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000
FXUS65 KPSR 201105
AFDPSR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PHOENIX AZ
400 AM MST MON OCT 20 2014

.UPDATED...AVIATION AND FIRE WEATHER DISCUSSIONS...

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
GRADUAL DRYING WILL OCCUR THIS WEEK...BUT THERE WILL AGAIN BE
SLIGHT CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS
NORTH AND EAST OF PHOENIX DURING THE DAYTIME HOURS TODAY AND
TUESDAY. SOME WARMING IS EXPECTED BY MID WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND WITH
TEMPERATURES SEVERAL DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL AS HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES
OVERHEAD.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
AFTER A BUSY EVENING YESTERDAY WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS REACHING INTO THE LOWER DESERTS...CONDITIONS ACROSS
THE REGION HAVE QUIETED DOWN. SKIES HAVE CLEARED FOR THE MOST PART
WITH THE CLOSED UPPER LOW CURRENTLY CENTERED OVER NORTHERN SONORA
MEXICO SLOWLY MAKING EASTWARD PROGRESS. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE REMAINS
FAIRLY HIGH AFTER AN UPTICK YESTERDAY AND WILL AGAIN ALLOW FOR MORE
CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING...THOUGH FURTHER TO THE EAST THAN ON SUNDAY. THE UPPER LOW
IS FORECAST TO BE JUST TO THE SOUTHEAST OF TUCSON BY LATE THIS
AFTERNOON RESULTING IN A LESS FAVORABLE ATMOSPHERIC PROFILE FOR
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW
A SIMILAR MOISTURE PROFILE COMPARED TO YESTERDAY...BUT WARMING IN
THE MID LEVELS WILL OCCUR AS THE UPPER LOW MOVES EASTWARD. THIS
WARMING WILL LEAD TO MORE STABLE CONDITIONS FOR TODAY...ESPECIALLY
ACROSS THE LOWER DESERTS. WITH LESS INSTABILITY THIS
AFTERNOON...FEEL STORMS WILL BE MORE ISOLATED IN NATURE...LESS
ORGANIZED...AND THUS PRODUCE LESS OUTFLOWS. THE STRONG OUTFLOWS ON
SUNDAY IS WHAT ALLOWED FOR STORMS TO PROPAGATE WESTWARD INTO THE
LOWER DESERTS...SO A REPEAT OF SUNDAY IS NOT ANTICIPATED.

LINGERING MOISTURE ON TUESDAY SHOULD STILL ALLOW FOR A FEW ISOLATED
SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS EASTERN GILA COUNTY...BUT THE
GRADUAL DRYING WILL EVENTUALLY TAKE AWAY ANY THREAT OF AFTERNOON
CONVECTION BY THURSDAY. THE DESERT SOUTHWEST WILL STAY WELL SOUTH OF
THE MAIN PACIFIC JET STREAM THIS WEEK WHILE A STRONG PACIFIC RIDGE
EVENTUALLY SHIFTS EASTWARD OVER THE REGION BY THURSDAY INTO THE
WEEKEND. 500MB HEIGHTS WILL BUILD TO NEAR 588DM LATE THIS WEEK
PROVIDING FOR A WARMING TREND DURING THE PERIOD. FORECAST HIGHS WILL
LIKELY MOVE INTO THE MIDDLE 90S ACROSS THE LOWER DESERTS OF
SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA AND SOUTHWEST ARIZONA FOR THURSDAY THROUGH
SATURDAY. A SLIGHT COOLDOWN IS PROBABLE STARTING EITHER SUNDAY OR
NEXT MONDAY AS THE RIDGE IS SHOWN TO BREAK DOWN AND BROAD SCALE
TROUGHING SHIFTS SOUTHWARD INTO THE SOUTHWESTERN UNITED STATES. THE
DRY WEATHER STARTING BY LATE THIS WEEK IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...
SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA INCLUDING KPHX...KIWA AND KSDL...SOUTHEAST
CALIFORNIA AND SOUTHWEST ARIZONA INCLUDING KIPL AND KBLH...

THROUGH 03Z TUE...MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES. LIGHT WIND UNDER 8 KNOTS.

AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDED TAFS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...
A HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BUILD OVER THE REGION. DRY WEATHER WITH
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED. AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES WILL
BE AS HIGH AS 8 TO 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. MINIMUM HUMIDITY LEVELS
WILL ALSO FALL INTO THE 15 TO 20 PERCENT RANGE. LIGHT WINDS.

&&

.PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

AZ...NONE.

CA...NONE.

&&

$$

VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/PHOENIX

DISCUSSION...KUHLMAN
AVIATION...VASQUEZ
FIRE WEATHER...VASQUEZ











000
FXUS65 KPSR 201105
AFDPSR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PHOENIX AZ
400 AM MST MON OCT 20 2014

.UPDATED...AVIATION AND FIRE WEATHER DISCUSSIONS...

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
GRADUAL DRYING WILL OCCUR THIS WEEK...BUT THERE WILL AGAIN BE
SLIGHT CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS
NORTH AND EAST OF PHOENIX DURING THE DAYTIME HOURS TODAY AND
TUESDAY. SOME WARMING IS EXPECTED BY MID WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND WITH
TEMPERATURES SEVERAL DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL AS HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES
OVERHEAD.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
AFTER A BUSY EVENING YESTERDAY WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS REACHING INTO THE LOWER DESERTS...CONDITIONS ACROSS
THE REGION HAVE QUIETED DOWN. SKIES HAVE CLEARED FOR THE MOST PART
WITH THE CLOSED UPPER LOW CURRENTLY CENTERED OVER NORTHERN SONORA
MEXICO SLOWLY MAKING EASTWARD PROGRESS. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE REMAINS
FAIRLY HIGH AFTER AN UPTICK YESTERDAY AND WILL AGAIN ALLOW FOR MORE
CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING...THOUGH FURTHER TO THE EAST THAN ON SUNDAY. THE UPPER LOW
IS FORECAST TO BE JUST TO THE SOUTHEAST OF TUCSON BY LATE THIS
AFTERNOON RESULTING IN A LESS FAVORABLE ATMOSPHERIC PROFILE FOR
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW
A SIMILAR MOISTURE PROFILE COMPARED TO YESTERDAY...BUT WARMING IN
THE MID LEVELS WILL OCCUR AS THE UPPER LOW MOVES EASTWARD. THIS
WARMING WILL LEAD TO MORE STABLE CONDITIONS FOR TODAY...ESPECIALLY
ACROSS THE LOWER DESERTS. WITH LESS INSTABILITY THIS
AFTERNOON...FEEL STORMS WILL BE MORE ISOLATED IN NATURE...LESS
ORGANIZED...AND THUS PRODUCE LESS OUTFLOWS. THE STRONG OUTFLOWS ON
SUNDAY IS WHAT ALLOWED FOR STORMS TO PROPAGATE WESTWARD INTO THE
LOWER DESERTS...SO A REPEAT OF SUNDAY IS NOT ANTICIPATED.

LINGERING MOISTURE ON TUESDAY SHOULD STILL ALLOW FOR A FEW ISOLATED
SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS EASTERN GILA COUNTY...BUT THE
GRADUAL DRYING WILL EVENTUALLY TAKE AWAY ANY THREAT OF AFTERNOON
CONVECTION BY THURSDAY. THE DESERT SOUTHWEST WILL STAY WELL SOUTH OF
THE MAIN PACIFIC JET STREAM THIS WEEK WHILE A STRONG PACIFIC RIDGE
EVENTUALLY SHIFTS EASTWARD OVER THE REGION BY THURSDAY INTO THE
WEEKEND. 500MB HEIGHTS WILL BUILD TO NEAR 588DM LATE THIS WEEK
PROVIDING FOR A WARMING TREND DURING THE PERIOD. FORECAST HIGHS WILL
LIKELY MOVE INTO THE MIDDLE 90S ACROSS THE LOWER DESERTS OF
SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA AND SOUTHWEST ARIZONA FOR THURSDAY THROUGH
SATURDAY. A SLIGHT COOLDOWN IS PROBABLE STARTING EITHER SUNDAY OR
NEXT MONDAY AS THE RIDGE IS SHOWN TO BREAK DOWN AND BROAD SCALE
TROUGHING SHIFTS SOUTHWARD INTO THE SOUTHWESTERN UNITED STATES. THE
DRY WEATHER STARTING BY LATE THIS WEEK IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...
SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA INCLUDING KPHX...KIWA AND KSDL...SOUTHEAST
CALIFORNIA AND SOUTHWEST ARIZONA INCLUDING KIPL AND KBLH...

THROUGH 03Z TUE...MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES. LIGHT WIND UNDER 8 KNOTS.

AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDED TAFS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...
A HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BUILD OVER THE REGION. DRY WEATHER WITH
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED. AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES WILL
BE AS HIGH AS 8 TO 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. MINIMUM HUMIDITY LEVELS
WILL ALSO FALL INTO THE 15 TO 20 PERCENT RANGE. LIGHT WINDS.

&&

.PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

AZ...NONE.

CA...NONE.

&&

$$

VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/PHOENIX

DISCUSSION...KUHLMAN
AVIATION...VASQUEZ
FIRE WEATHER...VASQUEZ











  [top]

000
FXUS65 KFGZ 201041
AFDFGZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ
340 AM MST MON OCT 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...EXPECT ISOLATED TO SCATTERED AFTERNOON AND EVENING
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH MONDAY...WITH DRYING DEVELOPING
FROM THE WEST ON TUESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD IN ACROSS
ARIZONA ON WEDNESDAY...BRINGING DRY CONDITIONS AND A WARMING TREND
INTO NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.DISCUSSION...CYCLONIC FLOW REMAINS OVER ARIZONA...DESPITE THE UPPER
LOW FROM YESTERDAY MOVING INTO NEW MEXICO. THE AIRMASS BELOW 500MB
REMAINS MODERATELY MOIST AND UNSTABLE...AND SOUTHEAST FLOW IN THIS
LAYER WILL KEEP OUR AREA FROM DRYING OUT. EXPECT SHALLOW CONVECTION
AS A RESULT...MAINLY SOUTH AND EAST OF THE MOGOLLON RIM. A TROUGH
MOVING INTO THE GREAT BASIN TUESDAY WILL PROVIDE SOME ADDITIONAL
FORCING AND COOLING ALOFT...WITH ISOLATED SHALLOW CONVECTIVE SHOWERS
AGAIN POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY NEAR THE NEW MEXICO BORDER. FINALLY...BY
WEDNESDAY...DRIER WESTERLY FLOW WILL TAKE OVER...ALONG WITH RISING
HGHTS...HEADING INTO NEXT WEEKEND. THIS WILL EFFECTIVELY END THE
PRECIPITATION THREAT ACROSS OUR AREA AND KEEP TEMPERATURES
SEASONABLY WARM.

&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 12Z PACKAGE...EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS THRU 18Z.
THEN...WDLY SCT TO SCT -SHRA/-TSRA OVER HIGHER TERRAIN WITH THE
HIGHEST CONCENTRATION OF STORMS ALONG THE MOGOLLON RIM AND WHITE
MTNS...DECREASING BTWN 01Z-03Z TUE. MVFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE WITH
THE STRONGEST STORMS. AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR
AMENDMENTS.

&&

.FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC.........PETERSON
AVIATION.......TC

FOR NORTHERN ARIZONA WEATHER INFORMATION VISIT
WEATHER.GOV/FLAGSTAFF





000
FXUS65 KFGZ 201041
AFDFGZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ
340 AM MST MON OCT 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...EXPECT ISOLATED TO SCATTERED AFTERNOON AND EVENING
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH MONDAY...WITH DRYING DEVELOPING
FROM THE WEST ON TUESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD IN ACROSS
ARIZONA ON WEDNESDAY...BRINGING DRY CONDITIONS AND A WARMING TREND
INTO NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.DISCUSSION...CYCLONIC FLOW REMAINS OVER ARIZONA...DESPITE THE UPPER
LOW FROM YESTERDAY MOVING INTO NEW MEXICO. THE AIRMASS BELOW 500MB
REMAINS MODERATELY MOIST AND UNSTABLE...AND SOUTHEAST FLOW IN THIS
LAYER WILL KEEP OUR AREA FROM DRYING OUT. EXPECT SHALLOW CONVECTION
AS A RESULT...MAINLY SOUTH AND EAST OF THE MOGOLLON RIM. A TROUGH
MOVING INTO THE GREAT BASIN TUESDAY WILL PROVIDE SOME ADDITIONAL
FORCING AND COOLING ALOFT...WITH ISOLATED SHALLOW CONVECTIVE SHOWERS
AGAIN POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY NEAR THE NEW MEXICO BORDER. FINALLY...BY
WEDNESDAY...DRIER WESTERLY FLOW WILL TAKE OVER...ALONG WITH RISING
HGHTS...HEADING INTO NEXT WEEKEND. THIS WILL EFFECTIVELY END THE
PRECIPITATION THREAT ACROSS OUR AREA AND KEEP TEMPERATURES
SEASONABLY WARM.

&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 12Z PACKAGE...EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS THRU 18Z.
THEN...WDLY SCT TO SCT -SHRA/-TSRA OVER HIGHER TERRAIN WITH THE
HIGHEST CONCENTRATION OF STORMS ALONG THE MOGOLLON RIM AND WHITE
MTNS...DECREASING BTWN 01Z-03Z TUE. MVFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE WITH
THE STRONGEST STORMS. AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR
AMENDMENTS.

&&

.FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC.........PETERSON
AVIATION.......TC

FOR NORTHERN ARIZONA WEATHER INFORMATION VISIT
WEATHER.GOV/FLAGSTAFF



  [top]

000
FXUS65 KTWC 200936
AFDTWC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ
230 AM MST MON OCT 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...A SLOW MOVING WEATHER SYSTEM OVER NORTHERN MEXICO WILL
KEEP THE CHANCE OF RAIN IN THE FORECAST THROUGH TUESDAY...WITH THE
MOST FAVORABLE AREA FOR STORM DEVELOPMENT SHIFTING INTO EASTERN
AREAS. STRONG HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING DRIER CONDITIONS THE SECOND
HALF OF THE WEEK ALONG WITH MUCH WARMER TEMPERATURES. NEAR RECORD
HIGH TEMPERATURES POSSIBLE IN SOME LOCATIONS THURSDAY INTO SATURDAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...AT 2 AM THE MID LEVEL LOW CONTINUES TO TRACK ACROSS
FAR NORTHERN SONORA NEAR THE ARIZONA BORDER...JUST SOUTH OF SANTA
CRUZ COUNTY. THIS CUT-OFF HAS FILLED A LITTLE AS IT DRIFTS VERY
SLOWLY EASTWARD. A LITTLE BIT OF MID LEVEL DRYING IS STARTING TO EAT
AWAY AT SOME OF THE AVAILABLE MOISTURE...HOWEVER .75 TO .9
PRECIPITABLE WATER SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO SEE STORMS RETURN TO THE AREA
THIS AFTERNOON.

THE MOST FAVORABLE AREA OF UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE ON THE ACTIVE
EASTERN TO NORTHERN PORTION OF THE LOW WILL FURTHER EMPHASIZE
EASTERN AREAS TODAY WITH BEST STORM CHANCES EAST OF TUCSON.
HOWEVER...IT SHOULD BE NOTED THAT INSTEAD OF YESTERDAY`S SOUTHERLY
FLOW...MUCH OF THE AREA WILL BE DEVELOPING AN EASTERLY STEERING
LEVEL FLOW ON THE NORTHERN FLANK OF THE LOW. THIS WILL STEER A FEW
STORMS ONCE AGAIN TOWARD CENTRAL AREAS INCLUDING THE GREATER TUCSON
AREA. THE BEST ORGANIZED AREAS SHOULD BE EAST OF TUCSON HOWEVER.

BY LATE TUESDAY THE LOW SHOULD START TO SHEAR AND LIFT INTO THE
FRONT OF KICKER SYSTEM PUSHING THROUGH THE REGION NORTH OF US...WITH
A WEAK TROUGH INFLECTION DEVELOPING THROUGH NEW MEXICO BY EARLY
WEDNESDAY.

OUR ATTENTION THEN SHIFTS TO A DEVELOPING RIDGE FOR THE SECOND HALF
OF THE WEEK. MEDIUM RANGE RESOLUTIONS CLEARLY AND REASONABLY DEVELOP
AN UNSEASONABLY STRONG RIDGE BUILDING THROUGH ARIZONA THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY WITH THE RIDGE AXIS DIRECTLY OVERHEAD OF SOUTHEAST ARIZONA.
SLIGHTLY DEEPER AND SLOWER TIMING OF ECMWF PREFERRED DUE TO
CONTINUED FAVORABLE ENSEMBLE MEAN TRENDS FOR THE INITIAL RIDGE
DEVELOPMENT THURSDAY AND NORMALIZED STANDARD DEVIATION TRENDS OVER
THE PAST 30 DAYS (HOWEVER IT SHOULD BE NOTED THAT ENSEMBLE TRENDS
ARE LESS FAVORABLE FOR THE POSITION OF THE DEVELOPING TROUGH THROUGH
THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST). WITH THIS IN MIND...HEIGHT AND THICKNESS
VALUES CONTINUE TO SUPPORT AFTERNOON SURFACE HIGHS NEAR RECORD
LEVELS AS EARLY AS THURSDAY WITH FRIDAY MAXING OUT 850-700MB
THICKNESS VALUES AROUND 165.6DAM. THIS WOULD SUPPORT A 93 TO 95 AT
TIA. IF WE WERE TO MANAGE A 95 FRIDAY (THE 24TH) IT WOULD BE THE
THIRD LATEST 95 DEGREE DATE EVER FOR TUCSON...WITH THE LATEST EVER
OCCURRING ON THE 26TH IN 2001 AND 1934.

A HIGHLY AMPLIFIED PATTERN DEVELOPING WHICH WILL TEND TO SLOW THINGS
DOWN...HOWEVER THE MID LEVEL REFLECTION OF THE RIDGE WILL STILL
PROBABLY SHIFT INTO NEW MEXICO BY LATE SATURDAY. THICKNESS VALUES
WILL STILL BE THERE FOR SE AZ FOR NEAR RECORD HIGHS SATURDAY...BUT
STARTING TO LOSE MID LEVEL HEIGHT SUPPORT WITH TRENDS STARTING
DOWN...SO PROBABLY DOWN A DEGREE OR TWO FROM FRIDAY.

MODEST CAA BEHIND A DRY TROUGH (FOR OUR LATITUDE) SUNDAY AND MONDAY
AS AFTERNOON HIGHS DROP BACK TOWARD CLIMO.

&&

.AVIATION...VALID THRU 21/09Z.
THE WEAK MID LEVEL LOW JUST SOUTH OF THE BORDER WILL STILL HAVE
ENOUGH MOISTURE TO WORK WITH FOR A CHANCE OF -TSRA TODAY...HOWEVER
THE BEST AREA OF COVERAGE SHOULD BE EAST OF KTUS. FEW-BKN CLOUDS
7-12KFT AGL WITH GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS OUTSIDE OF TSRA. EASTERLY
SURFACE WINDS GENERALLY LESS THAN 10KTS OUTSIDE OF GUSTY OUTFLOWS
NEAR ANY TSRA. AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR TAF AMENDMENTS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...A WEAK LOW NEAR THE AREA IN COMBINATION WITH MODEST
MOISTURE WILL RESULT IN A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
THROUGH TUESDAY...MAINLY FROM TUCSON EASTWARD. DRY CONDITIONS WILL
THEN OCCUR AREA WIDE FOR THE END OF THE WORK WEEK WITH SIGNIFICANTLY
ABOVE NORMAL HIGH TEMPERATURES. 20-FOOT WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE
DIURNAL AND LESS THAN 15 MPH THIS WEEK.  SOME GUSTY WINDS ARE
POSSIBLE NEAR ANY THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

$$

VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...YOUTUBE...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/TUCSON

MEYER/MEADOWS






000
FXUS65 KTWC 200936
AFDTWC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ
230 AM MST MON OCT 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...A SLOW MOVING WEATHER SYSTEM OVER NORTHERN MEXICO WILL
KEEP THE CHANCE OF RAIN IN THE FORECAST THROUGH TUESDAY...WITH THE
MOST FAVORABLE AREA FOR STORM DEVELOPMENT SHIFTING INTO EASTERN
AREAS. STRONG HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING DRIER CONDITIONS THE SECOND
HALF OF THE WEEK ALONG WITH MUCH WARMER TEMPERATURES. NEAR RECORD
HIGH TEMPERATURES POSSIBLE IN SOME LOCATIONS THURSDAY INTO SATURDAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...AT 2 AM THE MID LEVEL LOW CONTINUES TO TRACK ACROSS
FAR NORTHERN SONORA NEAR THE ARIZONA BORDER...JUST SOUTH OF SANTA
CRUZ COUNTY. THIS CUT-OFF HAS FILLED A LITTLE AS IT DRIFTS VERY
SLOWLY EASTWARD. A LITTLE BIT OF MID LEVEL DRYING IS STARTING TO EAT
AWAY AT SOME OF THE AVAILABLE MOISTURE...HOWEVER .75 TO .9
PRECIPITABLE WATER SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO SEE STORMS RETURN TO THE AREA
THIS AFTERNOON.

THE MOST FAVORABLE AREA OF UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE ON THE ACTIVE
EASTERN TO NORTHERN PORTION OF THE LOW WILL FURTHER EMPHASIZE
EASTERN AREAS TODAY WITH BEST STORM CHANCES EAST OF TUCSON.
HOWEVER...IT SHOULD BE NOTED THAT INSTEAD OF YESTERDAY`S SOUTHERLY
FLOW...MUCH OF THE AREA WILL BE DEVELOPING AN EASTERLY STEERING
LEVEL FLOW ON THE NORTHERN FLANK OF THE LOW. THIS WILL STEER A FEW
STORMS ONCE AGAIN TOWARD CENTRAL AREAS INCLUDING THE GREATER TUCSON
AREA. THE BEST ORGANIZED AREAS SHOULD BE EAST OF TUCSON HOWEVER.

BY LATE TUESDAY THE LOW SHOULD START TO SHEAR AND LIFT INTO THE
FRONT OF KICKER SYSTEM PUSHING THROUGH THE REGION NORTH OF US...WITH
A WEAK TROUGH INFLECTION DEVELOPING THROUGH NEW MEXICO BY EARLY
WEDNESDAY.

OUR ATTENTION THEN SHIFTS TO A DEVELOPING RIDGE FOR THE SECOND HALF
OF THE WEEK. MEDIUM RANGE RESOLUTIONS CLEARLY AND REASONABLY DEVELOP
AN UNSEASONABLY STRONG RIDGE BUILDING THROUGH ARIZONA THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY WITH THE RIDGE AXIS DIRECTLY OVERHEAD OF SOUTHEAST ARIZONA.
SLIGHTLY DEEPER AND SLOWER TIMING OF ECMWF PREFERRED DUE TO
CONTINUED FAVORABLE ENSEMBLE MEAN TRENDS FOR THE INITIAL RIDGE
DEVELOPMENT THURSDAY AND NORMALIZED STANDARD DEVIATION TRENDS OVER
THE PAST 30 DAYS (HOWEVER IT SHOULD BE NOTED THAT ENSEMBLE TRENDS
ARE LESS FAVORABLE FOR THE POSITION OF THE DEVELOPING TROUGH THROUGH
THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST). WITH THIS IN MIND...HEIGHT AND THICKNESS
VALUES CONTINUE TO SUPPORT AFTERNOON SURFACE HIGHS NEAR RECORD
LEVELS AS EARLY AS THURSDAY WITH FRIDAY MAXING OUT 850-700MB
THICKNESS VALUES AROUND 165.6DAM. THIS WOULD SUPPORT A 93 TO 95 AT
TIA. IF WE WERE TO MANAGE A 95 FRIDAY (THE 24TH) IT WOULD BE THE
THIRD LATEST 95 DEGREE DATE EVER FOR TUCSON...WITH THE LATEST EVER
OCCURRING ON THE 26TH IN 2001 AND 1934.

A HIGHLY AMPLIFIED PATTERN DEVELOPING WHICH WILL TEND TO SLOW THINGS
DOWN...HOWEVER THE MID LEVEL REFLECTION OF THE RIDGE WILL STILL
PROBABLY SHIFT INTO NEW MEXICO BY LATE SATURDAY. THICKNESS VALUES
WILL STILL BE THERE FOR SE AZ FOR NEAR RECORD HIGHS SATURDAY...BUT
STARTING TO LOSE MID LEVEL HEIGHT SUPPORT WITH TRENDS STARTING
DOWN...SO PROBABLY DOWN A DEGREE OR TWO FROM FRIDAY.

MODEST CAA BEHIND A DRY TROUGH (FOR OUR LATITUDE) SUNDAY AND MONDAY
AS AFTERNOON HIGHS DROP BACK TOWARD CLIMO.

