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000
FXUS65 KFGZ 102232
AFDFGZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ
330 PM MST WED FEB 10 2016

.SYNOPSIS...STRONG HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE WESTERN STATES
THROUGH NEXT TUESDAY. EXPECT MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND WARM WEATHER
ACROSS NORTHERN ARIZONA. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE 10 TO 15 DEGREES
ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH NEXT TUESDAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...THE BAND OF SCT-BKN CIRRUS OVER NRN AZ THIS AFTERNOON
WILL MOVE EASTWARD TONIGHT. OTHERWISE...LITTLE CHANGE IN THE
FORECAST AS THE RIDGE OF STEEL TO REMAIN OVER THE WESTERN U.S.
THROUGH NEXT TUESDAY. THE DRY AND WARM AIR MASS WILL DELIVER MOSTLY
CLEAR SKIES AND WELL ABOVE NORMAL DAYTIME TEMPERATURES INTO THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. NEAR RECORD MAX TEMPS ARE FORECAST FOR THE HIGH
COUNTRY TOMORROW.

PROGS STILL SHOW A FAST MOVING SHORTWAVE BRUSHING ARIZONA ON
SUNDAY...BUT THE GUSTY NORTHEAST WIND POTENTIAL IS ON THE DECREASE.
THE RIDGE AXIS AMPLIFIES ALONG THE WEST COAST NEXT MONDAY FOR
CONTINUED WARMTH AND LIGHT WINDS. PROGS DO HAVE A RETURN TO SW FLOW
ALOFT WEDNESDAY AND WE SHOULD INCREASING MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS
AND BREEZY S-SW SFC WINDS FOR THE AFTERNOON.

&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 00Z PACKAGE...LIGHT WINDS AND VFR CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. SCT-BKN CIRRUS TO DECREASE FROM
WEST TO EAST TONIGHT. AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR TAF
AMENDMENTS.

&&

.FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC...DL
AVIATION...DL

FOR NORTHERN ARIZONA WEATHER INFORMATION VISIT
WEATHER.GOV/FLAGSTAFF



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000
FXUS65 KPSR 102156
AFDPSR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PHOENIX AZ
256 PM MST WED FEB 10 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN THE DOMINANT WEATHER FEATURE OVER THE
SOUTHWESTERN UNITED STATES INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. THIS WILL RESULT IN
A PROLONGED PERIOD OF SUNNY SKIES...MUCH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES...
RELATIVELY LIGHT WINDS...AND LOW HUMIDITY VALUES.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
VERY WARM DAY ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST...WITH VALUES IN THE 80S ACROSS
THE LOWER DESERTS. THESE VALUES ARE MORE TYPICAL OF APRIL THAN
FEBRUARY. AS MENTIONED EARLIER...THERMAL VARIABLES ON THE KFGZ AND
KTWC 10.12Z RAOBS WERE NEAR RECORD VALUES...SUPPORTING THE VERY WARM
FORECAST. POSSIBLY PROVIDING SOME RELIEF...A PATCH OF HIGH CLOUDS WAS
MOVING ACROSS THE REGION WITH THE TAIL END OF A LOW AMPLITUDE SHORT
WAVE RIDING THROUGH THE LONG WAVE RIDGE.

NOT MUCH DISAGREEMENT SEEN IN THE DETERMINISTIC AND ENSEMBLE MEMBERS
THROUGH THE NEXT WEEK. GFS REMAINS STEADY WITH THE SOLUTION OF THE
LONG WAVE RIDGE REMAINING IN PLACE OVER THE WEST COAST INTO NEXT
WEEK. THERE IS AGREEMENT ON A SOMEWHAT STRONGER SHORT WAVE TRYING TO
STRUGGLE ITS WAY THROUGH...BUT THE ONLY IMPACT WILL LIKELY BE AN
INCREASE IN HIGH CLOUDS...MINOR MODULATION OF TEMPERATURES...AND AN
INCREASE IN NORTHERLY WINDS ALONG THE COLORADO RIVER VALLEY THIS
WEEKEND. BUT JUST AS THIS SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH AND SLIGHTLY
SUPPRESSES THE RIDGE...IT QUICKLY REBOUNDS AS ANOTHER STRONG ANTI-
CYCLONE DEVELOPS AND MOVES IN FROM THE NE PAC.

TEMPERATURES WILL STILL REMAIN QUITE WARM...THE GEFS BASED
EXTREME FORECAST INDEX CONTINUES TO HIGHLIGHT SURFACE TEMPERATURES
ABOVE THE 95TH PERCENTILE RIGHT ON THROUGH THE NEXT SEVEN DAYS. NAEFS
DATA SHOW THAT THE COOLEST 700 MB TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO DROP
TO ON SATURDAY STILL KEEP THEM IN THE 90TH PERCENTILE OF THE CFSR
CLIMATE. WHEN THE NEXT RIDGE ROLLS IN EARLY NEXT WEEK...THEY CLIMB
BACK UP TO RECORD HIGH LEVELS. THAT IS AN IMPRESSIVE SIGNAL TO SEE IN
THE D6-8 FORECAST PERIOD. THE GEFS 850 MB MEAN TEMP IS 1-2C WARMER
EARLY NEXT THAN TODAY...AND SOME MEMBERS ARE AS HIGH AS NEARLY 20C.
INTERESTINGLY...IF OUR CURRENT 7-DAY FORECAST IS ABSOLUTELY PERFECT
FOR KPHX...THE AVERAGE MAX TEMP OF 87.1F WOULD RANK AS THE 2ND
WARMEST 7-DAY PERIOD ON RECORD DURING THE MONTH OF FEBRUARY BEHIND
THE WEEK ENDING 28 FEB 1986 WITH 87.4.

PERHAPS A GLIMMER OF HOPE STILL AS WE GO THROUGH THE NEXT
WEEK...GFS/PARA-GFS/NAEFS ARE STILL POINTING TO AT LEAST SOME RAIN
POSSIBLE TOWARD THE END OF NEXT WEEK AS A STRONG TROUGH APPROACHES
THE WEST COAST.

&&

.AVIATION...
SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA INCLUDING KPHX...KIWA...AND SDL...AND
SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA/SOUTHWEST ARIZONA INCLUDING KIPL AND KBLH...

AFTERNOON SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A FEW PATCHY TO SCATTERED HIGH
CLOUDS PASSING OVER THE REGION. EXPECT MOSTLY CLEAR TO PARTLY SKIES
WITH OCCASIONAL SCATTERED HIGH CLOUDS IN ALL AREAS. IN THE PHOENIX
AREA WINDS WILL BE OCCASIONALLY CALM OR LIGHT AND VARIABLE AND
FOLLOW NORMAL DIURNAL SWINGS. SOME GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT THE ONSET
OF AFTERNOON WESTERLIES AT KPHX WILL OCCUR EARLIER THIS AFTERNOON
THAN ORIGINALLY ANTICIPATED. OTHERWISE KBLH CAN EXPECT LIGHT WINDS
FAVORING THE NORTH OR NORTHEAST WHILE KIPL WILL HAVE LIGHT
WESTERLIES WITH BOTH LOCATIONS SUBJECT TO LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS.

AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDED TAFS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY... AN UNSEASONABLY STRONG HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE
WILL REMAIN IN PLACE OVER THE WESTERN STATES THIS WEEK AND INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK. THIS WILL LEAD TO A PERSISTENT PERIOD OF WELL ABOVE
NORMALS HIGH TEMPS...WITH READINGS PEAKING 10 TO 15 DEGREES ABOVE
SEASONAL NORMALS. MANY LOWER ELEVATION AND DESERT SITES WILL SEE A
STRETCH OF DAYS WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES WARMING PAST THE 80 DEGREE
MARK WITH WARMER DESERTS RISING TO RECORD LEVELS...IN THE UPPER 80S.
RELATIVE HUMIDITY WILL ALSO REMAIN ON THE DRIER AND BELOW NORMAL
SIDE DURING THE WEEK WITH MIN VALUES TYPICALLY IN THE LOW TO MIDDLE
TEENS.

LIGHT WINDS ARE EXPECTED FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...AND WILL
GENERALLY FOLLOW TYPICAL DRAINAGE/SLOPE DRIVEN HEADINGS WITH LIGHT
SPEEDS. INCREASED NORTHERLY BREEZES ARE EXPECTED OVER THE WESTERN
DESERTS...ESPECIALLY ALONG THE LOWER COLORADO RIVER VALLEY...SUNDAY
INTO MONDAY. SUNNY DAYS AND CLEAR NIGHTS WILL BE REPLACED BY
VARIABLE HIGH CLOUDINESS STARTING FRIDAY AND CONTINUING THROUGH THE
WEEKEND.

&&

.CLIMATE...

                   PHOENIX         |        YUMA
             FCST | RECORD /YEAR/  | FCST | RECORD /YEAR/

THU FEB 11     87 | 83 /1951/      |   87 | 86 /1971/
FRI FEB 12     88 | 84 /1988/      |   86 | 87 /1957/
SAT FEB 13     87 | 88 /1957/      |   86 | 93 /1957/
SUN FEB 14     86 | 85 /2014/      |   84 | 94 /1957/
MON FEB 15     86 | 86 /2014/      |   85 | 89 /2014/
TUE FEB 16     88 | 84 /2014/      |   86 | 88 /1981/

&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT BASED ON STANDARD OPERATING
PROCEDURES.

&&

.PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AZ...NONE.
CA...NONE.
&&

$$

VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/PHOENIX

DISCUSSION...INIGUEZ
AVIATION...SAWTELLE
FIRE WEATHER...NOLTE/CB



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000
FXUS65 KTWC 102124
AFDTWC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ
224 PM MST WED FEB 10 2016

.SYNOPSIS...STRONG HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT OVER THE WESTERN STATES WILL
PROVIDE DRY CONDITIONS WITH WELL ABOVE AVERAGE DAYTIME TEMPERATURES
THROUGH NEXT TUESDAY. EXPECT RECORD OR NEAR RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES
FOR SOME LOCATIONS AS WELL...ESPECIALLY THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...THE HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT THAT HAS BEEN IMPACTING OUR
WEATHER PATTERN WILL PERSIST FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. EXPECT DRY
CONDITIONS AND DAYTIME TEMPERATURES 10 TO 15 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL
INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. WE ARE ON TRACK FOR DAYTIME TEMPS
TODAY TO TOP OUT WITHIN A DEGREE OR TWO OF THOSE WE SAW ON TUESDAY.
DAYTIME TEMPS SHOULD WARM A COUPLE OF DEGREES FURTHER THURSDAY AND
INTO THE WEEKEND. CURRENT IR IMAGERY SHOWS A FEW CIRRIFORM CLOUDS
BEGINNING TO ENTER OUR FORECAST AREA FROM THE WEST. THESE ARE
EXPECTED TO MOVE EWD THROUGH THE AREA THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT.
CLOUDINESS SHOULD NOT BE SIGNIFICANT ENOUGH TO IMPACT OUR
TEMPERATURES. OTHERWISE MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH
FRIDAY.

A QUASI-STATIONARY STRONG UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WAS CENTERED OVER
SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA THIS AFTERNOON WHILE THE CORRESPONDING RIDGE
AXIS EXTENDED NWD INTO WESTERN CANADA. THIS FEATURE WILL PERSIST
THROUGH FRIDAY WHEN IT STARTS TO FLATTEN OUT WITH A SHORTWAVE TROUGH
MOVING INTO THE PACIFIC NW. THE UPPER LOW WILL PROGRESS EWD THROUGH
THE WEEKEND BUT WILL REMAIN TOO FAR NORTH OF OUR AREA TO HAVE ANY
MAJOR IMPACT. ON TUESDAY...ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL RIDGE MOVES INTO THE
AREA FROM THE WEST. AFTER THE RIDGE PUSHES OUT OF THE REGION
WED/THURS THE MODEL OUTPUTS DIFFER SIGNIFICANTLY. THE 10/12Z GFS
SHOWS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVING INTO THE AREA FROM THE EASTERN
PACIFIC/WEST OF CA WHICH COULD BRING US OUR NEXT CHANCE OF
PRECIPITATION LATE NEXT WEEK...WHERE THE 10/12Z ECMWF BRINGS THE
TROUGH IN OVER THE PACIFIC NW...LEAVING OUR AREA DEVOID OF
PRECIPITATION. SO...IT IS STILL TOO EARLY TO REALLY TALK MUCH ABOUT
PRECIPITATION RETURNING TO THE FORECAST AREA AT THIS POINT.

&&

.AVIATION...VALID THRU 12/00Z.
GENERALLY SKC WITH SOME HIGH CLOUDS PASSING THROUGH THIS EVENING AND
TONIGHT...BECOMING SCT ABOVE 25K FT AT TIMES. EAST TO SOUTHEAST
SURFACE WINDS 5 TO 10 KTS...WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 15 KTS IN THE LATE
MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON THURSDAY. AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT
UPDATED FOR TAF AMENDMENTS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...DRY CONDITIONS WITH WELL ABOVE AVERAGE AFTERNOON
TEMPERATURES CONTINUING THROUGH THE WEEKEND. AS A RESULT RELATIVE
HUMIDITY VALUES WILL REMAIN BELOW NORMAL AS WELL WITH MIN RHS IN THE
7 TO 15 PERCENT RANGE IN THE VALLEYS WITH LESS THAN IDEAL NIGHTTIME
RECOVERIES.  LOCALIZED BREEZY EAST WINDS MAY BE POSSIBLE AGAIN
THURSDAY MORNING...WITH THE PEAK WIND SPEEDS ACROSS THE VALLEYS
OCCURRING FROM THE MID MORNING TO EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS QUICKLY
DIMINISHING MID AFTERNOON ONWARD. LIGHTER WINDS ARE EXPECTED MIDDAY
THURSDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...YOUTUBE...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/TUCSON

DISCUSSION...HICKFORD
AVIATION/FIRE WEATHER...HUMPHREYS



000
FXUS65 KTWC 102124
AFDTWC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ
224 PM MST WED FEB 10 2016

.SYNOPSIS...STRONG HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT OVER THE WESTERN STATES WILL
PROVIDE DRY CONDITIONS WITH WELL ABOVE AVERAGE DAYTIME TEMPERATURES
THROUGH NEXT TUESDAY. EXPECT RECORD OR NEAR RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES
FOR SOME LOCATIONS AS WELL...ESPECIALLY THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...THE HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT THAT HAS BEEN IMPACTING OUR
WEATHER PATTERN WILL PERSIST FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. EXPECT DRY
CONDITIONS AND DAYTIME TEMPERATURES 10 TO 15 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL
INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. WE ARE ON TRACK FOR DAYTIME TEMPS
TODAY TO TOP OUT WITHIN A DEGREE OR TWO OF THOSE WE SAW ON TUESDAY.
DAYTIME TEMPS SHOULD WARM A COUPLE OF DEGREES FURTHER THURSDAY AND
INTO THE WEEKEND. CURRENT IR IMAGERY SHOWS A FEW CIRRIFORM CLOUDS
BEGINNING TO ENTER OUR FORECAST AREA FROM THE WEST. THESE ARE
EXPECTED TO MOVE EWD THROUGH THE AREA THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT.
CLOUDINESS SHOULD NOT BE SIGNIFICANT ENOUGH TO IMPACT OUR
TEMPERATURES. OTHERWISE MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH
FRIDAY.

A QUASI-STATIONARY STRONG UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WAS CENTERED OVER
SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA THIS AFTERNOON WHILE THE CORRESPONDING RIDGE
AXIS EXTENDED NWD INTO WESTERN CANADA. THIS FEATURE WILL PERSIST
THROUGH FRIDAY WHEN IT STARTS TO FLATTEN OUT WITH A SHORTWAVE TROUGH
MOVING INTO THE PACIFIC NW. THE UPPER LOW WILL PROGRESS EWD THROUGH
THE WEEKEND BUT WILL REMAIN TOO FAR NORTH OF OUR AREA TO HAVE ANY
MAJOR IMPACT. ON TUESDAY...ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL RIDGE MOVES INTO THE
AREA FROM THE WEST. AFTER THE RIDGE PUSHES OUT OF THE REGION
WED/THURS THE MODEL OUTPUTS DIFFER SIGNIFICANTLY. THE 10/12Z GFS
SHOWS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVING INTO THE AREA FROM THE EASTERN
PACIFIC/WEST OF CA WHICH COULD BRING US OUR NEXT CHANCE OF
PRECIPITATION LATE NEXT WEEK...WHERE THE 10/12Z ECMWF BRINGS THE
TROUGH IN OVER THE PACIFIC NW...LEAVING OUR AREA DEVOID OF
PRECIPITATION. SO...IT IS STILL TOO EARLY TO REALLY TALK MUCH ABOUT
PRECIPITATION RETURNING TO THE FORECAST AREA AT THIS POINT.

&&

.AVIATION...VALID THRU 12/00Z.
GENERALLY SKC WITH SOME HIGH CLOUDS PASSING THROUGH THIS EVENING AND
TONIGHT...BECOMING SCT ABOVE 25K FT AT TIMES. EAST TO SOUTHEAST
SURFACE WINDS 5 TO 10 KTS...WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 15 KTS IN THE LATE
MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON THURSDAY. AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT
UPDATED FOR TAF AMENDMENTS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...DRY CONDITIONS WITH WELL ABOVE AVERAGE AFTERNOON
TEMPERATURES CONTINUING THROUGH THE WEEKEND. AS A RESULT RELATIVE
HUMIDITY VALUES WILL REMAIN BELOW NORMAL AS WELL WITH MIN RHS IN THE
7 TO 15 PERCENT RANGE IN THE VALLEYS WITH LESS THAN IDEAL NIGHTTIME
RECOVERIES.  LOCALIZED BREEZY EAST WINDS MAY BE POSSIBLE AGAIN
THURSDAY MORNING...WITH THE PEAK WIND SPEEDS ACROSS THE VALLEYS
OCCURRING FROM THE MID MORNING TO EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS QUICKLY
DIMINISHING MID AFTERNOON ONWARD. LIGHTER WINDS ARE EXPECTED MIDDAY
THURSDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...YOUTUBE...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/TUCSON

DISCUSSION...HICKFORD
AVIATION/FIRE WEATHER...HUMPHREYS




000
FXUS65 KFGZ 101643
AFDFGZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ
940 AM MST WED FEB 10 2016

.SYNOPSIS...STRONG HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE WESTERN STATES
THROUGH THIS WEEKEND. EXPECT MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND WARM WEATHER
ACROSS NORTHERN ARIZONA. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE 10 TO 15 DEGREES
ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH AT LEAST SATURDAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION... WE WILL SEE SCATTERED CIRRUS PASS OVERHEAD TODAY.
SHORT TERM FORECAST IS IN GOOD SHAPE. THE LONG TERM FORECAST THROUGH
AT LEAST NEXT WEDS NIGHT IS VERY DRY AND WARM.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION 213 AM... HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE WESTERN UNITED
STATES WILL DOMINATE THE WEATHER ACROSS ARIZONA OVER THE COMING
WEEK. A DRY AND WARM AIR MASS WILL DELIVER MAINLY CLEAR SKIES AND
WELL ABOVE NORMAL DAYTIME TEMPERATURES INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
A FAST MOVING SHORTWAVE COULD BRUSH ARIZONA ON SUNDAY/MONDAY
POTENTIALLY KICKING UP GUSTY NORTHEAST WINDS FROM THE MOGOLLON RIM
SOUTHWARD BUT THAT IS ABOUT IT. FAIR WEATHER LOVERS CAN REJOICE! THE
REST WILL HAVE TO ANXIOUSLY AWAIT.

&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 182Z PACKAGE...LIGHT WINDS AND VFR CONDITIONS
ARE EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED
FOR TAF AMENDMENTS.

&&

.FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC...DL    MCCOLLUM
AVIATION...DL

FOR NORTHERN ARIZONA WEATHER INFORMATION VISIT
WEATHER.GOV/FLAGSTAFF




000
FXUS65 KPSR 101607
AFDPSR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PHOENIX AZ
907 AM MST WED FEB 10 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN THE DOMINANT WEATHER FEATURE OVER THE
SOUTHWESTERN UNITED STATES INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. THIS WILL RESULT IN
A PROLONGED PERIOD OF SUNNY SKIES...MUCH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES...
RELATIVELY LIGHT WINDS...AND LOW HUMIDITY VALUES.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
NOTABLE THIS MORNING WERE THE 10.12Z RAOBS FROM KFGZ AND KTWC...BOTH
FEATURING HEIGHTS AND TEMPERATURES RIGHT AT RECORD LEVELS AT 700 MB
AND 500 MB. CLEARLY POINTS TO ANOTHER VERY WARM LATE WINTER DAY
ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST. ADJUSTED FORECAST TEMPERATURES SLIGHTLY TO
BETTER ACCOUNT FOR 24-HOUR TRENDS. PHOENIX WILL BE VERY CLOSE TO A
RECORD TODAY...YUMA/S RECORD FOR THE DAY IS OUT OF REACH.

.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...

TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY...WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY CLEARLY SHOWS A
HIGH AMPLITUDE RIDGE IN PLACE ALONG THE WEST COAST OF THE UNITED
STATES...AND A DEEP BROAD TROUGH COVERING THE EASTERN CONUS THIS
MORNING. REGIONAL UPPER AIR PLOTS PLACE 583-585DM 500MB HEIGHTS OVER
ARIZONA...ALONG WITH ANOMALOUSLY WARM TEMPERATURE PROFILES IN BOTH
850MB AND 700MB LEVELS...ALL OF WHICH CONTRIBUTED TO THE RECORD WARM
TEMPERATURES AT OBSERVED AT SOME SITES ACROSS OUR CWA...INCLUDING
PHOENIX SKY HARBOR YESTERDAY AFTERNOON. ALL MODELS SUGGEST THAT THIS
RIDGE PATTERN CONFIGURATION WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF
THE WORK WEEK OVER THE DESERT SOUTHWEST UNTIL A MORE ROBUST EASTERN
PACIFIC SHORTWAVE DAMPENS THE RIDGE AXIS OVER THE WEEKEND. EXPECT
LITTLE CHANGE IN OUR MAX TEMPERATURES THROUGH FRIDAY...WITH A
PERSISTENCE FORECAST IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S IN THE OFFING FOR THE
LOWER DESERTS...AND AFTERNOON HIGHS FLIRTING WITH OR BREAKING
RECORDS EACH DAY. SEE CLIMATE SECTION BELOW FOR FORECAST AND RECORD
DETAILS.

SATURDAY/SUNDAY...THE SOUTHERN END OF A DRY UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE
PASSES THROUGH NORTHERN ARIZONA. THIS WILL SUPPORT A DEGREE OR TWO
OF COOLING EACH AFTERNOON...THE SLIGHT DIP IN TEMPERATURES AIDED IN
PART BY SOME HIGH LEVEL CLOUDINESS.

MONDAY/TUESDAY AND BEYOND...THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL QUICKLY
REBOUND EARLY NEXT WEEK ALONG WITH THE WARMTH AND ABOVE-NORMAL
TEMPERATURES. BY MIDWEEK...PATTERN PREDICTABILITY DROPS OFF AND
ENSEMBLE SPREAD INCREASES...BUT THERE ARE INDICATIONS IN THE CURRENT
DETERMINISTIC MODEL RUNS THAT ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL
APPROACH THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. HOW FAR SOUTH IN LATITUDE THE TROUGH
WILL DROP AND INFLUENCE OUR WEATHER PATTERN AFFECT REMAINS TO BE
SEEN.

&&

.AVIATION...
SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA INCLUDING KPHX...KIWA...AND SDL...AND
SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA/SOUTHWEST ARIZONA INCLUDING KIPL AND KBLH...

HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT...AND A VERY DRY AIRMASS...TO KEEP SKIES CLEAR
AT ALL OF THE TAF SITES THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HRS...AND BEYOND.
WEAKENING SFC PRESSURE GRADIENTS TO KEEP WINDS FOR THE MOST PART ON
THE LIGHT SIDE...8 KTS OR LESS...AND ALLOW THEM TO FOLLOW TYPICAL
DIURNAL TRENDS...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF A A PERIOD OF SLIGHTLY
STRONGER EASTERLY BREEZES AT KPHX DURING THE LATE MORNING/EARLY
AFTERNOON PERIOD TODAY. WINDS WILL AGAIN FAVOR THE NORTH AT KBLH
TODAY WITH PERIODS OF LIGHT/VARIABLE OR CHANGING WIND DIRECTIONS.

ALTHOUGH LOW LEVEL EASTERLY WINDS IN THE PHOENIX AREA SHOULD NOT
WARRANT LLWS IN THE TAFS...WE MAY SEE A BRIEF PERIOD...THRU 15Z OR
SO...WHERE SHEAR MIGHT APPROACH LLWS THRESHOLDS ESPECIALLY WHEN
SURFACE WINDS DECREASE TO CALM SUCH AS AT KPHX.

AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDED TAFS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY... AN UNSEASONABLY STRONG HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE
WILL REMAIN IN PLACE OVER THE WESTERN STATES THIS WEEK AND INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK. THIS WILL LEAD TO A PERSISTENT PERIOD OF WELL ABOVE
NORMALS HIGH TEMPS...WITH READINGS PEAKING 10 TO 15 DEGREES ABOVE
SEASONAL NORMALS. MANY LOWER ELEVATION AND DESERT SITES WILL SEE A
STRETCH OF DAYS WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES WARMING PAST THE 80 DEGREE
MARK WITH WARMER DESERTS RISING TO RECORD LEVELS...IN THE UPPER 80S.
RELATIVE HUMIDITY WILL ALSO REMAIN ON THE DRIER AND BELOW NORMAL
SIDE DURING THE WEEK WITH MIN VALUES TYPICALLY IN THE LOW TO MIDDLE
TEENS.

LIGHT WINDS ARE EXPECTED FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...AND WILL
GENERALLY FOLLOW TYPICAL DRAINAGE/SLOPE DRIVEN HEADINGS WITH LIGHT
SPEEDS. INCREASED NORTHERLY BREEZES ARE EXPECTED OVER THE WESTERN
DESERTS...ESPECIALLY ALONG THE LOWER COLORADO RIVER VALLEY...SUNDAY
INTO MONDAY. SUNNY DAYS AND CLEAR NIGHTS WILL BE REPLACED BY
VARIABLE HIGH CLOUDINESS STARTING FRIDAY AND CONTINUING THROUGH THE
WEEKEND.

&&

.CLIMATE...

                   PHOENIX         |        YUMA
             FCST | RECORD /YEAR/  | FCST | RECORD /YEAR/

WED FEB 10     86 | 87 /1951/      |   86 | 93 /1951/
THU FEB 11     87 | 83 /1951/      |   86 | 86 /1971/
FRI FEB 12     87 | 84 /1988/      |   85 | 87 /1957/
SAT FEB 13     86 | 88 /1957/      |   85 | 93 /1957/
SUN FEB 14     85 | 85 /2014/      |   83 | 94 /1957/
MON FEB 15     84 | 86 /2014/      |   84 | 89 /2014/
TUE FEB 16     86 | 84 /2014/      |   85 | 88 /1981/

&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT BASED ON STANDARD OPERATING
PROCEDURES.

&&

.PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AZ...NONE.
CA...NONE.
&&

$$

VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/PHOENIX

DISCUSSION...INIGUEZ/MEYERS
AVIATION...CB/PERCHA
FIRE WEATHER...NOLTE/CB




000
FXUS65 KPSR 101607
AFDPSR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PHOENIX AZ
907 AM MST WED FEB 10 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN THE DOMINANT WEATHER FEATURE OVER THE
SOUTHWESTERN UNITED STATES INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. THIS WILL RESULT IN
A PROLONGED PERIOD OF SUNNY SKIES...MUCH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES...
RELATIVELY LIGHT WINDS...AND LOW HUMIDITY VALUES.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
NOTABLE THIS MORNING WERE THE 10.12Z RAOBS FROM KFGZ AND KTWC...BOTH
FEATURING HEIGHTS AND TEMPERATURES RIGHT AT RECORD LEVELS AT 700 MB
AND 500 MB. CLEARLY POINTS TO ANOTHER VERY WARM LATE WINTER DAY
ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST. ADJUSTED FORECAST TEMPERATURES SLIGHTLY TO
BETTER ACCOUNT FOR 24-HOUR TRENDS. PHOENIX WILL BE VERY CLOSE TO A
RECORD TODAY...YUMA/S RECORD FOR THE DAY IS OUT OF REACH.

.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...

TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY...WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY CLEARLY SHOWS A
HIGH AMPLITUDE RIDGE IN PLACE ALONG THE WEST COAST OF THE UNITED
STATES...AND A DEEP BROAD TROUGH COVERING THE EASTERN CONUS THIS
MORNING. REGIONAL UPPER AIR PLOTS PLACE 583-585DM 500MB HEIGHTS OVER
ARIZONA...ALONG WITH ANOMALOUSLY WARM TEMPERATURE PROFILES IN BOTH
850MB AND 700MB LEVELS...ALL OF WHICH CONTRIBUTED TO THE RECORD WARM
TEMPERATURES AT OBSERVED AT SOME SITES ACROSS OUR CWA...INCLUDING
PHOENIX SKY HARBOR YESTERDAY AFTERNOON. ALL MODELS SUGGEST THAT THIS
RIDGE PATTERN CONFIGURATION WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF
THE WORK WEEK OVER THE DESERT SOUTHWEST UNTIL A MORE ROBUST EASTERN
PACIFIC SHORTWAVE DAMPENS THE RIDGE AXIS OVER THE WEEKEND. EXPECT
LITTLE CHANGE IN OUR MAX TEMPERATURES THROUGH FRIDAY...WITH A
PERSISTENCE FORECAST IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S IN THE OFFING FOR THE
LOWER DESERTS...AND AFTERNOON HIGHS FLIRTING WITH OR BREAKING
RECORDS EACH DAY. SEE CLIMATE SECTION BELOW FOR FORECAST AND RECORD
DETAILS.

SATURDAY/SUNDAY...THE SOUTHERN END OF A DRY UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE
PASSES THROUGH NORTHERN ARIZONA. THIS WILL SUPPORT A DEGREE OR TWO
OF COOLING EACH AFTERNOON...THE SLIGHT DIP IN TEMPERATURES AIDED IN
PART BY SOME HIGH LEVEL CLOUDINESS.

MONDAY/TUESDAY AND BEYOND...THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL QUICKLY
REBOUND EARLY NEXT WEEK ALONG WITH THE WARMTH AND ABOVE-NORMAL
TEMPERATURES. BY MIDWEEK...PATTERN PREDICTABILITY DROPS OFF AND
ENSEMBLE SPREAD INCREASES...BUT THERE ARE INDICATIONS IN THE CURRENT
DETERMINISTIC MODEL RUNS THAT ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL
APPROACH THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. HOW FAR SOUTH IN LATITUDE THE TROUGH
WILL DROP AND INFLUENCE OUR WEATHER PATTERN AFFECT REMAINS TO BE
SEEN.

&&

.AVIATION...
SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA INCLUDING KPHX...KIWA...AND SDL...AND
SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA/SOUTHWEST ARIZONA INCLUDING KIPL AND KBLH...

HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT...AND A VERY DRY AIRMASS...TO KEEP SKIES CLEAR
AT ALL OF THE TAF SITES THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HRS...AND BEYOND.
WEAKENING SFC PRESSURE GRADIENTS TO KEEP WINDS FOR THE MOST PART ON
THE LIGHT SIDE...8 KTS OR LESS...AND ALLOW THEM TO FOLLOW TYPICAL
DIURNAL TRENDS...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF A A PERIOD OF SLIGHTLY
STRONGER EASTERLY BREEZES AT KPHX DURING THE LATE MORNING/EARLY
AFTERNOON PERIOD TODAY. WINDS WILL AGAIN FAVOR THE NORTH AT KBLH
TODAY WITH PERIODS OF LIGHT/VARIABLE OR CHANGING WIND DIRECTIONS.

ALTHOUGH LOW LEVEL EASTERLY WINDS IN THE PHOENIX AREA SHOULD NOT
WARRANT LLWS IN THE TAFS...WE MAY SEE A BRIEF PERIOD...THRU 15Z OR
SO...WHERE SHEAR MIGHT APPROACH LLWS THRESHOLDS ESPECIALLY WHEN
SURFACE WINDS DECREASE TO CALM SUCH AS AT KPHX.

AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDED TAFS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY... AN UNSEASONABLY STRONG HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE
WILL REMAIN IN PLACE OVER THE WESTERN STATES THIS WEEK AND INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK. THIS WILL LEAD TO A PERSISTENT PERIOD OF WELL ABOVE
NORMALS HIGH TEMPS...WITH READINGS PEAKING 10 TO 15 DEGREES ABOVE
SEASONAL NORMALS. MANY LOWER ELEVATION AND DESERT SITES WILL SEE A
STRETCH OF DAYS WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES WARMING PAST THE 80 DEGREE
MARK WITH WARMER DESERTS RISING TO RECORD LEVELS...IN THE UPPER 80S.
RELATIVE HUMIDITY WILL ALSO REMAIN ON THE DRIER AND BELOW NORMAL
SIDE DURING THE WEEK WITH MIN VALUES TYPICALLY IN THE LOW TO MIDDLE
TEENS.

