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000
FXUS65 KPSR 261026
AFDPSR
AFDPSR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PHOENIX AZ
325 AM MST TUE MAY 26 2015

.UPDATE...UPDATED AVIATION AND FIRE WEATHER DISCUSSIONS.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
DRY WEATHER ALONG WITH A WARMING TREND IS FORECAST FOR THE REMAINDER
OF THIS WEEK AND WEEKEND. A DRY WEATHER SYSTEM WILL BRING A PERIOD OF
CLOUDINESS ON WEDNESDAY...BUT THEREAFTER SKIES WILL REMAIN CLEAR TO
MOSTLY CLEAR THROUGH THE WEEKEND. AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES FOR THE
LOWER DESERTS BY FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY WILL GENERALLY TOP OUT BETWEEN
100 AND 105 DEGREES.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
WHAT YOU WOULD EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO BE ACROSS THE DESERT SOUTHWEST
WILL FINALLY COME TO FRUITION OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS AS THE PAST
COUPLE WEEKS OF DEEP PACIFIC LOWS DOMINATING THE WESTERN U.S. COMES
TO AN END. GRADUALLY OVER THE NEXT COUPLE DAYS...A FAIRLY ROBUST
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BUILD OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC AND EVENTUALLY
SHIFT INTO THE WESTERN CONUS LATE THIS WEEK. BEFORE THAT POINT...WE
WILL SEE SOMEWHAT QUASI-ZONAL WESTERLY DRY FLOW WITH A VERY WEAK
SHORTWAVE TROUGH PASSING THROUGH NORTHERN ARIZONA TODAY AND A
SOMEWHAT MORE SIGNIFICANT TROUGH PASSING ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PORTION
OF THE THE REGION ON WEDNESDAY.

HEIGHTS ALOFT HAVE BUILT UP OVER THE PAST COUPLE DAYS AND WILL
REMAIN FAIRLY CONSISTENT THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK WHILE
TEMPERATURES WARM SLIGHTLY EACH DAY. HIGHS TODAY AND WEDNESDAY WILL
REACH INTO THE LOW TO MID 90S ACROSS THE DESERTS...OR STILL A FEW
DEGREES BELOW NORMALS. A SHORTWAVE TROUGH CURRENTLY SEEN ON WATER
VAPOR AS A COMPACT CLOSED LOW CIRCULATION ROUGHLY 900 MILES WEST OF
SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA IS FORECAST TO WEAKEN OVER THE NEXT DAY OR
SO...REACHING NORTHERN BAJA WEDNESDAY MORNING. MODELS ARE IN GOOD
AGREEMENT TAKING THE ASSOCIATED PV ANOMALY MAINLY ACROSS NORTHERN
MEXICO WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT...POSSIBLY SKIRTING
THROUGH FAR SOUTHEAST ARIZONA. UPPER LEVEL RH FIELDS INDICATE ENOUGH
MOISTURE PRESENT WITH THIS SYSTEM TO BRING IN A GOOD AMOUNT OF HIGH
CLOUDS ON WEDNESDAY AND LIKELY A BRIEF PERIOD OF MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES.
THIS MAY INFLUENCE HIGH TEMPERATURES SLIGHTLY WEDNESDAY...BUT LIKELY NOT
MUCH AS MOST OF THE DAY WILL SEE QUITE A BIT OF FILTERED SUNSHINE.

THE BUILDING PACIFIC RIDGE WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION LATE THIS WEEK
WITH 500MB HEIGHTS INCREASING TO AROUND 585DM BY LATE FRIDAY. THIS
WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO RETURN TO SEASONAL NORMALS ON THURSDAY AND
EVEN A FEW DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL STARTING FRIDAY AND INTO THE WEEKEND.
WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED IF A FEW WARMER LOWER DESERT SPOTS TOP OUT AT
AROUND 105 ON SATURDAY AND SUNDAY WITH THE RIDGE AXIS MOVING
OVERHEAD. LONG RANGE MODELS ARE CURRENTLY IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH A
PACIFIC LOW AFFECTING MAINLY THE NORTHERN HALF OF CALIFORNIA AND THE
NORTHERN PORTION OF THE GREAT BASIN EARLY NEXT WEEK. THIS SHOULD
ALLOW FOR A BIT OF COOLING OVER OUR REGION...BUT NOTHING SUBSTANTIAL.

&&

.AVIATION... SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA INCLUDING KPHX...KIWA...AND
KSDL...AND SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA AND SOUTHWEST ARIZONA INCLUDING KIPL
AND KBLH...

DRY WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH
WEDNESDAY MORNING KEEPING SKIES MOSTLY CLEAR AT THE TERMINALS. THE
ONLY SKY COVER WILL BE IN THE FORM OF FEW-SCT CIRRUS DECKS.
OTHERWISE WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND FAVORING NORMAL DIURNAL SPEEDS AND
DIRECTIONS ACROSS THE CENTRAL AZ DESERT TAF SITES. WINDS TO FAVOR
THE SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST NEXT 24 HOURS AT BOTH KBLH AND KIPL. NO
AVIATION IMPACTS EXPECTED AT ANY TERMINAL FOR AT LEAST THE NEXT 24
HOURS.

AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDED TAFS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY...
HIGH PRESSURE THAT WILL BE GRADUALLY BUILDING OVER THE REGION WILL
KEEP DRY CONDITIONS IN PLACE THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD...WITH
TEMPERATURES GRADUALLY WARMING THROUGH SUNDAY...BEFORE TAPERING OFF
SLIGHTLY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. HIGHS WILL CLIMB ABOVE SEASONAL
NORMALS BY THE WEEKEND. LOWER DESERT HIGHS WILL LIKELY REACH 100
DEGREES AT MOST LOCATIONS BY FRIDAY...THEN RISE INTO THE 101-105
DEGREE RANGE FROM SATURDAY ONWARD INTO NEXT MONDAY. MINIMUM RH
VALUES ARE EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM AROUND 8 PERCENT TO THE MID TEENS
EACH DAY. DESPITE THESE LOW RH VALUES...THE COMBINATION OF LIGHT
WINDS AND FAIR-GOOD OVERNIGHT RECOVERIES WILL CONTINUE TO KEEP FIRE
DANGER LEVELS AT RELATIVELY LOW LEVELS THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.

&&

.PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AZ...NONE.
CA...NONE.
&&

$$

VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/PHOENIX

DISCUSSION...KUHLMAN
AVIATION...CB
FIRE WEATHER...PERCHA/CB





000
FXUS65 KPSR 261026 AAA
AFDPSR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PHOENIX AZ
325 AM MST TUE MAY 26 2015

.UPDATE...UPDATED AVIATION AND FIRE WEATHER DISCUSSIONS.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
DRY WEATHER ALONG WITH A WARMING TREND IS FORECAST FOR THE REMAINDER
OF THIS WEEK AND WEEKEND. A DRY WEATHER SYSTEM WILL BRING A PERIOD OF
CLOUDINESS ON WEDNESDAY...BUT THEREAFTER SKIES WILL REMAIN CLEAR TO
MOSTLY CLEAR THROUGH THE WEEKEND. AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES FOR THE
LOWER DESERTS BY FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY WILL GENERALLY TOP OUT BETWEEN
100 AND 105 DEGREES.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
WHAT YOU WOULD EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO BE ACROSS THE DESERT SOUTHWEST
WILL FINALLY COME TO FRUITION OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS AS THE PAST
COUPLE WEEKS OF DEEP PACIFIC LOWS DOMINATING THE WESTERN U.S. COMES
TO AN END. GRADUALLY OVER THE NEXT COUPLE DAYS...A FAIRLY ROBUST
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BUILD OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC AND EVENTUALLY
SHIFT INTO THE WESTERN CONUS LATE THIS WEEK. BEFORE THAT POINT...WE
WILL SEE SOMEWHAT QUASI-ZONAL WESTERLY DRY FLOW WITH A VERY WEAK
SHORTWAVE TROUGH PASSING THROUGH NORTHERN ARIZONA TODAY AND A
SOMEWHAT MORE SIGNIFICANT TROUGH PASSING ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PORTION
OF THE THE REGION ON WEDNESDAY.

HEIGHTS ALOFT HAVE BUILT UP OVER THE PAST COUPLE DAYS AND WILL
REMAIN FAIRLY CONSISTENT THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK WHILE
TEMPERATURES WARM SLIGHTLY EACH DAY. HIGHS TODAY AND WEDNESDAY WILL
REACH INTO THE LOW TO MID 90S ACROSS THE DESERTS...OR STILL A FEW
DEGREES BELOW NORMALS. A SHORTWAVE TROUGH CURRENTLY SEEN ON WATER
VAPOR AS A COMPACT CLOSED LOW CIRCULATION ROUGHLY 900 MILES WEST OF
SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA IS FORECAST TO WEAKEN OVER THE NEXT DAY OR
SO...REACHING NORTHERN BAJA WEDNESDAY MORNING. MODELS ARE IN GOOD
AGREEMENT TAKING THE ASSOCIATED PV ANOMALY MAINLY ACROSS NORTHERN
MEXICO WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT...POSSIBLY SKIRTING
THROUGH FAR SOUTHEAST ARIZONA. UPPER LEVEL RH FIELDS INDICATE ENOUGH
MOISTURE PRESENT WITH THIS SYSTEM TO BRING IN A GOOD AMOUNT OF HIGH
CLOUDS ON WEDNESDAY AND LIKELY A BRIEF PERIOD OF MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES.
THIS MAY INFLUENCE HIGH TEMPERATURES SLIGHTLY WEDNESDAY...BUT LIKELY NOT
MUCH AS MOST OF THE DAY WILL SEE QUITE A BIT OF FILTERED SUNSHINE.

THE BUILDING PACIFIC RIDGE WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION LATE THIS WEEK
WITH 500MB HEIGHTS INCREASING TO AROUND 585DM BY LATE FRIDAY. THIS
WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO RETURN TO SEASONAL NORMALS ON THURSDAY AND
EVEN A FEW DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL STARTING FRIDAY AND INTO THE WEEKEND.
WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED IF A FEW WARMER LOWER DESERT SPOTS TOP OUT AT
AROUND 105 ON SATURDAY AND SUNDAY WITH THE RIDGE AXIS MOVING
OVERHEAD. LONG RANGE MODELS ARE CURRENTLY IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH A
PACIFIC LOW AFFECTING MAINLY THE NORTHERN HALF OF CALIFORNIA AND THE
NORTHERN PORTION OF THE GREAT BASIN EARLY NEXT WEEK. THIS SHOULD
ALLOW FOR A BIT OF COOLING OVER OUR REGION...BUT NOTHING SUBSTANTIAL.

&&

.AVIATION... SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA INCLUDING KPHX...KIWA...AND
KSDL...AND SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA AND SOUTHWEST ARIZONA INCLUDING KIPL
AND KBLH...

DRY WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH
WEDNESDAY MORNING KEEPING SKIES MOSTLY CLEAR AT THE TERMINALS. THE
ONLY SKY COVER WILL BE IN THE FORM OF FEW-SCT CIRRUS DECKS.
OTHERWISE WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND FAVORING NORMAL DIURNAL SPEEDS AND
DIRECTIONS ACROSS THE CENTRAL AZ DESERT TAF SITES. WINDS TO FAVOR
THE SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST NEXT 24 HOURS AT BOTH KBLH AND KIPL. NO
AVIATION IMPACTS EXPECTED AT ANY TERMINAL FOR AT LEAST THE NEXT 24
HOURS.

AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDED TAFS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY...
HIGH PRESSURE THAT WILL BE GRADUALLY BUILDING OVER THE REGION WILL
KEEP DRY CONDITIONS IN PLACE THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD...WITH
TEMPERATURES GRADUALLY WARMING THROUGH SUNDAY...BEFORE TAPERING OFF
SLIGHTLY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. HIGHS WILL CLIMB ABOVE SEASONAL
NORMALS BY THE WEEKEND. LOWER DESERT HIGHS WILL LIKELY REACH 100
DEGREES AT MOST LOCATIONS BY FRIDAY...THEN RISE INTO THE 101-105
DEGREE RANGE FROM SATURDAY ONWARD INTO NEXT MONDAY. MINIMUM RH
VALUES ARE EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM AROUND 8 PERCENT TO THE MID TEENS
EACH DAY. DESPITE THESE LOW RH VALUES...THE COMBINATION OF LIGHT
WINDS AND FAIR-GOOD OVERNIGHT RECOVERIES WILL CONTINUE TO KEEP FIRE
DANGER LEVELS AT RELATIVELY LOW LEVELS THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.

&&

.PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AZ...NONE.
CA...NONE.
&&

$$

VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/PHOENIX

DISCUSSION...KUHLMAN
AVIATION...CB
FIRE WEATHER...PERCHA/CB




000
FXUS65 KPSR 261026
AFDPSR
AFDPSR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PHOENIX AZ
325 AM MST TUE MAY 26 2015

.UPDATE...UPDATED AVIATION AND FIRE WEATHER DISCUSSIONS.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
DRY WEATHER ALONG WITH A WARMING TREND IS FORECAST FOR THE REMAINDER
OF THIS WEEK AND WEEKEND. A DRY WEATHER SYSTEM WILL BRING A PERIOD OF
CLOUDINESS ON WEDNESDAY...BUT THEREAFTER SKIES WILL REMAIN CLEAR TO
MOSTLY CLEAR THROUGH THE WEEKEND. AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES FOR THE
LOWER DESERTS BY FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY WILL GENERALLY TOP OUT BETWEEN
100 AND 105 DEGREES.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
WHAT YOU WOULD EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO BE ACROSS THE DESERT SOUTHWEST
WILL FINALLY COME TO FRUITION OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS AS THE PAST
COUPLE WEEKS OF DEEP PACIFIC LOWS DOMINATING THE WESTERN U.S. COMES
TO AN END. GRADUALLY OVER THE NEXT COUPLE DAYS...A FAIRLY ROBUST
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BUILD OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC AND EVENTUALLY
SHIFT INTO THE WESTERN CONUS LATE THIS WEEK. BEFORE THAT POINT...WE
WILL SEE SOMEWHAT QUASI-ZONAL WESTERLY DRY FLOW WITH A VERY WEAK
SHORTWAVE TROUGH PASSING THROUGH NORTHERN ARIZONA TODAY AND A
SOMEWHAT MORE SIGNIFICANT TROUGH PASSING ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PORTION
OF THE THE REGION ON WEDNESDAY.

HEIGHTS ALOFT HAVE BUILT UP OVER THE PAST COUPLE DAYS AND WILL
REMAIN FAIRLY CONSISTENT THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK WHILE
TEMPERATURES WARM SLIGHTLY EACH DAY. HIGHS TODAY AND WEDNESDAY WILL
REACH INTO THE LOW TO MID 90S ACROSS THE DESERTS...OR STILL A FEW
DEGREES BELOW NORMALS. A SHORTWAVE TROUGH CURRENTLY SEEN ON WATER
VAPOR AS A COMPACT CLOSED LOW CIRCULATION ROUGHLY 900 MILES WEST OF
SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA IS FORECAST TO WEAKEN OVER THE NEXT DAY OR
SO...REACHING NORTHERN BAJA WEDNESDAY MORNING. MODELS ARE IN GOOD
AGREEMENT TAKING THE ASSOCIATED PV ANOMALY MAINLY ACROSS NORTHERN
MEXICO WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT...POSSIBLY SKIRTING
THROUGH FAR SOUTHEAST ARIZONA. UPPER LEVEL RH FIELDS INDICATE ENOUGH
MOISTURE PRESENT WITH THIS SYSTEM TO BRING IN A GOOD AMOUNT OF HIGH
CLOUDS ON WEDNESDAY AND LIKELY A BRIEF PERIOD OF MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES.
THIS MAY INFLUENCE HIGH TEMPERATURES SLIGHTLY WEDNESDAY...BUT LIKELY NOT
MUCH AS MOST OF THE DAY WILL SEE QUITE A BIT OF FILTERED SUNSHINE.

THE BUILDING PACIFIC RIDGE WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION LATE THIS WEEK
WITH 500MB HEIGHTS INCREASING TO AROUND 585DM BY LATE FRIDAY. THIS
WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO RETURN TO SEASONAL NORMALS ON THURSDAY AND
EVEN A FEW DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL STARTING FRIDAY AND INTO THE WEEKEND.
WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED IF A FEW WARMER LOWER DESERT SPOTS TOP OUT AT
AROUND 105 ON SATURDAY AND SUNDAY WITH THE RIDGE AXIS MOVING
OVERHEAD. LONG RANGE MODELS ARE CURRENTLY IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH A
PACIFIC LOW AFFECTING MAINLY THE NORTHERN HALF OF CALIFORNIA AND THE
NORTHERN PORTION OF THE GREAT BASIN EARLY NEXT WEEK. THIS SHOULD
ALLOW FOR A BIT OF COOLING OVER OUR REGION...BUT NOTHING SUBSTANTIAL.

&&

.AVIATION... SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA INCLUDING KPHX...KIWA...AND
KSDL...AND SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA AND SOUTHWEST ARIZONA INCLUDING KIPL
AND KBLH...

DRY WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH
WEDNESDAY MORNING KEEPING SKIES MOSTLY CLEAR AT THE TERMINALS. THE
ONLY SKY COVER WILL BE IN THE FORM OF FEW-SCT CIRRUS DECKS.
OTHERWISE WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND FAVORING NORMAL DIURNAL SPEEDS AND
DIRECTIONS ACROSS THE CENTRAL AZ DESERT TAF SITES. WINDS TO FAVOR
THE SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST NEXT 24 HOURS AT BOTH KBLH AND KIPL. NO
AVIATION IMPACTS EXPECTED AT ANY TERMINAL FOR AT LEAST THE NEXT 24
HOURS.

AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDED TAFS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY...
HIGH PRESSURE THAT WILL BE GRADUALLY BUILDING OVER THE REGION WILL
KEEP DRY CONDITIONS IN PLACE THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD...WITH
TEMPERATURES GRADUALLY WARMING THROUGH SUNDAY...BEFORE TAPERING OFF
SLIGHTLY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. HIGHS WILL CLIMB ABOVE SEASONAL
NORMALS BY THE WEEKEND. LOWER DESERT HIGHS WILL LIKELY REACH 100
DEGREES AT MOST LOCATIONS BY FRIDAY...THEN RISE INTO THE 101-105
DEGREE RANGE FROM SATURDAY ONWARD INTO NEXT MONDAY. MINIMUM RH
VALUES ARE EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM AROUND 8 PERCENT TO THE MID TEENS
EACH DAY. DESPITE THESE LOW RH VALUES...THE COMBINATION OF LIGHT
WINDS AND FAIR-GOOD OVERNIGHT RECOVERIES WILL CONTINUE TO KEEP FIRE
DANGER LEVELS AT RELATIVELY LOW LEVELS THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.

&&

.PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AZ...NONE.
CA...NONE.
&&

$$

VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/PHOENIX

DISCUSSION...KUHLMAN
AVIATION...CB
FIRE WEATHER...PERCHA/CB





000
FXUS65 KPSR 261026 AAA
AFDPSR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PHOENIX AZ
325 AM MST TUE MAY 26 2015

.UPDATE...UPDATED AVIATION AND FIRE WEATHER DISCUSSIONS.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
DRY WEATHER ALONG WITH A WARMING TREND IS FORECAST FOR THE REMAINDER
OF THIS WEEK AND WEEKEND. A DRY WEATHER SYSTEM WILL BRING A PERIOD OF
CLOUDINESS ON WEDNESDAY...BUT THEREAFTER SKIES WILL REMAIN CLEAR TO
MOSTLY CLEAR THROUGH THE WEEKEND. AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES FOR THE
LOWER DESERTS BY FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY WILL GENERALLY TOP OUT BETWEEN
100 AND 105 DEGREES.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
WHAT YOU WOULD EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO BE ACROSS THE DESERT SOUTHWEST
WILL FINALLY COME TO FRUITION OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS AS THE PAST
COUPLE WEEKS OF DEEP PACIFIC LOWS DOMINATING THE WESTERN U.S. COMES
TO AN END. GRADUALLY OVER THE NEXT COUPLE DAYS...A FAIRLY ROBUST
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BUILD OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC AND EVENTUALLY
SHIFT INTO THE WESTERN CONUS LATE THIS WEEK. BEFORE THAT POINT...WE
WILL SEE SOMEWHAT QUASI-ZONAL WESTERLY DRY FLOW WITH A VERY WEAK
SHORTWAVE TROUGH PASSING THROUGH NORTHERN ARIZONA TODAY AND A
SOMEWHAT MORE SIGNIFICANT TROUGH PASSING ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PORTION
OF THE THE REGION ON WEDNESDAY.

HEIGHTS ALOFT HAVE BUILT UP OVER THE PAST COUPLE DAYS AND WILL
REMAIN FAIRLY CONSISTENT THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK WHILE
TEMPERATURES WARM SLIGHTLY EACH DAY. HIGHS TODAY AND WEDNESDAY WILL
REACH INTO THE LOW TO MID 90S ACROSS THE DESERTS...OR STILL A FEW
DEGREES BELOW NORMALS. A SHORTWAVE TROUGH CURRENTLY SEEN ON WATER
VAPOR AS A COMPACT CLOSED LOW CIRCULATION ROUGHLY 900 MILES WEST OF
SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA IS FORECAST TO WEAKEN OVER THE NEXT DAY OR
SO...REACHING NORTHERN BAJA WEDNESDAY MORNING. MODELS ARE IN GOOD
AGREEMENT TAKING THE ASSOCIATED PV ANOMALY MAINLY ACROSS NORTHERN
MEXICO WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT...POSSIBLY SKIRTING
THROUGH FAR SOUTHEAST ARIZONA. UPPER LEVEL RH FIELDS INDICATE ENOUGH
MOISTURE PRESENT WITH THIS SYSTEM TO BRING IN A GOOD AMOUNT OF HIGH
CLOUDS ON WEDNESDAY AND LIKELY A BRIEF PERIOD OF MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES.
THIS MAY INFLUENCE HIGH TEMPERATURES SLIGHTLY WEDNESDAY...BUT LIKELY NOT
MUCH AS MOST OF THE DAY WILL SEE QUITE A BIT OF FILTERED SUNSHINE.

THE BUILDING PACIFIC RIDGE WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION LATE THIS WEEK
WITH 500MB HEIGHTS INCREASING TO AROUND 585DM BY LATE FRIDAY. THIS
WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO RETURN TO SEASONAL NORMALS ON THURSDAY AND
EVEN A FEW DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL STARTING FRIDAY AND INTO THE WEEKEND.
WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED IF A FEW WARMER LOWER DESERT SPOTS TOP OUT AT
AROUND 105 ON SATURDAY AND SUNDAY WITH THE RIDGE AXIS MOVING
OVERHEAD. LONG RANGE MODELS ARE CURRENTLY IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH A
PACIFIC LOW AFFECTING MAINLY THE NORTHERN HALF OF CALIFORNIA AND THE
NORTHERN PORTION OF THE GREAT BASIN EARLY NEXT WEEK. THIS SHOULD
ALLOW FOR A BIT OF COOLING OVER OUR REGION...BUT NOTHING SUBSTANTIAL.

&&

.AVIATION... SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA INCLUDING KPHX...KIWA...AND
KSDL...AND SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA AND SOUTHWEST ARIZONA INCLUDING KIPL
AND KBLH...

DRY WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH
WEDNESDAY MORNING KEEPING SKIES MOSTLY CLEAR AT THE TERMINALS. THE
ONLY SKY COVER WILL BE IN THE FORM OF FEW-SCT CIRRUS DECKS.
OTHERWISE WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND FAVORING NORMAL DIURNAL SPEEDS AND
DIRECTIONS ACROSS THE CENTRAL AZ DESERT TAF SITES. WINDS TO FAVOR
THE SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST NEXT 24 HOURS AT BOTH KBLH AND KIPL. NO
AVIATION IMPACTS EXPECTED AT ANY TERMINAL FOR AT LEAST THE NEXT 24
HOURS.

AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDED TAFS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY...
HIGH PRESSURE THAT WILL BE GRADUALLY BUILDING OVER THE REGION WILL
KEEP DRY CONDITIONS IN PLACE THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD...WITH
TEMPERATURES GRADUALLY WARMING THROUGH SUNDAY...BEFORE TAPERING OFF
SLIGHTLY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. HIGHS WILL CLIMB ABOVE SEASONAL
NORMALS BY THE WEEKEND. LOWER DESERT HIGHS WILL LIKELY REACH 100
DEGREES AT MOST LOCATIONS BY FRIDAY...THEN RISE INTO THE 101-105
DEGREE RANGE FROM SATURDAY ONWARD INTO NEXT MONDAY. MINIMUM RH
VALUES ARE EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM AROUND 8 PERCENT TO THE MID TEENS
EACH DAY. DESPITE THESE LOW RH VALUES...THE COMBINATION OF LIGHT
WINDS AND FAIR-GOOD OVERNIGHT RECOVERIES WILL CONTINUE TO KEEP FIRE
DANGER LEVELS AT RELATIVELY LOW LEVELS THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.

&&

.PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AZ...NONE.
CA...NONE.
&&

$$

VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/PHOENIX

DISCUSSION...KUHLMAN
AVIATION...CB
FIRE WEATHER...PERCHA/CB


  [top]

000
FXUS65 KFGZ 261013
AFDFGZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ
230 AM MST TUE MAY 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...THE WEATHER PATTERN WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT TO WARMER AND
DRIER CONDITIONS THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...STARTING TODAY AND HEADING INTO THE COMING
WEEKEND...THE TREND WILL BE TOWARD WARMER AND DRIER CONDITIONS.

FOR TODAY...A DRIER AIR MASS WILL MOVE ACROSS NORTHERN ARIZONA FROM
THE WEST. JUST ENOUGH MOISTURE WILL LINGER FOR A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING SHOWERS AND STORMS ALONG THE
ARIZONA/UTAH BORDER AND FOUR CORNERS AREA. ANY ACTIVITY WILL BE HIGH
BASED WITH GUSTY WINDS AND CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING THE MAIN
THREAT.

ON WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...A WEAK WEATHER DISTURBANCE WILL SWING
ACROSS THE AREA BUT WILL BE MUCH WARMER AND DRIER THAN THE LAST
SEVERAL SUCH DISTURBANCES. LOOKS LIKE ENOUGH MOISTURE WILL LINGER
FOR A SLIGHT CHANCE OF HIGH BASED SHOWERS AND STORMS NEAR THE
ARIZONA/UTAH BORDER AND THE FOUR CORNERS REGION THROUGH THURSDAY.

FOR FRIDAY AND THE COMING WEEKEND...MODELS REMAIN IN FAIRLY GOOD
AGREEMENT WITH HIGH PRESSURE MOVING ACROSS ARIZONA. AT THIS TIME IT
LOOKS LIKE DRY CONDITIONS AND THE WARMEST TEMPERATURES SO FAR THIS
YEAR ARE HEADED OUR WAY.

&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 12Z PACKAGE...EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL
OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. ISOLATED -TSRA POSSIBLE 17Z-03Z ALONG THE
UTAH AND NEW MEXICO BORDERS...INCLUDING NEAR THE KPGA TERMINAL...
THOUGH PROBABILITIES ARE TOO LOW TO INCLUDE IN TAF. AVIATION
DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR TAF AMENDMENTS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...WARMER AND DRIER CONDITIONS DEVELOP TODAY AND
WEDNESDAY AS WEST TO SOUTHWEST FLOW DEVELOPS OVER ARIZONA. ISOLATED
HIGH-BASED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED ALONG THE UTAH AND NEW MEXICO
BORDERS THIS AFTERNOON...WITH GUSTY AND ERRATIC OUTFLOW WIND
POSSIBLE.

THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...DRY WEATHER WITH A WARMING TREND ARE IN
STORE. DAYTIME TEMPERATURES WILL WARM TO SEVERAL DEGREES ABOVE
NORMAL BY SATURDAY. WINDS WILL REMAIN ON THE LIGHT SIDE...GENERALLY
15 MPH OR LESS.

&&

.FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC...MCCOLLUM
AVIATION...JJ
FIRE WEATHER...JJ




000
FXUS65 KFGZ 261013
AFDFGZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ
230 AM MST TUE MAY 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...THE WEATHER PATTERN WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT TO WARMER AND
DRIER CONDITIONS THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...STARTING TODAY AND HEADING INTO THE COMING
WEEKEND...THE TREND WILL BE TOWARD WARMER AND DRIER CONDITIONS.

FOR TODAY...A DRIER AIR MASS WILL MOVE ACROSS NORTHERN ARIZONA FROM
THE WEST. JUST ENOUGH MOISTURE WILL LINGER FOR A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING SHOWERS AND STORMS ALONG THE
ARIZONA/UTAH BORDER AND FOUR CORNERS AREA. ANY ACTIVITY WILL BE HIGH
BASED WITH GUSTY WINDS AND CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING THE MAIN
THREAT.

ON WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...A WEAK WEATHER DISTURBANCE WILL SWING
ACROSS THE AREA BUT WILL BE MUCH WARMER AND DRIER THAN THE LAST
SEVERAL SUCH DISTURBANCES. LOOKS LIKE ENOUGH MOISTURE WILL LINGER
FOR A SLIGHT CHANCE OF HIGH BASED SHOWERS AND STORMS NEAR THE
ARIZONA/UTAH BORDER AND THE FOUR CORNERS REGION THROUGH THURSDAY.

FOR FRIDAY AND THE COMING WEEKEND...MODELS REMAIN IN FAIRLY GOOD
AGREEMENT WITH HIGH PRESSURE MOVING ACROSS ARIZONA. AT THIS TIME IT
LOOKS LIKE DRY CONDITIONS AND THE WARMEST TEMPERATURES SO FAR THIS
YEAR ARE HEADED OUR WAY.

&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 12Z PACKAGE...EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL
OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. ISOLATED -TSRA POSSIBLE 17Z-03Z ALONG THE
UTAH AND NEW MEXICO BORDERS...INCLUDING NEAR THE KPGA TERMINAL...
THOUGH PROBABILITIES ARE TOO LOW TO INCLUDE IN TAF. AVIATION
DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR TAF AMENDMENTS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...WARMER AND DRIER CONDITIONS DEVELOP TODAY AND
WEDNESDAY AS WEST TO SOUTHWEST FLOW DEVELOPS OVER ARIZONA. ISOLATED
HIGH-BASED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED ALONG THE UTAH AND NEW MEXICO
BORDERS THIS AFTERNOON...WITH GUSTY AND ERRATIC OUTFLOW WIND
POSSIBLE.

THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...DRY WEATHER WITH A WARMING TREND ARE IN
STORE. DAYTIME TEMPERATURES WILL WARM TO SEVERAL DEGREES ABOVE
NORMAL BY SATURDAY. WINDS WILL REMAIN ON THE LIGHT SIDE...GENERALLY
15 MPH OR LESS.

&&

.FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC...MCCOLLUM
AVIATION...JJ
FIRE WEATHER...JJ



000
FXUS65 KFGZ 261013
AFDFGZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ
230 AM MST TUE MAY 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...THE WEATHER PATTERN WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT TO WARMER AND
DRIER CONDITIONS THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...STARTING TODAY AND HEADING INTO THE COMING
WEEKEND...THE TREND WILL BE TOWARD WARMER AND DRIER CONDITIONS.

FOR TODAY...A DRIER AIR MASS WILL MOVE ACROSS NORTHERN ARIZONA FROM
THE WEST. JUST ENOUGH MOISTURE WILL LINGER FOR A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING SHOWERS AND STORMS ALONG THE
ARIZONA/UTAH BORDER AND FOUR CORNERS AREA. ANY ACTIVITY WILL BE HIGH
BASED WITH GUSTY WINDS AND CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING THE MAIN
THREAT.

ON WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...A WEAK WEATHER DISTURBANCE WILL SWING
ACROSS THE AREA BUT WILL BE MUCH WARMER AND DRIER THAN THE LAST
SEVERAL SUCH DISTURBANCES. LOOKS LIKE ENOUGH MOISTURE WILL LINGER
FOR A SLIGHT CHANCE OF HIGH BASED SHOWERS AND STORMS NEAR THE
ARIZONA/UTAH BORDER AND THE FOUR CORNERS REGION THROUGH THURSDAY.

FOR FRIDAY AND THE COMING WEEKEND...MODELS REMAIN IN FAIRLY GOOD
AGREEMENT WITH HIGH PRESSURE MOVING ACROSS ARIZONA. AT THIS TIME IT
LOOKS LIKE DRY CONDITIONS AND THE WARMEST TEMPERATURES SO FAR THIS
YEAR ARE HEADED OUR WAY.

&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 12Z PACKAGE...EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL
OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. ISOLATED -TSRA POSSIBLE 17Z-03Z ALONG THE
UTAH AND NEW MEXICO BORDERS...INCLUDING NEAR THE KPGA TERMINAL...
THOUGH PROBABILITIES ARE TOO LOW TO INCLUDE IN TAF. AVIATION
DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR TAF AMENDMENTS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...WARMER AND DRIER CONDITIONS DEVELOP TODAY AND
WEDNESDAY AS WEST TO SOUTHWEST FLOW DEVELOPS OVER ARIZONA. ISOLATED
HIGH-BASED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED ALONG THE UTAH AND NEW MEXICO
BORDERS THIS AFTERNOON...WITH GUSTY AND ERRATIC OUTFLOW WIND
POSSIBLE.

THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...DRY WEATHER WITH A WARMING TREND ARE IN
STORE. DAYTIME TEMPERATURES WILL WARM TO SEVERAL DEGREES ABOVE
NORMAL BY SATURDAY. WINDS WILL REMAIN ON THE LIGHT SIDE...GENERALLY
15 MPH OR LESS.

&&

.FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC...MCCOLLUM
AVIATION...JJ
FIRE WEATHER...JJ



000
FXUS65 KPSR 260948
AFDPSR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PHOENIX AZ
248 AM MST TUE MAY 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
DRY WEATHER ALONG WITH A WARMING TREND IS FORECAST FOR THE REMAINDER
OF THIS WEEK AND WEEKEND. A DRY WEATHER SYSTEM WILL BRING A PERIOD OF
CLOUDINESS ON WEDNESDAY...BUT THEREAFTER SKIES WILL REMAIN CLEAR TO
MOSTLY CLEAR THROUGH THE WEEKEND. AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES FOR THE
LOWER DESERTS BY FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY WILL GENERALLY TOP OUT BETWEEN
100 AND 105 DEGREES.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
WHAT YOU WOULD EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO BE ACROSS THE DESERT SOUTHWEST
WILL FINALLY COME TO FRUITION OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS AS THE PAST
COUPLE WEEKS OF DEEP PACIFIC LOWS DOMINATING THE WESTERN U.S. COMES
TO AN END. GRADUALLY OVER THE NEXT COUPLE DAYS...A FAIRLY ROBUST
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BUILD OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC AND EVENTUALLY
SHIFT INTO THE WESTERN CONUS LATE THIS WEEK. BEFORE THAT POINT...WE
WILL SEE SOMEWHAT QUASI-ZONAL WESTERLY DRY FLOW WITH A VERY WEAK
SHORTWAVE TROUGH PASSING THROUGH NORTHERN ARIZONA TODAY AND A
SOMEWHAT MORE SIGNIFICANT TROUGH PASSING ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PORTION
OF THE THE REGION ON WEDNESDAY.

HEIGHTS ALOFT HAVE BUILT UP OVER THE PAST COUPLE DAYS AND WILL
REMAIN FAIRLY CONSISTENT THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK WHILE
TEMPERATURES WARM SLIGHTLY EACH DAY. HIGHS TODAY AND WEDNESDAY WILL
REACH INTO THE LOW TO MID 90S ACROSS THE DESERTS...OR STILL A FEW
DEGREES BELOW NORMALS. A SHORTWAVE TROUGH CURRENTLY SEEN ON WATER
VAPOR AS A COMPACT CLOSED LOW CIRCULATION ROUGHLY 900 MILES WEST OF
SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA IS FORECAST TO WEAKEN OVER THE NEXT DAY OR
SO...REACHING NORTHERN BAJA WEDNESDAY MORNING. MODELS ARE IN GOOD
AGREEMENT TAKING THE ASSOCIATED PV ANOMALY MAINLY ACROSS NORTHERN
MEXICO WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT...POSSIBLY SKIRTING
THROUGH FAR SOUTHEAST ARIZONA. UPPER LEVEL RH FIELDS INDICATE ENOUGH
MOISTURE PRESENT WITH THIS SYSTEM TO BRING IN A GOOD AMOUNT OF HIGH
CLOUDS ON WEDNESDAY AND LIKELY A BRIEF PERIOD OF MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES.
THIS MAY INFLUENCE HIGH TEMPERATURES SLIGHTLY WEDNESDAY...BUT LIKELY NOT
MUCH AS MOST OF THE DAY WILL SEE QUITE A BIT OF FILTERED SUNSHINE.

THE BUILDING PACIFIC RIDGE WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION LATE THIS WEEK
WITH 500MB HEIGHTS INCREASING TO AROUND 585DM BY LATE FRIDAY. THIS
WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO RETURN TO SEASONAL NORMALS ON THURSDAY AND
EVEN A FEW DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL STARTING FRIDAY AND INTO THE WEEKEND.
WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED IF A FEW WARMER LOWER DESERT SPOTS TOP OUT AT
AROUND 105 ON SATURDAY AND SUNDAY WITH THE RIDGE AXIS MOVING
OVERHEAD. LONG RANGE MODELS ARE CURRENTLY IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH A
PACIFIC LOW AFFECTING MAINLY THE NORTHERN HALF OF CALIFORNIA AND THE
NORTHERN PORTION OF THE GREAT BASIN EARLY NEXT WEEK. THIS SHOULD
ALLOW FOR A BIT OF COOLING OVER OUR REGION...BUT NOTHING SUBSTANTIAL.

&&

.AVIATION... SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA INCLUDING KPHX...KIWA...AND
KSDL...AND SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA AND SOUTHWEST ARIZONA INCLUDING KIPL
AND KBLH...

JUST SOME HIGH CLOUDS MOVING IN FROM THE EASTERN PACIFIC THROUGH
TUESDAY EVENING. LIGHT/DIURNALLY DRIVEN WINDS EXPECTED AT ALL SITES.
WEATHER IMPACTS SHOULD BE MINIMAL THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING.

AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDED TAFS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY...
HIGH PRESSURE THAT WILL BE GRADUALLY BUILDING OVER THE REGION WILL
KEEP DRY CONDITIONS IN PLACE THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD...WITH
TEMPERATURES GRADUALLY WARMING INTO SATURDAY...BEFORE LEVELING OFF
FROM SUNDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. LOWER DESERT HIGHS WILL LIKELY
REACH 100 DEGREES AT MOST LOCATIONS BY FRIDAY...THEN RISE INTO THE
101-105 DEGREE RANGE FROM SATURDAY ONWARD INTO NEXT MONDAY. MINIMUM
RH VALUES ARE EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM AROUND 8 PERCENT TO THE MID
TEENS EACH DAY. DESPITE THESE LOW RH VALUES...THE COMBINATION OF
LIGHT WINDS AND FAIR-GOOD OVERNIGHT RECOVERIES WILL CONTINUE TO KEEP
FIRE DANGER LEVELS AT RELATIVELY LOW LEVELS THROUGH THE FORECAST
PERIOD.

&&

.PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AZ...NONE.
CA...NONE.
&&

$$

VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/PHOENIX

DISCUSSION...KUHLMAN
AVIATION...LEINS
FIRE WEATHER...PERCHA




000
FXUS65 KPSR 260948
AFDPSR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PHOENIX AZ
248 AM MST TUE MAY 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
DRY WEATHER ALONG WITH A WARMING TREND IS FORECAST FOR THE REMAINDER
OF THIS WEEK AND WEEKEND. A DRY WEATHER SYSTEM WILL BRING A PERIOD OF
CLOUDINESS ON WEDNESDAY...BUT THEREAFTER SKIES WILL REMAIN CLEAR TO
MOSTLY CLEAR THROUGH THE WEEKEND. AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES FOR THE
LOWER DESERTS BY FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY WILL GENERALLY TOP OUT BETWEEN
100 AND 105 DEGREES.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
WHAT YOU WOULD EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO BE ACROSS THE DESERT SOUTHWEST
WILL FINALLY COME TO FRUITION OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS AS THE PAST
COUPLE WEEKS OF DEEP PACIFIC LOWS DOMINATING THE WESTERN U.S. COMES
TO AN END. GRADUALLY OVER THE NEXT COUPLE DAYS...A FAIRLY ROBUST
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BUILD OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC AND EVENTUALLY
SHIFT INTO THE WESTERN CONUS LATE THIS WEEK. BEFORE THAT POINT...WE
WILL SEE SOMEWHAT QUASI-ZONAL WESTERLY DRY FLOW WITH A VERY WEAK
SHORTWAVE TROUGH PASSING THROUGH NORTHERN ARIZONA TODAY AND A
SOMEWHAT MORE SIGNIFICANT TROUGH PASSING ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PORTION
OF THE THE REGION ON WEDNESDAY.

HEIGHTS ALOFT HAVE BUILT UP OVER THE PAST COUPLE DAYS AND WILL
REMAIN FAIRLY CONSISTENT THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK WHILE
TEMPERATURES WARM SLIGHTLY EACH DAY. HIGHS TODAY AND WEDNESDAY WILL
REACH INTO THE LOW TO MID 90S ACROSS THE DESERTS...OR STILL A FEW
DEGREES BELOW NORMALS. A SHORTWAVE TROUGH CURRENTLY SEEN ON WATER
VAPOR AS A COMPACT CLOSED LOW CIRCULATION ROUGHLY 900 MILES WEST OF
SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA IS FORECAST TO WEAKEN OVER THE NEXT DAY OR
SO...REACHING NORTHERN BAJA WEDNESDAY MORNING. MODELS ARE IN GOOD
AGREEMENT TAKING THE ASSOCIATED PV ANOMALY MAINLY ACROSS NORTHERN
MEXICO WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT...POSSIBLY SKIRTING
THROUGH FAR SOUTHEAST ARIZONA. UPPER LEVEL RH FIELDS INDICATE ENOUGH
MOISTURE PRESENT WITH THIS SYSTEM TO BRING IN A GOOD AMOUNT OF HIGH
CLOUDS ON WEDNESDAY AND LIKELY A BRIEF PERIOD OF MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES.
THIS MAY INFLUENCE HIGH TEMPERATURES SLIGHTLY WEDNESDAY...BUT LIKELY NOT
MUCH AS MOST OF THE DAY WILL SEE QUITE A BIT OF FILTERED SUNSHINE.

THE BUILDING PACIFIC RIDGE WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION LATE THIS WEEK
WITH 500MB HEIGHTS INCREASING TO AROUND 585DM BY LATE FRIDAY. THIS
WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO RETURN TO SEASONAL NORMALS ON THURSDAY AND
EVEN A FEW DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL STARTING FRIDAY AND INTO THE WEEKEND.
WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED IF A FEW WARMER LOWER DESERT SPOTS TOP OUT AT
AROUND 105 ON SATURDAY AND SUNDAY WITH THE RIDGE AXIS MOVING
OVERHEAD. LONG RANGE MODELS ARE CURRENTLY IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH A
PACIFIC LOW AFFECTING MAINLY THE NORTHERN HALF OF CALIFORNIA AND THE
NORTHERN PORTION OF THE GREAT BASIN EARLY NEXT WEEK. THIS SHOULD
ALLOW FOR A BIT OF COOLING OVER OUR REGION...BUT NOTHING SUBSTANTIAL.

&&

.AVIATION... SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA INCLUDING KPHX...KIWA...AND
KSDL...AND SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA AND SOUTHWEST ARIZONA INCLUDING KIPL
AND KBLH...

JUST SOME HIGH CLOUDS MOVING IN FROM THE EASTERN PACIFIC THROUGH
TUESDAY EVENING. LIGHT/DIURNALLY DRIVEN WINDS EXPECTED AT ALL SITES.
WEATHER IMPACTS SHOULD BE MINIMAL THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING.

AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDED TAFS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY...
HIGH PRESSURE THAT WILL BE GRADUALLY BUILDING OVER THE REGION WILL
KEEP DRY CONDITIONS IN PLACE THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD...WITH
TEMPERATURES GRADUALLY WARMING INTO SATURDAY...BEFORE LEVELING OFF
FROM SUNDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. LOWER DESERT HIGHS WILL LIKELY
REACH 100 DEGREES AT MOST LOCATIONS BY FRIDAY...THEN RISE INTO THE
101-105 DEGREE RANGE FROM SATURDAY ONWARD INTO NEXT MONDAY. MINIMUM
RH VALUES ARE EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM AROUND 8 PERCENT TO THE MID
TEENS EACH DAY. DESPITE THESE LOW RH VALUES...THE COMBINATION OF
LIGHT WINDS AND FAIR-GOOD OVERNIGHT RECOVERIES WILL CONTINUE TO KEEP
FIRE DANGER LEVELS AT RELATIVELY LOW LEVELS THROUGH THE FORECAST
PERIOD.

&&

.PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AZ...NONE.
CA...NONE.
&&

$$

VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/PHOENIX

DISCUSSION...KUHLMAN
AVIATION...LEINS
FIRE WEATHER...PERCHA


  [top]

000
FXUS65 KTWC 260932
AFDTWC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ
230 AM MST TUE MAY 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...DRY CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
ALTHOUGH HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE WARMER THROUGH THURSDAY...THEY
WILL STILL BE BELOW NORMAL FOR LATE MAY. WARMER TEMPERATURES THIS
WEEKEND WITH HIGHS APPROACHING THE CENTURY MARK FROM TUCSON INTO THE
WESTERN DESERTS.

&&

.DISCUSSION...FLOW ALOFT OUT OF THE WEST THIS MORNING WILL TURN TO
THE SOUTHWEST LATER THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT IN ADVANCE OF
ANOTHER PACIFIC UPPER LEVEL TROF. THIS TROF WILL MOVE INTO WRN AZ ON
WEDNESDAY AND THEN ACROSS SE AZ WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY.
MOISTURE RATHER LIMITED WITH THIS TROF SO EXPECT ONLY CU BUILDUPS
OVER THE MOUNTAINS...POSSIBLY A SHOWER OR TWO IN THE WHITES...AT
THIS TIME FOR THURSDAY. WARMER HIGH TEMPERATURES NEXT THREE DAYS BUT
STILL REMAINING BELOW NORMAL FOR MOST LOCATIONS.

DRY W-NW FLOW OVER THE AREA ON FRIDAY WITH HIGHS SEVERAL DEGREES
WARMER THAN THURSDAY. TUCSON MAY SEE ITS FIRST ABOVE NORMAL HIGH
TEMPERATURE IN WELL OVER TWO WEEKS ON FRIDAY.

