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000
FXUS65 KTWC 040415
AFDTWC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ
915 PM MST TUE MAR 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS..ANOTHER WEATHER SYSTEM WILL MOVE ALONG OR JUST SOUTH OF
THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY AND BRING ANOTHER
CHANCE OF VALLEY RAIN AND MOUNTAIN SNOW...MAINLY NEAR THE
INTERNATIONAL BORDER. DRY CONDITIONS AREA WIDE AND WARMER
TEMPERATURES STARTING THURSDAY INTO THE WEEKEND.

&&

.DISCUSSION...SKIES ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN ARIZONA WERE MOSTLY CLEAR TO
PARTLY CLOUDY AS OF 04/04Z. ALMOST ZERO ACTIVITY SHOWING UP ON KEMX
RADAR AT THIS TIME AFTER A FEW WEAK SHOWERS WERE NOTED OVER EXTREME
WRN PIMA COUNTY AND EAST OF THE CHIRICAHUAS EARLIER THIS EVENING.
AREA TEMPS WERE GENERALLY IN THE 40S AND 50S WITH COOLER
TEMPERATURES IN THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS. EXPECT TO SEE SOME INCREASING
CLOUDS...ESPECIALLY NEAR THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER...LATER TONIGHT
AND INTO TOMORROW MORNING AS THE UPPER LOW LOCATED TO OUR SOUTHWEST
SPINS ITS WAY TOWARD THE EAST. THAT SAID...HAVE STILL OPTED TO
REDUCE POPS/QPFS A BIT THROUGH 04/18Z AS PER LATEST MODEL SOLUTIONS
AND SATELLITE TRENDS. HOWEVER...STILL BELIEVE THAT BEST CHANCES OF
PRECIP WILL BE NEAR THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER AND THE SKY ISLANDS
TOMORROW AFTERNOON. HAVE REMOVED MENTION OF THUNDER THROUGH
04/18Z...BUT DO THINK A RUMBLE OF THUNDER POSSIBLE TOMORROW
AFTERNOON AS SOME LIGHTNING STRIKES HAVE BEEN NOTED NEAR AND EAST OF
THE LOWS CENTER OF CIRCULATION OVER THE LAST 12-24 HRS. THE REST OF
THE FORECAST IS LOOKING GOOD SO NO MORE UPDATES ARE PLANNED. PLEASE
SEE THE PREVIOUS DISCUSSION BELOW FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION.

&&

.AVIATION...VALID THRU 05/06Z.
VFR CONDITIONS WILL GENERALLY BE THE RULE THRU WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.
HOWEVER...THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF -SHRA AND HIGHER TERRAIN -SHSN
TONIGHT MAINLY SOUTH AND WEST OF KTUS. A SLIGHT CHANCE OF -SHRA AND
HIGHER TERRAIN -SHSN EXISTS MAINLY EAST AND SOUTH OF KTUS WEDNESDAY.
ENOUGH INSTABILITY WILL PROVIDE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF -TSRA WEDNESDAY.
OTHERWISE...CLOUD BASES WILL MAINLY RANGE FROM 3-7K FT AGL. SURFACE
WIND WILL DIMINISH TO LESS THAN 10 KTS FOR MOST SECTIONS EARLY THIS
EVENING AND CONTINUE INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING. SURFACE WIND WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON WILL BE WLY/NWLY AT 10-20 KTS. THE STRONGEST WIND
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON WILL BE NEAR KSAD WITH GUSTS OF 25-30 KTS
POSSIBLE. AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR TAF AMENDMENTS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS SONORA
MEXICO LATE TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
SHOWERS MAINLY SOUTH AND WEST OF TUCSON TONIGHT. A CHANCE OF SHOWERS
EXISTS WEDNESDAY MAINLY SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST OF TUCSON...AND ACROSS
THE WHITE MOUNTAINS. A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS ALSO EXISTS
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON FROM TUCSON EAST AND SOUTH TO THE NEW
MEXICO/INTERNATIONAL BORDERS. A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS CONTINUES
WEDNESDAY EVENING ACROSS FAR SOUTHERN AND EASTERN COCHISE COUNTY.
DRY CONDITIONS WILL THEN PREVAIL LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK. 20-FOOT WINDS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON WILL BE MAINLY WEST TO
NORTHWEST AT 5 TO 15 MPH. HOWEVER...20-FOOT WIND GUSTS OF 20-25 MPH
MAY OCCUR ACROSS THE UPPER GILA VALLEY INCLUDING SAFFORD.
THEREAFTER...20-FOOT WINDS THURSDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK WILL
GENERALLY BE EAST AT 5-15 MPH.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...UPPER LOW HAS STOPPED DIGGING S AND HAS STARTED
TO MOVE TO THE E. AS THIS SYSTEM MOVES E ACROSS NRN BAJA TONIGHT AND
THEN NORTHERN SONORA WEDNESDAY IT WILL PHASE WITH A TROF DROPPING S
FROM THE GREAT BASIN. BEST MOISTURE FIELDS ARE FORECAST TO BE ALONG
THE SOUTHERN AREAS NEAR THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER LATER TONIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY. HIGH END CHANCE POPS ACROSS SANTA CRUZ AND SRN COCHISE
COUNTIES STARTING LATER TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY BUT THAT STILL MAY
NOT BE HIGH ENOUGH. TOTAL QPF IN THIS AREA IS FORECAST TO BE IN THE
0.15"-0.40" RANGE...HIGHER IN THE HUACHUCA AND CHIRICAHUA
MOUNTAINS...WITH SNOW AMOUNT IN THESE RANGES ABOVE 6500 FEET OF
1-4". ADDED SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS FOR WEDNESDAY ASSOCIATED
WITH COLD POOL MOVING THRU.

TROF AXIS MOVES THRU WEDNESDAY NIGHT...BUT A PIECE WILL BE LEFT
BEHIND AND COMBINED WITH ANOTHER PIECE OF ENERGY DROPPING IN FROM
THE N...A WEAK UPPER LEVEL TROF WILL EXIST OVER THE AREA THURSDAY
INTO FRIDAY. MODELS THEN DIVERGE ON HOW LONG THIS GENERALLY DRY TROF
WILL HANG AROUND THE AREA. IF IT HANGS AROUND LONG ENOUGH MAY HAVE
TIME TO DRAW IN SOME MOISTURE FROM THE S ACROSS THE ERN ZONES.
SOMETHING TO WATCH. OTHERWISE DRY FORECAST THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK
WITH A WARMING TREND.

&&

.TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...YOUTUBE...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/TUCSON








000
FXUS65 KTWC 040415
AFDTWC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ
915 PM MST TUE MAR 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS..ANOTHER WEATHER SYSTEM WILL MOVE ALONG OR JUST SOUTH OF
THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY AND BRING ANOTHER
CHANCE OF VALLEY RAIN AND MOUNTAIN SNOW...MAINLY NEAR THE
INTERNATIONAL BORDER. DRY CONDITIONS AREA WIDE AND WARMER
TEMPERATURES STARTING THURSDAY INTO THE WEEKEND.

&&

.DISCUSSION...SKIES ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN ARIZONA WERE MOSTLY CLEAR TO
PARTLY CLOUDY AS OF 04/04Z. ALMOST ZERO ACTIVITY SHOWING UP ON KEMX
RADAR AT THIS TIME AFTER A FEW WEAK SHOWERS WERE NOTED OVER EXTREME
WRN PIMA COUNTY AND EAST OF THE CHIRICAHUAS EARLIER THIS EVENING.
AREA TEMPS WERE GENERALLY IN THE 40S AND 50S WITH COOLER
TEMPERATURES IN THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS. EXPECT TO SEE SOME INCREASING
CLOUDS...ESPECIALLY NEAR THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER...LATER TONIGHT
AND INTO TOMORROW MORNING AS THE UPPER LOW LOCATED TO OUR SOUTHWEST
SPINS ITS WAY TOWARD THE EAST. THAT SAID...HAVE STILL OPTED TO
REDUCE POPS/QPFS A BIT THROUGH 04/18Z AS PER LATEST MODEL SOLUTIONS
AND SATELLITE TRENDS. HOWEVER...STILL BELIEVE THAT BEST CHANCES OF
PRECIP WILL BE NEAR THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER AND THE SKY ISLANDS
TOMORROW AFTERNOON. HAVE REMOVED MENTION OF THUNDER THROUGH
04/18Z...BUT DO THINK A RUMBLE OF THUNDER POSSIBLE TOMORROW
AFTERNOON AS SOME LIGHTNING STRIKES HAVE BEEN NOTED NEAR AND EAST OF
THE LOWS CENTER OF CIRCULATION OVER THE LAST 12-24 HRS. THE REST OF
THE FORECAST IS LOOKING GOOD SO NO MORE UPDATES ARE PLANNED. PLEASE
SEE THE PREVIOUS DISCUSSION BELOW FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION.

&&

.AVIATION...VALID THRU 05/06Z.
VFR CONDITIONS WILL GENERALLY BE THE RULE THRU WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.
HOWEVER...THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF -SHRA AND HIGHER TERRAIN -SHSN
TONIGHT MAINLY SOUTH AND WEST OF KTUS. A SLIGHT CHANCE OF -SHRA AND
HIGHER TERRAIN -SHSN EXISTS MAINLY EAST AND SOUTH OF KTUS WEDNESDAY.
ENOUGH INSTABILITY WILL PROVIDE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF -TSRA WEDNESDAY.
OTHERWISE...CLOUD BASES WILL MAINLY RANGE FROM 3-7K FT AGL. SURFACE
WIND WILL DIMINISH TO LESS THAN 10 KTS FOR MOST SECTIONS EARLY THIS
EVENING AND CONTINUE INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING. SURFACE WIND WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON WILL BE WLY/NWLY AT 10-20 KTS. THE STRONGEST WIND
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON WILL BE NEAR KSAD WITH GUSTS OF 25-30 KTS
POSSIBLE. AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR TAF AMENDMENTS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS SONORA
MEXICO LATE TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
SHOWERS MAINLY SOUTH AND WEST OF TUCSON TONIGHT. A CHANCE OF SHOWERS
EXISTS WEDNESDAY MAINLY SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST OF TUCSON...AND ACROSS
THE WHITE MOUNTAINS. A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS ALSO EXISTS
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON FROM TUCSON EAST AND SOUTH TO THE NEW
MEXICO/INTERNATIONAL BORDERS. A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS CONTINUES
WEDNESDAY EVENING ACROSS FAR SOUTHERN AND EASTERN COCHISE COUNTY.
DRY CONDITIONS WILL THEN PREVAIL LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK. 20-FOOT WINDS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON WILL BE MAINLY WEST TO
NORTHWEST AT 5 TO 15 MPH. HOWEVER...20-FOOT WIND GUSTS OF 20-25 MPH
MAY OCCUR ACROSS THE UPPER GILA VALLEY INCLUDING SAFFORD.
THEREAFTER...20-FOOT WINDS THURSDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK WILL
GENERALLY BE EAST AT 5-15 MPH.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...UPPER LOW HAS STOPPED DIGGING S AND HAS STARTED
TO MOVE TO THE E. AS THIS SYSTEM MOVES E ACROSS NRN BAJA TONIGHT AND
THEN NORTHERN SONORA WEDNESDAY IT WILL PHASE WITH A TROF DROPPING S
FROM THE GREAT BASIN. BEST MOISTURE FIELDS ARE FORECAST TO BE ALONG
THE SOUTHERN AREAS NEAR THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER LATER TONIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY. HIGH END CHANCE POPS ACROSS SANTA CRUZ AND SRN COCHISE
COUNTIES STARTING LATER TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY BUT THAT STILL MAY
NOT BE HIGH ENOUGH. TOTAL QPF IN THIS AREA IS FORECAST TO BE IN THE
0.15"-0.40" RANGE...HIGHER IN THE HUACHUCA AND CHIRICAHUA
MOUNTAINS...WITH SNOW AMOUNT IN THESE RANGES ABOVE 6500 FEET OF
1-4". ADDED SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS FOR WEDNESDAY ASSOCIATED
WITH COLD POOL MOVING THRU.

TROF AXIS MOVES THRU WEDNESDAY NIGHT...BUT A PIECE WILL BE LEFT
BEHIND AND COMBINED WITH ANOTHER PIECE OF ENERGY DROPPING IN FROM
THE N...A WEAK UPPER LEVEL TROF WILL EXIST OVER THE AREA THURSDAY
INTO FRIDAY. MODELS THEN DIVERGE ON HOW LONG THIS GENERALLY DRY TROF
WILL HANG AROUND THE AREA. IF IT HANGS AROUND LONG ENOUGH MAY HAVE
TIME TO DRAW IN SOME MOISTURE FROM THE S ACROSS THE ERN ZONES.
SOMETHING TO WATCH. OTHERWISE DRY FORECAST THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK
WITH A WARMING TREND.

&&

.TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...YOUTUBE...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/TUCSON








000
FXUS65 KTWC 040415
AFDTWC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ
915 PM MST TUE MAR 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS..ANOTHER WEATHER SYSTEM WILL MOVE ALONG OR JUST SOUTH OF
THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY AND BRING ANOTHER
CHANCE OF VALLEY RAIN AND MOUNTAIN SNOW...MAINLY NEAR THE
INTERNATIONAL BORDER. DRY CONDITIONS AREA WIDE AND WARMER
TEMPERATURES STARTING THURSDAY INTO THE WEEKEND.

&&

.DISCUSSION...SKIES ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN ARIZONA WERE MOSTLY CLEAR TO
PARTLY CLOUDY AS OF 04/04Z. ALMOST ZERO ACTIVITY SHOWING UP ON KEMX
RADAR AT THIS TIME AFTER A FEW WEAK SHOWERS WERE NOTED OVER EXTREME
WRN PIMA COUNTY AND EAST OF THE CHIRICAHUAS EARLIER THIS EVENING.
AREA TEMPS WERE GENERALLY IN THE 40S AND 50S WITH COOLER
TEMPERATURES IN THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS. EXPECT TO SEE SOME INCREASING
CLOUDS...ESPECIALLY NEAR THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER...LATER TONIGHT
AND INTO TOMORROW MORNING AS THE UPPER LOW LOCATED TO OUR SOUTHWEST
SPINS ITS WAY TOWARD THE EAST. THAT SAID...HAVE STILL OPTED TO
REDUCE POPS/QPFS A BIT THROUGH 04/18Z AS PER LATEST MODEL SOLUTIONS
AND SATELLITE TRENDS. HOWEVER...STILL BELIEVE THAT BEST CHANCES OF
PRECIP WILL BE NEAR THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER AND THE SKY ISLANDS
TOMORROW AFTERNOON. HAVE REMOVED MENTION OF THUNDER THROUGH
04/18Z...BUT DO THINK A RUMBLE OF THUNDER POSSIBLE TOMORROW
AFTERNOON AS SOME LIGHTNING STRIKES HAVE BEEN NOTED NEAR AND EAST OF
THE LOWS CENTER OF CIRCULATION OVER THE LAST 12-24 HRS. THE REST OF
THE FORECAST IS LOOKING GOOD SO NO MORE UPDATES ARE PLANNED. PLEASE
SEE THE PREVIOUS DISCUSSION BELOW FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION.

&&

.AVIATION...VALID THRU 05/06Z.
VFR CONDITIONS WILL GENERALLY BE THE RULE THRU WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.
HOWEVER...THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF -SHRA AND HIGHER TERRAIN -SHSN
TONIGHT MAINLY SOUTH AND WEST OF KTUS. A SLIGHT CHANCE OF -SHRA AND
HIGHER TERRAIN -SHSN EXISTS MAINLY EAST AND SOUTH OF KTUS WEDNESDAY.
ENOUGH INSTABILITY WILL PROVIDE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF -TSRA WEDNESDAY.
OTHERWISE...CLOUD BASES WILL MAINLY RANGE FROM 3-7K FT AGL. SURFACE
WIND WILL DIMINISH TO LESS THAN 10 KTS FOR MOST SECTIONS EARLY THIS
EVENING AND CONTINUE INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING. SURFACE WIND WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON WILL BE WLY/NWLY AT 10-20 KTS. THE STRONGEST WIND
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON WILL BE NEAR KSAD WITH GUSTS OF 25-30 KTS
POSSIBLE. AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR TAF AMENDMENTS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS SONORA
MEXICO LATE TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
SHOWERS MAINLY SOUTH AND WEST OF TUCSON TONIGHT. A CHANCE OF SHOWERS
EXISTS WEDNESDAY MAINLY SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST OF TUCSON...AND ACROSS
THE WHITE MOUNTAINS. A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS ALSO EXISTS
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON FROM TUCSON EAST AND SOUTH TO THE NEW
MEXICO/INTERNATIONAL BORDERS. A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS CONTINUES
WEDNESDAY EVENING ACROSS FAR SOUTHERN AND EASTERN COCHISE COUNTY.
DRY CONDITIONS WILL THEN PREVAIL LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK. 20-FOOT WINDS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON WILL BE MAINLY WEST TO
NORTHWEST AT 5 TO 15 MPH. HOWEVER...20-FOOT WIND GUSTS OF 20-25 MPH
MAY OCCUR ACROSS THE UPPER GILA VALLEY INCLUDING SAFFORD.
THEREAFTER...20-FOOT WINDS THURSDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK WILL
GENERALLY BE EAST AT 5-15 MPH.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...UPPER LOW HAS STOPPED DIGGING S AND HAS STARTED
TO MOVE TO THE E. AS THIS SYSTEM MOVES E ACROSS NRN BAJA TONIGHT AND
THEN NORTHERN SONORA WEDNESDAY IT WILL PHASE WITH A TROF DROPPING S
FROM THE GREAT BASIN. BEST MOISTURE FIELDS ARE FORECAST TO BE ALONG
THE SOUTHERN AREAS NEAR THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER LATER TONIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY. HIGH END CHANCE POPS ACROSS SANTA CRUZ AND SRN COCHISE
COUNTIES STARTING LATER TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY BUT THAT STILL MAY
NOT BE HIGH ENOUGH. TOTAL QPF IN THIS AREA IS FORECAST TO BE IN THE
0.15"-0.40" RANGE...HIGHER IN THE HUACHUCA AND CHIRICAHUA
MOUNTAINS...WITH SNOW AMOUNT IN THESE RANGES ABOVE 6500 FEET OF
1-4". ADDED SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS FOR WEDNESDAY ASSOCIATED
WITH COLD POOL MOVING THRU.

TROF AXIS MOVES THRU WEDNESDAY NIGHT...BUT A PIECE WILL BE LEFT
BEHIND AND COMBINED WITH ANOTHER PIECE OF ENERGY DROPPING IN FROM
THE N...A WEAK UPPER LEVEL TROF WILL EXIST OVER THE AREA THURSDAY
INTO FRIDAY. MODELS THEN DIVERGE ON HOW LONG THIS GENERALLY DRY TROF
WILL HANG AROUND THE AREA. IF IT HANGS AROUND LONG ENOUGH MAY HAVE
TIME TO DRAW IN SOME MOISTURE FROM THE S ACROSS THE ERN ZONES.
SOMETHING TO WATCH. OTHERWISE DRY FORECAST THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK
WITH A WARMING TREND.

&&

.TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...YOUTUBE...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/TUCSON








000
FXUS65 KTWC 040415
AFDTWC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ
915 PM MST TUE MAR 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS..ANOTHER WEATHER SYSTEM WILL MOVE ALONG OR JUST SOUTH OF
THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY AND BRING ANOTHER
CHANCE OF VALLEY RAIN AND MOUNTAIN SNOW...MAINLY NEAR THE
INTERNATIONAL BORDER. DRY CONDITIONS AREA WIDE AND WARMER
TEMPERATURES STARTING THURSDAY INTO THE WEEKEND.

&&

.DISCUSSION...SKIES ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN ARIZONA WERE MOSTLY CLEAR TO
PARTLY CLOUDY AS OF 04/04Z. ALMOST ZERO ACTIVITY SHOWING UP ON KEMX
RADAR AT THIS TIME AFTER A FEW WEAK SHOWERS WERE NOTED OVER EXTREME
WRN PIMA COUNTY AND EAST OF THE CHIRICAHUAS EARLIER THIS EVENING.
AREA TEMPS WERE GENERALLY IN THE 40S AND 50S WITH COOLER
TEMPERATURES IN THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS. EXPECT TO SEE SOME INCREASING
CLOUDS...ESPECIALLY NEAR THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER...LATER TONIGHT
AND INTO TOMORROW MORNING AS THE UPPER LOW LOCATED TO OUR SOUTHWEST
SPINS ITS WAY TOWARD THE EAST. THAT SAID...HAVE STILL OPTED TO
REDUCE POPS/QPFS A BIT THROUGH 04/18Z AS PER LATEST MODEL SOLUTIONS
AND SATELLITE TRENDS. HOWEVER...STILL BELIEVE THAT BEST CHANCES OF
PRECIP WILL BE NEAR THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER AND THE SKY ISLANDS
TOMORROW AFTERNOON. HAVE REMOVED MENTION OF THUNDER THROUGH
04/18Z...BUT DO THINK A RUMBLE OF THUNDER POSSIBLE TOMORROW
AFTERNOON AS SOME LIGHTNING STRIKES HAVE BEEN NOTED NEAR AND EAST OF
THE LOWS CENTER OF CIRCULATION OVER THE LAST 12-24 HRS. THE REST OF
THE FORECAST IS LOOKING GOOD SO NO MORE UPDATES ARE PLANNED. PLEASE
SEE THE PREVIOUS DISCUSSION BELOW FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION.

&&

.AVIATION...VALID THRU 05/06Z.
VFR CONDITIONS WILL GENERALLY BE THE RULE THRU WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.
HOWEVER...THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF -SHRA AND HIGHER TERRAIN -SHSN
TONIGHT MAINLY SOUTH AND WEST OF KTUS. A SLIGHT CHANCE OF -SHRA AND
HIGHER TERRAIN -SHSN EXISTS MAINLY EAST AND SOUTH OF KTUS WEDNESDAY.
ENOUGH INSTABILITY WILL PROVIDE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF -TSRA WEDNESDAY.
OTHERWISE...CLOUD BASES WILL MAINLY RANGE FROM 3-7K FT AGL. SURFACE
WIND WILL DIMINISH TO LESS THAN 10 KTS FOR MOST SECTIONS EARLY THIS
EVENING AND CONTINUE INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING. SURFACE WIND WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON WILL BE WLY/NWLY AT 10-20 KTS. THE STRONGEST WIND
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON WILL BE NEAR KSAD WITH GUSTS OF 25-30 KTS
POSSIBLE. AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR TAF AMENDMENTS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS SONORA
MEXICO LATE TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
SHOWERS MAINLY SOUTH AND WEST OF TUCSON TONIGHT. A CHANCE OF SHOWERS
EXISTS WEDNESDAY MAINLY SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST OF TUCSON...AND ACROSS
THE WHITE MOUNTAINS. A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS ALSO EXISTS
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON FROM TUCSON EAST AND SOUTH TO THE NEW
MEXICO/INTERNATIONAL BORDERS. A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS CONTINUES
WEDNESDAY EVENING ACROSS FAR SOUTHERN AND EASTERN COCHISE COUNTY.
DRY CONDITIONS WILL THEN PREVAIL LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK. 20-FOOT WINDS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON WILL BE MAINLY WEST TO
NORTHWEST AT 5 TO 15 MPH. HOWEVER...20-FOOT WIND GUSTS OF 20-25 MPH
MAY OCCUR ACROSS THE UPPER GILA VALLEY INCLUDING SAFFORD.
THEREAFTER...20-FOOT WINDS THURSDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK WILL
GENERALLY BE EAST AT 5-15 MPH.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...UPPER LOW HAS STOPPED DIGGING S AND HAS STARTED
TO MOVE TO THE E. AS THIS SYSTEM MOVES E ACROSS NRN BAJA TONIGHT AND
THEN NORTHERN SONORA WEDNESDAY IT WILL PHASE WITH A TROF DROPPING S
FROM THE GREAT BASIN. BEST MOISTURE FIELDS ARE FORECAST TO BE ALONG
THE SOUTHERN AREAS NEAR THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER LATER TONIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY. HIGH END CHANCE POPS ACROSS SANTA CRUZ AND SRN COCHISE
COUNTIES STARTING LATER TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY BUT THAT STILL MAY
NOT BE HIGH ENOUGH. TOTAL QPF IN THIS AREA IS FORECAST TO BE IN THE
0.15"-0.40" RANGE...HIGHER IN THE HUACHUCA AND CHIRICAHUA
MOUNTAINS...WITH SNOW AMOUNT IN THESE RANGES ABOVE 6500 FEET OF
1-4". ADDED SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS FOR WEDNESDAY ASSOCIATED
WITH COLD POOL MOVING THRU.

TROF AXIS MOVES THRU WEDNESDAY NIGHT...BUT A PIECE WILL BE LEFT
BEHIND AND COMBINED WITH ANOTHER PIECE OF ENERGY DROPPING IN FROM
THE N...A WEAK UPPER LEVEL TROF WILL EXIST OVER THE AREA THURSDAY
INTO FRIDAY. MODELS THEN DIVERGE ON HOW LONG THIS GENERALLY DRY TROF
WILL HANG AROUND THE AREA. IF IT HANGS AROUND LONG ENOUGH MAY HAVE
TIME TO DRAW IN SOME MOISTURE FROM THE S ACROSS THE ERN ZONES.
SOMETHING TO WATCH. OTHERWISE DRY FORECAST THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK
WITH A WARMING TREND.

&&

.TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...YOUTUBE...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/TUCSON







  [top]

000
FXUS65 KFGZ 040358
AFDFGZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ
855 PM MST TUE MAR 03 2015

.SYNOPSIS...A WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE ACROSS ARIZONA
OVERNIGHT...BRINGING SCATTERED RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS TO THE AREA
THROUGH EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING. EXPECT DRIER AND SUNNY CONDITIONS
BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...ALTHOUGH HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE COLD.
A WARMING TREND WILL RETURN FOR THURSDAY AND CONTINUE THROUGH THE
COMING WEEKEND.

&&

.DISCUSSION...THINGS ARE MUCH QUIETER THAN WHAT WAS ADVERTISED BY
LAST NIGHT AND THIS MORNING MODEL RUNS...THIS DESPITE THE OVERALL
PATTERN NOT REALLY CHANGING.

A WEAK UPPER LEVEL LOW AND TROUGH AXIS NOW MOVING THROUGH SOUTHERN
UTAH AND NORTHWESTERN ARIZONA WILL PASS THROUGH CENTRAL ARIZONA
AFTER MIDNIGHT...AND THROUGH EASTERN ARIZONA THIS AFTERNOON. THERE
IS STILL AMPLE MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY PRESENT AHEAD OF THE TROUGH
AXIS...YET CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY NEVER REALLY GOT GOING TODAY. OUR
GUESS IS THAT THE RAIN AND SNOW COOLED BOUNDARY LAYER AND SOME WEAK
MID-LEVEL CONVERGENCE WAS A BIT MUCH TO OVERCOME. THIS WILL STILL BE
THE PROBLEM TONIGHT AS THE BOUNDARY LAYER COOLS AND THERE IS JUST
NOT ENOUGH LIFT. THE TROUGH AXIS ITSELF MAY PROVIDE A FEW HOURS OF
LIGHT PRECIPITATION AS IT MOVES FROM FROM NW TO SE...BUT IF THE NEXT
FEW HOURS SHOW MORE DRYING...WE WILL DROP MOST OF THE POPS.

THE REST OF THE FORECAST PERIOD FEATURES DRYING AND WARMING AS THIS
WINTERS DOMINANT WEST COAST RIDGE RETURNS.

&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 06Z PACKAGE...EXPECT MAINLY SKC OR SCT LOW AND
MID LEVEL CONVECTIVE CLOUDS THROUGH 15Z-17Z WEDNESDAY. ISOLD TO SCT
-SHRA AND -SHSN ARE POSSIBLE ON THE SAME PERIOD...WITH ANY HEAVIER
SHOWERS PRODUCING BRIEF MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS. ALL AREAS VFR AFT 18Z
WEDNESDAY. AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR TAF AMENDMENTS.

&&

.FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC.........PETERSON
AVIATION.......PETERSON

FOR NORTHERN ARIZONA WEATHER INFORMATION VISIT
WEATHER.GOV/FLAGSTAFF



  [top]

000
FXUS65 KPSR 040309
AFDPSR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PHOENIX AZ
805 PM MST TUE MAR 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A COUPLE OF MINOR WEATHER DISTURBANCES FROM THE NORTH WILL CONTINUE
TO KEEP AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES BELOW NORMAL THROUGH THURSDAY...
ALONG WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS IN EASTERN ARIZONA. DRIER AND
WARMER WEATHER WILL RETURN FRIDAY AND THE WEEKEND...WITH LOWER
DESERT TEMPERATURES WARMING INTO THE LOW TO MID 80S SATURDAY AND
SUNDAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
A COUPLE OF MINOR WEATHER DISTURBANCES...UNDER NORTHERLY FLOW
ALOFT...ARE FORECAST TO MOVE INTO AZ...ONE TONIGHT/EARLY WEDNESDAY
AND A DRIER ONE THURSDAY. MODELS FORECAST SOME MID LEVEL CLOUDINESS
TO MOVE THROUGH CENTRAL AZ TONIGHT/EARLY WEDNESDAY FOR A VERY SLIGHT
CHANCE OF A SHOWER. PRECIP PROBABILITIES ARE 10 PERCENT IN SOUTH
CENTRAL AZ FOR TONIGHT. THE SECOND DISTURBANCE THURSDAY WILL COME
THROUGH DRY WITH SURFACE DEWPOINTS EXPECTED TO BE SUBSTANTIALLY
LOWER.

THE ONLY WEATHER PROBLEM WE SEE FOR WEDNESDAY ARE GUSTY NORTH WINDS
ALONG COLORADO RIVER...GUSTING TO 30 MPH AT TIMES THROUGHOUT THE
DAY. THIS COVERED IN FORECASTS.

A FEW ADJUSTMENTS TO THE FORECAST WERE MADE EARLIER...WITH SOME WIND
INCREASES ALONG THE COLORADO RIVER FOR WED...AND A DOWNGRADE IN
PRECIP POPS FOR THE REMAINDER OF THIS EVENING. NO ADDITIONAL
FORECAST UPDATES ARE PLANNED.


.PORTIONS OF PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...120 PM MST...

UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE TROF OVER THE DESERT SOUTHWEST...EXTENDING
SOUTHWESTWARD TO A POSITION JUST OFF THE CENTRAL BAJA CA COAST...
CONTINUED TO COVER THE REGION. LINGERING BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE...
WITH SURFACE DEWPOINTS ACROSS THE CENTRAL DESERTS IN THE 40S...
COMBINED WITH COOL AIR ALOFT WILL CONTINUE TO RESULT IN A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF SHOWERS OVERNIGHT IN SOUTH CENTRAL AZ.

BY WEDNESDAY MORNING THE TROF AXIS IS FORECAST TO MOVE EAST OF THE
GREATER PHOENIX AREA ALLOWING FOR A DRIER AND MORE SUBSIDENT
NLY/NWLY FLOW ALOFT TO OVERSPREAD THE CENTRAL DESERTS AND CONFINE
ANY THREAT FOR SHOWERS OR STORMS TO THE HIGHER TERRAIN AREAS EAST OF
PHOENIX. WITH BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE REMAINING ELEVATED WEDNESDAY
MORNING...AND SIGNIFICANT CLEARING EXPECTED BY SUNRISE...THERE WILL
AGAIN BE THE POTENTIAL FOR FOG DEVELOPMENT. WE EXPECT LESS AREAL
COVERAGE OF THE FOG AND IT SHOULD NOT BE AS DENSE AS WHAT OCCURRED
THIS MORNING...BUT WE WILL MENTION PATCHY FOG FOR WED MORNING FROM
MARICOPA COUNTY EASTWARD. BY AFTERNOON WED WE SHOULD SOME FAIR
WEATHER CU OVER THE CENTRAL DESERTS...WITH SKIES MOSTLY SUNNY FROM
PHOENIX WESTWARD. WE WILL CALL FOR A SLIGHT CHANCE OF LINGERING
SHOWERS ACROSS ZONE 24 WITH THE THREAT ENDING BY EARLY EVENING
WEDNESDAY. HIGH TEMPS WILL CLIMB A FEW DEGREES AS THE AIRMASS WARMS
UP A BIT...BUT READINGS WILL REMAIN BELOW SEASONAL NORMALS.

THURSDAY...
A DRYING AND SUBSIDENT NORTHERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL SET UP ACROSS THE
AREA AS HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT STARTS TO BUILD ALONG THE CA COAST. THIS
WILL LEAD TO SUNNY SKIES...AND CONTINUED WARMING WITH HIGH TEMPS
REACHING INTO THE LOW TO MID 70S...AND TOWARDS SEASONAL NORMALS.

FRIDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...
A WARMING TREND IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THIS PERIOD UNDER
MAINLY CLEAR SKIES AS HIGH PRESSURE STRENGTHENS OVER THE
REGION...WITH A GOOD CHANCE FOR HIGHS NEAR 80 ACROSS THE LOWER
DESERTS BY THE WEEKEND...AND EVEN INTO THE MID 80S BY NEXT TUESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...
SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA INCLUDING KPHX...KIWA AND KSDL...
THROUGH 19Z WED...SCT-BKN CLDS BASED NEAR 9 THSD AGL. LIGHT WIND
UNDER 7 KNOTS.

SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA AND SOUTHWEST ARIZONA INCLUDING KIPL AND KBLH...
THROUGH 13Z WED...CLEAR SKIES. LIGHT WIND UNDER 7 KNOTS. FROM 13Z
WED TO 23Z WED...CLEAR SKIES. INCREASING NORTH WIND 10 TO 20 KNOTS...
BUT GUSTING TO NEAR 28 KNOTS ALONG THE COLORADO RIVER.

AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDED TAFS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY...
STRONG HIGH PRESSURE WILL PROVIDE SEASONABLY WARM AND DRY CONDITIONS
TO THE DISTRICT DURING THE END OF OF THIS WEEK INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
WITH TEMPERATURES SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL...AFTERNOON HUMIDITY LEVELS
WILL REGULARLY FALL INTO A 15 TO 25 PERCENT RANGE WITH GOOD
OVERNIGHT RECOVERY. WINDS WILL FAVOR A NORTH TO NORTHEAST TRAJECTORY
THROUGH THE PERIOD...WITH SOME OCCASIONAL GUSTINESS OVER RIDGE TOPS
BUT ALL IN ALL VERY TYPICAL SPEEDS. OVERALL...FIRE DANGER WILL BE
LIMITED DURING THIS TIME FRAME.

&&

.PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

AZ...NONE.

CA...NONE.

&&

$$

VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/PHOENIX

DISCUSSION...VASQUEZ/CB/PERCHA
AVIATION...VASQUEZ
FIRE WEATHER...MO





















000
FXUS65 KPSR 040309
AFDPSR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PHOENIX AZ
805 PM MST TUE MAR 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A COUPLE OF MINOR WEATHER DISTURBANCES FROM THE NORTH WILL CONTINUE
TO KEEP AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES BELOW NORMAL THROUGH THURSDAY...
ALONG WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS IN EASTERN ARIZONA. DRIER AND
WARMER WEATHER WILL RETURN FRIDAY AND THE WEEKEND...WITH LOWER
DESERT TEMPERATURES WARMING INTO THE LOW TO MID 80S SATURDAY AND
SUNDAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
A COUPLE OF MINOR WEATHER DISTURBANCES...UNDER NORTHERLY FLOW
ALOFT...ARE FORECAST TO MOVE INTO AZ...ONE TONIGHT/EARLY WEDNESDAY
AND A DRIER ONE THURSDAY. MODELS FORECAST SOME MID LEVEL CLOUDINESS
TO MOVE THROUGH CENTRAL AZ TONIGHT/EARLY WEDNESDAY FOR A VERY SLIGHT
CHANCE OF A SHOWER. PRECIP PROBABILITIES ARE 10 PERCENT IN SOUTH
CENTRAL AZ FOR TONIGHT. THE SECOND DISTURBANCE THURSDAY WILL COME
THROUGH DRY WITH SURFACE DEWPOINTS EXPECTED TO BE SUBSTANTIALLY
LOWER.

THE ONLY WEATHER PROBLEM WE SEE FOR WEDNESDAY ARE GUSTY NORTH WINDS
ALONG COLORADO RIVER...GUSTING TO 30 MPH AT TIMES THROUGHOUT THE
DAY. THIS COVERED IN FORECASTS.

A FEW ADJUSTMENTS TO THE FORECAST WERE MADE EARLIER...WITH SOME WIND
INCREASES ALONG THE COLORADO RIVER FOR WED...AND A DOWNGRADE IN
PRECIP POPS FOR THE REMAINDER OF THIS EVENING. NO ADDITIONAL
FORECAST UPDATES ARE PLANNED.


.PORTIONS OF PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...120 PM MST...

UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE TROF OVER THE DESERT SOUTHWEST...EXTENDING
SOUTHWESTWARD TO A POSITION JUST OFF THE CENTRAL BAJA CA COAST...
CONTINUED TO COVER THE REGION. LINGERING BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE...
WITH SURFACE DEWPOINTS ACROSS THE CENTRAL DESERTS IN THE 40S...
COMBINED WITH COOL AIR ALOFT WILL CONTINUE TO RESULT IN A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF SHOWERS OVERNIGHT IN SOUTH CENTRAL AZ.

BY WEDNESDAY MORNING THE TROF AXIS IS FORECAST TO MOVE EAST OF THE
GREATER PHOENIX AREA ALLOWING FOR A DRIER AND MORE SUBSIDENT
NLY/NWLY FLOW ALOFT TO OVERSPREAD THE CENTRAL DESERTS AND CONFINE
ANY THREAT FOR SHOWERS OR STORMS TO THE HIGHER TERRAIN AREAS EAST OF
PHOENIX. WITH BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE REMAINING ELEVATED WEDNESDAY
MORNING...AND SIGNIFICANT CLEARING EXPECTED BY SUNRISE...THERE WILL
AGAIN BE THE POTENTIAL FOR FOG DEVELOPMENT. WE EXPECT LESS AREAL
COVERAGE OF THE FOG AND IT SHOULD NOT BE AS DENSE AS WHAT OCCURRED
THIS MORNING...BUT WE WILL MENTION PATCHY FOG FOR WED MORNING FROM
MARICOPA COUNTY EASTWARD. BY AFTERNOON WED WE SHOULD SOME FAIR
WEATHER CU OVER THE CENTRAL DESERTS...WITH SKIES MOSTLY SUNNY FROM
PHOENIX WESTWARD. WE WILL CALL FOR A SLIGHT CHANCE OF LINGERING
SHOWERS ACROSS ZONE 24 WITH THE THREAT ENDING BY EARLY EVENING
WEDNESDAY. HIGH TEMPS WILL CLIMB A FEW DEGREES AS THE AIRMASS WARMS
UP A BIT...BUT READINGS WILL REMAIN BELOW SEASONAL NORMALS.

THURSDAY...
A DRYING AND SUBSIDENT NORTHERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL SET UP ACROSS THE
AREA AS HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT STARTS TO BUILD ALONG THE CA COAST. THIS
WILL LEAD TO SUNNY SKIES...AND CONTINUED WARMING WITH HIGH TEMPS
REACHING INTO THE LOW TO MID 70S...AND TOWARDS SEASONAL NORMALS.

FRIDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...
A WARMING TREND IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THIS PERIOD UNDER
MAINLY CLEAR SKIES AS HIGH PRESSURE STRENGTHENS OVER THE
REGION...WITH A GOOD CHANCE FOR HIGHS NEAR 80 ACROSS THE LOWER
DESERTS BY THE WEEKEND...AND EVEN INTO THE MID 80S BY NEXT TUESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...
SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA INCLUDING KPHX...KIWA AND KSDL...
THROUGH 19Z WED...SCT-BKN CLDS BASED NEAR 9 THSD AGL. LIGHT WIND
UNDER 7 KNOTS.

SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA AND SOUTHWEST ARIZONA INCLUDING KIPL AND KBLH...
THROUGH 13Z WED...CLEAR SKIES. LIGHT WIND UNDER 7 KNOTS. FROM 13Z
WED TO 23Z WED...CLEAR SKIES. INCREASING NORTH WIND 10 TO 20 KNOTS...
BUT GUSTING TO NEAR 28 KNOTS ALONG THE COLORADO RIVER.

AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDED TAFS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY...
STRONG HIGH PRESSURE WILL PROVIDE SEASONABLY WARM AND DRY CONDITIONS
TO THE DISTRICT DURING THE END OF OF THIS WEEK INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
WITH TEMPERATURES SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL...AFTERNOON HUMIDITY LEVELS
WILL REGULARLY FALL INTO A 15 TO 25 PERCENT RANGE WITH GOOD
OVERNIGHT RECOVERY. WINDS WILL FAVOR A NORTH TO NORTHEAST TRAJECTORY
THROUGH THE PERIOD...WITH SOME OCCASIONAL GUSTINESS OVER RIDGE TOPS
BUT ALL IN ALL VERY TYPICAL SPEEDS. OVERALL...FIRE DANGER WILL BE
LIMITED DURING THIS TIME FRAME.

&&

.PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

AZ...NONE.

CA...NONE.

&&

$$

VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/PHOENIX

DISCUSSION...VASQUEZ/CB/PERCHA
AVIATION...VASQUEZ
FIRE WEATHER...MO






















000
FXUS65 KFGZ 032205
AFDFGZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ
230 PM MST TUE MAR 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...ANOTHER WEATHER DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE ACROSS ARIZONA
OVERNIGHT...BRINGING SCATTERED RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS TO NORTHERN
THROUGH EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING. AFTER A COLD BUT DRIER DAY ON
WEDNESDAY...HIGH PRESSURE AND A WARMING TREND WILL RETURN FOR
THURSDAY AND THROUGH THE COMING WEEKEND.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
ONE LAST WEATHER DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE ACROSS ARIZONA OVERNIGHT. THE
CENTER OF THIS NEXT DISTURBANCE WAS LOCATED OVER NORTHWEST ARIZONA
DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS...HEADING EASTWARD. DURING THE AFTERNOON,
AMPLE MOISTURE AND COLD TEMPERATURES ALOFT WERE COMBINING WITH
DAYTIME HEATING TO PRODUCE SCATTERED RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS
THE AREA. THE SCATTERED SHOWER ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE INTO
THE EVENING HOURS...THEN MOSTLY COMING TO AN END AFTER MIDNIGHT AS
THE CENTER OF THE DISTURBANCE HEADS TO THE EAST. THE SNOW LEVEL
ACROSS THE AREA WILL RANGE FROM 4500-5500 FEET. AS FAR AS SNOW
ACCUMULATION, GENERALLY LOOKING AT TRACE TO 2 INCH ACCUMULATIONS
OVERNIGHT.

STARTING WEDNESDAY AND LASTING INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...HIGH PRESSURE
WILL SLOWLY BUILD OVER THE SOUTHWEST UNITED STATES. MOISTURE AND
COLD AIR ALOFT WILL LINGER OVER FAR EASTERN ARIZONA ON WEDNESDAY FOR
A FEW LINGERING DAYTIME INSTABILITY SHOWERS. OTHERWISE, LOOK FOR
DAYTIME HIGH TEMPERATURES TO WARM 3 TO 5 DEGREES EACH DAY. IT WILL
STILL BE CHILLY ON WEDNESDAY BUT OVER THE WEEKEND MILD TEMPERATURES
ARE EXPECTED TO RETURN.

&&

.AVIATION...
FOR THE 00Z PACKAGE...RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS
NORTHERN ARIZONA THROUGH TONIGHT...BEFORE TAPERING OFF WEDNESDAY
MORNING. THESE SHOWERS MAY CAUSE PERIODS OF MVFR/IFR
CONDITIONS...WITH THE BEST CHANCES OVER MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN.
AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR TAF AMENDMENTS.

&&

.FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC.........MCCOLLUM
AVIATION.......RICKEY

FOR NORTHERN ARIZONA WEATHER INFORMATION VISIT
WEATHER.GOV/FLAGSTAFF







000
FXUS65 KFGZ 032205
AFDFGZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ
230 PM MST TUE MAR 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...ANOTHER WEATHER DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE ACROSS ARIZONA
OVERNIGHT...BRINGING SCATTERED RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS TO NORTHERN
THROUGH EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING. AFTER A COLD BUT DRIER DAY ON
WEDNESDAY...HIGH PRESSURE AND A WARMING TREND WILL RETURN FOR
THURSDAY AND THROUGH THE COMING WEEKEND.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
ONE LAST WEATHER DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE ACROSS ARIZONA OVERNIGHT. THE
CENTER OF THIS NEXT DISTURBANCE WAS LOCATED OVER NORTHWEST ARIZONA
DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS...HEADING EASTWARD. DURING THE AFTERNOON,
AMPLE MOISTURE AND COLD TEMPERATURES ALOFT WERE COMBINING WITH
DAYTIME HEATING TO PRODUCE SCATTERED RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS
THE AREA. THE SCATTERED SHOWER ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE INTO
THE EVENING HOURS...THEN MOSTLY COMING TO AN END AFTER MIDNIGHT AS
THE CENTER OF THE DISTURBANCE HEADS TO THE EAST. THE SNOW LEVEL
ACROSS THE AREA WILL RANGE FROM 4500-5500 FEET. AS FAR AS SNOW
ACCUMULATION, GENERALLY LOOKING AT TRACE TO 2 INCH ACCUMULATIONS
OVERNIGHT.

STARTING WEDNESDAY AND LASTING INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...HIGH PRESSURE
WILL SLOWLY BUILD OVER THE SOUTHWEST UNITED STATES. MOISTURE AND
COLD AIR ALOFT WILL LINGER OVER FAR EASTERN ARIZONA ON WEDNESDAY FOR
A FEW LINGERING DAYTIME INSTABILITY SHOWERS. OTHERWISE, LOOK FOR
DAYTIME HIGH TEMPERATURES TO WARM 3 TO 5 DEGREES EACH DAY. IT WILL
STILL BE CHILLY ON WEDNESDAY BUT OVER THE WEEKEND MILD TEMPERATURES
ARE EXPECTED TO RETURN.

&&

.AVIATION...
FOR THE 00Z PACKAGE...RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS
NORTHERN ARIZONA THROUGH TONIGHT...BEFORE TAPERING OFF WEDNESDAY
MORNING. THESE SHOWERS MAY CAUSE PERIODS OF MVFR/IFR
CONDITIONS...WITH THE BEST CHANCES OVER MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN.
AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR TAF AMENDMENTS.

&&

.FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC.........MCCOLLUM
AVIATION.......RICKEY

FOR NORTHERN ARIZONA WEATHER INFORMATION VISIT
WEATHER.GOV/FLAGSTAFF







000
FXUS65 KFGZ 032205
AFDFGZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ
230 PM MST TUE MAR 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...ANOTHER WEATHER DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE ACROSS ARIZONA
OVERNIGHT...BRINGING SCATTERED RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS TO NORTHERN
THROUGH EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING. AFTER A COLD BUT DRIER DAY ON
WEDNESDAY...HIGH PRESSURE AND A WARMING TREND WILL RETURN FOR
THURSDAY AND THROUGH THE COMING WEEKEND.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
ONE LAST WEATHER DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE ACROSS ARIZONA OVERNIGHT. THE
CENTER OF THIS NEXT DISTURBANCE WAS LOCATED OVER NORTHWEST ARIZONA
DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS...HEADING EASTWARD. DURING THE AFTERNOON,
AMPLE MOISTURE AND COLD TEMPERATURES ALOFT WERE COMBINING WITH
DAYTIME HEATING TO PRODUCE SCATTERED RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS
THE AREA. THE SCATTERED SHOWER ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE INTO
THE EVENING HOURS...THEN MOSTLY COMING TO AN END AFTER MIDNIGHT AS
THE CENTER OF THE DISTURBANCE HEADS TO THE EAST. THE SNOW LEVEL
ACROSS THE AREA WILL RANGE FROM 4500-5500 FEET. AS FAR AS SNOW
ACCUMULATION, GENERALLY LOOKING AT TRACE TO 2 INCH ACCUMULATIONS
OVERNIGHT.

STARTING WEDNESDAY AND LASTING INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...HIGH PRESSURE
WILL SLOWLY BUILD OVER THE SOUTHWEST UNITED STATES. MOISTURE AND
COLD AIR ALOFT WILL LINGER OVER FAR EASTERN ARIZONA ON WEDNESDAY FOR
A FEW LINGERING DAYTIME INSTABILITY SHOWERS. OTHERWISE, LOOK FOR
DAYTIME HIGH TEMPERATURES TO WARM 3 TO 5 DEGREES EACH DAY. IT WILL
STILL BE CHILLY ON WEDNESDAY BUT OVER THE WEEKEND MILD TEMPERATURES
ARE EXPECTED TO RETURN.

&&

.AVIATION...
FOR THE 00Z PACKAGE...RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS
NORTHERN ARIZONA THROUGH TONIGHT...BEFORE TAPERING OFF WEDNESDAY
MORNING. THESE SHOWERS MAY CAUSE PERIODS OF MVFR/IFR
CONDITIONS...WITH THE BEST CHANCES OVER MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN.
AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR TAF AMENDMENTS.

&&

.FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC.........MCCOLLUM
AVIATION.......RICKEY

FOR NORTHERN ARIZONA WEATHER INFORMATION VISIT
WEATHER.GOV/FLAGSTAFF







000
FXUS65 KFGZ 032205
AFDFGZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ
230 PM MST TUE MAR 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...ANOTHER WEATHER DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE ACROSS ARIZONA
OVERNIGHT...BRINGING SCATTERED RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS TO NORTHERN
THROUGH EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING. AFTER A COLD BUT DRIER DAY ON
WEDNESDAY...HIGH PRESSURE AND A WARMING TREND WILL RETURN FOR
THURSDAY AND THROUGH THE COMING WEEKEND.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
ONE LAST WEATHER DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE ACROSS ARIZONA OVERNIGHT. THE
CENTER OF THIS NEXT DISTURBANCE WAS LOCATED OVER NORTHWEST ARIZONA
DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS...HEADING EASTWARD. DURING THE AFTERNOON,
AMPLE MOISTURE AND COLD TEMPERATURES ALOFT WERE COMBINING WITH
DAYTIME HEATING TO PRODUCE SCATTERED RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS
THE AREA. THE SCATTERED SHOWER ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE INTO
THE EVENING HOURS...THEN MOSTLY COMING TO AN END AFTER MIDNIGHT AS
THE CENTER OF THE DISTURBANCE HEADS TO THE EAST. THE SNOW LEVEL
ACROSS THE AREA WILL RANGE FROM 4500-5500 FEET. AS FAR AS SNOW
ACCUMULATION, GENERALLY LOOKING AT TRACE TO 2 INCH ACCUMULATIONS
OVERNIGHT.

STARTING WEDNESDAY AND LASTING INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...HIGH PRESSURE
WILL SLOWLY BUILD OVER THE SOUTHWEST UNITED STATES. MOISTURE AND
COLD AIR ALOFT WILL LINGER OVER FAR EASTERN ARIZONA ON WEDNESDAY FOR
A FEW LINGERING DAYTIME INSTABILITY SHOWERS. OTHERWISE, LOOK FOR
DAYTIME HIGH TEMPERATURES TO WARM 3 TO 5 DEGREES EACH DAY. IT WILL
STILL BE CHILLY ON WEDNESDAY BUT OVER THE WEEKEND MILD TEMPERATURES
ARE EXPECTED TO RETURN.

&&

.AVIATION...
FOR THE 00Z PACKAGE...RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS
NORTHERN ARIZONA THROUGH TONIGHT...BEFORE TAPERING OFF WEDNESDAY
MORNING. THESE SHOWERS MAY CAUSE PERIODS OF MVFR/IFR
CONDITIONS...WITH THE BEST CHANCES OVER MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN.
AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR TAF AMENDMENTS.

&&

.FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC.........MCCOLLUM
AVIATION.......RICKEY

FOR NORTHERN ARIZONA WEATHER INFORMATION VISIT
WEATHER.GOV/FLAGSTAFF







000
FXUS65 KFGZ 032205
AFDFGZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ
230 PM MST TUE MAR 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...ANOTHER WEATHER DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE ACROSS ARIZONA
OVERNIGHT...BRINGING SCATTERED RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS TO NORTHERN
THROUGH EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING. AFTER A COLD BUT DRIER DAY ON
WEDNESDAY...HIGH PRESSURE AND A WARMING TREND WILL RETURN FOR
THURSDAY AND THROUGH THE COMING WEEKEND.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
ONE LAST WEATHER DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE ACROSS ARIZONA OVERNIGHT. THE
CENTER OF THIS NEXT DISTURBANCE WAS LOCATED OVER NORTHWEST ARIZONA
DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS...HEADING EASTWARD. DURING THE AFTERNOON,
AMPLE MOISTURE AND COLD TEMPERATURES ALOFT WERE COMBINING WITH
DAYTIME HEATING TO PRODUCE SCATTERED RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS
THE AREA. THE SCATTERED SHOWER ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE INTO
THE EVENING HOURS...THEN MOSTLY COMING TO AN END AFTER MIDNIGHT AS
THE CENTER OF THE DISTURBANCE HEADS TO THE EAST. THE SNOW LEVEL
ACROSS THE AREA WILL RANGE FROM 4500-5500 FEET. AS FAR AS SNOW
ACCUMULATION, GENERALLY LOOKING AT TRACE TO 2 INCH ACCUMULATIONS
OVERNIGHT.

STARTING WEDNESDAY AND LASTING INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...HIGH PRESSURE
WILL SLOWLY BUILD OVER THE SOUTHWEST UNITED STATES. MOISTURE AND
COLD AIR ALOFT WILL LINGER OVER FAR EASTERN ARIZONA ON WEDNESDAY FOR
A FEW LINGERING DAYTIME INSTABILITY SHOWERS. OTHERWISE, LOOK FOR
DAYTIME HIGH TEMPERATURES TO WARM 3 TO 5 DEGREES EACH DAY. IT WILL
STILL BE CHILLY ON WEDNESDAY BUT OVER THE WEEKEND MILD TEMPERATURES
ARE EXPECTED TO RETURN.

&&

.AVIATION...
FOR THE 00Z PACKAGE...RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS
NORTHERN ARIZONA THROUGH TONIGHT...BEFORE TAPERING OFF WEDNESDAY
MORNING. THESE SHOWERS MAY CAUSE PERIODS OF MVFR/IFR
CONDITIONS...WITH THE BEST CHANCES OVER MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN.
AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR TAF AMENDMENTS.

&&

.FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC.........MCCOLLUM
AVIATION.......RICKEY

FOR NORTHERN ARIZONA WEATHER INFORMATION VISIT
WEATHER.GOV/FLAGSTAFF







000
FXUS65 KFGZ 032205
AFDFGZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ
230 PM MST TUE MAR 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...ANOTHER WEATHER DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE ACROSS ARIZONA
OVERNIGHT...BRINGING SCATTERED RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS TO NORTHERN
THROUGH EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING. AFTER A COLD BUT DRIER DAY ON
WEDNESDAY...HIGH PRESSURE AND A WARMING TREND WILL RETURN FOR
THURSDAY AND THROUGH THE COMING WEEKEND.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
ONE LAST WEATHER DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE ACROSS ARIZONA OVERNIGHT. THE
CENTER OF THIS NEXT DISTURBANCE WAS LOCATED OVER NORTHWEST ARIZONA
DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS...HEADING EASTWARD. DURING THE AFTERNOON,
AMPLE MOISTURE AND COLD TEMPERATURES ALOFT WERE COMBINING WITH
DAYTIME HEATING TO PRODUCE SCATTERED RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS
THE AREA. THE SCATTERED SHOWER ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE INTO
THE EVENING HOURS...THEN MOSTLY COMING TO AN END AFTER MIDNIGHT AS
THE CENTER OF THE DISTURBANCE HEADS TO THE EAST. THE SNOW LEVEL
ACROSS THE AREA WILL RANGE FROM 4500-5500 FEET. AS FAR AS SNOW
ACCUMULATION, GENERALLY LOOKING AT TRACE TO 2 INCH ACCUMULATIONS
OVERNIGHT.

STARTING WEDNESDAY AND LASTING INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...HIGH PRESSURE
WILL SLOWLY BUILD OVER THE SOUTHWEST UNITED STATES. MOISTURE AND
COLD AIR ALOFT WILL LINGER OVER FAR EASTERN ARIZONA ON WEDNESDAY FOR
A FEW LINGERING DAYTIME INSTABILITY SHOWERS. OTHERWISE, LOOK FOR
DAYTIME HIGH TEMPERATURES TO WARM 3 TO 5 DEGREES EACH DAY. IT WILL
STILL BE CHILLY ON WEDNESDAY BUT OVER THE WEEKEND MILD TEMPERATURES
ARE EXPECTED TO RETURN.

&&

.AVIATION...
FOR THE 00Z PACKAGE...RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS
NORTHERN ARIZONA THROUGH TONIGHT...BEFORE TAPERING OFF WEDNESDAY
MORNING. THESE SHOWERS MAY CAUSE PERIODS OF MVFR/IFR
CONDITIONS...WITH THE BEST CHANCES OVER MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN.
AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR TAF AMENDMENTS.

&&

.FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC.........MCCOLLUM
AVIATION.......RICKEY

FOR NORTHERN ARIZONA WEATHER INFORMATION VISIT
WEATHER.GOV/FLAGSTAFF








000
FXUS65 KTWC 032151
AFDTWC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ
250 PM MST TUE MAR 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS..ANOTHER WEATHER SYSTEM WILL MOVE ALONG OR JUST SOUTH OF
THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY AND BRING ANOTHER
CHANCE OF VALLEY RAIN AND MOUNTAIN SNOW...MAINLY NEAR THE
INTERNATIONAL BORDER. DRY CONDITIONS AREAWIDE AND WARMER
TEMPERATURES STARTING THURSDAY INTO THE WEEKEND.

&&

.DISCUSSION...SCATTERED CUMULUS CLOUDS ACROSS THE AREA THIS
AFTERNOON WHILE WATER VAPOR SHOWED OUT NEXT SYSTEM OFF THE NRN BAJA
COAST. THIS UPPER LOW HAS STOPPED DIGGING S AND HAS STARTED TO MOVE
TO THE E. AS THIS SYSTEM MOVES ACROSS E ACROSS NRN BAJA TONIGHT AND
THEN NORTHERN SONORA WEDNESDAY IT WILL KINDA PHASE WITH A TROF
DROPPING S FROM THE GREAT BASIN. BEST MOISTURE FIELDS ARE FORECAST
TO BE ALONG THE SOUTHERN AREAS NEAR THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER LATER
TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. HIGH END CHANCE POPS ACROSS SANTA CRUZ AND
SRN COCHISE COUNTIES STARTING LATER TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY BUT THAT
STILL MAY NOT BE HIGH ENOUGH. TOTAL QPF IN THIS AREA IS FORECAST TO
BE IN THE 0.15"-0.40" RANGE...HIGHER IN THE HUACHUCA AND CHIRICAHUA
MOUNTAINS...WITH SNOW AMOUNT IN THESE RANGES ABOVE 6500 FEET OF 1-4".
ADDED SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS FOR WEDNESDAY ASSOCIATED WITH
COLD POOL MOVING THRU.

TROF AXIS MOVES THRU WEDNESDAY NIGHT...BUT A PIECE WILL BE LEFT
BEHIND AND COMBINED WITH ANOTHER PIECE OF ENERGY DROPPING IN FROM
THE N...A WEAK UPPER LEVEL TROF WILL EXIST OVER THE AREA THURSDAY
INTO FRIDAY. MODELS THEN DIVERGE ON HOW LONG THIS GENERALLY DRY TROF
WILL HANG AROUND THE AREA. IF IT HANGS AROUND LONG ENOUGH MAY HAVE
TIME TO DRAW IN SOME MOISTURE FROM THE S ACROSS THE ERN ZONES.
SOMETHING TO WATCH. OTHERWISE DRY FORECAST THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK
WITH A WARMING TREND.

&&

.AVIATION...VALID THRU 05/00Z.
VFR CONDITIONS WILL GENERALLY BE THE RULE THRU WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.
HOWEVER...THERE IS A CHANCE OF -SHRA AND HIGHER TERRAIN -SHSN
TONIGHT MAINLY FROM KTUS SOUTH TO THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER. A CHANCE
OF -SHRA AND HIGHER TERRAIN -SHSN EXISTS MAINLY EAST AND SOUTH OF
KTUS WEDNESDAY. ENOUGH INSTABILITY WILL PROVIDE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
-TSRA WEDNESDAY. EXPECT PATCHY FOG LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY WEDNESDAY
MORNING. THUS...MVFR CONDITIONS MAY OCCUR DUE TO SHOWERS AND PATCHY
FOG. OTHERWISE...CLOUD BASES WILL MAINLY RANGE FROM 3-7K FT AGL.
SURFACE WIND WILL DIMINISH TO LESS THAN 10 KTS FOR MOST SECTIONS
EARLY THIS EVENING AND CONTINUE INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING. SURFACE WIND
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON WILL BE WLY/NWLY AT 10-20 KTS. THE STRONGEST
WIND WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON WILL BE NEAR KSAD WITH GUSTS OF 25-30 KTS
POSSIBLE. AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR TAF AMENDMENTS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS SONORA
MEXICO LATE TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. THERE IS A CHANCE OF SHOWERS
MAINLY SOUTH OF TUCSON TONIGHT. A CHANCE OF SHOWERS EXISTS WEDNESDAY
MAINLY SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST OF TUCSON...AND ACROSS THE WHITE
MOUNTAINS. A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS ALSO EXISTS WEDNESDAY
FROM TUCSON EAST AND SOUTH TO THE NEW MEXICO/INTERNATIONAL BORDERS.
A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS CONTINUES WEDNESDAY EVENING ACROSS FAR
SOUTHERN AND EASTERN COCHISE COUNTY. DRY CONDITIONS WILL THEN
PREVAIL LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. 20-FOOT WINDS
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON WILL BE MAINLY WEST TO NORTHWEST AT 5 TO 15 MPH.
HOWEVER...20-FOOT WIND GUSTS OF 20-25 MPH MAY OCCUR ACROSS THE UPPER
GILA VALLEY INCLUDING SAFFORD. THEREAFTER...20-FOOT WINDS THURSDAY
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK WILL GENERALLY BE EAST AT 5-15 MPH.

&&

.TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...YOUTUBE...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/TUCSON







000
FXUS65 KTWC 032151
AFDTWC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ
250 PM MST TUE MAR 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS..ANOTHER WEATHER SYSTEM WILL MOVE ALONG OR JUST SOUTH OF
THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY AND BRING ANOTHER
CHANCE OF VALLEY RAIN AND MOUNTAIN SNOW...MAINLY NEAR THE
INTERNATIONAL BORDER. DRY CONDITIONS AREAWIDE AND WARMER
TEMPERATURES STARTING THURSDAY INTO THE WEEKEND.

&&

.DISCUSSION...SCATTERED CUMULUS CLOUDS ACROSS THE AREA THIS
AFTERNOON WHILE WATER VAPOR SHOWED OUT NEXT SYSTEM OFF THE NRN BAJA
COAST. THIS UPPER LOW HAS STOPPED DIGGING S AND HAS STARTED TO MOVE
TO THE E. AS THIS SYSTEM MOVES ACROSS E ACROSS NRN BAJA TONIGHT AND
THEN NORTHERN SONORA WEDNESDAY IT WILL KINDA PHASE WITH A TROF
DROPPING S FROM THE GREAT BASIN. BEST MOISTURE FIELDS ARE FORECAST
TO BE ALONG THE SOUTHERN AREAS NEAR THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER LATER
TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. HIGH END CHANCE POPS ACROSS SANTA CRUZ AND
SRN COCHISE COUNTIES STARTING LATER TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY BUT THAT
STILL MAY NOT BE HIGH ENOUGH. TOTAL QPF IN THIS AREA IS FORECAST TO
BE IN THE 0.15"-0.40" RANGE...HIGHER IN THE HUACHUCA AND CHIRICAHUA
MOUNTAINS...WITH SNOW AMOUNT IN THESE RANGES ABOVE 6500 FEET OF 1-4".
ADDED SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS FOR WEDNESDAY ASSOCIATED WITH
COLD POOL MOVING THRU.

TROF AXIS MOVES THRU WEDNESDAY NIGHT...BUT A PIECE WILL BE LEFT
BEHIND AND COMBINED WITH ANOTHER PIECE OF ENERGY DROPPING IN FROM
THE N...A WEAK UPPER LEVEL TROF WILL EXIST OVER THE AREA THURSDAY
INTO FRIDAY. MODELS THEN DIVERGE ON HOW LONG THIS GENERALLY DRY TROF
WILL HANG AROUND THE AREA. IF IT HANGS AROUND LONG ENOUGH MAY HAVE
TIME TO DRAW IN SOME MOISTURE FROM THE S ACROSS THE ERN ZONES.
SOMETHING TO WATCH. OTHERWISE DRY FORECAST THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK
WITH A WARMING TREND.

&&

.AVIATION...VALID THRU 05/00Z.
VFR CONDITIONS WILL GENERALLY BE THE RULE THRU WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.
HOWEVER...THERE IS A CHANCE OF -SHRA AND HIGHER TERRAIN -SHSN
TONIGHT MAINLY FROM KTUS SOUTH TO THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER. A CHANCE
OF -SHRA AND HIGHER TERRAIN -SHSN EXISTS MAINLY EAST AND SOUTH OF
KTUS WEDNESDAY. ENOUGH INSTABILITY WILL PROVIDE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
-TSRA WEDNESDAY. EXPECT PATCHY FOG LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY WEDNESDAY
MORNING. THUS...MVFR CONDITIONS MAY OCCUR DUE TO SHOWERS AND PATCHY
FOG. OTHERWISE...CLOUD BASES WILL MAINLY RANGE FROM 3-7K FT AGL.
SURFACE WIND WILL DIMINISH TO LESS THAN 10 KTS FOR MOST SECTIONS
EARLY THIS EVENING AND CONTINUE INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING. SURFACE WIND
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON WILL BE WLY/NWLY AT 10-20 KTS. THE STRONGEST
WIND WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON WILL BE NEAR KSAD WITH GUSTS OF 25-30 KTS
POSSIBLE. AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR TAF AMENDMENTS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS SONORA
MEXICO LATE TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. THERE IS A CHANCE OF SHOWERS
MAINLY SOUTH OF TUCSON TONIGHT. A CHANCE OF SHOWERS EXISTS WEDNESDAY
MAINLY SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST OF TUCSON...AND ACROSS THE WHITE
MOUNTAINS. A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS ALSO EXISTS WEDNESDAY
FROM TUCSON EAST AND SOUTH TO THE NEW MEXICO/INTERNATIONAL BORDERS.
A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS CONTINUES WEDNESDAY EVENING ACROSS FAR
SOUTHERN AND EASTERN COCHISE COUNTY. DRY CONDITIONS WILL THEN
PREVAIL LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. 20-FOOT WINDS
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON WILL BE MAINLY WEST TO NORTHWEST AT 5 TO 15 MPH.
HOWEVER...20-FOOT WIND GUSTS OF 20-25 MPH MAY OCCUR ACROSS THE UPPER
GILA VALLEY INCLUDING SAFFORD. THEREAFTER...20-FOOT WINDS THURSDAY
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK WILL GENERALLY BE EAST AT 5-15 MPH.

&&

.TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...YOUTUBE...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/TUCSON







000
FXUS65 KTWC 032151
AFDTWC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ
250 PM MST TUE MAR 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS..ANOTHER WEATHER SYSTEM WILL MOVE ALONG OR JUST SOUTH OF
THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY AND BRING ANOTHER
CHANCE OF VALLEY RAIN AND MOUNTAIN SNOW...MAINLY NEAR THE
INTERNATIONAL BORDER. DRY CONDITIONS AREAWIDE AND WARMER
TEMPERATURES STARTING THURSDAY INTO THE WEEKEND.

&&

.DISCUSSION...SCATTERED CUMULUS CLOUDS ACROSS THE AREA THIS
AFTERNOON WHILE WATER VAPOR SHOWED OUT NEXT SYSTEM OFF THE NRN BAJA
COAST. THIS UPPER LOW HAS STOPPED DIGGING S AND HAS STARTED TO MOVE
TO THE E. AS THIS SYSTEM MOVES ACROSS E ACROSS NRN BAJA TONIGHT AND
THEN NORTHERN SONORA WEDNESDAY IT WILL KINDA PHASE WITH A TROF
DROPPING S FROM THE GREAT BASIN. BEST MOISTURE FIELDS ARE FORECAST
TO BE ALONG THE SOUTHERN AREAS NEAR THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER LATER
TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. HIGH END CHANCE POPS ACROSS SANTA CRUZ AND
SRN COCHISE COUNTIES STARTING LATER TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY BUT THAT
STILL MAY NOT BE HIGH ENOUGH. TOTAL QPF IN THIS AREA IS FORECAST TO
BE IN THE 0.15"-0.40" RANGE...HIGHER IN THE HUACHUCA AND CHIRICAHUA
MOUNTAINS...WITH SNOW AMOUNT IN THESE RANGES ABOVE 6500 FEET OF 1-4".
ADDED SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS FOR WEDNESDAY ASSOCIATED WITH
COLD POOL MOVING THRU.

TROF AXIS MOVES THRU WEDNESDAY NIGHT...BUT A PIECE WILL BE LEFT
BEHIND AND COMBINED WITH ANOTHER PIECE OF ENERGY DROPPING IN FROM
THE N...A WEAK UPPER LEVEL TROF WILL EXIST OVER THE AREA THURSDAY
INTO FRIDAY. MODELS THEN DIVERGE ON HOW LONG THIS GENERALLY DRY TROF
WILL HANG AROUND THE AREA. IF IT HANGS AROUND LONG ENOUGH MAY HAVE
TIME TO DRAW IN SOME MOISTURE FROM THE S ACROSS THE ERN ZONES.
SOMETHING TO WATCH. OTHERWISE DRY FORECAST THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK
WITH A WARMING TREND.

&&

.AVIATION...VALID THRU 05/00Z.
VFR CONDITIONS WILL GENERALLY BE THE RULE THRU WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.
HOWEVER...THERE IS A CHANCE OF -SHRA AND HIGHER TERRAIN -SHSN
TONIGHT MAINLY FROM KTUS SOUTH TO THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER. A CHANCE
OF -SHRA AND HIGHER TERRAIN -SHSN EXISTS MAINLY EAST AND SOUTH OF
KTUS WEDNESDAY. ENOUGH INSTABILITY WILL PROVIDE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
-TSRA WEDNESDAY. EXPECT PATCHY FOG LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY WEDNESDAY
MORNING. THUS...MVFR CONDITIONS MAY OCCUR DUE TO SHOWERS AND PATCHY
FOG. OTHERWISE...CLOUD BASES WILL MAINLY RANGE FROM 3-7K FT AGL.
SURFACE WIND WILL DIMINISH TO LESS THAN 10 KTS FOR MOST SECTIONS
EARLY THIS EVENING AND CONTINUE INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING. SURFACE WIND
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON WILL BE WLY/NWLY AT 10-20 KTS. THE STRONGEST
WIND WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON WILL BE NEAR KSAD WITH GUSTS OF 25-30 KTS
POSSIBLE. AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR TAF AMENDMENTS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS SONORA
MEXICO LATE TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. THERE IS A CHANCE OF SHOWERS
MAINLY SOUTH OF TUCSON TONIGHT. A CHANCE OF SHOWERS EXISTS WEDNESDAY
MAINLY SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST OF TUCSON...AND ACROSS THE WHITE
MOUNTAINS. A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS ALSO EXISTS WEDNESDAY
FROM TUCSON EAST AND SOUTH TO THE NEW MEXICO/INTERNATIONAL BORDERS.
A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS CONTINUES WEDNESDAY EVENING ACROSS FAR
SOUTHERN AND EASTERN COCHISE COUNTY. DRY CONDITIONS WILL THEN
PREVAIL LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. 20-FOOT WINDS
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON WILL BE MAINLY WEST TO NORTHWEST AT 5 TO 15 MPH.
HOWEVER...20-FOOT WIND GUSTS OF 20-25 MPH MAY OCCUR ACROSS THE UPPER
GILA VALLEY INCLUDING SAFFORD. THEREAFTER...20-FOOT WINDS THURSDAY
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK WILL GENERALLY BE EAST AT 5-15 MPH.

&&

.TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...YOUTUBE...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/TUCSON






000
FXUS65 KTWC 032151
AFDTWC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ
250 PM MST TUE MAR 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS..ANOTHER WEATHER SYSTEM WILL MOVE ALONG OR JUST SOUTH OF
THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY AND BRING ANOTHER
CHANCE OF VALLEY RAIN AND MOUNTAIN SNOW...MAINLY NEAR THE
INTERNATIONAL BORDER. DRY CONDITIONS AREAWIDE AND WARMER
TEMPERATURES STARTING THURSDAY INTO THE WEEKEND.

&&

.DISCUSSION...SCATTERED CUMULUS CLOUDS ACROSS THE AREA THIS
AFTERNOON WHILE WATER VAPOR SHOWED OUT NEXT SYSTEM OFF THE NRN BAJA
COAST. THIS UPPER LOW HAS STOPPED DIGGING S AND HAS STARTED TO MOVE
TO THE E. AS THIS SYSTEM MOVES ACROSS E ACROSS NRN BAJA TONIGHT AND
THEN NORTHERN SONORA WEDNESDAY IT WILL KINDA PHASE WITH A TROF
DROPPING S FROM THE GREAT BASIN. BEST MOISTURE FIELDS ARE FORECAST
TO BE ALONG THE SOUTHERN AREAS NEAR THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER LATER
TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. HIGH END CHANCE POPS ACROSS SANTA CRUZ AND
SRN COCHISE COUNTIES STARTING LATER TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY BUT THAT
STILL MAY NOT BE HIGH ENOUGH. TOTAL QPF IN THIS AREA IS FORECAST TO
BE IN THE 0.15"-0.40" RANGE...HIGHER IN THE HUACHUCA AND CHIRICAHUA
MOUNTAINS...WITH SNOW AMOUNT IN THESE RANGES ABOVE 6500 FEET OF 1-4".
ADDED SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS FOR WEDNESDAY ASSOCIATED WITH
COLD POOL MOVING THRU.

TROF AXIS MOVES THRU WEDNESDAY NIGHT...BUT A PIECE WILL BE LEFT
BEHIND AND COMBINED WITH ANOTHER PIECE OF ENERGY DROPPING IN FROM
THE N...A WEAK UPPER LEVEL TROF WILL EXIST OVER THE AREA THURSDAY
INTO FRIDAY. MODELS THEN DIVERGE ON HOW LONG THIS GENERALLY DRY TROF
WILL HANG AROUND THE AREA. IF IT HANGS AROUND LONG ENOUGH MAY HAVE
TIME TO DRAW IN SOME MOISTURE FROM THE S ACROSS THE ERN ZONES.
SOMETHING TO WATCH. OTHERWISE DRY FORECAST THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK
WITH A WARMING TREND.

&&

.AVIATION...VALID THRU 05/00Z.
VFR CONDITIONS WILL GENERALLY BE THE RULE THRU WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.
HOWEVER...THERE IS A CHANCE OF -SHRA AND HIGHER TERRAIN -SHSN
TONIGHT MAINLY FROM KTUS SOUTH TO THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER. A CHANCE
OF -SHRA AND HIGHER TERRAIN -SHSN EXISTS MAINLY EAST AND SOUTH OF
KTUS WEDNESDAY. ENOUGH INSTABILITY WILL PROVIDE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
-TSRA WEDNESDAY. EXPECT PATCHY FOG LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY WEDNESDAY
MORNING. THUS...MVFR CONDITIONS MAY OCCUR DUE TO SHOWERS AND PATCHY
FOG. OTHERWISE...CLOUD BASES WILL MAINLY RANGE FROM 3-7K FT AGL.
SURFACE WIND WILL DIMINISH TO LESS THAN 10 KTS FOR MOST SECTIONS
EARLY THIS EVENING AND CONTINUE INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING. SURFACE WIND
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON WILL BE WLY/NWLY AT 10-20 KTS. THE STRONGEST
WIND WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON WILL BE NEAR KSAD WITH GUSTS OF 25-30 KTS
POSSIBLE. AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR TAF AMENDMENTS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS SONORA
MEXICO LATE TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. THERE IS A CHANCE OF SHOWERS
MAINLY SOUTH OF TUCSON TONIGHT. A CHANCE OF SHOWERS EXISTS WEDNESDAY
MAINLY SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST OF TUCSON...AND ACROSS THE WHITE
MOUNTAINS. A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS ALSO EXISTS WEDNESDAY
FROM TUCSON EAST AND SOUTH TO THE NEW MEXICO/INTERNATIONAL BORDERS.
A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS CONTINUES WEDNESDAY EVENING ACROSS FAR
SOUTHERN AND EASTERN COCHISE COUNTY. DRY CONDITIONS WILL THEN
PREVAIL LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. 20-FOOT WINDS
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON WILL BE MAINLY WEST TO NORTHWEST AT 5 TO 15 MPH.
HOWEVER...20-FOOT WIND GUSTS OF 20-25 MPH MAY OCCUR ACROSS THE UPPER
GILA VALLEY INCLUDING SAFFORD. THEREAFTER...20-FOOT WINDS THURSDAY
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK WILL GENERALLY BE EAST AT 5-15 MPH.

&&

.TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...YOUTUBE...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/TUCSON






000
FXUS65 KPSR 032020
AFDPSR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PHOENIX AZ
120 PM MST TUE MAR 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE...THAT WILL BE MOVING SLOWLY SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE
REGION...WILL KEEP THE WEATHER RATHER UNSETTLED AND COOL THROUGH
WEDNESDAY. A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS...AND EVEN A FEW THUNDERSTORMS
CAN BE EXPECTED OVER SOUTH CENTRAL ARIZONA THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING.
A RETURN TO ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES IS LIKELY BY THURSDAY...INTO
THE WEEKEND AS HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM BUILDS OVER THE DESERT
SOUTHWEST.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE TROF OVER THE DESERT SOUTHWEST...EXTENDING
SOUTHWESTWARD TO A POSITION JUST OFF THE CENTRAL BAJA CA
COAST...CONTINUED TO PUSH SLOWLY EAST-SOUTHEAST THIS AFTERNOON WITH
THE TROF AXIS STARTING TO PUSH INTO FAR WESTERN ARIZONA. LINGERING
BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE...WITH SURFACE DEWPOINTS ACROSS THE CENTRAL
DESERTS IN THE 40S...COMBINED WITH COOL AIR ALOFT TO ALLOW FOR
SIGNIFICANT CUMULUS DEVELOPMENT OVER THE LOWER DESERTS EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON. DYNAMICS WILL BE RATHER WEAK BUT THERE WILL CERTAINLY BE
A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR INSTABILITY SHOWERS OR EVEN A WEAK THUNDERSTORM
FOR THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON AND INTO THE EVENING HOURS FOR MOST
AREAS TO THE EAST OF THE LOWER COLORADO RIVER VALLEY. IN
FACT...RADAR AT 1 PM SHOWED ISOLATED SHOWERS MOVING ACROSS THE
CENTRAL DESERTS...AND ONE PUNY SHOWER ACTALLY PRODUCED BRIEF HEAVY
RAIN AT SKY HARBOR AIRPORT.

BY WEDNESDAY MORNING THE TROF AXIS IS FORECAST TO PUSH EAST OF THE
GREATER PHOENIX AREA ALLOWING FOR A DRIER AND MORE SUBSIDENT
NLY/NWLY FLOW ALOFT TO OVERSPREAD THE CENTRAL DESERTS AND CONFINE
ANY THREAT FOR SHOWERS OR STORMS TO THE HIGHER TERRAIN AREAS EAST OF
PHOENIX. WITH BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE REMAINING ELEVATED WEDNESDAY
MORNING...AND SIGNIFICANT CLEARING EXPECTED BY SUNRISE...THERE WILL
AGAIN BE THE POTENTIAL FOR FOG DEVELOPMENT. WE EXPECT LESS AREAL
COVERAGE OF THE FOG AND IT SHOULD NOT BE AS DENSE AS WHAT OCCURRED
THIS MORNING...BUT WE WILL MENTION PATCHY FOG FOR WED MORNING FROM
MARICOPA COUNTY EASTWARD. BY AFTERNOON WED WE SHOULD SOME FAIR
WEATHER CU OVER THE CENTRAL DESERTS...WITH SKIES MOSTLY SUNNY FROM
PHOENIX WESTWARD. WE WILL CALL FOR A SLIGHT CHANCE OF LINGERING
SHOWERS ACROSS ZONE 24 WITH THE THREAT ENDING BY EARLY EVENING
WEDNESDAY. HIGH TEMPS WILL CLIMB A FEW DEGREES AS THE AIRMASS WARMS
UP A BIT...BUT READINGS WILL REMAIN BELOW SEASONAL NORMALS.

THURSDAY...
A DRYING AND SUBSIDENT NORTHERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL SET UP ACROSS THE
AREA AS HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT STARTS TO BUILD ALONG THE CA COAST. THIS
WILL LEAD TO SUNNY SKIES...AND CONTINUED WARMING WITH HIGH TEMPS
REACHING INTO THE LOW TO MID 70S...AND TOWARDS SEASONAL NORMALS.

FRIDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...
A WARMING TREND IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THIS PERIOD UNDER
MAINLY CLEAR SKIES AS HIGH PRESSURE STRENGTHENS OVER THE
REGION...WITH A GOOD CHANCE FOR HIGHS NEAR 80 ACROSS THE LOWER
DESERTS BY THE WEEKEND...AND EVEN INTO THE MID 80S BY NEXT TUESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...
SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA INCLUDING KPHX...KIWA AND KSDL...
PLENTY OF LOW-LEVEL AND BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE REMAINS OVER THE
AREA AND WILL RESULT IN CONTINUED DEVELOPMENT OF CONGESTED CU FIELDS
THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING. UPPER TROUGH AXIS IS ALSO STILL MOVING
THROUGH THE AREA AND WILL ALLOW FOR SHOWER DEVELOPMENT TO POP-UP FOR
THE EVENING. ADDED VCSH MENTION FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE MIDDAY/AFTN
HOURS IN FOR THE PHX TERMINALS. WINDS WILL EVENTUALLY TRANSITION TO
AFTN SOUTHWEST-WEST HEADINGS WITH GNLY LIGHT SPEEDS. MORE ERRATIC
WINDS WITH LOCALIZED GUSTINESS WILL BE POSSIBLE DUE TO
VICINITY/PASSING SHOWERS AND ALONG WITH VERY SHORT WINDOWS OF VSBY
RESTRICTION/LOWERED CIGS.

BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE WILL REMAIN SOMEWHAT ELEVATED OVERNIGHT...SO
THERE IS A REMOTE POSSIBILITY OF PATCHY FOG IN THE AM. SOME DRYING
ACROSS THE PHX AREA THIS AFTERNOON SHOULD HELP KEEP THE CROSSOVER
TEMPERATURE AT KPHX AWAY FROM CRITICAL FOG THRESHOLDS FOR WED AM.
LOCAL SREF GUIDANCE HAS REMOTE CHANCES FOR REDUCED VSBYS AGAIN IN
THE AM. WILL HOLD OFF ANY RESTRICTIONS OR BR/FG INCLUSION IN TAFS
ATTM AS UNCERTAINTY IT HIGH FOR A TWO-MORNING-IN-A-ROW EVENT.

SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA AND SOUTHWEST ARIZONA INCLUDING KIPL AND KBLH...
NO AVIATION CONCERNS THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING WITH JUST OCCASIONAL
HIGH CLOUDS AND A FEW AFTERNOON CU TO DEAL WITH. SFC WINDS WILL
GENERALLY FAVOR A NORTHWEST DIRECTION...HOWEVER THE WEAK PRESSURE
GRADIENT MAY ALLOW EXTENDED PERIODS OF VARIABLE DIRECTION WITH
SPEEDS AOB 6 KT.

AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDED TAFS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY...
STRONG HIGH PRESSURE WILL PROVIDE SEASONABLY WARM AND DRY CONDITIONS
TO THE DISTRICT DURING THE END OF OF THIS WEEK INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
WITH TEMPERATURES SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL...AFTERNOON HUMIDITY LEVELS
WILL REGULARLY FALL INTO A 15 TO 25 PERCENT RANGE WITH GOOD
OVERNIGHT RECOVERY. WINDS WILL FAVOR A NORTH TO NORTHEAST TRAJECTORY
THROUGH THE PERIOD...WITH SOME OCCASIONAL GUSTINESS OVER RIDGE TOPS
BUT ALL IN ALL VERY TYPICAL SPEEDS. OVERALL...FIRE DANGER WILL BE
LIMITED DURING THIS TIME FRAME.

&&

.PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

AZ...NONE.

CA...NONE.

&&

$$

VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/PHOENIX

DISCUSSION...PERCHA/CB
AVIATION...NOLTE/MO
FIRE WEATHER...MO


















000
FXUS65 KPSR 032020
AFDPSR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PHOENIX AZ
120 PM MST TUE MAR 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE...THAT WILL BE MOVING SLOWLY SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE
REGION...WILL KEEP THE WEATHER RATHER UNSETTLED AND COOL THROUGH
WEDNESDAY. A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS...AND EVEN A FEW THUNDERSTORMS
CAN BE EXPECTED OVER SOUTH CENTRAL ARIZONA THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING.
A RETURN TO ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES IS LIKELY BY THURSDAY...INTO
THE WEEKEND AS HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM BUILDS OVER THE DESERT
SOUTHWEST.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE TROF OVER THE DESERT SOUTHWEST...EXTENDING
SOUTHWESTWARD TO A POSITION JUST OFF THE CENTRAL BAJA CA
COAST...CONTINUED TO PUSH SLOWLY EAST-SOUTHEAST THIS AFTERNOON WITH
THE TROF AXIS STARTING TO PUSH INTO FAR WESTERN ARIZONA. LINGERING
BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE...WITH SURFACE DEWPOINTS ACROSS THE CENTRAL
DESERTS IN THE 40S...COMBINED WITH COOL AIR ALOFT TO ALLOW FOR
SIGNIFICANT CUMULUS DEVELOPMENT OVER THE LOWER DESERTS EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON. DYNAMICS WILL BE RATHER WEAK BUT THERE WILL CERTAINLY BE
A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR INSTABILITY SHOWERS OR EVEN A WEAK THUNDERSTORM
FOR THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON AND INTO THE EVENING HOURS FOR MOST
AREAS TO THE EAST OF THE LOWER COLORADO RIVER VALLEY. IN
FACT...RADAR AT 1 PM SHOWED ISOLATED SHOWERS MOVING ACROSS THE
CENTRAL DESERTS...AND ONE PUNY SHOWER ACTALLY PRODUCED BRIEF HEAVY
RAIN AT SKY HARBOR AIRPORT.

BY WEDNESDAY MORNING THE TROF AXIS IS FORECAST TO PUSH EAST OF THE
GREATER PHOENIX AREA ALLOWING FOR A DRIER AND MORE SUBSIDENT
NLY/NWLY FLOW ALOFT TO OVERSPREAD THE CENTRAL DESERTS AND CONFINE
ANY THREAT FOR SHOWERS OR STORMS TO THE HIGHER TERRAIN AREAS EAST OF
PHOENIX. WITH BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE REMAINING ELEVATED WEDNESDAY
MORNING...AND SIGNIFICANT CLEARING EXPECTED BY SUNRISE...THERE WILL
AGAIN BE THE POTENTIAL FOR FOG DEVELOPMENT. WE EXPECT LESS AREAL
COVERAGE OF THE FOG AND IT SHOULD NOT BE AS DENSE AS WHAT OCCURRED
THIS MORNING...BUT WE WILL MENTION PATCHY FOG FOR WED MORNING FROM
MARICOPA COUNTY EASTWARD. BY AFTERNOON WED WE SHOULD SOME FAIR
WEATHER CU OVER THE CENTRAL DESERTS...WITH SKIES MOSTLY SUNNY FROM
PHOENIX WESTWARD. WE WILL CALL FOR A SLIGHT CHANCE OF LINGERING
SHOWERS ACROSS ZONE 24 WITH THE THREAT ENDING BY EARLY EVENING
WEDNESDAY. HIGH TEMPS WILL CLIMB A FEW DEGREES AS THE AIRMASS WARMS
UP A BIT...BUT READINGS WILL REMAIN BELOW SEASONAL NORMALS.

THURSDAY...
A DRYING AND SUBSIDENT NORTHERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL SET UP ACROSS THE
AREA AS HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT STARTS TO BUILD ALONG THE CA COAST. THIS
WILL LEAD TO SUNNY SKIES...AND CONTINUED WARMING WITH HIGH TEMPS
REACHING INTO THE LOW TO MID 70S...AND TOWARDS SEASONAL NORMALS.

FRIDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...
A WARMING TREND IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THIS PERIOD UNDER
MAINLY CLEAR SKIES AS HIGH PRESSURE STRENGTHENS OVER THE
REGION...WITH A GOOD CHANCE FOR HIGHS NEAR 80 ACROSS THE LOWER
DESERTS BY THE WEEKEND...AND EVEN INTO THE MID 80S BY NEXT TUESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...
SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA INCLUDING KPHX...KIWA AND KSDL...
PLENTY OF LOW-LEVEL AND BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE REMAINS OVER THE
AREA AND WILL RESULT IN CONTINUED DEVELOPMENT OF CONGESTED CU FIELDS
THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING. UPPER TROUGH AXIS IS ALSO STILL MOVING
THROUGH THE AREA AND WILL ALLOW FOR SHOWER DEVELOPMENT TO POP-UP FOR
THE EVENING. ADDED VCSH MENTION FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE MIDDAY/AFTN
HOURS IN FOR THE PHX TERMINALS. WINDS WILL EVENTUALLY TRANSITION TO
AFTN SOUTHWEST-WEST HEADINGS WITH GNLY LIGHT SPEEDS. MORE ERRATIC
WINDS WITH LOCALIZED GUSTINESS WILL BE POSSIBLE DUE TO
VICINITY/PASSING SHOWERS AND ALONG WITH VERY SHORT WINDOWS OF VSBY
RESTRICTION/LOWERED CIGS.

BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE WILL REMAIN SOMEWHAT ELEVATED OVERNIGHT...SO
THERE IS A REMOTE POSSIBILITY OF PATCHY FOG IN THE AM. SOME DRYING
ACROSS THE PHX AREA THIS AFTERNOON SHOULD HELP KEEP THE CROSSOVER
TEMPERATURE AT KPHX AWAY FROM CRITICAL FOG THRESHOLDS FOR WED AM.
LOCAL SREF GUIDANCE HAS REMOTE CHANCES FOR REDUCED VSBYS AGAIN IN
THE AM. WILL HOLD OFF ANY RESTRICTIONS OR BR/FG INCLUSION IN TAFS
ATTM AS UNCERTAINTY IT HIGH FOR A TWO-MORNING-IN-A-ROW EVENT.

SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA AND SOUTHWEST ARIZONA INCLUDING KIPL AND KBLH...
NO AVIATION CONCERNS THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING WITH JUST OCCASIONAL
HIGH CLOUDS AND A FEW AFTERNOON CU TO DEAL WITH. SFC WINDS WILL
GENERALLY FAVOR A NORTHWEST DIRECTION...HOWEVER THE WEAK PRESSURE
GRADIENT MAY ALLOW EXTENDED PERIODS OF VARIABLE DIRECTION WITH
SPEEDS AOB 6 KT.

AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDED TAFS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY...
STRONG HIGH PRESSURE WILL PROVIDE SEASONABLY WARM AND DRY CONDITIONS
TO THE DISTRICT DURING THE END OF OF THIS WEEK INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
WITH TEMPERATURES SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL...AFTERNOON HUMIDITY LEVELS
WILL REGULARLY FALL INTO A 15 TO 25 PERCENT RANGE WITH GOOD
OVERNIGHT RECOVERY. WINDS WILL FAVOR A NORTH TO NORTHEAST TRAJECTORY
THROUGH THE PERIOD...WITH SOME OCCASIONAL GUSTINESS OVER RIDGE TOPS
BUT ALL IN ALL VERY TYPICAL SPEEDS. OVERALL...FIRE DANGER WILL BE
LIMITED DURING THIS TIME FRAME.

&&

.PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

AZ...NONE.

CA...NONE.

&&

$$

VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/PHOENIX

DISCUSSION...PERCHA/CB
AVIATION...NOLTE/MO
FIRE WEATHER...MO


















000
FXUS65 KPSR 032020
AFDPSR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PHOENIX AZ
120 PM MST TUE MAR 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE...THAT WILL BE MOVING SLOWLY SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE
REGION...WILL KEEP THE WEATHER RATHER UNSETTLED AND COOL THROUGH
WEDNESDAY. A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS...AND EVEN A FEW THUNDERSTORMS
CAN BE EXPECTED OVER SOUTH CENTRAL ARIZONA THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING.
A RETURN TO ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES IS LIKELY BY THURSDAY...INTO
THE WEEKEND AS HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM BUILDS OVER THE DESERT
SOUTHWEST.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE TROF OVER THE DESERT SOUTHWEST...EXTENDING
SOUTHWESTWARD TO A POSITION JUST OFF THE CENTRAL BAJA CA
COAST...CONTINUED TO PUSH SLOWLY EAST-SOUTHEAST THIS AFTERNOON WITH
THE TROF AXIS STARTING TO PUSH INTO FAR WESTERN ARIZONA. LINGERING
BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE...WITH SURFACE DEWPOINTS ACROSS THE CENTRAL
DESERTS IN THE 40S...COMBINED WITH COOL AIR ALOFT TO ALLOW FOR
SIGNIFICANT CUMULUS DEVELOPMENT OVER THE LOWER DESERTS EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON. DYNAMICS WILL BE RATHER WEAK BUT THERE WILL CERTAINLY BE
A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR INSTABILITY SHOWERS OR EVEN A WEAK THUNDERSTORM
FOR THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON AND INTO THE EVENING HOURS FOR MOST
AREAS TO THE EAST OF THE LOWER COLORADO RIVER VALLEY. IN
FACT...RADAR AT 1 PM SHOWED ISOLATED SHOWERS MOVING ACROSS THE
CENTRAL DESERTS...AND ONE PUNY SHOWER ACTALLY PRODUCED BRIEF HEAVY
RAIN AT SKY HARBOR AIRPORT.

BY WEDNESDAY MORNING THE TROF AXIS IS FORECAST TO PUSH EAST OF THE
GREATER PHOENIX AREA ALLOWING FOR A DRIER AND MORE SUBSIDENT
NLY/NWLY FLOW ALOFT TO OVERSPREAD THE CENTRAL DESERTS AND CONFINE
ANY THREAT FOR SHOWERS OR STORMS TO THE HIGHER TERRAIN AREAS EAST OF
PHOENIX. WITH BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE REMAINING ELEVATED WEDNESDAY
MORNING...AND SIGNIFICANT CLEARING EXPECTED BY SUNRISE...THERE WILL
AGAIN BE THE POTENTIAL FOR FOG DEVELOPMENT. WE EXPECT LESS AREAL
COVERAGE OF THE FOG AND IT SHOULD NOT BE AS DENSE AS WHAT OCCURRED
THIS MORNING...BUT WE WILL MENTION PATCHY FOG FOR WED MORNING FROM
MARICOPA COUNTY EASTWARD. BY AFTERNOON WED WE SHOULD SOME FAIR
WEATHER CU OVER THE CENTRAL DESERTS...WITH SKIES MOSTLY SUNNY FROM
PHOENIX WESTWARD. WE WILL CALL FOR A SLIGHT CHANCE OF LINGERING
SHOWERS ACROSS ZONE 24 WITH THE THREAT ENDING BY EARLY EVENING
WEDNESDAY. HIGH TEMPS WILL CLIMB A FEW DEGREES AS THE AIRMASS WARMS
UP A BIT...BUT READINGS WILL REMAIN BELOW SEASONAL NORMALS.

THURSDAY...
A DRYING AND SUBSIDENT NORTHERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL SET UP ACROSS THE
AREA AS HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT STARTS TO BUILD ALONG THE CA COAST. THIS
WILL LEAD TO SUNNY SKIES...AND CONTINUED WARMING WITH HIGH TEMPS
REACHING INTO THE LOW TO MID 70S...AND TOWARDS SEASONAL NORMALS.

FRIDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...
A WARMING TREND IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THIS PERIOD UNDER
MAINLY CLEAR SKIES AS HIGH PRESSURE STRENGTHENS OVER THE
REGION...WITH A GOOD CHANCE FOR HIGHS NEAR 80 ACROSS THE LOWER
DESERTS BY THE WEEKEND...AND EVEN INTO THE MID 80S BY NEXT TUESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...
SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA INCLUDING KPHX...KIWA AND KSDL...
PLENTY OF LOW-LEVEL AND BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE REMAINS OVER THE
AREA AND WILL RESULT IN CONTINUED DEVELOPMENT OF CONGESTED CU FIELDS
THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING. UPPER TROUGH AXIS IS ALSO STILL MOVING
THROUGH THE AREA AND WILL ALLOW FOR SHOWER DEVELOPMENT TO POP-UP FOR
THE EVENING. ADDED VCSH MENTION FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE MIDDAY/AFTN
HOURS IN FOR THE PHX TERMINALS. WINDS WILL EVENTUALLY TRANSITION TO
AFTN SOUTHWEST-WEST HEADINGS WITH GNLY LIGHT SPEEDS. MORE ERRATIC
WINDS WITH LOCALIZED GUSTINESS WILL BE POSSIBLE DUE TO
VICINITY/PASSING SHOWERS AND ALONG WITH VERY SHORT WINDOWS OF VSBY
RESTRICTION/LOWERED CIGS.

BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE WILL REMAIN SOMEWHAT ELEVATED OVERNIGHT...SO
THERE IS A REMOTE POSSIBILITY OF PATCHY FOG IN THE AM. SOME DRYING
ACROSS THE PHX AREA THIS AFTERNOON SHOULD HELP KEEP THE CROSSOVER
TEMPERATURE AT KPHX AWAY FROM CRITICAL FOG THRESHOLDS FOR WED AM.
LOCAL SREF GUIDANCE HAS REMOTE CHANCES FOR REDUCED VSBYS AGAIN IN
THE AM. WILL HOLD OFF ANY RESTRICTIONS OR BR/FG INCLUSION IN TAFS
ATTM AS UNCERTAINTY IT HIGH FOR A TWO-MORNING-IN-A-ROW EVENT.

SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA AND SOUTHWEST ARIZONA INCLUDING KIPL AND KBLH...
NO AVIATION CONCERNS THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING WITH JUST OCCASIONAL
HIGH CLOUDS AND A FEW AFTERNOON CU TO DEAL WITH. SFC WINDS WILL
GENERALLY FAVOR A NORTHWEST DIRECTION...HOWEVER THE WEAK PRESSURE
GRADIENT MAY ALLOW EXTENDED PERIODS OF VARIABLE DIRECTION WITH
SPEEDS AOB 6 KT.

AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDED TAFS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY...
STRONG HIGH PRESSURE WILL PROVIDE SEASONABLY WARM AND DRY CONDITIONS
TO THE DISTRICT DURING THE END OF OF THIS WEEK INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
WITH TEMPERATURES SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL...AFTERNOON HUMIDITY LEVELS
WILL REGULARLY FALL INTO A 15 TO 25 PERCENT RANGE WITH GOOD
OVERNIGHT RECOVERY. WINDS WILL FAVOR A NORTH TO NORTHEAST TRAJECTORY
THROUGH THE PERIOD...WITH SOME OCCASIONAL GUSTINESS OVER RIDGE TOPS
BUT ALL IN ALL VERY TYPICAL SPEEDS. OVERALL...FIRE DANGER WILL BE
LIMITED DURING THIS TIME FRAME.

&&

.PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

AZ...NONE.

CA...NONE.

&&

$$

VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/PHOENIX

DISCUSSION...PERCHA/CB
AVIATION...NOLTE/MO
FIRE WEATHER...MO


















000
FXUS65 KPSR 032020
AFDPSR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PHOENIX AZ
120 PM MST TUE MAR 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE...THAT WILL BE MOVING SLOWLY SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE
REGION...WILL KEEP THE WEATHER RATHER UNSETTLED AND COOL THROUGH
WEDNESDAY. A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS...AND EVEN A FEW THUNDERSTORMS
CAN BE EXPECTED OVER SOUTH CENTRAL ARIZONA THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING.
A RETURN TO ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES IS LIKELY BY THURSDAY...INTO
THE WEEKEND AS HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM BUILDS OVER THE DESERT
SOUTHWEST.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE TROF OVER THE DESERT SOUTHWEST...EXTENDING
SOUTHWESTWARD TO A POSITION JUST OFF THE CENTRAL BAJA CA
COAST...CONTINUED TO PUSH SLOWLY EAST-SOUTHEAST THIS AFTERNOON WITH
THE TROF AXIS STARTING TO PUSH INTO FAR WESTERN ARIZONA. LINGERING
BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE...WITH SURFACE DEWPOINTS ACROSS THE CENTRAL
DESERTS IN THE 40S...COMBINED WITH COOL AIR ALOFT TO ALLOW FOR
SIGNIFICANT CUMULUS DEVELOPMENT OVER THE LOWER DESERTS EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON. DYNAMICS WILL BE RATHER WEAK BUT THERE WILL CERTAINLY BE
A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR INSTABILITY SHOWERS OR EVEN A WEAK THUNDERSTORM
FOR THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON AND INTO THE EVENING HOURS FOR MOST
AREAS TO THE EAST OF THE LOWER COLORADO RIVER VALLEY. IN
FACT...RADAR AT 1 PM SHOWED ISOLATED SHOWERS MOVING ACROSS THE
CENTRAL DESERTS...AND ONE PUNY SHOWER ACTALLY PRODUCED BRIEF HEAVY
RAIN AT SKY HARBOR AIRPORT.

BY WEDNESDAY MORNING THE TROF AXIS IS FORECAST TO PUSH EAST OF THE
GREATER PHOENIX AREA ALLOWING FOR A DRIER AND MORE SUBSIDENT
NLY/NWLY FLOW ALOFT TO OVERSPREAD THE CENTRAL DESERTS AND CONFINE
ANY THREAT FOR SHOWERS OR STORMS TO THE HIGHER TERRAIN AREAS EAST OF
PHOENIX. WITH BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE REMAINING ELEVATED WEDNESDAY
MORNING...AND SIGNIFICANT CLEARING EXPECTED BY SUNRISE...THERE WILL
AGAIN BE THE POTENTIAL FOR FOG DEVELOPMENT. WE EXPECT LESS AREAL
COVERAGE OF THE FOG AND IT SHOULD NOT BE AS DENSE AS WHAT OCCURRED
THIS MORNING...BUT WE WILL MENTION PATCHY FOG FOR WED MORNING FROM
MARICOPA COUNTY EASTWARD. BY AFTERNOON WED WE SHOULD SOME FAIR
WEATHER CU OVER THE CENTRAL DESERTS...WITH SKIES MOSTLY SUNNY FROM
PHOENIX WESTWARD. WE WILL CALL FOR A SLIGHT CHANCE OF LINGERING
SHOWERS ACROSS ZONE 24 WITH THE THREAT ENDING BY EARLY EVENING
WEDNESDAY. HIGH TEMPS WILL CLIMB A FEW DEGREES AS THE AIRMASS WARMS
UP A BIT...BUT READINGS WILL REMAIN BELOW SEASONAL NORMALS.

THURSDAY...
A DRYING AND SUBSIDENT NORTHERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL SET UP ACROSS THE
AREA AS HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT STARTS TO BUILD ALONG THE CA COAST. THIS
WILL LEAD TO SUNNY SKIES...AND CONTINUED WARMING WITH HIGH TEMPS
REACHING INTO THE LOW TO MID 70S...AND TOWARDS SEASONAL NORMALS.

FRIDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...
A WARMING TREND IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THIS PERIOD UNDER
MAINLY CLEAR SKIES AS HIGH PRESSURE STRENGTHENS OVER THE
REGION...WITH A GOOD CHANCE FOR HIGHS NEAR 80 ACROSS THE LOWER
DESERTS BY THE WEEKEND...AND EVEN INTO THE MID 80S BY NEXT TUESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...
SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA INCLUDING KPHX...KIWA AND KSDL...
PLENTY OF LOW-LEVEL AND BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE REMAINS OVER THE
AREA AND WILL RESULT IN CONTINUED DEVELOPMENT OF CONGESTED CU FIELDS
THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING. UPPER TROUGH AXIS IS ALSO STILL MOVING
THROUGH THE AREA AND WILL ALLOW FOR SHOWER DEVELOPMENT TO POP-UP FOR
THE EVENING. ADDED VCSH MENTION FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE MIDDAY/AFTN
HOURS IN FOR THE PHX TERMINALS. WINDS WILL EVENTUALLY TRANSITION TO
AFTN SOUTHWEST-WEST HEADINGS WITH GNLY LIGHT SPEEDS. MORE ERRATIC
WINDS WITH LOCALIZED GUSTINESS WILL BE POSSIBLE DUE TO
VICINITY/PASSING SHOWERS AND ALONG WITH VERY SHORT WINDOWS OF VSBY
RESTRICTION/LOWERED CIGS.

BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE WILL REMAIN SOMEWHAT ELEVATED OVERNIGHT...SO
THERE IS A REMOTE POSSIBILITY OF PATCHY FOG IN THE AM. SOME DRYING
ACROSS THE PHX AREA THIS AFTERNOON SHOULD HELP KEEP THE CROSSOVER
TEMPERATURE AT KPHX AWAY FROM CRITICAL FOG THRESHOLDS FOR WED AM.
LOCAL SREF GUIDANCE HAS REMOTE CHANCES FOR REDUCED VSBYS AGAIN IN
THE AM. WILL HOLD OFF ANY RESTRICTIONS OR BR/FG INCLUSION IN TAFS
ATTM AS UNCERTAINTY IT HIGH FOR A TWO-MORNING-IN-A-ROW EVENT.

SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA AND SOUTHWEST ARIZONA INCLUDING KIPL AND KBLH...
NO AVIATION CONCERNS THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING WITH JUST OCCASIONAL
HIGH CLOUDS AND A FEW AFTERNOON CU TO DEAL WITH. SFC WINDS WILL
GENERALLY FAVOR A NORTHWEST DIRECTION...HOWEVER THE WEAK PRESSURE
GRADIENT MAY ALLOW EXTENDED PERIODS OF VARIABLE DIRECTION WITH
SPEEDS AOB 6 KT.

AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDED TAFS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY...
STRONG HIGH PRESSURE WILL PROVIDE SEASONABLY WARM AND DRY CONDITIONS
TO THE DISTRICT DURING THE END OF OF THIS WEEK INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
WITH TEMPERATURES SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL...AFTERNOON HUMIDITY LEVELS
WILL REGULARLY FALL INTO A 15 TO 25 PERCENT RANGE WITH GOOD
OVERNIGHT RECOVERY. WINDS WILL FAVOR A NORTH TO NORTHEAST TRAJECTORY
THROUGH THE PERIOD...WITH SOME OCCASIONAL GUSTINESS OVER RIDGE TOPS
BUT ALL IN ALL VERY TYPICAL SPEEDS. OVERALL...FIRE DANGER WILL BE
LIMITED DURING THIS TIME FRAME.

&&

.PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

AZ...NONE.

CA...NONE.

&&

$$

VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/PHOENIX

DISCUSSION...PERCHA/CB
AVIATION...NOLTE/MO
FIRE WEATHER...MO


















000
FXUS65 KPSR 032020
AFDPSR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PHOENIX AZ
120 PM MST TUE MAR 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE...THAT WILL BE MOVING SLOWLY SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE
REGION...WILL KEEP THE WEATHER RATHER UNSETTLED AND COOL THROUGH
WEDNESDAY. A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS...AND EVEN A FEW THUNDERSTORMS
CAN BE EXPECTED OVER SOUTH CENTRAL ARIZONA THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING.
A RETURN TO ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES IS LIKELY BY THURSDAY...INTO
THE WEEKEND AS HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM BUILDS OVER THE DESERT
SOUTHWEST.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE TROF OVER THE DESERT SOUTHWEST...EXTENDING
SOUTHWESTWARD TO A POSITION JUST OFF THE CENTRAL BAJA CA
COAST...CONTINUED TO PUSH SLOWLY EAST-SOUTHEAST THIS AFTERNOON WITH
THE TROF AXIS STARTING TO PUSH INTO FAR WESTERN ARIZONA. LINGERING
BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE...WITH SURFACE DEWPOINTS ACROSS THE CENTRAL
DESERTS IN THE 40S...COMBINED WITH COOL AIR ALOFT TO ALLOW FOR
SIGNIFICANT CUMULUS DEVELOPMENT OVER THE LOWER DESERTS EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON. DYNAMICS WILL BE RATHER WEAK BUT THERE WILL CERTAINLY BE
A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR INSTABILITY SHOWERS OR EVEN A WEAK THUNDERSTORM
FOR THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON AND INTO THE EVENING HOURS FOR MOST
AREAS TO THE EAST OF THE LOWER COLORADO RIVER VALLEY. IN
FACT...RADAR AT 1 PM SHOWED ISOLATED SHOWERS MOVING ACROSS THE
CENTRAL DESERTS...AND ONE PUNY SHOWER ACTALLY PRODUCED BRIEF HEAVY
RAIN AT SKY HARBOR AIRPORT.

BY WEDNESDAY MORNING THE TROF AXIS IS FORECAST TO PUSH EAST OF THE
GREATER PHOENIX AREA ALLOWING FOR A DRIER AND MORE SUBSIDENT
NLY/NWLY FLOW ALOFT TO OVERSPREAD THE CENTRAL DESERTS AND CONFINE
ANY THREAT FOR SHOWERS OR STORMS TO THE HIGHER TERRAIN AREAS EAST OF
PHOENIX. WITH BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE REMAINING ELEVATED WEDNESDAY
MORNING...AND SIGNIFICANT CLEARING EXPECTED BY SUNRISE...THERE WILL
AGAIN BE THE POTENTIAL FOR FOG DEVELOPMENT. WE EXPECT LESS AREAL
COVERAGE OF THE FOG AND IT SHOULD NOT BE AS DENSE AS WHAT OCCURRED
THIS MORNING...BUT WE WILL MENTION PATCHY FOG FOR WED MORNING FROM
MARICOPA COUNTY EASTWARD. BY AFTERNOON WED WE SHOULD SOME FAIR
WEATHER CU OVER THE CENTRAL DESERTS...WITH SKIES MOSTLY SUNNY FROM
PHOENIX WESTWARD. WE WILL CALL FOR A SLIGHT CHANCE OF LINGERING
SHOWERS ACROSS ZONE 24 WITH THE THREAT ENDING BY EARLY EVENING
WEDNESDAY. HIGH TEMPS WILL CLIMB A FEW DEGREES AS THE AIRMASS WARMS
UP A BIT...BUT READINGS WILL REMAIN BELOW SEASONAL NORMALS.

THURSDAY...
A DRYING AND SUBSIDENT NORTHERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL SET UP ACROSS THE
AREA AS HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT STARTS TO BUILD ALONG THE CA COAST. THIS
WILL LEAD TO SUNNY SKIES...AND CONTINUED WARMING WITH HIGH TEMPS
REACHING INTO THE LOW TO MID 70S...AND TOWARDS SEASONAL NORMALS.

FRIDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...
A WARMING TREND IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THIS PERIOD UNDER
MAINLY CLEAR SKIES AS HIGH PRESSURE STRENGTHENS OVER THE
REGION...WITH A GOOD CHANCE FOR HIGHS NEAR 80 ACROSS THE LOWER
DESERTS BY THE WEEKEND...AND EVEN INTO THE MID 80S BY NEXT TUESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...
SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA INCLUDING KPHX...KIWA AND KSDL...
PLENTY OF LOW-LEVEL AND BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE REMAINS OVER THE
AREA AND WILL RESULT IN CONTINUED DEVELOPMENT OF CONGESTED CU FIELDS
THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING. UPPER TROUGH AXIS IS ALSO STILL MOVING
THROUGH THE AREA AND WILL ALLOW FOR SHOWER DEVELOPMENT TO POP-UP FOR
THE EVENING. ADDED VCSH MENTION FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE MIDDAY/AFTN
HOURS IN FOR THE PHX TERMINALS. WINDS WILL EVENTUALLY TRANSITION TO
AFTN SOUTHWEST-WEST HEADINGS WITH GNLY LIGHT SPEEDS. MORE ERRATIC
WINDS WITH LOCALIZED GUSTINESS WILL BE POSSIBLE DUE TO
VICINITY/PASSING SHOWERS AND ALONG WITH VERY SHORT WINDOWS OF VSBY
RESTRICTION/LOWERED CIGS.

BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE WILL REMAIN SOMEWHAT ELEVATED OVERNIGHT...SO
THERE IS A REMOTE POSSIBILITY OF PATCHY FOG IN THE AM. SOME DRYING
ACROSS THE PHX AREA THIS AFTERNOON SHOULD HELP KEEP THE CROSSOVER
TEMPERATURE AT KPHX AWAY FROM CRITICAL FOG THRESHOLDS FOR WED AM.
LOCAL SREF GUIDANCE HAS REMOTE CHANCES FOR REDUCED VSBYS AGAIN IN
THE AM. WILL HOLD OFF ANY RESTRICTIONS OR BR/FG INCLUSION IN TAFS
ATTM AS UNCERTAINTY IT HIGH FOR A TWO-MORNING-IN-A-ROW EVENT.

SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA AND SOUTHWEST ARIZONA INCLUDING KIPL AND KBLH...
NO AVIATION CONCERNS THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING WITH JUST OCCASIONAL
HIGH CLOUDS AND A FEW AFTERNOON CU TO DEAL WITH. SFC WINDS WILL
GENERALLY FAVOR A NORTHWEST DIRECTION...HOWEVER THE WEAK PRESSURE
GRADIENT MAY ALLOW EXTENDED PERIODS OF VARIABLE DIRECTION WITH
SPEEDS AOB 6 KT.

AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDED TAFS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY...
STRONG HIGH PRESSURE WILL PROVIDE SEASONABLY WARM AND DRY CONDITIONS
TO THE DISTRICT DURING THE END OF OF THIS WEEK INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
WITH TEMPERATURES SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL...AFTERNOON HUMIDITY LEVELS
WILL REGULARLY FALL INTO A 15 TO 25 PERCENT RANGE WITH GOOD
OVERNIGHT RECOVERY. WINDS WILL FAVOR A NORTH TO NORTHEAST TRAJECTORY
THROUGH THE PERIOD...WITH SOME OCCASIONAL GUSTINESS OVER RIDGE TOPS
BUT ALL IN ALL VERY TYPICAL SPEEDS. OVERALL...FIRE DANGER WILL BE
LIMITED DURING THIS TIME FRAME.

&&

.PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

AZ...NONE.

CA...NONE.

&&

$$

VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/PHOENIX

DISCUSSION...PERCHA/CB
AVIATION...NOLTE/MO
FIRE WEATHER...MO



















000
FXUS65 KPSR 031959
AFDPSR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PHOENIX AZ
1258 PM MST TUE MAR 3 2015

.UPDATE...TO AVIATION DISCUSSION.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE...THAT WILL BE MOVING SLOWLY SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE
REGION...WILL KEEP THE WEATHER RATHER UNSETTLED AND COOL THROUGH
WEDNESDAY. A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS...AND EVEN A FEW THUNDERSTORMS
CAN BE EXPECTED OVER SOUTH CENTRAL ARIZONA THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING.
A RETURN TO ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES IS LIKELY BY THURSDAY...INTO
THE WEEKEND AS HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM BUILDS OVER THE DESERT
SOUTHWEST.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
INTERESTING WEATHER THIS MORNING AS PATCHY DENSE FOG DEVELOPED
ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE GREATER PHOENIX METROPOLITAN AREA...AND MUCH
OF NORTHWEST PINAL COUNTY. A TROF OF LOW PRESSURE CONTINUED TO SAG
SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE DESERT SOUTHWEST WITH THE TROF AXIS RUNNING
NE-SW ACROSS FAR SERN CA/SRN NEVADA. ORIENTATION OF THE TROF PLACED
A WEAK SWLY FLOW ACROSS THE LOWER DESERTS WHICH CONTINUED TO ADVECT
IN MODEST AMOUNTS OF MOISTURE. OVERALL MOISTURE VALUES ARE LESS THAN
24 HOURS AGO...WITH PWAT VALUES RUNNING AROUND ONE HALF INCH...BUT
THE BOUNDARY LAYER REMAINS QUITE MOIST. SURFACE DEWPOINTS ACROSS THE
CENTRAL DESERTS WERE RUNNING IN THE MID TO UPPER 40S AT 9 AM. SOME
UNEXPECTED CLEARING EARLY THIS MORNING ALLOWED SURFACE TEMPS TO FALL
OFF AND REACH THE CROSSOVER TEMPERATURE AND AS SUCH PATCHY DENSE FOG
DEVELOPED IN THE GREATER PHOENIX AREA...DROPPING VIS AT SKY HARBOR
TO 1/4 MILE. OTHER AREAS...NEAR SOUTH MOUNTAIN...ALONG INTERSTATE 8
AND THE SALT RIVER BED...AND ESPECIALLY SOUTHEAST OF THE VALLEY IN
CASA GRANDE...SAW LOCALLY DENSE FOG WITH VIS VALUES DOWN AT OR BELOW
1/4 MILE. WE ISSUED A DENSE FOG ADVISORY FOR ZONE 28 EFFECTIVE UNTIL
10 AM.

FOR THE REST OF TODAY...THE FOG WILL GRADUALLY ERODE UNDER THE
INFLUENCE OF INCREASING SUN/MIXING...AND WE WILL SEE PARTLY CLOUDY
SKIES THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. AS THE TROF AXIS SLOWLY MOVES IN FROM
THE WEST TODAY AND THIS EVENING THERE WILL BE SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY
TO ALLOW FOR A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS OR AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS.
DYNAMICS ARE RATHER WEAK...AS THE WIND FIELDS ASSOCIATED WITH THE
PASSING TROF ARE NOT VERY IMPRESSIVE...SO ANY STORM THAT DEVELOPS
WILL BE ON THE WEAK SIDE AS WELL. FORECASTS HAVE BEEN TWEAKED FOR
CURRENT SKY AND WEATHER TRENDS AND ARE IN GOOD SHAPE FOR NOW.

.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...
AFTER A RATHER WET AND COOL MONDAY...WITH SOME OF THE MOST FAVORED
AREAS ACROSS NORTHERN MARICOPA COUNTY SEEING UP TO AN INCH OF
RAIN...TODAY LOOKS LIKE IT WILL BE A QUIETER ONE...AS THE UPPER TROF
THAT BROUGHT US ALL THE RAIN AND CLOUDS HAS NOW MOVED OFF WELL TO
OUR EAST...INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS.

HOWEVER...THE WEATHER TODAY AND TONIGHT STILL LOOKS LIKE IT WILL BE
RATHER UNSETTLED...WITH ISOLATED-TO-SCATTERED SHOWERS TO CONTINUE
OVER SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA...ESPECIALLY OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN
NORTH AND EAST OF PHOENIX. THIS CONTINUATION OF SHOWER CHANCES IS
DUE TO A COMBINATION OF MOIST SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT THAT IS BEING
GENERATED BY ANOTHER UPPER LOW CENTER THAT IS NOW POSITIONED OFF THE
SOUTHERN CA COAST THIS MORNING...AND A COUPLE OF WEAK SHORTWAVES
THAT WILL BE DROPPING SOUTHWARD ACROSS AZ AS THE STRONG LONG-WAVE
UPPER TROF THEY ARE EMBEDDED IN MOVES SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE
CENTRAL ROCKIES INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS. ALTHOUGH MOISTURE LEVELS
THROUGH THE COLUMN LOOK TO BE RATHER LIMITED...WITH PWATS IN THE
0.50-0.60 INCH RANGE...THERE APPEARS THAT THERE WILL BE ENOUGH
DYNAMICS/INSTABILITY TO TRIGGER LIGHT SHOWERS...AND EVEN ONE OR TWO
THUNDERSTORMS TODAY AND TONIGHT AS THE SHORTWAVES PASS ACROSS THE
REGION...WITH PERHAPS A TENTH OF AN INCH OR SO OF RAIN FALLING FROM
THE HEAVIER SHOWERS...AND EVEN A DUSTING OF SNOW OVER OUR HIGHEST
PEAKS. TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW NORMAL TODAY...WITH
850MB TEMPERATURES AROUND 5C KEEPING LOWER DESERT HIGHS DOWN IN THE
60S AND LOW 70S...IN SPITE OF CONSIDERABLE SUNSHINE. THE CHANCES FOR
PRECIP WILL PRETTY MUCH END BY MIDDAY ON WEDNESDAY AS THE UPPER LOW
THAT IS NOW OFF THE SOUTHERN CA COAST MOVES OFF WELL TO OUR SOUTH
AND EAST...CUTTING OFF THE MOISTURE FEED FROM THE PACIFIC...AND
RIDGING BEGINS TO BUILD IN FROM THE WEST BEHIND THE MAIN LONG-WAVE
TROF.

THURSDAY...

A DRYING AND SUBSIDENT NORTHERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL SET
UP ACROSS THE AREA AS HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT STARTS TO BUILD ALONG THE
CA COAST. THIS WILL LEAD TO SUNNY SKIES...AND CONTINUED WARMING
WITH HIGH TEMPS REACHING INTO THE LOW TO MID 70S...AND TOWARDS
SEASONAL NORMALS.

FRIDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...
A WARMING TREND IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THIS PERIOD UNDER
MAINLY CLEAR SKIES AS HIGH PRESSURE STRENGTHENS OVER THE
REGION...WITH A GOOD CHANCE FOR HIGHS NEAR 80 ACROSS THE LOWER
DESERTS BY THE WEEKEND...AND EVEN INTO THE MID 80S BY NEXT TUESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...
SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA INCLUDING KPHX...KIWA AND KSDL...
PLENTY OF LOW-LEVEL AND BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE REMAINS OVER THE
AREA AND WILL RESULT IN CONTINUED DEVELOPMENT OF CONGESTED CU FIELDS
THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING. UPPER TROUGH AXIS IS ALSO STILL MOVING
THROUGH THE AREA AND WILL ALLOW FOR SHOWER DEVELOPMENT TO POP-UP FOR
THE EVENING. ADDED VCSH MENTION FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE MIDDAY/AFTN
HOURS IN FOR THE PHX TERMINALS. WINDS WILL EVENTUALLY TRANSITION TO
AFTN SOUTHWEST-WEST HEADINGS WITH GNLY LIGHT SPEEDS. MORE ERRATIC
WINDS WITH LOCALIZED GUSTINESS WILL BE POSSIBLE DUE TO
VICINITY/PASSING SHOWERS AND ALONG WITH VERY SHORT WINDOWS OF VSBY
RESTRICTION/LOWERED CIGS.

BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE WILL REMAIN SOMEWHAT ELEVATED OVERNIGHT...SO
THERE IS A REMOTE POSSIBILITY OF PATCHY FOG IN THE AM. SOME DRYING
ACROSS THE PHX AREA THIS AFTERNOON SHOULD HELP KEEP THE CROSSOVER
TEMPERATURE AT KPHX AWAY FROM CRITICAL FOG THRESHOLDS FOR WED AM.
LOCAL SREF GUIDANCE HAS REMOTE CHANCES FOR REDUCED VSBYS AGAIN IN
THE AM. WILL HOLD OFF ANY RESTRICTIONS OR BR/FG INCLUSION IN TAFS
ATTM AS UNCERTAINTY IT HIGH FOR A TWO-MORNING-IN-A-ROW EVENT.

SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA AND SOUTHWEST ARIZONA INCLUDING KIPL AND KBLH...
NO AVIATION CONCERNS THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING WITH JUST OCCASIONAL
HIGH CLOUDS AND A FEW AFTERNOON CU TO DEAL WITH. SFC WINDS WILL
GENERALLY FAVOR A NORTHWEST DIRECTION...HOWEVER THE WEAK PRESSURE
GRADIENT MAY ALLOW EXTENDED PERIODS OF VARIABLE DIRECTION WITH
SPEEDS AOB 6 KT.

AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDED TAFS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY...
STRONG HIGH PRESSURE WILL PROVIDE SEASONABLY WARM AND DRY CONDITIONS
TO THE DISTRICT DURING THE END OF OF THIS WEEK INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
WITH TEMPERATURES SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL...AFTERNOON HUMIDITY LEVELS
WILL REGULARLY FALL INTO A 15 TO 25 PERCENT RANGE WITH GOOD
OVERNIGHT RECOVERY. WINDS WILL FAVOR A NORTH TO NORTHEAST TRAJECTORY
THROUGH THE PERIOD...WITH SOME OCCASIONAL GUSTINESS OVER RIDGE TOPS
BUT ALL IN ALL VERY TYPICAL SPEEDS. OVERALL...FIRE DANGER WILL BE
LIMITED DURING THIS TIME FRAME.

&&

.PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

AZ...NONE.

CA...NONE.

&&

$$

VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/PHOENIX

DISCUSSION...PERCHA/CB
AVIATION...NOLTE/MO
FIRE WEATHER...MO
















000
FXUS65 KPSR 031959
AFDPSR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PHOENIX AZ
1258 PM MST TUE MAR 3 2015

.UPDATE...TO AVIATION DISCUSSION.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE...THAT WILL BE MOVING SLOWLY SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE
REGION...WILL KEEP THE WEATHER RATHER UNSETTLED AND COOL THROUGH
WEDNESDAY. A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS...AND EVEN A FEW THUNDERSTORMS
CAN BE EXPECTED OVER SOUTH CENTRAL ARIZONA THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING.
A RETURN TO ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES IS LIKELY BY THURSDAY...INTO
THE WEEKEND AS HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM BUILDS OVER THE DESERT
SOUTHWEST.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
INTERESTING WEATHER THIS MORNING AS PATCHY DENSE FOG DEVELOPED
ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE GREATER PHOENIX METROPOLITAN AREA...AND MUCH
OF NORTHWEST PINAL COUNTY. A TROF OF LOW PRESSURE CONTINUED TO SAG
SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE DESERT SOUTHWEST WITH THE TROF AXIS RUNNING
NE-SW ACROSS FAR SERN CA/SRN NEVADA. ORIENTATION OF THE TROF PLACED
A WEAK SWLY FLOW ACROSS THE LOWER DESERTS WHICH CONTINUED TO ADVECT
IN MODEST AMOUNTS OF MOISTURE. OVERALL MOISTURE VALUES ARE LESS THAN
24 HOURS AGO...WITH PWAT VALUES RUNNING AROUND ONE HALF INCH...BUT
THE BOUNDARY LAYER REMAINS QUITE MOIST. SURFACE DEWPOINTS ACROSS THE
CENTRAL DESERTS WERE RUNNING IN THE MID TO UPPER 40S AT 9 AM. SOME
UNEXPECTED CLEARING EARLY THIS MORNING ALLOWED SURFACE TEMPS TO FALL
OFF AND REACH THE CROSSOVER TEMPERATURE AND AS SUCH PATCHY DENSE FOG
DEVELOPED IN THE GREATER PHOENIX AREA...DROPPING VIS AT SKY HARBOR
TO 1/4 MILE. OTHER AREAS...NEAR SOUTH MOUNTAIN...ALONG INTERSTATE 8
AND THE SALT RIVER BED...AND ESPECIALLY SOUTHEAST OF THE VALLEY IN
CASA GRANDE...SAW LOCALLY DENSE FOG WITH VIS VALUES DOWN AT OR BELOW
1/4 MILE. WE ISSUED A DENSE FOG ADVISORY FOR ZONE 28 EFFECTIVE UNTIL
10 AM.

FOR THE REST OF TODAY...THE FOG WILL GRADUALLY ERODE UNDER THE
INFLUENCE OF INCREASING SUN/MIXING...AND WE WILL SEE PARTLY CLOUDY
SKIES THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. AS THE TROF AXIS SLOWLY MOVES IN FROM
THE WEST TODAY AND THIS EVENING THERE WILL BE SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY
TO ALLOW FOR A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS OR AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS.
DYNAMICS ARE RATHER WEAK...AS THE WIND FIELDS ASSOCIATED WITH THE
PASSING TROF ARE NOT VERY IMPRESSIVE...SO ANY STORM THAT DEVELOPS
WILL BE ON THE WEAK SIDE AS WELL. FORECASTS HAVE BEEN TWEAKED FOR
CURRENT SKY AND WEATHER TRENDS AND ARE IN GOOD SHAPE FOR NOW.

.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...
AFTER A RATHER WET AND COOL MONDAY...WITH SOME OF THE MOST FAVORED
AREAS ACROSS NORTHERN MARICOPA COUNTY SEEING UP TO AN INCH OF
RAIN...TODAY LOOKS LIKE IT WILL BE A QUIETER ONE...AS THE UPPER TROF
THAT BROUGHT US ALL THE RAIN AND CLOUDS HAS NOW MOVED OFF WELL TO
OUR EAST...INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS.

HOWEVER...THE WEATHER TODAY AND TONIGHT STILL LOOKS LIKE IT WILL BE
RATHER UNSETTLED...WITH ISOLATED-TO-SCATTERED SHOWERS TO CONTINUE
OVER SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA...ESPECIALLY OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN
NORTH AND EAST OF PHOENIX. THIS CONTINUATION OF SHOWER CHANCES IS
DUE TO A COMBINATION OF MOIST SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT THAT IS BEING
GENERATED BY ANOTHER UPPER LOW CENTER THAT IS NOW POSITIONED OFF THE
SOUTHERN CA COAST THIS MORNING...AND A COUPLE OF WEAK SHORTWAVES
THAT WILL BE DROPPING SOUTHWARD ACROSS AZ AS THE STRONG LONG-WAVE
UPPER TROF THEY ARE EMBEDDED IN MOVES SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE
CENTRAL ROCKIES INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS. ALTHOUGH MOISTURE LEVELS
THROUGH THE COLUMN LOOK TO BE RATHER LIMITED...WITH PWATS IN THE
0.50-0.60 INCH RANGE...THERE APPEARS THAT THERE WILL BE ENOUGH
DYNAMICS/INSTABILITY TO TRIGGER LIGHT SHOWERS...AND EVEN ONE OR TWO
THUNDERSTORMS TODAY AND TONIGHT AS THE SHORTWAVES PASS ACROSS THE
REGION...WITH PERHAPS A TENTH OF AN INCH OR SO OF RAIN FALLING FROM
THE HEAVIER SHOWERS...AND EVEN A DUSTING OF SNOW OVER OUR HIGHEST
PEAKS. TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW NORMAL TODAY...WITH
850MB TEMPERATURES AROUND 5C KEEPING LOWER DESERT HIGHS DOWN IN THE
60S AND LOW 70S...IN SPITE OF CONSIDERABLE SUNSHINE. THE CHANCES FOR
PRECIP WILL PRETTY MUCH END BY MIDDAY ON WEDNESDAY AS THE UPPER LOW
THAT IS NOW OFF THE SOUTHERN CA COAST MOVES OFF WELL TO OUR SOUTH
AND EAST...CUTTING OFF THE MOISTURE FEED FROM THE PACIFIC...AND
RIDGING BEGINS TO BUILD IN FROM THE WEST BEHIND THE MAIN LONG-WAVE
TROF.

THURSDAY...

A DRYING AND SUBSIDENT NORTHERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL SET
UP ACROSS THE AREA AS HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT STARTS TO BUILD ALONG THE
CA COAST. THIS WILL LEAD TO SUNNY SKIES...AND CONTINUED WARMING
WITH HIGH TEMPS REACHING INTO THE LOW TO MID 70S...AND TOWARDS
SEASONAL NORMALS.

FRIDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...
A WARMING TREND IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THIS PERIOD UNDER
MAINLY CLEAR SKIES AS HIGH PRESSURE STRENGTHENS OVER THE
REGION...WITH A GOOD CHANCE FOR HIGHS NEAR 80 ACROSS THE LOWER
DESERTS BY THE WEEKEND...AND EVEN INTO THE MID 80S BY NEXT TUESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...
SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA INCLUDING KPHX...KIWA AND KSDL...
PLENTY OF LOW-LEVEL AND BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE REMAINS OVER THE
AREA AND WILL RESULT IN CONTINUED DEVELOPMENT OF CONGESTED CU FIELDS
THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING. UPPER TROUGH AXIS IS ALSO STILL MOVING
THROUGH THE AREA AND WILL ALLOW FOR SHOWER DEVELOPMENT TO POP-UP FOR
THE EVENING. ADDED VCSH MENTION FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE MIDDAY/AFTN
HOURS IN FOR THE PHX TERMINALS. WINDS WILL EVENTUALLY TRANSITION TO
AFTN SOUTHWEST-WEST HEADINGS WITH GNLY LIGHT SPEEDS. MORE ERRATIC
WINDS WITH LOCALIZED GUSTINESS WILL BE POSSIBLE DUE TO
VICINITY/PASSING SHOWERS AND ALONG WITH VERY SHORT WINDOWS OF VSBY
RESTRICTION/LOWERED CIGS.

BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE WILL REMAIN SOMEWHAT ELEVATED OVERNIGHT...SO
THERE IS A REMOTE POSSIBILITY OF PATCHY FOG IN THE AM. SOME DRYING
ACROSS THE PHX AREA THIS AFTERNOON SHOULD HELP KEEP THE CROSSOVER
TEMPERATURE AT KPHX AWAY FROM CRITICAL FOG THRESHOLDS FOR WED AM.
LOCAL SREF GUIDANCE HAS REMOTE CHANCES FOR REDUCED VSBYS AGAIN IN
THE AM. WILL HOLD OFF ANY RESTRICTIONS OR BR/FG INCLUSION IN TAFS
ATTM AS UNCERTAINTY IT HIGH FOR A TWO-MORNING-IN-A-ROW EVENT.

SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA AND SOUTHWEST ARIZONA INCLUDING KIPL AND KBLH...
NO AVIATION CONCERNS THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING WITH JUST OCCASIONAL
HIGH CLOUDS AND A FEW AFTERNOON CU TO DEAL WITH. SFC WINDS WILL
GENERALLY FAVOR A NORTHWEST DIRECTION...HOWEVER THE WEAK PRESSURE
GRADIENT MAY ALLOW EXTENDED PERIODS OF VARIABLE DIRECTION WITH
SPEEDS AOB 6 KT.

AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDED TAFS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY...
STRONG HIGH PRESSURE WILL PROVIDE SEASONABLY WARM AND DRY CONDITIONS
TO THE DISTRICT DURING THE END OF OF THIS WEEK INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
WITH TEMPERATURES SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL...AFTERNOON HUMIDITY LEVELS
WILL REGULARLY FALL INTO A 15 TO 25 PERCENT RANGE WITH GOOD
OVERNIGHT RECOVERY. WINDS WILL FAVOR A NORTH TO NORTHEAST TRAJECTORY
THROUGH THE PERIOD...WITH SOME OCCASIONAL GUSTINESS OVER RIDGE TOPS
BUT ALL IN ALL VERY TYPICAL SPEEDS. OVERALL...FIRE DANGER WILL BE
LIMITED DURING THIS TIME FRAME.

&&

.PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

AZ...NONE.

CA...NONE.

&&

$$

VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/PHOENIX

DISCUSSION...PERCHA/CB
AVIATION...NOLTE/MO
FIRE WEATHER...MO















000
FXUS65 KPSR 031959
AFDPSR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PHOENIX AZ
1258 PM MST TUE MAR 3 2015

.UPDATE...TO AVIATION DISCUSSION.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE...THAT WILL BE MOVING SLOWLY SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE
REGION...WILL KEEP THE WEATHER RATHER UNSETTLED AND COOL THROUGH
WEDNESDAY. A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS...AND EVEN A FEW THUNDERSTORMS
CAN BE EXPECTED OVER SOUTH CENTRAL ARIZONA THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING.
A RETURN TO ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES IS LIKELY BY THURSDAY...INTO
THE WEEKEND AS HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM BUILDS OVER THE DESERT
SOUTHWEST.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
INTERESTING WEATHER THIS MORNING AS PATCHY DENSE FOG DEVELOPED
ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE GREATER PHOENIX METROPOLITAN AREA...AND MUCH
OF NORTHWEST PINAL COUNTY. A TROF OF LOW PRESSURE CONTINUED TO SAG
SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE DESERT SOUTHWEST WITH THE TROF AXIS RUNNING
NE-SW ACROSS FAR SERN CA/SRN NEVADA. ORIENTATION OF THE TROF PLACED
A WEAK SWLY FLOW ACROSS THE LOWER DESERTS WHICH CONTINUED TO ADVECT
IN MODEST AMOUNTS OF MOISTURE. OVERALL MOISTURE VALUES ARE LESS THAN
24 HOURS AGO...WITH PWAT VALUES RUNNING AROUND ONE HALF INCH...BUT
THE BOUNDARY LAYER REMAINS QUITE MOIST. SURFACE DEWPOINTS ACROSS THE
CENTRAL DESERTS WERE RUNNING IN THE MID TO UPPER 40S AT 9 AM. SOME
UNEXPECTED CLEARING EARLY THIS MORNING ALLOWED SURFACE TEMPS TO FALL
OFF AND REACH THE CROSSOVER TEMPERATURE AND AS SUCH PATCHY DENSE FOG
DEVELOPED IN THE GREATER PHOENIX AREA...DROPPING VIS AT SKY HARBOR
TO 1/4 MILE. OTHER AREAS...NEAR SOUTH MOUNTAIN...ALONG INTERSTATE 8
AND THE SALT RIVER BED...AND ESPECIALLY SOUTHEAST OF THE VALLEY IN
CASA GRANDE...SAW LOCALLY DENSE FOG WITH VIS VALUES DOWN AT OR BELOW
1/4 MILE. WE ISSUED A DENSE FOG ADVISORY FOR ZONE 28 EFFECTIVE UNTIL
10 AM.

FOR THE REST OF TODAY...THE FOG WILL GRADUALLY ERODE UNDER THE
INFLUENCE OF INCREASING SUN/MIXING...AND WE WILL SEE PARTLY CLOUDY
SKIES THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. AS THE TROF AXIS SLOWLY MOVES IN FROM
THE WEST TODAY AND THIS EVENING THERE WILL BE SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY
TO ALLOW FOR A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS OR AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS.
DYNAMICS ARE RATHER WEAK...AS THE WIND FIELDS ASSOCIATED WITH THE
PASSING TROF ARE NOT VERY IMPRESSIVE...SO ANY STORM THAT DEVELOPS
WILL BE ON THE WEAK SIDE AS WELL. FORECASTS HAVE BEEN TWEAKED FOR
CURRENT SKY AND WEATHER TRENDS AND ARE IN GOOD SHAPE FOR NOW.

.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...
AFTER A RATHER WET AND COOL MONDAY...WITH SOME OF THE MOST FAVORED
AREAS ACROSS NORTHERN MARICOPA COUNTY SEEING UP TO AN INCH OF
RAIN...TODAY LOOKS LIKE IT WILL BE A QUIETER ONE...AS THE UPPER TROF
THAT BROUGHT US ALL THE RAIN AND CLOUDS HAS NOW MOVED OFF WELL TO
OUR EAST...INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS.

HOWEVER...THE WEATHER TODAY AND TONIGHT STILL LOOKS LIKE IT WILL BE
RATHER UNSETTLED...WITH ISOLATED-TO-SCATTERED SHOWERS TO CONTINUE
OVER SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA...ESPECIALLY OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN
NORTH AND EAST OF PHOENIX. THIS CONTINUATION OF SHOWER CHANCES IS
DUE TO A COMBINATION OF MOIST SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT THAT IS BEING
GENERATED BY ANOTHER UPPER LOW CENTER THAT IS NOW POSITIONED OFF THE
SOUTHERN CA COAST THIS MORNING...AND A COUPLE OF WEAK SHORTWAVES
THAT WILL BE DROPPING SOUTHWARD ACROSS AZ AS THE STRONG LONG-WAVE
UPPER TROF THEY ARE EMBEDDED IN MOVES SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE
CENTRAL ROCKIES INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS. ALTHOUGH MOISTURE LEVELS
THROUGH THE COLUMN LOOK TO BE RATHER LIMITED...WITH PWATS IN THE
0.50-0.60 INCH RANGE...THERE APPEARS THAT THERE WILL BE ENOUGH
DYNAMICS/INSTABILITY TO TRIGGER LIGHT SHOWERS...AND EVEN ONE OR TWO
THUNDERSTORMS TODAY AND TONIGHT AS THE SHORTWAVES PASS ACROSS THE
REGION...WITH PERHAPS A TENTH OF AN INCH OR SO OF RAIN FALLING FROM
THE HEAVIER SHOWERS...AND EVEN A DUSTING OF SNOW OVER OUR HIGHEST
PEAKS. TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW NORMAL TODAY...WITH
850MB TEMPERATURES AROUND 5C KEEPING LOWER DESERT HIGHS DOWN IN THE
60S AND LOW 70S...IN SPITE OF CONSIDERABLE SUNSHINE. THE CHANCES FOR
PRECIP WILL PRETTY MUCH END BY MIDDAY ON WEDNESDAY AS THE UPPER LOW
THAT IS NOW OFF THE SOUTHERN CA COAST MOVES OFF WELL TO OUR SOUTH
AND EAST...CUTTING OFF THE MOISTURE FEED FROM THE PACIFIC...AND
RIDGING BEGINS TO BUILD IN FROM THE WEST BEHIND THE MAIN LONG-WAVE
TROF.

THURSDAY...

A DRYING AND SUBSIDENT NORTHERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL SET
UP ACROSS THE AREA AS HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT STARTS TO BUILD ALONG THE
CA COAST. THIS WILL LEAD TO SUNNY SKIES...AND CONTINUED WARMING
WITH HIGH TEMPS REACHING INTO THE LOW TO MID 70S...AND TOWARDS
SEASONAL NORMALS.

FRIDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...
A WARMING TREND IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THIS PERIOD UNDER
MAINLY CLEAR SKIES AS HIGH PRESSURE STRENGTHENS OVER THE
REGION...WITH A GOOD CHANCE FOR HIGHS NEAR 80 ACROSS THE LOWER
DESERTS BY THE WEEKEND...AND EVEN INTO THE MID 80S BY NEXT TUESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...
SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA INCLUDING KPHX...KIWA AND KSDL...
PLENTY OF LOW-LEVEL AND BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE REMAINS OVER THE
AREA AND WILL RESULT IN CONTINUED DEVELOPMENT OF CONGESTED CU FIELDS
THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING. UPPER TROUGH AXIS IS ALSO STILL MOVING
THROUGH THE AREA AND WILL ALLOW FOR SHOWER DEVELOPMENT TO POP-UP FOR
THE EVENING. ADDED VCSH MENTION FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE MIDDAY/AFTN
HOURS IN FOR THE PHX TERMINALS. WINDS WILL EVENTUALLY TRANSITION TO
AFTN SOUTHWEST-WEST HEADINGS WITH GNLY LIGHT SPEEDS. MORE ERRATIC
WINDS WITH LOCALIZED GUSTINESS WILL BE POSSIBLE DUE TO
VICINITY/PASSING SHOWERS AND ALONG WITH VERY SHORT WINDOWS OF VSBY
RESTRICTION/LOWERED CIGS.

BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE WILL REMAIN SOMEWHAT ELEVATED OVERNIGHT...SO
THERE IS A REMOTE POSSIBILITY OF PATCHY FOG IN THE AM. SOME DRYING
ACROSS THE PHX AREA THIS AFTERNOON SHOULD HELP KEEP THE CROSSOVER
TEMPERATURE AT KPHX AWAY FROM CRITICAL FOG THRESHOLDS FOR WED AM.
LOCAL SREF GUIDANCE HAS REMOTE CHANCES FOR REDUCED VSBYS AGAIN IN
THE AM. WILL HOLD OFF ANY RESTRICTIONS OR BR/FG INCLUSION IN TAFS
ATTM AS UNCERTAINTY IT HIGH FOR A TWO-MORNING-IN-A-ROW EVENT.

SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA AND SOUTHWEST ARIZONA INCLUDING KIPL AND KBLH...
NO AVIATION CONCERNS THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING WITH JUST OCCASIONAL
HIGH CLOUDS AND A FEW AFTERNOON CU TO DEAL WITH. SFC WINDS WILL
GENERALLY FAVOR A NORTHWEST DIRECTION...HOWEVER THE WEAK PRESSURE
GRADIENT MAY ALLOW EXTENDED PERIODS OF VARIABLE DIRECTION WITH
SPEEDS AOB 6 KT.

AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDED TAFS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY...
STRONG HIGH PRESSURE WILL PROVIDE SEASONABLY WARM AND DRY CONDITIONS
TO THE DISTRICT DURING THE END OF OF THIS WEEK INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
WITH TEMPERATURES SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL...AFTERNOON HUMIDITY LEVELS
WILL REGULARLY FALL INTO A 15 TO 25 PERCENT RANGE WITH GOOD
OVERNIGHT RECOVERY. WINDS WILL FAVOR A NORTH TO NORTHEAST TRAJECTORY
THROUGH THE PERIOD...WITH SOME OCCASIONAL GUSTINESS OVER RIDGE TOPS
BUT ALL IN ALL VERY TYPICAL SPEEDS. OVERALL...FIRE DANGER WILL BE
LIMITED DURING THIS TIME FRAME.

&&

.PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

AZ...NONE.

CA...NONE.

&&

$$

VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/PHOENIX

DISCUSSION...PERCHA/CB
AVIATION...NOLTE/MO
FIRE WEATHER...MO
















000
FXUS65 KTWC 031632
AFDTWC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ
930 AM MST TUE MAR 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS..A FOLLOW UP SYSTEM WILL MOVE ALONG OR JUST SOUTH OF THE
INTERNATIONAL BORDER TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY AND BRING ANOTHER CHANCE
OF VALLEY RAIN AND MOUNTAIN SNOW...MAINLY NEAR THE INTERNATIONAL
BORDER. DRY CONDITIONS AREAWIDE AND WARMER TEMPERATURES STARTING
THURSDAY INTO THE WEEKEND.

&&

.DISCUSSION...WESTERN EDGE OF PLUME OF MOISTURE THAT IS OVER FAR SE
COCHISE COUNTY THIS MORNING IS SLOWLY MOVING E. VALLEY RAIN/MOUNTAIN
SNOW DOWN THERE HAS SLOWLY BEEN DIMINISHING IN THE PAST COUPLE OF
HOURS. MADE SOME ADJUSTMENTS TO THE FORECAST IN A RECENT UPDATE.

WATER VAPOR IMAGERY THIS MORNING SHOWED AN UPPER LOW OFF NRN BAJA
COAST WHICH IS FURTHER SOUTH VERSUS THE ONE THAT WAS OFF THE SRN CA
COAST ON MONDAY. THIS UPPER LOW WILL DIG A LITTLE FURTHER S THIS
MORNING BEFORE PUTTING ON THE LEFT BLINKER AND HEAD E. FURTHER N
THERE IS AN UPPER LEVEL TROF THAT WILL MOVE THRU THE GREAT BASIN
TODAY WITH BOTH SYSTEMS KINDA PHASING TOGETHER LATER TONIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY. THESE FEATURES WILL BRING ANOTHER CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION
TO THE AREA WITH THE BEST CHANCES BEING ALONG/NEAR THE INTERNATIONAL
BORDER ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW MOVING ACROSS NRN SONORA MEXICO.

&&

.AVIATION...VALID THRU 04/15Z
SCTD CUMULUS DECKS AT 3-6KFT AGL. CLOUDS INCREASING TONIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY MORNING. CHANCE OF SHOWERS RETURNING TO THE AREA TONIGHT
WITH BEST CHANCE BEING ALONG THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER. LIGHT AND
VARIABLE SFC WIND THIS MORNING BECOMING SW AT 10-20 KTS WITH GUSTS
25-30 KTS. AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR TAF AMENDMENTS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...ANOTHER WEATHER SYSTEM WILL IMPACT THE AREA LATE
TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY FOR ANOTHER CHANCE OF SHOWERS ESPECIALLY NEAR
THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER. DRY AND WARMER THURSDAY ONWARD.

&&

.TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...YOUTUBE...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/TUCSON






000
FXUS65 KTWC 031632
AFDTWC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ
930 AM MST TUE MAR 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS..A FOLLOW UP SYSTEM WILL MOVE ALONG OR JUST SOUTH OF THE
INTERNATIONAL BORDER TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY AND BRING ANOTHER CHANCE
OF VALLEY RAIN AND MOUNTAIN SNOW...MAINLY NEAR THE INTERNATIONAL
BORDER. DRY CONDITIONS AREAWIDE AND WARMER TEMPERATURES STARTING
THURSDAY INTO THE WEEKEND.

&&

.DISCUSSION...WESTERN EDGE OF PLUME OF MOISTURE THAT IS OVER FAR SE
COCHISE COUNTY THIS MORNING IS SLOWLY MOVING E. VALLEY RAIN/MOUNTAIN
SNOW DOWN THERE HAS SLOWLY BEEN DIMINISHING IN THE PAST COUPLE OF
HOURS. MADE SOME ADJUSTMENTS TO THE FORECAST IN A RECENT UPDATE.

WATER VAPOR IMAGERY THIS MORNING SHOWED AN UPPER LOW OFF NRN BAJA
COAST WHICH IS FURTHER SOUTH VERSUS THE ONE THAT WAS OFF THE SRN CA
COAST ON MONDAY. THIS UPPER LOW WILL DIG A LITTLE FURTHER S THIS
MORNING BEFORE PUTTING ON THE LEFT BLINKER AND HEAD E. FURTHER N
THERE IS AN UPPER LEVEL TROF THAT WILL MOVE THRU THE GREAT BASIN
TODAY WITH BOTH SYSTEMS KINDA PHASING TOGETHER LATER TONIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY. THESE FEATURES WILL BRING ANOTHER CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION
TO THE AREA WITH THE BEST CHANCES BEING ALONG/NEAR THE INTERNATIONAL
BORDER ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW MOVING ACROSS NRN SONORA MEXICO.

&&

.AVIATION...VALID THRU 04/15Z
SCTD CUMULUS DECKS AT 3-6KFT AGL. CLOUDS INCREASING TONIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY MORNING. CHANCE OF SHOWERS RETURNING TO THE AREA TONIGHT
WITH BEST CHANCE BEING ALONG THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER. LIGHT AND
VARIABLE SFC WIND THIS MORNING BECOMING SW AT 10-20 KTS WITH GUSTS
25-30 KTS. AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR TAF AMENDMENTS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...ANOTHER WEATHER SYSTEM WILL IMPACT THE AREA LATE
TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY FOR ANOTHER CHANCE OF SHOWERS ESPECIALLY NEAR
THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER. DRY AND WARMER THURSDAY ONWARD.

&&

.TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...YOUTUBE...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/TUCSON






000
FXUS65 KTWC 031632
AFDTWC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ
930 AM MST TUE MAR 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS..A FOLLOW UP SYSTEM WILL MOVE ALONG OR JUST SOUTH OF THE
INTERNATIONAL BORDER TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY AND BRING ANOTHER CHANCE
OF VALLEY RAIN AND MOUNTAIN SNOW...MAINLY NEAR THE INTERNATIONAL
BORDER. DRY CONDITIONS AREAWIDE AND WARMER TEMPERATURES STARTING
THURSDAY INTO THE WEEKEND.

&&

.DISCUSSION...WESTERN EDGE OF PLUME OF MOISTURE THAT IS OVER FAR SE
COCHISE COUNTY THIS MORNING IS SLOWLY MOVING E. VALLEY RAIN/MOUNTAIN
SNOW DOWN THERE HAS SLOWLY BEEN DIMINISHING IN THE PAST COUPLE OF
HOURS. MADE SOME ADJUSTMENTS TO THE FORECAST IN A RECENT UPDATE.

WATER VAPOR IMAGERY THIS MORNING SHOWED AN UPPER LOW OFF NRN BAJA
COAST WHICH IS FURTHER SOUTH VERSUS THE ONE THAT WAS OFF THE SRN CA
COAST ON MONDAY. THIS UPPER LOW WILL DIG A LITTLE FURTHER S THIS
MORNING BEFORE PUTTING ON THE LEFT BLINKER AND HEAD E. FURTHER N
THERE IS AN UPPER LEVEL TROF THAT WILL MOVE THRU THE GREAT BASIN
TODAY WITH BOTH SYSTEMS KINDA PHASING TOGETHER LATER TONIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY. THESE FEATURES WILL BRING ANOTHER CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION
TO THE AREA WITH THE BEST CHANCES BEING ALONG/NEAR THE INTERNATIONAL
BORDER ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW MOVING ACROSS NRN SONORA MEXICO.

&&

.AVIATION...VALID THRU 04/15Z
SCTD CUMULUS DECKS AT 3-6KFT AGL. CLOUDS INCREASING TONIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY MORNING. CHANCE OF SHOWERS RETURNING TO THE AREA TONIGHT
WITH BEST CHANCE BEING ALONG THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER. LIGHT AND
VARIABLE SFC WIND THIS MORNING BECOMING SW AT 10-20 KTS WITH GUSTS
25-30 KTS. AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR TAF AMENDMENTS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...ANOTHER WEATHER SYSTEM WILL IMPACT THE AREA LATE
TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY FOR ANOTHER CHANCE OF SHOWERS ESPECIALLY NEAR
THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER. DRY AND WARMER THURSDAY ONWARD.

&&

.TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...YOUTUBE...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/TUCSON






000
FXUS65 KTWC 031632
AFDTWC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ
930 AM MST TUE MAR 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS..A FOLLOW UP SYSTEM WILL MOVE ALONG OR JUST SOUTH OF THE
INTERNATIONAL BORDER TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY AND BRING ANOTHER CHANCE
OF VALLEY RAIN AND MOUNTAIN SNOW...MAINLY NEAR THE INTERNATIONAL
BORDER. DRY CONDITIONS AREAWIDE AND WARMER TEMPERATURES STARTING
THURSDAY INTO THE WEEKEND.

&&

.DISCUSSION...WESTERN EDGE OF PLUME OF MOISTURE THAT IS OVER FAR SE
COCHISE COUNTY THIS MORNING IS SLOWLY MOVING E. VALLEY RAIN/MOUNTAIN
SNOW DOWN THERE HAS SLOWLY BEEN DIMINISHING IN THE PAST COUPLE OF
HOURS. MADE SOME ADJUSTMENTS TO THE FORECAST IN A RECENT UPDATE.

WATER VAPOR IMAGERY THIS MORNING SHOWED AN UPPER LOW OFF NRN BAJA
COAST WHICH IS FURTHER SOUTH VERSUS THE ONE THAT WAS OFF THE SRN CA
COAST ON MONDAY. THIS UPPER LOW WILL DIG A LITTLE FURTHER S THIS
MORNING BEFORE PUTTING ON THE LEFT BLINKER AND HEAD E. FURTHER N
THERE IS AN UPPER LEVEL TROF THAT WILL MOVE THRU THE GREAT BASIN
TODAY WITH BOTH SYSTEMS KINDA PHASING TOGETHER LATER TONIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY. THESE FEATURES WILL BRING ANOTHER CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION
TO THE AREA WITH THE BEST CHANCES BEING ALONG/NEAR THE INTERNATIONAL
BORDER ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW MOVING ACROSS NRN SONORA MEXICO.

&&

.AVIATION...VALID THRU 04/15Z
SCTD CUMULUS DECKS AT 3-6KFT AGL. CLOUDS INCREASING TONIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY MORNING. CHANCE OF SHOWERS RETURNING TO THE AREA TONIGHT
WITH BEST CHANCE BEING ALONG THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER. LIGHT AND
VARIABLE SFC WIND THIS MORNING BECOMING SW AT 10-20 KTS WITH GUSTS
25-30 KTS. AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR TAF AMENDMENTS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...ANOTHER WEATHER SYSTEM WILL IMPACT THE AREA LATE
TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY FOR ANOTHER CHANCE OF SHOWERS ESPECIALLY NEAR
THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER. DRY AND WARMER THURSDAY ONWARD.

&&

.TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...YOUTUBE...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/TUCSON






000
FXUS65 KTWC 031632
AFDTWC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ
930 AM MST TUE MAR 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS..A FOLLOW UP SYSTEM WILL MOVE ALONG OR JUST SOUTH OF THE
INTERNATIONAL BORDER TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY AND BRING ANOTHER CHANCE
OF VALLEY RAIN AND MOUNTAIN SNOW...MAINLY NEAR THE INTERNATIONAL
BORDER. DRY CONDITIONS AREAWIDE AND WARMER TEMPERATURES STARTING
THURSDAY INTO THE WEEKEND.

&&

.DISCUSSION...WESTERN EDGE OF PLUME OF MOISTURE THAT IS OVER FAR SE
COCHISE COUNTY THIS MORNING IS SLOWLY MOVING E. VALLEY RAIN/MOUNTAIN
SNOW DOWN THERE HAS SLOWLY BEEN DIMINISHING IN THE PAST COUPLE OF
HOURS. MADE SOME ADJUSTMENTS TO THE FORECAST IN A RECENT UPDATE.

WATER VAPOR IMAGERY THIS MORNING SHOWED AN UPPER LOW OFF NRN BAJA
COAST WHICH IS FURTHER SOUTH VERSUS THE ONE THAT WAS OFF THE SRN CA
COAST ON MONDAY. THIS UPPER LOW WILL DIG A LITTLE FURTHER S THIS
MORNING BEFORE PUTTING ON THE LEFT BLINKER AND HEAD E. FURTHER N
THERE IS AN UPPER LEVEL TROF THAT WILL MOVE THRU THE GREAT BASIN
TODAY WITH BOTH SYSTEMS KINDA PHASING TOGETHER LATER TONIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY. THESE FEATURES WILL BRING ANOTHER CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION
TO THE AREA WITH THE BEST CHANCES BEING ALONG/NEAR THE INTERNATIONAL
BORDER ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW MOVING ACROSS NRN SONORA MEXICO.

&&

.AVIATION...VALID THRU 04/15Z
SCTD CUMULUS DECKS AT 3-6KFT AGL. CLOUDS INCREASING TONIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY MORNING. CHANCE OF SHOWERS RETURNING TO THE AREA TONIGHT
WITH BEST CHANCE BEING ALONG THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER. LIGHT AND
VARIABLE SFC WIND THIS MORNING BECOMING SW AT 10-20 KTS WITH GUSTS
25-30 KTS. AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR TAF AMENDMENTS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...ANOTHER WEATHER SYSTEM WILL IMPACT THE AREA LATE
TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY FOR ANOTHER CHANCE OF SHOWERS ESPECIALLY NEAR
THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER. DRY AND WARMER THURSDAY ONWARD.

&&

.TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...YOUTUBE...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/TUCSON







000
FXUS65 KTWC 031632
AFDTWC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ
930 AM MST TUE MAR 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS..A FOLLOW UP SYSTEM WILL MOVE ALONG OR JUST SOUTH OF THE
INTERNATIONAL BORDER TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY AND BRING ANOTHER CHANCE
OF VALLEY RAIN AND MOUNTAIN SNOW...MAINLY NEAR THE INTERNATIONAL
BORDER. DRY CONDITIONS AREAWIDE AND WARMER TEMPERATURES STARTING
THURSDAY INTO THE WEEKEND.

&&

.DISCUSSION...WESTERN EDGE OF PLUME OF MOISTURE THAT IS OVER FAR SE
COCHISE COUNTY THIS MORNING IS SLOWLY MOVING E. VALLEY RAIN/MOUNTAIN
SNOW DOWN THERE HAS SLOWLY BEEN DIMINISHING IN THE PAST COUPLE OF
HOURS. MADE SOME ADJUSTMENTS TO THE FORECAST IN A RECENT UPDATE.

WATER VAPOR IMAGERY THIS MORNING SHOWED AN UPPER LOW OFF NRN BAJA
COAST WHICH IS FURTHER SOUTH VERSUS THE ONE THAT WAS OFF THE SRN CA
COAST ON MONDAY. THIS UPPER LOW WILL DIG A LITTLE FURTHER S THIS
MORNING BEFORE PUTTING ON THE LEFT BLINKER AND HEAD E. FURTHER N
THERE IS AN UPPER LEVEL TROF THAT WILL MOVE THRU THE GREAT BASIN
TODAY WITH BOTH SYSTEMS KINDA PHASING TOGETHER LATER TONIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY. THESE FEATURES WILL BRING ANOTHER CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION
TO THE AREA WITH THE BEST CHANCES BEING ALONG/NEAR THE INTERNATIONAL
BORDER ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW MOVING ACROSS NRN SONORA MEXICO.

&&

.AVIATION...VALID THRU 04/15Z
SCTD CUMULUS DECKS AT 3-6KFT AGL. CLOUDS INCREASING TONIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY MORNING. CHANCE OF SHOWERS RETURNING TO THE AREA TONIGHT
WITH BEST CHANCE BEING ALONG THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER. LIGHT AND
VARIABLE SFC WIND THIS MORNING BECOMING SW AT 10-20 KTS WITH GUSTS
25-30 KTS. AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR TAF AMENDMENTS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...ANOTHER WEATHER SYSTEM WILL IMPACT THE AREA LATE
TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY FOR ANOTHER CHANCE OF SHOWERS ESPECIALLY NEAR
THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER. DRY AND WARMER THURSDAY ONWARD.

&&

.TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...YOUTUBE...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/TUCSON






000
FXUS65 KFGZ 031629
AFDFGZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ
900 AM MST TUE MAR 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...SCATTERED LIGHT RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE
OVER NORTH CENTRAL ARIZONA THIS MORNING. A SECOND STORM WILL
APPROACH ARIZONA FROM THE NORTH THIS AFTERNOON...BRINGING MORE
RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS TO THE AREA THROUGH EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING.
AFTER A COLD BUT DRIER DAY ON WEDNESDAY...HIGH PRESSURE AND A
WARMING TREND RETURNS FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
BASED ON SATELLITE AND RADAR OBSERVATIONS HAVE LOWERED THE CHANCE
FOR PRECIPITATION AND PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS FOR THE MORNING STRETCH.
LOOK FOR SCATTERED FLURRIES AND EXTREMELY LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS WITH
GENERALLY NO MEASURABLE ACCUMULATIONS OF RAIN OR SNOW. WE HAVE
ADJUSTED THE FORECAST ACCORDINGLY. OTHERWISE THE FORECAST PACKAGE IS
IN GOOD SHAPE.

A TROUGH REMAINS POSITIONED OFF THE SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA COAST. A
WEAK DISTURBANCE AHEAD OF THE TROUGH APPEARS TO BE GENERATING ENOUGH
LIFT IN OUR SATURATED ENVIRONMENT TO CONTINUE SHOWER ACTIVITY ACROSS
NORTH CENTRAL ARIZONA. EXPECT THIS ACTIVITY TO CONTINUE. A SHORTWAVE
APPROACHING FROM UTAH BY THIS AFTERNOON ENHANCES INSTABILITY AND
WILL LIKELY BRING AN INCREASE IN SHOWER COVERAGE AND INTENSITY.
SHOWERS SHOULD CONTINUE THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT AS THE WAVE PUSHES
A FAST MOVING COLD FRONT SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH WEDNESDAY
MORNING.

THE BOTTOM LINE IS THAT PRECIPITATION HAS NOT ENDED FOR NORTHERN
ARIZONA AND SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT THE AREA TODAY THROUGH
WEDNESDAY MORNING. PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS WILL GENERALLY BE LIGHT
AND SPOTTY WITH UP TO 1 TO 3 ADDITIONAL INCHES OF SNOWFALL
POSSIBLE IN HIGHER TERRAIN AREAS. SNOW LEVELS WILL GENERALLY HOVER
FROM 4500-5500 FEET...SLIGHTLY HIGHER TOWARDS THE WHITE MOUNTAINS.

COOL TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TODAY AND WEDNESDAY BEFORE WARMING
UP THURSDAY INTO THE WEEKEND. HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS TO THE WEST
COAST THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH NO SIGN OF ADDITIONAL PRECIPITATION
THROUGH AT LEAST MONDAY OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...
FOR THE 18Z PACKAGE...AREAS OF MAINLY MVFR CEILINGS THIS
MORNING...WITH PATCHY LOWER CEILINGS AND FOG. EXPECT ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED SHOWER COVERAGE THROUGH 18Z THEN INCREASING COVERAGE AS A
WEATHER DISTURBANCE APPROACHES THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. MVFR AND
LOCAL IFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE WITH THE STRONGER CELLS. AVIATION
DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR TAF AMENDMENTS.

&&

.FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC.........MCCOLLUM/MCS
AVIATION.......RICKY/JJ

FOR NORTHERN ARIZONA WEATHER INFORMATION VISIT
WEATHER.GOV/FLAGSTAFF






000
FXUS65 KFGZ 031629
AFDFGZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ
900 AM MST TUE MAR 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...SCATTERED LIGHT RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE
OVER NORTH CENTRAL ARIZONA THIS MORNING. A SECOND STORM WILL
APPROACH ARIZONA FROM THE NORTH THIS AFTERNOON...BRINGING MORE
RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS TO THE AREA THROUGH EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING.
AFTER A COLD BUT DRIER DAY ON WEDNESDAY...HIGH PRESSURE AND A
WARMING TREND RETURNS FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
BASED ON SATELLITE AND RADAR OBSERVATIONS HAVE LOWERED THE CHANCE
FOR PRECIPITATION AND PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS FOR THE MORNING STRETCH.
LOOK FOR SCATTERED FLURRIES AND EXTREMELY LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS WITH
GENERALLY NO MEASURABLE ACCUMULATIONS OF RAIN OR SNOW. WE HAVE
ADJUSTED THE FORECAST ACCORDINGLY. OTHERWISE THE FORECAST PACKAGE IS
IN GOOD SHAPE.

A TROUGH REMAINS POSITIONED OFF THE SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA COAST. A
WEAK DISTURBANCE AHEAD OF THE TROUGH APPEARS TO BE GENERATING ENOUGH
LIFT IN OUR SATURATED ENVIRONMENT TO CONTINUE SHOWER ACTIVITY ACROSS
NORTH CENTRAL ARIZONA. EXPECT THIS ACTIVITY TO CONTINUE. A SHORTWAVE
APPROACHING FROM UTAH BY THIS AFTERNOON ENHANCES INSTABILITY AND
WILL LIKELY BRING AN INCREASE IN SHOWER COVERAGE AND INTENSITY.
SHOWERS SHOULD CONTINUE THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT AS THE WAVE PUSHES
A FAST MOVING COLD FRONT SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH WEDNESDAY
MORNING.

THE BOTTOM LINE IS THAT PRECIPITATION HAS NOT ENDED FOR NORTHERN
ARIZONA AND SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT THE AREA TODAY THROUGH
WEDNESDAY MORNING. PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS WILL GENERALLY BE LIGHT
AND SPOTTY WITH UP TO 1 TO 3 ADDITIONAL INCHES OF SNOWFALL
POSSIBLE IN HIGHER TERRAIN AREAS. SNOW LEVELS WILL GENERALLY HOVER
FROM 4500-5500 FEET...SLIGHTLY HIGHER TOWARDS THE WHITE MOUNTAINS.

COOL TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TODAY AND WEDNESDAY BEFORE WARMING
UP THURSDAY INTO THE WEEKEND. HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS TO THE WEST
COAST THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH NO SIGN OF ADDITIONAL PRECIPITATION
THROUGH AT LEAST MONDAY OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...
FOR THE 18Z PACKAGE...AREAS OF MAINLY MVFR CEILINGS THIS
MORNING...WITH PATCHY LOWER CEILINGS AND FOG. EXPECT ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED SHOWER COVERAGE THROUGH 18Z THEN INCREASING COVERAGE AS A
WEATHER DISTURBANCE APPROACHES THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. MVFR AND
LOCAL IFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE WITH THE STRONGER CELLS. AVIATION
DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR TAF AMENDMENTS.

&&

.FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC.........MCCOLLUM/MCS
AVIATION.......RICKY/JJ

FOR NORTHERN ARIZONA WEATHER INFORMATION VISIT
WEATHER.GOV/FLAGSTAFF






000
FXUS65 KFGZ 031629
AFDFGZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ
900 AM MST TUE MAR 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...SCATTERED LIGHT RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE
OVER NORTH CENTRAL ARIZONA THIS MORNING. A SECOND STORM WILL
APPROACH ARIZONA FROM THE NORTH THIS AFTERNOON...BRINGING MORE
RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS TO THE AREA THROUGH EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING.
AFTER A COLD BUT DRIER DAY ON WEDNESDAY...HIGH PRESSURE AND A
WARMING TREND RETURNS FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
BASED ON SATELLITE AND RADAR OBSERVATIONS HAVE LOWERED THE CHANCE
FOR PRECIPITATION AND PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS FOR THE MORNING STRETCH.
LOOK FOR SCATTERED FLURRIES AND EXTREMELY LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS WITH
GENERALLY NO MEASURABLE ACCUMULATIONS OF RAIN OR SNOW. WE HAVE
ADJUSTED THE FORECAST ACCORDINGLY. OTHERWISE THE FORECAST PACKAGE IS
IN GOOD SHAPE.

A TROUGH REMAINS POSITIONED OFF THE SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA COAST. A
WEAK DISTURBANCE AHEAD OF THE TROUGH APPEARS TO BE GENERATING ENOUGH
LIFT IN OUR SATURATED ENVIRONMENT TO CONTINUE SHOWER ACTIVITY ACROSS
NORTH CENTRAL ARIZONA. EXPECT THIS ACTIVITY TO CONTINUE. A SHORTWAVE
APPROACHING FROM UTAH BY THIS AFTERNOON ENHANCES INSTABILITY AND
WILL LIKELY BRING AN INCREASE IN SHOWER COVERAGE AND INTENSITY.
SHOWERS SHOULD CONTINUE THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT AS THE WAVE PUSHES
A FAST MOVING COLD FRONT SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH WEDNESDAY
MORNING.

THE BOTTOM LINE IS THAT PRECIPITATION HAS NOT ENDED FOR NORTHERN
ARIZONA AND SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT THE AREA TODAY THROUGH
WEDNESDAY MORNING. PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS WILL GENERALLY BE LIGHT
AND SPOTTY WITH UP TO 1 TO 3 ADDITIONAL INCHES OF SNOWFALL
POSSIBLE IN HIGHER TERRAIN AREAS. SNOW LEVELS WILL GENERALLY HOVER
FROM 4500-5500 FEET...SLIGHTLY HIGHER TOWARDS THE WHITE MOUNTAINS.

COOL TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TODAY AND WEDNESDAY BEFORE WARMING
UP THURSDAY INTO THE WEEKEND. HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS TO THE WEST
COAST THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH NO SIGN OF ADDITIONAL PRECIPITATION
THROUGH AT LEAST MONDAY OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...
FOR THE 18Z PACKAGE...AREAS OF MAINLY MVFR CEILINGS THIS
MORNING...WITH PATCHY LOWER CEILINGS AND FOG. EXPECT ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED SHOWER COVERAGE THROUGH 18Z THEN INCREASING COVERAGE AS A
WEATHER DISTURBANCE APPROACHES THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. MVFR AND
LOCAL IFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE WITH THE STRONGER CELLS. AVIATION
DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR TAF AMENDMENTS.

&&

.FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC.........MCCOLLUM/MCS
AVIATION.......RICKY/JJ

FOR NORTHERN ARIZONA WEATHER INFORMATION VISIT
WEATHER.GOV/FLAGSTAFF






000
FXUS65 KFGZ 031629
AFDFGZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ
900 AM MST TUE MAR 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...SCATTERED LIGHT RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE
OVER NORTH CENTRAL ARIZONA THIS MORNING. A SECOND STORM WILL
APPROACH ARIZONA FROM THE NORTH THIS AFTERNOON...BRINGING MORE
RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS TO THE AREA THROUGH EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING.
AFTER A COLD BUT DRIER DAY ON WEDNESDAY...HIGH PRESSURE AND A
WARMING TREND RETURNS FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
BASED ON SATELLITE AND RADAR OBSERVATIONS HAVE LOWERED THE CHANCE
FOR PRECIPITATION AND PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS FOR THE MORNING STRETCH.
LOOK FOR SCATTERED FLURRIES AND EXTREMELY LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS WITH
GENERALLY NO MEASURABLE ACCUMULATIONS OF RAIN OR SNOW. WE HAVE
ADJUSTED THE FORECAST ACCORDINGLY. OTHERWISE THE FORECAST PACKAGE IS
IN GOOD SHAPE.

A TROUGH REMAINS POSITIONED OFF THE SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA COAST. A
WEAK DISTURBANCE AHEAD OF THE TROUGH APPEARS TO BE GENERATING ENOUGH
LIFT IN OUR SATURATED ENVIRONMENT TO CONTINUE SHOWER ACTIVITY ACROSS
NORTH CENTRAL ARIZONA. EXPECT THIS ACTIVITY TO CONTINUE. A SHORTWAVE
APPROACHING FROM UTAH BY THIS AFTERNOON ENHANCES INSTABILITY AND
WILL LIKELY BRING AN INCREASE IN SHOWER COVERAGE AND INTENSITY.
SHOWERS SHOULD CONTINUE THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT AS THE WAVE PUSHES
A FAST MOVING COLD FRONT SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH WEDNESDAY
MORNING.

THE BOTTOM LINE IS THAT PRECIPITATION HAS NOT ENDED FOR NORTHERN
ARIZONA AND SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT THE AREA TODAY THROUGH
WEDNESDAY MORNING. PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS WILL GENERALLY BE LIGHT
AND SPOTTY WITH UP TO 1 TO 3 ADDITIONAL INCHES OF SNOWFALL
POSSIBLE IN HIGHER TERRAIN AREAS. SNOW LEVELS WILL GENERALLY HOVER
FROM 4500-5500 FEET...SLIGHTLY HIGHER TOWARDS THE WHITE MOUNTAINS.

COOL TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TODAY AND WEDNESDAY BEFORE WARMING
UP THURSDAY INTO THE WEEKEND. HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS TO THE WEST
COAST THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH NO SIGN OF ADDITIONAL PRECIPITATION
THROUGH AT LEAST MONDAY OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...
FOR THE 18Z PACKAGE...AREAS OF MAINLY MVFR CEILINGS THIS
MORNING...WITH PATCHY LOWER CEILINGS AND FOG. EXPECT ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED SHOWER COVERAGE THROUGH 18Z THEN INCREASING COVERAGE AS A
WEATHER DISTURBANCE APPROACHES THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. MVFR AND
LOCAL IFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE WITH THE STRONGER CELLS. AVIATION
DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR TAF AMENDMENTS.

&&

.FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC.........MCCOLLUM/MCS
AVIATION.......RICKY/JJ

FOR NORTHERN ARIZONA WEATHER INFORMATION VISIT
WEATHER.GOV/FLAGSTAFF






000
FXUS65 KFGZ 031629
AFDFGZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ
900 AM MST TUE MAR 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...SCATTERED LIGHT RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE
OVER NORTH CENTRAL ARIZONA THIS MORNING. A SECOND STORM WILL
APPROACH ARIZONA FROM THE NORTH THIS AFTERNOON...BRINGING MORE
RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS TO THE AREA THROUGH EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING.
AFTER A COLD BUT DRIER DAY ON WEDNESDAY...HIGH PRESSURE AND A
WARMING TREND RETURNS FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
BASED ON SATELLITE AND RADAR OBSERVATIONS HAVE LOWERED THE CHANCE
FOR PRECIPITATION AND PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS FOR THE MORNING STRETCH.
LOOK FOR SCATTERED FLURRIES AND EXTREMELY LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS WITH
GENERALLY NO MEASURABLE ACCUMULATIONS OF RAIN OR SNOW. WE HAVE
ADJUSTED THE FORECAST ACCORDINGLY. OTHERWISE THE FORECAST PACKAGE IS
IN GOOD SHAPE.

A TROUGH REMAINS POSITIONED OFF THE SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA COAST. A
WEAK DISTURBANCE AHEAD OF THE TROUGH APPEARS TO BE GENERATING ENOUGH
LIFT IN OUR SATURATED ENVIRONMENT TO CONTINUE SHOWER ACTIVITY ACROSS
NORTH CENTRAL ARIZONA. EXPECT THIS ACTIVITY TO CONTINUE. A SHORTWAVE
APPROACHING FROM UTAH BY THIS AFTERNOON ENHANCES INSTABILITY AND
WILL LIKELY BRING AN INCREASE IN SHOWER COVERAGE AND INTENSITY.
SHOWERS SHOULD CONTINUE THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT AS THE WAVE PUSHES
A FAST MOVING COLD FRONT SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH WEDNESDAY
MORNING.

THE BOTTOM LINE IS THAT PRECIPITATION HAS NOT ENDED FOR NORTHERN
ARIZONA AND SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT THE AREA TODAY THROUGH
WEDNESDAY MORNING. PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS WILL GENERALLY BE LIGHT
AND SPOTTY WITH UP TO 1 TO 3 ADDITIONAL INCHES OF SNOWFALL
POSSIBLE IN HIGHER TERRAIN AREAS. SNOW LEVELS WILL GENERALLY HOVER
FROM 4500-5500 FEET...SLIGHTLY HIGHER TOWARDS THE WHITE MOUNTAINS.

COOL TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TODAY AND WEDNESDAY BEFORE WARMING
UP THURSDAY INTO THE WEEKEND. HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS TO THE WEST
COAST THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH NO SIGN OF ADDITIONAL PRECIPITATION
THROUGH AT LEAST MONDAY OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...
FOR THE 18Z PACKAGE...AREAS OF MAINLY MVFR CEILINGS THIS
MORNING...WITH PATCHY LOWER CEILINGS AND FOG. EXPECT ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED SHOWER COVERAGE THROUGH 18Z THEN INCREASING COVERAGE AS A
WEATHER DISTURBANCE APPROACHES THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. MVFR AND
LOCAL IFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE WITH THE STRONGER CELLS. AVIATION
DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR TAF AMENDMENTS.

&&

.FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC.........MCCOLLUM/MCS
AVIATION.......RICKY/JJ

FOR NORTHERN ARIZONA WEATHER INFORMATION VISIT
WEATHER.GOV/FLAGSTAFF






000
FXUS65 KPSR 031625
AFDPSR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PHOENIX AZ
925 AM MST TUE MAR 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE...THAT WILL BE MOVING SLOWLY SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE
REGION...WILL KEEP THE WEATHER RATHER UNSETTLED AND COOL THROUGH
WEDNESDAY. A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS...AND EVEN A FEW THUNDERSTORMS
CAN BE EXPECTED OVER SOUTH CENTRAL ARIZONA THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING.
A RETURN TO ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES IS LIKELY BY THURSDAY...INTO
THE WEEKEND AS HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM BUILDS OVER THE DESERT
SOUTHWEST.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
INTERESTING WEATHER THIS MORNING AS PATCHY DENSE FOG DEVELOPED
ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE GREATER PHOENIX METROPOLITAN AREA...AND MUCH
OF NORTHWEST PINAL COUNTY. A TROF OF LOW PRESSURE CONTINUED TO SAG
SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE DESERT SOUTHWEST WITH THE TROF AXIS RUNNING
NE-SW ACROSS FAR SERN CA/SRN NEVADA. ORIENTATION OF THE TROF PLACED
A WEAK SWLY FLOW ACROSS THE LOWER DESERTS WHICH CONTINUED TO ADVECT
IN MODEST AMOUNTS OF MOISTURE. OVERALL MOISTURE VALUES ARE LESS THAN
24 HOURS AGO...WITH PWAT VALUES RUNNING AROUND ONE HALF INCH...BUT
THE BOUNDARY LAYER REMAINS QUITE MOIST. SURFACE DEWPOINTS ACROSS THE
CENTRAL DESERTS WERE RUNNING IN THE MID TO UPPER 40S AT 9 AM. SOME
UNEXPECTED CLEARING EARLY THIS MORNING ALLOWED SURFACE TEMPS TO FALL
OFF AND REACH THE CROSSOVER TEMPERATURE AND AS SUCH PATCHY DENSE FOG
DEVELOPED IN THE GREATER PHOENIX AREA...DROPPING VIS AT SKY HARBOR
TO 1/4 MILE. OTHER AREAS...NEAR SOUTH MOUNTAIN...ALONG INTERSTATE 8
AND THE SALT RIVER BED...AND ESPECIALLY SOUTHEAST OF THE VALLEY IN
CASA GRANDE...SAW LOCALLY DENSE FOG WITH VIS VALUES DOWN AT OR BELOW
1/4 MILE. WE ISSUED A DENSE FOG ADVISORY FOR ZONE 28 EFFECTIVE UNTIL
10 AM.

