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000
FXUS65 KFGZ 012243
AFDFGZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ
343 PM MST WED APR 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LOOK FOR DRY WEATHER TO CONTINUE THROUGH NEXT TUESDAY. DAYTIME
TEMPERATURES WILL BEGIN A SLIGHT COOLING TREND OVER THE NEXT FEW
DAYS. GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED THE REMAINDER OF TODAY
AND THURSDAY...AND POSSIBLY AGAIN ON SUNDAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
A TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH AND MOVE ACROSS
NORTHERN ARIZONA OVER THE COMING 24 HRS OR SO. THOUGH TEMPS WILL
COOL A FEW DEGREES FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...THE MAIN IMPACT FROM
THE PASSAGE WILL BE STRONG AND GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS. TO ACCOUNT
FOR THESE WINDS...WE HAVE ISSUED BOTH A RED FLAG WARNING AND A
WIND ADVISORY FOR MUCH OF NORTHEASTERN ARIZONA. FOR WINDS
EXPECTED AT A GIVEN LOCATION...PLEASE CONSULT THESE PRODUCTS OR
THE POINT-AND-CLICK FORECAST ACCESSIBLE FROM OUR WEBPAGE. ZONAL
FLOW RETURNS FOR FRIDAY INTO EARLY SATURDAY...BEFORE ANOTHER
TROUGH TAKES SHAPE LATER IN THE WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK. AS
SUCH...ANOTHER ROUND OF GUSTY SPRINGTIME WINDS LOOKS TO RETURN FOR
SUNDAY AND MONDAY. WITH SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES BETWEEN THE GFS &
ECMWF...THE REMAINDER OF THE EXTENDED FORECAST IS NOT AS
CERTAIN...BUT WE ARE EXPECTING COOLER TEMPS AND THE POTENTIAL FOR
A RETURN OF SHOWERS BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. SOLUTIONS SHOULD
BECOME MORE FOCUSED IN THE COMING DAYS.

&&

.AVIATION...
FOR THE 00Z PACKAGE...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 24
HRS. GUSTY SOUTHWEST TO WEST WINDS WILL DECREASE AFTER 02Z.
WINDS OVERNIGHT GENERALLY SOUTHWEST 5-15 KT BUT LOCAL GUSTS TO 30
KTS POSSIBLE DOWN WIND OF TERRAIN FEATURES. STRONGER SOUTHWEST
WINDS DEVELOPING AFT 15Z THURSDAY BECOMING 20-30 KTS GUSTING 30-40
KTS. AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR TAF AMENDMENTS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
STRONGER WIND SPEEDS ARE EXPECTED ON THURSDAY AS A DRY LOW
PRESSURE TROUGH AND COLD FRONT MOVE INTO ARIZONA. THE STRONG
WIND WILL COMBINE WITH LOW AFTERNOON RELATIVE HUMIDITY TO PRODUCE
CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ACROSS MUCH OF NORTHEASTERN
ARIZONA. CLOSER TO NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED FRIDAY WITH
LOCALLY BREEZY NORTHEAST WIND.

SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY...ANOTHER WEATHER SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO
BRING DRY AND WINDY CONDITIONS OVER THE WEEKEND. CRITICAL FIRE
WEATHER CONDITIONS LOOK LIKELY, ESPECIALLY ON SUNDAY.

&&

.FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
RED FLAG WARNING FROM 10 AM TO 8 PM MST THURSDAY FOR
AZZ109>114-116-117-139-140.
WIND ADVISORY FROM 9 AM TO 8 PM MST THURSDAY FOR AZZ009>017-
039-040.

&&

$$

PUBLIC.........KD
AVIATION.......MCS
FIRE WEATHER...MCS

FOR NORTHERN ARIZONA WEATHER INFORMATION VISIT
WEATHER.GOV/FLAGSTAFF






000
FXUS65 KFGZ 012243
AFDFGZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ
343 PM MST WED APR 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LOOK FOR DRY WEATHER TO CONTINUE THROUGH NEXT TUESDAY. DAYTIME
TEMPERATURES WILL BEGIN A SLIGHT COOLING TREND OVER THE NEXT FEW
DAYS. GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED THE REMAINDER OF TODAY
AND THURSDAY...AND POSSIBLY AGAIN ON SUNDAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
A TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH AND MOVE ACROSS
NORTHERN ARIZONA OVER THE COMING 24 HRS OR SO. THOUGH TEMPS WILL
COOL A FEW DEGREES FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...THE MAIN IMPACT FROM
THE PASSAGE WILL BE STRONG AND GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS. TO ACCOUNT
FOR THESE WINDS...WE HAVE ISSUED BOTH A RED FLAG WARNING AND A
WIND ADVISORY FOR MUCH OF NORTHEASTERN ARIZONA. FOR WINDS
EXPECTED AT A GIVEN LOCATION...PLEASE CONSULT THESE PRODUCTS OR
THE POINT-AND-CLICK FORECAST ACCESSIBLE FROM OUR WEBPAGE. ZONAL
FLOW RETURNS FOR FRIDAY INTO EARLY SATURDAY...BEFORE ANOTHER
TROUGH TAKES SHAPE LATER IN THE WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK. AS
SUCH...ANOTHER ROUND OF GUSTY SPRINGTIME WINDS LOOKS TO RETURN FOR
SUNDAY AND MONDAY. WITH SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES BETWEEN THE GFS &
ECMWF...THE REMAINDER OF THE EXTENDED FORECAST IS NOT AS
CERTAIN...BUT WE ARE EXPECTING COOLER TEMPS AND THE POTENTIAL FOR
A RETURN OF SHOWERS BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. SOLUTIONS SHOULD
BECOME MORE FOCUSED IN THE COMING DAYS.

&&

.AVIATION...
FOR THE 00Z PACKAGE...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 24
HRS. GUSTY SOUTHWEST TO WEST WINDS WILL DECREASE AFTER 02Z.
WINDS OVERNIGHT GENERALLY SOUTHWEST 5-15 KT BUT LOCAL GUSTS TO 30
KTS POSSIBLE DOWN WIND OF TERRAIN FEATURES. STRONGER SOUTHWEST
WINDS DEVELOPING AFT 15Z THURSDAY BECOMING 20-30 KTS GUSTING 30-40
KTS. AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR TAF AMENDMENTS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
STRONGER WIND SPEEDS ARE EXPECTED ON THURSDAY AS A DRY LOW
PRESSURE TROUGH AND COLD FRONT MOVE INTO ARIZONA. THE STRONG
WIND WILL COMBINE WITH LOW AFTERNOON RELATIVE HUMIDITY TO PRODUCE
CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ACROSS MUCH OF NORTHEASTERN
ARIZONA. CLOSER TO NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED FRIDAY WITH
LOCALLY BREEZY NORTHEAST WIND.

SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY...ANOTHER WEATHER SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO
BRING DRY AND WINDY CONDITIONS OVER THE WEEKEND. CRITICAL FIRE
WEATHER CONDITIONS LOOK LIKELY, ESPECIALLY ON SUNDAY.

&&

.FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
RED FLAG WARNING FROM 10 AM TO 8 PM MST THURSDAY FOR
AZZ109>114-116-117-139-140.
WIND ADVISORY FROM 9 AM TO 8 PM MST THURSDAY FOR AZZ009>017-
039-040.

&&

$$

PUBLIC.........KD
AVIATION.......MCS
FIRE WEATHER...MCS

FOR NORTHERN ARIZONA WEATHER INFORMATION VISIT
WEATHER.GOV/FLAGSTAFF







000
FXUS65 KFGZ 012243
AFDFGZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ
343 PM MST WED APR 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LOOK FOR DRY WEATHER TO CONTINUE THROUGH NEXT TUESDAY. DAYTIME
TEMPERATURES WILL BEGIN A SLIGHT COOLING TREND OVER THE NEXT FEW
DAYS. GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED THE REMAINDER OF TODAY
AND THURSDAY...AND POSSIBLY AGAIN ON SUNDAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
A TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH AND MOVE ACROSS
NORTHERN ARIZONA OVER THE COMING 24 HRS OR SO. THOUGH TEMPS WILL
COOL A FEW DEGREES FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...THE MAIN IMPACT FROM
THE PASSAGE WILL BE STRONG AND GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS. TO ACCOUNT
FOR THESE WINDS...WE HAVE ISSUED BOTH A RED FLAG WARNING AND A
WIND ADVISORY FOR MUCH OF NORTHEASTERN ARIZONA. FOR WINDS
EXPECTED AT A GIVEN LOCATION...PLEASE CONSULT THESE PRODUCTS OR
THE POINT-AND-CLICK FORECAST ACCESSIBLE FROM OUR WEBPAGE. ZONAL
FLOW RETURNS FOR FRIDAY INTO EARLY SATURDAY...BEFORE ANOTHER
TROUGH TAKES SHAPE LATER IN THE WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK. AS
SUCH...ANOTHER ROUND OF GUSTY SPRINGTIME WINDS LOOKS TO RETURN FOR
SUNDAY AND MONDAY. WITH SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES BETWEEN THE GFS &
ECMWF...THE REMAINDER OF THE EXTENDED FORECAST IS NOT AS
CERTAIN...BUT WE ARE EXPECTING COOLER TEMPS AND THE POTENTIAL FOR
A RETURN OF SHOWERS BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. SOLUTIONS SHOULD
BECOME MORE FOCUSED IN THE COMING DAYS.

&&

.AVIATION...
FOR THE 00Z PACKAGE...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 24
HRS. GUSTY SOUTHWEST TO WEST WINDS WILL DECREASE AFTER 02Z.
WINDS OVERNIGHT GENERALLY SOUTHWEST 5-15 KT BUT LOCAL GUSTS TO 30
KTS POSSIBLE DOWN WIND OF TERRAIN FEATURES. STRONGER SOUTHWEST
WINDS DEVELOPING AFT 15Z THURSDAY BECOMING 20-30 KTS GUSTING 30-40
KTS. AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR TAF AMENDMENTS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
STRONGER WIND SPEEDS ARE EXPECTED ON THURSDAY AS A DRY LOW
PRESSURE TROUGH AND COLD FRONT MOVE INTO ARIZONA. THE STRONG
WIND WILL COMBINE WITH LOW AFTERNOON RELATIVE HUMIDITY TO PRODUCE
CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ACROSS MUCH OF NORTHEASTERN
ARIZONA. CLOSER TO NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED FRIDAY WITH
LOCALLY BREEZY NORTHEAST WIND.

SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY...ANOTHER WEATHER SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO
BRING DRY AND WINDY CONDITIONS OVER THE WEEKEND. CRITICAL FIRE
WEATHER CONDITIONS LOOK LIKELY, ESPECIALLY ON SUNDAY.

&&

.FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
RED FLAG WARNING FROM 10 AM TO 8 PM MST THURSDAY FOR
AZZ109>114-116-117-139-140.
WIND ADVISORY FROM 9 AM TO 8 PM MST THURSDAY FOR AZZ009>017-
039-040.

&&

$$

PUBLIC.........KD
AVIATION.......MCS
FIRE WEATHER...MCS

FOR NORTHERN ARIZONA WEATHER INFORMATION VISIT
WEATHER.GOV/FLAGSTAFF






  [top]

000
FXUS65 KTWC 012146
AFDTWC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ
246 PM MST WED APR 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...DRY CONDITIONS WITH ABOVE NORMAL DAYTIME TEMPERATURES
WILL CONTINUE INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. EXPECT EVEN STRONGER WINDS
THURSDAY AS A WEATHER SYSTEM MOVES NORTH OF THE AREA. MARKEDLY LESS
WIND WILL OCCUR FRIDAY...THEN MAINLY AFTERNOON BREEZINESS WILL
RETURN THIS WEEKEND. NOTICEABLY COOLER TEMPERATURES SHOULD OCCUR BY
THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION..SOME GUSTY WINDS ACROSS THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON AS THE
TAIL END OF A WEATHER SYSTEM APPROACHES THE REGION. LATEST MODELS
TRACK THIS SYSTEM THROUGH THE ROCKIES AND INTO THE PLAINS ON
THURSDAY. DRY CONDITIONS ALONG WITH STRONGER WINDS TOMORROW
AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING HAVE PROMPTED THE ISSUANCE OF A RED FLAG
WARNING FOR FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS IN THE WHITE MOUNTAINS OF ARIZONA.
MODELS SHOWED A MORE ZONAL FLOW PATTERN THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH DRY
WEATHER AND ABOVE NORMAL HIGH TEMPERATURES. MEDIUM RANGE MODELS
SHOWED A SYSTEM MOVING INTO THE WEST COAST ON SUNDAY WHICH COULD
BRING A RETURN IN STRONG WINDS AND SIGHTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES EARLY
NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...VALID THRU 03/00Z.
CLEAR SKIES TO SCATTERED CLOUDS ABOVE 20K FT AGL WILL OCCUR INTO
THURSDAY MORNING. SURFACE WIND WILL BE WLY/SWLY AT 10-20 KTS
WITH GUSTS OF 20-30 KTS. SURFACE WIND AFTER 02/02Z WILL BE SLY/SWLY
AT 5-15 KTS WITH GUSTS TO 20 KTS. EVEN STRONGER SURFACE WIND AFT
02/18Z. AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR TAF AMENDMENTS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...A RED FLAG WARNING IS IN EFFECT FROM 10 AM THURSDAY
MORNING UNTIL 8 PM MST THURSDAY EVENING FOR FIRE WEATHER ZONE 153.
THIS WARNING ALSO INCLUDES THE EASTERN PORTION OF FIRE WEATHER ZONE
152...OR ESSENTIALLY EAST OF A CLIFTON TO DOUGLAS LINE. THE
COMBINATION OF STRONG AND GUSTY WEST WINDS...LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY
AND A HIGH FIRE DANGER RATING WILL LIKELY CREATE CRITICAL FIRE
WEATHER CONDITIONS.

GUSTY WEST TO SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL PREVAIL TODAY IN ADVANCE OF A
DISTURBANCE THAT WILL MOVE NORTH OF THE AREA THURSDAY. HOWEVER...
WIND SPEEDS WILL NOT BE QUITE AS STRONG TODAY VERSUS THURSDAY.
THUS...WIDESPREAD CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE NOT EXPECTED
TO OCCUR TODAY. EXPECT SOMEWHAT LESS WIND FRIDAY....BUT MAINLY
AFTERNOON BREEZINESS WILL RETURN THIS WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
    RED FLAG WARNING THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING FOR
    AZZ153 AND EASTERN AZZ152 (ESSENTIALLY EAST OF A CLIFTON TO
    DOUGLAS LINE).

&&

$$

VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...YOUTUBE...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/TUCSON









000
FXUS65 KTWC 012146
AFDTWC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ
246 PM MST WED APR 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...DRY CONDITIONS WITH ABOVE NORMAL DAYTIME TEMPERATURES
WILL CONTINUE INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. EXPECT EVEN STRONGER WINDS
THURSDAY AS A WEATHER SYSTEM MOVES NORTH OF THE AREA. MARKEDLY LESS
WIND WILL OCCUR FRIDAY...THEN MAINLY AFTERNOON BREEZINESS WILL
RETURN THIS WEEKEND. NOTICEABLY COOLER TEMPERATURES SHOULD OCCUR BY
THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION..SOME GUSTY WINDS ACROSS THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON AS THE
TAIL END OF A WEATHER SYSTEM APPROACHES THE REGION. LATEST MODELS
TRACK THIS SYSTEM THROUGH THE ROCKIES AND INTO THE PLAINS ON
THURSDAY. DRY CONDITIONS ALONG WITH STRONGER WINDS TOMORROW
AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING HAVE PROMPTED THE ISSUANCE OF A RED FLAG
WARNING FOR FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS IN THE WHITE MOUNTAINS OF ARIZONA.
MODELS SHOWED A MORE ZONAL FLOW PATTERN THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH DRY
WEATHER AND ABOVE NORMAL HIGH TEMPERATURES. MEDIUM RANGE MODELS
SHOWED A SYSTEM MOVING INTO THE WEST COAST ON SUNDAY WHICH COULD
BRING A RETURN IN STRONG WINDS AND SIGHTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES EARLY
NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...VALID THRU 03/00Z.
CLEAR SKIES TO SCATTERED CLOUDS ABOVE 20K FT AGL WILL OCCUR INTO
THURSDAY MORNING. SURFACE WIND WILL BE WLY/SWLY AT 10-20 KTS
WITH GUSTS OF 20-30 KTS. SURFACE WIND AFTER 02/02Z WILL BE SLY/SWLY
AT 5-15 KTS WITH GUSTS TO 20 KTS. EVEN STRONGER SURFACE WIND AFT
02/18Z. AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR TAF AMENDMENTS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...A RED FLAG WARNING IS IN EFFECT FROM 10 AM THURSDAY
MORNING UNTIL 8 PM MST THURSDAY EVENING FOR FIRE WEATHER ZONE 153.
THIS WARNING ALSO INCLUDES THE EASTERN PORTION OF FIRE WEATHER ZONE
152...OR ESSENTIALLY EAST OF A CLIFTON TO DOUGLAS LINE. THE
COMBINATION OF STRONG AND GUSTY WEST WINDS...LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY
AND A HIGH FIRE DANGER RATING WILL LIKELY CREATE CRITICAL FIRE
WEATHER CONDITIONS.

GUSTY WEST TO SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL PREVAIL TODAY IN ADVANCE OF A
DISTURBANCE THAT WILL MOVE NORTH OF THE AREA THURSDAY. HOWEVER...
WIND SPEEDS WILL NOT BE QUITE AS STRONG TODAY VERSUS THURSDAY.
THUS...WIDESPREAD CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE NOT EXPECTED
TO OCCUR TODAY. EXPECT SOMEWHAT LESS WIND FRIDAY....BUT MAINLY
AFTERNOON BREEZINESS WILL RETURN THIS WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
    RED FLAG WARNING THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING FOR
    AZZ153 AND EASTERN AZZ152 (ESSENTIALLY EAST OF A CLIFTON TO
    DOUGLAS LINE).

&&

$$

VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...YOUTUBE...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/TUCSON







  [top]

000
FXUS65 KPSR 012017
AFDPSR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PHOENIX AZ
117 PM MST WED APR 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A DRY WEATHER SYSTEM WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION FROM THE GREAT BASIN
LATE TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...USHERING IN COOLER TEMPERATURES AND
INCREASING WINDS. DRY CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN THROUGH THE WEEKEND
WITH CONTINUED ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WITH DAYTIME HIGHS IN THE
UPPER 80S TO LOW 90S. AN ACTIVE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN WILL LINGER OVER
THE WEST INTO NEXT WEEK...RESULTING IN NEAR OR POSSIBLY EVEN BELOW
NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR OUR AFTERNOONS AND MILD MORNINGS.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
ZONAL FLOW REMAINS IN PLACE ACROSS THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON...AS A
WEAK UPSTREAM SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES THROUGH NORTHERN CALIFORNIA. AS
HEIGHTS ARE SLIGHTLY LOWER TODAY COMPARED TO YESTERDAY...TEMPERATURES
ARE ALSO RUNNING A FEW DEGREES COOLER THAN THIS TIME TUESDAY
AFTERNOON. MOST DESERT LOCALES WERE GENERALLY IN THE MID/UPPER 80S AS
OF 20Z...STILL ABOVE NORMAL FOR EARLY APRIL.

FORECAST CONCERNS IN THE SHORT TERM ARE PRIMARILY FOCUSED ON THE
PASSAGE OF THE UPSTREAM TROUGH ON THURSDAY. THE SYSTEM IS MOISTURE
STARVED AND PRECIP CHANCES ARE NIL...HOWEVER IN TYPICAL SPRINGTIME
FASHION THE TROUGH WILL SWEEP THROUGH AND USHER IN LOWER DEWPOINTS
AND INCREASED WINDS. GRADIENTS WILL BE TIGHTEST ACROSS
NORTHERN/EASTERN ARIZONA AND THESE AREAS WILL LIKELY SEE THE
STRONGEST WINDS...SIMILARLY STRONG DRY ADVECTION DOWN THE COLORADO
RIVER WILL ALSO PRODUCE A BRIEF PERIOD OF AFTERNOON BREEZINESS ON
THURSDAY. THAT BEING SAID...IT STILL APPEARS THAT CRITICAL FIRE
WEATHER THRESHOLDS WILL NOT BE REALIZED OVER A PROLONGED PERIOD OF
TIME AND A WIDESPREAD AREA WITH THE PASSAGE OF THIS EVENT...AND NO
FIRE WEATHER HEADLINES SEEM WARRANTED AT THIS TIME. THE TROUGH WILL
USHER IN SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES ALTHOUGH HIGHS THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY /WHILE COOLER/ WILL REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL.

FORECAST SOLNS IN THE EXTENDED REMAIN IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT
THROUGH ABOUT THE MIDDAY MONDAY TIME FRAME. LONGWAVE TROUGHING HOLDS
OVER MUCH OF THE WEST WITH EMBEDDED SHORTWAVE PASSING THROUGH THE
REGION TO OUR NORTH. AFTER MONDAY...A MORE ORGANIZED PACIFIC LOW IS
PROGGED TO DEVELOP OVER THE PACIFIC NW AND THEN EXPAND DOWN THE WEST
COAST. OUT OF THE 00Z OPERATIONS GUIDANCE...THE ECMWF SOLN IS THE
COLDEST AND DEEPEST SWEEPING THE SYSTEM THROUGH AZ AS A CUT-OFF LOW.
THE GFS/GEM SOLNS FAVOR A MORE OPEN WAVE WITH A LESSER SOUTHERN
EXTENT. ENSEMBLE SPREAD REMAINS HIGH...PARTICULARLY OVER THE
NORTHEAST PACIFIC AND OVER THE PACIFIC NW WITH THE GENESIS OF THIS
SYSTEM. TAKING A MEDIAN VALUE FORECAST OF ALL AVAILABLE TEMPERATURE
GUIDANCE ALONG WITH A HEAVY BLEND OF CONSENSUS GUIDANCE RESULTS IN
THE POSSIBILITY OF BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES DURING THE MIDDLE OF
NEXT WEEK. NORMALS FOR THIS PERIOD IN PHOENIX AND YUMA ARE 82/83 AND
84/85 DEGREES RESPECTIVELY. CONFIDENCE IS MARGINAL IN THESE FORECAST
VALUES AND EVEN LOWER IN THE TIMING AND MOVEMENT OF THE WEATHER
SYSTEM RESPONSIBLE FOR THE COOL DOWN. DESPITE THE DEPTH
DIFFERENCES...ALL SOLNS ATTM INDICATE THIS SYSTEMS WILL GNLY BE ON
THE DRIER SIDE. SOME MOISTURE MAY WORK INTO EASTERN AZ/MOGOLLON RIM
AND COULD RESULT IN SOME PRECIP ACTIVITY. SLIGHT BLEND OF (ABOUT 5
PERCENT OVER EACH 12 HR PERIOD) WAS WORKED INTO THE EXTENDED POP
GRIDS. RESULTING POPS DO NOT GENERATE ANY SENSIBLE WEATHER...BUT AT
LEAST A TREND WAS INTRODUCED FOR THE MIDDLE PARTS OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...
SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA INCLUDING KPHX...KIWA...AND
KSDL...AND SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA AND SOUTHWEST ARIZONA INCLUDING KIPL
AND KBLH...
A DRY WEATHER DISTURBANCE WILL APPROACH NORTHERN ARIZONA TODAY
RESULTING IN GUSTY AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING WEST WINDS OVER MOST OF
SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH CENTRAL ARIZONA. THROUGH 18Z WED...CLEAR SKIES.
LIGHT AND VARIABLE WIND UNDER 8 KNOTS. FROM 18Z WED THROUGH 03Z
THU...INCREASING AFTERNOON WEST WIND 10 TO 20 KNOTS...STRONGEST
AROUND 23Z. CLEAR SKIES.

A WEAK WEATHER DISTURBANCE PASSING TO THE NORTH WILL CONTINUE TO
PRODUCE GUSTY WESTERLY WINDS AT MOST...OR ALL OF THE TAF SITES
THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS BEFORE DIMINISHING LATER TONIGHT.
ANOTHER..STRONGER WEATHER SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO BRING ANOTHER PERIOD
OF GUSTY WESTERLY WINDS TO THE PHX TAF SITES...NORTHERLY WINDS TO
KBLH...AND NORTHWESTERLY WINDS TO KIPL ON THURSDAY AFTERNOON...WITH
GUSTS RISING INTO THE 20-25KT RANGE DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON. A
VERY DRY AIRMASS WILL KEEP SKIES MAINLY CLEAR THROUGH THE TAF
PERIOD...EXCEPT FOR PERIODS OF FEW-SCT HIGH CIRRUS LAYERS PASSING
OVERHEAD FROM TIME-TO-TIME.

AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDED TAFS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...A WEAK HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BUILD OVER
THE REGION FRIDAY AND SATURDAY FOR MUCH LIGHTER AFTERNOON WIND...
FOLLOWED BY MORE WEATHER DISTURBANCES AND GUSTY AFTERNOON WEST WIND
15 TO 30 MPH SUNDAY...MONDAY...AND TUESDAY. NO PRECIPITATION IS
EXPECTED THIS PERIOD. MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITIES WILL RANGE FROM 5
TO 10 PERCENT. FAIR RECOVERY IS EXPECTED OVERNIGHT. MARGINAL FIRE
WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SUNDAY AND MONDAY AFTERNOONS DUE TO
WIND AND LOW HUMIDITY.

&&

.PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AZ...NONE.
CA...NONE.
&&

$$

VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/PHOENIX

DISCUSSION...LEINS/NOLTE
AVIATION....PERCHA
FIRE WEATHER...VASQUEZ



000
FXUS65 KPSR 012017
AFDPSR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PHOENIX AZ
117 PM MST WED APR 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A DRY WEATHER SYSTEM WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION FROM THE GREAT BASIN
LATE TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...USHERING IN COOLER TEMPERATURES AND
INCREASING WINDS. DRY CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN THROUGH THE WEEKEND
WITH CONTINUED ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WITH DAYTIME HIGHS IN THE
UPPER 80S TO LOW 90S. AN ACTIVE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN WILL LINGER OVER
THE WEST INTO NEXT WEEK...RESULTING IN NEAR OR POSSIBLY EVEN BELOW
NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR OUR AFTERNOONS AND MILD MORNINGS.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
ZONAL FLOW REMAINS IN PLACE ACROSS THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON...AS A
WEAK UPSTREAM SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES THROUGH NORTHERN CALIFORNIA. AS
HEIGHTS ARE SLIGHTLY LOWER TODAY COMPARED TO YESTERDAY...TEMPERATURES
ARE ALSO RUNNING A FEW DEGREES COOLER THAN THIS TIME TUESDAY
AFTERNOON. MOST DESERT LOCALES WERE GENERALLY IN THE MID/UPPER 80S AS
OF 20Z...STILL ABOVE NORMAL FOR EARLY APRIL.

FORECAST CONCERNS IN THE SHORT TERM ARE PRIMARILY FOCUSED ON THE
PASSAGE OF THE UPSTREAM TROUGH ON THURSDAY. THE SYSTEM IS MOISTURE
STARVED AND PRECIP CHANCES ARE NIL...HOWEVER IN TYPICAL SPRINGTIME
FASHION THE TROUGH WILL SWEEP THROUGH AND USHER IN LOWER DEWPOINTS
AND INCREASED WINDS. GRADIENTS WILL BE TIGHTEST ACROSS
NORTHERN/EASTERN ARIZONA AND THESE AREAS WILL LIKELY SEE THE
STRONGEST WINDS...SIMILARLY STRONG DRY ADVECTION DOWN THE COLORADO
RIVER WILL ALSO PRODUCE A BRIEF PERIOD OF AFTERNOON BREEZINESS ON
THURSDAY. THAT BEING SAID...IT STILL APPEARS THAT CRITICAL FIRE
WEATHER THRESHOLDS WILL NOT BE REALIZED OVER A PROLONGED PERIOD OF
TIME AND A WIDESPREAD AREA WITH THE PASSAGE OF THIS EVENT...AND NO
FIRE WEATHER HEADLINES SEEM WARRANTED AT THIS TIME. THE TROUGH WILL
USHER IN SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES ALTHOUGH HIGHS THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY /WHILE COOLER/ WILL REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL.

FORECAST SOLNS IN THE EXTENDED REMAIN IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT
THROUGH ABOUT THE MIDDAY MONDAY TIME FRAME. LONGWAVE TROUGHING HOLDS
OVER MUCH OF THE WEST WITH EMBEDDED SHORTWAVE PASSING THROUGH THE
REGION TO OUR NORTH. AFTER MONDAY...A MORE ORGANIZED PACIFIC LOW IS
PROGGED TO DEVELOP OVER THE PACIFIC NW AND THEN EXPAND DOWN THE WEST
COAST. OUT OF THE 00Z OPERATIONS GUIDANCE...THE ECMWF SOLN IS THE
COLDEST AND DEEPEST SWEEPING THE SYSTEM THROUGH AZ AS A CUT-OFF LOW.
THE GFS/GEM SOLNS FAVOR A MORE OPEN WAVE WITH A LESSER SOUTHERN
EXTENT. ENSEMBLE SPREAD REMAINS HIGH...PARTICULARLY OVER THE
NORTHEAST PACIFIC AND OVER THE PACIFIC NW WITH THE GENESIS OF THIS
SYSTEM. TAKING A MEDIAN VALUE FORECAST OF ALL AVAILABLE TEMPERATURE
GUIDANCE ALONG WITH A HEAVY BLEND OF CONSENSUS GUIDANCE RESULTS IN
THE POSSIBILITY OF BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES DURING THE MIDDLE OF
NEXT WEEK. NORMALS FOR THIS PERIOD IN PHOENIX AND YUMA ARE 82/83 AND
84/85 DEGREES RESPECTIVELY. CONFIDENCE IS MARGINAL IN THESE FORECAST
VALUES AND EVEN LOWER IN THE TIMING AND MOVEMENT OF THE WEATHER
SYSTEM RESPONSIBLE FOR THE COOL DOWN. DESPITE THE DEPTH
DIFFERENCES...ALL SOLNS ATTM INDICATE THIS SYSTEMS WILL GNLY BE ON
THE DRIER SIDE. SOME MOISTURE MAY WORK INTO EASTERN AZ/MOGOLLON RIM
AND COULD RESULT IN SOME PRECIP ACTIVITY. SLIGHT BLEND OF (ABOUT 5
PERCENT OVER EACH 12 HR PERIOD) WAS WORKED INTO THE EXTENDED POP
GRIDS. RESULTING POPS DO NOT GENERATE ANY SENSIBLE WEATHER...BUT AT
LEAST A TREND WAS INTRODUCED FOR THE MIDDLE PARTS OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...
SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA INCLUDING KPHX...KIWA...AND
KSDL...AND SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA AND SOUTHWEST ARIZONA INCLUDING KIPL
AND KBLH...
A DRY WEATHER DISTURBANCE WILL APPROACH NORTHERN ARIZONA TODAY
RESULTING IN GUSTY AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING WEST WINDS OVER MOST OF
SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH CENTRAL ARIZONA. THROUGH 18Z WED...CLEAR SKIES.
LIGHT AND VARIABLE WIND UNDER 8 KNOTS. FROM 18Z WED THROUGH 03Z
THU...INCREASING AFTERNOON WEST WIND 10 TO 20 KNOTS...STRONGEST
AROUND 23Z. CLEAR SKIES.

A WEAK WEATHER DISTURBANCE PASSING TO THE NORTH WILL CONTINUE TO
PRODUCE GUSTY WESTERLY WINDS AT MOST...OR ALL OF THE TAF SITES
THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS BEFORE DIMINISHING LATER TONIGHT.
ANOTHER..STRONGER WEATHER SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO BRING ANOTHER PERIOD
OF GUSTY WESTERLY WINDS TO THE PHX TAF SITES...NORTHERLY WINDS TO
KBLH...AND NORTHWESTERLY WINDS TO KIPL ON THURSDAY AFTERNOON...WITH
GUSTS RISING INTO THE 20-25KT RANGE DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON. A
VERY DRY AIRMASS WILL KEEP SKIES MAINLY CLEAR THROUGH THE TAF
PERIOD...EXCEPT FOR PERIODS OF FEW-SCT HIGH CIRRUS LAYERS PASSING
OVERHEAD FROM TIME-TO-TIME.

AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDED TAFS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...A WEAK HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BUILD OVER
THE REGION FRIDAY AND SATURDAY FOR MUCH LIGHTER AFTERNOON WIND...
FOLLOWED BY MORE WEATHER DISTURBANCES AND GUSTY AFTERNOON WEST WIND
15 TO 30 MPH SUNDAY...MONDAY...AND TUESDAY. NO PRECIPITATION IS
EXPECTED THIS PERIOD. MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITIES WILL RANGE FROM 5
TO 10 PERCENT. FAIR RECOVERY IS EXPECTED OVERNIGHT. MARGINAL FIRE
WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SUNDAY AND MONDAY AFTERNOONS DUE TO
WIND AND LOW HUMIDITY.

&&

.PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AZ...NONE.
CA...NONE.
&&

$$

VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/PHOENIX

DISCUSSION...LEINS/NOLTE
AVIATION....PERCHA
FIRE WEATHER...VASQUEZ




000
FXUS65 KTWC 011653
AFDTWC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ
953 AM MST WED APR 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...DRY CONDITIONS WITH ABOVE NORMAL DAYTIME TEMPERATURES
WILL CONTINUE INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. EXPECT BREEZY CONDITIONS TODAY
AND EVEN STRONGER WINDS THURSDAY AS A WEATHER SYSTEM MOVES NORTH OF
THE AREA. MARKEDLY LESS WIND WILL OCCUR FRIDAY...THEN MAINLY
AFTERNOON BREEZINESS WILL RETURN THIS WEEKEND. NOTICEABLY COOLER
TEMPERATURES SHOULD OCCUR BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...SOME RESIDUAL MOISTURE IN THE FAR SOUTHEAST NEAR
DOUGLAS SO COULD STILL SEE A FEW CLOUD BUILDUPS OR A SHOWER AROUND
THERE. OTHERWISE...DRY CONDITIONS WITH GUSTY WINDS CAN BE EXPECTED
THIS AFTERNOON. THE TAIL END OF A SYSTEM WILL PASS THROUGH THE AREA
TOMORROW FOR EVEN STRONGER WINDS. A FIRE WEATHER WATCH REMAINS IN
EFFECT FOR THE WHITE MOUNTAINS FOR THURSDAY. CURRENT FORECAST LOOKED
ON TRACK...SO NO UPDATES NECESSARY THIS MORNING. PLEASE REFER TO THE
ADDITIONAL SECTIONS FOR MORE DETAILS.

&&

.AVIATION...VALID THRU 02/18Z.
CLEAR SKIES TO SCATTERED CLOUDS ABOVE 20K FT AGL WILL OCCUR INTO
THURSDAY MORNING. SURFACE WIND THRU MID MORNING WILL BE SLY/SWLY AT
5-15 KTS WITH GUSTS TO 20 KTS...THEN SURFACE WIND AFTER 17Z WILL BE
WLY/SWLY AT 10-20 KTS WITH GUSTS OF 20-30 KTS. SURFACE WIND AFTER
02/02Z WILL BE SLY/SWLY AT 5-15 KTS WITH GUSTS TO 20 KTS. AVIATION
DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR TAF AMENDMENTS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...A FIRE WEATHER WATCH IS IN EFFECT FROM 10 AM
THURSDAY MORNING UNTIL 8 PM MST THURSDAY EVENING FOR FIRE WEATHER
ZONE 153. THIS FIRE WEATHER WATCH ALSO INCLUDES THE EASTERN PORTION
OF FIRE WEATHER ZONE 152...OR ESSENTIALLY EAST OF A CLIFTON TO
DOUGLAS LINE. THE COMBINATION OF STRONG AND GUSTY WEST WINDS...LOW
RELATIVE HUMIDITY AND A HIGH FIRE DANGER RATING WILL LIKELY CREATE
CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS.

GUSTY WEST TO SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL PREVAIL TODAY IN ADVANCE OF A
DISTURBANCE THAT WILL MOVE NORTH OF THE AREA THURSDAY. HOWEVER...
WIND SPEEDS WILL NOT BE QUITE AS STRONG TODAY VERSUS THURSDAY.
THUS...WIDESPREAD CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE NOT EXPECTED
TO OCCUR TODAY. EXPECT SOMEWHAT LESS WIND FRIDAY....BUT MAINLY
AFTERNOON BREEZINESS WILL RETURN THIS WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...DRY CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
A SERIES OF SHORTWAVE TROUGHS WILL MOVE EWD ACROSS THE PACIFIC NW/
GREAT BASIN/NRN ROCKIES INTO THURSDAY. THESE SYSTEMS WILL PRODUCE
BREEZY CONDITIONS ACROSS MUCH OF SE ARIZONA TODAY. BREEZY TO WINDY
CONDITIONS WILL THEN OCCUR THUR IN RESPONSE TO A STRONGER SHORTWAVE
TROUGH MOVING NORTH OF THE AREA. EXPECT MARKEDLY LESS WIND FRI...
THEN MAINLY AFTERNOON BREEZINESS WILL PREVAIL SAT-MON.

THEREAFTER...THERE WERE DISTINCT DIFFERENCES BETWEEN THE 01/00Z
GFS/ECMWF REGARDING A DEVELOPING WRN CONUS UPPER TROUGH NEXT TUE.
THE ECMWF WAS CONSIDERABLY DEEPER WITH THIS SYSTEM VERSUS THE
GFS...AND DEPICTED A 547 DM LOW TO BE CENTERED OVER CENTRAL
CALIFORNIA TUE AFTERNOON. HAVE LEANED TOWARD A COMPROMISE BETWEEN
THESE SOLUTIONS...WITH THE MAIN IMPACT LIKELY BEING NOTICEABLY
COOLER TEMPS BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

FOR INSTANCE...HIGH TEMPS TODAY-SUN WILL CONTINUE TO AVERAGE ABOUT
5-10 DEGS F OR SO ABOVE NORMAL. HIGH TEMPS TUE ARE FORECAST AT THIS
TIME TO COOL TO GENERALLY WITHIN A DEGREE-OR-TWO OF NORMAL.

&&

.TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
    FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY
    EVENING FOR AZZ153 AND EASTERN AZZ152 (ESSENTIALLY EAST OF
    A CLIFTON TO DOUGLAS LINE).

&&

$$

VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...YOUTUBE...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/TUCSON





000
FXUS65 KTWC 011653
AFDTWC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ
953 AM MST WED APR 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...DRY CONDITIONS WITH ABOVE NORMAL DAYTIME TEMPERATURES
WILL CONTINUE INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. EXPECT BREEZY CONDITIONS TODAY
AND EVEN STRONGER WINDS THURSDAY AS A WEATHER SYSTEM MOVES NORTH OF
THE AREA. MARKEDLY LESS WIND WILL OCCUR FRIDAY...THEN MAINLY
AFTERNOON BREEZINESS WILL RETURN THIS WEEKEND. NOTICEABLY COOLER
TEMPERATURES SHOULD OCCUR BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...SOME RESIDUAL MOISTURE IN THE FAR SOUTHEAST NEAR
DOUGLAS SO COULD STILL SEE A FEW CLOUD BUILDUPS OR A SHOWER AROUND
THERE. OTHERWISE...DRY CONDITIONS WITH GUSTY WINDS CAN BE EXPECTED
THIS AFTERNOON. THE TAIL END OF A SYSTEM WILL PASS THROUGH THE AREA
TOMORROW FOR EVEN STRONGER WINDS. A FIRE WEATHER WATCH REMAINS IN
EFFECT FOR THE WHITE MOUNTAINS FOR THURSDAY. CURRENT FORECAST LOOKED
ON TRACK...SO NO UPDATES NECESSARY THIS MORNING. PLEASE REFER TO THE
ADDITIONAL SECTIONS FOR MORE DETAILS.

&&

.AVIATION...VALID THRU 02/18Z.
CLEAR SKIES TO SCATTERED CLOUDS ABOVE 20K FT AGL WILL OCCUR INTO
THURSDAY MORNING. SURFACE WIND THRU MID MORNING WILL BE SLY/SWLY AT
5-15 KTS WITH GUSTS TO 20 KTS...THEN SURFACE WIND AFTER 17Z WILL BE
WLY/SWLY AT 10-20 KTS WITH GUSTS OF 20-30 KTS. SURFACE WIND AFTER
02/02Z WILL BE SLY/SWLY AT 5-15 KTS WITH GUSTS TO 20 KTS. AVIATION
DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR TAF AMENDMENTS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...A FIRE WEATHER WATCH IS IN EFFECT FROM 10 AM
THURSDAY MORNING UNTIL 8 PM MST THURSDAY EVENING FOR FIRE WEATHER
ZONE 153. THIS FIRE WEATHER WATCH ALSO INCLUDES THE EASTERN PORTION
OF FIRE WEATHER ZONE 152...OR ESSENTIALLY EAST OF A CLIFTON TO
DOUGLAS LINE. THE COMBINATION OF STRONG AND GUSTY WEST WINDS...LOW
RELATIVE HUMIDITY AND A HIGH FIRE DANGER RATING WILL LIKELY CREATE
CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS.

GUSTY WEST TO SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL PREVAIL TODAY IN ADVANCE OF A
DISTURBANCE THAT WILL MOVE NORTH OF THE AREA THURSDAY. HOWEVER...
WIND SPEEDS WILL NOT BE QUITE AS STRONG TODAY VERSUS THURSDAY.
THUS...WIDESPREAD CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE NOT EXPECTED
TO OCCUR TODAY. EXPECT SOMEWHAT LESS WIND FRIDAY....BUT MAINLY
AFTERNOON BREEZINESS WILL RETURN THIS WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...DRY CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
A SERIES OF SHORTWAVE TROUGHS WILL MOVE EWD ACROSS THE PACIFIC NW/
GREAT BASIN/NRN ROCKIES INTO THURSDAY. THESE SYSTEMS WILL PRODUCE
BREEZY CONDITIONS ACROSS MUCH OF SE ARIZONA TODAY. BREEZY TO WINDY
CONDITIONS WILL THEN OCCUR THUR IN RESPONSE TO A STRONGER SHORTWAVE
TROUGH MOVING NORTH OF THE AREA. EXPECT MARKEDLY LESS WIND FRI...
THEN MAINLY AFTERNOON BREEZINESS WILL PREVAIL SAT-MON.

THEREAFTER...THERE WERE DISTINCT DIFFERENCES BETWEEN THE 01/00Z
GFS/ECMWF REGARDING A DEVELOPING WRN CONUS UPPER TROUGH NEXT TUE.
THE ECMWF WAS CONSIDERABLY DEEPER WITH THIS SYSTEM VERSUS THE
GFS...AND DEPICTED A 547 DM LOW TO BE CENTERED OVER CENTRAL
CALIFORNIA TUE AFTERNOON. HAVE LEANED TOWARD A COMPROMISE BETWEEN
THESE SOLUTIONS...WITH THE MAIN IMPACT LIKELY BEING NOTICEABLY
COOLER TEMPS BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

FOR INSTANCE...HIGH TEMPS TODAY-SUN WILL CONTINUE TO AVERAGE ABOUT
5-10 DEGS F OR SO ABOVE NORMAL. HIGH TEMPS TUE ARE FORECAST AT THIS
TIME TO COOL TO GENERALLY WITHIN A DEGREE-OR-TWO OF NORMAL.

&&

.TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
    FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY
    EVENING FOR AZZ153 AND EASTERN AZZ152 (ESSENTIALLY EAST OF
    A CLIFTON TO DOUGLAS LINE).

&&

$$

VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...YOUTUBE...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/TUCSON






000
FXUS65 KTWC 011653
AFDTWC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ
953 AM MST WED APR 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...DRY CONDITIONS WITH ABOVE NORMAL DAYTIME TEMPERATURES
WILL CONTINUE INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. EXPECT BREEZY CONDITIONS TODAY
AND EVEN STRONGER WINDS THURSDAY AS A WEATHER SYSTEM MOVES NORTH OF
THE AREA. MARKEDLY LESS WIND WILL OCCUR FRIDAY...THEN MAINLY
AFTERNOON BREEZINESS WILL RETURN THIS WEEKEND. NOTICEABLY COOLER
TEMPERATURES SHOULD OCCUR BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...SOME RESIDUAL MOISTURE IN THE FAR SOUTHEAST NEAR
DOUGLAS SO COULD STILL SEE A FEW CLOUD BUILDUPS OR A SHOWER AROUND
THERE. OTHERWISE...DRY CONDITIONS WITH GUSTY WINDS CAN BE EXPECTED
THIS AFTERNOON. THE TAIL END OF A SYSTEM WILL PASS THROUGH THE AREA
TOMORROW FOR EVEN STRONGER WINDS. A FIRE WEATHER WATCH REMAINS IN
EFFECT FOR THE WHITE MOUNTAINS FOR THURSDAY. CURRENT FORECAST LOOKED
ON TRACK...SO NO UPDATES NECESSARY THIS MORNING. PLEASE REFER TO THE
ADDITIONAL SECTIONS FOR MORE DETAILS.

&&

.AVIATION...VALID THRU 02/18Z.
CLEAR SKIES TO SCATTERED CLOUDS ABOVE 20K FT AGL WILL OCCUR INTO
THURSDAY MORNING. SURFACE WIND THRU MID MORNING WILL BE SLY/SWLY AT
5-15 KTS WITH GUSTS TO 20 KTS...THEN SURFACE WIND AFTER 17Z WILL BE
WLY/SWLY AT 10-20 KTS WITH GUSTS OF 20-30 KTS. SURFACE WIND AFTER
02/02Z WILL BE SLY/SWLY AT 5-15 KTS WITH GUSTS TO 20 KTS. AVIATION
DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR TAF AMENDMENTS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...A FIRE WEATHER WATCH IS IN EFFECT FROM 10 AM
THURSDAY MORNING UNTIL 8 PM MST THURSDAY EVENING FOR FIRE WEATHER
ZONE 153. THIS FIRE WEATHER WATCH ALSO INCLUDES THE EASTERN PORTION
OF FIRE WEATHER ZONE 152...OR ESSENTIALLY EAST OF A CLIFTON TO
DOUGLAS LINE. THE COMBINATION OF STRONG AND GUSTY WEST WINDS...LOW
RELATIVE HUMIDITY AND A HIGH FIRE DANGER RATING WILL LIKELY CREATE
CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS.

GUSTY WEST TO SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL PREVAIL TODAY IN ADVANCE OF A
DISTURBANCE THAT WILL MOVE NORTH OF THE AREA THURSDAY. HOWEVER...
WIND SPEEDS WILL NOT BE QUITE AS STRONG TODAY VERSUS THURSDAY.
THUS...WIDESPREAD CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE NOT EXPECTED
TO OCCUR TODAY. EXPECT SOMEWHAT LESS WIND FRIDAY....BUT MAINLY
AFTERNOON BREEZINESS WILL RETURN THIS WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...DRY CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
A SERIES OF SHORTWAVE TROUGHS WILL MOVE EWD ACROSS THE PACIFIC NW/
GREAT BASIN/NRN ROCKIES INTO THURSDAY. THESE SYSTEMS WILL PRODUCE
BREEZY CONDITIONS ACROSS MUCH OF SE ARIZONA TODAY. BREEZY TO WINDY
CONDITIONS WILL THEN OCCUR THUR IN RESPONSE TO A STRONGER SHORTWAVE
TROUGH MOVING NORTH OF THE AREA. EXPECT MARKEDLY LESS WIND FRI...
THEN MAINLY AFTERNOON BREEZINESS WILL PREVAIL SAT-MON.

THEREAFTER...THERE WERE DISTINCT DIFFERENCES BETWEEN THE 01/00Z
GFS/ECMWF REGARDING A DEVELOPING WRN CONUS UPPER TROUGH NEXT TUE.
THE ECMWF WAS CONSIDERABLY DEEPER WITH THIS SYSTEM VERSUS THE
GFS...AND DEPICTED A 547 DM LOW TO BE CENTERED OVER CENTRAL
CALIFORNIA TUE AFTERNOON. HAVE LEANED TOWARD A COMPROMISE BETWEEN
THESE SOLUTIONS...WITH THE MAIN IMPACT LIKELY BEING NOTICEABLY
COOLER TEMPS BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

FOR INSTANCE...HIGH TEMPS TODAY-SUN WILL CONTINUE TO AVERAGE ABOUT
5-10 DEGS F OR SO ABOVE NORMAL. HIGH TEMPS TUE ARE FORECAST AT THIS
TIME TO COOL TO GENERALLY WITHIN A DEGREE-OR-TWO OF NORMAL.

&&

.TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
    FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY
    EVENING FOR AZZ153 AND EASTERN AZZ152 (ESSENTIALLY EAST OF
    A CLIFTON TO DOUGLAS LINE).

&&

$$

VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...YOUTUBE...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/TUCSON





000
FXUS65 KTWC 011653
AFDTWC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ
953 AM MST WED APR 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...DRY CONDITIONS WITH ABOVE NORMAL DAYTIME TEMPERATURES
WILL CONTINUE INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. EXPECT BREEZY CONDITIONS TODAY
AND EVEN STRONGER WINDS THURSDAY AS A WEATHER SYSTEM MOVES NORTH OF
THE AREA. MARKEDLY LESS WIND WILL OCCUR FRIDAY...THEN MAINLY
AFTERNOON BREEZINESS WILL RETURN THIS WEEKEND. NOTICEABLY COOLER
TEMPERATURES SHOULD OCCUR BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...SOME RESIDUAL MOISTURE IN THE FAR SOUTHEAST NEAR
DOUGLAS SO COULD STILL SEE A FEW CLOUD BUILDUPS OR A SHOWER AROUND
THERE. OTHERWISE...DRY CONDITIONS WITH GUSTY WINDS CAN BE EXPECTED
THIS AFTERNOON. THE TAIL END OF A SYSTEM WILL PASS THROUGH THE AREA
TOMORROW FOR EVEN STRONGER WINDS. A FIRE WEATHER WATCH REMAINS IN
EFFECT FOR THE WHITE MOUNTAINS FOR THURSDAY. CURRENT FORECAST LOOKED
ON TRACK...SO NO UPDATES NECESSARY THIS MORNING. PLEASE REFER TO THE
ADDITIONAL SECTIONS FOR MORE DETAILS.

&&

.AVIATION...VALID THRU 02/18Z.
CLEAR SKIES TO SCATTERED CLOUDS ABOVE 20K FT AGL WILL OCCUR INTO
THURSDAY MORNING. SURFACE WIND THRU MID MORNING WILL BE SLY/SWLY AT
5-15 KTS WITH GUSTS TO 20 KTS...THEN SURFACE WIND AFTER 17Z WILL BE
WLY/SWLY AT 10-20 KTS WITH GUSTS OF 20-30 KTS. SURFACE WIND AFTER
02/02Z WILL BE SLY/SWLY AT 5-15 KTS WITH GUSTS TO 20 KTS. AVIATION
DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR TAF AMENDMENTS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...A FIRE WEATHER WATCH IS IN EFFECT FROM 10 AM
THURSDAY MORNING UNTIL 8 PM MST THURSDAY EVENING FOR FIRE WEATHER
ZONE 153. THIS FIRE WEATHER WATCH ALSO INCLUDES THE EASTERN PORTION
OF FIRE WEATHER ZONE 152...OR ESSENTIALLY EAST OF A CLIFTON TO
DOUGLAS LINE. THE COMBINATION OF STRONG AND GUSTY WEST WINDS...LOW
RELATIVE HUMIDITY AND A HIGH FIRE DANGER RATING WILL LIKELY CREATE
CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS.

GUSTY WEST TO SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL PREVAIL TODAY IN ADVANCE OF A
DISTURBANCE THAT WILL MOVE NORTH OF THE AREA THURSDAY. HOWEVER...
WIND SPEEDS WILL NOT BE QUITE AS STRONG TODAY VERSUS THURSDAY.
THUS...WIDESPREAD CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE NOT EXPECTED
TO OCCUR TODAY. EXPECT SOMEWHAT LESS WIND FRIDAY....BUT MAINLY
AFTERNOON BREEZINESS WILL RETURN THIS WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...DRY CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
A SERIES OF SHORTWAVE TROUGHS WILL MOVE EWD ACROSS THE PACIFIC NW/
GREAT BASIN/NRN ROCKIES INTO THURSDAY. THESE SYSTEMS WILL PRODUCE
BREEZY CONDITIONS ACROSS MUCH OF SE ARIZONA TODAY. BREEZY TO WINDY
CONDITIONS WILL THEN OCCUR THUR IN RESPONSE TO A STRONGER SHORTWAVE
TROUGH MOVING NORTH OF THE AREA. EXPECT MARKEDLY LESS WIND FRI...
THEN MAINLY AFTERNOON BREEZINESS WILL PREVAIL SAT-MON.

THEREAFTER...THERE WERE DISTINCT DIFFERENCES BETWEEN THE 01/00Z
GFS/ECMWF REGARDING A DEVELOPING WRN CONUS UPPER TROUGH NEXT TUE.
THE ECMWF WAS CONSIDERABLY DEEPER WITH THIS SYSTEM VERSUS THE
GFS...AND DEPICTED A 547 DM LOW TO BE CENTERED OVER CENTRAL
CALIFORNIA TUE AFTERNOON. HAVE LEANED TOWARD A COMPROMISE BETWEEN
THESE SOLUTIONS...WITH THE MAIN IMPACT LIKELY BEING NOTICEABLY
COOLER TEMPS BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

FOR INSTANCE...HIGH TEMPS TODAY-SUN WILL CONTINUE TO AVERAGE ABOUT
5-10 DEGS F OR SO ABOVE NORMAL. HIGH TEMPS TUE ARE FORECAST AT THIS
TIME TO COOL TO GENERALLY WITHIN A DEGREE-OR-TWO OF NORMAL.

&&

.TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
    FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY
    EVENING FOR AZZ153 AND EASTERN AZZ152 (ESSENTIALLY EAST OF
    A CLIFTON TO DOUGLAS LINE).

&&

$$

VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...YOUTUBE...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/TUCSON






000
FXUS65 KFGZ 011643
AFDFGZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ
943 AM MST WED APR 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LOOK FOR DRY WEATHER TO CONTINUE THROUGH NEXT TUESDAY. DAYTIME
TEMPERATURES WILL BEGIN A SLIGHT COOLING TREND OVER THE NEXT FEW
DAYS. GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED TODAY AND THURSDAY AND
POSSIBLY AGAIN SUNDAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
TODAY FORECAST OF INCREASINGLY GUSTY CONDITIONS REMAINS ON TRACK.
MAIN FOCUS OF THE AFTERNOON FORECAST PACKAGE AND ASSOCIATED
UPDATES OR NEW WIND/FIRE-WX HEADLINES FOR THURSDAY.

&&

.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION /330 AM MST/...
EXPECT DRY WEATHER ACROSS NORTHERN ARIZONA THROUGH NEXT TUESDAY.

WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT THIS MORNING HAS BROUGHT MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES TO
NORTHERN AZ. SW SFC WINDS HAVE BEEN BLOWING ALL NIGHT AS A DRY
SFC FRONT MOVES SWRD THROUGH THE GREAT BASIN. THIS FRONT TO HANG
UP IN SRN UTAH TODAY THEN MOVE THROUGH NORTHERN AZ THURSDAY
AFTERNOON. WE SHOULD EXPECT SW WIND GUSTS IN THE 25-35 MPH RANGE
TODAY AND 35 TO 45 MPH RANGE THURSDAY. THE FASTEST WINDS TO BE
ALONG AND NORTH OF THE MOGOLLON RIM. WINDS TONIGHT SHOULD AGAIN BE
UP AND MIN TEMPS FOR THURSDAY MORNING WERE RAISED SEVERAL DEGREES.
SFC WINDS TO BECOME WEST NORTHWEST WITH DECREASING SPEEDS LATE
THURSDAY AFTERNOON ACROSS COCONINO AND YAVAPAI COUNTIES BUT REMAIN
GUSTY IN APACHE COUNTY THROUGH SUNSET. LOOK FOR FAIR WEATHER
FRIDAY WITH BREEZY EAST WINDS.

FOR SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY... SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW SHOULD INCREASE
HERE AS A TROUGH MOVES INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. BREEZY TO WINDY
CONDITIONS LOOKS LIKELY WITH THE FASTEST SPEEDS ON SUNDAY...WINDS
FROM THE SW GUSTING 35 TO 45 MPH.

&&

.AVIATION...
FOR THE 18Z PACKAGE...VFR CONDITIONS CONTINUE TODAY UNDER
SCATTERED HIGH CLOUDS. EXPECT INCREASING SOUTHWEST TO WEST WINDS
BECOMING 10-20 KTS GUSTING 20-30 KTS THROUGH SUNSET. AFTER
02Z...WINDS GENERALLY SW 5-15 KT BUT LOCAL GUSTS TO 30 KTS
POSSIBLE DOWN WIND OF TERRAIN FEATURES. AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT
UPDATED FOR TAF AMENDMENTS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
EXPECT INCREASING WINDS THIS AFTERNOON AND THURSDAY AS A DRY
WEATHER SYSTEMS MOVES ACROSS ARIZONA. ON THURSDAY STRONGER WINDS
ALONG WITH LOW HUMIDITY WILL LIKELY BRING CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER
CONDITIONS TO PORTIONS OF NORTHEASTERN ARIZONA. A FIRE WEATHER
WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FROM THE MOGOLLON RIM NORTH TO THE UTAH
BORDER REGION.

FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...WIND SPEEDS WILL WEAKEN ON FRIDAY BEFORE
ANOTHER WEATHER SYSTEM BRINGS DRY AND WINDY CONDITIONS OVER THE
WEEKEND. CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS LOOK LIKELY, ESPECIALLY
ON SUNDAY.

&&

.FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY
EVENING FOR AZZ109>114-116-117-139-140.

&&

$$

PUBLIC.........KD/DL
AVIATION.......MCS
FIRE WEATHER...MCS/MCCOLLUM

FOR NORTHERN ARIZONA WEATHER INFORMATION VISIT
WEATHER.GOV/FLAGSTAFF







000
FXUS65 KFGZ 011643
AFDFGZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ
943 AM MST WED APR 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LOOK FOR DRY WEATHER TO CONTINUE THROUGH NEXT TUESDAY. DAYTIME
TEMPERATURES WILL BEGIN A SLIGHT COOLING TREND OVER THE NEXT FEW
DAYS. GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED TODAY AND THURSDAY AND
POSSIBLY AGAIN SUNDAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
TODAY FORECAST OF INCREASINGLY GUSTY CONDITIONS REMAINS ON TRACK.
MAIN FOCUS OF THE AFTERNOON FORECAST PACKAGE AND ASSOCIATED
UPDATES OR NEW WIND/FIRE-WX HEADLINES FOR THURSDAY.

&&

.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION /330 AM MST/...
EXPECT DRY WEATHER ACROSS NORTHERN ARIZONA THROUGH NEXT TUESDAY.

WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT THIS MORNING HAS BROUGHT MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES TO
NORTHERN AZ. SW SFC WINDS HAVE BEEN BLOWING ALL NIGHT AS A DRY
SFC FRONT MOVES SWRD THROUGH THE GREAT BASIN. THIS FRONT TO HANG
UP IN SRN UTAH TODAY THEN MOVE THROUGH NORTHERN AZ THURSDAY
AFTERNOON. WE SHOULD EXPECT SW WIND GUSTS IN THE 25-35 MPH RANGE
TODAY AND 35 TO 45 MPH RANGE THURSDAY. THE FASTEST WINDS TO BE
ALONG AND NORTH OF THE MOGOLLON RIM. WINDS TONIGHT SHOULD AGAIN BE
UP AND MIN TEMPS FOR THURSDAY MORNING WERE RAISED SEVERAL DEGREES.
SFC WINDS TO BECOME WEST NORTHWEST WITH DECREASING SPEEDS LATE
THURSDAY AFTERNOON ACROSS COCONINO AND YAVAPAI COUNTIES BUT REMAIN
GUSTY IN APACHE COUNTY THROUGH SUNSET. LOOK FOR FAIR WEATHER
FRIDAY WITH BREEZY EAST WINDS.

FOR SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY... SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW SHOULD INCREASE
HERE AS A TROUGH MOVES INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. BREEZY TO WINDY
CONDITIONS LOOKS LIKELY WITH THE FASTEST SPEEDS ON SUNDAY...WINDS
FROM THE SW GUSTING 35 TO 45 MPH.

&&

.AVIATION...
FOR THE 18Z PACKAGE...VFR CONDITIONS CONTINUE TODAY UNDER
SCATTERED HIGH CLOUDS. EXPECT INCREASING SOUTHWEST TO WEST WINDS
BECOMING 10-20 KTS GUSTING 20-30 KTS THROUGH SUNSET. AFTER
02Z...WINDS GENERALLY SW 5-15 KT BUT LOCAL GUSTS TO 30 KTS
POSSIBLE DOWN WIND OF TERRAIN FEATURES. AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT
UPDATED FOR TAF AMENDMENTS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
EXPECT INCREASING WINDS THIS AFTERNOON AND THURSDAY AS A DRY
WEATHER SYSTEMS MOVES ACROSS ARIZONA. ON THURSDAY STRONGER WINDS
ALONG WITH LOW HUMIDITY WILL LIKELY BRING CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER
CONDITIONS TO PORTIONS OF NORTHEASTERN ARIZONA. A FIRE WEATHER
WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FROM THE MOGOLLON RIM NORTH TO THE UTAH
BORDER REGION.

FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...WIND SPEEDS WILL WEAKEN ON FRIDAY BEFORE
ANOTHER WEATHER SYSTEM BRINGS DRY AND WINDY CONDITIONS OVER THE
WEEKEND. CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS LOOK LIKELY, ESPECIALLY
ON SUNDAY.

&&

.FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY
EVENING FOR AZZ109>114-116-117-139-140.

&&

$$

PUBLIC.........KD/DL
AVIATION.......MCS
FIRE WEATHER...MCS/MCCOLLUM

FOR NORTHERN ARIZONA WEATHER INFORMATION VISIT
WEATHER.GOV/FLAGSTAFF








000
FXUS65 KPSR 011552
AFDPSR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PHOENIX AZ
852 AM MST WED APR 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A DRY WEATHER SYSTEM WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION FROM THE GREAT BASIN
LATE TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...USHERING IN COOLER TEMPERATURES AND
INCREASING WINDS. DRY CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN THROUGH THE WEEKEND
WITH CONTINUED ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WITH DAYTIME HIGHS IN THE
UPPER 80S TO LOW 90S. AN ACTIVE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN WILL LINGER OVER
THE WEST INTO NEXT WEEK...RESULTING IN NEAR OR POSSIBLY EVEN BELOW
NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR OUR AFTERNOONS AND MILD MORNINGS.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
ZONAL FLOW PERSISTS ACROSS THE REGION THIS MORNING AS YESTERDAY`S
UPPER LOW HAS SHIFTED INTO THE MIDWEST...MEANWHILE TOMORROW`S
SHORTWAVE IS MAKING ITS WAY THROUGH NORTHERN CALIFORNIA. FOLLOWING
ANOTHER MILD MORNING ACROSS THE REGION...MID MORNING TEMPERATURES
WERE ALREADY IN THE MID 70S ACROSS THE LOWER DESERTS AS OF 1550Z.

THE FORECAST IS RELATIVELY STRAIGHTFORWARD TODAY...SUNNY SKIES AND
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES. BIAS CORRECTED CONSENSUS GUIDANCE SUGGESTS
A SLIGHTLY COOLER TODAY TODAY...BUT STILL LOOKING AT DESERT HIGHS IN
THE UPPER 80S/LOWER 90S. INHERITED FORECAST WAS ON THE MARK AND ONLY
VERY MINOR CHANGES WERE MADE.

&&

.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
MULTIPLE SHORTWAVE AND LOW FEATURES DOT THE NORTH PACIFIC UPSTREAM
AND WILL GENERATE A MORE PROGRESSIVE FLOW PATTERN OVER THE WESTERN
CONUS FOR THE NEXT WEEK OR SO. THE NEXT SHORTWAVE OF INTEREST THAT
WILL IMPACT THE SOUTHWEST STATES IS RIGHT OVER NORTHERN B.C. AND THE
ALEXANDER ARCHIPELAGO IN SE ALASKA...WITH HEIGHTS STRETCHING BACK OUT
OVER THE PACIFIC NEAR 40N/135W. THIS SYSTEM WILL EXPAND SOUTHWARD AND
MOVE ON-SHORE OVER CALIFORNIA AND INTO THE SOUTHERN GREAT BASIN LATER
TODAY AND INTO THURSDAY...DRAWING FURTHER AIRMASS DRYING AND MILD CAA
DOWN INTO THE SOUTHWEST STATES.

UL JET ORIENTATION AND SPEED AMPLIFICATION ALONG WITH POCKETS OF
DEEPER MIXING REALLY TARGET NE AZ/FOUR CORNERS REGION FOR THE
STRONGEST WINDS AND LIKELY AREAS OF CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS
FOR THIS EVENT. NORTHERLY WINDS ACROSS SE CA AND LOWER CO RIVER
VALLEY 15 TO 25 MPH WITH GUSTS 30-35 MPH WILL RESULT AS THE
SHORTWAVE BRUSHES BY TO OUR NORTH. WINDS BACK ACROSS THE LOWER AZ
DESERTS WILL RANGE IN THE 10 TO 20 MPH RANGE. AIRMASS DRYING WILL
DROP SFC DEWPOINTS INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS AND 10S BY THURSDAY
AFTN...WITH RELATIVE HUMIDITIES IN THE SINGLE DIGITS AS WELL.
MARGINAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE STILL POSSIBLE THURSDAY IN
LOCALIZED POCKETS...HOWEVER FORECASTED WIND SPEEDS ARE STILL UNDER
CRITICAL THRESHOLDS. LATE WEEK TEMPERATURES WILL COOL INTO THE
MID/UPPER 80S...WITH A SLIGHT REBOUND INTO THE LOWER 90S EXPECTED
THROUGH THE EASTER WEEKEND AS FLOW ALOFT BECOMES SOUTHWESTERLY AND
USHERS IN WARMER AIR FROM OFF THE EAST CENTRAL PACIFIC.

FORECAST SOLNS IN THE EXTENDED REMAIN IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT
THROUGH ABOUT THE MIDDAY MONDAY TIME FRAME. LONGWAVE TROUGHING HOLDS
OVER MUCH OF THE WEST WITH EMBEDDED SHORTWAVE PASSING THROUGH THE
REGION TO OUR NORTH. AFTER MONDAY...A MORE ORGANIZED PACIFIC LOW IS
PROGGED TO DEVELOP OVER THE PACIFIC NW AND THEN EXPAND DOWN THE WEST
COAST. OUT OF THE 00Z OPERATIONS GUIDANCE...THE ECMWF SOLN IS THE
COLDEST AND DEEPEST SWEEPING THE SYSTEM THROUGH AZ AS A CUT-OFF LOW.
THE GFS/GEM SOLNS FAVOR A MORE OPEN WAVE WITH A LESSER SOUTHERN
EXTENT. ENSEMBLE SPREAD REMAINS HIGH...PARTICULARLY OVER THE
NORTHEAST PACIFIC AND OVER THE PACIFIC NW WITH THE GENESIS OF THIS
SYSTEM. TAKING A MEDIAN VALUE FORECAST OF ALL AVAILABLE TEMPERATURE
GUIDANCE ALONG WITH A HEAVY BLEND OF CONSENSUS GUIDANCE RESULTS IN
THE POSSIBILITY OF BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES DURING THE MIDDLE OF
NEXT WEEK. NORMALS FOR THIS PERIOD IN PHOENIX AND YUMA ARE 82/83 AND
84/85 DEGREES RESPECTIVELY. CONFIDENCE IS MARGINAL IN THESE FORECAST
VALUES AND EVEN LOWER IN THE TIMING AND MOVEMENT OF THE WEATHER
SYSTEM RESPONSIBLE FOR THE COOL DOWN. DESPITE THE DEPTH
DIFFERENCES...ALL SOLNS ATTM INDICATE THIS SYSTEMS WILL GNLY BE ON
THE DRIER SIDE. SOME MOISTURE MAY WORK INTO EASTERN AZ/MOGOLLON RIM
AND COULD RESULT IN SOME PRECIP ACTIVITY. SLIGHT BLEND OF (ABOUT 5
PERCENT OVER EACH 12 HR PERIOD) WAS WORKED INTO THE EXTENDED POP
GRIDS. RESULTING POPS DO NOT GENERATE ANY SENSIBLE WEATHER...BUT AT
LEAST A TREND WAS INTRODUCED FOR THE MIDDLE PARTS OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION... SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA INCLUDING KPHX...KIWA...AND
KSDL...AND SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA AND SOUTHWEST ARIZONA INCLUDING KIPL
AND KBLH...

A DRY WEATHER DISTURBANCE WILL APPROACH NORTHERN ARIZONA TODAY
RESULTING IN GUSTY AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING WEST WINDS OVER MOST OF
SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH CENTRAL ARIZONA. THROUGH 18Z WED...CLEAR SKIES.
LIGHT AND VARIABLE WIND UNDER 8 KNOTS. FROM 18Z WED THROUGH 03Z
THU...INCREASING AFTERNOON WEST WIND 10 TO 20 KNOTS...STRONGEST
AROUND 23Z. CLEAR SKIES.

AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDED TAFS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...A WEAK HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BUILD OVER
THE REGION FRIDAY AND SATURDAY FOR MUCH LIGHTER AFTERNOON WIND...
FOLLOWED BY MORE WEATHER DISTURBANCES AND GUSTY AFTERNOON WEST WIND
15 TO 30 MPH SUNDAY...MONDAY...AND TUESDAY. NO PRECIPITATION IS
EXPECTED THIS PERIOD. MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITIES WILL RANGE FROM 5
TO 10 PERCENT. FAIR RECOVERY IS EXPECTED OVERNIGHT. MARGINAL FIRE
WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SUNDAY AND MONDAY AFTERNOONS DUE TO
WIND AND LOW HUMIDITY.

