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000
FXUS65 KTWC 211637
AFDTWC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ
935 AM MST FRI NOV 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...A WEAK LOW WILL MOVE SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS NORTHERN
SONORA INTO TONIGHT. EXPECT ISOLATED TO SCATTERED VALLEY RAIN AND
MOUNTAIN SNOW SHOWERS MAINLY SOUTH OF TUCSON. LIGHT PRECIPITATION
AMOUNTS WILL BE THE RULE. DRY CONDITIONS WILL THEN PREVAIL THIS
WEEKEND INTO THANKSGIVING DAY. ANOTHER ROUND OF COLD OVERNIGHT LOWS
THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEK WITH A WARMING TREND LATER IN THE WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...MID LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTERED BETWEEN KNYL/
KBLH AT THIS TIME. THIS SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE SEWD...AND
SHOULD BE CENTERED OVER NRN SONORA MEXICO THIS EVENING. ALTHOUGH
UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE IS IMPRESSIVE...A VERY DRY NEAR-SURFACE
ENVIRONMENT WILL CONTINUE ACROSS SE AZ. THUS...WILL MAINTAIN
ISOLATED SHOWERS MAINLY SOUTHWEST OF TUCSON THIS AFTERNOON. HAVE
ALSO MAINTAINED ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS THIS EVENING FROM
TUCSON SWD/SEWD ACROSS SANTA CRUZ/SRN COCHISE COUNTIES.

THERE SHOULD BE ENOUGH INSTABILITY ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM TO
PRODUCE A FEW LIGHTNING STRIKES...AGAIN MAINLY NEAR THE PATH OF THE
COLD POOL ALOFT. THE BEST CHANCE OF MEASURABLE PRECIP WILL ALSO
OCCUR NEAR THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER. LIQUID AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED TO
BE MOSTLY LESS THAN ONE TENTH OF AN INCH. SNOW LEVELS EARLY THIS
EVENING WILL BE AROUND 7000-7500 FEET...WITH PERHAPS AN INCH OF SNOW
ACROSS THE HIGHEST PEAKS. A FEW LINGERING SHOWERS SHOULD OCCUR LATE
TONIGHT ACROSS FAR SERN SECTIONS. DRY CONDITIONS WILL THEN PREVAIL
SAT BEHIND THIS SYSTEM.

TWO SHORTWAVE TROUGHS WILL THEN MOVE SEWD ACROSS THE CENTRAL ROCKIES
SUN-MON. A TIGHT MID-LEVEL GRADIENT SHOULD PRODUCE GUSTY WLY/NWLY
WINDS...MAINLY DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. THE ORIENTATION OF THE
MID-LEVEL GRADIENT FAVORS THE UPPER GILA VALLEY WITH THE STRONGER
WINDS. THEREAFTER...21/12Z GFS WAS SIMILAR WITH PREVIOUS GFS
SOLUTIONS REGARDING THE DEPICTION OF A PROGRESSIVE UPPER TROUGH FROM
NEAR THE WEST COAST TUE TO THE ROCKIES ON THANKSGIVING DAY. THIS
PATTERN WILL MAINTAIN DRY CONDITIONS ACROSS SE AZ.

A GRADUAL COOLING TREND WILL OCCUR TODAY-MON FOLLOWED BY WARMER
DAYTIME TEMPS DURING THE MIDDLE PART OF THE UPCOMING WEEK. ANOTHER
PERIOD OF FREEZING TEMPS AND HARD FREEZES FOR MAINLY ERN LOCALES
APPEARS TO BE INCREASINGLY LIKELY SUN NIGHT THRU TUE NIGHT. THERE
WILL LIKELY BE COLDER TEMPS ACROSS ERN PIMA COUNTY...ALTHOUGH MOST
LIKELY NOT FOR MUCH OF THE TUCSON METRO AREA.

&&

.AVIATION...VALID THRU 22/12Z.
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE FROM SOUTHWESTERN ARIZONA THIS
MORNING SOUTHEASTWARD ADJACENT THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER INTO THIS
EVENING. EXPECT ISOLATED TO SCATTERED -SHRA...AS WELL AS A FEW
-TSRA...MAINLY SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST OF KTUS LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. A FEW REMAINING -SHRA WILL OCCUR IN THE VICINITY OF KDUG
LATE TONIGHT. CLOUD DECKS THIS MORNING MAINLY AROUND 15K FT AGL WILL
LOWER TO AROUND 10K FT AGL THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. DECREASING
CLOUDS WILL THEN OCCUR FROM WEST TO EAST EARLY SATURDAY MORNING.
SURFACE WIND GENERALLY REMAIN LESS THAN 10 KNOTS...THOUGH SOME GUSTS
TO AROUND 20 KTS MAY OCCUR THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. AVIATION
DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR TAF AMENDMENTS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BRING ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS WITH A FEW MOUNTAIN SNOW SHOWERS LATE THIS
AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING...ESPECIALLY NEAR THE INTERNATIONAL
BORDER. CANNOT RULE OUT A RUMBLE OF THUNDER NEAR THE INTERNATIONAL
BORDER AS WELL. A COUPLE OF UPPER DISTURBANCES MOVING NORTHEAST OF
THE AREA WILL BRING GUSTY WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS SUNDAY AND MONDAY
DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. THE UPPER GILA VALLEY MAY SEE WINDS OF
12-18 MPH WITH GUSTS OF 25-30 MPH. DRY WITH COLD OVERNIGHT LOWS THE
FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK FOLLOWED BY A WARMING TREND LATE IN THE WEEK.

&&

.TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...YOUTUBE...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/TUCSON

FRANCIS





000
FXUS65 KTWC 211637
AFDTWC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ
935 AM MST FRI NOV 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...A WEAK LOW WILL MOVE SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS NORTHERN
SONORA INTO TONIGHT. EXPECT ISOLATED TO SCATTERED VALLEY RAIN AND
MOUNTAIN SNOW SHOWERS MAINLY SOUTH OF TUCSON. LIGHT PRECIPITATION
AMOUNTS WILL BE THE RULE. DRY CONDITIONS WILL THEN PREVAIL THIS
WEEKEND INTO THANKSGIVING DAY. ANOTHER ROUND OF COLD OVERNIGHT LOWS
THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEK WITH A WARMING TREND LATER IN THE WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...MID LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTERED BETWEEN KNYL/
KBLH AT THIS TIME. THIS SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE SEWD...AND
SHOULD BE CENTERED OVER NRN SONORA MEXICO THIS EVENING. ALTHOUGH
UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE IS IMPRESSIVE...A VERY DRY NEAR-SURFACE
ENVIRONMENT WILL CONTINUE ACROSS SE AZ. THUS...WILL MAINTAIN
ISOLATED SHOWERS MAINLY SOUTHWEST OF TUCSON THIS AFTERNOON. HAVE
ALSO MAINTAINED ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS THIS EVENING FROM
TUCSON SWD/SEWD ACROSS SANTA CRUZ/SRN COCHISE COUNTIES.

THERE SHOULD BE ENOUGH INSTABILITY ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM TO
PRODUCE A FEW LIGHTNING STRIKES...AGAIN MAINLY NEAR THE PATH OF THE
COLD POOL ALOFT. THE BEST CHANCE OF MEASURABLE PRECIP WILL ALSO
OCCUR NEAR THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER. LIQUID AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED TO
BE MOSTLY LESS THAN ONE TENTH OF AN INCH. SNOW LEVELS EARLY THIS
EVENING WILL BE AROUND 7000-7500 FEET...WITH PERHAPS AN INCH OF SNOW
ACROSS THE HIGHEST PEAKS. A FEW LINGERING SHOWERS SHOULD OCCUR LATE
TONIGHT ACROSS FAR SERN SECTIONS. DRY CONDITIONS WILL THEN PREVAIL
SAT BEHIND THIS SYSTEM.

TWO SHORTWAVE TROUGHS WILL THEN MOVE SEWD ACROSS THE CENTRAL ROCKIES
SUN-MON. A TIGHT MID-LEVEL GRADIENT SHOULD PRODUCE GUSTY WLY/NWLY
WINDS...MAINLY DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. THE ORIENTATION OF THE
MID-LEVEL GRADIENT FAVORS THE UPPER GILA VALLEY WITH THE STRONGER
WINDS. THEREAFTER...21/12Z GFS WAS SIMILAR WITH PREVIOUS GFS
SOLUTIONS REGARDING THE DEPICTION OF A PROGRESSIVE UPPER TROUGH FROM
NEAR THE WEST COAST TUE TO THE ROCKIES ON THANKSGIVING DAY. THIS
PATTERN WILL MAINTAIN DRY CONDITIONS ACROSS SE AZ.

A GRADUAL COOLING TREND WILL OCCUR TODAY-MON FOLLOWED BY WARMER
DAYTIME TEMPS DURING THE MIDDLE PART OF THE UPCOMING WEEK. ANOTHER
PERIOD OF FREEZING TEMPS AND HARD FREEZES FOR MAINLY ERN LOCALES
APPEARS TO BE INCREASINGLY LIKELY SUN NIGHT THRU TUE NIGHT. THERE
WILL LIKELY BE COLDER TEMPS ACROSS ERN PIMA COUNTY...ALTHOUGH MOST
LIKELY NOT FOR MUCH OF THE TUCSON METRO AREA.

&&

.AVIATION...VALID THRU 22/12Z.
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE FROM SOUTHWESTERN ARIZONA THIS
MORNING SOUTHEASTWARD ADJACENT THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER INTO THIS
EVENING. EXPECT ISOLATED TO SCATTERED -SHRA...AS WELL AS A FEW
-TSRA...MAINLY SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST OF KTUS LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. A FEW REMAINING -SHRA WILL OCCUR IN THE VICINITY OF KDUG
LATE TONIGHT. CLOUD DECKS THIS MORNING MAINLY AROUND 15K FT AGL WILL
LOWER TO AROUND 10K FT AGL THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. DECREASING
CLOUDS WILL THEN OCCUR FROM WEST TO EAST EARLY SATURDAY MORNING.
SURFACE WIND GENERALLY REMAIN LESS THAN 10 KNOTS...THOUGH SOME GUSTS
TO AROUND 20 KTS MAY OCCUR THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. AVIATION
DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR TAF AMENDMENTS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BRING ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS WITH A FEW MOUNTAIN SNOW SHOWERS LATE THIS
AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING...ESPECIALLY NEAR THE INTERNATIONAL
BORDER. CANNOT RULE OUT A RUMBLE OF THUNDER NEAR THE INTERNATIONAL
BORDER AS WELL. A COUPLE OF UPPER DISTURBANCES MOVING NORTHEAST OF
THE AREA WILL BRING GUSTY WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS SUNDAY AND MONDAY
DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. THE UPPER GILA VALLEY MAY SEE WINDS OF
12-18 MPH WITH GUSTS OF 25-30 MPH. DRY WITH COLD OVERNIGHT LOWS THE
FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK FOLLOWED BY A WARMING TREND LATE IN THE WEEK.

&&

.TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...YOUTUBE...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/TUCSON

FRANCIS





000
FXUS65 KTWC 211637
AFDTWC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ
935 AM MST FRI NOV 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...A WEAK LOW WILL MOVE SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS NORTHERN
SONORA INTO TONIGHT. EXPECT ISOLATED TO SCATTERED VALLEY RAIN AND
MOUNTAIN SNOW SHOWERS MAINLY SOUTH OF TUCSON. LIGHT PRECIPITATION
AMOUNTS WILL BE THE RULE. DRY CONDITIONS WILL THEN PREVAIL THIS
WEEKEND INTO THANKSGIVING DAY. ANOTHER ROUND OF COLD OVERNIGHT LOWS
THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEK WITH A WARMING TREND LATER IN THE WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...MID LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTERED BETWEEN KNYL/
KBLH AT THIS TIME. THIS SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE SEWD...AND
SHOULD BE CENTERED OVER NRN SONORA MEXICO THIS EVENING. ALTHOUGH
UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE IS IMPRESSIVE...A VERY DRY NEAR-SURFACE
ENVIRONMENT WILL CONTINUE ACROSS SE AZ. THUS...WILL MAINTAIN
ISOLATED SHOWERS MAINLY SOUTHWEST OF TUCSON THIS AFTERNOON. HAVE
ALSO MAINTAINED ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS THIS EVENING FROM
TUCSON SWD/SEWD ACROSS SANTA CRUZ/SRN COCHISE COUNTIES.

THERE SHOULD BE ENOUGH INSTABILITY ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM TO
PRODUCE A FEW LIGHTNING STRIKES...AGAIN MAINLY NEAR THE PATH OF THE
COLD POOL ALOFT. THE BEST CHANCE OF MEASURABLE PRECIP WILL ALSO
OCCUR NEAR THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER. LIQUID AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED TO
BE MOSTLY LESS THAN ONE TENTH OF AN INCH. SNOW LEVELS EARLY THIS
EVENING WILL BE AROUND 7000-7500 FEET...WITH PERHAPS AN INCH OF SNOW
ACROSS THE HIGHEST PEAKS. A FEW LINGERING SHOWERS SHOULD OCCUR LATE
TONIGHT ACROSS FAR SERN SECTIONS. DRY CONDITIONS WILL THEN PREVAIL
SAT BEHIND THIS SYSTEM.

TWO SHORTWAVE TROUGHS WILL THEN MOVE SEWD ACROSS THE CENTRAL ROCKIES
SUN-MON. A TIGHT MID-LEVEL GRADIENT SHOULD PRODUCE GUSTY WLY/NWLY
WINDS...MAINLY DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. THE ORIENTATION OF THE
MID-LEVEL GRADIENT FAVORS THE UPPER GILA VALLEY WITH THE STRONGER
WINDS. THEREAFTER...21/12Z GFS WAS SIMILAR WITH PREVIOUS GFS
SOLUTIONS REGARDING THE DEPICTION OF A PROGRESSIVE UPPER TROUGH FROM
NEAR THE WEST COAST TUE TO THE ROCKIES ON THANKSGIVING DAY. THIS
PATTERN WILL MAINTAIN DRY CONDITIONS ACROSS SE AZ.

A GRADUAL COOLING TREND WILL OCCUR TODAY-MON FOLLOWED BY WARMER
DAYTIME TEMPS DURING THE MIDDLE PART OF THE UPCOMING WEEK. ANOTHER
PERIOD OF FREEZING TEMPS AND HARD FREEZES FOR MAINLY ERN LOCALES
APPEARS TO BE INCREASINGLY LIKELY SUN NIGHT THRU TUE NIGHT. THERE
WILL LIKELY BE COLDER TEMPS ACROSS ERN PIMA COUNTY...ALTHOUGH MOST
LIKELY NOT FOR MUCH OF THE TUCSON METRO AREA.

&&

.AVIATION...VALID THRU 22/12Z.
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE FROM SOUTHWESTERN ARIZONA THIS
MORNING SOUTHEASTWARD ADJACENT THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER INTO THIS
EVENING. EXPECT ISOLATED TO SCATTERED -SHRA...AS WELL AS A FEW
-TSRA...MAINLY SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST OF KTUS LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. A FEW REMAINING -SHRA WILL OCCUR IN THE VICINITY OF KDUG
LATE TONIGHT. CLOUD DECKS THIS MORNING MAINLY AROUND 15K FT AGL WILL
LOWER TO AROUND 10K FT AGL THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. DECREASING
CLOUDS WILL THEN OCCUR FROM WEST TO EAST EARLY SATURDAY MORNING.
SURFACE WIND GENERALLY REMAIN LESS THAN 10 KNOTS...THOUGH SOME GUSTS
TO AROUND 20 KTS MAY OCCUR THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. AVIATION
DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR TAF AMENDMENTS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BRING ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS WITH A FEW MOUNTAIN SNOW SHOWERS LATE THIS
AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING...ESPECIALLY NEAR THE INTERNATIONAL
BORDER. CANNOT RULE OUT A RUMBLE OF THUNDER NEAR THE INTERNATIONAL
BORDER AS WELL. A COUPLE OF UPPER DISTURBANCES MOVING NORTHEAST OF
THE AREA WILL BRING GUSTY WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS SUNDAY AND MONDAY
DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. THE UPPER GILA VALLEY MAY SEE WINDS OF
12-18 MPH WITH GUSTS OF 25-30 MPH. DRY WITH COLD OVERNIGHT LOWS THE
FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK FOLLOWED BY A WARMING TREND LATE IN THE WEEK.

&&

.TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...YOUTUBE...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/TUCSON

FRANCIS





000
FXUS65 KTWC 211637
AFDTWC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ
935 AM MST FRI NOV 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...A WEAK LOW WILL MOVE SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS NORTHERN
SONORA INTO TONIGHT. EXPECT ISOLATED TO SCATTERED VALLEY RAIN AND
MOUNTAIN SNOW SHOWERS MAINLY SOUTH OF TUCSON. LIGHT PRECIPITATION
AMOUNTS WILL BE THE RULE. DRY CONDITIONS WILL THEN PREVAIL THIS
WEEKEND INTO THANKSGIVING DAY. ANOTHER ROUND OF COLD OVERNIGHT LOWS
THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEK WITH A WARMING TREND LATER IN THE WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...MID LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTERED BETWEEN KNYL/
KBLH AT THIS TIME. THIS SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE SEWD...AND
SHOULD BE CENTERED OVER NRN SONORA MEXICO THIS EVENING. ALTHOUGH
UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE IS IMPRESSIVE...A VERY DRY NEAR-SURFACE
ENVIRONMENT WILL CONTINUE ACROSS SE AZ. THUS...WILL MAINTAIN
ISOLATED SHOWERS MAINLY SOUTHWEST OF TUCSON THIS AFTERNOON. HAVE
ALSO MAINTAINED ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS THIS EVENING FROM
TUCSON SWD/SEWD ACROSS SANTA CRUZ/SRN COCHISE COUNTIES.

THERE SHOULD BE ENOUGH INSTABILITY ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM TO
PRODUCE A FEW LIGHTNING STRIKES...AGAIN MAINLY NEAR THE PATH OF THE
COLD POOL ALOFT. THE BEST CHANCE OF MEASURABLE PRECIP WILL ALSO
OCCUR NEAR THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER. LIQUID AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED TO
BE MOSTLY LESS THAN ONE TENTH OF AN INCH. SNOW LEVELS EARLY THIS
EVENING WILL BE AROUND 7000-7500 FEET...WITH PERHAPS AN INCH OF SNOW
ACROSS THE HIGHEST PEAKS. A FEW LINGERING SHOWERS SHOULD OCCUR LATE
TONIGHT ACROSS FAR SERN SECTIONS. DRY CONDITIONS WILL THEN PREVAIL
SAT BEHIND THIS SYSTEM.

TWO SHORTWAVE TROUGHS WILL THEN MOVE SEWD ACROSS THE CENTRAL ROCKIES
SUN-MON. A TIGHT MID-LEVEL GRADIENT SHOULD PRODUCE GUSTY WLY/NWLY
WINDS...MAINLY DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. THE ORIENTATION OF THE
MID-LEVEL GRADIENT FAVORS THE UPPER GILA VALLEY WITH THE STRONGER
WINDS. THEREAFTER...21/12Z GFS WAS SIMILAR WITH PREVIOUS GFS
SOLUTIONS REGARDING THE DEPICTION OF A PROGRESSIVE UPPER TROUGH FROM
NEAR THE WEST COAST TUE TO THE ROCKIES ON THANKSGIVING DAY. THIS
PATTERN WILL MAINTAIN DRY CONDITIONS ACROSS SE AZ.

A GRADUAL COOLING TREND WILL OCCUR TODAY-MON FOLLOWED BY WARMER
DAYTIME TEMPS DURING THE MIDDLE PART OF THE UPCOMING WEEK. ANOTHER
PERIOD OF FREEZING TEMPS AND HARD FREEZES FOR MAINLY ERN LOCALES
APPEARS TO BE INCREASINGLY LIKELY SUN NIGHT THRU TUE NIGHT. THERE
WILL LIKELY BE COLDER TEMPS ACROSS ERN PIMA COUNTY...ALTHOUGH MOST
LIKELY NOT FOR MUCH OF THE TUCSON METRO AREA.

&&

.AVIATION...VALID THRU 22/12Z.
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE FROM SOUTHWESTERN ARIZONA THIS
MORNING SOUTHEASTWARD ADJACENT THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER INTO THIS
EVENING. EXPECT ISOLATED TO SCATTERED -SHRA...AS WELL AS A FEW
-TSRA...MAINLY SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST OF KTUS LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. A FEW REMAINING -SHRA WILL OCCUR IN THE VICINITY OF KDUG
LATE TONIGHT. CLOUD DECKS THIS MORNING MAINLY AROUND 15K FT AGL WILL
LOWER TO AROUND 10K FT AGL THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. DECREASING
CLOUDS WILL THEN OCCUR FROM WEST TO EAST EARLY SATURDAY MORNING.
SURFACE WIND GENERALLY REMAIN LESS THAN 10 KNOTS...THOUGH SOME GUSTS
TO AROUND 20 KTS MAY OCCUR THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. AVIATION
DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR TAF AMENDMENTS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BRING ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS WITH A FEW MOUNTAIN SNOW SHOWERS LATE THIS
AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING...ESPECIALLY NEAR THE INTERNATIONAL
BORDER. CANNOT RULE OUT A RUMBLE OF THUNDER NEAR THE INTERNATIONAL
BORDER AS WELL. A COUPLE OF UPPER DISTURBANCES MOVING NORTHEAST OF
THE AREA WILL BRING GUSTY WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS SUNDAY AND MONDAY
DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. THE UPPER GILA VALLEY MAY SEE WINDS OF
12-18 MPH WITH GUSTS OF 25-30 MPH. DRY WITH COLD OVERNIGHT LOWS THE
FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK FOLLOWED BY A WARMING TREND LATE IN THE WEEK.

&&

.TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...YOUTUBE...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/TUCSON

FRANCIS




  [top]

000
FXUS65 KFGZ 211630
AFDFGZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ
925 AM MST FRI NOV 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...A WEAK PACIFIC LOW WILL MOVE THROUGH SOUTHERN ARIZONA
TODAY. EXPECT CLOUDS ACROSS THE AREA WITH WIDELY SCATTERED LIGHT
RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS. ON SATURDAY NIGHT A STRONG COLD FRONT
WILL MOVE THROUGH NORTHERN ARIZONA. LOOK FOR BREEZY NORTH WINDS AND
COLDER TEMPERATURES SUNDAY AND MONDAY. DRY WEATHER WITH A WARMING
TREND RETURN FOR TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...A WEAK PACIFIC LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WAS CENTERED OVER
YUMA AT 8AM. AREA RADAR SHOW VERY LIGHT SHOWERS MOVING INTO SW
YAVAPAI COUNTY AND A FEW LIGHTNING STRIKES WITH THE LOW CENTER WEST
OF YUMA. PROGS SHOW THE LOW CENTER TO HEAD TO THE EAST SOUTHEAST
THROUGH THE DAY. THE SENSIBLE WEATHER FOR NORTHERN ARIZONA TODAY
FEATURES WIDESPREAD CLOUD COVER. WIDELY SCATTERED LIGHT RAIN AND
SNOW SHOWERS ARE EXPECT WEST OF A LINE FREDONIA TO FLAGSTAFF TO SHOW
LOW WITH SLIGHT CHANCES ELSEWHERE. SNOW LEVELS WILL FALL TO 6500 TO
7000 FOOT ELEVATION THIS AFTERNOON. THE ENTIRE SYSTEM IS MOVING
SOUTH OF SOUTHERN ARIZONA THIS EVENING. SKIES SHOULD CLEAR FROM
NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST HERE.

SATURDAY EXPECT FAIR AND BREEZY WEATHER WITH OCCASIONAL MID AND HIGH
LEVEL CLOUDS.

SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...ANOTHER COLD FRONT IS PROGGED TO
MOVE INTO NORTHERN ARIZONA FROM THE NORTH SATURDAY NIGHT. CROSS
SECTION HAVE ONLY SHALLOW MOISTURE WITH THE FRONT AND THE SLIGHT
CHANCE OF SHOWERS IN THE FOUR CORNERS AREA LOOKS GOOD. WE WILL LILY
BE LOWERING SUNDAYS MAX TEMPS A 2-5 DEGREES WITH THE GREATEST
COOLING IN THE FOUR CORNERS. BRISK NORTHWEST THROUGH NORTHEAST WINDS
AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT ARE EXPECTED SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY.

TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE BUILDING ALONG THE
WEST COAST WILL KEEP NORTHERN ARIZONA DRY WITH NEAR NORMAL MAX TEMPS
AND MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES.

&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 18Z PACKAGE...EXTENSIVE MID LEVEL CLOUDS WILL
OVERSPREAD NORTHERN AZ TODAY IN RESPONSE TO A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
PASSING THROUGH SOUTHERN AZ. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHRA/SHSN ARE
EXPECTED THROUGH THE AFTERNOON PRIMARILY FROM A KGCN-KFLG-KSOW LINE
WESTWARD WITH SNOW LEVELS RANGING FROM 6500-7000 FT MSL. CIGS SHOULD
REMAIN VFR...THOUGH LOCAL MVFR CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE NEAR SHOWER
ACTIVITY. SHOWERS WILL DIMINISH AROUND SUNSET THIS EVENING WITH
CLEARING SKIES THEREAFTER. AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR
AMENDMENTS.

&&

.FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC.........DL
AVIATION.......MCS

FOR NORTHERN ARIZONA WEATHER INFORMATION VISIT
WEATHER.GOV/FLAGSTAFF












000
FXUS65 KFGZ 211630
AFDFGZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ
925 AM MST FRI NOV 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...A WEAK PACIFIC LOW WILL MOVE THROUGH SOUTHERN ARIZONA
TODAY. EXPECT CLOUDS ACROSS THE AREA WITH WIDELY SCATTERED LIGHT
RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS. ON SATURDAY NIGHT A STRONG COLD FRONT
WILL MOVE THROUGH NORTHERN ARIZONA. LOOK FOR BREEZY NORTH WINDS AND
COLDER TEMPERATURES SUNDAY AND MONDAY. DRY WEATHER WITH A WARMING
TREND RETURN FOR TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...A WEAK PACIFIC LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WAS CENTERED OVER
YUMA AT 8AM. AREA RADAR SHOW VERY LIGHT SHOWERS MOVING INTO SW
YAVAPAI COUNTY AND A FEW LIGHTNING STRIKES WITH THE LOW CENTER WEST
OF YUMA. PROGS SHOW THE LOW CENTER TO HEAD TO THE EAST SOUTHEAST
THROUGH THE DAY. THE SENSIBLE WEATHER FOR NORTHERN ARIZONA TODAY
FEATURES WIDESPREAD CLOUD COVER. WIDELY SCATTERED LIGHT RAIN AND
SNOW SHOWERS ARE EXPECT WEST OF A LINE FREDONIA TO FLAGSTAFF TO SHOW
LOW WITH SLIGHT CHANCES ELSEWHERE. SNOW LEVELS WILL FALL TO 6500 TO
7000 FOOT ELEVATION THIS AFTERNOON. THE ENTIRE SYSTEM IS MOVING
SOUTH OF SOUTHERN ARIZONA THIS EVENING. SKIES SHOULD CLEAR FROM
NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST HERE.

SATURDAY EXPECT FAIR AND BREEZY WEATHER WITH OCCASIONAL MID AND HIGH
LEVEL CLOUDS.

SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...ANOTHER COLD FRONT IS PROGGED TO
MOVE INTO NORTHERN ARIZONA FROM THE NORTH SATURDAY NIGHT. CROSS
SECTION HAVE ONLY SHALLOW MOISTURE WITH THE FRONT AND THE SLIGHT
CHANCE OF SHOWERS IN THE FOUR CORNERS AREA LOOKS GOOD. WE WILL LILY
BE LOWERING SUNDAYS MAX TEMPS A 2-5 DEGREES WITH THE GREATEST
COOLING IN THE FOUR CORNERS. BRISK NORTHWEST THROUGH NORTHEAST WINDS
AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT ARE EXPECTED SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY.

TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE BUILDING ALONG THE
WEST COAST WILL KEEP NORTHERN ARIZONA DRY WITH NEAR NORMAL MAX TEMPS
AND MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES.

&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 18Z PACKAGE...EXTENSIVE MID LEVEL CLOUDS WILL
OVERSPREAD NORTHERN AZ TODAY IN RESPONSE TO A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
PASSING THROUGH SOUTHERN AZ. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHRA/SHSN ARE
EXPECTED THROUGH THE AFTERNOON PRIMARILY FROM A KGCN-KFLG-KSOW LINE
WESTWARD WITH SNOW LEVELS RANGING FROM 6500-7000 FT MSL. CIGS SHOULD
REMAIN VFR...THOUGH LOCAL MVFR CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE NEAR SHOWER
ACTIVITY. SHOWERS WILL DIMINISH AROUND SUNSET THIS EVENING WITH
CLEARING SKIES THEREAFTER. AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR
AMENDMENTS.

&&

.FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC.........DL
AVIATION.......MCS

FOR NORTHERN ARIZONA WEATHER INFORMATION VISIT
WEATHER.GOV/FLAGSTAFF










  [top]

000
FXUS65 KPSR 211505
AFDPSR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PHOENIX AZ
805 AM MST FRI NOV 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A PACIFIC WEATHER SYSTEM WILL MOVE QUICKLY EAST ACROSS ARIZONA
TODAY...BRINGING MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES...SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES
AND A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS. MOSTLY CLEAR AND DRY CONDITIONS WITH
NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL RETURN OVER THE WEEKEND...THEN LINGER
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. HIGHER PRESSURE ALOFT WILL BUILD INTO THE
DESERT SOUTHWEST BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK ALLOWING FOR HIGH
TEMPERATURES TO CLIMB A FEW DEGREES ABOVE SEASONAL NORMALS.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
QUICK UPDATES WERE MADE TO FORECASTS TO INCLUDE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS A LARGE SWATH FROM SOUTHEAST CA TO
SOUTH CENTRAL AZ...INCLUDING PHOENIX. ONE LOOK AT THE UPPER AIR DATA
SORT OF GAVE US THE HEEBEE JEEBEES. THE APPROACHING SMALL...BUT
DYNAMICALLY STRONG TROF...WITH LIMITED MOISTURE...HAS THE POTENTIAL
TO PRODUCE AT LEAST A SLIGHT CHANCE OF HIGH BASED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. RAPIDLY COOLING MID LEVEL TEMPERATURES TODAY...
STRONG H5/H3 HEIGHT FALLS DIRECTED AT GILA BEND...AND STRONG
DIFLUENCE ALOFT WILL TRY TO SQUEEZE THE ATMOSPHERE DRY SO TO SPEAK.
EARLIER THIS MORNING THERE WERE A NUMBER OF LIGHTNING STRIKES IN
SOUTHEAST CA...AND IT WAS RAINING LIGHTLY IN YUMA AT 7 AM.  STRONG
HEIGHT RISES ALONG THE WEST COAST SUGGEST THIS IS A FAST MOVING
SYSTEM...AND PRECIP PROBABILITIES SHOULD DIMINISH RAPIDLY LATER THIS
AFTERNOON...CLEARING OVERNIGHT.

OTHERWISE...REMAINDER OF FORECASTS FOR THE WEEKEND LOOK OK.


.PARTS OF PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...530 AM MST...
AS THE UPPER LOW QUICKLY EXITS TO THE EAST/SOUTHEAST TONIGHT...SERN
CA AND AZ WILL COME UNDER A COOL...DRY AND SUBSIDENT NWLY FLOW
ALOFT. SOME HIGH CLOUDS WILL SPREAD IN FROM THE NORTHWEST SATURDAY
FOR PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES...AND HIGH TEMPS WILL STAY NEAR
SEASONAL NORMAL LEVELS WITH A HIGH OF 72 FORECAST FOR PHOENIX.

FOR SUNDAY INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK...GUIDANCE AGREES THAT A DRY
NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL BE THE RULE EACH DAY...AS HIGH PRESSURE
GRADUALLY BUILDS INTO THE AREA FOR MOSTLY SUNNY DAYS AND MOSTLY
CLEAR NIGHTS. SOME SHORTWAVE ENERGY PASSING THROUGH THE FOUR CORNERS
AREA SUNDAY WILL BRING ANOTHER SHOT OF COOLER AIR TO THE REGION...
ALLOWING TEMPS MONDAY TO FALL BACK SLIGHTLY...MAINLY OVER SOUTH
CENTRAL AZ. HIGHS WILL DROP BACK INTO THE UPPER 60S OVER THE LOWER
CENTRAL DESERTS MONDAY WITH PHOENIX TO SEE A HIGH AROUND 69. AFTER
THAT...A SLOW WARMING TREND IS EXPECTED WITH HIGHS RISING INTO THE
MID 70S BY WEDNESDAY OVER THE WARMER LOWER DESERTS UNDER MOSTLY
SUNNY SKIES.

&&

.AVIATION...
SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA INCLUDING KPHX...KIWA...AND KSDL...
CLOUD BASES WILL CONTINUE TO LOWER THROUGH LATE MORNING DOWN TO
ABOUT 12 KFT MSL BEFORE CLEARING FROM WEST TO EAST AFTER 23Z.
ANTICIPATE AREAS OF VIRGA WITH PRECIP REACHING THE GROUND ONLY OVER
THE HIGHER TERRAIN. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT FAVORING EAST BEFORE
FAVORING NORTHWEST BY LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING.

SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA AND SOUTHWEST ARIZONA...INCLUDING KIPL AND
KBLH...
SCT-BKN CLOUD BASES AT 12 KFT MSL CAN BE EXPECTED THIS MORNING ALONG
WITH SOME FEW-SCT 6-8 KFT MSL BEFORE CLEARING BY MID AFTERNOON.
CANNOT RULE OUT A STRAY THUNDERSTORM BUT TOO ISOLATED TO REFLECT IN
THE TAFS. OTHERWISE JUST SOME VIRGA. EXPECT NORTHWEST AND NORTH WIND
DIRECTIONS WITH OCCASIONAL LOCAL GUSTS OF 15-20 KTS.

AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDED TAFS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
...DRY AND WINDY SUNDAY SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA AND SOUTHWEST
ARIZONA...
SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...
STRONG NORTHERLY WINDS WILL DEVELOP OVER PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST
CALIFORNIA AND SOUTHWEST ARIZONA SUNDAY AS A DRY FRONT PUSHES
THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA. MUCH DRIER AIR WILL MOVE IN AS WELL.
CONDITIONS WILL FLIRT WITH CRITICAL THRESHOLDS SUNDAY
AFTERNOON...MAINLY NEAR THE LOWER COLORADO RIVER VALLEY. WINDS WILL
STAY ELEVATED OVERNIGHT AT RIDGETOPS BUT WILL WEAKEN ON THE VALLEY
FLOORS. EXPECT LIGHTER WINDS MONDAY WITH SOME MINOR BREEZINESS
RESUMING OVER AND NEAR THE LOWER COLORADO RIVER VALLEY. LIGHT WINDS
WILL PREVAIL TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY. EXPECT NEAR TO SOMEWHAT BELOW
NORMAL TEMPERATURES THROUGH TUESDAY BEFORE WARMING AT LEST A FEW
DEGREES WEDNESDAY WITH LITTLE CHANGE THURSDAY. HUMIDITIES WILL
REMAIN LOW WITH SOME IMPROVEMENT POSSIBLE THURSDAY.

&&

.PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

AZ...NONE.

CA...NONE.

&&

$$

VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/PHOENIX

DISCUSSION...VASQUEZ/CB
AVIATION...AJ
FIRE WEATHER...AJ






000
FXUS65 KPSR 211505
AFDPSR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PHOENIX AZ
805 AM MST FRI NOV 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A PACIFIC WEATHER SYSTEM WILL MOVE QUICKLY EAST ACROSS ARIZONA
TODAY...BRINGING MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES...SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES
AND A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS. MOSTLY CLEAR AND DRY CONDITIONS WITH
NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL RETURN OVER THE WEEKEND...THEN LINGER
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. HIGHER PRESSURE ALOFT WILL BUILD INTO THE
DESERT SOUTHWEST BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK ALLOWING FOR HIGH
TEMPERATURES TO CLIMB A FEW DEGREES ABOVE SEASONAL NORMALS.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
QUICK UPDATES WERE MADE TO FORECASTS TO INCLUDE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS A LARGE SWATH FROM SOUTHEAST CA TO
SOUTH CENTRAL AZ...INCLUDING PHOENIX. ONE LOOK AT THE UPPER AIR DATA
SORT OF GAVE US THE HEEBEE JEEBEES. THE APPROACHING SMALL...BUT
DYNAMICALLY STRONG TROF...WITH LIMITED MOISTURE...HAS THE POTENTIAL
TO PRODUCE AT LEAST A SLIGHT CHANCE OF HIGH BASED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. RAPIDLY COOLING MID LEVEL TEMPERATURES TODAY...
STRONG H5/H3 HEIGHT FALLS DIRECTED AT GILA BEND...AND STRONG
DIFLUENCE ALOFT WILL TRY TO SQUEEZE THE ATMOSPHERE DRY SO TO SPEAK.
EARLIER THIS MORNING THERE WERE A NUMBER OF LIGHTNING STRIKES IN
SOUTHEAST CA...AND IT WAS RAINING LIGHTLY IN YUMA AT 7 AM.  STRONG
HEIGHT RISES ALONG THE WEST COAST SUGGEST THIS IS A FAST MOVING
SYSTEM...AND PRECIP PROBABILITIES SHOULD DIMINISH RAPIDLY LATER THIS
AFTERNOON...CLEARING OVERNIGHT.

OTHERWISE...REMAINDER OF FORECASTS FOR THE WEEKEND LOOK OK.


.PARTS OF PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...530 AM MST...
AS THE UPPER LOW QUICKLY EXITS TO THE EAST/SOUTHEAST TONIGHT...SERN
CA AND AZ WILL COME UNDER A COOL...DRY AND SUBSIDENT NWLY FLOW
ALOFT. SOME HIGH CLOUDS WILL SPREAD IN FROM THE NORTHWEST SATURDAY
FOR PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES...AND HIGH TEMPS WILL STAY NEAR
SEASONAL NORMAL LEVELS WITH A HIGH OF 72 FORECAST FOR PHOENIX.

FOR SUNDAY INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK...GUIDANCE AGREES THAT A DRY
NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL BE THE RULE EACH DAY...AS HIGH PRESSURE
GRADUALLY BUILDS INTO THE AREA FOR MOSTLY SUNNY DAYS AND MOSTLY
CLEAR NIGHTS. SOME SHORTWAVE ENERGY PASSING THROUGH THE FOUR CORNERS
AREA SUNDAY WILL BRING ANOTHER SHOT OF COOLER AIR TO THE REGION...
ALLOWING TEMPS MONDAY TO FALL BACK SLIGHTLY...MAINLY OVER SOUTH
CENTRAL AZ. HIGHS WILL DROP BACK INTO THE UPPER 60S OVER THE LOWER
CENTRAL DESERTS MONDAY WITH PHOENIX TO SEE A HIGH AROUND 69. AFTER
THAT...A SLOW WARMING TREND IS EXPECTED WITH HIGHS RISING INTO THE
MID 70S BY WEDNESDAY OVER THE WARMER LOWER DESERTS UNDER MOSTLY
SUNNY SKIES.

&&

.AVIATION...
SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA INCLUDING KPHX...KIWA...AND KSDL...
CLOUD BASES WILL CONTINUE TO LOWER THROUGH LATE MORNING DOWN TO
ABOUT 12 KFT MSL BEFORE CLEARING FROM WEST TO EAST AFTER 23Z.
ANTICIPATE AREAS OF VIRGA WITH PRECIP REACHING THE GROUND ONLY OVER
THE HIGHER TERRAIN. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT FAVORING EAST BEFORE
FAVORING NORTHWEST BY LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING.

SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA AND SOUTHWEST ARIZONA...INCLUDING KIPL AND
KBLH...
SCT-BKN CLOUD BASES AT 12 KFT MSL CAN BE EXPECTED THIS MORNING ALONG
WITH SOME FEW-SCT 6-8 KFT MSL BEFORE CLEARING BY MID AFTERNOON.
CANNOT RULE OUT A STRAY THUNDERSTORM BUT TOO ISOLATED TO REFLECT IN
THE TAFS. OTHERWISE JUST SOME VIRGA. EXPECT NORTHWEST AND NORTH WIND
DIRECTIONS WITH OCCASIONAL LOCAL GUSTS OF 15-20 KTS.

AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDED TAFS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
...DRY AND WINDY SUNDAY SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA AND SOUTHWEST
ARIZONA...
SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...
STRONG NORTHERLY WINDS WILL DEVELOP OVER PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST
CALIFORNIA AND SOUTHWEST ARIZONA SUNDAY AS A DRY FRONT PUSHES
THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA. MUCH DRIER AIR WILL MOVE IN AS WELL.
CONDITIONS WILL FLIRT WITH CRITICAL THRESHOLDS SUNDAY
AFTERNOON...MAINLY NEAR THE LOWER COLORADO RIVER VALLEY. WINDS WILL
STAY ELEVATED OVERNIGHT AT RIDGETOPS BUT WILL WEAKEN ON THE VALLEY
FLOORS. EXPECT LIGHTER WINDS MONDAY WITH SOME MINOR BREEZINESS
RESUMING OVER AND NEAR THE LOWER COLORADO RIVER VALLEY. LIGHT WINDS
WILL PREVAIL TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY. EXPECT NEAR TO SOMEWHAT BELOW
NORMAL TEMPERATURES THROUGH TUESDAY BEFORE WARMING AT LEST A FEW
DEGREES WEDNESDAY WITH LITTLE CHANGE THURSDAY. HUMIDITIES WILL
REMAIN LOW WITH SOME IMPROVEMENT POSSIBLE THURSDAY.

&&

.PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

AZ...NONE.

CA...NONE.

&&

$$

VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/PHOENIX

DISCUSSION...VASQUEZ/CB
AVIATION...AJ
FIRE WEATHER...AJ







000
FXUS65 KPSR 211230 AAA
AFDPSR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PHOENIX AZ
530 AM MST FRI NOV 21 2014

.UPDATE...
UPDATED AVIATION AND FIRE WEATHER SECTIONS.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
A DRY PACIFIC WEATHER SYSTEM WILL MOVE QUICKLY EAST ACROSS ARIZONA
TODAY...BRINGING MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES AND SLIGHTLY COOLER
TEMPERATURES ALONG WITH LITTLE RAINFALL EXCEPT FOR A SLIGHT CHANCE
OF SHOWERS OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN EAST OF PHOENIX. MOSTLY CLEAR AND
DRY CONDITIONS WITH NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL RETURN OVER THE
WEEKEND AND THEN LINGER INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. HIGHER PRESSURE ALOFT
WILL BUILD INTO THE DESERT SOUTHWEST BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK
ALLOWING FOR HIGH TEMPERATURES TO CLIMB A FEW DEGREES ABOVE SEASONAL
NORMALS.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
UPPER LEVEL PACIFIC LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM CONTINUED TO DIVE
SOUTHEASTWARD ALONG THE SRN CA COAST...AND INTO THE DESERT SOUTHWEST
EARLY THIS MORNING...WITH THE MAIN UPPER LOW CENTER MOVING ALONG THE
FAR SERN CA COAST. THE MOVEMENT OF THIS SYSTEM WAS CLEARLY EVIDENT
ON IR/VAPOR IMAGERY...AND THE SYSTEM WAS SPREADING CONSIDERABLE
MID/HI CLOUDS INTO SERN CA AND ARIZONA WITH MOST CLOUD BASES AOA 10K
FEET. LATEST SAN DIEGO SOUNDING SHOWED A DRY PROFILE WITH A MEAGER
MARINE LAYER PRESENT BELOW THE 850MB LEVEL. OVERALL THIS WILL BE A
DRY SYSTEM FOR ARIZONA...BRINGING LITTLE IN TERMS OF PRECIP AS MOST
OF THE MOISTURE WILL BE CONFINED TO THE MID LEVELS...WELL ABOVE THE
850MB LEVEL. ALSO...THE SYSTEM HAS A RATHER DRY OVERLAND TRAJECTORY
AND WILL BE QUITE PROGRESSIVE GIVING IT LITTLE TIME TO ENTRAIN
MOISTURE FROM THE PACIFIC BEFORE MAKING ITS INLAND TREK. MODELS
REMAIN IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE TIMING AND TRACK OF THE
LOW...AND IF ANYTHING THE LATEST RUNS BRING THE MAIN LOW CENTER AND
BEST DYNAMICS SLIGHTLY FURTHER TO THE SOUTH...WITH THE LOW CENTER
FORECAST TO SLIDE ALONG THE SRN AZ BORDER BEFORE DROPPING INTO NWRN
MEXICO LATER THIS AFTERNOON. GIVEN THE LIMITED AMOUNT OF MOISTURE
ALREADY IN PLACE FOR THE SYSTEM TO WORK WITH...ITS DRY TRAJECTORY
AND THE FACT THAT MOST OF THE DYNAMICS/PVA AND HEIGHT FALLS STAY
ACROSS FAR SRN AZ...POPS WILL REMAIN IN THE SINGLE DIGITS OVER THE
LOWER DESERTS TODAY AND WILL ONLY BE IN THE SLIGHT CHANCE CATEGORY
OVER ZONE 24...THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF SRN GILA COUNTY. AGAIN....THIS
SYSTEM WILL BRING CONSIDERABLE MID/HIGH CLOUDS...A BIT OF COOLING
AND LITTLE IF ANY PRECIP TODAY INTO THE EARLY EVENING.

AS THE UPPER LOW QUICKLY EXITS TO THE EAST/SOUTHEAST TONIGHT...SERN
CA AND AZ WILL COME UNDER A COOL...DRY AND SUBSIDENT NWLY FLOW
ALOFT. SOME HIGH CLOUDS WILL SPREAD IN FROM THE NORTHWEST SATURDAY
FOR PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES...AND HIGH TEMPS WILL STAY NEAR
SEASONAL NORMAL LEVELS WITH A HIGH OF 72 FORECAST FOR PHOENIX.

FOR SUNDAY INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK...GUIDANCE AGREES THAT A DRY
NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL BE THE RULE EACH DAY...AS HIGH PRESSURE
GRADUALLY BUILDS INTO THE AREA FOR MOSTLY SUNNY DAYS AND MOSTLY
CLEAR NIGHTS. SOME SHORTWAVE ENERGY PASSING THROUGH THE FOUR CORNERS
AREA SUNDAY WILL BRING ANOTHER SHOT OF COOLER AIR TO THE REGION...
ALLOWING TEMPS MONDAY TO FALL BACK SLIGHTLY...MAINLY OVER SOUTH
CENTRAL AZ. HIGHS WILL DROP BACK INTO THE UPPER 60S OVER THE LOWER
CENTRAL DESERTS MONDAY WITH PHOENIX TO SEE A HIGH AROUND 69. AFTER
THAT...A SLOW WARMING TREND IS EXPECTED WITH HIGHS RISING INTO THE
MID 70S BY WEDNESDAY OVER THE WARMER LOWER DESERTS UNDER MOSTLY
SUNNY SKIES.

&&

.AVIATION...
SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA INCLUDING KPHX...KIWA...AND KSDL...
CLOUD BASES WILL CONTINUE TO LOWER THROUGH LATE MORNING DOWN TO
ABOUT 12 KFT MSL BEFORE CLEARING FROM WEST TO EAST AFTER 23Z.
ANTICIPATE AREAS OF VIRGA WITH PRECIP REACHING THE GROUND ONLY OVER
THE HIGHER TERRAIN. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT FAVORING EAST BEFORE
FAVORING NORTHWEST BY LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING.

SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA AND SOUTHWEST ARIZONA...INCLUDING KIPL AND
KBLH...
SCT-BKN CLOUD BASES AT 12 KFT MSL CAN BE EXPECTED THIS MORNING ALONG
WITH SOME FEW-SCT 6-8 KFT MSL BEFORE CLEARING BY MID AFTERNOON.
CANNOT RULE OUT A STRAY THUNDERSTORM BUT TOO ISOLATED TO REFLECT IN
THE TAFS. OTHERWISE JUST SOME VIRGA. EXPECT NORTHWEST AND NORTH WIND
DIRECTIONS WITH OCCASIONAL LOCAL GUSTS OF 15-20 KTS.

AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDED TAFS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
...DRY AND WINDY SUNDAY SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA AND SOUTHWEST ARIZONA...
SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...
STRONG NORTHERLY WINDS WILL DEVELOP OVER PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST
CALIFORNIA AND SOUTHWEST ARIZONA SUNDAY AS A DRY FRONT PUSHES
THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA. MUCH DRIER AIR WILL MOVE IN AS WELL.
CONDITIONS WILL FLIRT WITH CRITICAL THRESHOLDS SUNDAY
AFTERNOON...MAINLY NEAR THE LOWER COLORADO RIVER VALLEY. WINDS WILL
STAY ELEVATED OVERNIGHT AT RIDGETOPS BUT WILL WEAKEN ON THE VALLEY
FLOORS. EXPECT LIGHTER WINDS MONDAY WITH SOME MINOR BREEZINESS
RESUMING OVER AND NEAR THE LOWER COLORADO RIVER VALLEY. LIGHT WINDS
WILL PREVAIL TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY. EXPECT NEAR TO SOMEWHAT BELOW
NORMAL TEMPERATURES THROUGH TUESDAY BEFORE WARMING AT LEST A FEW
DEGREES WEDNESDAY WITH LITTLE CHANGE THURSDAY. HUMIDITIES WILL
REMAIN LOW WITH SOME IMPROVEMENT POSSIBLE THURSDAY.

&&

.PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

AZ...NONE.

CA...NONE.

&&

$$

VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/PHOENIX

DISCUSSION...CB
AVIATION...AJ
FIRE WEATHER...AJ





000
FXUS65 KPSR 211230 AAA
AFDPSR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PHOENIX AZ
530 AM MST FRI NOV 21 2014

.UPDATE...
UPDATED AVIATION AND FIRE WEATHER SECTIONS.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
A DRY PACIFIC WEATHER SYSTEM WILL MOVE QUICKLY EAST ACROSS ARIZONA
TODAY...BRINGING MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES AND SLIGHTLY COOLER
TEMPERATURES ALONG WITH LITTLE RAINFALL EXCEPT FOR A SLIGHT CHANCE
OF SHOWERS OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN EAST OF PHOENIX. MOSTLY CLEAR AND
DRY CONDITIONS WITH NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL RETURN OVER THE
WEEKEND AND THEN LINGER INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. HIGHER PRESSURE ALOFT
WILL BUILD INTO THE DESERT SOUTHWEST BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK
ALLOWING FOR HIGH TEMPERATURES TO CLIMB A FEW DEGREES ABOVE SEASONAL
NORMALS.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
UPPER LEVEL PACIFIC LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM CONTINUED TO DIVE
SOUTHEASTWARD ALONG THE SRN CA COAST...AND INTO THE DESERT SOUTHWEST
EARLY THIS MORNING...WITH THE MAIN UPPER LOW CENTER MOVING ALONG THE
FAR SERN CA COAST. THE MOVEMENT OF THIS SYSTEM WAS CLEARLY EVIDENT
ON IR/VAPOR IMAGERY...AND THE SYSTEM WAS SPREADING CONSIDERABLE
MID/HI CLOUDS INTO SERN CA AND ARIZONA WITH MOST CLOUD BASES AOA 10K
FEET. LATEST SAN DIEGO SOUNDING SHOWED A DRY PROFILE WITH A MEAGER
MARINE LAYER PRESENT BELOW THE 850MB LEVEL. OVERALL THIS WILL BE A
DRY SYSTEM FOR ARIZONA...BRINGING LITTLE IN TERMS OF PRECIP AS MOST
OF THE MOISTURE WILL BE CONFINED TO THE MID LEVELS...WELL ABOVE THE
850MB LEVEL. ALSO...THE SYSTEM HAS A RATHER DRY OVERLAND TRAJECTORY
AND WILL BE QUITE PROGRESSIVE GIVING IT LITTLE TIME TO ENTRAIN
MOISTURE FROM THE PACIFIC BEFORE MAKING ITS INLAND TREK. MODELS
REMAIN IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE TIMING AND TRACK OF THE
LOW...AND IF ANYTHING THE LATEST RUNS BRING THE MAIN LOW CENTER AND
BEST DYNAMICS SLIGHTLY FURTHER TO THE SOUTH...WITH THE LOW CENTER
FORECAST TO SLIDE ALONG THE SRN AZ BORDER BEFORE DROPPING INTO NWRN
MEXICO LATER THIS AFTERNOON. GIVEN THE LIMITED AMOUNT OF MOISTURE
ALREADY IN PLACE FOR THE SYSTEM TO WORK WITH...ITS DRY TRAJECTORY
AND THE FACT THAT MOST OF THE DYNAMICS/PVA AND HEIGHT FALLS STAY
ACROSS FAR SRN AZ...POPS WILL REMAIN IN THE SINGLE DIGITS OVER THE
LOWER DESERTS TODAY AND WILL ONLY BE IN THE SLIGHT CHANCE CATEGORY
OVER ZONE 24...THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF SRN GILA COUNTY. AGAIN....THIS
SYSTEM WILL BRING CONSIDERABLE MID/HIGH CLOUDS...A BIT OF COOLING
AND LITTLE IF ANY PRECIP TODAY INTO THE EARLY EVENING.

AS THE UPPER LOW QUICKLY EXITS TO THE EAST/SOUTHEAST TONIGHT...SERN
CA AND AZ WILL COME UNDER A COOL...DRY AND SUBSIDENT NWLY FLOW
ALOFT. SOME HIGH CLOUDS WILL SPREAD IN FROM THE NORTHWEST SATURDAY
FOR PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES...AND HIGH TEMPS WILL STAY NEAR
SEASONAL NORMAL LEVELS WITH A HIGH OF 72 FORECAST FOR PHOENIX.

FOR SUNDAY INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK...GUIDANCE AGREES THAT A DRY
NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL BE THE RULE EACH DAY...AS HIGH PRESSURE
GRADUALLY BUILDS INTO THE AREA FOR MOSTLY SUNNY DAYS AND MOSTLY
CLEAR NIGHTS. SOME SHORTWAVE ENERGY PASSING THROUGH THE FOUR CORNERS
AREA SUNDAY WILL BRING ANOTHER SHOT OF COOLER AIR TO THE REGION...
ALLOWING TEMPS MONDAY TO FALL BACK SLIGHTLY...MAINLY OVER SOUTH
CENTRAL AZ. HIGHS WILL DROP BACK INTO THE UPPER 60S OVER THE LOWER
CENTRAL DESERTS MONDAY WITH PHOENIX TO SEE A HIGH AROUND 69. AFTER
THAT...A SLOW WARMING TREND IS EXPECTED WITH HIGHS RISING INTO THE
MID 70S BY WEDNESDAY OVER THE WARMER LOWER DESERTS UNDER MOSTLY
SUNNY SKIES.

&&

.AVIATION...
SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA INCLUDING KPHX...KIWA...AND KSDL...
CLOUD BASES WILL CONTINUE TO LOWER THROUGH LATE MORNING DOWN TO
ABOUT 12 KFT MSL BEFORE CLEARING FROM WEST TO EAST AFTER 23Z.
ANTICIPATE AREAS OF VIRGA WITH PRECIP REACHING THE GROUND ONLY OVER
THE HIGHER TERRAIN. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT FAVORING EAST BEFORE
FAVORING NORTHWEST BY LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING.

SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA AND SOUTHWEST ARIZONA...INCLUDING KIPL AND
KBLH...
SCT-BKN CLOUD BASES AT 12 KFT MSL CAN BE EXPECTED THIS MORNING ALONG
WITH SOME FEW-SCT 6-8 KFT MSL BEFORE CLEARING BY MID AFTERNOON.
CANNOT RULE OUT A STRAY THUNDERSTORM BUT TOO ISOLATED TO REFLECT IN
THE TAFS. OTHERWISE JUST SOME VIRGA. EXPECT NORTHWEST AND NORTH WIND
DIRECTIONS WITH OCCASIONAL LOCAL GUSTS OF 15-20 KTS.

AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDED TAFS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
...DRY AND WINDY SUNDAY SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA AND SOUTHWEST ARIZONA...
SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...
STRONG NORTHERLY WINDS WILL DEVELOP OVER PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST
CALIFORNIA AND SOUTHWEST ARIZONA SUNDAY AS A DRY FRONT PUSHES
THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA. MUCH DRIER AIR WILL MOVE IN AS WELL.
CONDITIONS WILL FLIRT WITH CRITICAL THRESHOLDS SUNDAY
AFTERNOON...MAINLY NEAR THE LOWER COLORADO RIVER VALLEY. WINDS WILL
STAY ELEVATED OVERNIGHT AT RIDGETOPS BUT WILL WEAKEN ON THE VALLEY
FLOORS. EXPECT LIGHTER WINDS MONDAY WITH SOME MINOR BREEZINESS
RESUMING OVER AND NEAR THE LOWER COLORADO RIVER VALLEY. LIGHT WINDS
WILL PREVAIL TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY. EXPECT NEAR TO SOMEWHAT BELOW
NORMAL TEMPERATURES THROUGH TUESDAY BEFORE WARMING AT LEST A FEW
DEGREES WEDNESDAY WITH LITTLE CHANGE THURSDAY. HUMIDITIES WILL
REMAIN LOW WITH SOME IMPROVEMENT POSSIBLE THURSDAY.

&&

.PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

AZ...NONE.

CA...NONE.

&&

$$

VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/PHOENIX

DISCUSSION...CB
AVIATION...AJ
FIRE WEATHER...AJ






000
FXUS65 KFGZ 211033
AFDFGZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ
300 AM MST FRI NOV 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...A WEAK PACIFIC LOW WILL MOVE ACROSS ARIZONA TODAY.
EXPECT CLOUDS AND SCATTERED LIGHT RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS WITH ONLY
LIGHT ACCUMULATION AMOUNTS. ON SATURDAY NIGHT ANOTHER COLD FRONT
WILL MOVE INTO ARIZONA FROM THE NORTH BRINGING BREEZY NORTHERLY
WINDS AND COLDER TEMPERATURES LASTING THROUGH MONDAY. A STRONG HIGH
PRESSURE RIDGE WILL BUILD IN OVER THE WEST COAST WITH A WARMING
TREND IN OUR TEMPERATURES AND DRY WEATHER CONDITIONS LASTING THROUGH
FRIDAY.
&&

.DISCUSSION...A WEAK PACIFIC LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER SOUTHERN
CALIFORNIA IS FORECAST TO MOVE ACROSS WESTERN AND SOUTHERN ARIZONA
TODAY. EXPECT CLOUDS WITH SCATTERED LIGHT RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS
ACROSS NORTHWESTERN AND CENTRAL ARIZONA...FROM THE KAIBAB PLATEAU
ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE MOGOLLON RIM AND YAVAPAI COUNTY MOUNTAINS...
WITH ONLY SLIGHT CHANCES FOR SHOWERS EXPECTED ELSEWHERE. SNOW LEVELS
WILL FALL TO THE 6500 TO 7000 FEET ELEVATION RANGE BY AFTERNOON.
CHANCES FOR SHOWERS WILL DIMINISH RAPIDLY AROUND SUNSET AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS INTO NORTHERN ARIZONA BEHIND THE DEPARTING LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM.

SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY...EXPECT MILD WEATHER CONDITIONS ON SATURDAY
AHEAD OF A DRY COLD FRONT ARRIVING SATURDAY NIGHT EARLY SUNDAY
MORNING. COLDER TEMPERATURES WILL MOVE IN BEHIND THIS FRONTAL ZONE
ALONG WITH BREEZY NORTHERLY WINDS. HIGH TEMPERATURES ON SUNDAY AND
MONDAY ARE FORECAST TO RUN 4-8 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF
YEAR.

TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE BUILDING ALONG THE
WEST COAST AND INTO PARTS OF THE SOUTHWEST U.S. WILL KEEP ARIZONA IN
A DRY WEATHER PATTERN WITH NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL HIGH
TEMPERATURES.
&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 12Z PACKAGE...A WEAK STORM SYSTEM WILL BRING
WDSPRD MID-LEVEL CLOUDS TO THE AREA TODAY...WITH BASES FROM 8-10KFT
AGL. ISOLD TO SCT --SHSN WILL DEVELOP OVER HIGHER TERRAIN ALONG AND
WEST OF A LINE FROM KPAN TO KFLG TO KGCN BY 16Z-18Z...LASTING
THROUGH 00Z-02Z. SKIES WILL CLEAR FROM NW TO SE THIS EVENING.
AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDMENTS.
&&

.FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC.........TC
AVIATION.......PETERSON

FOR NORTHERN ARIZONA WEATHER INFORMATION VISIT
WEATHER.GOV/FLAGSTAFF








000
FXUS65 KPSR 210940
AFDPSR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PHOENIX AZ
240 AM MST FRI NOV 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A DRY PACIFIC WEATHER SYSTEM WILL MOVE QUICKLY EAST ACROSS ARIZONA
TODAY...BRINGING MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES AND SLIGHTLY COOLER
TEMPERATURES ALONG WITH LITTLE RAINFALL EXCEPT FOR A SLIGHT CHANCE
OF SHOWERS OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN EAST OF PHOENIX. MOSTLY CLEAR AND
DRY CONDITIONS WITH NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL RETURN OVER THE
WEEKEND AND THEN LINGER INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. HIGHER PRESSURE ALOFT
WILL BUILD INTO THE DESERT SOUTHWEST BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK
ALLOWING FOR HIGH TEMPERATURES TO CLIMB A FEW DEGREES ABOVE SEASONAL
NORMALS.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
UPPER LEVEL PACIFIC LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM CONTINUED TO DIVE
SOUTHEASTWARD ALONG THE SRN CA COAST...AND INTO THE DESERT SOUTHWEST
EARLY THIS MORNING...WITH THE MAIN UPPER LOW CENTER MOVING ALONG THE
FAR SERN CA COAST. THE MOVEMENT OF THIS SYSTEM WAS CLEARLY EVIDENT
ON IR/VAPOR IMAGERY...AND THE SYSTEM WAS SPREADING CONSIDERABLE
MID/HI CLOUDS INTO SERN CA AND ARIZONA WITH MOST CLOUD BASES AOA 10K
FEET. LATEST SAN DIEGO SOUNDING SHOWED A DRY PROFILE WITH A MEAGER
MARINE LAYER PRESENT BELOW THE 850MB LEVEL. OVERALL THIS WILL BE A
DRY SYSTEM FOR ARIZONA...BRINGING LITTLE IN TERMS OF PRECIP AS MOST
OF THE MOISTURE WILL BE CONFINED TO THE MID LEVELS...WELL ABOVE THE
850MB LEVEL. ALSO...THE SYSTEM HAS A RATHER DRY OVERLAND TRAJECTORY
AND WILL BE QUITE PROGRESSIVE GIVING IT LITTLE TIME TO ENTRAIN
MOISTURE FROM THE PACIFIC BEFORE MAKING ITS INLAND TREK. MODELS
REMAIN IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE TIMING AND TRACK OF THE
LOW...AND IF ANYTHING THE LATEST RUNS BRING THE MAIN LOW CENTER AND
BEST DYNAMICS SLIGHTLY FURTHER TO THE SOUTH...WITH THE LOW CENTER
FORECAST TO SLIDE ALONG THE SRN AZ BORDER BEFORE DROPPING INTO NWRN
MEXICO LATER THIS AFTERNOON. GIVEN THE LIMITED AMOUNT OF MOISTURE
ALREADY IN PLACE FOR THE SYSTEM TO WORK WITH...ITS DRY TRAJECTORY
AND THE FACT THAT MOST OF THE DYNAMICS/PVA AND HEIGHT FALLS STAY
ACROSS FAR SRN AZ...POPS WILL REMAIN IN THE SINGLE DIGITS OVER THE
LOWER DESERTS TODAY AND WILL ONLY BE IN THE SLIGHT CHANCE CATEGORY
OVER ZONE 24...THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF SRN GILA COUNTY. AGAIN....THIS
SYSTEM WILL BRING CONSIDERABLE MID/HIGH CLOUDS...A BIT OF COOLING
AND LITTLE IF ANY PRECIP TODAY INTO THE EARLY EVENING.