UPPER RIDGE WILL BE BUILDING OVER THE AREA THIS WEEKEND RESULTING IN
WARMER HIGH TEMPERATURES WITH TRIPLE DIGIT HIGHS LIKELY IN THE LOWER
DESERTS AND TUCSON FLIRTING WITH THE FIRST 100 DEGREE HIGH OF 2015
WITH SUNDAY...69%...HAVING THE BETTER SHOT THAN SATURDAY...20%. OVER
THE WEEKEND AS THE RIDGE AXIS PUSHES INTO NEW MEXICO...MOISTURE WILL
BE MOVING WEST ACROSS NEW MEXICO THANKS TO A BACK DOOR COLD FRONT.
COULD SEE THIS MOISTURE CREEP INTO THE FAR EASTERN SECTIONS LATE
SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. AT THIS TIME HAVE KEPT POPS OVER THE AZ/NM
BORDER AREAS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS BUT EASILY CAN SEE ISOLATED HIGH
BASED THUNDERSTORMS SUNDAY AND MONDAY. SOMETHING TO KEEP AN EYE ON.

OUTSIDE OF THIS FORECAST PACKAGE NEXT WEEK. GFS/ECMWF/CANADIAN
MODELS ARE STILL INDICATING THAT A TROPICAL SYSTEM WILL APPROACH THE
SOUTHERN BAJA NEXT WEEK. HOWEVER THE GFS IS THE MOST BOLDEST MODEL
ON INCREASING LOW LEVEL FLOW UP THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA AND
INCREASING PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES TO OVER AN INCH FROM TUCSON
WEST NEXT WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. STAY TUNED.

&&

.AVIATION...VALID THRU 27/12Z.
SCT-BKN CLOUDS MAINLY ABOVE 20K FT AGL THRU THE FORECAST PERIOD.
SURFACE WIND LESS THAN 10 KTS THRU 26/19Z...THEN SWLY/WLY SURFACE
WIND AT 10-15 KTS WITH SOME GUSTS TO 20-25 KTS TIL 27/03Z. AFT
27/03Z...SURFACE WIND GENERALLY LESS THAN 10 KTS. AVIATION
DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR TAF AMENDMENTS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND.
DAYTIME MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE SINGLE
DIGITS TO MIDDLE TEENS. EXPECT NORMAL DIURNAL WIND TRENDS THIS
WEEK...WITH SOME GUSTINESS DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING
HOURS DUE TO STRONG DAYTIME HEATING. WINDS WILL BE A LITTLE STRONGER
ON WEDNESDAY...ESPECIALLY EAST/SOUTHEAST OF TUCSON...OVER PORTIONS
OF GRAHAM AND COCHISE COUNTIES.

&&

.TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...YOUTUBE...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/TUCSON




000
FXUS65 KTWC 260932
AFDTWC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ
230 AM MST TUE MAY 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...DRY CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
ALTHOUGH HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE WARMER THROUGH THURSDAY...THEY
WILL STILL BE BELOW NORMAL FOR LATE MAY. WARMER TEMPERATURES THIS
WEEKEND WITH HIGHS APPROACHING THE CENTURY MARK FROM TUCSON INTO THE
WESTERN DESERTS.

&&

.DISCUSSION...FLOW ALOFT OUT OF THE WEST THIS MORNING WILL TURN TO
THE SOUTHWEST LATER THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT IN ADVANCE OF
ANOTHER PACIFIC UPPER LEVEL TROF. THIS TROF WILL MOVE INTO WRN AZ ON
WEDNESDAY AND THEN ACROSS SE AZ WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY.
MOISTURE RATHER LIMITED WITH THIS TROF SO EXPECT ONLY CU BUILDUPS
OVER THE MOUNTAINS...POSSIBLY A SHOWER OR TWO IN THE WHITES...AT
THIS TIME FOR THURSDAY. WARMER HIGH TEMPERATURES NEXT THREE DAYS BUT
STILL REMAINING BELOW NORMAL FOR MOST LOCATIONS.

DRY W-NW FLOW OVER THE AREA ON FRIDAY WITH HIGHS SEVERAL DEGREES
WARMER THAN THURSDAY. TUCSON MAY SEE ITS FIRST ABOVE NORMAL HIGH
TEMPERATURE IN WELL OVER TWO WEEKS ON FRIDAY.

UPPER RIDGE WILL BE BUILDING OVER THE AREA THIS WEEKEND RESULTING IN
WARMER HIGH TEMPERATURES WITH TRIPLE DIGIT HIGHS LIKELY IN THE LOWER
DESERTS AND TUCSON FLIRTING WITH THE FIRST 100 DEGREE HIGH OF 2015
WITH SUNDAY...69%...HAVING THE BETTER SHOT THAN SATURDAY...20%. OVER
THE WEEKEND AS THE RIDGE AXIS PUSHES INTO NEW MEXICO...MOISTURE WILL
BE MOVING WEST ACROSS NEW MEXICO THANKS TO A BACK DOOR COLD FRONT.
COULD SEE THIS MOISTURE CREEP INTO THE FAR EASTERN SECTIONS LATE
SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. AT THIS TIME HAVE KEPT POPS OVER THE AZ/NM
BORDER AREAS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS BUT EASILY CAN SEE ISOLATED HIGH
BASED THUNDERSTORMS SUNDAY AND MONDAY. SOMETHING TO KEEP AN EYE ON.

OUTSIDE OF THIS FORECAST PACKAGE NEXT WEEK. GFS/ECMWF/CANADIAN
MODELS ARE STILL INDICATING THAT A TROPICAL SYSTEM WILL APPROACH THE
SOUTHERN BAJA NEXT WEEK. HOWEVER THE GFS IS THE MOST BOLDEST MODEL
ON INCREASING LOW LEVEL FLOW UP THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA AND
INCREASING PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES TO OVER AN INCH FROM TUCSON
WEST NEXT WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. STAY TUNED.

&&

.AVIATION...VALID THRU 27/12Z.
SCT-BKN CLOUDS MAINLY ABOVE 20K FT AGL THRU THE FORECAST PERIOD.
SURFACE WIND LESS THAN 10 KTS THRU 26/19Z...THEN SWLY/WLY SURFACE
WIND AT 10-15 KTS WITH SOME GUSTS TO 20-25 KTS TIL 27/03Z. AFT
27/03Z...SURFACE WIND GENERALLY LESS THAN 10 KTS. AVIATION
DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR TAF AMENDMENTS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND.
DAYTIME MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE SINGLE
DIGITS TO MIDDLE TEENS. EXPECT NORMAL DIURNAL WIND TRENDS THIS
WEEK...WITH SOME GUSTINESS DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING
HOURS DUE TO STRONG DAYTIME HEATING. WINDS WILL BE A LITTLE STRONGER
ON WEDNESDAY...ESPECIALLY EAST/SOUTHEAST OF TUCSON...OVER PORTIONS
OF GRAHAM AND COCHISE COUNTIES.

&&

.TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...YOUTUBE...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/TUCSON




000
FXUS65 KTWC 260932
AFDTWC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ
230 AM MST TUE MAY 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...DRY CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
ALTHOUGH HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE WARMER THROUGH THURSDAY...THEY
WILL STILL BE BELOW NORMAL FOR LATE MAY. WARMER TEMPERATURES THIS
WEEKEND WITH HIGHS APPROACHING THE CENTURY MARK FROM TUCSON INTO THE
WESTERN DESERTS.

&&

.DISCUSSION...FLOW ALOFT OUT OF THE WEST THIS MORNING WILL TURN TO
THE SOUTHWEST LATER THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT IN ADVANCE OF
ANOTHER PACIFIC UPPER LEVEL TROF. THIS TROF WILL MOVE INTO WRN AZ ON
WEDNESDAY AND THEN ACROSS SE AZ WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY.
MOISTURE RATHER LIMITED WITH THIS TROF SO EXPECT ONLY CU BUILDUPS
OVER THE MOUNTAINS...POSSIBLY A SHOWER OR TWO IN THE WHITES...AT
THIS TIME FOR THURSDAY. WARMER HIGH TEMPERATURES NEXT THREE DAYS BUT
STILL REMAINING BELOW NORMAL FOR MOST LOCATIONS.

DRY W-NW FLOW OVER THE AREA ON FRIDAY WITH HIGHS SEVERAL DEGREES
WARMER THAN THURSDAY. TUCSON MAY SEE ITS FIRST ABOVE NORMAL HIGH
TEMPERATURE IN WELL OVER TWO WEEKS ON FRIDAY.

UPPER RIDGE WILL BE BUILDING OVER THE AREA THIS WEEKEND RESULTING IN
WARMER HIGH TEMPERATURES WITH TRIPLE DIGIT HIGHS LIKELY IN THE LOWER
DESERTS AND TUCSON FLIRTING WITH THE FIRST 100 DEGREE HIGH OF 2015
WITH SUNDAY...69%...HAVING THE BETTER SHOT THAN SATURDAY...20%. OVER
THE WEEKEND AS THE RIDGE AXIS PUSHES INTO NEW MEXICO...MOISTURE WILL
BE MOVING WEST ACROSS NEW MEXICO THANKS TO A BACK DOOR COLD FRONT.
COULD SEE THIS MOISTURE CREEP INTO THE FAR EASTERN SECTIONS LATE
SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. AT THIS TIME HAVE KEPT POPS OVER THE AZ/NM
BORDER AREAS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS BUT EASILY CAN SEE ISOLATED HIGH
BASED THUNDERSTORMS SUNDAY AND MONDAY. SOMETHING TO KEEP AN EYE ON.

OUTSIDE OF THIS FORECAST PACKAGE NEXT WEEK. GFS/ECMWF/CANADIAN
MODELS ARE STILL INDICATING THAT A TROPICAL SYSTEM WILL APPROACH THE
SOUTHERN BAJA NEXT WEEK. HOWEVER THE GFS IS THE MOST BOLDEST MODEL
ON INCREASING LOW LEVEL FLOW UP THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA AND
INCREASING PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES TO OVER AN INCH FROM TUCSON
WEST NEXT WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. STAY TUNED.

&&

.AVIATION...VALID THRU 27/12Z.
SCT-BKN CLOUDS MAINLY ABOVE 20K FT AGL THRU THE FORECAST PERIOD.
SURFACE WIND LESS THAN 10 KTS THRU 26/19Z...THEN SWLY/WLY SURFACE
WIND AT 10-15 KTS WITH SOME GUSTS TO 20-25 KTS TIL 27/03Z. AFT
27/03Z...SURFACE WIND GENERALLY LESS THAN 10 KTS. AVIATION
DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR TAF AMENDMENTS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND.
DAYTIME MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE SINGLE
DIGITS TO MIDDLE TEENS. EXPECT NORMAL DIURNAL WIND TRENDS THIS
WEEK...WITH SOME GUSTINESS DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING
HOURS DUE TO STRONG DAYTIME HEATING. WINDS WILL BE A LITTLE STRONGER
ON WEDNESDAY...ESPECIALLY EAST/SOUTHEAST OF TUCSON...OVER PORTIONS
OF GRAHAM AND COCHISE COUNTIES.

&&

.TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

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000
FXUS65 KTWC 260932
AFDTWC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ
230 AM MST TUE MAY 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...DRY CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
ALTHOUGH HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE WARMER THROUGH THURSDAY...THEY
WILL STILL BE BELOW NORMAL FOR LATE MAY. WARMER TEMPERATURES THIS
WEEKEND WITH HIGHS APPROACHING THE CENTURY MARK FROM TUCSON INTO THE
WESTERN DESERTS.

&&

.DISCUSSION...FLOW ALOFT OUT OF THE WEST THIS MORNING WILL TURN TO
THE SOUTHWEST LATER THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT IN ADVANCE OF
ANOTHER PACIFIC UPPER LEVEL TROF. THIS TROF WILL MOVE INTO WRN AZ ON
WEDNESDAY AND THEN ACROSS SE AZ WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY.
MOISTURE RATHER LIMITED WITH THIS TROF SO EXPECT ONLY CU BUILDUPS
OVER THE MOUNTAINS...POSSIBLY A SHOWER OR TWO IN THE WHITES...AT
THIS TIME FOR THURSDAY. WARMER HIGH TEMPERATURES NEXT THREE DAYS BUT
STILL REMAINING BELOW NORMAL FOR MOST LOCATIONS.

DRY W-NW FLOW OVER THE AREA ON FRIDAY WITH HIGHS SEVERAL DEGREES
WARMER THAN THURSDAY. TUCSON MAY SEE ITS FIRST ABOVE NORMAL HIGH
TEMPERATURE IN WELL OVER TWO WEEKS ON FRIDAY.

UPPER RIDGE WILL BE BUILDING OVER THE AREA THIS WEEKEND RESULTING IN
WARMER HIGH TEMPERATURES WITH TRIPLE DIGIT HIGHS LIKELY IN THE LOWER
DESERTS AND TUCSON FLIRTING WITH THE FIRST 100 DEGREE HIGH OF 2015
WITH SUNDAY...69%...HAVING THE BETTER SHOT THAN SATURDAY...20%. OVER
THE WEEKEND AS THE RIDGE AXIS PUSHES INTO NEW MEXICO...MOISTURE WILL
BE MOVING WEST ACROSS NEW MEXICO THANKS TO A BACK DOOR COLD FRONT.
COULD SEE THIS MOISTURE CREEP INTO THE FAR EASTERN SECTIONS LATE
SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. AT THIS TIME HAVE KEPT POPS OVER THE AZ/NM
BORDER AREAS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS BUT EASILY CAN SEE ISOLATED HIGH
BASED THUNDERSTORMS SUNDAY AND MONDAY. SOMETHING TO KEEP AN EYE ON.

OUTSIDE OF THIS FORECAST PACKAGE NEXT WEEK. GFS/ECMWF/CANADIAN
MODELS ARE STILL INDICATING THAT A TROPICAL SYSTEM WILL APPROACH THE
SOUTHERN BAJA NEXT WEEK. HOWEVER THE GFS IS THE MOST BOLDEST MODEL
ON INCREASING LOW LEVEL FLOW UP THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA AND
INCREASING PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES TO OVER AN INCH FROM TUCSON
WEST NEXT WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. STAY TUNED.

&&

.AVIATION...VALID THRU 27/12Z.
SCT-BKN CLOUDS MAINLY ABOVE 20K FT AGL THRU THE FORECAST PERIOD.
SURFACE WIND LESS THAN 10 KTS THRU 26/19Z...THEN SWLY/WLY SURFACE
WIND AT 10-15 KTS WITH SOME GUSTS TO 20-25 KTS TIL 27/03Z. AFT
27/03Z...SURFACE WIND GENERALLY LESS THAN 10 KTS. AVIATION
DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR TAF AMENDMENTS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND.
DAYTIME MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE SINGLE
DIGITS TO MIDDLE TEENS. EXPECT NORMAL DIURNAL WIND TRENDS THIS
WEEK...WITH SOME GUSTINESS DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING
HOURS DUE TO STRONG DAYTIME HEATING. WINDS WILL BE A LITTLE STRONGER
ON WEDNESDAY...ESPECIALLY EAST/SOUTHEAST OF TUCSON...OVER PORTIONS
OF GRAHAM AND COCHISE COUNTIES.

&&

.TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...YOUTUBE...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/TUCSON




000
FXUS65 KTWC 260414
AFDTWC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ
913 PM MST MON MAY 25 2015

.SYNOPSIS...DRY CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. EXPECT
NEAR NORMAL DAYTIME TEMPERATURES THROUGH FRIDAY...THEN WARMER
TEMPERATURES WITH HIGHS APPROACHING THE CENTURY MARK FROM TUCSON
INTO THE WESTERN DESERTS THIS WEEKEND.

&&

.DISCUSSION...THE CHANCE OF SHOWERS IN THE WHITE MOUNTAINS HAD
PRETTY MUCH ENDED AS SATELLITE IMAGERY WAS SHOWING SKIES CLEARING
THERE LATE THIS EVENING. CLEAR ELSEWHERE ACROSS SOUTHEAST ARIZONA.
SHORT TERM FORECAST LOOKED ON TRACK...SO NO UPDATES NECESSARY.
PLEASE REFER TO THE ADDITIONAL SECTIONS FOR MORE DETAILS.

&&

.AVIATION...VALID THRU 27/06Z.
CLEAR SKIES TO SCATTERED CLOUDS ABOVE 20K FT AGL AFTER 26/06Z AND
CONTINUING THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON. SURFACE WIND EAST AND SOUTH OF
KTUS TUESDAY AFTERNOON SWLY TO NWLY AT 12-16 KTS WITH GUSTS TO 20
KTS. OTHERWISE...SURFACE WIND LESS THAN 10 KTS. AVIATION DISCUSSION
NOT UPDATED FOR TAF AMENDMENTS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...DRY CONDITIONS WILL OCCUR INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
DAYTIME MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE SINGLE
DIGITS TO MID TEENS WITH GOOD OVERNIGHT RECOVERY. EXPECT NORMAL
DIURNAL WIND TRENDS FOR MUCH OF THIS PERIOD...WITH GUSTS DURING THE
AFTERNOON HOURS DUE TO DAYTIME HEATING. SOMEWHAT STRONGER WINDS MAY
OCCUR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY AS A WEAK DISTURBANCE MOVES ACROSS THE
AREA.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...A SHORTWAVE RIDGE WILL MOVE EWD ACROSS THE AREA
TUE...THEN FLOW ALOFT WILL BECOME SWLY TUE NIGHT INTO WED AHEAD OF
THE NEXT SHORTWAVE TROUGH THAT IS PROGGED TO BE OVER SRN
CALIFORNIA/NRN BAJA CALIFORNIA MIDDAY WED. MOISTURE MOSTLY ABOVE 500
MB WILL MOVE INTO WRN SECTIONS AS EARLY AS TONIGHT...AND THIS
MOISTURE WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE TUE INTO WED. FOR NOW...HAVE OPTED
FOR MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES TUE-WED WITH THE EXPECTATION OF MAINLY THIN
CIRRIFORM CLOUDS TO MOVE ACROSS THE AREA.

THE MID-LEVEL TROUGH AXIS WILL MOVE TO NEAR THE NEW MEXICO BORDER
AROUND MIDDAY THUR. THUS...DECREASING CLOUDS WED NIGHT AND THUR
MORNING FOLLOWED BY CLEAR SKIES THUR AFTERNOON AND THUR NIGHT. UPPER
RIDGE AXIS NEAR THE WEST COAST FRI WILL GRADUALLY MOVE EWD AND
AMPLIFY OVER THE SWRN CONUS SAT-MON. THIS PATTERN WILL MAINTAIN
PRECIP-FREE CONDITIONS UNDER CLEAR SKIES OR MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES.

HIGH TEMPS TUE-THUR WILL GENERALLY BE WITHIN A FEW DEGS OF NORMAL...
THEN ABOVE NORMAL DAYTIME TEMPS WILL PREVAIL FRI-MON. THE FIRST 100
DEG TEMPS FOR TUCSON MAY OCCUR THIS WEEKEND...WITH SUNDAY BEING THE
FAVORED DAY OF OCCURRENCE.

&&

.TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...YOUTUBE...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/TUCSON




000
FXUS65 KTWC 260414
AFDTWC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ
913 PM MST MON MAY 25 2015

.SYNOPSIS...DRY CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. EXPECT
NEAR NORMAL DAYTIME TEMPERATURES THROUGH FRIDAY...THEN WARMER
TEMPERATURES WITH HIGHS APPROACHING THE CENTURY MARK FROM TUCSON
INTO THE WESTERN DESERTS THIS WEEKEND.

&&

.DISCUSSION...THE CHANCE OF SHOWERS IN THE WHITE MOUNTAINS HAD
PRETTY MUCH ENDED AS SATELLITE IMAGERY WAS SHOWING SKIES CLEARING
THERE LATE THIS EVENING. CLEAR ELSEWHERE ACROSS SOUTHEAST ARIZONA.
SHORT TERM FORECAST LOOKED ON TRACK...SO NO UPDATES NECESSARY.
PLEASE REFER TO THE ADDITIONAL SECTIONS FOR MORE DETAILS.

&&

.AVIATION...VALID THRU 27/06Z.
CLEAR SKIES TO SCATTERED CLOUDS ABOVE 20K FT AGL AFTER 26/06Z AND
CONTINUING THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON. SURFACE WIND EAST AND SOUTH OF
KTUS TUESDAY AFTERNOON SWLY TO NWLY AT 12-16 KTS WITH GUSTS TO 20
KTS. OTHERWISE...SURFACE WIND LESS THAN 10 KTS. AVIATION DISCUSSION
NOT UPDATED FOR TAF AMENDMENTS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...DRY CONDITIONS WILL OCCUR INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
DAYTIME MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE SINGLE
DIGITS TO MID TEENS WITH GOOD OVERNIGHT RECOVERY. EXPECT NORMAL
DIURNAL WIND TRENDS FOR MUCH OF THIS PERIOD...WITH GUSTS DURING THE
AFTERNOON HOURS DUE TO DAYTIME HEATING. SOMEWHAT STRONGER WINDS MAY
OCCUR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY AS A WEAK DISTURBANCE MOVES ACROSS THE
AREA.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...A SHORTWAVE RIDGE WILL MOVE EWD ACROSS THE AREA
TUE...THEN FLOW ALOFT WILL BECOME SWLY TUE NIGHT INTO WED AHEAD OF
THE NEXT SHORTWAVE TROUGH THAT IS PROGGED TO BE OVER SRN
CALIFORNIA/NRN BAJA CALIFORNIA MIDDAY WED. MOISTURE MOSTLY ABOVE 500
MB WILL MOVE INTO WRN SECTIONS AS EARLY AS TONIGHT...AND THIS
MOISTURE WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE TUE INTO WED. FOR NOW...HAVE OPTED
FOR MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES TUE-WED WITH THE EXPECTATION OF MAINLY THIN
CIRRIFORM CLOUDS TO MOVE ACROSS THE AREA.

THE MID-LEVEL TROUGH AXIS WILL MOVE TO NEAR THE NEW MEXICO BORDER
AROUND MIDDAY THUR. THUS...DECREASING CLOUDS WED NIGHT AND THUR
MORNING FOLLOWED BY CLEAR SKIES THUR AFTERNOON AND THUR NIGHT. UPPER
RIDGE AXIS NEAR THE WEST COAST FRI WILL GRADUALLY MOVE EWD AND
AMPLIFY OVER THE SWRN CONUS SAT-MON. THIS PATTERN WILL MAINTAIN
PRECIP-FREE CONDITIONS UNDER CLEAR SKIES OR MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES.

HIGH TEMPS TUE-THUR WILL GENERALLY BE WITHIN A FEW DEGS OF NORMAL...
THEN ABOVE NORMAL DAYTIME TEMPS WILL PREVAIL FRI-MON. THE FIRST 100
DEG TEMPS FOR TUCSON MAY OCCUR THIS WEEKEND...WITH SUNDAY BEING THE
FAVORED DAY OF OCCURRENCE.

&&

.TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...YOUTUBE...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/TUCSON




000
FXUS65 KTWC 260414
AFDTWC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ
913 PM MST MON MAY 25 2015

.SYNOPSIS...DRY CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. EXPECT
NEAR NORMAL DAYTIME TEMPERATURES THROUGH FRIDAY...THEN WARMER
TEMPERATURES WITH HIGHS APPROACHING THE CENTURY MARK FROM TUCSON
INTO THE WESTERN DESERTS THIS WEEKEND.

&&

.DISCUSSION...THE CHANCE OF SHOWERS IN THE WHITE MOUNTAINS HAD
PRETTY MUCH ENDED AS SATELLITE IMAGERY WAS SHOWING SKIES CLEARING
THERE LATE THIS EVENING. CLEAR ELSEWHERE ACROSS SOUTHEAST ARIZONA.
SHORT TERM FORECAST LOOKED ON TRACK...SO NO UPDATES NECESSARY.
PLEASE REFER TO THE ADDITIONAL SECTIONS FOR MORE DETAILS.

&&

.AVIATION...VALID THRU 27/06Z.
CLEAR SKIES TO SCATTERED CLOUDS ABOVE 20K FT AGL AFTER 26/06Z AND
CONTINUING THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON. SURFACE WIND EAST AND SOUTH OF
KTUS TUESDAY AFTERNOON SWLY TO NWLY AT 12-16 KTS WITH GUSTS TO 20
KTS. OTHERWISE...SURFACE WIND LESS THAN 10 KTS. AVIATION DISCUSSION
NOT UPDATED FOR TAF AMENDMENTS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...DRY CONDITIONS WILL OCCUR INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
DAYTIME MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE SINGLE
DIGITS TO MID TEENS WITH GOOD OVERNIGHT RECOVERY. EXPECT NORMAL
DIURNAL WIND TRENDS FOR MUCH OF THIS PERIOD...WITH GUSTS DURING THE
AFTERNOON HOURS DUE TO DAYTIME HEATING. SOMEWHAT STRONGER WINDS MAY
OCCUR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY AS A WEAK DISTURBANCE MOVES ACROSS THE
AREA.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...A SHORTWAVE RIDGE WILL MOVE EWD ACROSS THE AREA
TUE...THEN FLOW ALOFT WILL BECOME SWLY TUE NIGHT INTO WED AHEAD OF
THE NEXT SHORTWAVE TROUGH THAT IS PROGGED TO BE OVER SRN
CALIFORNIA/NRN BAJA CALIFORNIA MIDDAY WED. MOISTURE MOSTLY ABOVE 500
MB WILL MOVE INTO WRN SECTIONS AS EARLY AS TONIGHT...AND THIS
MOISTURE WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE TUE INTO WED. FOR NOW...HAVE OPTED
FOR MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES TUE-WED WITH THE EXPECTATION OF MAINLY THIN
CIRRIFORM CLOUDS TO MOVE ACROSS THE AREA.

THE MID-LEVEL TROUGH AXIS WILL MOVE TO NEAR THE NEW MEXICO BORDER
AROUND MIDDAY THUR. THUS...DECREASING CLOUDS WED NIGHT AND THUR
MORNING FOLLOWED BY CLEAR SKIES THUR AFTERNOON AND THUR NIGHT. UPPER
RIDGE AXIS NEAR THE WEST COAST FRI WILL GRADUALLY MOVE EWD AND
AMPLIFY OVER THE SWRN CONUS SAT-MON. THIS PATTERN WILL MAINTAIN
PRECIP-FREE CONDITIONS UNDER CLEAR SKIES OR MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES.

HIGH TEMPS TUE-THUR WILL GENERALLY BE WITHIN A FEW DEGS OF NORMAL...
THEN ABOVE NORMAL DAYTIME TEMPS WILL PREVAIL FRI-MON. THE FIRST 100
DEG TEMPS FOR TUCSON MAY OCCUR THIS WEEKEND...WITH SUNDAY BEING THE
FAVORED DAY OF OCCURRENCE.

&&

.TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...YOUTUBE...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/TUCSON




000
FXUS65 KTWC 260414
AFDTWC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ
913 PM MST MON MAY 25 2015

.SYNOPSIS...DRY CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. EXPECT
NEAR NORMAL DAYTIME TEMPERATURES THROUGH FRIDAY...THEN WARMER
TEMPERATURES WITH HIGHS APPROACHING THE CENTURY MARK FROM TUCSON
INTO THE WESTERN DESERTS THIS WEEKEND.

&&

.DISCUSSION...THE CHANCE OF SHOWERS IN THE WHITE MOUNTAINS HAD
PRETTY MUCH ENDED AS SATELLITE IMAGERY WAS SHOWING SKIES CLEARING
THERE LATE THIS EVENING. CLEAR ELSEWHERE ACROSS SOUTHEAST ARIZONA.
SHORT TERM FORECAST LOOKED ON TRACK...SO NO UPDATES NECESSARY.
PLEASE REFER TO THE ADDITIONAL SECTIONS FOR MORE DETAILS.

&&

.AVIATION...VALID THRU 27/06Z.
CLEAR SKIES TO SCATTERED CLOUDS ABOVE 20K FT AGL AFTER 26/06Z AND
CONTINUING THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON. SURFACE WIND EAST AND SOUTH OF
KTUS TUESDAY AFTERNOON SWLY TO NWLY AT 12-16 KTS WITH GUSTS TO 20
KTS. OTHERWISE...SURFACE WIND LESS THAN 10 KTS. AVIATION DISCUSSION
NOT UPDATED FOR TAF AMENDMENTS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...DRY CONDITIONS WILL OCCUR INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
DAYTIME MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE SINGLE
DIGITS TO MID TEENS WITH GOOD OVERNIGHT RECOVERY. EXPECT NORMAL
DIURNAL WIND TRENDS FOR MUCH OF THIS PERIOD...WITH GUSTS DURING THE
AFTERNOON HOURS DUE TO DAYTIME HEATING. SOMEWHAT STRONGER WINDS MAY
OCCUR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY AS A WEAK DISTURBANCE MOVES ACROSS THE
AREA.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...A SHORTWAVE RIDGE WILL MOVE EWD ACROSS THE AREA
TUE...THEN FLOW ALOFT WILL BECOME SWLY TUE NIGHT INTO WED AHEAD OF
THE NEXT SHORTWAVE TROUGH THAT IS PROGGED TO BE OVER SRN
CALIFORNIA/NRN BAJA CALIFORNIA MIDDAY WED. MOISTURE MOSTLY ABOVE 500
MB WILL MOVE INTO WRN SECTIONS AS EARLY AS TONIGHT...AND THIS
MOISTURE WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE TUE INTO WED. FOR NOW...HAVE OPTED
FOR MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES TUE-WED WITH THE EXPECTATION OF MAINLY THIN
CIRRIFORM CLOUDS TO MOVE ACROSS THE AREA.

THE MID-LEVEL TROUGH AXIS WILL MOVE TO NEAR THE NEW MEXICO BORDER
AROUND MIDDAY THUR. THUS...DECREASING CLOUDS WED NIGHT AND THUR
MORNING FOLLOWED BY CLEAR SKIES THUR AFTERNOON AND THUR NIGHT. UPPER
RIDGE AXIS NEAR THE WEST COAST FRI WILL GRADUALLY MOVE EWD AND
AMPLIFY OVER THE SWRN CONUS SAT-MON. THIS PATTERN WILL MAINTAIN
PRECIP-FREE CONDITIONS UNDER CLEAR SKIES OR MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES.

HIGH TEMPS TUE-THUR WILL GENERALLY BE WITHIN A FEW DEGS OF NORMAL...
THEN ABOVE NORMAL DAYTIME TEMPS WILL PREVAIL FRI-MON. THE FIRST 100
DEG TEMPS FOR TUCSON MAY OCCUR THIS WEEKEND...WITH SUNDAY BEING THE
FAVORED DAY OF OCCURRENCE.

&&

.TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...YOUTUBE...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/TUCSON




000
FXUS65 KPSR 260350
AFDPSR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PHOENIX AZ
850 PM MST MON MAY 25 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
DRY WEATHER ALONG WITH A WARMING TREND IS FORECAST FOR
THE REMAINDER OF THIS WEEK AND WEEKEND. AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES ON
THE LOWER DESERTS BY FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY WILL GENERALLY WARM TO
BETWEEN 100 AND 105 DEGREES.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
MID EVENING RADAR IMAGERY REVEALS DECAYING SHOWERS ACROSS NORTHERN
ARIZONA...MUCH LIKE THIS TIME YESTERDAY. ASIDE FROM SOME DEBRIS
CLOUDS MOVING THROUGH PORTIONS OF GILA COUNTY...SKIES WERE MOSTLY
CLEAR ACROSS THE REGION AS OF 0345Z THIS EVENING. THIS HAS ALLOWED
TEMPERATURES TO DROP OFF FAIRLY QUICKLY IN THE OUTLYING DESERT AREAS
/UPPER 70S/ BUT READINGS WITHIN THE URBAN CORE OF PHOENIX WERE STILL
IN THE MID 80S.

QUICK LOOK AT THE INCOMING 00Z DETERMINISTIC GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THE
INHERITED FORECAST IS IN GREAT SHAPE. JUST GOING TO TWEAK TEMPS BASED
ON BIAS-CORRECTED GUIDANCE AND OBSERVATIONAL TRENDS. OVERALL NO MAJOR
CHANGES NECESSARY. FORECAST BEYOND TONIGHT ALSO LOOKS IN GOOD SHAPE.

&&

.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...
A WEAK DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE INTO NEW MEXICO TONIGHT...FOLLOWED BY
SHORTWAVE RIDGING AND VERY STABLE CONDITIONS ON TUESDAY.

ANOTHER WEAK SHORTWAVE TROF WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION WEDNESDAY...
HOWEVER ATMOSPHERIC HEIGHT AND THICKNESS VALUES WILL APPROACH NORMAL
MEANING ANOTHER WARM AFTERNOON OF NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES.
WEDNESDAYS AIRMASS WILL BE DRIER...BUT MODELED SOUNDINGS OVER THE
WHITE MOUNTAINS SUPPORT PERHAPS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF LATE AFTERNOON
THUNDERSTORMS JUST OUTSIDE OUR SOUTHERN GILA COUNTY ZONE 24.

THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY...A HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO
BUILD INTO THE REGION THIS PERIOD SUPPORTING DRY AND HOT WEATHER.
AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES ON THE LOWER DESERTS FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY
WILL WARM INTO THE 100 TO 105 DEGREE RANGE.

&&

.AVIATION... SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA INCLUDING KPHX...KIWA...AND
KSDL...AND SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA AND SOUTHWEST ARIZONA INCLUDING KIPL
AND KBLH...

JUST SOME HIGH CLOUDS MOVING IN FROM THE EASTERN PACIFIC THROUGH
TUESDAY EVENING. LIGHT/DIURNALLY DRIVEN WINDS EXPECTED AT ALL SITES.
WEATHER IMPACTS SHOULD BE MINIMAL THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING.

AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDED TAFS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY...
HIGH PRESSURE THAT WILL BE GRADUALLY BUILDING OVER THE REGION WILL
KEEP DRY CONDITIONS IN PLACE THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD...WITH
TEMPERATURES GRADUALLY WARMING INTO SATURDAY...BEFORE LEVELING OFF
FROM SUNDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. LOWER DESERT HIGHS WILL LIKELY
REACH 100 DEGREES AT MOST LOCATIONS BY FRIDAY...THEN RISE INTO THE
101-105 DEGREE RANGE FROM SATURDAY ONWARD INTO NEXT MONDAY. MINIMUM
RH VALUES ARE EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM AROUND 8 PERCENT TO THE MID
TEENS EACH DAY. DESPITE THESE LOW RH VALUES...THE COMBINATION OF
LIGHT WINDS AND FAIR-GOOD OVERNIGHT RECOVERIES WILL CONTINUE TO KEEP
FIRE DANGER LEVELS AT RELATIVELY LOW LEVELS THROUGH THE FORECAST
PERIOD.

&&

.PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AZ...NONE.
CA...NONE.
&&

$$

VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/PHOENIX

DISCUSSION...LEINS/VASQUEZ
AVIATION...LEINS
FIRE WEATHER...PERCHA




000
FXUS65 KPSR 260350
AFDPSR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PHOENIX AZ
850 PM MST MON MAY 25 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
DRY WEATHER ALONG WITH A WARMING TREND IS FORECAST FOR
THE REMAINDER OF THIS WEEK AND WEEKEND. AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES ON
THE LOWER DESERTS BY FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY WILL GENERALLY WARM TO
BETWEEN 100 AND 105 DEGREES.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
MID EVENING RADAR IMAGERY REVEALS DECAYING SHOWERS ACROSS NORTHERN
ARIZONA...MUCH LIKE THIS TIME YESTERDAY. ASIDE FROM SOME DEBRIS
CLOUDS MOVING THROUGH PORTIONS OF GILA COUNTY...SKIES WERE MOSTLY
CLEAR ACROSS THE REGION AS OF 0345Z THIS EVENING. THIS HAS ALLOWED
TEMPERATURES TO DROP OFF FAIRLY QUICKLY IN THE OUTLYING DESERT AREAS
/UPPER 70S/ BUT READINGS WITHIN THE URBAN CORE OF PHOENIX WERE STILL
IN THE MID 80S.

QUICK LOOK AT THE INCOMING 00Z DETERMINISTIC GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THE
INHERITED FORECAST IS IN GREAT SHAPE. JUST GOING TO TWEAK TEMPS BASED
ON BIAS-CORRECTED GUIDANCE AND OBSERVATIONAL TRENDS. OVERALL NO MAJOR
CHANGES NECESSARY. FORECAST BEYOND TONIGHT ALSO LOOKS IN GOOD SHAPE.

&&

.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...
A WEAK DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE INTO NEW MEXICO TONIGHT...FOLLOWED BY
SHORTWAVE RIDGING AND VERY STABLE CONDITIONS ON TUESDAY.

ANOTHER WEAK SHORTWAVE TROF WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION WEDNESDAY...
HOWEVER ATMOSPHERIC HEIGHT AND THICKNESS VALUES WILL APPROACH NORMAL
MEANING ANOTHER WARM AFTERNOON OF NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES.
WEDNESDAYS AIRMASS WILL BE DRIER...BUT MODELED SOUNDINGS OVER THE
WHITE MOUNTAINS SUPPORT PERHAPS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF LATE AFTERNOON
THUNDERSTORMS JUST OUTSIDE OUR SOUTHERN GILA COUNTY ZONE 24.

THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY...A HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO
BUILD INTO THE REGION THIS PERIOD SUPPORTING DRY AND HOT WEATHER.
AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES ON THE LOWER DESERTS FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY
WILL WARM INTO THE 100 TO 105 DEGREE RANGE.

&&

.AVIATION... SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA INCLUDING KPHX...KIWA...AND
KSDL...AND SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA AND SOUTHWEST ARIZONA INCLUDING KIPL
AND KBLH...

JUST SOME HIGH CLOUDS MOVING IN FROM THE EASTERN PACIFIC THROUGH
TUESDAY EVENING. LIGHT/DIURNALLY DRIVEN WINDS EXPECTED AT ALL SITES.
WEATHER IMPACTS SHOULD BE MINIMAL THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING.

AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDED TAFS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY...
HIGH PRESSURE THAT WILL BE GRADUALLY BUILDING OVER THE REGION WILL
KEEP DRY CONDITIONS IN PLACE THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD...WITH
TEMPERATURES GRADUALLY WARMING INTO SATURDAY...BEFORE LEVELING OFF
FROM SUNDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. LOWER DESERT HIGHS WILL LIKELY
REACH 100 DEGREES AT MOST LOCATIONS BY FRIDAY...THEN RISE INTO THE
101-105 DEGREE RANGE FROM SATURDAY ONWARD INTO NEXT MONDAY. MINIMUM
RH VALUES ARE EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM AROUND 8 PERCENT TO THE MID
TEENS EACH DAY. DESPITE THESE LOW RH VALUES...THE COMBINATION OF
LIGHT WINDS AND FAIR-GOOD OVERNIGHT RECOVERIES WILL CONTINUE TO KEEP
FIRE DANGER LEVELS AT RELATIVELY LOW LEVELS THROUGH THE FORECAST
PERIOD.

&&

.PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AZ...NONE.
CA...NONE.
&&

$$

VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/PHOENIX

DISCUSSION...LEINS/VASQUEZ
AVIATION...LEINS
FIRE WEATHER...PERCHA



000
FXUS65 KFGZ 260315
AFDFGZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ
815 PM MST MON MAY 25 2015

.SYNOPSIS...A WEAK WEATHER SYSTEM WILL MOVE EAST OF ARIZONA
TONIGHT  AND WILL CONTINUE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS THIS  EVENING. THE WEATHER PATTERN WILL GRADUALLY
SHIFT TO WARMER AND DRIER CONDITIONS TUESDAY THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...A FEW SHOWERS WITH ISOLATED THUNDER CONTINUE THIS
EVENING FROM THE LITTLE COLORADO RIVER VALLEY EAST TO THE NEW
MEXICO BORDER. SHOWERS HAVE BEEN DECREASING IN COVERAGE AND
INTENSITY AND ARE EXPECTED TO MOSTLY DISSIPATE BY MIDNIGHT. MADE
ONLY MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO PRECIPITATION/CLOUD COVER FORECASTS FOR
THE REST OF THE EVENING WITH NO OTHER UPDATES NEEDED.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION /330 PM MST/...SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS WILL  CONTINUE THIS EVENING BEFORE DIMINISHING
OVERNIGHT. THE WEATHER  DISTURBANCE RESPONSIBLE FOR THIS ACTIVITY
WILL MOVE INTO NEW MEXICO TONIGHT.

ANOTHER WEATHER DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE THROUGH UTAH ON TUESDAY
BRINGING ENOUGH MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY TO FAR NORTHERN ARIZONA
FOR A FEW SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS ON TUESDAY. THIS WILL MAINLY BE
FROM THE KAIBAB PLATEAU TO WINDOW ROCK AND NORTHWARD.

GENERAL TROUGHING WILL REMAIN OVER THE STATE...WITH RISING HEIGHTS
AND WARMING TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE WEEK. IT LOOKS LIKE ENOUGH
MOISTURE WILL LINGER FOR A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS NEAR THE
ARIZONA/UTAH BORDER AND THE FOUR CORNERS REGION THROUGH THURSDAY.
AN  ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM IS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION. MODELS IN
FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT IN SHOWING HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING OVER
ARIZONA STARTING FRIDAY AND FOR THE COMING WEEKEND. AT THIS TIME
IT LOOKS LIKE DRY CONDITIONS AND THE WARMEST TEMPERATURES SO FAR
THIS YEAR ARE HEADED OUR WAY.

&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 06Z PACKAGE...ISOLATED -SHRA/-TSRA THIS
EVENING EAST OF A TUBA CITY TO PAYSON LINE WITH BRIEF GUSTY WINDS
AND REDUCED VIS POSSIBLE. ELSEWHERE AND OTHERWISE...EXPECT VFR
CONDITIONS. ISOLATED -TSRA POSSIBLE TUESDAY AFTERNOON ALONG THE
UTAH BORDER. SFC WINDS TUESDAY AFTERNOON SW 10-20KT. AVIATION
DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR TAF AMENDMENTS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS TO
CONTINUE THROUGH MIDNIGHT ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL AZ BEFORE
DIMINISHING. ON TUESDAY...WARMER AND MUCH DRIER CONDITIONS DEVELOP
AS THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVES AWAY FROM ARIZONA. A SLIGHT CHANCE
OF A HIGH-BASED THUNDERSTORM WILL LINGER ALONG THE AZ/UT BORDER.

WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY... DRY WEATHER WITH A WARMING TREND ARE
IN STORE STARTING WEDNESDAY. WINDS WILL REMAIN ON THE LIGHT
SIDE...GENERALLY 15 MPH OR LESS.

&&

.FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC...MCS/MAS
AVIATION...MCS
FIRE WEATHER...DL




000
FXUS65 KFGZ 260315
AFDFGZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ
815 PM MST MON MAY 25 2015

.SYNOPSIS...A WEAK WEATHER SYSTEM WILL MOVE EAST OF ARIZONA
TONIGHT  AND WILL CONTINUE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS THIS  EVENING. THE WEATHER PATTERN WILL GRADUALLY
SHIFT TO WARMER AND DRIER CONDITIONS TUESDAY THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...A FEW SHOWERS WITH ISOLATED THUNDER CONTINUE THIS
EVENING FROM THE LITTLE COLORADO RIVER VALLEY EAST TO THE NEW
MEXICO BORDER. SHOWERS HAVE BEEN DECREASING IN COVERAGE AND
INTENSITY AND ARE EXPECTED TO MOSTLY DISSIPATE BY MIDNIGHT. MADE
ONLY MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO PRECIPITATION/CLOUD COVER FORECASTS FOR
THE REST OF THE EVENING WITH NO OTHER UPDATES NEEDED.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION /330 PM MST/...SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS WILL  CONTINUE THIS EVENING BEFORE DIMINISHING
OVERNIGHT. THE WEATHER  DISTURBANCE RESPONSIBLE FOR THIS ACTIVITY
WILL MOVE INTO NEW MEXICO TONIGHT.

ANOTHER WEATHER DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE THROUGH UTAH ON TUESDAY
BRINGING ENOUGH MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY TO FAR NORTHERN ARIZONA
FOR A FEW SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS ON TUESDAY. THIS WILL MAINLY BE
FROM THE KAIBAB PLATEAU TO WINDOW ROCK AND NORTHWARD.

GENERAL TROUGHING WILL REMAIN OVER THE STATE...WITH RISING HEIGHTS
AND WARMING TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE WEEK. IT LOOKS LIKE ENOUGH
MOISTURE WILL LINGER FOR A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS NEAR THE
ARIZONA/UTAH BORDER AND THE FOUR CORNERS REGION THROUGH THURSDAY.
AN  ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM IS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION. MODELS IN
FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT IN SHOWING HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING OVER
ARIZONA STARTING FRIDAY AND FOR THE COMING WEEKEND. AT THIS TIME
IT LOOKS LIKE DRY CONDITIONS AND THE WARMEST TEMPERATURES SO FAR
THIS YEAR ARE HEADED OUR WAY.

&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 06Z PACKAGE...ISOLATED -SHRA/-TSRA THIS
EVENING EAST OF A TUBA CITY TO PAYSON LINE WITH BRIEF GUSTY WINDS
AND REDUCED VIS POSSIBLE. ELSEWHERE AND OTHERWISE...EXPECT VFR
CONDITIONS. ISOLATED -TSRA POSSIBLE TUESDAY AFTERNOON ALONG THE
UTAH BORDER. SFC WINDS TUESDAY AFTERNOON SW 10-20KT. AVIATION
DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR TAF AMENDMENTS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS TO
CONTINUE THROUGH MIDNIGHT ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL AZ BEFORE
DIMINISHING. ON TUESDAY...WARMER AND MUCH DRIER CONDITIONS DEVELOP
AS THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVES AWAY FROM ARIZONA. A SLIGHT CHANCE
OF A HIGH-BASED THUNDERSTORM WILL LINGER ALONG THE AZ/UT BORDER.

WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY... DRY WEATHER WITH A WARMING TREND ARE
IN STORE STARTING WEDNESDAY. WINDS WILL REMAIN ON THE LIGHT
SIDE...GENERALLY 15 MPH OR LESS.

&&

.FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC...MCS/MAS
AVIATION...MCS
FIRE WEATHER...DL




000
FXUS65 KFGZ 260315
AFDFGZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ
815 PM MST MON MAY 25 2015

.SYNOPSIS...A WEAK WEATHER SYSTEM WILL MOVE EAST OF ARIZONA
TONIGHT  AND WILL CONTINUE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS THIS  EVENING. THE WEATHER PATTERN WILL GRADUALLY
SHIFT TO WARMER AND DRIER CONDITIONS TUESDAY THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...A FEW SHOWERS WITH ISOLATED THUNDER CONTINUE THIS
EVENING FROM THE LITTLE COLORADO RIVER VALLEY EAST TO THE NEW
MEXICO BORDER. SHOWERS HAVE BEEN DECREASING IN COVERAGE AND
INTENSITY AND ARE EXPECTED TO MOSTLY DISSIPATE BY MIDNIGHT. MADE
ONLY MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO PRECIPITATION/CLOUD COVER FORECASTS FOR
THE REST OF THE EVENING WITH NO OTHER UPDATES NEEDED.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION /330 PM MST/...SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS WILL  CONTINUE THIS EVENING BEFORE DIMINISHING
OVERNIGHT. THE WEATHER  DISTURBANCE RESPONSIBLE FOR THIS ACTIVITY
WILL MOVE INTO NEW MEXICO TONIGHT.