&&

.PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AZ...NONE.
CA...NONE.
&&

$$

VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/PHOENIX

DISCUSSION...LEINS/NOLTE
AVIATION....VASQUEZ
FIRE WEATHER...VASQUEZ




000
FXUS65 KPSR 011552
AFDPSR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PHOENIX AZ
852 AM MST WED APR 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A DRY WEATHER SYSTEM WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION FROM THE GREAT BASIN
LATE TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...USHERING IN COOLER TEMPERATURES AND
INCREASING WINDS. DRY CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN THROUGH THE WEEKEND
WITH CONTINUED ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WITH DAYTIME HIGHS IN THE
UPPER 80S TO LOW 90S. AN ACTIVE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN WILL LINGER OVER
THE WEST INTO NEXT WEEK...RESULTING IN NEAR OR POSSIBLY EVEN BELOW
NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR OUR AFTERNOONS AND MILD MORNINGS.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
ZONAL FLOW PERSISTS ACROSS THE REGION THIS MORNING AS YESTERDAY`S
UPPER LOW HAS SHIFTED INTO THE MIDWEST...MEANWHILE TOMORROW`S
SHORTWAVE IS MAKING ITS WAY THROUGH NORTHERN CALIFORNIA. FOLLOWING
ANOTHER MILD MORNING ACROSS THE REGION...MID MORNING TEMPERATURES
WERE ALREADY IN THE MID 70S ACROSS THE LOWER DESERTS AS OF 1550Z.

THE FORECAST IS RELATIVELY STRAIGHTFORWARD TODAY...SUNNY SKIES AND
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES. BIAS CORRECTED CONSENSUS GUIDANCE SUGGESTS
A SLIGHTLY COOLER TODAY TODAY...BUT STILL LOOKING AT DESERT HIGHS IN
THE UPPER 80S/LOWER 90S. INHERITED FORECAST WAS ON THE MARK AND ONLY
VERY MINOR CHANGES WERE MADE.

&&

.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
MULTIPLE SHORTWAVE AND LOW FEATURES DOT THE NORTH PACIFIC UPSTREAM
AND WILL GENERATE A MORE PROGRESSIVE FLOW PATTERN OVER THE WESTERN
CONUS FOR THE NEXT WEEK OR SO. THE NEXT SHORTWAVE OF INTEREST THAT
WILL IMPACT THE SOUTHWEST STATES IS RIGHT OVER NORTHERN B.C. AND THE
ALEXANDER ARCHIPELAGO IN SE ALASKA...WITH HEIGHTS STRETCHING BACK OUT
OVER THE PACIFIC NEAR 40N/135W. THIS SYSTEM WILL EXPAND SOUTHWARD AND
MOVE ON-SHORE OVER CALIFORNIA AND INTO THE SOUTHERN GREAT BASIN LATER
TODAY AND INTO THURSDAY...DRAWING FURTHER AIRMASS DRYING AND MILD CAA
DOWN INTO THE SOUTHWEST STATES.

UL JET ORIENTATION AND SPEED AMPLIFICATION ALONG WITH POCKETS OF
DEEPER MIXING REALLY TARGET NE AZ/FOUR CORNERS REGION FOR THE
STRONGEST WINDS AND LIKELY AREAS OF CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS
FOR THIS EVENT. NORTHERLY WINDS ACROSS SE CA AND LOWER CO RIVER
VALLEY 15 TO 25 MPH WITH GUSTS 30-35 MPH WILL RESULT AS THE
SHORTWAVE BRUSHES BY TO OUR NORTH. WINDS BACK ACROSS THE LOWER AZ
DESERTS WILL RANGE IN THE 10 TO 20 MPH RANGE. AIRMASS DRYING WILL
DROP SFC DEWPOINTS INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS AND 10S BY THURSDAY
AFTN...WITH RELATIVE HUMIDITIES IN THE SINGLE DIGITS AS WELL.
MARGINAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE STILL POSSIBLE THURSDAY IN
LOCALIZED POCKETS...HOWEVER FORECASTED WIND SPEEDS ARE STILL UNDER
CRITICAL THRESHOLDS. LATE WEEK TEMPERATURES WILL COOL INTO THE
MID/UPPER 80S...WITH A SLIGHT REBOUND INTO THE LOWER 90S EXPECTED
THROUGH THE EASTER WEEKEND AS FLOW ALOFT BECOMES SOUTHWESTERLY AND
USHERS IN WARMER AIR FROM OFF THE EAST CENTRAL PACIFIC.

FORECAST SOLNS IN THE EXTENDED REMAIN IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT
THROUGH ABOUT THE MIDDAY MONDAY TIME FRAME. LONGWAVE TROUGHING HOLDS
OVER MUCH OF THE WEST WITH EMBEDDED SHORTWAVE PASSING THROUGH THE
REGION TO OUR NORTH. AFTER MONDAY...A MORE ORGANIZED PACIFIC LOW IS
PROGGED TO DEVELOP OVER THE PACIFIC NW AND THEN EXPAND DOWN THE WEST
COAST. OUT OF THE 00Z OPERATIONS GUIDANCE...THE ECMWF SOLN IS THE
COLDEST AND DEEPEST SWEEPING THE SYSTEM THROUGH AZ AS A CUT-OFF LOW.
THE GFS/GEM SOLNS FAVOR A MORE OPEN WAVE WITH A LESSER SOUTHERN
EXTENT. ENSEMBLE SPREAD REMAINS HIGH...PARTICULARLY OVER THE
NORTHEAST PACIFIC AND OVER THE PACIFIC NW WITH THE GENESIS OF THIS
SYSTEM. TAKING A MEDIAN VALUE FORECAST OF ALL AVAILABLE TEMPERATURE
GUIDANCE ALONG WITH A HEAVY BLEND OF CONSENSUS GUIDANCE RESULTS IN
THE POSSIBILITY OF BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES DURING THE MIDDLE OF
NEXT WEEK. NORMALS FOR THIS PERIOD IN PHOENIX AND YUMA ARE 82/83 AND
84/85 DEGREES RESPECTIVELY. CONFIDENCE IS MARGINAL IN THESE FORECAST
VALUES AND EVEN LOWER IN THE TIMING AND MOVEMENT OF THE WEATHER
SYSTEM RESPONSIBLE FOR THE COOL DOWN. DESPITE THE DEPTH
DIFFERENCES...ALL SOLNS ATTM INDICATE THIS SYSTEMS WILL GNLY BE ON
THE DRIER SIDE. SOME MOISTURE MAY WORK INTO EASTERN AZ/MOGOLLON RIM
AND COULD RESULT IN SOME PRECIP ACTIVITY. SLIGHT BLEND OF (ABOUT 5
PERCENT OVER EACH 12 HR PERIOD) WAS WORKED INTO THE EXTENDED POP
GRIDS. RESULTING POPS DO NOT GENERATE ANY SENSIBLE WEATHER...BUT AT
LEAST A TREND WAS INTRODUCED FOR THE MIDDLE PARTS OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION... SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA INCLUDING KPHX...KIWA...AND
KSDL...AND SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA AND SOUTHWEST ARIZONA INCLUDING KIPL
AND KBLH...

A DRY WEATHER DISTURBANCE WILL APPROACH NORTHERN ARIZONA TODAY
RESULTING IN GUSTY AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING WEST WINDS OVER MOST OF
SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH CENTRAL ARIZONA. THROUGH 18Z WED...CLEAR SKIES.
LIGHT AND VARIABLE WIND UNDER 8 KNOTS. FROM 18Z WED THROUGH 03Z
THU...INCREASING AFTERNOON WEST WIND 10 TO 20 KNOTS...STRONGEST
AROUND 23Z. CLEAR SKIES.

AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDED TAFS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...A WEAK HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BUILD OVER
THE REGION FRIDAY AND SATURDAY FOR MUCH LIGHTER AFTERNOON WIND...
FOLLOWED BY MORE WEATHER DISTURBANCES AND GUSTY AFTERNOON WEST WIND
15 TO 30 MPH SUNDAY...MONDAY...AND TUESDAY. NO PRECIPITATION IS
EXPECTED THIS PERIOD. MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITIES WILL RANGE FROM 5
TO 10 PERCENT. FAIR RECOVERY IS EXPECTED OVERNIGHT. MARGINAL FIRE
WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SUNDAY AND MONDAY AFTERNOONS DUE TO
WIND AND LOW HUMIDITY.

&&

.PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AZ...NONE.
CA...NONE.
&&

$$

VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/PHOENIX

DISCUSSION...LEINS/NOLTE
AVIATION....VASQUEZ
FIRE WEATHER...VASQUEZ




000
FXUS65 KPSR 011552
AFDPSR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PHOENIX AZ
852 AM MST WED APR 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A DRY WEATHER SYSTEM WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION FROM THE GREAT BASIN
LATE TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...USHERING IN COOLER TEMPERATURES AND
INCREASING WINDS. DRY CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN THROUGH THE WEEKEND
WITH CONTINUED ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WITH DAYTIME HIGHS IN THE
UPPER 80S TO LOW 90S. AN ACTIVE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN WILL LINGER OVER
THE WEST INTO NEXT WEEK...RESULTING IN NEAR OR POSSIBLY EVEN BELOW
NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR OUR AFTERNOONS AND MILD MORNINGS.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
ZONAL FLOW PERSISTS ACROSS THE REGION THIS MORNING AS YESTERDAY`S
UPPER LOW HAS SHIFTED INTO THE MIDWEST...MEANWHILE TOMORROW`S
SHORTWAVE IS MAKING ITS WAY THROUGH NORTHERN CALIFORNIA. FOLLOWING
ANOTHER MILD MORNING ACROSS THE REGION...MID MORNING TEMPERATURES
WERE ALREADY IN THE MID 70S ACROSS THE LOWER DESERTS AS OF 1550Z.

THE FORECAST IS RELATIVELY STRAIGHTFORWARD TODAY...SUNNY SKIES AND
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES. BIAS CORRECTED CONSENSUS GUIDANCE SUGGESTS
A SLIGHTLY COOLER TODAY TODAY...BUT STILL LOOKING AT DESERT HIGHS IN
THE UPPER 80S/LOWER 90S. INHERITED FORECAST WAS ON THE MARK AND ONLY
VERY MINOR CHANGES WERE MADE.

&&

.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
MULTIPLE SHORTWAVE AND LOW FEATURES DOT THE NORTH PACIFIC UPSTREAM
AND WILL GENERATE A MORE PROGRESSIVE FLOW PATTERN OVER THE WESTERN
CONUS FOR THE NEXT WEEK OR SO. THE NEXT SHORTWAVE OF INTEREST THAT
WILL IMPACT THE SOUTHWEST STATES IS RIGHT OVER NORTHERN B.C. AND THE
ALEXANDER ARCHIPELAGO IN SE ALASKA...WITH HEIGHTS STRETCHING BACK OUT
OVER THE PACIFIC NEAR 40N/135W. THIS SYSTEM WILL EXPAND SOUTHWARD AND
MOVE ON-SHORE OVER CALIFORNIA AND INTO THE SOUTHERN GREAT BASIN LATER
TODAY AND INTO THURSDAY...DRAWING FURTHER AIRMASS DRYING AND MILD CAA
DOWN INTO THE SOUTHWEST STATES.

UL JET ORIENTATION AND SPEED AMPLIFICATION ALONG WITH POCKETS OF
DEEPER MIXING REALLY TARGET NE AZ/FOUR CORNERS REGION FOR THE
STRONGEST WINDS AND LIKELY AREAS OF CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS
FOR THIS EVENT. NORTHERLY WINDS ACROSS SE CA AND LOWER CO RIVER
VALLEY 15 TO 25 MPH WITH GUSTS 30-35 MPH WILL RESULT AS THE
SHORTWAVE BRUSHES BY TO OUR NORTH. WINDS BACK ACROSS THE LOWER AZ
DESERTS WILL RANGE IN THE 10 TO 20 MPH RANGE. AIRMASS DRYING WILL
DROP SFC DEWPOINTS INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS AND 10S BY THURSDAY
AFTN...WITH RELATIVE HUMIDITIES IN THE SINGLE DIGITS AS WELL.
MARGINAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE STILL POSSIBLE THURSDAY IN
LOCALIZED POCKETS...HOWEVER FORECASTED WIND SPEEDS ARE STILL UNDER
CRITICAL THRESHOLDS. LATE WEEK TEMPERATURES WILL COOL INTO THE
MID/UPPER 80S...WITH A SLIGHT REBOUND INTO THE LOWER 90S EXPECTED
THROUGH THE EASTER WEEKEND AS FLOW ALOFT BECOMES SOUTHWESTERLY AND
USHERS IN WARMER AIR FROM OFF THE EAST CENTRAL PACIFIC.

FORECAST SOLNS IN THE EXTENDED REMAIN IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT
THROUGH ABOUT THE MIDDAY MONDAY TIME FRAME. LONGWAVE TROUGHING HOLDS
OVER MUCH OF THE WEST WITH EMBEDDED SHORTWAVE PASSING THROUGH THE
REGION TO OUR NORTH. AFTER MONDAY...A MORE ORGANIZED PACIFIC LOW IS
PROGGED TO DEVELOP OVER THE PACIFIC NW AND THEN EXPAND DOWN THE WEST
COAST. OUT OF THE 00Z OPERATIONS GUIDANCE...THE ECMWF SOLN IS THE
COLDEST AND DEEPEST SWEEPING THE SYSTEM THROUGH AZ AS A CUT-OFF LOW.
THE GFS/GEM SOLNS FAVOR A MORE OPEN WAVE WITH A LESSER SOUTHERN
EXTENT. ENSEMBLE SPREAD REMAINS HIGH...PARTICULARLY OVER THE
NORTHEAST PACIFIC AND OVER THE PACIFIC NW WITH THE GENESIS OF THIS
SYSTEM. TAKING A MEDIAN VALUE FORECAST OF ALL AVAILABLE TEMPERATURE
GUIDANCE ALONG WITH A HEAVY BLEND OF CONSENSUS GUIDANCE RESULTS IN
THE POSSIBILITY OF BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES DURING THE MIDDLE OF
NEXT WEEK. NORMALS FOR THIS PERIOD IN PHOENIX AND YUMA ARE 82/83 AND
84/85 DEGREES RESPECTIVELY. CONFIDENCE IS MARGINAL IN THESE FORECAST
VALUES AND EVEN LOWER IN THE TIMING AND MOVEMENT OF THE WEATHER
SYSTEM RESPONSIBLE FOR THE COOL DOWN. DESPITE THE DEPTH
DIFFERENCES...ALL SOLNS ATTM INDICATE THIS SYSTEMS WILL GNLY BE ON
THE DRIER SIDE. SOME MOISTURE MAY WORK INTO EASTERN AZ/MOGOLLON RIM
AND COULD RESULT IN SOME PRECIP ACTIVITY. SLIGHT BLEND OF (ABOUT 5
PERCENT OVER EACH 12 HR PERIOD) WAS WORKED INTO THE EXTENDED POP
GRIDS. RESULTING POPS DO NOT GENERATE ANY SENSIBLE WEATHER...BUT AT
LEAST A TREND WAS INTRODUCED FOR THE MIDDLE PARTS OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION... SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA INCLUDING KPHX...KIWA...AND
KSDL...AND SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA AND SOUTHWEST ARIZONA INCLUDING KIPL
AND KBLH...

A DRY WEATHER DISTURBANCE WILL APPROACH NORTHERN ARIZONA TODAY
RESULTING IN GUSTY AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING WEST WINDS OVER MOST OF
SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH CENTRAL ARIZONA. THROUGH 18Z WED...CLEAR SKIES.
LIGHT AND VARIABLE WIND UNDER 8 KNOTS. FROM 18Z WED THROUGH 03Z
THU...INCREASING AFTERNOON WEST WIND 10 TO 20 KNOTS...STRONGEST
AROUND 23Z. CLEAR SKIES.

AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDED TAFS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...A WEAK HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BUILD OVER
THE REGION FRIDAY AND SATURDAY FOR MUCH LIGHTER AFTERNOON WIND...
FOLLOWED BY MORE WEATHER DISTURBANCES AND GUSTY AFTERNOON WEST WIND
15 TO 30 MPH SUNDAY...MONDAY...AND TUESDAY. NO PRECIPITATION IS
EXPECTED THIS PERIOD. MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITIES WILL RANGE FROM 5
TO 10 PERCENT. FAIR RECOVERY IS EXPECTED OVERNIGHT. MARGINAL FIRE
WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SUNDAY AND MONDAY AFTERNOONS DUE TO
WIND AND LOW HUMIDITY.

&&

.PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AZ...NONE.
CA...NONE.
&&

$$

VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/PHOENIX

DISCUSSION...LEINS/NOLTE
AVIATION....VASQUEZ
FIRE WEATHER...VASQUEZ




000
FXUS65 KPSR 011552
AFDPSR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PHOENIX AZ
852 AM MST WED APR 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A DRY WEATHER SYSTEM WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION FROM THE GREAT BASIN
LATE TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...USHERING IN COOLER TEMPERATURES AND
INCREASING WINDS. DRY CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN THROUGH THE WEEKEND
WITH CONTINUED ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WITH DAYTIME HIGHS IN THE
UPPER 80S TO LOW 90S. AN ACTIVE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN WILL LINGER OVER
THE WEST INTO NEXT WEEK...RESULTING IN NEAR OR POSSIBLY EVEN BELOW
NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR OUR AFTERNOONS AND MILD MORNINGS.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
ZONAL FLOW PERSISTS ACROSS THE REGION THIS MORNING AS YESTERDAY`S
UPPER LOW HAS SHIFTED INTO THE MIDWEST...MEANWHILE TOMORROW`S
SHORTWAVE IS MAKING ITS WAY THROUGH NORTHERN CALIFORNIA. FOLLOWING
ANOTHER MILD MORNING ACROSS THE REGION...MID MORNING TEMPERATURES
WERE ALREADY IN THE MID 70S ACROSS THE LOWER DESERTS AS OF 1550Z.

THE FORECAST IS RELATIVELY STRAIGHTFORWARD TODAY...SUNNY SKIES AND
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES. BIAS CORRECTED CONSENSUS GUIDANCE SUGGESTS
A SLIGHTLY COOLER TODAY TODAY...BUT STILL LOOKING AT DESERT HIGHS IN
THE UPPER 80S/LOWER 90S. INHERITED FORECAST WAS ON THE MARK AND ONLY
VERY MINOR CHANGES WERE MADE.

&&

.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
MULTIPLE SHORTWAVE AND LOW FEATURES DOT THE NORTH PACIFIC UPSTREAM
AND WILL GENERATE A MORE PROGRESSIVE FLOW PATTERN OVER THE WESTERN
CONUS FOR THE NEXT WEEK OR SO. THE NEXT SHORTWAVE OF INTEREST THAT
WILL IMPACT THE SOUTHWEST STATES IS RIGHT OVER NORTHERN B.C. AND THE
ALEXANDER ARCHIPELAGO IN SE ALASKA...WITH HEIGHTS STRETCHING BACK OUT
OVER THE PACIFIC NEAR 40N/135W. THIS SYSTEM WILL EXPAND SOUTHWARD AND
MOVE ON-SHORE OVER CALIFORNIA AND INTO THE SOUTHERN GREAT BASIN LATER
TODAY AND INTO THURSDAY...DRAWING FURTHER AIRMASS DRYING AND MILD CAA
DOWN INTO THE SOUTHWEST STATES.

UL JET ORIENTATION AND SPEED AMPLIFICATION ALONG WITH POCKETS OF
DEEPER MIXING REALLY TARGET NE AZ/FOUR CORNERS REGION FOR THE
STRONGEST WINDS AND LIKELY AREAS OF CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS
FOR THIS EVENT. NORTHERLY WINDS ACROSS SE CA AND LOWER CO RIVER
VALLEY 15 TO 25 MPH WITH GUSTS 30-35 MPH WILL RESULT AS THE
SHORTWAVE BRUSHES BY TO OUR NORTH. WINDS BACK ACROSS THE LOWER AZ
DESERTS WILL RANGE IN THE 10 TO 20 MPH RANGE. AIRMASS DRYING WILL
DROP SFC DEWPOINTS INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS AND 10S BY THURSDAY
AFTN...WITH RELATIVE HUMIDITIES IN THE SINGLE DIGITS AS WELL.
MARGINAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE STILL POSSIBLE THURSDAY IN
LOCALIZED POCKETS...HOWEVER FORECASTED WIND SPEEDS ARE STILL UNDER
CRITICAL THRESHOLDS. LATE WEEK TEMPERATURES WILL COOL INTO THE
MID/UPPER 80S...WITH A SLIGHT REBOUND INTO THE LOWER 90S EXPECTED
THROUGH THE EASTER WEEKEND AS FLOW ALOFT BECOMES SOUTHWESTERLY AND
USHERS IN WARMER AIR FROM OFF THE EAST CENTRAL PACIFIC.

FORECAST SOLNS IN THE EXTENDED REMAIN IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT
THROUGH ABOUT THE MIDDAY MONDAY TIME FRAME. LONGWAVE TROUGHING HOLDS
OVER MUCH OF THE WEST WITH EMBEDDED SHORTWAVE PASSING THROUGH THE
REGION TO OUR NORTH. AFTER MONDAY...A MORE ORGANIZED PACIFIC LOW IS
PROGGED TO DEVELOP OVER THE PACIFIC NW AND THEN EXPAND DOWN THE WEST
COAST. OUT OF THE 00Z OPERATIONS GUIDANCE...THE ECMWF SOLN IS THE
COLDEST AND DEEPEST SWEEPING THE SYSTEM THROUGH AZ AS A CUT-OFF LOW.
THE GFS/GEM SOLNS FAVOR A MORE OPEN WAVE WITH A LESSER SOUTHERN
EXTENT. ENSEMBLE SPREAD REMAINS HIGH...PARTICULARLY OVER THE
NORTHEAST PACIFIC AND OVER THE PACIFIC NW WITH THE GENESIS OF THIS
SYSTEM. TAKING A MEDIAN VALUE FORECAST OF ALL AVAILABLE TEMPERATURE
GUIDANCE ALONG WITH A HEAVY BLEND OF CONSENSUS GUIDANCE RESULTS IN
THE POSSIBILITY OF BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES DURING THE MIDDLE OF
NEXT WEEK. NORMALS FOR THIS PERIOD IN PHOENIX AND YUMA ARE 82/83 AND
84/85 DEGREES RESPECTIVELY. CONFIDENCE IS MARGINAL IN THESE FORECAST
VALUES AND EVEN LOWER IN THE TIMING AND MOVEMENT OF THE WEATHER
SYSTEM RESPONSIBLE FOR THE COOL DOWN. DESPITE THE DEPTH
DIFFERENCES...ALL SOLNS ATTM INDICATE THIS SYSTEMS WILL GNLY BE ON
THE DRIER SIDE. SOME MOISTURE MAY WORK INTO EASTERN AZ/MOGOLLON RIM
AND COULD RESULT IN SOME PRECIP ACTIVITY. SLIGHT BLEND OF (ABOUT 5
PERCENT OVER EACH 12 HR PERIOD) WAS WORKED INTO THE EXTENDED POP
GRIDS. RESULTING POPS DO NOT GENERATE ANY SENSIBLE WEATHER...BUT AT
LEAST A TREND WAS INTRODUCED FOR THE MIDDLE PARTS OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION... SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA INCLUDING KPHX...KIWA...AND
KSDL...AND SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA AND SOUTHWEST ARIZONA INCLUDING KIPL
AND KBLH...

A DRY WEATHER DISTURBANCE WILL APPROACH NORTHERN ARIZONA TODAY
RESULTING IN GUSTY AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING WEST WINDS OVER MOST OF
SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH CENTRAL ARIZONA. THROUGH 18Z WED...CLEAR SKIES.
LIGHT AND VARIABLE WIND UNDER 8 KNOTS. FROM 18Z WED THROUGH 03Z
THU...INCREASING AFTERNOON WEST WIND 10 TO 20 KNOTS...STRONGEST
AROUND 23Z. CLEAR SKIES.

AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDED TAFS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...A WEAK HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BUILD OVER
THE REGION FRIDAY AND SATURDAY FOR MUCH LIGHTER AFTERNOON WIND...
FOLLOWED BY MORE WEATHER DISTURBANCES AND GUSTY AFTERNOON WEST WIND
15 TO 30 MPH SUNDAY...MONDAY...AND TUESDAY. NO PRECIPITATION IS
EXPECTED THIS PERIOD. MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITIES WILL RANGE FROM 5
TO 10 PERCENT. FAIR RECOVERY IS EXPECTED OVERNIGHT. MARGINAL FIRE
WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SUNDAY AND MONDAY AFTERNOONS DUE TO
WIND AND LOW HUMIDITY.

&&

.PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AZ...NONE.
CA...NONE.
&&

$$

VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/PHOENIX

DISCUSSION...LEINS/NOLTE
AVIATION....VASQUEZ
FIRE WEATHER...VASQUEZ




000
FXUS65 KPSR 011552
AFDPSR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PHOENIX AZ
852 AM MST WED APR 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A DRY WEATHER SYSTEM WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION FROM THE GREAT BASIN
LATE TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...USHERING IN COOLER TEMPERATURES AND
INCREASING WINDS. DRY CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN THROUGH THE WEEKEND
WITH CONTINUED ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WITH DAYTIME HIGHS IN THE
UPPER 80S TO LOW 90S. AN ACTIVE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN WILL LINGER OVER
THE WEST INTO NEXT WEEK...RESULTING IN NEAR OR POSSIBLY EVEN BELOW
NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR OUR AFTERNOONS AND MILD MORNINGS.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
ZONAL FLOW PERSISTS ACROSS THE REGION THIS MORNING AS YESTERDAY`S
UPPER LOW HAS SHIFTED INTO THE MIDWEST...MEANWHILE TOMORROW`S
SHORTWAVE IS MAKING ITS WAY THROUGH NORTHERN CALIFORNIA. FOLLOWING
ANOTHER MILD MORNING ACROSS THE REGION...MID MORNING TEMPERATURES
WERE ALREADY IN THE MID 70S ACROSS THE LOWER DESERTS AS OF 1550Z.

THE FORECAST IS RELATIVELY STRAIGHTFORWARD TODAY...SUNNY SKIES AND
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES. BIAS CORRECTED CONSENSUS GUIDANCE SUGGESTS
A SLIGHTLY COOLER TODAY TODAY...BUT STILL LOOKING AT DESERT HIGHS IN
THE UPPER 80S/LOWER 90S. INHERITED FORECAST WAS ON THE MARK AND ONLY
VERY MINOR CHANGES WERE MADE.

&&

.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
MULTIPLE SHORTWAVE AND LOW FEATURES DOT THE NORTH PACIFIC UPSTREAM
AND WILL GENERATE A MORE PROGRESSIVE FLOW PATTERN OVER THE WESTERN
CONUS FOR THE NEXT WEEK OR SO. THE NEXT SHORTWAVE OF INTEREST THAT
WILL IMPACT THE SOUTHWEST STATES IS RIGHT OVER NORTHERN B.C. AND THE
ALEXANDER ARCHIPELAGO IN SE ALASKA...WITH HEIGHTS STRETCHING BACK OUT
OVER THE PACIFIC NEAR 40N/135W. THIS SYSTEM WILL EXPAND SOUTHWARD AND
MOVE ON-SHORE OVER CALIFORNIA AND INTO THE SOUTHERN GREAT BASIN LATER
TODAY AND INTO THURSDAY...DRAWING FURTHER AIRMASS DRYING AND MILD CAA
DOWN INTO THE SOUTHWEST STATES.

UL JET ORIENTATION AND SPEED AMPLIFICATION ALONG WITH POCKETS OF
DEEPER MIXING REALLY TARGET NE AZ/FOUR CORNERS REGION FOR THE
STRONGEST WINDS AND LIKELY AREAS OF CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS
FOR THIS EVENT. NORTHERLY WINDS ACROSS SE CA AND LOWER CO RIVER
VALLEY 15 TO 25 MPH WITH GUSTS 30-35 MPH WILL RESULT AS THE
SHORTWAVE BRUSHES BY TO OUR NORTH. WINDS BACK ACROSS THE LOWER AZ
DESERTS WILL RANGE IN THE 10 TO 20 MPH RANGE. AIRMASS DRYING WILL
DROP SFC DEWPOINTS INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS AND 10S BY THURSDAY
AFTN...WITH RELATIVE HUMIDITIES IN THE SINGLE DIGITS AS WELL.
MARGINAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE STILL POSSIBLE THURSDAY IN
LOCALIZED POCKETS...HOWEVER FORECASTED WIND SPEEDS ARE STILL UNDER
CRITICAL THRESHOLDS. LATE WEEK TEMPERATURES WILL COOL INTO THE
MID/UPPER 80S...WITH A SLIGHT REBOUND INTO THE LOWER 90S EXPECTED
THROUGH THE EASTER WEEKEND AS FLOW ALOFT BECOMES SOUTHWESTERLY AND
USHERS IN WARMER AIR FROM OFF THE EAST CENTRAL PACIFIC.

FORECAST SOLNS IN THE EXTENDED REMAIN IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT
THROUGH ABOUT THE MIDDAY MONDAY TIME FRAME. LONGWAVE TROUGHING HOLDS
OVER MUCH OF THE WEST WITH EMBEDDED SHORTWAVE PASSING THROUGH THE
REGION TO OUR NORTH. AFTER MONDAY...A MORE ORGANIZED PACIFIC LOW IS
PROGGED TO DEVELOP OVER THE PACIFIC NW AND THEN EXPAND DOWN THE WEST
COAST. OUT OF THE 00Z OPERATIONS GUIDANCE...THE ECMWF SOLN IS THE
COLDEST AND DEEPEST SWEEPING THE SYSTEM THROUGH AZ AS A CUT-OFF LOW.
THE GFS/GEM SOLNS FAVOR A MORE OPEN WAVE WITH A LESSER SOUTHERN
EXTENT. ENSEMBLE SPREAD REMAINS HIGH...PARTICULARLY OVER THE
NORTHEAST PACIFIC AND OVER THE PACIFIC NW WITH THE GENESIS OF THIS
SYSTEM. TAKING A MEDIAN VALUE FORECAST OF ALL AVAILABLE TEMPERATURE
GUIDANCE ALONG WITH A HEAVY BLEND OF CONSENSUS GUIDANCE RESULTS IN
THE POSSIBILITY OF BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES DURING THE MIDDLE OF
NEXT WEEK. NORMALS FOR THIS PERIOD IN PHOENIX AND YUMA ARE 82/83 AND
84/85 DEGREES RESPECTIVELY. CONFIDENCE IS MARGINAL IN THESE FORECAST
VALUES AND EVEN LOWER IN THE TIMING AND MOVEMENT OF THE WEATHER
SYSTEM RESPONSIBLE FOR THE COOL DOWN. DESPITE THE DEPTH
DIFFERENCES...ALL SOLNS ATTM INDICATE THIS SYSTEMS WILL GNLY BE ON
THE DRIER SIDE. SOME MOISTURE MAY WORK INTO EASTERN AZ/MOGOLLON RIM
AND COULD RESULT IN SOME PRECIP ACTIVITY. SLIGHT BLEND OF (ABOUT 5
PERCENT OVER EACH 12 HR PERIOD) WAS WORKED INTO THE EXTENDED POP
GRIDS. RESULTING POPS DO NOT GENERATE ANY SENSIBLE WEATHER...BUT AT
LEAST A TREND WAS INTRODUCED FOR THE MIDDLE PARTS OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION... SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA INCLUDING KPHX...KIWA...AND
KSDL...AND SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA AND SOUTHWEST ARIZONA INCLUDING KIPL
AND KBLH...

A DRY WEATHER DISTURBANCE WILL APPROACH NORTHERN ARIZONA TODAY
RESULTING IN GUSTY AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING WEST WINDS OVER MOST OF
SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH CENTRAL ARIZONA. THROUGH 18Z WED...CLEAR SKIES.
LIGHT AND VARIABLE WIND UNDER 8 KNOTS. FROM 18Z WED THROUGH 03Z
THU...INCREASING AFTERNOON WEST WIND 10 TO 20 KNOTS...STRONGEST
AROUND 23Z. CLEAR SKIES.

AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDED TAFS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...A WEAK HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BUILD OVER
THE REGION FRIDAY AND SATURDAY FOR MUCH LIGHTER AFTERNOON WIND...
FOLLOWED BY MORE WEATHER DISTURBANCES AND GUSTY AFTERNOON WEST WIND
15 TO 30 MPH SUNDAY...MONDAY...AND TUESDAY. NO PRECIPITATION IS
EXPECTED THIS PERIOD. MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITIES WILL RANGE FROM 5
TO 10 PERCENT. FAIR RECOVERY IS EXPECTED OVERNIGHT. MARGINAL FIRE
WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SUNDAY AND MONDAY AFTERNOONS DUE TO
WIND AND LOW HUMIDITY.

&&

.PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AZ...NONE.
CA...NONE.
&&

$$

VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/PHOENIX

DISCUSSION...LEINS/NOLTE
AVIATION....VASQUEZ
FIRE WEATHER...VASQUEZ



000
FXUS65 KPSR 011552
AFDPSR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PHOENIX AZ
852 AM MST WED APR 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A DRY WEATHER SYSTEM WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION FROM THE GREAT BASIN
LATE TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...USHERING IN COOLER TEMPERATURES AND
INCREASING WINDS. DRY CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN THROUGH THE WEEKEND
WITH CONTINUED ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WITH DAYTIME HIGHS IN THE
UPPER 80S TO LOW 90S. AN ACTIVE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN WILL LINGER OVER
THE WEST INTO NEXT WEEK...RESULTING IN NEAR OR POSSIBLY EVEN BELOW
NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR OUR AFTERNOONS AND MILD MORNINGS.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
ZONAL FLOW PERSISTS ACROSS THE REGION THIS MORNING AS YESTERDAY`S
UPPER LOW HAS SHIFTED INTO THE MIDWEST...MEANWHILE TOMORROW`S
SHORTWAVE IS MAKING ITS WAY THROUGH NORTHERN CALIFORNIA. FOLLOWING
ANOTHER MILD MORNING ACROSS THE REGION...MID MORNING TEMPERATURES
WERE ALREADY IN THE MID 70S ACROSS THE LOWER DESERTS AS OF 1550Z.

THE FORECAST IS RELATIVELY STRAIGHTFORWARD TODAY...SUNNY SKIES AND
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES. BIAS CORRECTED CONSENSUS GUIDANCE SUGGESTS
A SLIGHTLY COOLER TODAY TODAY...BUT STILL LOOKING AT DESERT HIGHS IN
THE UPPER 80S/LOWER 90S. INHERITED FORECAST WAS ON THE MARK AND ONLY
VERY MINOR CHANGES WERE MADE.

&&

.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
MULTIPLE SHORTWAVE AND LOW FEATURES DOT THE NORTH PACIFIC UPSTREAM
AND WILL GENERATE A MORE PROGRESSIVE FLOW PATTERN OVER THE WESTERN
CONUS FOR THE NEXT WEEK OR SO. THE NEXT SHORTWAVE OF INTEREST THAT
WILL IMPACT THE SOUTHWEST STATES IS RIGHT OVER NORTHERN B.C. AND THE
ALEXANDER ARCHIPELAGO IN SE ALASKA...WITH HEIGHTS STRETCHING BACK OUT
OVER THE PACIFIC NEAR 40N/135W. THIS SYSTEM WILL EXPAND SOUTHWARD AND
MOVE ON-SHORE OVER CALIFORNIA AND INTO THE SOUTHERN GREAT BASIN LATER
TODAY AND INTO THURSDAY...DRAWING FURTHER AIRMASS DRYING AND MILD CAA
DOWN INTO THE SOUTHWEST STATES.

UL JET ORIENTATION AND SPEED AMPLIFICATION ALONG WITH POCKETS OF
DEEPER MIXING REALLY TARGET NE AZ/FOUR CORNERS REGION FOR THE
STRONGEST WINDS AND LIKELY AREAS OF CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS
FOR THIS EVENT. NORTHERLY WINDS ACROSS SE CA AND LOWER CO RIVER
VALLEY 15 TO 25 MPH WITH GUSTS 30-35 MPH WILL RESULT AS THE
SHORTWAVE BRUSHES BY TO OUR NORTH. WINDS BACK ACROSS THE LOWER AZ
DESERTS WILL RANGE IN THE 10 TO 20 MPH RANGE. AIRMASS DRYING WILL
DROP SFC DEWPOINTS INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS AND 10S BY THURSDAY
AFTN...WITH RELATIVE HUMIDITIES IN THE SINGLE DIGITS AS WELL.
MARGINAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE STILL POSSIBLE THURSDAY IN
LOCALIZED POCKETS...HOWEVER FORECASTED WIND SPEEDS ARE STILL UNDER
CRITICAL THRESHOLDS. LATE WEEK TEMPERATURES WILL COOL INTO THE
MID/UPPER 80S...WITH A SLIGHT REBOUND INTO THE LOWER 90S EXPECTED
THROUGH THE EASTER WEEKEND AS FLOW ALOFT BECOMES SOUTHWESTERLY AND
USHERS IN WARMER AIR FROM OFF THE EAST CENTRAL PACIFIC.

FORECAST SOLNS IN THE EXTENDED REMAIN IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT
THROUGH ABOUT THE MIDDAY MONDAY TIME FRAME. LONGWAVE TROUGHING HOLDS
OVER MUCH OF THE WEST WITH EMBEDDED SHORTWAVE PASSING THROUGH THE
REGION TO OUR NORTH. AFTER MONDAY...A MORE ORGANIZED PACIFIC LOW IS
PROGGED TO DEVELOP OVER THE PACIFIC NW AND THEN EXPAND DOWN THE WEST
COAST. OUT OF THE 00Z OPERATIONS GUIDANCE...THE ECMWF SOLN IS THE
COLDEST AND DEEPEST SWEEPING THE SYSTEM THROUGH AZ AS A CUT-OFF LOW.
THE GFS/GEM SOLNS FAVOR A MORE OPEN WAVE WITH A LESSER SOUTHERN
EXTENT. ENSEMBLE SPREAD REMAINS HIGH...PARTICULARLY OVER THE
NORTHEAST PACIFIC AND OVER THE PACIFIC NW WITH THE GENESIS OF THIS
SYSTEM. TAKING A MEDIAN VALUE FORECAST OF ALL AVAILABLE TEMPERATURE
GUIDANCE ALONG WITH A HEAVY BLEND OF CONSENSUS GUIDANCE RESULTS IN
THE POSSIBILITY OF BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES DURING THE MIDDLE OF
NEXT WEEK. NORMALS FOR THIS PERIOD IN PHOENIX AND YUMA ARE 82/83 AND
84/85 DEGREES RESPECTIVELY. CONFIDENCE IS MARGINAL IN THESE FORECAST
VALUES AND EVEN LOWER IN THE TIMING AND MOVEMENT OF THE WEATHER
SYSTEM RESPONSIBLE FOR THE COOL DOWN. DESPITE THE DEPTH
DIFFERENCES...ALL SOLNS ATTM INDICATE THIS SYSTEMS WILL GNLY BE ON
THE DRIER SIDE. SOME MOISTURE MAY WORK INTO EASTERN AZ/MOGOLLON RIM
AND COULD RESULT IN SOME PRECIP ACTIVITY. SLIGHT BLEND OF (ABOUT 5
PERCENT OVER EACH 12 HR PERIOD) WAS WORKED INTO THE EXTENDED POP
GRIDS. RESULTING POPS DO NOT GENERATE ANY SENSIBLE WEATHER...BUT AT
LEAST A TREND WAS INTRODUCED FOR THE MIDDLE PARTS OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION... SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA INCLUDING KPHX...KIWA...AND
KSDL...AND SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA AND SOUTHWEST ARIZONA INCLUDING KIPL
AND KBLH...

A DRY WEATHER DISTURBANCE WILL APPROACH NORTHERN ARIZONA TODAY
RESULTING IN GUSTY AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING WEST WINDS OVER MOST OF
SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH CENTRAL ARIZONA. THROUGH 18Z WED...CLEAR SKIES.
LIGHT AND VARIABLE WIND UNDER 8 KNOTS. FROM 18Z WED THROUGH 03Z
THU...INCREASING AFTERNOON WEST WIND 10 TO 20 KNOTS...STRONGEST
AROUND 23Z. CLEAR SKIES.

AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDED TAFS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...A WEAK HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BUILD OVER
THE REGION FRIDAY AND SATURDAY FOR MUCH LIGHTER AFTERNOON WIND...
FOLLOWED BY MORE WEATHER DISTURBANCES AND GUSTY AFTERNOON WEST WIND
15 TO 30 MPH SUNDAY...MONDAY...AND TUESDAY. NO PRECIPITATION IS
EXPECTED THIS PERIOD. MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITIES WILL RANGE FROM 5
TO 10 PERCENT. FAIR RECOVERY IS EXPECTED OVERNIGHT. MARGINAL FIRE
WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SUNDAY AND MONDAY AFTERNOONS DUE TO
WIND AND LOW HUMIDITY.

&&

.PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AZ...NONE.
CA...NONE.
&&

$$

VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/PHOENIX

DISCUSSION...LEINS/NOLTE
AVIATION....VASQUEZ
FIRE WEATHER...VASQUEZ



000
FXUS65 KPSR 011552
AFDPSR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PHOENIX AZ
852 AM MST WED APR 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A DRY WEATHER SYSTEM WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION FROM THE GREAT BASIN
LATE TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...USHERING IN COOLER TEMPERATURES AND
INCREASING WINDS. DRY CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN THROUGH THE WEEKEND
WITH CONTINUED ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WITH DAYTIME HIGHS IN THE
UPPER 80S TO LOW 90S. AN ACTIVE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN WILL LINGER OVER
THE WEST INTO NEXT WEEK...RESULTING IN NEAR OR POSSIBLY EVEN BELOW
NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR OUR AFTERNOONS AND MILD MORNINGS.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
ZONAL FLOW PERSISTS ACROSS THE REGION THIS MORNING AS YESTERDAY`S
UPPER LOW HAS SHIFTED INTO THE MIDWEST...MEANWHILE TOMORROW`S
SHORTWAVE IS MAKING ITS WAY THROUGH NORTHERN CALIFORNIA. FOLLOWING
ANOTHER MILD MORNING ACROSS THE REGION...MID MORNING TEMPERATURES
WERE ALREADY IN THE MID 70S ACROSS THE LOWER DESERTS AS OF 1550Z.

THE FORECAST IS RELATIVELY STRAIGHTFORWARD TODAY...SUNNY SKIES AND
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES. BIAS CORRECTED CONSENSUS GUIDANCE SUGGESTS
A SLIGHTLY COOLER TODAY TODAY...BUT STILL LOOKING AT DESERT HIGHS IN
THE UPPER 80S/LOWER 90S. INHERITED FORECAST WAS ON THE MARK AND ONLY
VERY MINOR CHANGES WERE MADE.

&&

.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
MULTIPLE SHORTWAVE AND LOW FEATURES DOT THE NORTH PACIFIC UPSTREAM
AND WILL GENERATE A MORE PROGRESSIVE FLOW PATTERN OVER THE WESTERN
CONUS FOR THE NEXT WEEK OR SO. THE NEXT SHORTWAVE OF INTEREST THAT
WILL IMPACT THE SOUTHWEST STATES IS RIGHT OVER NORTHERN B.C. AND THE
ALEXANDER ARCHIPELAGO IN SE ALASKA...WITH HEIGHTS STRETCHING BACK OUT
OVER THE PACIFIC NEAR 40N/135W. THIS SYSTEM WILL EXPAND SOUTHWARD AND
MOVE ON-SHORE OVER CALIFORNIA AND INTO THE SOUTHERN GREAT BASIN LATER
TODAY AND INTO THURSDAY...DRAWING FURTHER AIRMASS DRYING AND MILD CAA
DOWN INTO THE SOUTHWEST STATES.

UL JET ORIENTATION AND SPEED AMPLIFICATION ALONG WITH POCKETS OF
DEEPER MIXING REALLY TARGET NE AZ/FOUR CORNERS REGION FOR THE
STRONGEST WINDS AND LIKELY AREAS OF CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS
FOR THIS EVENT. NORTHERLY WINDS ACROSS SE CA AND LOWER CO RIVER
VALLEY 15 TO 25 MPH WITH GUSTS 30-35 MPH WILL RESULT AS THE
SHORTWAVE BRUSHES BY TO OUR NORTH. WINDS BACK ACROSS THE LOWER AZ
DESERTS WILL RANGE IN THE 10 TO 20 MPH RANGE. AIRMASS DRYING WILL
DROP SFC DEWPOINTS INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS AND 10S BY THURSDAY
AFTN...WITH RELATIVE HUMIDITIES IN THE SINGLE DIGITS AS WELL.
MARGINAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE STILL POSSIBLE THURSDAY IN
LOCALIZED POCKETS...HOWEVER FORECASTED WIND SPEEDS ARE STILL UNDER
CRITICAL THRESHOLDS. LATE WEEK TEMPERATURES WILL COOL INTO THE
MID/UPPER 80S...WITH A SLIGHT REBOUND INTO THE LOWER 90S EXPECTED
THROUGH THE EASTER WEEKEND AS FLOW ALOFT BECOMES SOUTHWESTERLY AND
USHERS IN WARMER AIR FROM OFF THE EAST CENTRAL PACIFIC.

FORECAST SOLNS IN THE EXTENDED REMAIN IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT
THROUGH ABOUT THE MIDDAY MONDAY TIME FRAME. LONGWAVE TROUGHING HOLDS
OVER MUCH OF THE WEST WITH EMBEDDED SHORTWAVE PASSING THROUGH THE
REGION TO OUR NORTH. AFTER MONDAY...A MORE ORGANIZED PACIFIC LOW IS
PROGGED TO DEVELOP OVER THE PACIFIC NW AND THEN EXPAND DOWN THE WEST
COAST. OUT OF THE 00Z OPERATIONS GUIDANCE...THE ECMWF SOLN IS THE
COLDEST AND DEEPEST SWEEPING THE SYSTEM THROUGH AZ AS A CUT-OFF LOW.
THE GFS/GEM SOLNS FAVOR A MORE OPEN WAVE WITH A LESSER SOUTHERN
EXTENT. ENSEMBLE SPREAD REMAINS HIGH...PARTICULARLY OVER THE
NORTHEAST PACIFIC AND OVER THE PACIFIC NW WITH THE GENESIS OF THIS
SYSTEM. TAKING A MEDIAN VALUE FORECAST OF ALL AVAILABLE TEMPERATURE
GUIDANCE ALONG WITH A HEAVY BLEND OF CONSENSUS GUIDANCE RESULTS IN
THE POSSIBILITY OF BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES DURING THE MIDDLE OF
NEXT WEEK. NORMALS FOR THIS PERIOD IN PHOENIX AND YUMA ARE 82/83 AND
84/85 DEGREES RESPECTIVELY. CONFIDENCE IS MARGINAL IN THESE FORECAST
VALUES AND EVEN LOWER IN THE TIMING AND MOVEMENT OF THE WEATHER
SYSTEM RESPONSIBLE FOR THE COOL DOWN. DESPITE THE DEPTH
DIFFERENCES...ALL SOLNS ATTM INDICATE THIS SYSTEMS WILL GNLY BE ON
THE DRIER SIDE. SOME MOISTURE MAY WORK INTO EASTERN AZ/MOGOLLON RIM
AND COULD RESULT IN SOME PRECIP ACTIVITY. SLIGHT BLEND OF (ABOUT 5
PERCENT OVER EACH 12 HR PERIOD) WAS WORKED INTO THE EXTENDED POP
GRIDS. RESULTING POPS DO NOT GENERATE ANY SENSIBLE WEATHER...BUT AT
LEAST A TREND WAS INTRODUCED FOR THE MIDDLE PARTS OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION... SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA INCLUDING KPHX...KIWA...AND
KSDL...AND SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA AND SOUTHWEST ARIZONA INCLUDING KIPL
AND KBLH...

A DRY WEATHER DISTURBANCE WILL APPROACH NORTHERN ARIZONA TODAY
RESULTING IN GUSTY AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING WEST WINDS OVER MOST OF
SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH CENTRAL ARIZONA. THROUGH 18Z WED...CLEAR SKIES.
LIGHT AND VARIABLE WIND UNDER 8 KNOTS. FROM 18Z WED THROUGH 03Z
THU...INCREASING AFTERNOON WEST WIND 10 TO 20 KNOTS...STRONGEST
AROUND 23Z. CLEAR SKIES.

AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDED TAFS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...A WEAK HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BUILD OVER
THE REGION FRIDAY AND SATURDAY FOR MUCH LIGHTER AFTERNOON WIND...
FOLLOWED BY MORE WEATHER DISTURBANCES AND GUSTY AFTERNOON WEST WIND
15 TO 30 MPH SUNDAY...MONDAY...AND TUESDAY. NO PRECIPITATION IS
EXPECTED THIS PERIOD. MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITIES WILL RANGE FROM 5
TO 10 PERCENT. FAIR RECOVERY IS EXPECTED OVERNIGHT. MARGINAL FIRE
WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SUNDAY AND MONDAY AFTERNOONS DUE TO
WIND AND LOW HUMIDITY.

&&

.PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AZ...NONE.
CA...NONE.
&&

$$

VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/PHOENIX

DISCUSSION...LEINS/NOLTE
AVIATION....VASQUEZ
FIRE WEATHER...VASQUEZ



000
FXUS65 KPSR 011552
AFDPSR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PHOENIX AZ
852 AM MST WED APR 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A DRY WEATHER SYSTEM WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION FROM THE GREAT BASIN
LATE TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...USHERING IN COOLER TEMPERATURES AND
INCREASING WINDS. DRY CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN THROUGH THE WEEKEND
WITH CONTINUED ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WITH DAYTIME HIGHS IN THE
UPPER 80S TO LOW 90S. AN ACTIVE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN WILL LINGER OVER
THE WEST INTO NEXT WEEK...RESULTING IN NEAR OR POSSIBLY EVEN BELOW
NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR OUR AFTERNOONS AND MILD MORNINGS.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
ZONAL FLOW PERSISTS ACROSS THE REGION THIS MORNING AS YESTERDAY`S
UPPER LOW HAS SHIFTED INTO THE MIDWEST...MEANWHILE TOMORROW`S
SHORTWAVE IS MAKING ITS WAY THROUGH NORTHERN CALIFORNIA. FOLLOWING
ANOTHER MILD MORNING ACROSS THE REGION...MID MORNING TEMPERATURES
WERE ALREADY IN THE MID 70S ACROSS THE LOWER DESERTS AS OF 1550Z.

THE FORECAST IS RELATIVELY STRAIGHTFORWARD TODAY...SUNNY SKIES AND
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES. BIAS CORRECTED CONSENSUS GUIDANCE SUGGESTS
A SLIGHTLY COOLER TODAY TODAY...BUT STILL LOOKING AT DESERT HIGHS IN
THE UPPER 80S/LOWER 90S. INHERITED FORECAST WAS ON THE MARK AND ONLY
VERY MINOR CHANGES WERE MADE.

&&

.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
MULTIPLE SHORTWAVE AND LOW FEATURES DOT THE NORTH PACIFIC UPSTREAM
AND WILL GENERATE A MORE PROGRESSIVE FLOW PATTERN OVER THE WESTERN
CONUS FOR THE NEXT WEEK OR SO. THE NEXT SHORTWAVE OF INTEREST THAT
WILL IMPACT THE SOUTHWEST STATES IS RIGHT OVER NORTHERN B.C. AND THE
ALEXANDER ARCHIPELAGO IN SE ALASKA...WITH HEIGHTS STRETCHING BACK OUT
OVER THE PACIFIC NEAR 40N/135W. THIS SYSTEM WILL EXPAND SOUTHWARD AND
MOVE ON-SHORE OVER CALIFORNIA AND INTO THE SOUTHERN GREAT BASIN LATER
TODAY AND INTO THURSDAY...DRAWING FURTHER AIRMASS DRYING AND MILD CAA
DOWN INTO THE SOUTHWEST STATES.

UL JET ORIENTATION AND SPEED AMPLIFICATION ALONG WITH POCKETS OF
DEEPER MIXING REALLY TARGET NE AZ/FOUR CORNERS REGION FOR THE
STRONGEST WINDS AND LIKELY AREAS OF CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS
FOR THIS EVENT. NORTHERLY WINDS ACROSS SE CA AND LOWER CO RIVER
VALLEY 15 TO 25 MPH WITH GUSTS 30-35 MPH WILL RESULT AS THE
SHORTWAVE BRUSHES BY TO OUR NORTH. WINDS BACK ACROSS THE LOWER AZ
DESERTS WILL RANGE IN THE 10 TO 20 MPH RANGE. AIRMASS DRYING WILL
DROP SFC DEWPOINTS INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS AND 10S BY THURSDAY
AFTN...WITH RELATIVE HUMIDITIES IN THE SINGLE DIGITS AS WELL.
MARGINAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE STILL POSSIBLE THURSDAY IN
LOCALIZED POCKETS...HOWEVER FORECASTED WIND SPEEDS ARE STILL UNDER
CRITICAL THRESHOLDS. LATE WEEK TEMPERATURES WILL COOL INTO THE
MID/UPPER 80S...WITH A SLIGHT REBOUND INTO THE LOWER 90S EXPECTED
THROUGH THE EASTER WEEKEND AS FLOW ALOFT BECOMES SOUTHWESTERLY AND
USHERS IN WARMER AIR FROM OFF THE EAST CENTRAL PACIFIC.

FORECAST SOLNS IN THE EXTENDED REMAIN IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT
THROUGH ABOUT THE MIDDAY MONDAY TIME FRAME. LONGWAVE TROUGHING HOLDS
OVER MUCH OF THE WEST WITH EMBEDDED SHORTWAVE PASSING THROUGH THE
REGION TO OUR NORTH. AFTER MONDAY...A MORE ORGANIZED PACIFIC LOW IS
PROGGED TO DEVELOP OVER THE PACIFIC NW AND THEN EXPAND DOWN THE WEST
COAST. OUT OF THE 00Z OPERATIONS GUIDANCE...THE ECMWF SOLN IS THE
COLDEST AND DEEPEST SWEEPING THE SYSTEM THROUGH AZ AS A CUT-OFF LOW.
THE GFS/GEM SOLNS FAVOR A MORE OPEN WAVE WITH A LESSER SOUTHERN
EXTENT. ENSEMBLE SPREAD REMAINS HIGH...PARTICULARLY OVER THE
NORTHEAST PACIFIC AND OVER THE PACIFIC NW WITH THE GENESIS OF THIS
SYSTEM. TAKING A MEDIAN VALUE FORECAST OF ALL AVAILABLE TEMPERATURE
GUIDANCE ALONG WITH A HEAVY BLEND OF CONSENSUS GUIDANCE RESULTS IN
THE POSSIBILITY OF BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES DURING THE MIDDLE OF
NEXT WEEK. NORMALS FOR THIS PERIOD IN PHOENIX AND YUMA ARE 82/83 AND
84/85 DEGREES RESPECTIVELY. CONFIDENCE IS MARGINAL IN THESE FORECAST
VALUES AND EVEN LOWER IN THE TIMING AND MOVEMENT OF THE WEATHER
SYSTEM RESPONSIBLE FOR THE COOL DOWN. DESPITE THE DEPTH
DIFFERENCES...ALL SOLNS ATTM INDICATE THIS SYSTEMS WILL GNLY BE ON
THE DRIER SIDE. SOME MOISTURE MAY WORK INTO EASTERN AZ/MOGOLLON RIM
AND COULD RESULT IN SOME PRECIP ACTIVITY. SLIGHT BLEND OF (ABOUT 5
PERCENT OVER EACH 12 HR PERIOD) WAS WORKED INTO THE EXTENDED POP
GRIDS. RESULTING POPS DO NOT GENERATE ANY SENSIBLE WEATHER...BUT AT
LEAST A TREND WAS INTRODUCED FOR THE MIDDLE PARTS OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION... SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA INCLUDING KPHX...KIWA...AND
KSDL...AND SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA AND SOUTHWEST ARIZONA INCLUDING KIPL
AND KBLH...

A DRY WEATHER DISTURBANCE WILL APPROACH NORTHERN ARIZONA TODAY
RESULTING IN GUSTY AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING WEST WINDS OVER MOST OF
SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH CENTRAL ARIZONA. THROUGH 18Z WED...CLEAR SKIES.
LIGHT AND VARIABLE WIND UNDER 8 KNOTS. FROM 18Z WED THROUGH 03Z
THU...INCREASING AFTERNOON WEST WIND 10 TO 20 KNOTS...STRONGEST
AROUND 23Z. CLEAR SKIES.

AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDED TAFS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...A WEAK HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BUILD OVER
THE REGION FRIDAY AND SATURDAY FOR MUCH LIGHTER AFTERNOON WIND...
FOLLOWED BY MORE WEATHER DISTURBANCES AND GUSTY AFTERNOON WEST WIND
15 TO 30 MPH SUNDAY...MONDAY...AND TUESDAY. NO PRECIPITATION IS
EXPECTED THIS PERIOD. MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITIES WILL RANGE FROM 5
TO 10 PERCENT. FAIR RECOVERY IS EXPECTED OVERNIGHT. MARGINAL FIRE
WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SUNDAY AND MONDAY AFTERNOONS DUE TO
WIND AND LOW HUMIDITY.

&&

.PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AZ...NONE.
CA...NONE.
&&

$$

VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/PHOENIX

DISCUSSION...LEINS/NOLTE
AVIATION....VASQUEZ
FIRE WEATHER...VASQUEZ



000
FXUS65 KPSR 011046
AFDPSR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PHOENIX AZ
345 AM MST WED APR 1 2015

.UPDATE...AVIATION AND FIRE WEATHER DISCUSSIONS.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
A DRY WEATHER SYSTEM WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION FROM THE GREAT BASIN
LATE TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...USHERING IN COOLER TEMPERATURES AND
INCREASING WINDS. DRY CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN THROUGH THE WEEKEND
WITH CONTINUED ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WITH DAYTIME HIGHS IN THE
UPPER 80S TO LOW 90S. AN ACTIVE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN WILL LINGER OVER
THE WEST INTO NEXT WEEK...RESULTING IN NEAR OR POSSIBLY EVEN BELOW
NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR OUR AFTERNOONS AND MILD MORNINGS.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
ANOTHER MILD MORNING UNDERWAY OVER THE AZ/SE CA DESERTS WITH MANY
LOCATIONS ABOUT 3 TO 8 DEGREES WARMER THAN THIS TIME TUESDAY AM.
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND SURFACE ANALYSIS ALREADY INDICATE THE
ADVANCEMENT OF DRIER AIR INTO THE REGION FROM THE WEST...WITH
DEWPOINT READINGS ALREADY INTO THE 20S AND 10S ACROSS PORTIONS
OF SE CA AND SOUTHERN NV. THIS INITIAL BATCH OF DRY AIR WILL
DROP PWAT REGIONS ACROSS THE REGION TO NEAR QUARTER INCH READINGS
BY THIS EVENING. WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT AND SLIGHTLY LOWERED HEIGHTS
WILL ALLOW OUR STREAK OF RECORD SETTING TEMPERATURES TO COME TO A
WRAP...WITH DAYTIME HIGHS TODAY IN THE LOW 90S ACROSS THE LOWER
DESERTS AND LOW 80S FOR LOCALES ACROSS SOUTHERN GILA COUNTY AND
JOSHUA TREE NP.

MULTIPLE SHORTWAVE AND LOW FEATURES DOT THE NORTH PACIFIC UPSTREAM
AND WILL GENERATE A MORE PROGRESSIVE FLOW PATTERN OVER THE WESTERN
CONUS FOR THE NEXT WEEK OR SO. THE NEXT SHORTWAVE OF INTEREST THAT
WILL IMPACT THE SOUTHWEST STATES IS RIGHT OVER NORTHERN B.C.
AND THE ALEXANDER ARCHIPELAGO IN SE ALASKA...WITH HEIGHTS STRETCHING
BACK OUT OVER THE PACIFIC NEAR 40N/135W. THIS SYSTEM WILL EXPAND
SOUTHWARD AND MOVE ON-SHORE OVER CALIFORNIA AND INTO THE SOUTHERN
GREAT BASIN LATER TODAY AND INTO THURSDAY...DRAWING FURTHER AIRMASS
DRYING AND MILD CAA DOWN INTO THE SOUTHWEST STATES.

UL JET ORIENTATION AND SPEED AMPLIFICATION ALONG WITH POCKETS OF
DEEPER MIXING REALLY TARGET NE AZ/FOUR CORNERS REGION FOR THE
STRONGEST WINDS AND LIKELY AREAS OF CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS
FOR THIS EVENT. NORTHERLY WINDS ACROSS SE CA AND LOWER CO RIVER
VALLEY 15 TO 25 MPH WITH GUSTS 30-35 MPH WILL RESULT AS THE
SHORTWAVE BRUSHES BY TO OUR NORTH. WINDS BACK ACROSS THE LOWER AZ
DESERTS WILL RANGE IN THE 10 TO 20 MPH RANGE. AIRMASS DRYING WILL
DROP SFC DEWPOINTS INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS AND 10S BY THURSDAY
AFTN...WITH RELATIVE HUMIDITIES IN THE SINGLE DIGITS AS WELL.
MARGINAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE STILL POSSIBLE THURSDAY IN
LOCALIZED POCKETS...HOWEVER FORECASTED WIND SPEEDS ARE STILL UNDER
CRITICAL THRESHOLDS. LATE WEEK TEMPERATURES WILL COOL INTO THE
MID/UPPER 80S...WITH A SLIGHT REBOUND INTO THE LOWER 90S EXPECTED
THROUGH THE EASTER WEEKEND AS FLOW ALOFT BECOMES SOUTHWESTERLY AND
USHERS IN WARMER AIR FROM OFF THE EAST CENTRAL PACIFIC.

FORECAST SOLNS IN THE EXTENDED REMAIN IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT
THROUGH ABOUT THE MIDDAY MONDAY TIME FRAME. LONGWAVE TROUGHING HOLDS
OVER MUCH OF THE WEST WITH EMBEDDED SHORTWAVE PASSING THROUGH THE
REGION TO OUR NORTH. AFTER MONDAY...A MORE ORGANIZED PACIFIC LOW IS
PROGGED TO DEVELOP OVER THE PACIFIC NW AND THEN EXPAND DOWN THE WEST
COAST. OUT OF THE 00Z OPERATIONS GUIDANCE...THE ECMWF SOLN IS THE
COLDEST AND DEEPEST SWEEPING THE SYSTEM THROUGH AZ AS A CUT-OFF LOW.
THE GFS/GEM SOLNS FAVOR A MORE OPEN WAVE WITH A LESSER SOUTHERN
EXTENT. ENSEMBLE SPREAD REMAINS HIGH...PARTICULARLY OVER THE
NORTHEAST PACIFIC AND OVER THE PACIFIC NW WITH THE GENESIS OF THIS
SYSTEM. TAKING A MEDIAN VALUE FORECAST OF ALL AVAILABLE TEMPERATURE
GUIDANCE ALONG WITH A HEAVY BLEND OF CONSENSUS GUIDANCE RESULTS IN
THE POSSIBILITY OF BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES DURING THE MIDDLE OF
NEXT WEEK. NORMALS FOR THIS PERIOD IN PHOENIX AND YUMA ARE 82/83 AND
84/85 DEGREES RESPECTIVELY. CONFIDENCE IS MARGINAL IN THESE FORECAST
VALUES AND EVEN LOWER IN THE TIMING AND MOVEMENT OF THE WEATHER
SYSTEM RESPONSIBLE FOR THE COOL DOWN. DESPITE THE DEPTH
DIFFERENCES...ALL SOLNS ATTM INDICATE THIS SYSTEMS WILL GNLY BE ON
THE DRIER SIDE. SOME MOISTURE MAY WORK INTO EASTERN AZ/MOGOLLON RIM
AND COULD RESULT IN SOME PRECIP ACTIVITY. SLIGHT BLEND OF (ABOUT 5
PERCENT OVER EACH 12 HR PERIOD) WAS WORKED INTO THE EXTENDED POP
GRIDS. RESULTING POPS DO NOT GENERATE ANY SENSIBLE WEATHER...BUT AT
LEAST A TREND WAS INTRODUCED FOR THE MIDDLE PARTS OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION... SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA INCLUDING KPHX...KIWA...AND
KSDL...AND SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA AND SOUTHWEST ARIZONA INCLUDING KIPL
AND KBLH...

A DRY WEATHER DISTURBANCE WILL APPROACH NORTHERN ARIZONA TODAY
RESULTING IN GUSTY AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING WEST WINDS OVER MOST OF
SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH CENTRAL ARIZONA. THROUGH 18Z WED...CLEAR SKIES.
LIGHT AND VARIABLE WIND UNDER 8 KNOTS. FROM 18Z WED THROUGH 03Z
THU...INCREASING AFTERNOON WEST WIND 10 TO 20 KNOTS...STRONGEST
AROUND 23Z. CLEAR SKIES.

AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDED TAFS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...A WEAK HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BUILD OVER
THE REGION FRIDAY AND SATURDAY FOR MUCH LIGHTER AFTERNOON WIND...
FOLLOWED BY MORE WEATHER DISTURBANCES AND GUSTY AFTERNOON WEST WIND
15 TO 30 MPH SUNDAY...MONDAY...AND TUESDAY. NO PRECIPITATION IS
EXPECTED THIS PERIOD. MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITIES WILL RANGE FROM 5
TO 10 PERCENT. FAIR RECOVERY IS EXPECTED OVERNIGHT. MARGINAL FIRE
WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SUNDAY AND MONDAY AFTERNOONS DUE TO
WIND AND LOW HUMIDITY.

&&

.PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AZ...NONE.
CA...NONE.
&&

$$

VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/PHOENIX

DISCUSSION...NOLTE
AVIATION....VASQUEZ
FIRE WEATHER...VASQUEZ




000
FXUS65 KPSR 011046
AFDPSR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PHOENIX AZ
345 AM MST WED APR 1 2015

.UPDATE...AVIATION AND FIRE WEATHER DISCUSSIONS.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
A DRY WEATHER SYSTEM WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION FROM THE GREAT BASIN
LATE TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...USHERING IN COOLER TEMPERATURES AND
INCREASING WINDS. DRY CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN THROUGH THE WEEKEND
WITH CONTINUED ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WITH DAYTIME HIGHS IN THE
UPPER 80S TO LOW 90S. AN ACTIVE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN WILL LINGER OVER
THE WEST INTO NEXT WEEK...RESULTING IN NEAR OR POSSIBLY EVEN BELOW
NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR OUR AFTERNOONS AND MILD MORNINGS.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
ANOTHER MILD MORNING UNDERWAY OVER THE AZ/SE CA DESERTS WITH MANY
LOCATIONS ABOUT 3 TO 8 DEGREES WARMER THAN THIS TIME TUESDAY AM.
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND SURFACE ANALYSIS ALREADY INDICATE THE
ADVANCEMENT OF DRIER AIR INTO THE REGION FROM THE WEST...WITH
DEWPOINT READINGS ALREADY INTO THE 20S AND 10S ACROSS PORTIONS
OF SE CA AND SOUTHERN NV. THIS INITIAL BATCH OF DRY AIR WILL
DROP PWAT REGIONS ACROSS THE REGION TO NEAR QUARTER INCH READINGS
BY THIS EVENING. WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT AND SLIGHTLY LOWERED HEIGHTS
WILL ALLOW OUR STREAK OF RECORD SETTING TEMPERATURES TO COME TO A
WRAP...WITH DAYTIME HIGHS TODAY IN THE LOW 90S ACROSS THE LOWER
DESERTS AND LOW 80S FOR LOCALES ACROSS SOUTHERN GILA COUNTY AND
JOSHUA TREE NP.

MULTIPLE SHORTWAVE AND LOW FEATURES DOT THE NORTH PACIFIC UPSTREAM
AND WILL GENERATE A MORE PROGRESSIVE FLOW PATTERN OVER THE WESTERN
CONUS FOR THE NEXT WEEK OR SO. THE NEXT SHORTWAVE OF INTEREST THAT
WILL IMPACT THE SOUTHWEST STATES IS RIGHT OVER NORTHERN B.C.
AND THE ALEXANDER ARCHIPELAGO IN SE ALASKA...WITH HEIGHTS STRETCHING
BACK OUT OVER THE PACIFIC NEAR 40N/135W. THIS SYSTEM WILL EXPAND
SOUTHWARD AND MOVE ON-SHORE OVER CALIFORNIA AND INTO THE SOUTHERN
GREAT BASIN LATER TODAY AND INTO THURSDAY...DRAWING FURTHER AIRMASS
DRYING AND MILD CAA DOWN INTO THE SOUTHWEST STATES.

UL JET ORIENTATION AND SPEED AMPLIFICATION ALONG WITH POCKETS OF
DEEPER MIXING REALLY TARGET NE AZ/FOUR CORNERS REGION FOR THE
STRONGEST WINDS AND LIKELY AREAS OF CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS
FOR THIS EVENT. NORTHERLY WINDS ACROSS SE CA AND LOWER CO RIVER
VALLEY 15 TO 25 MPH WITH GUSTS 30-35 MPH WILL RESULT AS THE
SHORTWAVE BRUSHES BY TO OUR NORTH. WINDS BACK ACROSS THE LOWER AZ
DESERTS WILL RANGE IN THE 10 TO 20 MPH RANGE. AIRMASS DRYING WILL
DROP SFC DEWPOINTS INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS AND 10S BY THURSDAY
AFTN...WITH RELATIVE HUMIDITIES IN THE SINGLE DIGITS AS WELL.
MARGINAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE STILL POSSIBLE THURSDAY IN
LOCALIZED POCKETS...HOWEVER FORECASTED WIND SPEEDS ARE STILL UNDER
CRITICAL THRESHOLDS. LATE WEEK TEMPERATURES WILL COOL INTO THE
MID/UPPER 80S...WITH A SLIGHT REBOUND INTO THE LOWER 90S EXPECTED
THROUGH THE EASTER WEEKEND AS FLOW ALOFT BECOMES SOUTHWESTERLY AND
USHERS IN WARMER AIR FROM OFF THE EAST CENTRAL PACIFIC.