AS THE UPPER LOW QUICKLY EXITS TO THE EAST/SOUTHEAST TONIGHT...SERN
CA AND AZ WILL COME UNDER A COOL...DRY AND SUBSIDENT NWLY FLOW
ALOFT. SOME HIGH CLOUDS WILL SPREAD IN FROM THE NORTHWEST SATURDAY
FOR PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES...AND HIGH TEMPS WILL STAY NEAR
SEASONAL NORMAL LEVELS WITH A HIGH OF 72 FORECAST FOR PHOENIX.

FOR SUNDAY INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK...GUIDANCE AGREES THAT A DRY
NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL BE THE RULE EACH DAY...AS HIGH PRESSURE
GRADUALLY BUILDS INTO THE AREA FOR MOSTLY SUNNY DAYS AND MOSTLY
CLEAR NIGHTS. SOME SHORTWAVE ENERGY PASSING THROUGH THE FOUR CORNERS
AREA SUNDAY WILL BRING ANOTHER SHOT OF COOLER AIR TO THE REGION...
ALLOWING TEMPS MONDAY TO FALL BACK SLIGHTLY...MAINLY OVER SOUTH
CENTRAL AZ. HIGHS WILL DROP BACK INTO THE UPPER 60S OVER THE LOWER
CENTRAL DESERTS MONDAY WITH PHOENIX TO SEE A HIGH AROUND 69. AFTER
THAT...A SLOW WARMING TREND IS EXPECTED WITH HIGHS RISING INTO THE
MID 70S BY WEDNESDAY OVER THE WARMER LOWER DESERTS UNDER MOSTLY
SUNNY SKIES.

&&

.AVIATION...
SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA INCLUDING KPHX...KIWA...AND KSDL...
MID/HIGH CLOUDS WILL INCREASE AND LOWER THROUGH FRIDAY
AFTERNOON...WITH CIGS FALLING AS LOW AS 10K FT AFTER 18Z FRIDAY.
EXPECT EXTENSIVE VIRGA THROUGHOUT THE DAY...BUT AT MOST SPRINKLES
REACHING THE AERODROME TARMACS. SFC WINDS WILL RETAIN A LIGHT
EASTERLY COMPONENT UNTIL FROPA LATE FRIDAY AFTERNOON.


SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA AND SOUTHWEST ARIZONA...INCLUDING KIPL AND
KBLH...
HIGH CLOUDS WILL GRADUALLY CLEAR FRIDAY MORNING...HOWEVER FEW-SCT
5K-6K FT DECK MAY BRIEFLY DEVELOP BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON. BIGGEST
AVIATION IMPACT WILL BE TIMING OF WIND SHIFT WITH FRONTAL
PASSAGE...AND MAGNITUDE OF POST FRONTAL WINDS. COULD SEE A SHALLOW
DENSITY CURRENT PRODUCE A BRIEF PERIOD OF GUSTY WEST WINDS AT KIPL
FRIDAY MORNING...WITH THE TREND TOWARDS A STEADY NW WIND AOB 15KT BY
THE AFTERNOON. GRADIENT AT KBLH WILL BE WEAKER YIELDING LOWER WIND
SPEEDS.

AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDED TAFS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS CAN BE EXPECTED SATURDAY BEHIND A
DEPARTING UPPER LOW. HUMIDITIES WILL TREND DOWNWARD SIGNIFICANTLY
SUNDAY AS DRY AIR FROM THE NORTH PUSHES THROUGH THE AREA. BREEZY TO
WINDY CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED AS WELL OVER SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA
AND SOUTHWEST ARIZONA. HOWEVER...WIND SPEEDS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO
REACH CRITICAL THRESHOLDS. EXPECT WINDS SUNDAY TO BE LIGHTER OVER
SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA. LINGERING BREEZINESS CONTINUES MONDAY AND
EXPANDS SOMEWHAT INTO SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA. MEANWHILE...EXPECT
RIDGETOPS TO BE WINDY AND QUITE A BIT STRONGER AT NIGHT THAN THE
VALLEY FLOORS. TEMPERATURES WILL BE A BIT BELOW NORMAL OVERALL. DRY
CONDITIONS CONTINUE THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

&&

.PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

AZ...NONE.

CA...NONE.

&&

$$

VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/PHOENIX

DISCUSSION...CB
AVIATION...MO
FIRE WEATHER...AJ










000
FXUS65 KPSR 210940
AFDPSR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PHOENIX AZ
240 AM MST FRI NOV 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A DRY PACIFIC WEATHER SYSTEM WILL MOVE QUICKLY EAST ACROSS ARIZONA
TODAY...BRINGING MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES AND SLIGHTLY COOLER
TEMPERATURES ALONG WITH LITTLE RAINFALL EXCEPT FOR A SLIGHT CHANCE
OF SHOWERS OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN EAST OF PHOENIX. MOSTLY CLEAR AND
DRY CONDITIONS WITH NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL RETURN OVER THE
WEEKEND AND THEN LINGER INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. HIGHER PRESSURE ALOFT
WILL BUILD INTO THE DESERT SOUTHWEST BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK
ALLOWING FOR HIGH TEMPERATURES TO CLIMB A FEW DEGREES ABOVE SEASONAL
NORMALS.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
UPPER LEVEL PACIFIC LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM CONTINUED TO DIVE
SOUTHEASTWARD ALONG THE SRN CA COAST...AND INTO THE DESERT SOUTHWEST
EARLY THIS MORNING...WITH THE MAIN UPPER LOW CENTER MOVING ALONG THE
FAR SERN CA COAST. THE MOVEMENT OF THIS SYSTEM WAS CLEARLY EVIDENT
ON IR/VAPOR IMAGERY...AND THE SYSTEM WAS SPREADING CONSIDERABLE
MID/HI CLOUDS INTO SERN CA AND ARIZONA WITH MOST CLOUD BASES AOA 10K
FEET. LATEST SAN DIEGO SOUNDING SHOWED A DRY PROFILE WITH A MEAGER
MARINE LAYER PRESENT BELOW THE 850MB LEVEL. OVERALL THIS WILL BE A
DRY SYSTEM FOR ARIZONA...BRINGING LITTLE IN TERMS OF PRECIP AS MOST
OF THE MOISTURE WILL BE CONFINED TO THE MID LEVELS...WELL ABOVE THE
850MB LEVEL. ALSO...THE SYSTEM HAS A RATHER DRY OVERLAND TRAJECTORY
AND WILL BE QUITE PROGRESSIVE GIVING IT LITTLE TIME TO ENTRAIN
MOISTURE FROM THE PACIFIC BEFORE MAKING ITS INLAND TREK. MODELS
REMAIN IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE TIMING AND TRACK OF THE
LOW...AND IF ANYTHING THE LATEST RUNS BRING THE MAIN LOW CENTER AND
BEST DYNAMICS SLIGHTLY FURTHER TO THE SOUTH...WITH THE LOW CENTER
FORECAST TO SLIDE ALONG THE SRN AZ BORDER BEFORE DROPPING INTO NWRN
MEXICO LATER THIS AFTERNOON. GIVEN THE LIMITED AMOUNT OF MOISTURE
ALREADY IN PLACE FOR THE SYSTEM TO WORK WITH...ITS DRY TRAJECTORY
AND THE FACT THAT MOST OF THE DYNAMICS/PVA AND HEIGHT FALLS STAY
ACROSS FAR SRN AZ...POPS WILL REMAIN IN THE SINGLE DIGITS OVER THE
LOWER DESERTS TODAY AND WILL ONLY BE IN THE SLIGHT CHANCE CATEGORY
OVER ZONE 24...THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF SRN GILA COUNTY. AGAIN....THIS
SYSTEM WILL BRING CONSIDERABLE MID/HIGH CLOUDS...A BIT OF COOLING
AND LITTLE IF ANY PRECIP TODAY INTO THE EARLY EVENING.

AS THE UPPER LOW QUICKLY EXITS TO THE EAST/SOUTHEAST TONIGHT...SERN
CA AND AZ WILL COME UNDER A COOL...DRY AND SUBSIDENT NWLY FLOW
ALOFT. SOME HIGH CLOUDS WILL SPREAD IN FROM THE NORTHWEST SATURDAY
FOR PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES...AND HIGH TEMPS WILL STAY NEAR
SEASONAL NORMAL LEVELS WITH A HIGH OF 72 FORECAST FOR PHOENIX.

FOR SUNDAY INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK...GUIDANCE AGREES THAT A DRY
NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL BE THE RULE EACH DAY...AS HIGH PRESSURE
GRADUALLY BUILDS INTO THE AREA FOR MOSTLY SUNNY DAYS AND MOSTLY
CLEAR NIGHTS. SOME SHORTWAVE ENERGY PASSING THROUGH THE FOUR CORNERS
AREA SUNDAY WILL BRING ANOTHER SHOT OF COOLER AIR TO THE REGION...
ALLOWING TEMPS MONDAY TO FALL BACK SLIGHTLY...MAINLY OVER SOUTH
CENTRAL AZ. HIGHS WILL DROP BACK INTO THE UPPER 60S OVER THE LOWER
CENTRAL DESERTS MONDAY WITH PHOENIX TO SEE A HIGH AROUND 69. AFTER
THAT...A SLOW WARMING TREND IS EXPECTED WITH HIGHS RISING INTO THE
MID 70S BY WEDNESDAY OVER THE WARMER LOWER DESERTS UNDER MOSTLY
SUNNY SKIES.

&&

.AVIATION...
SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA INCLUDING KPHX...KIWA...AND KSDL...
MID/HIGH CLOUDS WILL INCREASE AND LOWER THROUGH FRIDAY
AFTERNOON...WITH CIGS FALLING AS LOW AS 10K FT AFTER 18Z FRIDAY.
EXPECT EXTENSIVE VIRGA THROUGHOUT THE DAY...BUT AT MOST SPRINKLES
REACHING THE AERODROME TARMACS. SFC WINDS WILL RETAIN A LIGHT
EASTERLY COMPONENT UNTIL FROPA LATE FRIDAY AFTERNOON.


SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA AND SOUTHWEST ARIZONA...INCLUDING KIPL AND
KBLH...
HIGH CLOUDS WILL GRADUALLY CLEAR FRIDAY MORNING...HOWEVER FEW-SCT
5K-6K FT DECK MAY BRIEFLY DEVELOP BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON. BIGGEST
AVIATION IMPACT WILL BE TIMING OF WIND SHIFT WITH FRONTAL
PASSAGE...AND MAGNITUDE OF POST FRONTAL WINDS. COULD SEE A SHALLOW
DENSITY CURRENT PRODUCE A BRIEF PERIOD OF GUSTY WEST WINDS AT KIPL
FRIDAY MORNING...WITH THE TREND TOWARDS A STEADY NW WIND AOB 15KT BY
THE AFTERNOON. GRADIENT AT KBLH WILL BE WEAKER YIELDING LOWER WIND
SPEEDS.

AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDED TAFS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS CAN BE EXPECTED SATURDAY BEHIND A
DEPARTING UPPER LOW. HUMIDITIES WILL TREND DOWNWARD SIGNIFICANTLY
SUNDAY AS DRY AIR FROM THE NORTH PUSHES THROUGH THE AREA. BREEZY TO
WINDY CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED AS WELL OVER SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA
AND SOUTHWEST ARIZONA. HOWEVER...WIND SPEEDS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO
REACH CRITICAL THRESHOLDS. EXPECT WINDS SUNDAY TO BE LIGHTER OVER
SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA. LINGERING BREEZINESS CONTINUES MONDAY AND
EXPANDS SOMEWHAT INTO SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA. MEANWHILE...EXPECT
RIDGETOPS TO BE WINDY AND QUITE A BIT STRONGER AT NIGHT THAN THE
VALLEY FLOORS. TEMPERATURES WILL BE A BIT BELOW NORMAL OVERALL. DRY
CONDITIONS CONTINUE THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

&&

.PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

AZ...NONE.

CA...NONE.

&&

$$

VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/PHOENIX

DISCUSSION...CB
AVIATION...MO
FIRE WEATHER...AJ









000
FXUS65 KTWC 210933
AFDTWC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ
230 AM MST FRI NOV 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...A WEAK LOW WILL PUSH ACROSS SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE
AREA NEAR THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER LATE TODAY INTO TONIGHT. THIS
SYSTEM WILL BRING ISOLATED TO SCATTERED VALLEY RAIN AND MOUNTAIN
SNOW SHOWERS. LIGHT PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS WILL BE THE RULE. DRY
CONDITIONS WILL THEN PREVAIL THIS WEEKEND INTO THANKSGIVING DAY.
ANOTHER ROUND OF COLD OVERNIGHT LOWS THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEK WITH
A WARMING TREND LATER IN THE WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...STILL DRY ACROSS THE AREA EARLY THIS MORNING WITH
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES AROUND 1/4 OF AN INCH AND SURFACE DEWPTS
IN THE TEENS AND 20S. MODEST LOW CURRENTLY PUSHING THROUGH SOUTHERN
CALIFORNIA WITH SHOWERS AROUND THE SAN DIEGO AREA. BY LATE MORNING
THIS FEATURE IS EXPECTED TO BE NEAR YUMA...THEN NEAR TO JUST SOUTH
OF NOGALES BY LATE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. EXPECT JUST ENOUGH
MOISTURE DIRECTLY ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW ALONG WITH A BRIEF TAP
FROM THE NORTHERN GULF TO MANAGE SOME SHOWERS NEAR THE TRACK OF THE
COOL POOL. THIS WILL FAVOR AREAS NEAR THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER FOR
THE BEST CHANCE OF VALLEY RAIN AND HIGH ELEVATION MOUNTAIN
SNOW...HOWEVER WE SHOULD MANAGE A FEW SHOWERS AS FAR NORTH AS THE
GREATER TUCSON AREA BY TONIGHT. LIMITED QPF VALUES GENERALLY UNDER
1/10 OF AN INCH. SNOW LEVELS AS LOW AS 7500 FEET OR SO...BUT VERY
LIMITED ACCUMULATIONS...JUST A DUSTING.

THE LOW WILL BE EAST OF THE AREA BY SATURDAY WITH AN INITIAL BRIEF
SHORTWAVE RIDGE AXIS OVER ARIZONA. STRONG TROUGHINESS DEVELOPING
NORTHEAST AND EAST OF OUR AREA WILL TIGHTEN THE GRADIENT LATE
SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY BUT REMAINING WELL SHORT OF ANY WIND HEADLINES
THIS FAR SOUTH AND WEST. SOME REINFORCING COOL AIR BLEEDING OVER
INTO EASTERN AREAS AGAIN THE FIRST HALF OF THE NEW WEEK. ANOTHER
ROUND OF FREEZES AND HARD FREEZES FROM SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH AT LEAST
WEDNESDAY MORNING IN VALLEY LOCATIONS OF COCHISE...SANTA
CRUZ...GRAHAM AND GREENLEE COUNTIES. ALSO COLDER SPOTS AROUND
EASTERN PIMA COUNTY...BUT PROBABLY NOT TIA OR MOST OF METRO TUCSON.

00Z ECMWF AND GFS ARE HANDLING THINGS IN A SIMILAR FASHION THROUGH
WEDNESDAY...RIDGE PHASING IN FROM THE COAST THE FIRST HALF OF THE
WEEK WILL LOSE SIGNIFICANT AMPLITUDE WITH THE STRONG DEVELOPING
TROUGH SOUTH OF THE GULF OF ALASKA SENDING FRAGMENTS INTO THE
PACIFIC NORTHWEST AND NORTHERN CALIFORNIA. THIS WILL TAMP DOWN THE
POTENTIAL OF OUR WARMING TREND UNTIL LATER NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...VALID THRU 22/09Z.
AN APPROACHING WEATHER SYSTEM WILL SPREAD INCREASING HIGH LEVEL
CLOUDINESS OVER THE REGION EARLY THIS MORNING. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
WILL SLOWLY BE ON THE INCREASE WITH LOWER CLOUDS INCREASING LATER
TODAY INTO THIS EVENING. SHOWERS MAY IMPACT TERMINAL AREAS
ESPECIALLY AFTER 22/00Z. THIS WEATHER SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO BE EAST
OF THE AREA BY EARLY SATURDAY. VFR CONDITIONS ARE ANTICIPATED FOR
MOST LOCALES THROUGHOUT THE EVENT. WINDS WILL GENERALLY REMAIN LESS
THAN 10 KNOTS WITH SOME AFTERNOON GUSTINESS POSSIBLE. AVIATION
DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR TAF AMENDMENTS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BRING ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS WITH A FEW MOUNTAIN SNOW SHOWERS LATE THIS
AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING...ESPECIALLY NEAR THE INTERNATIONAL
BORDER. CANNOT RULE OUT A RUMBLE OF THUNDER NEAR THE INTERNATIONAL
BORDER AS WELL. ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM PASSING TO THE NORTH OF
THE REGION SUNDAY WILL BRING GUSTY WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS TO THE
AREA. THE UPPER GILA VALLEY MAY SEE WINDS OF 12-18 MPH WITH GUSTS OF
25-30 MPH. DRY WITH COLD OVERNIGHT LOWS THE FIRST HALF OF THE NEW
WEEK WITH A WARMING TREND LATE IN THE WEEK.

&&

.TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...YOUTUBE...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/TUCSON

MEYER/MEADOWS






000
FXUS65 KTWC 210933
AFDTWC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ
230 AM MST FRI NOV 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...A WEAK LOW WILL PUSH ACROSS SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE
AREA NEAR THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER LATE TODAY INTO TONIGHT. THIS
SYSTEM WILL BRING ISOLATED TO SCATTERED VALLEY RAIN AND MOUNTAIN
SNOW SHOWERS. LIGHT PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS WILL BE THE RULE. DRY
CONDITIONS WILL THEN PREVAIL THIS WEEKEND INTO THANKSGIVING DAY.
ANOTHER ROUND OF COLD OVERNIGHT LOWS THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEK WITH
A WARMING TREND LATER IN THE WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...STILL DRY ACROSS THE AREA EARLY THIS MORNING WITH
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES AROUND 1/4 OF AN INCH AND SURFACE DEWPTS
IN THE TEENS AND 20S. MODEST LOW CURRENTLY PUSHING THROUGH SOUTHERN
CALIFORNIA WITH SHOWERS AROUND THE SAN DIEGO AREA. BY LATE MORNING
THIS FEATURE IS EXPECTED TO BE NEAR YUMA...THEN NEAR TO JUST SOUTH
OF NOGALES BY LATE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. EXPECT JUST ENOUGH
MOISTURE DIRECTLY ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW ALONG WITH A BRIEF TAP
FROM THE NORTHERN GULF TO MANAGE SOME SHOWERS NEAR THE TRACK OF THE
COOL POOL. THIS WILL FAVOR AREAS NEAR THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER FOR
THE BEST CHANCE OF VALLEY RAIN AND HIGH ELEVATION MOUNTAIN
SNOW...HOWEVER WE SHOULD MANAGE A FEW SHOWERS AS FAR NORTH AS THE
GREATER TUCSON AREA BY TONIGHT. LIMITED QPF VALUES GENERALLY UNDER
1/10 OF AN INCH. SNOW LEVELS AS LOW AS 7500 FEET OR SO...BUT VERY
LIMITED ACCUMULATIONS...JUST A DUSTING.

THE LOW WILL BE EAST OF THE AREA BY SATURDAY WITH AN INITIAL BRIEF
SHORTWAVE RIDGE AXIS OVER ARIZONA. STRONG TROUGHINESS DEVELOPING
NORTHEAST AND EAST OF OUR AREA WILL TIGHTEN THE GRADIENT LATE
SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY BUT REMAINING WELL SHORT OF ANY WIND HEADLINES
THIS FAR SOUTH AND WEST. SOME REINFORCING COOL AIR BLEEDING OVER
INTO EASTERN AREAS AGAIN THE FIRST HALF OF THE NEW WEEK. ANOTHER
ROUND OF FREEZES AND HARD FREEZES FROM SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH AT LEAST
WEDNESDAY MORNING IN VALLEY LOCATIONS OF COCHISE...SANTA
CRUZ...GRAHAM AND GREENLEE COUNTIES. ALSO COLDER SPOTS AROUND
EASTERN PIMA COUNTY...BUT PROBABLY NOT TIA OR MOST OF METRO TUCSON.

00Z ECMWF AND GFS ARE HANDLING THINGS IN A SIMILAR FASHION THROUGH
WEDNESDAY...RIDGE PHASING IN FROM THE COAST THE FIRST HALF OF THE
WEEK WILL LOSE SIGNIFICANT AMPLITUDE WITH THE STRONG DEVELOPING
TROUGH SOUTH OF THE GULF OF ALASKA SENDING FRAGMENTS INTO THE
PACIFIC NORTHWEST AND NORTHERN CALIFORNIA. THIS WILL TAMP DOWN THE
POTENTIAL OF OUR WARMING TREND UNTIL LATER NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...VALID THRU 22/09Z.
AN APPROACHING WEATHER SYSTEM WILL SPREAD INCREASING HIGH LEVEL
CLOUDINESS OVER THE REGION EARLY THIS MORNING. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
WILL SLOWLY BE ON THE INCREASE WITH LOWER CLOUDS INCREASING LATER
TODAY INTO THIS EVENING. SHOWERS MAY IMPACT TERMINAL AREAS
ESPECIALLY AFTER 22/00Z. THIS WEATHER SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO BE EAST
OF THE AREA BY EARLY SATURDAY. VFR CONDITIONS ARE ANTICIPATED FOR
MOST LOCALES THROUGHOUT THE EVENT. WINDS WILL GENERALLY REMAIN LESS
THAN 10 KNOTS WITH SOME AFTERNOON GUSTINESS POSSIBLE. AVIATION
DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR TAF AMENDMENTS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BRING ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS WITH A FEW MOUNTAIN SNOW SHOWERS LATE THIS
AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING...ESPECIALLY NEAR THE INTERNATIONAL
BORDER. CANNOT RULE OUT A RUMBLE OF THUNDER NEAR THE INTERNATIONAL
BORDER AS WELL. ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM PASSING TO THE NORTH OF
THE REGION SUNDAY WILL BRING GUSTY WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS TO THE
AREA. THE UPPER GILA VALLEY MAY SEE WINDS OF 12-18 MPH WITH GUSTS OF
25-30 MPH. DRY WITH COLD OVERNIGHT LOWS THE FIRST HALF OF THE NEW
WEEK WITH A WARMING TREND LATE IN THE WEEK.

&&

.TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...YOUTUBE...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/TUCSON

MEYER/MEADOWS






000
FXUS65 KTWC 210933
AFDTWC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ
230 AM MST FRI NOV 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...A WEAK LOW WILL PUSH ACROSS SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE
AREA NEAR THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER LATE TODAY INTO TONIGHT. THIS
SYSTEM WILL BRING ISOLATED TO SCATTERED VALLEY RAIN AND MOUNTAIN
SNOW SHOWERS. LIGHT PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS WILL BE THE RULE. DRY
CONDITIONS WILL THEN PREVAIL THIS WEEKEND INTO THANKSGIVING DAY.
ANOTHER ROUND OF COLD OVERNIGHT LOWS THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEK WITH
A WARMING TREND LATER IN THE WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...STILL DRY ACROSS THE AREA EARLY THIS MORNING WITH
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES AROUND 1/4 OF AN INCH AND SURFACE DEWPTS
IN THE TEENS AND 20S. MODEST LOW CURRENTLY PUSHING THROUGH SOUTHERN
CALIFORNIA WITH SHOWERS AROUND THE SAN DIEGO AREA. BY LATE MORNING
THIS FEATURE IS EXPECTED TO BE NEAR YUMA...THEN NEAR TO JUST SOUTH
OF NOGALES BY LATE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. EXPECT JUST ENOUGH
MOISTURE DIRECTLY ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW ALONG WITH A BRIEF TAP
FROM THE NORTHERN GULF TO MANAGE SOME SHOWERS NEAR THE TRACK OF THE
COOL POOL. THIS WILL FAVOR AREAS NEAR THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER FOR
THE BEST CHANCE OF VALLEY RAIN AND HIGH ELEVATION MOUNTAIN
SNOW...HOWEVER WE SHOULD MANAGE A FEW SHOWERS AS FAR NORTH AS THE
GREATER TUCSON AREA BY TONIGHT. LIMITED QPF VALUES GENERALLY UNDER
1/10 OF AN INCH. SNOW LEVELS AS LOW AS 7500 FEET OR SO...BUT VERY
LIMITED ACCUMULATIONS...JUST A DUSTING.

THE LOW WILL BE EAST OF THE AREA BY SATURDAY WITH AN INITIAL BRIEF
SHORTWAVE RIDGE AXIS OVER ARIZONA. STRONG TROUGHINESS DEVELOPING
NORTHEAST AND EAST OF OUR AREA WILL TIGHTEN THE GRADIENT LATE
SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY BUT REMAINING WELL SHORT OF ANY WIND HEADLINES
THIS FAR SOUTH AND WEST. SOME REINFORCING COOL AIR BLEEDING OVER
INTO EASTERN AREAS AGAIN THE FIRST HALF OF THE NEW WEEK. ANOTHER
ROUND OF FREEZES AND HARD FREEZES FROM SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH AT LEAST
WEDNESDAY MORNING IN VALLEY LOCATIONS OF COCHISE...SANTA
CRUZ...GRAHAM AND GREENLEE COUNTIES. ALSO COLDER SPOTS AROUND
EASTERN PIMA COUNTY...BUT PROBABLY NOT TIA OR MOST OF METRO TUCSON.

00Z ECMWF AND GFS ARE HANDLING THINGS IN A SIMILAR FASHION THROUGH
WEDNESDAY...RIDGE PHASING IN FROM THE COAST THE FIRST HALF OF THE
WEEK WILL LOSE SIGNIFICANT AMPLITUDE WITH THE STRONG DEVELOPING
TROUGH SOUTH OF THE GULF OF ALASKA SENDING FRAGMENTS INTO THE
PACIFIC NORTHWEST AND NORTHERN CALIFORNIA. THIS WILL TAMP DOWN THE
POTENTIAL OF OUR WARMING TREND UNTIL LATER NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...VALID THRU 22/09Z.
AN APPROACHING WEATHER SYSTEM WILL SPREAD INCREASING HIGH LEVEL
CLOUDINESS OVER THE REGION EARLY THIS MORNING. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
WILL SLOWLY BE ON THE INCREASE WITH LOWER CLOUDS INCREASING LATER
TODAY INTO THIS EVENING. SHOWERS MAY IMPACT TERMINAL AREAS
ESPECIALLY AFTER 22/00Z. THIS WEATHER SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO BE EAST
OF THE AREA BY EARLY SATURDAY. VFR CONDITIONS ARE ANTICIPATED FOR
MOST LOCALES THROUGHOUT THE EVENT. WINDS WILL GENERALLY REMAIN LESS
THAN 10 KNOTS WITH SOME AFTERNOON GUSTINESS POSSIBLE. AVIATION
DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR TAF AMENDMENTS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BRING ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS WITH A FEW MOUNTAIN SNOW SHOWERS LATE THIS
AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING...ESPECIALLY NEAR THE INTERNATIONAL
BORDER. CANNOT RULE OUT A RUMBLE OF THUNDER NEAR THE INTERNATIONAL
BORDER AS WELL. ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM PASSING TO THE NORTH OF
THE REGION SUNDAY WILL BRING GUSTY WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS TO THE
AREA. THE UPPER GILA VALLEY MAY SEE WINDS OF 12-18 MPH WITH GUSTS OF
25-30 MPH. DRY WITH COLD OVERNIGHT LOWS THE FIRST HALF OF THE NEW
WEEK WITH A WARMING TREND LATE IN THE WEEK.

&&

.TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...YOUTUBE...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/TUCSON

MEYER/MEADOWS






000
FXUS65 KTWC 210933
AFDTWC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ
230 AM MST FRI NOV 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...A WEAK LOW WILL PUSH ACROSS SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE
AREA NEAR THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER LATE TODAY INTO TONIGHT. THIS
SYSTEM WILL BRING ISOLATED TO SCATTERED VALLEY RAIN AND MOUNTAIN
SNOW SHOWERS. LIGHT PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS WILL BE THE RULE. DRY
CONDITIONS WILL THEN PREVAIL THIS WEEKEND INTO THANKSGIVING DAY.
ANOTHER ROUND OF COLD OVERNIGHT LOWS THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEK WITH
A WARMING TREND LATER IN THE WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...STILL DRY ACROSS THE AREA EARLY THIS MORNING WITH
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES AROUND 1/4 OF AN INCH AND SURFACE DEWPTS
IN THE TEENS AND 20S. MODEST LOW CURRENTLY PUSHING THROUGH SOUTHERN
CALIFORNIA WITH SHOWERS AROUND THE SAN DIEGO AREA. BY LATE MORNING
THIS FEATURE IS EXPECTED TO BE NEAR YUMA...THEN NEAR TO JUST SOUTH
OF NOGALES BY LATE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. EXPECT JUST ENOUGH
MOISTURE DIRECTLY ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW ALONG WITH A BRIEF TAP
FROM THE NORTHERN GULF TO MANAGE SOME SHOWERS NEAR THE TRACK OF THE
COOL POOL. THIS WILL FAVOR AREAS NEAR THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER FOR
THE BEST CHANCE OF VALLEY RAIN AND HIGH ELEVATION MOUNTAIN
SNOW...HOWEVER WE SHOULD MANAGE A FEW SHOWERS AS FAR NORTH AS THE
GREATER TUCSON AREA BY TONIGHT. LIMITED QPF VALUES GENERALLY UNDER
1/10 OF AN INCH. SNOW LEVELS AS LOW AS 7500 FEET OR SO...BUT VERY
LIMITED ACCUMULATIONS...JUST A DUSTING.

THE LOW WILL BE EAST OF THE AREA BY SATURDAY WITH AN INITIAL BRIEF
SHORTWAVE RIDGE AXIS OVER ARIZONA. STRONG TROUGHINESS DEVELOPING
NORTHEAST AND EAST OF OUR AREA WILL TIGHTEN THE GRADIENT LATE
SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY BUT REMAINING WELL SHORT OF ANY WIND HEADLINES
THIS FAR SOUTH AND WEST. SOME REINFORCING COOL AIR BLEEDING OVER
INTO EASTERN AREAS AGAIN THE FIRST HALF OF THE NEW WEEK. ANOTHER
ROUND OF FREEZES AND HARD FREEZES FROM SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH AT LEAST
WEDNESDAY MORNING IN VALLEY LOCATIONS OF COCHISE...SANTA
CRUZ...GRAHAM AND GREENLEE COUNTIES. ALSO COLDER SPOTS AROUND
EASTERN PIMA COUNTY...BUT PROBABLY NOT TIA OR MOST OF METRO TUCSON.

00Z ECMWF AND GFS ARE HANDLING THINGS IN A SIMILAR FASHION THROUGH
WEDNESDAY...RIDGE PHASING IN FROM THE COAST THE FIRST HALF OF THE
WEEK WILL LOSE SIGNIFICANT AMPLITUDE WITH THE STRONG DEVELOPING
TROUGH SOUTH OF THE GULF OF ALASKA SENDING FRAGMENTS INTO THE
PACIFIC NORTHWEST AND NORTHERN CALIFORNIA. THIS WILL TAMP DOWN THE
POTENTIAL OF OUR WARMING TREND UNTIL LATER NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...VALID THRU 22/09Z.
AN APPROACHING WEATHER SYSTEM WILL SPREAD INCREASING HIGH LEVEL
CLOUDINESS OVER THE REGION EARLY THIS MORNING. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
WILL SLOWLY BE ON THE INCREASE WITH LOWER CLOUDS INCREASING LATER
TODAY INTO THIS EVENING. SHOWERS MAY IMPACT TERMINAL AREAS
ESPECIALLY AFTER 22/00Z. THIS WEATHER SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO BE EAST
OF THE AREA BY EARLY SATURDAY. VFR CONDITIONS ARE ANTICIPATED FOR
MOST LOCALES THROUGHOUT THE EVENT. WINDS WILL GENERALLY REMAIN LESS
THAN 10 KNOTS WITH SOME AFTERNOON GUSTINESS POSSIBLE. AVIATION
DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR TAF AMENDMENTS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BRING ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS WITH A FEW MOUNTAIN SNOW SHOWERS LATE THIS
AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING...ESPECIALLY NEAR THE INTERNATIONAL
BORDER. CANNOT RULE OUT A RUMBLE OF THUNDER NEAR THE INTERNATIONAL
BORDER AS WELL. ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM PASSING TO THE NORTH OF
THE REGION SUNDAY WILL BRING GUSTY WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS TO THE
AREA. THE UPPER GILA VALLEY MAY SEE WINDS OF 12-18 MPH WITH GUSTS OF
25-30 MPH. DRY WITH COLD OVERNIGHT LOWS THE FIRST HALF OF THE NEW
WEEK WITH A WARMING TREND LATE IN THE WEEK.

&&

.TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...YOUTUBE...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/TUCSON

MEYER/MEADOWS






000
FXUS65 KTWC 210418
AFDTWC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ
915 PM MST THU NOV 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE NEAR THE INTERNATIONAL
BORDER FRIDAY AFTERNOON INTO FRIDAY NIGHT. THIS SYSTEM WILL BRING
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED VALLEY RAIN AND MOUNTAIN SNOW SHOWERS. LIGHT
PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS WILL BE THE RULE. DRY CONDITIONS WILL THEN
PREVAIL THIS WEEKEND INTO THANKSGIVING DAY. EXPECT COOLER DAYTIME
TEMPERATURES THIS WEEKEND FOLLOWED BY A WARMING TREND BY
THANKSGIVING DAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...21/04Z SFC TEMPS ACROSS SRN AZ GENERALLY RANGED FROM
THE 40S AND 50S AT LOW ELEVATIONS TO THE UPPER 30S IN THE MOUNTAINS.
STILL QUITE DRY TONIGHT WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE TEENS AND LOW 20S.
SCT-BKN MOSTLY HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS HAVE BEEN INCREASING IN COVERAGE
AND THICKNESS OVER THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS IN ADVANCE OF A DEEPENING
UPPER LEVEL TROF. THIS SYSTEM WILL MOVE SEWD INTO FAR SWRN AZ MIDDAY
FRI...AND INTO NERN SONORA FRI NIGHT. EXPECT CLOUD COVER TO CONTINUE
TO INCREASE WITH CLOUD BASES LOWERING THROUGHOUT THE DAY FRIDAY.
21/00Z GFS ALONG WITH THE LATEST SREF SUGGEST THE BEST CHANCES OF
PRECIP WILL BE ALONG THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER AFTER 22/00Z. HAVE
DONE A QUICK UPDATE TO LOWER POPS AREA WIDE FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND
INCREASE THEM FRIDAY EVENING...ESPECIALLY NEAR THE INTERNATIONAL
BORDER OF COCHISE AND SANTA CRUZ COUNTIES. WITH GFS/NAM BUFR
SOUNDINGS COOLING MID-LVL TEMPS DOWN 5-10 DEGS 24 HOURS FROM
NOW...CANNOT RULE OUT A RUMBLE OF THUNDER OR TWO. THEREFORE HAVE
ADDED IN A SLIGHT CHANCE OF TSTORMS FOR SRN PORTIONS OF COCHISE AND
SANTA CRUZ COUNTIES FRIDAY NIGHT. EXPECT PRECIP TO BE CLEAR OF THE
AREA BY MID-MORNING ON SATURDAY. THE REST OF THE FORECAST LOOKS TO
BE ON TRACK AT THIS TIME. FOR ADDITIONAL DETAILS...PLEASE SEE THE
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION BELOW.

&&

.AVIATION...VALID THRU 22/06Z.
AN APPROACHING WEATHER SYSTEM WILL SPREAD INCREASING HIGH LEVEL
CLOUDINESS OVER THE REGION THROUGH FRIDAY. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL
SLOWLY BE ON THE INCREASE WITH LOWER CLOUDS INCREASING MID DAY
FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY EVENING. SHOWERS MAY IMPACT TERMINAL AREAS
ESPECIALLY AFTER 22/00Z. THIS WEATHER SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO BE EAST
OF THE AREA BY EARLY SATURDAY. VFR CONDITIONS ARE ANTICIPATED FOR
MOST LOCALES THROUGHOUT THE EVENT. WINDS WILL GENERALLY REMAIN LESS
THAN 10 KNOTS WITH SOME AFTERNOON GUSTINESS POSSIBLE. AVIATION
DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR TAF AMENDMENTS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BRING ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS WITH PERHAPS A FEW MOUNTAIN SNOW SHOWERS LATE
FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND FRIDAY NIGHT. CANNOT RULE OUT A RUMBLE OF
THUNDER NEAR THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER. DRY CONDITIONS WILL THEN
PREVAIL THIS WEEKEND THROUGH THANKSGIVING DAY. ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM PASSING TO THE NORTH OF THE REGION SUNDAY WILL BRING GUSTY
WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS TO THE AREA. THE UPPER GILA VALLEY MAY SEE
WINDS OF 10-15 MPH WITH GUSTS OF 25-30 MPH. SLIGHTLY ELEVATED
EASTERLY WINDS ARE EXPECTED TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...FOR THE OFFICIAL FORECAST...HAVE MAINTAINED DRY
CONDITIONS TONIGHT AND FOR MOST LOCALES FRI MORNING. STILL APPEARS
THAT ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL OCCUR MAINLY EAST OF TUCSON
FRIDAY AFTERNOON. HAVE MADE SOME ADDITIONAL MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO THE
GRIDDED DATA POPS TO DEPICT THE BEST TIME PERIOD FOR PRECIP TO OCCUR
FRI EVENING. MOST NWP MODELS FAVOR SANTA CRUZ/SRN COCHISE COUNTIES
FOR THE BEST CHANCE OF PRECIP.

GIVEN THE RAPID PROGRESSION OF THIS SYSTEM AND THE LACK OF
SIGNIFICANT LOWER LEVEL MOISTURE...LIQUID AMOUNTS SHOULD BE QUITE
LIGHT. SNOW LEVELS BY FRI EVENING SHOULD GENERALLY BE NEAR 7000
FEET...AND SNOW ACCUMULATIONS SHOULD BE LIMITED TO ONLY AN INCH OR
SO ACROSS THE HIGHEST PEAKS. ISOLATED SHOWERS SHOULD CONTINUE LATE
FRI NIGHT ACROSS FAR SERN SECTIONS. DRY CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL SAT
BEHIND THIS SYSTEM.

THE NEXT SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL THEN MOVE RAPIDLY SEWD ACROSS THE
CENTRAL ROCKIES SUN. A TIGHT MID-LEVEL GRADIENT WILL PRODUCE GUSTY
WLY/NWLY WINDS SUN. THE ORIENTATION OF THE MID-LEVEL GRADIENT FAVORS
THE UPPER GILA VALLEY WITH THE STRONGER WINDS. HAVE OPTED FOR DRY
CONDITIONS MON-THUR AS A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS EITHER NEAR
THE WEST COAST OR OVER THE WRN CONUS.

HIGH TEMPS FRI WILL BE ABOUT 5 DEGS OR SO COOLER VERSUS TEMPS
ACHIEVED THIS AFTERNOON. EXPECT NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE IN DAYTIME
TEMPS SAT-MON FOLLOWED BY A GRADUAL WARMING TREND TUE-THUR.

&&

.TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...YOUTUBE...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/TUCSON

DISCUSSION...FRENCH
PREV DISCUSSION...FRANCIS/CANTIN








000
FXUS65 KTWC 210418
AFDTWC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ
915 PM MST THU NOV 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE NEAR THE INTERNATIONAL
BORDER FRIDAY AFTERNOON INTO FRIDAY NIGHT. THIS SYSTEM WILL BRING
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED VALLEY RAIN AND MOUNTAIN SNOW SHOWERS. LIGHT
PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS WILL BE THE RULE. DRY CONDITIONS WILL THEN
PREVAIL THIS WEEKEND INTO THANKSGIVING DAY. EXPECT COOLER DAYTIME
TEMPERATURES THIS WEEKEND FOLLOWED BY A WARMING TREND BY
THANKSGIVING DAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...21/04Z SFC TEMPS ACROSS SRN AZ GENERALLY RANGED FROM
THE 40S AND 50S AT LOW ELEVATIONS TO THE UPPER 30S IN THE MOUNTAINS.
STILL QUITE DRY TONIGHT WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE TEENS AND LOW 20S.
SCT-BKN MOSTLY HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS HAVE BEEN INCREASING IN COVERAGE
AND THICKNESS OVER THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS IN ADVANCE OF A DEEPENING
UPPER LEVEL TROF. THIS SYSTEM WILL MOVE SEWD INTO FAR SWRN AZ MIDDAY
FRI...AND INTO NERN SONORA FRI NIGHT. EXPECT CLOUD COVER TO CONTINUE
TO INCREASE WITH CLOUD BASES LOWERING THROUGHOUT THE DAY FRIDAY.
21/00Z GFS ALONG WITH THE LATEST SREF SUGGEST THE BEST CHANCES OF
PRECIP WILL BE ALONG THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER AFTER 22/00Z. HAVE
DONE A QUICK UPDATE TO LOWER POPS AREA WIDE FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND
INCREASE THEM FRIDAY EVENING...ESPECIALLY NEAR THE INTERNATIONAL
BORDER OF COCHISE AND SANTA CRUZ COUNTIES. WITH GFS/NAM BUFR
SOUNDINGS COOLING MID-LVL TEMPS DOWN 5-10 DEGS 24 HOURS FROM
NOW...CANNOT RULE OUT A RUMBLE OF THUNDER OR TWO. THEREFORE HAVE
ADDED IN A SLIGHT CHANCE OF TSTORMS FOR SRN PORTIONS OF COCHISE AND
SANTA CRUZ COUNTIES FRIDAY NIGHT. EXPECT PRECIP TO BE CLEAR OF THE
AREA BY MID-MORNING ON SATURDAY. THE REST OF THE FORECAST LOOKS TO
BE ON TRACK AT THIS TIME. FOR ADDITIONAL DETAILS...PLEASE SEE THE
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION BELOW.

&&

.AVIATION...VALID THRU 22/06Z.
AN APPROACHING WEATHER SYSTEM WILL SPREAD INCREASING HIGH LEVEL
CLOUDINESS OVER THE REGION THROUGH FRIDAY. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL
SLOWLY BE ON THE INCREASE WITH LOWER CLOUDS INCREASING MID DAY
FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY EVENING. SHOWERS MAY IMPACT TERMINAL AREAS
ESPECIALLY AFTER 22/00Z. THIS WEATHER SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO BE EAST
OF THE AREA BY EARLY SATURDAY. VFR CONDITIONS ARE ANTICIPATED FOR
MOST LOCALES THROUGHOUT THE EVENT. WINDS WILL GENERALLY REMAIN LESS
THAN 10 KNOTS WITH SOME AFTERNOON GUSTINESS POSSIBLE. AVIATION
DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR TAF AMENDMENTS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BRING ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS WITH PERHAPS A FEW MOUNTAIN SNOW SHOWERS LATE
FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND FRIDAY NIGHT. CANNOT RULE OUT A RUMBLE OF
THUNDER NEAR THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER. DRY CONDITIONS WILL THEN
PREVAIL THIS WEEKEND THROUGH THANKSGIVING DAY. ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM PASSING TO THE NORTH OF THE REGION SUNDAY WILL BRING GUSTY
WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS TO THE AREA. THE UPPER GILA VALLEY MAY SEE
WINDS OF 10-15 MPH WITH GUSTS OF 25-30 MPH. SLIGHTLY ELEVATED
EASTERLY WINDS ARE EXPECTED TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...FOR THE OFFICIAL FORECAST...HAVE MAINTAINED DRY
CONDITIONS TONIGHT AND FOR MOST LOCALES FRI MORNING. STILL APPEARS
THAT ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL OCCUR MAINLY EAST OF TUCSON
FRIDAY AFTERNOON. HAVE MADE SOME ADDITIONAL MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO THE
GRIDDED DATA POPS TO DEPICT THE BEST TIME PERIOD FOR PRECIP TO OCCUR
FRI EVENING. MOST NWP MODELS FAVOR SANTA CRUZ/SRN COCHISE COUNTIES
FOR THE BEST CHANCE OF PRECIP.

GIVEN THE RAPID PROGRESSION OF THIS SYSTEM AND THE LACK OF
SIGNIFICANT LOWER LEVEL MOISTURE...LIQUID AMOUNTS SHOULD BE QUITE
LIGHT. SNOW LEVELS BY FRI EVENING SHOULD GENERALLY BE NEAR 7000
FEET...AND SNOW ACCUMULATIONS SHOULD BE LIMITED TO ONLY AN INCH OR
SO ACROSS THE HIGHEST PEAKS. ISOLATED SHOWERS SHOULD CONTINUE LATE
FRI NIGHT ACROSS FAR SERN SECTIONS. DRY CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL SAT
BEHIND THIS SYSTEM.

THE NEXT SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL THEN MOVE RAPIDLY SEWD ACROSS THE
CENTRAL ROCKIES SUN. A TIGHT MID-LEVEL GRADIENT WILL PRODUCE GUSTY
WLY/NWLY WINDS SUN. THE ORIENTATION OF THE MID-LEVEL GRADIENT FAVORS
THE UPPER GILA VALLEY WITH THE STRONGER WINDS. HAVE OPTED FOR DRY
CONDITIONS MON-THUR AS A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS EITHER NEAR
THE WEST COAST OR OVER THE WRN CONUS.

HIGH TEMPS FRI WILL BE ABOUT 5 DEGS OR SO COOLER VERSUS TEMPS
ACHIEVED THIS AFTERNOON. EXPECT NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE IN DAYTIME
TEMPS SAT-MON FOLLOWED BY A GRADUAL WARMING TREND TUE-THUR.

&&

.TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...YOUTUBE...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/TUCSON

DISCUSSION...FRENCH
PREV DISCUSSION...FRANCIS/CANTIN








000
FXUS65 KFGZ 210401
AFDFGZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ
900 PM MST THU NOV 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...A WEAK PACIFIC LOW WILL MOVE THROUGH CALIFORNIA TOWARDS
ARIZONA THIS EVENING. EXPECT INCREASING CLOUDS ON FRIDAY AND A FEW
RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS WITH ONLY LIGHT ACCUMULATION AMOUNTS. ON
SATURDAY NIGHT ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO ARIZONA FROM THE
NORTH BRINGING BREEZY NORTHERLY WINDS AND COLDER TEMPERATURES
LASTING THROUGH MONDAY. A STRONG HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL BUILD IN
OVER THE WEST COAST WITH A WARMING TREND IN OUR TEMPERATURES AND DRY
WEATHER CONDITIONS LASTING THROUGH THURSDAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...A WEAK PACIFIC LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER CENTRAL
CALIFORNIA IS MOVING TOWARDS ARIZONA THIS EVENING. BY FRIDAY...
EXPECT INCREASING CLOUDS WITH FAIR CHANCES FOR LIGHT RAIN AND SNOW
SHOWERS ACROSS NORTHWESTERN ARIZONA AND ALONG PORTIONS OF THE
MOGOLLON RIM REGION (FLAGSTAFF TO THE WHITE MOUNTAINS)...WITH ONLY
SLIGHT CHANCES FOR SHOWERS EXPECTED ELSEWHERE. SNOW LEVELS WILL
SLOWLY FALL THROUGH THE DAY DOWN TO THE 6500 TO 7000 FEET ELEVATION
RANGE BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON. CHANCES FOR SHOWERS WILL DIMINISH RAPIDLY
AROUND SUNSET AS UPPER LEVEL HEIGHTS RISE AND THE LOW CENTER MOVES
SOUTH INTO MEXICO.

SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY...EXPECT MILD WEATHER CONDITIONS ON SATURDAY
AHEAD OF A DRY COLD FRONT ARRIVING SATURDAY NIGHT. COLDER
TEMPERATURES WILL MOVE IN BEHIND THIS FRONTAL ZONE ALONG WITH BREEZY
NORTHERLY WINDS. HIGH TEMPERATURES ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY ARE FORECAST
TO RUN 5 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.

TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE BUILDING ALONG THE
WEST COAST WILL KEEP ARIZONA IN A DRY WEATHER PATTERN WITH
SEASONABLY MILD TEMPERATURES FORECAST TO LAST THROUGH THURSDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 06Z PACKAGE...EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT.
AN APPROACHING PACIFIC LOW WILL BRING INCREASING CLOUD COVER AND
CHANCES FOR A FEW RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS BY FRIDAY MORNING. SNOW
LEVELS WILL DECREASE TO AROUND 6500-7000 FT MSL. CONDITIONS SHOULD
REMAIN PREDOMINANTLY VFR THROUGH FRIDAY AFTERNOON WITH WIDELY
SCATTERED MVFR OVER MOUNTAIN AREAS AT OR ABOVE 6500 FEET. AVIATION
DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDMENTS.

&&

.FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC.........BOHLIN
AVIATION.......BOHLIN

FOR NORTHERN ARIZONA WEATHER INFORMATION VISIT
WEATHER.GOV/FLAGSTAFF






000
FXUS65 KFGZ 210401
AFDFGZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ
900 PM MST THU NOV 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...A WEAK PACIFIC LOW WILL MOVE THROUGH CALIFORNIA TOWARDS
ARIZONA THIS EVENING. EXPECT INCREASING CLOUDS ON FRIDAY AND A FEW
RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS WITH ONLY LIGHT ACCUMULATION AMOUNTS. ON
SATURDAY NIGHT ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO ARIZONA FROM THE
NORTH BRINGING BREEZY NORTHERLY WINDS AND COLDER TEMPERATURES
LASTING THROUGH MONDAY. A STRONG HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL BUILD IN
OVER THE WEST COAST WITH A WARMING TREND IN OUR TEMPERATURES AND DRY
WEATHER CONDITIONS LASTING THROUGH THURSDAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...A WEAK PACIFIC LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER CENTRAL
CALIFORNIA IS MOVING TOWARDS ARIZONA THIS EVENING. BY FRIDAY...
EXPECT INCREASING CLOUDS WITH FAIR CHANCES FOR LIGHT RAIN AND SNOW
SHOWERS ACROSS NORTHWESTERN ARIZONA AND ALONG PORTIONS OF THE
MOGOLLON RIM REGION (FLAGSTAFF TO THE WHITE MOUNTAINS)...WITH ONLY
SLIGHT CHANCES FOR SHOWERS EXPECTED ELSEWHERE. SNOW LEVELS WILL
SLOWLY FALL THROUGH THE DAY DOWN TO THE 6500 TO 7000 FEET ELEVATION
RANGE BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON. CHANCES FOR SHOWERS WILL DIMINISH RAPIDLY
AROUND SUNSET AS UPPER LEVEL HEIGHTS RISE AND THE LOW CENTER MOVES
SOUTH INTO MEXICO.

SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY...EXPECT MILD WEATHER CONDITIONS ON SATURDAY
AHEAD OF A DRY COLD FRONT ARRIVING SATURDAY NIGHT. COLDER
TEMPERATURES WILL MOVE IN BEHIND THIS FRONTAL ZONE ALONG WITH BREEZY
NORTHERLY WINDS. HIGH TEMPERATURES ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY ARE FORECAST
TO RUN 5 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.

TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE BUILDING ALONG THE
WEST COAST WILL KEEP ARIZONA IN A DRY WEATHER PATTERN WITH
SEASONABLY MILD TEMPERATURES FORECAST TO LAST THROUGH THURSDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 06Z PACKAGE...EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT.
AN APPROACHING PACIFIC LOW WILL BRING INCREASING CLOUD COVER AND
CHANCES FOR A FEW RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS BY FRIDAY MORNING. SNOW
LEVELS WILL DECREASE TO AROUND 6500-7000 FT MSL. CONDITIONS SHOULD
REMAIN PREDOMINANTLY VFR THROUGH FRIDAY AFTERNOON WITH WIDELY
SCATTERED MVFR OVER MOUNTAIN AREAS AT OR ABOVE 6500 FEET. AVIATION
DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDMENTS.

&&

.FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC.........BOHLIN
AVIATION.......BOHLIN

FOR NORTHERN ARIZONA WEATHER INFORMATION VISIT
WEATHER.GOV/FLAGSTAFF





000
FXUS65 KPSR 210352
AFDPSR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PHOENIX AZ
850 PM MST THU NOV 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE INCREASING TONIGHT AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
APPROACHES THE DESERT SOUTHWEST. THIS WEATHER SYSTEM WILL MOVE
THROUGH THE REGION FRIDAY...BRINGING MORE CLOUDY SKIES AND COOLER
TEMPERATURES ALONG WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS TO HIGHER TERRAIN
COMMUNITIES. MOSTLY CLEAR AND DRY CONDITIONS WITH NEAR NORMAL
TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN PLACE OVER THE WEEKEND...AND LINGER INTO
NEXT WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
A WELL DEFINED SHORTWAVE UNDERCUTTING THE LONGER WAVELENGTH WESTERN
NORTH AMERICAN BLOCKING RIDGE WAS CENTERED NEAR KOAK THIS
EVENING...DIVING SOUTHEAST TOWARDS THE FORECAST AREA. WHILE
MID/UPPER TROPOSPHERIC DYNAMICS LOOK IMPRESSIVE PER WV
IMAGERY...THERE IS ALSO A COMPLETE LACK OF MOISTURE FEEDING INTO
THIS SYSTEM FROM THE EAST PACIFIC. GIVEN THE OVER LAND TRAJECTORIES
FROM THIS POINT FORWARD...IT WILL LIE SOLELY WITH CAA ALOFT
SQUEEZING OUT EVERY BIT OF ATTENDANT MOISTURE TO PRODUCE ANY
PRECIPITATION WITHIN THE FORECAST AREA. 00Z MODEL
DATA...GUIDANCE/FORECAST SOUNDING PACKAGES ALONG WITH 12Z/18Z HIGH
RESOLUTION OUTPUT PROVIDES GOOD CONFIDENCE THAT MOST OF THE REGION
WILL NOT SEE ANYTHING MORE THAN VIRGA...AND HAVE CUT POPS FOR LOWER
ELEVATION LOCATIONS FRIDAY.

IN THE SHORT TERM...DESPITE INCREASING AND THICKENING HIGH CLOUD
COVER...TEMPERATURES WERE TRENDING SEVERAL DEGREES LOWER THAN
FORECAST. FEEL FORECAST LOWS 5F-10F WARMER THAN THIS MORNING ARE
STILL VALID GIVEN THE CLOUD COVER...AND HAVE ONLY ADJUSTED THE RATE
OF COOLING TO ACCOUNT FOR RECENT TRENDS. OTHERWISE...HAVE ADDED SOME
TEMPORAL DETAIL TO OTHER SALIENT GRIDDED DATA FOR THE REMAINDER OF
THE NIGHT TO CAPTURE RECENT TRENDS.

&&

.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
/242 PM MST THU NOV 20 2014/
THE CENTER OF THE LOW IS PROGGED TO DROP AND MOVE ACROSS SOUTHERN
CALIFORNIA BY TOMORROW MORNING...AND A SIGNIFICANT LAYER OF MID AND
HIGH CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO OVERSPREAD OUR FORECAST AREA...ALONG
WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN AREAS OF
SOUTHWEST ARIZONA AND SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA...MAINLY OVER JTNP. THE
CENTER OF THE LOW WILL EVENTUALLY TRACK EAST ALONG THE INTERNATIONAL
BORDER...PLACING THE BEST DYNAMICS INTO SOUTHERN AND SOUTHEAST
ARIZONA DURING THE DAY FRIDAY.

MOISTURE IS RATHER LIMITED WITH THIS SYSTEM AS IT MOVES THROUGH THE
STATE...WITH FORECAST PRECIPITABLE WATER ONLY NUDGING ABOVE 0.50IN
FOR A BRIEF PERIOD. AS SUCH...CHANCES FOR DECENT RAINFALL ARE NOT
VERY HIGH AND QPF WILL BE LOW...MOSTLY LESS THAN ONE TENTH OF AN
INCH IN ISOLATED SPOTS WHERE IT DOES RAIN. THE BEST PRECIPITATION
CHANCES WILL FOCUS OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN AREAS EAST OF PHOENIX.
GIVEN THE INCREASED MID AND HIGH CLOUDINESS ON FRIDAY...HIGH TEMPS
WILL FALL OFF SEVERAL DEGREES WITH THE CENTRAL ARIZONA DESERTS
LOWERING INTO THE UPPER 60S.

THE LOW IS FORECAST TO DIVE QUICKLY TO THE SOUTHEAST AND EXIT THE
STATE OVERNIGHT FRIDAY NIGHT LEAVING BEHIND A COOL DRY SUBSIDENT
NORTHWEST FLOW. UNDER MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES...EXPECT LITTLE CHANGE IN
HIGH TEMPS SATURDAY...AND READINGS WILL STAY SLIGHTLY BELOW SEASONAL
NORMALS AT MANY SITES. THE EASTERN PACIFIC RIDGE WILL BEGIN TO
AMPLIFY OFF THE WEST COAST SUNDAY...WHILE ANOTHER SHORT WAVE WILL
RIDE DOWN THE EASTERN PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE AND BRUSH THROUGH
NORTHEAST ARIZONA/4-CORNERS AREA. THIS SYSTEM WILL BE DRY...BRINGING
LITTLE CLOUD COVER BUT IT WILL IMPORT ANOTHER SHOT OF COOLER AIR...
SO FORECAST HIGHS ON MONDAY WILL DROP INTO THE MID TO UPPER 60S.

DRY NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL BUILD INTO THE AREA TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY FOR A SLOW WARMING TREND AND NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES
RIGHT BEFORE THE THANKSGIVING DAY HOLIDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...
SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA INCLUDING KPHX...KIWA...AND KSDL...
MID/HIGH CLOUDS WILL INCREASE AND LOWER THROUGH FRIDAY
AFTERNOON...WITH CIGS FALLING AS LOW AS 10K FT AFTER 18Z FRIDAY.
EXPECT EXTENSIVE VIRGA THROUGHOUT THE DAY...BUT AT MOST SPRINKLES
REACHING THE AERODROME TARMACS. SFC WINDS WILL RETAIN A LIGHT
EASTERLY COMPONENT UNTIL FROPA LATE FRIDAY AFTERNOON.


SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA AND SOUTHWEST ARIZONA...INCLUDING KIPL AND
KBLH...
HIGH CLOUDS WILL GRADUALLY CLEAR FRIDAY MORNING...HOWEVER FEW-SCT
5K-6K FT DECK MAY BRIEFLY DEVELOP BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON. BIGGEST
AVIATION IMPACT WILL BE TIMING OF WIND SHIFT WITH FRONTAL
PASSAGE...AND MAGNITUDE OF POST FRONTAL WINDS. COULD SEE A SHALLOW
DENSITY CURRENT PRODUCE A BRIEF PERIOD OF GUSTY WEST WINDS AT KIPL
FRIDAY MORNING...WITH THE TREND TOWARDS A STEADY NW WIND AOB 15KT BY
THE AFTERNOON. GRADIENT AT KBLH WILL BE WEAKER YIELDING LOWER WIND
SPEEDS.

AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDED TAFS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS CAN BE EXPECTED SATURDAY BEHIND A
DEPARTING UPPER LOW. HUMIDITIES WILL TREND DOWNWARD SIGNIFICANTLY
SUNDAY AS DRY AIR FROM THE NORTH PUSHES THROUGH THE AREA. BREEZY TO
WINDY CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED AS WELL OVER SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA
AND SOUTHWEST ARIZONA. HOWEVER...WIND SPEEDS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO
REACH CRITICAL THRESHOLDS. EXPECT WINDS SUNDAY TO BE LIGHTER OVER
SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA. LINGERING BREEZINESS CONTINUES MONDAY AND
EXPANDS SOMEWHAT INTO SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA. MEANWHILE...EXPECT
RIDGETOPS TO BE WINDY AND QUITE A BIT STRONGER AT NIGHT THAN THE
VALLEY FLOORS. TEMPERATURES WILL BE A BIT BELOW NORMAL OVERALL. DRY
CONDITIONS CONTINUE THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

&&

.PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

AZ...NONE.

CA...NONE.

&&

$$

VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/PHOENIX

DISCUSSION...MO/MEYERS/CB
AVIATION...MO
FIRE WEATHER...AJ







000
FXUS65 KPSR 210352
AFDPSR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PHOENIX AZ
850 PM MST THU NOV 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE INCREASING TONIGHT AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
APPROACHES THE DESERT SOUTHWEST. THIS WEATHER SYSTEM WILL MOVE
THROUGH THE REGION FRIDAY...BRINGING MORE CLOUDY SKIES AND COOLER
TEMPERATURES ALONG WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS TO HIGHER TERRAIN
COMMUNITIES. MOSTLY CLEAR AND DRY CONDITIONS WITH NEAR NORMAL
TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN PLACE OVER THE WEEKEND...AND LINGER INTO
NEXT WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
A WELL DEFINED SHORTWAVE UNDERCUTTING THE LONGER WAVELENGTH WESTERN
NORTH AMERICAN BLOCKING RIDGE WAS CENTERED NEAR KOAK THIS
EVENING...DIVING SOUTHEAST TOWARDS THE FORECAST AREA. WHILE
MID/UPPER TROPOSPHERIC DYNAMICS LOOK IMPRESSIVE PER WV
IMAGERY...THERE IS ALSO A COMPLETE LACK OF MOISTURE FEEDING INTO
THIS SYSTEM FROM THE EAST PACIFIC. GIVEN THE OVER LAND TRAJECTORIES
FROM THIS POINT FORWARD...IT WILL LIE SOLELY WITH CAA ALOFT
SQUEEZING OUT EVERY BIT OF ATTENDANT MOISTURE TO PRODUCE ANY
PRECIPITATION WITHIN THE FORECAST AREA. 00Z MODEL
DATA...GUIDANCE/FORECAST SOUNDING PACKAGES ALONG WITH 12Z/18Z HIGH
RESOLUTION OUTPUT PROVIDES GOOD CONFIDENCE THAT MOST OF THE REGION
WILL NOT SEE ANYTHING MORE THAN VIRGA...AND HAVE CUT POPS FOR LOWER
ELEVATION LOCATIONS FRIDAY.