ANOTHER WEATHER DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE THROUGH UTAH ON TUESDAY
BRINGING ENOUGH MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY TO FAR NORTHERN ARIZONA
FOR A FEW SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS ON TUESDAY. THIS WILL MAINLY BE
FROM THE KAIBAB PLATEAU TO WINDOW ROCK AND NORTHWARD.

GENERAL TROUGHING WILL REMAIN OVER THE STATE...WITH RISING HEIGHTS
AND WARMING TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE WEEK. IT LOOKS LIKE ENOUGH
MOISTURE WILL LINGER FOR A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS NEAR THE
ARIZONA/UTAH BORDER AND THE FOUR CORNERS REGION THROUGH THURSDAY.
AN  ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM IS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION. MODELS IN
FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT IN SHOWING HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING OVER
ARIZONA STARTING FRIDAY AND FOR THE COMING WEEKEND. AT THIS TIME
IT LOOKS LIKE DRY CONDITIONS AND THE WARMEST TEMPERATURES SO FAR
THIS YEAR ARE HEADED OUR WAY.

&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 06Z PACKAGE...ISOLATED -SHRA/-TSRA THIS
EVENING EAST OF A TUBA CITY TO PAYSON LINE WITH BRIEF GUSTY WINDS
AND REDUCED VIS POSSIBLE. ELSEWHERE AND OTHERWISE...EXPECT VFR
CONDITIONS. ISOLATED -TSRA POSSIBLE TUESDAY AFTERNOON ALONG THE
UTAH BORDER. SFC WINDS TUESDAY AFTERNOON SW 10-20KT. AVIATION
DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR TAF AMENDMENTS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS TO
CONTINUE THROUGH MIDNIGHT ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL AZ BEFORE
DIMINISHING. ON TUESDAY...WARMER AND MUCH DRIER CONDITIONS DEVELOP
AS THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVES AWAY FROM ARIZONA. A SLIGHT CHANCE
OF A HIGH-BASED THUNDERSTORM WILL LINGER ALONG THE AZ/UT BORDER.

WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY... DRY WEATHER WITH A WARMING TREND ARE
IN STORE STARTING WEDNESDAY. WINDS WILL REMAIN ON THE LIGHT
SIDE...GENERALLY 15 MPH OR LESS.

&&

.FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC...MCS/MAS
AVIATION...MCS
FIRE WEATHER...DL




000
FXUS65 KFGZ 260315
AFDFGZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ
815 PM MST MON MAY 25 2015

.SYNOPSIS...A WEAK WEATHER SYSTEM WILL MOVE EAST OF ARIZONA
TONIGHT  AND WILL CONTINUE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS THIS  EVENING. THE WEATHER PATTERN WILL GRADUALLY
SHIFT TO WARMER AND DRIER CONDITIONS TUESDAY THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...A FEW SHOWERS WITH ISOLATED THUNDER CONTINUE THIS
EVENING FROM THE LITTLE COLORADO RIVER VALLEY EAST TO THE NEW
MEXICO BORDER. SHOWERS HAVE BEEN DECREASING IN COVERAGE AND
INTENSITY AND ARE EXPECTED TO MOSTLY DISSIPATE BY MIDNIGHT. MADE
ONLY MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO PRECIPITATION/CLOUD COVER FORECASTS FOR
THE REST OF THE EVENING WITH NO OTHER UPDATES NEEDED.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION /330 PM MST/...SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS WILL  CONTINUE THIS EVENING BEFORE DIMINISHING
OVERNIGHT. THE WEATHER  DISTURBANCE RESPONSIBLE FOR THIS ACTIVITY
WILL MOVE INTO NEW MEXICO TONIGHT.

ANOTHER WEATHER DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE THROUGH UTAH ON TUESDAY
BRINGING ENOUGH MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY TO FAR NORTHERN ARIZONA
FOR A FEW SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS ON TUESDAY. THIS WILL MAINLY BE
FROM THE KAIBAB PLATEAU TO WINDOW ROCK AND NORTHWARD.

GENERAL TROUGHING WILL REMAIN OVER THE STATE...WITH RISING HEIGHTS
AND WARMING TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE WEEK. IT LOOKS LIKE ENOUGH
MOISTURE WILL LINGER FOR A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS NEAR THE
ARIZONA/UTAH BORDER AND THE FOUR CORNERS REGION THROUGH THURSDAY.
AN  ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM IS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION. MODELS IN
FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT IN SHOWING HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING OVER
ARIZONA STARTING FRIDAY AND FOR THE COMING WEEKEND. AT THIS TIME
IT LOOKS LIKE DRY CONDITIONS AND THE WARMEST TEMPERATURES SO FAR
THIS YEAR ARE HEADED OUR WAY.

&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 06Z PACKAGE...ISOLATED -SHRA/-TSRA THIS
EVENING EAST OF A TUBA CITY TO PAYSON LINE WITH BRIEF GUSTY WINDS
AND REDUCED VIS POSSIBLE. ELSEWHERE AND OTHERWISE...EXPECT VFR
CONDITIONS. ISOLATED -TSRA POSSIBLE TUESDAY AFTERNOON ALONG THE
UTAH BORDER. SFC WINDS TUESDAY AFTERNOON SW 10-20KT. AVIATION
DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR TAF AMENDMENTS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS TO
CONTINUE THROUGH MIDNIGHT ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL AZ BEFORE
DIMINISHING. ON TUESDAY...WARMER AND MUCH DRIER CONDITIONS DEVELOP
AS THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVES AWAY FROM ARIZONA. A SLIGHT CHANCE
OF A HIGH-BASED THUNDERSTORM WILL LINGER ALONG THE AZ/UT BORDER.

WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY... DRY WEATHER WITH A WARMING TREND ARE
IN STORE STARTING WEDNESDAY. WINDS WILL REMAIN ON THE LIGHT
SIDE...GENERALLY 15 MPH OR LESS.

&&

.FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC...MCS/MAS
AVIATION...MCS
FIRE WEATHER...DL




000
FXUS65 KTWC 252230
AFDTWC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ
330 PM MST MON MAY 25 2015

.SYNOPSIS...THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ACROSS THE WHITE MOUNTAINS THIS EVENING. OTHERWISE...DRY CONDITIONS
WILL PREVAIL INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. EXPECT NEAR NORMAL DAYTIME
TEMPERATURES THROUGH FRIDAY...THEN WARMER TEMPERATURES WITH HIGHS
APPROACHING THE CENTURY MARK FROM TUCSON INTO THE WESTERN DESERTS
THIS WEEKEND.

&&

.DISCUSSION...MID-LEVEL TROUGH AXIS EXTENDED FROM SE WYOMING SWWD
INTO NORTH CENTRAL ARIZONA AT THIS TIME. THERE IS ENOUGH MOISTURE
AND INSTABILITY AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM TO SUPPORT A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THIS EVENING ACROSS THE WHITE MOUNTAINS.
ANY SHOWERS/TSTMS WILL END BY MIDNIGHT AS THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES
EWD INTO NEW MEXICO.

A SHORTWAVE RIDGE WILL MOVE EWD ACROSS THE AREA TUE...THEN FLOW
ALOFT WILL BECOME SWLY TUE NIGHT INTO WED AHEAD OF THE NEXT
SHORTWAVE TROUGH THAT IS PROGGED TO BE OVER SRN CALIFORNIA/NRN BAJA
CALIFORNIA MIDDAY WED. MOISTURE MOSTLY ABOVE 500 MB WILL MOVE INTO
WRN SECTIONS AS EARLY AS TONIGHT...AND THIS MOISTURE WILL GRADUALLY
INCREASE TUE INTO WED. FOR NOW...HAVE OPTED FOR MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES
TUE-WED WITH THE EXPECTATION OF MAINLY THIN CIRRIFORM CLOUDS TO MOVE
ACROSS THE AREA.

THE MID-LEVEL TROUGH AXIS WILL MOVE TO NEAR THE NEW MEXICO BORDER
AROUND MIDDAY THUR. THUS...DECREASING CLOUDS WED NIGHT AND THUR
MORNING FOLLOWED BY CLEAR SKIES THUR AFTERNOON AND THUR NIGHT. UPPER
RIDGE AXIS NEAR THE WEST COAST FRI WILL GRADUALLY MOVE EWD AND
AMPLIFY OVER THE SWRN CONUS SAT-MON. THIS PATTERN WILL MAINTAIN
PRECIP-FREE CONDITIONS UNDER CLEAR SKIES OR MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES.

HIGH TEMPS TUE-THUR WILL GENERALLY BE WITHIN A FEW DEGS OF NORMAL...
THEN ABOVE NORMAL DAYTIME TEMPS WILL PREVAIL FRI-MON. THE FIRST 100
DEG TEMPS FOR TUCSON MAY OCCUR THIS WEEKEND...WITH SUNDAY BEING THE
FAVORED DAY OF OCCURRENCE.

&&

.AVIATION...VALID THRU 27/00Z.
ISOLATED -TSRA/-SHRA ACROSS THE WHITE MOUNTAINS NE OF KSAD ENDING
AROUND 04Z-06Z TUESDAY. OTHERWISE...A FEW TO SCATTERED CLOUDS AT 8-
12K FT AGL THIS EVENING...THEN CLEAR SKIES TO SCATTERED CLOUDS ABOVE
20K FT AGL AFTER 26/06Z AND CONTINUING THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON.
SURFACE WIND EAST AND SOUTH OF KTUS EARLY THIS EVENING AND TUESDAY
AFTERNOON SWLY TO NWLY AT 12-16 KTS WITH GUSTS TO 20 KTS.
OTHERWISE...SURFACE WIND LESS THAN 10 KTS. AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT
UPDATED FOR TAF AMENDMENTS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS ACROSS THE WHITE
MOUNTAINS THIS EVENING. OTHERWISE...DRY CONDITIONS WILL OCCUR INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK. DAYTIME MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY WILL GENERALLY BE
IN THE SINGLE DIGITS TO MID TEENS WITH GOOD OVERNIGHT RECOVERY.
EXPECT NORMAL DIURNAL WIND TRENDS FOR MUCH OF THIS PERIOD...WITH
GUSTS DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS DUE TO DAYTIME HEATING. SOMEWHAT
STRONGER WINDS MAY OCCUR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY AS A WEAK
DISTURBANCE MOVES ACROSS THE AREA.

&&

.TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...YOUTUBE...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/TUCSON

FRANCIS



000
FXUS65 KTWC 252230
AFDTWC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ
330 PM MST MON MAY 25 2015

.SYNOPSIS...THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ACROSS THE WHITE MOUNTAINS THIS EVENING. OTHERWISE...DRY CONDITIONS
WILL PREVAIL INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. EXPECT NEAR NORMAL DAYTIME
TEMPERATURES THROUGH FRIDAY...THEN WARMER TEMPERATURES WITH HIGHS
APPROACHING THE CENTURY MARK FROM TUCSON INTO THE WESTERN DESERTS
THIS WEEKEND.

&&

.DISCUSSION...MID-LEVEL TROUGH AXIS EXTENDED FROM SE WYOMING SWWD
INTO NORTH CENTRAL ARIZONA AT THIS TIME. THERE IS ENOUGH MOISTURE
AND INSTABILITY AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM TO SUPPORT A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THIS EVENING ACROSS THE WHITE MOUNTAINS.
ANY SHOWERS/TSTMS WILL END BY MIDNIGHT AS THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES
EWD INTO NEW MEXICO.

A SHORTWAVE RIDGE WILL MOVE EWD ACROSS THE AREA TUE...THEN FLOW
ALOFT WILL BECOME SWLY TUE NIGHT INTO WED AHEAD OF THE NEXT
SHORTWAVE TROUGH THAT IS PROGGED TO BE OVER SRN CALIFORNIA/NRN BAJA
CALIFORNIA MIDDAY WED. MOISTURE MOSTLY ABOVE 500 MB WILL MOVE INTO
WRN SECTIONS AS EARLY AS TONIGHT...AND THIS MOISTURE WILL GRADUALLY
INCREASE TUE INTO WED. FOR NOW...HAVE OPTED FOR MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES
TUE-WED WITH THE EXPECTATION OF MAINLY THIN CIRRIFORM CLOUDS TO MOVE
ACROSS THE AREA.

THE MID-LEVEL TROUGH AXIS WILL MOVE TO NEAR THE NEW MEXICO BORDER
AROUND MIDDAY THUR. THUS...DECREASING CLOUDS WED NIGHT AND THUR
MORNING FOLLOWED BY CLEAR SKIES THUR AFTERNOON AND THUR NIGHT. UPPER
RIDGE AXIS NEAR THE WEST COAST FRI WILL GRADUALLY MOVE EWD AND
AMPLIFY OVER THE SWRN CONUS SAT-MON. THIS PATTERN WILL MAINTAIN
PRECIP-FREE CONDITIONS UNDER CLEAR SKIES OR MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES.

HIGH TEMPS TUE-THUR WILL GENERALLY BE WITHIN A FEW DEGS OF NORMAL...
THEN ABOVE NORMAL DAYTIME TEMPS WILL PREVAIL FRI-MON. THE FIRST 100
DEG TEMPS FOR TUCSON MAY OCCUR THIS WEEKEND...WITH SUNDAY BEING THE
FAVORED DAY OF OCCURRENCE.

&&

.AVIATION...VALID THRU 27/00Z.
ISOLATED -TSRA/-SHRA ACROSS THE WHITE MOUNTAINS NE OF KSAD ENDING
AROUND 04Z-06Z TUESDAY. OTHERWISE...A FEW TO SCATTERED CLOUDS AT 8-
12K FT AGL THIS EVENING...THEN CLEAR SKIES TO SCATTERED CLOUDS ABOVE
20K FT AGL AFTER 26/06Z AND CONTINUING THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON.
SURFACE WIND EAST AND SOUTH OF KTUS EARLY THIS EVENING AND TUESDAY
AFTERNOON SWLY TO NWLY AT 12-16 KTS WITH GUSTS TO 20 KTS.
OTHERWISE...SURFACE WIND LESS THAN 10 KTS. AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT
UPDATED FOR TAF AMENDMENTS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS ACROSS THE WHITE
MOUNTAINS THIS EVENING. OTHERWISE...DRY CONDITIONS WILL OCCUR INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK. DAYTIME MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY WILL GENERALLY BE
IN THE SINGLE DIGITS TO MID TEENS WITH GOOD OVERNIGHT RECOVERY.
EXPECT NORMAL DIURNAL WIND TRENDS FOR MUCH OF THIS PERIOD...WITH
GUSTS DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS DUE TO DAYTIME HEATING. SOMEWHAT
STRONGER WINDS MAY OCCUR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY AS A WEAK
DISTURBANCE MOVES ACROSS THE AREA.

&&

.TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...YOUTUBE...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/TUCSON

FRANCIS




000
FXUS65 KFGZ 252230
AFDFGZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ
330 PM MST MON MAY 25 2015

.SYNOPSIS...A WEAK WEATHER SYSTEM WILL MOVE EAST OF ARIZONA TONIGHT
AND WILL CONTINUE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS THIS
EVENING. THE WEATHER PATTERN WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT TO WARMER AND
DRIER CONDITIONS ON TUESDAY AND THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL
CONTINUE THIS EVENING BEFORE DIMINISHING OVERNIGHT. THE WEATHER
DISTURBANCE RESPONSIBLE FOR THIS ACTIVITY WILL MOVE INTO NEW MEXICO
TONIGHT.

ANOTHER WEATHER DISTURABANCE WILL MOVE THROUGH UTAH ON TUESDAY
BRINGING ENOUGH MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY TO FAR NORTHERN ARIZONA FOR
A FEW SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS ON TUESDAY. THIS WILL MAINLY FROM THE
KIABAB PLATEAU TO WINDOW ROCK AND NORTHWARD.

GENERAL TROUGHING WILL REMAIN OVER THE STATE...WITH RISING HEIGHTS
AND WARMING TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE WEEK. IT LOOKS LIKE ENOUGH
MOISTURE WILL LINGER FOR A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS NEAR THE
ARIZONA/UTAH BORDER AND THE FOUR CORNERS REGION THROUGH THURSDAY. AN
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM IS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION. MODELS IN FAIRLY
GOOD AGREEMENT IN SHOWING HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING OVER ARIZONA
STARTING FRIDAY AND FOR THE COMING WEEKEND. AT THIS TIME IT LOOKS
LIKE DRY CONDITIONS AND THE WARMEST TEMPERATURES SO FAR THIS
YEAR ARE HEADED OUR WAY.

&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 00Z PACKAGE...SCATTERED SHRA AND ISOLATED TSRA
TO CONTINUE SOUTH OF A SUPAI TO WINDOW ROCK LINE THROUGH 06Z BEFORE
DIMINISHING. MVFR AND BRIEF IFR CONDITIONS WILL ACCOMPANY THE
HEAVIER SHOWERS. ELSEWHERE AND OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH
17Z TUES. ISOLD TSTORMS POSSIBLE TUESDAY AFTERNOON ALONG THE UTAH
BORDER. SFC WINDS TUES AFTERNOON SW 10-20KT. AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT
UPDATED FOR TAF AMENDMENTS. &&

.FIRE WEATHER...SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS TO
CONTINUE THROUGH MIDNIGHT ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL AZ BEFORE
DIMINISHING. ON TUESDAY...WARMER AND MUCH DRIER CONDITIONS DEVELOP
AS THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVES AWAY FROM ARIZONA. A SLIGHT CHANCE
OF A HIGH-BASED THUNDERSTORM WILL LINGER ALONG THE AZ/UT BORDER.

WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY... DRY WEATHER WITH A WARMING TREND ARE
IN STORE STARTING WEDNESDAY. WINDS WILL REMAIN ON THE LIGHT
SIDE...GENERALLY 15 MPH OR LESS.

&&

.FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC...MAS
AVIATION...DL
FIRE WEATHER...DL



000
FXUS65 KFGZ 252230
AFDFGZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ
330 PM MST MON MAY 25 2015

.SYNOPSIS...A WEAK WEATHER SYSTEM WILL MOVE EAST OF ARIZONA TONIGHT
AND WILL CONTINUE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS THIS
EVENING. THE WEATHER PATTERN WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT TO WARMER AND
DRIER CONDITIONS ON TUESDAY AND THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL
CONTINUE THIS EVENING BEFORE DIMINISHING OVERNIGHT. THE WEATHER
DISTURBANCE RESPONSIBLE FOR THIS ACTIVITY WILL MOVE INTO NEW MEXICO
TONIGHT.

ANOTHER WEATHER DISTURABANCE WILL MOVE THROUGH UTAH ON TUESDAY
BRINGING ENOUGH MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY TO FAR NORTHERN ARIZONA FOR
A FEW SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS ON TUESDAY. THIS WILL MAINLY FROM THE
KIABAB PLATEAU TO WINDOW ROCK AND NORTHWARD.

GENERAL TROUGHING WILL REMAIN OVER THE STATE...WITH RISING HEIGHTS
AND WARMING TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE WEEK. IT LOOKS LIKE ENOUGH
MOISTURE WILL LINGER FOR A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS NEAR THE
ARIZONA/UTAH BORDER AND THE FOUR CORNERS REGION THROUGH THURSDAY. AN
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM IS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION. MODELS IN FAIRLY
GOOD AGREEMENT IN SHOWING HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING OVER ARIZONA
STARTING FRIDAY AND FOR THE COMING WEEKEND. AT THIS TIME IT LOOKS
LIKE DRY CONDITIONS AND THE WARMEST TEMPERATURES SO FAR THIS
YEAR ARE HEADED OUR WAY.

&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 00Z PACKAGE...SCATTERED SHRA AND ISOLATED TSRA
TO CONTINUE SOUTH OF A SUPAI TO WINDOW ROCK LINE THROUGH 06Z BEFORE
DIMINISHING. MVFR AND BRIEF IFR CONDITIONS WILL ACCOMPANY THE
HEAVIER SHOWERS. ELSEWHERE AND OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH
17Z TUES. ISOLD TSTORMS POSSIBLE TUESDAY AFTERNOON ALONG THE UTAH
BORDER. SFC WINDS TUES AFTERNOON SW 10-20KT. AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT
UPDATED FOR TAF AMENDMENTS. &&

.FIRE WEATHER...SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS TO
CONTINUE THROUGH MIDNIGHT ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL AZ BEFORE
DIMINISHING. ON TUESDAY...WARMER AND MUCH DRIER CONDITIONS DEVELOP
AS THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVES AWAY FROM ARIZONA. A SLIGHT CHANCE
OF A HIGH-BASED THUNDERSTORM WILL LINGER ALONG THE AZ/UT BORDER.

WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY... DRY WEATHER WITH A WARMING TREND ARE
IN STORE STARTING WEDNESDAY. WINDS WILL REMAIN ON THE LIGHT
SIDE...GENERALLY 15 MPH OR LESS.

&&

.FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC...MAS
AVIATION...DL
FIRE WEATHER...DL




000
FXUS65 KPSR 252156
AFDPSR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PHOENIX AZ
255 PM MST MON MAY 25 2015

.SYNOPSIS...DRY WEATHER ALONG WITH A WARMING TREND IS FORECAST FOR
THE REMAINDER OF THIS WEEK AND WEEKEND. AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES ON
THE LOWER DESERTS BY FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY WILL GENERALLY WARM TO
BETWEEN 100 AND 105 DEGREES.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...ISOLATED SHWRS AND TSTMS WILL CONTINUE
THIS EVENING OVER PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST AZ JUST OUTSIDE OUR
MOUNTAINOUS ZONE 24 SOUTHERN GILA COUNTY. THE WEAK DISTURBANCE WILL
MOVE INTO NEW MEXICO TONIGHT...FOLLOWED BY SHORTWAVE RIDGING AND
VERY STABLE CONDITIONS ON TUESDAY.

ANOTHER WEAK SHORTWAVE TROF WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION WEDNESDAY...
HOWEVER ATMOSPHERIC HEIGHT AND THICKNESS VALUES WILL APPROACH NORMAL
MEANING ANOTHER WARM AFTERNOON OF NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES.
WEDNESDAYS AIRMASS WILL BE DRIER...BUT MODELED SOUNDINGS OVER THE
WHITE MOUNTAINS SUPPORT PERHAPS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF LATE AFTERNOON
THUNDERSTORMS JUST OUTSIDE OUR SOUTHERN GILA COUNTY ZONE 24.

THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY...A HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO
BUILD INTO THE REGION THIS PERIOD SUPPORTING DRY AND HOT WEATHER.
AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES ON THE LOWER DESERTS FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY
WILL WARM INTO THE 100 TO 105 DEGREE RANGE.

&&

.AVIATION... SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA INCLUDING KPHX...KIWA...AND
KSDL...AND SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA AND SOUTHWEST ARIZONA INCLUDING KIPL
AND KBLH...

OTHER THEN A FEW HIGH CLOUDS FROM TIME-TO-TIME...MAINLY CLEAR SKIES
TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. WEAK SFC PRESSURE GRADIENTS WITH
KEEP WINDS ON THE LIGHT SIDE...MAINLY AOB 8KTS...MOSTLY FOLLOWING
TYPICAL DIURNAL TRENDS.

AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDED TAFS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER... THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY... HIGH PRESSURE THAT WILL
BE GRADUALLY BUILDING OVER THE REGION WILL KEEP DRY CONDITIONS IN
PLACE THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD...WITH TEMPERATURES GRADUALLY
WARMING INTO SATURDAY...BEFORE LEVELING OFF FROM SUNDAY INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK. LOWER DESERT HIGHS WILL LIKELY REACH 100 DEGREES AT MOST
LOCATIONS BY FRIDAY...THEN RISE INTO THE 101-105 DEGREE RANGE FROM
SATURDAY ONWARD INTO NEXT MONDAY. MINIMUM RH VALUES ARE EXPECTED TO
RANGE FROM AROUND 8 PERCENT TO THE MID TEENS EACH DAY. DESPITE THESE
LOW RH VALUES...THE COMBINATION OF LIGHT WINDS AND FAIR-GOOD
OVERNIGHT RECOVERIES WILL CONTINUE TO KEEP FIRE DANGER LEVELS AT
RELATIVELY LOW LEVELS THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.

&&

.PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AZ...NONE.
CA...NONE.
&&

$$

VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/PHOENIX

DISCUSSION...VASQUEZ
AVIATION...PERCHA
FIRE WEATHER...PERCHA



000
FXUS65 KPSR 252156
AFDPSR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PHOENIX AZ
255 PM MST MON MAY 25 2015

.SYNOPSIS...DRY WEATHER ALONG WITH A WARMING TREND IS FORECAST FOR
THE REMAINDER OF THIS WEEK AND WEEKEND. AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES ON
THE LOWER DESERTS BY FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY WILL GENERALLY WARM TO
BETWEEN 100 AND 105 DEGREES.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...ISOLATED SHWRS AND TSTMS WILL CONTINUE
THIS EVENING OVER PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST AZ JUST OUTSIDE OUR
MOUNTAINOUS ZONE 24 SOUTHERN GILA COUNTY. THE WEAK DISTURBANCE WILL
MOVE INTO NEW MEXICO TONIGHT...FOLLOWED BY SHORTWAVE RIDGING AND
VERY STABLE CONDITIONS ON TUESDAY.

ANOTHER WEAK SHORTWAVE TROF WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION WEDNESDAY...
HOWEVER ATMOSPHERIC HEIGHT AND THICKNESS VALUES WILL APPROACH NORMAL
MEANING ANOTHER WARM AFTERNOON OF NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES.
WEDNESDAYS AIRMASS WILL BE DRIER...BUT MODELED SOUNDINGS OVER THE
WHITE MOUNTAINS SUPPORT PERHAPS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF LATE AFTERNOON
THUNDERSTORMS JUST OUTSIDE OUR SOUTHERN GILA COUNTY ZONE 24.

THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY...A HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO
BUILD INTO THE REGION THIS PERIOD SUPPORTING DRY AND HOT WEATHER.
AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES ON THE LOWER DESERTS FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY
WILL WARM INTO THE 100 TO 105 DEGREE RANGE.

&&

.AVIATION... SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA INCLUDING KPHX...KIWA...AND
KSDL...AND SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA AND SOUTHWEST ARIZONA INCLUDING KIPL
AND KBLH...

OTHER THEN A FEW HIGH CLOUDS FROM TIME-TO-TIME...MAINLY CLEAR SKIES
TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. WEAK SFC PRESSURE GRADIENTS WITH
KEEP WINDS ON THE LIGHT SIDE...MAINLY AOB 8KTS...MOSTLY FOLLOWING
TYPICAL DIURNAL TRENDS.

AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDED TAFS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER... THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY... HIGH PRESSURE THAT WILL
BE GRADUALLY BUILDING OVER THE REGION WILL KEEP DRY CONDITIONS IN
PLACE THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD...WITH TEMPERATURES GRADUALLY
WARMING INTO SATURDAY...BEFORE LEVELING OFF FROM SUNDAY INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK. LOWER DESERT HIGHS WILL LIKELY REACH 100 DEGREES AT MOST
LOCATIONS BY FRIDAY...THEN RISE INTO THE 101-105 DEGREE RANGE FROM
SATURDAY ONWARD INTO NEXT MONDAY. MINIMUM RH VALUES ARE EXPECTED TO
RANGE FROM AROUND 8 PERCENT TO THE MID TEENS EACH DAY. DESPITE THESE
LOW RH VALUES...THE COMBINATION OF LIGHT WINDS AND FAIR-GOOD
OVERNIGHT RECOVERIES WILL CONTINUE TO KEEP FIRE DANGER LEVELS AT
RELATIVELY LOW LEVELS THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.

&&

.PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AZ...NONE.
CA...NONE.
&&

$$

VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/PHOENIX

DISCUSSION...VASQUEZ
AVIATION...PERCHA
FIRE WEATHER...PERCHA




000
FXUS65 KTWC 251730
AFDTWC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ
1030 AM MST MON MAY 25 2015

.SYNOPSIS...THERE IS A CHANCE OF SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE MEMORIAL DAY
ACROSS THE WHITE MOUNTAINS. DRY CONDITIONS WILL THEN PREVAIL TUESDAY
INTO NEXT WEEKEND. EXPECT NEAR NORMAL DAYTIME TEMPERATURES TUESDAY
THROUGH FRIDAY...THEN WARMER TEMPERATURES NEXT WEEKEND WITH HIGHS
APPROACHING THE CENTURY MARK AT TUCSON SUNDAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WITH CUMULOFORM CLOUDS SPREADING
SEWD MAINLY ACROSS THE WHITE MOUNTAINS AT THIS TIME. THERE IS ENOUGH
MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY TO MAINTAIN A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE WHITE MOUNTAINS INTO EARLY THIS EVENING.
OTHERWISE...DRY CONDITIONS TODAY WITH DAYTIME TEMPS ABOUT 5 DEGS OR
SO WARMER VERSUS SUNDAY.

THERE ARE NO UPDATES PLANNED AT THIS TIME. PLEASE REFER TO THE
ADDITIONAL SECTIONS FOR FURTHER DETAIL.

&&

.AVIATION...VALID THRU 26/18Z.
SCATTERED -SHRA AND ISOLATED -TSRA WILL OCCUR ACROSS THE WHITE
MOUNTAINS NE OF KSAD INTO THIS EVENING. OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS
WITH A FEW TO SCATTERED CLOUDS AT 8-12K FT AGL AND SCATTERED CLOUDS
ABOVE 20K FT AGL INTO TUESDAY MORNING. SURFACE WIND UNTIL AROUND
26/03Z WILL BE WLY/NWLY AT 10-18 KTS WITH GUSTS OF 20-25 KTS.
SURFACE WIND WILL BE LESS THAN 10 KTS AT OTHER TIMES. AVIATION
DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR TAF AMENDMENTS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...THERE IS A CHANCE OF SHOWERS ACROSS THE WHITE
MOUNTAINS INTO THIS EVENING. DRY CONDITIONS WILL THEN PREVAIL AREA-
WIDE TUESDAY INTO THIS WEEKEND. EXPECT NORMAL DIURNAL WIND
TRENDS...WITH GUSTS DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS DUE TO DAYTIME
HEATING. A WARMING TREND WILL OCCUR THROUGH TUESDAY FOLLOWED BY
CONTINUED NEAR NORMAL DAYTIME TEMPERATURES WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.
EXPECT ABOVE NORMAL HIGH TEMPERATURES THIS WEEKEND.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...A CLEAR SKY PREVAILED ACROSS SE AZ THIS MORNING.
DEEPEST MOISTURE CONTINUES TO RESIDE ACROSS THE NRN HALF OF AZ AND
WITH ANOTHER SHORT WAVE PUSHING THRU THAT AREA LATER TODAY...THERE
WILL BE A CHANCE FOR AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS IN THE WHITES. ELSEWHERE IT WILL BE DRY UNDER A SUNNY
TO MOSTLY SUNNY SKY ON THIS MEMORIAL DAY WITH HIGHS 3 TO 5 DEGREES
WARMER THAN SUNDAY BUT STILL REMAINING BELOW NORMAL.

FLOW ALOFT ON TUESDAY WILL BECOME SW AS YET ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL TROF
APPROACHES THE AREA. THIS TROF WILL MOVE INTO WRN AZ WED AND THEN
ACROSS SE AZ ON THURSDAY. NOT A LOT OF MOISTURE WILL BE ASSOCIATED
WITH THIS SYSTEM BUT WITH TROF AXIS MOVING THRU ON THURSDAY...COULD
SEE A QUICK SHOWER UP IN THE WHITES IN THE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING
HOURS. THIS TROF WILL KICK UP THE BREEZE THOUGH BOTH DAYS.

DRY NW FLOW ALOFT ON FRIDAY AS UPPER RIDGE AMPLIFIES TO OUR WEST
INTO CALIFORNIA. THIS RIDGE WILL GRADUALLY MOVE EAST OVER THE STATE
THIS WEEKEND WITH MOST OF THE AREA SEEING ABOVE NORMAL HIGH
TEMPERATURES FOR THE FIRST TIME IN ALMOST TWO WEEKS. WITH THE RIDGE
AXIS OVER THE STATE ON SUNDAY...THE WARMEST TEMPERATURES OF 2015 ARE
LIKELY AS THE MONTH OF MAY CLOSES. MODEL LOW LEVEL THICKNESS VALUES
ON SUNDAY AND MOS GUIDANCE WOULD SUGGEST THAT TUCSON WILL BE CLOSE
TO BREAKING THE 100 DEGREES ICE.

&&

.TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...YOUTUBE...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/TUCSON



000
FXUS65 KTWC 251730
AFDTWC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ
1030 AM MST MON MAY 25 2015

.SYNOPSIS...THERE IS A CHANCE OF SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE MEMORIAL DAY
ACROSS THE WHITE MOUNTAINS. DRY CONDITIONS WILL THEN PREVAIL TUESDAY
INTO NEXT WEEKEND. EXPECT NEAR NORMAL DAYTIME TEMPERATURES TUESDAY
THROUGH FRIDAY...THEN WARMER TEMPERATURES NEXT WEEKEND WITH HIGHS
APPROACHING THE CENTURY MARK AT TUCSON SUNDAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WITH CUMULOFORM CLOUDS SPREADING
SEWD MAINLY ACROSS THE WHITE MOUNTAINS AT THIS TIME. THERE IS ENOUGH
MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY TO MAINTAIN A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE WHITE MOUNTAINS INTO EARLY THIS EVENING.
OTHERWISE...DRY CONDITIONS TODAY WITH DAYTIME TEMPS ABOUT 5 DEGS OR
SO WARMER VERSUS SUNDAY.

THERE ARE NO UPDATES PLANNED AT THIS TIME. PLEASE REFER TO THE
ADDITIONAL SECTIONS FOR FURTHER DETAIL.

&&

.AVIATION...VALID THRU 26/18Z.
SCATTERED -SHRA AND ISOLATED -TSRA WILL OCCUR ACROSS THE WHITE
MOUNTAINS NE OF KSAD INTO THIS EVENING. OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS
WITH A FEW TO SCATTERED CLOUDS AT 8-12K FT AGL AND SCATTERED CLOUDS
ABOVE 20K FT AGL INTO TUESDAY MORNING. SURFACE WIND UNTIL AROUND
26/03Z WILL BE WLY/NWLY AT 10-18 KTS WITH GUSTS OF 20-25 KTS.
SURFACE WIND WILL BE LESS THAN 10 KTS AT OTHER TIMES. AVIATION
DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR TAF AMENDMENTS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...THERE IS A CHANCE OF SHOWERS ACROSS THE WHITE
MOUNTAINS INTO THIS EVENING. DRY CONDITIONS WILL THEN PREVAIL AREA-
WIDE TUESDAY INTO THIS WEEKEND. EXPECT NORMAL DIURNAL WIND
TRENDS...WITH GUSTS DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS DUE TO DAYTIME
HEATING. A WARMING TREND WILL OCCUR THROUGH TUESDAY FOLLOWED BY
CONTINUED NEAR NORMAL DAYTIME TEMPERATURES WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.
EXPECT ABOVE NORMAL HIGH TEMPERATURES THIS WEEKEND.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...A CLEAR SKY PREVAILED ACROSS SE AZ THIS MORNING.
DEEPEST MOISTURE CONTINUES TO RESIDE ACROSS THE NRN HALF OF AZ AND
WITH ANOTHER SHORT WAVE PUSHING THRU THAT AREA LATER TODAY...THERE
WILL BE A CHANCE FOR AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS IN THE WHITES. ELSEWHERE IT WILL BE DRY UNDER A SUNNY
TO MOSTLY SUNNY SKY ON THIS MEMORIAL DAY WITH HIGHS 3 TO 5 DEGREES
WARMER THAN SUNDAY BUT STILL REMAINING BELOW NORMAL.

FLOW ALOFT ON TUESDAY WILL BECOME SW AS YET ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL TROF
APPROACHES THE AREA. THIS TROF WILL MOVE INTO WRN AZ WED AND THEN
ACROSS SE AZ ON THURSDAY. NOT A LOT OF MOISTURE WILL BE ASSOCIATED
WITH THIS SYSTEM BUT WITH TROF AXIS MOVING THRU ON THURSDAY...COULD
SEE A QUICK SHOWER UP IN THE WHITES IN THE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING
HOURS. THIS TROF WILL KICK UP THE BREEZE THOUGH BOTH DAYS.

DRY NW FLOW ALOFT ON FRIDAY AS UPPER RIDGE AMPLIFIES TO OUR WEST
INTO CALIFORNIA. THIS RIDGE WILL GRADUALLY MOVE EAST OVER THE STATE
THIS WEEKEND WITH MOST OF THE AREA SEEING ABOVE NORMAL HIGH
TEMPERATURES FOR THE FIRST TIME IN ALMOST TWO WEEKS. WITH THE RIDGE
AXIS OVER THE STATE ON SUNDAY...THE WARMEST TEMPERATURES OF 2015 ARE
LIKELY AS THE MONTH OF MAY CLOSES. MODEL LOW LEVEL THICKNESS VALUES
ON SUNDAY AND MOS GUIDANCE WOULD SUGGEST THAT TUCSON WILL BE CLOSE
TO BREAKING THE 100 DEGREES ICE.

&&

.TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...YOUTUBE...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/TUCSON




000
FXUS65 KFGZ 251631
AFDFGZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ
930 AM MST MON MAY 25 2015

.SYNOPSIS...AMPLE MOISTURE WILL COMBINE WITH A WEAK WEATHER SYSTEM
TO PRODUCE COOL TEMPERATURES AND A SCATTERED SHOWERS TODAY. SHOWERS
WILL DIMINISH THIS EVENING AS THE CURRENT SYSTEM MOVES EASTWARD.
STARTING TUESDAY...THE WEATHER PATTERN WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT TO
WARMER AND DRIER CONDITIONS FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...A LINE OF SHOWERS IS MOVING EASTWARD ACROSS EXTREME
EASTERN COCONINO COUNTY AND MOST OF NAVAJO COUNTY THIS MORNING. THESE
SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE MOVING EAST THIS MORNING AND INTO NEW MEXICO
BY EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. OTHER SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS
WILL DEVELOP BEHIND THESE SHOWER ACROSS MUCH OF NORTHERN ARIZONA
THIS AFTERNOON AS THE ATMOSPHERE REMAINS UNSTABLE. CURRNET FORECAST
IS ON TRACK.


&&
.PREV DISCUSSION /300 AM MST/...AMPLE MOISTURE AND NORTHWEST FLOW
WILL REMAIN OVER NORTHERN ARIZONA TODAY. AN AREA OF SHOWERS WAS
MOVING ACROSS NORTHWEST ARIZONA DURING THE MORNING HOURS AND LOOKS
TO BRING A FEW MORNING SHOWERS FROM SELIGMAN AND FLAGSTAFF NORTHWARD
TO THE GRAND CANYON AND KAIBAB PLATEAU. ELSEWHERE, ISOLATED SHOWERS
WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS. FOR THIS
AFTERNOON...DAYTIME HEATING WILL HELP DESTABILIZE THE ATMOSPHERE
WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING AND LASTING INTO
THE EARLY EVENING, PRIMARILY ALONG AND NORTH OF THE MOGOLLON RIM.
WELL BELOW NORMAL HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE.

STARTING TUESDAY AND HEADING INTO NEXT WEEKEND...THE GENERAL TREND
WILL TO TOWARD WARMER AND DRIER CONDITIONS. ANOTHER WEAK DISTURBANCE
WILL SWING ACROSS ON WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY BUT WILL BE MUCH WARMER
THAN THE LAST SEVERAL SUCH DISTURBANCES. LOOKS LIKE ENOUGH MOISTURE
WILL LINGER FOR A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS NEAR THE ARIZONA/UTAH
BORDER AND THE FOUR CORNERS REGION THROUGH THURSDAY. AN ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORM IS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION. MODELS IN FAIRLY GOOD
AGREEMENT IN SHOWING HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING OVER ARIZONA SATRING
FRIDAY AND FOR THE COMING WEEKEND. AT THIS TIME IT LOOKS LIKE DRY
CONDITIONS AND HIGH TEMPERATURES MORE TYPICAL OF MAY ARE HEADED OUR
WAY.

&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 18Z PACKAGE...EXPECT AN AREA OF -RA EAST OF A
KGCN-KINW-KSOW LINE TO MOVE EASTWARD ACROSS APACHE AND NAVAJO
COUNTIES THROUGH 21Z TODAY. OTHERWISE SCATTERED SHRA AND ISOLATED
TSRA TO REDEVELOP PRIMARILY ALONG/NORTH OF THE MOGOLLON RIM. VFR
CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE PERIOD...THOUGH MVFR/BRIEF IFR
AND GUSTY WINDS WILL ACCOMPANY THE HEAVIER SHOWERS. MOST SHOWER
ACTIVITY WILL DIMINISH AFTER 03Z. AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED
FOR TAF AMENDMENTS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL
DEVELOP AGAIN TODAY. DAYTIME TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO BE WELL
BELOW NORMAL...WITH ELEVATED HUMIDITY LEVELS. ON TUESDAY...WARMER
AND DRIER CONDITIONS DEVELOP AS THE TROUGH MOVES AWAY FROM THE
STATE. A SLIGHT CHANCE OF A HIGH-BASED THUNDERSTORM WILL LINGER
ALONG THE AZ/UT BORDER.

WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...MUCH WARMER AND MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS
WILL CONTINUE. WINDS WILL REMAIN ON THE LIGHT SIDE...GENERALLY 15
MPH OR LESS.

&&

.FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC...MAS/MCCOLLUM
AVIATION...DL
FIRE WEATHER...JJ




000
FXUS65 KFGZ 251631
AFDFGZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ
930 AM MST MON MAY 25 2015

.SYNOPSIS...AMPLE MOISTURE WILL COMBINE WITH A WEAK WEATHER SYSTEM
TO PRODUCE COOL TEMPERATURES AND A SCATTERED SHOWERS TODAY. SHOWERS
WILL DIMINISH THIS EVENING AS THE CURRENT SYSTEM MOVES EASTWARD.
STARTING TUESDAY...THE WEATHER PATTERN WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT TO
WARMER AND DRIER CONDITIONS FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...A LINE OF SHOWERS IS MOVING EASTWARD ACROSS EXTREME
EASTERN COCONINO COUNTY AND MOST OF NAVAJO COUNTY THIS MORNING. THESE
SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE MOVING EAST THIS MORNING AND INTO NEW MEXICO
BY EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. OTHER SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS
WILL DEVELOP BEHIND THESE SHOWER ACROSS MUCH OF NORTHERN ARIZONA
THIS AFTERNOON AS THE ATMOSPHERE REMAINS UNSTABLE. CURRNET FORECAST
IS ON TRACK.


&&
.PREV DISCUSSION /300 AM MST/...AMPLE MOISTURE AND NORTHWEST FLOW
WILL REMAIN OVER NORTHERN ARIZONA TODAY. AN AREA OF SHOWERS WAS
MOVING ACROSS NORTHWEST ARIZONA DURING THE MORNING HOURS AND LOOKS
TO BRING A FEW MORNING SHOWERS FROM SELIGMAN AND FLAGSTAFF NORTHWARD
TO THE GRAND CANYON AND KAIBAB PLATEAU. ELSEWHERE, ISOLATED SHOWERS
WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS. FOR THIS
AFTERNOON...DAYTIME HEATING WILL HELP DESTABILIZE THE ATMOSPHERE
WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING AND LASTING INTO
THE EARLY EVENING, PRIMARILY ALONG AND NORTH OF THE MOGOLLON RIM.
WELL BELOW NORMAL HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE.

STARTING TUESDAY AND HEADING INTO NEXT WEEKEND...THE GENERAL TREND
WILL TO TOWARD WARMER AND DRIER CONDITIONS. ANOTHER WEAK DISTURBANCE
WILL SWING ACROSS ON WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY BUT WILL BE MUCH WARMER
THAN THE LAST SEVERAL SUCH DISTURBANCES. LOOKS LIKE ENOUGH MOISTURE
WILL LINGER FOR A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS NEAR THE ARIZONA/UTAH
BORDER AND THE FOUR CORNERS REGION THROUGH THURSDAY. AN ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORM IS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION. MODELS IN FAIRLY GOOD
AGREEMENT IN SHOWING HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING OVER ARIZONA SATRING
FRIDAY AND FOR THE COMING WEEKEND. AT THIS TIME IT LOOKS LIKE DRY
CONDITIONS AND HIGH TEMPERATURES MORE TYPICAL OF MAY ARE HEADED OUR
WAY.

&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 18Z PACKAGE...EXPECT AN AREA OF -RA EAST OF A
KGCN-KINW-KSOW LINE TO MOVE EASTWARD ACROSS APACHE AND NAVAJO
COUNTIES THROUGH 21Z TODAY. OTHERWISE SCATTERED SHRA AND ISOLATED
TSRA TO REDEVELOP PRIMARILY ALONG/NORTH OF THE MOGOLLON RIM. VFR
CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE PERIOD...THOUGH MVFR/BRIEF IFR
AND GUSTY WINDS WILL ACCOMPANY THE HEAVIER SHOWERS. MOST SHOWER
ACTIVITY WILL DIMINISH AFTER 03Z. AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED
FOR TAF AMENDMENTS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL
DEVELOP AGAIN TODAY. DAYTIME TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO BE WELL
BELOW NORMAL...WITH ELEVATED HUMIDITY LEVELS. ON TUESDAY...WARMER
AND DRIER CONDITIONS DEVELOP AS THE TROUGH MOVES AWAY FROM THE
STATE. A SLIGHT CHANCE OF A HIGH-BASED THUNDERSTORM WILL LINGER
ALONG THE AZ/UT BORDER.

WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...MUCH WARMER AND MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS
WILL CONTINUE. WINDS WILL REMAIN ON THE LIGHT SIDE...GENERALLY 15
MPH OR LESS.

&&

.FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC...MAS/MCCOLLUM
AVIATION...DL
FIRE WEATHER...JJ



000
FXUS65 KFGZ 251631
AFDFGZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ
930 AM MST MON MAY 25 2015

.SYNOPSIS...AMPLE MOISTURE WILL COMBINE WITH A WEAK WEATHER SYSTEM
TO PRODUCE COOL TEMPERATURES AND A SCATTERED SHOWERS TODAY. SHOWERS
WILL DIMINISH THIS EVENING AS THE CURRENT SYSTEM MOVES EASTWARD.
STARTING TUESDAY...THE WEATHER PATTERN WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT TO
WARMER AND DRIER CONDITIONS FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...A LINE OF SHOWERS IS MOVING EASTWARD ACROSS EXTREME
EASTERN COCONINO COUNTY AND MOST OF NAVAJO COUNTY THIS MORNING. THESE
SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE MOVING EAST THIS MORNING AND INTO NEW MEXICO
BY EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. OTHER SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS
WILL DEVELOP BEHIND THESE SHOWER ACROSS MUCH OF NORTHERN ARIZONA
THIS AFTERNOON AS THE ATMOSPHERE REMAINS UNSTABLE. CURRNET FORECAST
IS ON TRACK.