FORECAST SOLNS IN THE EXTENDED REMAIN IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT
THROUGH ABOUT THE MIDDAY MONDAY TIME FRAME. LONGWAVE TROUGHING HOLDS
OVER MUCH OF THE WEST WITH EMBEDDED SHORTWAVE PASSING THROUGH THE
REGION TO OUR NORTH. AFTER MONDAY...A MORE ORGANIZED PACIFIC LOW IS
PROGGED TO DEVELOP OVER THE PACIFIC NW AND THEN EXPAND DOWN THE WEST
COAST. OUT OF THE 00Z OPERATIONS GUIDANCE...THE ECMWF SOLN IS THE
COLDEST AND DEEPEST SWEEPING THE SYSTEM THROUGH AZ AS A CUT-OFF LOW.
THE GFS/GEM SOLNS FAVOR A MORE OPEN WAVE WITH A LESSER SOUTHERN
EXTENT. ENSEMBLE SPREAD REMAINS HIGH...PARTICULARLY OVER THE
NORTHEAST PACIFIC AND OVER THE PACIFIC NW WITH THE GENESIS OF THIS
SYSTEM. TAKING A MEDIAN VALUE FORECAST OF ALL AVAILABLE TEMPERATURE
GUIDANCE ALONG WITH A HEAVY BLEND OF CONSENSUS GUIDANCE RESULTS IN
THE POSSIBILITY OF BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES DURING THE MIDDLE OF
NEXT WEEK. NORMALS FOR THIS PERIOD IN PHOENIX AND YUMA ARE 82/83 AND
84/85 DEGREES RESPECTIVELY. CONFIDENCE IS MARGINAL IN THESE FORECAST
VALUES AND EVEN LOWER IN THE TIMING AND MOVEMENT OF THE WEATHER
SYSTEM RESPONSIBLE FOR THE COOL DOWN. DESPITE THE DEPTH
DIFFERENCES...ALL SOLNS ATTM INDICATE THIS SYSTEMS WILL GNLY BE ON
THE DRIER SIDE. SOME MOISTURE MAY WORK INTO EASTERN AZ/MOGOLLON RIM
AND COULD RESULT IN SOME PRECIP ACTIVITY. SLIGHT BLEND OF (ABOUT 5
PERCENT OVER EACH 12 HR PERIOD) WAS WORKED INTO THE EXTENDED POP
GRIDS. RESULTING POPS DO NOT GENERATE ANY SENSIBLE WEATHER...BUT AT
LEAST A TREND WAS INTRODUCED FOR THE MIDDLE PARTS OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION... SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA INCLUDING KPHX...KIWA...AND
KSDL...AND SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA AND SOUTHWEST ARIZONA INCLUDING KIPL
AND KBLH...

A DRY WEATHER DISTURBANCE WILL APPROACH NORTHERN ARIZONA TODAY
RESULTING IN GUSTY AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING WEST WINDS OVER MOST OF
SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH CENTRAL ARIZONA. THROUGH 18Z WED...CLEAR SKIES.
LIGHT AND VARIABLE WIND UNDER 8 KNOTS. FROM 18Z WED THROUGH 03Z
THU...INCREASING AFTERNOON WEST WIND 10 TO 20 KNOTS...STRONGEST
AROUND 23Z. CLEAR SKIES.

AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDED TAFS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...A WEAK HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BUILD OVER
THE REGION FRIDAY AND SATURDAY FOR MUCH LIGHTER AFTERNOON WIND...
FOLLOWED BY MORE WEATHER DISTURBANCES AND GUSTY AFTERNOON WEST WIND
15 TO 30 MPH SUNDAY...MONDAY...AND TUESDAY. NO PRECIPITATION IS
EXPECTED THIS PERIOD. MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITIES WILL RANGE FROM 5
TO 10 PERCENT. FAIR RECOVERY IS EXPECTED OVERNIGHT. MARGINAL FIRE
WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SUNDAY AND MONDAY AFTERNOONS DUE TO
WIND AND LOW HUMIDITY.

&&

.PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AZ...NONE.
CA...NONE.
&&

$$

VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/PHOENIX

DISCUSSION...NOLTE
AVIATION....VASQUEZ
FIRE WEATHER...VASQUEZ



000
FXUS65 KPSR 011046
AFDPSR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PHOENIX AZ
345 AM MST WED APR 1 2015

.UPDATE...AVIATION AND FIRE WEATHER DISCUSSIONS.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
A DRY WEATHER SYSTEM WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION FROM THE GREAT BASIN
LATE TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...USHERING IN COOLER TEMPERATURES AND
INCREASING WINDS. DRY CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN THROUGH THE WEEKEND
WITH CONTINUED ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WITH DAYTIME HIGHS IN THE
UPPER 80S TO LOW 90S. AN ACTIVE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN WILL LINGER OVER
THE WEST INTO NEXT WEEK...RESULTING IN NEAR OR POSSIBLY EVEN BELOW
NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR OUR AFTERNOONS AND MILD MORNINGS.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
ANOTHER MILD MORNING UNDERWAY OVER THE AZ/SE CA DESERTS WITH MANY
LOCATIONS ABOUT 3 TO 8 DEGREES WARMER THAN THIS TIME TUESDAY AM.
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND SURFACE ANALYSIS ALREADY INDICATE THE
ADVANCEMENT OF DRIER AIR INTO THE REGION FROM THE WEST...WITH
DEWPOINT READINGS ALREADY INTO THE 20S AND 10S ACROSS PORTIONS
OF SE CA AND SOUTHERN NV. THIS INITIAL BATCH OF DRY AIR WILL
DROP PWAT REGIONS ACROSS THE REGION TO NEAR QUARTER INCH READINGS
BY THIS EVENING. WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT AND SLIGHTLY LOWERED HEIGHTS
WILL ALLOW OUR STREAK OF RECORD SETTING TEMPERATURES TO COME TO A
WRAP...WITH DAYTIME HIGHS TODAY IN THE LOW 90S ACROSS THE LOWER
DESERTS AND LOW 80S FOR LOCALES ACROSS SOUTHERN GILA COUNTY AND
JOSHUA TREE NP.

MULTIPLE SHORTWAVE AND LOW FEATURES DOT THE NORTH PACIFIC UPSTREAM
AND WILL GENERATE A MORE PROGRESSIVE FLOW PATTERN OVER THE WESTERN
CONUS FOR THE NEXT WEEK OR SO. THE NEXT SHORTWAVE OF INTEREST THAT
WILL IMPACT THE SOUTHWEST STATES IS RIGHT OVER NORTHERN B.C.
AND THE ALEXANDER ARCHIPELAGO IN SE ALASKA...WITH HEIGHTS STRETCHING
BACK OUT OVER THE PACIFIC NEAR 40N/135W. THIS SYSTEM WILL EXPAND
SOUTHWARD AND MOVE ON-SHORE OVER CALIFORNIA AND INTO THE SOUTHERN
GREAT BASIN LATER TODAY AND INTO THURSDAY...DRAWING FURTHER AIRMASS
DRYING AND MILD CAA DOWN INTO THE SOUTHWEST STATES.

UL JET ORIENTATION AND SPEED AMPLIFICATION ALONG WITH POCKETS OF
DEEPER MIXING REALLY TARGET NE AZ/FOUR CORNERS REGION FOR THE
STRONGEST WINDS AND LIKELY AREAS OF CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS
FOR THIS EVENT. NORTHERLY WINDS ACROSS SE CA AND LOWER CO RIVER
VALLEY 15 TO 25 MPH WITH GUSTS 30-35 MPH WILL RESULT AS THE
SHORTWAVE BRUSHES BY TO OUR NORTH. WINDS BACK ACROSS THE LOWER AZ
DESERTS WILL RANGE IN THE 10 TO 20 MPH RANGE. AIRMASS DRYING WILL
DROP SFC DEWPOINTS INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS AND 10S BY THURSDAY
AFTN...WITH RELATIVE HUMIDITIES IN THE SINGLE DIGITS AS WELL.
MARGINAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE STILL POSSIBLE THURSDAY IN
LOCALIZED POCKETS...HOWEVER FORECASTED WIND SPEEDS ARE STILL UNDER
CRITICAL THRESHOLDS. LATE WEEK TEMPERATURES WILL COOL INTO THE
MID/UPPER 80S...WITH A SLIGHT REBOUND INTO THE LOWER 90S EXPECTED
THROUGH THE EASTER WEEKEND AS FLOW ALOFT BECOMES SOUTHWESTERLY AND
USHERS IN WARMER AIR FROM OFF THE EAST CENTRAL PACIFIC.

FORECAST SOLNS IN THE EXTENDED REMAIN IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT
THROUGH ABOUT THE MIDDAY MONDAY TIME FRAME. LONGWAVE TROUGHING HOLDS
OVER MUCH OF THE WEST WITH EMBEDDED SHORTWAVE PASSING THROUGH THE
REGION TO OUR NORTH. AFTER MONDAY...A MORE ORGANIZED PACIFIC LOW IS
PROGGED TO DEVELOP OVER THE PACIFIC NW AND THEN EXPAND DOWN THE WEST
COAST. OUT OF THE 00Z OPERATIONS GUIDANCE...THE ECMWF SOLN IS THE
COLDEST AND DEEPEST SWEEPING THE SYSTEM THROUGH AZ AS A CUT-OFF LOW.
THE GFS/GEM SOLNS FAVOR A MORE OPEN WAVE WITH A LESSER SOUTHERN
EXTENT. ENSEMBLE SPREAD REMAINS HIGH...PARTICULARLY OVER THE
NORTHEAST PACIFIC AND OVER THE PACIFIC NW WITH THE GENESIS OF THIS
SYSTEM. TAKING A MEDIAN VALUE FORECAST OF ALL AVAILABLE TEMPERATURE
GUIDANCE ALONG WITH A HEAVY BLEND OF CONSENSUS GUIDANCE RESULTS IN
THE POSSIBILITY OF BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES DURING THE MIDDLE OF
NEXT WEEK. NORMALS FOR THIS PERIOD IN PHOENIX AND YUMA ARE 82/83 AND
84/85 DEGREES RESPECTIVELY. CONFIDENCE IS MARGINAL IN THESE FORECAST
VALUES AND EVEN LOWER IN THE TIMING AND MOVEMENT OF THE WEATHER
SYSTEM RESPONSIBLE FOR THE COOL DOWN. DESPITE THE DEPTH
DIFFERENCES...ALL SOLNS ATTM INDICATE THIS SYSTEMS WILL GNLY BE ON
THE DRIER SIDE. SOME MOISTURE MAY WORK INTO EASTERN AZ/MOGOLLON RIM
AND COULD RESULT IN SOME PRECIP ACTIVITY. SLIGHT BLEND OF (ABOUT 5
PERCENT OVER EACH 12 HR PERIOD) WAS WORKED INTO THE EXTENDED POP
GRIDS. RESULTING POPS DO NOT GENERATE ANY SENSIBLE WEATHER...BUT AT
LEAST A TREND WAS INTRODUCED FOR THE MIDDLE PARTS OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION... SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA INCLUDING KPHX...KIWA...AND
KSDL...AND SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA AND SOUTHWEST ARIZONA INCLUDING KIPL
AND KBLH...

A DRY WEATHER DISTURBANCE WILL APPROACH NORTHERN ARIZONA TODAY
RESULTING IN GUSTY AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING WEST WINDS OVER MOST OF
SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH CENTRAL ARIZONA. THROUGH 18Z WED...CLEAR SKIES.
LIGHT AND VARIABLE WIND UNDER 8 KNOTS. FROM 18Z WED THROUGH 03Z
THU...INCREASING AFTERNOON WEST WIND 10 TO 20 KNOTS...STRONGEST
AROUND 23Z. CLEAR SKIES.

AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDED TAFS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...A WEAK HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BUILD OVER
THE REGION FRIDAY AND SATURDAY FOR MUCH LIGHTER AFTERNOON WIND...
FOLLOWED BY MORE WEATHER DISTURBANCES AND GUSTY AFTERNOON WEST WIND
15 TO 30 MPH SUNDAY...MONDAY...AND TUESDAY. NO PRECIPITATION IS
EXPECTED THIS PERIOD. MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITIES WILL RANGE FROM 5
TO 10 PERCENT. FAIR RECOVERY IS EXPECTED OVERNIGHT. MARGINAL FIRE
WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SUNDAY AND MONDAY AFTERNOONS DUE TO
WIND AND LOW HUMIDITY.

&&

.PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AZ...NONE.
CA...NONE.
&&

$$

VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/PHOENIX

DISCUSSION...NOLTE
AVIATION....VASQUEZ
FIRE WEATHER...VASQUEZ




000
FXUS65 KPSR 011046
AFDPSR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PHOENIX AZ
345 AM MST WED APR 1 2015

.UPDATE...AVIATION AND FIRE WEATHER DISCUSSIONS.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
A DRY WEATHER SYSTEM WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION FROM THE GREAT BASIN
LATE TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...USHERING IN COOLER TEMPERATURES AND
INCREASING WINDS. DRY CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN THROUGH THE WEEKEND
WITH CONTINUED ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WITH DAYTIME HIGHS IN THE
UPPER 80S TO LOW 90S. AN ACTIVE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN WILL LINGER OVER
THE WEST INTO NEXT WEEK...RESULTING IN NEAR OR POSSIBLY EVEN BELOW
NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR OUR AFTERNOONS AND MILD MORNINGS.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
ANOTHER MILD MORNING UNDERWAY OVER THE AZ/SE CA DESERTS WITH MANY
LOCATIONS ABOUT 3 TO 8 DEGREES WARMER THAN THIS TIME TUESDAY AM.
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND SURFACE ANALYSIS ALREADY INDICATE THE
ADVANCEMENT OF DRIER AIR INTO THE REGION FROM THE WEST...WITH
DEWPOINT READINGS ALREADY INTO THE 20S AND 10S ACROSS PORTIONS
OF SE CA AND SOUTHERN NV. THIS INITIAL BATCH OF DRY AIR WILL
DROP PWAT REGIONS ACROSS THE REGION TO NEAR QUARTER INCH READINGS
BY THIS EVENING. WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT AND SLIGHTLY LOWERED HEIGHTS
WILL ALLOW OUR STREAK OF RECORD SETTING TEMPERATURES TO COME TO A
WRAP...WITH DAYTIME HIGHS TODAY IN THE LOW 90S ACROSS THE LOWER
DESERTS AND LOW 80S FOR LOCALES ACROSS SOUTHERN GILA COUNTY AND
JOSHUA TREE NP.

MULTIPLE SHORTWAVE AND LOW FEATURES DOT THE NORTH PACIFIC UPSTREAM
AND WILL GENERATE A MORE PROGRESSIVE FLOW PATTERN OVER THE WESTERN
CONUS FOR THE NEXT WEEK OR SO. THE NEXT SHORTWAVE OF INTEREST THAT
WILL IMPACT THE SOUTHWEST STATES IS RIGHT OVER NORTHERN B.C.
AND THE ALEXANDER ARCHIPELAGO IN SE ALASKA...WITH HEIGHTS STRETCHING
BACK OUT OVER THE PACIFIC NEAR 40N/135W. THIS SYSTEM WILL EXPAND
SOUTHWARD AND MOVE ON-SHORE OVER CALIFORNIA AND INTO THE SOUTHERN
GREAT BASIN LATER TODAY AND INTO THURSDAY...DRAWING FURTHER AIRMASS
DRYING AND MILD CAA DOWN INTO THE SOUTHWEST STATES.

UL JET ORIENTATION AND SPEED AMPLIFICATION ALONG WITH POCKETS OF
DEEPER MIXING REALLY TARGET NE AZ/FOUR CORNERS REGION FOR THE
STRONGEST WINDS AND LIKELY AREAS OF CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS
FOR THIS EVENT. NORTHERLY WINDS ACROSS SE CA AND LOWER CO RIVER
VALLEY 15 TO 25 MPH WITH GUSTS 30-35 MPH WILL RESULT AS THE
SHORTWAVE BRUSHES BY TO OUR NORTH. WINDS BACK ACROSS THE LOWER AZ
DESERTS WILL RANGE IN THE 10 TO 20 MPH RANGE. AIRMASS DRYING WILL
DROP SFC DEWPOINTS INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS AND 10S BY THURSDAY
AFTN...WITH RELATIVE HUMIDITIES IN THE SINGLE DIGITS AS WELL.
MARGINAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE STILL POSSIBLE THURSDAY IN
LOCALIZED POCKETS...HOWEVER FORECASTED WIND SPEEDS ARE STILL UNDER
CRITICAL THRESHOLDS. LATE WEEK TEMPERATURES WILL COOL INTO THE
MID/UPPER 80S...WITH A SLIGHT REBOUND INTO THE LOWER 90S EXPECTED
THROUGH THE EASTER WEEKEND AS FLOW ALOFT BECOMES SOUTHWESTERLY AND
USHERS IN WARMER AIR FROM OFF THE EAST CENTRAL PACIFIC.

FORECAST SOLNS IN THE EXTENDED REMAIN IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT
THROUGH ABOUT THE MIDDAY MONDAY TIME FRAME. LONGWAVE TROUGHING HOLDS
OVER MUCH OF THE WEST WITH EMBEDDED SHORTWAVE PASSING THROUGH THE
REGION TO OUR NORTH. AFTER MONDAY...A MORE ORGANIZED PACIFIC LOW IS
PROGGED TO DEVELOP OVER THE PACIFIC NW AND THEN EXPAND DOWN THE WEST
COAST. OUT OF THE 00Z OPERATIONS GUIDANCE...THE ECMWF SOLN IS THE
COLDEST AND DEEPEST SWEEPING THE SYSTEM THROUGH AZ AS A CUT-OFF LOW.
THE GFS/GEM SOLNS FAVOR A MORE OPEN WAVE WITH A LESSER SOUTHERN
EXTENT. ENSEMBLE SPREAD REMAINS HIGH...PARTICULARLY OVER THE
NORTHEAST PACIFIC AND OVER THE PACIFIC NW WITH THE GENESIS OF THIS
SYSTEM. TAKING A MEDIAN VALUE FORECAST OF ALL AVAILABLE TEMPERATURE
GUIDANCE ALONG WITH A HEAVY BLEND OF CONSENSUS GUIDANCE RESULTS IN
THE POSSIBILITY OF BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES DURING THE MIDDLE OF
NEXT WEEK. NORMALS FOR THIS PERIOD IN PHOENIX AND YUMA ARE 82/83 AND
84/85 DEGREES RESPECTIVELY. CONFIDENCE IS MARGINAL IN THESE FORECAST
VALUES AND EVEN LOWER IN THE TIMING AND MOVEMENT OF THE WEATHER
SYSTEM RESPONSIBLE FOR THE COOL DOWN. DESPITE THE DEPTH
DIFFERENCES...ALL SOLNS ATTM INDICATE THIS SYSTEMS WILL GNLY BE ON
THE DRIER SIDE. SOME MOISTURE MAY WORK INTO EASTERN AZ/MOGOLLON RIM
AND COULD RESULT IN SOME PRECIP ACTIVITY. SLIGHT BLEND OF (ABOUT 5
PERCENT OVER EACH 12 HR PERIOD) WAS WORKED INTO THE EXTENDED POP
GRIDS. RESULTING POPS DO NOT GENERATE ANY SENSIBLE WEATHER...BUT AT
LEAST A TREND WAS INTRODUCED FOR THE MIDDLE PARTS OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION... SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA INCLUDING KPHX...KIWA...AND
KSDL...AND SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA AND SOUTHWEST ARIZONA INCLUDING KIPL
AND KBLH...

A DRY WEATHER DISTURBANCE WILL APPROACH NORTHERN ARIZONA TODAY
RESULTING IN GUSTY AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING WEST WINDS OVER MOST OF
SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH CENTRAL ARIZONA. THROUGH 18Z WED...CLEAR SKIES.
LIGHT AND VARIABLE WIND UNDER 8 KNOTS. FROM 18Z WED THROUGH 03Z
THU...INCREASING AFTERNOON WEST WIND 10 TO 20 KNOTS...STRONGEST
AROUND 23Z. CLEAR SKIES.

AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDED TAFS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...A WEAK HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BUILD OVER
THE REGION FRIDAY AND SATURDAY FOR MUCH LIGHTER AFTERNOON WIND...
FOLLOWED BY MORE WEATHER DISTURBANCES AND GUSTY AFTERNOON WEST WIND
15 TO 30 MPH SUNDAY...MONDAY...AND TUESDAY. NO PRECIPITATION IS
EXPECTED THIS PERIOD. MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITIES WILL RANGE FROM 5
TO 10 PERCENT. FAIR RECOVERY IS EXPECTED OVERNIGHT. MARGINAL FIRE
WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SUNDAY AND MONDAY AFTERNOONS DUE TO
WIND AND LOW HUMIDITY.

&&

.PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AZ...NONE.
CA...NONE.
&&

$$

VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/PHOENIX

DISCUSSION...NOLTE
AVIATION....VASQUEZ
FIRE WEATHER...VASQUEZ



000
FXUS65 KFGZ 011035
AFDFGZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ
330 AM MST WED MAR 31 2015

.SYNOPSIS...LOOK FOR DRY WEATHER TO CONTINUE THROUGH NEXT TUESDAY.
TEMPS WILL START A SLIGHT COOLING TREND. GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS ARE
EXPECTED TODAY AND THURSDAY AND POSSIBLY AGAIN SUNDAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
EXPECT DRY WEATHER ACROSS NORTHERN ARIZONA THROUGH NEXT TUESDAY.

WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT THIS MORNING HAS BROUGHT MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES TO
NORTHERN AZ. SW SFC WINDS HAVE BEEN BLOWING ALL NIGHT AS A DRY SFC
FRONT MOVES SWRD THROUGH THE GREAT BASIN. THIS FRONT TO HANG UP IN
SRN UTAH TODAY THEN MOVE THROUGH NORTHERN AZ THURSDAY AFTERNOON.
WE SHOULD EXPECT SW WIND GUSTS IN THE 25-35 MPH RANGE TODAY AND 35
TO 45 MPH RANGE THURSDAY. THE FASTEST WINDS TO BE ALONG AND NORTH OF
THE MOGOLLON RIM. WINDS TONIGHT SHOULD AGAIN BE UP AND MIN TEMPS FOR
THURSDAY MORNING WERE RAISED SEVERAL DEGREES. SFC WINDS TO BECOME
WEST NORTHWEST WITH DECREASING SPEEDS LATE THURSDAY AFTERNOON ACROSS
COCONINO AND YAVAPAI COUNTIES BUT REMAIN GUSTY IN APACHE COUNTY
THROUGH SUNSET. LOOK FOR FAIR WEATHER FRIDAY WITH BREEZY EAST WINDS.

FOR SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY... SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW SHOULD INCREASE
HERE AS A TROUGH MOVES INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. BREEZY TO WINDY
CONDITIONS LOOKS LIKELY WITH THE FASTEST SPEEDS ON SUNDAY...WINDS
FROM THE SW GUSTING 35 TO 45 MPH.

&&
.AVIATION...FOR THE 12Z PACKAGE...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST OVER
THE NEXT 24 HOURS. IN RESPONSE TO AN APPROACHING WEATHER DISTURBANCE
LOOK FOR SW WINDS 10-20 KTS GUSTING TO 30 KTS FROM 18Z-02Z. AFTER
02Z...WINDS GENERALLY SW 5-15 KT BUT LOCAL GUSTS TO 30 KTS POSSIBLE
DOWN WIND OF TERRAIN FEATURES. AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR
TAF AMENDMENTS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...EXPECT INCREASING WINDS THIS AFTERNOON AND THURSDAY
AS A DRY WEATHER SYSTEM MOVES ACROSS ARIZONA. ON THURSDAY STRONGER
WINDS ALONG WITH LOW HUMIDITY WILL LIKELY BRING CRITICAL FIRE
WEATHER CONDITIONS TO PORTIONS OF NORTHEASTERN ARIZONA. A FIRE
WEATHER WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FROM THE MOGOLLON RIM NORTH TO THE
UTAH BORDER REGION.

FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...WIND SPEEDS WILL WEAKEN ON FRIDAY BEFORE
ANOTHER WEATHER SYSTEM BRINGS DRY AND WINDY CONDITIONS OVER THE
WEEKEND. CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS LOOK LIKELY, ESPECIALLY ON
SUNDAY.

&&

.FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY
EVENING FOR AZZ109>114-116-117-139-140.

&&

$$

PUBLIC.........DL
AVIATION.......MCCOLLUM
FIRE WEATHER...MCCOLLUM

FOR NORTHERN ARIZONA WEATHER INFORMATION VISIT
WEATHER.GOV/FLAGSTAFF






000
FXUS65 KFGZ 011035
AFDFGZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ
330 AM MST WED MAR 31 2015

.SYNOPSIS...LOOK FOR DRY WEATHER TO CONTINUE THROUGH NEXT TUESDAY.
TEMPS WILL START A SLIGHT COOLING TREND. GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS ARE
EXPECTED TODAY AND THURSDAY AND POSSIBLY AGAIN SUNDAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
EXPECT DRY WEATHER ACROSS NORTHERN ARIZONA THROUGH NEXT TUESDAY.

WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT THIS MORNING HAS BROUGHT MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES TO
NORTHERN AZ. SW SFC WINDS HAVE BEEN BLOWING ALL NIGHT AS A DRY SFC
FRONT MOVES SWRD THROUGH THE GREAT BASIN. THIS FRONT TO HANG UP IN
SRN UTAH TODAY THEN MOVE THROUGH NORTHERN AZ THURSDAY AFTERNOON.
WE SHOULD EXPECT SW WIND GUSTS IN THE 25-35 MPH RANGE TODAY AND 35
TO 45 MPH RANGE THURSDAY. THE FASTEST WINDS TO BE ALONG AND NORTH OF
THE MOGOLLON RIM. WINDS TONIGHT SHOULD AGAIN BE UP AND MIN TEMPS FOR
THURSDAY MORNING WERE RAISED SEVERAL DEGREES. SFC WINDS TO BECOME
WEST NORTHWEST WITH DECREASING SPEEDS LATE THURSDAY AFTERNOON ACROSS
COCONINO AND YAVAPAI COUNTIES BUT REMAIN GUSTY IN APACHE COUNTY
THROUGH SUNSET. LOOK FOR FAIR WEATHER FRIDAY WITH BREEZY EAST WINDS.

FOR SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY... SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW SHOULD INCREASE
HERE AS A TROUGH MOVES INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. BREEZY TO WINDY
CONDITIONS LOOKS LIKELY WITH THE FASTEST SPEEDS ON SUNDAY...WINDS
FROM THE SW GUSTING 35 TO 45 MPH.

&&
.AVIATION...FOR THE 12Z PACKAGE...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST OVER
THE NEXT 24 HOURS. IN RESPONSE TO AN APPROACHING WEATHER DISTURBANCE
LOOK FOR SW WINDS 10-20 KTS GUSTING TO 30 KTS FROM 18Z-02Z. AFTER
02Z...WINDS GENERALLY SW 5-15 KT BUT LOCAL GUSTS TO 30 KTS POSSIBLE
DOWN WIND OF TERRAIN FEATURES. AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR
TAF AMENDMENTS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...EXPECT INCREASING WINDS THIS AFTERNOON AND THURSDAY
AS A DRY WEATHER SYSTEM MOVES ACROSS ARIZONA. ON THURSDAY STRONGER
WINDS ALONG WITH LOW HUMIDITY WILL LIKELY BRING CRITICAL FIRE
WEATHER CONDITIONS TO PORTIONS OF NORTHEASTERN ARIZONA. A FIRE
WEATHER WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FROM THE MOGOLLON RIM NORTH TO THE
UTAH BORDER REGION.

FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...WIND SPEEDS WILL WEAKEN ON FRIDAY BEFORE
ANOTHER WEATHER SYSTEM BRINGS DRY AND WINDY CONDITIONS OVER THE
WEEKEND. CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS LOOK LIKELY, ESPECIALLY ON
SUNDAY.

&&

.FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY
EVENING FOR AZZ109>114-116-117-139-140.

&&

$$

PUBLIC.........DL
AVIATION.......MCCOLLUM
FIRE WEATHER...MCCOLLUM

FOR NORTHERN ARIZONA WEATHER INFORMATION VISIT
WEATHER.GOV/FLAGSTAFF







000
FXUS65 KFGZ 011035
AFDFGZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ
330 AM MST WED MAR 31 2015

.SYNOPSIS...LOOK FOR DRY WEATHER TO CONTINUE THROUGH NEXT TUESDAY.
TEMPS WILL START A SLIGHT COOLING TREND. GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS ARE
EXPECTED TODAY AND THURSDAY AND POSSIBLY AGAIN SUNDAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
EXPECT DRY WEATHER ACROSS NORTHERN ARIZONA THROUGH NEXT TUESDAY.

WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT THIS MORNING HAS BROUGHT MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES TO
NORTHERN AZ. SW SFC WINDS HAVE BEEN BLOWING ALL NIGHT AS A DRY SFC
FRONT MOVES SWRD THROUGH THE GREAT BASIN. THIS FRONT TO HANG UP IN
SRN UTAH TODAY THEN MOVE THROUGH NORTHERN AZ THURSDAY AFTERNOON.
WE SHOULD EXPECT SW WIND GUSTS IN THE 25-35 MPH RANGE TODAY AND 35
TO 45 MPH RANGE THURSDAY. THE FASTEST WINDS TO BE ALONG AND NORTH OF
THE MOGOLLON RIM. WINDS TONIGHT SHOULD AGAIN BE UP AND MIN TEMPS FOR
THURSDAY MORNING WERE RAISED SEVERAL DEGREES. SFC WINDS TO BECOME
WEST NORTHWEST WITH DECREASING SPEEDS LATE THURSDAY AFTERNOON ACROSS
COCONINO AND YAVAPAI COUNTIES BUT REMAIN GUSTY IN APACHE COUNTY
THROUGH SUNSET. LOOK FOR FAIR WEATHER FRIDAY WITH BREEZY EAST WINDS.

FOR SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY... SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW SHOULD INCREASE
HERE AS A TROUGH MOVES INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. BREEZY TO WINDY
CONDITIONS LOOKS LIKELY WITH THE FASTEST SPEEDS ON SUNDAY...WINDS
FROM THE SW GUSTING 35 TO 45 MPH.

&&
.AVIATION...FOR THE 12Z PACKAGE...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST OVER
THE NEXT 24 HOURS. IN RESPONSE TO AN APPROACHING WEATHER DISTURBANCE
LOOK FOR SW WINDS 10-20 KTS GUSTING TO 30 KTS FROM 18Z-02Z. AFTER
02Z...WINDS GENERALLY SW 5-15 KT BUT LOCAL GUSTS TO 30 KTS POSSIBLE
DOWN WIND OF TERRAIN FEATURES. AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR
TAF AMENDMENTS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...EXPECT INCREASING WINDS THIS AFTERNOON AND THURSDAY
AS A DRY WEATHER SYSTEM MOVES ACROSS ARIZONA. ON THURSDAY STRONGER
WINDS ALONG WITH LOW HUMIDITY WILL LIKELY BRING CRITICAL FIRE
WEATHER CONDITIONS TO PORTIONS OF NORTHEASTERN ARIZONA. A FIRE
WEATHER WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FROM THE MOGOLLON RIM NORTH TO THE
UTAH BORDER REGION.

FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...WIND SPEEDS WILL WEAKEN ON FRIDAY BEFORE
ANOTHER WEATHER SYSTEM BRINGS DRY AND WINDY CONDITIONS OVER THE
WEEKEND. CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS LOOK LIKELY, ESPECIALLY ON
SUNDAY.

&&

.FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY
EVENING FOR AZZ109>114-116-117-139-140.

&&

$$

PUBLIC.........DL
AVIATION.......MCCOLLUM
FIRE WEATHER...MCCOLLUM

FOR NORTHERN ARIZONA WEATHER INFORMATION VISIT
WEATHER.GOV/FLAGSTAFF







000
FXUS65 KFGZ 011035
AFDFGZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ
330 AM MST WED MAR 31 2015

.SYNOPSIS...LOOK FOR DRY WEATHER TO CONTINUE THROUGH NEXT TUESDAY.
TEMPS WILL START A SLIGHT COOLING TREND. GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS ARE
EXPECTED TODAY AND THURSDAY AND POSSIBLY AGAIN SUNDAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
EXPECT DRY WEATHER ACROSS NORTHERN ARIZONA THROUGH NEXT TUESDAY.

WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT THIS MORNING HAS BROUGHT MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES TO
NORTHERN AZ. SW SFC WINDS HAVE BEEN BLOWING ALL NIGHT AS A DRY SFC
FRONT MOVES SWRD THROUGH THE GREAT BASIN. THIS FRONT TO HANG UP IN
SRN UTAH TODAY THEN MOVE THROUGH NORTHERN AZ THURSDAY AFTERNOON.
WE SHOULD EXPECT SW WIND GUSTS IN THE 25-35 MPH RANGE TODAY AND 35
TO 45 MPH RANGE THURSDAY. THE FASTEST WINDS TO BE ALONG AND NORTH OF
THE MOGOLLON RIM. WINDS TONIGHT SHOULD AGAIN BE UP AND MIN TEMPS FOR
THURSDAY MORNING WERE RAISED SEVERAL DEGREES. SFC WINDS TO BECOME
WEST NORTHWEST WITH DECREASING SPEEDS LATE THURSDAY AFTERNOON ACROSS
COCONINO AND YAVAPAI COUNTIES BUT REMAIN GUSTY IN APACHE COUNTY
THROUGH SUNSET. LOOK FOR FAIR WEATHER FRIDAY WITH BREEZY EAST WINDS.

FOR SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY... SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW SHOULD INCREASE
HERE AS A TROUGH MOVES INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. BREEZY TO WINDY
CONDITIONS LOOKS LIKELY WITH THE FASTEST SPEEDS ON SUNDAY...WINDS
FROM THE SW GUSTING 35 TO 45 MPH.

&&
.AVIATION...FOR THE 12Z PACKAGE...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST OVER
THE NEXT 24 HOURS. IN RESPONSE TO AN APPROACHING WEATHER DISTURBANCE
LOOK FOR SW WINDS 10-20 KTS GUSTING TO 30 KTS FROM 18Z-02Z. AFTER
02Z...WINDS GENERALLY SW 5-15 KT BUT LOCAL GUSTS TO 30 KTS POSSIBLE
DOWN WIND OF TERRAIN FEATURES. AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR
TAF AMENDMENTS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...EXPECT INCREASING WINDS THIS AFTERNOON AND THURSDAY
AS A DRY WEATHER SYSTEM MOVES ACROSS ARIZONA. ON THURSDAY STRONGER
WINDS ALONG WITH LOW HUMIDITY WILL LIKELY BRING CRITICAL FIRE
WEATHER CONDITIONS TO PORTIONS OF NORTHEASTERN ARIZONA. A FIRE
WEATHER WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FROM THE MOGOLLON RIM NORTH TO THE
UTAH BORDER REGION.

FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...WIND SPEEDS WILL WEAKEN ON FRIDAY BEFORE
ANOTHER WEATHER SYSTEM BRINGS DRY AND WINDY CONDITIONS OVER THE
WEEKEND. CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS LOOK LIKELY, ESPECIALLY ON
SUNDAY.

&&

.FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY
EVENING FOR AZZ109>114-116-117-139-140.

&&

$$

PUBLIC.........DL
AVIATION.......MCCOLLUM
FIRE WEATHER...MCCOLLUM

FOR NORTHERN ARIZONA WEATHER INFORMATION VISIT
WEATHER.GOV/FLAGSTAFF







000
FXUS65 KFGZ 011035
AFDFGZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ
330 AM MST WED MAR 31 2015

.SYNOPSIS...LOOK FOR DRY WEATHER TO CONTINUE THROUGH NEXT TUESDAY.
TEMPS WILL START A SLIGHT COOLING TREND. GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS ARE
EXPECTED TODAY AND THURSDAY AND POSSIBLY AGAIN SUNDAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
EXPECT DRY WEATHER ACROSS NORTHERN ARIZONA THROUGH NEXT TUESDAY.

WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT THIS MORNING HAS BROUGHT MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES TO
NORTHERN AZ. SW SFC WINDS HAVE BEEN BLOWING ALL NIGHT AS A DRY SFC
FRONT MOVES SWRD THROUGH THE GREAT BASIN. THIS FRONT TO HANG UP IN
SRN UTAH TODAY THEN MOVE THROUGH NORTHERN AZ THURSDAY AFTERNOON.
WE SHOULD EXPECT SW WIND GUSTS IN THE 25-35 MPH RANGE TODAY AND 35
TO 45 MPH RANGE THURSDAY. THE FASTEST WINDS TO BE ALONG AND NORTH OF
THE MOGOLLON RIM. WINDS TONIGHT SHOULD AGAIN BE UP AND MIN TEMPS FOR
THURSDAY MORNING WERE RAISED SEVERAL DEGREES. SFC WINDS TO BECOME
WEST NORTHWEST WITH DECREASING SPEEDS LATE THURSDAY AFTERNOON ACROSS
COCONINO AND YAVAPAI COUNTIES BUT REMAIN GUSTY IN APACHE COUNTY
THROUGH SUNSET. LOOK FOR FAIR WEATHER FRIDAY WITH BREEZY EAST WINDS.

FOR SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY... SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW SHOULD INCREASE
HERE AS A TROUGH MOVES INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. BREEZY TO WINDY
CONDITIONS LOOKS LIKELY WITH THE FASTEST SPEEDS ON SUNDAY...WINDS
FROM THE SW GUSTING 35 TO 45 MPH.

&&
.AVIATION...FOR THE 12Z PACKAGE...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST OVER
THE NEXT 24 HOURS. IN RESPONSE TO AN APPROACHING WEATHER DISTURBANCE
LOOK FOR SW WINDS 10-20 KTS GUSTING TO 30 KTS FROM 18Z-02Z. AFTER
02Z...WINDS GENERALLY SW 5-15 KT BUT LOCAL GUSTS TO 30 KTS POSSIBLE
DOWN WIND OF TERRAIN FEATURES. AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR
TAF AMENDMENTS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...EXPECT INCREASING WINDS THIS AFTERNOON AND THURSDAY
AS A DRY WEATHER SYSTEM MOVES ACROSS ARIZONA. ON THURSDAY STRONGER
WINDS ALONG WITH LOW HUMIDITY WILL LIKELY BRING CRITICAL FIRE
WEATHER CONDITIONS TO PORTIONS OF NORTHEASTERN ARIZONA. A FIRE
WEATHER WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FROM THE MOGOLLON RIM NORTH TO THE
UTAH BORDER REGION.

FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...WIND SPEEDS WILL WEAKEN ON FRIDAY BEFORE
ANOTHER WEATHER SYSTEM BRINGS DRY AND WINDY CONDITIONS OVER THE
WEEKEND. CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS LOOK LIKELY, ESPECIALLY ON
SUNDAY.

&&

.FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY
EVENING FOR AZZ109>114-116-117-139-140.

&&

$$

PUBLIC.........DL
AVIATION.......MCCOLLUM
FIRE WEATHER...MCCOLLUM

FOR NORTHERN ARIZONA WEATHER INFORMATION VISIT
WEATHER.GOV/FLAGSTAFF







000
FXUS65 KFGZ 011035
AFDFGZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ
330 AM MST WED MAR 31 2015

.SYNOPSIS...LOOK FOR DRY WEATHER TO CONTINUE THROUGH NEXT TUESDAY.
TEMPS WILL START A SLIGHT COOLING TREND. GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS ARE
EXPECTED TODAY AND THURSDAY AND POSSIBLY AGAIN SUNDAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
EXPECT DRY WEATHER ACROSS NORTHERN ARIZONA THROUGH NEXT TUESDAY.

WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT THIS MORNING HAS BROUGHT MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES TO
NORTHERN AZ. SW SFC WINDS HAVE BEEN BLOWING ALL NIGHT AS A DRY SFC
FRONT MOVES SWRD THROUGH THE GREAT BASIN. THIS FRONT TO HANG UP IN
SRN UTAH TODAY THEN MOVE THROUGH NORTHERN AZ THURSDAY AFTERNOON.
WE SHOULD EXPECT SW WIND GUSTS IN THE 25-35 MPH RANGE TODAY AND 35
TO 45 MPH RANGE THURSDAY. THE FASTEST WINDS TO BE ALONG AND NORTH OF
THE MOGOLLON RIM. WINDS TONIGHT SHOULD AGAIN BE UP AND MIN TEMPS FOR
THURSDAY MORNING WERE RAISED SEVERAL DEGREES. SFC WINDS TO BECOME
WEST NORTHWEST WITH DECREASING SPEEDS LATE THURSDAY AFTERNOON ACROSS
COCONINO AND YAVAPAI COUNTIES BUT REMAIN GUSTY IN APACHE COUNTY
THROUGH SUNSET. LOOK FOR FAIR WEATHER FRIDAY WITH BREEZY EAST WINDS.

FOR SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY... SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW SHOULD INCREASE
HERE AS A TROUGH MOVES INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. BREEZY TO WINDY
CONDITIONS LOOKS LIKELY WITH THE FASTEST SPEEDS ON SUNDAY...WINDS
FROM THE SW GUSTING 35 TO 45 MPH.

&&
.AVIATION...FOR THE 12Z PACKAGE...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST OVER
THE NEXT 24 HOURS. IN RESPONSE TO AN APPROACHING WEATHER DISTURBANCE
LOOK FOR SW WINDS 10-20 KTS GUSTING TO 30 KTS FROM 18Z-02Z. AFTER
02Z...WINDS GENERALLY SW 5-15 KT BUT LOCAL GUSTS TO 30 KTS POSSIBLE
DOWN WIND OF TERRAIN FEATURES. AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR
TAF AMENDMENTS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...EXPECT INCREASING WINDS THIS AFTERNOON AND THURSDAY
AS A DRY WEATHER SYSTEM MOVES ACROSS ARIZONA. ON THURSDAY STRONGER
WINDS ALONG WITH LOW HUMIDITY WILL LIKELY BRING CRITICAL FIRE
WEATHER CONDITIONS TO PORTIONS OF NORTHEASTERN ARIZONA. A FIRE
WEATHER WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FROM THE MOGOLLON RIM NORTH TO THE
UTAH BORDER REGION.

FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...WIND SPEEDS WILL WEAKEN ON FRIDAY BEFORE
ANOTHER WEATHER SYSTEM BRINGS DRY AND WINDY CONDITIONS OVER THE
WEEKEND. CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS LOOK LIKELY, ESPECIALLY ON
SUNDAY.

&&

.FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY
EVENING FOR AZZ109>114-116-117-139-140.

&&

$$

PUBLIC.........DL
AVIATION.......MCCOLLUM
FIRE WEATHER...MCCOLLUM

FOR NORTHERN ARIZONA WEATHER INFORMATION VISIT
WEATHER.GOV/FLAGSTAFF







000
FXUS65 KFGZ 011035
AFDFGZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ
330 AM MST WED MAR 31 2015

.SYNOPSIS...LOOK FOR DRY WEATHER TO CONTINUE THROUGH NEXT TUESDAY.
TEMPS WILL START A SLIGHT COOLING TREND. GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS ARE
EXPECTED TODAY AND THURSDAY AND POSSIBLY AGAIN SUNDAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
EXPECT DRY WEATHER ACROSS NORTHERN ARIZONA THROUGH NEXT TUESDAY.

WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT THIS MORNING HAS BROUGHT MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES TO
NORTHERN AZ. SW SFC WINDS HAVE BEEN BLOWING ALL NIGHT AS A DRY SFC
FRONT MOVES SWRD THROUGH THE GREAT BASIN. THIS FRONT TO HANG UP IN
SRN UTAH TODAY THEN MOVE THROUGH NORTHERN AZ THURSDAY AFTERNOON.
WE SHOULD EXPECT SW WIND GUSTS IN THE 25-35 MPH RANGE TODAY AND 35
TO 45 MPH RANGE THURSDAY. THE FASTEST WINDS TO BE ALONG AND NORTH OF
THE MOGOLLON RIM. WINDS TONIGHT SHOULD AGAIN BE UP AND MIN TEMPS FOR
THURSDAY MORNING WERE RAISED SEVERAL DEGREES. SFC WINDS TO BECOME
WEST NORTHWEST WITH DECREASING SPEEDS LATE THURSDAY AFTERNOON ACROSS
COCONINO AND YAVAPAI COUNTIES BUT REMAIN GUSTY IN APACHE COUNTY
THROUGH SUNSET. LOOK FOR FAIR WEATHER FRIDAY WITH BREEZY EAST WINDS.

FOR SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY... SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW SHOULD INCREASE
HERE AS A TROUGH MOVES INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. BREEZY TO WINDY
CONDITIONS LOOKS LIKELY WITH THE FASTEST SPEEDS ON SUNDAY...WINDS
FROM THE SW GUSTING 35 TO 45 MPH.

&&
.AVIATION...FOR THE 12Z PACKAGE...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST OVER
THE NEXT 24 HOURS. IN RESPONSE TO AN APPROACHING WEATHER DISTURBANCE
LOOK FOR SW WINDS 10-20 KTS GUSTING TO 30 KTS FROM 18Z-02Z. AFTER
02Z...WINDS GENERALLY SW 5-15 KT BUT LOCAL GUSTS TO 30 KTS POSSIBLE
DOWN WIND OF TERRAIN FEATURES. AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR
TAF AMENDMENTS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...EXPECT INCREASING WINDS THIS AFTERNOON AND THURSDAY
AS A DRY WEATHER SYSTEM MOVES ACROSS ARIZONA. ON THURSDAY STRONGER
WINDS ALONG WITH LOW HUMIDITY WILL LIKELY BRING CRITICAL FIRE
WEATHER CONDITIONS TO PORTIONS OF NORTHEASTERN ARIZONA. A FIRE
WEATHER WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FROM THE MOGOLLON RIM NORTH TO THE
UTAH BORDER REGION.

FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...WIND SPEEDS WILL WEAKEN ON FRIDAY BEFORE
ANOTHER WEATHER SYSTEM BRINGS DRY AND WINDY CONDITIONS OVER THE
WEEKEND. CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS LOOK LIKELY, ESPECIALLY ON
SUNDAY.

&&

.FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY
EVENING FOR AZZ109>114-116-117-139-140.

&&

$$

PUBLIC.........DL
AVIATION.......MCCOLLUM
FIRE WEATHER...MCCOLLUM

FOR NORTHERN ARIZONA WEATHER INFORMATION VISIT
WEATHER.GOV/FLAGSTAFF







000
FXUS65 KFGZ 011035
AFDFGZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ
330 AM MST WED MAR 31 2015

.SYNOPSIS...LOOK FOR DRY WEATHER TO CONTINUE THROUGH NEXT TUESDAY.
TEMPS WILL START A SLIGHT COOLING TREND. GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS ARE
EXPECTED TODAY AND THURSDAY AND POSSIBLY AGAIN SUNDAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
EXPECT DRY WEATHER ACROSS NORTHERN ARIZONA THROUGH NEXT TUESDAY.

WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT THIS MORNING HAS BROUGHT MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES TO
NORTHERN AZ. SW SFC WINDS HAVE BEEN BLOWING ALL NIGHT AS A DRY SFC
FRONT MOVES SWRD THROUGH THE GREAT BASIN. THIS FRONT TO HANG UP IN
SRN UTAH TODAY THEN MOVE THROUGH NORTHERN AZ THURSDAY AFTERNOON.
WE SHOULD EXPECT SW WIND GUSTS IN THE 25-35 MPH RANGE TODAY AND 35
TO 45 MPH RANGE THURSDAY. THE FASTEST WINDS TO BE ALONG AND NORTH OF
THE MOGOLLON RIM. WINDS TONIGHT SHOULD AGAIN BE UP AND MIN TEMPS FOR
THURSDAY MORNING WERE RAISED SEVERAL DEGREES. SFC WINDS TO BECOME
WEST NORTHWEST WITH DECREASING SPEEDS LATE THURSDAY AFTERNOON ACROSS
COCONINO AND YAVAPAI COUNTIES BUT REMAIN GUSTY IN APACHE COUNTY
THROUGH SUNSET. LOOK FOR FAIR WEATHER FRIDAY WITH BREEZY EAST WINDS.

FOR SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY... SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW SHOULD INCREASE
HERE AS A TROUGH MOVES INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. BREEZY TO WINDY
CONDITIONS LOOKS LIKELY WITH THE FASTEST SPEEDS ON SUNDAY...WINDS
FROM THE SW GUSTING 35 TO 45 MPH.

&&
.AVIATION...FOR THE 12Z PACKAGE...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST OVER
THE NEXT 24 HOURS. IN RESPONSE TO AN APPROACHING WEATHER DISTURBANCE
LOOK FOR SW WINDS 10-20 KTS GUSTING TO 30 KTS FROM 18Z-02Z. AFTER
02Z...WINDS GENERALLY SW 5-15 KT BUT LOCAL GUSTS TO 30 KTS POSSIBLE
DOWN WIND OF TERRAIN FEATURES. AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR
TAF AMENDMENTS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...EXPECT INCREASING WINDS THIS AFTERNOON AND THURSDAY
AS A DRY WEATHER SYSTEM MOVES ACROSS ARIZONA. ON THURSDAY STRONGER
WINDS ALONG WITH LOW HUMIDITY WILL LIKELY BRING CRITICAL FIRE
WEATHER CONDITIONS TO PORTIONS OF NORTHEASTERN ARIZONA. A FIRE
WEATHER WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FROM THE MOGOLLON RIM NORTH TO THE
UTAH BORDER REGION.

FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...WIND SPEEDS WILL WEAKEN ON FRIDAY BEFORE
ANOTHER WEATHER SYSTEM BRINGS DRY AND WINDY CONDITIONS OVER THE
WEEKEND. CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS LOOK LIKELY, ESPECIALLY ON
SUNDAY.

&&

.FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY
EVENING FOR AZZ109>114-116-117-139-140.

&&

$$

PUBLIC.........DL
AVIATION.......MCCOLLUM
FIRE WEATHER...MCCOLLUM

FOR NORTHERN ARIZONA WEATHER INFORMATION VISIT
WEATHER.GOV/FLAGSTAFF







000
FXUS65 KFGZ 011035
AFDFGZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ
330 AM MST WED MAR 31 2015

.SYNOPSIS...LOOK FOR DRY WEATHER TO CONTINUE THROUGH NEXT TUESDAY.
TEMPS WILL START A SLIGHT COOLING TREND. GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS ARE
EXPECTED TODAY AND THURSDAY AND POSSIBLY AGAIN SUNDAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
EXPECT DRY WEATHER ACROSS NORTHERN ARIZONA THROUGH NEXT TUESDAY.

WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT THIS MORNING HAS BROUGHT MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES TO
NORTHERN AZ. SW SFC WINDS HAVE BEEN BLOWING ALL NIGHT AS A DRY SFC
FRONT MOVES SWRD THROUGH THE GREAT BASIN. THIS FRONT TO HANG UP IN
SRN UTAH TODAY THEN MOVE THROUGH NORTHERN AZ THURSDAY AFTERNOON.
WE SHOULD EXPECT SW WIND GUSTS IN THE 25-35 MPH RANGE TODAY AND 35
TO 45 MPH RANGE THURSDAY. THE FASTEST WINDS TO BE ALONG AND NORTH OF
THE MOGOLLON RIM. WINDS TONIGHT SHOULD AGAIN BE UP AND MIN TEMPS FOR
THURSDAY MORNING WERE RAISED SEVERAL DEGREES. SFC WINDS TO BECOME
WEST NORTHWEST WITH DECREASING SPEEDS LATE THURSDAY AFTERNOON ACROSS
COCONINO AND YAVAPAI COUNTIES BUT REMAIN GUSTY IN APACHE COUNTY
THROUGH SUNSET. LOOK FOR FAIR WEATHER FRIDAY WITH BREEZY EAST WINDS.

FOR SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY... SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW SHOULD INCREASE
HERE AS A TROUGH MOVES INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. BREEZY TO WINDY
CONDITIONS LOOKS LIKELY WITH THE FASTEST SPEEDS ON SUNDAY...WINDS
FROM THE SW GUSTING 35 TO 45 MPH.

&&
.AVIATION...FOR THE 12Z PACKAGE...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST OVER
THE NEXT 24 HOURS. IN RESPONSE TO AN APPROACHING WEATHER DISTURBANCE
LOOK FOR SW WINDS 10-20 KTS GUSTING TO 30 KTS FROM 18Z-02Z. AFTER
02Z...WINDS GENERALLY SW 5-15 KT BUT LOCAL GUSTS TO 30 KTS POSSIBLE
DOWN WIND OF TERRAIN FEATURES. AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR
TAF AMENDMENTS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...EXPECT INCREASING WINDS THIS AFTERNOON AND THURSDAY
AS A DRY WEATHER SYSTEM MOVES ACROSS ARIZONA. ON THURSDAY STRONGER
WINDS ALONG WITH LOW HUMIDITY WILL LIKELY BRING CRITICAL FIRE
WEATHER CONDITIONS TO PORTIONS OF NORTHEASTERN ARIZONA. A FIRE
WEATHER WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FROM THE MOGOLLON RIM NORTH TO THE
UTAH BORDER REGION.

FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...WIND SPEEDS WILL WEAKEN ON FRIDAY BEFORE
ANOTHER WEATHER SYSTEM BRINGS DRY AND WINDY CONDITIONS OVER THE
WEEKEND. CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS LOOK LIKELY, ESPECIALLY ON
SUNDAY.

&&

.FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY
EVENING FOR AZZ109>114-116-117-139-140.

&&

$$

PUBLIC.........DL
AVIATION.......MCCOLLUM
FIRE WEATHER...MCCOLLUM

FOR NORTHERN ARIZONA WEATHER INFORMATION VISIT
WEATHER.GOV/FLAGSTAFF







000
FXUS65 KFGZ 011035
AFDFGZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ
330 AM MST WED MAR 31 2015

.SYNOPSIS...LOOK FOR DRY WEATHER TO CONTINUE THROUGH NEXT TUESDAY.
TEMPS WILL START A SLIGHT COOLING TREND. GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS ARE
EXPECTED TODAY AND THURSDAY AND POSSIBLY AGAIN SUNDAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
EXPECT DRY WEATHER ACROSS NORTHERN ARIZONA THROUGH NEXT TUESDAY.

WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT THIS MORNING HAS BROUGHT MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES TO
NORTHERN AZ. SW SFC WINDS HAVE BEEN BLOWING ALL NIGHT AS A DRY SFC
FRONT MOVES SWRD THROUGH THE GREAT BASIN. THIS FRONT TO HANG UP IN
SRN UTAH TODAY THEN MOVE THROUGH NORTHERN AZ THURSDAY AFTERNOON.
WE SHOULD EXPECT SW WIND GUSTS IN THE 25-35 MPH RANGE TODAY AND 35
TO 45 MPH RANGE THURSDAY. THE FASTEST WINDS TO BE ALONG AND NORTH OF
THE MOGOLLON RIM. WINDS TONIGHT SHOULD AGAIN BE UP AND MIN TEMPS FOR
THURSDAY MORNING WERE RAISED SEVERAL DEGREES. SFC WINDS TO BECOME
WEST NORTHWEST WITH DECREASING SPEEDS LATE THURSDAY AFTERNOON ACROSS
COCONINO AND YAVAPAI COUNTIES BUT REMAIN GUSTY IN APACHE COUNTY
THROUGH SUNSET. LOOK FOR FAIR WEATHER FRIDAY WITH BREEZY EAST WINDS.

FOR SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY... SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW SHOULD INCREASE
HERE AS A TROUGH MOVES INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. BREEZY TO WINDY
CONDITIONS LOOKS LIKELY WITH THE FASTEST SPEEDS ON SUNDAY...WINDS
FROM THE SW GUSTING 35 TO 45 MPH.

&&
.AVIATION...FOR THE 12Z PACKAGE...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST OVER
THE NEXT 24 HOURS. IN RESPONSE TO AN APPROACHING WEATHER DISTURBANCE
LOOK FOR SW WINDS 10-20 KTS GUSTING TO 30 KTS FROM 18Z-02Z. AFTER
02Z...WINDS GENERALLY SW 5-15 KT BUT LOCAL GUSTS TO 30 KTS POSSIBLE
DOWN WIND OF TERRAIN FEATURES. AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR
TAF AMENDMENTS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...EXPECT INCREASING WINDS THIS AFTERNOON AND THURSDAY
AS A DRY WEATHER SYSTEM MOVES ACROSS ARIZONA. ON THURSDAY STRONGER
WINDS ALONG WITH LOW HUMIDITY WILL LIKELY BRING CRITICAL FIRE
WEATHER CONDITIONS TO PORTIONS OF NORTHEASTERN ARIZONA. A FIRE
WEATHER WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FROM THE MOGOLLON RIM NORTH TO THE
UTAH BORDER REGION.

FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...WIND SPEEDS WILL WEAKEN ON FRIDAY BEFORE
ANOTHER WEATHER SYSTEM BRINGS DRY AND WINDY CONDITIONS OVER THE
WEEKEND. CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS LOOK LIKELY, ESPECIALLY ON
SUNDAY.

&&

.FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY
EVENING FOR AZZ109>114-116-117-139-140.

&&

$$

PUBLIC.........DL
AVIATION.......MCCOLLUM
FIRE WEATHER...MCCOLLUM

FOR NORTHERN ARIZONA WEATHER INFORMATION VISIT
WEATHER.GOV/FLAGSTAFF







000
FXUS65 KTWC 011025
AFDTWC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ
325 AM MST WED APR 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...DRY CONDITIONS WITH ABOVE NORMAL DAYTIME TEMPERATURES
WILL CONTINUE INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. EXPECT BREEZY CONDITIONS TODAY
AND EVEN STRONGER WINDS THURSDAY AS A WEATHER SYSTEM MOVES NORTH OF
THE AREA. MARKEDLY LESS WIND WILL OCCUR FRIDAY...THEN MAINLY
AFTERNOON BREEZINESS WILL RETURN THIS WEEKEND. NOTICEABLY COOLER
TEMPERATURES SHOULD OCCUR BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...DRY CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. A
SERIES OF SHORTWAVE TROUGHS WILL MOVE EWD ACROSS THE PACIFIC NW/
GREAT BASIN/NRN ROCKIES INTO THURSDAY. THESE SYSTEMS WILL PRODUCE
BREEZY CONDITIONS ACROSS MUCH OF SE ARIZONA TODAY. BREEZY TO WINDY
CONDITIONS WILL THEN OCCUR THUR IN RESPONSE TO A STRONGER SHORTWAVE
TROUGH MOVING NORTH OF THE AREA. EXPECT MARKEDLY LESS WIND FRI...
THEN MAINLY AFTERNOON BREEZINESS WILL PREVAIL SAT-MON.

THEREAFTER...THERE WERE DISTINCT DIFFERENCES BETWEEN THE 01/00Z
GFS/ECMWF REGARDING A DEVELOPING WRN CONUS UPPER TROUGH NEXT TUE.
THE ECMWF WAS CONSIDERABLY DEEPER WITH THIS SYSTEM VERSUS THE
GFS...AND DEPICTED A 547 DM LOW TO BE CENTERED OVER CENTRAL
CALIFORNIA TUE AFTERNOON. HAVE LEANED TOWARD A COMPROMISE BETWEEN
THESE SOLUTIONS...WITH THE MAIN IMPACT LIKELY BEING NOTICEABLY
COOLER TEMPS BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

FOR INSTANCE...HIGH TEMPS TODAY-SUN WILL CONTINUE TO AVERAGE ABOUT
5-10 DEGS F OR SO ABOVE NORMAL. HIGH TEMPS TUE ARE FORECAST AT THIS
TIME TO COOL TO GENERALLY WITHIN A DEGREE-OR-TWO OF NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION...VALID THRU 02/12Z.
CLEAR SKIES TO SCATTERED CLOUDS ABOVE 20K FT AGL WILL OCCUR INTO
THURSDAY MORNING. SURFACE WIND THRU MID MORNING WILL BE SLY/SWLY AT
5-15 KTS WITH GUSTS TO 20 KTS...THEN SURFACE WIND AFTER 17Z WILL BE
WLY/SWLY AT 10-20 KTS WITH GUSTS OF 20-30 KTS. SURFACE WIND AFTER
02/02Z WILL BE SLY/SWLY AT 5-15 KTS WITH GUSTS TO 20 KTS. AVIATION
DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR TAF AMENDMENTS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...A FIRE WEATHER WATCH IS IN EFFECT FROM 10 AM
THURSDAY MORNING UNTIL 8 PM MST THURSDAY EVENING FOR FIRE WEATHER
ZONE 153. THIS FIRE WEATHER WATCH ALSO INCLUDES THE EASTERN PORTION
OF FIRE WEATHER ZONE 152...OR ESSENTIALLY EAST OF A CLIFTON TO
DOUGLAS LINE. THE COMBINATION OF STRONG AND GUSTY WEST WINDS...LOW
RELATIVE HUMIDITY AND A HIGH FIRE DANGER RATING WILL LIKELY CREATE
CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS.

GUSTY WEST TO SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL PREVAIL TODAY IN ADVANCE OF A
DISTURBANCE THAT WILL MOVE NORTH OF THE AREA THURSDAY. HOWEVER...
WIND SPEEDS WILL NOT BE QUITE AS STRONG TODAY VERSUS THURSDAY.
THUS...WIDESPREAD CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE NOT EXPECTED
TO OCCUR TODAY. EXPECT SOMEWHAT LESS WIND FRIDAY....BUT MAINLY
AFTERNOON BREEZINESS WILL RETURN THIS WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
    FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY
    EVENING FOR AZZ153 AND EASTERN AZZ152 (ESSENTIALLY EAST OF
    A CLIFTON TO DOUGLAS LINE).

&&

$$

VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...YOUTUBE...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/TUCSON

FRANCIS






000
FXUS65 KTWC 011025
AFDTWC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ
325 AM MST WED APR 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...DRY CONDITIONS WITH ABOVE NORMAL DAYTIME TEMPERATURES
WILL CONTINUE INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. EXPECT BREEZY CONDITIONS TODAY
AND EVEN STRONGER WINDS THURSDAY AS A WEATHER SYSTEM MOVES NORTH OF
THE AREA. MARKEDLY LESS WIND WILL OCCUR FRIDAY...THEN MAINLY
AFTERNOON BREEZINESS WILL RETURN THIS WEEKEND. NOTICEABLY COOLER
TEMPERATURES SHOULD OCCUR BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...DRY CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. A
SERIES OF SHORTWAVE TROUGHS WILL MOVE EWD ACROSS THE PACIFIC NW/
GREAT BASIN/NRN ROCKIES INTO THURSDAY. THESE SYSTEMS WILL PRODUCE
BREEZY CONDITIONS ACROSS MUCH OF SE ARIZONA TODAY. BREEZY TO WINDY
CONDITIONS WILL THEN OCCUR THUR IN RESPONSE TO A STRONGER SHORTWAVE
TROUGH MOVING NORTH OF THE AREA. EXPECT MARKEDLY LESS WIND FRI...
THEN MAINLY AFTERNOON BREEZINESS WILL PREVAIL SAT-MON.

THEREAFTER...THERE WERE DISTINCT DIFFERENCES BETWEEN THE 01/00Z
GFS/ECMWF REGARDING A DEVELOPING WRN CONUS UPPER TROUGH NEXT TUE.
THE ECMWF WAS CONSIDERABLY DEEPER WITH THIS SYSTEM VERSUS THE
GFS...AND DEPICTED A 547 DM LOW TO BE CENTERED OVER CENTRAL
CALIFORNIA TUE AFTERNOON. HAVE LEANED TOWARD A COMPROMISE BETWEEN
THESE SOLUTIONS...WITH THE MAIN IMPACT LIKELY BEING NOTICEABLY
COOLER TEMPS BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

FOR INSTANCE...HIGH TEMPS TODAY-SUN WILL CONTINUE TO AVERAGE ABOUT
5-10 DEGS F OR SO ABOVE NORMAL. HIGH TEMPS TUE ARE FORECAST AT THIS
TIME TO COOL TO GENERALLY WITHIN A DEGREE-OR-TWO OF NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION...VALID THRU 02/12Z.
CLEAR SKIES TO SCATTERED CLOUDS ABOVE 20K FT AGL WILL OCCUR INTO
THURSDAY MORNING. SURFACE WIND THRU MID MORNING WILL BE SLY/SWLY AT
5-15 KTS WITH GUSTS TO 20 KTS...THEN SURFACE WIND AFTER 17Z WILL BE
WLY/SWLY AT 10-20 KTS WITH GUSTS OF 20-30 KTS. SURFACE WIND AFTER
02/02Z WILL BE SLY/SWLY AT 5-15 KTS WITH GUSTS TO 20 KTS. AVIATION
DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR TAF AMENDMENTS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...A FIRE WEATHER WATCH IS IN EFFECT FROM 10 AM
THURSDAY MORNING UNTIL 8 PM MST THURSDAY EVENING FOR FIRE WEATHER
ZONE 153. THIS FIRE WEATHER WATCH ALSO INCLUDES THE EASTERN PORTION
OF FIRE WEATHER ZONE 152...OR ESSENTIALLY EAST OF A CLIFTON TO
DOUGLAS LINE. THE COMBINATION OF STRONG AND GUSTY WEST WINDS...LOW
RELATIVE HUMIDITY AND A HIGH FIRE DANGER RATING WILL LIKELY CREATE
CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS.

GUSTY WEST TO SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL PREVAIL TODAY IN ADVANCE OF A
DISTURBANCE THAT WILL MOVE NORTH OF THE AREA THURSDAY. HOWEVER...
WIND SPEEDS WILL NOT BE QUITE AS STRONG TODAY VERSUS THURSDAY.
THUS...WIDESPREAD CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE NOT EXPECTED
TO OCCUR TODAY. EXPECT SOMEWHAT LESS WIND FRIDAY....BUT MAINLY
AFTERNOON BREEZINESS WILL RETURN THIS WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
    FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY
    EVENING FOR AZZ153 AND EASTERN AZZ152 (ESSENTIALLY EAST OF
    A CLIFTON TO DOUGLAS LINE).

&&

$$

VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...YOUTUBE...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/TUCSON

FRANCIS





000
FXUS65 KPSR 011020
AFDPSR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PHOENIX AZ
320 AM MST WED APR 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A DRY WEATHER SYSTEM WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION FROM THE GREAT BASIN
LATE TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...USHERING IN COOLER TEMPERATURES AND
INCREASING WINDS. DRY CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN THROUGH THE WEEKEND
WITH CONTINUED ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WITH DAYTIME HIGHS IN THE
UPPER 80S TO LOW 90S. AN ACTIVE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN WILL LINGER OVER
THE WEST INTO NEXT WEEK...RESULTING IN NEAR OR POSSIBLY EVEN BELOW
NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR OUR AFTERNOONS AND MILD MORNINGS.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
ANOTHER MILD MORNING UNDERWAY OVER THE AZ/SE CA DESERTS WITH MANY
LOCATIONS ABOUT 3 TO 8 DEGREES WARMER THAN THIS TIME TUESDAY AM.
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND SURFACE ANALYSIS ALREADY INDICATE THE
ADVANCEMENT OF DRIER AIR INTO THE REGION FROM THE WEST...WITH
DEWPOINT READINGS ALREADY INTO THE 20S AND 10S ACROSS PORTIONS
OF SE CA AND SOUTHERN NV. THIS INITIAL BATCH OF DRY AIR WILL
DROP PWAT REGIONS ACROSS THE REGION TO NEAR QUARTER INCH READINGS
BY THIS EVENING. WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT AND SLIGHTLY LOWERED HEIGHTS
WILL ALLOW OUR STREAK OF RECORD SETTING TEMPERATURES TO COME TO A
WRAP...WITH DAYTIME HIGHS TODAY IN THE LOW 90S ACROSS THE LOWER
DESERTS AND LOW 80S FOR LOCALES ACROSS SOUTHERN GILA COUNTY AND
JOSHUA TREE NP.

MULTIPLE SHORTWAVE AND LOW FEATURES DOT THE NORTH PACIFIC UPSTREAM
AND WILL GENERATE A MORE PROGRESSIVE FLOW PATTERN OVER THE WESTERN
CONUS FOR THE NEXT WEEK OR SO. THE NEXT SHORTWAVE OF INTEREST THAT
WILL IMPACT THE SOUTHWEST STATES IS RIGHT OVER NORTHERN B.C.
AND THE ALEXANDER ARCHIPELAGO IN SE ALASKA...WITH HEIGHTS STRETCHING
BACK OUT OVER THE PACIFIC NEAR 40N/135W. THIS SYSTEM WILL EXPAND
SOUTHWARD AND MOVE ON-SHORE OVER CALIFORNIA AND INTO THE SOUTHERN
GREAT BASIN LATER TODAY AND INTO THURSDAY...DRAWING FURTHER AIRMASS
DRYING AND MILD CAA DOWN INTO THE SOUTHWEST STATES.

UL JET ORIENTATION AND SPEED AMPLIFICATION ALONG WITH POCKETS OF
DEEPER MIXING REALLY TARGET NE AZ/FOUR CORNERS REGION FOR THE
STRONGEST WINDS AND LIKELY AREAS OF CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS
FOR THIS EVENT. NORTHERLY WINDS ACROSS SE CA AND LOWER CO RIVER
VALLEY 15 TO 25 MPH WITH GUSTS 30-35 MPH WILL RESULT AS THE
SHORTWAVE BRUSHES BY TO OUR NORTH. WINDS BACK ACROSS THE LOWER AZ
DESERTS WILL RANGE IN THE 10 TO 20 MPH RANGE. AIRMASS DRYING WILL
DROP SFC DEWPOINTS INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS AND 10S BY THURSDAY
AFTN...WITH RELATIVE HUMIDITIES IN THE SINGLE DIGITS AS WELL.
MARGINAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE STILL POSSIBLE THURSDAY IN
LOCALIZED POCKETS...HOWEVER FORECASTED WIND SPEEDS ARE STILL UNDER
CRITICAL THRESHOLDS. LATE WEEK TEMPERATURES WILL COOL INTO THE
MID/UPPER 80S...WITH A SLIGHT REBOUND INTO THE LOWER 90S EXPECTED
THROUGH THE EASTER WEEKEND AS FLOW ALOFT BECOMES SOUTHWESTERLY AND
USHERS IN WARMER AIR FROM OFF THE EAST CENTRAL PACIFIC.