IN THE SHORT TERM...DESPITE INCREASING AND THICKENING HIGH CLOUD
COVER...TEMPERATURES WERE TRENDING SEVERAL DEGREES LOWER THAN
FORECAST. FEEL FORECAST LOWS 5F-10F WARMER THAN THIS MORNING ARE
STILL VALID GIVEN THE CLOUD COVER...AND HAVE ONLY ADJUSTED THE RATE
OF COOLING TO ACCOUNT FOR RECENT TRENDS. OTHERWISE...HAVE ADDED SOME
TEMPORAL DETAIL TO OTHER SALIENT GRIDDED DATA FOR THE REMAINDER OF
THE NIGHT TO CAPTURE RECENT TRENDS.

&&

.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
/242 PM MST THU NOV 20 2014/
THE CENTER OF THE LOW IS PROGGED TO DROP AND MOVE ACROSS SOUTHERN
CALIFORNIA BY TOMORROW MORNING...AND A SIGNIFICANT LAYER OF MID AND
HIGH CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO OVERSPREAD OUR FORECAST AREA...ALONG
WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN AREAS OF
SOUTHWEST ARIZONA AND SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA...MAINLY OVER JTNP. THE
CENTER OF THE LOW WILL EVENTUALLY TRACK EAST ALONG THE INTERNATIONAL
BORDER...PLACING THE BEST DYNAMICS INTO SOUTHERN AND SOUTHEAST
ARIZONA DURING THE DAY FRIDAY.

MOISTURE IS RATHER LIMITED WITH THIS SYSTEM AS IT MOVES THROUGH THE
STATE...WITH FORECAST PRECIPITABLE WATER ONLY NUDGING ABOVE 0.50IN
FOR A BRIEF PERIOD. AS SUCH...CHANCES FOR DECENT RAINFALL ARE NOT
VERY HIGH AND QPF WILL BE LOW...MOSTLY LESS THAN ONE TENTH OF AN
INCH IN ISOLATED SPOTS WHERE IT DOES RAIN. THE BEST PRECIPITATION
CHANCES WILL FOCUS OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN AREAS EAST OF PHOENIX.
GIVEN THE INCREASED MID AND HIGH CLOUDINESS ON FRIDAY...HIGH TEMPS
WILL FALL OFF SEVERAL DEGREES WITH THE CENTRAL ARIZONA DESERTS
LOWERING INTO THE UPPER 60S.

THE LOW IS FORECAST TO DIVE QUICKLY TO THE SOUTHEAST AND EXIT THE
STATE OVERNIGHT FRIDAY NIGHT LEAVING BEHIND A COOL DRY SUBSIDENT
NORTHWEST FLOW. UNDER MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES...EXPECT LITTLE CHANGE IN
HIGH TEMPS SATURDAY...AND READINGS WILL STAY SLIGHTLY BELOW SEASONAL
NORMALS AT MANY SITES. THE EASTERN PACIFIC RIDGE WILL BEGIN TO
AMPLIFY OFF THE WEST COAST SUNDAY...WHILE ANOTHER SHORT WAVE WILL
RIDE DOWN THE EASTERN PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE AND BRUSH THROUGH
NORTHEAST ARIZONA/4-CORNERS AREA. THIS SYSTEM WILL BE DRY...BRINGING
LITTLE CLOUD COVER BUT IT WILL IMPORT ANOTHER SHOT OF COOLER AIR...
SO FORECAST HIGHS ON MONDAY WILL DROP INTO THE MID TO UPPER 60S.

DRY NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL BUILD INTO THE AREA TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY FOR A SLOW WARMING TREND AND NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES
RIGHT BEFORE THE THANKSGIVING DAY HOLIDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...
SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA INCLUDING KPHX...KIWA...AND KSDL...
MID/HIGH CLOUDS WILL INCREASE AND LOWER THROUGH FRIDAY
AFTERNOON...WITH CIGS FALLING AS LOW AS 10K FT AFTER 18Z FRIDAY.
EXPECT EXTENSIVE VIRGA THROUGHOUT THE DAY...BUT AT MOST SPRINKLES
REACHING THE AERODROME TARMACS. SFC WINDS WILL RETAIN A LIGHT
EASTERLY COMPONENT UNTIL FROPA LATE FRIDAY AFTERNOON.


SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA AND SOUTHWEST ARIZONA...INCLUDING KIPL AND
KBLH...
HIGH CLOUDS WILL GRADUALLY CLEAR FRIDAY MORNING...HOWEVER FEW-SCT
5K-6K FT DECK MAY BRIEFLY DEVELOP BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON. BIGGEST
AVIATION IMPACT WILL BE TIMING OF WIND SHIFT WITH FRONTAL
PASSAGE...AND MAGNITUDE OF POST FRONTAL WINDS. COULD SEE A SHALLOW
DENSITY CURRENT PRODUCE A BRIEF PERIOD OF GUSTY WEST WINDS AT KIPL
FRIDAY MORNING...WITH THE TREND TOWARDS A STEADY NW WIND AOB 15KT BY
THE AFTERNOON. GRADIENT AT KBLH WILL BE WEAKER YIELDING LOWER WIND
SPEEDS.

AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDED TAFS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS CAN BE EXPECTED SATURDAY BEHIND A
DEPARTING UPPER LOW. HUMIDITIES WILL TREND DOWNWARD SIGNIFICANTLY
SUNDAY AS DRY AIR FROM THE NORTH PUSHES THROUGH THE AREA. BREEZY TO
WINDY CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED AS WELL OVER SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA
AND SOUTHWEST ARIZONA. HOWEVER...WIND SPEEDS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO
REACH CRITICAL THRESHOLDS. EXPECT WINDS SUNDAY TO BE LIGHTER OVER
SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA. LINGERING BREEZINESS CONTINUES MONDAY AND
EXPANDS SOMEWHAT INTO SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA. MEANWHILE...EXPECT
RIDGETOPS TO BE WINDY AND QUITE A BIT STRONGER AT NIGHT THAN THE
VALLEY FLOORS. TEMPERATURES WILL BE A BIT BELOW NORMAL OVERALL. DRY
CONDITIONS CONTINUE THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

&&

.PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

AZ...NONE.

CA...NONE.

&&

$$

VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/PHOENIX

DISCUSSION...MO/MEYERS/CB
AVIATION...MO
FIRE WEATHER...AJ







000
FXUS65 KPSR 210352
AFDPSR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PHOENIX AZ
850 PM MST THU NOV 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE INCREASING TONIGHT AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
APPROACHES THE DESERT SOUTHWEST. THIS WEATHER SYSTEM WILL MOVE
THROUGH THE REGION FRIDAY...BRINGING MORE CLOUDY SKIES AND COOLER
TEMPERATURES ALONG WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS TO HIGHER TERRAIN
COMMUNITIES. MOSTLY CLEAR AND DRY CONDITIONS WITH NEAR NORMAL
TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN PLACE OVER THE WEEKEND...AND LINGER INTO
NEXT WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
A WELL DEFINED SHORTWAVE UNDERCUTTING THE LONGER WAVELENGTH WESTERN
NORTH AMERICAN BLOCKING RIDGE WAS CENTERED NEAR KOAK THIS
EVENING...DIVING SOUTHEAST TOWARDS THE FORECAST AREA. WHILE
MID/UPPER TROPOSPHERIC DYNAMICS LOOK IMPRESSIVE PER WV
IMAGERY...THERE IS ALSO A COMPLETE LACK OF MOISTURE FEEDING INTO
THIS SYSTEM FROM THE EAST PACIFIC. GIVEN THE OVER LAND TRAJECTORIES
FROM THIS POINT FORWARD...IT WILL LIE SOLELY WITH CAA ALOFT
SQUEEZING OUT EVERY BIT OF ATTENDANT MOISTURE TO PRODUCE ANY
PRECIPITATION WITHIN THE FORECAST AREA. 00Z MODEL
DATA...GUIDANCE/FORECAST SOUNDING PACKAGES ALONG WITH 12Z/18Z HIGH
RESOLUTION OUTPUT PROVIDES GOOD CONFIDENCE THAT MOST OF THE REGION
WILL NOT SEE ANYTHING MORE THAN VIRGA...AND HAVE CUT POPS FOR LOWER
ELEVATION LOCATIONS FRIDAY.

IN THE SHORT TERM...DESPITE INCREASING AND THICKENING HIGH CLOUD
COVER...TEMPERATURES WERE TRENDING SEVERAL DEGREES LOWER THAN
FORECAST. FEEL FORECAST LOWS 5F-10F WARMER THAN THIS MORNING ARE
STILL VALID GIVEN THE CLOUD COVER...AND HAVE ONLY ADJUSTED THE RATE
OF COOLING TO ACCOUNT FOR RECENT TRENDS. OTHERWISE...HAVE ADDED SOME
TEMPORAL DETAIL TO OTHER SALIENT GRIDDED DATA FOR THE REMAINDER OF
THE NIGHT TO CAPTURE RECENT TRENDS.

&&

.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
/242 PM MST THU NOV 20 2014/
THE CENTER OF THE LOW IS PROGGED TO DROP AND MOVE ACROSS SOUTHERN
CALIFORNIA BY TOMORROW MORNING...AND A SIGNIFICANT LAYER OF MID AND
HIGH CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO OVERSPREAD OUR FORECAST AREA...ALONG
WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN AREAS OF
SOUTHWEST ARIZONA AND SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA...MAINLY OVER JTNP. THE
CENTER OF THE LOW WILL EVENTUALLY TRACK EAST ALONG THE INTERNATIONAL
BORDER...PLACING THE BEST DYNAMICS INTO SOUTHERN AND SOUTHEAST
ARIZONA DURING THE DAY FRIDAY.

MOISTURE IS RATHER LIMITED WITH THIS SYSTEM AS IT MOVES THROUGH THE
STATE...WITH FORECAST PRECIPITABLE WATER ONLY NUDGING ABOVE 0.50IN
FOR A BRIEF PERIOD. AS SUCH...CHANCES FOR DECENT RAINFALL ARE NOT
VERY HIGH AND QPF WILL BE LOW...MOSTLY LESS THAN ONE TENTH OF AN
INCH IN ISOLATED SPOTS WHERE IT DOES RAIN. THE BEST PRECIPITATION
CHANCES WILL FOCUS OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN AREAS EAST OF PHOENIX.
GIVEN THE INCREASED MID AND HIGH CLOUDINESS ON FRIDAY...HIGH TEMPS
WILL FALL OFF SEVERAL DEGREES WITH THE CENTRAL ARIZONA DESERTS
LOWERING INTO THE UPPER 60S.

THE LOW IS FORECAST TO DIVE QUICKLY TO THE SOUTHEAST AND EXIT THE
STATE OVERNIGHT FRIDAY NIGHT LEAVING BEHIND A COOL DRY SUBSIDENT
NORTHWEST FLOW. UNDER MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES...EXPECT LITTLE CHANGE IN
HIGH TEMPS SATURDAY...AND READINGS WILL STAY SLIGHTLY BELOW SEASONAL
NORMALS AT MANY SITES. THE EASTERN PACIFIC RIDGE WILL BEGIN TO
AMPLIFY OFF THE WEST COAST SUNDAY...WHILE ANOTHER SHORT WAVE WILL
RIDE DOWN THE EASTERN PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE AND BRUSH THROUGH
NORTHEAST ARIZONA/4-CORNERS AREA. THIS SYSTEM WILL BE DRY...BRINGING
LITTLE CLOUD COVER BUT IT WILL IMPORT ANOTHER SHOT OF COOLER AIR...
SO FORECAST HIGHS ON MONDAY WILL DROP INTO THE MID TO UPPER 60S.

DRY NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL BUILD INTO THE AREA TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY FOR A SLOW WARMING TREND AND NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES
RIGHT BEFORE THE THANKSGIVING DAY HOLIDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...
SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA INCLUDING KPHX...KIWA...AND KSDL...
MID/HIGH CLOUDS WILL INCREASE AND LOWER THROUGH FRIDAY
AFTERNOON...WITH CIGS FALLING AS LOW AS 10K FT AFTER 18Z FRIDAY.
EXPECT EXTENSIVE VIRGA THROUGHOUT THE DAY...BUT AT MOST SPRINKLES
REACHING THE AERODROME TARMACS. SFC WINDS WILL RETAIN A LIGHT
EASTERLY COMPONENT UNTIL FROPA LATE FRIDAY AFTERNOON.


SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA AND SOUTHWEST ARIZONA...INCLUDING KIPL AND
KBLH...
HIGH CLOUDS WILL GRADUALLY CLEAR FRIDAY MORNING...HOWEVER FEW-SCT
5K-6K FT DECK MAY BRIEFLY DEVELOP BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON. BIGGEST
AVIATION IMPACT WILL BE TIMING OF WIND SHIFT WITH FRONTAL
PASSAGE...AND MAGNITUDE OF POST FRONTAL WINDS. COULD SEE A SHALLOW
DENSITY CURRENT PRODUCE A BRIEF PERIOD OF GUSTY WEST WINDS AT KIPL
FRIDAY MORNING...WITH THE TREND TOWARDS A STEADY NW WIND AOB 15KT BY
THE AFTERNOON. GRADIENT AT KBLH WILL BE WEAKER YIELDING LOWER WIND
SPEEDS.

AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDED TAFS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS CAN BE EXPECTED SATURDAY BEHIND A
DEPARTING UPPER LOW. HUMIDITIES WILL TREND DOWNWARD SIGNIFICANTLY
SUNDAY AS DRY AIR FROM THE NORTH PUSHES THROUGH THE AREA. BREEZY TO
WINDY CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED AS WELL OVER SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA
AND SOUTHWEST ARIZONA. HOWEVER...WIND SPEEDS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO
REACH CRITICAL THRESHOLDS. EXPECT WINDS SUNDAY TO BE LIGHTER OVER
SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA. LINGERING BREEZINESS CONTINUES MONDAY AND
EXPANDS SOMEWHAT INTO SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA. MEANWHILE...EXPECT
RIDGETOPS TO BE WINDY AND QUITE A BIT STRONGER AT NIGHT THAN THE
VALLEY FLOORS. TEMPERATURES WILL BE A BIT BELOW NORMAL OVERALL. DRY
CONDITIONS CONTINUE THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

&&

.PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

AZ...NONE.

CA...NONE.

&&

$$

VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/PHOENIX

DISCUSSION...MO/MEYERS/CB
AVIATION...MO
FIRE WEATHER...AJ







000
FXUS65 KPSR 210352
AFDPSR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PHOENIX AZ
850 PM MST THU NOV 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE INCREASING TONIGHT AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
APPROACHES THE DESERT SOUTHWEST. THIS WEATHER SYSTEM WILL MOVE
THROUGH THE REGION FRIDAY...BRINGING MORE CLOUDY SKIES AND COOLER
TEMPERATURES ALONG WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS TO HIGHER TERRAIN
COMMUNITIES. MOSTLY CLEAR AND DRY CONDITIONS WITH NEAR NORMAL
TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN PLACE OVER THE WEEKEND...AND LINGER INTO
NEXT WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
A WELL DEFINED SHORTWAVE UNDERCUTTING THE LONGER WAVELENGTH WESTERN
NORTH AMERICAN BLOCKING RIDGE WAS CENTERED NEAR KOAK THIS
EVENING...DIVING SOUTHEAST TOWARDS THE FORECAST AREA. WHILE
MID/UPPER TROPOSPHERIC DYNAMICS LOOK IMPRESSIVE PER WV
IMAGERY...THERE IS ALSO A COMPLETE LACK OF MOISTURE FEEDING INTO
THIS SYSTEM FROM THE EAST PACIFIC. GIVEN THE OVER LAND TRAJECTORIES
FROM THIS POINT FORWARD...IT WILL LIE SOLELY WITH CAA ALOFT
SQUEEZING OUT EVERY BIT OF ATTENDANT MOISTURE TO PRODUCE ANY
PRECIPITATION WITHIN THE FORECAST AREA. 00Z MODEL
DATA...GUIDANCE/FORECAST SOUNDING PACKAGES ALONG WITH 12Z/18Z HIGH
RESOLUTION OUTPUT PROVIDES GOOD CONFIDENCE THAT MOST OF THE REGION
WILL NOT SEE ANYTHING MORE THAN VIRGA...AND HAVE CUT POPS FOR LOWER
ELEVATION LOCATIONS FRIDAY.

IN THE SHORT TERM...DESPITE INCREASING AND THICKENING HIGH CLOUD
COVER...TEMPERATURES WERE TRENDING SEVERAL DEGREES LOWER THAN
FORECAST. FEEL FORECAST LOWS 5F-10F WARMER THAN THIS MORNING ARE
STILL VALID GIVEN THE CLOUD COVER...AND HAVE ONLY ADJUSTED THE RATE
OF COOLING TO ACCOUNT FOR RECENT TRENDS. OTHERWISE...HAVE ADDED SOME
TEMPORAL DETAIL TO OTHER SALIENT GRIDDED DATA FOR THE REMAINDER OF
THE NIGHT TO CAPTURE RECENT TRENDS.

&&

.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
/242 PM MST THU NOV 20 2014/
THE CENTER OF THE LOW IS PROGGED TO DROP AND MOVE ACROSS SOUTHERN
CALIFORNIA BY TOMORROW MORNING...AND A SIGNIFICANT LAYER OF MID AND
HIGH CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO OVERSPREAD OUR FORECAST AREA...ALONG
WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN AREAS OF
SOUTHWEST ARIZONA AND SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA...MAINLY OVER JTNP. THE
CENTER OF THE LOW WILL EVENTUALLY TRACK EAST ALONG THE INTERNATIONAL
BORDER...PLACING THE BEST DYNAMICS INTO SOUTHERN AND SOUTHEAST
ARIZONA DURING THE DAY FRIDAY.

MOISTURE IS RATHER LIMITED WITH THIS SYSTEM AS IT MOVES THROUGH THE
STATE...WITH FORECAST PRECIPITABLE WATER ONLY NUDGING ABOVE 0.50IN
FOR A BRIEF PERIOD. AS SUCH...CHANCES FOR DECENT RAINFALL ARE NOT
VERY HIGH AND QPF WILL BE LOW...MOSTLY LESS THAN ONE TENTH OF AN
INCH IN ISOLATED SPOTS WHERE IT DOES RAIN. THE BEST PRECIPITATION
CHANCES WILL FOCUS OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN AREAS EAST OF PHOENIX.
GIVEN THE INCREASED MID AND HIGH CLOUDINESS ON FRIDAY...HIGH TEMPS
WILL FALL OFF SEVERAL DEGREES WITH THE CENTRAL ARIZONA DESERTS
LOWERING INTO THE UPPER 60S.

THE LOW IS FORECAST TO DIVE QUICKLY TO THE SOUTHEAST AND EXIT THE
STATE OVERNIGHT FRIDAY NIGHT LEAVING BEHIND A COOL DRY SUBSIDENT
NORTHWEST FLOW. UNDER MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES...EXPECT LITTLE CHANGE IN
HIGH TEMPS SATURDAY...AND READINGS WILL STAY SLIGHTLY BELOW SEASONAL
NORMALS AT MANY SITES. THE EASTERN PACIFIC RIDGE WILL BEGIN TO
AMPLIFY OFF THE WEST COAST SUNDAY...WHILE ANOTHER SHORT WAVE WILL
RIDE DOWN THE EASTERN PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE AND BRUSH THROUGH
NORTHEAST ARIZONA/4-CORNERS AREA. THIS SYSTEM WILL BE DRY...BRINGING
LITTLE CLOUD COVER BUT IT WILL IMPORT ANOTHER SHOT OF COOLER AIR...
SO FORECAST HIGHS ON MONDAY WILL DROP INTO THE MID TO UPPER 60S.

DRY NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL BUILD INTO THE AREA TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY FOR A SLOW WARMING TREND AND NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES
RIGHT BEFORE THE THANKSGIVING DAY HOLIDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...
SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA INCLUDING KPHX...KIWA...AND KSDL...
MID/HIGH CLOUDS WILL INCREASE AND LOWER THROUGH FRIDAY
AFTERNOON...WITH CIGS FALLING AS LOW AS 10K FT AFTER 18Z FRIDAY.
EXPECT EXTENSIVE VIRGA THROUGHOUT THE DAY...BUT AT MOST SPRINKLES
REACHING THE AERODROME TARMACS. SFC WINDS WILL RETAIN A LIGHT
EASTERLY COMPONENT UNTIL FROPA LATE FRIDAY AFTERNOON.


SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA AND SOUTHWEST ARIZONA...INCLUDING KIPL AND
KBLH...
HIGH CLOUDS WILL GRADUALLY CLEAR FRIDAY MORNING...HOWEVER FEW-SCT
5K-6K FT DECK MAY BRIEFLY DEVELOP BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON. BIGGEST
AVIATION IMPACT WILL BE TIMING OF WIND SHIFT WITH FRONTAL
PASSAGE...AND MAGNITUDE OF POST FRONTAL WINDS. COULD SEE A SHALLOW
DENSITY CURRENT PRODUCE A BRIEF PERIOD OF GUSTY WEST WINDS AT KIPL
FRIDAY MORNING...WITH THE TREND TOWARDS A STEADY NW WIND AOB 15KT BY
THE AFTERNOON. GRADIENT AT KBLH WILL BE WEAKER YIELDING LOWER WIND
SPEEDS.

AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDED TAFS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS CAN BE EXPECTED SATURDAY BEHIND A
DEPARTING UPPER LOW. HUMIDITIES WILL TREND DOWNWARD SIGNIFICANTLY
SUNDAY AS DRY AIR FROM THE NORTH PUSHES THROUGH THE AREA. BREEZY TO
WINDY CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED AS WELL OVER SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA
AND SOUTHWEST ARIZONA. HOWEVER...WIND SPEEDS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO
REACH CRITICAL THRESHOLDS. EXPECT WINDS SUNDAY TO BE LIGHTER OVER
SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA. LINGERING BREEZINESS CONTINUES MONDAY AND
EXPANDS SOMEWHAT INTO SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA. MEANWHILE...EXPECT
RIDGETOPS TO BE WINDY AND QUITE A BIT STRONGER AT NIGHT THAN THE
VALLEY FLOORS. TEMPERATURES WILL BE A BIT BELOW NORMAL OVERALL. DRY
CONDITIONS CONTINUE THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

&&

.PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

AZ...NONE.

CA...NONE.

&&

$$

VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/PHOENIX

DISCUSSION...MO/MEYERS/CB
AVIATION...MO
FIRE WEATHER...AJ







000
FXUS65 KPSR 210352
AFDPSR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PHOENIX AZ
850 PM MST THU NOV 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE INCREASING TONIGHT AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
APPROACHES THE DESERT SOUTHWEST. THIS WEATHER SYSTEM WILL MOVE
THROUGH THE REGION FRIDAY...BRINGING MORE CLOUDY SKIES AND COOLER
TEMPERATURES ALONG WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS TO HIGHER TERRAIN
COMMUNITIES. MOSTLY CLEAR AND DRY CONDITIONS WITH NEAR NORMAL
TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN PLACE OVER THE WEEKEND...AND LINGER INTO
NEXT WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
A WELL DEFINED SHORTWAVE UNDERCUTTING THE LONGER WAVELENGTH WESTERN
NORTH AMERICAN BLOCKING RIDGE WAS CENTERED NEAR KOAK THIS
EVENING...DIVING SOUTHEAST TOWARDS THE FORECAST AREA. WHILE
MID/UPPER TROPOSPHERIC DYNAMICS LOOK IMPRESSIVE PER WV
IMAGERY...THERE IS ALSO A COMPLETE LACK OF MOISTURE FEEDING INTO
THIS SYSTEM FROM THE EAST PACIFIC. GIVEN THE OVER LAND TRAJECTORIES
FROM THIS POINT FORWARD...IT WILL LIE SOLELY WITH CAA ALOFT
SQUEEZING OUT EVERY BIT OF ATTENDANT MOISTURE TO PRODUCE ANY
PRECIPITATION WITHIN THE FORECAST AREA. 00Z MODEL
DATA...GUIDANCE/FORECAST SOUNDING PACKAGES ALONG WITH 12Z/18Z HIGH
RESOLUTION OUTPUT PROVIDES GOOD CONFIDENCE THAT MOST OF THE REGION
WILL NOT SEE ANYTHING MORE THAN VIRGA...AND HAVE CUT POPS FOR LOWER
ELEVATION LOCATIONS FRIDAY.

IN THE SHORT TERM...DESPITE INCREASING AND THICKENING HIGH CLOUD
COVER...TEMPERATURES WERE TRENDING SEVERAL DEGREES LOWER THAN
FORECAST. FEEL FORECAST LOWS 5F-10F WARMER THAN THIS MORNING ARE
STILL VALID GIVEN THE CLOUD COVER...AND HAVE ONLY ADJUSTED THE RATE
OF COOLING TO ACCOUNT FOR RECENT TRENDS. OTHERWISE...HAVE ADDED SOME
TEMPORAL DETAIL TO OTHER SALIENT GRIDDED DATA FOR THE REMAINDER OF
THE NIGHT TO CAPTURE RECENT TRENDS.

&&

.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
/242 PM MST THU NOV 20 2014/
THE CENTER OF THE LOW IS PROGGED TO DROP AND MOVE ACROSS SOUTHERN
CALIFORNIA BY TOMORROW MORNING...AND A SIGNIFICANT LAYER OF MID AND
HIGH CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO OVERSPREAD OUR FORECAST AREA...ALONG
WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN AREAS OF
SOUTHWEST ARIZONA AND SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA...MAINLY OVER JTNP. THE
CENTER OF THE LOW WILL EVENTUALLY TRACK EAST ALONG THE INTERNATIONAL
BORDER...PLACING THE BEST DYNAMICS INTO SOUTHERN AND SOUTHEAST
ARIZONA DURING THE DAY FRIDAY.

MOISTURE IS RATHER LIMITED WITH THIS SYSTEM AS IT MOVES THROUGH THE
STATE...WITH FORECAST PRECIPITABLE WATER ONLY NUDGING ABOVE 0.50IN
FOR A BRIEF PERIOD. AS SUCH...CHANCES FOR DECENT RAINFALL ARE NOT
VERY HIGH AND QPF WILL BE LOW...MOSTLY LESS THAN ONE TENTH OF AN
INCH IN ISOLATED SPOTS WHERE IT DOES RAIN. THE BEST PRECIPITATION
CHANCES WILL FOCUS OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN AREAS EAST OF PHOENIX.
GIVEN THE INCREASED MID AND HIGH CLOUDINESS ON FRIDAY...HIGH TEMPS
WILL FALL OFF SEVERAL DEGREES WITH THE CENTRAL ARIZONA DESERTS
LOWERING INTO THE UPPER 60S.

THE LOW IS FORECAST TO DIVE QUICKLY TO THE SOUTHEAST AND EXIT THE
STATE OVERNIGHT FRIDAY NIGHT LEAVING BEHIND A COOL DRY SUBSIDENT
NORTHWEST FLOW. UNDER MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES...EXPECT LITTLE CHANGE IN
HIGH TEMPS SATURDAY...AND READINGS WILL STAY SLIGHTLY BELOW SEASONAL
NORMALS AT MANY SITES. THE EASTERN PACIFIC RIDGE WILL BEGIN TO
AMPLIFY OFF THE WEST COAST SUNDAY...WHILE ANOTHER SHORT WAVE WILL
RIDE DOWN THE EASTERN PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE AND BRUSH THROUGH
NORTHEAST ARIZONA/4-CORNERS AREA. THIS SYSTEM WILL BE DRY...BRINGING
LITTLE CLOUD COVER BUT IT WILL IMPORT ANOTHER SHOT OF COOLER AIR...
SO FORECAST HIGHS ON MONDAY WILL DROP INTO THE MID TO UPPER 60S.

DRY NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL BUILD INTO THE AREA TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY FOR A SLOW WARMING TREND AND NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES
RIGHT BEFORE THE THANKSGIVING DAY HOLIDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...
SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA INCLUDING KPHX...KIWA...AND KSDL...
MID/HIGH CLOUDS WILL INCREASE AND LOWER THROUGH FRIDAY
AFTERNOON...WITH CIGS FALLING AS LOW AS 10K FT AFTER 18Z FRIDAY.
EXPECT EXTENSIVE VIRGA THROUGHOUT THE DAY...BUT AT MOST SPRINKLES
REACHING THE AERODROME TARMACS. SFC WINDS WILL RETAIN A LIGHT
EASTERLY COMPONENT UNTIL FROPA LATE FRIDAY AFTERNOON.


SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA AND SOUTHWEST ARIZONA...INCLUDING KIPL AND
KBLH...
HIGH CLOUDS WILL GRADUALLY CLEAR FRIDAY MORNING...HOWEVER FEW-SCT
5K-6K FT DECK MAY BRIEFLY DEVELOP BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON. BIGGEST
AVIATION IMPACT WILL BE TIMING OF WIND SHIFT WITH FRONTAL
PASSAGE...AND MAGNITUDE OF POST FRONTAL WINDS. COULD SEE A SHALLOW
DENSITY CURRENT PRODUCE A BRIEF PERIOD OF GUSTY WEST WINDS AT KIPL
FRIDAY MORNING...WITH THE TREND TOWARDS A STEADY NW WIND AOB 15KT BY
THE AFTERNOON. GRADIENT AT KBLH WILL BE WEAKER YIELDING LOWER WIND
SPEEDS.

AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDED TAFS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS CAN BE EXPECTED SATURDAY BEHIND A
DEPARTING UPPER LOW. HUMIDITIES WILL TREND DOWNWARD SIGNIFICANTLY
SUNDAY AS DRY AIR FROM THE NORTH PUSHES THROUGH THE AREA. BREEZY TO
WINDY CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED AS WELL OVER SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA
AND SOUTHWEST ARIZONA. HOWEVER...WIND SPEEDS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO
REACH CRITICAL THRESHOLDS. EXPECT WINDS SUNDAY TO BE LIGHTER OVER
SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA. LINGERING BREEZINESS CONTINUES MONDAY AND
EXPANDS SOMEWHAT INTO SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA. MEANWHILE...EXPECT
RIDGETOPS TO BE WINDY AND QUITE A BIT STRONGER AT NIGHT THAN THE
VALLEY FLOORS. TEMPERATURES WILL BE A BIT BELOW NORMAL OVERALL. DRY
CONDITIONS CONTINUE THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

&&

.PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

AZ...NONE.

CA...NONE.

&&

$$

VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/PHOENIX

DISCUSSION...MO/MEYERS/CB
AVIATION...MO
FIRE WEATHER...AJ







000
FXUS65 KPSR 210352
AFDPSR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PHOENIX AZ
850 PM MST THU NOV 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE INCREASING TONIGHT AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
APPROACHES THE DESERT SOUTHWEST. THIS WEATHER SYSTEM WILL MOVE
THROUGH THE REGION FRIDAY...BRINGING MORE CLOUDY SKIES AND COOLER
TEMPERATURES ALONG WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS TO HIGHER TERRAIN
COMMUNITIES. MOSTLY CLEAR AND DRY CONDITIONS WITH NEAR NORMAL
TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN PLACE OVER THE WEEKEND...AND LINGER INTO
NEXT WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
A WELL DEFINED SHORTWAVE UNDERCUTTING THE LONGER WAVELENGTH WESTERN
NORTH AMERICAN BLOCKING RIDGE WAS CENTERED NEAR KOAK THIS
EVENING...DIVING SOUTHEAST TOWARDS THE FORECAST AREA. WHILE
MID/UPPER TROPOSPHERIC DYNAMICS LOOK IMPRESSIVE PER WV
IMAGERY...THERE IS ALSO A COMPLETE LACK OF MOISTURE FEEDING INTO
THIS SYSTEM FROM THE EAST PACIFIC. GIVEN THE OVER LAND TRAJECTORIES
FROM THIS POINT FORWARD...IT WILL LIE SOLELY WITH CAA ALOFT
SQUEEZING OUT EVERY BIT OF ATTENDANT MOISTURE TO PRODUCE ANY
PRECIPITATION WITHIN THE FORECAST AREA. 00Z MODEL
DATA...GUIDANCE/FORECAST SOUNDING PACKAGES ALONG WITH 12Z/18Z HIGH
RESOLUTION OUTPUT PROVIDES GOOD CONFIDENCE THAT MOST OF THE REGION
WILL NOT SEE ANYTHING MORE THAN VIRGA...AND HAVE CUT POPS FOR LOWER
ELEVATION LOCATIONS FRIDAY.

IN THE SHORT TERM...DESPITE INCREASING AND THICKENING HIGH CLOUD
COVER...TEMPERATURES WERE TRENDING SEVERAL DEGREES LOWER THAN
FORECAST. FEEL FORECAST LOWS 5F-10F WARMER THAN THIS MORNING ARE
STILL VALID GIVEN THE CLOUD COVER...AND HAVE ONLY ADJUSTED THE RATE
OF COOLING TO ACCOUNT FOR RECENT TRENDS. OTHERWISE...HAVE ADDED SOME
TEMPORAL DETAIL TO OTHER SALIENT GRIDDED DATA FOR THE REMAINDER OF
THE NIGHT TO CAPTURE RECENT TRENDS.

&&

.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
/242 PM MST THU NOV 20 2014/
THE CENTER OF THE LOW IS PROGGED TO DROP AND MOVE ACROSS SOUTHERN
CALIFORNIA BY TOMORROW MORNING...AND A SIGNIFICANT LAYER OF MID AND
HIGH CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO OVERSPREAD OUR FORECAST AREA...ALONG
WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN AREAS OF
SOUTHWEST ARIZONA AND SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA...MAINLY OVER JTNP. THE
CENTER OF THE LOW WILL EVENTUALLY TRACK EAST ALONG THE INTERNATIONAL
BORDER...PLACING THE BEST DYNAMICS INTO SOUTHERN AND SOUTHEAST
ARIZONA DURING THE DAY FRIDAY.

MOISTURE IS RATHER LIMITED WITH THIS SYSTEM AS IT MOVES THROUGH THE
STATE...WITH FORECAST PRECIPITABLE WATER ONLY NUDGING ABOVE 0.50IN
FOR A BRIEF PERIOD. AS SUCH...CHANCES FOR DECENT RAINFALL ARE NOT
VERY HIGH AND QPF WILL BE LOW...MOSTLY LESS THAN ONE TENTH OF AN
INCH IN ISOLATED SPOTS WHERE IT DOES RAIN. THE BEST PRECIPITATION
CHANCES WILL FOCUS OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN AREAS EAST OF PHOENIX.
GIVEN THE INCREASED MID AND HIGH CLOUDINESS ON FRIDAY...HIGH TEMPS
WILL FALL OFF SEVERAL DEGREES WITH THE CENTRAL ARIZONA DESERTS
LOWERING INTO THE UPPER 60S.

THE LOW IS FORECAST TO DIVE QUICKLY TO THE SOUTHEAST AND EXIT THE
STATE OVERNIGHT FRIDAY NIGHT LEAVING BEHIND A COOL DRY SUBSIDENT
NORTHWEST FLOW. UNDER MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES...EXPECT LITTLE CHANGE IN
HIGH TEMPS SATURDAY...AND READINGS WILL STAY SLIGHTLY BELOW SEASONAL
NORMALS AT MANY SITES. THE EASTERN PACIFIC RIDGE WILL BEGIN TO
AMPLIFY OFF THE WEST COAST SUNDAY...WHILE ANOTHER SHORT WAVE WILL
RIDE DOWN THE EASTERN PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE AND BRUSH THROUGH
NORTHEAST ARIZONA/4-CORNERS AREA. THIS SYSTEM WILL BE DRY...BRINGING
LITTLE CLOUD COVER BUT IT WILL IMPORT ANOTHER SHOT OF COOLER AIR...
SO FORECAST HIGHS ON MONDAY WILL DROP INTO THE MID TO UPPER 60S.

DRY NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL BUILD INTO THE AREA TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY FOR A SLOW WARMING TREND AND NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES
RIGHT BEFORE THE THANKSGIVING DAY HOLIDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...
SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA INCLUDING KPHX...KIWA...AND KSDL...
MID/HIGH CLOUDS WILL INCREASE AND LOWER THROUGH FRIDAY
AFTERNOON...WITH CIGS FALLING AS LOW AS 10K FT AFTER 18Z FRIDAY.
EXPECT EXTENSIVE VIRGA THROUGHOUT THE DAY...BUT AT MOST SPRINKLES
REACHING THE AERODROME TARMACS. SFC WINDS WILL RETAIN A LIGHT
EASTERLY COMPONENT UNTIL FROPA LATE FRIDAY AFTERNOON.


SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA AND SOUTHWEST ARIZONA...INCLUDING KIPL AND
KBLH...
HIGH CLOUDS WILL GRADUALLY CLEAR FRIDAY MORNING...HOWEVER FEW-SCT
5K-6K FT DECK MAY BRIEFLY DEVELOP BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON. BIGGEST
AVIATION IMPACT WILL BE TIMING OF WIND SHIFT WITH FRONTAL
PASSAGE...AND MAGNITUDE OF POST FRONTAL WINDS. COULD SEE A SHALLOW
DENSITY CURRENT PRODUCE A BRIEF PERIOD OF GUSTY WEST WINDS AT KIPL
FRIDAY MORNING...WITH THE TREND TOWARDS A STEADY NW WIND AOB 15KT BY
THE AFTERNOON. GRADIENT AT KBLH WILL BE WEAKER YIELDING LOWER WIND
SPEEDS.

AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDED TAFS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS CAN BE EXPECTED SATURDAY BEHIND A
DEPARTING UPPER LOW. HUMIDITIES WILL TREND DOWNWARD SIGNIFICANTLY
SUNDAY AS DRY AIR FROM THE NORTH PUSHES THROUGH THE AREA. BREEZY TO
WINDY CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED AS WELL OVER SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA
AND SOUTHWEST ARIZONA. HOWEVER...WIND SPEEDS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO
REACH CRITICAL THRESHOLDS. EXPECT WINDS SUNDAY TO BE LIGHTER OVER
SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA. LINGERING BREEZINESS CONTINUES MONDAY AND
EXPANDS SOMEWHAT INTO SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA. MEANWHILE...EXPECT
RIDGETOPS TO BE WINDY AND QUITE A BIT STRONGER AT NIGHT THAN THE
VALLEY FLOORS. TEMPERATURES WILL BE A BIT BELOW NORMAL OVERALL. DRY
CONDITIONS CONTINUE THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

&&

.PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

AZ...NONE.

CA...NONE.

&&

$$

VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/PHOENIX

DISCUSSION...MO/MEYERS/CB
AVIATION...MO
FIRE WEATHER...AJ






000
FXUS65 KFGZ 202232
AFDFGZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ
330 PM MST THU NOV 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE OVER NORTHERN CALIFORNIA THIS AFTERNOON WILL
MOVE SOUTHEAST AND OVER FAR SOUTHWEST ARIZONA BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON.
THIS WILL BRING A CHANCE OF RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS...BREEZY...AND
COOLER CONDITIONS TO PORTIONS OF ARIZONA ON FRIDAY. WEAK HIGH
PRESSURE WILL MOVE ACROSS ARIZONA ON SATURDAY WITH A SLIGHT REBOUND
IN HIGH TEMPERATURES AND BREEZY NORTHWEST WINDS. ANOTHER COLD FRONT
WILL MOVE SOUTH ACROSS ARIZONA SUNDAY...BRINGING BREEZY NORTH
WINDS...A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS ALONG THE ARIZONA UTAH BORDER.

&&

.DISCUSSION...THE NEXT TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE THAT WILL IMPACT
ARIZONA IS CURRENTLY MOVING ON TO THE NORTH COAST OF CALIFORNIA.
CURRENT GUIDANCE SHOWS THIS TROUGH MOVING SOUTHEAST TO BETWEEN ROCKY
POINT AND NOGALES BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND THEN CENTRAL TEXAS BY
SATURDAY AFTERNOON. THIS TRACK WILL BRING THE BEST CHANCE OF LIGHT
SHOWERS AND HIGHER ELEVATION SNOW SHOWERS FROM THE KAIBAB PLATEAU
AND MOGOLLON RIM SOUTHWARD. AREAS NORTHEAST OF THE MOGOLLON RIM WILL JUST
HAVE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS. COLDER AIR WILL DROP THE SNOW LEVEL
DOWN TO AROUND 6500 FEET...WITH LIGHT SNOW ACCUMULATION ABOVE THAT
ELEVATION.

ON SATURDAY...A FAST MOVING UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL
MOVE ACROSS NORTHERN ARIZONA...BRINGING DRY CONDITIONS AND NEAR
NORMAL TEMPERATURES.

A LARGE TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE INTO THE ROCKIES AND GREAT
PLAINS BY LATE SATURDAY WITH INCREASING WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS FOR
NORTHERN ARIZONA. A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL MOVE FROM NORTH TO SOUTH
ACROSS NORTHERN ARIZONA ON SUNDAY. THIS FRONT WILL NOT HAVE MUCH
MOISTURE...AND WILL BRING ONLY A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS TO MAINLY FAR
NORTHERN ARIZONA ON SUNDAY. BREEZY NORTH TO NORTHEAST WINDS AND HIGH
TEMPERATURES 4-6 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL ARE EXPECTED SUNDAY THROUGH
MONDAY.

TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY OF NEXT WEEK...A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BRING DRY CONDITIONS AND WARMING DAYTIME TEMPERATURES...WITH
HIGH TEMPERATURES RETURNING CLOSE TO NORMAL VALUES BY WEDNESDAY.
NORTH TO NORTHEAST BREEZES ARE FORECAST MAINLY FROM THE MOGOLLON
RIM SOUTHWARD.

&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 00Z PACKAGE...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL
TONIGHT WITH GENERALLY LIGHT WINDS. EXPECT INCREASING HIGH CLOUD
COVER OVERNIGHT...THICKENING THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING WITH MID LEVEL
CIGS DEVELOPING AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES INTO AZ. EXPECT
SCATTERED SHRA/SHSN PRIMARILY OVER THE HIGH TERRAIN FROM 12Z ONWARD
WITH SCT-BKN STRATUS. SNOW LEVELS WILL RANGE FROM 6500-7000 FT MSL.
CONDITIONS SHOULD REMAIN PREDOMINANTLY VFR ON FRIDAY BUT POCKETS OF
MVFR WILL BE POSSIBLE NEAR SHOWERS. AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED
FOR AMENDMENTS.

&&

.FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC.........MAS
AVIATION.......MCS

FOR NORTHERN ARIZONA WEATHER INFORMATION VISIT
WEATHER.GOV/FLAGSTAFF
















000
FXUS65 KFGZ 202232
AFDFGZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ
330 PM MST THU NOV 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE OVER NORTHERN CALIFORNIA THIS AFTERNOON WILL
MOVE SOUTHEAST AND OVER FAR SOUTHWEST ARIZONA BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON.
THIS WILL BRING A CHANCE OF RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS...BREEZY...AND
COOLER CONDITIONS TO PORTIONS OF ARIZONA ON FRIDAY. WEAK HIGH
PRESSURE WILL MOVE ACROSS ARIZONA ON SATURDAY WITH A SLIGHT REBOUND
IN HIGH TEMPERATURES AND BREEZY NORTHWEST WINDS. ANOTHER COLD FRONT
WILL MOVE SOUTH ACROSS ARIZONA SUNDAY...BRINGING BREEZY NORTH
WINDS...A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS ALONG THE ARIZONA UTAH BORDER.

&&

.DISCUSSION...THE NEXT TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE THAT WILL IMPACT
ARIZONA IS CURRENTLY MOVING ON TO THE NORTH COAST OF CALIFORNIA.
CURRENT GUIDANCE SHOWS THIS TROUGH MOVING SOUTHEAST TO BETWEEN ROCKY
POINT AND NOGALES BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND THEN CENTRAL TEXAS BY
SATURDAY AFTERNOON. THIS TRACK WILL BRING THE BEST CHANCE OF LIGHT
SHOWERS AND HIGHER ELEVATION SNOW SHOWERS FROM THE KAIBAB PLATEAU
AND MOGOLLON RIM SOUTHWARD. AREAS NORTHEAST OF THE MOGOLLON RIM WILL JUST
HAVE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS. COLDER AIR WILL DROP THE SNOW LEVEL
DOWN TO AROUND 6500 FEET...WITH LIGHT SNOW ACCUMULATION ABOVE THAT
ELEVATION.

ON SATURDAY...A FAST MOVING UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL
MOVE ACROSS NORTHERN ARIZONA...BRINGING DRY CONDITIONS AND NEAR
NORMAL TEMPERATURES.

A LARGE TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE INTO THE ROCKIES AND GREAT
PLAINS BY LATE SATURDAY WITH INCREASING WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS FOR
NORTHERN ARIZONA. A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL MOVE FROM NORTH TO SOUTH
ACROSS NORTHERN ARIZONA ON SUNDAY. THIS FRONT WILL NOT HAVE MUCH
MOISTURE...AND WILL BRING ONLY A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS TO MAINLY FAR
NORTHERN ARIZONA ON SUNDAY. BREEZY NORTH TO NORTHEAST WINDS AND HIGH
TEMPERATURES 4-6 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL ARE EXPECTED SUNDAY THROUGH
MONDAY.

TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY OF NEXT WEEK...A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BRING DRY CONDITIONS AND WARMING DAYTIME TEMPERATURES...WITH
HIGH TEMPERATURES RETURNING CLOSE TO NORMAL VALUES BY WEDNESDAY.
NORTH TO NORTHEAST BREEZES ARE FORECAST MAINLY FROM THE MOGOLLON
RIM SOUTHWARD.

&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 00Z PACKAGE...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL
TONIGHT WITH GENERALLY LIGHT WINDS. EXPECT INCREASING HIGH CLOUD
COVER OVERNIGHT...THICKENING THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING WITH MID LEVEL
CIGS DEVELOPING AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES INTO AZ. EXPECT
SCATTERED SHRA/SHSN PRIMARILY OVER THE HIGH TERRAIN FROM 12Z ONWARD
WITH SCT-BKN STRATUS. SNOW LEVELS WILL RANGE FROM 6500-7000 FT MSL.
CONDITIONS SHOULD REMAIN PREDOMINANTLY VFR ON FRIDAY BUT POCKETS OF
MVFR WILL BE POSSIBLE NEAR SHOWERS. AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED
FOR AMENDMENTS.

&&

.FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC.........MAS
AVIATION.......MCS

FOR NORTHERN ARIZONA WEATHER INFORMATION VISIT
WEATHER.GOV/FLAGSTAFF
















000
FXUS65 KFGZ 202232
AFDFGZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ
330 PM MST THU NOV 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE OVER NORTHERN CALIFORNIA THIS AFTERNOON WILL
MOVE SOUTHEAST AND OVER FAR SOUTHWEST ARIZONA BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON.
THIS WILL BRING A CHANCE OF RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS...BREEZY...AND
COOLER CONDITIONS TO PORTIONS OF ARIZONA ON FRIDAY. WEAK HIGH
PRESSURE WILL MOVE ACROSS ARIZONA ON SATURDAY WITH A SLIGHT REBOUND
IN HIGH TEMPERATURES AND BREEZY NORTHWEST WINDS. ANOTHER COLD FRONT
WILL MOVE SOUTH ACROSS ARIZONA SUNDAY...BRINGING BREEZY NORTH
WINDS...A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS ALONG THE ARIZONA UTAH BORDER.

&&

.DISCUSSION...THE NEXT TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE THAT WILL IMPACT
ARIZONA IS CURRENTLY MOVING ON TO THE NORTH COAST OF CALIFORNIA.
CURRENT GUIDANCE SHOWS THIS TROUGH MOVING SOUTHEAST TO BETWEEN ROCKY
POINT AND NOGALES BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND THEN CENTRAL TEXAS BY
SATURDAY AFTERNOON. THIS TRACK WILL BRING THE BEST CHANCE OF LIGHT
SHOWERS AND HIGHER ELEVATION SNOW SHOWERS FROM THE KAIBAB PLATEAU
AND MOGOLLON RIM SOUTHWARD. AREAS NORTHEAST OF THE MOGOLLON RIM WILL JUST
HAVE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS. COLDER AIR WILL DROP THE SNOW LEVEL
DOWN TO AROUND 6500 FEET...WITH LIGHT SNOW ACCUMULATION ABOVE THAT
ELEVATION.

ON SATURDAY...A FAST MOVING UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL
MOVE ACROSS NORTHERN ARIZONA...BRINGING DRY CONDITIONS AND NEAR
NORMAL TEMPERATURES.

A LARGE TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE INTO THE ROCKIES AND GREAT
PLAINS BY LATE SATURDAY WITH INCREASING WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS FOR
NORTHERN ARIZONA. A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL MOVE FROM NORTH TO SOUTH
ACROSS NORTHERN ARIZONA ON SUNDAY. THIS FRONT WILL NOT HAVE MUCH
MOISTURE...AND WILL BRING ONLY A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS TO MAINLY FAR
NORTHERN ARIZONA ON SUNDAY. BREEZY NORTH TO NORTHEAST WINDS AND HIGH
TEMPERATURES 4-6 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL ARE EXPECTED SUNDAY THROUGH
MONDAY.

TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY OF NEXT WEEK...A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BRING DRY CONDITIONS AND WARMING DAYTIME TEMPERATURES...WITH
HIGH TEMPERATURES RETURNING CLOSE TO NORMAL VALUES BY WEDNESDAY.
NORTH TO NORTHEAST BREEZES ARE FORECAST MAINLY FROM THE MOGOLLON
RIM SOUTHWARD.

&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 00Z PACKAGE...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL
TONIGHT WITH GENERALLY LIGHT WINDS. EXPECT INCREASING HIGH CLOUD
COVER OVERNIGHT...THICKENING THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING WITH MID LEVEL
CIGS DEVELOPING AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES INTO AZ. EXPECT
SCATTERED SHRA/SHSN PRIMARILY OVER THE HIGH TERRAIN FROM 12Z ONWARD
WITH SCT-BKN STRATUS. SNOW LEVELS WILL RANGE FROM 6500-7000 FT MSL.
CONDITIONS SHOULD REMAIN PREDOMINANTLY VFR ON FRIDAY BUT POCKETS OF
MVFR WILL BE POSSIBLE NEAR SHOWERS. AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED
FOR AMENDMENTS.

&&

.FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC.........MAS
AVIATION.......MCS

FOR NORTHERN ARIZONA WEATHER INFORMATION VISIT
WEATHER.GOV/FLAGSTAFF
















000
FXUS65 KFGZ 202232
AFDFGZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ
330 PM MST THU NOV 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE OVER NORTHERN CALIFORNIA THIS AFTERNOON WILL
MOVE SOUTHEAST AND OVER FAR SOUTHWEST ARIZONA BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON.
THIS WILL BRING A CHANCE OF RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS...BREEZY...AND
COOLER CONDITIONS TO PORTIONS OF ARIZONA ON FRIDAY. WEAK HIGH
PRESSURE WILL MOVE ACROSS ARIZONA ON SATURDAY WITH A SLIGHT REBOUND
IN HIGH TEMPERATURES AND BREEZY NORTHWEST WINDS. ANOTHER COLD FRONT
WILL MOVE SOUTH ACROSS ARIZONA SUNDAY...BRINGING BREEZY NORTH
WINDS...A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS ALONG THE ARIZONA UTAH BORDER.

&&

.DISCUSSION...THE NEXT TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE THAT WILL IMPACT
ARIZONA IS CURRENTLY MOVING ON TO THE NORTH COAST OF CALIFORNIA.
CURRENT GUIDANCE SHOWS THIS TROUGH MOVING SOUTHEAST TO BETWEEN ROCKY
POINT AND NOGALES BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND THEN CENTRAL TEXAS BY
SATURDAY AFTERNOON. THIS TRACK WILL BRING THE BEST CHANCE OF LIGHT
SHOWERS AND HIGHER ELEVATION SNOW SHOWERS FROM THE KAIBAB PLATEAU
AND MOGOLLON RIM SOUTHWARD. AREAS NORTHEAST OF THE MOGOLLON RIM WILL JUST
HAVE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS. COLDER AIR WILL DROP THE SNOW LEVEL
DOWN TO AROUND 6500 FEET...WITH LIGHT SNOW ACCUMULATION ABOVE THAT
ELEVATION.

ON SATURDAY...A FAST MOVING UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL
MOVE ACROSS NORTHERN ARIZONA...BRINGING DRY CONDITIONS AND NEAR
NORMAL TEMPERATURES.

A LARGE TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE INTO THE ROCKIES AND GREAT
PLAINS BY LATE SATURDAY WITH INCREASING WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS FOR
NORTHERN ARIZONA. A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL MOVE FROM NORTH TO SOUTH
ACROSS NORTHERN ARIZONA ON SUNDAY. THIS FRONT WILL NOT HAVE MUCH
MOISTURE...AND WILL BRING ONLY A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS TO MAINLY FAR
NORTHERN ARIZONA ON SUNDAY. BREEZY NORTH TO NORTHEAST WINDS AND HIGH
TEMPERATURES 4-6 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL ARE EXPECTED SUNDAY THROUGH
MONDAY.

TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY OF NEXT WEEK...A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BRING DRY CONDITIONS AND WARMING DAYTIME TEMPERATURES...WITH
HIGH TEMPERATURES RETURNING CLOSE TO NORMAL VALUES BY WEDNESDAY.
NORTH TO NORTHEAST BREEZES ARE FORECAST MAINLY FROM THE MOGOLLON
RIM SOUTHWARD.

&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 00Z PACKAGE...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL
TONIGHT WITH GENERALLY LIGHT WINDS. EXPECT INCREASING HIGH CLOUD
COVER OVERNIGHT...THICKENING THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING WITH MID LEVEL
CIGS DEVELOPING AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES INTO AZ. EXPECT
SCATTERED SHRA/SHSN PRIMARILY OVER THE HIGH TERRAIN FROM 12Z ONWARD
WITH SCT-BKN STRATUS. SNOW LEVELS WILL RANGE FROM 6500-7000 FT MSL.
CONDITIONS SHOULD REMAIN PREDOMINANTLY VFR ON FRIDAY BUT POCKETS OF
MVFR WILL BE POSSIBLE NEAR SHOWERS. AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED
FOR AMENDMENTS.

&&

.FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC.........MAS
AVIATION.......MCS

FOR NORTHERN ARIZONA WEATHER INFORMATION VISIT
WEATHER.GOV/FLAGSTAFF
















000
FXUS65 KTWC 202206
AFDTWC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ
305 PM MST THU NOV 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE NEAR THE INTERNATIONAL
BORDER FRIDAY AFTERNOON INTO FRIDAY NIGHT. THIS SYSTEM WILL BRING
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED VALLEY RAIN AND MOUNTAIN SNOW SHOWERS. LIGHT
PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS WILL BE THE RULE. DRY CONDITIONS WILL THEN
PREVAIL THIS WEEKEND INTO THANKSGIVING DAY. EXPECT COOLER DAYTIME
TEMPERATURES THIS WEEKEND FOLLOWED BY A WARMING TREND BY
THANKSGIVING DAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER NRN CALIFORNIA
THIS AFTERNOON WILL MOVE SEWD INTO FAR SWRN AZ MIDDAY FRI. THIS
SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE SEWD INTO NERN SONORA FRI NIGHT. 20/12Z
NAM TRENDED POPS HIGHER FOR FRI AFTERNOON/EVENING VERSUS PREVIOUS
NAM SOLUTIONS. MEANWHILE...THE 20/12Z GFS WAS SIMILAR TO PREVIOUS
GFS SOLUTIONS...WHILE THE 20/12Z ECMWF WAS SOMEWHAT FURTHER SOUTH
WITH THE PATH OF THE UPPER LOW VERSUS EARLIER SOLUTIONS.

FOR THE OFFICIAL FORECAST...HAVE MAINTAINED DRY CONDITIONS TONIGHT
AND FOR MOST LOCALES FRI MORNING. STILL APPEARS THAT ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL OCCUR MAINLY WEST OF TUCSON FRIDAY AFTERNOON.
HAVE MADE SOME ADDITIONAL MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO THE GRIDDED DATA POPS
TO DEPICT THE BEST TIME PERIOD FOR PRECIP TO OCCUR FRI EVENING. MOST
NWP MODELS FAVOR SANTA CRUZ/SRN COCHISE COUNTIES FOR THE BEST CHANCE
OF PRECIP.

GIVEN THE RAPID PROGRESSION OF THIS SYSTEM AND THE LACK OF
SIGNIFICANT LOWER LEVEL MOISTURE...LIQUID AMOUNTS SHOULD BE QUITE
LIGHT. SNOW LEVELS BY FRI EVENING SHOULD GENERALLY BE NEAR 7000
FEET...AND SNOW ACCUMULATIONS SHOULD BE LIMITED TO ONLY AN INCH OR
SO ACROSS THE HIGHEST PEAKS. ISOLATED SHOWERS SHOULD CONTINUE LATE
FRI NIGHT ACROSS FAR SERN SECTIONS. DRY CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL SAT
BEHIND THIS SYSTEM.

THE NEXT SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL THEN MOVE RAPIDLY SEWD ACROSS THE
CENTRAL ROCKIES SUN. A TIGHT MID-LEVEL GRADIENT WILL PRODUCE GUSTY
WLY/NWLY WINDS SUN. THE ORIENTATION OF THE MID-LEVEL GRADIENT FAVORS
THE UPPER GILA VALLEY WITH THE STRONGER WINDS. HAVE OPTED FOR DRY
CONDITIONS MON-THUR AS A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS EITHER NEAR
THE WEST COAST OR OVER THE WRN CONUS.

HIGH TEMPS FRI WILL BE ABOUT 5 DEGS OR SO COOLER VERSUS TEMPS
ACHIEVED THIS AFTERNOON. EXPECT NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE IN DAYTIME
TEMPS SAT-MON FOLLOWED BY A GRADUAL WARMING TREND TUE-THUR.

&&

.AVIATION...VALID THRU 22/12Z.
AN APPROACHING WEATHER SYSTEM WILL SPREAD INCREASING HIGH LEVEL
CLOUDINESS OVER THE REGION THROUGH FRIDAY. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL
SLOWLY BE ON THE INCREASE WITH LOWER CLOUDS INCREASING MID DAY
FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY EVENING. SHOWERS MAY IMPACT TERMINAL AREAS
ESPECIALLY BETWEEN 21/21Z TO 22/06Z. THE WEATHER SYSTEM IS EXPECTED
TO BE EAST OF THE AREA BY EARLY SATURDAY. VFR CONDITIONS ARE
ANTICIPATED FOR MOST LOCALES THROUGHOUT THE EVENT. WINDS WILL
GENERALLY REMAIN BELOW 10 KNOTS. AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR
TAF AMENDMENTS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BRING ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS WITH PERHAPS A FEW MOUNTAIN SNOW SHOWERS
FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND FRIDAY NIGHT. DRY CONDITIONS WILL THEN PREVAIL
THIS WEEKEND THROUGH THANKSGIVING DAY. ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
PASSING TO THE NORTH OF THE REGION SUNDAY WILL BRING GUSTY WEST TO
NORTHWEST WINDS TO THE AREA. THE UPPER GILA VALLEY MAY SEE WINDS OF
10-15 MPH WITH GUSTS OF 25-30 MPH. SLIGHTLY ELEVATED EASTERLY WINDS
ARE EXPECTED TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY.

&&

.TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...YOUTUBE...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/TUCSON

DISCUSSION...FRANCIS
AVIATION/FIRE WEATHER...CANTIN






000
FXUS65 KTWC 202206
AFDTWC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ
305 PM MST THU NOV 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE NEAR THE INTERNATIONAL
BORDER FRIDAY AFTERNOON INTO FRIDAY NIGHT. THIS SYSTEM WILL BRING
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED VALLEY RAIN AND MOUNTAIN SNOW SHOWERS. LIGHT
PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS WILL BE THE RULE. DRY CONDITIONS WILL THEN
PREVAIL THIS WEEKEND INTO THANKSGIVING DAY. EXPECT COOLER DAYTIME
TEMPERATURES THIS WEEKEND FOLLOWED BY A WARMING TREND BY
THANKSGIVING DAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER NRN CALIFORNIA
THIS AFTERNOON WILL MOVE SEWD INTO FAR SWRN AZ MIDDAY FRI. THIS
SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE SEWD INTO NERN SONORA FRI NIGHT. 20/12Z
NAM TRENDED POPS HIGHER FOR FRI AFTERNOON/EVENING VERSUS PREVIOUS
NAM SOLUTIONS. MEANWHILE...THE 20/12Z GFS WAS SIMILAR TO PREVIOUS
GFS SOLUTIONS...WHILE THE 20/12Z ECMWF WAS SOMEWHAT FURTHER SOUTH
WITH THE PATH OF THE UPPER LOW VERSUS EARLIER SOLUTIONS.

FOR THE OFFICIAL FORECAST...HAVE MAINTAINED DRY CONDITIONS TONIGHT
AND FOR MOST LOCALES FRI MORNING. STILL APPEARS THAT ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL OCCUR MAINLY WEST OF TUCSON FRIDAY AFTERNOON.
HAVE MADE SOME ADDITIONAL MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO THE GRIDDED DATA POPS
TO DEPICT THE BEST TIME PERIOD FOR PRECIP TO OCCUR FRI EVENING. MOST
NWP MODELS FAVOR SANTA CRUZ/SRN COCHISE COUNTIES FOR THE BEST CHANCE
OF PRECIP.

GIVEN THE RAPID PROGRESSION OF THIS SYSTEM AND THE LACK OF
SIGNIFICANT LOWER LEVEL MOISTURE...LIQUID AMOUNTS SHOULD BE QUITE
LIGHT. SNOW LEVELS BY FRI EVENING SHOULD GENERALLY BE NEAR 7000
FEET...AND SNOW ACCUMULATIONS SHOULD BE LIMITED TO ONLY AN INCH OR
SO ACROSS THE HIGHEST PEAKS. ISOLATED SHOWERS SHOULD CONTINUE LATE
FRI NIGHT ACROSS FAR SERN SECTIONS. DRY CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL SAT
BEHIND THIS SYSTEM.

THE NEXT SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL THEN MOVE RAPIDLY SEWD ACROSS THE
CENTRAL ROCKIES SUN. A TIGHT MID-LEVEL GRADIENT WILL PRODUCE GUSTY
WLY/NWLY WINDS SUN. THE ORIENTATION OF THE MID-LEVEL GRADIENT FAVORS
THE UPPER GILA VALLEY WITH THE STRONGER WINDS. HAVE OPTED FOR DRY
CONDITIONS MON-THUR AS A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS EITHER NEAR
THE WEST COAST OR OVER THE WRN CONUS.