&&

.AVIATION...VALID THRU 21/09Z.
THE WEAK MID LEVEL LOW JUST SOUTH OF THE BORDER WILL STILL HAVE
ENOUGH MOISTURE TO WORK WITH FOR A CHANCE OF -TSRA TODAY...HOWEVER
THE BEST AREA OF COVERAGE SHOULD BE EAST OF KTUS. FEW-BKN CLOUDS
7-12KFT AGL WITH GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS OUTSIDE OF TSRA. EASTERLY
SURFACE WINDS GENERALLY LESS THAN 10KTS OUTSIDE OF GUSTY OUTFLOWS
NEAR ANY TSRA. AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR TAF AMENDMENTS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...A WEAK LOW NEAR THE AREA IN COMBINATION WITH MODEST
MOISTURE WILL RESULT IN A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
THROUGH TUESDAY...MAINLY FROM TUCSON EASTWARD. DRY CONDITIONS WILL
THEN OCCUR AREA WIDE FOR THE END OF THE WORK WEEK WITH SIGNIFICANTLY
ABOVE NORMAL HIGH TEMPERATURES. 20-FOOT WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE
DIURNAL AND LESS THAN 15 MPH THIS WEEK.  SOME GUSTY WINDS ARE
POSSIBLE NEAR ANY THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

$$

VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...YOUTUBE...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/TUCSON

MEYER/MEADOWS






000
FXUS65 KTWC 200936
AFDTWC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ
230 AM MST MON OCT 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...A SLOW MOVING WEATHER SYSTEM OVER NORTHERN MEXICO WILL
KEEP THE CHANCE OF RAIN IN THE FORECAST THROUGH TUESDAY...WITH THE
MOST FAVORABLE AREA FOR STORM DEVELOPMENT SHIFTING INTO EASTERN
AREAS. STRONG HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING DRIER CONDITIONS THE SECOND
HALF OF THE WEEK ALONG WITH MUCH WARMER TEMPERATURES. NEAR RECORD
HIGH TEMPERATURES POSSIBLE IN SOME LOCATIONS THURSDAY INTO SATURDAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...AT 2 AM THE MID LEVEL LOW CONTINUES TO TRACK ACROSS
FAR NORTHERN SONORA NEAR THE ARIZONA BORDER...JUST SOUTH OF SANTA
CRUZ COUNTY. THIS CUT-OFF HAS FILLED A LITTLE AS IT DRIFTS VERY
SLOWLY EASTWARD. A LITTLE BIT OF MID LEVEL DRYING IS STARTING TO EAT
AWAY AT SOME OF THE AVAILABLE MOISTURE...HOWEVER .75 TO .9
PRECIPITABLE WATER SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO SEE STORMS RETURN TO THE AREA
THIS AFTERNOON.

THE MOST FAVORABLE AREA OF UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE ON THE ACTIVE
EASTERN TO NORTHERN PORTION OF THE LOW WILL FURTHER EMPHASIZE
EASTERN AREAS TODAY WITH BEST STORM CHANCES EAST OF TUCSON.
HOWEVER...IT SHOULD BE NOTED THAT INSTEAD OF YESTERDAY`S SOUTHERLY
FLOW...MUCH OF THE AREA WILL BE DEVELOPING AN EASTERLY STEERING
LEVEL FLOW ON THE NORTHERN FLANK OF THE LOW. THIS WILL STEER A FEW
STORMS ONCE AGAIN TOWARD CENTRAL AREAS INCLUDING THE GREATER TUCSON
AREA. THE BEST ORGANIZED AREAS SHOULD BE EAST OF TUCSON HOWEVER.

BY LATE TUESDAY THE LOW SHOULD START TO SHEAR AND LIFT INTO THE
FRONT OF KICKER SYSTEM PUSHING THROUGH THE REGION NORTH OF US...WITH
A WEAK TROUGH INFLECTION DEVELOPING THROUGH NEW MEXICO BY EARLY
WEDNESDAY.

OUR ATTENTION THEN SHIFTS TO A DEVELOPING RIDGE FOR THE SECOND HALF
OF THE WEEK. MEDIUM RANGE RESOLUTIONS CLEARLY AND REASONABLY DEVELOP
AN UNSEASONABLY STRONG RIDGE BUILDING THROUGH ARIZONA THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY WITH THE RIDGE AXIS DIRECTLY OVERHEAD OF SOUTHEAST ARIZONA.
SLIGHTLY DEEPER AND SLOWER TIMING OF ECMWF PREFERRED DUE TO
CONTINUED FAVORABLE ENSEMBLE MEAN TRENDS FOR THE INITIAL RIDGE
DEVELOPMENT THURSDAY AND NORMALIZED STANDARD DEVIATION TRENDS OVER
THE PAST 30 DAYS (HOWEVER IT SHOULD BE NOTED THAT ENSEMBLE TRENDS
ARE LESS FAVORABLE FOR THE POSITION OF THE DEVELOPING TROUGH THROUGH
THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST). WITH THIS IN MIND...HEIGHT AND THICKNESS
VALUES CONTINUE TO SUPPORT AFTERNOON SURFACE HIGHS NEAR RECORD
LEVELS AS EARLY AS THURSDAY WITH FRIDAY MAXING OUT 850-700MB
THICKNESS VALUES AROUND 165.6DAM. THIS WOULD SUPPORT A 93 TO 95 AT
TIA. IF WE WERE TO MANAGE A 95 FRIDAY (THE 24TH) IT WOULD BE THE
THIRD LATEST 95 DEGREE DATE EVER FOR TUCSON...WITH THE LATEST EVER
OCCURRING ON THE 26TH IN 2001 AND 1934.

A HIGHLY AMPLIFIED PATTERN DEVELOPING WHICH WILL TEND TO SLOW THINGS
DOWN...HOWEVER THE MID LEVEL REFLECTION OF THE RIDGE WILL STILL
PROBABLY SHIFT INTO NEW MEXICO BY LATE SATURDAY. THICKNESS VALUES
WILL STILL BE THERE FOR SE AZ FOR NEAR RECORD HIGHS SATURDAY...BUT
STARTING TO LOSE MID LEVEL HEIGHT SUPPORT WITH TRENDS STARTING
DOWN...SO PROBABLY DOWN A DEGREE OR TWO FROM FRIDAY.

MODEST CAA BEHIND A DRY TROUGH (FOR OUR LATITUDE) SUNDAY AND MONDAY
AS AFTERNOON HIGHS DROP BACK TOWARD CLIMO.

&&

.AVIATION...VALID THRU 21/09Z.
THE WEAK MID LEVEL LOW JUST SOUTH OF THE BORDER WILL STILL HAVE
ENOUGH MOISTURE TO WORK WITH FOR A CHANCE OF -TSRA TODAY...HOWEVER
THE BEST AREA OF COVERAGE SHOULD BE EAST OF KTUS. FEW-BKN CLOUDS
7-12KFT AGL WITH GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS OUTSIDE OF TSRA. EASTERLY
SURFACE WINDS GENERALLY LESS THAN 10KTS OUTSIDE OF GUSTY OUTFLOWS
NEAR ANY TSRA. AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR TAF AMENDMENTS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...A WEAK LOW NEAR THE AREA IN COMBINATION WITH MODEST
MOISTURE WILL RESULT IN A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
THROUGH TUESDAY...MAINLY FROM TUCSON EASTWARD. DRY CONDITIONS WILL
THEN OCCUR AREA WIDE FOR THE END OF THE WORK WEEK WITH SIGNIFICANTLY
ABOVE NORMAL HIGH TEMPERATURES. 20-FOOT WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE
DIURNAL AND LESS THAN 15 MPH THIS WEEK.  SOME GUSTY WINDS ARE
POSSIBLE NEAR ANY THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

$$

VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...YOUTUBE...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/TUCSON

MEYER/MEADOWS






000
FXUS65 KTWC 200936
AFDTWC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ
230 AM MST MON OCT 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...A SLOW MOVING WEATHER SYSTEM OVER NORTHERN MEXICO WILL
KEEP THE CHANCE OF RAIN IN THE FORECAST THROUGH TUESDAY...WITH THE
MOST FAVORABLE AREA FOR STORM DEVELOPMENT SHIFTING INTO EASTERN
AREAS. STRONG HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING DRIER CONDITIONS THE SECOND
HALF OF THE WEEK ALONG WITH MUCH WARMER TEMPERATURES. NEAR RECORD
HIGH TEMPERATURES POSSIBLE IN SOME LOCATIONS THURSDAY INTO SATURDAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...AT 2 AM THE MID LEVEL LOW CONTINUES TO TRACK ACROSS
FAR NORTHERN SONORA NEAR THE ARIZONA BORDER...JUST SOUTH OF SANTA
CRUZ COUNTY. THIS CUT-OFF HAS FILLED A LITTLE AS IT DRIFTS VERY
SLOWLY EASTWARD. A LITTLE BIT OF MID LEVEL DRYING IS STARTING TO EAT
AWAY AT SOME OF THE AVAILABLE MOISTURE...HOWEVER .75 TO .9
PRECIPITABLE WATER SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO SEE STORMS RETURN TO THE AREA
THIS AFTERNOON.

THE MOST FAVORABLE AREA OF UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE ON THE ACTIVE
EASTERN TO NORTHERN PORTION OF THE LOW WILL FURTHER EMPHASIZE
EASTERN AREAS TODAY WITH BEST STORM CHANCES EAST OF TUCSON.
HOWEVER...IT SHOULD BE NOTED THAT INSTEAD OF YESTERDAY`S SOUTHERLY
FLOW...MUCH OF THE AREA WILL BE DEVELOPING AN EASTERLY STEERING
LEVEL FLOW ON THE NORTHERN FLANK OF THE LOW. THIS WILL STEER A FEW
STORMS ONCE AGAIN TOWARD CENTRAL AREAS INCLUDING THE GREATER TUCSON
AREA. THE BEST ORGANIZED AREAS SHOULD BE EAST OF TUCSON HOWEVER.

BY LATE TUESDAY THE LOW SHOULD START TO SHEAR AND LIFT INTO THE
FRONT OF KICKER SYSTEM PUSHING THROUGH THE REGION NORTH OF US...WITH
A WEAK TROUGH INFLECTION DEVELOPING THROUGH NEW MEXICO BY EARLY
WEDNESDAY.

OUR ATTENTION THEN SHIFTS TO A DEVELOPING RIDGE FOR THE SECOND HALF
OF THE WEEK. MEDIUM RANGE RESOLUTIONS CLEARLY AND REASONABLY DEVELOP
AN UNSEASONABLY STRONG RIDGE BUILDING THROUGH ARIZONA THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY WITH THE RIDGE AXIS DIRECTLY OVERHEAD OF SOUTHEAST ARIZONA.
SLIGHTLY DEEPER AND SLOWER TIMING OF ECMWF PREFERRED DUE TO
CONTINUED FAVORABLE ENSEMBLE MEAN TRENDS FOR THE INITIAL RIDGE
DEVELOPMENT THURSDAY AND NORMALIZED STANDARD DEVIATION TRENDS OVER
THE PAST 30 DAYS (HOWEVER IT SHOULD BE NOTED THAT ENSEMBLE TRENDS
ARE LESS FAVORABLE FOR THE POSITION OF THE DEVELOPING TROUGH THROUGH
THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST). WITH THIS IN MIND...HEIGHT AND THICKNESS
VALUES CONTINUE TO SUPPORT AFTERNOON SURFACE HIGHS NEAR RECORD
LEVELS AS EARLY AS THURSDAY WITH FRIDAY MAXING OUT 850-700MB
THICKNESS VALUES AROUND 165.6DAM. THIS WOULD SUPPORT A 93 TO 95 AT
TIA. IF WE WERE TO MANAGE A 95 FRIDAY (THE 24TH) IT WOULD BE THE
THIRD LATEST 95 DEGREE DATE EVER FOR TUCSON...WITH THE LATEST EVER
OCCURRING ON THE 26TH IN 2001 AND 1934.

A HIGHLY AMPLIFIED PATTERN DEVELOPING WHICH WILL TEND TO SLOW THINGS
DOWN...HOWEVER THE MID LEVEL REFLECTION OF THE RIDGE WILL STILL
PROBABLY SHIFT INTO NEW MEXICO BY LATE SATURDAY. THICKNESS VALUES
WILL STILL BE THERE FOR SE AZ FOR NEAR RECORD HIGHS SATURDAY...BUT
STARTING TO LOSE MID LEVEL HEIGHT SUPPORT WITH TRENDS STARTING
DOWN...SO PROBABLY DOWN A DEGREE OR TWO FROM FRIDAY.

MODEST CAA BEHIND A DRY TROUGH (FOR OUR LATITUDE) SUNDAY AND MONDAY
AS AFTERNOON HIGHS DROP BACK TOWARD CLIMO.

&&

.AVIATION...VALID THRU 21/09Z.
THE WEAK MID LEVEL LOW JUST SOUTH OF THE BORDER WILL STILL HAVE
ENOUGH MOISTURE TO WORK WITH FOR A CHANCE OF -TSRA TODAY...HOWEVER
THE BEST AREA OF COVERAGE SHOULD BE EAST OF KTUS. FEW-BKN CLOUDS
7-12KFT AGL WITH GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS OUTSIDE OF TSRA. EASTERLY
SURFACE WINDS GENERALLY LESS THAN 10KTS OUTSIDE OF GUSTY OUTFLOWS
NEAR ANY TSRA. AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR TAF AMENDMENTS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...A WEAK LOW NEAR THE AREA IN COMBINATION WITH MODEST
MOISTURE WILL RESULT IN A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
THROUGH TUESDAY...MAINLY FROM TUCSON EASTWARD. DRY CONDITIONS WILL
THEN OCCUR AREA WIDE FOR THE END OF THE WORK WEEK WITH SIGNIFICANTLY
ABOVE NORMAL HIGH TEMPERATURES. 20-FOOT WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE
DIURNAL AND LESS THAN 15 MPH THIS WEEK.  SOME GUSTY WINDS ARE
POSSIBLE NEAR ANY THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

$$

VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...YOUTUBE...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/TUCSON

MEYER/MEADOWS






000
FXUS65 KPSR 200935
AFDPSR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PHOENIX AZ
235 AM MST MON OCT 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
GRADUAL DRYING WILL OCCUR THIS WEEK...BUT THERE WILL AGAIN BE
SLIGHT CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS
NORTH AND EAST OF PHOENIX DURING THE DAYTIME HOURS TODAY AND
TUESDAY. SOME WARMING IS EXPECTED BY MID WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND WITH
TEMPERATURES SEVERAL DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL AS HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES
OVERHEAD.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
AFTER A BUSY EVENING YESTERDAY WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS REACHING INTO THE LOWER DESERTS...CONDITIONS ACROSS
THE REGION HAVE QUIETED DOWN. SKIES HAVE CLEARED FOR THE MOST PART
WITH THE CLOSED UPPER LOW CURRENTLY CENTERED OVER NORTHERN SONORA
MEXICO SLOWLY MAKING EASTWARD PROGRESS. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE REMAINS
FAIRLY HIGH AFTER AN UPTICK YESTERDAY AND WILL AGAIN ALLOW FOR MORE
CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING...THOUGH FURTHER TO THE EAST THAN ON SUNDAY. THE UPPER LOW
IS FORECAST TO BE JUST TO THE SOUTHEAST OF TUCSON BY LATE THIS
AFTERNOON RESULTING IN A LESS FAVORABLE ATMOSPHERIC PROFILE FOR
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW
A SIMILAR MOISTURE PROFILE COMPARED TO YESTERDAY...BUT WARMING IN
THE MID LEVELS WILL OCCUR AS THE UPPER LOW MOVES EASTWARD. THIS
WARMING WILL LEAD TO MORE STABLE CONDITIONS FOR TODAY...ESPECIALLY
ACROSS THE LOWER DESERTS. WITH LESS INSTABILITY THIS
AFTERNOON...FEEL STORMS WILL BE MORE ISOLATED IN NATURE...LESS
ORGANIZED...AND THUS PRODUCE LESS OUTFLOWS. THE STRONG OUTFLOWS ON
SUNDAY IS WHAT ALLOWED FOR STORMS TO PROPAGATE WESTWARD INTO THE
LOWER DESERTS...SO A REPEAT OF SUNDAY IS NOT ANTICIPATED.

LINGERING MOISTURE ON TUESDAY SHOULD STILL ALLOW FOR A FEW ISOLATED
SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS EASTERN GILA COUNTY...BUT THE
GRADUAL DRYING WILL EVENTUALLY TAKE AWAY ANY THREAT OF AFTERNOON
CONVECTION BY THURSDAY. THE DESERT SOUTHWEST WILL STAY WELL SOUTH OF
THE MAIN PACIFIC JET STREAM THIS WEEK WHILE A STRONG PACIFIC RIDGE
EVENTUALLY SHIFTS EASTWARD OVER THE REGION BY THURSDAY INTO THE
WEEKEND. 500MB HEIGHTS WILL BUILD TO NEAR 588DM LATE THIS WEEK
PROVIDING FOR A WARMING TREND DURING THE PERIOD. FORECAST HIGHS WILL
LIKELY MOVE INTO THE MIDDLE 90S ACROSS THE LOWER DESERTS OF
SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA AND SOUTHWEST ARIZONA FOR THURSDAY THROUGH
SATURDAY. A SLIGHT COOLDOWN IS PROBABLE STARTING EITHER SUNDAY OR
NEXT MONDAY AS THE RIDGE IS SHOWN TO BREAK DOWN AND BROAD SCALE
TROUGHING SHIFTS SOUTHWARD INTO THE SOUTHWESTERN UNITED STATES. THE
DRY WEATHER STARTING BY LATE THIS WEEK IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...
SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA INCLUDING KPHX...KIWA AND KSDL...
CLEARING TREND EXPECTED THROUGH 12Z AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE
AREA. LIGHT EASTERLY FLOW ANTICIPATED FOR MOST OF MONDAY...WITH A
BRIEF SWITCH TO WESTERLY DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON.

SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA AND SOUTHWEST ARIZONA INCLUDING KIPL AND KBLH...
CLEAR SKIES WITH LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS EXPECTED THROUGH THE
PERIOD.

AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDED TAFS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...
A GRADUAL DRYING TREND IS EXPECTED THE LATER HALF OF THE WEEK...WITH
MINIMUM HUMIDITY LEVELS GRADUALLY TRENDING DOWN INTO THE TEENS BY
THE WEEKEND. WINDS WILL BE GENERALLY LIGHT AND FOLLOW TYPICAL
DIURNAL PATTERNS EACH DAY.

&&

.PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

AZ...NONE.

CA...NONE.

&&

$$

VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/PHOENIX

DISCUSSION...KUHLMAN
AVIATION...HIRSCH
FIRE WEATHER...MEYERS









000
FXUS65 KPSR 200935
AFDPSR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PHOENIX AZ
235 AM MST MON OCT 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
GRADUAL DRYING WILL OCCUR THIS WEEK...BUT THERE WILL AGAIN BE
SLIGHT CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS
NORTH AND EAST OF PHOENIX DURING THE DAYTIME HOURS TODAY AND
TUESDAY. SOME WARMING IS EXPECTED BY MID WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND WITH
TEMPERATURES SEVERAL DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL AS HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES
OVERHEAD.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
AFTER A BUSY EVENING YESTERDAY WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS REACHING INTO THE LOWER DESERTS...CONDITIONS ACROSS
THE REGION HAVE QUIETED DOWN. SKIES HAVE CLEARED FOR THE MOST PART
WITH THE CLOSED UPPER LOW CURRENTLY CENTERED OVER NORTHERN SONORA
MEXICO SLOWLY MAKING EASTWARD PROGRESS. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE REMAINS
FAIRLY HIGH AFTER AN UPTICK YESTERDAY AND WILL AGAIN ALLOW FOR MORE
CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING...THOUGH FURTHER TO THE EAST THAN ON SUNDAY. THE UPPER LOW
IS FORECAST TO BE JUST TO THE SOUTHEAST OF TUCSON BY LATE THIS
AFTERNOON RESULTING IN A LESS FAVORABLE ATMOSPHERIC PROFILE FOR
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW
A SIMILAR MOISTURE PROFILE COMPARED TO YESTERDAY...BUT WARMING IN
THE MID LEVELS WILL OCCUR AS THE UPPER LOW MOVES EASTWARD. THIS
WARMING WILL LEAD TO MORE STABLE CONDITIONS FOR TODAY...ESPECIALLY
ACROSS THE LOWER DESERTS. WITH LESS INSTABILITY THIS
AFTERNOON...FEEL STORMS WILL BE MORE ISOLATED IN NATURE...LESS
ORGANIZED...AND THUS PRODUCE LESS OUTFLOWS. THE STRONG OUTFLOWS ON
SUNDAY IS WHAT ALLOWED FOR STORMS TO PROPAGATE WESTWARD INTO THE
LOWER DESERTS...SO A REPEAT OF SUNDAY IS NOT ANTICIPATED.

LINGERING MOISTURE ON TUESDAY SHOULD STILL ALLOW FOR A FEW ISOLATED
SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS EASTERN GILA COUNTY...BUT THE
GRADUAL DRYING WILL EVENTUALLY TAKE AWAY ANY THREAT OF AFTERNOON
CONVECTION BY THURSDAY. THE DESERT SOUTHWEST WILL STAY WELL SOUTH OF
THE MAIN PACIFIC JET STREAM THIS WEEK WHILE A STRONG PACIFIC RIDGE
EVENTUALLY SHIFTS EASTWARD OVER THE REGION BY THURSDAY INTO THE
WEEKEND. 500MB HEIGHTS WILL BUILD TO NEAR 588DM LATE THIS WEEK
PROVIDING FOR A WARMING TREND DURING THE PERIOD. FORECAST HIGHS WILL
LIKELY MOVE INTO THE MIDDLE 90S ACROSS THE LOWER DESERTS OF
SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA AND SOUTHWEST ARIZONA FOR THURSDAY THROUGH
SATURDAY. A SLIGHT COOLDOWN IS PROBABLE STARTING EITHER SUNDAY OR
NEXT MONDAY AS THE RIDGE IS SHOWN TO BREAK DOWN AND BROAD SCALE
TROUGHING SHIFTS SOUTHWARD INTO THE SOUTHWESTERN UNITED STATES. THE
DRY WEATHER STARTING BY LATE THIS WEEK IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...
SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA INCLUDING KPHX...KIWA AND KSDL...
CLEARING TREND EXPECTED THROUGH 12Z AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE
AREA. LIGHT EASTERLY FLOW ANTICIPATED FOR MOST OF MONDAY...WITH A
BRIEF SWITCH TO WESTERLY DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON.

SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA AND SOUTHWEST ARIZONA INCLUDING KIPL AND KBLH...
CLEAR SKIES WITH LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS EXPECTED THROUGH THE
PERIOD.

AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDED TAFS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...
A GRADUAL DRYING TREND IS EXPECTED THE LATER HALF OF THE WEEK...WITH
MINIMUM HUMIDITY LEVELS GRADUALLY TRENDING DOWN INTO THE TEENS BY
THE WEEKEND. WINDS WILL BE GENERALLY LIGHT AND FOLLOW TYPICAL
DIURNAL PATTERNS EACH DAY.

&&

.PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

AZ...NONE.

CA...NONE.

&&

$$

VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/PHOENIX

DISCUSSION...KUHLMAN
AVIATION...HIRSCH
FIRE WEATHER...MEYERS









000
FXUS65 KPSR 200935
AFDPSR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PHOENIX AZ
235 AM MST MON OCT 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
GRADUAL DRYING WILL OCCUR THIS WEEK...BUT THERE WILL AGAIN BE
SLIGHT CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS
NORTH AND EAST OF PHOENIX DURING THE DAYTIME HOURS TODAY AND
TUESDAY. SOME WARMING IS EXPECTED BY MID WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND WITH
TEMPERATURES SEVERAL DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL AS HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES
OVERHEAD.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
AFTER A BUSY EVENING YESTERDAY WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS REACHING INTO THE LOWER DESERTS...CONDITIONS ACROSS
THE REGION HAVE QUIETED DOWN. SKIES HAVE CLEARED FOR THE MOST PART
WITH THE CLOSED UPPER LOW CURRENTLY CENTERED OVER NORTHERN SONORA
MEXICO SLOWLY MAKING EASTWARD PROGRESS. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE REMAINS
FAIRLY HIGH AFTER AN UPTICK YESTERDAY AND WILL AGAIN ALLOW FOR MORE
CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING...THOUGH FURTHER TO THE EAST THAN ON SUNDAY. THE UPPER LOW
IS FORECAST TO BE JUST TO THE SOUTHEAST OF TUCSON BY LATE THIS
AFTERNOON RESULTING IN A LESS FAVORABLE ATMOSPHERIC PROFILE FOR
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW
A SIMILAR MOISTURE PROFILE COMPARED TO YESTERDAY...BUT WARMING IN
THE MID LEVELS WILL OCCUR AS THE UPPER LOW MOVES EASTWARD. THIS
WARMING WILL LEAD TO MORE STABLE CONDITIONS FOR TODAY...ESPECIALLY
ACROSS THE LOWER DESERTS. WITH LESS INSTABILITY THIS
AFTERNOON...FEEL STORMS WILL BE MORE ISOLATED IN NATURE...LESS
ORGANIZED...AND THUS PRODUCE LESS OUTFLOWS. THE STRONG OUTFLOWS ON
SUNDAY IS WHAT ALLOWED FOR STORMS TO PROPAGATE WESTWARD INTO THE
LOWER DESERTS...SO A REPEAT OF SUNDAY IS NOT ANTICIPATED.