FOR THE REST OF TODAY...THE FOG WILL GRADUALLY ERODE UNDER THE
INFLUENCE OF INCREASING SUN/MIXING...AND WE WILL SEE PARTLY CLOUDY
SKIES THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. AS THE TROF AXIS SLOWLY MOVES IN FROM
THE WEST TODAY AND THIS EVENING THERE WILL BE SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY
TO ALLOW FOR A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS OR AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS.
DYNAMICS ARE RATHER WEAK...AS THE WIND FIELDS ASSOCIATED WITH THE
PASSING TROF ARE NOT VERY IMPRESSIVE...SO ANY STORM THAT DEVELOPS
WILL BE ON THE WEAK SIDE AS WELL. FORECASTS HAVE BEEN TWEAKED FOR
CURRENT SKY AND WEATHER TRENDS AND ARE IN GOOD SHAPE FOR NOW.

.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...
AFTER A RATHER WET AND COOL MONDAY...WITH SOME OF THE MOST FAVORED
AREAS ACROSS NORTHERN MARICOPA COUNTY SEEING UP TO AN INCH OF
RAIN...TODAY LOOKS LIKE IT WILL BE A QUIETER ONE...AS THE UPPER TROF
THAT BROUGHT US ALL THE RAIN AND CLOUDS HAS NOW MOVED OFF WELL TO
OUR EAST...INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS.

HOWEVER...THE WEATHER TODAY AND TONIGHT STILL LOOKS LIKE IT WILL BE
RATHER UNSETTLED...WITH ISOLATED-TO-SCATTERED SHOWERS TO CONTINUE
OVER SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA...ESPECIALLY OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN
NORTH AND EAST OF PHOENIX. THIS CONTINUATION OF SHOWER CHANCES IS
DUE TO A COMBINATION OF MOIST SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT THAT IS BEING
GENERATED BY ANOTHER UPPER LOW CENTER THAT IS NOW POSITIONED OFF THE
SOUTHERN CA COAST THIS MORNING...AND A COUPLE OF WEAK SHORTWAVES
THAT WILL BE DROPPING SOUTHWARD ACROSS AZ AS THE STRONG LONG-WAVE
UPPER TROF THEY ARE EMBEDDED IN MOVES SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE
CENTRAL ROCKIES INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS. ALTHOUGH MOISTURE LEVELS
THROUGH THE COLUMN LOOK TO BE RATHER LIMITED...WITH PWATS IN THE
0.50-0.60 INCH RANGE...THERE APPEARS THAT THERE WILL BE ENOUGH
DYNAMICS/INSTABILITY TO TRIGGER LIGHT SHOWERS...AND EVEN ONE OR TWO
THUNDERSTORMS TODAY AND TONIGHT AS THE SHORTWAVES PASS ACROSS THE
REGION...WITH PERHAPS A TENTH OF AN INCH OR SO OF RAIN FALLING FROM
THE HEAVIER SHOWERS...AND EVEN A DUSTING OF SNOW OVER OUR HIGHEST
PEAKS. TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW NORMAL TODAY...WITH
850MB TEMPERATURES AROUND 5C KEEPING LOWER DESERT HIGHS DOWN IN THE
60S AND LOW 70S...IN SPITE OF CONSIDERABLE SUNSHINE. THE CHANCES FOR
PRECIP WILL PRETTY MUCH END BY MIDDAY ON WEDNESDAY AS THE UPPER LOW
THAT IS NOW OFF THE SOUTHERN CA COAST MOVES OFF WELL TO OUR SOUTH
AND EAST...CUTTING OFF THE MOISTURE FEED FROM THE PACIFIC...AND
RIDGING BEGINS TO BUILD IN FROM THE WEST BEHIND THE MAIN LONG-WAVE
TROF.

THURSDAY...

A DRYING AND SUBSIDENT NORTHERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL SET
UP ACROSS THE AREA AS HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT STARTS TO BUILD ALONG THE
CA COAST. THIS WILL LEAD TO SUNNY SKIES...AND CONTINUED WARMING
WITH HIGH TEMPS REACHING INTO THE LOW TO MID 70S...AND TOWARDS
SEASONAL NORMALS.

FRIDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...
A WARMING TREND IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THIS PERIOD UNDER
MAINLY CLEAR SKIES AS HIGH PRESSURE STRENGTHENS OVER THE
REGION...WITH A GOOD CHANCE FOR HIGHS NEAR 80 ACROSS THE LOWER
DESERTS BY THE WEEKEND...AND EVEN INTO THE MID 80S BY NEXT TUESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...
SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA INCLUDING KPHX...KIWA AND KSDL...
LOCALIZED AND PATCHY FOG DEVELOPMENT WILL CONTINUE TO FAVOR AREAS OF
THE SOUTHEAST PHX METRO AND NW PINAL COUNTY THROUGH THE MORNING...AT
TIMES GENERATING LOCALLY DENSE VSBYS INTO IFR VALUES. ANOTHER ROUND
OF MID TO HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS WILL APPROACH FROM THE SOUTHWEST...WHICH
SHOULD HELP MITIGATE FURTHER FOG DEVELOPMENT THIS MORNING. CANNOT
RULE OUT ISOLATED SHOWER DEVELOP LATER INTO THE DAY/AFTERNOON WITH
THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS STILL OVERHEAD AND ABUNDANT LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE
STILL PREVALENT. HOWEVER...WILL NOT INCLUDE MENTION IN THE TAFS THIS
TIME UNTIL COVERAGE PICKS UP ON AREA RADARS. SFC WINDS WILL REMAIN
LIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING...AND TYPICAL OVERNIGHT SHIFT TO AN
EASTERLY DIRECTION MAY BE VERY DELAYED OR NON-EXISTENT LATE TONIGHT.

SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA AND SOUTHWEST ARIZONA INCLUDING KIPL AND KBLH...
NO AVIATION CONCERNS THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING WITH JUST OCCASIONAL
HIGH CLOUDS AND A FEW AFTERNOON CU TO DEAL WITH. SFC WINDS WILL
GENERALLY FAVOR A NORTHWEST DIRECTION...HOWEVER THE WEAK PRESSURE
GRADIENT MAY ALLOW EXTENDED PERIODS OF VARIABLE DIRECTION WITH
SPEEDS AOB 6 KT.

AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDED TAFS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY...
STRONG HIGH PRESSURE WILL PROVIDE SEASONABLY WARM AND DRY CONDITIONS
TO THE DISTRICT DURING THE END OF OF THIS WEEK INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
WITH TEMPERATURES SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL...AFTERNOON HUMIDITY LEVELS
WILL REGULARLY FALL INTO A 15 TO 25 PERCENT RANGE WITH GOOD
OVERNIGHT RECOVERY. WINDS WILL FAVOR A NORTH TO NORTHEAST TRAJECTORY
THROUGH THE PERIOD...WITH SOME OCCASIONAL GUSTINESS OVER RIDGE TOPS
BUT ALL IN ALL VERY TYPICAL SPEEDS. OVERALL...FIRE DANGER WILL BE
LIMITED DURING THIS TIME FRAME.

&&

.PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

AZ...NONE.

CA...NONE.

&&

$$

VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/PHOENIX

DISCUSSION...PERCHA/CB
AVIATION...NOLTE/MO
FIRE WEATHER...MO












000
FXUS65 KPSR 031625
AFDPSR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PHOENIX AZ
925 AM MST TUE MAR 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE...THAT WILL BE MOVING SLOWLY SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE
REGION...WILL KEEP THE WEATHER RATHER UNSETTLED AND COOL THROUGH
WEDNESDAY. A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS...AND EVEN A FEW THUNDERSTORMS
CAN BE EXPECTED OVER SOUTH CENTRAL ARIZONA THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING.
A RETURN TO ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES IS LIKELY BY THURSDAY...INTO
THE WEEKEND AS HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM BUILDS OVER THE DESERT
SOUTHWEST.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
INTERESTING WEATHER THIS MORNING AS PATCHY DENSE FOG DEVELOPED
ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE GREATER PHOENIX METROPOLITAN AREA...AND MUCH
OF NORTHWEST PINAL COUNTY. A TROF OF LOW PRESSURE CONTINUED TO SAG
SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE DESERT SOUTHWEST WITH THE TROF AXIS RUNNING
NE-SW ACROSS FAR SERN CA/SRN NEVADA. ORIENTATION OF THE TROF PLACED
A WEAK SWLY FLOW ACROSS THE LOWER DESERTS WHICH CONTINUED TO ADVECT
IN MODEST AMOUNTS OF MOISTURE. OVERALL MOISTURE VALUES ARE LESS THAN
24 HOURS AGO...WITH PWAT VALUES RUNNING AROUND ONE HALF INCH...BUT
THE BOUNDARY LAYER REMAINS QUITE MOIST. SURFACE DEWPOINTS ACROSS THE
CENTRAL DESERTS WERE RUNNING IN THE MID TO UPPER 40S AT 9 AM. SOME
UNEXPECTED CLEARING EARLY THIS MORNING ALLOWED SURFACE TEMPS TO FALL
OFF AND REACH THE CROSSOVER TEMPERATURE AND AS SUCH PATCHY DENSE FOG
DEVELOPED IN THE GREATER PHOENIX AREA...DROPPING VIS AT SKY HARBOR
TO 1/4 MILE. OTHER AREAS...NEAR SOUTH MOUNTAIN...ALONG INTERSTATE 8
AND THE SALT RIVER BED...AND ESPECIALLY SOUTHEAST OF THE VALLEY IN
CASA GRANDE...SAW LOCALLY DENSE FOG WITH VIS VALUES DOWN AT OR BELOW
1/4 MILE. WE ISSUED A DENSE FOG ADVISORY FOR ZONE 28 EFFECTIVE UNTIL
10 AM.

FOR THE REST OF TODAY...THE FOG WILL GRADUALLY ERODE UNDER THE
INFLUENCE OF INCREASING SUN/MIXING...AND WE WILL SEE PARTLY CLOUDY
SKIES THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. AS THE TROF AXIS SLOWLY MOVES IN FROM
THE WEST TODAY AND THIS EVENING THERE WILL BE SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY
TO ALLOW FOR A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS OR AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS.
DYNAMICS ARE RATHER WEAK...AS THE WIND FIELDS ASSOCIATED WITH THE
PASSING TROF ARE NOT VERY IMPRESSIVE...SO ANY STORM THAT DEVELOPS
WILL BE ON THE WEAK SIDE AS WELL. FORECASTS HAVE BEEN TWEAKED FOR
CURRENT SKY AND WEATHER TRENDS AND ARE IN GOOD SHAPE FOR NOW.

.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...
AFTER A RATHER WET AND COOL MONDAY...WITH SOME OF THE MOST FAVORED
AREAS ACROSS NORTHERN MARICOPA COUNTY SEEING UP TO AN INCH OF
RAIN...TODAY LOOKS LIKE IT WILL BE A QUIETER ONE...AS THE UPPER TROF
THAT BROUGHT US ALL THE RAIN AND CLOUDS HAS NOW MOVED OFF WELL TO
OUR EAST...INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS.

HOWEVER...THE WEATHER TODAY AND TONIGHT STILL LOOKS LIKE IT WILL BE
RATHER UNSETTLED...WITH ISOLATED-TO-SCATTERED SHOWERS TO CONTINUE
OVER SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA...ESPECIALLY OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN
NORTH AND EAST OF PHOENIX. THIS CONTINUATION OF SHOWER CHANCES IS
DUE TO A COMBINATION OF MOIST SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT THAT IS BEING
GENERATED BY ANOTHER UPPER LOW CENTER THAT IS NOW POSITIONED OFF THE
SOUTHERN CA COAST THIS MORNING...AND A COUPLE OF WEAK SHORTWAVES
THAT WILL BE DROPPING SOUTHWARD ACROSS AZ AS THE STRONG LONG-WAVE
UPPER TROF THEY ARE EMBEDDED IN MOVES SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE
CENTRAL ROCKIES INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS. ALTHOUGH MOISTURE LEVELS
THROUGH THE COLUMN LOOK TO BE RATHER LIMITED...WITH PWATS IN THE
0.50-0.60 INCH RANGE...THERE APPEARS THAT THERE WILL BE ENOUGH
DYNAMICS/INSTABILITY TO TRIGGER LIGHT SHOWERS...AND EVEN ONE OR TWO
THUNDERSTORMS TODAY AND TONIGHT AS THE SHORTWAVES PASS ACROSS THE
REGION...WITH PERHAPS A TENTH OF AN INCH OR SO OF RAIN FALLING FROM
THE HEAVIER SHOWERS...AND EVEN A DUSTING OF SNOW OVER OUR HIGHEST
PEAKS. TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW NORMAL TODAY...WITH
850MB TEMPERATURES AROUND 5C KEEPING LOWER DESERT HIGHS DOWN IN THE
60S AND LOW 70S...IN SPITE OF CONSIDERABLE SUNSHINE. THE CHANCES FOR
PRECIP WILL PRETTY MUCH END BY MIDDAY ON WEDNESDAY AS THE UPPER LOW
THAT IS NOW OFF THE SOUTHERN CA COAST MOVES OFF WELL TO OUR SOUTH
AND EAST...CUTTING OFF THE MOISTURE FEED FROM THE PACIFIC...AND
RIDGING BEGINS TO BUILD IN FROM THE WEST BEHIND THE MAIN LONG-WAVE
TROF.

THURSDAY...

A DRYING AND SUBSIDENT NORTHERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL SET
UP ACROSS THE AREA AS HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT STARTS TO BUILD ALONG THE
CA COAST. THIS WILL LEAD TO SUNNY SKIES...AND CONTINUED WARMING
WITH HIGH TEMPS REACHING INTO THE LOW TO MID 70S...AND TOWARDS
SEASONAL NORMALS.

FRIDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...
A WARMING TREND IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THIS PERIOD UNDER
MAINLY CLEAR SKIES AS HIGH PRESSURE STRENGTHENS OVER THE
REGION...WITH A GOOD CHANCE FOR HIGHS NEAR 80 ACROSS THE LOWER
DESERTS BY THE WEEKEND...AND EVEN INTO THE MID 80S BY NEXT TUESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...
SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA INCLUDING KPHX...KIWA AND KSDL...
LOCALIZED AND PATCHY FOG DEVELOPMENT WILL CONTINUE TO FAVOR AREAS OF
THE SOUTHEAST PHX METRO AND NW PINAL COUNTY THROUGH THE MORNING...AT
TIMES GENERATING LOCALLY DENSE VSBYS INTO IFR VALUES. ANOTHER ROUND
OF MID TO HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS WILL APPROACH FROM THE SOUTHWEST...WHICH
SHOULD HELP MITIGATE FURTHER FOG DEVELOPMENT THIS MORNING. CANNOT
RULE OUT ISOLATED SHOWER DEVELOP LATER INTO THE DAY/AFTERNOON WITH
THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS STILL OVERHEAD AND ABUNDANT LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE
STILL PREVALENT. HOWEVER...WILL NOT INCLUDE MENTION IN THE TAFS THIS
TIME UNTIL COVERAGE PICKS UP ON AREA RADARS. SFC WINDS WILL REMAIN
LIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING...AND TYPICAL OVERNIGHT SHIFT TO AN
EASTERLY DIRECTION MAY BE VERY DELAYED OR NON-EXISTENT LATE TONIGHT.

SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA AND SOUTHWEST ARIZONA INCLUDING KIPL AND KBLH...
NO AVIATION CONCERNS THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING WITH JUST OCCASIONAL
HIGH CLOUDS AND A FEW AFTERNOON CU TO DEAL WITH. SFC WINDS WILL
GENERALLY FAVOR A NORTHWEST DIRECTION...HOWEVER THE WEAK PRESSURE
GRADIENT MAY ALLOW EXTENDED PERIODS OF VARIABLE DIRECTION WITH
SPEEDS AOB 6 KT.

AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDED TAFS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY...
STRONG HIGH PRESSURE WILL PROVIDE SEASONABLY WARM AND DRY CONDITIONS
TO THE DISTRICT DURING THE END OF OF THIS WEEK INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
WITH TEMPERATURES SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL...AFTERNOON HUMIDITY LEVELS
WILL REGULARLY FALL INTO A 15 TO 25 PERCENT RANGE WITH GOOD
OVERNIGHT RECOVERY. WINDS WILL FAVOR A NORTH TO NORTHEAST TRAJECTORY
THROUGH THE PERIOD...WITH SOME OCCASIONAL GUSTINESS OVER RIDGE TOPS
BUT ALL IN ALL VERY TYPICAL SPEEDS. OVERALL...FIRE DANGER WILL BE
LIMITED DURING THIS TIME FRAME.

&&

.PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

AZ...NONE.

CA...NONE.

&&

$$

VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/PHOENIX

DISCUSSION...PERCHA/CB
AVIATION...NOLTE/MO
FIRE WEATHER...MO












000
FXUS65 KPSR 031625
AFDPSR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PHOENIX AZ
925 AM MST TUE MAR 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE...THAT WILL BE MOVING SLOWLY SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE
REGION...WILL KEEP THE WEATHER RATHER UNSETTLED AND COOL THROUGH
WEDNESDAY. A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS...AND EVEN A FEW THUNDERSTORMS
CAN BE EXPECTED OVER SOUTH CENTRAL ARIZONA THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING.
A RETURN TO ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES IS LIKELY BY THURSDAY...INTO
THE WEEKEND AS HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM BUILDS OVER THE DESERT
SOUTHWEST.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
INTERESTING WEATHER THIS MORNING AS PATCHY DENSE FOG DEVELOPED
ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE GREATER PHOENIX METROPOLITAN AREA...AND MUCH
OF NORTHWEST PINAL COUNTY. A TROF OF LOW PRESSURE CONTINUED TO SAG
SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE DESERT SOUTHWEST WITH THE TROF AXIS RUNNING
NE-SW ACROSS FAR SERN CA/SRN NEVADA. ORIENTATION OF THE TROF PLACED
A WEAK SWLY FLOW ACROSS THE LOWER DESERTS WHICH CONTINUED TO ADVECT
IN MODEST AMOUNTS OF MOISTURE. OVERALL MOISTURE VALUES ARE LESS THAN
24 HOURS AGO...WITH PWAT VALUES RUNNING AROUND ONE HALF INCH...BUT
THE BOUNDARY LAYER REMAINS QUITE MOIST. SURFACE DEWPOINTS ACROSS THE
CENTRAL DESERTS WERE RUNNING IN THE MID TO UPPER 40S AT 9 AM. SOME
UNEXPECTED CLEARING EARLY THIS MORNING ALLOWED SURFACE TEMPS TO FALL
OFF AND REACH THE CROSSOVER TEMPERATURE AND AS SUCH PATCHY DENSE FOG
DEVELOPED IN THE GREATER PHOENIX AREA...DROPPING VIS AT SKY HARBOR
TO 1/4 MILE. OTHER AREAS...NEAR SOUTH MOUNTAIN...ALONG INTERSTATE 8
AND THE SALT RIVER BED...AND ESPECIALLY SOUTHEAST OF THE VALLEY IN
CASA GRANDE...SAW LOCALLY DENSE FOG WITH VIS VALUES DOWN AT OR BELOW
1/4 MILE. WE ISSUED A DENSE FOG ADVISORY FOR ZONE 28 EFFECTIVE UNTIL
10 AM.

FOR THE REST OF TODAY...THE FOG WILL GRADUALLY ERODE UNDER THE
INFLUENCE OF INCREASING SUN/MIXING...AND WE WILL SEE PARTLY CLOUDY
SKIES THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. AS THE TROF AXIS SLOWLY MOVES IN FROM
THE WEST TODAY AND THIS EVENING THERE WILL BE SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY
TO ALLOW FOR A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS OR AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS.
DYNAMICS ARE RATHER WEAK...AS THE WIND FIELDS ASSOCIATED WITH THE
PASSING TROF ARE NOT VERY IMPRESSIVE...SO ANY STORM THAT DEVELOPS
WILL BE ON THE WEAK SIDE AS WELL. FORECASTS HAVE BEEN TWEAKED FOR
CURRENT SKY AND WEATHER TRENDS AND ARE IN GOOD SHAPE FOR NOW.

.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...
AFTER A RATHER WET AND COOL MONDAY...WITH SOME OF THE MOST FAVORED
AREAS ACROSS NORTHERN MARICOPA COUNTY SEEING UP TO AN INCH OF
RAIN...TODAY LOOKS LIKE IT WILL BE A QUIETER ONE...AS THE UPPER TROF
THAT BROUGHT US ALL THE RAIN AND CLOUDS HAS NOW MOVED OFF WELL TO
OUR EAST...INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS.

HOWEVER...THE WEATHER TODAY AND TONIGHT STILL LOOKS LIKE IT WILL BE
RATHER UNSETTLED...WITH ISOLATED-TO-SCATTERED SHOWERS TO CONTINUE
OVER SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA...ESPECIALLY OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN
NORTH AND EAST OF PHOENIX. THIS CONTINUATION OF SHOWER CHANCES IS
DUE TO A COMBINATION OF MOIST SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT THAT IS BEING
GENERATED BY ANOTHER UPPER LOW CENTER THAT IS NOW POSITIONED OFF THE
SOUTHERN CA COAST THIS MORNING...AND A COUPLE OF WEAK SHORTWAVES
THAT WILL BE DROPPING SOUTHWARD ACROSS AZ AS THE STRONG LONG-WAVE
UPPER TROF THEY ARE EMBEDDED IN MOVES SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE
CENTRAL ROCKIES INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS. ALTHOUGH MOISTURE LEVELS
THROUGH THE COLUMN LOOK TO BE RATHER LIMITED...WITH PWATS IN THE
0.50-0.60 INCH RANGE...THERE APPEARS THAT THERE WILL BE ENOUGH
DYNAMICS/INSTABILITY TO TRIGGER LIGHT SHOWERS...AND EVEN ONE OR TWO
THUNDERSTORMS TODAY AND TONIGHT AS THE SHORTWAVES PASS ACROSS THE
REGION...WITH PERHAPS A TENTH OF AN INCH OR SO OF RAIN FALLING FROM
THE HEAVIER SHOWERS...AND EVEN A DUSTING OF SNOW OVER OUR HIGHEST
PEAKS. TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW NORMAL TODAY...WITH
850MB TEMPERATURES AROUND 5C KEEPING LOWER DESERT HIGHS DOWN IN THE
60S AND LOW 70S...IN SPITE OF CONSIDERABLE SUNSHINE. THE CHANCES FOR
PRECIP WILL PRETTY MUCH END BY MIDDAY ON WEDNESDAY AS THE UPPER LOW
THAT IS NOW OFF THE SOUTHERN CA COAST MOVES OFF WELL TO OUR SOUTH
AND EAST...CUTTING OFF THE MOISTURE FEED FROM THE PACIFIC...AND
RIDGING BEGINS TO BUILD IN FROM THE WEST BEHIND THE MAIN LONG-WAVE
TROF.

THURSDAY...

A DRYING AND SUBSIDENT NORTHERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL SET
UP ACROSS THE AREA AS HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT STARTS TO BUILD ALONG THE
CA COAST. THIS WILL LEAD TO SUNNY SKIES...AND CONTINUED WARMING
WITH HIGH TEMPS REACHING INTO THE LOW TO MID 70S...AND TOWARDS
SEASONAL NORMALS.

FRIDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...
A WARMING TREND IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THIS PERIOD UNDER
MAINLY CLEAR SKIES AS HIGH PRESSURE STRENGTHENS OVER THE
REGION...WITH A GOOD CHANCE FOR HIGHS NEAR 80 ACROSS THE LOWER
DESERTS BY THE WEEKEND...AND EVEN INTO THE MID 80S BY NEXT TUESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...
SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA INCLUDING KPHX...KIWA AND KSDL...
LOCALIZED AND PATCHY FOG DEVELOPMENT WILL CONTINUE TO FAVOR AREAS OF
THE SOUTHEAST PHX METRO AND NW PINAL COUNTY THROUGH THE MORNING...AT
TIMES GENERATING LOCALLY DENSE VSBYS INTO IFR VALUES. ANOTHER ROUND
OF MID TO HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS WILL APPROACH FROM THE SOUTHWEST...WHICH
SHOULD HELP MITIGATE FURTHER FOG DEVELOPMENT THIS MORNING. CANNOT
RULE OUT ISOLATED SHOWER DEVELOP LATER INTO THE DAY/AFTERNOON WITH
THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS STILL OVERHEAD AND ABUNDANT LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE
STILL PREVALENT. HOWEVER...WILL NOT INCLUDE MENTION IN THE TAFS THIS
TIME UNTIL COVERAGE PICKS UP ON AREA RADARS. SFC WINDS WILL REMAIN
LIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING...AND TYPICAL OVERNIGHT SHIFT TO AN
EASTERLY DIRECTION MAY BE VERY DELAYED OR NON-EXISTENT LATE TONIGHT.

SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA AND SOUTHWEST ARIZONA INCLUDING KIPL AND KBLH...
NO AVIATION CONCERNS THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING WITH JUST OCCASIONAL
HIGH CLOUDS AND A FEW AFTERNOON CU TO DEAL WITH. SFC WINDS WILL
GENERALLY FAVOR A NORTHWEST DIRECTION...HOWEVER THE WEAK PRESSURE
GRADIENT MAY ALLOW EXTENDED PERIODS OF VARIABLE DIRECTION WITH
SPEEDS AOB 6 KT.

AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDED TAFS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY...
STRONG HIGH PRESSURE WILL PROVIDE SEASONABLY WARM AND DRY CONDITIONS
TO THE DISTRICT DURING THE END OF OF THIS WEEK INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
WITH TEMPERATURES SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL...AFTERNOON HUMIDITY LEVELS
WILL REGULARLY FALL INTO A 15 TO 25 PERCENT RANGE WITH GOOD
OVERNIGHT RECOVERY. WINDS WILL FAVOR A NORTH TO NORTHEAST TRAJECTORY
THROUGH THE PERIOD...WITH SOME OCCASIONAL GUSTINESS OVER RIDGE TOPS
BUT ALL IN ALL VERY TYPICAL SPEEDS. OVERALL...FIRE DANGER WILL BE
LIMITED DURING THIS TIME FRAME.

&&

.PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

AZ...NONE.

CA...NONE.

&&

$$

VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/PHOENIX

DISCUSSION...PERCHA/CB
AVIATION...NOLTE/MO
FIRE WEATHER...MO












000
FXUS65 KPSR 031625
AFDPSR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PHOENIX AZ
925 AM MST TUE MAR 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE...THAT WILL BE MOVING SLOWLY SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE
REGION...WILL KEEP THE WEATHER RATHER UNSETTLED AND COOL THROUGH
WEDNESDAY. A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS...AND EVEN A FEW THUNDERSTORMS
CAN BE EXPECTED OVER SOUTH CENTRAL ARIZONA THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING.
A RETURN TO ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES IS LIKELY BY THURSDAY...INTO
THE WEEKEND AS HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM BUILDS OVER THE DESERT
SOUTHWEST.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
INTERESTING WEATHER THIS MORNING AS PATCHY DENSE FOG DEVELOPED
ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE GREATER PHOENIX METROPOLITAN AREA...AND MUCH
OF NORTHWEST PINAL COUNTY. A TROF OF LOW PRESSURE CONTINUED TO SAG
SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE DESERT SOUTHWEST WITH THE TROF AXIS RUNNING
NE-SW ACROSS FAR SERN CA/SRN NEVADA. ORIENTATION OF THE TROF PLACED
A WEAK SWLY FLOW ACROSS THE LOWER DESERTS WHICH CONTINUED TO ADVECT
IN MODEST AMOUNTS OF MOISTURE. OVERALL MOISTURE VALUES ARE LESS THAN
24 HOURS AGO...WITH PWAT VALUES RUNNING AROUND ONE HALF INCH...BUT
THE BOUNDARY LAYER REMAINS QUITE MOIST. SURFACE DEWPOINTS ACROSS THE
CENTRAL DESERTS WERE RUNNING IN THE MID TO UPPER 40S AT 9 AM. SOME
UNEXPECTED CLEARING EARLY THIS MORNING ALLOWED SURFACE TEMPS TO FALL
OFF AND REACH THE CROSSOVER TEMPERATURE AND AS SUCH PATCHY DENSE FOG
DEVELOPED IN THE GREATER PHOENIX AREA...DROPPING VIS AT SKY HARBOR
TO 1/4 MILE. OTHER AREAS...NEAR SOUTH MOUNTAIN...ALONG INTERSTATE 8
AND THE SALT RIVER BED...AND ESPECIALLY SOUTHEAST OF THE VALLEY IN
CASA GRANDE...SAW LOCALLY DENSE FOG WITH VIS VALUES DOWN AT OR BELOW
1/4 MILE. WE ISSUED A DENSE FOG ADVISORY FOR ZONE 28 EFFECTIVE UNTIL
10 AM.

FOR THE REST OF TODAY...THE FOG WILL GRADUALLY ERODE UNDER THE
INFLUENCE OF INCREASING SUN/MIXING...AND WE WILL SEE PARTLY CLOUDY
SKIES THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. AS THE TROF AXIS SLOWLY MOVES IN FROM
THE WEST TODAY AND THIS EVENING THERE WILL BE SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY
TO ALLOW FOR A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS OR AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS.
DYNAMICS ARE RATHER WEAK...AS THE WIND FIELDS ASSOCIATED WITH THE
PASSING TROF ARE NOT VERY IMPRESSIVE...SO ANY STORM THAT DEVELOPS
WILL BE ON THE WEAK SIDE AS WELL. FORECASTS HAVE BEEN TWEAKED FOR
CURRENT SKY AND WEATHER TRENDS AND ARE IN GOOD SHAPE FOR NOW.

.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...
AFTER A RATHER WET AND COOL MONDAY...WITH SOME OF THE MOST FAVORED
AREAS ACROSS NORTHERN MARICOPA COUNTY SEEING UP TO AN INCH OF
RAIN...TODAY LOOKS LIKE IT WILL BE A QUIETER ONE...AS THE UPPER TROF
THAT BROUGHT US ALL THE RAIN AND CLOUDS HAS NOW MOVED OFF WELL TO
OUR EAST...INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS.

HOWEVER...THE WEATHER TODAY AND TONIGHT STILL LOOKS LIKE IT WILL BE
RATHER UNSETTLED...WITH ISOLATED-TO-SCATTERED SHOWERS TO CONTINUE
OVER SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA...ESPECIALLY OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN
NORTH AND EAST OF PHOENIX. THIS CONTINUATION OF SHOWER CHANCES IS
DUE TO A COMBINATION OF MOIST SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT THAT IS BEING
GENERATED BY ANOTHER UPPER LOW CENTER THAT IS NOW POSITIONED OFF THE
SOUTHERN CA COAST THIS MORNING...AND A COUPLE OF WEAK SHORTWAVES
THAT WILL BE DROPPING SOUTHWARD ACROSS AZ AS THE STRONG LONG-WAVE
UPPER TROF THEY ARE EMBEDDED IN MOVES SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE
CENTRAL ROCKIES INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS. ALTHOUGH MOISTURE LEVELS
THROUGH THE COLUMN LOOK TO BE RATHER LIMITED...WITH PWATS IN THE
0.50-0.60 INCH RANGE...THERE APPEARS THAT THERE WILL BE ENOUGH
DYNAMICS/INSTABILITY TO TRIGGER LIGHT SHOWERS...AND EVEN ONE OR TWO
THUNDERSTORMS TODAY AND TONIGHT AS THE SHORTWAVES PASS ACROSS THE
REGION...WITH PERHAPS A TENTH OF AN INCH OR SO OF RAIN FALLING FROM
THE HEAVIER SHOWERS...AND EVEN A DUSTING OF SNOW OVER OUR HIGHEST
PEAKS. TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW NORMAL TODAY...WITH
850MB TEMPERATURES AROUND 5C KEEPING LOWER DESERT HIGHS DOWN IN THE
60S AND LOW 70S...IN SPITE OF CONSIDERABLE SUNSHINE. THE CHANCES FOR
PRECIP WILL PRETTY MUCH END BY MIDDAY ON WEDNESDAY AS THE UPPER LOW
THAT IS NOW OFF THE SOUTHERN CA COAST MOVES OFF WELL TO OUR SOUTH
AND EAST...CUTTING OFF THE MOISTURE FEED FROM THE PACIFIC...AND
RIDGING BEGINS TO BUILD IN FROM THE WEST BEHIND THE MAIN LONG-WAVE
TROF.

THURSDAY...

A DRYING AND SUBSIDENT NORTHERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL SET
UP ACROSS THE AREA AS HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT STARTS TO BUILD ALONG THE
CA COAST. THIS WILL LEAD TO SUNNY SKIES...AND CONTINUED WARMING
WITH HIGH TEMPS REACHING INTO THE LOW TO MID 70S...AND TOWARDS
SEASONAL NORMALS.

FRIDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...
A WARMING TREND IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THIS PERIOD UNDER
MAINLY CLEAR SKIES AS HIGH PRESSURE STRENGTHENS OVER THE
REGION...WITH A GOOD CHANCE FOR HIGHS NEAR 80 ACROSS THE LOWER
DESERTS BY THE WEEKEND...AND EVEN INTO THE MID 80S BY NEXT TUESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...
SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA INCLUDING KPHX...KIWA AND KSDL...
LOCALIZED AND PATCHY FOG DEVELOPMENT WILL CONTINUE TO FAVOR AREAS OF
THE SOUTHEAST PHX METRO AND NW PINAL COUNTY THROUGH THE MORNING...AT
TIMES GENERATING LOCALLY DENSE VSBYS INTO IFR VALUES. ANOTHER ROUND
OF MID TO HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS WILL APPROACH FROM THE SOUTHWEST...WHICH
SHOULD HELP MITIGATE FURTHER FOG DEVELOPMENT THIS MORNING. CANNOT
RULE OUT ISOLATED SHOWER DEVELOP LATER INTO THE DAY/AFTERNOON WITH
THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS STILL OVERHEAD AND ABUNDANT LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE
STILL PREVALENT. HOWEVER...WILL NOT INCLUDE MENTION IN THE TAFS THIS
TIME UNTIL COVERAGE PICKS UP ON AREA RADARS. SFC WINDS WILL REMAIN
LIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING...AND TYPICAL OVERNIGHT SHIFT TO AN
EASTERLY DIRECTION MAY BE VERY DELAYED OR NON-EXISTENT LATE TONIGHT.

SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA AND SOUTHWEST ARIZONA INCLUDING KIPL AND KBLH...
NO AVIATION CONCERNS THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING WITH JUST OCCASIONAL
HIGH CLOUDS AND A FEW AFTERNOON CU TO DEAL WITH. SFC WINDS WILL
GENERALLY FAVOR A NORTHWEST DIRECTION...HOWEVER THE WEAK PRESSURE
GRADIENT MAY ALLOW EXTENDED PERIODS OF VARIABLE DIRECTION WITH
SPEEDS AOB 6 KT.

AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDED TAFS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY...
STRONG HIGH PRESSURE WILL PROVIDE SEASONABLY WARM AND DRY CONDITIONS
TO THE DISTRICT DURING THE END OF OF THIS WEEK INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
WITH TEMPERATURES SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL...AFTERNOON HUMIDITY LEVELS
WILL REGULARLY FALL INTO A 15 TO 25 PERCENT RANGE WITH GOOD
OVERNIGHT RECOVERY. WINDS WILL FAVOR A NORTH TO NORTHEAST TRAJECTORY
THROUGH THE PERIOD...WITH SOME OCCASIONAL GUSTINESS OVER RIDGE TOPS
BUT ALL IN ALL VERY TYPICAL SPEEDS. OVERALL...FIRE DANGER WILL BE
LIMITED DURING THIS TIME FRAME.

&&

.PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

AZ...NONE.

CA...NONE.

&&

$$

VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/PHOENIX

DISCUSSION...PERCHA/CB
AVIATION...NOLTE/MO
FIRE WEATHER...MO












000
FXUS65 KPSR 031547
AFDPSR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PHOENIX AZ
847 AM MST TUE MAR 3 2015

.UPDATE...TO AVIATION DISCUSSION...


&&

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE...THAT WILL BE MOVING SLOWLY SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE
REGION...WILL KEEP THE WEATHER RATHER UNSETTLED AND COOL THROUGH
WEDNESDAY. A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS...AND EVEN A FEW THUNDERSTORMS
CAN BE EXPECTED OVER SOUTH CENTRAL ARIZONA THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING.
A RETURN TO ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES IS LIKELY BY THURSDAY...INTO
THE WEEKEND AS HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM BUILDS OVER THE DESERT
SOUTHWEST.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

AFTER A RATHER WET AND COOL MONDAY...WITH SOME OF THE MOST FAVORED
AREAS ACROSS NORTHERN MARICOPA COUNTY SEEING UP TO AN INCH OF
RAIN...TODAY LOOKS LIKE IT WILL BE A QUIETER ONE...AS THE UPPER TROF
THAT BROUGHT US ALL THE RAIN AND CLOUDS HAS NOW MOVED OFF WELL TO
OUR EAST...INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS.

HOWEVER...THE WEATHER TODAY AND TONIGHT STILL LOOKS LIKE IT WILL BE
RATHER UNSETTLED...WITH ISOLATED-TO-SCATTERED SHOWERS TO CONTINUE
OVER SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA...ESPECIALLY OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN
NORTH AND EAST OF PHOENIX. THIS CONTINUATION OF SHOWER CHANCES IS
DUE TO A COMBINATION OF MOIST SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT THAT IS BEING
GENERATED BY ANOTHER UPPER LOW CENTER THAT IS NOW POSITIONED OFF THE
SOUTHERN CA COAST THIS MORNING...AND A COUPLE OF WEAK SHORTWAVES
THAT WILL BE DROPPING SOUTHWARD ACROSS AZ AS THE STRONG LONG-WAVE
UPPER TROF THEY ARE EMBEDDED IN MOVES SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE
CENTRAL ROCKIES INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS. ALTHOUGH MOISTURE LEVELS
THROUGH THE COLUMN LOOK TO BE RATHER LIMITED...WITH PWATS IN THE
0.50-0.60 INCH RANGE...THERE APPEARS THAT THERE WILL BE ENOUGH
DYNAMICS/INSTABILITY TO TRIGGER LIGHT SHOWERS...AND EVEN ONE OR TWO
THUNDERSTORMS TODAY AND TONIGHT AS THE SHORTWAVES PASS ACROSS THE
REGION...WITH PERHAPS A TENTH OF AN INCH OR SO OF RAIN FALLING FROM
THE HEAVIER SHOWERS...AND EVEN A DUSTING OF SNOW OVER OUR HIGHEST
PEAKS. TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW NORMAL TODAY...WITH
850MB TEMPERATURES AROUND 5C KEEPING LOWER DESERT HIGHS DOWN IN THE
60S AND LOW 70S...IN SPITE OF CONSIDERABLE SUNSHINE. THE CHANCES FOR
PRECIP WILL PRETTY MUCH END BY MIDDAY ON WEDNESDAY AS THE UPPER LOW
THAT IS NOW OFF THE SOUTHERN CA COAST MOVES OFF WELL TO OUR SOUTH
AND EAST...CUTTING OFF THE MOISTURE FEED FROM THE PACIFIC...AND
RIDGING BEGINS TO BUILD IN FROM THE WEST BEHIND THE MAIN LONG-WAVE
TROF.

THURSDAY...

A DRYING AND SUBSIDENT NORTHERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL SET
UP ACROSS THE AREA AS HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT STARTS TO BUILD ALONG THE
CA COAST. THIS WILL LEAD TO SUNNY SKIES...AND CONTINUED WARMING
WITH HIGH TEMPS REACHING INTO THE LOW TO MID 70S...AND TOWARDS
SEASONAL NORMALS.

FRIDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...
A WARMING TREND IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THIS PERIOD UNDER
MAINLY CLEAR SKIES AS HIGH PRESSURE STRENGTHENS OVER THE
REGION...WITH A GOOD CHANCE FOR HIGHS NEAR 80 ACROSS THE LOWER
DESERTS BY THE WEEKEND...AND EVEN INTO THE MID 80S BY NEXT TUESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...
SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA INCLUDING KPHX...KIWA AND KSDL...
LOCALIZED AND PATCHY FOG DEVELOPMENT WILL CONTINUE TO FAVOR AREAS OF
THE SOUTHEAST PHX METRO AND NW PINAL COUNTY THROUGH THE MORNING...AT
TIMES GENERATING LOCALLY DENSE VSBYS INTO IFR VALUES. ANOTHER ROUND
OF MID TO HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS WILL APPROACH FROM THE SOUTHWEST...WHICH
SHOULD HELP MITIGATE FURTHER FOG DEVELOPMENT THIS MORNING. CANNOT
RULE OUT ISOLATED SHOWER DEVELOP LATER INTO THE DAY/AFTERNOON WITH
THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS STILL OVERHEAD AND ABUNDANT LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE
STILL PREVALENT. HOWEVER...WILL NOT INCLUDE MENTION IN THE TAFS THIS
TIME UNTIL COVERAGE PICKS UP ON AREA RADARS. SFC WINDS WILL REMAIN
LIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING...AND TYPICAL OVERNIGHT SHIFT TO AN
EASTERLY DIRECTION MAY BE VERY DELAYED OR NON-EXISTENT LATE TONIGHT.

SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA AND SOUTHWEST ARIZONA INCLUDING KIPL AND KBLH...
NO AVIATION CONCERNS THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING WITH JUST OCCASIONAL
HIGH CLOUDS AND A FEW AFTERNOON CU TO DEAL WITH. SFC WINDS WILL
GENERALLY FAVOR A NORTHWEST DIRECTION...HOWEVER THE WEAK PRESSURE
GRADIENT MAY ALLOW EXTENDED PERIODS OF VARIABLE DIRECTION WITH
SPEEDS AOB 6 KT.

AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDED TAFS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY...
STRONG HIGH PRESSURE WILL PROVIDE SEASONABLY WARM AND DRY CONDITIONS
TO THE DISTRICT DURING THE END OF OF THIS WEEK INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
WITH TEMPERATURES SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL...AFTERNOON HUMIDITY LEVELS
WILL REGULARLY FALL INTO A 15 TO 25 PERCENT RANGE WITH GOOD
OVERNIGHT RECOVERY. WINDS WILL FAVOR A NORTH TO NORTHEAST TRAJECTORY
THROUGH THE PERIOD...WITH SOME OCCASIONAL GUSTINESS OVER RIDGE TOPS
BUT ALL IN ALL VERY TYPICAL SPEEDS. OVERALL...FIRE DANGER WILL BE
LIMITED DURING THIS TIME FRAME.

&&

.PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

AZ...NONE.

CA...NONE.

&&

$$

VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/PHOENIX

DISCUSSION...PERCHA/CB
AVIATION...NOLTE/MO
FIRE WEATHER...MO










000
FXUS65 KPSR 031547
AFDPSR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PHOENIX AZ
847 AM MST TUE MAR 3 2015

.UPDATE...TO AVIATION DISCUSSION...


&&

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE...THAT WILL BE MOVING SLOWLY SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE
REGION...WILL KEEP THE WEATHER RATHER UNSETTLED AND COOL THROUGH
WEDNESDAY. A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS...AND EVEN A FEW THUNDERSTORMS
CAN BE EXPECTED OVER SOUTH CENTRAL ARIZONA THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING.
A RETURN TO ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES IS LIKELY BY THURSDAY...INTO
THE WEEKEND AS HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM BUILDS OVER THE DESERT
SOUTHWEST.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

AFTER A RATHER WET AND COOL MONDAY...WITH SOME OF THE MOST FAVORED
AREAS ACROSS NORTHERN MARICOPA COUNTY SEEING UP TO AN INCH OF
RAIN...TODAY LOOKS LIKE IT WILL BE A QUIETER ONE...AS THE UPPER TROF
THAT BROUGHT US ALL THE RAIN AND CLOUDS HAS NOW MOVED OFF WELL TO
OUR EAST...INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS.

HOWEVER...THE WEATHER TODAY AND TONIGHT STILL LOOKS LIKE IT WILL BE
RATHER UNSETTLED...WITH ISOLATED-TO-SCATTERED SHOWERS TO CONTINUE
OVER SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA...ESPECIALLY OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN
NORTH AND EAST OF PHOENIX. THIS CONTINUATION OF SHOWER CHANCES IS
DUE TO A COMBINATION OF MOIST SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT THAT IS BEING
GENERATED BY ANOTHER UPPER LOW CENTER THAT IS NOW POSITIONED OFF THE
SOUTHERN CA COAST THIS MORNING...AND A COUPLE OF WEAK SHORTWAVES
THAT WILL BE DROPPING SOUTHWARD ACROSS AZ AS THE STRONG LONG-WAVE
UPPER TROF THEY ARE EMBEDDED IN MOVES SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE
CENTRAL ROCKIES INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS. ALTHOUGH MOISTURE LEVELS
THROUGH THE COLUMN LOOK TO BE RATHER LIMITED...WITH PWATS IN THE
0.50-0.60 INCH RANGE...THERE APPEARS THAT THERE WILL BE ENOUGH
DYNAMICS/INSTABILITY TO TRIGGER LIGHT SHOWERS...AND EVEN ONE OR TWO
THUNDERSTORMS TODAY AND TONIGHT AS THE SHORTWAVES PASS ACROSS THE
REGION...WITH PERHAPS A TENTH OF AN INCH OR SO OF RAIN FALLING FROM
THE HEAVIER SHOWERS...AND EVEN A DUSTING OF SNOW OVER OUR HIGHEST
PEAKS. TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW NORMAL TODAY...WITH
850MB TEMPERATURES AROUND 5C KEEPING LOWER DESERT HIGHS DOWN IN THE
60S AND LOW 70S...IN SPITE OF CONSIDERABLE SUNSHINE. THE CHANCES FOR
PRECIP WILL PRETTY MUCH END BY MIDDAY ON WEDNESDAY AS THE UPPER LOW
THAT IS NOW OFF THE SOUTHERN CA COAST MOVES OFF WELL TO OUR SOUTH
AND EAST...CUTTING OFF THE MOISTURE FEED FROM THE PACIFIC...AND
RIDGING BEGINS TO BUILD IN FROM THE WEST BEHIND THE MAIN LONG-WAVE
TROF.

THURSDAY...

A DRYING AND SUBSIDENT NORTHERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL SET
UP ACROSS THE AREA AS HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT STARTS TO BUILD ALONG THE
CA COAST. THIS WILL LEAD TO SUNNY SKIES...AND CONTINUED WARMING
WITH HIGH TEMPS REACHING INTO THE LOW TO MID 70S...AND TOWARDS
SEASONAL NORMALS.

FRIDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...
A WARMING TREND IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THIS PERIOD UNDER
MAINLY CLEAR SKIES AS HIGH PRESSURE STRENGTHENS OVER THE
REGION...WITH A GOOD CHANCE FOR HIGHS NEAR 80 ACROSS THE LOWER
DESERTS BY THE WEEKEND...AND EVEN INTO THE MID 80S BY NEXT TUESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...
SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA INCLUDING KPHX...KIWA AND KSDL...
LOCALIZED AND PATCHY FOG DEVELOPMENT WILL CONTINUE TO FAVOR AREAS OF
THE SOUTHEAST PHX METRO AND NW PINAL COUNTY THROUGH THE MORNING...AT
TIMES GENERATING LOCALLY DENSE VSBYS INTO IFR VALUES. ANOTHER ROUND
OF MID TO HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS WILL APPROACH FROM THE SOUTHWEST...WHICH
SHOULD HELP MITIGATE FURTHER FOG DEVELOPMENT THIS MORNING. CANNOT
RULE OUT ISOLATED SHOWER DEVELOP LATER INTO THE DAY/AFTERNOON WITH
THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS STILL OVERHEAD AND ABUNDANT LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE
STILL PREVALENT. HOWEVER...WILL NOT INCLUDE MENTION IN THE TAFS THIS
TIME UNTIL COVERAGE PICKS UP ON AREA RADARS. SFC WINDS WILL REMAIN
LIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING...AND TYPICAL OVERNIGHT SHIFT TO AN
EASTERLY DIRECTION MAY BE VERY DELAYED OR NON-EXISTENT LATE TONIGHT.

SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA AND SOUTHWEST ARIZONA INCLUDING KIPL AND KBLH...
NO AVIATION CONCERNS THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING WITH JUST OCCASIONAL
HIGH CLOUDS AND A FEW AFTERNOON CU TO DEAL WITH. SFC WINDS WILL
GENERALLY FAVOR A NORTHWEST DIRECTION...HOWEVER THE WEAK PRESSURE
GRADIENT MAY ALLOW EXTENDED PERIODS OF VARIABLE DIRECTION WITH
SPEEDS AOB 6 KT.

AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDED TAFS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY...
STRONG HIGH PRESSURE WILL PROVIDE SEASONABLY WARM AND DRY CONDITIONS
TO THE DISTRICT DURING THE END OF OF THIS WEEK INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
WITH TEMPERATURES SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL...AFTERNOON HUMIDITY LEVELS
WILL REGULARLY FALL INTO A 15 TO 25 PERCENT RANGE WITH GOOD
OVERNIGHT RECOVERY. WINDS WILL FAVOR A NORTH TO NORTHEAST TRAJECTORY
THROUGH THE PERIOD...WITH SOME OCCASIONAL GUSTINESS OVER RIDGE TOPS
BUT ALL IN ALL VERY TYPICAL SPEEDS. OVERALL...FIRE DANGER WILL BE
LIMITED DURING THIS TIME FRAME.

&&

.PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

AZ...NONE.

CA...NONE.

&&

$$

VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/PHOENIX

DISCUSSION...PERCHA/CB
AVIATION...NOLTE/MO
FIRE WEATHER...MO









000
FXUS65 KPSR 031207
AFDPSR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PHOENIX AZ
505 AM MST TUE MAR 3 2015

...UPDATED AVIATION AND FIRE WEATHER...

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE...THAT WILL BE MOVING SLOWLY SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE
REGION...WILL KEEP THE WEATHER RATHER UNSETTLED AND COOL THROUGH
WEDNESDAY. A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS...AND EVEN A FEW THUNDERSTORMS
CAN BE EXPECTED OVER SOUTH CENTRAL ARIZONA THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING.
A RETURN TO ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES IS LIKELY BY THURSDAY...INTO
THE WEEKEND AS HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM BUILDS OVER THE DESERT
SOUTHWEST.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

AFTER A RATHER WET AND COOL MONDAY...WITH SOME OF THE MOST FAVORED
AREAS ACROSS NORTHERN MARICOPA COUNTY SEEING UP TO AN INCH OF
RAIN...TODAY LOOKS LIKE IT WILL BE A QUIETER ONE...AS THE UPPER TROF
THAT BROUGHT US ALL THE RAIN AND CLOUDS HAS NOW MOVED OFF WELL TO
OUR EAST...INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS.

HOWEVER...THE WEATHER TODAY AND TONIGHT STILL LOOKS LIKE IT WILL BE
RATHER UNSETTLED...WITH ISOLATED-TO-SCATTERED SHOWERS TO CONTINUE
OVER SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA...ESPECIALLY OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN
NORTH AND EAST OF PHOENIX. THIS CONTINUATION OF SHOWER CHANCES IS
DUE TO A COMBINATION OF MOIST SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT THAT IS BEING
GENERATED BY ANOTHER UPPER LOW CENTER THAT IS NOW POSITIONED OFF THE
SOUTHERN CA COAST THIS MORNING...AND A COUPLE OF WEAK SHORTWAVES
THAT WILL BE DROPPING SOUTHWARD ACROSS AZ AS THE STRONG LONG-WAVE
UPPER TROF THEY ARE EMBEDDED IN MOVES SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE
CENTRAL ROCKIES INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS. ALTHOUGH MOISTURE LEVELS
THROUGH THE COLUMN LOOK TO BE RATHER LIMITED...WITH PWATS IN THE
0.50-0.60 INCH RANGE...THERE APPEARS THAT THERE WILL BE ENOUGH
DYNAMICS/INSTABILITY TO TRIGGER LIGHT SHOWERS...AND EVEN ONE OR TWO
THUNDERSTORMS TODAY AND TONIGHT AS THE SHORTWAVES PASS ACROSS THE
REGION...WITH PERHAPS A TENTH OF AN INCH OR SO OF RAIN FALLING FROM
THE HEAVIER SHOWERS...AND EVEN A DUSTING OF SNOW OVER OUR HIGHEST
PEAKS. TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW NORMAL TODAY...WITH
850MB TEMPERATURES AROUND 5C KEEPING LOWER DESERT HIGHS DOWN IN THE
60S AND LOW 70S...IN SPITE OF CONSIDERABLE SUNSHINE. THE CHANCES FOR
PRECIP WILL PRETTY MUCH END BY MIDDAY ON WEDNESDAY AS THE UPPER LOW
THAT IS NOW OFF THE SOUTHERN CA COAST MOVES OFF WELL TO OUR SOUTH
AND EAST...CUTTING OFF THE MOISTURE FEED FROM THE PACIFIC...AND
RIDGING BEGINS TO BUILD IN FROM THE WEST BEHIND THE MAIN LONG-WAVE
TROF.

THURSDAY...

A DRYING AND SUBSIDENT NORTHERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL SET
UP ACROSS THE AREA AS HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT STARTS TO BUILD ALONG THE
CA COAST. THIS WILL LEAD TO SUNNY SKIES...AND CONTINUED WARMING
WITH HIGH TEMPS REACHING INTO THE LOW TO MID 70S...AND TOWARDS
SEASONAL NORMALS.

FRIDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...
A WARMING TREND IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THIS PERIOD UNDER
MAINLY CLEAR SKIES AS HIGH PRESSURE STRENGTHENS OVER THE
REGION...WITH A GOOD CHANCE FOR HIGHS NEAR 80 ACROSS THE LOWER
DESERTS BY THE WEEKEND...AND EVEN INTO THE MID 80S BY NEXT TUESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...
SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA INCLUDING KPHX...KIWA AND KSDL...
AREAS OF SCT-BKN 4K-6K FT STRATO-CU HAVE BEEN SLOW TO CLEAR OVER
CNTRL ARIZONA THIS MORNING. MORE FEW-SCT CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY
PREVAIL MID MORNING...HOWEVER DAYTIME HEATING MAY ALLOW FOR BKN
REDEVELOPMENT DURING THE AFTERNOON...ALBEIT WITH BASE HEIGHTS ABOVE
6K FT. WHILE SOME MVFR HZ/BR MAY AFFECT KIWA BEFORE 15Z (MORE
REMOVED FROM THE CITY)...ANY MORE EXTENSIVE FOG WILL STAY WELL SOUTH
OF TERMINAL LOCATIONS. SFC WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY
MORNING...AND TYPICAL OVERNIGHT SHIFT TO AN EASTERLY DIRECTION MAY
BE VERY DELAYED OR NON-EXISTENT LATE TONIGHT.

SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA AND SOUTHWEST ARIZONA INCLUDING KIPL AND KBLH...
NO AVIATION CONCERNS THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING WITH JUST OCCASIONAL
HIGH CLOUDS AND A FEW AFTERNOON CU TO DEAL WITH. SFC WINDS WILL
GENERALLY FAVOR A NORTHWEST DIRECTION...HOWEVER THE WEAK PRESSURE
GRADIENT MAY ALLOW EXTENDED PERIODS OF VARIABLE DIRECTION WITH
SPEEDS AOB 6 KT.

AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDED TAFS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY...
STRONG HIGH PRESSURE WILL PROVIDE SEASONABLY WARM AND DRY CONDITIONS
TO THE DISTRICT DURING THE END OF OF THIS WEEK INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
WITH TEMPERATURES SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL...AFTERNOON HUMIDITY LEVELS
WILL REGULARLY FALL INTO A 15 TO 25 PERCENT RANGE WITH GOOD
OVERNIGHT RECOVERY. WINDS WILL FAVOR A NORTH TO NORTHEAST TRAJECTORY
THROUGH THE PERIOD...WITH SOME OCCASIONAL GUSTINESS OVER RIDGE TOPS
BUT ALL IN ALL VERY TYPICAL SPEEDS. OVERALL...FIRE DANGER WILL BE
LIMITED DURING THIS TIME FRAME.

&&

.PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

AZ...NONE.

CA...NONE.

&&

$$

VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/PHOENIX

DISCUSSION...PERCHA/CB
AVIATION...MO
FIRE WEATHER...MO







000
FXUS65 KPSR 031207
AFDPSR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PHOENIX AZ
505 AM MST TUE MAR 3 2015

...UPDATED AVIATION AND FIRE WEATHER...

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE...THAT WILL BE MOVING SLOWLY SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE
REGION...WILL KEEP THE WEATHER RATHER UNSETTLED AND COOL THROUGH
WEDNESDAY. A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS...AND EVEN A FEW THUNDERSTORMS
CAN BE EXPECTED OVER SOUTH CENTRAL ARIZONA THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING.
A RETURN TO ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES IS LIKELY BY THURSDAY...INTO
THE WEEKEND AS HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM BUILDS OVER THE DESERT
SOUTHWEST.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

AFTER A RATHER WET AND COOL MONDAY...WITH SOME OF THE MOST FAVORED
AREAS ACROSS NORTHERN MARICOPA COUNTY SEEING UP TO AN INCH OF
RAIN...TODAY LOOKS LIKE IT WILL BE A QUIETER ONE...AS THE UPPER TROF
THAT BROUGHT US ALL THE RAIN AND CLOUDS HAS NOW MOVED OFF WELL TO
OUR EAST...INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS.

HOWEVER...THE WEATHER TODAY AND TONIGHT STILL LOOKS LIKE IT WILL BE
RATHER UNSETTLED...WITH ISOLATED-TO-SCATTERED SHOWERS TO CONTINUE
OVER SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA...ESPECIALLY OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN
NORTH AND EAST OF PHOENIX. THIS CONTINUATION OF SHOWER CHANCES IS
DUE TO A COMBINATION OF MOIST SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT THAT IS BEING
GENERATED BY ANOTHER UPPER LOW CENTER THAT IS NOW POSITIONED OFF THE
SOUTHERN CA COAST THIS MORNING...AND A COUPLE OF WEAK SHORTWAVES
THAT WILL BE DROPPING SOUTHWARD ACROSS AZ AS THE STRONG LONG-WAVE
UPPER TROF THEY ARE EMBEDDED IN MOVES SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE
CENTRAL ROCKIES INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS. ALTHOUGH MOISTURE LEVELS
THROUGH THE COLUMN LOOK TO BE RATHER LIMITED...WITH PWATS IN THE
0.50-0.60 INCH RANGE...THERE APPEARS THAT THERE WILL BE ENOUGH
DYNAMICS/INSTABILITY TO TRIGGER LIGHT SHOWERS...AND EVEN ONE OR TWO
THUNDERSTORMS TODAY AND TONIGHT AS THE SHORTWAVES PASS ACROSS THE
REGION...WITH PERHAPS A TENTH OF AN INCH OR SO OF RAIN FALLING FROM
THE HEAVIER SHOWERS...AND EVEN A DUSTING OF SNOW OVER OUR HIGHEST
PEAKS. TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW NORMAL TODAY...WITH
850MB TEMPERATURES AROUND 5C KEEPING LOWER DESERT HIGHS DOWN IN THE
60S AND LOW 70S...IN SPITE OF CONSIDERABLE SUNSHINE. THE CHANCES FOR
PRECIP WILL PRETTY MUCH END BY MIDDAY ON WEDNESDAY AS THE UPPER LOW
THAT IS NOW OFF THE SOUTHERN CA COAST MOVES OFF WELL TO OUR SOUTH
AND EAST...CUTTING OFF THE MOISTURE FEED FROM THE PACIFIC...AND
RIDGING BEGINS TO BUILD IN FROM THE WEST BEHIND THE MAIN LONG-WAVE
TROF.

THURSDAY...

A DRYING AND SUBSIDENT NORTHERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL SET
UP ACROSS THE AREA AS HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT STARTS TO BUILD ALONG THE
CA COAST. THIS WILL LEAD TO SUNNY SKIES...AND CONTINUED WARMING
WITH HIGH TEMPS REACHING INTO THE LOW TO MID 70S...AND TOWARDS
SEASONAL NORMALS.

FRIDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...
A WARMING TREND IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THIS PERIOD UNDER
MAINLY CLEAR SKIES AS HIGH PRESSURE STRENGTHENS OVER THE
REGION...WITH A GOOD CHANCE FOR HIGHS NEAR 80 ACROSS THE LOWER
DESERTS BY THE WEEKEND...AND EVEN INTO THE MID 80S BY NEXT TUESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...
SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA INCLUDING KPHX...KIWA AND KSDL...
AREAS OF SCT-BKN 4K-6K FT STRATO-CU HAVE BEEN SLOW TO CLEAR OVER
CNTRL ARIZONA THIS MORNING. MORE FEW-SCT CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY
PREVAIL MID MORNING...HOWEVER DAYTIME HEATING MAY ALLOW FOR BKN
REDEVELOPMENT DURING THE AFTERNOON...ALBEIT WITH BASE HEIGHTS ABOVE
6K FT. WHILE SOME MVFR HZ/BR MAY AFFECT KIWA BEFORE 15Z (MORE
REMOVED FROM THE CITY)...ANY MORE EXTENSIVE FOG WILL STAY WELL SOUTH
OF TERMINAL LOCATIONS. SFC WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY
MORNING...AND TYPICAL OVERNIGHT SHIFT TO AN EASTERLY DIRECTION MAY
BE VERY DELAYED OR NON-EXISTENT LATE TONIGHT.

SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA AND SOUTHWEST ARIZONA INCLUDING KIPL AND KBLH...
NO AVIATION CONCERNS THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING WITH JUST OCCASIONAL
HIGH CLOUDS AND A FEW AFTERNOON CU TO DEAL WITH. SFC WINDS WILL
GENERALLY FAVOR A NORTHWEST DIRECTION...HOWEVER THE WEAK PRESSURE
GRADIENT MAY ALLOW EXTENDED PERIODS OF VARIABLE DIRECTION WITH
SPEEDS AOB 6 KT.

AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDED TAFS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY...
STRONG HIGH PRESSURE WILL PROVIDE SEASONABLY WARM AND DRY CONDITIONS
TO THE DISTRICT DURING THE END OF OF THIS WEEK INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
WITH TEMPERATURES SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL...AFTERNOON HUMIDITY LEVELS
WILL REGULARLY FALL INTO A 15 TO 25 PERCENT RANGE WITH GOOD
OVERNIGHT RECOVERY. WINDS WILL FAVOR A NORTH TO NORTHEAST TRAJECTORY
THROUGH THE PERIOD...WITH SOME OCCASIONAL GUSTINESS OVER RIDGE TOPS
BUT ALL IN ALL VERY TYPICAL SPEEDS. OVERALL...FIRE DANGER WILL BE
LIMITED DURING THIS TIME FRAME.

&&

.PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

AZ...NONE.

CA...NONE.

&&

$$

VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/PHOENIX

DISCUSSION...PERCHA/CB
AVIATION...MO
FIRE WEATHER...MO






000
FXUS65 KPSR 031207
AFDPSR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PHOENIX AZ
505 AM MST TUE MAR 3 2015

...UPDATED AVIATION AND FIRE WEATHER...

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE...THAT WILL BE MOVING SLOWLY SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE
REGION...WILL KEEP THE WEATHER RATHER UNSETTLED AND COOL THROUGH
WEDNESDAY. A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS...AND EVEN A FEW THUNDERSTORMS
CAN BE EXPECTED OVER SOUTH CENTRAL ARIZONA THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING.
A RETURN TO ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES IS LIKELY BY THURSDAY...INTO
THE WEEKEND AS HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM BUILDS OVER THE DESERT
SOUTHWEST.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

AFTER A RATHER WET AND COOL MONDAY...WITH SOME OF THE MOST FAVORED
AREAS ACROSS NORTHERN MARICOPA COUNTY SEEING UP TO AN INCH OF
RAIN...TODAY LOOKS LIKE IT WILL BE A QUIETER ONE...AS THE UPPER TROF
THAT BROUGHT US ALL THE RAIN AND CLOUDS HAS NOW MOVED OFF WELL TO
OUR EAST...INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS.

HOWEVER...THE WEATHER TODAY AND TONIGHT STILL LOOKS LIKE IT WILL BE
RATHER UNSETTLED...WITH ISOLATED-TO-SCATTERED SHOWERS TO CONTINUE
OVER SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA...ESPECIALLY OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN
NORTH AND EAST OF PHOENIX. THIS CONTINUATION OF SHOWER CHANCES IS
DUE TO A COMBINATION OF MOIST SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT THAT IS BEING
GENERATED BY ANOTHER UPPER LOW CENTER THAT IS NOW POSITIONED OFF THE
SOUTHERN CA COAST THIS MORNING...AND A COUPLE OF WEAK SHORTWAVES
THAT WILL BE DROPPING SOUTHWARD ACROSS AZ AS THE STRONG LONG-WAVE
UPPER TROF THEY ARE EMBEDDED IN MOVES SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE
CENTRAL ROCKIES INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS. ALTHOUGH MOISTURE LEVELS
THROUGH THE COLUMN LOOK TO BE RATHER LIMITED...WITH PWATS IN THE
0.50-0.60 INCH RANGE...THERE APPEARS THAT THERE WILL BE ENOUGH
DYNAMICS/INSTABILITY TO TRIGGER LIGHT SHOWERS...AND EVEN ONE OR TWO
THUNDERSTORMS TODAY AND TONIGHT AS THE SHORTWAVES PASS ACROSS THE
REGION...WITH PERHAPS A TENTH OF AN INCH OR SO OF RAIN FALLING FROM
THE HEAVIER SHOWERS...AND EVEN A DUSTING OF SNOW OVER OUR HIGHEST
PEAKS. TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW NORMAL TODAY...WITH
850MB TEMPERATURES AROUND 5C KEEPING LOWER DESERT HIGHS DOWN IN THE
60S AND LOW 70S...IN SPITE OF CONSIDERABLE SUNSHINE. THE CHANCES FOR
PRECIP WILL PRETTY MUCH END BY MIDDAY ON WEDNESDAY AS THE UPPER LOW
THAT IS NOW OFF THE SOUTHERN CA COAST MOVES OFF WELL TO OUR SOUTH
AND EAST...CUTTING OFF THE MOISTURE FEED FROM THE PACIFIC...AND
RIDGING BEGINS TO BUILD IN FROM THE WEST BEHIND THE MAIN LONG-WAVE
TROF.

THURSDAY...

A DRYING AND SUBSIDENT NORTHERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL SET
UP ACROSS THE AREA AS HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT STARTS TO BUILD ALONG THE
CA COAST. THIS WILL LEAD TO SUNNY SKIES...AND CONTINUED WARMING
WITH HIGH TEMPS REACHING INTO THE LOW TO MID 70S...AND TOWARDS
SEASONAL NORMALS.

FRIDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...
A WARMING TREND IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THIS PERIOD UNDER
MAINLY CLEAR SKIES AS HIGH PRESSURE STRENGTHENS OVER THE
REGION...WITH A GOOD CHANCE FOR HIGHS NEAR 80 ACROSS THE LOWER
DESERTS BY THE WEEKEND...AND EVEN INTO THE MID 80S BY NEXT TUESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...
SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA INCLUDING KPHX...KIWA AND KSDL...
AREAS OF SCT-BKN 4K-6K FT STRATO-CU HAVE BEEN SLOW TO CLEAR OVER
CNTRL ARIZONA THIS MORNING. MORE FEW-SCT CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY
PREVAIL MID MORNING...HOWEVER DAYTIME HEATING MAY ALLOW FOR BKN
REDEVELOPMENT DURING THE AFTERNOON...ALBEIT WITH BASE HEIGHTS ABOVE
6K FT. WHILE SOME MVFR HZ/BR MAY AFFECT KIWA BEFORE 15Z (MORE
REMOVED FROM THE CITY)...ANY MORE EXTENSIVE FOG WILL STAY WELL SOUTH
OF TERMINAL LOCATIONS. SFC WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY
MORNING...AND TYPICAL OVERNIGHT SHIFT TO AN EASTERLY DIRECTION MAY
BE VERY DELAYED OR NON-EXISTENT LATE TONIGHT.

SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA AND SOUTHWEST ARIZONA INCLUDING KIPL AND KBLH...
NO AVIATION CONCERNS THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING WITH JUST OCCASIONAL
HIGH CLOUDS AND A FEW AFTERNOON CU TO DEAL WITH. SFC WINDS WILL
GENERALLY FAVOR A NORTHWEST DIRECTION...HOWEVER THE WEAK PRESSURE
GRADIENT MAY ALLOW EXTENDED PERIODS OF VARIABLE DIRECTION WITH
SPEEDS AOB 6 KT.

AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDED TAFS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY...
STRONG HIGH PRESSURE WILL PROVIDE SEASONABLY WARM AND DRY CONDITIONS
TO THE DISTRICT DURING THE END OF OF THIS WEEK INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
WITH TEMPERATURES SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL...AFTERNOON HUMIDITY LEVELS
WILL REGULARLY FALL INTO A 15 TO 25 PERCENT RANGE WITH GOOD
OVERNIGHT RECOVERY. WINDS WILL FAVOR A NORTH TO NORTHEAST TRAJECTORY
THROUGH THE PERIOD...WITH SOME OCCASIONAL GUSTINESS OVER RIDGE TOPS
BUT ALL IN ALL VERY TYPICAL SPEEDS. OVERALL...FIRE DANGER WILL BE
LIMITED DURING THIS TIME FRAME.

&&

.PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

AZ...NONE.

CA...NONE.

&&

$$

VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/PHOENIX

DISCUSSION...PERCHA/CB
AVIATION...MO
FIRE WEATHER...MO







000
FXUS65 KFGZ 031101
AFDFGZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ
401 AM MST TUE MAR 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...SCATTERED LIGHT RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE
OVER NORTH CENTRAL ARIZONA THIS MORNING. A SECOND STORM WILL
APPROACH ARIZONA FROM THE NORTH THIS AFTERNOON...BRINGING MORE
RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS TO THE AREA THROUGH EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING.
AFTER A COLD BUT DRIER DAY ON WEDNESDAY...HIGH PRESSURE AND A
WARMING TREND RETURNS FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
THE PACIFIC TROUGH REMAINS POSITIONED TO OUR WEST OFF THE
SOUTHERN CA COAST AND HAS BEEN REINFORCED BY UPSTREAM ENERGY THIS
MORNING. A WEAK DISTURBANCE AHEAD OF THE TROUGH APPEARS TO BE
GENERATING ENOUGH LIFT IN OUR SATURATED ENVIRONMENT TO CONTINUE
SHOWER ACTIVITY ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL ARIZONA WHERE SCATTERED LIGHT
PRECIPITATION HAS FALLEN WITH SOME LIGHT SNOW AROUND THE FLAGSTAFF
AREA. EXPECT THIS ACTIVITY TO CONTINUE THIS MORNING FAVORING
SOUTHERN COCONINO AND YAVAPAI COUNTIES. A SHORTWAVE APPROACHING
FROM UTAH BY THIS AFTERNOON ENHANCES INSTABILITY AND WILL LIKELY
BRING AN INCREASE IN SHOWER COVERAGE AND INTENSITY. SHOWERS
SHOULD CONTINUE THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT AS THE WAVE PUSHES A FAST
MOVING COLD FRONT SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING.

THE BOTTOM LINE IS THAT PRECIPITATION HAS NOT ENDED FOR NORTHERN
ARIZONA AND SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT THE AREA TODAY THROUGH
WEDNESDAY MORNING. PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS WILL GENERALLY BE LIGHT
AND SPOTTY WITH UP TO 1 TO 3 ADDITIONAL INCHES OF SNOWFALL
POSSIBLE IN HIGHER TERRAIN AREAS. SNOW LEVELS WILL GENERALLY HOVER
FROM 4500-5500 FEET...SLIGHTLY HIGHER TOWARDS THE WHITE MOUNTAINS.

COOL TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TODAY AND WEDNESDAY BEFORE WARMING
UP THURSDAY INTO THE WEEKEND. HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS TO THE WEST
COAST THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH NO SIGN OF ADDITIONAL PRECIPITATION
THROUGH AT LEAST MONDAY OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...
FOR THE 12Z PACKAGE...AREAS OF MAINLY MVFR CIGS THIS MORNING...WITH
PATCHY LOWER CIGS AND FOG. EXPECT ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWER
COVERAGE THROUGH 18Z THEN INCREASING COVERAGE AS A WEATHER
DISTURBANCE APPROACHES THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. MVFR AND LCL IFR
CONDITIONS WITH THE STRONGER CELLS. AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED
FOR TAF AMENDMENTS.

&&

.FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC.........MCS
AVIATION.......JJ

FOR NORTHERN ARIZONA WEATHER INFORMATION VISIT
WEATHER.GOV/FLAGSTAFF





000
FXUS65 KFGZ 031101
AFDFGZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ
401 AM MST TUE MAR 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...SCATTERED LIGHT RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE
OVER NORTH CENTRAL ARIZONA THIS MORNING. A SECOND STORM WILL
APPROACH ARIZONA FROM THE NORTH THIS AFTERNOON...BRINGING MORE
RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS TO THE AREA THROUGH EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING.
AFTER A COLD BUT DRIER DAY ON WEDNESDAY...HIGH PRESSURE AND A
WARMING TREND RETURNS FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
THE PACIFIC TROUGH REMAINS POSITIONED TO OUR WEST OFF THE
SOUTHERN CA COAST AND HAS BEEN REINFORCED BY UPSTREAM ENERGY THIS
MORNING. A WEAK DISTURBANCE AHEAD OF THE TROUGH APPEARS TO BE
GENERATING ENOUGH LIFT IN OUR SATURATED ENVIRONMENT TO CONTINUE
SHOWER ACTIVITY ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL ARIZONA WHERE SCATTERED LIGHT
PRECIPITATION HAS FALLEN WITH SOME LIGHT SNOW AROUND THE FLAGSTAFF
AREA. EXPECT THIS ACTIVITY TO CONTINUE THIS MORNING FAVORING
SOUTHERN COCONINO AND YAVAPAI COUNTIES. A SHORTWAVE APPROACHING
FROM UTAH BY THIS AFTERNOON ENHANCES INSTABILITY AND WILL LIKELY
BRING AN INCREASE IN SHOWER COVERAGE AND INTENSITY. SHOWERS
SHOULD CONTINUE THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT AS THE WAVE PUSHES A FAST
MOVING COLD FRONT SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING.

THE BOTTOM LINE IS THAT PRECIPITATION HAS NOT ENDED FOR NORTHERN
ARIZONA AND SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT THE AREA TODAY THROUGH
WEDNESDAY MORNING. PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS WILL GENERALLY BE LIGHT
AND SPOTTY WITH UP TO 1 TO 3 ADDITIONAL INCHES OF SNOWFALL
POSSIBLE IN HIGHER TERRAIN AREAS. SNOW LEVELS WILL GENERALLY HOVER
FROM 4500-5500 FEET...SLIGHTLY HIGHER TOWARDS THE WHITE MOUNTAINS.

COOL TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TODAY AND WEDNESDAY BEFORE WARMING
UP THURSDAY INTO THE WEEKEND. HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS TO THE WEST
COAST THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH NO SIGN OF ADDITIONAL PRECIPITATION
THROUGH AT LEAST MONDAY OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...
FOR THE 12Z PACKAGE...AREAS OF MAINLY MVFR CIGS THIS MORNING...WITH
PATCHY LOWER CIGS AND FOG. EXPECT ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWER
COVERAGE THROUGH 18Z THEN INCREASING COVERAGE AS A WEATHER
DISTURBANCE APPROACHES THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. MVFR AND LCL IFR
CONDITIONS WITH THE STRONGER CELLS. AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED
FOR TAF AMENDMENTS.

&&

.FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC.........MCS
AVIATION.......JJ

FOR NORTHERN ARIZONA WEATHER INFORMATION VISIT
WEATHER.GOV/FLAGSTAFF






000
FXUS65 KFGZ 031101
AFDFGZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ
401 AM MST TUE MAR 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...SCATTERED LIGHT RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE
OVER NORTH CENTRAL ARIZONA THIS MORNING. A SECOND STORM WILL
APPROACH ARIZONA FROM THE NORTH THIS AFTERNOON...BRINGING MORE
RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS TO THE AREA THROUGH EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING.
AFTER A COLD BUT DRIER DAY ON WEDNESDAY...HIGH PRESSURE AND A
WARMING TREND RETURNS FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
THE PACIFIC TROUGH REMAINS POSITIONED TO OUR WEST OFF THE
SOUTHERN CA COAST AND HAS BEEN REINFORCED BY UPSTREAM ENERGY THIS
MORNING. A WEAK DISTURBANCE AHEAD OF THE TROUGH APPEARS TO BE
GENERATING ENOUGH LIFT IN OUR SATURATED ENVIRONMENT TO CONTINUE
SHOWER ACTIVITY ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL ARIZONA WHERE SCATTERED LIGHT
PRECIPITATION HAS FALLEN WITH SOME LIGHT SNOW AROUND THE FLAGSTAFF
AREA. EXPECT THIS ACTIVITY TO CONTINUE THIS MORNING FAVORING
SOUTHERN COCONINO AND YAVAPAI COUNTIES. A SHORTWAVE APPROACHING
FROM UTAH BY THIS AFTERNOON ENHANCES INSTABILITY AND WILL LIKELY
BRING AN INCREASE IN SHOWER COVERAGE AND INTENSITY. SHOWERS
SHOULD CONTINUE THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT AS THE WAVE PUSHES A FAST
MOVING COLD FRONT SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING.

THE BOTTOM LINE IS THAT PRECIPITATION HAS NOT ENDED FOR NORTHERN
ARIZONA AND SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT THE AREA TODAY THROUGH
WEDNESDAY MORNING. PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS WILL GENERALLY BE LIGHT
AND SPOTTY WITH UP TO 1 TO 3 ADDITIONAL INCHES OF SNOWFALL
POSSIBLE IN HIGHER TERRAIN AREAS. SNOW LEVELS WILL GENERALLY HOVER
FROM 4500-5500 FEET...SLIGHTLY HIGHER TOWARDS THE WHITE MOUNTAINS.

COOL TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TODAY AND WEDNESDAY BEFORE WARMING
UP THURSDAY INTO THE WEEKEND. HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS TO THE WEST
COAST THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH NO SIGN OF ADDITIONAL PRECIPITATION
THROUGH AT LEAST MONDAY OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...
FOR THE 12Z PACKAGE...AREAS OF MAINLY MVFR CIGS THIS MORNING...WITH
PATCHY LOWER CIGS AND FOG. EXPECT ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWER
COVERAGE THROUGH 18Z THEN INCREASING COVERAGE AS A WEATHER
DISTURBANCE APPROACHES THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. MVFR AND LCL IFR
CONDITIONS WITH THE STRONGER CELLS. AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED
FOR TAF AMENDMENTS.

&&

.FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC.........MCS
AVIATION.......JJ

FOR NORTHERN ARIZONA WEATHER INFORMATION VISIT
WEATHER.GOV/FLAGSTAFF





000
FXUS65 KFGZ 031101
AFDFGZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ
401 AM MST TUE MAR 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...SCATTERED LIGHT RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE
OVER NORTH CENTRAL ARIZONA THIS MORNING. A SECOND STORM WILL
APPROACH ARIZONA FROM THE NORTH THIS AFTERNOON...BRINGING MORE
RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS TO THE AREA THROUGH EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING.
AFTER A COLD BUT DRIER DAY ON WEDNESDAY...HIGH PRESSURE AND A
WARMING TREND RETURNS FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
THE PACIFIC TROUGH REMAINS POSITIONED TO OUR WEST OFF THE
SOUTHERN CA COAST AND HAS BEEN REINFORCED BY UPSTREAM ENERGY THIS
MORNING. A WEAK DISTURBANCE AHEAD OF THE TROUGH APPEARS TO BE
GENERATING ENOUGH LIFT IN OUR SATURATED ENVIRONMENT TO CONTINUE
SHOWER ACTIVITY ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL ARIZONA WHERE SCATTERED LIGHT
PRECIPITATION HAS FALLEN WITH SOME LIGHT SNOW AROUND THE FLAGSTAFF
AREA. EXPECT THIS ACTIVITY TO CONTINUE THIS MORNING FAVORING
SOUTHERN COCONINO AND YAVAPAI COUNTIES. A SHORTWAVE APPROACHING
FROM UTAH BY THIS AFTERNOON ENHANCES INSTABILITY AND WILL LIKELY
BRING AN INCREASE IN SHOWER COVERAGE AND INTENSITY. SHOWERS
SHOULD CONTINUE THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT AS THE WAVE PUSHES A FAST
MOVING COLD FRONT SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING.

THE BOTTOM LINE IS THAT PRECIPITATION HAS NOT ENDED FOR NORTHERN
ARIZONA AND SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT THE AREA TODAY THROUGH
WEDNESDAY MORNING. PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS WILL GENERALLY BE LIGHT
AND SPOTTY WITH UP TO 1 TO 3 ADDITIONAL INCHES OF SNOWFALL
POSSIBLE IN HIGHER TERRAIN AREAS. SNOW LEVELS WILL GENERALLY HOVER
FROM 4500-5500 FEET...SLIGHTLY HIGHER TOWARDS THE WHITE MOUNTAINS.

COOL TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TODAY AND WEDNESDAY BEFORE WARMING
UP THURSDAY INTO THE WEEKEND. HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS TO THE WEST
COAST THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH NO SIGN OF ADDITIONAL PRECIPITATION
THROUGH AT LEAST MONDAY OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...
FOR THE 12Z PACKAGE...AREAS OF MAINLY MVFR CIGS THIS MORNING...WITH
PATCHY LOWER CIGS AND FOG. EXPECT ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWER
COVERAGE THROUGH 18Z THEN INCREASING COVERAGE AS A WEATHER
DISTURBANCE APPROACHES THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. MVFR AND LCL IFR
CONDITIONS WITH THE STRONGER CELLS. AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED
FOR TAF AMENDMENTS.

&&

.FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC.........MCS
AVIATION.......JJ

FOR NORTHERN ARIZONA WEATHER INFORMATION VISIT
WEATHER.GOV/FLAGSTAFF





000
FXUS65 KFGZ 031101
AFDFGZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ
401 AM MST TUE MAR 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...SCATTERED LIGHT RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE
OVER NORTH CENTRAL ARIZONA THIS MORNING. A SECOND STORM WILL
APPROACH ARIZONA FROM THE NORTH THIS AFTERNOON...BRINGING MORE
RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS TO THE AREA THROUGH EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING.
AFTER A COLD BUT DRIER DAY ON WEDNESDAY...HIGH PRESSURE AND A
WARMING TREND RETURNS FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
THE PACIFIC TROUGH REMAINS POSITIONED TO OUR WEST OFF THE
SOUTHERN CA COAST AND HAS BEEN REINFORCED BY UPSTREAM ENERGY THIS
MORNING. A WEAK DISTURBANCE AHEAD OF THE TROUGH APPEARS TO BE
GENERATING ENOUGH LIFT IN OUR SATURATED ENVIRONMENT TO CONTINUE
SHOWER ACTIVITY ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL ARIZONA WHERE SCATTERED LIGHT
PRECIPITATION HAS FALLEN WITH SOME LIGHT SNOW AROUND THE FLAGSTAFF
AREA. EXPECT THIS ACTIVITY TO CONTINUE THIS MORNING FAVORING
SOUTHERN COCONINO AND YAVAPAI COUNTIES. A SHORTWAVE APPROACHING
FROM UTAH BY THIS AFTERNOON ENHANCES INSTABILITY AND WILL LIKELY
BRING AN INCREASE IN SHOWER COVERAGE AND INTENSITY. SHOWERS
SHOULD CONTINUE THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT AS THE WAVE PUSHES A FAST
MOVING COLD FRONT SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING.

THE BOTTOM LINE IS THAT PRECIPITATION HAS NOT ENDED FOR NORTHERN
ARIZONA AND SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT THE AREA TODAY THROUGH
WEDNESDAY MORNING. PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS WILL GENERALLY BE LIGHT
AND SPOTTY WITH UP TO 1 TO 3 ADDITIONAL INCHES OF SNOWFALL
POSSIBLE IN HIGHER TERRAIN AREAS. SNOW LEVELS WILL GENERALLY HOVER
FROM 4500-5500 FEET...SLIGHTLY HIGHER TOWARDS THE WHITE MOUNTAINS.

COOL TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TODAY AND WEDNESDAY BEFORE WARMING
UP THURSDAY INTO THE WEEKEND. HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS TO THE WEST
COAST THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH NO SIGN OF ADDITIONAL PRECIPITATION
THROUGH AT LEAST MONDAY OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...
FOR THE 12Z PACKAGE...AREAS OF MAINLY MVFR CIGS THIS MORNING...WITH
PATCHY LOWER CIGS AND FOG. EXPECT ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWER
COVERAGE THROUGH 18Z THEN INCREASING COVERAGE AS A WEATHER
DISTURBANCE APPROACHES THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. MVFR AND LCL IFR
CONDITIONS WITH THE STRONGER CELLS. AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED
FOR TAF AMENDMENTS.

&&

.FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC.........MCS
AVIATION.......JJ

FOR NORTHERN ARIZONA WEATHER INFORMATION VISIT
WEATHER.GOV/FLAGSTAFF





000
FXUS65 KFGZ 031101
AFDFGZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ
401 AM MST TUE MAR 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...SCATTERED LIGHT RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE
OVER NORTH CENTRAL ARIZONA THIS MORNING. A SECOND STORM WILL
APPROACH ARIZONA FROM THE NORTH THIS AFTERNOON...BRINGING MORE
RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS TO THE AREA THROUGH EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING.
AFTER A COLD BUT DRIER DAY ON WEDNESDAY...HIGH PRESSURE AND A
WARMING TREND RETURNS FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
THE PACIFIC TROUGH REMAINS POSITIONED TO OUR WEST OFF THE
SOUTHERN CA COAST AND HAS BEEN REINFORCED BY UPSTREAM ENERGY THIS
MORNING. A WEAK DISTURBANCE AHEAD OF THE TROUGH APPEARS TO BE
GENERATING ENOUGH LIFT IN OUR SATURATED ENVIRONMENT TO CONTINUE
SHOWER ACTIVITY ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL ARIZONA WHERE SCATTERED LIGHT
PRECIPITATION HAS FALLEN WITH SOME LIGHT SNOW AROUND THE FLAGSTAFF
AREA. EXPECT THIS ACTIVITY TO CONTINUE THIS MORNING FAVORING
SOUTHERN COCONINO AND YAVAPAI COUNTIES. A SHORTWAVE APPROACHING
FROM UTAH BY THIS AFTERNOON ENHANCES INSTABILITY AND WILL LIKELY
BRING AN INCREASE IN SHOWER COVERAGE AND INTENSITY. SHOWERS
SHOULD CONTINUE THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT AS THE WAVE PUSHES A FAST
MOVING COLD FRONT SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING.

THE BOTTOM LINE IS THAT PRECIPITATION HAS NOT ENDED FOR NORTHERN
ARIZONA AND SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT THE AREA TODAY THROUGH
WEDNESDAY MORNING. PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS WILL GENERALLY BE LIGHT
AND SPOTTY WITH UP TO 1 TO 3 ADDITIONAL INCHES OF SNOWFALL
POSSIBLE IN HIGHER TERRAIN AREAS. SNOW LEVELS WILL GENERALLY HOVER
FROM 4500-5500 FEET...SLIGHTLY HIGHER TOWARDS THE WHITE MOUNTAINS.

COOL TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TODAY AND WEDNESDAY BEFORE WARMING
UP THURSDAY INTO THE WEEKEND. HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS TO THE WEST
COAST THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH NO SIGN OF ADDITIONAL PRECIPITATION
THROUGH AT LEAST MONDAY OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...
FOR THE 12Z PACKAGE...AREAS OF MAINLY MVFR CIGS THIS MORNING...WITH
PATCHY LOWER CIGS AND FOG. EXPECT ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWER
COVERAGE THROUGH 18Z THEN INCREASING COVERAGE AS A WEATHER
DISTURBANCE APPROACHES THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. MVFR AND LCL IFR
CONDITIONS WITH THE STRONGER CELLS. AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED
FOR TAF AMENDMENTS.

&&

.FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC.........MCS
AVIATION.......JJ

FOR NORTHERN ARIZONA WEATHER INFORMATION VISIT
WEATHER.GOV/FLAGSTAFF





000
FXUS65 KTWC 031016
AFDTWC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ
316 AM MST TUE MAR 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...A FEW SHOWERS POSSIBLE WITH SOME ADDITIONAL SNOW IN THE
MOUNTAINS EARLY THIS MORNING...OTHERWISE PARTIAL CLEARING BEHIND A
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM EXITING THE STATE. A FOLLOW UP SYSTEM WILL MOVE
ALONG OR JUST SOUTH OF THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER TONIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY AND BRING ANOTHER CHANCE OF VALLEY RAIN AND MOUNTAIN
SNOW...MAINLY NEAR THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER. DRY CONDITIONS AREAWIDE
AND WARMER TEMPERATURES STARTING THURSDAY INTO THE WEEKEND.

&&

.DISCUSSION...WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES THAT THE SYSTEM THAT
BROUGHT VALLEY RAIN AND MOUNTAIN SNOW TO THE REGION YESTERDAY HAS
LIFTED NORTHEAST INTO THE CENTRAL ROCKIES. MEANWHILE...A SECONDARY
SYSTEM IS CURRENTLY JUST OFFSHORE OF THE SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA AND
NORTHERN BAJA COASTS. IR SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THE BULK OF THE
CLOUDINESS CURRENTLY EXTENDS FROM NORTHERN MEXICO THROUGH EXTREME
EASTERN ARIZONA AS WELL AS EAST AND NORTHEAST ACROSS MUCH OF NEW
MEXICO AND COLORADO. PARTIAL CLEARING HAS OCCURRED TO THE WEST OF
TUCSON...BUT ANOTHER NARROW SWATH OF CLOUDINESS EXTENDS NORTH TO
SOUTH ACROSS EXTREME SOUTHWEST ARIZONA AND THIS BAND OF CLOUDS IS
PROGRESSING EASTWARD.