HIGH TEMPS FRI WILL BE ABOUT 5 DEGS OR SO COOLER VERSUS TEMPS
ACHIEVED THIS AFTERNOON. EXPECT NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE IN DAYTIME
TEMPS SAT-MON FOLLOWED BY A GRADUAL WARMING TREND TUE-THUR.

&&

.AVIATION...VALID THRU 22/12Z.
AN APPROACHING WEATHER SYSTEM WILL SPREAD INCREASING HIGH LEVEL
CLOUDINESS OVER THE REGION THROUGH FRIDAY. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL
SLOWLY BE ON THE INCREASE WITH LOWER CLOUDS INCREASING MID DAY
FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY EVENING. SHOWERS MAY IMPACT TERMINAL AREAS
ESPECIALLY BETWEEN 21/21Z TO 22/06Z. THE WEATHER SYSTEM IS EXPECTED
TO BE EAST OF THE AREA BY EARLY SATURDAY. VFR CONDITIONS ARE
ANTICIPATED FOR MOST LOCALES THROUGHOUT THE EVENT. WINDS WILL
GENERALLY REMAIN BELOW 10 KNOTS. AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR
TAF AMENDMENTS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BRING ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS WITH PERHAPS A FEW MOUNTAIN SNOW SHOWERS
FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND FRIDAY NIGHT. DRY CONDITIONS WILL THEN PREVAIL
THIS WEEKEND THROUGH THANKSGIVING DAY. ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
PASSING TO THE NORTH OF THE REGION SUNDAY WILL BRING GUSTY WEST TO
NORTHWEST WINDS TO THE AREA. THE UPPER GILA VALLEY MAY SEE WINDS OF
10-15 MPH WITH GUSTS OF 25-30 MPH. SLIGHTLY ELEVATED EASTERLY WINDS
ARE EXPECTED TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY.

&&

.TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...YOUTUBE...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/TUCSON

DISCUSSION...FRANCIS
AVIATION/FIRE WEATHER...CANTIN





000
FXUS65 KPSR 202142
AFDPSR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PHOENIX AZ
242 PM MST THU NOV 20 2014

.UPDATE...UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
CLOUDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE THIS EVENING AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
APPROACHES THE DESERT SOUTHWEST. THE SYSTEM WILL MOVE THROUGH THE
REGION LATE TONIGHT AND FRIDAY...BRINGING CLOUDY SKIES AND COOLER
TEMPERATURES...ALONG WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS. DRY CONDITIONS
WITH BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN PLACE OVER THE WEEKEND AND
LINGER INTO NEXT WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
SATELLITE IMAGERY REVEALS MOSTLY CLEAR/SUNNY SKIES PERSIST ACROSS
ARIZONA THIS AFTERNOON...AS THE NEXT EASTERN PACIFIC LOW CONTINUES
TO MOVE INLAND OVER NORTHERN CALIFORNIA...MID AND HIGH CLOUDS
BEGINNING TO OVERSPREAD SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA AHEAD OF THE TROUGH.
TEMPERATURES ACROSS OUR CWA HAVE ONCE AGAIN WARMED UP INTO THE LOW
70S CWA-WIDE...PHOENIX HITTING 72 DEGREES SO FAR THIS AFTERNOON.
WITH THE INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER THIS EVENING...AND SOME LOCAL
BREEZINESS...OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE A BIT MORE MILD...UP TO 5-8
DEGREES WARMER...ESPECIALLY AT LOCALES ACROSS SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA.

THE CENTER OF THE LOW IS PROGGED TO DROP AND MOVE ACROSS SOUTHERN
CALIFORNIA BY TOMORROW MORNING...AND A SIGNIFICANT LAYER OF MID AND
HIGH CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO OVERSPREAD OUR FORECAST AREA...ALONG
WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN AREAS OF
SOUTHWEST ARIZONA AND SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA...MAINLY OVER JTNP. THE
CENTER OF THE LOW WILL EVENTUALLY TRACK EAST ALONG THE INTERNATIONAL
BORDER...PLACING THE BEST DYNAMICS INTO SOUTHERN AND SOUTHEAST
ARIZONA DURING THE DAY FRIDAY.

MOISTURE IS RATHER LIMITED WITH THIS SYSTEM AS IT MOVES THROUGH THE
STATE...WITH FORECAST PRECIPITABLE WATER ONLY NUDGING ABOVE 0.50IN
FOR A BRIEF PERIOD. AS SUCH...CHANCES FOR DECENT RAINFALL ARE NOT
VERY HIGH AND QPF WILL BE LOW...MOSTLY LESS THAN ONE TENTH OF AN
INCH IN ISOLATED SPOTS WHERE IT DOES RAIN. THE BEST PRECIPITATION
CHANCES WILL FOCUS OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN AREAS EAST OF PHOENIX.
GIVEN THE INCREASED MID AND HIGH CLOUDINESS ON FRIDAY...HIGH TEMPS
WILL FALL OFF SEVERAL DEGREES WITH THE CENTRAL ARIZONA DESERTS
LOWERING INTO THE UPPER 60S.

THE LOW IS FORECAST TO DIVE QUICKLY TO THE SOUTHEAST AND EXIT THE
STATE OVERNIGHT FRIDAY NIGHT LEAVING BEHIND A COOL DRY SUBSIDENT
NORTHWEST FLOW. UNDER MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES...EXPECT LITTLE CHANGE IN
HIGH TEMPS SATURDAY...AND READINGS WILL STAY SLIGHTLY BELOW SEASONAL
NORMALS AT MANY SITES. THE EASTERN PACIFIC RIDGE WILL BEGIN TO
AMPLIFY OFF THE WEST COAST SUNDAY...WHILE ANOTHER SHORT WAVE WILL
RIDE DOWN THE EASTERN PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE AND BRUSH THROUGH
NORTHEAST ARIZONA/4-CORNERS AREA. THIS SYSTEM WILL BE DRY...BRINGING
LITTLE CLOUD COVER BUT IT WILL IMPORT ANOTHER SHOT OF COOLER AIR...
SO FORECAST HIGHS ON MONDAY WILL DROP INTO THE MID TO UPPER 60S.

DRY NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL BUILD INTO THE AREA TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY FOR A SLOW WARMING TREND AND NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES
RIGHT BEFORE THE THANKSGIVING DAY HOLIDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...
SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA INCLUDING KPHX...KIWA...AND KSDL...
A WEAK PACIFIC WEATHER SYSTEM WILL APPROACH THE AREA...THEN MOVE
THROUGH THE GREATER PHOENIX AREA...WITH A DRY COLD FRONT...AROUND
18Z FRI. THROUGH 08Z FRI...MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WIND UNDER 8
KNOTS. FROM 08Z FRI THROUGH 23Z FRI...BKN CLDS AOA 15 THSD AGL WITH
CONSIDERABLE VIRGA SHWRS. WEST WINDS INCREASING TO BETWEEN 8 AND 12
KNOTS BETWEEN 18Z-23Z.


SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA AND SOUTHWEST ARIZONA...INCLUDING KIPL AND
KBLH...
A WEAK PACIFIC WEATHER SYSTEM WILL APPROACH THE AREA...THEN MOVE
THROUGH SOUTHEAST CA/COLORADO RIVER VALLEY...WITH A DRY COLD
FRONT...AROUND 12Z FRI. THROUGH 05Z FRI...MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES WITH
LIGHT WIND UNDER 8 KNOTS. FROM 05Z FRI THROUGH 18Z FRI...INCREASING
CLDS BECOMING SCT-BKN AOA 15 THSD AGL WITH OCCASIONAL VIRGA SHWRS BY
11Z FRI. INCREASING NORTHWEST WIND 10 TO 14 KNOTS BETWEEN 16Z FRI
AND 23Z FRI.

AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDED TAFS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS CAN BE EXPECTED SATURDAY BEHIND A
DEPARTING UPPER LOW. HUMIDITIES WILL TREND DOWNWARD SIGNIFICANTLY
SUNDAY AS DRY AIR FROM THE NORTH PUSHES THROUGH THE AREA. BREEZY TO
WINDY CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED AS WELL OVER SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA
AND SOUTHWEST ARIZONA. HOWEVER...WIND SPEEDS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO
REACH CRITICAL THRESHOLDS. EXPECT WINDS SUNDAY TO BE LIGHTER OVER
SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA. LINGERING BREEZINESS CONTINUES MONDAY AND
EXPANDS SOMEWHAT INTO SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA. MEANWHILE...EXPECT
RIDGETOPS TO BE WINDY AND QUITE A BIT STRONGER AT NIGHT THAN THE
VALLEY FLOORS. TEMPERATURES WILL BE A BIT BELOW NORMAL OVERALL. DRY
CONDITIONS CONTINUE THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

&&

.PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

AZ...NONE.

CA...NONE.

&&

$$

VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/PHOENIX

DISCUSSION...MEYERS/CB
AVIATION...VASQUEZ
FIRE WEATHER...AJ






000
FXUS65 KPSR 202142
AFDPSR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PHOENIX AZ
242 PM MST THU NOV 20 2014

.UPDATE...UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
CLOUDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE THIS EVENING AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
APPROACHES THE DESERT SOUTHWEST. THE SYSTEM WILL MOVE THROUGH THE
REGION LATE TONIGHT AND FRIDAY...BRINGING CLOUDY SKIES AND COOLER
TEMPERATURES...ALONG WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS. DRY CONDITIONS
WITH BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN PLACE OVER THE WEEKEND AND
LINGER INTO NEXT WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
SATELLITE IMAGERY REVEALS MOSTLY CLEAR/SUNNY SKIES PERSIST ACROSS
ARIZONA THIS AFTERNOON...AS THE NEXT EASTERN PACIFIC LOW CONTINUES
TO MOVE INLAND OVER NORTHERN CALIFORNIA...MID AND HIGH CLOUDS
BEGINNING TO OVERSPREAD SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA AHEAD OF THE TROUGH.
TEMPERATURES ACROSS OUR CWA HAVE ONCE AGAIN WARMED UP INTO THE LOW
70S CWA-WIDE...PHOENIX HITTING 72 DEGREES SO FAR THIS AFTERNOON.
WITH THE INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER THIS EVENING...AND SOME LOCAL
BREEZINESS...OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE A BIT MORE MILD...UP TO 5-8
DEGREES WARMER...ESPECIALLY AT LOCALES ACROSS SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA.

THE CENTER OF THE LOW IS PROGGED TO DROP AND MOVE ACROSS SOUTHERN
CALIFORNIA BY TOMORROW MORNING...AND A SIGNIFICANT LAYER OF MID AND
HIGH CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO OVERSPREAD OUR FORECAST AREA...ALONG
WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN AREAS OF
SOUTHWEST ARIZONA AND SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA...MAINLY OVER JTNP. THE
CENTER OF THE LOW WILL EVENTUALLY TRACK EAST ALONG THE INTERNATIONAL
BORDER...PLACING THE BEST DYNAMICS INTO SOUTHERN AND SOUTHEAST
ARIZONA DURING THE DAY FRIDAY.

MOISTURE IS RATHER LIMITED WITH THIS SYSTEM AS IT MOVES THROUGH THE
STATE...WITH FORECAST PRECIPITABLE WATER ONLY NUDGING ABOVE 0.50IN
FOR A BRIEF PERIOD. AS SUCH...CHANCES FOR DECENT RAINFALL ARE NOT
VERY HIGH AND QPF WILL BE LOW...MOSTLY LESS THAN ONE TENTH OF AN
INCH IN ISOLATED SPOTS WHERE IT DOES RAIN. THE BEST PRECIPITATION
CHANCES WILL FOCUS OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN AREAS EAST OF PHOENIX.
GIVEN THE INCREASED MID AND HIGH CLOUDINESS ON FRIDAY...HIGH TEMPS
WILL FALL OFF SEVERAL DEGREES WITH THE CENTRAL ARIZONA DESERTS
LOWERING INTO THE UPPER 60S.

THE LOW IS FORECAST TO DIVE QUICKLY TO THE SOUTHEAST AND EXIT THE
STATE OVERNIGHT FRIDAY NIGHT LEAVING BEHIND A COOL DRY SUBSIDENT
NORTHWEST FLOW. UNDER MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES...EXPECT LITTLE CHANGE IN
HIGH TEMPS SATURDAY...AND READINGS WILL STAY SLIGHTLY BELOW SEASONAL
NORMALS AT MANY SITES. THE EASTERN PACIFIC RIDGE WILL BEGIN TO
AMPLIFY OFF THE WEST COAST SUNDAY...WHILE ANOTHER SHORT WAVE WILL
RIDE DOWN THE EASTERN PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE AND BRUSH THROUGH
NORTHEAST ARIZONA/4-CORNERS AREA. THIS SYSTEM WILL BE DRY...BRINGING
LITTLE CLOUD COVER BUT IT WILL IMPORT ANOTHER SHOT OF COOLER AIR...
SO FORECAST HIGHS ON MONDAY WILL DROP INTO THE MID TO UPPER 60S.

DRY NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL BUILD INTO THE AREA TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY FOR A SLOW WARMING TREND AND NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES
RIGHT BEFORE THE THANKSGIVING DAY HOLIDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...
SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA INCLUDING KPHX...KIWA...AND KSDL...
A WEAK PACIFIC WEATHER SYSTEM WILL APPROACH THE AREA...THEN MOVE
THROUGH THE GREATER PHOENIX AREA...WITH A DRY COLD FRONT...AROUND
18Z FRI. THROUGH 08Z FRI...MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WIND UNDER 8
KNOTS. FROM 08Z FRI THROUGH 23Z FRI...BKN CLDS AOA 15 THSD AGL WITH
CONSIDERABLE VIRGA SHWRS. WEST WINDS INCREASING TO BETWEEN 8 AND 12
KNOTS BETWEEN 18Z-23Z.


SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA AND SOUTHWEST ARIZONA...INCLUDING KIPL AND
KBLH...
A WEAK PACIFIC WEATHER SYSTEM WILL APPROACH THE AREA...THEN MOVE
THROUGH SOUTHEAST CA/COLORADO RIVER VALLEY...WITH A DRY COLD
FRONT...AROUND 12Z FRI. THROUGH 05Z FRI...MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES WITH
LIGHT WIND UNDER 8 KNOTS. FROM 05Z FRI THROUGH 18Z FRI...INCREASING
CLDS BECOMING SCT-BKN AOA 15 THSD AGL WITH OCCASIONAL VIRGA SHWRS BY
11Z FRI. INCREASING NORTHWEST WIND 10 TO 14 KNOTS BETWEEN 16Z FRI
AND 23Z FRI.

AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDED TAFS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS CAN BE EXPECTED SATURDAY BEHIND A
DEPARTING UPPER LOW. HUMIDITIES WILL TREND DOWNWARD SIGNIFICANTLY
SUNDAY AS DRY AIR FROM THE NORTH PUSHES THROUGH THE AREA. BREEZY TO
WINDY CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED AS WELL OVER SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA
AND SOUTHWEST ARIZONA. HOWEVER...WIND SPEEDS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO
REACH CRITICAL THRESHOLDS. EXPECT WINDS SUNDAY TO BE LIGHTER OVER
SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA. LINGERING BREEZINESS CONTINUES MONDAY AND
EXPANDS SOMEWHAT INTO SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA. MEANWHILE...EXPECT
RIDGETOPS TO BE WINDY AND QUITE A BIT STRONGER AT NIGHT THAN THE
VALLEY FLOORS. TEMPERATURES WILL BE A BIT BELOW NORMAL OVERALL. DRY
CONDITIONS CONTINUE THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

&&

.PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

AZ...NONE.

CA...NONE.

&&

$$

VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/PHOENIX

DISCUSSION...MEYERS/CB
AVIATION...VASQUEZ
FIRE WEATHER...AJ





000
FXUS65 KPSR 202139
AFDPSR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PHOENIX AZ
235 PM MST THU NOV 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
CLOUDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE EVENING AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
APPROACHES THE DESERT SOUTHWEST. THE SYSTEM WILL MOVE THROUGH THE
REGION LATE TONIGHT AND FRIDAY...BRINGING CLOUDY SKIES AND COOLER
TEMPERATURES...ALONG WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS. DRY CONDITIONS
WITH BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN PLACE OVER THE WEEKEND AND
LINGER INTO NEXT WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
SATELLITE IMAGERY REVEALS MOSTLY CLEAR/SUNNY SKIES PERSIST ACROSS
ARIZONA THIS AFTERNOON...AS THE NEXT EASTERN PACIFIC LOW CONTINUES
TO MOVE INLAND OVER NORTHERN CALIFORNIA...MID AND HIGH CLOUDS
BEGINNING TO OVERSPREAD SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA AHEAD OF THE TROUGH.
TEMPERATURES ACROSS OUR CWA HAVE ONCE AGAIN WARMED UP INTO THE LOW
70S CWA-WIDE...PHOENIX HITTING 72 DEGREES SO FAR THIS AFTERNOON.
WITH THE INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER THIS EVENING...AND SOME LOCAL
BREEZINESS...OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE A BIT MORE MILD...UP TO 5-8
DEGREES WARMER...ESPECIALLY AT LOCALES ACROSS SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA.

THE CENTER OF THE LOW IS PROGGED TO DROP AND MOVE ACROSS SOUTHERN
CALIFORNIA BY TOMORROW MORNING...AND A SIGNIFICANT LAYER OF MID AND
HIGH CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO OVERSPREAD OUR FORECAST AREA...ALONG
WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN AREAS OF
SOUTHWEST ARIZONA AND SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA...MAINLY OVER JTNP. THE
CENTER OF THE LOW WILL EVENTUALLY TRACK EAST ALONG THE INTERNATIONAL
BORDER...PLACING THE BEST DYNAMICS INTO SOUTHERN AND SOUTHEAST
ARIZONA DURING THE DAY FRIDAY.

MOISTURE IS RATHER LIMITED WITH THIS SYSTEM AS IT MOVES THROUGH THE
STATE...WITH FORECAST PRECIPITABLE WATER ONLY NUDGING ABOVE 0.50IN
FOR A BRIEF PERIOD. AS SUCH...CHANCES FOR DECENT RAINFALL ARE NOT
VERY HIGH AND QPF WILL BE LOW...MOSTLY LESS THAN ONE TENTH OF AN
INCH WHERE IT DOES RAIN...THE BEST PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL FOCUS
OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN AREAS EAST OF PHOENIX. GIVEN THE INCREASED
MID AND HIGH CLOUDINESS ON FRIDAY...HIGH TEMPS WILL FALL OFF SEVERAL
DEGREES WITH THE CENTRAL ARIZONA DESERTS LOWERING INTO THE UPPER 60S.

THE LOW IS FORECAST TO DIVE QUICKLY TO THE SOUTHEAST AND EXIT THE
STATE OVERNIGHT FRIDAY NIGHT LEAVING BEHIND A COOL DRY SUBSIDENT
NORTHWEST FLOW. UNDER MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES...EXPECT LITTLE CHANGE IN
HIGH TEMPS SATURDAY...AND READINGS WILL STAY SLIGHTLY BELOW SEASONAL
NORMALS AT MANY SITES. THE EASTERN PACIFIC RIDGE WILL BEGIN TO
AMPLIFY OFF THE WEST COAST SUNDAY...WHILE ANOTHER SHORT WAVE WILL
RIDE DOWN THE EASTERN PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE AND BRUSH THROUGH
NORTHEAST ARIZONA/4-CORNERS AREA. THIS SYSTEM WILL BE DRY...BRINGING
LITTLE CLOUD COVER BUT IT WILL IMPORT ANOTHER SHOT OF COOLER AIR...
SO FORECAST HIGHS ON MONDAY WILL DROP INTO THE MID TO UPPER 60S.

DRY NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL BUILD INTO THE AREA TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY FOR A SLOW WARMING TREND AND NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES
RIGHT BEFORE THE THANKSGIVING DAY HOLIDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...
SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA INCLUDING KPHX...KIWA...AND KSDL...SOUTHEAST
CALIFORNIA AND SOUTHWEST ARIZONA...INCLUDING KIPL AND KBLH...

LIGHT WINDS TODAY AND TONIGHT. APPROACHING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL
LEAD TO INCREASING CLOUDS LATER TONIGHT STARTING WITH CIRRUS AND
PROGRESSIVELY GETTING THICKER. VIRGA AND POSSIBLY SOME SPOTTY
SPRINKLES DEVELOPING OVER SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA AFTER 06Z FRIDAY.
BASES EXPECTED TO REMAIN ABOVE 10 KFT MSL THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY.

AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDED TAFS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS CAN BE EXPECTED SATURDAY BEHIND A
DEPARTING UPPER LOW. HUMIDITIES WILL TREND DOWNWARD SIGNIFICANTLY
SUNDAY AS DRY AIR FROM THE NORTH PUSHES THROUGH THE AREA. BREEZY TO
WINDY CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED AS WELL OVER SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA
AND SOUTHWEST ARIZONA. HOWEVER...WIND SPEEDS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO
REACH CRITICAL THRESHOLDS. EXPECT WINDS SUNDAY TO BE LIGHTER OVER
SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA. LINGERING BREEZINESS CONTINUES MONDAY AND
EXPANDS SOMEWHAT INTO SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA. MEANWHILE...EXPECT
RIDGETOPS TO BE WINDY AND QUITE A BIT STRONGER AT NIGHT THAN THE
VALLEY FLOORS. TEMPERATURES WILL BE A BIT BELOW NORMAL OVERALL. DRY
CONDITIONS CONTINUE THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

&&

.PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

AZ...NONE.

CA...NONE.

&&

$$

VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/PHOENIX

DISCUSSION...MEYERS/CB
AVIATION...AJ
FIRE WEATHER...AJ






000
FXUS65 KPSR 202139
AFDPSR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PHOENIX AZ
235 PM MST THU NOV 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
CLOUDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE EVENING AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
APPROACHES THE DESERT SOUTHWEST. THE SYSTEM WILL MOVE THROUGH THE
REGION LATE TONIGHT AND FRIDAY...BRINGING CLOUDY SKIES AND COOLER
TEMPERATURES...ALONG WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS. DRY CONDITIONS
WITH BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN PLACE OVER THE WEEKEND AND
LINGER INTO NEXT WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
SATELLITE IMAGERY REVEALS MOSTLY CLEAR/SUNNY SKIES PERSIST ACROSS
ARIZONA THIS AFTERNOON...AS THE NEXT EASTERN PACIFIC LOW CONTINUES
TO MOVE INLAND OVER NORTHERN CALIFORNIA...MID AND HIGH CLOUDS
BEGINNING TO OVERSPREAD SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA AHEAD OF THE TROUGH.
TEMPERATURES ACROSS OUR CWA HAVE ONCE AGAIN WARMED UP INTO THE LOW
70S CWA-WIDE...PHOENIX HITTING 72 DEGREES SO FAR THIS AFTERNOON.
WITH THE INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER THIS EVENING...AND SOME LOCAL
BREEZINESS...OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE A BIT MORE MILD...UP TO 5-8
DEGREES WARMER...ESPECIALLY AT LOCALES ACROSS SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA.

THE CENTER OF THE LOW IS PROGGED TO DROP AND MOVE ACROSS SOUTHERN
CALIFORNIA BY TOMORROW MORNING...AND A SIGNIFICANT LAYER OF MID AND
HIGH CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO OVERSPREAD OUR FORECAST AREA...ALONG
WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN AREAS OF
SOUTHWEST ARIZONA AND SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA...MAINLY OVER JTNP. THE
CENTER OF THE LOW WILL EVENTUALLY TRACK EAST ALONG THE INTERNATIONAL
BORDER...PLACING THE BEST DYNAMICS INTO SOUTHERN AND SOUTHEAST
ARIZONA DURING THE DAY FRIDAY.

MOISTURE IS RATHER LIMITED WITH THIS SYSTEM AS IT MOVES THROUGH THE
STATE...WITH FORECAST PRECIPITABLE WATER ONLY NUDGING ABOVE 0.50IN
FOR A BRIEF PERIOD. AS SUCH...CHANCES FOR DECENT RAINFALL ARE NOT
VERY HIGH AND QPF WILL BE LOW...MOSTLY LESS THAN ONE TENTH OF AN
INCH WHERE IT DOES RAIN...THE BEST PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL FOCUS
OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN AREAS EAST OF PHOENIX. GIVEN THE INCREASED
MID AND HIGH CLOUDINESS ON FRIDAY...HIGH TEMPS WILL FALL OFF SEVERAL
DEGREES WITH THE CENTRAL ARIZONA DESERTS LOWERING INTO THE UPPER 60S.

THE LOW IS FORECAST TO DIVE QUICKLY TO THE SOUTHEAST AND EXIT THE
STATE OVERNIGHT FRIDAY NIGHT LEAVING BEHIND A COOL DRY SUBSIDENT
NORTHWEST FLOW. UNDER MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES...EXPECT LITTLE CHANGE IN
HIGH TEMPS SATURDAY...AND READINGS WILL STAY SLIGHTLY BELOW SEASONAL
NORMALS AT MANY SITES. THE EASTERN PACIFIC RIDGE WILL BEGIN TO
AMPLIFY OFF THE WEST COAST SUNDAY...WHILE ANOTHER SHORT WAVE WILL
RIDE DOWN THE EASTERN PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE AND BRUSH THROUGH
NORTHEAST ARIZONA/4-CORNERS AREA. THIS SYSTEM WILL BE DRY...BRINGING
LITTLE CLOUD COVER BUT IT WILL IMPORT ANOTHER SHOT OF COOLER AIR...
SO FORECAST HIGHS ON MONDAY WILL DROP INTO THE MID TO UPPER 60S.

DRY NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL BUILD INTO THE AREA TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY FOR A SLOW WARMING TREND AND NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES
RIGHT BEFORE THE THANKSGIVING DAY HOLIDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...
SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA INCLUDING KPHX...KIWA...AND KSDL...SOUTHEAST
CALIFORNIA AND SOUTHWEST ARIZONA...INCLUDING KIPL AND KBLH...

LIGHT WINDS TODAY AND TONIGHT. APPROACHING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL
LEAD TO INCREASING CLOUDS LATER TONIGHT STARTING WITH CIRRUS AND
PROGRESSIVELY GETTING THICKER. VIRGA AND POSSIBLY SOME SPOTTY
SPRINKLES DEVELOPING OVER SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA AFTER 06Z FRIDAY.
BASES EXPECTED TO REMAIN ABOVE 10 KFT MSL THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY.

AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDED TAFS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS CAN BE EXPECTED SATURDAY BEHIND A
DEPARTING UPPER LOW. HUMIDITIES WILL TREND DOWNWARD SIGNIFICANTLY
SUNDAY AS DRY AIR FROM THE NORTH PUSHES THROUGH THE AREA. BREEZY TO
WINDY CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED AS WELL OVER SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA
AND SOUTHWEST ARIZONA. HOWEVER...WIND SPEEDS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO
REACH CRITICAL THRESHOLDS. EXPECT WINDS SUNDAY TO BE LIGHTER OVER
SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA. LINGERING BREEZINESS CONTINUES MONDAY AND
EXPANDS SOMEWHAT INTO SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA. MEANWHILE...EXPECT
RIDGETOPS TO BE WINDY AND QUITE A BIT STRONGER AT NIGHT THAN THE
VALLEY FLOORS. TEMPERATURES WILL BE A BIT BELOW NORMAL OVERALL. DRY
CONDITIONS CONTINUE THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

&&

.PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

AZ...NONE.

CA...NONE.

&&

$$

VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/PHOENIX

DISCUSSION...MEYERS/CB
AVIATION...AJ
FIRE WEATHER...AJ





000
FXUS65 KPSR 201649
AFDPSR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PHOENIX AZ
945 AM MST THU NOV 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A BRIEF PERIOD OF SUNNY SKIES IS EXPECTED TODAY BEFORE CONDITIONS
QUICKLY CHANGE AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH THE DESERT
SOUTHWEST TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. THE SYSTEM WILL BRING
CLOUDY SKIES AND COOLER TEMPERATURES ALONG WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
SHOWERS. DRY CONDITIONS WITH BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN
PLACE OVER THE WEEKEND AND LINGER INTO NEXT WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
A DRIER QUASI-ZONAL FLOW IS IN PLACE OVER THE DESERT SOUTHWEST
TODAY...CURRENT SATELLITE IMAGERY REVEALS MOSTLY CLEAR/SUNNY SKIES
ACROSS THE REGION. THE NEXT EASTERN PACIFIC LOW IS SPINNING OFF THE
COAST OF OREGON/NORTHERN CA...WITH BANDS OF SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS MOVING ASHORE/INLAND. THE BOUNDARY LAYER REMAINS QUITE
DRY...AREA SOUNDINGS/KTWC-KFGZ SHOWING LITTLE CHANGE IN 850-700MB
TEMPS OVER THE LAST 24 HOURS...SO THERE WILL NOT BE MUCH OF A
SENSIBLE CHANGE IN OUR DAYTIME HIGHS THIS AFTERNOON...TEMPERATURES
STILL EXPECTED TO TOP OUT IN THE LOW 70S FOR THE LOWER DESERTS. NICE
BEAUTIFUL WEATHER COMPARED TO OTHER PARTS OF THE CONUS THAT ARE
STILL EXPERIENCING FRIGID TEMPS AND PILES OF SNOW.

THE WEATHER PATTERN WILL CHANGE OVERNIGHT INTO FRIDAY AS THE UPPER
LEVEL LOW OVER NORTHERN CALIFORNIA CONTINUES TO DIVE SOUTHEAST OVER
ARIZONA. THIS SYSTEM WILL BRING INCREASING CLOUDS AND A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF SHOWERS MAINLY ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN AREAS OF SOUTHWEST
ARIZONA AND SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA...MAINLY OVER JTNP BY EARLY FRIDAY
MORNING. THE LATEST MODELS ALL CONTINUE TO QUICKLY TRACK THE CENTER
OF THE LOW TO THE EAST...SWINGING IT ALONG THE INTERNATIONAL
BORDER...THUS PLACING THE BEST DYNAMICS INTO SOUTHERN AND SE ARIZONA
DURING THE DAY FRIDAY. MOISTURE IS RATHER LIMITED WITH THIS SYSTEM
AS IT MOVES THROUGH THE REGION...WITH FORECAST PRECIPITABLE WATER
ONLY NUDGING ABOVE 0.50IN FOR A BRIEF PERIOD. AS SUCH...CHANCES FOR
DECENT RAINFALL ARE NOT VERY HIGH AND QPF WILL BE LOW OVER THE
DESERTS...MOSTLY LESS THAN ONE TENTH OF AN INCH WHERE IT DOES RAIN.
WILL KEEP POP TRENDS MORE OR LESS AS IS AND CALL FOR SLIGHT CHANCES
FOR RAIN SHOWERS ON FRIDAY ACROSS SOUTH-CENTRAL AZ...BETTER
PRECIPITATION CHANCES OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN AREAS EAST OF PHOENIX.
GIVEN THE INCREASED MID AND HIGH CLOUDINESS ON FRIDAY...HIGH TEMPS
WILL FALL OFF SEVERAL DEGREES WITH THE CENTRAL DESERTS LOWERING INTO
THE UPPER 60S.

THE LOW IS FORECAST TO DIVE QUICKLY TO THE SOUTHEAST AND EXIT THE
STATE OVERNIGHT FRIDAY NIGHT LEAVING BEHIND A COOL DRY SUBSIDENT
NORTHWEST FLOW. UNDER MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES...EXPECT LITTLE CHANGE IN
HIGH TEMPS SATURDAY...AND READINGS WILL STAY SLIGHTLY BELOW SEASONAL
NORMALS AT MANY SITES. THE EASTERN PACIFIC RIDGE WILL BEGIN TO
AMPLIFY OFF THE WEST COAST SUNDAY...WHILE ANOTHER SHORT WAVE WILL
RIDE DOWN THE EASTERN PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE AND BRUSH THROUGH
NORTHEAST ARIZONA/4-CORNERS AREA. THIS SYSTEM WILL BE DRY...BRINGING
LITTLE CLOUD COVER...BUT IT WILL IMPORT ANOTHER SHOT OF COOLER AIR
AND FORECAST HIGHS ON MONDAY DROPPING A FEW DEGREES. THE CENTRAL
DESERTS WILL LIKELY FALL OFF A FEW DEGREES...DOWN INTO THE MID TO
UPPER 60S.

DRY NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL BUILD INTO THE AREA TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY FOR A SLOW WARMING TREND. HIGH TEMPS WILL CLIMB TO NEAR
OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL BY WEDNESDAY AS SKIES REMAIN MOSTLY SUNNY.

&&

.AVIATION...
SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA INCLUDING KPHX...KIWA...AND KSDL...SOUTHEAST
CALIFORNIA AND SOUTHWEST ARIZONA...INCLUDING KIPL AND KBLH...

LIGHT WINDS TODAY AND TONIGHT. APPROACHING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL
LEAD TO INCREASING CLOUDS LATER TONIGHT STARTING WITH CIRRUS AND
PROGRESSIVELY GETTING THICKER. VIRGA AND POSSIBLY SOME SPOTTY
SPRINKLES DEVELOPING OVER SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA AFTER 06Z FRIDAY.
BASES EXPECTED TO REMAIN ABOVE 10 KFT MSL THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY.

AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDED TAFS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS CAN BE EXPECTED SATURDAY BEHIND A
DEPARTING UPPER LOW. HUMIDITIES WILL TREND DOWNWARD SIGNIFICANTLY
SUNDAY AS DRY AIR FROM THE NORTH PUSHES THROUGH THE AREA. BREEZY TO
WINDY CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED AS WELL OVER SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA
AND SOUTHWEST ARIZONA. HOWEVER...WIND SPEEDS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO
REACH CRITICAL THRESHOLDS. EXPECT WINDS SUNDAY TO BE LIGHTER OVER
SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA. LINGERING BREEZINESS CONTINUES MONDAY AND
EXPANDS SOMEWHAT INTO SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA. MEANWHILE...EXPECT
RIDGETOPS TO BE WINDY AND QUITE A BIT STRONGER AT NIGHT THAN THE
VALLEY FLOORS. TEMPERATURES WILL BE A BIT BELOW NORMAL OVERALL. DRY
CONDITIONS CONTINUE THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

&&

.PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

AZ...NONE.

CA...NONE.

&&

$$

VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/PHOENIX

DISCUSSION...MEYERS/CB
AVIATION...AJ
FIRE WEATHER...AJ





000
FXUS65 KPSR 201649
AFDPSR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PHOENIX AZ
945 AM MST THU NOV 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A BRIEF PERIOD OF SUNNY SKIES IS EXPECTED TODAY BEFORE CONDITIONS
QUICKLY CHANGE AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH THE DESERT
SOUTHWEST TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. THE SYSTEM WILL BRING
CLOUDY SKIES AND COOLER TEMPERATURES ALONG WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
SHOWERS. DRY CONDITIONS WITH BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN
PLACE OVER THE WEEKEND AND LINGER INTO NEXT WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
A DRIER QUASI-ZONAL FLOW IS IN PLACE OVER THE DESERT SOUTHWEST
TODAY...CURRENT SATELLITE IMAGERY REVEALS MOSTLY CLEAR/SUNNY SKIES
ACROSS THE REGION. THE NEXT EASTERN PACIFIC LOW IS SPINNING OFF THE
COAST OF OREGON/NORTHERN CA...WITH BANDS OF SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS MOVING ASHORE/INLAND. THE BOUNDARY LAYER REMAINS QUITE
DRY...AREA SOUNDINGS/KTWC-KFGZ SHOWING LITTLE CHANGE IN 850-700MB
TEMPS OVER THE LAST 24 HOURS...SO THERE WILL NOT BE MUCH OF A
SENSIBLE CHANGE IN OUR DAYTIME HIGHS THIS AFTERNOON...TEMPERATURES
STILL EXPECTED TO TOP OUT IN THE LOW 70S FOR THE LOWER DESERTS. NICE
BEAUTIFUL WEATHER COMPARED TO OTHER PARTS OF THE CONUS THAT ARE
STILL EXPERIENCING FRIGID TEMPS AND PILES OF SNOW.

THE WEATHER PATTERN WILL CHANGE OVERNIGHT INTO FRIDAY AS THE UPPER
LEVEL LOW OVER NORTHERN CALIFORNIA CONTINUES TO DIVE SOUTHEAST OVER
ARIZONA. THIS SYSTEM WILL BRING INCREASING CLOUDS AND A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF SHOWERS MAINLY ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN AREAS OF SOUTHWEST
ARIZONA AND SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA...MAINLY OVER JTNP BY EARLY FRIDAY
MORNING. THE LATEST MODELS ALL CONTINUE TO QUICKLY TRACK THE CENTER
OF THE LOW TO THE EAST...SWINGING IT ALONG THE INTERNATIONAL
BORDER...THUS PLACING THE BEST DYNAMICS INTO SOUTHERN AND SE ARIZONA
DURING THE DAY FRIDAY. MOISTURE IS RATHER LIMITED WITH THIS SYSTEM
AS IT MOVES THROUGH THE REGION...WITH FORECAST PRECIPITABLE WATER
ONLY NUDGING ABOVE 0.50IN FOR A BRIEF PERIOD. AS SUCH...CHANCES FOR
DECENT RAINFALL ARE NOT VERY HIGH AND QPF WILL BE LOW OVER THE
DESERTS...MOSTLY LESS THAN ONE TENTH OF AN INCH WHERE IT DOES RAIN.
WILL KEEP POP TRENDS MORE OR LESS AS IS AND CALL FOR SLIGHT CHANCES
FOR RAIN SHOWERS ON FRIDAY ACROSS SOUTH-CENTRAL AZ...BETTER
PRECIPITATION CHANCES OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN AREAS EAST OF PHOENIX.
GIVEN THE INCREASED MID AND HIGH CLOUDINESS ON FRIDAY...HIGH TEMPS
WILL FALL OFF SEVERAL DEGREES WITH THE CENTRAL DESERTS LOWERING INTO
THE UPPER 60S.

THE LOW IS FORECAST TO DIVE QUICKLY TO THE SOUTHEAST AND EXIT THE
STATE OVERNIGHT FRIDAY NIGHT LEAVING BEHIND A COOL DRY SUBSIDENT
NORTHWEST FLOW. UNDER MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES...EXPECT LITTLE CHANGE IN
HIGH TEMPS SATURDAY...AND READINGS WILL STAY SLIGHTLY BELOW SEASONAL
NORMALS AT MANY SITES. THE EASTERN PACIFIC RIDGE WILL BEGIN TO
AMPLIFY OFF THE WEST COAST SUNDAY...WHILE ANOTHER SHORT WAVE WILL
RIDE DOWN THE EASTERN PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE AND BRUSH THROUGH
NORTHEAST ARIZONA/4-CORNERS AREA. THIS SYSTEM WILL BE DRY...BRINGING
LITTLE CLOUD COVER...BUT IT WILL IMPORT ANOTHER SHOT OF COOLER AIR
AND FORECAST HIGHS ON MONDAY DROPPING A FEW DEGREES. THE CENTRAL
DESERTS WILL LIKELY FALL OFF A FEW DEGREES...DOWN INTO THE MID TO
UPPER 60S.

DRY NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL BUILD INTO THE AREA TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY FOR A SLOW WARMING TREND. HIGH TEMPS WILL CLIMB TO NEAR
OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL BY WEDNESDAY AS SKIES REMAIN MOSTLY SUNNY.

&&

.AVIATION...
SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA INCLUDING KPHX...KIWA...AND KSDL...SOUTHEAST
CALIFORNIA AND SOUTHWEST ARIZONA...INCLUDING KIPL AND KBLH...

LIGHT WINDS TODAY AND TONIGHT. APPROACHING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL
LEAD TO INCREASING CLOUDS LATER TONIGHT STARTING WITH CIRRUS AND
PROGRESSIVELY GETTING THICKER. VIRGA AND POSSIBLY SOME SPOTTY
SPRINKLES DEVELOPING OVER SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA AFTER 06Z FRIDAY.
BASES EXPECTED TO REMAIN ABOVE 10 KFT MSL THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY.

AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDED TAFS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS CAN BE EXPECTED SATURDAY BEHIND A
DEPARTING UPPER LOW. HUMIDITIES WILL TREND DOWNWARD SIGNIFICANTLY
SUNDAY AS DRY AIR FROM THE NORTH PUSHES THROUGH THE AREA. BREEZY TO
WINDY CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED AS WELL OVER SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA
AND SOUTHWEST ARIZONA. HOWEVER...WIND SPEEDS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO
REACH CRITICAL THRESHOLDS. EXPECT WINDS SUNDAY TO BE LIGHTER OVER
SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA. LINGERING BREEZINESS CONTINUES MONDAY AND
EXPANDS SOMEWHAT INTO SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA. MEANWHILE...EXPECT
RIDGETOPS TO BE WINDY AND QUITE A BIT STRONGER AT NIGHT THAN THE
VALLEY FLOORS. TEMPERATURES WILL BE A BIT BELOW NORMAL OVERALL. DRY
CONDITIONS CONTINUE THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

&&

.PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

AZ...NONE.

CA...NONE.

&&

$$

VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/PHOENIX

DISCUSSION...MEYERS/CB
AVIATION...AJ
FIRE WEATHER...AJ





000
FXUS65 KPSR 201649
AFDPSR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PHOENIX AZ
945 AM MST THU NOV 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A BRIEF PERIOD OF SUNNY SKIES IS EXPECTED TODAY BEFORE CONDITIONS
QUICKLY CHANGE AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH THE DESERT
SOUTHWEST TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. THE SYSTEM WILL BRING
CLOUDY SKIES AND COOLER TEMPERATURES ALONG WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
SHOWERS. DRY CONDITIONS WITH BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN
PLACE OVER THE WEEKEND AND LINGER INTO NEXT WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
A DRIER QUASI-ZONAL FLOW IS IN PLACE OVER THE DESERT SOUTHWEST
TODAY...CURRENT SATELLITE IMAGERY REVEALS MOSTLY CLEAR/SUNNY SKIES
ACROSS THE REGION. THE NEXT EASTERN PACIFIC LOW IS SPINNING OFF THE
COAST OF OREGON/NORTHERN CA...WITH BANDS OF SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS MOVING ASHORE/INLAND. THE BOUNDARY LAYER REMAINS QUITE
DRY...AREA SOUNDINGS/KTWC-KFGZ SHOWING LITTLE CHANGE IN 850-700MB
TEMPS OVER THE LAST 24 HOURS...SO THERE WILL NOT BE MUCH OF A
SENSIBLE CHANGE IN OUR DAYTIME HIGHS THIS AFTERNOON...TEMPERATURES
STILL EXPECTED TO TOP OUT IN THE LOW 70S FOR THE LOWER DESERTS. NICE
BEAUTIFUL WEATHER COMPARED TO OTHER PARTS OF THE CONUS THAT ARE
STILL EXPERIENCING FRIGID TEMPS AND PILES OF SNOW.

THE WEATHER PATTERN WILL CHANGE OVERNIGHT INTO FRIDAY AS THE UPPER
LEVEL LOW OVER NORTHERN CALIFORNIA CONTINUES TO DIVE SOUTHEAST OVER
ARIZONA. THIS SYSTEM WILL BRING INCREASING CLOUDS AND A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF SHOWERS MAINLY ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN AREAS OF SOUTHWEST
ARIZONA AND SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA...MAINLY OVER JTNP BY EARLY FRIDAY
MORNING. THE LATEST MODELS ALL CONTINUE TO QUICKLY TRACK THE CENTER
OF THE LOW TO THE EAST...SWINGING IT ALONG THE INTERNATIONAL
BORDER...THUS PLACING THE BEST DYNAMICS INTO SOUTHERN AND SE ARIZONA
DURING THE DAY FRIDAY. MOISTURE IS RATHER LIMITED WITH THIS SYSTEM
AS IT MOVES THROUGH THE REGION...WITH FORECAST PRECIPITABLE WATER
ONLY NUDGING ABOVE 0.50IN FOR A BRIEF PERIOD. AS SUCH...CHANCES FOR
DECENT RAINFALL ARE NOT VERY HIGH AND QPF WILL BE LOW OVER THE
DESERTS...MOSTLY LESS THAN ONE TENTH OF AN INCH WHERE IT DOES RAIN.
WILL KEEP POP TRENDS MORE OR LESS AS IS AND CALL FOR SLIGHT CHANCES
FOR RAIN SHOWERS ON FRIDAY ACROSS SOUTH-CENTRAL AZ...BETTER
PRECIPITATION CHANCES OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN AREAS EAST OF PHOENIX.
GIVEN THE INCREASED MID AND HIGH CLOUDINESS ON FRIDAY...HIGH TEMPS
WILL FALL OFF SEVERAL DEGREES WITH THE CENTRAL DESERTS LOWERING INTO
THE UPPER 60S.

THE LOW IS FORECAST TO DIVE QUICKLY TO THE SOUTHEAST AND EXIT THE
STATE OVERNIGHT FRIDAY NIGHT LEAVING BEHIND A COOL DRY SUBSIDENT
NORTHWEST FLOW. UNDER MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES...EXPECT LITTLE CHANGE IN
HIGH TEMPS SATURDAY...AND READINGS WILL STAY SLIGHTLY BELOW SEASONAL
NORMALS AT MANY SITES. THE EASTERN PACIFIC RIDGE WILL BEGIN TO
AMPLIFY OFF THE WEST COAST SUNDAY...WHILE ANOTHER SHORT WAVE WILL
RIDE DOWN THE EASTERN PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE AND BRUSH THROUGH
NORTHEAST ARIZONA/4-CORNERS AREA. THIS SYSTEM WILL BE DRY...BRINGING
LITTLE CLOUD COVER...BUT IT WILL IMPORT ANOTHER SHOT OF COOLER AIR
AND FORECAST HIGHS ON MONDAY DROPPING A FEW DEGREES. THE CENTRAL
DESERTS WILL LIKELY FALL OFF A FEW DEGREES...DOWN INTO THE MID TO
UPPER 60S.

DRY NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL BUILD INTO THE AREA TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY FOR A SLOW WARMING TREND. HIGH TEMPS WILL CLIMB TO NEAR
OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL BY WEDNESDAY AS SKIES REMAIN MOSTLY SUNNY.

&&

.AVIATION...
SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA INCLUDING KPHX...KIWA...AND KSDL...SOUTHEAST
CALIFORNIA AND SOUTHWEST ARIZONA...INCLUDING KIPL AND KBLH...

LIGHT WINDS TODAY AND TONIGHT. APPROACHING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL
LEAD TO INCREASING CLOUDS LATER TONIGHT STARTING WITH CIRRUS AND
PROGRESSIVELY GETTING THICKER. VIRGA AND POSSIBLY SOME SPOTTY
SPRINKLES DEVELOPING OVER SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA AFTER 06Z FRIDAY.
BASES EXPECTED TO REMAIN ABOVE 10 KFT MSL THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY.

AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDED TAFS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS CAN BE EXPECTED SATURDAY BEHIND A
DEPARTING UPPER LOW. HUMIDITIES WILL TREND DOWNWARD SIGNIFICANTLY
SUNDAY AS DRY AIR FROM THE NORTH PUSHES THROUGH THE AREA. BREEZY TO
WINDY CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED AS WELL OVER SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA
AND SOUTHWEST ARIZONA. HOWEVER...WIND SPEEDS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO
REACH CRITICAL THRESHOLDS. EXPECT WINDS SUNDAY TO BE LIGHTER OVER
SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA. LINGERING BREEZINESS CONTINUES MONDAY AND
EXPANDS SOMEWHAT INTO SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA. MEANWHILE...EXPECT
RIDGETOPS TO BE WINDY AND QUITE A BIT STRONGER AT NIGHT THAN THE
VALLEY FLOORS. TEMPERATURES WILL BE A BIT BELOW NORMAL OVERALL. DRY
CONDITIONS CONTINUE THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

&&

.PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

AZ...NONE.

CA...NONE.

&&

$$

VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/PHOENIX

DISCUSSION...MEYERS/CB
AVIATION...AJ
FIRE WEATHER...AJ





000
FXUS65 KPSR 201649
AFDPSR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PHOENIX AZ
945 AM MST THU NOV 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A BRIEF PERIOD OF SUNNY SKIES IS EXPECTED TODAY BEFORE CONDITIONS
QUICKLY CHANGE AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH THE DESERT
SOUTHWEST TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. THE SYSTEM WILL BRING
CLOUDY SKIES AND COOLER TEMPERATURES ALONG WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
SHOWERS. DRY CONDITIONS WITH BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN
PLACE OVER THE WEEKEND AND LINGER INTO NEXT WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
A DRIER QUASI-ZONAL FLOW IS IN PLACE OVER THE DESERT SOUTHWEST
TODAY...CURRENT SATELLITE IMAGERY REVEALS MOSTLY CLEAR/SUNNY SKIES
ACROSS THE REGION. THE NEXT EASTERN PACIFIC LOW IS SPINNING OFF THE
COAST OF OREGON/NORTHERN CA...WITH BANDS OF SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS MOVING ASHORE/INLAND. THE BOUNDARY LAYER REMAINS QUITE
DRY...AREA SOUNDINGS/KTWC-KFGZ SHOWING LITTLE CHANGE IN 850-700MB
TEMPS OVER THE LAST 24 HOURS...SO THERE WILL NOT BE MUCH OF A
SENSIBLE CHANGE IN OUR DAYTIME HIGHS THIS AFTERNOON...TEMPERATURES
STILL EXPECTED TO TOP OUT IN THE LOW 70S FOR THE LOWER DESERTS. NICE
BEAUTIFUL WEATHER COMPARED TO OTHER PARTS OF THE CONUS THAT ARE
STILL EXPERIENCING FRIGID TEMPS AND PILES OF SNOW.

THE WEATHER PATTERN WILL CHANGE OVERNIGHT INTO FRIDAY AS THE UPPER
LEVEL LOW OVER NORTHERN CALIFORNIA CONTINUES TO DIVE SOUTHEAST OVER
ARIZONA. THIS SYSTEM WILL BRING INCREASING CLOUDS AND A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF SHOWERS MAINLY ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN AREAS OF SOUTHWEST
ARIZONA AND SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA...MAINLY OVER JTNP BY EARLY FRIDAY
MORNING. THE LATEST MODELS ALL CONTINUE TO QUICKLY TRACK THE CENTER
OF THE LOW TO THE EAST...SWINGING IT ALONG THE INTERNATIONAL
BORDER...THUS PLACING THE BEST DYNAMICS INTO SOUTHERN AND SE ARIZONA
DURING THE DAY FRIDAY. MOISTURE IS RATHER LIMITED WITH THIS SYSTEM
AS IT MOVES THROUGH THE REGION...WITH FORECAST PRECIPITABLE WATER
ONLY NUDGING ABOVE 0.50IN FOR A BRIEF PERIOD. AS SUCH...CHANCES FOR
DECENT RAINFALL ARE NOT VERY HIGH AND QPF WILL BE LOW OVER THE
DESERTS...MOSTLY LESS THAN ONE TENTH OF AN INCH WHERE IT DOES RAIN.
WILL KEEP POP TRENDS MORE OR LESS AS IS AND CALL FOR SLIGHT CHANCES
FOR RAIN SHOWERS ON FRIDAY ACROSS SOUTH-CENTRAL AZ...BETTER
PRECIPITATION CHANCES OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN AREAS EAST OF PHOENIX.
GIVEN THE INCREASED MID AND HIGH CLOUDINESS ON FRIDAY...HIGH TEMPS
WILL FALL OFF SEVERAL DEGREES WITH THE CENTRAL DESERTS LOWERING INTO
THE UPPER 60S.

THE LOW IS FORECAST TO DIVE QUICKLY TO THE SOUTHEAST AND EXIT THE
STATE OVERNIGHT FRIDAY NIGHT LEAVING BEHIND A COOL DRY SUBSIDENT
NORTHWEST FLOW. UNDER MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES...EXPECT LITTLE CHANGE IN
HIGH TEMPS SATURDAY...AND READINGS WILL STAY SLIGHTLY BELOW SEASONAL
NORMALS AT MANY SITES. THE EASTERN PACIFIC RIDGE WILL BEGIN TO
AMPLIFY OFF THE WEST COAST SUNDAY...WHILE ANOTHER SHORT WAVE WILL
RIDE DOWN THE EASTERN PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE AND BRUSH THROUGH
NORTHEAST ARIZONA/4-CORNERS AREA. THIS SYSTEM WILL BE DRY...BRINGING
LITTLE CLOUD COVER...BUT IT WILL IMPORT ANOTHER SHOT OF COOLER AIR
AND FORECAST HIGHS ON MONDAY DROPPING A FEW DEGREES. THE CENTRAL
DESERTS WILL LIKELY FALL OFF A FEW DEGREES...DOWN INTO THE MID TO
UPPER 60S.

DRY NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL BUILD INTO THE AREA TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY FOR A SLOW WARMING TREND. HIGH TEMPS WILL CLIMB TO NEAR
OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL BY WEDNESDAY AS SKIES REMAIN MOSTLY SUNNY.

&&

.AVIATION...
SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA INCLUDING KPHX...KIWA...AND KSDL...SOUTHEAST
CALIFORNIA AND SOUTHWEST ARIZONA...INCLUDING KIPL AND KBLH...

LIGHT WINDS TODAY AND TONIGHT. APPROACHING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL
LEAD TO INCREASING CLOUDS LATER TONIGHT STARTING WITH CIRRUS AND
PROGRESSIVELY GETTING THICKER. VIRGA AND POSSIBLY SOME SPOTTY
SPRINKLES DEVELOPING OVER SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA AFTER 06Z FRIDAY.
BASES EXPECTED TO REMAIN ABOVE 10 KFT MSL THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY.

AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDED TAFS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS CAN BE EXPECTED SATURDAY BEHIND A
DEPARTING UPPER LOW. HUMIDITIES WILL TREND DOWNWARD SIGNIFICANTLY
SUNDAY AS DRY AIR FROM THE NORTH PUSHES THROUGH THE AREA. BREEZY TO
WINDY CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED AS WELL OVER SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA
AND SOUTHWEST ARIZONA. HOWEVER...WIND SPEEDS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO
REACH CRITICAL THRESHOLDS. EXPECT WINDS SUNDAY TO BE LIGHTER OVER
SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA. LINGERING BREEZINESS CONTINUES MONDAY AND
EXPANDS SOMEWHAT INTO SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA. MEANWHILE...EXPECT
RIDGETOPS TO BE WINDY AND QUITE A BIT STRONGER AT NIGHT THAN THE
VALLEY FLOORS. TEMPERATURES WILL BE A BIT BELOW NORMAL OVERALL. DRY
CONDITIONS CONTINUE THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

&&

.PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

AZ...NONE.

CA...NONE.

&&

$$

VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/PHOENIX

DISCUSSION...MEYERS/CB
AVIATION...AJ
FIRE WEATHER...AJ





000
FXUS65 KTWC 201648
AFDTWC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ
945 AM MST THU NOV 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...DRY CONDITIONS WITH SEASONABLE DAYTIME TEMPERATURES WILL
CONTINUE TODAY. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL THEN BRING ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED VALLEY RAIN AND MOUNTAIN SNOW SHOWERS FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND
FRIDAY NIGHT. ONLY LIGHT PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED. DRY
CONDITIONS WITH A SLOW WARMING TREND WILL THEN PREVAIL SATURDAY
THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...IR/VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS
INDICATE CLEAR SKIES ACROSS SE AZ AT THIS TIME. A VERY DRY REGIME
CONTINUES WITH DEWPOINTS VALID 16Z RANGING FROM THE UPPER SINGLE
DIGITS TO THE LOWER 20S. 20/12Z KTWC SOUNDING TOTAL PRECIP WATER
VALUE WAS 0.25 INCH. 20/12Z UPPER AIR PLOTS DEPICTED A RIDGE AXIS
EXTENDING FROM WRN NEW MEXICO NWD INTO WRN MONTANA...A DEEP TROUGH
OVER THE ERN CONUS...AND A 551 DM LOW CENTERED OFF THE OREGON COAST
VICINITY OF 43N/130W. MODERATE TO STRONG WLY FLOW ABOVE 700 MB
PREVAILED ACROSS SE AZ.

BASED ON SATELLITE TRENDS AS WELL AS THE 20/12Z NAM...HAVE TRENDED
THE GRIDDED DATA SKY VALUES DOWNWARD TODAY. THUS...EXPECT CLEAR
SKIES ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA THIS MORNING...THEN SOME INCREASE IN
THIN CIRRIFORM CLOUDS MAINLY NW OF TUCSON THIS AFTERNOON. HIGH TEMPS
THIS AFTERNOON FOR MOST LOCALES WILL BE WITHIN A DEGREE-OR-TWO OF
TEMPS ACHIEVED THUR.

HAVE NOTED THAT THE 20/12Z NAM/GFS POPS SUGGEST THAT INCREASED POP
VALUES MAY BE NECESSARY FRI AFTERNOON/EVENING. WILL AWAIT THE FULL
RECEIPT OF THE 20/12Z ECMWF BEFORE MAKING THIS CHANGE TO THE
INHERITED OFFICIAL FORECAST. THIS NOTION WILL BE ADDRESSED IN THE
AFTERNOON DISCUSSION. PLEASE REFER TO THE ADDITIONAL SECTIONS FOR
FURTHER DETAIL.

&&

.AVIATION...VALID THRU 21/12Z.
CLEAR SKIES FOR MUCH OF SE AZ TODAY THEN GRADUALLY INCREASING CLOUDS
ABOVE 20K FT AGL THIS EVENING INTO EARLY FRIDAY MORNING AS A LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. SURFACE WIND THRU EARLY
FRIDAY MORNING WILL GENERALLY BE LESS THAN 10 KTS. AVIATION
DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR TAF AMENDMENTS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...DRY CONDITIONS WITH LIGHT TERRAIN DRIVEN WINDS WILL
PREVAIL TODAY. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BRING ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS WITH PERHAPS A FEW MOUNTAIN SNOW SHOWERS LATE
FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND FRIDAY NIGHT. DRY CONDITIONS WILL THEN CONTINUE
THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM PASSING
TO THE NORTH OF THE REGION SUNDAY WILL BRING GUSTY WEST TO NORTHWEST
WINDS TO THE AREA. THE UPPER GILA VALLEY MAY SEE WINDS OF 10-15 MPH
WITH GUSTS OF 25-30 MPH. SLIGHTLY ELEVATED EASTERLY WINDS ARE
EXPECTED OVERNIGHT MONDAY AND INTO TUESDAY MORNING.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...OUR NEXT WEATHER MAKER IS SEEN OVER THE EASTERN
PACIFIC WATERS WEST OF THE OREGON AND NORTHERN CALIFORNIA COASTS AND
IS MOVING EAST SOUTHEAST. THIS SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO MOVE ONSHORE
INTO NORTHERN CALIFORNIA THIS AFTERNOON AND THEN DIVE SOUTHEAST
THROUGH CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA LATE TONIGHT/EARLY FRIDAY
BEFORE MAKING ITS WAY INTO WESTERN ARIZONA AND NORTHWESTERN SONORA
ON FRIDAY. MODELS INDICATE THAT THIS SYSTEM WILL HAVE ENOUGH
ASSOCIATED MOISTURE TO JUSTIFY SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR DESERT/VALLEY
LOCATIONS AND LOW END CHANCE CATEGORY POPS FOR THE MOUNTAINS. THE
BEST TIMING FOR PRECIP WITH THIS SYSTEM SEEMS TO BE LATE FRIDAY
AFTERNOON AND INTO THE EVENING HOURS. THAT SAID...I MADE SOME
ADJUSTMENTS TO THE POP FORECAST TO REFLECT THIS NOTION. RAINFALL
AMOUNTS WITH THIS SYSTEM ARE EXPECTED TO BE VERY LIGHT...GENERALLY
RANGING FROM JUST A TRACE ON THE LOW END TO PERHAPS A THIRD OF AN
INCH ON THE HIGH END. SNOWFALL LEVELS EXPECTED TO FALL TO AROUND 7K
FEET AS THIS SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH...SO ANY SNOW ON MOUNTAIN TOPS
WILL BE VERY LIGHT WITH LITTLE TO NO ACCUMULATION EXPECTED.

ONCE THIS SYSTEM EXITS TO THE EAST EARLY SATURDAY...ANOTHER LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BE MOVING THROUGH THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST AND
INTERMOUNTAIN WEST WITH THE TAIL END OF THIS SYSTEM BRUSHING THROUGH
THE FOUR CORNERS REGION EARLY SUNDAY AND INTO NEW MEXICO BY LATE IN
THE DAY. SOME MOISTURE WILL ACCOMPANY THIS SYSTEM...BUT IT SHOULD
REMAIN TO THE NORTH OF MY FORECAST AREA...SO FOR NOW I HAVE NO
MENTION OF POPS IN THE TEXT PRODUCTS OF THE FORECAST...BUT DO SHOW
THE `SILENT` SINGLE DIGIT POPS IN THE GRIDS.

ONCE THIS SYSTEM EXITS QUICKLY TO THE EAST...RIDGING WILL BUILD IN
FROM THE WEST FOR A WARMUP IN TEMPERATURES FOR EARLY TO MIDDLE OF
NEXT WEEK. ECWMF SHOWS A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE MOVING ACROSS
ARIZONA ON THANKSGIVING DAY...WHILE THE GFS SHOW A HIGHLY AMPLIFIED
RIDGE EXTENDING FROM ARIZONA INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. GFS
ENSEMBLE MEMBERS ALL SHOWED RIDGING DURING THIS TIME WITH JUST ONE
MEMBER SHOWING A TROUGH. HOWEVER...THIS IS ONE DAY BEYOND MY
OFFICIAL FORECAST PERIOD...SO STAY TUNED TO SUBSEQUENT FORECASTS TO
SEE WHAT THE MODELS WANT TO DO LATE NEXT WEEK.

FOR TUCSON...HIGH TEMPERATURES GENERALLY NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE
NORMAL TODAY...THEN 2 TO 3 DEGS BELOW NORMAL FRIDAY THROUGH
MONDAY...WITH THE COOLEST DAY OCCURRING ON FRIDAY. ABOVE NORMAL
HIGHS FOR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY OF NEXT WEEK. LOW TEMPERATURES WILL
HOVER WITHIN A DEGREE OR TWO EITHER SIDE OF NORMAL THROUGH NEXT
WEDNESDAY.

&&

.TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...YOUTUBE...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/TUCSON

FRANCIS
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...MOLLERE





000
FXUS65 KTWC 201648
AFDTWC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ
945 AM MST THU NOV 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...DRY CONDITIONS WITH SEASONABLE DAYTIME TEMPERATURES WILL
CONTINUE TODAY. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL THEN BRING ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED VALLEY RAIN AND MOUNTAIN SNOW SHOWERS FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND
FRIDAY NIGHT. ONLY LIGHT PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED. DRY
CONDITIONS WITH A SLOW WARMING TREND WILL THEN PREVAIL SATURDAY
THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...IR/VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS
INDICATE CLEAR SKIES ACROSS SE AZ AT THIS TIME. A VERY DRY REGIME
CONTINUES WITH DEWPOINTS VALID 16Z RANGING FROM THE UPPER SINGLE
DIGITS TO THE LOWER 20S. 20/12Z KTWC SOUNDING TOTAL PRECIP WATER
VALUE WAS 0.25 INCH. 20/12Z UPPER AIR PLOTS DEPICTED A RIDGE AXIS
EXTENDING FROM WRN NEW MEXICO NWD INTO WRN MONTANA...A DEEP TROUGH
OVER THE ERN CONUS...AND A 551 DM LOW CENTERED OFF THE OREGON COAST
VICINITY OF 43N/130W. MODERATE TO STRONG WLY FLOW ABOVE 700 MB
PREVAILED ACROSS SE AZ.