LINGERING MOISTURE ON TUESDAY SHOULD STILL ALLOW FOR A FEW ISOLATED
SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS EASTERN GILA COUNTY...BUT THE
GRADUAL DRYING WILL EVENTUALLY TAKE AWAY ANY THREAT OF AFTERNOON
CONVECTION BY THURSDAY. THE DESERT SOUTHWEST WILL STAY WELL SOUTH OF
THE MAIN PACIFIC JET STREAM THIS WEEK WHILE A STRONG PACIFIC RIDGE
EVENTUALLY SHIFTS EASTWARD OVER THE REGION BY THURSDAY INTO THE
WEEKEND. 500MB HEIGHTS WILL BUILD TO NEAR 588DM LATE THIS WEEK
PROVIDING FOR A WARMING TREND DURING THE PERIOD. FORECAST HIGHS WILL
LIKELY MOVE INTO THE MIDDLE 90S ACROSS THE LOWER DESERTS OF
SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA AND SOUTHWEST ARIZONA FOR THURSDAY THROUGH
SATURDAY. A SLIGHT COOLDOWN IS PROBABLE STARTING EITHER SUNDAY OR
NEXT MONDAY AS THE RIDGE IS SHOWN TO BREAK DOWN AND BROAD SCALE
TROUGHING SHIFTS SOUTHWARD INTO THE SOUTHWESTERN UNITED STATES. THE
DRY WEATHER STARTING BY LATE THIS WEEK IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...
SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA INCLUDING KPHX...KIWA AND KSDL...
CLEARING TREND EXPECTED THROUGH 12Z AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE
AREA. LIGHT EASTERLY FLOW ANTICIPATED FOR MOST OF MONDAY...WITH A
BRIEF SWITCH TO WESTERLY DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON.

SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA AND SOUTHWEST ARIZONA INCLUDING KIPL AND KBLH...
CLEAR SKIES WITH LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS EXPECTED THROUGH THE
PERIOD.

AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDED TAFS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...
A GRADUAL DRYING TREND IS EXPECTED THE LATER HALF OF THE WEEK...WITH
MINIMUM HUMIDITY LEVELS GRADUALLY TRENDING DOWN INTO THE TEENS BY
THE WEEKEND. WINDS WILL BE GENERALLY LIGHT AND FOLLOW TYPICAL
DIURNAL PATTERNS EACH DAY.

&&

.PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

AZ...NONE.

CA...NONE.

&&

$$

VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/PHOENIX

DISCUSSION...KUHLMAN
AVIATION...HIRSCH
FIRE WEATHER...MEYERS









000
FXUS65 KPSR 200935
AFDPSR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PHOENIX AZ
235 AM MST MON OCT 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
GRADUAL DRYING WILL OCCUR THIS WEEK...BUT THERE WILL AGAIN BE
SLIGHT CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS
NORTH AND EAST OF PHOENIX DURING THE DAYTIME HOURS TODAY AND
TUESDAY. SOME WARMING IS EXPECTED BY MID WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND WITH
TEMPERATURES SEVERAL DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL AS HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES
OVERHEAD.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
AFTER A BUSY EVENING YESTERDAY WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS REACHING INTO THE LOWER DESERTS...CONDITIONS ACROSS
THE REGION HAVE QUIETED DOWN. SKIES HAVE CLEARED FOR THE MOST PART
WITH THE CLOSED UPPER LOW CURRENTLY CENTERED OVER NORTHERN SONORA
MEXICO SLOWLY MAKING EASTWARD PROGRESS. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE REMAINS
FAIRLY HIGH AFTER AN UPTICK YESTERDAY AND WILL AGAIN ALLOW FOR MORE
CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING...THOUGH FURTHER TO THE EAST THAN ON SUNDAY. THE UPPER LOW
IS FORECAST TO BE JUST TO THE SOUTHEAST OF TUCSON BY LATE THIS
AFTERNOON RESULTING IN A LESS FAVORABLE ATMOSPHERIC PROFILE FOR
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW
A SIMILAR MOISTURE PROFILE COMPARED TO YESTERDAY...BUT WARMING IN
THE MID LEVELS WILL OCCUR AS THE UPPER LOW MOVES EASTWARD. THIS
WARMING WILL LEAD TO MORE STABLE CONDITIONS FOR TODAY...ESPECIALLY
ACROSS THE LOWER DESERTS. WITH LESS INSTABILITY THIS
AFTERNOON...FEEL STORMS WILL BE MORE ISOLATED IN NATURE...LESS
ORGANIZED...AND THUS PRODUCE LESS OUTFLOWS. THE STRONG OUTFLOWS ON
SUNDAY IS WHAT ALLOWED FOR STORMS TO PROPAGATE WESTWARD INTO THE
LOWER DESERTS...SO A REPEAT OF SUNDAY IS NOT ANTICIPATED.

LINGERING MOISTURE ON TUESDAY SHOULD STILL ALLOW FOR A FEW ISOLATED
SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS EASTERN GILA COUNTY...BUT THE
GRADUAL DRYING WILL EVENTUALLY TAKE AWAY ANY THREAT OF AFTERNOON
CONVECTION BY THURSDAY. THE DESERT SOUTHWEST WILL STAY WELL SOUTH OF
THE MAIN PACIFIC JET STREAM THIS WEEK WHILE A STRONG PACIFIC RIDGE
EVENTUALLY SHIFTS EASTWARD OVER THE REGION BY THURSDAY INTO THE
WEEKEND. 500MB HEIGHTS WILL BUILD TO NEAR 588DM LATE THIS WEEK
PROVIDING FOR A WARMING TREND DURING THE PERIOD. FORECAST HIGHS WILL
LIKELY MOVE INTO THE MIDDLE 90S ACROSS THE LOWER DESERTS OF
SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA AND SOUTHWEST ARIZONA FOR THURSDAY THROUGH
SATURDAY. A SLIGHT COOLDOWN IS PROBABLE STARTING EITHER SUNDAY OR
NEXT MONDAY AS THE RIDGE IS SHOWN TO BREAK DOWN AND BROAD SCALE
TROUGHING SHIFTS SOUTHWARD INTO THE SOUTHWESTERN UNITED STATES. THE
DRY WEATHER STARTING BY LATE THIS WEEK IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...
SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA INCLUDING KPHX...KIWA AND KSDL...
CLEARING TREND EXPECTED THROUGH 12Z AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE
AREA. LIGHT EASTERLY FLOW ANTICIPATED FOR MOST OF MONDAY...WITH A
BRIEF SWITCH TO WESTERLY DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON.

SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA AND SOUTHWEST ARIZONA INCLUDING KIPL AND KBLH...
CLEAR SKIES WITH LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS EXPECTED THROUGH THE
PERIOD.

AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDED TAFS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...
A GRADUAL DRYING TREND IS EXPECTED THE LATER HALF OF THE WEEK...WITH
MINIMUM HUMIDITY LEVELS GRADUALLY TRENDING DOWN INTO THE TEENS BY
THE WEEKEND. WINDS WILL BE GENERALLY LIGHT AND FOLLOW TYPICAL
DIURNAL PATTERNS EACH DAY.

&&

.PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

AZ...NONE.

CA...NONE.

&&

$$

VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/PHOENIX

DISCUSSION...KUHLMAN
AVIATION...HIRSCH
FIRE WEATHER...MEYERS









000
FXUS65 KPSR 200543
AFDPSR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PHOENIX AZ
1045 PM MST SUN OCT 19 2014

.UPDATE...UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL LINGER THROUGH MONDAY ACROSS THE
MOUNTAINS NORTH AND EAST OF PHOENIX. ANOTHER TROUGH WILL MOVE
THROUGH THE AREA ON TUESDAY HOWEVER ONLY A FEW CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED
WITH THIS SYSTEM. CONDITIONS WILL WARM UP BY MID WEEK INTO NEXT
WEEKEND AS HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES OVERHEAD.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING WAS MORE
REMINISCENT OF THE MONSOON...THOUGH THE CHARACTER OF THE STORMS WAS
DEFINITIVELY FALL-LIKE WITH 500 MB TEMPERATURES AS COLD AS -15C.
CONVECTION INITIALLY DEVELOPED ACROSS EASTERN PINAL AND SOUTHERN
GILA COUNTIES THIS AFTERNOON...PRODUCING SMALL HAIL AND AREAS OF
HEAVY RAIN AND MINOR FLOODING. AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY PROPAGATING FROM
SE AZ THEN COLLIDED WITH A GUST FRONT DROPPING SOUTHWESTWARD FROM
NORTHEASTERN MARICOPA COUNTY. CONSEQUENTLY...STRONG LOW-LEVEL
CONVERGENCE PROVIDED THE NECESSARY ASCENT FOR STORMS TO DEVELOP
ACROSS THE PHOENIX AREA...DESPITE LIMITED INSTABILITY AND INCREASING
INHIBITION. RAIN TOTALS WERE GENERALLY AROUND A TENTH OF AN
INCH...EXCEPT IN SCOTTSDALE WHERE SOME AREAS RECEIVED OVER A HALF OF
AN INCH.

IT IS INTERESTING TO NOTE THAT CLOUD TOP TEMPERATURES ON
IR SATELLITE ONLY REACHED -29C...WHICH CORRESPONDS TO ROUGHLY 350 MB
OR 25-30K FEET ON THE FGZ/TWC SOUNDINGS AND RIGHT AT THE BASE OF THE
UPPER-LEVEL SUBSIDENCE INVERSION. IT IS THIS INVERSION ASSOCIATED
WITH A BUILDING UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE THAT PREVENTED STORMS FROM
REACHING SEVERE THRESHOLDS.

REST OF TONIGHT...MID-TROPOSPHERIC LOW ACROSS NORTHERN SONORA WILL
CONTINUE TO MIGRATE EASTWARD. GLOBAL AND CONVECTIVE-ALLOWING MODELS
INDICATE THAT ISOLATED CONVECTION ACROSS THE LOWER DESERTS WILL
DISSIPATE AS WELL. MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO THE FORECAST WILL BE NEEDED
TO ACCOUNT FOR RECENT DOWNWARD TRENDS.

&&

.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
WEAK CYCLONIC FLOW WILL REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST ON
MONDAY...BUT WILL BE DISPLACED WELL TO THE EAST COMPARED TO TODAY.
ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE HIGHER
TERRAIN BUT THE VAST MAJORITY OF THE ACTIVITY SHOULD BE INTO NEW
MEXICO BY MONDAY AFTERNOON. ALL OF THE HI-RES MODELS AS WELL AS THE
USUALLY WET SREF GUIDANCE AGREES WITH THIS ASSESSMENT AND ASIDE FROM
A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS AROUND GLOBE/HILLTOP/ROOSEVELT...IT SHOULD BE
RELATIVELY QUIET. STRONG SUBSIDENCE IN THE 500-300MB LAYER SHOULD
ALSO LIMIT STORM COVERAGE/INTENSITY.

ON TO TUESDAY AS A TROUGH PRESENTLY LOCATED OVER THE PAC NW MOVES
INLAND THROUGH UTAH. A FEW DAYS AGO THIS TROUGH WAS EXPECTED TO MOVE
THROUGH PORTIONS OF ARIZONA BUT THE NORTHWARD TREND REMAINS ON
TRACK. VERY SLIM CHANCES OF SHOWERS WITH THIS SYSTEM EAST OF PHOENIX
AND VIRTUALLY NO CHANCE WHATSOEVER ACROSS THE LOWER DESERTS. SHOULD
ONLY SEE A BRIEF INCREASE IN CLOUDS DURING THE DAY ON TUESDAY
FOLLOWED BY CLEARING TUESDAY NIGHT.

LOOKING AHEAD FROM WEDNESDAY INTO THE WEEKEND...RIDGING WILL SET UP
YIELDING DRY WEATHER ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA.
MEANWHILE...TEMPERATURES WILL BEGIN AN UPWARD CLIMB INTO THE MID 90S
WHICH IS JUST ABOUT 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL FOR LATE OCTOBER. THE
RIDGE WILL BREAK DOWN BY SATURDAY/SUNDAY YIELDING SLIGHTLY COOLER
TEMPERATURES BUT STILL WARMER THAN NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION...
SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA INCLUDING KPHX...KIWA AND KSDL...
CLEARING TREND EXPECTED THROUGH 12Z AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE
AREA. LIGHT EASTERLY FLOW ANTICIPATED FOR MOST OF MONDAY...WITH A
BRIEF SWITCH TO WESTERLY DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON.

SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA AND SOUTHWEST ARIZONA INCLUDING KIPL AND KBLH...
CLEAR SKIES WITH LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS EXPECTED THROUGH THE
PERIOD.

AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDED TAFS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...
A GRADUAL DRYING TREND IS EXPECTED THE LATER HALF OF THE WEEK...WITH
MINIMUM HUMIDITY LEVELS GRADUALLY TRENDING DOWN INTO THE TEENS BY
THE WEEKEND. WINDS WILL BE GENERALLY LIGHT AND FOLLOW TYPICAL
DIURNAL PATTERNS EACH DAY.

&&

.PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

AZ...NONE.

CA...NONE.

&&

$$

VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/PHOENIX

DISCUSSION...HIRSCH
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...LEINS
AVIATION...HIRSCH
FIRE WEATHER...MEYERS






000
FXUS65 KPSR 200543
AFDPSR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PHOENIX AZ
1045 PM MST SUN OCT 19 2014

.UPDATE...UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL LINGER THROUGH MONDAY ACROSS THE
MOUNTAINS NORTH AND EAST OF PHOENIX. ANOTHER TROUGH WILL MOVE
THROUGH THE AREA ON TUESDAY HOWEVER ONLY A FEW CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED
WITH THIS SYSTEM. CONDITIONS WILL WARM UP BY MID WEEK INTO NEXT
WEEKEND AS HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES OVERHEAD.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING WAS MORE
REMINISCENT OF THE MONSOON...THOUGH THE CHARACTER OF THE STORMS WAS
DEFINITIVELY FALL-LIKE WITH 500 MB TEMPERATURES AS COLD AS -15C.
CONVECTION INITIALLY DEVELOPED ACROSS EASTERN PINAL AND SOUTHERN
GILA COUNTIES THIS AFTERNOON...PRODUCING SMALL HAIL AND AREAS OF
HEAVY RAIN AND MINOR FLOODING. AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY PROPAGATING FROM
SE AZ THEN COLLIDED WITH A GUST FRONT DROPPING SOUTHWESTWARD FROM
NORTHEASTERN MARICOPA COUNTY. CONSEQUENTLY...STRONG LOW-LEVEL
CONVERGENCE PROVIDED THE NECESSARY ASCENT FOR STORMS TO DEVELOP
ACROSS THE PHOENIX AREA...DESPITE LIMITED INSTABILITY AND INCREASING
INHIBITION. RAIN TOTALS WERE GENERALLY AROUND A TENTH OF AN
INCH...EXCEPT IN SCOTTSDALE WHERE SOME AREAS RECEIVED OVER A HALF OF
AN INCH.

IT IS INTERESTING TO NOTE THAT CLOUD TOP TEMPERATURES ON
IR SATELLITE ONLY REACHED -29C...WHICH CORRESPONDS TO ROUGHLY 350 MB
OR 25-30K FEET ON THE FGZ/TWC SOUNDINGS AND RIGHT AT THE BASE OF THE
UPPER-LEVEL SUBSIDENCE INVERSION. IT IS THIS INVERSION ASSOCIATED
WITH A BUILDING UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE THAT PREVENTED STORMS FROM
REACHING SEVERE THRESHOLDS.

REST OF TONIGHT...MID-TROPOSPHERIC LOW ACROSS NORTHERN SONORA WILL
CONTINUE TO MIGRATE EASTWARD. GLOBAL AND CONVECTIVE-ALLOWING MODELS
INDICATE THAT ISOLATED CONVECTION ACROSS THE LOWER DESERTS WILL
DISSIPATE AS WELL. MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO THE FORECAST WILL BE NEEDED
TO ACCOUNT FOR RECENT DOWNWARD TRENDS.

&&

.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
WEAK CYCLONIC FLOW WILL REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST ON
MONDAY...BUT WILL BE DISPLACED WELL TO THE EAST COMPARED TO TODAY.
ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE HIGHER
TERRAIN BUT THE VAST MAJORITY OF THE ACTIVITY SHOULD BE INTO NEW
MEXICO BY MONDAY AFTERNOON. ALL OF THE HI-RES MODELS AS WELL AS THE
USUALLY WET SREF GUIDANCE AGREES WITH THIS ASSESSMENT AND ASIDE FROM
A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS AROUND GLOBE/HILLTOP/ROOSEVELT...IT SHOULD BE
RELATIVELY QUIET. STRONG SUBSIDENCE IN THE 500-300MB LAYER SHOULD
ALSO LIMIT STORM COVERAGE/INTENSITY.

ON TO TUESDAY AS A TROUGH PRESENTLY LOCATED OVER THE PAC NW MOVES
INLAND THROUGH UTAH. A FEW DAYS AGO THIS TROUGH WAS EXPECTED TO MOVE
THROUGH PORTIONS OF ARIZONA BUT THE NORTHWARD TREND REMAINS ON
TRACK. VERY SLIM CHANCES OF SHOWERS WITH THIS SYSTEM EAST OF PHOENIX
AND VIRTUALLY NO CHANCE WHATSOEVER ACROSS THE LOWER DESERTS. SHOULD
ONLY SEE A BRIEF INCREASE IN CLOUDS DURING THE DAY ON TUESDAY
FOLLOWED BY CLEARING TUESDAY NIGHT.

LOOKING AHEAD FROM WEDNESDAY INTO THE WEEKEND...RIDGING WILL SET UP
YIELDING DRY WEATHER ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA.
MEANWHILE...TEMPERATURES WILL BEGIN AN UPWARD CLIMB INTO THE MID 90S
WHICH IS JUST ABOUT 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL FOR LATE OCTOBER. THE
RIDGE WILL BREAK DOWN BY SATURDAY/SUNDAY YIELDING SLIGHTLY COOLER
TEMPERATURES BUT STILL WARMER THAN NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION...
SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA INCLUDING KPHX...KIWA AND KSDL...
CLEARING TREND EXPECTED THROUGH 12Z AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE
AREA. LIGHT EASTERLY FLOW ANTICIPATED FOR MOST OF MONDAY...WITH A
BRIEF SWITCH TO WESTERLY DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON.

SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA AND SOUTHWEST ARIZONA INCLUDING KIPL AND KBLH...
CLEAR SKIES WITH LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS EXPECTED THROUGH THE
PERIOD.

AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDED TAFS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...
A GRADUAL DRYING TREND IS EXPECTED THE LATER HALF OF THE WEEK...WITH
MINIMUM HUMIDITY LEVELS GRADUALLY TRENDING DOWN INTO THE TEENS BY
THE WEEKEND. WINDS WILL BE GENERALLY LIGHT AND FOLLOW TYPICAL
DIURNAL PATTERNS EACH DAY.

&&

.PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

AZ...NONE.

CA...NONE.

&&

$$

VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/PHOENIX

DISCUSSION...HIRSCH
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...LEINS
AVIATION...HIRSCH
FIRE WEATHER...MEYERS





000
FXUS65 KTWC 200433
AFDTWC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ
930 PM MST SUN OCT 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...A SLOW MOVING WEATHER SYSTEM OVER NORTHERN MEXICO WILL
KEEP THE CHANCE OF RAIN IN THE FORECAST THROUGH WEDNESDAY. STRONG
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING DRIER CONDITIONS THE SECOND HALF OF THE
WEEK ALONG WITH MUCH WARMER TEMPERATURES.

&&

.DISCUSSION...RATHER BUSY LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING ACROSS SE AZ
WITH SCATTERED TO WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS. HAD
ISOLATED HEAVY RAINERS...SOME THAT WERE HAILERS AND THOSE THAT
PRODUCED STRONG OUTFLOWS THAT DEVELOPED AREAS OF BLOWING DUST
ESPECIALLY NW OF TUCSON UP TO CASA GRANDE. AT THIS TIME THE RADAR
WAS SHOWING ISOLATED ACTIVITY OVER WRN PIMA COUNTY AND ALONG/NEAR
THE AZ/NM BORDER. THE EASTERN AREAS WILL SEE A CHANCE OF STORMS
DEVELOPING OVERNIGHT. ALL OF THE ACTIVITY TODAY WAS ASSOCIATED WITH
AN UPPER LOW THAT WAS OVER NWRN SONORA MEXICO. THIS FEATURE WILL
SLOWLY MOVE E ACROSS NRN SONORA MEXICO OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
COMBINED WITH MOISTURE IN PLACE AND DAYTIME HEATING...EXPECT ANOTHER
ROUND OF AFTERNOON STORMS MONDAY...MAINLY FROM TUCSON EAST. MADE
SOME TWEAKS TO THE TONIGHT PART OF THE FORECAST AND ALSO FOR MONDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...VALID THRU 21/00Z.
FEW-BKN CLOUDS 8-12KFT AGL. ISOLD -SHRA/TS. SFC WIND GENERALLY LESS
THAN 10 KTS. AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR TAF AMENDMENTS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE ACROSS THE AREA IN
COMBINATION WITH MODEST MOISTURE WILL RESULT IN A CHANCE OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH TUESDAY...MAINLY FROM TUCSON EASTWARD. BY
WEDNESDAY...REMAINING MOISTURE ALONG WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS
WILL BE LIMITED TO JUST THE WHITE MOUNTAINS. DRY CONDITIONS WILL
THEN OCCUR AREA WIDE FOR THE END OF THE WORK WEEK WITH SIGNIFICANTLY
ABOVE NORMAL HIGH TEMPERATURES. 20-FOOT WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE
DIURNAL AND LESS THAN 15 MPH THIS WEEK.  SOME GUSTY WINDS ARE
POSSIBLE NEAR ANY THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

$$

VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...YOUTUBE...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/TUCSON






000
FXUS65 KTWC 200433
AFDTWC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ
930 PM MST SUN OCT 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...A SLOW MOVING WEATHER SYSTEM OVER NORTHERN MEXICO WILL
KEEP THE CHANCE OF RAIN IN THE FORECAST THROUGH WEDNESDAY. STRONG
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING DRIER CONDITIONS THE SECOND HALF OF THE
WEEK ALONG WITH MUCH WARMER TEMPERATURES.

&&

.DISCUSSION...RATHER BUSY LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING ACROSS SE AZ
WITH SCATTERED TO WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS. HAD
ISOLATED HEAVY RAINERS...SOME THAT WERE HAILERS AND THOSE THAT
PRODUCED STRONG OUTFLOWS THAT DEVELOPED AREAS OF BLOWING DUST
ESPECIALLY NW OF TUCSON UP TO CASA GRANDE. AT THIS TIME THE RADAR
WAS SHOWING ISOLATED ACTIVITY OVER WRN PIMA COUNTY AND ALONG/NEAR
THE AZ/NM BORDER. THE EASTERN AREAS WILL SEE A CHANCE OF STORMS
DEVELOPING OVERNIGHT. ALL OF THE ACTIVITY TODAY WAS ASSOCIATED WITH
AN UPPER LOW THAT WAS OVER NWRN SONORA MEXICO. THIS FEATURE WILL
SLOWLY MOVE E ACROSS NRN SONORA MEXICO OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
COMBINED WITH MOISTURE IN PLACE AND DAYTIME HEATING...EXPECT ANOTHER
ROUND OF AFTERNOON STORMS MONDAY...MAINLY FROM TUCSON EAST. MADE
SOME TWEAKS TO THE TONIGHT PART OF THE FORECAST AND ALSO FOR MONDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...VALID THRU 21/00Z.
FEW-BKN CLOUDS 8-12KFT AGL. ISOLD -SHRA/TS. SFC WIND GENERALLY LESS
THAN 10 KTS. AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR TAF AMENDMENTS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE ACROSS THE AREA IN
COMBINATION WITH MODEST MOISTURE WILL RESULT IN A CHANCE OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH TUESDAY...MAINLY FROM TUCSON EASTWARD. BY
WEDNESDAY...REMAINING MOISTURE ALONG WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS
WILL BE LIMITED TO JUST THE WHITE MOUNTAINS. DRY CONDITIONS WILL
THEN OCCUR AREA WIDE FOR THE END OF THE WORK WEEK WITH SIGNIFICANTLY
ABOVE NORMAL HIGH TEMPERATURES. 20-FOOT WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE
DIURNAL AND LESS THAN 15 MPH THIS WEEK.  SOME GUSTY WINDS ARE
POSSIBLE NEAR ANY THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

$$

VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...YOUTUBE...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/TUCSON







000
FXUS65 KPSR 200417
AFDPSR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PHOENIX AZ
920 PM MST SUN OCT 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL LINGER THROUGH MONDAY ACROSS THE
MOUNTAINS NORTH AND EAST OF PHOENIX. ANOTHER TROUGH WILL MOVE
THROUGH THE AREA ON TUESDAY HOWEVER ONLY A FEW CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED
WITH THIS SYSTEM. CONDITIONS WILL WARM UP BY MID WEEK INTO NEXT
WEEKEND AS HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES OVERHEAD.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING WAS MORE
REMINISCENT OF THE MONSOON...THOUGH THE CHARACTER OF THE STORMS WAS
DEFINITIVELY FALL-LIKE WITH 500 MB TEMPERATURES AS COLD AS -15C.
CONVECTION INITIALLY DEVELOPED ACROSS EASTERN PINAL AND SOUTHERN
GILA COUNTIES THIS AFTERNOON...PRODUCING SMALL HAIL AND AREAS OF
HEAVY RAIN AND MINOR FLOODING. AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY PROPAGATING FROM
SE AZ THEN COLLIDED WITH A GUST FRONT DROPPING SOUTHWESTWARD FROM
NORTHEASTERN MARICOPA COUNTY. CONSEQUENTLY...STRONG LOW-LEVEL
CONVERGENCE PROVIDED THE NECESSARY ASCENT FOR STORMS TO DEVELOP
ACROSS THE PHOENIX AREA...DESPITE LIMITED INSTABILITY AND INCREASING
INHIBITION. RAIN TOTALS WERE GENERALLY AROUND A TENTH OF AN
INCH...EXCEPT IN SCOTTSDALE WHERE SOME AREAS RECEIVED OVER A HALF OF
AN INCH.