LIGHT WINDS ARE EXPECTED FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...AND WILL
GENERALLY FOLLOW TYPICAL DRAINAGE/SLOPE DRIVEN HEADINGS WITH LIGHT
SPEEDS. INCREASED NORTHERLY BREEZES ARE EXPECTED OVER THE WESTERN
DESERTS...ESPECIALLY ALONG THE LOWER COLORADO RIVER VALLEY...SUNDAY
INTO MONDAY. SUNNY DAYS AND CLEAR NIGHTS WILL BE REPLACED BY
VARIABLE HIGH CLOUDINESS STARTING FRIDAY AND CONTINUING THROUGH THE
WEEKEND.

&&

.CLIMATE...

                   PHOENIX         |        YUMA
             FCST | RECORD /YEAR/  | FCST | RECORD /YEAR/

WED FEB 10     86 | 87 /1951/      |   86 | 93 /1951/
THU FEB 11     87 | 83 /1951/      |   86 | 86 /1971/
FRI FEB 12     87 | 84 /1988/      |   85 | 87 /1957/
SAT FEB 13     86 | 88 /1957/      |   85 | 93 /1957/
SUN FEB 14     85 | 85 /2014/      |   83 | 94 /1957/
MON FEB 15     84 | 86 /2014/      |   84 | 89 /2014/
TUE FEB 16     86 | 84 /2014/      |   85 | 88 /1981/

&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT BASED ON STANDARD OPERATING
PROCEDURES.

&&

.PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AZ...NONE.
CA...NONE.
&&

$$

VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/PHOENIX

DISCUSSION...INIGUEZ/MEYERS
AVIATION...CB/PERCHA
FIRE WEATHER...NOLTE/CB



000
FXUS65 KTWC 101539
AFDTWC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ
839 AM MST WED FEB 10 2016

.SYNOPSIS...STRONG HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT OVER THE WESTERN STATES WILL
PROVIDE DRY CONDITIONS WITH WELL ABOVE AVERAGE DAYTIME TEMPERATURES
THROUGH NEXT TUESDAY. EXPECT RECORD OR NEAR RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES
FOR SOME LOCATIONS AS WELL...ESPECIALLY THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...A QUASI-STATIONARY STRONG UPPER LEVEL HIGH WAS
CENTERED OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN CONUS THIS MORNING AND A RIDGE AXIS
EXTENDED NWD INTO WESTERN CANADA. THE 10/12Z KTWC SOUNDING LOOKS
VERY SIMILAR TO THAT OF TUESDAY SHOWING A VERY WARM AND DRY
ENVIRONMENT...WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES OF LESS THAN TWO TENTHS
OF AN INCH. THIS WILL TRANSLATE TO DAYTIME TEMPERATURES REACHING 10
TO 15 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL AGAIN TODAY. WITH THE RIDGE FIRMLY IN
PLACE EXPECT MAINLY CLEAR SKIES TODAY WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF JUST A
FEW HIGH CIRRIFORM CLOUDS THIS AFTERNOON. FOR FURTHER DETAILS ON THE
FORECAST BEYOND TODAY...PLEASE REFER TO THE PREVIOUS DISCUSSION.

&&

.AVIATION...VALID THRU 11/18Z.
SKC THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. EAST TO SOUTHEAST SURFACE WINDS 5
TO 15 KTS WITH GUSTS 15 TO 20 KTS IN THE LATE MORNING AND EARLY
AFTERNOON. AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR TAF AMENDMENTS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...DRY CONDITIONS WITH MUCH ABOVE AVERAGE AFTERNOON
TEMPERATURES CONTINUING INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. AS A RESULT RELATIVE
HUMIDITY VALUES WILL REMAIN BELOW NORMAL AS WELL WITH MIN RHS IN THE
7 TO 15 PERCENT RANGE IN THE VALLEYS WITH LESS THAN IDEAL NIGHTTIME
RECOVERIES. LOCALLY GUSTY EAST WINDS WILL CONTINUE TODAY...WITH THE
PEAK WIND SPEEDS ACROSS THE VALLEYS OCCURRING FROM THE MID MORNING
TO EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS QUICKLY DIMINISHING MID AFTERNOON ONWARD.
LIGHTER WINDS ARE EXPECTED THURSDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...THE UPPER RIDGE WILL REMAIN QUASI-STATIONARY INTO
THURSDAY...THEN MOVE EWD ACROSS SE ARIZONA FRI. EXPECT MAINLY CLEAR
SKIES THRU FRI ALTHOUGH SOME CIRRIFORM CLOUDS MAY MOVE ACROSS THE
AREA...MOST LIKELY LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THE UPPER RIDGE
WILL FLATTEN SAT AS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES EWD ACROSS THE PACIFIC
NW AND INTO THE NRN ROCKIES/GREAT BASIN REGION. THIS SHORTWAVE
TROUGH WILL THEN MOVE RAPIDLY SEWD ACROSS THE FOUR CORNERS REGION
AND INTO THE SRN CONUS PLAINS SUN. THE MAIN IMPACT FROM THIS SYSTEM
FOR SE ARIZONA WILL BE SOME INCREASE IN CIRRIFORM CLOUDS FOR MOSTLY
CLEAR SKIES TO PERHAPS PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES...AS WELL AS SOME VERY
MINOR COOLING.

A VERY DRY NWLY FLOW ALOFT REGIME WILL OCCUR MON AS STRONG HIGH
PRESSURE ALOFT BUILDS AGAIN NEAR THE SRN CALIFORNIA COAST. A VERY
DRY REGIME WILL BE MAINTAINED TUE AS THE UPPER RIDGE IS PROGGED TO
MOVE EWD INTO THE SWRN CONUS. ALTHOUGH BEYOND THE SCOPE OF THIS
FORECAST PACKAGE...HAVE NOTED THAT THE 10/00Z OPERATIONAL GFS/ECMWF
MAINTAINED PRECIP-FREE CONDITIONS ACROSS SE ARIZONA NEXT WED AS THE
NEXT UPPER TROUGH MOVES INTO THE PACIFIC NW AND EXTENDS SWD INTO
NRN/CENTRAL CALIFORNIA.

THEREAFTER...THERE WERE CONSIDERABLE DIFFERENCES BETWEEN THE
DETERMINISTIC GFS/ECMWF BY NEXT FRI (FEB 19). THE GFS DEPICTED
FAIRLY LARGE LIQUID PRECIP AMOUNTS ACROSS SRN ARIZONA IN RESPONSE TO
A DEEPENING UPPER LOW OVER SRN CALIFORNIA. HOWEVER...THE ECMWF
DEPICTED DRY CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE UNDER GENERALLY WLY FLOW ALOFT.
THUS...A SYSTEM SUFFICIENT TO GENERATE PRECIP MAY APPROACH THE AREA
SOMETIME LATE NEXT WEEK...BUT STILL WAY TOO EARLY TO GET EXCITED
ABOUT PRECIP RETURNING TO THIS FORECAST AREA WITH ANY DEGREE OF
CERTAINTY.

HIGH TEMPS TODAY WILL GENERALLY BE WITHIN A DEGREE-OR-TWO OF TEMPS
ACHIEVED TUE...AND WILL CONTINUE TO AVERAGE ABOUT 10-15 DEGS ABOVE
NORMAL. EXPECT A DEGREE-OR-SO OF DAILY WARMING THUR-FRI WITH RECORD
OR NEAR-RECORD HIGH TEMPS FOR SOME LOCALES. THERE WILL BE VIRTUALLY
NO CHANGE IN DAYTIME TEMPS SAT...THEN JUST A FEW DEGS OF COOLING
WILL OCCUR SUN IN RESPONSE TO THE PASSING SHORTWAVE TROUGH. DAYTIME
TEMPS WILL REMAIN WELL ABOVE SEASONAL NORMALS MON-TUE.

&&

.TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...YOUTUBE...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/TUCSON

DISCUSSION...HICKFORD
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...FRANCIS
AVIATION/FIRE WEATHER...CERNIGLIA




000
FXUS65 KPSR 101200 AAA
AFDPSR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PHOENIX AZ
500 AM MST WED FEB 10 2016

.UPDATE...UPDATED AVIATION AND FIRE WEATHER DISCUSSIONS.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN THE DOMINANT WEATHER FEATURE OVER THE
SOUTHWESTERN UNITED STATES THIS WEEK. THIS WILL RESULT IN A
PROLONGED PERIOD OF SUNNY SKIES...MUCH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES...
RELATIVELY LIGHT WINDS...AND LOW HUMIDITY VALUES.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY...WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY CLEARLY SHOWS A
HIGH AMPLITUDE RIDGE IN PLACE ALONG THE WEST COAST OF THE UNITED
STATES...AND A DEEP BROAD TROUGH COVERING THE EASTERN CONUS THIS
MORNING. REGIONAL UPPER AIR PLOTS PLACE 583-585DM 500MB HEIGHTS OVER
ARIZONA...ALONG WITH ANOMALOUSLY WARM TEMPERATURE PROFILES IN BOTH
850MB AND 700MB LEVELS...ALL OF WHICH CONTRIBUTED TO THE RECORD WARM
TEMPERATURES AT OBSERVED AT SOME SITES ACROSS OUR CWA...INCLUDING
PHOENIX SKY HARBOR YESTERDAY AFTERNOON. ALL MODELS SUGGEST THAT THIS
RIDGE PATTERN CONFIGURATION WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF
THE WORK WEEK OVER THE DESERT SOUTHWEST UNTIL A MORE ROBUST EASTERN
PACIFIC SHORTWAVE DAMPENS THE RIDGE AXIS OVER THE WEEKEND. EXPECT
LITTLE CHANGE IN OUR MAX TEMPERATURES THROUGH FRIDAY...WITH A
PERSISTENCE FORECAST IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S IN THE OFFING FOR THE
LOWER DESERTS...AND AFTERNOON HIGHS FLIRTING WITH OR BREAKING
RECORDS EACH DAY. SEE CLIMATE SECTION BELOW FOR FORECAST AND RECORD
DETAILS.

SATURDAY/SUNDAY...THE SOUTHERN END OF A DRY UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE
PASSES THROUGH NORTHERN ARIZONA. THIS WILL SUPPORT A DEGREE OR TWO
OF COOLING EACH AFTERNOON...THE SLIGHT DIP IN TEMPERATURES AIDED IN
PART BY SOME HIGH LEVEL CLOUDINESS.

MONDAY/TUESDAY AND BEYOND...THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL QUICKLY
REBOUND EARLY NEXT WEEK ALONG WITH THE WARMTH AND ABOVE-NORMAL
TEMPERATURES. BY MIDWEEK...PATTERN PREDICTABILITY DROPS OFF AND
ENSEMBLE SPREAD INCREASES...BUT THERE ARE INDICATIONS IN THE CURRENT
DETERMINISTIC MODEL RUNS THAT ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL
APPROACH THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. HOW FAR SOUTH IN LATITUDE THE TROUGH
WILL DROP AND INFLUENCE OUR WEATHER PATTERN AFFECT REMAINS TO BE
SEEN.

&&

.AVIATION...
SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA INCLUDING KPHX...KIWA...AND SDL...AND
SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA/SOUTHWEST ARIZONA INCLUDING KIPL AND KBLH...

HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT...AND A VERY DRY AIRMASS...TO KEEP SKIES CLEAR
AT ALL OF THE TAF SITES THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HRS...AND BEYOND.
WEAKENING SFC PRESSURE GRADIENTS TO KEEP WINDS FOR THE MOST PART ON
THE LIGHT SIDE...8 KTS OR LESS...AND ALLOW THEM TO FOLLOW TYPICAL
DIURNAL TRENDS...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF A A PERIOD OF SLIGHTLY
STRONGER EASTERLY BREEZES AT KPHX DURING THE LATE MORNING/EARLY
AFTERNOON PERIOD TODAY. WINDS WILL AGAIN FAVOR THE NORTH AT KBLH
TODAY WITH PERIODS OF LIGHT/VARIABLE OR CHANGING WIND DIRECTIONS.

ALTHOUGH LOW LEVEL EASTERLY WINDS IN THE PHOENIX AREA SHOULD NOT
WARRANT LLWS IN THE TAFS...WE MAY SEE A BRIEF PERIOD...THRU 15Z OR
SO...WHERE SHEAR MIGHT APPROACH LLWS THRESHOLDS ESPECIALLY WHEN
SURFACE WINDS DECREASE TO CALM SUCH AS AT KPHX.

AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDED TAFS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY... AN UNSEASONABLY STRONG HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE
WILL REMAIN IN PLACE OVER THE WESTERN STATES THIS WEEK AND INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK. THIS WILL LEAD TO A PERSISTENT PERIOD OF WELL ABOVE
NORMALS HIGH TEMPS...WITH READINGS PEAKING 10 TO 15 DEGREES ABOVE
SEASONAL NORMALS. MANY LOWER ELEVATION AND DESERT SITES WILL SEE A
STRETCH OF DAYS WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES WARMING PAST THE 80 DEGREE
MARK WITH WARMER DESERTS RISING TO RECORD LEVELS...IN THE UPPER 80S.
RELATIVE HUMIDITY WILL ALSO REMAIN ON THE DRIER AND BELOW NORMAL
SIDE DURING THE WEEK WITH MIN VALUES TYPICALLY IN THE LOW TO MIDDLE
TEENS.

LIGHT WINDS ARE EXPECTED FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...AND WILL
GENERALLY FOLLOW TYPICAL DRAINAGE/SLOPE DRIVEN HEADINGS WITH LIGHT
SPEEDS. INCREASED NORTHERLY BREEZES ARE EXPECTED OVER THE WESTERN
DESERTS...ESPECIALLY ALONG THE LOWER COLORADO RIVER VALLEY...SUNDAY
INTO MONDAY. SUNNY DAYS AND CLEAR NIGHTS WILL BE REPLACED BY
VARIABLE HIGH CLOUDINESS STARTING FRIDAY AND CONTINUING THROUGH THE
WEEKEND.

&&

.CLIMATE...

                   PHOENIX         |        YUMA
             FCST | RECORD (YEAR)  | FCST | RECORD (YEAR)

WED FEB 10     86 | 87 (1951)      |   85 | 93 (1951)
THU FEB 11     87 | 83 (1951)      |   86 | 86 (1971)
FRI FEB 12     87 | 84 (1988)      |   85 | 87 (1957)
SAT FEB 13     86 | 88 (1957)      |   85 | 93 (1957)
SUN FEB 14     85 | 85 (2014)      |   83 | 94 (1957)

&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT BASED ON STANDARD OPERATING
PROCEDURES.

&&

.PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AZ...NONE.
CA...NONE.

&&

$$

VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/PHOENIX

DISCUSSION...MEYERS
AVIATION...CB/PERCHA
FIRE WEATHER...NOLTE/CB
CLIMATE...MEYERS




000
FXUS65 KPSR 101200 AAA
AFDPSR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PHOENIX AZ
500 AM MST WED FEB 10 2016

.UPDATE...UPDATED AVIATION AND FIRE WEATHER DISCUSSIONS.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN THE DOMINANT WEATHER FEATURE OVER THE
SOUTHWESTERN UNITED STATES THIS WEEK. THIS WILL RESULT IN A
PROLONGED PERIOD OF SUNNY SKIES...MUCH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES...
RELATIVELY LIGHT WINDS...AND LOW HUMIDITY VALUES.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY...WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY CLEARLY SHOWS A
HIGH AMPLITUDE RIDGE IN PLACE ALONG THE WEST COAST OF THE UNITED
STATES...AND A DEEP BROAD TROUGH COVERING THE EASTERN CONUS THIS
MORNING. REGIONAL UPPER AIR PLOTS PLACE 583-585DM 500MB HEIGHTS OVER
ARIZONA...ALONG WITH ANOMALOUSLY WARM TEMPERATURE PROFILES IN BOTH
850MB AND 700MB LEVELS...ALL OF WHICH CONTRIBUTED TO THE RECORD WARM
TEMPERATURES AT OBSERVED AT SOME SITES ACROSS OUR CWA...INCLUDING
PHOENIX SKY HARBOR YESTERDAY AFTERNOON. ALL MODELS SUGGEST THAT THIS
RIDGE PATTERN CONFIGURATION WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF
THE WORK WEEK OVER THE DESERT SOUTHWEST UNTIL A MORE ROBUST EASTERN
PACIFIC SHORTWAVE DAMPENS THE RIDGE AXIS OVER THE WEEKEND. EXPECT
LITTLE CHANGE IN OUR MAX TEMPERATURES THROUGH FRIDAY...WITH A
PERSISTENCE FORECAST IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S IN THE OFFING FOR THE
LOWER DESERTS...AND AFTERNOON HIGHS FLIRTING WITH OR BREAKING
RECORDS EACH DAY. SEE CLIMATE SECTION BELOW FOR FORECAST AND RECORD
DETAILS.

SATURDAY/SUNDAY...THE SOUTHERN END OF A DRY UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE
PASSES THROUGH NORTHERN ARIZONA. THIS WILL SUPPORT A DEGREE OR TWO
OF COOLING EACH AFTERNOON...THE SLIGHT DIP IN TEMPERATURES AIDED IN
PART BY SOME HIGH LEVEL CLOUDINESS.

MONDAY/TUESDAY AND BEYOND...THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL QUICKLY
REBOUND EARLY NEXT WEEK ALONG WITH THE WARMTH AND ABOVE-NORMAL
TEMPERATURES. BY MIDWEEK...PATTERN PREDICTABILITY DROPS OFF AND
ENSEMBLE SPREAD INCREASES...BUT THERE ARE INDICATIONS IN THE CURRENT
DETERMINISTIC MODEL RUNS THAT ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL
APPROACH THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. HOW FAR SOUTH IN LATITUDE THE TROUGH
WILL DROP AND INFLUENCE OUR WEATHER PATTERN AFFECT REMAINS TO BE
SEEN.

&&

.AVIATION...
SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA INCLUDING KPHX...KIWA...AND SDL...AND
SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA/SOUTHWEST ARIZONA INCLUDING KIPL AND KBLH...

HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT...AND A VERY DRY AIRMASS...TO KEEP SKIES CLEAR
AT ALL OF THE TAF SITES THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HRS...AND BEYOND.
WEAKENING SFC PRESSURE GRADIENTS TO KEEP WINDS FOR THE MOST PART ON
THE LIGHT SIDE...8 KTS OR LESS...AND ALLOW THEM TO FOLLOW TYPICAL
DIURNAL TRENDS...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF A A PERIOD OF SLIGHTLY
STRONGER EASTERLY BREEZES AT KPHX DURING THE LATE MORNING/EARLY
AFTERNOON PERIOD TODAY. WINDS WILL AGAIN FAVOR THE NORTH AT KBLH
TODAY WITH PERIODS OF LIGHT/VARIABLE OR CHANGING WIND DIRECTIONS.

ALTHOUGH LOW LEVEL EASTERLY WINDS IN THE PHOENIX AREA SHOULD NOT
WARRANT LLWS IN THE TAFS...WE MAY SEE A BRIEF PERIOD...THRU 15Z OR
SO...WHERE SHEAR MIGHT APPROACH LLWS THRESHOLDS ESPECIALLY WHEN
SURFACE WINDS DECREASE TO CALM SUCH AS AT KPHX.

AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDED TAFS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY... AN UNSEASONABLY STRONG HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE
WILL REMAIN IN PLACE OVER THE WESTERN STATES THIS WEEK AND INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK. THIS WILL LEAD TO A PERSISTENT PERIOD OF WELL ABOVE
NORMALS HIGH TEMPS...WITH READINGS PEAKING 10 TO 15 DEGREES ABOVE
SEASONAL NORMALS. MANY LOWER ELEVATION AND DESERT SITES WILL SEE A
STRETCH OF DAYS WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES WARMING PAST THE 80 DEGREE
MARK WITH WARMER DESERTS RISING TO RECORD LEVELS...IN THE UPPER 80S.
RELATIVE HUMIDITY WILL ALSO REMAIN ON THE DRIER AND BELOW NORMAL
SIDE DURING THE WEEK WITH MIN VALUES TYPICALLY IN THE LOW TO MIDDLE
TEENS.

LIGHT WINDS ARE EXPECTED FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...AND WILL
GENERALLY FOLLOW TYPICAL DRAINAGE/SLOPE DRIVEN HEADINGS WITH LIGHT
SPEEDS. INCREASED NORTHERLY BREEZES ARE EXPECTED OVER THE WESTERN
DESERTS...ESPECIALLY ALONG THE LOWER COLORADO RIVER VALLEY...SUNDAY
INTO MONDAY. SUNNY DAYS AND CLEAR NIGHTS WILL BE REPLACED BY
VARIABLE HIGH CLOUDINESS STARTING FRIDAY AND CONTINUING THROUGH THE
WEEKEND.

&&

.CLIMATE...

                   PHOENIX         |        YUMA
             FCST | RECORD (YEAR)  | FCST | RECORD (YEAR)

WED FEB 10     86 | 87 (1951)      |   85 | 93 (1951)
THU FEB 11     87 | 83 (1951)      |   86 | 86 (1971)
FRI FEB 12     87 | 84 (1988)      |   85 | 87 (1957)
SAT FEB 13     86 | 88 (1957)      |   85 | 93 (1957)
SUN FEB 14     85 | 85 (2014)      |   83 | 94 (1957)

&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT BASED ON STANDARD OPERATING
PROCEDURES.

&&

.PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AZ...NONE.
CA...NONE.

&&

$$

VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/PHOENIX

DISCUSSION...MEYERS
AVIATION...CB/PERCHA
FIRE WEATHER...NOLTE/CB
CLIMATE...MEYERS



000
FXUS65 KPSR 101200 AAA
AFDPSR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PHOENIX AZ
500 AM MST WED FEB 10 2016

.UPDATE...UPDATED AVIATION AND FIRE WEATHER DISCUSSIONS.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN THE DOMINANT WEATHER FEATURE OVER THE
SOUTHWESTERN UNITED STATES THIS WEEK. THIS WILL RESULT IN A
PROLONGED PERIOD OF SUNNY SKIES...MUCH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES...
RELATIVELY LIGHT WINDS...AND LOW HUMIDITY VALUES.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY...WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY CLEARLY SHOWS A
HIGH AMPLITUDE RIDGE IN PLACE ALONG THE WEST COAST OF THE UNITED
STATES...AND A DEEP BROAD TROUGH COVERING THE EASTERN CONUS THIS
MORNING. REGIONAL UPPER AIR PLOTS PLACE 583-585DM 500MB HEIGHTS OVER
ARIZONA...ALONG WITH ANOMALOUSLY WARM TEMPERATURE PROFILES IN BOTH
850MB AND 700MB LEVELS...ALL OF WHICH CONTRIBUTED TO THE RECORD WARM
TEMPERATURES AT OBSERVED AT SOME SITES ACROSS OUR CWA...INCLUDING
PHOENIX SKY HARBOR YESTERDAY AFTERNOON. ALL MODELS SUGGEST THAT THIS
RIDGE PATTERN CONFIGURATION WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF
THE WORK WEEK OVER THE DESERT SOUTHWEST UNTIL A MORE ROBUST EASTERN
PACIFIC SHORTWAVE DAMPENS THE RIDGE AXIS OVER THE WEEKEND. EXPECT
LITTLE CHANGE IN OUR MAX TEMPERATURES THROUGH FRIDAY...WITH A
PERSISTENCE FORECAST IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S IN THE OFFING FOR THE
LOWER DESERTS...AND AFTERNOON HIGHS FLIRTING WITH OR BREAKING
RECORDS EACH DAY. SEE CLIMATE SECTION BELOW FOR FORECAST AND RECORD
DETAILS.

SATURDAY/SUNDAY...THE SOUTHERN END OF A DRY UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE
PASSES THROUGH NORTHERN ARIZONA. THIS WILL SUPPORT A DEGREE OR TWO
OF COOLING EACH AFTERNOON...THE SLIGHT DIP IN TEMPERATURES AIDED IN
PART BY SOME HIGH LEVEL CLOUDINESS.

MONDAY/TUESDAY AND BEYOND...THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL QUICKLY
REBOUND EARLY NEXT WEEK ALONG WITH THE WARMTH AND ABOVE-NORMAL
TEMPERATURES. BY MIDWEEK...PATTERN PREDICTABILITY DROPS OFF AND
ENSEMBLE SPREAD INCREASES...BUT THERE ARE INDICATIONS IN THE CURRENT
DETERMINISTIC MODEL RUNS THAT ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL
APPROACH THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. HOW FAR SOUTH IN LATITUDE THE TROUGH
WILL DROP AND INFLUENCE OUR WEATHER PATTERN AFFECT REMAINS TO BE
SEEN.

&&

.AVIATION...
SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA INCLUDING KPHX...KIWA...AND SDL...AND
SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA/SOUTHWEST ARIZONA INCLUDING KIPL AND KBLH...

HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT...AND A VERY DRY AIRMASS...TO KEEP SKIES CLEAR
AT ALL OF THE TAF SITES THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HRS...AND BEYOND.
WEAKENING SFC PRESSURE GRADIENTS TO KEEP WINDS FOR THE MOST PART ON
THE LIGHT SIDE...8 KTS OR LESS...AND ALLOW THEM TO FOLLOW TYPICAL
DIURNAL TRENDS...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF A A PERIOD OF SLIGHTLY
STRONGER EASTERLY BREEZES AT KPHX DURING THE LATE MORNING/EARLY
AFTERNOON PERIOD TODAY. WINDS WILL AGAIN FAVOR THE NORTH AT KBLH
TODAY WITH PERIODS OF LIGHT/VARIABLE OR CHANGING WIND DIRECTIONS.

ALTHOUGH LOW LEVEL EASTERLY WINDS IN THE PHOENIX AREA SHOULD NOT
WARRANT LLWS IN THE TAFS...WE MAY SEE A BRIEF PERIOD...THRU 15Z OR
SO...WHERE SHEAR MIGHT APPROACH LLWS THRESHOLDS ESPECIALLY WHEN
SURFACE WINDS DECREASE TO CALM SUCH AS AT KPHX.

AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDED TAFS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY... AN UNSEASONABLY STRONG HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE
WILL REMAIN IN PLACE OVER THE WESTERN STATES THIS WEEK AND INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK. THIS WILL LEAD TO A PERSISTENT PERIOD OF WELL ABOVE
NORMALS HIGH TEMPS...WITH READINGS PEAKING 10 TO 15 DEGREES ABOVE
SEASONAL NORMALS. MANY LOWER ELEVATION AND DESERT SITES WILL SEE A
STRETCH OF DAYS WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES WARMING PAST THE 80 DEGREE
MARK WITH WARMER DESERTS RISING TO RECORD LEVELS...IN THE UPPER 80S.
RELATIVE HUMIDITY WILL ALSO REMAIN ON THE DRIER AND BELOW NORMAL
SIDE DURING THE WEEK WITH MIN VALUES TYPICALLY IN THE LOW TO MIDDLE
TEENS.

LIGHT WINDS ARE EXPECTED FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...AND WILL
GENERALLY FOLLOW TYPICAL DRAINAGE/SLOPE DRIVEN HEADINGS WITH LIGHT
SPEEDS. INCREASED NORTHERLY BREEZES ARE EXPECTED OVER THE WESTERN
DESERTS...ESPECIALLY ALONG THE LOWER COLORADO RIVER VALLEY...SUNDAY
INTO MONDAY. SUNNY DAYS AND CLEAR NIGHTS WILL BE REPLACED BY
VARIABLE HIGH CLOUDINESS STARTING FRIDAY AND CONTINUING THROUGH THE
WEEKEND.

&&

.CLIMATE...

                   PHOENIX         |        YUMA
             FCST | RECORD (YEAR)  | FCST | RECORD (YEAR)

WED FEB 10     86 | 87 (1951)      |   85 | 93 (1951)
THU FEB 11     87 | 83 (1951)      |   86 | 86 (1971)
FRI FEB 12     87 | 84 (1988)      |   85 | 87 (1957)
SAT FEB 13     86 | 88 (1957)      |   85 | 93 (1957)
SUN FEB 14     85 | 85 (2014)      |   83 | 94 (1957)

&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT BASED ON STANDARD OPERATING
PROCEDURES.

&&

.PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AZ...NONE.
CA...NONE.

&&

$$

VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/PHOENIX

DISCUSSION...MEYERS
AVIATION...CB/PERCHA
FIRE WEATHER...NOLTE/CB
CLIMATE...MEYERS




000
FXUS65 KTWC 101030
AFDTWC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ
330 AM MST WED FEB 10 2016

.SYNOPSIS...STRONG HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT OVER THE WESTERN STATES WILL
PROVIDE DRY CONDITIONS WITH WELL ABOVE AVERAGE DAYTIME TEMPERATURES
THROUGH NEXT TUESDAY. EXPECT RECORD OR NEAR RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES
FOR SOME LOCATIONS AS WELL...ESPECIALLY THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...STRONG HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WAS CENTERED OVER SOUTHERN
CALIFORNIA EARLY THIS MORNING AND A RIDGE AXIS EXTENDED NWD INTO
BRITISH COLUMBIA CANADA. THE 10/00Z GFS/ECMWF/CMC AND ENSEMBLES
REMAINED VERY SIMILAR TO SOLUTIONS FROM 24 HOURS AGO REGARDING THE
PROJECTED UPPER LEVEL PATTERN OVER THE ERN PACIFIC/WRN CONUS INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK.

THE UPPER RIDGE WILL REMAIN QUASI-STATIONARY INTO THURSDAY...THEN
MOVE EWD ACROSS SE ARIZONA FRI. EXPECT MAINLY CLEAR SKIES THRU FRI
ALTHOUGH SOME CIRRIFORM CLOUDS MAY MOVE ACROSS THE AREA...MOST
LIKELY LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THE UPPER RIDGE WILL
FLATTEN SAT AS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES EWD ACROSS THE PACIFIC NW
AND INTO THE NRN ROCKIES/GREAT BASIN REGION. THIS SHORTWAVE TROUGH
WILL THEN MOVE RAPIDLY SEWD ACROSS THE FOUR CORNERS REGION AND INTO
THE SRN CONUS PLAINS SUN. THE MAIN IMPACT FROM THIS SYSTEM FOR SE
ARIZONA WILL BE SOME INCREASE IN CIRRIFORM CLOUDS FOR MOSTLY CLEAR
SKIES TO PERHAPS PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES...AS WELL AS SOME VERY MINOR
COOLING.

A VERY DRY NWLY FLOW ALOFT REGIME WILL OCCUR MON AS STRONG HIGH
PRESSURE ALOFT BUILDS AGAIN NEAR THE SRN CALIFORNIA COAST. A VERY
DRY REGIME WILL BE MAINTAINED TUE AS THE UPPER RIDGE IS PROGGED TO
MOVE EWD INTO THE SWRN CONUS. ALTHOUGH BEYOND THE SCOPE OF THIS
FORECAST PACKAGE...HAVE NOTED THAT THE 10/00Z OPERATIONAL GFS/ECMWF
MAINTAINED PRECIP-FREE CONDITIONS ACROSS SE ARIZONA NEXT WED AS THE
NEXT UPPER TROUGH MOVES INTO THE PACIFIC NW AND EXTENDS SWD INTO
NRN/CENTRAL CALIFORNIA.

THEREAFTER...THERE WERE CONSIDERABLE DIFFERENCES BETWEEN THE
DETERMINISTIC GFS/ECMWF BY NEXT FRI (FEB 19). THE GFS DEPICTED
FAIRLY LARGE LIQUID PRECIP AMOUNTS ACROSS SRN ARIZONA IN RESPONSE TO
A DEEPENING UPPER LOW OVER SRN CALIFORNIA. HOWEVER...THE ECMWF
DEPICTED DRY CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE UNDER GENERALLY WLY FLOW ALOFT.
THUS...A SYSTEM SUFFICIENT TO GENERATE PRECIP MAY APPROACH THE AREA
SOMETIME LATE NEXT WEEK...BUT STILL WAY TOO EARLY TO GET EXCITED
ABOUT PRECIP RETURNING TO THIS FORECAST AREA WITH ANY DEGREE OF
CERTAINTY.

HIGH TEMPS TODAY WILL GENERALLY BE WITHIN A DEGREE-OR-TWO OF TEMPS
ACHIEVED TUE...AND WILL CONTINUE TO AVERAGE ABOUT 10-15 DEGS ABOVE
NORMAL. EXPECT A DEGREE-OR-SO OF DAILY WARMING THUR-FRI WITH RECORD
OR NEAR-RECORD HIGH TEMPS FOR SOME LOCALES. THERE WILL BE VIRTUALLY
NO CHANGE IN DAYTIME TEMPS SAT...THEN JUST A FEW DEGS OF COOLING
WILL OCCUR SUN IN RESPONSE TO THE PASSING SHORTWAVE TROUGH. DAYTIME
TEMPS WILL REMAIN WELL ABOVE SEASONAL NORMALS MON-TUE.