FORECAST SOLNS IN THE EXTENDED REMAIN IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT
THROUGH ABOUT THE MIDDAY MONDAY TIME FRAME. LONGWAVE TROUGHING HOLDS
OVER MUCH OF THE WEST WITH EMBEDDED SHORTWAVE PASSING THROUGH THE
REGION TO OUR NORTH. AFTER MONDAY...A MORE ORGANIZED PACIFIC LOW IS
PROGGED TO DEVELOP OVER THE PACIFIC NW AND THEN EXPAND DOWN THE WEST
COAST. OUT OF THE 00Z OPERATIONS GUIDANCE...THE ECMWF SOLN IS THE
COLDEST AND DEEPEST SWEEPING THE SYSTEM THROUGH AZ AS A CUT-OFF LOW.
THE GFS/GEM SOLNS FAVOR A MORE OPEN WAVE WITH A LESSER SOUTHERN
EXTENT. ENSEMBLE SPREAD REMAINS HIGH...PARTICULARLY OVER THE
NORTHEAST PACIFIC AND OVER THE PACIFIC NW WITH THE GENESIS OF THIS
SYSTEM. TAKING A MEDIAN VALUE FORECAST OF ALL AVAILABLE TEMPERATURE
GUIDANCE ALONG WITH A HEAVY BLEND OF CONSENSUS GUIDANCE RESULTS IN
THE POSSIBILITY OF BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES DURING THE MIDDLE OF
NEXT WEEK. NORMALS FOR THIS PERIOD IN PHOENIX AND YUMA ARE 82/83 AND
84/85 DEGREES RESPECTIVELY. CONFIDENCE IS MARGINAL IN THESE FORECAST
VALUES AND EVEN LOWER IN THE TIMING AND MOVEMENT OF THE WEATHER
SYSTEM RESPONSIBLE FOR THE COOL DOWN. DESPITE THE DEPTH
DIFFERENCES...ALL SOLNS ATTM INDICATE THIS SYSTEMS WILL GNLY BE ON
THE DRIER SIDE. SOME MOISTURE MAY WORK INTO EASTERN AZ/MOGOLLON RIM
AND COULD RESULT IN SOME PRECIP ACTIVITY. SLIGHT BLEND OF (ABOUT 5
PERCENT OVER EACH 12 HR PERIOD) WAS WORKED INTO THE EXTENDED POP
GRIDS. RESULTING POPS DO NOT GENERATE ANY SENSIBLE WEATHER...BUT AT
LEAST A TREND WAS INTRODUCED FOR THE MIDDLE PARTS OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...
SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA INCLUDING KPHX...KIWA...AND KSDL...AND
SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA AND SOUTHWEST ARIZONA INCLUDING KIPL AND KBLH...

A WEAK WEATHER DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE ACROSS NORTHERN AZ TODAY...
BRINGING GUSTY AFTERNOON/EVENING SOUTHWEST TO WEST WINDS ACROSS THE
REGION. STRONGEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED LATE AFTERNOON TO EARLY
EVENING...WHEN GUSTS UP TO 24 KTS ARE POSSIBLE. OTHERWISE EXPECT
ONLY OCCASIONAL PERIODS OF HIGH CLOUDINESS.

AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDED TAFS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

...GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS AND VERY LOW HUMIDITY AREA-WIDE THURSDAY
AFTERNOON FOR MARGINAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS...

THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY...

A SERIES OF WEATHER DISTURBANCES WILL MOVE ACROSS THE WESTERN STATES
MAINLY NORTH OF AZ FOR ENHANCED AFTERNOON BREEZES EACH DAY. HOWEVER
ONE STRONGER DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE FARTHER SOUTH ACROSS NORTHERN AZ
THURSDAY GENERATING GUSTY NORTH TO NORTHWEST WINDS 15 TO 25 MPH WITH
GUSTS TO 30 MPH. A SIGNIFICANTLY DRIER AIRMASS FROM THE NORTH WILL
ALSO SWEEP ACROSS THE REGION. MARGINAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED THURSDAY ESPECIALLY ALONG THE LOWER COLORADO RIVER VALLEY AS
WELL AS THE RIDGETOPS OF SOUTHERN GILA COUNTY. OTHERWISE...BREEZY
CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST EACH AFTERNOON WITH MINIMUM RELATIVE
HUMIDITIES IN THE 5 TO 10 PERCENT RANGE. OVERNIGHT RECOVERY SHOULD BE
FAIR...EXCEPT FOR THE BREEZY/WINDY PERIOD THURSDAY NIGHT. AFTERNOON
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN 8 TO 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AZ...NONE.
CA...NONE.
&&

$$

VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/PHOENIX

DISCUSSION...NOLTE
AVIATION....MCLANE
FIRE WEATHER...VASQUEZ/LEINS




000
FXUS65 KPSR 011020
AFDPSR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PHOENIX AZ
320 AM MST WED APR 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A DRY WEATHER SYSTEM WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION FROM THE GREAT BASIN
LATE TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...USHERING IN COOLER TEMPERATURES AND
INCREASING WINDS. DRY CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN THROUGH THE WEEKEND
WITH CONTINUED ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WITH DAYTIME HIGHS IN THE
UPPER 80S TO LOW 90S. AN ACTIVE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN WILL LINGER OVER
THE WEST INTO NEXT WEEK...RESULTING IN NEAR OR POSSIBLY EVEN BELOW
NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR OUR AFTERNOONS AND MILD MORNINGS.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
ANOTHER MILD MORNING UNDERWAY OVER THE AZ/SE CA DESERTS WITH MANY
LOCATIONS ABOUT 3 TO 8 DEGREES WARMER THAN THIS TIME TUESDAY AM.
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND SURFACE ANALYSIS ALREADY INDICATE THE
ADVANCEMENT OF DRIER AIR INTO THE REGION FROM THE WEST...WITH
DEWPOINT READINGS ALREADY INTO THE 20S AND 10S ACROSS PORTIONS
OF SE CA AND SOUTHERN NV. THIS INITIAL BATCH OF DRY AIR WILL
DROP PWAT REGIONS ACROSS THE REGION TO NEAR QUARTER INCH READINGS
BY THIS EVENING. WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT AND SLIGHTLY LOWERED HEIGHTS
WILL ALLOW OUR STREAK OF RECORD SETTING TEMPERATURES TO COME TO A
WRAP...WITH DAYTIME HIGHS TODAY IN THE LOW 90S ACROSS THE LOWER
DESERTS AND LOW 80S FOR LOCALES ACROSS SOUTHERN GILA COUNTY AND
JOSHUA TREE NP.

MULTIPLE SHORTWAVE AND LOW FEATURES DOT THE NORTH PACIFIC UPSTREAM
AND WILL GENERATE A MORE PROGRESSIVE FLOW PATTERN OVER THE WESTERN
CONUS FOR THE NEXT WEEK OR SO. THE NEXT SHORTWAVE OF INTEREST THAT
WILL IMPACT THE SOUTHWEST STATES IS RIGHT OVER NORTHERN B.C.
AND THE ALEXANDER ARCHIPELAGO IN SE ALASKA...WITH HEIGHTS STRETCHING
BACK OUT OVER THE PACIFIC NEAR 40N/135W. THIS SYSTEM WILL EXPAND
SOUTHWARD AND MOVE ON-SHORE OVER CALIFORNIA AND INTO THE SOUTHERN
GREAT BASIN LATER TODAY AND INTO THURSDAY...DRAWING FURTHER AIRMASS
DRYING AND MILD CAA DOWN INTO THE SOUTHWEST STATES.

UL JET ORIENTATION AND SPEED AMPLIFICATION ALONG WITH POCKETS OF
DEEPER MIXING REALLY TARGET NE AZ/FOUR CORNERS REGION FOR THE
STRONGEST WINDS AND LIKELY AREAS OF CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS
FOR THIS EVENT. NORTHERLY WINDS ACROSS SE CA AND LOWER CO RIVER
VALLEY 15 TO 25 MPH WITH GUSTS 30-35 MPH WILL RESULT AS THE
SHORTWAVE BRUSHES BY TO OUR NORTH. WINDS BACK ACROSS THE LOWER AZ
DESERTS WILL RANGE IN THE 10 TO 20 MPH RANGE. AIRMASS DRYING WILL
DROP SFC DEWPOINTS INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS AND 10S BY THURSDAY
AFTN...WITH RELATIVE HUMIDITIES IN THE SINGLE DIGITS AS WELL.
MARGINAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE STILL POSSIBLE THURSDAY IN
LOCALIZED POCKETS...HOWEVER FORECASTED WIND SPEEDS ARE STILL UNDER
CRITICAL THRESHOLDS. LATE WEEK TEMPERATURES WILL COOL INTO THE
MID/UPPER 80S...WITH A SLIGHT REBOUND INTO THE LOWER 90S EXPECTED
THROUGH THE EASTER WEEKEND AS FLOW ALOFT BECOMES SOUTHWESTERLY AND
USHERS IN WARMER AIR FROM OFF THE EAST CENTRAL PACIFIC.

FORECAST SOLNS IN THE EXTENDED REMAIN IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT
THROUGH ABOUT THE MIDDAY MONDAY TIME FRAME. LONGWAVE TROUGHING HOLDS
OVER MUCH OF THE WEST WITH EMBEDDED SHORTWAVE PASSING THROUGH THE
REGION TO OUR NORTH. AFTER MONDAY...A MORE ORGANIZED PACIFIC LOW IS
PROGGED TO DEVELOP OVER THE PACIFIC NW AND THEN EXPAND DOWN THE WEST
COAST. OUT OF THE 00Z OPERATIONS GUIDANCE...THE ECMWF SOLN IS THE
COLDEST AND DEEPEST SWEEPING THE SYSTEM THROUGH AZ AS A CUT-OFF LOW.
THE GFS/GEM SOLNS FAVOR A MORE OPEN WAVE WITH A LESSER SOUTHERN
EXTENT. ENSEMBLE SPREAD REMAINS HIGH...PARTICULARLY OVER THE
NORTHEAST PACIFIC AND OVER THE PACIFIC NW WITH THE GENESIS OF THIS
SYSTEM. TAKING A MEDIAN VALUE FORECAST OF ALL AVAILABLE TEMPERATURE
GUIDANCE ALONG WITH A HEAVY BLEND OF CONSENSUS GUIDANCE RESULTS IN
THE POSSIBILITY OF BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES DURING THE MIDDLE OF
NEXT WEEK. NORMALS FOR THIS PERIOD IN PHOENIX AND YUMA ARE 82/83 AND
84/85 DEGREES RESPECTIVELY. CONFIDENCE IS MARGINAL IN THESE FORECAST
VALUES AND EVEN LOWER IN THE TIMING AND MOVEMENT OF THE WEATHER
SYSTEM RESPONSIBLE FOR THE COOL DOWN. DESPITE THE DEPTH
DIFFERENCES...ALL SOLNS ATTM INDICATE THIS SYSTEMS WILL GNLY BE ON
THE DRIER SIDE. SOME MOISTURE MAY WORK INTO EASTERN AZ/MOGOLLON RIM
AND COULD RESULT IN SOME PRECIP ACTIVITY. SLIGHT BLEND OF (ABOUT 5
PERCENT OVER EACH 12 HR PERIOD) WAS WORKED INTO THE EXTENDED POP
GRIDS. RESULTING POPS DO NOT GENERATE ANY SENSIBLE WEATHER...BUT AT
LEAST A TREND WAS INTRODUCED FOR THE MIDDLE PARTS OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...
SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA INCLUDING KPHX...KIWA...AND KSDL...AND
SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA AND SOUTHWEST ARIZONA INCLUDING KIPL AND KBLH...

A WEAK WEATHER DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE ACROSS NORTHERN AZ TODAY...
BRINGING GUSTY AFTERNOON/EVENING SOUTHWEST TO WEST WINDS ACROSS THE
REGION. STRONGEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED LATE AFTERNOON TO EARLY
EVENING...WHEN GUSTS UP TO 24 KTS ARE POSSIBLE. OTHERWISE EXPECT
ONLY OCCASIONAL PERIODS OF HIGH CLOUDINESS.

AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDED TAFS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

...GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS AND VERY LOW HUMIDITY AREA-WIDE THURSDAY
AFTERNOON FOR MARGINAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS...

THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY...

A SERIES OF WEATHER DISTURBANCES WILL MOVE ACROSS THE WESTERN STATES
MAINLY NORTH OF AZ FOR ENHANCED AFTERNOON BREEZES EACH DAY. HOWEVER
ONE STRONGER DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE FARTHER SOUTH ACROSS NORTHERN AZ
THURSDAY GENERATING GUSTY NORTH TO NORTHWEST WINDS 15 TO 25 MPH WITH
GUSTS TO 30 MPH. A SIGNIFICANTLY DRIER AIRMASS FROM THE NORTH WILL
ALSO SWEEP ACROSS THE REGION. MARGINAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED THURSDAY ESPECIALLY ALONG THE LOWER COLORADO RIVER VALLEY AS
WELL AS THE RIDGETOPS OF SOUTHERN GILA COUNTY. OTHERWISE...BREEZY
CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST EACH AFTERNOON WITH MINIMUM RELATIVE
HUMIDITIES IN THE 5 TO 10 PERCENT RANGE. OVERNIGHT RECOVERY SHOULD BE
FAIR...EXCEPT FOR THE BREEZY/WINDY PERIOD THURSDAY NIGHT. AFTERNOON
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN 8 TO 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AZ...NONE.
CA...NONE.
&&

$$

VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/PHOENIX

DISCUSSION...NOLTE
AVIATION....MCLANE
FIRE WEATHER...VASQUEZ/LEINS



000
FXUS65 KPSR 011020
AFDPSR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PHOENIX AZ
320 AM MST WED APR 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A DRY WEATHER SYSTEM WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION FROM THE GREAT BASIN
LATE TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...USHERING IN COOLER TEMPERATURES AND
INCREASING WINDS. DRY CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN THROUGH THE WEEKEND
WITH CONTINUED ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WITH DAYTIME HIGHS IN THE
UPPER 80S TO LOW 90S. AN ACTIVE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN WILL LINGER OVER
THE WEST INTO NEXT WEEK...RESULTING IN NEAR OR POSSIBLY EVEN BELOW
NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR OUR AFTERNOONS AND MILD MORNINGS.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
ANOTHER MILD MORNING UNDERWAY OVER THE AZ/SE CA DESERTS WITH MANY
LOCATIONS ABOUT 3 TO 8 DEGREES WARMER THAN THIS TIME TUESDAY AM.
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND SURFACE ANALYSIS ALREADY INDICATE THE
ADVANCEMENT OF DRIER AIR INTO THE REGION FROM THE WEST...WITH
DEWPOINT READINGS ALREADY INTO THE 20S AND 10S ACROSS PORTIONS
OF SE CA AND SOUTHERN NV. THIS INITIAL BATCH OF DRY AIR WILL
DROP PWAT REGIONS ACROSS THE REGION TO NEAR QUARTER INCH READINGS
BY THIS EVENING. WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT AND SLIGHTLY LOWERED HEIGHTS
WILL ALLOW OUR STREAK OF RECORD SETTING TEMPERATURES TO COME TO A
WRAP...WITH DAYTIME HIGHS TODAY IN THE LOW 90S ACROSS THE LOWER
DESERTS AND LOW 80S FOR LOCALES ACROSS SOUTHERN GILA COUNTY AND
JOSHUA TREE NP.

MULTIPLE SHORTWAVE AND LOW FEATURES DOT THE NORTH PACIFIC UPSTREAM
AND WILL GENERATE A MORE PROGRESSIVE FLOW PATTERN OVER THE WESTERN
CONUS FOR THE NEXT WEEK OR SO. THE NEXT SHORTWAVE OF INTEREST THAT
WILL IMPACT THE SOUTHWEST STATES IS RIGHT OVER NORTHERN B.C.
AND THE ALEXANDER ARCHIPELAGO IN SE ALASKA...WITH HEIGHTS STRETCHING
BACK OUT OVER THE PACIFIC NEAR 40N/135W. THIS SYSTEM WILL EXPAND
SOUTHWARD AND MOVE ON-SHORE OVER CALIFORNIA AND INTO THE SOUTHERN
GREAT BASIN LATER TODAY AND INTO THURSDAY...DRAWING FURTHER AIRMASS
DRYING AND MILD CAA DOWN INTO THE SOUTHWEST STATES.

UL JET ORIENTATION AND SPEED AMPLIFICATION ALONG WITH POCKETS OF
DEEPER MIXING REALLY TARGET NE AZ/FOUR CORNERS REGION FOR THE
STRONGEST WINDS AND LIKELY AREAS OF CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS
FOR THIS EVENT. NORTHERLY WINDS ACROSS SE CA AND LOWER CO RIVER
VALLEY 15 TO 25 MPH WITH GUSTS 30-35 MPH WILL RESULT AS THE
SHORTWAVE BRUSHES BY TO OUR NORTH. WINDS BACK ACROSS THE LOWER AZ
DESERTS WILL RANGE IN THE 10 TO 20 MPH RANGE. AIRMASS DRYING WILL
DROP SFC DEWPOINTS INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS AND 10S BY THURSDAY
AFTN...WITH RELATIVE HUMIDITIES IN THE SINGLE DIGITS AS WELL.
MARGINAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE STILL POSSIBLE THURSDAY IN
LOCALIZED POCKETS...HOWEVER FORECASTED WIND SPEEDS ARE STILL UNDER
CRITICAL THRESHOLDS. LATE WEEK TEMPERATURES WILL COOL INTO THE
MID/UPPER 80S...WITH A SLIGHT REBOUND INTO THE LOWER 90S EXPECTED
THROUGH THE EASTER WEEKEND AS FLOW ALOFT BECOMES SOUTHWESTERLY AND
USHERS IN WARMER AIR FROM OFF THE EAST CENTRAL PACIFIC.

FORECAST SOLNS IN THE EXTENDED REMAIN IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT
THROUGH ABOUT THE MIDDAY MONDAY TIME FRAME. LONGWAVE TROUGHING HOLDS
OVER MUCH OF THE WEST WITH EMBEDDED SHORTWAVE PASSING THROUGH THE
REGION TO OUR NORTH. AFTER MONDAY...A MORE ORGANIZED PACIFIC LOW IS
PROGGED TO DEVELOP OVER THE PACIFIC NW AND THEN EXPAND DOWN THE WEST
COAST. OUT OF THE 00Z OPERATIONS GUIDANCE...THE ECMWF SOLN IS THE
COLDEST AND DEEPEST SWEEPING THE SYSTEM THROUGH AZ AS A CUT-OFF LOW.
THE GFS/GEM SOLNS FAVOR A MORE OPEN WAVE WITH A LESSER SOUTHERN
EXTENT. ENSEMBLE SPREAD REMAINS HIGH...PARTICULARLY OVER THE
NORTHEAST PACIFIC AND OVER THE PACIFIC NW WITH THE GENESIS OF THIS
SYSTEM. TAKING A MEDIAN VALUE FORECAST OF ALL AVAILABLE TEMPERATURE
GUIDANCE ALONG WITH A HEAVY BLEND OF CONSENSUS GUIDANCE RESULTS IN
THE POSSIBILITY OF BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES DURING THE MIDDLE OF
NEXT WEEK. NORMALS FOR THIS PERIOD IN PHOENIX AND YUMA ARE 82/83 AND
84/85 DEGREES RESPECTIVELY. CONFIDENCE IS MARGINAL IN THESE FORECAST
VALUES AND EVEN LOWER IN THE TIMING AND MOVEMENT OF THE WEATHER
SYSTEM RESPONSIBLE FOR THE COOL DOWN. DESPITE THE DEPTH
DIFFERENCES...ALL SOLNS ATTM INDICATE THIS SYSTEMS WILL GNLY BE ON
THE DRIER SIDE. SOME MOISTURE MAY WORK INTO EASTERN AZ/MOGOLLON RIM
AND COULD RESULT IN SOME PRECIP ACTIVITY. SLIGHT BLEND OF (ABOUT 5
PERCENT OVER EACH 12 HR PERIOD) WAS WORKED INTO THE EXTENDED POP
GRIDS. RESULTING POPS DO NOT GENERATE ANY SENSIBLE WEATHER...BUT AT
LEAST A TREND WAS INTRODUCED FOR THE MIDDLE PARTS OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...
SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA INCLUDING KPHX...KIWA...AND KSDL...AND
SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA AND SOUTHWEST ARIZONA INCLUDING KIPL AND KBLH...

A WEAK WEATHER DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE ACROSS NORTHERN AZ TODAY...
BRINGING GUSTY AFTERNOON/EVENING SOUTHWEST TO WEST WINDS ACROSS THE
REGION. STRONGEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED LATE AFTERNOON TO EARLY
EVENING...WHEN GUSTS UP TO 24 KTS ARE POSSIBLE. OTHERWISE EXPECT
ONLY OCCASIONAL PERIODS OF HIGH CLOUDINESS.

AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDED TAFS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

...GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS AND VERY LOW HUMIDITY AREA-WIDE THURSDAY
AFTERNOON FOR MARGINAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS...

THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY...

A SERIES OF WEATHER DISTURBANCES WILL MOVE ACROSS THE WESTERN STATES
MAINLY NORTH OF AZ FOR ENHANCED AFTERNOON BREEZES EACH DAY. HOWEVER
ONE STRONGER DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE FARTHER SOUTH ACROSS NORTHERN AZ
THURSDAY GENERATING GUSTY NORTH TO NORTHWEST WINDS 15 TO 25 MPH WITH
GUSTS TO 30 MPH. A SIGNIFICANTLY DRIER AIRMASS FROM THE NORTH WILL
ALSO SWEEP ACROSS THE REGION. MARGINAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED THURSDAY ESPECIALLY ALONG THE LOWER COLORADO RIVER VALLEY AS
WELL AS THE RIDGETOPS OF SOUTHERN GILA COUNTY. OTHERWISE...BREEZY
CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST EACH AFTERNOON WITH MINIMUM RELATIVE
HUMIDITIES IN THE 5 TO 10 PERCENT RANGE. OVERNIGHT RECOVERY SHOULD BE
FAIR...EXCEPT FOR THE BREEZY/WINDY PERIOD THURSDAY NIGHT. AFTERNOON
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN 8 TO 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AZ...NONE.
CA...NONE.
&&

$$

VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/PHOENIX

DISCUSSION...NOLTE
AVIATION....MCLANE
FIRE WEATHER...VASQUEZ/LEINS



000
FXUS65 KPSR 011020
AFDPSR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PHOENIX AZ
320 AM MST WED APR 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A DRY WEATHER SYSTEM WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION FROM THE GREAT BASIN
LATE TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...USHERING IN COOLER TEMPERATURES AND
INCREASING WINDS. DRY CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN THROUGH THE WEEKEND
WITH CONTINUED ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WITH DAYTIME HIGHS IN THE
UPPER 80S TO LOW 90S. AN ACTIVE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN WILL LINGER OVER
THE WEST INTO NEXT WEEK...RESULTING IN NEAR OR POSSIBLY EVEN BELOW
NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR OUR AFTERNOONS AND MILD MORNINGS.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
ANOTHER MILD MORNING UNDERWAY OVER THE AZ/SE CA DESERTS WITH MANY
LOCATIONS ABOUT 3 TO 8 DEGREES WARMER THAN THIS TIME TUESDAY AM.
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND SURFACE ANALYSIS ALREADY INDICATE THE
ADVANCEMENT OF DRIER AIR INTO THE REGION FROM THE WEST...WITH
DEWPOINT READINGS ALREADY INTO THE 20S AND 10S ACROSS PORTIONS
OF SE CA AND SOUTHERN NV. THIS INITIAL BATCH OF DRY AIR WILL
DROP PWAT REGIONS ACROSS THE REGION TO NEAR QUARTER INCH READINGS
BY THIS EVENING. WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT AND SLIGHTLY LOWERED HEIGHTS
WILL ALLOW OUR STREAK OF RECORD SETTING TEMPERATURES TO COME TO A
WRAP...WITH DAYTIME HIGHS TODAY IN THE LOW 90S ACROSS THE LOWER
DESERTS AND LOW 80S FOR LOCALES ACROSS SOUTHERN GILA COUNTY AND
JOSHUA TREE NP.

MULTIPLE SHORTWAVE AND LOW FEATURES DOT THE NORTH PACIFIC UPSTREAM
AND WILL GENERATE A MORE PROGRESSIVE FLOW PATTERN OVER THE WESTERN
CONUS FOR THE NEXT WEEK OR SO. THE NEXT SHORTWAVE OF INTEREST THAT
WILL IMPACT THE SOUTHWEST STATES IS RIGHT OVER NORTHERN B.C.
AND THE ALEXANDER ARCHIPELAGO IN SE ALASKA...WITH HEIGHTS STRETCHING
BACK OUT OVER THE PACIFIC NEAR 40N/135W. THIS SYSTEM WILL EXPAND
SOUTHWARD AND MOVE ON-SHORE OVER CALIFORNIA AND INTO THE SOUTHERN
GREAT BASIN LATER TODAY AND INTO THURSDAY...DRAWING FURTHER AIRMASS
DRYING AND MILD CAA DOWN INTO THE SOUTHWEST STATES.

UL JET ORIENTATION AND SPEED AMPLIFICATION ALONG WITH POCKETS OF
DEEPER MIXING REALLY TARGET NE AZ/FOUR CORNERS REGION FOR THE
STRONGEST WINDS AND LIKELY AREAS OF CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS
FOR THIS EVENT. NORTHERLY WINDS ACROSS SE CA AND LOWER CO RIVER
VALLEY 15 TO 25 MPH WITH GUSTS 30-35 MPH WILL RESULT AS THE
SHORTWAVE BRUSHES BY TO OUR NORTH. WINDS BACK ACROSS THE LOWER AZ
DESERTS WILL RANGE IN THE 10 TO 20 MPH RANGE. AIRMASS DRYING WILL
DROP SFC DEWPOINTS INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS AND 10S BY THURSDAY
AFTN...WITH RELATIVE HUMIDITIES IN THE SINGLE DIGITS AS WELL.
MARGINAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE STILL POSSIBLE THURSDAY IN
LOCALIZED POCKETS...HOWEVER FORECASTED WIND SPEEDS ARE STILL UNDER
CRITICAL THRESHOLDS. LATE WEEK TEMPERATURES WILL COOL INTO THE
MID/UPPER 80S...WITH A SLIGHT REBOUND INTO THE LOWER 90S EXPECTED
THROUGH THE EASTER WEEKEND AS FLOW ALOFT BECOMES SOUTHWESTERLY AND
USHERS IN WARMER AIR FROM OFF THE EAST CENTRAL PACIFIC.

FORECAST SOLNS IN THE EXTENDED REMAIN IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT
THROUGH ABOUT THE MIDDAY MONDAY TIME FRAME. LONGWAVE TROUGHING HOLDS
OVER MUCH OF THE WEST WITH EMBEDDED SHORTWAVE PASSING THROUGH THE
REGION TO OUR NORTH. AFTER MONDAY...A MORE ORGANIZED PACIFIC LOW IS
PROGGED TO DEVELOP OVER THE PACIFIC NW AND THEN EXPAND DOWN THE WEST
COAST. OUT OF THE 00Z OPERATIONS GUIDANCE...THE ECMWF SOLN IS THE
COLDEST AND DEEPEST SWEEPING THE SYSTEM THROUGH AZ AS A CUT-OFF LOW.
THE GFS/GEM SOLNS FAVOR A MORE OPEN WAVE WITH A LESSER SOUTHERN
EXTENT. ENSEMBLE SPREAD REMAINS HIGH...PARTICULARLY OVER THE
NORTHEAST PACIFIC AND OVER THE PACIFIC NW WITH THE GENESIS OF THIS
SYSTEM. TAKING A MEDIAN VALUE FORECAST OF ALL AVAILABLE TEMPERATURE
GUIDANCE ALONG WITH A HEAVY BLEND OF CONSENSUS GUIDANCE RESULTS IN
THE POSSIBILITY OF BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES DURING THE MIDDLE OF
NEXT WEEK. NORMALS FOR THIS PERIOD IN PHOENIX AND YUMA ARE 82/83 AND
84/85 DEGREES RESPECTIVELY. CONFIDENCE IS MARGINAL IN THESE FORECAST
VALUES AND EVEN LOWER IN THE TIMING AND MOVEMENT OF THE WEATHER
SYSTEM RESPONSIBLE FOR THE COOL DOWN. DESPITE THE DEPTH
DIFFERENCES...ALL SOLNS ATTM INDICATE THIS SYSTEMS WILL GNLY BE ON
THE DRIER SIDE. SOME MOISTURE MAY WORK INTO EASTERN AZ/MOGOLLON RIM
AND COULD RESULT IN SOME PRECIP ACTIVITY. SLIGHT BLEND OF (ABOUT 5
PERCENT OVER EACH 12 HR PERIOD) WAS WORKED INTO THE EXTENDED POP
GRIDS. RESULTING POPS DO NOT GENERATE ANY SENSIBLE WEATHER...BUT AT
LEAST A TREND WAS INTRODUCED FOR THE MIDDLE PARTS OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...
SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA INCLUDING KPHX...KIWA...AND KSDL...AND
SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA AND SOUTHWEST ARIZONA INCLUDING KIPL AND KBLH...

A WEAK WEATHER DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE ACROSS NORTHERN AZ TODAY...
BRINGING GUSTY AFTERNOON/EVENING SOUTHWEST TO WEST WINDS ACROSS THE
REGION. STRONGEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED LATE AFTERNOON TO EARLY
EVENING...WHEN GUSTS UP TO 24 KTS ARE POSSIBLE. OTHERWISE EXPECT
ONLY OCCASIONAL PERIODS OF HIGH CLOUDINESS.

AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDED TAFS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

...GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS AND VERY LOW HUMIDITY AREA-WIDE THURSDAY
AFTERNOON FOR MARGINAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS...

THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY...

A SERIES OF WEATHER DISTURBANCES WILL MOVE ACROSS THE WESTERN STATES
MAINLY NORTH OF AZ FOR ENHANCED AFTERNOON BREEZES EACH DAY. HOWEVER
ONE STRONGER DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE FARTHER SOUTH ACROSS NORTHERN AZ
THURSDAY GENERATING GUSTY NORTH TO NORTHWEST WINDS 15 TO 25 MPH WITH
GUSTS TO 30 MPH. A SIGNIFICANTLY DRIER AIRMASS FROM THE NORTH WILL
ALSO SWEEP ACROSS THE REGION. MARGINAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED THURSDAY ESPECIALLY ALONG THE LOWER COLORADO RIVER VALLEY AS
WELL AS THE RIDGETOPS OF SOUTHERN GILA COUNTY. OTHERWISE...BREEZY
CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST EACH AFTERNOON WITH MINIMUM RELATIVE
HUMIDITIES IN THE 5 TO 10 PERCENT RANGE. OVERNIGHT RECOVERY SHOULD BE
FAIR...EXCEPT FOR THE BREEZY/WINDY PERIOD THURSDAY NIGHT. AFTERNOON
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN 8 TO 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AZ...NONE.
CA...NONE.
&&

$$

VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/PHOENIX

DISCUSSION...NOLTE
AVIATION....MCLANE
FIRE WEATHER...VASQUEZ/LEINS



000
FXUS65 KPSR 011020
AFDPSR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PHOENIX AZ
320 AM MST WED APR 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A DRY WEATHER SYSTEM WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION FROM THE GREAT BASIN
LATE TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...USHERING IN COOLER TEMPERATURES AND
INCREASING WINDS. DRY CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN THROUGH THE WEEKEND
WITH CONTINUED ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WITH DAYTIME HIGHS IN THE
UPPER 80S TO LOW 90S. AN ACTIVE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN WILL LINGER OVER
THE WEST INTO NEXT WEEK...RESULTING IN NEAR OR POSSIBLY EVEN BELOW
NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR OUR AFTERNOONS AND MILD MORNINGS.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
ANOTHER MILD MORNING UNDERWAY OVER THE AZ/SE CA DESERTS WITH MANY
LOCATIONS ABOUT 3 TO 8 DEGREES WARMER THAN THIS TIME TUESDAY AM.
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND SURFACE ANALYSIS ALREADY INDICATE THE
ADVANCEMENT OF DRIER AIR INTO THE REGION FROM THE WEST...WITH
DEWPOINT READINGS ALREADY INTO THE 20S AND 10S ACROSS PORTIONS
OF SE CA AND SOUTHERN NV. THIS INITIAL BATCH OF DRY AIR WILL
DROP PWAT REGIONS ACROSS THE REGION TO NEAR QUARTER INCH READINGS
BY THIS EVENING. WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT AND SLIGHTLY LOWERED HEIGHTS
WILL ALLOW OUR STREAK OF RECORD SETTING TEMPERATURES TO COME TO A
WRAP...WITH DAYTIME HIGHS TODAY IN THE LOW 90S ACROSS THE LOWER
DESERTS AND LOW 80S FOR LOCALES ACROSS SOUTHERN GILA COUNTY AND
JOSHUA TREE NP.

MULTIPLE SHORTWAVE AND LOW FEATURES DOT THE NORTH PACIFIC UPSTREAM
AND WILL GENERATE A MORE PROGRESSIVE FLOW PATTERN OVER THE WESTERN
CONUS FOR THE NEXT WEEK OR SO. THE NEXT SHORTWAVE OF INTEREST THAT
WILL IMPACT THE SOUTHWEST STATES IS RIGHT OVER NORTHERN B.C.
AND THE ALEXANDER ARCHIPELAGO IN SE ALASKA...WITH HEIGHTS STRETCHING
BACK OUT OVER THE PACIFIC NEAR 40N/135W. THIS SYSTEM WILL EXPAND
SOUTHWARD AND MOVE ON-SHORE OVER CALIFORNIA AND INTO THE SOUTHERN
GREAT BASIN LATER TODAY AND INTO THURSDAY...DRAWING FURTHER AIRMASS
DRYING AND MILD CAA DOWN INTO THE SOUTHWEST STATES.

UL JET ORIENTATION AND SPEED AMPLIFICATION ALONG WITH POCKETS OF
DEEPER MIXING REALLY TARGET NE AZ/FOUR CORNERS REGION FOR THE
STRONGEST WINDS AND LIKELY AREAS OF CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS
FOR THIS EVENT. NORTHERLY WINDS ACROSS SE CA AND LOWER CO RIVER
VALLEY 15 TO 25 MPH WITH GUSTS 30-35 MPH WILL RESULT AS THE
SHORTWAVE BRUSHES BY TO OUR NORTH. WINDS BACK ACROSS THE LOWER AZ
DESERTS WILL RANGE IN THE 10 TO 20 MPH RANGE. AIRMASS DRYING WILL
DROP SFC DEWPOINTS INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS AND 10S BY THURSDAY
AFTN...WITH RELATIVE HUMIDITIES IN THE SINGLE DIGITS AS WELL.
MARGINAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE STILL POSSIBLE THURSDAY IN
LOCALIZED POCKETS...HOWEVER FORECASTED WIND SPEEDS ARE STILL UNDER
CRITICAL THRESHOLDS. LATE WEEK TEMPERATURES WILL COOL INTO THE
MID/UPPER 80S...WITH A SLIGHT REBOUND INTO THE LOWER 90S EXPECTED
THROUGH THE EASTER WEEKEND AS FLOW ALOFT BECOMES SOUTHWESTERLY AND
USHERS IN WARMER AIR FROM OFF THE EAST CENTRAL PACIFIC.

FORECAST SOLNS IN THE EXTENDED REMAIN IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT
THROUGH ABOUT THE MIDDAY MONDAY TIME FRAME. LONGWAVE TROUGHING HOLDS
OVER MUCH OF THE WEST WITH EMBEDDED SHORTWAVE PASSING THROUGH THE
REGION TO OUR NORTH. AFTER MONDAY...A MORE ORGANIZED PACIFIC LOW IS
PROGGED TO DEVELOP OVER THE PACIFIC NW AND THEN EXPAND DOWN THE WEST
COAST. OUT OF THE 00Z OPERATIONS GUIDANCE...THE ECMWF SOLN IS THE
COLDEST AND DEEPEST SWEEPING THE SYSTEM THROUGH AZ AS A CUT-OFF LOW.
THE GFS/GEM SOLNS FAVOR A MORE OPEN WAVE WITH A LESSER SOUTHERN
EXTENT. ENSEMBLE SPREAD REMAINS HIGH...PARTICULARLY OVER THE
NORTHEAST PACIFIC AND OVER THE PACIFIC NW WITH THE GENESIS OF THIS
SYSTEM. TAKING A MEDIAN VALUE FORECAST OF ALL AVAILABLE TEMPERATURE
GUIDANCE ALONG WITH A HEAVY BLEND OF CONSENSUS GUIDANCE RESULTS IN
THE POSSIBILITY OF BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES DURING THE MIDDLE OF
NEXT WEEK. NORMALS FOR THIS PERIOD IN PHOENIX AND YUMA ARE 82/83 AND
84/85 DEGREES RESPECTIVELY. CONFIDENCE IS MARGINAL IN THESE FORECAST
VALUES AND EVEN LOWER IN THE TIMING AND MOVEMENT OF THE WEATHER
SYSTEM RESPONSIBLE FOR THE COOL DOWN. DESPITE THE DEPTH
DIFFERENCES...ALL SOLNS ATTM INDICATE THIS SYSTEMS WILL GNLY BE ON
THE DRIER SIDE. SOME MOISTURE MAY WORK INTO EASTERN AZ/MOGOLLON RIM
AND COULD RESULT IN SOME PRECIP ACTIVITY. SLIGHT BLEND OF (ABOUT 5
PERCENT OVER EACH 12 HR PERIOD) WAS WORKED INTO THE EXTENDED POP
GRIDS. RESULTING POPS DO NOT GENERATE ANY SENSIBLE WEATHER...BUT AT
LEAST A TREND WAS INTRODUCED FOR THE MIDDLE PARTS OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...
SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA INCLUDING KPHX...KIWA...AND KSDL...AND
SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA AND SOUTHWEST ARIZONA INCLUDING KIPL AND KBLH...

A WEAK WEATHER DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE ACROSS NORTHERN AZ TODAY...
BRINGING GUSTY AFTERNOON/EVENING SOUTHWEST TO WEST WINDS ACROSS THE
REGION. STRONGEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED LATE AFTERNOON TO EARLY
EVENING...WHEN GUSTS UP TO 24 KTS ARE POSSIBLE. OTHERWISE EXPECT
ONLY OCCASIONAL PERIODS OF HIGH CLOUDINESS.

AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDED TAFS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

...GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS AND VERY LOW HUMIDITY AREA-WIDE THURSDAY
AFTERNOON FOR MARGINAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS...

THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY...

A SERIES OF WEATHER DISTURBANCES WILL MOVE ACROSS THE WESTERN STATES
MAINLY NORTH OF AZ FOR ENHANCED AFTERNOON BREEZES EACH DAY. HOWEVER
ONE STRONGER DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE FARTHER SOUTH ACROSS NORTHERN AZ
THURSDAY GENERATING GUSTY NORTH TO NORTHWEST WINDS 15 TO 25 MPH WITH
GUSTS TO 30 MPH. A SIGNIFICANTLY DRIER AIRMASS FROM THE NORTH WILL
ALSO SWEEP ACROSS THE REGION. MARGINAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED THURSDAY ESPECIALLY ALONG THE LOWER COLORADO RIVER VALLEY AS
WELL AS THE RIDGETOPS OF SOUTHERN GILA COUNTY. OTHERWISE...BREEZY
CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST EACH AFTERNOON WITH MINIMUM RELATIVE
HUMIDITIES IN THE 5 TO 10 PERCENT RANGE. OVERNIGHT RECOVERY SHOULD BE
FAIR...EXCEPT FOR THE BREEZY/WINDY PERIOD THURSDAY NIGHT. AFTERNOON
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN 8 TO 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AZ...NONE.
CA...NONE.
&&

$$

VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/PHOENIX

DISCUSSION...NOLTE
AVIATION....MCLANE
FIRE WEATHER...VASQUEZ/LEINS



000
FXUS65 KPSR 011020
AFDPSR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PHOENIX AZ
320 AM MST WED APR 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A DRY WEATHER SYSTEM WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION FROM THE GREAT BASIN
LATE TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...USHERING IN COOLER TEMPERATURES AND
INCREASING WINDS. DRY CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN THROUGH THE WEEKEND
WITH CONTINUED ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WITH DAYTIME HIGHS IN THE
UPPER 80S TO LOW 90S. AN ACTIVE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN WILL LINGER OVER
THE WEST INTO NEXT WEEK...RESULTING IN NEAR OR POSSIBLY EVEN BELOW
NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR OUR AFTERNOONS AND MILD MORNINGS.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
ANOTHER MILD MORNING UNDERWAY OVER THE AZ/SE CA DESERTS WITH MANY
LOCATIONS ABOUT 3 TO 8 DEGREES WARMER THAN THIS TIME TUESDAY AM.
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND SURFACE ANALYSIS ALREADY INDICATE THE
ADVANCEMENT OF DRIER AIR INTO THE REGION FROM THE WEST...WITH
DEWPOINT READINGS ALREADY INTO THE 20S AND 10S ACROSS PORTIONS
OF SE CA AND SOUTHERN NV. THIS INITIAL BATCH OF DRY AIR WILL
DROP PWAT REGIONS ACROSS THE REGION TO NEAR QUARTER INCH READINGS
BY THIS EVENING. WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT AND SLIGHTLY LOWERED HEIGHTS
WILL ALLOW OUR STREAK OF RECORD SETTING TEMPERATURES TO COME TO A
WRAP...WITH DAYTIME HIGHS TODAY IN THE LOW 90S ACROSS THE LOWER
DESERTS AND LOW 80S FOR LOCALES ACROSS SOUTHERN GILA COUNTY AND
JOSHUA TREE NP.

MULTIPLE SHORTWAVE AND LOW FEATURES DOT THE NORTH PACIFIC UPSTREAM
AND WILL GENERATE A MORE PROGRESSIVE FLOW PATTERN OVER THE WESTERN
CONUS FOR THE NEXT WEEK OR SO. THE NEXT SHORTWAVE OF INTEREST THAT
WILL IMPACT THE SOUTHWEST STATES IS RIGHT OVER NORTHERN B.C.
AND THE ALEXANDER ARCHIPELAGO IN SE ALASKA...WITH HEIGHTS STRETCHING
BACK OUT OVER THE PACIFIC NEAR 40N/135W. THIS SYSTEM WILL EXPAND
SOUTHWARD AND MOVE ON-SHORE OVER CALIFORNIA AND INTO THE SOUTHERN
GREAT BASIN LATER TODAY AND INTO THURSDAY...DRAWING FURTHER AIRMASS
DRYING AND MILD CAA DOWN INTO THE SOUTHWEST STATES.

UL JET ORIENTATION AND SPEED AMPLIFICATION ALONG WITH POCKETS OF
DEEPER MIXING REALLY TARGET NE AZ/FOUR CORNERS REGION FOR THE
STRONGEST WINDS AND LIKELY AREAS OF CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS
FOR THIS EVENT. NORTHERLY WINDS ACROSS SE CA AND LOWER CO RIVER
VALLEY 15 TO 25 MPH WITH GUSTS 30-35 MPH WILL RESULT AS THE
SHORTWAVE BRUSHES BY TO OUR NORTH. WINDS BACK ACROSS THE LOWER AZ
DESERTS WILL RANGE IN THE 10 TO 20 MPH RANGE. AIRMASS DRYING WILL
DROP SFC DEWPOINTS INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS AND 10S BY THURSDAY
AFTN...WITH RELATIVE HUMIDITIES IN THE SINGLE DIGITS AS WELL.
MARGINAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE STILL POSSIBLE THURSDAY IN
LOCALIZED POCKETS...HOWEVER FORECASTED WIND SPEEDS ARE STILL UNDER
CRITICAL THRESHOLDS. LATE WEEK TEMPERATURES WILL COOL INTO THE
MID/UPPER 80S...WITH A SLIGHT REBOUND INTO THE LOWER 90S EXPECTED
THROUGH THE EASTER WEEKEND AS FLOW ALOFT BECOMES SOUTHWESTERLY AND
USHERS IN WARMER AIR FROM OFF THE EAST CENTRAL PACIFIC.

FORECAST SOLNS IN THE EXTENDED REMAIN IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT
THROUGH ABOUT THE MIDDAY MONDAY TIME FRAME. LONGWAVE TROUGHING HOLDS
OVER MUCH OF THE WEST WITH EMBEDDED SHORTWAVE PASSING THROUGH THE
REGION TO OUR NORTH. AFTER MONDAY...A MORE ORGANIZED PACIFIC LOW IS
PROGGED TO DEVELOP OVER THE PACIFIC NW AND THEN EXPAND DOWN THE WEST
COAST. OUT OF THE 00Z OPERATIONS GUIDANCE...THE ECMWF SOLN IS THE
COLDEST AND DEEPEST SWEEPING THE SYSTEM THROUGH AZ AS A CUT-OFF LOW.
THE GFS/GEM SOLNS FAVOR A MORE OPEN WAVE WITH A LESSER SOUTHERN
EXTENT. ENSEMBLE SPREAD REMAINS HIGH...PARTICULARLY OVER THE
NORTHEAST PACIFIC AND OVER THE PACIFIC NW WITH THE GENESIS OF THIS
SYSTEM. TAKING A MEDIAN VALUE FORECAST OF ALL AVAILABLE TEMPERATURE
GUIDANCE ALONG WITH A HEAVY BLEND OF CONSENSUS GUIDANCE RESULTS IN
THE POSSIBILITY OF BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES DURING THE MIDDLE OF
NEXT WEEK. NORMALS FOR THIS PERIOD IN PHOENIX AND YUMA ARE 82/83 AND
84/85 DEGREES RESPECTIVELY. CONFIDENCE IS MARGINAL IN THESE FORECAST
VALUES AND EVEN LOWER IN THE TIMING AND MOVEMENT OF THE WEATHER
SYSTEM RESPONSIBLE FOR THE COOL DOWN. DESPITE THE DEPTH
DIFFERENCES...ALL SOLNS ATTM INDICATE THIS SYSTEMS WILL GNLY BE ON
THE DRIER SIDE. SOME MOISTURE MAY WORK INTO EASTERN AZ/MOGOLLON RIM
AND COULD RESULT IN SOME PRECIP ACTIVITY. SLIGHT BLEND OF (ABOUT 5
PERCENT OVER EACH 12 HR PERIOD) WAS WORKED INTO THE EXTENDED POP
GRIDS. RESULTING POPS DO NOT GENERATE ANY SENSIBLE WEATHER...BUT AT
LEAST A TREND WAS INTRODUCED FOR THE MIDDLE PARTS OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...
SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA INCLUDING KPHX...KIWA...AND KSDL...AND
SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA AND SOUTHWEST ARIZONA INCLUDING KIPL AND KBLH...

A WEAK WEATHER DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE ACROSS NORTHERN AZ TODAY...
BRINGING GUSTY AFTERNOON/EVENING SOUTHWEST TO WEST WINDS ACROSS THE
REGION. STRONGEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED LATE AFTERNOON TO EARLY
EVENING...WHEN GUSTS UP TO 24 KTS ARE POSSIBLE. OTHERWISE EXPECT
ONLY OCCASIONAL PERIODS OF HIGH CLOUDINESS.

AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDED TAFS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

...GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS AND VERY LOW HUMIDITY AREA-WIDE THURSDAY
AFTERNOON FOR MARGINAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS...

THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY...

A SERIES OF WEATHER DISTURBANCES WILL MOVE ACROSS THE WESTERN STATES
MAINLY NORTH OF AZ FOR ENHANCED AFTERNOON BREEZES EACH DAY. HOWEVER
ONE STRONGER DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE FARTHER SOUTH ACROSS NORTHERN AZ
THURSDAY GENERATING GUSTY NORTH TO NORTHWEST WINDS 15 TO 25 MPH WITH
GUSTS TO 30 MPH. A SIGNIFICANTLY DRIER AIRMASS FROM THE NORTH WILL
ALSO SWEEP ACROSS THE REGION. MARGINAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED THURSDAY ESPECIALLY ALONG THE LOWER COLORADO RIVER VALLEY AS
WELL AS THE RIDGETOPS OF SOUTHERN GILA COUNTY. OTHERWISE...BREEZY
CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST EACH AFTERNOON WITH MINIMUM RELATIVE
HUMIDITIES IN THE 5 TO 10 PERCENT RANGE. OVERNIGHT RECOVERY SHOULD BE
FAIR...EXCEPT FOR THE BREEZY/WINDY PERIOD THURSDAY NIGHT. AFTERNOON
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN 8 TO 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AZ...NONE.
CA...NONE.
&&

$$

VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/PHOENIX

DISCUSSION...NOLTE
AVIATION....MCLANE
FIRE WEATHER...VASQUEZ/LEINS



000
FXUS65 KFGZ 010407
AFDFGZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ
910 PM MST TUE MAR 31 2015

.SYNOPSIS...EXPECT A SLIGHT COOLING TREND FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE
WEEK...WITH INCREASINGLY WINDY CONDITIONS. WINDS WILL DIMINISH ON
FRIDAY...BUT WILL RETURN BY NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.DISCUSSION...EXPECT INCREASING WINDS THROUGH THURSDAY AS SEVERAL
TROUGHS MOVE THROUGH THE NORTHERN GREAT BASIN. WIND SPEEDS WILL
APPROACH ADVISORY CRITERIA WEDNESDAY...WITH MANY AREAS EXCEEDING
WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA BY THURSDAY. THE AIRMASS WILL ALSO DRY OUT
SIGNIFICANTLY AS OUR AREA WILL REMAIN WELL TO THE SOUTH OF THESE
STORMS. THE COMBINATION OF DRY CONDITIONS AND HIGH WINDS WILL PEAK
AND THURSDAY AND SOME AREAS WILL EXPERIENCE CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER
CONDITIONS. WINDS WILL DECREASE BY FRIDAY AND INTO THE WEEKEND WITH
A SLIGHT WARMING TREND. ALL THESE TRENDS ARE COVERED AND NO UPDATES
ARE NEEDED TONIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 06Z PACKAGE...EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS FOR THE NEXT
24 HOURS. SFC WINDS WILL INCREASE AGAIN BY 17Z-19Z WEDNESDAY WITH
MOST AREAS 15-25G30KTS. AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR TAF
AMENDMENTS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...EXPECT INCREASING WINDS ON WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND
THURSDAY AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM STRENGTHENS OVER THE GREAT BASIN.
ON THURSDAY...STRONG WINDS AND LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY WILL LIKELY
BRING CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS TO PORTIONS OF NORTHEASTERN
ARIZONA. A FIRE WEATHER WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FROM THE MOGOLLON RIM
NORTHWARD ON THURSDAY AFTERNOON.

FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...WIND SPEEDS WILL DECREASE FRIDAY BUT WILL
BECOME BREEZY AGAIN OVER THE WEEKEND. THIS MAY BRING ANOTHER ROUND
OF CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS TO THE AREA SATURDAY AND SUNDAY.

&&

.FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY
EVENING FOR AZZ109>114-116-117-139-140.

&&

$$

PUBLIC.........PETERSON
AVIATION.......PETERSON
FIRE WEATHER...BOHLIN/PETERSON

FOR NORTHERN ARIZONA WEATHER INFORMATION VISIT
WEATHER.GOV/FLAGSTAFF




000
FXUS65 KFGZ 010407
AFDFGZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ
910 PM MST TUE MAR 31 2015

.SYNOPSIS...EXPECT A SLIGHT COOLING TREND FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE
WEEK...WITH INCREASINGLY WINDY CONDITIONS. WINDS WILL DIMINISH ON
FRIDAY...BUT WILL RETURN BY NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.DISCUSSION...EXPECT INCREASING WINDS THROUGH THURSDAY AS SEVERAL
TROUGHS MOVE THROUGH THE NORTHERN GREAT BASIN. WIND SPEEDS WILL
APPROACH ADVISORY CRITERIA WEDNESDAY...WITH MANY AREAS EXCEEDING
WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA BY THURSDAY. THE AIRMASS WILL ALSO DRY OUT
SIGNIFICANTLY AS OUR AREA WILL REMAIN WELL TO THE SOUTH OF THESE
STORMS. THE COMBINATION OF DRY CONDITIONS AND HIGH WINDS WILL PEAK
AND THURSDAY AND SOME AREAS WILL EXPERIENCE CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER
CONDITIONS. WINDS WILL DECREASE BY FRIDAY AND INTO THE WEEKEND WITH
A SLIGHT WARMING TREND. ALL THESE TRENDS ARE COVERED AND NO UPDATES
ARE NEEDED TONIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 06Z PACKAGE...EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS FOR THE NEXT
24 HOURS. SFC WINDS WILL INCREASE AGAIN BY 17Z-19Z WEDNESDAY WITH
MOST AREAS 15-25G30KTS. AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR TAF
AMENDMENTS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...EXPECT INCREASING WINDS ON WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND
THURSDAY AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM STRENGTHENS OVER THE GREAT BASIN.
ON THURSDAY...STRONG WINDS AND LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY WILL LIKELY
BRING CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS TO PORTIONS OF NORTHEASTERN
ARIZONA. A FIRE WEATHER WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FROM THE MOGOLLON RIM
NORTHWARD ON THURSDAY AFTERNOON.

FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...WIND SPEEDS WILL DECREASE FRIDAY BUT WILL
BECOME BREEZY AGAIN OVER THE WEEKEND. THIS MAY BRING ANOTHER ROUND
OF CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS TO THE AREA SATURDAY AND SUNDAY.

&&

.FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY
EVENING FOR AZZ109>114-116-117-139-140.

&&

$$

PUBLIC.........PETERSON
AVIATION.......PETERSON
FIRE WEATHER...BOHLIN/PETERSON

FOR NORTHERN ARIZONA WEATHER INFORMATION VISIT
WEATHER.GOV/FLAGSTAFF




000
FXUS65 KFGZ 010407
AFDFGZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ
910 PM MST TUE MAR 31 2015

.SYNOPSIS...EXPECT A SLIGHT COOLING TREND FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE
WEEK...WITH INCREASINGLY WINDY CONDITIONS. WINDS WILL DIMINISH ON
FRIDAY...BUT WILL RETURN BY NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.DISCUSSION...EXPECT INCREASING WINDS THROUGH THURSDAY AS SEVERAL
TROUGHS MOVE THROUGH THE NORTHERN GREAT BASIN. WIND SPEEDS WILL
APPROACH ADVISORY CRITERIA WEDNESDAY...WITH MANY AREAS EXCEEDING
WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA BY THURSDAY. THE AIRMASS WILL ALSO DRY OUT
SIGNIFICANTLY AS OUR AREA WILL REMAIN WELL TO THE SOUTH OF THESE
STORMS. THE COMBINATION OF DRY CONDITIONS AND HIGH WINDS WILL PEAK
AND THURSDAY AND SOME AREAS WILL EXPERIENCE CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER
CONDITIONS. WINDS WILL DECREASE BY FRIDAY AND INTO THE WEEKEND WITH
A SLIGHT WARMING TREND. ALL THESE TRENDS ARE COVERED AND NO UPDATES
ARE NEEDED TONIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 06Z PACKAGE...EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS FOR THE NEXT
24 HOURS. SFC WINDS WILL INCREASE AGAIN BY 17Z-19Z WEDNESDAY WITH
MOST AREAS 15-25G30KTS. AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR TAF
AMENDMENTS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...EXPECT INCREASING WINDS ON WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND
THURSDAY AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM STRENGTHENS OVER THE GREAT BASIN.
ON THURSDAY...STRONG WINDS AND LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY WILL LIKELY
BRING CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS TO PORTIONS OF NORTHEASTERN
ARIZONA. A FIRE WEATHER WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FROM THE MOGOLLON RIM
NORTHWARD ON THURSDAY AFTERNOON.

FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...WIND SPEEDS WILL DECREASE FRIDAY BUT WILL
BECOME BREEZY AGAIN OVER THE WEEKEND. THIS MAY BRING ANOTHER ROUND
OF CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS TO THE AREA SATURDAY AND SUNDAY.

&&

.FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY
EVENING FOR AZZ109>114-116-117-139-140.

&&

$$

PUBLIC.........PETERSON
AVIATION.......PETERSON
FIRE WEATHER...BOHLIN/PETERSON

FOR NORTHERN ARIZONA WEATHER INFORMATION VISIT
WEATHER.GOV/FLAGSTAFF





000
FXUS65 KFGZ 010407
AFDFGZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ
910 PM MST TUE MAR 31 2015

.SYNOPSIS...EXPECT A SLIGHT COOLING TREND FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE
WEEK...WITH INCREASINGLY WINDY CONDITIONS. WINDS WILL DIMINISH ON
FRIDAY...BUT WILL RETURN BY NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.DISCUSSION...EXPECT INCREASING WINDS THROUGH THURSDAY AS SEVERAL
TROUGHS MOVE THROUGH THE NORTHERN GREAT BASIN. WIND SPEEDS WILL
APPROACH ADVISORY CRITERIA WEDNESDAY...WITH MANY AREAS EXCEEDING
WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA BY THURSDAY. THE AIRMASS WILL ALSO DRY OUT
SIGNIFICANTLY AS OUR AREA WILL REMAIN WELL TO THE SOUTH OF THESE
STORMS. THE COMBINATION OF DRY CONDITIONS AND HIGH WINDS WILL PEAK
AND THURSDAY AND SOME AREAS WILL EXPERIENCE CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER
CONDITIONS. WINDS WILL DECREASE BY FRIDAY AND INTO THE WEEKEND WITH
A SLIGHT WARMING TREND. ALL THESE TRENDS ARE COVERED AND NO UPDATES
ARE NEEDED TONIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 06Z PACKAGE...EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS FOR THE NEXT
24 HOURS. SFC WINDS WILL INCREASE AGAIN BY 17Z-19Z WEDNESDAY WITH
MOST AREAS 15-25G30KTS. AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR TAF
AMENDMENTS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...EXPECT INCREASING WINDS ON WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND
THURSDAY AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM STRENGTHENS OVER THE GREAT BASIN.
ON THURSDAY...STRONG WINDS AND LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY WILL LIKELY
BRING CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS TO PORTIONS OF NORTHEASTERN
ARIZONA. A FIRE WEATHER WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FROM THE MOGOLLON RIM
NORTHWARD ON THURSDAY AFTERNOON.

FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...WIND SPEEDS WILL DECREASE FRIDAY BUT WILL
BECOME BREEZY AGAIN OVER THE WEEKEND. THIS MAY BRING ANOTHER ROUND
OF CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS TO THE AREA SATURDAY AND SUNDAY.

&&

.FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY
EVENING FOR AZZ109>114-116-117-139-140.

&&

$$

PUBLIC.........PETERSON
AVIATION.......PETERSON
FIRE WEATHER...BOHLIN/PETERSON

FOR NORTHERN ARIZONA WEATHER INFORMATION VISIT
WEATHER.GOV/FLAGSTAFF





000
FXUS65 KTWC 010349
AFDTWC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ
845 PM MST TUE MAR 31 2015

.SYNOPSIS...A WEATHER SYSTEM PASSING NORTH OF THE AREA WILL BRING
GUSTY WINDS THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK...ESPECIALLY LATE WEDNESDAY
INTO THURSDAY. OTHERWISE EXPECT DRY CONDITIONS WITH TEMPERATURES
CONTINUING TO BE WARMER THAN USUAL.

&&

.DISCUSSION...SCATTERED CONVECTION SOUTH OF TUCSON TODAY...MAINLY
ACROSS SANTA CRUZ AND SOUTHERN COCHISE COUNTIES. NOT A LOT OF RAIN
WITH THOSE BUT SEVERAL REPORTS OF STRONG OUTFLOW WINDS BETWEEN 30
AND 45 MPH. A FEW VERY LIGHT SHOWERS HANGING ON THIS EVENING.
MOISTURE ACTUALLY CONTINUES TO CREEP UP THE SIERRA MADRES SOUTH OF
THE BORDER, WITH 1 INCH VALUES PUSHING INTO CENTRAL SONORA. AN
INCREASING WESTERLY FLOW OVER THE NEXT 36 HOURS WILL PUSH MUCH DRIER
AIR BACK INTO THE REGION. GUSTY WINDS LATE WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY
ARE THE MAIN WEATHER CONCERN AS OUTLINED IN THE FIRE WEATHER SECTION
AND PREVIOUS DISCUSSION BELOW.

&&

.AVIATION...VALID THRU 02/06Z.
ISOLATED -SHRA THIS EVENING. CLEARING SKIES...WITH JUST SOME
HIGH-LEVEL CIRRUS LATER TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. LOCALLY GUSTY
WEST/SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL DEVELOP WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. AVIATION
DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR TAF AMENDMENTS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...GUSTY WEST/SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL OCCUR MAINLY DURING
THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING HOURS INTO THIS WEEKEND. THE
STRONGEST WINDS SHOULD ARE EXPECTED LATER WEDNESDAY AND ESPECIALLY
THURSDAY. ANTICIPATING HIGH COVERAGE OF SUSTAINED WINDS IN EXCESS OF
20 KTS WITH GUSTS TO 35 KTS...DAYTIME MINIMUM RH VALUES APPROACHING
10 PERCENT ON THURSDAY AFTERNOON...AND THE PRESENCE OF HIGH FIRE
DANGER IN THE WHITE MOUNTAINS. THEREFORE...WE HAVE ISSUED A FIRE
WEATHER WATCH VALID BETWEEN 10AM-8PM MST THURSDAY FOR ALL OF FIRE
WEATHER ZONE 153. FIELD CREWS ARE ENCOURAGED TO MONITOR SUBSEQUENT
FORECASTS FOR THE POTENTIAL ISSUANCE OF A RED FLAG WARNING.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...A WEAK UPPER LOW TRACKING THROUGH MEXICO WILL
EXIT THE REGION TONIGHT. ENOUGH MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY HAD
RESULTED IN A FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON...MAINLY
IN THE WHITE MOUNTAINS AND NEAR THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER. WILL KEEP
THE MENTION OF THIS ACTIVITY THROUGH EARLY THIS EVENING WITH MOST OF
IT DISSIPATING AFTER SUNDOWN. THE MAIN WEATHER STORY WILL BE THE
INCREASE IN WIND TOMORROW AND MORE SO THURSDAY. LATEST MODELS TRACK
THE TAIL END OF A SYSTEM THROUGH SOUTHERN ARIZONA ON THURSDAY.
THUS...EXPECTING WINDS TO PICKUP IN ADVANCE OF THE SYSTEM TOMORROW
AND INCREASING MORE ON THURSDAY AS IT PASSES THROUGH THE REGION. THE
INCREASE IN WIND AND DRY CONDITIONS WILL RESULT IN SOME FIRE WEATHER
CONCERNS...ESPECIALLY FOR THE WHITE MOUNTAINS ON THURSDAY. PLEASE
REFER TO THE FIRE WEATHER SECTION IN THIS PRODUCT FOR MORE DETAILS.
CONTINUED DRY WITH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES INTO THE WEEKEND.

&&

.TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
   FIRE WEATHER WATCH FOR ZONE 153 THURSDAY.

&&

$$

VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...YOUTUBE...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/TUCSON

MEYER





000
FXUS65 KTWC 010349
AFDTWC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ
845 PM MST TUE MAR 31 2015

.SYNOPSIS...A WEATHER SYSTEM PASSING NORTH OF THE AREA WILL BRING
GUSTY WINDS THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK...ESPECIALLY LATE WEDNESDAY
INTO THURSDAY. OTHERWISE EXPECT DRY CONDITIONS WITH TEMPERATURES
CONTINUING TO BE WARMER THAN USUAL.

&&

.DISCUSSION...SCATTERED CONVECTION SOUTH OF TUCSON TODAY...MAINLY
ACROSS SANTA CRUZ AND SOUTHERN COCHISE COUNTIES. NOT A LOT OF RAIN
WITH THOSE BUT SEVERAL REPORTS OF STRONG OUTFLOW WINDS BETWEEN 30
AND 45 MPH. A FEW VERY LIGHT SHOWERS HANGING ON THIS EVENING.
MOISTURE ACTUALLY CONTINUES TO CREEP UP THE SIERRA MADRES SOUTH OF
THE BORDER, WITH 1 INCH VALUES PUSHING INTO CENTRAL SONORA. AN
INCREASING WESTERLY FLOW OVER THE NEXT 36 HOURS WILL PUSH MUCH DRIER
AIR BACK INTO THE REGION. GUSTY WINDS LATE WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY
ARE THE MAIN WEATHER CONCERN AS OUTLINED IN THE FIRE WEATHER SECTION
AND PREVIOUS DISCUSSION BELOW.

&&

.AVIATION...VALID THRU 02/06Z.
ISOLATED -SHRA THIS EVENING. CLEARING SKIES...WITH JUST SOME
HIGH-LEVEL CIRRUS LATER TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. LOCALLY GUSTY
WEST/SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL DEVELOP WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. AVIATION
DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR TAF AMENDMENTS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...GUSTY WEST/SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL OCCUR MAINLY DURING
THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING HOURS INTO THIS WEEKEND. THE
STRONGEST WINDS SHOULD ARE EXPECTED LATER WEDNESDAY AND ESPECIALLY
THURSDAY. ANTICIPATING HIGH COVERAGE OF SUSTAINED WINDS IN EXCESS OF
20 KTS WITH GUSTS TO 35 KTS...DAYTIME MINIMUM RH VALUES APPROACHING
10 PERCENT ON THURSDAY AFTERNOON...AND THE PRESENCE OF HIGH FIRE
DANGER IN THE WHITE MOUNTAINS. THEREFORE...WE HAVE ISSUED A FIRE
WEATHER WATCH VALID BETWEEN 10AM-8PM MST THURSDAY FOR ALL OF FIRE
WEATHER ZONE 153. FIELD CREWS ARE ENCOURAGED TO MONITOR SUBSEQUENT
FORECASTS FOR THE POTENTIAL ISSUANCE OF A RED FLAG WARNING.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...A WEAK UPPER LOW TRACKING THROUGH MEXICO WILL
EXIT THE REGION TONIGHT. ENOUGH MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY HAD
RESULTED IN A FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON...MAINLY
IN THE WHITE MOUNTAINS AND NEAR THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER. WILL KEEP
THE MENTION OF THIS ACTIVITY THROUGH EARLY THIS EVENING WITH MOST OF
IT DISSIPATING AFTER SUNDOWN. THE MAIN WEATHER STORY WILL BE THE
INCREASE IN WIND TOMORROW AND MORE SO THURSDAY. LATEST MODELS TRACK
THE TAIL END OF A SYSTEM THROUGH SOUTHERN ARIZONA ON THURSDAY.
THUS...EXPECTING WINDS TO PICKUP IN ADVANCE OF THE SYSTEM TOMORROW
AND INCREASING MORE ON THURSDAY AS IT PASSES THROUGH THE REGION. THE
INCREASE IN WIND AND DRY CONDITIONS WILL RESULT IN SOME FIRE WEATHER
CONCERNS...ESPECIALLY FOR THE WHITE MOUNTAINS ON THURSDAY. PLEASE
REFER TO THE FIRE WEATHER SECTION IN THIS PRODUCT FOR MORE DETAILS.
CONTINUED DRY WITH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES INTO THE WEEKEND.

&&

.TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
   FIRE WEATHER WATCH FOR ZONE 153 THURSDAY.

&&

$$

VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...YOUTUBE...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/TUCSON

MEYER





000
FXUS65 KTWC 010349
AFDTWC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ
845 PM MST TUE MAR 31 2015

.SYNOPSIS...A WEATHER SYSTEM PASSING NORTH OF THE AREA WILL BRING
GUSTY WINDS THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK...ESPECIALLY LATE WEDNESDAY
INTO THURSDAY. OTHERWISE EXPECT DRY CONDITIONS WITH TEMPERATURES
CONTINUING TO BE WARMER THAN USUAL.

&&

.DISCUSSION...SCATTERED CONVECTION SOUTH OF TUCSON TODAY...MAINLY
ACROSS SANTA CRUZ AND SOUTHERN COCHISE COUNTIES. NOT A LOT OF RAIN
WITH THOSE BUT SEVERAL REPORTS OF STRONG OUTFLOW WINDS BETWEEN 30
AND 45 MPH. A FEW VERY LIGHT SHOWERS HANGING ON THIS EVENING.
MOISTURE ACTUALLY CONTINUES TO CREEP UP THE SIERRA MADRES SOUTH OF
THE BORDER, WITH 1 INCH VALUES PUSHING INTO CENTRAL SONORA. AN
INCREASING WESTERLY FLOW OVER THE NEXT 36 HOURS WILL PUSH MUCH DRIER
AIR BACK INTO THE REGION. GUSTY WINDS LATE WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY
ARE THE MAIN WEATHER CONCERN AS OUTLINED IN THE FIRE WEATHER SECTION
AND PREVIOUS DISCUSSION BELOW.

&&

.AVIATION...VALID THRU 02/06Z.
ISOLATED -SHRA THIS EVENING. CLEARING SKIES...WITH JUST SOME
HIGH-LEVEL CIRRUS LATER TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. LOCALLY GUSTY
WEST/SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL DEVELOP WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. AVIATION
DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR TAF AMENDMENTS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...GUSTY WEST/SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL OCCUR MAINLY DURING
THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING HOURS INTO THIS WEEKEND. THE
STRONGEST WINDS SHOULD ARE EXPECTED LATER WEDNESDAY AND ESPECIALLY
THURSDAY. ANTICIPATING HIGH COVERAGE OF SUSTAINED WINDS IN EXCESS OF
20 KTS WITH GUSTS TO 35 KTS...DAYTIME MINIMUM RH VALUES APPROACHING
10 PERCENT ON THURSDAY AFTERNOON...AND THE PRESENCE OF HIGH FIRE
DANGER IN THE WHITE MOUNTAINS. THEREFORE...WE HAVE ISSUED A FIRE
WEATHER WATCH VALID BETWEEN 10AM-8PM MST THURSDAY FOR ALL OF FIRE
WEATHER ZONE 153. FIELD CREWS ARE ENCOURAGED TO MONITOR SUBSEQUENT
FORECASTS FOR THE POTENTIAL ISSUANCE OF A RED FLAG WARNING.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...A WEAK UPPER LOW TRACKING THROUGH MEXICO WILL
EXIT THE REGION TONIGHT. ENOUGH MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY HAD
RESULTED IN A FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON...MAINLY
IN THE WHITE MOUNTAINS AND NEAR THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER. WILL KEEP
THE MENTION OF THIS ACTIVITY THROUGH EARLY THIS EVENING WITH MOST OF
IT DISSIPATING AFTER SUNDOWN. THE MAIN WEATHER STORY WILL BE THE
INCREASE IN WIND TOMORROW AND MORE SO THURSDAY. LATEST MODELS TRACK
THE TAIL END OF A SYSTEM THROUGH SOUTHERN ARIZONA ON THURSDAY.
THUS...EXPECTING WINDS TO PICKUP IN ADVANCE OF THE SYSTEM TOMORROW
AND INCREASING MORE ON THURSDAY AS IT PASSES THROUGH THE REGION. THE
INCREASE IN WIND AND DRY CONDITIONS WILL RESULT IN SOME FIRE WEATHER
CONCERNS...ESPECIALLY FOR THE WHITE MOUNTAINS ON THURSDAY. PLEASE
REFER TO THE FIRE WEATHER SECTION IN THIS PRODUCT FOR MORE DETAILS.
CONTINUED DRY WITH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES INTO THE WEEKEND.