&&
.PREV DISCUSSION /300 AM MST/...AMPLE MOISTURE AND NORTHWEST FLOW
WILL REMAIN OVER NORTHERN ARIZONA TODAY. AN AREA OF SHOWERS WAS
MOVING ACROSS NORTHWEST ARIZONA DURING THE MORNING HOURS AND LOOKS
TO BRING A FEW MORNING SHOWERS FROM SELIGMAN AND FLAGSTAFF NORTHWARD
TO THE GRAND CANYON AND KAIBAB PLATEAU. ELSEWHERE, ISOLATED SHOWERS
WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS. FOR THIS
AFTERNOON...DAYTIME HEATING WILL HELP DESTABILIZE THE ATMOSPHERE
WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING AND LASTING INTO
THE EARLY EVENING, PRIMARILY ALONG AND NORTH OF THE MOGOLLON RIM.
WELL BELOW NORMAL HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE.

STARTING TUESDAY AND HEADING INTO NEXT WEEKEND...THE GENERAL TREND
WILL TO TOWARD WARMER AND DRIER CONDITIONS. ANOTHER WEAK DISTURBANCE
WILL SWING ACROSS ON WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY BUT WILL BE MUCH WARMER
THAN THE LAST SEVERAL SUCH DISTURBANCES. LOOKS LIKE ENOUGH MOISTURE
WILL LINGER FOR A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS NEAR THE ARIZONA/UTAH
BORDER AND THE FOUR CORNERS REGION THROUGH THURSDAY. AN ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORM IS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION. MODELS IN FAIRLY GOOD
AGREEMENT IN SHOWING HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING OVER ARIZONA SATRING
FRIDAY AND FOR THE COMING WEEKEND. AT THIS TIME IT LOOKS LIKE DRY
CONDITIONS AND HIGH TEMPERATURES MORE TYPICAL OF MAY ARE HEADED OUR
WAY.

&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 18Z PACKAGE...EXPECT AN AREA OF -RA EAST OF A
KGCN-KINW-KSOW LINE TO MOVE EASTWARD ACROSS APACHE AND NAVAJO
COUNTIES THROUGH 21Z TODAY. OTHERWISE SCATTERED SHRA AND ISOLATED
TSRA TO REDEVELOP PRIMARILY ALONG/NORTH OF THE MOGOLLON RIM. VFR
CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE PERIOD...THOUGH MVFR/BRIEF IFR
AND GUSTY WINDS WILL ACCOMPANY THE HEAVIER SHOWERS. MOST SHOWER
ACTIVITY WILL DIMINISH AFTER 03Z. AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED
FOR TAF AMENDMENTS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL
DEVELOP AGAIN TODAY. DAYTIME TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO BE WELL
BELOW NORMAL...WITH ELEVATED HUMIDITY LEVELS. ON TUESDAY...WARMER
AND DRIER CONDITIONS DEVELOP AS THE TROUGH MOVES AWAY FROM THE
STATE. A SLIGHT CHANCE OF A HIGH-BASED THUNDERSTORM WILL LINGER
ALONG THE AZ/UT BORDER.

WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...MUCH WARMER AND MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS
WILL CONTINUE. WINDS WILL REMAIN ON THE LIGHT SIDE...GENERALLY 15
MPH OR LESS.

&&

.FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC...MAS/MCCOLLUM
AVIATION...DL
FIRE WEATHER...JJ




000
FXUS65 KFGZ 251631
AFDFGZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ
930 AM MST MON MAY 25 2015

.SYNOPSIS...AMPLE MOISTURE WILL COMBINE WITH A WEAK WEATHER SYSTEM
TO PRODUCE COOL TEMPERATURES AND A SCATTERED SHOWERS TODAY. SHOWERS
WILL DIMINISH THIS EVENING AS THE CURRENT SYSTEM MOVES EASTWARD.
STARTING TUESDAY...THE WEATHER PATTERN WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT TO
WARMER AND DRIER CONDITIONS FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...A LINE OF SHOWERS IS MOVING EASTWARD ACROSS EXTREME
EASTERN COCONINO COUNTY AND MOST OF NAVAJO COUNTY THIS MORNING. THESE
SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE MOVING EAST THIS MORNING AND INTO NEW MEXICO
BY EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. OTHER SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS
WILL DEVELOP BEHIND THESE SHOWER ACROSS MUCH OF NORTHERN ARIZONA
THIS AFTERNOON AS THE ATMOSPHERE REMAINS UNSTABLE. CURRNET FORECAST
IS ON TRACK.


&&
.PREV DISCUSSION /300 AM MST/...AMPLE MOISTURE AND NORTHWEST FLOW
WILL REMAIN OVER NORTHERN ARIZONA TODAY. AN AREA OF SHOWERS WAS
MOVING ACROSS NORTHWEST ARIZONA DURING THE MORNING HOURS AND LOOKS
TO BRING A FEW MORNING SHOWERS FROM SELIGMAN AND FLAGSTAFF NORTHWARD
TO THE GRAND CANYON AND KAIBAB PLATEAU. ELSEWHERE, ISOLATED SHOWERS
WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS. FOR THIS
AFTERNOON...DAYTIME HEATING WILL HELP DESTABILIZE THE ATMOSPHERE
WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING AND LASTING INTO
THE EARLY EVENING, PRIMARILY ALONG AND NORTH OF THE MOGOLLON RIM.
WELL BELOW NORMAL HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE.

STARTING TUESDAY AND HEADING INTO NEXT WEEKEND...THE GENERAL TREND
WILL TO TOWARD WARMER AND DRIER CONDITIONS. ANOTHER WEAK DISTURBANCE
WILL SWING ACROSS ON WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY BUT WILL BE MUCH WARMER
THAN THE LAST SEVERAL SUCH DISTURBANCES. LOOKS LIKE ENOUGH MOISTURE
WILL LINGER FOR A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS NEAR THE ARIZONA/UTAH
BORDER AND THE FOUR CORNERS REGION THROUGH THURSDAY. AN ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORM IS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION. MODELS IN FAIRLY GOOD
AGREEMENT IN SHOWING HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING OVER ARIZONA SATRING
FRIDAY AND FOR THE COMING WEEKEND. AT THIS TIME IT LOOKS LIKE DRY
CONDITIONS AND HIGH TEMPERATURES MORE TYPICAL OF MAY ARE HEADED OUR
WAY.

&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 18Z PACKAGE...EXPECT AN AREA OF -RA EAST OF A
KGCN-KINW-KSOW LINE TO MOVE EASTWARD ACROSS APACHE AND NAVAJO
COUNTIES THROUGH 21Z TODAY. OTHERWISE SCATTERED SHRA AND ISOLATED
TSRA TO REDEVELOP PRIMARILY ALONG/NORTH OF THE MOGOLLON RIM. VFR
CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE PERIOD...THOUGH MVFR/BRIEF IFR
AND GUSTY WINDS WILL ACCOMPANY THE HEAVIER SHOWERS. MOST SHOWER
ACTIVITY WILL DIMINISH AFTER 03Z. AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED
FOR TAF AMENDMENTS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL
DEVELOP AGAIN TODAY. DAYTIME TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO BE WELL
BELOW NORMAL...WITH ELEVATED HUMIDITY LEVELS. ON TUESDAY...WARMER
AND DRIER CONDITIONS DEVELOP AS THE TROUGH MOVES AWAY FROM THE
STATE. A SLIGHT CHANCE OF A HIGH-BASED THUNDERSTORM WILL LINGER
ALONG THE AZ/UT BORDER.

WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...MUCH WARMER AND MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS
WILL CONTINUE. WINDS WILL REMAIN ON THE LIGHT SIDE...GENERALLY 15
MPH OR LESS.

&&

.FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC...MAS/MCCOLLUM
AVIATION...DL
FIRE WEATHER...JJ



000
FXUS65 KPSR 251508
AFDPSR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PHOENIX AZ
810 AM MST MON MAY 25 2015

.SYNOPSIS... ONE LAST WEAK WEATHER SYSTEM WILL MOVE ACROSS NORTHERN
ARIZONA INTO EAST-CENTRAL ARIZONA TODAY ALLOWING FOR SOME ISOLATED
SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN AREAS THIS
AFTERNOON. A GRADUAL WARMING AND DRYING TREND WILL TAKE PLACE THIS
WEEK WITH TEMPERATURES RETURNING TO SEASONAL NORMALS BY THURSDAY AND
THEN EVEN EXCEEDING THE 100 DEGREE MARK BY THE COMING WEEKEND.

&&

.DISCUSSION...CLEAR SKIES WERE NOTED ACROSS OUR FORECAST AREA...
SOUTHEAST CA TO SOUTH CENTRAL AZ THIS MORNING. HOWEVER BKN TO OVC
MID LEVEL CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAK DISTURBANCE WAS ALSO NOTED
ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF AZ THIS MORNING. THIS DISTURBANCE IS
FORECAST TO MOVE EAST ACROSS A LARGE PART OF NORTHEAST AZ TODAY...
JUST OUTSIDE OUR PORTIONS IN SOUTHERN GILA COUNTY ZONE 24...AND
GENERATE A FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

VERY STABLE AND DRIER AIR IS FORECAST TO FOLLOW THIS SHORTWAVE LATER
THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY. THEREFORE CURRENT DRY AND WARMER
FORECAST ACROSS OUR FORECAST AREA THROUGH TUESDAY LOOK OK. NO
UPDATES PLANNED.


.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...450 AM MST...

ONE COMPACT SHORTWAVE TROUGH EXITED THE STATE LAST EVENING WHILE
ANOTHER QUICKLY APPROACHES FROM NORTHWEST. THIS NEXT SHORTWAVE IS
DEFINITELY WEAKER...BUT STILL HAS ENOUGH FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH IT
TO GENERATE SOME ONGOING SHOWERS WEST OF FLAGSTAFF. THE FORECAST
TRACK WILL BRING THIS FEATURE THROUGH EAST-CENTRAL ARIZONA THIS
AFTERNOON WHICH SHOULD ALLOW FOR MORE SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT OVER HIGHER TERRAIN AREAS NORTH AND EAST OF PHOENIX AS
SOME LINGERING MOISTURE STILL REMAINS IN PLACE. NOT REALLY EXPECTING
MUCH IF ANY SHOWER ACTIVITY OVER OUR AREA...BUT WE MAY BE ABLE TO
MANAGE TO GET SOME IN FAR EASTERN GILA COUNTY. TEMPERATURES TODAY
WILL CONTINUE THEIR UPWARD CLIMB...BUT JUST GRADUALLY AS HIGHS
SHOULD REACH INTO THE LOWER 90S OVER THE DESERTS.

THE REST OF THE WEEK WILL BE CHARACTERIZED BY DRIER
CONDITIONS...INCREASING HEIGHTS ALOFT AND CONSIDERABLE WARMING WHICH
WILL FINALLY BRING OUR TEMPERATURES BACK TO SEASONAL NORMALS BY LATE
IN THE WEEK. WHILE THERE WILL BE FAIRLY WEAK PERSISTENT WESTERLY
FLOW ALOFT...MODELS DO SHOW A WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH PASSING THROUGH
ON WEDNESDAY BRINGING SOME MID AND HIGH CLOUDS. REGIONAL 500MB
HEIGHTS WILL RISE FROM AROUND 574DM TODAY TO 580DM FOR TUESDAY
THROUGH THURSDAY AND THEN RISE AGAIN FOR LATE IN THE WEEK INTO THE
WEEKEND...REACHING HEIGHTS NEAR 585DM. THE 585DM 500MB HEIGHTS MOVE
IN FRIDAY NIGHT AS A FAIRLY STRONG PACIFIC RIDGE SHIFTS
NORTHEASTWARD INTO THE DESERT SOUTHWEST AND GREAT BASIN. THIS
PATTERN WILL RESULT IN HIGH TEMPERATURES RISING EACH DAY WITH MID 90S
COMMONPLACE FOR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY AND UPPER 90S FOR THE LATTER
PART OF THE WEEK. ONCE THE RIDGE MOVES OVERHEAD FOR THE COMING
WEEKEND...HIGHS WILL EASILY BREAK THE 100 DEGREE MARK OVER THE
DESERTS. THIS WILL BE THE WARMEST AIR SO FAR THIS YEAR...BUT WILL
STILL BE ROUGHLY 10 DEGREES SHY OF ANY RECORDS.

&&

.AVIATION...
SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA INCLUDING KPHX...KIWA...AND KSDL...AND
SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA AND SOUTHWEST ARIZONA INCLUDING KIPL AND KBLH...

ASIDE FROM SOME FEW/SCT HIGH CLOUDS...WEATHER IMPACTS SHOULD BE
MINIMAL ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING. LIGHT DIURNALLY
DRIVEN WINDS ARE EXPECTED AT ALL SITES NEXT 24 HOURS AND VFR
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT ALL TERMINALS.

AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDED TAFS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...
DRIER AND WARMER CONDITIONS TO MAKE THEIR WAY INTO THE REGION
THROUGH THE PERIOD AS HIGH PRESSURE GRADUALLY STRENGTHENS OVER THE
DESERT SOUTHWEST...WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES RISING TO NEAR...OR JUST
ABOVE 100 DEGREES AT MANY LOWER DESERT LOCATIONS FROM FRIDAY ONWARD
INTO NEXT WEEKEND. HUMIDITIES ARE EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY FALL OFF DAY
BY DAY PARTIALLY A RESULT OF THE INCREASING TEMPERATURES. RH VALUES
WEDNESDAY RANGE FROM AROUND 10 PERCENT TO THE UPPER TEENS AND BY THE
WEEKEND MOST DESERT LOCALES DROP INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS. DESPITE THE
LOW RH VALUES...THE COMBINATION OF LIGHT WINDS AND FAIR-GOOD
OVERNIGHT RECOVERIES WILL KEEP FIRE DANGER LEVELS AT RELATIVELY LOW
LEVELS THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.

&&

.PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AZ...NONE.
CA...NONE.
&&

$$

VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/PHOENIX

DISCUSSION...VASQUEZ/KUHLMAN
AVIATION...CB
FIRE WEATHER...PERCHA/CB



000
FXUS65 KPSR 251508
AFDPSR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PHOENIX AZ
810 AM MST MON MAY 25 2015

.SYNOPSIS... ONE LAST WEAK WEATHER SYSTEM WILL MOVE ACROSS NORTHERN
ARIZONA INTO EAST-CENTRAL ARIZONA TODAY ALLOWING FOR SOME ISOLATED
SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN AREAS THIS
AFTERNOON. A GRADUAL WARMING AND DRYING TREND WILL TAKE PLACE THIS
WEEK WITH TEMPERATURES RETURNING TO SEASONAL NORMALS BY THURSDAY AND
THEN EVEN EXCEEDING THE 100 DEGREE MARK BY THE COMING WEEKEND.

&&

.DISCUSSION...CLEAR SKIES WERE NOTED ACROSS OUR FORECAST AREA...
SOUTHEAST CA TO SOUTH CENTRAL AZ THIS MORNING. HOWEVER BKN TO OVC
MID LEVEL CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAK DISTURBANCE WAS ALSO NOTED
ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF AZ THIS MORNING. THIS DISTURBANCE IS
FORECAST TO MOVE EAST ACROSS A LARGE PART OF NORTHEAST AZ TODAY...
JUST OUTSIDE OUR PORTIONS IN SOUTHERN GILA COUNTY ZONE 24...AND
GENERATE A FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

VERY STABLE AND DRIER AIR IS FORECAST TO FOLLOW THIS SHORTWAVE LATER
THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY. THEREFORE CURRENT DRY AND WARMER
FORECAST ACROSS OUR FORECAST AREA THROUGH TUESDAY LOOK OK. NO
UPDATES PLANNED.


.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...450 AM MST...

ONE COMPACT SHORTWAVE TROUGH EXITED THE STATE LAST EVENING WHILE
ANOTHER QUICKLY APPROACHES FROM NORTHWEST. THIS NEXT SHORTWAVE IS
DEFINITELY WEAKER...BUT STILL HAS ENOUGH FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH IT
TO GENERATE SOME ONGOING SHOWERS WEST OF FLAGSTAFF. THE FORECAST
TRACK WILL BRING THIS FEATURE THROUGH EAST-CENTRAL ARIZONA THIS
AFTERNOON WHICH SHOULD ALLOW FOR MORE SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT OVER HIGHER TERRAIN AREAS NORTH AND EAST OF PHOENIX AS
SOME LINGERING MOISTURE STILL REMAINS IN PLACE. NOT REALLY EXPECTING
MUCH IF ANY SHOWER ACTIVITY OVER OUR AREA...BUT WE MAY BE ABLE TO
MANAGE TO GET SOME IN FAR EASTERN GILA COUNTY. TEMPERATURES TODAY
WILL CONTINUE THEIR UPWARD CLIMB...BUT JUST GRADUALLY AS HIGHS
SHOULD REACH INTO THE LOWER 90S OVER THE DESERTS.

THE REST OF THE WEEK WILL BE CHARACTERIZED BY DRIER
CONDITIONS...INCREASING HEIGHTS ALOFT AND CONSIDERABLE WARMING WHICH
WILL FINALLY BRING OUR TEMPERATURES BACK TO SEASONAL NORMALS BY LATE
IN THE WEEK. WHILE THERE WILL BE FAIRLY WEAK PERSISTENT WESTERLY
FLOW ALOFT...MODELS DO SHOW A WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH PASSING THROUGH
ON WEDNESDAY BRINGING SOME MID AND HIGH CLOUDS. REGIONAL 500MB
HEIGHTS WILL RISE FROM AROUND 574DM TODAY TO 580DM FOR TUESDAY
THROUGH THURSDAY AND THEN RISE AGAIN FOR LATE IN THE WEEK INTO THE
WEEKEND...REACHING HEIGHTS NEAR 585DM. THE 585DM 500MB HEIGHTS MOVE
IN FRIDAY NIGHT AS A FAIRLY STRONG PACIFIC RIDGE SHIFTS
NORTHEASTWARD INTO THE DESERT SOUTHWEST AND GREAT BASIN. THIS
PATTERN WILL RESULT IN HIGH TEMPERATURES RISING EACH DAY WITH MID 90S
COMMONPLACE FOR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY AND UPPER 90S FOR THE LATTER
PART OF THE WEEK. ONCE THE RIDGE MOVES OVERHEAD FOR THE COMING
WEEKEND...HIGHS WILL EASILY BREAK THE 100 DEGREE MARK OVER THE
DESERTS. THIS WILL BE THE WARMEST AIR SO FAR THIS YEAR...BUT WILL
STILL BE ROUGHLY 10 DEGREES SHY OF ANY RECORDS.

&&

.AVIATION...
SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA INCLUDING KPHX...KIWA...AND KSDL...AND
SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA AND SOUTHWEST ARIZONA INCLUDING KIPL AND KBLH...

ASIDE FROM SOME FEW/SCT HIGH CLOUDS...WEATHER IMPACTS SHOULD BE
MINIMAL ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING. LIGHT DIURNALLY
DRIVEN WINDS ARE EXPECTED AT ALL SITES NEXT 24 HOURS AND VFR
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT ALL TERMINALS.

AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDED TAFS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...
DRIER AND WARMER CONDITIONS TO MAKE THEIR WAY INTO THE REGION
THROUGH THE PERIOD AS HIGH PRESSURE GRADUALLY STRENGTHENS OVER THE
DESERT SOUTHWEST...WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES RISING TO NEAR...OR JUST
ABOVE 100 DEGREES AT MANY LOWER DESERT LOCATIONS FROM FRIDAY ONWARD
INTO NEXT WEEKEND. HUMIDITIES ARE EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY FALL OFF DAY
BY DAY PARTIALLY A RESULT OF THE INCREASING TEMPERATURES. RH VALUES
WEDNESDAY RANGE FROM AROUND 10 PERCENT TO THE UPPER TEENS AND BY THE
WEEKEND MOST DESERT LOCALES DROP INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS. DESPITE THE
LOW RH VALUES...THE COMBINATION OF LIGHT WINDS AND FAIR-GOOD
OVERNIGHT RECOVERIES WILL KEEP FIRE DANGER LEVELS AT RELATIVELY LOW
LEVELS THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.

&&

.PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AZ...NONE.
CA...NONE.
&&

$$

VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/PHOENIX

DISCUSSION...VASQUEZ/KUHLMAN
AVIATION...CB
FIRE WEATHER...PERCHA/CB




000
FXUS65 KPSR 251151
AFDPSR
AFDPSR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PHOENIX AZ
450 AM MST MON MAY 25 2015

.UPDATE...UPDATED AVIATION AND FIRE WEATHER DISCUSSIONS.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ONE LAST WEAK WEATHER SYSTEM WILL MOVE ACROSS NORTHERN ARIZONA INTO
EAST-CENTRAL ARIZONA TODAY ALLOWING FOR SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS AND A
FEW THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN AREAS THIS AFTERNOON. A
GRADUAL WARMING AND DRYING TREND WILL TAKE PLACE THIS WEEK WITH
TEMPERATURES RETURNING TO SEASONAL NORMALS BY THURSDAY AND THEN EVEN
EXCEEDING THE 100 DEGREE MARK BY THE COMING WEEKEND.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
ONE COMPACT SHORTWAVE TROUGH EXITED THE STATE LAST EVENING WHILE
ANOTHER QUICKLY APPROACHES FROM NORTHWEST. THIS NEXT SHORTWAVE IS
DEFINITELY WEAKER...BUT STILL HAS ENOUGH FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH IT
TO GENERATE SOME ONGOING SHOWERS WEST OF FLAGSTAFF. THE FORECAST
TRACK WILL BRING THIS FEATURE THROUGH EAST-CENTRAL ARIZONA THIS
AFTERNOON WHICH SHOULD ALLOW FOR MORE SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT OVER HIGHER TERRAIN AREAS NORTH AND EAST OF PHOENIX AS
SOME LINGERING MOISTURE STILL REMAINS IN PLACE. NOT REALLY EXPECTING
MUCH IF ANY SHOWER ACTIVITY OVER OUR AREA...BUT WE MAY BE ABLE TO
MANAGE TO GET SOME IN FAR EASTERN GILA COUNTY. TEMPERATURES TODAY
WILL CONTINUE THEIR UPWARD CLIMB...BUT JUST GRADUALLY AS HIGHS
SHOULD REACH INTO THE LOWER 90S OVER THE DESERTS.

THE REST OF THE WEEK WILL BE CHARACTERIZED BY DRIER
CONDITIONS...INCREASING HEIGHTS ALOFT AND CONSIDERABLE WARMING WHICH
WILL FINALLY BRING OUR TEMPERATURES BACK TO SEASONAL NORMALS BY LATE
IN THE WEEK. WHILE THERE WILL BE FAIRLY WEAK PERSISTENT WESTERLY
FLOW ALOFT...MODELS DO SHOW A WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH PASSING THROUGH
ON WEDNESDAY BRINGING SOME MID AND HIGH CLOUDS. REGIONAL 500MB
HEIGHTS WILL RISE FROM AROUND 574DM TODAY TO 580DM FOR TUESDAY
THROUGH THURSDAY AND THEN RISE AGAIN FOR LATE IN THE WEEK INTO THE
WEEKEND...REACHING HEIGHTS NEAR 585DM. THE 585DM 500MB HEIGHTS MOVE
IN FRIDAY NIGHT AS A FAIRLY STRONG PACIFIC RIDGE SHIFTS
NORTHEASTWARD INTO THE DESERT SOUTHWEST AND GREAT BASIN. THIS
PATTERN WILL RESULT IN HIGH TEMPERATURES RISING EACH DAY WITH MID 90S
COMMONPLACE FOR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY AND UPPER 90S FOR THE LATTER
PART OF THE WEEK. ONCE THE RIDGE MOVES OVERHEAD FOR THE COMING
WEEKEND...HIGHS WILL EASILY BREAK THE 100 DEGREE MARK OVER THE
DESERTS. THIS WILL BE THE WARMEST AIR SO FAR THIS YEAR...BUT WILL
STILL BE ROUGHLY 10 DEGREES SHY OF ANY RECORDS.

&&

.AVIATION...
SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA INCLUDING KPHX...KIWA...AND KSDL...AND
SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA AND SOUTHWEST ARIZONA INCLUDING KIPL AND KBLH...

ASIDE FROM SOME FEW/SCT HIGH CLOUDS...WEATHER IMPACTS SHOULD BE
MINIMAL ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING. LIGHT DIURNALLY
DRIVEN WINDS ARE EXPECTED AT ALL SITES NEXT 24 HOURS AND VFR
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT ALL TERMINALS.

AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDED TAFS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...
DRIER AND WARMER CONDITIONS TO MAKE THEIR WAY INTO THE REGION
THROUGH THE PERIOD AS HIGH PRESSURE GRADUALLY STRENGTHENS OVER THE
DESERT SOUTHWEST...WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES RISING TO NEAR...OR JUST
ABOVE 100 DEGREES AT MANY LOWER DESERT LOCATIONS FROM FRIDAY ONWARD
INTO NEXT WEEKEND. HUMIDITIES ARE EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY FALL OFF DAY
BY DAY PARTIALLY A RESULT OF THE INCREASING TEMPERATURES. RH VALUES
WEDNESDAY RANGE FROM AROUND 10 PERCENT TO THE UPPER TEENS AND BY THE
WEEKEND MOST DESERT LOCALES DROP INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS. DESPITE THE
LOW RH VALUES...THE COMBINATION OF LIGHT WINDS AND FAIR-GOOD
OVERNIGHT RECOVERIES WILL KEEP FIRE DANGER LEVELS AT RELATIVELY LOW
LEVELS THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.

&&

.PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AZ...NONE.
CA...NONE.
&&

$$

VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/PHOENIX

DISCUSSION...KUHLMAN
AVIATION...CB
FIRE WEATHER...PERCHA/CB





000
FXUS65 KPSR 251151 AAA
AFDPSR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PHOENIX AZ
450 AM MST MON MAY 25 2015

.UPDATE...UPDATED AVIATION AND FIRE WEATHER DISCUSSIONS.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ONE LAST WEAK WEATHER SYSTEM WILL MOVE ACROSS NORTHERN ARIZONA INTO
EAST-CENTRAL ARIZONA TODAY ALLOWING FOR SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS AND A
FEW THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN AREAS THIS AFTERNOON. A
GRADUAL WARMING AND DRYING TREND WILL TAKE PLACE THIS WEEK WITH
TEMPERATURES RETURNING TO SEASONAL NORMALS BY THURSDAY AND THEN EVEN
EXCEEDING THE 100 DEGREE MARK BY THE COMING WEEKEND.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
ONE COMPACT SHORTWAVE TROUGH EXITED THE STATE LAST EVENING WHILE
ANOTHER QUICKLY APPROACHES FROM NORTHWEST. THIS NEXT SHORTWAVE IS
DEFINITELY WEAKER...BUT STILL HAS ENOUGH FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH IT
TO GENERATE SOME ONGOING SHOWERS WEST OF FLAGSTAFF. THE FORECAST
TRACK WILL BRING THIS FEATURE THROUGH EAST-CENTRAL ARIZONA THIS
AFTERNOON WHICH SHOULD ALLOW FOR MORE SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT OVER HIGHER TERRAIN AREAS NORTH AND EAST OF PHOENIX AS
SOME LINGERING MOISTURE STILL REMAINS IN PLACE. NOT REALLY EXPECTING
MUCH IF ANY SHOWER ACTIVITY OVER OUR AREA...BUT WE MAY BE ABLE TO
MANAGE TO GET SOME IN FAR EASTERN GILA COUNTY. TEMPERATURES TODAY
WILL CONTINUE THEIR UPWARD CLIMB...BUT JUST GRADUALLY AS HIGHS
SHOULD REACH INTO THE LOWER 90S OVER THE DESERTS.

THE REST OF THE WEEK WILL BE CHARACTERIZED BY DRIER
CONDITIONS...INCREASING HEIGHTS ALOFT AND CONSIDERABLE WARMING WHICH
WILL FINALLY BRING OUR TEMPERATURES BACK TO SEASONAL NORMALS BY LATE
IN THE WEEK. WHILE THERE WILL BE FAIRLY WEAK PERSISTENT WESTERLY
FLOW ALOFT...MODELS DO SHOW A WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH PASSING THROUGH
ON WEDNESDAY BRINGING SOME MID AND HIGH CLOUDS. REGIONAL 500MB
HEIGHTS WILL RISE FROM AROUND 574DM TODAY TO 580DM FOR TUESDAY
THROUGH THURSDAY AND THEN RISE AGAIN FOR LATE IN THE WEEK INTO THE
WEEKEND...REACHING HEIGHTS NEAR 585DM. THE 585DM 500MB HEIGHTS MOVE
IN FRIDAY NIGHT AS A FAIRLY STRONG PACIFIC RIDGE SHIFTS
NORTHEASTWARD INTO THE DESERT SOUTHWEST AND GREAT BASIN. THIS
PATTERN WILL RESULT IN HIGH TEMPERATURES RISING EACH DAY WITH MID 90S
COMMONPLACE FOR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY AND UPPER 90S FOR THE LATTER
PART OF THE WEEK. ONCE THE RIDGE MOVES OVERHEAD FOR THE COMING
WEEKEND...HIGHS WILL EASILY BREAK THE 100 DEGREE MARK OVER THE
DESERTS. THIS WILL BE THE WARMEST AIR SO FAR THIS YEAR...BUT WILL
STILL BE ROUGHLY 10 DEGREES SHY OF ANY RECORDS.

&&

.AVIATION...
SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA INCLUDING KPHX...KIWA...AND KSDL...AND
SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA AND SOUTHWEST ARIZONA INCLUDING KIPL AND KBLH...

ASIDE FROM SOME FEW/SCT HIGH CLOUDS...WEATHER IMPACTS SHOULD BE
MINIMAL ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING. LIGHT DIURNALLY
DRIVEN WINDS ARE EXPECTED AT ALL SITES NEXT 24 HOURS AND VFR
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT ALL TERMINALS.

AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDED TAFS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...
DRIER AND WARMER CONDITIONS TO MAKE THEIR WAY INTO THE REGION
THROUGH THE PERIOD AS HIGH PRESSURE GRADUALLY STRENGTHENS OVER THE
DESERT SOUTHWEST...WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES RISING TO NEAR...OR JUST
ABOVE 100 DEGREES AT MANY LOWER DESERT LOCATIONS FROM FRIDAY ONWARD
INTO NEXT WEEKEND. HUMIDITIES ARE EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY FALL OFF DAY
BY DAY PARTIALLY A RESULT OF THE INCREASING TEMPERATURES. RH VALUES
WEDNESDAY RANGE FROM AROUND 10 PERCENT TO THE UPPER TEENS AND BY THE
WEEKEND MOST DESERT LOCALES DROP INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS. DESPITE THE
LOW RH VALUES...THE COMBINATION OF LIGHT WINDS AND FAIR-GOOD
OVERNIGHT RECOVERIES WILL KEEP FIRE DANGER LEVELS AT RELATIVELY LOW
LEVELS THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.

&&

.PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AZ...NONE.
CA...NONE.
&&

$$

VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/PHOENIX

DISCUSSION...KUHLMAN
AVIATION...CB
FIRE WEATHER...PERCHA/CB



000
FXUS65 KPSR 251151 AAA
AFDPSR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PHOENIX AZ
450 AM MST MON MAY 25 2015

.UPDATE...UPDATED AVIATION AND FIRE WEATHER DISCUSSIONS.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ONE LAST WEAK WEATHER SYSTEM WILL MOVE ACROSS NORTHERN ARIZONA INTO
EAST-CENTRAL ARIZONA TODAY ALLOWING FOR SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS AND A
FEW THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN AREAS THIS AFTERNOON. A
GRADUAL WARMING AND DRYING TREND WILL TAKE PLACE THIS WEEK WITH
TEMPERATURES RETURNING TO SEASONAL NORMALS BY THURSDAY AND THEN EVEN
EXCEEDING THE 100 DEGREE MARK BY THE COMING WEEKEND.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
ONE COMPACT SHORTWAVE TROUGH EXITED THE STATE LAST EVENING WHILE
ANOTHER QUICKLY APPROACHES FROM NORTHWEST. THIS NEXT SHORTWAVE IS
DEFINITELY WEAKER...BUT STILL HAS ENOUGH FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH IT
TO GENERATE SOME ONGOING SHOWERS WEST OF FLAGSTAFF. THE FORECAST
TRACK WILL BRING THIS FEATURE THROUGH EAST-CENTRAL ARIZONA THIS
AFTERNOON WHICH SHOULD ALLOW FOR MORE SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT OVER HIGHER TERRAIN AREAS NORTH AND EAST OF PHOENIX AS
SOME LINGERING MOISTURE STILL REMAINS IN PLACE. NOT REALLY EXPECTING
MUCH IF ANY SHOWER ACTIVITY OVER OUR AREA...BUT WE MAY BE ABLE TO
MANAGE TO GET SOME IN FAR EASTERN GILA COUNTY. TEMPERATURES TODAY
WILL CONTINUE THEIR UPWARD CLIMB...BUT JUST GRADUALLY AS HIGHS
SHOULD REACH INTO THE LOWER 90S OVER THE DESERTS.

THE REST OF THE WEEK WILL BE CHARACTERIZED BY DRIER
CONDITIONS...INCREASING HEIGHTS ALOFT AND CONSIDERABLE WARMING WHICH
WILL FINALLY BRING OUR TEMPERATURES BACK TO SEASONAL NORMALS BY LATE
IN THE WEEK. WHILE THERE WILL BE FAIRLY WEAK PERSISTENT WESTERLY
FLOW ALOFT...MODELS DO SHOW A WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH PASSING THROUGH
ON WEDNESDAY BRINGING SOME MID AND HIGH CLOUDS. REGIONAL 500MB
HEIGHTS WILL RISE FROM AROUND 574DM TODAY TO 580DM FOR TUESDAY
THROUGH THURSDAY AND THEN RISE AGAIN FOR LATE IN THE WEEK INTO THE
WEEKEND...REACHING HEIGHTS NEAR 585DM. THE 585DM 500MB HEIGHTS MOVE
IN FRIDAY NIGHT AS A FAIRLY STRONG PACIFIC RIDGE SHIFTS
NORTHEASTWARD INTO THE DESERT SOUTHWEST AND GREAT BASIN. THIS
PATTERN WILL RESULT IN HIGH TEMPERATURES RISING EACH DAY WITH MID 90S
COMMONPLACE FOR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY AND UPPER 90S FOR THE LATTER
PART OF THE WEEK. ONCE THE RIDGE MOVES OVERHEAD FOR THE COMING
WEEKEND...HIGHS WILL EASILY BREAK THE 100 DEGREE MARK OVER THE
DESERTS. THIS WILL BE THE WARMEST AIR SO FAR THIS YEAR...BUT WILL
STILL BE ROUGHLY 10 DEGREES SHY OF ANY RECORDS.

&&

.AVIATION...
SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA INCLUDING KPHX...KIWA...AND KSDL...AND
SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA AND SOUTHWEST ARIZONA INCLUDING KIPL AND KBLH...

ASIDE FROM SOME FEW/SCT HIGH CLOUDS...WEATHER IMPACTS SHOULD BE
MINIMAL ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING. LIGHT DIURNALLY
DRIVEN WINDS ARE EXPECTED AT ALL SITES NEXT 24 HOURS AND VFR
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT ALL TERMINALS.

AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDED TAFS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...
DRIER AND WARMER CONDITIONS TO MAKE THEIR WAY INTO THE REGION
THROUGH THE PERIOD AS HIGH PRESSURE GRADUALLY STRENGTHENS OVER THE
DESERT SOUTHWEST...WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES RISING TO NEAR...OR JUST
ABOVE 100 DEGREES AT MANY LOWER DESERT LOCATIONS FROM FRIDAY ONWARD
INTO NEXT WEEKEND. HUMIDITIES ARE EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY FALL OFF DAY
BY DAY PARTIALLY A RESULT OF THE INCREASING TEMPERATURES. RH VALUES
WEDNESDAY RANGE FROM AROUND 10 PERCENT TO THE UPPER TEENS AND BY THE
WEEKEND MOST DESERT LOCALES DROP INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS. DESPITE THE
LOW RH VALUES...THE COMBINATION OF LIGHT WINDS AND FAIR-GOOD
OVERNIGHT RECOVERIES WILL KEEP FIRE DANGER LEVELS AT RELATIVELY LOW
LEVELS THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.

&&

.PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AZ...NONE.
CA...NONE.
&&

$$

VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/PHOENIX

DISCUSSION...KUHLMAN
AVIATION...CB
FIRE WEATHER...PERCHA/CB




000
FXUS65 KPSR 251151 AAA
AFDPSR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PHOENIX AZ
450 AM MST MON MAY 25 2015

.UPDATE...UPDATED AVIATION AND FIRE WEATHER DISCUSSIONS.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ONE LAST WEAK WEATHER SYSTEM WILL MOVE ACROSS NORTHERN ARIZONA INTO
EAST-CENTRAL ARIZONA TODAY ALLOWING FOR SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS AND A
FEW THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN AREAS THIS AFTERNOON. A
GRADUAL WARMING AND DRYING TREND WILL TAKE PLACE THIS WEEK WITH
TEMPERATURES RETURNING TO SEASONAL NORMALS BY THURSDAY AND THEN EVEN
EXCEEDING THE 100 DEGREE MARK BY THE COMING WEEKEND.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
ONE COMPACT SHORTWAVE TROUGH EXITED THE STATE LAST EVENING WHILE
ANOTHER QUICKLY APPROACHES FROM NORTHWEST. THIS NEXT SHORTWAVE IS
DEFINITELY WEAKER...BUT STILL HAS ENOUGH FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH IT
TO GENERATE SOME ONGOING SHOWERS WEST OF FLAGSTAFF. THE FORECAST
TRACK WILL BRING THIS FEATURE THROUGH EAST-CENTRAL ARIZONA THIS
AFTERNOON WHICH SHOULD ALLOW FOR MORE SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT OVER HIGHER TERRAIN AREAS NORTH AND EAST OF PHOENIX AS
SOME LINGERING MOISTURE STILL REMAINS IN PLACE. NOT REALLY EXPECTING
MUCH IF ANY SHOWER ACTIVITY OVER OUR AREA...BUT WE MAY BE ABLE TO
MANAGE TO GET SOME IN FAR EASTERN GILA COUNTY. TEMPERATURES TODAY
WILL CONTINUE THEIR UPWARD CLIMB...BUT JUST GRADUALLY AS HIGHS
SHOULD REACH INTO THE LOWER 90S OVER THE DESERTS.

THE REST OF THE WEEK WILL BE CHARACTERIZED BY DRIER
CONDITIONS...INCREASING HEIGHTS ALOFT AND CONSIDERABLE WARMING WHICH
WILL FINALLY BRING OUR TEMPERATURES BACK TO SEASONAL NORMALS BY LATE
IN THE WEEK. WHILE THERE WILL BE FAIRLY WEAK PERSISTENT WESTERLY
FLOW ALOFT...MODELS DO SHOW A WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH PASSING THROUGH
ON WEDNESDAY BRINGING SOME MID AND HIGH CLOUDS. REGIONAL 500MB
HEIGHTS WILL RISE FROM AROUND 574DM TODAY TO 580DM FOR TUESDAY
THROUGH THURSDAY AND THEN RISE AGAIN FOR LATE IN THE WEEK INTO THE
WEEKEND...REACHING HEIGHTS NEAR 585DM. THE 585DM 500MB HEIGHTS MOVE
IN FRIDAY NIGHT AS A FAIRLY STRONG PACIFIC RIDGE SHIFTS
NORTHEASTWARD INTO THE DESERT SOUTHWEST AND GREAT BASIN. THIS
PATTERN WILL RESULT IN HIGH TEMPERATURES RISING EACH DAY WITH MID 90S
COMMONPLACE FOR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY AND UPPER 90S FOR THE LATTER
PART OF THE WEEK. ONCE THE RIDGE MOVES OVERHEAD FOR THE COMING
WEEKEND...HIGHS WILL EASILY BREAK THE 100 DEGREE MARK OVER THE
DESERTS. THIS WILL BE THE WARMEST AIR SO FAR THIS YEAR...BUT WILL
STILL BE ROUGHLY 10 DEGREES SHY OF ANY RECORDS.

&&

.AVIATION...
SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA INCLUDING KPHX...KIWA...AND KSDL...AND
SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA AND SOUTHWEST ARIZONA INCLUDING KIPL AND KBLH...

ASIDE FROM SOME FEW/SCT HIGH CLOUDS...WEATHER IMPACTS SHOULD BE
MINIMAL ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING. LIGHT DIURNALLY
DRIVEN WINDS ARE EXPECTED AT ALL SITES NEXT 24 HOURS AND VFR
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT ALL TERMINALS.

AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDED TAFS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...
DRIER AND WARMER CONDITIONS TO MAKE THEIR WAY INTO THE REGION
THROUGH THE PERIOD AS HIGH PRESSURE GRADUALLY STRENGTHENS OVER THE
DESERT SOUTHWEST...WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES RISING TO NEAR...OR JUST
ABOVE 100 DEGREES AT MANY LOWER DESERT LOCATIONS FROM FRIDAY ONWARD
INTO NEXT WEEKEND. HUMIDITIES ARE EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY FALL OFF DAY
BY DAY PARTIALLY A RESULT OF THE INCREASING TEMPERATURES. RH VALUES
WEDNESDAY RANGE FROM AROUND 10 PERCENT TO THE UPPER TEENS AND BY THE
WEEKEND MOST DESERT LOCALES DROP INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS. DESPITE THE
LOW RH VALUES...THE COMBINATION OF LIGHT WINDS AND FAIR-GOOD
OVERNIGHT RECOVERIES WILL KEEP FIRE DANGER LEVELS AT RELATIVELY LOW
LEVELS THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.

&&

.PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AZ...NONE.
CA...NONE.
&&

$$

VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/PHOENIX

DISCUSSION...KUHLMAN
AVIATION...CB
FIRE WEATHER...PERCHA/CB




000
FXUS65 KPSR 251151 AAA
AFDPSR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PHOENIX AZ
450 AM MST MON MAY 25 2015

.UPDATE...UPDATED AVIATION AND FIRE WEATHER DISCUSSIONS.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ONE LAST WEAK WEATHER SYSTEM WILL MOVE ACROSS NORTHERN ARIZONA INTO
EAST-CENTRAL ARIZONA TODAY ALLOWING FOR SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS AND A
FEW THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN AREAS THIS AFTERNOON. A
GRADUAL WARMING AND DRYING TREND WILL TAKE PLACE THIS WEEK WITH
TEMPERATURES RETURNING TO SEASONAL NORMALS BY THURSDAY AND THEN EVEN
EXCEEDING THE 100 DEGREE MARK BY THE COMING WEEKEND.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
ONE COMPACT SHORTWAVE TROUGH EXITED THE STATE LAST EVENING WHILE
ANOTHER QUICKLY APPROACHES FROM NORTHWEST. THIS NEXT SHORTWAVE IS
DEFINITELY WEAKER...BUT STILL HAS ENOUGH FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH IT
TO GENERATE SOME ONGOING SHOWERS WEST OF FLAGSTAFF. THE FORECAST
TRACK WILL BRING THIS FEATURE THROUGH EAST-CENTRAL ARIZONA THIS
AFTERNOON WHICH SHOULD ALLOW FOR MORE SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT OVER HIGHER TERRAIN AREAS NORTH AND EAST OF PHOENIX AS
SOME LINGERING MOISTURE STILL REMAINS IN PLACE. NOT REALLY EXPECTING
MUCH IF ANY SHOWER ACTIVITY OVER OUR AREA...BUT WE MAY BE ABLE TO
MANAGE TO GET SOME IN FAR EASTERN GILA COUNTY. TEMPERATURES TODAY
WILL CONTINUE THEIR UPWARD CLIMB...BUT JUST GRADUALLY AS HIGHS
SHOULD REACH INTO THE LOWER 90S OVER THE DESERTS.

THE REST OF THE WEEK WILL BE CHARACTERIZED BY DRIER
CONDITIONS...INCREASING HEIGHTS ALOFT AND CONSIDERABLE WARMING WHICH
WILL FINALLY BRING OUR TEMPERATURES BACK TO SEASONAL NORMALS BY LATE
IN THE WEEK. WHILE THERE WILL BE FAIRLY WEAK PERSISTENT WESTERLY
FLOW ALOFT...MODELS DO SHOW A WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH PASSING THROUGH
ON WEDNESDAY BRINGING SOME MID AND HIGH CLOUDS. REGIONAL 500MB
HEIGHTS WILL RISE FROM AROUND 574DM TODAY TO 580DM FOR TUESDAY
THROUGH THURSDAY AND THEN RISE AGAIN FOR LATE IN THE WEEK INTO THE
WEEKEND...REACHING HEIGHTS NEAR 585DM. THE 585DM 500MB HEIGHTS MOVE
IN FRIDAY NIGHT AS A FAIRLY STRONG PACIFIC RIDGE SHIFTS
NORTHEASTWARD INTO THE DESERT SOUTHWEST AND GREAT BASIN. THIS
PATTERN WILL RESULT IN HIGH TEMPERATURES RISING EACH DAY WITH MID 90S
COMMONPLACE FOR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY AND UPPER 90S FOR THE LATTER
PART OF THE WEEK. ONCE THE RIDGE MOVES OVERHEAD FOR THE COMING
WEEKEND...HIGHS WILL EASILY BREAK THE 100 DEGREE MARK OVER THE
DESERTS. THIS WILL BE THE WARMEST AIR SO FAR THIS YEAR...BUT WILL
STILL BE ROUGHLY 10 DEGREES SHY OF ANY RECORDS.

&&

.AVIATION...
SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA INCLUDING KPHX...KIWA...AND KSDL...AND
SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA AND SOUTHWEST ARIZONA INCLUDING KIPL AND KBLH...

ASIDE FROM SOME FEW/SCT HIGH CLOUDS...WEATHER IMPACTS SHOULD BE
MINIMAL ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING. LIGHT DIURNALLY
DRIVEN WINDS ARE EXPECTED AT ALL SITES NEXT 24 HOURS AND VFR
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT ALL TERMINALS.

AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDED TAFS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...
DRIER AND WARMER CONDITIONS TO MAKE THEIR WAY INTO THE REGION
THROUGH THE PERIOD AS HIGH PRESSURE GRADUALLY STRENGTHENS OVER THE
DESERT SOUTHWEST...WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES RISING TO NEAR...OR JUST
ABOVE 100 DEGREES AT MANY LOWER DESERT LOCATIONS FROM FRIDAY ONWARD
INTO NEXT WEEKEND. HUMIDITIES ARE EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY FALL OFF DAY
BY DAY PARTIALLY A RESULT OF THE INCREASING TEMPERATURES. RH VALUES
WEDNESDAY RANGE FROM AROUND 10 PERCENT TO THE UPPER TEENS AND BY THE
WEEKEND MOST DESERT LOCALES DROP INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS. DESPITE THE
LOW RH VALUES...THE COMBINATION OF LIGHT WINDS AND FAIR-GOOD
OVERNIGHT RECOVERIES WILL KEEP FIRE DANGER LEVELS AT RELATIVELY LOW
LEVELS THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.