&&

.AVIATION...VALID THRU 11/12Z.
SKC THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. EAST TO SOUTHEAST SURFACE WINDS 5
TO 15 KTS WITH GUSTS 15 TO 20 KTS IN THE LATE MORNING AND EARLY
AFTERNOON. AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR TAF AMENDMENTS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...DRY CONDITIONS WITH MUCH ABOVE AVERAGE AFTERNOON
TEMPERATURES CONTINUING INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. AS A RESULT RELATIVE
HUMIDITY VALUES WILL REMAIN BELOW NORMAL AS WELL WITH MIN RHS IN THE
7 TO 15 PERCENT RANGE IN THE VALLEYS WITH LESS THAN IDEAL NIGHTTIME
RECOVERIES. LOCALLY GUSTY EAST WINDS WILL CONTINUE TODAY...WITH THE
PEAK WIND SPEEDS ACROSS THE VALLEYS OCCURRING FROM THE MID MORNING
TO EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS QUICKLY DIMINISHING MID AFTERNOON ONWARD.
LIGHTER WINDS ARE EXPECTED THURSDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...YOUTUBE...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/TUCSON

DISCUSSION...FRANCIS
AVIATION/FIRE WEATHER...CERNIGLIA




000
FXUS65 KPSR 100955
AFDPSR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PHOENIX AZ
255 AM MST WED FEB 10 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN THE DOMINANT WEATHER FEATURE OVER THE
SOUTHWESTERN UNITED STATES THIS WEEK. THIS WILL RESULT IN A
PROLONGED PERIOD OF SUNNY SKIES...MUCH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES...
RELATIVELY LIGHT WINDS...AND LOW HUMIDITY VALUES.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY...WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY CLEARLY SHOWS A
HIGH AMPLITUDE RIDGE IN PLACE ALONG THE WEST COAST OF THE UNITED
STATES...AND A DEEP BROAD TROUGH COVERING THE EASTERN CONUS THIS
MORNING. REGIONAL UPPER AIR PLOTS PLACE 583-585DM 500MB HEIGHTS OVER
ARIZONA...ALONG WITH ANOMALOUSLY WARM TEMPERATURE PROFILES IN BOTH
850MB AND 700MB LEVELS...ALL OF WHICH CONTRIBUTED TO THE RECORD WARM
TEMPERATURES AT OBSERVED AT SOME SITES ACROSS OUR CWA...INCLUDING
PHOENIX SKY HARBOR YESTERDAY AFTERNOON. ALL MODELS SUGGEST THAT THIS
RIDGE PATTERN CONFIGURATION WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF
THE WORK WEEK OVER THE DESERT SOUTHWEST UNTIL A MORE ROBUST EASTERN
PACIFIC SHORTWAVE DAMPENS THE RIDGE AXIS OVER THE WEEKEND. EXPECT
LITTLE CHANGE IN OUR MAX TEMPERATURES THROUGH FRIDAY...WITH A
PERSISTENCE FORECAST IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S IN THE OFFING FOR THE
LOWER DESERTS...AND AFTERNOON HIGHS FLIRTING WITH OR BREAKING
RECORDS EACH DAY. SEE CLIMATE SECTION BELOW FOR FORECAST AND RECORD
DETAILS.

SATURDAY/SUNDAY...THE SOUTHERN END OF A DRY UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE
PASSES THROUGH NORTHERN ARIZONA. THIS WILL SUPPORT A DEGREE OR TWO
OF COOLING EACH AFTERNOON...THE SLIGHT DIP IN TEMPERATURES AIDED IN
PART BY SOME HIGH LEVEL CLOUDINESS.

MONDAY/TUESDAY AND BEYOND...THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL QUICKLY
REBOUND EARLY NEXT WEEK ALONG WITH THE WARMTH AND ABOVE-NORMAL
TEMPERATURES. BY MIDWEEK...PATTERN PREDICTABILITY DROPS OFF AND
ENSEMBLE SPREAD INCREASES...BUT THERE ARE INDICATIONS IN THE CURRENT
DETERMINISTIC MODEL RUNS THAT ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL
APPROACH THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. HOW FAR SOUTH IN LATITUDE THE TROUGH
WILL DROP AND INFLUENCE OUR WEATHER PATTERN AFFECT REMAINS TO BE
SEEN.

&&

.AVIATION...
SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA INCLUDING KPHX...KIWA...AND SDL...AND
SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA/SOUTHWEST ARIZONA INCLUDING KIPL AND KBLH...

HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT...AND A VERY DRY AIRMASS...TO KEEP SKIES CLEAR
AT ALL OF THE TAF SITES THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HRS...AND BEYOND.
WEAKENING SFC PRESSURE GRADIENTS TO KEEP WINDS FOR THE MOST PART ON
THE LIGHT SIDE...8 KTS OR LESS...AND ALLOW THEM TO FOLLOW TYPICAL
DIURNAL TRENDS...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF A A PERIOD OF SLIGHTLY
STRONGER EASTERLY BREEZES AT KPHX DURING THE LATE MORNING/EARLY
AFTERNOON PERIOD ON WEDNESDAY.

AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDED TAFS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY...
AN UNSEASONABLY STRONG HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE OVER
THE WESTERN STATES THIS WEEK AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. THIS WILL
LEAD TO A PERSISTENT PERIOD OF WELL ABOVE NORMALS HIGH TEMPS...WITH
READINGS PEAKING 10 TO 15 DEGREES ABOVE SEASONAL NORMALS. MANY LOWER
ELEVATION AND DESERT SITES WILL SEE A STRETCH OF DAYS WITH HIGH
TEMPERATURES WARMING PAST THE 80 DEGREE MARK. RELATIVE HUMIDITY WILL
ALSO REMAIN ON THE DRIER AND BELOW NORMAL SIDE DURING THE WEEK WITH
MIN VALUES TYPICALLY IN THE LOW TO MIDDLE TEENS.

LIGHT WINDS ARE EXPECTED THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...AND WILL
GENERALLY FOLLOW TYPICAL DRAINAGE/SLOPE DRIVEN HEADINGS WITH LIGHT
SPEEDS. INCREASED NORTHERLY BREEZES ARE EXPECTED OVER THE WESTERN
DESERTS...ESPECIALLY ALONG THE LOWER COLORADO RIVER VALLEY...SUNDAY
INTO MONDAY. SUNNY DAYS AND CLEAR NIGHTS WILL BE REPLACED BY
VARIABLE HIGH CLOUDINESS STARTING FRIDAY AND CONTINUING THROUGH THE
WEEKEND.

&&

.CLIMATE...

                   PHOENIX         |        YUMA
             FCST | RECORD (YEAR)  | FCST | RECORD (YEAR)

WED FEB 10     86 | 87 (1951)      |   85 | 93 (1951)
THU FEB 11     87 | 83 (1951)      |   86 | 86 (1971)
FRI FEB 12     87 | 84 (1988)      |   85 | 87 (1957)
SAT FEB 13     86 | 88 (1957)      |   85 | 93 (1957)
SUN FEB 14     85 | 85 (2014)      |   83 | 94 (1957)

&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT BASED ON STANDARD OPERATING
PROCEDURES.

&&

.PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AZ...NONE.
CA...NONE.

&&

$$

VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/PHOENIX

DISCUSSION...MEYERS
AVIATION...PERCHA
FIRE WEATHER...NOLTE/CB
CLIMATE...MEYERS




000
FXUS65 KFGZ 100913
AFDFGZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ
213 AM MST WED FEB 10 2016

.SYNOPSIS...STRONG HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE WESTERN
STATES THROUGH THIS WEEKEND. LOOK FOR CLEAR SKIES AND WARM WEATHER
ACROSS NORTHERN ARIZONA. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE 10 TO 15
DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH AT LEAST SATURDAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE WESTERN UNITED STATES WILL
DOMINATE THE WEATHER ACROSS ARIZONA OVER THE COMING WEEK. A DRY
AND WARM AIR MASS WILL DELIVER MAINLY CLEAR SKIES AND WELL ABOVE
NORMAL DAYTIME TEMPERATURES INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. A FAST
MOVING SHORTWAVE COULD BRUSH ARIZONA ON SUNDAY/MONDAY POTENTIALLY
KICKING UP GUSTY NORTHEAST WINDS FROM THE MOGOLLON RIM SOUTHWARD
BUT THAT IS ABOUT IT. FAIR WEATHER LOVERS CAN REJOICE! THE REST
WILL HAVE TO ANXIOUSLY AWAIT.

&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 12Z PACKAGE...LIGHT WINDS AND VFR CONDITIONS
ARE EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT
UPDATED FOR TAF AMENDMENTS.

&&

.FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC...MCCOLLUM
AVIATION...PETERSON


FOR NORTHERN ARIZONA WEATHER INFORMATION VISIT
WEATHER.GOV/FLAGSTAFF




000
FXUS65 KTWC 100415
AFDTWC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ
900 PM MST TUE FEB 9 2016

.SYNOPSIS...STRONG HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT OVER THE WESTERN STATES WILL
PROVIDE DRY CONDITIONS WITH WELL ABOVE AVERAGE DAYTIME TEMPERATURES
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...CLEAR SKIES WITH DRY CONDITIONS FROM THE SURFACE ALL
THE WAY MARS OVER SOUTHEAST ARIZONA. PRECIPITABLE WATER NEAR OR
UNDER 1/4 OF AN INCH AND SURFACE DEWPOINTS IN THE TEENS TO LOWER
20S. AN UNSEASONABLY STRONG RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO
BRING DAYTIME HIGHS AROUND 15 DEGREES ABOVE AVERAGE THROUGH THE
WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. PLEASE SEE THE PREVIOUS DISCUSSION
BELOW FOR ADDITIONAL DETAILS.

&&

.AVIATION...VALID THRU 11/06Z.
SKC THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. EAST TO SOUTHEAST SURFACE WINDS 5
TO 15 KTS WITH GUSTS 15 TO 20 KTS IN THE LATE MORNING AND
EARLY AFTERNOON. AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR TAF AMENDMENTS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...DRY CONDITIONS WITH ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES
CONTINUING THROUGH THE WEEKEND. IN RESPONSE RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES
WILL REMAIN NOTICEABLY LOW...WITH LESS THAN IDEAL NIGHTTIME
RECOVERIES. LOCALLY GUSTY EAST WINDS WILL CONTINUE WEDNESDAY WITH
THE PEAK WIND SPEEDS ACROSS THE VALLEYS OCCURRING FROM THE MID
MORNING TO EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS. GUSTY WINDS ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN
WILL GENERALLY PEAK LATE NIGHT AND EARLY MORNING HOURS. LIGHTER
WINDS ARE EXPECTED THURSDAY ONWARD.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...THE 09/12Z MODEL SOLUTIONS HAVEN`T CHANGED MUCH
FROM THE PREVIOUS RUN...WHICH DEPICTED A RATHER WEAK DETACHED LOW
OVER THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE BAJA PENINSULA WHICH MODELS TEND TO
AGREE WILL BE ABSORBED BY THE PREVAILING PATTERN. MODELS ARE VERY
CONSISTENT SHOWING AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN CONUS WHICH
WILL CONTINUE TO DOMINATE THE AREA FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.
DAYTIME TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO REACH WELL INTO THE 80S UNTIL
TOWARD THE END OF THE WEEK WHEN THE RIDGE FINALLY BEGINS TO FLATTEN
OUT. OUR NEXT POTENTIAL SHOT AT PRECIPITATION COULD BE THE MIDDLE OF
NEXT WEEK...WHERE THE MOST RECENT GFS OUTPUT SHOWS A LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM MOVING INTO THE AREA FROM THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA. ITS STILL
FAR TOO EARLY TO SAY THAT WITH MUCH CONFIDENCE...ESPECIALLY AS THE
09/12Z ECMWF CURRENTLY DOES NOT AGREE WITH THAT SCENARIO.

&&

.TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

MEYER/HICKFORD/HUMPHREYS

VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...YOUTUBE...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/TUCSON




000
FXUS65 KPSR 100357 AAA
AFDPSR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PHOENIX AZ
900 PM MST TUE FEB 9 2016

.UPDATE... UPDATED AVIATION SECTION.

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN THE DOMINANT WEATHER FEATURE OVER THE
SOUTHWESTERN UNITED STATES THIS WEEK. THIS WILL RESULT IN A
PROLONGED PERIOD OF SUNNY SKIES...MUCH ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES...RELATIVELY LIGHT WINDS...AND LOW HUMIDITY VALUES.

&&

.DISCUSSION... ANOTHER VERY MILD EVENING FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR
ACROSS THE REGION...AS VERY STRONG RIDGING ALOFT ALLOWED HIGHS
ACROSS THE LOWER DESERTS TO RISE WELL UP INTO THE 80S. PHOENIX SKY
HARBOR REACHED 86...WHICH BROKE THE PREVIOUS RECORD BY 2 DEGREES.
TEMPERATURES AT THIS HOUR ARE ACTUALLY RUNNING 1-3 DEGREES WARMER
THAN WHAT WE SAW AT THIS TIME YESTERDAY. GIVEN THESE WARMER
TEMPERATURES AND THE LOWS WE SAW LAST NIGHT...DECIDED TO RAISE OUR
OVERNIGHT LOWS TONIGHT A BIT. OUTSIDE OF THESE WARMER
LOWS...INHERITED FORECASTS/TRENDS ARE HOLDING UP WELL...AND NO OTHER
UPDATES ARE PLANNED.

&&

.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION... QUASI-BLOCKED HIGH AMPLITUDE FLOW REMAINS
ENTRENCHED ACROSS THE WRN HEMISPHERE WITH RIDGING EXTENDING ALONG
THE WEST COAST OF NORTH AMERICA WHILE DEEP TROUGHING ENVELOPES ERN
CONUS. UNUSUALLY HIGH HEIGHTS ALOFT (H5 HEIGHTS 2-3 NORMALIZED
STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE AVERAGE) AND 12Z KTWC SOUNDING SAMPLED H8
AND H7 TEMPERATURES ABOVE THE 90TH PERCENTILE (APPROACHING OR
SLIGHTLY EXCEEDING DAILY RECORDS) HAVE RESULTED IN NEAR TO ABOVE
RECORD HIGHS THIS AFTERNOON.
THIS GENERAL PATTERN CONFIGURATION WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE WEEK UNTIL MORE ROBUST PACIFIC SHORTWAVE ENERGY
DAMPENS THE RIDGE AXIS...AND NEGATIVE ERN CONUS HEIGHT ANOMALIES
TRANSLATE INTO THE NORTH PACIFIC.

THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST AREA...LITTLE CHANGE IN THE THERMODYNAMIC
PROFILE WILL OCCUR OVER THE NEXT 84 HOURS WITH A NEAR PERSISTENCE
FORECAST MOST APPLICABLE. WITH 1000-850MB THICKNESSES REGULARLY
TOUCHING 140DM AND OTHER HEIGHT AND THERMAL PROFILES CONTINUING TO
FALL IN THE 2-3 NORMALIZED STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE NORMAL
RANGE...AFTERNOON HIGHS FLIRTING WITH RECORD TERRITORY WILL BE
TYPICAL. (PLEASE REFERENCE THE CLIMATE SECTION BELOW FOR FORECAST
AND RECORD DETAILS). MODEL SPREAD ON ALL ACCOUNTS IS QUITE SMALL
YIELDING EXCELLENT FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND POINTING TOWARDS FRIDAY
AS THE WARMEST DAY OF THE WEEK.

THE SWIFT PASSAGE OF THE SOUTHERN END OF A DRY PAC NORTHWEST
SHORTWAVE WILL SUPPORT A DEGREE OR TWO OF COOLING SATURDAY AND
SUNDAY WITH THE COMBINATION OF SLIGHTLY LOWER UL HEIGHTS AND SOME
HIGH LEVEL CLOUDINESS. RIDGING WILL QUICKLY REBOUND EARLY NEXT WEEK
AND THE WARMTH AND ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURES RETURN. HOWEVER ONE
POTENTIAL AREA OF INTEREST...A SHEARED PORTION OF THIS PAC NW TROUGH
MAY FORM A CUTOFF LOW OFF THE SAN DIEGO COAST SUNDAY...DEEPENING
SOUTH TO OFFSHORE SOUTHERN BAJA MONDAY NEAR THE NORTHERN EDGES OF
WARM EL NINO WATERS. WHILE THERE IS SOME ENSEMBLE SPREAD IN THE
ORIENTATION OF THESE FEATURES...THIS AREA OFFSHORE COULD PRESENT
ALMOST LIKE THE SOUTHERN BRANCH OF A REX BLOCK WITH LOWER
HEIGHTS/GENERAL WEAKNESS PERSISTING.

PATTERN PREDICTABILITY DROPS OFF AND ENSEMBLE SPREAD INCREASES
TOWARDS THE LATTER END OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD AS SOME TROPICAL
PACIFIC CONVECTION AND JET STREAKING TAKE ADVANTAGE OF THOSE
PERSISTENT LOW HEIGHT ANOMALIES OVER THE EAST PACIFIC/BAJA PENINSULA.
AS PREVIOUS SHIFTS NOTED...THIS ATMOSPHERIC SET-UP HAS OCCURRED IN
PREVIOUS EL NINO YEARS /CUTOFF LOWS IN THIS EL NINO REGION HAVE SPUN
UP INCREDIBLY FAST DUE TO THE PHASING OF A SUBTROPICAL JETSTREAM/
RESULTING IN EVENTUAL PRECIP ACTIVITY DOWNSTREAM OVER THE SOUTHWEST
DESERTS. DETERMINISTIC MODEL RUNS ARE BROADLY AGREEING ON THE IDEA
OF STRONGER AND DEEPER PACIFIC TROUGH SWEEPING INTO SOUTHERN WEST
COAST TOWARDS THE LATTER PART OF NEXT WEEK AND MODTREND GUIDANCE
FROM THE GFS POINTS TO SOME PERSISTENT WEAKENING OF 500MB HEIGHTS
OVER THE CENTRAL PACIFIC UPSTREAM BY THU-FRI NEXT WEEK. WE ARE JUST
OUTSIDE THE WINDOW OF GETTING IVT/AR GUIDANCE BUT BROAD MODEL
AGREEMENT ON THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN NEVER HURTS TO SEE THIS FAR OUT.

&&

.AVIATION...
SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA INCLUDING KPHX...KIWA...AND SDL...AND
SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA/SOUTHWEST ARIZONA INCLUDING KIPL AND KBLH...

HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT...AND A VERY DRY AIRMASS...TO KEEP SKIES CLEAR
AT ALL OF THE TAF SITES THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HRS...AND BEYOND.
WEAKENING SFC PRESSURE GRADIENTS TO KEEP WINDS FOR THE MOST PART ON
THE LIGHT SIDE...8 KTS OR LESS...AND ALLOW THEM TO FOLLOW TYPICAL
DIURNAL TRENDS...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF A A PERIOD OF SLIGHTLY
STRONGER EASTERLY BREEZES AT KPHX DURING THE LATE MORNING/EARLY
AFTERNOON PERIOD ON WEDNESDAY.

AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDED TAFS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY...
AN UNSEASONABLY STRONG HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE OVER
THE WESTERN STATES THIS WEEK AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. THIS WILL
LEAD TO A PERSISTENT PERIOD OF WELL ABOVE NORMALS HIGH
TEMPERATURES...WITH READINGS PEAKING 10 TO 15 DEGREES ABOVE SEASONAL
NORMALS. MANY LOWER ELEVATION AND DESERT SITES WILL SEE A STRETCH OF
DAYS WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES WARMING PAST THE 80 DEGREE MARK. RH`S
WILL ALSO REMAIN ON THE DRIER AND BELOW NORMAL SIDE DURING THE WEEK
WITH MIN VALUES TYPICALLY IN THE LOW TO MIDDLE TEENS.

LIGHT WINDS ARE EXPECTED THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...AND WILL
GENERALLY FOLLOW TYPICAL DRAINAGE/SLOPE DRIVEN HEADINGS WITH LIGHT
SPEEDS. INCREASED NORTHERLY BREEZES ARE EXPECTED OVER THE WESTERN
DESERTS...ESPECIALLY ALONG THE LOWER COLORADO RIVER VALLEY...SUNDAY
INTO MONDAY. SUNNY DAYS AND CLEAR NIGHTS WILL BE REPLACED BY
VARIABLE HIGH CLOUDINESS STARTING FRIDAY AND CONTINUING THROUGH THE
WEEKEND.

&&

.CLIMATE...


AFTERNOON SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES MOSTLY CLEAR TO SCATTERED
SKIES OVER THE REGION. EXPECT MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES WITH A FEW
SCATTERED...MOSTLY HIGH CLOUDS IN ALL AREAS. IN THE PHOENIX
AREA...WINDS WILL BE LIGHT OR LIGHT AND VARIABLE AND FOLLOW NORMAL
DIURNAL SWINGS. HOWEVER...AT KBLH OCCASIONAL NORTHERLY AFTERNOON
WIND GUSTS UP TO 25 KNOTS ARE EXPECTED. OTHERWISE...SOUTHEAST
CALIFORNIA LOCALES CAN EXPECT NORTHERLY WINDS THIS AFTERNOON AND
LIGHTER WESTERLY WINDS TONIGHT. VISIBILITIES WILL REMAIN GOOD
THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD.
                   PHOENIX         |        YUMA
             FCST | RECORD (YEAR)  | FCST | RECORD (YEAR)

TUE FEB 9      84 | 84 (1987)      |   84 | 90 (2015)
WED FEB 10     84 | 87 (1951)      |   84 | 93 (1951)
THU FEB 11     85 | 83 (1951)      |   85 | 86 (1971)
FRI FEB 12     86 | 84 (1988)      |   85 | 87 (1957)
SAT FEB 13     86 | 88 (1957)      |   85 | 93 (1957)
SUN FEB 14     83 | 85 (2014)      |   83 | 94 (1957)

&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT BASED ON STANDARD OPERATING
PROCEDURES.

&&

.PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AZ...NONE.
CA...NONE.

&&

$$

VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/PHOENIX

DISCUSSION...PERCHA/MO/NOLTE
AVIATION...PERCHA
FIRE WEATHER...NOLTE/CB
CLIMATE...NOLTE




000
FXUS65 KPSR 100336
AFDPSR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PHOENIX AZ
840 PM MST TUE FEB 9 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN THE DOMINANT WEATHER FEATURE OVER THE
SOUTHWESTERN UNITED STATES THIS WEEK. THIS WILL RESULT IN A
PROLONGED PERIOD OF SUNNY SKIES...MUCH ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES...RELATIVELY LIGHT WINDS...AND LOW HUMIDITY VALUES.

&&

.DISCUSSION... ANOTHER VERY MILD EVENING FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR
ACROSS THE REGION...AS VERY STRONG RIDGING ALOFT ALLOWED HIGHS
ACROSS THE LOWER DESERTS TO RISE WELL UP INTO THE 80S. PHOENIX SKY
HARBOR REACHED 86...WHICH BROKE THE PREVIOUS RECORD BY 2 DEGREES.
TEMPERATURES AT THIS HOUR ARE ACTUALLY RUNNING 1-3 DEGREES WARMER
THAN WHAT WE SAW AT THIS TIME YESTERDAY. GIVEN THESE WARMER
TEMPERATURES AND THE LOWS WE SAW LAST NIGHT...DECIDED TO RAISE OUR
OVERNIGHT LOWS TONIGHT A BIT. OUTSIDE OF THESE WARMER
LOWS...INHERITED FORECASTS/TRENDS ARE HOLDING UP WELL...AND NO OTHER
UPDATES ARE PLANNED.

&&

.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION... QUASI-BLOCKED HIGH AMPLITUDE FLOW REMAINS
ENTRENCHED ACROSS THE WRN HEMISPHERE WITH RIDGING EXTENDING ALONG
THE WEST COAST OF NORTH AMERICA WHILE DEEP TROUGHING ENVELOPES ERN
CONUS. UNUSUALLY HIGH HEIGHTS ALOFT (H5 HEIGHTS 2-3 NORMALIZED
STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE AVERAGE) AND 12Z KTWC SOUNDING SAMPLED H8
AND H7 TEMPERATURES ABOVE THE 90TH PERCENTILE (APPROACHING OR
SLIGHTLY EXCEEDING DAILY RECORDS) HAVE RESULTED IN NEAR TO ABOVE
RECORD HIGHS THIS AFTERNOON.
THIS GENERAL PATTERN CONFIGURATION WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE WEEK UNTIL MORE ROBUST PACIFIC SHORTWAVE ENERGY
DAMPENS THE RIDGE AXIS...AND NEGATIVE ERN CONUS HEIGHT ANOMALIES
TRANSLATE INTO THE NORTH PACIFIC.

THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST AREA...LITTLE CHANGE IN THE THERMODYNAMIC
PROFILE WILL OCCUR OVER THE NEXT 84 HOURS WITH A NEAR PERSISTENCE
FORECAST MOST APPLICABLE. WITH 1000-850MB THICKNESSES REGULARLY
TOUCHING 140DM AND OTHER HEIGHT AND THERMAL PROFILES CONTINUING TO
FALL IN THE 2-3 NORMALIZED STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE NORMAL
RANGE...AFTERNOON HIGHS FLIRTING WITH RECORD TERRITORY WILL BE
TYPICAL. (PLEASE REFERENCE THE CLIMATE SECTION BELOW FOR FORECAST
AND RECORD DETAILS). MODEL SPREAD ON ALL ACCOUNTS IS QUITE SMALL
YIELDING EXCELLENT FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND POINTING TOWARDS FRIDAY
AS THE WARMEST DAY OF THE WEEK.

THE SWIFT PASSAGE OF THE SOUTHERN END OF A DRY PAC NORTHWEST
SHORTWAVE WILL SUPPORT A DEGREE OR TWO OF COOLING SATURDAY AND
SUNDAY WITH THE COMBINATION OF SLIGHTLY LOWER UL HEIGHTS AND SOME
HIGH LEVEL CLOUDINESS. RIDGING WILL QUICKLY REBOUND EARLY NEXT WEEK
AND THE WARMTH AND ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURES RETURN. HOWEVER ONE
POTENTIAL AREA OF INTEREST...A SHEARED PORTION OF THIS PAC NW TROUGH
MAY FORM A CUTOFF LOW OFF THE SAN DIEGO COAST SUNDAY...DEEPENING
SOUTH TO OFFSHORE SOUTHERN BAJA MONDAY NEAR THE NORTHERN EDGES OF
WARM EL NINO WATERS. WHILE THERE IS SOME ENSEMBLE SPREAD IN THE
ORIENTATION OF THESE FEATURES...THIS AREA OFFSHORE COULD PRESENT
ALMOST LIKE THE SOUTHERN BRANCH OF A REX BLOCK WITH LOWER
HEIGHTS/GENERAL WEAKNESS PERSISTING.

PATTERN PREDICTABILITY DROPS OFF AND ENSEMBLE SPREAD INCREASES
TOWARDS THE LATTER END OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD AS SOME TROPICAL
PACIFIC CONVECTION AND JET STREAKING TAKE ADVANTAGE OF THOSE
PERSISTENT LOW HEIGHT ANOMALIES OVER THE EAST PACIFIC/BAJA PENINSULA.
AS PREVIOUS SHIFTS NOTED...THIS ATMOSPHERIC SET-UP HAS OCCURRED IN
PREVIOUS EL NINO YEARS /CUTOFF LOWS IN THIS EL NINO REGION HAVE SPUN
UP INCREDIBLY FAST DUE TO THE PHASING OF A SUBTROPICAL JETSTREAM/
RESULTING IN EVENTUAL PRECIP ACTIVITY DOWNSTREAM OVER THE SOUTHWEST
DESERTS. DETERMINISTIC MODEL RUNS ARE BROADLY AGREEING ON THE IDEA
OF STRONGER AND DEEPER PACIFIC TROUGH SWEEPING INTO SOUTHERN WEST
COAST TOWARDS THE LATTER PART OF NEXT WEEK AND MODTREND GUIDANCE
FROM THE GFS POINTS TO SOME PERSISTENT WEAKENING OF 500MB HEIGHTS
OVER THE CENTRAL PACIFIC UPSTREAM BY THU-FRI NEXT WEEK. WE ARE JUST
OUTSIDE THE WINDOW OF GETTING IVT/AR GUIDANCE BUT BROAD MODEL
AGREEMENT ON THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN NEVER HURTS TO SEE THIS FAR OUT.

&&

.AVIATION...
SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA INCLUDING KPHX...KIWA...AND SDL...AND
SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA/SOUTHWEST ARIZONA INCLUDING KIPL AND KBLH...

AFTERNOON SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES MOSTLY CLEAR TO SCATTERED
SKIES OVER THE REGION. EXPECT MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES WITH A FEW
SCATTERED...MOSTLY HIGH CLOUDS IN ALL AREAS. IN THE PHOENIX
AREA...WINDS WILL BE LIGHT OR LIGHT AND VARIABLE AND FOLLOW NORMAL
DIURNAL SWINGS. HOWEVER...AT KBLH OCCASIONAL NORTHERLY AFTERNOON
WIND GUSTS UP TO 25 KNOTS ARE EXPECTED. OTHERWISE...SOUTHEAST
CALIFORNIA LOCALES CAN EXPECT NORTHERLY WINDS THIS AFTERNOON AND
LIGHTER WESTERLY WINDS TONIGHT. VISIBILITIES WILL REMAIN GOOD
THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD.

AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDED TAFS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY...
AN UNSEASONABLY STRONG HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE OVER
THE WESTERN STATES THIS WEEK AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. THIS WILL
LEAD TO A PERSISTENT PERIOD OF WELL ABOVE NORMALS HIGH
TEMPERATURES...WITH READINGS PEAKING 10 TO 15 DEGREES ABOVE SEASONAL
NORMALS. MANY LOWER ELEVATION AND DESERT SITES WILL SEE A STRETCH OF
DAYS WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES WARMING PAST THE 80 DEGREE MARK. RH`S
WILL ALSO REMAIN ON THE DRIER AND BELOW NORMAL SIDE DURING THE WEEK
WITH MIN VALUES TYPICALLY IN THE LOW TO MIDDLE TEENS.

LIGHT WINDS ARE EXPECTED THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...AND WILL
GENERALLY FOLLOW TYPICAL DRAINAGE/SLOPE DRIVEN HEADINGS WITH LIGHT
SPEEDS. INCREASED NORTHERLY BREEZES ARE EXPECTED OVER THE WESTERN
DESERTS...ESPECIALLY ALONG THE LOWER COLORADO RIVER VALLEY...SUNDAY
INTO MONDAY. SUNNY DAYS AND CLEAR NIGHTS WILL BE REPLACED BY
VARIABLE HIGH CLOUDINESS STARTING FRIDAY AND CONTINUING THROUGH THE
WEEKEND.

&&

.CLIMATE...
                   PHOENIX         |        YUMA
             FCST | RECORD (YEAR)  | FCST | RECORD (YEAR)

TUE FEB 9      84 | 84 (1987)      |   84 | 90 (2015)
WED FEB 10     84 | 87 (1951)      |   84 | 93 (1951)
THU FEB 11     85 | 83 (1951)      |   85 | 86 (1971)
FRI FEB 12     86 | 84 (1988)      |   85 | 87 (1957)
SAT FEB 13     86 | 88 (1957)      |   85 | 93 (1957)
SUN FEB 14     83 | 85 (2014)      |   83 | 94 (1957)

&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT BASED ON STANDARD OPERATING
PROCEDURES.

&&

.PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AZ...NONE.
CA...NONE.

&&

$$

VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/PHOENIX

DISCUSSION...PERCHA/MO/NOLTE
AVIATION...JS
FIRE WEATHER...NOLTE/CB
CLIMATE...NOLTE




000
FXUS65 KFGZ 100312
AFDFGZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ
812 PM MST TUE FEB 9 2016

.SYNOPSIS...STRONG HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE WESTERN
STATES THROUGH THIS WEEKEND. LOOK FOR CLEAR SKIES AND WARM
WEATHER ACROSS NORTHERN ARIZONA. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE 10 TO
15 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH AT LEAST SATURDAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
NO EVENING UPDATES TO FORECAST ARE ANTICIPATED.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION /255 PM MST/... AN UPPER LEVEL PATTERN
REMINISCENT OF RECENT PAST WINTERS WILL BE IN PLACE THIS WEEK AS
A STRONG RIDGE REMAINS PARKED OVER THE WESTERN US WITH A
DEEP...COLD TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN US. IN FACT...MID-LEVEL
HEIGHTS ACROSS MUCH OF THE WEST WILL EXCEED THE 90TH PERCENTILE
FOR FEBRUARY THIS WEEK...EXCEEDING THE 99TH PERCENTILE AT TIMES
OVER ARIZONA. THIS PATTERN WILL BRING MOSTLY CLEAR
SKIES...RELATIVELY LIGHT WINDS...AND MUCH ABOVE NORMAL DAYTIME
TEMPERATURES TO NORTHERN ARIZONA. A FEW HIGH TEMPERATURE RECORDS
MAY BE BROKEN.

A WEAK SHORT WAVE TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO PASS THROUGH ARIZONA FROM
LATE SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY...BRINGING A SUBTLE DROP IN TEMPERATURES
AND AN INCREASE IN WIND SPEEDS. THE WESTERN US RIDGE IS FORECAST
TO RETURN EARLY NEXT WEEK ALONG WITH CONTINUED MILD TEMPERATURES.
ENSEMBLE FORECAST SYSTEMS INDICATE A BREAKDOWN OF THE WESTERN
RIDGE AROUND THE MIDDLE TO LATTER PART OF NEXT WEEK WITH A
PRECIPITATION EVENT POSSIBLE AROUND THAT TIME FRAME. TOO EARLY TO
TALK DETAILS AS FAR AS TIMING...TEMPERATURES AND AMOUNTS THOUGH
THE MOISTURE LOOKS TO BE ORIGINATING FROM A SUBTROPICAL SOURCE AND
WE COULD EVEN SEE RAIN AT THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS. STAY TUNED.

&&

.AVIATION...
FOR THE 06Z PACKAGE...LIGHT WINDS AND VFR CONDITIONS UNDER
GENERALLY CLEAR SKIES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE 24 HR TAF PERIOD.
AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR TAF AMENDMENTS.