BASED ON SATELLITE TRENDS AS WELL AS THE 20/12Z NAM...HAVE TRENDED
THE GRIDDED DATA SKY VALUES DOWNWARD TODAY. THUS...EXPECT CLEAR
SKIES ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA THIS MORNING...THEN SOME INCREASE IN
THIN CIRRIFORM CLOUDS MAINLY NW OF TUCSON THIS AFTERNOON. HIGH TEMPS
THIS AFTERNOON FOR MOST LOCALES WILL BE WITHIN A DEGREE-OR-TWO OF
TEMPS ACHIEVED THUR.

HAVE NOTED THAT THE 20/12Z NAM/GFS POPS SUGGEST THAT INCREASED POP
VALUES MAY BE NECESSARY FRI AFTERNOON/EVENING. WILL AWAIT THE FULL
RECEIPT OF THE 20/12Z ECMWF BEFORE MAKING THIS CHANGE TO THE
INHERITED OFFICIAL FORECAST. THIS NOTION WILL BE ADDRESSED IN THE
AFTERNOON DISCUSSION. PLEASE REFER TO THE ADDITIONAL SECTIONS FOR
FURTHER DETAIL.

&&

.AVIATION...VALID THRU 21/12Z.
CLEAR SKIES FOR MUCH OF SE AZ TODAY THEN GRADUALLY INCREASING CLOUDS
ABOVE 20K FT AGL THIS EVENING INTO EARLY FRIDAY MORNING AS A LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. SURFACE WIND THRU EARLY
FRIDAY MORNING WILL GENERALLY BE LESS THAN 10 KTS. AVIATION
DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR TAF AMENDMENTS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...DRY CONDITIONS WITH LIGHT TERRAIN DRIVEN WINDS WILL
PREVAIL TODAY. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BRING ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS WITH PERHAPS A FEW MOUNTAIN SNOW SHOWERS LATE
FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND FRIDAY NIGHT. DRY CONDITIONS WILL THEN CONTINUE
THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM PASSING
TO THE NORTH OF THE REGION SUNDAY WILL BRING GUSTY WEST TO NORTHWEST
WINDS TO THE AREA. THE UPPER GILA VALLEY MAY SEE WINDS OF 10-15 MPH
WITH GUSTS OF 25-30 MPH. SLIGHTLY ELEVATED EASTERLY WINDS ARE
EXPECTED OVERNIGHT MONDAY AND INTO TUESDAY MORNING.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...OUR NEXT WEATHER MAKER IS SEEN OVER THE EASTERN
PACIFIC WATERS WEST OF THE OREGON AND NORTHERN CALIFORNIA COASTS AND
IS MOVING EAST SOUTHEAST. THIS SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO MOVE ONSHORE
INTO NORTHERN CALIFORNIA THIS AFTERNOON AND THEN DIVE SOUTHEAST
THROUGH CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA LATE TONIGHT/EARLY FRIDAY
BEFORE MAKING ITS WAY INTO WESTERN ARIZONA AND NORTHWESTERN SONORA
ON FRIDAY. MODELS INDICATE THAT THIS SYSTEM WILL HAVE ENOUGH
ASSOCIATED MOISTURE TO JUSTIFY SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR DESERT/VALLEY
LOCATIONS AND LOW END CHANCE CATEGORY POPS FOR THE MOUNTAINS. THE
BEST TIMING FOR PRECIP WITH THIS SYSTEM SEEMS TO BE LATE FRIDAY
AFTERNOON AND INTO THE EVENING HOURS. THAT SAID...I MADE SOME
ADJUSTMENTS TO THE POP FORECAST TO REFLECT THIS NOTION. RAINFALL
AMOUNTS WITH THIS SYSTEM ARE EXPECTED TO BE VERY LIGHT...GENERALLY
RANGING FROM JUST A TRACE ON THE LOW END TO PERHAPS A THIRD OF AN
INCH ON THE HIGH END. SNOWFALL LEVELS EXPECTED TO FALL TO AROUND 7K
FEET AS THIS SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH...SO ANY SNOW ON MOUNTAIN TOPS
WILL BE VERY LIGHT WITH LITTLE TO NO ACCUMULATION EXPECTED.

ONCE THIS SYSTEM EXITS TO THE EAST EARLY SATURDAY...ANOTHER LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BE MOVING THROUGH THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST AND
INTERMOUNTAIN WEST WITH THE TAIL END OF THIS SYSTEM BRUSHING THROUGH
THE FOUR CORNERS REGION EARLY SUNDAY AND INTO NEW MEXICO BY LATE IN
THE DAY. SOME MOISTURE WILL ACCOMPANY THIS SYSTEM...BUT IT SHOULD
REMAIN TO THE NORTH OF MY FORECAST AREA...SO FOR NOW I HAVE NO
MENTION OF POPS IN THE TEXT PRODUCTS OF THE FORECAST...BUT DO SHOW
THE `SILENT` SINGLE DIGIT POPS IN THE GRIDS.

ONCE THIS SYSTEM EXITS QUICKLY TO THE EAST...RIDGING WILL BUILD IN
FROM THE WEST FOR A WARMUP IN TEMPERATURES FOR EARLY TO MIDDLE OF
NEXT WEEK. ECWMF SHOWS A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE MOVING ACROSS
ARIZONA ON THANKSGIVING DAY...WHILE THE GFS SHOW A HIGHLY AMPLIFIED
RIDGE EXTENDING FROM ARIZONA INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. GFS
ENSEMBLE MEMBERS ALL SHOWED RIDGING DURING THIS TIME WITH JUST ONE
MEMBER SHOWING A TROUGH. HOWEVER...THIS IS ONE DAY BEYOND MY
OFFICIAL FORECAST PERIOD...SO STAY TUNED TO SUBSEQUENT FORECASTS TO
SEE WHAT THE MODELS WANT TO DO LATE NEXT WEEK.

FOR TUCSON...HIGH TEMPERATURES GENERALLY NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE
NORMAL TODAY...THEN 2 TO 3 DEGS BELOW NORMAL FRIDAY THROUGH
MONDAY...WITH THE COOLEST DAY OCCURRING ON FRIDAY. ABOVE NORMAL
HIGHS FOR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY OF NEXT WEEK. LOW TEMPERATURES WILL
HOVER WITHIN A DEGREE OR TWO EITHER SIDE OF NORMAL THROUGH NEXT
WEDNESDAY.

&&

.TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...YOUTUBE...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/TUCSON

FRANCIS
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...MOLLERE





000
FXUS65 KTWC 201648
AFDTWC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ
945 AM MST THU NOV 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...DRY CONDITIONS WITH SEASONABLE DAYTIME TEMPERATURES WILL
CONTINUE TODAY. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL THEN BRING ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED VALLEY RAIN AND MOUNTAIN SNOW SHOWERS FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND
FRIDAY NIGHT. ONLY LIGHT PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED. DRY
CONDITIONS WITH A SLOW WARMING TREND WILL THEN PREVAIL SATURDAY
THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...IR/VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS
INDICATE CLEAR SKIES ACROSS SE AZ AT THIS TIME. A VERY DRY REGIME
CONTINUES WITH DEWPOINTS VALID 16Z RANGING FROM THE UPPER SINGLE
DIGITS TO THE LOWER 20S. 20/12Z KTWC SOUNDING TOTAL PRECIP WATER
VALUE WAS 0.25 INCH. 20/12Z UPPER AIR PLOTS DEPICTED A RIDGE AXIS
EXTENDING FROM WRN NEW MEXICO NWD INTO WRN MONTANA...A DEEP TROUGH
OVER THE ERN CONUS...AND A 551 DM LOW CENTERED OFF THE OREGON COAST
VICINITY OF 43N/130W. MODERATE TO STRONG WLY FLOW ABOVE 700 MB
PREVAILED ACROSS SE AZ.

BASED ON SATELLITE TRENDS AS WELL AS THE 20/12Z NAM...HAVE TRENDED
THE GRIDDED DATA SKY VALUES DOWNWARD TODAY. THUS...EXPECT CLEAR
SKIES ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA THIS MORNING...THEN SOME INCREASE IN
THIN CIRRIFORM CLOUDS MAINLY NW OF TUCSON THIS AFTERNOON. HIGH TEMPS
THIS AFTERNOON FOR MOST LOCALES WILL BE WITHIN A DEGREE-OR-TWO OF
TEMPS ACHIEVED THUR.

HAVE NOTED THAT THE 20/12Z NAM/GFS POPS SUGGEST THAT INCREASED POP
VALUES MAY BE NECESSARY FRI AFTERNOON/EVENING. WILL AWAIT THE FULL
RECEIPT OF THE 20/12Z ECMWF BEFORE MAKING THIS CHANGE TO THE
INHERITED OFFICIAL FORECAST. THIS NOTION WILL BE ADDRESSED IN THE
AFTERNOON DISCUSSION. PLEASE REFER TO THE ADDITIONAL SECTIONS FOR
FURTHER DETAIL.

&&

.AVIATION...VALID THRU 21/12Z.
CLEAR SKIES FOR MUCH OF SE AZ TODAY THEN GRADUALLY INCREASING CLOUDS
ABOVE 20K FT AGL THIS EVENING INTO EARLY FRIDAY MORNING AS A LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. SURFACE WIND THRU EARLY
FRIDAY MORNING WILL GENERALLY BE LESS THAN 10 KTS. AVIATION
DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR TAF AMENDMENTS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...DRY CONDITIONS WITH LIGHT TERRAIN DRIVEN WINDS WILL
PREVAIL TODAY. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BRING ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS WITH PERHAPS A FEW MOUNTAIN SNOW SHOWERS LATE
FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND FRIDAY NIGHT. DRY CONDITIONS WILL THEN CONTINUE
THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM PASSING
TO THE NORTH OF THE REGION SUNDAY WILL BRING GUSTY WEST TO NORTHWEST
WINDS TO THE AREA. THE UPPER GILA VALLEY MAY SEE WINDS OF 10-15 MPH
WITH GUSTS OF 25-30 MPH. SLIGHTLY ELEVATED EASTERLY WINDS ARE
EXPECTED OVERNIGHT MONDAY AND INTO TUESDAY MORNING.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...OUR NEXT WEATHER MAKER IS SEEN OVER THE EASTERN
PACIFIC WATERS WEST OF THE OREGON AND NORTHERN CALIFORNIA COASTS AND
IS MOVING EAST SOUTHEAST. THIS SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO MOVE ONSHORE
INTO NORTHERN CALIFORNIA THIS AFTERNOON AND THEN DIVE SOUTHEAST
THROUGH CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA LATE TONIGHT/EARLY FRIDAY
BEFORE MAKING ITS WAY INTO WESTERN ARIZONA AND NORTHWESTERN SONORA
ON FRIDAY. MODELS INDICATE THAT THIS SYSTEM WILL HAVE ENOUGH
ASSOCIATED MOISTURE TO JUSTIFY SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR DESERT/VALLEY
LOCATIONS AND LOW END CHANCE CATEGORY POPS FOR THE MOUNTAINS. THE
BEST TIMING FOR PRECIP WITH THIS SYSTEM SEEMS TO BE LATE FRIDAY
AFTERNOON AND INTO THE EVENING HOURS. THAT SAID...I MADE SOME
ADJUSTMENTS TO THE POP FORECAST TO REFLECT THIS NOTION. RAINFALL
AMOUNTS WITH THIS SYSTEM ARE EXPECTED TO BE VERY LIGHT...GENERALLY
RANGING FROM JUST A TRACE ON THE LOW END TO PERHAPS A THIRD OF AN
INCH ON THE HIGH END. SNOWFALL LEVELS EXPECTED TO FALL TO AROUND 7K
FEET AS THIS SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH...SO ANY SNOW ON MOUNTAIN TOPS
WILL BE VERY LIGHT WITH LITTLE TO NO ACCUMULATION EXPECTED.

ONCE THIS SYSTEM EXITS TO THE EAST EARLY SATURDAY...ANOTHER LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BE MOVING THROUGH THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST AND
INTERMOUNTAIN WEST WITH THE TAIL END OF THIS SYSTEM BRUSHING THROUGH
THE FOUR CORNERS REGION EARLY SUNDAY AND INTO NEW MEXICO BY LATE IN
THE DAY. SOME MOISTURE WILL ACCOMPANY THIS SYSTEM...BUT IT SHOULD
REMAIN TO THE NORTH OF MY FORECAST AREA...SO FOR NOW I HAVE NO
MENTION OF POPS IN THE TEXT PRODUCTS OF THE FORECAST...BUT DO SHOW
THE `SILENT` SINGLE DIGIT POPS IN THE GRIDS.

ONCE THIS SYSTEM EXITS QUICKLY TO THE EAST...RIDGING WILL BUILD IN
FROM THE WEST FOR A WARMUP IN TEMPERATURES FOR EARLY TO MIDDLE OF
NEXT WEEK. ECWMF SHOWS A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE MOVING ACROSS
ARIZONA ON THANKSGIVING DAY...WHILE THE GFS SHOW A HIGHLY AMPLIFIED
RIDGE EXTENDING FROM ARIZONA INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. GFS
ENSEMBLE MEMBERS ALL SHOWED RIDGING DURING THIS TIME WITH JUST ONE
MEMBER SHOWING A TROUGH. HOWEVER...THIS IS ONE DAY BEYOND MY
OFFICIAL FORECAST PERIOD...SO STAY TUNED TO SUBSEQUENT FORECASTS TO
SEE WHAT THE MODELS WANT TO DO LATE NEXT WEEK.

FOR TUCSON...HIGH TEMPERATURES GENERALLY NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE
NORMAL TODAY...THEN 2 TO 3 DEGS BELOW NORMAL FRIDAY THROUGH
MONDAY...WITH THE COOLEST DAY OCCURRING ON FRIDAY. ABOVE NORMAL
HIGHS FOR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY OF NEXT WEEK. LOW TEMPERATURES WILL
HOVER WITHIN A DEGREE OR TWO EITHER SIDE OF NORMAL THROUGH NEXT
WEDNESDAY.

&&

.TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...YOUTUBE...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/TUCSON

FRANCIS
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...MOLLERE





000
FXUS65 KTWC 201648
AFDTWC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ
945 AM MST THU NOV 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...DRY CONDITIONS WITH SEASONABLE DAYTIME TEMPERATURES WILL
CONTINUE TODAY. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL THEN BRING ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED VALLEY RAIN AND MOUNTAIN SNOW SHOWERS FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND
FRIDAY NIGHT. ONLY LIGHT PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED. DRY
CONDITIONS WITH A SLOW WARMING TREND WILL THEN PREVAIL SATURDAY
THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...IR/VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS
INDICATE CLEAR SKIES ACROSS SE AZ AT THIS TIME. A VERY DRY REGIME
CONTINUES WITH DEWPOINTS VALID 16Z RANGING FROM THE UPPER SINGLE
DIGITS TO THE LOWER 20S. 20/12Z KTWC SOUNDING TOTAL PRECIP WATER
VALUE WAS 0.25 INCH. 20/12Z UPPER AIR PLOTS DEPICTED A RIDGE AXIS
EXTENDING FROM WRN NEW MEXICO NWD INTO WRN MONTANA...A DEEP TROUGH
OVER THE ERN CONUS...AND A 551 DM LOW CENTERED OFF THE OREGON COAST
VICINITY OF 43N/130W. MODERATE TO STRONG WLY FLOW ABOVE 700 MB
PREVAILED ACROSS SE AZ.

BASED ON SATELLITE TRENDS AS WELL AS THE 20/12Z NAM...HAVE TRENDED
THE GRIDDED DATA SKY VALUES DOWNWARD TODAY. THUS...EXPECT CLEAR
SKIES ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA THIS MORNING...THEN SOME INCREASE IN
THIN CIRRIFORM CLOUDS MAINLY NW OF TUCSON THIS AFTERNOON. HIGH TEMPS
THIS AFTERNOON FOR MOST LOCALES WILL BE WITHIN A DEGREE-OR-TWO OF
TEMPS ACHIEVED THUR.

HAVE NOTED THAT THE 20/12Z NAM/GFS POPS SUGGEST THAT INCREASED POP
VALUES MAY BE NECESSARY FRI AFTERNOON/EVENING. WILL AWAIT THE FULL
RECEIPT OF THE 20/12Z ECMWF BEFORE MAKING THIS CHANGE TO THE
INHERITED OFFICIAL FORECAST. THIS NOTION WILL BE ADDRESSED IN THE
AFTERNOON DISCUSSION. PLEASE REFER TO THE ADDITIONAL SECTIONS FOR
FURTHER DETAIL.

&&

.AVIATION...VALID THRU 21/12Z.
CLEAR SKIES FOR MUCH OF SE AZ TODAY THEN GRADUALLY INCREASING CLOUDS
ABOVE 20K FT AGL THIS EVENING INTO EARLY FRIDAY MORNING AS A LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. SURFACE WIND THRU EARLY
FRIDAY MORNING WILL GENERALLY BE LESS THAN 10 KTS. AVIATION
DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR TAF AMENDMENTS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...DRY CONDITIONS WITH LIGHT TERRAIN DRIVEN WINDS WILL
PREVAIL TODAY. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BRING ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS WITH PERHAPS A FEW MOUNTAIN SNOW SHOWERS LATE
FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND FRIDAY NIGHT. DRY CONDITIONS WILL THEN CONTINUE
THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM PASSING
TO THE NORTH OF THE REGION SUNDAY WILL BRING GUSTY WEST TO NORTHWEST
WINDS TO THE AREA. THE UPPER GILA VALLEY MAY SEE WINDS OF 10-15 MPH
WITH GUSTS OF 25-30 MPH. SLIGHTLY ELEVATED EASTERLY WINDS ARE
EXPECTED OVERNIGHT MONDAY AND INTO TUESDAY MORNING.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...OUR NEXT WEATHER MAKER IS SEEN OVER THE EASTERN
PACIFIC WATERS WEST OF THE OREGON AND NORTHERN CALIFORNIA COASTS AND
IS MOVING EAST SOUTHEAST. THIS SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO MOVE ONSHORE
INTO NORTHERN CALIFORNIA THIS AFTERNOON AND THEN DIVE SOUTHEAST
THROUGH CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA LATE TONIGHT/EARLY FRIDAY
BEFORE MAKING ITS WAY INTO WESTERN ARIZONA AND NORTHWESTERN SONORA
ON FRIDAY. MODELS INDICATE THAT THIS SYSTEM WILL HAVE ENOUGH
ASSOCIATED MOISTURE TO JUSTIFY SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR DESERT/VALLEY
LOCATIONS AND LOW END CHANCE CATEGORY POPS FOR THE MOUNTAINS. THE
BEST TIMING FOR PRECIP WITH THIS SYSTEM SEEMS TO BE LATE FRIDAY
AFTERNOON AND INTO THE EVENING HOURS. THAT SAID...I MADE SOME
ADJUSTMENTS TO THE POP FORECAST TO REFLECT THIS NOTION. RAINFALL
AMOUNTS WITH THIS SYSTEM ARE EXPECTED TO BE VERY LIGHT...GENERALLY
RANGING FROM JUST A TRACE ON THE LOW END TO PERHAPS A THIRD OF AN
INCH ON THE HIGH END. SNOWFALL LEVELS EXPECTED TO FALL TO AROUND 7K
FEET AS THIS SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH...SO ANY SNOW ON MOUNTAIN TOPS
WILL BE VERY LIGHT WITH LITTLE TO NO ACCUMULATION EXPECTED.

ONCE THIS SYSTEM EXITS TO THE EAST EARLY SATURDAY...ANOTHER LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BE MOVING THROUGH THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST AND
INTERMOUNTAIN WEST WITH THE TAIL END OF THIS SYSTEM BRUSHING THROUGH
THE FOUR CORNERS REGION EARLY SUNDAY AND INTO NEW MEXICO BY LATE IN
THE DAY. SOME MOISTURE WILL ACCOMPANY THIS SYSTEM...BUT IT SHOULD
REMAIN TO THE NORTH OF MY FORECAST AREA...SO FOR NOW I HAVE NO
MENTION OF POPS IN THE TEXT PRODUCTS OF THE FORECAST...BUT DO SHOW
THE `SILENT` SINGLE DIGIT POPS IN THE GRIDS.

ONCE THIS SYSTEM EXITS QUICKLY TO THE EAST...RIDGING WILL BUILD IN
FROM THE WEST FOR A WARMUP IN TEMPERATURES FOR EARLY TO MIDDLE OF
NEXT WEEK. ECWMF SHOWS A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE MOVING ACROSS
ARIZONA ON THANKSGIVING DAY...WHILE THE GFS SHOW A HIGHLY AMPLIFIED
RIDGE EXTENDING FROM ARIZONA INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. GFS
ENSEMBLE MEMBERS ALL SHOWED RIDGING DURING THIS TIME WITH JUST ONE
MEMBER SHOWING A TROUGH. HOWEVER...THIS IS ONE DAY BEYOND MY
OFFICIAL FORECAST PERIOD...SO STAY TUNED TO SUBSEQUENT FORECASTS TO
SEE WHAT THE MODELS WANT TO DO LATE NEXT WEEK.

FOR TUCSON...HIGH TEMPERATURES GENERALLY NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE
NORMAL TODAY...THEN 2 TO 3 DEGS BELOW NORMAL FRIDAY THROUGH
MONDAY...WITH THE COOLEST DAY OCCURRING ON FRIDAY. ABOVE NORMAL
HIGHS FOR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY OF NEXT WEEK. LOW TEMPERATURES WILL
HOVER WITHIN A DEGREE OR TWO EITHER SIDE OF NORMAL THROUGH NEXT
WEDNESDAY.

&&

.TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...YOUTUBE...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/TUCSON

FRANCIS
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...MOLLERE





000
FXUS65 KFGZ 201628
AFDFGZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ
930 AM MST THU NOV 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A FAST MOVING HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION TODAY
BRINGING MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES...THEN A WEAK DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE ACROSS
NORTHERN ARIZONA ON FRIDAY...BRINGING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS...AND
COOLER CONDITIONS. SNOW LEVELS WILL BE AROUND 6500 FEET. A COUPLE OF
DISTURBANCES WILL MOVE ACROSS THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST NORTH OF
ARIZONA SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...BRINGING BREEZY NORTHWEST TO NORTH
WINDS...A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS ALONG THE ARIZONA UTAH
BORDER...AND NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES.

&&
.DISCUSSION...THE 12Z KFGZ SOUNDING SHOWED A MOIST LAYER BETWEEN 700
AND 600 MB. VISIBLE SATELLITE SHOWED CLOUDS MOVING ACROSS NORTHERN
ARIZONA THIS MORNING...WITH CLOUDS WEST OF A KFGZ-KGCN DISSIPATING
AS THEY MOVED EAST OF THE HIGHER TERRAIN (DOWNSLOPE). MOST OF THIS
CLOUDINESS WILL MOVE INTO NEW MEXICO BY EARLY AFTERNOON. THE CLOUDS
SEEN OVER CALIFORNIA AND NEVADA SHOULD BEGIN TO MOVE OVER ARIZONA
THIS EVENING. CURRENT FORECAST HANDLES SITUATION WELL.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION /356 AM MST/...
A WEAK RIDGE WILL MOVE OVER ARIZONA TODAY WITH MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES
AND SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES.

A WEAK TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE ACROSS WESTERN AND THEN
SOUTHERN ARIZONA ON FRIDAY. THIS WILL BRING THE BEST CHANCE OF LIGHT
SHOWERS AND HIGHER ELEVATION SNOW SHOWERS FROM THE KAIBAB
PLATEAU...AND MOGOLLON RIM. AREAS NORTHEAST OF THE MOGOLLON RIM WILL
JUST HAVE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS. COLDER AIR WILL DROP THE SNOW
LEVEL DOWN TO AROUND 6500 FEET...WITH LIGHT SNOW ACCUMULATION ABOVE
THAT ELEVATION.

ON SATURDAY...A FAST MOVING UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE IS
FORECAST TO  MOVE ACROSS THE REGION...BRINGING DRY CONDITIONS AND
NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES. ANOTHER WEATHER SYSTEM WILL BEGIN TO
EFFECT NORTHERN ARIZONA BY LATE SATURDAY WITH INCREASING WEST TO
NORTHWEST WINDS. ON SUNDAY...THIS SYSTEM WILL MOVE ON TO THE
EAST...BUT WILL HAVE PUSHED A DRY COLD FRONT SOUTHWARD ACROSS
ARIZONA SUNDAY AND MONDAY. THIS WEATHER SYSTEM WILL BRING ONLY A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS TO MAINLY FAR NORTHERN ARIZONA ON SUNDAY.
BREEZY NORTH TO NORTHEAST WINDS AND HIGH TEMPERATURES 4-6 DEGREES
BELOW NORMAL ARE EXPECTED SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY.

TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY OF NEXT WEEK...A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BRING DRY CONDITIONS AND WARMING DAYTIME TEMPERATURES...WITH
HIGH TEMPERATURES RETURNING CLOSE TO NORMAL VALUES BY WEDNESDAY.
NORTH TO NORTHEAST BREEZES ARE FORECAST MAINLY FROM THE MOGOLLON
RIM SOUTHWARD.

FOR THURSDAY OF NEXT WEEK...SOME OF THE MODELS ARE HINTING AT A COLD
TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE MOVING THROUGH THE SOUTHWEST U.S.

&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 18Z PACKAGE...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL TODAY
WITH LIGHT WINDS GENERALLY UNDER 10 KTS. STRATUS DECK ACROSS
NORTHERN AZ FROM KFLG-KINW NORTH EXPECTED TO DIMINISH THIS
AFTERNOON. EXPECT INCREASING THICK MID AND UPPER LEVEL CLOUD COVER
AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING WEATHER SYSTEM AFT 00Z FRIDAY...WITH CHANCES
FOR SHRA/SHSN DEVELOPING PRIMARILY AFT 12Z FRIDAY FROM KFLG-KPAN
WESTWARD. AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDMENTS.

&&

.FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC.........MAS/TC
AVIATION.......MCS

FOR NORTHERN ARIZONA WEATHER INFORMATION VISIT
WEATHER.GOV/FLAGSTAFF













000
FXUS65 KPSR 201225 AAA
AFDPSR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PHOENIX AZ
525 AM MST THU NOV 20 2014

.UPDATE...
UPDATED AVIATION AND FIRE WEATHER SECTIONS.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
A BRIEF PERIOD OF SUNNY SKIES IS EXPECTED TODAY BEFORE CONDITIONS
QUICKLY CHANGE AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH THE DESERT
SOUTHWEST TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. THE SYSTEM WILL BRING
CLOUDY SKIES AND COOLER TEMPERATURES ALONG WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
SHOWERS. DRY CONDITIONS WITH BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN
PLACE OVER THE WEEKEND AND LINGER INTO NEXT WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
DRY WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT IS NOW IN PLACE ACROSS AZ AND FAR SERN CA IN
THE WAKE OF A WEAK DISTURBANCE THAT PASSED THRU THE STATE YESTERDAY.
IR IMAGERY AT 2 AM SHOWED GENLY CLEAR SKIES ACROSS THE AREA. SURFACE
DEWPOINTS AT 1 AM WERE VERY LOW AND MOSTLY RANGED FROM THE TEENS TO
THE 20S OVER THE LOWER DESERTS. DRY WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL PERSIST
TODAY FOR MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES...WITH LITTLE CHANGE IN HIGH TEMPS
EXPECTED AS BOUNDARY LAYER TEMPS WILL REMAIN SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY.

MODEL GUIDANCE REMAINS VERY CONSISTENT IN CALLING FOR A MODEST
CHANGE IN THE WEATHER STARTING LATER TONIGHT...AS A PROGRESSIVE
UPPER LOW JUST OFF THE NRN CA/PAC NW COAST DIVES SOUTHEASTWARD AND
INLAND...AND INTO FAR SERN CA LEADING TO INCREASING CLOUDS AND A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS MAINLY ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN AREAS OF SERN
CA SUCH AS JOSHUA TREE NP. LATEST NAM/GFS/ECMWF ALL TRACK THE UPPER
LOW CENTER EASTWARD ALONG THE SRN AZ BORDER ON FRIDAY...AND AS SUCH
THE BEST DYNAMICS/PVA/UVV TRACKS THRU FAR SOUTHERN AZ AND ACROSS THE
SRN PORTION OF OUR CWA. H5 HEIGHT FALLS ARE MODEST...WITH MAX VALUES
RUNNING AROUND 80-100M...AND UPPER SUPPORT IS NOT OVERLY IMPRESSIVE.
ALSO...GIVEN THE OVERLAND TRAJECTORY OF THE PASSING SYSTEM...
MOISTURE IS NOT EXPECTED TO BE VERY SIGNIFICANT WITH MOST OF THE RH
CONFINED TO THE MID LEVELS...ABOVE 850 MB. FINALLY...FORECAST PWAT
VALUES ONLY RISE TO AROUND ONE HALF INCH ACROSS SRN AZ AS THE SYSTEM
PASSES THROUGH. AS SUCH...CHANCES FOR DECENT RAINFALL ARE NOT VERY
HIGH. QPF WILL BE LOW...MOSTLY LESS THAN ONE TENTH OF AN INCH...
WHERE IT DOES RAIN. WE WILL KEEP POP TRENDS MORE OR LESS AS IS AND
CALL FOR SLIGHT CHANCES FOR RAIN SHOWERS ON FRIDAY ACROSS SOUTH
CENTRAL AZ...WITH POPS IN THE GREATER PHOENIX AREA BETWEEN 10 AND 15
PERCENT. SLIGHTLY HIGHER POPS ARE EXPECTED IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN
AREAS TO THE EAST OF PHOENIX...EVEN THOUGH THE BEST DYNAMICS WILL
TRACK TO THE SOUTH OF GILA COUNTY. GIVEN THE HIGH AMOUNTS OF
MID/HIGH CLOUDS MOVING THRU ON FRIDAY...HIGH TEMPS WILL FALL OFF
SEVERAL DEGREES WITH THE COOLER CENTRAL DESERTS LOWERING INTO THE
UPPER 60S.

THE LOW IS FORECAST TO DIVE QUICKLY TO THE SOUTHEAST AND EXIT THE
STATE OVERNIGHT FRIDAY NIGHT LEAVING BEHIND COOL...DRY SUBSIDENT
NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT...FOR MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES ON SATURDAY. WE EXPECT
LITTLE CHANGE IN HIGH TEMPS SATURDAY ESPECIALLY ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL
AZ WHERE READINGS WILL STAY SLIGHTLY BELOW SEASONAL NORMALS...AND
AROUND 70 DEGREES.

AS THE UPPER RIDGE JUST OFF THE WEST COAST STARTS TO AMPLIFY
SUNDAY...ANOTHER SHORT WAVE WILL RIDE DOWN THE FRONT SIDE AND BRUSH
BY TO OUR NORTHEAST...MAINLY MOVING THROUGH THE CORNERS AREA. THIS
WILL BRING NO PRECIP TO OUR AREA...AND LITTLE IN TERMS OF CLOUD
COVER. IT WILL HOWEVER BRING ANOTHER SHOT OF COOLER AIR...WHICH WILL
LEAD TO HIGH TEMPS ON MONDAY DROPPING A FEW DEGREES. THE CENTRAL
DESERTS WILL LIKELY FALL OFF A FEW DEGREES AND INTO THE MID TO UPPER
60S FOR THE MOST PART UNDER MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES.

DRY NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL BUILD INTO THE AREA FROM THE WEST
TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY FOR A SLOW WARMING TREND. HIGH TEMPS WILL
CLIMB TO NEAR OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL BY WEDNESDAY AS SKIES REMAIN
MOSTLY SUNNY OR SUNNY.

&&

.AVIATION...
SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA INCLUDING KPHX...KIWA...AND KSDL...SOUTHEAST
CALIFORNIA AND SOUTHWEST ARIZONA...INCLUDING KIPL AND KBLH...

LIGHT WINDS TODAY AND TONIGHT. APPROACHING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL
LEAD TO INCREASING CLOUDS LATER TONIGHT STARTING WITH CIRRUS AND
PROGRESSIVELY GETTING THICKER. VIRGA AND POSSIBLY SOME SPOTTY
SPRINKLES DEVELOPING OVER SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA AFTER 06Z FRIDAY.
BASES EXPECTED TO REMAIN ABOVE 10 KFT MSL THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY.

AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDED TAFS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS CAN BE EXPECTED SATURDAY BEHIND A
DEPARTING UPPER LOW. HUMIDITIES WILL TREND DOWNWARD SIGNIFICANTLY
SUNDAY AS DRY AIR FROM THE NORTH PUSHES THROUGH THE AREA. BREEZY TO
WINDY CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED AS WELL OVER SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA
AND SOUTHWEST ARIZONA. HOWEVER...WIND SPEEDS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO
REACH CRITICAL THRESHOLDS. EXPECT WINDS SUNDAY TO BE LIGHTER OVER
SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA. LINGERING BREEZINESS CONTINUES MONDAY AND
EXPANDS SOMEWHAT INTO SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA. MEANWHILE...EXPECT
RIDGETOPS TO BE WINDY AND QUITE A BIT STRONGER AT NIGHT THAN THE
VALLEY FLOORS. TEMPERATURES WILL BE A BIT BELOW NORMAL OVERALL. DRY
CONDITIONS CONTINUE THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

&&

.PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

AZ...NONE.

CA...NONE.

&&

$$

VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/PHOENIX

DISCUSSION...CB
AVIATION...AJ
FIRE WEATHER...AJ















000
FXUS65 KPSR 201225 AAA
AFDPSR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PHOENIX AZ
525 AM MST THU NOV 20 2014

.UPDATE...
UPDATED AVIATION AND FIRE WEATHER SECTIONS.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
A BRIEF PERIOD OF SUNNY SKIES IS EXPECTED TODAY BEFORE CONDITIONS
QUICKLY CHANGE AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH THE DESERT
SOUTHWEST TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. THE SYSTEM WILL BRING
CLOUDY SKIES AND COOLER TEMPERATURES ALONG WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
SHOWERS. DRY CONDITIONS WITH BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN
PLACE OVER THE WEEKEND AND LINGER INTO NEXT WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
DRY WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT IS NOW IN PLACE ACROSS AZ AND FAR SERN CA IN
THE WAKE OF A WEAK DISTURBANCE THAT PASSED THRU THE STATE YESTERDAY.
IR IMAGERY AT 2 AM SHOWED GENLY CLEAR SKIES ACROSS THE AREA. SURFACE
DEWPOINTS AT 1 AM WERE VERY LOW AND MOSTLY RANGED FROM THE TEENS TO
THE 20S OVER THE LOWER DESERTS. DRY WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL PERSIST
TODAY FOR MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES...WITH LITTLE CHANGE IN HIGH TEMPS
EXPECTED AS BOUNDARY LAYER TEMPS WILL REMAIN SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY.

MODEL GUIDANCE REMAINS VERY CONSISTENT IN CALLING FOR A MODEST
CHANGE IN THE WEATHER STARTING LATER TONIGHT...AS A PROGRESSIVE
UPPER LOW JUST OFF THE NRN CA/PAC NW COAST DIVES SOUTHEASTWARD AND
INLAND...AND INTO FAR SERN CA LEADING TO INCREASING CLOUDS AND A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS MAINLY ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN AREAS OF SERN
CA SUCH AS JOSHUA TREE NP. LATEST NAM/GFS/ECMWF ALL TRACK THE UPPER
LOW CENTER EASTWARD ALONG THE SRN AZ BORDER ON FRIDAY...AND AS SUCH
THE BEST DYNAMICS/PVA/UVV TRACKS THRU FAR SOUTHERN AZ AND ACROSS THE
SRN PORTION OF OUR CWA. H5 HEIGHT FALLS ARE MODEST...WITH MAX VALUES
RUNNING AROUND 80-100M...AND UPPER SUPPORT IS NOT OVERLY IMPRESSIVE.
ALSO...GIVEN THE OVERLAND TRAJECTORY OF THE PASSING SYSTEM...
MOISTURE IS NOT EXPECTED TO BE VERY SIGNIFICANT WITH MOST OF THE RH
CONFINED TO THE MID LEVELS...ABOVE 850 MB. FINALLY...FORECAST PWAT
VALUES ONLY RISE TO AROUND ONE HALF INCH ACROSS SRN AZ AS THE SYSTEM
PASSES THROUGH. AS SUCH...CHANCES FOR DECENT RAINFALL ARE NOT VERY
HIGH. QPF WILL BE LOW...MOSTLY LESS THAN ONE TENTH OF AN INCH...
WHERE IT DOES RAIN. WE WILL KEEP POP TRENDS MORE OR LESS AS IS AND
CALL FOR SLIGHT CHANCES FOR RAIN SHOWERS ON FRIDAY ACROSS SOUTH
CENTRAL AZ...WITH POPS IN THE GREATER PHOENIX AREA BETWEEN 10 AND 15
PERCENT. SLIGHTLY HIGHER POPS ARE EXPECTED IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN
AREAS TO THE EAST OF PHOENIX...EVEN THOUGH THE BEST DYNAMICS WILL
TRACK TO THE SOUTH OF GILA COUNTY. GIVEN THE HIGH AMOUNTS OF
MID/HIGH CLOUDS MOVING THRU ON FRIDAY...HIGH TEMPS WILL FALL OFF
SEVERAL DEGREES WITH THE COOLER CENTRAL DESERTS LOWERING INTO THE
UPPER 60S.

THE LOW IS FORECAST TO DIVE QUICKLY TO THE SOUTHEAST AND EXIT THE
STATE OVERNIGHT FRIDAY NIGHT LEAVING BEHIND COOL...DRY SUBSIDENT
NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT...FOR MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES ON SATURDAY. WE EXPECT
LITTLE CHANGE IN HIGH TEMPS SATURDAY ESPECIALLY ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL
AZ WHERE READINGS WILL STAY SLIGHTLY BELOW SEASONAL NORMALS...AND
AROUND 70 DEGREES.

AS THE UPPER RIDGE JUST OFF THE WEST COAST STARTS TO AMPLIFY
SUNDAY...ANOTHER SHORT WAVE WILL RIDE DOWN THE FRONT SIDE AND BRUSH
BY TO OUR NORTHEAST...MAINLY MOVING THROUGH THE CORNERS AREA. THIS
WILL BRING NO PRECIP TO OUR AREA...AND LITTLE IN TERMS OF CLOUD
COVER. IT WILL HOWEVER BRING ANOTHER SHOT OF COOLER AIR...WHICH WILL
LEAD TO HIGH TEMPS ON MONDAY DROPPING A FEW DEGREES. THE CENTRAL
DESERTS WILL LIKELY FALL OFF A FEW DEGREES AND INTO THE MID TO UPPER
60S FOR THE MOST PART UNDER MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES.

DRY NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL BUILD INTO THE AREA FROM THE WEST
TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY FOR A SLOW WARMING TREND. HIGH TEMPS WILL
CLIMB TO NEAR OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL BY WEDNESDAY AS SKIES REMAIN
MOSTLY SUNNY OR SUNNY.

&&

.AVIATION...
SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA INCLUDING KPHX...KIWA...AND KSDL...SOUTHEAST
CALIFORNIA AND SOUTHWEST ARIZONA...INCLUDING KIPL AND KBLH...

LIGHT WINDS TODAY AND TONIGHT. APPROACHING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL
LEAD TO INCREASING CLOUDS LATER TONIGHT STARTING WITH CIRRUS AND
PROGRESSIVELY GETTING THICKER. VIRGA AND POSSIBLY SOME SPOTTY
SPRINKLES DEVELOPING OVER SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA AFTER 06Z FRIDAY.
BASES EXPECTED TO REMAIN ABOVE 10 KFT MSL THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY.

AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDED TAFS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS CAN BE EXPECTED SATURDAY BEHIND A
DEPARTING UPPER LOW. HUMIDITIES WILL TREND DOWNWARD SIGNIFICANTLY
SUNDAY AS DRY AIR FROM THE NORTH PUSHES THROUGH THE AREA. BREEZY TO
WINDY CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED AS WELL OVER SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA
AND SOUTHWEST ARIZONA. HOWEVER...WIND SPEEDS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO
REACH CRITICAL THRESHOLDS. EXPECT WINDS SUNDAY TO BE LIGHTER OVER
SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA. LINGERING BREEZINESS CONTINUES MONDAY AND
EXPANDS SOMEWHAT INTO SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA. MEANWHILE...EXPECT
RIDGETOPS TO BE WINDY AND QUITE A BIT STRONGER AT NIGHT THAN THE
VALLEY FLOORS. TEMPERATURES WILL BE A BIT BELOW NORMAL OVERALL. DRY
CONDITIONS CONTINUE THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

&&

.PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

AZ...NONE.

CA...NONE.

&&

$$

VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/PHOENIX

DISCUSSION...CB
AVIATION...AJ
FIRE WEATHER...AJ















000
FXUS65 KPSR 201225 AAA
AFDPSR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PHOENIX AZ
525 AM MST THU NOV 20 2014

.UPDATE...
UPDATED AVIATION AND FIRE WEATHER SECTIONS.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
A BRIEF PERIOD OF SUNNY SKIES IS EXPECTED TODAY BEFORE CONDITIONS
QUICKLY CHANGE AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH THE DESERT
SOUTHWEST TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. THE SYSTEM WILL BRING
CLOUDY SKIES AND COOLER TEMPERATURES ALONG WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
SHOWERS. DRY CONDITIONS WITH BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN
PLACE OVER THE WEEKEND AND LINGER INTO NEXT WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
DRY WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT IS NOW IN PLACE ACROSS AZ AND FAR SERN CA IN
THE WAKE OF A WEAK DISTURBANCE THAT PASSED THRU THE STATE YESTERDAY.
IR IMAGERY AT 2 AM SHOWED GENLY CLEAR SKIES ACROSS THE AREA. SURFACE
DEWPOINTS AT 1 AM WERE VERY LOW AND MOSTLY RANGED FROM THE TEENS TO
THE 20S OVER THE LOWER DESERTS. DRY WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL PERSIST
TODAY FOR MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES...WITH LITTLE CHANGE IN HIGH TEMPS
EXPECTED AS BOUNDARY LAYER TEMPS WILL REMAIN SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY.

MODEL GUIDANCE REMAINS VERY CONSISTENT IN CALLING FOR A MODEST
CHANGE IN THE WEATHER STARTING LATER TONIGHT...AS A PROGRESSIVE
UPPER LOW JUST OFF THE NRN CA/PAC NW COAST DIVES SOUTHEASTWARD AND
INLAND...AND INTO FAR SERN CA LEADING TO INCREASING CLOUDS AND A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS MAINLY ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN AREAS OF SERN
CA SUCH AS JOSHUA TREE NP. LATEST NAM/GFS/ECMWF ALL TRACK THE UPPER
LOW CENTER EASTWARD ALONG THE SRN AZ BORDER ON FRIDAY...AND AS SUCH
THE BEST DYNAMICS/PVA/UVV TRACKS THRU FAR SOUTHERN AZ AND ACROSS THE
SRN PORTION OF OUR CWA. H5 HEIGHT FALLS ARE MODEST...WITH MAX VALUES
RUNNING AROUND 80-100M...AND UPPER SUPPORT IS NOT OVERLY IMPRESSIVE.
ALSO...GIVEN THE OVERLAND TRAJECTORY OF THE PASSING SYSTEM...
MOISTURE IS NOT EXPECTED TO BE VERY SIGNIFICANT WITH MOST OF THE RH
CONFINED TO THE MID LEVELS...ABOVE 850 MB. FINALLY...FORECAST PWAT
VALUES ONLY RISE TO AROUND ONE HALF INCH ACROSS SRN AZ AS THE SYSTEM
PASSES THROUGH. AS SUCH...CHANCES FOR DECENT RAINFALL ARE NOT VERY
HIGH. QPF WILL BE LOW...MOSTLY LESS THAN ONE TENTH OF AN INCH...
WHERE IT DOES RAIN. WE WILL KEEP POP TRENDS MORE OR LESS AS IS AND
CALL FOR SLIGHT CHANCES FOR RAIN SHOWERS ON FRIDAY ACROSS SOUTH
CENTRAL AZ...WITH POPS IN THE GREATER PHOENIX AREA BETWEEN 10 AND 15
PERCENT. SLIGHTLY HIGHER POPS ARE EXPECTED IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN
AREAS TO THE EAST OF PHOENIX...EVEN THOUGH THE BEST DYNAMICS WILL
TRACK TO THE SOUTH OF GILA COUNTY. GIVEN THE HIGH AMOUNTS OF
MID/HIGH CLOUDS MOVING THRU ON FRIDAY...HIGH TEMPS WILL FALL OFF
SEVERAL DEGREES WITH THE COOLER CENTRAL DESERTS LOWERING INTO THE
UPPER 60S.

THE LOW IS FORECAST TO DIVE QUICKLY TO THE SOUTHEAST AND EXIT THE
STATE OVERNIGHT FRIDAY NIGHT LEAVING BEHIND COOL...DRY SUBSIDENT
NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT...FOR MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES ON SATURDAY. WE EXPECT
LITTLE CHANGE IN HIGH TEMPS SATURDAY ESPECIALLY ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL
AZ WHERE READINGS WILL STAY SLIGHTLY BELOW SEASONAL NORMALS...AND
AROUND 70 DEGREES.

AS THE UPPER RIDGE JUST OFF THE WEST COAST STARTS TO AMPLIFY
SUNDAY...ANOTHER SHORT WAVE WILL RIDE DOWN THE FRONT SIDE AND BRUSH
BY TO OUR NORTHEAST...MAINLY MOVING THROUGH THE CORNERS AREA. THIS
WILL BRING NO PRECIP TO OUR AREA...AND LITTLE IN TERMS OF CLOUD
COVER. IT WILL HOWEVER BRING ANOTHER SHOT OF COOLER AIR...WHICH WILL
LEAD TO HIGH TEMPS ON MONDAY DROPPING A FEW DEGREES. THE CENTRAL
DESERTS WILL LIKELY FALL OFF A FEW DEGREES AND INTO THE MID TO UPPER
60S FOR THE MOST PART UNDER MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES.

DRY NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL BUILD INTO THE AREA FROM THE WEST
TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY FOR A SLOW WARMING TREND. HIGH TEMPS WILL
CLIMB TO NEAR OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL BY WEDNESDAY AS SKIES REMAIN
MOSTLY SUNNY OR SUNNY.

&&

.AVIATION...
SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA INCLUDING KPHX...KIWA...AND KSDL...SOUTHEAST
CALIFORNIA AND SOUTHWEST ARIZONA...INCLUDING KIPL AND KBLH...

LIGHT WINDS TODAY AND TONIGHT. APPROACHING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL
LEAD TO INCREASING CLOUDS LATER TONIGHT STARTING WITH CIRRUS AND
PROGRESSIVELY GETTING THICKER. VIRGA AND POSSIBLY SOME SPOTTY
SPRINKLES DEVELOPING OVER SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA AFTER 06Z FRIDAY.
BASES EXPECTED TO REMAIN ABOVE 10 KFT MSL THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY.

AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDED TAFS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS CAN BE EXPECTED SATURDAY BEHIND A
DEPARTING UPPER LOW. HUMIDITIES WILL TREND DOWNWARD SIGNIFICANTLY
SUNDAY AS DRY AIR FROM THE NORTH PUSHES THROUGH THE AREA. BREEZY TO
WINDY CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED AS WELL OVER SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA
AND SOUTHWEST ARIZONA. HOWEVER...WIND SPEEDS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO
REACH CRITICAL THRESHOLDS. EXPECT WINDS SUNDAY TO BE LIGHTER OVER
SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA. LINGERING BREEZINESS CONTINUES MONDAY AND
EXPANDS SOMEWHAT INTO SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA. MEANWHILE...EXPECT
RIDGETOPS TO BE WINDY AND QUITE A BIT STRONGER AT NIGHT THAN THE
VALLEY FLOORS. TEMPERATURES WILL BE A BIT BELOW NORMAL OVERALL. DRY
CONDITIONS CONTINUE THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

&&

.PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

AZ...NONE.

CA...NONE.

&&

$$

VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/PHOENIX

DISCUSSION...CB
AVIATION...AJ
FIRE WEATHER...AJ















000
FXUS65 KPSR 201225 AAA
AFDPSR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PHOENIX AZ
525 AM MST THU NOV 20 2014

.UPDATE...
UPDATED AVIATION AND FIRE WEATHER SECTIONS.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
A BRIEF PERIOD OF SUNNY SKIES IS EXPECTED TODAY BEFORE CONDITIONS
QUICKLY CHANGE AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH THE DESERT
SOUTHWEST TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. THE SYSTEM WILL BRING
CLOUDY SKIES AND COOLER TEMPERATURES ALONG WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
SHOWERS. DRY CONDITIONS WITH BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN
PLACE OVER THE WEEKEND AND LINGER INTO NEXT WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
DRY WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT IS NOW IN PLACE ACROSS AZ AND FAR SERN CA IN
THE WAKE OF A WEAK DISTURBANCE THAT PASSED THRU THE STATE YESTERDAY.
IR IMAGERY AT 2 AM SHOWED GENLY CLEAR SKIES ACROSS THE AREA. SURFACE
DEWPOINTS AT 1 AM WERE VERY LOW AND MOSTLY RANGED FROM THE TEENS TO
THE 20S OVER THE LOWER DESERTS. DRY WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL PERSIST
TODAY FOR MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES...WITH LITTLE CHANGE IN HIGH TEMPS
EXPECTED AS BOUNDARY LAYER TEMPS WILL REMAIN SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY.

MODEL GUIDANCE REMAINS VERY CONSISTENT IN CALLING FOR A MODEST
CHANGE IN THE WEATHER STARTING LATER TONIGHT...AS A PROGRESSIVE
UPPER LOW JUST OFF THE NRN CA/PAC NW COAST DIVES SOUTHEASTWARD AND
INLAND...AND INTO FAR SERN CA LEADING TO INCREASING CLOUDS AND A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS MAINLY ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN AREAS OF SERN
CA SUCH AS JOSHUA TREE NP. LATEST NAM/GFS/ECMWF ALL TRACK THE UPPER
LOW CENTER EASTWARD ALONG THE SRN AZ BORDER ON FRIDAY...AND AS SUCH
THE BEST DYNAMICS/PVA/UVV TRACKS THRU FAR SOUTHERN AZ AND ACROSS THE
SRN PORTION OF OUR CWA. H5 HEIGHT FALLS ARE MODEST...WITH MAX VALUES
RUNNING AROUND 80-100M...AND UPPER SUPPORT IS NOT OVERLY IMPRESSIVE.
ALSO...GIVEN THE OVERLAND TRAJECTORY OF THE PASSING SYSTEM...
MOISTURE IS NOT EXPECTED TO BE VERY SIGNIFICANT WITH MOST OF THE RH
CONFINED TO THE MID LEVELS...ABOVE 850 MB. FINALLY...FORECAST PWAT
VALUES ONLY RISE TO AROUND ONE HALF INCH ACROSS SRN AZ AS THE SYSTEM
PASSES THROUGH. AS SUCH...CHANCES FOR DECENT RAINFALL ARE NOT VERY
HIGH. QPF WILL BE LOW...MOSTLY LESS THAN ONE TENTH OF AN INCH...
WHERE IT DOES RAIN. WE WILL KEEP POP TRENDS MORE OR LESS AS IS AND
CALL FOR SLIGHT CHANCES FOR RAIN SHOWERS ON FRIDAY ACROSS SOUTH
CENTRAL AZ...WITH POPS IN THE GREATER PHOENIX AREA BETWEEN 10 AND 15
PERCENT. SLIGHTLY HIGHER POPS ARE EXPECTED IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN
AREAS TO THE EAST OF PHOENIX...EVEN THOUGH THE BEST DYNAMICS WILL
TRACK TO THE SOUTH OF GILA COUNTY. GIVEN THE HIGH AMOUNTS OF
MID/HIGH CLOUDS MOVING THRU ON FRIDAY...HIGH TEMPS WILL FALL OFF
SEVERAL DEGREES WITH THE COOLER CENTRAL DESERTS LOWERING INTO THE
UPPER 60S.

THE LOW IS FORECAST TO DIVE QUICKLY TO THE SOUTHEAST AND EXIT THE
STATE OVERNIGHT FRIDAY NIGHT LEAVING BEHIND COOL...DRY SUBSIDENT
NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT...FOR MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES ON SATURDAY. WE EXPECT
LITTLE CHANGE IN HIGH TEMPS SATURDAY ESPECIALLY ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL
AZ WHERE READINGS WILL STAY SLIGHTLY BELOW SEASONAL NORMALS...AND
AROUND 70 DEGREES.

AS THE UPPER RIDGE JUST OFF THE WEST COAST STARTS TO AMPLIFY
SUNDAY...ANOTHER SHORT WAVE WILL RIDE DOWN THE FRONT SIDE AND BRUSH
BY TO OUR NORTHEAST...MAINLY MOVING THROUGH THE CORNERS AREA. THIS
WILL BRING NO PRECIP TO OUR AREA...AND LITTLE IN TERMS OF CLOUD
COVER. IT WILL HOWEVER BRING ANOTHER SHOT OF COOLER AIR...WHICH WILL
LEAD TO HIGH TEMPS ON MONDAY DROPPING A FEW DEGREES. THE CENTRAL
DESERTS WILL LIKELY FALL OFF A FEW DEGREES AND INTO THE MID TO UPPER
60S FOR THE MOST PART UNDER MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES.

DRY NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL BUILD INTO THE AREA FROM THE WEST
TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY FOR A SLOW WARMING TREND. HIGH TEMPS WILL
CLIMB TO NEAR OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL BY WEDNESDAY AS SKIES REMAIN
MOSTLY SUNNY OR SUNNY.

&&

.AVIATION...
SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA INCLUDING KPHX...KIWA...AND KSDL...SOUTHEAST
CALIFORNIA AND SOUTHWEST ARIZONA...INCLUDING KIPL AND KBLH...

LIGHT WINDS TODAY AND TONIGHT. APPROACHING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL
LEAD TO INCREASING CLOUDS LATER TONIGHT STARTING WITH CIRRUS AND
PROGRESSIVELY GETTING THICKER. VIRGA AND POSSIBLY SOME SPOTTY
SPRINKLES DEVELOPING OVER SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA AFTER 06Z FRIDAY.
BASES EXPECTED TO REMAIN ABOVE 10 KFT MSL THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY.

AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDED TAFS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS CAN BE EXPECTED SATURDAY BEHIND A
DEPARTING UPPER LOW. HUMIDITIES WILL TREND DOWNWARD SIGNIFICANTLY
SUNDAY AS DRY AIR FROM THE NORTH PUSHES THROUGH THE AREA. BREEZY TO
WINDY CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED AS WELL OVER SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA
AND SOUTHWEST ARIZONA. HOWEVER...WIND SPEEDS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO
REACH CRITICAL THRESHOLDS. EXPECT WINDS SUNDAY TO BE LIGHTER OVER
SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA. LINGERING BREEZINESS CONTINUES MONDAY AND
EXPANDS SOMEWHAT INTO SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA. MEANWHILE...EXPECT
RIDGETOPS TO BE WINDY AND QUITE A BIT STRONGER AT NIGHT THAN THE
VALLEY FLOORS. TEMPERATURES WILL BE A BIT BELOW NORMAL OVERALL. DRY
CONDITIONS CONTINUE THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

&&

.PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

AZ...NONE.

CA...NONE.

&&

$$

VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/PHOENIX

DISCUSSION...CB
AVIATION...AJ
FIRE WEATHER...AJ















000
FXUS65 KFGZ 201054
AFDFGZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ
356 AM MST THU NOV 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A FAST MOVING HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION TODAY
BRINGING MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES...THEN A WEAK DISTURBANCE IS FORECAST TO
MOVE ACROSS NORTHERN ARIZONA ON FRIDAY...BRINGING A CHANCE OF
SHOWERS...AND COOLER CONDITIONS. SNOW LEVELS WILL BE AROUND 6500
FEET. A COUPLE OF DISTURBANCES WILL MOVE ACROSS THE INTERMOUNTAIN
WEST NORTH OF ARIZONA SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...BRINGING BREEZY
NORTHWEST TO NORTH WINDS...A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS ALONG THE
ARIZONA UTAH BORDER...AND NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES.
&&

.DISCUSSION...
A WEAK RIDGE WILL MOVE OVER ARIZONA TODAY WITH MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES
AND SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES.

A WEAK TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE ACROSS WESTERN AND THEN
SOUTHERN ARIZONA ON FRIDAY. THIS WILL BRING THE BEST CHANCE OF LIGHT
SHOWERS AND HIGHER ELEVATION SNOW SHOWERS FROM THE KAIBAB
PLATEAU...AND MOGOLLON RIM. AREAS NORTHEAST OF THE MOGOLLON RIM WILL
JUST HAVE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS. COLDER AIR WILL DROP THE SNOW
LEVEL DOWN TO AROUND 6500 FEET...WITH LIGHT SNOW ACCUMULATION ABOVE
THAT ELEVATION.

ON SATURDAY...A FAST MOVING UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE IS
FORECAST TO  MOVE ACROSS THE REGION...BRINGING DRY CONDITIONS AND
NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES. ANOTHER WEATHER SYSTEM WILL BEGIN TO
EFFECT NORTHERN ARIZONA BY LATE SATURDAY WITH INCREASING WEST TO
NORTHWEST WINDS. ON SUNDAY...THIS SYSTEM WILL MOVE ON TO THE
EAST...BUT WILL HAVE PUSHED A DRY COLD FRONT SOUTHWARD ACROSS
ARIZONA SUNDAY AND MONDAY. THIS WEATHER SYSTEM WILL BRING ONLY A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS TO MAINLY FAR NORTHERN ARIZONA ON SUNDAY.
BREEZY NORTH TO NORTHEAST WINDS AND HIGH TEMPERATURES 4-6 DEGREES
BELOW NORMAL ARE EXPECTED SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY.

TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY OF NEXT WEEK...A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BRING DRY CONDITIONS AND WARMING DAYTIME TEMPERATURES...WITH
HIGH TEMPERATURES RETURNING CLOSE TO NORMAL VALUES BY WEDNESDAY.
NORTH TO NORTHEAST BREEZES ARE FORECAST MAINLY FROM THE MOGOLLON
RIM SOUTHWARD.

FOR THURSDAY OF NEXT WEEK...SOME OF THE MODELS ARE HINTING AT A COLD
TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE MOVING THROUGH THE SOUTHWEST U.S.

&&

.AVIATION...
FOR THE 12Z PACKAGE...VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE
FORECAST PERIOD. EXPECT INCREASING THICK MID AND UPPER LEVEL CLOUD
COVER AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING WEATHER SYSTEM BEGINNING THURSDAY
EVENING. PRESCRIBED BURNING ACTIVITY IN THE FORESTS MAY LEAD TO
LOCALIZED SPOTS OF REDUCED VISIBILITY IN SETTLING SMOKE DURING THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS. AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDMENTS.

&&

.FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC.........TC
AVIATION.......RICKEY

FOR NORTHERN ARIZONA WEATHER INFORMATION VISIT
WEATHER.GOV/FLAGSTAFF











000
FXUS65 KFGZ 201054
AFDFGZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ
356 AM MST THU NOV 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A FAST MOVING HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION TODAY
BRINGING MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES...THEN A WEAK DISTURBANCE IS FORECAST TO
MOVE ACROSS NORTHERN ARIZONA ON FRIDAY...BRINGING A CHANCE OF
SHOWERS...AND COOLER CONDITIONS. SNOW LEVELS WILL BE AROUND 6500
FEET. A COUPLE OF DISTURBANCES WILL MOVE ACROSS THE INTERMOUNTAIN
WEST NORTH OF ARIZONA SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...BRINGING BREEZY
NORTHWEST TO NORTH WINDS...A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS ALONG THE
ARIZONA UTAH BORDER...AND NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES.
&&

.DISCUSSION...
A WEAK RIDGE WILL MOVE OVER ARIZONA TODAY WITH MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES
AND SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES.

A WEAK TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE ACROSS WESTERN AND THEN
SOUTHERN ARIZONA ON FRIDAY. THIS WILL BRING THE BEST CHANCE OF LIGHT
SHOWERS AND HIGHER ELEVATION SNOW SHOWERS FROM THE KAIBAB
PLATEAU...AND MOGOLLON RIM. AREAS NORTHEAST OF THE MOGOLLON RIM WILL
JUST HAVE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS. COLDER AIR WILL DROP THE SNOW
LEVEL DOWN TO AROUND 6500 FEET...WITH LIGHT SNOW ACCUMULATION ABOVE
THAT ELEVATION.

ON SATURDAY...A FAST MOVING UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE IS
FORECAST TO  MOVE ACROSS THE REGION...BRINGING DRY CONDITIONS AND
NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES. ANOTHER WEATHER SYSTEM WILL BEGIN TO
EFFECT NORTHERN ARIZONA BY LATE SATURDAY WITH INCREASING WEST TO
NORTHWEST WINDS. ON SUNDAY...THIS SYSTEM WILL MOVE ON TO THE
EAST...BUT WILL HAVE PUSHED A DRY COLD FRONT SOUTHWARD ACROSS
ARIZONA SUNDAY AND MONDAY. THIS WEATHER SYSTEM WILL BRING ONLY A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS TO MAINLY FAR NORTHERN ARIZONA ON SUNDAY.
BREEZY NORTH TO NORTHEAST WINDS AND HIGH TEMPERATURES 4-6 DEGREES
BELOW NORMAL ARE EXPECTED SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY.

TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY OF NEXT WEEK...A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BRING DRY CONDITIONS AND WARMING DAYTIME TEMPERATURES...WITH
HIGH TEMPERATURES RETURNING CLOSE TO NORMAL VALUES BY WEDNESDAY.
NORTH TO NORTHEAST BREEZES ARE FORECAST MAINLY FROM THE MOGOLLON
RIM SOUTHWARD.

FOR THURSDAY OF NEXT WEEK...SOME OF THE MODELS ARE HINTING AT A COLD
TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE MOVING THROUGH THE SOUTHWEST U.S.

&&

.AVIATION...
FOR THE 12Z PACKAGE...VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE
FORECAST PERIOD. EXPECT INCREASING THICK MID AND UPPER LEVEL CLOUD
COVER AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING WEATHER SYSTEM BEGINNING THURSDAY
EVENING. PRESCRIBED BURNING ACTIVITY IN THE FORESTS MAY LEAD TO
LOCALIZED SPOTS OF REDUCED VISIBILITY IN SETTLING SMOKE DURING THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS. AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDMENTS.