MODELS INDICATE THAT THE AFOREMENTIONED UPPER LOW OFF THE WEST COAST
WILL SWING THROUGH NORTHERN MEXICO THROUGH LATE WEDNESDAY OR EARLY
THURSDAY. AS A RESULT...ASSOCIATED MOISTURE WILL SPREAD ACROSS PARTS
OF ARIZONA...ESPECIALLY ALONG THE BORDER WITH MEXICO FROM AROUND
NOGALES TO DOUGLAS. THAT SAID...ANTICIPATED QPF VALUES ONLY EXPECTED
TO RANGE FROM AROUND 0.10-0.20 INCHES IN THAT AREA. HOWEVER...WITH
SNOW LEVELS EXPECTED TO REMAIN FAIRLY LOW AS THE SYSTEM MOVES ACROSS
THE REGION...MOUNTAIN TOPS ACROSS SANTA CRUZ AND SOUTHERN COCHISE
COUNTY WILL LIKELY PICK UP BETWEEN 1 AND 3 INCHES OF SNOW BETWEEN
LATE TONIGHT AND DURING THE DAY ON WEDNESDAY ABOVE 6500 FEET AS THIS
SYSTEM SWINGS THROUGH THE REGION. ONCE THIS SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH THE
REGION...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN BEHIND IT FOR A RETURN TO DRY
WEATHER AND A WARMING TREND.

FOR TUCSON...HIGH TEMPERATURES GENERALLY 8 TO 10 DEGS BELOW NORMAL
TODAY AND WEDNESDAY...AND 4 TO 6 DEGS BELOW NORMAL FOR THURSDAY.
HIGHS 2 TO 4 DEGS ABOVE NORMAL FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. FOR SUNDAY
AND MONDAY HIGHS 7 TO 9 DEGS ABOVE NORMAL. LOW TEMPS NEAR NORMAL
WEDNESDAY MORNING...3 TO 5 DEGS BELOW NORMAL FOR THURSDAY AND NEAR
NORMAL AGAIN FOR FRIDAY MORNING. THEREAFTER...LOWS AROUND 3 TO 5
DEGS ABOVE NORMAL EACH MORNING...BUT THE WARMEST MORNINGS EXPECTED
FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...VALID THRU 04/12Z.
A STORM SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO EXIT THE REGION TO THE NORTHEAST
THROUGH EARLY THIS MORNING. EXPECT SCT-BKN CLOUDS 2-5K FT AGL WITH
MULTIPLE LAYERS ABV AND IFR/MVFR CONDS OVER MTNS AND NEAR SHOWERS.
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE FROM WEST TO
EAST AND GRADUALLY WEAKEN ACROSS EASTERN AREAS DURING THE EARLY
MORNING HOURS. LIGHT AND VARIABLE SFC WINDS EARLY TODAY THEN
BECOMING SW AT 10-20 KNOTS WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 25 TO 30 KNOTS. SKY
CONDITIONS WILL GRADUALLY IMPROVE THIS MORNING FROM WEST TO
EAST...BUT WILL INCREASE AGAIN LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY
WITH THE APPROACH OF THE UPPER LOW. AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED
FOR TAF AMENDMENTS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...ANOTHER WEATHER SYSTEM WILL IMPACT THE AREA LATE
TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY FOR ANOTHER CHANCE OF SHOWERS ESPECIALLY NEAR
THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER. DRY AND WARMER THURSDAY ONWARD.

&&

.TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...YOUTUBE...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/TUCSON

MOLLERE






000
FXUS65 KTWC 031016
AFDTWC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ
316 AM MST TUE MAR 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...A FEW SHOWERS POSSIBLE WITH SOME ADDITIONAL SNOW IN THE
MOUNTAINS EARLY THIS MORNING...OTHERWISE PARTIAL CLEARING BEHIND A
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM EXITING THE STATE. A FOLLOW UP SYSTEM WILL MOVE
ALONG OR JUST SOUTH OF THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER TONIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY AND BRING ANOTHER CHANCE OF VALLEY RAIN AND MOUNTAIN
SNOW...MAINLY NEAR THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER. DRY CONDITIONS AREAWIDE
AND WARMER TEMPERATURES STARTING THURSDAY INTO THE WEEKEND.

&&

.DISCUSSION...WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES THAT THE SYSTEM THAT
BROUGHT VALLEY RAIN AND MOUNTAIN SNOW TO THE REGION YESTERDAY HAS
LIFTED NORTHEAST INTO THE CENTRAL ROCKIES. MEANWHILE...A SECONDARY
SYSTEM IS CURRENTLY JUST OFFSHORE OF THE SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA AND
NORTHERN BAJA COASTS. IR SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THE BULK OF THE
CLOUDINESS CURRENTLY EXTENDS FROM NORTHERN MEXICO THROUGH EXTREME
EASTERN ARIZONA AS WELL AS EAST AND NORTHEAST ACROSS MUCH OF NEW
MEXICO AND COLORADO. PARTIAL CLEARING HAS OCCURRED TO THE WEST OF
TUCSON...BUT ANOTHER NARROW SWATH OF CLOUDINESS EXTENDS NORTH TO
SOUTH ACROSS EXTREME SOUTHWEST ARIZONA AND THIS BAND OF CLOUDS IS
PROGRESSING EASTWARD.

MODELS INDICATE THAT THE AFOREMENTIONED UPPER LOW OFF THE WEST COAST
WILL SWING THROUGH NORTHERN MEXICO THROUGH LATE WEDNESDAY OR EARLY
THURSDAY. AS A RESULT...ASSOCIATED MOISTURE WILL SPREAD ACROSS PARTS
OF ARIZONA...ESPECIALLY ALONG THE BORDER WITH MEXICO FROM AROUND
NOGALES TO DOUGLAS. THAT SAID...ANTICIPATED QPF VALUES ONLY EXPECTED
TO RANGE FROM AROUND 0.10-0.20 INCHES IN THAT AREA. HOWEVER...WITH
SNOW LEVELS EXPECTED TO REMAIN FAIRLY LOW AS THE SYSTEM MOVES ACROSS
THE REGION...MOUNTAIN TOPS ACROSS SANTA CRUZ AND SOUTHERN COCHISE
COUNTY WILL LIKELY PICK UP BETWEEN 1 AND 3 INCHES OF SNOW BETWEEN
LATE TONIGHT AND DURING THE DAY ON WEDNESDAY ABOVE 6500 FEET AS THIS
SYSTEM SWINGS THROUGH THE REGION. ONCE THIS SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH THE
REGION...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN BEHIND IT FOR A RETURN TO DRY
WEATHER AND A WARMING TREND.

FOR TUCSON...HIGH TEMPERATURES GENERALLY 8 TO 10 DEGS BELOW NORMAL
TODAY AND WEDNESDAY...AND 4 TO 6 DEGS BELOW NORMAL FOR THURSDAY.
HIGHS 2 TO 4 DEGS ABOVE NORMAL FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. FOR SUNDAY
AND MONDAY HIGHS 7 TO 9 DEGS ABOVE NORMAL. LOW TEMPS NEAR NORMAL
WEDNESDAY MORNING...3 TO 5 DEGS BELOW NORMAL FOR THURSDAY AND NEAR
NORMAL AGAIN FOR FRIDAY MORNING. THEREAFTER...LOWS AROUND 3 TO 5
DEGS ABOVE NORMAL EACH MORNING...BUT THE WARMEST MORNINGS EXPECTED
FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...VALID THRU 04/12Z.
A STORM SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO EXIT THE REGION TO THE NORTHEAST
THROUGH EARLY THIS MORNING. EXPECT SCT-BKN CLOUDS 2-5K FT AGL WITH
MULTIPLE LAYERS ABV AND IFR/MVFR CONDS OVER MTNS AND NEAR SHOWERS.
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE FROM WEST TO
EAST AND GRADUALLY WEAKEN ACROSS EASTERN AREAS DURING THE EARLY
MORNING HOURS. LIGHT AND VARIABLE SFC WINDS EARLY TODAY THEN
BECOMING SW AT 10-20 KNOTS WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 25 TO 30 KNOTS. SKY
CONDITIONS WILL GRADUALLY IMPROVE THIS MORNING FROM WEST TO
EAST...BUT WILL INCREASE AGAIN LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY
WITH THE APPROACH OF THE UPPER LOW. AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED
FOR TAF AMENDMENTS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...ANOTHER WEATHER SYSTEM WILL IMPACT THE AREA LATE
TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY FOR ANOTHER CHANCE OF SHOWERS ESPECIALLY NEAR
THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER. DRY AND WARMER THURSDAY ONWARD.

&&

.TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...YOUTUBE...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/TUCSON

MOLLERE







000
FXUS65 KTWC 031016
AFDTWC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ
316 AM MST TUE MAR 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...A FEW SHOWERS POSSIBLE WITH SOME ADDITIONAL SNOW IN THE
MOUNTAINS EARLY THIS MORNING...OTHERWISE PARTIAL CLEARING BEHIND A
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM EXITING THE STATE. A FOLLOW UP SYSTEM WILL MOVE
ALONG OR JUST SOUTH OF THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER TONIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY AND BRING ANOTHER CHANCE OF VALLEY RAIN AND MOUNTAIN
SNOW...MAINLY NEAR THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER. DRY CONDITIONS AREAWIDE
AND WARMER TEMPERATURES STARTING THURSDAY INTO THE WEEKEND.

&&

.DISCUSSION...WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES THAT THE SYSTEM THAT
BROUGHT VALLEY RAIN AND MOUNTAIN SNOW TO THE REGION YESTERDAY HAS
LIFTED NORTHEAST INTO THE CENTRAL ROCKIES. MEANWHILE...A SECONDARY
SYSTEM IS CURRENTLY JUST OFFSHORE OF THE SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA AND
NORTHERN BAJA COASTS. IR SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THE BULK OF THE
CLOUDINESS CURRENTLY EXTENDS FROM NORTHERN MEXICO THROUGH EXTREME
EASTERN ARIZONA AS WELL AS EAST AND NORTHEAST ACROSS MUCH OF NEW
MEXICO AND COLORADO. PARTIAL CLEARING HAS OCCURRED TO THE WEST OF
TUCSON...BUT ANOTHER NARROW SWATH OF CLOUDINESS EXTENDS NORTH TO
SOUTH ACROSS EXTREME SOUTHWEST ARIZONA AND THIS BAND OF CLOUDS IS
PROGRESSING EASTWARD.

MODELS INDICATE THAT THE AFOREMENTIONED UPPER LOW OFF THE WEST COAST
WILL SWING THROUGH NORTHERN MEXICO THROUGH LATE WEDNESDAY OR EARLY
THURSDAY. AS A RESULT...ASSOCIATED MOISTURE WILL SPREAD ACROSS PARTS
OF ARIZONA...ESPECIALLY ALONG THE BORDER WITH MEXICO FROM AROUND
NOGALES TO DOUGLAS. THAT SAID...ANTICIPATED QPF VALUES ONLY EXPECTED
TO RANGE FROM AROUND 0.10-0.20 INCHES IN THAT AREA. HOWEVER...WITH
SNOW LEVELS EXPECTED TO REMAIN FAIRLY LOW AS THE SYSTEM MOVES ACROSS
THE REGION...MOUNTAIN TOPS ACROSS SANTA CRUZ AND SOUTHERN COCHISE
COUNTY WILL LIKELY PICK UP BETWEEN 1 AND 3 INCHES OF SNOW BETWEEN
LATE TONIGHT AND DURING THE DAY ON WEDNESDAY ABOVE 6500 FEET AS THIS
SYSTEM SWINGS THROUGH THE REGION. ONCE THIS SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH THE
REGION...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN BEHIND IT FOR A RETURN TO DRY
WEATHER AND A WARMING TREND.

FOR TUCSON...HIGH TEMPERATURES GENERALLY 8 TO 10 DEGS BELOW NORMAL
TODAY AND WEDNESDAY...AND 4 TO 6 DEGS BELOW NORMAL FOR THURSDAY.
HIGHS 2 TO 4 DEGS ABOVE NORMAL FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. FOR SUNDAY
AND MONDAY HIGHS 7 TO 9 DEGS ABOVE NORMAL. LOW TEMPS NEAR NORMAL
WEDNESDAY MORNING...3 TO 5 DEGS BELOW NORMAL FOR THURSDAY AND NEAR
NORMAL AGAIN FOR FRIDAY MORNING. THEREAFTER...LOWS AROUND 3 TO 5
DEGS ABOVE NORMAL EACH MORNING...BUT THE WARMEST MORNINGS EXPECTED
FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...VALID THRU 04/12Z.
A STORM SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO EXIT THE REGION TO THE NORTHEAST
THROUGH EARLY THIS MORNING. EXPECT SCT-BKN CLOUDS 2-5K FT AGL WITH
MULTIPLE LAYERS ABV AND IFR/MVFR CONDS OVER MTNS AND NEAR SHOWERS.
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE FROM WEST TO
EAST AND GRADUALLY WEAKEN ACROSS EASTERN AREAS DURING THE EARLY
MORNING HOURS. LIGHT AND VARIABLE SFC WINDS EARLY TODAY THEN
BECOMING SW AT 10-20 KNOTS WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 25 TO 30 KNOTS. SKY
CONDITIONS WILL GRADUALLY IMPROVE THIS MORNING FROM WEST TO
EAST...BUT WILL INCREASE AGAIN LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY
WITH THE APPROACH OF THE UPPER LOW. AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED
FOR TAF AMENDMENTS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...ANOTHER WEATHER SYSTEM WILL IMPACT THE AREA LATE
TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY FOR ANOTHER CHANCE OF SHOWERS ESPECIALLY NEAR
THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER. DRY AND WARMER THURSDAY ONWARD.

&&

.TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...YOUTUBE...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/TUCSON

MOLLERE






000
FXUS65 KTWC 031016
AFDTWC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ
316 AM MST TUE MAR 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...A FEW SHOWERS POSSIBLE WITH SOME ADDITIONAL SNOW IN THE
MOUNTAINS EARLY THIS MORNING...OTHERWISE PARTIAL CLEARING BEHIND A
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM EXITING THE STATE. A FOLLOW UP SYSTEM WILL MOVE
ALONG OR JUST SOUTH OF THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER TONIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY AND BRING ANOTHER CHANCE OF VALLEY RAIN AND MOUNTAIN
SNOW...MAINLY NEAR THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER. DRY CONDITIONS AREAWIDE
AND WARMER TEMPERATURES STARTING THURSDAY INTO THE WEEKEND.

&&

.DISCUSSION...WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES THAT THE SYSTEM THAT
BROUGHT VALLEY RAIN AND MOUNTAIN SNOW TO THE REGION YESTERDAY HAS
LIFTED NORTHEAST INTO THE CENTRAL ROCKIES. MEANWHILE...A SECONDARY
SYSTEM IS CURRENTLY JUST OFFSHORE OF THE SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA AND
NORTHERN BAJA COASTS. IR SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THE BULK OF THE
CLOUDINESS CURRENTLY EXTENDS FROM NORTHERN MEXICO THROUGH EXTREME
EASTERN ARIZONA AS WELL AS EAST AND NORTHEAST ACROSS MUCH OF NEW
MEXICO AND COLORADO. PARTIAL CLEARING HAS OCCURRED TO THE WEST OF
TUCSON...BUT ANOTHER NARROW SWATH OF CLOUDINESS EXTENDS NORTH TO
SOUTH ACROSS EXTREME SOUTHWEST ARIZONA AND THIS BAND OF CLOUDS IS
PROGRESSING EASTWARD.

MODELS INDICATE THAT THE AFOREMENTIONED UPPER LOW OFF THE WEST COAST
WILL SWING THROUGH NORTHERN MEXICO THROUGH LATE WEDNESDAY OR EARLY
THURSDAY. AS A RESULT...ASSOCIATED MOISTURE WILL SPREAD ACROSS PARTS
OF ARIZONA...ESPECIALLY ALONG THE BORDER WITH MEXICO FROM AROUND
NOGALES TO DOUGLAS. THAT SAID...ANTICIPATED QPF VALUES ONLY EXPECTED
TO RANGE FROM AROUND 0.10-0.20 INCHES IN THAT AREA. HOWEVER...WITH
SNOW LEVELS EXPECTED TO REMAIN FAIRLY LOW AS THE SYSTEM MOVES ACROSS
THE REGION...MOUNTAIN TOPS ACROSS SANTA CRUZ AND SOUTHERN COCHISE
COUNTY WILL LIKELY PICK UP BETWEEN 1 AND 3 INCHES OF SNOW BETWEEN
LATE TONIGHT AND DURING THE DAY ON WEDNESDAY ABOVE 6500 FEET AS THIS
SYSTEM SWINGS THROUGH THE REGION. ONCE THIS SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH THE
REGION...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN BEHIND IT FOR A RETURN TO DRY
WEATHER AND A WARMING TREND.

FOR TUCSON...HIGH TEMPERATURES GENERALLY 8 TO 10 DEGS BELOW NORMAL
TODAY AND WEDNESDAY...AND 4 TO 6 DEGS BELOW NORMAL FOR THURSDAY.
HIGHS 2 TO 4 DEGS ABOVE NORMAL FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. FOR SUNDAY
AND MONDAY HIGHS 7 TO 9 DEGS ABOVE NORMAL. LOW TEMPS NEAR NORMAL
WEDNESDAY MORNING...3 TO 5 DEGS BELOW NORMAL FOR THURSDAY AND NEAR
NORMAL AGAIN FOR FRIDAY MORNING. THEREAFTER...LOWS AROUND 3 TO 5
DEGS ABOVE NORMAL EACH MORNING...BUT THE WARMEST MORNINGS EXPECTED
FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...VALID THRU 04/12Z.
A STORM SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO EXIT THE REGION TO THE NORTHEAST
THROUGH EARLY THIS MORNING. EXPECT SCT-BKN CLOUDS 2-5K FT AGL WITH
MULTIPLE LAYERS ABV AND IFR/MVFR CONDS OVER MTNS AND NEAR SHOWERS.
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE FROM WEST TO
EAST AND GRADUALLY WEAKEN ACROSS EASTERN AREAS DURING THE EARLY
MORNING HOURS. LIGHT AND VARIABLE SFC WINDS EARLY TODAY THEN
BECOMING SW AT 10-20 KNOTS WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 25 TO 30 KNOTS. SKY
CONDITIONS WILL GRADUALLY IMPROVE THIS MORNING FROM WEST TO
EAST...BUT WILL INCREASE AGAIN LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY
WITH THE APPROACH OF THE UPPER LOW. AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED
FOR TAF AMENDMENTS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...ANOTHER WEATHER SYSTEM WILL IMPACT THE AREA LATE
TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY FOR ANOTHER CHANCE OF SHOWERS ESPECIALLY NEAR
THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER. DRY AND WARMER THURSDAY ONWARD.

&&

.TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...YOUTUBE...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/TUCSON

MOLLERE







000
FXUS65 KPSR 030917
AFDPSR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PHOENIX AZ
220 AM MST TUE MAR 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE...THAT WILL BE MOVING SLOWLY SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE
REGION...WILL KEEP THE WEATHER RATHER UNSETTLED AND COOL THROUGH
WEDNESDAY. A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS...AND EVEN A FEW THUNDERSTORMS
CAN BE EXPECTED OVER SOUTH CENTRAL ARIZONA THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING.
A RETURN TO ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES IS LIKELY BY THURSDAY...INTO
THE WEEKEND AS HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM BUILDS OVER THE DESERT
SOUTHWEST.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

AFTER A RATHER WET AND COOL MONDAY...WITH SOME OF THE MOST FAVORED
AREAS ACROSS NORTHERN MARICOPA COUNTY SEEING UP TO AN INCH OF
RAIN...TODAY LOOKS LIKE IT WILL BE A QUIETER ONE...AS THE UPPER TROF
THAT BROUGHT US ALL THE RAIN AND CLOUDS HAS NOW MOVED OFF WELL TO
OUR EAST...INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS.

HOWEVER...THE WEATHER TODAY AND TONIGHT STILL LOOKS LIKE IT WILL BE
RATHER UNSETTLED...WITH ISOLATED-TO-SCATTERED SHOWERS TO CONTINUE
OVER SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA...ESPECIALLY OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN
NORTH AND EAST OF PHOENIX. THIS CONTINUATION OF SHOWER CHANCES IS
DUE TO A COMBINATION OF MOIST SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT THAT IS BEING
GENERATED BY ANOTHER UPPER LOW CENTER THAT IS NOW POSITIONED OFF THE
SOUTHERN CA COAST THIS MORNING...AND A COUPLE OF WEAK SHORTWAVES
THAT WILL BE DROPPING SOUTHWARD ACROSS AZ AS THE STRONG LONG-WAVE
UPPER TROF THEY ARE EMBEDDED IN MOVES SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE
CENTRAL ROCKIES INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS. ALTHOUGH MOISTURE LEVELS
THROUGH THE COLUMN LOOK TO BE RATHER LIMITED...WITH PWATS IN THE
0.50-0.60 INCH RANGE...THERE APPEARS THAT THERE WILL BE ENOUGH
DYNAMICS/INSTABILITY TO TRIGGER LIGHT SHOWERS...AND EVEN ONE OR TWO
THUNDERSTORMS TODAY AND TONIGHT AS THE SHORTWAVES PASS ACROSS THE
REGION...WITH PERHAPS A TENTH OF AN INCH OR SO OF RAIN FALLING FROM
THE HEAVIER SHOWERS...AND EVEN A DUSTING OF SNOW OVER OUR HIGHEST
PEAKS. TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW NORMAL TODAY...WITH
850MB TEMPERATURES AROUND 5C KEEPING LOWER DESERT HIGHS DOWN IN THE
60S AND LOW 70S...IN SPITE OF CONSIDERABLE SUNSHINE. THE CHANCES FOR
PRECIP WILL PRETTY MUCH END BY MIDDAY ON WEDNESDAY AS THE UPPER LOW
THAT IS NOW OFF THE SOUTHERN CA COAST MOVES OFF WELL TO OUR SOUTH
AND EAST...CUTTING OFF THE MOISTURE FEED FROM THE PACIFIC...AND
RIDGING BEGINS TO BUILD IN FROM THE WEST BEHIND THE MAIN LONG-WAVE
TROF.

THURSDAY...

A DRYING AND SUBSIDENT NORTHERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL SET
UP ACROSS THE AREA AS HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT STARTS TO BUILD ALONG THE
CA COAST. THIS WILL LEAD TO SUNNY SKIES...AND CONTINUED WARMING
WITH HIGH TEMPS REACHING INTO THE LOW TO MID 70S...AND TOWARDS
SEASONAL NORMALS.

FRIDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...
A WARMING TREND IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THIS PERIOD UNDER
MAINLY CLEAR SKIES AS HIGH PRESSURE STRENGTHENS OVER THE
REGION...WITH A GOOD CHANCE FOR HIGHS NEAR 80 ACROSS THE LOWER
DESERTS BY THE WEEKEND...AND EVEN INTO THE MID 80S BY NEXT TUESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...
SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA INCLUDING KPHX...KIWA AND KSDL...
A BROAD COOL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL REMAIN OVER THE AREA THROUGH
TUESDAY. VARIABLE AMOUNTS OF MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE A SLIGHT THREAT
OF SHOWERS THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING...ALONG WITH SCT-BKN CLOUDS BASED
BETWEEN 6-8 THSD AGL THROUGH 20Z TUE. LIGHT WIND.

SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA AND SOUTHWEST ARIZONA INCLUDING KIPL AND KBLH...
A BROAD COOL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL REMAIN OVER THE AREA THROUGH
TUESDAY. VARIABLE AMOUNTS OF MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE SCT-BKN CLOUDS
BASED 8-12 THSD AGL THROUGH 20Z TUE. LIGHT WIND.

AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDED TAFS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...
STRONG HIGH PRESSURE AND MUCH DRIER CONDITIONS WILL MOVE BACK INTO
THE DISTRICT DURING THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK. TEMPERATURES WILL
REBOUND BACK INTO A NORMAL TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL RANGE...WHILE
AFTERNOON HUMIDITY LEVELS RETURN INTO A 15 TO 25 PERCENT RANGE.
OVERNIGHT RECOVERY WILL BE GOOD. PERIODS OF GUSTY NORTH WINDS DOWN
THE COLORADO RIVER VALLEY WILL BE LIKELY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...WHILE
OCCASIONAL PERIODS OF STRONGER EASTERLY WINDS OVER RIDGE TOPS OF
CENTRAL ARIZONA MAY BE COMMON LATE IN THE WEEK.

&&

.PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

AZ...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH 8 PM TODAY AZZ022>024.

CA...NONE.

&&

$$

VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/PHOENIX

DISCUSSION...PERCHA/CB
AVIATION...VASQUEZ
FIRE WEATHER...MO





000
FXUS65 KPSR 030917
AFDPSR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PHOENIX AZ
220 AM MST TUE MAR 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE...THAT WILL BE MOVING SLOWLY SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE
REGION...WILL KEEP THE WEATHER RATHER UNSETTLED AND COOL THROUGH
WEDNESDAY. A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS...AND EVEN A FEW THUNDERSTORMS
CAN BE EXPECTED OVER SOUTH CENTRAL ARIZONA THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING.
A RETURN TO ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES IS LIKELY BY THURSDAY...INTO
THE WEEKEND AS HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM BUILDS OVER THE DESERT
SOUTHWEST.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

AFTER A RATHER WET AND COOL MONDAY...WITH SOME OF THE MOST FAVORED
AREAS ACROSS NORTHERN MARICOPA COUNTY SEEING UP TO AN INCH OF
RAIN...TODAY LOOKS LIKE IT WILL BE A QUIETER ONE...AS THE UPPER TROF
THAT BROUGHT US ALL THE RAIN AND CLOUDS HAS NOW MOVED OFF WELL TO
OUR EAST...INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS.

HOWEVER...THE WEATHER TODAY AND TONIGHT STILL LOOKS LIKE IT WILL BE
RATHER UNSETTLED...WITH ISOLATED-TO-SCATTERED SHOWERS TO CONTINUE
OVER SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA...ESPECIALLY OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN
NORTH AND EAST OF PHOENIX. THIS CONTINUATION OF SHOWER CHANCES IS
DUE TO A COMBINATION OF MOIST SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT THAT IS BEING
GENERATED BY ANOTHER UPPER LOW CENTER THAT IS NOW POSITIONED OFF THE
SOUTHERN CA COAST THIS MORNING...AND A COUPLE OF WEAK SHORTWAVES
THAT WILL BE DROPPING SOUTHWARD ACROSS AZ AS THE STRONG LONG-WAVE
UPPER TROF THEY ARE EMBEDDED IN MOVES SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE
CENTRAL ROCKIES INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS. ALTHOUGH MOISTURE LEVELS
THROUGH THE COLUMN LOOK TO BE RATHER LIMITED...WITH PWATS IN THE
0.50-0.60 INCH RANGE...THERE APPEARS THAT THERE WILL BE ENOUGH
DYNAMICS/INSTABILITY TO TRIGGER LIGHT SHOWERS...AND EVEN ONE OR TWO
THUNDERSTORMS TODAY AND TONIGHT AS THE SHORTWAVES PASS ACROSS THE
REGION...WITH PERHAPS A TENTH OF AN INCH OR SO OF RAIN FALLING FROM
THE HEAVIER SHOWERS...AND EVEN A DUSTING OF SNOW OVER OUR HIGHEST
PEAKS. TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW NORMAL TODAY...WITH
850MB TEMPERATURES AROUND 5C KEEPING LOWER DESERT HIGHS DOWN IN THE
60S AND LOW 70S...IN SPITE OF CONSIDERABLE SUNSHINE. THE CHANCES FOR
PRECIP WILL PRETTY MUCH END BY MIDDAY ON WEDNESDAY AS THE UPPER LOW
THAT IS NOW OFF THE SOUTHERN CA COAST MOVES OFF WELL TO OUR SOUTH
AND EAST...CUTTING OFF THE MOISTURE FEED FROM THE PACIFIC...AND
RIDGING BEGINS TO BUILD IN FROM THE WEST BEHIND THE MAIN LONG-WAVE
TROF.

THURSDAY...

A DRYING AND SUBSIDENT NORTHERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL SET
UP ACROSS THE AREA AS HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT STARTS TO BUILD ALONG THE
CA COAST. THIS WILL LEAD TO SUNNY SKIES...AND CONTINUED WARMING
WITH HIGH TEMPS REACHING INTO THE LOW TO MID 70S...AND TOWARDS
SEASONAL NORMALS.

FRIDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...
A WARMING TREND IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THIS PERIOD UNDER
MAINLY CLEAR SKIES AS HIGH PRESSURE STRENGTHENS OVER THE
REGION...WITH A GOOD CHANCE FOR HIGHS NEAR 80 ACROSS THE LOWER
DESERTS BY THE WEEKEND...AND EVEN INTO THE MID 80S BY NEXT TUESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...
SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA INCLUDING KPHX...KIWA AND KSDL...
A BROAD COOL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL REMAIN OVER THE AREA THROUGH
TUESDAY. VARIABLE AMOUNTS OF MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE A SLIGHT THREAT
OF SHOWERS THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING...ALONG WITH SCT-BKN CLOUDS BASED
BETWEEN 6-8 THSD AGL THROUGH 20Z TUE. LIGHT WIND.

SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA AND SOUTHWEST ARIZONA INCLUDING KIPL AND KBLH...
A BROAD COOL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL REMAIN OVER THE AREA THROUGH
TUESDAY. VARIABLE AMOUNTS OF MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE SCT-BKN CLOUDS
BASED 8-12 THSD AGL THROUGH 20Z TUE. LIGHT WIND.

AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDED TAFS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...
STRONG HIGH PRESSURE AND MUCH DRIER CONDITIONS WILL MOVE BACK INTO
THE DISTRICT DURING THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK. TEMPERATURES WILL
REBOUND BACK INTO A NORMAL TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL RANGE...WHILE
AFTERNOON HUMIDITY LEVELS RETURN INTO A 15 TO 25 PERCENT RANGE.
OVERNIGHT RECOVERY WILL BE GOOD. PERIODS OF GUSTY NORTH WINDS DOWN
THE COLORADO RIVER VALLEY WILL BE LIKELY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...WHILE
OCCASIONAL PERIODS OF STRONGER EASTERLY WINDS OVER RIDGE TOPS OF
CENTRAL ARIZONA MAY BE COMMON LATE IN THE WEEK.

&&

.PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

AZ...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH 8 PM TODAY AZZ022>024.

CA...NONE.

&&

$$

VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/PHOENIX

DISCUSSION...PERCHA/CB
AVIATION...VASQUEZ
FIRE WEATHER...MO






000
FXUS65 KTWC 030431
AFDTWC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ
930 PM MST MON MAR 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...A FEW SHOWERS POSSIBLE WITH SOME ADDITIONAL SNOW IN THE
MOUNTAINS...OTHERWISE PARTIAL CLEARING AND COOLER TONIGHT BEHIND A
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM EXITING THE STATE. A FOLLOW UP SYSTEM WILL MOVE
ALONG OR JUST SOUTH OF THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER TUESDAY NIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY AND BRING ANOTHER CHANCE OF VALLEY RAIN AND MOUNTAIN SNOW.
DRY CONDITIONS AREAWIDE AND WARMER TEMPERATURES STARTING THURSDAY
INTO THE WEEKEND.

&&

.DISCUSSION...SOLID SHOT OF PRECIP FOR MOST OF THE AREA OVER THE
PAST 6 HOURS. FRAGMENTED FRONTAL BOUNDARY STALLING OUT IN COCHISE
COUNTY WITH DECENT SHOWERS CONTINUING ALONG AND JUST BEHIND ITS
REMAINS. THIS COULD END UP BEING A PROBLEM FOR SOME AREAS OF THE
COUNTY THAT HAVE ALREADY SEEN BETWEEN .75 AND 1 INCH OF RAINFALL
(SUCH AS JUST SOUTH OF THE SIERRA VISTA AREA). SOMETHING WE WILL
HAVE TO KEEP AN EYE ON.

SPOTTIER SHOWER ACTIVITY FOR MOST OF THE REST OF THE AREA AS THE
INITIAL SYSTEM LIFTS QUICKLY INTO COLORADO TONIGHT. SNOW LEVELS
RANGE FROM ABOUT 8500 FEET IN SOUTHERN COCHISE COUNTY TO 6500-7000
FEET FROM TUCSON NORTHWARD. BEST GUESS IS THE CATALINAS GOT
SOMEWHERE FROM 3 TO 6 INCHES BUT WE WON`T HAVE ANY REPORTS UNTIL
TUESDAY MORNING. THE WINTER STORM WARNING FOR THE MOUNTAINS OF
GRAHAM AND GREENLEE COUNTIES REMAINS IN EFFECT. AS OF 9 PM HANNAGAN
MEADOW WAS UP TO ABOUT 6 INCHES. CAMERAS ON MT GRAHAM AND RAINFALL
GAGES AT THE BASE OF THE MOUNTAIN SUGGEST 4 TO 6 INCHES SO FAR WITH
ANOTHER BATCH MOVING UP FROM THE SOUTH.

&&

.AVIATION...VALID THRU 04/06Z.
A STORM SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO IMPACT THE AREA THRU THIS EVENING.
EXPECT SCT-BKN CLOUDS 2-6K FT AGL WITH MULTIPLE LAYERS ABV AND
IFR/MVFR CONDS OVER MTNS AND NEAR SHOWERS. WIDESPREAD SHOWERS WILL
CONTINUE TO MOVE FROM WEST TO EAST AND GRADUALLY WEAKEN ACROSS
EASTERN AREAS DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. SURFACE COLD FRONT
THROUGH KTUS AND KOLS BUT FRAGMENTING AND STALLING AS IT PUSHES
TOWARD KDUG. SFC WINDS SLY 15-25 KTS WITH HIGHER GUSTS IN ADVANCE OF
COLD FRONT WITH MUCH LIGHTER WESTERLY WINDS BEHIND FRONT. SKY
CONDITIONS WILL GRADUALLY IMPROVE AFTER 03/06Z FROM WEST TO EAST.
AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR TAF AMENDMENTS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...THE SHOWERS AND WINDS WILL DIMINISH TONIGHT AS
THE COLD FRONT MOVES INTO NEW MEXICO. ANOTHER WEATHER SYSTEM WILL
IMPACT THE AREA ON LATE TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY FOR ANOTHER
CHANCE OF SHOWERS ESPECIALLY NEAR THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER. DRY AND
WARMER THURSDAY ONWARD.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...SHOWERS EVER SO SLOWLY ARE MOVING EAST ACROSS THE
FORECAST THIS AFTERNOON. MAIN BAND WAS STILL WEST OF TUCSON WITH
RAINFALL AMOUNTS SO FAR ACROSS CENTRAL TO WESTERN PIMA COUNTY
RANGING IN THE 0.25" TO 1" RANGE WITH THE HIGHER VALUES ACROSS WERE
PIMA COUNTY NEAR AJO. SNOW LEVEL WAS AROUND 9KFT FROM TUCSON EAST
BUT WILL BE LOWERING AS THE COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO PUSH EAST
THROUGH THIS EVENING. WILL HAVE TO RELY ON CONVECTIVE BANDS AND
UPSLOPE CONDITIONS TO GET OUR SNOW TOTALS TO THE ADVISORY AND
WARNING CRITERIA FOR THE MOUNTAINS FROM NEAR TUCSON TO THE WHITES
MOUNTAINS. STRONG GUSTY WINDS OUT AHEAD OF COLD FRONT WITH WIND
ADVISORY FOR THE HIGHER TERRAIN AND COCHISE COUNTY OUT UNTIL 8 PM.
ALONG THE FRONT WIND GUSTS HAVE BEEN IN THE 40-50 MPH. THE UPPER LOW
RESPONSIBLE FOR THE RAIN AND MOUNTAIN SNOW HAS OPENED UP THIS
AFTERNOON AS IT MOVED INTO SRN CA AND IT WILL CONTINUE TO LIFT NE
ACROSS NRN AZ TONIGHT. SHOWERS WILL BE DIMINISHING AREAWIDE FROM
WEST TO EAST ALTHOUGH AREAS EAST OF TUCSON WILL HOLD ON TO SHOWERS A
BIT LONGER OVERNIGHT.

FOLLOW-UP SYSTEM...CURRENTLY BECOMING A CUT-OFF LOW OFF CENTRAL CA
COAST THIS AFTERNOON...WILL CONTINUE TO DIG SOUTH TONIGHT INTO
TUESDAY MORNING. THIS LOW WILL DIG FURTHER SOUTH TO OFF THE NRN BAJA
COAST BY LATE TUESDAY MORNING AND THEN TURN EAST ACROSS NORTHERN
BAJA TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND ALONG OR JUST SOUTH OF THE INTERNATIONAL
BORDER TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. THIS FEATURE WILL BRING ANOTHER
CHANCE OF SHOWERS TO THE AREA...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN ZONES
WITH THE BEST CHANCES BEING ALONG THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER. HAVE
INCREASED POPS FOR THIS AREA TUE NGT INTO WED BUT LATER SHIFTS MAY
NEED TO BOOST THEM UP A LITTLE MORE. NOT LOOKING AT A BIG QPF EVENT
WITH THIS FEATURE WILL AMOUNTS GENERALLY LESS A TENTH OF AN INCH.

THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...DRY WITH UPPER HIGH OVER CENTRAL/NORTHERN CA
AND WEAK TROFINESS OVER THE AREA. DAYTIME TEMPERATURES WILL BE
WARMING BOTH DAYS.

SATURDAY THRU MONDAY...REMAINING DRY WITH HIGHS RUNNING 4-8 DEGREES
ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
 WINTER STORM WARNING IN EFFECT UNTIL 1 AM MST TUESDAY ABOVE 6500
  FEET FOR AZZ510-511.

&&

$$

VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...YOUTUBE...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/TUCSON









000
FXUS65 KTWC 030431
AFDTWC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ
930 PM MST MON MAR 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...A FEW SHOWERS POSSIBLE WITH SOME ADDITIONAL SNOW IN THE
MOUNTAINS...OTHERWISE PARTIAL CLEARING AND COOLER TONIGHT BEHIND A
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM EXITING THE STATE. A FOLLOW UP SYSTEM WILL MOVE
ALONG OR JUST SOUTH OF THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER TUESDAY NIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY AND BRING ANOTHER CHANCE OF VALLEY RAIN AND MOUNTAIN SNOW.
DRY CONDITIONS AREAWIDE AND WARMER TEMPERATURES STARTING THURSDAY
INTO THE WEEKEND.

&&

.DISCUSSION...SOLID SHOT OF PRECIP FOR MOST OF THE AREA OVER THE
PAST 6 HOURS. FRAGMENTED FRONTAL BOUNDARY STALLING OUT IN COCHISE
COUNTY WITH DECENT SHOWERS CONTINUING ALONG AND JUST BEHIND ITS
REMAINS. THIS COULD END UP BEING A PROBLEM FOR SOME AREAS OF THE
COUNTY THAT HAVE ALREADY SEEN BETWEEN .75 AND 1 INCH OF RAINFALL
(SUCH AS JUST SOUTH OF THE SIERRA VISTA AREA). SOMETHING WE WILL
HAVE TO KEEP AN EYE ON.

SPOTTIER SHOWER ACTIVITY FOR MOST OF THE REST OF THE AREA AS THE
INITIAL SYSTEM LIFTS QUICKLY INTO COLORADO TONIGHT. SNOW LEVELS
RANGE FROM ABOUT 8500 FEET IN SOUTHERN COCHISE COUNTY TO 6500-7000
FEET FROM TUCSON NORTHWARD. BEST GUESS IS THE CATALINAS GOT
SOMEWHERE FROM 3 TO 6 INCHES BUT WE WON`T HAVE ANY REPORTS UNTIL
TUESDAY MORNING. THE WINTER STORM WARNING FOR THE MOUNTAINS OF
GRAHAM AND GREENLEE COUNTIES REMAINS IN EFFECT. AS OF 9 PM HANNAGAN
MEADOW WAS UP TO ABOUT 6 INCHES. CAMERAS ON MT GRAHAM AND RAINFALL
GAGES AT THE BASE OF THE MOUNTAIN SUGGEST 4 TO 6 INCHES SO FAR WITH
ANOTHER BATCH MOVING UP FROM THE SOUTH.

&&

.AVIATION...VALID THRU 04/06Z.
A STORM SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO IMPACT THE AREA THRU THIS EVENING.
EXPECT SCT-BKN CLOUDS 2-6K FT AGL WITH MULTIPLE LAYERS ABV AND
IFR/MVFR CONDS OVER MTNS AND NEAR SHOWERS. WIDESPREAD SHOWERS WILL
CONTINUE TO MOVE FROM WEST TO EAST AND GRADUALLY WEAKEN ACROSS
EASTERN AREAS DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. SURFACE COLD FRONT
THROUGH KTUS AND KOLS BUT FRAGMENTING AND STALLING AS IT PUSHES
TOWARD KDUG. SFC WINDS SLY 15-25 KTS WITH HIGHER GUSTS IN ADVANCE OF
COLD FRONT WITH MUCH LIGHTER WESTERLY WINDS BEHIND FRONT. SKY
CONDITIONS WILL GRADUALLY IMPROVE AFTER 03/06Z FROM WEST TO EAST.
AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR TAF AMENDMENTS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...THE SHOWERS AND WINDS WILL DIMINISH TONIGHT AS
THE COLD FRONT MOVES INTO NEW MEXICO. ANOTHER WEATHER SYSTEM WILL
IMPACT THE AREA ON LATE TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY FOR ANOTHER
CHANCE OF SHOWERS ESPECIALLY NEAR THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER. DRY AND
WARMER THURSDAY ONWARD.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...SHOWERS EVER SO SLOWLY ARE MOVING EAST ACROSS THE
FORECAST THIS AFTERNOON. MAIN BAND WAS STILL WEST OF TUCSON WITH
RAINFALL AMOUNTS SO FAR ACROSS CENTRAL TO WESTERN PIMA COUNTY
RANGING IN THE 0.25" TO 1" RANGE WITH THE HIGHER VALUES ACROSS WERE
PIMA COUNTY NEAR AJO. SNOW LEVEL WAS AROUND 9KFT FROM TUCSON EAST
BUT WILL BE LOWERING AS THE COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO PUSH EAST
THROUGH THIS EVENING. WILL HAVE TO RELY ON CONVECTIVE BANDS AND
UPSLOPE CONDITIONS TO GET OUR SNOW TOTALS TO THE ADVISORY AND
WARNING CRITERIA FOR THE MOUNTAINS FROM NEAR TUCSON TO THE WHITES
MOUNTAINS. STRONG GUSTY WINDS OUT AHEAD OF COLD FRONT WITH WIND
ADVISORY FOR THE HIGHER TERRAIN AND COCHISE COUNTY OUT UNTIL 8 PM.
ALONG THE FRONT WIND GUSTS HAVE BEEN IN THE 40-50 MPH. THE UPPER LOW
RESPONSIBLE FOR THE RAIN AND MOUNTAIN SNOW HAS OPENED UP THIS
AFTERNOON AS IT MOVED INTO SRN CA AND IT WILL CONTINUE TO LIFT NE
ACROSS NRN AZ TONIGHT. SHOWERS WILL BE DIMINISHING AREAWIDE FROM
WEST TO EAST ALTHOUGH AREAS EAST OF TUCSON WILL HOLD ON TO SHOWERS A
BIT LONGER OVERNIGHT.

FOLLOW-UP SYSTEM...CURRENTLY BECOMING A CUT-OFF LOW OFF CENTRAL CA
COAST THIS AFTERNOON...WILL CONTINUE TO DIG SOUTH TONIGHT INTO
TUESDAY MORNING. THIS LOW WILL DIG FURTHER SOUTH TO OFF THE NRN BAJA
COAST BY LATE TUESDAY MORNING AND THEN TURN EAST ACROSS NORTHERN
BAJA TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND ALONG OR JUST SOUTH OF THE INTERNATIONAL
BORDER TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. THIS FEATURE WILL BRING ANOTHER
CHANCE OF SHOWERS TO THE AREA...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN ZONES
WITH THE BEST CHANCES BEING ALONG THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER. HAVE
INCREASED POPS FOR THIS AREA TUE NGT INTO WED BUT LATER SHIFTS MAY
NEED TO BOOST THEM UP A LITTLE MORE. NOT LOOKING AT A BIG QPF EVENT
WITH THIS FEATURE WILL AMOUNTS GENERALLY LESS A TENTH OF AN INCH.

THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...DRY WITH UPPER HIGH OVER CENTRAL/NORTHERN CA
AND WEAK TROFINESS OVER THE AREA. DAYTIME TEMPERATURES WILL BE
WARMING BOTH DAYS.

SATURDAY THRU MONDAY...REMAINING DRY WITH HIGHS RUNNING 4-8 DEGREES
ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
 WINTER STORM WARNING IN EFFECT UNTIL 1 AM MST TUESDAY ABOVE 6500
  FEET FOR AZZ510-511.

&&

$$

VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...YOUTUBE...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/TUCSON










000
FXUS65 KFGZ 030416
AFDFGZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ
915 PM MST MON MAR 02 2015

.SYNOPSIS...THE STORM SYSTEM THAT BROUGHT DAYS OF RAIN AND SNOW TO
THE AREA HAS MOVED EAST INTO NEW MEXICO. PARTIAL CLEARING AND COLD
CONDITIONS WILL DEVELOP OVERNIGHT...WITH SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS
CONTINUING OVER PORTIONS OF YAVAPAI AND COCONINO COUNTIES. A SECOND
STORM WILL APPROACH ARIZONA FROM THE NORTH ON TUESDAY...BRINGING
MORE RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS TO THE AREA THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT. AFTER
A COLD BUT DRY DAY ON WEDNESDAY...HIGH PRESSURE AND A WARMING TREND
RETURNS FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...OUR FRONTAL SYSTEM HAS MOVED INTO NEW MEXICO WITH MOST
RAIN AND SNOW ACTIVITY ON THE VERGE OF BECOMING SHOWERY OVER THE FEW
REMAINING HEADLINED ZONES. FARTHER TO THE WEST...MANY AREAS HAVE
CLEARED OUT AS DRIER AS MORE STABLE AIR TRAILED THE FRONT. A WEAK
S/WV...THAT WAS SEEN EARLIER IN SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA...IS NOW MOVING
THROUGH YAVAPAI COUNTY. THIS WAVE BROUGHT INSTABILITY AND DECENT
MID-LEVEL MOISTURE ALONG FOR THE RIDE AND SNOW SHOWERS HAVE BECOME
MORE ACTIVE FROM FLAGSTAFF SOUTHWESTWARD AS A RESULT. WE HAVE
UPDATED FOR THESE TRENDS.

LATER TONIGHT AND INTO TUESDAY...MODELS SUGGEST THAT INSTABILITY AND
REMNANT MOISTURE...ALONG WITH INCREASINGLY CYCLONIC FLOW AND HGHT
FALLS...WILL MAKE FOR A MORE ACTIVE DAY THAN WAS PREVIOUSLY THOUGHT.
IN FACT...ANOTHER COLD UPPER LOW WILL DIVE INTO NORTHERN ARIZONA BY
TOMORROW EVENING...ENHANCING ANY SHOWER ACTIVITY ACROSS THE AREA.
MOST MODELS HAVE JUMPED ON THIS SOLUTION AND ARE SHOWING MUCH DEEPER
AND PROLONGED SATURATION TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT. WE HAVE RAMPED
UP POPS CONSIDERABLY FOR THIS AND ADDED SEVERAL INCHES OF NEW SNOW
ACROSS THE HIGH TERRAIN OF YAVAPAI AND COCONINO COUNTIES.

TOMORROW AND WEDNESDAY WILL ALSO BE QUITE COLD...BUT CLEARING SKIES
FROM NORTH TO SOUTH WEDNESDAY WILL USHER IN RISING HGHTS AND WARMER
CONDITIONS FOR THE END OF THE WEEK. UPDATES WILL CONTINUE TO COME
OUT TONIGHT...PLEASE CHECK YOUR LOCAL FORECAST FOR CHANGES.

&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 06Z PACKAGE...A COLD FRONT WILL EXIT NORTHERN
ARIZONA OVERNIGHT. CONVECTIVE RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS TO CONTINUE
ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH 06Z WEDS. EXPECT SCATTERED SHOWER COVERAGE
THROUGH 18Z TUES...THEN INCREASING COVERAGE. MVFR AND LCL IFR
CONDITIONS TO BE FOUND WITH THE STRONGER CELLS. AVIATION DISCUSSION
NOT UPDATED FOR TAF AMENDMENTS.

&&

.FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC.........PETERSON
AVIATION.......DL

FOR NORTHERN ARIZONA WEATHER INFORMATION VISIT
WEATHER.GOV/FLAGSTAFF





000
FXUS65 KFGZ 030416
AFDFGZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ
915 PM MST MON MAR 02 2015

.SYNOPSIS...THE STORM SYSTEM THAT BROUGHT DAYS OF RAIN AND SNOW TO
THE AREA HAS MOVED EAST INTO NEW MEXICO. PARTIAL CLEARING AND COLD
CONDITIONS WILL DEVELOP OVERNIGHT...WITH SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS
CONTINUING OVER PORTIONS OF YAVAPAI AND COCONINO COUNTIES. A SECOND
STORM WILL APPROACH ARIZONA FROM THE NORTH ON TUESDAY...BRINGING
MORE RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS TO THE AREA THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT. AFTER
A COLD BUT DRY DAY ON WEDNESDAY...HIGH PRESSURE AND A WARMING TREND
RETURNS FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...OUR FRONTAL SYSTEM HAS MOVED INTO NEW MEXICO WITH MOST
RAIN AND SNOW ACTIVITY ON THE VERGE OF BECOMING SHOWERY OVER THE FEW
REMAINING HEADLINED ZONES. FARTHER TO THE WEST...MANY AREAS HAVE
CLEARED OUT AS DRIER AS MORE STABLE AIR TRAILED THE FRONT. A WEAK
S/WV...THAT WAS SEEN EARLIER IN SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA...IS NOW MOVING
THROUGH YAVAPAI COUNTY. THIS WAVE BROUGHT INSTABILITY AND DECENT
MID-LEVEL MOISTURE ALONG FOR THE RIDE AND SNOW SHOWERS HAVE BECOME
MORE ACTIVE FROM FLAGSTAFF SOUTHWESTWARD AS A RESULT. WE HAVE
UPDATED FOR THESE TRENDS.

LATER TONIGHT AND INTO TUESDAY...MODELS SUGGEST THAT INSTABILITY AND
REMNANT MOISTURE...ALONG WITH INCREASINGLY CYCLONIC FLOW AND HGHT
FALLS...WILL MAKE FOR A MORE ACTIVE DAY THAN WAS PREVIOUSLY THOUGHT.
IN FACT...ANOTHER COLD UPPER LOW WILL DIVE INTO NORTHERN ARIZONA BY
TOMORROW EVENING...ENHANCING ANY SHOWER ACTIVITY ACROSS THE AREA.
MOST MODELS HAVE JUMPED ON THIS SOLUTION AND ARE SHOWING MUCH DEEPER
AND PROLONGED SATURATION TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT. WE HAVE RAMPED
UP POPS CONSIDERABLY FOR THIS AND ADDED SEVERAL INCHES OF NEW SNOW
ACROSS THE HIGH TERRAIN OF YAVAPAI AND COCONINO COUNTIES.

TOMORROW AND WEDNESDAY WILL ALSO BE QUITE COLD...BUT CLEARING SKIES
FROM NORTH TO SOUTH WEDNESDAY WILL USHER IN RISING HGHTS AND WARMER
CONDITIONS FOR THE END OF THE WEEK. UPDATES WILL CONTINUE TO COME
OUT TONIGHT...PLEASE CHECK YOUR LOCAL FORECAST FOR CHANGES.

&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 06Z PACKAGE...A COLD FRONT WILL EXIT NORTHERN
ARIZONA OVERNIGHT. CONVECTIVE RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS TO CONTINUE
ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH 06Z WEDS. EXPECT SCATTERED SHOWER COVERAGE
THROUGH 18Z TUES...THEN INCREASING COVERAGE. MVFR AND LCL IFR
CONDITIONS TO BE FOUND WITH THE STRONGER CELLS. AVIATION DISCUSSION
NOT UPDATED FOR TAF AMENDMENTS.

&&

.FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC.........PETERSON
AVIATION.......DL

FOR NORTHERN ARIZONA WEATHER INFORMATION VISIT
WEATHER.GOV/FLAGSTAFF





000
FXUS65 KFGZ 030416
AFDFGZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ
915 PM MST MON MAR 02 2015

.SYNOPSIS...THE STORM SYSTEM THAT BROUGHT DAYS OF RAIN AND SNOW TO
THE AREA HAS MOVED EAST INTO NEW MEXICO. PARTIAL CLEARING AND COLD
CONDITIONS WILL DEVELOP OVERNIGHT...WITH SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS
CONTINUING OVER PORTIONS OF YAVAPAI AND COCONINO COUNTIES. A SECOND
STORM WILL APPROACH ARIZONA FROM THE NORTH ON TUESDAY...BRINGING
MORE RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS TO THE AREA THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT. AFTER
A COLD BUT DRY DAY ON WEDNESDAY...HIGH PRESSURE AND A WARMING TREND
RETURNS FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...OUR FRONTAL SYSTEM HAS MOVED INTO NEW MEXICO WITH MOST
RAIN AND SNOW ACTIVITY ON THE VERGE OF BECOMING SHOWERY OVER THE FEW
REMAINING HEADLINED ZONES. FARTHER TO THE WEST...MANY AREAS HAVE
CLEARED OUT AS DRIER AS MORE STABLE AIR TRAILED THE FRONT. A WEAK
S/WV...THAT WAS SEEN EARLIER IN SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA...IS NOW MOVING
THROUGH YAVAPAI COUNTY. THIS WAVE BROUGHT INSTABILITY AND DECENT
MID-LEVEL MOISTURE ALONG FOR THE RIDE AND SNOW SHOWERS HAVE BECOME
MORE ACTIVE FROM FLAGSTAFF SOUTHWESTWARD AS A RESULT. WE HAVE
UPDATED FOR THESE TRENDS.

LATER TONIGHT AND INTO TUESDAY...MODELS SUGGEST THAT INSTABILITY AND
REMNANT MOISTURE...ALONG WITH INCREASINGLY CYCLONIC FLOW AND HGHT
FALLS...WILL MAKE FOR A MORE ACTIVE DAY THAN WAS PREVIOUSLY THOUGHT.
IN FACT...ANOTHER COLD UPPER LOW WILL DIVE INTO NORTHERN ARIZONA BY
TOMORROW EVENING...ENHANCING ANY SHOWER ACTIVITY ACROSS THE AREA.
MOST MODELS HAVE JUMPED ON THIS SOLUTION AND ARE SHOWING MUCH DEEPER
AND PROLONGED SATURATION TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT. WE HAVE RAMPED
UP POPS CONSIDERABLY FOR THIS AND ADDED SEVERAL INCHES OF NEW SNOW
ACROSS THE HIGH TERRAIN OF YAVAPAI AND COCONINO COUNTIES.

TOMORROW AND WEDNESDAY WILL ALSO BE QUITE COLD...BUT CLEARING SKIES
FROM NORTH TO SOUTH WEDNESDAY WILL USHER IN RISING HGHTS AND WARMER
CONDITIONS FOR THE END OF THE WEEK. UPDATES WILL CONTINUE TO COME
OUT TONIGHT...PLEASE CHECK YOUR LOCAL FORECAST FOR CHANGES.

&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 06Z PACKAGE...A COLD FRONT WILL EXIT NORTHERN
ARIZONA OVERNIGHT. CONVECTIVE RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS TO CONTINUE
ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH 06Z WEDS. EXPECT SCATTERED SHOWER COVERAGE
THROUGH 18Z TUES...THEN INCREASING COVERAGE. MVFR AND LCL IFR
CONDITIONS TO BE FOUND WITH THE STRONGER CELLS. AVIATION DISCUSSION
NOT UPDATED FOR TAF AMENDMENTS.

&&

.FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC.........PETERSON
AVIATION.......DL

FOR NORTHERN ARIZONA WEATHER INFORMATION VISIT
WEATHER.GOV/FLAGSTAFF





000
FXUS65 KFGZ 030416
AFDFGZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ
915 PM MST MON MAR 02 2015

.SYNOPSIS...THE STORM SYSTEM THAT BROUGHT DAYS OF RAIN AND SNOW TO
THE AREA HAS MOVED EAST INTO NEW MEXICO. PARTIAL CLEARING AND COLD
CONDITIONS WILL DEVELOP OVERNIGHT...WITH SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS
CONTINUING OVER PORTIONS OF YAVAPAI AND COCONINO COUNTIES. A SECOND
STORM WILL APPROACH ARIZONA FROM THE NORTH ON TUESDAY...BRINGING
MORE RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS TO THE AREA THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT. AFTER
A COLD BUT DRY DAY ON WEDNESDAY...HIGH PRESSURE AND A WARMING TREND
RETURNS FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...OUR FRONTAL SYSTEM HAS MOVED INTO NEW MEXICO WITH MOST
RAIN AND SNOW ACTIVITY ON THE VERGE OF BECOMING SHOWERY OVER THE FEW
REMAINING HEADLINED ZONES. FARTHER TO THE WEST...MANY AREAS HAVE
CLEARED OUT AS DRIER AS MORE STABLE AIR TRAILED THE FRONT. A WEAK
S/WV...THAT WAS SEEN EARLIER IN SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA...IS NOW MOVING
THROUGH YAVAPAI COUNTY. THIS WAVE BROUGHT INSTABILITY AND DECENT
MID-LEVEL MOISTURE ALONG FOR THE RIDE AND SNOW SHOWERS HAVE BECOME
MORE ACTIVE FROM FLAGSTAFF SOUTHWESTWARD AS A RESULT. WE HAVE
UPDATED FOR THESE TRENDS.

LATER TONIGHT AND INTO TUESDAY...MODELS SUGGEST THAT INSTABILITY AND
REMNANT MOISTURE...ALONG WITH INCREASINGLY CYCLONIC FLOW AND HGHT
FALLS...WILL MAKE FOR A MORE ACTIVE DAY THAN WAS PREVIOUSLY THOUGHT.
IN FACT...ANOTHER COLD UPPER LOW WILL DIVE INTO NORTHERN ARIZONA BY
TOMORROW EVENING...ENHANCING ANY SHOWER ACTIVITY ACROSS THE AREA.
MOST MODELS HAVE JUMPED ON THIS SOLUTION AND ARE SHOWING MUCH DEEPER
AND PROLONGED SATURATION TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT. WE HAVE RAMPED
UP POPS CONSIDERABLY FOR THIS AND ADDED SEVERAL INCHES OF NEW SNOW
ACROSS THE HIGH TERRAIN OF YAVAPAI AND COCONINO COUNTIES.

TOMORROW AND WEDNESDAY WILL ALSO BE QUITE COLD...BUT CLEARING SKIES
FROM NORTH TO SOUTH WEDNESDAY WILL USHER IN RISING HGHTS AND WARMER
CONDITIONS FOR THE END OF THE WEEK. UPDATES WILL CONTINUE TO COME
OUT TONIGHT...PLEASE CHECK YOUR LOCAL FORECAST FOR CHANGES.

&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 06Z PACKAGE...A COLD FRONT WILL EXIT NORTHERN
ARIZONA OVERNIGHT. CONVECTIVE RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS TO CONTINUE
ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH 06Z WEDS. EXPECT SCATTERED SHOWER COVERAGE
THROUGH 18Z TUES...THEN INCREASING COVERAGE. MVFR AND LCL IFR
CONDITIONS TO BE FOUND WITH THE STRONGER CELLS. AVIATION DISCUSSION
NOT UPDATED FOR TAF AMENDMENTS.

&&

.FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC.........PETERSON
AVIATION.......DL

FOR NORTHERN ARIZONA WEATHER INFORMATION VISIT
WEATHER.GOV/FLAGSTAFF





000
FXUS65 KPSR 030312
AFDPSR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PHOENIX AZ
810 PM MST MON MAR 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A RELATIVELY COOL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL LINGER OVER THE REGION
THROUGH WEDNESDAY...PRODUCING PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES AND BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES. A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS ARE ALSO FORECAST ACROSS
SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH CENTRAL ARIZONA THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING.
A RETURN TO ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES IS LIKELY BY THURSDAY...INTO
THE WEEKEND AS HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM BUILDS OVER THE DESERT
SOUTHWEST.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
AT 8 PM MST THE COLD FRONT HAD SHIFTED INTO EASTERN ARIZONA ALONG
WITH THE PRECIP BAND. IN THE WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT THIS EVENING A
FEW SHOWERS CONTINUED OVER PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST CA...SOUTHWEST AND
SOUTH CENTRAL AZ. THIS EVENINGS UPPER AIR DATA CONTINUED TO SHOW LOW
LEVEL SOUTHWEST WINDS STILL ENTRAINING BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE INTO
SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH CENTRAL AZ FROM THE BAJA REGION. THIS MOISTURE
COMBINED WITH A BROAD UPPER TROF THROUGH TUESDAY WILL CONTINUE A
MARGINAL THREAT OF SHOWERS. CLEARING WEDNESDAY.

VARIABLE AMOUNTS OF BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS
SHOULD PREVENT WIDESPREAD FOG FROM DEVELOPING OVER SOUTH CENTRAL
AZ...INCLUDING THE GREATER PHOENIX AREA TUESDAY MORNING. PATCHY AT
BEST.

MODIFICATIONS TO THIS EVENINGS FORECASTS WERE MADE EARLIER...
INCLUDING CANCELING THE FLOOD WATCH FOR SOUTH CENTRAL AZ. NO FURTHER
UPDATES NECESSARY THE REMAINDER OF TONIGHT.



.PORTIONS OF PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...333 PM MST...

A RATHER COMPLICATED UPPER TROF ALONG THE WEST COAST CONTINUED TO
AFFECT THE DESERT SOUTHWEST...INCLUDING SERN CA AND ARIZONA...EARLY
THIS AFTERNOON. UPPER LOW CENTER CONTINUED TO SPIN ALONG THE FAR
SERN CA COAST...WHILE THE MAIN COLD FRONTAL BAND PUSHED EAST AND
INTO EAST-CENTRAL ARIZONA AT 130 PM. FRONT WAS MOVING PAST CENTRAL
PHOENIX AND INTO SOUTHERN GILA COUNTY...BUT WIDESPREAD SHOWERS
CONTINUED ACROSS MOST OF MARICOPA COUNTY AS WELL AS SOUTHERN GILA
COUNTY. RADAR AND GAGE REPORTS INDICATED THAT MOST RAINFALL TOTALS
SINCE NOON WERE LESS THAN ONE THIRD OF AN INCH...AND IN FACT MOST OF
THE GAGES IN THE MARICOPA COUNTY FLOOD CONTROL DISTRICT NETWORK
MEASURED WELL BELOW ONE QUARTER INCH SINCE 1230 PM.

BY EARLY THIS EVENING...THE MAIN FOCUS OF THIS STORM SYSTEM...THE
FRONTAL BAND AND ASSOCIATED RAIN/RAIN SHOWER SHIELD...WILL PUSH EAST
AND INTO FAR EASTERN AZ AND NEW MEXICO. AT THE SAME TIME THE LOW
ALONG THE SERN CA COAST WILL WEAKEN AND BE MOVED INLAND AS A KICKER
LOW DROPS SOUTH ALONG THE CENTRAL CA COAST. AS SUCH THE CHANCES FOR
MEASURABLE PRECIP WILL DROP OFF SIGNIFICANTLY THIS EVENING...INTO
THE CHANCE CATEGORY OVER THE CENTRAL DESERTS WITH LINGERING LIKELY
POPS ACROSS SRN GILA COUNTY. AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT WE EXPECT MAINLY
SINGLE DIGIT POPS ACROSS THE SWRN AZ DESERTS AS WELL AS SERN CA.
MODELS ARE CONSISTENT IN CALLING FOR THIS KICKER LOW TO DROP
SOUTHEAST TOWARDS THE NRN BAJA CA COAST TONIGHT...THEN SLOWLY DRIFT
EAST AND PASS BY ARIZONA TO THE SOUTH TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. AS THE
LOW PASSES BY...DYNAMICS OVER SRN AZ BECOME WEAK...BUT SIGNIFICANT
LOW/MID LEVEL MOISTURE REMAINS IN PLACE AND AS SUCH WE WILL CONTINUE
A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR INSTABILITY SHOWERS OVER SOUTH CENTRAL AZ
TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT. IN FACT...INSTABILITY LOOKS TO BE A BIT
BETTER ON TUESDAY WITH LI VALUES GOING WEAKLY NEGATIVE AND THUS WE
HAVE A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR THUNDER IN THE FORECAST ACROSS SOUTH
CENTRAL AZ ON TUESDAY. BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THE ONLY THREAT FOR
PRECIP WILL BE OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN EAST OF PHOENIX...AND SKIES
WILL BECOME MOSTLY SUNNY FROM PHOENIX WESTWARD INTO SERN CA. TEMPS
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY WILLS STEADILY WARM BUT WILL REMAIN BELOW
SEASONAL NORMALS.

ONE ISSUE WE WILL CONTEND WITH TONIGHT WILL BE FOG POTENTIAL ACROSS
SOUTH CENTRAL ARIZONA. MANY LOCATIONS WILL SEE AT LEAST MODERATE
RAINFALL TOTALS TODAY...AND HUMIDITY LEVELS WILL REMAIN HIGH
OVERNIGHT. HOWEVER...WE EXPECT LINGERING LOW/MID CLOUD DECKS TONIGHT
INTO TUESDAY...REDUCING RADIATIONAL COOLING POTENTIAL. ALSO...
FORECAST SOUNDINGS ARE NOT CLASSICAL FOG SOUNDINGS. WINDS WILL BE
LIGHT BUT SHOULD NOT BE CALM FOR EXTENDED PERIODS. THUS...THERE MAY
BE PATCHY FOG WITH VISIBILITY DOWN BELOW 5 MILES AT TIMES BUT WE DO
NOT EXPECT SIGNIFICANT DENSE FOG. AS A COMPROMISE WE ADDED PATCHY
FOG TO OUR FORECAST ZONES EAST OF THE LOWER CO RIVER TONIGHT.

FOR THURSDAY...A DRYING AND SUBSIDENT NORTHERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL SET
UP ACROSS THE AREA AS HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT STARTS TO BUILD ALONG THE
CA COAST. THIS WILL LEAD TO SUNNY SKIES...AND CONTINUED WARMING
WITH HIGH TEMPS REACHING INTO THE LOW TO MID 70S...AND TOWARDS
SEASONAL NORMALS.

FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND...
A WARMING TREND IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THIS PERIOD UNDER
MAINLY CLEAR SKIES AS HIGH PRESSURE STRENGTHENS OVER THE
REGION...WITH A DECENT CHANCE FOR HIGHS IN THE 80S ACROSS THE LOWER
DESERTS BY THE WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION...
SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA INCLUDING KPHX...KIWA AND KSDL...
A BROAD COOL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL REMAIN OVER THE AREA THROUGH
TUESDAY. VARIABLE AMOUNTS OF MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE A SLIGHT THREAT
OF SHOWERS THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING...ALONG WITH SCT-BKN CLOUDS BASED
BETWEEN 6-8 THSD AGL THROUGH 20Z TUE. LIGHT WIND.

SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA AND SOUTHWEST ARIZONA INCLUDING KIPL AND KBLH...
A BROAD COOL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL REMAIN OVER THE AREA THROUGH
TUESDAY. VARIABLE AMOUNTS OF MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE SCT-BKN CLOUDS
BASED 8-12 THSD AGL THROUGH 20Z TUE. LIGHT WIND.

AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDED TAFS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...
STRONG HIGH PRESSURE AND MUCH DRIER CONDITIONS WILL MOVE BACK INTO
THE DISTRICT DURING THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK. TEMPERATURES WILL
REBOUND BACK INTO A NORMAL TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL RANGE...WHILE
AFTERNOON HUMIDITY LEVELS RETURN INTO A 15 TO 25 PERCENT RANGE.
OVERNIGHT RECOVERY WILL BE GOOD. PERIODS OF GUSTY NORTH WINDS DOWN
THE COLORADO RIVER VALLEY WILL BE LIKELY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...WHILE
OCCASIONAL PERIODS OF STRONGER EASTERLY WINDS OVER RIDGE TOPS OF
CENTRAL ARIZONA MAY BE COMMON LATE IN THE WEEK.

&&

.PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

AZ...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH 8 PM TODAY AZZ022>024.

CA...NONE.

&&

$$

VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/PHOENIX

DISCUSSION...VASQUEZ/CB/PERCHA
AVIATION...VASQUEZ
FIRE WEATHER...MO










000
FXUS65 KPSR 030312
AFDPSR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PHOENIX AZ
810 PM MST MON MAR 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A RELATIVELY COOL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL LINGER OVER THE REGION
THROUGH WEDNESDAY...PRODUCING PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES AND BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES. A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS ARE ALSO FORECAST ACROSS
SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH CENTRAL ARIZONA THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING.
A RETURN TO ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES IS LIKELY BY THURSDAY...INTO
THE WEEKEND AS HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM BUILDS OVER THE DESERT
SOUTHWEST.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
AT 8 PM MST THE COLD FRONT HAD SHIFTED INTO EASTERN ARIZONA ALONG
WITH THE PRECIP BAND. IN THE WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT THIS EVENING A
FEW SHOWERS CONTINUED OVER PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST CA...SOUTHWEST AND
SOUTH CENTRAL AZ. THIS EVENINGS UPPER AIR DATA CONTINUED TO SHOW LOW
LEVEL SOUTHWEST WINDS STILL ENTRAINING BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE INTO
SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH CENTRAL AZ FROM THE BAJA REGION. THIS MOISTURE
COMBINED WITH A BROAD UPPER TROF THROUGH TUESDAY WILL CONTINUE A
MARGINAL THREAT OF SHOWERS. CLEARING WEDNESDAY.

VARIABLE AMOUNTS OF BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS
SHOULD PREVENT WIDESPREAD FOG FROM DEVELOPING OVER SOUTH CENTRAL
AZ...INCLUDING THE GREATER PHOENIX AREA TUESDAY MORNING. PATCHY AT
BEST.

MODIFICATIONS TO THIS EVENINGS FORECASTS WERE MADE EARLIER...
INCLUDING CANCELING THE FLOOD WATCH FOR SOUTH CENTRAL AZ. NO FURTHER
UPDATES NECESSARY THE REMAINDER OF TONIGHT.



.PORTIONS OF PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...333 PM MST...

A RATHER COMPLICATED UPPER TROF ALONG THE WEST COAST CONTINUED TO
AFFECT THE DESERT SOUTHWEST...INCLUDING SERN CA AND ARIZONA...EARLY
THIS AFTERNOON. UPPER LOW CENTER CONTINUED TO SPIN ALONG THE FAR
SERN CA COAST...WHILE THE MAIN COLD FRONTAL BAND PUSHED EAST AND
INTO EAST-CENTRAL ARIZONA AT 130 PM. FRONT WAS MOVING PAST CENTRAL
PHOENIX AND INTO SOUTHERN GILA COUNTY...BUT WIDESPREAD SHOWERS
CONTINUED ACROSS MOST OF MARICOPA COUNTY AS WELL AS SOUTHERN GILA
COUNTY. RADAR AND GAGE REPORTS INDICATED THAT MOST RAINFALL TOTALS
SINCE NOON WERE LESS THAN ONE THIRD OF AN INCH...AND IN FACT MOST OF
THE GAGES IN THE MARICOPA COUNTY FLOOD CONTROL DISTRICT NETWORK
MEASURED WELL BELOW ONE QUARTER INCH SINCE 1230 PM.

BY EARLY THIS EVENING...THE MAIN FOCUS OF THIS STORM SYSTEM...THE
FRONTAL BAND AND ASSOCIATED RAIN/RAIN SHOWER SHIELD...WILL PUSH EAST
AND INTO FAR EASTERN AZ AND NEW MEXICO. AT THE SAME TIME THE LOW
ALONG THE SERN CA COAST WILL WEAKEN AND BE MOVED INLAND AS A KICKER
LOW DROPS SOUTH ALONG THE CENTRAL CA COAST. AS SUCH THE CHANCES FOR
MEASURABLE PRECIP WILL DROP OFF SIGNIFICANTLY THIS EVENING...INTO
THE CHANCE CATEGORY OVER THE CENTRAL DESERTS WITH LINGERING LIKELY
POPS ACROSS SRN GILA COUNTY. AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT WE EXPECT MAINLY
SINGLE DIGIT POPS ACROSS THE SWRN AZ DESERTS AS WELL AS SERN CA.
MODELS ARE CONSISTENT IN CALLING FOR THIS KICKER LOW TO DROP
SOUTHEAST TOWARDS THE NRN BAJA CA COAST TONIGHT...THEN SLOWLY DRIFT
EAST AND PASS BY ARIZONA TO THE SOUTH TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. AS THE
LOW PASSES BY...DYNAMICS OVER SRN AZ BECOME WEAK...BUT SIGNIFICANT
LOW/MID LEVEL MOISTURE REMAINS IN PLACE AND AS SUCH WE WILL CONTINUE
A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR INSTABILITY SHOWERS OVER SOUTH CENTRAL AZ
TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT. IN FACT...INSTABILITY LOOKS TO BE A BIT
BETTER ON TUESDAY WITH LI VALUES GOING WEAKLY NEGATIVE AND THUS WE
HAVE A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR THUNDER IN THE FORECAST ACROSS SOUTH
CENTRAL AZ ON TUESDAY. BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THE ONLY THREAT FOR
PRECIP WILL BE OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN EAST OF PHOENIX...AND SKIES
WILL BECOME MOSTLY SUNNY FROM PHOENIX WESTWARD INTO SERN CA. TEMPS
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY WILLS STEADILY WARM BUT WILL REMAIN BELOW
SEASONAL NORMALS.

ONE ISSUE WE WILL CONTEND WITH TONIGHT WILL BE FOG POTENTIAL ACROSS
SOUTH CENTRAL ARIZONA. MANY LOCATIONS WILL SEE AT LEAST MODERATE
RAINFALL TOTALS TODAY...AND HUMIDITY LEVELS WILL REMAIN HIGH
OVERNIGHT. HOWEVER...WE EXPECT LINGERING LOW/MID CLOUD DECKS TONIGHT
INTO TUESDAY...REDUCING RADIATIONAL COOLING POTENTIAL. ALSO...
FORECAST SOUNDINGS ARE NOT CLASSICAL FOG SOUNDINGS. WINDS WILL BE
LIGHT BUT SHOULD NOT BE CALM FOR EXTENDED PERIODS. THUS...THERE MAY
BE PATCHY FOG WITH VISIBILITY DOWN BELOW 5 MILES AT TIMES BUT WE DO
NOT EXPECT SIGNIFICANT DENSE FOG. AS A COMPROMISE WE ADDED PATCHY
FOG TO OUR FORECAST ZONES EAST OF THE LOWER CO RIVER TONIGHT.

FOR THURSDAY...A DRYING AND SUBSIDENT NORTHERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL SET
UP ACROSS THE AREA AS HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT STARTS TO BUILD ALONG THE
CA COAST. THIS WILL LEAD TO SUNNY SKIES...AND CONTINUED WARMING
WITH HIGH TEMPS REACHING INTO THE LOW TO MID 70S...AND TOWARDS
SEASONAL NORMALS.

FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND...
A WARMING TREND IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THIS PERIOD UNDER
MAINLY CLEAR SKIES AS HIGH PRESSURE STRENGTHENS OVER THE
REGION...WITH A DECENT CHANCE FOR HIGHS IN THE 80S ACROSS THE LOWER
DESERTS BY THE WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION...
SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA INCLUDING KPHX...KIWA AND KSDL...
A BROAD COOL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL REMAIN OVER THE AREA THROUGH
TUESDAY. VARIABLE AMOUNTS OF MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE A SLIGHT THREAT
OF SHOWERS THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING...ALONG WITH SCT-BKN CLOUDS BASED
BETWEEN 6-8 THSD AGL THROUGH 20Z TUE. LIGHT WIND.

SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA AND SOUTHWEST ARIZONA INCLUDING KIPL AND KBLH...
A BROAD COOL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL REMAIN OVER THE AREA THROUGH
TUESDAY. VARIABLE AMOUNTS OF MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE SCT-BKN CLOUDS
BASED 8-12 THSD AGL THROUGH 20Z TUE. LIGHT WIND.

AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDED TAFS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...
STRONG HIGH PRESSURE AND MUCH DRIER CONDITIONS WILL MOVE BACK INTO
THE DISTRICT DURING THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK. TEMPERATURES WILL
REBOUND BACK INTO A NORMAL TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL RANGE...WHILE
AFTERNOON HUMIDITY LEVELS RETURN INTO A 15 TO 25 PERCENT RANGE.
OVERNIGHT RECOVERY WILL BE GOOD. PERIODS OF GUSTY NORTH WINDS DOWN
THE COLORADO RIVER VALLEY WILL BE LIKELY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...WHILE
OCCASIONAL PERIODS OF STRONGER EASTERLY WINDS OVER RIDGE TOPS OF
CENTRAL ARIZONA MAY BE COMMON LATE IN THE WEEK.

&&

.PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

AZ...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH 8 PM TODAY AZZ022>024.

CA...NONE.

&&

$$

VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/PHOENIX

DISCUSSION...VASQUEZ/CB/PERCHA
AVIATION...VASQUEZ
FIRE WEATHER...MO










000
FXUS65 KPSR 030312
AFDPSR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PHOENIX AZ
810 PM MST MON MAR 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A RELATIVELY COOL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL LINGER OVER THE REGION
THROUGH WEDNESDAY...PRODUCING PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES AND BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES. A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS ARE ALSO FORECAST ACROSS
SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH CENTRAL ARIZONA THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING.
A RETURN TO ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES IS LIKELY BY THURSDAY...INTO
THE WEEKEND AS HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM BUILDS OVER THE DESERT
SOUTHWEST.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
AT 8 PM MST THE COLD FRONT HAD SHIFTED INTO EASTERN ARIZONA ALONG
WITH THE PRECIP BAND. IN THE WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT THIS EVENING A
FEW SHOWERS CONTINUED OVER PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST CA...SOUTHWEST AND
SOUTH CENTRAL AZ. THIS EVENINGS UPPER AIR DATA CONTINUED TO SHOW LOW
LEVEL SOUTHWEST WINDS STILL ENTRAINING BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE INTO
SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH CENTRAL AZ FROM THE BAJA REGION. THIS MOISTURE
COMBINED WITH A BROAD UPPER TROF THROUGH TUESDAY WILL CONTINUE A
MARGINAL THREAT OF SHOWERS. CLEARING WEDNESDAY.

VARIABLE AMOUNTS OF BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS
SHOULD PREVENT WIDESPREAD FOG FROM DEVELOPING OVER SOUTH CENTRAL
AZ...INCLUDING THE GREATER PHOENIX AREA TUESDAY MORNING. PATCHY AT
BEST.

MODIFICATIONS TO THIS EVENINGS FORECASTS WERE MADE EARLIER...
INCLUDING CANCELING THE FLOOD WATCH FOR SOUTH CENTRAL AZ. NO FURTHER
UPDATES NECESSARY THE REMAINDER OF TONIGHT.



.PORTIONS OF PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...333 PM MST...

A RATHER COMPLICATED UPPER TROF ALONG THE WEST COAST CONTINUED TO
AFFECT THE DESERT SOUTHWEST...INCLUDING SERN CA AND ARIZONA...EARLY
THIS AFTERNOON. UPPER LOW CENTER CONTINUED TO SPIN ALONG THE FAR
SERN CA COAST...WHILE THE MAIN COLD FRONTAL BAND PUSHED EAST AND
INTO EAST-CENTRAL ARIZONA AT 130 PM. FRONT WAS MOVING PAST CENTRAL
PHOENIX AND INTO SOUTHERN GILA COUNTY...BUT WIDESPREAD SHOWERS
CONTINUED ACROSS MOST OF MARICOPA COUNTY AS WELL AS SOUTHERN GILA
COUNTY. RADAR AND GAGE REPORTS INDICATED THAT MOST RAINFALL TOTALS
SINCE NOON WERE LESS THAN ONE THIRD OF AN INCH...AND IN FACT MOST OF
THE GAGES IN THE MARICOPA COUNTY FLOOD CONTROL DISTRICT NETWORK
MEASURED WELL BELOW ONE QUARTER INCH SINCE 1230 PM.

BY EARLY THIS EVENING...THE MAIN FOCUS OF THIS STORM SYSTEM...THE
FRONTAL BAND AND ASSOCIATED RAIN/RAIN SHOWER SHIELD...WILL PUSH EAST
AND INTO FAR EASTERN AZ AND NEW MEXICO. AT THE SAME TIME THE LOW
ALONG THE SERN CA COAST WILL WEAKEN AND BE MOVED INLAND AS A KICKER
LOW DROPS SOUTH ALONG THE CENTRAL CA COAST. AS SUCH THE CHANCES FOR
MEASURABLE PRECIP WILL DROP OFF SIGNIFICANTLY THIS EVENING...INTO
THE CHANCE CATEGORY OVER THE CENTRAL DESERTS WITH LINGERING LIKELY
POPS ACROSS SRN GILA COUNTY. AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT WE EXPECT MAINLY
SINGLE DIGIT POPS ACROSS THE SWRN AZ DESERTS AS WELL AS SERN CA.
MODELS ARE CONSISTENT IN CALLING FOR THIS KICKER LOW TO DROP
SOUTHEAST TOWARDS THE NRN BAJA CA COAST TONIGHT...THEN SLOWLY DRIFT
EAST AND PASS BY ARIZONA TO THE SOUTH TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. AS THE
LOW PASSES BY...DYNAMICS OVER SRN AZ BECOME WEAK...BUT SIGNIFICANT
LOW/MID LEVEL MOISTURE REMAINS IN PLACE AND AS SUCH WE WILL CONTINUE
A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR INSTABILITY SHOWERS OVER SOUTH CENTRAL AZ
TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT. IN FACT...INSTABILITY LOOKS TO BE A BIT
BETTER ON TUESDAY WITH LI VALUES GOING WEAKLY NEGATIVE AND THUS WE
HAVE A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR THUNDER IN THE FORECAST ACROSS SOUTH
CENTRAL AZ ON TUESDAY. BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THE ONLY THREAT FOR
PRECIP WILL BE OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN EAST OF PHOENIX...AND SKIES
WILL BECOME MOSTLY SUNNY FROM PHOENIX WESTWARD INTO SERN CA. TEMPS
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY WILLS STEADILY WARM BUT WILL REMAIN BELOW
SEASONAL NORMALS.

ONE ISSUE WE WILL CONTEND WITH TONIGHT WILL BE FOG POTENTIAL ACROSS
SOUTH CENTRAL ARIZONA. MANY LOCATIONS WILL SEE AT LEAST MODERATE
RAINFALL TOTALS TODAY...AND HUMIDITY LEVELS WILL REMAIN HIGH
OVERNIGHT. HOWEVER...WE EXPECT LINGERING LOW/MID CLOUD DECKS TONIGHT
INTO TUESDAY...REDUCING RADIATIONAL COOLING POTENTIAL. ALSO...
FORECAST SOUNDINGS ARE NOT CLASSICAL FOG SOUNDINGS. WINDS WILL BE
LIGHT BUT SHOULD NOT BE CALM FOR EXTENDED PERIODS. THUS...THERE MAY
BE PATCHY FOG WITH VISIBILITY DOWN BELOW 5 MILES AT TIMES BUT WE DO
NOT EXPECT SIGNIFICANT DENSE FOG. AS A COMPROMISE WE ADDED PATCHY
FOG TO OUR FORECAST ZONES EAST OF THE LOWER CO RIVER TONIGHT.

FOR THURSDAY...A DRYING AND SUBSIDENT NORTHERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL SET
UP ACROSS THE AREA AS HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT STARTS TO BUILD ALONG THE
CA COAST. THIS WILL LEAD TO SUNNY SKIES...AND CONTINUED WARMING
WITH HIGH TEMPS REACHING INTO THE LOW TO MID 70S...AND TOWARDS
SEASONAL NORMALS.

FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND...
A WARMING TREND IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THIS PERIOD UNDER
MAINLY CLEAR SKIES AS HIGH PRESSURE STRENGTHENS OVER THE
REGION...WITH A DECENT CHANCE FOR HIGHS IN THE 80S ACROSS THE LOWER
DESERTS BY THE WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION...
SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA INCLUDING KPHX...KIWA AND KSDL...
A BROAD COOL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL REMAIN OVER THE AREA THROUGH
TUESDAY. VARIABLE AMOUNTS OF MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE A SLIGHT THREAT
OF SHOWERS THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING...ALONG WITH SCT-BKN CLOUDS BASED
BETWEEN 6-8 THSD AGL THROUGH 20Z TUE. LIGHT WIND.

SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA AND SOUTHWEST ARIZONA INCLUDING KIPL AND KBLH...
A BROAD COOL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL REMAIN OVER THE AREA THROUGH
TUESDAY. VARIABLE AMOUNTS OF MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE SCT-BKN CLOUDS
BASED 8-12 THSD AGL THROUGH 20Z TUE. LIGHT WIND.

AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDED TAFS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...
STRONG HIGH PRESSURE AND MUCH DRIER CONDITIONS WILL MOVE BACK INTO
THE DISTRICT DURING THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK. TEMPERATURES WILL
REBOUND BACK INTO A NORMAL TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL RANGE...WHILE
AFTERNOON HUMIDITY LEVELS RETURN INTO A 15 TO 25 PERCENT RANGE.
OVERNIGHT RECOVERY WILL BE GOOD. PERIODS OF GUSTY NORTH WINDS DOWN
THE COLORADO RIVER VALLEY WILL BE LIKELY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...WHILE
OCCASIONAL PERIODS OF STRONGER EASTERLY WINDS OVER RIDGE TOPS OF
CENTRAL ARIZONA MAY BE COMMON LATE IN THE WEEK.

&&

.PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

AZ...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH 8 PM TODAY AZZ022>024.

CA...NONE.

&&

$$

VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/PHOENIX

DISCUSSION...VASQUEZ/CB/PERCHA
AVIATION...VASQUEZ
FIRE WEATHER...MO










000
FXUS65 KPSR 030312
AFDPSR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PHOENIX AZ
810 PM MST MON MAR 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A RELATIVELY COOL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL LINGER OVER THE REGION
THROUGH WEDNESDAY...PRODUCING PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES AND BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES. A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS ARE ALSO FORECAST ACROSS
SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH CENTRAL ARIZONA THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING.
A RETURN TO ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES IS LIKELY BY THURSDAY...INTO
THE WEEKEND AS HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM BUILDS OVER THE DESERT
SOUTHWEST.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
AT 8 PM MST THE COLD FRONT HAD SHIFTED INTO EASTERN ARIZONA ALONG
WITH THE PRECIP BAND. IN THE WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT THIS EVENING A
FEW SHOWERS CONTINUED OVER PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST CA...SOUTHWEST AND
SOUTH CENTRAL AZ. THIS EVENINGS UPPER AIR DATA CONTINUED TO SHOW LOW
LEVEL SOUTHWEST WINDS STILL ENTRAINING BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE INTO
SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH CENTRAL AZ FROM THE BAJA REGION. THIS MOISTURE
COMBINED WITH A BROAD UPPER TROF THROUGH TUESDAY WILL CONTINUE A
MARGINAL THREAT OF SHOWERS. CLEARING WEDNESDAY.

VARIABLE AMOUNTS OF BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS
SHOULD PREVENT WIDESPREAD FOG FROM DEVELOPING OVER SOUTH CENTRAL
AZ...INCLUDING THE GREATER PHOENIX AREA TUESDAY MORNING. PATCHY AT
BEST.

MODIFICATIONS TO THIS EVENINGS FORECASTS WERE MADE EARLIER...
INCLUDING CANCELING THE FLOOD WATCH FOR SOUTH CENTRAL AZ. NO FURTHER
UPDATES NECESSARY THE REMAINDER OF TONIGHT.



.PORTIONS OF PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...333 PM MST...

A RATHER COMPLICATED UPPER TROF ALONG THE WEST COAST CONTINUED TO
AFFECT THE DESERT SOUTHWEST...INCLUDING SERN CA AND ARIZONA...EARLY
THIS AFTERNOON. UPPER LOW CENTER CONTINUED TO SPIN ALONG THE FAR
SERN CA COAST...WHILE THE MAIN COLD FRONTAL BAND PUSHED EAST AND
INTO EAST-CENTRAL ARIZONA AT 130 PM. FRONT WAS MOVING PAST CENTRAL
PHOENIX AND INTO SOUTHERN GILA COUNTY...BUT WIDESPREAD SHOWERS
CONTINUED ACROSS MOST OF MARICOPA COUNTY AS WELL AS SOUTHERN GILA
COUNTY. RADAR AND GAGE REPORTS INDICATED THAT MOST RAINFALL TOTALS
SINCE NOON WERE LESS THAN ONE THIRD OF AN INCH...AND IN FACT MOST OF
THE GAGES IN THE MARICOPA COUNTY FLOOD CONTROL DISTRICT NETWORK
MEASURED WELL BELOW ONE QUARTER INCH SINCE 1230 PM.

BY EARLY THIS EVENING...THE MAIN FOCUS OF THIS STORM SYSTEM...THE
FRONTAL BAND AND ASSOCIATED RAIN/RAIN SHOWER SHIELD...WILL PUSH EAST
AND INTO FAR EASTERN AZ AND NEW MEXICO. AT THE SAME TIME THE LOW
ALONG THE SERN CA COAST WILL WEAKEN AND BE MOVED INLAND AS A KICKER
LOW DROPS SOUTH ALONG THE CENTRAL CA COAST. AS SUCH THE CHANCES FOR
MEASURABLE PRECIP WILL DROP OFF SIGNIFICANTLY THIS EVENING...INTO
THE CHANCE CATEGORY OVER THE CENTRAL DESERTS WITH LINGERING LIKELY
POPS ACROSS SRN GILA COUNTY. AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT WE EXPECT MAINLY
SINGLE DIGIT POPS ACROSS THE SWRN AZ DESERTS AS WELL AS SERN CA.
MODELS ARE CONSISTENT IN CALLING FOR THIS KICKER LOW TO DROP
SOUTHEAST TOWARDS THE NRN BAJA CA COAST TONIGHT...THEN SLOWLY DRIFT
EAST AND PASS BY ARIZONA TO THE SOUTH TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. AS THE
LOW PASSES BY...DYNAMICS OVER SRN AZ BECOME WEAK...BUT SIGNIFICANT
LOW/MID LEVEL MOISTURE REMAINS IN PLACE AND AS SUCH WE WILL CONTINUE
A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR INSTABILITY SHOWERS OVER SOUTH CENTRAL AZ
TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT. IN FACT...INSTABILITY LOOKS TO BE A BIT
BETTER ON TUESDAY WITH LI VALUES GOING WEAKLY NEGATIVE AND THUS WE
HAVE A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR THUNDER IN THE FORECAST ACROSS SOUTH
CENTRAL AZ ON TUESDAY. BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THE ONLY THREAT FOR
PRECIP WILL BE OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN EAST OF PHOENIX...AND SKIES
WILL BECOME MOSTLY SUNNY FROM PHOENIX WESTWARD INTO SERN CA. TEMPS
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY WILLS STEADILY WARM BUT WILL REMAIN BELOW
SEASONAL NORMALS.