&&

.FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC...KD/TAYLOR
AVIATION...KD

FOR NORTHERN ARIZONA WEATHER INFORMATION VISIT
WEATHER.GOV/FLAGSTAFF




000
FXUS65 KFGZ 092155
AFDFGZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ
255 PM MST TUE FEB 9 2016

.SYNOPSIS...STRONG HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE WESTERN
STATES THROUGH THIS WEEKEND. LOOK FOR CLEAR SKIES AND WARM WEATHER
ACROSS NORTHERN ARIZONA. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE 10 TO 15
DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH AT LEAST SATURDAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
AN UPPER LEVEL PATTERN REMINISCENT OF RECENT PAST WINTERS WILL BE
IN PLACE THIS WEEK AS A STRONG RIDGE REMAINS PARKED OVER THE
WESTERN US WITH A DEEP...COLD TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN US. IN
FACT...MID-LEVEL HEIGHTS ACROSS MUCH OF THE WEST WILL EXCEED THE
90TH PERCENTILE FOR FEBRUARY THIS WEEK...EXCEEDING THE 99TH
PERCENTILE AT TIMES OVER ARIZONA. THIS PATTERN WILL BRING MOSTLY
CLEAR SKIES...RELATIVELY LIGHT WINDS...AND MUCH ABOVE NORMAL
DAYTIME TEMPERATURES TO NORTHERN ARIZONA. A FEW HIGH TEMPERATURE
RECORDS MAY BE BROKEN.

A WEAK SHORT WAVE TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO PASS THROUGH ARIZONA FROM
LATE SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY...BRINGING A SUBTLE DROP IN TEMPERATURES
AND AN INCREASE IN WIND SPEEDS. THE WESTERN US RIDGE IS FORECAST
TO RETURN EARLY NEXT WEEK ALONG WITH CONTINUED MILD TEMPERATURES.
ENSEMBLE FORECAST SYSTEMS INDICATE A BREAKDOWN OF THE WESTERN
RIDGE AROUND THE MIDDLE TO LATTER PART OF NEXT WEEK WITH A
PRECIPITATION EVENT POSSIBLE AROUND THAT TIME FRAME. TOO EARLY TO
TALK DETAILS AS FAR AS TIMING...TEMPERATURES AND AMOUNTS THOUGH
THE MOISTURE LOOKS TO BE ORIGINATING FROM A SUBTROPICAL SOURCE AND
WE COULD EVEN SEE RAIN AT THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS. STAY TUNED.

&&

.AVIATION...
FOR THE 00Z PACKAGE...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH 00Z
THURSDAY. AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR TAF AMENDMENTS.

&&

.FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC...TAYLOR
AVIATION...TAYLOR


FOR NORTHERN ARIZONA WEATHER INFORMATION VISIT
WEATHER.GOV/FLAGSTAFF




000
FXUS65 KPSR 092148
AFDPSR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PHOENIX AZ
245 PM MST TUE FEB 9 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN THE DOMINANT WEATHER FEATURE OVER THE
SOUTHWESTERN UNITED STATES THIS WEEK. THIS WILL RESULT IN A
PROLONGED PERIOD OF SUNNY SKIES...MUCH ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES...RELATIVELY LIGHT WINDS...AND LOW HUMIDITY VALUES.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
QUASI-BLOCKED HIGH AMPLITUDE FLOW REMAINS ENTRENCHED ACROSS THE WRN
HEMISPHERE WITH RIDGING EXTENDING ALONG THE WEST COAST OF NORTH
AMERICA WHILE DEEP TROUGHING ENVELOPES ERN CONUS. UNUSUALLY HIGH
HEIGHTS ALOFT (H5 HEIGHTS 2-3 NORMALIZED STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE
AVERAGE) AND 12Z KTWC SOUNDING SAMPLED H8 AND H7 TEMPERATURES ABOVE
THE 90TH PERCENTILE (APPROACHING OR SLIGHTLY EXCEEDING DAILY
RECORDS) HAVE RESULTED IN NEAR TO ABOVE RECORD HIGHS THIS AFTERNOON.
THIS GENERAL PATTERN CONFIGURATION WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE WEEK UNTIL MORE ROBUST PACIFIC SHORTWAVE ENERGY
DAMPENS THE RIDGE AXIS...AND NEGATIVE ERN CONUS HEIGHT ANOMALIES
TRANSLATE INTO THE NORTH PACIFIC.

THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST AREA...LITTLE CHANGE IN THE THERMODYNAMIC
PROFILE WILL OCCUR OVER THE NEXT 84 HOURS WITH A NEAR PERSISTENCE
FORECAST MOST APPLICABLE. WITH 1000-850MB THICKNESSES REGULARLY
TOUCHING 140DM AND OTHER HEIGHT AND THERMAL PROFILES CONTINUING TO
FALL IN THE 2-3 NORMALIZED STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE NORMAL
RANGE...AFTERNOON HIGHS FLIRTING WITH RECORD TERRITORY WILL BE
TYPICAL. (PLEASE REFERENCE THE CLIMATE SECTION BELOW FOR FORECAST
AND RECORD DETAILS). MODEL SPREAD ON ALL ACCOUNTS IS QUITE SMALL
YIELDING EXCELLENT FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND POINTING TOWARDS FRIDAY
AS THE WARMEST DAY OF THE WEEK.

THE SWIFT PASSAGE OF THE SOUTHERN END OF A DRY PAC NORTHWEST
SHORTWAVE WILL SUPPORT A DEGREE OR TWO OF COOLING SATURDAY AND
SUNDAY WITH THE COMBINATION OF SLIGHTLY LOWER UL HEIGHTS AND SOME
HIGH LEVEL CLOUDINESS. RIDGING WILL QUICKLY REBOUND EARLY NEXT WEEK
AND THE WARMTH AND ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURES RETURN. HOWEVER ONE
POTENTIAL AREA OF INTEREST...A SHEARED PORTION OF THIS PAC NW TROUGH
MAY FORM A CUTOFF LOW OFF THE SAN DIEGO COAST SUNDAY...DEEPENING
SOUTH TO OFFSHORE SOUTHERN BAJA MONDAY NEAR THE NORTHERN EDGES OF
WARM EL NINO WATERS. WHILE THERE IS SOME ENSEMBLE SPREAD IN THE
ORIENTATION OF THESE FEATURES...THIS AREA OFFSHORE COULD PRESENT
ALMOST LIKE THE SOUTHERN BRANCH OF A REX BLOCK WITH LOWER
HEIGHTS/GENERAL WEAKNESS PERSISTING.

PATTERN PREDICTABILITY DROPS OFF AND ENSEMBLE SPREAD INCREASES
TOWARDS THE LATTER END OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD AS SOME TROPICAL
PACIFIC CONVECTION AND JET STREAKING TAKE ADVANTAGE OF THOSE
PERSISTENT LOW HEIGHT ANOMALIES OVER THE EAST PACIFIC/BAJA PENINSULA.
AS PREVIOUS SHIFTS NOTED...THIS ATMOSPHERIC SET-UP HAS OCCURRED IN
PREVIOUS EL NINO YEARS /CUTOFF LOWS IN THIS EL NINO REGION HAVE SPUN
UP INCREDIBLY FAST DUE TO THE PHASING OF A SUBTROPICAL JETSTREAM/
RESULTING IN EVENTUAL PRECIP ACTIVITY DOWNSTREAM OVER THE SOUTHWEST
DESERTS. DETERMINISTIC MODEL RUNS ARE BROADLY AGREEING ON THE IDEA
OF STRONGER AND DEEPER PACIFIC TROUGH SWEEPING INTO SOUTHERN WEST
COAST TOWARDS THE LATTER PART OF NEXT WEEK AND MODTREND GUIDANCE
FROM THE GFS POINTS TO SOME PERSISTENT WEAKENING OF 500MB HEIGHTS
OVER THE CENTRAL PACIFIC UPSTREAM BY THU-FRI NEXT WEEK. WE ARE JUST
OUTSIDE THE WINDOW OF GETTING IVT/AR GUIDANCE BUT BROAD MODEL
AGREEMENT ON THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN NEVER HURTS TO SEE THIS FAR OUT.

&&

.AVIATION...
SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA INCLUDING KPHX...KIWA...AND SDL...AND
SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA/SOUTHWEST ARIZONA INCLUDING KIPL AND KBLH...

AFTERNOON SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES MOSTLY CLEAR TO SCATTERED
SKIES OVER THE REGION. EXPECT MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES WITH A FEW
SCATTERED...MOSTLY HIGH CLOUDS IN ALL AREAS. IN THE PHOENIX
AREA...WINDS WILL BE LIGHT OR LIGHT AND VARIABLE AND FOLLOW NORMAL
DIURNAL SWINGS. HOWEVER...AT KBLH OCCASIONAL NORTHERLY AFTERNOON
WIND GUSTS UP TO 25 KNOTS ARE EXPECTED. OTHERWISE...SOUTHEAST
CALIFORNIA LOCALES CAN EXPECT NORTHERLY WINDS THIS AFTERNOON AND
LIGHTER WESTERLY WINDS TONIGHT. VISIBILITIES WILL REMAIN GOOD
THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD.

AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDED TAFS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY...
AN UNSEASONABLY STRONG HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE OVER
THE WESTERN STATES THIS WEEK AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. THIS WILL
LEAD TO A PERSISTENT PERIOD OF WELL ABOVE NORMALS HIGH
TEMPERATURES...WITH READINGS PEAKING 10 TO 15 DEGREES ABOVE SEASONAL
NORMALS. MANY LOWER ELEVATION AND DESERT SITES WILL SEE A STRETCH OF
DAYS WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES WARMING PAST THE 80 DEGREE MARK. RH`S
WILL ALSO REMAIN ON THE DRIER AND BELOW NORMAL SIDE DURING THE WEEK
WITH MIN VALUES TYPICALLY IN THE LOW TO MIDDLE TEENS.

LIGHT WINDS ARE EXPECTED THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...AND WILL
GENERALLY FOLLOW TYPICAL DRAINAGE/SLOPE DRIVEN HEADINGS WITH LIGHT
SPEEDS. INCREASED NORTHERLY BREEZES ARE EXPECTED OVER THE WESTERN
DESERTS...ESPECIALLY ALONG THE LOWER COLORADO RIVER VALLEY...SUNDAY
INTO MONDAY. SUNNY DAYS AND CLEAR NIGHTS WILL BE REPLACED BY
VARIABLE HIGH CLOUDINESS STARTING FRIDAY AND CONTINUING THROUGH THE
WEEKEND.

&&

.CLIMATE...
                   PHOENIX         |        YUMA
             FCST | RECORD (YEAR)  | FCST | RECORD (YEAR)

TUE FEB 9      84 | 84 (1987)      |   84 | 90 (2015)
WED FEB 10     84 | 87 (1951)      |   84 | 93 (1951)
THU FEB 11     85 | 83 (1951)      |   85 | 86 (1971)
FRI FEB 12     86 | 84 (1988)      |   85 | 87 (1957)
SAT FEB 13     86 | 88 (1957)      |   85 | 93 (1957)
SUN FEB 14     83 | 85 (2014)      |   83 | 94 (1957)

&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT BASED ON STANDARD OPERATING
PROCEDURES.

&&

.PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AZ...NONE.
CA...NONE.

&&

$$

VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/PHOENIX

DISCUSSION...MO/NOLTE
AVIATION...JS
FIRE WEATHER...NOLTE/CB
CLIMATE...NOLTE




000
FXUS65 KPSR 092148
AFDPSR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PHOENIX AZ
245 PM MST TUE FEB 9 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN THE DOMINANT WEATHER FEATURE OVER THE
SOUTHWESTERN UNITED STATES THIS WEEK. THIS WILL RESULT IN A
PROLONGED PERIOD OF SUNNY SKIES...MUCH ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES...RELATIVELY LIGHT WINDS...AND LOW HUMIDITY VALUES.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
QUASI-BLOCKED HIGH AMPLITUDE FLOW REMAINS ENTRENCHED ACROSS THE WRN
HEMISPHERE WITH RIDGING EXTENDING ALONG THE WEST COAST OF NORTH
AMERICA WHILE DEEP TROUGHING ENVELOPES ERN CONUS. UNUSUALLY HIGH
HEIGHTS ALOFT (H5 HEIGHTS 2-3 NORMALIZED STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE
AVERAGE) AND 12Z KTWC SOUNDING SAMPLED H8 AND H7 TEMPERATURES ABOVE
THE 90TH PERCENTILE (APPROACHING OR SLIGHTLY EXCEEDING DAILY
RECORDS) HAVE RESULTED IN NEAR TO ABOVE RECORD HIGHS THIS AFTERNOON.
THIS GENERAL PATTERN CONFIGURATION WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE WEEK UNTIL MORE ROBUST PACIFIC SHORTWAVE ENERGY
DAMPENS THE RIDGE AXIS...AND NEGATIVE ERN CONUS HEIGHT ANOMALIES
TRANSLATE INTO THE NORTH PACIFIC.

THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST AREA...LITTLE CHANGE IN THE THERMODYNAMIC
PROFILE WILL OCCUR OVER THE NEXT 84 HOURS WITH A NEAR PERSISTENCE
FORECAST MOST APPLICABLE. WITH 1000-850MB THICKNESSES REGULARLY
TOUCHING 140DM AND OTHER HEIGHT AND THERMAL PROFILES CONTINUING TO
FALL IN THE 2-3 NORMALIZED STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE NORMAL
RANGE...AFTERNOON HIGHS FLIRTING WITH RECORD TERRITORY WILL BE
TYPICAL. (PLEASE REFERENCE THE CLIMATE SECTION BELOW FOR FORECAST
AND RECORD DETAILS). MODEL SPREAD ON ALL ACCOUNTS IS QUITE SMALL
YIELDING EXCELLENT FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND POINTING TOWARDS FRIDAY
AS THE WARMEST DAY OF THE WEEK.

THE SWIFT PASSAGE OF THE SOUTHERN END OF A DRY PAC NORTHWEST
SHORTWAVE WILL SUPPORT A DEGREE OR TWO OF COOLING SATURDAY AND
SUNDAY WITH THE COMBINATION OF SLIGHTLY LOWER UL HEIGHTS AND SOME
HIGH LEVEL CLOUDINESS. RIDGING WILL QUICKLY REBOUND EARLY NEXT WEEK
AND THE WARMTH AND ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURES RETURN. HOWEVER ONE
POTENTIAL AREA OF INTEREST...A SHEARED PORTION OF THIS PAC NW TROUGH
MAY FORM A CUTOFF LOW OFF THE SAN DIEGO COAST SUNDAY...DEEPENING
SOUTH TO OFFSHORE SOUTHERN BAJA MONDAY NEAR THE NORTHERN EDGES OF
WARM EL NINO WATERS. WHILE THERE IS SOME ENSEMBLE SPREAD IN THE
ORIENTATION OF THESE FEATURES...THIS AREA OFFSHORE COULD PRESENT
ALMOST LIKE THE SOUTHERN BRANCH OF A REX BLOCK WITH LOWER
HEIGHTS/GENERAL WEAKNESS PERSISTING.

PATTERN PREDICTABILITY DROPS OFF AND ENSEMBLE SPREAD INCREASES
TOWARDS THE LATTER END OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD AS SOME TROPICAL
PACIFIC CONVECTION AND JET STREAKING TAKE ADVANTAGE OF THOSE
PERSISTENT LOW HEIGHT ANOMALIES OVER THE EAST PACIFIC/BAJA PENINSULA.
AS PREVIOUS SHIFTS NOTED...THIS ATMOSPHERIC SET-UP HAS OCCURRED IN
PREVIOUS EL NINO YEARS /CUTOFF LOWS IN THIS EL NINO REGION HAVE SPUN
UP INCREDIBLY FAST DUE TO THE PHASING OF A SUBTROPICAL JETSTREAM/
RESULTING IN EVENTUAL PRECIP ACTIVITY DOWNSTREAM OVER THE SOUTHWEST
DESERTS. DETERMINISTIC MODEL RUNS ARE BROADLY AGREEING ON THE IDEA
OF STRONGER AND DEEPER PACIFIC TROUGH SWEEPING INTO SOUTHERN WEST
COAST TOWARDS THE LATTER PART OF NEXT WEEK AND MODTREND GUIDANCE
FROM THE GFS POINTS TO SOME PERSISTENT WEAKENING OF 500MB HEIGHTS
OVER THE CENTRAL PACIFIC UPSTREAM BY THU-FRI NEXT WEEK. WE ARE JUST
OUTSIDE THE WINDOW OF GETTING IVT/AR GUIDANCE BUT BROAD MODEL
AGREEMENT ON THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN NEVER HURTS TO SEE THIS FAR OUT.

&&

.AVIATION...
SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA INCLUDING KPHX...KIWA...AND SDL...AND
SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA/SOUTHWEST ARIZONA INCLUDING KIPL AND KBLH...

AFTERNOON SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES MOSTLY CLEAR TO SCATTERED
SKIES OVER THE REGION. EXPECT MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES WITH A FEW
SCATTERED...MOSTLY HIGH CLOUDS IN ALL AREAS. IN THE PHOENIX
AREA...WINDS WILL BE LIGHT OR LIGHT AND VARIABLE AND FOLLOW NORMAL
DIURNAL SWINGS. HOWEVER...AT KBLH OCCASIONAL NORTHERLY AFTERNOON
WIND GUSTS UP TO 25 KNOTS ARE EXPECTED. OTHERWISE...SOUTHEAST
CALIFORNIA LOCALES CAN EXPECT NORTHERLY WINDS THIS AFTERNOON AND
LIGHTER WESTERLY WINDS TONIGHT. VISIBILITIES WILL REMAIN GOOD
THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD.

AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDED TAFS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY...
AN UNSEASONABLY STRONG HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE OVER
THE WESTERN STATES THIS WEEK AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. THIS WILL
LEAD TO A PERSISTENT PERIOD OF WELL ABOVE NORMALS HIGH
TEMPERATURES...WITH READINGS PEAKING 10 TO 15 DEGREES ABOVE SEASONAL
NORMALS. MANY LOWER ELEVATION AND DESERT SITES WILL SEE A STRETCH OF
DAYS WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES WARMING PAST THE 80 DEGREE MARK. RH`S
WILL ALSO REMAIN ON THE DRIER AND BELOW NORMAL SIDE DURING THE WEEK
WITH MIN VALUES TYPICALLY IN THE LOW TO MIDDLE TEENS.

LIGHT WINDS ARE EXPECTED THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...AND WILL
GENERALLY FOLLOW TYPICAL DRAINAGE/SLOPE DRIVEN HEADINGS WITH LIGHT
SPEEDS. INCREASED NORTHERLY BREEZES ARE EXPECTED OVER THE WESTERN
DESERTS...ESPECIALLY ALONG THE LOWER COLORADO RIVER VALLEY...SUNDAY
INTO MONDAY. SUNNY DAYS AND CLEAR NIGHTS WILL BE REPLACED BY
VARIABLE HIGH CLOUDINESS STARTING FRIDAY AND CONTINUING THROUGH THE
WEEKEND.

&&

.CLIMATE...
                   PHOENIX         |        YUMA
             FCST | RECORD (YEAR)  | FCST | RECORD (YEAR)

TUE FEB 9      84 | 84 (1987)      |   84 | 90 (2015)
WED FEB 10     84 | 87 (1951)      |   84 | 93 (1951)
THU FEB 11     85 | 83 (1951)      |   85 | 86 (1971)
FRI FEB 12     86 | 84 (1988)      |   85 | 87 (1957)
SAT FEB 13     86 | 88 (1957)      |   85 | 93 (1957)
SUN FEB 14     83 | 85 (2014)      |   83 | 94 (1957)

&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT BASED ON STANDARD OPERATING
PROCEDURES.

&&

.PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AZ...NONE.
CA...NONE.

&&

$$

VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/PHOENIX

DISCUSSION...MO/NOLTE
AVIATION...JS
FIRE WEATHER...NOLTE/CB
CLIMATE...NOLTE



000
FXUS65 KPSR 092148
AFDPSR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PHOENIX AZ
245 PM MST TUE FEB 9 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN THE DOMINANT WEATHER FEATURE OVER THE
SOUTHWESTERN UNITED STATES THIS WEEK. THIS WILL RESULT IN A
PROLONGED PERIOD OF SUNNY SKIES...MUCH ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES...RELATIVELY LIGHT WINDS...AND LOW HUMIDITY VALUES.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
QUASI-BLOCKED HIGH AMPLITUDE FLOW REMAINS ENTRENCHED ACROSS THE WRN
HEMISPHERE WITH RIDGING EXTENDING ALONG THE WEST COAST OF NORTH
AMERICA WHILE DEEP TROUGHING ENVELOPES ERN CONUS. UNUSUALLY HIGH
HEIGHTS ALOFT (H5 HEIGHTS 2-3 NORMALIZED STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE
AVERAGE) AND 12Z KTWC SOUNDING SAMPLED H8 AND H7 TEMPERATURES ABOVE
THE 90TH PERCENTILE (APPROACHING OR SLIGHTLY EXCEEDING DAILY
RECORDS) HAVE RESULTED IN NEAR TO ABOVE RECORD HIGHS THIS AFTERNOON.
THIS GENERAL PATTERN CONFIGURATION WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE WEEK UNTIL MORE ROBUST PACIFIC SHORTWAVE ENERGY
DAMPENS THE RIDGE AXIS...AND NEGATIVE ERN CONUS HEIGHT ANOMALIES
TRANSLATE INTO THE NORTH PACIFIC.

THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST AREA...LITTLE CHANGE IN THE THERMODYNAMIC
PROFILE WILL OCCUR OVER THE NEXT 84 HOURS WITH A NEAR PERSISTENCE
FORECAST MOST APPLICABLE. WITH 1000-850MB THICKNESSES REGULARLY
TOUCHING 140DM AND OTHER HEIGHT AND THERMAL PROFILES CONTINUING TO
FALL IN THE 2-3 NORMALIZED STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE NORMAL
RANGE...AFTERNOON HIGHS FLIRTING WITH RECORD TERRITORY WILL BE
TYPICAL. (PLEASE REFERENCE THE CLIMATE SECTION BELOW FOR FORECAST
AND RECORD DETAILS). MODEL SPREAD ON ALL ACCOUNTS IS QUITE SMALL
YIELDING EXCELLENT FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND POINTING TOWARDS FRIDAY
AS THE WARMEST DAY OF THE WEEK.

THE SWIFT PASSAGE OF THE SOUTHERN END OF A DRY PAC NORTHWEST
SHORTWAVE WILL SUPPORT A DEGREE OR TWO OF COOLING SATURDAY AND
SUNDAY WITH THE COMBINATION OF SLIGHTLY LOWER UL HEIGHTS AND SOME
HIGH LEVEL CLOUDINESS. RIDGING WILL QUICKLY REBOUND EARLY NEXT WEEK
AND THE WARMTH AND ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURES RETURN. HOWEVER ONE
POTENTIAL AREA OF INTEREST...A SHEARED PORTION OF THIS PAC NW TROUGH
MAY FORM A CUTOFF LOW OFF THE SAN DIEGO COAST SUNDAY...DEEPENING
SOUTH TO OFFSHORE SOUTHERN BAJA MONDAY NEAR THE NORTHERN EDGES OF
WARM EL NINO WATERS. WHILE THERE IS SOME ENSEMBLE SPREAD IN THE
ORIENTATION OF THESE FEATURES...THIS AREA OFFSHORE COULD PRESENT
ALMOST LIKE THE SOUTHERN BRANCH OF A REX BLOCK WITH LOWER
HEIGHTS/GENERAL WEAKNESS PERSISTING.

PATTERN PREDICTABILITY DROPS OFF AND ENSEMBLE SPREAD INCREASES
TOWARDS THE LATTER END OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD AS SOME TROPICAL
PACIFIC CONVECTION AND JET STREAKING TAKE ADVANTAGE OF THOSE
PERSISTENT LOW HEIGHT ANOMALIES OVER THE EAST PACIFIC/BAJA PENINSULA.
AS PREVIOUS SHIFTS NOTED...THIS ATMOSPHERIC SET-UP HAS OCCURRED IN
PREVIOUS EL NINO YEARS /CUTOFF LOWS IN THIS EL NINO REGION HAVE SPUN
UP INCREDIBLY FAST DUE TO THE PHASING OF A SUBTROPICAL JETSTREAM/
RESULTING IN EVENTUAL PRECIP ACTIVITY DOWNSTREAM OVER THE SOUTHWEST
DESERTS. DETERMINISTIC MODEL RUNS ARE BROADLY AGREEING ON THE IDEA
OF STRONGER AND DEEPER PACIFIC TROUGH SWEEPING INTO SOUTHERN WEST
COAST TOWARDS THE LATTER PART OF NEXT WEEK AND MODTREND GUIDANCE
FROM THE GFS POINTS TO SOME PERSISTENT WEAKENING OF 500MB HEIGHTS
OVER THE CENTRAL PACIFIC UPSTREAM BY THU-FRI NEXT WEEK. WE ARE JUST
OUTSIDE THE WINDOW OF GETTING IVT/AR GUIDANCE BUT BROAD MODEL
AGREEMENT ON THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN NEVER HURTS TO SEE THIS FAR OUT.

&&

.AVIATION...
SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA INCLUDING KPHX...KIWA...AND SDL...AND
SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA/SOUTHWEST ARIZONA INCLUDING KIPL AND KBLH...

AFTERNOON SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES MOSTLY CLEAR TO SCATTERED
SKIES OVER THE REGION. EXPECT MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES WITH A FEW
SCATTERED...MOSTLY HIGH CLOUDS IN ALL AREAS. IN THE PHOENIX
AREA...WINDS WILL BE LIGHT OR LIGHT AND VARIABLE AND FOLLOW NORMAL
DIURNAL SWINGS. HOWEVER...AT KBLH OCCASIONAL NORTHERLY AFTERNOON
WIND GUSTS UP TO 25 KNOTS ARE EXPECTED. OTHERWISE...SOUTHEAST
CALIFORNIA LOCALES CAN EXPECT NORTHERLY WINDS THIS AFTERNOON AND
LIGHTER WESTERLY WINDS TONIGHT. VISIBILITIES WILL REMAIN GOOD
THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD.

AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDED TAFS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY...
AN UNSEASONABLY STRONG HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE OVER
THE WESTERN STATES THIS WEEK AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. THIS WILL
LEAD TO A PERSISTENT PERIOD OF WELL ABOVE NORMALS HIGH
TEMPERATURES...WITH READINGS PEAKING 10 TO 15 DEGREES ABOVE SEASONAL
NORMALS. MANY LOWER ELEVATION AND DESERT SITES WILL SEE A STRETCH OF
DAYS WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES WARMING PAST THE 80 DEGREE MARK. RH`S
WILL ALSO REMAIN ON THE DRIER AND BELOW NORMAL SIDE DURING THE WEEK
WITH MIN VALUES TYPICALLY IN THE LOW TO MIDDLE TEENS.

LIGHT WINDS ARE EXPECTED THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...AND WILL
GENERALLY FOLLOW TYPICAL DRAINAGE/SLOPE DRIVEN HEADINGS WITH LIGHT
SPEEDS. INCREASED NORTHERLY BREEZES ARE EXPECTED OVER THE WESTERN
DESERTS...ESPECIALLY ALONG THE LOWER COLORADO RIVER VALLEY...SUNDAY
INTO MONDAY. SUNNY DAYS AND CLEAR NIGHTS WILL BE REPLACED BY
VARIABLE HIGH CLOUDINESS STARTING FRIDAY AND CONTINUING THROUGH THE
WEEKEND.

&&

.CLIMATE...
                   PHOENIX         |        YUMA
             FCST | RECORD (YEAR)  | FCST | RECORD (YEAR)

TUE FEB 9      84 | 84 (1987)      |   84 | 90 (2015)
WED FEB 10     84 | 87 (1951)      |   84 | 93 (1951)
THU FEB 11     85 | 83 (1951)      |   85 | 86 (1971)
FRI FEB 12     86 | 84 (1988)      |   85 | 87 (1957)
SAT FEB 13     86 | 88 (1957)      |   85 | 93 (1957)
SUN FEB 14     83 | 85 (2014)      |   83 | 94 (1957)

&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT BASED ON STANDARD OPERATING
PROCEDURES.

&&

.PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AZ...NONE.
CA...NONE.

&&

$$

VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/PHOENIX

DISCUSSION...MO/NOLTE
AVIATION...JS
FIRE WEATHER...NOLTE/CB
CLIMATE...NOLTE




000
FXUS65 KTWC 092124
AFDTWC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ
223 PM MST TUE FEB 9 2016

.SYNOPSIS...STRONG HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT OVER THE WESTERN STATES WILL
PROVIDE DRY CONDITIONS WITH WELL ABOVE NORMAL DAYTIME TEMPERATURES
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...A RIDGE CURRENTLY IN PLACE OVER THE WESTERN UNITED
STATES WILL HELP TO KEEP OUR DAYTIME TEMPERATURES WELL ABOVE NORMAL
FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. DRY AND BREEZY CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL
THIS EVENING AND INTO WEDNESDAY WITH WINDS GENERALLY FROM THE EAST.
EXPECT CLEAR SKIES THROUGHOUT THE EVENING WITH JUST A FEW CIRRIFORM
CLOUDS RETURNING TO THE AREA WEDNESDAY MORNING.

THE 09/12Z MODEL SOLUTIONS HAVEN`T CHANGED MUCH FROM THE PREVIOUS
RUN...WHICH DEPICTED A RATHER WEAK DETACHED LOW OVER THE SOUTHERN
PORTION OF THE BAJA PENINSULA WHICH MODELS TEND TO AGREE WILL BE
ABSORBED BY THE PREVAILING PATTERN. MODELS ARE VERY CONSISTENT
SHOWING AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN CONUS WHICH WILL
CONTINUE TO DOMINATE THE AREA FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. DAYTIME
TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO REACH WELL INTO THE 80S UNTIL TOWARD
THE END OF THE WEEK WHEN THE RIDGE FINALLY BEGINS TO FLATTEN OUT.
OUR NEXT POTENTIAL SHOT AT PRECIPITATION COULD BE THE MIDDLE OF NEXT
WEEK...WHERE THE MOST RECENT GFS OUTPUT SHOWS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
MOVING INTO THE AREA FROM THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA. ITS STILL FAR TOO
EARLY TO SAY THAT WITH MUCH CONFIDENCE...ESPECIALLY AS THE 09/12Z
ECMWF CURRENTLY DOES NOT AGREE WITH THAT SCENARIO.

&&

.AVIATION...VALID THRU 11/00Z.
SKC THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. SURFACE WINDS WILL CONTAIN AN
EASTERLY COMPONENT THROUGH TONIGHT...WITH BREEZES RANGING FROM 5 TO
15 KTS. WINDS TONIGHT AROUND KTUS STAYING A BIT ON THE HIGHER END.
OTHERWISE WINDS WILL GENERALLY BECOME LIGHT FOR MOST TERMINALS.
SOUTHEAST BREEZE PICKING UP AGAIN IN THE MORNING NEAR KTUS WITH SOME
EARLY TO LATE MORNING GUSTS IN THE 15 TO 20 KT RANGE POSSIBLE.
AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR TAF AMENDMENTS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...DRY CONDITIONS WITH ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES
CONTINUING THROUGH THE WEEKEND. IN RESPONSE RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES
WILL REMAIN NOTICEABLY LOW...WITH LESS THAN IDEAL NIGHTTIME
RECOVERIES. LOCALLY GUSTY EAST WINDS WILL CONTINUE WEDNESDAY WITH
THE PEAK WIND SPEEDS ACROSS THE VALLEYS OCCURRING FROM THE MID
MORNING TO EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS. GUSTY WINDS ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN
WILL GENERALLY PEAK LATE NIGHT AND EARLY MORNING HOURS. LIGHTER
WINDS ARE EXPECTED THURSDAY ONWARD.

&&

.TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...YOUTUBE...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/TUCSON




000
FXUS65 KFGZ 091649
AFDFGZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ
949 AM MST TUE FEB 9 2016

.SYNOPSIS...STRONG HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE WESTERN
STATES THROUGH THIS WEEKEND. LOOK FOR CLEAR SKIES AND WARM WEATHER
ACROSS NORTHERN ARIZONA. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE 10 TO 15
DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH AT LEAST SATURDAY.

&&

.UPDATE/DISCUSSION...ONLY MINOR UPDATES WERE MADE TO THE FORECAST
GRIDS THIS MORNING TO FINE TUNE THE WIND SPEEDS/GUSTS THROUGH THIS
EVENING AND TO MAKE MINOR CHANGES TO TEMPERATURES THROUGH TODAY.
THE MAIN STORY IS THE SAME...CLEAR SKIES...MUCH ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES AND SLOWLY DECREASING NORTHEAST WINDS THROUGH THIS
EVENING.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION /230 AM MST/... THE RIDGE OF STEEL TO REMAIN IN
PLACE ACROSS THE WESTERN U.S. THROUGH SATURDAY. EXPECT DRY WEATHER
AND MILD, SPRING- LIKE MAX TEMPERATURES ACROSS NORTHERN ARIZONA.

THE PERSISTENT NE SFC WINDS ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE MOGOLLON RIM
WILL BE DECREASING WITH TIME THROUGH TODAY...WITH LIGHT WINDS THEN
FORECAST FOR THE REST OF THE WEEK. PROGS BRING A DRY COLD FRONT
THROUGH THE FOUR CORNERS AREA ON SUNDAY. ITS MAIN IMPACT WILL BE
TO BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF NE SFC WINDS TO THE AREA.