&&

.FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC.........TC
AVIATION.......RICKEY

FOR NORTHERN ARIZONA WEATHER INFORMATION VISIT
WEATHER.GOV/FLAGSTAFF











000
FXUS65 KFGZ 201054
AFDFGZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ
356 AM MST THU NOV 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A FAST MOVING HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION TODAY
BRINGING MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES...THEN A WEAK DISTURBANCE IS FORECAST TO
MOVE ACROSS NORTHERN ARIZONA ON FRIDAY...BRINGING A CHANCE OF
SHOWERS...AND COOLER CONDITIONS. SNOW LEVELS WILL BE AROUND 6500
FEET. A COUPLE OF DISTURBANCES WILL MOVE ACROSS THE INTERMOUNTAIN
WEST NORTH OF ARIZONA SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...BRINGING BREEZY
NORTHWEST TO NORTH WINDS...A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS ALONG THE
ARIZONA UTAH BORDER...AND NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES.
&&

.DISCUSSION...
A WEAK RIDGE WILL MOVE OVER ARIZONA TODAY WITH MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES
AND SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES.

A WEAK TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE ACROSS WESTERN AND THEN
SOUTHERN ARIZONA ON FRIDAY. THIS WILL BRING THE BEST CHANCE OF LIGHT
SHOWERS AND HIGHER ELEVATION SNOW SHOWERS FROM THE KAIBAB
PLATEAU...AND MOGOLLON RIM. AREAS NORTHEAST OF THE MOGOLLON RIM WILL
JUST HAVE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS. COLDER AIR WILL DROP THE SNOW
LEVEL DOWN TO AROUND 6500 FEET...WITH LIGHT SNOW ACCUMULATION ABOVE
THAT ELEVATION.

ON SATURDAY...A FAST MOVING UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE IS
FORECAST TO  MOVE ACROSS THE REGION...BRINGING DRY CONDITIONS AND
NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES. ANOTHER WEATHER SYSTEM WILL BEGIN TO
EFFECT NORTHERN ARIZONA BY LATE SATURDAY WITH INCREASING WEST TO
NORTHWEST WINDS. ON SUNDAY...THIS SYSTEM WILL MOVE ON TO THE
EAST...BUT WILL HAVE PUSHED A DRY COLD FRONT SOUTHWARD ACROSS
ARIZONA SUNDAY AND MONDAY. THIS WEATHER SYSTEM WILL BRING ONLY A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS TO MAINLY FAR NORTHERN ARIZONA ON SUNDAY.
BREEZY NORTH TO NORTHEAST WINDS AND HIGH TEMPERATURES 4-6 DEGREES
BELOW NORMAL ARE EXPECTED SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY.

TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY OF NEXT WEEK...A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BRING DRY CONDITIONS AND WARMING DAYTIME TEMPERATURES...WITH
HIGH TEMPERATURES RETURNING CLOSE TO NORMAL VALUES BY WEDNESDAY.
NORTH TO NORTHEAST BREEZES ARE FORECAST MAINLY FROM THE MOGOLLON
RIM SOUTHWARD.

FOR THURSDAY OF NEXT WEEK...SOME OF THE MODELS ARE HINTING AT A COLD
TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE MOVING THROUGH THE SOUTHWEST U.S.

&&

.AVIATION...
FOR THE 12Z PACKAGE...VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE
FORECAST PERIOD. EXPECT INCREASING THICK MID AND UPPER LEVEL CLOUD
COVER AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING WEATHER SYSTEM BEGINNING THURSDAY
EVENING. PRESCRIBED BURNING ACTIVITY IN THE FORESTS MAY LEAD TO
LOCALIZED SPOTS OF REDUCED VISIBILITY IN SETTLING SMOKE DURING THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS. AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDMENTS.

&&

.FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC.........TC
AVIATION.......RICKEY

FOR NORTHERN ARIZONA WEATHER INFORMATION VISIT
WEATHER.GOV/FLAGSTAFF











000
FXUS65 KFGZ 201054
AFDFGZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ
356 AM MST THU NOV 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A FAST MOVING HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION TODAY
BRINGING MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES...THEN A WEAK DISTURBANCE IS FORECAST TO
MOVE ACROSS NORTHERN ARIZONA ON FRIDAY...BRINGING A CHANCE OF
SHOWERS...AND COOLER CONDITIONS. SNOW LEVELS WILL BE AROUND 6500
FEET. A COUPLE OF DISTURBANCES WILL MOVE ACROSS THE INTERMOUNTAIN
WEST NORTH OF ARIZONA SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...BRINGING BREEZY
NORTHWEST TO NORTH WINDS...A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS ALONG THE
ARIZONA UTAH BORDER...AND NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES.
&&

.DISCUSSION...
A WEAK RIDGE WILL MOVE OVER ARIZONA TODAY WITH MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES
AND SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES.

A WEAK TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE ACROSS WESTERN AND THEN
SOUTHERN ARIZONA ON FRIDAY. THIS WILL BRING THE BEST CHANCE OF LIGHT
SHOWERS AND HIGHER ELEVATION SNOW SHOWERS FROM THE KAIBAB
PLATEAU...AND MOGOLLON RIM. AREAS NORTHEAST OF THE MOGOLLON RIM WILL
JUST HAVE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS. COLDER AIR WILL DROP THE SNOW
LEVEL DOWN TO AROUND 6500 FEET...WITH LIGHT SNOW ACCUMULATION ABOVE
THAT ELEVATION.

ON SATURDAY...A FAST MOVING UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE IS
FORECAST TO  MOVE ACROSS THE REGION...BRINGING DRY CONDITIONS AND
NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES. ANOTHER WEATHER SYSTEM WILL BEGIN TO
EFFECT NORTHERN ARIZONA BY LATE SATURDAY WITH INCREASING WEST TO
NORTHWEST WINDS. ON SUNDAY...THIS SYSTEM WILL MOVE ON TO THE
EAST...BUT WILL HAVE PUSHED A DRY COLD FRONT SOUTHWARD ACROSS
ARIZONA SUNDAY AND MONDAY. THIS WEATHER SYSTEM WILL BRING ONLY A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS TO MAINLY FAR NORTHERN ARIZONA ON SUNDAY.
BREEZY NORTH TO NORTHEAST WINDS AND HIGH TEMPERATURES 4-6 DEGREES
BELOW NORMAL ARE EXPECTED SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY.

TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY OF NEXT WEEK...A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BRING DRY CONDITIONS AND WARMING DAYTIME TEMPERATURES...WITH
HIGH TEMPERATURES RETURNING CLOSE TO NORMAL VALUES BY WEDNESDAY.
NORTH TO NORTHEAST BREEZES ARE FORECAST MAINLY FROM THE MOGOLLON
RIM SOUTHWARD.

FOR THURSDAY OF NEXT WEEK...SOME OF THE MODELS ARE HINTING AT A COLD
TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE MOVING THROUGH THE SOUTHWEST U.S.

&&

.AVIATION...
FOR THE 12Z PACKAGE...VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE
FORECAST PERIOD. EXPECT INCREASING THICK MID AND UPPER LEVEL CLOUD
COVER AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING WEATHER SYSTEM BEGINNING THURSDAY
EVENING. PRESCRIBED BURNING ACTIVITY IN THE FORESTS MAY LEAD TO
LOCALIZED SPOTS OF REDUCED VISIBILITY IN SETTLING SMOKE DURING THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS. AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDMENTS.

&&

.FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC.........TC
AVIATION.......RICKEY

FOR NORTHERN ARIZONA WEATHER INFORMATION VISIT
WEATHER.GOV/FLAGSTAFF











000
FXUS65 KTWC 200951
AFDTWC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ
251 AM MST THU NOV 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...DRY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TODAY. A LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM MOVING ACROSS THE AREA WILL BRING A CHANCE OF VALLEY RAIN AND
MOUNTAIN SNOW SHOWERS LATE FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND INTO THE EVENING.
ONLY LIGHT PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED. DRY CONDITIONS WITH A
SLOW WARMING TREND WILL THEN PREVAIL SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS THE WEAK SYSTEM THAT MOVED
THROUGH THE REGION TODAY CURRENTLY EXTENDS FROM NORTHEAST ARIZONA
INTO WESTERN NEW MEXICO AND CONTINUES TO MARCH EASTWARD. OUR NEXT
WEATHER MAKER IS SEEN OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC WATERS WEST OF THE
OREGON AND NORTHERN CALIFORNIA COASTS AND IS MOVING EAST SOUTHEAST.
THIS SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO MOVE ONSHORE INTO NORTHERN CALIFORNIA
THIS AFTERNOON AND THEN DIVE SOUTHEAST THROUGH CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN
CALIFORNIA LATE TONIGHT/EARLY FRIDAY BEFORE MAKING ITS WAY INTO
WESTERN ARIZONA AND NORTHWESTERN SONORA ON FRIDAY. MODELS INDICATE
THAT THIS SYSTEM WILL HAVE ENOUGH ASSOCIATED MOISTURE TO JUSTIFY
SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR DESERT/VALLEY LOCATIONS AND LOW END CHANCE
CATEGORY POPS FOR THE MOUNTAINS. THE BEST TIMING FOR PRECIP WITH
THIS SYSTEM SEEMS TO BE LATE FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND INTO THE EVENING
HOURS. THAT SAID...I MADE SOME ADJUSTMENTS TO THE POP FORECAST TO
REFLECT THIS NOTION. RAINFALL AMOUNTS WITH THIS SYSTEM ARE EXPECTED
TO BE VERY LIGHT...GENERALLY RANGING FROM JUST A TRACE ON THE LOW
END TO PERHAPS A THIRD OF AN INCH ON THE HIGH END. SNOWFALL LEVELS
EXPECTED TO FALL TO AROUND 7K FEET AS THIS SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH...SO
ANY SNOW ON MOUNTAIN TOPS WILL BE VERY LIGHT WITH LITTLE TO NO
ACCUMULATION EXPECTED.

ONCE THIS SYSTEM EXITS TO THE EAST EARLY SATURDAY...ANOTHER LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BE MOVING THROUGH THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST AND
INTERMOUNTAIN WEST WITH THE TAIL END OF THIS SYSTEM BRUSHING THROUGH
THE FOUR CORNERS REGION EARLY SUNDAY AND INTO NEW MEXICO BY LATE IN
THE DAY. SOME MOISTURE WILL ACCOMPANY THIS SYSTEM...BUT IT SHOULD
REMAIN TO THE NORTH OF MY FORECAST AREA...SO FOR NOW I HAVE NO
MENTION OF POPS IN THE TEXT PRODUCTS OF THE FORECAST...BUT DO SHOW
THE `SILENT` SINGLE DIGIT POPS IN THE GRIDS.

ONCE THIS SYSTEM EXITS QUICKLY TO THE EAST...RIDGING WILL BUILD IN
FROM THE WEST FOR A WARMUP IN TEMPERATURES FOR EARLY TO MIDDLE OF
NEXT WEEK. ECWMF SHOWS A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE MOVING ACROSS
ARIZONA ON THANKSGIVING DAY...WHILE THE GFS SHOW A HIGHLY AMPLIFIED
RIDGE EXTENDING FROM ARIZONA INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. GFS
ENSEMBLE MEMBERS ALL SHOWED RIDGING DURING THIS TIME WITH JUST ONE
MEMBER SHOWING A TROUGH. HOWEVER...THIS IS ONE DAY BEYOND MY
OFFICIAL FORECAST PERIOD...SO STAY TUNED TO SUBSEQUENT FORECASTS TO
SEE WHAT THE MODELS WANT TO DO LATE NEXT WEEK.

FOR TUCSON...HIGH TEMPERATURES GENERALLY NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE
NORMAL TODAY...THEN 2 TO 3 DEGS BELOW NORMAL FRIDAY THROUGH
MONDAY...WITH THE COOLEST DAY OCCURRING ON FRIDAY. ABOVE NORMAL
HIGHS FOR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY OF NEXT WEEK. LOW TEMPERATURES WILL
HOVER WITHIN A DEGREE OR TWO EITHER SIDE OF NORMAL THROUGH NEXT
WEDNESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...VALID THRU 21/12Z.
CLEAR SKIES EARLY THIS MORNING WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE DAY WITH
PERHAPS A FEW HIGH CIRRUS CLOUDS FROM TIME TO TIME. SURFACE WIND
GENERALLY LESS THAN 10 KTS WITH NORMAL DIURNAL PATTERNS CONTINUING
THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON AND INTO EARLY FRIDAY. AVIATION DISCUSSION
NOT UPDATED FOR TAF AMENDMENTS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...DRY CONDITIONS WITH LIGHT TERRAIN DRIVEN WINDS WILL
PREVAIL TODAY. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BRING ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS WITH PERHAPS A FEW MOUNTAIN SNOW SHOWERS LATE
FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND FRIDAY EVENING. DRY CONDITIONS WILL THEN
CONTINUE THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM PASSING TO THE NORTH OF THE REGION SUNDAY WILL BRING GUSTY
WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS TO THE AREA. THE UPPER GILA VALLEY MAY SEE
WINDS OF 10-15 MPH WITH GUSTS OF 25-30 MPH. SLIGHTLY ELEVATED
EASTERLY WINDS ARE EXPECTED OVERNIGHT MONDAY AND INTO TUESDAY
MORNING.

&&

.TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...YOUTUBE...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/TUCSON

MOLLERE






000
FXUS65 KTWC 200951
AFDTWC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ
251 AM MST THU NOV 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...DRY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TODAY. A LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM MOVING ACROSS THE AREA WILL BRING A CHANCE OF VALLEY RAIN AND
MOUNTAIN SNOW SHOWERS LATE FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND INTO THE EVENING.
ONLY LIGHT PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED. DRY CONDITIONS WITH A
SLOW WARMING TREND WILL THEN PREVAIL SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS THE WEAK SYSTEM THAT MOVED
THROUGH THE REGION TODAY CURRENTLY EXTENDS FROM NORTHEAST ARIZONA
INTO WESTERN NEW MEXICO AND CONTINUES TO MARCH EASTWARD. OUR NEXT
WEATHER MAKER IS SEEN OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC WATERS WEST OF THE
OREGON AND NORTHERN CALIFORNIA COASTS AND IS MOVING EAST SOUTHEAST.
THIS SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO MOVE ONSHORE INTO NORTHERN CALIFORNIA
THIS AFTERNOON AND THEN DIVE SOUTHEAST THROUGH CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN
CALIFORNIA LATE TONIGHT/EARLY FRIDAY BEFORE MAKING ITS WAY INTO
WESTERN ARIZONA AND NORTHWESTERN SONORA ON FRIDAY. MODELS INDICATE
THAT THIS SYSTEM WILL HAVE ENOUGH ASSOCIATED MOISTURE TO JUSTIFY
SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR DESERT/VALLEY LOCATIONS AND LOW END CHANCE
CATEGORY POPS FOR THE MOUNTAINS. THE BEST TIMING FOR PRECIP WITH
THIS SYSTEM SEEMS TO BE LATE FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND INTO THE EVENING
HOURS. THAT SAID...I MADE SOME ADJUSTMENTS TO THE POP FORECAST TO
REFLECT THIS NOTION. RAINFALL AMOUNTS WITH THIS SYSTEM ARE EXPECTED
TO BE VERY LIGHT...GENERALLY RANGING FROM JUST A TRACE ON THE LOW
END TO PERHAPS A THIRD OF AN INCH ON THE HIGH END. SNOWFALL LEVELS
EXPECTED TO FALL TO AROUND 7K FEET AS THIS SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH...SO
ANY SNOW ON MOUNTAIN TOPS WILL BE VERY LIGHT WITH LITTLE TO NO
ACCUMULATION EXPECTED.

ONCE THIS SYSTEM EXITS TO THE EAST EARLY SATURDAY...ANOTHER LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BE MOVING THROUGH THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST AND
INTERMOUNTAIN WEST WITH THE TAIL END OF THIS SYSTEM BRUSHING THROUGH
THE FOUR CORNERS REGION EARLY SUNDAY AND INTO NEW MEXICO BY LATE IN
THE DAY. SOME MOISTURE WILL ACCOMPANY THIS SYSTEM...BUT IT SHOULD
REMAIN TO THE NORTH OF MY FORECAST AREA...SO FOR NOW I HAVE NO
MENTION OF POPS IN THE TEXT PRODUCTS OF THE FORECAST...BUT DO SHOW
THE `SILENT` SINGLE DIGIT POPS IN THE GRIDS.

ONCE THIS SYSTEM EXITS QUICKLY TO THE EAST...RIDGING WILL BUILD IN
FROM THE WEST FOR A WARMUP IN TEMPERATURES FOR EARLY TO MIDDLE OF
NEXT WEEK. ECWMF SHOWS A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE MOVING ACROSS
ARIZONA ON THANKSGIVING DAY...WHILE THE GFS SHOW A HIGHLY AMPLIFIED
RIDGE EXTENDING FROM ARIZONA INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. GFS
ENSEMBLE MEMBERS ALL SHOWED RIDGING DURING THIS TIME WITH JUST ONE
MEMBER SHOWING A TROUGH. HOWEVER...THIS IS ONE DAY BEYOND MY
OFFICIAL FORECAST PERIOD...SO STAY TUNED TO SUBSEQUENT FORECASTS TO
SEE WHAT THE MODELS WANT TO DO LATE NEXT WEEK.

FOR TUCSON...HIGH TEMPERATURES GENERALLY NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE
NORMAL TODAY...THEN 2 TO 3 DEGS BELOW NORMAL FRIDAY THROUGH
MONDAY...WITH THE COOLEST DAY OCCURRING ON FRIDAY. ABOVE NORMAL
HIGHS FOR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY OF NEXT WEEK. LOW TEMPERATURES WILL
HOVER WITHIN A DEGREE OR TWO EITHER SIDE OF NORMAL THROUGH NEXT
WEDNESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...VALID THRU 21/12Z.
CLEAR SKIES EARLY THIS MORNING WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE DAY WITH
PERHAPS A FEW HIGH CIRRUS CLOUDS FROM TIME TO TIME. SURFACE WIND
GENERALLY LESS THAN 10 KTS WITH NORMAL DIURNAL PATTERNS CONTINUING
THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON AND INTO EARLY FRIDAY. AVIATION DISCUSSION
NOT UPDATED FOR TAF AMENDMENTS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...DRY CONDITIONS WITH LIGHT TERRAIN DRIVEN WINDS WILL
PREVAIL TODAY. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BRING ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS WITH PERHAPS A FEW MOUNTAIN SNOW SHOWERS LATE
FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND FRIDAY EVENING. DRY CONDITIONS WILL THEN
CONTINUE THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM PASSING TO THE NORTH OF THE REGION SUNDAY WILL BRING GUSTY
WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS TO THE AREA. THE UPPER GILA VALLEY MAY SEE
WINDS OF 10-15 MPH WITH GUSTS OF 25-30 MPH. SLIGHTLY ELEVATED
EASTERLY WINDS ARE EXPECTED OVERNIGHT MONDAY AND INTO TUESDAY
MORNING.

&&

.TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...YOUTUBE...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/TUCSON

MOLLERE







000
FXUS65 KTWC 200951
AFDTWC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ
251 AM MST THU NOV 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...DRY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TODAY. A LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM MOVING ACROSS THE AREA WILL BRING A CHANCE OF VALLEY RAIN AND
MOUNTAIN SNOW SHOWERS LATE FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND INTO THE EVENING.
ONLY LIGHT PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED. DRY CONDITIONS WITH A
SLOW WARMING TREND WILL THEN PREVAIL SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS THE WEAK SYSTEM THAT MOVED
THROUGH THE REGION TODAY CURRENTLY EXTENDS FROM NORTHEAST ARIZONA
INTO WESTERN NEW MEXICO AND CONTINUES TO MARCH EASTWARD. OUR NEXT
WEATHER MAKER IS SEEN OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC WATERS WEST OF THE
OREGON AND NORTHERN CALIFORNIA COASTS AND IS MOVING EAST SOUTHEAST.
THIS SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO MOVE ONSHORE INTO NORTHERN CALIFORNIA
THIS AFTERNOON AND THEN DIVE SOUTHEAST THROUGH CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN
CALIFORNIA LATE TONIGHT/EARLY FRIDAY BEFORE MAKING ITS WAY INTO
WESTERN ARIZONA AND NORTHWESTERN SONORA ON FRIDAY. MODELS INDICATE
THAT THIS SYSTEM WILL HAVE ENOUGH ASSOCIATED MOISTURE TO JUSTIFY
SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR DESERT/VALLEY LOCATIONS AND LOW END CHANCE
CATEGORY POPS FOR THE MOUNTAINS. THE BEST TIMING FOR PRECIP WITH
THIS SYSTEM SEEMS TO BE LATE FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND INTO THE EVENING
HOURS. THAT SAID...I MADE SOME ADJUSTMENTS TO THE POP FORECAST TO
REFLECT THIS NOTION. RAINFALL AMOUNTS WITH THIS SYSTEM ARE EXPECTED
TO BE VERY LIGHT...GENERALLY RANGING FROM JUST A TRACE ON THE LOW
END TO PERHAPS A THIRD OF AN INCH ON THE HIGH END. SNOWFALL LEVELS
EXPECTED TO FALL TO AROUND 7K FEET AS THIS SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH...SO
ANY SNOW ON MOUNTAIN TOPS WILL BE VERY LIGHT WITH LITTLE TO NO
ACCUMULATION EXPECTED.

ONCE THIS SYSTEM EXITS TO THE EAST EARLY SATURDAY...ANOTHER LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BE MOVING THROUGH THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST AND
INTERMOUNTAIN WEST WITH THE TAIL END OF THIS SYSTEM BRUSHING THROUGH
THE FOUR CORNERS REGION EARLY SUNDAY AND INTO NEW MEXICO BY LATE IN
THE DAY. SOME MOISTURE WILL ACCOMPANY THIS SYSTEM...BUT IT SHOULD
REMAIN TO THE NORTH OF MY FORECAST AREA...SO FOR NOW I HAVE NO
MENTION OF POPS IN THE TEXT PRODUCTS OF THE FORECAST...BUT DO SHOW
THE `SILENT` SINGLE DIGIT POPS IN THE GRIDS.

ONCE THIS SYSTEM EXITS QUICKLY TO THE EAST...RIDGING WILL BUILD IN
FROM THE WEST FOR A WARMUP IN TEMPERATURES FOR EARLY TO MIDDLE OF
NEXT WEEK. ECWMF SHOWS A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE MOVING ACROSS
ARIZONA ON THANKSGIVING DAY...WHILE THE GFS SHOW A HIGHLY AMPLIFIED
RIDGE EXTENDING FROM ARIZONA INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. GFS
ENSEMBLE MEMBERS ALL SHOWED RIDGING DURING THIS TIME WITH JUST ONE
MEMBER SHOWING A TROUGH. HOWEVER...THIS IS ONE DAY BEYOND MY
OFFICIAL FORECAST PERIOD...SO STAY TUNED TO SUBSEQUENT FORECASTS TO
SEE WHAT THE MODELS WANT TO DO LATE NEXT WEEK.

FOR TUCSON...HIGH TEMPERATURES GENERALLY NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE
NORMAL TODAY...THEN 2 TO 3 DEGS BELOW NORMAL FRIDAY THROUGH
MONDAY...WITH THE COOLEST DAY OCCURRING ON FRIDAY. ABOVE NORMAL
HIGHS FOR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY OF NEXT WEEK. LOW TEMPERATURES WILL
HOVER WITHIN A DEGREE OR TWO EITHER SIDE OF NORMAL THROUGH NEXT
WEDNESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...VALID THRU 21/12Z.
CLEAR SKIES EARLY THIS MORNING WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE DAY WITH
PERHAPS A FEW HIGH CIRRUS CLOUDS FROM TIME TO TIME. SURFACE WIND
GENERALLY LESS THAN 10 KTS WITH NORMAL DIURNAL PATTERNS CONTINUING
THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON AND INTO EARLY FRIDAY. AVIATION DISCUSSION
NOT UPDATED FOR TAF AMENDMENTS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...DRY CONDITIONS WITH LIGHT TERRAIN DRIVEN WINDS WILL
PREVAIL TODAY. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BRING ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS WITH PERHAPS A FEW MOUNTAIN SNOW SHOWERS LATE
FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND FRIDAY EVENING. DRY CONDITIONS WILL THEN
CONTINUE THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM PASSING TO THE NORTH OF THE REGION SUNDAY WILL BRING GUSTY
WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS TO THE AREA. THE UPPER GILA VALLEY MAY SEE
WINDS OF 10-15 MPH WITH GUSTS OF 25-30 MPH. SLIGHTLY ELEVATED
EASTERLY WINDS ARE EXPECTED OVERNIGHT MONDAY AND INTO TUESDAY
MORNING.

&&

.TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...YOUTUBE...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/TUCSON

MOLLERE







000
FXUS65 KTWC 200951
AFDTWC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ
251 AM MST THU NOV 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...DRY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TODAY. A LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM MOVING ACROSS THE AREA WILL BRING A CHANCE OF VALLEY RAIN AND
MOUNTAIN SNOW SHOWERS LATE FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND INTO THE EVENING.
ONLY LIGHT PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED. DRY CONDITIONS WITH A
SLOW WARMING TREND WILL THEN PREVAIL SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS THE WEAK SYSTEM THAT MOVED
THROUGH THE REGION TODAY CURRENTLY EXTENDS FROM NORTHEAST ARIZONA
INTO WESTERN NEW MEXICO AND CONTINUES TO MARCH EASTWARD. OUR NEXT
WEATHER MAKER IS SEEN OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC WATERS WEST OF THE
OREGON AND NORTHERN CALIFORNIA COASTS AND IS MOVING EAST SOUTHEAST.
THIS SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO MOVE ONSHORE INTO NORTHERN CALIFORNIA
THIS AFTERNOON AND THEN DIVE SOUTHEAST THROUGH CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN
CALIFORNIA LATE TONIGHT/EARLY FRIDAY BEFORE MAKING ITS WAY INTO
WESTERN ARIZONA AND NORTHWESTERN SONORA ON FRIDAY. MODELS INDICATE
THAT THIS SYSTEM WILL HAVE ENOUGH ASSOCIATED MOISTURE TO JUSTIFY
SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR DESERT/VALLEY LOCATIONS AND LOW END CHANCE
CATEGORY POPS FOR THE MOUNTAINS. THE BEST TIMING FOR PRECIP WITH
THIS SYSTEM SEEMS TO BE LATE FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND INTO THE EVENING
HOURS. THAT SAID...I MADE SOME ADJUSTMENTS TO THE POP FORECAST TO
REFLECT THIS NOTION. RAINFALL AMOUNTS WITH THIS SYSTEM ARE EXPECTED
TO BE VERY LIGHT...GENERALLY RANGING FROM JUST A TRACE ON THE LOW
END TO PERHAPS A THIRD OF AN INCH ON THE HIGH END. SNOWFALL LEVELS
EXPECTED TO FALL TO AROUND 7K FEET AS THIS SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH...SO
ANY SNOW ON MOUNTAIN TOPS WILL BE VERY LIGHT WITH LITTLE TO NO
ACCUMULATION EXPECTED.

ONCE THIS SYSTEM EXITS TO THE EAST EARLY SATURDAY...ANOTHER LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BE MOVING THROUGH THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST AND
INTERMOUNTAIN WEST WITH THE TAIL END OF THIS SYSTEM BRUSHING THROUGH
THE FOUR CORNERS REGION EARLY SUNDAY AND INTO NEW MEXICO BY LATE IN
THE DAY. SOME MOISTURE WILL ACCOMPANY THIS SYSTEM...BUT IT SHOULD
REMAIN TO THE NORTH OF MY FORECAST AREA...SO FOR NOW I HAVE NO
MENTION OF POPS IN THE TEXT PRODUCTS OF THE FORECAST...BUT DO SHOW
THE `SILENT` SINGLE DIGIT POPS IN THE GRIDS.

ONCE THIS SYSTEM EXITS QUICKLY TO THE EAST...RIDGING WILL BUILD IN
FROM THE WEST FOR A WARMUP IN TEMPERATURES FOR EARLY TO MIDDLE OF
NEXT WEEK. ECWMF SHOWS A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE MOVING ACROSS
ARIZONA ON THANKSGIVING DAY...WHILE THE GFS SHOW A HIGHLY AMPLIFIED
RIDGE EXTENDING FROM ARIZONA INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. GFS
ENSEMBLE MEMBERS ALL SHOWED RIDGING DURING THIS TIME WITH JUST ONE
MEMBER SHOWING A TROUGH. HOWEVER...THIS IS ONE DAY BEYOND MY
OFFICIAL FORECAST PERIOD...SO STAY TUNED TO SUBSEQUENT FORECASTS TO
SEE WHAT THE MODELS WANT TO DO LATE NEXT WEEK.

FOR TUCSON...HIGH TEMPERATURES GENERALLY NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE
NORMAL TODAY...THEN 2 TO 3 DEGS BELOW NORMAL FRIDAY THROUGH
MONDAY...WITH THE COOLEST DAY OCCURRING ON FRIDAY. ABOVE NORMAL
HIGHS FOR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY OF NEXT WEEK. LOW TEMPERATURES WILL
HOVER WITHIN A DEGREE OR TWO EITHER SIDE OF NORMAL THROUGH NEXT
WEDNESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...VALID THRU 21/12Z.
CLEAR SKIES EARLY THIS MORNING WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE DAY WITH
PERHAPS A FEW HIGH CIRRUS CLOUDS FROM TIME TO TIME. SURFACE WIND
GENERALLY LESS THAN 10 KTS WITH NORMAL DIURNAL PATTERNS CONTINUING
THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON AND INTO EARLY FRIDAY. AVIATION DISCUSSION
NOT UPDATED FOR TAF AMENDMENTS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...DRY CONDITIONS WITH LIGHT TERRAIN DRIVEN WINDS WILL
PREVAIL TODAY. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BRING ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS WITH PERHAPS A FEW MOUNTAIN SNOW SHOWERS LATE
FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND FRIDAY EVENING. DRY CONDITIONS WILL THEN
CONTINUE THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM PASSING TO THE NORTH OF THE REGION SUNDAY WILL BRING GUSTY
WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS TO THE AREA. THE UPPER GILA VALLEY MAY SEE
WINDS OF 10-15 MPH WITH GUSTS OF 25-30 MPH. SLIGHTLY ELEVATED
EASTERLY WINDS ARE EXPECTED OVERNIGHT MONDAY AND INTO TUESDAY
MORNING.

&&

.TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...YOUTUBE...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/TUCSON

MOLLERE







000
FXUS65 KTWC 200951
AFDTWC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ
251 AM MST THU NOV 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...DRY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TODAY. A LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM MOVING ACROSS THE AREA WILL BRING A CHANCE OF VALLEY RAIN AND
MOUNTAIN SNOW SHOWERS LATE FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND INTO THE EVENING.
ONLY LIGHT PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED. DRY CONDITIONS WITH A
SLOW WARMING TREND WILL THEN PREVAIL SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS THE WEAK SYSTEM THAT MOVED
THROUGH THE REGION TODAY CURRENTLY EXTENDS FROM NORTHEAST ARIZONA
INTO WESTERN NEW MEXICO AND CONTINUES TO MARCH EASTWARD. OUR NEXT
WEATHER MAKER IS SEEN OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC WATERS WEST OF THE
OREGON AND NORTHERN CALIFORNIA COASTS AND IS MOVING EAST SOUTHEAST.
THIS SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO MOVE ONSHORE INTO NORTHERN CALIFORNIA
THIS AFTERNOON AND THEN DIVE SOUTHEAST THROUGH CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN
CALIFORNIA LATE TONIGHT/EARLY FRIDAY BEFORE MAKING ITS WAY INTO
WESTERN ARIZONA AND NORTHWESTERN SONORA ON FRIDAY. MODELS INDICATE
THAT THIS SYSTEM WILL HAVE ENOUGH ASSOCIATED MOISTURE TO JUSTIFY
SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR DESERT/VALLEY LOCATIONS AND LOW END CHANCE
CATEGORY POPS FOR THE MOUNTAINS. THE BEST TIMING FOR PRECIP WITH
THIS SYSTEM SEEMS TO BE LATE FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND INTO THE EVENING
HOURS. THAT SAID...I MADE SOME ADJUSTMENTS TO THE POP FORECAST TO
REFLECT THIS NOTION. RAINFALL AMOUNTS WITH THIS SYSTEM ARE EXPECTED
TO BE VERY LIGHT...GENERALLY RANGING FROM JUST A TRACE ON THE LOW
END TO PERHAPS A THIRD OF AN INCH ON THE HIGH END. SNOWFALL LEVELS
EXPECTED TO FALL TO AROUND 7K FEET AS THIS SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH...SO
ANY SNOW ON MOUNTAIN TOPS WILL BE VERY LIGHT WITH LITTLE TO NO
ACCUMULATION EXPECTED.

ONCE THIS SYSTEM EXITS TO THE EAST EARLY SATURDAY...ANOTHER LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BE MOVING THROUGH THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST AND
INTERMOUNTAIN WEST WITH THE TAIL END OF THIS SYSTEM BRUSHING THROUGH
THE FOUR CORNERS REGION EARLY SUNDAY AND INTO NEW MEXICO BY LATE IN
THE DAY. SOME MOISTURE WILL ACCOMPANY THIS SYSTEM...BUT IT SHOULD
REMAIN TO THE NORTH OF MY FORECAST AREA...SO FOR NOW I HAVE NO
MENTION OF POPS IN THE TEXT PRODUCTS OF THE FORECAST...BUT DO SHOW
THE `SILENT` SINGLE DIGIT POPS IN THE GRIDS.

ONCE THIS SYSTEM EXITS QUICKLY TO THE EAST...RIDGING WILL BUILD IN
FROM THE WEST FOR A WARMUP IN TEMPERATURES FOR EARLY TO MIDDLE OF
NEXT WEEK. ECWMF SHOWS A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE MOVING ACROSS
ARIZONA ON THANKSGIVING DAY...WHILE THE GFS SHOW A HIGHLY AMPLIFIED
RIDGE EXTENDING FROM ARIZONA INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. GFS
ENSEMBLE MEMBERS ALL SHOWED RIDGING DURING THIS TIME WITH JUST ONE
MEMBER SHOWING A TROUGH. HOWEVER...THIS IS ONE DAY BEYOND MY
OFFICIAL FORECAST PERIOD...SO STAY TUNED TO SUBSEQUENT FORECASTS TO
SEE WHAT THE MODELS WANT TO DO LATE NEXT WEEK.

FOR TUCSON...HIGH TEMPERATURES GENERALLY NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE
NORMAL TODAY...THEN 2 TO 3 DEGS BELOW NORMAL FRIDAY THROUGH
MONDAY...WITH THE COOLEST DAY OCCURRING ON FRIDAY. ABOVE NORMAL
HIGHS FOR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY OF NEXT WEEK. LOW TEMPERATURES WILL
HOVER WITHIN A DEGREE OR TWO EITHER SIDE OF NORMAL THROUGH NEXT
WEDNESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...VALID THRU 21/12Z.
CLEAR SKIES EARLY THIS MORNING WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE DAY WITH
PERHAPS A FEW HIGH CIRRUS CLOUDS FROM TIME TO TIME. SURFACE WIND
GENERALLY LESS THAN 10 KTS WITH NORMAL DIURNAL PATTERNS CONTINUING
THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON AND INTO EARLY FRIDAY. AVIATION DISCUSSION
NOT UPDATED FOR TAF AMENDMENTS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...DRY CONDITIONS WITH LIGHT TERRAIN DRIVEN WINDS WILL
PREVAIL TODAY. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BRING ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS WITH PERHAPS A FEW MOUNTAIN SNOW SHOWERS LATE
FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND FRIDAY EVENING. DRY CONDITIONS WILL THEN
CONTINUE THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM PASSING TO THE NORTH OF THE REGION SUNDAY WILL BRING GUSTY
WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS TO THE AREA. THE UPPER GILA VALLEY MAY SEE
WINDS OF 10-15 MPH WITH GUSTS OF 25-30 MPH. SLIGHTLY ELEVATED
EASTERLY WINDS ARE EXPECTED OVERNIGHT MONDAY AND INTO TUESDAY
MORNING.

&&

.TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...YOUTUBE...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/TUCSON

MOLLERE







000
FXUS65 KTWC 200951
AFDTWC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ
251 AM MST THU NOV 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...DRY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TODAY. A LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM MOVING ACROSS THE AREA WILL BRING A CHANCE OF VALLEY RAIN AND
MOUNTAIN SNOW SHOWERS LATE FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND INTO THE EVENING.
ONLY LIGHT PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED. DRY CONDITIONS WITH A
SLOW WARMING TREND WILL THEN PREVAIL SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS THE WEAK SYSTEM THAT MOVED
THROUGH THE REGION TODAY CURRENTLY EXTENDS FROM NORTHEAST ARIZONA
INTO WESTERN NEW MEXICO AND CONTINUES TO MARCH EASTWARD. OUR NEXT
WEATHER MAKER IS SEEN OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC WATERS WEST OF THE
OREGON AND NORTHERN CALIFORNIA COASTS AND IS MOVING EAST SOUTHEAST.
THIS SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO MOVE ONSHORE INTO NORTHERN CALIFORNIA
THIS AFTERNOON AND THEN DIVE SOUTHEAST THROUGH CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN
CALIFORNIA LATE TONIGHT/EARLY FRIDAY BEFORE MAKING ITS WAY INTO
WESTERN ARIZONA AND NORTHWESTERN SONORA ON FRIDAY. MODELS INDICATE
THAT THIS SYSTEM WILL HAVE ENOUGH ASSOCIATED MOISTURE TO JUSTIFY
SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR DESERT/VALLEY LOCATIONS AND LOW END CHANCE
CATEGORY POPS FOR THE MOUNTAINS. THE BEST TIMING FOR PRECIP WITH
THIS SYSTEM SEEMS TO BE LATE FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND INTO THE EVENING
HOURS. THAT SAID...I MADE SOME ADJUSTMENTS TO THE POP FORECAST TO
REFLECT THIS NOTION. RAINFALL AMOUNTS WITH THIS SYSTEM ARE EXPECTED
TO BE VERY LIGHT...GENERALLY RANGING FROM JUST A TRACE ON THE LOW
END TO PERHAPS A THIRD OF AN INCH ON THE HIGH END. SNOWFALL LEVELS
EXPECTED TO FALL TO AROUND 7K FEET AS THIS SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH...SO
ANY SNOW ON MOUNTAIN TOPS WILL BE VERY LIGHT WITH LITTLE TO NO
ACCUMULATION EXPECTED.

ONCE THIS SYSTEM EXITS TO THE EAST EARLY SATURDAY...ANOTHER LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BE MOVING THROUGH THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST AND
INTERMOUNTAIN WEST WITH THE TAIL END OF THIS SYSTEM BRUSHING THROUGH
THE FOUR CORNERS REGION EARLY SUNDAY AND INTO NEW MEXICO BY LATE IN
THE DAY. SOME MOISTURE WILL ACCOMPANY THIS SYSTEM...BUT IT SHOULD
REMAIN TO THE NORTH OF MY FORECAST AREA...SO FOR NOW I HAVE NO
MENTION OF POPS IN THE TEXT PRODUCTS OF THE FORECAST...BUT DO SHOW
THE `SILENT` SINGLE DIGIT POPS IN THE GRIDS.

ONCE THIS SYSTEM EXITS QUICKLY TO THE EAST...RIDGING WILL BUILD IN
FROM THE WEST FOR A WARMUP IN TEMPERATURES FOR EARLY TO MIDDLE OF
NEXT WEEK. ECWMF SHOWS A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE MOVING ACROSS
ARIZONA ON THANKSGIVING DAY...WHILE THE GFS SHOW A HIGHLY AMPLIFIED
RIDGE EXTENDING FROM ARIZONA INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. GFS
ENSEMBLE MEMBERS ALL SHOWED RIDGING DURING THIS TIME WITH JUST ONE
MEMBER SHOWING A TROUGH. HOWEVER...THIS IS ONE DAY BEYOND MY
OFFICIAL FORECAST PERIOD...SO STAY TUNED TO SUBSEQUENT FORECASTS TO
SEE WHAT THE MODELS WANT TO DO LATE NEXT WEEK.

FOR TUCSON...HIGH TEMPERATURES GENERALLY NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE
NORMAL TODAY...THEN 2 TO 3 DEGS BELOW NORMAL FRIDAY THROUGH
MONDAY...WITH THE COOLEST DAY OCCURRING ON FRIDAY. ABOVE NORMAL
HIGHS FOR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY OF NEXT WEEK. LOW TEMPERATURES WILL
HOVER WITHIN A DEGREE OR TWO EITHER SIDE OF NORMAL THROUGH NEXT
WEDNESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...VALID THRU 21/12Z.
CLEAR SKIES EARLY THIS MORNING WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE DAY WITH
PERHAPS A FEW HIGH CIRRUS CLOUDS FROM TIME TO TIME. SURFACE WIND
GENERALLY LESS THAN 10 KTS WITH NORMAL DIURNAL PATTERNS CONTINUING
THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON AND INTO EARLY FRIDAY. AVIATION DISCUSSION
NOT UPDATED FOR TAF AMENDMENTS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...DRY CONDITIONS WITH LIGHT TERRAIN DRIVEN WINDS WILL
PREVAIL TODAY. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BRING ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS WITH PERHAPS A FEW MOUNTAIN SNOW SHOWERS LATE
FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND FRIDAY EVENING. DRY CONDITIONS WILL THEN
CONTINUE THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM PASSING TO THE NORTH OF THE REGION SUNDAY WILL BRING GUSTY
WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS TO THE AREA. THE UPPER GILA VALLEY MAY SEE
WINDS OF 10-15 MPH WITH GUSTS OF 25-30 MPH. SLIGHTLY ELEVATED
EASTERLY WINDS ARE EXPECTED OVERNIGHT MONDAY AND INTO TUESDAY
MORNING.

&&

.TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...YOUTUBE...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/TUCSON

MOLLERE







000
FXUS65 KPSR 200935
AFDPSR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PHOENIX AZ
235 AM MST THU NOV 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A BRIEF PERIOD OF SUNNY SKIES IS EXPECTED TODAY BEFORE CONDITIONS
QUICKLY CHANGE AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH THE DESERT
SOUTHWEST TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. THE SYSTEM WILL BRING
CLOUDY SKIES AND COOLER TEMPERATURES ALONG WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
SHOWERS. DRY CONDITIONS WITH BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN
PLACE OVER THE WEEKEND AND LINGER INTO NEXT WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
DRY WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT IS NOW IN PLACE ACROSS AZ AND FAR SERN CA IN
THE WAKE OF A WEAK DISTURBANCE THAT PASSED THRU THE STATE YESTERDAY.
IR IMAGERY AT 2 AM SHOWED GENLY CLEAR SKIES ACROSS THE AREA. SURFACE
DEWPOINTS AT 1 AM WERE VERY LOW AND MOSTLY RANGED FROM THE TEENS TO
THE 20S OVER THE LOWER DESERTS. DRY WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL PERSIST
TODAY FOR MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES...WITH LITTLE CHANGE IN HIGH TEMPS
EXPECTED AS BOUNDARY LAYER TEMPS WILL REMAIN SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY.

MODEL GUIDANCE REMAINS VERY CONSISTENT IN CALLING FOR A MODEST
CHANGE IN THE WEATHER STARTING LATER TONIGHT...AS A PROGRESSIVE
UPPER LOW JUST OFF THE NRN CA/PAC NW COAST DIVES SOUTHEASTWARD AND
INLAND...AND INTO FAR SERN CA LEADING TO INCREASING CLOUDS AND A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS MAINLY ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN AREAS OF SERN
CA SUCH AS JOSHUA TREE NP. LATEST NAM/GFS/ECMWF ALL TRACK THE UPPER
LOW CENTER EASTWARD ALONG THE SRN AZ BORDER ON FRIDAY...AND AS SUCH
THE BEST DYNAMICS/PVA/UVV TRACKS THRU FAR SOUTHERN AZ AND ACROSS THE
SRN PORTION OF OUR CWA. H5 HEIGHT FALLS ARE MODEST...WITH MAX VALUES
RUNNING AROUND 80-100M...AND UPPER SUPPORT IS NOT OVERLY IMPRESSIVE.
ALSO...GIVEN THE OVERLAND TRAJECTORY OF THE PASSING SYSTEM...
MOISTURE IS NOT EXPECTED TO BE VERY SIGNIFICANT WITH MOST OF THE RH
CONFINED TO THE MID LEVELS...ABOVE 850 MB. FINALLY...FORECAST PWAT
VALUES ONLY RISE TO AROUND ONE HALF INCH ACROSS SRN AZ AS THE SYSTEM
PASSES THROUGH. AS SUCH...CHANCES FOR DECENT RAINFALL ARE NOT VERY
HIGH. QPF WILL BE LOW...MOSTLY LESS THAN ONE TENTH OF AN INCH...
WHERE IT DOES RAIN. WE WILL KEEP POP TRENDS MORE OR LESS AS IS AND
CALL FOR SLIGHT CHANCES FOR RAIN SHOWERS ON FRIDAY ACROSS SOUTH
CENTRAL AZ...WITH POPS IN THE GREATER PHOENIX AREA BETWEEN 10 AND 15
PERCENT. SLIGHTLY HIGHER POPS ARE EXPECTED IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN
AREAS TO THE EAST OF PHOENIX...EVEN THOUGH THE BEST DYNAMICS WILL
TRACK TO THE SOUTH OF GILA COUNTY. GIVEN THE HIGH AMOUNTS OF
MID/HIGH CLOUDS MOVING THRU ON FRIDAY...HIGH TEMPS WILL FALL OFF
SEVERAL DEGREES WITH THE COOLER CENTRAL DESERTS LOWERING INTO THE
UPPER 60S.

THE LOW IS FORECAST TO DIVE QUICKLY TO THE SOUTHEAST AND EXIT THE
STATE OVERNIGHT FRIDAY NIGHT LEAVING BEHIND COOL...DRY SUBSIDENT
NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT...FOR MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES ON SATURDAY. WE EXPECT
LITTLE CHANGE IN HIGH TEMPS SATURDAY ESPECIALLY ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL
AZ WHERE READINGS WILL STAY SLIGHTLY BELOW SEASONAL NORMALS...AND
AROUND 70 DEGREES.

AS THE UPPER RIDGE JUST OFF THE WEST COAST STARTS TO AMPLIFY
SUNDAY...ANOTHER SHORT WAVE WILL RIDE DOWN THE FRONT SIDE AND BRUSH
BY TO OUR NORTHEAST...MAINLY MOVING THROUGH THE CORNERS AREA. THIS
WILL BRING NO PRECIP TO OUR AREA...AND LITTLE IN TERMS OF CLOUD
COVER. IT WILL HOWEVER BRING ANOTHER SHOT OF COOLER AIR...WHICH WILL
LEAD TO HIGH TEMPS ON MONDAY DROPPING A FEW DEGREES. THE CENTRAL
DESERTS WILL LIKELY FALL OFF A FEW DEGREES AND INTO THE MID TO UPPER
60S FOR THE MOST PART UNDER MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES.

DRY NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL BUILD INTO THE AREA FROM THE WEST
TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY FOR A SLOW WARMING TREND. HIGH TEMPS WILL
CLIMB TO NEAR OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL BY WEDNESDAY AS SKIES REMAIN
MOSTLY SUNNY OR SUNNY.

&&

.AVIATION...
SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA INCLUDING KPHX...KIWA...AND KSDL...SOUTHEAST
CALIFORNIA AND SOUTHWEST ARIZONA...INCLUDING KIPL AND KBLH...

LITTLE CHANGE IS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS WITH CONTINUED
LIGHT WINDS AND CLEAR TO MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES THROUGH THURSDAY
MORNING. WILL SEE AN INCREASE IN MID AND HIGH CLOUDS STARTING
THURSDAY EVENING AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING PACIFIC LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM.

AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDED TAFS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...
THE STORM TRACK WILL BEGIN TO MOVE SOUTH THIS PERIOD ACROSS PARTS OF
ARIZONA. ONE RELATIVELY COOL AND BREEZY PACIFIC WEATHER SYSTEM WILL
MOVE INTO THE REGION FRIDAY. WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED IN
THE 10 TO 18 MPH RANGE FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING...WITH A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF SHOWERS FROM PHOENIX EAST INTO SOUTHERN GILA COUNTY.

ANOTHER WEATHER SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS NORTHERN ARIZONA
SUNDAY AND MONDAY. ALTHOUGH THESE SYSTEMS WILL BE DRY FOR SOUTHERN
ARIZONA...BREEZY TO WINDY NORTH TO NORTHEAST WINDS WILL DEVELOP
SUNDAY AND MONDAY...PARTICULARLY DOWN THE COLORADO RIVER VALLEY WITH
GUSTS TO 35 MPH POSSIBLE DURING THE AFTERNOONS.

MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITIES WILL RANGE FROM 25 TO 35 PERCENT...
FALLING DRAMATICALLY INTO THE TEENS MONDAY AND TUESDAY.

&&

.PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

AZ...NONE.

CA...NONE.

&&

$$

VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/PHOENIX

DISCUSSION...CB
AVIATION...KUHLMAN
FIRE WEATHER...VASQUEZ












000
FXUS65 KPSR 200935
AFDPSR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PHOENIX AZ
235 AM MST THU NOV 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A BRIEF PERIOD OF SUNNY SKIES IS EXPECTED TODAY BEFORE CONDITIONS
QUICKLY CHANGE AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH THE DESERT
SOUTHWEST TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. THE SYSTEM WILL BRING
CLOUDY SKIES AND COOLER TEMPERATURES ALONG WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
SHOWERS. DRY CONDITIONS WITH BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN
PLACE OVER THE WEEKEND AND LINGER INTO NEXT WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
DRY WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT IS NOW IN PLACE ACROSS AZ AND FAR SERN CA IN
THE WAKE OF A WEAK DISTURBANCE THAT PASSED THRU THE STATE YESTERDAY.
IR IMAGERY AT 2 AM SHOWED GENLY CLEAR SKIES ACROSS THE AREA. SURFACE
DEWPOINTS AT 1 AM WERE VERY LOW AND MOSTLY RANGED FROM THE TEENS TO
THE 20S OVER THE LOWER DESERTS. DRY WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL PERSIST
TODAY FOR MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES...WITH LITTLE CHANGE IN HIGH TEMPS
EXPECTED AS BOUNDARY LAYER TEMPS WILL REMAIN SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY.

MODEL GUIDANCE REMAINS VERY CONSISTENT IN CALLING FOR A MODEST
CHANGE IN THE WEATHER STARTING LATER TONIGHT...AS A PROGRESSIVE
UPPER LOW JUST OFF THE NRN CA/PAC NW COAST DIVES SOUTHEASTWARD AND
INLAND...AND INTO FAR SERN CA LEADING TO INCREASING CLOUDS AND A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS MAINLY ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN AREAS OF SERN
CA SUCH AS JOSHUA TREE NP. LATEST NAM/GFS/ECMWF ALL TRACK THE UPPER
LOW CENTER EASTWARD ALONG THE SRN AZ BORDER ON FRIDAY...AND AS SUCH
THE BEST DYNAMICS/PVA/UVV TRACKS THRU FAR SOUTHERN AZ AND ACROSS THE
SRN PORTION OF OUR CWA. H5 HEIGHT FALLS ARE MODEST...WITH MAX VALUES
RUNNING AROUND 80-100M...AND UPPER SUPPORT IS NOT OVERLY IMPRESSIVE.
ALSO...GIVEN THE OVERLAND TRAJECTORY OF THE PASSING SYSTEM...
MOISTURE IS NOT EXPECTED TO BE VERY SIGNIFICANT WITH MOST OF THE RH
CONFINED TO THE MID LEVELS...ABOVE 850 MB. FINALLY...FORECAST PWAT
VALUES ONLY RISE TO AROUND ONE HALF INCH ACROSS SRN AZ AS THE SYSTEM
PASSES THROUGH. AS SUCH...CHANCES FOR DECENT RAINFALL ARE NOT VERY
HIGH. QPF WILL BE LOW...MOSTLY LESS THAN ONE TENTH OF AN INCH...
WHERE IT DOES RAIN. WE WILL KEEP POP TRENDS MORE OR LESS AS IS AND
CALL FOR SLIGHT CHANCES FOR RAIN SHOWERS ON FRIDAY ACROSS SOUTH
CENTRAL AZ...WITH POPS IN THE GREATER PHOENIX AREA BETWEEN 10 AND 15
PERCENT. SLIGHTLY HIGHER POPS ARE EXPECTED IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN
AREAS TO THE EAST OF PHOENIX...EVEN THOUGH THE BEST DYNAMICS WILL
TRACK TO THE SOUTH OF GILA COUNTY. GIVEN THE HIGH AMOUNTS OF
MID/HIGH CLOUDS MOVING THRU ON FRIDAY...HIGH TEMPS WILL FALL OFF
SEVERAL DEGREES WITH THE COOLER CENTRAL DESERTS LOWERING INTO THE
UPPER 60S.

THE LOW IS FORECAST TO DIVE QUICKLY TO THE SOUTHEAST AND EXIT THE
STATE OVERNIGHT FRIDAY NIGHT LEAVING BEHIND COOL...DRY SUBSIDENT
NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT...FOR MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES ON SATURDAY. WE EXPECT
LITTLE CHANGE IN HIGH TEMPS SATURDAY ESPECIALLY ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL
AZ WHERE READINGS WILL STAY SLIGHTLY BELOW SEASONAL NORMALS...AND
AROUND 70 DEGREES.

AS THE UPPER RIDGE JUST OFF THE WEST COAST STARTS TO AMPLIFY
SUNDAY...ANOTHER SHORT WAVE WILL RIDE DOWN THE FRONT SIDE AND BRUSH
BY TO OUR NORTHEAST...MAINLY MOVING THROUGH THE CORNERS AREA. THIS
WILL BRING NO PRECIP TO OUR AREA...AND LITTLE IN TERMS OF CLOUD
COVER. IT WILL HOWEVER BRING ANOTHER SHOT OF COOLER AIR...WHICH WILL
LEAD TO HIGH TEMPS ON MONDAY DROPPING A FEW DEGREES. THE CENTRAL
DESERTS WILL LIKELY FALL OFF A FEW DEGREES AND INTO THE MID TO UPPER
60S FOR THE MOST PART UNDER MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES.

DRY NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL BUILD INTO THE AREA FROM THE WEST
TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY FOR A SLOW WARMING TREND. HIGH TEMPS WILL
CLIMB TO NEAR OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL BY WEDNESDAY AS SKIES REMAIN
MOSTLY SUNNY OR SUNNY.

&&

.AVIATION...
SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA INCLUDING KPHX...KIWA...AND KSDL...SOUTHEAST
CALIFORNIA AND SOUTHWEST ARIZONA...INCLUDING KIPL AND KBLH...

LITTLE CHANGE IS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS WITH CONTINUED
LIGHT WINDS AND CLEAR TO MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES THROUGH THURSDAY
MORNING. WILL SEE AN INCREASE IN MID AND HIGH CLOUDS STARTING
THURSDAY EVENING AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING PACIFIC LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM.

AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDED TAFS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...
THE STORM TRACK WILL BEGIN TO MOVE SOUTH THIS PERIOD ACROSS PARTS OF
ARIZONA. ONE RELATIVELY COOL AND BREEZY PACIFIC WEATHER SYSTEM WILL
MOVE INTO THE REGION FRIDAY. WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED IN
THE 10 TO 18 MPH RANGE FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING...WITH A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF SHOWERS FROM PHOENIX EAST INTO SOUTHERN GILA COUNTY.

ANOTHER WEATHER SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS NORTHERN ARIZONA
SUNDAY AND MONDAY. ALTHOUGH THESE SYSTEMS WILL BE DRY FOR SOUTHERN
ARIZONA...BREEZY TO WINDY NORTH TO NORTHEAST WINDS WILL DEVELOP
SUNDAY AND MONDAY...PARTICULARLY DOWN THE COLORADO RIVER VALLEY WITH
GUSTS TO 35 MPH POSSIBLE DURING THE AFTERNOONS.

MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITIES WILL RANGE FROM 25 TO 35 PERCENT...
FALLING DRAMATICALLY INTO THE TEENS MONDAY AND TUESDAY.

&&

.PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

AZ...NONE.

CA...NONE.

&&

$$

VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/PHOENIX

DISCUSSION...CB
AVIATION...KUHLMAN
FIRE WEATHER...VASQUEZ












000
FXUS65 KPSR 200935
AFDPSR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PHOENIX AZ
235 AM MST THU NOV 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A BRIEF PERIOD OF SUNNY SKIES IS EXPECTED TODAY BEFORE CONDITIONS
QUICKLY CHANGE AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH THE DESERT
SOUTHWEST TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. THE SYSTEM WILL BRING
CLOUDY SKIES AND COOLER TEMPERATURES ALONG WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
SHOWERS. DRY CONDITIONS WITH BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN
PLACE OVER THE WEEKEND AND LINGER INTO NEXT WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
DRY WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT IS NOW IN PLACE ACROSS AZ AND FAR SERN CA IN
THE WAKE OF A WEAK DISTURBANCE THAT PASSED THRU THE STATE YESTERDAY.
IR IMAGERY AT 2 AM SHOWED GENLY CLEAR SKIES ACROSS THE AREA. SURFACE
DEWPOINTS AT 1 AM WERE VERY LOW AND MOSTLY RANGED FROM THE TEENS TO
THE 20S OVER THE LOWER DESERTS. DRY WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL PERSIST
TODAY FOR MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES...WITH LITTLE CHANGE IN HIGH TEMPS
EXPECTED AS BOUNDARY LAYER TEMPS WILL REMAIN SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY.

MODEL GUIDANCE REMAINS VERY CONSISTENT IN CALLING FOR A MODEST
CHANGE IN THE WEATHER STARTING LATER TONIGHT...AS A PROGRESSIVE
UPPER LOW JUST OFF THE NRN CA/PAC NW COAST DIVES SOUTHEASTWARD AND
INLAND...AND INTO FAR SERN CA LEADING TO INCREASING CLOUDS AND A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS MAINLY ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN AREAS OF SERN
CA SUCH AS JOSHUA TREE NP. LATEST NAM/GFS/ECMWF ALL TRACK THE UPPER
LOW CENTER EASTWARD ALONG THE SRN AZ BORDER ON FRIDAY...AND AS SUCH
THE BEST DYNAMICS/PVA/UVV TRACKS THRU FAR SOUTHERN AZ AND ACROSS THE
SRN PORTION OF OUR CWA. H5 HEIGHT FALLS ARE MODEST...WITH MAX VALUES
RUNNING AROUND 80-100M...AND UPPER SUPPORT IS NOT OVERLY IMPRESSIVE.
ALSO...GIVEN THE OVERLAND TRAJECTORY OF THE PASSING SYSTEM...
MOISTURE IS NOT EXPECTED TO BE VERY SIGNIFICANT WITH MOST OF THE RH
CONFINED TO THE MID LEVELS...ABOVE 850 MB. FINALLY...FORECAST PWAT
VALUES ONLY RISE TO AROUND ONE HALF INCH ACROSS SRN AZ AS THE SYSTEM
PASSES THROUGH. AS SUCH...CHANCES FOR DECENT RAINFALL ARE NOT VERY
HIGH. QPF WILL BE LOW...MOSTLY LESS THAN ONE TENTH OF AN INCH...
WHERE IT DOES RAIN. WE WILL KEEP POP TRENDS MORE OR LESS AS IS AND
CALL FOR SLIGHT CHANCES FOR RAIN SHOWERS ON FRIDAY ACROSS SOUTH
CENTRAL AZ...WITH POPS IN THE GREATER PHOENIX AREA BETWEEN 10 AND 15
PERCENT. SLIGHTLY HIGHER POPS ARE EXPECTED IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN
AREAS TO THE EAST OF PHOENIX...EVEN THOUGH THE BEST DYNAMICS WILL
TRACK TO THE SOUTH OF GILA COUNTY. GIVEN THE HIGH AMOUNTS OF
MID/HIGH CLOUDS MOVING THRU ON FRIDAY...HIGH TEMPS WILL FALL OFF
SEVERAL DEGREES WITH THE COOLER CENTRAL DESERTS LOWERING INTO THE
UPPER 60S.

THE LOW IS FORECAST TO DIVE QUICKLY TO THE SOUTHEAST AND EXIT THE
STATE OVERNIGHT FRIDAY NIGHT LEAVING BEHIND COOL...DRY SUBSIDENT
NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT...FOR MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES ON SATURDAY. WE EXPECT
LITTLE CHANGE IN HIGH TEMPS SATURDAY ESPECIALLY ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL
AZ WHERE READINGS WILL STAY SLIGHTLY BELOW SEASONAL NORMALS...AND
AROUND 70 DEGREES.

AS THE UPPER RIDGE JUST OFF THE WEST COAST STARTS TO AMPLIFY
SUNDAY...ANOTHER SHORT WAVE WILL RIDE DOWN THE FRONT SIDE AND BRUSH
BY TO OUR NORTHEAST...MAINLY MOVING THROUGH THE CORNERS AREA. THIS
WILL BRING NO PRECIP TO OUR AREA...AND LITTLE IN TERMS OF CLOUD
COVER. IT WILL HOWEVER BRING ANOTHER SHOT OF COOLER AIR...WHICH WILL
LEAD TO HIGH TEMPS ON MONDAY DROPPING A FEW DEGREES. THE CENTRAL
DESERTS WILL LIKELY FALL OFF A FEW DEGREES AND INTO THE MID TO UPPER
60S FOR THE MOST PART UNDER MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES.

DRY NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL BUILD INTO THE AREA FROM THE WEST
TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY FOR A SLOW WARMING TREND. HIGH TEMPS WILL
CLIMB TO NEAR OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL BY WEDNESDAY AS SKIES REMAIN
MOSTLY SUNNY OR SUNNY.

&&

.AVIATION...
SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA INCLUDING KPHX...KIWA...AND KSDL...SOUTHEAST
CALIFORNIA AND SOUTHWEST ARIZONA...INCLUDING KIPL AND KBLH...

LITTLE CHANGE IS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS WITH CONTINUED
LIGHT WINDS AND CLEAR TO MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES THROUGH THURSDAY
MORNING. WILL SEE AN INCREASE IN MID AND HIGH CLOUDS STARTING
THURSDAY EVENING AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING PACIFIC LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM.

AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDED TAFS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...
THE STORM TRACK WILL BEGIN TO MOVE SOUTH THIS PERIOD ACROSS PARTS OF
ARIZONA. ONE RELATIVELY COOL AND BREEZY PACIFIC WEATHER SYSTEM WILL
MOVE INTO THE REGION FRIDAY. WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED IN
THE 10 TO 18 MPH RANGE FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING...WITH A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF SHOWERS FROM PHOENIX EAST INTO SOUTHERN GILA COUNTY.