ONE ISSUE WE WILL CONTEND WITH TONIGHT WILL BE FOG POTENTIAL ACROSS
SOUTH CENTRAL ARIZONA. MANY LOCATIONS WILL SEE AT LEAST MODERATE
RAINFALL TOTALS TODAY...AND HUMIDITY LEVELS WILL REMAIN HIGH
OVERNIGHT. HOWEVER...WE EXPECT LINGERING LOW/MID CLOUD DECKS TONIGHT
INTO TUESDAY...REDUCING RADIATIONAL COOLING POTENTIAL. ALSO...
FORECAST SOUNDINGS ARE NOT CLASSICAL FOG SOUNDINGS. WINDS WILL BE
LIGHT BUT SHOULD NOT BE CALM FOR EXTENDED PERIODS. THUS...THERE MAY
BE PATCHY FOG WITH VISIBILITY DOWN BELOW 5 MILES AT TIMES BUT WE DO
NOT EXPECT SIGNIFICANT DENSE FOG. AS A COMPROMISE WE ADDED PATCHY
FOG TO OUR FORECAST ZONES EAST OF THE LOWER CO RIVER TONIGHT.

FOR THURSDAY...A DRYING AND SUBSIDENT NORTHERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL SET
UP ACROSS THE AREA AS HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT STARTS TO BUILD ALONG THE
CA COAST. THIS WILL LEAD TO SUNNY SKIES...AND CONTINUED WARMING
WITH HIGH TEMPS REACHING INTO THE LOW TO MID 70S...AND TOWARDS
SEASONAL NORMALS.

FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND...
A WARMING TREND IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THIS PERIOD UNDER
MAINLY CLEAR SKIES AS HIGH PRESSURE STRENGTHENS OVER THE
REGION...WITH A DECENT CHANCE FOR HIGHS IN THE 80S ACROSS THE LOWER
DESERTS BY THE WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION...
SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA INCLUDING KPHX...KIWA AND KSDL...
A BROAD COOL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL REMAIN OVER THE AREA THROUGH
TUESDAY. VARIABLE AMOUNTS OF MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE A SLIGHT THREAT
OF SHOWERS THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING...ALONG WITH SCT-BKN CLOUDS BASED
BETWEEN 6-8 THSD AGL THROUGH 20Z TUE. LIGHT WIND.

SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA AND SOUTHWEST ARIZONA INCLUDING KIPL AND KBLH...
A BROAD COOL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL REMAIN OVER THE AREA THROUGH
TUESDAY. VARIABLE AMOUNTS OF MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE SCT-BKN CLOUDS
BASED 8-12 THSD AGL THROUGH 20Z TUE. LIGHT WIND.

AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDED TAFS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...
STRONG HIGH PRESSURE AND MUCH DRIER CONDITIONS WILL MOVE BACK INTO
THE DISTRICT DURING THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK. TEMPERATURES WILL
REBOUND BACK INTO A NORMAL TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL RANGE...WHILE
AFTERNOON HUMIDITY LEVELS RETURN INTO A 15 TO 25 PERCENT RANGE.
OVERNIGHT RECOVERY WILL BE GOOD. PERIODS OF GUSTY NORTH WINDS DOWN
THE COLORADO RIVER VALLEY WILL BE LIKELY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...WHILE
OCCASIONAL PERIODS OF STRONGER EASTERLY WINDS OVER RIDGE TOPS OF
CENTRAL ARIZONA MAY BE COMMON LATE IN THE WEEK.

&&

.PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

AZ...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH 8 PM TODAY AZZ022>024.

CA...NONE.

&&

$$

VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/PHOENIX

DISCUSSION...VASQUEZ/CB/PERCHA
AVIATION...VASQUEZ
FIRE WEATHER...MO










000
FXUS65 KPSR 030312
AFDPSR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PHOENIX AZ
810 PM MST MON MAR 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A RELATIVELY COOL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL LINGER OVER THE REGION
THROUGH WEDNESDAY...PRODUCING PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES AND BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES. A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS ARE ALSO FORECAST ACROSS
SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH CENTRAL ARIZONA THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING.
A RETURN TO ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES IS LIKELY BY THURSDAY...INTO
THE WEEKEND AS HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM BUILDS OVER THE DESERT
SOUTHWEST.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
AT 8 PM MST THE COLD FRONT HAD SHIFTED INTO EASTERN ARIZONA ALONG
WITH THE PRECIP BAND. IN THE WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT THIS EVENING A
FEW SHOWERS CONTINUED OVER PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST CA...SOUTHWEST AND
SOUTH CENTRAL AZ. THIS EVENINGS UPPER AIR DATA CONTINUED TO SHOW LOW
LEVEL SOUTHWEST WINDS STILL ENTRAINING BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE INTO
SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH CENTRAL AZ FROM THE BAJA REGION. THIS MOISTURE
COMBINED WITH A BROAD UPPER TROF THROUGH TUESDAY WILL CONTINUE A
MARGINAL THREAT OF SHOWERS. CLEARING WEDNESDAY.

VARIABLE AMOUNTS OF BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS
SHOULD PREVENT WIDESPREAD FOG FROM DEVELOPING OVER SOUTH CENTRAL
AZ...INCLUDING THE GREATER PHOENIX AREA TUESDAY MORNING. PATCHY AT
BEST.

MODIFICATIONS TO THIS EVENINGS FORECASTS WERE MADE EARLIER...
INCLUDING CANCELING THE FLOOD WATCH FOR SOUTH CENTRAL AZ. NO FURTHER
UPDATES NECESSARY THE REMAINDER OF TONIGHT.



.PORTIONS OF PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...333 PM MST...

A RATHER COMPLICATED UPPER TROF ALONG THE WEST COAST CONTINUED TO
AFFECT THE DESERT SOUTHWEST...INCLUDING SERN CA AND ARIZONA...EARLY
THIS AFTERNOON. UPPER LOW CENTER CONTINUED TO SPIN ALONG THE FAR
SERN CA COAST...WHILE THE MAIN COLD FRONTAL BAND PUSHED EAST AND
INTO EAST-CENTRAL ARIZONA AT 130 PM. FRONT WAS MOVING PAST CENTRAL
PHOENIX AND INTO SOUTHERN GILA COUNTY...BUT WIDESPREAD SHOWERS
CONTINUED ACROSS MOST OF MARICOPA COUNTY AS WELL AS SOUTHERN GILA
COUNTY. RADAR AND GAGE REPORTS INDICATED THAT MOST RAINFALL TOTALS
SINCE NOON WERE LESS THAN ONE THIRD OF AN INCH...AND IN FACT MOST OF
THE GAGES IN THE MARICOPA COUNTY FLOOD CONTROL DISTRICT NETWORK
MEASURED WELL BELOW ONE QUARTER INCH SINCE 1230 PM.

BY EARLY THIS EVENING...THE MAIN FOCUS OF THIS STORM SYSTEM...THE
FRONTAL BAND AND ASSOCIATED RAIN/RAIN SHOWER SHIELD...WILL PUSH EAST
AND INTO FAR EASTERN AZ AND NEW MEXICO. AT THE SAME TIME THE LOW
ALONG THE SERN CA COAST WILL WEAKEN AND BE MOVED INLAND AS A KICKER
LOW DROPS SOUTH ALONG THE CENTRAL CA COAST. AS SUCH THE CHANCES FOR
MEASURABLE PRECIP WILL DROP OFF SIGNIFICANTLY THIS EVENING...INTO
THE CHANCE CATEGORY OVER THE CENTRAL DESERTS WITH LINGERING LIKELY
POPS ACROSS SRN GILA COUNTY. AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT WE EXPECT MAINLY
SINGLE DIGIT POPS ACROSS THE SWRN AZ DESERTS AS WELL AS SERN CA.
MODELS ARE CONSISTENT IN CALLING FOR THIS KICKER LOW TO DROP
SOUTHEAST TOWARDS THE NRN BAJA CA COAST TONIGHT...THEN SLOWLY DRIFT
EAST AND PASS BY ARIZONA TO THE SOUTH TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. AS THE
LOW PASSES BY...DYNAMICS OVER SRN AZ BECOME WEAK...BUT SIGNIFICANT
LOW/MID LEVEL MOISTURE REMAINS IN PLACE AND AS SUCH WE WILL CONTINUE
A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR INSTABILITY SHOWERS OVER SOUTH CENTRAL AZ
TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT. IN FACT...INSTABILITY LOOKS TO BE A BIT
BETTER ON TUESDAY WITH LI VALUES GOING WEAKLY NEGATIVE AND THUS WE
HAVE A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR THUNDER IN THE FORECAST ACROSS SOUTH
CENTRAL AZ ON TUESDAY. BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THE ONLY THREAT FOR
PRECIP WILL BE OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN EAST OF PHOENIX...AND SKIES
WILL BECOME MOSTLY SUNNY FROM PHOENIX WESTWARD INTO SERN CA. TEMPS
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY WILLS STEADILY WARM BUT WILL REMAIN BELOW
SEASONAL NORMALS.

ONE ISSUE WE WILL CONTEND WITH TONIGHT WILL BE FOG POTENTIAL ACROSS
SOUTH CENTRAL ARIZONA. MANY LOCATIONS WILL SEE AT LEAST MODERATE
RAINFALL TOTALS TODAY...AND HUMIDITY LEVELS WILL REMAIN HIGH
OVERNIGHT. HOWEVER...WE EXPECT LINGERING LOW/MID CLOUD DECKS TONIGHT
INTO TUESDAY...REDUCING RADIATIONAL COOLING POTENTIAL. ALSO...
FORECAST SOUNDINGS ARE NOT CLASSICAL FOG SOUNDINGS. WINDS WILL BE
LIGHT BUT SHOULD NOT BE CALM FOR EXTENDED PERIODS. THUS...THERE MAY
BE PATCHY FOG WITH VISIBILITY DOWN BELOW 5 MILES AT TIMES BUT WE DO
NOT EXPECT SIGNIFICANT DENSE FOG. AS A COMPROMISE WE ADDED PATCHY
FOG TO OUR FORECAST ZONES EAST OF THE LOWER CO RIVER TONIGHT.

FOR THURSDAY...A DRYING AND SUBSIDENT NORTHERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL SET
UP ACROSS THE AREA AS HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT STARTS TO BUILD ALONG THE
CA COAST. THIS WILL LEAD TO SUNNY SKIES...AND CONTINUED WARMING
WITH HIGH TEMPS REACHING INTO THE LOW TO MID 70S...AND TOWARDS
SEASONAL NORMALS.

FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND...
A WARMING TREND IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THIS PERIOD UNDER
MAINLY CLEAR SKIES AS HIGH PRESSURE STRENGTHENS OVER THE
REGION...WITH A DECENT CHANCE FOR HIGHS IN THE 80S ACROSS THE LOWER
DESERTS BY THE WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION...
SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA INCLUDING KPHX...KIWA AND KSDL...
A BROAD COOL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL REMAIN OVER THE AREA THROUGH
TUESDAY. VARIABLE AMOUNTS OF MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE A SLIGHT THREAT
OF SHOWERS THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING...ALONG WITH SCT-BKN CLOUDS BASED
BETWEEN 6-8 THSD AGL THROUGH 20Z TUE. LIGHT WIND.

SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA AND SOUTHWEST ARIZONA INCLUDING KIPL AND KBLH...
A BROAD COOL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL REMAIN OVER THE AREA THROUGH
TUESDAY. VARIABLE AMOUNTS OF MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE SCT-BKN CLOUDS
BASED 8-12 THSD AGL THROUGH 20Z TUE. LIGHT WIND.

AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDED TAFS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...
STRONG HIGH PRESSURE AND MUCH DRIER CONDITIONS WILL MOVE BACK INTO
THE DISTRICT DURING THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK. TEMPERATURES WILL
REBOUND BACK INTO A NORMAL TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL RANGE...WHILE
AFTERNOON HUMIDITY LEVELS RETURN INTO A 15 TO 25 PERCENT RANGE.
OVERNIGHT RECOVERY WILL BE GOOD. PERIODS OF GUSTY NORTH WINDS DOWN
THE COLORADO RIVER VALLEY WILL BE LIKELY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...WHILE
OCCASIONAL PERIODS OF STRONGER EASTERLY WINDS OVER RIDGE TOPS OF
CENTRAL ARIZONA MAY BE COMMON LATE IN THE WEEK.

&&

.PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

AZ...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH 8 PM TODAY AZZ022>024.

CA...NONE.

&&

$$

VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/PHOENIX

DISCUSSION...VASQUEZ/CB/PERCHA
AVIATION...VASQUEZ
FIRE WEATHER...MO











000
FXUS65 KPSR 030312
AFDPSR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PHOENIX AZ
810 PM MST MON MAR 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A RELATIVELY COOL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL LINGER OVER THE REGION
THROUGH WEDNESDAY...PRODUCING PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES AND BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES. A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS ARE ALSO FORECAST ACROSS
SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH CENTRAL ARIZONA THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING.
A RETURN TO ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES IS LIKELY BY THURSDAY...INTO
THE WEEKEND AS HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM BUILDS OVER THE DESERT
SOUTHWEST.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
AT 8 PM MST THE COLD FRONT HAD SHIFTED INTO EASTERN ARIZONA ALONG
WITH THE PRECIP BAND. IN THE WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT THIS EVENING A
FEW SHOWERS CONTINUED OVER PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST CA...SOUTHWEST AND
SOUTH CENTRAL AZ. THIS EVENINGS UPPER AIR DATA CONTINUED TO SHOW LOW
LEVEL SOUTHWEST WINDS STILL ENTRAINING BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE INTO
SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH CENTRAL AZ FROM THE BAJA REGION. THIS MOISTURE
COMBINED WITH A BROAD UPPER TROF THROUGH TUESDAY WILL CONTINUE A
MARGINAL THREAT OF SHOWERS. CLEARING WEDNESDAY.

VARIABLE AMOUNTS OF BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS
SHOULD PREVENT WIDESPREAD FOG FROM DEVELOPING OVER SOUTH CENTRAL
AZ...INCLUDING THE GREATER PHOENIX AREA TUESDAY MORNING. PATCHY AT
BEST.

MODIFICATIONS TO THIS EVENINGS FORECASTS WERE MADE EARLIER...
INCLUDING CANCELING THE FLOOD WATCH FOR SOUTH CENTRAL AZ. NO FURTHER
UPDATES NECESSARY THE REMAINDER OF TONIGHT.



.PORTIONS OF PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...333 PM MST...

A RATHER COMPLICATED UPPER TROF ALONG THE WEST COAST CONTINUED TO
AFFECT THE DESERT SOUTHWEST...INCLUDING SERN CA AND ARIZONA...EARLY
THIS AFTERNOON. UPPER LOW CENTER CONTINUED TO SPIN ALONG THE FAR
SERN CA COAST...WHILE THE MAIN COLD FRONTAL BAND PUSHED EAST AND
INTO EAST-CENTRAL ARIZONA AT 130 PM. FRONT WAS MOVING PAST CENTRAL
PHOENIX AND INTO SOUTHERN GILA COUNTY...BUT WIDESPREAD SHOWERS
CONTINUED ACROSS MOST OF MARICOPA COUNTY AS WELL AS SOUTHERN GILA
COUNTY. RADAR AND GAGE REPORTS INDICATED THAT MOST RAINFALL TOTALS
SINCE NOON WERE LESS THAN ONE THIRD OF AN INCH...AND IN FACT MOST OF
THE GAGES IN THE MARICOPA COUNTY FLOOD CONTROL DISTRICT NETWORK
MEASURED WELL BELOW ONE QUARTER INCH SINCE 1230 PM.

BY EARLY THIS EVENING...THE MAIN FOCUS OF THIS STORM SYSTEM...THE
FRONTAL BAND AND ASSOCIATED RAIN/RAIN SHOWER SHIELD...WILL PUSH EAST
AND INTO FAR EASTERN AZ AND NEW MEXICO. AT THE SAME TIME THE LOW
ALONG THE SERN CA COAST WILL WEAKEN AND BE MOVED INLAND AS A KICKER
LOW DROPS SOUTH ALONG THE CENTRAL CA COAST. AS SUCH THE CHANCES FOR
MEASURABLE PRECIP WILL DROP OFF SIGNIFICANTLY THIS EVENING...INTO
THE CHANCE CATEGORY OVER THE CENTRAL DESERTS WITH LINGERING LIKELY
POPS ACROSS SRN GILA COUNTY. AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT WE EXPECT MAINLY
SINGLE DIGIT POPS ACROSS THE SWRN AZ DESERTS AS WELL AS SERN CA.
MODELS ARE CONSISTENT IN CALLING FOR THIS KICKER LOW TO DROP
SOUTHEAST TOWARDS THE NRN BAJA CA COAST TONIGHT...THEN SLOWLY DRIFT
EAST AND PASS BY ARIZONA TO THE SOUTH TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. AS THE
LOW PASSES BY...DYNAMICS OVER SRN AZ BECOME WEAK...BUT SIGNIFICANT
LOW/MID LEVEL MOISTURE REMAINS IN PLACE AND AS SUCH WE WILL CONTINUE
A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR INSTABILITY SHOWERS OVER SOUTH CENTRAL AZ
TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT. IN FACT...INSTABILITY LOOKS TO BE A BIT
BETTER ON TUESDAY WITH LI VALUES GOING WEAKLY NEGATIVE AND THUS WE
HAVE A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR THUNDER IN THE FORECAST ACROSS SOUTH
CENTRAL AZ ON TUESDAY. BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THE ONLY THREAT FOR
PRECIP WILL BE OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN EAST OF PHOENIX...AND SKIES
WILL BECOME MOSTLY SUNNY FROM PHOENIX WESTWARD INTO SERN CA. TEMPS
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY WILLS STEADILY WARM BUT WILL REMAIN BELOW
SEASONAL NORMALS.

ONE ISSUE WE WILL CONTEND WITH TONIGHT WILL BE FOG POTENTIAL ACROSS
SOUTH CENTRAL ARIZONA. MANY LOCATIONS WILL SEE AT LEAST MODERATE
RAINFALL TOTALS TODAY...AND HUMIDITY LEVELS WILL REMAIN HIGH
OVERNIGHT. HOWEVER...WE EXPECT LINGERING LOW/MID CLOUD DECKS TONIGHT
INTO TUESDAY...REDUCING RADIATIONAL COOLING POTENTIAL. ALSO...
FORECAST SOUNDINGS ARE NOT CLASSICAL FOG SOUNDINGS. WINDS WILL BE
LIGHT BUT SHOULD NOT BE CALM FOR EXTENDED PERIODS. THUS...THERE MAY
BE PATCHY FOG WITH VISIBILITY DOWN BELOW 5 MILES AT TIMES BUT WE DO
NOT EXPECT SIGNIFICANT DENSE FOG. AS A COMPROMISE WE ADDED PATCHY
FOG TO OUR FORECAST ZONES EAST OF THE LOWER CO RIVER TONIGHT.

FOR THURSDAY...A DRYING AND SUBSIDENT NORTHERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL SET
UP ACROSS THE AREA AS HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT STARTS TO BUILD ALONG THE
CA COAST. THIS WILL LEAD TO SUNNY SKIES...AND CONTINUED WARMING
WITH HIGH TEMPS REACHING INTO THE LOW TO MID 70S...AND TOWARDS
SEASONAL NORMALS.

FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND...
A WARMING TREND IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THIS PERIOD UNDER
MAINLY CLEAR SKIES AS HIGH PRESSURE STRENGTHENS OVER THE
REGION...WITH A DECENT CHANCE FOR HIGHS IN THE 80S ACROSS THE LOWER
DESERTS BY THE WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION...
SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA INCLUDING KPHX...KIWA AND KSDL...
A BROAD COOL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL REMAIN OVER THE AREA THROUGH
TUESDAY. VARIABLE AMOUNTS OF MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE A SLIGHT THREAT
OF SHOWERS THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING...ALONG WITH SCT-BKN CLOUDS BASED
BETWEEN 6-8 THSD AGL THROUGH 20Z TUE. LIGHT WIND.

SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA AND SOUTHWEST ARIZONA INCLUDING KIPL AND KBLH...
A BROAD COOL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL REMAIN OVER THE AREA THROUGH
TUESDAY. VARIABLE AMOUNTS OF MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE SCT-BKN CLOUDS
BASED 8-12 THSD AGL THROUGH 20Z TUE. LIGHT WIND.

AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDED TAFS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...
STRONG HIGH PRESSURE AND MUCH DRIER CONDITIONS WILL MOVE BACK INTO
THE DISTRICT DURING THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK. TEMPERATURES WILL
REBOUND BACK INTO A NORMAL TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL RANGE...WHILE
AFTERNOON HUMIDITY LEVELS RETURN INTO A 15 TO 25 PERCENT RANGE.
OVERNIGHT RECOVERY WILL BE GOOD. PERIODS OF GUSTY NORTH WINDS DOWN
THE COLORADO RIVER VALLEY WILL BE LIKELY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...WHILE
OCCASIONAL PERIODS OF STRONGER EASTERLY WINDS OVER RIDGE TOPS OF
CENTRAL ARIZONA MAY BE COMMON LATE IN THE WEEK.

&&

.PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

AZ...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH 8 PM TODAY AZZ022>024.

CA...NONE.

&&

$$

VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/PHOENIX

DISCUSSION...VASQUEZ/CB/PERCHA
AVIATION...VASQUEZ
FIRE WEATHER...MO










000
FXUS65 KPSR 022235
AFDPSR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PHOENIX AZ
333 PM MST MON MAR 2 2015

.UPDATE...TO AVIATION DISCUSSION...

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION WILL CONTINUE TO SHIFT EASTWARD THIS
AFTERNOON AND INTO THE EVENING HOURS TONIGHT. PERIODS OF MODERATE TO
HEAVY RAIN ARE ANTICIPATED ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL ARIZONA...ESPECIALLY
OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN AND FOOTHILL LOCATIONS NORTH AND EAST OF
CENTRAL PHOENIX. THERE WILL ALSO BE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS
AS WELL THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. THERE WILL ALSO BE A
LINGERING SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS OVER SOUTH CENTRAL ARIZONA
TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY AS THE SYSTEM SLOWLY EXITS TO THE EAST.
COOLER TEMPERATURES WILL ACCOMPANY THIS SYSTEM WITH BELOW NORMAL
READINGS EXPECTED THROUGH MID WEEK. A RETURN TO ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES IS LIKELY BY THURSDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE
DESERT SOUTHWEST.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
A RATHER COMPLICATED UPPER TROF ALONG THE WEST COAST CONTINUED TO
AFFECT THE DESERT SOUTHWEST...INCLUDING SERN CA AND ARIZONA...EARLY
THIS AFTERNOON. UPPER LOW CENTER CONTINUED TO SPIN ALONG THE FAR
SERN CA COAST...WHILE THE MAIN COLD FRONTAL BAND PUSHED EAST AND
INTO EAST-CENTRAL ARIZONA AT 130 PM. FRONT WAS MOVING PAST CENTRAL
PHOENIX AND INTO SOUTHERN GILA COUNTY...BUT WIDESPREAD SHOWERS
CONTINUED ACROSS MOST OF MARICOPA COUNTY AS WELL AS SOUTHERN GILA
COUNTY. RADAR AND GAGE REPORTS INDICATED THAT MOST RAINFALL TOTALS
SINCE NOON WERE LESS THAN ONE THIRD OF AN INCH...AND IN FACT MOST OF
THE GAGES IN THE MARICOPA COUNTY FLOOD CONTROL DISTRICT NETWORK
MEASURED WELL BELOW ONE QUARTER INCH SINCE 1230 PM. SO FAR WE HAVE
NOT SEEN THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT ACROSS THE CENTRAL DESERTS...BUT
AN ISOLATED STORM IS POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON AND INTO THE EARLY
EVENING...AND ANY STORM THAT FORMS WILL LEAD TO LOCALLY MODERATE OR
HEAVY RAINFALL. AS A RESULT...WE WILL CONTINUE THE FLOOD WATCH FOR
MARICOPA COUNTY EASTWARD...AND WE HAVE DROPPED THE WATCH FOR ALL
AREAS WEST OF MARICOPA COUNTY.

FOR THE REST OF THIS AFTERNOON...WE MAY SEE A FEW SHOWERS OR EVEN A
THUNDERSTORM REDEVELOP OVER PORTIONS OF SERN AZ AS CONVECTION SPILLS
OVER THE COASTAL RANGES...AND MOVES INLAND AND AHEAD OF THE
WEAKENING UPPER LOW ALONG THE FAR SERN CA COAST. WE DO NOT EXPECT
SIGNIFICANT PRECIP WITH ANY SHOWERS/STORMS THAT MOVE THROUGH SERN CA
HOWEVER...BUT SOME SPOTS COULD SEE AMOUNTS IN EXCESS OF ONE QUARTER
INCH.

BY EARLY THIS EVENING...THE MAIN FOCUS OF THIS STORM SYSTEM...THE
FRONTAL BAND AND ASSOCIATED RAIN/RAIN SHOWER SHIELD...WILL PUSH EAST
AND INTO FAR EASTERN AZ AND NEW MEXICO. AT THE SAME TIME THE LOW
ALONG THE SERN CA COAST WILL WEAKEN AND BE MOVED INLAND AS A KICKER
LOW DROPS SOUTH ALONG THE CENTRAL CA COAST. AS SUCH THE CHANCES FOR
MEASURABLE PRECIP WILL DROP OFF SIGNIFICANTLY THIS EVENING...INTO
THE CHANCE CATEGORY OVER THE CENTRAL DESERTS WITH LINGERING LIKELY
POPS ACROSS SRN GILA COUNTY. AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT WE EXPECT MAINLY
SINGLE DIGIT POPS ACROSS THE SWRN AZ DESERTS AS WELL AS SERN CA.
MODELS ARE CONSISTENT IN CALLING FOR THIS KICKER LOW TO DROP
SOUTHEAST TOWARDS THE NRN BAJA CA COAST TONIGHT...THEN SLOWLY DRIFT
EAST AND PASS BY ARIZONA TO THE SOUTH TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. AS THE
LOW PASSES BY...DYNAMICS OVER SRN AZ BECOME WEAK...BUT SIGNIFICANT
LOW/MID LEVEL MOISTURE REMAINS IN PLACE AND AS SUCH WE WILL CONTINUE
A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR INSTABILITY SHOWERS OVER SOUTH CENTRAL AZ
TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT. IN FACT...INSTABILITY LOOKS TO BE A BIT
BETTER ON TUESDAY WITH LI VALUES GOING WEAKLY NEGATIVE AND THUS WE
HAVE A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR THUNDER IN THE FORECAST ACROSS SOUTH
CENTRAL AZ ON TUESDAY. BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THE ONLY THREAT FOR
PRECIP WILL BE OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN EAST OF PHOENIX...AND SKIES
WILL BECOME MOSTLY SUNNY FROM PHOENIX WESTWARD INTO SERN CA. TEMPS
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY WILLS STEADILY WARM BUT WILL REMAIN BELOW
SEASONAL NORMALS.

ONE ISSUE WE WILL CONTEND WITH TONIGHT WILL BE FOG POTENTIAL ACROSS
SOUTH CENTRAL ARIZONA. MANY LOCATIONS WILL SEE AT LEAST MODERATE
RAINFALL TOTALS TODAY...AND HUMIDITY LEVELS WILL REMAIN HIGH
OVERNIGHT. HOWEVER...WE EXPECT LINGERING LOW/MID CLOUD DECKS TONIGHT
INTO TUESDAY...REDUCING RADIATIONAL COOLING POTENTIAL. ALSO...
FORECAST SOUNDINGS ARE NOT CLASSICAL FOG SOUNDINGS. WINDS WILL BE
LIGHT BUT SHOULD NOT BE CALM FOR EXTENDED PERIODS. THUS...THERE MAY
BE PATCHY FOG WITH VISIBILITY DOWN BELOW 5 MILES AT TIMES BUT WE DO
NOT EXPECT SIGNIFICANT DENSE FOG. AS A COMPROMISE WE ADDED PATCHY
FOG TO OUR FORECAST ZONES EAST OF THE LOWER CO RIVER TONIGHT.

FOR THURSDAY...A DRYING AND SUBSIDENT NORTHERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL SET
UP ACROSS THE AREA AS HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT STARTS TO BUILD ALONG THE
CA COAST. THIS WILL LEAD TO SUNNY SKIES...AND CONTINUED WARMING
WITH HIGH TEMPS REACHING INTO THE LOW TO MID 70S...AND TOWARDS
SEASONAL NORMALS.

FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND...
A WARMING TREND IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THIS PERIOD UNDER
MAINLY CLEAR SKIES AS HIGH PRESSURE STRENGTHENS OVER THE
REGION...WITH A DECENT CHANCE FOR HIGHS IN THE 80S ACROSS THE LOWER
DESERTS BY THE WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION...
SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA INCLUDING KPHX...KIWA AND KSDL...
MAIN RAIN SHOWER BAND REMAINS OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE PHX
METRO...WITH -SHRA/VCSH TO CONTINUE FOR KPHX...KIWA AND KSDL OVER
THE NEXT FEW HOURS. RAIN WILL CONTINUE TO TRANSITION EAST OF THE
AREA...WITH SHOWER CLEARING ALREADY NOTED ACROSS THE WESTERN
PORTIONS OF THE PHX METRO. WINDS TO GNLY HOLD POST-FRONTAL WEST TO
NORTHWEST HEADINGS WITH ELEVATED SPEEDS OF 10KTS AT LEAST...WITH
BRIEF PERIODS OF CALMER SPEEDS...UNDER 5KTS. MVFR CIGS REMAIN OVER
WESTERN MARICOPA COUNTY...DESPITE SHOWER ACTIVITY ENDING OVER THAT
AREA. CONFIDENCE IS MEDIUM IN PERIODS OF MVFR CIGS TO LINGER INTO
THE EVENING...BEFORE GRADUALLY LIFTING TOWARDS THE 5-7KFT LEVEL.
COULD SEE SOME ADDITIONAL STRAY SHOWERS DEVELOP ACROSS THE METRO
LATER IN THE EVENING...IN SIMILAR FASHION TO THE PAST COUPLE
NIGHTS...WARRANTING VCSH FOR THE EARLY EVENING.

FORECAST THOUGHTS NATURALLY TEND TOWARDS THE POTENTIAL FOR FOG
DEVELOPMENT FOR THE PHX TERMINALS...AND CRITICALLY KPHX...FOR
TUESDAY AM. WITH THE CURRENT FORECAST GUIDANCE AND SATELLITE
TRENDS...FEEL THAT WIDESPREAD SIGNIFICANT FOG DEVELOPMENT IS NOT
ANTICIPATED. SOME PATCHY FOG MAY DEVELOP FOR SOME OF THE SATELLITE
AIRFIELDS...BUT WITHIN THE PHX METRO DO NOT FEEL IFR/LIFR VSBYS WILL
BE REALIZED AT THE TERMINALS. FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE SOME MID
LEVEL CLOUDS HELPING TO INSULATE OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES...WHICH MAY
RESULT IN SOME STRATUS LAYERS ALONG NEARBY TERRAIN AND IN THE
VICINITY OF THE AIRFIELDS.

SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA AND SOUTHWEST ARIZONA INCLUDING KIPL AND KBLH...
INSTABILITY SHOWER AND ISOLATED THUNDER WILL CONTINUE ACROSS
SOUTHEAST CA IN RESPONSE TO THE ADVANCING UPPER LOW THROUGH THE
EARLY EVENING. ELEVATED WEST TO SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL ALSO PERSIST
INTO THE EVENING...WITH GUSTS UPWARDS OF 20KTS. AFTER 03/03Z OR
SO...SOME STRAY SHOWERS MAY LINGER BUT FEEL THE BULK OF THE PRECIP
ACTIVITY WILL BE WRAPPED. FEW-SCT CLOUDS 10KFT OR HIGHER MAY DRIFT
ACROSS THE AREA ALONG WITH DRIER AIR MOVING IN FROM THE WEST. THE
ADVANCE OF DRIER AIR AT THE SURFACE SHOULD HOLD OFF ANY FOG
DEVELOPMENT FOR THE MORNING HOURS...SO ATTM DO NOT HAVE ANY MENTION
IN THE TAFS.

AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDED TAFS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...
STRONG HIGH PRESSURE AND MUCH DRIER CONDITIONS WILL MOVE BACK INTO
THE DISTRICT DURING THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK. TEMPERATURES WILL
REBOUND BACK INTO A NORMAL TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL RANGE...WHILE
AFTERNOON HUMIDITY LEVELS RETURN INTO A 15 TO 25 PERCENT RANGE.
OVERNIGHT RECOVERY WILL BE GOOD. PERIODS OF GUSTY NORTH WINDS DOWN
THE COLORADO RIVER VALLEY WILL BE LIKELY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...WHILE
OCCASIONAL PERIODS OF STRONGER EASTERLY WINDS OVER RIDGE TOPS OF
CENTRAL ARIZONA MAY BE COMMON LATE IN THE WEEK.

&&

.PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

AZ...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH 8 PM TODAY AZZ022>024.

CA...NONE.

&&

$$

VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/PHOENIX

DISCUSSION...CB/PERCHA
AVIATION...NOLTE
FIRE WEATHER...MO







000
FXUS65 KPSR 022235
AFDPSR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PHOENIX AZ
333 PM MST MON MAR 2 2015

.UPDATE...TO AVIATION DISCUSSION...

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION WILL CONTINUE TO SHIFT EASTWARD THIS
AFTERNOON AND INTO THE EVENING HOURS TONIGHT. PERIODS OF MODERATE TO
HEAVY RAIN ARE ANTICIPATED ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL ARIZONA...ESPECIALLY
OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN AND FOOTHILL LOCATIONS NORTH AND EAST OF
CENTRAL PHOENIX. THERE WILL ALSO BE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS
AS WELL THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. THERE WILL ALSO BE A
LINGERING SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS OVER SOUTH CENTRAL ARIZONA
TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY AS THE SYSTEM SLOWLY EXITS TO THE EAST.
COOLER TEMPERATURES WILL ACCOMPANY THIS SYSTEM WITH BELOW NORMAL
READINGS EXPECTED THROUGH MID WEEK. A RETURN TO ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES IS LIKELY BY THURSDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE
DESERT SOUTHWEST.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
A RATHER COMPLICATED UPPER TROF ALONG THE WEST COAST CONTINUED TO
AFFECT THE DESERT SOUTHWEST...INCLUDING SERN CA AND ARIZONA...EARLY
THIS AFTERNOON. UPPER LOW CENTER CONTINUED TO SPIN ALONG THE FAR
SERN CA COAST...WHILE THE MAIN COLD FRONTAL BAND PUSHED EAST AND
INTO EAST-CENTRAL ARIZONA AT 130 PM. FRONT WAS MOVING PAST CENTRAL
PHOENIX AND INTO SOUTHERN GILA COUNTY...BUT WIDESPREAD SHOWERS
CONTINUED ACROSS MOST OF MARICOPA COUNTY AS WELL AS SOUTHERN GILA
COUNTY. RADAR AND GAGE REPORTS INDICATED THAT MOST RAINFALL TOTALS
SINCE NOON WERE LESS THAN ONE THIRD OF AN INCH...AND IN FACT MOST OF
THE GAGES IN THE MARICOPA COUNTY FLOOD CONTROL DISTRICT NETWORK
MEASURED WELL BELOW ONE QUARTER INCH SINCE 1230 PM. SO FAR WE HAVE
NOT SEEN THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT ACROSS THE CENTRAL DESERTS...BUT
AN ISOLATED STORM IS POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON AND INTO THE EARLY
EVENING...AND ANY STORM THAT FORMS WILL LEAD TO LOCALLY MODERATE OR
HEAVY RAINFALL. AS A RESULT...WE WILL CONTINUE THE FLOOD WATCH FOR
MARICOPA COUNTY EASTWARD...AND WE HAVE DROPPED THE WATCH FOR ALL
AREAS WEST OF MARICOPA COUNTY.

FOR THE REST OF THIS AFTERNOON...WE MAY SEE A FEW SHOWERS OR EVEN A
THUNDERSTORM REDEVELOP OVER PORTIONS OF SERN AZ AS CONVECTION SPILLS
OVER THE COASTAL RANGES...AND MOVES INLAND AND AHEAD OF THE
WEAKENING UPPER LOW ALONG THE FAR SERN CA COAST. WE DO NOT EXPECT
SIGNIFICANT PRECIP WITH ANY SHOWERS/STORMS THAT MOVE THROUGH SERN CA
HOWEVER...BUT SOME SPOTS COULD SEE AMOUNTS IN EXCESS OF ONE QUARTER
INCH.

BY EARLY THIS EVENING...THE MAIN FOCUS OF THIS STORM SYSTEM...THE
FRONTAL BAND AND ASSOCIATED RAIN/RAIN SHOWER SHIELD...WILL PUSH EAST
AND INTO FAR EASTERN AZ AND NEW MEXICO. AT THE SAME TIME THE LOW
ALONG THE SERN CA COAST WILL WEAKEN AND BE MOVED INLAND AS A KICKER
LOW DROPS SOUTH ALONG THE CENTRAL CA COAST. AS SUCH THE CHANCES FOR
MEASURABLE PRECIP WILL DROP OFF SIGNIFICANTLY THIS EVENING...INTO
THE CHANCE CATEGORY OVER THE CENTRAL DESERTS WITH LINGERING LIKELY
POPS ACROSS SRN GILA COUNTY. AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT WE EXPECT MAINLY
SINGLE DIGIT POPS ACROSS THE SWRN AZ DESERTS AS WELL AS SERN CA.
MODELS ARE CONSISTENT IN CALLING FOR THIS KICKER LOW TO DROP
SOUTHEAST TOWARDS THE NRN BAJA CA COAST TONIGHT...THEN SLOWLY DRIFT
EAST AND PASS BY ARIZONA TO THE SOUTH TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. AS THE
LOW PASSES BY...DYNAMICS OVER SRN AZ BECOME WEAK...BUT SIGNIFICANT
LOW/MID LEVEL MOISTURE REMAINS IN PLACE AND AS SUCH WE WILL CONTINUE
A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR INSTABILITY SHOWERS OVER SOUTH CENTRAL AZ
TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT. IN FACT...INSTABILITY LOOKS TO BE A BIT
BETTER ON TUESDAY WITH LI VALUES GOING WEAKLY NEGATIVE AND THUS WE
HAVE A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR THUNDER IN THE FORECAST ACROSS SOUTH
CENTRAL AZ ON TUESDAY. BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THE ONLY THREAT FOR
PRECIP WILL BE OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN EAST OF PHOENIX...AND SKIES
WILL BECOME MOSTLY SUNNY FROM PHOENIX WESTWARD INTO SERN CA. TEMPS
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY WILLS STEADILY WARM BUT WILL REMAIN BELOW
SEASONAL NORMALS.

ONE ISSUE WE WILL CONTEND WITH TONIGHT WILL BE FOG POTENTIAL ACROSS
SOUTH CENTRAL ARIZONA. MANY LOCATIONS WILL SEE AT LEAST MODERATE
RAINFALL TOTALS TODAY...AND HUMIDITY LEVELS WILL REMAIN HIGH
OVERNIGHT. HOWEVER...WE EXPECT LINGERING LOW/MID CLOUD DECKS TONIGHT
INTO TUESDAY...REDUCING RADIATIONAL COOLING POTENTIAL. ALSO...
FORECAST SOUNDINGS ARE NOT CLASSICAL FOG SOUNDINGS. WINDS WILL BE
LIGHT BUT SHOULD NOT BE CALM FOR EXTENDED PERIODS. THUS...THERE MAY
BE PATCHY FOG WITH VISIBILITY DOWN BELOW 5 MILES AT TIMES BUT WE DO
NOT EXPECT SIGNIFICANT DENSE FOG. AS A COMPROMISE WE ADDED PATCHY
FOG TO OUR FORECAST ZONES EAST OF THE LOWER CO RIVER TONIGHT.

FOR THURSDAY...A DRYING AND SUBSIDENT NORTHERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL SET
UP ACROSS THE AREA AS HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT STARTS TO BUILD ALONG THE
CA COAST. THIS WILL LEAD TO SUNNY SKIES...AND CONTINUED WARMING
WITH HIGH TEMPS REACHING INTO THE LOW TO MID 70S...AND TOWARDS
SEASONAL NORMALS.

FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND...
A WARMING TREND IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THIS PERIOD UNDER
MAINLY CLEAR SKIES AS HIGH PRESSURE STRENGTHENS OVER THE
REGION...WITH A DECENT CHANCE FOR HIGHS IN THE 80S ACROSS THE LOWER
DESERTS BY THE WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION...
SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA INCLUDING KPHX...KIWA AND KSDL...
MAIN RAIN SHOWER BAND REMAINS OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE PHX
METRO...WITH -SHRA/VCSH TO CONTINUE FOR KPHX...KIWA AND KSDL OVER
THE NEXT FEW HOURS. RAIN WILL CONTINUE TO TRANSITION EAST OF THE
AREA...WITH SHOWER CLEARING ALREADY NOTED ACROSS THE WESTERN
PORTIONS OF THE PHX METRO. WINDS TO GNLY HOLD POST-FRONTAL WEST TO
NORTHWEST HEADINGS WITH ELEVATED SPEEDS OF 10KTS AT LEAST...WITH
BRIEF PERIODS OF CALMER SPEEDS...UNDER 5KTS. MVFR CIGS REMAIN OVER
WESTERN MARICOPA COUNTY...DESPITE SHOWER ACTIVITY ENDING OVER THAT
AREA. CONFIDENCE IS MEDIUM IN PERIODS OF MVFR CIGS TO LINGER INTO
THE EVENING...BEFORE GRADUALLY LIFTING TOWARDS THE 5-7KFT LEVEL.
COULD SEE SOME ADDITIONAL STRAY SHOWERS DEVELOP ACROSS THE METRO
LATER IN THE EVENING...IN SIMILAR FASHION TO THE PAST COUPLE
NIGHTS...WARRANTING VCSH FOR THE EARLY EVENING.

FORECAST THOUGHTS NATURALLY TEND TOWARDS THE POTENTIAL FOR FOG
DEVELOPMENT FOR THE PHX TERMINALS...AND CRITICALLY KPHX...FOR
TUESDAY AM. WITH THE CURRENT FORECAST GUIDANCE AND SATELLITE
TRENDS...FEEL THAT WIDESPREAD SIGNIFICANT FOG DEVELOPMENT IS NOT
ANTICIPATED. SOME PATCHY FOG MAY DEVELOP FOR SOME OF THE SATELLITE
AIRFIELDS...BUT WITHIN THE PHX METRO DO NOT FEEL IFR/LIFR VSBYS WILL
BE REALIZED AT THE TERMINALS. FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE SOME MID
LEVEL CLOUDS HELPING TO INSULATE OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES...WHICH MAY
RESULT IN SOME STRATUS LAYERS ALONG NEARBY TERRAIN AND IN THE
VICINITY OF THE AIRFIELDS.

SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA AND SOUTHWEST ARIZONA INCLUDING KIPL AND KBLH...
INSTABILITY SHOWER AND ISOLATED THUNDER WILL CONTINUE ACROSS
SOUTHEAST CA IN RESPONSE TO THE ADVANCING UPPER LOW THROUGH THE
EARLY EVENING. ELEVATED WEST TO SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL ALSO PERSIST
INTO THE EVENING...WITH GUSTS UPWARDS OF 20KTS. AFTER 03/03Z OR
SO...SOME STRAY SHOWERS MAY LINGER BUT FEEL THE BULK OF THE PRECIP
ACTIVITY WILL BE WRAPPED. FEW-SCT CLOUDS 10KFT OR HIGHER MAY DRIFT
ACROSS THE AREA ALONG WITH DRIER AIR MOVING IN FROM THE WEST. THE
ADVANCE OF DRIER AIR AT THE SURFACE SHOULD HOLD OFF ANY FOG
DEVELOPMENT FOR THE MORNING HOURS...SO ATTM DO NOT HAVE ANY MENTION
IN THE TAFS.

AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDED TAFS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...
STRONG HIGH PRESSURE AND MUCH DRIER CONDITIONS WILL MOVE BACK INTO
THE DISTRICT DURING THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK. TEMPERATURES WILL
REBOUND BACK INTO A NORMAL TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL RANGE...WHILE
AFTERNOON HUMIDITY LEVELS RETURN INTO A 15 TO 25 PERCENT RANGE.
OVERNIGHT RECOVERY WILL BE GOOD. PERIODS OF GUSTY NORTH WINDS DOWN
THE COLORADO RIVER VALLEY WILL BE LIKELY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...WHILE
OCCASIONAL PERIODS OF STRONGER EASTERLY WINDS OVER RIDGE TOPS OF
CENTRAL ARIZONA MAY BE COMMON LATE IN THE WEEK.

&&

.PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

AZ...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH 8 PM TODAY AZZ022>024.

CA...NONE.

&&

$$

VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/PHOENIX

DISCUSSION...CB/PERCHA
AVIATION...NOLTE
FIRE WEATHER...MO







000
FXUS65 KPSR 022235
AFDPSR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PHOENIX AZ
333 PM MST MON MAR 2 2015

.UPDATE...TO AVIATION DISCUSSION...

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION WILL CONTINUE TO SHIFT EASTWARD THIS
AFTERNOON AND INTO THE EVENING HOURS TONIGHT. PERIODS OF MODERATE TO
HEAVY RAIN ARE ANTICIPATED ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL ARIZONA...ESPECIALLY
OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN AND FOOTHILL LOCATIONS NORTH AND EAST OF
CENTRAL PHOENIX. THERE WILL ALSO BE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS
AS WELL THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. THERE WILL ALSO BE A
LINGERING SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS OVER SOUTH CENTRAL ARIZONA
TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY AS THE SYSTEM SLOWLY EXITS TO THE EAST.
COOLER TEMPERATURES WILL ACCOMPANY THIS SYSTEM WITH BELOW NORMAL
READINGS EXPECTED THROUGH MID WEEK. A RETURN TO ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES IS LIKELY BY THURSDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE
DESERT SOUTHWEST.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
A RATHER COMPLICATED UPPER TROF ALONG THE WEST COAST CONTINUED TO
AFFECT THE DESERT SOUTHWEST...INCLUDING SERN CA AND ARIZONA...EARLY
THIS AFTERNOON. UPPER LOW CENTER CONTINUED TO SPIN ALONG THE FAR
SERN CA COAST...WHILE THE MAIN COLD FRONTAL BAND PUSHED EAST AND
INTO EAST-CENTRAL ARIZONA AT 130 PM. FRONT WAS MOVING PAST CENTRAL
PHOENIX AND INTO SOUTHERN GILA COUNTY...BUT WIDESPREAD SHOWERS
CONTINUED ACROSS MOST OF MARICOPA COUNTY AS WELL AS SOUTHERN GILA
COUNTY. RADAR AND GAGE REPORTS INDICATED THAT MOST RAINFALL TOTALS
SINCE NOON WERE LESS THAN ONE THIRD OF AN INCH...AND IN FACT MOST OF
THE GAGES IN THE MARICOPA COUNTY FLOOD CONTROL DISTRICT NETWORK
MEASURED WELL BELOW ONE QUARTER INCH SINCE 1230 PM. SO FAR WE HAVE
NOT SEEN THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT ACROSS THE CENTRAL DESERTS...BUT
AN ISOLATED STORM IS POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON AND INTO THE EARLY
EVENING...AND ANY STORM THAT FORMS WILL LEAD TO LOCALLY MODERATE OR
HEAVY RAINFALL. AS A RESULT...WE WILL CONTINUE THE FLOOD WATCH FOR
MARICOPA COUNTY EASTWARD...AND WE HAVE DROPPED THE WATCH FOR ALL
AREAS WEST OF MARICOPA COUNTY.

FOR THE REST OF THIS AFTERNOON...WE MAY SEE A FEW SHOWERS OR EVEN A
THUNDERSTORM REDEVELOP OVER PORTIONS OF SERN AZ AS CONVECTION SPILLS
OVER THE COASTAL RANGES...AND MOVES INLAND AND AHEAD OF THE
WEAKENING UPPER LOW ALONG THE FAR SERN CA COAST. WE DO NOT EXPECT
SIGNIFICANT PRECIP WITH ANY SHOWERS/STORMS THAT MOVE THROUGH SERN CA
HOWEVER...BUT SOME SPOTS COULD SEE AMOUNTS IN EXCESS OF ONE QUARTER
INCH.

BY EARLY THIS EVENING...THE MAIN FOCUS OF THIS STORM SYSTEM...THE
FRONTAL BAND AND ASSOCIATED RAIN/RAIN SHOWER SHIELD...WILL PUSH EAST
AND INTO FAR EASTERN AZ AND NEW MEXICO. AT THE SAME TIME THE LOW
ALONG THE SERN CA COAST WILL WEAKEN AND BE MOVED INLAND AS A KICKER
LOW DROPS SOUTH ALONG THE CENTRAL CA COAST. AS SUCH THE CHANCES FOR
MEASURABLE PRECIP WILL DROP OFF SIGNIFICANTLY THIS EVENING...INTO
THE CHANCE CATEGORY OVER THE CENTRAL DESERTS WITH LINGERING LIKELY
POPS ACROSS SRN GILA COUNTY. AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT WE EXPECT MAINLY
SINGLE DIGIT POPS ACROSS THE SWRN AZ DESERTS AS WELL AS SERN CA.
MODELS ARE CONSISTENT IN CALLING FOR THIS KICKER LOW TO DROP
SOUTHEAST TOWARDS THE NRN BAJA CA COAST TONIGHT...THEN SLOWLY DRIFT
EAST AND PASS BY ARIZONA TO THE SOUTH TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. AS THE
LOW PASSES BY...DYNAMICS OVER SRN AZ BECOME WEAK...BUT SIGNIFICANT
LOW/MID LEVEL MOISTURE REMAINS IN PLACE AND AS SUCH WE WILL CONTINUE
A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR INSTABILITY SHOWERS OVER SOUTH CENTRAL AZ
TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT. IN FACT...INSTABILITY LOOKS TO BE A BIT
BETTER ON TUESDAY WITH LI VALUES GOING WEAKLY NEGATIVE AND THUS WE
HAVE A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR THUNDER IN THE FORECAST ACROSS SOUTH
CENTRAL AZ ON TUESDAY. BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THE ONLY THREAT FOR
PRECIP WILL BE OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN EAST OF PHOENIX...AND SKIES
WILL BECOME MOSTLY SUNNY FROM PHOENIX WESTWARD INTO SERN CA. TEMPS
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY WILLS STEADILY WARM BUT WILL REMAIN BELOW
SEASONAL NORMALS.

ONE ISSUE WE WILL CONTEND WITH TONIGHT WILL BE FOG POTENTIAL ACROSS
SOUTH CENTRAL ARIZONA. MANY LOCATIONS WILL SEE AT LEAST MODERATE
RAINFALL TOTALS TODAY...AND HUMIDITY LEVELS WILL REMAIN HIGH
OVERNIGHT. HOWEVER...WE EXPECT LINGERING LOW/MID CLOUD DECKS TONIGHT
INTO TUESDAY...REDUCING RADIATIONAL COOLING POTENTIAL. ALSO...
FORECAST SOUNDINGS ARE NOT CLASSICAL FOG SOUNDINGS. WINDS WILL BE
LIGHT BUT SHOULD NOT BE CALM FOR EXTENDED PERIODS. THUS...THERE MAY
BE PATCHY FOG WITH VISIBILITY DOWN BELOW 5 MILES AT TIMES BUT WE DO
NOT EXPECT SIGNIFICANT DENSE FOG. AS A COMPROMISE WE ADDED PATCHY
FOG TO OUR FORECAST ZONES EAST OF THE LOWER CO RIVER TONIGHT.

FOR THURSDAY...A DRYING AND SUBSIDENT NORTHERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL SET
UP ACROSS THE AREA AS HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT STARTS TO BUILD ALONG THE
CA COAST. THIS WILL LEAD TO SUNNY SKIES...AND CONTINUED WARMING
WITH HIGH TEMPS REACHING INTO THE LOW TO MID 70S...AND TOWARDS
SEASONAL NORMALS.

FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND...
A WARMING TREND IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THIS PERIOD UNDER
MAINLY CLEAR SKIES AS HIGH PRESSURE STRENGTHENS OVER THE
REGION...WITH A DECENT CHANCE FOR HIGHS IN THE 80S ACROSS THE LOWER
DESERTS BY THE WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION...
SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA INCLUDING KPHX...KIWA AND KSDL...
MAIN RAIN SHOWER BAND REMAINS OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE PHX
METRO...WITH -SHRA/VCSH TO CONTINUE FOR KPHX...KIWA AND KSDL OVER
THE NEXT FEW HOURS. RAIN WILL CONTINUE TO TRANSITION EAST OF THE
AREA...WITH SHOWER CLEARING ALREADY NOTED ACROSS THE WESTERN
PORTIONS OF THE PHX METRO. WINDS TO GNLY HOLD POST-FRONTAL WEST TO
NORTHWEST HEADINGS WITH ELEVATED SPEEDS OF 10KTS AT LEAST...WITH
BRIEF PERIODS OF CALMER SPEEDS...UNDER 5KTS. MVFR CIGS REMAIN OVER
WESTERN MARICOPA COUNTY...DESPITE SHOWER ACTIVITY ENDING OVER THAT
AREA. CONFIDENCE IS MEDIUM IN PERIODS OF MVFR CIGS TO LINGER INTO
THE EVENING...BEFORE GRADUALLY LIFTING TOWARDS THE 5-7KFT LEVEL.
COULD SEE SOME ADDITIONAL STRAY SHOWERS DEVELOP ACROSS THE METRO
LATER IN THE EVENING...IN SIMILAR FASHION TO THE PAST COUPLE
NIGHTS...WARRANTING VCSH FOR THE EARLY EVENING.

FORECAST THOUGHTS NATURALLY TEND TOWARDS THE POTENTIAL FOR FOG
DEVELOPMENT FOR THE PHX TERMINALS...AND CRITICALLY KPHX...FOR
TUESDAY AM. WITH THE CURRENT FORECAST GUIDANCE AND SATELLITE
TRENDS...FEEL THAT WIDESPREAD SIGNIFICANT FOG DEVELOPMENT IS NOT
ANTICIPATED. SOME PATCHY FOG MAY DEVELOP FOR SOME OF THE SATELLITE
AIRFIELDS...BUT WITHIN THE PHX METRO DO NOT FEEL IFR/LIFR VSBYS WILL
BE REALIZED AT THE TERMINALS. FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE SOME MID
LEVEL CLOUDS HELPING TO INSULATE OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES...WHICH MAY
RESULT IN SOME STRATUS LAYERS ALONG NEARBY TERRAIN AND IN THE
VICINITY OF THE AIRFIELDS.

SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA AND SOUTHWEST ARIZONA INCLUDING KIPL AND KBLH...
INSTABILITY SHOWER AND ISOLATED THUNDER WILL CONTINUE ACROSS
SOUTHEAST CA IN RESPONSE TO THE ADVANCING UPPER LOW THROUGH THE
EARLY EVENING. ELEVATED WEST TO SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL ALSO PERSIST
INTO THE EVENING...WITH GUSTS UPWARDS OF 20KTS. AFTER 03/03Z OR
SO...SOME STRAY SHOWERS MAY LINGER BUT FEEL THE BULK OF THE PRECIP
ACTIVITY WILL BE WRAPPED. FEW-SCT CLOUDS 10KFT OR HIGHER MAY DRIFT
ACROSS THE AREA ALONG WITH DRIER AIR MOVING IN FROM THE WEST. THE
ADVANCE OF DRIER AIR AT THE SURFACE SHOULD HOLD OFF ANY FOG
DEVELOPMENT FOR THE MORNING HOURS...SO ATTM DO NOT HAVE ANY MENTION
IN THE TAFS.

AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDED TAFS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...
STRONG HIGH PRESSURE AND MUCH DRIER CONDITIONS WILL MOVE BACK INTO
THE DISTRICT DURING THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK. TEMPERATURES WILL
REBOUND BACK INTO A NORMAL TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL RANGE...WHILE
AFTERNOON HUMIDITY LEVELS RETURN INTO A 15 TO 25 PERCENT RANGE.
OVERNIGHT RECOVERY WILL BE GOOD. PERIODS OF GUSTY NORTH WINDS DOWN
THE COLORADO RIVER VALLEY WILL BE LIKELY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...WHILE
OCCASIONAL PERIODS OF STRONGER EASTERLY WINDS OVER RIDGE TOPS OF
CENTRAL ARIZONA MAY BE COMMON LATE IN THE WEEK.

&&

.PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

AZ...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH 8 PM TODAY AZZ022>024.

CA...NONE.

&&

$$

VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/PHOENIX

DISCUSSION...CB/PERCHA
AVIATION...NOLTE
FIRE WEATHER...MO







000
FXUS65 KPSR 022235
AFDPSR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PHOENIX AZ
333 PM MST MON MAR 2 2015

.UPDATE...TO AVIATION DISCUSSION...

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION WILL CONTINUE TO SHIFT EASTWARD THIS
AFTERNOON AND INTO THE EVENING HOURS TONIGHT. PERIODS OF MODERATE TO
HEAVY RAIN ARE ANTICIPATED ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL ARIZONA...ESPECIALLY
OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN AND FOOTHILL LOCATIONS NORTH AND EAST OF
CENTRAL PHOENIX. THERE WILL ALSO BE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS
AS WELL THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. THERE WILL ALSO BE A
LINGERING SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS OVER SOUTH CENTRAL ARIZONA
TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY AS THE SYSTEM SLOWLY EXITS TO THE EAST.
COOLER TEMPERATURES WILL ACCOMPANY THIS SYSTEM WITH BELOW NORMAL
READINGS EXPECTED THROUGH MID WEEK. A RETURN TO ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES IS LIKELY BY THURSDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE
DESERT SOUTHWEST.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
A RATHER COMPLICATED UPPER TROF ALONG THE WEST COAST CONTINUED TO
AFFECT THE DESERT SOUTHWEST...INCLUDING SERN CA AND ARIZONA...EARLY
THIS AFTERNOON. UPPER LOW CENTER CONTINUED TO SPIN ALONG THE FAR
SERN CA COAST...WHILE THE MAIN COLD FRONTAL BAND PUSHED EAST AND
INTO EAST-CENTRAL ARIZONA AT 130 PM. FRONT WAS MOVING PAST CENTRAL
PHOENIX AND INTO SOUTHERN GILA COUNTY...BUT WIDESPREAD SHOWERS
CONTINUED ACROSS MOST OF MARICOPA COUNTY AS WELL AS SOUTHERN GILA
COUNTY. RADAR AND GAGE REPORTS INDICATED THAT MOST RAINFALL TOTALS
SINCE NOON WERE LESS THAN ONE THIRD OF AN INCH...AND IN FACT MOST OF
THE GAGES IN THE MARICOPA COUNTY FLOOD CONTROL DISTRICT NETWORK
MEASURED WELL BELOW ONE QUARTER INCH SINCE 1230 PM. SO FAR WE HAVE
NOT SEEN THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT ACROSS THE CENTRAL DESERTS...BUT
AN ISOLATED STORM IS POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON AND INTO THE EARLY
EVENING...AND ANY STORM THAT FORMS WILL LEAD TO LOCALLY MODERATE OR
HEAVY RAINFALL. AS A RESULT...WE WILL CONTINUE THE FLOOD WATCH FOR
MARICOPA COUNTY EASTWARD...AND WE HAVE DROPPED THE WATCH FOR ALL
AREAS WEST OF MARICOPA COUNTY.

FOR THE REST OF THIS AFTERNOON...WE MAY SEE A FEW SHOWERS OR EVEN A
THUNDERSTORM REDEVELOP OVER PORTIONS OF SERN AZ AS CONVECTION SPILLS
OVER THE COASTAL RANGES...AND MOVES INLAND AND AHEAD OF THE
WEAKENING UPPER LOW ALONG THE FAR SERN CA COAST. WE DO NOT EXPECT
SIGNIFICANT PRECIP WITH ANY SHOWERS/STORMS THAT MOVE THROUGH SERN CA
HOWEVER...BUT SOME SPOTS COULD SEE AMOUNTS IN EXCESS OF ONE QUARTER
INCH.

BY EARLY THIS EVENING...THE MAIN FOCUS OF THIS STORM SYSTEM...THE
FRONTAL BAND AND ASSOCIATED RAIN/RAIN SHOWER SHIELD...WILL PUSH EAST
AND INTO FAR EASTERN AZ AND NEW MEXICO. AT THE SAME TIME THE LOW
ALONG THE SERN CA COAST WILL WEAKEN AND BE MOVED INLAND AS A KICKER
LOW DROPS SOUTH ALONG THE CENTRAL CA COAST. AS SUCH THE CHANCES FOR
MEASURABLE PRECIP WILL DROP OFF SIGNIFICANTLY THIS EVENING...INTO
THE CHANCE CATEGORY OVER THE CENTRAL DESERTS WITH LINGERING LIKELY
POPS ACROSS SRN GILA COUNTY. AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT WE EXPECT MAINLY
SINGLE DIGIT POPS ACROSS THE SWRN AZ DESERTS AS WELL AS SERN CA.
MODELS ARE CONSISTENT IN CALLING FOR THIS KICKER LOW TO DROP
SOUTHEAST TOWARDS THE NRN BAJA CA COAST TONIGHT...THEN SLOWLY DRIFT
EAST AND PASS BY ARIZONA TO THE SOUTH TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. AS THE
LOW PASSES BY...DYNAMICS OVER SRN AZ BECOME WEAK...BUT SIGNIFICANT
LOW/MID LEVEL MOISTURE REMAINS IN PLACE AND AS SUCH WE WILL CONTINUE
A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR INSTABILITY SHOWERS OVER SOUTH CENTRAL AZ
TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT. IN FACT...INSTABILITY LOOKS TO BE A BIT
BETTER ON TUESDAY WITH LI VALUES GOING WEAKLY NEGATIVE AND THUS WE
HAVE A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR THUNDER IN THE FORECAST ACROSS SOUTH
CENTRAL AZ ON TUESDAY. BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THE ONLY THREAT FOR
PRECIP WILL BE OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN EAST OF PHOENIX...AND SKIES
WILL BECOME MOSTLY SUNNY FROM PHOENIX WESTWARD INTO SERN CA. TEMPS
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY WILLS STEADILY WARM BUT WILL REMAIN BELOW
SEASONAL NORMALS.

ONE ISSUE WE WILL CONTEND WITH TONIGHT WILL BE FOG POTENTIAL ACROSS
SOUTH CENTRAL ARIZONA. MANY LOCATIONS WILL SEE AT LEAST MODERATE
RAINFALL TOTALS TODAY...AND HUMIDITY LEVELS WILL REMAIN HIGH
OVERNIGHT. HOWEVER...WE EXPECT LINGERING LOW/MID CLOUD DECKS TONIGHT
INTO TUESDAY...REDUCING RADIATIONAL COOLING POTENTIAL. ALSO...
FORECAST SOUNDINGS ARE NOT CLASSICAL FOG SOUNDINGS. WINDS WILL BE
LIGHT BUT SHOULD NOT BE CALM FOR EXTENDED PERIODS. THUS...THERE MAY
BE PATCHY FOG WITH VISIBILITY DOWN BELOW 5 MILES AT TIMES BUT WE DO
NOT EXPECT SIGNIFICANT DENSE FOG. AS A COMPROMISE WE ADDED PATCHY
FOG TO OUR FORECAST ZONES EAST OF THE LOWER CO RIVER TONIGHT.

FOR THURSDAY...A DRYING AND SUBSIDENT NORTHERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL SET
UP ACROSS THE AREA AS HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT STARTS TO BUILD ALONG THE
CA COAST. THIS WILL LEAD TO SUNNY SKIES...AND CONTINUED WARMING
WITH HIGH TEMPS REACHING INTO THE LOW TO MID 70S...AND TOWARDS
SEASONAL NORMALS.

FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND...
A WARMING TREND IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THIS PERIOD UNDER
MAINLY CLEAR SKIES AS HIGH PRESSURE STRENGTHENS OVER THE
REGION...WITH A DECENT CHANCE FOR HIGHS IN THE 80S ACROSS THE LOWER
DESERTS BY THE WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION...
SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA INCLUDING KPHX...KIWA AND KSDL...
MAIN RAIN SHOWER BAND REMAINS OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE PHX
METRO...WITH -SHRA/VCSH TO CONTINUE FOR KPHX...KIWA AND KSDL OVER
THE NEXT FEW HOURS. RAIN WILL CONTINUE TO TRANSITION EAST OF THE
AREA...WITH SHOWER CLEARING ALREADY NOTED ACROSS THE WESTERN
PORTIONS OF THE PHX METRO. WINDS TO GNLY HOLD POST-FRONTAL WEST TO
NORTHWEST HEADINGS WITH ELEVATED SPEEDS OF 10KTS AT LEAST...WITH
BRIEF PERIODS OF CALMER SPEEDS...UNDER 5KTS. MVFR CIGS REMAIN OVER
WESTERN MARICOPA COUNTY...DESPITE SHOWER ACTIVITY ENDING OVER THAT
AREA. CONFIDENCE IS MEDIUM IN PERIODS OF MVFR CIGS TO LINGER INTO
THE EVENING...BEFORE GRADUALLY LIFTING TOWARDS THE 5-7KFT LEVEL.
COULD SEE SOME ADDITIONAL STRAY SHOWERS DEVELOP ACROSS THE METRO
LATER IN THE EVENING...IN SIMILAR FASHION TO THE PAST COUPLE
NIGHTS...WARRANTING VCSH FOR THE EARLY EVENING.

FORECAST THOUGHTS NATURALLY TEND TOWARDS THE POTENTIAL FOR FOG
DEVELOPMENT FOR THE PHX TERMINALS...AND CRITICALLY KPHX...FOR
TUESDAY AM. WITH THE CURRENT FORECAST GUIDANCE AND SATELLITE
TRENDS...FEEL THAT WIDESPREAD SIGNIFICANT FOG DEVELOPMENT IS NOT
ANTICIPATED. SOME PATCHY FOG MAY DEVELOP FOR SOME OF THE SATELLITE
AIRFIELDS...BUT WITHIN THE PHX METRO DO NOT FEEL IFR/LIFR VSBYS WILL
BE REALIZED AT THE TERMINALS. FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE SOME MID
LEVEL CLOUDS HELPING TO INSULATE OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES...WHICH MAY
RESULT IN SOME STRATUS LAYERS ALONG NEARBY TERRAIN AND IN THE
VICINITY OF THE AIRFIELDS.

SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA AND SOUTHWEST ARIZONA INCLUDING KIPL AND KBLH...
INSTABILITY SHOWER AND ISOLATED THUNDER WILL CONTINUE ACROSS
SOUTHEAST CA IN RESPONSE TO THE ADVANCING UPPER LOW THROUGH THE
EARLY EVENING. ELEVATED WEST TO SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL ALSO PERSIST
INTO THE EVENING...WITH GUSTS UPWARDS OF 20KTS. AFTER 03/03Z OR
SO...SOME STRAY SHOWERS MAY LINGER BUT FEEL THE BULK OF THE PRECIP
ACTIVITY WILL BE WRAPPED. FEW-SCT CLOUDS 10KFT OR HIGHER MAY DRIFT
ACROSS THE AREA ALONG WITH DRIER AIR MOVING IN FROM THE WEST. THE
ADVANCE OF DRIER AIR AT THE SURFACE SHOULD HOLD OFF ANY FOG
DEVELOPMENT FOR THE MORNING HOURS...SO ATTM DO NOT HAVE ANY MENTION
IN THE TAFS.

AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDED TAFS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...
STRONG HIGH PRESSURE AND MUCH DRIER CONDITIONS WILL MOVE BACK INTO
THE DISTRICT DURING THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK. TEMPERATURES WILL
REBOUND BACK INTO A NORMAL TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL RANGE...WHILE
AFTERNOON HUMIDITY LEVELS RETURN INTO A 15 TO 25 PERCENT RANGE.
OVERNIGHT RECOVERY WILL BE GOOD. PERIODS OF GUSTY NORTH WINDS DOWN
THE COLORADO RIVER VALLEY WILL BE LIKELY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...WHILE
OCCASIONAL PERIODS OF STRONGER EASTERLY WINDS OVER RIDGE TOPS OF
CENTRAL ARIZONA MAY BE COMMON LATE IN THE WEEK.

&&

.PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

AZ...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH 8 PM TODAY AZZ022>024.

CA...NONE.

&&

$$

VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/PHOENIX

DISCUSSION...CB/PERCHA
AVIATION...NOLTE
FIRE WEATHER...MO







000
FXUS65 KPSR 022235
AFDPSR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PHOENIX AZ
333 PM MST MON MAR 2 2015

.UPDATE...TO AVIATION DISCUSSION...

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION WILL CONTINUE TO SHIFT EASTWARD THIS
AFTERNOON AND INTO THE EVENING HOURS TONIGHT. PERIODS OF MODERATE TO
HEAVY RAIN ARE ANTICIPATED ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL ARIZONA...ESPECIALLY
OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN AND FOOTHILL LOCATIONS NORTH AND EAST OF
CENTRAL PHOENIX. THERE WILL ALSO BE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS
AS WELL THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. THERE WILL ALSO BE A
LINGERING SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS OVER SOUTH CENTRAL ARIZONA
TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY AS THE SYSTEM SLOWLY EXITS TO THE EAST.
COOLER TEMPERATURES WILL ACCOMPANY THIS SYSTEM WITH BELOW NORMAL
READINGS EXPECTED THROUGH MID WEEK. A RETURN TO ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES IS LIKELY BY THURSDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE
DESERT SOUTHWEST.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
A RATHER COMPLICATED UPPER TROF ALONG THE WEST COAST CONTINUED TO
AFFECT THE DESERT SOUTHWEST...INCLUDING SERN CA AND ARIZONA...EARLY
THIS AFTERNOON. UPPER LOW CENTER CONTINUED TO SPIN ALONG THE FAR
SERN CA COAST...WHILE THE MAIN COLD FRONTAL BAND PUSHED EAST AND
INTO EAST-CENTRAL ARIZONA AT 130 PM. FRONT WAS MOVING PAST CENTRAL
PHOENIX AND INTO SOUTHERN GILA COUNTY...BUT WIDESPREAD SHOWERS
CONTINUED ACROSS MOST OF MARICOPA COUNTY AS WELL AS SOUTHERN GILA
COUNTY. RADAR AND GAGE REPORTS INDICATED THAT MOST RAINFALL TOTALS
SINCE NOON WERE LESS THAN ONE THIRD OF AN INCH...AND IN FACT MOST OF
THE GAGES IN THE MARICOPA COUNTY FLOOD CONTROL DISTRICT NETWORK
MEASURED WELL BELOW ONE QUARTER INCH SINCE 1230 PM. SO FAR WE HAVE
NOT SEEN THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT ACROSS THE CENTRAL DESERTS...BUT
AN ISOLATED STORM IS POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON AND INTO THE EARLY
EVENING...AND ANY STORM THAT FORMS WILL LEAD TO LOCALLY MODERATE OR
HEAVY RAINFALL. AS A RESULT...WE WILL CONTINUE THE FLOOD WATCH FOR
MARICOPA COUNTY EASTWARD...AND WE HAVE DROPPED THE WATCH FOR ALL
AREAS WEST OF MARICOPA COUNTY.

FOR THE REST OF THIS AFTERNOON...WE MAY SEE A FEW SHOWERS OR EVEN A
THUNDERSTORM REDEVELOP OVER PORTIONS OF SERN AZ AS CONVECTION SPILLS
OVER THE COASTAL RANGES...AND MOVES INLAND AND AHEAD OF THE
WEAKENING UPPER LOW ALONG THE FAR SERN CA COAST. WE DO NOT EXPECT
SIGNIFICANT PRECIP WITH ANY SHOWERS/STORMS THAT MOVE THROUGH SERN CA
HOWEVER...BUT SOME SPOTS COULD SEE AMOUNTS IN EXCESS OF ONE QUARTER
INCH.

BY EARLY THIS EVENING...THE MAIN FOCUS OF THIS STORM SYSTEM...THE
FRONTAL BAND AND ASSOCIATED RAIN/RAIN SHOWER SHIELD...WILL PUSH EAST
AND INTO FAR EASTERN AZ AND NEW MEXICO. AT THE SAME TIME THE LOW
ALONG THE SERN CA COAST WILL WEAKEN AND BE MOVED INLAND AS A KICKER
LOW DROPS SOUTH ALONG THE CENTRAL CA COAST. AS SUCH THE CHANCES FOR
MEASURABLE PRECIP WILL DROP OFF SIGNIFICANTLY THIS EVENING...INTO
THE CHANCE CATEGORY OVER THE CENTRAL DESERTS WITH LINGERING LIKELY
POPS ACROSS SRN GILA COUNTY. AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT WE EXPECT MAINLY
SINGLE DIGIT POPS ACROSS THE SWRN AZ DESERTS AS WELL AS SERN CA.
MODELS ARE CONSISTENT IN CALLING FOR THIS KICKER LOW TO DROP
SOUTHEAST TOWARDS THE NRN BAJA CA COAST TONIGHT...THEN SLOWLY DRIFT
EAST AND PASS BY ARIZONA TO THE SOUTH TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. AS THE
LOW PASSES BY...DYNAMICS OVER SRN AZ BECOME WEAK...BUT SIGNIFICANT
LOW/MID LEVEL MOISTURE REMAINS IN PLACE AND AS SUCH WE WILL CONTINUE
A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR INSTABILITY SHOWERS OVER SOUTH CENTRAL AZ
TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT. IN FACT...INSTABILITY LOOKS TO BE A BIT
BETTER ON TUESDAY WITH LI VALUES GOING WEAKLY NEGATIVE AND THUS WE
HAVE A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR THUNDER IN THE FORECAST ACROSS SOUTH
CENTRAL AZ ON TUESDAY. BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THE ONLY THREAT FOR
PRECIP WILL BE OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN EAST OF PHOENIX...AND SKIES
WILL BECOME MOSTLY SUNNY FROM PHOENIX WESTWARD INTO SERN CA. TEMPS
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY WILLS STEADILY WARM BUT WILL REMAIN BELOW
SEASONAL NORMALS.

ONE ISSUE WE WILL CONTEND WITH TONIGHT WILL BE FOG POTENTIAL ACROSS
SOUTH CENTRAL ARIZONA. MANY LOCATIONS WILL SEE AT LEAST MODERATE
RAINFALL TOTALS TODAY...AND HUMIDITY LEVELS WILL REMAIN HIGH
OVERNIGHT. HOWEVER...WE EXPECT LINGERING LOW/MID CLOUD DECKS TONIGHT
INTO TUESDAY...REDUCING RADIATIONAL COOLING POTENTIAL. ALSO...
FORECAST SOUNDINGS ARE NOT CLASSICAL FOG SOUNDINGS. WINDS WILL BE
LIGHT BUT SHOULD NOT BE CALM FOR EXTENDED PERIODS. THUS...THERE MAY
BE PATCHY FOG WITH VISIBILITY DOWN BELOW 5 MILES AT TIMES BUT WE DO
NOT EXPECT SIGNIFICANT DENSE FOG. AS A COMPROMISE WE ADDED PATCHY
FOG TO OUR FORECAST ZONES EAST OF THE LOWER CO RIVER TONIGHT.

FOR THURSDAY...A DRYING AND SUBSIDENT NORTHERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL SET
UP ACROSS THE AREA AS HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT STARTS TO BUILD ALONG THE
CA COAST. THIS WILL LEAD TO SUNNY SKIES...AND CONTINUED WARMING
WITH HIGH TEMPS REACHING INTO THE LOW TO MID 70S...AND TOWARDS
SEASONAL NORMALS.

FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND...
A WARMING TREND IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THIS PERIOD UNDER
MAINLY CLEAR SKIES AS HIGH PRESSURE STRENGTHENS OVER THE
REGION...WITH A DECENT CHANCE FOR HIGHS IN THE 80S ACROSS THE LOWER
DESERTS BY THE WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION...
SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA INCLUDING KPHX...KIWA AND KSDL...
MAIN RAIN SHOWER BAND REMAINS OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE PHX
METRO...WITH -SHRA/VCSH TO CONTINUE FOR KPHX...KIWA AND KSDL OVER
THE NEXT FEW HOURS. RAIN WILL CONTINUE TO TRANSITION EAST OF THE
AREA...WITH SHOWER CLEARING ALREADY NOTED ACROSS THE WESTERN
PORTIONS OF THE PHX METRO. WINDS TO GNLY HOLD POST-FRONTAL WEST TO
NORTHWEST HEADINGS WITH ELEVATED SPEEDS OF 10KTS AT LEAST...WITH
BRIEF PERIODS OF CALMER SPEEDS...UNDER 5KTS. MVFR CIGS REMAIN OVER
WESTERN MARICOPA COUNTY...DESPITE SHOWER ACTIVITY ENDING OVER THAT
AREA. CONFIDENCE IS MEDIUM IN PERIODS OF MVFR CIGS TO LINGER INTO
THE EVENING...BEFORE GRADUALLY LIFTING TOWARDS THE 5-7KFT LEVEL.
COULD SEE SOME ADDITIONAL STRAY SHOWERS DEVELOP ACROSS THE METRO
LATER IN THE EVENING...IN SIMILAR FASHION TO THE PAST COUPLE
NIGHTS...WARRANTING VCSH FOR THE EARLY EVENING.

FORECAST THOUGHTS NATURALLY TEND TOWARDS THE POTENTIAL FOR FOG
DEVELOPMENT FOR THE PHX TERMINALS...AND CRITICALLY KPHX...FOR
TUESDAY AM. WITH THE CURRENT FORECAST GUIDANCE AND SATELLITE
TRENDS...FEEL THAT WIDESPREAD SIGNIFICANT FOG DEVELOPMENT IS NOT
ANTICIPATED. SOME PATCHY FOG MAY DEVELOP FOR SOME OF THE SATELLITE
AIRFIELDS...BUT WITHIN THE PHX METRO DO NOT FEEL IFR/LIFR VSBYS WILL
BE REALIZED AT THE TERMINALS. FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE SOME MID
LEVEL CLOUDS HELPING TO INSULATE OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES...WHICH MAY
RESULT IN SOME STRATUS LAYERS ALONG NEARBY TERRAIN AND IN THE
VICINITY OF THE AIRFIELDS.

SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA AND SOUTHWEST ARIZONA INCLUDING KIPL AND KBLH...
INSTABILITY SHOWER AND ISOLATED THUNDER WILL CONTINUE ACROSS
SOUTHEAST CA IN RESPONSE TO THE ADVANCING UPPER LOW THROUGH THE
EARLY EVENING. ELEVATED WEST TO SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL ALSO PERSIST
INTO THE EVENING...WITH GUSTS UPWARDS OF 20KTS. AFTER 03/03Z OR
SO...SOME STRAY SHOWERS MAY LINGER BUT FEEL THE BULK OF THE PRECIP
ACTIVITY WILL BE WRAPPED. FEW-SCT CLOUDS 10KFT OR HIGHER MAY DRIFT
ACROSS THE AREA ALONG WITH DRIER AIR MOVING IN FROM THE WEST. THE
ADVANCE OF DRIER AIR AT THE SURFACE SHOULD HOLD OFF ANY FOG
DEVELOPMENT FOR THE MORNING HOURS...SO ATTM DO NOT HAVE ANY MENTION
IN THE TAFS.

AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDED TAFS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...
STRONG HIGH PRESSURE AND MUCH DRIER CONDITIONS WILL MOVE BACK INTO
THE DISTRICT DURING THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK. TEMPERATURES WILL
REBOUND BACK INTO A NORMAL TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL RANGE...WHILE
AFTERNOON HUMIDITY LEVELS RETURN INTO A 15 TO 25 PERCENT RANGE.
OVERNIGHT RECOVERY WILL BE GOOD. PERIODS OF GUSTY NORTH WINDS DOWN
THE COLORADO RIVER VALLEY WILL BE LIKELY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...WHILE
OCCASIONAL PERIODS OF STRONGER EASTERLY WINDS OVER RIDGE TOPS OF
CENTRAL ARIZONA MAY BE COMMON LATE IN THE WEEK.

&&

.PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

AZ...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH 8 PM TODAY AZZ022>024.

CA...NONE.

&&

$$

VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/PHOENIX

DISCUSSION...CB/PERCHA
AVIATION...NOLTE
FIRE WEATHER...MO








000
FXUS65 KPSR 022235
AFDPSR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PHOENIX AZ
333 PM MST MON MAR 2 2015

.UPDATE...TO AVIATION DISCUSSION...

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION WILL CONTINUE TO SHIFT EASTWARD THIS
AFTERNOON AND INTO THE EVENING HOURS TONIGHT. PERIODS OF MODERATE TO
HEAVY RAIN ARE ANTICIPATED ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL ARIZONA...ESPECIALLY
OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN AND FOOTHILL LOCATIONS NORTH AND EAST OF
CENTRAL PHOENIX. THERE WILL ALSO BE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS
AS WELL THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. THERE WILL ALSO BE A
LINGERING SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS OVER SOUTH CENTRAL ARIZONA
TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY AS THE SYSTEM SLOWLY EXITS TO THE EAST.
COOLER TEMPERATURES WILL ACCOMPANY THIS SYSTEM WITH BELOW NORMAL
READINGS EXPECTED THROUGH MID WEEK. A RETURN TO ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES IS LIKELY BY THURSDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE
DESERT SOUTHWEST.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
A RATHER COMPLICATED UPPER TROF ALONG THE WEST COAST CONTINUED TO
AFFECT THE DESERT SOUTHWEST...INCLUDING SERN CA AND ARIZONA...EARLY
THIS AFTERNOON. UPPER LOW CENTER CONTINUED TO SPIN ALONG THE FAR
SERN CA COAST...WHILE THE MAIN COLD FRONTAL BAND PUSHED EAST AND
INTO EAST-CENTRAL ARIZONA AT 130 PM. FRONT WAS MOVING PAST CENTRAL
PHOENIX AND INTO SOUTHERN GILA COUNTY...BUT WIDESPREAD SHOWERS
CONTINUED ACROSS MOST OF MARICOPA COUNTY AS WELL AS SOUTHERN GILA
COUNTY. RADAR AND GAGE REPORTS INDICATED THAT MOST RAINFALL TOTALS
SINCE NOON WERE LESS THAN ONE THIRD OF AN INCH...AND IN FACT MOST OF
THE GAGES IN THE MARICOPA COUNTY FLOOD CONTROL DISTRICT NETWORK
MEASURED WELL BELOW ONE QUARTER INCH SINCE 1230 PM. SO FAR WE HAVE
NOT SEEN THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT ACROSS THE CENTRAL DESERTS...BUT
AN ISOLATED STORM IS POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON AND INTO THE EARLY
EVENING...AND ANY STORM THAT FORMS WILL LEAD TO LOCALLY MODERATE OR
HEAVY RAINFALL. AS A RESULT...WE WILL CONTINUE THE FLOOD WATCH FOR
MARICOPA COUNTY EASTWARD...AND WE HAVE DROPPED THE WATCH FOR ALL
AREAS WEST OF MARICOPA COUNTY.

FOR THE REST OF THIS AFTERNOON...WE MAY SEE A FEW SHOWERS OR EVEN A
THUNDERSTORM REDEVELOP OVER PORTIONS OF SERN AZ AS CONVECTION SPILLS
OVER THE COASTAL RANGES...AND MOVES INLAND AND AHEAD OF THE
WEAKENING UPPER LOW ALONG THE FAR SERN CA COAST. WE DO NOT EXPECT
SIGNIFICANT PRECIP WITH ANY SHOWERS/STORMS THAT MOVE THROUGH SERN CA
HOWEVER...BUT SOME SPOTS COULD SEE AMOUNTS IN EXCESS OF ONE QUARTER
INCH.

BY EARLY THIS EVENING...THE MAIN FOCUS OF THIS STORM SYSTEM...THE
FRONTAL BAND AND ASSOCIATED RAIN/RAIN SHOWER SHIELD...WILL PUSH EAST
AND INTO FAR EASTERN AZ AND NEW MEXICO. AT THE SAME TIME THE LOW
ALONG THE SERN CA COAST WILL WEAKEN AND BE MOVED INLAND AS A KICKER
LOW DROPS SOUTH ALONG THE CENTRAL CA COAST. AS SUCH THE CHANCES FOR
MEASURABLE PRECIP WILL DROP OFF SIGNIFICANTLY THIS EVENING...INTO
THE CHANCE CATEGORY OVER THE CENTRAL DESERTS WITH LINGERING LIKELY
POPS ACROSS SRN GILA COUNTY. AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT WE EXPECT MAINLY
SINGLE DIGIT POPS ACROSS THE SWRN AZ DESERTS AS WELL AS SERN CA.
MODELS ARE CONSISTENT IN CALLING FOR THIS KICKER LOW TO DROP
SOUTHEAST TOWARDS THE NRN BAJA CA COAST TONIGHT...THEN SLOWLY DRIFT
EAST AND PASS BY ARIZONA TO THE SOUTH TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. AS THE
LOW PASSES BY...DYNAMICS OVER SRN AZ BECOME WEAK...BUT SIGNIFICANT
LOW/MID LEVEL MOISTURE REMAINS IN PLACE AND AS SUCH WE WILL CONTINUE
A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR INSTABILITY SHOWERS OVER SOUTH CENTRAL AZ
TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT. IN FACT...INSTABILITY LOOKS TO BE A BIT
BETTER ON TUESDAY WITH LI VALUES GOING WEAKLY NEGATIVE AND THUS WE
HAVE A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR THUNDER IN THE FORECAST ACROSS SOUTH
CENTRAL AZ ON TUESDAY. BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THE ONLY THREAT FOR
PRECIP WILL BE OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN EAST OF PHOENIX...AND SKIES
WILL BECOME MOSTLY SUNNY FROM PHOENIX WESTWARD INTO SERN CA. TEMPS
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY WILLS STEADILY WARM BUT WILL REMAIN BELOW
SEASONAL NORMALS.

ONE ISSUE WE WILL CONTEND WITH TONIGHT WILL BE FOG POTENTIAL ACROSS
SOUTH CENTRAL ARIZONA. MANY LOCATIONS WILL SEE AT LEAST MODERATE
RAINFALL TOTALS TODAY...AND HUMIDITY LEVELS WILL REMAIN HIGH
OVERNIGHT. HOWEVER...WE EXPECT LINGERING LOW/MID CLOUD DECKS TONIGHT
INTO TUESDAY...REDUCING RADIATIONAL COOLING POTENTIAL. ALSO...
FORECAST SOUNDINGS ARE NOT CLASSICAL FOG SOUNDINGS. WINDS WILL BE
LIGHT BUT SHOULD NOT BE CALM FOR EXTENDED PERIODS. THUS...THERE MAY
BE PATCHY FOG WITH VISIBILITY DOWN BELOW 5 MILES AT TIMES BUT WE DO
NOT EXPECT SIGNIFICANT DENSE FOG. AS A COMPROMISE WE ADDED PATCHY
FOG TO OUR FORECAST ZONES EAST OF THE LOWER CO RIVER TONIGHT.

FOR THURSDAY...A DRYING AND SUBSIDENT NORTHERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL SET
UP ACROSS THE AREA AS HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT STARTS TO BUILD ALONG THE
CA COAST. THIS WILL LEAD TO SUNNY SKIES...AND CONTINUED WARMING
WITH HIGH TEMPS REACHING INTO THE LOW TO MID 70S...AND TOWARDS
SEASONAL NORMALS.

FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND...
A WARMING TREND IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THIS PERIOD UNDER
MAINLY CLEAR SKIES AS HIGH PRESSURE STRENGTHENS OVER THE
REGION...WITH A DECENT CHANCE FOR HIGHS IN THE 80S ACROSS THE LOWER
DESERTS BY THE WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION...
SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA INCLUDING KPHX...KIWA AND KSDL...
MAIN RAIN SHOWER BAND REMAINS OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE PHX
METRO...WITH -SHRA/VCSH TO CONTINUE FOR KPHX...KIWA AND KSDL OVER
THE NEXT FEW HOURS. RAIN WILL CONTINUE TO TRANSITION EAST OF THE
AREA...WITH SHOWER CLEARING ALREADY NOTED ACROSS THE WESTERN
PORTIONS OF THE PHX METRO. WINDS TO GNLY HOLD POST-FRONTAL WEST TO
NORTHWEST HEADINGS WITH ELEVATED SPEEDS OF 10KTS AT LEAST...WITH
BRIEF PERIODS OF CALMER SPEEDS...UNDER 5KTS. MVFR CIGS REMAIN OVER
WESTERN MARICOPA COUNTY...DESPITE SHOWER ACTIVITY ENDING OVER THAT
AREA. CONFIDENCE IS MEDIUM IN PERIODS OF MVFR CIGS TO LINGER INTO
THE EVENING...BEFORE GRADUALLY LIFTING TOWARDS THE 5-7KFT LEVEL.
COULD SEE SOME ADDITIONAL STRAY SHOWERS DEVELOP ACROSS THE METRO
LATER IN THE EVENING...IN SIMILAR FASHION TO THE PAST COUPLE
NIGHTS...WARRANTING VCSH FOR THE EARLY EVENING.

FORECAST THOUGHTS NATURALLY TEND TOWARDS THE POTENTIAL FOR FOG
DEVELOPMENT FOR THE PHX TERMINALS...AND CRITICALLY KPHX...FOR
TUESDAY AM. WITH THE CURRENT FORECAST GUIDANCE AND SATELLITE
TRENDS...FEEL THAT WIDESPREAD SIGNIFICANT FOG DEVELOPMENT IS NOT
ANTICIPATED. SOME PATCHY FOG MAY DEVELOP FOR SOME OF THE SATELLITE
AIRFIELDS...BUT WITHIN THE PHX METRO DO NOT FEEL IFR/LIFR VSBYS WILL
BE REALIZED AT THE TERMINALS. FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE SOME MID
LEVEL CLOUDS HELPING TO INSULATE OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES...WHICH MAY
RESULT IN SOME STRATUS LAYERS ALONG NEARBY TERRAIN AND IN THE
VICINITY OF THE AIRFIELDS.

SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA AND SOUTHWEST ARIZONA INCLUDING KIPL AND KBLH...
INSTABILITY SHOWER AND ISOLATED THUNDER WILL CONTINUE ACROSS
SOUTHEAST CA IN RESPONSE TO THE ADVANCING UPPER LOW THROUGH THE
EARLY EVENING. ELEVATED WEST TO SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL ALSO PERSIST
INTO THE EVENING...WITH GUSTS UPWARDS OF 20KTS. AFTER 03/03Z OR
SO...SOME STRAY SHOWERS MAY LINGER BUT FEEL THE BULK OF THE PRECIP
ACTIVITY WILL BE WRAPPED. FEW-SCT CLOUDS 10KFT OR HIGHER MAY DRIFT
ACROSS THE AREA ALONG WITH DRIER AIR MOVING IN FROM THE WEST. THE
ADVANCE OF DRIER AIR AT THE SURFACE SHOULD HOLD OFF ANY FOG
DEVELOPMENT FOR THE MORNING HOURS...SO ATTM DO NOT HAVE ANY MENTION
IN THE TAFS.

AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDED TAFS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...
STRONG HIGH PRESSURE AND MUCH DRIER CONDITIONS WILL MOVE BACK INTO
THE DISTRICT DURING THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK. TEMPERATURES WILL
REBOUND BACK INTO A NORMAL TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL RANGE...WHILE
AFTERNOON HUMIDITY LEVELS RETURN INTO A 15 TO 25 PERCENT RANGE.
OVERNIGHT RECOVERY WILL BE GOOD. PERIODS OF GUSTY NORTH WINDS DOWN
THE COLORADO RIVER VALLEY WILL BE LIKELY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...WHILE
OCCASIONAL PERIODS OF STRONGER EASTERLY WINDS OVER RIDGE TOPS OF
CENTRAL ARIZONA MAY BE COMMON LATE IN THE WEEK.

&&

.PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

AZ...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH 8 PM TODAY AZZ022>024.

CA...NONE.

&&

$$

VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/PHOENIX

DISCUSSION...CB/PERCHA
AVIATION...NOLTE
FIRE WEATHER...MO







000
FXUS65 KFGZ 022214
AFDFGZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ
300 PM MST MON MAR 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A PACIFIC STORM SYSTEM WILL SLOWLY HEAD EASTWARD OVERNIGHT. LOOK FOR
AREAS OF HEAVIER RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS FROM ABOUT FLAGSTAFF EASTWARD
DURING THE EVENING HOURS WITH PRECIPITATION DECREASING THE REMAINDER
OF THE NIGHT. ANOTHER WEATHER DISTURBANCE WILL BRUSH THE AREA ON
TUESDAY A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS WILL REMAIN IN THE FORECAST. HIGH
PRESSURE WITH DRIER AND WARMER WEATHER RETURNS BY THURSDAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
THE CURRENT STORM SYSTEM AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO MAKE
SLOW PROGRESS EASTWARD. AT 230 PM MST A COLD FRONT EXTENDED FROM OVER
THE FOUR CORNERS SOUTHWESTWARD TO ACROSS PAYSON AND THE GREATER
PHOENIX AREA. THE HEAVIEST PRECIPITATION WAS LOCATED ALONG AND JUST
BEHIND THIS COLD FRONT. DURING THE EVENING HOURS THE COLD FRONT AND
PRECIPITATION BAND WILL PROGRESS EASTWARD HEADING INTO NEW MEXICO
AROUND MIDNIGHT. DOWNGRADED THE WINTER STORM WARNING FOR PORTIONS OF
THE EASTERN MOGOLLON RIM AND WHITES MOUNTAINS TO A WINTER WEATHER
ADVISORY DUE TO MUCH LOWER STORM TOTALS ANTICIPATED.

ON TUESDAY...ONE LAST SHORTWAVE WILL SWING ACROSS ARIZONA. LOOK
LIKE ENOUGH MOISTURE, UPWARD MOTION AND INSTABILITY FOR SCATTERED
SHOWERS ACROSS THE NORTHLAND. SNOW LEVELS WILL GENERALLY RANGE FROM
5000 FEET OVER NORTHEAST ARIZONA TO NEAR 6000 FEET OVER THE WHITE
MOUNTAINS. SNOW ACCUMULATION WILL RANGE FROM A TRACE TO 2 INCHES ON
TUESDAY.

FOR WEDNESDAY AND BEYOND...LOOK FOR LINGERING SHOWER ACTIVITY OVER
FAR EASTERN ARIZONA ON WEDNESDAY AS THE LAST PIECE OF SHORTWAVE
ENERGY HEADS INTO NEW MEXICO. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD IN FROM
THE WEST ON THURSDAY AND THROUGH THE WEEKEND. A BIT WARMER EACH DAY
WITH DRY CONDITIONS AND GENERALLY CLEAR SKIES.

&&

.AVIATION...
FOR THE 00Z PACKAGE...A COLD FRONT PUSHING ACROSS THE STATE FROM
WEST TO EAST TODAY WILL CAUSE MODERATE TO HEAVY PRECIPITATION WITH
WIDESPREAD IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY.
PRECIPITATION WILL BECOME SHOWERY AND DECREASING MOST AREAS BY LATER
THIS EVENING. STRONG S-SW WIND 20-30KT G40-45KT NORTHEAST OF
MOGOLLON RIM THIS AFTERNOON BUT DECREASING SIGNIFICANTLY AFTER
SUNSET. AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR TAF AMENDMENTS.

&&

.FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 7 PM MST THIS EVENING FOR AZZ015.

WIND ADVISORY FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 5 PM MST THIS
AFTERNOON FOR AZZ010-012>014-040.

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 1 AM MST
TUESDAY FOR AZZ009-039.

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 2 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 1 AM MST
TUESDAY FOR AZZ011.

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM MST TUESDAY FOR AZZ016>018.

WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 7 PM MST THIS EVENING FOR AZZ004-
006-007.

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL TO 7 PM MST THIS EVENING FOR AZZ008.

&&

$$

PUBLIC.........MCCOLLUM
AVIATION.......KD

FOR NORTHERN ARIZONA WEATHER INFORMATION VISIT
WEATHER.GOV/FLAGSTAFF





000
FXUS65 KFGZ 022214
AFDFGZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ
300 PM MST MON MAR 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A PACIFIC STORM SYSTEM WILL SLOWLY HEAD EASTWARD OVERNIGHT. LOOK FOR
AREAS OF HEAVIER RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS FROM ABOUT FLAGSTAFF EASTWARD
DURING THE EVENING HOURS WITH PRECIPITATION DECREASING THE REMAINDER
OF THE NIGHT. ANOTHER WEATHER DISTURBANCE WILL BRUSH THE AREA ON
TUESDAY A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS WILL REMAIN IN THE FORECAST. HIGH
PRESSURE WITH DRIER AND WARMER WEATHER RETURNS BY THURSDAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
THE CURRENT STORM SYSTEM AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO MAKE
SLOW PROGRESS EASTWARD. AT 230 PM MST A COLD FRONT EXTENDED FROM OVER
THE FOUR CORNERS SOUTHWESTWARD TO ACROSS PAYSON AND THE GREATER
PHOENIX AREA. THE HEAVIEST PRECIPITATION WAS LOCATED ALONG AND JUST
BEHIND THIS COLD FRONT. DURING THE EVENING HOURS THE COLD FRONT AND
PRECIPITATION BAND WILL PROGRESS EASTWARD HEADING INTO NEW MEXICO
AROUND MIDNIGHT. DOWNGRADED THE WINTER STORM WARNING FOR PORTIONS OF
THE EASTERN MOGOLLON RIM AND WHITES MOUNTAINS TO A WINTER WEATHER
ADVISORY DUE TO MUCH LOWER STORM TOTALS ANTICIPATED.

ON TUESDAY...ONE LAST SHORTWAVE WILL SWING ACROSS ARIZONA. LOOK
LIKE ENOUGH MOISTURE, UPWARD MOTION AND INSTABILITY FOR SCATTERED
SHOWERS ACROSS THE NORTHLAND. SNOW LEVELS WILL GENERALLY RANGE FROM
5000 FEET OVER NORTHEAST ARIZONA TO NEAR 6000 FEET OVER THE WHITE
MOUNTAINS. SNOW ACCUMULATION WILL RANGE FROM A TRACE TO 2 INCHES ON
TUESDAY.

FOR WEDNESDAY AND BEYOND...LOOK FOR LINGERING SHOWER ACTIVITY OVER
FAR EASTERN ARIZONA ON WEDNESDAY AS THE LAST PIECE OF SHORTWAVE
ENERGY HEADS INTO NEW MEXICO. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD IN FROM
THE WEST ON THURSDAY AND THROUGH THE WEEKEND. A BIT WARMER EACH DAY
WITH DRY CONDITIONS AND GENERALLY CLEAR SKIES.

&&

.AVIATION...
FOR THE 00Z PACKAGE...A COLD FRONT PUSHING ACROSS THE STATE FROM
WEST TO EAST TODAY WILL CAUSE MODERATE TO HEAVY PRECIPITATION WITH
WIDESPREAD IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY.
PRECIPITATION WILL BECOME SHOWERY AND DECREASING MOST AREAS BY LATER
THIS EVENING. STRONG S-SW WIND 20-30KT G40-45KT NORTHEAST OF
MOGOLLON RIM THIS AFTERNOON BUT DECREASING SIGNIFICANTLY AFTER
SUNSET. AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR TAF AMENDMENTS.

&&

.FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 7 PM MST THIS EVENING FOR AZZ015.

WIND ADVISORY FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 5 PM MST THIS
AFTERNOON FOR AZZ010-012>014-040.

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 1 AM MST
TUESDAY FOR AZZ009-039.

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 2 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 1 AM MST
TUESDAY FOR AZZ011.

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM MST TUESDAY FOR AZZ016>018.

WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 7 PM MST THIS EVENING FOR AZZ004-
006-007.

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL TO 7 PM MST THIS EVENING FOR AZZ008.

&&

$$

PUBLIC.........MCCOLLUM
AVIATION.......KD

FOR NORTHERN ARIZONA WEATHER INFORMATION VISIT
WEATHER.GOV/FLAGSTAFF






000
FXUS65 KTWC 022145
AFDTWC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ
245 PM MST MON MAR 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE ACROSS NORTHERN ARIZONA
TONIGHT. THIS SYSTEM WILL BRING VALLEY RAIN AND MOUNTAIN SNOW TO THE
AREA TONIGHT INTO EARLY TUESDAY. A FOLLOW UP SYSTEM WILL MOVE ALONG
OR JUST SOUTH OF THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER TUESDAY NIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY AND BRING ANOTHER CHANCE OF VALLEY RAIN AND MOUNTAIN SNOW.
DRY CONDITIONS AREAWIDE AND WARMER TEMPERATURES STARTING THURSDAY
INTO THE WEEKEND.

&&

.DISCUSSION...SHOWERS EVER SO SLOWLY ARE MOVING EAST ACROSS THE
FORECAST THIS AFTERNOON. MAIN BAND WAS STILL WEST OF TUCSON WITH
RAINFALL AMOUNTS SO FAR ACROSS CENTRAL TO WESTERN PIMA COUNTY
RANGING IN THE 0.25" TO 1" RANGE WITH THE HIGHER VALUES ACROSS WERE
PIMA COUNTY NEAR AJO. SNOW LEVEL WAS AROUND 9KFT FROM TUCSON EAST
BUT WILL BE LOWERING AS THE COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO PUSH EAST
THROUGH THIS EVENING. WILL HAVE TO RELY ON CONVECTIVE BANDS AND
UPSLOPE CONDITIONS TO GET OUR SNOW TOTALS TO THE ADVISORY AND
WARNING CRITERIA FOR THE MOUNTAINS FROM NEAR TUCSON TO THE WHITES
MOUNTAINS. STRONG GUSTY WINDS OUT AHEAD OF COLD FRONT WITH WIND
ADVISORY FOR THE HIGHER TERRAIN AND COCHISE COUNTY OUT UNTIL 8 PM.
ALONG THE FRONT WIND GUSTS HAVE BEEN IN THE 40-50 MPH. THE UPPER LOW
RESPONSIBLE FOR THE RAIN AND MOUNTAIN SNOW HAS OPENED UP THIS
AFTERNOON AS IT MOVED INTO SRN CA AND IT WILL CONTINUE TO LIFT NE
ACROSS NRN AZ TONIGHT. SHOWERS WILL BE DIMINISHING AREAWIDE FROM
WEST TO EAST ALTHOUGH AREAS EAST OF TUCSON WILL HOLD ON TO SHOWERS A
BIT LONGER OVERNIGHT.

FOLLOW-UP SYSTEM...CURRENTLY BECOMING A CUT-OFF LOW OFF CENTRAL CA
COAST THIS AFTERNOON...WILL CONTINUE TO DIG SOUTH TONIGHT INTO
TUESDAY MORNING. THIS LOW WILL DIG FURTHER SOUTH TO OFF THE NRN BAJA
COAST BY LATE TUESDAY MORNING AND THEN TURN EAST ACROSS NORTHERN
BAJA TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND ALONG OR JUST SOUTH OF THE INTERNATIONAL
BORDER TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. THIS FEATURE WILL BRING ANOTHER
CHANCE OF SHOWERS TO THE AREA...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN ZONES
WITH THE BEST CHANCES BEING ALONG THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER. HAVE
INCREASED POPS FOR THIS AREA TUE NGT INTO WED BUT LATER SHIFTS MAY
NEED TO BOOST THEM UP A LITTLE MORE. NOT LOOKING AT A BIG QPF EVENT
WITH THIS FEATURE WILL AMOUNTS GENERALLY LESS A TENTH OF AN INCH.

THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...DRY WITH UPPER HIGH OVER CENTRAL/NORTHERN CA
AND WEAK TROFINESS OVER THE AREA. DAYTIME TEMPERATURES WILL BE
WARMING BOTH DAYS.

SATURDAY THRU MONDAY...REMAINING DRY WITH HIGHS RUNNING 4-8 DEGREES
ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION...VALID THRU 04/00Z.
A STORM SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO IMPACT THE AREA THRU THIS EVENING.
EXPECT SCT-BKN CLOUDS 2-6K FT AGL WITH MULTIPLE LAYERS ABV AND
IFR/MVFR CONDS OVER MTNS AND NEAR SHOWERS. WIDESPREAD SHOWERS WILL
CONTINUE TO MOVE FROM WEST TO EAST AND GRADUALLY WEAKEN ACROSS
EASTERN AREAS THIS EVENING. SURFACE COLD FRONT NOW APPROACHING KTUS
WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EAST THROUGH THE AREA AS WELL. SFC WINDS SLY
15-25 KTS WITH HIGHER GUSTS TO 40 KTS IN ADVANCE OF APPROACHING COLD
FRONT WITH MUCH LIGHTER WESTERLY WINDS BEHIND FRONT. SKY CONDITIONS
WILL GRADUALLY IMPROVE AFTER 03/06Z  FROM WEST TO EAST.
AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR TAF AMENDMENTS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...STRONG GUSTY WINDS...ESPECIALLY IN THE MOUNTAINS AND
THE LOWER ELEVATIONS S AND E OF TUCSON...WILL CONTINUE INTO THIS
EVENING BEFORE DIMINISHING. FAIRLY WIDESPREAD SHOWERS OVER PIMA AND
PINAL COUNTIES WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH EASTWARD THROUGH SE AZ AS A
COLD FRONT MOVES EAST. THE SHOWERS WILL DIMINISH TONIGHT AS THE COLD
FRONT MOVES INTO NEW MEXICO. ANOTHER WEATHER SYSTEM WILL IMPACT THE
AREA ON LATE TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY FOR ANOTHER CHANCE OF
SHOWERS ESPECIALLY NEAR THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER. DRY AND WARMER
THURSDAY ONWARD.

&&

.TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
 WINTER STORM WARNING IN EFFECT UNTIL 1 AM MST TUESDAY ABOVE 6500
  FEET FOR AZZ510-511.

 WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL TO 1 AM MST TUESDAY ABOVE
  6500 FEET FOR AZZ514.

 WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM MST THIS EVENING ABOVE 5000 FEET FOR
  AZZ512>515.

&&

$$

VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...YOUTUBE...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/TUCSON






000
FXUS65 KTWC 022145
AFDTWC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ
245 PM MST MON MAR 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE ACROSS NORTHERN ARIZONA
TONIGHT. THIS SYSTEM WILL BRING VALLEY RAIN AND MOUNTAIN SNOW TO THE
AREA TONIGHT INTO EARLY TUESDAY. A FOLLOW UP SYSTEM WILL MOVE ALONG
OR JUST SOUTH OF THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER TUESDAY NIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY AND BRING ANOTHER CHANCE OF VALLEY RAIN AND MOUNTAIN SNOW.
DRY CONDITIONS AREAWIDE AND WARMER TEMPERATURES STARTING THURSDAY
INTO THE WEEKEND.

&&

.DISCUSSION...SHOWERS EVER SO SLOWLY ARE MOVING EAST ACROSS THE
FORECAST THIS AFTERNOON. MAIN BAND WAS STILL WEST OF TUCSON WITH
RAINFALL AMOUNTS SO FAR ACROSS CENTRAL TO WESTERN PIMA COUNTY
RANGING IN THE 0.25" TO 1" RANGE WITH THE HIGHER VALUES ACROSS WERE
PIMA COUNTY NEAR AJO. SNOW LEVEL WAS AROUND 9KFT FROM TUCSON EAST
BUT WILL BE LOWERING AS THE COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO PUSH EAST
THROUGH THIS EVENING. WILL HAVE TO RELY ON CONVECTIVE BANDS AND
UPSLOPE CONDITIONS TO GET OUR SNOW TOTALS TO THE ADVISORY AND
WARNING CRITERIA FOR THE MOUNTAINS FROM NEAR TUCSON TO THE WHITES
MOUNTAINS. STRONG GUSTY WINDS OUT AHEAD OF COLD FRONT WITH WIND
ADVISORY FOR THE HIGHER TERRAIN AND COCHISE COUNTY OUT UNTIL 8 PM.
ALONG THE FRONT WIND GUSTS HAVE BEEN IN THE 40-50 MPH. THE UPPER LOW
RESPONSIBLE FOR THE RAIN AND MOUNTAIN SNOW HAS OPENED UP THIS
AFTERNOON AS IT MOVED INTO SRN CA AND IT WILL CONTINUE TO LIFT NE
ACROSS NRN AZ TONIGHT. SHOWERS WILL BE DIMINISHING AREAWIDE FROM
WEST TO EAST ALTHOUGH AREAS EAST OF TUCSON WILL HOLD ON TO SHOWERS A
BIT LONGER OVERNIGHT.

FOLLOW-UP SYSTEM...CURRENTLY BECOMING A CUT-OFF LOW OFF CENTRAL CA
COAST THIS AFTERNOON...WILL CONTINUE TO DIG SOUTH TONIGHT INTO
TUESDAY MORNING. THIS LOW WILL DIG FURTHER SOUTH TO OFF THE NRN BAJA
COAST BY LATE TUESDAY MORNING AND THEN TURN EAST ACROSS NORTHERN
BAJA TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND ALONG OR JUST SOUTH OF THE INTERNATIONAL
BORDER TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. THIS FEATURE WILL BRING ANOTHER
CHANCE OF SHOWERS TO THE AREA...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN ZONES
WITH THE BEST CHANCES BEING ALONG THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER. HAVE
INCREASED POPS FOR THIS AREA TUE NGT INTO WED BUT LATER SHIFTS MAY
NEED TO BOOST THEM UP A LITTLE MORE. NOT LOOKING AT A BIG QPF EVENT
WITH THIS FEATURE WILL AMOUNTS GENERALLY LESS A TENTH OF AN INCH.

THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...DRY WITH UPPER HIGH OVER CENTRAL/NORTHERN CA
AND WEAK TROFINESS OVER THE AREA. DAYTIME TEMPERATURES WILL BE
WARMING BOTH DAYS.

SATURDAY THRU MONDAY...REMAINING DRY WITH HIGHS RUNNING 4-8 DEGREES
ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION...VALID THRU 04/00Z.
A STORM SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO IMPACT THE AREA THRU THIS EVENING.
EXPECT SCT-BKN CLOUDS 2-6K FT AGL WITH MULTIPLE LAYERS ABV AND
IFR/MVFR CONDS OVER MTNS AND NEAR SHOWERS. WIDESPREAD SHOWERS WILL
CONTINUE TO MOVE FROM WEST TO EAST AND GRADUALLY WEAKEN ACROSS
EASTERN AREAS THIS EVENING. SURFACE COLD FRONT NOW APPROACHING KTUS
WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EAST THROUGH THE AREA AS WELL. SFC WINDS SLY
15-25 KTS WITH HIGHER GUSTS TO 40 KTS IN ADVANCE OF APPROACHING COLD
FRONT WITH MUCH LIGHTER WESTERLY WINDS BEHIND FRONT. SKY CONDITIONS
WILL GRADUALLY IMPROVE AFTER 03/06Z  FROM WEST TO EAST.
AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR TAF AMENDMENTS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...STRONG GUSTY WINDS...ESPECIALLY IN THE MOUNTAINS AND
THE LOWER ELEVATIONS S AND E OF TUCSON...WILL CONTINUE INTO THIS
EVENING BEFORE DIMINISHING. FAIRLY WIDESPREAD SHOWERS OVER PIMA AND
PINAL COUNTIES WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH EASTWARD THROUGH SE AZ AS A
COLD FRONT MOVES EAST. THE SHOWERS WILL DIMINISH TONIGHT AS THE COLD
FRONT MOVES INTO NEW MEXICO. ANOTHER WEATHER SYSTEM WILL IMPACT THE
AREA ON LATE TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY FOR ANOTHER CHANCE OF
SHOWERS ESPECIALLY NEAR THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER. DRY AND WARMER
THURSDAY ONWARD.

&&

.TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
 WINTER STORM WARNING IN EFFECT UNTIL 1 AM MST TUESDAY ABOVE 6500
  FEET FOR AZZ510-511.

 WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL TO 1 AM MST TUESDAY ABOVE
  6500 FEET FOR AZZ514.

 WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM MST THIS EVENING ABOVE 5000 FEET FOR
  AZZ512>515.

&&

$$

VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...YOUTUBE...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/TUCSON







000
FXUS65 KPSR 022125
AFDPSR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PHOENIX AZ
225 PM MST MON MAR 2 2015

...POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAIN AFFECTING SOUTH CENTRAL AZ THROUGH THE
EARLY EVENING HOURS TODAY...

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION WILL CONTINUE TO SHIFT EASTWARD THIS
AFTERNOON AND INTO THE EVENING HOURS TONIGHT. PERIODS OF MODERATE TO
HEAVY RAIN ARE ANTICIPATED ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL ARIZONA...ESPECIALLY
OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN AND FOOTHILL LOCATIONS NORTH AND EAST OF
CENTRAL PHOENIX. THERE WILL ALSO BE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS
AS WELL THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. THERE WILL ALSO BE A
LINGERING SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS OVER SOUTH CENTRAL ARIZONA
TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY AS THE SYSTEM SLOWLY EXITS TO THE EAST.
COOLER TEMPERATURES WILL ACCOMPANY THIS SYSTEM WITH BELOW NORMAL
READINGS EXPECTED THROUGH MID WEEK. A RETURN TO ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES IS LIKELY BY THURSDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE
DESERT SOUTHWEST.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
A RATHER COMPLICATED UPPER TROF ALONG THE WEST COAST CONTINUED TO
AFFECT THE DESERT SOUTHWEST...INCLUDING SERN CA AND ARIZONA...EARLY
THIS AFTERNOON. UPPER LOW CENTER CONTINUED TO SPIN ALONG THE FAR
SERN CA COAST...WHILE THE MAIN COLD FRONTAL BAND PUSHED EAST AND
INTO EAST-CENTRAL ARIZONA AT 130 PM. FRONT WAS MOVING PAST CENTRAL
PHOENIX AND INTO SOUTHERN GILA COUNTY...BUT WIDESPREAD SHOWERS
CONTINUED ACROSS MOST OF MARICOPA COUNTY AS WELL AS SOUTHERN GILA
COUNTY. RADAR AND GAGE REPORTS INDICATED THAT MOST RAINFALL TOTALS
SINCE NOON WERE LESS THAN ONE THIRD OF AN INCH...AND IN FACT MOST OF
THE GAGES IN THE MARICOPA COUNTY FLOOD CONTROL DISTRICT NETWORK
MEASURED WELL BELOW ONE QUARTER INCH SINCE 1230 PM. SO FAR WE HAVE
NOT SEEN THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT ACROSS THE CENTRAL DESERTS...BUT
AN ISOLATED STORM IS POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON AND INTO THE EARLY
EVENING...AND ANY STORM THAT FORMS WILL LEAD TO LOCALLY MODERATE OR
HEAVY RAINFALL. AS A RESULT...WE WILL CONTINUE THE FLOOD WATCH FOR
MARICOPA COUNTY EASTWARD...AND WE HAVE DROPPED THE WATCH FOR ALL
AREAS WEST OF MARICOPA COUNTY.

FOR THE REST OF THIS AFTERNOON...WE MAY SEE A FEW SHOWERS OR EVEN A
THUNDERSTORM REDEVELOP OVER PORTIONS OF SERN AZ AS CONVECTION SPILLS
OVER THE COASTAL RANGES...AND MOVES INLAND AND AHEAD OF THE
WEAKENING UPPER LOW ALONG THE FAR SERN CA COAST. WE DO NOT EXPECT
SIGNIFICANT PRECIP WITH ANY SHOWERS/STORMS THAT MOVE THROUGH SERN CA
HOWEVER...BUT SOME SPOTS COULD SEE AMOUNTS IN EXCESS OF ONE QUARTER
INCH.

BY EARLY THIS EVENING...THE MAIN FOCUS OF THIS STORM SYSTEM...THE
FRONTAL BAND AND ASSOCIATED RAIN/RAIN SHOWER SHIELD...WILL PUSH EAST
AND INTO FAR EASTERN AZ AND NEW MEXICO. AT THE SAME TIME THE LOW
ALONG THE SERN CA COAST WILL WEAKEN AND BE MOVED INLAND AS A KICKER
LOW DROPS SOUTH ALONG THE CENTRAL CA COAST. AS SUCH THE CHANCES FOR
MEASURABLE PRECIP WILL DROP OFF SIGNIFICANTLY THIS EVENING...INTO
THE CHANCE CATEGORY OVER THE CENTRAL DESERTS WITH LINGERING LIKELY
POPS ACROSS SRN GILA COUNTY. AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT WE EXPECT MAINLY
SINGLE DIGIT POPS ACROSS THE SWRN AZ DESERTS AS WELL AS SERN CA.
MODELS ARE CONSISTENT IN CALLING FOR THIS KICKER LOW TO DROP
SOUTHEAST TOWARDS THE NRN BAJA CA COAST TONIGHT...THEN SLOWLY DRIFT
EAST AND PASS BY ARIZONA TO THE SOUTH TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. AS THE
LOW PASSES BY...DYNAMICS OVER SRN AZ BECOME WEAK...BUT SIGNIFICANT
LOW/MID LEVEL MOISTURE REMAINS IN PLACE AND AS SUCH WE WILL CONTINUE
A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR INSTABILITY SHOWERS OVER SOUTH CENTRAL AZ
TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT. IN FACT...INSTABILITY LOOKS TO BE A BIT
BETTER ON TUESDAY WITH LI VALUES GOING WEAKLY NEGATIVE AND THUS WE
HAVE A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR THUNDER IN THE FORECAST ACROSS SOUTH
CENTRAL AZ ON TUESDAY. BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THE ONLY THREAT FOR
PRECIP WILL BE OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN EAST OF PHOENIX...AND SKIES
WILL BECOME MOSTLY SUNNY FROM PHOENIX WESTWARD INTO SERN CA. TEMPS
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY WILLS STEADILY WARM BUT WILL REMAIN BELOW
SEASONAL NORMALS.

ONE ISSUE WE WILL CONTEND WITH TONIGHT WILL BE FOG POTENTIAL ACROSS
SOUTH CENTRAL ARIZONA. MANY LOCATIONS WILL SEE AT LEAST MODERATE
RAINFALL TOTALS TODAY...AND HUMIDITY LEVELS WILL REMAIN HIGH
OVERNIGHT. HOWEVER...WE EXPECT LINGERING LOW/MID CLOUD DECKS TONIGHT
INTO TUESDAY...REDUCING RADITIONAL COOLING POTENTIAL. ALSO...
FORECAST SOUNDINGS ARE NOT CLASSICAL FOG SOUNDINGS. WINDS WILL BE
LIGHT BUT SHOULD NOT BE CALM FOR EXTENDED PERIODS. THUS...THERE MAY
BE PATCHY FOG WITH VISIBILITY DOWN BELOW 5 MILES AT TIMES BUT WE DO
NOT EXPECT SIGNIFICANT DENSE FOG. AS A COMPROMISE WE ADDED PATCHY
FOG TO OUR FORECAST ZONES EAST OF THE LOWER CO RIVER TONIGHT.

FOR THURSDAY...A DRYING AND SUBSIDENT NORTHERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL SET
UP ACROSS THE AREA AS HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT STARTS TO BUILD ALONG THE
CA COAST. THIS WILL LEADY TO SUNNY SKIES...AND CONTINUED WARMING
WITH HIGH TEMPS REACHING INTO THE LOW TO MID 70S...AND TOWARDS
SEASONAL NORMALS.

FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND...
A WARMING TREND IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THIS PERIOD UNDER
MAINLY CLEAR SKIES AS HIGH PRESSURE STRENGTHENS OVER THE
REGION...WITH A DECENT CHANCE FOR HIGHS IN THE 80S ACROSS THE LOWER
DESERTS BY THE WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION...
SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA INCLUDING KPHX...KIWA AND KSDL...
WIDESPREAD IMPACTS INCLUDING LOW CIGS...RAIN SHOWERS...LOWERED
VSBY...AND GUSTY WIND SHIFTS WILL BE COMMON ACROSS CNTRL ARIZONA
TERMINALS THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. CIGS HAVE ALREADY STARTED LOWERING
BLO 6K FT WITH MTN OBSCURATION PREVAILING THROUGH THE DAY.
CONFIDENCE IS ONLY MODEST IN TIMING THE HEAVIEST SQUALLS INTO
KPHX...THOUGH MOST HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS SUGGEST A COUPLE HOURS
AROUND 18Z WITH PREVAILING MVFR CONDITIONS ALONG WITH A DISTINCT
WIND SHIFT. SOME BRIEF PERIODS OF IFR MAY ALSO BE POSSIBLE IN THE
HEAVIEST SHOWERS...THOUGH CONFIDENCE AND TEMPORAL DURATION TOO LOW
TO MENTION IN THIS TAF PACKAGE. CONFIDENCE IS VERY LOW BEYOND
00Z...AND SOME ADDITIONAL SCT SHRA AND CIGS FALLING BACK BLO 6K FT
MAY BE POSSIBLE.

SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA AND SOUTHWEST ARIZONA INCLUDING KIPL AND KBLH...
PREVAILING RAIN WILL MOVE EAST OF TERMINAL SITES BY 15Z...HOWEVER
LINGER LOW LEVEL MOISTURE HAS ALLOWED PATCHY MVFR TO LIFR CIGS TO
DEVELOP. NOT A LOT OF CONFIDENCE IN HOW LONG THESE LOWER CATEGORIES
WILL PERSIST...THOUGH MODELS SUGGEST ONLY A BRIEF TIME. WITH THE
UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM MOVING THROUGH SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA THIS
AFTERNOON...CONFIDENCE IS BETTER THAN GUSTY WEST WINDS WILL DEVELOP
WITH SOME SHRA REDEVELOPMENT. CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE QUICKLY AFTER
SUNSET.


AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDED TAFS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...
STRONG HIGH PRESSURE AND MUCH DRIER CONDITIONS WILL MOVE BACK INTO
THE DISTRICT DURING THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK. TEMPERATURES WILL
REBOUND BACK INTO A NORMAL TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL RANGE...WHILE
AFTERNOON HUMIDITY LEVELS RETURN INTO A 15 TO 25 PERCENT RANGE.
OVERNIGHT RECOVERY WILL BE GOOD. PERIODS OF GUSTY NORTH WINDS DOWN
THE COLORADO RIVER VALLEY WILL BE LIKELY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...WHILE
OCCASIONAL PERIODS OF STRONGER EASTERLY WINDS OVER RIDGE TOPS OF
CENTRAL ARIZONA MAY BE COMMON LATE IN THE WEEK.

&&

.PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

AZ...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH 8 PM TODAY AZZ022>024.

CA...NONE.

&&

$$

VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/PHOENIX

DISCUSSION...CB/PERCHA
AVIATION...MO
FIRE WEATHER...MO













000
FXUS65 KPSR 022125
AFDPSR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PHOENIX AZ
225 PM MST MON MAR 2 2015

...POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAIN AFFECTING SOUTH CENTRAL AZ THROUGH THE
EARLY EVENING HOURS TODAY...

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION WILL CONTINUE TO SHIFT EASTWARD THIS
AFTERNOON AND INTO THE EVENING HOURS TONIGHT. PERIODS OF MODERATE TO
HEAVY RAIN ARE ANTICIPATED ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL ARIZONA...ESPECIALLY
OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN AND FOOTHILL LOCATIONS NORTH AND EAST OF
CENTRAL PHOENIX. THERE WILL ALSO BE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS
AS WELL THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. THERE WILL ALSO BE A
LINGERING SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS OVER SOUTH CENTRAL ARIZONA
TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY AS THE SYSTEM SLOWLY EXITS TO THE EAST.
COOLER TEMPERATURES WILL ACCOMPANY THIS SYSTEM WITH BELOW NORMAL
READINGS EXPECTED THROUGH MID WEEK. A RETURN TO ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES IS LIKELY BY THURSDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE
DESERT SOUTHWEST.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
A RATHER COMPLICATED UPPER TROF ALONG THE WEST COAST CONTINUED TO
AFFECT THE DESERT SOUTHWEST...INCLUDING SERN CA AND ARIZONA...EARLY
THIS AFTERNOON. UPPER LOW CENTER CONTINUED TO SPIN ALONG THE FAR
SERN CA COAST...WHILE THE MAIN COLD FRONTAL BAND PUSHED EAST AND
INTO EAST-CENTRAL ARIZONA AT 130 PM. FRONT WAS MOVING PAST CENTRAL
PHOENIX AND INTO SOUTHERN GILA COUNTY...BUT WIDESPREAD SHOWERS
CONTINUED ACROSS MOST OF MARICOPA COUNTY AS WELL AS SOUTHERN GILA
COUNTY. RADAR AND GAGE REPORTS INDICATED THAT MOST RAINFALL TOTALS
SINCE NOON WERE LESS THAN ONE THIRD OF AN INCH...AND IN FACT MOST OF
THE GAGES IN THE MARICOPA COUNTY FLOOD CONTROL DISTRICT NETWORK
MEASURED WELL BELOW ONE QUARTER INCH SINCE 1230 PM. SO FAR WE HAVE
NOT SEEN THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT ACROSS THE CENTRAL DESERTS...BUT
AN ISOLATED STORM IS POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON AND INTO THE EARLY
EVENING...AND ANY STORM THAT FORMS WILL LEAD TO LOCALLY MODERATE OR
HEAVY RAINFALL. AS A RESULT...WE WILL CONTINUE THE FLOOD WATCH FOR
MARICOPA COUNTY EASTWARD...AND WE HAVE DROPPED THE WATCH FOR ALL
AREAS WEST OF MARICOPA COUNTY.

FOR THE REST OF THIS AFTERNOON...WE MAY SEE A FEW SHOWERS OR EVEN A
THUNDERSTORM REDEVELOP OVER PORTIONS OF SERN AZ AS CONVECTION SPILLS
OVER THE COASTAL RANGES...AND MOVES INLAND AND AHEAD OF THE
WEAKENING UPPER LOW ALONG THE FAR SERN CA COAST. WE DO NOT EXPECT
SIGNIFICANT PRECIP WITH ANY SHOWERS/STORMS THAT MOVE THROUGH SERN CA
HOWEVER...BUT SOME SPOTS COULD SEE AMOUNTS IN EXCESS OF ONE QUARTER
INCH.

BY EARLY THIS EVENING...THE MAIN FOCUS OF THIS STORM SYSTEM...THE
FRONTAL BAND AND ASSOCIATED RAIN/RAIN SHOWER SHIELD...WILL PUSH EAST
AND INTO FAR EASTERN AZ AND NEW MEXICO. AT THE SAME TIME THE LOW
ALONG THE SERN CA COAST WILL WEAKEN AND BE MOVED INLAND AS A KICKER
LOW DROPS SOUTH ALONG THE CENTRAL CA COAST. AS SUCH THE CHANCES FOR
MEASURABLE PRECIP WILL DROP OFF SIGNIFICANTLY THIS EVENING...INTO
THE CHANCE CATEGORY OVER THE CENTRAL DESERTS WITH LINGERING LIKELY
POPS ACROSS SRN GILA COUNTY. AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT WE EXPECT MAINLY
SINGLE DIGIT POPS ACROSS THE SWRN AZ DESERTS AS WELL AS SERN CA.
MODELS ARE CONSISTENT IN CALLING FOR THIS KICKER LOW TO DROP
SOUTHEAST TOWARDS THE NRN BAJA CA COAST TONIGHT...THEN SLOWLY DRIFT
EAST AND PASS BY ARIZONA TO THE SOUTH TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. AS THE
LOW PASSES BY...DYNAMICS OVER SRN AZ BECOME WEAK...BUT SIGNIFICANT
LOW/MID LEVEL MOISTURE REMAINS IN PLACE AND AS SUCH WE WILL CONTINUE
A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR INSTABILITY SHOWERS OVER SOUTH CENTRAL AZ
TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT. IN FACT...INSTABILITY LOOKS TO BE A BIT
BETTER ON TUESDAY WITH LI VALUES GOING WEAKLY NEGATIVE AND THUS WE
HAVE A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR THUNDER IN THE FORECAST ACROSS SOUTH
CENTRAL AZ ON TUESDAY. BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THE ONLY THREAT FOR
PRECIP WILL BE OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN EAST OF PHOENIX...AND SKIES
WILL BECOME MOSTLY SUNNY FROM PHOENIX WESTWARD INTO SERN CA. TEMPS
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY WILLS STEADILY WARM BUT WILL REMAIN BELOW
SEASONAL NORMALS.

ONE ISSUE WE WILL CONTEND WITH TONIGHT WILL BE FOG POTENTIAL ACROSS
SOUTH CENTRAL ARIZONA. MANY LOCATIONS WILL SEE AT LEAST MODERATE
RAINFALL TOTALS TODAY...AND HUMIDITY LEVELS WILL REMAIN HIGH
OVERNIGHT. HOWEVER...WE EXPECT LINGERING LOW/MID CLOUD DECKS TONIGHT
INTO TUESDAY...REDUCING RADITIONAL COOLING POTENTIAL. ALSO...
FORECAST SOUNDINGS ARE NOT CLASSICAL FOG SOUNDINGS. WINDS WILL BE
LIGHT BUT SHOULD NOT BE CALM FOR EXTENDED PERIODS. THUS...THERE MAY
BE PATCHY FOG WITH VISIBILITY DOWN BELOW 5 MILES AT TIMES BUT WE DO
NOT EXPECT SIGNIFICANT DENSE FOG. AS A COMPROMISE WE ADDED PATCHY
FOG TO OUR FORECAST ZONES EAST OF THE LOWER CO RIVER TONIGHT.

FOR THURSDAY...A DRYING AND SUBSIDENT NORTHERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL SET
UP ACROSS THE AREA AS HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT STARTS TO BUILD ALONG THE
CA COAST. THIS WILL LEADY TO SUNNY SKIES...AND CONTINUED WARMING
WITH HIGH TEMPS REACHING INTO THE LOW TO MID 70S...AND TOWARDS
SEASONAL NORMALS.

FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND...
A WARMING TREND IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THIS PERIOD UNDER
MAINLY CLEAR SKIES AS HIGH PRESSURE STRENGTHENS OVER THE
REGION...WITH A DECENT CHANCE FOR HIGHS IN THE 80S ACROSS THE LOWER
DESERTS BY THE WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION...
SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA INCLUDING KPHX...KIWA AND KSDL...
WIDESPREAD IMPACTS INCLUDING LOW CIGS...RAIN SHOWERS...LOWERED
VSBY...AND GUSTY WIND SHIFTS WILL BE COMMON ACROSS CNTRL ARIZONA
TERMINALS THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. CIGS HAVE ALREADY STARTED LOWERING
BLO 6K FT WITH MTN OBSCURATION PREVAILING THROUGH THE DAY.
CONFIDENCE IS ONLY MODEST IN TIMING THE HEAVIEST SQUALLS INTO
KPHX...THOUGH MOST HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS SUGGEST A COUPLE HOURS
AROUND 18Z WITH PREVAILING MVFR CONDITIONS ALONG WITH A DISTINCT
WIND SHIFT. SOME BRIEF PERIODS OF IFR MAY ALSO BE POSSIBLE IN THE
HEAVIEST SHOWERS...THOUGH CONFIDENCE AND TEMPORAL DURATION TOO LOW
TO MENTION IN THIS TAF PACKAGE. CONFIDENCE IS VERY LOW BEYOND
00Z...AND SOME ADDITIONAL SCT SHRA AND CIGS FALLING BACK BLO 6K FT
MAY BE POSSIBLE.

SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA AND SOUTHWEST ARIZONA INCLUDING KIPL AND KBLH...
PREVAILING RAIN WILL MOVE EAST OF TERMINAL SITES BY 15Z...HOWEVER
LINGER LOW LEVEL MOISTURE HAS ALLOWED PATCHY MVFR TO LIFR CIGS TO
DEVELOP. NOT A LOT OF CONFIDENCE IN HOW LONG THESE LOWER CATEGORIES
WILL PERSIST...THOUGH MODELS SUGGEST ONLY A BRIEF TIME. WITH THE
UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM MOVING THROUGH SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA THIS
AFTERNOON...CONFIDENCE IS BETTER THAN GUSTY WEST WINDS WILL DEVELOP
WITH SOME SHRA REDEVELOPMENT. CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE QUICKLY AFTER
SUNSET.


AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDED TAFS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...
STRONG HIGH PRESSURE AND MUCH DRIER CONDITIONS WILL MOVE BACK INTO
THE DISTRICT DURING THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK. TEMPERATURES WILL
REBOUND BACK INTO A NORMAL TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL RANGE...WHILE
AFTERNOON HUMIDITY LEVELS RETURN INTO A 15 TO 25 PERCENT RANGE.
OVERNIGHT RECOVERY WILL BE GOOD. PERIODS OF GUSTY NORTH WINDS DOWN
THE COLORADO RIVER VALLEY WILL BE LIKELY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...WHILE
OCCASIONAL PERIODS OF STRONGER EASTERLY WINDS OVER RIDGE TOPS OF
CENTRAL ARIZONA MAY BE COMMON LATE IN THE WEEK.

&&

.PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

AZ...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH 8 PM TODAY AZZ022>024.

CA...NONE.

&&

$$

VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/PHOENIX

DISCUSSION...CB/PERCHA
AVIATION...MO
FIRE WEATHER...MO












000
FXUS65 KTWC 021626
AFDTWC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ
925 AM MST MON MAR 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...A STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM NEAR CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN
CALIFORNIA WILL BRING WINDY CONDITIONS AS WELL AS PERIODS OF VALLEY
RAIN AND MOUNTAIN SNOW BY MID DAY TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT.
PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL LESSEN CONSIDERABLY FOR MIDWEEK WITH DRY
CONDITIONS AREAWIDE AND WARMER TEMPERATURES BY THE END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...9 AM WATER VAPOR IMAGERY THIS MORNING SHOWED THE UPPER
LOW JUST OFF THE SRN CA COAST. BASED ON TRENDS THE CENTER HAS
STOPPED DIGGING S AND IS MOVING ENE. IT WILL OPEN UP AS IT MOVES ENE
ACROSS SRN CA THIS MORNING AND UP INTO NRN AZ THIS AFTERNOON.
REGIONAL DOPPLER RADARS PAINTED SHOWERS ACROSS WRN AZ MOVING SLOWLY
TO THE E. AREAS OF MODERATE RAIN ARE IN THIS BAND WITH AJO RECORDING
0.35" BETWEEN 8 AND 9 AM. BASED ON CURRENT MOVEMENT AND HRRR DATA
THE LEADING EDGE OF THIS BAND OF SHOWERS WILL BE MOVING INTO SE
PINAL/ERN PIMA/SANTA CRUZ COUNTY BETWEEN 1 AND 3 PM...GIVE OR TAKE
AN HOUR. THE CENTRAL TO NE MOUNTAINS WILL START A LITTLE EARLIER DUE
TO THE STRONG UPSLOPE FLOW. SNOW LEVELS WILL BE CRASHING THIS
AFTERNOON...DOWN TO AROUND 6500 FEET WITH SNOW PICKING UP IN
INTENSITY. WILL MAINTAIN CURRENT WINTER STORM FOR THE WHITES AND
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORIES PINALENO/CATALINA/RINCON MTNS THAT GO INTO
EFFECT AFTER 11 AM. WIND ALSO AN ISSUE TODAY ESPECIALLY IN THE
MOUNTAINS AND COCHISE COUNTY WHERE A WIND ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT.
HAVE SEE SOME WIND GUSTS IN THE MOUNTAINS IN THE 30-45 MPH RANGE
THIS MORNING. SHOWER ACTIVITY CONTINUING THIS EVENING ACROSS ERN
ZONES BEFORE ENDING EARLY TUESDAY MORNING. MORE ON THE REST OF THE
FORECAST IN THE AFTERNOON DISCUSSION.

&&

.AVIATION...VALID THRU 03/12Z.
AN APPROACHING STORM SYSTEM WILL BE IMPACTING THE AREA THRU THIS
EVENING. EXPECT SCT CUMULUS NEAR 4-6K FT AGL WITH BKN-OVC LAYERS ABV
THROUGH 25K FT...THEN AFT 02/18Z BECOMING BKN-OVC 4-6K FT WITH
MULTIPLE LAYERS ABV AND IFR/MVFR CONDS OVER MTNS AND NEAR SHOWERS.
ISOLD SHOWERS THIS MORNING WILL BECOME WIDESPREAD THIS AFTERNOON.
CLOUDS AND SHOWERS DIMINISHING FROM THE WEST BEHIND THE COLD FRONT
WHICH WILL BE NEAR KTUS 02/23Z AND KDUG NEAR 03/05Z. SFC WINDS S
8-16 KTS THEN INCREASING TO 15-25 KTS WITH HIGHER GUSTS TO 40 KTS IN
ADVANCE OF APPROACHING COLD FRONT. STRONG SOUTHERLY JET TODAY WITH
WINDS 30-50 KTS 5-10K FT MSL. AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR
TAF AMENDMENTS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...STRONG GUSTY WINDS...ESPECIALLY IN THE MOUNTAINS AND
THE LOWER ELEVATIONS S AND E OF TUCSON...WILL CONTINUE INTO THIS
EVENING BEFORE DIMINISHING. SHOWERS OVER WESTERN PIMA COUNTY THIS
MORNING WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH EAST ACROSS SE AZ AS A COLD FRONT
MOVES EAST. THE SHOWERS WILL DIMINISH TONIGHT AS THE COLD FRONT
MOVES INTO NEW MEXICO. ANOTHER WEATHER SYSTEM WILL IMPACT THE AREA
ON WEDNESDAY FOR ANOTHER CHANCE OF SHOWERS. DRY AND WARMER THURSDAY
ONWARD.

&&

.TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
 WINTER STORM WARNING 11 AM MST THIS MORNING TO 1 AM MST TUESDAY
  ABOVE 6500 FEET FOR AZZ510-511.

 WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY 11 AM MST THIS MORNING TO 1 AM MST
  TUESDAY ABOVE 6500 FEET FOR AZZ514.

 WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM MST THIS EVENING ABOVE 5000 FEET FOR
  AZZ512>515.

&&

$$

VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...YOUTUBE...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/TUCSON







000
FXUS65 KPSR 021626
AFDPSR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PHOENIX AZ
925 AM MST MON MAR 2 2015

...POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAIN AFFECTING THE SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH
CENTRAL AZ DESERTS THROUGH LATE TODAY...

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION WILL EXPAND FROM SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA INTO
ARIZONA TODAY...AND WILL SLOWLY SHIFT EASTWARD DURING THE COURSE OF
THE DAY. PERIODS OF MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN ARE ANTICIPATED...
ESPECIALLY OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN AND FOOTHILL LOCATIONS OF SOUTH
CENTRAL ARIZONA. THERE WILL ALSO BE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS
AS WELL...MAINLY DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING HOURS.
COOLER TEMPERATURES WILL ALSO ACCOMPANY THIS SYSTEM WITH BELOW
NORMAL READINGS EXPECTED FROM TODAY THROUGH MID WEEK. A RETURN TO
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES IS LIKELY BY LATE WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
A WET PACIFIC LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM CONTINUED TO BRING WIDESPREAD RAIN
AND RAIN SHOWERS TO THE DESERT SOUTHWEST THIS MORNING...ESPECIALLY
IN THE VICINITY OF THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WHICH WAS PUSHING EACH
ACROSS THE CENTRAL DESERTS AS OF 8 AM. MAIN UPPER LOW CENTER WAS
SPINNING ALONG OR JUST OFF THE FAR SERN CA COAST THIS MORNING...AND
THERE WERE A COUPLE LIGHTNING STRIKES NOTED JUST OFFSHORE UNDER THE
UPPER COLD POOL. WIDESPREAD RAIN/RAIN SHOWERS WERE PRESENT ON RADAR
AT 8 AM...MAINLY EAST OF THE LOWER CO RIVER VALLEY OVER EASTERN YUMA
COUNTY AND WEST/CENTRAL MARICOPA COUNTY. AS THE FRONT MOVES EAST
ACROSS THE CENTRAL DESERTS THIS MORNING...RAIN CHANCES WILL APPROACH
100 PERCENT ACROSS MUCH OF THE GREATER PHOENIX AREA AND BY AFTERNOON
MOST OF SOUTH CENTRAL AZ WILL SEE RAIN TOTALS IN EXCESS OF ONE
QUARTER INCH. HIGHER RAINFALL TOTALS ARE LIKELY IN THE
FOOTHILL/HIGHER TERRAIN AREAS TO THE NORTH AND EAST OF CENTRAL
PHOENIX...WITH PEAK TOTALS RANGING FROM 0.75 INCHES TO SLIGHTLY OVER
ONE INCH. THIS SYSTEM LOOKS TO BE RATHER DYNAMIC...AIDED BY A 140KT
UPPER JET MOVING NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS CENTRAL AZ THIS
AFTERNOON...PUTTING MUCH OF SOUTH CENTRAL AZ UNDER THE FAVORED
RIGHT-REAR QUADRANT FOR ENHANCED LIFT. RH/OMEGA CROSS SECTIONS SHOW
DEEP UPWARD MOTION COMBINED WITH NEAR SATURATED CONDITIONS...AND
THUS WE HAVE NEARLY 100 PERCENT CHANCES FOR RAIN OVER THE DESERTS
TODAY. OF COURSE...WITH THE SHOWERS AND CLOUDS...HIGH TEMPS WILL
FALL INTO UPPER 50S TO LOW 60S THIS AFTERNOON OVER THE LOWER
DESERTS...READINGS THAT ARE OVER 10 DEGREES BELOW SEASONAL NORMALS.

BASED ON RADAR AND SATELLITE TRENDS...THREAT FOR SIGNIFICANT AREAL
FLOODING WEST OF THE LOWER CO RIVER IS ALMOST OVER AND THE AREAL
FLOOD WATCH WILL NO LONGER BE NEEDED IN THAT AREA. OTHERWISE WE WILL
KEEP THE AREAL FLOOD WATCH GOING THRU AT LEAST 5 PM FOR THE
CENTRAL/SOUTH CENTRAL ZONES. ALTHOUGH INSTABILITY IS NOT EXCESSIVE
TODAY...WITH LIFTED INDICES NEAR ZERO AND CAPE VALUES MOSTLY LESS
THAN 200 J/KG...SHOULD A STORM FORM THE STRONG DYNAMICS WILL LIKELY
INCREASE THE STORM INTENSITY AND ASSOCIATED RAINFALL. THUS...THREAT
FOR AREAL FLOODING IS STILL THERE AND THE WATCH WILL CONTINUE.

.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...

TODAY AND TONIGHT...
THE WELL-ADVERTISED UPPER-LEVEL LOW CENTER...THAT HAS BEEN DROPPING
SOUTHWARD ALONG THE WEST COAST OVER THE LAST FEW DAYS...IS FINALLY
BEGINNING TO MOVE OFF TO THE EAST...INTO SOUTHERN CA THIS MORNING AS
THE LONG-AWAITED UPSTREAM KICKER...MOVES SOUTHWARD ACROSS NORTHERN
CA TOWARDS THIS LOW CENTER. THIS SYSTEM...WHICH BROUGHT RAINFALL
AMOUNTS RANGING FROM 0.25 INCH TO JUST OVER 1.00 INCH TO MUCH OF SE
CA YESTERDAY AND LAST NIGHT...WHICH WAS FORECAST WELL BY THE GFS
MODEL OUTPUT...IS EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO WESTERN ARIZONA THIS
MORNING...THEN ACROSS SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING.
NOW THAT THE MAIN UPPER LOW IS FINALLY SHIFTING TO THE EAST...THE
BAROCLINIC LEAF AND ASSOCIATED AREA OF RAINFALL IS ALSO MOVING INTO
EXTREME WESTERN ARIZONA AS OF THIS HOUR...BRINGING LIGHT TO MODERATE
RAINFALL TO PARTS OF YUMA AND LA PAZ COUNTY. THE LATEST GFS AND HRRR
HI-RES MODELS ARE NOW IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE TIMING OF THIS SYSTEM
AS IT CONTINUES TO MOVE EASTWARD ACROSS AZ TODAY...WITH BOTH OF THEM
BRINGING RAINFALL TO THE GREATER PHX AREA AROUND DAYBREAK/DURING THE
MORNING COMMUTE...THEN INTO THE EASTERNMOST PORTION OF OUR CWA
(SOUTHERN GILA COUNTY) BY EARLY AFTERNOON.

ALTHOUGH THIS HAS TURNED INTO A FAIRLY PROGRESSIVE SYSTEM (AFTER A
DELAYED ARRIVAL)...IT STILL LOOKS LIKE A FAIRLY ROBUST SYSTEM...AND
IT IS STILL EXPECTED TO BRING LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN TO SOUTH-CENTRAL
ARIZONA TODAY...ESPECIALLY OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN NORTH AND EAST OF
PHOENIX. THIS IS DUE TO THE FACT THAT A PLUME OF VERY MOIST
AIR...WITH PWATS AROUND ONE INCH IS EXPECTED TO STREAM NORTH OVER
THE REGION TODAY ALONG AND JUST AHEAD OF THE MAIN SURFACE
FRONT/BAROCLINIC ZONE. THIS DEEP MOISTURE...COMBINED WITH GOOD
BAROCLINICITY...STRONG LOW-LEVEL UPSLOPE SOUTHERLY FLOW (850MB WINDS
IN THE 30-40KT RANGE)...AND INFLUENCE FROM THE RIGHT-ENTRANCE REGION
OF THE JET IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE A RATHER SOLID BAND OF
MODERATE-HEAVY RAINFALL DURING ITS PASSAGE ACROSS SOUTH-CENTRAL
ARIZONA. ALSO...EVEN THOUGH THERE IS NOW A WHOLE LOT OF CAPE IN THE
FORECAST SOUNDINGS (A COUPLE HUNDRED JOULES/KG AT MOST)...THERE
APPEARS TO BE ENOUGH LIFT TO TRIGGER A FEW EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS
THIS AFTERNOON AS THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH. THE COMBINATION OF THE
GENERAL RAINFALL...RANGING FROM AROUND 1/2 INCH OVER WESTERN
MARICOPA COUNTY TO AS MUCH AS 2.00 INCHES IN THE MOST FAVORED
LOCATIONS OVER EXTREME NORTH AND NORTHEAST MARICOPA COUNTY...WITH
THESE HEAVIER SHOWERS...WILL LIKELY PRODUCE AT LEAST SOME LOCAL
FLOODING PROBLEMS IN OUR WASHES...HIGHWAY DIPS...AND LOW-LYING
AREAS. THERE COULD ALSO BE SOME RISES IN SOME OF OUR SMALLER CREEKS
AND STREAMS...ESPECIALLY OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN. SNOWFALL...IF
ANY...IS STILL EXPECTED TO BE CONFINED TO OUR HIGHEST PEAKS...WHERE
A DUSTING TO PERHAPS AN INCH COULD FALL BEFORE THE PRECIP ENDS THIS
EVENING. ON THE OTHER HAND...MUCH GREATER SNOWFALL AMOUNTS ARE
EXPECTED FURTHER NORTH AND EAST...FROM THE FLAGSTAFF AREA EAST
ACROSS THE RIM COUNTY INTO THE WHITE MTNS.

IT NOW APPEARS THAT THE RAINFALL SHOULD DIMINISH RATHER RAPIDLY THIS
EVENING FROM WEST TO EAST AS THE MAIN UPPER TROF MOVES OFF TO THE
EAST AND THE LOW-LEVEL SOUTHERLY JET RAPIDLY BREAKS DOWN AND SHIFTS
TO A MUCH LIGHTER WESTERLY FLOW...WITH JUST A FEW LEFT-OVER
SPRINKLES OR LIGHT SHOWERS REMAINING BY LATE TONIGHT...MAINLY OVER
SOUTHERN GILA COUNTY. TEMPERATURES TODAY ARE EXPECTED TO BE MUCH
COOLER THAN WHAT WE SAW ON SUNDAY...WITH MANY LOWER DESERT LOCATIONS
ACROSS SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA STAYING DOWN IN THE 50S THROUGH MUCH OF
THE DAY. LOWS TONIGHT ARE EXPECTED TO FALL INTO THE 40S AT MOST
LOWER DESERT LOCATIONS...WHICH IS NOW A FEW DEGREES BELOW NORMAL FOR
THIS TIME OF YEAR.

TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...
A MUCH DRIER WEATHER REGIME IS EXPECTED AS NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT
BECOMES ESTABLISHED ACROSS THE REGION...WITH JUST A FEW SHOWERS
POSSIBLE FROM TIME-TO-TIME OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN EAST OF
PHOENIX...AS WEAK SHORTWAVES EMBEDDED IN THIS NW FLOW MOVE ACROSS
EXTREME EASTERN AZ. TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO MAKE A SLOW REBOUND
AS 500MB HEIGHTS RISE...WITH HIGHS RETURNING TO NEAR-NORMAL VALUES
BY THURSDAY.

FRIDAY INTO NEXT WEEKEND...
A WARMING TREND IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THIS PERIOD UNDER
MAINLY CLEAR SKIES AS HIGH PRESSURE STRENGTHENS OVER THE
REGION...WITH A DECENT CHANCE FOR HIGHS IN THE 80S ACROSS THE LOWER
DESERTS BY NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION...
SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA INCLUDING KPHX...KIWA AND KSDL...
WIDESPREAD IMPACTS INCLUDING LOW CIGS...RAIN SHOWERS...LOWERED
VSBY...AND GUSTY WIND SHIFTS WILL BE COMMON ACROSS CNTRL ARIZONA
TERMINALS THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. CIGS HAVE ALREADY STARTED LOWERING
BLO 6K FT WITH MTN OBSCURATION PREVAILING THROUGH THE DAY.
CONFIDENCE IS ONLY MODEST IN TIMING THE HEAVIEST SQUALLS INTO
KPHX...THOUGH MOST HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS SUGGEST A COUPLE HOURS
AROUND 18Z WITH PREVAILING MVFR CONDITIONS ALONG WITH A DISTINCT
WIND SHIFT. SOME BRIEF PERIODS OF IFR MAY ALSO BE POSSIBLE IN THE
HEAVIEST SHOWERS...THOUGH CONFIDENCE AND TEMPORAL DURATION TOO LOW
TO MENTION IN THIS TAF PACKAGE. CONFIDENCE IS VERY LOW BEYOND
00Z...AND SOME ADDITIONAL SCT SHRA AND CIGS FALLING BACK BLO 6K FT
MAY BE POSSIBLE.

SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA AND SOUTHWEST ARIZONA INCLUDING KIPL AND KBLH...
PREVAILING RAIN WILL MOVE EAST OF TERMINAL SITES BY 15Z...HOWEVER
LINGER LOW LEVEL MOISTURE HAS ALLOWED PATCHY MVFR TO LIFR CIGS TO
DEVELOP. NOT A LOT OF CONFIDENCE IN HOW LONG THESE LOWER CATEGORIES
WILL PERSIST...THOUGH MODELS SUGGEST ONLY A BRIEF TIME. WITH THE
UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM MOVING THROUGH SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA THIS
AFTERNOON...CONFIDENCE IS BETTER THAN GUSTY WEST WINDS WILL DEVELOP
WITH SOME SHRA REDEVELOPMENT. CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE QUICKLY AFTER
SUNSET.


AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDED TAFS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...
STRONG HIGH PRESSURE AND MUCH DRIER CONDITIONS WILL MOVE BACK INTO
THE DISTRICT DURING THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK. TEMPERATURES WILL
REBOUND BACK INTO A NORMAL TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL RANGE...WHILE
AFTERNOON HUMIDITY LEVELS RETURN INTO A 15 TO 25 PERCENT RANGE.
OVERNIGHT RECOVERY WILL BE GOOD. PERIODS OF GUSTY NORTH WINDS DOWN
THE COLORADO RIVER VALLEY WILL BE LIKELY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...WHILE
OCCASIONAL PERIODS OF STRONGER EASTERLY WINDS OVER RIDGE TOPS OF
CENTRAL ARIZONA MAY BE COMMON LATE IN THE WEEK.

&&

.PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

AZ...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH 5 PM TODAY AZZ020>021.
     FLOOD WATCH THROUGH 8 PM TODAY AZZ022>024.

CA...FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 12 PM TODAY CAZ031>033.

&&

$$

VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/PHOENIX

DISCUSSION...CB
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...PERCHA
AVIATION...MO
FIRE WEATHER...MO









000
FXUS65 KPSR 021626
AFDPSR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PHOENIX AZ
925 AM MST MON MAR 2 2015

...POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAIN AFFECTING THE SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH
CENTRAL AZ DESERTS THROUGH LATE TODAY...

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION WILL EXPAND FROM SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA INTO
ARIZONA TODAY...AND WILL SLOWLY SHIFT EASTWARD DURING THE COURSE OF
THE DAY. PERIODS OF MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN ARE ANTICIPATED...
ESPECIALLY OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN AND FOOTHILL LOCATIONS OF SOUTH
CENTRAL ARIZONA. THERE WILL ALSO BE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS
AS WELL...MAINLY DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING HOURS.
COOLER TEMPERATURES WILL ALSO ACCOMPANY THIS SYSTEM WITH BELOW
NORMAL READINGS EXPECTED FROM TODAY THROUGH MID WEEK. A RETURN TO
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES IS LIKELY BY LATE WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
A WET PACIFIC LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM CONTINUED TO BRING WIDESPREAD RAIN
AND RAIN SHOWERS TO THE DESERT SOUTHWEST THIS MORNING...ESPECIALLY
IN THE VICINITY OF THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WHICH WAS PUSHING EACH
ACROSS THE CENTRAL DESERTS AS OF 8 AM. MAIN UPPER LOW CENTER WAS
SPINNING ALONG OR JUST OFF THE FAR SERN CA COAST THIS MORNING...AND
THERE WERE A COUPLE LIGHTNING STRIKES NOTED JUST OFFSHORE UNDER THE
UPPER COLD POOL. WIDESPREAD RAIN/RAIN SHOWERS WERE PRESENT ON RADAR
AT 8 AM...MAINLY EAST OF THE LOWER CO RIVER VALLEY OVER EASTERN YUMA
COUNTY AND WEST/CENTRAL MARICOPA COUNTY. AS THE FRONT MOVES EAST
ACROSS THE CENTRAL DESERTS THIS MORNING...RAIN CHANCES WILL APPROACH
100 PERCENT ACROSS MUCH OF THE GREATER PHOENIX AREA AND BY AFTERNOON
MOST OF SOUTH CENTRAL AZ WILL SEE RAIN TOTALS IN EXCESS OF ONE
QUARTER INCH. HIGHER RAINFALL TOTALS ARE LIKELY IN THE
FOOTHILL/HIGHER TERRAIN AREAS TO THE NORTH AND EAST OF CENTRAL
PHOENIX...WITH PEAK TOTALS RANGING FROM 0.75 INCHES TO SLIGHTLY OVER
ONE INCH. THIS SYSTEM LOOKS TO BE RATHER DYNAMIC...AIDED BY A 140KT
UPPER JET MOVING NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS CENTRAL AZ THIS
AFTERNOON...PUTTING MUCH OF SOUTH CENTRAL AZ UNDER THE FAVORED
RIGHT-REAR QUADRANT FOR ENHANCED LIFT. RH/OMEGA CROSS SECTIONS SHOW
DEEP UPWARD MOTION COMBINED WITH NEAR SATURATED CONDITIONS...AND
THUS WE HAVE NEARLY 100 PERCENT CHANCES FOR RAIN OVER THE DESERTS
TODAY. OF COURSE...WITH THE SHOWERS AND CLOUDS...HIGH TEMPS WILL
FALL INTO UPPER 50S TO LOW 60S THIS AFTERNOON OVER THE LOWER
DESERTS...READINGS THAT ARE OVER 10 DEGREES BELOW SEASONAL NORMALS.

BASED ON RADAR AND SATELLITE TRENDS...THREAT FOR SIGNIFICANT AREAL
FLOODING WEST OF THE LOWER CO RIVER IS ALMOST OVER AND THE AREAL
FLOOD WATCH WILL NO LONGER BE NEEDED IN THAT AREA. OTHERWISE WE WILL
KEEP THE AREAL FLOOD WATCH GOING THRU AT LEAST 5 PM FOR THE
CENTRAL/SOUTH CENTRAL ZONES. ALTHOUGH INSTABILITY IS NOT EXCESSIVE
TODAY...WITH LIFTED INDICES NEAR ZERO AND CAPE VALUES MOSTLY LESS
THAN 200 J/KG...SHOULD A STORM FORM THE STRONG DYNAMICS WILL LIKELY
INCREASE THE STORM INTENSITY AND ASSOCIATED RAINFALL. THUS...THREAT
FOR AREAL FLOODING IS STILL THERE AND THE WATCH WILL CONTINUE.

.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...

TODAY AND TONIGHT...
THE WELL-ADVERTISED UPPER-LEVEL LOW CENTER...THAT HAS BEEN DROPPING
SOUTHWARD ALONG THE WEST COAST OVER THE LAST FEW DAYS...IS FINALLY
BEGINNING TO MOVE OFF TO THE EAST...INTO SOUTHERN CA THIS MORNING AS
THE LONG-AWAITED UPSTREAM KICKER...MOVES SOUTHWARD ACROSS NORTHERN
CA TOWARDS THIS LOW CENTER. THIS SYSTEM...WHICH BROUGHT RAINFALL
AMOUNTS RANGING FROM 0.25 INCH TO JUST OVER 1.00 INCH TO MUCH OF SE
CA YESTERDAY AND LAST NIGHT...WHICH WAS FORECAST WELL BY THE GFS
MODEL OUTPUT...IS EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO WESTERN ARIZONA THIS
MORNING...THEN ACROSS SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING.
NOW THAT THE MAIN UPPER LOW IS FINALLY SHIFTING TO THE EAST...THE
BAROCLINIC LEAF AND ASSOCIATED AREA OF RAINFALL IS ALSO MOVING INTO
EXTREME WESTERN ARIZONA AS OF THIS HOUR...BRINGING LIGHT TO MODERATE
RAINFALL TO PARTS OF YUMA AND LA PAZ COUNTY. THE LATEST GFS AND HRRR
HI-RES MODELS ARE NOW IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE TIMING OF THIS SYSTEM
AS IT CONTINUES TO MOVE EASTWARD ACROSS AZ TODAY...WITH BOTH OF THEM
BRINGING RAINFALL TO THE GREATER PHX AREA AROUND DAYBREAK/DURING THE
MORNING COMMUTE...THEN INTO THE EASTERNMOST PORTION OF OUR CWA
(SOUTHERN GILA COUNTY) BY EARLY AFTERNOON.

ALTHOUGH THIS HAS TURNED INTO A FAIRLY PROGRESSIVE SYSTEM (AFTER A
DELAYED ARRIVAL)...IT STILL LOOKS LIKE A FAIRLY ROBUST SYSTEM...AND
IT IS STILL EXPECTED TO BRING LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN TO SOUTH-CENTRAL
ARIZONA TODAY...ESPECIALLY OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN NORTH AND EAST OF
PHOENIX. THIS IS DUE TO THE FACT THAT A PLUME OF VERY MOIST
AIR...WITH PWATS AROUND ONE INCH IS EXPECTED TO STREAM NORTH OVER
THE REGION TODAY ALONG AND JUST AHEAD OF THE MAIN SURFACE
FRONT/BAROCLINIC ZONE. THIS DEEP MOISTURE...COMBINED WITH GOOD
BAROCLINICITY...STRONG LOW-LEVEL UPSLOPE SOUTHERLY FLOW (850MB WINDS
IN THE 30-40KT RANGE)...AND INFLUENCE FROM THE RIGHT-ENTRANCE REGION
OF THE JET IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE A RATHER SOLID BAND OF
MODERATE-HEAVY RAINFALL DURING ITS PASSAGE ACROSS SOUTH-CENTRAL
ARIZONA. ALSO...EVEN THOUGH THERE IS NOW A WHOLE LOT OF CAPE IN THE
FORECAST SOUNDINGS (A COUPLE HUNDRED JOULES/KG AT MOST)...THERE
APPEARS TO BE ENOUGH LIFT TO TRIGGER A FEW EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS
THIS AFTERNOON AS THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH. THE COMBINATION OF THE
GENERAL RAINFALL...RANGING FROM AROUND 1/2 INCH OVER WESTERN
MARICOPA COUNTY TO AS MUCH AS 2.00 INCHES IN THE MOST FAVORED
LOCATIONS OVER EXTREME NORTH AND NORTHEAST MARICOPA COUNTY...WITH
THESE HEAVIER SHOWERS...WILL LIKELY PRODUCE AT LEAST SOME LOCAL
FLOODING PROBLEMS IN OUR WASHES...HIGHWAY DIPS...AND LOW-LYING
AREAS. THERE COULD ALSO BE SOME RISES IN SOME OF OUR SMALLER CREEKS
AND STREAMS...ESPECIALLY OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN. SNOWFALL...IF
ANY...IS STILL EXPECTED TO BE CONFINED TO OUR HIGHEST PEAKS...WHERE
A DUSTING TO PERHAPS AN INCH COULD FALL BEFORE THE PRECIP ENDS THIS
EVENING. ON THE OTHER HAND...MUCH GREATER SNOWFALL AMOUNTS ARE
EXPECTED FURTHER NORTH AND EAST...FROM THE FLAGSTAFF AREA EAST
ACROSS THE RIM COUNTY INTO THE WHITE MTNS.

IT NOW APPEARS THAT THE RAINFALL SHOULD DIMINISH RATHER RAPIDLY THIS
EVENING FROM WEST TO EAST AS THE MAIN UPPER TROF MOVES OFF TO THE
EAST AND THE LOW-LEVEL SOUTHERLY JET RAPIDLY BREAKS DOWN AND SHIFTS
TO A MUCH LIGHTER WESTERLY FLOW...WITH JUST A FEW LEFT-OVER
SPRINKLES OR LIGHT SHOWERS REMAINING BY LATE TONIGHT...MAINLY OVER
SOUTHERN GILA COUNTY. TEMPERATURES TODAY ARE EXPECTED TO BE MUCH
COOLER THAN WHAT WE SAW ON SUNDAY...WITH MANY LOWER DESERT LOCATIONS
ACROSS SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA STAYING DOWN IN THE 50S THROUGH MUCH OF
THE DAY. LOWS TONIGHT ARE EXPECTED TO FALL INTO THE 40S AT MOST
LOWER DESERT LOCATIONS...WHICH IS NOW A FEW DEGREES BELOW NORMAL FOR
THIS TIME OF YEAR.

TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...
A MUCH DRIER WEATHER REGIME IS EXPECTED AS NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT
BECOMES ESTABLISHED ACROSS THE REGION...WITH JUST A FEW SHOWERS
POSSIBLE FROM TIME-TO-TIME OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN EAST OF
PHOENIX...AS WEAK SHORTWAVES EMBEDDED IN THIS NW FLOW MOVE ACROSS
EXTREME EASTERN AZ. TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO MAKE A SLOW REBOUND
AS 500MB HEIGHTS RISE...WITH HIGHS RETURNING TO NEAR-NORMAL VALUES
BY THURSDAY.

FRIDAY INTO NEXT WEEKEND...
A WARMING TREND IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THIS PERIOD UNDER
MAINLY CLEAR SKIES AS HIGH PRESSURE STRENGTHENS OVER THE
REGION...WITH A DECENT CHANCE FOR HIGHS IN THE 80S ACROSS THE LOWER
DESERTS BY NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION...
SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA INCLUDING KPHX...KIWA AND KSDL...
WIDESPREAD IMPACTS INCLUDING LOW CIGS...RAIN SHOWERS...LOWERED
VSBY...AND GUSTY WIND SHIFTS WILL BE COMMON ACROSS CNTRL ARIZONA
TERMINALS THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. CIGS HAVE ALREADY STARTED LOWERING
BLO 6K FT WITH MTN OBSCURATION PREVAILING THROUGH THE DAY.
CONFIDENCE IS ONLY MODEST IN TIMING THE HEAVIEST SQUALLS INTO
KPHX...THOUGH MOST HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS SUGGEST A COUPLE HOURS
AROUND 18Z WITH PREVAILING MVFR CONDITIONS ALONG WITH A DISTINCT
WIND SHIFT. SOME BRIEF PERIODS OF IFR MAY ALSO BE POSSIBLE IN THE
HEAVIEST SHOWERS...THOUGH CONFIDENCE AND TEMPORAL DURATION TOO LOW
TO MENTION IN THIS TAF PACKAGE. CONFIDENCE IS VERY LOW BEYOND
00Z...AND SOME ADDITIONAL SCT SHRA AND CIGS FALLING BACK BLO 6K FT
MAY BE POSSIBLE.

SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA AND SOUTHWEST ARIZONA INCLUDING KIPL AND KBLH...
PREVAILING RAIN WILL MOVE EAST OF TERMINAL SITES BY 15Z...HOWEVER
LINGER LOW LEVEL MOISTURE HAS ALLOWED PATCHY MVFR TO LIFR CIGS TO
DEVELOP. NOT A LOT OF CONFIDENCE IN HOW LONG THESE LOWER CATEGORIES
WILL PERSIST...THOUGH MODELS SUGGEST ONLY A BRIEF TIME. WITH THE
UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM MOVING THROUGH SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA THIS
AFTERNOON...CONFIDENCE IS BETTER THAN GUSTY WEST WINDS WILL DEVELOP
WITH SOME SHRA REDEVELOPMENT. CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE QUICKLY AFTER
SUNSET.


AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDED TAFS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...
STRONG HIGH PRESSURE AND MUCH DRIER CONDITIONS WILL MOVE BACK INTO
THE DISTRICT DURING THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK. TEMPERATURES WILL
REBOUND BACK INTO A NORMAL TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL RANGE...WHILE
AFTERNOON HUMIDITY LEVELS RETURN INTO A 15 TO 25 PERCENT RANGE.
OVERNIGHT RECOVERY WILL BE GOOD. PERIODS OF GUSTY NORTH WINDS DOWN
THE COLORADO RIVER VALLEY WILL BE LIKELY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...WHILE
OCCASIONAL PERIODS OF STRONGER EASTERLY WINDS OVER RIDGE TOPS OF
CENTRAL ARIZONA MAY BE COMMON LATE IN THE WEEK.

&&

.PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

AZ...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH 5 PM TODAY AZZ020>021.
     FLOOD WATCH THROUGH 8 PM TODAY AZZ022>024.

CA...FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 12 PM TODAY CAZ031>033.

&&

$$

VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/PHOENIX

DISCUSSION...CB
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...PERCHA
AVIATION...MO
FIRE WEATHER...MO










000
FXUS65 KTWC 021626
AFDTWC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ
925 AM MST MON MAR 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...A STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM NEAR CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN
CALIFORNIA WILL BRING WINDY CONDITIONS AS WELL AS PERIODS OF VALLEY
RAIN AND MOUNTAIN SNOW BY MID DAY TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT.
PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL LESSEN CONSIDERABLY FOR MIDWEEK WITH DRY
CONDITIONS AREAWIDE AND WARMER TEMPERATURES BY THE END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...9 AM WATER VAPOR IMAGERY THIS MORNING SHOWED THE UPPER
LOW JUST OFF THE SRN CA COAST. BASED ON TRENDS THE CENTER HAS
STOPPED DIGGING S AND IS MOVING ENE. IT WILL OPEN UP AS IT MOVES ENE
ACROSS SRN CA THIS MORNING AND UP INTO NRN AZ THIS AFTERNOON.
REGIONAL DOPPLER RADARS PAINTED SHOWERS ACROSS WRN AZ MOVING SLOWLY
TO THE E. AREAS OF MODERATE RAIN ARE IN THIS BAND WITH AJO RECORDING
0.35" BETWEEN 8 AND 9 AM. BASED ON CURRENT MOVEMENT AND HRRR DATA
THE LEADING EDGE OF THIS BAND OF SHOWERS WILL BE MOVING INTO SE
PINAL/ERN PIMA/SANTA CRUZ COUNTY BETWEEN 1 AND 3 PM...GIVE OR TAKE
AN HOUR. THE CENTRAL TO NE MOUNTAINS WILL START A LITTLE EARLIER DUE
TO THE STRONG UPSLOPE FLOW. SNOW LEVELS WILL BE CRASHING THIS
AFTERNOON...DOWN TO AROUND 6500 FEET WITH SNOW PICKING UP IN
INTENSITY. WILL MAINTAIN CURRENT WINTER STORM FOR THE WHITES AND
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORIES PINALENO/CATALINA/RINCON MTNS THAT GO INTO
EFFECT AFTER 11 AM. WIND ALSO AN ISSUE TODAY ESPECIALLY IN THE
MOUNTAINS AND COCHISE COUNTY WHERE A WIND ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT.
HAVE SEE SOME WIND GUSTS IN THE MOUNTAINS IN THE 30-45 MPH RANGE
THIS MORNING. SHOWER ACTIVITY CONTINUING THIS EVENING ACROSS ERN
ZONES BEFORE ENDING EARLY TUESDAY MORNING. MORE ON THE REST OF THE
FORECAST IN THE AFTERNOON DISCUSSION.

&&

.AVIATION...VALID THRU 03/12Z.
AN APPROACHING STORM SYSTEM WILL BE IMPACTING THE AREA THRU THIS
EVENING. EXPECT SCT CUMULUS NEAR 4-6K FT AGL WITH BKN-OVC LAYERS ABV
THROUGH 25K FT...THEN AFT 02/18Z BECOMING BKN-OVC 4-6K FT WITH
MULTIPLE LAYERS ABV AND IFR/MVFR CONDS OVER MTNS AND NEAR SHOWERS.
ISOLD SHOWERS THIS MORNING WILL BECOME WIDESPREAD THIS AFTERNOON.
CLOUDS AND SHOWERS DIMINISHING FROM THE WEST BEHIND THE COLD FRONT
WHICH WILL BE NEAR KTUS 02/23Z AND KDUG NEAR 03/05Z. SFC WINDS S
8-16 KTS THEN INCREASING TO 15-25 KTS WITH HIGHER GUSTS TO 40 KTS IN
ADVANCE OF APPROACHING COLD FRONT. STRONG SOUTHERLY JET TODAY WITH
WINDS 30-50 KTS 5-10K FT MSL. AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR
TAF AMENDMENTS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...STRONG GUSTY WINDS...ESPECIALLY IN THE MOUNTAINS AND
THE LOWER ELEVATIONS S AND E OF TUCSON...WILL CONTINUE INTO THIS
EVENING BEFORE DIMINISHING. SHOWERS OVER WESTERN PIMA COUNTY THIS
MORNING WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH EAST ACROSS SE AZ AS A COLD FRONT
MOVES EAST. THE SHOWERS WILL DIMINISH TONIGHT AS THE COLD FRONT
MOVES INTO NEW MEXICO. ANOTHER WEATHER SYSTEM WILL IMPACT THE AREA
ON WEDNESDAY FOR ANOTHER CHANCE OF SHOWERS. DRY AND WARMER THURSDAY
ONWARD.

&&

.TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
 WINTER STORM WARNING 11 AM MST THIS MORNING TO 1 AM MST TUESDAY
  ABOVE 6500 FEET FOR AZZ510-511.

 WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY 11 AM MST THIS MORNING TO 1 AM MST
  TUESDAY ABOVE 6500 FEET FOR AZZ514.

 WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM MST THIS EVENING ABOVE 5000 FEET FOR
  AZZ512>515.

&&

$$

VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...YOUTUBE...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/TUCSON







000
FXUS65 KFGZ 021554
AFDFGZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ
900 AM MST MON MAR 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A PACIFIC STORM SYSTEM WILL BRING WIDESPREAD RAIN AND SNOW TO
NORTHERN ARIZONA TODAY. SIGNIFICANT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS ARE
EXPECTED ABOVE THE 6000 FOOT ELEVATION LEVEL WITH HAZARDOUS
WINTER DRIVING CONDITIONS. PRECIPITATION WILL DECREASE TONIGHT...THOUGH
A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS REMAINS IN THE FORECAST THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
DRIER AND WARMER WEATHER RETURNS BY THURSDAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...THE FORECAST PACKAGE IS IN GOOD SHAPE WITH THE
MOVEMENT AND TIMING OF VARIOUS FEATURES OF THE CURRENT STORM SYSTEM
UNCHANGED.

...SIGNIFICANT WINTER WEATHER ACROSS THE HIGH COUNTRY TODAY...

A ROBUST COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH A DEEP PACIFIC LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM STRETCHES FROM NEAR YUMA ALL THE WAY TO THE UTAH BORDER
EARLY THIS MORNING WITH WIDESPREAD RAIN BEING REPORTED ALONG THE
FRONT. FURTHER EAST...SCATTERED LIGHT TO MODERATE CONVECTIVE
SHOWERS CONTINUE TO DEVELOP ACROSS CENTRAL ARIZONA IN THE WARM
SECTOR OF THE STORM SYSTEM WITH ELEVATED SNOW LEVELS RANGING FROM
7000 TO 8000 FEET. SNOW LEVELS WILL REMAIN HIGH IN THE RELATIVELY
WARM AIR AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT THIS MORNING. PRECIPITATION WILL
INCREASE IN COVERAGE AS THE FRONT MOVES INTO WESTERN YAVAPAI AND
COCONINO COUNTIES THIS MORNING...THROUGH CENTRAL ARIZONA
MIDDAY...AND INTO EASTERN ARIZONA THIS AFTERNOON. EXPECT MODERATE
TO PERIODS OF HEAVY RAIN AND SNOW ALONG THE COLD FRONT WITH SNOW
LEVELS DROPPING TO AROUND 5500-6000 FEET BEHIND THE FRONT.

THE MAIN UPDATES THIS MORNING WERE TO FINE TUNE FRONTAL TIMING AND
TRANSITION OF RAIN TO SNOW IN THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS. THE FRONTAL
BAND OF PRECIPITATION WILL LIKELY START AS RAIN FOR MANY AREAS
BEFORE TRANSITIONING TO SNOW BEHIND THE FRONT. A SLIGHTLY LATER
ONSET OF SNOW FROM THE GRAND CANYON TO FLAGSTAFF REGIONS HAS
RESULTED IN A SLIGHT DOWNWARD TREND IN FORECAST SNOWFALL AMOUNTS.
HOWEVER...SNOWFALL RATES WILL BE QUITE HIGH ALONG THE FRONTAL
ZONE...LIKELY AN INCH PER HOUR FOR AT LEAST A FEW HOURS. IN
ADDITION...STRONG SOUTHERLY WINDS UP TO 40 TO 45 MPH AHEAD OF AND
ALONG THE FRONT WILL GENERATE AREAS OF BLOWING SNOW WITH VERY POOR
VISIBILITY AND HAZARDOUS ROAD CONDITIONS. WINTER STORM WARNINGS
AND ADVISORIES ARE IN EFFECT FOR MUCH OF THE HIGH COUNTRY THROUGH
THIS EVENING. WINDS WILL BE EVEN STRONGER GUSTING TO 50 MPH NORTH
OF THE MOGOLLON RIM THIS AFTERNOON WHERE A WIND ADVISORY IS IN
EFFECT.

ADDITIONAL PRECIPITATION TOTALS (RAIN AND MELTED SNOW) WILL
GENERALLY RANGE FROM 1 TO 1.5 INCHES FROM THE GRAND CANYON REGION
ALONG THE MOGOLLON RIM AND SOUTH INTO YAVAPAI AND NORTHERN GILA
COUNTIES. ALREADY SATURATED GROUND FROM PREVIOUS RAINFALL WILL
LEAD TO A THREAT OF SOME LOCALIZED FLOODING IN THE LOWER
ELEVATIONS OF YAVAPAI AND NORTHERN GILA COUNTY...ESPECIALLY DURING
THE TIME OF HEAVIEST RAIN ALONG THE FRONT.

SHOWERS WILL DECREASE IN COVERAGE LATE THIS EVENING AND ESPECIALLY
AFTER MIDNIGHT. A SECONDARY SHORTWAVE MOVES THROUGH THE PACIFIC TROUGH
AS IT PASSES THROUGH ARIZONA TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY KEEPING THE
CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND COOL TEMPERATURES IN THE FORECAST. A DRIER
WEATHER PATTERN SHOULD RETURN FROM THURSDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS
HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS ALONG THE WEST COAST.

&&

.AVIATION...
FOR THE 18Z PACKAGE...A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE STATE FROM WEST TO
EAST TODAY CAUSING MODERATE TO HEAVY PRECIPITATION WITH WIDESPREAD
IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY. PRECIPITATION
BECOMING SHOWERY AND DECREASING MOST AREAS BY THIS EVENING. STRONG
S-SW WIND 20-30KT G40-45KT GENERALLY NORTH OF MOGOLLON RIM 17Z-00Z.
AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR TAF AMENDMENTS.

&&

.FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO 7 PM MST THIS
EVENING FOR AZZ015.

WIND ADVISORY FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 5 PM MST THIS
AFTERNOON FOR AZZ010-012>014-040.

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 1 AM MST
TUESDAY FOR AZZ009-039.

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 2 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 1 AM MST
TUESDAY FOR AZZ011.

WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 1 AM MST
TUESDAY FOR AZZ016>018.

WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 7 PM MST THIS EVENING FOR AZZ004-
006-007.

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO 7 PM MST
THIS EVENING FOR AZZ008.

&&

$$

PUBLIC.........MCCOLLUM/MCS
AVIATION.......KD/JJ

FOR NORTHERN ARIZONA WEATHER INFORMATION VISIT
WEATHER.GOV/FLAGSTAFF





000
FXUS65 KFGZ 021554
AFDFGZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ
900 AM MST MON MAR 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A PACIFIC STORM SYSTEM WILL BRING WIDESPREAD RAIN AND SNOW TO
NORTHERN ARIZONA TODAY. SIGNIFICANT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS ARE
EXPECTED ABOVE THE 6000 FOOT ELEVATION LEVEL WITH HAZARDOUS
WINTER DRIVING CONDITIONS. PRECIPITATION WILL DECREASE TONIGHT...THOUGH
A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS REMAINS IN THE FORECAST THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
DRIER AND WARMER WEATHER RETURNS BY THURSDAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...THE FORECAST PACKAGE IS IN GOOD SHAPE WITH THE
MOVEMENT AND TIMING OF VARIOUS FEATURES OF THE CURRENT STORM SYSTEM
UNCHANGED.

...SIGNIFICANT WINTER WEATHER ACROSS THE HIGH COUNTRY TODAY...

A ROBUST COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH A DEEP PACIFIC LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM STRETCHES FROM NEAR YUMA ALL THE WAY TO THE UTAH BORDER
EARLY THIS MORNING WITH WIDESPREAD RAIN BEING REPORTED ALONG THE
FRONT. FURTHER EAST...SCATTERED LIGHT TO MODERATE CONVECTIVE
SHOWERS CONTINUE TO DEVELOP ACROSS CENTRAL ARIZONA IN THE WARM
SECTOR OF THE STORM SYSTEM WITH ELEVATED SNOW LEVELS RANGING FROM
7000 TO 8000 FEET. SNOW LEVELS WILL REMAIN HIGH IN THE RELATIVELY
WARM AIR AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT THIS MORNING. PRECIPITATION WILL
INCREASE IN COVERAGE AS THE FRONT MOVES INTO WESTERN YAVAPAI AND
COCONINO COUNTIES THIS MORNING...THROUGH CENTRAL ARIZONA
MIDDAY...AND INTO EASTERN ARIZONA THIS AFTERNOON. EXPECT MODERATE
TO PERIODS OF HEAVY RAIN AND SNOW ALONG THE COLD FRONT WITH SNOW
LEVELS DROPPING TO AROUND 5500-6000 FEET BEHIND THE FRONT.

THE MAIN UPDATES THIS MORNING WERE TO FINE TUNE FRONTAL TIMING AND
TRANSITION OF RAIN TO SNOW IN THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS. THE FRONTAL
BAND OF PRECIPITATION WILL LIKELY START AS RAIN FOR MANY AREAS
BEFORE TRANSITIONING TO SNOW BEHIND THE FRONT. A SLIGHTLY LATER
ONSET OF SNOW FROM THE GRAND CANYON TO FLAGSTAFF REGIONS HAS
RESULTED IN A SLIGHT DOWNWARD TREND IN FORECAST SNOWFALL AMOUNTS.
HOWEVER...SNOWFALL RATES WILL BE QUITE HIGH ALONG THE FRONTAL
ZONE...LIKELY AN INCH PER HOUR FOR AT LEAST A FEW HOURS. IN
ADDITION...STRONG SOUTHERLY WINDS UP TO 40 TO 45 MPH AHEAD OF AND
ALONG THE FRONT WILL GENERATE AREAS OF BLOWING SNOW WITH VERY POOR
VISIBILITY AND HAZARDOUS ROAD CONDITIONS. WINTER STORM WARNINGS
AND ADVISORIES ARE IN EFFECT FOR MUCH OF THE HIGH COUNTRY THROUGH
THIS EVENING. WINDS WILL BE EVEN STRONGER GUSTING TO 50 MPH NORTH
OF THE MOGOLLON RIM THIS AFTERNOON WHERE A WIND ADVISORY IS IN
EFFECT.