&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 18Z PACKAGE...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO
PERSIST THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY. AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR
TAF AMENDMENTS.

&&

.FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC...TAYLOR/DL
AVIATION...TAYLOR


FOR NORTHERN ARIZONA WEATHER INFORMATION VISIT
WEATHER.GOV/FLAGSTAFF




000
FXUS65 KTWC 091630
AFDTWC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ
930 AM MST TUE FEB 9 2016

.SYNOPSIS...STRONG HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT OVER THE WESTERN STATES WILL
PROVIDE DRY CONDITIONS WITH WELL ABOVE NORMAL DAYTIME TEMPERATURES
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...HIGH PRESSURE IN CONTROL OF OUR WEATHER FOR THE NEXT
SEVERAL DAYS WITH WELL ABOVE NORMAL DAYTIME TEMPERATURES. CURRENT
FORECAST LOOKED ON TRACK...SO NO UPDATES NECESSARY. PLEASE REFER TO
THE PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOR MORE DETAILS.

&&

.AVIATION...VALID THRU 10/18Z.
SKC THROUGH TONIGHT. SFC WIND WILL MAINTAIN A SELY TO NELY DIRECTION
AT 5-15 KTS WITH AFTERNOON GUSTS UP TO 20 KTS MAINLY 09/15Z THROUGH
09/21Z. AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR TAF AMENDMENTS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...HIGH PRESSURE WILL MAINTAIN THE DRY CONDITIONS AND
WELL ABOVE AVERAGE HIGH TEMPERATURES THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND. RH LEVELS
WILL ALSO BE LOWER THAN NORMAL THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND WITH AFTERNOON
MINIMUMS RANGING FROM 9-18 PERCENT ACROSS LOWER ELEVATIONS AND IN
THE 20S OVER THE MOUNTAINS. OVERNIGHT RECOVERIES IN THE VALLEYS WILL
BE SOMEWHAT LACKING AND RANGING FROM 35-45% IN ZONE 150 AND WESTERN
151 TO 45-60% ELSEWHERE. LOCALLY GUSTY EAST WINDS WILL CONTINUE
TODAY AND WEDNESDAY WITH THE PEAK WIND SPEEDS ACROSS THE VALLEYS
OCCURRING FROM THE MID MORNING TO EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS. GUSTY WINDS
ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN WILL GENERALLY PEAK LATE NIGHT AND EARLY
MORNING HOURS. LIGHTER WINDS ARE EXPECTED THURSDAY ONWARD.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...THE 09/00Z GFS/ECMWF/CMC AND RESPECTIVE
ENSEMBLESWERE VERY SIMILAR WITH THE DEPICTION OF A HIGHLY AMPLIFIED
UPPERRIDGE OVER THE WESTERN CONUS THRU FRI. EXPECT CLEAR SKIES
THRUTONIGHT FOLLOWED BY SOME CIRRIFORM CLOUDS FOR MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES
WEDINTO THUR NIGHT. CLEAR SKIES SHOULD RETURN FRI. THE UPPER RIDGE
WILLFLATTEN SAT AND THEN BECOME ESTABLISHED NEAR THE WEST COAST SUN-
MONAS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES FROM THE PACIFIC NW EWD INTO THE
GREATLAKES REGION.

THE 09/00Z GFS/ECMWF DETERMINISTIC SOLUTIONS WERE ALSO QUITE SIMILAR
WITH DEPICTING A DETACHED WEAK UPPER LOW WELL WEST OF THE BAJA
CALIFORNIA SPUR EARLY NEXT WEEK...GENERALLY NEAR 20N/130W OR EVEN
FURTHER WESTWARD. THESE SOLUTIONS NEGATE THE POSSIBILITY OF A CLOSED
UPPER LOW OVER THE SWRN CONUS EARLY NEXT WEEK VERSUS SOME PREVIOUS
DETERMINISTIC RUNS. THUS...DRY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE SAT-MON.
ALTHOUGH BEYOND THE SCOPE OF THIS FORECAST PACKAGE...HAVE NOTED THAT
THE 09/00Z GFS/ECMWF MAINTAINED PRECIP-FREE CONDITIONS ACROSS SE
ARIZONA NEXT TUE INTO WED NIGHT FOLLOWED BY THE FIRST OCCURRENCE OF
MEASURABLE PRECIP THUR (FEB 18).

HIGH TEMPS TODAY WILL GENERALLY BE WITHIN A DEGREE-OR-TWO OF TEMPS
ACHIEVED MON...AND WILL AVERAGE ABOUT 10-15 DEGS ABOVE NORMAL.
EXPECT A DEGREE-OR-SO OF DAILY WARMING WED-FRI FOLLOWED BY VIRTUALLY
NO CHANGE IN DAYTIME TEMPS SAT. A FEW DEGS OF COOLING IS FORECAST TO
OCCUR SUN FOLLOWED BY NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE IN HIGH TEMPS NEXT MON.

&&.PREV DISCUSSION...THE 09/00Z GFS/ECMWF/CMC AND RESPECTIVE
ENSEMBLESWERE VERY SIMILAR WITH THE DEPICTION OF A HIGHLY AMPLIFIED
UPPERRIDGE OVER THE WESTERN CONUS THRU FRI. EXPECT CLEAR SKIES
THRUTONIGHT FOLLOWED BY SOME CIRRIFORM CLOUDS FOR MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES
WEDINTO THUR NIGHT. CLEAR SKIES SHOULD RETURN FRI. THE UPPER RIDGE
WILLFLATTEN SAT AND THEN BECOME ESTABLISHED NEAR THE WEST COAST SUN-
MONAS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES FROM THE PACIFIC NW EWD INTO THE
GREATLAKES REGION.

THE 09/00Z GFS/ECMWF DETERMINISTIC SOLUTIONS WERE ALSO QUITE SIMILAR
WITH DEPICTING A DETACHED WEAK UPPER LOW WELL WEST OF THE BAJA
CALIFORNIA SPUR EARLY NEXT WEEK...GENERALLY NEAR 20N/130W OR EVEN
FURTHER WESTWARD. THESE SOLUTIONS NEGATE THE POSSIBILITY OF A CLOSED
UPPER LOW OVER THE SWRN CONUS EARLY NEXT WEEK VERSUS SOME PREVIOUS
DETERMINISTIC RUNS. THUS...DRY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE SAT-MON.
ALTHOUGH BEYOND THE SCOPE OF THIS FORECAST PACKAGE...HAVE NOTED THAT
THE 09/00Z GFS/ECMWF MAINTAINED PRECIP-FREE CONDITIONS ACROSS SE
ARIZONA NEXT TUE INTO WED NIGHT FOLLOWED BY THE FIRST OCCURRENCE OF
MEASURABLE PRECIP THUR (FEB 18).

HIGH TEMPS TODAY WILL GENERALLY BE WITHIN A DEGREE-OR-TWO OF TEMPS
ACHIEVED MON...AND WILL AVERAGE ABOUT 10-15 DEGS ABOVE NORMAL.
EXPECT A DEGREE-OR-SO OF DAILY WARMING WED-FRI FOLLOWED BY VIRTUALLY
NO CHANGE IN DAYTIME TEMPS SAT. A FEW DEGS OF COOLING IS FORECAST TO
OCCUR SUN FOLLOWED BY NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE IN HIGH TEMPS NEXT MON.

&&

.TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...YOUTUBE...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/TUCSON



000
FXUS65 KTWC 091630
AFDTWC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ
930 AM MST TUE FEB 9 2016

.SYNOPSIS...STRONG HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT OVER THE WESTERN STATES WILL
PROVIDE DRY CONDITIONS WITH WELL ABOVE NORMAL DAYTIME TEMPERATURES
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...HIGH PRESSURE IN CONTROL OF OUR WEATHER FOR THE NEXT
SEVERAL DAYS WITH WELL ABOVE NORMAL DAYTIME TEMPERATURES. CURRENT
FORECAST LOOKED ON TRACK...SO NO UPDATES NECESSARY. PLEASE REFER TO
THE PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOR MORE DETAILS.

&&

.AVIATION...VALID THRU 10/18Z.
SKC THROUGH TONIGHT. SFC WIND WILL MAINTAIN A SELY TO NELY DIRECTION
AT 5-15 KTS WITH AFTERNOON GUSTS UP TO 20 KTS MAINLY 09/15Z THROUGH
09/21Z. AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR TAF AMENDMENTS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...HIGH PRESSURE WILL MAINTAIN THE DRY CONDITIONS AND
WELL ABOVE AVERAGE HIGH TEMPERATURES THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND. RH LEVELS
WILL ALSO BE LOWER THAN NORMAL THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND WITH AFTERNOON
MINIMUMS RANGING FROM 9-18 PERCENT ACROSS LOWER ELEVATIONS AND IN
THE 20S OVER THE MOUNTAINS. OVERNIGHT RECOVERIES IN THE VALLEYS WILL
BE SOMEWHAT LACKING AND RANGING FROM 35-45% IN ZONE 150 AND WESTERN
151 TO 45-60% ELSEWHERE. LOCALLY GUSTY EAST WINDS WILL CONTINUE
TODAY AND WEDNESDAY WITH THE PEAK WIND SPEEDS ACROSS THE VALLEYS
OCCURRING FROM THE MID MORNING TO EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS. GUSTY WINDS
ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN WILL GENERALLY PEAK LATE NIGHT AND EARLY
MORNING HOURS. LIGHTER WINDS ARE EXPECTED THURSDAY ONWARD.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...THE 09/00Z GFS/ECMWF/CMC AND RESPECTIVE
ENSEMBLESWERE VERY SIMILAR WITH THE DEPICTION OF A HIGHLY AMPLIFIED
UPPERRIDGE OVER THE WESTERN CONUS THRU FRI. EXPECT CLEAR SKIES
THRUTONIGHT FOLLOWED BY SOME CIRRIFORM CLOUDS FOR MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES
WEDINTO THUR NIGHT. CLEAR SKIES SHOULD RETURN FRI. THE UPPER RIDGE
WILLFLATTEN SAT AND THEN BECOME ESTABLISHED NEAR THE WEST COAST SUN-
MONAS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES FROM THE PACIFIC NW EWD INTO THE
GREATLAKES REGION.

THE 09/00Z GFS/ECMWF DETERMINISTIC SOLUTIONS WERE ALSO QUITE SIMILAR
WITH DEPICTING A DETACHED WEAK UPPER LOW WELL WEST OF THE BAJA
CALIFORNIA SPUR EARLY NEXT WEEK...GENERALLY NEAR 20N/130W OR EVEN
FURTHER WESTWARD. THESE SOLUTIONS NEGATE THE POSSIBILITY OF A CLOSED
UPPER LOW OVER THE SWRN CONUS EARLY NEXT WEEK VERSUS SOME PREVIOUS
DETERMINISTIC RUNS. THUS...DRY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE SAT-MON.
ALTHOUGH BEYOND THE SCOPE OF THIS FORECAST PACKAGE...HAVE NOTED THAT
THE 09/00Z GFS/ECMWF MAINTAINED PRECIP-FREE CONDITIONS ACROSS SE
ARIZONA NEXT TUE INTO WED NIGHT FOLLOWED BY THE FIRST OCCURRENCE OF
MEASURABLE PRECIP THUR (FEB 18).

HIGH TEMPS TODAY WILL GENERALLY BE WITHIN A DEGREE-OR-TWO OF TEMPS
ACHIEVED MON...AND WILL AVERAGE ABOUT 10-15 DEGS ABOVE NORMAL.
EXPECT A DEGREE-OR-SO OF DAILY WARMING WED-FRI FOLLOWED BY VIRTUALLY
NO CHANGE IN DAYTIME TEMPS SAT. A FEW DEGS OF COOLING IS FORECAST TO
OCCUR SUN FOLLOWED BY NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE IN HIGH TEMPS NEXT MON.

&&.PREV DISCUSSION...THE 09/00Z GFS/ECMWF/CMC AND RESPECTIVE
ENSEMBLESWERE VERY SIMILAR WITH THE DEPICTION OF A HIGHLY AMPLIFIED
UPPERRIDGE OVER THE WESTERN CONUS THRU FRI. EXPECT CLEAR SKIES
THRUTONIGHT FOLLOWED BY SOME CIRRIFORM CLOUDS FOR MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES
WEDINTO THUR NIGHT. CLEAR SKIES SHOULD RETURN FRI. THE UPPER RIDGE
WILLFLATTEN SAT AND THEN BECOME ESTABLISHED NEAR THE WEST COAST SUN-
MONAS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES FROM THE PACIFIC NW EWD INTO THE
GREATLAKES REGION.

THE 09/00Z GFS/ECMWF DETERMINISTIC SOLUTIONS WERE ALSO QUITE SIMILAR
WITH DEPICTING A DETACHED WEAK UPPER LOW WELL WEST OF THE BAJA
CALIFORNIA SPUR EARLY NEXT WEEK...GENERALLY NEAR 20N/130W OR EVEN
FURTHER WESTWARD. THESE SOLUTIONS NEGATE THE POSSIBILITY OF A CLOSED
UPPER LOW OVER THE SWRN CONUS EARLY NEXT WEEK VERSUS SOME PREVIOUS
DETERMINISTIC RUNS. THUS...DRY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE SAT-MON.
ALTHOUGH BEYOND THE SCOPE OF THIS FORECAST PACKAGE...HAVE NOTED THAT
THE 09/00Z GFS/ECMWF MAINTAINED PRECIP-FREE CONDITIONS ACROSS SE
ARIZONA NEXT TUE INTO WED NIGHT FOLLOWED BY THE FIRST OCCURRENCE OF
MEASURABLE PRECIP THUR (FEB 18).

HIGH TEMPS TODAY WILL GENERALLY BE WITHIN A DEGREE-OR-TWO OF TEMPS
ACHIEVED MON...AND WILL AVERAGE ABOUT 10-15 DEGS ABOVE NORMAL.
EXPECT A DEGREE-OR-SO OF DAILY WARMING WED-FRI FOLLOWED BY VIRTUALLY
NO CHANGE IN DAYTIME TEMPS SAT. A FEW DEGS OF COOLING IS FORECAST TO
OCCUR SUN FOLLOWED BY NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE IN HIGH TEMPS NEXT MON.

&&

.TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...YOUTUBE...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/TUCSON




000
FXUS65 KPSR 091533
AFDPSR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PHOENIX AZ
830 AM MST TUE FEB 9 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN THE DOMINANT WEATHER FEATURE OVER THE
SOUTHWESTERN UNITED STATES THIS WEEK. THIS WILL RESULT IN A
PROLONGED PERIOD OF SUNNY SKIES...MUCH ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES...RELATIVELY LIGHT WINDS...AND LOW HUMIDITY VALUES.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
BLOCKED HIGH AMPLITUDE FLOW REMAINS ENTRENCHED ACROSS THE WRN
HEMISPHERE WITH RIDGING EXTENDING ALONG THE WEST COAST OF NORTH
AMERICA. GIVEN THIS FLOW PATTERN...SFC PRESSURE RISES OVER THE GREAT
BASIN HAVE FORCED A STEEPER PRESSURE GRADIENT THROUGH CNTRL ARIZONA
ALLOWING MIXING WINDS TO PERSIST THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. AS
SUCH...LOWS THIS MORNING HAVE MOSTLY BEEN SUBSTANTIALLY WARMER THAN
PERSISTENCE AND CURRENT OBSERVATIONS MUCH HIGHER THAN PREVIOUSLY
FORECAST. DESPITE THE WARMER START TO THE DAY...12Z KTWC SOUNDING
DATA WITH H8 TEMPERATURES ABOVE THE 90TH PERCENTILE SUGGEST EVENTUAL
HIGHS VERY CLOSE TO THOSE EXPERIENCED MONDAY (NEAR RECORD HIGHS -SEE
CLIMATE SECTION BELOW). THUS...HAVE ADJUSTED HOURLY TEMPERATURES TO
BLEND INTO READINGS PEAKING MID/LATE AFTERNOON.

&&

.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
/510 AM MST TUE FEB 9 2016/
UNSEASONABLY STRONG RIDGING WILL PERSIST OVER THE WEST FOR THE REST
OF THE WEEK. 1000-500MB THICKNESSES ARE FORECAST TO PEAK FRIDAY
AFTERNOON...WHICH COULD BE OUR WARMEST DAY OF THE WEEK AS THE RIDGE
AXIS CLEARS TO OUR EAST AND SOME MODEST WAA MOVES INTO THE REGION.
WIDESPREAD LOW TO MID 80 DEGREE READINGS WILL OCCUR FOR MANY LOWER
DESERT SITES...WITH SOME RECORD OR NEAR RECORD VALUES POSSIBLE FOR
BOTH PHOENIX AND YUMA. PLEASE REFERENCE THE UPDATED CLIMATE SECTION
FOR THE FORECAST AND RECORD DETAILS. SWIFT PASSAGE OF THE SOUTHERN
END OF A DRY /FOR US/ PAC NORTHWEST SHORTWAVE MAY SUPPORT A DEGREE
OR TWO OF COOLING FOR SATURDAY AND SUNDAY WITH THE COMBINATION OF
SLIGHTLY LOWER UL HEIGHTS AND SOME HIGH LEVEL CLOUDINESS. RIDGING
QUICKLY REBOUNDS BY EARLY NEXT WEEK AND THE WARMTH AND ABOVE-NORMAL
TEMPERATURES RETURN. HOWEVER...OF CONTINUED INTEREST IS...A SHEARED
PORTION OF THIS PAC NW TROUGH FORMING INTO A CUTOFF LOW OFF THE SAN
DIEGO COAST SUNDAY...DEEPENING SOUTH TO OFFSHORE SOUTHERN BAJA
MONDAY...NEAR THE NORTHERN EDGES OF WARM EL NINO WATERS. THIS AREA
OFFSHORE PRESENTS ALMOST LIKE THE SOUTHERN BRANCH OF A REX
BLOCK...WITH LOWER HEIGHTS/GENERAL WEAKNESS PERSISTING.

PATTERN PREDICTABILITY DROPS OFF AND ENSEMBLE SPREAD INCREASES
TOWARDS THE LATTER END OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD AS SOME TROPICAL
PACIFIC CONVECTION AND JET STREAKING TAKE ADVANTAGE OF THOSE
PERSISTENT LOW HEIGHT ANOMALIES OVER THE EAST PACIFIC/BAJA PENINSULA.
AS THE DAY SHIFT NOTED THIS ATMOSPHERIC SET-UP HAS OCCURRED IN
PREVIOUS EL NINO YEARS /CUTOFF LOWS IN THIS EL NINO REGION HAVE SPUN
UP INCREDIBLY FAST DUE TO THE PHASING OF A SUBTROPICAL JETSTREAM/
RESULTING IN EVENTUAL PRECIP ACTIVITY DOWNSTREAM OVER THE SOUTHWEST
DESERTS. DETERMINISTIC MODEL RUNS ARE BROADLY AGREEING ON THE IDEA
OF STRONGER AND DEEPER PACIFIC TROUGH SWEEPING INTO SOUTHERN WEST
COAST TOWARDS THE LATTER PART OF NEXT WEEK AND MODTREND GUIDANCE
FROM THE GFS POINTS TO SOME PERSISTENT WEAKENING OF 500MB HEIGHTS
OVER THE CENTRAL PACIFIC UPSTREAM BY THU-FRI NEXT WEEK. WE ARE JUST
OUTSIDE THE WINDOW OF GETTING IVT/AR GUIDANCE BUT BROAD MODEL
AGREEMENT ON THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN NEVER HURTS TO SEE THIS FAR OUT.

&&

.AVIATION...
SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA INCLUDING KPHX...KIWA...AND KSDL...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE INTERIOR WEST CENTERED NORTH OF ARIZONA WILL
ACT TO KEEP WINDS FROM AN EASTERLY DIRECTION AT ALL OF THE PHX AREA
TERMINALS THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. WIND SPEED WILL REMAIN MAINLY AOB
8 KTS...EXCEPT FOR A PERIOD OF TIME DURING THE LATE MORNING-EARLY
AFTERNOON HOURS TODAY WHEN STRONGER WINDS ALOFT MIXING DOWN TO THE
SFC INCREASES SPEEDS A BIT...UP INTO THE 10-14KT RANGE AT KPHX.
NOTE: GUIDANCE SUGGESTS A SHALLOW LAYER OF ELEVATED EAST WINDS JUST
ABOVE THE SURFACE THIS MORNING...SUFFICIENT TO LEAD TO MODEST LLWS
AND AS SUCH THIS HAS BEEN ADDED TO THE TAFS INCLUDING THE KPHX
TAF. SKIES TO REMAIN CLEAR THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.

SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA/SOUTHWEST ARIZONA INCLUDING KIPL AND KBLH...
NORTHERLY BREEZES AT KBLH TO GRADUALLY DIMINISH THIS MORNING AS THE
SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENTS WEAKEN OVER THE REGION WITH WINDS
BECOMING LIGHT/VARIABLE BY THIS AFTERNOON. WINDS AT KIPL TO REMAIN
ON THE LIGHT SIDE...MAINLY AOB 8 KTS...FOLLOWING TYPICAL DIURNAL
TRENDS. SKIES TO REMAIN MAINLY CLEAR NEXT 24 HOURS WITH SOME PATCHY
CIRRUS CLOUD LAYERS PASSING OVER THE TERMINALS DURING THE DAY
TODAY.

AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDED TAFS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY...
AN UNSEASONABLY STRONG HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE OVER
THE WESTERN STATES THIS WEEK AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. THIS WILL
LEAD TO A PERSISTENT PERIOD OF WELL ABOVE NORMALS HIGH
TEMPERATURES...WITH READINGS PEAKING 10 TO 15 DEGREES ABOVE SEASONAL
NORMALS. MANY LOWER ELEVATION AND DESERT SITES WILL SEE A STRETCH OF
DAYS WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES WARMING PAST THE 80 DEGREE MARK. RH`S
WILL ALSO REMAIN ON THE DRIER AND BELOW NORMAL SIDE DURING THE WEEK
WITH MIN VALUES TYPICALLY IN THE LOW TO MIDDLE TEENS.

LIGHT WINDS ARE EXPECTED THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...AND WILL
GENERALLY FOLLOW TYPICAL DRAINAGE/SLOPE DRIVEN HEADINGS WITH LIGHT
SPEEDS. INCREASED NORTHERLY BREEZES ARE EXPECTED OVER THE WESTERN
DESERTS...ESPECIALLY ALONG THE LOWER COLORADO RIVER VALLEY...SUNDAY
INTO MONDAY. SUNNY DAYS AND CLEAR NIGHTS WILL BE REPLACED BY
VARIABLE HIGH CLOUDINESS STARTING FRIDAY AND CONTINUING THROUGH THE
WEEKEND.

&&

.CLIMATE...
                   PHOENIX         |        YUMA
             FCST | RECORD (YEAR)  | FCST | RECORD (YEAR)

TUE FEB 9      84 | 84 (1987)      |   84 | 90 (2015)
WED FEB 10     84 | 87 (1951)      |   84 | 93 (1951)
THU FEB 11     85 | 83 (1951)      |   85 | 86 (1971)
FRI FEB 12     86 | 84 (1988)      |   85 | 87 (1957)
SAT FEB 13     86 | 88 (1957)      |   85 | 93 (1957)
SUN FEB 14     83 | 85 (2014)      |   83 | 94 (1957)

&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT BASED ON STANDARD OPERATING
PROCEDURES.

&&

.PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AZ...NONE.
CA...NONE.

&&

$$

VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/PHOENIX

DISCUSSION...MO/NOLTE
AVIATION...PERCHA/CB
FIRE WEATHER...NOLTE/CB
CLIMATE...NOLTE




000
FXUS65 KPSR 091210 AAA
AFDPSR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PHOENIX AZ
510 AM MST TUE FEB 9 2016

.UPDATE...UPDATED AVIATION AND FIRE WEATHER DISCUSSIONS.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN THE DOMINANT WEATHER FEATURE OVER THE
SOUTHWESTERN UNITED STATES THIS WEEK. THIS WILL RESULT IN A PROLONGED
PERIOD OF SUNNY SKIES...ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES... RELATIVELY LIGHT
WINDS...AND LOW HUMIDITY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
OUR FIRST OCCURRENCE OF 80F-PLUS IN PHOENIX DID NOT DISAPPOINT
YESTERDAY...WARMING ALL THE WAY UP TO 85F AND ONE DEGREE SHY OF THE
RECORD FOR THE CALENDAR DAY. OTHER SITES AROUND THE AREA WERE
EQUIVALENTLY WARM...YUMA...EL CENTRO AND PARKER AT 83F AND LOWER 80S
FOR NEARLY ALL ACROSS THE LOWER DESERTS. NO SURPRISE THAT GIVEN THE
WARM AFTERNOON AND OVERNIGHT BREEZES TEMPERATURES ARE STILL RUNNING
ON THE WARM SIDE AND 2 TO 4 DEGREES HIGHER THAN THIS TIME MONDAY AM.
CONUS WATER VAPOR IMAGERY OVERNIGHT SHOWS TROUGHING OVER THE
EAST...HIGH AMPLITUDE RIDGING OVER THE WEST COAST AND A SLOW EXITING
UL LOW TO OUR SOUTH OVER BAJA SUR/SONORA/SINALOA. SFC HIGH PRESSURE
NORTH OF THE FOUR CORNERS AND SUBSIDENT NORTHERLY FLOW ALOFT ARE
STILL SET-UP TO PROMOTE NORTHEASTERLY BREEZES ACROSS SOUTH-CENTRAL AZ
AND NORTHERLY BREEZES FOR THE CO RIVER VALLEY.

UNSEASONABLY STRONG RIDGING WILL PERSIST OVER THE WEST FOR THE REST
OF THE WEEK. 1000-500MB THICKNESSES ARE FORECAST TO PEAK FRIDAY
AFTERNOON...WHICH COULD BE OUR WARMEST DAY OF THE WEEK AS THE RIDGE
AXIS CLEARS TO OUR EAST AND SOME MODEST WAA MOVES INTO THE REGION.
WIDESPREAD LOW TO MID 80 DEGREE READINGS WILL OCCUR FOR MANY LOWER
DESERT SITES...WITH SOME RECORD OR NEAR RECORD VALUES POSSIBLE FOR
BOTH PHOENIX AND YUMA. PLEASE REFERENCE THE UPDATED CLIMATE SECTION
FOR THE FORECAST AND RECORD DETAILS. SWIFT PASSAGE OF THE SOUTHERN
END OF A DRY /FOR US/ PAC NORTHWEST SHORTWAVE MAY SUPPORT A DEGREE OR
TWO OF COOLING FOR SATURDAY AND SUNDAY WITH THE COMBINATION OF
SLIGHTLY LOWER UL HEIGHTS AND SOME HIGH LEVEL CLOUDINESS. RIDGING
QUICKLY REBOUNDS BY EARLY NEXT WEEK AND THE WARMTH AND ABOVE-NORMAL
TEMPERATURES RETURN. HOWEVER...OF CONTINUED INTEREST IS...A SHEARED
PORTION OF THIS PAC NW TROUGH FORMING INTO A CUTOFF LOW OFF THE SAN
DIEGO COAST SUNDAY...DEEPENING SOUTH TO OFFSHORE SOUTHERN BAJA
MONDAY...NEAR THE NORTHERN EDGES OF WARM EL NINO WATERS. THIS AREA
OFFSHORE PRESENTS ALMOST LIKE THE SOUTHERN BRANCH OF A REX
BLOCK...WITH LOWER HEIGHTS/GENERAL WEAKNESS PERSISTING.

PATTERN PREDICTABILITY DROPS OFF AND ENSEMBLE SPREAD INCREASES
TOWARDS THE LATTER END OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD AS SOME TROPICAL
PACIFIC CONVECTION AND JET STREAKING TAKE ADVANTAGE OF THOSE
PERSISTENT LOW HEIGHT ANOMALIES OVER THE EAST PACIFIC/BAJA PENINSULA.
AS THE DAY SHIFT NOTED THIS ATMOSPHERIC SET-UP HAS OCCURRED IN
PREVIOUS EL NINO YEARS /CUTOFF LOWS IN THIS EL NINO REGION HAVE SPUN
UP INCREDIBLY FAST DUE TO THE PHASING OF A SUBTROPICAL JETSTREAM/
RESULTING IN EVENTUAL PRECIP ACTIVITY DOWNSTREAM OVER THE SOUTHWEST
DESERTS. DETERMINISTIC MODEL RUNS ARE BROADLY AGREEING ON THE IDEA
OF STRONGER AND DEEPER PACIFIC TROUGH SWEEPING INTO SOUTHERN WEST
COAST TOWARDS THE LATTER PART OF NEXT WEEK AND MODTREND GUIDANCE
FROM THE GFS POINTS TO SOME PERSISTENT WEAKENING OF 500MB HEIGHTS
OVER THE CENTRAL PACIFIC UPSTREAM BY THU-FRI NEXT WEEK. WE ARE JUST
OUTSIDE THE WINDOW OF GETTING IVT/AR GUIDANCE BUT BROAD MODEL
AGREEMENT ON THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN NEVER HURTS TO SEE THIS FAR OUT.

&&

.AVIATION...
SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA INCLUDING KPHX...KIWA...AND KSDL...

HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE INTERIOR WEST CENTERED NORTH OF ARIZONA WILL
ACT TO KEEP WINDS FROM AN EASTERLY DIRECTION AT ALL OF THE PHX AREA
TERMINALS THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. WIND SPEED WILL REMAIN MAINLY AOB
8 KTS...EXCEPT FOR A PERIOD OF TIME DURING THE LATE MORNING-EARLY
AFTERNOON HOURS TODAY WHEN STRONGER WINDS ALOFT MIXING DOWN TO THE
SFC INCREASES SPEEDS A BIT...UP INTO THE 10-14KT RANGE AT KPHX.
NOTE: GUIDANCE SUGGESTS A SHALLOW LAYER OF ELEVATED EAST WINDS JUST
ABOVE THE SURFACE THIS MORNING...SUFFICIENT TO LEAD TO MODEST LLWS
AND AS SUCH THIS HAS BEEN ADDED TO THE TAFS INCLUDING THE KPHX
TAF. SKIES TO REMAIN CLEAR THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.

SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA/SOUTHWEST ARIZONA INCLUDING KIPL AND KBLH...

NORTHERLY BREEZES AT KBLH TO GRADUALLY DIMINISH THIS MORNING AS THE
SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENTS WEAKEN OVER THE REGION WITH WINDS
BECOMING LIGHT/VARIABLE BY THIS AFTERNOON. WINDS AT KIPL TO REMAIN
ON THE LIGHT SIDE...MAINLY AOB 8 KTS...FOLLOWING TYPICAL DIURNAL
TRENDS. SKIES TO REMAIN MAINLY CLEAR NEXT 24 HOURS WITH SOME PATCHY
CIRRUS CLOUD LAYERS PASSING OVER THE TERMINALS DURING THE DAY
TODAY.

AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDED TAFS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY... AN UNSEASONABLY STRONG HIGH PRESSURE
RIDGE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE OVER THE WESTERN STATES THIS WEEK AND
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. THIS WILL LEAD TO A PERSISTENT PERIOD OF WELL
ABOVE NORMALS HIGH TEMPERATURES...WITH READINGS PEAKING 10 TO 15
DEGREES ABOVE SEASONAL NORMALS. MANY LOWER ELEVATION AND DESERT
SITES WILL SEE A STRETCH OF DAYS WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES WARMING PAST
THE 80 DEGREE MARK. RH`S WILL ALSO REMAIN ON THE DRIER AND BELOW
NORMAL SIDE DURING THE WEEK WITH MIN VALUES TYPICALLY IN THE LOW TO
MIDDLE TEENS.

LIGHT WINDS ARE EXPECTED THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...AND WILL
GENERALLY FOLLOW TYPICAL DRAINAGE/SLOPE DRIVEN HEADINGS WITH LIGHT
SPEEDS. INCREASED NORTHERLY BREEZES ARE EXPECTED OVER THE WESTERN
DESERTS...ESPECIALLY ALONG THE LOWER COLORADO RIVER VALLEY...SUNDAY
INTO MONDAY. SUNNY DAYS AND CLEAR NIGHTS WILL BE REPLACED BY
VARIABLE HIGH CLOUDINESS STARTING FRIDAY AND CONTINUING THROUGH THE
WEEKEND.

&&

.CLIMATE...
                   PHOENIX         |        YUMA
             FCST | RECORD (YEAR)  | FCST | RECORD (YEAR)

TUE FEB 9      84 | 84 (1987)      |   84 | 90 (2015)
WED FEB 10     84 | 87 (1951)      |   84 | 93 (1951)
THU FEB 11     85 | 83 (1951)      |   85 | 86 (1971)
FRI FEB 12     86 | 84 (1988)      |   85 | 87 (1957)
SAT FEB 13     86 | 88 (1957)      |   85 | 93 (1957)
SUN FEB 14     83 | 85 (2014)      |   83 | 94 (1957)

&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT BASED ON STANDARD OPERATING
PROCEDURES.