IT IS INTERESTING TO NOTE THAT CLOUD TOP TEMPERATURES ON
IR SATELLITE ONLY REACHED -29C...WHICH CORRESPONDS TO ROUGHLY 350 MB
OR 25-30K FEET ON THE FGZ/TWC SOUNDINGS AND RIGHT AT THE BASE OF THE
UPPER-LEVEL SUBSIDENCE INVERSION. IT IS THIS INVERSION ASSOCIATED
WITH A BUILDING UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE THAT PREVENTED STORMS FROM
REACHING SEVERE THRESHOLDS.

REST OF TONIGHT...MID-TROPOSPHERIC LOW ACROSS NORTHERN SONORA WILL
CONTINUE TO MIGRATE EASTWARD. GLOBAL AND CONVECTIVE-ALLOWING MODELS
INDICATE THAT ISOLATED CONVECTION ACROSS THE LOWER DESERTS WILL
DISSIPATE AS WELL. MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO THE FORECAST WILL BE NEEDED
TO ACCOUNT FOR RECENT DOWNWARD TRENDS.

&&

.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
WEAK CYCLONIC FLOW WILL REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST ON
MONDAY...BUT WILL BE DISPLACED WELL TO THE EAST COMPARED TO TODAY.
ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE HIGHER
TERRAIN BUT THE VAST MAJORITY OF THE ACTIVITY SHOULD BE INTO NEW
MEXICO BY MONDAY AFTERNOON. ALL OF THE HI-RES MODELS AS WELL AS THE
USUALLY WET SREF GUIDANCE AGREES WITH THIS ASSESSMENT AND ASIDE FROM
A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS AROUND GLOBE/HILLTOP/ROOSEVELT...IT SHOULD BE
RELATIVELY QUIET. STRONG SUBSIDENCE IN THE 500-300MB LAYER SHOULD
ALSO LIMIT STORM COVERAGE/INTENSITY.

ON TO TUESDAY AS A TROUGH PRESENTLY LOCATED OVER THE PAC NW MOVES
INLAND THROUGH UTAH. A FEW DAYS AGO THIS TROUGH WAS EXPECTED TO MOVE
THROUGH PORTIONS OF ARIZONA BUT THE NORTHWARD TREND REMAINS ON
TRACK. VERY SLIM CHANCES OF SHOWERS WITH THIS SYSTEM EAST OF PHOENIX
AND VIRTUALLY NO CHANCE WHATSOEVER ACROSS THE LOWER DESERTS. SHOULD
ONLY SEE A BRIEF INCREASE IN CLOUDS DURING THE DAY ON TUESDAY
FOLLOWED BY CLEARING TUESDAY NIGHT.

LOOKING AHEAD FROM WEDNESDAY INTO THE WEEKEND...RIDGING WILL SET UP
YIELDING DRY WEATHER ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA.
MEANWHILE...TEMPERATURES WILL BEGIN AN UPWARD CLIMB INTO THE MID 90S
WHICH IS JUST ABOUT 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL FOR LATE OCTOBER. THE
RIDGE WILL BREAK DOWN BY SATURDAY/SUNDAY YIELDING SLIGHTLY COOLER
TEMPERATURES BUT STILL WARMER THAN NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION...
SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA INCLUDING KPHX...KIWA AND KSDL...
SCT-BKN CLOUD DECKS GENERALLY AOA 9KFT WILL PERSIST INTO THE EVENING
HOURS...ALONG WITH ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS EAST AND SOUTH OF THE
TERMINALS PERSISTING UNTIL AROUND SUNSET. GUSTY OUTFLOW FROM
VICINITY STORMS IS POSSIBLE THROUGH UNTIL 01Z...ESPECIALLY NEAR
KIWA...BUT OVERALL WINDS SHOULD REMAIN LIGHT AND VARIABLE FAVORING
EAST OVERNIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING. CLOUD DECKS WILL THIN OUT LATER
THIS EVENING...WITH SOME DEBRIS REMAINING INTO MONDAY MORNING.

SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA AND SOUTHWEST ARIZONA INCLUDING KIPL AND KBLH...
MAINLY CLEAR SKIES WITH LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS EXPECTED THROUGH
THE PERIOD.

AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDED TAFS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...
A GRADUAL DRYING TREND IS EXPECTED THE LATER HALF OF THE WEEK...WITH
MINIMUM HUMIDITY LEVELS GRADUALLY TRENDING DOWN INTO THE TEENS BY
THE WEEKEND. WINDS WILL BE GENERALLY LIGHT AND FOLLOW TYPICAL
DIURNAL PATTERNS EACH DAY.

&&

.PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

AZ...NONE.

CA...NONE.

&&

$$

VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/PHOENIX

DISCUSSION...HIRSCH
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...LEINS
AVIATION...MEYERS
FIRE WEATHER...MEYERS






000
FXUS65 KPSR 200417
AFDPSR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PHOENIX AZ
920 PM MST SUN OCT 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL LINGER THROUGH MONDAY ACROSS THE
MOUNTAINS NORTH AND EAST OF PHOENIX. ANOTHER TROUGH WILL MOVE
THROUGH THE AREA ON TUESDAY HOWEVER ONLY A FEW CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED
WITH THIS SYSTEM. CONDITIONS WILL WARM UP BY MID WEEK INTO NEXT
WEEKEND AS HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES OVERHEAD.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING WAS MORE
REMINISCENT OF THE MONSOON...THOUGH THE CHARACTER OF THE STORMS WAS
DEFINITIVELY FALL-LIKE WITH 500 MB TEMPERATURES AS COLD AS -15C.
CONVECTION INITIALLY DEVELOPED ACROSS EASTERN PINAL AND SOUTHERN
GILA COUNTIES THIS AFTERNOON...PRODUCING SMALL HAIL AND AREAS OF
HEAVY RAIN AND MINOR FLOODING. AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY PROPAGATING FROM
SE AZ THEN COLLIDED WITH A GUST FRONT DROPPING SOUTHWESTWARD FROM
NORTHEASTERN MARICOPA COUNTY. CONSEQUENTLY...STRONG LOW-LEVEL
CONVERGENCE PROVIDED THE NECESSARY ASCENT FOR STORMS TO DEVELOP
ACROSS THE PHOENIX AREA...DESPITE LIMITED INSTABILITY AND INCREASING
INHIBITION. RAIN TOTALS WERE GENERALLY AROUND A TENTH OF AN
INCH...EXCEPT IN SCOTTSDALE WHERE SOME AREAS RECEIVED OVER A HALF OF
AN INCH.

IT IS INTERESTING TO NOTE THAT CLOUD TOP TEMPERATURES ON
IR SATELLITE ONLY REACHED -29C...WHICH CORRESPONDS TO ROUGHLY 350 MB
OR 25-30K FEET ON THE FGZ/TWC SOUNDINGS AND RIGHT AT THE BASE OF THE
UPPER-LEVEL SUBSIDENCE INVERSION. IT IS THIS INVERSION ASSOCIATED
WITH A BUILDING UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE THAT PREVENTED STORMS FROM
REACHING SEVERE THRESHOLDS.

REST OF TONIGHT...MID-TROPOSPHERIC LOW ACROSS NORTHERN SONORA WILL
CONTINUE TO MIGRATE EASTWARD. GLOBAL AND CONVECTIVE-ALLOWING MODELS
INDICATE THAT ISOLATED CONVECTION ACROSS THE LOWER DESERTS WILL
DISSIPATE AS WELL. MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO THE FORECAST WILL BE NEEDED
TO ACCOUNT FOR RECENT DOWNWARD TRENDS.

&&

.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
WEAK CYCLONIC FLOW WILL REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST ON
MONDAY...BUT WILL BE DISPLACED WELL TO THE EAST COMPARED TO TODAY.
ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE HIGHER
TERRAIN BUT THE VAST MAJORITY OF THE ACTIVITY SHOULD BE INTO NEW
MEXICO BY MONDAY AFTERNOON. ALL OF THE HI-RES MODELS AS WELL AS THE
USUALLY WET SREF GUIDANCE AGREES WITH THIS ASSESSMENT AND ASIDE FROM
A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS AROUND GLOBE/HILLTOP/ROOSEVELT...IT SHOULD BE
RELATIVELY QUIET. STRONG SUBSIDENCE IN THE 500-300MB LAYER SHOULD
ALSO LIMIT STORM COVERAGE/INTENSITY.

ON TO TUESDAY AS A TROUGH PRESENTLY LOCATED OVER THE PAC NW MOVES
INLAND THROUGH UTAH. A FEW DAYS AGO THIS TROUGH WAS EXPECTED TO MOVE
THROUGH PORTIONS OF ARIZONA BUT THE NORTHWARD TREND REMAINS ON
TRACK. VERY SLIM CHANCES OF SHOWERS WITH THIS SYSTEM EAST OF PHOENIX
AND VIRTUALLY NO CHANCE WHATSOEVER ACROSS THE LOWER DESERTS. SHOULD
ONLY SEE A BRIEF INCREASE IN CLOUDS DURING THE DAY ON TUESDAY
FOLLOWED BY CLEARING TUESDAY NIGHT.

LOOKING AHEAD FROM WEDNESDAY INTO THE WEEKEND...RIDGING WILL SET UP
YIELDING DRY WEATHER ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA.
MEANWHILE...TEMPERATURES WILL BEGIN AN UPWARD CLIMB INTO THE MID 90S
WHICH IS JUST ABOUT 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL FOR LATE OCTOBER. THE
RIDGE WILL BREAK DOWN BY SATURDAY/SUNDAY YIELDING SLIGHTLY COOLER
TEMPERATURES BUT STILL WARMER THAN NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION...
SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA INCLUDING KPHX...KIWA AND KSDL...
SCT-BKN CLOUD DECKS GENERALLY AOA 9KFT WILL PERSIST INTO THE EVENING
HOURS...ALONG WITH ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS EAST AND SOUTH OF THE
TERMINALS PERSISTING UNTIL AROUND SUNSET. GUSTY OUTFLOW FROM
VICINITY STORMS IS POSSIBLE THROUGH UNTIL 01Z...ESPECIALLY NEAR
KIWA...BUT OVERALL WINDS SHOULD REMAIN LIGHT AND VARIABLE FAVORING
EAST OVERNIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING. CLOUD DECKS WILL THIN OUT LATER
THIS EVENING...WITH SOME DEBRIS REMAINING INTO MONDAY MORNING.

SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA AND SOUTHWEST ARIZONA INCLUDING KIPL AND KBLH...
MAINLY CLEAR SKIES WITH LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS EXPECTED THROUGH
THE PERIOD.

AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDED TAFS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...
A GRADUAL DRYING TREND IS EXPECTED THE LATER HALF OF THE WEEK...WITH
MINIMUM HUMIDITY LEVELS GRADUALLY TRENDING DOWN INTO THE TEENS BY
THE WEEKEND. WINDS WILL BE GENERALLY LIGHT AND FOLLOW TYPICAL
DIURNAL PATTERNS EACH DAY.

&&

.PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

AZ...NONE.

CA...NONE.

&&

$$

VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/PHOENIX

DISCUSSION...HIRSCH
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...LEINS
AVIATION...MEYERS
FIRE WEATHER...MEYERS







000
FXUS65 KFGZ 200305
AFDFGZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ
805 PM MST SUN OCT 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
EXPECT SCATTERED AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
THROUGH MONDAY...WITH DRYING DEVELOPING ACROSS WESTERN ARIZONA ON
TUESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD IN ACROSS ARIZONA ON
WEDNESDAY BRINGING DRY CONDITIONS AND A WARMING TREND INTO NEXT
WEEKEND.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
MADE A MINOR UPDATE TO DECREASE POP...WX AND SKY IN THE 06Z-12Z
MONDAY PERIOD.

ON MONDAY...EXPECT A DECREASE IN SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY.
THE CLOSED LOW RESPONSIBLE FOR THE ACTIVE WEATHER OVER THE LAST
COUPLE DAYS WILL HAVE MOVED INTO NEW MEXICO. MODELS INDICATE
SUBSIDENCE BEHIND THIS SYSTEM WILL CAUSE WARMING ABOVE 550 MB
LEADING TO A DECREASE IN INSTABILITY. BELOW 55O MB...SOUTHEAST
FLOW AND ENOUGH BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE WILL REMAIN FOR SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY ALONG THE MOGOLLON RIM
FROM FLAGSTAFF TO THE WHITE MOUNTAINS AND NORTH TO THE FOUR
CORNERS REGION.

&&

.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION /300 PM MST/...
DRYING DEVELOPS FROM THE WEST ON TUESDAY AS A TROUGH MOVES
THROUGH THE GREAT BASIN WITH THE HIGHEST PRECIPITATION CHANCES
ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF ARIZONA. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD
IN BEHIND THIS TROUGH FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK. RISING
HEIGHTS AND INCREASING SUBSIDENCE OR DOWNWARD MOVING AIR...WILL
PRODUCE SEVERAL WARM AND SUNNY DAYS HEADING INTO NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION...
FOR THE 06Z PACKAGE...EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT. SCT -SHRA
AND ISOLD -TSRA OVER HIGHER TERRAIN AFT 18Z ON MON...DECREASING
AFT 03Z TUE. PERIODS OF MVFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE UNDER THE
STRONGEST STORMS. AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDMENTS.

&&

.FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC.........RR/BOHLIN
AVIATION.......RR

FOR NORTHERN ARIZONA WEATHER INFORMATION VISIT
WEATHER.GOV/FLAGSTAFF






000
FXUS65 KPSR 192214 AAA
AFDPSR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PHOENIX AZ
313 PM MST SUN OCT 19 2014

.UPDATE...UPDATED AVIATION AND FIRE WEATHER DISCUSSIONS.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY MOVE THROUGH THE AREA
TONIGHT...BRINGING A CHANCE OF MOUNTAIN SHOWERS AND STORMS. ANOTHER
TROUGH WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA ON TUESDAY HOWEVER ONLY A FEW
CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED WITH THIS SYSTEM. CONDITIONS WILL WARM UP BY MID
WEEK INTO NEXT WEEKEND AS HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES OVERHEAD.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
CONVECTION CONTINUES TO PULSE ACROSS EASTERN ARIZONA THIS
AFTERNOON...WITH QUITE A FEW STORMS STRETCHING FROM SOUTHERN GILA
COUNTY INTO GRAHAM AND COCHISE COUNTIES. UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE
REMAINS POSITIONED ACROSS SOUTHEAST ARIZONA WITH WEAK ISENTROPIC
ASCENT SERVING AS THE FORCING MECHANISM FOR THIS ACTIVITY. JUST
ENOUGH INSTABILITY IN THE ATMOSPHERE THIS AFTERNOON TO SEE SOME
LIGHTNING OUT OF THESE STORMS. 12Z TWC AND FGZ SOUNDINGS INDICATED
NEARLY DRY-ADIABATIC LAPSE RATES IN THE MID LEVELS AND MORE RECENT
AIRCRAFT SOUNDINGS REVEAL THIS INSTABILITY IS STILL IN PLACE.

CONVECTION SHOULD CONTINUE TO EXPAND AS WE GET DEEPER INTO THE PEAK
HEATING OF THE AFTERNOON. HI-RES MODELS INDICATE MOST OF THE
ACTIVITY WILL REMAIN CONFINED THE HIGHER TERRAIN WHERE INSTABILITY
WILL BE GREATER /ALBEIT STILL MARGINAL/...YET THERE ARE A FEW
MEMBERS THAT INDICATE STORMS WILL TRY TO HOLD TOGETHER ACROSS THE
LOWER DESERTS. MODEL SOUNDINGS /AND EVEN OBSERVED AIRCRAFT SOUNDINGS
FOR THAT MATTER/ INDICATE QUITE A BIT OF WARM AIR ALOFT AS RIDGING
IS ALREADY TAKING HOLD ACROSS THE AREA ABOVE 400MB...THUS ANY STORMS
THAT DEVELOP WILL LIKELY STRUGGLE TO PERSIST FOR MORE THAN A FEW
RADAR SCANS BEFORE COLLAPSING. WILL HANG ONTO ELEVATED POPS EAST OF
PHOENIX INTO THE EARLY EVENING HOURS BUT KEEP THE FORECAST MAINLY
DRY ACROSS THE DESERTS. ONE CONCERN THAT MAY WARRANT FURTHER
ATTENTION AS WE GET DEEPER INTO THE AFTERNOON IS THE POTENTIAL FOR
PATCHY BLOWING DUST AS ISOLATED DESERT STORMS DISSIPATE THIS
AFTERNOON. I INTRODUCED A MENTION OF PATCHY BLOWING DUST ACROSS NW
PINAL COUNTY THROUGH EARLY EVENING...OTHERWISE I THINK THE THREAT IS
MINIMAL.

WEAK CYCLONIC FLOW WILL REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST ON
MONDAY...BUT WILL BE DISPLACED WELL TO THE EAST COMPARED TO TODAY.
ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE HIGHER
TERRAIN BUT THE VAST MAJORITY OF THE ACTIVITY SHOULD BE INTO NEW
MEXICO BY MONDAY AFTERNOON. ALL OF THE HI-RES MODELS AS WELL AS THE
USUALLY WET SREF GUIDANCE AGREES WITH THIS ASSESSMENT AND ASIDE FROM
A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS AROUND GLOBE/HILLTOP/ROOSEVELT...IT SHOULD BE
RELATIVELY QUIET. STRONG SUBSIDENCE IN THE 500-300MB LAYER SHOULD
ALSO LIMIT STORM COVERAGE/INTENSITY.

ON TO TUESDAY AS A TROUGH PRESENTLY LOCATED OVER THE PAC NW MOVES
INLAND THROUGH UTAH. A FEW DAYS AGO THIS TROUGH WAS EXPECTED TO MOVE
THROUGH PORTIONS OF ARIZONA BUT THE NORTHWARD TREND REMAINS ON
TRACK. VERY SLIM CHANCES OF SHOWERS WITH THIS SYSTEM EAST OF PHOENIX
AND VIRTUALLY NO CHANCE WHATSOEVER ACROSS THE LOWER DESERTS. SHOULD
ONLY SEE A BRIEF INCREASE IN CLOUDS DURING THE DAY ON TUESDAY
FOLLOWED BY CLEARING TUESDAY NIGHT.

LOOKING AHEAD FROM WEDNESDAY INTO THE WEEKEND...RIDGING WILL SET UP
YIELDING DRY WEATHER ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA.
MEANWHILE...TEMPERATURES WILL BEGIN AN UPWARD CLIMB INTO THE MID 90S
WHICH IS JUST ABOUT 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL FOR LATE OCTOBER. THE
RIDGE WILL BREAK DOWN BY SATURDAY/SUNDAY YIELDING SLIGHTLY COOLER
TEMPERATURES BUT STILL WARMER THAN NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION...
SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA INCLUDING KPHX...KIWA AND KSDL...
SCT-BKN CLOUD DECKS GENERALLY AOA 9KFT WILL PERSIST INTO THE EVENING
HOURS...ALONG WITH ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS EAST AND SOUTH OF THE
TERMINALS PERSISTING UNTIL AROUND SUNSET. GUSTY OUTFLOW FROM
VICINITY STORMS IS POSSIBLE THROUGH UNTIL 01Z...ESPECIALLY NEAR
KIWA...BUT OVERALL WINDS SHOULD REMAIN LIGHT AND VARIABLE FAVORING
EAST OVERNIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING. CLOUD DECKS WILL THIN OUT LATER
THIS EVENING...WITH SOME DEBRIS REMAINING INTO MONDAY MORNING.

SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA AND SOUTHWEST ARIZONA INCLUDING KIPL AND KBLH...
MAINLY CLEAR SKIES WITH LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS EXPECTED THROUGH
THE PERIOD.

AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDED TAFS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...
A GRADUAL DRYING TREND IS EXPECTED THE LATER HALF OF THE WEEK...WITH
MINIMUM HUMIDITY LEVELS GRADUALLY TRENDING DOWN INTO THE TEENS BY
THE WEEKEND. WINDS WILL BE GENERALLY LIGHT AND FOLLOW TYPICAL
DIURNAL PATTERNS EACH DAY.

&&

.PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

AZ...NONE.

CA...NONE.

&&

$$

VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/PHOENIX

DISCUSSION...LEINS
AVIATION...MEYERS
FIRE WEATHER...MEYERS





000
FXUS65 KPSR 192214 AAA
AFDPSR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PHOENIX AZ
313 PM MST SUN OCT 19 2014

.UPDATE...UPDATED AVIATION AND FIRE WEATHER DISCUSSIONS.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY MOVE THROUGH THE AREA
TONIGHT...BRINGING A CHANCE OF MOUNTAIN SHOWERS AND STORMS. ANOTHER
TROUGH WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA ON TUESDAY HOWEVER ONLY A FEW
CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED WITH THIS SYSTEM. CONDITIONS WILL WARM UP BY MID
WEEK INTO NEXT WEEKEND AS HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES OVERHEAD.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
CONVECTION CONTINUES TO PULSE ACROSS EASTERN ARIZONA THIS
AFTERNOON...WITH QUITE A FEW STORMS STRETCHING FROM SOUTHERN GILA
COUNTY INTO GRAHAM AND COCHISE COUNTIES. UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE
REMAINS POSITIONED ACROSS SOUTHEAST ARIZONA WITH WEAK ISENTROPIC
ASCENT SERVING AS THE FORCING MECHANISM FOR THIS ACTIVITY. JUST
ENOUGH INSTABILITY IN THE ATMOSPHERE THIS AFTERNOON TO SEE SOME
LIGHTNING OUT OF THESE STORMS. 12Z TWC AND FGZ SOUNDINGS INDICATED
NEARLY DRY-ADIABATIC LAPSE RATES IN THE MID LEVELS AND MORE RECENT
AIRCRAFT SOUNDINGS REVEAL THIS INSTABILITY IS STILL IN PLACE.

CONVECTION SHOULD CONTINUE TO EXPAND AS WE GET DEEPER INTO THE PEAK
HEATING OF THE AFTERNOON. HI-RES MODELS INDICATE MOST OF THE
ACTIVITY WILL REMAIN CONFINED THE HIGHER TERRAIN WHERE INSTABILITY
WILL BE GREATER /ALBEIT STILL MARGINAL/...YET THERE ARE A FEW
MEMBERS THAT INDICATE STORMS WILL TRY TO HOLD TOGETHER ACROSS THE
LOWER DESERTS. MODEL SOUNDINGS /AND EVEN OBSERVED AIRCRAFT SOUNDINGS
FOR THAT MATTER/ INDICATE QUITE A BIT OF WARM AIR ALOFT AS RIDGING
IS ALREADY TAKING HOLD ACROSS THE AREA ABOVE 400MB...THUS ANY STORMS
THAT DEVELOP WILL LIKELY STRUGGLE TO PERSIST FOR MORE THAN A FEW
RADAR SCANS BEFORE COLLAPSING. WILL HANG ONTO ELEVATED POPS EAST OF
PHOENIX INTO THE EARLY EVENING HOURS BUT KEEP THE FORECAST MAINLY
DRY ACROSS THE DESERTS. ONE CONCERN THAT MAY WARRANT FURTHER
ATTENTION AS WE GET DEEPER INTO THE AFTERNOON IS THE POTENTIAL FOR
PATCHY BLOWING DUST AS ISOLATED DESERT STORMS DISSIPATE THIS
AFTERNOON. I INTRODUCED A MENTION OF PATCHY BLOWING DUST ACROSS NW
PINAL COUNTY THROUGH EARLY EVENING...OTHERWISE I THINK THE THREAT IS
MINIMAL.

WEAK CYCLONIC FLOW WILL REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST ON
MONDAY...BUT WILL BE DISPLACED WELL TO THE EAST COMPARED TO TODAY.
ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE HIGHER
TERRAIN BUT THE VAST MAJORITY OF THE ACTIVITY SHOULD BE INTO NEW
MEXICO BY MONDAY AFTERNOON. ALL OF THE HI-RES MODELS AS WELL AS THE
USUALLY WET SREF GUIDANCE AGREES WITH THIS ASSESSMENT AND ASIDE FROM
A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS AROUND GLOBE/HILLTOP/ROOSEVELT...IT SHOULD BE
RELATIVELY QUIET. STRONG SUBSIDENCE IN THE 500-300MB LAYER SHOULD
ALSO LIMIT STORM COVERAGE/INTENSITY.