&&

.PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AZ...NONE.
CA...NONE.
&&

$$

VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/PHOENIX

DISCUSSION...KUHLMAN
AVIATION...CB
FIRE WEATHER...PERCHA/CB




000
FXUS65 KPSR 251151 AAA
AFDPSR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PHOENIX AZ
450 AM MST MON MAY 25 2015

.UPDATE...UPDATED AVIATION AND FIRE WEATHER DISCUSSIONS.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ONE LAST WEAK WEATHER SYSTEM WILL MOVE ACROSS NORTHERN ARIZONA INTO
EAST-CENTRAL ARIZONA TODAY ALLOWING FOR SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS AND A
FEW THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN AREAS THIS AFTERNOON. A
GRADUAL WARMING AND DRYING TREND WILL TAKE PLACE THIS WEEK WITH
TEMPERATURES RETURNING TO SEASONAL NORMALS BY THURSDAY AND THEN EVEN
EXCEEDING THE 100 DEGREE MARK BY THE COMING WEEKEND.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
ONE COMPACT SHORTWAVE TROUGH EXITED THE STATE LAST EVENING WHILE
ANOTHER QUICKLY APPROACHES FROM NORTHWEST. THIS NEXT SHORTWAVE IS
DEFINITELY WEAKER...BUT STILL HAS ENOUGH FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH IT
TO GENERATE SOME ONGOING SHOWERS WEST OF FLAGSTAFF. THE FORECAST
TRACK WILL BRING THIS FEATURE THROUGH EAST-CENTRAL ARIZONA THIS
AFTERNOON WHICH SHOULD ALLOW FOR MORE SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT OVER HIGHER TERRAIN AREAS NORTH AND EAST OF PHOENIX AS
SOME LINGERING MOISTURE STILL REMAINS IN PLACE. NOT REALLY EXPECTING
MUCH IF ANY SHOWER ACTIVITY OVER OUR AREA...BUT WE MAY BE ABLE TO
MANAGE TO GET SOME IN FAR EASTERN GILA COUNTY. TEMPERATURES TODAY
WILL CONTINUE THEIR UPWARD CLIMB...BUT JUST GRADUALLY AS HIGHS
SHOULD REACH INTO THE LOWER 90S OVER THE DESERTS.

THE REST OF THE WEEK WILL BE CHARACTERIZED BY DRIER
CONDITIONS...INCREASING HEIGHTS ALOFT AND CONSIDERABLE WARMING WHICH
WILL FINALLY BRING OUR TEMPERATURES BACK TO SEASONAL NORMALS BY LATE
IN THE WEEK. WHILE THERE WILL BE FAIRLY WEAK PERSISTENT WESTERLY
FLOW ALOFT...MODELS DO SHOW A WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH PASSING THROUGH
ON WEDNESDAY BRINGING SOME MID AND HIGH CLOUDS. REGIONAL 500MB
HEIGHTS WILL RISE FROM AROUND 574DM TODAY TO 580DM FOR TUESDAY
THROUGH THURSDAY AND THEN RISE AGAIN FOR LATE IN THE WEEK INTO THE
WEEKEND...REACHING HEIGHTS NEAR 585DM. THE 585DM 500MB HEIGHTS MOVE
IN FRIDAY NIGHT AS A FAIRLY STRONG PACIFIC RIDGE SHIFTS
NORTHEASTWARD INTO THE DESERT SOUTHWEST AND GREAT BASIN. THIS
PATTERN WILL RESULT IN HIGH TEMPERATURES RISING EACH DAY WITH MID 90S
COMMONPLACE FOR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY AND UPPER 90S FOR THE LATTER
PART OF THE WEEK. ONCE THE RIDGE MOVES OVERHEAD FOR THE COMING
WEEKEND...HIGHS WILL EASILY BREAK THE 100 DEGREE MARK OVER THE
DESERTS. THIS WILL BE THE WARMEST AIR SO FAR THIS YEAR...BUT WILL
STILL BE ROUGHLY 10 DEGREES SHY OF ANY RECORDS.

&&

.AVIATION...
SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA INCLUDING KPHX...KIWA...AND KSDL...AND
SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA AND SOUTHWEST ARIZONA INCLUDING KIPL AND KBLH...

ASIDE FROM SOME FEW/SCT HIGH CLOUDS...WEATHER IMPACTS SHOULD BE
MINIMAL ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING. LIGHT DIURNALLY
DRIVEN WINDS ARE EXPECTED AT ALL SITES NEXT 24 HOURS AND VFR
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT ALL TERMINALS.

AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDED TAFS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...
DRIER AND WARMER CONDITIONS TO MAKE THEIR WAY INTO THE REGION
THROUGH THE PERIOD AS HIGH PRESSURE GRADUALLY STRENGTHENS OVER THE
DESERT SOUTHWEST...WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES RISING TO NEAR...OR JUST
ABOVE 100 DEGREES AT MANY LOWER DESERT LOCATIONS FROM FRIDAY ONWARD
INTO NEXT WEEKEND. HUMIDITIES ARE EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY FALL OFF DAY
BY DAY PARTIALLY A RESULT OF THE INCREASING TEMPERATURES. RH VALUES
WEDNESDAY RANGE FROM AROUND 10 PERCENT TO THE UPPER TEENS AND BY THE
WEEKEND MOST DESERT LOCALES DROP INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS. DESPITE THE
LOW RH VALUES...THE COMBINATION OF LIGHT WINDS AND FAIR-GOOD
OVERNIGHT RECOVERIES WILL KEEP FIRE DANGER LEVELS AT RELATIVELY LOW
LEVELS THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.

&&

.PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AZ...NONE.
CA...NONE.
&&

$$

VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/PHOENIX

DISCUSSION...KUHLMAN
AVIATION...CB
FIRE WEATHER...PERCHA/CB




000
FXUS65 KPSR 251151 AAA
AFDPSR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PHOENIX AZ
450 AM MST MON MAY 25 2015

.UPDATE...UPDATED AVIATION AND FIRE WEATHER DISCUSSIONS.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ONE LAST WEAK WEATHER SYSTEM WILL MOVE ACROSS NORTHERN ARIZONA INTO
EAST-CENTRAL ARIZONA TODAY ALLOWING FOR SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS AND A
FEW THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN AREAS THIS AFTERNOON. A
GRADUAL WARMING AND DRYING TREND WILL TAKE PLACE THIS WEEK WITH
TEMPERATURES RETURNING TO SEASONAL NORMALS BY THURSDAY AND THEN EVEN
EXCEEDING THE 100 DEGREE MARK BY THE COMING WEEKEND.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
ONE COMPACT SHORTWAVE TROUGH EXITED THE STATE LAST EVENING WHILE
ANOTHER QUICKLY APPROACHES FROM NORTHWEST. THIS NEXT SHORTWAVE IS
DEFINITELY WEAKER...BUT STILL HAS ENOUGH FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH IT
TO GENERATE SOME ONGOING SHOWERS WEST OF FLAGSTAFF. THE FORECAST
TRACK WILL BRING THIS FEATURE THROUGH EAST-CENTRAL ARIZONA THIS
AFTERNOON WHICH SHOULD ALLOW FOR MORE SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT OVER HIGHER TERRAIN AREAS NORTH AND EAST OF PHOENIX AS
SOME LINGERING MOISTURE STILL REMAINS IN PLACE. NOT REALLY EXPECTING
MUCH IF ANY SHOWER ACTIVITY OVER OUR AREA...BUT WE MAY BE ABLE TO
MANAGE TO GET SOME IN FAR EASTERN GILA COUNTY. TEMPERATURES TODAY
WILL CONTINUE THEIR UPWARD CLIMB...BUT JUST GRADUALLY AS HIGHS
SHOULD REACH INTO THE LOWER 90S OVER THE DESERTS.

THE REST OF THE WEEK WILL BE CHARACTERIZED BY DRIER
CONDITIONS...INCREASING HEIGHTS ALOFT AND CONSIDERABLE WARMING WHICH
WILL FINALLY BRING OUR TEMPERATURES BACK TO SEASONAL NORMALS BY LATE
IN THE WEEK. WHILE THERE WILL BE FAIRLY WEAK PERSISTENT WESTERLY
FLOW ALOFT...MODELS DO SHOW A WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH PASSING THROUGH
ON WEDNESDAY BRINGING SOME MID AND HIGH CLOUDS. REGIONAL 500MB
HEIGHTS WILL RISE FROM AROUND 574DM TODAY TO 580DM FOR TUESDAY
THROUGH THURSDAY AND THEN RISE AGAIN FOR LATE IN THE WEEK INTO THE
WEEKEND...REACHING HEIGHTS NEAR 585DM. THE 585DM 500MB HEIGHTS MOVE
IN FRIDAY NIGHT AS A FAIRLY STRONG PACIFIC RIDGE SHIFTS
NORTHEASTWARD INTO THE DESERT SOUTHWEST AND GREAT BASIN. THIS
PATTERN WILL RESULT IN HIGH TEMPERATURES RISING EACH DAY WITH MID 90S
COMMONPLACE FOR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY AND UPPER 90S FOR THE LATTER
PART OF THE WEEK. ONCE THE RIDGE MOVES OVERHEAD FOR THE COMING
WEEKEND...HIGHS WILL EASILY BREAK THE 100 DEGREE MARK OVER THE
DESERTS. THIS WILL BE THE WARMEST AIR SO FAR THIS YEAR...BUT WILL
STILL BE ROUGHLY 10 DEGREES SHY OF ANY RECORDS.

&&

.AVIATION...
SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA INCLUDING KPHX...KIWA...AND KSDL...AND
SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA AND SOUTHWEST ARIZONA INCLUDING KIPL AND KBLH...

ASIDE FROM SOME FEW/SCT HIGH CLOUDS...WEATHER IMPACTS SHOULD BE
MINIMAL ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING. LIGHT DIURNALLY
DRIVEN WINDS ARE EXPECTED AT ALL SITES NEXT 24 HOURS AND VFR
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT ALL TERMINALS.

AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDED TAFS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...
DRIER AND WARMER CONDITIONS TO MAKE THEIR WAY INTO THE REGION
THROUGH THE PERIOD AS HIGH PRESSURE GRADUALLY STRENGTHENS OVER THE
DESERT SOUTHWEST...WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES RISING TO NEAR...OR JUST
ABOVE 100 DEGREES AT MANY LOWER DESERT LOCATIONS FROM FRIDAY ONWARD
INTO NEXT WEEKEND. HUMIDITIES ARE EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY FALL OFF DAY
BY DAY PARTIALLY A RESULT OF THE INCREASING TEMPERATURES. RH VALUES
WEDNESDAY RANGE FROM AROUND 10 PERCENT TO THE UPPER TEENS AND BY THE
WEEKEND MOST DESERT LOCALES DROP INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS. DESPITE THE
LOW RH VALUES...THE COMBINATION OF LIGHT WINDS AND FAIR-GOOD
OVERNIGHT RECOVERIES WILL KEEP FIRE DANGER LEVELS AT RELATIVELY LOW
LEVELS THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.

&&

.PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AZ...NONE.
CA...NONE.
&&

$$

VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/PHOENIX

DISCUSSION...KUHLMAN
AVIATION...CB
FIRE WEATHER...PERCHA/CB




000
FXUS65 KPSR 251151
AFDPSR
AFDPSR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PHOENIX AZ
450 AM MST MON MAY 25 2015

.UPDATE...UPDATED AVIATION AND FIRE WEATHER DISCUSSIONS.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ONE LAST WEAK WEATHER SYSTEM WILL MOVE ACROSS NORTHERN ARIZONA INTO
EAST-CENTRAL ARIZONA TODAY ALLOWING FOR SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS AND A
FEW THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN AREAS THIS AFTERNOON. A
GRADUAL WARMING AND DRYING TREND WILL TAKE PLACE THIS WEEK WITH
TEMPERATURES RETURNING TO SEASONAL NORMALS BY THURSDAY AND THEN EVEN
EXCEEDING THE 100 DEGREE MARK BY THE COMING WEEKEND.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
ONE COMPACT SHORTWAVE TROUGH EXITED THE STATE LAST EVENING WHILE
ANOTHER QUICKLY APPROACHES FROM NORTHWEST. THIS NEXT SHORTWAVE IS
DEFINITELY WEAKER...BUT STILL HAS ENOUGH FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH IT
TO GENERATE SOME ONGOING SHOWERS WEST OF FLAGSTAFF. THE FORECAST
TRACK WILL BRING THIS FEATURE THROUGH EAST-CENTRAL ARIZONA THIS
AFTERNOON WHICH SHOULD ALLOW FOR MORE SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT OVER HIGHER TERRAIN AREAS NORTH AND EAST OF PHOENIX AS
SOME LINGERING MOISTURE STILL REMAINS IN PLACE. NOT REALLY EXPECTING
MUCH IF ANY SHOWER ACTIVITY OVER OUR AREA...BUT WE MAY BE ABLE TO
MANAGE TO GET SOME IN FAR EASTERN GILA COUNTY. TEMPERATURES TODAY
WILL CONTINUE THEIR UPWARD CLIMB...BUT JUST GRADUALLY AS HIGHS
SHOULD REACH INTO THE LOWER 90S OVER THE DESERTS.

THE REST OF THE WEEK WILL BE CHARACTERIZED BY DRIER
CONDITIONS...INCREASING HEIGHTS ALOFT AND CONSIDERABLE WARMING WHICH
WILL FINALLY BRING OUR TEMPERATURES BACK TO SEASONAL NORMALS BY LATE
IN THE WEEK. WHILE THERE WILL BE FAIRLY WEAK PERSISTENT WESTERLY
FLOW ALOFT...MODELS DO SHOW A WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH PASSING THROUGH
ON WEDNESDAY BRINGING SOME MID AND HIGH CLOUDS. REGIONAL 500MB
HEIGHTS WILL RISE FROM AROUND 574DM TODAY TO 580DM FOR TUESDAY
THROUGH THURSDAY AND THEN RISE AGAIN FOR LATE IN THE WEEK INTO THE
WEEKEND...REACHING HEIGHTS NEAR 585DM. THE 585DM 500MB HEIGHTS MOVE
IN FRIDAY NIGHT AS A FAIRLY STRONG PACIFIC RIDGE SHIFTS
NORTHEASTWARD INTO THE DESERT SOUTHWEST AND GREAT BASIN. THIS
PATTERN WILL RESULT IN HIGH TEMPERATURES RISING EACH DAY WITH MID 90S
COMMONPLACE FOR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY AND UPPER 90S FOR THE LATTER
PART OF THE WEEK. ONCE THE RIDGE MOVES OVERHEAD FOR THE COMING
WEEKEND...HIGHS WILL EASILY BREAK THE 100 DEGREE MARK OVER THE
DESERTS. THIS WILL BE THE WARMEST AIR SO FAR THIS YEAR...BUT WILL
STILL BE ROUGHLY 10 DEGREES SHY OF ANY RECORDS.

&&

.AVIATION...
SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA INCLUDING KPHX...KIWA...AND KSDL...AND
SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA AND SOUTHWEST ARIZONA INCLUDING KIPL AND KBLH...

ASIDE FROM SOME FEW/SCT HIGH CLOUDS...WEATHER IMPACTS SHOULD BE
MINIMAL ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING. LIGHT DIURNALLY
DRIVEN WINDS ARE EXPECTED AT ALL SITES NEXT 24 HOURS AND VFR
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT ALL TERMINALS.

AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDED TAFS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...
DRIER AND WARMER CONDITIONS TO MAKE THEIR WAY INTO THE REGION
THROUGH THE PERIOD AS HIGH PRESSURE GRADUALLY STRENGTHENS OVER THE
DESERT SOUTHWEST...WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES RISING TO NEAR...OR JUST
ABOVE 100 DEGREES AT MANY LOWER DESERT LOCATIONS FROM FRIDAY ONWARD
INTO NEXT WEEKEND. HUMIDITIES ARE EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY FALL OFF DAY
BY DAY PARTIALLY A RESULT OF THE INCREASING TEMPERATURES. RH VALUES
WEDNESDAY RANGE FROM AROUND 10 PERCENT TO THE UPPER TEENS AND BY THE
WEEKEND MOST DESERT LOCALES DROP INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS. DESPITE THE
LOW RH VALUES...THE COMBINATION OF LIGHT WINDS AND FAIR-GOOD
OVERNIGHT RECOVERIES WILL KEEP FIRE DANGER LEVELS AT RELATIVELY LOW
LEVELS THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.

&&

.PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AZ...NONE.
CA...NONE.
&&

$$

VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/PHOENIX

DISCUSSION...KUHLMAN
AVIATION...CB
FIRE WEATHER...PERCHA/CB





000
FXUS65 KFGZ 251018
AFDFGZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ
300 AM MST MON MAY 25 2015

.SYNOPSIS...AMPLE MOISTURE WILL COMBINE WITH A WEAK WEATHER SYSTEM
TO PRODUCE COOL TEMPERATURES AND A FEW SHOWERS TODAY. LOOK FOR
DIMINISHING SHOWERS THIS EVENING AS THE CURRENT SYSTEM MOVES
EASTWARD. STARTING TUESDAY...THE WEATHER PATTERN WILL GRADUALLY
SHIFT TO WARMER AND DRIER CONDITIONS FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...AMPLE MOISTURE AND NORTHWEST FLOW WILL REMAIN OVER
NORTHERN ARIZONA TODAY. AN AREA OF SHOWERS WAS MOVING ACROSS
NORTHWEST ARIZONA DURING THE MORNING HOURS AND LOOKS TO BRING A FEW
MORNING SHOWERS FROM SELIGMAN AND FLAGSTAFF NORTHWARD TO THE GRAND
CANYON AND KAIBAB PLATEAU. ELSEWHERE, ISOLATED SHOWERS WILL BE
POSSIBLE THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS. FOR THIS AFTERNOON...DAYTIME
HEATING WILL HELP DESTABILIZE THE ATMOSPHERE WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING AND LASTING INTO THE EARLY EVENING,
PRIMARILY ALONG AND NORTH OF THE MOGOLLON RIM. WELL BELOW NORMAL
HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE.

STARTING TUESDAY AND HEADING INTO NEXT WEEKEND...THE GENERAL TREND
WILL TO TOWARD WARMER AND DRIER CONDITIONS. ANOTHER WEAK DISTURBANCE
WILL SWING ACROSS ON WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY BUT WILL BE MUCH WARMER
THAN THE LAST SEVERAL SUCH DISTURBANCES. LOOKS LIKE ENOUGH MOISTURE
WILL LINGER FOR A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS NEAR THE ARIZONA/UTAH
BORDER AND THE FOUR CORNERS REGION THROUGH THURSDAY. AN ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORM IS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION. MODELS IN FAIRLY GOOD
AGREEMENT IN SHOWING HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING OVER ARIZONA SATRING
FRIDAY AND FOR THE COMING WEEKEND. AT THIS TIME IT LOOKS LIKE DRY
CONDITIONS AND HIGH TEMPERATURES MORE TYPICAL OF MAY ARE HEADED OUR
WAY.

&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 12Z PACKAGE...EXPECT AN AREA OF -RA WEST OF KGCN
TO SPREAD EASTWARD AFFECTING AREAS WEST OF KPGA-KFLG THROUGH 16Z.
SCATTERED SHRA AND ISOLATED TSRA WILL THEN REDEVELOP LATE MORNING
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON...MAINLY ALONG/NORTH OF THE MOGOLLON RIM. VFR
CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE PERIOD...THOUGH MVFR/BRIEF IFR
AND GUSTY WINDS WILL ACCOMPANY THE HEAVIER SHOWERS. MOST SHOWER
ACTIVITY WILL DIMINISH AFTER 03Z. AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED
FOR TAF AMENDMENTS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL
DEVELOP AGAIN TODAY. DAYTIME TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO BE WELL
BELOW NORMAL...WITH ELEVATED HUMIDITY LEVELS. ON TUESDAY...WARMER
AND DRIER CONDITIONS DEVELOP AS THE TROUGH MOVES AWAY FROM THE
STATE. A SLIGHT CHANCE OF A HIGH-BASED THUNDERSTORM WILL LINGER
ALONG THE AZ/UT BORDER.

WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...MUCH WARMER AND MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS
WILL CONTINUE. WINDS WILL REMAIN ON THE LIGHT SIDE...GENERALLY 15
MPH OR LESS.

&&

.FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC...MCCOLLUM
AVIATION...JJ
FIRE WEATHER...JJ




000
FXUS65 KFGZ 251018
AFDFGZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ
300 AM MST MON MAY 25 2015

.SYNOPSIS...AMPLE MOISTURE WILL COMBINE WITH A WEAK WEATHER SYSTEM
TO PRODUCE COOL TEMPERATURES AND A FEW SHOWERS TODAY. LOOK FOR
DIMINISHING SHOWERS THIS EVENING AS THE CURRENT SYSTEM MOVES
EASTWARD. STARTING TUESDAY...THE WEATHER PATTERN WILL GRADUALLY
SHIFT TO WARMER AND DRIER CONDITIONS FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...AMPLE MOISTURE AND NORTHWEST FLOW WILL REMAIN OVER
NORTHERN ARIZONA TODAY. AN AREA OF SHOWERS WAS MOVING ACROSS
NORTHWEST ARIZONA DURING THE MORNING HOURS AND LOOKS TO BRING A FEW
MORNING SHOWERS FROM SELIGMAN AND FLAGSTAFF NORTHWARD TO THE GRAND
CANYON AND KAIBAB PLATEAU. ELSEWHERE, ISOLATED SHOWERS WILL BE
POSSIBLE THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS. FOR THIS AFTERNOON...DAYTIME
HEATING WILL HELP DESTABILIZE THE ATMOSPHERE WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING AND LASTING INTO THE EARLY EVENING,
PRIMARILY ALONG AND NORTH OF THE MOGOLLON RIM. WELL BELOW NORMAL
HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE.

STARTING TUESDAY AND HEADING INTO NEXT WEEKEND...THE GENERAL TREND
WILL TO TOWARD WARMER AND DRIER CONDITIONS. ANOTHER WEAK DISTURBANCE
WILL SWING ACROSS ON WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY BUT WILL BE MUCH WARMER
THAN THE LAST SEVERAL SUCH DISTURBANCES. LOOKS LIKE ENOUGH MOISTURE
WILL LINGER FOR A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS NEAR THE ARIZONA/UTAH
BORDER AND THE FOUR CORNERS REGION THROUGH THURSDAY. AN ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORM IS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION. MODELS IN FAIRLY GOOD
AGREEMENT IN SHOWING HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING OVER ARIZONA SATRING
FRIDAY AND FOR THE COMING WEEKEND. AT THIS TIME IT LOOKS LIKE DRY
CONDITIONS AND HIGH TEMPERATURES MORE TYPICAL OF MAY ARE HEADED OUR
WAY.

&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 12Z PACKAGE...EXPECT AN AREA OF -RA WEST OF KGCN
TO SPREAD EASTWARD AFFECTING AREAS WEST OF KPGA-KFLG THROUGH 16Z.
SCATTERED SHRA AND ISOLATED TSRA WILL THEN REDEVELOP LATE MORNING
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON...MAINLY ALONG/NORTH OF THE MOGOLLON RIM. VFR
CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE PERIOD...THOUGH MVFR/BRIEF IFR
AND GUSTY WINDS WILL ACCOMPANY THE HEAVIER SHOWERS. MOST SHOWER
ACTIVITY WILL DIMINISH AFTER 03Z. AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED
FOR TAF AMENDMENTS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL
DEVELOP AGAIN TODAY. DAYTIME TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO BE WELL
BELOW NORMAL...WITH ELEVATED HUMIDITY LEVELS. ON TUESDAY...WARMER
AND DRIER CONDITIONS DEVELOP AS THE TROUGH MOVES AWAY FROM THE
STATE. A SLIGHT CHANCE OF A HIGH-BASED THUNDERSTORM WILL LINGER
ALONG THE AZ/UT BORDER.

WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...MUCH WARMER AND MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS
WILL CONTINUE. WINDS WILL REMAIN ON THE LIGHT SIDE...GENERALLY 15
MPH OR LESS.

&&

.FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC...MCCOLLUM
AVIATION...JJ
FIRE WEATHER...JJ




000
FXUS65 KFGZ 251018
AFDFGZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ
300 AM MST MON MAY 25 2015

.SYNOPSIS...AMPLE MOISTURE WILL COMBINE WITH A WEAK WEATHER SYSTEM
TO PRODUCE COOL TEMPERATURES AND A FEW SHOWERS TODAY. LOOK FOR
DIMINISHING SHOWERS THIS EVENING AS THE CURRENT SYSTEM MOVES
EASTWARD. STARTING TUESDAY...THE WEATHER PATTERN WILL GRADUALLY
SHIFT TO WARMER AND DRIER CONDITIONS FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...AMPLE MOISTURE AND NORTHWEST FLOW WILL REMAIN OVER
NORTHERN ARIZONA TODAY. AN AREA OF SHOWERS WAS MOVING ACROSS
NORTHWEST ARIZONA DURING THE MORNING HOURS AND LOOKS TO BRING A FEW
MORNING SHOWERS FROM SELIGMAN AND FLAGSTAFF NORTHWARD TO THE GRAND
CANYON AND KAIBAB PLATEAU. ELSEWHERE, ISOLATED SHOWERS WILL BE
POSSIBLE THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS. FOR THIS AFTERNOON...DAYTIME
HEATING WILL HELP DESTABILIZE THE ATMOSPHERE WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING AND LASTING INTO THE EARLY EVENING,
PRIMARILY ALONG AND NORTH OF THE MOGOLLON RIM. WELL BELOW NORMAL
HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE.

STARTING TUESDAY AND HEADING INTO NEXT WEEKEND...THE GENERAL TREND
WILL TO TOWARD WARMER AND DRIER CONDITIONS. ANOTHER WEAK DISTURBANCE
WILL SWING ACROSS ON WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY BUT WILL BE MUCH WARMER
THAN THE LAST SEVERAL SUCH DISTURBANCES. LOOKS LIKE ENOUGH MOISTURE
WILL LINGER FOR A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS NEAR THE ARIZONA/UTAH
BORDER AND THE FOUR CORNERS REGION THROUGH THURSDAY. AN ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORM IS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION. MODELS IN FAIRLY GOOD
AGREEMENT IN SHOWING HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING OVER ARIZONA SATRING
FRIDAY AND FOR THE COMING WEEKEND. AT THIS TIME IT LOOKS LIKE DRY
CONDITIONS AND HIGH TEMPERATURES MORE TYPICAL OF MAY ARE HEADED OUR
WAY.

&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 12Z PACKAGE...EXPECT AN AREA OF -RA WEST OF KGCN
TO SPREAD EASTWARD AFFECTING AREAS WEST OF KPGA-KFLG THROUGH 16Z.
SCATTERED SHRA AND ISOLATED TSRA WILL THEN REDEVELOP LATE MORNING
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON...MAINLY ALONG/NORTH OF THE MOGOLLON RIM. VFR
CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE PERIOD...THOUGH MVFR/BRIEF IFR
AND GUSTY WINDS WILL ACCOMPANY THE HEAVIER SHOWERS. MOST SHOWER
ACTIVITY WILL DIMINISH AFTER 03Z. AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED
FOR TAF AMENDMENTS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL
DEVELOP AGAIN TODAY. DAYTIME TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO BE WELL
BELOW NORMAL...WITH ELEVATED HUMIDITY LEVELS. ON TUESDAY...WARMER
AND DRIER CONDITIONS DEVELOP AS THE TROUGH MOVES AWAY FROM THE
STATE. A SLIGHT CHANCE OF A HIGH-BASED THUNDERSTORM WILL LINGER
ALONG THE AZ/UT BORDER.

WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...MUCH WARMER AND MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS
WILL CONTINUE. WINDS WILL REMAIN ON THE LIGHT SIDE...GENERALLY 15
MPH OR LESS.

&&

.FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC...MCCOLLUM
AVIATION...JJ
FIRE WEATHER...JJ




000
FXUS65 KFGZ 251018
AFDFGZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ
300 AM MST MON MAY 25 2015

.SYNOPSIS...AMPLE MOISTURE WILL COMBINE WITH A WEAK WEATHER SYSTEM
TO PRODUCE COOL TEMPERATURES AND A FEW SHOWERS TODAY. LOOK FOR
DIMINISHING SHOWERS THIS EVENING AS THE CURRENT SYSTEM MOVES
EASTWARD. STARTING TUESDAY...THE WEATHER PATTERN WILL GRADUALLY
SHIFT TO WARMER AND DRIER CONDITIONS FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...AMPLE MOISTURE AND NORTHWEST FLOW WILL REMAIN OVER
NORTHERN ARIZONA TODAY. AN AREA OF SHOWERS WAS MOVING ACROSS
NORTHWEST ARIZONA DURING THE MORNING HOURS AND LOOKS TO BRING A FEW
MORNING SHOWERS FROM SELIGMAN AND FLAGSTAFF NORTHWARD TO THE GRAND
CANYON AND KAIBAB PLATEAU. ELSEWHERE, ISOLATED SHOWERS WILL BE
POSSIBLE THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS. FOR THIS AFTERNOON...DAYTIME
HEATING WILL HELP DESTABILIZE THE ATMOSPHERE WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING AND LASTING INTO THE EARLY EVENING,
PRIMARILY ALONG AND NORTH OF THE MOGOLLON RIM. WELL BELOW NORMAL
HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE.

STARTING TUESDAY AND HEADING INTO NEXT WEEKEND...THE GENERAL TREND
WILL TO TOWARD WARMER AND DRIER CONDITIONS. ANOTHER WEAK DISTURBANCE
WILL SWING ACROSS ON WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY BUT WILL BE MUCH WARMER
THAN THE LAST SEVERAL SUCH DISTURBANCES. LOOKS LIKE ENOUGH MOISTURE
WILL LINGER FOR A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS NEAR THE ARIZONA/UTAH
BORDER AND THE FOUR CORNERS REGION THROUGH THURSDAY. AN ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORM IS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION. MODELS IN FAIRLY GOOD
AGREEMENT IN SHOWING HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING OVER ARIZONA SATRING
FRIDAY AND FOR THE COMING WEEKEND. AT THIS TIME IT LOOKS LIKE DRY
CONDITIONS AND HIGH TEMPERATURES MORE TYPICAL OF MAY ARE HEADED OUR
WAY.

&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 12Z PACKAGE...EXPECT AN AREA OF -RA WEST OF KGCN
TO SPREAD EASTWARD AFFECTING AREAS WEST OF KPGA-KFLG THROUGH 16Z.
SCATTERED SHRA AND ISOLATED TSRA WILL THEN REDEVELOP LATE MORNING
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON...MAINLY ALONG/NORTH OF THE MOGOLLON RIM. VFR
CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE PERIOD...THOUGH MVFR/BRIEF IFR
AND GUSTY WINDS WILL ACCOMPANY THE HEAVIER SHOWERS. MOST SHOWER
ACTIVITY WILL DIMINISH AFTER 03Z. AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED
FOR TAF AMENDMENTS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL
DEVELOP AGAIN TODAY. DAYTIME TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO BE WELL
BELOW NORMAL...WITH ELEVATED HUMIDITY LEVELS. ON TUESDAY...WARMER
AND DRIER CONDITIONS DEVELOP AS THE TROUGH MOVES AWAY FROM THE
STATE. A SLIGHT CHANCE OF A HIGH-BASED THUNDERSTORM WILL LINGER
ALONG THE AZ/UT BORDER.

WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...MUCH WARMER AND MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS
WILL CONTINUE. WINDS WILL REMAIN ON THE LIGHT SIDE...GENERALLY 15
MPH OR LESS.

&&

.FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC...MCCOLLUM
AVIATION...JJ
FIRE WEATHER...JJ




000
FXUS65 KTWC 251007
AFDTWC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ
305 AM MST MON MAY 25 2015

.SYNOPSIS...A CHANCE OF SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE MEMORIAL DAY ACROSS
THE WHITE MOUNTAINS. DRY CONDITIONS WILL THEN PREVAIL TUESDAY INTO
NEXT WEEKEND. EXPECT NEAR NORMAL DAYTIME TEMPERATURES TUESDAY
THROUGH FRIDAY...THEN WARMER TEMPERATURES NEXT WEEKEND WITH HIGHS
APPROACHING THE CENTURY MARK AT TUCSON SUNDAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...A CLEAR SKY PREVAILED ACROSS SE AZ THIS MORNING.
DEEPEST MOISTURE CONTINUES TO RESIDE ACROSS THE NRN HALF OF AZ AND
WITH ANOTHER SHORT WAVE PUSHING THRU THAT AREA LATER TODAY...THERE
WILL BE A CHANCE FOR AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS IN THE WHITES. ELSEWHERE IT WILL BE DRY UNDER A SUNNY
TO MOSTLY SUNNY SKY ON THIS MEMORIAL DAY WITH HIGHS 3 TO 5 DEGREES
WARMER THAN SUNDAY BUT STILL REMAINING BELOW NORMAL.

FLOW ALOFT ON TUESDAY WILL BECOME SW AS YET ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL TROF
APPROACHES THE AREA. THIS TROF WILL MOVE INTO WRN AZ WED AND THEN
ACROSS SE AZ ON THURSDAY. NOT A LOT OF MOISTURE WILL BE ASSOCIATED
WITH THIS SYSTEM BUT WITH TROF AXIS MOVING THRU ON THURSDAY...COULD
SEE A QUICK SHOWER UP IN THE WHITES IN THE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING
HOURS. THIS TROF WILL KICK UP THE BREEZE THOUGH BOTH DAYS.

DRY NW FLOW ALOFT ON FRIDAY AS UPPER RIDGE AMPLIFIES TO OUR WEST
INTO CALIFORNIA. THIS RIDGE WILL GRADUALLY MOVE EAST OVER THE STATE
THIS WEEKEND WITH MOST OF THE AREA SEEING ABOVE NORMAL HIGH
TEMPERATURES FOR THE FIRST TIME IN ALMOST TWO WEEKS. WITH THE RIDGE
AXIS OVER THE STATE ON SUNDAY...THE WARMEST TEMPERATURES OF 2015 ARE
LIKELY AS THE MONTH OF MAY CLOSES. MODEL LOW LEVEL THICKNESS VALUES
ON SUNDAY AND MOS GUIDANCE WOULD SUGGEST THAT TUCSON WILL BE CLOSE
TO BREAKING THE 100 DEGREES ICE.

&&

.AVIATION...VALID THRU 26/12Z.
SKC MOST AREAS. SCTD -SHRA/TS PSBL ACROSS THE WHITE MTNS NE OF KSAD
BTWN 26/19Z AND 27/03Z. SFC WIND THIS AFTERNOON WILL BE WLY/NWLY AT
10-18 KTS WITH GUSTS OF 20-25 KTS. SURFACE WIND WILL BE LESS THAN 10
KTS AT OTHER TIMES. AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR TAF
AMENDMENTS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...THERE IS A CHANCE OF SHOWERS MAINLY ACROSS THE WHITE
MOUNTAINS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. DRY CONDITIONS WILL THEN
PREVAIL AREA-WIDE TUESDAY INTO NEXT WEEKEND. EXPECT NORMAL DIURNAL
WIND TRENDS...WITH GUSTS DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS DUE TO DAYTIME
HEATING. A WARMING TREND WILL OCCUR THROUGH TUESDAY FOLLOWED BY
CONTINUED NEAR NORMAL DAYTIME TEMPERATURES WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.
EXPECT ABOVE NORMAL HIGH TEMPERATURES NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...YOUTUBE...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/TUCSON



000
FXUS65 KTWC 251007
AFDTWC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ
305 AM MST MON MAY 25 2015

.SYNOPSIS...A CHANCE OF SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE MEMORIAL DAY ACROSS
THE WHITE MOUNTAINS. DRY CONDITIONS WILL THEN PREVAIL TUESDAY INTO
NEXT WEEKEND. EXPECT NEAR NORMAL DAYTIME TEMPERATURES TUESDAY
THROUGH FRIDAY...THEN WARMER TEMPERATURES NEXT WEEKEND WITH HIGHS
APPROACHING THE CENTURY MARK AT TUCSON SUNDAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...A CLEAR SKY PREVAILED ACROSS SE AZ THIS MORNING.
DEEPEST MOISTURE CONTINUES TO RESIDE ACROSS THE NRN HALF OF AZ AND
WITH ANOTHER SHORT WAVE PUSHING THRU THAT AREA LATER TODAY...THERE
WILL BE A CHANCE FOR AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS IN THE WHITES. ELSEWHERE IT WILL BE DRY UNDER A SUNNY
TO MOSTLY SUNNY SKY ON THIS MEMORIAL DAY WITH HIGHS 3 TO 5 DEGREES
WARMER THAN SUNDAY BUT STILL REMAINING BELOW NORMAL.

FLOW ALOFT ON TUESDAY WILL BECOME SW AS YET ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL TROF
APPROACHES THE AREA. THIS TROF WILL MOVE INTO WRN AZ WED AND THEN
ACROSS SE AZ ON THURSDAY. NOT A LOT OF MOISTURE WILL BE ASSOCIATED
WITH THIS SYSTEM BUT WITH TROF AXIS MOVING THRU ON THURSDAY...COULD
SEE A QUICK SHOWER UP IN THE WHITES IN THE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING
HOURS. THIS TROF WILL KICK UP THE BREEZE THOUGH BOTH DAYS.

DRY NW FLOW ALOFT ON FRIDAY AS UPPER RIDGE AMPLIFIES TO OUR WEST
INTO CALIFORNIA. THIS RIDGE WILL GRADUALLY MOVE EAST OVER THE STATE
THIS WEEKEND WITH MOST OF THE AREA SEEING ABOVE NORMAL HIGH
TEMPERATURES FOR THE FIRST TIME IN ALMOST TWO WEEKS. WITH THE RIDGE
AXIS OVER THE STATE ON SUNDAY...THE WARMEST TEMPERATURES OF 2015 ARE
LIKELY AS THE MONTH OF MAY CLOSES. MODEL LOW LEVEL THICKNESS VALUES
ON SUNDAY AND MOS GUIDANCE WOULD SUGGEST THAT TUCSON WILL BE CLOSE
TO BREAKING THE 100 DEGREES ICE.

&&

.AVIATION...VALID THRU 26/12Z.
SKC MOST AREAS. SCTD -SHRA/TS PSBL ACROSS THE WHITE MTNS NE OF KSAD
BTWN 26/19Z AND 27/03Z. SFC WIND THIS AFTERNOON WILL BE WLY/NWLY AT
10-18 KTS WITH GUSTS OF 20-25 KTS. SURFACE WIND WILL BE LESS THAN 10
KTS AT OTHER TIMES. AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR TAF
AMENDMENTS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...THERE IS A CHANCE OF SHOWERS MAINLY ACROSS THE WHITE
MOUNTAINS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. DRY CONDITIONS WILL THEN
PREVAIL AREA-WIDE TUESDAY INTO NEXT WEEKEND. EXPECT NORMAL DIURNAL
WIND TRENDS...WITH GUSTS DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS DUE TO DAYTIME
HEATING. A WARMING TREND WILL OCCUR THROUGH TUESDAY FOLLOWED BY
CONTINUED NEAR NORMAL DAYTIME TEMPERATURES WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.
EXPECT ABOVE NORMAL HIGH TEMPERATURES NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...YOUTUBE...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/TUCSON




000
FXUS65 KPSR 250949
AFDPSR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PHOENIX AZ
249 AM MST MON MAY 25 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ONE LAST WEAK WEATHER SYSTEM WILL MOVE ACROSS NORTHERN ARIZONA INTO
EAST-CENTRAL ARIZONA TODAY ALLOWING FOR SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS AND A
FEW THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN AREAS THIS AFTERNOON. A
GRADUAL WARMING AND DRYING TREND WILL TAKE PLACE THIS WEEK WITH
TEMPERATURES RETURNING TO SEASONAL NORMALS BY THURSDAY AND THEN EVEN
EXCEEDING THE 100 DEGREE MARK BY THE COMING WEEKEND.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
ONE COMPACT SHORTWAVE TROUGH EXITED THE STATE LAST EVENING WHILE
ANOTHER QUICKLY APPROACHES FROM NORTHWEST. THIS NEXT SHORTWAVE IS
DEFINITELY WEAKER...BUT STILL HAS ENOUGH FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH IT
TO GENERATE SOME ONGOING SHOWERS WEST OF FLAGSTAFF. THE FORECAST
TRACK WILL BRING THIS FEATURE THROUGH EAST-CENTRAL ARIZONA THIS
AFTERNOON WHICH SHOULD ALLOW FOR MORE SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT OVER HIGHER TERRAIN AREAS NORTH AND EAST OF PHOENIX AS
SOME LINGERING MOISTURE STILL REMAINS IN PLACE. NOT REALLY EXPECTING
MUCH IF ANY SHOWER ACTIVITY OVER OUR AREA...BUT WE MAY BE ABLE TO
MANAGE TO GET SOME IN FAR EASTERN GILA COUNTY. TEMPERATURES TODAY
WILL CONTINUE THEIR UPWARD CLIMB...BUT JUST GRADUALLY AS HIGHS
SHOULD REACH INTO THE LOWER 90S OVER THE DESERTS.

THE REST OF THE WEEK WILL BE CHARACTERIZED BY DRIER
CONDITIONS...INCREASING HEIGHTS ALOFT AND CONSIDERABLE WARMING WHICH
WILL FINALLY BRING OUR TEMPERATURES BACK TO SEASONAL NORMALS BY LATE
IN THE WEEK. WHILE THERE WILL BE FAIRLY WEAK PERSISTENT WESTERLY
FLOW ALOFT...MODELS DO SHOW A WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH PASSING THROUGH
ON WEDNESDAY BRINGING SOME MID AND HIGH CLOUDS. REGIONAL 500MB
HEIGHTS WILL RISE FROM AROUND 574DM TODAY TO 580DM FOR TUESDAY
THROUGH THURSDAY AND THEN RISE AGAIN FOR LATE IN THE WEEK INTO THE
WEEKEND...REACHING HEIGHTS NEAR 585DM. THE 585DM 500MB HEIGHTS MOVE
IN FRIDAY NIGHT AS A FAIRLY STRONG PACIFIC RIDGE SHIFTS
NORTHEASTWARD INTO THE DESERT SOUTHWEST AND GREAT BASIN. THIS
PATTERN WILL RESULT IN HIGH TEMPERATURES RISING EACH DAY WITH MID 90S
COMMONPLACE FOR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY AND UPPER 90S FOR THE LATTER
PART OF THE WEEK. ONCE THE RIDGE MOVES OVERHEAD FOR THE COMING
WEEKEND...HIGHS WILL EASILY BREAK THE 100 DEGREE MARK OVER THE
DESERTS. THIS WILL BE THE WARMEST AIR SO FAR THIS YEAR...BUT WILL
STILL BE ROUGHLY 10 DEGREES SHY OF ANY RECORDS.

&&

.AVIATION...
SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA INCLUDING KPHX...KIWA...AND KSDL...AND
SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA AND SOUTHWEST ARIZONA INCLUDING KIPL AND KBLH...

ASIDE FROM SOME FEW/SCT HIGH CLOUDS...WEATHER IMPACTS SHOULD BE
MINIMAL ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH MONDAY EVENING. LIGHT DIURNALLY
DRIVEN WINDS ARE EXPECTED AT ALL SITES.

AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDED TAFS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...
DRIER AND WARMER CONDITIONS TO MAKE THEIR WAY INTO THE REGION
THROUGH THE PERIOD AS HIGH PRESSURE GRADUALLY STRENGTHENS OVER THE
DESERT SOUTHWEST...WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES RISING TO NEAR...OR JUST
ABOVE 100 DEGREES AT MANY LOWER DESERT LOCATIONS FROM FRIDAY ONWARD
INTO NEXT WEEKEND. ALTHOUGH HUMIDITIES ARE EXPECTED TO FALL INTO THE
HIGH SINGLE-DIGIT TO MID-TEEN RANGE EACH AFTERNOON...THE COMBINATION
OF LIGHT WINDS AND FAIR-GOOD OVERNIGHT RECOVERIES WILL KEEP FIRE
DANGER LEVELS AT RELATIVELY LOW LEVELS THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.

&&

.PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AZ...NONE.
CA...NONE.
&&

$$

VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/PHOENIX

DISCUSSION...KUHLMAN
AVIATION...LEINS
FIRE WEATHER...PERCHA



000
FXUS65 KPSR 250949
AFDPSR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PHOENIX AZ
249 AM MST MON MAY 25 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ONE LAST WEAK WEATHER SYSTEM WILL MOVE ACROSS NORTHERN ARIZONA INTO
EAST-CENTRAL ARIZONA TODAY ALLOWING FOR SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS AND A
FEW THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN AREAS THIS AFTERNOON. A
GRADUAL WARMING AND DRYING TREND WILL TAKE PLACE THIS WEEK WITH
TEMPERATURES RETURNING TO SEASONAL NORMALS BY THURSDAY AND THEN EVEN
EXCEEDING THE 100 DEGREE MARK BY THE COMING WEEKEND.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
ONE COMPACT SHORTWAVE TROUGH EXITED THE STATE LAST EVENING WHILE
ANOTHER QUICKLY APPROACHES FROM NORTHWEST. THIS NEXT SHORTWAVE IS
DEFINITELY WEAKER...BUT STILL HAS ENOUGH FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH IT
TO GENERATE SOME ONGOING SHOWERS WEST OF FLAGSTAFF. THE FORECAST
TRACK WILL BRING THIS FEATURE THROUGH EAST-CENTRAL ARIZONA THIS
AFTERNOON WHICH SHOULD ALLOW FOR MORE SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT OVER HIGHER TERRAIN AREAS NORTH AND EAST OF PHOENIX AS
SOME LINGERING MOISTURE STILL REMAINS IN PLACE. NOT REALLY EXPECTING
MUCH IF ANY SHOWER ACTIVITY OVER OUR AREA...BUT WE MAY BE ABLE TO
MANAGE TO GET SOME IN FAR EASTERN GILA COUNTY. TEMPERATURES TODAY
WILL CONTINUE THEIR UPWARD CLIMB...BUT JUST GRADUALLY AS HIGHS
SHOULD REACH INTO THE LOWER 90S OVER THE DESERTS.

THE REST OF THE WEEK WILL BE CHARACTERIZED BY DRIER
CONDITIONS...INCREASING HEIGHTS ALOFT AND CONSIDERABLE WARMING WHICH
WILL FINALLY BRING OUR TEMPERATURES BACK TO SEASONAL NORMALS BY LATE
IN THE WEEK. WHILE THERE WILL BE FAIRLY WEAK PERSISTENT WESTERLY
FLOW ALOFT...MODELS DO SHOW A WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH PASSING THROUGH
ON WEDNESDAY BRINGING SOME MID AND HIGH CLOUDS. REGIONAL 500MB
HEIGHTS WILL RISE FROM AROUND 574DM TODAY TO 580DM FOR TUESDAY
THROUGH THURSDAY AND THEN RISE AGAIN FOR LATE IN THE WEEK INTO THE
WEEKEND...REACHING HEIGHTS NEAR 585DM. THE 585DM 500MB HEIGHTS MOVE
IN FRIDAY NIGHT AS A FAIRLY STRONG PACIFIC RIDGE SHIFTS
NORTHEASTWARD INTO THE DESERT SOUTHWEST AND GREAT BASIN. THIS
PATTERN WILL RESULT IN HIGH TEMPERATURES RISING EACH DAY WITH MID 90S
COMMONPLACE FOR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY AND UPPER 90S FOR THE LATTER
PART OF THE WEEK. ONCE THE RIDGE MOVES OVERHEAD FOR THE COMING
WEEKEND...HIGHS WILL EASILY BREAK THE 100 DEGREE MARK OVER THE
DESERTS. THIS WILL BE THE WARMEST AIR SO FAR THIS YEAR...BUT WILL
STILL BE ROUGHLY 10 DEGREES SHY OF ANY RECORDS.

