A SLIGHT UPWARD
ADJUSTMENT TO THE HIGH TEMPERATURES TODAY. SATELLITE IS SHOWING AN
AREA OF MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS MOVING NORTHWESTWARD ACROSS OUR
AREA. HAVE MADE AN UPWARD ADJUSTMENT TO THE SKY GRIDS. SATELLITE PW
IMAGE SHOWS A SHARP GRADIENT FROM NORTHERN ARIZONA TO SOUTHERN AND
EAST CENTRAL ARIZONA THIS MORNING. FROM FLAGSTAFF NORTH AND WEST IT
IS AROUND HALF AN INCH OR LES...SOUTH-EAST IT IS 0.75 UP TO OVER
1.50 OVER SOUTHERN ARIZONA. CURRENT POP FORECAST FOR TODAY SHOWS
GREATEST CHANCE OVER THE WHITE MOUNTAINS AND THEN DECREASING NORTH
THROUGH WEST...NO CHANGES NEEDED THERE.


&&
.PREV DISCUSSION /655 AM MST/...SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE WILL BEGIN TO
RETURN TO NORTHERN ARIZONA AS THE TROUGH ALONG THE WEST COAST
WEAKENS AND MOVES EAST BY THURSDAY. THE UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE
RIDGE WILL SIT OVER WESTERN NEW MEXICO AND THE FOUR CORNERS
REGION...AND DUE TO THE CLOCKWISE CIRCULATION AROUND THE UPPER LEVEL
HIGH...THIS CIRCULATION WILL TEND TO DRAW DEEPER MOISTURE OVER
NORTHERN MEXICO NORTHWARD INTO NORTHERN ARIZONA. CURRENTLY 1.0"+ PW
AIR HAS MOVED NORTHWARD INTO SOUTHERN SECTIONS OF THE STATE...WITH
1.5"+ PW AIR OVER NORTHERN MEXICO. THIS IS THE AIRMASS THAT IS
FORECAST TO BE PULLED NORTHWARD AROUND THE UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE
RIDGE.  EXPECT A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FIRST OVER THE
WHITE MOUNTAINS AND PORTIONS OF THE EASTERN MOGOLLON RIM TODAY WITH
SLIGHT CHANCES ELSEWHERE...THEN CHANCE SHRA/TSRA AS FAR NORTH AS
FLAGSTAFF WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...THEN TO THE GRAND CANYON COUNTRY
BY THE WEEKEND. SOME OF THE THUNDERSTORMS THAT INITIALLY FORM WILL
BE HIGH BASED WITH THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE STRONG THUNDERSTORM
OUTFLOW WINDS...THEN WETTER STORMS WILL REPLACE THE HIGHER BASED
STORMS AS THE MOISTURE PROGRESSES NORTHWESTWARD.

THE BEST SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE IS FORECAST FROM THE
COCONINO PLATEAU...MOGOLLON RIM...AND WHITE MOUNTAINS SOUTHWARD
THROUGH THIS FORECAST PERIOD.
&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 18Z PACKAGE...PRIMARILY VFR CONDITIONS FOR THE
NEXT 24 HOURS. AREAS OF SMOKE FROM WILDFIRES...WITH MVFR VSBYS
POSSIBLE VCNTY KSEZ...KFLG...KGCN. LOOK FOR ISOLATED -SHRA/TSRA BTWN
18Z TUE -03Z WEDS...MAINLY ALONG/SOUTH OF A KFLG-KRQE LINE. WIND
GUSTS TO 40 KT POSSIBLE NEAR STRONGER CONVECTIVE CELLS. AVIATION
DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDMENTS.

&&

.FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC.........MAS/TC
AVIATION.......JJ

FOR NORTHERN ARIZONA WEATHER INFORMATION VISIT
WEATHER.GOV/FLAGSTAFF

















000
FXUS65 KFGZ 221626
AFDFGZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ
908 PM MST SUN JUL 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO BRING DRY AIR INTO
THE REGION FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS RESULTING IN MOSTLY DRY CONDITIONS
WITH ONLY MINIMAL CHANCES FOR LIGHT SHOWER ACTIVITY THROUGH TUESDAY. A
DISTURBANCE NEAR MEXICO WILL HELP TO PUSH UP ADDITIONAL MOISTURE
INTO NORTHERN ARIZONA LATE TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY WHICH WILL PRODUCE
AN INCREASING TREND IN OUR CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS FROM
WEDNESDAY ONWARD.

&&

.DISCUSSION...THE HIGH PRESSURE CENTER OVER SOUTHERN NEW MEXICO AND
A LOW OFF THE CALIFORNIA COAST WILL INTERACT TO KEEP NORTHERN
ARIZONA IN A DRY SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW PATTERN THROUGH MONDAY. EXPECT
MINIMAL CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FOR ONE MORE DAY.
SIX WILDFIRE SMOKE PLUMES WERE EVIDENT ON THE GOES VISIBLE SATELLITE
IMAGERY TODAY FROM THE GRAND CANYON REGION SOUTHEAST ALONG THE
MOGOLLON RIM TO JUST NORTH OF PAYSON.

TUESDAY WILL BE A MOISTURE TRANSITION DAY AS A EASTERLY WAVE MOVING
ACROSS THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA NEAR BAJA WILL INTERACT WITH THE HIGH
PRESSURE RIDGE AND DRIVE HIGHER MOISTURE LEVELS NORTHWARD UP INTO
ARIZONA. THE BEST CHANCES FOR SHOWERS ON TUESDAY WILL BE WITH THE
DEEPEST MOISTURE LEVELS ACROSS THE MOUNTAIN AREAS OF SOUTHERN APACHE
AND NAVAJO COUNTIES LATE TUESDAY AFTERNOON.

WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL
INCREASE SLIGHTLY WITH A 10 TO 30 PERCENT CHANCE FOR RAINFALL. THE
HIGHEST CHANCES FOR STORMS DURING THIS PERIOD WILL BE FOUND ALONG
THE MOGOLLON RIM REGION.

&&

.AVIATION...EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. PATCHY FU
POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT VCNTY KSEZ AND KFLG. ISOLD HIGH BASED -SHRA/-TSRA
FROM 18Z-02Z MONDAY EAST OF KSOW. AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED
FOR AMENDMENTS.

&&

.FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC.........BOHLIN
AVIATION.......PETERSON

FOR NORTHERN ARIZONA WEATHER INFORMATION VISIT
WEATHER.GOV/FLAGSTAFF









000
FXUS65 KFGZ 221624
AFDFGZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ
908 PM MST SUN JUL 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO BRING DRY AIR INTO
THE REGION FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS RESULTING IN MOSTLY DRY CONDITIONS
WITH ONLY MINIMAL CHANCES FOR LIGHT SHOWER ACTIVITY THROUGH TUESDAY. A
DISTURBANCE NEAR MEXICO WILL HELP TO PUSH UP ADDITIONAL MOISTURE
INTO NORTHERN ARIZONA LATE TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY WHICH WILL PRODUCE
AN INCREASING TREND IN OUR CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS FROM
WEDNESDAY ONWARD.

&&

.DISCUSSION...THE HIGH PRESSURE CENTER OVER SOUTHERN NEW MEXICO AND
A LOW OFF THE CALIFORNIA COAST WILL INTERACT TO KEEP NORTHERN
ARIZONA IN A DRY SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW PATTERN THROUGH MONDAY. EXPECT
MINIMAL CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FOR ONE MORE DAY.
SIX WILDFIRE SMOKE PLUMES WERE EVIDENT ON THE GOES VISIBLE SATELLITE
IMAGERY TODAY FROM THE GRAND CANYON REGION SOUTHEAST ALONG THE
MOGOLLON RIM TO JUST NORTH OF PAYSON.

TUESDAY WILL BE A MOISTURE TRANSITION DAY AS A EASTERLY WAVE MOVING
ACROSS THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA NEAR BAJA WILL INTERACT WITH THE HIGH
PRESSURE RIDGE AND DRIVE HIGHER MOISTURE LEVELS NORTHWARD UP INTO
ARIZONA. THE BEST CHANCES FOR SHOWERS ON TUESDAY WILL BE WITH THE
DEEPEST MOISTURE LEVELS ACROSS THE MOUNTAIN AREAS OF SOUTHERN APACHE
AND NAVAJO COUNTIES LATE TUESDAY AFTERNOON.

WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL
INCREASE SLIGHTLY WITH A 10 TO 30 PERCENT CHANCE FOR RAINFALL. THE
HIGHEST CHANCES FOR STORMS DURING THIS PERIOD WILL BE FOUND ALONG
THE MOGOLLON RIM REGION.

&&

.AVIATION...EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. PATCHY FU
POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT VCNTY KSEZ AND KFLG. ISOLD HIGH BASED -SHRA/-TSRA
FROM 18Z-02Z MONDAY EAST OF KSOW. AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED
FOR AMENDMENTS.

&&

.FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC.........BOHLIN
AVIATION.......PETERSON

FOR NORTHERN ARIZONA WEATHER INFORMATION VISIT
WEATHER.GOV/FLAGSTAFF








000
FXUS65 KFGZ 221624
AFDFGZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ
908 PM MST SUN JUL 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO BRING DRY AIR INTO
THE REGION FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS RESULTING IN MOSTLY DRY CONDITIONS
WITH ONLY MINIMAL CHANCES FOR LIGHT SHOWER ACTIVITY THROUGH TUESDAY. A
DISTURBANCE NEAR MEXICO WILL HELP TO PUSH UP ADDITIONAL MOISTURE
INTO NORTHERN ARIZONA LATE TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY WHICH WILL PRODUCE
AN INCREASING TREND IN OUR CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS FROM
WEDNESDAY ONWARD.

&&

.DISCUSSION...THE HIGH PRESSURE CENTER OVER SOUTHERN NEW MEXICO AND
A LOW OFF THE CALIFORNIA COAST WILL INTERACT TO KEEP NORTHERN
ARIZONA IN A DRY SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW PATTERN THROUGH MONDAY. EXPECT
MINIMAL CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FOR ONE MORE DAY.
SIX WILDFIRE SMOKE PLUMES WERE EVIDENT ON THE GOES VISIBLE SATELLITE
IMAGERY TODAY FROM THE GRAND CANYON REGION SOUTHEAST ALONG THE
MOGOLLON RIM TO JUST NORTH OF PAYSON.

TUESDAY WILL BE A MOISTURE TRANSITION DAY AS A EASTERLY WAVE MOVING
ACROSS THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA NEAR BAJA WILL INTERACT WITH THE HIGH
PRESSURE RIDGE AND DRIVE HIGHER MOISTURE LEVELS NORTHWARD UP INTO
ARIZONA. THE BEST CHANCES FOR SHOWERS ON TUESDAY WILL BE WITH THE
DEEPEST MOISTURE LEVELS ACROSS THE MOUNTAIN AREAS OF SOUTHERN APACHE
AND NAVAJO COUNTIES LATE TUESDAY AFTERNOON.

WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL
INCREASE SLIGHTLY WITH A 10 TO 30 PERCENT CHANCE FOR RAINFALL. THE
HIGHEST CHANCES FOR STORMS DURING THIS PERIOD WILL BE FOUND ALONG
THE MOGOLLON RIM REGION.

&&

.AVIATION...EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. PATCHY FU
POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT VCNTY KSEZ AND KFLG. ISOLD HIGH BASED -SHRA/-TSRA
FROM 18Z-02Z MONDAY EAST OF KSOW. AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED
FOR AMENDMENTS.

&&

.FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC.........BOHLIN
AVIATION.......PETERSON

FOR NORTHERN ARIZONA WEATHER INFORMATION VISIT
WEATHER.GOV/FLAGSTAFF









000
FXUS65 KTWC 221613
AFDTWC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ
913 AM MST TUE JUL 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...EXPECT ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS MOSTLY EAST
AND SOUTH OF TUCSON THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THIS WEEK. MUCH HOTTER
TEMPERATURES WILL OCCUR TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...WITH NEAR RECORD
HIGHS POSSIBLE. AN INCREASE IN THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY SHOULD OCCUR
LATE IN THE WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND.

&&

.DISCUSSION...WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS HIGH PRESSURE JUST TO OUR
EAST WITH THIS MORNINGS KTWC SOUNDING SHOWING SOUTHERLY FLOW AT THE
MID TO UPPER LEVELS. THE SOUNDING SHOWED A PWAT OF 1.18
INCHES...WITH THE BULK OF THIS MOISTURE COMING FROM THE 625-475MB
LAYER. OTHERWISE THE LOWER LEVELS WERE QUITE DRY...AS WELL AS A
PRONOUNCED DRY LAYER AT AROUND 450MB...WHICH COINCIDED WITH AN
INVERSION/CAP. THAT SAID...THE SOUNDING WAS STABLE WITH VERY LITTLE
PROSPECTS FOR THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...WE SHOULD
STILL SEE ISOLATED ACTIVITY MAINLY ALONG THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER
LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND INTO THE EVENING HOURS. THE INHERITED POP
FORECAST SEEMS TO BE A BIT TOO AGGRESSIVE WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...ESPECIALLY FOR AREAS TO THE WEST AND
NORTHWEST. SO...WILL TRIM THESE NUMBERS BACK A BIT...BUT KEEP THE
ISOLATED TO LOW END SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS IN THE FORECAST FOR
PARTS OF SANTA CRUZ AND COCHISE COUNTIES...AS WELL AS THE WHITE
MOUNTAINS.

AS OF 16Z (9 AM MST)...TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE REGION RANGED FROM
THE UPPER 70D TO THE LOWER 90S...WITH THE TUCSON INTL AIRPORT
REPORTING A TEMP OF 90 DEGS AFTER A MORNING LOW OF 79 DEGS. THE
CURRENT TEMP READINGS SEEM TO BE ON TRACK...BUT WILL CONTINUE TO
MONITOR AND WILL MAKE CHANGES IF NEEDED.

FOR DETAILS REGARDING THE FORECAST BEYOND TODAY...PLEASE REFER TO
THE PREVIOUS DISCUSSION BELOW.

&&

.AVIATION...VALID THRU 23/18Z.
ISOLATED -TSRA/-SHRA WILL OCCUR MOSTLY EAST AND SOUTH OF KTUS THIS
AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING. BRIEF WIND GUSTS TO NEAR 35 KTS MAY
OCCUR WITH THIS ACTIVITY. OTHERWISE...EXPECT FEW TO BROKEN CLOUDS
MAINLY ABOVE 10K FT AGL INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING. AVIATION DISCUSSION
NOT UPDATED FOR TAF AMENDMENTS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...ISOLATED SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IS
EXPECTED STARTING TODAY...ESPECIALLY SOUTH AND EAST OF TUCSON. THE
BEST CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL SHIFT A BIT WESTWARD
ON WEDNESDAY TO INCLUDE THE TUCSON AREA. THERE WILL PERHAPS BE A
BRIEF DOWNTURN IN STORM COVERAGE THURSDAY BEFORE A MORE TYPICAL
MONSOON PATTERN MOVES IN LATE THIS WEEK AND THIS WEEKEND WITH
SCATTERED MAINLY AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
EXPECT STRONG...GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS WITH THE STRONGER
THUNDERSTORMS. HOTTER TEMPERATURES WILL ALSO OCCUR THROUGH THURSDAY
FOLLOWED BY A COOLING TREND BY THE WEEKEND.

&&

.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES WILL ALSO BE ON THE
INCREASE TODAY AND WEDNESDAY AS THICKNESS VALUES JUMP UP IN RESPONSE
TO THE UPPER HIGH BUILDING NORTHWARD. A COMBINATION OF INCREASING
MOISTURE AND WARMER AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES SHOULD TRANSLATE TO
BETTER THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WEDNESDAY AREAWIDE. ON THURSDAY...MODELS
SHOWED THE DEEPER MOISTURE SPREADING WESTWARD TO THE COLORADO RIVER
VALLEY WITH DRIER AIR ENTERING EASTERN SECTIONS. BY THIS
WEEKEND...MODELS TRACK AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE THROUGH MEXICO
WHICH WILL LIKELY BRING A NOTICEABLE UPSWING IN THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY. THEREAFTER...A DOWNWARD TREND IN THUNDERSTORMS WILL
COMMENCE. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL THROUGHOUT THE
FORECAST PERIOD...BUT THE WARMEST DAYS WILL OCCUR WEDNESDAY THROUGH
FRIDAY...WHEN READINGS WILL BE 8 TO 12 DEGS ABOVE NORMAL.
OTHERWISE...EXPECT HIGHS TO BE 3 TO 6 DEGS ABOVE NORMAL. LOWS
GENERALLY 4 TO 6 DEGS ABOVE NORMAL EACH DAY...BUT THE WARMEST
MORNINGS SHOULD OCCUR WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.

&&

.TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...YOUTUBE...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/TUCSON






000
FXUS65 KTWC 221613
AFDTWC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ
913 AM MST TUE JUL 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...EXPECT ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS MOSTLY EAST
AND SOUTH OF TUCSON THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THIS WEEK. MUCH HOTTER
TEMPERATURES WILL OCCUR TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...WITH NEAR RECORD
HIGHS POSSIBLE. AN INCREASE IN THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY SHOULD OCCUR
LATE IN THE WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND.

&&

.DISCUSSION...WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS HIGH PRESSURE JUST TO OUR
EAST WITH THIS MORNINGS KTWC SOUNDING SHOWING SOUTHERLY FLOW AT THE
MID TO UPPER LEVELS. THE SOUNDING SHOWED A PWAT OF 1.18
INCHES...WITH THE BULK OF THIS MOISTURE COMING FROM THE 625-475MB
LAYER. OTHERWISE THE LOWER LEVELS WERE QUITE DRY...AS WELL AS A
PRONOUNCED DRY LAYER AT AROUND 450MB...WHICH COINCIDED WITH AN
INVERSION/CAP. THAT SAID...THE SOUNDING WAS STABLE WITH VERY LITTLE
PROSPECTS FOR THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...WE SHOULD
STILL SEE ISOLATED ACTIVITY MAINLY ALONG THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER
LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND INTO THE EVENING HOURS. THE INHERITED POP
FORECAST SEEMS TO BE A BIT TOO AGGRESSIVE WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...ESPECIALLY FOR AREAS TO THE WEST AND
NORTHWEST. SO...WILL TRIM THESE NUMBERS BACK A BIT...BUT KEEP THE
ISOLATED TO LOW END SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS IN THE FORECAST FOR
PARTS OF SANTA CRUZ AND COCHISE COUNTIES...AS WELL AS THE WHITE
MOUNTAINS.

AS OF 16Z (9 AM MST)...TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE REGION RANGED FROM
THE UPPER 70D TO THE LOWER 90S...WITH THE TUCSON INTL AIRPORT
REPORTING A TEMP OF 90 DEGS AFTER A MORNING LOW OF 79 DEGS. THE
CURRENT TEMP READINGS SEEM TO BE ON TRACK...BUT WILL CONTINUE TO
MONITOR AND WILL MAKE CHANGES IF NEEDED.

FOR DETAILS REGARDING THE FORECAST BEYOND TODAY...PLEASE REFER TO
THE PREVIOUS DISCUSSION BELOW.

&&

.AVIATION...VALID THRU 23/18Z.
ISOLATED -TSRA/-SHRA WILL OCCUR MOSTLY EAST AND SOUTH OF KTUS THIS
AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING. BRIEF WIND GUSTS TO NEAR 35 KTS MAY
OCCUR WITH THIS ACTIVITY. OTHERWISE...EXPECT FEW TO BROKEN CLOUDS
MAINLY ABOVE 10K FT AGL INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING. AVIATION DISCUSSION
NOT UPDATED FOR TAF AMENDMENTS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...ISOLATED SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IS
EXPECTED STARTING TODAY...ESPECIALLY SOUTH AND EAST OF TUCSON. THE
BEST CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL SHIFT A BIT WESTWARD
ON WEDNESDAY TO INCLUDE THE TUCSON AREA. THERE WILL PERHAPS BE A
BRIEF DOWNTURN IN STORM COVERAGE THURSDAY BEFORE A MORE TYPICAL
MONSOON PATTERN MOVES IN LATE THIS WEEK AND THIS WEEKEND WITH
SCATTERED MAINLY AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
EXPECT STRONG...GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS WITH THE STRONGER
THUNDERSTORMS. HOTTER TEMPERATURES WILL ALSO OCCUR THROUGH THURSDAY
FOLLOWED BY A COOLING TREND BY THE WEEKEND.

&&

.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES WILL ALSO BE ON THE
INCREASE TODAY AND WEDNESDAY AS THICKNESS VALUES JUMP UP IN RESPONSE
TO THE UPPER HIGH BUILDING NORTHWARD. A COMBINATION OF INCREASING
MOISTURE AND WARMER AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES SHOULD TRANSLATE TO
BETTER THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WEDNESDAY AREAWIDE. ON THURSDAY...MODELS
SHOWED THE DEEPER MOISTURE SPREADING WESTWARD TO THE COLORADO RIVER
VALLEY WITH DRIER AIR ENTERING EASTERN SECTIONS. BY THIS
WEEKEND...MODELS TRACK AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE THROUGH MEXICO
WHICH WILL LIKELY BRING A NOTICEABLE UPSWING IN THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY. THEREAFTER...A DOWNWARD TREND IN THUNDERSTORMS WILL
COMMENCE. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL THROUGHOUT THE
FORECAST PERIOD...BUT THE WARMEST DAYS WILL OCCUR WEDNESDAY THROUGH
FRIDAY...WHEN READINGS WILL BE 8 TO 12 DEGS ABOVE NORMAL.
OTHERWISE...EXPECT HIGHS TO BE 3 TO 6 DEGS ABOVE NORMAL. LOWS
GENERALLY 4 TO 6 DEGS ABOVE NORMAL EACH DAY...BUT THE WARMEST
MORNINGS SHOULD OCCUR WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.

&&

.TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...YOUTUBE...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/TUCSON







000
FXUS65 KPSR 221541
AFDPSR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PHOENIX AZ
840 AM MST TUE JUL 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A STRONG HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP OVER THE REGION
THIS WEEK...RESULTING IN VERY HOT TEMPERATURES BY WEDNESDAY. AT THE
SAME TIME...MONSOON MOISTURE WILL SLOWLY INCREASE OVER THE AREA...
WITH OCCASIONAL CLOUDINESS AT TIMES. INCREASED MOISTURE LEVELS...
COMBINED WITH SEVERAL WEAK WEATHER DISTURBANCES FROM MEXICO...ARE
FORECAST TO INCREASE THE CHANCE OF AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS...MAINLY ACROSS ARIZONA.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
HIGHER ATMOSPHERIC HEIGHTS AND THICKNESS VALUES TODAY WILL TRANSLATE
INTO A MUCH WARMER DAY OVER YESTERDAY. HOWEVER THE CONCERN HAS BEEN
HOW MUCH CLOUDINESS WILL FLOW NORTH FROM MEXICO INTO CENTRAL AZ TO
REDUCE DAILY INSOLATION AND THE POTENTIAL HEATING CURVE...THE
EXCEPTION IS SOUTHEAST CA AND SOUTHWEST AZ WHICH WILL HAVE FULL
SUNSHINE TODAY.

THICK CLOUDINESS DID DEVELOP OVER SOUTH CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST AZ
LATE LAST NIGHT DUE TO THE COMBINATION OF A WEAK MID LEVEL
DISTURBANCE...SEEN IN PLOT DATA...AND WEAK ENTRANCE REGION UPPER
LEVEL JET DYNAMICS. AND...MODELS FORECAST THE CLOUDS TO CONTINUE
THROUGHOUT THE DAY WITH EVEN A FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER
THE EASTERN AZ MOUNTAINS...INCLUDING OUR SOUTHERN GILA COUNTY ZONE
24. HOW MUCH OF A REDUCTION IN INSOLATION WILL PREVENT THE FULL
SURFACE HEATING CURVE POTENTIAL IN SOUTH CENTRAL AZ...NOT SURE.
THEREFORE WE WILL CONTINUE WITH THE 109-110 DEGREE FORECASTS FOR
THE SOUTH CENTRAL AZ DESERTS TODAY.

WEDNESDAY...
ADDITIONAL MORNING AND AFTERNOON CLOUDINESS ARE EXPECTED ALONG WITH
HIGHER SURFACE HUMIDITY ON WED. AGAIN...INCREASED MOISTURE COULD
RETARD THE DIURNAL SURFACE HEATING CURVE IN SOUTH CENTRAL AZ
INCLUDING PHOENIX. CURRENT FORECASTS OF NEAR RECORD HEAT IN SOUTH
CENTRAL AZ ARE PREDICATED ON THE BEST PERFORMING MOS GUIDANCE...
WHICH MAY NEED TO BE ADJUSTED BASED ON THE ABOVE MOISTURE INCREASE
DISCUSSION. FOR NOW THE EXCESSIVE HEAT WATCH FOR A LARGE PART OF
SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH CENTRAL AZ ON WED AND THU WILL CONTINUE.

OTHERWISE FORECASTS LOOK OK FOR NOW. NO UPDATES PLANNED. PREVIOUS
DISCUSSION BELOW STILL APPLIES.


.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...445 AM MST...
THE FOCUS OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS THROUGH THURSDAY IS ON JUST HOW HOT
IS IS GOING TO GET. A BROAD UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONE IS CURRENTLY
PARKED OVER NEW MEXICO AND COLORADO...COMPLETE WITH A 596-600DM
HIGH CENTER. WITH THE INCREASE IN 500MB HEIGHTS...THIS WILL
DEFINITELY KEEP THE TEMPS OVER THE DESERT SOUTHWEST VERY HOT.

CURRENT IR/WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A LIMITED SWATH OF
DEBRIS CLOUDS FROM EARLIER CONVECTION OVER SONORA AND CHIHUAHUA
MEXICO THAT IS BEGINNING TO STREAM NORTHWARD IN THE ANTICYCLONIC
FLOW ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF OUR CWA. PREVIOUS MODEL RUNS HAD
THIS MID-HIGH LEVEL CLOUD COVER CONSIDERABLY MORE OPAQUE AND THE
AMOUNT/EXTENT OF COVERAGE FURTHER WEST COVERING MOST OF SOUTH
CENTRAL ARIZONA BY THIS TIME.

HOWEVER...WITH THE CLOUD COVER LACKING...THE EXPECTED DAYTIME
REDUCTION IN DAYTIME IS NOW IN QUESTION. THERE IS NO DOUBT THAT
SOUTHEAST CA AND SOUTHWEST AZ WILL HAVE FULL SUNSHINE TODAY FOR A
SUBSTANTIAL WARM-UP...AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES RANGING 109-113 DEGREES
FOR THE LOWER DESERTS NEAR IMPERIAL/BLYTHE/YUMA. DEPENDING ON THE
AMOUNT OF HIGH CLOUDS THAT MATERIALIZE LATER TODAY ACROSS
SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA...THERE COULD BE SUFFICIENT INSOLATION TO BUMP
FORECAST MAX TEMPS UP A COUPLE DEGREES. RIGHT NOW...109 IS FORECAST
FOR PHOENIX...BUT IT MIGHT ENDING UP TO BE A BIT WARMER AT MANY
LOCATIONS. THE AMOUNT OF CLOUD COVER...AND HOW HOT IT GETS TODAY
WILL INDICATE HOW EFFECTIVELY WE CAN COOL OFF OVERNIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY MORNING...AND IT WILL DICTATE IF THE EXCESSIVE HEAT WATCH
SHOULD BE UPGRADED TO A WARNING FOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.

THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW IS ALSO PROGGED TO BECOME MORE EASTERLY TO
SOUTHEASTERLY WITH TIME...ALONG WITH A GRADUAL MOISTURE INCREASE.
THE 03Z KPSR RAOB FROM YESTERDAY EVENING REVEALED A SWITCH FROM
SOUTHWEST TO EAST HAS ALREADY TAKEN PLACE IN THE MID-LEVEL FLOW.
EVEN THOUGH THE SOUNDING SHOWED LITTLE CHANGE IN PRECIPITABLE WATER
AT 0.85 INCHES...MODEL FORECAST SOUNDINGS STILL SUGGEST THAT
ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE WILL STEADILY INCREASE TO AROUND 1.30 INCHES
OVER THE SOUTHWEST DESERTS BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. SOME LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE IS STARTING TO SNEAK BACK INTO THE AREA...AS SURFACE DEW
POINT TEMPERATURES ARE NOW 7-10 DEGREES HIGHER THAN THIS TIME
YESTERDAY MORNING ACROSS SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA. YET...GIVEN THE SLOW
INCREASE IN MOISTURE...NOT EXPECTING MUCH TO CHANGE IN PRECIPITATION
CHANCES FOR LATER TODAY. STILL LOOKING AT THE BEST CHANCES OF
AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER EASTERN
ARIZONA...WITH ONLY ISOLATED STORMS WELL EAST OF PHOENIX OVER THE
HIGHER TERRAIN OF SOUTHERN GILA COUNTY.

WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...
AGAIN...THE BEST PERFORMING TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE CONTINUES THE
AFTERNOON WARM-UP INTO NEAR RECORD BREAKING TERRITORY WEDNESDAY
AND THURSDAY. THIS DESPITE MODEL GUIDANCE OF MORE CONVECTIVE DEBRIS
CLOUDS AND SLIGHTLY HIGHER HUMIDITIES. IN FACT...THE UPPER LEVEL
WIND FIELD ALONG WESTERN EDGE OF THE 300/250 MB ANTICYCLONES...OVER
CENTRAL AZ...INDICATE A LITTLE SPEED DIVERGENCE OR ACCELERATING
WIND FROM SOUTH TO NORTH THAT COULD SUPPORT A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS OR
SPRINKLES IN SOUTH CENTRAL AZ WED MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON.

SINCE THERE IS A LOT OF VARIABILITY IN CLOUD FORECASTS...AND EVEN
PRECIPITATION CHANCES...AND THE BEST PERFORMING AFTERNOON TEMP
GUIDANCE IS STILL BULLISH ON HIGHER VALUES...THE EXCESSIVE HEAT
WATCH WILL CONTINUE FOR THIS TIME PERIOD. HOWEVER...THE WATCH COULD
BE UPGRADED TO A WARNING IF LESS CLOUD COVER ARRIVES TO MITIGATE THE
WARMTH. SOUTHEAST CA AND SOUTHWEST AZ WILL BE IN FULL SUNSHINE FOR
MUCH HIGHER AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES.

FRIDAY THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.
A MUCH STRONGER EAST TO SOUTHEAST MID/UPPER LEVEL WIND FIELD IS
FORECAST TO DEVELOP...REPLETE WITH HARD TO TIME PERTURBATIONS OR
INVERTED TROFS FLOWING MAINLY ACROSS SOUTHERN AZ. THIS COULD PORTEND
AND UPSWING IN TYPICAL MONSOON DIURNAL CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY. PRECIP
PROBABILITIES WERE ADDED TO PORTIONS OF SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH CENTRAL
AZ.

&&

.CLIMATE...

RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURE FOR THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK.

CITY        JULY 22       JULY 23      JULY 24
----        -------       -------      -------
PHOENIX   116 IN 2006   114 IN 2006  114 IN 2006
YUMA      116 IN 2006   115 IN 1959  117 IN 1943

&&

.AVIATION...
SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA INCLUDING KPHX...KIWA...AND KSDL...
MID AND HIGH CLOUDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE THROUGH TONIGHT. GIVEN
THE RELATIVELY DRY CONDITIONS AT THE SURFACE...AREAS OF VIRGA ARE A
POSSIBILITY...WHICH MAY PRODUCE LOCALIZED GUSTY WINDS.
HOWEVER...WINDS WILL GENERALLY REMAIN LIGHT AND DIURNAL THROUGH THE
TAF PERIOD.

SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA AND SOUTHWEST ARIZONA INCLUDING KIPL AND KBLH...
NO AVIATION IMPACTS EXPECTED WITH LIGHT WINDS AND OCCASIONAL MID AND
HIGH CLOUDS.

AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDED TAFS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY...
STRONG HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN THE PREDOMINANT WEATHER FEATURE
ACROSS THE REGION. BIGGEST IMPACT WILL BE THE HEAT...WITH ABOVE
NORMAL TEMPERATURES LIKELY THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE TREND WILL
BE TOWARDS INCREASING MOISTURE EACH DAY...THOUGH THUNDERSTORMS WILL
MAINLY BE CONCENTRATED IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF EASTERN AZ. ACROSS
THE LOWER DESERTS OF AZ...ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE
POSSIBLE...PARTICULARLY DURING THE WEEKEND...THOUGH THE GREATER
THREAT IS FOR OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES CAPABLE OF PRODUCING STRONG WIND
GUSTS. FURTHER WEST ACROSS SE CA...THE CHANCE FOR RAIN AND
THUNDERSTORM IMPACTS WILL BE EVEN LOWER. MINIMUM HUMIDITIES WILL
GENERALLY FALL INTO A 15-20 PERCENT RANGE WITH GOOD OVERNIGHT
RECOVERY.

&&

.PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

AZ...EXCESSIVE HEAT WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY
EVENING AZZ020>023-025>028.

CA...EXCESSIVE HEAT WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY
EVENING CAZ031>033.

&&

$$

VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/PHOENIX

DISCUSSION...VASQUEZ/MEYERS
CLIMATE...MO
AVIATION....HIRSCH
FIRE WEATHER...HIRSCH








000
FXUS65 KPSR 221541
AFDPSR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PHOENIX AZ
840 AM MST TUE JUL 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A STRONG HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP OVER THE REGION
THIS WEEK...RESULTING IN VERY HOT TEMPERATURES BY WEDNESDAY. AT THE
SAME TIME...MONSOON MOISTURE WILL SLOWLY INCREASE OVER THE AREA...
WITH OCCASIONAL CLOUDINESS AT TIMES. INCREASED MOISTURE LEVELS...
COMBINED WITH SEVERAL WEAK WEATHER DISTURBANCES FROM MEXICO...ARE
FORECAST TO INCREASE THE CHANCE OF AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS...MAINLY ACROSS ARIZONA.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
HIGHER ATMOSPHERIC HEIGHTS AND THICKNESS VALUES TODAY WILL TRANSLATE
INTO A MUCH WARMER DAY OVER YESTERDAY. HOWEVER THE CONCERN HAS BEEN
HOW MUCH CLOUDINESS WILL FLOW NORTH FROM MEXICO INTO CENTRAL AZ TO
REDUCE DAILY INSOLATION AND THE POTENTIAL HEATING CURVE...THE
EXCEPTION IS SOUTHEAST CA AND SOUTHWEST AZ WHICH WILL HAVE FULL
SUNSHINE TODAY.

THICK CLOUDINESS DID DEVELOP OVER SOUTH CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST AZ
LATE LAST NIGHT DUE TO THE COMBINATION OF A WEAK MID LEVEL
DISTURBANCE...SEEN IN PLOT DATA...AND WEAK ENTRANCE REGION UPPER
LEVEL JET DYNAMICS. AND...MODELS FORECAST THE CLOUDS TO CONTINUE
THROUGHOUT THE DAY WITH EVEN A FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER
THE EASTERN AZ MOUNTAINS...INCLUDING OUR SOUTHERN GILA COUNTY ZONE
24. HOW MUCH OF A REDUCTION IN INSOLATION WILL PREVENT THE FULL
SURFACE HEATING CURVE POTENTIAL IN SOUTH CENTRAL AZ...NOT SURE.
THEREFORE WE WILL CONTINUE WITH THE 109-110 DEGREE FORECASTS FOR
THE SOUTH CENTRAL AZ DESERTS TODAY.

WEDNESDAY...
ADDITIONAL MORNING AND AFTERNOON CLOUDINESS ARE EXPECTED ALONG WITH
HIGHER SURFACE HUMIDITY ON WED. AGAIN...INCREASED MOISTURE COULD
RETARD THE DIURNAL SURFACE HEATING CURVE IN SOUTH CENTRAL AZ
INCLUDING PHOENIX. CURRENT FORECASTS OF NEAR RECORD HEAT IN SOUTH
CENTRAL AZ ARE PREDICATED ON THE BEST PERFORMING MOS GUIDANCE...
WHICH MAY NEED TO BE ADJUSTED BASED ON THE ABOVE MOISTURE INCREASE
DISCUSSION. FOR NOW THE EXCESSIVE HEAT WATCH FOR A LARGE PART OF
SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH CENTRAL AZ ON WED AND THU WILL CONTINUE.

OTHERWISE FORECASTS LOOK OK FOR NOW. NO UPDATES PLANNED. PREVIOUS
DISCUSSION BELOW STILL APPLIES.


.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...445 AM MST...
THE FOCUS OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS THROUGH THURSDAY IS ON JUST HOW HOT
IS IS GOING TO GET. A BROAD UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONE IS CURRENTLY
PARKED OVER NEW MEXICO AND COLORADO...COMPLETE WITH A 596-600DM
HIGH CENTER. WITH THE INCREASE IN 500MB HEIGHTS...THIS WILL
DEFINITELY KEEP THE TEMPS OVER THE DESERT SOUTHWEST VERY HOT.

CURRENT IR/WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A LIMITED SWATH OF
DEBRIS CLOUDS FROM EARLIER CONVECTION OVER SONORA AND CHIHUAHUA
MEXICO THAT IS BEGINNING TO STREAM NORTHWARD IN THE ANTICYCLONIC
FLOW ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF OUR CWA. PREVIOUS MODEL RUNS HAD
THIS MID-HIGH LEVEL CLOUD COVER CONSIDERABLY MORE OPAQUE AND THE
AMOUNT/EXTENT OF COVERAGE FURTHER WEST COVERING MOST OF SOUTH
CENTRAL ARIZONA BY THIS TIME.

HOWEVER...WITH THE CLOUD COVER LACKING...THE EXPECTED DAYTIME
REDUCTION IN DAYTIME IS NOW IN QUESTION. THERE IS NO DOUBT THAT
SOUTHEAST CA AND SOUTHWEST AZ WILL HAVE FULL SUNSHINE TODAY FOR A
SUBSTANTIAL WARM-UP...AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES RANGING 109-113 DEGREES
FOR THE LOWER DESERTS NEAR IMPERIAL/BLYTHE/YUMA. DEPENDING ON THE
AMOUNT OF HIGH CLOUDS THAT MATERIALIZE LATER TODAY ACROSS
SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA...THERE COULD BE SUFFICIENT INSOLATION TO BUMP
FORECAST MAX TEMPS UP A COUPLE DEGREES. RIGHT NOW...109 IS FORECAST
FOR PHOENIX...BUT IT MIGHT ENDING UP TO BE A BIT WARMER AT MANY
LOCATIONS. THE AMOUNT OF CLOUD COVER...AND HOW HOT IT GETS TODAY
WILL INDICATE HOW EFFECTIVELY WE CAN COOL OFF OVERNIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY MORNING...AND IT WILL DICTATE IF THE EXCESSIVE HEAT WATCH
SHOULD BE UPGRADED TO A WARNING FOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.

THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW IS ALSO PROGGED TO BECOME MORE EASTERLY TO
SOUTHEASTERLY WITH TIME...ALONG WITH A GRADUAL MOISTURE INCREASE.
THE 03Z KPSR RAOB FROM YESTERDAY EVENING REVEALED A SWITCH FROM
SOUTHWEST TO EAST HAS ALREADY TAKEN PLACE IN THE MID-LEVEL FLOW.
EVEN THOUGH THE SOUNDING SHOWED LITTLE CHANGE IN PRECIPITABLE WATER
AT 0.85 INCHES...MODEL FORECAST SOUNDINGS STILL SUGGEST THAT
ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE WILL STEADILY INCREASE TO AROUND 1.30 INCHES
OVER THE SOUTHWEST DESERTS BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. SOME LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE IS STARTING TO SNEAK BACK INTO THE AREA...AS SURFACE DEW
POINT TEMPERATURES ARE NOW 7-10 DEGREES HIGHER THAN THIS TIME
YESTERDAY MORNING ACROSS SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA. YET...GIVEN THE SLOW
INCREASE IN MOISTURE...NOT EXPECTING MUCH TO CHANGE IN PRECIPITATION
CHANCES FOR LATER TODAY. STILL LOOKING AT THE BEST CHANCES OF
AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER EASTERN
ARIZONA...WITH ONLY ISOLATED STORMS WELL EAST OF PHOENIX OVER THE
HIGHER TERRAIN OF SOUTHERN GILA COUNTY.

WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...
AGAIN...THE BEST PERFORMING TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE CONTINUES THE
AFTERNOON WARM-UP INTO NEAR RECORD BREAKING TERRITORY WEDNESDAY
AND THURSDAY. THIS DESPITE MODEL GUIDANCE OF MORE CONVECTIVE DEBRIS
CLOUDS AND SLIGHTLY HIGHER HUMIDITIES. IN FACT...THE UPPER LEVEL
WIND FIELD ALONG WESTERN EDGE OF THE 300/250 MB ANTICYCLONES...OVER
CENTRAL AZ...INDICATE A LITTLE SPEED DIVERGENCE OR ACCELERATING
WIND FROM SOUTH TO NORTH THAT COULD SUPPORT A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS OR
SPRINKLES IN SOUTH CENTRAL AZ WED MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON.

SINCE THERE IS A LOT OF VARIABILITY IN CLOUD FORECASTS...AND EVEN
PRECIPITATION CHANCES...AND THE BEST PERFORMING AFTERNOON TEMP
GUIDANCE IS STILL BULLISH ON HIGHER VALUES...THE EXCESSIVE HEAT
WATCH WILL CONTINUE FOR THIS TIME PERIOD. HOWEVER...THE WATCH COULD
BE UPGRADED TO A WARNING IF LESS CLOUD COVER ARRIVES TO MITIGATE THE
WARMTH. SOUTHEAST CA AND SOUTHWEST AZ WILL BE IN FULL SUNSHINE FOR
MUCH HIGHER AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES.

FRIDAY THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.
A MUCH STRONGER EAST TO SOUTHEAST MID/UPPER LEVEL WIND FIELD IS
FORECAST TO DEVELOP...REPLETE WITH HARD TO TIME PERTURBATIONS OR
INVERTED TROFS FLOWING MAINLY ACROSS SOUTHERN AZ. THIS COULD PORTEND
AND UPSWING IN TYPICAL MONSOON DIURNAL CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY. PRECIP
PROBABILITIES WERE ADDED TO PORTIONS OF SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH CENTRAL
AZ.

&&

.CLIMATE...

RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURE FOR THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK.

CITY        JULY 22       JULY 23      JULY 24
----        -------       -------      -------
PHOENIX   116 IN 2006   114 IN 2006  114 IN 2006
YUMA      116 IN 2006   115 IN 1959  117 IN 1943

&&

.AVIATION...
SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA INCLUDING KPHX...KIWA...AND KSDL...
MID AND HIGH CLOUDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE THROUGH TONIGHT. GIVEN
THE RELATIVELY DRY CONDITIONS AT THE SURFACE...AREAS OF VIRGA ARE A
POSSIBILITY...WHICH MAY PRODUCE LOCALIZED GUSTY WINDS.
HOWEVER...WINDS WILL GENERALLY REMAIN LIGHT AND DIURNAL THROUGH THE
TAF PERIOD.

SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA AND SOUTHWEST ARIZONA INCLUDING KIPL AND KBLH...
NO AVIATION IMPACTS EXPECTED WITH LIGHT WINDS AND OCCASIONAL MID AND
HIGH CLOUDS.

AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDED TAFS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY...
STRONG HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN THE PREDOMINANT WEATHER FEATURE
ACROSS THE REGION. BIGGEST IMPACT WILL BE THE HEAT...WITH ABOVE
NORMAL TEMPERATURES LIKELY THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE TREND WILL
BE TOWARDS INCREASING MOISTURE EACH DAY...THOUGH THUNDERSTORMS WILL
MAINLY BE CONCENTRATED IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF EASTERN AZ. ACROSS
THE LOWER DESERTS OF AZ...ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE
POSSIBLE...PARTICULARLY DURING THE WEEKEND...THOUGH THE GREATER
THREAT IS FOR OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES CAPABLE OF PRODUCING STRONG WIND
GUSTS. FURTHER WEST ACROSS SE CA...THE CHANCE FOR RAIN AND
THUNDERSTORM IMPACTS WILL BE EVEN LOWER. MINIMUM HUMIDITIES WILL
GENERALLY FALL INTO A 15-20 PERCENT RANGE WITH GOOD OVERNIGHT
RECOVERY.

&&

.PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

AZ...EXCESSIVE HEAT WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY
EVENING AZZ020>023-025>028.

CA...EXCESSIVE HEAT WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY
EVENING CAZ031>033.

&&

$$

VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/PHOENIX

DISCUSSION...VASQUEZ/MEYERS
CLIMATE...MO
AVIATION....HIRSCH
FIRE WEATHER...HIRSCH









000
FXUS65 KFGZ 221355 CCA
AFDFGZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ
655 AM MST TUE JUL 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
BEGINNING TUESDAY...SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IS FORECAST TO
GRADUALLY INCREASE AS SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE MOVES INTO THE REGION.
EXPECT THE WARMEST TEMPERATURES TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY WITH DAYTIME
HIGH TEMPERATURES RUNNING SEVERAL DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL...THEN
DROPPING BACK TO NORMAL BY THE WEEKEND.
&&

.DISCUSSION...SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE WILL BEGIN TO RETURN TO NORTHERN
ARIZONA AS THE TROUGH ALONG THE WEST COAST WEAKENS AND MOVES EAST BY
THURSDAY. THE UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL SIT OVER WESTERN
NEW MEXICO AND THE FOUR CORNERS REGION...AND DUE TO THE CLOCKWISE
CIRCULATION AROUND THE UPPER LEVEL HIGH...THIS CIRCULATION WILL TEND
TO DRAW DEEPER MOISTURE OVER NORTHERN MEXICO NORTHWARD INTO NORTHERN
ARIZONA. CURRENTLY 1.0"+ PW AIR HAS MOVED NORTHWARD INTO SOUTHERN
SECTIONS OF THE STATE...WITH 1.5"+ PW AIR OVER NORTHERN MEXICO. THIS
IS THE AIRMASS THAT IS FORECAST TO BE PULLED NORTHWARD AROUND THE
UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE.  EXPECT A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS FIRST OVER THE WHITE MOUNTAINS AND PORTIONS OF THE
EASTERN MOGOLLON RIM TODAY WITH SLIGHT CHANCES ELSEWHERE...THEN
CHANCE SHRA/TSRA AS FAR NORTH AS FLAGSTAFF WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY...THEN TO THE GRAND CANYON COUNTRY BY THE WEEKEND. SOME OF
THE THUNDERSTORMS THAT INITIALLY FORM WILL BE HIGH BASED WITH THE
POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE STRONG THUNDERSTORM OUTFLOW WINDS...THEN WETTER
STORMS WILL REPLACE THE HIGHER BASED STORMS AS THE MOISTURE
PROGRESSES NORTHWESTWARD.

THE BEST SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE IS FORECAST FROM THE
COCONINO PLATEAU...MOGOLLON RIM...AND WHITE MOUNTAINS SOUTHWARD
THROUGH THIS FORECAST PERIOD.
&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 12Z  PACKAGE...PRIMARILY VFR CONDITIONS FOR THE
NEXT 24 HOURS. AREAS FU WITH MVFR VSBYS POSSIBLE VCNTY
KSEZ...KFLG...KGCN. LOOK FOR WIDELY SCATTERED -SHRA/TSRA BTWN 18Z
TUE -03Z WEDS. WIND GUSTS TO 40 KT POSSIBLE NEAR STRONGER CONVECTIVE
CELLS. AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDMENTS.
&&

.FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC.........TC
AVIATION.......DL

FOR NORTHERN ARIZONA WEATHER INFORMATION VISIT
WEATHER.GOV/FLAGSTAFF














000
FXUS65 KFGZ 221355 CCA
AFDFGZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ
655 AM MST TUE JUL 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
BEGINNING TUESDAY...SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IS FORECAST TO
GRADUALLY INCREASE AS SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE MOVES INTO THE REGION.
EXPECT THE WARMEST TEMPERATURES TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY WITH DAYTIME
HIGH TEMPERATURES RUNNING SEVERAL DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL...THEN
DROPPING BACK TO NORMAL BY THE WEEKEND.
&&

.DISCUSSION...SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE WILL BEGIN TO RETURN TO NORTHERN
ARIZONA AS THE TROUGH ALONG THE WEST COAST WEAKENS AND MOVES EAST BY
THURSDAY. THE UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL SIT OVER WESTERN
NEW MEXICO AND THE FOUR CORNERS REGION...AND DUE TO THE CLOCKWISE
CIRCULATION AROUND THE UPPER LEVEL HIGH...THIS CIRCULATION WILL TEND
TO DRAW DEEPER MOISTURE OVER NORTHERN MEXICO NORTHWARD INTO NORTHERN
ARIZONA. CURRENTLY 1.0"+ PW AIR HAS MOVED NORTHWARD INTO SOUTHERN
SECTIONS OF THE STATE...WITH 1.5"+ PW AIR OVER NORTHERN MEXICO. THIS
IS THE AIRMASS THAT IS FORECAST TO BE PULLED NORTHWARD AROUND THE
UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE.  EXPECT A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS FIRST OVER THE WHITE MOUNTAINS AND PORTIONS OF THE
EASTERN MOGOLLON RIM TODAY WITH SLIGHT CHANCES ELSEWHERE...THEN
CHANCE SHRA/TSRA AS FAR NORTH AS FLAGSTAFF WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY...THEN TO THE GRAND CANYON COUNTRY BY THE WEEKEND. SOME OF
THE THUNDERSTORMS THAT INITIALLY FORM WILL BE HIGH BASED WITH THE
POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE STRONG THUNDERSTORM OUTFLOW WINDS...THEN WETTER
STORMS WILL REPLACE THE HIGHER BASED STORMS AS THE MOISTURE
PROGRESSES NORTHWESTWARD.

THE BEST SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE IS FORECAST FROM THE
COCONINO PLATEAU...MOGOLLON RIM...AND WHITE MOUNTAINS SOUTHWARD
THROUGH THIS FORECAST PERIOD.
&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 12Z  PACKAGE...PRIMARILY VFR CONDITIONS FOR THE
NEXT 24 HOURS. AREAS FU WITH MVFR VSBYS POSSIBLE VCNTY
KSEZ...KFLG...KGCN. LOOK FOR WIDELY SCATTERED -SHRA/TSRA BTWN 18Z
TUE -03Z WEDS. WIND GUSTS TO 40 KT POSSIBLE NEAR STRONGER CONVECTIVE
CELLS. AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDMENTS.
&&

.FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC.........TC
AVIATION.......DL

FOR NORTHERN ARIZONA WEATHER INFORMATION VISIT
WEATHER.GOV/FLAGSTAFF














000
FXUS65 KFGZ 221355 CCA
AFDFGZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ
655 AM MST TUE JUL 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
BEGINNING TUESDAY...SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IS FORECAST TO
GRADUALLY INCREASE AS SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE MOVES INTO THE REGION.
EXPECT THE WARMEST TEMPERATURES TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY WITH DAYTIME
HIGH TEMPERATURES RUNNING SEVERAL DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL...THEN
DROPPING BACK TO NORMAL BY THE WEEKEND.
&&

.DISCUSSION...SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE WILL BEGIN TO RETURN TO NORTHERN
ARIZONA AS THE TROUGH ALONG THE WEST COAST WEAKENS AND MOVES EAST BY
THURSDAY. THE UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL SIT OVER WESTERN
NEW MEXICO AND THE FOUR CORNERS REGION...AND DUE TO THE CLOCKWISE
CIRCULATION AROUND THE UPPER LEVEL HIGH...THIS CIRCULATION WILL TEND
TO DRAW DEEPER MOISTURE OVER NORTHERN MEXICO NORTHWARD INTO NORTHERN
ARIZONA. CURRENTLY 1.0"+ PW AIR HAS MOVED NORTHWARD INTO SOUTHERN
SECTIONS OF THE STATE...WITH 1.5"+ PW AIR OVER NORTHERN MEXICO. THIS
IS THE AIRMASS THAT IS FORECAST TO BE PULLED NORTHWARD AROUND THE
UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE.  EXPECT A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS FIRST OVER THE WHITE MOUNTAINS AND PORTIONS OF THE
EASTERN MOGOLLON RIM TODAY WITH SLIGHT CHANCES ELSEWHERE...THEN
CHANCE SHRA/TSRA AS FAR NORTH AS FLAGSTAFF WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY...THEN TO THE GRAND CANYON COUNTRY BY THE WEEKEND. SOME OF
THE THUNDERSTORMS THAT INITIALLY FORM WILL BE HIGH BASED WITH THE
POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE STRONG THUNDERSTORM OUTFLOW WINDS...THEN WETTER
STORMS WILL REPLACE THE HIGHER BASED STORMS AS THE MOISTURE
PROGRESSES NORTHWESTWARD.

THE BEST SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE IS FORECAST FROM THE
COCONINO PLATEAU...MOGOLLON RIM...AND WHITE MOUNTAINS SOUTHWARD
THROUGH THIS FORECAST PERIOD.
&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 12Z  PACKAGE...PRIMARILY VFR CONDITIONS FOR THE
NEXT 24 HOURS. AREAS FU WITH MVFR VSBYS POSSIBLE VCNTY
KSEZ...KFLG...KGCN. LOOK FOR WIDELY SCATTERED -SHRA/TSRA BTWN 18Z
TUE -03Z WEDS. WIND GUSTS TO 40 KT POSSIBLE NEAR STRONGER CONVECTIVE
CELLS. AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDMENTS.
&&

.FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC.........TC
AVIATION.......DL

FOR NORTHERN ARIZONA WEATHER INFORMATION VISIT
WEATHER.GOV/FLAGSTAFF














000
FXUS65 KFGZ 221355 CCA
AFDFGZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ
655 AM MST TUE JUL 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
BEGINNING TUESDAY...SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IS FORECAST TO
GRADUALLY INCREASE AS SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE MOVES INTO THE REGION.
EXPECT THE WARMEST TEMPERATURES TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY WITH DAYTIME
HIGH TEMPERATURES RUNNING SEVERAL DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL...THEN
DROPPING BACK TO NORMAL BY THE WEEKEND.
&&

.DISCUSSION...SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE WILL BEGIN TO RETURN TO NORTHERN
ARIZONA AS THE TROUGH ALONG THE WEST COAST WEAKENS AND MOVES EAST BY
THURSDAY. THE UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL SIT OVER WESTERN
NEW MEXICO AND THE FOUR CORNERS REGION...AND DUE TO THE CLOCKWISE
CIRCULATION AROUND THE UPPER LEVEL HIGH...THIS CIRCULATION WILL TEND
TO DRAW DEEPER MOISTURE OVER NORTHERN MEXICO NORTHWARD INTO NORTHERN
ARIZONA. CURRENTLY 1.0"+ PW AIR HAS MOVED NORTHWARD INTO SOUTHERN
SECTIONS OF THE STATE...WITH 1.5"+ PW AIR OVER NORTHERN MEXICO. THIS
IS THE AIRMASS THAT IS FORECAST TO BE PULLED NORTHWARD AROUND THE
UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE.  EXPECT A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS FIRST OVER THE WHITE MOUNTAINS AND PORTIONS OF THE
EASTERN MOGOLLON RIM TODAY WITH SLIGHT CHANCES ELSEWHERE...THEN
CHANCE SHRA/TSRA AS FAR NORTH AS FLAGSTAFF WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY...THEN TO THE GRAND CANYON COUNTRY BY THE WEEKEND. SOME OF
THE THUNDERSTORMS THAT INITIALLY FORM WILL BE HIGH BASED WITH THE
POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE STRONG THUNDERSTORM OUTFLOW WINDS...THEN WETTER
STORMS WILL REPLACE THE HIGHER BASED STORMS AS THE MOISTURE
PROGRESSES NORTHWESTWARD.

THE BEST SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE IS FORECAST FROM THE
COCONINO PLATEAU...MOGOLLON RIM...AND WHITE MOUNTAINS SOUTHWARD
THROUGH THIS FORECAST PERIOD.
&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 12Z  PACKAGE...PRIMARILY VFR CONDITIONS FOR THE
NEXT 24 HOURS. AREAS FU WITH MVFR VSBYS POSSIBLE VCNTY
KSEZ...KFLG...KGCN. LOOK FOR WIDELY SCATTERED -SHRA/TSRA BTWN 18Z
TUE -03Z WEDS. WIND GUSTS TO 40 KT POSSIBLE NEAR STRONGER CONVECTIVE
CELLS. AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDMENTS.
&&

.FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC.........TC
AVIATION.......DL

FOR NORTHERN ARIZONA WEATHER INFORMATION VISIT
WEATHER.GOV/FLAGSTAFF














000
FXUS65 KTWC 221222 CCA
AFDTWC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ
250 AM MST TUE JUL 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...EXPECT ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS MOSTLY EAST
AND SOUTH OF TUCSON THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THIS WEEK. MUCH HOTTER
TEMPERATURES WILL OCCUR TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...WITH NEAR RECORD
HIGHS POSSIBLE. AN INCREASE IN THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY SHOULD OCCUR
LATE IN THE WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND.

&&

.DISCUSSION...MODELS CONTINUED TO SUGGEST A SLIGHT INCREASE IN
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES TODAY AS THE UPPER HIGH SHIFTS TO A POSITION
CENTERED NEAR THE FOUR CORNERS. PWAT VALUES WERE ON THE INCREASE
WITH DEEPER MOISTURE POOLED SOUTH OF THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER
STARTING TO ADVECT NORTHWARD EARLY THIS MORNING. AFTERNOON
TEMPERATURES WILL ALSO BE ON THE INCREASE TODAY AND WEDNESDAY AS
THICKNESS VALUES JUMP UP IN RESPONSE TO THE UPPER HIGH BUILDING
NORTHWARD. A COMBINATION OF INCREASING MOISTURE AND WARMER AFTERNOON
TEMPERATURES SHOULD TRANSLATE TO BETTER THUNDERSTORM CHANCES
WEDNESDAY AREAWIDE. ON THURSDAY...MODELS SHOWED THE DEEPER MOISTURE
SPREADING WESTWARD TO THE COLORADO RIVER VALLEY WITH DRIER AIR
ENTERING EASTERN SECTIONS. BY THIS WEEKEND...MODELS TRACK AN UPPER
LEVEL DISTURBANCE THROUGH MEXICO WHICH WILL LIKELY BRING A
NOTICEABLE UPSWING IN THUNDERSTORMS ACTIVITY. THEREAFTER...A
DOWNWARD TREND IN THUNDERSTORMS WILL COMMENCE. HIGH TEMPERATURES
WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD...BUT THE
WARMEST DAYS WILL OCCUR WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...WHEN READINGS
WILL BE 8 TO 12 DEGS ABOVE NORMAL. OTHERWISE...EXPECT HIGHS TO BE 3
TO 6 DEGS ABOVE NORMAL. LOWS GENERALLY 4 TO 6 DEGS ABOVE NORMAL EACH
DAY...BUT THE WARMEST MORNINGS SHOULD OCCUR WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...VALID THRU 23/12Z.
ISOLATED -TSRA/-SHRA WILL OCCUR MOSTLY EAST AND SOUTH OF KTUS THIS
AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING. BRIEF WIND GUSTS TO NEAR 35 KTS
MAY OCCUR WITH THIS ACTIVITY. OTHERWISE...EXPECT MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES
WEST OF KTUS AND A FEW TO BROKEN CLOUDS MAINLY ABOVE 10K FT AGL EAST
TO SOUTH OF KTUS INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING. AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT
UPDATED FOR TAF AMENDMENTS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...ISOLATED SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IS
EXPECTED STARTING TODAY...ESPECIALLY SOUTH AND EAST OF TUCSON. THE
BEST CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL SHIFT A BIT WESTWARD
ON WEDNESDAY TO INCLUDE THE TUCSON AREA. THERE WILL PERHAPS BE A
BRIEF DOWNTURN IN STORM COVERAGE THURSDAY BEFORE A MORE TYPICAL
MONSOON PATTERN MOVES IN LATE THIS WEEK AND THIS WEEKEND WITH
SCATTERED MAINLY AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
EXPECT STRONG...GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS WITH THE STRONGER
THUNDERSTORMS. HOTTER TEMPERATURES WILL ALSO OCCUR THROUGH THURSDAY
FOLLOWED BY A COOLING TREND BY THE WEEKEND.

&&

.TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...YOUTUBE...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/TUCSON









000
FXUS65 KPSR 221146
AFDPSR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PHOENIX AZ
445 AM MST TUE JUL 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A STRONG HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP OVER THE REGION
THIS WEEK...RESULTING IN VERY HOT TEMPERATURES BY WEDNESDAY. AT THE
SAME TIME...MONSOON MOISTURE WILL SLOWLY INCREASE OVER THE AREA...
WITH OCCASIONAL CLOUDINESS AT TIMES. INCREASED MOISTURE LEVELS...
COMBINED WITH SEVERAL WEAK WEATHER DISTURBANCES FROM MEXICO...ARE
FORECAST TO INCREASE THE CHANCE OF AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS...MAINLY ACROSS ARIZONA.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
THE FOCUS OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS THROUGH THURSDAY IS ON JUST HOW HOT
IS IS GOING TO GET. A BROAD UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONE IS CURRENTLY
PARKED OVER NEW MEXICO AND COLORADO...COMPLETE WITH A 596-600DM
HIGH CENTER. WITH THE INCREASE IN 500MB HEIGHTS...THIS WILL
DEFINITELY KEEP THE TEMPS OVER THE DESERT SOUTHWEST VERY HOT.

CURRENT IR/WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A LIMITED SWATH OF
DEBRIS CLOUDS FROM EARLIER CONVECTION OVER SONORA AND CHIHUAHUA
MEXICO THAT IS BEGINNING TO STREAM NORTHWARD IN THE ANTICYCLONIC
FLOW ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF OUR CWA. PREVIOUS MODEL RUNS HAD
THIS MID-HIGH LEVEL CLOUD COVER CONSIDERABLY MORE OPAQUE AND THE
AMOUNT/EXTENT OF COVERAGE FURTHER WEST COVERING MOST OF SOUTH
CENTRAL ARIZONA BY THIS TIME.

HOWEVER...WITH THE CLOUD COVER LACKING...THE EXPECTED DAYTIME
REDUCTION IN DAYTIME IS NOW IN QUESTION. THERE IS NO DOUBT THAT
SOUTHEAST CA AND SOUTHWEST AZ WILL HAVE FULL SUNSHINE TODAY FOR A
SUBSTANTIAL WARM-UP...AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES RANGING 109-113 DEGREES
FOR THE LOWER DESERTS NEAR IMPERIAL/BLYTHE/YUMA. DEPENDING ON THE
AMOUNT OF HIGH CLOUDS THAT MATERIALIZE LATER TODAY ACROSS
SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA...THERE COULD BE SUFFICIENT INSOLATION TO BUMP
FORECAST MAX TEMPS UP A COUPLE DEGREES. RIGHT NOW...109 IS FORECAST
FOR PHOENIX...BUT IT MIGHT ENDING UP TO BE A BIT WARMER AT MANY
LOCATIONS. THE AMOUNT OF CLOUD COVER...AND HOW HOT IT GETS TODAY
WILL INDICATE HOW EFFECTIVELY WE CAN COOL OFF OVERNIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY MORNING...AND IT WILL DICTATE IF THE EXCESSIVE HEAT WATCH
SHOULD BE UPGRADED TO A WARNING FOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.

THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW IS ALSO PROGGED TO BECOME MORE EASTERLY TO
SOUTHEASTERLY WITH TIME...ALONG WITH A GRADUAL MOISTURE INCREASE.
THE 03Z KPSR RAOB FROM YESTERDAY EVENING REVEALED A SWITCH FROM
SOUTHWEST TO EAST HAS ALREADY TAKEN PLACE IN THE MID-LEVEL FLOW.
EVEN THOUGH THE SOUNDING SHOWED LITTLE CHANGE IN PRECIPITABLE WATER
AT 0.85 INCHES...MODEL FORECAST SOUNDINGS STILL SUGGEST THAT
ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE WILL STEADILY INCREASE TO AROUND 1.30 INCHES
OVER THE SOUTHWEST DESERTS BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. SOME LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE IS STARTING TO SNEAK BACK INTO THE AREA...AS SURFACE DEW
POINT TEMPERATURES ARE NOW 7-10 DEGREES HIGHER THAN THIS TIME
YESTERDAY MORNING ACROSS SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA. YET...GIVEN THE SLOW
INCREASE IN MOISTURE...NOT EXPECTING MUCH TO CHANGE IN PRECIPITATION
CHANCES FOR LATER TODAY. STILL LOOKING AT THE BEST CHANCES OF
AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER EASTERN
ARIZONA...WITH ONLY ISOLATED STORMS WELL EAST OF PHOENIX OVER THE
HIGHER TERRAIN OF SOUTHERN GILA COUNTY.

WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...
AGAIN...THE BEST PERFORMING TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE CONTINUES THE
AFTERNOON WARM-UP INTO NEAR RECORD BREAKING TERRITORY WEDNESDAY
AND THURSDAY. THIS DESPITE MODEL GUIDANCE OF MORE CONVECTIVE DEBRIS
CLOUDS AND SLIGHTLY HIGHER HUMIDITIES. IN FACT...THE UPPER LEVEL
WIND FIELD ALONG WESTERN EDGE OF THE 300/250 MB ANTICYCLONES...OVER
CENTRAL AZ...INDICATE A LITTLE SPEED DIVERGENCE OR ACCELERATING
WIND FROM SOUTH TO NORTH THAT COULD SUPPORT A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS OR
SPRINKLES IN SOUTH CENTRAL AZ WED MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON.

SINCE THERE IS A LOT OF VARIABILITY IN CLOUD FORECASTS...AND EVEN
PRECIPITATION CHANCES...AND THE BEST PERFORMING AFTERNOON TEMP
GUIDANCE IS STILL BULLISH ON HIGHER VALUES...THE EXCESSIVE HEAT
WATCH WILL CONTINUE FOR THIS TIME PERIOD. HOWEVER...THE WATCH COULD
BE UPGRADED TO A WARNING IF LESS CLOUD COVER ARRIVES TO MITIGATE THE
WARMTH. SOUTHEAST CA AND SOUTHWEST AZ WILL BE IN FULL SUNSHINE FOR
MUCH HIGHER AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES.

FRIDAY THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.
A MUCH STRONGER EAST TO SOUTHEAST MID/UPPER LEVEL WIND FIELD IS
FORECAST TO DEVELOP...REPLETE WITH HARD TO TIME PERTURBATIONS OR
INVERTED TROFS FLOWING MAINLY ACROSS SOUTHERN AZ. THIS COULD PORTEND
AND UPSWING IN TYPICAL MONSOON DIURNAL CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY. PRECIP
PROBABILITIES WERE ADDED TO PORTIONS OF SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH CENTRAL
AZ.

&&

.CLIMATE...

RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURE FOR THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK.

CITY        JULY 22       JULY 23      JULY 24
----        -------       -------      -------
PHOENIX   116 IN 2006   114 IN 2006  114 IN 2006
YUMA      116 IN 2006   115 IN 1959  117 IN 1943

&&

.AVIATION...
SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA INCLUDING KPHX...KIWA...AND KSDL...
MID AND HIGH CLOUDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE THROUGH TONIGHT. GIVEN
THE RELATIVELY DRY CONDITIONS AT THE SURFACE...AREAS OF VIRGA ARE A
POSSIBILITY...WHICH MAY PRODUCE LOCALIZED GUSTY WINDS.
HOWEVER...WINDS WILL GENERALLY REMAIN LIGHT AND DIURNAL THROUGH THE
TAF PERIOD.

SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA AND SOUTHWEST ARIZONA INCLUDING KIPL AND KBLH...
NO AVIATION IMPACTS EXPECTED WITH LIGHT WINDS AND OCCASIONAL MID AND
HIGH CLOUDS.

AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDED TAFS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY...
STRONG HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN THE PREDOMINANT WEATHER FEATURE
ACROSS THE REGION. BIGGEST IMPACT WILL BE THE HEAT...WITH ABOVE
NORMAL TEMPERATURES LIKELY THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE TREND WILL
BE TOWARDS INCREASING MOISTURE EACH DAY...THOUGH THUNDERSTORMS WILL
MAINLY BE CONCENTRATED IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF EASTERN AZ. ACROSS
THE LOWER DESERTS OF AZ...ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE
POSSIBLE...PARTICULARLY DURING THE WEEKEND...THOUGH THE GREATER
THREAT IS FOR OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES CAPABLE OF PRODUCING STRONG WIND
GUSTS. FURTHER WEST ACROSS SE CA...THE CHANCE FOR RAIN AND
THUNDERSTORM IMPACTS WILL BE EVEN LOWER. MINIMUM HUMIDITIES WILL
GENERALLY FALL INTO A 15-20 PERCENT RANGE WITH GOOD OVERNIGHT
RECOVERY.

&&

.PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

AZ...EXCESSIVE HEAT WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY
EVENING AZZ020>023-025>028.

CA...EXCESSIVE HEAT WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY
EVENING CAZ031>033.

&&

$$

VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/PHOENIX

DISCUSSION...MEYERS/VASQUEZ
CLIMATE...MO
AVIATION....HIRSCH
FIRE WEATHER...HIRSCH





000
FXUS65 KPSR 221146
AFDPSR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PHOENIX AZ
445 AM MST TUE JUL 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A STRONG HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP OVER THE REGION
THIS WEEK...RESULTING IN VERY HOT TEMPERATURES BY WEDNESDAY. AT THE
SAME TIME...MONSOON MOISTURE WILL SLOWLY INCREASE OVER THE AREA...
WITH OCCASIONAL CLOUDINESS AT TIMES. INCREASED MOISTURE LEVELS...
COMBINED WITH SEVERAL WEAK WEATHER DISTURBANCES FROM MEXICO...ARE
FORECAST TO INCREASE THE CHANCE OF AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS...MAINLY ACROSS ARIZONA.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
THE FOCUS OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS THROUGH THURSDAY IS ON JUST HOW HOT
IS IS GOING TO GET. A BROAD UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONE IS CURRENTLY
PARKED OVER NEW MEXICO AND COLORADO...COMPLETE WITH A 596-600DM
HIGH CENTER. WITH THE INCREASE IN 500MB HEIGHTS...THIS WILL
DEFINITELY KEEP THE TEMPS OVER THE DESERT SOUTHWEST VERY HOT.

CURRENT IR/WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A LIMITED SWATH OF
DEBRIS CLOUDS FROM EARLIER CONVECTION OVER SONORA AND CHIHUAHUA
MEXICO THAT IS BEGINNING TO STREAM NORTHWARD IN THE ANTICYCLONIC
FLOW ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF OUR CWA. PREVIOUS MODEL RUNS HAD
THIS MID-HIGH LEVEL CLOUD COVER CONSIDERABLY MORE OPAQUE AND THE
AMOUNT/EXTENT OF COVERAGE FURTHER WEST COVERING MOST OF SOUTH
CENTRAL ARIZONA BY THIS TIME.

HOWEVER...WITH THE CLOUD COVER LACKING...THE EXPECTED DAYTIME
REDUCTION IN DAYTIME IS NOW IN QUESTION. THERE IS NO DOUBT THAT
SOUTHEAST CA AND SOUTHWEST AZ WILL HAVE FULL SUNSHINE TODAY FOR A
SUBSTANTIAL WARM-UP...AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES RANGING 109-113 DEGREES
FOR THE LOWER DESERTS NEAR IMPERIAL/BLYTHE/YUMA. DEPENDING ON THE
AMOUNT OF HIGH CLOUDS THAT MATERIALIZE LATER TODAY ACROSS
SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA...THERE COULD BE SUFFICIENT INSOLATION TO BUMP
FORECAST MAX TEMPS UP A COUPLE DEGREES. RIGHT NOW...109 IS FORECAST
FOR PHOENIX...BUT IT MIGHT ENDING UP TO BE A BIT WARMER AT MANY
LOCATIONS. THE AMOUNT OF CLOUD COVER...AND HOW HOT IT GETS TODAY
WILL INDICATE HOW EFFECTIVELY WE CAN COOL OFF OVERNIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY MORNING...AND IT WILL DICTATE IF THE EXCESSIVE HEAT WATCH
SHOULD BE UPGRADED TO A WARNING FOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.

THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW IS ALSO PROGGED TO BECOME MORE EASTERLY TO
SOUTHEASTERLY WITH TIME...ALONG WITH A GRADUAL MOISTURE INCREASE.
THE 03Z KPSR RAOB FROM YESTERDAY EVENING REVEALED A SWITCH FROM
SOUTHWEST TO EAST HAS ALREADY TAKEN PLACE IN THE MID-LEVEL FLOW.
EVEN THOUGH THE SOUNDING SHOWED LITTLE CHANGE IN PRECIPITABLE WATER
AT 0.85 INCHES...MODEL FORECAST SOUNDINGS STILL SUGGEST THAT
ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE WILL STEADILY INCREASE TO AROUND 1.30 INCHES
OVER THE SOUTHWEST DESERTS BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. SOME LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE IS STARTING TO SNEAK BACK INTO THE AREA...AS SURFACE DEW
POINT TEMPERATURES ARE NOW 7-10 DEGREES HIGHER THAN THIS TIME
YESTERDAY MORNING ACROSS SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA. YET...GIVEN THE SLOW
INCREASE IN MOISTURE...NOT EXPECTING MUCH TO CHANGE IN PRECIPITATION
CHANCES FOR LATER TODAY. STILL LOOKING AT THE BEST CHANCES OF
AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER EASTERN
ARIZONA...WITH ONLY ISOLATED STORMS WELL EAST OF PHOENIX OVER THE
HIGHER TERRAIN OF SOUTHERN GILA COUNTY.

WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...
AGAIN...THE BEST PERFORMING TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE CONTINUES THE
AFTERNOON WARM-UP INTO NEAR RECORD BREAKING TERRITORY WEDNESDAY
AND THURSDAY. THIS DESPITE MODEL GUIDANCE OF MORE CONVECTIVE DEBRIS
CLOUDS AND SLIGHTLY HIGHER HUMIDITIES. IN FACT...THE UPPER LEVEL
WIND FIELD ALONG WESTERN EDGE OF THE 300/250 MB ANTICYCLONES...OVER
CENTRAL AZ...INDICATE A LITTLE SPEED DIVERGENCE OR ACCELERATING
WIND FROM SOUTH TO NORTH THAT COULD SUPPORT A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS OR
SPRINKLES IN SOUTH CENTRAL AZ WED MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON.

SINCE THERE IS A LOT OF VARIABILITY IN CLOUD FORECASTS...AND EVEN
PRECIPITATION CHANCES...AND THE BEST PERFORMING AFTERNOON TEMP
GUIDANCE IS STILL BULLISH ON HIGHER VALUES...THE EXCESSIVE HEAT
WATCH WILL CONTINUE FOR THIS TIME PERIOD. HOWEVER...THE WATCH COULD
BE UPGRADED TO A WARNING IF LESS CLOUD COVER ARRIVES TO MITIGATE THE
WARMTH. SOUTHEAST CA AND SOUTHWEST AZ WILL BE IN FULL SUNSHINE FOR
MUCH HIGHER AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES.

FRIDAY THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.
A MUCH STRONGER EAST TO SOUTHEAST MID/UPPER LEVEL WIND FIELD IS
FORECAST TO DEVELOP...REPLETE WITH HARD TO TIME PERTURBATIONS OR
INVERTED TROFS FLOWING MAINLY ACROSS SOUTHERN AZ. THIS COULD PORTEND
AND UPSWING IN TYPICAL MONSOON DIURNAL CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY. PRECIP
PROBABILITIES WERE ADDED TO PORTIONS OF SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH CENTRAL
AZ.

&&

.CLIMATE...

RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURE FOR THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK.

CITY        JULY 22       JULY 23      JULY 24
----        -------       -------      -------
PHOENIX   116 IN 2006   114 IN 2006  114 IN 2006
YUMA      116 IN 2006   115 IN 1959  117 IN 1943

&&

.AVIATION...
SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA INCLUDING KPHX...KIWA...AND KSDL...
MID AND HIGH CLOUDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE THROUGH TONIGHT. GIVEN
THE RELATIVELY DRY CONDITIONS AT THE SURFACE...AREAS OF VIRGA ARE A
POSSIBILITY...WHICH MAY PRODUCE LOCALIZED GUSTY WINDS.
HOWEVER...WINDS WILL GENERALLY REMAIN LIGHT AND DIURNAL THROUGH THE
TAF PERIOD.

SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA AND SOUTHWEST ARIZONA INCLUDING KIPL AND KBLH...
NO AVIATION IMPACTS EXPECTED WITH LIGHT WINDS AND OCCASIONAL MID AND
HIGH CLOUDS.

AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDED TAFS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY...
STRONG HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN THE PREDOMINANT WEATHER FEATURE
ACROSS THE REGION. BIGGEST IMPACT WILL BE THE HEAT...WITH ABOVE
NORMAL TEMPERATURES LIKELY THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE TREND WILL
BE TOWARDS INCREASING MOISTURE EACH DAY...THOUGH THUNDERSTORMS WILL
MAINLY BE CONCENTRATED IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF EASTERN AZ. ACROSS
THE LOWER DESERTS OF AZ...ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE
POSSIBLE...PARTICULARLY DURING THE WEEKEND...THOUGH THE GREATER
THREAT IS FOR OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES CAPABLE OF PRODUCING STRONG WIND
GUSTS. FURTHER WEST ACROSS SE CA...THE CHANCE FOR RAIN AND
THUNDERSTORM IMPACTS WILL BE EVEN LOWER. MINIMUM HUMIDITIES WILL
GENERALLY FALL INTO A 15-20 PERCENT RANGE WITH GOOD OVERNIGHT
RECOVERY.

&&

.PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

AZ...EXCESSIVE HEAT WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY
EVENING AZZ020>023-025>028.

CA...EXCESSIVE HEAT WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY
EVENING CAZ031>033.

&&

$$

VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/PHOENIX

DISCUSSION...MEYERS/VASQUEZ
CLIMATE...MO
AVIATION....HIRSCH
FIRE WEATHER...HIRSCH






000
FXUS65 KPSR 221119 CCA
AFDPSR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PHOENIX AZ
419 AM MST TUE JUL 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A STRONG HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP OVER THE REGION
THIS WEEK...RESULTING IN VERY HOT TEMPERATURES BY WEDNESDAY. AT THE
SAME TIME...MONSOON MOISTURE WILL SLOWLY INCREASE OVER THE AREA...
WITH OCCASIONAL CLOUDINESS AT TIMES. INCREASED MOISTURE LEVELS...
COMBINED WITH SEVERAL WEAK WEATHER DISTURBANCES FROM MEXICO...ARE
FORECAST TO INCREASE THE CHANCE OF AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS...MAINLY ACROSS ARIZONA.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
THE FOCUS OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS THROUGH THURSDAY IS ON JUST HOW HOT
IS IS GOING TO GET. A BROAD UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONE IS CURRENTLY
PARKED OVER NEW MEXICO AND COLORADO...COMPLETE WITH A 596-600DM
HIGH CENTER. WITH THE INCREASE IN 500MB HEIGHTS...THIS WILL
DEFINITELY KEEP THE TEMPS OVER THE DESERT SOUTHWEST VERY HOT.

CURRENT IR/WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A LIMITED SWATH OF
DEBRIS CLOUDS FROM EARLIER CONVECTION OVER SONORA AND CHIHUAHUA
MEXICO THAT IS BEGINNING TO STREAM NORTHWARD IN THE ANTICYCLONIC
FLOW ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF OUR CWA. PREVIOUS MODEL RUNS HAD
THIS MID-HIGH LEVEL CLOUD COVER CONSIDERABLY MORE OPAQUE AND THE
AMOUNT/EXTENT OF COVERAGE FURTHER WEST COVERING MOST OF SOUTH
CENTRAL ARIZONA BY THIS TIME.

HOWEVER...WITH THE CLOUD COVER LACKING...THE EXPECTED DAYTIME
REDUCTION IN DAYTIME IS NOW IN QUESTION. THERE IS NO DOUBT THAT
SOUTHEAST CA AND SOUTHWEST AZ WILL HAVE FULL SUNSHINE TODAY FOR A
SUBSTANTIAL WARM-UP...AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES RANGING 109-113 DEGREES
FOR THE LOWER DESERTS NEAR IMPERIAL/BLYTHE/YUMA. DEPENDING ON THE
AMOUNT OF HIGH CLOUDS THAT MATERIALIZE LATER TODAY ACROSS
SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA...THERE COULD BE SUFFICIENT INSOLATION TO BUMP
FORECAST MAX TEMPS UP A COUPLE DEGREES. RIGHT NOW...109 IS FORECAST
FOR PHOENIX...BUT IT MIGHT ENDING UP TO BE A BIT WARMER AT MANY
LOCATIONS. THE AMOUNT OF CLOUD COVER...AND HOW HOT IT GETS TODAY
WILL INDICATE HOW EFFECTIVELY WE CAN COOL OFF OVERNIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY MORNING...AND IT WILL DICTATE IF THE EXCESSIVE HEAT WATCH
SHOULD BE UPGRADED TO A WARNING FOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.

THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW IS ALSO PROGGED TO BECOME MORE EASTERLY TO
SOUTHEASTERLY WITH TIME...ALONG WITH A GRADUAL MOISTURE INCREASE.
THE 03Z KPSR RAOB FROM YESTERDAY EVENING REVEALED A SWITCH FROM
SOUTHWEST TO EAST HAS ALREADY TAKEN PLACE IN THE MID-LEVEL FLOW.
EVEN THOUGH THE SOUNDING SHOWED LITTLE CHANGE IN PRECIPITABLE WATER
AT 0.85 INCHES...MODEL FORECAST SOUNDINGS STILL SUGGEST THAT
ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE WILL STEADILY INCREASE TO AROUND 1.30 INCHES
OVER THE SOUTHWEST DESERTS BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. SOME LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE IS STARTING TO SNEAK BACK INTO THE AREA...AS SURFACE DEW
POINT TEMPERATURES ARE NOW 7-10 DEGREES HIGHER THAN THIS TIME
YESTERDAY MORNING ACROSS SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA. YET..GIVEN THE SLOW
INCREASE IN MOISTURE...NOT EXPECTING MUCH TO CHANGE IN PRECIPITATION
CHANCES FOR LATER TODAY. STILL LOOKING AT THE BEST CHANCES OF
AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER EASTERN
ARIZONA...WITH ONLY ISOLATED STORMS WELL EAST OF PHOENIX OVER THE
HIGHER TERRAIN OF SOUTHERN GILA COUNTY.

WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...
AGAIN...THE BEST PERFORMING TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE CONTINUES THE
AFTERNOON WARM-UP INTO NEAR RECORD BREAKING TERRITORY WEDNESDAY
AND THURSDAY. THIS DESPITE MODEL GUIDANCE OF MORE CONVECTIVE DEBRIS
CLOUDS AND SLIGHTLY HIGHER HUMIDITIES. IN FACT...THE UPPER LEVEL
WIND FIELD ALONG WESTERN EDGE OF THE 300/250 MB ANTICYCLONES...OVER
CENTRAL AZ...INDICATE A LITTLE SPEED DIVERGENCE OR ACCELERATING
WIND FROM SOUTH TO NORTH THAT COULD SUPPORT A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS OR
SPRINKLES IN SOUTH CENTRAL AZ WED MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON.

SINCE THERE IS A LOT OF VARIABILITY IN CLOUD FORECASTS...AND EVEN
PRECIPITATION CHANCES...AND THE BEST PERFORMING AFTERNOON TEMP
GUIDANCE IS STILL BULLISH ON HIGHER VALUES...THE EXCESSIVE HEAT
WATCH WILL CONTINUE FOR THIS TIME PERIOD. HOWEVER...THE WATCH COULD
BE UPGRADED TO A WARNING IF LESS CLOUD COVER ARRIVES TO MITIGATE THE
WARMTH. SOUTHEAST CA AND SOUTHWEST AZ WILL BE IN FULL SUNSHINE FOR
MUCH HIGHER AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES.

FRIDAY THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.
A MUCH STRONGER EAST TO SOUTHEAST MID/UPPER LEVEL WIND FIELD IS
FORECAST TO DEVELOP...REPLETE WITH HARD TO TIME PERTURBATIONS OR
INVERTED TROFS FLOWING MAINLY ACROSS SOUTHERN AZ. THIS COULD PORTEND
AND UPSWING IN TYPICAL MONSOON DIURNAL CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY. PRECIP
PROBABILITIES WERE ADDED TO PORTIONS OF SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH CENTRAL
AZ.

&&

.CLIMATE...

RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURE FOR THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK.

CITY        JULY 22       JULY 23      JULY 24
----        -------       -------      -------
PHOENIX   116 IN 2006   114 IN 2006  114 IN 2006
YUMA      116 IN 2006   115 IN 1959  117 IN 1943

&&

.AVIATION...
SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA INCLUDING KPHX...KIWA...AND KSDL...
HIGH CLOUDS ANTICIPATED TO INCREASE AFTER 09Z BECOMING THICK AFTER
12Z DUE TO REMNANT CLOUDINESS FROM FORMER THUNDERSTORMS. EXPECT
CEILINGS TO REMAIN ABOVE 12 KFT MSL THOUGH THERE MAY BE SOME VIRGA.
ANTICIPATE THINNING TUESDAY AFTERNOON. OTHERWISE WINDS WILL BE LIGHT
THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING WITH WEST WINDS DEVELOPING IN THE AFTERNOON.

SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA AND SOUTHWEST ARIZONA INCLUDING KIPL AND KBLH...
SKIES WILL REMAIN CLEAR...EXCEPT FOR FEW-SCT CIRRUS...THROUGH
TUESDAY AFTERNOON. ANTICIPATE FAMILIAR DIURNAL WIND PATTERNS THE
REST OF TONIGHT AND DURING THE DAY TUESDAY WITH LIGHT WEST AND
SOUTHWEST WINDS BECOMING SOUTHEAST AND EAST DURING THE DAY.

AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDED TAFS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY...
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE END OF THIS WEEK
AND INTO NEXT WEEK AS STRONG HIGH PRESSURE SITS OVER THE REGION.
SOME MEASURE OF MONSOON MOISTURE WILL ENTER THE PICTURE DURING THIS
PERIOD...THOUGH THE MAGNITUDE OF INCREASE AND DURATION IS STILL
UNCERTAIN. REGARDLESS...AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORM CHANCES
WILL PERIODICALLY INCREASE WITH MORE BENEFICIAL RAINFALL IN GILA
COUNTY...AND LARGER THREATS FOR GUSTY WINDS WESTWARD INTO LOWER
ELEVATION DESERTS. MINIMUM HUMIDITIES WILL GENERALLY FALL INTO A
15-20 PERCENT RANGE WITH GOOD OVERNIGHT RECOVERY. OUTSIDE OF
STRONGER WIND GUSTS PRODUCED BY THUNDERSTORM...WINDS WILL BE
GENERALLY LIGHT AND FAVOR TYPICAL DIURNAL PATTERNS.

&&




 &&

.PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

AZ...EXCESSIVE HEAT WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY
EVENING AZZ020>023-025>028.

CA...EXCESSIVE HEAT WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY
EVENING CAZ031>033.

&&

$$

VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/PHOENIX

DISCUSSION...MEYERS/VASQUEZ
CLIMATE...MO
AVIATION....AJ
FIRE WEATHER...MO





000
FXUS65 KPSR 221119 CCA
AFDPSR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PHOENIX AZ
419 AM MST TUE JUL 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A STRONG HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP OVER THE REGION
THIS WEEK...RESULTING IN VERY HOT TEMPERATURES BY WEDNESDAY. AT THE
SAME TIME...MONSOON MOISTURE WILL SLOWLY INCREASE OVER THE AREA...
WITH OCCASIONAL CLOUDINESS AT TIMES. INCREASED MOISTURE LEVELS...
COMBINED WITH SEVERAL WEAK WEATHER DISTURBANCES FROM MEXICO...ARE
FORECAST TO INCREASE THE CHANCE OF AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS...MAINLY ACROSS ARIZONA.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
THE FOCUS OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS THROUGH THURSDAY IS ON JUST HOW HOT
IS IS GOING TO GET. A BROAD UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONE IS CURRENTLY
PARKED OVER NEW MEXICO AND COLORADO...COMPLETE WITH A 596-600DM
HIGH CENTER. WITH THE INCREASE IN 500MB HEIGHTS...THIS WILL
DEFINITELY KEEP THE TEMPS OVER THE DESERT SOUTHWEST VERY HOT.

CURRENT IR/WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A LIMITED SWATH OF
DEBRIS CLOUDS FROM EARLIER CONVECTION OVER SONORA AND CHIHUAHUA
MEXICO THAT IS BEGINNING TO STREAM NORTHWARD IN THE ANTICYCLONIC
FLOW ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF OUR CWA. PREVIOUS MODEL RUNS HAD
THIS MID-HIGH LEVEL CLOUD COVER CONSIDERABLY MORE OPAQUE AND THE
AMOUNT/EXTENT OF COVERAGE FURTHER WEST COVERING MOST OF SOUTH
CENTRAL ARIZONA BY THIS TIME.

HOWEVER...WITH THE CLOUD COVER LACKING...THE EXPECTED DAYTIME
REDUCTION IN DAYTIME IS NOW IN QUESTION. THERE IS NO DOUBT THAT
SOUTHEAST CA AND SOUTHWEST AZ WILL HAVE FULL SUNSHINE TODAY FOR A
SUBSTANTIAL WARM-UP...AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES RANGING 109-113 DEGREES
FOR THE LOWER DESERTS NEAR IMPERIAL/BLYTHE/YUMA. DEPENDING ON THE
AMOUNT OF HIGH CLOUDS THAT MATERIALIZE LATER TODAY ACROSS
SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA...THERE COULD BE SUFFICIENT INSOLATION TO BUMP
FORECAST MAX TEMPS UP A COUPLE DEGREES. RIGHT NOW...109 IS FORECAST
FOR PHOENIX...BUT IT MIGHT ENDING UP TO BE A BIT WARMER AT MANY
LOCATIONS. THE AMOUNT OF CLOUD COVER...AND HOW HOT IT GETS TODAY
WILL INDICATE HOW EFFECTIVELY WE CAN COOL OFF OVERNIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY MORNING...AND IT WILL DICTATE IF THE EXCESSIVE HEAT WATCH
SHOULD BE UPGRADED TO A WARNING FOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.

THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW IS ALSO PROGGED TO BECOME MORE EASTERLY TO
SOUTHEASTERLY WITH TIME...ALONG WITH A GRADUAL MOISTURE INCREASE.
THE 03Z KPSR RAOB FROM YESTERDAY EVENING REVEALED A SWITCH FROM
SOUTHWEST TO EAST HAS ALREADY TAKEN PLACE IN THE MID-LEVEL FLOW.
EVEN THOUGH THE SOUNDING SHOWED LITTLE CHANGE IN PRECIPITABLE WATER
AT 0.85 INCHES...MODEL FORECAST SOUNDINGS STILL SUGGEST THAT
ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE WILL STEADILY INCREASE TO AROUND 1.30 INCHES
OVER THE SOUTHWEST DESERTS BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. SOME LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE IS STARTING TO SNEAK BACK INTO THE AREA...AS SURFACE DEW
POINT TEMPERATURES ARE NOW 7-10 DEGREES HIGHER THAN THIS TIME
YESTERDAY MORNING ACROSS SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA. YET..GIVEN THE SLOW
INCREASE IN MOISTURE...NOT EXPECTING MUCH TO CHANGE IN PRECIPITATION
CHANCES FOR LATER TODAY. STILL LOOKING AT THE BEST CHANCES OF
AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER EASTERN
ARIZONA...WITH ONLY ISOLATED STORMS WELL EAST OF PHOENIX OVER THE
HIGHER TERRAIN OF SOUTHERN GILA COUNTY.

WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...
AGAIN...THE BEST PERFORMING TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE CONTINUES THE
AFTERNOON WARM-UP INTO NEAR RECORD BREAKING TERRITORY WEDNESDAY
AND THURSDAY. THIS DESPITE MODEL GUIDANCE OF MORE CONVECTIVE DEBRIS
CLOUDS AND SLIGHTLY HIGHER HUMIDITIES. IN FACT...THE UPPER LEVEL
WIND FIELD ALONG WESTERN EDGE OF THE 300/250 MB ANTICYCLONES...OVER
CENTRAL AZ...INDICATE A LITTLE SPEED DIVERGENCE OR ACCELERATING
WIND FROM SOUTH TO NORTH THAT COULD SUPPORT A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS OR
SPRINKLES IN SOUTH CENTRAL AZ WED MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON.

SINCE THERE IS A LOT OF VARIABILITY IN CLOUD FORECASTS...AND EVEN
PRECIPITATION CHANCES...AND THE BEST PERFORMING AFTERNOON TEMP
GUIDANCE IS STILL BULLISH ON HIGHER VALUES...THE EXCESSIVE HEAT
WATCH WILL CONTINUE FOR THIS TIME PERIOD. HOWEVER...THE WATCH COULD
BE UPGRADED TO A WARNING IF LESS CLOUD COVER ARRIVES TO MITIGATE THE
WARMTH. SOUTHEAST CA AND SOUTHWEST AZ WILL BE IN FULL SUNSHINE FOR
MUCH HIGHER AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES.

FRIDAY THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.
A MUCH STRONGER EAST TO SOUTHEAST MID/UPPER LEVEL WIND FIELD IS
FORECAST TO DEVELOP...REPLETE WITH HARD TO TIME PERTURBATIONS OR
INVERTED TROFS FLOWING MAINLY ACROSS SOUTHERN AZ. THIS COULD PORTEND
AND UPSWING IN TYPICAL MONSOON DIURNAL CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY. PRECIP
PROBABILITIES WERE ADDED TO PORTIONS OF SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH CENTRAL
AZ.

&&

.CLIMATE...

RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURE FOR THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK.