ON TO TUESDAY AS A TROUGH PRESENTLY LOCATED OVER THE PAC NW MOVES
INLAND THROUGH UTAH. A FEW DAYS AGO THIS TROUGH WAS EXPECTED TO MOVE
THROUGH PORTIONS OF ARIZONA BUT THE NORTHWARD TREND REMAINS ON
TRACK. VERY SLIM CHANCES OF SHOWERS WITH THIS SYSTEM EAST OF PHOENIX
AND VIRTUALLY NO CHANCE WHATSOEVER ACROSS THE LOWER DESERTS. SHOULD
ONLY SEE A BRIEF INCREASE IN CLOUDS DURING THE DAY ON TUESDAY
FOLLOWED BY CLEARING TUESDAY NIGHT.

LOOKING AHEAD FROM WEDNESDAY INTO THE WEEKEND...RIDGING WILL SET UP
YIELDING DRY WEATHER ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA.
MEANWHILE...TEMPERATURES WILL BEGIN AN UPWARD CLIMB INTO THE MID 90S
WHICH IS JUST ABOUT 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL FOR LATE OCTOBER. THE
RIDGE WILL BREAK DOWN BY SATURDAY/SUNDAY YIELDING SLIGHTLY COOLER
TEMPERATURES BUT STILL WARMER THAN NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION...
SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA INCLUDING KPHX...KIWA AND KSDL...
SCT-BKN CLOUD DECKS GENERALLY AOA 9KFT WILL PERSIST INTO THE EVENING
HOURS...ALONG WITH ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS EAST AND SOUTH OF THE
TERMINALS PERSISTING UNTIL AROUND SUNSET. GUSTY OUTFLOW FROM
VICINITY STORMS IS POSSIBLE THROUGH UNTIL 01Z...ESPECIALLY NEAR
KIWA...BUT OVERALL WINDS SHOULD REMAIN LIGHT AND VARIABLE FAVORING
EAST OVERNIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING. CLOUD DECKS WILL THIN OUT LATER
THIS EVENING...WITH SOME DEBRIS REMAINING INTO MONDAY MORNING.

SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA AND SOUTHWEST ARIZONA INCLUDING KIPL AND KBLH...
MAINLY CLEAR SKIES WITH LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS EXPECTED THROUGH
THE PERIOD.

AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDED TAFS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...
A GRADUAL DRYING TREND IS EXPECTED THE LATER HALF OF THE WEEK...WITH
MINIMUM HUMIDITY LEVELS GRADUALLY TRENDING DOWN INTO THE TEENS BY
THE WEEKEND. WINDS WILL BE GENERALLY LIGHT AND FOLLOW TYPICAL
DIURNAL PATTERNS EACH DAY.

&&

.PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

AZ...NONE.

CA...NONE.

&&

$$

VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/PHOENIX

DISCUSSION...LEINS
AVIATION...MEYERS
FIRE WEATHER...MEYERS






000
FXUS65 KFGZ 192204
AFDFGZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ
300 PM MST SUN OCT 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...EXPECT SCATTERED AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH MONDAY...WITH DRYING DEVELOPING ACROSS WESTERN
ARIZONA ON TUESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD IN ACROSS ARIZONA
ON WEDNESDAY BRINGING DRY CONDITIONS AND A WARMING TREND INTO NEXT
WEEKEND.

&&

.DISCUSSION...A WEAK LOW PRESSURE CENTER CONTINUES TO MOVE SLOWLY
EASTWARD ALONG THE MEXICAN BORDER REGION. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
CONTINUE TO DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON AS SURFACE HEATING HAS OVERCOME
THE WEAK STABLE LAYER ALOFT. THE HEAVIEST SHOWERS THIS AFTERNOON
FORMED IN APACHE COUNTY NEAR LYMAN LAKE AND NORTHERN GILA COUNTY
NEAR PAYSON.

ON MONDAY...SCATTERED SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WILL LINGER
MAINLY ALONG THE MOGOLLON RIM REGION FROM FLAGSTAFF TO THE WHITE
MOUNTAINS AND NORTH TO THE FOUR CORNERS REGION.

DRYING DEVELOPS FROM THE WEST ON TUESDAY AS A TROUGH MOVES THROUGH
THE GREAT BASIN WITH THE HIGHEST PRECIPITATION CHANCES ACROSS THE
EASTERN HALF OF ARIZONA. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD IN BEHIND
THIS TROUGH FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK. RISING HEIGHTS AND
INCREASING SUBSIDENCE OR DOWNWARD MOVING AIR...WILL PRODUCE SEVERAL
WARM AND SUNNY DAYS HEADING INTO NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 00Z PACKAGE...EXPECT SCT -SHRA AND -TSRA OVER
THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF N. ARIZONA THROUGH 03Z...WITH MVFR CONDITIONS
NEAR THE HEAVIEST SHOWERS. STORMS WILL DISSIPATE OVERNIGHT...WITH
REDEVELOPMENT OF SCT -SHRA AND ISOLD -TSRA OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN AFT
18Z ON MONDAY. AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDMENTS.

&&

.FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC.........BOHLIN
AVIATION.......BAK

FOR NORTHERN ARIZONA WEATHER INFORMATION VISIT
WEATHER.GOV/FLAGSTAFF







000
FXUS65 KFGZ 192204
AFDFGZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ
300 PM MST SUN OCT 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...EXPECT SCATTERED AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH MONDAY...WITH DRYING DEVELOPING ACROSS WESTERN
ARIZONA ON TUESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD IN ACROSS ARIZONA
ON WEDNESDAY BRINGING DRY CONDITIONS AND A WARMING TREND INTO NEXT
WEEKEND.

&&

.DISCUSSION...A WEAK LOW PRESSURE CENTER CONTINUES TO MOVE SLOWLY
EASTWARD ALONG THE MEXICAN BORDER REGION. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
CONTINUE TO DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON AS SURFACE HEATING HAS OVERCOME
THE WEAK STABLE LAYER ALOFT. THE HEAVIEST SHOWERS THIS AFTERNOON
FORMED IN APACHE COUNTY NEAR LYMAN LAKE AND NORTHERN GILA COUNTY
NEAR PAYSON.

ON MONDAY...SCATTERED SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WILL LINGER
MAINLY ALONG THE MOGOLLON RIM REGION FROM FLAGSTAFF TO THE WHITE
MOUNTAINS AND NORTH TO THE FOUR CORNERS REGION.

DRYING DEVELOPS FROM THE WEST ON TUESDAY AS A TROUGH MOVES THROUGH
THE GREAT BASIN WITH THE HIGHEST PRECIPITATION CHANCES ACROSS THE
EASTERN HALF OF ARIZONA. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD IN BEHIND
THIS TROUGH FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK. RISING HEIGHTS AND
INCREASING SUBSIDENCE OR DOWNWARD MOVING AIR...WILL PRODUCE SEVERAL
WARM AND SUNNY DAYS HEADING INTO NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 00Z PACKAGE...EXPECT SCT -SHRA AND -TSRA OVER
THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF N. ARIZONA THROUGH 03Z...WITH MVFR CONDITIONS
NEAR THE HEAVIEST SHOWERS. STORMS WILL DISSIPATE OVERNIGHT...WITH
REDEVELOPMENT OF SCT -SHRA AND ISOLD -TSRA OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN AFT
18Z ON MONDAY. AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDMENTS.

&&

.FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC.........BOHLIN
AVIATION.......BAK

FOR NORTHERN ARIZONA WEATHER INFORMATION VISIT
WEATHER.GOV/FLAGSTAFF






000
FXUS65 KTWC 192117
AFDTWC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ
217 PM MST SUN OCT 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...A SLOW MOVING WEATHER SYSTEM OVER NORTHERN MEXICO WILL
KEEP THE CHANCE OF RAIN IN THE FORECAST THROUGH WEDNESDAY. STRONG
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING DRIER CONDITIONS THE SECOND HALF OF THE
WEEK ALONG WITH MUCH WARMER TEMPERATURES.

&&

.DISCUSSION...RADAR CONTINUED TO SHOW ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING ACROSS THE AREA. THIS DEVELOPMENT WAS
RATHER SIMILAR TO WHAT A FEW OF THE HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS WERE
ADVERTISING FOR TODAY. MODELS ALSO SUGGESTED THAT OUTFLOW FROM THESE
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS COULD BECOME ORGANIZED ENOUGH TO PRODUCE
AREAS OF BLOWING DUST ACROSS MAINLY PINAL COUNTY BY EARLY THIS
EVENING. THAT SAID...WILL KEEP SOME AREAS OF BLOWING DUST IN THE
GRIDDED FORECAST FOR SOUTHEAST PINAL COUNTY. OTHERWISE...THE WEATHER
SYSTEM RESPONSIBLE FOR BRINGING THE RAIN TODAY WAS PROGGED BY THE
MODELS TO TRACK OVER NORTHERN MEXICO THROUGH LATE TUESDAY. THE
VICINITY OF THE SYSTEM WILL KEEP RAIN CHANCES IN THE FORECAST AS IN
TRACKS EAST. THE BEST CHANCE FOR RAIN WILL SHIFT EAST TOMORROW AND
BE CONFINED MAINLY TO LOCATIONS EAST OF TUCSON AND NOGALES.
THEREAFTER...HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WAS PROGGED TO BUILD OVER THE REGION
RESULTING IN DRIER CONDITIONS AND A WARMING TREND STATEWIDE AROUND
THURSDAY INTO NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION...VALID THRU 21/00Z.
SCT-BKN CLOUDS 6-10K FT WITH THE HIGHEST COVERAGE EAST OF KTUS THIS
AFTERNOON...THEN DIMINISHING CLOUD COVERAGE AFTER 20/03Z.  THERE
WILL BE ENOUGH MOISTURE FOR SCT -SHRA/-TSRA MAINLY FROM KTUS
EASTWARD THIS AFTERNOON WITH COVERAGE DIMINISHING AFTER SUNSET. SFC
WINDS GENERALLY LESS THAN 10 KTS EXCEPT SOUTHEAST WIND TO 15 KT
EASTERN AREAS. GUSTY WINDS ARE POSSIBLE IN/NEAR TSRA THIS AFTERNOON
AND EARLY EVENING. SOME ISOLD -SHRA/-TSRA WILL BE POSSIBLE AGAIN
MONDAY AFTER 18Z BUT MAINLY ACROSS EASTERN AREAS INCLUDING KDUG.
SOME AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR TAF AMENDMENTS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE ACROSS THE AREA IN
COMBINATION WITH MODEST MOISTURE WILL RESULT IN A CHANCE OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH TUESDAY...MAINLY FROM TUCSON EASTWARD. BY
WEDNESDAY...REMAINING MOISTURE ALONG WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS
WILL BE LIMITED TO JUST THE WHITE MOUNTAINS. DRY CONDITIONS WILL
THEN OCCUR AREA WIDE FOR THE END OF THE WORK WEEK WITH SIGNIFICANTLY
ABOVE NORMAL HIGH TEMPERATURES. 20-FOOT WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE
DIURNAL AND LESS THAN 15 MPH THIS WEEK.  SOME GUSTY WINDS ARE
POSSIBLE NEAR ANY THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

$$

VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...YOUTUBE...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/TUCSON






000
FXUS65 KTWC 192117
AFDTWC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ
217 PM MST SUN OCT 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...A SLOW MOVING WEATHER SYSTEM OVER NORTHERN MEXICO WILL
KEEP THE CHANCE OF RAIN IN THE FORECAST THROUGH WEDNESDAY. STRONG
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING DRIER CONDITIONS THE SECOND HALF OF THE
WEEK ALONG WITH MUCH WARMER TEMPERATURES.

&&

.DISCUSSION...RADAR CONTINUED TO SHOW ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING ACROSS THE AREA. THIS DEVELOPMENT WAS
RATHER SIMILAR TO WHAT A FEW OF THE HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS WERE
ADVERTISING FOR TODAY. MODELS ALSO SUGGESTED THAT OUTFLOW FROM THESE
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS COULD BECOME ORGANIZED ENOUGH TO PRODUCE
AREAS OF BLOWING DUST ACROSS MAINLY PINAL COUNTY BY EARLY THIS
EVENING. THAT SAID...WILL KEEP SOME AREAS OF BLOWING DUST IN THE
GRIDDED FORECAST FOR SOUTHEAST PINAL COUNTY. OTHERWISE...THE WEATHER
SYSTEM RESPONSIBLE FOR BRINGING THE RAIN TODAY WAS PROGGED BY THE
MODELS TO TRACK OVER NORTHERN MEXICO THROUGH LATE TUESDAY. THE
VICINITY OF THE SYSTEM WILL KEEP RAIN CHANCES IN THE FORECAST AS IN
TRACKS EAST. THE BEST CHANCE FOR RAIN WILL SHIFT EAST TOMORROW AND
BE CONFINED MAINLY TO LOCATIONS EAST OF TUCSON AND NOGALES.
THEREAFTER...HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WAS PROGGED TO BUILD OVER THE REGION
RESULTING IN DRIER CONDITIONS AND A WARMING TREND STATEWIDE AROUND
THURSDAY INTO NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION...VALID THRU 21/00Z.
SCT-BKN CLOUDS 6-10K FT WITH THE HIGHEST COVERAGE EAST OF KTUS THIS
AFTERNOON...THEN DIMINISHING CLOUD COVERAGE AFTER 20/03Z.  THERE
WILL BE ENOUGH MOISTURE FOR SCT -SHRA/-TSRA MAINLY FROM KTUS
EASTWARD THIS AFTERNOON WITH COVERAGE DIMINISHING AFTER SUNSET. SFC
WINDS GENERALLY LESS THAN 10 KTS EXCEPT SOUTHEAST WIND TO 15 KT
EASTERN AREAS. GUSTY WINDS ARE POSSIBLE IN/NEAR TSRA THIS AFTERNOON
AND EARLY EVENING. SOME ISOLD -SHRA/-TSRA WILL BE POSSIBLE AGAIN
MONDAY AFTER 18Z BUT MAINLY ACROSS EASTERN AREAS INCLUDING KDUG.
SOME AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR TAF AMENDMENTS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE ACROSS THE AREA IN
COMBINATION WITH MODEST MOISTURE WILL RESULT IN A CHANCE OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH TUESDAY...MAINLY FROM TUCSON EASTWARD. BY
WEDNESDAY...REMAINING MOISTURE ALONG WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS
WILL BE LIMITED TO JUST THE WHITE MOUNTAINS. DRY CONDITIONS WILL
THEN OCCUR AREA WIDE FOR THE END OF THE WORK WEEK WITH SIGNIFICANTLY
ABOVE NORMAL HIGH TEMPERATURES. 20-FOOT WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE
DIURNAL AND LESS THAN 15 MPH THIS WEEK.  SOME GUSTY WINDS ARE
POSSIBLE NEAR ANY THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

$$

VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...YOUTUBE...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/TUCSON






000
FXUS65 KTWC 192117
AFDTWC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ
217 PM MST SUN OCT 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...A SLOW MOVING WEATHER SYSTEM OVER NORTHERN MEXICO WILL
KEEP THE CHANCE OF RAIN IN THE FORECAST THROUGH WEDNESDAY. STRONG
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING DRIER CONDITIONS THE SECOND HALF OF THE
WEEK ALONG WITH MUCH WARMER TEMPERATURES.

&&

.DISCUSSION...RADAR CONTINUED TO SHOW ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING ACROSS THE AREA. THIS DEVELOPMENT WAS
RATHER SIMILAR TO WHAT A FEW OF THE HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS WERE
ADVERTISING FOR TODAY. MODELS ALSO SUGGESTED THAT OUTFLOW FROM THESE
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS COULD BECOME ORGANIZED ENOUGH TO PRODUCE
AREAS OF BLOWING DUST ACROSS MAINLY PINAL COUNTY BY EARLY THIS
EVENING. THAT SAID...WILL KEEP SOME AREAS OF BLOWING DUST IN THE
GRIDDED FORECAST FOR SOUTHEAST PINAL COUNTY. OTHERWISE...THE WEATHER
SYSTEM RESPONSIBLE FOR BRINGING THE RAIN TODAY WAS PROGGED BY THE
MODELS TO TRACK OVER NORTHERN MEXICO THROUGH LATE TUESDAY. THE
VICINITY OF THE SYSTEM WILL KEEP RAIN CHANCES IN THE FORECAST AS IN
TRACKS EAST. THE BEST CHANCE FOR RAIN WILL SHIFT EAST TOMORROW AND
BE CONFINED MAINLY TO LOCATIONS EAST OF TUCSON AND NOGALES.
THEREAFTER...HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WAS PROGGED TO BUILD OVER THE REGION
RESULTING IN DRIER CONDITIONS AND A WARMING TREND STATEWIDE AROUND
THURSDAY INTO NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION...VALID THRU 21/00Z.
SCT-BKN CLOUDS 6-10K FT WITH THE HIGHEST COVERAGE EAST OF KTUS THIS
AFTERNOON...THEN DIMINISHING CLOUD COVERAGE AFTER 20/03Z.  THERE
WILL BE ENOUGH MOISTURE FOR SCT -SHRA/-TSRA MAINLY FROM KTUS
EASTWARD THIS AFTERNOON WITH COVERAGE DIMINISHING AFTER SUNSET. SFC
WINDS GENERALLY LESS THAN 10 KTS EXCEPT SOUTHEAST WIND TO 15 KT
EASTERN AREAS. GUSTY WINDS ARE POSSIBLE IN/NEAR TSRA THIS AFTERNOON
AND EARLY EVENING. SOME ISOLD -SHRA/-TSRA WILL BE POSSIBLE AGAIN
MONDAY AFTER 18Z BUT MAINLY ACROSS EASTERN AREAS INCLUDING KDUG.
SOME AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR TAF AMENDMENTS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE ACROSS THE AREA IN
COMBINATION WITH MODEST MOISTURE WILL RESULT IN A CHANCE OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH TUESDAY...MAINLY FROM TUCSON EASTWARD. BY
WEDNESDAY...REMAINING MOISTURE ALONG WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS
WILL BE LIMITED TO JUST THE WHITE MOUNTAINS. DRY CONDITIONS WILL
THEN OCCUR AREA WIDE FOR THE END OF THE WORK WEEK WITH SIGNIFICANTLY
ABOVE NORMAL HIGH TEMPERATURES. 20-FOOT WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE
DIURNAL AND LESS THAN 15 MPH THIS WEEK.  SOME GUSTY WINDS ARE
POSSIBLE NEAR ANY THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

$$

VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...YOUTUBE...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/TUCSON






000
FXUS65 KTWC 192117
AFDTWC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ
217 PM MST SUN OCT 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...A SLOW MOVING WEATHER SYSTEM OVER NORTHERN MEXICO WILL
KEEP THE CHANCE OF RAIN IN THE FORECAST THROUGH WEDNESDAY. STRONG
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING DRIER CONDITIONS THE SECOND HALF OF THE
WEEK ALONG WITH MUCH WARMER TEMPERATURES.

&&

.DISCUSSION...RADAR CONTINUED TO SHOW ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING ACROSS THE AREA. THIS DEVELOPMENT WAS
RATHER SIMILAR TO WHAT A FEW OF THE HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS WERE
ADVERTISING FOR TODAY. MODELS ALSO SUGGESTED THAT OUTFLOW FROM THESE
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS COULD BECOME ORGANIZED ENOUGH TO PRODUCE
AREAS OF BLOWING DUST ACROSS MAINLY PINAL COUNTY BY EARLY THIS
EVENING. THAT SAID...WILL KEEP SOME AREAS OF BLOWING DUST IN THE
GRIDDED FORECAST FOR SOUTHEAST PINAL COUNTY. OTHERWISE...THE WEATHER
SYSTEM RESPONSIBLE FOR BRINGING THE RAIN TODAY WAS PROGGED BY THE
MODELS TO TRACK OVER NORTHERN MEXICO THROUGH LATE TUESDAY. THE
VICINITY OF THE SYSTEM WILL KEEP RAIN CHANCES IN THE FORECAST AS IN
TRACKS EAST. THE BEST CHANCE FOR RAIN WILL SHIFT EAST TOMORROW AND
BE CONFINED MAINLY TO LOCATIONS EAST OF TUCSON AND NOGALES.
THEREAFTER...HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WAS PROGGED TO BUILD OVER THE REGION
RESULTING IN DRIER CONDITIONS AND A WARMING TREND STATEWIDE AROUND
THURSDAY INTO NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION...VALID THRU 21/00Z.
SCT-BKN CLOUDS 6-10K FT WITH THE HIGHEST COVERAGE EAST OF KTUS THIS
AFTERNOON...THEN DIMINISHING CLOUD COVERAGE AFTER 20/03Z.  THERE
WILL BE ENOUGH MOISTURE FOR SCT -SHRA/-TSRA MAINLY FROM KTUS
EASTWARD THIS AFTERNOON WITH COVERAGE DIMINISHING AFTER SUNSET. SFC
WINDS GENERALLY LESS THAN 10 KTS EXCEPT SOUTHEAST WIND TO 15 KT
EASTERN AREAS. GUSTY WINDS ARE POSSIBLE IN/NEAR TSRA THIS AFTERNOON
AND EARLY EVENING. SOME ISOLD -SHRA/-TSRA WILL BE POSSIBLE AGAIN
MONDAY AFTER 18Z BUT MAINLY ACROSS EASTERN AREAS INCLUDING KDUG.
SOME AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR TAF AMENDMENTS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE ACROSS THE AREA IN
COMBINATION WITH MODEST MOISTURE WILL RESULT IN A CHANCE OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH TUESDAY...MAINLY FROM TUCSON EASTWARD. BY
WEDNESDAY...REMAINING MOISTURE ALONG WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS
WILL BE LIMITED TO JUST THE WHITE MOUNTAINS. DRY CONDITIONS WILL
THEN OCCUR AREA WIDE FOR THE END OF THE WORK WEEK WITH SIGNIFICANTLY
ABOVE NORMAL HIGH TEMPERATURES. 20-FOOT WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE
DIURNAL AND LESS THAN 15 MPH THIS WEEK.  SOME GUSTY WINDS ARE
POSSIBLE NEAR ANY THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

$$

VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...YOUTUBE...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/TUCSON






000
FXUS65 KPSR 191941
AFDPSR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PHOENIX AZ
1241 PM MST SUN OCT 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY MOVE THROUGH THE AREA
TONIGHT...BRINGING A CHANCE OF MOUNTAIN SHOWERS AND STORMS. ANOTHER
TROUGH WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA ON TUESDAY HOWEVER ONLY A FEW
CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED WITH THIS SYSTEM. CONDITIONS WILL WARM UP BY MID
WEEK INTO NEXT WEEKEND AS HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES OVERHEAD.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
CONVECTION CONTINUES TO PULSE ACROSS EASTERN ARIZONA THIS
AFTERNOON...WITH QUITE A FEW STORMS STRETCHING FROM SOUTHERN GILA
COUNTY INTO GRAHAM AND COCHISE COUNTIES. UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE
REMAINS POSITIONED ACROSS SOUTHEAST ARIZONA WITH WEAK ISENTROPIC
ASCENT SERVING AS THE FORCING MECHANISM FOR THIS ACTIVITY. JUST
ENOUGH INSTABILITY IN THE ATMOSPHERE THIS AFTERNOON TO SEE SOME
LIGHTNING OUT OF THESE STORMS. 12Z TWC AND FGZ SOUNDINGS INDICATED
NEARLY DRY-ADIABATIC LAPSE RATES IN THE MID LEVELS AND MORE RECENT
AIRCRAFT SOUNDINGS REVEAL THIS INSTABILITY IS STILL IN PLACE.

CONVECTION SHOULD CONTINUE TO EXPAND AS WE GET DEEPER INTO THE PEAK
HEATING OF THE AFTERNOON. HI-RES MODELS INDICATE MOST OF THE
ACTIVITY WILL REMAIN CONFINED THE HIGHER TERRAIN WHERE INSTABILITY
WILL BE GREATER /ALBEIT STILL MARGINAL/...YET THERE ARE A FEW
MEMBERS THAT INDICATE STORMS WILL TRY TO HOLD TOGETHER ACROSS THE
LOWER DESERTS. MODEL SOUNDINGS /AND EVEN OBSERVED AIRCRAFT SOUNDINGS
FOR THAT MATTER/ INDICATE QUITE A BIT OF WARM AIR ALOFT AS RIDGING
IS ALREADY TAKING HOLD ACROSS THE AREA ABOVE 400MB...THUS ANY STORMS
THAT DEVELOP WILL LIKELY STRUGGLE TO PERSIST FOR MORE THAN A FEW
RADAR SCANS BEFORE COLLAPSING. WILL HANG ONTO ELEVATED POPS EAST OF
PHOENIX INTO THE EARLY EVENING HOURS BUT KEEP THE FORECAST MAINLY
DRY ACROSS THE DESERTS. ONE CONCERN THAT MAY WARRANT FURTHER
ATTENTION AS WE GET DEEPER INTO THE AFTERNOON IS THE POTENTIAL FOR
PATCHY BLOWING DUST AS ISOLATED DESERT STORMS DISSIPATE THIS
AFTERNOON. I INTRODUCED A MENTION OF PATCHY BLOWING DUST ACROSS NW
PINAL COUNTY THROUGH EARLY EVENING...OTHERWISE I THINK THE THREAT IS
MINIMAL.