&&

.TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
   FIRE WEATHER WATCH FOR ZONE 153 THURSDAY.

&&

$$

VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...YOUTUBE...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/TUCSON

MEYER





000
FXUS65 KTWC 010349
AFDTWC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ
845 PM MST TUE MAR 31 2015

.SYNOPSIS...A WEATHER SYSTEM PASSING NORTH OF THE AREA WILL BRING
GUSTY WINDS THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK...ESPECIALLY LATE WEDNESDAY
INTO THURSDAY. OTHERWISE EXPECT DRY CONDITIONS WITH TEMPERATURES
CONTINUING TO BE WARMER THAN USUAL.

&&

.DISCUSSION...SCATTERED CONVECTION SOUTH OF TUCSON TODAY...MAINLY
ACROSS SANTA CRUZ AND SOUTHERN COCHISE COUNTIES. NOT A LOT OF RAIN
WITH THOSE BUT SEVERAL REPORTS OF STRONG OUTFLOW WINDS BETWEEN 30
AND 45 MPH. A FEW VERY LIGHT SHOWERS HANGING ON THIS EVENING.
MOISTURE ACTUALLY CONTINUES TO CREEP UP THE SIERRA MADRES SOUTH OF
THE BORDER, WITH 1 INCH VALUES PUSHING INTO CENTRAL SONORA. AN
INCREASING WESTERLY FLOW OVER THE NEXT 36 HOURS WILL PUSH MUCH DRIER
AIR BACK INTO THE REGION. GUSTY WINDS LATE WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY
ARE THE MAIN WEATHER CONCERN AS OUTLINED IN THE FIRE WEATHER SECTION
AND PREVIOUS DISCUSSION BELOW.

&&

.AVIATION...VALID THRU 02/06Z.
ISOLATED -SHRA THIS EVENING. CLEARING SKIES...WITH JUST SOME
HIGH-LEVEL CIRRUS LATER TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. LOCALLY GUSTY
WEST/SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL DEVELOP WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. AVIATION
DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR TAF AMENDMENTS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...GUSTY WEST/SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL OCCUR MAINLY DURING
THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING HOURS INTO THIS WEEKEND. THE
STRONGEST WINDS SHOULD ARE EXPECTED LATER WEDNESDAY AND ESPECIALLY
THURSDAY. ANTICIPATING HIGH COVERAGE OF SUSTAINED WINDS IN EXCESS OF
20 KTS WITH GUSTS TO 35 KTS...DAYTIME MINIMUM RH VALUES APPROACHING
10 PERCENT ON THURSDAY AFTERNOON...AND THE PRESENCE OF HIGH FIRE
DANGER IN THE WHITE MOUNTAINS. THEREFORE...WE HAVE ISSUED A FIRE
WEATHER WATCH VALID BETWEEN 10AM-8PM MST THURSDAY FOR ALL OF FIRE
WEATHER ZONE 153. FIELD CREWS ARE ENCOURAGED TO MONITOR SUBSEQUENT
FORECASTS FOR THE POTENTIAL ISSUANCE OF A RED FLAG WARNING.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...A WEAK UPPER LOW TRACKING THROUGH MEXICO WILL
EXIT THE REGION TONIGHT. ENOUGH MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY HAD
RESULTED IN A FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON...MAINLY
IN THE WHITE MOUNTAINS AND NEAR THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER. WILL KEEP
THE MENTION OF THIS ACTIVITY THROUGH EARLY THIS EVENING WITH MOST OF
IT DISSIPATING AFTER SUNDOWN. THE MAIN WEATHER STORY WILL BE THE
INCREASE IN WIND TOMORROW AND MORE SO THURSDAY. LATEST MODELS TRACK
THE TAIL END OF A SYSTEM THROUGH SOUTHERN ARIZONA ON THURSDAY.
THUS...EXPECTING WINDS TO PICKUP IN ADVANCE OF THE SYSTEM TOMORROW
AND INCREASING MORE ON THURSDAY AS IT PASSES THROUGH THE REGION. THE
INCREASE IN WIND AND DRY CONDITIONS WILL RESULT IN SOME FIRE WEATHER
CONCERNS...ESPECIALLY FOR THE WHITE MOUNTAINS ON THURSDAY. PLEASE
REFER TO THE FIRE WEATHER SECTION IN THIS PRODUCT FOR MORE DETAILS.
CONTINUED DRY WITH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES INTO THE WEEKEND.

&&

.TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
   FIRE WEATHER WATCH FOR ZONE 153 THURSDAY.

&&

$$

VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...YOUTUBE...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/TUCSON

MEYER





000
FXUS65 KPSR 010342
AFDPSR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PHOENIX AZ
845 PM MST TUE MAR 31 2015

.SYNOPSIS... THE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE THAT HAS BEEN ANCHORED OVER THE
DESERT SOUTHWEST WILL BEGIN TO BREAK DOWN...AND BEGIN A SLOW DECLINE
IN THE WARM TEMPERATURES THE AREA HAS SEEN ALONG WITH AN INCREASE IN
DRY WESTERLY WINDS...BUT NO CHANCE FOR RAIN.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

SOME AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH A LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM IN MEXICO WERE PRESENT IN EXTREME EAST AND SOUTHEAST
ARIZONA DURING THE AFTERNOON BUT HAVE SINCE DIED DOWN.  SKIES ACROSS
THE REGION ARE MOSTLY CLEAR. PHOENIX SKY HARBOR AIRPORT ONCE AGAIN
SET A NEW RECORD TODAY WITH 95 DEGS ABOVE THE OLD RECORD OF 94 DEGS.
TODAY SHOULD BE THE LAST IN THE STREAK OF 95 PLUS TEMPS FOR THE
PHOENIX AREA AS THE RIDGE BEGINS TO BREAK DOWN. A PACIFIC TROUGH
DROPPING INTO THE DESERT SOUTHWEST OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS WILL BREAK
THE HEAT SOMEWHAT WITH TEMPS DROPPING TO NEAR 90 BY THE WEEKEND IN
PHOENIX. BY EARLY NEXT WEEK ANOTHER...STRONGER...SYSTEM WILL DEVELOP
OVER THE PACIFIC REGION AND SHOULD HELP DROP TEMPS DOWN
FURTHER...INTO THE MID 80S BY MIDWEEK.

FORECAST WAS IN GREAT SHAPE AND NO CHANGES WERE NEEDED OTHER THAN
ROUTINE UPDATE.

&&

.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION... SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE BEGINNING TO DEVELOP
ACROSS EASTERN ARIZONA THIS AFTERNOON IN AN AREA OF ANOMALOUSLY HIGH
PRECIPITABLE WATER
/95TH PERCENTILE FOR THE END OF MARCH/...AND IN AN AREA OF WEAK
ISENTROPIC ASCENT ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAK TROUGH OVER CENTRAL SONORA. STORMS
ARE PRIMARILY LOCATED ALONG THE HIGHEST PEAKS ALTHOUGH A FEW ISOLATED
SHOWERS APPEAR TO BE DRIFTING TOWARD EXTREME EASTERN GILA COUNTY.
MEANWHILE ACROSS THE LOWER DESERTS OF SOUTH- CENTRAL ARIZONA AND
SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA...SKIES ARE MOSTLY CLEAR AND TEMPS ARE WELL INTO
THE LOWER 90S AS OF 20Z.

ISOLATED SHOWERS WILL DISSIPATE QUICKLY THIS EVENING WITH THE LOSS OF
DAYTIME HEATING AND AS SUBSIDENCE BEHIND THE DEPARTING TROUGH TAKES
HOLD OVER EASTERN ARIZONA. IN THE WAKE OF THIS UPPER TROUGH...DRIER
AIR WILL BEGIN TO MOVE INTO THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY...WITH A
REINFORCING SHOT OF DRIER AIR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY COURTESY OF ANOTHER
SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING THROUGH THE GREAT BASIN. THE COMBINATION OF
DRY AIR AND BREEZY WINDS WILL RESULT IN ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER
CONDITIONS ON THURSDAY...ALTHOUGH WIDESPREAD CRITICAL THRESHOLDS
SHOULD NOT BE REALIZED. WINDS WILL BE STRONGEST DOWN THE LOWER
COLORADO RIVER VALLEY ON THURSDAY ALTHOUGH LATEST HI-RES WRF MODELS
AND OTHER HI-RES DATASETS SUGGEST WIND SPEEDS WILL REMAIN BELOW WIND
ADVISORY CRITERIA. THE TROUGH WILL ALSO SERVE TO COOL DOWN
TEMPERATURES EVER SO SLIGHTLY...BRINGING THEM MORE INTO LINE WITH
CLIMATOLOGICAL NORMALS FOR EARLY APRIL. LATE WEEK TEMPERATURES WILL
FALL INTO THE MID/UPPER 80S BY THURSDAY/FRIDAY...WITH A REBOUND INTO
THE LOWER 90S EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

AFTER THE LATE WEEK SHORTWAVE CLEARS THE REGION...BROAD TROUGH
HEIGHTS/SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW REMAIN OVER MUCH OF THE WESTERN CONUS
THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. OPERATIONAL GFS/ECMWF SOLNS ADVERTISE
A LARGE SHORTWAVE MOVING OFF THE PACIFIC LATE SUNDAY/EARLY
MONDAY...HOWEVER THEIR ENSEMBLE (GEFS/NAEFS/ECENS) COUNTERPARTS DO
LITTLE TO INSPIRE CONFIDENCE IN THE EVOLUTION OF THAT SYSTEM.
BROADBRUSH FORECAST WILL HOLD THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK OF CONTINUED DRY CONDITIONS AND SLIGHTLY ABOVE-CLIMO
TEMPERATURES.

&&

.CLIMATE...

RECORD HIGHS THIS WEEK...

CITY        MARCH 31
--------    --------
PHOENIX     94 IN 2012/2004/1989
YUMA        100 IN 2011

&&

.AVIATION...
SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA INCLUDING KPHX...KIWA...AND KSDL...AND
SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA AND SOUTHWEST ARIZONA INCLUDING KIPL AND KBLH...

A WEAK WEATHER DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE ACROSS NORTHERN AZ TODAY...
BRINGING GUSTY AFTERNOON/EVENING SOUTHWEST TO WEST WINDS ACROSS THE
REGION. STRONGEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED LATE AFTERNOON TO EARLY
EVENING...WHEN GUSTS UP TO 24 KTS ARE POSSIBLE. OTHERWISE EXPECT
ONLY OCCASIONAL PERIODS OF HIGH CLOUDINESS.

AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDED TAFS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

...GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS AND VERY LOW HUMIDITY AREA-WIDE THURSDAY
AFTERNOON FOR MARGINAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS...

THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY...

A SERIES OF WEATHER DISTURBANCES WILL MOVE ACROSS THE WESTERN STATES
MAINLY NORTH OF AZ FOR ENHANCED AFTERNOON BREEZES EACH DAY. HOWEVER
ONE STRONGER DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE FARTHER SOUTH ACROSS NORTHERN AZ
THURSDAY GENERATING GUSTY NORTH TO NORTHWEST WINDS 15 TO 25 MPH WITH
GUSTS TO 30 MPH. A SIGNIFICANTLY DRIER AIRMASS FROM THE NORTH WILL
ALSO SWEEP ACROSS THE REGION. MARGINAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED THURSDAY ESPECIALLY ALONG THE LOWER COLORADO RIVER VALLEY AS
WELL AS THE RIDGETOPS OF SOUTHERN GILA COUNTY. OTHERWISE...BREEZY
CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST EACH AFTERNOON WITH MINIMUM RELATIVE
HUMIDITIES IN THE 5 TO 10 PERCENT RANGE. OVERNIGHT RECOVERY SHOULD BE
FAIR...EXCEPT FOR THE BREEZY/WINDY PERIOD THURSDAY NIGHT. AFTERNOON
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN 8 TO 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AZ...NONE.
CA...NONE.
&&

$$

VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/PHOENIX

DISCUSSION...WATERS/LEINS/NOLTE
AVIATION....MCLANE
FIRE WEATHER...VASQUEZ/LEINS




000
FXUS65 KFGZ 312153
AFDFGZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ
253 PM MST TUE MAR 31 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE AGAIN TODAY...WITH A
COOLING TREND AS THE WEEK EVOLVES. THE MAIN IMPACT DURING THE
SEVEN-DAY FORECAST WILL BE THE RETURN OF GUSTY SPRINGTIME
WINDS AND POSSIBLY CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS HAVE DEVELOPED THIS AFTERNOON ALONG THE FAR
EASTERN MOGOLLON RIM AND WHITE MOUNTAINS REGION AND ARE MOVING
EAST/NORTHEAST INTO THE ADJACENT LITTLE COLORADO RIVER VALLEY. A
CHANCE FOR SHOWERS...AND POSSIBLY A THUNDERSTORM... WILL CONTINUE
IN THESE AREAS THROUGH AROUND SUNSET BEFORE DIMINISHING.
ELSEWHERE WARM AND BREEZY CONDITIONS CONTINUE.

THE FOCUS OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS TURNS TO A DEEPENING TROUGH
MOVING INTO THE WESTERN STATES THAT WILL BRING A PERIOD OF WINDY
CONDITIONS TO NORTHERN ARIZONA. WIND SPEEDS WILL INCREASE ON
WEDNESDAY WITH GUSTS RANGING FROM 25 TO 35 MPH. WIND SPEEDS WILL
INCREASE FURTHER ON THURSDAY AS A DRY COLD FRONT MOVES INTO
NORTHERN ARIZONA AND MOST AREAS WILL SEE GUSTS IN THE 35 TO 45 MPH
RANGE. WHEN COMBINED WITH DRY CONDITIONS...THIS MAY RESULT IN
AREAS OF CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS THURSDAY AFTERNOON.
TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO RUN ABOVE NORMAL...THOUGH WILL TREND
CLOSER TO NORMAL BY FRIDAY BEHIND THE FRONT.

FLAT WESTERLY FLOW DEVELOPS FRIDAY AND SATURDAY WITH A RETURN OF
WARMER THAN AVERAGE TEMPERATURES. BY SUNDAY SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW
INCREASES AHEAD OF A TROUGH MOVING INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST.
ANOTHER PERIOD OF BREEZY TO WINDY CONDITIONS LOOKS LIKELY LATE IN
THE WEEKEND THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 00Z PACKAGE...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO
PERSIST THROUGHOUT THE NEXT TWENTY-FOUR HOURS. A FEW HIGH BASED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE MOUNTAIN ZONES IN NORTHEASTERN
ARIZONA WILL DIMINISH LATER THIS EVENING. AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT
UPDATED FOR TAF AMENDMENTS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...EXPECT INCREASING WINDS ON WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND
THURSDAY AS A DRY COLD FRONT MOVES IN FROM THE NORTH. ON THURSDAY
STRONGER WINDS ALONG WITH DRY HUMIDITY LEVELS WILL LIKELY BRING
CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS TO PORTIONS OF NORTHEASTERN
ARIZONA. A FIRE WEATHER WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FROM THE MOGOLLON RIM
NORTH TO THE UTAH BORDER REGION.

FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...WIND SPEEDS WILL WEAKEN ON FRIDAY WITH DRY
AND WINDY WEATHER CONDITIONS RETURNING THIS WEEKEND BRINGING ANOTHER
ROUND OF CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS.

&&

.FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY
EVENING FOR AZZ109>114-116-117-139-140.

&&

$$

PUBLIC.........MCS
AVIATION.......BOHLIN
FIRE WEATHER...BOHLIN

FOR NORTHERN ARIZONA WEATHER INFORMATION VISIT
WEATHER.GOV/FLAGSTAFF






000
FXUS65 KTWC 312102
AFDTWC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ
200 PM MST TUE MAR 31 2015

.SYNOPSIS...A FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CAN BE EXPECTED NEAR THE
INTERNATIONAL BORDER AND ACROSS THE WHITE MOUNTAINS EARLY THIS
EVENING. DRY CONDITIONS WITH CONTINUED ABOVE NORMAL DAYTIME
TEMPERATURES WILL THEN PREVAIL WEDNESDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
EXPECT GUSTY WINDS AT TIMES INTO THE WEEKEND...AND THE STRONGEST
WINDS SHOULD OCCUR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...A WEAK UPPER LOW TRACKING THROUGH MEXICO WILL EXIT THE
REGION TONIGHT. ENOUGH MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY HAD RESULTED IN A
FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON...MAINLY IN THE WHITE
MOUNTAINS AND NEAR THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER. WILL KEEP THE MENTION
OF THIS ACTIVITY THROUGH EARLY THIS EVENING WITH MOST OF IT
DISSIPATING AFTER SUNDOWN. THE MAIN WEATHER STORY WILL BE THE
INCREASE IN WIND TOMORROW AND MORE SO THURSDAY. LATEST MODELS TRACK
THE TAIL END OF A SYSTEM THROUGH SOUTHERN ARIZONA ON THURSDAY.
THUS...EXPECTING WINDS TO PICKUP IN ADVANCE OF THE SYSTEM TOMORROW
AND INCREASING MORE ON THURSDAY AS IT PASSES THROUGH THE REGION. THE
INCREASE IN WIND AND DRY CONDITIONS WILL RESULT IN SOME FIRE WEATHER
CONCERNS...ESPECIALLY FOR THE WHITE MOUNTAINS ON THURSDAY. PLEASE
REFER TO THE FIRE WEATHER SECTION IN THIS PRODUCT FOR MORE DETAILS.
CONTINUED DRY WITH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES INTO THE WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION...VALID THRU 02/00Z.
ISOLATED -SHRA/-TSRA THIS AFTERNOON WITH BASES 10-13 KFT
AGL...MAINLY FOCUSED NEAR HIGHER TERRAIN ACROSS AREAS EAST AND SOUTH
OF KTUS. A FEW BRIEF GUSTS TO 40 KTS WILL BE POSSIBLE NEAR ANY
-SHRA/-TSRA ACTIVITY. CLEARING SKIES...WITH JUST SOME HIGH-LEVEL
CIRRUS TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. LOCALLY GUSTY WEST/SOUTHWEST WINDS
WILL DECREASE THIS EVENING BEFORE ONCE AGAIN INCREASING TO 12-18 KTS
WITH GUSTS TO 25-30 KTS TOMORROW AFTERNOON. AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT
UPDATED FOR TAF AMENDMENTS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON MAINLY ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN TO THE
EAST AND SOUTH OF TUCSON. GIVEN THE VERY DRY SURFACE REGIME...BRIEF
GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS MAY OCCUR NEAR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
DRY CONDITIONS WITH CONTINUED ABOVE NORMAL DAYTIME TEMPERATURES WILL
THEN PREVAIL WEDNESDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

GUSTY WEST/SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL OCCUR MAINLY DURING THE AFTERNOON
AND EARLY EVENING HOURS INTO THIS WEEKEND. THE STRONGEST WINDS
SHOULD PREVAIL WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. ANTICIPATING HIGH COVERAGE OF
SUSTAINED WINDS IN EXCESS OF 20 KTS WITH GUSTS TO 35 KTS...DAYTIME
MINIMUM RH VALUES APPROACHING 10 PERCENT ON THURSDAY AFTERNOON...AND
THE PRESENCE OF HIGH FIRE DANGER IN THE WHITE MOUNTAINS.
THEREFORE...HAVE GONE AHEAD AND ISSUED A FIRE WEATHER WATCH VALID
BETWEEN 10AM-8PM MST THURSDAY FOR ALL OF FIRE WEATHER ZONE 153.
FIELD CREWS ARE ENCOURAGED TO MONITOR SUBSEQUENT FORECASTS FOR THE
POTENTIAL ISSUANCE OF A RED FLAG WARNING.

&&

.TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
   FIRE WEATHER WATCH FOR ZONE 153 THURSDAY.

&&

$$

VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...YOUTUBE...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/TUCSON










000
FXUS65 KTWC 312102
AFDTWC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ
200 PM MST TUE MAR 31 2015

.SYNOPSIS...A FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CAN BE EXPECTED NEAR THE
INTERNATIONAL BORDER AND ACROSS THE WHITE MOUNTAINS EARLY THIS
EVENING. DRY CONDITIONS WITH CONTINUED ABOVE NORMAL DAYTIME
TEMPERATURES WILL THEN PREVAIL WEDNESDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
EXPECT GUSTY WINDS AT TIMES INTO THE WEEKEND...AND THE STRONGEST
WINDS SHOULD OCCUR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...A WEAK UPPER LOW TRACKING THROUGH MEXICO WILL EXIT THE
REGION TONIGHT. ENOUGH MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY HAD RESULTED IN A
FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON...MAINLY IN THE WHITE
MOUNTAINS AND NEAR THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER. WILL KEEP THE MENTION
OF THIS ACTIVITY THROUGH EARLY THIS EVENING WITH MOST OF IT
DISSIPATING AFTER SUNDOWN. THE MAIN WEATHER STORY WILL BE THE
INCREASE IN WIND TOMORROW AND MORE SO THURSDAY. LATEST MODELS TRACK
THE TAIL END OF A SYSTEM THROUGH SOUTHERN ARIZONA ON THURSDAY.
THUS...EXPECTING WINDS TO PICKUP IN ADVANCE OF THE SYSTEM TOMORROW
AND INCREASING MORE ON THURSDAY AS IT PASSES THROUGH THE REGION. THE
INCREASE IN WIND AND DRY CONDITIONS WILL RESULT IN SOME FIRE WEATHER
CONCERNS...ESPECIALLY FOR THE WHITE MOUNTAINS ON THURSDAY. PLEASE
REFER TO THE FIRE WEATHER SECTION IN THIS PRODUCT FOR MORE DETAILS.
CONTINUED DRY WITH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES INTO THE WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION...VALID THRU 02/00Z.
ISOLATED -SHRA/-TSRA THIS AFTERNOON WITH BASES 10-13 KFT
AGL...MAINLY FOCUSED NEAR HIGHER TERRAIN ACROSS AREAS EAST AND SOUTH
OF KTUS. A FEW BRIEF GUSTS TO 40 KTS WILL BE POSSIBLE NEAR ANY
-SHRA/-TSRA ACTIVITY. CLEARING SKIES...WITH JUST SOME HIGH-LEVEL
CIRRUS TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. LOCALLY GUSTY WEST/SOUTHWEST WINDS
WILL DECREASE THIS EVENING BEFORE ONCE AGAIN INCREASING TO 12-18 KTS
WITH GUSTS TO 25-30 KTS TOMORROW AFTERNOON. AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT
UPDATED FOR TAF AMENDMENTS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON MAINLY ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN TO THE
EAST AND SOUTH OF TUCSON. GIVEN THE VERY DRY SURFACE REGIME...BRIEF
GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS MAY OCCUR NEAR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
DRY CONDITIONS WITH CONTINUED ABOVE NORMAL DAYTIME TEMPERATURES WILL
THEN PREVAIL WEDNESDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

GUSTY WEST/SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL OCCUR MAINLY DURING THE AFTERNOON
AND EARLY EVENING HOURS INTO THIS WEEKEND. THE STRONGEST WINDS
SHOULD PREVAIL WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. ANTICIPATING HIGH COVERAGE OF
SUSTAINED WINDS IN EXCESS OF 20 KTS WITH GUSTS TO 35 KTS...DAYTIME
MINIMUM RH VALUES APPROACHING 10 PERCENT ON THURSDAY AFTERNOON...AND
THE PRESENCE OF HIGH FIRE DANGER IN THE WHITE MOUNTAINS.
THEREFORE...HAVE GONE AHEAD AND ISSUED A FIRE WEATHER WATCH VALID
BETWEEN 10AM-8PM MST THURSDAY FOR ALL OF FIRE WEATHER ZONE 153.
FIELD CREWS ARE ENCOURAGED TO MONITOR SUBSEQUENT FORECASTS FOR THE
POTENTIAL ISSUANCE OF A RED FLAG WARNING.

&&

.TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
   FIRE WEATHER WATCH FOR ZONE 153 THURSDAY.

&&

$$

VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...YOUTUBE...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/TUCSON











000
FXUS65 KTWC 312102
AFDTWC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ
200 PM MST TUE MAR 31 2015

.SYNOPSIS...A FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CAN BE EXPECTED NEAR THE
INTERNATIONAL BORDER AND ACROSS THE WHITE MOUNTAINS EARLY THIS
EVENING. DRY CONDITIONS WITH CONTINUED ABOVE NORMAL DAYTIME
TEMPERATURES WILL THEN PREVAIL WEDNESDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
EXPECT GUSTY WINDS AT TIMES INTO THE WEEKEND...AND THE STRONGEST
WINDS SHOULD OCCUR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...A WEAK UPPER LOW TRACKING THROUGH MEXICO WILL EXIT THE
REGION TONIGHT. ENOUGH MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY HAD RESULTED IN A
FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON...MAINLY IN THE WHITE
MOUNTAINS AND NEAR THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER. WILL KEEP THE MENTION
OF THIS ACTIVITY THROUGH EARLY THIS EVENING WITH MOST OF IT
DISSIPATING AFTER SUNDOWN. THE MAIN WEATHER STORY WILL BE THE
INCREASE IN WIND TOMORROW AND MORE SO THURSDAY. LATEST MODELS TRACK
THE TAIL END OF A SYSTEM THROUGH SOUTHERN ARIZONA ON THURSDAY.
THUS...EXPECTING WINDS TO PICKUP IN ADVANCE OF THE SYSTEM TOMORROW
AND INCREASING MORE ON THURSDAY AS IT PASSES THROUGH THE REGION. THE
INCREASE IN WIND AND DRY CONDITIONS WILL RESULT IN SOME FIRE WEATHER
CONCERNS...ESPECIALLY FOR THE WHITE MOUNTAINS ON THURSDAY. PLEASE
REFER TO THE FIRE WEATHER SECTION IN THIS PRODUCT FOR MORE DETAILS.
CONTINUED DRY WITH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES INTO THE WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION...VALID THRU 02/00Z.
ISOLATED -SHRA/-TSRA THIS AFTERNOON WITH BASES 10-13 KFT
AGL...MAINLY FOCUSED NEAR HIGHER TERRAIN ACROSS AREAS EAST AND SOUTH
OF KTUS. A FEW BRIEF GUSTS TO 40 KTS WILL BE POSSIBLE NEAR ANY
-SHRA/-TSRA ACTIVITY. CLEARING SKIES...WITH JUST SOME HIGH-LEVEL
CIRRUS TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. LOCALLY GUSTY WEST/SOUTHWEST WINDS
WILL DECREASE THIS EVENING BEFORE ONCE AGAIN INCREASING TO 12-18 KTS
WITH GUSTS TO 25-30 KTS TOMORROW AFTERNOON. AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT
UPDATED FOR TAF AMENDMENTS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON MAINLY ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN TO THE
EAST AND SOUTH OF TUCSON. GIVEN THE VERY DRY SURFACE REGIME...BRIEF
GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS MAY OCCUR NEAR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
DRY CONDITIONS WITH CONTINUED ABOVE NORMAL DAYTIME TEMPERATURES WILL
THEN PREVAIL WEDNESDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

GUSTY WEST/SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL OCCUR MAINLY DURING THE AFTERNOON
AND EARLY EVENING HOURS INTO THIS WEEKEND. THE STRONGEST WINDS
SHOULD PREVAIL WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. ANTICIPATING HIGH COVERAGE OF
SUSTAINED WINDS IN EXCESS OF 20 KTS WITH GUSTS TO 35 KTS...DAYTIME
MINIMUM RH VALUES APPROACHING 10 PERCENT ON THURSDAY AFTERNOON...AND
THE PRESENCE OF HIGH FIRE DANGER IN THE WHITE MOUNTAINS.
THEREFORE...HAVE GONE AHEAD AND ISSUED A FIRE WEATHER WATCH VALID
BETWEEN 10AM-8PM MST THURSDAY FOR ALL OF FIRE WEATHER ZONE 153.
FIELD CREWS ARE ENCOURAGED TO MONITOR SUBSEQUENT FORECASTS FOR THE
POTENTIAL ISSUANCE OF A RED FLAG WARNING.

&&

.TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
   FIRE WEATHER WATCH FOR ZONE 153 THURSDAY.

&&

$$

VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...YOUTUBE...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/TUCSON










000
FXUS65 KPSR 312031
AFDPSR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PHOENIX AZ
131 PM MST TUE MAR 31 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
NEAR RECORD TEMPERATURES ARE ONCE AGAIN POSSIBLE ACROSS PORTIONS OF
THE LOWER DESERTS THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON. A DRY WEATHER SYSTEM WILL
MOVE INTO THE REGION FROM THE GREAT BASIN LATE WEDNESDAY THROUGH
FRIDAY...USHERING IN COOLER TEMPERATURES AND INCREASING WINDS. DRY
CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH CONTINUED ABOVE
NORMAL TEMPERATURES WITH DAYTIME HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S TO LOW 90S.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE BEGINNING TO DEVELOP ACROSS EASTERN ARIZONA
THIS AFTERNOON IN AN AREA OF ANOMALOUSLY HIGH PRECIPITABLE WATER
/95TH PERCENTILE FOR THE END OF MARCH/...AND IN AN AREA OF WEAK
ISENTROPIC ASCENT ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAK TROUGH OVER CENTRAL SONORA. STORMS
ARE PRIMARILY LOCATED ALONG THE HIGHEST PEAKS ALTHOUGH A FEW ISOLATED
SHOWERS APPEAR TO BE DRIFTING TOWARD EXTREME EASTERN GILA COUNTY.
MEANWHILE ACROSS THE LOWER DESERTS OF SOUTH- CENTRAL ARIZONA AND
SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA...SKIES ARE MOSTLY CLEAR AND TEMPS ARE WELL INTO
THE LOWER 90S AS OF 20Z.

ISOLATED SHOWERS WILL DISSIPATE QUICKLY THIS EVENING WITH THE LOSS OF
DAYTIME HEATING AND AS SUBSIDENCE BEHIND THE DEPARTING TROUGH TAKES
HOLD OVER EASTERN ARIZONA. IN THE WAKE OF THIS UPPER TROUGH...DRIER
AIR WILL BEGIN TO MOVE INTO THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY...WITH A
REINFORCING SHOT OF DRIER AIR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY COURTESY OF ANOTHER
SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING THROUGH THE GREAT BASIN. THE COMBINATION OF
DRY AIR AND BREEZY WINDS WILL RESULT IN ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER
CONDITIONS ON THURSDAY...ALTHOUGH WIDESPREAD CRITICAL THRESHOLDS
SHOULD NOT BE REALIZED. WINDS WILL BE STRONGEST DOWN THE LOWER
COLORADO RIVER VALLEY ON THURSDAY ALTHOUGH LATEST HI-RES WRF MODELS
AND OTHER HI-RES DATASETS SUGGEST WIND SPEEDS WILL REMAIN BELOW WIND
ADVISORY CRITERIA. THE TROUGH WILL ALSO SERVE TO COOL DOWN
TEMPERATURES EVER SO SLIGHTLY...BRINGING THEM MORE INTO LINE WITH
CLIMATOLOGICAL NORMALS FOR EARLY APRIL. LATE WEEK TEMPERATURES WILL
FALL INTO THE MID/UPPER 80S BY THURSDAY/FRIDAY...WITH A REBOUND INTO
THE LOWER 90S EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

AFTER THE LATE WEEK SHORTWAVE CLEARS THE REGION...BROAD TROUGH
HEIGHTS/SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW REMAIN OVER MUCH OF THE WESTERN CONUS
THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. OPERATIONAL GFS/ECMWF SOLNS ADVERTISE
A LARGE SHORTWAVE MOVING OFF THE PACIFIC LATE SUNDAY/EARLY
MONDAY...HOWEVER THEIR ENSEMBLE (GEFS/NAEFS/ECENS) COUNTERPARTS DO
LITTLE TO INSPIRE CONFIDENCE IN THE EVOLUTION OF THAT SYSTEM.
BROADBRUSH FORECAST WILL HOLD THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK OF CONTINUED DRY CONDITIONS AND SLIGHTLY ABOVE-CLIMO
TEMPERATURES.

&&

.CLIMATE...

RECORD HIGHS THIS WEEK...

CITY        MARCH 31
--------    --------
PHOENIX     94 IN 2012/2004/1989
YUMA        100 IN 2011

&&

.AVIATION...
SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA INCLUDING KPHX...KIWA...AND KSDL...AND
SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA AND SOUTHWEST ARIZONA INCLUDING KIPL AND KBLH...

A WEAK WEATHER DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE ACROSS NORTHERN AZ TODAY...
BRINGING GUSTY AFTERNOON/EVENING SOUTHWEST TO WEST WINDS ACROSS THE
REGION. STRONGEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED LATE AFTERNOON TO EARLY
EVENING...WHEN GUSTS UP TO 24 KTS ARE POSSIBLE. OTHERWISE EXPECT
ONLY OCCASIONAL PERIODS OF HIGH CLOUDINESS.

AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDED TAFS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

...GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS AND VERY LOW HUMIDITY AREA-WIDE THURSDAY
AFTERNOON FOR MARGINAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS...

THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY...

A SERIES OF WEATHER DISTURBANCES WILL MOVE ACROSS THE WESTERN STATES
MAINLY NORTH OF AZ FOR ENHANCED AFTERNOON BREEZES EACH DAY. HOWEVER
ONE STRONGER DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE FARTHER SOUTH ACROSS NORTHERN AZ
THURSDAY GENERATING GUSTY NORTH TO NORTHWEST WINDS 15 TO 25 MPH WITH
GUSTS TO 30 MPH. A SIGNIFICANTLY DRIER AIRMASS FROM THE NORTH WILL
ALSO SWEEP ACROSS THE REGION. MARGINAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED THURSDAY ESPECIALLY ALONG THE LOWER COLORADO RIVER VALLEY AS
WELL AS THE RIDGETOPS OF SOUTHERN GILA COUNTY. OTHERWISE...BREEZY
CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST EACH AFTERNOON WITH MINIMUM RELATIVE
HUMIDITIES IN THE 5 TO 10 PERCENT RANGE. OVERNIGHT RECOVERY SHOULD BE
FAIR...EXCEPT FOR THE BREEZY/WINDY PERIOD THURSDAY NIGHT. AFTERNOON
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN 8 TO 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AZ...NONE.
CA...NONE.
&&

$$

VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/PHOENIX

DISCUSSION...LEINS/NOLTE
AVIATION....MCLANE
FIRE WEATHER...VASQUEZ/LEINS



000
FXUS65 KPSR 312031
AFDPSR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PHOENIX AZ
131 PM MST TUE MAR 31 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
NEAR RECORD TEMPERATURES ARE ONCE AGAIN POSSIBLE ACROSS PORTIONS OF
THE LOWER DESERTS THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON. A DRY WEATHER SYSTEM WILL
MOVE INTO THE REGION FROM THE GREAT BASIN LATE WEDNESDAY THROUGH
FRIDAY...USHERING IN COOLER TEMPERATURES AND INCREASING WINDS. DRY
CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH CONTINUED ABOVE
NORMAL TEMPERATURES WITH DAYTIME HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S TO LOW 90S.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE BEGINNING TO DEVELOP ACROSS EASTERN ARIZONA
THIS AFTERNOON IN AN AREA OF ANOMALOUSLY HIGH PRECIPITABLE WATER
/95TH PERCENTILE FOR THE END OF MARCH/...AND IN AN AREA OF WEAK
ISENTROPIC ASCENT ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAK TROUGH OVER CENTRAL SONORA. STORMS
ARE PRIMARILY LOCATED ALONG THE HIGHEST PEAKS ALTHOUGH A FEW ISOLATED
SHOWERS APPEAR TO BE DRIFTING TOWARD EXTREME EASTERN GILA COUNTY.
MEANWHILE ACROSS THE LOWER DESERTS OF SOUTH- CENTRAL ARIZONA AND
SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA...SKIES ARE MOSTLY CLEAR AND TEMPS ARE WELL INTO
THE LOWER 90S AS OF 20Z.

ISOLATED SHOWERS WILL DISSIPATE QUICKLY THIS EVENING WITH THE LOSS OF
DAYTIME HEATING AND AS SUBSIDENCE BEHIND THE DEPARTING TROUGH TAKES
HOLD OVER EASTERN ARIZONA. IN THE WAKE OF THIS UPPER TROUGH...DRIER
AIR WILL BEGIN TO MOVE INTO THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY...WITH A
REINFORCING SHOT OF DRIER AIR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY COURTESY OF ANOTHER
SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING THROUGH THE GREAT BASIN. THE COMBINATION OF
DRY AIR AND BREEZY WINDS WILL RESULT IN ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER
CONDITIONS ON THURSDAY...ALTHOUGH WIDESPREAD CRITICAL THRESHOLDS
SHOULD NOT BE REALIZED. WINDS WILL BE STRONGEST DOWN THE LOWER
COLORADO RIVER VALLEY ON THURSDAY ALTHOUGH LATEST HI-RES WRF MODELS
AND OTHER HI-RES DATASETS SUGGEST WIND SPEEDS WILL REMAIN BELOW WIND
ADVISORY CRITERIA. THE TROUGH WILL ALSO SERVE TO COOL DOWN
TEMPERATURES EVER SO SLIGHTLY...BRINGING THEM MORE INTO LINE WITH
CLIMATOLOGICAL NORMALS FOR EARLY APRIL. LATE WEEK TEMPERATURES WILL
FALL INTO THE MID/UPPER 80S BY THURSDAY/FRIDAY...WITH A REBOUND INTO
THE LOWER 90S EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

AFTER THE LATE WEEK SHORTWAVE CLEARS THE REGION...BROAD TROUGH
HEIGHTS/SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW REMAIN OVER MUCH OF THE WESTERN CONUS
THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. OPERATIONAL GFS/ECMWF SOLNS ADVERTISE
A LARGE SHORTWAVE MOVING OFF THE PACIFIC LATE SUNDAY/EARLY
MONDAY...HOWEVER THEIR ENSEMBLE (GEFS/NAEFS/ECENS) COUNTERPARTS DO
LITTLE TO INSPIRE CONFIDENCE IN THE EVOLUTION OF THAT SYSTEM.
BROADBRUSH FORECAST WILL HOLD THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK OF CONTINUED DRY CONDITIONS AND SLIGHTLY ABOVE-CLIMO
TEMPERATURES.

&&

.CLIMATE...

RECORD HIGHS THIS WEEK...

CITY        MARCH 31
--------    --------
PHOENIX     94 IN 2012/2004/1989
YUMA        100 IN 2011

&&

.AVIATION...
SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA INCLUDING KPHX...KIWA...AND KSDL...AND
SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA AND SOUTHWEST ARIZONA INCLUDING KIPL AND KBLH...

A WEAK WEATHER DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE ACROSS NORTHERN AZ TODAY...
BRINGING GUSTY AFTERNOON/EVENING SOUTHWEST TO WEST WINDS ACROSS THE
REGION. STRONGEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED LATE AFTERNOON TO EARLY
EVENING...WHEN GUSTS UP TO 24 KTS ARE POSSIBLE. OTHERWISE EXPECT
ONLY OCCASIONAL PERIODS OF HIGH CLOUDINESS.

AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDED TAFS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

...GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS AND VERY LOW HUMIDITY AREA-WIDE THURSDAY
AFTERNOON FOR MARGINAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS...

THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY...

A SERIES OF WEATHER DISTURBANCES WILL MOVE ACROSS THE WESTERN STATES
MAINLY NORTH OF AZ FOR ENHANCED AFTERNOON BREEZES EACH DAY. HOWEVER
ONE STRONGER DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE FARTHER SOUTH ACROSS NORTHERN AZ
THURSDAY GENERATING GUSTY NORTH TO NORTHWEST WINDS 15 TO 25 MPH WITH
GUSTS TO 30 MPH. A SIGNIFICANTLY DRIER AIRMASS FROM THE NORTH WILL
ALSO SWEEP ACROSS THE REGION. MARGINAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED THURSDAY ESPECIALLY ALONG THE LOWER COLORADO RIVER VALLEY AS
WELL AS THE RIDGETOPS OF SOUTHERN GILA COUNTY. OTHERWISE...BREEZY
CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST EACH AFTERNOON WITH MINIMUM RELATIVE
HUMIDITIES IN THE 5 TO 10 PERCENT RANGE. OVERNIGHT RECOVERY SHOULD BE
FAIR...EXCEPT FOR THE BREEZY/WINDY PERIOD THURSDAY NIGHT. AFTERNOON
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN 8 TO 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AZ...NONE.
CA...NONE.
&&

$$

VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/PHOENIX

DISCUSSION...LEINS/NOLTE
AVIATION....MCLANE
FIRE WEATHER...VASQUEZ/LEINS



000
FXUS65 KPSR 312031
AFDPSR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PHOENIX AZ
131 PM MST TUE MAR 31 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
NEAR RECORD TEMPERATURES ARE ONCE AGAIN POSSIBLE ACROSS PORTIONS OF
THE LOWER DESERTS THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON. A DRY WEATHER SYSTEM WILL
MOVE INTO THE REGION FROM THE GREAT BASIN LATE WEDNESDAY THROUGH
FRIDAY...USHERING IN COOLER TEMPERATURES AND INCREASING WINDS. DRY
CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH CONTINUED ABOVE
NORMAL TEMPERATURES WITH DAYTIME HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S TO LOW 90S.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE BEGINNING TO DEVELOP ACROSS EASTERN ARIZONA
THIS AFTERNOON IN AN AREA OF ANOMALOUSLY HIGH PRECIPITABLE WATER
/95TH PERCENTILE FOR THE END OF MARCH/...AND IN AN AREA OF WEAK
ISENTROPIC ASCENT ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAK TROUGH OVER CENTRAL SONORA. STORMS
ARE PRIMARILY LOCATED ALONG THE HIGHEST PEAKS ALTHOUGH A FEW ISOLATED
SHOWERS APPEAR TO BE DRIFTING TOWARD EXTREME EASTERN GILA COUNTY.
MEANWHILE ACROSS THE LOWER DESERTS OF SOUTH- CENTRAL ARIZONA AND
SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA...SKIES ARE MOSTLY CLEAR AND TEMPS ARE WELL INTO
THE LOWER 90S AS OF 20Z.

ISOLATED SHOWERS WILL DISSIPATE QUICKLY THIS EVENING WITH THE LOSS OF
DAYTIME HEATING AND AS SUBSIDENCE BEHIND THE DEPARTING TROUGH TAKES
HOLD OVER EASTERN ARIZONA. IN THE WAKE OF THIS UPPER TROUGH...DRIER
AIR WILL BEGIN TO MOVE INTO THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY...WITH A
REINFORCING SHOT OF DRIER AIR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY COURTESY OF ANOTHER
SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING THROUGH THE GREAT BASIN. THE COMBINATION OF
DRY AIR AND BREEZY WINDS WILL RESULT IN ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER
CONDITIONS ON THURSDAY...ALTHOUGH WIDESPREAD CRITICAL THRESHOLDS
SHOULD NOT BE REALIZED. WINDS WILL BE STRONGEST DOWN THE LOWER
COLORADO RIVER VALLEY ON THURSDAY ALTHOUGH LATEST HI-RES WRF MODELS
AND OTHER HI-RES DATASETS SUGGEST WIND SPEEDS WILL REMAIN BELOW WIND
ADVISORY CRITERIA. THE TROUGH WILL ALSO SERVE TO COOL DOWN
TEMPERATURES EVER SO SLIGHTLY...BRINGING THEM MORE INTO LINE WITH
CLIMATOLOGICAL NORMALS FOR EARLY APRIL. LATE WEEK TEMPERATURES WILL
FALL INTO THE MID/UPPER 80S BY THURSDAY/FRIDAY...WITH A REBOUND INTO
THE LOWER 90S EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

AFTER THE LATE WEEK SHORTWAVE CLEARS THE REGION...BROAD TROUGH
HEIGHTS/SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW REMAIN OVER MUCH OF THE WESTERN CONUS
THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. OPERATIONAL GFS/ECMWF SOLNS ADVERTISE
A LARGE SHORTWAVE MOVING OFF THE PACIFIC LATE SUNDAY/EARLY
MONDAY...HOWEVER THEIR ENSEMBLE (GEFS/NAEFS/ECENS) COUNTERPARTS DO
LITTLE TO INSPIRE CONFIDENCE IN THE EVOLUTION OF THAT SYSTEM.
BROADBRUSH FORECAST WILL HOLD THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK OF CONTINUED DRY CONDITIONS AND SLIGHTLY ABOVE-CLIMO
TEMPERATURES.

&&

.CLIMATE...

RECORD HIGHS THIS WEEK...

CITY        MARCH 31
--------    --------
PHOENIX     94 IN 2012/2004/1989
YUMA        100 IN 2011

&&

.AVIATION...
SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA INCLUDING KPHX...KIWA...AND KSDL...AND
SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA AND SOUTHWEST ARIZONA INCLUDING KIPL AND KBLH...

A WEAK WEATHER DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE ACROSS NORTHERN AZ TODAY...
BRINGING GUSTY AFTERNOON/EVENING SOUTHWEST TO WEST WINDS ACROSS THE
REGION. STRONGEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED LATE AFTERNOON TO EARLY
EVENING...WHEN GUSTS UP TO 24 KTS ARE POSSIBLE. OTHERWISE EXPECT
ONLY OCCASIONAL PERIODS OF HIGH CLOUDINESS.

AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDED TAFS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

...GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS AND VERY LOW HUMIDITY AREA-WIDE THURSDAY
AFTERNOON FOR MARGINAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS...

THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY...

A SERIES OF WEATHER DISTURBANCES WILL MOVE ACROSS THE WESTERN STATES
MAINLY NORTH OF AZ FOR ENHANCED AFTERNOON BREEZES EACH DAY. HOWEVER
ONE STRONGER DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE FARTHER SOUTH ACROSS NORTHERN AZ
THURSDAY GENERATING GUSTY NORTH TO NORTHWEST WINDS 15 TO 25 MPH WITH
GUSTS TO 30 MPH. A SIGNIFICANTLY DRIER AIRMASS FROM THE NORTH WILL
ALSO SWEEP ACROSS THE REGION. MARGINAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED THURSDAY ESPECIALLY ALONG THE LOWER COLORADO RIVER VALLEY AS
WELL AS THE RIDGETOPS OF SOUTHERN GILA COUNTY. OTHERWISE...BREEZY
CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST EACH AFTERNOON WITH MINIMUM RELATIVE
HUMIDITIES IN THE 5 TO 10 PERCENT RANGE. OVERNIGHT RECOVERY SHOULD BE
FAIR...EXCEPT FOR THE BREEZY/WINDY PERIOD THURSDAY NIGHT. AFTERNOON
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN 8 TO 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AZ...NONE.
CA...NONE.
&&

$$

VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/PHOENIX

DISCUSSION...LEINS/NOLTE
AVIATION....MCLANE
FIRE WEATHER...VASQUEZ/LEINS




000
FXUS65 KTWC 311637
AFDTWC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ
936 AM MST TUE MAR 31 2015

.SYNOPSIS...A FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAY OCCUR MAINLY NEAR
THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER SOUTHEAST OF TUCSON AND ACROSS THE WHITE
MOUNTAINS THIS AFTERNOON. DRY CONDITIONS WITH CONTINUED ABOVE NORMAL
DAYTIME TEMPERATURES WILL THEN PREVAIL WEDNESDAY INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK. EXPECT GUSTY WINDS AT TIMES INTO THE WEEKEND...AND THE
STRONGEST WINDS SHOULD OCCUR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...UPPER LOW MOVING SOUTH OF THE AREA WITH A FEW SHOWERS
STILL POSSIBLE OVER THE MOUNTAINS NEAR THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER
TODAY. OTHERWISE...DRY CONDITIONS WITH SOME GUSTY WINDS THIS
AFTERNOON. CURRENT FORECAST LOOKED ON TRACK...SO NO UPDATES
NECESSARY THIS MORNING. PLEASE REFER TO THE ADDITIONAL SECTIONS FOR
MORE DETAILS.

&&

.AVIATION...VALID THRU 01/18Z.
THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF -TSRA/-SHRA THIS AFTERNOON MAINLY NEAR
THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER SOUTH-TO-SOUTHEAST OF KTUS...AND ACROSS THE
WHITE MOUNTAINS NE OF KSAD. BRIEF WIND GUSTS TO AROUND 40 KTS MAY
ACCOMPANY ANY -TSRA. KOLS AND KDUG WILL BE MOST PRONE TO THESE
GUSTS...BUT THE EXPECTED OCCURRENCE IS TOO LOW TO INCLUDE IN THE
TAFS. OTHERWISE...SCT-OVC CLOUDS AT 10-15K FT AGL TODAY MAINLY EAST
OF KTUS WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES WEST OF KTUS...THEN CLEARING SKIES
THIS EVENING. EXPECT A FEW-SCT CIRRUS CLOUDS LATE TONIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY MORNING. SURFACE WIND THIS AFTERNOON WILL BE WLY/NWLY
12-18 KTS WITH GUSTS OF 25-30 KTS. OTHERWISE...SURFACE WIND WILL BE
LESS THAN 10 KTS. AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR TAF AMENDMENTS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON MAINLY NEAR THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER
ADJACENT COCHISE COUNTY AND SANTA CRUZ COUNTY...AND ACROSS THE WHITE
MOUNTAINS. GIVEN THE VERY DRY SURFACE REGIME...BRIEF GUSTY AND
ERRATIC WINDS MAY OCCUR NEAR THUNDERSTORMS. DRY CONDITIONS WITH
CONTINUED ABOVE NORMAL DAYTIME TEMPERATURES WILL THEN PREVAIL
WEDNESDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

GUSTY WINDS WILL OCCUR MAINLY DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING
HOURS INTO THIS WEEKEND. THE STRONGEST WINDS SHOULD PREVAIL
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. THE BEST OCCURRENCE FOR WIDESPREAD RED
FLAG CRITERIA IS MAINLY NEAR THE NEW MEXICO BORDER LATE THURSDAY
AFTERNOON AND EARLY THURSDAY EVENING. FIELD CREWS ARE ENCOURAGED TO
MONITOR SUBSEQUENT FORECASTS FOR THE POTENTIAL ISSUANCE OF A FIRE
WEATHER WATCH OR RED FLAG WARNING.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...WEAK UPPER LOW JUST SOUTH OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA
SPUR EARLY THIS MORNING WILL MOVE EWD INTO WRN CHIHUAHUA THIS
AFTERNOON. THERE IS ENOUGH MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY TO MAINTAIN A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS/TSTMS THIS AFTERNOON MAINLY NEAR THE
INTERNATIONAL BORDER ADJACENT SANTA CRUZ/COCHISE COUNTIES. ANOTHER
IMPULSE PRESENTLY OVER NWRN AZ WILL MOVE EWD TO NEAR THE FOUR
CORNERS REGION THIS AFTERNOON. THIS SYSTEM WILL ALSO PROVIDE A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS/TSTMS ACROSS THE WHITE MOUNTAINS THIS
AFTERNOON. ANY MEASURABLE RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL BE LIGHT...WITH ONLY
A FEW HUNDREDTHS OF AN INCH EXPECTED. DRY CONDITIONS WILL THEN OCCUR
AREA-WIDE THIS EVENING FOLLOWED BY CLEAR SKIES OR MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES
LATE TONIGHT.

ZONAL FLOW ALOFT WILL PREVAIL WED-THUR...THEN GENERALLY SWLY FLOW
ALOFT WILL OCCUR FRI-MON IN RESPONSE TO A LOW PRESSURE TROUGH NEAR
THE WEST COAST. PRECIP-FREE CONDITIONS WILL OCCUR WED-MON...WITH
OCCASIONAL MAINLY HIGH-LEVEL CLOUDS TO MOVE ACROSS THE AREA. A
FAIRLY TIGHT MID-LEVEL GRADIENT WILL CONTRIBUTE TO SEASONALLY GUSTY
WINDS...ESPECIALLY DURING THE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING HOURS. THE
STRONGEST WINDS VIA VARIOUS 31/00Z NWP GUIDANCE SHOULD OCCUR WED AND
THUR. CURIOUS TO NOTE THAT THE 31/00Z NAM/GFS MOS GUIDANCE WIND
SPEEDS ARE GENERALLY STRONGER WED VERSUS THUR...ALTHOUGH A PRONOUNCED
SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS PROGGED TO MOVE NORTH OF THE AREA THUR.

A VERY GRADUAL COOLING TREND IS FORECAST TO OCCUR TODAY-FRI FOLLOWED
BY MODEST WARMING SAT. SLIGHTLY COOLER HIGH TEMPS SHOULD PREVAIL BY
NEXT MON. HOWEVER...DAYTIME TEMPS DURING MUCH OF THIS FORECAST
PERIOD WILL GENERALLY AVERAGE ABOUT 5-10 DEGS ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...YOUTUBE...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/TUCSON








000
FXUS65 KTWC 311637
AFDTWC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ
936 AM MST TUE MAR 31 2015

.SYNOPSIS...A FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAY OCCUR MAINLY NEAR
THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER SOUTHEAST OF TUCSON AND ACROSS THE WHITE
MOUNTAINS THIS AFTERNOON. DRY CONDITIONS WITH CONTINUED ABOVE NORMAL
DAYTIME TEMPERATURES WILL THEN PREVAIL WEDNESDAY INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK. EXPECT GUSTY WINDS AT TIMES INTO THE WEEKEND...AND THE
STRONGEST WINDS SHOULD OCCUR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...UPPER LOW MOVING SOUTH OF THE AREA WITH A FEW SHOWERS
STILL POSSIBLE OVER THE MOUNTAINS NEAR THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER
TODAY. OTHERWISE...DRY CONDITIONS WITH SOME GUSTY WINDS THIS
AFTERNOON. CURRENT FORECAST LOOKED ON TRACK...SO NO UPDATES
NECESSARY THIS MORNING. PLEASE REFER TO THE ADDITIONAL SECTIONS FOR
MORE DETAILS.

&&

.AVIATION...VALID THRU 01/18Z.
THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF -TSRA/-SHRA THIS AFTERNOON MAINLY NEAR
THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER SOUTH-TO-SOUTHEAST OF KTUS...AND ACROSS THE
WHITE MOUNTAINS NE OF KSAD. BRIEF WIND GUSTS TO AROUND 40 KTS MAY
ACCOMPANY ANY -TSRA. KOLS AND KDUG WILL BE MOST PRONE TO THESE
GUSTS...BUT THE EXPECTED OCCURRENCE IS TOO LOW TO INCLUDE IN THE
TAFS. OTHERWISE...SCT-OVC CLOUDS AT 10-15K FT AGL TODAY MAINLY EAST
OF KTUS WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES WEST OF KTUS...THEN CLEARING SKIES
THIS EVENING. EXPECT A FEW-SCT CIRRUS CLOUDS LATE TONIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY MORNING. SURFACE WIND THIS AFTERNOON WILL BE WLY/NWLY
12-18 KTS WITH GUSTS OF 25-30 KTS. OTHERWISE...SURFACE WIND WILL BE
LESS THAN 10 KTS. AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR TAF AMENDMENTS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON MAINLY NEAR THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER
ADJACENT COCHISE COUNTY AND SANTA CRUZ COUNTY...AND ACROSS THE WHITE
MOUNTAINS. GIVEN THE VERY DRY SURFACE REGIME...BRIEF GUSTY AND
ERRATIC WINDS MAY OCCUR NEAR THUNDERSTORMS. DRY CONDITIONS WITH
CONTINUED ABOVE NORMAL DAYTIME TEMPERATURES WILL THEN PREVAIL
WEDNESDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

GUSTY WINDS WILL OCCUR MAINLY DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING
HOURS INTO THIS WEEKEND. THE STRONGEST WINDS SHOULD PREVAIL
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. THE BEST OCCURRENCE FOR WIDESPREAD RED
FLAG CRITERIA IS MAINLY NEAR THE NEW MEXICO BORDER LATE THURSDAY
AFTERNOON AND EARLY THURSDAY EVENING. FIELD CREWS ARE ENCOURAGED TO
MONITOR SUBSEQUENT FORECASTS FOR THE POTENTIAL ISSUANCE OF A FIRE
WEATHER WATCH OR RED FLAG WARNING.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...WEAK UPPER LOW JUST SOUTH OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA
SPUR EARLY THIS MORNING WILL MOVE EWD INTO WRN CHIHUAHUA THIS
AFTERNOON. THERE IS ENOUGH MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY TO MAINTAIN A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS/TSTMS THIS AFTERNOON MAINLY NEAR THE
INTERNATIONAL BORDER ADJACENT SANTA CRUZ/COCHISE COUNTIES. ANOTHER
IMPULSE PRESENTLY OVER NWRN AZ WILL MOVE EWD TO NEAR THE FOUR
CORNERS REGION THIS AFTERNOON. THIS SYSTEM WILL ALSO PROVIDE A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS/TSTMS ACROSS THE WHITE MOUNTAINS THIS
AFTERNOON. ANY MEASURABLE RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL BE LIGHT...WITH ONLY
A FEW HUNDREDTHS OF AN INCH EXPECTED. DRY CONDITIONS WILL THEN OCCUR
AREA-WIDE THIS EVENING FOLLOWED BY CLEAR SKIES OR MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES
LATE TONIGHT.

ZONAL FLOW ALOFT WILL PREVAIL WED-THUR...THEN GENERALLY SWLY FLOW
ALOFT WILL OCCUR FRI-MON IN RESPONSE TO A LOW PRESSURE TROUGH NEAR
THE WEST COAST. PRECIP-FREE CONDITIONS WILL OCCUR WED-MON...WITH
OCCASIONAL MAINLY HIGH-LEVEL CLOUDS TO MOVE ACROSS THE AREA. A
FAIRLY TIGHT MID-LEVEL GRADIENT WILL CONTRIBUTE TO SEASONALLY GUSTY
WINDS...ESPECIALLY DURING THE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING HOURS. THE
STRONGEST WINDS VIA VARIOUS 31/00Z NWP GUIDANCE SHOULD OCCUR WED AND
THUR. CURIOUS TO NOTE THAT THE 31/00Z NAM/GFS MOS GUIDANCE WIND
SPEEDS ARE GENERALLY STRONGER WED VERSUS THUR...ALTHOUGH A PRONOUNCED
SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS PROGGED TO MOVE NORTH OF THE AREA THUR.

A VERY GRADUAL COOLING TREND IS FORECAST TO OCCUR TODAY-FRI FOLLOWED
BY MODEST WARMING SAT. SLIGHTLY COOLER HIGH TEMPS SHOULD PREVAIL BY
NEXT MON. HOWEVER...DAYTIME TEMPS DURING MUCH OF THIS FORECAST
PERIOD WILL GENERALLY AVERAGE ABOUT 5-10 DEGS ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...YOUTUBE...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/TUCSON









000
FXUS65 KTWC 311637
AFDTWC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ
936 AM MST TUE MAR 31 2015

.SYNOPSIS...A FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAY OCCUR MAINLY NEAR
THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER SOUTHEAST OF TUCSON AND ACROSS THE WHITE
MOUNTAINS THIS AFTERNOON. DRY CONDITIONS WITH CONTINUED ABOVE NORMAL
DAYTIME TEMPERATURES WILL THEN PREVAIL WEDNESDAY INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK. EXPECT GUSTY WINDS AT TIMES INTO THE WEEKEND...AND THE
STRONGEST WINDS SHOULD OCCUR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...UPPER LOW MOVING SOUTH OF THE AREA WITH A FEW SHOWERS
STILL POSSIBLE OVER THE MOUNTAINS NEAR THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER
TODAY. OTHERWISE...DRY CONDITIONS WITH SOME GUSTY WINDS THIS
AFTERNOON. CURRENT FORECAST LOOKED ON TRACK...SO NO UPDATES
NECESSARY THIS MORNING. PLEASE REFER TO THE ADDITIONAL SECTIONS FOR
MORE DETAILS.

&&

.AVIATION...VALID THRU 01/18Z.
THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF -TSRA/-SHRA THIS AFTERNOON MAINLY NEAR
THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER SOUTH-TO-SOUTHEAST OF KTUS...AND ACROSS THE
WHITE MOUNTAINS NE OF KSAD. BRIEF WIND GUSTS TO AROUND 40 KTS MAY
ACCOMPANY ANY -TSRA. KOLS AND KDUG WILL BE MOST PRONE TO THESE
GUSTS...BUT THE EXPECTED OCCURRENCE IS TOO LOW TO INCLUDE IN THE
TAFS. OTHERWISE...SCT-OVC CLOUDS AT 10-15K FT AGL TODAY MAINLY EAST
OF KTUS WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES WEST OF KTUS...THEN CLEARING SKIES
THIS EVENING. EXPECT A FEW-SCT CIRRUS CLOUDS LATE TONIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY MORNING. SURFACE WIND THIS AFTERNOON WILL BE WLY/NWLY
12-18 KTS WITH GUSTS OF 25-30 KTS. OTHERWISE...SURFACE WIND WILL BE
LESS THAN 10 KTS. AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR TAF AMENDMENTS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON MAINLY NEAR THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER
ADJACENT COCHISE COUNTY AND SANTA CRUZ COUNTY...AND ACROSS THE WHITE
MOUNTAINS. GIVEN THE VERY DRY SURFACE REGIME...BRIEF GUSTY AND
ERRATIC WINDS MAY OCCUR NEAR THUNDERSTORMS. DRY CONDITIONS WITH
CONTINUED ABOVE NORMAL DAYTIME TEMPERATURES WILL THEN PREVAIL
WEDNESDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

GUSTY WINDS WILL OCCUR MAINLY DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING
HOURS INTO THIS WEEKEND. THE STRONGEST WINDS SHOULD PREVAIL
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. THE BEST OCCURRENCE FOR WIDESPREAD RED
FLAG CRITERIA IS MAINLY NEAR THE NEW MEXICO BORDER LATE THURSDAY
AFTERNOON AND EARLY THURSDAY EVENING. FIELD CREWS ARE ENCOURAGED TO
MONITOR SUBSEQUENT FORECASTS FOR THE POTENTIAL ISSUANCE OF A FIRE
WEATHER WATCH OR RED FLAG WARNING.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...WEAK UPPER LOW JUST SOUTH OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA
SPUR EARLY THIS MORNING WILL MOVE EWD INTO WRN CHIHUAHUA THIS
AFTERNOON. THERE IS ENOUGH MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY TO MAINTAIN A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS/TSTMS THIS AFTERNOON MAINLY NEAR THE
INTERNATIONAL BORDER ADJACENT SANTA CRUZ/COCHISE COUNTIES. ANOTHER
IMPULSE PRESENTLY OVER NWRN AZ WILL MOVE EWD TO NEAR THE FOUR
CORNERS REGION THIS AFTERNOON. THIS SYSTEM WILL ALSO PROVIDE A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS/TSTMS ACROSS THE WHITE MOUNTAINS THIS
AFTERNOON. ANY MEASURABLE RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL BE LIGHT...WITH ONLY
A FEW HUNDREDTHS OF AN INCH EXPECTED. DRY CONDITIONS WILL THEN OCCUR
AREA-WIDE THIS EVENING FOLLOWED BY CLEAR SKIES OR MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES
LATE TONIGHT.

ZONAL FLOW ALOFT WILL PREVAIL WED-THUR...THEN GENERALLY SWLY FLOW
ALOFT WILL OCCUR FRI-MON IN RESPONSE TO A LOW PRESSURE TROUGH NEAR
THE WEST COAST. PRECIP-FREE CONDITIONS WILL OCCUR WED-MON...WITH
OCCASIONAL MAINLY HIGH-LEVEL CLOUDS TO MOVE ACROSS THE AREA. A
FAIRLY TIGHT MID-LEVEL GRADIENT WILL CONTRIBUTE TO SEASONALLY GUSTY
WINDS...ESPECIALLY DURING THE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING HOURS. THE
STRONGEST WINDS VIA VARIOUS 31/00Z NWP GUIDANCE SHOULD OCCUR WED AND
THUR. CURIOUS TO NOTE THAT THE 31/00Z NAM/GFS MOS GUIDANCE WIND
SPEEDS ARE GENERALLY STRONGER WED VERSUS THUR...ALTHOUGH A PRONOUNCED
SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS PROGGED TO MOVE NORTH OF THE AREA THUR.

A VERY GRADUAL COOLING TREND IS FORECAST TO OCCUR TODAY-FRI FOLLOWED
BY MODEST WARMING SAT. SLIGHTLY COOLER HIGH TEMPS SHOULD PREVAIL BY
NEXT MON. HOWEVER...DAYTIME TEMPS DURING MUCH OF THIS FORECAST
PERIOD WILL GENERALLY AVERAGE ABOUT 5-10 DEGS ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...YOUTUBE...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/TUCSON









000
FXUS65 KTWC 311637
AFDTWC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ
936 AM MST TUE MAR 31 2015

.SYNOPSIS...A FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAY OCCUR MAINLY NEAR
THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER SOUTHEAST OF TUCSON AND ACROSS THE WHITE
MOUNTAINS THIS AFTERNOON. DRY CONDITIONS WITH CONTINUED ABOVE NORMAL
DAYTIME TEMPERATURES WILL THEN PREVAIL WEDNESDAY INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK. EXPECT GUSTY WINDS AT TIMES INTO THE WEEKEND...AND THE
STRONGEST WINDS SHOULD OCCUR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...UPPER LOW MOVING SOUTH OF THE AREA WITH A FEW SHOWERS
STILL POSSIBLE OVER THE MOUNTAINS NEAR THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER
TODAY. OTHERWISE...DRY CONDITIONS WITH SOME GUSTY WINDS THIS
AFTERNOON. CURRENT FORECAST LOOKED ON TRACK...SO NO UPDATES
NECESSARY THIS MORNING. PLEASE REFER TO THE ADDITIONAL SECTIONS FOR
MORE DETAILS.

&&

.AVIATION...VALID THRU 01/18Z.
THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF -TSRA/-SHRA THIS AFTERNOON MAINLY NEAR
THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER SOUTH-TO-SOUTHEAST OF KTUS...AND ACROSS THE
WHITE MOUNTAINS NE OF KSAD. BRIEF WIND GUSTS TO AROUND 40 KTS MAY
ACCOMPANY ANY -TSRA. KOLS AND KDUG WILL BE MOST PRONE TO THESE
GUSTS...BUT THE EXPECTED OCCURRENCE IS TOO LOW TO INCLUDE IN THE
TAFS. OTHERWISE...SCT-OVC CLOUDS AT 10-15K FT AGL TODAY MAINLY EAST
OF KTUS WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES WEST OF KTUS...THEN CLEARING SKIES
THIS EVENING. EXPECT A FEW-SCT CIRRUS CLOUDS LATE TONIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY MORNING. SURFACE WIND THIS AFTERNOON WILL BE WLY/NWLY
12-18 KTS WITH GUSTS OF 25-30 KTS. OTHERWISE...SURFACE WIND WILL BE
LESS THAN 10 KTS. AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR TAF AMENDMENTS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON MAINLY NEAR THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER
ADJACENT COCHISE COUNTY AND SANTA CRUZ COUNTY...AND ACROSS THE WHITE
MOUNTAINS. GIVEN THE VERY DRY SURFACE REGIME...BRIEF GUSTY AND
ERRATIC WINDS MAY OCCUR NEAR THUNDERSTORMS. DRY CONDITIONS WITH
CONTINUED ABOVE NORMAL DAYTIME TEMPERATURES WILL THEN PREVAIL
WEDNESDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

GUSTY WINDS WILL OCCUR MAINLY DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING
HOURS INTO THIS WEEKEND. THE STRONGEST WINDS SHOULD PREVAIL
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. THE BEST OCCURRENCE FOR WIDESPREAD RED
FLAG CRITERIA IS MAINLY NEAR THE NEW MEXICO BORDER LATE THURSDAY
AFTERNOON AND EARLY THURSDAY EVENING. FIELD CREWS ARE ENCOURAGED TO
MONITOR SUBSEQUENT FORECASTS FOR THE POTENTIAL ISSUANCE OF A FIRE
WEATHER WATCH OR RED FLAG WARNING.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...WEAK UPPER LOW JUST SOUTH OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA
SPUR EARLY THIS MORNING WILL MOVE EWD INTO WRN CHIHUAHUA THIS
AFTERNOON. THERE IS ENOUGH MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY TO MAINTAIN A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS/TSTMS THIS AFTERNOON MAINLY NEAR THE
INTERNATIONAL BORDER ADJACENT SANTA CRUZ/COCHISE COUNTIES. ANOTHER
IMPULSE PRESENTLY OVER NWRN AZ WILL MOVE EWD TO NEAR THE FOUR
CORNERS REGION THIS AFTERNOON. THIS SYSTEM WILL ALSO PROVIDE A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS/TSTMS ACROSS THE WHITE MOUNTAINS THIS
AFTERNOON. ANY MEASURABLE RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL BE LIGHT...WITH ONLY
A FEW HUNDREDTHS OF AN INCH EXPECTED. DRY CONDITIONS WILL THEN OCCUR
AREA-WIDE THIS EVENING FOLLOWED BY CLEAR SKIES OR MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES
LATE TONIGHT.