CITY        JULY 22       JULY 23      JULY 24
----        -------       -------      -------
PHOENIX   116 IN 2006   114 IN 2006  114 IN 2006
YUMA      116 IN 2006   115 IN 1959  117 IN 1943

&&

.AVIATION...
SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA INCLUDING KPHX...KIWA...AND KSDL...
HIGH CLOUDS ANTICIPATED TO INCREASE AFTER 09Z BECOMING THICK AFTER
12Z DUE TO REMNANT CLOUDINESS FROM FORMER THUNDERSTORMS. EXPECT
CEILINGS TO REMAIN ABOVE 12 KFT MSL THOUGH THERE MAY BE SOME VIRGA.
ANTICIPATE THINNING TUESDAY AFTERNOON. OTHERWISE WINDS WILL BE LIGHT
THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING WITH WEST WINDS DEVELOPING IN THE AFTERNOON.

SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA AND SOUTHWEST ARIZONA INCLUDING KIPL AND KBLH...
SKIES WILL REMAIN CLEAR...EXCEPT FOR FEW-SCT CIRRUS...THROUGH
TUESDAY AFTERNOON. ANTICIPATE FAMILIAR DIURNAL WIND PATTERNS THE
REST OF TONIGHT AND DURING THE DAY TUESDAY WITH LIGHT WEST AND
SOUTHWEST WINDS BECOMING SOUTHEAST AND EAST DURING THE DAY.

AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDED TAFS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY...
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE END OF THIS WEEK
AND INTO NEXT WEEK AS STRONG HIGH PRESSURE SITS OVER THE REGION.
SOME MEASURE OF MONSOON MOISTURE WILL ENTER THE PICTURE DURING THIS
PERIOD...THOUGH THE MAGNITUDE OF INCREASE AND DURATION IS STILL
UNCERTAIN. REGARDLESS...AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORM CHANCES
WILL PERIODICALLY INCREASE WITH MORE BENEFICIAL RAINFALL IN GILA
COUNTY...AND LARGER THREATS FOR GUSTY WINDS WESTWARD INTO LOWER
ELEVATION DESERTS. MINIMUM HUMIDITIES WILL GENERALLY FALL INTO A
15-20 PERCENT RANGE WITH GOOD OVERNIGHT RECOVERY. OUTSIDE OF
STRONGER WIND GUSTS PRODUCED BY THUNDERSTORM...WINDS WILL BE
GENERALLY LIGHT AND FAVOR TYPICAL DIURNAL PATTERNS.

&&




 &&

.PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

AZ...EXCESSIVE HEAT WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY
EVENING AZZ020>023-025>028.

CA...EXCESSIVE HEAT WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY
EVENING CAZ031>033.

&&

$$

VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/PHOENIX

DISCUSSION...MEYERS/VASQUEZ
CLIMATE...MO
AVIATION....AJ
FIRE WEATHER...MO






000
FXUS65 KFGZ 221051
AFDFGZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ
315 AM MST TUE JUL 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
BEGINNING TUESDAY...SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IS FORECAST TO
GRADUALLY INCREASE AS SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE MOVES INTO THE REGION.
EXPECT THE WARMEST TEMPERATURES TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY WITH DAYTIME
HIGH TEMPERATURES RUNNING SEVERAL DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL...THEN
DROPPING BACK TO NORMAL BY THE WEEKEND.
&&

.DISCUSSION...SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE WILL BEGIN TO RETURN TO NORTHERN
ARIZONA AS THE TROUGH ALONG THE WEST COAST WEAKENS AND MOVES EAST BY
THURSDAY. THE UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL SIT OVER WESTERN
NEW MEXICO AND THE FOUR CORNERS REGION...AND DUE TO THE SOUTHERLY
CIRCULATION AROUND THE UPPER LEVEL HIGH...THIS CIRCULATION WILL TEND
TO DRAW DEEPER MOISTURE OVER NORTHERN MEXICO NORTHWARD INTO NORTHERN
ARIZONA. CURRENTLY 1.0"+ PW AIR HAS MOVED NORTHWARD INTO SOUTHERN
SECTIONS OF THE STATE...WITH 1.5"+ PW AIR OVER NORTHERN MEXICO. THIS
IS THE AIRMASS THAT IS FORECAST TO BE PULLED NORTHWARD AROUND THE
UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE.  EXPECT A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS FIRST OVER THE WHITE MOUNTAINS AND PORTIONS OF THE
EASTERN MOGOLLON RIM TODAY WITH SLIGHT CHANCES ELSEWHERE...THEN
CHANCE SHRA/TSRA AS FAR NORTH AS FLAGSTAFF WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY...THEN TO THE GRAND CANYON COUNTRY BY THE WEEKEND. SOME OF
THE THUNDERSTORMS THAT INITIALLY FORM WILL BE HIGH BASED WITH THE
POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE STRONG THUNDERSTORM OUTFLOW WINDS...THEN WETTER
STORMS WILL REPLACE THE HIGHER BASED STORMS AS THE MOISTURE
PROGRESSES NORTHWESTWARD.

THE BEST SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE IS FORECAST FROM THE
COCONINO PLATEAU...MOGOLLON RIM...AND WHITE MOUNTAINS SOUTHWARD
THROUGH THIS FORECAST PERIOD.
&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 12Z  PACKAGE...PRIMARILY VFR CONDITIONS FOR THE
NEXT 24 HOURS. AREAS FU WITH MVFR VSBYS POSSIBLE VCNTY
KSEZ...KFLG...KGCN. LOOK FOR WIDELY SCATTERED -SHRA/TSRA BTWN 18Z
TUE -03Z WEDS. WIND GUSTS TO 40 KT POSSIBLE NEAR STRONGER CONVECTIVE
CELLS. AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDMENTS.
&&

.FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC.........TC
AVIATION.......DL

FOR NORTHERN ARIZONA WEATHER INFORMATION VISIT
WEATHER.GOV/FLAGSTAFF











000
FXUS65 KFGZ 221051
AFDFGZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ
315 AM MST TUE JUL 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
BEGINNING TUESDAY...SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IS FORECAST TO
GRADUALLY INCREASE AS SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE MOVES INTO THE REGION.
EXPECT THE WARMEST TEMPERATURES TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY WITH DAYTIME
HIGH TEMPERATURES RUNNING SEVERAL DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL...THEN
DROPPING BACK TO NORMAL BY THE WEEKEND.
&&

.DISCUSSION...SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE WILL BEGIN TO RETURN TO NORTHERN
ARIZONA AS THE TROUGH ALONG THE WEST COAST WEAKENS AND MOVES EAST BY
THURSDAY. THE UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL SIT OVER WESTERN
NEW MEXICO AND THE FOUR CORNERS REGION...AND DUE TO THE SOUTHERLY
CIRCULATION AROUND THE UPPER LEVEL HIGH...THIS CIRCULATION WILL TEND
TO DRAW DEEPER MOISTURE OVER NORTHERN MEXICO NORTHWARD INTO NORTHERN
ARIZONA. CURRENTLY 1.0"+ PW AIR HAS MOVED NORTHWARD INTO SOUTHERN
SECTIONS OF THE STATE...WITH 1.5"+ PW AIR OVER NORTHERN MEXICO. THIS
IS THE AIRMASS THAT IS FORECAST TO BE PULLED NORTHWARD AROUND THE
UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE.  EXPECT A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS FIRST OVER THE WHITE MOUNTAINS AND PORTIONS OF THE
EASTERN MOGOLLON RIM TODAY WITH SLIGHT CHANCES ELSEWHERE...THEN
CHANCE SHRA/TSRA AS FAR NORTH AS FLAGSTAFF WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY...THEN TO THE GRAND CANYON COUNTRY BY THE WEEKEND. SOME OF
THE THUNDERSTORMS THAT INITIALLY FORM WILL BE HIGH BASED WITH THE
POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE STRONG THUNDERSTORM OUTFLOW WINDS...THEN WETTER
STORMS WILL REPLACE THE HIGHER BASED STORMS AS THE MOISTURE
PROGRESSES NORTHWESTWARD.

THE BEST SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE IS FORECAST FROM THE
COCONINO PLATEAU...MOGOLLON RIM...AND WHITE MOUNTAINS SOUTHWARD
THROUGH THIS FORECAST PERIOD.
&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 12Z  PACKAGE...PRIMARILY VFR CONDITIONS FOR THE
NEXT 24 HOURS. AREAS FU WITH MVFR VSBYS POSSIBLE VCNTY
KSEZ...KFLG...KGCN. LOOK FOR WIDELY SCATTERED -SHRA/TSRA BTWN 18Z
TUE -03Z WEDS. WIND GUSTS TO 40 KT POSSIBLE NEAR STRONGER CONVECTIVE
CELLS. AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDMENTS.
&&

.FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC.........TC
AVIATION.......DL

FOR NORTHERN ARIZONA WEATHER INFORMATION VISIT
WEATHER.GOV/FLAGSTAFF










000
FXUS65 KPSR 221049
AFDPSR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PHOENIX AZ
345 AM MST TUE JUL 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A STRONG HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP OVER THE REGION
THIS WEEK...RESULTING IN VERY HOT TEMPERATURES BY WEDNESDAY. AT THE
SAME TIME...MONSOON MOISTURE WILL SLOWLY INCREASE OVER THE AREA...
WITH OCCASIONAL CLOUDINESS AT TIMES. INCREASED MOISTURE LEVELS...
COMBINED WITH SEVERAL WEAK WEATHER DISTURBANCES FROM MEXICO...ARE
FORECAST TO INCREASE THE CHANCE OF AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS...MAINLY ACROSS ARIZONA.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
THE FOCUS OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS THROUGH THURSDAY IS ON JUST HOW HOT
IS IS GOING TO GET. A BROAD UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONE IS CURRENTLY
PARKED OVER NEW MEXICO AND COLORADO...COMPLETE WITH A 596-600DM
HIGH CENTER. WITH THE INCREASE IN 500MB HEIGHTS...THIS WILL
DEFINITELY KEEP THE TEMPS OVER THE DESERT SOUTHWEST VERY HOT.

CURRENT IR/WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A LIMITED SWATH OF
DEBRIS CLOUDS FROM EARLIER CONVECTION OVER SONORA AND CHIHUAHUA
MEXICO THAT IS BEGINNING TO STREAM NORTHWARD IN THE ANTICYCLONIC
FLOW ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF OUR CWA. PREVIOUS MODEL RUNS HAD
THIS MID-HIGH LEVEL CLOUD COVER CONSIDERABLY MORE OPAQUE AND THE
AMOUNT/EXTENT OF COVERAGE FURTHER WEST COVERING MOST OF SOUTH
CENTRAL ARIZONA BY THIS TIME.

HOWEVER...WITH THE CLOUD COVER LACKING...THE EXPECTED DAYTIME
REDUCTION IN DAYTIME IS NOW IN QUESTION. THERE IS NO DOUBT THAT
SOUTHEAST CA AND SOUTHWEST AZ WILL HAVE FULL SUNSHINE TODAY FOR A
SUBSTANTIAL WARM-UP...AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES RANGING 109-113 DEGREES
FOR THE LOWER DESERTS NEAR IMPERIAL/BLYTHE/YUMA. DEPENDING ON THE
AMOUNT OF HIGH CLOUDS THAT MATERIALIZE LATER TODAY ACROSS
SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA...THERE COULD BE SUFFICIENT INSOLATION TO BUMP
FORECAST MAX TEMPS UP A COUPLE DEGREES. RIGHT NOW...109 IS FORECAST
FOR PHOENIX...BUT IT MIGHT ENDING UP TO BE A BIT WARMER AT MANY
LOCATIONS. HOW HOT IT GETS TODAY WILL DICTATE E

THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW IS ALSO PROGGED TO BECOME MORE EASTERLY TO
SOUTHEASTERLY WITH TIME...ALONG WITH A GRADUAL MOISTURE INCREASE.
THE 03Z KPSR RAOB FROM YESTERDAY EVENING REVEALED A SWITCH FROM
SOUTHWEST TO EAST HAS ALREADY TAKEN PLACE IN THE MID-LEVEL FLOW.
EVEN THOUGH THE SOUNDING SHOWED LITTLE CHANGE IN PRECIPITABLE WATER
AT 0.85 INCHES...MODEL FORECAST SOUNDINGS STILL SUGGEST THAT
ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE WILL STEADILY INCREASE TO AROUND 1.30 INCHES
OVER THE SOUTHWEST DESERTS BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. SOME LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE IS STARTING TO SNEAK BACK INTO THE AREA...AS SURFACE DEW
POINT TEMPERATURES ARE NOW 7-10 DEGREES HIGHER THAN THIS TIME
YESTERDAY MORNING ACROSS SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA. YET..GIVEN THE SLOW
INCREASE IN MOISTURE...NOT EXPECTING MUCH TO CHANGE IN PRECIPITATION
CHANCES FOR LATER TODAY. STILL LOOKING AT THE BEST CHANCES OF
AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER EASTERN
ARIZONA...WITH ONLY ISOLATED STORMS WELL EAST OF PHOENIX OVER THE
HIGHER TERRAIN OF SOUTHERN GILA COUNTY.

WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...
AGAIN...THE BEST PERFORMING TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE CONTINUES THE
AFTERNOON WARM-UP INTO NEAR RECORD BREAKING TERRITORY WEDNESDAY
AND THURSDAY. THIS DESPITE MODEL GUIDANCE OF MORE CONVECTIVE DEBRIS
CLOUDS AND SLIGHTLY HIGHER HUMIDITIES. IN FACT...THE UPPER LEVEL
WIND FIELD ALONG WESTERN EDGE OF THE 300/250 MB ANTICYCLONES...OVER
CENTRAL AZ...INDICATE A LITTLE SPEED DIVERGENCE OR ACCELERATING
WIND FROM SOUTH TO NORTH THAT COULD SUPPORT A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS OR
SPRINKLES IN SOUTH CENTRAL AZ WED MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON.

SINCE THERE IS A LOT OF VARIABILITY IN CLOUD FORECASTS...AND EVEN
PRECIPITATION CHANCES...AND THE BEST PERFORMING AFTERNOON TEMP
GUIDANCE IS STILL BULLISH ON HIGHER VALUES...THE EXCESSIVE HEAT
WATCH WILL CONTINUE FOR THIS TIME PERIOD. HOWEVER...THE WATCH COULD
BE UPGRADED TO A WARNING IF LESS CLOUD COVER ARRIVES TO MITIGATE THE
WARMTH. SOUTHEAST CA AND SOUTHWEST AZ WILL BE IN FULL SUNSHINE FOR
MUCH HIGHER AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES.

FRIDAY THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.
A MUCH STRONGER EAST TO SOUTHEAST MID/UPPER LEVEL WIND FIELD IS
FORECAST TO DEVELOP...REPLETE WITH HARD TO TIME PERTURBATIONS OR
INVERTED TROFS FLOWING MAINLY ACROSS SOUTHERN AZ. THIS COULD PORTEND
AND UPSWING IN TYPICAL MONSOON DIURNAL CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY. PRECIP
PROBABILITIES WERE ADDED TO PORTIONS OF SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH CENTRAL
AZ.

&&

.CLIMATE...

RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURE FOR THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK.

CITY        JULY 22       JULY 23      JULY 24
----        -------       -------      -------
PHOENIX   116 IN 2006   114 IN 2006  114 IN 2006
YUMA      116 IN 2006   115 IN 1959  117 IN 1943

&&

.AVIATION...
SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA INCLUDING KPHX...KIWA...AND KSDL...
HIGH CLOUDS ANTICIPATED TO INCREASE AFTER 09Z BECOMING THICK AFTER
12Z DUE TO REMNANT CLOUDINESS FROM FORMER THUNDERSTORMS. EXPECT
CEILINGS TO REMAIN ABOVE 12 KFT MSL THOUGH THERE MAY BE SOME VIRGA.
ANTICIPATE THINNING TUESDAY AFTERNOON. OTHERWISE WINDS WILL BE LIGHT
THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING WITH WEST WINDS DEVELOPING IN THE AFTERNOON.

SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA AND SOUTHWEST ARIZONA INCLUDING KIPL AND KBLH...
SKIES WILL REMAIN CLEAR...EXCEPT FOR FEW-SCT CIRRUS...THROUGH
TUESDAY AFTERNOON. ANTICIPATE FAMILIAR DIURNAL WIND PATTERNS THE
REST OF TONIGHT AND DURING THE DAY TUESDAY WITH LIGHT WEST AND
SOUTHWEST WINDS BECOMING SOUTHEAST AND EAST DURING THE DAY.

AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDED TAFS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY...
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE END OF THIS WEEK
AND INTO NEXT WEEK AS STRONG HIGH PRESSURE SITS OVER THE REGION.
SOME MEASURE OF MONSOON MOISTURE WILL ENTER THE PICTURE DURING THIS
PERIOD...THOUGH THE MAGNITUDE OF INCREASE AND DURATION IS STILL
UNCERTAIN. REGARDLESS...AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORM CHANCES
WILL PERIODICALLY INCREASE WITH MORE BENEFICIAL RAINFALL IN GILA
COUNTY...AND LARGER THREATS FOR GUSTY WINDS WESTWARD INTO LOWER
ELEVATION DESERTS. MINIMUM HUMIDITIES WILL GENERALLY FALL INTO A
15-20 PERCENT RANGE WITH GOOD OVERNIGHT RECOVERY. OUTSIDE OF
STRONGER WIND GUSTS PRODUCED BY THUNDERSTORM...WINDS WILL BE
GENERALLY LIGHT AND FAVOR TYPICAL DIURNAL PATTERNS.

&&




 &&

.PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

AZ...EXCESSIVE HEAT WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY
EVENING AZZ020>023-025>028.

CA...EXCESSIVE HEAT WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY
EVENING CAZ031>033.

&&

$$

VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/PHOENIX

DISCUSSION...MEYERS/VASQUEZ
CLIMATE...MO
AVIATION....AJ
FIRE WEATHER...MO






000
FXUS65 KPSR 221049
AFDPSR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PHOENIX AZ
345 AM MST TUE JUL 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A STRONG HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP OVER THE REGION
THIS WEEK...RESULTING IN VERY HOT TEMPERATURES BY WEDNESDAY. AT THE
SAME TIME...MONSOON MOISTURE WILL SLOWLY INCREASE OVER THE AREA...
WITH OCCASIONAL CLOUDINESS AT TIMES. INCREASED MOISTURE LEVELS...
COMBINED WITH SEVERAL WEAK WEATHER DISTURBANCES FROM MEXICO...ARE
FORECAST TO INCREASE THE CHANCE OF AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS...MAINLY ACROSS ARIZONA.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
THE FOCUS OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS THROUGH THURSDAY IS ON JUST HOW HOT
IS IS GOING TO GET. A BROAD UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONE IS CURRENTLY
PARKED OVER NEW MEXICO AND COLORADO...COMPLETE WITH A 596-600DM
HIGH CENTER. WITH THE INCREASE IN 500MB HEIGHTS...THIS WILL
DEFINITELY KEEP THE TEMPS OVER THE DESERT SOUTHWEST VERY HOT.

CURRENT IR/WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A LIMITED SWATH OF
DEBRIS CLOUDS FROM EARLIER CONVECTION OVER SONORA AND CHIHUAHUA
MEXICO THAT IS BEGINNING TO STREAM NORTHWARD IN THE ANTICYCLONIC
FLOW ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF OUR CWA. PREVIOUS MODEL RUNS HAD
THIS MID-HIGH LEVEL CLOUD COVER CONSIDERABLY MORE OPAQUE AND THE
AMOUNT/EXTENT OF COVERAGE FURTHER WEST COVERING MOST OF SOUTH
CENTRAL ARIZONA BY THIS TIME.

HOWEVER...WITH THE CLOUD COVER LACKING...THE EXPECTED DAYTIME
REDUCTION IN DAYTIME IS NOW IN QUESTION. THERE IS NO DOUBT THAT
SOUTHEAST CA AND SOUTHWEST AZ WILL HAVE FULL SUNSHINE TODAY FOR A
SUBSTANTIAL WARM-UP...AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES RANGING 109-113 DEGREES
FOR THE LOWER DESERTS NEAR IMPERIAL/BLYTHE/YUMA. DEPENDING ON THE
AMOUNT OF HIGH CLOUDS THAT MATERIALIZE LATER TODAY ACROSS
SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA...THERE COULD BE SUFFICIENT INSOLATION TO BUMP
FORECAST MAX TEMPS UP A COUPLE DEGREES. RIGHT NOW...109 IS FORECAST
FOR PHOENIX...BUT IT MIGHT ENDING UP TO BE A BIT WARMER AT MANY
LOCATIONS. HOW HOT IT GETS TODAY WILL DICTATE E

THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW IS ALSO PROGGED TO BECOME MORE EASTERLY TO
SOUTHEASTERLY WITH TIME...ALONG WITH A GRADUAL MOISTURE INCREASE.
THE 03Z KPSR RAOB FROM YESTERDAY EVENING REVEALED A SWITCH FROM
SOUTHWEST TO EAST HAS ALREADY TAKEN PLACE IN THE MID-LEVEL FLOW.
EVEN THOUGH THE SOUNDING SHOWED LITTLE CHANGE IN PRECIPITABLE WATER
AT 0.85 INCHES...MODEL FORECAST SOUNDINGS STILL SUGGEST THAT
ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE WILL STEADILY INCREASE TO AROUND 1.30 INCHES
OVER THE SOUTHWEST DESERTS BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. SOME LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE IS STARTING TO SNEAK BACK INTO THE AREA...AS SURFACE DEW
POINT TEMPERATURES ARE NOW 7-10 DEGREES HIGHER THAN THIS TIME
YESTERDAY MORNING ACROSS SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA. YET..GIVEN THE SLOW
INCREASE IN MOISTURE...NOT EXPECTING MUCH TO CHANGE IN PRECIPITATION
CHANCES FOR LATER TODAY. STILL LOOKING AT THE BEST CHANCES OF
AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER EASTERN
ARIZONA...WITH ONLY ISOLATED STORMS WELL EAST OF PHOENIX OVER THE
HIGHER TERRAIN OF SOUTHERN GILA COUNTY.

WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...
AGAIN...THE BEST PERFORMING TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE CONTINUES THE
AFTERNOON WARM-UP INTO NEAR RECORD BREAKING TERRITORY WEDNESDAY
AND THURSDAY. THIS DESPITE MODEL GUIDANCE OF MORE CONVECTIVE DEBRIS
CLOUDS AND SLIGHTLY HIGHER HUMIDITIES. IN FACT...THE UPPER LEVEL
WIND FIELD ALONG WESTERN EDGE OF THE 300/250 MB ANTICYCLONES...OVER
CENTRAL AZ...INDICATE A LITTLE SPEED DIVERGENCE OR ACCELERATING
WIND FROM SOUTH TO NORTH THAT COULD SUPPORT A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS OR
SPRINKLES IN SOUTH CENTRAL AZ WED MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON.

SINCE THERE IS A LOT OF VARIABILITY IN CLOUD FORECASTS...AND EVEN
PRECIPITATION CHANCES...AND THE BEST PERFORMING AFTERNOON TEMP
GUIDANCE IS STILL BULLISH ON HIGHER VALUES...THE EXCESSIVE HEAT
WATCH WILL CONTINUE FOR THIS TIME PERIOD. HOWEVER...THE WATCH COULD
BE UPGRADED TO A WARNING IF LESS CLOUD COVER ARRIVES TO MITIGATE THE
WARMTH. SOUTHEAST CA AND SOUTHWEST AZ WILL BE IN FULL SUNSHINE FOR
MUCH HIGHER AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES.

FRIDAY THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.
A MUCH STRONGER EAST TO SOUTHEAST MID/UPPER LEVEL WIND FIELD IS
FORECAST TO DEVELOP...REPLETE WITH HARD TO TIME PERTURBATIONS OR
INVERTED TROFS FLOWING MAINLY ACROSS SOUTHERN AZ. THIS COULD PORTEND
AND UPSWING IN TYPICAL MONSOON DIURNAL CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY. PRECIP
PROBABILITIES WERE ADDED TO PORTIONS OF SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH CENTRAL
AZ.

&&

.CLIMATE...

RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURE FOR THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK.

CITY        JULY 22       JULY 23      JULY 24
----        -------       -------      -------
PHOENIX   116 IN 2006   114 IN 2006  114 IN 2006
YUMA      116 IN 2006   115 IN 1959  117 IN 1943

&&

.AVIATION...
SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA INCLUDING KPHX...KIWA...AND KSDL...
HIGH CLOUDS ANTICIPATED TO INCREASE AFTER 09Z BECOMING THICK AFTER
12Z DUE TO REMNANT CLOUDINESS FROM FORMER THUNDERSTORMS. EXPECT
CEILINGS TO REMAIN ABOVE 12 KFT MSL THOUGH THERE MAY BE SOME VIRGA.
ANTICIPATE THINNING TUESDAY AFTERNOON. OTHERWISE WINDS WILL BE LIGHT
THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING WITH WEST WINDS DEVELOPING IN THE AFTERNOON.

SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA AND SOUTHWEST ARIZONA INCLUDING KIPL AND KBLH...
SKIES WILL REMAIN CLEAR...EXCEPT FOR FEW-SCT CIRRUS...THROUGH
TUESDAY AFTERNOON. ANTICIPATE FAMILIAR DIURNAL WIND PATTERNS THE
REST OF TONIGHT AND DURING THE DAY TUESDAY WITH LIGHT WEST AND
SOUTHWEST WINDS BECOMING SOUTHEAST AND EAST DURING THE DAY.

AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDED TAFS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY...
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE END OF THIS WEEK
AND INTO NEXT WEEK AS STRONG HIGH PRESSURE SITS OVER THE REGION.
SOME MEASURE OF MONSOON MOISTURE WILL ENTER THE PICTURE DURING THIS
PERIOD...THOUGH THE MAGNITUDE OF INCREASE AND DURATION IS STILL
UNCERTAIN. REGARDLESS...AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORM CHANCES
WILL PERIODICALLY INCREASE WITH MORE BENEFICIAL RAINFALL IN GILA
COUNTY...AND LARGER THREATS FOR GUSTY WINDS WESTWARD INTO LOWER
ELEVATION DESERTS. MINIMUM HUMIDITIES WILL GENERALLY FALL INTO A
15-20 PERCENT RANGE WITH GOOD OVERNIGHT RECOVERY. OUTSIDE OF
STRONGER WIND GUSTS PRODUCED BY THUNDERSTORM...WINDS WILL BE
GENERALLY LIGHT AND FAVOR TYPICAL DIURNAL PATTERNS.

&&




 &&

.PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

AZ...EXCESSIVE HEAT WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY
EVENING AZZ020>023-025>028.

CA...EXCESSIVE HEAT WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY
EVENING CAZ031>033.

&&

$$

VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/PHOENIX

DISCUSSION...MEYERS/VASQUEZ
CLIMATE...MO
AVIATION....AJ
FIRE WEATHER...MO






000
FXUS65 KPSR 221049
AFDPSR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PHOENIX AZ
345 AM MST TUE JUL 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A STRONG HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP OVER THE REGION
THIS WEEK...RESULTING IN VERY HOT TEMPERATURES BY WEDNESDAY. AT THE
SAME TIME...MONSOON MOISTURE WILL SLOWLY INCREASE OVER THE AREA...
WITH OCCASIONAL CLOUDINESS AT TIMES. INCREASED MOISTURE LEVELS...
COMBINED WITH SEVERAL WEAK WEATHER DISTURBANCES FROM MEXICO...ARE
FORECAST TO INCREASE THE CHANCE OF AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS...MAINLY ACROSS ARIZONA.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
THE FOCUS OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS THROUGH THURSDAY IS ON JUST HOW HOT
IS IS GOING TO GET. A BROAD UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONE IS CURRENTLY
PARKED OVER NEW MEXICO AND COLORADO...COMPLETE WITH A 596-600DM
HIGH CENTER. WITH THE INCREASE IN 500MB HEIGHTS...THIS WILL
DEFINITELY KEEP THE TEMPS OVER THE DESERT SOUTHWEST VERY HOT.

CURRENT IR/WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A LIMITED SWATH OF
DEBRIS CLOUDS FROM EARLIER CONVECTION OVER SONORA AND CHIHUAHUA
MEXICO THAT IS BEGINNING TO STREAM NORTHWARD IN THE ANTICYCLONIC
FLOW ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF OUR CWA. PREVIOUS MODEL RUNS HAD
THIS MID-HIGH LEVEL CLOUD COVER CONSIDERABLY MORE OPAQUE AND THE
AMOUNT/EXTENT OF COVERAGE FURTHER WEST COVERING MOST OF SOUTH
CENTRAL ARIZONA BY THIS TIME.

HOWEVER...WITH THE CLOUD COVER LACKING...THE EXPECTED DAYTIME
REDUCTION IN DAYTIME IS NOW IN QUESTION. THERE IS NO DOUBT THAT
SOUTHEAST CA AND SOUTHWEST AZ WILL HAVE FULL SUNSHINE TODAY FOR A
SUBSTANTIAL WARM-UP...AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES RANGING 109-113 DEGREES
FOR THE LOWER DESERTS NEAR IMPERIAL/BLYTHE/YUMA. DEPENDING ON THE
AMOUNT OF HIGH CLOUDS THAT MATERIALIZE LATER TODAY ACROSS
SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA...THERE COULD BE SUFFICIENT INSOLATION TO BUMP
FORECAST MAX TEMPS UP A COUPLE DEGREES. RIGHT NOW...109 IS FORECAST
FOR PHOENIX...BUT IT MIGHT ENDING UP TO BE A BIT WARMER AT MANY
LOCATIONS. HOW HOT IT GETS TODAY WILL DICTATE E

THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW IS ALSO PROGGED TO BECOME MORE EASTERLY TO
SOUTHEASTERLY WITH TIME...ALONG WITH A GRADUAL MOISTURE INCREASE.
THE 03Z KPSR RAOB FROM YESTERDAY EVENING REVEALED A SWITCH FROM
SOUTHWEST TO EAST HAS ALREADY TAKEN PLACE IN THE MID-LEVEL FLOW.
EVEN THOUGH THE SOUNDING SHOWED LITTLE CHANGE IN PRECIPITABLE WATER
AT 0.85 INCHES...MODEL FORECAST SOUNDINGS STILL SUGGEST THAT
ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE WILL STEADILY INCREASE TO AROUND 1.30 INCHES
OVER THE SOUTHWEST DESERTS BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. SOME LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE IS STARTING TO SNEAK BACK INTO THE AREA...AS SURFACE DEW
POINT TEMPERATURES ARE NOW 7-10 DEGREES HIGHER THAN THIS TIME
YESTERDAY MORNING ACROSS SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA. YET..GIVEN THE SLOW
INCREASE IN MOISTURE...NOT EXPECTING MUCH TO CHANGE IN PRECIPITATION
CHANCES FOR LATER TODAY. STILL LOOKING AT THE BEST CHANCES OF
AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER EASTERN
ARIZONA...WITH ONLY ISOLATED STORMS WELL EAST OF PHOENIX OVER THE
HIGHER TERRAIN OF SOUTHERN GILA COUNTY.

WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...
AGAIN...THE BEST PERFORMING TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE CONTINUES THE
AFTERNOON WARM-UP INTO NEAR RECORD BREAKING TERRITORY WEDNESDAY
AND THURSDAY. THIS DESPITE MODEL GUIDANCE OF MORE CONVECTIVE DEBRIS
CLOUDS AND SLIGHTLY HIGHER HUMIDITIES. IN FACT...THE UPPER LEVEL
WIND FIELD ALONG WESTERN EDGE OF THE 300/250 MB ANTICYCLONES...OVER
CENTRAL AZ...INDICATE A LITTLE SPEED DIVERGENCE OR ACCELERATING
WIND FROM SOUTH TO NORTH THAT COULD SUPPORT A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS OR
SPRINKLES IN SOUTH CENTRAL AZ WED MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON.