&&

.PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AZ...NONE.
CA...NONE.
&&

$$

VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/PHOENIX

DISCUSSION...NOLTE
AVIATION...PERCHA/CB
FIRE WEATHER...NOLTE/CB
CLIMATE...NOLTE




000
FXUS65 KPSR 091210 AAA
AFDPSR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PHOENIX AZ
510 AM MST TUE FEB 9 2016

.UPDATE...UPDATED AVIATION AND FIRE WEATHER DISCUSSIONS.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN THE DOMINANT WEATHER FEATURE OVER THE
SOUTHWESTERN UNITED STATES THIS WEEK. THIS WILL RESULT IN A PROLONGED
PERIOD OF SUNNY SKIES...ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES... RELATIVELY LIGHT
WINDS...AND LOW HUMIDITY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
OUR FIRST OCCURRENCE OF 80F-PLUS IN PHOENIX DID NOT DISAPPOINT
YESTERDAY...WARMING ALL THE WAY UP TO 85F AND ONE DEGREE SHY OF THE
RECORD FOR THE CALENDAR DAY. OTHER SITES AROUND THE AREA WERE
EQUIVALENTLY WARM...YUMA...EL CENTRO AND PARKER AT 83F AND LOWER 80S
FOR NEARLY ALL ACROSS THE LOWER DESERTS. NO SURPRISE THAT GIVEN THE
WARM AFTERNOON AND OVERNIGHT BREEZES TEMPERATURES ARE STILL RUNNING
ON THE WARM SIDE AND 2 TO 4 DEGREES HIGHER THAN THIS TIME MONDAY AM.
CONUS WATER VAPOR IMAGERY OVERNIGHT SHOWS TROUGHING OVER THE
EAST...HIGH AMPLITUDE RIDGING OVER THE WEST COAST AND A SLOW EXITING
UL LOW TO OUR SOUTH OVER BAJA SUR/SONORA/SINALOA. SFC HIGH PRESSURE
NORTH OF THE FOUR CORNERS AND SUBSIDENT NORTHERLY FLOW ALOFT ARE
STILL SET-UP TO PROMOTE NORTHEASTERLY BREEZES ACROSS SOUTH-CENTRAL AZ
AND NORTHERLY BREEZES FOR THE CO RIVER VALLEY.

UNSEASONABLY STRONG RIDGING WILL PERSIST OVER THE WEST FOR THE REST
OF THE WEEK. 1000-500MB THICKNESSES ARE FORECAST TO PEAK FRIDAY
AFTERNOON...WHICH COULD BE OUR WARMEST DAY OF THE WEEK AS THE RIDGE
AXIS CLEARS TO OUR EAST AND SOME MODEST WAA MOVES INTO THE REGION.
WIDESPREAD LOW TO MID 80 DEGREE READINGS WILL OCCUR FOR MANY LOWER
DESERT SITES...WITH SOME RECORD OR NEAR RECORD VALUES POSSIBLE FOR
BOTH PHOENIX AND YUMA. PLEASE REFERENCE THE UPDATED CLIMATE SECTION
FOR THE FORECAST AND RECORD DETAILS. SWIFT PASSAGE OF THE SOUTHERN
END OF A DRY /FOR US/ PAC NORTHWEST SHORTWAVE MAY SUPPORT A DEGREE OR
TWO OF COOLING FOR SATURDAY AND SUNDAY WITH THE COMBINATION OF
SLIGHTLY LOWER UL HEIGHTS AND SOME HIGH LEVEL CLOUDINESS. RIDGING
QUICKLY REBOUNDS BY EARLY NEXT WEEK AND THE WARMTH AND ABOVE-NORMAL
TEMPERATURES RETURN. HOWEVER...OF CONTINUED INTEREST IS...A SHEARED
PORTION OF THIS PAC NW TROUGH FORMING INTO A CUTOFF LOW OFF THE SAN
DIEGO COAST SUNDAY...DEEPENING SOUTH TO OFFSHORE SOUTHERN BAJA
MONDAY...NEAR THE NORTHERN EDGES OF WARM EL NINO WATERS. THIS AREA
OFFSHORE PRESENTS ALMOST LIKE THE SOUTHERN BRANCH OF A REX
BLOCK...WITH LOWER HEIGHTS/GENERAL WEAKNESS PERSISTING.

PATTERN PREDICTABILITY DROPS OFF AND ENSEMBLE SPREAD INCREASES
TOWARDS THE LATTER END OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD AS SOME TROPICAL
PACIFIC CONVECTION AND JET STREAKING TAKE ADVANTAGE OF THOSE
PERSISTENT LOW HEIGHT ANOMALIES OVER THE EAST PACIFIC/BAJA PENINSULA.
AS THE DAY SHIFT NOTED THIS ATMOSPHERIC SET-UP HAS OCCURRED IN
PREVIOUS EL NINO YEARS /CUTOFF LOWS IN THIS EL NINO REGION HAVE SPUN
UP INCREDIBLY FAST DUE TO THE PHASING OF A SUBTROPICAL JETSTREAM/
RESULTING IN EVENTUAL PRECIP ACTIVITY DOWNSTREAM OVER THE SOUTHWEST
DESERTS. DETERMINISTIC MODEL RUNS ARE BROADLY AGREEING ON THE IDEA
OF STRONGER AND DEEPER PACIFIC TROUGH SWEEPING INTO SOUTHERN WEST
COAST TOWARDS THE LATTER PART OF NEXT WEEK AND MODTREND GUIDANCE
FROM THE GFS POINTS TO SOME PERSISTENT WEAKENING OF 500MB HEIGHTS
OVER THE CENTRAL PACIFIC UPSTREAM BY THU-FRI NEXT WEEK. WE ARE JUST
OUTSIDE THE WINDOW OF GETTING IVT/AR GUIDANCE BUT BROAD MODEL
AGREEMENT ON THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN NEVER HURTS TO SEE THIS FAR OUT.

&&

.AVIATION...
SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA INCLUDING KPHX...KIWA...AND KSDL...

HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE INTERIOR WEST CENTERED NORTH OF ARIZONA WILL
ACT TO KEEP WINDS FROM AN EASTERLY DIRECTION AT ALL OF THE PHX AREA
TERMINALS THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. WIND SPEED WILL REMAIN MAINLY AOB
8 KTS...EXCEPT FOR A PERIOD OF TIME DURING THE LATE MORNING-EARLY
AFTERNOON HOURS TODAY WHEN STRONGER WINDS ALOFT MIXING DOWN TO THE
SFC INCREASES SPEEDS A BIT...UP INTO THE 10-14KT RANGE AT KPHX.
NOTE: GUIDANCE SUGGESTS A SHALLOW LAYER OF ELEVATED EAST WINDS JUST
ABOVE THE SURFACE THIS MORNING...SUFFICIENT TO LEAD TO MODEST LLWS
AND AS SUCH THIS HAS BEEN ADDED TO THE TAFS INCLUDING THE KPHX
TAF. SKIES TO REMAIN CLEAR THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.

SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA/SOUTHWEST ARIZONA INCLUDING KIPL AND KBLH...

NORTHERLY BREEZES AT KBLH TO GRADUALLY DIMINISH THIS MORNING AS THE
SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENTS WEAKEN OVER THE REGION WITH WINDS
BECOMING LIGHT/VARIABLE BY THIS AFTERNOON. WINDS AT KIPL TO REMAIN
ON THE LIGHT SIDE...MAINLY AOB 8 KTS...FOLLOWING TYPICAL DIURNAL
TRENDS. SKIES TO REMAIN MAINLY CLEAR NEXT 24 HOURS WITH SOME PATCHY
CIRRUS CLOUD LAYERS PASSING OVER THE TERMINALS DURING THE DAY
TODAY.

AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDED TAFS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY... AN UNSEASONABLY STRONG HIGH PRESSURE
RIDGE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE OVER THE WESTERN STATES THIS WEEK AND
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. THIS WILL LEAD TO A PERSISTENT PERIOD OF WELL
ABOVE NORMALS HIGH TEMPERATURES...WITH READINGS PEAKING 10 TO 15
DEGREES ABOVE SEASONAL NORMALS. MANY LOWER ELEVATION AND DESERT
SITES WILL SEE A STRETCH OF DAYS WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES WARMING PAST
THE 80 DEGREE MARK. RH`S WILL ALSO REMAIN ON THE DRIER AND BELOW
NORMAL SIDE DURING THE WEEK WITH MIN VALUES TYPICALLY IN THE LOW TO
MIDDLE TEENS.

LIGHT WINDS ARE EXPECTED THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...AND WILL
GENERALLY FOLLOW TYPICAL DRAINAGE/SLOPE DRIVEN HEADINGS WITH LIGHT
SPEEDS. INCREASED NORTHERLY BREEZES ARE EXPECTED OVER THE WESTERN
DESERTS...ESPECIALLY ALONG THE LOWER COLORADO RIVER VALLEY...SUNDAY
INTO MONDAY. SUNNY DAYS AND CLEAR NIGHTS WILL BE REPLACED BY
VARIABLE HIGH CLOUDINESS STARTING FRIDAY AND CONTINUING THROUGH THE
WEEKEND.

&&

.CLIMATE...
                   PHOENIX         |        YUMA
             FCST | RECORD (YEAR)  | FCST | RECORD (YEAR)

TUE FEB 9      84 | 84 (1987)      |   84 | 90 (2015)
WED FEB 10     84 | 87 (1951)      |   84 | 93 (1951)
THU FEB 11     85 | 83 (1951)      |   85 | 86 (1971)
FRI FEB 12     86 | 84 (1988)      |   85 | 87 (1957)
SAT FEB 13     86 | 88 (1957)      |   85 | 93 (1957)
SUN FEB 14     83 | 85 (2014)      |   83 | 94 (1957)

&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT BASED ON STANDARD OPERATING
PROCEDURES.

&&

.PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AZ...NONE.
CA...NONE.
&&

$$

VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/PHOENIX

DISCUSSION...NOLTE
AVIATION...PERCHA/CB
FIRE WEATHER...NOLTE/CB
CLIMATE...NOLTE




000
FXUS65 KPSR 091210 AAA
AFDPSR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PHOENIX AZ
510 AM MST TUE FEB 9 2016

.UPDATE...UPDATED AVIATION AND FIRE WEATHER DISCUSSIONS.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN THE DOMINANT WEATHER FEATURE OVER THE
SOUTHWESTERN UNITED STATES THIS WEEK. THIS WILL RESULT IN A PROLONGED
PERIOD OF SUNNY SKIES...ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES... RELATIVELY LIGHT
WINDS...AND LOW HUMIDITY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
OUR FIRST OCCURRENCE OF 80F-PLUS IN PHOENIX DID NOT DISAPPOINT
YESTERDAY...WARMING ALL THE WAY UP TO 85F AND ONE DEGREE SHY OF THE
RECORD FOR THE CALENDAR DAY. OTHER SITES AROUND THE AREA WERE
EQUIVALENTLY WARM...YUMA...EL CENTRO AND PARKER AT 83F AND LOWER 80S
FOR NEARLY ALL ACROSS THE LOWER DESERTS. NO SURPRISE THAT GIVEN THE
WARM AFTERNOON AND OVERNIGHT BREEZES TEMPERATURES ARE STILL RUNNING
ON THE WARM SIDE AND 2 TO 4 DEGREES HIGHER THAN THIS TIME MONDAY AM.
CONUS WATER VAPOR IMAGERY OVERNIGHT SHOWS TROUGHING OVER THE
EAST...HIGH AMPLITUDE RIDGING OVER THE WEST COAST AND A SLOW EXITING
UL LOW TO OUR SOUTH OVER BAJA SUR/SONORA/SINALOA. SFC HIGH PRESSURE
NORTH OF THE FOUR CORNERS AND SUBSIDENT NORTHERLY FLOW ALOFT ARE
STILL SET-UP TO PROMOTE NORTHEASTERLY BREEZES ACROSS SOUTH-CENTRAL AZ
AND NORTHERLY BREEZES FOR THE CO RIVER VALLEY.

UNSEASONABLY STRONG RIDGING WILL PERSIST OVER THE WEST FOR THE REST
OF THE WEEK. 1000-500MB THICKNESSES ARE FORECAST TO PEAK FRIDAY
AFTERNOON...WHICH COULD BE OUR WARMEST DAY OF THE WEEK AS THE RIDGE
AXIS CLEARS TO OUR EAST AND SOME MODEST WAA MOVES INTO THE REGION.
WIDESPREAD LOW TO MID 80 DEGREE READINGS WILL OCCUR FOR MANY LOWER
DESERT SITES...WITH SOME RECORD OR NEAR RECORD VALUES POSSIBLE FOR
BOTH PHOENIX AND YUMA. PLEASE REFERENCE THE UPDATED CLIMATE SECTION
FOR THE FORECAST AND RECORD DETAILS. SWIFT PASSAGE OF THE SOUTHERN
END OF A DRY /FOR US/ PAC NORTHWEST SHORTWAVE MAY SUPPORT A DEGREE OR
TWO OF COOLING FOR SATURDAY AND SUNDAY WITH THE COMBINATION OF
SLIGHTLY LOWER UL HEIGHTS AND SOME HIGH LEVEL CLOUDINESS. RIDGING
QUICKLY REBOUNDS BY EARLY NEXT WEEK AND THE WARMTH AND ABOVE-NORMAL
TEMPERATURES RETURN. HOWEVER...OF CONTINUED INTEREST IS...A SHEARED
PORTION OF THIS PAC NW TROUGH FORMING INTO A CUTOFF LOW OFF THE SAN
DIEGO COAST SUNDAY...DEEPENING SOUTH TO OFFSHORE SOUTHERN BAJA
MONDAY...NEAR THE NORTHERN EDGES OF WARM EL NINO WATERS. THIS AREA
OFFSHORE PRESENTS ALMOST LIKE THE SOUTHERN BRANCH OF A REX
BLOCK...WITH LOWER HEIGHTS/GENERAL WEAKNESS PERSISTING.

PATTERN PREDICTABILITY DROPS OFF AND ENSEMBLE SPREAD INCREASES
TOWARDS THE LATTER END OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD AS SOME TROPICAL
PACIFIC CONVECTION AND JET STREAKING TAKE ADVANTAGE OF THOSE
PERSISTENT LOW HEIGHT ANOMALIES OVER THE EAST PACIFIC/BAJA PENINSULA.
AS THE DAY SHIFT NOTED THIS ATMOSPHERIC SET-UP HAS OCCURRED IN
PREVIOUS EL NINO YEARS /CUTOFF LOWS IN THIS EL NINO REGION HAVE SPUN
UP INCREDIBLY FAST DUE TO THE PHASING OF A SUBTROPICAL JETSTREAM/
RESULTING IN EVENTUAL PRECIP ACTIVITY DOWNSTREAM OVER THE SOUTHWEST
DESERTS. DETERMINISTIC MODEL RUNS ARE BROADLY AGREEING ON THE IDEA
OF STRONGER AND DEEPER PACIFIC TROUGH SWEEPING INTO SOUTHERN WEST
COAST TOWARDS THE LATTER PART OF NEXT WEEK AND MODTREND GUIDANCE
FROM THE GFS POINTS TO SOME PERSISTENT WEAKENING OF 500MB HEIGHTS
OVER THE CENTRAL PACIFIC UPSTREAM BY THU-FRI NEXT WEEK. WE ARE JUST
OUTSIDE THE WINDOW OF GETTING IVT/AR GUIDANCE BUT BROAD MODEL
AGREEMENT ON THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN NEVER HURTS TO SEE THIS FAR OUT.

&&

.AVIATION...
SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA INCLUDING KPHX...KIWA...AND KSDL...

HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE INTERIOR WEST CENTERED NORTH OF ARIZONA WILL
ACT TO KEEP WINDS FROM AN EASTERLY DIRECTION AT ALL OF THE PHX AREA
TERMINALS THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. WIND SPEED WILL REMAIN MAINLY AOB
8 KTS...EXCEPT FOR A PERIOD OF TIME DURING THE LATE MORNING-EARLY
AFTERNOON HOURS TODAY WHEN STRONGER WINDS ALOFT MIXING DOWN TO THE
SFC INCREASES SPEEDS A BIT...UP INTO THE 10-14KT RANGE AT KPHX.
NOTE: GUIDANCE SUGGESTS A SHALLOW LAYER OF ELEVATED EAST WINDS JUST
ABOVE THE SURFACE THIS MORNING...SUFFICIENT TO LEAD TO MODEST LLWS
AND AS SUCH THIS HAS BEEN ADDED TO THE TAFS INCLUDING THE KPHX
TAF. SKIES TO REMAIN CLEAR THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.

SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA/SOUTHWEST ARIZONA INCLUDING KIPL AND KBLH...

NORTHERLY BREEZES AT KBLH TO GRADUALLY DIMINISH THIS MORNING AS THE
SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENTS WEAKEN OVER THE REGION WITH WINDS
BECOMING LIGHT/VARIABLE BY THIS AFTERNOON. WINDS AT KIPL TO REMAIN
ON THE LIGHT SIDE...MAINLY AOB 8 KTS...FOLLOWING TYPICAL DIURNAL
TRENDS. SKIES TO REMAIN MAINLY CLEAR NEXT 24 HOURS WITH SOME PATCHY
CIRRUS CLOUD LAYERS PASSING OVER THE TERMINALS DURING THE DAY
TODAY.

AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDED TAFS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY... AN UNSEASONABLY STRONG HIGH PRESSURE
RIDGE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE OVER THE WESTERN STATES THIS WEEK AND
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. THIS WILL LEAD TO A PERSISTENT PERIOD OF WELL
ABOVE NORMALS HIGH TEMPERATURES...WITH READINGS PEAKING 10 TO 15
DEGREES ABOVE SEASONAL NORMALS. MANY LOWER ELEVATION AND DESERT
SITES WILL SEE A STRETCH OF DAYS WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES WARMING PAST
THE 80 DEGREE MARK. RH`S WILL ALSO REMAIN ON THE DRIER AND BELOW
NORMAL SIDE DURING THE WEEK WITH MIN VALUES TYPICALLY IN THE LOW TO
MIDDLE TEENS.

LIGHT WINDS ARE EXPECTED THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...AND WILL
GENERALLY FOLLOW TYPICAL DRAINAGE/SLOPE DRIVEN HEADINGS WITH LIGHT
SPEEDS. INCREASED NORTHERLY BREEZES ARE EXPECTED OVER THE WESTERN
DESERTS...ESPECIALLY ALONG THE LOWER COLORADO RIVER VALLEY...SUNDAY
INTO MONDAY. SUNNY DAYS AND CLEAR NIGHTS WILL BE REPLACED BY
VARIABLE HIGH CLOUDINESS STARTING FRIDAY AND CONTINUING THROUGH THE
WEEKEND.

&&

.CLIMATE...
                   PHOENIX         |        YUMA
             FCST | RECORD (YEAR)  | FCST | RECORD (YEAR)

TUE FEB 9      84 | 84 (1987)      |   84 | 90 (2015)
WED FEB 10     84 | 87 (1951)      |   84 | 93 (1951)
THU FEB 11     85 | 83 (1951)      |   85 | 86 (1971)
FRI FEB 12     86 | 84 (1988)      |   85 | 87 (1957)
SAT FEB 13     86 | 88 (1957)      |   85 | 93 (1957)
SUN FEB 14     83 | 85 (2014)      |   83 | 94 (1957)

&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT BASED ON STANDARD OPERATING
PROCEDURES.

&&

.PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AZ...NONE.
CA...NONE.
&&

$$

VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/PHOENIX

DISCUSSION...NOLTE
AVIATION...PERCHA/CB
FIRE WEATHER...NOLTE/CB
CLIMATE...NOLTE



000
FXUS65 KPSR 091024
AFDPSR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PHOENIX AZ
324 AM MST TUE FEB 9 2016


.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN THE DOMINANT WEATHER FEATURE OVER THE
SOUTHWESTERN UNITED STATES THIS WEEK. THIS WILL RESULT IN A PROLONGED
PERIOD OF SUNNY SKIES...ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES... RELATIVELY LIGHT
WINDS...AND LOW HUMIDITY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
OUR FIRST OCCURRENCE OF 80F-PLUS IN PHOENIX DID NOT DISAPPOINT
YESTERDAY...WARMING ALL THE WAY UP TO 85F AND ONE DEGREE SHY OF THE
RECORD FOR THE CALENDAR DAY. OTHER SITES AROUND THE AREA WERE
EQUIVALENTLY WARM...YUMA...EL CENTRO AND PARKER AT 83F AND LOWER 80S
FOR NEARLY ALL ACROSS THE LOWER DESERTS. NO SURPRISE THAT GIVEN THE
WARM AFTERNOON AND OVERNIGHT BREEZES TEMPERATURES ARE STILL RUNNING
ON THE WARM SIDE AND 2 TO 4 DEGREES HIGHER THAN THIS TIME MONDAY AM.
CONUS WATER VAPOR IMAGERY OVERNIGHT SHOWS TROUGHING OVER THE
EAST...HIGH AMPLITUDE RIDGING OVER THE WEST COAST AND A SLOW EXITING
UL LOW TO OUR SOUTH OVER BAJA SUR/SONORA/SINALOA. SFC HIGH PRESSURE
NORTH OF THE FOUR CORNERS AND SUBSIDENT NORTHERLY FLOW ALOFT ARE
STILL SET-UP TO PROMOTE NORTHEASTERLY BREEZES ACROSS SOUTH-CENTRAL AZ
AND NORTHERLY BREEZES FOR THE CO RIVER VALLEY.

UNSEASONABLY STRONG RIDGING WILL PERSIST OVER THE WEST FOR THE REST
OF THE WEEK. 1000-500MB THICKNESSES ARE FORECAST TO PEAK FRIDAY
AFTERNOON...WHICH COULD BE OUR WARMEST DAY OF THE WEEK AS THE RIDGE
AXIS CLEARS TO OUR EAST AND SOME MODEST WAA MOVES INTO THE REGION.
WIDESPREAD LOW TO MID 80 DEGREE READINGS WILL OCCUR FOR MANY LOWER
DESERT SITES...WITH SOME RECORD OR NEAR RECORD VALUES POSSIBLE FOR
BOTH PHOENIX AND YUMA. PLEASE REFERENCE THE UPDATED CLIMATE SECTION
FOR THE FORECAST AND RECORD DETAILS. SWIFT PASSAGE OF THE SOUTHERN
END OF A DRY /FOR US/ PAC NORTHWEST SHORTWAVE MAY SUPPORT A DEGREE OR
TWO OF COOLING FOR SATURDAY AND SUNDAY WITH THE COMBINATION OF
SLIGHTLY LOWER UL HEIGHTS AND SOME HIGH LEVEL CLOUDINESS. RIDGING
QUICKLY REBOUNDS BY EARLY NEXT WEEK AND THE WARMTH AND ABOVE-NORMAL
TEMPERATURES RETURN. HOWEVER...OF CONTINUED INTEREST IS...A SHEARED
PORTION OF THIS PAC NW TROUGH FORMING INTO A CUTOFF LOW OFF THE SAN
DIEGO COAST SUNDAY...DEEPENING SOUTH TO OFFSHORE SOUTHERN BAJA
MONDAY...NEAR THE NORTHERN EDGES OF WARM EL NINO WATERS. THIS AREA
OFFSHORE PRESENTS ALMOST LIKE THE SOUTHERN BRANCH OF A REX
BLOCK...WITH LOWER HEIGHTS/GENERAL WEAKNESS PERSISTING.

PATTERN PREDICTABILITY DROPS OFF AND ENSEMBLE SPREAD INCREASES
TOWARDS THE LATTER END OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD AS SOME TROPICAL
PACIFIC CONVECTION AND JET STREAKING TAKE ADVANTAGE OF THOSE
PERSISTENT LOW HEIGHT ANOMALIES OVER THE EAST PACIFIC/BAJA PENINSULA.
AS THE DAY SHIFT NOTED THIS ATMOSPHERIC SET-UP HAS OCCURRED IN
PREVIOUS EL NINO YEARS /CUTOFF LOWS IN THIS EL NINO REGION HAVE SPUN
UP INCREDIBLY FAST DUE TO THE PHASING OF A SUBTROPICAL JETSTREAM/
RESULTING IN EVENTUAL PRECIP ACTIVITY DOWNSTREAM OVER THE SOUTHWEST
DESERTS. DETERMINISTIC MODEL RUNS ARE BROADLY AGREEING ON THE IDEA
OF STRONGER AND DEEPER PACIFIC TROUGH SWEEPING INTO SOUTHERN WEST
COAST TOWARDS THE LATTER PART OF NEXT WEEK AND MODTREND GUIDANCE
FROM THE GFS POINTS TO SOME PERSISTENT WEAKENING OF 500MB HEIGHTS
OVER THE CENTRAL PACIFIC UPSTREAM BY THU-FRI NEXT WEEK. WE ARE JUST
OUTSIDE THE WINDOW OF GETTING IVT/AR GUIDANCE BUT BROAD MODEL
AGREEMENT ON THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN NEVER HURTS TO SEE THIS FAR OUT.

&&

.AVIATION...
SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA INCLUDING KPHX...KIWA...AND KSDL...

HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE 4-CORNERS REGION TO KEEP WINDS FROM AN
EASTERLY DIRECTION AT ALL OF THE PHX AREA TERMINALS THROUGH THE TAF
PERIOD. WIND SPEED WILL REMAIN MAINLY AOB 8 KTS...EXCEPT FOR A
PERIOD OF TIME DURING THE LATE MORNING-EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS ON
TUESDAY WHEN STRONGER WINDS ALOFT MIXING DOWN TO THE SFC INCREASES
SPEEDS A BIT...UP INTO THE 10-12KT RANGE AT KPHX. SKIES TO REMAIN
CLEAR THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.

SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA/SOUTHWEST ARIZONA INCLUDING KIPL AND KBLH...

NORTHERLY BREEZES AT KBLH TO GRADUALLY DIMINISH LATE TONIGHT AND
EARLY TUESDAY AS SFC PRESSURE GRADIENTS WEAKEN OVER THE
REGION WITH WINDS BECOMING LIGHT/VARIABLE BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON.
WINDS AT KIPL TO REMAIN ON THE LIGHT SIDE...MAINLY AOB 8
KTS...FOLLOWING TYPICAL DIURNAL TRENDS. SKIES TO REMAIN MAINLY CLEAR
THROUGH TONIGHT WITH SOME PATCHY CIRRUS CLOUD LAYERS PASSING OVER
THE TERMINALS DURING THE DAY ON TUESDAY.

AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDED TAFS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...
AN UNSEASONABLY STRONG HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL BUILD OVER THE
WESTERN STATES DURING THE WEEK. THIS WILL LEAD TO A PERSISTENT PERIOD
OF WELL ABOVE NORMALS HIGH TEMPERATURES...WITH READINGS PEAKING 10
TO 15 DEGREES ABOVE SEASONAL NORMALS. MANY LOWER ELEVATION AND DESERT
SITES WILL SEE A STRETCH OF DAYS WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES WARMING PAST
THE 80 DEGREE MARK. RH`S WILL ALSO REMAIN ON THE DRIER AND BELOW
NORMAL SIDE DURING THE WEEK WITH MIN VALUES TYPICALLY IN THE LOW TO
MIDDLE TEENS.

LOCALLY BREEZY CONDITIONS ALONG THE CO RIVER VALLEY ARE EXPECTED
EACH AFTERNOON. MORE NOTICEABLE EASTERLY WINDS WILL FLOW INTO THE
SOUTH-CENTRAL AZ DESERTS...WITH ELEVATED WINDS OVER RIDGETOPS AND
GAPS TO THE NORTH/EAST OF PHOENIX. WINDS ELSEWHERE WILL GENERALLY
FOLLOW TYPICAL DRAINAGE/SLOPE DRIVEN HEADINGS WITH LIGHT SPEEDS. BY
WEEKS END THE UPPER RIDGE WILL BEGIN TO SHIFT TO OUR EAST AS
TROUGHING ALIGNS ITSELF OVER THE WEST COAST AGAIN. SOME VERY SLIGHT
TEMPERATURE COOLING AND INCREASING CLOUDINESS ARE LIKELY OVER THE
WEEKEND.

&&

.CLIMATE...
                   PHOENIX         |        YUMA
             FCST | RECORD (YEAR)  | FCST | RECORD (YEAR)

TUE FEB 9      84 | 84 (1987)      |   84 | 90 (2015)
WED FEB 10     84 | 87 (1951)      |   84 | 93 (1951)
THU FEB 11     85 | 83 (1951)      |   85 | 86 (1971)
FRI FEB 12     86 | 84 (1988)      |   85 | 87 (1957)
SAT FEB 13     86 | 88 (1957)      |   85 | 93 (1957)
SUN FEB 14     83 | 85 (2014)      |   83 | 94 (1957)

&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT BASED ON STANDARD OPERATING
PROCEDURES.

&&

.PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AZ...NONE.
CA...NONE.
&&

$$

VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/PHOENIX

DISCUSSION...NOLTE
AVIATION...PERCHA
FIRE WEATHER...NOLTE/CB
CLIMATE...NOLTE



000
FXUS65 KPSR 091024
AFDPSR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PHOENIX AZ
324 AM MST TUE FEB 9 2016


.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN THE DOMINANT WEATHER FEATURE OVER THE
SOUTHWESTERN UNITED STATES THIS WEEK. THIS WILL RESULT IN A PROLONGED
PERIOD OF SUNNY SKIES...ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES... RELATIVELY LIGHT
WINDS...AND LOW HUMIDITY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
OUR FIRST OCCURRENCE OF 80F-PLUS IN PHOENIX DID NOT DISAPPOINT
YESTERDAY...WARMING ALL THE WAY UP TO 85F AND ONE DEGREE SHY OF THE
RECORD FOR THE CALENDAR DAY. OTHER SITES AROUND THE AREA WERE
EQUIVALENTLY WARM...YUMA...EL CENTRO AND PARKER AT 83F AND LOWER 80S
FOR NEARLY ALL ACROSS THE LOWER DESERTS. NO SURPRISE THAT GIVEN THE
WARM AFTERNOON AND OVERNIGHT BREEZES TEMPERATURES ARE STILL RUNNING
ON THE WARM SIDE AND 2 TO 4 DEGREES HIGHER THAN THIS TIME MONDAY AM.
CONUS WATER VAPOR IMAGERY OVERNIGHT SHOWS TROUGHING OVER THE
EAST...HIGH AMPLITUDE RIDGING OVER THE WEST COAST AND A SLOW EXITING
UL LOW TO OUR SOUTH OVER BAJA SUR/SONORA/SINALOA. SFC HIGH PRESSURE
NORTH OF THE FOUR CORNERS AND SUBSIDENT NORTHERLY FLOW ALOFT ARE
STILL SET-UP TO PROMOTE NORTHEASTERLY BREEZES ACROSS SOUTH-CENTRAL AZ
AND NORTHERLY BREEZES FOR THE CO RIVER VALLEY.

UNSEASONABLY STRONG RIDGING WILL PERSIST OVER THE WEST FOR THE REST
OF THE WEEK. 1000-500MB THICKNESSES ARE FORECAST TO PEAK FRIDAY
AFTERNOON...WHICH COULD BE OUR WARMEST DAY OF THE WEEK AS THE RIDGE
AXIS CLEARS TO OUR EAST AND SOME MODEST WAA MOVES INTO THE REGION.
WIDESPREAD LOW TO MID 80 DEGREE READINGS WILL OCCUR FOR MANY LOWER
DESERT SITES...WITH SOME RECORD OR NEAR RECORD VALUES POSSIBLE FOR
BOTH PHOENIX AND YUMA. PLEASE REFERENCE THE UPDATED CLIMATE SECTION
FOR THE FORECAST AND RECORD DETAILS. SWIFT PASSAGE OF THE SOUTHERN
END OF A DRY /FOR US/ PAC NORTHWEST SHORTWAVE MAY SUPPORT A DEGREE OR
TWO OF COOLING FOR SATURDAY AND SUNDAY WITH THE COMBINATION OF
SLIGHTLY LOWER UL HEIGHTS AND SOME HIGH LEVEL CLOUDINESS. RIDGING
QUICKLY REBOUNDS BY EARLY NEXT WEEK AND THE WARMTH AND ABOVE-NORMAL
TEMPERATURES RETURN. HOWEVER...OF CONTINUED INTEREST IS...A SHEARED
PORTION OF THIS PAC NW TROUGH FORMING INTO A CUTOFF LOW OFF THE SAN
DIEGO COAST SUNDAY...DEEPENING SOUTH TO OFFSHORE SOUTHERN BAJA
MONDAY...NEAR THE NORTHERN EDGES OF WARM EL NINO WATERS. THIS AREA
OFFSHORE PRESENTS ALMOST LIKE THE SOUTHERN BRANCH OF A REX
BLOCK...WITH LOWER HEIGHTS/GENERAL WEAKNESS PERSISTING.

PATTERN PREDICTABILITY DROPS OFF AND ENSEMBLE SPREAD INCREASES
TOWARDS THE LATTER END OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD AS SOME TROPICAL
PACIFIC CONVECTION AND JET STREAKING TAKE ADVANTAGE OF THOSE
PERSISTENT LOW HEIGHT ANOMALIES OVER THE EAST PACIFIC/BAJA PENINSULA.
AS THE DAY SHIFT NOTED THIS ATMOSPHERIC SET-UP HAS OCCURRED IN
PREVIOUS EL NINO YEARS /CUTOFF LOWS IN THIS EL NINO REGION HAVE SPUN
UP INCREDIBLY FAST DUE TO THE PHASING OF A SUBTROPICAL JETSTREAM/
RESULTING IN EVENTUAL PRECIP ACTIVITY DOWNSTREAM OVER THE SOUTHWEST
DESERTS. DETERMINISTIC MODEL RUNS ARE BROADLY AGREEING ON THE IDEA
OF STRONGER AND DEEPER PACIFIC TROUGH SWEEPING INTO SOUTHERN WEST
COAST TOWARDS THE LATTER PART OF NEXT WEEK AND MODTREND GUIDANCE
FROM THE GFS POINTS TO SOME PERSISTENT WEAKENING OF 500MB HEIGHTS
OVER THE CENTRAL PACIFIC UPSTREAM BY THU-FRI NEXT WEEK. WE ARE JUST
OUTSIDE THE WINDOW OF GETTING IVT/AR GUIDANCE BUT BROAD MODEL
AGREEMENT ON THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN NEVER HURTS TO SEE THIS FAR OUT.