ZONAL FLOW ALOFT WILL PREVAIL WED-THUR...THEN GENERALLY SWLY FLOW
ALOFT WILL OCCUR FRI-MON IN RESPONSE TO A LOW PRESSURE TROUGH NEAR
THE WEST COAST. PRECIP-FREE CONDITIONS WILL OCCUR WED-MON...WITH
OCCASIONAL MAINLY HIGH-LEVEL CLOUDS TO MOVE ACROSS THE AREA. A
FAIRLY TIGHT MID-LEVEL GRADIENT WILL CONTRIBUTE TO SEASONALLY GUSTY
WINDS...ESPECIALLY DURING THE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING HOURS. THE
STRONGEST WINDS VIA VARIOUS 31/00Z NWP GUIDANCE SHOULD OCCUR WED AND
THUR. CURIOUS TO NOTE THAT THE 31/00Z NAM/GFS MOS GUIDANCE WIND
SPEEDS ARE GENERALLY STRONGER WED VERSUS THUR...ALTHOUGH A PRONOUNCED
SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS PROGGED TO MOVE NORTH OF THE AREA THUR.

A VERY GRADUAL COOLING TREND IS FORECAST TO OCCUR TODAY-FRI FOLLOWED
BY MODEST WARMING SAT. SLIGHTLY COOLER HIGH TEMPS SHOULD PREVAIL BY
NEXT MON. HOWEVER...DAYTIME TEMPS DURING MUCH OF THIS FORECAST
PERIOD WILL GENERALLY AVERAGE ABOUT 5-10 DEGS ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...YOUTUBE...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/TUCSON








000
FXUS65 KPSR 311607
AFDPSR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PHOENIX AZ
907 AM MST TUE MAR 31 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
NEAR RECORD TEMPERATURES ARE ONCE AGAIN POSSIBLE ACROSS PORTIONS OF
THE LOWER DESERTS THIS AFTERNOON. A DRY WEATHER SYSTEM WILL MOVE
INTO THE REGION FROM THE GREAT BASIN LATE WEDNESDAY THROUGH
FRIDAY...USHERING IN COOLER TEMPERATURES AND INCREASING WINDS. DRY
CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH CONTINUED ABOVE
NORMAL TEMPERATURES WITH DAYTIME HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S TO LOW 90S.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
MID MORNING WATER VAPOR IMAGERY REVEALS A COMPACT UPPER LEVEL LOW
OVER CENTRAL SONORA...WITH A FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAKING
THEIR WAY NORTHWARD INTO NEW MEXICO. ACROSS CENTRAL ARIZONA AND
SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA...RIDGING WAS ALREADY STARTING TO MAKE ITS WAY
INTO THE REGION AND SKIES WERE CLEAR ACROSS THE LOWER DESERTS.
DESPITE A SLIGHTLY COOLER MORNING ACROSS THE REGION...MID MORNING
TEMPERATURES WERE ALREADY IN THE MID 70S AS OF 16Z.

FORECAST FOR THE REST OF THE DAY IS RELATIVELY STRAIGHTFORWARD...NEAR
RECORD TEMPERATURES ALONG WITH MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES. RECORDS ARE
UNLIKELY TO BE BROKEN AT YUMA /RECORD IS 100...SEE CLIMATE SECTION
BELOW/...BUT PHOENIX COULD TAKE A RUN AT TYING/BREAKING THE PREVIOUS
RECORD OF 94. BIAS-CORRECTED CONSENSUS GUIDANCE HAS BEEN POINTING
SQUARELY AT 94-95 THIS AFTERNOON...THUS CONFIDENCE IN THE INHERITED
FORECAST OF 94 IS VERY HIGH.

&&

.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...

ADDITIONAL WEAK SHORTWAVE TRACKING ALONG THE NORTHERN AZ
BORDER WILL MOVE THROUGH WITH LITTLE IMPACT TO OUR FORECAST
AREA...SAVE FOR SOME PERIODS OF PASSING HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS POSSIBLY
SETTING UP ANOTHER GORGEOUS SOUTHWEST SUNSET LATER TODAY.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE A FEW DEGREES COOLER THAN THE PAST FEW
AFTERNOONS...BUT STILL FLIRT WITH RECORDS AT LEAST IN PHOENIX TODAY.
RECORD HIGH FOR THIS DAY IS 94F (2012) AND THAT IS WHAT WE ARE
CURRENTLY FORECASTING. YUMA-EL CENTRO-BLYTHE CAN LOOK FOR MID 90S
AGAIN AS WELL...WHILE THE HIGHER TERRAIN LOCALES OF GLOBE AND JTNP
CAN LOOK FOR DAYTIME HIGHS IN THE 80S.

OPERATIONAL AND ENSEMBLE HEIGHT FORECASTS ARE IN THE GOOD AGREEMENT
THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEKEND...ADVERTISING MOSTLY ZONAL FLOW
ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST STATES. PASSING GREAT BASIN SHORTWAVE FROM THE
NORTHERN STORM TRACK WILL CLIP NORTHERN AZ THURSDAY BRINGING IN SOME
DRIER AIR AND MILD CAA INTO THE REGION...PARTICULARLY ALONG AND
THROUGH THE CO RIVER VALLEY. IN ADDITION...UL JET STREAK MOVING OFF
THE EASTERN PACIFIC AS PART OF THE SOUTHERN STORM TRACK WILL HELP
ENHANCE WINDS ALONG THE BASE OF THE TROUGH...RESULTING IN BREEZY TO
LOCALLY WINDY CONDITIONS THURSDAY. MAIN IMPACTS FROM THIS SYSTEM FOR
THURSDAY WILL BE WINDY CONDITIONS...COOLER TEMPERATURES AND CRASHING
DEWPOINT READINGS. THE COMBINATION OF STRONG WINDS AND LOW RHS (WITH
MANY OF THE WESTERN FIRE DISTRICTS IN OUR FORECAST AREA IN THE SINGLE
DIGITS) MAY LEAD TO CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS DURING THE DAY
THURSDAY. CURRENT WIND SPEED FORECASTS DO NOT SUPPORT WIDESPREAD
AREAL CONCERNS...BUT CONDITIONS MAY BE REALIZED IN LOCALIZED POCKETS.
WILL HIGHLIGHT THE FIRE WX CONCERNS WITH A HEADLINE IN THE FIRE
WEATHER DISCUSSION BELOW.

AFTER THE LATE WEEK SHORTWAVE CLEARS THE REGION...BROAD TROUGH
HEIGHTS/SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW REMAIN OVER MUCH OF THE WESTERN CONUS
THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. OPERATIONAL GFS/ECMWF SOLNS ADVERTISE
A LARGE SHORTWAVE MOVING OFF THE PACIFIC LATE SUNDAY/EARLY
MONDAY...HOWEVER THEIR ENSEMBLE (GEFS/NAEFS/ECENS) COUNTERPARTS DO
LITTLE TO INSPIRE CONFIDENCE IN THE EVOLUTION OF THAT SYSTEM.
BROADBRUSH FORECAST WILL HOLD THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK OF CONTINUED DRY CONDITIONS AND SLIGHTLY ABOVE-CLIMO
TEMPERATURES.

&&

.CLIMATE...

RECORD HIGHS THIS WEEK...

CITY        MARCH 31
--------    --------
PHOENIX     94 IN 2012/2004/1989
YUMA        100 IN 2011

&&

.AVIATION...
SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA INCLUDING KPHX...KIWA...AND KSDL...AND
SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA AND SOUTHWEST ARIZONA INCLUDING KIPL AND KBLH...

WEAK PACIFIC DISTURBANCE IS FORECAST TO MOVE ACROSS NORTHERN AZ LATE
TODAY RESULTING IN GUSTY AFTERNOON/EVENING WEST WINDS. THROUGH 17Z
TUE...MOSTLY CLEAR. LIGHT WIND UNDER 8 KNOTS. FROM 17Z TUE TO 02Z
WED...INCREASING WEST WIND 12 TO 15 KNOTS WITH GUSTS TO 22 KNOTS.
OCCASIONAL HIGH CLOUDS.

AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDED TAFS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

...GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS AND VERY LOW HUMIDITY AREA-WIDE THURSDAY
AFTERNOON FOR MARGINAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS...

THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY...

A SERIES OF WEATHER DISTURBANCES WILL MOVE ACROSS THE WESTERN STATES
MAINLY NORTH OF AZ FOR ENHANCED AFTERNOON BREEZES EACH DAY. HOWEVER
ONE STRONGER DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE FARTHER SOUTH ACROSS NORTHERN AZ
THURSDAY GENERATING GUSTY NORTH TO NORTHWEST WINDS 15 TO 25 MPH WITH
GUSTS TO 30 MPH. A SIGNIFICANTLY DRIER AIRMASS FROM THE NORTH WILL
ALSO SWEEP ACROSS THE REGION. MARGINAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED THURSDAY. OTHERWISE...BREEZY CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST EACH
AFTERNOON WITH MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITIES IN THE 5 TO 10 PERCENT
RANGE. OVERNIGHT RECOVERY SHOULD BE FAIR...EXCEPT FOR THE
BREEZY/WINDY PERIOD THURSDAY NIGHT. AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES WILL
REMAIN 8 TO 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AZ...NONE.
CA...NONE.
&&

$$

VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/PHOENIX

DISCUSSION...LEINS/NOLTE
CLIMATE...NOLTE/MO
AVIATION...VASQUEZ
FIRE WEATHER...VASQUEZ



000
FXUS65 KPSR 311607
AFDPSR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PHOENIX AZ
907 AM MST TUE MAR 31 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
NEAR RECORD TEMPERATURES ARE ONCE AGAIN POSSIBLE ACROSS PORTIONS OF
THE LOWER DESERTS THIS AFTERNOON. A DRY WEATHER SYSTEM WILL MOVE
INTO THE REGION FROM THE GREAT BASIN LATE WEDNESDAY THROUGH
FRIDAY...USHERING IN COOLER TEMPERATURES AND INCREASING WINDS. DRY
CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH CONTINUED ABOVE
NORMAL TEMPERATURES WITH DAYTIME HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S TO LOW 90S.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
MID MORNING WATER VAPOR IMAGERY REVEALS A COMPACT UPPER LEVEL LOW
OVER CENTRAL SONORA...WITH A FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAKING
THEIR WAY NORTHWARD INTO NEW MEXICO. ACROSS CENTRAL ARIZONA AND
SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA...RIDGING WAS ALREADY STARTING TO MAKE ITS WAY
INTO THE REGION AND SKIES WERE CLEAR ACROSS THE LOWER DESERTS.
DESPITE A SLIGHTLY COOLER MORNING ACROSS THE REGION...MID MORNING
TEMPERATURES WERE ALREADY IN THE MID 70S AS OF 16Z.

FORECAST FOR THE REST OF THE DAY IS RELATIVELY STRAIGHTFORWARD...NEAR
RECORD TEMPERATURES ALONG WITH MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES. RECORDS ARE
UNLIKELY TO BE BROKEN AT YUMA /RECORD IS 100...SEE CLIMATE SECTION
BELOW/...BUT PHOENIX COULD TAKE A RUN AT TYING/BREAKING THE PREVIOUS
RECORD OF 94. BIAS-CORRECTED CONSENSUS GUIDANCE HAS BEEN POINTING
SQUARELY AT 94-95 THIS AFTERNOON...THUS CONFIDENCE IN THE INHERITED
FORECAST OF 94 IS VERY HIGH.

&&

.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...

ADDITIONAL WEAK SHORTWAVE TRACKING ALONG THE NORTHERN AZ
BORDER WILL MOVE THROUGH WITH LITTLE IMPACT TO OUR FORECAST
AREA...SAVE FOR SOME PERIODS OF PASSING HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS POSSIBLY
SETTING UP ANOTHER GORGEOUS SOUTHWEST SUNSET LATER TODAY.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE A FEW DEGREES COOLER THAN THE PAST FEW
AFTERNOONS...BUT STILL FLIRT WITH RECORDS AT LEAST IN PHOENIX TODAY.
RECORD HIGH FOR THIS DAY IS 94F (2012) AND THAT IS WHAT WE ARE
CURRENTLY FORECASTING. YUMA-EL CENTRO-BLYTHE CAN LOOK FOR MID 90S
AGAIN AS WELL...WHILE THE HIGHER TERRAIN LOCALES OF GLOBE AND JTNP
CAN LOOK FOR DAYTIME HIGHS IN THE 80S.

OPERATIONAL AND ENSEMBLE HEIGHT FORECASTS ARE IN THE GOOD AGREEMENT
THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEKEND...ADVERTISING MOSTLY ZONAL FLOW
ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST STATES. PASSING GREAT BASIN SHORTWAVE FROM THE
NORTHERN STORM TRACK WILL CLIP NORTHERN AZ THURSDAY BRINGING IN SOME
DRIER AIR AND MILD CAA INTO THE REGION...PARTICULARLY ALONG AND
THROUGH THE CO RIVER VALLEY. IN ADDITION...UL JET STREAK MOVING OFF
THE EASTERN PACIFIC AS PART OF THE SOUTHERN STORM TRACK WILL HELP
ENHANCE WINDS ALONG THE BASE OF THE TROUGH...RESULTING IN BREEZY TO
LOCALLY WINDY CONDITIONS THURSDAY. MAIN IMPACTS FROM THIS SYSTEM FOR
THURSDAY WILL BE WINDY CONDITIONS...COOLER TEMPERATURES AND CRASHING
DEWPOINT READINGS. THE COMBINATION OF STRONG WINDS AND LOW RHS (WITH
MANY OF THE WESTERN FIRE DISTRICTS IN OUR FORECAST AREA IN THE SINGLE
DIGITS) MAY LEAD TO CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS DURING THE DAY
THURSDAY. CURRENT WIND SPEED FORECASTS DO NOT SUPPORT WIDESPREAD
AREAL CONCERNS...BUT CONDITIONS MAY BE REALIZED IN LOCALIZED POCKETS.
WILL HIGHLIGHT THE FIRE WX CONCERNS WITH A HEADLINE IN THE FIRE
WEATHER DISCUSSION BELOW.

AFTER THE LATE WEEK SHORTWAVE CLEARS THE REGION...BROAD TROUGH
HEIGHTS/SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW REMAIN OVER MUCH OF THE WESTERN CONUS
THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. OPERATIONAL GFS/ECMWF SOLNS ADVERTISE
A LARGE SHORTWAVE MOVING OFF THE PACIFIC LATE SUNDAY/EARLY
MONDAY...HOWEVER THEIR ENSEMBLE (GEFS/NAEFS/ECENS) COUNTERPARTS DO
LITTLE TO INSPIRE CONFIDENCE IN THE EVOLUTION OF THAT SYSTEM.
BROADBRUSH FORECAST WILL HOLD THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK OF CONTINUED DRY CONDITIONS AND SLIGHTLY ABOVE-CLIMO
TEMPERATURES.

&&

.CLIMATE...

RECORD HIGHS THIS WEEK...

CITY        MARCH 31
--------    --------
PHOENIX     94 IN 2012/2004/1989
YUMA        100 IN 2011

&&

.AVIATION...
SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA INCLUDING KPHX...KIWA...AND KSDL...AND
SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA AND SOUTHWEST ARIZONA INCLUDING KIPL AND KBLH...

WEAK PACIFIC DISTURBANCE IS FORECAST TO MOVE ACROSS NORTHERN AZ LATE
TODAY RESULTING IN GUSTY AFTERNOON/EVENING WEST WINDS. THROUGH 17Z
TUE...MOSTLY CLEAR. LIGHT WIND UNDER 8 KNOTS. FROM 17Z TUE TO 02Z
WED...INCREASING WEST WIND 12 TO 15 KNOTS WITH GUSTS TO 22 KNOTS.
OCCASIONAL HIGH CLOUDS.

AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDED TAFS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

...GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS AND VERY LOW HUMIDITY AREA-WIDE THURSDAY
AFTERNOON FOR MARGINAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS...

THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY...

A SERIES OF WEATHER DISTURBANCES WILL MOVE ACROSS THE WESTERN STATES
MAINLY NORTH OF AZ FOR ENHANCED AFTERNOON BREEZES EACH DAY. HOWEVER
ONE STRONGER DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE FARTHER SOUTH ACROSS NORTHERN AZ
THURSDAY GENERATING GUSTY NORTH TO NORTHWEST WINDS 15 TO 25 MPH WITH
GUSTS TO 30 MPH. A SIGNIFICANTLY DRIER AIRMASS FROM THE NORTH WILL
ALSO SWEEP ACROSS THE REGION. MARGINAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED THURSDAY. OTHERWISE...BREEZY CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST EACH
AFTERNOON WITH MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITIES IN THE 5 TO 10 PERCENT
RANGE. OVERNIGHT RECOVERY SHOULD BE FAIR...EXCEPT FOR THE
BREEZY/WINDY PERIOD THURSDAY NIGHT. AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES WILL
REMAIN 8 TO 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AZ...NONE.
CA...NONE.
&&

$$

VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/PHOENIX

DISCUSSION...LEINS/NOLTE
CLIMATE...NOLTE/MO
AVIATION...VASQUEZ
FIRE WEATHER...VASQUEZ




000
FXUS65 KFGZ 311555
AFDFGZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ
855 AM MST TUE MAR 31 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE AGAIN TODAY...WITH A
COOLING TREND AS THE WEEK EVOLVES. THE MAIN IMPACT DURING THE
SEVEN-DAY FORECAST WILL BE THE RETURN OF GUSTY SPRINGTIME
WINDS.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
NORTHERN ARIZONA WILL REMAIN BETWEEN A WEAK SHORTWAVE PASSING
ALONG THE UTAH BORDER TODAY AND LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING
EASTWARD ACROSS NORTHERN MEXICO. THERE WILL BE A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR
A SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS FAR EASTERN ARIZONA
WITH OTHERWISE DRY...BREEZY AND MILD WEATHER. WELL ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE. NO FORECAST UPDATES ARE ANTICIPATED
THIS MORNING.

&&

.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION /401 AM MST/...
A SLIGHT CHANCE OF HIGH-BASED SHOWERS WILL LINGER THIS AFTERNOON
ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS OF EASTERN ARIZONA. OTHERWISE...BREEZIER
SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL TYPIFY MOST AFTERNOONS DURING THE
UPCOMING SEVERAL DAYS...WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR DOWNRIGHT GUSTY
WINDS ON WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY AS A COLD FRONT PUSHES INTO AND
ACROSS THE GREAT BASIN. DAYTIME TEMPS WILL COOL DURING THE COURSE
OF THE WEEK...WITH FRIDAY LIKELY THE COOLEST DAY IN THE WAKE OF
THE COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE. PRECIPITATION IS NOT CURRENTLY
ANTICIPATED ACROSS NORTHERN AZ WITH THIS FRONTAL PASSAGE.

&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 18Z PACKAGE...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO
PERSIST THROUGHOUT THE NEXT TWENTY-FOUR HOURS. THERE IS A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF HIGH BASED -TSRA OVER THE MOUNTAIN ZONES IN NORTHEASTERN
ARIZONA. AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR TAF AMENDMENTS.

&&

.FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC.........MCS/KD
AVIATION.......BOHLIN

FOR NORTHERN ARIZONA WEATHER INFORMATION VISIT
WEATHER.GOV/FLAGSTAFF






000
FXUS65 KFGZ 311555
AFDFGZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ
855 AM MST TUE MAR 31 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE AGAIN TODAY...WITH A
COOLING TREND AS THE WEEK EVOLVES. THE MAIN IMPACT DURING THE
SEVEN-DAY FORECAST WILL BE THE RETURN OF GUSTY SPRINGTIME
WINDS.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
NORTHERN ARIZONA WILL REMAIN BETWEEN A WEAK SHORTWAVE PASSING
ALONG THE UTAH BORDER TODAY AND LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING
EASTWARD ACROSS NORTHERN MEXICO. THERE WILL BE A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR
A SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS FAR EASTERN ARIZONA
WITH OTHERWISE DRY...BREEZY AND MILD WEATHER. WELL ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE. NO FORECAST UPDATES ARE ANTICIPATED
THIS MORNING.

&&

.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION /401 AM MST/...
A SLIGHT CHANCE OF HIGH-BASED SHOWERS WILL LINGER THIS AFTERNOON
ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS OF EASTERN ARIZONA. OTHERWISE...BREEZIER
SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL TYPIFY MOST AFTERNOONS DURING THE
UPCOMING SEVERAL DAYS...WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR DOWNRIGHT GUSTY
WINDS ON WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY AS A COLD FRONT PUSHES INTO AND
ACROSS THE GREAT BASIN. DAYTIME TEMPS WILL COOL DURING THE COURSE
OF THE WEEK...WITH FRIDAY LIKELY THE COOLEST DAY IN THE WAKE OF
THE COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE. PRECIPITATION IS NOT CURRENTLY
ANTICIPATED ACROSS NORTHERN AZ WITH THIS FRONTAL PASSAGE.

&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 18Z PACKAGE...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO
PERSIST THROUGHOUT THE NEXT TWENTY-FOUR HOURS. THERE IS A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF HIGH BASED -TSRA OVER THE MOUNTAIN ZONES IN NORTHEASTERN
ARIZONA. AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR TAF AMENDMENTS.

&&

.FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC.........MCS/KD
AVIATION.......BOHLIN

FOR NORTHERN ARIZONA WEATHER INFORMATION VISIT
WEATHER.GOV/FLAGSTAFF





000
FXUS65 KFGZ 311555
AFDFGZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ
855 AM MST TUE MAR 31 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE AGAIN TODAY...WITH A
COOLING TREND AS THE WEEK EVOLVES. THE MAIN IMPACT DURING THE
SEVEN-DAY FORECAST WILL BE THE RETURN OF GUSTY SPRINGTIME
WINDS.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
NORTHERN ARIZONA WILL REMAIN BETWEEN A WEAK SHORTWAVE PASSING
ALONG THE UTAH BORDER TODAY AND LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING
EASTWARD ACROSS NORTHERN MEXICO. THERE WILL BE A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR
A SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS FAR EASTERN ARIZONA
WITH OTHERWISE DRY...BREEZY AND MILD WEATHER. WELL ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE. NO FORECAST UPDATES ARE ANTICIPATED
THIS MORNING.

&&

.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION /401 AM MST/...
A SLIGHT CHANCE OF HIGH-BASED SHOWERS WILL LINGER THIS AFTERNOON
ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS OF EASTERN ARIZONA. OTHERWISE...BREEZIER
SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL TYPIFY MOST AFTERNOONS DURING THE
UPCOMING SEVERAL DAYS...WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR DOWNRIGHT GUSTY
WINDS ON WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY AS A COLD FRONT PUSHES INTO AND
ACROSS THE GREAT BASIN. DAYTIME TEMPS WILL COOL DURING THE COURSE
OF THE WEEK...WITH FRIDAY LIKELY THE COOLEST DAY IN THE WAKE OF
THE COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE. PRECIPITATION IS NOT CURRENTLY
ANTICIPATED ACROSS NORTHERN AZ WITH THIS FRONTAL PASSAGE.

&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 18Z PACKAGE...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO
PERSIST THROUGHOUT THE NEXT TWENTY-FOUR HOURS. THERE IS A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF HIGH BASED -TSRA OVER THE MOUNTAIN ZONES IN NORTHEASTERN
ARIZONA. AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR TAF AMENDMENTS.

&&

.FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC.........MCS/KD
AVIATION.......BOHLIN

FOR NORTHERN ARIZONA WEATHER INFORMATION VISIT
WEATHER.GOV/FLAGSTAFF






000
FXUS65 KPSR 311208 CCA
AFDPSR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PHOENIX AZ
508 AM MST TUE MAR 31 2015

.UPDATE...AVIATION AND FIRE WEATHER DISCUSSIONS.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
DRY WEAK TROUGHING WILL SLOWLY CONTINUE TO WORK ACROSS THE AREA WITH
PERIODS OF PASSING HIGH CLOUDS. ANOTHER DRY WEATHER SYSTEM WILL MOVE
INTO THE REGION FROM THE GREAT BASIN LATE WEDNESDAY THROUGH
FRIDAY...USHERING IN COOLER TEMPERATURES AND INCREASING WINDS. DRY
CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH CONTINUED ABOVE
NORMAL TEMPERATURES WITH DAYTIME HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S TO LOW 90S.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
MUCH CLEARER SKIES NOTED ON WATER VAPOR/IR IMAGERY THIS EARLY AM
ACROSS SOUTHEAST CA AND SOUTH-CENTRAL AZ. ONLY SOME POCKETS OF CU
STILL OBSERVED OVER EASTERN GILA COUNTY WITH MORE WIDESPREAD CU AND
CIRRUS FIELDS ACROSS SOUTHEAST AZ THIS AM. ANY LINGERING RADAR
RETURNS ON KEMX (TUCSON WX RADAR) ARE SOUTH OF THE BORDER CLOSER TO
THE PVU AND DYNAMICS OF THE CUT-OFF LOW NOW OVER THE BAJA SPUR. EVEN
A FEW STRIKES OF LIGHTNING HAVE BEEN NOTED ALONG THE SONORA/CHIHUAHUA
BORDER FROM MORE ORGANIZED SHOWER/THUNDERSHOWER ACTIVITY EMBEDDED IN
THE HEART OF TROPICAL MOISTURE PLUME AND SATELLITE DERIVED UPPER JET
MAXIMA. THE CUT-OFF WILL CONTINUE A SLOW TRACK EASTWARD OVER NORTHERN
MEXICO THROUGH THE DAY...TRANSLATING ADDITIONAL SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY FURTHER TO THE EAST ACROSS NM/WEST TX BY THE AFTERNOON.

ADDITIONAL WEAK SHORTWAVE TRACKING ALONG THE NORTHERN AZ
BORDER WILL MOVE THROUGH WITH LITTLE IMPACT TO OUR FORECAST
AREA...SAVE FOR SOME PERIODS OF PASSING HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS POSSIBLY
SETTING UP ANOTHER GORGEOUS SOUTHWEST SUNSET LATER TODAY.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE A FEW DEGREES COOLER THAN THE PAST FEW
AFTERNOONS...BUT STILL FLIRT WITH RECORDS AT LEAST IN PHOENIX TODAY.
RECORD HIGH FOR THIS DAY IS 94F (2012) AND THAT IS WHAT WE ARE
CURRENTLY FORECASTING. YUMA-EL CENTRO-BLYTHE CAN LOOK FOR MID 90S
AGAIN AS WELL...WHILE THE HIGHER TERRAIN LOCALES OF GLOBE AND JTNP
CAN LOOK FOR DAYTIME HIGHS IN THE 80S.

OPERATIONAL AND ENSEMBLE HEIGHT FORECASTS ARE IN THE GOOD AGREEMENT
THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEKEND...ADVERTISING MOSTLY ZONAL FLOW
ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST STATES. PASSING GREAT BASIN SHORTWAVE FROM THE
NORTHERN STORM TRACK WILL CLIP NORTHERN AZ THURSDAY BRINGING IN SOME
DRIER AIR AND MILD CAA INTO THE REGION...PARTICULARLY ALONG AND
THROUGH THE CO RIVER VALLEY. IN ADDITION...UL JET STREAK MOVING OFF
THE EASTERN PACIFIC AS PART OF THE SOUTHERN STORM TRACK WILL HELP
ENHANCE WINDS ALONG THE BASE OF THE TROUGH...RESULTING IN BREEZY TO
LOCALLY WINDY CONDITIONS THURSDAY. MAIN IMPACTS FROM THIS SYSTEM FOR
THURSDAY WILL BE WINDY CONDITIONS...COOLER TEMPERATURES AND CRASHING
DEWPOINT READINGS. THE COMBINATION OF STRONG WINDS AND LOW RHS (WITH
MANY OF THE WESTERN FIRE DISTRICTS IN OUR FORECAST AREA IN THE SINGLE
DIGITS) MAY LEAD TO CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS DURING THE DAY
THURSDAY. CURRENT WIND SPEED FORECASTS DO NOT SUPPORT WIDESPREAD
AREAL CONCERNS...BUT CONDITIONS MAY BE REALIZED IN LOCALIZED POCKETS.
WILL HIGHLIGHT THE FIRE WX CONCERNS WITH A HEADLINE IN THE FIRE
WEATHER DISCUSSION BELOW.

AFTER THE LATE WEEK SHORTWAVE CLEARS THE REGION...BROAD TROUGH
HEIGHTS/SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW REMAIN OVER MUCH OF THE WESTERN CONUS
THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. OPERATIONAL GFS/ECMWF SOLNS ADVERTISE
A LARGE SHORTWAVE MOVING OFF THE PACIFIC LATE SUNDAY/EARLY
MONDAY...HOWEVER THEIR ENSEMBLE (GEFS/NAEFS/ECENS) COUNTERPARTS DO
LITTLE TO INSPIRE CONFIDENCE IN THE EVOLUTION OF THAT SYSTEM.
BROADBRUSH FORECAST WILL HOLD THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK OF CONTINUED DRY CONDITIONS AND SLIGHTLY ABOVE-CLIMO
TEMPERATURES.

&&

.CLIMATE...

RECORD HIGHS THIS WEEK...

CITY        MARCH 31
--------    --------
PHOENIX     94 IN 2012/2004/1989
YUMA        100 IN 2011

&&

.AVIATION... SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA INCLUDING KPHX...KIWA...AND
KSDL...AND SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA AND SOUTHWEST ARIZONA INCLUDING KIPL
AND KBLH...

WEAK PACIFIC DISTURBANCE IS FORECAST TO MOVE ACROSS NORTHERN AZ LATE
TODAY RESULTING IN GUSTY AFTERNOON/EVENING WEST WINDS. THROUGH 17Z
TUE...MOSTLY CLEAR. LIGHT WIND UNDER 8 KNOTS. FROM 17Z TUE TO 02Z
WED...INCREASING WEST WIND 12 TO 15 KNOTS WITH GUSTS TO 22 KNOTS.
OCCASIONAL HIGH CLOUDS.

AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDED TAFS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

...GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS AND VERY LOW HUMIDITY AREA-WIDE THURSDAY
AFTERNOON FOR MARGINAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS...

THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY...

A SERIES OF WEATHER DISTURBANCES WILL MOVE ACROSS THE WESTERN STATES
MAINLY NORTH OF AZ FOR ENHANCED AFTERNOON BREEZES EACH DAY. HOWEVER
ONE STRONGER DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE FARTHER SOUTH ACROSS NORTHERN AZ
THURSDAY GENERATING GUSTY NORTH TO NORTHWEST WINDS 15 TO 25 MPH WITH
GUSTS TO 30 MPH. A SIGNIFICANTLY DRIER AIRMASS FROM THE NORTH WILL
ALSO SWEEP ACROSS THE REGION. MARGINAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED THURSDAY. OTHERWISE...BREEZY CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST EACH
AFTERNOON WITH MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITIES IN THE 5 TO 10 PERCENT
RANGE. OVERNIGHT RECOVERY SHOULD BE FAIR...EXCEPT FOR THE
BREEZY/WINDY PERIOD THURSDAY NIGHT. AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES WILL
REMAIN 8 TO 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AZ...NONE.
CA...NONE.
&&

$$

VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/PHOENIX

DISCUSSION...NOLTE
CLIMATE...NOLTE/MO
AVIATION....VASQUEZ
FIRE WEATHER...VASQUEZ



000
FXUS65 KPSR 311208 CCA
AFDPSR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PHOENIX AZ
508 AM MST TUE MAR 31 2015

.UPDATE...AVIATION AND FIRE WEATHER DISCUSSIONS.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
DRY WEAK TROUGHING WILL SLOWLY CONTINUE TO WORK ACROSS THE AREA WITH
PERIODS OF PASSING HIGH CLOUDS. ANOTHER DRY WEATHER SYSTEM WILL MOVE
INTO THE REGION FROM THE GREAT BASIN LATE WEDNESDAY THROUGH
FRIDAY...USHERING IN COOLER TEMPERATURES AND INCREASING WINDS. DRY
CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH CONTINUED ABOVE
NORMAL TEMPERATURES WITH DAYTIME HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S TO LOW 90S.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
MUCH CLEARER SKIES NOTED ON WATER VAPOR/IR IMAGERY THIS EARLY AM
ACROSS SOUTHEAST CA AND SOUTH-CENTRAL AZ. ONLY SOME POCKETS OF CU
STILL OBSERVED OVER EASTERN GILA COUNTY WITH MORE WIDESPREAD CU AND
CIRRUS FIELDS ACROSS SOUTHEAST AZ THIS AM. ANY LINGERING RADAR
RETURNS ON KEMX (TUCSON WX RADAR) ARE SOUTH OF THE BORDER CLOSER TO
THE PVU AND DYNAMICS OF THE CUT-OFF LOW NOW OVER THE BAJA SPUR. EVEN
A FEW STRIKES OF LIGHTNING HAVE BEEN NOTED ALONG THE SONORA/CHIHUAHUA
BORDER FROM MORE ORGANIZED SHOWER/THUNDERSHOWER ACTIVITY EMBEDDED IN
THE HEART OF TROPICAL MOISTURE PLUME AND SATELLITE DERIVED UPPER JET
MAXIMA. THE CUT-OFF WILL CONTINUE A SLOW TRACK EASTWARD OVER NORTHERN
MEXICO THROUGH THE DAY...TRANSLATING ADDITIONAL SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY FURTHER TO THE EAST ACROSS NM/WEST TX BY THE AFTERNOON.

ADDITIONAL WEAK SHORTWAVE TRACKING ALONG THE NORTHERN AZ
BORDER WILL MOVE THROUGH WITH LITTLE IMPACT TO OUR FORECAST
AREA...SAVE FOR SOME PERIODS OF PASSING HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS POSSIBLY
SETTING UP ANOTHER GORGEOUS SOUTHWEST SUNSET LATER TODAY.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE A FEW DEGREES COOLER THAN THE PAST FEW
AFTERNOONS...BUT STILL FLIRT WITH RECORDS AT LEAST IN PHOENIX TODAY.
RECORD HIGH FOR THIS DAY IS 94F (2012) AND THAT IS WHAT WE ARE
CURRENTLY FORECASTING. YUMA-EL CENTRO-BLYTHE CAN LOOK FOR MID 90S
AGAIN AS WELL...WHILE THE HIGHER TERRAIN LOCALES OF GLOBE AND JTNP
CAN LOOK FOR DAYTIME HIGHS IN THE 80S.

OPERATIONAL AND ENSEMBLE HEIGHT FORECASTS ARE IN THE GOOD AGREEMENT
THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEKEND...ADVERTISING MOSTLY ZONAL FLOW
ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST STATES. PASSING GREAT BASIN SHORTWAVE FROM THE
NORTHERN STORM TRACK WILL CLIP NORTHERN AZ THURSDAY BRINGING IN SOME
DRIER AIR AND MILD CAA INTO THE REGION...PARTICULARLY ALONG AND
THROUGH THE CO RIVER VALLEY. IN ADDITION...UL JET STREAK MOVING OFF
THE EASTERN PACIFIC AS PART OF THE SOUTHERN STORM TRACK WILL HELP
ENHANCE WINDS ALONG THE BASE OF THE TROUGH...RESULTING IN BREEZY TO
LOCALLY WINDY CONDITIONS THURSDAY. MAIN IMPACTS FROM THIS SYSTEM FOR
THURSDAY WILL BE WINDY CONDITIONS...COOLER TEMPERATURES AND CRASHING
DEWPOINT READINGS. THE COMBINATION OF STRONG WINDS AND LOW RHS (WITH
MANY OF THE WESTERN FIRE DISTRICTS IN OUR FORECAST AREA IN THE SINGLE
DIGITS) MAY LEAD TO CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS DURING THE DAY
THURSDAY. CURRENT WIND SPEED FORECASTS DO NOT SUPPORT WIDESPREAD
AREAL CONCERNS...BUT CONDITIONS MAY BE REALIZED IN LOCALIZED POCKETS.
WILL HIGHLIGHT THE FIRE WX CONCERNS WITH A HEADLINE IN THE FIRE
WEATHER DISCUSSION BELOW.

AFTER THE LATE WEEK SHORTWAVE CLEARS THE REGION...BROAD TROUGH
HEIGHTS/SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW REMAIN OVER MUCH OF THE WESTERN CONUS
THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. OPERATIONAL GFS/ECMWF SOLNS ADVERTISE
A LARGE SHORTWAVE MOVING OFF THE PACIFIC LATE SUNDAY/EARLY
MONDAY...HOWEVER THEIR ENSEMBLE (GEFS/NAEFS/ECENS) COUNTERPARTS DO
LITTLE TO INSPIRE CONFIDENCE IN THE EVOLUTION OF THAT SYSTEM.
BROADBRUSH FORECAST WILL HOLD THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK OF CONTINUED DRY CONDITIONS AND SLIGHTLY ABOVE-CLIMO
TEMPERATURES.

&&

.CLIMATE...

RECORD HIGHS THIS WEEK...

CITY        MARCH 31
--------    --------
PHOENIX     94 IN 2012/2004/1989
YUMA        100 IN 2011

&&

.AVIATION... SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA INCLUDING KPHX...KIWA...AND
KSDL...AND SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA AND SOUTHWEST ARIZONA INCLUDING KIPL
AND KBLH...

WEAK PACIFIC DISTURBANCE IS FORECAST TO MOVE ACROSS NORTHERN AZ LATE
TODAY RESULTING IN GUSTY AFTERNOON/EVENING WEST WINDS. THROUGH 17Z
TUE...MOSTLY CLEAR. LIGHT WIND UNDER 8 KNOTS. FROM 17Z TUE TO 02Z
WED...INCREASING WEST WIND 12 TO 15 KNOTS WITH GUSTS TO 22 KNOTS.
OCCASIONAL HIGH CLOUDS.

AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDED TAFS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

...GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS AND VERY LOW HUMIDITY AREA-WIDE THURSDAY
AFTERNOON FOR MARGINAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS...

THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY...

A SERIES OF WEATHER DISTURBANCES WILL MOVE ACROSS THE WESTERN STATES
MAINLY NORTH OF AZ FOR ENHANCED AFTERNOON BREEZES EACH DAY. HOWEVER
ONE STRONGER DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE FARTHER SOUTH ACROSS NORTHERN AZ
THURSDAY GENERATING GUSTY NORTH TO NORTHWEST WINDS 15 TO 25 MPH WITH
GUSTS TO 30 MPH. A SIGNIFICANTLY DRIER AIRMASS FROM THE NORTH WILL
ALSO SWEEP ACROSS THE REGION. MARGINAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED THURSDAY. OTHERWISE...BREEZY CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST EACH
AFTERNOON WITH MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITIES IN THE 5 TO 10 PERCENT
RANGE. OVERNIGHT RECOVERY SHOULD BE FAIR...EXCEPT FOR THE
BREEZY/WINDY PERIOD THURSDAY NIGHT. AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES WILL
REMAIN 8 TO 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AZ...NONE.
CA...NONE.
&&

$$

VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/PHOENIX

DISCUSSION...NOLTE
CLIMATE...NOLTE/MO
AVIATION....VASQUEZ
FIRE WEATHER...VASQUEZ




000
FXUS65 KPSR 311208 CCA
AFDPSR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PHOENIX AZ
508 AM MST TUE MAR 31 2015

.UPDATE...AVIATION AND FIRE WEATHER DISCUSSIONS.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
DRY WEAK TROUGHING WILL SLOWLY CONTINUE TO WORK ACROSS THE AREA WITH
PERIODS OF PASSING HIGH CLOUDS. ANOTHER DRY WEATHER SYSTEM WILL MOVE
INTO THE REGION FROM THE GREAT BASIN LATE WEDNESDAY THROUGH
FRIDAY...USHERING IN COOLER TEMPERATURES AND INCREASING WINDS. DRY
CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH CONTINUED ABOVE
NORMAL TEMPERATURES WITH DAYTIME HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S TO LOW 90S.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
MUCH CLEARER SKIES NOTED ON WATER VAPOR/IR IMAGERY THIS EARLY AM
ACROSS SOUTHEAST CA AND SOUTH-CENTRAL AZ. ONLY SOME POCKETS OF CU
STILL OBSERVED OVER EASTERN GILA COUNTY WITH MORE WIDESPREAD CU AND
CIRRUS FIELDS ACROSS SOUTHEAST AZ THIS AM. ANY LINGERING RADAR
RETURNS ON KEMX (TUCSON WX RADAR) ARE SOUTH OF THE BORDER CLOSER TO
THE PVU AND DYNAMICS OF THE CUT-OFF LOW NOW OVER THE BAJA SPUR. EVEN
A FEW STRIKES OF LIGHTNING HAVE BEEN NOTED ALONG THE SONORA/CHIHUAHUA
BORDER FROM MORE ORGANIZED SHOWER/THUNDERSHOWER ACTIVITY EMBEDDED IN
THE HEART OF TROPICAL MOISTURE PLUME AND SATELLITE DERIVED UPPER JET
MAXIMA. THE CUT-OFF WILL CONTINUE A SLOW TRACK EASTWARD OVER NORTHERN
MEXICO THROUGH THE DAY...TRANSLATING ADDITIONAL SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY FURTHER TO THE EAST ACROSS NM/WEST TX BY THE AFTERNOON.

ADDITIONAL WEAK SHORTWAVE TRACKING ALONG THE NORTHERN AZ
BORDER WILL MOVE THROUGH WITH LITTLE IMPACT TO OUR FORECAST
AREA...SAVE FOR SOME PERIODS OF PASSING HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS POSSIBLY
SETTING UP ANOTHER GORGEOUS SOUTHWEST SUNSET LATER TODAY.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE A FEW DEGREES COOLER THAN THE PAST FEW
AFTERNOONS...BUT STILL FLIRT WITH RECORDS AT LEAST IN PHOENIX TODAY.
RECORD HIGH FOR THIS DAY IS 94F (2012) AND THAT IS WHAT WE ARE
CURRENTLY FORECASTING. YUMA-EL CENTRO-BLYTHE CAN LOOK FOR MID 90S
AGAIN AS WELL...WHILE THE HIGHER TERRAIN LOCALES OF GLOBE AND JTNP
CAN LOOK FOR DAYTIME HIGHS IN THE 80S.

OPERATIONAL AND ENSEMBLE HEIGHT FORECASTS ARE IN THE GOOD AGREEMENT
THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEKEND...ADVERTISING MOSTLY ZONAL FLOW
ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST STATES. PASSING GREAT BASIN SHORTWAVE FROM THE
NORTHERN STORM TRACK WILL CLIP NORTHERN AZ THURSDAY BRINGING IN SOME
DRIER AIR AND MILD CAA INTO THE REGION...PARTICULARLY ALONG AND
THROUGH THE CO RIVER VALLEY. IN ADDITION...UL JET STREAK MOVING OFF
THE EASTERN PACIFIC AS PART OF THE SOUTHERN STORM TRACK WILL HELP
ENHANCE WINDS ALONG THE BASE OF THE TROUGH...RESULTING IN BREEZY TO
LOCALLY WINDY CONDITIONS THURSDAY. MAIN IMPACTS FROM THIS SYSTEM FOR
THURSDAY WILL BE WINDY CONDITIONS...COOLER TEMPERATURES AND CRASHING
DEWPOINT READINGS. THE COMBINATION OF STRONG WINDS AND LOW RHS (WITH
MANY OF THE WESTERN FIRE DISTRICTS IN OUR FORECAST AREA IN THE SINGLE
DIGITS) MAY LEAD TO CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS DURING THE DAY
THURSDAY. CURRENT WIND SPEED FORECASTS DO NOT SUPPORT WIDESPREAD
AREAL CONCERNS...BUT CONDITIONS MAY BE REALIZED IN LOCALIZED POCKETS.
WILL HIGHLIGHT THE FIRE WX CONCERNS WITH A HEADLINE IN THE FIRE
WEATHER DISCUSSION BELOW.

AFTER THE LATE WEEK SHORTWAVE CLEARS THE REGION...BROAD TROUGH
HEIGHTS/SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW REMAIN OVER MUCH OF THE WESTERN CONUS
THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. OPERATIONAL GFS/ECMWF SOLNS ADVERTISE
A LARGE SHORTWAVE MOVING OFF THE PACIFIC LATE SUNDAY/EARLY
MONDAY...HOWEVER THEIR ENSEMBLE (GEFS/NAEFS/ECENS) COUNTERPARTS DO
LITTLE TO INSPIRE CONFIDENCE IN THE EVOLUTION OF THAT SYSTEM.
BROADBRUSH FORECAST WILL HOLD THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK OF CONTINUED DRY CONDITIONS AND SLIGHTLY ABOVE-CLIMO
TEMPERATURES.

&&

.CLIMATE...

RECORD HIGHS THIS WEEK...

CITY        MARCH 31
--------    --------
PHOENIX     94 IN 2012/2004/1989
YUMA        100 IN 2011

&&

.AVIATION... SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA INCLUDING KPHX...KIWA...AND
KSDL...AND SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA AND SOUTHWEST ARIZONA INCLUDING KIPL
AND KBLH...

WEAK PACIFIC DISTURBANCE IS FORECAST TO MOVE ACROSS NORTHERN AZ LATE
TODAY RESULTING IN GUSTY AFTERNOON/EVENING WEST WINDS. THROUGH 17Z
TUE...MOSTLY CLEAR. LIGHT WIND UNDER 8 KNOTS. FROM 17Z TUE TO 02Z
WED...INCREASING WEST WIND 12 TO 15 KNOTS WITH GUSTS TO 22 KNOTS.
OCCASIONAL HIGH CLOUDS.

AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDED TAFS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

...GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS AND VERY LOW HUMIDITY AREA-WIDE THURSDAY
AFTERNOON FOR MARGINAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS...

THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY...

A SERIES OF WEATHER DISTURBANCES WILL MOVE ACROSS THE WESTERN STATES
MAINLY NORTH OF AZ FOR ENHANCED AFTERNOON BREEZES EACH DAY. HOWEVER
ONE STRONGER DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE FARTHER SOUTH ACROSS NORTHERN AZ
THURSDAY GENERATING GUSTY NORTH TO NORTHWEST WINDS 15 TO 25 MPH WITH
GUSTS TO 30 MPH. A SIGNIFICANTLY DRIER AIRMASS FROM THE NORTH WILL
ALSO SWEEP ACROSS THE REGION. MARGINAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED THURSDAY. OTHERWISE...BREEZY CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST EACH
AFTERNOON WITH MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITIES IN THE 5 TO 10 PERCENT
RANGE. OVERNIGHT RECOVERY SHOULD BE FAIR...EXCEPT FOR THE
BREEZY/WINDY PERIOD THURSDAY NIGHT. AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES WILL
REMAIN 8 TO 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AZ...NONE.
CA...NONE.
&&

$$

VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/PHOENIX

DISCUSSION...NOLTE
CLIMATE...NOLTE/MO
AVIATION....VASQUEZ
FIRE WEATHER...VASQUEZ




000
FXUS65 KPSR 311208 CCA
AFDPSR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PHOENIX AZ
508 AM MST TUE MAR 31 2015

.UPDATE...AVIATION AND FIRE WEATHER DISCUSSIONS.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
DRY WEAK TROUGHING WILL SLOWLY CONTINUE TO WORK ACROSS THE AREA WITH
PERIODS OF PASSING HIGH CLOUDS. ANOTHER DRY WEATHER SYSTEM WILL MOVE
INTO THE REGION FROM THE GREAT BASIN LATE WEDNESDAY THROUGH
FRIDAY...USHERING IN COOLER TEMPERATURES AND INCREASING WINDS. DRY
CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH CONTINUED ABOVE
NORMAL TEMPERATURES WITH DAYTIME HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S TO LOW 90S.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
MUCH CLEARER SKIES NOTED ON WATER VAPOR/IR IMAGERY THIS EARLY AM
ACROSS SOUTHEAST CA AND SOUTH-CENTRAL AZ. ONLY SOME POCKETS OF CU
STILL OBSERVED OVER EASTERN GILA COUNTY WITH MORE WIDESPREAD CU AND
CIRRUS FIELDS ACROSS SOUTHEAST AZ THIS AM. ANY LINGERING RADAR
RETURNS ON KEMX (TUCSON WX RADAR) ARE SOUTH OF THE BORDER CLOSER TO
THE PVU AND DYNAMICS OF THE CUT-OFF LOW NOW OVER THE BAJA SPUR. EVEN
A FEW STRIKES OF LIGHTNING HAVE BEEN NOTED ALONG THE SONORA/CHIHUAHUA
BORDER FROM MORE ORGANIZED SHOWER/THUNDERSHOWER ACTIVITY EMBEDDED IN
THE HEART OF TROPICAL MOISTURE PLUME AND SATELLITE DERIVED UPPER JET
MAXIMA. THE CUT-OFF WILL CONTINUE A SLOW TRACK EASTWARD OVER NORTHERN
MEXICO THROUGH THE DAY...TRANSLATING ADDITIONAL SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY FURTHER TO THE EAST ACROSS NM/WEST TX BY THE AFTERNOON.

ADDITIONAL WEAK SHORTWAVE TRACKING ALONG THE NORTHERN AZ
BORDER WILL MOVE THROUGH WITH LITTLE IMPACT TO OUR FORECAST
AREA...SAVE FOR SOME PERIODS OF PASSING HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS POSSIBLY
SETTING UP ANOTHER GORGEOUS SOUTHWEST SUNSET LATER TODAY.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE A FEW DEGREES COOLER THAN THE PAST FEW
AFTERNOONS...BUT STILL FLIRT WITH RECORDS AT LEAST IN PHOENIX TODAY.
RECORD HIGH FOR THIS DAY IS 94F (2012) AND THAT IS WHAT WE ARE
CURRENTLY FORECASTING. YUMA-EL CENTRO-BLYTHE CAN LOOK FOR MID 90S
AGAIN AS WELL...WHILE THE HIGHER TERRAIN LOCALES OF GLOBE AND JTNP
CAN LOOK FOR DAYTIME HIGHS IN THE 80S.

OPERATIONAL AND ENSEMBLE HEIGHT FORECASTS ARE IN THE GOOD AGREEMENT
THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEKEND...ADVERTISING MOSTLY ZONAL FLOW
ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST STATES. PASSING GREAT BASIN SHORTWAVE FROM THE
NORTHERN STORM TRACK WILL CLIP NORTHERN AZ THURSDAY BRINGING IN SOME
DRIER AIR AND MILD CAA INTO THE REGION...PARTICULARLY ALONG AND
THROUGH THE CO RIVER VALLEY. IN ADDITION...UL JET STREAK MOVING OFF
THE EASTERN PACIFIC AS PART OF THE SOUTHERN STORM TRACK WILL HELP
ENHANCE WINDS ALONG THE BASE OF THE TROUGH...RESULTING IN BREEZY TO
LOCALLY WINDY CONDITIONS THURSDAY. MAIN IMPACTS FROM THIS SYSTEM FOR
THURSDAY WILL BE WINDY CONDITIONS...COOLER TEMPERATURES AND CRASHING
DEWPOINT READINGS. THE COMBINATION OF STRONG WINDS AND LOW RHS (WITH
MANY OF THE WESTERN FIRE DISTRICTS IN OUR FORECAST AREA IN THE SINGLE
DIGITS) MAY LEAD TO CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS DURING THE DAY
THURSDAY. CURRENT WIND SPEED FORECASTS DO NOT SUPPORT WIDESPREAD
AREAL CONCERNS...BUT CONDITIONS MAY BE REALIZED IN LOCALIZED POCKETS.
WILL HIGHLIGHT THE FIRE WX CONCERNS WITH A HEADLINE IN THE FIRE
WEATHER DISCUSSION BELOW.

AFTER THE LATE WEEK SHORTWAVE CLEARS THE REGION...BROAD TROUGH
HEIGHTS/SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW REMAIN OVER MUCH OF THE WESTERN CONUS
THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. OPERATIONAL GFS/ECMWF SOLNS ADVERTISE
A LARGE SHORTWAVE MOVING OFF THE PACIFIC LATE SUNDAY/EARLY
MONDAY...HOWEVER THEIR ENSEMBLE (GEFS/NAEFS/ECENS) COUNTERPARTS DO
LITTLE TO INSPIRE CONFIDENCE IN THE EVOLUTION OF THAT SYSTEM.
BROADBRUSH FORECAST WILL HOLD THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK OF CONTINUED DRY CONDITIONS AND SLIGHTLY ABOVE-CLIMO
TEMPERATURES.

&&

.CLIMATE...

RECORD HIGHS THIS WEEK...

CITY        MARCH 31
--------    --------
PHOENIX     94 IN 2012/2004/1989
YUMA        100 IN 2011

&&

.AVIATION... SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA INCLUDING KPHX...KIWA...AND
KSDL...AND SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA AND SOUTHWEST ARIZONA INCLUDING KIPL
AND KBLH...

WEAK PACIFIC DISTURBANCE IS FORECAST TO MOVE ACROSS NORTHERN AZ LATE
TODAY RESULTING IN GUSTY AFTERNOON/EVENING WEST WINDS. THROUGH 17Z
TUE...MOSTLY CLEAR. LIGHT WIND UNDER 8 KNOTS. FROM 17Z TUE TO 02Z
WED...INCREASING WEST WIND 12 TO 15 KNOTS WITH GUSTS TO 22 KNOTS.
OCCASIONAL HIGH CLOUDS.

AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDED TAFS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

...GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS AND VERY LOW HUMIDITY AREA-WIDE THURSDAY
AFTERNOON FOR MARGINAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS...

THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY...

A SERIES OF WEATHER DISTURBANCES WILL MOVE ACROSS THE WESTERN STATES
MAINLY NORTH OF AZ FOR ENHANCED AFTERNOON BREEZES EACH DAY. HOWEVER
ONE STRONGER DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE FARTHER SOUTH ACROSS NORTHERN AZ
THURSDAY GENERATING GUSTY NORTH TO NORTHWEST WINDS 15 TO 25 MPH WITH
GUSTS TO 30 MPH. A SIGNIFICANTLY DRIER AIRMASS FROM THE NORTH WILL
ALSO SWEEP ACROSS THE REGION. MARGINAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED THURSDAY. OTHERWISE...BREEZY CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST EACH
AFTERNOON WITH MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITIES IN THE 5 TO 10 PERCENT
RANGE. OVERNIGHT RECOVERY SHOULD BE FAIR...EXCEPT FOR THE
BREEZY/WINDY PERIOD THURSDAY NIGHT. AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES WILL
REMAIN 8 TO 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AZ...NONE.
CA...NONE.
&&

$$

VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/PHOENIX

DISCUSSION...NOLTE
CLIMATE...NOLTE/MO
AVIATION....VASQUEZ
FIRE WEATHER...VASQUEZ



000
FXUS65 KTWC 311107
AFDTWC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ
405 AM MST TUE MAR 31 2015

.SYNOPSIS...A FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAY OCCUR MAINLY NEAR
THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER SOUTHEAST OF TUCSON AND ACROSS THE WHITE
MOUNTAINS THIS AFTERNOON. DRY CONDITIONS WITH CONTINUED ABOVE NORMAL
DAYTIME TEMPERATURES WILL THEN PREVAIL WEDNESDAY INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK. EXPECT GUSTY WINDS AT TIMES INTO THE WEEKEND...AND THE
STRONGEST WINDS SHOULD OCCUR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...WEAK UPPER LOW JUST SOUTH OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA SPUR
EARLY THIS MORNING WILL MOVE EWD INTO WRN CHIHUAHUA THIS AFTERNOON.
THERE IS ENOUGH MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY TO MAINTAIN A SLIGHT CHANCE
OF SHOWERS/TSTMS THIS AFTERNOON MAINLY NEAR THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER
ADJACENT SANTA CRUZ/COCHISE COUNTIES. ANOTHER IMPULSE PRESENTLY OVER
NWRN AZ WILL MOVE EWD TO NEAR THE FOUR CORNERS REGION THIS AFTERNOON.
THIS SYSTEM WILL ALSO PROVIDE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS/TSTMS
ACROSS THE WHITE MOUNTAINS THIS AFTERNOON. ANY MEASURABLE RAINFALL
AMOUNTS WILL BE LIGHT...WITH ONLY A FEW HUNDREDTHS OF AN INCH
EXPECTED. DRY CONDITIONS WILL THEN OCCUR AREA-WIDE THIS EVENING
FOLLOWED BY CLEAR SKIES OR MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES LATE TONIGHT.

ZONAL FLOW ALOFT WILL PREVAIL WED-THUR...THEN GENERALLY SWLY FLOW
ALOFT WILL OCCUR FRI-MON IN RESPONSE TO A LOW PRESSURE TROUGH NEAR
THE WEST COAST. PRECIP-FREE CONDITIONS WILL OCCUR WED-MON...WITH
OCCASIONAL MAINLY HIGH-LEVEL CLOUDS TO MOVE ACROSS THE AREA. A
FAIRLY TIGHT MID-LEVEL GRADIENT WILL CONTRIBUTE TO SEASONALLY GUSTY
WINDS...ESPECIALLY DURING THE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING HOURS. THE
STRONGEST WINDS VIA VARIOUS 31/00Z NWP GUIDANCE SHOULD OCCUR WED AND
THUR. CURIOUS TO NOTE THAT THE 31/00Z NAM/GFS MOS GUIDANCE WIND
SPEEDS ARE GENERALLY STRONGER WED VERSUS THUR...ALTHOUGH A PRONOUNCED
SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS PROGGED TO MOVE NORTH OF THE AREA THUR.

A VERY GRADUAL COOLING TREND IS FORECAST TO OCCUR TODAY-FRI FOLLOWED
BY MODEST WARMING SAT. SLIGHTLY COOLER HIGH TEMPS SHOULD PREVAIL BY
NEXT MON. HOWEVER...DAYTIME TEMPS DURING MUCH OF THIS FORECAST
PERIOD WILL GENERALLY AVERAGE ABOUT 5-10 DEGS ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION...VALID THRU 01/12Z.
THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF -TSRA/-SHRA THIS AFTERNOON MAINLY NEAR
THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER SOUTH-TO-SOUTHEAST OF KTUS...AND ACROSS THE
WHITE MOUNTAINS NE OF KSAD. BRIEF WIND GUSTS TO AROUND 40 KTS MAY
ACCOMPANY ANY -TSRA. KOLS AND KDUG WILL BE MOST PRONE TO THESE
GUSTS...BUT THE EXPECTED OCCURRENCE IS TOO LOW TO INCLUDE IN THE
TAFS. OTHERWISE...SCT-OVC CLOUDS AT 10-15K FT AGL TODAY MAINLY EAST
OF KTUS WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES WEST OF KTUS...THEN CLEARING SKIES
THIS EVENING. EXPECT A FEW-SCT CIRRUS CLOUDS LATE TONIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY MORNING. SURFACE WIND THIS AFTERNOON WILL BE WLY/NWLY
12-18 KTS WITH GUSTS OF 25-30 KTS. OTHERWISE...SURFACE WIND WILL BE
LESS THAN 10 KTS. AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR TAF AMENDMENTS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON MAINLY NEAR THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER
ADJACENT COCHISE COUNTY AND SANTA CRUZ COUNTY...AND ACROSS THE WHITE
MOUNTAINS. GIVEN THE VERY DRY SURFACE REGIME...BRIEF GUSTY AND
ERRATIC WINDS MAY OCCUR NEAR THUNDERSTORMS. DRY CONDITIONS WITH
CONTINUED ABOVE NORMAL DAYTIME TEMPERATURES WILL THEN PREVAIL
WEDNESDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

GUSTY WINDS WILL OCCUR MAINLY DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING
HOURS INTO THIS WEEKEND. THE STRONGEST WINDS SHOULD PREVAIL
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. THE BEST OCCURRENCE FOR WIDESPREAD RED
FLAG CRITERIA IS MAINLY NEAR THE NEW MEXICO BORDER LATE THURSDAY
AFTERNOON AND EARLY THURSDAY EVENING. FIELD CREWS ARE ENCOURAGED TO
MONITOR SUBSEQUENT FORECASTS FOR THE POTENTIAL ISSUANCE OF A FIRE
WEATHER WATCH OR RED FLAG WARNING.

&&

.TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...YOUTUBE...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/TUCSON

FRANCIS





000
FXUS65 KTWC 311107
AFDTWC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ
405 AM MST TUE MAR 31 2015

.SYNOPSIS...A FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAY OCCUR MAINLY NEAR
THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER SOUTHEAST OF TUCSON AND ACROSS THE WHITE
MOUNTAINS THIS AFTERNOON. DRY CONDITIONS WITH CONTINUED ABOVE NORMAL
DAYTIME TEMPERATURES WILL THEN PREVAIL WEDNESDAY INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK. EXPECT GUSTY WINDS AT TIMES INTO THE WEEKEND...AND THE
STRONGEST WINDS SHOULD OCCUR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...WEAK UPPER LOW JUST SOUTH OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA SPUR
EARLY THIS MORNING WILL MOVE EWD INTO WRN CHIHUAHUA THIS AFTERNOON.
THERE IS ENOUGH MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY TO MAINTAIN A SLIGHT CHANCE
OF SHOWERS/TSTMS THIS AFTERNOON MAINLY NEAR THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER
ADJACENT SANTA CRUZ/COCHISE COUNTIES. ANOTHER IMPULSE PRESENTLY OVER
NWRN AZ WILL MOVE EWD TO NEAR THE FOUR CORNERS REGION THIS AFTERNOON.
THIS SYSTEM WILL ALSO PROVIDE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS/TSTMS
ACROSS THE WHITE MOUNTAINS THIS AFTERNOON. ANY MEASURABLE RAINFALL
AMOUNTS WILL BE LIGHT...WITH ONLY A FEW HUNDREDTHS OF AN INCH
EXPECTED. DRY CONDITIONS WILL THEN OCCUR AREA-WIDE THIS EVENING
FOLLOWED BY CLEAR SKIES OR MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES LATE TONIGHT.

ZONAL FLOW ALOFT WILL PREVAIL WED-THUR...THEN GENERALLY SWLY FLOW
ALOFT WILL OCCUR FRI-MON IN RESPONSE TO A LOW PRESSURE TROUGH NEAR
THE WEST COAST. PRECIP-FREE CONDITIONS WILL OCCUR WED-MON...WITH
OCCASIONAL MAINLY HIGH-LEVEL CLOUDS TO MOVE ACROSS THE AREA. A
FAIRLY TIGHT MID-LEVEL GRADIENT WILL CONTRIBUTE TO SEASONALLY GUSTY
WINDS...ESPECIALLY DURING THE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING HOURS. THE
STRONGEST WINDS VIA VARIOUS 31/00Z NWP GUIDANCE SHOULD OCCUR WED AND
THUR. CURIOUS TO NOTE THAT THE 31/00Z NAM/GFS MOS GUIDANCE WIND
SPEEDS ARE GENERALLY STRONGER WED VERSUS THUR...ALTHOUGH A PRONOUNCED
SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS PROGGED TO MOVE NORTH OF THE AREA THUR.

A VERY GRADUAL COOLING TREND IS FORECAST TO OCCUR TODAY-FRI FOLLOWED
BY MODEST WARMING SAT. SLIGHTLY COOLER HIGH TEMPS SHOULD PREVAIL BY
NEXT MON. HOWEVER...DAYTIME TEMPS DURING MUCH OF THIS FORECAST
PERIOD WILL GENERALLY AVERAGE ABOUT 5-10 DEGS ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION...VALID THRU 01/12Z.
THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF -TSRA/-SHRA THIS AFTERNOON MAINLY NEAR
THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER SOUTH-TO-SOUTHEAST OF KTUS...AND ACROSS THE
WHITE MOUNTAINS NE OF KSAD. BRIEF WIND GUSTS TO AROUND 40 KTS MAY
ACCOMPANY ANY -TSRA. KOLS AND KDUG WILL BE MOST PRONE TO THESE
GUSTS...BUT THE EXPECTED OCCURRENCE IS TOO LOW TO INCLUDE IN THE
TAFS. OTHERWISE...SCT-OVC CLOUDS AT 10-15K FT AGL TODAY MAINLY EAST
OF KTUS WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES WEST OF KTUS...THEN CLEARING SKIES
THIS EVENING. EXPECT A FEW-SCT CIRRUS CLOUDS LATE TONIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY MORNING. SURFACE WIND THIS AFTERNOON WILL BE WLY/NWLY
12-18 KTS WITH GUSTS OF 25-30 KTS. OTHERWISE...SURFACE WIND WILL BE
LESS THAN 10 KTS. AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR TAF AMENDMENTS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON MAINLY NEAR THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER
ADJACENT COCHISE COUNTY AND SANTA CRUZ COUNTY...AND ACROSS THE WHITE
MOUNTAINS. GIVEN THE VERY DRY SURFACE REGIME...BRIEF GUSTY AND
ERRATIC WINDS MAY OCCUR NEAR THUNDERSTORMS. DRY CONDITIONS WITH
CONTINUED ABOVE NORMAL DAYTIME TEMPERATURES WILL THEN PREVAIL
WEDNESDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

GUSTY WINDS WILL OCCUR MAINLY DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING
HOURS INTO THIS WEEKEND. THE STRONGEST WINDS SHOULD PREVAIL
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. THE BEST OCCURRENCE FOR WIDESPREAD RED
FLAG CRITERIA IS MAINLY NEAR THE NEW MEXICO BORDER LATE THURSDAY
AFTERNOON AND EARLY THURSDAY EVENING. FIELD CREWS ARE ENCOURAGED TO
MONITOR SUBSEQUENT FORECASTS FOR THE POTENTIAL ISSUANCE OF A FIRE
WEATHER WATCH OR RED FLAG WARNING.

&&

.TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...YOUTUBE...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/TUCSON

FRANCIS






000
FXUS65 KPSR 311103
AFDPSR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PHOENIX AZ
400 AM MST TUE MAR 31 2015

.UPDATE...AVIATION AND FIRE WEATHER DISCUSSIONS.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
DRY WEAK TROUGHING WILL SLOWLY CONTINUE TO WORK ACROSS THE AREA WITH
PERIODS OF PASSING HIGH CLOUDS. ANOTHER DRY WEATHER SYSTEM WILL MOVE
INTO THE REGION FROM THE GREAT BASIN LATE WEDNESDAY THROUGH
FRIDAY...USHERING IN COOLER TEMPERATURES AND INCREASING WINDS. DRY
CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH CONTINUED ABOVE
NORMAL TEMPERATURES WITH DAYTIME HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S TO LOW 90S.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
MUCH CLEARER SKIES NOTED ON WATER VAPOR/IR IMAGERY THIS EARLY AM
ACROSS SOUTHEAST CA AND SOUTH-CENTRAL AZ. ONLY SOME POCKETS OF CU
STILL OBSERVED OVER EASTERN GILA COUNTY WITH MORE WIDESPREAD CU AND
CIRRUS FIELDS ACROSS SOUTHEAST AZ THIS AM. ANY LINGERING RADAR
RETURNS ON KEMX (TUCSON WX RADAR) ARE SOUTH OF THE BORDER CLOSER TO
THE PVU AND DYNAMICS OF THE CUT-OFF LOW NOW OVER THE BAJA SPUR. EVEN
A FEW STRIKES OF LIGHTNING HAVE BEEN NOTED ALONG THE SONORA/CHIHUAHUA
BORDER FROM MORE ORGANIZED SHOWER/THUNDERSHOWER ACTIVITY EMBEDDED IN
THE HEART OF TROPICAL MOISTURE PLUME AND SATELLITE DERIVED UPPER JET
MAXIMA. THE CUT-OFF WILL CONTINUE A SLOW TRACK EASTWARD OVER NORTHERN
MEXICO THROUGH THE DAY...TRANSLATING ADDITIONAL SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY FURTHER TO THE EAST ACROSS NM/WEST TX BY THE AFTERNOON.

ADDITIONAL WEAK SHORTWAVE TRACKING ALONG THE NORTHERN AZ
BORDER WILL MOVE THROUGH WITH LITTLE IMPACT TO OUR FORECAST
AREA...SAVE FOR SOME PERIODS OF PASSING HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS POSSIBLY
SETTING UP ANOTHER GORGEOUS SOUTHWEST SUNSET LATER TODAY.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE A FEW DEGREES COOLER THAN THE PAST FEW
AFTERNOONS...BUT STILL FLIRT WITH RECORDS AT LEAST IN PHOENIX TODAY.
RECORD HIGH FOR THIS DAY IS 94F (2012) AND THAT IS WHAT WE ARE
CURRENTLY FORECASTING. YUMA-EL CENTRO-BLYTHE CAN LOOK FOR MID 90S
AGAIN AS WELL...WHILE THE HIGHER TERRAIN LOCALES OF GLOBE AND JTNP
CAN LOOK FOR DAYTIME HIGHS IN THE 80S.

OPERATIONAL AND ENSEMBLE HEIGHT FORECASTS ARE IN THE GOOD AGREEMENT
THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEKEND...ADVERTISING MOSTLY ZONAL FLOW
ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST STATES. PASSING GREAT BASIN SHORTWAVE FROM THE
NORTHERN STORM TRACK WILL CLIP NORTHERN AZ THURSDAY BRINGING IN SOME
DRIER AIR AND MILD CAA INTO THE REGION...PARTICULARLY ALONG AND
THROUGH THE CO RIVER VALLEY. IN ADDITION...UL JET STREAK MOVING OFF
THE EASTERN PACIFIC AS PART OF THE SOUTHERN STORM TRACK WILL HELP
ENHANCE WINDS ALONG THE BASE OF THE TROUGH...RESULTING IN BREEZY TO
LOCALLY WINDY CONDITIONS THURSDAY. MAIN IMPACTS FROM THIS SYSTEM FOR
THURSDAY WILL BE WINDY CONDITIONS...COOLER TEMPERATURES AND CRASHING
DEWPOINT READINGS. THE COMBINATION OF STRONG WINDS AND LOW RHS (WITH
MANY OF THE WESTERN FIRE DISTRICTS IN OUR FORECAST AREA IN THE SINGLE
DIGITS) MAY LEAD TO CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS DURING THE DAY
THURSDAY. CURRENT WIND SPEED FORECASTS DO NOT SUPPORT WIDESPREAD
AREAL CONCERNS...BUT CONDITIONS MAY BE REALIZED IN LOCALIZED POCKETS.
WILL HIGHLIGHT THE FIRE WX CONCERNS WITH A HEADLINE IN THE FIRE
WEATHER FORECAST PRODUCT (FWFPSR) AT THIS TIME.