ADDITIONAL PRECIPITATION TOTALS (RAIN AND MELTED SNOW) WILL
GENERALLY RANGE FROM 1 TO 1.5 INCHES FROM THE GRAND CANYON REGION
ALONG THE MOGOLLON RIM AND SOUTH INTO YAVAPAI AND NORTHERN GILA
COUNTIES. ALREADY SATURATED GROUND FROM PREVIOUS RAINFALL WILL
LEAD TO A THREAT OF SOME LOCALIZED FLOODING IN THE LOWER
ELEVATIONS OF YAVAPAI AND NORTHERN GILA COUNTY...ESPECIALLY DURING
THE TIME OF HEAVIEST RAIN ALONG THE FRONT.

SHOWERS WILL DECREASE IN COVERAGE LATE THIS EVENING AND ESPECIALLY
AFTER MIDNIGHT. A SECONDARY SHORTWAVE MOVES THROUGH THE PACIFIC TROUGH
AS IT PASSES THROUGH ARIZONA TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY KEEPING THE
CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND COOL TEMPERATURES IN THE FORECAST. A DRIER
WEATHER PATTERN SHOULD RETURN FROM THURSDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS
HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS ALONG THE WEST COAST.

&&

.AVIATION...
FOR THE 18Z PACKAGE...A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE STATE FROM WEST TO
EAST TODAY CAUSING MODERATE TO HEAVY PRECIPITATION WITH WIDESPREAD
IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY. PRECIPITATION
BECOMING SHOWERY AND DECREASING MOST AREAS BY THIS EVENING. STRONG
S-SW WIND 20-30KT G40-45KT GENERALLY NORTH OF MOGOLLON RIM 17Z-00Z.
AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR TAF AMENDMENTS.

&&

.FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO 7 PM MST THIS
EVENING FOR AZZ015.

WIND ADVISORY FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 5 PM MST THIS
AFTERNOON FOR AZZ010-012>014-040.

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 1 AM MST
TUESDAY FOR AZZ009-039.

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 2 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 1 AM MST
TUESDAY FOR AZZ011.

WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 1 AM MST
TUESDAY FOR AZZ016>018.

WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 7 PM MST THIS EVENING FOR AZZ004-
006-007.

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO 7 PM MST
THIS EVENING FOR AZZ008.

&&

$$

PUBLIC.........MCCOLLUM/MCS
AVIATION.......KD/JJ

FOR NORTHERN ARIZONA WEATHER INFORMATION VISIT
WEATHER.GOV/FLAGSTAFF





000
FXUS65 KFGZ 021554
AFDFGZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ
900 AM MST MON MAR 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A PACIFIC STORM SYSTEM WILL BRING WIDESPREAD RAIN AND SNOW TO
NORTHERN ARIZONA TODAY. SIGNIFICANT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS ARE
EXPECTED ABOVE THE 6000 FOOT ELEVATION LEVEL WITH HAZARDOUS
WINTER DRIVING CONDITIONS. PRECIPITATION WILL DECREASE TONIGHT...THOUGH
A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS REMAINS IN THE FORECAST THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
DRIER AND WARMER WEATHER RETURNS BY THURSDAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...THE FORECAST PACKAGE IS IN GOOD SHAPE WITH THE
MOVEMENT AND TIMING OF VARIOUS FEATURES OF THE CURRENT STORM SYSTEM
UNCHANGED.

...SIGNIFICANT WINTER WEATHER ACROSS THE HIGH COUNTRY TODAY...

A ROBUST COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH A DEEP PACIFIC LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM STRETCHES FROM NEAR YUMA ALL THE WAY TO THE UTAH BORDER
EARLY THIS MORNING WITH WIDESPREAD RAIN BEING REPORTED ALONG THE
FRONT. FURTHER EAST...SCATTERED LIGHT TO MODERATE CONVECTIVE
SHOWERS CONTINUE TO DEVELOP ACROSS CENTRAL ARIZONA IN THE WARM
SECTOR OF THE STORM SYSTEM WITH ELEVATED SNOW LEVELS RANGING FROM
7000 TO 8000 FEET. SNOW LEVELS WILL REMAIN HIGH IN THE RELATIVELY
WARM AIR AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT THIS MORNING. PRECIPITATION WILL
INCREASE IN COVERAGE AS THE FRONT MOVES INTO WESTERN YAVAPAI AND
COCONINO COUNTIES THIS MORNING...THROUGH CENTRAL ARIZONA
MIDDAY...AND INTO EASTERN ARIZONA THIS AFTERNOON. EXPECT MODERATE
TO PERIODS OF HEAVY RAIN AND SNOW ALONG THE COLD FRONT WITH SNOW
LEVELS DROPPING TO AROUND 5500-6000 FEET BEHIND THE FRONT.

THE MAIN UPDATES THIS MORNING WERE TO FINE TUNE FRONTAL TIMING AND
TRANSITION OF RAIN TO SNOW IN THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS. THE FRONTAL
BAND OF PRECIPITATION WILL LIKELY START AS RAIN FOR MANY AREAS
BEFORE TRANSITIONING TO SNOW BEHIND THE FRONT. A SLIGHTLY LATER
ONSET OF SNOW FROM THE GRAND CANYON TO FLAGSTAFF REGIONS HAS
RESULTED IN A SLIGHT DOWNWARD TREND IN FORECAST SNOWFALL AMOUNTS.
HOWEVER...SNOWFALL RATES WILL BE QUITE HIGH ALONG THE FRONTAL
ZONE...LIKELY AN INCH PER HOUR FOR AT LEAST A FEW HOURS. IN
ADDITION...STRONG SOUTHERLY WINDS UP TO 40 TO 45 MPH AHEAD OF AND
ALONG THE FRONT WILL GENERATE AREAS OF BLOWING SNOW WITH VERY POOR
VISIBILITY AND HAZARDOUS ROAD CONDITIONS. WINTER STORM WARNINGS
AND ADVISORIES ARE IN EFFECT FOR MUCH OF THE HIGH COUNTRY THROUGH
THIS EVENING. WINDS WILL BE EVEN STRONGER GUSTING TO 50 MPH NORTH
OF THE MOGOLLON RIM THIS AFTERNOON WHERE A WIND ADVISORY IS IN
EFFECT.

ADDITIONAL PRECIPITATION TOTALS (RAIN AND MELTED SNOW) WILL
GENERALLY RANGE FROM 1 TO 1.5 INCHES FROM THE GRAND CANYON REGION
ALONG THE MOGOLLON RIM AND SOUTH INTO YAVAPAI AND NORTHERN GILA
COUNTIES. ALREADY SATURATED GROUND FROM PREVIOUS RAINFALL WILL
LEAD TO A THREAT OF SOME LOCALIZED FLOODING IN THE LOWER
ELEVATIONS OF YAVAPAI AND NORTHERN GILA COUNTY...ESPECIALLY DURING
THE TIME OF HEAVIEST RAIN ALONG THE FRONT.

SHOWERS WILL DECREASE IN COVERAGE LATE THIS EVENING AND ESPECIALLY
AFTER MIDNIGHT. A SECONDARY SHORTWAVE MOVES THROUGH THE PACIFIC TROUGH
AS IT PASSES THROUGH ARIZONA TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY KEEPING THE
CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND COOL TEMPERATURES IN THE FORECAST. A DRIER
WEATHER PATTERN SHOULD RETURN FROM THURSDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS
HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS ALONG THE WEST COAST.

&&

.AVIATION...
FOR THE 18Z PACKAGE...A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE STATE FROM WEST TO
EAST TODAY CAUSING MODERATE TO HEAVY PRECIPITATION WITH WIDESPREAD
IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY. PRECIPITATION
BECOMING SHOWERY AND DECREASING MOST AREAS BY THIS EVENING. STRONG
S-SW WIND 20-30KT G40-45KT GENERALLY NORTH OF MOGOLLON RIM 17Z-00Z.
AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR TAF AMENDMENTS.

&&

.FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO 7 PM MST THIS
EVENING FOR AZZ015.

WIND ADVISORY FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 5 PM MST THIS
AFTERNOON FOR AZZ010-012>014-040.

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 1 AM MST
TUESDAY FOR AZZ009-039.

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 2 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 1 AM MST
TUESDAY FOR AZZ011.

WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 1 AM MST
TUESDAY FOR AZZ016>018.

WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 7 PM MST THIS EVENING FOR AZZ004-
006-007.

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO 7 PM MST
THIS EVENING FOR AZZ008.

&&

$$

PUBLIC.........MCCOLLUM/MCS
AVIATION.......KD/JJ

FOR NORTHERN ARIZONA WEATHER INFORMATION VISIT
WEATHER.GOV/FLAGSTAFF





000
FXUS65 KFGZ 021554
AFDFGZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ
900 AM MST MON MAR 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A PACIFIC STORM SYSTEM WILL BRING WIDESPREAD RAIN AND SNOW TO
NORTHERN ARIZONA TODAY. SIGNIFICANT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS ARE
EXPECTED ABOVE THE 6000 FOOT ELEVATION LEVEL WITH HAZARDOUS
WINTER DRIVING CONDITIONS. PRECIPITATION WILL DECREASE TONIGHT...THOUGH
A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS REMAINS IN THE FORECAST THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
DRIER AND WARMER WEATHER RETURNS BY THURSDAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...THE FORECAST PACKAGE IS IN GOOD SHAPE WITH THE
MOVEMENT AND TIMING OF VARIOUS FEATURES OF THE CURRENT STORM SYSTEM
UNCHANGED.

...SIGNIFICANT WINTER WEATHER ACROSS THE HIGH COUNTRY TODAY...

A ROBUST COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH A DEEP PACIFIC LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM STRETCHES FROM NEAR YUMA ALL THE WAY TO THE UTAH BORDER
EARLY THIS MORNING WITH WIDESPREAD RAIN BEING REPORTED ALONG THE
FRONT. FURTHER EAST...SCATTERED LIGHT TO MODERATE CONVECTIVE
SHOWERS CONTINUE TO DEVELOP ACROSS CENTRAL ARIZONA IN THE WARM
SECTOR OF THE STORM SYSTEM WITH ELEVATED SNOW LEVELS RANGING FROM
7000 TO 8000 FEET. SNOW LEVELS WILL REMAIN HIGH IN THE RELATIVELY
WARM AIR AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT THIS MORNING. PRECIPITATION WILL
INCREASE IN COVERAGE AS THE FRONT MOVES INTO WESTERN YAVAPAI AND
COCONINO COUNTIES THIS MORNING...THROUGH CENTRAL ARIZONA
MIDDAY...AND INTO EASTERN ARIZONA THIS AFTERNOON. EXPECT MODERATE
TO PERIODS OF HEAVY RAIN AND SNOW ALONG THE COLD FRONT WITH SNOW
LEVELS DROPPING TO AROUND 5500-6000 FEET BEHIND THE FRONT.

THE MAIN UPDATES THIS MORNING WERE TO FINE TUNE FRONTAL TIMING AND
TRANSITION OF RAIN TO SNOW IN THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS. THE FRONTAL
BAND OF PRECIPITATION WILL LIKELY START AS RAIN FOR MANY AREAS
BEFORE TRANSITIONING TO SNOW BEHIND THE FRONT. A SLIGHTLY LATER
ONSET OF SNOW FROM THE GRAND CANYON TO FLAGSTAFF REGIONS HAS
RESULTED IN A SLIGHT DOWNWARD TREND IN FORECAST SNOWFALL AMOUNTS.
HOWEVER...SNOWFALL RATES WILL BE QUITE HIGH ALONG THE FRONTAL
ZONE...LIKELY AN INCH PER HOUR FOR AT LEAST A FEW HOURS. IN
ADDITION...STRONG SOUTHERLY WINDS UP TO 40 TO 45 MPH AHEAD OF AND
ALONG THE FRONT WILL GENERATE AREAS OF BLOWING SNOW WITH VERY POOR
VISIBILITY AND HAZARDOUS ROAD CONDITIONS. WINTER STORM WARNINGS
AND ADVISORIES ARE IN EFFECT FOR MUCH OF THE HIGH COUNTRY THROUGH
THIS EVENING. WINDS WILL BE EVEN STRONGER GUSTING TO 50 MPH NORTH
OF THE MOGOLLON RIM THIS AFTERNOON WHERE A WIND ADVISORY IS IN
EFFECT.

ADDITIONAL PRECIPITATION TOTALS (RAIN AND MELTED SNOW) WILL
GENERALLY RANGE FROM 1 TO 1.5 INCHES FROM THE GRAND CANYON REGION
ALONG THE MOGOLLON RIM AND SOUTH INTO YAVAPAI AND NORTHERN GILA
COUNTIES. ALREADY SATURATED GROUND FROM PREVIOUS RAINFALL WILL
LEAD TO A THREAT OF SOME LOCALIZED FLOODING IN THE LOWER
ELEVATIONS OF YAVAPAI AND NORTHERN GILA COUNTY...ESPECIALLY DURING
THE TIME OF HEAVIEST RAIN ALONG THE FRONT.

SHOWERS WILL DECREASE IN COVERAGE LATE THIS EVENING AND ESPECIALLY
AFTER MIDNIGHT. A SECONDARY SHORTWAVE MOVES THROUGH THE PACIFIC TROUGH
AS IT PASSES THROUGH ARIZONA TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY KEEPING THE
CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND COOL TEMPERATURES IN THE FORECAST. A DRIER
WEATHER PATTERN SHOULD RETURN FROM THURSDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS
HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS ALONG THE WEST COAST.

&&

.AVIATION...
FOR THE 18Z PACKAGE...A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE STATE FROM WEST TO
EAST TODAY CAUSING MODERATE TO HEAVY PRECIPITATION WITH WIDESPREAD
IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY. PRECIPITATION
BECOMING SHOWERY AND DECREASING MOST AREAS BY THIS EVENING. STRONG
S-SW WIND 20-30KT G40-45KT GENERALLY NORTH OF MOGOLLON RIM 17Z-00Z.
AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR TAF AMENDMENTS.

&&

.FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO 7 PM MST THIS
EVENING FOR AZZ015.

WIND ADVISORY FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 5 PM MST THIS
AFTERNOON FOR AZZ010-012>014-040.

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 1 AM MST
TUESDAY FOR AZZ009-039.

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 2 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 1 AM MST
TUESDAY FOR AZZ011.

WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 1 AM MST
TUESDAY FOR AZZ016>018.

WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 7 PM MST THIS EVENING FOR AZZ004-
006-007.

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO 7 PM MST
THIS EVENING FOR AZZ008.

&&

$$

PUBLIC.........MCCOLLUM/MCS
AVIATION.......KD/JJ

FOR NORTHERN ARIZONA WEATHER INFORMATION VISIT
WEATHER.GOV/FLAGSTAFF





000
FXUS65 KFGZ 021153
AFDFGZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ
453 AM MST MON MAR 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A PACIFIC STORM SYSTEM WILL BRING WIDESPREAD RAIN AND SNOW TO
NORTHERN ARIZONA TODAY. SIGNIFICANT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS ARE
EXPECTED ABOVE THE 6000 FOOT ELEVATION LEVEL WITH HAZARDOUS
WINTER DRIVING CONDITIONS. PRECIPITATION WILL DECREASE TONIGHT...THOUGH
A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS REMAINS IN THE FORECAST THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
DRIER AND WARMER WEATHER RETURNS BY THURSDAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

...SIGNIFICANT WINTER WEATHER ACROSS THE HIGH COUNTRY TODAY...

A ROBUST COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH A DEEP PACIFIC LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM STRETCHES FROM NEAR YUMA ALL THE WAY TO THE UTAH BORDER
EARLY THIS MORNING WITH WIDESPREAD RAIN BEING REPORTED ALONG THE
FRONT. FURTHER EAST...SCATTERED LIGHT TO MODERATE CONVECTIVE
SHOWERS CONTINUE TO DEVELOP ACROSS CENTRAL ARIZONA IN THE WARM
SECTOR OF THE STORM SYSTEM WITH ELEVATED SNOW LEVELS RANGING FROM
7000 TO 8000 FEET. SNOW LEVELS WILL REMAIN HIGH IN THE RELATIVELY
WARM AIR AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT THIS MORNING. PRECIPITATION WILL
INCREASE IN COVERAGE AS THE FRONT MOVES INTO WESTERN YAVAPAI AND
COCONINO COUNTIES THIS MORNING...THROUGH CENTRAL ARIZONA
MIDDAY...AND INTO EASTERN ARIZONA THIS AFTERNOON. EXPECT MODERATE
TO PERIODS OF HEAVY RAIN AND SNOW ALONG THE COLD FRONT WITH SNOW
LEVELS DROPPING TO AROUND 5500-6000 FEET BEHIND THE FRONT.

THE MAIN UPDATES THIS MORNING WERE TO FINE TUNE FRONTAL TIMING AND
TRANSITION OF RAIN TO SNOW IN THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS. THE FRONTAL
BAND OF PRECIPITATION WILL LIKELY START AS RAIN FOR MANY AREAS
BEFORE TRANSITIONING TO SNOW BEHIND THE FRONT. A SLIGHTLY LATER
ONSET OF SNOW FROM THE GRAND CANYON TO FLAGSTAFF REGIONS HAS
RESULTED IN A SLIGHT DOWNWARD TREND IN FORECAST SNOWFALL AMOUNTS.
HOWEVER...SNOWFALL RATES WILL BE QUITE HIGH ALONG THE FRONTAL
ZONE...LIKELY AN INCH PER HOUR FOR AT LEAST A FEW HOURS. IN
ADDITION...STRONG SOUTHERLY WINDS UP TO 40 TO 45 MPH AHEAD OF AND
ALONG THE FRONT WILL GENERATE AREAS OF BLOWING SNOW WITH VERY POOR
VISIBILITY AND HAZARDOUS ROAD CONDITIONS. WINTER STORM WARNINGS
AND ADVISORIES ARE IN EFFECT FOR MUCH OF THE HIGH COUNTRY THROUGH
THIS EVENING. WINDS WILL BE EVEN STRONGER GUSTING TO 50 MPH NORTH
OF THE MOGOLLON RIM THIS AFTERNOON WHERE A WIND ADVISORY IS IN
EFFECT.

ADDITIONAL PRECIPITATION TOTALS (RAIN AND MELTED SNOW) WILL
GENERALLY RANGE FROM 1 TO 1.5 INCHES FROM THE GRAND CANYON REGION
ALONG THE MOGOLLON RIM AND SOUTH INTO YAVAPAI AND NORTHERN GILA
COUNTIES. ALREADY SATURATED GROUND FROM PREVIOUS RAINFALL WILL
LEAD TO A THREAT OF SOME LOCALIZED FLOODING IN THE LOWER
ELEVATIONS OF YAVAPAI AND NORTHERN GILA COUNTY...ESPECIALLY DURING
THE TIME OF HEAVIEST RAIN ALONG THE FRONT.

SHOWERS WILL DECREASE IN COVERAGE LATE THIS EVENING AND ESPECIALLY
AFTER MIDNIGHT. A SECONDARY SHORTWAVE MOVES THROUGH THE PACIFIC TROUGH
AS IT PASSES THROUGH ARIZONA TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY KEEPING THE
CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND COOL TEMPERATURES IN THE FORECAST. A DRIER
WEATHER PATTERN SHOULD RETURN FROM THURSDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS
HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS ALONG THE WEST COAST.

&&

.AVIATION...
FOR THE 12Z PACKAGE...A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE STATE FROM WEST TO
EAST TODAY CAUSING MODERATE TO HEAVY PRECIPITATION WITH WIDESPREAD
IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY. SNOW LEVELS 7-8 KFT
MSL AHEAD OF THE FRONT...FALLING TO 5-6KFT MSL BEHIND THE FRONT.
PRECIPITATION BECOMING SHOWERY AND DECREASING MOST AREAS BY THIS
EVENING. STRONG S-SW WIND 20-30KT G40-45KT GENERALLY NORTH OF
MOGOLLON RIM 17Z-00Z. AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR TAF
AMENDMENTS.

&&

.FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO 7 PM MST THIS
EVENING FOR AZZ015.

WIND ADVISORY FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 5 PM MST THIS
AFTERNOON FOR AZZ010-012>014-040.

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 1 AM MST
TUESDAY FOR AZZ009-039.

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 2 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 1 AM MST
TUESDAY FOR AZZ011.

WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 1 AM MST
TUESDAY FOR AZZ016>018.

WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 7 PM MST THIS EVENING FOR AZZ004-
006-007.

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO 7 PM MST
THIS EVENING FOR AZZ008.

&&

$$

PUBLIC.........MCS
AVIATION.......JJ

FOR NORTHERN ARIZONA WEATHER INFORMATION VISIT
WEATHER.GOV/FLAGSTAFF






000
FXUS65 KFGZ 021153
AFDFGZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ
453 AM MST MON MAR 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A PACIFIC STORM SYSTEM WILL BRING WIDESPREAD RAIN AND SNOW TO
NORTHERN ARIZONA TODAY. SIGNIFICANT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS ARE
EXPECTED ABOVE THE 6000 FOOT ELEVATION LEVEL WITH HAZARDOUS
WINTER DRIVING CONDITIONS. PRECIPITATION WILL DECREASE TONIGHT...THOUGH
A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS REMAINS IN THE FORECAST THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
DRIER AND WARMER WEATHER RETURNS BY THURSDAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

...SIGNIFICANT WINTER WEATHER ACROSS THE HIGH COUNTRY TODAY...

A ROBUST COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH A DEEP PACIFIC LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM STRETCHES FROM NEAR YUMA ALL THE WAY TO THE UTAH BORDER
EARLY THIS MORNING WITH WIDESPREAD RAIN BEING REPORTED ALONG THE
FRONT. FURTHER EAST...SCATTERED LIGHT TO MODERATE CONVECTIVE
SHOWERS CONTINUE TO DEVELOP ACROSS CENTRAL ARIZONA IN THE WARM
SECTOR OF THE STORM SYSTEM WITH ELEVATED SNOW LEVELS RANGING FROM
7000 TO 8000 FEET. SNOW LEVELS WILL REMAIN HIGH IN THE RELATIVELY
WARM AIR AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT THIS MORNING. PRECIPITATION WILL
INCREASE IN COVERAGE AS THE FRONT MOVES INTO WESTERN YAVAPAI AND
COCONINO COUNTIES THIS MORNING...THROUGH CENTRAL ARIZONA
MIDDAY...AND INTO EASTERN ARIZONA THIS AFTERNOON. EXPECT MODERATE
TO PERIODS OF HEAVY RAIN AND SNOW ALONG THE COLD FRONT WITH SNOW
LEVELS DROPPING TO AROUND 5500-6000 FEET BEHIND THE FRONT.

THE MAIN UPDATES THIS MORNING WERE TO FINE TUNE FRONTAL TIMING AND
TRANSITION OF RAIN TO SNOW IN THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS. THE FRONTAL
BAND OF PRECIPITATION WILL LIKELY START AS RAIN FOR MANY AREAS
BEFORE TRANSITIONING TO SNOW BEHIND THE FRONT. A SLIGHTLY LATER
ONSET OF SNOW FROM THE GRAND CANYON TO FLAGSTAFF REGIONS HAS
RESULTED IN A SLIGHT DOWNWARD TREND IN FORECAST SNOWFALL AMOUNTS.
HOWEVER...SNOWFALL RATES WILL BE QUITE HIGH ALONG THE FRONTAL
ZONE...LIKELY AN INCH PER HOUR FOR AT LEAST A FEW HOURS. IN
ADDITION...STRONG SOUTHERLY WINDS UP TO 40 TO 45 MPH AHEAD OF AND
ALONG THE FRONT WILL GENERATE AREAS OF BLOWING SNOW WITH VERY POOR
VISIBILITY AND HAZARDOUS ROAD CONDITIONS. WINTER STORM WARNINGS
AND ADVISORIES ARE IN EFFECT FOR MUCH OF THE HIGH COUNTRY THROUGH
THIS EVENING. WINDS WILL BE EVEN STRONGER GUSTING TO 50 MPH NORTH
OF THE MOGOLLON RIM THIS AFTERNOON WHERE A WIND ADVISORY IS IN
EFFECT.

ADDITIONAL PRECIPITATION TOTALS (RAIN AND MELTED SNOW) WILL
GENERALLY RANGE FROM 1 TO 1.5 INCHES FROM THE GRAND CANYON REGION
ALONG THE MOGOLLON RIM AND SOUTH INTO YAVAPAI AND NORTHERN GILA
COUNTIES. ALREADY SATURATED GROUND FROM PREVIOUS RAINFALL WILL
LEAD TO A THREAT OF SOME LOCALIZED FLOODING IN THE LOWER
ELEVATIONS OF YAVAPAI AND NORTHERN GILA COUNTY...ESPECIALLY DURING
THE TIME OF HEAVIEST RAIN ALONG THE FRONT.

SHOWERS WILL DECREASE IN COVERAGE LATE THIS EVENING AND ESPECIALLY
AFTER MIDNIGHT. A SECONDARY SHORTWAVE MOVES THROUGH THE PACIFIC TROUGH
AS IT PASSES THROUGH ARIZONA TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY KEEPING THE
CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND COOL TEMPERATURES IN THE FORECAST. A DRIER
WEATHER PATTERN SHOULD RETURN FROM THURSDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS
HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS ALONG THE WEST COAST.

&&

.AVIATION...
FOR THE 12Z PACKAGE...A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE STATE FROM WEST TO
EAST TODAY CAUSING MODERATE TO HEAVY PRECIPITATION WITH WIDESPREAD
IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY. SNOW LEVELS 7-8 KFT
MSL AHEAD OF THE FRONT...FALLING TO 5-6KFT MSL BEHIND THE FRONT.
PRECIPITATION BECOMING SHOWERY AND DECREASING MOST AREAS BY THIS
EVENING. STRONG S-SW WIND 20-30KT G40-45KT GENERALLY NORTH OF
MOGOLLON RIM 17Z-00Z. AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR TAF
AMENDMENTS.

&&

.FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO 7 PM MST THIS
EVENING FOR AZZ015.

WIND ADVISORY FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 5 PM MST THIS
AFTERNOON FOR AZZ010-012>014-040.

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 1 AM MST
TUESDAY FOR AZZ009-039.

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 2 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 1 AM MST
TUESDAY FOR AZZ011.

WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 1 AM MST
TUESDAY FOR AZZ016>018.

WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 7 PM MST THIS EVENING FOR AZZ004-
006-007.

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO 7 PM MST
THIS EVENING FOR AZZ008.

&&

$$

PUBLIC.........MCS
AVIATION.......JJ

FOR NORTHERN ARIZONA WEATHER INFORMATION VISIT
WEATHER.GOV/FLAGSTAFF






000
FXUS65 KFGZ 021153
AFDFGZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ
453 AM MST MON MAR 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A PACIFIC STORM SYSTEM WILL BRING WIDESPREAD RAIN AND SNOW TO
NORTHERN ARIZONA TODAY. SIGNIFICANT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS ARE
EXPECTED ABOVE THE 6000 FOOT ELEVATION LEVEL WITH HAZARDOUS
WINTER DRIVING CONDITIONS. PRECIPITATION WILL DECREASE TONIGHT...THOUGH
A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS REMAINS IN THE FORECAST THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
DRIER AND WARMER WEATHER RETURNS BY THURSDAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

...SIGNIFICANT WINTER WEATHER ACROSS THE HIGH COUNTRY TODAY...

A ROBUST COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH A DEEP PACIFIC LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM STRETCHES FROM NEAR YUMA ALL THE WAY TO THE UTAH BORDER
EARLY THIS MORNING WITH WIDESPREAD RAIN BEING REPORTED ALONG THE
FRONT. FURTHER EAST...SCATTERED LIGHT TO MODERATE CONVECTIVE
SHOWERS CONTINUE TO DEVELOP ACROSS CENTRAL ARIZONA IN THE WARM
SECTOR OF THE STORM SYSTEM WITH ELEVATED SNOW LEVELS RANGING FROM
7000 TO 8000 FEET. SNOW LEVELS WILL REMAIN HIGH IN THE RELATIVELY
WARM AIR AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT THIS MORNING. PRECIPITATION WILL
INCREASE IN COVERAGE AS THE FRONT MOVES INTO WESTERN YAVAPAI AND
COCONINO COUNTIES THIS MORNING...THROUGH CENTRAL ARIZONA
MIDDAY...AND INTO EASTERN ARIZONA THIS AFTERNOON. EXPECT MODERATE
TO PERIODS OF HEAVY RAIN AND SNOW ALONG THE COLD FRONT WITH SNOW
LEVELS DROPPING TO AROUND 5500-6000 FEET BEHIND THE FRONT.

THE MAIN UPDATES THIS MORNING WERE TO FINE TUNE FRONTAL TIMING AND
TRANSITION OF RAIN TO SNOW IN THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS. THE FRONTAL
BAND OF PRECIPITATION WILL LIKELY START AS RAIN FOR MANY AREAS
BEFORE TRANSITIONING TO SNOW BEHIND THE FRONT. A SLIGHTLY LATER
ONSET OF SNOW FROM THE GRAND CANYON TO FLAGSTAFF REGIONS HAS
RESULTED IN A SLIGHT DOWNWARD TREND IN FORECAST SNOWFALL AMOUNTS.
HOWEVER...SNOWFALL RATES WILL BE QUITE HIGH ALONG THE FRONTAL
ZONE...LIKELY AN INCH PER HOUR FOR AT LEAST A FEW HOURS. IN
ADDITION...STRONG SOUTHERLY WINDS UP TO 40 TO 45 MPH AHEAD OF AND
ALONG THE FRONT WILL GENERATE AREAS OF BLOWING SNOW WITH VERY POOR
VISIBILITY AND HAZARDOUS ROAD CONDITIONS. WINTER STORM WARNINGS
AND ADVISORIES ARE IN EFFECT FOR MUCH OF THE HIGH COUNTRY THROUGH
THIS EVENING. WINDS WILL BE EVEN STRONGER GUSTING TO 50 MPH NORTH
OF THE MOGOLLON RIM THIS AFTERNOON WHERE A WIND ADVISORY IS IN
EFFECT.

ADDITIONAL PRECIPITATION TOTALS (RAIN AND MELTED SNOW) WILL
GENERALLY RANGE FROM 1 TO 1.5 INCHES FROM THE GRAND CANYON REGION
ALONG THE MOGOLLON RIM AND SOUTH INTO YAVAPAI AND NORTHERN GILA
COUNTIES. ALREADY SATURATED GROUND FROM PREVIOUS RAINFALL WILL
LEAD TO A THREAT OF SOME LOCALIZED FLOODING IN THE LOWER
ELEVATIONS OF YAVAPAI AND NORTHERN GILA COUNTY...ESPECIALLY DURING
THE TIME OF HEAVIEST RAIN ALONG THE FRONT.

SHOWERS WILL DECREASE IN COVERAGE LATE THIS EVENING AND ESPECIALLY
AFTER MIDNIGHT. A SECONDARY SHORTWAVE MOVES THROUGH THE PACIFIC TROUGH
AS IT PASSES THROUGH ARIZONA TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY KEEPING THE
CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND COOL TEMPERATURES IN THE FORECAST. A DRIER
WEATHER PATTERN SHOULD RETURN FROM THURSDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS
HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS ALONG THE WEST COAST.

&&

.AVIATION...
FOR THE 12Z PACKAGE...A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE STATE FROM WEST TO
EAST TODAY CAUSING MODERATE TO HEAVY PRECIPITATION WITH WIDESPREAD
IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY. SNOW LEVELS 7-8 KFT
MSL AHEAD OF THE FRONT...FALLING TO 5-6KFT MSL BEHIND THE FRONT.
PRECIPITATION BECOMING SHOWERY AND DECREASING MOST AREAS BY THIS
EVENING. STRONG S-SW WIND 20-30KT G40-45KT GENERALLY NORTH OF
MOGOLLON RIM 17Z-00Z. AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR TAF
AMENDMENTS.

&&

.FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO 7 PM MST THIS
EVENING FOR AZZ015.

WIND ADVISORY FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 5 PM MST THIS
AFTERNOON FOR AZZ010-012>014-040.

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 1 AM MST
TUESDAY FOR AZZ009-039.

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 2 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 1 AM MST
TUESDAY FOR AZZ011.

WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 1 AM MST
TUESDAY FOR AZZ016>018.

WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 7 PM MST THIS EVENING FOR AZZ004-
006-007.

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO 7 PM MST
THIS EVENING FOR AZZ008.

&&

$$

PUBLIC.........MCS
AVIATION.......JJ

FOR NORTHERN ARIZONA WEATHER INFORMATION VISIT
WEATHER.GOV/FLAGSTAFF






000
FXUS65 KFGZ 021153
AFDFGZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ
453 AM MST MON MAR 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A PACIFIC STORM SYSTEM WILL BRING WIDESPREAD RAIN AND SNOW TO
NORTHERN ARIZONA TODAY. SIGNIFICANT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS ARE
EXPECTED ABOVE THE 6000 FOOT ELEVATION LEVEL WITH HAZARDOUS
WINTER DRIVING CONDITIONS. PRECIPITATION WILL DECREASE TONIGHT...THOUGH
A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS REMAINS IN THE FORECAST THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
DRIER AND WARMER WEATHER RETURNS BY THURSDAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

...SIGNIFICANT WINTER WEATHER ACROSS THE HIGH COUNTRY TODAY...

A ROBUST COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH A DEEP PACIFIC LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM STRETCHES FROM NEAR YUMA ALL THE WAY TO THE UTAH BORDER
EARLY THIS MORNING WITH WIDESPREAD RAIN BEING REPORTED ALONG THE
FRONT. FURTHER EAST...SCATTERED LIGHT TO MODERATE CONVECTIVE
SHOWERS CONTINUE TO DEVELOP ACROSS CENTRAL ARIZONA IN THE WARM
SECTOR OF THE STORM SYSTEM WITH ELEVATED SNOW LEVELS RANGING FROM
7000 TO 8000 FEET. SNOW LEVELS WILL REMAIN HIGH IN THE RELATIVELY
WARM AIR AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT THIS MORNING. PRECIPITATION WILL
INCREASE IN COVERAGE AS THE FRONT MOVES INTO WESTERN YAVAPAI AND
COCONINO COUNTIES THIS MORNING...THROUGH CENTRAL ARIZONA
MIDDAY...AND INTO EASTERN ARIZONA THIS AFTERNOON. EXPECT MODERATE
TO PERIODS OF HEAVY RAIN AND SNOW ALONG THE COLD FRONT WITH SNOW
LEVELS DROPPING TO AROUND 5500-6000 FEET BEHIND THE FRONT.

THE MAIN UPDATES THIS MORNING WERE TO FINE TUNE FRONTAL TIMING AND
TRANSITION OF RAIN TO SNOW IN THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS. THE FRONTAL
BAND OF PRECIPITATION WILL LIKELY START AS RAIN FOR MANY AREAS
BEFORE TRANSITIONING TO SNOW BEHIND THE FRONT. A SLIGHTLY LATER
ONSET OF SNOW FROM THE GRAND CANYON TO FLAGSTAFF REGIONS HAS
RESULTED IN A SLIGHT DOWNWARD TREND IN FORECAST SNOWFALL AMOUNTS.
HOWEVER...SNOWFALL RATES WILL BE QUITE HIGH ALONG THE FRONTAL
ZONE...LIKELY AN INCH PER HOUR FOR AT LEAST A FEW HOURS. IN
ADDITION...STRONG SOUTHERLY WINDS UP TO 40 TO 45 MPH AHEAD OF AND
ALONG THE FRONT WILL GENERATE AREAS OF BLOWING SNOW WITH VERY POOR
VISIBILITY AND HAZARDOUS ROAD CONDITIONS. WINTER STORM WARNINGS
AND ADVISORIES ARE IN EFFECT FOR MUCH OF THE HIGH COUNTRY THROUGH
THIS EVENING. WINDS WILL BE EVEN STRONGER GUSTING TO 50 MPH NORTH
OF THE MOGOLLON RIM THIS AFTERNOON WHERE A WIND ADVISORY IS IN
EFFECT.

ADDITIONAL PRECIPITATION TOTALS (RAIN AND MELTED SNOW) WILL
GENERALLY RANGE FROM 1 TO 1.5 INCHES FROM THE GRAND CANYON REGION
ALONG THE MOGOLLON RIM AND SOUTH INTO YAVAPAI AND NORTHERN GILA
COUNTIES. ALREADY SATURATED GROUND FROM PREVIOUS RAINFALL WILL
LEAD TO A THREAT OF SOME LOCALIZED FLOODING IN THE LOWER
ELEVATIONS OF YAVAPAI AND NORTHERN GILA COUNTY...ESPECIALLY DURING
THE TIME OF HEAVIEST RAIN ALONG THE FRONT.

SHOWERS WILL DECREASE IN COVERAGE LATE THIS EVENING AND ESPECIALLY
AFTER MIDNIGHT. A SECONDARY SHORTWAVE MOVES THROUGH THE PACIFIC TROUGH
AS IT PASSES THROUGH ARIZONA TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY KEEPING THE
CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND COOL TEMPERATURES IN THE FORECAST. A DRIER
WEATHER PATTERN SHOULD RETURN FROM THURSDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS
HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS ALONG THE WEST COAST.

&&

.AVIATION...
FOR THE 12Z PACKAGE...A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE STATE FROM WEST TO
EAST TODAY CAUSING MODERATE TO HEAVY PRECIPITATION WITH WIDESPREAD
IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY. SNOW LEVELS 7-8 KFT
MSL AHEAD OF THE FRONT...FALLING TO 5-6KFT MSL BEHIND THE FRONT.
PRECIPITATION BECOMING SHOWERY AND DECREASING MOST AREAS BY THIS
EVENING. STRONG S-SW WIND 20-30KT G40-45KT GENERALLY NORTH OF
MOGOLLON RIM 17Z-00Z. AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR TAF
AMENDMENTS.

&&

.FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO 7 PM MST THIS
EVENING FOR AZZ015.

WIND ADVISORY FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 5 PM MST THIS
AFTERNOON FOR AZZ010-012>014-040.

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 1 AM MST
TUESDAY FOR AZZ009-039.

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 2 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 1 AM MST
TUESDAY FOR AZZ011.

WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 1 AM MST
TUESDAY FOR AZZ016>018.

WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 7 PM MST THIS EVENING FOR AZZ004-
006-007.

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO 7 PM MST
THIS EVENING FOR AZZ008.

&&

$$

PUBLIC.........MCS
AVIATION.......JJ

FOR NORTHERN ARIZONA WEATHER INFORMATION VISIT
WEATHER.GOV/FLAGSTAFF






000
FXUS65 KPSR 021126
AFDPSR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PHOENIX AZ
425 AM MST MON MAR 2 2015

...UPDATED AVIATION AND FIRE WEATHER...

...POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAIN AFFECTING THE SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH
CENTRAL AZ DESERTS THROUGH LATE TODAY...

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION WILL EXPAND FROM SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA INTO
ARIZONA TODAY...AND WILL SLOWLY SHIFT EASTWARD DURING THE COURSE OF
THE DAY. PERIODS OF MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN ARE
ANTICIPATED...ESPECIALLY OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN AND FOOTHILL
LOCATIONS OF SOUTH CENTRAL ARIZONA. THERE WILL ALSO BE A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS AS WELL...MAINLY DURING THE AFTERNOON AND
EARLY EVENING HOURS. COOLER TEMPERATURES WILL ALSO ACCOMPANY THIS
SYSTEM WITH BELOW NORMAL READINGS EXPECTED FROM TODAY THROUGH MID
WEEK. A RETURN TO ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES IS LIKELY BY LATE WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

TODAY AND TONIGHT...

THE WELL-ADVERTISED UPPER-LEVEL LOW CENTER...THAT HAS BEEN DROPPING
SOUTHWARD ALONG THE WEST COAST OVER THE LAST FEW DAYS...IS FINALLY
BEGINNING TO MOVE OFF TO THE EAST...INTO SOUTHERN CA THIS MORNING AS
THE LONG-AWAITED UPSTREAM KICKER...MOVES SOUTHWARD ACROSS NORTHERN
CA TOWARDS THIS LOW CENTER. THIS SYSTEM...WHICH BROUGHT RAINFALL
AMOUNTS RANGING FROM 0.25 INCH TO JUST OVER 1.00 INCH TO MUCH OF SE
CA YESTERDAY AND LAST NIGHT...WHICH WAS FORECAST WELL BY THE GFS
MODEL OUTPUT...IS EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO WESTERN ARIZONA THIS
MORNING...THEN ACROSS SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING.
NOW THAT THE MAIN UPPER LOW IS FINALLY SHIFTING TO THE EAST...THE
BAROCLINIC LEAF AND ASSOCIATED AREA OF RAINFALL IS ALSO MOVING INTO
EXTREME WESTERN ARIZONA AS OF THIS HOUR...BRINGING LIGHT TO MODERATE
RAINFALL TO PARTS OF YUMA AND LA PAZ COUNTY. THE LATEST GFS AND HRRR
HI-RES MODELS ARE NOW IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE TIMING OF THIS SYSTEM
AS IT CONTINUES TO MOVE EASTWARD ACROSS AZ TODAY...WITH BOTH OF THEM
BRINGING RAINFALL TO THE GREATER PHX AREA AROUND DAYBREAK/DURING THE
MORNING COMMUTE...THEN INTO THE EASTERNMOST PORTION OF OUR CWA
(SOUTHERN GILA COUNTY) BY EARLY AFTERNOON.

ALTHOUGH THIS HAS TURNED INTO A FAIRLY PROGRESSIVE SYSTEM (AFTER A
DELAYED ARRIVAL)...IT STILL LOOKS LIKE A FAIRLY ROBUST SYSTEM...AND
IT IS STILL EXPECTED TO BRING LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN TO SOUTH-CENTRAL
ARIZONA TODAY...ESPECIALLY OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN NORTH AND EAST OF
PHOENIX. THIS IS DUE TO THE FACT THAT A PLUME OF VERY MOIST
AIR...WITH PWATS AROUND ONE INCH IS EXPECTED TO STREAM NORTH OVER
THE REGION TODAY ALONG AND JUST AHEAD OF THE MAIN SURFACE
FRONT/BAROCLINIC ZONE. THIS DEEP MOISTURE...COMBINED WITH GOOD
BAROCLINICITY...STRONG LOW-LEVEL UPSLOPE SOUTHERLY FLOW (850MB WINDS
IN THE 30-40KT RANGE)...AND INFLUENCE FROM THE RIGHT-ENTRANCE REGION
OF THE JET IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE A RATHER SOLID BAND OF
MODERATE-HEAVY RAINFALL DURING ITS PASSAGE ACROSS SOUTH-CENTRAL
ARIZONA. ALSO...EVEN THOUGH THERE IS NOW A WHOLE LOT OF CAPE IN THE
FORECAST SOUNDINGS (A COUPLE HUNDRED JOULES/KG AT MOST)...THERE
APPEARS TO BE ENOUGH LIFT TO TRIGGER A FEW EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS
THIS AFTERNOON AS THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH. THE COMBINATION OF THE
GENERAL RAINFALL...RANGING FROM AROUND 1/2 INCH OVER WESTERN
MARICOPA COUNTY TO AS MUCH AS 2.00 INCHES IN THE MOST FAVORED
LOCATIONS OVER EXTREME NORTH AND NORTHEAST MARICOPA COUNTY...WITH
THESE HEAVIER SHOWERS...WILL LIKELY PRODUCE AT LEAST SOME LOCAL
FLOODING PROBLEMS IN OUR WASHES...HIGHWAY DIPS...AND LOW-LYING
AREAS. THERE COULD ALSO BE SOME RISES IN SOME OF OUR SMALLER CREEKS
AND STREAMS...ESPECIALLY OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN. SNOWFALL...IF
ANY...IS STILL EXPECTED TO BE CONFINED TO OUR HIGHEST PEAKS...WHERE
A DUSTING TO PERHAPS AN INCH COULD FALL BEFORE THE PRECIP ENDS THIS
EVENING. ON THE OTHER HAND...MUCH GREATER SNOWFALL AMOUNTS ARE
EXPECTED FURTHER NORTH AND EAST...FROM THE FLAGSTAFF AREA EAST
ACROSS THE RIM COUNTY INTO THE WHITE MTNS.

IT NOW APPEARS THAT THE RAINFALL SHOULD DIMINISH RATHER RAPIDLY THIS
EVENING FROM WEST TO EAST AS THE MAIN UPPER TROF MOVES OFF TO THE
EAST AND THE LOW-LEVEL SOUTHERLY JET RAPIDLY BREAKS DOWN AND SHIFTS
TO A MUCH LIGHTER WESTERLY FLOW...WITH JUST A FEW LEFT-OVER
SPRINKLES OR LIGHT SHOWERS REMAINING BY LATE TONIGHT...MAINLY OVER
SOUTHERN GILA COUNTY. TEMPERATURES TODAY ARE EXPECTED TO BE MUCH
COOLER THAN WHAT WE SAW ON SUNDAY...WITH MANY LOWER DESERT LOCATIONS
ACROSS SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA STAYING DOWN IN THE 50S THROUGH MUCH OF
THE DAY. LOWS TONIGHT ARE EXPECTED TO FALL INTO THE 40S AT MOST
LOWER DESERT LOCATIONS...WHICH IS NOW A FEW DEGREES BELOW NORMAL FOR
THIS TIME OF YEAR.

TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...
A MUCH DRIER WEATHER REGIME IS EXPECTED AS NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT
BECOMES ESTABLISHED ACROSS THE REGION...WITH JUST A FEW SHOWERS
POSSIBLE FROM TIME-TO-TIME OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN EAST OF
PHOENIX...AS WEAK SHORTWAVES EMBEDDED IN THIS NW FLOW MOVE ACROSS
EXTREME EASTERN AZ. TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO MAKE A SLOW REBOUND
AS 500MB HEIGHTS RISE...WITH HIGHS RETURNING TO NEAR-NORMAL VALUES
BY THURSDAY.

FRIDAY INTO NEXT WEEKEND...
A WARMING TREND IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THIS PERIOD UNDER
MAINLY CLEAR SKIES AS HIGH PRESSURE STRENGTHENS OVER THE
REGION...WITH A DECENT CHANCE FOR HIGHS IN THE 80S ACROSS THE LOWER
DESERTS BY NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION...
SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA INCLUDING KPHX...KIWA AND KSDL...
WIDESPREAD IMPACTS INCLUDING LOW CIGS...RAIN SHOWERS...LOWERED
VSBY...AND GUSTY WIND SHIFTS WILL BE COMMON ACROSS CNTRL ARIZONA
TERMINALS THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. CIGS HAVE ALREADY STARTED LOWERING
BLO 6K FT WITH MTN OBSCURATION PREVAILING THROUGH THE DAY.
CONFIDENCE IS ONLY MODEST IN TIMING THE HEAVIEST SQUALLS INTO
KPHX...THOUGH MOST HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS SUGGEST A COUPLE HOURS
AROUND 18Z WITH PREVAILING MVFR CONDITIONS ALONG WITH A DISTINCT
WIND SHIFT. SOME BRIEF PERIODS OF IFR MAY ALSO BE POSSIBLE IN THE
HEAVIEST SHOWERS...THOUGH CONFIDENCE AND TEMPORAL DURATION TOO LOW
TO MENTION IN THIS TAF PACKAGE. CONFIDENCE IS VERY LOW BEYOND
00Z...AND SOME ADDITIONAL SCT SHRA AND CIGS FALLING BACK BLO 6K FT
MAY BE POSSIBLE.

SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA AND SOUTHWEST ARIZONA INCLUDING KIPL AND KBLH...
PREVAILING RAIN WILL MOVE EAST OF TERMINAL SITES BY 15Z...HOWEVER
LINGER LOW LEVEL MOISTURE HAS ALLOWED PATCHY MVFR TO LIFR CIGS TO
DEVELOP. NOT A LOT OF CONFIDENCE IN HOW LONG THESE LOWER CATEGORIES
WILL PERSIST...THOUGH MODELS SUGGEST ONLY A BRIEF TIME. WITH THE
UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM MOVING THROUGH SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA THIS
AFTERNOON...CONFIDENCE IS BETTER THAN GUSTY WEST WINDS WILL DEVELOP
WITH SOME SHRA REDEVELOPMENT. CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE QUICKLY AFTER
SUNSET.


AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDED TAFS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...
STRONG HIGH PRESSURE AND MUCH DRIER CONDITIONS WILL MOVE BACK INTO
THE DISTRICT DURING THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK. TEMPERATURES WILL
REBOUND BACK INTO A NORMAL TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL RANGE...WHILE
AFTERNOON HUMIDITY LEVELS RETURN INTO A 15 TO 25 PERCENT RANGE.
OVERNIGHT RECOVERY WILL BE GOOD. PERIODS OF GUSTY NORTH WINDS DOWN
THE COLORADO RIVER VALLEY WILL BE LIKELY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...WHILE
OCCASIONAL PERIODS OF STRONGER EASTERLY WINDS OVER RIDGE TOPS OF
CENTRAL ARIZONA MAY BE COMMON LATE IN THE WEEK.

&&

.PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

AZ...FLOOD WATCH FROM 5 PM TODAY THROUGH 5 PM MONDAY AZZ020>021.
     FLOOD WATCH FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT THROUGH 8 PM MONDAY
     AZZ022>024.

CA...FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 12 PM MONDAY CAZ031>033.

&&

$$

VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/PHOENIX

DISCUSSION...PERCHA
AVIATION...MO
FIRE WEATHER...MO







000
FXUS65 KPSR 021126
AFDPSR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PHOENIX AZ
425 AM MST MON MAR 2 2015

...UPDATED AVIATION AND FIRE WEATHER...

...POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAIN AFFECTING THE SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH
CENTRAL AZ DESERTS THROUGH LATE TODAY...

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION WILL EXPAND FROM SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA INTO
ARIZONA TODAY...AND WILL SLOWLY SHIFT EASTWARD DURING THE COURSE OF
THE DAY. PERIODS OF MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN ARE
ANTICIPATED...ESPECIALLY OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN AND FOOTHILL
LOCATIONS OF SOUTH CENTRAL ARIZONA. THERE WILL ALSO BE A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS AS WELL...MAINLY DURING THE AFTERNOON AND
EARLY EVENING HOURS. COOLER TEMPERATURES WILL ALSO ACCOMPANY THIS
SYSTEM WITH BELOW NORMAL READINGS EXPECTED FROM TODAY THROUGH MID
WEEK. A RETURN TO ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES IS LIKELY BY LATE WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

TODAY AND TONIGHT...

THE WELL-ADVERTISED UPPER-LEVEL LOW CENTER...THAT HAS BEEN DROPPING
SOUTHWARD ALONG THE WEST COAST OVER THE LAST FEW DAYS...IS FINALLY
BEGINNING TO MOVE OFF TO THE EAST...INTO SOUTHERN CA THIS MORNING AS
THE LONG-AWAITED UPSTREAM KICKER...MOVES SOUTHWARD ACROSS NORTHERN
CA TOWARDS THIS LOW CENTER. THIS SYSTEM...WHICH BROUGHT RAINFALL
AMOUNTS RANGING FROM 0.25 INCH TO JUST OVER 1.00 INCH TO MUCH OF SE
CA YESTERDAY AND LAST NIGHT...WHICH WAS FORECAST WELL BY THE GFS
MODEL OUTPUT...IS EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO WESTERN ARIZONA THIS
MORNING...THEN ACROSS SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING.
NOW THAT THE MAIN UPPER LOW IS FINALLY SHIFTING TO THE EAST...THE
BAROCLINIC LEAF AND ASSOCIATED AREA OF RAINFALL IS ALSO MOVING INTO
EXTREME WESTERN ARIZONA AS OF THIS HOUR...BRINGING LIGHT TO MODERATE
RAINFALL TO PARTS OF YUMA AND LA PAZ COUNTY. THE LATEST GFS AND HRRR
HI-RES MODELS ARE NOW IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE TIMING OF THIS SYSTEM
AS IT CONTINUES TO MOVE EASTWARD ACROSS AZ TODAY...WITH BOTH OF THEM
BRINGING RAINFALL TO THE GREATER PHX AREA AROUND DAYBREAK/DURING THE
MORNING COMMUTE...THEN INTO THE EASTERNMOST PORTION OF OUR CWA
(SOUTHERN GILA COUNTY) BY EARLY AFTERNOON.

ALTHOUGH THIS HAS TURNED INTO A FAIRLY PROGRESSIVE SYSTEM (AFTER A
DELAYED ARRIVAL)...IT STILL LOOKS LIKE A FAIRLY ROBUST SYSTEM...AND
IT IS STILL EXPECTED TO BRING LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN TO SOUTH-CENTRAL
ARIZONA TODAY...ESPECIALLY OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN NORTH AND EAST OF
PHOENIX. THIS IS DUE TO THE FACT THAT A PLUME OF VERY MOIST
AIR...WITH PWATS AROUND ONE INCH IS EXPECTED TO STREAM NORTH OVER
THE REGION TODAY ALONG AND JUST AHEAD OF THE MAIN SURFACE
FRONT/BAROCLINIC ZONE. THIS DEEP MOISTURE...COMBINED WITH GOOD
BAROCLINICITY...STRONG LOW-LEVEL UPSLOPE SOUTHERLY FLOW (850MB WINDS
IN THE 30-40KT RANGE)...AND INFLUENCE FROM THE RIGHT-ENTRANCE REGION
OF THE JET IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE A RATHER SOLID BAND OF
MODERATE-HEAVY RAINFALL DURING ITS PASSAGE ACROSS SOUTH-CENTRAL
ARIZONA. ALSO...EVEN THOUGH THERE IS NOW A WHOLE LOT OF CAPE IN THE
FORECAST SOUNDINGS (A COUPLE HUNDRED JOULES/KG AT MOST)...THERE
APPEARS TO BE ENOUGH LIFT TO TRIGGER A FEW EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS
THIS AFTERNOON AS THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH. THE COMBINATION OF THE
GENERAL RAINFALL...RANGING FROM AROUND 1/2 INCH OVER WESTERN
MARICOPA COUNTY TO AS MUCH AS 2.00 INCHES IN THE MOST FAVORED
LOCATIONS OVER EXTREME NORTH AND NORTHEAST MARICOPA COUNTY...WITH
THESE HEAVIER SHOWERS...WILL LIKELY PRODUCE AT LEAST SOME LOCAL
FLOODING PROBLEMS IN OUR WASHES...HIGHWAY DIPS...AND LOW-LYING
AREAS. THERE COULD ALSO BE SOME RISES IN SOME OF OUR SMALLER CREEKS
AND STREAMS...ESPECIALLY OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN. SNOWFALL...IF
ANY...IS STILL EXPECTED TO BE CONFINED TO OUR HIGHEST PEAKS...WHERE
A DUSTING TO PERHAPS AN INCH COULD FALL BEFORE THE PRECIP ENDS THIS
EVENING. ON THE OTHER HAND...MUCH GREATER SNOWFALL AMOUNTS ARE
EXPECTED FURTHER NORTH AND EAST...FROM THE FLAGSTAFF AREA EAST
ACROSS THE RIM COUNTY INTO THE WHITE MTNS.

IT NOW APPEARS THAT THE RAINFALL SHOULD DIMINISH RATHER RAPIDLY THIS
EVENING FROM WEST TO EAST AS THE MAIN UPPER TROF MOVES OFF TO THE
EAST AND THE LOW-LEVEL SOUTHERLY JET RAPIDLY BREAKS DOWN AND SHIFTS
TO A MUCH LIGHTER WESTERLY FLOW...WITH JUST A FEW LEFT-OVER
SPRINKLES OR LIGHT SHOWERS REMAINING BY LATE TONIGHT...MAINLY OVER
SOUTHERN GILA COUNTY. TEMPERATURES TODAY ARE EXPECTED TO BE MUCH
COOLER THAN WHAT WE SAW ON SUNDAY...WITH MANY LOWER DESERT LOCATIONS
ACROSS SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA STAYING DOWN IN THE 50S THROUGH MUCH OF
THE DAY. LOWS TONIGHT ARE EXPECTED TO FALL INTO THE 40S AT MOST
LOWER DESERT LOCATIONS...WHICH IS NOW A FEW DEGREES BELOW NORMAL FOR
THIS TIME OF YEAR.

TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...
A MUCH DRIER WEATHER REGIME IS EXPECTED AS NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT
BECOMES ESTABLISHED ACROSS THE REGION...WITH JUST A FEW SHOWERS
POSSIBLE FROM TIME-TO-TIME OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN EAST OF
PHOENIX...AS WEAK SHORTWAVES EMBEDDED IN THIS NW FLOW MOVE ACROSS
EXTREME EASTERN AZ. TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO MAKE A SLOW REBOUND
AS 500MB HEIGHTS RISE...WITH HIGHS RETURNING TO NEAR-NORMAL VALUES
BY THURSDAY.

FRIDAY INTO NEXT WEEKEND...
A WARMING TREND IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THIS PERIOD UNDER
MAINLY CLEAR SKIES AS HIGH PRESSURE STRENGTHENS OVER THE
REGION...WITH A DECENT CHANCE FOR HIGHS IN THE 80S ACROSS THE LOWER
DESERTS BY NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION...
SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA INCLUDING KPHX...KIWA AND KSDL...
WIDESPREAD IMPACTS INCLUDING LOW CIGS...RAIN SHOWERS...LOWERED
VSBY...AND GUSTY WIND SHIFTS WILL BE COMMON ACROSS CNTRL ARIZONA
TERMINALS THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. CIGS HAVE ALREADY STARTED LOWERING
BLO 6K FT WITH MTN OBSCURATION PREVAILING THROUGH THE DAY.
CONFIDENCE IS ONLY MODEST IN TIMING THE HEAVIEST SQUALLS INTO
KPHX...THOUGH MOST HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS SUGGEST A COUPLE HOURS
AROUND 18Z WITH PREVAILING MVFR CONDITIONS ALONG WITH A DISTINCT
WIND SHIFT. SOME BRIEF PERIODS OF IFR MAY ALSO BE POSSIBLE IN THE
HEAVIEST SHOWERS...THOUGH CONFIDENCE AND TEMPORAL DURATION TOO LOW
TO MENTION IN THIS TAF PACKAGE. CONFIDENCE IS VERY LOW BEYOND
00Z...AND SOME ADDITIONAL SCT SHRA AND CIGS FALLING BACK BLO 6K FT
MAY BE POSSIBLE.

SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA AND SOUTHWEST ARIZONA INCLUDING KIPL AND KBLH...
PREVAILING RAIN WILL MOVE EAST OF TERMINAL SITES BY 15Z...HOWEVER
LINGER LOW LEVEL MOISTURE HAS ALLOWED PATCHY MVFR TO LIFR CIGS TO
DEVELOP. NOT A LOT OF CONFIDENCE IN HOW LONG THESE LOWER CATEGORIES
WILL PERSIST...THOUGH MODELS SUGGEST ONLY A BRIEF TIME. WITH THE
UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM MOVING THROUGH SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA THIS
AFTERNOON...CONFIDENCE IS BETTER THAN GUSTY WEST WINDS WILL DEVELOP
WITH SOME SHRA REDEVELOPMENT. CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE QUICKLY AFTER
SUNSET.


AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDED TAFS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...
STRONG HIGH PRESSURE AND MUCH DRIER CONDITIONS WILL MOVE BACK INTO
THE DISTRICT DURING THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK. TEMPERATURES WILL
REBOUND BACK INTO A NORMAL TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL RANGE...WHILE
AFTERNOON HUMIDITY LEVELS RETURN INTO A 15 TO 25 PERCENT RANGE.
OVERNIGHT RECOVERY WILL BE GOOD. PERIODS OF GUSTY NORTH WINDS DOWN
THE COLORADO RIVER VALLEY WILL BE LIKELY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...WHILE
OCCASIONAL PERIODS OF STRONGER EASTERLY WINDS OVER RIDGE TOPS OF
CENTRAL ARIZONA MAY BE COMMON LATE IN THE WEEK.

&&

.PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

AZ...FLOOD WATCH FROM 5 PM TODAY THROUGH 5 PM MONDAY AZZ020>021.
     FLOOD WATCH FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT THROUGH 8 PM MONDAY
     AZZ022>024.

CA...FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 12 PM MONDAY CAZ031>033.

&&

$$

VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/PHOENIX

DISCUSSION...PERCHA
AVIATION...MO
FIRE WEATHER...MO






000
FXUS65 KTWC 020957
AFDTWC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ
257 AM MST MON MAR 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...A STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM NEAR CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN
CALIFORNIA WILL BRING WINDY CONDITIONS AS WELL AS PERIODS OF VALLEY
RAIN AND MOUNTAIN SNOW BY MID DAY TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT.
PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL LESSEN CONSIDERABLY FOR MIDWEEK WITH DRY
CONDITIONS AREAWIDE AND WARMER TEMPERATURES BY THE END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS THE UPPER LOW EXPECTED TO
BRING WIDESPREAD VALLEY RAIN AND MOUNTAIN SNOW TO THE REGION IS
CURRENTLY SPINNING JUST OFFSHORE OF THE EXTREME SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA
COAST. PLENTY OF MOISTURE IS STREAMING TO THE NORTHEAST AHEAD OF
THIS SYSTEM ACROSS MUCH OF THE DESERT SOUTHWEST. SATELLITE DERIVED
BLENDED TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY SHOWS VALUES RANGING FROM
NEAR A HALF INCH ACROSS THE EXTREME EASTERN PARTS OF MY FORECAST
AREA NEAR THE NEW MEXICO BORDER...TO NEAR AN INCH AT YUMA. IN
ADDITION...PW`S OF NEAR 1.4 INCHES CAN BE SEEN OVER SOUTHERN SONORA
MEXICO. THE LATEST RADAR MOSAIC LOOP SHOWS NUMEROUS SHOWERS
SPREADING NORTHWARD...GENERALLY ALONG THE COLORADO RIVER BASIN AND
EXTENDING INTO SOUTHERN NEVADA. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS CAN BE
SEEN NORTH OF THE PHOENIX AREA FROM AROUND NEW RIVER TO FLAGSTAFF.
CLOSER TO HOME...MY FORECAST AREA REMAINS VOID OF PRECIPITATION
ECHOES AT THIS TIME.

MODELS INDICATE THAT THE LOW WILL LIFT TO THE EAST NORTHEAST TODAY
WITH THE BATCH OF SHOWERS CURRENTLY SEEN ACROSS WESTERN ARIZONA
SWEEPING THROUGH THE STATE THIS AFTERNOON AND THROUGHOUT THE
EVENING. INHERITED A COUPLE OF WINTER WEATHER HEADLINES...INCLUDING
A WINTER STORM WARNING FOR THE WHITE MOUNTAINS OF GRAHAM AND
GREENLEE COUNTIES AND THE PINALENO AND GALIURO MOUNTAINS OF
SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH CENTRAL GRAHAM COUNTY. IN ADDITION...A WINTER
WEATHER ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR THE SANTA CATALINA AND RINCON
MOUNTAINS OF EASTERN PIMA COUNTY ABOVE 6500 FEET. THESE WINTER
WEATHER PRODUCTS TAKE EFFECT AT 11 AM MST THIS MORNING THROUGH 1 AM
MST TUESDAY. SNOW TOTALS FOR THE WHITE MOUNTAINS...PINALENO AND
GALIURO`S RANGING FROM 10 TO 14 INCHES...WITH AMOUNTS FOR THE
CATALINAS AND RINCONS RANGING FROM 6 TO 8 INCHES. VALLEY RAINFALL
AMOUNTS EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM 0.25 TO 0.60 INCHES...WITH ISOLATED
AMOUNTS AROUND 0.75 INCHES...ESPECIALLY TO THE NORTH.

WIND WILL BE A CONCERN FOR TODAY WITH BREEZY TO WINDY CONDITIONS
AREA WIDE...WITH THE STRONGEST WINDS ACROSS MUCH OF SANTA CRUZ...
COCHISE AND SOUTHEAST PIMA COUNTY. FOR NOW IT LOOKS LIKE WINDS
SHOULD REMAIN JUST BELOW ADVISORY CONDITIONS FOR ELEVATIONS BELOW
5000 FEET. HOWEVER...FOR ELEVATIONS ABOVE 5000 FEET A WIND ADVISORY
WILL BE NEEDED SINCE SUSTAINED WINDS OF 30 TO 40 MPH WITH GUSTS TO
AROUND 50 TO 55 MPH WILL OCCUR OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN.

ONCE THIS SYSTEM MOVES TO THE EAST A SECONDARY SYSTEM MOVING ACROSS
ARIZONA AND NORTHERN MEXICO WILL KEEP A SMALL THREAT FOR SHOWERS IN
THE FORECAST FOR TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY BEFORE DRY WEATHER
RETURNS LATE IN THE WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND AS HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS ACROSS THE WEST COAST AND DRY NORTH TO NORTHWEST WINDS
PREVAIL ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST.

FOR TUCSON...HIGH TEMPERATURES GENERALLY 6 TO 10 DEGS BELOW NORMAL
TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY...BUT THE COOLEST DAYS WILL OCCUR TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY. NEAR NORMAL HIGHS FOR FRIDAY...THEN SEVERAL DEGREES ABOVE
NORMAL FOR THE WEEKEND. LOW TEMPS AROUND 3 TO 5 DEGS BELOW NORMAL
TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY MORNINGS...THEN NEAR NORMAL
FRIDAY...FOLLOWED BY LOWS 2 TO 4 DEGS ABOVE NORMAL FOR THE WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION...VALID THRU 03/12Z.
AN APPROACHING STORM SYSTEM WILL BE IMPACTING THE AREA THRU THIS
EVENING.  EXPECT SCT CUMULUS NEAR 4-6K FT AGL WITH BKN-OVC LAYERS
ABV THROUGH 25K FT...THEN AFT 02/18Z BECOMING BKN-OVC 4-6K FT WITH
MULTIPLE LAYERS ABV AND IFR/MVFR CONDS OVER MTNS AND NEAR SHOWERS.
ISOLD SHOWERS THIS MORNING WILL BECOME WIDESPREAD THIS AFTERNOON.
CLOUDS AND SHOWERS DIMINISHING FROM THE WEST BEHIND THE COLD FRONT
WHICH WILL BE NEAR KTUS 02/23Z AND KDUG NEAR 03/05Z.  SFC WINDS S
8-16 KTS THEN INCREASING TO 15-25 KTS WITH HIGHER GUSTS TO 40 KTS IN
ADVANCE OF APPROACHING COLD FRONT.  STRONG SOUTHERLY JET TODAY WITH
WINDS 30-50 KTS 5-10K FT MSL.  AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR
TAF AMENDMENTS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...A SLOWLY APPROACHING STORM SYSTEM GENERATE STRONG
WINDS TODAY INTO THE EARLY EVENING...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE
MOUNTAINS.  WINDS WILL EASE BEHIND THE COLD FRONT WHICH WILL BE NEAR
TUCSON AROUND 4 PM THIS AFTERNOON AND THEN MOVE INTO NEW MEXICO
AROUND 10 PM.  A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED THIS MORNING THEN
BECOMING WIDESPREAD THIS AFTERNOON.  THE SHOWERS WILL DIMINISH
BEHIND THE COLD FRONT.  THEN WITH AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IN THE AREA
EXPECT VARIABLE CLOUDS AND A CHANCE OF SHOWERS NOW AND AGAIN THROUGH
WEDNESDAY.  DRY AND WARMER THURSDAY ONWARD.

&&

.TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
     WINTER STORM WARNING 11 AM MST THIS MORNING TO 1 AM MST
     TUESDAY ABOVE 6500 FEET FOR AZZ510-511.

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY 11 AM MST THIS MORNING TO 1 AM MST
     TUESDAY ABOVE 6500 FEET FOR AZZ514.

     WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM MST THIS EVENING ABOVE 5000 FEET FOR
     AZZ512>515.

&&

$$

VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...YOUTUBE...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/TUCSON

PUBLIC...MOLLERE
AVIATION/FIRE WEATHER...CERNIGLIA






000
FXUS65 KTWC 020957
AFDTWC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ
257 AM MST MON MAR 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...A STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM NEAR CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN
CALIFORNIA WILL BRING WINDY CONDITIONS AS WELL AS PERIODS OF VALLEY
RAIN AND MOUNTAIN SNOW BY MID DAY TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT.
PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL LESSEN CONSIDERABLY FOR MIDWEEK WITH DRY
CONDITIONS AREAWIDE AND WARMER TEMPERATURES BY THE END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS THE UPPER LOW EXPECTED TO
BRING WIDESPREAD VALLEY RAIN AND MOUNTAIN SNOW TO THE REGION IS
CURRENTLY SPINNING JUST OFFSHORE OF THE EXTREME SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA
COAST. PLENTY OF MOISTURE IS STREAMING TO THE NORTHEAST AHEAD OF
THIS SYSTEM ACROSS MUCH OF THE DESERT SOUTHWEST. SATELLITE DERIVED
BLENDED TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY SHOWS VALUES RANGING FROM
NEAR A HALF INCH ACROSS THE EXTREME EASTERN PARTS OF MY FORECAST
AREA NEAR THE NEW MEXICO BORDER...TO NEAR AN INCH AT YUMA. IN
ADDITION...PW`S OF NEAR 1.4 INCHES CAN BE SEEN OVER SOUTHERN SONORA
MEXICO. THE LATEST RADAR MOSAIC LOOP SHOWS NUMEROUS SHOWERS
SPREADING NORTHWARD...GENERALLY ALONG THE COLORADO RIVER BASIN AND
EXTENDING INTO SOUTHERN NEVADA. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS CAN BE
SEEN NORTH OF THE PHOENIX AREA FROM AROUND NEW RIVER TO FLAGSTAFF.
CLOSER TO HOME...MY FORECAST AREA REMAINS VOID OF PRECIPITATION
ECHOES AT THIS TIME.

MODELS INDICATE THAT THE LOW WILL LIFT TO THE EAST NORTHEAST TODAY
WITH THE BATCH OF SHOWERS CURRENTLY SEEN ACROSS WESTERN ARIZONA
SWEEPING THROUGH THE STATE THIS AFTERNOON AND THROUGHOUT THE
EVENING. INHERITED A COUPLE OF WINTER WEATHER HEADLINES...INCLUDING
A WINTER STORM WARNING FOR THE WHITE MOUNTAINS OF GRAHAM AND
GREENLEE COUNTIES AND THE PINALENO AND GALIURO MOUNTAINS OF
SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH CENTRAL GRAHAM COUNTY. IN ADDITION...A WINTER
WEATHER ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR THE SANTA CATALINA AND RINCON
MOUNTAINS OF EASTERN PIMA COUNTY ABOVE 6500 FEET. THESE WINTER
WEATHER PRODUCTS TAKE EFFECT AT 11 AM MST THIS MORNING THROUGH 1 AM
MST TUESDAY. SNOW TOTALS FOR THE WHITE MOUNTAINS...PINALENO AND
GALIURO`S RANGING FROM 10 TO 14 INCHES...WITH AMOUNTS FOR THE
CATALINAS AND RINCONS RANGING FROM 6 TO 8 INCHES. VALLEY RAINFALL
AMOUNTS EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM 0.25 TO 0.60 INCHES...WITH ISOLATED
AMOUNTS AROUND 0.75 INCHES...ESPECIALLY TO THE NORTH.

WIND WILL BE A CONCERN FOR TODAY WITH BREEZY TO WINDY CONDITIONS
AREA WIDE...WITH THE STRONGEST WINDS ACROSS MUCH OF SANTA CRUZ...
COCHISE AND SOUTHEAST PIMA COUNTY. FOR NOW IT LOOKS LIKE WINDS
SHOULD REMAIN JUST BELOW ADVISORY CONDITIONS FOR ELEVATIONS BELOW
5000 FEET. HOWEVER...FOR ELEVATIONS ABOVE 5000 FEET A WIND ADVISORY
WILL BE NEEDED SINCE SUSTAINED WINDS OF 30 TO 40 MPH WITH GUSTS TO
AROUND 50 TO 55 MPH WILL OCCUR OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN.

ONCE THIS SYSTEM MOVES TO THE EAST A SECONDARY SYSTEM MOVING ACROSS
ARIZONA AND NORTHERN MEXICO WILL KEEP A SMALL THREAT FOR SHOWERS IN
THE FORECAST FOR TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY BEFORE DRY WEATHER
RETURNS LATE IN THE WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND AS HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS ACROSS THE WEST COAST AND DRY NORTH TO NORTHWEST WINDS
PREVAIL ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST.

FOR TUCSON...HIGH TEMPERATURES GENERALLY 6 TO 10 DEGS BELOW NORMAL
TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY...BUT THE COOLEST DAYS WILL OCCUR TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY. NEAR NORMAL HIGHS FOR FRIDAY...THEN SEVERAL DEGREES ABOVE
NORMAL FOR THE WEEKEND. LOW TEMPS AROUND 3 TO 5 DEGS BELOW NORMAL
TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY MORNINGS...THEN NEAR NORMAL
FRIDAY...FOLLOWED BY LOWS 2 TO 4 DEGS ABOVE NORMAL FOR THE WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION...VALID THRU 03/12Z.
AN APPROACHING STORM SYSTEM WILL BE IMPACTING THE AREA THRU THIS
EVENING.  EXPECT SCT CUMULUS NEAR 4-6K FT AGL WITH BKN-OVC LAYERS
ABV THROUGH 25K FT...THEN AFT 02/18Z BECOMING BKN-OVC 4-6K FT WITH
MULTIPLE LAYERS ABV AND IFR/MVFR CONDS OVER MTNS AND NEAR SHOWERS.
ISOLD SHOWERS THIS MORNING WILL BECOME WIDESPREAD THIS AFTERNOON.
CLOUDS AND SHOWERS DIMINISHING FROM THE WEST BEHIND THE COLD FRONT
WHICH WILL BE NEAR KTUS 02/23Z AND KDUG NEAR 03/05Z.  SFC WINDS S
8-16 KTS THEN INCREASING TO 15-25 KTS WITH HIGHER GUSTS TO 40 KTS IN
ADVANCE OF APPROACHING COLD FRONT.  STRONG SOUTHERLY JET TODAY WITH
WINDS 30-50 KTS 5-10K FT MSL.  AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR
TAF AMENDMENTS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...A SLOWLY APPROACHING STORM SYSTEM GENERATE STRONG
WINDS TODAY INTO THE EARLY EVENING...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE
MOUNTAINS.  WINDS WILL EASE BEHIND THE COLD FRONT WHICH WILL BE NEAR
TUCSON AROUND 4 PM THIS AFTERNOON AND THEN MOVE INTO NEW MEXICO
AROUND 10 PM.  A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED THIS MORNING THEN
BECOMING WIDESPREAD THIS AFTERNOON.  THE SHOWERS WILL DIMINISH
BEHIND THE COLD FRONT.  THEN WITH AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IN THE AREA
EXPECT VARIABLE CLOUDS AND A CHANCE OF SHOWERS NOW AND AGAIN THROUGH
WEDNESDAY.  DRY AND WARMER THURSDAY ONWARD.

&&

.TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
     WINTER STORM WARNING 11 AM MST THIS MORNING TO 1 AM MST
     TUESDAY ABOVE 6500 FEET FOR AZZ510-511.

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY 11 AM MST THIS MORNING TO 1 AM MST
     TUESDAY ABOVE 6500 FEET FOR AZZ514.

     WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM MST THIS EVENING ABOVE 5000 FEET FOR
     AZZ512>515.

&&

$$

VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...YOUTUBE...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/TUCSON

PUBLIC...MOLLERE
AVIATION/FIRE WEATHER...CERNIGLIA






000
FXUS65 KTWC 020957
AFDTWC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ
257 AM MST MON MAR 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...A STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM NEAR CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN
CALIFORNIA WILL BRING WINDY CONDITIONS AS WELL AS PERIODS OF VALLEY
RAIN AND MOUNTAIN SNOW BY MID DAY TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT.
PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL LESSEN CONSIDERABLY FOR MIDWEEK WITH DRY
CONDITIONS AREAWIDE AND WARMER TEMPERATURES BY THE END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS THE UPPER LOW EXPECTED TO
BRING WIDESPREAD VALLEY RAIN AND MOUNTAIN SNOW TO THE REGION IS
CURRENTLY SPINNING JUST OFFSHORE OF THE EXTREME SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA
COAST. PLENTY OF MOISTURE IS STREAMING TO THE NORTHEAST AHEAD OF
THIS SYSTEM ACROSS MUCH OF THE DESERT SOUTHWEST. SATELLITE DERIVED
BLENDED TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY SHOWS VALUES RANGING FROM
NEAR A HALF INCH ACROSS THE EXTREME EASTERN PARTS OF MY FORECAST
AREA NEAR THE NEW MEXICO BORDER...TO NEAR AN INCH AT YUMA. IN
ADDITION...PW`S OF NEAR 1.4 INCHES CAN BE SEEN OVER SOUTHERN SONORA
MEXICO. THE LATEST RADAR MOSAIC LOOP SHOWS NUMEROUS SHOWERS
SPREADING NORTHWARD...GENERALLY ALONG THE COLORADO RIVER BASIN AND
EXTENDING INTO SOUTHERN NEVADA. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS CAN BE
SEEN NORTH OF THE PHOENIX AREA FROM AROUND NEW RIVER TO FLAGSTAFF.
CLOSER TO HOME...MY FORECAST AREA REMAINS VOID OF PRECIPITATION
ECHOES AT THIS TIME.

MODELS INDICATE THAT THE LOW WILL LIFT TO THE EAST NORTHEAST TODAY
WITH THE BATCH OF SHOWERS CURRENTLY SEEN ACROSS WESTERN ARIZONA
SWEEPING THROUGH THE STATE THIS AFTERNOON AND THROUGHOUT THE
EVENING. INHERITED A COUPLE OF WINTER WEATHER HEADLINES...INCLUDING
A WINTER STORM WARNING FOR THE WHITE MOUNTAINS OF GRAHAM AND
GREENLEE COUNTIES AND THE PINALENO AND GALIURO MOUNTAINS OF
SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH CENTRAL GRAHAM COUNTY. IN ADDITION...A WINTER
WEATHER ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR THE SANTA CATALINA AND RINCON
MOUNTAINS OF EASTERN PIMA COUNTY ABOVE 6500 FEET. THESE WINTER
WEATHER PRODUCTS TAKE EFFECT AT 11 AM MST THIS MORNING THROUGH 1 AM
MST TUESDAY. SNOW TOTALS FOR THE WHITE MOUNTAINS...PINALENO AND
GALIURO`S RANGING FROM 10 TO 14 INCHES...WITH AMOUNTS FOR THE
CATALINAS AND RINCONS RANGING FROM 6 TO 8 INCHES. VALLEY RAINFALL
AMOUNTS EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM 0.25 TO 0.60 INCHES...WITH ISOLATED
AMOUNTS AROUND 0.75 INCHES...ESPECIALLY TO THE NORTH.

WIND WILL BE A CONCERN FOR TODAY WITH BREEZY TO WINDY CONDITIONS
AREA WIDE...WITH THE STRONGEST WINDS ACROSS MUCH OF SANTA CRUZ...
COCHISE AND SOUTHEAST PIMA COUNTY. FOR NOW IT LOOKS LIKE WINDS
SHOULD REMAIN JUST BELOW ADVISORY CONDITIONS FOR ELEVATIONS BELOW
5000 FEET. HOWEVER...FOR ELEVATIONS ABOVE 5000 FEET A WIND ADVISORY
WILL BE NEEDED SINCE SUSTAINED WINDS OF 30 TO 40 MPH WITH GUSTS TO
AROUND 50 TO 55 MPH WILL OCCUR OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN.

ONCE THIS SYSTEM MOVES TO THE EAST A SECONDARY SYSTEM MOVING ACROSS
ARIZONA AND NORTHERN MEXICO WILL KEEP A SMALL THREAT FOR SHOWERS IN
THE FORECAST FOR TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY BEFORE DRY WEATHER
RETURNS LATE IN THE WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND AS HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS ACROSS THE WEST COAST AND DRY NORTH TO NORTHWEST WINDS
PREVAIL ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST.

FOR TUCSON...HIGH TEMPERATURES GENERALLY 6 TO 10 DEGS BELOW NORMAL
TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY...BUT THE COOLEST DAYS WILL OCCUR TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY. NEAR NORMAL HIGHS FOR FRIDAY...THEN SEVERAL DEGREES ABOVE
NORMAL FOR THE WEEKEND. LOW TEMPS AROUND 3 TO 5 DEGS BELOW NORMAL
TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY MORNINGS...THEN NEAR NORMAL
FRIDAY...FOLLOWED BY LOWS 2 TO 4 DEGS ABOVE NORMAL FOR THE WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION...VALID THRU 03/12Z.
AN APPROACHING STORM SYSTEM WILL BE IMPACTING THE AREA THRU THIS
EVENING.  EXPECT SCT CUMULUS NEAR 4-6K FT AGL WITH BKN-OVC LAYERS
ABV THROUGH 25K FT...THEN AFT 02/18Z BECOMING BKN-OVC 4-6K FT WITH
MULTIPLE LAYERS ABV AND IFR/MVFR CONDS OVER MTNS AND NEAR SHOWERS.
ISOLD SHOWERS THIS MORNING WILL BECOME WIDESPREAD THIS AFTERNOON.
CLOUDS AND SHOWERS DIMINISHING FROM THE WEST BEHIND THE COLD FRONT
WHICH WILL BE NEAR KTUS 02/23Z AND KDUG NEAR 03/05Z.  SFC WINDS S
8-16 KTS THEN INCREASING TO 15-25 KTS WITH HIGHER GUSTS TO 40 KTS IN
ADVANCE OF APPROACHING COLD FRONT.  STRONG SOUTHERLY JET TODAY WITH
WINDS 30-50 KTS 5-10K FT MSL.  AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR
TAF AMENDMENTS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...A SLOWLY APPROACHING STORM SYSTEM GENERATE STRONG
WINDS TODAY INTO THE EARLY EVENING...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE
MOUNTAINS.  WINDS WILL EASE BEHIND THE COLD FRONT WHICH WILL BE NEAR
TUCSON AROUND 4 PM THIS AFTERNOON AND THEN MOVE INTO NEW MEXICO
AROUND 10 PM.  A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED THIS MORNING THEN
BECOMING WIDESPREAD THIS AFTERNOON.  THE SHOWERS WILL DIMINISH
BEHIND THE COLD FRONT.  THEN WITH AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IN THE AREA
EXPECT VARIABLE CLOUDS AND A CHANCE OF SHOWERS NOW AND AGAIN THROUGH
WEDNESDAY.  DRY AND WARMER THURSDAY ONWARD.

&&

.TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
     WINTER STORM WARNING 11 AM MST THIS MORNING TO 1 AM MST
     TUESDAY ABOVE 6500 FEET FOR AZZ510-511.

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY 11 AM MST THIS MORNING TO 1 AM MST
     TUESDAY ABOVE 6500 FEET FOR AZZ514.

     WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM MST THIS EVENING ABOVE 5000 FEET FOR
     AZZ512>515.

&&

$$

VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...YOUTUBE...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/TUCSON

PUBLIC...MOLLERE
AVIATION/FIRE WEATHER...CERNIGLIA






000
FXUS65 KTWC 020957
AFDTWC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ
257 AM MST MON MAR 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...A STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM NEAR CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN
CALIFORNIA WILL BRING WINDY CONDITIONS AS WELL AS PERIODS OF VALLEY
RAIN AND MOUNTAIN SNOW BY MID DAY TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT.
PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL LESSEN CONSIDERABLY FOR MIDWEEK WITH DRY
CONDITIONS AREAWIDE AND WARMER TEMPERATURES BY THE END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS THE UPPER LOW EXPECTED TO
BRING WIDESPREAD VALLEY RAIN AND MOUNTAIN SNOW TO THE REGION IS
CURRENTLY SPINNING JUST OFFSHORE OF THE EXTREME SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA
COAST. PLENTY OF MOISTURE IS STREAMING TO THE NORTHEAST AHEAD OF
THIS SYSTEM ACROSS MUCH OF THE DESERT SOUTHWEST. SATELLITE DERIVED
BLENDED TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY SHOWS VALUES RANGING FROM
NEAR A HALF INCH ACROSS THE EXTREME EASTERN PARTS OF MY FORECAST
AREA NEAR THE NEW MEXICO BORDER...TO NEAR AN INCH AT YUMA. IN
ADDITION...PW`S OF NEAR 1.4 INCHES CAN BE SEEN OVER SOUTHERN SONORA
MEXICO. THE LATEST RADAR MOSAIC LOOP SHOWS NUMEROUS SHOWERS
SPREADING NORTHWARD...GENERALLY ALONG THE COLORADO RIVER BASIN AND
EXTENDING INTO SOUTHERN NEVADA. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS CAN BE
SEEN NORTH OF THE PHOENIX AREA FROM AROUND NEW RIVER TO FLAGSTAFF.
CLOSER TO HOME...MY FORECAST AREA REMAINS VOID OF PRECIPITATION
ECHOES AT THIS TIME.

MODELS INDICATE THAT THE LOW WILL LIFT TO THE EAST NORTHEAST TODAY
WITH THE BATCH OF SHOWERS CURRENTLY SEEN ACROSS WESTERN ARIZONA
SWEEPING THROUGH THE STATE THIS AFTERNOON AND THROUGHOUT THE
EVENING. INHERITED A COUPLE OF WINTER WEATHER HEADLINES...INCLUDING
A WINTER STORM WARNING FOR THE WHITE MOUNTAINS OF GRAHAM AND
GREENLEE COUNTIES AND THE PINALENO AND GALIURO MOUNTAINS OF
SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH CENTRAL GRAHAM COUNTY. IN ADDITION...A WINTER
WEATHER ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR THE SANTA CATALINA AND RINCON
MOUNTAINS OF EASTERN PIMA COUNTY ABOVE 6500 FEET. THESE WINTER
WEATHER PRODUCTS TAKE EFFECT AT 11 AM MST THIS MORNING THROUGH 1 AM
MST TUESDAY. SNOW TOTALS FOR THE WHITE MOUNTAINS...PINALENO AND
GALIURO`S RANGING FROM 10 TO 14 INCHES...WITH AMOUNTS FOR THE
CATALINAS AND RINCONS RANGING FROM 6 TO 8 INCHES. VALLEY RAINFALL
AMOUNTS EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM 0.25 TO 0.60 INCHES...WITH ISOLATED
AMOUNTS AROUND 0.75 INCHES...ESPECIALLY TO THE NORTH.

WIND WILL BE A CONCERN FOR TODAY WITH BREEZY TO WINDY CONDITIONS
AREA WIDE...WITH THE STRONGEST WINDS ACROSS MUCH OF SANTA CRUZ...
COCHISE AND SOUTHEAST PIMA COUNTY. FOR NOW IT LOOKS LIKE WINDS
SHOULD REMAIN JUST BELOW ADVISORY CONDITIONS FOR ELEVATIONS BELOW
5000 FEET. HOWEVER...FOR ELEVATIONS ABOVE 5000 FEET A WIND ADVISORY
WILL BE NEEDED SINCE SUSTAINED WINDS OF 30 TO 40 MPH WITH GUSTS TO
AROUND 50 TO 55 MPH WILL OCCUR OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN.

ONCE THIS SYSTEM MOVES TO THE EAST A SECONDARY SYSTEM MOVING ACROSS
ARIZONA AND NORTHERN MEXICO WILL KEEP A SMALL THREAT FOR SHOWERS IN
THE FORECAST FOR TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY BEFORE DRY WEATHER
RETURNS LATE IN THE WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND AS HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS ACROSS THE WEST COAST AND DRY NORTH TO NORTHWEST WINDS
PREVAIL ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST.

FOR TUCSON...HIGH TEMPERATURES GENERALLY 6 TO 10 DEGS BELOW NORMAL
TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY...BUT THE COOLEST DAYS WILL OCCUR TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY. NEAR NORMAL HIGHS FOR FRIDAY...THEN SEVERAL DEGREES ABOVE
NORMAL FOR THE WEEKEND. LOW TEMPS AROUND 3 TO 5 DEGS BELOW NORMAL
TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY MORNINGS...THEN NEAR NORMAL
FRIDAY...FOLLOWED BY LOWS 2 TO 4 DEGS ABOVE NORMAL FOR THE WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION...VALID THRU 03/12Z.
AN APPROACHING STORM SYSTEM WILL BE IMPACTING THE AREA THRU THIS
EVENING.  EXPECT SCT CUMULUS NEAR 4-6K FT AGL WITH BKN-OVC LAYERS
ABV THROUGH 25K FT...THEN AFT 02/18Z BECOMING BKN-OVC 4-6K FT WITH
MULTIPLE LAYERS ABV AND IFR/MVFR CONDS OVER MTNS AND NEAR SHOWERS.
ISOLD SHOWERS THIS MORNING WILL BECOME WIDESPREAD THIS AFTERNOON.
CLOUDS AND SHOWERS DIMINISHING FROM THE WEST BEHIND THE COLD FRONT
WHICH WILL BE NEAR KTUS 02/23Z AND KDUG NEAR 03/05Z.  SFC WINDS S
8-16 KTS THEN INCREASING TO 15-25 KTS WITH HIGHER GUSTS TO 40 KTS IN
ADVANCE OF APPROACHING COLD FRONT.  STRONG SOUTHERLY JET TODAY WITH
WINDS 30-50 KTS 5-10K FT MSL.  AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR
TAF AMENDMENTS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...A SLOWLY APPROACHING STORM SYSTEM GENERATE STRONG
WINDS TODAY INTO THE EARLY EVENING...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE
MOUNTAINS.  WINDS WILL EASE BEHIND THE COLD FRONT WHICH WILL BE NEAR
TUCSON AROUND 4 PM THIS AFTERNOON AND THEN MOVE INTO NEW MEXICO
AROUND 10 PM.  A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED THIS MORNING THEN
BECOMING WIDESPREAD THIS AFTERNOON.  THE SHOWERS WILL DIMINISH
BEHIND THE COLD FRONT.  THEN WITH AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IN THE AREA
EXPECT VARIABLE CLOUDS AND A CHANCE OF SHOWERS NOW AND AGAIN THROUGH
WEDNESDAY.  DRY AND WARMER THURSDAY ONWARD.

&&

.TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
     WINTER STORM WARNING 11 AM MST THIS MORNING TO 1 AM MST
     TUESDAY ABOVE 6500 FEET FOR AZZ510-511.