&&

.AVIATION...
SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA INCLUDING KPHX...KIWA...AND KSDL...

HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE 4-CORNERS REGION TO KEEP WINDS FROM AN
EASTERLY DIRECTION AT ALL OF THE PHX AREA TERMINALS THROUGH THE TAF
PERIOD. WIND SPEED WILL REMAIN MAINLY AOB 8 KTS...EXCEPT FOR A
PERIOD OF TIME DURING THE LATE MORNING-EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS ON
TUESDAY WHEN STRONGER WINDS ALOFT MIXING DOWN TO THE SFC INCREASES
SPEEDS A BIT...UP INTO THE 10-12KT RANGE AT KPHX. SKIES TO REMAIN
CLEAR THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.

SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA/SOUTHWEST ARIZONA INCLUDING KIPL AND KBLH...

NORTHERLY BREEZES AT KBLH TO GRADUALLY DIMINISH LATE TONIGHT AND
EARLY TUESDAY AS SFC PRESSURE GRADIENTS WEAKEN OVER THE
REGION WITH WINDS BECOMING LIGHT/VARIABLE BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON.
WINDS AT KIPL TO REMAIN ON THE LIGHT SIDE...MAINLY AOB 8
KTS...FOLLOWING TYPICAL DIURNAL TRENDS. SKIES TO REMAIN MAINLY CLEAR
THROUGH TONIGHT WITH SOME PATCHY CIRRUS CLOUD LAYERS PASSING OVER
THE TERMINALS DURING THE DAY ON TUESDAY.

AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDED TAFS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...
AN UNSEASONABLY STRONG HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL BUILD OVER THE
WESTERN STATES DURING THE WEEK. THIS WILL LEAD TO A PERSISTENT PERIOD
OF WELL ABOVE NORMALS HIGH TEMPERATURES...WITH READINGS PEAKING 10
TO 15 DEGREES ABOVE SEASONAL NORMALS. MANY LOWER ELEVATION AND DESERT
SITES WILL SEE A STRETCH OF DAYS WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES WARMING PAST
THE 80 DEGREE MARK. RH`S WILL ALSO REMAIN ON THE DRIER AND BELOW
NORMAL SIDE DURING THE WEEK WITH MIN VALUES TYPICALLY IN THE LOW TO
MIDDLE TEENS.

LOCALLY BREEZY CONDITIONS ALONG THE CO RIVER VALLEY ARE EXPECTED
EACH AFTERNOON. MORE NOTICEABLE EASTERLY WINDS WILL FLOW INTO THE
SOUTH-CENTRAL AZ DESERTS...WITH ELEVATED WINDS OVER RIDGETOPS AND
GAPS TO THE NORTH/EAST OF PHOENIX. WINDS ELSEWHERE WILL GENERALLY
FOLLOW TYPICAL DRAINAGE/SLOPE DRIVEN HEADINGS WITH LIGHT SPEEDS. BY
WEEKS END THE UPPER RIDGE WILL BEGIN TO SHIFT TO OUR EAST AS
TROUGHING ALIGNS ITSELF OVER THE WEST COAST AGAIN. SOME VERY SLIGHT
TEMPERATURE COOLING AND INCREASING CLOUDINESS ARE LIKELY OVER THE
WEEKEND.

&&

.CLIMATE...
                   PHOENIX         |        YUMA
             FCST | RECORD (YEAR)  | FCST | RECORD (YEAR)

TUE FEB 9      84 | 84 (1987)      |   84 | 90 (2015)
WED FEB 10     84 | 87 (1951)      |   84 | 93 (1951)
THU FEB 11     85 | 83 (1951)      |   85 | 86 (1971)
FRI FEB 12     86 | 84 (1988)      |   85 | 87 (1957)
SAT FEB 13     86 | 88 (1957)      |   85 | 93 (1957)
SUN FEB 14     83 | 85 (2014)      |   83 | 94 (1957)

&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT BASED ON STANDARD OPERATING
PROCEDURES.

&&

.PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AZ...NONE.
CA...NONE.
&&

$$

VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/PHOENIX

DISCUSSION...NOLTE
AVIATION...PERCHA
FIRE WEATHER...NOLTE/CB
CLIMATE...NOLTE




000
FXUS65 KTWC 090950
AFDTWC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ
250 AM MST TUE FEB 9 2016

.SYNOPSIS...STRONG HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT OVER THE WESTERN STATES WILL
PROVIDE DRY CONDITIONS WITH WELL ABOVE NORMAL DAYTIME TEMPERATURES
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...THE 09/00Z GFS/ECMWF/CMC AND RESPECTIVE ENSEMBLES WERE
VERY SIMILAR WITH THE DEPICTION OF A HIGHLY AMPLIFIED UPPER RIDGE
OVER THE WESTERN CONUS THRU FRI. EXPECT CLEAR SKIES THRU TONIGHT
FOLLOWED BY SOME CIRRIFORM CLOUDS FOR MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES WED INTO
THUR NIGHT. CLEAR SKIES SHOULD RETURN FRI. THE UPPER RIDGE WILL
FLATTEN SAT AND THEN BECOME ESTABLISHED NEAR THE WEST COAST SUN-MON
AS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES FROM THE PACIFIC NW EWD INTO THE GREAT
LAKES REGION.

THE 09/00Z GFS/ECMWF DETERMINISTIC SOLUTIONS WERE ALSO QUITE SIMILAR
WITH DEPICTING A DETACHED WEAK UPPER LOW WELL WEST OF THE BAJA
CALIFORNIA SPUR EARLY NEXT WEEK...GENERALLY NEAR 20N/130W OR EVEN
FURTHER WESTWARD. THESE SOLUTIONS NEGATE THE POSSIBILITY OF A CLOSED
UPPER LOW OVER THE SWRN CONUS EARLY NEXT WEEK VERSUS SOME PREVIOUS
DETERMINISTIC RUNS. THUS...DRY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE SAT-MON.
ALTHOUGH BEYOND THE SCOPE OF THIS FORECAST PACKAGE...HAVE NOTED THAT
THE 09/00Z GFS/ECMWF MAINTAINED PRECIP-FREE CONDITIONS ACROSS SE
ARIZONA NEXT TUE INTO WED NIGHT FOLLOWED BY THE FIRST OCCURRENCE OF
MEASURABLE PRECIP THUR (FEB 18).

HIGH TEMPS TODAY WILL GENERALLY BE WITHIN A DEGREE-OR-TWO OF TEMPS
ACHIEVED MON...AND WILL AVERAGE ABOUT 10-15 DEGS ABOVE NORMAL.
EXPECT A DEGREE-OR-SO OF DAILY WARMING WED-FRI FOLLOWED BY VIRTUALLY
NO CHANGE IN DAYTIME TEMPS SAT. A FEW DEGS OF COOLING IS FORECAST TO
OCCUR SUN FOLLOWED BY NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE IN HIGH TEMPS NEXT MON.

&&

.AVIATION...VALID THRU 10/12Z.
SKC THROUGH TONIGHT. SFC WIND WILL MAINTAIN A SELY TO NELY DIRECTION
AT 5-15 KTS WITH AFTERNOON GUSTS UP TO 20 KTS MAINLY 09/15Z THROUGH
09/21Z. AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR TAF AMENDMENTS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...HIGH PRESSURE WILL MAINTAIN THE DRY CONDITIONS AND
WELL ABOVE AVERAGE HIGH TEMPERATURES THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND. RH LEVELS
WILL ALSO BE LOWER THAN NORMAL THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND WITH AFTERNOON
MINIMUMS RANGING FROM 9-18 PERCENT ACROSS LOWER ELEVATIONS AND IN
THE 20S OVER THE MOUNTAINS. OVERNIGHT RECOVERIES IN THE VALLEYS WILL
BE SOMEWHAT LACKING AND RANGING FROM 35-45% IN ZONE 150 AND WESTERN
151 TO 45-60% ELSEWHERE. LOCALLY GUSTY EAST WINDS WILL CONTINUE
TODAY AND WEDNESDAY WITH THE PEAK WIND SPEEDS ACROSS THE VALLEYS
OCCURRING FROM THE MID MORNING TO EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS. GUSTY WINDS
ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN WILL GENERALLY PEAK LATE NIGHT AND EARLY
MORNING HOURS. LIGHTER WINDS ARE EXPECTED THURSDAY ONWARD.

&&

.TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...YOUTUBE...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/TUCSON

DISCUSSION...FRANCIS
AVIATION/FIRE WEATHER...CERNIGLIA




000
FXUS65 KFGZ 090948
AFDFGZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ
230 AM MST TUE FEB 9 2016

.SYNOPSIS...STRONG HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE WESTERN STATES
THROUGH THIS WEEKEND. LOOK FOR CLEAR SKIES AND WARM WEATHER ACROSS
NORTHERN ARIZONA. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE 10 TO 15 DEGREES ABOVE
NORMAL THROUGH AT LEAST SATURDAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION... THE RIDGE OF STEEL TO REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS THE
WESTERN U.S. THROUGH SATURDAY. EXPECT DRY WEATHER AND MILD, SPRING-
LIKE MAX TEMPERATURES ACROSS NORTHERN ARIZONA.

THE PERSISTENT NE SFC WINDS ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE MOGOLLON RIM WILL
BE DECREASING WITH TIME THROUGH TODAY...WITH LIGHT WINDS THEN
FORECAST FOR THE REST OF THE WEEK. PROGS BRING A DRY COLD FRONT
THROUGH THE FOUR CORNERS AREA ON SUNDAY. ITS MAIN IMPACT WILL BE TO
BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF NE SFC WINDS TO THE AREA.

&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 12Z PACKAGE...EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS UNDER CLEAR
SKIES FOR THE 24 HOUR PERIOD. SFC WINDS CONTINUE LIGHT AND VARIABLE
OR NORTHEAST 5-10KTS MOST AREAS. HIGHER TERRAIN ALONG AND JUST SW OF
THE MOGOLLON RIM AND BRADSHAW MTNS WILL SEE NE WINDS FROM 10-15KTS
WITH LOCALIZED GUSTS TO 30KTS. AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR
TAF AMENDMENTS.

&&

.FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC...DL
AVIATION...PETERSON

FOR NORTHERN ARIZONA WEATHER INFORMATION VISIT
WEATHER.GOV/FLAGSTAFF




000
FXUS65 KPSR 090533 AAA
AFDPSR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PHOENIX AZ
1035 PM MST MON FEB 8 2016

.UPDATE... UPDATED AVIATION SECTION.

.SYNOPSIS...HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN THE DOMINANT WEATHER FEATURE
OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN UNITED STATES THIS WEEK. THIS WILL RESULT IN A
PROLONGED PERIOD OF SUNNY SKIES...ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES...
RELATIVELY LIGHT WINDS...AND LOW HUMIDITY.

&&

.DISCUSSION... A VERY MILD EVENING (FOR EARLY FEB) IS BEING OBSERVED
ACROSS THE REGION...WITH MANY OF THE WARMER LOWER DESERT LOCATIONS
STILL IN THE 70S AT THIS HOUR. VERY STRONG RIDGING ALOFT...WITH
500MB HEIGHTS AOA 584DM...COMBINED WITH LOW-LEVEL DOWNSLOPE
NORTHEASTERLY FLOW HELPED TO PUSH TEMPERATURES THIS AFTERNOON WELL
UP INTO THE 80S AT MANY LOWER DESERT SPOTS ACROSS OUR CWA...WITH
PHOENIX SKY HARBOR REACHING 85F...JUST A DEGREE SHY OF THE RECORD
FOR THE DATE. THE LATEST NAM AND 18Z GFS CONTINUE TO INDICATE THAT
THIS VERY WARM WEATHER WILL LAST THROUGH AT LEAST THE REST OF THE
WEEK...WITH LITTLE DAY-TO-DAY CHANGE IN TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE
PERIOD...UNDER MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES. FOR THE REST OF TONIGHT...OTHER
THAN SOME VERY MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO THE HOURLY GRIDS...CURRENT
FORECASTS ARE LOOKING QUITE GOOD...NO UPDATES ARE PLANNED.

&&

.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...

THROUGH FRIDAY...

AN ANOMALOUSLY STRONG HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM BUILT OVER THE REGION
LAST NIGHT AND WILL REMAIN STATIONARY THIS WEEK. TEMPERATURES ON THE
LOWER DESERTS WILL WARM INTO THE 80S.  HOWEVER...A DEVELOPING
SUBTROPICAL LIKE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK WELL
SOUTH OF AZ...MOVING EAST ACROSS CENTRAL BAJA TODAY INTO NORTH
CENTRAL MEXICO SOUTH OF EL PASO ON TUE.  A RESULTING NORTH/SOUTH
PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL CONTINUE THE NORTH/NORTHEAST BREEZES ACROSS
THE REGION...PARTICULARLY DOWN THE COLORADO RIVER VALLEY THE
REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. LIGHTER WINDS ARE FORECAST
ON TUESDAY.


THIS WEEKEND...

AGAIN...STEADY STATE UNSEASONABLY WARM AFTERNOONS...IN THE 80S OVER
THE LOWER DESERTS...WILL CONTINUE INTO THE WEEKEND. HOWEVER...THE
HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BREAK DOWN SATURDAY AS A MUCH WEAKENED
PACIFIC DISTURBANCE IS FORECAST TO MOVE ACROSS NORTHERN AZ. OF MUCH
GREATER INTEREST...IS A SHEARED PORTION OF THIS PACIFIC SYSTEM
FORMING A CUTOFF LOW OFF THE SAN DIEGO COAST SUNDAY...DEEPENING
SOUTH TO OFFSHORE SOUTHERN BAJA MONDAY...NEAR THE NORTHERN EDGES OF
WARM EL NINO WATERS.  IN COMPARISON...WE REMEMBER DURING THE 1991-
1992 EL NINO EVENT...CUTOFF LOWS IN THIS EL NINO REGION SPUN UP
INCREDIBLY FAST DUE TO THE PHASING OF A SUBTROPICAL JETSTREAM. THIS
RESULTED IN APPRECIABLE RAINS ON THE SOUTHERN AZ DESERTS. PERHAPS
RAIN IS IN THE OFFING NEXT MONDAY AND TUESDAY WHICH IS A LITTLE
BEYOND THIS 7 DAY FORECAST.

&&

.AVIATION...
SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA INCLUDING KPHX...KIWA...AND KSDL...

HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE 4-CORNERS REGION TO KEEP WINDS FROM AN
EASTERLY DIRECTION AT ALL OF THE PHX AREA TERMINALS THROUGH THE TAF
PERIOD. WIND SPEED WILL REMAIN MAINLY AOB 8 KTS...EXCEPT FOR A
PERIOD OF TIME DURING THE LATE MORNING-EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS ON
TUESDAY...WHEN STRONGER WINDS ALOFT MIXING DOWN TO THE SFC INCREASES
SPEEDS A BIT...UP INTO THE 10-12KT RANGE AT KPHX. SKIES TO REMAIN
BASICALLY CLEAR THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.

SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA/SOUTHWEST ARIZONA INCLUDING KIPL AND KBLH...

NORTHERLY BREEZES AT KBLH TO GRADUALLY DIMINISH LATE TONIGHT AND
EARLY TUESDAY...AS SFC PRESSURE GRADIENTS WEAKEN OVER THE
REGION...WITH WINDS BECOMING LIGHT/VARIABLE BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON.
WINDS AT KIPL TO REMAIN ON THE LIGHT SIDE...MAINLY AOB 8
KTS...FOLLOWING TYPICAL DIURNAL TRENDS. SKIES TO REMAIN MAINLY CLEAR
THROUGH TONIGHT...WITH SOME PATCHY CIRRUS CLOUD LAYERS PASSING OVER
THE TERMINALS DURING THE DAY ON TUESDAY.

AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDED TAFS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...AN UNSEASONABLY STRONG HIGH PRESSURE
RIDGE WILL BUILD OVER THE WESTERN STATES DURING THE WEEK. THIS WILL
LEAD TO A PERSISTENT PERIOD OF WELL ABOVE NORMALS HIGH TEMPERATURES
...WITH READINGS PEAKING 10 TO 15 DEGREES ABOVE SEASONAL NORMALS.
MANY LOWER ELEVATION AND DESERT SITES WILL SEE A STRETCH OF DAYS
WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES WARMING PAST THE 80 DEGREE MARK. RH`S WILL
ALSO REMAIN ON THE DRIER AND BELOW NORMAL SIDE DURING THE WEEK WITH
MIN VALUES TYPICALLY IN THE LOW TO MIDDLE TEENS.

LOCALLY BREEZY CONDITIONS ALONG THE CO RIVER VALLEY ARE EXPECTED
EACH AFTERNOON. MORE NOTICEABLE EASTERLY WINDS WILL FLOW INTO THE
SOUTH-CENTRAL AZ DESERTS...WITH ELEVATED WINDS OVER RIDGETOPS AND
GAPS TO THE NORTH/EAST OF PHOENIX. WINDS ELSEWHERE WILL GENERALLY
FOLLOW TYPICAL DRAINAGE/SLOPE DRIVEN HEADINGS WITH LIGHT SPEEDS. BY
WEEKS END THE UPPER RIDGE WILL BEGIN TO SHIFT TO OUR EAST AS
TROUGHING ALIGNS ITSELF OVER THE WEST COAST AGAIN. SOME VERY SLIGHT
TEMPERATURE COOLING AND INCREASING CLOUDINESS ARE LIKELY OVER THE
WEEKEND.

&&

.CLIMATE...
                   PHOENIX         |        YUMA
             FCST | RECORD (YEAR)  | FCST | RECORD (YEAR)

MON FEB 8      83 | 86 (1970)      |   81 | 88 (1996)
TUE FEB 9      83 | 84 (1987)      |   83 | 90 (2015)
WED FEB 10     83 | 87 (1951)      |   83 | 93 (1951)
THU FEB 11     83 | 83 (1951)      |   84 | 86 (1971)

&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT BASED ON STANDARD OPERATING
PROCEDURES.

&&

.PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AZ...NONE.
CA...NONE.
&&

$$

VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/PHOENIX

DISCUSSION...PERCHA/VASQUEZ
CLIMATE......NOLTE
AVIATION...PERCHA
FIRE WEATHER...NOLTE/CB




000
FXUS65 KPSR 090533 AAA
AFDPSR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PHOENIX AZ
1035 PM MST MON FEB 8 2016

.UPDATE... UPDATED AVIATION SECTION.

.SYNOPSIS...HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN THE DOMINANT WEATHER FEATURE
OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN UNITED STATES THIS WEEK. THIS WILL RESULT IN A
PROLONGED PERIOD OF SUNNY SKIES...ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES...
RELATIVELY LIGHT WINDS...AND LOW HUMIDITY.

&&

.DISCUSSION... A VERY MILD EVENING (FOR EARLY FEB) IS BEING OBSERVED
ACROSS THE REGION...WITH MANY OF THE WARMER LOWER DESERT LOCATIONS
STILL IN THE 70S AT THIS HOUR. VERY STRONG RIDGING ALOFT...WITH
500MB HEIGHTS AOA 584DM...COMBINED WITH LOW-LEVEL DOWNSLOPE
NORTHEASTERLY FLOW HELPED TO PUSH TEMPERATURES THIS AFTERNOON WELL
UP INTO THE 80S AT MANY LOWER DESERT SPOTS ACROSS OUR CWA...WITH
PHOENIX SKY HARBOR REACHING 85F...JUST A DEGREE SHY OF THE RECORD
FOR THE DATE. THE LATEST NAM AND 18Z GFS CONTINUE TO INDICATE THAT
THIS VERY WARM WEATHER WILL LAST THROUGH AT LEAST THE REST OF THE
WEEK...WITH LITTLE DAY-TO-DAY CHANGE IN TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE
PERIOD...UNDER MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES. FOR THE REST OF TONIGHT...OTHER
THAN SOME VERY MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO THE HOURLY GRIDS...CURRENT
FORECASTS ARE LOOKING QUITE GOOD...NO UPDATES ARE PLANNED.

&&

.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...

THROUGH FRIDAY...

AN ANOMALOUSLY STRONG HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM BUILT OVER THE REGION
LAST NIGHT AND WILL REMAIN STATIONARY THIS WEEK. TEMPERATURES ON THE
LOWER DESERTS WILL WARM INTO THE 80S.  HOWEVER...A DEVELOPING
SUBTROPICAL LIKE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK WELL
SOUTH OF AZ...MOVING EAST ACROSS CENTRAL BAJA TODAY INTO NORTH
CENTRAL MEXICO SOUTH OF EL PASO ON TUE.  A RESULTING NORTH/SOUTH
PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL CONTINUE THE NORTH/NORTHEAST BREEZES ACROSS
THE REGION...PARTICULARLY DOWN THE COLORADO RIVER VALLEY THE
REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. LIGHTER WINDS ARE FORECAST
ON TUESDAY.


THIS WEEKEND...

AGAIN...STEADY STATE UNSEASONABLY WARM AFTERNOONS...IN THE 80S OVER
THE LOWER DESERTS...WILL CONTINUE INTO THE WEEKEND. HOWEVER...THE
HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BREAK DOWN SATURDAY AS A MUCH WEAKENED
PACIFIC DISTURBANCE IS FORECAST TO MOVE ACROSS NORTHERN AZ. OF MUCH
GREATER INTEREST...IS A SHEARED PORTION OF THIS PACIFIC SYSTEM
FORMING A CUTOFF LOW OFF THE SAN DIEGO COAST SUNDAY...DEEPENING
SOUTH TO OFFSHORE SOUTHERN BAJA MONDAY...NEAR THE NORTHERN EDGES OF
WARM EL NINO WATERS.  IN COMPARISON...WE REMEMBER DURING THE 1991-
1992 EL NINO EVENT...CUTOFF LOWS IN THIS EL NINO REGION SPUN UP
INCREDIBLY FAST DUE TO THE PHASING OF A SUBTROPICAL JETSTREAM. THIS
RESULTED IN APPRECIABLE RAINS ON THE SOUTHERN AZ DESERTS. PERHAPS
RAIN IS IN THE OFFING NEXT MONDAY AND TUESDAY WHICH IS A LITTLE
BEYOND THIS 7 DAY FORECAST.

&&

.AVIATION...
SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA INCLUDING KPHX...KIWA...AND KSDL...

HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE 4-CORNERS REGION TO KEEP WINDS FROM AN
EASTERLY DIRECTION AT ALL OF THE PHX AREA TERMINALS THROUGH THE TAF
PERIOD. WIND SPEED WILL REMAIN MAINLY AOB 8 KTS...EXCEPT FOR A
PERIOD OF TIME DURING THE LATE MORNING-EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS ON
TUESDAY...WHEN STRONGER WINDS ALOFT MIXING DOWN TO THE SFC INCREASES
SPEEDS A BIT...UP INTO THE 10-12KT RANGE AT KPHX. SKIES TO REMAIN
BASICALLY CLEAR THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.

SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA/SOUTHWEST ARIZONA INCLUDING KIPL AND KBLH...

NORTHERLY BREEZES AT KBLH TO GRADUALLY DIMINISH LATE TONIGHT AND
EARLY TUESDAY...AS SFC PRESSURE GRADIENTS WEAKEN OVER THE
REGION...WITH WINDS BECOMING LIGHT/VARIABLE BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON.
WINDS AT KIPL TO REMAIN ON THE LIGHT SIDE...MAINLY AOB 8
KTS...FOLLOWING TYPICAL DIURNAL TRENDS. SKIES TO REMAIN MAINLY CLEAR
THROUGH TONIGHT...WITH SOME PATCHY CIRRUS CLOUD LAYERS PASSING OVER
THE TERMINALS DURING THE DAY ON TUESDAY.

AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDED TAFS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...AN UNSEASONABLY STRONG HIGH PRESSURE
RIDGE WILL BUILD OVER THE WESTERN STATES DURING THE WEEK. THIS WILL
LEAD TO A PERSISTENT PERIOD OF WELL ABOVE NORMALS HIGH TEMPERATURES
...WITH READINGS PEAKING 10 TO 15 DEGREES ABOVE SEASONAL NORMALS.
MANY LOWER ELEVATION AND DESERT SITES WILL SEE A STRETCH OF DAYS
WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES WARMING PAST THE 80 DEGREE MARK. RH`S WILL
ALSO REMAIN ON THE DRIER AND BELOW NORMAL SIDE DURING THE WEEK WITH
MIN VALUES TYPICALLY IN THE LOW TO MIDDLE TEENS.

LOCALLY BREEZY CONDITIONS ALONG THE CO RIVER VALLEY ARE EXPECTED
EACH AFTERNOON. MORE NOTICEABLE EASTERLY WINDS WILL FLOW INTO THE
SOUTH-CENTRAL AZ DESERTS...WITH ELEVATED WINDS OVER RIDGETOPS AND
GAPS TO THE NORTH/EAST OF PHOENIX. WINDS ELSEWHERE WILL GENERALLY
FOLLOW TYPICAL DRAINAGE/SLOPE DRIVEN HEADINGS WITH LIGHT SPEEDS. BY
WEEKS END THE UPPER RIDGE WILL BEGIN TO SHIFT TO OUR EAST AS
TROUGHING ALIGNS ITSELF OVER THE WEST COAST AGAIN. SOME VERY SLIGHT
TEMPERATURE COOLING AND INCREASING CLOUDINESS ARE LIKELY OVER THE
WEEKEND.

&&

.CLIMATE...
                   PHOENIX         |        YUMA
             FCST | RECORD (YEAR)  | FCST | RECORD (YEAR)

MON FEB 8      83 | 86 (1970)      |   81 | 88 (1996)
TUE FEB 9      83 | 84 (1987)      |   83 | 90 (2015)
WED FEB 10     83 | 87 (1951)      |   83 | 93 (1951)
THU FEB 11     83 | 83 (1951)      |   84 | 86 (1971)

&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT BASED ON STANDARD OPERATING
PROCEDURES.

&&

.PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AZ...NONE.
CA...NONE.
&&

$$

VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/PHOENIX

DISCUSSION...PERCHA/VASQUEZ
CLIMATE......NOLTE
AVIATION...PERCHA
FIRE WEATHER...NOLTE/CB



000
FXUS65 KTWC 090405
AFDTWC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ
905 PM MST MON FEB 8 2016

.SYNOPSIS...DRY AND MUCH WARMER THIS WEEK WITH AFTERNOON HIGHS WELL
ABOVE AVERAGE FOR FEBRUARY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND 09/00Z UPPER-AIR PLOTS SHOW A
HIGHLY AMPLIFIED TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE NATION AND A
RIDGE OVER THE WEST. MEANWHILE...A WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM RESIDES
OVER THE GENERAL VICINITY OF SOUTH CENTRAL BAJA. EXTENSIVE
CLOUDINESS COVERS A LARGE PART OF SONORA AND CHIHUAHUA MEXICO AND
AREAS FARTHER SOUTH. THE NORTHERN FRINGES OF THESE MOSTLY THIN HIGH
CLOUDS ARE JUST SOUTH OF THE ARIZONA AND NEW MEXICO BORDER WITH
SKIES GENERALLY CLEAR ACROSS ALL OF ARIZONA.

AS OF 04Z (9 PM MST)...TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE REGION RANGED FROM
THE LOWER 50S TO THE MID 60S...WITH THE TUCSON INTL AIRPORT
REPORTING A TEMP OF 64 DEGS AFTER ACHIEVING AN AFTERNOON HIGH OF 81
DEGS...WHICH TIED THE RECORD FOR THIS DATE. THE OLD RECORD WAS SET
BACK IN 2006. IN ADDITION...TODAYS HIGH WAS 13 DEGS ABOVE NORMAL FOR
THIS DATE.

THE CURRENT TEMP READINGS SEEM TO BE RIGHT ON TRACK WITH THE
INHERITED OVERNIGHT LOWS...SO NO CHANGES ARE PLANNED AT THIS
TIME...BUT WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR THROUGH THE EVENING AND WILL
MAKE ADJUSTMENTS IF WARRANTED.

SEE PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOR DETAILS BEYOND TONIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION...VALID THRU 10/06Z.
VFR WITH SCT CIRRUS AOA 25K FT AGL. SFC WIND WILL MAINTAIN A SELY TO
NELY DIRECTION AT 5-15 KTS WITH AFTERNOON GUSTS UP TO 20 KTS.
AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR TAF AMENDMENTS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING DRY CONDITIONS WITH WELL
ABOVE AVERAGE HIGH TEMPERATURES THIS WEEK. EASTERLY 20-FT WINDS WILL
ALSO CONTINUE...WITH SPEEDS OF 10 TO 15 MPH AND OCCASIONAL AFTERNOON
GUSTINESS TO AROUND 25 MPH IN AREAS THAT FAVOR EAST WINDS. ALTHOUGH
RED FLAG CONDITIONS ARE NOT ANTICIPATED...DAYTIME MINIMUM RELATIVE
HUMIDITY VALUES WILL BE IN THE UPPER SINGLE DIGITS AND TEENS INTO
NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...PERSISTENCE IS A POWERFUL FORECAST TOOL. STRONG
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO DOMINATE OUR WEATHER INTO THE COMING
WEEKEND. EXPECT UNSEASONABLE HEIGHT AND THICKNESS VALUES TO BRING
AFTERNOON HIGHS AS MUCH AS 12 TO 15 DEGREES ABOVE AVERAGE. DRY AND
MORE DRY WITH ONLY SOME PATCHES OF CIRRUS ON THE NORTHERN FRINGE OF
A WEAK DISTURBANCE DIRTYING UP THE BASE OF THE RIDGE TO OUR SOUTH.
WITH THIS LARGER SCALE PATTERN THE RIDGE IS GOING TO BE RATHER
STUBBORN FOR SEVERAL DAYS WITH SE AZ ON THE PROTECTED FRONT FLANK OF
THE RIDGE.

AT THE SURFACE WE WILL SEE A PERSISTENT SURFACE HIGH WITH POSITIONS
RANGING FROM THE CENTRAL BASIN TO THE FRONT RANGE OF THE ROCKIES.
WHENEVER WE HAVE A FRONT RANGE POSITION IT CAN ENHANCE AN EASTERLY
RETURN FLOW FROM NEW MEXICO AND LEAD TO BREEZY CONDITIONS AT TIMES.

PATTERN CHANGE IN THE OFFING THE SECOND HALF OF NEXT WEEK. AN AREA
OF CONVECTION TRANSITIONING OUT OF THE CENTRAL PACIFIC IS HINTING AT
A CONSOLIDATION OF A SOUTHERN BRANCH SPLIT WITH GREATER POTENTIAL
FOR WET TRAJECTORY STORMS TO AFFECT SE AZ AFTER THE 17TH. ECMWF
ENSEMBLE MEAN AND SPREAD TRENDS AT 200-240 HOURS CONTINUE TO
REASONABLY SHOW THE RESULTING TRANSITION WITH THE THE GEFS
SUBSEQUENTLY CONTINUING TO SHOW A FAVORABLE CONSOLIDATION OF THE
500MB 5760M ISOBAR INTO A TROUGH AND THEN ZONAL CONFIGURATION AT 240-
312 HOURS. THIS WOULD SUGGEST CONTINUED VULNERABILITY TO STORMS OFF
THE EASTERN PACIFIC AFTER AN INITIAL TRANSITION STORM THE SECOND
HALF OF NEXT WEEK. THE GFS IS EVEN SUGGESTING A SUBTROPICAL
INFLUENCE INTO THE TRANSITION STORM...BUT AT THIS POINT IT`S UNCLEAR
IF THAT WILL BE MORE OF AN ISSUE FOR US OR NEW MEXICO. THE POINT IS
THE PATTERN WILL BECOME MORE FAVORABLE FOR STORMS BY LATER NEXT WEEK
WITH A SMALL CHANCE OF WEAK SUBTROPICAL INFLUENCES FROM THE
SOUTHWEST AS EARLY AS TUESDAY. YOUR MILEAGE MAY VARY.

&&

.TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

CURRENT DISCUSSION...MOLLERE
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...MEYER/RASMUSSEN

VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...YOUTUBE...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/TUCSON



000
FXUS65 KTWC 090405
AFDTWC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ
905 PM MST MON FEB 8 2016

.SYNOPSIS...DRY AND MUCH WARMER THIS WEEK WITH AFTERNOON HIGHS WELL
ABOVE AVERAGE FOR FEBRUARY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND 09/00Z UPPER-AIR PLOTS SHOW A
HIGHLY AMPLIFIED TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE NATION AND A
RIDGE OVER THE WEST. MEANWHILE...A WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM RESIDES
OVER THE GENERAL VICINITY OF SOUTH CENTRAL BAJA. EXTENSIVE
CLOUDINESS COVERS A LARGE PART OF SONORA AND CHIHUAHUA MEXICO AND
AREAS FARTHER SOUTH. THE NORTHERN FRINGES OF THESE MOSTLY THIN HIGH
CLOUDS ARE JUST SOUTH OF THE ARIZONA AND NEW MEXICO BORDER WITH
SKIES GENERALLY CLEAR ACROSS ALL OF ARIZONA.