ANOTHER WEATHER SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS NORTHERN ARIZONA
SUNDAY AND MONDAY. ALTHOUGH THESE SYSTEMS WILL BE DRY FOR SOUTHERN
ARIZONA...BREEZY TO WINDY NORTH TO NORTHEAST WINDS WILL DEVELOP
SUNDAY AND MONDAY...PARTICULARLY DOWN THE COLORADO RIVER VALLEY WITH
GUSTS TO 35 MPH POSSIBLE DURING THE AFTERNOONS.

MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITIES WILL RANGE FROM 25 TO 35 PERCENT...
FALLING DRAMATICALLY INTO THE TEENS MONDAY AND TUESDAY.

&&

.PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

AZ...NONE.

CA...NONE.

&&

$$

VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/PHOENIX

DISCUSSION...CB
AVIATION...KUHLMAN
FIRE WEATHER...VASQUEZ












000
FXUS65 KPSR 200935
AFDPSR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PHOENIX AZ
235 AM MST THU NOV 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A BRIEF PERIOD OF SUNNY SKIES IS EXPECTED TODAY BEFORE CONDITIONS
QUICKLY CHANGE AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH THE DESERT
SOUTHWEST TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. THE SYSTEM WILL BRING
CLOUDY SKIES AND COOLER TEMPERATURES ALONG WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
SHOWERS. DRY CONDITIONS WITH BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN
PLACE OVER THE WEEKEND AND LINGER INTO NEXT WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
DRY WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT IS NOW IN PLACE ACROSS AZ AND FAR SERN CA IN
THE WAKE OF A WEAK DISTURBANCE THAT PASSED THRU THE STATE YESTERDAY.
IR IMAGERY AT 2 AM SHOWED GENLY CLEAR SKIES ACROSS THE AREA. SURFACE
DEWPOINTS AT 1 AM WERE VERY LOW AND MOSTLY RANGED FROM THE TEENS TO
THE 20S OVER THE LOWER DESERTS. DRY WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL PERSIST
TODAY FOR MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES...WITH LITTLE CHANGE IN HIGH TEMPS
EXPECTED AS BOUNDARY LAYER TEMPS WILL REMAIN SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY.

MODEL GUIDANCE REMAINS VERY CONSISTENT IN CALLING FOR A MODEST
CHANGE IN THE WEATHER STARTING LATER TONIGHT...AS A PROGRESSIVE
UPPER LOW JUST OFF THE NRN CA/PAC NW COAST DIVES SOUTHEASTWARD AND
INLAND...AND INTO FAR SERN CA LEADING TO INCREASING CLOUDS AND A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS MAINLY ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN AREAS OF SERN
CA SUCH AS JOSHUA TREE NP. LATEST NAM/GFS/ECMWF ALL TRACK THE UPPER
LOW CENTER EASTWARD ALONG THE SRN AZ BORDER ON FRIDAY...AND AS SUCH
THE BEST DYNAMICS/PVA/UVV TRACKS THRU FAR SOUTHERN AZ AND ACROSS THE
SRN PORTION OF OUR CWA. H5 HEIGHT FALLS ARE MODEST...WITH MAX VALUES
RUNNING AROUND 80-100M...AND UPPER SUPPORT IS NOT OVERLY IMPRESSIVE.
ALSO...GIVEN THE OVERLAND TRAJECTORY OF THE PASSING SYSTEM...
MOISTURE IS NOT EXPECTED TO BE VERY SIGNIFICANT WITH MOST OF THE RH
CONFINED TO THE MID LEVELS...ABOVE 850 MB. FINALLY...FORECAST PWAT
VALUES ONLY RISE TO AROUND ONE HALF INCH ACROSS SRN AZ AS THE SYSTEM
PASSES THROUGH. AS SUCH...CHANCES FOR DECENT RAINFALL ARE NOT VERY
HIGH. QPF WILL BE LOW...MOSTLY LESS THAN ONE TENTH OF AN INCH...
WHERE IT DOES RAIN. WE WILL KEEP POP TRENDS MORE OR LESS AS IS AND
CALL FOR SLIGHT CHANCES FOR RAIN SHOWERS ON FRIDAY ACROSS SOUTH
CENTRAL AZ...WITH POPS IN THE GREATER PHOENIX AREA BETWEEN 10 AND 15
PERCENT. SLIGHTLY HIGHER POPS ARE EXPECTED IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN
AREAS TO THE EAST OF PHOENIX...EVEN THOUGH THE BEST DYNAMICS WILL
TRACK TO THE SOUTH OF GILA COUNTY. GIVEN THE HIGH AMOUNTS OF
MID/HIGH CLOUDS MOVING THRU ON FRIDAY...HIGH TEMPS WILL FALL OFF
SEVERAL DEGREES WITH THE COOLER CENTRAL DESERTS LOWERING INTO THE
UPPER 60S.

THE LOW IS FORECAST TO DIVE QUICKLY TO THE SOUTHEAST AND EXIT THE
STATE OVERNIGHT FRIDAY NIGHT LEAVING BEHIND COOL...DRY SUBSIDENT
NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT...FOR MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES ON SATURDAY. WE EXPECT
LITTLE CHANGE IN HIGH TEMPS SATURDAY ESPECIALLY ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL
AZ WHERE READINGS WILL STAY SLIGHTLY BELOW SEASONAL NORMALS...AND
AROUND 70 DEGREES.

AS THE UPPER RIDGE JUST OFF THE WEST COAST STARTS TO AMPLIFY
SUNDAY...ANOTHER SHORT WAVE WILL RIDE DOWN THE FRONT SIDE AND BRUSH
BY TO OUR NORTHEAST...MAINLY MOVING THROUGH THE CORNERS AREA. THIS
WILL BRING NO PRECIP TO OUR AREA...AND LITTLE IN TERMS OF CLOUD
COVER. IT WILL HOWEVER BRING ANOTHER SHOT OF COOLER AIR...WHICH WILL
LEAD TO HIGH TEMPS ON MONDAY DROPPING A FEW DEGREES. THE CENTRAL
DESERTS WILL LIKELY FALL OFF A FEW DEGREES AND INTO THE MID TO UPPER
60S FOR THE MOST PART UNDER MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES.

DRY NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL BUILD INTO THE AREA FROM THE WEST
TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY FOR A SLOW WARMING TREND. HIGH TEMPS WILL
CLIMB TO NEAR OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL BY WEDNESDAY AS SKIES REMAIN
MOSTLY SUNNY OR SUNNY.

&&

.AVIATION...
SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA INCLUDING KPHX...KIWA...AND KSDL...SOUTHEAST
CALIFORNIA AND SOUTHWEST ARIZONA...INCLUDING KIPL AND KBLH...

LITTLE CHANGE IS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS WITH CONTINUED
LIGHT WINDS AND CLEAR TO MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES THROUGH THURSDAY
MORNING. WILL SEE AN INCREASE IN MID AND HIGH CLOUDS STARTING
THURSDAY EVENING AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING PACIFIC LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM.

AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDED TAFS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...
THE STORM TRACK WILL BEGIN TO MOVE SOUTH THIS PERIOD ACROSS PARTS OF
ARIZONA. ONE RELATIVELY COOL AND BREEZY PACIFIC WEATHER SYSTEM WILL
MOVE INTO THE REGION FRIDAY. WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED IN
THE 10 TO 18 MPH RANGE FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING...WITH A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF SHOWERS FROM PHOENIX EAST INTO SOUTHERN GILA COUNTY.

ANOTHER WEATHER SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS NORTHERN ARIZONA
SUNDAY AND MONDAY. ALTHOUGH THESE SYSTEMS WILL BE DRY FOR SOUTHERN
ARIZONA...BREEZY TO WINDY NORTH TO NORTHEAST WINDS WILL DEVELOP
SUNDAY AND MONDAY...PARTICULARLY DOWN THE COLORADO RIVER VALLEY WITH
GUSTS TO 35 MPH POSSIBLE DURING THE AFTERNOONS.

MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITIES WILL RANGE FROM 25 TO 35 PERCENT...
FALLING DRAMATICALLY INTO THE TEENS MONDAY AND TUESDAY.

&&

.PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

AZ...NONE.

CA...NONE.

&&

$$

VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/PHOENIX

DISCUSSION...CB
AVIATION...KUHLMAN
FIRE WEATHER...VASQUEZ












000
FXUS65 KPSR 200935
AFDPSR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PHOENIX AZ
235 AM MST THU NOV 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A BRIEF PERIOD OF SUNNY SKIES IS EXPECTED TODAY BEFORE CONDITIONS
QUICKLY CHANGE AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH THE DESERT
SOUTHWEST TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. THE SYSTEM WILL BRING
CLOUDY SKIES AND COOLER TEMPERATURES ALONG WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
SHOWERS. DRY CONDITIONS WITH BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN
PLACE OVER THE WEEKEND AND LINGER INTO NEXT WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
DRY WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT IS NOW IN PLACE ACROSS AZ AND FAR SERN CA IN
THE WAKE OF A WEAK DISTURBANCE THAT PASSED THRU THE STATE YESTERDAY.
IR IMAGERY AT 2 AM SHOWED GENLY CLEAR SKIES ACROSS THE AREA. SURFACE
DEWPOINTS AT 1 AM WERE VERY LOW AND MOSTLY RANGED FROM THE TEENS TO
THE 20S OVER THE LOWER DESERTS. DRY WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL PERSIST
TODAY FOR MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES...WITH LITTLE CHANGE IN HIGH TEMPS
EXPECTED AS BOUNDARY LAYER TEMPS WILL REMAIN SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY.

MODEL GUIDANCE REMAINS VERY CONSISTENT IN CALLING FOR A MODEST
CHANGE IN THE WEATHER STARTING LATER TONIGHT...AS A PROGRESSIVE
UPPER LOW JUST OFF THE NRN CA/PAC NW COAST DIVES SOUTHEASTWARD AND
INLAND...AND INTO FAR SERN CA LEADING TO INCREASING CLOUDS AND A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS MAINLY ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN AREAS OF SERN
CA SUCH AS JOSHUA TREE NP. LATEST NAM/GFS/ECMWF ALL TRACK THE UPPER
LOW CENTER EASTWARD ALONG THE SRN AZ BORDER ON FRIDAY...AND AS SUCH
THE BEST DYNAMICS/PVA/UVV TRACKS THRU FAR SOUTHERN AZ AND ACROSS THE
SRN PORTION OF OUR CWA. H5 HEIGHT FALLS ARE MODEST...WITH MAX VALUES
RUNNING AROUND 80-100M...AND UPPER SUPPORT IS NOT OVERLY IMPRESSIVE.
ALSO...GIVEN THE OVERLAND TRAJECTORY OF THE PASSING SYSTEM...
MOISTURE IS NOT EXPECTED TO BE VERY SIGNIFICANT WITH MOST OF THE RH
CONFINED TO THE MID LEVELS...ABOVE 850 MB. FINALLY...FORECAST PWAT
VALUES ONLY RISE TO AROUND ONE HALF INCH ACROSS SRN AZ AS THE SYSTEM
PASSES THROUGH. AS SUCH...CHANCES FOR DECENT RAINFALL ARE NOT VERY
HIGH. QPF WILL BE LOW...MOSTLY LESS THAN ONE TENTH OF AN INCH...
WHERE IT DOES RAIN. WE WILL KEEP POP TRENDS MORE OR LESS AS IS AND
CALL FOR SLIGHT CHANCES FOR RAIN SHOWERS ON FRIDAY ACROSS SOUTH
CENTRAL AZ...WITH POPS IN THE GREATER PHOENIX AREA BETWEEN 10 AND 15
PERCENT. SLIGHTLY HIGHER POPS ARE EXPECTED IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN
AREAS TO THE EAST OF PHOENIX...EVEN THOUGH THE BEST DYNAMICS WILL
TRACK TO THE SOUTH OF GILA COUNTY. GIVEN THE HIGH AMOUNTS OF
MID/HIGH CLOUDS MOVING THRU ON FRIDAY...HIGH TEMPS WILL FALL OFF
SEVERAL DEGREES WITH THE COOLER CENTRAL DESERTS LOWERING INTO THE
UPPER 60S.

THE LOW IS FORECAST TO DIVE QUICKLY TO THE SOUTHEAST AND EXIT THE
STATE OVERNIGHT FRIDAY NIGHT LEAVING BEHIND COOL...DRY SUBSIDENT
NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT...FOR MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES ON SATURDAY. WE EXPECT
LITTLE CHANGE IN HIGH TEMPS SATURDAY ESPECIALLY ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL
AZ WHERE READINGS WILL STAY SLIGHTLY BELOW SEASONAL NORMALS...AND
AROUND 70 DEGREES.

AS THE UPPER RIDGE JUST OFF THE WEST COAST STARTS TO AMPLIFY
SUNDAY...ANOTHER SHORT WAVE WILL RIDE DOWN THE FRONT SIDE AND BRUSH
BY TO OUR NORTHEAST...MAINLY MOVING THROUGH THE CORNERS AREA. THIS
WILL BRING NO PRECIP TO OUR AREA...AND LITTLE IN TERMS OF CLOUD
COVER. IT WILL HOWEVER BRING ANOTHER SHOT OF COOLER AIR...WHICH WILL
LEAD TO HIGH TEMPS ON MONDAY DROPPING A FEW DEGREES. THE CENTRAL
DESERTS WILL LIKELY FALL OFF A FEW DEGREES AND INTO THE MID TO UPPER
60S FOR THE MOST PART UNDER MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES.

DRY NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL BUILD INTO THE AREA FROM THE WEST
TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY FOR A SLOW WARMING TREND. HIGH TEMPS WILL
CLIMB TO NEAR OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL BY WEDNESDAY AS SKIES REMAIN
MOSTLY SUNNY OR SUNNY.

&&

.AVIATION...
SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA INCLUDING KPHX...KIWA...AND KSDL...SOUTHEAST
CALIFORNIA AND SOUTHWEST ARIZONA...INCLUDING KIPL AND KBLH...

LITTLE CHANGE IS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS WITH CONTINUED
LIGHT WINDS AND CLEAR TO MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES THROUGH THURSDAY
MORNING. WILL SEE AN INCREASE IN MID AND HIGH CLOUDS STARTING
THURSDAY EVENING AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING PACIFIC LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM.

AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDED TAFS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...
THE STORM TRACK WILL BEGIN TO MOVE SOUTH THIS PERIOD ACROSS PARTS OF
ARIZONA. ONE RELATIVELY COOL AND BREEZY PACIFIC WEATHER SYSTEM WILL
MOVE INTO THE REGION FRIDAY. WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED IN
THE 10 TO 18 MPH RANGE FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING...WITH A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF SHOWERS FROM PHOENIX EAST INTO SOUTHERN GILA COUNTY.

ANOTHER WEATHER SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS NORTHERN ARIZONA
SUNDAY AND MONDAY. ALTHOUGH THESE SYSTEMS WILL BE DRY FOR SOUTHERN
ARIZONA...BREEZY TO WINDY NORTH TO NORTHEAST WINDS WILL DEVELOP
SUNDAY AND MONDAY...PARTICULARLY DOWN THE COLORADO RIVER VALLEY WITH
GUSTS TO 35 MPH POSSIBLE DURING THE AFTERNOONS.

MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITIES WILL RANGE FROM 25 TO 35 PERCENT...
FALLING DRAMATICALLY INTO THE TEENS MONDAY AND TUESDAY.

&&

.PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

AZ...NONE.

CA...NONE.

&&

$$

VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/PHOENIX

DISCUSSION...CB
AVIATION...KUHLMAN
FIRE WEATHER...VASQUEZ












000
FXUS65 KPSR 200935
AFDPSR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PHOENIX AZ
235 AM MST THU NOV 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A BRIEF PERIOD OF SUNNY SKIES IS EXPECTED TODAY BEFORE CONDITIONS
QUICKLY CHANGE AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH THE DESERT
SOUTHWEST TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. THE SYSTEM WILL BRING
CLOUDY SKIES AND COOLER TEMPERATURES ALONG WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
SHOWERS. DRY CONDITIONS WITH BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN
PLACE OVER THE WEEKEND AND LINGER INTO NEXT WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
DRY WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT IS NOW IN PLACE ACROSS AZ AND FAR SERN CA IN
THE WAKE OF A WEAK DISTURBANCE THAT PASSED THRU THE STATE YESTERDAY.
IR IMAGERY AT 2 AM SHOWED GENLY CLEAR SKIES ACROSS THE AREA. SURFACE
DEWPOINTS AT 1 AM WERE VERY LOW AND MOSTLY RANGED FROM THE TEENS TO
THE 20S OVER THE LOWER DESERTS. DRY WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL PERSIST
TODAY FOR MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES...WITH LITTLE CHANGE IN HIGH TEMPS
EXPECTED AS BOUNDARY LAYER TEMPS WILL REMAIN SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY.

MODEL GUIDANCE REMAINS VERY CONSISTENT IN CALLING FOR A MODEST
CHANGE IN THE WEATHER STARTING LATER TONIGHT...AS A PROGRESSIVE
UPPER LOW JUST OFF THE NRN CA/PAC NW COAST DIVES SOUTHEASTWARD AND
INLAND...AND INTO FAR SERN CA LEADING TO INCREASING CLOUDS AND A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS MAINLY ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN AREAS OF SERN
CA SUCH AS JOSHUA TREE NP. LATEST NAM/GFS/ECMWF ALL TRACK THE UPPER
LOW CENTER EASTWARD ALONG THE SRN AZ BORDER ON FRIDAY...AND AS SUCH
THE BEST DYNAMICS/PVA/UVV TRACKS THRU FAR SOUTHERN AZ AND ACROSS THE
SRN PORTION OF OUR CWA. H5 HEIGHT FALLS ARE MODEST...WITH MAX VALUES
RUNNING AROUND 80-100M...AND UPPER SUPPORT IS NOT OVERLY IMPRESSIVE.
ALSO...GIVEN THE OVERLAND TRAJECTORY OF THE PASSING SYSTEM...
MOISTURE IS NOT EXPECTED TO BE VERY SIGNIFICANT WITH MOST OF THE RH
CONFINED TO THE MID LEVELS...ABOVE 850 MB. FINALLY...FORECAST PWAT
VALUES ONLY RISE TO AROUND ONE HALF INCH ACROSS SRN AZ AS THE SYSTEM
PASSES THROUGH. AS SUCH...CHANCES FOR DECENT RAINFALL ARE NOT VERY
HIGH. QPF WILL BE LOW...MOSTLY LESS THAN ONE TENTH OF AN INCH...
WHERE IT DOES RAIN. WE WILL KEEP POP TRENDS MORE OR LESS AS IS AND
CALL FOR SLIGHT CHANCES FOR RAIN SHOWERS ON FRIDAY ACROSS SOUTH
CENTRAL AZ...WITH POPS IN THE GREATER PHOENIX AREA BETWEEN 10 AND 15
PERCENT. SLIGHTLY HIGHER POPS ARE EXPECTED IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN
AREAS TO THE EAST OF PHOENIX...EVEN THOUGH THE BEST DYNAMICS WILL
TRACK TO THE SOUTH OF GILA COUNTY. GIVEN THE HIGH AMOUNTS OF
MID/HIGH CLOUDS MOVING THRU ON FRIDAY...HIGH TEMPS WILL FALL OFF
SEVERAL DEGREES WITH THE COOLER CENTRAL DESERTS LOWERING INTO THE
UPPER 60S.

THE LOW IS FORECAST TO DIVE QUICKLY TO THE SOUTHEAST AND EXIT THE
STATE OVERNIGHT FRIDAY NIGHT LEAVING BEHIND COOL...DRY SUBSIDENT
NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT...FOR MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES ON SATURDAY. WE EXPECT
LITTLE CHANGE IN HIGH TEMPS SATURDAY ESPECIALLY ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL
AZ WHERE READINGS WILL STAY SLIGHTLY BELOW SEASONAL NORMALS...AND
AROUND 70 DEGREES.

AS THE UPPER RIDGE JUST OFF THE WEST COAST STARTS TO AMPLIFY
SUNDAY...ANOTHER SHORT WAVE WILL RIDE DOWN THE FRONT SIDE AND BRUSH
BY TO OUR NORTHEAST...MAINLY MOVING THROUGH THE CORNERS AREA. THIS
WILL BRING NO PRECIP TO OUR AREA...AND LITTLE IN TERMS OF CLOUD
COVER. IT WILL HOWEVER BRING ANOTHER SHOT OF COOLER AIR...WHICH WILL
LEAD TO HIGH TEMPS ON MONDAY DROPPING A FEW DEGREES. THE CENTRAL
DESERTS WILL LIKELY FALL OFF A FEW DEGREES AND INTO THE MID TO UPPER
60S FOR THE MOST PART UNDER MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES.

DRY NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL BUILD INTO THE AREA FROM THE WEST
TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY FOR A SLOW WARMING TREND. HIGH TEMPS WILL
CLIMB TO NEAR OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL BY WEDNESDAY AS SKIES REMAIN
MOSTLY SUNNY OR SUNNY.

&&

.AVIATION...
SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA INCLUDING KPHX...KIWA...AND KSDL...SOUTHEAST
CALIFORNIA AND SOUTHWEST ARIZONA...INCLUDING KIPL AND KBLH...

LITTLE CHANGE IS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS WITH CONTINUED
LIGHT WINDS AND CLEAR TO MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES THROUGH THURSDAY
MORNING. WILL SEE AN INCREASE IN MID AND HIGH CLOUDS STARTING
THURSDAY EVENING AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING PACIFIC LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM.

AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDED TAFS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...
THE STORM TRACK WILL BEGIN TO MOVE SOUTH THIS PERIOD ACROSS PARTS OF
ARIZONA. ONE RELATIVELY COOL AND BREEZY PACIFIC WEATHER SYSTEM WILL
MOVE INTO THE REGION FRIDAY. WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED IN
THE 10 TO 18 MPH RANGE FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING...WITH A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF SHOWERS FROM PHOENIX EAST INTO SOUTHERN GILA COUNTY.

ANOTHER WEATHER SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS NORTHERN ARIZONA
SUNDAY AND MONDAY. ALTHOUGH THESE SYSTEMS WILL BE DRY FOR SOUTHERN
ARIZONA...BREEZY TO WINDY NORTH TO NORTHEAST WINDS WILL DEVELOP
SUNDAY AND MONDAY...PARTICULARLY DOWN THE COLORADO RIVER VALLEY WITH
GUSTS TO 35 MPH POSSIBLE DURING THE AFTERNOONS.

MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITIES WILL RANGE FROM 25 TO 35 PERCENT...
FALLING DRAMATICALLY INTO THE TEENS MONDAY AND TUESDAY.

&&

.PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

AZ...NONE.

CA...NONE.

&&

$$

VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/PHOENIX

DISCUSSION...CB
AVIATION...KUHLMAN
FIRE WEATHER...VASQUEZ












000
FXUS65 KPSR 200935
AFDPSR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PHOENIX AZ
235 AM MST THU NOV 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A BRIEF PERIOD OF SUNNY SKIES IS EXPECTED TODAY BEFORE CONDITIONS
QUICKLY CHANGE AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH THE DESERT
SOUTHWEST TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. THE SYSTEM WILL BRING
CLOUDY SKIES AND COOLER TEMPERATURES ALONG WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
SHOWERS. DRY CONDITIONS WITH BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN
PLACE OVER THE WEEKEND AND LINGER INTO NEXT WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
DRY WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT IS NOW IN PLACE ACROSS AZ AND FAR SERN CA IN
THE WAKE OF A WEAK DISTURBANCE THAT PASSED THRU THE STATE YESTERDAY.
IR IMAGERY AT 2 AM SHOWED GENLY CLEAR SKIES ACROSS THE AREA. SURFACE
DEWPOINTS AT 1 AM WERE VERY LOW AND MOSTLY RANGED FROM THE TEENS TO
THE 20S OVER THE LOWER DESERTS. DRY WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL PERSIST
TODAY FOR MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES...WITH LITTLE CHANGE IN HIGH TEMPS
EXPECTED AS BOUNDARY LAYER TEMPS WILL REMAIN SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY.

MODEL GUIDANCE REMAINS VERY CONSISTENT IN CALLING FOR A MODEST
CHANGE IN THE WEATHER STARTING LATER TONIGHT...AS A PROGRESSIVE
UPPER LOW JUST OFF THE NRN CA/PAC NW COAST DIVES SOUTHEASTWARD AND
INLAND...AND INTO FAR SERN CA LEADING TO INCREASING CLOUDS AND A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS MAINLY ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN AREAS OF SERN
CA SUCH AS JOSHUA TREE NP. LATEST NAM/GFS/ECMWF ALL TRACK THE UPPER
LOW CENTER EASTWARD ALONG THE SRN AZ BORDER ON FRIDAY...AND AS SUCH
THE BEST DYNAMICS/PVA/UVV TRACKS THRU FAR SOUTHERN AZ AND ACROSS THE
SRN PORTION OF OUR CWA. H5 HEIGHT FALLS ARE MODEST...WITH MAX VALUES
RUNNING AROUND 80-100M...AND UPPER SUPPORT IS NOT OVERLY IMPRESSIVE.
ALSO...GIVEN THE OVERLAND TRAJECTORY OF THE PASSING SYSTEM...
MOISTURE IS NOT EXPECTED TO BE VERY SIGNIFICANT WITH MOST OF THE RH
CONFINED TO THE MID LEVELS...ABOVE 850 MB. FINALLY...FORECAST PWAT
VALUES ONLY RISE TO AROUND ONE HALF INCH ACROSS SRN AZ AS THE SYSTEM
PASSES THROUGH. AS SUCH...CHANCES FOR DECENT RAINFALL ARE NOT VERY
HIGH. QPF WILL BE LOW...MOSTLY LESS THAN ONE TENTH OF AN INCH...
WHERE IT DOES RAIN. WE WILL KEEP POP TRENDS MORE OR LESS AS IS AND
CALL FOR SLIGHT CHANCES FOR RAIN SHOWERS ON FRIDAY ACROSS SOUTH
CENTRAL AZ...WITH POPS IN THE GREATER PHOENIX AREA BETWEEN 10 AND 15
PERCENT. SLIGHTLY HIGHER POPS ARE EXPECTED IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN
AREAS TO THE EAST OF PHOENIX...EVEN THOUGH THE BEST DYNAMICS WILL
TRACK TO THE SOUTH OF GILA COUNTY. GIVEN THE HIGH AMOUNTS OF
MID/HIGH CLOUDS MOVING THRU ON FRIDAY...HIGH TEMPS WILL FALL OFF
SEVERAL DEGREES WITH THE COOLER CENTRAL DESERTS LOWERING INTO THE
UPPER 60S.

THE LOW IS FORECAST TO DIVE QUICKLY TO THE SOUTHEAST AND EXIT THE
STATE OVERNIGHT FRIDAY NIGHT LEAVING BEHIND COOL...DRY SUBSIDENT
NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT...FOR MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES ON SATURDAY. WE EXPECT
LITTLE CHANGE IN HIGH TEMPS SATURDAY ESPECIALLY ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL
AZ WHERE READINGS WILL STAY SLIGHTLY BELOW SEASONAL NORMALS...AND
AROUND 70 DEGREES.

AS THE UPPER RIDGE JUST OFF THE WEST COAST STARTS TO AMPLIFY
SUNDAY...ANOTHER SHORT WAVE WILL RIDE DOWN THE FRONT SIDE AND BRUSH
BY TO OUR NORTHEAST...MAINLY MOVING THROUGH THE CORNERS AREA. THIS
WILL BRING NO PRECIP TO OUR AREA...AND LITTLE IN TERMS OF CLOUD
COVER. IT WILL HOWEVER BRING ANOTHER SHOT OF COOLER AIR...WHICH WILL
LEAD TO HIGH TEMPS ON MONDAY DROPPING A FEW DEGREES. THE CENTRAL
DESERTS WILL LIKELY FALL OFF A FEW DEGREES AND INTO THE MID TO UPPER
60S FOR THE MOST PART UNDER MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES.

DRY NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL BUILD INTO THE AREA FROM THE WEST
TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY FOR A SLOW WARMING TREND. HIGH TEMPS WILL
CLIMB TO NEAR OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL BY WEDNESDAY AS SKIES REMAIN
MOSTLY SUNNY OR SUNNY.

&&

.AVIATION...
SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA INCLUDING KPHX...KIWA...AND KSDL...SOUTHEAST
CALIFORNIA AND SOUTHWEST ARIZONA...INCLUDING KIPL AND KBLH...

LITTLE CHANGE IS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS WITH CONTINUED
LIGHT WINDS AND CLEAR TO MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES THROUGH THURSDAY
MORNING. WILL SEE AN INCREASE IN MID AND HIGH CLOUDS STARTING
THURSDAY EVENING AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING PACIFIC LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM.

AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDED TAFS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...
THE STORM TRACK WILL BEGIN TO MOVE SOUTH THIS PERIOD ACROSS PARTS OF
ARIZONA. ONE RELATIVELY COOL AND BREEZY PACIFIC WEATHER SYSTEM WILL
MOVE INTO THE REGION FRIDAY. WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED IN
THE 10 TO 18 MPH RANGE FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING...WITH A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF SHOWERS FROM PHOENIX EAST INTO SOUTHERN GILA COUNTY.

ANOTHER WEATHER SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS NORTHERN ARIZONA
SUNDAY AND MONDAY. ALTHOUGH THESE SYSTEMS WILL BE DRY FOR SOUTHERN
ARIZONA...BREEZY TO WINDY NORTH TO NORTHEAST WINDS WILL DEVELOP
SUNDAY AND MONDAY...PARTICULARLY DOWN THE COLORADO RIVER VALLEY WITH
GUSTS TO 35 MPH POSSIBLE DURING THE AFTERNOONS.

MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITIES WILL RANGE FROM 25 TO 35 PERCENT...
FALLING DRAMATICALLY INTO THE TEENS MONDAY AND TUESDAY.

&&

.PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

AZ...NONE.

CA...NONE.

&&

$$

VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/PHOENIX

DISCUSSION...CB
AVIATION...KUHLMAN
FIRE WEATHER...VASQUEZ












000
FXUS65 KPSR 200935
AFDPSR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PHOENIX AZ
235 AM MST THU NOV 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A BRIEF PERIOD OF SUNNY SKIES IS EXPECTED TODAY BEFORE CONDITIONS
QUICKLY CHANGE AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH THE DESERT
SOUTHWEST TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. THE SYSTEM WILL BRING
CLOUDY SKIES AND COOLER TEMPERATURES ALONG WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
SHOWERS. DRY CONDITIONS WITH BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN
PLACE OVER THE WEEKEND AND LINGER INTO NEXT WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
DRY WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT IS NOW IN PLACE ACROSS AZ AND FAR SERN CA IN
THE WAKE OF A WEAK DISTURBANCE THAT PASSED THRU THE STATE YESTERDAY.
IR IMAGERY AT 2 AM SHOWED GENLY CLEAR SKIES ACROSS THE AREA. SURFACE
DEWPOINTS AT 1 AM WERE VERY LOW AND MOSTLY RANGED FROM THE TEENS TO
THE 20S OVER THE LOWER DESERTS. DRY WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL PERSIST
TODAY FOR MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES...WITH LITTLE CHANGE IN HIGH TEMPS
EXPECTED AS BOUNDARY LAYER TEMPS WILL REMAIN SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY.

MODEL GUIDANCE REMAINS VERY CONSISTENT IN CALLING FOR A MODEST
CHANGE IN THE WEATHER STARTING LATER TONIGHT...AS A PROGRESSIVE
UPPER LOW JUST OFF THE NRN CA/PAC NW COAST DIVES SOUTHEASTWARD AND
INLAND...AND INTO FAR SERN CA LEADING TO INCREASING CLOUDS AND A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS MAINLY ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN AREAS OF SERN
CA SUCH AS JOSHUA TREE NP. LATEST NAM/GFS/ECMWF ALL TRACK THE UPPER
LOW CENTER EASTWARD ALONG THE SRN AZ BORDER ON FRIDAY...AND AS SUCH
THE BEST DYNAMICS/PVA/UVV TRACKS THRU FAR SOUTHERN AZ AND ACROSS THE
SRN PORTION OF OUR CWA. H5 HEIGHT FALLS ARE MODEST...WITH MAX VALUES
RUNNING AROUND 80-100M...AND UPPER SUPPORT IS NOT OVERLY IMPRESSIVE.
ALSO...GIVEN THE OVERLAND TRAJECTORY OF THE PASSING SYSTEM...
MOISTURE IS NOT EXPECTED TO BE VERY SIGNIFICANT WITH MOST OF THE RH
CONFINED TO THE MID LEVELS...ABOVE 850 MB. FINALLY...FORECAST PWAT
VALUES ONLY RISE TO AROUND ONE HALF INCH ACROSS SRN AZ AS THE SYSTEM
PASSES THROUGH. AS SUCH...CHANCES FOR DECENT RAINFALL ARE NOT VERY
HIGH. QPF WILL BE LOW...MOSTLY LESS THAN ONE TENTH OF AN INCH...
WHERE IT DOES RAIN. WE WILL KEEP POP TRENDS MORE OR LESS AS IS AND
CALL FOR SLIGHT CHANCES FOR RAIN SHOWERS ON FRIDAY ACROSS SOUTH
CENTRAL AZ...WITH POPS IN THE GREATER PHOENIX AREA BETWEEN 10 AND 15
PERCENT. SLIGHTLY HIGHER POPS ARE EXPECTED IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN
AREAS TO THE EAST OF PHOENIX...EVEN THOUGH THE BEST DYNAMICS WILL
TRACK TO THE SOUTH OF GILA COUNTY. GIVEN THE HIGH AMOUNTS OF
MID/HIGH CLOUDS MOVING THRU ON FRIDAY...HIGH TEMPS WILL FALL OFF
SEVERAL DEGREES WITH THE COOLER CENTRAL DESERTS LOWERING INTO THE
UPPER 60S.

THE LOW IS FORECAST TO DIVE QUICKLY TO THE SOUTHEAST AND EXIT THE
STATE OVERNIGHT FRIDAY NIGHT LEAVING BEHIND COOL...DRY SUBSIDENT
NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT...FOR MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES ON SATURDAY. WE EXPECT
LITTLE CHANGE IN HIGH TEMPS SATURDAY ESPECIALLY ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL
AZ WHERE READINGS WILL STAY SLIGHTLY BELOW SEASONAL NORMALS...AND
AROUND 70 DEGREES.

AS THE UPPER RIDGE JUST OFF THE WEST COAST STARTS TO AMPLIFY
SUNDAY...ANOTHER SHORT WAVE WILL RIDE DOWN THE FRONT SIDE AND BRUSH
BY TO OUR NORTHEAST...MAINLY MOVING THROUGH THE CORNERS AREA. THIS
WILL BRING NO PRECIP TO OUR AREA...AND LITTLE IN TERMS OF CLOUD
COVER. IT WILL HOWEVER BRING ANOTHER SHOT OF COOLER AIR...WHICH WILL
LEAD TO HIGH TEMPS ON MONDAY DROPPING A FEW DEGREES. THE CENTRAL
DESERTS WILL LIKELY FALL OFF A FEW DEGREES AND INTO THE MID TO UPPER
60S FOR THE MOST PART UNDER MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES.

DRY NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL BUILD INTO THE AREA FROM THE WEST
TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY FOR A SLOW WARMING TREND. HIGH TEMPS WILL
CLIMB TO NEAR OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL BY WEDNESDAY AS SKIES REMAIN
MOSTLY SUNNY OR SUNNY.

&&

.AVIATION...
SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA INCLUDING KPHX...KIWA...AND KSDL...SOUTHEAST
CALIFORNIA AND SOUTHWEST ARIZONA...INCLUDING KIPL AND KBLH...

LITTLE CHANGE IS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS WITH CONTINUED
LIGHT WINDS AND CLEAR TO MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES THROUGH THURSDAY
MORNING. WILL SEE AN INCREASE IN MID AND HIGH CLOUDS STARTING
THURSDAY EVENING AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING PACIFIC LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM.

AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDED TAFS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...
THE STORM TRACK WILL BEGIN TO MOVE SOUTH THIS PERIOD ACROSS PARTS OF
ARIZONA. ONE RELATIVELY COOL AND BREEZY PACIFIC WEATHER SYSTEM WILL
MOVE INTO THE REGION FRIDAY. WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED IN
THE 10 TO 18 MPH RANGE FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING...WITH A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF SHOWERS FROM PHOENIX EAST INTO SOUTHERN GILA COUNTY.

ANOTHER WEATHER SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS NORTHERN ARIZONA
SUNDAY AND MONDAY. ALTHOUGH THESE SYSTEMS WILL BE DRY FOR SOUTHERN
ARIZONA...BREEZY TO WINDY NORTH TO NORTHEAST WINDS WILL DEVELOP
SUNDAY AND MONDAY...PARTICULARLY DOWN THE COLORADO RIVER VALLEY WITH
GUSTS TO 35 MPH POSSIBLE DURING THE AFTERNOONS.

MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITIES WILL RANGE FROM 25 TO 35 PERCENT...
FALLING DRAMATICALLY INTO THE TEENS MONDAY AND TUESDAY.

&&

.PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

AZ...NONE.

CA...NONE.

&&

$$

VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/PHOENIX

DISCUSSION...CB
AVIATION...KUHLMAN
FIRE WEATHER...VASQUEZ












000
FXUS65 KFGZ 200356
AFDFGZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ
856 PM MST WED NOV 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK DISTURBANCE WILL CONTINUE TO BRUSH NORTHERN ARIZONA THIS
EVENING WITH PERIODS OF CLOUDINESS. A COUPLE OF STRONGER
DISTURBANCES WILL MOVE ACROSS THE NORTHLAND FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY
BRINGING RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS TO PORTIONS OF NORTHERN ARIZONA.
THE SYSTEM ON FRIDAY MAY BRING SOME LIGHT SNOWFALL AMOUNTS DOWN TO
AROUND THE 6500 FOOT LEVEL.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
CURRENT FORECAST LOOKS ON TRACK. NO MAJOR UPDATES PLANNED THIS
EVENING.

&&

.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION /315 PM MST/...
A WEAK TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE ACROSS NORTHERN ARIZONA THIS
EVENING AS THE RIDGE THAT HAS BEEN OVER THE STATE SHIFTS EAST.
MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS SHOULD MOVE OUT OF THE AREA LATE THIS
EVENING WITH A FEW VIRGA SHOWERS POSSIBLE. A WEAK RIDGE WILL MOVE
OVER ARIZONA ON THURSDAY WITH CLEARING SKIES.

A WEAKENING TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST ACROSS
WESTERN ARIZONA ON FRIDAY. THIS WILL BRING THE BEST CHANCE OF
LIGHT SHOWERS AND HIGHER ELEVATION SNOW SHOWERS FROM THE KAIBAB
PLATEAU...MOGOLLON RIM...TO THE WHITE MOUNTAINS. AREAS NORTHEAST
OF THE MOGOLLON RIM WILL JUST HAVE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS.
COLDER AIR WILL DROP THE SNOW LEVEL DOWN TO BETWEEN 6000 AND 7000
FEET...WITH LIGHT SNOW ACCUMULATION POSSIBLE ABOVE 6500 FEET. ON
SATURDAY...A SHORT LIVED UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE
REGION...BRINGING DRY CONDITIONS AND NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES.
ANOTHER WEATHER SYSTEM TO OUR NORTH WILL SEND A DRY COLD FRONT
SOUTHWARD ACROSS ARIZONA SUNDAY AND MONDAY. THIS WILL BRING ONLY A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS TO MAINLY FAR NORTHERN ARIZONA ON SUNDAY.
BREEZY NORTH TO NORTHEAST WINDS AND HIGH TEMPERATURES 4-6 DEGREES
BELOW NORMAL ARE EXPECTED SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY.

TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY OF NEXT WEEK...A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BRING DRY CONDITIONS AND WARMING DAYTIME TEMPERATURES...WITH
HIGH TEMPERATURES RETURNING CLOSE TO NORMAL VALUES BY WEDNESDAY.
NORTH TO NORTHEAST BREEZES ARE FORECAST MAINLY FROM THE MOGOLLON
RIM SOUTHWARD.

&&

.AVIATION...
FOR THE 06Z PACKAGE...VFR CONDITIONS UNDER PERIODIC MID AND UPPER
LEVEL CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. WINDS
VARIABLE OVERNIGHT...THEN LIGHT W-SW AFTER 18Z THURSDAY.
PRESCRIBED BURNING ACTIVITY IN THE FORESTS MAY LEAD TO LOCALIZED
SPOTS OF REDUCED VISIBILITY IN SETTLING SMOKE DURING THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS. AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDMENTS.

&&

.FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC.........KD/MAS
AVIATION.......KD

FOR NORTHERN ARIZONA WEATHER INFORMATION VISIT
WEATHER.GOV/FLAGSTAFF








000
FXUS65 KFGZ 200356
AFDFGZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ
856 PM MST WED NOV 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK DISTURBANCE WILL CONTINUE TO BRUSH NORTHERN ARIZONA THIS
EVENING WITH PERIODS OF CLOUDINESS. A COUPLE OF STRONGER
DISTURBANCES WILL MOVE ACROSS THE NORTHLAND FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY
BRINGING RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS TO PORTIONS OF NORTHERN ARIZONA.
THE SYSTEM ON FRIDAY MAY BRING SOME LIGHT SNOWFALL AMOUNTS DOWN TO
AROUND THE 6500 FOOT LEVEL.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
CURRENT FORECAST LOOKS ON TRACK. NO MAJOR UPDATES PLANNED THIS
EVENING.

&&

.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION /315 PM MST/...
A WEAK TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE ACROSS NORTHERN ARIZONA THIS
EVENING AS THE RIDGE THAT HAS BEEN OVER THE STATE SHIFTS EAST.
MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS SHOULD MOVE OUT OF THE AREA LATE THIS
EVENING WITH A FEW VIRGA SHOWERS POSSIBLE. A WEAK RIDGE WILL MOVE
OVER ARIZONA ON THURSDAY WITH CLEARING SKIES.

A WEAKENING TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST ACROSS
WESTERN ARIZONA ON FRIDAY. THIS WILL BRING THE BEST CHANCE OF
LIGHT SHOWERS AND HIGHER ELEVATION SNOW SHOWERS FROM THE KAIBAB
PLATEAU...MOGOLLON RIM...TO THE WHITE MOUNTAINS. AREAS NORTHEAST
OF THE MOGOLLON RIM WILL JUST HAVE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS.
COLDER AIR WILL DROP THE SNOW LEVEL DOWN TO BETWEEN 6000 AND 7000
FEET...WITH LIGHT SNOW ACCUMULATION POSSIBLE ABOVE 6500 FEET. ON
SATURDAY...A SHORT LIVED UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE
REGION...BRINGING DRY CONDITIONS AND NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES.
ANOTHER WEATHER SYSTEM TO OUR NORTH WILL SEND A DRY COLD FRONT
SOUTHWARD ACROSS ARIZONA SUNDAY AND MONDAY. THIS WILL BRING ONLY A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS TO MAINLY FAR NORTHERN ARIZONA ON SUNDAY.
BREEZY NORTH TO NORTHEAST WINDS AND HIGH TEMPERATURES 4-6 DEGREES
BELOW NORMAL ARE EXPECTED SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY.

TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY OF NEXT WEEK...A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BRING DRY CONDITIONS AND WARMING DAYTIME TEMPERATURES...WITH
HIGH TEMPERATURES RETURNING CLOSE TO NORMAL VALUES BY WEDNESDAY.
NORTH TO NORTHEAST BREEZES ARE FORECAST MAINLY FROM THE MOGOLLON
RIM SOUTHWARD.

&&

.AVIATION...
FOR THE 06Z PACKAGE...VFR CONDITIONS UNDER PERIODIC MID AND UPPER
LEVEL CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. WINDS
VARIABLE OVERNIGHT...THEN LIGHT W-SW AFTER 18Z THURSDAY.
PRESCRIBED BURNING ACTIVITY IN THE FORESTS MAY LEAD TO LOCALIZED
SPOTS OF REDUCED VISIBILITY IN SETTLING SMOKE DURING THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS. AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDMENTS.

&&

.FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC.........KD/MAS
AVIATION.......KD

FOR NORTHERN ARIZONA WEATHER INFORMATION VISIT
WEATHER.GOV/FLAGSTAFF









000
FXUS65 KFGZ 200356
AFDFGZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ
856 PM MST WED NOV 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK DISTURBANCE WILL CONTINUE TO BRUSH NORTHERN ARIZONA THIS
EVENING WITH PERIODS OF CLOUDINESS. A COUPLE OF STRONGER
DISTURBANCES WILL MOVE ACROSS THE NORTHLAND FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY
BRINGING RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS TO PORTIONS OF NORTHERN ARIZONA.
THE SYSTEM ON FRIDAY MAY BRING SOME LIGHT SNOWFALL AMOUNTS DOWN TO
AROUND THE 6500 FOOT LEVEL.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
CURRENT FORECAST LOOKS ON TRACK. NO MAJOR UPDATES PLANNED THIS
EVENING.

&&

.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION /315 PM MST/...
A WEAK TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE ACROSS NORTHERN ARIZONA THIS
EVENING AS THE RIDGE THAT HAS BEEN OVER THE STATE SHIFTS EAST.
MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS SHOULD MOVE OUT OF THE AREA LATE THIS
EVENING WITH A FEW VIRGA SHOWERS POSSIBLE. A WEAK RIDGE WILL MOVE
OVER ARIZONA ON THURSDAY WITH CLEARING SKIES.

A WEAKENING TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST ACROSS
WESTERN ARIZONA ON FRIDAY. THIS WILL BRING THE BEST CHANCE OF
LIGHT SHOWERS AND HIGHER ELEVATION SNOW SHOWERS FROM THE KAIBAB
PLATEAU...MOGOLLON RIM...TO THE WHITE MOUNTAINS. AREAS NORTHEAST
OF THE MOGOLLON RIM WILL JUST HAVE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS.
COLDER AIR WILL DROP THE SNOW LEVEL DOWN TO BETWEEN 6000 AND 7000
FEET...WITH LIGHT SNOW ACCUMULATION POSSIBLE ABOVE 6500 FEET. ON
SATURDAY...A SHORT LIVED UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE
REGION...BRINGING DRY CONDITIONS AND NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES.
ANOTHER WEATHER SYSTEM TO OUR NORTH WILL SEND A DRY COLD FRONT
SOUTHWARD ACROSS ARIZONA SUNDAY AND MONDAY. THIS WILL BRING ONLY A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS TO MAINLY FAR NORTHERN ARIZONA ON SUNDAY.
BREEZY NORTH TO NORTHEAST WINDS AND HIGH TEMPERATURES 4-6 DEGREES
BELOW NORMAL ARE EXPECTED SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY.

TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY OF NEXT WEEK...A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BRING DRY CONDITIONS AND WARMING DAYTIME TEMPERATURES...WITH
HIGH TEMPERATURES RETURNING CLOSE TO NORMAL VALUES BY WEDNESDAY.
NORTH TO NORTHEAST BREEZES ARE FORECAST MAINLY FROM THE MOGOLLON
RIM SOUTHWARD.

&&

.AVIATION...
FOR THE 06Z PACKAGE...VFR CONDITIONS UNDER PERIODIC MID AND UPPER
LEVEL CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. WINDS
VARIABLE OVERNIGHT...THEN LIGHT W-SW AFTER 18Z THURSDAY.
PRESCRIBED BURNING ACTIVITY IN THE FORESTS MAY LEAD TO LOCALIZED
SPOTS OF REDUCED VISIBILITY IN SETTLING SMOKE DURING THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS. AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDMENTS.

&&

.FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC.........KD/MAS
AVIATION.......KD

FOR NORTHERN ARIZONA WEATHER INFORMATION VISIT
WEATHER.GOV/FLAGSTAFF









000
FXUS65 KFGZ 200356
AFDFGZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ
856 PM MST WED NOV 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK DISTURBANCE WILL CONTINUE TO BRUSH NORTHERN ARIZONA THIS
EVENING WITH PERIODS OF CLOUDINESS. A COUPLE OF STRONGER
DISTURBANCES WILL MOVE ACROSS THE NORTHLAND FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY
BRINGING RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS TO PORTIONS OF NORTHERN ARIZONA.
THE SYSTEM ON FRIDAY MAY BRING SOME LIGHT SNOWFALL AMOUNTS DOWN TO
AROUND THE 6500 FOOT LEVEL.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
CURRENT FORECAST LOOKS ON TRACK. NO MAJOR UPDATES PLANNED THIS
EVENING.

&&

.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION /315 PM MST/...
A WEAK TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE ACROSS NORTHERN ARIZONA THIS
EVENING AS THE RIDGE THAT HAS BEEN OVER THE STATE SHIFTS EAST.
MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS SHOULD MOVE OUT OF THE AREA LATE THIS
EVENING WITH A FEW VIRGA SHOWERS POSSIBLE. A WEAK RIDGE WILL MOVE
OVER ARIZONA ON THURSDAY WITH CLEARING SKIES.

A WEAKENING TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST ACROSS
WESTERN ARIZONA ON FRIDAY. THIS WILL BRING THE BEST CHANCE OF
LIGHT SHOWERS AND HIGHER ELEVATION SNOW SHOWERS FROM THE KAIBAB
PLATEAU...MOGOLLON RIM...TO THE WHITE MOUNTAINS. AREAS NORTHEAST
OF THE MOGOLLON RIM WILL JUST HAVE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS.
COLDER AIR WILL DROP THE SNOW LEVEL DOWN TO BETWEEN 6000 AND 7000
FEET...WITH LIGHT SNOW ACCUMULATION POSSIBLE ABOVE 6500 FEET. ON
SATURDAY...A SHORT LIVED UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE
REGION...BRINGING DRY CONDITIONS AND NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES.
ANOTHER WEATHER SYSTEM TO OUR NORTH WILL SEND A DRY COLD FRONT
SOUTHWARD ACROSS ARIZONA SUNDAY AND MONDAY. THIS WILL BRING ONLY A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS TO MAINLY FAR NORTHERN ARIZONA ON SUNDAY.
BREEZY NORTH TO NORTHEAST WINDS AND HIGH TEMPERATURES 4-6 DEGREES
BELOW NORMAL ARE EXPECTED SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY.

TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY OF NEXT WEEK...A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BRING DRY CONDITIONS AND WARMING DAYTIME TEMPERATURES...WITH
HIGH TEMPERATURES RETURNING CLOSE TO NORMAL VALUES BY WEDNESDAY.
NORTH TO NORTHEAST BREEZES ARE FORECAST MAINLY FROM THE MOGOLLON
RIM SOUTHWARD.

&&

.AVIATION...
FOR THE 06Z PACKAGE...VFR CONDITIONS UNDER PERIODIC MID AND UPPER
LEVEL CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. WINDS
VARIABLE OVERNIGHT...THEN LIGHT W-SW AFTER 18Z THURSDAY.
PRESCRIBED BURNING ACTIVITY IN THE FORESTS MAY LEAD TO LOCALIZED
SPOTS OF REDUCED VISIBILITY IN SETTLING SMOKE DURING THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS. AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDMENTS.

&&

.FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC.........KD/MAS
AVIATION.......KD

FOR NORTHERN ARIZONA WEATHER INFORMATION VISIT
WEATHER.GOV/FLAGSTAFF









000
FXUS65 KFGZ 200356
AFDFGZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ
856 PM MST WED NOV 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK DISTURBANCE WILL CONTINUE TO BRUSH NORTHERN ARIZONA THIS
EVENING WITH PERIODS OF CLOUDINESS. A COUPLE OF STRONGER
DISTURBANCES WILL MOVE ACROSS THE NORTHLAND FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY
BRINGING RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS TO PORTIONS OF NORTHERN ARIZONA.
THE SYSTEM ON FRIDAY MAY BRING SOME LIGHT SNOWFALL AMOUNTS DOWN TO
AROUND THE 6500 FOOT LEVEL.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
CURRENT FORECAST LOOKS ON TRACK. NO MAJOR UPDATES PLANNED THIS
EVENING.

&&

.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION /315 PM MST/...
A WEAK TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE ACROSS NORTHERN ARIZONA THIS
EVENING AS THE RIDGE THAT HAS BEEN OVER THE STATE SHIFTS EAST.
MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS SHOULD MOVE OUT OF THE AREA LATE THIS
EVENING WITH A FEW VIRGA SHOWERS POSSIBLE. A WEAK RIDGE WILL MOVE
OVER ARIZONA ON THURSDAY WITH CLEARING SKIES.

A WEAKENING TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST ACROSS
WESTERN ARIZONA ON FRIDAY. THIS WILL BRING THE BEST CHANCE OF
LIGHT SHOWERS AND HIGHER ELEVATION SNOW SHOWERS FROM THE KAIBAB
PLATEAU...MOGOLLON RIM...TO THE WHITE MOUNTAINS. AREAS NORTHEAST
OF THE MOGOLLON RIM WILL JUST HAVE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS.
COLDER AIR WILL DROP THE SNOW LEVEL DOWN TO BETWEEN 6000 AND 7000
FEET...WITH LIGHT SNOW ACCUMULATION POSSIBLE ABOVE 6500 FEET. ON
SATURDAY...A SHORT LIVED UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE
REGION...BRINGING DRY CONDITIONS AND NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES.
ANOTHER WEATHER SYSTEM TO OUR NORTH WILL SEND A DRY COLD FRONT
SOUTHWARD ACROSS ARIZONA SUNDAY AND MONDAY. THIS WILL BRING ONLY A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS TO MAINLY FAR NORTHERN ARIZONA ON SUNDAY.
BREEZY NORTH TO NORTHEAST WINDS AND HIGH TEMPERATURES 4-6 DEGREES
BELOW NORMAL ARE EXPECTED SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY.

TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY OF NEXT WEEK...A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BRING DRY CONDITIONS AND WARMING DAYTIME TEMPERATURES...WITH
HIGH TEMPERATURES RETURNING CLOSE TO NORMAL VALUES BY WEDNESDAY.
NORTH TO NORTHEAST BREEZES ARE FORECAST MAINLY FROM THE MOGOLLON
RIM SOUTHWARD.

&&

.AVIATION...
FOR THE 06Z PACKAGE...VFR CONDITIONS UNDER PERIODIC MID AND UPPER
LEVEL CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. WINDS
VARIABLE OVERNIGHT...THEN LIGHT W-SW AFTER 18Z THURSDAY.
PRESCRIBED BURNING ACTIVITY IN THE FORESTS MAY LEAD TO LOCALIZED
SPOTS OF REDUCED VISIBILITY IN SETTLING SMOKE DURING THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS. AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDMENTS.

&&

.FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC.........KD/MAS
AVIATION.......KD

FOR NORTHERN ARIZONA WEATHER INFORMATION VISIT
WEATHER.GOV/FLAGSTAFF









000
FXUS65 KFGZ 200356
AFDFGZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ
856 PM MST WED NOV 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK DISTURBANCE WILL CONTINUE TO BRUSH NORTHERN ARIZONA THIS
EVENING WITH PERIODS OF CLOUDINESS. A COUPLE OF STRONGER
DISTURBANCES WILL MOVE ACROSS THE NORTHLAND FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY
BRINGING RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS TO PORTIONS OF NORTHERN ARIZONA.
THE SYSTEM ON FRIDAY MAY BRING SOME LIGHT SNOWFALL AMOUNTS DOWN TO
AROUND THE 6500 FOOT LEVEL.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
CURRENT FORECAST LOOKS ON TRACK. NO MAJOR UPDATES PLANNED THIS
EVENING.

&&

.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION /315 PM MST/...
A WEAK TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE ACROSS NORTHERN ARIZONA THIS
EVENING AS THE RIDGE THAT HAS BEEN OVER THE STATE SHIFTS EAST.
MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS SHOULD MOVE OUT OF THE AREA LATE THIS
EVENING WITH A FEW VIRGA SHOWERS POSSIBLE. A WEAK RIDGE WILL MOVE
OVER ARIZONA ON THURSDAY WITH CLEARING SKIES.

A WEAKENING TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST ACROSS
WESTERN ARIZONA ON FRIDAY. THIS WILL BRING THE BEST CHANCE OF
LIGHT SHOWERS AND HIGHER ELEVATION SNOW SHOWERS FROM THE KAIBAB
PLATEAU...MOGOLLON RIM...TO THE WHITE MOUNTAINS. AREAS NORTHEAST
OF THE MOGOLLON RIM WILL JUST HAVE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS.
COLDER AIR WILL DROP THE SNOW LEVEL DOWN TO BETWEEN 6000 AND 7000
FEET...WITH LIGHT SNOW ACCUMULATION POSSIBLE ABOVE 6500 FEET. ON
SATURDAY...A SHORT LIVED UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE
REGION...BRINGING DRY CONDITIONS AND NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES.
ANOTHER WEATHER SYSTEM TO OUR NORTH WILL SEND A DRY COLD FRONT
SOUTHWARD ACROSS ARIZONA SUNDAY AND MONDAY. THIS WILL BRING ONLY A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS TO MAINLY FAR NORTHERN ARIZONA ON SUNDAY.
BREEZY NORTH TO NORTHEAST WINDS AND HIGH TEMPERATURES 4-6 DEGREES
BELOW NORMAL ARE EXPECTED SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY.

TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY OF NEXT WEEK...A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BRING DRY CONDITIONS AND WARMING DAYTIME TEMPERATURES...WITH
HIGH TEMPERATURES RETURNING CLOSE TO NORMAL VALUES BY WEDNESDAY.
NORTH TO NORTHEAST BREEZES ARE FORECAST MAINLY FROM THE MOGOLLON
RIM SOUTHWARD.

&&

.AVIATION...
FOR THE 06Z PACKAGE...VFR CONDITIONS UNDER PERIODIC MID AND UPPER
LEVEL CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. WINDS
VARIABLE OVERNIGHT...THEN LIGHT W-SW AFTER 18Z THURSDAY.
PRESCRIBED BURNING ACTIVITY IN THE FORESTS MAY LEAD TO LOCALIZED
SPOTS OF REDUCED VISIBILITY IN SETTLING SMOKE DURING THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS. AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDMENTS.

&&

.FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC.........KD/MAS
AVIATION.......KD

FOR NORTHERN ARIZONA WEATHER INFORMATION VISIT
WEATHER.GOV/FLAGSTAFF









000
FXUS65 KPSR 200340
AFDPSR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PHOENIX AZ
840 PM MST WED NOV 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A BRIEF PERIOD OF SUNNY SKIES IS EXPECTED THURSDAY BEFORE CONDITIONS
QUICKLY CHANGE AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH THE DESERT
SOUTHWEST THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. THE SYSTEM WILL BRING
CLOUDY SKIES AND COOLER TEMPERATURES ALONG WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
SHOWERS. DRY CONDITIONS WITH BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN
PLACE OVER THE WEEKEND AND LINGER INTO NEXT WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
SKIES HAVE CLEARED OVER A GOOD PORTION OF THE AREA WITH THE
EXCEPTION OF A PATCH OF HIGH CLOUDS ACROSS CENTRAL AND NORTHERN
ARIZONA. HAVE TWEAKED SKY COVER THROUGH THE REST OF THE NIGHT TO
SHOW THE MAINLY CLEAR SKIES FOLLOWED BY INCREASING CLOUDS AFTER
SUNRISE THURSDAY. THE REST OF THE FORECAST LOOKS TO BE IN GOOD SHAPE
AS THE RIDGE AXIS SHIFTS EASTWARD INTO NEW MEXICO TONIGHT FOLLOWED
BY INCREASING CLOUDS FOR THURSDAY AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING SHORTWAVE
TROUGH CURRENTLY LOCATED OFF THE NORTHERN CALIFORNIA COAST.

&&

.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
TONIGHT AND THURSDAY...A SHORTWAVE TROUGH CONTINUES TO MOVE THROUGH
THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON...MOST OF THE HIGH LEVEL CLOUDINESS HAS
ALREADY MOVED INTO EASTERN AND NORTHERN ARIZONA. THIS WAVE WILL
CONTINUE TO WEAKEN AND DAMPEN OUT OVERNIGHT...LEAVING MOSTLY CLEAR
SKIES IN ITS WAKE OVER OUR FORECAST AREA OVERNIGHT. WITH THE DRY
SURFACE/ATMOSPHERIC CONDITIONS AND LIGHT WINDS...LOW TEMPS TOMORROW
MORNING WILL ONCE AGAIN COOL DOWN INTO THE 40S ACROSS THE LOWER
DESERT ELEVATIONS. SKIES WILL START OUT MOSTLY SUNNY THURSDAY...BUT
ANOTHER MORE POTENT EASTERN PACIFIC LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE
INTO THE DESERT SOUTHWEST THURSDAY NIGHT...BRING MORE SUBSTANTIAL
CLOUD COVER AND SLIGHT CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION TO THE REGION
THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT.

FRIDAY...MODELS AGREE THAT MOISTURE WITH THIS NEXT UPPER LOW WILL
MAINLY BE AT AND ABOVE 700MB OVER OUR FORECAST AREA...BETTER OVER
FGZ AND VEF CWA. HOWEVER...A NICE BULLS-EYE OF DYNAMICAL FORCING PER
DIV Q FIELD MOVES THROUGH...NOT MUCH IN THE WAY OF FRONTAL LIFT. SO
THERE WILL BE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF PRECIP FROM WEST TO EAST LATE
THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH LATE FRIDAY NIGHT. MODELS ALSO DEPICT A SMALL
BATCH OF NEGATIVE LIFTED INDEX VALUES WITH THE UPPER LOW CENTER...
MAINLY OVER SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA AND SOUTHWEST ARIZONA. MOISTURE
LOOKING TOO LIMITED TO MENTION THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL. SNOW LEVELS
STAY ABOVE 6000 FEET. TEMPERATURES WILL DECLINE FRIDAY BUT NOT
DRAMATICALLY AS THERE IS A LACK OF STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION AT THE
LOWER LEVELS. HOWEVER...NUDGED THE FORECAST HIGHS DOWN SLIGHTLY MORE
AS MODELS ARE TRENDING A BIT DEEPER WITH THE SYSTEM AND BIAS
CORRECTED GUIDANCE LOOKS TO BE TOO WARM. BREEZY TO WINDY CONDITIONS
CAN BE EXPECTED WAS WELL...MAINLY OVER SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA AND
SOUTHWEST ARIZONA. WINDS NOT LOOKING AS STRONG AS THIS PAST SUNDAY.

SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...
DRY NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT TAKES SHAPE THIS WEEKEND. TEMPS DONT BOUNCE
BACK UP AS TROUGHING REDEVELOPS OVER THE INTERIOR WEST AND A DRY
COOL FRONT MOVES THROUGH SUNDAY. ONLY MINOR COOL AIR ADVECTION BUT
ANOTHER ROUND OF NORTHERLY BREEZINESS DEVELOPS OVER SOUTHEAST
CALIFORNIA AND SOUTHWEST ARIZONA.