SINCE THERE IS A LOT OF VARIABILITY IN CLOUD FORECASTS...AND EVEN
PRECIPITATION CHANCES...AND THE BEST PERFORMING AFTERNOON TEMP
GUIDANCE IS STILL BULLISH ON HIGHER VALUES...THE EXCESSIVE HEAT
WATCH WILL CONTINUE FOR THIS TIME PERIOD. HOWEVER...THE WATCH COULD
BE UPGRADED TO A WARNING IF LESS CLOUD COVER ARRIVES TO MITIGATE THE
WARMTH. SOUTHEAST CA AND SOUTHWEST AZ WILL BE IN FULL SUNSHINE FOR
MUCH HIGHER AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES.

FRIDAY THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.
A MUCH STRONGER EAST TO SOUTHEAST MID/UPPER LEVEL WIND FIELD IS
FORECAST TO DEVELOP...REPLETE WITH HARD TO TIME PERTURBATIONS OR
INVERTED TROFS FLOWING MAINLY ACROSS SOUTHERN AZ. THIS COULD PORTEND
AND UPSWING IN TYPICAL MONSOON DIURNAL CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY. PRECIP
PROBABILITIES WERE ADDED TO PORTIONS OF SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH CENTRAL
AZ.

&&

.CLIMATE...

RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURE FOR THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK.

CITY        JULY 22       JULY 23      JULY 24
----        -------       -------      -------
PHOENIX   116 IN 2006   114 IN 2006  114 IN 2006
YUMA      116 IN 2006   115 IN 1959  117 IN 1943

&&

.AVIATION...
SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA INCLUDING KPHX...KIWA...AND KSDL...
HIGH CLOUDS ANTICIPATED TO INCREASE AFTER 09Z BECOMING THICK AFTER
12Z DUE TO REMNANT CLOUDINESS FROM FORMER THUNDERSTORMS. EXPECT
CEILINGS TO REMAIN ABOVE 12 KFT MSL THOUGH THERE MAY BE SOME VIRGA.
ANTICIPATE THINNING TUESDAY AFTERNOON. OTHERWISE WINDS WILL BE LIGHT
THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING WITH WEST WINDS DEVELOPING IN THE AFTERNOON.

SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA AND SOUTHWEST ARIZONA INCLUDING KIPL AND KBLH...
SKIES WILL REMAIN CLEAR...EXCEPT FOR FEW-SCT CIRRUS...THROUGH
TUESDAY AFTERNOON. ANTICIPATE FAMILIAR DIURNAL WIND PATTERNS THE
REST OF TONIGHT AND DURING THE DAY TUESDAY WITH LIGHT WEST AND
SOUTHWEST WINDS BECOMING SOUTHEAST AND EAST DURING THE DAY.

AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDED TAFS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY...
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE END OF THIS WEEK
AND INTO NEXT WEEK AS STRONG HIGH PRESSURE SITS OVER THE REGION.
SOME MEASURE OF MONSOON MOISTURE WILL ENTER THE PICTURE DURING THIS
PERIOD...THOUGH THE MAGNITUDE OF INCREASE AND DURATION IS STILL
UNCERTAIN. REGARDLESS...AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORM CHANCES
WILL PERIODICALLY INCREASE WITH MORE BENEFICIAL RAINFALL IN GILA
COUNTY...AND LARGER THREATS FOR GUSTY WINDS WESTWARD INTO LOWER
ELEVATION DESERTS. MINIMUM HUMIDITIES WILL GENERALLY FALL INTO A
15-20 PERCENT RANGE WITH GOOD OVERNIGHT RECOVERY. OUTSIDE OF
STRONGER WIND GUSTS PRODUCED BY THUNDERSTORM...WINDS WILL BE
GENERALLY LIGHT AND FAVOR TYPICAL DIURNAL PATTERNS.

&&




 &&

.PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

AZ...EXCESSIVE HEAT WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY
EVENING AZZ020>023-025>028.

CA...EXCESSIVE HEAT WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY
EVENING CAZ031>033.

&&

$$

VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/PHOENIX

DISCUSSION...MEYERS/VASQUEZ
CLIMATE...MO
AVIATION....AJ
FIRE WEATHER...MO






000
FXUS65 KPSR 221049
AFDPSR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PHOENIX AZ
345 AM MST TUE JUL 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A STRONG HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP OVER THE REGION
THIS WEEK...RESULTING IN VERY HOT TEMPERATURES BY WEDNESDAY. AT THE
SAME TIME...MONSOON MOISTURE WILL SLOWLY INCREASE OVER THE AREA...
WITH OCCASIONAL CLOUDINESS AT TIMES. INCREASED MOISTURE LEVELS...
COMBINED WITH SEVERAL WEAK WEATHER DISTURBANCES FROM MEXICO...ARE
FORECAST TO INCREASE THE CHANCE OF AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS...MAINLY ACROSS ARIZONA.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
THE FOCUS OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS THROUGH THURSDAY IS ON JUST HOW HOT
IS IS GOING TO GET. A BROAD UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONE IS CURRENTLY
PARKED OVER NEW MEXICO AND COLORADO...COMPLETE WITH A 596-600DM
HIGH CENTER. WITH THE INCREASE IN 500MB HEIGHTS...THIS WILL
DEFINITELY KEEP THE TEMPS OVER THE DESERT SOUTHWEST VERY HOT.

CURRENT IR/WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A LIMITED SWATH OF
DEBRIS CLOUDS FROM EARLIER CONVECTION OVER SONORA AND CHIHUAHUA
MEXICO THAT IS BEGINNING TO STREAM NORTHWARD IN THE ANTICYCLONIC
FLOW ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF OUR CWA. PREVIOUS MODEL RUNS HAD
THIS MID-HIGH LEVEL CLOUD COVER CONSIDERABLY MORE OPAQUE AND THE
AMOUNT/EXTENT OF COVERAGE FURTHER WEST COVERING MOST OF SOUTH
CENTRAL ARIZONA BY THIS TIME.

HOWEVER...WITH THE CLOUD COVER LACKING...THE EXPECTED DAYTIME
REDUCTION IN DAYTIME IS NOW IN QUESTION. THERE IS NO DOUBT THAT
SOUTHEAST CA AND SOUTHWEST AZ WILL HAVE FULL SUNSHINE TODAY FOR A
SUBSTANTIAL WARM-UP...AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES RANGING 109-113 DEGREES
FOR THE LOWER DESERTS NEAR IMPERIAL/BLYTHE/YUMA. DEPENDING ON THE
AMOUNT OF HIGH CLOUDS THAT MATERIALIZE LATER TODAY ACROSS
SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA...THERE COULD BE SUFFICIENT INSOLATION TO BUMP
FORECAST MAX TEMPS UP A COUPLE DEGREES. RIGHT NOW...109 IS FORECAST
FOR PHOENIX...BUT IT MIGHT ENDING UP TO BE A BIT WARMER AT MANY
LOCATIONS. HOW HOT IT GETS TODAY WILL DICTATE E

THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW IS ALSO PROGGED TO BECOME MORE EASTERLY TO
SOUTHEASTERLY WITH TIME...ALONG WITH A GRADUAL MOISTURE INCREASE.
THE 03Z KPSR RAOB FROM YESTERDAY EVENING REVEALED A SWITCH FROM
SOUTHWEST TO EAST HAS ALREADY TAKEN PLACE IN THE MID-LEVEL FLOW.
EVEN THOUGH THE SOUNDING SHOWED LITTLE CHANGE IN PRECIPITABLE WATER
AT 0.85 INCHES...MODEL FORECAST SOUNDINGS STILL SUGGEST THAT
ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE WILL STEADILY INCREASE TO AROUND 1.30 INCHES
OVER THE SOUTHWEST DESERTS BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. SOME LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE IS STARTING TO SNEAK BACK INTO THE AREA...AS SURFACE DEW
POINT TEMPERATURES ARE NOW 7-10 DEGREES HIGHER THAN THIS TIME
YESTERDAY MORNING ACROSS SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA. YET..GIVEN THE SLOW
INCREASE IN MOISTURE...NOT EXPECTING MUCH TO CHANGE IN PRECIPITATION
CHANCES FOR LATER TODAY. STILL LOOKING AT THE BEST CHANCES OF
AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER EASTERN
ARIZONA...WITH ONLY ISOLATED STORMS WELL EAST OF PHOENIX OVER THE
HIGHER TERRAIN OF SOUTHERN GILA COUNTY.

WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...
AGAIN...THE BEST PERFORMING TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE CONTINUES THE
AFTERNOON WARM-UP INTO NEAR RECORD BREAKING TERRITORY WEDNESDAY
AND THURSDAY. THIS DESPITE MODEL GUIDANCE OF MORE CONVECTIVE DEBRIS
CLOUDS AND SLIGHTLY HIGHER HUMIDITIES. IN FACT...THE UPPER LEVEL
WIND FIELD ALONG WESTERN EDGE OF THE 300/250 MB ANTICYCLONES...OVER
CENTRAL AZ...INDICATE A LITTLE SPEED DIVERGENCE OR ACCELERATING
WIND FROM SOUTH TO NORTH THAT COULD SUPPORT A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS OR
SPRINKLES IN SOUTH CENTRAL AZ WED MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON.

SINCE THERE IS A LOT OF VARIABILITY IN CLOUD FORECASTS...AND EVEN
PRECIPITATION CHANCES...AND THE BEST PERFORMING AFTERNOON TEMP
GUIDANCE IS STILL BULLISH ON HIGHER VALUES...THE EXCESSIVE HEAT
WATCH WILL CONTINUE FOR THIS TIME PERIOD. HOWEVER...THE WATCH COULD
BE UPGRADED TO A WARNING IF LESS CLOUD COVER ARRIVES TO MITIGATE THE
WARMTH. SOUTHEAST CA AND SOUTHWEST AZ WILL BE IN FULL SUNSHINE FOR
MUCH HIGHER AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES.

FRIDAY THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.
A MUCH STRONGER EAST TO SOUTHEAST MID/UPPER LEVEL WIND FIELD IS
FORECAST TO DEVELOP...REPLETE WITH HARD TO TIME PERTURBATIONS OR
INVERTED TROFS FLOWING MAINLY ACROSS SOUTHERN AZ. THIS COULD PORTEND
AND UPSWING IN TYPICAL MONSOON DIURNAL CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY. PRECIP
PROBABILITIES WERE ADDED TO PORTIONS OF SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH CENTRAL
AZ.

&&

.CLIMATE...

RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURE FOR THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK.

CITY        JULY 22       JULY 23      JULY 24
----        -------       -------      -------
PHOENIX   116 IN 2006   114 IN 2006  114 IN 2006
YUMA      116 IN 2006   115 IN 1959  117 IN 1943

&&

.AVIATION...
SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA INCLUDING KPHX...KIWA...AND KSDL...
HIGH CLOUDS ANTICIPATED TO INCREASE AFTER 09Z BECOMING THICK AFTER
12Z DUE TO REMNANT CLOUDINESS FROM FORMER THUNDERSTORMS. EXPECT
CEILINGS TO REMAIN ABOVE 12 KFT MSL THOUGH THERE MAY BE SOME VIRGA.
ANTICIPATE THINNING TUESDAY AFTERNOON. OTHERWISE WINDS WILL BE LIGHT
THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING WITH WEST WINDS DEVELOPING IN THE AFTERNOON.

SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA AND SOUTHWEST ARIZONA INCLUDING KIPL AND KBLH...
SKIES WILL REMAIN CLEAR...EXCEPT FOR FEW-SCT CIRRUS...THROUGH
TUESDAY AFTERNOON. ANTICIPATE FAMILIAR DIURNAL WIND PATTERNS THE
REST OF TONIGHT AND DURING THE DAY TUESDAY WITH LIGHT WEST AND
SOUTHWEST WINDS BECOMING SOUTHEAST AND EAST DURING THE DAY.

AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDED TAFS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY...
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE END OF THIS WEEK
AND INTO NEXT WEEK AS STRONG HIGH PRESSURE SITS OVER THE REGION.
SOME MEASURE OF MONSOON MOISTURE WILL ENTER THE PICTURE DURING THIS
PERIOD...THOUGH THE MAGNITUDE OF INCREASE AND DURATION IS STILL
UNCERTAIN. REGARDLESS...AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORM CHANCES
WILL PERIODICALLY INCREASE WITH MORE BENEFICIAL RAINFALL IN GILA
COUNTY...AND LARGER THREATS FOR GUSTY WINDS WESTWARD INTO LOWER
ELEVATION DESERTS. MINIMUM HUMIDITIES WILL GENERALLY FALL INTO A
15-20 PERCENT RANGE WITH GOOD OVERNIGHT RECOVERY. OUTSIDE OF
STRONGER WIND GUSTS PRODUCED BY THUNDERSTORM...WINDS WILL BE
GENERALLY LIGHT AND FAVOR TYPICAL DIURNAL PATTERNS.

&&




 &&

.PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

AZ...EXCESSIVE HEAT WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY
EVENING AZZ020>023-025>028.

CA...EXCESSIVE HEAT WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY
EVENING CAZ031>033.

&&

$$

VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/PHOENIX

DISCUSSION...MEYERS/VASQUEZ
CLIMATE...MO
AVIATION....AJ
FIRE WEATHER...MO






000
FXUS65 KFGZ 221016
AFDFGZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ
315 AM MST TUE JUL 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
BEGINNING TUESDAY...SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IS FORECAST TO
GRADUALLY INCREASE AS SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE MOVES INTO THE REGION.
EXPECT THE WARMEST TEMPERATURES TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY WITH DAYTIME
HIGH TEMPERATURES RUNNING SEVERAL DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL...THEN
DROPPING BACK TO NORMAL BY THE WEEKEND.
&&

.DISCUSSION...SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE WILL BEGIN TO RETURN TO NORTHERN
ARIZONA AS THE TROUGH ALONG THE WEST COAST WEAKENS AND MOVES EAST BY
THURSDAY. THE UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL SIT OVER WESTERN
NEW MEXICO AND THE FOUR CORNERS REGION...AND DUE TO THE SOUTHERLY
CIRCULATION AROUND THE UPPER LEVEL HIGH...THIS CIRCULATION WILL TEND
TO DRAW DEEPER MOISTURE OVER NORTHERN MEXICO NORTHWARD INTO NORTHERN
ARIZONA. CURRENTLY 1.0"+ PW AIR HAS MOVED NORTHWARD INTO SOUTHERN
SECTIONS OF THE STATE...WITH 1.5"+ PW AIR OVER NORTHERN MEXICO. THIS
IS THE AIRMASS THAT IS FORECAST TO BE PULLED NORTHWARD AROUND THE
UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE.  EXPECT INCREASING CHANCES OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FIRST OVER THE WHITE MOUNTAINS AND EASTERN
MOGOLLON RIM TODAY...THEN AS FAR NORTH AS FLAGSTAFF WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY...THEN TO THE GRAND CANYON COUNTRY BY THE WEEKEND. SOME OF
THE THUNDERSTORMS THAT INITIALLY FORM WILL BE HIGH BASED WITH THE
POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE STRONG THUNDERSTORM OUTFLOW WINDS...THEN
GRADUALLY REPLACED BY WETTER STORMS BY THE WEEKEND.

THE BEST SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE IS FORECAST FROM THE
COCONINO PLATEAU...MOGOLLON RIM...AND WHITE MOUNTAINS SOUTHWARD
THROUGH THIS FORECAST PERIOD.
&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 12Z  PACKAGE...PRIMARILY VFR CONDITIONS FOR THE
NEXT 24 HOURS. AREAS FU WITH MVFR VSBYS POSSIBLE VCNTY
KSEZ...KFLG...KGCN. LOOK FOR WIDELY SCATTERED -SHRA/TSRA BTWN 18Z
TUE -03Z WEDS. WIND GUSTS TO 40 KT POSSIBLE NEAR STRONGER CONVECTIVE
CELLS. AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDMENTS.
&&

.FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC.........TC
AVIATION.......DL

FOR NORTHERN ARIZONA WEATHER INFORMATION VISIT
WEATHER.GOV/FLAGSTAFF









000
FXUS65 KFGZ 221016
AFDFGZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ
315 AM MST TUE JUL 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
BEGINNING TUESDAY...SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IS FORECAST TO
GRADUALLY INCREASE AS SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE MOVES INTO THE REGION.
EXPECT THE WARMEST TEMPERATURES TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY WITH DAYTIME
HIGH TEMPERATURES RUNNING SEVERAL DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL...THEN
DROPPING BACK TO NORMAL BY THE WEEKEND.
&&

.DISCUSSION...SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE WILL BEGIN TO RETURN TO NORTHERN
ARIZONA AS THE TROUGH ALONG THE WEST COAST WEAKENS AND MOVES EAST BY
THURSDAY. THE UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL SIT OVER WESTERN
NEW MEXICO AND THE FOUR CORNERS REGION...AND DUE TO THE SOUTHERLY
CIRCULATION AROUND THE UPPER LEVEL HIGH...THIS CIRCULATION WILL TEND
TO DRAW DEEPER MOISTURE OVER NORTHERN MEXICO NORTHWARD INTO NORTHERN
ARIZONA. CURRENTLY 1.0"+ PW AIR HAS MOVED NORTHWARD INTO SOUTHERN
SECTIONS OF THE STATE...WITH 1.5"+ PW AIR OVER NORTHERN MEXICO. THIS
IS THE AIRMASS THAT IS FORECAST TO BE PULLED NORTHWARD AROUND THE
UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE.  EXPECT INCREASING CHANCES OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FIRST OVER THE WHITE MOUNTAINS AND EASTERN
MOGOLLON RIM TODAY...THEN AS FAR NORTH AS FLAGSTAFF WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY...THEN TO THE GRAND CANYON COUNTRY BY THE WEEKEND. SOME OF
THE THUNDERSTORMS THAT INITIALLY FORM WILL BE HIGH BASED WITH THE
POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE STRONG THUNDERSTORM OUTFLOW WINDS...THEN
GRADUALLY REPLACED BY WETTER STORMS BY THE WEEKEND.

THE BEST SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE IS FORECAST FROM THE
COCONINO PLATEAU...MOGOLLON RIM...AND WHITE MOUNTAINS SOUTHWARD
THROUGH THIS FORECAST PERIOD.
&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 12Z  PACKAGE...PRIMARILY VFR CONDITIONS FOR THE
NEXT 24 HOURS. AREAS FU WITH MVFR VSBYS POSSIBLE VCNTY
KSEZ...KFLG...KGCN. LOOK FOR WIDELY SCATTERED -SHRA/TSRA BTWN 18Z
TUE -03Z WEDS. WIND GUSTS TO 40 KT POSSIBLE NEAR STRONGER CONVECTIVE
CELLS. AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDMENTS.
&&

.FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC.........TC
AVIATION.......DL

FOR NORTHERN ARIZONA WEATHER INFORMATION VISIT
WEATHER.GOV/FLAGSTAFF










000
FXUS65 KTWC 220953
AFDTWC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ
250 AM MST TUE JUL 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...EXPECT ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS MOSTLY EAST
AND SOUTH OF TUCSON THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THIS WEEK. MUCH HOTTER
TEMPERATURES WILL OCCUR TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...WITH NEAR RECORD
HIGHS POSSIBLE. AN INCREASE IN THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY SHOULD OCCUR
LATE IN THE WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND.

&&

.DISCUSSION...MODELS CONTINUED TO SUGGEST A SLIGHT INCREASE IN
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES TODAY AS THE UPPER HIGH SHIFTS TO A POSITION
CENTERED NEAR THE FOUR CORNERS. PWAT VALUES WERE ON THE INCREASE
WITH DEEPER MOISTURE POOLED SOUTH OF THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER
STARTING TO ADVECT NORTHWARD EARLY THIS MORNING. AFTERNOON
TEMPERATURES WILL ALSO BE ON THE INCREASE TODAY AND WEDNESDAY AS
THICKNESS VALUES JUMP UP IN RESPONSE TO THE UPPER HIGH BUILDING
NORTHWARD. A COMBINATION OF INCREASING MOISTURE AND WARMER AFTERNOON
TEMPERATURES SHOULD TRANSLATE TO BETTER THUNDERSTORM CHANCES
WEDNESDAY AREAWIDE. ON THURSDAY...MODELS SHOWED THE DEEPER MOISTURE
SPREADING WESTWARD TO THE COLORADO RIVER VALLEY WITH DRIER AIR
ENTERING EASTERN SECTIONS. BY THIS WEEKEND...MODELS TRACK AN UPPER
LEVEL DISTURBANCE THROUGH MEXICO WHICH WILL LIKELY BRING A
NOTICEABLE UPSWING IN THUNDERSTORMS ACTIVITY. THEREAFTER...A
DOWNWARD TREND IN THUNDERSTORMS WILL COMMENCE. HIGH TEMPERATURES
WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD...BUT THE
WARMEST DAYS WILL OCCUR WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...WHEN READINGS
WILL BE 8 TO 12 DEGS ABOVE NORMAL. OTHERWISE...EXPECT HIGHS TO BE 3
TO 6 DEGS ABOVE NORMAL. LOWS GENERALLY 4 TO 6 DEGS ABOVE NORMAL EACH
DAY...BUT THE WARMEST MORNINGS SHOULD OCCUR WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...VALID THRU 23/12Z.
ISOLATED -TSRA/-SHRA WILL OCCUR MOSTLY EAST AND SOUTH OF KTUS THIS
AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING. BRIEF WIND GUSTS TO NEAR 35 KTS
MAY OCCUR WITH THIS ACTIVITY. OTHERWISE...EXPECT MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES
WEST OF KTUS AND A FEW TO BROKEN CLOUDS MAINLY ABOVE 10K FT AGL EAST
TO SOUTH OF KTUS INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING. AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT
UPDATED FOR TAF AMENDMENTS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...ISOLATED SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IS
EXPECTED STARTING TODAY...ESPECIALLY SOUTH AND EAST OF TUCSON. THE
BEST CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL SHIFT A BIT WESTWARD
ON WEDNESDAY TO INCLUDE THE TUCSON AREA. THERE WILL PERHAPS BE A
BRIEF DOWNTURN IN STORM COVERAGE THURSDAY BEFORE A MORE TYPICAL
MONSOON PATTERN MOVES IN LATE THIS WEEK AND THIS WEEKEND WITH
SCATTERED MAINLY AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
WILL PREVAIL BY THIS WEEKEND. EXPECT STRONG...GUSTY AND ERRATIC
WINDS WITH THE STRONGER THUNDERSTORMS. HOTTER TEMPERATURES WILL ALSO
OCCUR TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY FOLLOWED BY A COOLING TREND BY THE
WEEKEND.

&&

.TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...YOUTUBE...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/TUCSON






000
FXUS65 KTWC 220953
AFDTWC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ
250 AM MST TUE JUL 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...EXPECT ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS MOSTLY EAST
AND SOUTH OF TUCSON THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THIS WEEK. MUCH HOTTER
TEMPERATURES WILL OCCUR TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...WITH NEAR RECORD
HIGHS POSSIBLE. AN INCREASE IN THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY SHOULD OCCUR
LATE IN THE WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND.

&&

.DISCUSSION...MODELS CONTINUED TO SUGGEST A SLIGHT INCREASE IN
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES TODAY AS THE UPPER HIGH SHIFTS TO A POSITION
CENTERED NEAR THE FOUR CORNERS. PWAT VALUES WERE ON THE INCREASE
WITH DEEPER MOISTURE POOLED SOUTH OF THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER
STARTING TO ADVECT NORTHWARD EARLY THIS MORNING. AFTERNOON
TEMPERATURES WILL ALSO BE ON THE INCREASE TODAY AND WEDNESDAY AS
THICKNESS VALUES JUMP UP IN RESPONSE TO THE UPPER HIGH BUILDING
NORTHWARD. A COMBINATION OF INCREASING MOISTURE AND WARMER AFTERNOON
TEMPERATURES SHOULD TRANSLATE TO BETTER THUNDERSTORM CHANCES
WEDNESDAY AREAWIDE. ON THURSDAY...MODELS SHOWED THE DEEPER MOISTURE
SPREADING WESTWARD TO THE COLORADO RIVER VALLEY WITH DRIER AIR
ENTERING EASTERN SECTIONS. BY THIS WEEKEND...MODELS TRACK AN UPPER
LEVEL DISTURBANCE THROUGH MEXICO WHICH WILL LIKELY BRING A
NOTICEABLE UPSWING IN THUNDERSTORMS ACTIVITY. THEREAFTER...A
DOWNWARD TREND IN THUNDERSTORMS WILL COMMENCE. HIGH TEMPERATURES
WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD...BUT THE
WARMEST DAYS WILL OCCUR WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...WHEN READINGS
WILL BE 8 TO 12 DEGS ABOVE NORMAL. OTHERWISE...EXPECT HIGHS TO BE 3
TO 6 DEGS ABOVE NORMAL. LOWS GENERALLY 4 TO 6 DEGS ABOVE NORMAL EACH
DAY...BUT THE WARMEST MORNINGS SHOULD OCCUR WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...VALID THRU 23/12Z.
ISOLATED -TSRA/-SHRA WILL OCCUR MOSTLY EAST AND SOUTH OF KTUS THIS
AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING. BRIEF WIND GUSTS TO NEAR 35 KTS
MAY OCCUR WITH THIS ACTIVITY. OTHERWISE...EXPECT MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES
WEST OF KTUS AND A FEW TO BROKEN CLOUDS MAINLY ABOVE 10K FT AGL EAST
TO SOUTH OF KTUS INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING. AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT
UPDATED FOR TAF AMENDMENTS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...ISOLATED SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IS
EXPECTED STARTING TODAY...ESPECIALLY SOUTH AND EAST OF TUCSON. THE
BEST CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL SHIFT A BIT WESTWARD
ON WEDNESDAY TO INCLUDE THE TUCSON AREA. THERE WILL PERHAPS BE A
BRIEF DOWNTURN IN STORM COVERAGE THURSDAY BEFORE A MORE TYPICAL
MONSOON PATTERN MOVES IN LATE THIS WEEK AND THIS WEEKEND WITH
SCATTERED MAINLY AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
WILL PREVAIL BY THIS WEEKEND. EXPECT STRONG...GUSTY AND ERRATIC
WINDS WITH THE STRONGER THUNDERSTORMS. HOTTER TEMPERATURES WILL ALSO
OCCUR TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY FOLLOWED BY A COOLING TREND BY THE
WEEKEND.

&&

.TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...YOUTUBE...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/TUCSON







000
FXUS65 KPSR 220513
AFDPSR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PHOENIX AZ
1010 PM MST MON JUL 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A STRONG HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP OVER THE REGION
THIS WEEK...RESULTING IN VERY HOT TEMPERATURES BY WEDNESDAY. AT THE
SAME TIME...MONSOON MOISTURE WILL SLOWLY INCREASE OVER THE AREA...
WITH OCCASIONAL CLOUDINESS AT TIMES. INCREASED MOISTURE LEVELS...
COMBINED WITH SEVERAL WEAK WEATHER DISTURBANCES FROM MEXICO...ARE
FORECAST TO INCREASE THE CHANCE OF AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS...MAINLY ACROSS ARIZONA.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
00Z SOUNDINGS AROUND ARIZONA SHOW STABLE CONDITIONS AND THIS WAS
BORNE OUT BY VERY MEAGER ACTIVITY LIMITED TO ONLY FAR EASTERN
PORTIONS OF THE STATE. DEEP MOISTURE IS NOT ALL THAT FAR AWAY...OVER
SONORA AND CHIHUAHUA WHERE CONVECTION HAS BEEN. AS OF THIS WRITING
THERE HAS NOT BEEN A LARGE MCS IN THAT AREA TO PRODUCE AN IMPRESSIVE
AMOUNT OF DEBRIS CLOUDS. GFS AND NAM ARE A BIT LESS OPTIMISTIC ON
THE AMOUNT OF CLOUDINESS TUESDAY OVER EASTERN PORTIONS OF OUR AREA.
HOWEVER...WITH A TURN TOWARD MORE OF AN EASTERLY COMPONENT...THE
DEBRIS CLOUDINESS THAT IS AVAILABLE  WILL HAVE AN OPPORTUNITY TO
MOVE INTO THE AREA...INCLUDING FROM THE AZ/NM BORDER AREA. THUS
MODELS HAVENT DUMPED THE IDEA OF HAVING AT LEAST SOME CLOUD COVER
AROUND. TUESDAY MAX TEMPS SHOW AN UPWARD TREND DUE TO STRENGTHENING
HIGH PRESSURE BUT ALSO ACKNOWLEDGE SOME MEASURE OF CLOUDINESS
REDUCING THE INSOLATION. JUST HOW MUCH OF A REDUCTION THERE WILL BE
REMAINS TO BE SEEN. MADE ONLY MINOR TWEAKS TO MAX TEMPS FOR TUESDAY.
IN GENERAL...00Z MODELS ARE INDICATING A WESTWARD PROGRESSION OF QPF
OVER THE NEXT COUPLE DAYS. BUT FOR THURSDAY...BOTH GFS AND NAM SHOW
A DOWNTREND OVER SOUTHEAST ARIZONA DUE TO SOME DRY ADVECTION...MORE
NOTICEABLY THE GFS. EXCESSIVE HEAT WATCH CONTINUES FOR WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY. BIG X FACTOR THAT WILL AFFECT THE TEMPS WILL BE HOW MUCH
OR HOW LITTLE CLOUDINESS AND OUTFLOW AIR WE GET.

&&

.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION ISSUED 250 PM...
TONIGHT AND TUESDAY...
A BROAD MID/UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONE CENTERED OVER NEW MEXICO THE
NEXT SEVERAL DAYS SHOULD BEGIN TO BACK MID LEVEL WINDS FROM THE
SOUTHEAST DIRECTION WITH ADDITIONAL MOISTURE INCREASE. PROBLEM FOR
TOMORROW...AFTERNOON TEMPERATURE WISE IS...CONSIDERABLE CONVECTIVE
DEBRIS CLOUDS FROM MEXICO ARE EXPECTED TO FLOW INTO THE EASTERN HALF
OF AZ LATE TONIGHT/EARLY TUESDAY. CLOUDS COULD BE THICK ENOUGH FOR A
FEW VIRGA SHOWERS OVER THE EASTERN PORTIONS OF OUR FORECAST AREA...
PHOENIX EAST...WHICH COULD REDUCE AFTERNOON HEATING SOMEWHAT.
SOUTHEAST CA AND SOUTHWEST AZ SHOULD HAVE FULL SUNSHINE TUESDAY FOR
A SUBSTANTIAL WARM-UP. THE PROBLEM IS...BEST PERFORMING GUIDANCE
SHOWS LITTLE IN THE WAY AFTERNOON TEMPERATURE REDUCTION...DESPITE
CLOUDS...SO WILL CONTINUE TO SHADE TEMPERATURES UPWARD TOWARD THE
POTENTIAL HIGH SIDE.

WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...
AGAIN...THE BEST PERFORMING TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE CONTINUES THE
AFTERNOON WARM-UP INTO NEAR RECORD BREAKING TERRITORY WEDNESDAY
AND THURSDAY. THIS DESPITE MODEL GUIDANCE OF MORE CONVECTIVE DEBRIS
CLOUDS AND SLIGHTLY HIGHER HUMIDITIES. IN FACT...THE UPPER LEVEL
WIND FIELD ALONG WESTERN EDGE OF THE 300/250 MB ANTICYCLONES...OVER
CENTRAL AZ...INDICATE A LITTLE SPEED DIVERGENCE OR ACCELERATING
WIND FROM SOUTH TO NORTH THAT COULD SUPPORT A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS OR
SPRINKLES IN SOUTH CENTRAL AZ WED MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON.