AS OF 04Z (9 PM MST)...TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE REGION RANGED FROM
THE LOWER 50S TO THE MID 60S...WITH THE TUCSON INTL AIRPORT
REPORTING A TEMP OF 64 DEGS AFTER ACHIEVING AN AFTERNOON HIGH OF 81
DEGS...WHICH TIED THE RECORD FOR THIS DATE. THE OLD RECORD WAS SET
BACK IN 2006. IN ADDITION...TODAYS HIGH WAS 13 DEGS ABOVE NORMAL FOR
THIS DATE.

THE CURRENT TEMP READINGS SEEM TO BE RIGHT ON TRACK WITH THE
INHERITED OVERNIGHT LOWS...SO NO CHANGES ARE PLANNED AT THIS
TIME...BUT WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR THROUGH THE EVENING AND WILL
MAKE ADJUSTMENTS IF WARRANTED.

SEE PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOR DETAILS BEYOND TONIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION...VALID THRU 10/06Z.
VFR WITH SCT CIRRUS AOA 25K FT AGL. SFC WIND WILL MAINTAIN A SELY TO
NELY DIRECTION AT 5-15 KTS WITH AFTERNOON GUSTS UP TO 20 KTS.
AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR TAF AMENDMENTS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING DRY CONDITIONS WITH WELL
ABOVE AVERAGE HIGH TEMPERATURES THIS WEEK. EASTERLY 20-FT WINDS WILL
ALSO CONTINUE...WITH SPEEDS OF 10 TO 15 MPH AND OCCASIONAL AFTERNOON
GUSTINESS TO AROUND 25 MPH IN AREAS THAT FAVOR EAST WINDS. ALTHOUGH
RED FLAG CONDITIONS ARE NOT ANTICIPATED...DAYTIME MINIMUM RELATIVE
HUMIDITY VALUES WILL BE IN THE UPPER SINGLE DIGITS AND TEENS INTO
NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...PERSISTENCE IS A POWERFUL FORECAST TOOL. STRONG
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO DOMINATE OUR WEATHER INTO THE COMING
WEEKEND. EXPECT UNSEASONABLE HEIGHT AND THICKNESS VALUES TO BRING
AFTERNOON HIGHS AS MUCH AS 12 TO 15 DEGREES ABOVE AVERAGE. DRY AND
MORE DRY WITH ONLY SOME PATCHES OF CIRRUS ON THE NORTHERN FRINGE OF
A WEAK DISTURBANCE DIRTYING UP THE BASE OF THE RIDGE TO OUR SOUTH.
WITH THIS LARGER SCALE PATTERN THE RIDGE IS GOING TO BE RATHER
STUBBORN FOR SEVERAL DAYS WITH SE AZ ON THE PROTECTED FRONT FLANK OF
THE RIDGE.

AT THE SURFACE WE WILL SEE A PERSISTENT SURFACE HIGH WITH POSITIONS
RANGING FROM THE CENTRAL BASIN TO THE FRONT RANGE OF THE ROCKIES.
WHENEVER WE HAVE A FRONT RANGE POSITION IT CAN ENHANCE AN EASTERLY
RETURN FLOW FROM NEW MEXICO AND LEAD TO BREEZY CONDITIONS AT TIMES.

PATTERN CHANGE IN THE OFFING THE SECOND HALF OF NEXT WEEK. AN AREA
OF CONVECTION TRANSITIONING OUT OF THE CENTRAL PACIFIC IS HINTING AT
A CONSOLIDATION OF A SOUTHERN BRANCH SPLIT WITH GREATER POTENTIAL
FOR WET TRAJECTORY STORMS TO AFFECT SE AZ AFTER THE 17TH. ECMWF
ENSEMBLE MEAN AND SPREAD TRENDS AT 200-240 HOURS CONTINUE TO
REASONABLY SHOW THE RESULTING TRANSITION WITH THE THE GEFS
SUBSEQUENTLY CONTINUING TO SHOW A FAVORABLE CONSOLIDATION OF THE
500MB 5760M ISOBAR INTO A TROUGH AND THEN ZONAL CONFIGURATION AT 240-
312 HOURS. THIS WOULD SUGGEST CONTINUED VULNERABILITY TO STORMS OFF
THE EASTERN PACIFIC AFTER AN INITIAL TRANSITION STORM THE SECOND
HALF OF NEXT WEEK. THE GFS IS EVEN SUGGESTING A SUBTROPICAL
INFLUENCE INTO THE TRANSITION STORM...BUT AT THIS POINT IT`S UNCLEAR
IF THAT WILL BE MORE OF AN ISSUE FOR US OR NEW MEXICO. THE POINT IS
THE PATTERN WILL BECOME MORE FAVORABLE FOR STORMS BY LATER NEXT WEEK
WITH A SMALL CHANCE OF WEAK SUBTROPICAL INFLUENCES FROM THE
SOUTHWEST AS EARLY AS TUESDAY. YOUR MILEAGE MAY VARY.

&&

.TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

CURRENT DISCUSSION...MOLLERE
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...MEYER/RASMUSSEN

VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...YOUTUBE...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/TUCSON



000
FXUS65 KTWC 090405
AFDTWC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ
905 PM MST MON FEB 8 2016

.SYNOPSIS...DRY AND MUCH WARMER THIS WEEK WITH AFTERNOON HIGHS WELL
ABOVE AVERAGE FOR FEBRUARY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND 09/00Z UPPER-AIR PLOTS SHOW A
HIGHLY AMPLIFIED TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE NATION AND A
RIDGE OVER THE WEST. MEANWHILE...A WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM RESIDES
OVER THE GENERAL VICINITY OF SOUTH CENTRAL BAJA. EXTENSIVE
CLOUDINESS COVERS A LARGE PART OF SONORA AND CHIHUAHUA MEXICO AND
AREAS FARTHER SOUTH. THE NORTHERN FRINGES OF THESE MOSTLY THIN HIGH
CLOUDS ARE JUST SOUTH OF THE ARIZONA AND NEW MEXICO BORDER WITH
SKIES GENERALLY CLEAR ACROSS ALL OF ARIZONA.

AS OF 04Z (9 PM MST)...TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE REGION RANGED FROM
THE LOWER 50S TO THE MID 60S...WITH THE TUCSON INTL AIRPORT
REPORTING A TEMP OF 64 DEGS AFTER ACHIEVING AN AFTERNOON HIGH OF 81
DEGS...WHICH TIED THE RECORD FOR THIS DATE. THE OLD RECORD WAS SET
BACK IN 2006. IN ADDITION...TODAYS HIGH WAS 13 DEGS ABOVE NORMAL FOR
THIS DATE.

THE CURRENT TEMP READINGS SEEM TO BE RIGHT ON TRACK WITH THE
INHERITED OVERNIGHT LOWS...SO NO CHANGES ARE PLANNED AT THIS
TIME...BUT WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR THROUGH THE EVENING AND WILL
MAKE ADJUSTMENTS IF WARRANTED.

SEE PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOR DETAILS BEYOND TONIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION...VALID THRU 10/06Z.
VFR WITH SCT CIRRUS AOA 25K FT AGL. SFC WIND WILL MAINTAIN A SELY TO
NELY DIRECTION AT 5-15 KTS WITH AFTERNOON GUSTS UP TO 20 KTS.
AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR TAF AMENDMENTS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING DRY CONDITIONS WITH WELL
ABOVE AVERAGE HIGH TEMPERATURES THIS WEEK. EASTERLY 20-FT WINDS WILL
ALSO CONTINUE...WITH SPEEDS OF 10 TO 15 MPH AND OCCASIONAL AFTERNOON
GUSTINESS TO AROUND 25 MPH IN AREAS THAT FAVOR EAST WINDS. ALTHOUGH
RED FLAG CONDITIONS ARE NOT ANTICIPATED...DAYTIME MINIMUM RELATIVE
HUMIDITY VALUES WILL BE IN THE UPPER SINGLE DIGITS AND TEENS INTO
NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...PERSISTENCE IS A POWERFUL FORECAST TOOL. STRONG
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO DOMINATE OUR WEATHER INTO THE COMING
WEEKEND. EXPECT UNSEASONABLE HEIGHT AND THICKNESS VALUES TO BRING
AFTERNOON HIGHS AS MUCH AS 12 TO 15 DEGREES ABOVE AVERAGE. DRY AND
MORE DRY WITH ONLY SOME PATCHES OF CIRRUS ON THE NORTHERN FRINGE OF
A WEAK DISTURBANCE DIRTYING UP THE BASE OF THE RIDGE TO OUR SOUTH.
WITH THIS LARGER SCALE PATTERN THE RIDGE IS GOING TO BE RATHER
STUBBORN FOR SEVERAL DAYS WITH SE AZ ON THE PROTECTED FRONT FLANK OF
THE RIDGE.

AT THE SURFACE WE WILL SEE A PERSISTENT SURFACE HIGH WITH POSITIONS
RANGING FROM THE CENTRAL BASIN TO THE FRONT RANGE OF THE ROCKIES.
WHENEVER WE HAVE A FRONT RANGE POSITION IT CAN ENHANCE AN EASTERLY
RETURN FLOW FROM NEW MEXICO AND LEAD TO BREEZY CONDITIONS AT TIMES.

PATTERN CHANGE IN THE OFFING THE SECOND HALF OF NEXT WEEK. AN AREA
OF CONVECTION TRANSITIONING OUT OF THE CENTRAL PACIFIC IS HINTING AT
A CONSOLIDATION OF A SOUTHERN BRANCH SPLIT WITH GREATER POTENTIAL
FOR WET TRAJECTORY STORMS TO AFFECT SE AZ AFTER THE 17TH. ECMWF
ENSEMBLE MEAN AND SPREAD TRENDS AT 200-240 HOURS CONTINUE TO
REASONABLY SHOW THE RESULTING TRANSITION WITH THE THE GEFS
SUBSEQUENTLY CONTINUING TO SHOW A FAVORABLE CONSOLIDATION OF THE
500MB 5760M ISOBAR INTO A TROUGH AND THEN ZONAL CONFIGURATION AT 240-
312 HOURS. THIS WOULD SUGGEST CONTINUED VULNERABILITY TO STORMS OFF
THE EASTERN PACIFIC AFTER AN INITIAL TRANSITION STORM THE SECOND
HALF OF NEXT WEEK. THE GFS IS EVEN SUGGESTING A SUBTROPICAL
INFLUENCE INTO THE TRANSITION STORM...BUT AT THIS POINT IT`S UNCLEAR
IF THAT WILL BE MORE OF AN ISSUE FOR US OR NEW MEXICO. THE POINT IS
THE PATTERN WILL BECOME MORE FAVORABLE FOR STORMS BY LATER NEXT WEEK
WITH A SMALL CHANCE OF WEAK SUBTROPICAL INFLUENCES FROM THE
SOUTHWEST AS EARLY AS TUESDAY. YOUR MILEAGE MAY VARY.

&&

.TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

CURRENT DISCUSSION...MOLLERE
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...MEYER/RASMUSSEN

VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...YOUTUBE...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/TUCSON



000
FXUS65 KTWC 090405
AFDTWC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ
905 PM MST MON FEB 8 2016

.SYNOPSIS...DRY AND MUCH WARMER THIS WEEK WITH AFTERNOON HIGHS WELL
ABOVE AVERAGE FOR FEBRUARY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND 09/00Z UPPER-AIR PLOTS SHOW A
HIGHLY AMPLIFIED TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE NATION AND A
RIDGE OVER THE WEST. MEANWHILE...A WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM RESIDES
OVER THE GENERAL VICINITY OF SOUTH CENTRAL BAJA. EXTENSIVE
CLOUDINESS COVERS A LARGE PART OF SONORA AND CHIHUAHUA MEXICO AND
AREAS FARTHER SOUTH. THE NORTHERN FRINGES OF THESE MOSTLY THIN HIGH
CLOUDS ARE JUST SOUTH OF THE ARIZONA AND NEW MEXICO BORDER WITH
SKIES GENERALLY CLEAR ACROSS ALL OF ARIZONA.

AS OF 04Z (9 PM MST)...TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE REGION RANGED FROM
THE LOWER 50S TO THE MID 60S...WITH THE TUCSON INTL AIRPORT
REPORTING A TEMP OF 64 DEGS AFTER ACHIEVING AN AFTERNOON HIGH OF 81
DEGS...WHICH TIED THE RECORD FOR THIS DATE. THE OLD RECORD WAS SET
BACK IN 2006. IN ADDITION...TODAYS HIGH WAS 13 DEGS ABOVE NORMAL FOR
THIS DATE.

THE CURRENT TEMP READINGS SEEM TO BE RIGHT ON TRACK WITH THE
INHERITED OVERNIGHT LOWS...SO NO CHANGES ARE PLANNED AT THIS
TIME...BUT WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR THROUGH THE EVENING AND WILL
MAKE ADJUSTMENTS IF WARRANTED.

SEE PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOR DETAILS BEYOND TONIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION...VALID THRU 10/06Z.
VFR WITH SCT CIRRUS AOA 25K FT AGL. SFC WIND WILL MAINTAIN A SELY TO
NELY DIRECTION AT 5-15 KTS WITH AFTERNOON GUSTS UP TO 20 KTS.
AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR TAF AMENDMENTS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING DRY CONDITIONS WITH WELL
ABOVE AVERAGE HIGH TEMPERATURES THIS WEEK. EASTERLY 20-FT WINDS WILL
ALSO CONTINUE...WITH SPEEDS OF 10 TO 15 MPH AND OCCASIONAL AFTERNOON
GUSTINESS TO AROUND 25 MPH IN AREAS THAT FAVOR EAST WINDS. ALTHOUGH
RED FLAG CONDITIONS ARE NOT ANTICIPATED...DAYTIME MINIMUM RELATIVE
HUMIDITY VALUES WILL BE IN THE UPPER SINGLE DIGITS AND TEENS INTO
NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...PERSISTENCE IS A POWERFUL FORECAST TOOL. STRONG
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO DOMINATE OUR WEATHER INTO THE COMING
WEEKEND. EXPECT UNSEASONABLE HEIGHT AND THICKNESS VALUES TO BRING
AFTERNOON HIGHS AS MUCH AS 12 TO 15 DEGREES ABOVE AVERAGE. DRY AND
MORE DRY WITH ONLY SOME PATCHES OF CIRRUS ON THE NORTHERN FRINGE OF
A WEAK DISTURBANCE DIRTYING UP THE BASE OF THE RIDGE TO OUR SOUTH.
WITH THIS LARGER SCALE PATTERN THE RIDGE IS GOING TO BE RATHER
STUBBORN FOR SEVERAL DAYS WITH SE AZ ON THE PROTECTED FRONT FLANK OF
THE RIDGE.

AT THE SURFACE WE WILL SEE A PERSISTENT SURFACE HIGH WITH POSITIONS
RANGING FROM THE CENTRAL BASIN TO THE FRONT RANGE OF THE ROCKIES.
WHENEVER WE HAVE A FRONT RANGE POSITION IT CAN ENHANCE AN EASTERLY
RETURN FLOW FROM NEW MEXICO AND LEAD TO BREEZY CONDITIONS AT TIMES.

PATTERN CHANGE IN THE OFFING THE SECOND HALF OF NEXT WEEK. AN AREA
OF CONVECTION TRANSITIONING OUT OF THE CENTRAL PACIFIC IS HINTING AT
A CONSOLIDATION OF A SOUTHERN BRANCH SPLIT WITH GREATER POTENTIAL
FOR WET TRAJECTORY STORMS TO AFFECT SE AZ AFTER THE 17TH. ECMWF
ENSEMBLE MEAN AND SPREAD TRENDS AT 200-240 HOURS CONTINUE TO
REASONABLY SHOW THE RESULTING TRANSITION WITH THE THE GEFS
SUBSEQUENTLY CONTINUING TO SHOW A FAVORABLE CONSOLIDATION OF THE
500MB 5760M ISOBAR INTO A TROUGH AND THEN ZONAL CONFIGURATION AT 240-
312 HOURS. THIS WOULD SUGGEST CONTINUED VULNERABILITY TO STORMS OFF
THE EASTERN PACIFIC AFTER AN INITIAL TRANSITION STORM THE SECOND
HALF OF NEXT WEEK. THE GFS IS EVEN SUGGESTING A SUBTROPICAL
INFLUENCE INTO THE TRANSITION STORM...BUT AT THIS POINT IT`S UNCLEAR
IF THAT WILL BE MORE OF AN ISSUE FOR US OR NEW MEXICO. THE POINT IS
THE PATTERN WILL BECOME MORE FAVORABLE FOR STORMS BY LATER NEXT WEEK
WITH A SMALL CHANCE OF WEAK SUBTROPICAL INFLUENCES FROM THE
SOUTHWEST AS EARLY AS TUESDAY. YOUR MILEAGE MAY VARY.

&&

.TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

CURRENT DISCUSSION...MOLLERE
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...MEYER/RASMUSSEN

VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...YOUTUBE...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/TUCSON



000
FXUS65 KTWC 090405
AFDTWC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ
905 PM MST MON FEB 8 2016

.SYNOPSIS...DRY AND MUCH WARMER THIS WEEK WITH AFTERNOON HIGHS WELL
ABOVE AVERAGE FOR FEBRUARY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND 09/00Z UPPER-AIR PLOTS SHOW A
HIGHLY AMPLIFIED TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE NATION AND A
RIDGE OVER THE WEST. MEANWHILE...A WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM RESIDES
OVER THE GENERAL VICINITY OF SOUTH CENTRAL BAJA. EXTENSIVE
CLOUDINESS COVERS A LARGE PART OF SONORA AND CHIHUAHUA MEXICO AND
AREAS FARTHER SOUTH. THE NORTHERN FRINGES OF THESE MOSTLY THIN HIGH
CLOUDS ARE JUST SOUTH OF THE ARIZONA AND NEW MEXICO BORDER WITH
SKIES GENERALLY CLEAR ACROSS ALL OF ARIZONA.

AS OF 04Z (9 PM MST)...TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE REGION RANGED FROM
THE LOWER 50S TO THE MID 60S...WITH THE TUCSON INTL AIRPORT
REPORTING A TEMP OF 64 DEGS AFTER ACHIEVING AN AFTERNOON HIGH OF 81
DEGS...WHICH TIED THE RECORD FOR THIS DATE. THE OLD RECORD WAS SET
BACK IN 2006. IN ADDITION...TODAYS HIGH WAS 13 DEGS ABOVE NORMAL FOR
THIS DATE.

THE CURRENT TEMP READINGS SEEM TO BE RIGHT ON TRACK WITH THE
INHERITED OVERNIGHT LOWS...SO NO CHANGES ARE PLANNED AT THIS
TIME...BUT WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR THROUGH THE EVENING AND WILL
MAKE ADJUSTMENTS IF WARRANTED.

SEE PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOR DETAILS BEYOND TONIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION...VALID THRU 10/06Z.
VFR WITH SCT CIRRUS AOA 25K FT AGL. SFC WIND WILL MAINTAIN A SELY TO
NELY DIRECTION AT 5-15 KTS WITH AFTERNOON GUSTS UP TO 20 KTS.
AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR TAF AMENDMENTS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING DRY CONDITIONS WITH WELL
ABOVE AVERAGE HIGH TEMPERATURES THIS WEEK. EASTERLY 20-FT WINDS WILL
ALSO CONTINUE...WITH SPEEDS OF 10 TO 15 MPH AND OCCASIONAL AFTERNOON
GUSTINESS TO AROUND 25 MPH IN AREAS THAT FAVOR EAST WINDS. ALTHOUGH
RED FLAG CONDITIONS ARE NOT ANTICIPATED...DAYTIME MINIMUM RELATIVE
HUMIDITY VALUES WILL BE IN THE UPPER SINGLE DIGITS AND TEENS INTO
NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...PERSISTENCE IS A POWERFUL FORECAST TOOL. STRONG
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO DOMINATE OUR WEATHER INTO THE COMING
WEEKEND. EXPECT UNSEASONABLE HEIGHT AND THICKNESS VALUES TO BRING
AFTERNOON HIGHS AS MUCH AS 12 TO 15 DEGREES ABOVE AVERAGE. DRY AND
MORE DRY WITH ONLY SOME PATCHES OF CIRRUS ON THE NORTHERN FRINGE OF
A WEAK DISTURBANCE DIRTYING UP THE BASE OF THE RIDGE TO OUR SOUTH.
WITH THIS LARGER SCALE PATTERN THE RIDGE IS GOING TO BE RATHER
STUBBORN FOR SEVERAL DAYS WITH SE AZ ON THE PROTECTED FRONT FLANK OF
THE RIDGE.

AT THE SURFACE WE WILL SEE A PERSISTENT SURFACE HIGH WITH POSITIONS
RANGING FROM THE CENTRAL BASIN TO THE FRONT RANGE OF THE ROCKIES.
WHENEVER WE HAVE A FRONT RANGE POSITION IT CAN ENHANCE AN EASTERLY
RETURN FLOW FROM NEW MEXICO AND LEAD TO BREEZY CONDITIONS AT TIMES.

PATTERN CHANGE IN THE OFFING THE SECOND HALF OF NEXT WEEK. AN AREA
OF CONVECTION TRANSITIONING OUT OF THE CENTRAL PACIFIC IS HINTING AT
A CONSOLIDATION OF A SOUTHERN BRANCH SPLIT WITH GREATER POTENTIAL
FOR WET TRAJECTORY STORMS TO AFFECT SE AZ AFTER THE 17TH. ECMWF
ENSEMBLE MEAN AND SPREAD TRENDS AT 200-240 HOURS CONTINUE TO
REASONABLY SHOW THE RESULTING TRANSITION WITH THE THE GEFS
SUBSEQUENTLY CONTINUING TO SHOW A FAVORABLE CONSOLIDATION OF THE
500MB 5760M ISOBAR INTO A TROUGH AND THEN ZONAL CONFIGURATION AT 240-
312 HOURS. THIS WOULD SUGGEST CONTINUED VULNERABILITY TO STORMS OFF
THE EASTERN PACIFIC AFTER AN INITIAL TRANSITION STORM THE SECOND
HALF OF NEXT WEEK. THE GFS IS EVEN SUGGESTING A SUBTROPICAL
INFLUENCE INTO THE TRANSITION STORM...BUT AT THIS POINT IT`S UNCLEAR
IF THAT WILL BE MORE OF AN ISSUE FOR US OR NEW MEXICO. THE POINT IS
THE PATTERN WILL BECOME MORE FAVORABLE FOR STORMS BY LATER NEXT WEEK
WITH A SMALL CHANCE OF WEAK SUBTROPICAL INFLUENCES FROM THE
SOUTHWEST AS EARLY AS TUESDAY. YOUR MILEAGE MAY VARY.

&&

.TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

CURRENT DISCUSSION...MOLLERE
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...MEYER/RASMUSSEN

VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...YOUTUBE...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/TUCSON




000
FXUS65 KFGZ 090350
AFDFGZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ
850 PM MST MON FEB 8 2016

.SYNOPSIS...STRONG HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE WESTERN
STATES THROUGH THIS WEEKEND. LOOK FOR CLEAR SKIES AND WARMER
WEATHER FOR NORTHERN ARIZONA. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE 10 TO 15
DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH AT LEAST SATURDAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
SHORT-TERM FORECAST OF WARMER THAN NORMAL DAYTIME TEMPS AND
GENERALLY CLEAR SKIES REMAINS ON TRACK. NO MAJOR UPDATES THIS
EVENING.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION /300 PM MST/...EXPECT DRY WEATHER AND MILD,
SPRING-LIKE TEMPERATURES ACROSS NORTHERN ARIZONA THROUGH AT LEAST
NEXT SUNDAY. A STRONG RIDGE OVER THE WEST COAST TODAY WILL
GRADUALLY SHIFT OVER THE SOUTHWEST WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY. AS
THIS HAPPENS, THE PERSISTENT NORTHEAST FLOW THAT HAS LIMITED
DAYTIME TEMPERATURES (TO AT OR JUST ABOVE NORMAL) FROM THE
MOGOLLON RIM NORTHWARD WILL WEAKEN. THIS SHOULD ALLOW FOR THESE
AREAS TO WARM TO 10-15 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL, JOINING YAVAPAI AND
GILA COUNTIES WHICH HAVE ALREADY BEEN EXPERIENCING THESE MILD
TEMPERATURES. BY NEXT MONDAY, GFS AND QUITE A FEW OF ITS ENSEMBLE
MEMBERS ARE PULLING MOISTURE NORTHWARD AHEAD OF A CUTOFF LOW OFF
THE BAJA, GENERATING SOME PRECIP OVER THE STATE. MOST OTHER
GUIDANCE IS NOT INDICATING THIS SCENARIO AT THIS TIME, SO WE DID
NOT MENTION RAIN IN THE FORECAST FOR NOW, JUST INCREASED CLOUDS A
BIT.

&&

.AVIATION...
FOR THE 06Z PACKAGE...EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS UNDER CLEAR SKIES FOR
THE NEXT 24 HOURS. SFC WINDS NORTHEASTERLY 10-20KTS OVER AND
JUST DOWNWIND OF HIGHER TERRAIN...10KTS OR LESS MOST OTHER AREAS.
AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR TAF AMENDMENTS.

&&

.FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC...KD/JJ
AVIATION...KD

FOR NORTHERN ARIZONA WEATHER INFORMATION VISIT
WEATHER.GOV/FLAGSTAFF




000
FXUS65 KPSR 090337
AFDPSR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PHOENIX AZ
840 PM MST MON FEB 8 2016

.SYNOPSIS...HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN THE DOMINANT WEATHER FEATURE
OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN UNITED STATES THIS WEEK. THIS WILL RESULT IN A
PROLONGED PERIOD OF SUNNY SKIES...ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES...
RELATIVELY LIGHT WINDS...AND LOW HUMIDITY.

&&

.DISCUSSION... A VERY MILD EVENING (FOR EARLY FEB) IS BEING OBSERVED
ACROSS THE REGION...WITH MANY OF THE WARMER LOWER DESERT LOCATIONS
STILL IN THE 70S AT THIS HOUR. VERY STRONG RIDGING ALOFT...WITH
500MB HEIGHTS AOA 584DM...COMBINED WITH LOW-LEVEL DOWNSLOPE
NORTHEASTERLY FLOW HELPED TO PUSH TEMPERATURES THIS AFTERNOON WELL
UP INTO THE 80S AT MANY LOWER DESERT SPOTS ACROSS OUR CWA...WITH
PHOENIX SKY HARBOR REACHING 85F...JUST A DEGREE SHY OF THE RECORD
FOR THE DATE. THE LATEST NAM AND 18Z GFS CONTINUE TO INDICATE THAT
THIS VERY WARM WEATHER WILL LAST THROUGH AT LEAST THE REST OF THE
WEEK...WITH LITTLE DAY-TO-DAY CHANGE IN TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE
PERIOD...UNDER MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES. FOR THE REST OF TONIGHT...OTHER
THAN SOME VERY MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO THE HOURLY GRIDS...CURRENT
FORECASTS ARE LOOKING QUITE GOOD...NO UPDATES ARE PLANNED.

&&

.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...

THROUGH FRIDAY...

AN ANOMALOUSLY STRONG HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM BUILT OVER THE REGION
LAST NIGHT AND WILL REMAIN STATIONARY THIS WEEK. TEMPERATURES ON THE
LOWER DESERTS WILL WARM INTO THE 80S.  HOWEVER...A DEVELOPING
SUBTROPICAL LIKE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK WELL
SOUTH OF AZ...MOVING EAST ACROSS CENTRAL BAJA TODAY INTO NORTH
CENTRAL MEX SOUTH OF EL PASO ON TUE.  A RESULTING NORTH/SOUTH
PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL CONTINUE THE NORTH/NORTHEAST BREEZES ACROSS
THE REGION...PARTICULARLY DOWN THE COLORADO RIVER VALLEY THE
REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. LIGHTER WINDS ARE FORECAST
ON TUESDAY.


THIS WEEKEND...

AGAIN...STEADY STATE UNSEASONABLY WARM AFTERNOONS...IN THE 80S OVER
THE LOWER DESERTS...WILL CONTINUE INTO THE WEEKEND. HOWEVER...THE
HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BREAK DOWN SATURDAY AS A MUCH WEAKENED
PACIFIC DISTURBANCE IS FORECAST TO MOVE ACROSS NORTHERN AZ. OF MUCH
GREATER INTEREST...IS A SHEARED PORTION OF THIS PACIFIC SYSTEM
FORMING A CUTOFF LOW OFF THE SAN DIEGO COAST SUNDAY...DEEPENING
SOUTH TO OFFSHORE SOUTHERN BAJA MONDAY...NEAR THE NORTHERN EDGES OF
WARM EL NINO WATERS.  IN COMPARISON...WE REMEMBER DURING THE 1991-
1992 EL NINO EVENT...CUTOFF LOWS IN THIS EL NINO REGION SPUN UP
INCREDIBLY FAST DUE TO THE PHASING OF A SUBTROPICAL JETSTREAM. THIS
RESULTED IN APPRECIABLE RAINS ON THE SOUTHERN AZ DESERTS. PERHAPS
RAIN IS IN THE OFFING NEXT MONDAY AND TUESDAY WHICH IS A LITTLE
BEYOND THIS 7 DAY FORECAST.

&&

.AVIATION...
SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA INCLUDING KPHX...KIWA...AND KSDL...

EXPECT EAST AND NORTHEASTERLY SURFACE WINDS TO PREVAIL TODAY THROUGH
TUESDAY BEING AT THEIR STRONGEST MIDDAY AND EARLY AFTERNOON...GUSTS
15-20 KTS OCCASIONALLY...BUT OTHERWISE REMAIN BELOW 10 KTS AT OTHER
TIMES. ANTICIPATE SOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE CONDITIONS FROM TIME TO
TIME...ESPECIALLY LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. IN THE LOWER LEVELS
ABOVE THE SURFACE WINDS WILL BE SOLIDLY FROM THE EAST- NORTHEAST.
ALSO IN THAT LAYER...BUT WITHIN 1-2 KFT AGL...SPEEDS WILL STRENGTHEN
AGAIN TONIGHT TO ABOUT 20 KTS. EXPECT THIS SITUATION TO REMAIN BELOW
CRITERIA FOR MENTION OF LLWS IN THE TAFS. OTHERWISE...CLEAR SKIES
EXCEPT FOR SOME CIRRUS PASSING TO THE SOUTH.

SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA/SOUTHWEST ARIZONA INCLUDING KIPL AND KBLH...

EXPECT NORTHERLY SURFACE WINDS TO PREVAIL THROUGH TUESDAY BEING AT
THEIR STRONGEST THIS AFTERNOON OVER THE LOWER COLORADO RIVER VALLEY
WITH GUSTS TO 20 KTS. ANTICIPATE SOME LOCATIONS TO HAVE LIGHT AND
VARIABLE CONDITIONS FAVORING TYPICAL DRAINAGE PATTERNS OVERNIGHT AND
IN THE MORNING HOURS. OTHERWISE...CLEAR SKIES EXCEPT FOR SOME CIRRUS
PASSING TO THE SOUTH.

AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDED TAFS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...AN UNSEASONABLY STRONG HIGH PRESSURE
RIDGE WILL BUILD OVER THE WESTERN STATES DURING THE WEEK. THIS WILL
LEAD TO A PERSISTENT PERIOD OF WELL ABOVE NORMALS HIGH TEMPERATURES
...WITH READINGS PEAKING 10 TO 15 DEGREES ABOVE SEASONAL NORMALS.
MANY LOWER ELEVATION AND DESERT SITES WILL SEE A STRETCH OF DAYS
WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES WARMING PAST THE 80 DEGREE MARK. RH`S WILL
ALSO REMAIN ON THE DRIER AND BELOW NORMAL SIDE DURING THE WEEK WITH
MIN VALUES TYPICALLY IN THE LOW TO MIDDLE TEENS.

LOCALLY BREEZY CONDITIONS ALONG THE CO RIVER VALLEY ARE EXPECTED
EACH AFTERNOON. MORE NOTICEABLE EASTERLY WINDS WILL FLOW INTO THE
SOUTH-CENTRAL AZ DESERTS...WITH ELEVATED WINDS OVER RIDGETOPS AND
GAPS TO THE NORTH/EAST OF PHOENIX. WINDS ELSEWHERE WILL GENERALLY
FOLLOW TYPICAL DRAINAGE/SLOPE DRIVEN HEADINGS WITH LIGHT SPEEDS. BY
WEEKS END THE UPPER RIDGE WILL BEGIN TO SHIFT TO OUR EAST AS
TROUGHING ALIGNS ITSELF OVER THE WEST COAST AGAIN. SOME VERY SLIGHT
TEMPERATURE COOLING AND INCREASING CLOUDINESS ARE LIKELY OVER THE
WEEKEND.

&&

.CLIMATE...
                   PHOENIX         |        YUMA
             FCST | RECORD (YEAR)  | FCST | RECORD (YEAR)

MON FEB 8      83 | 86 (1970)      |   81 | 88 (1996)
TUE FEB 9      83 | 84 (1987)      |   83 | 90 (2015)
WED FEB 10     83 | 87 (1951)      |   83 | 93 (1951)
THU FEB 11     83 | 83 (1951)      |   84 | 86 (1971)

&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT BASED ON STANDARD OPERATING
PROCEDURES.

&&

.PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AZ...NONE.
CA...NONE.
&&

$$

VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/PHOENIX

DISCUSSION...PERCHA/VASQUEZ
CLIMATE......NOLTE
AVIATION...AJ
FIRE WEATHER...NOLTE/CB




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