WEAK CYCLONIC FLOW WILL REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST ON
MONDAY...BUT WILL BE DISPLACED WELL TO THE EAST COMPARED TO TODAY.
ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE HIGHER
TERRAIN BUT THE VAST MAJORITY OF THE ACTIVITY SHOULD BE INTO NEW
MEXICO BY MONDAY AFTERNOON. ALL OF THE HI-RES MODELS AS WELL AS THE
USUALLY WET SREF GUIDANCE AGREES WITH THIS ASSESSMENT AND ASIDE FROM
A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS AROUND GLOBE/HILLTOP/ROOSEVELT...IT SHOULD BE
RELATIVELY QUIET. STRONG SUBSIDENCE IN THE 500-300MB LAYER SHOULD
ALSO LIMIT STORM COVERAGE/INTENSITY.

ON TO TUESDAY AS A TROUGH PRESENTLY LOCATED OVER THE PAC NW MOVES
INLAND THROUGH UTAH. A FEW DAYS AGO THIS TROUGH WAS EXPECTED TO MOVE
THROUGH PORTIONS OF ARIZONA BUT THE NORTHWARD TREND REMAINS ON
TRACK. VERY SLIM CHANCES OF SHOWERS WITH THIS SYSTEM EAST OF PHOENIX
AND VIRTUALLY NO CHANCE WHATSOEVER ACROSS THE LOWER DESERTS. SHOULD
ONLY SEE A BRIEF INCREASE IN CLOUDS DURING THE DAY ON TUESDAY
FOLLOWED BY CLEARING TUESDAY NIGHT.

LOOKING AHEAD FROM WEDNESDAY INTO THE WEEKEND...RIDGING WILL SET UP
YIELDING DRY WEATHER ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA.
MEANWHILE...TEMPERATURES WILL BEGIN AN UPWARD CLIMB INTO THE MID 90S
WHICH IS JUST ABOUT 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL FOR LATE OCTOBER. THE
RIDGE WILL BREAK DOWN BY SATURDAY/SUNDAY YIELDING SLIGHTLY COOLER
TEMPERATURES BUT STILL WARMER THAN NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION...
SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA INCLUDING KPHX...KIWA AND KSDL...
MID AND HIGH CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL
LINGER THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON WITH CLEARING SKIES THIS EVENING.
ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL REMAIN TO THE EAST AND NORTH
OF THE PHOENIX AREA...STAYING CONFINED TO THE HIGHER TERRAIN AREAS.

SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA AND SOUTHWEST ARIZONA INCLUDING KIPL AND KBLH...
MAINLY CLEAR SKIES WITH LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS EXPECTED AND NO
AVIATION IMPACTS THROUGH THE PERIOD.

AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDED TAFS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...
A PAIR OF LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS PASSING THROUGH THE AREA WILL BRING A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS TO THE HIGHER TERRAIN
AREAS EAST OF PHOENIX...WITH THE BEST CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION ON
MONDAY AND TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. A GRADUAL DRYING TREND IS
EXPECTED THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD...WITH MINIMUM HUMIDITIES IN
THE LOWER DESERTS RANGING FROM AROUND 20 PERCENT ON TUESDAY TO THE
LOW TO MID TEENS ON SATURDAY. WINDS WILL BE GENERALLY LIGHT AND
FOLLOW TYPICAL DIURNAL PATTERNS EACH DAY.

&&

.PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

AZ...NONE.

CA...NONE.

&&

$$

VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/PHOENIX

DISCUSSION...LEINS
AVIATION...KUHLMAN
FIRE WEATHER...MCLANE/CB





000
FXUS65 KPSR 191941
AFDPSR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PHOENIX AZ
1241 PM MST SUN OCT 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY MOVE THROUGH THE AREA
TONIGHT...BRINGING A CHANCE OF MOUNTAIN SHOWERS AND STORMS. ANOTHER
TROUGH WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA ON TUESDAY HOWEVER ONLY A FEW
CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED WITH THIS SYSTEM. CONDITIONS WILL WARM UP BY MID
WEEK INTO NEXT WEEKEND AS HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES OVERHEAD.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
CONVECTION CONTINUES TO PULSE ACROSS EASTERN ARIZONA THIS
AFTERNOON...WITH QUITE A FEW STORMS STRETCHING FROM SOUTHERN GILA
COUNTY INTO GRAHAM AND COCHISE COUNTIES. UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE
REMAINS POSITIONED ACROSS SOUTHEAST ARIZONA WITH WEAK ISENTROPIC
ASCENT SERVING AS THE FORCING MECHANISM FOR THIS ACTIVITY. JUST
ENOUGH INSTABILITY IN THE ATMOSPHERE THIS AFTERNOON TO SEE SOME
LIGHTNING OUT OF THESE STORMS. 12Z TWC AND FGZ SOUNDINGS INDICATED
NEARLY DRY-ADIABATIC LAPSE RATES IN THE MID LEVELS AND MORE RECENT
AIRCRAFT SOUNDINGS REVEAL THIS INSTABILITY IS STILL IN PLACE.

CONVECTION SHOULD CONTINUE TO EXPAND AS WE GET DEEPER INTO THE PEAK
HEATING OF THE AFTERNOON. HI-RES MODELS INDICATE MOST OF THE
ACTIVITY WILL REMAIN CONFINED THE HIGHER TERRAIN WHERE INSTABILITY
WILL BE GREATER /ALBEIT STILL MARGINAL/...YET THERE ARE A FEW
MEMBERS THAT INDICATE STORMS WILL TRY TO HOLD TOGETHER ACROSS THE
LOWER DESERTS. MODEL SOUNDINGS /AND EVEN OBSERVED AIRCRAFT SOUNDINGS
FOR THAT MATTER/ INDICATE QUITE A BIT OF WARM AIR ALOFT AS RIDGING
IS ALREADY TAKING HOLD ACROSS THE AREA ABOVE 400MB...THUS ANY STORMS
THAT DEVELOP WILL LIKELY STRUGGLE TO PERSIST FOR MORE THAN A FEW
RADAR SCANS BEFORE COLLAPSING. WILL HANG ONTO ELEVATED POPS EAST OF
PHOENIX INTO THE EARLY EVENING HOURS BUT KEEP THE FORECAST MAINLY
DRY ACROSS THE DESERTS. ONE CONCERN THAT MAY WARRANT FURTHER
ATTENTION AS WE GET DEEPER INTO THE AFTERNOON IS THE POTENTIAL FOR
PATCHY BLOWING DUST AS ISOLATED DESERT STORMS DISSIPATE THIS
AFTERNOON. I INTRODUCED A MENTION OF PATCHY BLOWING DUST ACROSS NW
PINAL COUNTY THROUGH EARLY EVENING...OTHERWISE I THINK THE THREAT IS
MINIMAL.

WEAK CYCLONIC FLOW WILL REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST ON
MONDAY...BUT WILL BE DISPLACED WELL TO THE EAST COMPARED TO TODAY.
ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE HIGHER
TERRAIN BUT THE VAST MAJORITY OF THE ACTIVITY SHOULD BE INTO NEW
MEXICO BY MONDAY AFTERNOON. ALL OF THE HI-RES MODELS AS WELL AS THE
USUALLY WET SREF GUIDANCE AGREES WITH THIS ASSESSMENT AND ASIDE FROM
A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS AROUND GLOBE/HILLTOP/ROOSEVELT...IT SHOULD BE
RELATIVELY QUIET. STRONG SUBSIDENCE IN THE 500-300MB LAYER SHOULD
ALSO LIMIT STORM COVERAGE/INTENSITY.

ON TO TUESDAY AS A TROUGH PRESENTLY LOCATED OVER THE PAC NW MOVES
INLAND THROUGH UTAH. A FEW DAYS AGO THIS TROUGH WAS EXPECTED TO MOVE
THROUGH PORTIONS OF ARIZONA BUT THE NORTHWARD TREND REMAINS ON
TRACK. VERY SLIM CHANCES OF SHOWERS WITH THIS SYSTEM EAST OF PHOENIX
AND VIRTUALLY NO CHANCE WHATSOEVER ACROSS THE LOWER DESERTS. SHOULD
ONLY SEE A BRIEF INCREASE IN CLOUDS DURING THE DAY ON TUESDAY
FOLLOWED BY CLEARING TUESDAY NIGHT.

LOOKING AHEAD FROM WEDNESDAY INTO THE WEEKEND...RIDGING WILL SET UP
YIELDING DRY WEATHER ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA.
MEANWHILE...TEMPERATURES WILL BEGIN AN UPWARD CLIMB INTO THE MID 90S
WHICH IS JUST ABOUT 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL FOR LATE OCTOBER. THE
RIDGE WILL BREAK DOWN BY SATURDAY/SUNDAY YIELDING SLIGHTLY COOLER
TEMPERATURES BUT STILL WARMER THAN NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION...
SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA INCLUDING KPHX...KIWA AND KSDL...
MID AND HIGH CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL
LINGER THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON WITH CLEARING SKIES THIS EVENING.
ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL REMAIN TO THE EAST AND NORTH
OF THE PHOENIX AREA...STAYING CONFINED TO THE HIGHER TERRAIN AREAS.

SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA AND SOUTHWEST ARIZONA INCLUDING KIPL AND KBLH...
MAINLY CLEAR SKIES WITH LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS EXPECTED AND NO
AVIATION IMPACTS THROUGH THE PERIOD.

AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDED TAFS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...
A PAIR OF LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS PASSING THROUGH THE AREA WILL BRING A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS TO THE HIGHER TERRAIN
AREAS EAST OF PHOENIX...WITH THE BEST CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION ON
MONDAY AND TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. A GRADUAL DRYING TREND IS
EXPECTED THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD...WITH MINIMUM HUMIDITIES IN
THE LOWER DESERTS RANGING FROM AROUND 20 PERCENT ON TUESDAY TO THE
LOW TO MID TEENS ON SATURDAY. WINDS WILL BE GENERALLY LIGHT AND
FOLLOW TYPICAL DIURNAL PATTERNS EACH DAY.

&&

.PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

AZ...NONE.

CA...NONE.

&&

$$

VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/PHOENIX

DISCUSSION...LEINS
AVIATION...KUHLMAN
FIRE WEATHER...MCLANE/CB






000
FXUS65 KFGZ 191705
AFDFGZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ
1000 AM MST SUN OCT 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...EXPECT SCATTERED AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TODAY AND MONDAY...WITH DRYING DEVELOPING FROM THE
WEST ON TUESDAY. DRY CONDITIONS AND A WARMING TREND WILL THEN
DEVELOP STARTING ON WEDNESDAY INTO NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.DISCUSSION...A WEAK LOW PRESSURE CENTER MOVING SLOWLY EASTWARD
ALONG THE MEXICAN BORDER REGION HAS PRODUCED SHOWERS AND A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF NORTHERN ARIZONA THIS MORNING. DAY
TIME HEATING OF THIS MOIST AND MODERATELY UNSTABLE AIR MASS ALONG
WITH SOME UPPER LEVEL FORCING WILL KEEP GOOD CHANCES FOR SHOWER
ACTIVITY INTO THE EARLY EVENING HOURS. THE HIGHEST CHANCES FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE FORECAST MAINLY ALONG THE MOGOLLON RIM
REGION FROM FLAGSTAFF TO WINDOW ROCK.

DRYING DEVELOPS FROM THE WEST ON TUESDAY AS A TROUGH MOVES THROUGH
THE GREAT BASIN. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN BEHIND THIS TROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE WEEK. RISING HEIGHTS AND INCREASING SUBSIDENCE OR
DOWNWARD MOVING AIR...WILL PRODUCE SEVERAL WARM AND SUNNY DAYS
HEADING INTO NEXT WEEKEND.

WE MADE A SMALL UPDATE TO THE FIRST FORECAST PERIOD WITH HIGHER
CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION AND INCREASED CLOUD COVERAGE.

&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 18Z PACKAGE...EXPECT SCT -SHRA AND ISOLD -TSRA
MOSTLY SOUTH AND EAST OF A LINE FROM KPRC-KFLG-KRQE. BRIEF MVFR
CONDITIONS POSSIBLE UNDER THE HEAVIEST SHOWERS. ONLY ISOLD SHOWERS
EXPECTED AFT 02Z MONDAY. AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR
AMENDMENTS.

&&

.FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC.........BOHLIN
AVIATION.......BAK

FOR NORTHERN ARIZONA WEATHER INFORMATION VISIT
WEATHER.GOV/FLAGSTAFF







000
FXUS65 KFGZ 191705
AFDFGZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ
1000 AM MST SUN OCT 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...EXPECT SCATTERED AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TODAY AND MONDAY...WITH DRYING DEVELOPING FROM THE
WEST ON TUESDAY. DRY CONDITIONS AND A WARMING TREND WILL THEN
DEVELOP STARTING ON WEDNESDAY INTO NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.DISCUSSION...A WEAK LOW PRESSURE CENTER MOVING SLOWLY EASTWARD
ALONG THE MEXICAN BORDER REGION HAS PRODUCED SHOWERS AND A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF NORTHERN ARIZONA THIS MORNING. DAY
TIME HEATING OF THIS MOIST AND MODERATELY UNSTABLE AIR MASS ALONG
WITH SOME UPPER LEVEL FORCING WILL KEEP GOOD CHANCES FOR SHOWER
ACTIVITY INTO THE EARLY EVENING HOURS. THE HIGHEST CHANCES FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE FORECAST MAINLY ALONG THE MOGOLLON RIM
REGION FROM FLAGSTAFF TO WINDOW ROCK.

DRYING DEVELOPS FROM THE WEST ON TUESDAY AS A TROUGH MOVES THROUGH
THE GREAT BASIN. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN BEHIND THIS TROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE WEEK. RISING HEIGHTS AND INCREASING SUBSIDENCE OR
DOWNWARD MOVING AIR...WILL PRODUCE SEVERAL WARM AND SUNNY DAYS
HEADING INTO NEXT WEEKEND.

WE MADE A SMALL UPDATE TO THE FIRST FORECAST PERIOD WITH HIGHER
CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION AND INCREASED CLOUD COVERAGE.

&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 18Z PACKAGE...EXPECT SCT -SHRA AND ISOLD -TSRA
MOSTLY SOUTH AND EAST OF A LINE FROM KPRC-KFLG-KRQE. BRIEF MVFR
CONDITIONS POSSIBLE UNDER THE HEAVIEST SHOWERS. ONLY ISOLD SHOWERS
EXPECTED AFT 02Z MONDAY. AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR
AMENDMENTS.

&&

.FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC.........BOHLIN
AVIATION.......BAK

FOR NORTHERN ARIZONA WEATHER INFORMATION VISIT
WEATHER.GOV/FLAGSTAFF






000
FXUS65 KPSR 191622
AFDPSR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PHOENIX AZ
922 AM MST SUN OCT 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL SLOWLY MOVE THROUGH THE AREA TODAY INTO
TONIGHT...BRINGING A CHANCE OF MOUNTAIN SHOWERS AND STORMS. ANOTHER
TROUGH WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA ON TUESDAY HOWEVER ONLY A FEW
CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED WITH THIS SYSTEM. CONDITIONS WILL WARM UP BY MID
WEEK INTO NEXT WEEKEND AS HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES OVERHEAD.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
SHEARED UPPER LOW REMAINS OVER THE AREA THIS MORNING. UPPER AIR
ANALYSIS REVEALS THE 250-300MB LOW IS OVER NORTHEAST ARIZONA WHILE
THE 500-700MB LOW IS DISPLACED OVER THE AZ/MEX BORDER. RADAR IMAGERY
REVEALS A FEW SHOWERS AND STORMS HAVE FORMED IN THE MOUNTAINS
NORTH/EAST OF PHOENIX...EVEN SEEING A BIT OF THUNDER ACROSS THE AREA
THIS MORNING. NOT REALLY SURPRISING AS BOTH TWC AND FGZ 12Z
SOUNDINGS DEPICTED NEARLY DRY-ADIABATIC LAPSE RATES IN THE MID
LEVELS.

FOR THE REST OF TODAY...SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP AND EXPAND
IN THE MOUNTAINS AND WITH WEAK EASTERLY FLOW ALOFT...THEY MAY TRY
AND DRIFT INTO THE LOWER DESERTS. WITH VERY MEAGER INSTABILITY ON
THE ORDER OF 100 J/KG ACROSS THE DESERTS...CONVECTION WILL STRUGGLE
FROM PHOENIX WESTWARD. THE HRRR IS CERTAINLY THE MOST AGGRESSIVE OF
ALL THE CONVECTIVE ALLOWING MODELS AND SUGGESTED THERE SHOULD HAVE
BEEN PRECIP ACROSS THE NORTH VALLEY AROUND 15Z THIS MORNING. THE
LOCAL WRFS...LOCAL WRF ENSEMBLE...SSEO...AND SREF ALL HAVE A MORE
REALISTIC ADVERTISEMENT OF STORM CHANCES LATER AND THIS MATCHES WHAT
WAS ALREADY IN THE FORECAST. ONLY MAKING MINOR REVISIONS TO THE
ORIENTATION OF POPS FOR THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING. STORMS COULD LINGER
SHORTLY AFTER 00Z BEFORE DAYTIME HEATING IS COMPLETELY LOST BUT
OTHERWISE THE STORMS SHOULD DISSIPATE QUICKLY THIS EVENING.

TEMPS LOOK GOOD...ANOTHER DAY AROUND 90 LOOKS LIKE A SAFE BET. NO
OTHER CHANGES FORTHCOMING.

&&

.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
MONDAY...
ALTHOUGH THE LAGGING AND SLOWER MOVING 500 MB TROF FINALLY SHIFTS
INTO SOUTHEAST AZ MONDAY AFTERNOON...THE 300/250 MB CIRCULATION
CENTERS ACCELERATE INTO EASTERN NEW MEXICO AND THE TEXAS PANHANDLE
RESULTING IN STRONG UPPER LEVEL SUBSIDENCE OVER AZ. THEREFORE MOSTLY
CLEAR SKIES WITH SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES ARE
FORECAST OVER OUR AREA...SOUTHEAST CA TO SOUTH CENTRAL AZ.

TUESDAY...
THE NEXT IN A SERIES OF PACIFIC WEATHER SYSTEMS WILL MOVE INTO
WESTERN STATES ON TUESDAY. ANY PRECIP WILL BE CONFINED TO PARTS OF
UTAH AND ALONG THE EASTERN AZ BORDER...BUT MAINLY IN NEW MEXICO.
THEREFORE EXCEPT FOR SOME HIGH CLOUDS...FORECASTS WILL REMAIN DRY
WITH SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES.

WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...
A STRONG HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BEGIN BUILDING OVER THE FORECAST
AREA WEDNESDAY...THEN STRENGTHEN INTO THE WEEKEND. THEREFORE NEARLY
CLOUDLESS SKIES ARE EXPECTED WITH MUCH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR
LATE OCTOBER.


&&

.AVIATION...
SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA INCLUDING KPHX...KIWA AND KSDL...
MID AND HIGH CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL
LINGER THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON WITH CLEARING SKIES THIS EVENING.
ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL REMAIN TO THE EAST AND NORTH
OF THE PHOENIX AREA...STAYING CONFINED TO THE HIGHER TERRAIN AREAS.

SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA AND SOUTHWEST ARIZONA INCLUDING KIPL AND KBLH...
MAINLY CLEAR SKIES WITH LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS EXPECTED AND NO
AVIATION IMPACTS THROUGH THE PERIOD.

AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDED TAFS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...
A PAIR OF LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS PASSING THROUGH THE AREA WILL BRING A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS TO THE HIGHER TERRAIN
AREAS EAST OF PHOENIX...WITH THE BEST CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION ON
MONDAY AND TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. A GRADUAL DRYING TREND IS
EXPECTED THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD...WITH MINIMUM HUMIDITIES IN
THE LOWER DESERTS RANGING FROM AROUND 20 PERCENT ON TUESDAY TO THE
LOW TO MID TEENS ON SATURDAY. WINDS WILL BE GENERALLY LIGHT AND
FOLLOW TYPICAL DIURNAL PATTERNS EACH DAY.

&&

.PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

AZ...NONE.

CA...NONE.

&&

$$

VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/PHOENIX

DISCUSSION...LEINS/VASQUEZ
AVIATION...KUHLMAN
FIRE WEATHER...MCLANE/CB






000
FXUS65 KPSR 191622
AFDPSR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PHOENIX AZ
922 AM MST SUN OCT 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL SLOWLY MOVE THROUGH THE AREA TODAY INTO
TONIGHT...BRINGING A CHANCE OF MOUNTAIN SHOWERS AND STORMS. ANOTHER
TROUGH WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA ON TUESDAY HOWEVER ONLY A FEW
CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED WITH THIS SYSTEM. CONDITIONS WILL WARM UP BY MID
WEEK INTO NEXT WEEKEND AS HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES OVERHEAD.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
SHEARED UPPER LOW REMAINS OVER THE AREA THIS MORNING. UPPER AIR
ANALYSIS REVEALS THE 250-300MB LOW IS OVER NORTHEAST ARIZONA WHILE
THE 500-700MB LOW IS DISPLACED OVER THE AZ/MEX BORDER. RADAR IMAGERY
REVEALS A FEW SHOWERS AND STORMS HAVE FORMED IN THE MOUNTAINS
NORTH/EAST OF PHOENIX...EVEN SEEING A BIT OF THUNDER ACROSS THE AREA
THIS MORNING. NOT REALLY SURPRISING AS BOTH TWC AND FGZ 12Z
SOUNDINGS DEPICTED NEARLY DRY-ADIABATIC LAPSE RATES IN THE MID
LEVELS.

FOR THE REST OF TODAY...SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP AND EXPAND
IN THE MOUNTAINS AND WITH WEAK EASTERLY FLOW ALOFT...THEY MAY TRY
AND DRIFT INTO THE LOWER DESERTS. WITH VERY MEAGER INSTABILITY ON
THE ORDER OF 100 J/KG ACROSS THE DESERTS...CONVECTION WILL STRUGGLE
FROM PHOENIX WESTWARD. THE HRRR IS CERTAINLY THE MOST AGGRESSIVE OF
ALL THE CONVECTIVE ALLOWING MODELS AND SUGGESTED THERE SHOULD HAVE
BEEN PRECIP ACROSS THE NORTH VALLEY AROUND 15Z THIS MORNING. THE
LOCAL WRFS...LOCAL WRF ENSEMBLE...SSEO...AND SREF ALL HAVE A MORE
REALISTIC ADVERTISEMENT OF STORM CHANCES LATER AND THIS MATCHES WHAT
WAS ALREADY IN THE FORECAST. ONLY MAKING MINOR REVISIONS TO THE
ORIENTATION OF POPS FOR THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING. STORMS COULD LINGER
SHORTLY AFTER 00Z BEFORE DAYTIME HEATING IS COMPLETELY LOST BUT
OTHERWISE THE STORMS SHOULD DISSIPATE QUICKLY THIS EVENING.

TEMPS LOOK GOOD...ANOTHER DAY AROUND 90 LOOKS LIKE A SAFE BET. NO
OTHER CHANGES FORTHCOMING.

&&

.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
MONDAY...
ALTHOUGH THE LAGGING AND SLOWER MOVING 500 MB TROF FINALLY SHIFTS
INTO SOUTHEAST AZ MONDAY AFTERNOON...THE 300/250 MB CIRCULATION
CENTERS ACCELERATE INTO EASTERN NEW MEXICO AND THE TEXAS PANHANDLE
RESULTING IN STRONG UPPER LEVEL SUBSIDENCE OVER AZ. THEREFORE MOSTLY
CLEAR SKIES WITH SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES ARE
FORECAST OVER OUR AREA...SOUTHEAST CA TO SOUTH CENTRAL AZ.

TUESDAY...
THE NEXT IN A SERIES OF PACIFIC WEATHER SYSTEMS WILL MOVE INTO
WESTERN STATES ON TUESDAY. ANY PRECIP WILL BE CONFINED TO PARTS OF
UTAH AND ALONG THE EASTERN AZ BORDER...BUT MAINLY IN NEW MEXICO.
THEREFORE EXCEPT FOR SOME HIGH CLOUDS...FORECASTS WILL REMAIN DRY
WITH SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES.

WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...
A STRONG HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BEGIN BUILDING OVER THE FORECAST
AREA WEDNESDAY...THEN STRENGTHEN INTO THE WEEKEND. THEREFORE NEARLY
CLOUDLESS SKIES ARE EXPECTED WITH MUCH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR
LATE OCTOBER.


&&

.AVIATION...
SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA INCLUDING KPHX...KIWA AND KSDL...
MID AND HIGH CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL
LINGER THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON WITH CLEARING SKIES THIS EVENING.
ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL REMAIN TO THE EAST AND NORTH
OF THE PHOENIX AREA...STAYING CONFINED TO THE HIGHER TERRAIN AREAS.

SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA AND SOUTHWEST ARIZONA INCLUDING KIPL AND KBLH...
MAINLY CLEAR SKIES WITH LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS EXPECTED AND NO
AVIATION IMPACTS THROUGH THE PERIOD.

AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDED TAFS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...
A PAIR OF LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS PASSING THROUGH THE AREA WILL BRING A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS TO THE HIGHER TERRAIN
AREAS EAST OF PHOENIX...WITH THE BEST CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION ON
MONDAY AND TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. A GRADUAL DRYING TREND IS
EXPECTED THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD...WITH MINIMUM HUMIDITIES IN
THE LOWER DESERTS RANGING FROM AROUND 20 PERCENT ON TUESDAY TO THE
LOW TO MID TEENS ON SATURDAY. WINDS WILL BE GENERALLY LIGHT AND
FOLLOW TYPICAL DIURNAL PATTERNS EACH DAY.

&&

.PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

AZ...NONE.

CA...NONE.

&&

$$

VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/PHOENIX

DISCUSSION...LEINS/VASQUEZ
AVIATION...KUHLMAN
FIRE WEATHER...MCLANE/CB






000
FXUS65 KPSR 191622
AFDPSR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PHOENIX AZ
922 AM MST SUN OCT 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL SLOWLY MOVE THROUGH THE AREA TODAY INTO
TONIGHT...BRINGING A CHANCE OF MOUNTAIN SHOWERS AND STORMS. ANOTHER
TROUGH WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA ON TUESDAY HOWEVER ONLY A FEW
CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED WITH THIS SYSTEM. CONDITIONS WILL WARM UP BY MID
WEEK INTO NEXT WEEKEND AS HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES OVERHEAD.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
SHEARED UPPER LOW REMAINS OVER THE AREA THIS MORNING. UPPER AIR
ANALYSIS REVEALS THE 250-300MB LOW IS OVER NORTHEAST ARIZONA WHILE
THE 500-700MB LOW IS DISPLACED OVER THE AZ/MEX BORDER. RADAR IMAGERY
REVEALS A FEW SHOWERS AND STORMS HAVE FORMED IN THE MOUNTAINS
NORTH/EAST OF PHOENIX...EVEN SEEING A BIT OF THUNDER ACROSS THE AREA
THIS MORNING. NOT REALLY SURPRISING AS BOTH TWC AND FGZ 12Z
SOUNDINGS DEPICTED NEARLY DRY-ADIABATIC LAPSE RATES IN THE MID
LEVELS.

FOR THE REST OF TODAY...SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP AND EXPAND
IN THE MOUNTAINS AND WITH WEAK EASTERLY FLOW ALOFT...THEY MAY TRY
AND DRIFT INTO THE LOWER DESERTS. WITH VERY MEAGER INSTABILITY ON
THE ORDER OF 100 J/KG ACROSS THE DESERTS...CONVECTION WILL STRUGGLE
FROM PHOENIX WESTWARD. THE HRRR IS CERTAINLY THE MOST AGGRESSIVE OF
ALL THE CONVECTIVE ALLOWING MODELS AND SUGGESTED THERE SHOULD HAVE
BEEN PRECIP ACROSS THE NORTH VALLEY AROUND 15Z THIS MORNING. THE
LOCAL WRFS...LOCAL WRF ENSEMBLE...SSEO...AND SREF ALL HAVE A MORE
REALISTIC ADVERTISEMENT OF STORM CHANCES LATER AND THIS MATCHES WHAT
WAS ALREADY IN THE FORECAST. ONLY MAKING MINOR REVISIONS TO THE
ORIENTATION OF POPS FOR THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING. STORMS COULD LINGER
SHORTLY AFTER 00Z BEFORE DAYTIME HEATING IS COMPLETELY LOST BUT
OTHERWISE THE STORMS SHOULD DISSIPATE QUICKLY THIS EVENING.

TEMPS LOOK GOOD...ANOTHER DAY AROUND 90 LOOKS LIKE A SAFE BET. NO
OTHER CHANGES FORTHCOMING.

&&

.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
MONDAY...
ALTHOUGH THE LAGGING AND SLOWER MOVING 500 MB TROF FINALLY SHIFTS
INTO SOUTHEAST AZ MONDAY AFTERNOON...THE 300/250 MB CIRCULATION
CENTERS ACCELERATE INTO EASTERN NEW MEXICO AND THE TEXAS PANHANDLE
RESULTING IN STRONG UPPER LEVEL SUBSIDENCE OVER AZ. THEREFORE MOSTLY
CLEAR SKIES WITH SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES ARE
FORECAST OVER OUR AREA...SOUTHEAST CA TO SOUTH CENTRAL AZ.

TUESDAY...
THE NEXT IN A SERIES OF PACIFIC WEATHER SYSTEMS WILL MOVE INTO
WESTERN STATES ON TUESDAY. ANY PRECIP WILL BE CONFINED TO PARTS OF
UTAH AND ALONG THE EASTERN AZ BORDER...BUT MAINLY IN NEW MEXICO.
THEREFORE EXCEPT FOR SOME HIGH CLOUDS...FORECASTS WILL REMAIN DRY
WITH SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES.

WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...
A STRONG HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BEGIN BUILDING OVER THE FORECAST
AREA WEDNESDAY...THEN STRENGTHEN INTO THE WEEKEND. THEREFORE NEARLY
CLOUDLESS SKIES ARE EXPECTED WITH MUCH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR
LATE OCTOBER.


&&

.AVIATION...
SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA INCLUDING KPHX...KIWA AND KSDL...
MID AND HIGH CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL
LINGER THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON WITH CLEARING SKIES THIS EVENING.
ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL REMAIN TO THE EAST AND NORTH
OF THE PHOENIX AREA...STAYING CONFINED TO THE HIGHER TERRAIN AREAS.

SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA AND SOUTHWEST ARIZONA INCLUDING KIPL AND KBLH...
MAINLY CLEAR SKIES WITH LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS EXPECTED AND NO
AVIATION IMPACTS THROUGH THE PERIOD.

AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDED TAFS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...
A PAIR OF LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS PASSING THROUGH THE AREA WILL BRING A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS TO THE HIGHER TERRAIN
AREAS EAST OF PHOENIX...WITH THE BEST CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION ON
MONDAY AND TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. A GRADUAL DRYING TREND IS
EXPECTED THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD...WITH MINIMUM HUMIDITIES IN
THE LOWER DESERTS RANGING FROM AROUND 20 PERCENT ON TUESDAY TO THE
LOW TO MID TEENS ON SATURDAY. WINDS WILL BE GENERALLY LIGHT AND
FOLLOW TYPICAL DIURNAL PATTERNS EACH DAY.

&&

.PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

AZ...NONE.

CA...NONE.

&&

$$

VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/PHOENIX

DISCUSSION...LEINS/VASQUEZ
AVIATION...KUHLMAN
FIRE WEATHER...MCLANE/CB






000
FXUS65 KPSR 191622
AFDPSR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PHOENIX AZ
922 AM MST SUN OCT 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL SLOWLY MOVE THROUGH THE AREA TODAY INTO
TONIGHT...BRINGING A CHANCE OF MOUNTAIN SHOWERS AND STORMS. ANOTHER
TROUGH WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA ON TUESDAY HOWEVER ONLY A FEW
CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED WITH THIS SYSTEM. CONDITIONS WILL WARM UP BY MID
WEEK INTO NEXT WEEKEND AS HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES OVERHEAD.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
SHEARED UPPER LOW REMAINS OVER THE AREA THIS MORNING. UPPER AIR
ANALYSIS REVEALS THE 250-300MB LOW IS OVER NORTHEAST ARIZONA WHILE
THE 500-700MB LOW IS DISPLACED OVER THE AZ/MEX BORDER. RADAR IMAGERY
REVEALS A FEW SHOWERS AND STORMS HAVE FORMED IN THE MOUNTAINS
NORTH/EAST OF PHOENIX...EVEN SEEING A BIT OF THUNDER ACROSS THE AREA
THIS MORNING. NOT REALLY SURPRISING AS BOTH TWC AND FGZ 12Z
SOUNDINGS DEPICTED NEARLY DRY-ADIABATIC LAPSE RATES IN THE MID
LEVELS.

FOR THE REST OF TODAY...SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP AND EXPAND
IN THE MOUNTAINS AND WITH WEAK EASTERLY FLOW ALOFT...THEY MAY TRY
AND DRIFT INTO THE LOWER DESERTS. WITH VERY MEAGER INSTABILITY ON
THE ORDER OF 100 J/KG ACROSS THE DESERTS...CONVECTION WILL STRUGGLE
FROM PHOENIX WESTWARD. THE HRRR IS CERTAINLY THE MOST AGGRESSIVE OF
ALL THE CONVECTIVE ALLOWING MODELS AND SUGGESTED THERE SHOULD HAVE
BEEN PRECIP ACROSS THE NORTH VALLEY AROUND 15Z THIS MORNING. THE
LOCAL WRFS...LOCAL WRF ENSEMBLE...SSEO...AND SREF ALL HAVE A MORE
REALISTIC ADVERTISEMENT OF STORM CHANCES LATER AND THIS MATCHES WHAT
WAS ALREADY IN THE FORECAST. ONLY MAKING MINOR REVISIONS TO THE
ORIENTATION OF POPS FOR THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING. STORMS COULD LINGER
SHORTLY AFTER 00Z BEFORE DAYTIME HEATING IS COMPLETELY LOST BUT
OTHERWISE THE STORMS SHOULD DISSIPATE QUICKLY THIS EVENING.

TEMPS LOOK GOOD...ANOTHER DAY AROUND 90 LOOKS LIKE A SAFE BET. NO
OTHER CHANGES FORTHCOMING.

&&

.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
MONDAY...
ALTHOUGH THE LAGGING AND SLOWER MOVING 500 MB TROF FINALLY SHIFTS
INTO SOUTHEAST AZ MONDAY AFTERNOON...THE 300/250 MB CIRCULATION
CENTERS ACCELERATE INTO EASTERN NEW MEXICO AND THE TEXAS PANHANDLE
RESULTING IN STRONG UPPER LEVEL SUBSIDENCE OVER AZ. THEREFORE MOSTLY
CLEAR SKIES WITH SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES ARE
FORECAST OVER OUR AREA...SOUTHEAST CA TO SOUTH CENTRAL AZ.

TUESDAY...
THE NEXT IN A SERIES OF PACIFIC WEATHER SYSTEMS WILL MOVE INTO
WESTERN STATES ON TUESDAY. ANY PRECIP WILL BE CONFINED TO PARTS OF
UTAH AND ALONG THE EASTERN AZ BORDER...BUT MAINLY IN NEW MEXICO.
THEREFORE EXCEPT FOR SOME HIGH CLOUDS...FORECASTS WILL REMAIN DRY
WITH SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES.

WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...
A STRONG HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BEGIN BUILDING OVER THE FORECAST
AREA WEDNESDAY...THEN STRENGTHEN INTO THE WEEKEND. THEREFORE NEARLY
CLOUDLESS SKIES ARE EXPECTED WITH MUCH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR
LATE OCTOBER.


&&

.AVIATION...
SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA INCLUDING KPHX...KIWA AND KSDL...
MID AND HIGH CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL
LINGER THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON WITH CLEARING SKIES THIS EVENING.
ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL REMAIN TO THE EAST AND NORTH
OF THE PHOENIX AREA...STAYING CONFINED TO THE HIGHER TERRAIN AREAS.

SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA AND SOUTHWEST ARIZONA INCLUDING KIPL AND KBLH...
MAINLY CLEAR SKIES WITH LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS EXPECTED AND NO
AVIATION IMPACTS THROUGH THE PERIOD.

AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDED TAFS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...
A PAIR OF LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS PASSING THROUGH THE AREA WILL BRING A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS TO THE HIGHER TERRAIN
AREAS EAST OF PHOENIX...WITH THE BEST CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION ON
MONDAY AND TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. A GRADUAL DRYING TREND IS
EXPECTED THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD...WITH MINIMUM HUMIDITIES IN
THE LOWER DESERTS RANGING FROM AROUND 20 PERCENT ON TUESDAY TO THE
LOW TO MID TEENS ON SATURDAY. WINDS WILL BE GENERALLY LIGHT AND
FOLLOW TYPICAL DIURNAL PATTERNS EACH DAY.

&&

.PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

AZ...NONE.

CA...NONE.

&&

$$

VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/PHOENIX

DISCUSSION...LEINS/VASQUEZ
AVIATION...KUHLMAN
FIRE WEATHER...MCLANE/CB






000
FXUS65 KTWC 191546
AFDTWC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ
846 AM MST SUN OCT 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...A WEAK WEATHER SYSTEM WILL BRING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TODAY...ESPECIALLY EAST OF TUCSON. WE WILL KEEP A
CHANCE OF SHOWERS IN THE FORECAST UNTIL IT MOVES EAST OF THE REGION
BY WEDNESDAY. STRONG HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BRING DRIER CONDITIONS
THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK ALONG WITH MUCH WARMER TEMPERATURES.

&&

.DISCUSSION...RADAR WAS DETECTING ISOLATED SHOWERS AND A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS OUR EASTERN CWA THIS MORNING. LATEST SHORT-TERM
MODELS SHOWED ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
DEVELOPING THIS AFTERNOON FROM NEAR TUCSON AND NOGALES EASTWARD.
HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS SUGGESTED THAT OUTFLOW FROM THESE SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS COULD BECOME ORGANIZED ENOUGH TO PRODUCE AREAS OF
BLOWING DUST ACROSS MAINLY PINAL COUNTY LATE THIS AFTERNOON OR EARLY
THIS EVENING. THAT SAID...WILL INTRODUCE SOME BLOWING DUST IN THE
GRIDDED FORECAST FOR SOUTHEAST PINAL COUNTY ON THE MORNING UPDATE.
OTHERWISE...CURRENT FORECAST APPEARED TO HANDLE THE TRENDS WELL.
PLEASE REFER TO THE ADDITIONAL SECTIONS FOR MORE DETAILS.
&&

.AVIATION...VALID THRU 20/18Z.
SKC-SCT CLOUDS MAINLY ABOVE 10K FT AGL SOUTH OF KTUS AND SCT-BKN
NORTH OF KTUS THROUGH 19/20Z AND THERE WILL BE ENOUGH MOISTURE FOR
ISOLD -SHRA/-TSRA EAST OF KTUS.  INCREASING CLOUDS AFT 19/20Z
BECOMING SCT-BKN AROUND 10K FT ALL AREAS WITH A CHANCE OF
-SHRA/-TSRA DEVELOPING FROM AROUND KTUS EASTWARD.  SFC WINDS
GENERALLY LESS THAN 10 KTS TODAY EXCEPT SOUTHEAST WIND TO 15 KT
EASTERN AREAS THIS AFTERNOON.  GUSTY WINDS ARE POSSIBLE IN/NEAR TSRA
THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED
FOR TAF AMENDMENTS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE MOVING INTO THE AREA IN
COMBINATION WITH A MODEST MOISTURE INCREASE WILL RESULT IN A CHANCE
OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH TUESDAY OR WEDNESDAY...MAINLY
TUCSON EASTWARD.  DRY CONDITIONS WILL THEN OCCUR AREA WIDE THE
SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK WITH SIGNIFICANTLY ABOVE NORMAL HIGH
TEMPERATURES.  20-FOOT WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE DIURNAL AND LESS THAN
15 MPH THIS WEEKEND AND INTO NEXT WEEK.  SOME GUSTY WINDS ARE
POSSIBLE NEAR ANY THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...WEAK LOW UNDERCUTTING THE LARGER SCALE RIDGE
DRIVING OUR WEATHER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...ESPECIALLY LATER TODAY
INTO THIS EVENING. CUT-OFF IMPULSE VERY SLOWLY PUSHING ACROSS THE
NORTHERN GULF OF CALIFORNIA INTO NORTHWEST SONORA THIS MORNING.
FAVORABLE UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENT FIELDS IN NORTHEAST QUADRANT AHEAD
OF THE LOW FIRING OFF CONVECTION THIS MORNING INTO EAST CENTRAL AND
NORTHEAST ARIZONA. AVAILABLE MOISTURE HAS CREPT UP TO A LITTLE OVER
.75 OF AN INCH WITH .9 TO 1 INCH IN CLOSER PROXIMITY TO THE LOW. AS
IT SLOWLY PUSHES EASTWARD TODAY A LITTLE DEEPER INTO NORTHERN SONORA
NEAR THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER...EXPECT AN ACTIVE REGION TO CONTINUE
ON THE NORTHEAST QUADRANT...BASICALLY AREAS NORTH AND EAST OF
NOGALES TO POSSIBLY INCLUDE TUCSON BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON OR EARLY
EVENING. BETTER CHANCES IN EASTERN AREAS SUCH AS COCHISE COUNTY.
SOME STORMS MAY GET A LITTLE FRISKY TODAY SO WE`LL NEED TO KEEP AN
EYE ON THE RADAR FOR POTENTIAL SMALL HAIL AND STRONG WINDS AS WELL
AS BRIEF LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN.

FAVORABLE AREA FOR CONVECTION WILL SHIFT SLOWLY EASTWARD DEEPER INTO
NEW MEXICO LATER TONIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING AS THE LOW WOBBLES
SLOWLY ACROSS NORTHERN SONORA. IT WILL REMAIN CUT OFF FOR 48 TO 72
HOURS BEFORE BEING DRAWN INTO HIGHER LATITUDE SUPPORT ENERGY LATE
TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY.

STRONG RIDGE...VERY STRONG RIDGE BUILDING IN THROUGH ARIZONA FROM
THE SOUTH LATER THIS WEEK. ECMWF HEIGHTS AND THICKNESSES SUPPORT MID
90S AS WE FLIRT WITH VERY LATE SEASON 95S FOR TIA FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY (THE LATEST 95 AT TIA IS OCT 26 IN 2001). STRENGTH OF ECMWF
PREFERRED BASED ON VERY FAVORABLE ENSEMBLE MEAN TRENDS AND
NORMALIZED STANDARD DEVIATION TRENDS OVER THE PAST 30 DAYS. SO...WE
WILL TRY TO STEAL SOME POINTS FROM MOS BY LENDING LESS WEIGHT TO
LATE OCTOBER CLIMO AND MORE TO WHAT SEASONAL THICKNESS REGRESSION
ANALYSIS ACTUALLY SUGGESTS FOR 850MB-700MB THICKNESS VALUES AROUND
165.5 TO 166.0DAM.

&&

.TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

$$

VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...YOUTUBE...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/TUCSON

MEYER/MEADOWS






000
FXUS65 KTWC 191546
AFDTWC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ
846 AM MST SUN OCT 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...A WEAK WEATHER SYSTEM WILL BRING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TODAY...ESPECIALLY EAST OF TUCSON. WE WILL KEEP A
CHANCE OF SHOWERS IN THE FORECAST UNTIL IT MOVES EAST OF THE REGION
BY WEDNESDAY. STRONG HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BRING DRIER CONDITIONS
THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK ALONG WITH MUCH WARMER TEMPERATURES.

&&

.DISCUSSION...RADAR WAS DETECTING ISOLATED SHOWERS AND A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS OUR EASTERN CWA THIS MORNING. LATEST SHORT-TERM
MODELS SHOWED ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
DEVELOPING THIS AFTERNOON FROM NEAR TUCSON AND NOGALES EASTWARD.
HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS SUGGESTED THAT OUTFLOW FROM THESE SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS COULD BECOME ORGANIZED ENOUGH TO PRODUCE AREAS OF
BLOWING DUST ACROSS MAINLY PINAL COUNTY LATE THIS AFTERNOON OR EARLY
THIS EVENING. THAT SAID...WILL INTRODUCE SOME BLOWING DUST IN THE
GRIDDED FORECAST FOR SOUTHEAST PINAL COUNTY ON THE MORNING UPDATE.
OTHERWISE...CURRENT FORECAST APPEARED TO HANDLE THE TRENDS WELL.
PLEASE REFER TO THE ADDITIONAL SECTIONS FOR MORE DETAILS.
&&

.AVIATION...VALID THRU 20/18Z.
SKC-SCT CLOUDS MAINLY ABOVE 10K FT AGL SOUTH OF KTUS AND SCT-BKN
NORTH OF KTUS THROUGH 19/20Z AND THERE WILL BE ENOUGH MOISTURE FOR
ISOLD -SHRA/-TSRA EAST OF KTUS.  INCREASING CLOUDS AFT 19/20Z
BECOMING SCT-BKN AROUND 10K FT ALL AREAS WITH A CHANCE OF
-SHRA/-TSRA DEVELOPING FROM AROUND KTUS EASTWARD.  SFC WINDS
GENERALLY LESS THAN 10 KTS TODAY EXCEPT SOUTHEAST WIND TO 15 KT
EASTERN AREAS THIS AFTERNOON.  GUSTY WINDS ARE POSSIBLE IN/NEAR TSRA
THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED
FOR TAF AMENDMENTS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE MOVING INTO THE AREA IN
COMBINATION WITH A MODEST MOISTURE INCREASE WILL RESULT IN A CHANCE
OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH TUESDAY OR WEDNESDAY...MAINLY
TUCSON EASTWARD.  DRY CONDITIONS WILL THEN OCCUR AREA WIDE THE
SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK WITH SIGNIFICANTLY ABOVE NORMAL HIGH
TEMPERATURES.  20-FOOT WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE DIURNAL AND LESS THAN
15 MPH THIS WEEKEND AND INTO NEXT WEEK.  SOME GUSTY WINDS ARE
POSSIBLE NEAR ANY THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...WEAK LOW UNDERCUTTING THE LARGER SCALE RIDGE
DRIVING OUR WEATHER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...ESPECIALLY LATER TODAY
INTO THIS EVENING. CUT-OFF IMPULSE VERY SLOWLY PUSHING ACROSS THE
NORTHERN GULF OF CALIFORNIA INTO NORTHWEST SONORA THIS MORNING.
FAVORABLE UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENT FIELDS IN NORTHEAST QUADRANT AHEAD
OF THE LOW FIRING OFF CONVECTION THIS MORNING INTO EAST CENTRAL AND
NORTHEAST ARIZONA. AVAILABLE MOISTURE HAS CREPT UP TO A LITTLE OVER
.75 OF AN INCH WITH .9 TO 1 INCH IN CLOSER PROXIMITY TO THE LOW. AS
IT SLOWLY PUSHES EASTWARD TODAY A LITTLE DEEPER INTO NORTHERN SONORA
NEAR THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER...EXPECT AN ACTIVE REGION TO CONTINUE
ON THE NORTHEAST QUADRANT...BASICALLY AREAS NORTH AND EAST OF
NOGALES TO POSSIBLY INCLUDE TUCSON BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON OR EARLY
EVENING. BETTER CHANCES IN EASTERN AREAS SUCH AS COCHISE COUNTY.
SOME STORMS MAY GET A LITTLE FRISKY TODAY SO WE`LL NEED TO KEEP AN
EYE ON THE RADAR FOR POTENTIAL SMALL HAIL AND STRONG WINDS AS WELL
AS BRIEF LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN.

FAVORABLE AREA FOR CONVECTION WILL SHIFT SLOWLY EASTWARD DEEPER INTO
NEW MEXICO LATER TONIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING AS THE LOW WOBBLES
SLOWLY ACROSS NORTHERN SONORA. IT WILL REMAIN CUT OFF FOR 48 TO 72
HOURS BEFORE BEING DRAWN INTO HIGHER LATITUDE SUPPORT ENERGY LATE
TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY.

STRONG RIDGE...VERY STRONG RIDGE BUILDING IN THROUGH ARIZONA FROM
THE SOUTH LATER THIS WEEK. ECMWF HEIGHTS AND THICKNESSES SUPPORT MID
90S AS WE FLIRT WITH VERY LATE SEASON 95S FOR TIA FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY (THE LATEST 95 AT TIA IS OCT 26 IN 2001). STRENGTH OF ECMWF
PREFERRED BASED ON VERY FAVORABLE ENSEMBLE MEAN TRENDS AND
NORMALIZED STANDARD DEVIATION TRENDS OVER THE PAST 30 DAYS. SO...WE
WILL TRY TO STEAL SOME POINTS FROM MOS BY LENDING LESS WEIGHT TO
LATE OCTOBER CLIMO AND MORE TO WHAT SEASONAL THICKNESS REGRESSION
ANALYSIS ACTUALLY SUGGESTS FOR 850MB-700MB THICKNESS VALUES AROUND
165.5 TO 166.0DAM.