SINCE THERE IS A LOT OF VARIABILITY IN CLOUD FORECASTS...AND BEST
PERFORMING AFTN TEMP GUIDANCE IS STILL BULLISH ON HIGHER VALUES...
WE DECIDED TO CONTINUE THE EXCESSIVE HEAT WATCH FOR WED AND THU. IN
OTHER WORDS...WE WILL WAIT AND SEE HOW THE CONVECTIVE DEBRIS CLOUD
FIELD FROM MEXICO MIGHT SETS UP LATER TONIGHT AND TUESDAY. SOUTHEAST
CA AND SOUTHWEST AZ WILL BE IN FULL SUNSHINE FOR MUCH HIGHER AFTN
TEMPERATURE WED AND THU.

FRIDAY THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.
A MUCH STRONGER EAST TO SOUTHEAST MID/UPPER LEVEL WIND FIELD IS
FORECAST TO DEVELOP...REPLETE WITH HARD TO TIME PERTURBATIONS OR
INVERTED TROFS FLOWING MAINLY ACROSS SOUTHERN AZ. THIS COULD PORTEND
AND UPSWING IN TYPICAL MONSOON DIURNAL CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY. PRECIP
PROBABILITIES WERE ADDED TO PORTIONS OF SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH CENTRAL
AZ.

&&

.CLIMATE...

RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURE FOR THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK.

CITY        JULY 22       JULY 23      JULY 24
----        -------       -------      -------
PHOENIX   116 IN 2006   114 IN 2006  114 IN 2006
YUMA      116 IN 2006   115 IN 1959  117 IN 1943

&&

.AVIATION...
SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA INCLUDING KPHX...KIWA...AND KSDL...
HIGH CLOUDS ANTICIPATED TO INCREASE AFTER 09Z BECOMING THICK AFTER
12Z DUE TO REMNANT CLOUDINESS FROM FORMER THUNDERSTORMS. EXPECT
CEILINGS TO REMAIN ABOVE 12 KFT MSL THOUGH THERE MAY BE SOME VIRGA.
ANTICIPATE THINNING TUESDAY AFTERNOON. OTHERWISE WINDS WILL BE LIGHT
THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING WITH WEST WINDS DEVELOPING IN THE AFTERNOON.

SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA AND SOUTHWEST ARIZONA INCLUDING KIPL AND KBLH...
SKIES WILL REMAIN CLEAR...EXCEPT FOR FEW-SCT CIRRUS...THROUGH
TUESDAY AFTERNOON. ANTICIPATE FAMILIAR DIURNAL WIND PATTERNS THE
REST OF TONIGHT AND DURING THE DAY TUESDAY WITH LIGHT WEST AND
SOUTHWEST WINDS BECOMING SOUTHEAST AND EAST DURING THE DAY.

AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDED TAFS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY...
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE END OF THIS WEEK
AND INTO NEXT WEEK AS STRONG HIGH PRESSURE SITS OVER THE REGION.
SOME MEASURE OF MONSOON MOISTURE WILL ENTER THE PICTURE DURING THIS
PERIOD...THOUGH THE MAGNITUDE OF INCREASE AND DURATION IS STILL
UNCERTAIN. REGARDLESS...AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORM CHANCES
WILL PERIODICALLY INCREASE WITH MORE BENEFICIAL RAINFALL IN GILA
COUNTY...AND LARGER THREATS FOR GUSTY WINDS WESTWARD INTO LOWER
ELEVATION DESERTS. MINIMUM HUMIDITIES WILL GENERALLY FALL INTO A
15-20 PERCENT RANGE WITH GOOD OVERNIGHT RECOVERY. OUTSIDE OF
STRONGER WIND GUSTS PRODUCED BY THUNDERSTORM...WINDS WILL BE
GENERALLY LIGHT AND FAVOR TYPICAL DIURNAL PATTERNS.

&&




 &&

.PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

AZ...EXCESSIVE HEAT WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY
EVENING AZZ020>023-025>028.

CA...EXCESSIVE HEAT WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY
EVENING CAZ031>033.

&&

$$

VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/PHOENIX

DISCUSSION...AJ
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...VASQUEZ
CLIMATE...MO
AVIATION....AJ
FIRE WEATHER...MO






000
FXUS65 KPSR 220513
AFDPSR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PHOENIX AZ
1010 PM MST MON JUL 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A STRONG HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP OVER THE REGION
THIS WEEK...RESULTING IN VERY HOT TEMPERATURES BY WEDNESDAY. AT THE
SAME TIME...MONSOON MOISTURE WILL SLOWLY INCREASE OVER THE AREA...
WITH OCCASIONAL CLOUDINESS AT TIMES. INCREASED MOISTURE LEVELS...
COMBINED WITH SEVERAL WEAK WEATHER DISTURBANCES FROM MEXICO...ARE
FORECAST TO INCREASE THE CHANCE OF AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS...MAINLY ACROSS ARIZONA.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
00Z SOUNDINGS AROUND ARIZONA SHOW STABLE CONDITIONS AND THIS WAS
BORNE OUT BY VERY MEAGER ACTIVITY LIMITED TO ONLY FAR EASTERN
PORTIONS OF THE STATE. DEEP MOISTURE IS NOT ALL THAT FAR AWAY...OVER
SONORA AND CHIHUAHUA WHERE CONVECTION HAS BEEN. AS OF THIS WRITING
THERE HAS NOT BEEN A LARGE MCS IN THAT AREA TO PRODUCE AN IMPRESSIVE
AMOUNT OF DEBRIS CLOUDS. GFS AND NAM ARE A BIT LESS OPTIMISTIC ON
THE AMOUNT OF CLOUDINESS TUESDAY OVER EASTERN PORTIONS OF OUR AREA.
HOWEVER...WITH A TURN TOWARD MORE OF AN EASTERLY COMPONENT...THE
DEBRIS CLOUDINESS THAT IS AVAILABLE  WILL HAVE AN OPPORTUNITY TO
MOVE INTO THE AREA...INCLUDING FROM THE AZ/NM BORDER AREA. THUS
MODELS HAVENT DUMPED THE IDEA OF HAVING AT LEAST SOME CLOUD COVER
AROUND. TUESDAY MAX TEMPS SHOW AN UPWARD TREND DUE TO STRENGTHENING
HIGH PRESSURE BUT ALSO ACKNOWLEDGE SOME MEASURE OF CLOUDINESS
REDUCING THE INSOLATION. JUST HOW MUCH OF A REDUCTION THERE WILL BE
REMAINS TO BE SEEN. MADE ONLY MINOR TWEAKS TO MAX TEMPS FOR TUESDAY.
IN GENERAL...00Z MODELS ARE INDICATING A WESTWARD PROGRESSION OF QPF
OVER THE NEXT COUPLE DAYS. BUT FOR THURSDAY...BOTH GFS AND NAM SHOW
A DOWNTREND OVER SOUTHEAST ARIZONA DUE TO SOME DRY ADVECTION...MORE
NOTICEABLY THE GFS. EXCESSIVE HEAT WATCH CONTINUES FOR WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY. BIG X FACTOR THAT WILL AFFECT THE TEMPS WILL BE HOW MUCH
OR HOW LITTLE CLOUDINESS AND OUTFLOW AIR WE GET.

&&

.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION ISSUED 250 PM...
TONIGHT AND TUESDAY...
A BROAD MID/UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONE CENTERED OVER NEW MEXICO THE
NEXT SEVERAL DAYS SHOULD BEGIN TO BACK MID LEVEL WINDS FROM THE
SOUTHEAST DIRECTION WITH ADDITIONAL MOISTURE INCREASE. PROBLEM FOR
TOMORROW...AFTERNOON TEMPERATURE WISE IS...CONSIDERABLE CONVECTIVE
DEBRIS CLOUDS FROM MEXICO ARE EXPECTED TO FLOW INTO THE EASTERN HALF
OF AZ LATE TONIGHT/EARLY TUESDAY. CLOUDS COULD BE THICK ENOUGH FOR A
FEW VIRGA SHOWERS OVER THE EASTERN PORTIONS OF OUR FORECAST AREA...
PHOENIX EAST...WHICH COULD REDUCE AFTERNOON HEATING SOMEWHAT.
SOUTHEAST CA AND SOUTHWEST AZ SHOULD HAVE FULL SUNSHINE TUESDAY FOR
A SUBSTANTIAL WARM-UP. THE PROBLEM IS...BEST PERFORMING GUIDANCE
SHOWS LITTLE IN THE WAY AFTERNOON TEMPERATURE REDUCTION...DESPITE
CLOUDS...SO WILL CONTINUE TO SHADE TEMPERATURES UPWARD TOWARD THE
POTENTIAL HIGH SIDE.

WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...
AGAIN...THE BEST PERFORMING TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE CONTINUES THE
AFTERNOON WARM-UP INTO NEAR RECORD BREAKING TERRITORY WEDNESDAY
AND THURSDAY. THIS DESPITE MODEL GUIDANCE OF MORE CONVECTIVE DEBRIS
CLOUDS AND SLIGHTLY HIGHER HUMIDITIES. IN FACT...THE UPPER LEVEL
WIND FIELD ALONG WESTERN EDGE OF THE 300/250 MB ANTICYCLONES...OVER
CENTRAL AZ...INDICATE A LITTLE SPEED DIVERGENCE OR ACCELERATING
WIND FROM SOUTH TO NORTH THAT COULD SUPPORT A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS OR
SPRINKLES IN SOUTH CENTRAL AZ WED MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON.

SINCE THERE IS A LOT OF VARIABILITY IN CLOUD FORECASTS...AND BEST
PERFORMING AFTN TEMP GUIDANCE IS STILL BULLISH ON HIGHER VALUES...
WE DECIDED TO CONTINUE THE EXCESSIVE HEAT WATCH FOR WED AND THU. IN
OTHER WORDS...WE WILL WAIT AND SEE HOW THE CONVECTIVE DEBRIS CLOUD
FIELD FROM MEXICO MIGHT SETS UP LATER TONIGHT AND TUESDAY. SOUTHEAST
CA AND SOUTHWEST AZ WILL BE IN FULL SUNSHINE FOR MUCH HIGHER AFTN
TEMPERATURE WED AND THU.

FRIDAY THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.
A MUCH STRONGER EAST TO SOUTHEAST MID/UPPER LEVEL WIND FIELD IS
FORECAST TO DEVELOP...REPLETE WITH HARD TO TIME PERTURBATIONS OR
INVERTED TROFS FLOWING MAINLY ACROSS SOUTHERN AZ. THIS COULD PORTEND
AND UPSWING IN TYPICAL MONSOON DIURNAL CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY. PRECIP
PROBABILITIES WERE ADDED TO PORTIONS OF SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH CENTRAL
AZ.

&&

.CLIMATE...

RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURE FOR THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK.

CITY        JULY 22       JULY 23      JULY 24
----        -------       -------      -------
PHOENIX   116 IN 2006   114 IN 2006  114 IN 2006
YUMA      116 IN 2006   115 IN 1959  117 IN 1943

&&

.AVIATION...
SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA INCLUDING KPHX...KIWA...AND KSDL...
HIGH CLOUDS ANTICIPATED TO INCREASE AFTER 09Z BECOMING THICK AFTER
12Z DUE TO REMNANT CLOUDINESS FROM FORMER THUNDERSTORMS. EXPECT
CEILINGS TO REMAIN ABOVE 12 KFT MSL THOUGH THERE MAY BE SOME VIRGA.
ANTICIPATE THINNING TUESDAY AFTERNOON. OTHERWISE WINDS WILL BE LIGHT
THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING WITH WEST WINDS DEVELOPING IN THE AFTERNOON.

SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA AND SOUTHWEST ARIZONA INCLUDING KIPL AND KBLH...
SKIES WILL REMAIN CLEAR...EXCEPT FOR FEW-SCT CIRRUS...THROUGH
TUESDAY AFTERNOON. ANTICIPATE FAMILIAR DIURNAL WIND PATTERNS THE
REST OF TONIGHT AND DURING THE DAY TUESDAY WITH LIGHT WEST AND
SOUTHWEST WINDS BECOMING SOUTHEAST AND EAST DURING THE DAY.

AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDED TAFS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY...
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE END OF THIS WEEK
AND INTO NEXT WEEK AS STRONG HIGH PRESSURE SITS OVER THE REGION.
SOME MEASURE OF MONSOON MOISTURE WILL ENTER THE PICTURE DURING THIS
PERIOD...THOUGH THE MAGNITUDE OF INCREASE AND DURATION IS STILL
UNCERTAIN. REGARDLESS...AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORM CHANCES
WILL PERIODICALLY INCREASE WITH MORE BENEFICIAL RAINFALL IN GILA
COUNTY...AND LARGER THREATS FOR GUSTY WINDS WESTWARD INTO LOWER
ELEVATION DESERTS. MINIMUM HUMIDITIES WILL GENERALLY FALL INTO A
15-20 PERCENT RANGE WITH GOOD OVERNIGHT RECOVERY. OUTSIDE OF
STRONGER WIND GUSTS PRODUCED BY THUNDERSTORM...WINDS WILL BE
GENERALLY LIGHT AND FAVOR TYPICAL DIURNAL PATTERNS.

&&




 &&

.PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

AZ...EXCESSIVE HEAT WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY
EVENING AZZ020>023-025>028.

CA...EXCESSIVE HEAT WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY
EVENING CAZ031>033.

&&

$$

VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/PHOENIX

DISCUSSION...AJ
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...VASQUEZ
CLIMATE...MO
AVIATION....AJ
FIRE WEATHER...MO







000
FXUS65 KTWC 220412
AFDTWC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ
910 PM MST MON JUL 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...EXPECT ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS MOSTLY EAST
AND SOUTH OF TUCSON THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THIS WEEK. MUCH HOTTER
TEMPERATURES WILL OCCUR TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...WITH NEAR RECORD
HIGHS POSSIBLE. AN INCREASE IN THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY SHOULD OCCUR
LATE IN THE WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND.

&&

.DISCUSSION...AFTER A VERY QUIET JULY DAY...04Z IR IMAGERY WAS
SHOWING SCT-BKN SKIES OVER MUCH OF COCHISE...GREENLEE...GRAHAM...AND
SANTA CRUZ COUNTIES THIS EVENING. THE COOLEST CLOUD TOPS WERE IN
EXTREME SERN COCHISE COUNTY IN THE VICINITY OF KDUG IN THE FORM OF
SOME REMNANT DEBRIS CLOUDS FROM EARLIER THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IN NRN
SONORA MEXICO. AREA TEMPS GENERALLY RANGED FROM THE UPPER 70S IN
SOME OF THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS TO THE MID 90S IN THE WESTERN
DESERTS OF PIMA COUNTY...WITH SFC DEWPOINTS MAINLY IN THE 30S AND
40S EXCEPT NEAR THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER WHERE A FEW SPOTS WERE A
BIT MORE MOIST. LATEST RUN OF THE HRRR WAS TRYING FOR SOME LIGHT
PRECIP OVER SERN COCHISE CNTY BETWEEN 05Z AND 09Z TONIGHT...LIKELY
HITTING ON THE THICKER CLOUD COVER AND HIGHER DEWPOINTS. THE TWO
LOCAL WRF MODELS REMAINED DRY FOR THAT PERIOD. AS SUCH...HAVE CHOSEN
TO LEAVE IN ONLY SINGLE DIGIT POPS FOR THAT AREA...AS WE ARE LIKELY
TOO STABLE FOR ANY PRECIP TO OCCUR. FOLLOWING LATEST SATELLITE
TRENDS...AREAS TO THE SOUTH AND EAST OF TUCSON WILL LIKELY SEE THE
GREATEST PERCENTAGE OF CLOUD COVER OVERNIGHT TONIGHT...WITH WRN
PORTIONS FILLING IN WITH SOME MID AND HIGH LVL CLOUDS AS WE CLOSE IN
ON DAYBREAK. THE REST OF THE FORECAST IS ON TRACK...SO NO FURTHER
UPDATES ARE NEEDED. FOR MORE INFORMATION...PLEASE SEE THE PREVIOUS
DISCUSSION BELOW.

&&

.AVIATION...VALID THRU 23/06Z.
ISOLATED -TSRA/-SHRA WILL OCCUR MOSTLY EAST AND SOUTH OF KTUS
TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND TUESDAY EVENING. BRIEF WIND GUSTS TO NEAR 35
KTS MAY OCCUR WITH THIS ACTIVITY. OTHERWISE...EXPECT MOSTLY CLEAR
SKIES WEST OF KTUS AND A FEW TO BROKEN CLOUDS MAINLY ABOVE 10K FT
AGL EAST TO SOUTH OF KTUS THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING. AVIATION
DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR TAF AMENDMENTS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL INCREASE ACROSS SOUTHEAST
ARIZONA STARTING TUESDAY...THEN SCATTERED MOSTLY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING THUNDERSTORMS WILL PREVAIL BY THIS WEEKEND. EXPECT STRONG...
GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS WITH THE STRONGER THUNDERSTORMS. HOTTER
TEMPERATURES WILL ALSO OCCUR TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY FOLLOWED BY A
COOLING TREND BY THE WEEKEND.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...TUESDAY SHOULD SEE A SLIGHT UPTICK IN
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES AS THE HIGH SHIFTS TO A POSITION OVER WESTERN
COLORADO AND PWATS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE TO AROUND 1.3 - 1.4
INCHES. BY WEDNESDAY THE HIGH WILL BE OVER EASTERN COLORADO AND
WESTERN KANSAS WITH THE RIDGE AXIS NOSING INTO THE DESERT
SOUTHWEST...RESULTING IN SIGNIFICANTLY WARMER TEMPERATURES. PWATS
WILL CONTINUE IN THE 1.2 - 1.6 INCH RANGE FROM TUCSON TOWARD
AJO...WITH LOWER VALUES ALONG THE NEW MEXICO BORDER. GIVEN
THAT...EXPECT AN EVEN BETTER CHANCE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON FOR MOST
AREAS...EXCEPT FOR AREAS ALONG THE IMMEDIATE BORDER WITH NEW MEXICO.
BY THURSDAY ANOTHER DOWN SWING IN ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED AS THE HIGH
BECOMES CENTERED OVER EASTERN ARIZONA AND MUCH OF NEW MEXICO...AND
DRIER PWATS MOVE IN FROM THE EAST...WITH READINGS BELOW THE 1 INCH
MARK FROM TUCSON EASTWARD.

BY FRIDAY...BUT ESPECIALLY THIS WEEKEND...WE SHOULD SEE A FAIRLY
SIGNIFICANT INCREASE IN THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY AS AN UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE OVER NORTHERN MEXICO MOVES NORTHWEST ACROSS PARTS OF
SONORA...SOUTHERN ARIZONA AND NORTHERN BAJA...AND THE HIGH BECOMES
ORIENTED FROM SRN UTAH ACROSS NORTHEAST ARIZONA AND INTO NORTHERN
NEW MEXICO. THIS SETUP WILL GIVE ARIZONA A FAIRLY LONG EAST TO
SOUTHEASTERLY FETCH FOR ADDITIONAL MOISTURE TO SPILL INTO THE
REGION. THE HIGH TRANSITIONS OVER THE AZ/NM BORDER MONDAY FOR A
DECREASE IN ACTIVITY.

HIGH TEMPERATURES ABOVE NORMAL THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD...BUT
THE WARMEST DAYS WILL OCCUR WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...WHEN READINGS
WILL BE 8 TO 12 DEGS ABOVE NORMAL. OTHERWISE...EXPECT HIGHS TO BE 3
TO 6 DEGS ABOVE NORMAL. LOWS GENERALLY 4 TO 6 DEGS ABOVE NORMAL EACH
DAY...BUT THE WARMEST MORNINGS SHOULD OCCUR WEDNESDAY THROUGH
FRIDAY.

.TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...YOUTUBE...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/TUCSON

DISCUSSION...FRENCH
PREV DISCUSSION...MOLLERE
AVIATION/FIRE WEATHER...FRANCIS






000
FXUS65 KTWC 220412
AFDTWC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ
910 PM MST MON JUL 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...EXPECT ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS MOSTLY EAST
AND SOUTH OF TUCSON THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THIS WEEK. MUCH HOTTER
TEMPERATURES WILL OCCUR TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...WITH NEAR RECORD
HIGHS POSSIBLE. AN INCREASE IN THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY SHOULD OCCUR
LATE IN THE WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND.

&&

.DISCUSSION...AFTER A VERY QUIET JULY DAY...04Z IR IMAGERY WAS
SHOWING SCT-BKN SKIES OVER MUCH OF COCHISE...GREENLEE...GRAHAM...AND
SANTA CRUZ COUNTIES THIS EVENING. THE COOLEST CLOUD TOPS WERE IN
EXTREME SERN COCHISE COUNTY IN THE VICINITY OF KDUG IN THE FORM OF
SOME REMNANT DEBRIS CLOUDS FROM EARLIER THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IN NRN
SONORA MEXICO. AREA TEMPS GENERALLY RANGED FROM THE UPPER 70S IN
SOME OF THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS TO THE MID 90S IN THE WESTERN
DESERTS OF PIMA COUNTY...WITH SFC DEWPOINTS MAINLY IN THE 30S AND
40S EXCEPT NEAR THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER WHERE A FEW SPOTS WERE A
BIT MORE MOIST. LATEST RUN OF THE HRRR WAS TRYING FOR SOME LIGHT
PRECIP OVER SERN COCHISE CNTY BETWEEN 05Z AND 09Z TONIGHT...LIKELY
HITTING ON THE THICKER CLOUD COVER AND HIGHER DEWPOINTS. THE TWO
LOCAL WRF MODELS REMAINED DRY FOR THAT PERIOD. AS SUCH...HAVE CHOSEN
TO LEAVE IN ONLY SINGLE DIGIT POPS FOR THAT AREA...AS WE ARE LIKELY
TOO STABLE FOR ANY PRECIP TO OCCUR. FOLLOWING LATEST SATELLITE
TRENDS...AREAS TO THE SOUTH AND EAST OF TUCSON WILL LIKELY SEE THE
GREATEST PERCENTAGE OF CLOUD COVER OVERNIGHT TONIGHT...WITH WRN
PORTIONS FILLING IN WITH SOME MID AND HIGH LVL CLOUDS AS WE CLOSE IN
ON DAYBREAK. THE REST OF THE FORECAST IS ON TRACK...SO NO FURTHER
UPDATES ARE NEEDED. FOR MORE INFORMATION...PLEASE SEE THE PREVIOUS
DISCUSSION BELOW.

&&

.AVIATION...VALID THRU 23/06Z.
ISOLATED -TSRA/-SHRA WILL OCCUR MOSTLY EAST AND SOUTH OF KTUS
TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND TUESDAY EVENING. BRIEF WIND GUSTS TO NEAR 35
KTS MAY OCCUR WITH THIS ACTIVITY. OTHERWISE...EXPECT MOSTLY CLEAR
SKIES WEST OF KTUS AND A FEW TO BROKEN CLOUDS MAINLY ABOVE 10K FT
AGL EAST TO SOUTH OF KTUS THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING. AVIATION
DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR TAF AMENDMENTS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL INCREASE ACROSS SOUTHEAST
ARIZONA STARTING TUESDAY...THEN SCATTERED MOSTLY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING THUNDERSTORMS WILL PREVAIL BY THIS WEEKEND. EXPECT STRONG...
GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS WITH THE STRONGER THUNDERSTORMS. HOTTER
TEMPERATURES WILL ALSO OCCUR TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY FOLLOWED BY A
COOLING TREND BY THE WEEKEND.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...TUESDAY SHOULD SEE A SLIGHT UPTICK IN
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES AS THE HIGH SHIFTS TO A POSITION OVER WESTERN
COLORADO AND PWATS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE TO AROUND 1.3 - 1.4
INCHES. BY WEDNESDAY THE HIGH WILL BE OVER EASTERN COLORADO AND
WESTERN KANSAS WITH THE RIDGE AXIS NOSING INTO THE DESERT
SOUTHWEST...RESULTING IN SIGNIFICANTLY WARMER TEMPERATURES. PWATS
WILL CONTINUE IN THE 1.2 - 1.6 INCH RANGE FROM TUCSON TOWARD
AJO...WITH LOWER VALUES ALONG THE NEW MEXICO BORDER. GIVEN
THAT...EXPECT AN EVEN BETTER CHANCE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON FOR MOST
AREAS...EXCEPT FOR AREAS ALONG THE IMMEDIATE BORDER WITH NEW MEXICO.
BY THURSDAY ANOTHER DOWN SWING IN ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED AS THE HIGH
BECOMES CENTERED OVER EASTERN ARIZONA AND MUCH OF NEW MEXICO...AND
DRIER PWATS MOVE IN FROM THE EAST...WITH READINGS BELOW THE 1 INCH
MARK FROM TUCSON EASTWARD.

BY FRIDAY...BUT ESPECIALLY THIS WEEKEND...WE SHOULD SEE A FAIRLY
SIGNIFICANT INCREASE IN THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY AS AN UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE OVER NORTHERN MEXICO MOVES NORTHWEST ACROSS PARTS OF
SONORA...SOUTHERN ARIZONA AND NORTHERN BAJA...AND THE HIGH BECOMES
ORIENTED FROM SRN UTAH ACROSS NORTHEAST ARIZONA AND INTO NORTHERN
NEW MEXICO. THIS SETUP WILL GIVE ARIZONA A FAIRLY LONG EAST TO
SOUTHEASTERLY FETCH FOR ADDITIONAL MOISTURE TO SPILL INTO THE
REGION. THE HIGH TRANSITIONS OVER THE AZ/NM BORDER MONDAY FOR A
DECREASE IN ACTIVITY.

HIGH TEMPERATURES ABOVE NORMAL THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD...BUT
THE WARMEST DAYS WILL OCCUR WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...WHEN READINGS
WILL BE 8 TO 12 DEGS ABOVE NORMAL. OTHERWISE...EXPECT HIGHS TO BE 3
TO 6 DEGS ABOVE NORMAL. LOWS GENERALLY 4 TO 6 DEGS ABOVE NORMAL EACH
DAY...BUT THE WARMEST MORNINGS SHOULD OCCUR WEDNESDAY THROUGH
FRIDAY.

.TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...YOUTUBE...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/TUCSON

DISCUSSION...FRENCH
PREV DISCUSSION...MOLLERE
AVIATION/FIRE WEATHER...FRANCIS





000
FXUS65 KFGZ 220353
AFDFGZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ
853 PM MST MON JUL 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
BEGINNING TUESDAY...SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IS FORECAST
TO GRADUALLY INCREASE AS ADDITIONAL MOISTURE MOVES INTO THE
REGION. EXPECT THE WARMEST TEMPERATURES OF THE WEEK ON WEDNESDAY
AND THURSDAY WITH DAYTIME HIGH TEMPERATURES RUNNING SEVERAL
DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
MADE MINOR CHANGES TO SKY COVER FORECAST OVERNIGHT AND EARLY
TOMORROW. OTHERWISE...FORECAST IN GREAT SHAPE WITH NO
SIGNIFICANT SHORT-TERM UPDATES PLANNED THIS EVENING.

&&

.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION /328 PM MST/...
NORTHERN ARIZONA IS CURRENTLY POSITIONED IN BETWEEN A CLOSED LOW
OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC AND HIGH PRESSURE OVER NM/TX. THIS HAS
SET UP A DRY SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW SUPPRESSING CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY.
THE ONLY NOTABLE CLOUD COVER EXISTS ALONG THE EASTER BORDER WHERE
SOME ISOLATED CONVECTION AS WELL AS REMNANT DEBRIS FROM AN MCS
THAT FORMED OVERNIGHT OVER SONORA MEXICO EXISTS. THUNDERSTORMS
HAVE AGAIN BEEN OBSERVED ACROSS PORTIONS OF NORTHERN MEXICO...AND
MODELS INDICATE ANOTHER ROUND OF MID AND UPPER LEVEL CLOUD COVER
WILL ONCE AGAIN BE DRAWN NORTHWARD INTO NORTHERN ARIZONA BEGINNING
TOMORROW MORNING.

ON TUESDAY...MOISTURE IS FORECAST TO INCREASE A BIT AND THE
CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE ON THE RISE.
HOWEVER...THE LOW LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE WILL CONTINUE TO BE
RATHER DRY...SO DONT EXPECT MUCH RAINFALL TO REACH THE SURFACE.
GUSTY WINDS ARE LIKELY IN THE VICINITY OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS.

WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...AIDED BY THE PRESENCE OF ADDITIONAL
MOISTURE...THE BEST CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION THIS WORK WEEK
WILL LIKELY BE ON WEDNESDAY...WITH THE BEST CHANCES OF MEASURABLE
PRECIPITATION FROM FLAGSTAFF EASTWARD. WHILE THE CHANCES FOR
PRECIPITATION DECREASE A LITTLE ON THURSDAY...DAYTIME HIGH
TEMPERATURES WILL NOT. EXPECT VERY WARM TEMPERATURES ON WEDNESDAY
AND THURSDAY WITH TEMPERATURES RUNNING SEVERAL DEGREES ABOVE
NORMAL.

FRIDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND...EXPECT A CONTINUATION OF MOSTLY
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY...WITH BETTER SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE FROM THE COCONINO PLATEAU...MOGOLLON
RIM...AND WHITE MOUNTAINS SOUTHWARD.

&&

.AVIATION...
FOR THE 06Z PACKAGE...EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
PATCHY FU POSSIBLE VCNTY KSEZ...KFLG...KGCN. ISOLD -SHRA/TSRA
AFTER 18Z TUESDAY SOUTH OF A KPAN-KSJN LINE. AVIATION DISCUSSION
NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDMENTS.

&&

.FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC.........KD/RR
AVIATION.......KD

FOR NORTHERN ARIZONA WEATHER INFORMATION VISIT
WEATHER.GOV/FLAGSTAFF






000
FXUS65 KFGZ 220353
AFDFGZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ
853 PM MST MON JUL 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
BEGINNING TUESDAY...SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IS FORECAST
TO GRADUALLY INCREASE AS ADDITIONAL MOISTURE MOVES INTO THE
REGION. EXPECT THE WARMEST TEMPERATURES OF THE WEEK ON WEDNESDAY
AND THURSDAY WITH DAYTIME HIGH TEMPERATURES RUNNING SEVERAL
DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
MADE MINOR CHANGES TO SKY COVER FORECAST OVERNIGHT AND EARLY
TOMORROW. OTHERWISE...FORECAST IN GREAT SHAPE WITH NO
SIGNIFICANT SHORT-TERM UPDATES PLANNED THIS EVENING.

&&

.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION /328 PM MST/...
NORTHERN ARIZONA IS CURRENTLY POSITIONED IN BETWEEN A CLOSED LOW
OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC AND HIGH PRESSURE OVER NM/TX. THIS HAS
SET UP A DRY SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW SUPPRESSING CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY.
THE ONLY NOTABLE CLOUD COVER EXISTS ALONG THE EASTER BORDER WHERE
SOME ISOLATED CONVECTION AS WELL AS REMNANT DEBRIS FROM AN MCS
THAT FORMED OVERNIGHT OVER SONORA MEXICO EXISTS. THUNDERSTORMS
HAVE AGAIN BEEN OBSERVED ACROSS PORTIONS OF NORTHERN MEXICO...AND
MODELS INDICATE ANOTHER ROUND OF MID AND UPPER LEVEL CLOUD COVER
WILL ONCE AGAIN BE DRAWN NORTHWARD INTO NORTHERN ARIZONA BEGINNING
TOMORROW MORNING.