AFTER THE LATE WEEK SHORTWAVE CLEARS THE REGION...BROAD TROUGH
HEIGHTS/SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW REMAIN OVER MUCH OF THE WESTERN CONUS
THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. OPERATIONAL GFS/ECMWF SOLNS ADVERTISE
A LARGE SHORTWAVE MOVING OFF THE PACIFIC LATE SUNDAY/EARLY
MONDAY...HOWEVER THEIR ENSEMBLE (GEFS/NAEFS/ECENS) COUNTERPARTS DO
LITTLE TO INSPIRE CONFIDENCE IN THE EVOLUTION OF THAT SYSTEM.
BROADBRUSH FORECAST WILL HOLD THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK OF CONTINUED DRY CONDITIONS AND SLIGHTLY ABOVE-CLIMO
TEMPERATURES.

&&

.CLIMATE...

RECORD HIGHS THIS WEEK...

CITY        MARCH 31
--------    --------
PHOENIX     94 IN 2012
YUMA        100 IN 2011

&&

.AVIATION... SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA INCLUDING KPHX...KIWA...AND
KSDL...AND SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA AND SOUTHWEST ARIZONA INCLUDING KIPL
AND KBLH...

WEAK PACIFIC DISTURBANCE IS FORECAST TO MOVE ACROSS NORTHERN AZ LATE
TODAY RESULTING IN GUSTY AFTERNOON/EVENING WEST WINDS. THROUGH 17Z
TUE...MOSTLY CLEAR. LIGHT WIND UNDER 8 KNOTS. FROM 17Z TUE TO 02Z
WED...INCREASING WEST WIND 12 TO 15 KNOTS WITH GUSTS TO 22 KNOTS.
OCCASIONAL HIGH CLOUDS.

AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDED TAFS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

...GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS AND VERY LOW HUMIDITY AREA-WIDE THURSDAY
AFTERNOON FOR MARGINAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS...

THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY... A SERIES OF WEATHER DISTURBANCES WILL
MOVE ACROSS THE WESTERN STATES MAINLY NORTH OF AZ FOR ENHANCED
AFTERNOON BREEZES EACH DAY. HOWEVER ONE STRONGER DISTURBANCE WILL
MOVE FARTHER SOUTH ACROSS NORTHERN AZ THURSDAY GENERATING GUSTY
NORTH TO NORTHWEST WINDS 15 TO 25 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 30 MPH. A
SIGNIFICANTLY DRIER AIRMASS FROM THE NORTH WILL ALSO SWEEP ACROSS
THE REGION. MARGINAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THURSDAY.
OTHERWISE...BREEZY CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST EACH AFTERNOON WITH
MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITIES IN THE 5 TO 10 PERCENT RANGE. OVERNIGHT
RECOVERY SHOULD BE FAIR...EXCEPT FOR THE BREEZY/WINDY PERIOD
THURSDAY NIGHT. AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN 8 TO 10 DEGREES
ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AZ...NONE.
CA...NONE.
&&

$$

VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/PHOENIX

DISCUSSION...NOLTE
CLIMATE...NOLTE/MO
AVIATION....VASQUEZ
FIRE WEATHER...VASQUEZ



000
FXUS65 KPSR 311103
AFDPSR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PHOENIX AZ
400 AM MST TUE MAR 31 2015

.UPDATE...AVIATION AND FIRE WEATHER DISCUSSIONS.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
DRY WEAK TROUGHING WILL SLOWLY CONTINUE TO WORK ACROSS THE AREA WITH
PERIODS OF PASSING HIGH CLOUDS. ANOTHER DRY WEATHER SYSTEM WILL MOVE
INTO THE REGION FROM THE GREAT BASIN LATE WEDNESDAY THROUGH
FRIDAY...USHERING IN COOLER TEMPERATURES AND INCREASING WINDS. DRY
CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH CONTINUED ABOVE
NORMAL TEMPERATURES WITH DAYTIME HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S TO LOW 90S.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
MUCH CLEARER SKIES NOTED ON WATER VAPOR/IR IMAGERY THIS EARLY AM
ACROSS SOUTHEAST CA AND SOUTH-CENTRAL AZ. ONLY SOME POCKETS OF CU
STILL OBSERVED OVER EASTERN GILA COUNTY WITH MORE WIDESPREAD CU AND
CIRRUS FIELDS ACROSS SOUTHEAST AZ THIS AM. ANY LINGERING RADAR
RETURNS ON KEMX (TUCSON WX RADAR) ARE SOUTH OF THE BORDER CLOSER TO
THE PVU AND DYNAMICS OF THE CUT-OFF LOW NOW OVER THE BAJA SPUR. EVEN
A FEW STRIKES OF LIGHTNING HAVE BEEN NOTED ALONG THE SONORA/CHIHUAHUA
BORDER FROM MORE ORGANIZED SHOWER/THUNDERSHOWER ACTIVITY EMBEDDED IN
THE HEART OF TROPICAL MOISTURE PLUME AND SATELLITE DERIVED UPPER JET
MAXIMA. THE CUT-OFF WILL CONTINUE A SLOW TRACK EASTWARD OVER NORTHERN
MEXICO THROUGH THE DAY...TRANSLATING ADDITIONAL SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY FURTHER TO THE EAST ACROSS NM/WEST TX BY THE AFTERNOON.

ADDITIONAL WEAK SHORTWAVE TRACKING ALONG THE NORTHERN AZ
BORDER WILL MOVE THROUGH WITH LITTLE IMPACT TO OUR FORECAST
AREA...SAVE FOR SOME PERIODS OF PASSING HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS POSSIBLY
SETTING UP ANOTHER GORGEOUS SOUTHWEST SUNSET LATER TODAY.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE A FEW DEGREES COOLER THAN THE PAST FEW
AFTERNOONS...BUT STILL FLIRT WITH RECORDS AT LEAST IN PHOENIX TODAY.
RECORD HIGH FOR THIS DAY IS 94F (2012) AND THAT IS WHAT WE ARE
CURRENTLY FORECASTING. YUMA-EL CENTRO-BLYTHE CAN LOOK FOR MID 90S
AGAIN AS WELL...WHILE THE HIGHER TERRAIN LOCALES OF GLOBE AND JTNP
CAN LOOK FOR DAYTIME HIGHS IN THE 80S.

OPERATIONAL AND ENSEMBLE HEIGHT FORECASTS ARE IN THE GOOD AGREEMENT
THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEKEND...ADVERTISING MOSTLY ZONAL FLOW
ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST STATES. PASSING GREAT BASIN SHORTWAVE FROM THE
NORTHERN STORM TRACK WILL CLIP NORTHERN AZ THURSDAY BRINGING IN SOME
DRIER AIR AND MILD CAA INTO THE REGION...PARTICULARLY ALONG AND
THROUGH THE CO RIVER VALLEY. IN ADDITION...UL JET STREAK MOVING OFF
THE EASTERN PACIFIC AS PART OF THE SOUTHERN STORM TRACK WILL HELP
ENHANCE WINDS ALONG THE BASE OF THE TROUGH...RESULTING IN BREEZY TO
LOCALLY WINDY CONDITIONS THURSDAY. MAIN IMPACTS FROM THIS SYSTEM FOR
THURSDAY WILL BE WINDY CONDITIONS...COOLER TEMPERATURES AND CRASHING
DEWPOINT READINGS. THE COMBINATION OF STRONG WINDS AND LOW RHS (WITH
MANY OF THE WESTERN FIRE DISTRICTS IN OUR FORECAST AREA IN THE SINGLE
DIGITS) MAY LEAD TO CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS DURING THE DAY
THURSDAY. CURRENT WIND SPEED FORECASTS DO NOT SUPPORT WIDESPREAD
AREAL CONCERNS...BUT CONDITIONS MAY BE REALIZED IN LOCALIZED POCKETS.
WILL HIGHLIGHT THE FIRE WX CONCERNS WITH A HEADLINE IN THE FIRE
WEATHER FORECAST PRODUCT (FWFPSR) AT THIS TIME.

AFTER THE LATE WEEK SHORTWAVE CLEARS THE REGION...BROAD TROUGH
HEIGHTS/SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW REMAIN OVER MUCH OF THE WESTERN CONUS
THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. OPERATIONAL GFS/ECMWF SOLNS ADVERTISE
A LARGE SHORTWAVE MOVING OFF THE PACIFIC LATE SUNDAY/EARLY
MONDAY...HOWEVER THEIR ENSEMBLE (GEFS/NAEFS/ECENS) COUNTERPARTS DO
LITTLE TO INSPIRE CONFIDENCE IN THE EVOLUTION OF THAT SYSTEM.
BROADBRUSH FORECAST WILL HOLD THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK OF CONTINUED DRY CONDITIONS AND SLIGHTLY ABOVE-CLIMO
TEMPERATURES.

&&

.CLIMATE...

RECORD HIGHS THIS WEEK...

CITY        MARCH 31
--------    --------
PHOENIX     94 IN 2012
YUMA        100 IN 2011

&&

.AVIATION... SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA INCLUDING KPHX...KIWA...AND
KSDL...AND SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA AND SOUTHWEST ARIZONA INCLUDING KIPL
AND KBLH...

WEAK PACIFIC DISTURBANCE IS FORECAST TO MOVE ACROSS NORTHERN AZ LATE
TODAY RESULTING IN GUSTY AFTERNOON/EVENING WEST WINDS. THROUGH 17Z
TUE...MOSTLY CLEAR. LIGHT WIND UNDER 8 KNOTS. FROM 17Z TUE TO 02Z
WED...INCREASING WEST WIND 12 TO 15 KNOTS WITH GUSTS TO 22 KNOTS.
OCCASIONAL HIGH CLOUDS.

AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDED TAFS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

...GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS AND VERY LOW HUMIDITY AREA-WIDE THURSDAY
AFTERNOON FOR MARGINAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS...

THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY... A SERIES OF WEATHER DISTURBANCES WILL
MOVE ACROSS THE WESTERN STATES MAINLY NORTH OF AZ FOR ENHANCED
AFTERNOON BREEZES EACH DAY. HOWEVER ONE STRONGER DISTURBANCE WILL
MOVE FARTHER SOUTH ACROSS NORTHERN AZ THURSDAY GENERATING GUSTY
NORTH TO NORTHWEST WINDS 15 TO 25 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 30 MPH. A
SIGNIFICANTLY DRIER AIRMASS FROM THE NORTH WILL ALSO SWEEP ACROSS
THE REGION. MARGINAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THURSDAY.
OTHERWISE...BREEZY CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST EACH AFTERNOON WITH
MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITIES IN THE 5 TO 10 PERCENT RANGE. OVERNIGHT
RECOVERY SHOULD BE FAIR...EXCEPT FOR THE BREEZY/WINDY PERIOD
THURSDAY NIGHT. AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN 8 TO 10 DEGREES
ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AZ...NONE.
CA...NONE.
&&

$$

VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/PHOENIX

DISCUSSION...NOLTE
CLIMATE...NOLTE/MO
AVIATION....VASQUEZ
FIRE WEATHER...VASQUEZ




000
FXUS65 KFGZ 311101
AFDFGZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ
401 AM MST TUE MAR 31 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE AGAIN TODAY...WITH A
COOLING TREND AS THE WEEK EVOLVES. THE MAIN IMPACT DURING THE
SEVEN-DAY FORECAST WILL BE THE RETURN OF GUSTY SPRINGTIME
WINDS.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
A SLIGHT CHANCE OF HIGH-BASED SHOWERS WILL LINGER THIS AFTERNOON
ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS OF EASTERN ARIZONA. OTHERWISE...BREEZIER
SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL TYPIFY MOST AFTERNOONS DURING THE
UPCOMING SEVERAL DAYS...WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR DOWNRIGHT GUSTY
WINDS ON WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY AS A COLD FRONT PUSHES INTO AND
ACROSS THE GREAT BASIN. DAYTIME TEMPS WILL COOL DURING THE COURSE
OF THE WEEK...WITH FRIDAY LIKELY THE COOLEST DAY IN THE WAKE OF
THE COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE. PRECIPITATION IS NOT CURRENTLY
ANTICIPATED ACROSS NORTHERN AZ WITH THIS FRONTAL PASSAGE.

&&

.AVIATION...
FOR THE 12Z PACKAGE...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST
THROUGHOUT THE NEXT TWENTY-FOUR HOURS. THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE
OF -TSRA OVER THE WHITE MTNS THIS AFTERNOON. GUSTY SW15-25KTS
WINDS EXPECTED 19-01Z. AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR TAF
AMENDMENTS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
EXPECT INCREASING WIND THIS AFTERNOON AND WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AS A
LOW PRESSURE TROUGH DEVELOPS TO THE NORTH AND WEST OF ARIZONA.
BY WEDNESDAY...PORTIONS OF THE LITTLE COLORADO RIVER VALLEY AND
THE COCONINO PLATEAU MAY HAVE (20 FOOT) WINDS AT 20 MPH OR A
LITTLE STRONGER. MINIMUM RH VALUES WILL DROP TO AROUND 10 PERCENT
IN THE LOWER ELEVATIONS BY WEDNESDAY.

THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...STRONG AND GUSTY WEST WINDS ALONG WITH
SINGLE DIGIT MINIMUM AFTERNOON RH VALUES ARE EXPECTED AT LOWER
ELEVATIONS THURSDAY AFTERNOON AS A DRY COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH
NORTHERN ARIZONA. CONTINUED LOW RH VALUES ARE EXPECTED ON FRIDAY
AND SATURDAY AFTERNOONS...WITH MUCH LIGHTER WIND SPEEDS.

&&

.FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC.........KD
AVIATION.......MAS
FIRE WEATHER...MAS

FOR NORTHERN ARIZONA WEATHER INFORMATION VISIT
WEATHER.GOV/FLAGSTAFF







000
FXUS65 KFGZ 311101
AFDFGZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ
401 AM MST TUE MAR 31 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE AGAIN TODAY...WITH A
COOLING TREND AS THE WEEK EVOLVES. THE MAIN IMPACT DURING THE
SEVEN-DAY FORECAST WILL BE THE RETURN OF GUSTY SPRINGTIME
WINDS.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
A SLIGHT CHANCE OF HIGH-BASED SHOWERS WILL LINGER THIS AFTERNOON
ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS OF EASTERN ARIZONA. OTHERWISE...BREEZIER
SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL TYPIFY MOST AFTERNOONS DURING THE
UPCOMING SEVERAL DAYS...WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR DOWNRIGHT GUSTY
WINDS ON WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY AS A COLD FRONT PUSHES INTO AND
ACROSS THE GREAT BASIN. DAYTIME TEMPS WILL COOL DURING THE COURSE
OF THE WEEK...WITH FRIDAY LIKELY THE COOLEST DAY IN THE WAKE OF
THE COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE. PRECIPITATION IS NOT CURRENTLY
ANTICIPATED ACROSS NORTHERN AZ WITH THIS FRONTAL PASSAGE.

&&

.AVIATION...
FOR THE 12Z PACKAGE...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST
THROUGHOUT THE NEXT TWENTY-FOUR HOURS. THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE
OF -TSRA OVER THE WHITE MTNS THIS AFTERNOON. GUSTY SW15-25KTS
WINDS EXPECTED 19-01Z. AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR TAF
AMENDMENTS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
EXPECT INCREASING WIND THIS AFTERNOON AND WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AS A
LOW PRESSURE TROUGH DEVELOPS TO THE NORTH AND WEST OF ARIZONA.
BY WEDNESDAY...PORTIONS OF THE LITTLE COLORADO RIVER VALLEY AND
THE COCONINO PLATEAU MAY HAVE (20 FOOT) WINDS AT 20 MPH OR A
LITTLE STRONGER. MINIMUM RH VALUES WILL DROP TO AROUND 10 PERCENT
IN THE LOWER ELEVATIONS BY WEDNESDAY.

THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...STRONG AND GUSTY WEST WINDS ALONG WITH
SINGLE DIGIT MINIMUM AFTERNOON RH VALUES ARE EXPECTED AT LOWER
ELEVATIONS THURSDAY AFTERNOON AS A DRY COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH
NORTHERN ARIZONA. CONTINUED LOW RH VALUES ARE EXPECTED ON FRIDAY
AND SATURDAY AFTERNOONS...WITH MUCH LIGHTER WIND SPEEDS.

&&

.FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC.........KD
AVIATION.......MAS
FIRE WEATHER...MAS

FOR NORTHERN ARIZONA WEATHER INFORMATION VISIT
WEATHER.GOV/FLAGSTAFF






000
FXUS65 KPSR 311000
AFDPSR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PHOENIX AZ
300 AM MST TUE MAR 31 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
DRY WEAK TROUGHING WILL SLOWLY CONTINUE TO WORK ACROSS THE AREA WITH
PERIODS OF PASSING HIGH CLOUDS. ANOTHER DRY WEATHER SYSTEM WILL MOVE
INTO THE REGION FROM THE GREAT BASIN LATE WEDNESDAY THROUGH
FRIDAY...USHERING IN COOLER TEMPERATURES AND INCREASING WINDS. DRY
CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH CONTINUED ABOVE
NORMAL TEMPERATURES WITH DAYTIME HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S TO LOW 90S.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
MUCH CLEARER SKIES NOTED ON WATER VAPOR/IR IMAGERY THIS EARLY AM
ACROSS SOUTHEAST CA AND SOUTH-CENTRAL AZ. ONLY SOME POCKETS OF CU
STILL OBSERVED OVER EASTERN GILA COUNTY WITH MORE WIDESPREAD CU AND
CIRRUS FIELDS ACROSS SOUTHEAST AZ THIS AM. ANY LINGERING RADAR
RETURNS ON KEMX (TUCSON WX RADAR) ARE SOUTH OF THE BORDER CLOSER TO
THE PVU AND DYNAMICS OF THE CUT-OFF LOW NOW OVER THE BAJA SPUR. EVEN
A FEW STRIKES OF LIGHTNING HAVE BEEN NOTED ALONG THE SONORA/CHIHUAHUA
BORDER FROM MORE ORGANIZED SHOWER/THUNDERSHOWER ACTIVITY EMBEDDED IN
THE HEART OF TROPICAL MOISTURE PLUME AND SATELLITE DERIVED UPPER JET
MAXIMA. THE CUT-OFF WILL CONTINUE A SLOW TRACK EASTWARD OVER NORTHERN
MEXICO THROUGH THE DAY...TRANSLATING ADDITIONAL SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY FURTHER TO THE EAST ACROSS NM/WEST TX BY THE AFTERNOON.

ADDITIONAL WEAK SHORTWAVE TRACKING ALONG THE NORTHERN AZ
BORDER WILL MOVE THROUGH WITH LITTLE IMPACT TO OUR FORECAST
AREA...SAVE FOR SOME PERIODS OF PASSING HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS POSSIBLY
SETTING UP ANOTHER GORGEOUS SOUTHWEST SUNSET LATER TODAY.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE A FEW DEGREES COOLER THAN THE PAST FEW
AFTERNOONS...BUT STILL FLIRT WITH RECORDS AT LEAST IN PHOENIX TODAY.
RECORD HIGH FOR THIS DAY IS 94F (2012) AND THAT IS WHAT WE ARE
CURRENTLY FORECASTING. YUMA-EL CENTRO-BLYTHE CAN LOOK FOR MID 90S
AGAIN AS WELL...WHILE THE HIGHER TERRAIN LOCALES OF GLOBE AND JTNP
CAN LOOK FOR DAYTIME HIGHS IN THE 80S.

OPERATIONAL AND ENSEMBLE HEIGHT FORECASTS ARE IN THE GOOD AGREEMENT
THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEKEND...ADVERTISING MOSTLY ZONAL FLOW
ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST STATES. PASSING GREAT BASIN SHORTWAVE FROM THE
NORTHERN STORM TRACK WILL CLIP NORTHERN AZ THURSDAY BRINGING IN SOME
DRIER AIR AND MILD CAA INTO THE REGION...PARTICULARLY ALONG AND
THROUGH THE CO RIVER VALLEY. IN ADDITION...UL JET STREAK MOVING OFF
THE EASTERN PACIFIC AS PART OF THE SOUTHERN STORM TRACK WILL HELP
ENHANCE WINDS ALONG THE BASE OF THE TROUGH...RESULTING IN BREEZY TO
LOCALLY WINDY CONDITIONS THURSDAY. MAIN IMPACTS FROM THIS SYSTEM FOR
THURSDAY WILL BE WINDY CONDITIONS...COOLER TEMPERATURES AND CRASHING
DEWPOINT READINGS. THE COMBINATION OF STRONG WINDS AND LOW RHS (WITH
MANY OF THE WESTERN FIRE DISTRICTS IN OUR FORECAST AREA IN THE SINGLE
DIGITS) MAY LEAD TO CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS DURING THE DAY
THURSDAY. CURRENT WIND SPEED FORECASTS DO NOT SUPPORT WIDESPREAD
AREAL CONCERNS...BUT CONDITIONS MAY BE REALIZED IN LOCALIZED POCKETS.
WILL HIGHLIGHT THE FIRE WX CONCERNS WITH A HEADLINE IN THE FIRE
WEATHER FORECAST PRODUCT (FWFPSR) AT THIS TIME.

AFTER THE LATE WEEK SHORTWAVE CLEARS THE REGION...BROAD TROUGH
HEIGHTS/SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW REMAIN OVER MUCH OF THE WESTERN CONUS
THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. OPERATIONAL GFS/ECMWF SOLNS ADVERTISE
A LARGE SHORTWAVE MOVING OFF THE PACIFIC LATE SUNDAY/EARLY
MONDAY...HOWEVER THEIR ENSEMBLE (GEFS/NAEFS/ECENS) COUNTERPARTS DO
LITLE TO INSPIRE CONFIDENCE IN THE EVOLUTION OF THAT SYSTEM.
BROADBRUSH FORECAST WILL HOLD THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK OF CONTINUED DRY CONDITIONS AND SLIGHTLY ABOVE-CLIMO
TEMPERATURES.

&&

.CLIMATE...

RECORD HIGHS THIS WEEK...

CITY        MARCH 31
--------    --------
PHOENIX     94 IN 2012
YUMA        100 IN 2011

&&

.AVIATION...
SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA INCLUDING KPHX...KIWA...AND KSDL...AND
SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA AND SOUTHWEST ARIZONA INCLUDING KIPL AND KBLH...

WEAK LOW PRESSURE PASSING WELL TO OUR SOUTH IS PUSHING SCT-BKN MID-
HIGH LEVEL CIGS OVER THE PHX AREA THIS AFTERNOON. THESE CIGS ARE
EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH THIS EVENING...THEN BECOME FEW-SCT LATE
TONIGHT AND ON TUES AS THE AFOREMENTIONED LOW MOVES OFF TO THE EAST.
MAINLY CLEAR SKIES TO PREVAIL OVER THE SE CA TERMINALS THROUGH THE
TAF PERIOD. LIGHT WINDS TONIGHT AND EARLY TUESDAY ARE EXPECTED TO
PICK UP FROM THE SOUTHWEST AT THE PHX AREA TERMINALS AND AT
KIPL...AND PICK UP FROM THE SOUTH AT KBLH ON TUES AFTERNOON AS
ANOTHER WEATHER DISTURBANCE APPROACHING FROM THE WEST BEGINS TO
TIGHTEN SFC PRESSURE GRADIENTS OVER THE REGION...WITH SUSTAINED WINDS
RISING INTO THE 12-15KT RANGE BY LATE AFTERNOON ON TUESDAY AT ALL OF
THE TAF SITES.

AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDED TAFS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...
A SERIES OF WEAK PACIFIC WEATHER DISTURBANCES WILL MOVE ACROSS THE
WESTERN STATES JUST NORTH OF AZ...RESULTING IN CONSIDERABLE HIGH
CLOUDS AT TIMES WITH A COOLING TREND. ONE DISTURBANCE
THURSDAY/THURSDAY NIGHT WILL PRODUCE GUSTY NORTH WINDS 20 TO 30 MPH
IN SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA AND THE COLORADO RIVER VALLEY...STRONGEST
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY AFTERNOONS. GUSTY NORTH WINDS AND MINIMUM
RELATIVE HUMIDITIES IN THE 5 PERCENT RANGE MAY LEAD TO FIRE WEATHER
CONCERNS THURSDAY AND FRIDAY AFTERNOONS IN SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA AND
THE COLORADO RIVER VALLEY. OTHERWISE MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITIES WILL
REMAIN IN THE FIVE PERCENT RANGE THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD FRIDAY
THROUGH SUNDAY. OVERNIGHT RECOVERY WILL BE GOOD EXCEPT FOR THE BREEZY
PERIOD THURSDAY NIGHT.

&&

.PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AZ...NONE.
CA...NONE.
&&

$$

VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/PHOENIX

DISCUSSION...NOLTE
CLIMATE...NOLTE/MO
AVIATION....PERCHA
FIRE WEATHER...VASQUEZ




000
FXUS65 KPSR 311000
AFDPSR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PHOENIX AZ
300 AM MST TUE MAR 31 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
DRY WEAK TROUGHING WILL SLOWLY CONTINUE TO WORK ACROSS THE AREA WITH
PERIODS OF PASSING HIGH CLOUDS. ANOTHER DRY WEATHER SYSTEM WILL MOVE
INTO THE REGION FROM THE GREAT BASIN LATE WEDNESDAY THROUGH
FRIDAY...USHERING IN COOLER TEMPERATURES AND INCREASING WINDS. DRY
CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH CONTINUED ABOVE
NORMAL TEMPERATURES WITH DAYTIME HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S TO LOW 90S.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
MUCH CLEARER SKIES NOTED ON WATER VAPOR/IR IMAGERY THIS EARLY AM
ACROSS SOUTHEAST CA AND SOUTH-CENTRAL AZ. ONLY SOME POCKETS OF CU
STILL OBSERVED OVER EASTERN GILA COUNTY WITH MORE WIDESPREAD CU AND
CIRRUS FIELDS ACROSS SOUTHEAST AZ THIS AM. ANY LINGERING RADAR
RETURNS ON KEMX (TUCSON WX RADAR) ARE SOUTH OF THE BORDER CLOSER TO
THE PVU AND DYNAMICS OF THE CUT-OFF LOW NOW OVER THE BAJA SPUR. EVEN
A FEW STRIKES OF LIGHTNING HAVE BEEN NOTED ALONG THE SONORA/CHIHUAHUA
BORDER FROM MORE ORGANIZED SHOWER/THUNDERSHOWER ACTIVITY EMBEDDED IN
THE HEART OF TROPICAL MOISTURE PLUME AND SATELLITE DERIVED UPPER JET
MAXIMA. THE CUT-OFF WILL CONTINUE A SLOW TRACK EASTWARD OVER NORTHERN
MEXICO THROUGH THE DAY...TRANSLATING ADDITIONAL SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY FURTHER TO THE EAST ACROSS NM/WEST TX BY THE AFTERNOON.

ADDITIONAL WEAK SHORTWAVE TRACKING ALONG THE NORTHERN AZ
BORDER WILL MOVE THROUGH WITH LITTLE IMPACT TO OUR FORECAST
AREA...SAVE FOR SOME PERIODS OF PASSING HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS POSSIBLY
SETTING UP ANOTHER GORGEOUS SOUTHWEST SUNSET LATER TODAY.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE A FEW DEGREES COOLER THAN THE PAST FEW
AFTERNOONS...BUT STILL FLIRT WITH RECORDS AT LEAST IN PHOENIX TODAY.
RECORD HIGH FOR THIS DAY IS 94F (2012) AND THAT IS WHAT WE ARE
CURRENTLY FORECASTING. YUMA-EL CENTRO-BLYTHE CAN LOOK FOR MID 90S
AGAIN AS WELL...WHILE THE HIGHER TERRAIN LOCALES OF GLOBE AND JTNP
CAN LOOK FOR DAYTIME HIGHS IN THE 80S.

OPERATIONAL AND ENSEMBLE HEIGHT FORECASTS ARE IN THE GOOD AGREEMENT
THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEKEND...ADVERTISING MOSTLY ZONAL FLOW
ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST STATES. PASSING GREAT BASIN SHORTWAVE FROM THE
NORTHERN STORM TRACK WILL CLIP NORTHERN AZ THURSDAY BRINGING IN SOME
DRIER AIR AND MILD CAA INTO THE REGION...PARTICULARLY ALONG AND
THROUGH THE CO RIVER VALLEY. IN ADDITION...UL JET STREAK MOVING OFF
THE EASTERN PACIFIC AS PART OF THE SOUTHERN STORM TRACK WILL HELP
ENHANCE WINDS ALONG THE BASE OF THE TROUGH...RESULTING IN BREEZY TO
LOCALLY WINDY CONDITIONS THURSDAY. MAIN IMPACTS FROM THIS SYSTEM FOR
THURSDAY WILL BE WINDY CONDITIONS...COOLER TEMPERATURES AND CRASHING
DEWPOINT READINGS. THE COMBINATION OF STRONG WINDS AND LOW RHS (WITH
MANY OF THE WESTERN FIRE DISTRICTS IN OUR FORECAST AREA IN THE SINGLE
DIGITS) MAY LEAD TO CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS DURING THE DAY
THURSDAY. CURRENT WIND SPEED FORECASTS DO NOT SUPPORT WIDESPREAD
AREAL CONCERNS...BUT CONDITIONS MAY BE REALIZED IN LOCALIZED POCKETS.
WILL HIGHLIGHT THE FIRE WX CONCERNS WITH A HEADLINE IN THE FIRE
WEATHER FORECAST PRODUCT (FWFPSR) AT THIS TIME.

AFTER THE LATE WEEK SHORTWAVE CLEARS THE REGION...BROAD TROUGH
HEIGHTS/SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW REMAIN OVER MUCH OF THE WESTERN CONUS
THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. OPERATIONAL GFS/ECMWF SOLNS ADVERTISE
A LARGE SHORTWAVE MOVING OFF THE PACIFIC LATE SUNDAY/EARLY
MONDAY...HOWEVER THEIR ENSEMBLE (GEFS/NAEFS/ECENS) COUNTERPARTS DO
LITLE TO INSPIRE CONFIDENCE IN THE EVOLUTION OF THAT SYSTEM.
BROADBRUSH FORECAST WILL HOLD THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK OF CONTINUED DRY CONDITIONS AND SLIGHTLY ABOVE-CLIMO
TEMPERATURES.

&&

.CLIMATE...

RECORD HIGHS THIS WEEK...

CITY        MARCH 31
--------    --------
PHOENIX     94 IN 2012
YUMA        100 IN 2011

&&

.AVIATION...
SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA INCLUDING KPHX...KIWA...AND KSDL...AND
SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA AND SOUTHWEST ARIZONA INCLUDING KIPL AND KBLH...

WEAK LOW PRESSURE PASSING WELL TO OUR SOUTH IS PUSHING SCT-BKN MID-
HIGH LEVEL CIGS OVER THE PHX AREA THIS AFTERNOON. THESE CIGS ARE
EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH THIS EVENING...THEN BECOME FEW-SCT LATE
TONIGHT AND ON TUES AS THE AFOREMENTIONED LOW MOVES OFF TO THE EAST.
MAINLY CLEAR SKIES TO PREVAIL OVER THE SE CA TERMINALS THROUGH THE
TAF PERIOD. LIGHT WINDS TONIGHT AND EARLY TUESDAY ARE EXPECTED TO
PICK UP FROM THE SOUTHWEST AT THE PHX AREA TERMINALS AND AT
KIPL...AND PICK UP FROM THE SOUTH AT KBLH ON TUES AFTERNOON AS
ANOTHER WEATHER DISTURBANCE APPROACHING FROM THE WEST BEGINS TO
TIGHTEN SFC PRESSURE GRADIENTS OVER THE REGION...WITH SUSTAINED WINDS
RISING INTO THE 12-15KT RANGE BY LATE AFTERNOON ON TUESDAY AT ALL OF
THE TAF SITES.

AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDED TAFS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...
A SERIES OF WEAK PACIFIC WEATHER DISTURBANCES WILL MOVE ACROSS THE
WESTERN STATES JUST NORTH OF AZ...RESULTING IN CONSIDERABLE HIGH
CLOUDS AT TIMES WITH A COOLING TREND. ONE DISTURBANCE
THURSDAY/THURSDAY NIGHT WILL PRODUCE GUSTY NORTH WINDS 20 TO 30 MPH
IN SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA AND THE COLORADO RIVER VALLEY...STRONGEST
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY AFTERNOONS. GUSTY NORTH WINDS AND MINIMUM
RELATIVE HUMIDITIES IN THE 5 PERCENT RANGE MAY LEAD TO FIRE WEATHER
CONCERNS THURSDAY AND FRIDAY AFTERNOONS IN SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA AND
THE COLORADO RIVER VALLEY. OTHERWISE MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITIES WILL
REMAIN IN THE FIVE PERCENT RANGE THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD FRIDAY
THROUGH SUNDAY. OVERNIGHT RECOVERY WILL BE GOOD EXCEPT FOR THE BREEZY
PERIOD THURSDAY NIGHT.

&&

.PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AZ...NONE.
CA...NONE.
&&

$$

VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/PHOENIX

DISCUSSION...NOLTE
CLIMATE...NOLTE/MO
AVIATION....PERCHA
FIRE WEATHER...VASQUEZ



000
FXUS65 KTWC 310423
AFDTWC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ
923 PM MST MON MAR 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...DRY CONDITIONS WITH WELL ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES WILL
THEN PREVAIL INTO THE UPCOMING WEEKEND. GUSTY WINDS AT TIMES DURING
THE LATTER PART OF THIS WEEK...ESPECIALLY THURSDAY...AS A SYSTEM
MOVES NORTH OF THE AREA.

&&

.DISCUSSION...WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A MEAN TROUGH AXIS FROM NW
ARIZONA THROUGH THE WESTERN PART OF THE STATE AND EXTENDING ACROSS
THE NORTHERN BAJA PENINSULA AND SOUTH OF THE BAJA SPUR. A COUPLE OF
VORT MAXIMA WITHIN THIS TROUGH...ONE OVER NORTHWEST ARIZONA AND
ANOTHER SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST OF THE BAJA SPUR.

IR IMAGERY SHOWS CLOUDINESS ASSOCIATED WITH THESE SYSTEMS OVER
MAINLY EASTERN PORTIONS OF ARIZONA AND UTAH...AS WELL AS MUCH OF NEW
MEXICO AND NORTHERN MEXICO INTO WEST TEXAS. CLEAR SKIES GENERALLY
WEST TO NORTHWEST OF A LINE FROM AJO TO CASA GRANDE TO GLOBE. WILL
MAKE SOME ADJUSTMENTS TO LOWER THE POP FORECAST FOR THE REMAINDER OF
THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD...SINCE THE WEAK LIGHT SHOWERS/VIRGA THAT
DEVELOPED EARLIER THIS AFTERNOON HAVE MOSTLY DISSIPATED.

AS OF 04Z (9 PM MST)...TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE REGION RANGED FROM
THE UPPER 60S AT SAFFORD TO 80 DEGS AT TUCSON. A RECORD HIGH
TEMPERATURE WAS BROKEN AGAIN TODAY AT THE TUCSON INTL AIRPORT. THE
HIGH TODAY WAS 93 DEGS. THE OLD RECORD WAS 92 DEGS SET BACK IN 1950.
AT ANY RATE...THE CURRENT TEMPS SEEM TO BE ON TRACK WITH THE
INHERITED OVERNIGHT LOW TEMP FORECASTS...BUT WILL CONTINUE TO
MONITOR AND WILL MAKE CHANGES IF NEEDED.

FOR DETAILS REGARDING THE FORECAST BEYOND TONIGHT...PLEASE REFER TO
THE PREVIOUS DISCUSSION BELOW.

&&

.AVIATION...VALID THRU 01/06Z.
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. ISOLATED SHOWERS
POSSIBLY PRODUCING GUSTY WINDS AND VERY LIGHT RAIN WILL BE CONTINUE
TO OCCUR...GENERALLY CLOSE TO HIGHER TERRAIN THROUGH AROUND 06Z.
WINDS WILL BE SOMEWHAT GUSTY FROM A SOUTHWEST THROUGH NORTHWEST
DIRECTION IN A FEW PLACES THIS EVENING...BUT WILL RAPIDLY DROP OFF
AFTER MIDNIGHT. WINDS ARE ANTICIPATED TO BE ON THE GUSTY SIDE
TUESDAY AFTERNOON AS WELL. AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR TAF
AMENDMENTS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...DRY CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE WEEK.
ISOLATED SHOWERS WILL BE CONTINUE TO BE POSSIBLE THIS EVENING WITH
STRONG WIND GUSTS IN THE VICINITY OF ANY THAT DEVELOP. ANY SHOWER
ACTIVITY WILL WANE AFTER MIDNIGHT. GUSTY AFTERNOON WINDS FROM THE
WEST TO NORTHWEST WILL BE IN THE FORECAST EACH AFTERNOON TUESDAY
THROUGH THURSDAY. WINDS WILL BE ESPECIALLY GUSTY WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY. RH VALUES ARE EXPECTED TO DROP INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS AND
COMBINE WITH THE WINDS TO CREATE NEAR CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER
CONDITIONS FOR ISOLATED AREAS WEDNESDAY...AND FOR MORE WIDESPREAD
AREAS THURSDAY AFTERNOON. CURRENT SURFACE FUEL CONDITIONS WILL
LIKELY LIMIT ANY MAJOR FIRE ACTIVITY. HOWEVER...AREAS WITH MAINLY
DRY GRASS FUELS COULD SEE THE POTENTIAL FOR SIGNIFICANT FIRE
ACTIVITY. DRY CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THEREAFTER INTO THE EARLY PART
OF THE WEEKEND...WITH WINDS EXPECTED TO SLACKEN FRIDAY INTO EARLY
SATURDAY.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...STILL SOME RESIDUAL LOWER LEVEL MOISTURE TO WORK
INTO MOUNTAIN CU FIELDS AND A FEW BUILDUPS IN THE EASTERN MOUNTAINS
TUESDAY AFTERNOON.

AS A TRANSITION MONTH, APRIL IS USUALLY A SOLID CONTRIBUTOR TO FIRE
WEATHER SEASON. WITH THAT IN MIND, TROUGHINESS IS DEVELOPING THROUGH
MOST OF THE CONUS WEST OF THE MISSISSIPPI THE SECOND HALF OF THE
WEEK. SURE ENOUGH MOST OF THE ENERGY AND COOL AIR WILL BE SLATED FOR
CENTRAL AND NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE WEST. FOR US EXPECT A NEARLY
ZONAL FLOW WITH ENOUGH HEIGHT AND THICKNESS FALLS TO PUSH OUR
TEMPERATURES BACK A FEW DEGREES CLOSER TO CLIMATOLOGY THE SECOND
HALF OF THE WEEK. MORE NOTABLY, EXPECT STRONG GUSTY WINDS AT TIMES
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON INTO FRIDAY. STRONGEST WINDS FOR OUR PART OF THE
STATE ARE EXPECTED THURSDAY. PROBABLY BELOW WIND ADVISORY LEVELS,
BUT IT COULD PUSH INTO WIDESPREAD CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER TERRITORY
THURSDAY. PLEASE SEE THE FIRE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR DETAILS.

A LOW AMPLITUDE, LONG PERIOD RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN TAKE
US INTO NEXT WEEKEND. DRY WITH TEMPERATURES WELL ABOVE AVERAGE.

&&

.TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...YOUTUBE...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/TUCSON

CURRENT DISCUSSION...MOLLERE
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...MEYER/CANTIN






000
FXUS65 KTWC 310423
AFDTWC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ
923 PM MST MON MAR 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...DRY CONDITIONS WITH WELL ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES WILL
THEN PREVAIL INTO THE UPCOMING WEEKEND. GUSTY WINDS AT TIMES DURING
THE LATTER PART OF THIS WEEK...ESPECIALLY THURSDAY...AS A SYSTEM
MOVES NORTH OF THE AREA.

&&

.DISCUSSION...WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A MEAN TROUGH AXIS FROM NW
ARIZONA THROUGH THE WESTERN PART OF THE STATE AND EXTENDING ACROSS
THE NORTHERN BAJA PENINSULA AND SOUTH OF THE BAJA SPUR. A COUPLE OF
VORT MAXIMA WITHIN THIS TROUGH...ONE OVER NORTHWEST ARIZONA AND
ANOTHER SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST OF THE BAJA SPUR.

IR IMAGERY SHOWS CLOUDINESS ASSOCIATED WITH THESE SYSTEMS OVER
MAINLY EASTERN PORTIONS OF ARIZONA AND UTAH...AS WELL AS MUCH OF NEW
MEXICO AND NORTHERN MEXICO INTO WEST TEXAS. CLEAR SKIES GENERALLY
WEST TO NORTHWEST OF A LINE FROM AJO TO CASA GRANDE TO GLOBE. WILL
MAKE SOME ADJUSTMENTS TO LOWER THE POP FORECAST FOR THE REMAINDER OF
THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD...SINCE THE WEAK LIGHT SHOWERS/VIRGA THAT
DEVELOPED EARLIER THIS AFTERNOON HAVE MOSTLY DISSIPATED.

AS OF 04Z (9 PM MST)...TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE REGION RANGED FROM
THE UPPER 60S AT SAFFORD TO 80 DEGS AT TUCSON. A RECORD HIGH
TEMPERATURE WAS BROKEN AGAIN TODAY AT THE TUCSON INTL AIRPORT. THE
HIGH TODAY WAS 93 DEGS. THE OLD RECORD WAS 92 DEGS SET BACK IN 1950.
AT ANY RATE...THE CURRENT TEMPS SEEM TO BE ON TRACK WITH THE
INHERITED OVERNIGHT LOW TEMP FORECASTS...BUT WILL CONTINUE TO
MONITOR AND WILL MAKE CHANGES IF NEEDED.

FOR DETAILS REGARDING THE FORECAST BEYOND TONIGHT...PLEASE REFER TO
THE PREVIOUS DISCUSSION BELOW.

&&

.AVIATION...VALID THRU 01/06Z.
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. ISOLATED SHOWERS
POSSIBLY PRODUCING GUSTY WINDS AND VERY LIGHT RAIN WILL BE CONTINUE
TO OCCUR...GENERALLY CLOSE TO HIGHER TERRAIN THROUGH AROUND 06Z.
WINDS WILL BE SOMEWHAT GUSTY FROM A SOUTHWEST THROUGH NORTHWEST
DIRECTION IN A FEW PLACES THIS EVENING...BUT WILL RAPIDLY DROP OFF
AFTER MIDNIGHT. WINDS ARE ANTICIPATED TO BE ON THE GUSTY SIDE
TUESDAY AFTERNOON AS WELL. AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR TAF
AMENDMENTS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...DRY CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE WEEK.
ISOLATED SHOWERS WILL BE CONTINUE TO BE POSSIBLE THIS EVENING WITH
STRONG WIND GUSTS IN THE VICINITY OF ANY THAT DEVELOP. ANY SHOWER
ACTIVITY WILL WANE AFTER MIDNIGHT. GUSTY AFTERNOON WINDS FROM THE
WEST TO NORTHWEST WILL BE IN THE FORECAST EACH AFTERNOON TUESDAY
THROUGH THURSDAY. WINDS WILL BE ESPECIALLY GUSTY WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY. RH VALUES ARE EXPECTED TO DROP INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS AND
COMBINE WITH THE WINDS TO CREATE NEAR CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER
CONDITIONS FOR ISOLATED AREAS WEDNESDAY...AND FOR MORE WIDESPREAD
AREAS THURSDAY AFTERNOON. CURRENT SURFACE FUEL CONDITIONS WILL
LIKELY LIMIT ANY MAJOR FIRE ACTIVITY. HOWEVER...AREAS WITH MAINLY
DRY GRASS FUELS COULD SEE THE POTENTIAL FOR SIGNIFICANT FIRE
ACTIVITY. DRY CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THEREAFTER INTO THE EARLY PART
OF THE WEEKEND...WITH WINDS EXPECTED TO SLACKEN FRIDAY INTO EARLY
SATURDAY.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...STILL SOME RESIDUAL LOWER LEVEL MOISTURE TO WORK
INTO MOUNTAIN CU FIELDS AND A FEW BUILDUPS IN THE EASTERN MOUNTAINS
TUESDAY AFTERNOON.

AS A TRANSITION MONTH, APRIL IS USUALLY A SOLID CONTRIBUTOR TO FIRE
WEATHER SEASON. WITH THAT IN MIND, TROUGHINESS IS DEVELOPING THROUGH
MOST OF THE CONUS WEST OF THE MISSISSIPPI THE SECOND HALF OF THE
WEEK. SURE ENOUGH MOST OF THE ENERGY AND COOL AIR WILL BE SLATED FOR
CENTRAL AND NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE WEST. FOR US EXPECT A NEARLY
ZONAL FLOW WITH ENOUGH HEIGHT AND THICKNESS FALLS TO PUSH OUR
TEMPERATURES BACK A FEW DEGREES CLOSER TO CLIMATOLOGY THE SECOND
HALF OF THE WEEK. MORE NOTABLY, EXPECT STRONG GUSTY WINDS AT TIMES
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON INTO FRIDAY. STRONGEST WINDS FOR OUR PART OF THE
STATE ARE EXPECTED THURSDAY. PROBABLY BELOW WIND ADVISORY LEVELS,
BUT IT COULD PUSH INTO WIDESPREAD CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER TERRITORY
THURSDAY. PLEASE SEE THE FIRE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR DETAILS.

A LOW AMPLITUDE, LONG PERIOD RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN TAKE
US INTO NEXT WEEKEND. DRY WITH TEMPERATURES WELL ABOVE AVERAGE.

&&

.TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...YOUTUBE...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/TUCSON

CURRENT DISCUSSION...MOLLERE
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...MEYER/CANTIN







000
FXUS65 KTWC 310423
AFDTWC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ
923 PM MST MON MAR 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...DRY CONDITIONS WITH WELL ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES WILL
THEN PREVAIL INTO THE UPCOMING WEEKEND. GUSTY WINDS AT TIMES DURING
THE LATTER PART OF THIS WEEK...ESPECIALLY THURSDAY...AS A SYSTEM
MOVES NORTH OF THE AREA.

&&

.DISCUSSION...WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A MEAN TROUGH AXIS FROM NW
ARIZONA THROUGH THE WESTERN PART OF THE STATE AND EXTENDING ACROSS
THE NORTHERN BAJA PENINSULA AND SOUTH OF THE BAJA SPUR. A COUPLE OF
VORT MAXIMA WITHIN THIS TROUGH...ONE OVER NORTHWEST ARIZONA AND
ANOTHER SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST OF THE BAJA SPUR.

IR IMAGERY SHOWS CLOUDINESS ASSOCIATED WITH THESE SYSTEMS OVER
MAINLY EASTERN PORTIONS OF ARIZONA AND UTAH...AS WELL AS MUCH OF NEW
MEXICO AND NORTHERN MEXICO INTO WEST TEXAS. CLEAR SKIES GENERALLY
WEST TO NORTHWEST OF A LINE FROM AJO TO CASA GRANDE TO GLOBE. WILL
MAKE SOME ADJUSTMENTS TO LOWER THE POP FORECAST FOR THE REMAINDER OF
THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD...SINCE THE WEAK LIGHT SHOWERS/VIRGA THAT
DEVELOPED EARLIER THIS AFTERNOON HAVE MOSTLY DISSIPATED.

AS OF 04Z (9 PM MST)...TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE REGION RANGED FROM
THE UPPER 60S AT SAFFORD TO 80 DEGS AT TUCSON. A RECORD HIGH
TEMPERATURE WAS BROKEN AGAIN TODAY AT THE TUCSON INTL AIRPORT. THE
HIGH TODAY WAS 93 DEGS. THE OLD RECORD WAS 92 DEGS SET BACK IN 1950.
AT ANY RATE...THE CURRENT TEMPS SEEM TO BE ON TRACK WITH THE
INHERITED OVERNIGHT LOW TEMP FORECASTS...BUT WILL CONTINUE TO
MONITOR AND WILL MAKE CHANGES IF NEEDED.

FOR DETAILS REGARDING THE FORECAST BEYOND TONIGHT...PLEASE REFER TO
THE PREVIOUS DISCUSSION BELOW.

&&

.AVIATION...VALID THRU 01/06Z.
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. ISOLATED SHOWERS
POSSIBLY PRODUCING GUSTY WINDS AND VERY LIGHT RAIN WILL BE CONTINUE
TO OCCUR...GENERALLY CLOSE TO HIGHER TERRAIN THROUGH AROUND 06Z.
WINDS WILL BE SOMEWHAT GUSTY FROM A SOUTHWEST THROUGH NORTHWEST
DIRECTION IN A FEW PLACES THIS EVENING...BUT WILL RAPIDLY DROP OFF
AFTER MIDNIGHT. WINDS ARE ANTICIPATED TO BE ON THE GUSTY SIDE
TUESDAY AFTERNOON AS WELL. AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR TAF
AMENDMENTS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...DRY CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE WEEK.
ISOLATED SHOWERS WILL BE CONTINUE TO BE POSSIBLE THIS EVENING WITH
STRONG WIND GUSTS IN THE VICINITY OF ANY THAT DEVELOP. ANY SHOWER
ACTIVITY WILL WANE AFTER MIDNIGHT. GUSTY AFTERNOON WINDS FROM THE
WEST TO NORTHWEST WILL BE IN THE FORECAST EACH AFTERNOON TUESDAY
THROUGH THURSDAY. WINDS WILL BE ESPECIALLY GUSTY WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY. RH VALUES ARE EXPECTED TO DROP INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS AND
COMBINE WITH THE WINDS TO CREATE NEAR CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER
CONDITIONS FOR ISOLATED AREAS WEDNESDAY...AND FOR MORE WIDESPREAD
AREAS THURSDAY AFTERNOON. CURRENT SURFACE FUEL CONDITIONS WILL
LIKELY LIMIT ANY MAJOR FIRE ACTIVITY. HOWEVER...AREAS WITH MAINLY
DRY GRASS FUELS COULD SEE THE POTENTIAL FOR SIGNIFICANT FIRE
ACTIVITY. DRY CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THEREAFTER INTO THE EARLY PART
OF THE WEEKEND...WITH WINDS EXPECTED TO SLACKEN FRIDAY INTO EARLY
SATURDAY.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...STILL SOME RESIDUAL LOWER LEVEL MOISTURE TO WORK
INTO MOUNTAIN CU FIELDS AND A FEW BUILDUPS IN THE EASTERN MOUNTAINS
TUESDAY AFTERNOON.

AS A TRANSITION MONTH, APRIL IS USUALLY A SOLID CONTRIBUTOR TO FIRE
WEATHER SEASON. WITH THAT IN MIND, TROUGHINESS IS DEVELOPING THROUGH
MOST OF THE CONUS WEST OF THE MISSISSIPPI THE SECOND HALF OF THE
WEEK. SURE ENOUGH MOST OF THE ENERGY AND COOL AIR WILL BE SLATED FOR
CENTRAL AND NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE WEST. FOR US EXPECT A NEARLY
ZONAL FLOW WITH ENOUGH HEIGHT AND THICKNESS FALLS TO PUSH OUR
TEMPERATURES BACK A FEW DEGREES CLOSER TO CLIMATOLOGY THE SECOND
HALF OF THE WEEK. MORE NOTABLY, EXPECT STRONG GUSTY WINDS AT TIMES
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON INTO FRIDAY. STRONGEST WINDS FOR OUR PART OF THE
STATE ARE EXPECTED THURSDAY. PROBABLY BELOW WIND ADVISORY LEVELS,
BUT IT COULD PUSH INTO WIDESPREAD CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER TERRITORY
THURSDAY. PLEASE SEE THE FIRE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR DETAILS.

A LOW AMPLITUDE, LONG PERIOD RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN TAKE
US INTO NEXT WEEKEND. DRY WITH TEMPERATURES WELL ABOVE AVERAGE.

&&

.TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...YOUTUBE...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/TUCSON

CURRENT DISCUSSION...MOLLERE
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...MEYER/CANTIN






000
FXUS65 KTWC 310423
AFDTWC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ
923 PM MST MON MAR 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...DRY CONDITIONS WITH WELL ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES WILL
THEN PREVAIL INTO THE UPCOMING WEEKEND. GUSTY WINDS AT TIMES DURING
THE LATTER PART OF THIS WEEK...ESPECIALLY THURSDAY...AS A SYSTEM
MOVES NORTH OF THE AREA.

&&

.DISCUSSION...WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A MEAN TROUGH AXIS FROM NW
ARIZONA THROUGH THE WESTERN PART OF THE STATE AND EXTENDING ACROSS
THE NORTHERN BAJA PENINSULA AND SOUTH OF THE BAJA SPUR. A COUPLE OF
VORT MAXIMA WITHIN THIS TROUGH...ONE OVER NORTHWEST ARIZONA AND
ANOTHER SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST OF THE BAJA SPUR.

IR IMAGERY SHOWS CLOUDINESS ASSOCIATED WITH THESE SYSTEMS OVER
MAINLY EASTERN PORTIONS OF ARIZONA AND UTAH...AS WELL AS MUCH OF NEW
MEXICO AND NORTHERN MEXICO INTO WEST TEXAS. CLEAR SKIES GENERALLY
WEST TO NORTHWEST OF A LINE FROM AJO TO CASA GRANDE TO GLOBE. WILL
MAKE SOME ADJUSTMENTS TO LOWER THE POP FORECAST FOR THE REMAINDER OF
THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD...SINCE THE WEAK LIGHT SHOWERS/VIRGA THAT
DEVELOPED EARLIER THIS AFTERNOON HAVE MOSTLY DISSIPATED.

AS OF 04Z (9 PM MST)...TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE REGION RANGED FROM
THE UPPER 60S AT SAFFORD TO 80 DEGS AT TUCSON. A RECORD HIGH
TEMPERATURE WAS BROKEN AGAIN TODAY AT THE TUCSON INTL AIRPORT. THE
HIGH TODAY WAS 93 DEGS. THE OLD RECORD WAS 92 DEGS SET BACK IN 1950.
AT ANY RATE...THE CURRENT TEMPS SEEM TO BE ON TRACK WITH THE
INHERITED OVERNIGHT LOW TEMP FORECASTS...BUT WILL CONTINUE TO
MONITOR AND WILL MAKE CHANGES IF NEEDED.

FOR DETAILS REGARDING THE FORECAST BEYOND TONIGHT...PLEASE REFER TO
THE PREVIOUS DISCUSSION BELOW.

&&

.AVIATION...VALID THRU 01/06Z.
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. ISOLATED SHOWERS
POSSIBLY PRODUCING GUSTY WINDS AND VERY LIGHT RAIN WILL BE CONTINUE
TO OCCUR...GENERALLY CLOSE TO HIGHER TERRAIN THROUGH AROUND 06Z.
WINDS WILL BE SOMEWHAT GUSTY FROM A SOUTHWEST THROUGH NORTHWEST
DIRECTION IN A FEW PLACES THIS EVENING...BUT WILL RAPIDLY DROP OFF
AFTER MIDNIGHT. WINDS ARE ANTICIPATED TO BE ON THE GUSTY SIDE
TUESDAY AFTERNOON AS WELL. AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR TAF
AMENDMENTS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...DRY CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE WEEK.
ISOLATED SHOWERS WILL BE CONTINUE TO BE POSSIBLE THIS EVENING WITH
STRONG WIND GUSTS IN THE VICINITY OF ANY THAT DEVELOP. ANY SHOWER
ACTIVITY WILL WANE AFTER MIDNIGHT. GUSTY AFTERNOON WINDS FROM THE
WEST TO NORTHWEST WILL BE IN THE FORECAST EACH AFTERNOON TUESDAY
THROUGH THURSDAY. WINDS WILL BE ESPECIALLY GUSTY WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY. RH VALUES ARE EXPECTED TO DROP INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS AND
COMBINE WITH THE WINDS TO CREATE NEAR CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER
CONDITIONS FOR ISOLATED AREAS WEDNESDAY...AND FOR MORE WIDESPREAD
AREAS THURSDAY AFTERNOON. CURRENT SURFACE FUEL CONDITIONS WILL
LIKELY LIMIT ANY MAJOR FIRE ACTIVITY. HOWEVER...AREAS WITH MAINLY
DRY GRASS FUELS COULD SEE THE POTENTIAL FOR SIGNIFICANT FIRE
ACTIVITY. DRY CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THEREAFTER INTO THE EARLY PART
OF THE WEEKEND...WITH WINDS EXPECTED TO SLACKEN FRIDAY INTO EARLY
SATURDAY.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...STILL SOME RESIDUAL LOWER LEVEL MOISTURE TO WORK
INTO MOUNTAIN CU FIELDS AND A FEW BUILDUPS IN THE EASTERN MOUNTAINS
TUESDAY AFTERNOON.

AS A TRANSITION MONTH, APRIL IS USUALLY A SOLID CONTRIBUTOR TO FIRE
WEATHER SEASON. WITH THAT IN MIND, TROUGHINESS IS DEVELOPING THROUGH
MOST OF THE CONUS WEST OF THE MISSISSIPPI THE SECOND HALF OF THE
WEEK. SURE ENOUGH MOST OF THE ENERGY AND COOL AIR WILL BE SLATED FOR
CENTRAL AND NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE WEST. FOR US EXPECT A NEARLY
ZONAL FLOW WITH ENOUGH HEIGHT AND THICKNESS FALLS TO PUSH OUR
TEMPERATURES BACK A FEW DEGREES CLOSER TO CLIMATOLOGY THE SECOND
HALF OF THE WEEK. MORE NOTABLY, EXPECT STRONG GUSTY WINDS AT TIMES
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON INTO FRIDAY. STRONGEST WINDS FOR OUR PART OF THE
STATE ARE EXPECTED THURSDAY. PROBABLY BELOW WIND ADVISORY LEVELS,
BUT IT COULD PUSH INTO WIDESPREAD CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER TERRITORY
THURSDAY. PLEASE SEE THE FIRE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR DETAILS.

A LOW AMPLITUDE, LONG PERIOD RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN TAKE
US INTO NEXT WEEKEND. DRY WITH TEMPERATURES WELL ABOVE AVERAGE.

&&

.TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...YOUTUBE...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/TUCSON

CURRENT DISCUSSION...MOLLERE
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...MEYER/CANTIN







000
FXUS65 KFGZ 310352
AFDFGZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ
850 PM MST MON MAR 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE WITH A GRADUAL
COOLING TREND FORECAST THROUGH THE WEEK. THE MAIN IMPACT DURING THE
NEXT SEVEN DAYS WILL BE THE RETURN OF GUSTY SPRINGTIME WINDS ON
WEDNESDAY...THURSDAY AND SUNDAY. DRY HUMIDITY LEVELS AND STRONG
WINDS MAY CREATE CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ON THURSDAY.
BREEZY SPRING WINDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEKEND.

&&

.DISCUSSION...HIGH-BASED CONVECTION DEVELOPED OVER THE HIGHER
TERRAIN FROM AROUND FLAGSTAFF NORTHWARD THIS AFTERNOON BUT HAS
MOSTLY DISSIPATED THIS EVENING. THIS ACTIVITY WAS AIDED BY COOL MID
LEVEL TEMPERATURES ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAK SHORTWAVE APPROACHING THE
AREA. OTHERWISE IT WAS ANOTHER WARM ONE AROUND THE REGION WITH A FEW
NEW RECORDS SET...INCLUDING PAGE...SELIGMAN AND THE NORTH RIM OF THE
GRAND CANYON.

.PREV DISCUSSION...WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL BRING DRY AND WINDY
CONDITIONS TO NORTHERN ARIZONA OVER THE NEXT SEVEN DAY FORECAST
PERIOD. EXPECT A GRADUAL COOLING TREND THIS WEEK WITH STRONG GUSTY
WINDS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND THURSDAY AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD
FRONT MOVING THROUGH UTAH.

THE LATEST FORECAST GUIDANCE SHOWS THIS COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO
ARIZONA ON THURSDAY MORNING WITH STRONG GUSTY WINDS ALONG AND AHEAD
OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY. THERE WILL BE NO PRECIPITATION WITH THIS
DRY FRONTAL PASSAGE. BREEZY SPRING WINDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE
UPCOMING WEEKEND WITH THE STRONGEST WINDS FORECAST ON SUNDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 06Z PACKAGE...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO
PERSIST THROUGHOUT THE NEXT TWENTY-FOUR HOURS. A SLIGHT CHANCE OF A
LIGHT SHOWER CONTINUES THROUGH 08Z NE OF A KPGA-KINW-KSJN LINE...THEN A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF -TSRA OVER THE WHITE MTNS TUE AFTERNOON. GUSTY SW
WINDS EXPECTED TUE AFTERNOON. AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR
TAF AMENDMENTS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...EXPECT INCREASING WIND SPEEDS EACH AFTERNOON ON
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY AS A LOW PRESSURE TROUGH DEVELOPS TO THE NORTH
AND WEST OF ARIZONA. BY WEDNESDAY...PORTIONS OF THE LITTLE COLORADO
RIVER VALLEY AND THE COCONINO PLATEAU MAY MEASURE 20 FOOT WINDS OF
20 MPH OR A LITTLE GREATER. MINIMUM RH VALUES WILL DROP TO AROUND 10
PERCENT IN THE LOWER ELEVATIONS BY WEDNESDAY.

THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...STRONG AND GUSTY WEST WINDS ALONG WITH
SINGLE DIGIT MINIMUM AFTERNOON RH VALUES ARE EXPECTED AT LOWER
ELEVATIONS THURSDAY AFTERNOON AS A DRY COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH
NORTHERN ARIZONA. CONTINUED LOW RH VALUES ARE EXPECTED ON FRIDAY
AND SATURDAY AFTERNOONS...WITH MUCH LIGHTER WIND SPEEDS.

&&

.FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC.........JJ/BOHLIN
AVIATION.......JJ
FIRE WEATHER...AT

FOR NORTHERN ARIZONA WEATHER INFORMATION VISIT
WEATHER.GOV/FLAGSTAFF






000
FXUS65 KFGZ 310352
AFDFGZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ
850 PM MST MON MAR 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE WITH A GRADUAL
COOLING TREND FORECAST THROUGH THE WEEK. THE MAIN IMPACT DURING THE
NEXT SEVEN DAYS WILL BE THE RETURN OF GUSTY SPRINGTIME WINDS ON
WEDNESDAY...THURSDAY AND SUNDAY. DRY HUMIDITY LEVELS AND STRONG
WINDS MAY CREATE CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ON THURSDAY.
BREEZY SPRING WINDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEKEND.

&&

.DISCUSSION...HIGH-BASED CONVECTION DEVELOPED OVER THE HIGHER
TERRAIN FROM AROUND FLAGSTAFF NORTHWARD THIS AFTERNOON BUT HAS
MOSTLY DISSIPATED THIS EVENING. THIS ACTIVITY WAS AIDED BY COOL MID
LEVEL TEMPERATURES ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAK SHORTWAVE APPROACHING THE
AREA. OTHERWISE IT WAS ANOTHER WARM ONE AROUND THE REGION WITH A FEW
NEW RECORDS SET...INCLUDING PAGE...SELIGMAN AND THE NORTH RIM OF THE
GRAND CANYON.

.PREV DISCUSSION...WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL BRING DRY AND WINDY
CONDITIONS TO NORTHERN ARIZONA OVER THE NEXT SEVEN DAY FORECAST
PERIOD. EXPECT A GRADUAL COOLING TREND THIS WEEK WITH STRONG GUSTY
WINDS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND THURSDAY AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD
FRONT MOVING THROUGH UTAH.

THE LATEST FORECAST GUIDANCE SHOWS THIS COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO
ARIZONA ON THURSDAY MORNING WITH STRONG GUSTY WINDS ALONG AND AHEAD
OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY. THERE WILL BE NO PRECIPITATION WITH THIS
DRY FRONTAL PASSAGE. BREEZY SPRING WINDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE
UPCOMING WEEKEND WITH THE STRONGEST WINDS FORECAST ON SUNDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 06Z PACKAGE...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO
PERSIST THROUGHOUT THE NEXT TWENTY-FOUR HOURS. A SLIGHT CHANCE OF A
LIGHT SHOWER CONTINUES THROUGH 08Z NE OF A KPGA-KINW-KSJN LINE...THEN A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF -TSRA OVER THE WHITE MTNS TUE AFTERNOON. GUSTY SW
WINDS EXPECTED TUE AFTERNOON. AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR
TAF AMENDMENTS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...EXPECT INCREASING WIND SPEEDS EACH AFTERNOON ON
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY AS A LOW PRESSURE TROUGH DEVELOPS TO THE NORTH
AND WEST OF ARIZONA. BY WEDNESDAY...PORTIONS OF THE LITTLE COLORADO
RIVER VALLEY AND THE COCONINO PLATEAU MAY MEASURE 20 FOOT WINDS OF
20 MPH OR A LITTLE GREATER. MINIMUM RH VALUES WILL DROP TO AROUND 10
PERCENT IN THE LOWER ELEVATIONS BY WEDNESDAY.

THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...STRONG AND GUSTY WEST WINDS ALONG WITH
SINGLE DIGIT MINIMUM AFTERNOON RH VALUES ARE EXPECTED AT LOWER
ELEVATIONS THURSDAY AFTERNOON AS A DRY COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH
NORTHERN ARIZONA. CONTINUED LOW RH VALUES ARE EXPECTED ON FRIDAY
AND SATURDAY AFTERNOONS...WITH MUCH LIGHTER WIND SPEEDS.

&&

.FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC.........JJ/BOHLIN
AVIATION.......JJ
FIRE WEATHER...AT

FOR NORTHERN ARIZONA WEATHER INFORMATION VISIT
WEATHER.GOV/FLAGSTAFF







000
FXUS65 KFGZ 310352
AFDFGZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ
850 PM MST MON MAR 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE WITH A GRADUAL
COOLING TREND FORECAST THROUGH THE WEEK. THE MAIN IMPACT DURING THE
NEXT SEVEN DAYS WILL BE THE RETURN OF GUSTY SPRINGTIME WINDS ON
WEDNESDAY...THURSDAY AND SUNDAY. DRY HUMIDITY LEVELS AND STRONG
WINDS MAY CREATE CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ON THURSDAY.
BREEZY SPRING WINDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEKEND.

&&

.DISCUSSION...HIGH-BASED CONVECTION DEVELOPED OVER THE HIGHER
TERRAIN FROM AROUND FLAGSTAFF NORTHWARD THIS AFTERNOON BUT HAS
MOSTLY DISSIPATED THIS EVENING. THIS ACTIVITY WAS AIDED BY COOL MID
LEVEL TEMPERATURES ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAK SHORTWAVE APPROACHING THE
AREA. OTHERWISE IT WAS ANOTHER WARM ONE AROUND THE REGION WITH A FEW
NEW RECORDS SET...INCLUDING PAGE...SELIGMAN AND THE NORTH RIM OF THE
GRAND CANYON.

.PREV DISCUSSION...WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL BRING DRY AND WINDY
CONDITIONS TO NORTHERN ARIZONA OVER THE NEXT SEVEN DAY FORECAST
PERIOD. EXPECT A GRADUAL COOLING TREND THIS WEEK WITH STRONG GUSTY
WINDS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND THURSDAY AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD
FRONT MOVING THROUGH UTAH.

THE LATEST FORECAST GUIDANCE SHOWS THIS COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO
ARIZONA ON THURSDAY MORNING WITH STRONG GUSTY WINDS ALONG AND AHEAD
OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY. THERE WILL BE NO PRECIPITATION WITH THIS
DRY FRONTAL PASSAGE. BREEZY SPRING WINDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE
UPCOMING WEEKEND WITH THE STRONGEST WINDS FORECAST ON SUNDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 06Z PACKAGE...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO
PERSIST THROUGHOUT THE NEXT TWENTY-FOUR HOURS. A SLIGHT CHANCE OF A
LIGHT SHOWER CONTINUES THROUGH 08Z NE OF A KPGA-KINW-KSJN LINE...THEN A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF -TSRA OVER THE WHITE MTNS TUE AFTERNOON. GUSTY SW
WINDS EXPECTED TUE AFTERNOON. AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR
TAF AMENDMENTS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...EXPECT INCREASING WIND SPEEDS EACH AFTERNOON ON
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY AS A LOW PRESSURE TROUGH DEVELOPS TO THE NORTH
AND WEST OF ARIZONA. BY WEDNESDAY...PORTIONS OF THE LITTLE COLORADO
RIVER VALLEY AND THE COCONINO PLATEAU MAY MEASURE 20 FOOT WINDS OF
20 MPH OR A LITTLE GREATER. MINIMUM RH VALUES WILL DROP TO AROUND 10
PERCENT IN THE LOWER ELEVATIONS BY WEDNESDAY.

THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...STRONG AND GUSTY WEST WINDS ALONG WITH
SINGLE DIGIT MINIMUM AFTERNOON RH VALUES ARE EXPECTED AT LOWER
ELEVATIONS THURSDAY AFTERNOON AS A DRY COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH
NORTHERN ARIZONA. CONTINUED LOW RH VALUES ARE EXPECTED ON FRIDAY
AND SATURDAY AFTERNOONS...WITH MUCH LIGHTER WIND SPEEDS.

&&

.FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC.........JJ/BOHLIN
AVIATION.......JJ
FIRE WEATHER...AT

FOR NORTHERN ARIZONA WEATHER INFORMATION VISIT
WEATHER.GOV/FLAGSTAFF







000
FXUS65 KFGZ 310352
AFDFGZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ
850 PM MST MON MAR 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE WITH A GRADUAL
COOLING TREND FORECAST THROUGH THE WEEK. THE MAIN IMPACT DURING THE
NEXT SEVEN DAYS WILL BE THE RETURN OF GUSTY SPRINGTIME WINDS ON
WEDNESDAY...THURSDAY AND SUNDAY. DRY HUMIDITY LEVELS AND STRONG
WINDS MAY CREATE CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ON THURSDAY.
BREEZY SPRING WINDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEKEND.