&&

.AVIATION...
SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA INCLUDING KPHX...KIWA...AND KSDL...AND
SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA AND SOUTHWEST ARIZONA INCLUDING KIPL AND KBLH...

ASIDE FROM SOME FEW/SCT HIGH CLOUDS...WEATHER IMPACTS SHOULD BE
MINIMAL ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH MONDAY EVENING. LIGHT DIURNALLY
DRIVEN WINDS ARE EXPECTED AT ALL SITES.

AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDED TAFS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...
DRIER AND WARMER CONDITIONS TO MAKE THEIR WAY INTO THE REGION
THROUGH THE PERIOD AS HIGH PRESSURE GRADUALLY STRENGTHENS OVER THE
DESERT SOUTHWEST...WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES RISING TO NEAR...OR JUST
ABOVE 100 DEGREES AT MANY LOWER DESERT LOCATIONS FROM FRIDAY ONWARD
INTO NEXT WEEKEND. ALTHOUGH HUMIDITIES ARE EXPECTED TO FALL INTO THE
HIGH SINGLE-DIGIT TO MID-TEEN RANGE EACH AFTERNOON...THE COMBINATION
OF LIGHT WINDS AND FAIR-GOOD OVERNIGHT RECOVERIES WILL KEEP FIRE
DANGER LEVELS AT RELATIVELY LOW LEVELS THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.

&&

.PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AZ...NONE.
CA...NONE.
&&

$$

VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/PHOENIX

DISCUSSION...KUHLMAN
AVIATION...LEINS
FIRE WEATHER...PERCHA



000
FXUS65 KPSR 250949
AFDPSR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PHOENIX AZ
249 AM MST MON MAY 25 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ONE LAST WEAK WEATHER SYSTEM WILL MOVE ACROSS NORTHERN ARIZONA INTO
EAST-CENTRAL ARIZONA TODAY ALLOWING FOR SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS AND A
FEW THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN AREAS THIS AFTERNOON. A
GRADUAL WARMING AND DRYING TREND WILL TAKE PLACE THIS WEEK WITH
TEMPERATURES RETURNING TO SEASONAL NORMALS BY THURSDAY AND THEN EVEN
EXCEEDING THE 100 DEGREE MARK BY THE COMING WEEKEND.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
ONE COMPACT SHORTWAVE TROUGH EXITED THE STATE LAST EVENING WHILE
ANOTHER QUICKLY APPROACHES FROM NORTHWEST. THIS NEXT SHORTWAVE IS
DEFINITELY WEAKER...BUT STILL HAS ENOUGH FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH IT
TO GENERATE SOME ONGOING SHOWERS WEST OF FLAGSTAFF. THE FORECAST
TRACK WILL BRING THIS FEATURE THROUGH EAST-CENTRAL ARIZONA THIS
AFTERNOON WHICH SHOULD ALLOW FOR MORE SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT OVER HIGHER TERRAIN AREAS NORTH AND EAST OF PHOENIX AS
SOME LINGERING MOISTURE STILL REMAINS IN PLACE. NOT REALLY EXPECTING
MUCH IF ANY SHOWER ACTIVITY OVER OUR AREA...BUT WE MAY BE ABLE TO
MANAGE TO GET SOME IN FAR EASTERN GILA COUNTY. TEMPERATURES TODAY
WILL CONTINUE THEIR UPWARD CLIMB...BUT JUST GRADUALLY AS HIGHS
SHOULD REACH INTO THE LOWER 90S OVER THE DESERTS.

THE REST OF THE WEEK WILL BE CHARACTERIZED BY DRIER
CONDITIONS...INCREASING HEIGHTS ALOFT AND CONSIDERABLE WARMING WHICH
WILL FINALLY BRING OUR TEMPERATURES BACK TO SEASONAL NORMALS BY LATE
IN THE WEEK. WHILE THERE WILL BE FAIRLY WEAK PERSISTENT WESTERLY
FLOW ALOFT...MODELS DO SHOW A WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH PASSING THROUGH
ON WEDNESDAY BRINGING SOME MID AND HIGH CLOUDS. REGIONAL 500MB
HEIGHTS WILL RISE FROM AROUND 574DM TODAY TO 580DM FOR TUESDAY
THROUGH THURSDAY AND THEN RISE AGAIN FOR LATE IN THE WEEK INTO THE
WEEKEND...REACHING HEIGHTS NEAR 585DM. THE 585DM 500MB HEIGHTS MOVE
IN FRIDAY NIGHT AS A FAIRLY STRONG PACIFIC RIDGE SHIFTS
NORTHEASTWARD INTO THE DESERT SOUTHWEST AND GREAT BASIN. THIS
PATTERN WILL RESULT IN HIGH TEMPERATURES RISING EACH DAY WITH MID 90S
COMMONPLACE FOR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY AND UPPER 90S FOR THE LATTER
PART OF THE WEEK. ONCE THE RIDGE MOVES OVERHEAD FOR THE COMING
WEEKEND...HIGHS WILL EASILY BREAK THE 100 DEGREE MARK OVER THE
DESERTS. THIS WILL BE THE WARMEST AIR SO FAR THIS YEAR...BUT WILL
STILL BE ROUGHLY 10 DEGREES SHY OF ANY RECORDS.

&&

.AVIATION...
SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA INCLUDING KPHX...KIWA...AND KSDL...AND
SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA AND SOUTHWEST ARIZONA INCLUDING KIPL AND KBLH...

ASIDE FROM SOME FEW/SCT HIGH CLOUDS...WEATHER IMPACTS SHOULD BE
MINIMAL ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH MONDAY EVENING. LIGHT DIURNALLY
DRIVEN WINDS ARE EXPECTED AT ALL SITES.

AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDED TAFS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...
DRIER AND WARMER CONDITIONS TO MAKE THEIR WAY INTO THE REGION
THROUGH THE PERIOD AS HIGH PRESSURE GRADUALLY STRENGTHENS OVER THE
DESERT SOUTHWEST...WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES RISING TO NEAR...OR JUST
ABOVE 100 DEGREES AT MANY LOWER DESERT LOCATIONS FROM FRIDAY ONWARD
INTO NEXT WEEKEND. ALTHOUGH HUMIDITIES ARE EXPECTED TO FALL INTO THE
HIGH SINGLE-DIGIT TO MID-TEEN RANGE EACH AFTERNOON...THE COMBINATION
OF LIGHT WINDS AND FAIR-GOOD OVERNIGHT RECOVERIES WILL KEEP FIRE
DANGER LEVELS AT RELATIVELY LOW LEVELS THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.

&&

.PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AZ...NONE.
CA...NONE.
&&

$$

VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/PHOENIX

DISCUSSION...KUHLMAN
AVIATION...LEINS
FIRE WEATHER...PERCHA



000
FXUS65 KPSR 250949
AFDPSR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PHOENIX AZ
249 AM MST MON MAY 25 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ONE LAST WEAK WEATHER SYSTEM WILL MOVE ACROSS NORTHERN ARIZONA INTO
EAST-CENTRAL ARIZONA TODAY ALLOWING FOR SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS AND A
FEW THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN AREAS THIS AFTERNOON. A
GRADUAL WARMING AND DRYING TREND WILL TAKE PLACE THIS WEEK WITH
TEMPERATURES RETURNING TO SEASONAL NORMALS BY THURSDAY AND THEN EVEN
EXCEEDING THE 100 DEGREE MARK BY THE COMING WEEKEND.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
ONE COMPACT SHORTWAVE TROUGH EXITED THE STATE LAST EVENING WHILE
ANOTHER QUICKLY APPROACHES FROM NORTHWEST. THIS NEXT SHORTWAVE IS
DEFINITELY WEAKER...BUT STILL HAS ENOUGH FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH IT
TO GENERATE SOME ONGOING SHOWERS WEST OF FLAGSTAFF. THE FORECAST
TRACK WILL BRING THIS FEATURE THROUGH EAST-CENTRAL ARIZONA THIS
AFTERNOON WHICH SHOULD ALLOW FOR MORE SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT OVER HIGHER TERRAIN AREAS NORTH AND EAST OF PHOENIX AS
SOME LINGERING MOISTURE STILL REMAINS IN PLACE. NOT REALLY EXPECTING
MUCH IF ANY SHOWER ACTIVITY OVER OUR AREA...BUT WE MAY BE ABLE TO
MANAGE TO GET SOME IN FAR EASTERN GILA COUNTY. TEMPERATURES TODAY
WILL CONTINUE THEIR UPWARD CLIMB...BUT JUST GRADUALLY AS HIGHS
SHOULD REACH INTO THE LOWER 90S OVER THE DESERTS.

THE REST OF THE WEEK WILL BE CHARACTERIZED BY DRIER
CONDITIONS...INCREASING HEIGHTS ALOFT AND CONSIDERABLE WARMING WHICH
WILL FINALLY BRING OUR TEMPERATURES BACK TO SEASONAL NORMALS BY LATE
IN THE WEEK. WHILE THERE WILL BE FAIRLY WEAK PERSISTENT WESTERLY
FLOW ALOFT...MODELS DO SHOW A WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH PASSING THROUGH
ON WEDNESDAY BRINGING SOME MID AND HIGH CLOUDS. REGIONAL 500MB
HEIGHTS WILL RISE FROM AROUND 574DM TODAY TO 580DM FOR TUESDAY
THROUGH THURSDAY AND THEN RISE AGAIN FOR LATE IN THE WEEK INTO THE
WEEKEND...REACHING HEIGHTS NEAR 585DM. THE 585DM 500MB HEIGHTS MOVE
IN FRIDAY NIGHT AS A FAIRLY STRONG PACIFIC RIDGE SHIFTS
NORTHEASTWARD INTO THE DESERT SOUTHWEST AND GREAT BASIN. THIS
PATTERN WILL RESULT IN HIGH TEMPERATURES RISING EACH DAY WITH MID 90S
COMMONPLACE FOR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY AND UPPER 90S FOR THE LATTER
PART OF THE WEEK. ONCE THE RIDGE MOVES OVERHEAD FOR THE COMING
WEEKEND...HIGHS WILL EASILY BREAK THE 100 DEGREE MARK OVER THE
DESERTS. THIS WILL BE THE WARMEST AIR SO FAR THIS YEAR...BUT WILL
STILL BE ROUGHLY 10 DEGREES SHY OF ANY RECORDS.

&&

.AVIATION...
SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA INCLUDING KPHX...KIWA...AND KSDL...AND
SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA AND SOUTHWEST ARIZONA INCLUDING KIPL AND KBLH...

ASIDE FROM SOME FEW/SCT HIGH CLOUDS...WEATHER IMPACTS SHOULD BE
MINIMAL ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH MONDAY EVENING. LIGHT DIURNALLY
DRIVEN WINDS ARE EXPECTED AT ALL SITES.

AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDED TAFS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...
DRIER AND WARMER CONDITIONS TO MAKE THEIR WAY INTO THE REGION
THROUGH THE PERIOD AS HIGH PRESSURE GRADUALLY STRENGTHENS OVER THE
DESERT SOUTHWEST...WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES RISING TO NEAR...OR JUST
ABOVE 100 DEGREES AT MANY LOWER DESERT LOCATIONS FROM FRIDAY ONWARD
INTO NEXT WEEKEND. ALTHOUGH HUMIDITIES ARE EXPECTED TO FALL INTO THE
HIGH SINGLE-DIGIT TO MID-TEEN RANGE EACH AFTERNOON...THE COMBINATION
OF LIGHT WINDS AND FAIR-GOOD OVERNIGHT RECOVERIES WILL KEEP FIRE
DANGER LEVELS AT RELATIVELY LOW LEVELS THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.

&&

.PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AZ...NONE.
CA...NONE.
&&

$$

VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/PHOENIX

DISCUSSION...KUHLMAN
AVIATION...LEINS
FIRE WEATHER...PERCHA



000
FXUS65 KTWC 250416
AFDTWC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ
915 PM MST SUN MAY 24 2015

.SYNOPSIS...A CHANCE OF SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE MEMORIAL DAY ACROSS
THE WHITE MOUNTAINS. DRY CONDITIONS WILL THEN PREVAIL TUESDAY INTO
NEXT WEEKEND. EXPECT NEAR NORMAL DAYTIME TEMPERATURES TUESDAY
THROUGH FRIDAY...THEN WARMER TEMPERATURES NEXT WEEKEND WITH HIGHS
APPROACHING THE CENTURY MARK AT TUCSON SUNDAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...SHOWERS CONTINUED TO DISSIPATE AS THE WEAK LOW TRACKS
FARTHER EAST OF THE AREA LATE THIS EVENING. CURRENT FORECAST LOOKED
IN GOOD SHAPE AS SKIES CLEAR. THUS...NO UPDATES NECESSARY THIS
EVENING. PLEASE REFER TO THE ADDITIONAL SECTIONS FOR MORE DETAILS.

&&

.AVIATION...VALID THRU 26/06Z.
SCATTERED TO BROKEN CLOUDS AT 8-12K FT AGL THIS EVENING...THEN
CLEARING SKIES FROM WEST-TO-EAST LATE TONIGHT AND CLEAR SKIES TO
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES BY DAYBREAK MONDAY. SCATTERED -SHRA TO OCCUR
ACROSS THE WHITE MOUNTAINS NE OF KSAD MONDAY AFTERNOON. SURFACE WIND
MONDAY AFTERNOON WILL BE WLY/NWLY AT 10-18 KTS WITH GUSTS OF 20-25
KTS. SURFACE WIND WILL BE LESS THAN 10 KTS AT OTHER TIMES. AVIATION
DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR TAF AMENDMENTS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...THERE IS A CHANCE OF SHOWERS MAINLY ACROSS THE WHITE
MOUNTAINS AGAIN MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. DRY CONDITIONS WILL
THEN PREVAIL AREA-WIDE TUESDAY INTO NEXT WEEKEND. EXPECT NORMAL
DIURNAL WIND TRENDS...WITH GUSTS DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS DUE TO
DAYTIME HEATING. A WARMING TREND WILL OCCUR THROUGH TUESDAY FOLLOWED
BY CONTINUED NEAR NORMAL DAYTIME TEMPERATURES WEDNESDAY THROUGH
FRIDAY. EXPECT ABOVE NORMAL HIGH TEMPERATURES NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...THE WEAK UPPER LOW IS PROGGED TO MOVE EWD INTO SW
NEW MEXICO AS AN OPEN WAVE BY MIDNIGHT TONIGHT. FOR THIS FORECAST
PACKAGE...HAVE MAINTAINED A CHANCE OF SHOWERS THIS EVENING ACROSS
THE WHITE MOUNTAINS...AND A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS MAINLY FROM
NEAR TUCSON EWD/SWD TO THE NEW MEXICO/INTERNATIONAL BORDERS. ANY
SHOWERS SHOULD BE EAST OF THIS FORECAST AREA BY AROUND MIDNIGHT
TONIGHT.

RAINFALL AMOUNTS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS WEAK SYSTEM WILL BE QUITE
LIGHT...GENERALLY RANGING FROM A TRACE UPWARD TO AROUND ONE TENTH OF
AN INCH OR SO. HOWEVER...ANY RAINFALL ON MAY 24 IS QUITE UNUSUAL.
PLEASE REFERENCE THE CLIMATE SECTION FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION. A
CHANCE OF SHOWERS CONTINUES ACROSS THE WHITE MOUNTAINS MON AND MON
EVENING WITH DRY CONDITIONS ELSEWHERE. DRY CONDITIONS WILL THEN
OCCUR AREA-WIDE LATE MON NIGHT.

THEREAFTER...FLAT UPPER RIDGE OVER THE AREA TUE WILL MOVE EWD INTO
THE CENTRAL CONUS PLAINS WED IN RESPONSE TO THE NEXT SHORTWAVE
TROUGH DEVELOPING OFF OF THE SRN CALIFORNIA COAST. THIS SYSTEM WILL
BRING SOME MAINLY HIGH CLOUDS TO THE AREA WED...THEN CLEARING SKIES
WED NIGHT AND THUR MORNING AS THE SYSTEM MOVES EWD INTO THE SRN
ROCKIES. CLEAR SKIES OR MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES THUR AFTERNOON INTO NEXT
WEEKEND AS UPPER RIDGE ALONG THE WEST COAST INITIALLY MOVES EWD
ACROSS THE SWRN CONUS.

HIGH TEMPS MON WILL BE ABOUT 5 DEGS F OR SO WARMER VERSUS THIS
AFTERNOON...AND ANOTHER 5 DEGS OR SO OF WARMING WILL CONTINUE TUE.
DAYTIME TEMPS WED-FRI WILL QUITE CLOSE TO NORMAL FOR LATE MAY.
WARMER TEMPS ARE FORECAST TO OCCUR NEXT WEEKEND IN RESPONSE TO
INCREASED HEIGHTS/THICKNESSES OVER THE AREA. THE FIRST 100 DEG TEMP
FOR TUCSON MAY OCCUR NEXT WEEKEND...WITH SUNDAY BEING THE FAVORED
DAY OF OCCURRENCE.

&&

.TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...YOUTUBE...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/TUCSON



000
FXUS65 KTWC 250416
AFDTWC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ
915 PM MST SUN MAY 24 2015

.SYNOPSIS...A CHANCE OF SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE MEMORIAL DAY ACROSS
THE WHITE MOUNTAINS. DRY CONDITIONS WILL THEN PREVAIL TUESDAY INTO
NEXT WEEKEND. EXPECT NEAR NORMAL DAYTIME TEMPERATURES TUESDAY
THROUGH FRIDAY...THEN WARMER TEMPERATURES NEXT WEEKEND WITH HIGHS
APPROACHING THE CENTURY MARK AT TUCSON SUNDAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...SHOWERS CONTINUED TO DISSIPATE AS THE WEAK LOW TRACKS
FARTHER EAST OF THE AREA LATE THIS EVENING. CURRENT FORECAST LOOKED
IN GOOD SHAPE AS SKIES CLEAR. THUS...NO UPDATES NECESSARY THIS
EVENING. PLEASE REFER TO THE ADDITIONAL SECTIONS FOR MORE DETAILS.

&&

.AVIATION...VALID THRU 26/06Z.
SCATTERED TO BROKEN CLOUDS AT 8-12K FT AGL THIS EVENING...THEN
CLEARING SKIES FROM WEST-TO-EAST LATE TONIGHT AND CLEAR SKIES TO
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES BY DAYBREAK MONDAY. SCATTERED -SHRA TO OCCUR
ACROSS THE WHITE MOUNTAINS NE OF KSAD MONDAY AFTERNOON. SURFACE WIND
MONDAY AFTERNOON WILL BE WLY/NWLY AT 10-18 KTS WITH GUSTS OF 20-25
KTS. SURFACE WIND WILL BE LESS THAN 10 KTS AT OTHER TIMES. AVIATION
DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR TAF AMENDMENTS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...THERE IS A CHANCE OF SHOWERS MAINLY ACROSS THE WHITE
MOUNTAINS AGAIN MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. DRY CONDITIONS WILL
THEN PREVAIL AREA-WIDE TUESDAY INTO NEXT WEEKEND. EXPECT NORMAL
DIURNAL WIND TRENDS...WITH GUSTS DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS DUE TO
DAYTIME HEATING. A WARMING TREND WILL OCCUR THROUGH TUESDAY FOLLOWED
BY CONTINUED NEAR NORMAL DAYTIME TEMPERATURES WEDNESDAY THROUGH
FRIDAY. EXPECT ABOVE NORMAL HIGH TEMPERATURES NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...THE WEAK UPPER LOW IS PROGGED TO MOVE EWD INTO SW
NEW MEXICO AS AN OPEN WAVE BY MIDNIGHT TONIGHT. FOR THIS FORECAST
PACKAGE...HAVE MAINTAINED A CHANCE OF SHOWERS THIS EVENING ACROSS
THE WHITE MOUNTAINS...AND A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS MAINLY FROM
NEAR TUCSON EWD/SWD TO THE NEW MEXICO/INTERNATIONAL BORDERS. ANY
SHOWERS SHOULD BE EAST OF THIS FORECAST AREA BY AROUND MIDNIGHT
TONIGHT.

RAINFALL AMOUNTS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS WEAK SYSTEM WILL BE QUITE
LIGHT...GENERALLY RANGING FROM A TRACE UPWARD TO AROUND ONE TENTH OF
AN INCH OR SO. HOWEVER...ANY RAINFALL ON MAY 24 IS QUITE UNUSUAL.
PLEASE REFERENCE THE CLIMATE SECTION FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION. A
CHANCE OF SHOWERS CONTINUES ACROSS THE WHITE MOUNTAINS MON AND MON
EVENING WITH DRY CONDITIONS ELSEWHERE. DRY CONDITIONS WILL THEN
OCCUR AREA-WIDE LATE MON NIGHT.

THEREAFTER...FLAT UPPER RIDGE OVER THE AREA TUE WILL MOVE EWD INTO
THE CENTRAL CONUS PLAINS WED IN RESPONSE TO THE NEXT SHORTWAVE
TROUGH DEVELOPING OFF OF THE SRN CALIFORNIA COAST. THIS SYSTEM WILL
BRING SOME MAINLY HIGH CLOUDS TO THE AREA WED...THEN CLEARING SKIES
WED NIGHT AND THUR MORNING AS THE SYSTEM MOVES EWD INTO THE SRN
ROCKIES. CLEAR SKIES OR MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES THUR AFTERNOON INTO NEXT
WEEKEND AS UPPER RIDGE ALONG THE WEST COAST INITIALLY MOVES EWD
ACROSS THE SWRN CONUS.

HIGH TEMPS MON WILL BE ABOUT 5 DEGS F OR SO WARMER VERSUS THIS
AFTERNOON...AND ANOTHER 5 DEGS OR SO OF WARMING WILL CONTINUE TUE.
DAYTIME TEMPS WED-FRI WILL QUITE CLOSE TO NORMAL FOR LATE MAY.
WARMER TEMPS ARE FORECAST TO OCCUR NEXT WEEKEND IN RESPONSE TO
INCREASED HEIGHTS/THICKNESSES OVER THE AREA. THE FIRST 100 DEG TEMP
FOR TUCSON MAY OCCUR NEXT WEEKEND...WITH SUNDAY BEING THE FAVORED
DAY OF OCCURRENCE.

&&

.TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...YOUTUBE...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/TUCSON




000
FXUS65 KFGZ 250408
AFDFGZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ
908 PM MST SUN MAY 24 2015

.SYNOPSIS...COOL TEMPERATURES AND A FEW SHOWERS WILL REMAIN IN THE
FORECAST FOR MEMORIAL DAY. THESE SHOWERS WILL DIMINISH ON MONDAY
EVENING. BY TUESDAY...THE WEATHER PATTERN BEGINS TO SHIFT TO WARMER
AND DRIER CONDITIONS THROUGH THE END OF THE WORK WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...A WEAK UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL MOVE THROUGH ARIZONA
TOMORROW WILL KEEP A FEW SHOWERS AND BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES IN
THE FORECAST FOR MEMORIAL DAY. DRIER AND WARMER WEATHER WILL MOVE
INTO THE REGION FROM TUESDAY ONWARD AS THE LONGWAVE PATTERN
GRADUALLY SHIFTS FROM A TROUGH TO A RIDGE BY THE END OF THE WORK
WEEK.

SO FAR MAY 2015 HAS BEEN A WET MONTH FOR MOST LOCATIONS AS COMPARED
TO SEASONAL AVERAGES. THE LAST TIME THE MONTH OF MAY HAD THIS MUCH
WIDESPREAD MOISTURE AND PRECIPITATION WAS SIX YEARS AGO BACK IN
MAY OF 2009.

THE AFTERNOON FORECAST GRIDS LOOK GOOD. NO EVENING UPDATES.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION /315 PM MST/...UNSTABLE NORTHWEST FLOW WILL FILL
IN TONIGHT BEHIND THE SOUTHERN ARIZONA SHORTWAVE...KEEPING A
CHANCE FOR SHOWERS IN THE FORECAST OVERNIGHT. ON MEMORIAL DAY...A
MINOR DISTURBANCE EMBEDDED IN THE NORTHWEST FLOW MOVES THROUGH
NORTHERN ARIZONA EXTENDING THE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. CHANCES ON
MONDAY WILL FAVOR AREAS FROM THE MOGOLLON RIM NORTH.

COOLER THAN AVERAGE TEMPERATURES CONTINUE THROUGH THE HOLIDAY
WEEKEND...THOUGH MONDAY`S HIGHS WILL WARM 5 TO 7 DEGREES OVER
TODAY`S HIGHS. A MARKEDLY DRIER AND WARMER PATTERN WILL DEVELOP
TUESDAY THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK AND INTO NEXT WEEKEND AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS BACK INTO THE REGION. TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO
RETURN CLOSE TO NORMAL BY MIDWEEK...AND WARM TO ABOVE NORMAL BY
LATE IN THE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 06Z PACKAGE...EXPECT ISOLATED SHOWERS TO
CONTINUE THIS EVENING. ON MONDAY...ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED
SHOWERS WILL REDEVELOP ALONG WITH A POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORM OR TWO.
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL...THOUGH MVFR AND GUSTY WINDS WILL
ACCOMPANY THE HEAVIER SHOWERS. AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR
TAF AMENDMENTS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL
CONTINUE THIS EVENING AS TWO AREAS OF LOW PRESSURE INTERACT OVER THE
STATE. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP
AGAIN ON MEMORIAL DAY. ON TUESDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL START TO
BUILD OVER ARIZONA WITH WARMER AND DRIER CONDITIONS.

.WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD
OVER ARIZONA WITH DRIER AND MUCH WARMER CONDITIONS. LIGHTER WINDS
THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC...BOHLIN/MCS
AVIATION...BOHLIN
FIRE WEATHER...MAS



000
FXUS65 KPSR 250319
AFDPSR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PHOENIX AZ
819 PM MST SUN MAY 24 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A SERIES OF WEAK WEATHER SYSTEMS MOVING THROUGH ARIZONA WILL KEEP
TEMPERATURES BELOW NORMAL THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE MEMORIAL DAY
WEEKEND. ANY ORGANIZED SHOWER ACTIVITY AND MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION
WILL REMAIN NORTH AND EAST OF PHOENIX ON MEMORIAL DAY. A GRADUAL
WARMING AND DRYING TREND WILL BEGIN IN THE EARLY WEEK...WITH
TEMPERATURES RETURNING TO THE UPPER 90S AND EVEN EXCEEDING THE 100
DEGREE MARK BY THE COMING WEEKEND.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
QUIET CONDITIONS PREVAIL ACROSS THE AREA THIS EVENING. THE WEAK
SHORTWAVE TROUGH THAT MOVED THROUGH THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON HAS
SHIFTED EAST...MEANWHILE THE CONVECTION THAT DEVELOPED ALONG THE RIM
HAS STARTED TO DISSIPATE WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING. WHILE SOME
CLOUDS ARE NOTED ON SATELLITE MAINLY ACROSS NEVADA AND NORTHWEST
ARIZONA...SKIES REMAIN MOSTLY CLEAR ACROSS THE LOWER DESERTS AS OF
03Z.

SUBSIDENCE BEHIND THE DEPARTING SHORTWAVE TROUGH SHOULD RESULT IN
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS FOR THE REST OF THE EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT HOURS. INHERITED FORECAST LOOKS VERY REPRESENTATIVE AND I
AM ONLY MAKING MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO TEMPS AND SKY COVER BASED ON
OBSERVATIONAL TRENDS AND INCOMING SHORT-RANGE 00Z MODEL DATA.
MEANWHILE...THE FORECAST FOR MEMORIAL DAY STILL LOOKS ON TRACK WITH
HIGHS IN THE LOWER 90S.

&&

.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
ADDITIONAL UPSTREAM SHORTWAVES/DISTURBANCES WILL BRUSH PAST OR
THROUGH THE REGION FOR THE COMING WEEK...BUT DO LITTLE BY WAY OF
USHERING IN ANY COOLER AIRMASS TEMPERATURES OR REDUCTION IN ML AND UL
THICKNESSES. THE MEAN FLOW WILL BECOME MORE ZONAL AND ULTIMATELY
SOUTHWESTERLY WHILE THE PERSISTENT NEGATIVE HEIGHT ANOMALY OVER THE
WEST MIGRATES EASTWARD AND DISSOLVES. HEIGHTS ACROSS THE REGION WILL
RISE STEADILY THROUGH THE WEEK...HERALDING A RETURN TO WARMER AND
DRIER CONDITIONS. GFS/ECMWF INDICATE THAT A WEAK PACIFIC TROUGH WILL
MOVE THROUGH THE DESERT SOUTHWEST WEDNESDAY...BUT THIS SYSTEM WILL DO
LITTLE TO TEMPER THE BUILDING HEAT. FORECAST IS WEIGHTED HEAVILY
TOWARDS THE OPERATIONAL AND ENSEMBLE-BASED ECMWF...WHICH ARE
EXHIBITING VERY LOW SPREAD AND ARE OFTEN TOP PERFORMERS IN THESE
TYPES OF SCENARIOS. WHAT THIS EQUATES TO IS LOWER DESERT HIGHS RISING
THROUGH THE 90S THROUGH MIDWEEK. HIGH TEMPERATURES MAY EXCEED THE 100
DEGREE MARK AS EARLY AS FRIDAY IN PHOENIX BUT WILL REMAIN WELL BELOW
RECORDS.

&&

.AVIATION...
SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA INCLUDING KPHX...KIWA...AND KSDL...AND
SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA AND SOUTHWEST ARIZONA INCLUDING KIPL AND KBLH...

ASIDE FROM SOME FEW/SCT HIGH CLOUDS...WEATHER IMPACTS SHOULD BE
MINIMAL ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH MONDAY EVENING. LIGHT DIURNALLY
DRIVEN WINDS ARE EXPECTED AT ALL SITES.

AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDED TAFS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...
DRIER AND WARMER CONDITIONS TO MAKE THEIR WAY INTO THE REGION
THROUGH THE PERIOD AS HIGH PRESSURE GRADUALLY STRENGTHENS OVER THE
DESERT SOUTHWEST...WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES RISING TO NEAR...OR JUST
ABOVE 100 DEGREES AT MANY LOWER DESERT LOCATIONS FROM FRIDAY ONWARD
INTO NEXT WEEKEND. ALTHOUGH HUMIDITIES ARE EXPECTED TO FALL INTO THE
HIGH SINGLE-DIGIT TO MID-TEEN RANGE EACH AFTERNOON...THE COMBINATION
OF LIGHT WINDS AND FAIR-GOOD OVERNIGHT RECOVERIES WILL KEEP FIRE
DANGER LEVELS AT RELATIVELY LOW LEVELS THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.

&&

.PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AZ...NONE.
CA...NONE.
&&

$$

VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/PHOENIX

DISCUSSION...LEINS/NOLTE/HIRSCH
AVIATION...LEINS
FIRE WEATHER...PERCHA




000
FXUS65 KPSR 250319
AFDPSR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PHOENIX AZ
819 PM MST SUN MAY 24 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A SERIES OF WEAK WEATHER SYSTEMS MOVING THROUGH ARIZONA WILL KEEP
TEMPERATURES BELOW NORMAL THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE MEMORIAL DAY
WEEKEND. ANY ORGANIZED SHOWER ACTIVITY AND MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION
WILL REMAIN NORTH AND EAST OF PHOENIX ON MEMORIAL DAY. A GRADUAL
WARMING AND DRYING TREND WILL BEGIN IN THE EARLY WEEK...WITH
TEMPERATURES RETURNING TO THE UPPER 90S AND EVEN EXCEEDING THE 100
DEGREE MARK BY THE COMING WEEKEND.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
QUIET CONDITIONS PREVAIL ACROSS THE AREA THIS EVENING. THE WEAK
SHORTWAVE TROUGH THAT MOVED THROUGH THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON HAS
SHIFTED EAST...MEANWHILE THE CONVECTION THAT DEVELOPED ALONG THE RIM
HAS STARTED TO DISSIPATE WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING. WHILE SOME
CLOUDS ARE NOTED ON SATELLITE MAINLY ACROSS NEVADA AND NORTHWEST
ARIZONA...SKIES REMAIN MOSTLY CLEAR ACROSS THE LOWER DESERTS AS OF
03Z.

SUBSIDENCE BEHIND THE DEPARTING SHORTWAVE TROUGH SHOULD RESULT IN
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS FOR THE REST OF THE EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT HOURS. INHERITED FORECAST LOOKS VERY REPRESENTATIVE AND I
AM ONLY MAKING MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO TEMPS AND SKY COVER BASED ON
OBSERVATIONAL TRENDS AND INCOMING SHORT-RANGE 00Z MODEL DATA.
MEANWHILE...THE FORECAST FOR MEMORIAL DAY STILL LOOKS ON TRACK WITH
HIGHS IN THE LOWER 90S.

&&

.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
ADDITIONAL UPSTREAM SHORTWAVES/DISTURBANCES WILL BRUSH PAST OR
THROUGH THE REGION FOR THE COMING WEEK...BUT DO LITTLE BY WAY OF
USHERING IN ANY COOLER AIRMASS TEMPERATURES OR REDUCTION IN ML AND UL
THICKNESSES. THE MEAN FLOW WILL BECOME MORE ZONAL AND ULTIMATELY
SOUTHWESTERLY WHILE THE PERSISTENT NEGATIVE HEIGHT ANOMALY OVER THE
WEST MIGRATES EASTWARD AND DISSOLVES. HEIGHTS ACROSS THE REGION WILL
RISE STEADILY THROUGH THE WEEK...HERALDING A RETURN TO WARMER AND
DRIER CONDITIONS. GFS/ECMWF INDICATE THAT A WEAK PACIFIC TROUGH WILL
MOVE THROUGH THE DESERT SOUTHWEST WEDNESDAY...BUT THIS SYSTEM WILL DO
LITTLE TO TEMPER THE BUILDING HEAT. FORECAST IS WEIGHTED HEAVILY
TOWARDS THE OPERATIONAL AND ENSEMBLE-BASED ECMWF...WHICH ARE
EXHIBITING VERY LOW SPREAD AND ARE OFTEN TOP PERFORMERS IN THESE
TYPES OF SCENARIOS. WHAT THIS EQUATES TO IS LOWER DESERT HIGHS RISING
THROUGH THE 90S THROUGH MIDWEEK. HIGH TEMPERATURES MAY EXCEED THE 100
DEGREE MARK AS EARLY AS FRIDAY IN PHOENIX BUT WILL REMAIN WELL BELOW
RECORDS.

&&

.AVIATION...
SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA INCLUDING KPHX...KIWA...AND KSDL...AND
SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA AND SOUTHWEST ARIZONA INCLUDING KIPL AND KBLH...

ASIDE FROM SOME FEW/SCT HIGH CLOUDS...WEATHER IMPACTS SHOULD BE
MINIMAL ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH MONDAY EVENING. LIGHT DIURNALLY
DRIVEN WINDS ARE EXPECTED AT ALL SITES.

AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDED TAFS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...
DRIER AND WARMER CONDITIONS TO MAKE THEIR WAY INTO THE REGION
THROUGH THE PERIOD AS HIGH PRESSURE GRADUALLY STRENGTHENS OVER THE
DESERT SOUTHWEST...WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES RISING TO NEAR...OR JUST
ABOVE 100 DEGREES AT MANY LOWER DESERT LOCATIONS FROM FRIDAY ONWARD
INTO NEXT WEEKEND. ALTHOUGH HUMIDITIES ARE EXPECTED TO FALL INTO THE
HIGH SINGLE-DIGIT TO MID-TEEN RANGE EACH AFTERNOON...THE COMBINATION
OF LIGHT WINDS AND FAIR-GOOD OVERNIGHT RECOVERIES WILL KEEP FIRE
DANGER LEVELS AT RELATIVELY LOW LEVELS THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.

&&

.PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AZ...NONE.
CA...NONE.
&&

$$

VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/PHOENIX

DISCUSSION...LEINS/NOLTE/HIRSCH
AVIATION...LEINS
FIRE WEATHER...PERCHA




000
FXUS65 KPSR 250319
AFDPSR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PHOENIX AZ
819 PM MST SUN MAY 24 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A SERIES OF WEAK WEATHER SYSTEMS MOVING THROUGH ARIZONA WILL KEEP
TEMPERATURES BELOW NORMAL THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE MEMORIAL DAY
WEEKEND. ANY ORGANIZED SHOWER ACTIVITY AND MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION
WILL REMAIN NORTH AND EAST OF PHOENIX ON MEMORIAL DAY. A GRADUAL
WARMING AND DRYING TREND WILL BEGIN IN THE EARLY WEEK...WITH
TEMPERATURES RETURNING TO THE UPPER 90S AND EVEN EXCEEDING THE 100
DEGREE MARK BY THE COMING WEEKEND.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
QUIET CONDITIONS PREVAIL ACROSS THE AREA THIS EVENING. THE WEAK
SHORTWAVE TROUGH THAT MOVED THROUGH THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON HAS
SHIFTED EAST...MEANWHILE THE CONVECTION THAT DEVELOPED ALONG THE RIM
HAS STARTED TO DISSIPATE WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING. WHILE SOME
CLOUDS ARE NOTED ON SATELLITE MAINLY ACROSS NEVADA AND NORTHWEST
ARIZONA...SKIES REMAIN MOSTLY CLEAR ACROSS THE LOWER DESERTS AS OF
03Z.

SUBSIDENCE BEHIND THE DEPARTING SHORTWAVE TROUGH SHOULD RESULT IN
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS FOR THE REST OF THE EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT HOURS. INHERITED FORECAST LOOKS VERY REPRESENTATIVE AND I
AM ONLY MAKING MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO TEMPS AND SKY COVER BASED ON
OBSERVATIONAL TRENDS AND INCOMING SHORT-RANGE 00Z MODEL DATA.
MEANWHILE...THE FORECAST FOR MEMORIAL DAY STILL LOOKS ON TRACK WITH
HIGHS IN THE LOWER 90S.

&&

.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
ADDITIONAL UPSTREAM SHORTWAVES/DISTURBANCES WILL BRUSH PAST OR
THROUGH THE REGION FOR THE COMING WEEK...BUT DO LITTLE BY WAY OF
USHERING IN ANY COOLER AIRMASS TEMPERATURES OR REDUCTION IN ML AND UL
THICKNESSES. THE MEAN FLOW WILL BECOME MORE ZONAL AND ULTIMATELY
SOUTHWESTERLY WHILE THE PERSISTENT NEGATIVE HEIGHT ANOMALY OVER THE
WEST MIGRATES EASTWARD AND DISSOLVES. HEIGHTS ACROSS THE REGION WILL
RISE STEADILY THROUGH THE WEEK...HERALDING A RETURN TO WARMER AND
DRIER CONDITIONS. GFS/ECMWF INDICATE THAT A WEAK PACIFIC TROUGH WILL
MOVE THROUGH THE DESERT SOUTHWEST WEDNESDAY...BUT THIS SYSTEM WILL DO
LITTLE TO TEMPER THE BUILDING HEAT. FORECAST IS WEIGHTED HEAVILY
TOWARDS THE OPERATIONAL AND ENSEMBLE-BASED ECMWF...WHICH ARE
EXHIBITING VERY LOW SPREAD AND ARE OFTEN TOP PERFORMERS IN THESE
TYPES OF SCENARIOS. WHAT THIS EQUATES TO IS LOWER DESERT HIGHS RISING
THROUGH THE 90S THROUGH MIDWEEK. HIGH TEMPERATURES MAY EXCEED THE 100
DEGREE MARK AS EARLY AS FRIDAY IN PHOENIX BUT WILL REMAIN WELL BELOW
RECORDS.

&&

.AVIATION...
SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA INCLUDING KPHX...KIWA...AND KSDL...AND
SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA AND SOUTHWEST ARIZONA INCLUDING KIPL AND KBLH...

ASIDE FROM SOME FEW/SCT HIGH CLOUDS...WEATHER IMPACTS SHOULD BE
MINIMAL ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH MONDAY EVENING. LIGHT DIURNALLY
DRIVEN WINDS ARE EXPECTED AT ALL SITES.

AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDED TAFS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...
DRIER AND WARMER CONDITIONS TO MAKE THEIR WAY INTO THE REGION
THROUGH THE PERIOD AS HIGH PRESSURE GRADUALLY STRENGTHENS OVER THE
DESERT SOUTHWEST...WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES RISING TO NEAR...OR JUST
ABOVE 100 DEGREES AT MANY LOWER DESERT LOCATIONS FROM FRIDAY ONWARD
INTO NEXT WEEKEND. ALTHOUGH HUMIDITIES ARE EXPECTED TO FALL INTO THE
HIGH SINGLE-DIGIT TO MID-TEEN RANGE EACH AFTERNOON...THE COMBINATION
OF LIGHT WINDS AND FAIR-GOOD OVERNIGHT RECOVERIES WILL KEEP FIRE
DANGER LEVELS AT RELATIVELY LOW LEVELS THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.

&&

.PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AZ...NONE.
CA...NONE.
&&

$$

VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/PHOENIX

DISCUSSION...LEINS/NOLTE/HIRSCH
AVIATION...LEINS
FIRE WEATHER...PERCHA




000
FXUS65 KPSR 250319
AFDPSR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PHOENIX AZ
819 PM MST SUN MAY 24 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A SERIES OF WEAK WEATHER SYSTEMS MOVING THROUGH ARIZONA WILL KEEP
TEMPERATURES BELOW NORMAL THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE MEMORIAL DAY
WEEKEND. ANY ORGANIZED SHOWER ACTIVITY AND MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION
WILL REMAIN NORTH AND EAST OF PHOENIX ON MEMORIAL DAY. A GRADUAL
WARMING AND DRYING TREND WILL BEGIN IN THE EARLY WEEK...WITH
TEMPERATURES RETURNING TO THE UPPER 90S AND EVEN EXCEEDING THE 100
DEGREE MARK BY THE COMING WEEKEND.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
QUIET CONDITIONS PREVAIL ACROSS THE AREA THIS EVENING. THE WEAK
SHORTWAVE TROUGH THAT MOVED THROUGH THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON HAS
SHIFTED EAST...MEANWHILE THE CONVECTION THAT DEVELOPED ALONG THE RIM
HAS STARTED TO DISSIPATE WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING. WHILE SOME
CLOUDS ARE NOTED ON SATELLITE MAINLY ACROSS NEVADA AND NORTHWEST
ARIZONA...SKIES REMAIN MOSTLY CLEAR ACROSS THE LOWER DESERTS AS OF
03Z.

SUBSIDENCE BEHIND THE DEPARTING SHORTWAVE TROUGH SHOULD RESULT IN
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS FOR THE REST OF THE EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT HOURS. INHERITED FORECAST LOOKS VERY REPRESENTATIVE AND I
AM ONLY MAKING MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO TEMPS AND SKY COVER BASED ON
OBSERVATIONAL TRENDS AND INCOMING SHORT-RANGE 00Z MODEL DATA.
MEANWHILE...THE FORECAST FOR MEMORIAL DAY STILL LOOKS ON TRACK WITH
HIGHS IN THE LOWER 90S.

&&

.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
ADDITIONAL UPSTREAM SHORTWAVES/DISTURBANCES WILL BRUSH PAST OR
THROUGH THE REGION FOR THE COMING WEEK...BUT DO LITTLE BY WAY OF
USHERING IN ANY COOLER AIRMASS TEMPERATURES OR REDUCTION IN ML AND UL
THICKNESSES. THE MEAN FLOW WILL BECOME MORE ZONAL AND ULTIMATELY
SOUTHWESTERLY WHILE THE PERSISTENT NEGATIVE HEIGHT ANOMALY OVER THE
WEST MIGRATES EASTWARD AND DISSOLVES. HEIGHTS ACROSS THE REGION WILL
RISE STEADILY THROUGH THE WEEK...HERALDING A RETURN TO WARMER AND
DRIER CONDITIONS. GFS/ECMWF INDICATE THAT A WEAK PACIFIC TROUGH WILL
MOVE THROUGH THE DESERT SOUTHWEST WEDNESDAY...BUT THIS SYSTEM WILL DO
LITTLE TO TEMPER THE BUILDING HEAT. FORECAST IS WEIGHTED HEAVILY
TOWARDS THE OPERATIONAL AND ENSEMBLE-BASED ECMWF...WHICH ARE
EXHIBITING VERY LOW SPREAD AND ARE OFTEN TOP PERFORMERS IN THESE
TYPES OF SCENARIOS. WHAT THIS EQUATES TO IS LOWER DESERT HIGHS RISING
THROUGH THE 90S THROUGH MIDWEEK. HIGH TEMPERATURES MAY EXCEED THE 100
DEGREE MARK AS EARLY AS FRIDAY IN PHOENIX BUT WILL REMAIN WELL BELOW
RECORDS.

&&

.AVIATION...
SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA INCLUDING KPHX...KIWA...AND KSDL...AND
SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA AND SOUTHWEST ARIZONA INCLUDING KIPL AND KBLH...

ASIDE FROM SOME FEW/SCT HIGH CLOUDS...WEATHER IMPACTS SHOULD BE
MINIMAL ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH MONDAY EVENING. LIGHT DIURNALLY
DRIVEN WINDS ARE EXPECTED AT ALL SITES.

AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDED TAFS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...
DRIER AND WARMER CONDITIONS TO MAKE THEIR WAY INTO THE REGION
THROUGH THE PERIOD AS HIGH PRESSURE GRADUALLY STRENGTHENS OVER THE
DESERT SOUTHWEST...WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES RISING TO NEAR...OR JUST
ABOVE 100 DEGREES AT MANY LOWER DESERT LOCATIONS FROM FRIDAY ONWARD
INTO NEXT WEEKEND. ALTHOUGH HUMIDITIES ARE EXPECTED TO FALL INTO THE
HIGH SINGLE-DIGIT TO MID-TEEN RANGE EACH AFTERNOON...THE COMBINATION
OF LIGHT WINDS AND FAIR-GOOD OVERNIGHT RECOVERIES WILL KEEP FIRE
DANGER LEVELS AT RELATIVELY LOW LEVELS THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.