ON TUESDAY...MOISTURE IS FORECAST TO INCREASE A BIT AND THE
CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE ON THE RISE.
HOWEVER...THE LOW LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE WILL CONTINUE TO BE
RATHER DRY...SO DONT EXPECT MUCH RAINFALL TO REACH THE SURFACE.
GUSTY WINDS ARE LIKELY IN THE VICINITY OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS.

WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...AIDED BY THE PRESENCE OF ADDITIONAL
MOISTURE...THE BEST CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION THIS WORK WEEK
WILL LIKELY BE ON WEDNESDAY...WITH THE BEST CHANCES OF MEASURABLE
PRECIPITATION FROM FLAGSTAFF EASTWARD. WHILE THE CHANCES FOR
PRECIPITATION DECREASE A LITTLE ON THURSDAY...DAYTIME HIGH
TEMPERATURES WILL NOT. EXPECT VERY WARM TEMPERATURES ON WEDNESDAY
AND THURSDAY WITH TEMPERATURES RUNNING SEVERAL DEGREES ABOVE
NORMAL.

FRIDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND...EXPECT A CONTINUATION OF MOSTLY
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY...WITH BETTER SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE FROM THE COCONINO PLATEAU...MOGOLLON
RIM...AND WHITE MOUNTAINS SOUTHWARD.

&&

.AVIATION...
FOR THE 06Z PACKAGE...EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
PATCHY FU POSSIBLE VCNTY KSEZ...KFLG...KGCN. ISOLD -SHRA/TSRA
AFTER 18Z TUESDAY SOUTH OF A KPAN-KSJN LINE. AVIATION DISCUSSION
NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDMENTS.

&&

.FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC.........KD/RR
AVIATION.......KD

FOR NORTHERN ARIZONA WEATHER INFORMATION VISIT
WEATHER.GOV/FLAGSTAFF







000
FXUS65 KFGZ 212228
AFDFGZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ
328 PM MST MON JUL 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
BEGINNING TUESDAY...SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IS FORECAST
TO INCREASE AS ADDITIONAL MOISTURE MOVES INTO THE REGION. EXPECT
THE WARMEST TEMPERATURES OF THE WEEK ON WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY
WITH DAYTIME HIGH TEMPERATURES RUNNING SEVERAL DEGREES ABOVE
NORMAL.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
NORTHERN ARIZONA IS CURRENTLY POSITIONED IN BETWEEN A CLOSED LOW
OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC AND HIGH PRESSURE OVER NM/TX. THIS HAS
SET UP A DRY SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW SUPPRESSING CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY.
THE ONLY NOTABLE CLOUD COVER EXISTS ALONG THE EASTER BORDER WHERE
SOME ISOLATED CONVECTION AS WELL AS REMNANT DEBRIS FROM AN MCS
THAT FORMED OVERNIGHT OVER SONORA MEXICO EXISTS. THUNDERSTORMS
HAVE AGAIN BEEN OBSERVED ACROSS PORTIONS OF NORTHERN MEXICO...AND
MODELS INDICATE ANOTHER ROUND OF MID AND UPPER LEVEL CLOUD COVER
WILL ONCE AGAIN BE DRAWN NORTHWARD INTO NORTHERN ARIZONA BEGINNING
TOMORROW MORNING.

ON TUESDAY...MOISTURE IS FORECAST TO INCREASE A BIT AND THE
CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE ON THE RISE.
HOWEVER...THE LOW LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE WILL CONTINUE TO BE
RATHER DRY...SO DONT EXPECT MUCH RAINFALL TO REACH THE SURFACE.
GUSTY WINDS ARE LIKELY IN THE VICINITY OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS.

WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...AIDED BY THE PRESENCE OF ADDITIONAL
MOISTURE...THE BEST CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION THIS WORK WEEK WILL
LIKELY BE ON WEDNESDAY...WITH THE BEST CHANCES OF MEASURABLE
PRECIPITATION FROM FLAGSTAFF EASTWARD. WHILE THE CHANCES FOR
PRECIPITATION DECREASE A LITTLE ON THURSDAY...DAYTIME HIGH
TEMPERATURES WILL NOT. EXPECT VERY WARM TEMPERATURES ON WEDNESDAY
AND THURSDAY WITH TEMPERATURES RUNNING SEVERAL DEGREES ABOVE
NORMAL.

FRIDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND...EXPECT A CONTINUATION OF MOSTLY
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY...WITH BETTER SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE FROM THE COCONINO PLATEAU...MOGOLLON
RIM...AND WHITE MOUNTAINS SOUTHWARD.

&&

.AVIATION...
FOR THE 00Z PACKAGE...EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS FOR THE NEXT 24
HOURS. PATCHY FU POSSIBLE VCNTY KSEZ...KFLG...KGCN. ISOLD HIGH
BASED -SHRA/-TSRA TIL 02Z TODAY AROUND THE WHITE MOUNTAINS. ISOLD
-SHRA/TSRA AFTER 18Z TUESDAY SOUTH OF A KPAN-KSJN LINE. AVIATION
DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDMENTS.

&&

.FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC.........RR
AVIATION.......MAS

FOR NORTHERN ARIZONA WEATHER INFORMATION VISIT
WEATHER.GOV/FLAGSTAFF






000
FXUS65 KFGZ 212228
AFDFGZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ
328 PM MST MON JUL 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
BEGINNING TUESDAY...SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IS FORECAST
TO INCREASE AS ADDITIONAL MOISTURE MOVES INTO THE REGION. EXPECT
THE WARMEST TEMPERATURES OF THE WEEK ON WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY
WITH DAYTIME HIGH TEMPERATURES RUNNING SEVERAL DEGREES ABOVE
NORMAL.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
NORTHERN ARIZONA IS CURRENTLY POSITIONED IN BETWEEN A CLOSED LOW
OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC AND HIGH PRESSURE OVER NM/TX. THIS HAS
SET UP A DRY SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW SUPPRESSING CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY.
THE ONLY NOTABLE CLOUD COVER EXISTS ALONG THE EASTER BORDER WHERE
SOME ISOLATED CONVECTION AS WELL AS REMNANT DEBRIS FROM AN MCS
THAT FORMED OVERNIGHT OVER SONORA MEXICO EXISTS. THUNDERSTORMS
HAVE AGAIN BEEN OBSERVED ACROSS PORTIONS OF NORTHERN MEXICO...AND
MODELS INDICATE ANOTHER ROUND OF MID AND UPPER LEVEL CLOUD COVER
WILL ONCE AGAIN BE DRAWN NORTHWARD INTO NORTHERN ARIZONA BEGINNING
TOMORROW MORNING.

ON TUESDAY...MOISTURE IS FORECAST TO INCREASE A BIT AND THE
CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE ON THE RISE.
HOWEVER...THE LOW LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE WILL CONTINUE TO BE
RATHER DRY...SO DONT EXPECT MUCH RAINFALL TO REACH THE SURFACE.
GUSTY WINDS ARE LIKELY IN THE VICINITY OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS.

WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...AIDED BY THE PRESENCE OF ADDITIONAL
MOISTURE...THE BEST CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION THIS WORK WEEK WILL
LIKELY BE ON WEDNESDAY...WITH THE BEST CHANCES OF MEASURABLE
PRECIPITATION FROM FLAGSTAFF EASTWARD. WHILE THE CHANCES FOR
PRECIPITATION DECREASE A LITTLE ON THURSDAY...DAYTIME HIGH
TEMPERATURES WILL NOT. EXPECT VERY WARM TEMPERATURES ON WEDNESDAY
AND THURSDAY WITH TEMPERATURES RUNNING SEVERAL DEGREES ABOVE
NORMAL.

FRIDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND...EXPECT A CONTINUATION OF MOSTLY
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY...WITH BETTER SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE FROM THE COCONINO PLATEAU...MOGOLLON
RIM...AND WHITE MOUNTAINS SOUTHWARD.

&&

.AVIATION...
FOR THE 00Z PACKAGE...EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS FOR THE NEXT 24
HOURS. PATCHY FU POSSIBLE VCNTY KSEZ...KFLG...KGCN. ISOLD HIGH
BASED -SHRA/-TSRA TIL 02Z TODAY AROUND THE WHITE MOUNTAINS. ISOLD
-SHRA/TSRA AFTER 18Z TUESDAY SOUTH OF A KPAN-KSJN LINE. AVIATION
DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDMENTS.

&&

.FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC.........RR
AVIATION.......MAS

FOR NORTHERN ARIZONA WEATHER INFORMATION VISIT
WEATHER.GOV/FLAGSTAFF





000
FXUS65 KPSR 212147
AFDPSR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PHOENIX AZ
250 PM MST MON JUL 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A STRONG HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP OVER THE REGION
THIS WEEK...RESULTING IN VERY HOT TEMPERATURES BY WEDNESDAY. AT THE
SAME TIME...MONSOON MOISTURE WILL SLOWLY INCREASE OVER THE AREA...
WITH OCCASIONAL CLOUDINESS AT TIMES. INCREASED MOISTURE LEVELS...
COMBINED WITH SEVERAL WEAK WEATHER DISTURBANCES FROM MEXICO...ARE
FORECAST TO INCREASE THE CHANCE OF AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS...MAINLY ACROSS ARIZONA.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
TONIGHT AND TUESDAY...
A BROAD MID/UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONE CENTERED OVER NEW MEXICO THE
NEXT SEVERAL DAYS SHOULD BEGIN TO BACK MID LEVEL WINDS FROM THE
SOUTHEAST DIRECTION WITH ADDITIONAL MOISTURE INCREASE. PROBLEM FOR
TOMORROW...AFTERNOON TEMPERATURE WISE IS...CONSIDERABLE CONVECTIVE
DEBRIS CLOUDS FROM MEXICO ARE EXPECTED TO FLOW INTO THE EASTERN HALF
OF AZ LATE TONIGHT/EARLY TUESDAY. CLOUDS COULD BE THICK ENOUGH FOR A
FEW VIRGA SHOWERS OVER THE EASTERN PORTIONS OF OUR FORECAST AREA...
PHOENIX EAST...WHICH COULD REDUCE AFTERNOON HEATING SOMEWHAT.
SOUTHEAST CA AND SOUTHWEST AZ SHOULD HAVE FULL SUNSHINE TUESDAY FOR
A SUBSTANTIAL WARM-UP. THE PROBLEM IS...BEST PERFORMING GUIDANCE
SHOWS LITTLE IN THE WAY AFTERNOON TEMPERATURE REDUCTION...DESPITE
CLOUDS...SO WILL CONTINUE TO SHADE TEMPERATURES UPWARD TOWARD THE
POTENTIAL HIGH SIDE.

WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...
AGAIN...THE BEST PERFORMING TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE CONTINUES THE
AFTERNOON WARM-UP INTO NEAR RECORD BREAKING TERRITORY WEDNESDAY
AND THURSDAY. THIS DESPITE MODEL GUIDANCE OF MORE CONVECTIVE DEBRIS
CLOUDS AND SLIGHTLY HIGHER HUMIDITIES. IN FACT...THE UPPER LEVEL
WIND FIELD ALONG WESTERN EDGE OF THE 300/250 MB ANTICYCLONES...OVER
CENTRAL AZ...INDICATE A LITTLE SPEED DIVERGENCE OR ACCELERATING
WIND FROM SOUTH TO NORTH THAT COULD SUPPORT A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS OR
SPRINKLES IN SOUTH CENTRAL AZ WED MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON.

SINCE THERE IS A LOT OF VARIABILITY IN CLOUD FORECASTS...AND BEST
PERFORMING AFTN TEMP GUIDANCE IS STILL BULLISH ON HIGHER VALUES...
WE DECIDED TO CONTINUE THE EXCESSIVE HEAT WATCH FOR WED AND THU. IN
OTHER WORDS...WE WILL WAIT AND SEE HOW THE CONVECTIVE DEBRIS CLOUD
FIELD FROM MEXICO MIGHT SETS UP LATER TONIGHT AND TUESDAY. SOUTHEAST
CA AND SOUTHWEST AZ WILL BE IN FULL SUNSHINE FOR MUCH HIGHER AFTN
TEMPERATURE WED AND THU.

FRIDAY THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.
A MUCH STRONGER EAST TO SOUTHEAST MID/UPPER LEVEL WIND FIELD IS
FORECAST TO DEVELOP...REPLETE WITH HARD TO TIME PERTURBATIONS OR
INVERTED TROFS FLOWING MAINLY ACROSS SOUTHERN AZ. THIS COULD PORTEND
AND UPSWING IN TYPICAL MONSOON DIURNAL CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY. PRECIP
PROBABILITIES WERE ADDED TO PORTIONS OF SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH CENTRAL
AZ.

&&

.CLIMATE...

RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURE FOR THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK.

CITY        JULY 22       JULY 23      JULY 24
----        -------       -------      -------
PHOENIX   116 IN 2006   114 IN 2006  114 IN 2006
YUMA      116 IN 2006   115 IN 1959  117 IN 1943

&&

.AVIATION...
SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA INCLUDING KPHX...KIWA...AND KSDL...
NO SIGNIFICANT AVIATION IMPACTS THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING...WITH ONLY
A MARKED INCREASE IN MID/HIGH CLOUDS TOWARDS SUNRISE. CIG BASES
BETWEEN 15K-20K FT WILL ADVECT OVER TERMINALS LATE TONIGHT...AND
WOULD EXPECT FAIRLY EXTENSIVE VIRGA AFTER SUNRISE. SFC WINDS WILL
REMAIN LIGHT AOB 10KT WITH THE NOCTURNAL DIRECTIONAL CHANGE TIMED
SIMILAR TO THE PAST SEVERAL DAYS.

SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA AND SOUTHWEST ARIZONA INCLUDING KIPL AND KBLH...
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES WILL PRESENT NO AVIATION IMPACT THROUGH TUESDAY
MORNING. A FEW STRONGER S/W WIND GUSTS WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH
THIS EVENING...HOWEVER BECOMING MORE LIGHT AND VARIABLE LATE TONIGHT
AND THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS.

AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDED TAFS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY...
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE END OF THIS WEEK
AND INTO NEXT WEEK AS STRONG HIGH PRESSURE SITS OVER THE REGION.
SOME MEASURE OF MONSOON MOISTURE WILL ENTER THE PICTURE DURING THIS
PERIOD...THOUGH THE MAGNITUDE OF INCREASE AND DURATION IS STILL
UNCERTAIN. REGARDLESS...AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORM CHANCES
WILL PERIODICALLY INCREASE WITH MORE BENEFICIAL RAINFALL IN GILA
COUNTY...AND LARGER THREATS FOR GUSTY WINDS WESTWARD INTO LOWER
ELEVATION DESERTS. MINIMUM HUMIDITIES WILL GENERALLY FALL INTO A
15-20 PERCENT RANGE WITH GOOD OVERNIGHT RECOVERY. OUTSIDE OF
STRONGER WIND GUSTS PRODUCED BY THUNDERSTORM...WINDS WILL BE
GENERALLY LIGHT AND FAVOR TYPICAL DIURNAL PATTERNS.

&&




 &&

.PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

AZ...EXCESSIVE HEAT WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY
EVENING AZZ020>023-025>028.

CA...EXCESSIVE HEAT WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY
EVENING CAZ031>033.

&&

$$

VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/PHOENIX

DISCUSSION...VASQUEZ
CLIMATE...MO
AVIATION....MO
FIRE WEATHER...MO











000
FXUS65 KPSR 212147
AFDPSR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PHOENIX AZ
250 PM MST MON JUL 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A STRONG HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP OVER THE REGION
THIS WEEK...RESULTING IN VERY HOT TEMPERATURES BY WEDNESDAY. AT THE
SAME TIME...MONSOON MOISTURE WILL SLOWLY INCREASE OVER THE AREA...
WITH OCCASIONAL CLOUDINESS AT TIMES. INCREASED MOISTURE LEVELS...
COMBINED WITH SEVERAL WEAK WEATHER DISTURBANCES FROM MEXICO...ARE
FORECAST TO INCREASE THE CHANCE OF AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS...MAINLY ACROSS ARIZONA.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
TONIGHT AND TUESDAY...
A BROAD MID/UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONE CENTERED OVER NEW MEXICO THE
NEXT SEVERAL DAYS SHOULD BEGIN TO BACK MID LEVEL WINDS FROM THE
SOUTHEAST DIRECTION WITH ADDITIONAL MOISTURE INCREASE. PROBLEM FOR
TOMORROW...AFTERNOON TEMPERATURE WISE IS...CONSIDERABLE CONVECTIVE
DEBRIS CLOUDS FROM MEXICO ARE EXPECTED TO FLOW INTO THE EASTERN HALF
OF AZ LATE TONIGHT/EARLY TUESDAY. CLOUDS COULD BE THICK ENOUGH FOR A
FEW VIRGA SHOWERS OVER THE EASTERN PORTIONS OF OUR FORECAST AREA...
PHOENIX EAST...WHICH COULD REDUCE AFTERNOON HEATING SOMEWHAT.
SOUTHEAST CA AND SOUTHWEST AZ SHOULD HAVE FULL SUNSHINE TUESDAY FOR
A SUBSTANTIAL WARM-UP. THE PROBLEM IS...BEST PERFORMING GUIDANCE
SHOWS LITTLE IN THE WAY AFTERNOON TEMPERATURE REDUCTION...DESPITE
CLOUDS...SO WILL CONTINUE TO SHADE TEMPERATURES UPWARD TOWARD THE
POTENTIAL HIGH SIDE.

WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...
AGAIN...THE BEST PERFORMING TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE CONTINUES THE
AFTERNOON WARM-UP INTO NEAR RECORD BREAKING TERRITORY WEDNESDAY
AND THURSDAY. THIS DESPITE MODEL GUIDANCE OF MORE CONVECTIVE DEBRIS
CLOUDS AND SLIGHTLY HIGHER HUMIDITIES. IN FACT...THE UPPER LEVEL
WIND FIELD ALONG WESTERN EDGE OF THE 300/250 MB ANTICYCLONES...OVER
CENTRAL AZ...INDICATE A LITTLE SPEED DIVERGENCE OR ACCELERATING
WIND FROM SOUTH TO NORTH THAT COULD SUPPORT A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS OR
SPRINKLES IN SOUTH CENTRAL AZ WED MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON.

SINCE THERE IS A LOT OF VARIABILITY IN CLOUD FORECASTS...AND BEST
PERFORMING AFTN TEMP GUIDANCE IS STILL BULLISH ON HIGHER VALUES...
WE DECIDED TO CONTINUE THE EXCESSIVE HEAT WATCH FOR WED AND THU. IN
OTHER WORDS...WE WILL WAIT AND SEE HOW THE CONVECTIVE DEBRIS CLOUD
FIELD FROM MEXICO MIGHT SETS UP LATER TONIGHT AND TUESDAY. SOUTHEAST
CA AND SOUTHWEST AZ WILL BE IN FULL SUNSHINE FOR MUCH HIGHER AFTN
TEMPERATURE WED AND THU.

FRIDAY THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.
A MUCH STRONGER EAST TO SOUTHEAST MID/UPPER LEVEL WIND FIELD IS
FORECAST TO DEVELOP...REPLETE WITH HARD TO TIME PERTURBATIONS OR
INVERTED TROFS FLOWING MAINLY ACROSS SOUTHERN AZ. THIS COULD PORTEND
AND UPSWING IN TYPICAL MONSOON DIURNAL CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY. PRECIP
PROBABILITIES WERE ADDED TO PORTIONS OF SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH CENTRAL
AZ.

&&

.CLIMATE...

RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURE FOR THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK.

CITY        JULY 22       JULY 23      JULY 24
----        -------       -------      -------
PHOENIX   116 IN 2006   114 IN 2006  114 IN 2006
YUMA      116 IN 2006   115 IN 1959  117 IN 1943

&&

.AVIATION...
SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA INCLUDING KPHX...KIWA...AND KSDL...
NO SIGNIFICANT AVIATION IMPACTS THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING...WITH ONLY
A MARKED INCREASE IN MID/HIGH CLOUDS TOWARDS SUNRISE. CIG BASES
BETWEEN 15K-20K FT WILL ADVECT OVER TERMINALS LATE TONIGHT...AND
WOULD EXPECT FAIRLY EXTENSIVE VIRGA AFTER SUNRISE. SFC WINDS WILL
REMAIN LIGHT AOB 10KT WITH THE NOCTURNAL DIRECTIONAL CHANGE TIMED
SIMILAR TO THE PAST SEVERAL DAYS.

SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA AND SOUTHWEST ARIZONA INCLUDING KIPL AND KBLH...
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES WILL PRESENT NO AVIATION IMPACT THROUGH TUESDAY
MORNING. A FEW STRONGER S/W WIND GUSTS WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH
THIS EVENING...HOWEVER BECOMING MORE LIGHT AND VARIABLE LATE TONIGHT
AND THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS.

AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDED TAFS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY...
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE END OF THIS WEEK
AND INTO NEXT WEEK AS STRONG HIGH PRESSURE SITS OVER THE REGION.
SOME MEASURE OF MONSOON MOISTURE WILL ENTER THE PICTURE DURING THIS
PERIOD...THOUGH THE MAGNITUDE OF INCREASE AND DURATION IS STILL
UNCERTAIN. REGARDLESS...AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORM CHANCES
WILL PERIODICALLY INCREASE WITH MORE BENEFICIAL RAINFALL IN GILA
COUNTY...AND LARGER THREATS FOR GUSTY WINDS WESTWARD INTO LOWER
ELEVATION DESERTS. MINIMUM HUMIDITIES WILL GENERALLY FALL INTO A
15-20 PERCENT RANGE WITH GOOD OVERNIGHT RECOVERY. OUTSIDE OF
STRONGER WIND GUSTS PRODUCED BY THUNDERSTORM...WINDS WILL BE
GENERALLY LIGHT AND FAVOR TYPICAL DIURNAL PATTERNS.

&&




 &&

.PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

AZ...EXCESSIVE HEAT WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY
EVENING AZZ020>023-025>028.

CA...EXCESSIVE HEAT WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY
EVENING CAZ031>033.

&&

$$

VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/PHOENIX

DISCUSSION...VASQUEZ
CLIMATE...MO
AVIATION....MO
FIRE WEATHER...MO












000
FXUS65 KTWC 212107
AFDTWC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ
207 PM MST MON JUL 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...EXPECT ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS MOSTLY EAST
AND SOUTH OF TUCSON THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THIS WEEK. MUCH HOTTER
TEMPERATURES WILL OCCUR TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...WITH NEAR RECORD
HIGHS POSSIBLE. AN INCREASE IN THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY SHOULD OCCUR
LATE IN THE WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND.

&&

.DISCUSSION...WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND 21/12Z UPPER-AIR PLOTS SHOW A
RIDGE CENTERED IN THE GENERAL VICINITY OF SOUTHEASTERN NEW MEXICO
AND THE TEXAS PANHANDLE. THIS IS RESULTING IN SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW IN
THE MID TO UPPER LEVELS OVER ARIZONA. FLOW FROM THE SFC-500MB WAS
GENERALLY VERY LIGHT AT 5 TO 10 KNOTS. VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY
FROM EARLIER THIS MORNING SHOWED A NICE MCV OVER EXTREME NE SONORA
AND NW CHIHUAHUA MEXICO AS A RESULT OF THE COMPLEX THAT DEVELOPED
OVER SONORA MEXICO SUNDAY EVENING. CURRENTLY THIS MCV IS ALONG THE
ARIZONA/NEW MEXICO BORDER AND MOVING NORTH...BUT SHOULDN`T SURVIVE
FOR MUCH LONGER...BUT IS LIKELY ENHANCING SOME OF THE ACTIVITY IN
WESTERN NEW MEXICO. THE EXTENSIVE CLOUDINESS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS
MCV COVERED A LARGE SWATH ALONG THE AZ/NM BORDER AND WELL SOUTH INTO
NORTHERN MEXICO...BUT HAS MOSTLY ERODED THIS AFTERNOON WITH
CLOUDINESS ONLY LINGERING ACROSS EASTERN COCHISE AND EASTERN GRAHAM
COUNTIES AND MUCH OF GREENLEE COUNTY. A SMALL CUMULUS FIELD HAS
DEVELOPED OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN SOUTH OF THE BORDER BETWEEN
NOGALES AND DOUGLAS DURING THE PAST COUPLE OF HOURS OR SO.

ONE SMALL CELL HAS DEVELOPED OVER THE CHIRICAHUA MOUNTAINS OF EAST
CENTRAL COCHISE COUNTY...WITH ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT JUST ALONG THE
COCHISE COUNTY BORDER WITH MEXICO AND FARTHER SOUTHEAST OVER THE
SIERRA MADRES IN WESTERN CHIHUAHUA MEXICO. THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING SHOULD BE SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY WITH CONVECTION DEVELOPING
MOSTLY TO THE SOUTH OVER NORTHERN MEXICO...WITH A FEW CELLS POSSIBLE
OVER PARTS OF SANTA CRUZ AND COCHISE COUNTIES.

TUESDAY SHOULD SEE A SLIGHT UPTICK IN THUNDERSTORM CHANCES AS THE
HIGH SHIFTS TO A POSITION OVER WESTERN COLORADO AND PWATS ARE
EXPECTED TO INCREASE TO AROUND 1.3 - 1.4 INCHES. BY WEDNESDAY THE
HIGH WILL BE OVER EASTERN COLORADO AND WESTERN KANSAS WITH THE RIDGE
AXIS NOSING INTO THE DESERT SOUTHWEST...RESULTING IN SIGNIFICANTLY
WARMER TEMPERATURES. PWATS WILL CONTINUE IN THE 1.2 - 1.6 INCH RANGE
FROM TUCSON TOWARD AJO...WITH LOWER VALUES ALONG THE NEW MEXICO
BORDER. GIVEN THAT...EXPECT AN EVEN BETTER CHANCE WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON FOR MOST AREAS...EXCEPT FOR AREAS ALONG THE IMMEDIATE
BORDER WITH NEW MEXICO. BY THURSDAY ANOTHER DOWN SWING IN ACTIVITY
IS EXPECTED AS THE HIGH BECOMES CENTERED OVER EASTERN ARIZONA AND
MUCH OF NEW MEXICO...AND DRIER PWATS MOVE IN FROM THE EAST...WITH
READINGS BELOW THE 1 INCH MARK FROM TUCSON EASTWARD.

BY FRIDAY...BUT ESPECIALLY THIS WEEKEND...WE SHOULD SEE A FAIRLY
SIGNIFICANT INCREASE IN THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY AS AN UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE OVER NORTHERN MEXICO MOVES NORTHWEST ACROSS PARTS OF
SONORA...SOUTHERN ARIZONA AND NORTHERN BAJA...AND THE HIGH BECOMES
ORIENTED FROM SRN UTAH ACROSS NORTHEAST ARIZONA AND INTO NORTHERN
NEW MEXICO. THIS SETUP WILL GIVE ARIZONA A FAIRLY LONG EAST TO
SOUTHEASTERLY FETCH FOR ADDITIONAL MOISTURE TO SPILL INTO THE
REGION. THE HIGH TRANSITIONS OVER THE AZ/NM BORDER MONDAY FOR A
DECREASE IN ACTIVITY.

HIGH TEMPERATURES ABOVE NORMAL THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD...BUT
THE WARMEST DAYS WILL OCCUR WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...WHEN READINGS
WILL BE 8 TO 12 DEGS ABOVE NORMAL. OTHERWISE...EXPECT HIGHS TO BE 3
TO 6 DEGS ABOVE NORMAL. LOWS GENERALLY 4 TO 6 DEGS ABOVE NORMAL EACH
DAY...BUT THE WARMEST MORNINGS SHOULD OCCUR WEDNESDAY THROUGH
FRIDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...VALID THRU 23/00Z.  ISOLD -TSRA/-SHRA WILL CONTINUE IN
THE WHITE MOUNTAINS AND SOUTH/SOUTHEAST OF KTUS IN THE VICINITY OF
THE KOLS/KDUG TERMINALS THRU 22/04Z WITH BRIEF WIND GUSTS TO NEAR 35
KTS POSSIBLE.  OTHERWISE...SCT TO LOCALLY BKN 8K FT SCT-BKN 14K FT
EAST OF KTUS WITH CLEAR SKIES WEST OF KTUS.  BREEZY SURFACE WIND IN
THE GILA RIVER VALLEY WITH WLY/NWLY SURFACE WIND AT 12-17 KTS AND
GUSTS TO 25 MPH THRU 22/03Z.  OTHERWISE SFC WIND GENERALLY 12 KTS OR
LESS.  AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR TAF AMENDMENTS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...THERE WILL BE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS THIS
EVENING AND TUESDAY NEAR THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER FROM NOGALES TO
DOUGLAS AND IN THE EASTERN MOUNTAINS ALONG THE NEW MEXICO BORDER.
STRENGTHENING HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WILL RESULT IN HOTTER TEMPERATURES
TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.  WITH THE HOT TEMPS...INCREASED
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY SHOULD OCCUR STARTING ON WEDNESDAY AND
CONTINUE INTO NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...YOUTUBE...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/TUCSON

PUBLIC...MOLLERE
AVIATION/FIRE WEATHER...CERNIGLIA






000
FXUS65 KTWC 212107
AFDTWC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ
207 PM MST MON JUL 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...EXPECT ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS MOSTLY EAST
AND SOUTH OF TUCSON THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THIS WEEK. MUCH HOTTER
TEMPERATURES WILL OCCUR TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...WITH NEAR RECORD
HIGHS POSSIBLE. AN INCREASE IN THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY SHOULD OCCUR
LATE IN THE WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND.

&&

.DISCUSSION...WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND 21/12Z UPPER-AIR PLOTS SHOW A
RIDGE CENTERED IN THE GENERAL VICINITY OF SOUTHEASTERN NEW MEXICO
AND THE TEXAS PANHANDLE. THIS IS RESULTING IN SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW IN
THE MID TO UPPER LEVELS OVER ARIZONA. FLOW FROM THE SFC-500MB WAS
GENERALLY VERY LIGHT AT 5 TO 10 KNOTS. VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY
FROM EARLIER THIS MORNING SHOWED A NICE MCV OVER EXTREME NE SONORA
AND NW CHIHUAHUA MEXICO AS A RESULT OF THE COMPLEX THAT DEVELOPED
OVER SONORA MEXICO SUNDAY EVENING. CURRENTLY THIS MCV IS ALONG THE
ARIZONA/NEW MEXICO BORDER AND MOVING NORTH...BUT SHOULDN`T SURVIVE
FOR MUCH LONGER...BUT IS LIKELY ENHANCING SOME OF THE ACTIVITY IN
WESTERN NEW MEXICO. THE EXTENSIVE CLOUDINESS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS
MCV COVERED A LARGE SWATH ALONG THE AZ/NM BORDER AND WELL SOUTH INTO
NORTHERN MEXICO...BUT HAS MOSTLY ERODED THIS AFTERNOON WITH
CLOUDINESS ONLY LINGERING ACROSS EASTERN COCHISE AND EASTERN GRAHAM
COUNTIES AND MUCH OF GREENLEE COUNTY. A SMALL CUMULUS FIELD HAS
DEVELOPED OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN SOUTH OF THE BORDER BETWEEN
NOGALES AND DOUGLAS DURING THE PAST COUPLE OF HOURS OR SO.