&&

.DISCUSSION...HIGH-BASED CONVECTION DEVELOPED OVER THE HIGHER
TERRAIN FROM AROUND FLAGSTAFF NORTHWARD THIS AFTERNOON BUT HAS
MOSTLY DISSIPATED THIS EVENING. THIS ACTIVITY WAS AIDED BY COOL MID
LEVEL TEMPERATURES ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAK SHORTWAVE APPROACHING THE
AREA. OTHERWISE IT WAS ANOTHER WARM ONE AROUND THE REGION WITH A FEW
NEW RECORDS SET...INCLUDING PAGE...SELIGMAN AND THE NORTH RIM OF THE
GRAND CANYON.

.PREV DISCUSSION...WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL BRING DRY AND WINDY
CONDITIONS TO NORTHERN ARIZONA OVER THE NEXT SEVEN DAY FORECAST
PERIOD. EXPECT A GRADUAL COOLING TREND THIS WEEK WITH STRONG GUSTY
WINDS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND THURSDAY AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD
FRONT MOVING THROUGH UTAH.

THE LATEST FORECAST GUIDANCE SHOWS THIS COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO
ARIZONA ON THURSDAY MORNING WITH STRONG GUSTY WINDS ALONG AND AHEAD
OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY. THERE WILL BE NO PRECIPITATION WITH THIS
DRY FRONTAL PASSAGE. BREEZY SPRING WINDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE
UPCOMING WEEKEND WITH THE STRONGEST WINDS FORECAST ON SUNDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 06Z PACKAGE...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO
PERSIST THROUGHOUT THE NEXT TWENTY-FOUR HOURS. A SLIGHT CHANCE OF A
LIGHT SHOWER CONTINUES THROUGH 08Z NE OF A KPGA-KINW-KSJN LINE...THEN A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF -TSRA OVER THE WHITE MTNS TUE AFTERNOON. GUSTY SW
WINDS EXPECTED TUE AFTERNOON. AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR
TAF AMENDMENTS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...EXPECT INCREASING WIND SPEEDS EACH AFTERNOON ON
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY AS A LOW PRESSURE TROUGH DEVELOPS TO THE NORTH
AND WEST OF ARIZONA. BY WEDNESDAY...PORTIONS OF THE LITTLE COLORADO
RIVER VALLEY AND THE COCONINO PLATEAU MAY MEASURE 20 FOOT WINDS OF
20 MPH OR A LITTLE GREATER. MINIMUM RH VALUES WILL DROP TO AROUND 10
PERCENT IN THE LOWER ELEVATIONS BY WEDNESDAY.

THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...STRONG AND GUSTY WEST WINDS ALONG WITH
SINGLE DIGIT MINIMUM AFTERNOON RH VALUES ARE EXPECTED AT LOWER
ELEVATIONS THURSDAY AFTERNOON AS A DRY COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH
NORTHERN ARIZONA. CONTINUED LOW RH VALUES ARE EXPECTED ON FRIDAY
AND SATURDAY AFTERNOONS...WITH MUCH LIGHTER WIND SPEEDS.

&&

.FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC.........JJ/BOHLIN
AVIATION.......JJ
FIRE WEATHER...AT

FOR NORTHERN ARIZONA WEATHER INFORMATION VISIT
WEATHER.GOV/FLAGSTAFF







000
FXUS65 KFGZ 310352
AFDFGZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ
850 PM MST MON MAR 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE WITH A GRADUAL
COOLING TREND FORECAST THROUGH THE WEEK. THE MAIN IMPACT DURING THE
NEXT SEVEN DAYS WILL BE THE RETURN OF GUSTY SPRINGTIME WINDS ON
WEDNESDAY...THURSDAY AND SUNDAY. DRY HUMIDITY LEVELS AND STRONG
WINDS MAY CREATE CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ON THURSDAY.
BREEZY SPRING WINDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEKEND.

&&

.DISCUSSION...HIGH-BASED CONVECTION DEVELOPED OVER THE HIGHER
TERRAIN FROM AROUND FLAGSTAFF NORTHWARD THIS AFTERNOON BUT HAS
MOSTLY DISSIPATED THIS EVENING. THIS ACTIVITY WAS AIDED BY COOL MID
LEVEL TEMPERATURES ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAK SHORTWAVE APPROACHING THE
AREA. OTHERWISE IT WAS ANOTHER WARM ONE AROUND THE REGION WITH A FEW
NEW RECORDS SET...INCLUDING PAGE...SELIGMAN AND THE NORTH RIM OF THE
GRAND CANYON.

.PREV DISCUSSION...WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL BRING DRY AND WINDY
CONDITIONS TO NORTHERN ARIZONA OVER THE NEXT SEVEN DAY FORECAST
PERIOD. EXPECT A GRADUAL COOLING TREND THIS WEEK WITH STRONG GUSTY
WINDS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND THURSDAY AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD
FRONT MOVING THROUGH UTAH.

THE LATEST FORECAST GUIDANCE SHOWS THIS COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO
ARIZONA ON THURSDAY MORNING WITH STRONG GUSTY WINDS ALONG AND AHEAD
OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY. THERE WILL BE NO PRECIPITATION WITH THIS
DRY FRONTAL PASSAGE. BREEZY SPRING WINDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE
UPCOMING WEEKEND WITH THE STRONGEST WINDS FORECAST ON SUNDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 06Z PACKAGE...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO
PERSIST THROUGHOUT THE NEXT TWENTY-FOUR HOURS. A SLIGHT CHANCE OF A
LIGHT SHOWER CONTINUES THROUGH 08Z NE OF A KPGA-KINW-KSJN LINE...THEN A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF -TSRA OVER THE WHITE MTNS TUE AFTERNOON. GUSTY SW
WINDS EXPECTED TUE AFTERNOON. AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR
TAF AMENDMENTS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...EXPECT INCREASING WIND SPEEDS EACH AFTERNOON ON
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY AS A LOW PRESSURE TROUGH DEVELOPS TO THE NORTH
AND WEST OF ARIZONA. BY WEDNESDAY...PORTIONS OF THE LITTLE COLORADO
RIVER VALLEY AND THE COCONINO PLATEAU MAY MEASURE 20 FOOT WINDS OF
20 MPH OR A LITTLE GREATER. MINIMUM RH VALUES WILL DROP TO AROUND 10
PERCENT IN THE LOWER ELEVATIONS BY WEDNESDAY.

THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...STRONG AND GUSTY WEST WINDS ALONG WITH
SINGLE DIGIT MINIMUM AFTERNOON RH VALUES ARE EXPECTED AT LOWER
ELEVATIONS THURSDAY AFTERNOON AS A DRY COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH
NORTHERN ARIZONA. CONTINUED LOW RH VALUES ARE EXPECTED ON FRIDAY
AND SATURDAY AFTERNOONS...WITH MUCH LIGHTER WIND SPEEDS.

&&

.FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC.........JJ/BOHLIN
AVIATION.......JJ
FIRE WEATHER...AT

FOR NORTHERN ARIZONA WEATHER INFORMATION VISIT
WEATHER.GOV/FLAGSTAFF







000
FXUS65 KFGZ 310352
AFDFGZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ
850 PM MST MON MAR 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE WITH A GRADUAL
COOLING TREND FORECAST THROUGH THE WEEK. THE MAIN IMPACT DURING THE
NEXT SEVEN DAYS WILL BE THE RETURN OF GUSTY SPRINGTIME WINDS ON
WEDNESDAY...THURSDAY AND SUNDAY. DRY HUMIDITY LEVELS AND STRONG
WINDS MAY CREATE CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ON THURSDAY.
BREEZY SPRING WINDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEKEND.

&&

.DISCUSSION...HIGH-BASED CONVECTION DEVELOPED OVER THE HIGHER
TERRAIN FROM AROUND FLAGSTAFF NORTHWARD THIS AFTERNOON BUT HAS
MOSTLY DISSIPATED THIS EVENING. THIS ACTIVITY WAS AIDED BY COOL MID
LEVEL TEMPERATURES ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAK SHORTWAVE APPROACHING THE
AREA. OTHERWISE IT WAS ANOTHER WARM ONE AROUND THE REGION WITH A FEW
NEW RECORDS SET...INCLUDING PAGE...SELIGMAN AND THE NORTH RIM OF THE
GRAND CANYON.

.PREV DISCUSSION...WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL BRING DRY AND WINDY
CONDITIONS TO NORTHERN ARIZONA OVER THE NEXT SEVEN DAY FORECAST
PERIOD. EXPECT A GRADUAL COOLING TREND THIS WEEK WITH STRONG GUSTY
WINDS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND THURSDAY AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD
FRONT MOVING THROUGH UTAH.

THE LATEST FORECAST GUIDANCE SHOWS THIS COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO
ARIZONA ON THURSDAY MORNING WITH STRONG GUSTY WINDS ALONG AND AHEAD
OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY. THERE WILL BE NO PRECIPITATION WITH THIS
DRY FRONTAL PASSAGE. BREEZY SPRING WINDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE
UPCOMING WEEKEND WITH THE STRONGEST WINDS FORECAST ON SUNDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 06Z PACKAGE...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO
PERSIST THROUGHOUT THE NEXT TWENTY-FOUR HOURS. A SLIGHT CHANCE OF A
LIGHT SHOWER CONTINUES THROUGH 08Z NE OF A KPGA-KINW-KSJN LINE...THEN A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF -TSRA OVER THE WHITE MTNS TUE AFTERNOON. GUSTY SW
WINDS EXPECTED TUE AFTERNOON. AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR
TAF AMENDMENTS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...EXPECT INCREASING WIND SPEEDS EACH AFTERNOON ON
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY AS A LOW PRESSURE TROUGH DEVELOPS TO THE NORTH
AND WEST OF ARIZONA. BY WEDNESDAY...PORTIONS OF THE LITTLE COLORADO
RIVER VALLEY AND THE COCONINO PLATEAU MAY MEASURE 20 FOOT WINDS OF
20 MPH OR A LITTLE GREATER. MINIMUM RH VALUES WILL DROP TO AROUND 10
PERCENT IN THE LOWER ELEVATIONS BY WEDNESDAY.

THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...STRONG AND GUSTY WEST WINDS ALONG WITH
SINGLE DIGIT MINIMUM AFTERNOON RH VALUES ARE EXPECTED AT LOWER
ELEVATIONS THURSDAY AFTERNOON AS A DRY COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH
NORTHERN ARIZONA. CONTINUED LOW RH VALUES ARE EXPECTED ON FRIDAY
AND SATURDAY AFTERNOONS...WITH MUCH LIGHTER WIND SPEEDS.

&&

.FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC.........JJ/BOHLIN
AVIATION.......JJ
FIRE WEATHER...AT

FOR NORTHERN ARIZONA WEATHER INFORMATION VISIT
WEATHER.GOV/FLAGSTAFF







000
FXUS65 KPSR 310323
AFDPSR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PHOENIX AZ
825 PM MST MON MAR 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
AN AREA OF WEAK LOW PRESSURE WILL PASS SOUTH OF THE AREA
EARLY THIS WEEK BRINGING INCREASED CLOUDINESS...BUT LITTLE IN THE
WAY OF COOLER TEMPERATURES. EXPECT AFTERNOON HIGHS TO WARM INTO THE
90S THROUGH MID WEEK. A SERIES OF WEATHER DISTURBANCES WILL MOVE
NORTH OF ARIZONA LATER IN THE WEEK...BRINGING SLIGHTLY COOLER
TEMPERATURES TO THE REGION.

&&

.DISCUSSION... AFTER ANOTHER VERY WARM DAY TODAY...WHICH SAW THE
HIGH AT PHOENIX SKY HARBOR REACH 96...ONLY ONE DEGREE BELOW THE
RECORD FOR THE DATE...WE ARE SEEING A RATHER WARM EVENING AS
WELL...WITH SHY HARBOR STILL AT 90 DEGREES AT THIS HOUR...AS A FAIR
AMOUNT OF MID AND HIGH CLOUDINESS OVER THE REGION KEEP OUR
TEMPERATURES UP A BIT. ALTHOUGH SOME VIRGA AND LIGHT SHOWERS DID
DEVELOP FROM TUCSON SOUTH AND EAST THIS AFTERNOON AS AN UPPER LOW
CENTER THAT IS PASSING WELL TO OUR SOUTH ACROSS CENTRAL BAJA PUSHES
SOME MID-LEVEL MOISTURE INTO THE REGION...LIGHT SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW
AHEAD OF A SECOND...MUCH WEAKER SHORTWAVE THAT IS NOW MOVING ACROSS
ARIZONA...KEPT ANY SHOWER ACTIVITY...OR ASSOCIATED OUTFLOWS...FROM
EVEN GETTING CLOSE TO OUR CWA. SKIES ARE EXPECTED TO SLOWLY CLEAR
FROM WEST TO EAST THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF TONIGHT AND INTO TUESDAY
AS THE FLOW ALOFT BECOMES MORE WESTERLY...AND IMPORTS DRIER AIR INTO
THE REGION. AS FAR AS THE SHORT TERM IS CONCERNED...OTHER THEN SOME
MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO THE HOURLY TEMP/DEWPOINT GRIDS...CURRENT
FORECAST PRODUCTS ARE LOOKING GOOD...AND NO FURTHER UPDATES ARE
PLANNED.

&&

.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
LOW PRESSURE REMAINS NEARLY STATIONARY WEST OF BAJA CALIFORNIA THIS
AFTERNOON...WITH A PLUME OF MOISTURE /PWATS AROUND 0.9 TO 1.0 INCHES/
STRETCHING WELL INTO SOUTHEAST ARIZONA...NEW MEXICO...AND TEXAS.
REGIONAL VIS SATELLITE INDICATES DEVELOPING CU IN THE MOUNTAINS EAST
OF PHOENIX BUT MOST OF THE RADAR ACTIVITY IS LOCATED IN MEXICO AS OF
21Z. MEANWHILE FROM PHOENIX WESTWARD...SKIES WERE MOSTLY CLEAR AND
TEMPERATURES HAVE QUICKLY RISEN INTO THE MID 90S. WE`RE APPROACHING
RECORD TERRITORY AT SKY HARBOR BUT YUMA REMAINS WELL SHY OF THEIR
RECORD.

IN THE VERY SHORT TERM...LAST 7 OR 8 RUNS OF THE HRRR HAVE INSISTED
ON CONVECTION DEVELOPING ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST ARIZONA LATE
THIS AFTERNOON...POSSIBLY CREEPING INTO SOUTHERN GILA COUNTY AFTER
00Z. OF MORE CONCERN IS THE POTENTIAL FOR GUSTY OUTFLOW WINDS
ASSOCIATED WITH THESE SHOWERS ALONG WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR PATCHY
BLOWING DUST. THE ATMOSPHERE IS LARGELY UNFAVORABLE FOR STORM
DEVELOPMENT ACROSS THE LOWER DESERTS TODAY BUT WITH VERY DRY LOW
LEVELS BELOW 700MB /SFC DEWPOINTS IN THE LOW-MID 20S/...GUSTY WINDS
AROUND 25-30MPH WOULD BE THE PRIMARY CONCERN WITH THE STORMS THAT
FORM EAST OF PHOENIX. FOR THAT REASON...I INCLUDED A MENTION OF
PATCHY BLOWING DUST IN THE NORMALLY DUST PRONE AREAS SOUTH/EAST OF
PHOENIX /CASA GRANDE...FLORENCE...COOLIDGE...ETC.../. I`M NOT
EXPECTING WIDESPREAD BLOWING DUST TODAY GIVEN THE VERY ISOLATED
NATURE OF TODAY`S STORMS...AND CONFIDENCE THAT ANY DUST WILL DEVELOP
IS QUITE LOW...BUT FELT IT WAS WORTH MENTIONING NONETHELESS.

LOW PRESSURE WILL REMAIN SOUTH OF THE AREA ON TUESDAY...HOWEVER BY
TUESDAY AFTERNOON IT WILL SHIFT EAST ABOUT 500 MILES AND ANY STORM
DEVELOPMENT WOULD BE WELL EAST OF THE AZ/NM STATE LINE. INHERITED
POPS WERE ALREADY IN THE SINGLE DIGITS/AROUND ZERO...AND THIS STILL
SEEMS MORE THAN REASONABLE BASED ON NAEFS AND HI-RES ENSEMBLES.

UPPER LEVEL FLOW CONTINUES TO FLATTEN IN THE WAKE OF THE PASSING
TROUGH AXIS FOR THE MIDDLE PART OF THE WEEK...AS THE NORTHERN BRANCH
OF THE STORM TRACK SINKS FURTHER INTO THE WEST AND THE GREAT BASIN.
A STRONG...BUT DRY...SHORTWAVE SYSTEM WILL SWEEP THROUGH THE AREA
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. THE MAIN IMPACTS OF THIS SYSTEM WILL BE WIND
AND AN ELEVATED FIRE DANGER. A DISTINCT COOL FRONTAL PASSAGE
THURSDAY WILL HELP COOL TEMPERATURES FROM THEIR NEAR RECORD READINGS
WHILE ALSO SENDING MUCH DRIER SURFACE AIR ALONG WITH GUSTY NORTH
WINDS DOWN THE LOWER COLORADO RIVER VALLEY FRIDAY. RELATIVE HUMIDITY
READINGS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS WITH GUSTY WINDS COULD LEAD TO
CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS PARTICULARLY FOR THE FIRE DISTRICTS
ALONG THE CO RIVER...HOWEVER WIND SPEEDS DO NOT QUITE REACH
WATCH/WARNING THRESHOLDS JUST YET. AFTER THE LATE WEEK SHORTWAVE
CLEARS THE REGION...BROAD TROUGH HEIGHTS/SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW REMAIN
OVER THE SOUTHWEST THROUGH THE COMING WEEKEND.

&&

.CLIMATE...

RECORD HIGHS THIS WEEK...

CITY         MARCH 30        MARCH 31
----         --------        --------
PHOENIX      97 IN 2004      94 IN 2012
YUMA         99 IN 1934      100 IN 2011

&&

.AVIATION...
SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA INCLUDING KPHX...KIWA...AND KSDL...AND
SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA AND SOUTHWEST ARIZONA INCLUDING KIPL AND KBLH...

WEAK LOW PRESSURE PASSING WELL TO OUR SOUTH IS PUSHING SCT-BKN MID-
HIGH LEVEL CIGS OVER THE PHX AREA THIS AFTERNOON. THESE CIGS ARE
EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH THIS EVENING...THEN BECOME FEW-SCT LATE
TONIGHT AND ON TUES AS THE AFOMENTIONED LOW MOVES OFF TO THE EAST.
MAINLY CLEAR SKIES TO PREVAIL OVER THE SE CA TERMINALS THROUGH THE
TAF PERIOD. LIGHT WINDS TONIGHT AND EARLY TUESDAY ARE EXPECTED TO
PICK UP FROM THE SOUTHWEST AT THE PHX AREA TERMINALS AND AT
KIPL...AND PICK UP FROM THE SOUTH AT KBLH ON TUES AFTERNOON AS
ANOTHER WEATHER DISTURBANCE APPROACHING FROM THE WEST BEGINS TO
TIGHTEN SFC PRESSURE GRADIENTS OVER THE REGION...WITH SUSTAINED
WINDS RISING INTO THE 12-15KT RANGE BY LATE AFTERNOON ON TUESDAY AT
ALL OF THE TAF SITES.

AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDED TAFS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...
A SERIES OF WEAK PACIFIC WEATHER DISTURBANCES WILL MOVE ACROSS THE
WESTERN STATES JUST NORTH OF AZ...RESULTING IN CONSIDERABLE HIGH
CLOUDS AT TIMES WITH A COOLING TREND. ONE DISTURBANCE
THURSDAY/THURSDAY NIGHT WILL PRODUCE GUSTY NORTH WINDS 20 TO 30 MPH
IN SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA AND THE COLORADO RIVER VALLEY...STRONGEST
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY AFTERNOONS. GUSTY NORTH WINDS AND MINIMUM
RELATIVE HUMIDITIES IN THE 5 PERCENT RANGE MAY LEAD TO FIRE WEATHER
CONCERNS THURSDAY AND FRIDAY AFTERNOONS IN SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA AND
THE COLORADO RIVER VALLEY. OTHERWISE MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITIES WILL
REMAIN IN THE FIVE PERCENT RANGE THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD FRIDAY
THROUGH SUNDAY. OVERNIGHT RECOVERY WILL BE GOOD EXCEPT FOR THE BREEZY
PERIOD THURSDAY NIGHT.

&&

.PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AZ...NONE.
CA...NONE.
&&

$$

VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/PHOENIX

DISCUSSION...PERCHA/LEINS/NOLTE
CLIMATE...NOLTE/MO
AVIATION...PERCHA
FIRE WEATHER...VASQUEZ




000
FXUS65 KPSR 310323
AFDPSR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PHOENIX AZ
825 PM MST MON MAR 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
AN AREA OF WEAK LOW PRESSURE WILL PASS SOUTH OF THE AREA
EARLY THIS WEEK BRINGING INCREASED CLOUDINESS...BUT LITTLE IN THE
WAY OF COOLER TEMPERATURES. EXPECT AFTERNOON HIGHS TO WARM INTO THE
90S THROUGH MID WEEK. A SERIES OF WEATHER DISTURBANCES WILL MOVE
NORTH OF ARIZONA LATER IN THE WEEK...BRINGING SLIGHTLY COOLER
TEMPERATURES TO THE REGION.

&&

.DISCUSSION... AFTER ANOTHER VERY WARM DAY TODAY...WHICH SAW THE
HIGH AT PHOENIX SKY HARBOR REACH 96...ONLY ONE DEGREE BELOW THE
RECORD FOR THE DATE...WE ARE SEEING A RATHER WARM EVENING AS
WELL...WITH SHY HARBOR STILL AT 90 DEGREES AT THIS HOUR...AS A FAIR
AMOUNT OF MID AND HIGH CLOUDINESS OVER THE REGION KEEP OUR
TEMPERATURES UP A BIT. ALTHOUGH SOME VIRGA AND LIGHT SHOWERS DID
DEVELOP FROM TUCSON SOUTH AND EAST THIS AFTERNOON AS AN UPPER LOW
CENTER THAT IS PASSING WELL TO OUR SOUTH ACROSS CENTRAL BAJA PUSHES
SOME MID-LEVEL MOISTURE INTO THE REGION...LIGHT SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW
AHEAD OF A SECOND...MUCH WEAKER SHORTWAVE THAT IS NOW MOVING ACROSS
ARIZONA...KEPT ANY SHOWER ACTIVITY...OR ASSOCIATED OUTFLOWS...FROM
EVEN GETTING CLOSE TO OUR CWA. SKIES ARE EXPECTED TO SLOWLY CLEAR
FROM WEST TO EAST THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF TONIGHT AND INTO TUESDAY
AS THE FLOW ALOFT BECOMES MORE WESTERLY...AND IMPORTS DRIER AIR INTO
THE REGION. AS FAR AS THE SHORT TERM IS CONCERNED...OTHER THEN SOME
MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO THE HOURLY TEMP/DEWPOINT GRIDS...CURRENT
FORECAST PRODUCTS ARE LOOKING GOOD...AND NO FURTHER UPDATES ARE
PLANNED.

&&

.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
LOW PRESSURE REMAINS NEARLY STATIONARY WEST OF BAJA CALIFORNIA THIS
AFTERNOON...WITH A PLUME OF MOISTURE /PWATS AROUND 0.9 TO 1.0 INCHES/
STRETCHING WELL INTO SOUTHEAST ARIZONA...NEW MEXICO...AND TEXAS.
REGIONAL VIS SATELLITE INDICATES DEVELOPING CU IN THE MOUNTAINS EAST
OF PHOENIX BUT MOST OF THE RADAR ACTIVITY IS LOCATED IN MEXICO AS OF
21Z. MEANWHILE FROM PHOENIX WESTWARD...SKIES WERE MOSTLY CLEAR AND
TEMPERATURES HAVE QUICKLY RISEN INTO THE MID 90S. WE`RE APPROACHING
RECORD TERRITORY AT SKY HARBOR BUT YUMA REMAINS WELL SHY OF THEIR
RECORD.

IN THE VERY SHORT TERM...LAST 7 OR 8 RUNS OF THE HRRR HAVE INSISTED
ON CONVECTION DEVELOPING ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST ARIZONA LATE
THIS AFTERNOON...POSSIBLY CREEPING INTO SOUTHERN GILA COUNTY AFTER
00Z. OF MORE CONCERN IS THE POTENTIAL FOR GUSTY OUTFLOW WINDS
ASSOCIATED WITH THESE SHOWERS ALONG WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR PATCHY
BLOWING DUST. THE ATMOSPHERE IS LARGELY UNFAVORABLE FOR STORM
DEVELOPMENT ACROSS THE LOWER DESERTS TODAY BUT WITH VERY DRY LOW
LEVELS BELOW 700MB /SFC DEWPOINTS IN THE LOW-MID 20S/...GUSTY WINDS
AROUND 25-30MPH WOULD BE THE PRIMARY CONCERN WITH THE STORMS THAT
FORM EAST OF PHOENIX. FOR THAT REASON...I INCLUDED A MENTION OF
PATCHY BLOWING DUST IN THE NORMALLY DUST PRONE AREAS SOUTH/EAST OF
PHOENIX /CASA GRANDE...FLORENCE...COOLIDGE...ETC.../. I`M NOT
EXPECTING WIDESPREAD BLOWING DUST TODAY GIVEN THE VERY ISOLATED
NATURE OF TODAY`S STORMS...AND CONFIDENCE THAT ANY DUST WILL DEVELOP
IS QUITE LOW...BUT FELT IT WAS WORTH MENTIONING NONETHELESS.

LOW PRESSURE WILL REMAIN SOUTH OF THE AREA ON TUESDAY...HOWEVER BY
TUESDAY AFTERNOON IT WILL SHIFT EAST ABOUT 500 MILES AND ANY STORM
DEVELOPMENT WOULD BE WELL EAST OF THE AZ/NM STATE LINE. INHERITED
POPS WERE ALREADY IN THE SINGLE DIGITS/AROUND ZERO...AND THIS STILL
SEEMS MORE THAN REASONABLE BASED ON NAEFS AND HI-RES ENSEMBLES.

UPPER LEVEL FLOW CONTINUES TO FLATTEN IN THE WAKE OF THE PASSING
TROUGH AXIS FOR THE MIDDLE PART OF THE WEEK...AS THE NORTHERN BRANCH
OF THE STORM TRACK SINKS FURTHER INTO THE WEST AND THE GREAT BASIN.
A STRONG...BUT DRY...SHORTWAVE SYSTEM WILL SWEEP THROUGH THE AREA
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. THE MAIN IMPACTS OF THIS SYSTEM WILL BE WIND
AND AN ELEVATED FIRE DANGER. A DISTINCT COOL FRONTAL PASSAGE
THURSDAY WILL HELP COOL TEMPERATURES FROM THEIR NEAR RECORD READINGS
WHILE ALSO SENDING MUCH DRIER SURFACE AIR ALONG WITH GUSTY NORTH
WINDS DOWN THE LOWER COLORADO RIVER VALLEY FRIDAY. RELATIVE HUMIDITY
READINGS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS WITH GUSTY WINDS COULD LEAD TO
CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS PARTICULARLY FOR THE FIRE DISTRICTS
ALONG THE CO RIVER...HOWEVER WIND SPEEDS DO NOT QUITE REACH
WATCH/WARNING THRESHOLDS JUST YET. AFTER THE LATE WEEK SHORTWAVE
CLEARS THE REGION...BROAD TROUGH HEIGHTS/SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW REMAIN
OVER THE SOUTHWEST THROUGH THE COMING WEEKEND.

&&

.CLIMATE...

RECORD HIGHS THIS WEEK...

CITY         MARCH 30        MARCH 31
----         --------        --------
PHOENIX      97 IN 2004      94 IN 2012
YUMA         99 IN 1934      100 IN 2011

&&

.AVIATION...
SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA INCLUDING KPHX...KIWA...AND KSDL...AND
SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA AND SOUTHWEST ARIZONA INCLUDING KIPL AND KBLH...

WEAK LOW PRESSURE PASSING WELL TO OUR SOUTH IS PUSHING SCT-BKN MID-
HIGH LEVEL CIGS OVER THE PHX AREA THIS AFTERNOON. THESE CIGS ARE
EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH THIS EVENING...THEN BECOME FEW-SCT LATE
TONIGHT AND ON TUES AS THE AFOMENTIONED LOW MOVES OFF TO THE EAST.
MAINLY CLEAR SKIES TO PREVAIL OVER THE SE CA TERMINALS THROUGH THE
TAF PERIOD. LIGHT WINDS TONIGHT AND EARLY TUESDAY ARE EXPECTED TO
PICK UP FROM THE SOUTHWEST AT THE PHX AREA TERMINALS AND AT
KIPL...AND PICK UP FROM THE SOUTH AT KBLH ON TUES AFTERNOON AS
ANOTHER WEATHER DISTURBANCE APPROACHING FROM THE WEST BEGINS TO
TIGHTEN SFC PRESSURE GRADIENTS OVER THE REGION...WITH SUSTAINED
WINDS RISING INTO THE 12-15KT RANGE BY LATE AFTERNOON ON TUESDAY AT
ALL OF THE TAF SITES.

AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDED TAFS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...
A SERIES OF WEAK PACIFIC WEATHER DISTURBANCES WILL MOVE ACROSS THE
WESTERN STATES JUST NORTH OF AZ...RESULTING IN CONSIDERABLE HIGH
CLOUDS AT TIMES WITH A COOLING TREND. ONE DISTURBANCE
THURSDAY/THURSDAY NIGHT WILL PRODUCE GUSTY NORTH WINDS 20 TO 30 MPH
IN SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA AND THE COLORADO RIVER VALLEY...STRONGEST
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY AFTERNOONS. GUSTY NORTH WINDS AND MINIMUM
RELATIVE HUMIDITIES IN THE 5 PERCENT RANGE MAY LEAD TO FIRE WEATHER
CONCERNS THURSDAY AND FRIDAY AFTERNOONS IN SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA AND
THE COLORADO RIVER VALLEY. OTHERWISE MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITIES WILL
REMAIN IN THE FIVE PERCENT RANGE THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD FRIDAY
THROUGH SUNDAY. OVERNIGHT RECOVERY WILL BE GOOD EXCEPT FOR THE BREEZY
PERIOD THURSDAY NIGHT.

&&

.PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AZ...NONE.
CA...NONE.
&&

$$

VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/PHOENIX

DISCUSSION...PERCHA/LEINS/NOLTE
CLIMATE...NOLTE/MO
AVIATION...PERCHA
FIRE WEATHER...VASQUEZ




000
FXUS65 KPSR 310323
AFDPSR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PHOENIX AZ
825 PM MST MON MAR 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
AN AREA OF WEAK LOW PRESSURE WILL PASS SOUTH OF THE AREA
EARLY THIS WEEK BRINGING INCREASED CLOUDINESS...BUT LITTLE IN THE
WAY OF COOLER TEMPERATURES. EXPECT AFTERNOON HIGHS TO WARM INTO THE
90S THROUGH MID WEEK. A SERIES OF WEATHER DISTURBANCES WILL MOVE
NORTH OF ARIZONA LATER IN THE WEEK...BRINGING SLIGHTLY COOLER
TEMPERATURES TO THE REGION.

&&

.DISCUSSION... AFTER ANOTHER VERY WARM DAY TODAY...WHICH SAW THE
HIGH AT PHOENIX SKY HARBOR REACH 96...ONLY ONE DEGREE BELOW THE
RECORD FOR THE DATE...WE ARE SEEING A RATHER WARM EVENING AS
WELL...WITH SHY HARBOR STILL AT 90 DEGREES AT THIS HOUR...AS A FAIR
AMOUNT OF MID AND HIGH CLOUDINESS OVER THE REGION KEEP OUR
TEMPERATURES UP A BIT. ALTHOUGH SOME VIRGA AND LIGHT SHOWERS DID
DEVELOP FROM TUCSON SOUTH AND EAST THIS AFTERNOON AS AN UPPER LOW
CENTER THAT IS PASSING WELL TO OUR SOUTH ACROSS CENTRAL BAJA PUSHES
SOME MID-LEVEL MOISTURE INTO THE REGION...LIGHT SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW
AHEAD OF A SECOND...MUCH WEAKER SHORTWAVE THAT IS NOW MOVING ACROSS
ARIZONA...KEPT ANY SHOWER ACTIVITY...OR ASSOCIATED OUTFLOWS...FROM
EVEN GETTING CLOSE TO OUR CWA. SKIES ARE EXPECTED TO SLOWLY CLEAR
FROM WEST TO EAST THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF TONIGHT AND INTO TUESDAY
AS THE FLOW ALOFT BECOMES MORE WESTERLY...AND IMPORTS DRIER AIR INTO
THE REGION. AS FAR AS THE SHORT TERM IS CONCERNED...OTHER THEN SOME
MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO THE HOURLY TEMP/DEWPOINT GRIDS...CURRENT
FORECAST PRODUCTS ARE LOOKING GOOD...AND NO FURTHER UPDATES ARE
PLANNED.

&&

.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
LOW PRESSURE REMAINS NEARLY STATIONARY WEST OF BAJA CALIFORNIA THIS
AFTERNOON...WITH A PLUME OF MOISTURE /PWATS AROUND 0.9 TO 1.0 INCHES/
STRETCHING WELL INTO SOUTHEAST ARIZONA...NEW MEXICO...AND TEXAS.
REGIONAL VIS SATELLITE INDICATES DEVELOPING CU IN THE MOUNTAINS EAST
OF PHOENIX BUT MOST OF THE RADAR ACTIVITY IS LOCATED IN MEXICO AS OF
21Z. MEANWHILE FROM PHOENIX WESTWARD...SKIES WERE MOSTLY CLEAR AND
TEMPERATURES HAVE QUICKLY RISEN INTO THE MID 90S. WE`RE APPROACHING
RECORD TERRITORY AT SKY HARBOR BUT YUMA REMAINS WELL SHY OF THEIR
RECORD.

IN THE VERY SHORT TERM...LAST 7 OR 8 RUNS OF THE HRRR HAVE INSISTED
ON CONVECTION DEVELOPING ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST ARIZONA LATE
THIS AFTERNOON...POSSIBLY CREEPING INTO SOUTHERN GILA COUNTY AFTER
00Z. OF MORE CONCERN IS THE POTENTIAL FOR GUSTY OUTFLOW WINDS
ASSOCIATED WITH THESE SHOWERS ALONG WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR PATCHY
BLOWING DUST. THE ATMOSPHERE IS LARGELY UNFAVORABLE FOR STORM
DEVELOPMENT ACROSS THE LOWER DESERTS TODAY BUT WITH VERY DRY LOW
LEVELS BELOW 700MB /SFC DEWPOINTS IN THE LOW-MID 20S/...GUSTY WINDS
AROUND 25-30MPH WOULD BE THE PRIMARY CONCERN WITH THE STORMS THAT
FORM EAST OF PHOENIX. FOR THAT REASON...I INCLUDED A MENTION OF
PATCHY BLOWING DUST IN THE NORMALLY DUST PRONE AREAS SOUTH/EAST OF
PHOENIX /CASA GRANDE...FLORENCE...COOLIDGE...ETC.../. I`M NOT
EXPECTING WIDESPREAD BLOWING DUST TODAY GIVEN THE VERY ISOLATED
NATURE OF TODAY`S STORMS...AND CONFIDENCE THAT ANY DUST WILL DEVELOP
IS QUITE LOW...BUT FELT IT WAS WORTH MENTIONING NONETHELESS.

LOW PRESSURE WILL REMAIN SOUTH OF THE AREA ON TUESDAY...HOWEVER BY
TUESDAY AFTERNOON IT WILL SHIFT EAST ABOUT 500 MILES AND ANY STORM
DEVELOPMENT WOULD BE WELL EAST OF THE AZ/NM STATE LINE. INHERITED
POPS WERE ALREADY IN THE SINGLE DIGITS/AROUND ZERO...AND THIS STILL
SEEMS MORE THAN REASONABLE BASED ON NAEFS AND HI-RES ENSEMBLES.

UPPER LEVEL FLOW CONTINUES TO FLATTEN IN THE WAKE OF THE PASSING
TROUGH AXIS FOR THE MIDDLE PART OF THE WEEK...AS THE NORTHERN BRANCH
OF THE STORM TRACK SINKS FURTHER INTO THE WEST AND THE GREAT BASIN.
A STRONG...BUT DRY...SHORTWAVE SYSTEM WILL SWEEP THROUGH THE AREA
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. THE MAIN IMPACTS OF THIS SYSTEM WILL BE WIND
AND AN ELEVATED FIRE DANGER. A DISTINCT COOL FRONTAL PASSAGE
THURSDAY WILL HELP COOL TEMPERATURES FROM THEIR NEAR RECORD READINGS
WHILE ALSO SENDING MUCH DRIER SURFACE AIR ALONG WITH GUSTY NORTH
WINDS DOWN THE LOWER COLORADO RIVER VALLEY FRIDAY. RELATIVE HUMIDITY
READINGS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS WITH GUSTY WINDS COULD LEAD TO
CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS PARTICULARLY FOR THE FIRE DISTRICTS
ALONG THE CO RIVER...HOWEVER WIND SPEEDS DO NOT QUITE REACH
WATCH/WARNING THRESHOLDS JUST YET. AFTER THE LATE WEEK SHORTWAVE
CLEARS THE REGION...BROAD TROUGH HEIGHTS/SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW REMAIN
OVER THE SOUTHWEST THROUGH THE COMING WEEKEND.

&&

.CLIMATE...

RECORD HIGHS THIS WEEK...

CITY         MARCH 30        MARCH 31
----         --------        --------
PHOENIX      97 IN 2004      94 IN 2012
YUMA         99 IN 1934      100 IN 2011

&&

.AVIATION...
SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA INCLUDING KPHX...KIWA...AND KSDL...AND
SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA AND SOUTHWEST ARIZONA INCLUDING KIPL AND KBLH...

WEAK LOW PRESSURE PASSING WELL TO OUR SOUTH IS PUSHING SCT-BKN MID-
HIGH LEVEL CIGS OVER THE PHX AREA THIS AFTERNOON. THESE CIGS ARE
EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH THIS EVENING...THEN BECOME FEW-SCT LATE
TONIGHT AND ON TUES AS THE AFOMENTIONED LOW MOVES OFF TO THE EAST.
MAINLY CLEAR SKIES TO PREVAIL OVER THE SE CA TERMINALS THROUGH THE
TAF PERIOD. LIGHT WINDS TONIGHT AND EARLY TUESDAY ARE EXPECTED TO
PICK UP FROM THE SOUTHWEST AT THE PHX AREA TERMINALS AND AT
KIPL...AND PICK UP FROM THE SOUTH AT KBLH ON TUES AFTERNOON AS
ANOTHER WEATHER DISTURBANCE APPROACHING FROM THE WEST BEGINS TO
TIGHTEN SFC PRESSURE GRADIENTS OVER THE REGION...WITH SUSTAINED
WINDS RISING INTO THE 12-15KT RANGE BY LATE AFTERNOON ON TUESDAY AT
ALL OF THE TAF SITES.

AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDED TAFS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...
A SERIES OF WEAK PACIFIC WEATHER DISTURBANCES WILL MOVE ACROSS THE
WESTERN STATES JUST NORTH OF AZ...RESULTING IN CONSIDERABLE HIGH
CLOUDS AT TIMES WITH A COOLING TREND. ONE DISTURBANCE
THURSDAY/THURSDAY NIGHT WILL PRODUCE GUSTY NORTH WINDS 20 TO 30 MPH
IN SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA AND THE COLORADO RIVER VALLEY...STRONGEST
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY AFTERNOONS. GUSTY NORTH WINDS AND MINIMUM
RELATIVE HUMIDITIES IN THE 5 PERCENT RANGE MAY LEAD TO FIRE WEATHER
CONCERNS THURSDAY AND FRIDAY AFTERNOONS IN SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA AND
THE COLORADO RIVER VALLEY. OTHERWISE MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITIES WILL
REMAIN IN THE FIVE PERCENT RANGE THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD FRIDAY
THROUGH SUNDAY. OVERNIGHT RECOVERY WILL BE GOOD EXCEPT FOR THE BREEZY
PERIOD THURSDAY NIGHT.

&&

.PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AZ...NONE.
CA...NONE.
&&

$$

VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/PHOENIX

DISCUSSION...PERCHA/LEINS/NOLTE
CLIMATE...NOLTE/MO
AVIATION...PERCHA
FIRE WEATHER...VASQUEZ




000
FXUS65 KPSR 310323
AFDPSR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PHOENIX AZ
825 PM MST MON MAR 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
AN AREA OF WEAK LOW PRESSURE WILL PASS SOUTH OF THE AREA
EARLY THIS WEEK BRINGING INCREASED CLOUDINESS...BUT LITTLE IN THE
WAY OF COOLER TEMPERATURES. EXPECT AFTERNOON HIGHS TO WARM INTO THE
90S THROUGH MID WEEK. A SERIES OF WEATHER DISTURBANCES WILL MOVE
NORTH OF ARIZONA LATER IN THE WEEK...BRINGING SLIGHTLY COOLER
TEMPERATURES TO THE REGION.

&&

.DISCUSSION... AFTER ANOTHER VERY WARM DAY TODAY...WHICH SAW THE
HIGH AT PHOENIX SKY HARBOR REACH 96...ONLY ONE DEGREE BELOW THE
RECORD FOR THE DATE...WE ARE SEEING A RATHER WARM EVENING AS
WELL...WITH SHY HARBOR STILL AT 90 DEGREES AT THIS HOUR...AS A FAIR
AMOUNT OF MID AND HIGH CLOUDINESS OVER THE REGION KEEP OUR
TEMPERATURES UP A BIT. ALTHOUGH SOME VIRGA AND LIGHT SHOWERS DID
DEVELOP FROM TUCSON SOUTH AND EAST THIS AFTERNOON AS AN UPPER LOW
CENTER THAT IS PASSING WELL TO OUR SOUTH ACROSS CENTRAL BAJA PUSHES
SOME MID-LEVEL MOISTURE INTO THE REGION...LIGHT SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW
AHEAD OF A SECOND...MUCH WEAKER SHORTWAVE THAT IS NOW MOVING ACROSS
ARIZONA...KEPT ANY SHOWER ACTIVITY...OR ASSOCIATED OUTFLOWS...FROM
EVEN GETTING CLOSE TO OUR CWA. SKIES ARE EXPECTED TO SLOWLY CLEAR
FROM WEST TO EAST THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF TONIGHT AND INTO TUESDAY
AS THE FLOW ALOFT BECOMES MORE WESTERLY...AND IMPORTS DRIER AIR INTO
THE REGION. AS FAR AS THE SHORT TERM IS CONCERNED...OTHER THEN SOME
MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO THE HOURLY TEMP/DEWPOINT GRIDS...CURRENT
FORECAST PRODUCTS ARE LOOKING GOOD...AND NO FURTHER UPDATES ARE
PLANNED.

&&

.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
LOW PRESSURE REMAINS NEARLY STATIONARY WEST OF BAJA CALIFORNIA THIS
AFTERNOON...WITH A PLUME OF MOISTURE /PWATS AROUND 0.9 TO 1.0 INCHES/
STRETCHING WELL INTO SOUTHEAST ARIZONA...NEW MEXICO...AND TEXAS.
REGIONAL VIS SATELLITE INDICATES DEVELOPING CU IN THE MOUNTAINS EAST
OF PHOENIX BUT MOST OF THE RADAR ACTIVITY IS LOCATED IN MEXICO AS OF
21Z. MEANWHILE FROM PHOENIX WESTWARD...SKIES WERE MOSTLY CLEAR AND
TEMPERATURES HAVE QUICKLY RISEN INTO THE MID 90S. WE`RE APPROACHING
RECORD TERRITORY AT SKY HARBOR BUT YUMA REMAINS WELL SHY OF THEIR
RECORD.

IN THE VERY SHORT TERM...LAST 7 OR 8 RUNS OF THE HRRR HAVE INSISTED
ON CONVECTION DEVELOPING ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST ARIZONA LATE
THIS AFTERNOON...POSSIBLY CREEPING INTO SOUTHERN GILA COUNTY AFTER
00Z. OF MORE CONCERN IS THE POTENTIAL FOR GUSTY OUTFLOW WINDS
ASSOCIATED WITH THESE SHOWERS ALONG WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR PATCHY
BLOWING DUST. THE ATMOSPHERE IS LARGELY UNFAVORABLE FOR STORM
DEVELOPMENT ACROSS THE LOWER DESERTS TODAY BUT WITH VERY DRY LOW
LEVELS BELOW 700MB /SFC DEWPOINTS IN THE LOW-MID 20S/...GUSTY WINDS
AROUND 25-30MPH WOULD BE THE PRIMARY CONCERN WITH THE STORMS THAT
FORM EAST OF PHOENIX. FOR THAT REASON...I INCLUDED A MENTION OF
PATCHY BLOWING DUST IN THE NORMALLY DUST PRONE AREAS SOUTH/EAST OF
PHOENIX /CASA GRANDE...FLORENCE...COOLIDGE...ETC.../. I`M NOT
EXPECTING WIDESPREAD BLOWING DUST TODAY GIVEN THE VERY ISOLATED
NATURE OF TODAY`S STORMS...AND CONFIDENCE THAT ANY DUST WILL DEVELOP
IS QUITE LOW...BUT FELT IT WAS WORTH MENTIONING NONETHELESS.

LOW PRESSURE WILL REMAIN SOUTH OF THE AREA ON TUESDAY...HOWEVER BY
TUESDAY AFTERNOON IT WILL SHIFT EAST ABOUT 500 MILES AND ANY STORM
DEVELOPMENT WOULD BE WELL EAST OF THE AZ/NM STATE LINE. INHERITED
POPS WERE ALREADY IN THE SINGLE DIGITS/AROUND ZERO...AND THIS STILL
SEEMS MORE THAN REASONABLE BASED ON NAEFS AND HI-RES ENSEMBLES.

UPPER LEVEL FLOW CONTINUES TO FLATTEN IN THE WAKE OF THE PASSING
TROUGH AXIS FOR THE MIDDLE PART OF THE WEEK...AS THE NORTHERN BRANCH
OF THE STORM TRACK SINKS FURTHER INTO THE WEST AND THE GREAT BASIN.
A STRONG...BUT DRY...SHORTWAVE SYSTEM WILL SWEEP THROUGH THE AREA
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. THE MAIN IMPACTS OF THIS SYSTEM WILL BE WIND
AND AN ELEVATED FIRE DANGER. A DISTINCT COOL FRONTAL PASSAGE
THURSDAY WILL HELP COOL TEMPERATURES FROM THEIR NEAR RECORD READINGS
WHILE ALSO SENDING MUCH DRIER SURFACE AIR ALONG WITH GUSTY NORTH
WINDS DOWN THE LOWER COLORADO RIVER VALLEY FRIDAY. RELATIVE HUMIDITY
READINGS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS WITH GUSTY WINDS COULD LEAD TO
CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS PARTICULARLY FOR THE FIRE DISTRICTS
ALONG THE CO RIVER...HOWEVER WIND SPEEDS DO NOT QUITE REACH
WATCH/WARNING THRESHOLDS JUST YET. AFTER THE LATE WEEK SHORTWAVE
CLEARS THE REGION...BROAD TROUGH HEIGHTS/SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW REMAIN
OVER THE SOUTHWEST THROUGH THE COMING WEEKEND.

&&

.CLIMATE...

RECORD HIGHS THIS WEEK...

CITY         MARCH 30        MARCH 31
----         --------        --------
PHOENIX      97 IN 2004      94 IN 2012
YUMA         99 IN 1934      100 IN 2011

&&

.AVIATION...
SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA INCLUDING KPHX...KIWA...AND KSDL...AND
SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA AND SOUTHWEST ARIZONA INCLUDING KIPL AND KBLH...

WEAK LOW PRESSURE PASSING WELL TO OUR SOUTH IS PUSHING SCT-BKN MID-
HIGH LEVEL CIGS OVER THE PHX AREA THIS AFTERNOON. THESE CIGS ARE
EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH THIS EVENING...THEN BECOME FEW-SCT LATE
TONIGHT AND ON TUES AS THE AFOMENTIONED LOW MOVES OFF TO THE EAST.
MAINLY CLEAR SKIES TO PREVAIL OVER THE SE CA TERMINALS THROUGH THE
TAF PERIOD. LIGHT WINDS TONIGHT AND EARLY TUESDAY ARE EXPECTED TO
PICK UP FROM THE SOUTHWEST AT THE PHX AREA TERMINALS AND AT
KIPL...AND PICK UP FROM THE SOUTH AT KBLH ON TUES AFTERNOON AS
ANOTHER WEATHER DISTURBANCE APPROACHING FROM THE WEST BEGINS TO
TIGHTEN SFC PRESSURE GRADIENTS OVER THE REGION...WITH SUSTAINED
WINDS RISING INTO THE 12-15KT RANGE BY LATE AFTERNOON ON TUESDAY AT
ALL OF THE TAF SITES.

AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDED TAFS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...
A SERIES OF WEAK PACIFIC WEATHER DISTURBANCES WILL MOVE ACROSS THE
WESTERN STATES JUST NORTH OF AZ...RESULTING IN CONSIDERABLE HIGH
CLOUDS AT TIMES WITH A COOLING TREND. ONE DISTURBANCE
THURSDAY/THURSDAY NIGHT WILL PRODUCE GUSTY NORTH WINDS 20 TO 30 MPH
IN SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA AND THE COLORADO RIVER VALLEY...STRONGEST
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY AFTERNOONS. GUSTY NORTH WINDS AND MINIMUM
RELATIVE HUMIDITIES IN THE 5 PERCENT RANGE MAY LEAD TO FIRE WEATHER
CONCERNS THURSDAY AND FRIDAY AFTERNOONS IN SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA AND
THE COLORADO RIVER VALLEY. OTHERWISE MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITIES WILL
REMAIN IN THE FIVE PERCENT RANGE THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD FRIDAY
THROUGH SUNDAY. OVERNIGHT RECOVERY WILL BE GOOD EXCEPT FOR THE BREEZY
PERIOD THURSDAY NIGHT.

&&

.PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AZ...NONE.
CA...NONE.
&&

$$

VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/PHOENIX

DISCUSSION...PERCHA/LEINS/NOLTE
CLIMATE...NOLTE/MO
AVIATION...PERCHA
FIRE WEATHER...VASQUEZ




000
FXUS65 KPSR 310323
AFDPSR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PHOENIX AZ
825 PM MST MON MAR 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
AN AREA OF WEAK LOW PRESSURE WILL PASS SOUTH OF THE AREA
EARLY THIS WEEK BRINGING INCREASED CLOUDINESS...BUT LITTLE IN THE
WAY OF COOLER TEMPERATURES. EXPECT AFTERNOON HIGHS TO WARM INTO THE
90S THROUGH MID WEEK. A SERIES OF WEATHER DISTURBANCES WILL MOVE
NORTH OF ARIZONA LATER IN THE WEEK...BRINGING SLIGHTLY COOLER
TEMPERATURES TO THE REGION.

&&

.DISCUSSION... AFTER ANOTHER VERY WARM DAY TODAY...WHICH SAW THE
HIGH AT PHOENIX SKY HARBOR REACH 96...ONLY ONE DEGREE BELOW THE
RECORD FOR THE DATE...WE ARE SEEING A RATHER WARM EVENING AS
WELL...WITH SHY HARBOR STILL AT 90 DEGREES AT THIS HOUR...AS A FAIR
AMOUNT OF MID AND HIGH CLOUDINESS OVER THE REGION KEEP OUR
TEMPERATURES UP A BIT. ALTHOUGH SOME VIRGA AND LIGHT SHOWERS DID
DEVELOP FROM TUCSON SOUTH AND EAST THIS AFTERNOON AS AN UPPER LOW
CENTER THAT IS PASSING WELL TO OUR SOUTH ACROSS CENTRAL BAJA PUSHES
SOME MID-LEVEL MOISTURE INTO THE REGION...LIGHT SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW
AHEAD OF A SECOND...MUCH WEAKER SHORTWAVE THAT IS NOW MOVING ACROSS
ARIZONA...KEPT ANY SHOWER ACTIVITY...OR ASSOCIATED OUTFLOWS...FROM
EVEN GETTING CLOSE TO OUR CWA. SKIES ARE EXPECTED TO SLOWLY CLEAR
FROM WEST TO EAST THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF TONIGHT AND INTO TUESDAY
AS THE FLOW ALOFT BECOMES MORE WESTERLY...AND IMPORTS DRIER AIR INTO
THE REGION. AS FAR AS THE SHORT TERM IS CONCERNED...OTHER THEN SOME
MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO THE HOURLY TEMP/DEWPOINT GRIDS...CURRENT
FORECAST PRODUCTS ARE LOOKING GOOD...AND NO FURTHER UPDATES ARE
PLANNED.

&&

.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
LOW PRESSURE REMAINS NEARLY STATIONARY WEST OF BAJA CALIFORNIA THIS
AFTERNOON...WITH A PLUME OF MOISTURE /PWATS AROUND 0.9 TO 1.0 INCHES/
STRETCHING WELL INTO SOUTHEAST ARIZONA...NEW MEXICO...AND TEXAS.
REGIONAL VIS SATELLITE INDICATES DEVELOPING CU IN THE MOUNTAINS EAST
OF PHOENIX BUT MOST OF THE RADAR ACTIVITY IS LOCATED IN MEXICO AS OF
21Z. MEANWHILE FROM PHOENIX WESTWARD...SKIES WERE MOSTLY CLEAR AND
TEMPERATURES HAVE QUICKLY RISEN INTO THE MID 90S. WE`RE APPROACHING
RECORD TERRITORY AT SKY HARBOR BUT YUMA REMAINS WELL SHY OF THEIR
RECORD.

IN THE VERY SHORT TERM...LAST 7 OR 8 RUNS OF THE HRRR HAVE INSISTED
ON CONVECTION DEVELOPING ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST ARIZONA LATE
THIS AFTERNOON...POSSIBLY CREEPING INTO SOUTHERN GILA COUNTY AFTER
00Z. OF MORE CONCERN IS THE POTENTIAL FOR GUSTY OUTFLOW WINDS
ASSOCIATED WITH THESE SHOWERS ALONG WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR PATCHY
BLOWING DUST. THE ATMOSPHERE IS LARGELY UNFAVORABLE FOR STORM
DEVELOPMENT ACROSS THE LOWER DESERTS TODAY BUT WITH VERY DRY LOW
LEVELS BELOW 700MB /SFC DEWPOINTS IN THE LOW-MID 20S/...GUSTY WINDS
AROUND 25-30MPH WOULD BE THE PRIMARY CONCERN WITH THE STORMS THAT
FORM EAST OF PHOENIX. FOR THAT REASON...I INCLUDED A MENTION OF
PATCHY BLOWING DUST IN THE NORMALLY DUST PRONE AREAS SOUTH/EAST OF
PHOENIX /CASA GRANDE...FLORENCE...COOLIDGE...ETC.../. I`M NOT
EXPECTING WIDESPREAD BLOWING DUST TODAY GIVEN THE VERY ISOLATED
NATURE OF TODAY`S STORMS...AND CONFIDENCE THAT ANY DUST WILL DEVELOP
IS QUITE LOW...BUT FELT IT WAS WORTH MENTIONING NONETHELESS.

LOW PRESSURE WILL REMAIN SOUTH OF THE AREA ON TUESDAY...HOWEVER BY
TUESDAY AFTERNOON IT WILL SHIFT EAST ABOUT 500 MILES AND ANY STORM
DEVELOPMENT WOULD BE WELL EAST OF THE AZ/NM STATE LINE. INHERITED
POPS WERE ALREADY IN THE SINGLE DIGITS/AROUND ZERO...AND THIS STILL
SEEMS MORE THAN REASONABLE BASED ON NAEFS AND HI-RES ENSEMBLES.

UPPER LEVEL FLOW CONTINUES TO FLATTEN IN THE WAKE OF THE PASSING
TROUGH AXIS FOR THE MIDDLE PART OF THE WEEK...AS THE NORTHERN BRANCH
OF THE STORM TRACK SINKS FURTHER INTO THE WEST AND THE GREAT BASIN.
A STRONG...BUT DRY...SHORTWAVE SYSTEM WILL SWEEP THROUGH THE AREA
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. THE MAIN IMPACTS OF THIS SYSTEM WILL BE WIND
AND AN ELEVATED FIRE DANGER. A DISTINCT COOL FRONTAL PASSAGE
THURSDAY WILL HELP COOL TEMPERATURES FROM THEIR NEAR RECORD READINGS
WHILE ALSO SENDING MUCH DRIER SURFACE AIR ALONG WITH GUSTY NORTH
WINDS DOWN THE LOWER COLORADO RIVER VALLEY FRIDAY. RELATIVE HUMIDITY
READINGS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS WITH GUSTY WINDS COULD LEAD TO
CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS PARTICULARLY FOR THE FIRE DISTRICTS
ALONG THE CO RIVER...HOWEVER WIND SPEEDS DO NOT QUITE REACH
WATCH/WARNING THRESHOLDS JUST YET. AFTER THE LATE WEEK SHORTWAVE
CLEARS THE REGION...BROAD TROUGH HEIGHTS/SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW REMAIN
OVER THE SOUTHWEST THROUGH THE COMING WEEKEND.

&&

.CLIMATE...

RECORD HIGHS THIS WEEK...

CITY         MARCH 30        MARCH 31
----         --------        --------
PHOENIX      97 IN 2004      94 IN 2012
YUMA         99 IN 1934      100 IN 2011

&&

.AVIATION...
SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA INCLUDING KPHX...KIWA...AND KSDL...AND
SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA AND SOUTHWEST ARIZONA INCLUDING KIPL AND KBLH...

WEAK LOW PRESSURE PASSING WELL TO OUR SOUTH IS PUSHING SCT-BKN MID-
HIGH LEVEL CIGS OVER THE PHX AREA THIS AFTERNOON. THESE CIGS ARE
EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH THIS EVENING...THEN BECOME FEW-SCT LATE
TONIGHT AND ON TUES AS THE AFOMENTIONED LOW MOVES OFF TO THE EAST.
MAINLY CLEAR SKIES TO PREVAIL OVER THE SE CA TERMINALS THROUGH THE
TAF PERIOD. LIGHT WINDS TONIGHT AND EARLY TUESDAY ARE EXPECTED TO
PICK UP FROM THE SOUTHWEST AT THE PHX AREA TERMINALS AND AT
KIPL...AND PICK UP FROM THE SOUTH AT KBLH ON TUES AFTERNOON AS
ANOTHER WEATHER DISTURBANCE APPROACHING FROM THE WEST BEGINS TO
TIGHTEN SFC PRESSURE GRADIENTS OVER THE REGION...WITH SUSTAINED
WINDS RISING INTO THE 12-15KT RANGE BY LATE AFTERNOON ON TUESDAY AT
ALL OF THE TAF SITES.

AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDED TAFS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...
A SERIES OF WEAK PACIFIC WEATHER DISTURBANCES WILL MOVE ACROSS THE
WESTERN STATES JUST NORTH OF AZ...RESULTING IN CONSIDERABLE HIGH
CLOUDS AT TIMES WITH A COOLING TREND. ONE DISTURBANCE
THURSDAY/THURSDAY NIGHT WILL PRODUCE GUSTY NORTH WINDS 20 TO 30 MPH
IN SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA AND THE COLORADO RIVER VALLEY...STRONGEST
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY AFTERNOONS. GUSTY NORTH WINDS AND MINIMUM
RELATIVE HUMIDITIES IN THE 5 PERCENT RANGE MAY LEAD TO FIRE WEATHER
CONCERNS THURSDAY AND FRIDAY AFTERNOONS IN SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA AND
THE COLORADO RIVER VALLEY. OTHERWISE MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITIES WILL
REMAIN IN THE FIVE PERCENT RANGE THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD FRIDAY
THROUGH SUNDAY. OVERNIGHT RECOVERY WILL BE GOOD EXCEPT FOR THE BREEZY
PERIOD THURSDAY NIGHT.

&&

.PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AZ...NONE.
CA...NONE.
&&

$$

VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/PHOENIX

DISCUSSION...PERCHA/LEINS/NOLTE
CLIMATE...NOLTE/MO
AVIATION...PERCHA
FIRE WEATHER...VASQUEZ




000
FXUS65 KPSR 310323
AFDPSR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PHOENIX AZ
825 PM MST MON MAR 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
AN AREA OF WEAK LOW PRESSURE WILL PASS SOUTH OF THE AREA
EARLY THIS WEEK BRINGING INCREASED CLOUDINESS...BUT LITTLE IN THE
WAY OF COOLER TEMPERATURES. EXPECT AFTERNOON HIGHS TO WARM INTO THE
90S THROUGH MID WEEK. A SERIES OF WEATHER DISTURBANCES WILL MOVE
NORTH OF ARIZONA LATER IN THE WEEK...BRINGING SLIGHTLY COOLER
TEMPERATURES TO THE REGION.

&&

.DISCUSSION... AFTER ANOTHER VERY WARM DAY TODAY...WHICH SAW THE
HIGH AT PHOENIX SKY HARBOR REACH 96...ONLY ONE DEGREE BELOW THE
RECORD FOR THE DATE...WE ARE SEEING A RATHER WARM EVENING AS
WELL...WITH SHY HARBOR STILL AT 90 DEGREES AT THIS HOUR...AS A FAIR
AMOUNT OF MID AND HIGH CLOUDINESS OVER THE REGION KEEP OUR
TEMPERATURES UP A BIT. ALTHOUGH SOME VIRGA AND LIGHT SHOWERS DID
DEVELOP FROM TUCSON SOUTH AND EAST THIS AFTERNOON AS AN UPPER LOW
CENTER THAT IS PASSING WELL TO OUR SOUTH ACROSS CENTRAL BAJA PUSHES
SOME MID-LEVEL MOISTURE INTO THE REGION...LIGHT SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW
AHEAD OF A SECOND...MUCH WEAKER SHORTWAVE THAT IS NOW MOVING ACROSS
ARIZONA...KEPT ANY SHOWER ACTIVITY...OR ASSOCIATED OUTFLOWS...FROM
EVEN GETTING CLOSE TO OUR CWA. SKIES ARE EXPECTED TO SLOWLY CLEAR
FROM WEST TO EAST THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF TONIGHT AND INTO TUESDAY
AS THE FLOW ALOFT BECOMES MORE WESTERLY...AND IMPORTS DRIER AIR INTO
THE REGION. AS FAR AS THE SHORT TERM IS CONCERNED...OTHER THEN SOME
MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO THE HOURLY TEMP/DEWPOINT GRIDS...CURRENT
FORECAST PRODUCTS ARE LOOKING GOOD...AND NO FURTHER UPDATES ARE
PLANNED.

&&

.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
LOW PRESSURE REMAINS NEARLY STATIONARY WEST OF BAJA CALIFORNIA THIS
AFTERNOON...WITH A PLUME OF MOISTURE /PWATS AROUND 0.9 TO 1.0 INCHES/
STRETCHING WELL INTO SOUTHEAST ARIZONA...NEW MEXICO...AND TEXAS.
REGIONAL VIS SATELLITE INDICATES DEVELOPING CU IN THE MOUNTAINS EAST
OF PHOENIX BUT MOST OF THE RADAR ACTIVITY IS LOCATED IN MEXICO AS OF
21Z. MEANWHILE FROM PHOENIX WESTWARD...SKIES WERE MOSTLY CLEAR AND
TEMPERATURES HAVE QUICKLY RISEN INTO THE MID 90S. WE`RE APPROACHING
RECORD TERRITORY AT SKY HARBOR BUT YUMA REMAINS WELL SHY OF THEIR
RECORD.

IN THE VERY SHORT TERM...LAST 7 OR 8 RUNS OF THE HRRR HAVE INSISTED
ON CONVECTION DEVELOPING ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST ARIZONA LATE
THIS AFTERNOON...POSSIBLY CREEPING INTO SOUTHERN GILA COUNTY AFTER
00Z. OF MORE CONCERN IS THE POTENTIAL FOR GUSTY OUTFLOW WINDS
ASSOCIATED WITH THESE SHOWERS ALONG WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR PATCHY
BLOWING DUST. THE ATMOSPHERE IS LARGELY UNFAVORABLE FOR STORM
DEVELOPMENT ACROSS THE LOWER DESERTS TODAY BUT WITH VERY DRY LOW
LEVELS BELOW 700MB /SFC DEWPOINTS IN THE LOW-MID 20S/...GUSTY WINDS
AROUND 25-30MPH WOULD BE THE PRIMARY CONCERN WITH THE STORMS THAT
FORM EAST OF PHOENIX. FOR THAT REASON...I INCLUDED A MENTION OF
PATCHY BLOWING DUST IN THE NORMALLY DUST PRONE AREAS SOUTH/EAST OF
PHOENIX /CASA GRANDE...FLORENCE...COOLIDGE...ETC.../. I`M NOT
EXPECTING WIDESPREAD BLOWING DUST TODAY GIVEN THE VERY ISOLATED
NATURE OF TODAY`S STORMS...AND CONFIDENCE THAT ANY DUST WILL DEVELOP
IS QUITE LOW...BUT FELT IT WAS WORTH MENTIONING NONETHELESS.

LOW PRESSURE WILL REMAIN SOUTH OF THE AREA ON TUESDAY...HOWEVER BY
TUESDAY AFTERNOON IT WILL SHIFT EAST ABOUT 500 MILES AND ANY STORM
DEVELOPMENT WOULD BE WELL EAST OF THE AZ/NM STATE LINE. INHERITED
POPS WERE ALREADY IN THE SINGLE DIGITS/AROUND ZERO...AND THIS STILL
SEEMS MORE THAN REASONABLE BASED ON NAEFS AND HI-RES ENSEMBLES.

UPPER LEVEL FLOW CONTINUES TO FLATTEN IN THE WAKE OF THE PASSING
TROUGH AXIS FOR THE MIDDLE PART OF THE WEEK...AS THE NORTHERN BRANCH
OF THE STORM TRACK SINKS FURTHER INTO THE WEST AND THE GREAT BASIN.
A STRONG...BUT DRY...SHORTWAVE SYSTEM WILL SWEEP THROUGH THE AREA
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. THE MAIN IMPACTS OF THIS SYSTEM WILL BE WIND
AND AN ELEVATED FIRE DANGER. A DISTINCT COOL FRONTAL PASSAGE
THURSDAY WILL HELP COOL TEMPERATURES FROM THEIR NEAR RECORD READINGS
WHILE ALSO SENDING MUCH DRIER SURFACE AIR ALONG WITH GUSTY NORTH
WINDS DOWN THE LOWER COLORADO RIVER VALLEY FRIDAY. RELATIVE HUMIDITY
READINGS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS WITH GUSTY WINDS COULD LEAD TO
CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS PARTICULARLY FOR THE FIRE DISTRICTS
ALONG THE CO RIVER...HOWEVER WIND SPEEDS DO NOT QUITE REACH
WATCH/WARNING THRESHOLDS JUST YET. AFTER THE LATE WEEK SHORTWAVE
CLEARS THE REGION...BROAD TROUGH HEIGHTS/SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW REMAIN
OVER THE SOUTHWEST THROUGH THE COMING WEEKEND.

&&

.CLIMATE...

RECORD HIGHS THIS WEEK...

CITY         MARCH 30        MARCH 31
----         --------        --------
PHOENIX      97 IN 2004      94 IN 2012
YUMA         99 IN 1934      100 IN 2011

&&

.AVIATION...
SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA INCLUDING KPHX...KIWA...AND KSDL...AND
SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA AND SOUTHWEST ARIZONA INCLUDING KIPL AND KBLH...

WEAK LOW PRESSURE PASSING WELL TO OUR SOUTH IS PUSHING SCT-BKN MID-
HIGH LEVEL CIGS OVER THE PHX AREA THIS AFTERNOON. THESE CIGS ARE
EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH THIS EVENING...THEN BECOME FEW-SCT LATE
TONIGHT AND ON TUES AS THE AFOMENTIONED LOW MOVES OFF TO THE EAST.
MAINLY CLEAR SKIES TO PREVAIL OVER THE SE CA TERMINALS THROUGH THE
TAF PERIOD. LIGHT WINDS TONIGHT AND EARLY TUESDAY ARE EXPECTED TO
PICK UP FROM THE SOUTHWEST AT THE PHX AREA TERMINALS AND AT
KIPL...AND PICK UP FROM THE SOUTH AT KBLH ON TUES AFTERNOON AS
ANOTHER WEATHER DISTURBANCE APPROACHING FROM THE WEST BEGINS TO
TIGHTEN SFC PRESSURE GRADIENTS OVER THE REGION...WITH SUSTAINED
WINDS RISING INTO THE 12-15KT RANGE BY LATE AFTERNOON ON TUESDAY AT
ALL OF THE TAF SITES.

AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDED TAFS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...
A SERIES OF WEAK PACIFIC WEATHER DISTURBANCES WILL MOVE ACROSS THE
WESTERN STATES JUST NORTH OF AZ...RESULTING IN CONSIDERABLE HIGH
CLOUDS AT TIMES WITH A COOLING TREND. ONE DISTURBANCE
THURSDAY/THURSDAY NIGHT WILL PRODUCE GUSTY NORTH WINDS 20 TO 30 MPH
IN SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA AND THE COLORADO RIVER VALLEY...STRONGEST
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY AFTERNOONS. GUSTY NORTH WINDS AND MINIMUM
RELATIVE HUMIDITIES IN THE 5 PERCENT RANGE MAY LEAD TO FIRE WEATHER
CONCERNS THURSDAY AND FRIDAY AFTERNOONS IN SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA AND
THE COLORADO RIVER VALLEY. OTHERWISE MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITIES WILL
REMAIN IN THE FIVE PERCENT RANGE THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD FRIDAY
THROUGH SUNDAY. OVERNIGHT RECOVERY WILL BE GOOD EXCEPT FOR THE BREEZY
PERIOD THURSDAY NIGHT.

&&

.PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AZ...NONE.
CA...NONE.
&&

$$

VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/PHOENIX

DISCUSSION...PERCHA/LEINS/NOLTE
CLIMATE...NOLTE/MO
AVIATION...PERCHA
FIRE WEATHER...VASQUEZ



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