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY 11 AM MST THIS MORNING TO 1 AM MST
     TUESDAY ABOVE 6500 FEET FOR AZZ514.

     WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM MST THIS EVENING ABOVE 5000 FEET FOR
     AZZ512>515.

&&

$$

VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...YOUTUBE...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/TUCSON

PUBLIC...MOLLERE
AVIATION/FIRE WEATHER...CERNIGLIA






000
FXUS65 KTWC 020957
AFDTWC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ
257 AM MST MON MAR 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...A STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM NEAR CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN
CALIFORNIA WILL BRING WINDY CONDITIONS AS WELL AS PERIODS OF VALLEY
RAIN AND MOUNTAIN SNOW BY MID DAY TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT.
PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL LESSEN CONSIDERABLY FOR MIDWEEK WITH DRY
CONDITIONS AREAWIDE AND WARMER TEMPERATURES BY THE END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS THE UPPER LOW EXPECTED TO
BRING WIDESPREAD VALLEY RAIN AND MOUNTAIN SNOW TO THE REGION IS
CURRENTLY SPINNING JUST OFFSHORE OF THE EXTREME SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA
COAST. PLENTY OF MOISTURE IS STREAMING TO THE NORTHEAST AHEAD OF
THIS SYSTEM ACROSS MUCH OF THE DESERT SOUTHWEST. SATELLITE DERIVED
BLENDED TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY SHOWS VALUES RANGING FROM
NEAR A HALF INCH ACROSS THE EXTREME EASTERN PARTS OF MY FORECAST
AREA NEAR THE NEW MEXICO BORDER...TO NEAR AN INCH AT YUMA. IN
ADDITION...PW`S OF NEAR 1.4 INCHES CAN BE SEEN OVER SOUTHERN SONORA
MEXICO. THE LATEST RADAR MOSAIC LOOP SHOWS NUMEROUS SHOWERS
SPREADING NORTHWARD...GENERALLY ALONG THE COLORADO RIVER BASIN AND
EXTENDING INTO SOUTHERN NEVADA. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS CAN BE
SEEN NORTH OF THE PHOENIX AREA FROM AROUND NEW RIVER TO FLAGSTAFF.
CLOSER TO HOME...MY FORECAST AREA REMAINS VOID OF PRECIPITATION
ECHOES AT THIS TIME.

MODELS INDICATE THAT THE LOW WILL LIFT TO THE EAST NORTHEAST TODAY
WITH THE BATCH OF SHOWERS CURRENTLY SEEN ACROSS WESTERN ARIZONA
SWEEPING THROUGH THE STATE THIS AFTERNOON AND THROUGHOUT THE
EVENING. INHERITED A COUPLE OF WINTER WEATHER HEADLINES...INCLUDING
A WINTER STORM WARNING FOR THE WHITE MOUNTAINS OF GRAHAM AND
GREENLEE COUNTIES AND THE PINALENO AND GALIURO MOUNTAINS OF
SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH CENTRAL GRAHAM COUNTY. IN ADDITION...A WINTER
WEATHER ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR THE SANTA CATALINA AND RINCON
MOUNTAINS OF EASTERN PIMA COUNTY ABOVE 6500 FEET. THESE WINTER
WEATHER PRODUCTS TAKE EFFECT AT 11 AM MST THIS MORNING THROUGH 1 AM
MST TUESDAY. SNOW TOTALS FOR THE WHITE MOUNTAINS...PINALENO AND
GALIURO`S RANGING FROM 10 TO 14 INCHES...WITH AMOUNTS FOR THE
CATALINAS AND RINCONS RANGING FROM 6 TO 8 INCHES. VALLEY RAINFALL
AMOUNTS EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM 0.25 TO 0.60 INCHES...WITH ISOLATED
AMOUNTS AROUND 0.75 INCHES...ESPECIALLY TO THE NORTH.

WIND WILL BE A CONCERN FOR TODAY WITH BREEZY TO WINDY CONDITIONS
AREA WIDE...WITH THE STRONGEST WINDS ACROSS MUCH OF SANTA CRUZ...
COCHISE AND SOUTHEAST PIMA COUNTY. FOR NOW IT LOOKS LIKE WINDS
SHOULD REMAIN JUST BELOW ADVISORY CONDITIONS FOR ELEVATIONS BELOW
5000 FEET. HOWEVER...FOR ELEVATIONS ABOVE 5000 FEET A WIND ADVISORY
WILL BE NEEDED SINCE SUSTAINED WINDS OF 30 TO 40 MPH WITH GUSTS TO
AROUND 50 TO 55 MPH WILL OCCUR OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN.

ONCE THIS SYSTEM MOVES TO THE EAST A SECONDARY SYSTEM MOVING ACROSS
ARIZONA AND NORTHERN MEXICO WILL KEEP A SMALL THREAT FOR SHOWERS IN
THE FORECAST FOR TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY BEFORE DRY WEATHER
RETURNS LATE IN THE WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND AS HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS ACROSS THE WEST COAST AND DRY NORTH TO NORTHWEST WINDS
PREVAIL ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST.

FOR TUCSON...HIGH TEMPERATURES GENERALLY 6 TO 10 DEGS BELOW NORMAL
TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY...BUT THE COOLEST DAYS WILL OCCUR TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY. NEAR NORMAL HIGHS FOR FRIDAY...THEN SEVERAL DEGREES ABOVE
NORMAL FOR THE WEEKEND. LOW TEMPS AROUND 3 TO 5 DEGS BELOW NORMAL
TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY MORNINGS...THEN NEAR NORMAL
FRIDAY...FOLLOWED BY LOWS 2 TO 4 DEGS ABOVE NORMAL FOR THE WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION...VALID THRU 03/12Z.
AN APPROACHING STORM SYSTEM WILL BE IMPACTING THE AREA THRU THIS
EVENING.  EXPECT SCT CUMULUS NEAR 4-6K FT AGL WITH BKN-OVC LAYERS
ABV THROUGH 25K FT...THEN AFT 02/18Z BECOMING BKN-OVC 4-6K FT WITH
MULTIPLE LAYERS ABV AND IFR/MVFR CONDS OVER MTNS AND NEAR SHOWERS.
ISOLD SHOWERS THIS MORNING WILL BECOME WIDESPREAD THIS AFTERNOON.
CLOUDS AND SHOWERS DIMINISHING FROM THE WEST BEHIND THE COLD FRONT
WHICH WILL BE NEAR KTUS 02/23Z AND KDUG NEAR 03/05Z.  SFC WINDS S
8-16 KTS THEN INCREASING TO 15-25 KTS WITH HIGHER GUSTS TO 40 KTS IN
ADVANCE OF APPROACHING COLD FRONT.  STRONG SOUTHERLY JET TODAY WITH
WINDS 30-50 KTS 5-10K FT MSL.  AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR
TAF AMENDMENTS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...A SLOWLY APPROACHING STORM SYSTEM GENERATE STRONG
WINDS TODAY INTO THE EARLY EVENING...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE
MOUNTAINS.  WINDS WILL EASE BEHIND THE COLD FRONT WHICH WILL BE NEAR
TUCSON AROUND 4 PM THIS AFTERNOON AND THEN MOVE INTO NEW MEXICO
AROUND 10 PM.  A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED THIS MORNING THEN
BECOMING WIDESPREAD THIS AFTERNOON.  THE SHOWERS WILL DIMINISH
BEHIND THE COLD FRONT.  THEN WITH AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IN THE AREA
EXPECT VARIABLE CLOUDS AND A CHANCE OF SHOWERS NOW AND AGAIN THROUGH
WEDNESDAY.  DRY AND WARMER THURSDAY ONWARD.

&&

.TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
     WINTER STORM WARNING 11 AM MST THIS MORNING TO 1 AM MST
     TUESDAY ABOVE 6500 FEET FOR AZZ510-511.

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY 11 AM MST THIS MORNING TO 1 AM MST
     TUESDAY ABOVE 6500 FEET FOR AZZ514.

     WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM MST THIS EVENING ABOVE 5000 FEET FOR
     AZZ512>515.

&&

$$

VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...YOUTUBE...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/TUCSON

PUBLIC...MOLLERE
AVIATION/FIRE WEATHER...CERNIGLIA






000
FXUS65 KTWC 020957
AFDTWC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ
257 AM MST MON MAR 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...A STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM NEAR CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN
CALIFORNIA WILL BRING WINDY CONDITIONS AS WELL AS PERIODS OF VALLEY
RAIN AND MOUNTAIN SNOW BY MID DAY TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT.
PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL LESSEN CONSIDERABLY FOR MIDWEEK WITH DRY
CONDITIONS AREAWIDE AND WARMER TEMPERATURES BY THE END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS THE UPPER LOW EXPECTED TO
BRING WIDESPREAD VALLEY RAIN AND MOUNTAIN SNOW TO THE REGION IS
CURRENTLY SPINNING JUST OFFSHORE OF THE EXTREME SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA
COAST. PLENTY OF MOISTURE IS STREAMING TO THE NORTHEAST AHEAD OF
THIS SYSTEM ACROSS MUCH OF THE DESERT SOUTHWEST. SATELLITE DERIVED
BLENDED TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY SHOWS VALUES RANGING FROM
NEAR A HALF INCH ACROSS THE EXTREME EASTERN PARTS OF MY FORECAST
AREA NEAR THE NEW MEXICO BORDER...TO NEAR AN INCH AT YUMA. IN
ADDITION...PW`S OF NEAR 1.4 INCHES CAN BE SEEN OVER SOUTHERN SONORA
MEXICO. THE LATEST RADAR MOSAIC LOOP SHOWS NUMEROUS SHOWERS
SPREADING NORTHWARD...GENERALLY ALONG THE COLORADO RIVER BASIN AND
EXTENDING INTO SOUTHERN NEVADA. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS CAN BE
SEEN NORTH OF THE PHOENIX AREA FROM AROUND NEW RIVER TO FLAGSTAFF.
CLOSER TO HOME...MY FORECAST AREA REMAINS VOID OF PRECIPITATION
ECHOES AT THIS TIME.

MODELS INDICATE THAT THE LOW WILL LIFT TO THE EAST NORTHEAST TODAY
WITH THE BATCH OF SHOWERS CURRENTLY SEEN ACROSS WESTERN ARIZONA
SWEEPING THROUGH THE STATE THIS AFTERNOON AND THROUGHOUT THE
EVENING. INHERITED A COUPLE OF WINTER WEATHER HEADLINES...INCLUDING
A WINTER STORM WARNING FOR THE WHITE MOUNTAINS OF GRAHAM AND
GREENLEE COUNTIES AND THE PINALENO AND GALIURO MOUNTAINS OF
SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH CENTRAL GRAHAM COUNTY. IN ADDITION...A WINTER
WEATHER ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR THE SANTA CATALINA AND RINCON
MOUNTAINS OF EASTERN PIMA COUNTY ABOVE 6500 FEET. THESE WINTER
WEATHER PRODUCTS TAKE EFFECT AT 11 AM MST THIS MORNING THROUGH 1 AM
MST TUESDAY. SNOW TOTALS FOR THE WHITE MOUNTAINS...PINALENO AND
GALIURO`S RANGING FROM 10 TO 14 INCHES...WITH AMOUNTS FOR THE
CATALINAS AND RINCONS RANGING FROM 6 TO 8 INCHES. VALLEY RAINFALL
AMOUNTS EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM 0.25 TO 0.60 INCHES...WITH ISOLATED
AMOUNTS AROUND 0.75 INCHES...ESPECIALLY TO THE NORTH.

WIND WILL BE A CONCERN FOR TODAY WITH BREEZY TO WINDY CONDITIONS
AREA WIDE...WITH THE STRONGEST WINDS ACROSS MUCH OF SANTA CRUZ...
COCHISE AND SOUTHEAST PIMA COUNTY. FOR NOW IT LOOKS LIKE WINDS
SHOULD REMAIN JUST BELOW ADVISORY CONDITIONS FOR ELEVATIONS BELOW
5000 FEET. HOWEVER...FOR ELEVATIONS ABOVE 5000 FEET A WIND ADVISORY
WILL BE NEEDED SINCE SUSTAINED WINDS OF 30 TO 40 MPH WITH GUSTS TO
AROUND 50 TO 55 MPH WILL OCCUR OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN.

ONCE THIS SYSTEM MOVES TO THE EAST A SECONDARY SYSTEM MOVING ACROSS
ARIZONA AND NORTHERN MEXICO WILL KEEP A SMALL THREAT FOR SHOWERS IN
THE FORECAST FOR TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY BEFORE DRY WEATHER
RETURNS LATE IN THE WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND AS HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS ACROSS THE WEST COAST AND DRY NORTH TO NORTHWEST WINDS
PREVAIL ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST.

FOR TUCSON...HIGH TEMPERATURES GENERALLY 6 TO 10 DEGS BELOW NORMAL
TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY...BUT THE COOLEST DAYS WILL OCCUR TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY. NEAR NORMAL HIGHS FOR FRIDAY...THEN SEVERAL DEGREES ABOVE
NORMAL FOR THE WEEKEND. LOW TEMPS AROUND 3 TO 5 DEGS BELOW NORMAL
TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY MORNINGS...THEN NEAR NORMAL
FRIDAY...FOLLOWED BY LOWS 2 TO 4 DEGS ABOVE NORMAL FOR THE WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION...VALID THRU 03/12Z.
AN APPROACHING STORM SYSTEM WILL BE IMPACTING THE AREA THRU THIS
EVENING.  EXPECT SCT CUMULUS NEAR 4-6K FT AGL WITH BKN-OVC LAYERS
ABV THROUGH 25K FT...THEN AFT 02/18Z BECOMING BKN-OVC 4-6K FT WITH
MULTIPLE LAYERS ABV AND IFR/MVFR CONDS OVER MTNS AND NEAR SHOWERS.
ISOLD SHOWERS THIS MORNING WILL BECOME WIDESPREAD THIS AFTERNOON.
CLOUDS AND SHOWERS DIMINISHING FROM THE WEST BEHIND THE COLD FRONT
WHICH WILL BE NEAR KTUS 02/23Z AND KDUG NEAR 03/05Z.  SFC WINDS S
8-16 KTS THEN INCREASING TO 15-25 KTS WITH HIGHER GUSTS TO 40 KTS IN
ADVANCE OF APPROACHING COLD FRONT.  STRONG SOUTHERLY JET TODAY WITH
WINDS 30-50 KTS 5-10K FT MSL.  AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR
TAF AMENDMENTS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...A SLOWLY APPROACHING STORM SYSTEM GENERATE STRONG
WINDS TODAY INTO THE EARLY EVENING...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE
MOUNTAINS.  WINDS WILL EASE BEHIND THE COLD FRONT WHICH WILL BE NEAR
TUCSON AROUND 4 PM THIS AFTERNOON AND THEN MOVE INTO NEW MEXICO
AROUND 10 PM.  A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED THIS MORNING THEN
BECOMING WIDESPREAD THIS AFTERNOON.  THE SHOWERS WILL DIMINISH
BEHIND THE COLD FRONT.  THEN WITH AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IN THE AREA
EXPECT VARIABLE CLOUDS AND A CHANCE OF SHOWERS NOW AND AGAIN THROUGH
WEDNESDAY.  DRY AND WARMER THURSDAY ONWARD.

&&

.TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
     WINTER STORM WARNING 11 AM MST THIS MORNING TO 1 AM MST
     TUESDAY ABOVE 6500 FEET FOR AZZ510-511.

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY 11 AM MST THIS MORNING TO 1 AM MST
     TUESDAY ABOVE 6500 FEET FOR AZZ514.

     WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM MST THIS EVENING ABOVE 5000 FEET FOR
     AZZ512>515.

&&

$$

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PUBLIC...MOLLERE
AVIATION/FIRE WEATHER...CERNIGLIA






000
FXUS65 KTWC 020957
AFDTWC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ
257 AM MST MON MAR 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...A STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM NEAR CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN
CALIFORNIA WILL BRING WINDY CONDITIONS AS WELL AS PERIODS OF VALLEY
RAIN AND MOUNTAIN SNOW BY MID DAY TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT.
PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL LESSEN CONSIDERABLY FOR MIDWEEK WITH DRY
CONDITIONS AREAWIDE AND WARMER TEMPERATURES BY THE END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS THE UPPER LOW EXPECTED TO
BRING WIDESPREAD VALLEY RAIN AND MOUNTAIN SNOW TO THE REGION IS
CURRENTLY SPINNING JUST OFFSHORE OF THE EXTREME SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA
COAST. PLENTY OF MOISTURE IS STREAMING TO THE NORTHEAST AHEAD OF
THIS SYSTEM ACROSS MUCH OF THE DESERT SOUTHWEST. SATELLITE DERIVED
BLENDED TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY SHOWS VALUES RANGING FROM
NEAR A HALF INCH ACROSS THE EXTREME EASTERN PARTS OF MY FORECAST
AREA NEAR THE NEW MEXICO BORDER...TO NEAR AN INCH AT YUMA. IN
ADDITION...PW`S OF NEAR 1.4 INCHES CAN BE SEEN OVER SOUTHERN SONORA
MEXICO. THE LATEST RADAR MOSAIC LOOP SHOWS NUMEROUS SHOWERS
SPREADING NORTHWARD...GENERALLY ALONG THE COLORADO RIVER BASIN AND
EXTENDING INTO SOUTHERN NEVADA. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS CAN BE
SEEN NORTH OF THE PHOENIX AREA FROM AROUND NEW RIVER TO FLAGSTAFF.
CLOSER TO HOME...MY FORECAST AREA REMAINS VOID OF PRECIPITATION
ECHOES AT THIS TIME.

MODELS INDICATE THAT THE LOW WILL LIFT TO THE EAST NORTHEAST TODAY
WITH THE BATCH OF SHOWERS CURRENTLY SEEN ACROSS WESTERN ARIZONA
SWEEPING THROUGH THE STATE THIS AFTERNOON AND THROUGHOUT THE
EVENING. INHERITED A COUPLE OF WINTER WEATHER HEADLINES...INCLUDING
A WINTER STORM WARNING FOR THE WHITE MOUNTAINS OF GRAHAM AND
GREENLEE COUNTIES AND THE PINALENO AND GALIURO MOUNTAINS OF
SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH CENTRAL GRAHAM COUNTY. IN ADDITION...A WINTER
WEATHER ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR THE SANTA CATALINA AND RINCON
MOUNTAINS OF EASTERN PIMA COUNTY ABOVE 6500 FEET. THESE WINTER
WEATHER PRODUCTS TAKE EFFECT AT 11 AM MST THIS MORNING THROUGH 1 AM
MST TUESDAY. SNOW TOTALS FOR THE WHITE MOUNTAINS...PINALENO AND
GALIURO`S RANGING FROM 10 TO 14 INCHES...WITH AMOUNTS FOR THE
CATALINAS AND RINCONS RANGING FROM 6 TO 8 INCHES. VALLEY RAINFALL
AMOUNTS EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM 0.25 TO 0.60 INCHES...WITH ISOLATED
AMOUNTS AROUND 0.75 INCHES...ESPECIALLY TO THE NORTH.

WIND WILL BE A CONCERN FOR TODAY WITH BREEZY TO WINDY CONDITIONS
AREA WIDE...WITH THE STRONGEST WINDS ACROSS MUCH OF SANTA CRUZ...
COCHISE AND SOUTHEAST PIMA COUNTY. FOR NOW IT LOOKS LIKE WINDS
SHOULD REMAIN JUST BELOW ADVISORY CONDITIONS FOR ELEVATIONS BELOW
5000 FEET. HOWEVER...FOR ELEVATIONS ABOVE 5000 FEET A WIND ADVISORY
WILL BE NEEDED SINCE SUSTAINED WINDS OF 30 TO 40 MPH WITH GUSTS TO
AROUND 50 TO 55 MPH WILL OCCUR OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN.

ONCE THIS SYSTEM MOVES TO THE EAST A SECONDARY SYSTEM MOVING ACROSS
ARIZONA AND NORTHERN MEXICO WILL KEEP A SMALL THREAT FOR SHOWERS IN
THE FORECAST FOR TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY BEFORE DRY WEATHER
RETURNS LATE IN THE WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND AS HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS ACROSS THE WEST COAST AND DRY NORTH TO NORTHWEST WINDS
PREVAIL ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST.

FOR TUCSON...HIGH TEMPERATURES GENERALLY 6 TO 10 DEGS BELOW NORMAL
TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY...BUT THE COOLEST DAYS WILL OCCUR TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY. NEAR NORMAL HIGHS FOR FRIDAY...THEN SEVERAL DEGREES ABOVE
NORMAL FOR THE WEEKEND. LOW TEMPS AROUND 3 TO 5 DEGS BELOW NORMAL
TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY MORNINGS...THEN NEAR NORMAL
FRIDAY...FOLLOWED BY LOWS 2 TO 4 DEGS ABOVE NORMAL FOR THE WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION...VALID THRU 03/12Z.
AN APPROACHING STORM SYSTEM WILL BE IMPACTING THE AREA THRU THIS
EVENING.  EXPECT SCT CUMULUS NEAR 4-6K FT AGL WITH BKN-OVC LAYERS
ABV THROUGH 25K FT...THEN AFT 02/18Z BECOMING BKN-OVC 4-6K FT WITH
MULTIPLE LAYERS ABV AND IFR/MVFR CONDS OVER MTNS AND NEAR SHOWERS.
ISOLD SHOWERS THIS MORNING WILL BECOME WIDESPREAD THIS AFTERNOON.
CLOUDS AND SHOWERS DIMINISHING FROM THE WEST BEHIND THE COLD FRONT
WHICH WILL BE NEAR KTUS 02/23Z AND KDUG NEAR 03/05Z.  SFC WINDS S
8-16 KTS THEN INCREASING TO 15-25 KTS WITH HIGHER GUSTS TO 40 KTS IN
ADVANCE OF APPROACHING COLD FRONT.  STRONG SOUTHERLY JET TODAY WITH
WINDS 30-50 KTS 5-10K FT MSL.  AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR
TAF AMENDMENTS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...A SLOWLY APPROACHING STORM SYSTEM GENERATE STRONG
WINDS TODAY INTO THE EARLY EVENING...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE
MOUNTAINS.  WINDS WILL EASE BEHIND THE COLD FRONT WHICH WILL BE NEAR
TUCSON AROUND 4 PM THIS AFTERNOON AND THEN MOVE INTO NEW MEXICO
AROUND 10 PM.  A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED THIS MORNING THEN
BECOMING WIDESPREAD THIS AFTERNOON.  THE SHOWERS WILL DIMINISH
BEHIND THE COLD FRONT.  THEN WITH AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IN THE AREA
EXPECT VARIABLE CLOUDS AND A CHANCE OF SHOWERS NOW AND AGAIN THROUGH
WEDNESDAY.  DRY AND WARMER THURSDAY ONWARD.

&&

.TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
     WINTER STORM WARNING 11 AM MST THIS MORNING TO 1 AM MST
     TUESDAY ABOVE 6500 FEET FOR AZZ510-511.

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY 11 AM MST THIS MORNING TO 1 AM MST
     TUESDAY ABOVE 6500 FEET FOR AZZ514.

     WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM MST THIS EVENING ABOVE 5000 FEET FOR
     AZZ512>515.

&&

$$

VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...YOUTUBE...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/TUCSON

PUBLIC...MOLLERE
AVIATION/FIRE WEATHER...CERNIGLIA






000
FXUS65 KTWC 020957
AFDTWC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ
257 AM MST MON MAR 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...A STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM NEAR CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN
CALIFORNIA WILL BRING WINDY CONDITIONS AS WELL AS PERIODS OF VALLEY
RAIN AND MOUNTAIN SNOW BY MID DAY TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT.
PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL LESSEN CONSIDERABLY FOR MIDWEEK WITH DRY
CONDITIONS AREAWIDE AND WARMER TEMPERATURES BY THE END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS THE UPPER LOW EXPECTED TO
BRING WIDESPREAD VALLEY RAIN AND MOUNTAIN SNOW TO THE REGION IS
CURRENTLY SPINNING JUST OFFSHORE OF THE EXTREME SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA
COAST. PLENTY OF MOISTURE IS STREAMING TO THE NORTHEAST AHEAD OF
THIS SYSTEM ACROSS MUCH OF THE DESERT SOUTHWEST. SATELLITE DERIVED
BLENDED TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY SHOWS VALUES RANGING FROM
NEAR A HALF INCH ACROSS THE EXTREME EASTERN PARTS OF MY FORECAST
AREA NEAR THE NEW MEXICO BORDER...TO NEAR AN INCH AT YUMA. IN
ADDITION...PW`S OF NEAR 1.4 INCHES CAN BE SEEN OVER SOUTHERN SONORA
MEXICO. THE LATEST RADAR MOSAIC LOOP SHOWS NUMEROUS SHOWERS
SPREADING NORTHWARD...GENERALLY ALONG THE COLORADO RIVER BASIN AND
EXTENDING INTO SOUTHERN NEVADA. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS CAN BE
SEEN NORTH OF THE PHOENIX AREA FROM AROUND NEW RIVER TO FLAGSTAFF.
CLOSER TO HOME...MY FORECAST AREA REMAINS VOID OF PRECIPITATION
ECHOES AT THIS TIME.

MODELS INDICATE THAT THE LOW WILL LIFT TO THE EAST NORTHEAST TODAY
WITH THE BATCH OF SHOWERS CURRENTLY SEEN ACROSS WESTERN ARIZONA
SWEEPING THROUGH THE STATE THIS AFTERNOON AND THROUGHOUT THE
EVENING. INHERITED A COUPLE OF WINTER WEATHER HEADLINES...INCLUDING
A WINTER STORM WARNING FOR THE WHITE MOUNTAINS OF GRAHAM AND
GREENLEE COUNTIES AND THE PINALENO AND GALIURO MOUNTAINS OF
SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH CENTRAL GRAHAM COUNTY. IN ADDITION...A WINTER
WEATHER ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR THE SANTA CATALINA AND RINCON
MOUNTAINS OF EASTERN PIMA COUNTY ABOVE 6500 FEET. THESE WINTER
WEATHER PRODUCTS TAKE EFFECT AT 11 AM MST THIS MORNING THROUGH 1 AM
MST TUESDAY. SNOW TOTALS FOR THE WHITE MOUNTAINS...PINALENO AND
GALIURO`S RANGING FROM 10 TO 14 INCHES...WITH AMOUNTS FOR THE
CATALINAS AND RINCONS RANGING FROM 6 TO 8 INCHES. VALLEY RAINFALL
AMOUNTS EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM 0.25 TO 0.60 INCHES...WITH ISOLATED
AMOUNTS AROUND 0.75 INCHES...ESPECIALLY TO THE NORTH.

WIND WILL BE A CONCERN FOR TODAY WITH BREEZY TO WINDY CONDITIONS
AREA WIDE...WITH THE STRONGEST WINDS ACROSS MUCH OF SANTA CRUZ...
COCHISE AND SOUTHEAST PIMA COUNTY. FOR NOW IT LOOKS LIKE WINDS
SHOULD REMAIN JUST BELOW ADVISORY CONDITIONS FOR ELEVATIONS BELOW
5000 FEET. HOWEVER...FOR ELEVATIONS ABOVE 5000 FEET A WIND ADVISORY
WILL BE NEEDED SINCE SUSTAINED WINDS OF 30 TO 40 MPH WITH GUSTS TO
AROUND 50 TO 55 MPH WILL OCCUR OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN.

ONCE THIS SYSTEM MOVES TO THE EAST A SECONDARY SYSTEM MOVING ACROSS
ARIZONA AND NORTHERN MEXICO WILL KEEP A SMALL THREAT FOR SHOWERS IN
THE FORECAST FOR TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY BEFORE DRY WEATHER
RETURNS LATE IN THE WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND AS HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS ACROSS THE WEST COAST AND DRY NORTH TO NORTHWEST WINDS
PREVAIL ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST.

FOR TUCSON...HIGH TEMPERATURES GENERALLY 6 TO 10 DEGS BELOW NORMAL
TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY...BUT THE COOLEST DAYS WILL OCCUR TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY. NEAR NORMAL HIGHS FOR FRIDAY...THEN SEVERAL DEGREES ABOVE
NORMAL FOR THE WEEKEND. LOW TEMPS AROUND 3 TO 5 DEGS BELOW NORMAL
TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY MORNINGS...THEN NEAR NORMAL
FRIDAY...FOLLOWED BY LOWS 2 TO 4 DEGS ABOVE NORMAL FOR THE WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION...VALID THRU 03/12Z.
AN APPROACHING STORM SYSTEM WILL BE IMPACTING THE AREA THRU THIS
EVENING.  EXPECT SCT CUMULUS NEAR 4-6K FT AGL WITH BKN-OVC LAYERS
ABV THROUGH 25K FT...THEN AFT 02/18Z BECOMING BKN-OVC 4-6K FT WITH
MULTIPLE LAYERS ABV AND IFR/MVFR CONDS OVER MTNS AND NEAR SHOWERS.
ISOLD SHOWERS THIS MORNING WILL BECOME WIDESPREAD THIS AFTERNOON.
CLOUDS AND SHOWERS DIMINISHING FROM THE WEST BEHIND THE COLD FRONT
WHICH WILL BE NEAR KTUS 02/23Z AND KDUG NEAR 03/05Z.  SFC WINDS S
8-16 KTS THEN INCREASING TO 15-25 KTS WITH HIGHER GUSTS TO 40 KTS IN
ADVANCE OF APPROACHING COLD FRONT.  STRONG SOUTHERLY JET TODAY WITH
WINDS 30-50 KTS 5-10K FT MSL.  AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR
TAF AMENDMENTS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...A SLOWLY APPROACHING STORM SYSTEM GENERATE STRONG
WINDS TODAY INTO THE EARLY EVENING...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE
MOUNTAINS.  WINDS WILL EASE BEHIND THE COLD FRONT WHICH WILL BE NEAR
TUCSON AROUND 4 PM THIS AFTERNOON AND THEN MOVE INTO NEW MEXICO
AROUND 10 PM.  A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED THIS MORNING THEN
BECOMING WIDESPREAD THIS AFTERNOON.  THE SHOWERS WILL DIMINISH
BEHIND THE COLD FRONT.  THEN WITH AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IN THE AREA
EXPECT VARIABLE CLOUDS AND A CHANCE OF SHOWERS NOW AND AGAIN THROUGH
WEDNESDAY.  DRY AND WARMER THURSDAY ONWARD.

&&

.TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
     WINTER STORM WARNING 11 AM MST THIS MORNING TO 1 AM MST
     TUESDAY ABOVE 6500 FEET FOR AZZ510-511.

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY 11 AM MST THIS MORNING TO 1 AM MST
     TUESDAY ABOVE 6500 FEET FOR AZZ514.

     WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM MST THIS EVENING ABOVE 5000 FEET FOR
     AZZ512>515.

&&

$$

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PUBLIC...MOLLERE
AVIATION/FIRE WEATHER...CERNIGLIA






000
FXUS65 KPSR 020930
AFDPSR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION ...CORRECTION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PHOENIX AZ
230 AM MST MON MAR 2 2015

...POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAIN AFFECTING THE SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH
CENTRAL AZ DESERTS THROUGH LATE TODAY...

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION WILL EXPAND FROM SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA INTO
ARIZONA TODAY...AND WILL SLOWLY SHIFT EASTWARD DURING THE COURSE OF
THE DAY. PERIODS OF MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN ARE
ANTICIPATED...ESPECIALLY OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN AND FOOTHILL
LOCATIONS OF SOUTH CENTRAL ARIZONA. THERE WILL ALSO BE A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS AS WELL...MAINLY DURING THE AFTERNOON AND
EARLY EVENING HOURS. COOLER TEMPERATURES WILL ALSO ACCOMPANY THIS
SYSTEM WITH BELOW NORMAL READINGS EXPECTED FROM TODAY THROUGH MID
WEEK. A RETURN TO ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES IS LIKELY BY LATE WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

TODAY AND TONIGHT...

THE WELL-ADVERTISED UPPER-LEVEL LOW CENTER...THAT HAS BEEN DROPPING
SOUTHWARD ALONG THE WEST COAST OVER THE LAST FEW DAYS...IS FINALLY
BEGINNING TO MOVE OFF TO THE EAST...INTO SOUTHERN CA THIS MORNING AS
THE LONG-AWAITED UPSTREAM KICKER...MOVES SOUTHWARD ACROSS NORTHERN
CA TOWARDS THIS LOW CENTER. THIS SYSTEM...WHICH BROUGHT RAINFALL
AMOUNTS RANGING FROM 0.25 INCH TO JUST OVER 1.00 INCH TO MUCH OF SE
CA YESTERDAY AND LAST NIGHT...WHICH WAS FORECAST WELL BY THE GFS
MODEL OUTPUT...IS EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO WESTERN ARIZONA THIS
MORNING...THEN ACROSS SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING.
NOW THAT THE MAIN UPPER LOW IS FINALLY SHIFTING TO THE EAST...THE
BAROCLINIC LEAF AND ASSOCIATED AREA OF RAINFALL IS ALSO MOVING INTO
EXTREME WESTERN ARIZONA AS OF THIS HOUR...BRINGING LIGHT TO MODERATE
RAINFALL TO PARTS OF YUMA AND LA PAZ COUNTY. THE LATEST GFS AND HRRR
HI-RES MODELS ARE NOW IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE TIMING OF THIS SYSTEM
AS IT CONTINUES TO MOVE EASTWARD ACROSS AZ TODAY...WITH BOTH OF THEM
BRINGING RAINFALL TO THE GREATER PHX AREA AROUND DAYBREAK/DURING THE
MORNING COMMUTE...THEN INTO THE EASTERNMOST PORTION OF OUR CWA
(SOUTHERN GILA COUNTY) BY EARLY AFTERNOON.

ALTHOUGH THIS HAS TURNED INTO A FAIRLY PROGRESSIVE SYSTEM (AFTER A
DELAYED ARRIVAL)...IT STILL LOOKS LIKE A FAIRLY ROBUST SYSTEM...AND
IT IS STILL EXPECTED TO BRING LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN TO SOUTH-CENTRAL
ARIZONA TODAY...ESPECIALLY OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN NORTH AND EAST OF
PHOENIX. THIS IS DUE TO THE FACT THAT A PLUME OF VERY MOIST
AIR...WITH PWATS AROUND ONE INCH IS EXPECTED TO STREAM NORTH OVER
THE REGION TODAY ALONG AND JUST AHEAD OF THE MAIN SURFACE
FRONT/BAROCLINIC ZONE. THIS DEEP MOISTURE...COMBINED WITH GOOD
BAROCLINICITY...STRONG LOW-LEVEL UPSLOPE SOUTHERLY FLOW (850MB WINDS
IN THE 30-40KT RANGE)...AND INFLUENCE FROM THE RIGHT-ENTRANCE REGION
OF THE JET IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE A RATHER SOLID BAND OF
MODERATE-HEAVY RAINFALL DURING ITS PASSAGE ACROSS SOUTH-CENTRAL
ARIZONA. ALSO...EVEN THOUGH THERE IS NOW A WHOLE LOT OF CAPE IN THE
FORECAST SOUNDINGS (A COUPLE HUNDRED JOULES/KG AT MOST)...THERE
APPEARS TO BE ENOUGH LIFT TO TRIGGER A FEW EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS
THIS AFTERNOON AS THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH. THE COMBINATION OF THE
GENERAL RAINFALL...RANGING FROM AROUND 1/2 INCH OVER WESTERN
MARICOPA COUNTY TO AS MUCH AS 2.00 INCHES IN THE MOST FAVORED
LOCATIONS OVER EXTREME NORTH AND NORTHEAST MARICOPA COUNTY...WITH
THESE HEAVIER SHOWERS...WILL LIKELY PRODUCE AT LEAST SOME LOCAL
FLOODING PROBLEMS IN OUR WASHES...HIGHWAY DIPS...AND LOW-LYING
AREAS. THERE COULD ALSO BE SOME RISES IN SOME OF OUR SMALLER CREEKS
AND STREAMS...ESPECIALLY OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN. SNOWFALL...IF
ANY...IS STILL EXPECTED TO BE CONFINED TO OUR HIGHEST PEAKS...WHERE
A DUSTING TO PERHAPS AN INCH COULD FALL BEFORE THE PRECIP ENDS THIS
EVENING. ON THE OTHER HAND...MUCH GREATER SNOWFALL AMOUNTS ARE
EXPECTED FURTHER NORTH AND EAST...FROM THE FLAGSTAFF AREA EAST
ACROSS THE RIM COUNTY INTO THE WHITE MTNS.

IT NOW APPEARS THAT THE RAINFALL SHOULD DIMINISH RATHER RAPIDLY THIS
EVENING FROM WEST TO EAST AS THE MAIN UPPER TROF MOVES OFF TO THE
EAST AND THE LOW-LEVEL SOUTHERLY JET RAPIDLY BREAKS DOWN AND SHIFTS
TO A MUCH LIGHTER WESTERLY FLOW...WITH JUST A FEW LEFT-OVER
SPRINKLES OR LIGHT SHOWERS REMAINING BY LATE TONIGHT...MAINLY OVER
SOUTHERN GILA COUNTY. TEMPERATURES TODAY ARE EXPECTED TO BE MUCH
COOLER THAN WHAT WE SAW ON SUNDAY...WITH MANY LOWER DESERT LOCATIONS
ACROSS SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA STAYING DOWN IN THE 50S THROUGH MUCH OF
THE DAY. LOWS TONIGHT ARE EXPECTED TO FALL INTO THE 40S AT MOST
LOWER DESERT LOCATIONS...WHICH IS NOW A FEW DEGREES BELOW NORMAL FOR
THIS TIME OF YEAR.

TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...
A MUCH DRIER WEATHER REGIME IS EXPECTED AS NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT
BECOMES ESTABLISHED ACROSS THE REGION...WITH JUST A FEW SHOWERS
POSSIBLE FROM TIME-TO-TIME OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN EAST OF
PHOENIX...AS WEAK SHORTWAVES EMBEDDED IN THIS NW FLOW MOVE ACROSS
EXTREME EASTERN AZ. TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO MAKE A SLOW REBOUND
AS 500MB HEIGHTS RISE...WITH HIGHS RETURNING TO NEAR-NORMAL VALUES
BY THURSDAY.

FRIDAY INTO NEXT WEEKEND...
A WARMING TREND IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THIS PERIOD UNDER
MAINLY CLEAR SKIES AS HIGH PRESSURE STRENGTHENS OVER THE
REGION...WITH A DECENT CHANCE FOR HIGHS IN THE 80S ACROSS THE LOWER
DESERTS BY NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION...
SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA INCLUDING KPHX...KIWA AND KSDL...
A MOIST COLD FRONT APPROACHING FOR MONDAY MORNING. CLOUDS AND
SHOWERS WILL SLOWLY INCREASE AFTER 08Z MON...REACHING A PEAK AROUND
18Z MON. AS A RESULT...BKN CLDS BETWEEN 6-8 THSD AGL THROUGH 15Z
MON...THEN LOWERING TO NEAR 2 THSD BKN IN MODERATE RAIN AT TIMES
BETWEEN 15Z AND 21Z MON. SOUTH WIND 6 TO 8 KNOTS...BECOMING GUSTY
NEAR 20 KNOTS AROUND 17Z WITH SHOWERS.


SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA AND SOUTHWEST ARIZONA INCLUDING KIPL AND KBLH...
A MOIST COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH THE AREA BETWEEN 07Z-12Z MON.  AS
A RESULT...OCCASIONAL MVFR CONDITIONS IN CLOUDS AND RAIN. CIGS NEAR
3 THSD AGL WITH OCCASIONAL MODERATE RAIN THROUGH 11Z...CLOUDS
LIFTING AND RAIN ENDING AFTER 13Z MON.

AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDED TAFS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...
COOL AND STILL RELATIVELY MOIST CONDITIONS WILL BE PRESENT ON
TUESDAY WITH LINGERING RAIN CHANCES ACROSS SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA.
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE AND DRYING CONDITIONS WILL MOVE IN STARTING
WEDNESDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL WARM BACK TOWARD NORMALS BY THURSDAY
AND THEN A FEW DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. WINDS
WILL BE RELATIVELY LIGHT THROUGH THE PERIOD...BUT AFTERNOON
BREEZINESS IS EXPECTED ON WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. MINIMUM
HUMIDITIES WILL DROP INTO THE 20S ON WEDNESDAY AND THEN INTO THE
TEENS EACH AFTERNOON STARTING THURSDAY.

&&

.PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

AZ...FLOOD WATCH FROM 5 PM TODAY THROUGH 5 PM MONDAY AZZ020>021.
     FLOOD WATCH FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT THROUGH 8 PM MONDAY
     AZZ022>024.

CA...FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 12 PM MONDAY CAZ031>033.

&&

$$

VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/PHOENIX

DISCUSSION...PERCHA
AVIATION...VASQUEZ
FIRE WEATHER...KUHLMAN





000
FXUS65 KPSR 020930
AFDPSR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION ...CORRECTION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PHOENIX AZ
230 AM MST MON MAR 2 2015

...POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAIN AFFECTING THE SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH
CENTRAL AZ DESERTS THROUGH LATE TODAY...

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION WILL EXPAND FROM SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA INTO
ARIZONA TODAY...AND WILL SLOWLY SHIFT EASTWARD DURING THE COURSE OF
THE DAY. PERIODS OF MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN ARE
ANTICIPATED...ESPECIALLY OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN AND FOOTHILL
LOCATIONS OF SOUTH CENTRAL ARIZONA. THERE WILL ALSO BE A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS AS WELL...MAINLY DURING THE AFTERNOON AND
EARLY EVENING HOURS. COOLER TEMPERATURES WILL ALSO ACCOMPANY THIS
SYSTEM WITH BELOW NORMAL READINGS EXPECTED FROM TODAY THROUGH MID
WEEK. A RETURN TO ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES IS LIKELY BY LATE WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

TODAY AND TONIGHT...

THE WELL-ADVERTISED UPPER-LEVEL LOW CENTER...THAT HAS BEEN DROPPING
SOUTHWARD ALONG THE WEST COAST OVER THE LAST FEW DAYS...IS FINALLY
BEGINNING TO MOVE OFF TO THE EAST...INTO SOUTHERN CA THIS MORNING AS
THE LONG-AWAITED UPSTREAM KICKER...MOVES SOUTHWARD ACROSS NORTHERN
CA TOWARDS THIS LOW CENTER. THIS SYSTEM...WHICH BROUGHT RAINFALL
AMOUNTS RANGING FROM 0.25 INCH TO JUST OVER 1.00 INCH TO MUCH OF SE
CA YESTERDAY AND LAST NIGHT...WHICH WAS FORECAST WELL BY THE GFS
MODEL OUTPUT...IS EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO WESTERN ARIZONA THIS
MORNING...THEN ACROSS SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING.
NOW THAT THE MAIN UPPER LOW IS FINALLY SHIFTING TO THE EAST...THE
BAROCLINIC LEAF AND ASSOCIATED AREA OF RAINFALL IS ALSO MOVING INTO
EXTREME WESTERN ARIZONA AS OF THIS HOUR...BRINGING LIGHT TO MODERATE
RAINFALL TO PARTS OF YUMA AND LA PAZ COUNTY. THE LATEST GFS AND HRRR
HI-RES MODELS ARE NOW IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE TIMING OF THIS SYSTEM
AS IT CONTINUES TO MOVE EASTWARD ACROSS AZ TODAY...WITH BOTH OF THEM
BRINGING RAINFALL TO THE GREATER PHX AREA AROUND DAYBREAK/DURING THE
MORNING COMMUTE...THEN INTO THE EASTERNMOST PORTION OF OUR CWA
(SOUTHERN GILA COUNTY) BY EARLY AFTERNOON.

ALTHOUGH THIS HAS TURNED INTO A FAIRLY PROGRESSIVE SYSTEM (AFTER A
DELAYED ARRIVAL)...IT STILL LOOKS LIKE A FAIRLY ROBUST SYSTEM...AND
IT IS STILL EXPECTED TO BRING LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN TO SOUTH-CENTRAL
ARIZONA TODAY...ESPECIALLY OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN NORTH AND EAST OF
PHOENIX. THIS IS DUE TO THE FACT THAT A PLUME OF VERY MOIST
AIR...WITH PWATS AROUND ONE INCH IS EXPECTED TO STREAM NORTH OVER
THE REGION TODAY ALONG AND JUST AHEAD OF THE MAIN SURFACE
FRONT/BAROCLINIC ZONE. THIS DEEP MOISTURE...COMBINED WITH GOOD
BAROCLINICITY...STRONG LOW-LEVEL UPSLOPE SOUTHERLY FLOW (850MB WINDS
IN THE 30-40KT RANGE)...AND INFLUENCE FROM THE RIGHT-ENTRANCE REGION
OF THE JET IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE A RATHER SOLID BAND OF
MODERATE-HEAVY RAINFALL DURING ITS PASSAGE ACROSS SOUTH-CENTRAL
ARIZONA. ALSO...EVEN THOUGH THERE IS NOW A WHOLE LOT OF CAPE IN THE
FORECAST SOUNDINGS (A COUPLE HUNDRED JOULES/KG AT MOST)...THERE
APPEARS TO BE ENOUGH LIFT TO TRIGGER A FEW EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS
THIS AFTERNOON AS THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH. THE COMBINATION OF THE
GENERAL RAINFALL...RANGING FROM AROUND 1/2 INCH OVER WESTERN
MARICOPA COUNTY TO AS MUCH AS 2.00 INCHES IN THE MOST FAVORED
LOCATIONS OVER EXTREME NORTH AND NORTHEAST MARICOPA COUNTY...WITH
THESE HEAVIER SHOWERS...WILL LIKELY PRODUCE AT LEAST SOME LOCAL
FLOODING PROBLEMS IN OUR WASHES...HIGHWAY DIPS...AND LOW-LYING
AREAS. THERE COULD ALSO BE SOME RISES IN SOME OF OUR SMALLER CREEKS
AND STREAMS...ESPECIALLY OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN. SNOWFALL...IF
ANY...IS STILL EXPECTED TO BE CONFINED TO OUR HIGHEST PEAKS...WHERE
A DUSTING TO PERHAPS AN INCH COULD FALL BEFORE THE PRECIP ENDS THIS
EVENING. ON THE OTHER HAND...MUCH GREATER SNOWFALL AMOUNTS ARE
EXPECTED FURTHER NORTH AND EAST...FROM THE FLAGSTAFF AREA EAST
ACROSS THE RIM COUNTY INTO THE WHITE MTNS.

IT NOW APPEARS THAT THE RAINFALL SHOULD DIMINISH RATHER RAPIDLY THIS
EVENING FROM WEST TO EAST AS THE MAIN UPPER TROF MOVES OFF TO THE
EAST AND THE LOW-LEVEL SOUTHERLY JET RAPIDLY BREAKS DOWN AND SHIFTS
TO A MUCH LIGHTER WESTERLY FLOW...WITH JUST A FEW LEFT-OVER
SPRINKLES OR LIGHT SHOWERS REMAINING BY LATE TONIGHT...MAINLY OVER
SOUTHERN GILA COUNTY. TEMPERATURES TODAY ARE EXPECTED TO BE MUCH
COOLER THAN WHAT WE SAW ON SUNDAY...WITH MANY LOWER DESERT LOCATIONS
ACROSS SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA STAYING DOWN IN THE 50S THROUGH MUCH OF
THE DAY. LOWS TONIGHT ARE EXPECTED TO FALL INTO THE 40S AT MOST
LOWER DESERT LOCATIONS...WHICH IS NOW A FEW DEGREES BELOW NORMAL FOR
THIS TIME OF YEAR.

TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...
A MUCH DRIER WEATHER REGIME IS EXPECTED AS NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT
BECOMES ESTABLISHED ACROSS THE REGION...WITH JUST A FEW SHOWERS
POSSIBLE FROM TIME-TO-TIME OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN EAST OF
PHOENIX...AS WEAK SHORTWAVES EMBEDDED IN THIS NW FLOW MOVE ACROSS
EXTREME EASTERN AZ. TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO MAKE A SLOW REBOUND
AS 500MB HEIGHTS RISE...WITH HIGHS RETURNING TO NEAR-NORMAL VALUES
BY THURSDAY.

FRIDAY INTO NEXT WEEKEND...
A WARMING TREND IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THIS PERIOD UNDER
MAINLY CLEAR SKIES AS HIGH PRESSURE STRENGTHENS OVER THE
REGION...WITH A DECENT CHANCE FOR HIGHS IN THE 80S ACROSS THE LOWER
DESERTS BY NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION...
SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA INCLUDING KPHX...KIWA AND KSDL...
A MOIST COLD FRONT APPROACHING FOR MONDAY MORNING. CLOUDS AND
SHOWERS WILL SLOWLY INCREASE AFTER 08Z MON...REACHING A PEAK AROUND
18Z MON. AS A RESULT...BKN CLDS BETWEEN 6-8 THSD AGL THROUGH 15Z
MON...THEN LOWERING TO NEAR 2 THSD BKN IN MODERATE RAIN AT TIMES
BETWEEN 15Z AND 21Z MON. SOUTH WIND 6 TO 8 KNOTS...BECOMING GUSTY
NEAR 20 KNOTS AROUND 17Z WITH SHOWERS.


SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA AND SOUTHWEST ARIZONA INCLUDING KIPL AND KBLH...
A MOIST COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH THE AREA BETWEEN 07Z-12Z MON.  AS
A RESULT...OCCASIONAL MVFR CONDITIONS IN CLOUDS AND RAIN. CIGS NEAR
3 THSD AGL WITH OCCASIONAL MODERATE RAIN THROUGH 11Z...CLOUDS
LIFTING AND RAIN ENDING AFTER 13Z MON.

AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDED TAFS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...
COOL AND STILL RELATIVELY MOIST CONDITIONS WILL BE PRESENT ON
TUESDAY WITH LINGERING RAIN CHANCES ACROSS SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA.
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE AND DRYING CONDITIONS WILL MOVE IN STARTING
WEDNESDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL WARM BACK TOWARD NORMALS BY THURSDAY
AND THEN A FEW DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. WINDS
WILL BE RELATIVELY LIGHT THROUGH THE PERIOD...BUT AFTERNOON
BREEZINESS IS EXPECTED ON WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. MINIMUM
HUMIDITIES WILL DROP INTO THE 20S ON WEDNESDAY AND THEN INTO THE
TEENS EACH AFTERNOON STARTING THURSDAY.

&&

.PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

AZ...FLOOD WATCH FROM 5 PM TODAY THROUGH 5 PM MONDAY AZZ020>021.
     FLOOD WATCH FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT THROUGH 8 PM MONDAY
     AZZ022>024.

CA...FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 12 PM MONDAY CAZ031>033.

&&

$$

VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/PHOENIX

DISCUSSION...PERCHA
AVIATION...VASQUEZ
FIRE WEATHER...KUHLMAN





000
FXUS65 KPSR 020930
AFDPSR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION ...CORRECTION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PHOENIX AZ
230 AM MST MON MAR 2 2015

...POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAIN AFFECTING THE SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH
CENTRAL AZ DESERTS THROUGH LATE TODAY...

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION WILL EXPAND FROM SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA INTO
ARIZONA TODAY...AND WILL SLOWLY SHIFT EASTWARD DURING THE COURSE OF
THE DAY. PERIODS OF MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN ARE
ANTICIPATED...ESPECIALLY OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN AND FOOTHILL
LOCATIONS OF SOUTH CENTRAL ARIZONA. THERE WILL ALSO BE A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS AS WELL...MAINLY DURING THE AFTERNOON AND
EARLY EVENING HOURS. COOLER TEMPERATURES WILL ALSO ACCOMPANY THIS
SYSTEM WITH BELOW NORMAL READINGS EXPECTED FROM TODAY THROUGH MID
WEEK. A RETURN TO ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES IS LIKELY BY LATE WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

TODAY AND TONIGHT...

THE WELL-ADVERTISED UPPER-LEVEL LOW CENTER...THAT HAS BEEN DROPPING
SOUTHWARD ALONG THE WEST COAST OVER THE LAST FEW DAYS...IS FINALLY
BEGINNING TO MOVE OFF TO THE EAST...INTO SOUTHERN CA THIS MORNING AS
THE LONG-AWAITED UPSTREAM KICKER...MOVES SOUTHWARD ACROSS NORTHERN
CA TOWARDS THIS LOW CENTER. THIS SYSTEM...WHICH BROUGHT RAINFALL
AMOUNTS RANGING FROM 0.25 INCH TO JUST OVER 1.00 INCH TO MUCH OF SE
CA YESTERDAY AND LAST NIGHT...WHICH WAS FORECAST WELL BY THE GFS
MODEL OUTPUT...IS EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO WESTERN ARIZONA THIS
MORNING...THEN ACROSS SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING.
NOW THAT THE MAIN UPPER LOW IS FINALLY SHIFTING TO THE EAST...THE
BAROCLINIC LEAF AND ASSOCIATED AREA OF RAINFALL IS ALSO MOVING INTO
EXTREME WESTERN ARIZONA AS OF THIS HOUR...BRINGING LIGHT TO MODERATE
RAINFALL TO PARTS OF YUMA AND LA PAZ COUNTY. THE LATEST GFS AND HRRR
HI-RES MODELS ARE NOW IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE TIMING OF THIS SYSTEM
AS IT CONTINUES TO MOVE EASTWARD ACROSS AZ TODAY...WITH BOTH OF THEM
BRINGING RAINFALL TO THE GREATER PHX AREA AROUND DAYBREAK/DURING THE
MORNING COMMUTE...THEN INTO THE EASTERNMOST PORTION OF OUR CWA
(SOUTHERN GILA COUNTY) BY EARLY AFTERNOON.

ALTHOUGH THIS HAS TURNED INTO A FAIRLY PROGRESSIVE SYSTEM (AFTER A
DELAYED ARRIVAL)...IT STILL LOOKS LIKE A FAIRLY ROBUST SYSTEM...AND
IT IS STILL EXPECTED TO BRING LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN TO SOUTH-CENTRAL
ARIZONA TODAY...ESPECIALLY OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN NORTH AND EAST OF
PHOENIX. THIS IS DUE TO THE FACT THAT A PLUME OF VERY MOIST
AIR...WITH PWATS AROUND ONE INCH IS EXPECTED TO STREAM NORTH OVER
THE REGION TODAY ALONG AND JUST AHEAD OF THE MAIN SURFACE
FRONT/BAROCLINIC ZONE. THIS DEEP MOISTURE...COMBINED WITH GOOD
BAROCLINICITY...STRONG LOW-LEVEL UPSLOPE SOUTHERLY FLOW (850MB WINDS
IN THE 30-40KT RANGE)...AND INFLUENCE FROM THE RIGHT-ENTRANCE REGION
OF THE JET IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE A RATHER SOLID BAND OF
MODERATE-HEAVY RAINFALL DURING ITS PASSAGE ACROSS SOUTH-CENTRAL
ARIZONA. ALSO...EVEN THOUGH THERE IS NOW A WHOLE LOT OF CAPE IN THE
FORECAST SOUNDINGS (A COUPLE HUNDRED JOULES/KG AT MOST)...THERE
APPEARS TO BE ENOUGH LIFT TO TRIGGER A FEW EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS
THIS AFTERNOON AS THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH. THE COMBINATION OF THE
GENERAL RAINFALL...RANGING FROM AROUND 1/2 INCH OVER WESTERN
MARICOPA COUNTY TO AS MUCH AS 2.00 INCHES IN THE MOST FAVORED
LOCATIONS OVER EXTREME NORTH AND NORTHEAST MARICOPA COUNTY...WITH
THESE HEAVIER SHOWERS...WILL LIKELY PRODUCE AT LEAST SOME LOCAL
FLOODING PROBLEMS IN OUR WASHES...HIGHWAY DIPS...AND LOW-LYING
AREAS. THERE COULD ALSO BE SOME RISES IN SOME OF OUR SMALLER CREEKS
AND STREAMS...ESPECIALLY OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN. SNOWFALL...IF
ANY...IS STILL EXPECTED TO BE CONFINED TO OUR HIGHEST PEAKS...WHERE
A DUSTING TO PERHAPS AN INCH COULD FALL BEFORE THE PRECIP ENDS THIS
EVENING. ON THE OTHER HAND...MUCH GREATER SNOWFALL AMOUNTS ARE
EXPECTED FURTHER NORTH AND EAST...FROM THE FLAGSTAFF AREA EAST
ACROSS THE RIM COUNTY INTO THE WHITE MTNS.

IT NOW APPEARS THAT THE RAINFALL SHOULD DIMINISH RATHER RAPIDLY THIS
EVENING FROM WEST TO EAST AS THE MAIN UPPER TROF MOVES OFF TO THE
EAST AND THE LOW-LEVEL SOUTHERLY JET RAPIDLY BREAKS DOWN AND SHIFTS
TO A MUCH LIGHTER WESTERLY FLOW...WITH JUST A FEW LEFT-OVER
SPRINKLES OR LIGHT SHOWERS REMAINING BY LATE TONIGHT...MAINLY OVER
SOUTHERN GILA COUNTY. TEMPERATURES TODAY ARE EXPECTED TO BE MUCH
COOLER THAN WHAT WE SAW ON SUNDAY...WITH MANY LOWER DESERT LOCATIONS
ACROSS SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA STAYING DOWN IN THE 50S THROUGH MUCH OF
THE DAY. LOWS TONIGHT ARE EXPECTED TO FALL INTO THE 40S AT MOST
LOWER DESERT LOCATIONS...WHICH IS NOW A FEW DEGREES BELOW NORMAL FOR
THIS TIME OF YEAR.

TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...
A MUCH DRIER WEATHER REGIME IS EXPECTED AS NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT
BECOMES ESTABLISHED ACROSS THE REGION...WITH JUST A FEW SHOWERS
POSSIBLE FROM TIME-TO-TIME OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN EAST OF
PHOENIX...AS WEAK SHORTWAVES EMBEDDED IN THIS NW FLOW MOVE ACROSS
EXTREME EASTERN AZ. TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO MAKE A SLOW REBOUND
AS 500MB HEIGHTS RISE...WITH HIGHS RETURNING TO NEAR-NORMAL VALUES
BY THURSDAY.

FRIDAY INTO NEXT WEEKEND...
A WARMING TREND IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THIS PERIOD UNDER
MAINLY CLEAR SKIES AS HIGH PRESSURE STRENGTHENS OVER THE
REGION...WITH A DECENT CHANCE FOR HIGHS IN THE 80S ACROSS THE LOWER
DESERTS BY NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION...
SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA INCLUDING KPHX...KIWA AND KSDL...
A MOIST COLD FRONT APPROACHING FOR MONDAY MORNING. CLOUDS AND
SHOWERS WILL SLOWLY INCREASE AFTER 08Z MON...REACHING A PEAK AROUND
18Z MON. AS A RESULT...BKN CLDS BETWEEN 6-8 THSD AGL THROUGH 15Z
MON...THEN LOWERING TO NEAR 2 THSD BKN IN MODERATE RAIN AT TIMES
BETWEEN 15Z AND 21Z MON. SOUTH WIND 6 TO 8 KNOTS...BECOMING GUSTY
NEAR 20 KNOTS AROUND 17Z WITH SHOWERS.


SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA AND SOUTHWEST ARIZONA INCLUDING KIPL AND KBLH...
A MOIST COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH THE AREA BETWEEN 07Z-12Z MON.  AS
A RESULT...OCCASIONAL MVFR CONDITIONS IN CLOUDS AND RAIN. CIGS NEAR
3 THSD AGL WITH OCCASIONAL MODERATE RAIN THROUGH 11Z...CLOUDS
LIFTING AND RAIN ENDING AFTER 13Z MON.

AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDED TAFS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...
COOL AND STILL RELATIVELY MOIST CONDITIONS WILL BE PRESENT ON
TUESDAY WITH LINGERING RAIN CHANCES ACROSS SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA.
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE AND DRYING CONDITIONS WILL MOVE IN STARTING
WEDNESDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL WARM BACK TOWARD NORMALS BY THURSDAY
AND THEN A FEW DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. WINDS
WILL BE RELATIVELY LIGHT THROUGH THE PERIOD...BUT AFTERNOON
BREEZINESS IS EXPECTED ON WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. MINIMUM
HUMIDITIES WILL DROP INTO THE 20S ON WEDNESDAY AND THEN INTO THE
TEENS EACH AFTERNOON STARTING THURSDAY.

&&

.PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

AZ...FLOOD WATCH FROM 5 PM TODAY THROUGH 5 PM MONDAY AZZ020>021.
     FLOOD WATCH FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT THROUGH 8 PM MONDAY
     AZZ022>024.

CA...FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 12 PM MONDAY CAZ031>033.

&&

$$

VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/PHOENIX

DISCUSSION...PERCHA
AVIATION...VASQUEZ
FIRE WEATHER...KUHLMAN





000
FXUS65 KPSR 020930
AFDPSR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION ...CORRECTION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PHOENIX AZ
230 AM MST MON MAR 2 2015

...POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAIN AFFECTING THE SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH
CENTRAL AZ DESERTS THROUGH LATE TODAY...

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION WILL EXPAND FROM SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA INTO
ARIZONA TODAY...AND WILL SLOWLY SHIFT EASTWARD DURING THE COURSE OF
THE DAY. PERIODS OF MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN ARE
ANTICIPATED...ESPECIALLY OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN AND FOOTHILL
LOCATIONS OF SOUTH CENTRAL ARIZONA. THERE WILL ALSO BE A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS AS WELL...MAINLY DURING THE AFTERNOON AND
EARLY EVENING HOURS. COOLER TEMPERATURES WILL ALSO ACCOMPANY THIS
SYSTEM WITH BELOW NORMAL READINGS EXPECTED FROM TODAY THROUGH MID
WEEK. A RETURN TO ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES IS LIKELY BY LATE WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

TODAY AND TONIGHT...

THE WELL-ADVERTISED UPPER-LEVEL LOW CENTER...THAT HAS BEEN DROPPING
SOUTHWARD ALONG THE WEST COAST OVER THE LAST FEW DAYS...IS FINALLY
BEGINNING TO MOVE OFF TO THE EAST...INTO SOUTHERN CA THIS MORNING AS
THE LONG-AWAITED UPSTREAM KICKER...MOVES SOUTHWARD ACROSS NORTHERN
CA TOWARDS THIS LOW CENTER. THIS SYSTEM...WHICH BROUGHT RAINFALL
AMOUNTS RANGING FROM 0.25 INCH TO JUST OVER 1.00 INCH TO MUCH OF SE
CA YESTERDAY AND LAST NIGHT...WHICH WAS FORECAST WELL BY THE GFS
MODEL OUTPUT...IS EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO WESTERN ARIZONA THIS
MORNING...THEN ACROSS SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING.
NOW THAT THE MAIN UPPER LOW IS FINALLY SHIFTING TO THE EAST...THE
BAROCLINIC LEAF AND ASSOCIATED AREA OF RAINFALL IS ALSO MOVING INTO
EXTREME WESTERN ARIZONA AS OF THIS HOUR...BRINGING LIGHT TO MODERATE
RAINFALL TO PARTS OF YUMA AND LA PAZ COUNTY. THE LATEST GFS AND HRRR
HI-RES MODELS ARE NOW IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE TIMING OF THIS SYSTEM
AS IT CONTINUES TO MOVE EASTWARD ACROSS AZ TODAY...WITH BOTH OF THEM
BRINGING RAINFALL TO THE GREATER PHX AREA AROUND DAYBREAK/DURING THE
MORNING COMMUTE...THEN INTO THE EASTERNMOST PORTION OF OUR CWA
(SOUTHERN GILA COUNTY) BY EARLY AFTERNOON.

ALTHOUGH THIS HAS TURNED INTO A FAIRLY PROGRESSIVE SYSTEM (AFTER A
DELAYED ARRIVAL)...IT STILL LOOKS LIKE A FAIRLY ROBUST SYSTEM...AND
IT IS STILL EXPECTED TO BRING LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN TO SOUTH-CENTRAL
ARIZONA TODAY...ESPECIALLY OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN NORTH AND EAST OF
PHOENIX. THIS IS DUE TO THE FACT THAT A PLUME OF VERY MOIST
AIR...WITH PWATS AROUND ONE INCH IS EXPECTED TO STREAM NORTH OVER
THE REGION TODAY ALONG AND JUST AHEAD OF THE MAIN SURFACE
FRONT/BAROCLINIC ZONE. THIS DEEP MOISTURE...COMBINED WITH GOOD
BAROCLINICITY...STRONG LOW-LEVEL UPSLOPE SOUTHERLY FLOW (850MB WINDS
IN THE 30-40KT RANGE)...AND INFLUENCE FROM THE RIGHT-ENTRANCE REGION
OF THE JET IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE A RATHER SOLID BAND OF
MODERATE-HEAVY RAINFALL DURING ITS PASSAGE ACROSS SOUTH-CENTRAL
ARIZONA. ALSO...EVEN THOUGH THERE IS NOW A WHOLE LOT OF CAPE IN THE
FORECAST SOUNDINGS (A COUPLE HUNDRED JOULES/KG AT MOST)...THERE
APPEARS TO BE ENOUGH LIFT TO TRIGGER A FEW EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS
THIS AFTERNOON AS THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH. THE COMBINATION OF THE
GENERAL RAINFALL...RANGING FROM AROUND 1/2 INCH OVER WESTERN
MARICOPA COUNTY TO AS MUCH AS 2.00 INCHES IN THE MOST FAVORED
LOCATIONS OVER EXTREME NORTH AND NORTHEAST MARICOPA COUNTY...WITH
THESE HEAVIER SHOWERS...WILL LIKELY PRODUCE AT LEAST SOME LOCAL
FLOODING PROBLEMS IN OUR WASHES...HIGHWAY DIPS...AND LOW-LYING
AREAS. THERE COULD ALSO BE SOME RISES IN SOME OF OUR SMALLER CREEKS
AND STREAMS...ESPECIALLY OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN. SNOWFALL...IF
ANY...IS STILL EXPECTED TO BE CONFINED TO OUR HIGHEST PEAKS...WHERE
A DUSTING TO PERHAPS AN INCH COULD FALL BEFORE THE PRECIP ENDS THIS
EVENING. ON THE OTHER HAND...MUCH GREATER SNOWFALL AMOUNTS ARE
EXPECTED FURTHER NORTH AND EAST...FROM THE FLAGSTAFF AREA EAST
ACROSS THE RIM COUNTY INTO THE WHITE MTNS.

IT NOW APPEARS THAT THE RAINFALL SHOULD DIMINISH RATHER RAPIDLY THIS
EVENING FROM WEST TO EAST AS THE MAIN UPPER TROF MOVES OFF TO THE
EAST AND THE LOW-LEVEL SOUTHERLY JET RAPIDLY BREAKS DOWN AND SHIFTS
TO A MUCH LIGHTER WESTERLY FLOW...WITH JUST A FEW LEFT-OVER
SPRINKLES OR LIGHT SHOWERS REMAINING BY LATE TONIGHT...MAINLY OVER
SOUTHERN GILA COUNTY. TEMPERATURES TODAY ARE EXPECTED TO BE MUCH
COOLER THAN WHAT WE SAW ON SUNDAY...WITH MANY LOWER DESERT LOCATIONS
ACROSS SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA STAYING DOWN IN THE 50S THROUGH MUCH OF
THE DAY. LOWS TONIGHT ARE EXPECTED TO FALL INTO THE 40S AT MOST
LOWER DESERT LOCATIONS...WHICH IS NOW A FEW DEGREES BELOW NORMAL FOR
THIS TIME OF YEAR.

TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...
A MUCH DRIER WEATHER REGIME IS EXPECTED AS NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT
BECOMES ESTABLISHED ACROSS THE REGION...WITH JUST A FEW SHOWERS
POSSIBLE FROM TIME-TO-TIME OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN EAST OF
PHOENIX...AS WEAK SHORTWAVES EMBEDDED IN THIS NW FLOW MOVE ACROSS
EXTREME EASTERN AZ. TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO MAKE A SLOW REBOUND
AS 500MB HEIGHTS RISE...WITH HIGHS RETURNING TO NEAR-NORMAL VALUES
BY THURSDAY.

FRIDAY INTO NEXT WEEKEND...
A WARMING TREND IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THIS PERIOD UNDER
MAINLY CLEAR SKIES AS HIGH PRESSURE STRENGTHENS OVER THE
REGION...WITH A DECENT CHANCE FOR HIGHS IN THE 80S ACROSS THE LOWER
DESERTS BY NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION...
SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA INCLUDING KPHX...KIWA AND KSDL...
A MOIST COLD FRONT APPROACHING FOR MONDAY MORNING. CLOUDS AND
SHOWERS WILL SLOWLY INCREASE AFTER 08Z MON...REACHING A PEAK AROUND
18Z MON. AS A RESULT...BKN CLDS BETWEEN 6-8 THSD AGL THROUGH 15Z
MON...THEN LOWERING TO NEAR 2 THSD BKN IN MODERATE RAIN AT TIMES
BETWEEN 15Z AND 21Z MON. SOUTH WIND 6 TO 8 KNOTS...BECOMING GUSTY
NEAR 20 KNOTS AROUND 17Z WITH SHOWERS.


SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA AND SOUTHWEST ARIZONA INCLUDING KIPL AND KBLH...
A MOIST COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH THE AREA BETWEEN 07Z-12Z MON.  AS
A RESULT...OCCASIONAL MVFR CONDITIONS IN CLOUDS AND RAIN. CIGS NEAR
3 THSD AGL WITH OCCASIONAL MODERATE RAIN THROUGH 11Z...CLOUDS
LIFTING AND RAIN ENDING AFTER 13Z MON.

AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDED TAFS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...
COOL AND STILL RELATIVELY MOIST CONDITIONS WILL BE PRESENT ON
TUESDAY WITH LINGERING RAIN CHANCES ACROSS SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA.
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE AND DRYING CONDITIONS WILL MOVE IN STARTING
WEDNESDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL WARM BACK TOWARD NORMALS BY THURSDAY
AND THEN A FEW DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. WINDS
WILL BE RELATIVELY LIGHT THROUGH THE PERIOD...BUT AFTERNOON
BREEZINESS IS EXPECTED ON WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. MINIMUM
HUMIDITIES WILL DROP INTO THE 20S ON WEDNESDAY AND THEN INTO THE
TEENS EACH AFTERNOON STARTING THURSDAY.

&&

.PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

AZ...FLOOD WATCH FROM 5 PM TODAY THROUGH 5 PM MONDAY AZZ020>021.
     FLOOD WATCH FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT THROUGH 8 PM MONDAY
     AZZ022>024.

CA...FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 12 PM MONDAY CAZ031>033.

&&

$$

VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/PHOENIX

DISCUSSION...PERCHA
AVIATION...VASQUEZ
FIRE WEATHER...KUHLMAN





000
FXUS65 KPSR 020930
AFDPSR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION ...CORRECTION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PHOENIX AZ
230 AM MST MON MAR 2 2015

...POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAIN AFFECTING THE SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH
CENTRAL AZ DESERTS THROUGH LATE TODAY...

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION WILL EXPAND FROM SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA INTO
ARIZONA TODAY...AND WILL SLOWLY SHIFT EASTWARD DURING THE COURSE OF
THE DAY. PERIODS OF MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN ARE
ANTICIPATED...ESPECIALLY OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN AND FOOTHILL
LOCATIONS OF SOUTH CENTRAL ARIZONA. THERE WILL ALSO BE A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS AS WELL...MAINLY DURING THE AFTERNOON AND
EARLY EVENING HOURS. COOLER TEMPERATURES WILL ALSO ACCOMPANY THIS
SYSTEM WITH BELOW NORMAL READINGS EXPECTED FROM TODAY THROUGH MID
WEEK. A RETURN TO ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES IS LIKELY BY LATE WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

TODAY AND TONIGHT...

THE WELL-ADVERTISED UPPER-LEVEL LOW CENTER...THAT HAS BEEN DROPPING
SOUTHWARD ALONG THE WEST COAST OVER THE LAST FEW DAYS...IS FINALLY
BEGINNING TO MOVE OFF TO THE EAST...INTO SOUTHERN CA THIS MORNING AS
THE LONG-AWAITED UPSTREAM KICKER...MOVES SOUTHWARD ACROSS NORTHERN
CA TOWARDS THIS LOW CENTER. THIS SYSTEM...WHICH BROUGHT RAINFALL
AMOUNTS RANGING FROM 0.25 INCH TO JUST OVER 1.00 INCH TO MUCH OF SE
CA YESTERDAY AND LAST NIGHT...WHICH WAS FORECAST WELL BY THE GFS
MODEL OUTPUT...IS EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO WESTERN ARIZONA THIS
MORNING...THEN ACROSS SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING.
NOW THAT THE MAIN UPPER LOW IS FINALLY SHIFTING TO THE EAST...THE
BAROCLINIC LEAF AND ASSOCIATED AREA OF RAINFALL IS ALSO MOVING INTO
EXTREME WESTERN ARIZONA AS OF THIS HOUR...BRINGING LIGHT TO MODERATE
RAINFALL TO PARTS OF YUMA AND LA PAZ COUNTY. THE LATEST GFS AND HRRR
HI-RES MODELS ARE NOW IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE TIMING OF THIS SYSTEM
AS IT CONTINUES TO MOVE EASTWARD ACROSS AZ TODAY...WITH BOTH OF THEM
BRINGING RAINFALL TO THE GREATER PHX AREA AROUND DAYBREAK/DURING THE
MORNING COMMUTE...THEN INTO THE EASTERNMOST PORTION OF OUR CWA
(SOUTHERN GILA COUNTY) BY EARLY AFTERNOON.

ALTHOUGH THIS HAS TURNED INTO A FAIRLY PROGRESSIVE SYSTEM (AFTER A
DELAYED ARRIVAL)...IT STILL LOOKS LIKE A FAIRLY ROBUST SYSTEM...AND
IT IS STILL EXPECTED TO BRING LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN TO SOUTH-CENTRAL
ARIZONA TODAY...ESPECIALLY OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN NORTH AND EAST OF
PHOENIX. THIS IS DUE TO THE FACT THAT A PLUME OF VERY MOIST
AIR...WITH PWATS AROUND ONE INCH IS EXPECTED TO STREAM NORTH OVER
THE REGION TODAY ALONG AND JUST AHEAD OF THE MAIN SURFACE
FRONT/BAROCLINIC ZONE. THIS DEEP MOISTURE...COMBINED WITH GOOD
BAROCLINICITY...STRONG LOW-LEVEL UPSLOPE SOUTHERLY FLOW (850MB WINDS
IN THE 30-40KT RANGE)...AND INFLUENCE FROM THE RIGHT-ENTRANCE REGION
OF THE JET IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE A RATHER SOLID BAND OF
MODERATE-HEAVY RAINFALL DURING ITS PASSAGE ACROSS SOUTH-CENTRAL
ARIZONA. ALSO...EVEN THOUGH THERE IS NOW A WHOLE LOT OF CAPE IN THE
FORECAST SOUNDINGS (A COUPLE HUNDRED JOULES/KG AT MOST)...THERE
APPEARS TO BE ENOUGH LIFT TO TRIGGER A FEW EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS
THIS AFTERNOON AS THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH. THE COMBINATION OF THE
GENERAL RAINFALL...RANGING FROM AROUND 1/2 INCH OVER WESTERN
MARICOPA COUNTY TO AS MUCH AS 2.00 INCHES IN THE MOST FAVORED
LOCATIONS OVER EXTREME NORTH AND NORTHEAST MARICOPA COUNTY...WITH
THESE HEAVIER SHOWERS...WILL LIKELY PRODUCE AT LEAST SOME LOCAL
FLOODING PROBLEMS IN OUR WASHES...HIGHWAY DIPS...AND LOW-LYING
AREAS. THERE COULD ALSO BE SOME RISES IN SOME OF OUR SMALLER CREEKS
AND STREAMS...ESPECIALLY OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN. SNOWFALL...IF
ANY...IS STILL EXPECTED TO BE CONFINED TO OUR HIGHEST PEAKS...WHERE
A DUSTING TO PERHAPS AN INCH COULD FALL BEFORE THE PRECIP ENDS THIS
EVENING. ON THE OTHER HAND...MUCH GREATER SNOWFALL AMOUNTS ARE
EXPECTED FURTHER NORTH AND EAST...FROM THE FLAGSTAFF AREA EAST
ACROSS THE RIM COUNTY INTO THE WHITE MTNS.

IT NOW APPEARS THAT THE RAINFALL SHOULD DIMINISH RATHER RAPIDLY THIS
EVENING FROM WEST TO EAST AS THE MAIN UPPER TROF MOVES OFF TO THE
EAST AND THE LOW-LEVEL SOUTHERLY JET RAPIDLY BREAKS DOWN AND SHIFTS
TO A MUCH LIGHTER WESTERLY FLOW...WITH JUST A FEW LEFT-OVER
SPRINKLES OR LIGHT SHOWERS REMAINING BY LATE TONIGHT...MAINLY OVER
SOUTHERN GILA COUNTY. TEMPERATURES TODAY ARE EXPECTED TO BE MUCH
COOLER THAN WHAT WE SAW ON SUNDAY...WITH MANY LOWER DESERT LOCATIONS
ACROSS SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA STAYING DOWN IN THE 50S THROUGH MUCH OF
THE DAY. LOWS TONIGHT ARE EXPECTED TO FALL INTO THE 40S AT MOST
LOWER DESERT LOCATIONS...WHICH IS NOW A FEW DEGREES BELOW NORMAL FOR
THIS TIME OF YEAR.

TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...
A MUCH DRIER WEATHER REGIME IS EXPECTED AS NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT
BECOMES ESTABLISHED ACROSS THE REGION...WITH JUST A FEW SHOWERS
POSSIBLE FROM TIME-TO-TIME OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN EAST OF
PHOENIX...AS WEAK SHORTWAVES EMBEDDED IN THIS NW FLOW MOVE ACROSS
EXTREME EASTERN AZ. TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO MAKE A SLOW REBOUND
AS 500MB HEIGHTS RISE...WITH HIGHS RETURNING TO NEAR-NORMAL VALUES
BY THURSDAY.

FRIDAY INTO NEXT WEEKEND...
A WARMING TREND IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THIS PERIOD UNDER
MAINLY CLEAR SKIES AS HIGH PRESSURE STRENGTHENS OVER THE
REGION...WITH A DECENT CHANCE FOR HIGHS IN THE 80S ACROSS THE LOWER
DESERTS BY NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION...
SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA INCLUDING KPHX...KIWA AND KSDL...
A MOIST COLD FRONT APPROACHING FOR MONDAY MORNING. CLOUDS AND
SHOWERS WILL SLOWLY INCREASE AFTER 08Z MON...REACHING A PEAK AROUND
18Z MON. AS A RESULT...BKN CLDS BETWEEN 6-8 THSD AGL THROUGH 15Z
MON...THEN LOWERING TO NEAR 2 THSD BKN IN MODERATE RAIN AT TIMES
BETWEEN 15Z AND 21Z MON. SOUTH WIND 6 TO 8 KNOTS...BECOMING GUSTY
NEAR 20 KNOTS AROUND 17Z WITH SHOWERS.


SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA AND SOUTHWEST ARIZONA INCLUDING KIPL AND KBLH...
A MOIST COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH THE AREA BETWEEN 07Z-12Z MON.  AS
A RESULT...OCCASIONAL MVFR CONDITIONS IN CLOUDS AND RAIN. CIGS NEAR
3 THSD AGL WITH OCCASIONAL MODERATE RAIN THROUGH 11Z...CLOUDS
LIFTING AND RAIN ENDING AFTER 13Z MON.

AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDED TAFS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...
COOL AND STILL RELATIVELY MOIST CONDITIONS WILL BE PRESENT ON
TUESDAY WITH LINGERING RAIN CHANCES ACROSS SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA.
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE AND DRYING CONDITIONS WILL MOVE IN STARTING
WEDNESDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL WARM BACK TOWARD NORMALS BY THURSDAY
AND THEN A FEW DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. WINDS
WILL BE RELATIVELY LIGHT THROUGH THE PERIOD...BUT AFTERNOON
BREEZINESS IS EXPECTED ON WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. MINIMUM
HUMIDITIES WILL DROP INTO THE 20S ON WEDNESDAY AND THEN INTO THE
TEENS EACH AFTERNOON STARTING THURSDAY.

&&

.PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

AZ...FLOOD WATCH FROM 5 PM TODAY THROUGH 5 PM MONDAY AZZ020>021.
     FLOOD WATCH FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT THROUGH 8 PM MONDAY
     AZZ022>024.

CA...FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 12 PM MONDAY CAZ031>033.

&&

$$

VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/PHOENIX

DISCUSSION...PERCHA
AVIATION...VASQUEZ
FIRE WEATHER...KUHLMAN





000
FXUS65 KPSR 020930
AFDPSR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION ...CORRECTION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PHOENIX AZ
230 AM MST MON MAR 2 2015

...POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAIN AFFECTING THE SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH
CENTRAL AZ DESERTS THROUGH LATE TODAY...

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION WILL EXPAND FROM SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA INTO
ARIZONA TODAY...AND WILL SLOWLY SHIFT EASTWARD DURING THE COURSE OF
THE DAY. PERIODS OF MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN ARE
ANTICIPATED...ESPECIALLY OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN AND FOOTHILL
LOCATIONS OF SOUTH CENTRAL ARIZONA. THERE WILL ALSO BE A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS AS WELL...MAINLY DURING THE AFTERNOON AND
EARLY EVENING HOURS. COOLER TEMPERATURES WILL ALSO ACCOMPANY THIS
SYSTEM WITH BELOW NORMAL READINGS EXPECTED FROM TODAY THROUGH MID
WEEK. A RETURN TO ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES IS LIKELY BY LATE WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

TODAY AND TONIGHT...

THE WELL-ADVERTISED UPPER-LEVEL LOW CENTER...THAT HAS BEEN DROPPING
SOUTHWARD ALONG THE WEST COAST OVER THE LAST FEW DAYS...IS FINALLY
BEGINNING TO MOVE OFF TO THE EAST...INTO SOUTHERN CA THIS MORNING AS
THE LONG-AWAITED UPSTREAM KICKER...MOVES SOUTHWARD ACROSS NORTHERN
CA TOWARDS THIS LOW CENTER. THIS SYSTEM...WHICH BROUGHT RAINFALL
AMOUNTS RANGING FROM 0.25 INCH TO JUST OVER 1.00 INCH TO MUCH OF SE
CA YESTERDAY AND LAST NIGHT...WHICH WAS FORECAST WELL BY THE GFS
MODEL OUTPUT...IS EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO WESTERN ARIZONA THIS
MORNING...THEN ACROSS SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING.
NOW THAT THE MAIN UPPER LOW IS FINALLY SHIFTING TO THE EAST...THE
BAROCLINIC LEAF AND ASSOCIATED AREA OF RAINFALL IS ALSO MOVING INTO
EXTREME WESTERN ARIZONA AS OF THIS HOUR...BRINGING LIGHT TO MODERATE
RAINFALL TO PARTS OF YUMA AND LA PAZ COUNTY. THE LATEST GFS AND HRRR
HI-RES MODELS ARE NOW IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE TIMING OF THIS SYSTEM
AS IT CONTINUES TO MOVE EASTWARD ACROSS AZ TODAY...WITH BOTH OF THEM
BRINGING RAINFALL TO THE GREATER PHX AREA AROUND DAYBREAK/DURING THE
MORNING COMMUTE...THEN INTO THE EASTERNMOST PORTION OF OUR CWA
(SOUTHERN GILA COUNTY) BY EARLY AFTERNOON.

ALTHOUGH THIS HAS TURNED INTO A FAIRLY PROGRESSIVE SYSTEM (AFTER A
DELAYED ARRIVAL)...IT STILL LOOKS LIKE A FAIRLY ROBUST SYSTEM...AND
IT IS STILL EXPECTED TO BRING LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN TO SOUTH-CENTRAL
ARIZONA TODAY...ESPECIALLY OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN NORTH AND EAST OF
PHOENIX. THIS IS DUE TO THE FACT THAT A PLUME OF VERY MOIST
AIR...WITH PWATS AROUND ONE INCH IS EXPECTED TO STREAM NORTH OVER
THE REGION TODAY ALONG AND JUST AHEAD OF THE MAIN SURFACE
FRONT/BAROCLINIC ZONE. THIS DEEP MOISTURE...COMBINED WITH GOOD
BAROCLINICITY...STRONG LOW-LEVEL UPSLOPE SOUTHERLY FLOW (850MB WINDS
IN THE 30-40KT RANGE)...AND INFLUENCE FROM THE RIGHT-ENTRANCE REGION
OF THE JET IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE A RATHER SOLID BAND OF
MODERATE-HEAVY RAINFALL DURING ITS PASSAGE ACROSS SOUTH-CENTRAL
ARIZONA. ALSO...EVEN THOUGH THERE IS NOW A WHOLE LOT OF CAPE IN THE
FORECAST SOUNDINGS (A COUPLE HUNDRED JOULES/KG AT MOST)...THERE
APPEARS TO BE ENOUGH LIFT TO TRIGGER A FEW EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS
THIS AFTERNOON AS THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH. THE COMBINATION OF THE
GENERAL RAINFALL...RANGING FROM AROUND 1/2 INCH OVER WESTERN
MARICOPA COUNTY TO AS MUCH AS 2.00 INCHES IN THE MOST FAVORED
LOCATIONS OVER EXTREME NORTH AND NORTHEAST MARICOPA COUNTY...WITH
THESE HEAVIER SHOWERS...WILL LIKELY PRODUCE AT LEAST SOME LOCAL
FLOODING PROBLEMS IN OUR WASHES...HIGHWAY DIPS...AND LOW-LYING
AREAS. THERE COULD ALSO BE SOME RISES IN SOME OF OUR SMALLER CREEKS
AND STREAMS...ESPECIALLY OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN. SNOWFALL...IF
ANY...IS STILL EXPECTED TO BE CONFINED TO OUR HIGHEST PEAKS...WHERE
A DUSTING TO PERHAPS AN INCH COULD FALL BEFORE THE PRECIP ENDS THIS
EVENING. ON THE OTHER HAND...MUCH GREATER SNOWFALL AMOUNTS ARE
EXPECTED FURTHER NORTH AND EAST...FROM THE FLAGSTAFF AREA EAST
ACROSS THE RIM COUNTY INTO THE WHITE MTNS.

IT NOW APPEARS THAT THE RAINFALL SHOULD DIMINISH RATHER RAPIDLY THIS
EVENING FROM WEST TO EAST AS THE MAIN UPPER TROF MOVES OFF TO THE
EAST AND THE LOW-LEVEL SOUTHERLY JET RAPIDLY BREAKS DOWN AND SHIFTS
TO A MUCH LIGHTER WESTERLY FLOW...WITH JUST A FEW LEFT-OVER
SPRINKLES OR LIGHT SHOWERS REMAINING BY LATE TONIGHT...MAINLY OVER
SOUTHERN GILA COUNTY. TEMPERATURES TODAY ARE EXPECTED TO BE MUCH
COOLER THAN WHAT WE SAW ON SUNDAY...WITH MANY LOWER DESERT LOCATIONS
ACROSS SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA STAYING DOWN IN THE 50S THROUGH MUCH OF
THE DAY. LOWS TONIGHT ARE EXPECTED TO FALL INTO THE 40S AT MOST
LOWER DESERT LOCATIONS...WHICH IS NOW A FEW DEGREES BELOW NORMAL FOR
THIS TIME OF YEAR.

TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...
A MUCH DRIER WEATHER REGIME IS EXPECTED AS NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT
BECOMES ESTABLISHED ACROSS THE REGION...WITH JUST A FEW SHOWERS
POSSIBLE FROM TIME-TO-TIME OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN EAST OF
PHOENIX...AS WEAK SHORTWAVES EMBEDDED IN THIS NW FLOW MOVE ACROSS
EXTREME EASTERN AZ. TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO MAKE A SLOW REBOUND
AS 500MB HEIGHTS RISE...WITH HIGHS RETURNING TO NEAR-NORMAL VALUES
BY THURSDAY.

FRIDAY INTO NEXT WEEKEND...
A WARMING TREND IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THIS PERIOD UNDER
MAINLY CLEAR SKIES AS HIGH PRESSURE STRENGTHENS OVER THE
REGION...WITH A DECENT CHANCE FOR HIGHS IN THE 80S ACROSS THE LOWER
DESERTS BY NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION...
SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA INCLUDING KPHX...KIWA AND KSDL...
A MOIST COLD FRONT APPROACHING FOR MONDAY MORNING. CLOUDS AND
SHOWERS WILL SLOWLY INCREASE AFTER 08Z MON...REACHING A PEAK AROUND
18Z MON. AS A RESULT...BKN CLDS BETWEEN 6-8 THSD AGL THROUGH 15Z
MON...THEN LOWERING TO NEAR 2 THSD BKN IN MODERATE RAIN AT TIMES
BETWEEN 15Z AND 21Z MON. SOUTH WIND 6 TO 8 KNOTS...BECOMING GUSTY
NEAR 20 KNOTS AROUND 17Z WITH SHOWERS.


SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA AND SOUTHWEST ARIZONA INCLUDING KIPL AND KBLH...
A MOIST COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH THE AREA BETWEEN 07Z-12Z MON.  AS
A RESULT...OCCASIONAL MVFR CONDITIONS IN CLOUDS AND RAIN. CIGS NEAR
3 THSD AGL WITH OCCASIONAL MODERATE RAIN THROUGH 11Z...CLOUDS
LIFTING AND RAIN ENDING AFTER 13Z MON.

AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDED TAFS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...
COOL AND STILL RELATIVELY MOIST CONDITIONS WILL BE PRESENT ON
TUESDAY WITH LINGERING RAIN CHANCES ACROSS SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA.
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE AND DRYING CONDITIONS WILL MOVE IN STARTING
WEDNESDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL WARM BACK TOWARD NORMALS BY THURSDAY
AND THEN A FEW DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. WINDS
WILL BE RELATIVELY LIGHT THROUGH THE PERIOD...BUT AFTERNOON
BREEZINESS IS EXPECTED ON WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. MINIMUM
HUMIDITIES WILL DROP INTO THE 20S ON WEDNESDAY AND THEN INTO THE
TEENS EACH AFTERNOON STARTING THURSDAY.

&&

.PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

AZ...FLOOD WATCH FROM 5 PM TODAY THROUGH 5 PM MONDAY AZZ020>021.
     FLOOD WATCH FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT THROUGH 8 PM MONDAY
     AZZ022>024.

CA...FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 12 PM MONDAY CAZ031>033.

&&

$$

VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/PHOENIX

DISCUSSION...PERCHA
AVIATION...VASQUEZ
FIRE WEATHER...KUHLMAN






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