ONE SMALL CELL HAS DEVELOPED OVER THE CHIRICAHUA MOUNTAINS OF EAST
CENTRAL COCHISE COUNTY...WITH ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT JUST ALONG THE
COCHISE COUNTY BORDER WITH MEXICO AND FARTHER SOUTHEAST OVER THE
SIERRA MADRES IN WESTERN CHIHUAHUA MEXICO. THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING SHOULD BE SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY WITH CONVECTION DEVELOPING
MOSTLY TO THE SOUTH OVER NORTHERN MEXICO...WITH A FEW CELLS POSSIBLE
OVER PARTS OF SANTA CRUZ AND COCHISE COUNTIES.

TUESDAY SHOULD SEE A SLIGHT UPTICK IN THUNDERSTORM CHANCES AS THE
HIGH SHIFTS TO A POSITION OVER WESTERN COLORADO AND PWATS ARE
EXPECTED TO INCREASE TO AROUND 1.3 - 1.4 INCHES. BY WEDNESDAY THE
HIGH WILL BE OVER EASTERN COLORADO AND WESTERN KANSAS WITH THE RIDGE
AXIS NOSING INTO THE DESERT SOUTHWEST...RESULTING IN SIGNIFICANTLY
WARMER TEMPERATURES. PWATS WILL CONTINUE IN THE 1.2 - 1.6 INCH RANGE
FROM TUCSON TOWARD AJO...WITH LOWER VALUES ALONG THE NEW MEXICO
BORDER. GIVEN THAT...EXPECT AN EVEN BETTER CHANCE WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON FOR MOST AREAS...EXCEPT FOR AREAS ALONG THE IMMEDIATE
BORDER WITH NEW MEXICO. BY THURSDAY ANOTHER DOWN SWING IN ACTIVITY
IS EXPECTED AS THE HIGH BECOMES CENTERED OVER EASTERN ARIZONA AND
MUCH OF NEW MEXICO...AND DRIER PWATS MOVE IN FROM THE EAST...WITH
READINGS BELOW THE 1 INCH MARK FROM TUCSON EASTWARD.

BY FRIDAY...BUT ESPECIALLY THIS WEEKEND...WE SHOULD SEE A FAIRLY
SIGNIFICANT INCREASE IN THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY AS AN UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE OVER NORTHERN MEXICO MOVES NORTHWEST ACROSS PARTS OF
SONORA...SOUTHERN ARIZONA AND NORTHERN BAJA...AND THE HIGH BECOMES
ORIENTED FROM SRN UTAH ACROSS NORTHEAST ARIZONA AND INTO NORTHERN
NEW MEXICO. THIS SETUP WILL GIVE ARIZONA A FAIRLY LONG EAST TO
SOUTHEASTERLY FETCH FOR ADDITIONAL MOISTURE TO SPILL INTO THE
REGION. THE HIGH TRANSITIONS OVER THE AZ/NM BORDER MONDAY FOR A
DECREASE IN ACTIVITY.

HIGH TEMPERATURES ABOVE NORMAL THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD...BUT
THE WARMEST DAYS WILL OCCUR WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...WHEN READINGS
WILL BE 8 TO 12 DEGS ABOVE NORMAL. OTHERWISE...EXPECT HIGHS TO BE 3
TO 6 DEGS ABOVE NORMAL. LOWS GENERALLY 4 TO 6 DEGS ABOVE NORMAL EACH
DAY...BUT THE WARMEST MORNINGS SHOULD OCCUR WEDNESDAY THROUGH
FRIDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...VALID THRU 23/00Z.  ISOLD -TSRA/-SHRA WILL CONTINUE IN
THE WHITE MOUNTAINS AND SOUTH/SOUTHEAST OF KTUS IN THE VICINITY OF
THE KOLS/KDUG TERMINALS THRU 22/04Z WITH BRIEF WIND GUSTS TO NEAR 35
KTS POSSIBLE.  OTHERWISE...SCT TO LOCALLY BKN 8K FT SCT-BKN 14K FT
EAST OF KTUS WITH CLEAR SKIES WEST OF KTUS.  BREEZY SURFACE WIND IN
THE GILA RIVER VALLEY WITH WLY/NWLY SURFACE WIND AT 12-17 KTS AND
GUSTS TO 25 MPH THRU 22/03Z.  OTHERWISE SFC WIND GENERALLY 12 KTS OR
LESS.  AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR TAF AMENDMENTS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...THERE WILL BE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS THIS
EVENING AND TUESDAY NEAR THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER FROM NOGALES TO
DOUGLAS AND IN THE EASTERN MOUNTAINS ALONG THE NEW MEXICO BORDER.
STRENGTHENING HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WILL RESULT IN HOTTER TEMPERATURES
TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.  WITH THE HOT TEMPS...INCREASED
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY SHOULD OCCUR STARTING ON WEDNESDAY AND
CONTINUE INTO NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...YOUTUBE...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/TUCSON

PUBLIC...MOLLERE
AVIATION/FIRE WEATHER...CERNIGLIA







000
FXUS65 KFGZ 211604
AFDFGZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ
904 AM MST MON JUL 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO BRING DRY AIR INTO
THE REGION AT LEAST THROUGH TODAY. THE UPPER LEVEL HIGH WILL SHIFT
EAST IN NEW MEXICO BY TUESDAY AND A DISTURBANCE HEADING NORTHWEST
ACROSS NORTHERN MEXICO WILL HELP TO PUSH ADDITIONAL MOISTURE INTO
ARIZONA LATE TUESDAY. FROM WEDNESDAY INTO THIS WEEKEND THE FORECAST
HAS AN INCREASING TREND FOR AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY FROM THE COCONINO PLATEAU...MOGOLLON RIM...AND
WHITE MOUNTAINS SOUTHWARD.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
THE CURRENT FORECAST APPEARS TO BE ON TRACK. FOR TODAY...THE
ATMOSPHERE IS QUITE DRY ACROSS NORTHERN ARIZONA EXCEPT FOR
SOUTHERN APACHE COUNTY WHERE THERE IS ENOUGH BOUDARY LAYER
MOISTURE FOR SOME ISOLATED CONVECTION OVER HIGHER TERRAIN.
ELSEWHERE...EXPECT SUNNY SKIES AND NEAR TO ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES.

&&

.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION /305 AM MST/...
A LOW PRESSURE TROUGH ALONG THE CALIFORNIA COAST WILL
CONTINUE TO BRING A DRY SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW TO NORTHERN ARIZONA AT
LEAST THROUGH TODAY AND INTO PORTIONS OF NORTHWEST ARIZONA ON
TUESDAY. THE UPPER HIGH IS FORECAST TO SHIFT INTO NEW MEXICO TUESDAY
AND A WEATHER DISTURBANCE MOVING WEST-NORTHWEST ACROSS NORTHERN
MEXICO WILL AID IN THE RETURN OF A MOIST SOUTH-SOUTHEAST FLOW AND
INCREASING CHANCES OF AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. TUESDAY...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE FORECAST TO
INCREASE OVER THE EASTERN MOGOLLON RIM AND WHITE MOUNTAINS AND THEN
CONTINUE TO SPREAD NORTHWESTWARD ACROSS NORTHERN ARIZONA THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE WEEK.

SIX MANAGED WILDFIRES...THE SMOKE PLUMES WERE EVIDENT ON THE GOES
VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY SUNDAY DURING THE DAY...FROM THE GRAND
CANYON REGION SOUTHEAST ALONG THE MOGOLLON RIM TO JUST NORTH OF
PAYSON. THESE FIRE WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING PATCHY SMOKE NEAR
THE GROUND IN THE VICINITY AROUND EACH FIRE.

WEDNESDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND...THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL INCREASE
TO AROUND 20 TO 40 PERCENT CHANCE...MAINLY FROM THE COCONINO
PLATEAU...MOGOLLON RIM...AND WHITE MOUNTAINS SOUTHWARD.

&&

.AVIATION...
FOR THE 18Z PACKAGE...EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS FOR THE NEXT 24
HOURS. PATCHY FU POSSIBLE VCNTY KSEZ...KFLG...KGCN. ISOLD HIGH
BASED -SHRA/-TSRA FROM 18Z-02Z TODAY AROUND THE WHITE MOUNTAINS.
AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDMENTS.

&&

.FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC.........RR/TC
AVIATION.......MAS

FOR NORTHERN ARIZONA WEATHER INFORMATION VISIT
WEATHER.GOV/FLAGSTAFF





000
FXUS65 KTWC 211600
AFDTWC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ
900 AM MST MON JUL 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...EXPECT ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS MOSTLY EAST
AND SOUTH OF TUCSON THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THIS WEEK. MUCH HOTTER
TEMPERATURES WILL OCCUR TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...WITH NEAR RECORD
HIGHS POSSIBLE. AN INCREASE IN THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY SHOULD OCCUR
LATE IN THE WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND.

&&

.DISCUSSION...WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND 21/12Z UPPER-AIR PLOTS SHOW A
RIDGE CENTERED IN THE GENERAL VICINITY OF EASTERN NEW MEXICO AND THE
TEXAS PANHANDLE. THIS IS RESULTING IN SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW IN THE MID
TO UPPER LEVELS. FLOW FROM THE SFC-500MB IS GENERALLY VERY LIGHT AT
5 TO 10 KNOTS. VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A MCV OVER EXTREME NE
SONORA AND NW CHIHUAHUA MEXICO AS A RESULT OF THE COMPLEX THAT
DEVELOPED OVER SONORA MEXICO YESTERDAY EVENING. EXTENSIVE CLOUDINESS
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS MCV COVER A LARGE SWATH ALONG THE AZ/NM BORDER
AND WELL SOUTH INTO NORTHERN MEXICO. THESE CLOUDS ARE STREAMING TO
THE NORTH NORTHEAST AND SHOULD SLOWLY ERODE DURING THE DAY.

THIS MORNINGS KTWC UNMODIFIED SOUNDING INDICATED A PRECIPITABLE
WATER VALUE OF 1.12 INCHES...WITH A LIFTED INDEX OF ZERO AND A CAPE
OF AROUND 40 J/KG. MODIFYING THE SOUNDING USING T=102;TD=41 YIELDS A
LI OF PLUS 1 AND NO APPRECIABLE CAPE. NEEDLESS TO SAY...WE SHOULDN`T
SEE ANY CONVECTION THIS AFTERNOON OR EVENING. WILL LIKELY SEE SOME
ACTIVITY AGAIN TODAY SOUTH OF THE BORDER. THAT SAID...I WILL TRIM
BACK POPS FOR THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...BUT WILL KEEP A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS RIGHT ALONG THE INTERNATIONAL
BORDER FROM NOGALES TO DOUGLAS...AND ALSO OVER THE EASTERN MOST
MOUNTAINS.

AS OF 15Z (8 AM MST)...TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE REGION RANGED FROM
THE MID 70S TO THE MID 80S...WITH THE TUCSON INTL AIRPORT REPORTING
A TEMP OF 84 DEGS AFTER A MORNING LOW OF 81 DEGS. THESE READINGS
SEEM TO BE ON TRACK WITH EXPECTED AFTERNOON HIGH TEMPERATURES...BUT
WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR. WILL MAKE SOME MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO THE
SHORT TERM HOURLY TEMPERATURE GRIDS TO REFLECT THE LATEST TEMP
TRENDS.

FOR DETAILS REGARDING THE FORECAST BEYOND TODAY...PLEASE REFER TO
THE PREVIOUS DISCUSSION BELOW.

&&

.AVIATION...THERE WILL BE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF -TSRA/-SHRA IN THE
WHITE MOUNTAINS NE OF KSAD...AND SOUTH/SOUTHEAST OF KTUS IN THE
VICINITY OF THE KOLS/KDUG TERMINALS. BRIEF WIND GUSTS TO NEAR 35 KTS
MAY OCCUR WITH THIS ACTIVITY. OTHERWISE...CLOUD DECKS FROM KTUS
EWD/SWD WILL MOSTLY BE ABOVE 10K FT AGL OUTSIDE OF TSRA. MOSTLY
CLEAR SKIES ARE EXPECTED WEST OF KTUS. BREEZY SURFACE WIND IN THE
GILA RIVER VALLEY IN THE VICINITY OF KSAD...WITH WLY/NWLY SURFACE
WIND AT 12-17 KTS THIS AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING. OTHERWISE...SURFACE
WIND OUTSIDE OF ANY TSRA OUTFLOW INFLUENCES WILL GENERALLY BE 12 KTS
OR LESS. AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR TAF AMENDMENTS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...THERE WILL BE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS TODAY
AND TUESDAY MAINLY NEAR THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER FROM NOGALES TO
DOUGLAS AND IN THE EASTERN MOUNTAINS ALONG THE NEW MEXICO BORDER.
STRENGTHENING HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WILL RESULT IN HOTTER TEMPERATURES
TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY. THEREAFTER...INCREASED THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY SHOULD OCCUR STARTING ON WEDNESDAY AND CONTINUING INTO NEXT
WEEKEND. BREEZY WINDS ARE EXPECTED ONCE AGAIN TODAY IN THE UPPER
GILA RIVER VALLEY AROUND SAFFORD.

&&

.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...DEEP MOISTURE NEEDED TO SUPPORT THUNDERSTORMS
WILL BE RATHER LIMITED THE NEXT FEW DAYS. THIS LACK OF MOISTURE
COMBINED WITH THE STRENGTHENING OF HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WILL RESULT
IN RECORD OR NEAR RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES AROUND WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY. THE CURRENT FORECAST STILL CALLS FOR HIGH TEMPERATURES TO
BE ABOUT 5 DEGREES WARMER THAN MOS GUIDANCE. THIS PROJECTION LOOKED
REASONABLE BASED ON FORECAST THICKNESS VALUES WHICH TEND TO
CORRELATE WELL WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES. THE ONLY QUESTION WILL BE THE
AMOUNT OF MOISTURE WHICH WILL BE ON THE INCREASE AS THE UPPER HIGH
BUILDS AND BECOMES CENTERED AROUND EAST-CENTRAL ARIZONA. AT ANY
RATE...THE EXCESSIVE HEAT IN COMBINATION WITH A MORE FAVORABLE FLOW
PATTERN FOR THUNDERSTORMS WILL BRING ELEVATED RAIN CHANCES BY THE
END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...YOUTUBE...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/TUCSON







000
FXUS65 KTWC 211600
AFDTWC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ
900 AM MST MON JUL 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...EXPECT ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS MOSTLY EAST
AND SOUTH OF TUCSON THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THIS WEEK. MUCH HOTTER
TEMPERATURES WILL OCCUR TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...WITH NEAR RECORD
HIGHS POSSIBLE. AN INCREASE IN THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY SHOULD OCCUR
LATE IN THE WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND.

&&

.DISCUSSION...WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND 21/12Z UPPER-AIR PLOTS SHOW A
RIDGE CENTERED IN THE GENERAL VICINITY OF EASTERN NEW MEXICO AND THE
TEXAS PANHANDLE. THIS IS RESULTING IN SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW IN THE MID
TO UPPER LEVELS. FLOW FROM THE SFC-500MB IS GENERALLY VERY LIGHT AT
5 TO 10 KNOTS. VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A MCV OVER EXTREME NE
SONORA AND NW CHIHUAHUA MEXICO AS A RESULT OF THE COMPLEX THAT
DEVELOPED OVER SONORA MEXICO YESTERDAY EVENING. EXTENSIVE CLOUDINESS
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS MCV COVER A LARGE SWATH ALONG THE AZ/NM BORDER
AND WELL SOUTH INTO NORTHERN MEXICO. THESE CLOUDS ARE STREAMING TO
THE NORTH NORTHEAST AND SHOULD SLOWLY ERODE DURING THE DAY.

THIS MORNINGS KTWC UNMODIFIED SOUNDING INDICATED A PRECIPITABLE
WATER VALUE OF 1.12 INCHES...WITH A LIFTED INDEX OF ZERO AND A CAPE
OF AROUND 40 J/KG. MODIFYING THE SOUNDING USING T=102;TD=41 YIELDS A
LI OF PLUS 1 AND NO APPRECIABLE CAPE. NEEDLESS TO SAY...WE SHOULDN`T
SEE ANY CONVECTION THIS AFTERNOON OR EVENING. WILL LIKELY SEE SOME
ACTIVITY AGAIN TODAY SOUTH OF THE BORDER. THAT SAID...I WILL TRIM
BACK POPS FOR THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...BUT WILL KEEP A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS RIGHT ALONG THE INTERNATIONAL
BORDER FROM NOGALES TO DOUGLAS...AND ALSO OVER THE EASTERN MOST
MOUNTAINS.

AS OF 15Z (8 AM MST)...TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE REGION RANGED FROM
THE MID 70S TO THE MID 80S...WITH THE TUCSON INTL AIRPORT REPORTING
A TEMP OF 84 DEGS AFTER A MORNING LOW OF 81 DEGS. THESE READINGS
SEEM TO BE ON TRACK WITH EXPECTED AFTERNOON HIGH TEMPERATURES...BUT
WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR. WILL MAKE SOME MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO THE
SHORT TERM HOURLY TEMPERATURE GRIDS TO REFLECT THE LATEST TEMP
TRENDS.

FOR DETAILS REGARDING THE FORECAST BEYOND TODAY...PLEASE REFER TO
THE PREVIOUS DISCUSSION BELOW.

&&

.AVIATION...THERE WILL BE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF -TSRA/-SHRA IN THE
WHITE MOUNTAINS NE OF KSAD...AND SOUTH/SOUTHEAST OF KTUS IN THE
VICINITY OF THE KOLS/KDUG TERMINALS. BRIEF WIND GUSTS TO NEAR 35 KTS
MAY OCCUR WITH THIS ACTIVITY. OTHERWISE...CLOUD DECKS FROM KTUS
EWD/SWD WILL MOSTLY BE ABOVE 10K FT AGL OUTSIDE OF TSRA. MOSTLY
CLEAR SKIES ARE EXPECTED WEST OF KTUS. BREEZY SURFACE WIND IN THE
GILA RIVER VALLEY IN THE VICINITY OF KSAD...WITH WLY/NWLY SURFACE
WIND AT 12-17 KTS THIS AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING. OTHERWISE...SURFACE
WIND OUTSIDE OF ANY TSRA OUTFLOW INFLUENCES WILL GENERALLY BE 12 KTS
OR LESS. AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR TAF AMENDMENTS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...THERE WILL BE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS TODAY
AND TUESDAY MAINLY NEAR THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER FROM NOGALES TO
DOUGLAS AND IN THE EASTERN MOUNTAINS ALONG THE NEW MEXICO BORDER.
STRENGTHENING HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WILL RESULT IN HOTTER TEMPERATURES
TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY. THEREAFTER...INCREASED THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY SHOULD OCCUR STARTING ON WEDNESDAY AND CONTINUING INTO NEXT
WEEKEND. BREEZY WINDS ARE EXPECTED ONCE AGAIN TODAY IN THE UPPER
GILA RIVER VALLEY AROUND SAFFORD.

&&

.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...DEEP MOISTURE NEEDED TO SUPPORT THUNDERSTORMS
WILL BE RATHER LIMITED THE NEXT FEW DAYS. THIS LACK OF MOISTURE
COMBINED WITH THE STRENGTHENING OF HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WILL RESULT
IN RECORD OR NEAR RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES AROUND WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY. THE CURRENT FORECAST STILL CALLS FOR HIGH TEMPERATURES TO
BE ABOUT 5 DEGREES WARMER THAN MOS GUIDANCE. THIS PROJECTION LOOKED
REASONABLE BASED ON FORECAST THICKNESS VALUES WHICH TEND TO
CORRELATE WELL WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES. THE ONLY QUESTION WILL BE THE
AMOUNT OF MOISTURE WHICH WILL BE ON THE INCREASE AS THE UPPER HIGH
BUILDS AND BECOMES CENTERED AROUND EAST-CENTRAL ARIZONA. AT ANY
RATE...THE EXCESSIVE HEAT IN COMBINATION WITH A MORE FAVORABLE FLOW
PATTERN FOR THUNDERSTORMS WILL BRING ELEVATED RAIN CHANCES BY THE
END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...YOUTUBE...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/TUCSON







000
FXUS65 KTWC 211600
AFDTWC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ
900 AM MST MON JUL 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...EXPECT ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS MOSTLY EAST
AND SOUTH OF TUCSON THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THIS WEEK. MUCH HOTTER
TEMPERATURES WILL OCCUR TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...WITH NEAR RECORD
HIGHS POSSIBLE. AN INCREASE IN THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY SHOULD OCCUR
LATE IN THE WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND.

&&

.DISCUSSION...WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND 21/12Z UPPER-AIR PLOTS SHOW A
RIDGE CENTERED IN THE GENERAL VICINITY OF EASTERN NEW MEXICO AND THE
TEXAS PANHANDLE. THIS IS RESULTING IN SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW IN THE MID
TO UPPER LEVELS. FLOW FROM THE SFC-500MB IS GENERALLY VERY LIGHT AT
5 TO 10 KNOTS. VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A MCV OVER EXTREME NE
SONORA AND NW CHIHUAHUA MEXICO AS A RESULT OF THE COMPLEX THAT
DEVELOPED OVER SONORA MEXICO YESTERDAY EVENING. EXTENSIVE CLOUDINESS
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS MCV COVER A LARGE SWATH ALONG THE AZ/NM BORDER
AND WELL SOUTH INTO NORTHERN MEXICO. THESE CLOUDS ARE STREAMING TO
THE NORTH NORTHEAST AND SHOULD SLOWLY ERODE DURING THE DAY.

THIS MORNINGS KTWC UNMODIFIED SOUNDING INDICATED A PRECIPITABLE
WATER VALUE OF 1.12 INCHES...WITH A LIFTED INDEX OF ZERO AND A CAPE
OF AROUND 40 J/KG. MODIFYING THE SOUNDING USING T=102;TD=41 YIELDS A
LI OF PLUS 1 AND NO APPRECIABLE CAPE. NEEDLESS TO SAY...WE SHOULDN`T
SEE ANY CONVECTION THIS AFTERNOON OR EVENING. WILL LIKELY SEE SOME
ACTIVITY AGAIN TODAY SOUTH OF THE BORDER. THAT SAID...I WILL TRIM
BACK POPS FOR THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...BUT WILL KEEP A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS RIGHT ALONG THE INTERNATIONAL
BORDER FROM NOGALES TO DOUGLAS...AND ALSO OVER THE EASTERN MOST
MOUNTAINS.

AS OF 15Z (8 AM MST)...TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE REGION RANGED FROM
THE MID 70S TO THE MID 80S...WITH THE TUCSON INTL AIRPORT REPORTING
A TEMP OF 84 DEGS AFTER A MORNING LOW OF 81 DEGS. THESE READINGS
SEEM TO BE ON TRACK WITH EXPECTED AFTERNOON HIGH TEMPERATURES...BUT
WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR. WILL MAKE SOME MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO THE
SHORT TERM HOURLY TEMPERATURE GRIDS TO REFLECT THE LATEST TEMP
TRENDS.

FOR DETAILS REGARDING THE FORECAST BEYOND TODAY...PLEASE REFER TO
THE PREVIOUS DISCUSSION BELOW.

&&

.AVIATION...THERE WILL BE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF -TSRA/-SHRA IN THE
WHITE MOUNTAINS NE OF KSAD...AND SOUTH/SOUTHEAST OF KTUS IN THE
VICINITY OF THE KOLS/KDUG TERMINALS. BRIEF WIND GUSTS TO NEAR 35 KTS
MAY OCCUR WITH THIS ACTIVITY. OTHERWISE...CLOUD DECKS FROM KTUS
EWD/SWD WILL MOSTLY BE ABOVE 10K FT AGL OUTSIDE OF TSRA. MOSTLY
CLEAR SKIES ARE EXPECTED WEST OF KTUS. BREEZY SURFACE WIND IN THE
GILA RIVER VALLEY IN THE VICINITY OF KSAD...WITH WLY/NWLY SURFACE
WIND AT 12-17 KTS THIS AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING. OTHERWISE...SURFACE
WIND OUTSIDE OF ANY TSRA OUTFLOW INFLUENCES WILL GENERALLY BE 12 KTS
OR LESS. AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR TAF AMENDMENTS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...THERE WILL BE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS TODAY
AND TUESDAY MAINLY NEAR THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER FROM NOGALES TO
DOUGLAS AND IN THE EASTERN MOUNTAINS ALONG THE NEW MEXICO BORDER.
STRENGTHENING HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WILL RESULT IN HOTTER TEMPERATURES
TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY. THEREAFTER...INCREASED THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY SHOULD OCCUR STARTING ON WEDNESDAY AND CONTINUING INTO NEXT
WEEKEND. BREEZY WINDS ARE EXPECTED ONCE AGAIN TODAY IN THE UPPER
GILA RIVER VALLEY AROUND SAFFORD.

&&

.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...DEEP MOISTURE NEEDED TO SUPPORT THUNDERSTORMS
WILL BE RATHER LIMITED THE NEXT FEW DAYS. THIS LACK OF MOISTURE
COMBINED WITH THE STRENGTHENING OF HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WILL RESULT
IN RECORD OR NEAR RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES AROUND WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY. THE CURRENT FORECAST STILL CALLS FOR HIGH TEMPERATURES TO
BE ABOUT 5 DEGREES WARMER THAN MOS GUIDANCE. THIS PROJECTION LOOKED
REASONABLE BASED ON FORECAST THICKNESS VALUES WHICH TEND TO
CORRELATE WELL WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES. THE ONLY QUESTION WILL BE THE
AMOUNT OF MOISTURE WHICH WILL BE ON THE INCREASE AS THE UPPER HIGH
BUILDS AND BECOMES CENTERED AROUND EAST-CENTRAL ARIZONA. AT ANY
RATE...THE EXCESSIVE HEAT IN COMBINATION WITH A MORE FAVORABLE FLOW
PATTERN FOR THUNDERSTORMS WILL BRING ELEVATED RAIN CHANCES BY THE
END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

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000
FXUS65 KTWC 211600
AFDTWC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ
900 AM MST MON JUL 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...EXPECT ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS MOSTLY EAST
AND SOUTH OF TUCSON THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THIS WEEK. MUCH HOTTER
TEMPERATURES WILL OCCUR TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...WITH NEAR RECORD
HIGHS POSSIBLE. AN INCREASE IN THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY SHOULD OCCUR
LATE IN THE WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND.

&&

.DISCUSSION...WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND 21/12Z UPPER-AIR PLOTS SHOW A
RIDGE CENTERED IN THE GENERAL VICINITY OF EASTERN NEW MEXICO AND THE
TEXAS PANHANDLE. THIS IS RESULTING IN SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW IN THE MID
TO UPPER LEVELS. FLOW FROM THE SFC-500MB IS GENERALLY VERY LIGHT AT
5 TO 10 KNOTS. VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A MCV OVER EXTREME NE
SONORA AND NW CHIHUAHUA MEXICO AS A RESULT OF THE COMPLEX THAT
DEVELOPED OVER SONORA MEXICO YESTERDAY EVENING. EXTENSIVE CLOUDINESS
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS MCV COVER A LARGE SWATH ALONG THE AZ/NM BORDER
AND WELL SOUTH INTO NORTHERN MEXICO. THESE CLOUDS ARE STREAMING TO
THE NORTH NORTHEAST AND SHOULD SLOWLY ERODE DURING THE DAY.

THIS MORNINGS KTWC UNMODIFIED SOUNDING INDICATED A PRECIPITABLE
WATER VALUE OF 1.12 INCHES...WITH A LIFTED INDEX OF ZERO AND A CAPE
OF AROUND 40 J/KG. MODIFYING THE SOUNDING USING T=102;TD=41 YIELDS A
LI OF PLUS 1 AND NO APPRECIABLE CAPE. NEEDLESS TO SAY...WE SHOULDN`T
SEE ANY CONVECTION THIS AFTERNOON OR EVENING. WILL LIKELY SEE SOME
ACTIVITY AGAIN TODAY SOUTH OF THE BORDER. THAT SAID...I WILL TRIM
BACK POPS FOR THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...BUT WILL KEEP A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS RIGHT ALONG THE INTERNATIONAL
BORDER FROM NOGALES TO DOUGLAS...AND ALSO OVER THE EASTERN MOST
MOUNTAINS.

AS OF 15Z (8 AM MST)...TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE REGION RANGED FROM
THE MID 70S TO THE MID 80S...WITH THE TUCSON INTL AIRPORT REPORTING
A TEMP OF 84 DEGS AFTER A MORNING LOW OF 81 DEGS. THESE READINGS
SEEM TO BE ON TRACK WITH EXPECTED AFTERNOON HIGH TEMPERATURES...BUT
WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR. WILL MAKE SOME MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO THE
SHORT TERM HOURLY TEMPERATURE GRIDS TO REFLECT THE LATEST TEMP
TRENDS.

FOR DETAILS REGARDING THE FORECAST BEYOND TODAY...PLEASE REFER TO
THE PREVIOUS DISCUSSION BELOW.

&&

.AVIATION...THERE WILL BE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF -TSRA/-SHRA IN THE
WHITE MOUNTAINS NE OF KSAD...AND SOUTH/SOUTHEAST OF KTUS IN THE
VICINITY OF THE KOLS/KDUG TERMINALS. BRIEF WIND GUSTS TO NEAR 35 KTS
MAY OCCUR WITH THIS ACTIVITY. OTHERWISE...CLOUD DECKS FROM KTUS
EWD/SWD WILL MOSTLY BE ABOVE 10K FT AGL OUTSIDE OF TSRA. MOSTLY
CLEAR SKIES ARE EXPECTED WEST OF KTUS. BREEZY SURFACE WIND IN THE
GILA RIVER VALLEY IN THE VICINITY OF KSAD...WITH WLY/NWLY SURFACE
WIND AT 12-17 KTS THIS AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING. OTHERWISE...SURFACE
WIND OUTSIDE OF ANY TSRA OUTFLOW INFLUENCES WILL GENERALLY BE 12 KTS
OR LESS. AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR TAF AMENDMENTS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...THERE WILL BE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS TODAY
AND TUESDAY MAINLY NEAR THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER FROM NOGALES TO
DOUGLAS AND IN THE EASTERN MOUNTAINS ALONG THE NEW MEXICO BORDER.
STRENGTHENING HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WILL RESULT IN HOTTER TEMPERATURES
TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY. THEREAFTER...INCREASED THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY SHOULD OCCUR STARTING ON WEDNESDAY AND CONTINUING INTO NEXT
WEEKEND. BREEZY WINDS ARE EXPECTED ONCE AGAIN TODAY IN THE UPPER
GILA RIVER VALLEY AROUND SAFFORD.

&&

.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...DEEP MOISTURE NEEDED TO SUPPORT THUNDERSTORMS
WILL BE RATHER LIMITED THE NEXT FEW DAYS. THIS LACK OF MOISTURE
COMBINED WITH THE STRENGTHENING OF HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WILL RESULT
IN RECORD OR NEAR RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES AROUND WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY. THE CURRENT FORECAST STILL CALLS FOR HIGH TEMPERATURES TO
BE ABOUT 5 DEGREES WARMER THAN MOS GUIDANCE. THIS PROJECTION LOOKED
REASONABLE BASED ON FORECAST THICKNESS VALUES WHICH TEND TO
CORRELATE WELL WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES. THE ONLY QUESTION WILL BE THE
AMOUNT OF MOISTURE WHICH WILL BE ON THE INCREASE AS THE UPPER HIGH
BUILDS AND BECOMES CENTERED AROUND EAST-CENTRAL ARIZONA. AT ANY
RATE...THE EXCESSIVE HEAT IN COMBINATION WITH A MORE FAVORABLE FLOW
PATTERN FOR THUNDERSTORMS WILL BRING ELEVATED RAIN CHANCES BY THE
END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

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