&&

.PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AZ...NONE.
CA...NONE.
&&

$$

VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/PHOENIX

DISCUSSION...LEINS/NOLTE/HIRSCH
AVIATION...LEINS
FIRE WEATHER...PERCHA




000
FXUS65 KTWC 242221
AFDTWC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ
320 PM MST SUN MAY 24 2015

.SYNOPSIS...A FEW SHOWERS MAY OCCUR FROM NEAR TUCSON EASTWARD TO THE
NEW MEXICO BORDER THIS EVENING. A CHANCE OF SHOWERS CONTINUES
MEMORIAL DAY ACROSS THE WHITE MOUNTAINS. DRY CONDITIONS WILL THEN
PREVAIL TUESDAY INTO NEXT WEEKEND. EXPECT NEAR NORMAL DAYTIME
TEMPERATURES TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...THEN WARMER TEMPERATURES NEXT
WEEKEND WITH HIGHS APPROACHING THE CENTURY MARK AT TUCSON SUNDAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...WEAK UPPER LOW CENTERED OVER THE TOHONO O`ODHAM NATION
WEST OF TUCSON MOVING EWD AT THIS TIME. THIS SYSTEM HAS GENERATED A
FAIRLY SUBSTANTIAL CUMULOFORM CLOUD FIELD ACROSS SE ARIZONA. A VERY
DRY SURFACE REGIME WAS ONGOING...WITH DEWPOINTS AT LOWER ELEVATIONS
VALID 21Z RANGING FROM THE 20S-LOWER 30S F. THE AWIPS BLENDED TOTAL
PRECIP WATER IMAGERY PRODUCT EARLY THIS AFTERNOON YIELDED VALUES
AROUND 0.40 ACROSS FAR SERN SECTIONS...AND NEAR 0.75 INCH ACROSS WRN
PIMA COUNTY.

THE WEAK UPPER LOW IS PROGGED TO MOVE EWD INTO SW NEW MEXICO AS AN
OPEN WAVE BY MIDNIGHT TONIGHT. FOR THIS FORECAST PACKAGE...HAVE
MAINTAINED A CHANCE OF SHOWERS THIS EVENING ACROSS THE WHITE
MOUNTAINS...AND A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS MAINLY FROM NEAR TUCSON
EWD/SWD TO THE NEW MEXICO/INTERNATIONAL BORDERS. ANY SHOWERS SHOULD
BE EAST OF THIS FORECAST AREA BY AROUND MIDNIGHT TONIGHT.

RAINFALL AMOUNTS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS WEAK SYSTEM WILL BE QUITE
LIGHT...GENERALLY RANGING FROM A TRACE UPWARD TO AROUND ONE TENTH OF
AN INCH OR SO. HOWEVER...ANY RAINFALL ON MAY 24 IS QUITE UNUSUAL.
PLEASE REFERENCE THE CLIMATE SECTION FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION. A
CHANCE OF SHOWERS CONTINUES ACROSS THE WHITE MOUNTAINS MON AND MON
EVENING WITH DRY CONDITIONS ELSEWHERE. DRY CONDITIONS WILL THEN
OCCUR AREA-WIDE LATE MON NIGHT.

THEREAFTER...FLAT UPPER RIDGE OVER THE AREA TUE WILL MOVE EWD INTO
THE CENTRAL CONUS PLAINS WED IN RESPONSE TO THE NEXT SHORTWAVE
TROUGH DEVELOPING OFF OF THE SRN CALIFORNIA COAST. THIS SYSTEM WILL
BRING SOME MAINLY HIGH CLOUDS TO THE AREA WED...THEN CLEARING SKIES
WED NIGHT AND THUR MORNING AS THE SYSTEM MOVES EWD INTO THE SRN
ROCKIES. CLEAR SKIES OR MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES THUR AFTERNOON INTO NEXT
WEEKEND AS UPPER RIDGE ALONG THE WEST COAST INITIALLY MOVES EWD
ACROSS THE SWRN CONUS.

HIGH TEMPS MON WILL BE ABOUT 5 DEGS F OR SO WARMER VERSUS THIS
AFTERNOON...AND ANOTHER 5 DEGS OR SO OF WARMING WILL CONTINUE TUE.
DAYTIME TEMPS WED-FRI WILL QUITE CLOSE TO NORMAL FOR LATE MAY.
WARMER TEMPS ARE FORECAST TO OCCUR NEXT WEEKEND IN RESPONSE TO
INCREASED HEIGHTS/THICKNESSES OVER THE AREA. THE FIRST 100 DEG TEMP
FOR TUCSON MAY OCCUR NEXT WEEKEND...WITH SUNDAY BEING THE FAVORED
DAY OF OCCURRENCE.

&&

.AVIATION...VALID THRU 26/00Z.
EXPECT ISOLATED -SHRA FROM KTUS VICINITY EASTWARD TO THE NEW MEXICO
BORDER THIS EVENING...WITH ANY -SHRA TO END BY 25/06Z. OTHERWISE...
SCATTERED TO BROKEN CLOUDS AT 8-12K FT AGL THIS EVENING...THEN
CLEARING SKIES FROM WEST-TO-EAST LATE TONIGHT AND CLEAR SKIES TO
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES BY DAYBREAK MONDAY. SCATTERED -SHRA TO OCCUR
ACROSS THE WHITE MOUNTAINS NE OF KSAD MONDAY AFTERNOON. SURFACE WIND
EARLY THIS EVENING AND MONDAY AFTERNOON WILL BE WLY/NWLY AT 10-18
KTS WITH GUSTS OF 20-25 KTS. SURFACE WIND WILL BE LESS THAN 10 KTS
AT OTHER TIMES. AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR TAF AMENDMENTS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...THERE IS A CHANCE OF SHOWERS MAINLY ACROSS THE WHITE
MOUNTAINS THIS EVENING AND AGAIN MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. A FEW
SHOWERS MAY ALSO OCCUR THIS EVENING MAINLY FROM NEAR TUCSON EASTWARD
ACROSS COCHISE COUNTY AND SOUTHERN GRAHAM COUNTY. ANY RAINFALL IS
EXPECTED TO BE QUITE LIGHT...WITH AMOUNTS RANGING FROM A TRACE
UPWARD TO AROUND ONE TENTH OF AN INCH. DRY CONDITIONS WILL THEN
PREVAIL AREA-WIDE TUESDAY INTO NEXT WEEKEND. EXPECT NORMAL DIURNAL
WIND TRENDS...WITH GUSTS DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS DUE TO DAYTIME
HEATING. A WARMING TREND WILL OCCUR THROUGH TUESDAY FOLLOWED BY
CONTINUED NEAR NORMAL DAYTIME TEMPERATURES WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.
EXPECT ABOVE NORMAL HIGH TEMPERATURES NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.CLIMATE...THERE HAVE ONLY BEEN FIVE OCCURRENCES OF MEASURABLE
RAINFALL ON MAY 24 FOR TUCSON SINCE RECORDS STARTED IN 1894. THERE
HAVE BEEN TWO OTHER OCCURRENCES WITH TRACE AMOUNTS OF RAINFALL. THE
LAST RECORDED RAINFALL ON MAY 24 WAS 1994 WITH 0.14 INCH.

&&

.TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...YOUTUBE...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/TUCSON

FRANCIS



000
FXUS65 KTWC 242221
AFDTWC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ
320 PM MST SUN MAY 24 2015

.SYNOPSIS...A FEW SHOWERS MAY OCCUR FROM NEAR TUCSON EASTWARD TO THE
NEW MEXICO BORDER THIS EVENING. A CHANCE OF SHOWERS CONTINUES
MEMORIAL DAY ACROSS THE WHITE MOUNTAINS. DRY CONDITIONS WILL THEN
PREVAIL TUESDAY INTO NEXT WEEKEND. EXPECT NEAR NORMAL DAYTIME
TEMPERATURES TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...THEN WARMER TEMPERATURES NEXT
WEEKEND WITH HIGHS APPROACHING THE CENTURY MARK AT TUCSON SUNDAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...WEAK UPPER LOW CENTERED OVER THE TOHONO O`ODHAM NATION
WEST OF TUCSON MOVING EWD AT THIS TIME. THIS SYSTEM HAS GENERATED A
FAIRLY SUBSTANTIAL CUMULOFORM CLOUD FIELD ACROSS SE ARIZONA. A VERY
DRY SURFACE REGIME WAS ONGOING...WITH DEWPOINTS AT LOWER ELEVATIONS
VALID 21Z RANGING FROM THE 20S-LOWER 30S F. THE AWIPS BLENDED TOTAL
PRECIP WATER IMAGERY PRODUCT EARLY THIS AFTERNOON YIELDED VALUES
AROUND 0.40 ACROSS FAR SERN SECTIONS...AND NEAR 0.75 INCH ACROSS WRN
PIMA COUNTY.

THE WEAK UPPER LOW IS PROGGED TO MOVE EWD INTO SW NEW MEXICO AS AN
OPEN WAVE BY MIDNIGHT TONIGHT. FOR THIS FORECAST PACKAGE...HAVE
MAINTAINED A CHANCE OF SHOWERS THIS EVENING ACROSS THE WHITE
MOUNTAINS...AND A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS MAINLY FROM NEAR TUCSON
EWD/SWD TO THE NEW MEXICO/INTERNATIONAL BORDERS. ANY SHOWERS SHOULD
BE EAST OF THIS FORECAST AREA BY AROUND MIDNIGHT TONIGHT.

RAINFALL AMOUNTS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS WEAK SYSTEM WILL BE QUITE
LIGHT...GENERALLY RANGING FROM A TRACE UPWARD TO AROUND ONE TENTH OF
AN INCH OR SO. HOWEVER...ANY RAINFALL ON MAY 24 IS QUITE UNUSUAL.
PLEASE REFERENCE THE CLIMATE SECTION FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION. A
CHANCE OF SHOWERS CONTINUES ACROSS THE WHITE MOUNTAINS MON AND MON
EVENING WITH DRY CONDITIONS ELSEWHERE. DRY CONDITIONS WILL THEN
OCCUR AREA-WIDE LATE MON NIGHT.

THEREAFTER...FLAT UPPER RIDGE OVER THE AREA TUE WILL MOVE EWD INTO
THE CENTRAL CONUS PLAINS WED IN RESPONSE TO THE NEXT SHORTWAVE
TROUGH DEVELOPING OFF OF THE SRN CALIFORNIA COAST. THIS SYSTEM WILL
BRING SOME MAINLY HIGH CLOUDS TO THE AREA WED...THEN CLEARING SKIES
WED NIGHT AND THUR MORNING AS THE SYSTEM MOVES EWD INTO THE SRN
ROCKIES. CLEAR SKIES OR MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES THUR AFTERNOON INTO NEXT
WEEKEND AS UPPER RIDGE ALONG THE WEST COAST INITIALLY MOVES EWD
ACROSS THE SWRN CONUS.

HIGH TEMPS MON WILL BE ABOUT 5 DEGS F OR SO WARMER VERSUS THIS
AFTERNOON...AND ANOTHER 5 DEGS OR SO OF WARMING WILL CONTINUE TUE.
DAYTIME TEMPS WED-FRI WILL QUITE CLOSE TO NORMAL FOR LATE MAY.
WARMER TEMPS ARE FORECAST TO OCCUR NEXT WEEKEND IN RESPONSE TO
INCREASED HEIGHTS/THICKNESSES OVER THE AREA. THE FIRST 100 DEG TEMP
FOR TUCSON MAY OCCUR NEXT WEEKEND...WITH SUNDAY BEING THE FAVORED
DAY OF OCCURRENCE.

&&

.AVIATION...VALID THRU 26/00Z.
EXPECT ISOLATED -SHRA FROM KTUS VICINITY EASTWARD TO THE NEW MEXICO
BORDER THIS EVENING...WITH ANY -SHRA TO END BY 25/06Z. OTHERWISE...
SCATTERED TO BROKEN CLOUDS AT 8-12K FT AGL THIS EVENING...THEN
CLEARING SKIES FROM WEST-TO-EAST LATE TONIGHT AND CLEAR SKIES TO
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES BY DAYBREAK MONDAY. SCATTERED -SHRA TO OCCUR
ACROSS THE WHITE MOUNTAINS NE OF KSAD MONDAY AFTERNOON. SURFACE WIND
EARLY THIS EVENING AND MONDAY AFTERNOON WILL BE WLY/NWLY AT 10-18
KTS WITH GUSTS OF 20-25 KTS. SURFACE WIND WILL BE LESS THAN 10 KTS
AT OTHER TIMES. AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR TAF AMENDMENTS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...THERE IS A CHANCE OF SHOWERS MAINLY ACROSS THE WHITE
MOUNTAINS THIS EVENING AND AGAIN MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. A FEW
SHOWERS MAY ALSO OCCUR THIS EVENING MAINLY FROM NEAR TUCSON EASTWARD
ACROSS COCHISE COUNTY AND SOUTHERN GRAHAM COUNTY. ANY RAINFALL IS
EXPECTED TO BE QUITE LIGHT...WITH AMOUNTS RANGING FROM A TRACE
UPWARD TO AROUND ONE TENTH OF AN INCH. DRY CONDITIONS WILL THEN
PREVAIL AREA-WIDE TUESDAY INTO NEXT WEEKEND. EXPECT NORMAL DIURNAL
WIND TRENDS...WITH GUSTS DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS DUE TO DAYTIME
HEATING. A WARMING TREND WILL OCCUR THROUGH TUESDAY FOLLOWED BY
CONTINUED NEAR NORMAL DAYTIME TEMPERATURES WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.
EXPECT ABOVE NORMAL HIGH TEMPERATURES NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.CLIMATE...THERE HAVE ONLY BEEN FIVE OCCURRENCES OF MEASURABLE
RAINFALL ON MAY 24 FOR TUCSON SINCE RECORDS STARTED IN 1894. THERE
HAVE BEEN TWO OTHER OCCURRENCES WITH TRACE AMOUNTS OF RAINFALL. THE
LAST RECORDED RAINFALL ON MAY 24 WAS 1994 WITH 0.14 INCH.

&&

.TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...YOUTUBE...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/TUCSON

FRANCIS



000
FXUS65 KTWC 242221
AFDTWC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ
320 PM MST SUN MAY 24 2015

.SYNOPSIS...A FEW SHOWERS MAY OCCUR FROM NEAR TUCSON EASTWARD TO THE
NEW MEXICO BORDER THIS EVENING. A CHANCE OF SHOWERS CONTINUES
MEMORIAL DAY ACROSS THE WHITE MOUNTAINS. DRY CONDITIONS WILL THEN
PREVAIL TUESDAY INTO NEXT WEEKEND. EXPECT NEAR NORMAL DAYTIME
TEMPERATURES TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...THEN WARMER TEMPERATURES NEXT
WEEKEND WITH HIGHS APPROACHING THE CENTURY MARK AT TUCSON SUNDAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...WEAK UPPER LOW CENTERED OVER THE TOHONO O`ODHAM NATION
WEST OF TUCSON MOVING EWD AT THIS TIME. THIS SYSTEM HAS GENERATED A
FAIRLY SUBSTANTIAL CUMULOFORM CLOUD FIELD ACROSS SE ARIZONA. A VERY
DRY SURFACE REGIME WAS ONGOING...WITH DEWPOINTS AT LOWER ELEVATIONS
VALID 21Z RANGING FROM THE 20S-LOWER 30S F. THE AWIPS BLENDED TOTAL
PRECIP WATER IMAGERY PRODUCT EARLY THIS AFTERNOON YIELDED VALUES
AROUND 0.40 ACROSS FAR SERN SECTIONS...AND NEAR 0.75 INCH ACROSS WRN
PIMA COUNTY.

THE WEAK UPPER LOW IS PROGGED TO MOVE EWD INTO SW NEW MEXICO AS AN
OPEN WAVE BY MIDNIGHT TONIGHT. FOR THIS FORECAST PACKAGE...HAVE
MAINTAINED A CHANCE OF SHOWERS THIS EVENING ACROSS THE WHITE
MOUNTAINS...AND A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS MAINLY FROM NEAR TUCSON
EWD/SWD TO THE NEW MEXICO/INTERNATIONAL BORDERS. ANY SHOWERS SHOULD
BE EAST OF THIS FORECAST AREA BY AROUND MIDNIGHT TONIGHT.

RAINFALL AMOUNTS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS WEAK SYSTEM WILL BE QUITE
LIGHT...GENERALLY RANGING FROM A TRACE UPWARD TO AROUND ONE TENTH OF
AN INCH OR SO. HOWEVER...ANY RAINFALL ON MAY 24 IS QUITE UNUSUAL.
PLEASE REFERENCE THE CLIMATE SECTION FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION. A
CHANCE OF SHOWERS CONTINUES ACROSS THE WHITE MOUNTAINS MON AND MON
EVENING WITH DRY CONDITIONS ELSEWHERE. DRY CONDITIONS WILL THEN
OCCUR AREA-WIDE LATE MON NIGHT.

THEREAFTER...FLAT UPPER RIDGE OVER THE AREA TUE WILL MOVE EWD INTO
THE CENTRAL CONUS PLAINS WED IN RESPONSE TO THE NEXT SHORTWAVE
TROUGH DEVELOPING OFF OF THE SRN CALIFORNIA COAST. THIS SYSTEM WILL
BRING SOME MAINLY HIGH CLOUDS TO THE AREA WED...THEN CLEARING SKIES
WED NIGHT AND THUR MORNING AS THE SYSTEM MOVES EWD INTO THE SRN
ROCKIES. CLEAR SKIES OR MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES THUR AFTERNOON INTO NEXT
WEEKEND AS UPPER RIDGE ALONG THE WEST COAST INITIALLY MOVES EWD
ACROSS THE SWRN CONUS.

HIGH TEMPS MON WILL BE ABOUT 5 DEGS F OR SO WARMER VERSUS THIS
AFTERNOON...AND ANOTHER 5 DEGS OR SO OF WARMING WILL CONTINUE TUE.
DAYTIME TEMPS WED-FRI WILL QUITE CLOSE TO NORMAL FOR LATE MAY.
WARMER TEMPS ARE FORECAST TO OCCUR NEXT WEEKEND IN RESPONSE TO
INCREASED HEIGHTS/THICKNESSES OVER THE AREA. THE FIRST 100 DEG TEMP
FOR TUCSON MAY OCCUR NEXT WEEKEND...WITH SUNDAY BEING THE FAVORED
DAY OF OCCURRENCE.

&&

.AVIATION...VALID THRU 26/00Z.
EXPECT ISOLATED -SHRA FROM KTUS VICINITY EASTWARD TO THE NEW MEXICO
BORDER THIS EVENING...WITH ANY -SHRA TO END BY 25/06Z. OTHERWISE...
SCATTERED TO BROKEN CLOUDS AT 8-12K FT AGL THIS EVENING...THEN
CLEARING SKIES FROM WEST-TO-EAST LATE TONIGHT AND CLEAR SKIES TO
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES BY DAYBREAK MONDAY. SCATTERED -SHRA TO OCCUR
ACROSS THE WHITE MOUNTAINS NE OF KSAD MONDAY AFTERNOON. SURFACE WIND
EARLY THIS EVENING AND MONDAY AFTERNOON WILL BE WLY/NWLY AT 10-18
KTS WITH GUSTS OF 20-25 KTS. SURFACE WIND WILL BE LESS THAN 10 KTS
AT OTHER TIMES. AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR TAF AMENDMENTS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...THERE IS A CHANCE OF SHOWERS MAINLY ACROSS THE WHITE
MOUNTAINS THIS EVENING AND AGAIN MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. A FEW
SHOWERS MAY ALSO OCCUR THIS EVENING MAINLY FROM NEAR TUCSON EASTWARD
ACROSS COCHISE COUNTY AND SOUTHERN GRAHAM COUNTY. ANY RAINFALL IS
EXPECTED TO BE QUITE LIGHT...WITH AMOUNTS RANGING FROM A TRACE
UPWARD TO AROUND ONE TENTH OF AN INCH. DRY CONDITIONS WILL THEN
PREVAIL AREA-WIDE TUESDAY INTO NEXT WEEKEND. EXPECT NORMAL DIURNAL
WIND TRENDS...WITH GUSTS DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS DUE TO DAYTIME
HEATING. A WARMING TREND WILL OCCUR THROUGH TUESDAY FOLLOWED BY
CONTINUED NEAR NORMAL DAYTIME TEMPERATURES WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.
EXPECT ABOVE NORMAL HIGH TEMPERATURES NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.CLIMATE...THERE HAVE ONLY BEEN FIVE OCCURRENCES OF MEASURABLE
RAINFALL ON MAY 24 FOR TUCSON SINCE RECORDS STARTED IN 1894. THERE
HAVE BEEN TWO OTHER OCCURRENCES WITH TRACE AMOUNTS OF RAINFALL. THE
LAST RECORDED RAINFALL ON MAY 24 WAS 1994 WITH 0.14 INCH.

&&

.TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...YOUTUBE...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/TUCSON

FRANCIS



000
FXUS65 KTWC 242221
AFDTWC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ
320 PM MST SUN MAY 24 2015

.SYNOPSIS...A FEW SHOWERS MAY OCCUR FROM NEAR TUCSON EASTWARD TO THE
NEW MEXICO BORDER THIS EVENING. A CHANCE OF SHOWERS CONTINUES
MEMORIAL DAY ACROSS THE WHITE MOUNTAINS. DRY CONDITIONS WILL THEN
PREVAIL TUESDAY INTO NEXT WEEKEND. EXPECT NEAR NORMAL DAYTIME
TEMPERATURES TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...THEN WARMER TEMPERATURES NEXT
WEEKEND WITH HIGHS APPROACHING THE CENTURY MARK AT TUCSON SUNDAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...WEAK UPPER LOW CENTERED OVER THE TOHONO O`ODHAM NATION
WEST OF TUCSON MOVING EWD AT THIS TIME. THIS SYSTEM HAS GENERATED A
FAIRLY SUBSTANTIAL CUMULOFORM CLOUD FIELD ACROSS SE ARIZONA. A VERY
DRY SURFACE REGIME WAS ONGOING...WITH DEWPOINTS AT LOWER ELEVATIONS
VALID 21Z RANGING FROM THE 20S-LOWER 30S F. THE AWIPS BLENDED TOTAL
PRECIP WATER IMAGERY PRODUCT EARLY THIS AFTERNOON YIELDED VALUES
AROUND 0.40 ACROSS FAR SERN SECTIONS...AND NEAR 0.75 INCH ACROSS WRN
PIMA COUNTY.

THE WEAK UPPER LOW IS PROGGED TO MOVE EWD INTO SW NEW MEXICO AS AN
OPEN WAVE BY MIDNIGHT TONIGHT. FOR THIS FORECAST PACKAGE...HAVE
MAINTAINED A CHANCE OF SHOWERS THIS EVENING ACROSS THE WHITE
MOUNTAINS...AND A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS MAINLY FROM NEAR TUCSON
EWD/SWD TO THE NEW MEXICO/INTERNATIONAL BORDERS. ANY SHOWERS SHOULD
BE EAST OF THIS FORECAST AREA BY AROUND MIDNIGHT TONIGHT.

RAINFALL AMOUNTS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS WEAK SYSTEM WILL BE QUITE
LIGHT...GENERALLY RANGING FROM A TRACE UPWARD TO AROUND ONE TENTH OF
AN INCH OR SO. HOWEVER...ANY RAINFALL ON MAY 24 IS QUITE UNUSUAL.
PLEASE REFERENCE THE CLIMATE SECTION FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION. A
CHANCE OF SHOWERS CONTINUES ACROSS THE WHITE MOUNTAINS MON AND MON
EVENING WITH DRY CONDITIONS ELSEWHERE. DRY CONDITIONS WILL THEN
OCCUR AREA-WIDE LATE MON NIGHT.

THEREAFTER...FLAT UPPER RIDGE OVER THE AREA TUE WILL MOVE EWD INTO
THE CENTRAL CONUS PLAINS WED IN RESPONSE TO THE NEXT SHORTWAVE
TROUGH DEVELOPING OFF OF THE SRN CALIFORNIA COAST. THIS SYSTEM WILL
BRING SOME MAINLY HIGH CLOUDS TO THE AREA WED...THEN CLEARING SKIES
WED NIGHT AND THUR MORNING AS THE SYSTEM MOVES EWD INTO THE SRN
ROCKIES. CLEAR SKIES OR MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES THUR AFTERNOON INTO NEXT
WEEKEND AS UPPER RIDGE ALONG THE WEST COAST INITIALLY MOVES EWD
ACROSS THE SWRN CONUS.

HIGH TEMPS MON WILL BE ABOUT 5 DEGS F OR SO WARMER VERSUS THIS
AFTERNOON...AND ANOTHER 5 DEGS OR SO OF WARMING WILL CONTINUE TUE.
DAYTIME TEMPS WED-FRI WILL QUITE CLOSE TO NORMAL FOR LATE MAY.
WARMER TEMPS ARE FORECAST TO OCCUR NEXT WEEKEND IN RESPONSE TO
INCREASED HEIGHTS/THICKNESSES OVER THE AREA. THE FIRST 100 DEG TEMP
FOR TUCSON MAY OCCUR NEXT WEEKEND...WITH SUNDAY BEING THE FAVORED
DAY OF OCCURRENCE.

&&

.AVIATION...VALID THRU 26/00Z.
EXPECT ISOLATED -SHRA FROM KTUS VICINITY EASTWARD TO THE NEW MEXICO
BORDER THIS EVENING...WITH ANY -SHRA TO END BY 25/06Z. OTHERWISE...
SCATTERED TO BROKEN CLOUDS AT 8-12K FT AGL THIS EVENING...THEN
CLEARING SKIES FROM WEST-TO-EAST LATE TONIGHT AND CLEAR SKIES TO
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES BY DAYBREAK MONDAY. SCATTERED -SHRA TO OCCUR
ACROSS THE WHITE MOUNTAINS NE OF KSAD MONDAY AFTERNOON. SURFACE WIND
EARLY THIS EVENING AND MONDAY AFTERNOON WILL BE WLY/NWLY AT 10-18
KTS WITH GUSTS OF 20-25 KTS. SURFACE WIND WILL BE LESS THAN 10 KTS
AT OTHER TIMES. AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR TAF AMENDMENTS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...THERE IS A CHANCE OF SHOWERS MAINLY ACROSS THE WHITE
MOUNTAINS THIS EVENING AND AGAIN MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. A FEW
SHOWERS MAY ALSO OCCUR THIS EVENING MAINLY FROM NEAR TUCSON EASTWARD
ACROSS COCHISE COUNTY AND SOUTHERN GRAHAM COUNTY. ANY RAINFALL IS
EXPECTED TO BE QUITE LIGHT...WITH AMOUNTS RANGING FROM A TRACE
UPWARD TO AROUND ONE TENTH OF AN INCH. DRY CONDITIONS WILL THEN
PREVAIL AREA-WIDE TUESDAY INTO NEXT WEEKEND. EXPECT NORMAL DIURNAL
WIND TRENDS...WITH GUSTS DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS DUE TO DAYTIME
HEATING. A WARMING TREND WILL OCCUR THROUGH TUESDAY FOLLOWED BY
CONTINUED NEAR NORMAL DAYTIME TEMPERATURES WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.
EXPECT ABOVE NORMAL HIGH TEMPERATURES NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.CLIMATE...THERE HAVE ONLY BEEN FIVE OCCURRENCES OF MEASURABLE
RAINFALL ON MAY 24 FOR TUCSON SINCE RECORDS STARTED IN 1894. THERE
HAVE BEEN TWO OTHER OCCURRENCES WITH TRACE AMOUNTS OF RAINFALL. THE
LAST RECORDED RAINFALL ON MAY 24 WAS 1994 WITH 0.14 INCH.

&&

.TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...YOUTUBE...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/TUCSON

FRANCIS



000
FXUS65 KTWC 242221
AFDTWC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ
320 PM MST SUN MAY 24 2015

.SYNOPSIS...A FEW SHOWERS MAY OCCUR FROM NEAR TUCSON EASTWARD TO THE
NEW MEXICO BORDER THIS EVENING. A CHANCE OF SHOWERS CONTINUES
MEMORIAL DAY ACROSS THE WHITE MOUNTAINS. DRY CONDITIONS WILL THEN
PREVAIL TUESDAY INTO NEXT WEEKEND. EXPECT NEAR NORMAL DAYTIME
TEMPERATURES TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...THEN WARMER TEMPERATURES NEXT
WEEKEND WITH HIGHS APPROACHING THE CENTURY MARK AT TUCSON SUNDAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...WEAK UPPER LOW CENTERED OVER THE TOHONO O`ODHAM NATION
WEST OF TUCSON MOVING EWD AT THIS TIME. THIS SYSTEM HAS GENERATED A
FAIRLY SUBSTANTIAL CUMULOFORM CLOUD FIELD ACROSS SE ARIZONA. A VERY
DRY SURFACE REGIME WAS ONGOING...WITH DEWPOINTS AT LOWER ELEVATIONS
VALID 21Z RANGING FROM THE 20S-LOWER 30S F. THE AWIPS BLENDED TOTAL
PRECIP WATER IMAGERY PRODUCT EARLY THIS AFTERNOON YIELDED VALUES
AROUND 0.40 ACROSS FAR SERN SECTIONS...AND NEAR 0.75 INCH ACROSS WRN
PIMA COUNTY.

THE WEAK UPPER LOW IS PROGGED TO MOVE EWD INTO SW NEW MEXICO AS AN
OPEN WAVE BY MIDNIGHT TONIGHT. FOR THIS FORECAST PACKAGE...HAVE
MAINTAINED A CHANCE OF SHOWERS THIS EVENING ACROSS THE WHITE
MOUNTAINS...AND A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS MAINLY FROM NEAR TUCSON
EWD/SWD TO THE NEW MEXICO/INTERNATIONAL BORDERS. ANY SHOWERS SHOULD
BE EAST OF THIS FORECAST AREA BY AROUND MIDNIGHT TONIGHT.

RAINFALL AMOUNTS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS WEAK SYSTEM WILL BE QUITE
LIGHT...GENERALLY RANGING FROM A TRACE UPWARD TO AROUND ONE TENTH OF
AN INCH OR SO. HOWEVER...ANY RAINFALL ON MAY 24 IS QUITE UNUSUAL.
PLEASE REFERENCE THE CLIMATE SECTION FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION. A
CHANCE OF SHOWERS CONTINUES ACROSS THE WHITE MOUNTAINS MON AND MON
EVENING WITH DRY CONDITIONS ELSEWHERE. DRY CONDITIONS WILL THEN
OCCUR AREA-WIDE LATE MON NIGHT.

THEREAFTER...FLAT UPPER RIDGE OVER THE AREA TUE WILL MOVE EWD INTO
THE CENTRAL CONUS PLAINS WED IN RESPONSE TO THE NEXT SHORTWAVE
TROUGH DEVELOPING OFF OF THE SRN CALIFORNIA COAST. THIS SYSTEM WILL
BRING SOME MAINLY HIGH CLOUDS TO THE AREA WED...THEN CLEARING SKIES
WED NIGHT AND THUR MORNING AS THE SYSTEM MOVES EWD INTO THE SRN
ROCKIES. CLEAR SKIES OR MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES THUR AFTERNOON INTO NEXT
WEEKEND AS UPPER RIDGE ALONG THE WEST COAST INITIALLY MOVES EWD
ACROSS THE SWRN CONUS.

HIGH TEMPS MON WILL BE ABOUT 5 DEGS F OR SO WARMER VERSUS THIS
AFTERNOON...AND ANOTHER 5 DEGS OR SO OF WARMING WILL CONTINUE TUE.
DAYTIME TEMPS WED-FRI WILL QUITE CLOSE TO NORMAL FOR LATE MAY.
WARMER TEMPS ARE FORECAST TO OCCUR NEXT WEEKEND IN RESPONSE TO
INCREASED HEIGHTS/THICKNESSES OVER THE AREA. THE FIRST 100 DEG TEMP
FOR TUCSON MAY OCCUR NEXT WEEKEND...WITH SUNDAY BEING THE FAVORED
DAY OF OCCURRENCE.

&&

.AVIATION...VALID THRU 26/00Z.
EXPECT ISOLATED -SHRA FROM KTUS VICINITY EASTWARD TO THE NEW MEXICO
BORDER THIS EVENING...WITH ANY -SHRA TO END BY 25/06Z. OTHERWISE...
SCATTERED TO BROKEN CLOUDS AT 8-12K FT AGL THIS EVENING...THEN
CLEARING SKIES FROM WEST-TO-EAST LATE TONIGHT AND CLEAR SKIES TO
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES BY DAYBREAK MONDAY. SCATTERED -SHRA TO OCCUR
ACROSS THE WHITE MOUNTAINS NE OF KSAD MONDAY AFTERNOON. SURFACE WIND
EARLY THIS EVENING AND MONDAY AFTERNOON WILL BE WLY/NWLY AT 10-18
KTS WITH GUSTS OF 20-25 KTS. SURFACE WIND WILL BE LESS THAN 10 KTS
AT OTHER TIMES. AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR TAF AMENDMENTS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...THERE IS A CHANCE OF SHOWERS MAINLY ACROSS THE WHITE
MOUNTAINS THIS EVENING AND AGAIN MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. A FEW
SHOWERS MAY ALSO OCCUR THIS EVENING MAINLY FROM NEAR TUCSON EASTWARD
ACROSS COCHISE COUNTY AND SOUTHERN GRAHAM COUNTY. ANY RAINFALL IS
EXPECTED TO BE QUITE LIGHT...WITH AMOUNTS RANGING FROM A TRACE
UPWARD TO AROUND ONE TENTH OF AN INCH. DRY CONDITIONS WILL THEN
PREVAIL AREA-WIDE TUESDAY INTO NEXT WEEKEND. EXPECT NORMAL DIURNAL
WIND TRENDS...WITH GUSTS DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS DUE TO DAYTIME
HEATING. A WARMING TREND WILL OCCUR THROUGH TUESDAY FOLLOWED BY
CONTINUED NEAR NORMAL DAYTIME TEMPERATURES WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.
EXPECT ABOVE NORMAL HIGH TEMPERATURES NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.CLIMATE...THERE HAVE ONLY BEEN FIVE OCCURRENCES OF MEASURABLE
RAINFALL ON MAY 24 FOR TUCSON SINCE RECORDS STARTED IN 1894. THERE
HAVE BEEN TWO OTHER OCCURRENCES WITH TRACE AMOUNTS OF RAINFALL. THE
LAST RECORDED RAINFALL ON MAY 24 WAS 1994 WITH 0.14 INCH.

&&

.TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...YOUTUBE...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/TUCSON

FRANCIS




000
FXUS65 KFGZ 242215
AFDFGZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ
315 PM MST SUN MAY 24 2015

.SYNOPSIS... COOL AND UNSETTLED WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN
ACROSS THE NORTHLAND TODAY AND MEMORIAL DAY. SHOWERS WILL BE MOST
NUMEROUS FROM FLAGSTAFF NORTH TO THE UTAH BORDER. WARMER AND DRIER
WEATHER IS EXPECTED FROM TUESDAY ONWARD.

&&

.DISCUSSION...SCATTERED SHOWERS AND A FEW EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS
HAVE EXPANDED IN COVERAGE ACROSS NORTHERN ARIZONA AS WE REMAIN
BETWEEN DEPARTING LOW PRESSURE OVER COLORADO AND A SHORTWAVE
PASSING THROUGH SOUTHERN ARIZONA. SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE
THROUGH EARLY EVENING BEFORE DECREASING IN COVERAGE. AN UNSTABLE
NORTHWEST FLOW WILL FILL IN TONIGHT BEHIND THE SOUTHERN ARIZONA
SHORTWAVE...KEEPING A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS IN THE FORECAST
OVERNIGHT. ON MEMORIAL DAY...A MINOR DISTURBANCE EMBEDDED IN THE
NORTHWEST FLOW MOVES THROUGH NORTHERN ARIZONA EXTENDING THE CHANCE
FOR SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING HOURS. CHANCES ON MONDAY WILL FAVOR AREAS FROM THE
MOGOLLON RIM NORTH.

COOLER THAN AVERAGE TEMPERATURES CONTINUE THROUGH THE HOLIDAY
WEEKEND...THOUGH MONDAY`S HIGHS WILL WARM 5 TO 7 DEGREES OVER
TODAY`S HIGHS. A MARKEDLY DRIER AND WARMER PATTERN WILL DEVELOP
TUESDAY THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK AND INTO NEXT WEEKEND AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS BACK INTO THE REGION. TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO
RETURN CLOSE TO NORMAL BY MIDWEEK...AND WARM TO ABOVE NORMAL BY
LATE IN THE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 00Z PACKAGE...SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE OVER NORTHERN ARIZONA THROUGH AROUND
03Z THIS EVENING...THEN DECREASE TO ISOLD ACTIVITY THROUGH THE
NIGHT. ISOLD TO WDLY SCT -SHRA/TSRA WILL DEVELOP AGAIN LATE MORNING
ON MONDAY. VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL...THOUGH MVFR AND GUSTY WINDS
WILL ACCOMPANY THE HEAVIER SHOWERS. AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED
FOR TAF AMENDMENTS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL
CONTINUE THIS EVENING AS TWO AREAS OF LOW PRESSURE INTERACT OVER THE
STATE. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP
AGAIN ON MEMORIAL DAY. ON TUESDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL START TO
BUILD OVER ARIZONA WITH WARMER AND DRIER CONDITIONS.

.WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD
OVER ARIZONA WITH DRIER AND MUCH WARMER CONDITIONS. LIGHTER WINDS
THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC...MCS
AVIATION...MAS
FIRE WEATHER...MAS



000
FXUS65 KFGZ 242215
AFDFGZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ
315 PM MST SUN MAY 24 2015

.SYNOPSIS... COOL AND UNSETTLED WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN
ACROSS THE NORTHLAND TODAY AND MEMORIAL DAY. SHOWERS WILL BE MOST
NUMEROUS FROM FLAGSTAFF NORTH TO THE UTAH BORDER. WARMER AND DRIER
WEATHER IS EXPECTED FROM TUESDAY ONWARD.

&&

.DISCUSSION...SCATTERED SHOWERS AND A FEW EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS
HAVE EXPANDED IN COVERAGE ACROSS NORTHERN ARIZONA AS WE REMAIN
BETWEEN DEPARTING LOW PRESSURE OVER COLORADO AND A SHORTWAVE
PASSING THROUGH SOUTHERN ARIZONA. SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE
THROUGH EARLY EVENING BEFORE DECREASING IN COVERAGE. AN UNSTABLE
NORTHWEST FLOW WILL FILL IN TONIGHT BEHIND THE SOUTHERN ARIZONA
SHORTWAVE...KEEPING A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS IN THE FORECAST
OVERNIGHT. ON MEMORIAL DAY...A MINOR DISTURBANCE EMBEDDED IN THE
NORTHWEST FLOW MOVES THROUGH NORTHERN ARIZONA EXTENDING THE CHANCE
FOR SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING HOURS. CHANCES ON MONDAY WILL FAVOR AREAS FROM THE
MOGOLLON RIM NORTH.

COOLER THAN AVERAGE TEMPERATURES CONTINUE THROUGH THE HOLIDAY
WEEKEND...THOUGH MONDAY`S HIGHS WILL WARM 5 TO 7 DEGREES OVER
TODAY`S HIGHS. A MARKEDLY DRIER AND WARMER PATTERN WILL DEVELOP
TUESDAY THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK AND INTO NEXT WEEKEND AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS BACK INTO THE REGION. TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO
RETURN CLOSE TO NORMAL BY MIDWEEK...AND WARM TO ABOVE NORMAL BY
LATE IN THE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 00Z PACKAGE...SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE OVER NORTHERN ARIZONA THROUGH AROUND
03Z THIS EVENING...THEN DECREASE TO ISOLD ACTIVITY THROUGH THE
NIGHT. ISOLD TO WDLY SCT -SHRA/TSRA WILL DEVELOP AGAIN LATE MORNING
ON MONDAY. VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL...THOUGH MVFR AND GUSTY WINDS
WILL ACCOMPANY THE HEAVIER SHOWERS. AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED
FOR TAF AMENDMENTS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL
CONTINUE THIS EVENING AS TWO AREAS OF LOW PRESSURE INTERACT OVER THE
STATE. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP
AGAIN ON MEMORIAL DAY. ON TUESDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL START TO
BUILD OVER ARIZONA WITH WARMER AND DRIER CONDITIONS.

.WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD
OVER ARIZONA WITH DRIER AND MUCH WARMER CONDITIONS. LIGHTER WINDS
THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC...MCS
AVIATION...MAS
FIRE WEATHER...MAS



000
FXUS65 KFGZ 242215
AFDFGZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ
315 PM MST SUN MAY 24 2015

.SYNOPSIS... COOL AND UNSETTLED WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN
ACROSS THE NORTHLAND TODAY AND MEMORIAL DAY. SHOWERS WILL BE MOST
NUMEROUS FROM FLAGSTAFF NORTH TO THE UTAH BORDER. WARMER AND DRIER
WEATHER IS EXPECTED FROM TUESDAY ONWARD.

&&

.DISCUSSION...SCATTERED SHOWERS AND A FEW EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS
HAVE EXPANDED IN COVERAGE ACROSS NORTHERN ARIZONA AS WE REMAIN
BETWEEN DEPARTING LOW PRESSURE OVER COLORADO AND A SHORTWAVE
PASSING THROUGH SOUTHERN ARIZONA. SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE
THROUGH EARLY EVENING BEFORE DECREASING IN COVERAGE. AN UNSTABLE
NORTHWEST FLOW WILL FILL IN TONIGHT BEHIND THE SOUTHERN ARIZONA
SHORTWAVE...KEEPING A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS IN THE FORECAST
OVERNIGHT. ON MEMORIAL DAY...A MINOR DISTURBANCE EMBEDDED IN THE
NORTHWEST FLOW MOVES THROUGH NORTHERN ARIZONA EXTENDING THE CHANCE
FOR SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING HOURS. CHANCES ON MONDAY WILL FAVOR AREAS FROM THE
MOGOLLON RIM NORTH.

COOLER THAN AVERAGE TEMPERATURES CONTINUE THROUGH THE HOLIDAY
WEEKEND...THOUGH MONDAY`S HIGHS WILL WARM 5 TO 7 DEGREES OVER
TODAY`S HIGHS. A MARKEDLY DRIER AND WARMER PATTERN WILL DEVELOP
TUESDAY THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK AND INTO NEXT WEEKEND AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS BACK INTO THE REGION. TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO
RETURN CLOSE TO NORMAL BY MIDWEEK...AND WARM TO ABOVE NORMAL BY
LATE IN THE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 00Z PACKAGE...SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE OVER NORTHERN ARIZONA THROUGH AROUND
03Z THIS EVENING...THEN DECREASE TO ISOLD ACTIVITY THROUGH THE
NIGHT. ISOLD TO WDLY SCT -SHRA/TSRA WILL DEVELOP AGAIN LATE MORNING
ON MONDAY. VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL...THOUGH MVFR AND GUSTY WINDS
WILL ACCOMPANY THE HEAVIER SHOWERS. AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED
FOR TAF AMENDMENTS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL
CONTINUE THIS EVENING AS TWO AREAS OF LOW PRESSURE INTERACT OVER THE
STATE. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP
AGAIN ON MEMORIAL DAY. ON TUESDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL START TO
BUILD OVER ARIZONA WITH WARMER AND DRIER CONDITIONS.

.WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD
OVER ARIZONA WITH DRIER AND MUCH WARMER CONDITIONS. LIGHTER WINDS
THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC...MCS
AVIATION...MAS
FIRE WEATHER...MAS



000
FXUS65 KFGZ 242215
AFDFGZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ
315 PM MST SUN MAY 24 2015

.SYNOPSIS... COOL AND UNSETTLED WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN
ACROSS THE NORTHLAND TODAY AND MEMORIAL DAY. SHOWERS WILL BE MOST
NUMEROUS FROM FLAGSTAFF NORTH TO THE UTAH BORDER. WARMER AND DRIER
WEATHER IS EXPECTED FROM TUESDAY ONWARD.

&&

.DISCUSSION...SCATTERED SHOWERS AND A FEW EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS
HAVE EXPANDED IN COVERAGE ACROSS NORTHERN ARIZONA AS WE REMAIN
BETWEEN DEPARTING LOW PRESSURE OVER COLORADO AND A SHORTWAVE
PASSING THROUGH SOUTHERN ARIZONA. SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE
THROUGH EARLY EVENING BEFORE DECREASING IN COVERAGE. AN UNSTABLE
NORTHWEST FLOW WILL FILL IN TONIGHT BEHIND THE SOUTHERN ARIZONA
SHORTWAVE...KEEPING A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS IN THE FORECAST
OVERNIGHT. ON MEMORIAL DAY...A MINOR DISTURBANCE EMBEDDED IN THE
NORTHWEST FLOW MOVES THROUGH NORTHERN ARIZONA EXTENDING THE CHANCE
FOR SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING HOURS. CHANCES ON MONDAY WILL FAVOR AREAS FROM THE
MOGOLLON RIM NORTH.

COOLER THAN AVERAGE TEMPERATURES CONTINUE THROUGH THE HOLIDAY
WEEKEND...THOUGH MONDAY`S HIGHS WILL WARM 5 TO 7 DEGREES OVER
TODAY`S HIGHS. A MARKEDLY DRIER AND WARMER PATTERN WILL DEVELOP
TUESDAY THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK AND INTO NEXT WEEKEND AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS BACK INTO THE REGION. TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO
RETURN CLOSE TO NORMAL BY MIDWEEK...AND WARM TO ABOVE NORMAL BY
LATE IN THE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 00Z PACKAGE...SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE OVER NORTHERN ARIZONA THROUGH AROUND
03Z THIS EVENING...THEN DECREASE TO ISOLD ACTIVITY THROUGH THE
NIGHT. ISOLD TO WDLY SCT -SHRA/TSRA WILL DEVELOP AGAIN LATE MORNING
ON MONDAY. VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL...THOUGH MVFR AND GUSTY WINDS
WILL ACCOMPANY THE HEAVIER SHOWERS. AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED
FOR TAF AMENDMENTS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL
CONTINUE THIS EVENING AS TWO AREAS OF LOW PRESSURE INTERACT OVER THE
STATE. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP
AGAIN ON MEMORIAL DAY. ON TUESDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL START TO
BUILD OVER ARIZONA WITH WARMER AND DRIER CONDITIONS.

.WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD
OVER ARIZONA WITH DRIER AND MUCH WARMER CONDITIONS. LIGHTER WINDS
THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC...MCS
AVIATION...MAS
FIRE WEATHER...MAS



000
FXUS65 KPSR 242039
AFDPSR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PHOENIX AZ
138 PM MST SUN MAY 24 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A SERIES OF WEAK WEATHER SYSTEMS MOVING THROUGH ARIZONA WILL KEEP
TEMPERATURES BELOW NORMAL THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE MEMORIAL DAY
WEEKEND. ANY ORGANIZED SHOWER ACTIVITY AND MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION
WILL REMAIN NORTH AND EAST OF PHOENIX TODAY AND MEMORIAL DAY. A
GRADUAL WARMING AND DRYING TREND WILL BEGIN IN THE EARLY WEEK...WITH
TEMPERATURES RETURNING TO THE UPPER 90S AND EVEN EXCEEDING THE 100
DEGREE MARK BY THE COMING WEEKEND.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

LATEST UPPER VORT MAX/COMPACT SHORTWAVE OFF THE LARGER PARENT LOW
OVER NORTHWEST CO AND SOUTHERN WY CONTINUES TO CARVE ITS WAY ACROSS
OUR FORECAST AREA THIS AFTERNOON. MAIN CIRC CENTER WAS MOVING ALONG
THE INTL BORDER HEADING INTO SOUTHEAST AZ THIS AFTERNOON AND
GENERATING A WELL-DEFINED MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUD SHIELD OVER SOUTH-
CENTRAL AZ. LATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY ALREADY SHOWS THE THICKER
CLOUDS HEADING EAST INTO SOUTHERN GILA COUNTY AND PATCHES OF BLUE
SKY ARE NOW VISIBLE ON PHOENIX-AREA WEBCAMS. DRIER AND SLIGHTLY
SUBSIDENT FLOW ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE VORT MAX HAS KEPT SKIES MOSTLY
CLEAR OVER THE LOWER CO RIVER VALLEY AND SOUTHEAST CA...SAVE FOR A
LIMITED FEW TERRAIN DRIVEN CU. AREA TEMPERATURES ARE RUNNING A FEW
DEGREES WARMER THAN THIS TIME YESTERDAY EVEN IN SPOTS UNDERNEATH THE
THICK...BUT PASSING...CLOUD COVER. SUBTLE ANTICYCLONIC AND STABLE
FLOW WILL FOLLOW THE VORT MAX AS IT CLEARS INTO SOUTHEAST AZ
TONIGHT...LEAVING SKIES MOSTLY CLEAR AND OVERNIGHT TEMPS ON THE
MILD SIDE.