MONDAY AND TUESDAY...
PACIFIC RIDGING SLOWLY EXPANDS EASTWARD MONDAY AND TUESDAY WITH ONLY
SUBTLE WARMING AT THE SURFACE BY TUESDAY. A SURFACE HIGH TRACKS
ACROSS THE GREAT BASIN FOR NORTH AND NORTHEAST BREEZINESS AT TIMES.
MAY BE ENOUGH TO KEEP MIXING GOING JUST ENOUGH OVERNIGHT TO KEEP MIN
TEMPS A BIT HIGHER THAN THEY MIGHT OTHERWISE BE.

&&

.AVIATION...
SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA INCLUDING KPHX...KIWA...AND KSDL...SOUTHEAST
CALIFORNIA AND SOUTHWEST ARIZONA...INCLUDING KIPL AND KBLH...

LITTLE CHANGE IS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS WITH CONTINUED
LIGHT WINDS AND CLEAR TO MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES THROUGH THURSDAY
MORNING. WILL SEE AN INCREASE IN MID AND HIGH CLOUDS STARTING
THURSDAY EVENING AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING PACIFIC LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM.

AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDED TAFS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...
THE STORM TRACK WILL BEGIN TO MOVE SOUTH THIS PERIOD ACROSS PARTS OF
ARIZONA. ONE RELATIVELY COOL AND BREEZY PACIFIC WEATHER SYSTEM WILL
MOVE INTO THE REGION FRIDAY. WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED IN
THE 10 TO 18 MPH RANGE FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING...WITH A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF SHOWERS FROM PHOENIX EAST INTO SOUTHERN GILA COUNTY.

ANOTHER WEATHER SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS NORTHERN ARIZONA
SUNDAY AND MONDAY. ALTHOUGH THESE SYSTEMS WILL BE DRY FOR SOUTHERN
ARIZONA...BREEZY TO WINDY NORTH TO NORTHEAST WINDS WILL DEVELOP
SUNDAY AND MONDAY...PARTICULARLY DOWN THE COLORADO RIVER VALLEY WITH
GUSTS TO 35 MPH POSSIBLE DURING THE AFTERNOONS.

MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITIES WILL RANGE FROM 25 TO 35 PERCENT...
FALLING DRAMATICALLY INTO THE TEENS MONDAY AND TUESDAY.

&&

.PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

AZ...NONE.

CA...NONE.

&&

$$

VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/PHOENIX

DISCUSSION...KUHLMAN
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...MEYERS/AJ
AVIATION...KUHLMAN
FIRE WEATHER...VASQUEZ








000
FXUS65 KPSR 200340
AFDPSR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PHOENIX AZ
840 PM MST WED NOV 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A BRIEF PERIOD OF SUNNY SKIES IS EXPECTED THURSDAY BEFORE CONDITIONS
QUICKLY CHANGE AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH THE DESERT
SOUTHWEST THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. THE SYSTEM WILL BRING
CLOUDY SKIES AND COOLER TEMPERATURES ALONG WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
SHOWERS. DRY CONDITIONS WITH BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN
PLACE OVER THE WEEKEND AND LINGER INTO NEXT WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
SKIES HAVE CLEARED OVER A GOOD PORTION OF THE AREA WITH THE
EXCEPTION OF A PATCH OF HIGH CLOUDS ACROSS CENTRAL AND NORTHERN
ARIZONA. HAVE TWEAKED SKY COVER THROUGH THE REST OF THE NIGHT TO
SHOW THE MAINLY CLEAR SKIES FOLLOWED BY INCREASING CLOUDS AFTER
SUNRISE THURSDAY. THE REST OF THE FORECAST LOOKS TO BE IN GOOD SHAPE
AS THE RIDGE AXIS SHIFTS EASTWARD INTO NEW MEXICO TONIGHT FOLLOWED
BY INCREASING CLOUDS FOR THURSDAY AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING SHORTWAVE
TROUGH CURRENTLY LOCATED OFF THE NORTHERN CALIFORNIA COAST.

&&

.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
TONIGHT AND THURSDAY...A SHORTWAVE TROUGH CONTINUES TO MOVE THROUGH
THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON...MOST OF THE HIGH LEVEL CLOUDINESS HAS
ALREADY MOVED INTO EASTERN AND NORTHERN ARIZONA. THIS WAVE WILL
CONTINUE TO WEAKEN AND DAMPEN OUT OVERNIGHT...LEAVING MOSTLY CLEAR
SKIES IN ITS WAKE OVER OUR FORECAST AREA OVERNIGHT. WITH THE DRY
SURFACE/ATMOSPHERIC CONDITIONS AND LIGHT WINDS...LOW TEMPS TOMORROW
MORNING WILL ONCE AGAIN COOL DOWN INTO THE 40S ACROSS THE LOWER
DESERT ELEVATIONS. SKIES WILL START OUT MOSTLY SUNNY THURSDAY...BUT
ANOTHER MORE POTENT EASTERN PACIFIC LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE
INTO THE DESERT SOUTHWEST THURSDAY NIGHT...BRING MORE SUBSTANTIAL
CLOUD COVER AND SLIGHT CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION TO THE REGION
THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT.

FRIDAY...MODELS AGREE THAT MOISTURE WITH THIS NEXT UPPER LOW WILL
MAINLY BE AT AND ABOVE 700MB OVER OUR FORECAST AREA...BETTER OVER
FGZ AND VEF CWA. HOWEVER...A NICE BULLS-EYE OF DYNAMICAL FORCING PER
DIV Q FIELD MOVES THROUGH...NOT MUCH IN THE WAY OF FRONTAL LIFT. SO
THERE WILL BE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF PRECIP FROM WEST TO EAST LATE
THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH LATE FRIDAY NIGHT. MODELS ALSO DEPICT A SMALL
BATCH OF NEGATIVE LIFTED INDEX VALUES WITH THE UPPER LOW CENTER...
MAINLY OVER SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA AND SOUTHWEST ARIZONA. MOISTURE
LOOKING TOO LIMITED TO MENTION THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL. SNOW LEVELS
STAY ABOVE 6000 FEET. TEMPERATURES WILL DECLINE FRIDAY BUT NOT
DRAMATICALLY AS THERE IS A LACK OF STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION AT THE
LOWER LEVELS. HOWEVER...NUDGED THE FORECAST HIGHS DOWN SLIGHTLY MORE
AS MODELS ARE TRENDING A BIT DEEPER WITH THE SYSTEM AND BIAS
CORRECTED GUIDANCE LOOKS TO BE TOO WARM. BREEZY TO WINDY CONDITIONS
CAN BE EXPECTED WAS WELL...MAINLY OVER SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA AND
SOUTHWEST ARIZONA. WINDS NOT LOOKING AS STRONG AS THIS PAST SUNDAY.

SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...
DRY NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT TAKES SHAPE THIS WEEKEND. TEMPS DONT BOUNCE
BACK UP AS TROUGHING REDEVELOPS OVER THE INTERIOR WEST AND A DRY
COOL FRONT MOVES THROUGH SUNDAY. ONLY MINOR COOL AIR ADVECTION BUT
ANOTHER ROUND OF NORTHERLY BREEZINESS DEVELOPS OVER SOUTHEAST
CALIFORNIA AND SOUTHWEST ARIZONA.

MONDAY AND TUESDAY...
PACIFIC RIDGING SLOWLY EXPANDS EASTWARD MONDAY AND TUESDAY WITH ONLY
SUBTLE WARMING AT THE SURFACE BY TUESDAY. A SURFACE HIGH TRACKS
ACROSS THE GREAT BASIN FOR NORTH AND NORTHEAST BREEZINESS AT TIMES.
MAY BE ENOUGH TO KEEP MIXING GOING JUST ENOUGH OVERNIGHT TO KEEP MIN
TEMPS A BIT HIGHER THAN THEY MIGHT OTHERWISE BE.

&&

.AVIATION...
SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA INCLUDING KPHX...KIWA...AND KSDL...SOUTHEAST
CALIFORNIA AND SOUTHWEST ARIZONA...INCLUDING KIPL AND KBLH...

LITTLE CHANGE IS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS WITH CONTINUED
LIGHT WINDS AND CLEAR TO MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES THROUGH THURSDAY
MORNING. WILL SEE AN INCREASE IN MID AND HIGH CLOUDS STARTING
THURSDAY EVENING AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING PACIFIC LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM.

AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDED TAFS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...
THE STORM TRACK WILL BEGIN TO MOVE SOUTH THIS PERIOD ACROSS PARTS OF
ARIZONA. ONE RELATIVELY COOL AND BREEZY PACIFIC WEATHER SYSTEM WILL
MOVE INTO THE REGION FRIDAY. WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED IN
THE 10 TO 18 MPH RANGE FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING...WITH A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF SHOWERS FROM PHOENIX EAST INTO SOUTHERN GILA COUNTY.

ANOTHER WEATHER SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS NORTHERN ARIZONA
SUNDAY AND MONDAY. ALTHOUGH THESE SYSTEMS WILL BE DRY FOR SOUTHERN
ARIZONA...BREEZY TO WINDY NORTH TO NORTHEAST WINDS WILL DEVELOP
SUNDAY AND MONDAY...PARTICULARLY DOWN THE COLORADO RIVER VALLEY WITH
GUSTS TO 35 MPH POSSIBLE DURING THE AFTERNOONS.

MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITIES WILL RANGE FROM 25 TO 35 PERCENT...
FALLING DRAMATICALLY INTO THE TEENS MONDAY AND TUESDAY.

&&

.PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

AZ...NONE.

CA...NONE.

&&

$$

VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/PHOENIX

DISCUSSION...KUHLMAN
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...MEYERS/AJ
AVIATION...KUHLMAN
FIRE WEATHER...VASQUEZ









000
FXUS65 KPSR 200340
AFDPSR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PHOENIX AZ
840 PM MST WED NOV 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A BRIEF PERIOD OF SUNNY SKIES IS EXPECTED THURSDAY BEFORE CONDITIONS
QUICKLY CHANGE AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH THE DESERT
SOUTHWEST THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. THE SYSTEM WILL BRING
CLOUDY SKIES AND COOLER TEMPERATURES ALONG WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
SHOWERS. DRY CONDITIONS WITH BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN
PLACE OVER THE WEEKEND AND LINGER INTO NEXT WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
SKIES HAVE CLEARED OVER A GOOD PORTION OF THE AREA WITH THE
EXCEPTION OF A PATCH OF HIGH CLOUDS ACROSS CENTRAL AND NORTHERN
ARIZONA. HAVE TWEAKED SKY COVER THROUGH THE REST OF THE NIGHT TO
SHOW THE MAINLY CLEAR SKIES FOLLOWED BY INCREASING CLOUDS AFTER
SUNRISE THURSDAY. THE REST OF THE FORECAST LOOKS TO BE IN GOOD SHAPE
AS THE RIDGE AXIS SHIFTS EASTWARD INTO NEW MEXICO TONIGHT FOLLOWED
BY INCREASING CLOUDS FOR THURSDAY AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING SHORTWAVE
TROUGH CURRENTLY LOCATED OFF THE NORTHERN CALIFORNIA COAST.

&&

.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
TONIGHT AND THURSDAY...A SHORTWAVE TROUGH CONTINUES TO MOVE THROUGH
THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON...MOST OF THE HIGH LEVEL CLOUDINESS HAS
ALREADY MOVED INTO EASTERN AND NORTHERN ARIZONA. THIS WAVE WILL
CONTINUE TO WEAKEN AND DAMPEN OUT OVERNIGHT...LEAVING MOSTLY CLEAR
SKIES IN ITS WAKE OVER OUR FORECAST AREA OVERNIGHT. WITH THE DRY
SURFACE/ATMOSPHERIC CONDITIONS AND LIGHT WINDS...LOW TEMPS TOMORROW
MORNING WILL ONCE AGAIN COOL DOWN INTO THE 40S ACROSS THE LOWER
DESERT ELEVATIONS. SKIES WILL START OUT MOSTLY SUNNY THURSDAY...BUT
ANOTHER MORE POTENT EASTERN PACIFIC LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE
INTO THE DESERT SOUTHWEST THURSDAY NIGHT...BRING MORE SUBSTANTIAL
CLOUD COVER AND SLIGHT CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION TO THE REGION
THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT.

FRIDAY...MODELS AGREE THAT MOISTURE WITH THIS NEXT UPPER LOW WILL
MAINLY BE AT AND ABOVE 700MB OVER OUR FORECAST AREA...BETTER OVER
FGZ AND VEF CWA. HOWEVER...A NICE BULLS-EYE OF DYNAMICAL FORCING PER
DIV Q FIELD MOVES THROUGH...NOT MUCH IN THE WAY OF FRONTAL LIFT. SO
THERE WILL BE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF PRECIP FROM WEST TO EAST LATE
THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH LATE FRIDAY NIGHT. MODELS ALSO DEPICT A SMALL
BATCH OF NEGATIVE LIFTED INDEX VALUES WITH THE UPPER LOW CENTER...
MAINLY OVER SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA AND SOUTHWEST ARIZONA. MOISTURE
LOOKING TOO LIMITED TO MENTION THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL. SNOW LEVELS
STAY ABOVE 6000 FEET. TEMPERATURES WILL DECLINE FRIDAY BUT NOT
DRAMATICALLY AS THERE IS A LACK OF STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION AT THE
LOWER LEVELS. HOWEVER...NUDGED THE FORECAST HIGHS DOWN SLIGHTLY MORE
AS MODELS ARE TRENDING A BIT DEEPER WITH THE SYSTEM AND BIAS
CORRECTED GUIDANCE LOOKS TO BE TOO WARM. BREEZY TO WINDY CONDITIONS
CAN BE EXPECTED WAS WELL...MAINLY OVER SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA AND
SOUTHWEST ARIZONA. WINDS NOT LOOKING AS STRONG AS THIS PAST SUNDAY.

SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...
DRY NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT TAKES SHAPE THIS WEEKEND. TEMPS DONT BOUNCE
BACK UP AS TROUGHING REDEVELOPS OVER THE INTERIOR WEST AND A DRY
COOL FRONT MOVES THROUGH SUNDAY. ONLY MINOR COOL AIR ADVECTION BUT
ANOTHER ROUND OF NORTHERLY BREEZINESS DEVELOPS OVER SOUTHEAST
CALIFORNIA AND SOUTHWEST ARIZONA.

MONDAY AND TUESDAY...
PACIFIC RIDGING SLOWLY EXPANDS EASTWARD MONDAY AND TUESDAY WITH ONLY
SUBTLE WARMING AT THE SURFACE BY TUESDAY. A SURFACE HIGH TRACKS
ACROSS THE GREAT BASIN FOR NORTH AND NORTHEAST BREEZINESS AT TIMES.
MAY BE ENOUGH TO KEEP MIXING GOING JUST ENOUGH OVERNIGHT TO KEEP MIN
TEMPS A BIT HIGHER THAN THEY MIGHT OTHERWISE BE.

&&

.AVIATION...
SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA INCLUDING KPHX...KIWA...AND KSDL...SOUTHEAST
CALIFORNIA AND SOUTHWEST ARIZONA...INCLUDING KIPL AND KBLH...

LITTLE CHANGE IS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS WITH CONTINUED
LIGHT WINDS AND CLEAR TO MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES THROUGH THURSDAY
MORNING. WILL SEE AN INCREASE IN MID AND HIGH CLOUDS STARTING
THURSDAY EVENING AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING PACIFIC LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM.

AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDED TAFS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...
THE STORM TRACK WILL BEGIN TO MOVE SOUTH THIS PERIOD ACROSS PARTS OF
ARIZONA. ONE RELATIVELY COOL AND BREEZY PACIFIC WEATHER SYSTEM WILL
MOVE INTO THE REGION FRIDAY. WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED IN
THE 10 TO 18 MPH RANGE FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING...WITH A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF SHOWERS FROM PHOENIX EAST INTO SOUTHERN GILA COUNTY.

ANOTHER WEATHER SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS NORTHERN ARIZONA
SUNDAY AND MONDAY. ALTHOUGH THESE SYSTEMS WILL BE DRY FOR SOUTHERN
ARIZONA...BREEZY TO WINDY NORTH TO NORTHEAST WINDS WILL DEVELOP
SUNDAY AND MONDAY...PARTICULARLY DOWN THE COLORADO RIVER VALLEY WITH
GUSTS TO 35 MPH POSSIBLE DURING THE AFTERNOONS.

MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITIES WILL RANGE FROM 25 TO 35 PERCENT...
FALLING DRAMATICALLY INTO THE TEENS MONDAY AND TUESDAY.

&&

.PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

AZ...NONE.

CA...NONE.

&&

$$

VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/PHOENIX

DISCUSSION...KUHLMAN
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...MEYERS/AJ
AVIATION...KUHLMAN
FIRE WEATHER...VASQUEZ








000
FXUS65 KTWC 200315
AFDTWC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ
815 PM MST WED NOV 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...DRY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THURSDAY. A LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM MOVING ACROSS THE AREA WILL BRING A CHANCE OF VALLEY RAIN AND
MOUNTAIN SNOW SHOWERS FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. ONLY LIGHT
PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED. DRY CONDITIONS WITH A SLOW
WARMING TREND WILL THEN PREVAIL SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...CURRENT FORECAST LOOKED ON TRACK WITH HIGH CLOUDS
MOVING OUT OF THE AREA LATE THIS EVENING FOR CLEAR SKIES TONIGHT. NO
UPDATES NECESSARY. PLEASE REFER TO THE ADDITIONAL SECTIONS IN THIS
PRODUCT FOR MORE DETAILS.

&&

.AVIATION...VALID THRU 21/06Z.
A FEW TO SCATTERED MAINLY HIGH CLOUDS THIS EVENING WILL GIVE WAY TO
CLEAR SKIES LATER TONIGHT AS A WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE EXITS
THE REGION. MOSTLY CLEAR CONDITIONS WITH PERHAPS A FEW CIRRUS WILL
THEN PREVAIL THROUGH THE DAY THURSDAY. SURFACE WIND GENERALLY LESS
THAN 10 KTS WITH NORMAL DIURNAL PATTERNS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
THURSDAY AFTERNOON. AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR TAF
AMENDMENTS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...DRY CONDITIONS WITH LIGHT TERRAIN DRIVEN WINDS WILL
PREVAIL THROUGH THURSDAY. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BRING ISOLATED
TO SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS WITH PERHAPS A FEW MOUNTAIN SNOW SHOWERS
FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND FRIDAY EVENING. DRY CONDITIONS WILL THEN
CONTINUE THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
PASSING TO THE NORTH OF THE REGION SUNDAY WILL BRING GUSTY WEST TO
NORTHWEST WINDS TO THE AREA. THE UPPER GILA VALLEY MAY SEE WINDS OF
10-15 MPH WITH GUSTS OF 25-30 MPH. SLIGHTLY ELEVATED EASTERLY WINDS
ARE EXPECTED OVERNIGHT MONDAY AND INTO TUESDAY MORNING.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...THE BACK EDGE OF MAINLY HIGH-LEVEL CLOUDS
REPRESENTING A SHORTWAVE TROUGH AXIS EXTENDED FROM SRN NEVADA SEWD
INTO WRN PIMA COUNTY THIS AFTERNOON. THE BULK OF THESE CLOUDS WILL
MOVE EWD INTO NEW MEXICO THIS EVENING. MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES WILL THEN
PREVAIL LATE TONIGHT AND THUR. A STRONGER SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS
PROGGED VIA THE 19/12Z GFS/ECWMF TO BE OVER THE GREAT BASIN/SRN
CALIFORNIA REGION THUR NIGHT. THIS SYSTEM WILL MOVE SEWD ACROSS THE
AREA FRI AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

HAVE NOTED THAT THE GFS/ECMWF HAVE TRENDED SLIGHTLY FURTHER SOUTH
WITH THE PATH OF THE MID-LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION VERSUS PREVIOUS
SOLUTIONS. THE GFS/ECMWF FAVOR LOCALES SOUTH OF TUCSON FOR THE
HIGHEST QPF/S. HOWEVER...THESE AMOUNTS STILL REMAIN MOSTLY LESS THAN
ONE TENTH OF AN INCH. HAVE MADE SOME MINOR MODIFICATIONS TO THE
GRIDDED DATA POP FIELDS FOR FRI AFTERNOON/EVENING TO ACCOUNT FOR
SLIGHTLY BETTER PRECIP CHANCES SOUTH-TO-SOUTHEAST OF TUCSON.

FOR CONTINUITY AND PER COORD WITH NEIGHBORING WFO/S...HAVE
MAINTAINED CHANCE-CATEGORY POPS ACROSS THE WHITE MOUNTAINS. HAVE
OPTED TO DEPICT THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA FRI AFTERNOON WITH A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF SHOWERS. THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS FRI EVENING
FROM TUCSON EWD/SWD. GIVEN THE RAPID PROGRESSION OF THIS SYSTEM AND
THE LACK OF SIGNIFICANT LOWER LEVEL MOISTURE...LIQUID AMOUNTS SHOULD
BE QUITE LIGHT. SNOW LEVELS BY FRI EVENING SHOULD GENERALLY BE NEAR
7000 FEET...AND SNOW ACCUMULATIONS SHOULD BE LIMITED TO ONLY AN INCH
OR SO ACROSS THE HIGHEST PEAKS. DRY CONDITIONS UNDER NWLY FLOW ALOFT
WILL OCCUR LATE FRI NIGHT-SAT NIGHT.

THE NEXT SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL THEN MOVE RAPIDLY SEWD ACROSS THE
CENTRAL ROCKIES SUN. HAVE REMOVED THE PREVIOUS DEPICTION OF A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS SUN ACROSS THE WHITE MOUNTAINS. A TIGHT MID-
LEVEL GRADIENT WILL PRODUCE GUSTY WLY/NWLY WINDS SUN. THE
ORIENTATION OF THE MID-LEVEL GRADIENT FAVORS THE UPPER GILA VALLEY
WITH THE STRONGER WINDS. DRY CONDITIONS WILL THEN OCCUR MON-WED AS
HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT REMAINS CENTERED WEST OF THE SRN CALIFORNIA
COAST NEAR 30N/130W.

HIGH TEMPS THUR WILL BE A FEW DEGS COOLER VERSUS TEMPS ACHIEVED THIS
AFTERNOON. EXPECT AN ADDITIONAL 5 DEGS OR SO OF COOLING FRI FOLLOWED
BY A VERY GRADUAL WARMING TREND SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

&&

.TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...YOUTUBE...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/TUCSON

PREV DISCUSSION...FRANCIS
AVIATION/FIRE WEATHER...FRENCH








000
FXUS65 KTWC 200315
AFDTWC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ
815 PM MST WED NOV 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...DRY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THURSDAY. A LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM MOVING ACROSS THE AREA WILL BRING A CHANCE OF VALLEY RAIN AND
MOUNTAIN SNOW SHOWERS FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. ONLY LIGHT
PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED. DRY CONDITIONS WITH A SLOW
WARMING TREND WILL THEN PREVAIL SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...CURRENT FORECAST LOOKED ON TRACK WITH HIGH CLOUDS
MOVING OUT OF THE AREA LATE THIS EVENING FOR CLEAR SKIES TONIGHT. NO
UPDATES NECESSARY. PLEASE REFER TO THE ADDITIONAL SECTIONS IN THIS
PRODUCT FOR MORE DETAILS.

&&

.AVIATION...VALID THRU 21/06Z.
A FEW TO SCATTERED MAINLY HIGH CLOUDS THIS EVENING WILL GIVE WAY TO
CLEAR SKIES LATER TONIGHT AS A WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE EXITS
THE REGION. MOSTLY CLEAR CONDITIONS WITH PERHAPS A FEW CIRRUS WILL
THEN PREVAIL THROUGH THE DAY THURSDAY. SURFACE WIND GENERALLY LESS
THAN 10 KTS WITH NORMAL DIURNAL PATTERNS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
THURSDAY AFTERNOON. AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR TAF
AMENDMENTS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...DRY CONDITIONS WITH LIGHT TERRAIN DRIVEN WINDS WILL
PREVAIL THROUGH THURSDAY. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BRING ISOLATED
TO SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS WITH PERHAPS A FEW MOUNTAIN SNOW SHOWERS
FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND FRIDAY EVENING. DRY CONDITIONS WILL THEN
CONTINUE THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
PASSING TO THE NORTH OF THE REGION SUNDAY WILL BRING GUSTY WEST TO
NORTHWEST WINDS TO THE AREA. THE UPPER GILA VALLEY MAY SEE WINDS OF
10-15 MPH WITH GUSTS OF 25-30 MPH. SLIGHTLY ELEVATED EASTERLY WINDS
ARE EXPECTED OVERNIGHT MONDAY AND INTO TUESDAY MORNING.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...THE BACK EDGE OF MAINLY HIGH-LEVEL CLOUDS
REPRESENTING A SHORTWAVE TROUGH AXIS EXTENDED FROM SRN NEVADA SEWD
INTO WRN PIMA COUNTY THIS AFTERNOON. THE BULK OF THESE CLOUDS WILL
MOVE EWD INTO NEW MEXICO THIS EVENING. MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES WILL THEN
PREVAIL LATE TONIGHT AND THUR. A STRONGER SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS
PROGGED VIA THE 19/12Z GFS/ECWMF TO BE OVER THE GREAT BASIN/SRN
CALIFORNIA REGION THUR NIGHT. THIS SYSTEM WILL MOVE SEWD ACROSS THE
AREA FRI AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

HAVE NOTED THAT THE GFS/ECMWF HAVE TRENDED SLIGHTLY FURTHER SOUTH
WITH THE PATH OF THE MID-LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION VERSUS PREVIOUS
SOLUTIONS. THE GFS/ECMWF FAVOR LOCALES SOUTH OF TUCSON FOR THE
HIGHEST QPF/S. HOWEVER...THESE AMOUNTS STILL REMAIN MOSTLY LESS THAN
ONE TENTH OF AN INCH. HAVE MADE SOME MINOR MODIFICATIONS TO THE
GRIDDED DATA POP FIELDS FOR FRI AFTERNOON/EVENING TO ACCOUNT FOR
SLIGHTLY BETTER PRECIP CHANCES SOUTH-TO-SOUTHEAST OF TUCSON.

FOR CONTINUITY AND PER COORD WITH NEIGHBORING WFO/S...HAVE
MAINTAINED CHANCE-CATEGORY POPS ACROSS THE WHITE MOUNTAINS. HAVE
OPTED TO DEPICT THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA FRI AFTERNOON WITH A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF SHOWERS. THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS FRI EVENING
FROM TUCSON EWD/SWD. GIVEN THE RAPID PROGRESSION OF THIS SYSTEM AND
THE LACK OF SIGNIFICANT LOWER LEVEL MOISTURE...LIQUID AMOUNTS SHOULD
BE QUITE LIGHT. SNOW LEVELS BY FRI EVENING SHOULD GENERALLY BE NEAR
7000 FEET...AND SNOW ACCUMULATIONS SHOULD BE LIMITED TO ONLY AN INCH
OR SO ACROSS THE HIGHEST PEAKS. DRY CONDITIONS UNDER NWLY FLOW ALOFT
WILL OCCUR LATE FRI NIGHT-SAT NIGHT.

THE NEXT SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL THEN MOVE RAPIDLY SEWD ACROSS THE
CENTRAL ROCKIES SUN. HAVE REMOVED THE PREVIOUS DEPICTION OF A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS SUN ACROSS THE WHITE MOUNTAINS. A TIGHT MID-
LEVEL GRADIENT WILL PRODUCE GUSTY WLY/NWLY WINDS SUN. THE
ORIENTATION OF THE MID-LEVEL GRADIENT FAVORS THE UPPER GILA VALLEY
WITH THE STRONGER WINDS. DRY CONDITIONS WILL THEN OCCUR MON-WED AS
HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT REMAINS CENTERED WEST OF THE SRN CALIFORNIA
COAST NEAR 30N/130W.

HIGH TEMPS THUR WILL BE A FEW DEGS COOLER VERSUS TEMPS ACHIEVED THIS
AFTERNOON. EXPECT AN ADDITIONAL 5 DEGS OR SO OF COOLING FRI FOLLOWED
BY A VERY GRADUAL WARMING TREND SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

&&

.TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...YOUTUBE...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/TUCSON

PREV DISCUSSION...FRANCIS
AVIATION/FIRE WEATHER...FRENCH









000
FXUS65 KFGZ 192214
AFDFGZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ
315 PM MST WED NOV 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK DISTURBANCE WILL CONTINUE TO BRUSH NORTHERN ARIZONA THIS
EVENING WITH MID AND HIGH CLOUDS. A COUPLE OF STRONGER DISTURBANCES
WILL THEN MOVE ACROSS THE NORTHLAND FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY BRINGING
RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS TO PORTIONS OF NORTHERN ARIZONA. THE SYSTEM ON
FRIDAY MAY BRING SOME LIGHT SNOWFALL AMOUNTS DOWN TO AROUND THE 6500
FOOT LEVEL.

&&
.DISCUSSION...A WEAK TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE ACROSS NORTHERN
ARIZONA THIS EVENING AS THE RIDGE THAT HAS BEEN OVER THE STATE
SHIFTS EAST. MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS SHOULD MOVE OUT OF THE AREA
LATE THIS EVENING WITH A FEW VIRGA SHOWERS POSSIBLE. A WEAK
RIDGE WILL MOVE OVER ARIZONA ON THURSDAY WITH CLEARING SKIES.

A WEAKENING TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST ACROSS WESTERN
ARIZONA ON FRIDAY. THIS WILL BRING THE BEST CHANCE OF LIGHT SHOWERS
AND HIGHER ELEVATION SNOW SHOWERS FROM THE KAIBAB PLATEAU...MOGOLLON
RIM...TO THE WHITE MOUNTAINS. AREAS NORTHEAST OF THE MOGOLLON RIM
WILL JUST HAVE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS. COLDER AIR WILL DROP THE
SNOW LEVEL DOWN TO BETWEEN 6000 AND 7000 FEET...WITH LIGHT SNOW
ACCUMULATION POSSIBLE ABOVE 6500 FEET. ON SATURDAY...A SHORT LIVED
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION...BRINGING DRY
CONDITIONS AND NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES. ANOTHER WEATHER SYSTEM TO
OUR NORTH WILL SEND A DRY COLD FRONT SOUTHWARD ACROSS ARIZONA
SUNDAY AND MONDAY. THIS WILL BRING ONLY A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS
TO MAINLY FAR NORTHERN ARIZONA ON SUNDAY. BREEZY NORTH TO NORTHEAST
WINDS AND HIGH TEMPERATURES 4-6 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL ARE EXPECTED
SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY.

TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY OF NEXT WEEK...A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BRING DRY CONDITIONS AND WARMING DAYTIME TEMPERATURES...WITH HIGH
TEMPERATURES RETURNING CLOSE TO NORMAL VALUES BY WEDNESDAY. NORTH TO
NORTHEAST BREEZES ARE FORECAST MAINLY FROM THE MOGOLLON RIM SOUTHWARD
&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 00Z PACKAGE...VFR CONDITIONS UNDER PERIODIC MID
AND UPPER LEVEL CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.
GENERALLY WEST TO SOUTHWEST WINDS 10 KTS OR LESS EXPECTED THROUGH
SUNSET THIS EVENING...THEN AGAIN THURSDAY AFTERNOON.

PRESCRIBED BURNING ACTIVITY IN THE FORESTS MAY LEAD TO LOCALIZED
SPOTS OF REDUCED VISIBILITY IN SETTLING SMOKE DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.
AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDMENTS.

&&

.FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC.........MAS
AVIATION.......MCS

FOR NORTHERN ARIZONA WEATHER INFORMATION VISIT
WEATHER.GOV/FLAGSTAFF

















000
FXUS65 KFGZ 192214
AFDFGZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ
315 PM MST WED NOV 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK DISTURBANCE WILL CONTINUE TO BRUSH NORTHERN ARIZONA THIS
EVENING WITH MID AND HIGH CLOUDS. A COUPLE OF STRONGER DISTURBANCES
WILL THEN MOVE ACROSS THE NORTHLAND FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY BRINGING
RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS TO PORTIONS OF NORTHERN ARIZONA. THE SYSTEM ON
FRIDAY MAY BRING SOME LIGHT SNOWFALL AMOUNTS DOWN TO AROUND THE 6500
FOOT LEVEL.

&&
.DISCUSSION...A WEAK TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE ACROSS NORTHERN
ARIZONA THIS EVENING AS THE RIDGE THAT HAS BEEN OVER THE STATE
SHIFTS EAST. MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS SHOULD MOVE OUT OF THE AREA
LATE THIS EVENING WITH A FEW VIRGA SHOWERS POSSIBLE. A WEAK
RIDGE WILL MOVE OVER ARIZONA ON THURSDAY WITH CLEARING SKIES.

A WEAKENING TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST ACROSS WESTERN
ARIZONA ON FRIDAY. THIS WILL BRING THE BEST CHANCE OF LIGHT SHOWERS
AND HIGHER ELEVATION SNOW SHOWERS FROM THE KAIBAB PLATEAU...MOGOLLON
RIM...TO THE WHITE MOUNTAINS. AREAS NORTHEAST OF THE MOGOLLON RIM
WILL JUST HAVE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS. COLDER AIR WILL DROP THE
SNOW LEVEL DOWN TO BETWEEN 6000 AND 7000 FEET...WITH LIGHT SNOW
ACCUMULATION POSSIBLE ABOVE 6500 FEET. ON SATURDAY...A SHORT LIVED
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION...BRINGING DRY
CONDITIONS AND NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES. ANOTHER WEATHER SYSTEM TO
OUR NORTH WILL SEND A DRY COLD FRONT SOUTHWARD ACROSS ARIZONA
SUNDAY AND MONDAY. THIS WILL BRING ONLY A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS
TO MAINLY FAR NORTHERN ARIZONA ON SUNDAY. BREEZY NORTH TO NORTHEAST
WINDS AND HIGH TEMPERATURES 4-6 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL ARE EXPECTED
SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY.

TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY OF NEXT WEEK...A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BRING DRY CONDITIONS AND WARMING DAYTIME TEMPERATURES...WITH HIGH
TEMPERATURES RETURNING CLOSE TO NORMAL VALUES BY WEDNESDAY. NORTH TO
NORTHEAST BREEZES ARE FORECAST MAINLY FROM THE MOGOLLON RIM SOUTHWARD
&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 00Z PACKAGE...VFR CONDITIONS UNDER PERIODIC MID
AND UPPER LEVEL CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.
GENERALLY WEST TO SOUTHWEST WINDS 10 KTS OR LESS EXPECTED THROUGH
SUNSET THIS EVENING...THEN AGAIN THURSDAY AFTERNOON.

PRESCRIBED BURNING ACTIVITY IN THE FORESTS MAY LEAD TO LOCALIZED
SPOTS OF REDUCED VISIBILITY IN SETTLING SMOKE DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.
AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDMENTS.

&&

.FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC.........MAS
AVIATION.......MCS

FOR NORTHERN ARIZONA WEATHER INFORMATION VISIT
WEATHER.GOV/FLAGSTAFF


















000
FXUS65 KPSR 192205
AFDPSR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PHOENIX AZ
300 PM MST WED NOV 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A BRIEF PERIOD OF SUNNY SKIES IS EXPECTED THURSDAY BEFORE CONDITIONS
QUICKLY CHANGE AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH THE DESERT
SOUTHWEST THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. THE SYSTEM WILL BRING
CLOUDY SKIES AND COOLER TEMPERATURES ALONG WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
SHOWERS. DRY CONDITIONS WITH BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN
PLACE OVER THE WEEKEND AND LINGER INTO NEXT WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
TONIGHT AND THURSDAY...A SHORTWAVE TROUGH CONTINUES TO MOVE THROUGH
THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON...MOST OF THE HIGH LEVEL CLOUDINESS HAS
ALREADY MOVED INTO EASTERN AND NORTHERN ARIZONA. THIS WAVE WILL
CONTINUE TO WEAKEN AND DAMPEN OUT OVERNIGHT...LEAVING MOSTLY CLEAR
SKIES IN ITS WAKE OVER OUR FORECAST AREA OVERNIGHT. WITH THE DRY
SURFACE/ATMOSPHERIC CONDITIONS AND LIGHT WINDS...LOW TEMPS TOMORROW
MORNING WILL ONCE AGAIN COOL DOWN INTO THE 40S ACROSS THE LOWER
DESERT ELEVATIONS. SKIES WILL START OUT MOSTLY SUNNY THURSDAY...BUT
ANOTHER MORE POTENT EASTERN PACIFIC LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE
INTO THE DESERT SOUTHWEST THURSDAY NIGHT...BRING MORE SUBSTANTIAL
CLOUD COVER AND SLIGHT CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION TO THE REGION
THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT.

FRIDAY...MODELS AGREE THAT MOISTURE WITH THIS NEXT UPPER LOW WILL
MAINLY BE AT AND ABOVE 700MB OVER OUR FORECAST AREA...BETTER OVER
FGZ AND VEF CWA. HOWEVER...A NICE BULLS-EYE OF DYNAMICAL FORCING PER
DIV Q FIELD MOVES THROUGH...NOT MUCH IN THE WAY OF FRONTAL LIFT. SO
THERE WILL BE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF PRECIP FROM WEST TO EAST LATE
THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH LATE FRIDAY NIGHT. MODELS ALSO DEPICT A SMALL
BATCH OF NEGATIVE LIFTED INDEX VALUES WITH THE UPPER LOW CENTER...
MAINLY OVER SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA AND SOUTHWEST ARIZONA. MOISTURE
LOOKING TOO LIMITED TO MENTION THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL. SNOW LEVELS
STAY ABOVE 6000 FEET. TEMPERATURES WILL DECLINE FRIDAY BUT NOT
DRAMATICALLY AS THERE IS A LACK OF STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION AT THE
LOWER LEVELS. HOWEVER...NUDGED THE FORECAST HIGHS DOWN SLIGHTLY MORE
AS MODELS ARE TRENDING A BIT DEEPER WITH THE SYSTEM AND BIAS
CORRECTED GUIDANCE LOOKS TO BE TOO WARM. BREEZY TO WINDY CONDITIONS
CAN BE EXPECTED WAS WELL...MAINLY OVER SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA AND
SOUTHWEST ARIZONA. WINDS NOT LOOKING AS STRONG AS THIS PAST SUNDAY.

SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...
DRY NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT TAKES SHAPE THIS WEEKEND. TEMPS DONT BOUNCE
BACK UP AS TROUGHING REDEVELOPS OVER THE INTERIOR WEST AND A DRY
COOL FRONT MOVES THROUGH SUNDAY. ONLY MINOR COOL AIR ADVECTION BUT
ANOTHER ROUND OF NORTHERLY BREEZINESS DEVELOPS OVER SOUTHEAST
CALIFORNIA AND SOUTHWEST ARIZONA.

MONDAY AND TUESDAY...
PACIFIC RIDGING SLOWLY EXPANDS EASTWARD MONDAY AND TUESDAY WITH ONLY
SUBTLE WARMING AT THE SURFACE BY TUESDAY. A SURFACE HIGH TRACKS
ACROSS THE GREAT BASIN FOR NORTH AND NORTHEAST BREEZINESS AT TIMES.
MAY BE ENOUGH TO KEEP MIXING GOING JUST ENOUGH OVERNIGHT TO KEEP MIN
TEMPS A BIT HIGHER THAN THEY MIGHT OTHERWISE BE.

&&

.AVIATION...
SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA INCLUDING KPHX...KIWA...AND KSDL...SOUTHEAST
CALIFORNIA AND SOUTHWEST ARIZONA...INCLUDING KIPL AND KBLH...

DRY WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL CONTINUE OVER THE REGION. CONSIDERABLE
HIGH CLOUDS AOA 20 THSD MSL...CLEAR 18Z THU TO 23Z THU. LIGHT WIND
UNDER 8 KNOTS.

AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDED TAFS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...
THE STORM TRACK WILL BEGIN TO MOVE SOUTH THIS PERIOD ACROSS PARTS OF
ARIZONA. ONE RELATIVELY COOL AND BREEZY PACIFIC WEATHER SYSTEM WILL
MOVE INTO THE REGION FRIDAY. WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED IN
THE 10 TO 18 MPH RANGE FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING...WITH A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF SHOWERS FROM PHOENIX EAST INTO SOUTHERN GILA COUNTY.

ANOTHER WEATHER SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS NORTHERN ARIZONA
SUNDAY AND MONDAY. ALTHOUGH THESE SYSTEMS WILL BE DRY FOR SOUTHERN
ARIZONA...BREEZY TO WINDY NORTH TO NORTHEAST WINDS WILL DEVELOP
SUNDAY AND MONDAY...PARTICULARLY DOWN THE COLORADO RIVER VALLEY WITH
GUSTS TO 35 MPH POSSIBLE DURING THE AFTERNOONS.

MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITIES WILL RANGE FROM 25 TO 35 PERCENT...
FALLING DRAMATICALLY INTO THE TEENS MONDAY AND TUESDAY.

&&

.PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

AZ...NONE.

CA...NONE.

&&

$$

VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/PHOENIX

DISCUSSION...MEYERS/AJ
AVIATION...VASQUEZ
FIRE WEATHER...VASQUEZ






000
FXUS65 KTWC 192140
AFDTWC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ
240 PM MST WED NOV 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...DRY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THURSDAY. A LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM MOVING ACROSS THE AREA WILL BRING A CHANCE OF VALLEY RAIN AND
MOUNTAIN SNOW SHOWERS FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. ONLY LIGHT
PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED. DRY CONDITIONS WITH A SLOW
WARMING TREND WILL THEN PREVAIL SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...THE BACK EDGE OF MAINLY HIGH-LEVEL CLOUDS REPRESENTING
A SHORTWAVE TROUGH AXIS EXTENDED FROM SRN NEVADA SEWD INTO WRN PIMA
COUNTY THIS AFTERNOON. THE BULK OF THESE CLOUDS WILL MOVE EWD INTO
NEW MEXICO THIS EVENING. MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES WILL THEN PREVAIL LATE
TONIGHT AND THUR. A STRONGER SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS PROGGED VIA THE
19/12Z GFS/ECWMF TO BE OVER THE GREAT BASIN/SRN CALIFORNIA REGION
THUR NIGHT. THIS SYSTEM WILL MOVE SEWD ACROSS THE AREA FRI AFTERNOON
AND EVENING.

HAVE NOTED THAT THE GFS/ECMWF HAVE TRENDED SLIGHTLY FURTHER SOUTH
WITH THE PATH OF THE MID-LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION VERSUS PREVIOUS
SOLUTIONS. THE GFS/ECMWF FAVOR LOCALES SOUTH OF TUCSON FOR THE
HIGHEST QPF/S. HOWEVER...THESE AMOUNTS STILL REMAIN MOSTLY LESS THAN
ONE TENTH OF AN INCH. HAVE MADE SOME MINOR MODIFICATIONS TO THE
GRIDDED DATA POP FIELDS FOR FRI AFTERNOON/EVENING TO ACCOUNT FOR
SLIGHTLY BETTER PRECIP CHANCES SOUTH-TO-SOUTHEAST OF TUCSON.

FOR CONTINUITY AND PER COORD WITH NEIGHBORING WFO/S...HAVE
MAINTAINED CHANCE-CATEGORY POPS ACROSS THE WHITE MOUNTAINS. HAVE
OPTED TO DEPICT THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA FRI AFTERNOON WITH A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF SHOWERS. THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS FRI EVENING
FROM TUCSON EWD/SWD. GIVEN THE RAPID PROGRESSION OF THIS SYSTEM AND
THE LACK OF SIGNIFICANT LOWER LEVEL MOISTURE...LIQUID AMOUNTS SHOULD
BE QUITE LIGHT. SNOW LEVELS BY FRI EVENING SHOULD GENERALLY BE NEAR
7000 FEET...AND SNOW ACCUMULATIONS SHOULD BE LIMITED TO ONLY AN INCH
OR SO ACROSS THE HIGHEST PEAKS. DRY CONDITIONS UNDER NWLY FLOW ALOFT
WILL OCCUR LATE FRI NIGHT-SAT NIGHT.

THE NEXT SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL THEN MOVE RAPIDLY SEWD ACROSS THE
CENTRAL ROCKIES SUN. HAVE REMOVED THE PREVIOUS DEPICTION OF A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS SUN ACROSS THE WHITE MOUNTAINS. A TIGHT MID-
LEVEL GRADIENT WILL PRODUCE GUSTY WLY/NWLY WINDS SUN. THE
ORIENTATION OF THE MID-LEVEL GRADIENT FAVORS THE UPPER GILA VALLEY
WITH THE STRONGER WINDS. DRY CONDITIONS WILL THEN OCCUR MON-WED AS
HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT REMAINS CENTERED WEST OF THE SRN CALIFORNIA
COAST NEAR 30N/130W.

HIGH TEMPS THUR WILL BE A FEW DEGS COOLER VERSUS TEMPS ACHIEVED THIS
AFTERNOON. EXPECT AN ADDITIONAL 5 DEGS OR SO OF COOLING FRI FOLLOWED
BY A VERY GRADUAL WARMING TREND SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...VALID THRU 21/00Z.
A FEW TO SCATTERED MAINLY HIGH CLOUDS THIS EVENING WILL GIVE WAY TO
CLEAR SKIES LATER TONIGHT AS A WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE EXITS
THE REGION. MOSTLY CLEAR CONDITIONS WITH PERHAPS A FEW CIRRUS WILL
THEN PREVAIL THROUGH THE DAY THURSDAY. SURFACE WIND GENERALLY LESS
THAN 10 KTS WITH NORMAL DIURNAL PATTERNS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
THURSDAY AFTERNOON. AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR TAF
AMENDMENTS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...DRY CONDITIONS WITH LIGHT TERRAIN DRIVEN WINDS WILL
PREVAIL THROUGH THURSDAY. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BRING ISOLATED
TO SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS WITH PERHAPS A FEW MOUNTAIN SNOW SHOWERS
FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND FRIDAY EVENING. DRY CONDITIONS WILL THEN
CONTINUE THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
PASSING TO THE NORTH OF THE REGION SUNDAY WILL BRING GUSTY WEST TO
NORTHWEST WINDS TO THE AREA. THE UPPER GILA VALLEY MAY SEE WINDS OF
10-15 MPH WITH GUSTS OF 25-30 MPH. SLIGHTLY ELEVATED EASTERLY WINDS
ARE EXPECTED OVERNIGHT MONDAY AND INTO TUESDAY MORNING.

&&

.TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...YOUTUBE...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/TUCSON

DISCUSSION...FRANCIS
AVIATION/FIRE WEATHER...FRENCH






000
FXUS65 KTWC 192140
AFDTWC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ
240 PM MST WED NOV 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...DRY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THURSDAY. A LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM MOVING ACROSS THE AREA WILL BRING A CHANCE OF VALLEY RAIN AND
MOUNTAIN SNOW SHOWERS FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. ONLY LIGHT
PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED. DRY CONDITIONS WITH A SLOW
WARMING TREND WILL THEN PREVAIL SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...THE BACK EDGE OF MAINLY HIGH-LEVEL CLOUDS REPRESENTING
A SHORTWAVE TROUGH AXIS EXTENDED FROM SRN NEVADA SEWD INTO WRN PIMA
COUNTY THIS AFTERNOON. THE BULK OF THESE CLOUDS WILL MOVE EWD INTO
NEW MEXICO THIS EVENING. MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES WILL THEN PREVAIL LATE
TONIGHT AND THUR. A STRONGER SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS PROGGED VIA THE
19/12Z GFS/ECWMF TO BE OVER THE GREAT BASIN/SRN CALIFORNIA REGION
THUR NIGHT. THIS SYSTEM WILL MOVE SEWD ACROSS THE AREA FRI AFTERNOON
AND EVENING.

HAVE NOTED THAT THE GFS/ECMWF HAVE TRENDED SLIGHTLY FURTHER SOUTH
WITH THE PATH OF THE MID-LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION VERSUS PREVIOUS
SOLUTIONS. THE GFS/ECMWF FAVOR LOCALES SOUTH OF TUCSON FOR THE
HIGHEST QPF/S. HOWEVER...THESE AMOUNTS STILL REMAIN MOSTLY LESS THAN
ONE TENTH OF AN INCH. HAVE MADE SOME MINOR MODIFICATIONS TO THE
GRIDDED DATA POP FIELDS FOR FRI AFTERNOON/EVENING TO ACCOUNT FOR
SLIGHTLY BETTER PRECIP CHANCES SOUTH-TO-SOUTHEAST OF TUCSON.

FOR CONTINUITY AND PER COORD WITH NEIGHBORING WFO/S...HAVE
MAINTAINED CHANCE-CATEGORY POPS ACROSS THE WHITE MOUNTAINS. HAVE
OPTED TO DEPICT THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA FRI AFTERNOON WITH A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF SHOWERS. THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS FRI EVENING
FROM TUCSON EWD/SWD. GIVEN THE RAPID PROGRESSION OF THIS SYSTEM AND
THE LACK OF SIGNIFICANT LOWER LEVEL MOISTURE...LIQUID AMOUNTS SHOULD
BE QUITE LIGHT. SNOW LEVELS BY FRI EVENING SHOULD GENERALLY BE NEAR
7000 FEET...AND SNOW ACCUMULATIONS SHOULD BE LIMITED TO ONLY AN INCH
OR SO ACROSS THE HIGHEST PEAKS. DRY CONDITIONS UNDER NWLY FLOW ALOFT
WILL OCCUR LATE FRI NIGHT-SAT NIGHT.

THE NEXT SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL THEN MOVE RAPIDLY SEWD ACROSS THE
CENTRAL ROCKIES SUN. HAVE REMOVED THE PREVIOUS DEPICTION OF A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS SUN ACROSS THE WHITE MOUNTAINS. A TIGHT MID-
LEVEL GRADIENT WILL PRODUCE GUSTY WLY/NWLY WINDS SUN. THE
ORIENTATION OF THE MID-LEVEL GRADIENT FAVORS THE UPPER GILA VALLEY
WITH THE STRONGER WINDS. DRY CONDITIONS WILL THEN OCCUR MON-WED AS
HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT REMAINS CENTERED WEST OF THE SRN CALIFORNIA
COAST NEAR 30N/130W.

HIGH TEMPS THUR WILL BE A FEW DEGS COOLER VERSUS TEMPS ACHIEVED THIS
AFTERNOON. EXPECT AN ADDITIONAL 5 DEGS OR SO OF COOLING FRI FOLLOWED
BY A VERY GRADUAL WARMING TREND SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...VALID THRU 21/00Z.
A FEW TO SCATTERED MAINLY HIGH CLOUDS THIS EVENING WILL GIVE WAY TO
CLEAR SKIES LATER TONIGHT AS A WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE EXITS
THE REGION. MOSTLY CLEAR CONDITIONS WITH PERHAPS A FEW CIRRUS WILL
THEN PREVAIL THROUGH THE DAY THURSDAY. SURFACE WIND GENERALLY LESS
THAN 10 KTS WITH NORMAL DIURNAL PATTERNS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
THURSDAY AFTERNOON. AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR TAF
AMENDMENTS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...DRY CONDITIONS WITH LIGHT TERRAIN DRIVEN WINDS WILL
PREVAIL THROUGH THURSDAY. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BRING ISOLATED
TO SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS WITH PERHAPS A FEW MOUNTAIN SNOW SHOWERS
FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND FRIDAY EVENING. DRY CONDITIONS WILL THEN
CONTINUE THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
PASSING TO THE NORTH OF THE REGION SUNDAY WILL BRING GUSTY WEST TO
NORTHWEST WINDS TO THE AREA. THE UPPER GILA VALLEY MAY SEE WINDS OF
10-15 MPH WITH GUSTS OF 25-30 MPH. SLIGHTLY ELEVATED EASTERLY WINDS
ARE EXPECTED OVERNIGHT MONDAY AND INTO TUESDAY MORNING.

&&

.TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...YOUTUBE...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/TUCSON

DISCUSSION...FRANCIS
AVIATION/FIRE WEATHER...FRENCH






000
FXUS65 KTWC 192140
AFDTWC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ
240 PM MST WED NOV 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...DRY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THURSDAY. A LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM MOVING ACROSS THE AREA WILL BRING A CHANCE OF VALLEY RAIN AND
MOUNTAIN SNOW SHOWERS FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. ONLY LIGHT
PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED. DRY CONDITIONS WITH A SLOW
WARMING TREND WILL THEN PREVAIL SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...THE BACK EDGE OF MAINLY HIGH-LEVEL CLOUDS REPRESENTING
A SHORTWAVE TROUGH AXIS EXTENDED FROM SRN NEVADA SEWD INTO WRN PIMA
COUNTY THIS AFTERNOON. THE BULK OF THESE CLOUDS WILL MOVE EWD INTO
NEW MEXICO THIS EVENING. MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES WILL THEN PREVAIL LATE
TONIGHT AND THUR. A STRONGER SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS PROGGED VIA THE
19/12Z GFS/ECWMF TO BE OVER THE GREAT BASIN/SRN CALIFORNIA REGION
THUR NIGHT. THIS SYSTEM WILL MOVE SEWD ACROSS THE AREA FRI AFTERNOON
AND EVENING.

HAVE NOTED THAT THE GFS/ECMWF HAVE TRENDED SLIGHTLY FURTHER SOUTH
WITH THE PATH OF THE MID-LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION VERSUS PREVIOUS
SOLUTIONS. THE GFS/ECMWF FAVOR LOCALES SOUTH OF TUCSON FOR THE
HIGHEST QPF/S. HOWEVER...THESE AMOUNTS STILL REMAIN MOSTLY LESS THAN
ONE TENTH OF AN INCH. HAVE MADE SOME MINOR MODIFICATIONS TO THE
GRIDDED DATA POP FIELDS FOR FRI AFTERNOON/EVENING TO ACCOUNT FOR
SLIGHTLY BETTER PRECIP CHANCES SOUTH-TO-SOUTHEAST OF TUCSON.

FOR CONTINUITY AND PER COORD WITH NEIGHBORING WFO/S...HAVE
MAINTAINED CHANCE-CATEGORY POPS ACROSS THE WHITE MOUNTAINS. HAVE
OPTED TO DEPICT THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA FRI AFTERNOON WITH A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF SHOWERS. THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS FRI EVENING
FROM TUCSON EWD/SWD. GIVEN THE RAPID PROGRESSION OF THIS SYSTEM AND
THE LACK OF SIGNIFICANT LOWER LEVEL MOISTURE...LIQUID AMOUNTS SHOULD
BE QUITE LIGHT. SNOW LEVELS BY FRI EVENING SHOULD GENERALLY BE NEAR
7000 FEET...AND SNOW ACCUMULATIONS SHOULD BE LIMITED TO ONLY AN INCH
OR SO ACROSS THE HIGHEST PEAKS. DRY CONDITIONS UNDER NWLY FLOW ALOFT
WILL OCCUR LATE FRI NIGHT-SAT NIGHT.

THE NEXT SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL THEN MOVE RAPIDLY SEWD ACROSS THE
CENTRAL ROCKIES SUN. HAVE REMOVED THE PREVIOUS DEPICTION OF A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS SUN ACROSS THE WHITE MOUNTAINS. A TIGHT MID-
LEVEL GRADIENT WILL PRODUCE GUSTY WLY/NWLY WINDS SUN. THE
ORIENTATION OF THE MID-LEVEL GRADIENT FAVORS THE UPPER GILA VALLEY
WITH THE STRONGER WINDS. DRY CONDITIONS WILL THEN OCCUR MON-WED AS
HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT REMAINS CENTERED WEST OF THE SRN CALIFORNIA
COAST NEAR 30N/130W.

HIGH TEMPS THUR WILL BE A FEW DEGS COOLER VERSUS TEMPS ACHIEVED THIS
AFTERNOON. EXPECT AN ADDITIONAL 5 DEGS OR SO OF COOLING FRI FOLLOWED
BY A VERY GRADUAL WARMING TREND SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...VALID THRU 21/00Z.
A FEW TO SCATTERED MAINLY HIGH CLOUDS THIS EVENING WILL GIVE WAY TO
CLEAR SKIES LATER TONIGHT AS A WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE EXITS
THE REGION. MOSTLY CLEAR CONDITIONS WITH PERHAPS A FEW CIRRUS WILL
THEN PREVAIL THROUGH THE DAY THURSDAY. SURFACE WIND GENERALLY LESS
THAN 10 KTS WITH NORMAL DIURNAL PATTERNS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
THURSDAY AFTERNOON. AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR TAF
AMENDMENTS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...DRY CONDITIONS WITH LIGHT TERRAIN DRIVEN WINDS WILL
PREVAIL THROUGH THURSDAY. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BRING ISOLATED
TO SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS WITH PERHAPS A FEW MOUNTAIN SNOW SHOWERS
FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND FRIDAY EVENING. DRY CONDITIONS WILL THEN
CONTINUE THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
PASSING TO THE NORTH OF THE REGION SUNDAY WILL BRING GUSTY WEST TO
NORTHWEST WINDS TO THE AREA. THE UPPER GILA VALLEY MAY SEE WINDS OF
10-15 MPH WITH GUSTS OF 25-30 MPH. SLIGHTLY ELEVATED EASTERLY WINDS
ARE EXPECTED OVERNIGHT MONDAY AND INTO TUESDAY MORNING.

&&

.TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...YOUTUBE...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/TUCSON

DISCUSSION...FRANCIS
AVIATION/FIRE WEATHER...FRENCH






000
FXUS65 KTWC 192140
AFDTWC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ
240 PM MST WED NOV 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...DRY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THURSDAY. A LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM MOVING ACROSS THE AREA WILL BRING A CHANCE OF VALLEY RAIN AND
MOUNTAIN SNOW SHOWERS FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. ONLY LIGHT
PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED. DRY CONDITIONS WITH A SLOW
WARMING TREND WILL THEN PREVAIL SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...THE BACK EDGE OF MAINLY HIGH-LEVEL CLOUDS REPRESENTING
A SHORTWAVE TROUGH AXIS EXTENDED FROM SRN NEVADA SEWD INTO WRN PIMA
COUNTY THIS AFTERNOON. THE BULK OF THESE CLOUDS WILL MOVE EWD INTO
NEW MEXICO THIS EVENING. MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES WILL THEN PREVAIL LATE
TONIGHT AND THUR. A STRONGER SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS PROGGED VIA THE
19/12Z GFS/ECWMF TO BE OVER THE GREAT BASIN/SRN CALIFORNIA REGION
THUR NIGHT. THIS SYSTEM WILL MOVE SEWD ACROSS THE AREA FRI AFTERNOON
AND EVENING.

HAVE NOTED THAT THE GFS/ECMWF HAVE TRENDED SLIGHTLY FURTHER SOUTH
WITH THE PATH OF THE MID-LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION VERSUS PREVIOUS
SOLUTIONS. THE GFS/ECMWF FAVOR LOCALES SOUTH OF TUCSON FOR THE
HIGHEST QPF/S. HOWEVER...THESE AMOUNTS STILL REMAIN MOSTLY LESS THAN
ONE TENTH OF AN INCH. HAVE MADE SOME MINOR MODIFICATIONS TO THE
GRIDDED DATA POP FIELDS FOR FRI AFTERNOON/EVENING TO ACCOUNT FOR
SLIGHTLY BETTER PRECIP CHANCES SOUTH-TO-SOUTHEAST OF TUCSON.

FOR CONTINUITY AND PER COORD WITH NEIGHBORING WFO/S...HAVE
MAINTAINED CHANCE-CATEGORY POPS ACROSS THE WHITE MOUNTAINS. HAVE
OPTED TO DEPICT THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA FRI AFTERNOON WITH A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF SHOWERS. THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS FRI EVENING
FROM TUCSON EWD/SWD. GIVEN THE RAPID PROGRESSION OF THIS SYSTEM AND
THE LACK OF SIGNIFICANT LOWER LEVEL MOISTURE...LIQUID AMOUNTS SHOULD
BE QUITE LIGHT. SNOW LEVELS BY FRI EVENING SHOULD GENERALLY BE NEAR
7000 FEET...AND SNOW ACCUMULATIONS SHOULD BE LIMITED TO ONLY AN INCH
OR SO ACROSS THE HIGHEST PEAKS. DRY CONDITIONS UNDER NWLY FLOW ALOFT
WILL OCCUR LATE FRI NIGHT-SAT NIGHT.

THE NEXT SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL THEN MOVE RAPIDLY SEWD ACROSS THE
CENTRAL ROCKIES SUN. HAVE REMOVED THE PREVIOUS DEPICTION OF A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS SUN ACROSS THE WHITE MOUNTAINS. A TIGHT MID-
LEVEL GRADIENT WILL PRODUCE GUSTY WLY/NWLY WINDS SUN. THE
ORIENTATION OF THE MID-LEVEL GRADIENT FAVORS THE UPPER GILA VALLEY
WITH THE STRONGER WINDS. DRY CONDITIONS WILL THEN OCCUR MON-WED AS
HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT REMAINS CENTERED WEST OF THE SRN CALIFORNIA
COAST NEAR 30N/130W.

HIGH TEMPS THUR WILL BE A FEW DEGS COOLER VERSUS TEMPS ACHIEVED THIS
AFTERNOON. EXPECT AN ADDITIONAL 5 DEGS OR SO OF COOLING FRI FOLLOWED
BY A VERY GRADUAL WARMING TREND SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...VALID THRU 21/00Z.
A FEW TO SCATTERED MAINLY HIGH CLOUDS THIS EVENING WILL GIVE WAY TO
CLEAR SKIES LATER TONIGHT AS A WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE EXITS
THE REGION. MOSTLY CLEAR CONDITIONS WITH PERHAPS A FEW CIRRUS WILL
THEN PREVAIL THROUGH THE DAY THURSDAY. SURFACE WIND GENERALLY LESS
THAN 10 KTS WITH NORMAL DIURNAL PATTERNS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
THURSDAY AFTERNOON. AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR TAF
AMENDMENTS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...DRY CONDITIONS WITH LIGHT TERRAIN DRIVEN WINDS WILL
PREVAIL THROUGH THURSDAY. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BRING ISOLATED
TO SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS WITH PERHAPS A FEW MOUNTAIN SNOW SHOWERS
FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND FRIDAY EVENING. DRY CONDITIONS WILL THEN
CONTINUE THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
PASSING TO THE NORTH OF THE REGION SUNDAY WILL BRING GUSTY WEST TO
NORTHWEST WINDS TO THE AREA. THE UPPER GILA VALLEY MAY SEE WINDS OF
10-15 MPH WITH GUSTS OF 25-30 MPH. SLIGHTLY ELEVATED EASTERLY WINDS
ARE EXPECTED OVERNIGHT MONDAY AND INTO TUESDAY MORNING.

&&

.TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...YOUTUBE...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/TUCSON

DISCUSSION...FRANCIS
AVIATION/FIRE WEATHER...FRENCH






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