ADDITIONAL UPSTREAM SHORTWAVES/DISTURBANCES WILL BRUSH PAST OR
THROUGH THE REGION FOR THE COMING WEEK...BUT DO LITTLE BY WAY OF
USHERING IN ANY COOLER AIRMASS TEMPERATURES OR REDUCTION IN ML AND
UL THICKNESSES. THE MEAN FLOW WILL BECOME MORE ZONAL AND ULTIMATELY
SOUTHWESTERLY WHILE THE PERSISTENT NEGATIVE HEIGHT ANOMALY OVER THE
WEST MIGRATES EASTWARD AND DISSOLVES. HEIGHTS ACROSS THE REGION WILL
RISE STEADILY THROUGH THE WEEK...HERALDING A RETURN TO WARMER AND
DRIER CONDITIONS. GFS/ECMWF INDICATE THAT A WEAK PACIFIC TROUGH WILL
MOVE THROUGH THE DESERT SOUTHWEST WEDNESDAY...BUT THIS SYSTEM WILL
DO LITTLE TO TEMPER THE BUILDING HEAT. FORECAST IS WEIGHTED HEAVILY
TOWARDS THE OPERATIONAL AND ENSEMBLE-BASED ECMWF...WHICH ARE
EXHIBITING VERY LOW SPREAD AND ARE OFTEN TOP PERFORMERS IN THESE
TYPES OF SCENARIOS. WHAT THIS EQUATES TO IS LOWER DESERT HIGHS
RISING THROUGH THE 90S THROUGH MIDWEEK. HIGH TEMPERATURES MAY EXCEED
THE 100 DEGREE MARK AS EARLY AS FRIDAY IN PHOENIX BUT WILL REMAIN
WELL BELOW RECORDS.

&&

.AVIATION...
SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA INCLUDING KPHX...KIWA...AND KSDL...AND
SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA AND SOUTHWEST ARIZONA INCLUDING KIPL AND KBLH...

NO AVIATION IMPACTS EXPECTED THROUGH MONDAY. SCT-BKN MID-HIGH LEVEL
CLOUD LAYERS ASSOCIATED WITH WEAK WEATHER DISTURBANCE PASSING OVER
PHX AREA TERMINALS TO GIVE WAY TO MAINLY CLEAR SKIES FROM LATER THIS
EVENING INTO MONDAY AS DRIER AIR FILTERS IN FROM THE WEST. MAINLY
CLEAR SKIES TO PREVAIL AT BOTH KIPL AND KBLH THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.
WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENTS TO KEEP WINDS MAINLY AOB 10KTS THROUGH THE
PERIOD...MAINLY FOLLOWING TYPICAL DIURNAL PATTERNS.

AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDED TAFS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...
DRIER AND WARMER CONDITIONS TO MAKE THEIR WAY INTO THE REGION
THROUGH THE PERIOD AS HIGH PRESSURE GRADUALLY STRENGTHENS OVER THE
DESERT SOUTHWEST...WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES RISING TO NEAR...OR JUST
ABOVE 100 DEGREES AT MANY LOWER DESERT LOCATIONS FROM FRIDAY ONWARD
INTO NEXT WEEKEND. ALTHOUGH HUMIDITIES ARE EXPECTED TO FALL INTO THE
HIGH SINGLE-DIGIT TO MID-TEEN RANGE EACH AFTERNOON...THE COMBINATION
OF LIGHT WINDS AND FAIR-GOOD OVERNIGHT RECOVERIES WILL KEEP FIRE
DANGER LEVELS AT RELATIVELY LOW LEVELS THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.

&&

.PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AZ...NONE.
CA...NONE.
&&

$$

VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/PHOENIX

DISCUSSION...NOLTE/HIRSCH
AVIATION...PERCHA
FIRE WEATHER...PERCHA




000
FXUS65 KPSR 242039
AFDPSR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PHOENIX AZ
138 PM MST SUN MAY 24 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A SERIES OF WEAK WEATHER SYSTEMS MOVING THROUGH ARIZONA WILL KEEP
TEMPERATURES BELOW NORMAL THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE MEMORIAL DAY
WEEKEND. ANY ORGANIZED SHOWER ACTIVITY AND MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION
WILL REMAIN NORTH AND EAST OF PHOENIX TODAY AND MEMORIAL DAY. A
GRADUAL WARMING AND DRYING TREND WILL BEGIN IN THE EARLY WEEK...WITH
TEMPERATURES RETURNING TO THE UPPER 90S AND EVEN EXCEEDING THE 100
DEGREE MARK BY THE COMING WEEKEND.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

LATEST UPPER VORT MAX/COMPACT SHORTWAVE OFF THE LARGER PARENT LOW
OVER NORTHWEST CO AND SOUTHERN WY CONTINUES TO CARVE ITS WAY ACROSS
OUR FORECAST AREA THIS AFTERNOON. MAIN CIRC CENTER WAS MOVING ALONG
THE INTL BORDER HEADING INTO SOUTHEAST AZ THIS AFTERNOON AND
GENERATING A WELL-DEFINED MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUD SHIELD OVER SOUTH-
CENTRAL AZ. LATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY ALREADY SHOWS THE THICKER
CLOUDS HEADING EAST INTO SOUTHERN GILA COUNTY AND PATCHES OF BLUE
SKY ARE NOW VISIBLE ON PHOENIX-AREA WEBCAMS. DRIER AND SLIGHTLY
SUBSIDENT FLOW ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE VORT MAX HAS KEPT SKIES MOSTLY
CLEAR OVER THE LOWER CO RIVER VALLEY AND SOUTHEAST CA...SAVE FOR A
LIMITED FEW TERRAIN DRIVEN CU. AREA TEMPERATURES ARE RUNNING A FEW
DEGREES WARMER THAN THIS TIME YESTERDAY EVEN IN SPOTS UNDERNEATH THE
THICK...BUT PASSING...CLOUD COVER. SUBTLE ANTICYCLONIC AND STABLE
FLOW WILL FOLLOW THE VORT MAX AS IT CLEARS INTO SOUTHEAST AZ
TONIGHT...LEAVING SKIES MOSTLY CLEAR AND OVERNIGHT TEMPS ON THE
MILD SIDE.

ADDITIONAL UPSTREAM SHORTWAVES/DISTURBANCES WILL BRUSH PAST OR
THROUGH THE REGION FOR THE COMING WEEK...BUT DO LITTLE BY WAY OF
USHERING IN ANY COOLER AIRMASS TEMPERATURES OR REDUCTION IN ML AND
UL THICKNESSES. THE MEAN FLOW WILL BECOME MORE ZONAL AND ULTIMATELY
SOUTHWESTERLY WHILE THE PERSISTENT NEGATIVE HEIGHT ANOMALY OVER THE
WEST MIGRATES EASTWARD AND DISSOLVES. HEIGHTS ACROSS THE REGION WILL
RISE STEADILY THROUGH THE WEEK...HERALDING A RETURN TO WARMER AND
DRIER CONDITIONS. GFS/ECMWF INDICATE THAT A WEAK PACIFIC TROUGH WILL
MOVE THROUGH THE DESERT SOUTHWEST WEDNESDAY...BUT THIS SYSTEM WILL
DO LITTLE TO TEMPER THE BUILDING HEAT. FORECAST IS WEIGHTED HEAVILY
TOWARDS THE OPERATIONAL AND ENSEMBLE-BASED ECMWF...WHICH ARE
EXHIBITING VERY LOW SPREAD AND ARE OFTEN TOP PERFORMERS IN THESE
TYPES OF SCENARIOS. WHAT THIS EQUATES TO IS LOWER DESERT HIGHS
RISING THROUGH THE 90S THROUGH MIDWEEK. HIGH TEMPERATURES MAY EXCEED
THE 100 DEGREE MARK AS EARLY AS FRIDAY IN PHOENIX BUT WILL REMAIN
WELL BELOW RECORDS.

&&

.AVIATION...
SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA INCLUDING KPHX...KIWA...AND KSDL...AND
SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA AND SOUTHWEST ARIZONA INCLUDING KIPL AND KBLH...

NO AVIATION IMPACTS EXPECTED THROUGH MONDAY. SCT-BKN MID-HIGH LEVEL
CLOUD LAYERS ASSOCIATED WITH WEAK WEATHER DISTURBANCE PASSING OVER
PHX AREA TERMINALS TO GIVE WAY TO MAINLY CLEAR SKIES FROM LATER THIS
EVENING INTO MONDAY AS DRIER AIR FILTERS IN FROM THE WEST. MAINLY
CLEAR SKIES TO PREVAIL AT BOTH KIPL AND KBLH THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.
WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENTS TO KEEP WINDS MAINLY AOB 10KTS THROUGH THE
PERIOD...MAINLY FOLLOWING TYPICAL DIURNAL PATTERNS.

AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDED TAFS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...
DRIER AND WARMER CONDITIONS TO MAKE THEIR WAY INTO THE REGION
THROUGH THE PERIOD AS HIGH PRESSURE GRADUALLY STRENGTHENS OVER THE
DESERT SOUTHWEST...WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES RISING TO NEAR...OR JUST
ABOVE 100 DEGREES AT MANY LOWER DESERT LOCATIONS FROM FRIDAY ONWARD
INTO NEXT WEEKEND. ALTHOUGH HUMIDITIES ARE EXPECTED TO FALL INTO THE
HIGH SINGLE-DIGIT TO MID-TEEN RANGE EACH AFTERNOON...THE COMBINATION
OF LIGHT WINDS AND FAIR-GOOD OVERNIGHT RECOVERIES WILL KEEP FIRE
DANGER LEVELS AT RELATIVELY LOW LEVELS THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.

&&

.PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AZ...NONE.
CA...NONE.
&&

$$

VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/PHOENIX

DISCUSSION...NOLTE/HIRSCH
AVIATION...PERCHA
FIRE WEATHER...PERCHA



000
FXUS65 KTWC 241631
AFDTWC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ
930 AM MST SUN MAY 24 2015

.SYNOPSIS...A FEW SHOWERS MAY OCCUR FROM NEAR TUCSON EASTWARD TO THE
NEW MEXICO BORDER THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. A CHANCE OF SHOWERS
CONTINUES MEMORIAL DAY ACROSS THE WHITE MOUNTAINS. A WARMING TREND
WILL PREVAIL INTO TUESDAY FOLLOWED BY DRY CONDITIONS WITH NEAR
NORMAL DAYTIME TEMPERATURES WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...WEAK UPPER LOW WITH ASSOCIATED CYCLONIC CLOUD MASS
TWIST WAS EVIDENT VIA VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY OVER FAR SW ARIZONA/
SE CALIFORNIA AT THIS TIME. THIS UPPER LOW WILL MOVE EWD ACROSS SE
ARIZONA THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. 24/12Z NAM/GFS AND 24/15Z RUC
HRRR DEPICT LIGHT RAIN AMOUNTS TO DEVELOP GENERALLY FROM NEAR THE
TUCSON METRO AREA EWD ACROSS NRN COCHISE/SRN GRAHAM COUNTIES...AND
ERN SANTA CRUZ/SWRN COCHISE COUNTIES AROUND 21Z-22Z THIS AFTERNOON.
THE BULK OF THIS ACTIVITY IS THEN DEPICTED TO BE NEAR THE CATALINA/
RINCON MOUNTAINS EWD TO NEAR THE NEW MEXICO BORDER THIS EVENING.

HAVE NOTED THAT THE 24/12Z GFS MOS POPS HAVE TRENDED UPWARD VERSUS
PREVIOUS SOLUTIONS. WILL MODIFY THE 21Z-00Z GRIDDED DATA POPS TO
DEPICT A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS FOR THE TUCSON METRO AREA.
OTHERWISE...A CHANCE OF SHOWERS EXISTS THIS EVENING ACROSS THE WHITE
MOUNTAINS...AND A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS MAINLY FROM TUCSON EWD
ACROSS NRN COCHISE/SRN GRAHAM COUNTIES. ANY SHOWERS SHOULD BE EAST
OF THIS FORECAST AREA BY AROUND MIDNIGHT TONIGHT AS THE MID-LEVEL
TROUGH AXIS MOVES INTO SWRN NEW MEXICO.

RAINFALL AMOUNTS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS WEAK UPPER LOW WILL BE QUITE
LIGHT...GENERALLY RANGING FROM A TRACE UPWARD TO AROUND ONE TENTH OF
AN INCH OR SO. HOWEVER...ANY RAINFALL ON MAY 24 IS QUITE UNUSUAL. A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS CONTINUES ACROSS THE WHITE MOUNTAINS MON.

THEREAFTER...FLAT RIDGE OVER THE AREA TUE WILL MOVE EWD INTO THE
CENTRAL CONUS PLAINS WED IN RESPONSE TO THE NEXT DEEPENING UPPER
TROUGH WEST OF THE AREA. THE GFS/ECMWF/CMC WERE SIMILAR WITH MOVING
THIS UPPER TROUGH EWD INTO THE CENTRAL/SRN ROCKIES FRIDAY. IN SPITE
OF THE PRESENCE OF THIS UPPER TROUGH...APPEARS THAT PRECIP-FREE
CONDITIONS WILL OCCUR TUE-FRI. UPPER RIDGE IS THEN PROGGED TO
AMPLIFY OVER THE WRN CONUS SAT FOR CONTINUED DRY CONDITIONS.

HIGH TEMPS TODAY WILL BE A FEW DEGS WARMER VERSUS TEMPS ACHIEVED
SAT...THEN ABOUT 5 DEGS OR SO OF DAILY WARMING WILL OCCUR MON-TUE.
EXPECT ONLY VERY MINOR CHANGES IN DAYTIME TEMPS TUE-FRI...WITH
DAYTIME TEMPS TO BE QUITE CLOSE TO NORMAL FOR LATE MAY. HIGH TEMPS
SAT MAY THEN BECOME A FEW DEGS TO SEVERAL DEGS ABOVE NORMAL IN
RESPONSE TO INCREASED HEIGHTS/THICKNESSES OVER THE AREA.

&&

.AVIATION...VALID THRU 25/18Z.
A WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM ALOFT WILL MOVE EASTWARD ACROSS SE
ARIZONA THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. EXPECT ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
-SHRA AND PERHAPS A FEW -TSRA FROM KTUS VICINITY EASTWARD TO THE NEW
MEXICO BORDER THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THE BEST PERIOD FOR THIS
ACTIVITY APPEARS TO BE FROM 21Z THIS AFTERNOON TO AROUND 06Z MONDAY.
OTHERWISE...CLEAR SKIES THE REST OF THIS MORNING THEN SCATTERED TO
BROKEN CLOUDS AT 8-12K FT AGL THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING.
CLEARING SKIES FROM WEST-TO-EAST LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY MONDAY
MORNING. SURFACE WIND THIS AFTERNOON WILL BE SWLY TO NWLY AT 10-18
KTS WITH GUSTS OF 20-25 KTS. SURFACE WIND WILL BE LESS THAN 10 KTS
AT OTHER TIMES. AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR TAF AMENDMENTS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...THERE IS A CHANCE OF SHOWERS MAINLY ACROSS THE WHITE
MOUNTAINS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING AND AGAIN MONDAY. A FEW SHOWERS
MAY ALSO OCCUR THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING MAINLY FROM NEAR TUCSON
EASTWARD ACROSS COCHISE COUNTY. ANY RAINFALL IS EXPECTED TO BE QUITE
LIGHT...WITH AMOUNTS TO RANGE FROM A TRACE UPWARD TO AROUND ONE
TENTH OF AN INCH. OTHERWISE...DRY CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THIS WEEK.
EXPECT NORMAL DIURNAL WIND TRENDS...WITH GUSTS DURING THE AFTERNOON
HOURS DUE TO DAYTIME HEATING. A WARMING TREND WILL OCCUR THROUGH
TUESDAY FOLLOWED BY NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE IN DAYTIME TEMPERATURES
WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.

&&

.CLIMATE...THERE HAVE ONLY BEEN FIVE OCCURRENCES OF MEASURABLE
RAINFALL ON MAY 24 FOR TUCSON SINCE RECORDS STARTED IN 1894. TWO
OTHER OCCURRENCES HAD TRACE AMOUNTS OF RAINFALL. THE LAST RECORDED
RAINFALL ON MAY 24 WAS 1994 WITH 0.14 INCH.

&&

.TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...YOUTUBE...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/TUCSON

FRANCIS




000
FXUS65 KTWC 241631
AFDTWC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ
930 AM MST SUN MAY 24 2015

.SYNOPSIS...A FEW SHOWERS MAY OCCUR FROM NEAR TUCSON EASTWARD TO THE
NEW MEXICO BORDER THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. A CHANCE OF SHOWERS
CONTINUES MEMORIAL DAY ACROSS THE WHITE MOUNTAINS. A WARMING TREND
WILL PREVAIL INTO TUESDAY FOLLOWED BY DRY CONDITIONS WITH NEAR
NORMAL DAYTIME TEMPERATURES WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...WEAK UPPER LOW WITH ASSOCIATED CYCLONIC CLOUD MASS
TWIST WAS EVIDENT VIA VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY OVER FAR SW ARIZONA/
SE CALIFORNIA AT THIS TIME. THIS UPPER LOW WILL MOVE EWD ACROSS SE
ARIZONA THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. 24/12Z NAM/GFS AND 24/15Z RUC
HRRR DEPICT LIGHT RAIN AMOUNTS TO DEVELOP GENERALLY FROM NEAR THE
TUCSON METRO AREA EWD ACROSS NRN COCHISE/SRN GRAHAM COUNTIES...AND
ERN SANTA CRUZ/SWRN COCHISE COUNTIES AROUND 21Z-22Z THIS AFTERNOON.
THE BULK OF THIS ACTIVITY IS THEN DEPICTED TO BE NEAR THE CATALINA/
RINCON MOUNTAINS EWD TO NEAR THE NEW MEXICO BORDER THIS EVENING.

HAVE NOTED THAT THE 24/12Z GFS MOS POPS HAVE TRENDED UPWARD VERSUS
PREVIOUS SOLUTIONS. WILL MODIFY THE 21Z-00Z GRIDDED DATA POPS TO
DEPICT A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS FOR THE TUCSON METRO AREA.
OTHERWISE...A CHANCE OF SHOWERS EXISTS THIS EVENING ACROSS THE WHITE
MOUNTAINS...AND A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS MAINLY FROM TUCSON EWD
ACROSS NRN COCHISE/SRN GRAHAM COUNTIES. ANY SHOWERS SHOULD BE EAST
OF THIS FORECAST AREA BY AROUND MIDNIGHT TONIGHT AS THE MID-LEVEL
TROUGH AXIS MOVES INTO SWRN NEW MEXICO.

RAINFALL AMOUNTS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS WEAK UPPER LOW WILL BE QUITE
LIGHT...GENERALLY RANGING FROM A TRACE UPWARD TO AROUND ONE TENTH OF
AN INCH OR SO. HOWEVER...ANY RAINFALL ON MAY 24 IS QUITE UNUSUAL. A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS CONTINUES ACROSS THE WHITE MOUNTAINS MON.

THEREAFTER...FLAT RIDGE OVER THE AREA TUE WILL MOVE EWD INTO THE
CENTRAL CONUS PLAINS WED IN RESPONSE TO THE NEXT DEEPENING UPPER
TROUGH WEST OF THE AREA. THE GFS/ECMWF/CMC WERE SIMILAR WITH MOVING
THIS UPPER TROUGH EWD INTO THE CENTRAL/SRN ROCKIES FRIDAY. IN SPITE
OF THE PRESENCE OF THIS UPPER TROUGH...APPEARS THAT PRECIP-FREE
CONDITIONS WILL OCCUR TUE-FRI. UPPER RIDGE IS THEN PROGGED TO
AMPLIFY OVER THE WRN CONUS SAT FOR CONTINUED DRY CONDITIONS.

HIGH TEMPS TODAY WILL BE A FEW DEGS WARMER VERSUS TEMPS ACHIEVED
SAT...THEN ABOUT 5 DEGS OR SO OF DAILY WARMING WILL OCCUR MON-TUE.
EXPECT ONLY VERY MINOR CHANGES IN DAYTIME TEMPS TUE-FRI...WITH
DAYTIME TEMPS TO BE QUITE CLOSE TO NORMAL FOR LATE MAY. HIGH TEMPS
SAT MAY THEN BECOME A FEW DEGS TO SEVERAL DEGS ABOVE NORMAL IN
RESPONSE TO INCREASED HEIGHTS/THICKNESSES OVER THE AREA.

&&

.AVIATION...VALID THRU 25/18Z.
A WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM ALOFT WILL MOVE EASTWARD ACROSS SE
ARIZONA THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. EXPECT ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
-SHRA AND PERHAPS A FEW -TSRA FROM KTUS VICINITY EASTWARD TO THE NEW
MEXICO BORDER THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THE BEST PERIOD FOR THIS
ACTIVITY APPEARS TO BE FROM 21Z THIS AFTERNOON TO AROUND 06Z MONDAY.
OTHERWISE...CLEAR SKIES THE REST OF THIS MORNING THEN SCATTERED TO
BROKEN CLOUDS AT 8-12K FT AGL THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING.
CLEARING SKIES FROM WEST-TO-EAST LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY MONDAY
MORNING. SURFACE WIND THIS AFTERNOON WILL BE SWLY TO NWLY AT 10-18
KTS WITH GUSTS OF 20-25 KTS. SURFACE WIND WILL BE LESS THAN 10 KTS
AT OTHER TIMES. AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR TAF AMENDMENTS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...THERE IS A CHANCE OF SHOWERS MAINLY ACROSS THE WHITE
MOUNTAINS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING AND AGAIN MONDAY. A FEW SHOWERS
MAY ALSO OCCUR THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING MAINLY FROM NEAR TUCSON
EASTWARD ACROSS COCHISE COUNTY. ANY RAINFALL IS EXPECTED TO BE QUITE
LIGHT...WITH AMOUNTS TO RANGE FROM A TRACE UPWARD TO AROUND ONE
TENTH OF AN INCH. OTHERWISE...DRY CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THIS WEEK.
EXPECT NORMAL DIURNAL WIND TRENDS...WITH GUSTS DURING THE AFTERNOON
HOURS DUE TO DAYTIME HEATING. A WARMING TREND WILL OCCUR THROUGH
TUESDAY FOLLOWED BY NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE IN DAYTIME TEMPERATURES
WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.

&&

.CLIMATE...THERE HAVE ONLY BEEN FIVE OCCURRENCES OF MEASURABLE
RAINFALL ON MAY 24 FOR TUCSON SINCE RECORDS STARTED IN 1894. TWO
OTHER OCCURRENCES HAD TRACE AMOUNTS OF RAINFALL. THE LAST RECORDED
RAINFALL ON MAY 24 WAS 1994 WITH 0.14 INCH.

&&

.TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...YOUTUBE...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/TUCSON

FRANCIS



000
FXUS65 KFGZ 241627
AFDFGZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ
927 AM MST SUN MAY 24 2015

.SYNOPSIS... COOL AND UNSETTLED WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN
ACROSS THE NORTHLAND TODAY AND MEMORIAL DAY. SHOWERS WILL BE MOST
NUMEROUS FROM FLAGSTAFF NORTH TO THE UTAH BORDER. WARMER AND DRIER
WEATHER IS EXPECTED FROM TUESDAY ONWARD.

&&

.DISCUSSION...AN AREA OF WIDESPREAD RAIN MADE ITS WAY ACROSS FAR
NORTHERN ARIZONA OVERNIGHT WITH SOME LOCATIONS FROM THE NORTH RIM
OF THE GRAND CANYON EASTWARD THROUGH PAGE AND KAYENTA RECEIVING
0.50 TO OVER 1.00 INCH OF RAIN OVERNIGHT. THIS LINE IS MOVING
SOUTH TOWARD THE I-40 CORRIDOR THIS MORNING WITH MORE SCATTERED
SHOWERS BEING OBSERVED. IN ADDITION...A SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS JUST
APPROACHING SOUTHWEST ARIZONA NEAR YUMA AND WILL TRACK ACROSS
SOUTHERN ARIZONA TODAY. THIS MAY PROVIDE SLIGHT ADDITIONAL COOLING
ALOFT TO ENHANCE SHOWER ACTIVITY THIS AFTERNOON. OVERALL...EXPECT
SCATTERED SHOWERS WITH SOME EMBEDDED THUNDER THIS AFTERNOON
THROUGH EVENING FAVORING HIGH TERRAIN FROM THE MOGOLLON RIM NORTH
WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS POSSIBLE ELSEWHERE. UNSEASONABLY COOL
TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TODAY.

CHANCES FOR SHOWERS WILL LINGER THROUGH MEMORIAL DAY AND PERHAPS
EVEN TUESDAY...THOUGH DAYTIME TEMPS WILL BE NOTICEABLY WARMER. A
TRANSITION TO FAIR AND EVEN WARMER WEATHER IS ANTICIPATED FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE 7-DAY FORECAST.

&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 18Z PACKAGE...AN AREA OF SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS WILL AFFECT AREAS NORTH OF THE MOGOLLON RIM AND WHITE
MTNS AREA INTO EARLY EVENING. VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL...THOUGH
MVFR AND GUSTY WINDS WILL ACCOMPANY THE HEAVIER SHOWERS. MOUNTAINS
ABOVE 10KFT MSL MAY BE OBSCURED. COVERAGE OF SHOWERS WILL GENERALLY
DECREASE FOR MOST AREAS AFTER 02Z...HOWEVER MORE WIDESPREAD COVERAGE
COULD PERSIST OVERNIGHT NORTH OF KGCN-KRQE INCLUDING THE KPGA
TERMINAL. AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR TAF AMENDMENTS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE
EXPECTED AGAIN TODAY ALONG WITH CONTINUED COOL TEMPERATURES. THE
GREATEST PRECIPITATION COVERAGE WILL BE NORTH OF I-40. WETTING RAINS
ARE EXPECTED FOR THIS AREA. SOUTH OF THIS LINE...ONLY ISOLATED
SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL LINGER ON MEMORIAL DAY.

TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...DRIER AND MUCH WARMER CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY. LIGHTER WINDS THROUGH THE
PERIOD.

&&

.FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC...MCS/KD
AVIATION...MAS
FIRE WEATHER...JJ




000
FXUS65 KFGZ 241627
AFDFGZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ
927 AM MST SUN MAY 24 2015

.SYNOPSIS... COOL AND UNSETTLED WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN
ACROSS THE NORTHLAND TODAY AND MEMORIAL DAY. SHOWERS WILL BE MOST
NUMEROUS FROM FLAGSTAFF NORTH TO THE UTAH BORDER. WARMER AND DRIER
WEATHER IS EXPECTED FROM TUESDAY ONWARD.

&&

.DISCUSSION...AN AREA OF WIDESPREAD RAIN MADE ITS WAY ACROSS FAR
NORTHERN ARIZONA OVERNIGHT WITH SOME LOCATIONS FROM THE NORTH RIM
OF THE GRAND CANYON EASTWARD THROUGH PAGE AND KAYENTA RECEIVING
0.50 TO OVER 1.00 INCH OF RAIN OVERNIGHT. THIS LINE IS MOVING
SOUTH TOWARD THE I-40 CORRIDOR THIS MORNING WITH MORE SCATTERED
SHOWERS BEING OBSERVED. IN ADDITION...A SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS JUST
APPROACHING SOUTHWEST ARIZONA NEAR YUMA AND WILL TRACK ACROSS
SOUTHERN ARIZONA TODAY. THIS MAY PROVIDE SLIGHT ADDITIONAL COOLING
ALOFT TO ENHANCE SHOWER ACTIVITY THIS AFTERNOON. OVERALL...EXPECT
SCATTERED SHOWERS WITH SOME EMBEDDED THUNDER THIS AFTERNOON
THROUGH EVENING FAVORING HIGH TERRAIN FROM THE MOGOLLON RIM NORTH
WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS POSSIBLE ELSEWHERE. UNSEASONABLY COOL
TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TODAY.

CHANCES FOR SHOWERS WILL LINGER THROUGH MEMORIAL DAY AND PERHAPS
EVEN TUESDAY...THOUGH DAYTIME TEMPS WILL BE NOTICEABLY WARMER. A
TRANSITION TO FAIR AND EVEN WARMER WEATHER IS ANTICIPATED FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE 7-DAY FORECAST.

&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 18Z PACKAGE...AN AREA OF SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS WILL AFFECT AREAS NORTH OF THE MOGOLLON RIM AND WHITE
MTNS AREA INTO EARLY EVENING. VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL...THOUGH
MVFR AND GUSTY WINDS WILL ACCOMPANY THE HEAVIER SHOWERS. MOUNTAINS
ABOVE 10KFT MSL MAY BE OBSCURED. COVERAGE OF SHOWERS WILL GENERALLY
DECREASE FOR MOST AREAS AFTER 02Z...HOWEVER MORE WIDESPREAD COVERAGE
COULD PERSIST OVERNIGHT NORTH OF KGCN-KRQE INCLUDING THE KPGA
TERMINAL. AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR TAF AMENDMENTS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE
EXPECTED AGAIN TODAY ALONG WITH CONTINUED COOL TEMPERATURES. THE
GREATEST PRECIPITATION COVERAGE WILL BE NORTH OF I-40. WETTING RAINS
ARE EXPECTED FOR THIS AREA. SOUTH OF THIS LINE...ONLY ISOLATED
SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL LINGER ON MEMORIAL DAY.

TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...DRIER AND MUCH WARMER CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY. LIGHTER WINDS THROUGH THE
PERIOD.

&&

.FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC...MCS/KD
AVIATION...MAS
FIRE WEATHER...JJ



000
FXUS65 KPSR 241540
AFDPSR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PHOENIX AZ
840 AM MST SUN MAY 24 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A SERIES OF LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS MOVING THROUGH ARIZONA
WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES BELOW NORMAL THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
MEMORIAL DAY WEEKEND. ISOLATED SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IS
POSSIBLE OVER PARTS OF SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA
TODAY...THOUGH MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION WILL GENERALLY REMAIN NORTH
AND EAST OF PHOENIX. A GRADUAL WARMING AND DRYING TREND IS EXPECTED
EARLY THIS WEEK...WITH TEMPERATURES RETURNING TO THE UPPER 90S AND
EVEN EXCEEDING THE 100 DEGREE MARK BY THE WEEKEND.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
THE LATEST SHORTWAVE/COMPACT VORT MAX HAS REACHED THE CO RIVER
VALLEY THIS AM...INCREASING MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUD COVERAGE ACROSS
MUCH OF LA PAZ AND PORTIONS OF YUMA COUNTIES. CU AND CIRRUS FIELDS
THICK ENOUGH TO AT LEAST BE SAMPLED BY THE KYUX RADAR...WITH VERY
LIGHT REFLECTIVITIES ON THE ORDER OF 25DBZ OR LESS. SHORTWAVE AXIS
WILL CROSS INTO AZ AND CUT ACROSS SOUTH-CENTRAL AZ HEADING INTO
SOUTHEAST AZ BY THE AFTERNOON. FAIRLY LIMITED MOISTURE PROFILE
REMAINS WITH THIS FEATURE...DESPITE SFC DEWPOINTS PARTICULARLY
ACROSS THE CO RIVER SEEING READINGS IN THE 50S THIS AM. BLENDED TPW
IMAGERY INDICATE THE DEEPEST MOISTURE ALONG THE NORTH SIDE OF
CIRCULATION WITH A PRONOUNCED AREA OF DRYING/SUBSIDENCE ON THE S/SW
FLANK OF THE SYSTEM. WHILE NOT ONE LIKELY TO PRODUCE WETTING RAIN OR
EVEN MEASURABLE PRECIP...CAN IMAGINE WITH THE UPPER JET
DIVERGENCE/LIFT AND INCREASING CLOUD COVERAGE OVER WESTERN AZ...A
STRAY SHOWER AND PLENTY OF VIRGA WILL TRAVEL ALONG WITH THE AXIS
PASSAGE FROM WESTERN AZ...THROUGH YUMA/SW MARICOPA COUNTIES AND INTO
PIMA COUNTY FOR THE AFTERNOON. POP GRID ADJUSTMENTS MANAGED TO
SQUEAK OUT A FEW AREAS OF LIGHT RAIN/SPRINKLES OVER THE ABOVE
MENTIONED AREAS THROUGH THE DAY. STILL BELOW NORMAL UL HEIGHTS AND
COOLER AIRMASS TEMPS WILL SUPPORT ANOTHER BELOW NORMAL DAY IN TERMS
OF DAYTIME HIGHS WITH LOW TO UPPER 80S FOR MANY OF THE LOWER DESERT
ELEVATIONS.

&&

.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION /ISSUED AT 325 AM MST/PDT/...
LATEST STREAMLINE ANALYSIS SHOWS A WEAKENING UPPER LOW ACROSS
WESTERN CO WITH ANOTHER COMPACT VORT MAX DIVING SOUTHEASTWARD
THROUGH SOUTHERN CA. MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE THAT VORTICITY AND
JET-FORCED ASCENT WILL BE PREVALENT ACROSS SOUTHERN AZ TODAY AS THE
LOW SLIDES EASTWARD. WEAK WV TRANSPORT WILL BE AN INHIBITING FACTOR
TO WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION. HOWEVER...A FEW NCEP NMM-BASED WRFS
SUGGEST THAT INSTABILITY ASSOCIATED WITH THE MID-LEVEL COLD POOL
WILL BE SUFFICIENT TO GENERATE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS
PORTIONS OF SOUTHWESTERN AZ THIS AFTERNOON. MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION
REMAINS UNLIKELY IN THESE AREAS BUT A FEW LIGHTNING STRIKES ARE
POSSIBLE.

IN TERMS OF PRECIPITATION...MODEL CONSENSUS SUGGESTS THE BEST CHANCE
WILL AGAIN BE WELL NORTH AND EAST OF PHOENIX. ACROSS THE LOWER
ELEVATIONS...A DRY SUB-CLOUD LAYER WILL LIKELY RESULT IN AREAS OF
VIRGA WHERE CU FIELDS ARE THE MOST ORGANIZED. WITH ONE LOW EXITING
THE WEST AND ANOTHER MOVING THROUGH AZ...TEMPERATURES WILL AGAIN BE
BELOW NORMAL...BUT A FEW DEGREES WARMER THAN THOSE OBSERVED SATURDAY.

EARLY THIS WEEK...THE MEAN FLOW WILL BECOME MORE ZONAL AND
ULTIMATELY SOUTHWESTERLY WHILE THE PERSISTENT NEGATIVE HEIGHT
ANOMALY MIGRATES EASTWARD AND DISSOLVES. HEIGHTS ACROSS THE REGION
WILL RISE STEADILY THROUGH THE WEEK...HERALDING A RETURN TO WARMER
AND DRIER CONDITIONS. GFS/ECMWF INDICATE THAT A WEAK PACIFIC TROUGH
WILL MOVE THROUGH THE DESERT SOUTHWEST WEDNESDAY...BUT THIS SYSTEM
WILL DO LITTLE TO TEMPER THE BUILDING HEAT. FORECAST IS WEIGHTED
HEAVILY TOWARDS THE OPERATIONAL AND ENSEMBLE-BASED ECMWF...WHICH ARE
EXHIBITING VERY LOW SPREAD AND ARE OFTEN TOP PERFORMERS IN THESE
TYPES OF SCENARIOS. WHAT THIS EQUATES TO IS LOWER DESERT HIGHS RISING
THROUGH THE 90S THROUGH MIDWEEK. HIGH TEMPERATURES MAY EXCEED THE 100
DEGREE MARK AS EARLY AS FRIDAY IN PHOENIX BUT WILL REMAIN WELL BELOW
RECORDS.

&&

.AVIATION...
SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA INCLUDING KPHX...KIWA...AND KSDL...AND
SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA AND SOUTHWEST ARIZONA INCLUDING KIPL AND KBLH...

NO AVIATION IMPACTS EXPECTED INTO MONDAY. CLEAR SKIES THIS MORNING
WILL GIVE WAY TO SOME FEW TO SCT AFTERNOON MID AND HIGH CLOUDS
MAINLY TO THE NORTH OF THE PHOENIX AREA. SOME HIGH BASED CU IS
PROBABLE ALSO OVER HIGH TERRAIN AREAS THIS AFTERNOON AS A WEAK UPPER
LEVEL DISTURBANCE PASSES THROUGH SOUTHERN ARIZONA. A VERY WEAK
PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL KEEP WINDS LESS THAN 10 KTS THROUGH THE
PERIOD WHILE FOLLOWING TYPICAL DIURNAL PATTERNS IN THE PHOENIX AREA.

AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDED TAFS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...
DRIER AND WARMER CONDITIONS WILL DEVELOP INTO THE REGION OVER THE
COMING WEEK AND RESULT IN OUR WARMEST TEMPERATURES SO FAR THIS YEAR
BY NEXT WEEKEND. THE WEATHER PATTERN WILL STILL REMAIN SOMEWHAT
ACTIVE OVERHEAD...AS A FEW WEAK DISTURBANCES BRUSH PAST OR THROUGH
THE AREA. HOWEVER...THESE WILL BE ON THE DRY SIDE. TEMPERATURES WILL
GRADUALLY WARM CLOSER TOWARD SEASONAL NORMALS. AS A RESULT...
AFTERNOON RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES WILL FALL BACK INTO THE TEENS
FOLLOWING FAIR TO GOOD OVERNIGHT RECOVERY. HOWEVER...WINDS WILL
GENERALLY REMAIN LIGHT FOLLOWING TYPICAL DAILY PATTERNS LEADING TO
MINIMAL FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS.

&&

.PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AZ...NONE.
CA...NONE.
&&

$$

VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/PHOENIX

DISCUSSION...NOLTE
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...HIRSCH
AVIATION...KUHLMAN
FIRE WEATHER...NOLTE/MO




000
FXUS65 KPSR 241540
AFDPSR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PHOENIX AZ
840 AM MST SUN MAY 24 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A SERIES OF LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS MOVING THROUGH ARIZONA
WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES BELOW NORMAL THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
MEMORIAL DAY WEEKEND. ISOLATED SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IS
POSSIBLE OVER PARTS OF SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA
TODAY...THOUGH MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION WILL GENERALLY REMAIN NORTH
AND EAST OF PHOENIX. A GRADUAL WARMING AND DRYING TREND IS EXPECTED
EARLY THIS WEEK...WITH TEMPERATURES RETURNING TO THE UPPER 90S AND
EVEN EXCEEDING THE 100 DEGREE MARK BY THE WEEKEND.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
THE LATEST SHORTWAVE/COMPACT VORT MAX HAS REACHED THE CO RIVER
VALLEY THIS AM...INCREASING MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUD COVERAGE ACROSS
MUCH OF LA PAZ AND PORTIONS OF YUMA COUNTIES. CU AND CIRRUS FIELDS
THICK ENOUGH TO AT LEAST BE SAMPLED BY THE KYUX RADAR...WITH VERY
LIGHT REFLECTIVITIES ON THE ORDER OF 25DBZ OR LESS. SHORTWAVE AXIS
WILL CROSS INTO AZ AND CUT ACROSS SOUTH-CENTRAL AZ HEADING INTO
SOUTHEAST AZ BY THE AFTERNOON. FAIRLY LIMITED MOISTURE PROFILE
REMAINS WITH THIS FEATURE...DESPITE SFC DEWPOINTS PARTICULARLY
ACROSS THE CO RIVER SEEING READINGS IN THE 50S THIS AM. BLENDED TPW
IMAGERY INDICATE THE DEEPEST MOISTURE ALONG THE NORTH SIDE OF
CIRCULATION WITH A PRONOUNCED AREA OF DRYING/SUBSIDENCE ON THE S/SW
FLANK OF THE SYSTEM. WHILE NOT ONE LIKELY TO PRODUCE WETTING RAIN OR
EVEN MEASURABLE PRECIP...CAN IMAGINE WITH THE UPPER JET
DIVERGENCE/LIFT AND INCREASING CLOUD COVERAGE OVER WESTERN AZ...A
STRAY SHOWER AND PLENTY OF VIRGA WILL TRAVEL ALONG WITH THE AXIS
PASSAGE FROM WESTERN AZ...THROUGH YUMA/SW MARICOPA COUNTIES AND INTO
PIMA COUNTY FOR THE AFTERNOON. POP GRID ADJUSTMENTS MANAGED TO
SQUEAK OUT A FEW AREAS OF LIGHT RAIN/SPRINKLES OVER THE ABOVE
MENTIONED AREAS THROUGH THE DAY. STILL BELOW NORMAL UL HEIGHTS AND
COOLER AIRMASS TEMPS WILL SUPPORT ANOTHER BELOW NORMAL DAY IN TERMS
OF DAYTIME HIGHS WITH LOW TO UPPER 80S FOR MANY OF THE LOWER DESERT
ELEVATIONS.

&&

.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION /ISSUED AT 325 AM MST/PDT/...
LATEST STREAMLINE ANALYSIS SHOWS A WEAKENING UPPER LOW ACROSS
WESTERN CO WITH ANOTHER COMPACT VORT MAX DIVING SOUTHEASTWARD
THROUGH SOUTHERN CA. MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE THAT VORTICITY AND
JET-FORCED ASCENT WILL BE PREVALENT ACROSS SOUTHERN AZ TODAY AS THE
LOW SLIDES EASTWARD. WEAK WV TRANSPORT WILL BE AN INHIBITING FACTOR
TO WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION. HOWEVER...A FEW NCEP NMM-BASED WRFS
SUGGEST THAT INSTABILITY ASSOCIATED WITH THE MID-LEVEL COLD POOL
WILL BE SUFFICIENT TO GENERATE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS
PORTIONS OF SOUTHWESTERN AZ THIS AFTERNOON. MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION
REMAINS UNLIKELY IN THESE AREAS BUT A FEW LIGHTNING STRIKES ARE
POSSIBLE.

IN TERMS OF PRECIPITATION...MODEL CONSENSUS SUGGESTS THE BEST CHANCE
WILL AGAIN BE WELL NORTH AND EAST OF PHOENIX. ACROSS THE LOWER
ELEVATIONS...A DRY SUB-CLOUD LAYER WILL LIKELY RESULT IN AREAS OF
VIRGA WHERE CU FIELDS ARE THE MOST ORGANIZED. WITH ONE LOW EXITING
THE WEST AND ANOTHER MOVING THROUGH AZ...TEMPERATURES WILL AGAIN BE
BELOW NORMAL...BUT A FEW DEGREES WARMER THAN THOSE OBSERVED SATURDAY.

EARLY THIS WEEK...THE MEAN FLOW WILL BECOME MORE ZONAL AND
ULTIMATELY SOUTHWESTERLY WHILE THE PERSISTENT NEGATIVE HEIGHT
ANOMALY MIGRATES EASTWARD AND DISSOLVES. HEIGHTS ACROSS THE REGION
WILL RISE STEADILY THROUGH THE WEEK...HERALDING A RETURN TO WARMER
AND DRIER CONDITIONS. GFS/ECMWF INDICATE THAT A WEAK PACIFIC TROUGH
WILL MOVE THROUGH THE DESERT SOUTHWEST WEDNESDAY...BUT THIS SYSTEM
WILL DO LITTLE TO TEMPER THE BUILDING HEAT. FORECAST IS WEIGHTED
HEAVILY TOWARDS THE OPERATIONAL AND ENSEMBLE-BASED ECMWF...WHICH ARE
EXHIBITING VERY LOW SPREAD AND ARE OFTEN TOP PERFORMERS IN THESE
TYPES OF SCENARIOS. WHAT THIS EQUATES TO IS LOWER DESERT HIGHS RISING
THROUGH THE 90S THROUGH MIDWEEK. HIGH TEMPERATURES MAY EXCEED THE 100
DEGREE MARK AS EARLY AS FRIDAY IN PHOENIX BUT WILL REMAIN WELL BELOW
RECORDS.

&&

.AVIATION...
SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA INCLUDING KPHX...KIWA...AND KSDL...AND
SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA AND SOUTHWEST ARIZONA INCLUDING KIPL AND KBLH...

NO AVIATION IMPACTS EXPECTED INTO MONDAY. CLEAR SKIES THIS MORNING
WILL GIVE WAY TO SOME FEW TO SCT AFTERNOON MID AND HIGH CLOUDS
MAINLY TO THE NORTH OF THE PHOENIX AREA. SOME HIGH BASED CU IS
PROBABLE ALSO OVER HIGH TERRAIN AREAS THIS AFTERNOON AS A WEAK UPPER
LEVEL DISTURBANCE PASSES THROUGH SOUTHERN ARIZONA. A VERY WEAK
PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL KEEP WINDS LESS THAN 10 KTS THROUGH THE
PERIOD WHILE FOLLOWING TYPICAL DIURNAL PATTERNS IN THE PHOENIX AREA.

AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDED TAFS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...
DRIER AND WARMER CONDITIONS WILL DEVELOP INTO THE REGION OVER THE
COMING WEEK AND RESULT IN OUR WARMEST TEMPERATURES SO FAR THIS YEAR
BY NEXT WEEKEND. THE WEATHER PATTERN WILL STILL REMAIN SOMEWHAT
ACTIVE OVERHEAD...AS A FEW WEAK DISTURBANCES BRUSH PAST OR THROUGH
THE AREA. HOWEVER...THESE WILL BE ON THE DRY SIDE. TEMPERATURES WILL
GRADUALLY WARM CLOSER TOWARD SEASONAL NORMALS. AS A RESULT...
AFTERNOON RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES WILL FALL BACK INTO THE TEENS
FOLLOWING FAIR TO GOOD OVERNIGHT RECOVERY. HOWEVER...WINDS WILL
GENERALLY REMAIN LIGHT FOLLOWING TYPICAL DAILY PATTERNS LEADING TO
MINIMAL FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS.

&&

.PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AZ...NONE.
CA...NONE.
&&

$$

VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/PHOENIX

DISCUSSION...NOLTE
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...HIRSCH
AVIATION...KUHLMAN
FIRE WEATHER...NOLTE/MO



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