&&

.TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

$$

VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...YOUTUBE...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/TUCSON

MEYER/MEADOWS







000
FXUS65 KPSR 191131
AFDPSR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PHOENIX AZ
431 AM MST SUN OCT 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A SERIES OF WEATHER DISTURBANCES MOVE INTO THE REGION THROUGH EARLY
NEXT WEEK...HOWEVER A RELATIVELY DRY AIRMASS WILL LIMIT
PRECIPITATION CHANCES TO THE MOUNTAINS OF CENTRAL AND EASTERN
ARIZONA. OTHERWISE VARIABLE CLOUDINESS CAN BE EXPECTED...WITH
SLIGHTLY WARMER THAN NORMAL AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES. A STRONG HIGH
PRESSURE SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO REBUILD OVER THE REGION BY THE END OF
NEXT WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
TODAY AND TONIGHT...
A PRETTY COMPLEX LOOKING ATMOSPHERE CONTINUED TO CIRCULATE OVER AZ
THIS MORNING. THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE REGION HAS NOW BECOME
VERTICALLY TILTED TO THE EAST...MEANING THE 250 MB CIRCULATION
CENTER WAS NEAR THE 4 CORNERS...THE 300 MB CIRCULATION CENTER NEAR
FLAGSTAFF...AND THE 500 MB CIRCULATION CENTER OVER NORTHERN BAJA.
MORNING THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE EASTERN RIM AND WHITE MOUNTAINS OF AZ
WERE MOSTLY HIGH BASED AND RELATED TO A STRONG 300 MB DIFLUENT FIELD
IN EASTERN AZ.

SINCE THE TROF OVER AZ WAS VERTICALLY TILTED TO THE EAST...
AGEOSTROPHIC/SECONDARY CIRCULATIONS WERE NOT VERY STRONG AND OUR
QUESTION IS...WHY IS THE GFS MODEL PUMPING LOTS OF BOUNDARY LAYER
MOISTURE NORTH INTO EASTERN AZ FOR TODAY. FOR EXAMPLE...THE GFS
MODELED SOUNDINGS AT TUCSON AND CASA GRANDE FORECAST BOUNDARY LAYER
MOISTURE AT MONSOON LEVELS...I.E 8 DEG C DEWPOINTS BETWEEN 800 AND
850 MB. REGIONAL WEATHER BALLOON SOUNDINGS SATURDAY EVENING DIDNT
SHOW ANY MOISTURE LEVELS THAT HIGH...AND...EVEN THOUGH CHIHUAHUA AND
GUAYMAS MEXICO SOUNDINGS WERE MISSING...GPS-IPW PRECIP WATER (PW)
PLOTS AT 08Z SHOWED THE LEAST AMOUNT OF PW WAS OVER SOUTHEAST AZ AND
NORTHWEST MEXICO JUST SOUTH OF THE SOUTHEAST AZ CORNER. THEREFORE WE
THINK THE GFS MOISTURE LEVELS MAY BE OVERDONE AND WE WILL ADJUST
THEM FOR OUR FORECAST ACCORDINGLY.

FOR TODAY...THE ONLY PLACE WHERE THERE IS A CHANCE OF SHWRS/TSTMS
TODAY IS OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF SOUTHERN GILA COUNTY. EVEN
THOUGH IN OUR MINDS EYE WE HAVE REDUCED THE AMOUNT OF BOUNDARY LAYER
MOISTURE FORECAST BY THE GFS...CONVECTIVE TRIGGER TEMPERATURES WILL
STILL BE MET IN THE MOUNTAINS OF SOUTHERN GILA COUNTY FOR A CHANCE
OF SHWRS. CLEARING TONIGHT.

MONDAY...
ALTHOUGH THE LAGGING AND SLOWER MOVING 500 MB TROF FINALLY SHIFTS
INTO SOUTHEAST AZ MONDAY AFTERNOON...THE 300/250 MB CIRCULATION
CENTERS ACCELERATE INTO EASTERN NEW MEXICO AND THE TEXAS PANHANDLE
RESULTING IN STRONG UPPER LEVEL SUBSIDENCE OVER AZ. THEREFORE MOSTLY
CLEAR SKIES WITH SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES ARE
FORECAST OVER OUR AREA...SOUTHEAST CA TO SOUTH CENTRAL AZ.

TUESDAY...
THE NEXT IN A SERIES OF PACIFIC WEATHER SYSTEMS WILL MOVE INTO
WESTERN STATES ON TUESDAY. ANY PRECIP WILL BE CONFINED TO PARTS OF
UTAH AND ALONG THE EASTERN AZ BORDER...BUT MAINLY IN NEW MEXICO.
THEREFORE EXCEPT FOR SOME HIGH CLOUDS...FORECASTS WILL REMAIN DRY
WITH SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES.

WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...
A STRONG HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BEGIN BUILDING OVER THE FORECAST
AREA WEDNESDAY...THEN STRENGTHEN INTO THE WEEKEND. THEREFORE NEARLY
CLOUDLESS SKIES ARE EXPECTED WITH MUCH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR
LATE OCTOBER.


&&

.AVIATION...
SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA INCLUDING KPHX...KIWA AND KSDL...
MID AND HIGH CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL
LINGER THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON WITH CLEARING SKIES THIS EVENING.
ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL REMAIN TO THE EAST AND NORTH
OF THE PHOENIX AREA...STAYING CONFINED TO THE HIGHER TERRAIN AREAS.

SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA AND SOUTHWEST ARIZONA INCLUDING KIPL AND KBLH...
MAINLY CLEAR SKIES WITH LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS EXPECTED AND NO
AVIATION IMPACTS THROUGH THE PERIOD.

AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDED TAFS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...
A PAIR OF LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS PASSING THROUGH THE AREA WILL BRING A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS TO THE HIGHER TERRAIN
AREAS EAST OF PHOENIX...WITH THE BEST CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION ON
MONDAY AND TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. A GRADUAL DRYING TREND IS
EXPECTED THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD...WITH MINIMUM HUMIDITIES IN
THE LOWER DESERTS RANGING FROM AROUND 20 PERCENT ON TUESDAY TO THE
LOW TO MID TEENS ON SATURDAY. WINDS WILL BE GENERALLY LIGHT AND
FOLLOW TYPICAL DIURNAL PATTERNS EACH DAY.

&&

.PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

AZ...NONE.

CA...NONE.

&&

$$

VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/PHOENIX

DISCUSSION...VASQUEZ
AVIATION...KUHLMAN
FIRE WEATHER...MCLANE/CB












000
FXUS65 KPSR 191131
AFDPSR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PHOENIX AZ
431 AM MST SUN OCT 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A SERIES OF WEATHER DISTURBANCES MOVE INTO THE REGION THROUGH EARLY
NEXT WEEK...HOWEVER A RELATIVELY DRY AIRMASS WILL LIMIT
PRECIPITATION CHANCES TO THE MOUNTAINS OF CENTRAL AND EASTERN
ARIZONA. OTHERWISE VARIABLE CLOUDINESS CAN BE EXPECTED...WITH
SLIGHTLY WARMER THAN NORMAL AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES. A STRONG HIGH
PRESSURE SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO REBUILD OVER THE REGION BY THE END OF
NEXT WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
TODAY AND TONIGHT...
A PRETTY COMPLEX LOOKING ATMOSPHERE CONTINUED TO CIRCULATE OVER AZ
THIS MORNING. THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE REGION HAS NOW BECOME
VERTICALLY TILTED TO THE EAST...MEANING THE 250 MB CIRCULATION
CENTER WAS NEAR THE 4 CORNERS...THE 300 MB CIRCULATION CENTER NEAR
FLAGSTAFF...AND THE 500 MB CIRCULATION CENTER OVER NORTHERN BAJA.
MORNING THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE EASTERN RIM AND WHITE MOUNTAINS OF AZ
WERE MOSTLY HIGH BASED AND RELATED TO A STRONG 300 MB DIFLUENT FIELD
IN EASTERN AZ.

SINCE THE TROF OVER AZ WAS VERTICALLY TILTED TO THE EAST...
AGEOSTROPHIC/SECONDARY CIRCULATIONS WERE NOT VERY STRONG AND OUR
QUESTION IS...WHY IS THE GFS MODEL PUMPING LOTS OF BOUNDARY LAYER
MOISTURE NORTH INTO EASTERN AZ FOR TODAY. FOR EXAMPLE...THE GFS
MODELED SOUNDINGS AT TUCSON AND CASA GRANDE FORECAST BOUNDARY LAYER
MOISTURE AT MONSOON LEVELS...I.E 8 DEG C DEWPOINTS BETWEEN 800 AND
850 MB. REGIONAL WEATHER BALLOON SOUNDINGS SATURDAY EVENING DIDNT
SHOW ANY MOISTURE LEVELS THAT HIGH...AND...EVEN THOUGH CHIHUAHUA AND
GUAYMAS MEXICO SOUNDINGS WERE MISSING...GPS-IPW PRECIP WATER (PW)
PLOTS AT 08Z SHOWED THE LEAST AMOUNT OF PW WAS OVER SOUTHEAST AZ AND
NORTHWEST MEXICO JUST SOUTH OF THE SOUTHEAST AZ CORNER. THEREFORE WE
THINK THE GFS MOISTURE LEVELS MAY BE OVERDONE AND WE WILL ADJUST
THEM FOR OUR FORECAST ACCORDINGLY.

FOR TODAY...THE ONLY PLACE WHERE THERE IS A CHANCE OF SHWRS/TSTMS
TODAY IS OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF SOUTHERN GILA COUNTY. EVEN
THOUGH IN OUR MINDS EYE WE HAVE REDUCED THE AMOUNT OF BOUNDARY LAYER
MOISTURE FORECAST BY THE GFS...CONVECTIVE TRIGGER TEMPERATURES WILL
STILL BE MET IN THE MOUNTAINS OF SOUTHERN GILA COUNTY FOR A CHANCE
OF SHWRS. CLEARING TONIGHT.

MONDAY...
ALTHOUGH THE LAGGING AND SLOWER MOVING 500 MB TROF FINALLY SHIFTS
INTO SOUTHEAST AZ MONDAY AFTERNOON...THE 300/250 MB CIRCULATION
CENTERS ACCELERATE INTO EASTERN NEW MEXICO AND THE TEXAS PANHANDLE
RESULTING IN STRONG UPPER LEVEL SUBSIDENCE OVER AZ. THEREFORE MOSTLY
CLEAR SKIES WITH SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES ARE
FORECAST OVER OUR AREA...SOUTHEAST CA TO SOUTH CENTRAL AZ.

TUESDAY...
THE NEXT IN A SERIES OF PACIFIC WEATHER SYSTEMS WILL MOVE INTO
WESTERN STATES ON TUESDAY. ANY PRECIP WILL BE CONFINED TO PARTS OF
UTAH AND ALONG THE EASTERN AZ BORDER...BUT MAINLY IN NEW MEXICO.
THEREFORE EXCEPT FOR SOME HIGH CLOUDS...FORECASTS WILL REMAIN DRY
WITH SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES.

WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...
A STRONG HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BEGIN BUILDING OVER THE FORECAST
AREA WEDNESDAY...THEN STRENGTHEN INTO THE WEEKEND. THEREFORE NEARLY
CLOUDLESS SKIES ARE EXPECTED WITH MUCH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR
LATE OCTOBER.


&&

.AVIATION...
SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA INCLUDING KPHX...KIWA AND KSDL...
MID AND HIGH CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL
LINGER THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON WITH CLEARING SKIES THIS EVENING.
ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL REMAIN TO THE EAST AND NORTH
OF THE PHOENIX AREA...STAYING CONFINED TO THE HIGHER TERRAIN AREAS.

SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA AND SOUTHWEST ARIZONA INCLUDING KIPL AND KBLH...
MAINLY CLEAR SKIES WITH LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS EXPECTED AND NO
AVIATION IMPACTS THROUGH THE PERIOD.

AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDED TAFS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...
A PAIR OF LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS PASSING THROUGH THE AREA WILL BRING A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS TO THE HIGHER TERRAIN
AREAS EAST OF PHOENIX...WITH THE BEST CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION ON
MONDAY AND TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. A GRADUAL DRYING TREND IS
EXPECTED THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD...WITH MINIMUM HUMIDITIES IN
THE LOWER DESERTS RANGING FROM AROUND 20 PERCENT ON TUESDAY TO THE
LOW TO MID TEENS ON SATURDAY. WINDS WILL BE GENERALLY LIGHT AND
FOLLOW TYPICAL DIURNAL PATTERNS EACH DAY.

&&

.PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

AZ...NONE.

CA...NONE.

&&

$$

VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/PHOENIX

DISCUSSION...VASQUEZ
AVIATION...KUHLMAN
FIRE WEATHER...MCLANE/CB












000
FXUS65 KPSR 191131
AFDPSR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PHOENIX AZ
431 AM MST SUN OCT 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A SERIES OF WEATHER DISTURBANCES MOVE INTO THE REGION THROUGH EARLY
NEXT WEEK...HOWEVER A RELATIVELY DRY AIRMASS WILL LIMIT
PRECIPITATION CHANCES TO THE MOUNTAINS OF CENTRAL AND EASTERN
ARIZONA. OTHERWISE VARIABLE CLOUDINESS CAN BE EXPECTED...WITH
SLIGHTLY WARMER THAN NORMAL AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES. A STRONG HIGH
PRESSURE SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO REBUILD OVER THE REGION BY THE END OF
NEXT WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
TODAY AND TONIGHT...
A PRETTY COMPLEX LOOKING ATMOSPHERE CONTINUED TO CIRCULATE OVER AZ
THIS MORNING. THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE REGION HAS NOW BECOME
VERTICALLY TILTED TO THE EAST...MEANING THE 250 MB CIRCULATION
CENTER WAS NEAR THE 4 CORNERS...THE 300 MB CIRCULATION CENTER NEAR
FLAGSTAFF...AND THE 500 MB CIRCULATION CENTER OVER NORTHERN BAJA.
MORNING THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE EASTERN RIM AND WHITE MOUNTAINS OF AZ
WERE MOSTLY HIGH BASED AND RELATED TO A STRONG 300 MB DIFLUENT FIELD
IN EASTERN AZ.

SINCE THE TROF OVER AZ WAS VERTICALLY TILTED TO THE EAST...
AGEOSTROPHIC/SECONDARY CIRCULATIONS WERE NOT VERY STRONG AND OUR
QUESTION IS...WHY IS THE GFS MODEL PUMPING LOTS OF BOUNDARY LAYER
MOISTURE NORTH INTO EASTERN AZ FOR TODAY. FOR EXAMPLE...THE GFS
MODELED SOUNDINGS AT TUCSON AND CASA GRANDE FORECAST BOUNDARY LAYER
MOISTURE AT MONSOON LEVELS...I.E 8 DEG C DEWPOINTS BETWEEN 800 AND
850 MB. REGIONAL WEATHER BALLOON SOUNDINGS SATURDAY EVENING DIDNT
SHOW ANY MOISTURE LEVELS THAT HIGH...AND...EVEN THOUGH CHIHUAHUA AND
GUAYMAS MEXICO SOUNDINGS WERE MISSING...GPS-IPW PRECIP WATER (PW)
PLOTS AT 08Z SHOWED THE LEAST AMOUNT OF PW WAS OVER SOUTHEAST AZ AND
NORTHWEST MEXICO JUST SOUTH OF THE SOUTHEAST AZ CORNER. THEREFORE WE
THINK THE GFS MOISTURE LEVELS MAY BE OVERDONE AND WE WILL ADJUST
THEM FOR OUR FORECAST ACCORDINGLY.

FOR TODAY...THE ONLY PLACE WHERE THERE IS A CHANCE OF SHWRS/TSTMS
TODAY IS OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF SOUTHERN GILA COUNTY. EVEN
THOUGH IN OUR MINDS EYE WE HAVE REDUCED THE AMOUNT OF BOUNDARY LAYER
MOISTURE FORECAST BY THE GFS...CONVECTIVE TRIGGER TEMPERATURES WILL
STILL BE MET IN THE MOUNTAINS OF SOUTHERN GILA COUNTY FOR A CHANCE
OF SHWRS. CLEARING TONIGHT.

MONDAY...
ALTHOUGH THE LAGGING AND SLOWER MOVING 500 MB TROF FINALLY SHIFTS
INTO SOUTHEAST AZ MONDAY AFTERNOON...THE 300/250 MB CIRCULATION
CENTERS ACCELERATE INTO EASTERN NEW MEXICO AND THE TEXAS PANHANDLE
RESULTING IN STRONG UPPER LEVEL SUBSIDENCE OVER AZ. THEREFORE MOSTLY
CLEAR SKIES WITH SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES ARE
FORECAST OVER OUR AREA...SOUTHEAST CA TO SOUTH CENTRAL AZ.

TUESDAY...
THE NEXT IN A SERIES OF PACIFIC WEATHER SYSTEMS WILL MOVE INTO
WESTERN STATES ON TUESDAY. ANY PRECIP WILL BE CONFINED TO PARTS OF
UTAH AND ALONG THE EASTERN AZ BORDER...BUT MAINLY IN NEW MEXICO.
THEREFORE EXCEPT FOR SOME HIGH CLOUDS...FORECASTS WILL REMAIN DRY
WITH SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES.

WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...
A STRONG HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BEGIN BUILDING OVER THE FORECAST
AREA WEDNESDAY...THEN STRENGTHEN INTO THE WEEKEND. THEREFORE NEARLY
CLOUDLESS SKIES ARE EXPECTED WITH MUCH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR
LATE OCTOBER.


&&

.AVIATION...
SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA INCLUDING KPHX...KIWA AND KSDL...
MID AND HIGH CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL
LINGER THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON WITH CLEARING SKIES THIS EVENING.
ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL REMAIN TO THE EAST AND NORTH
OF THE PHOENIX AREA...STAYING CONFINED TO THE HIGHER TERRAIN AREAS.

SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA AND SOUTHWEST ARIZONA INCLUDING KIPL AND KBLH...
MAINLY CLEAR SKIES WITH LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS EXPECTED AND NO
AVIATION IMPACTS THROUGH THE PERIOD.

AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDED TAFS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...
A PAIR OF LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS PASSING THROUGH THE AREA WILL BRING A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS TO THE HIGHER TERRAIN
AREAS EAST OF PHOENIX...WITH THE BEST CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION ON
MONDAY AND TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. A GRADUAL DRYING TREND IS
EXPECTED THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD...WITH MINIMUM HUMIDITIES IN
THE LOWER DESERTS RANGING FROM AROUND 20 PERCENT ON TUESDAY TO THE
LOW TO MID TEENS ON SATURDAY. WINDS WILL BE GENERALLY LIGHT AND
FOLLOW TYPICAL DIURNAL PATTERNS EACH DAY.

&&

.PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

AZ...NONE.

CA...NONE.

&&

$$

VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/PHOENIX

DISCUSSION...VASQUEZ
AVIATION...KUHLMAN
FIRE WEATHER...MCLANE/CB












000
FXUS65 KPSR 191131
AFDPSR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PHOENIX AZ
431 AM MST SUN OCT 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A SERIES OF WEATHER DISTURBANCES MOVE INTO THE REGION THROUGH EARLY
NEXT WEEK...HOWEVER A RELATIVELY DRY AIRMASS WILL LIMIT
PRECIPITATION CHANCES TO THE MOUNTAINS OF CENTRAL AND EASTERN
ARIZONA. OTHERWISE VARIABLE CLOUDINESS CAN BE EXPECTED...WITH
SLIGHTLY WARMER THAN NORMAL AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES. A STRONG HIGH
PRESSURE SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO REBUILD OVER THE REGION BY THE END OF
NEXT WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
TODAY AND TONIGHT...
A PRETTY COMPLEX LOOKING ATMOSPHERE CONTINUED TO CIRCULATE OVER AZ
THIS MORNING. THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE REGION HAS NOW BECOME
VERTICALLY TILTED TO THE EAST...MEANING THE 250 MB CIRCULATION
CENTER WAS NEAR THE 4 CORNERS...THE 300 MB CIRCULATION CENTER NEAR
FLAGSTAFF...AND THE 500 MB CIRCULATION CENTER OVER NORTHERN BAJA.
MORNING THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE EASTERN RIM AND WHITE MOUNTAINS OF AZ
WERE MOSTLY HIGH BASED AND RELATED TO A STRONG 300 MB DIFLUENT FIELD
IN EASTERN AZ.

SINCE THE TROF OVER AZ WAS VERTICALLY TILTED TO THE EAST...
AGEOSTROPHIC/SECONDARY CIRCULATIONS WERE NOT VERY STRONG AND OUR
QUESTION IS...WHY IS THE GFS MODEL PUMPING LOTS OF BOUNDARY LAYER
MOISTURE NORTH INTO EASTERN AZ FOR TODAY. FOR EXAMPLE...THE GFS
MODELED SOUNDINGS AT TUCSON AND CASA GRANDE FORECAST BOUNDARY LAYER
MOISTURE AT MONSOON LEVELS...I.E 8 DEG C DEWPOINTS BETWEEN 800 AND
850 MB. REGIONAL WEATHER BALLOON SOUNDINGS SATURDAY EVENING DIDNT
SHOW ANY MOISTURE LEVELS THAT HIGH...AND...EVEN THOUGH CHIHUAHUA AND
GUAYMAS MEXICO SOUNDINGS WERE MISSING...GPS-IPW PRECIP WATER (PW)
PLOTS AT 08Z SHOWED THE LEAST AMOUNT OF PW WAS OVER SOUTHEAST AZ AND
NORTHWEST MEXICO JUST SOUTH OF THE SOUTHEAST AZ CORNER. THEREFORE WE
THINK THE GFS MOISTURE LEVELS MAY BE OVERDONE AND WE WILL ADJUST
THEM FOR OUR FORECAST ACCORDINGLY.

FOR TODAY...THE ONLY PLACE WHERE THERE IS A CHANCE OF SHWRS/TSTMS
TODAY IS OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF SOUTHERN GILA COUNTY. EVEN
THOUGH IN OUR MINDS EYE WE HAVE REDUCED THE AMOUNT OF BOUNDARY LAYER
MOISTURE FORECAST BY THE GFS...CONVECTIVE TRIGGER TEMPERATURES WILL
STILL BE MET IN THE MOUNTAINS OF SOUTHERN GILA COUNTY FOR A CHANCE
OF SHWRS. CLEARING TONIGHT.

MONDAY...
ALTHOUGH THE LAGGING AND SLOWER MOVING 500 MB TROF FINALLY SHIFTS
INTO SOUTHEAST AZ MONDAY AFTERNOON...THE 300/250 MB CIRCULATION
CENTERS ACCELERATE INTO EASTERN NEW MEXICO AND THE TEXAS PANHANDLE
RESULTING IN STRONG UPPER LEVEL SUBSIDENCE OVER AZ. THEREFORE MOSTLY
CLEAR SKIES WITH SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES ARE
FORECAST OVER OUR AREA...SOUTHEAST CA TO SOUTH CENTRAL AZ.

TUESDAY...
THE NEXT IN A SERIES OF PACIFIC WEATHER SYSTEMS WILL MOVE INTO
WESTERN STATES ON TUESDAY. ANY PRECIP WILL BE CONFINED TO PARTS OF
UTAH AND ALONG THE EASTERN AZ BORDER...BUT MAINLY IN NEW MEXICO.
THEREFORE EXCEPT FOR SOME HIGH CLOUDS...FORECASTS WILL REMAIN DRY
WITH SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES.

WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...
A STRONG HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BEGIN BUILDING OVER THE FORECAST
AREA WEDNESDAY...THEN STRENGTHEN INTO THE WEEKEND. THEREFORE NEARLY
CLOUDLESS SKIES ARE EXPECTED WITH MUCH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR
LATE OCTOBER.


&&

.AVIATION...
SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA INCLUDING KPHX...KIWA AND KSDL...
MID AND HIGH CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL
LINGER THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON WITH CLEARING SKIES THIS EVENING.
ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL REMAIN TO THE EAST AND NORTH
OF THE PHOENIX AREA...STAYING CONFINED TO THE HIGHER TERRAIN AREAS.

SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA AND SOUTHWEST ARIZONA INCLUDING KIPL AND KBLH...
MAINLY CLEAR SKIES WITH LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS EXPECTED AND NO
AVIATION IMPACTS THROUGH THE PERIOD.

AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDED TAFS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...
A PAIR OF LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS PASSING THROUGH THE AREA WILL BRING A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS TO THE HIGHER TERRAIN
AREAS EAST OF PHOENIX...WITH THE BEST CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION ON
MONDAY AND TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. A GRADUAL DRYING TREND IS
EXPECTED THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD...WITH MINIMUM HUMIDITIES IN
THE LOWER DESERTS RANGING FROM AROUND 20 PERCENT ON TUESDAY TO THE
LOW TO MID TEENS ON SATURDAY. WINDS WILL BE GENERALLY LIGHT AND
FOLLOW TYPICAL DIURNAL PATTERNS EACH DAY.

&&

.PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

AZ...NONE.

CA...NONE.

&&

$$

VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/PHOENIX

DISCUSSION...VASQUEZ
AVIATION...KUHLMAN
FIRE WEATHER...MCLANE/CB












000
FXUS65 KFGZ 191112
AFDFGZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ
410 AM MST SUN OCT 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...EXPECT SCATTERED AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TODAY AND MONDAY...WITH DRYING DEVELOPING FROM THE
WEST ON TUESDAY. DRY CONDITIONS AND A WARMING TREND WILL THEN
DEVELOP BY WEDNESDAY...INTO NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.DISCUSSION...WEAK ASCENT AHEAD OF AN UPPER LOW JUST SOUTHEAST OF
YUMA HAS COMBINED WITH A MODERATELY UNSTABLE...MOIST AND SHEARED
AIRMASS ABOVE 650MB. THIS IS ENOUGH TO PRODUCE SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER A GOOD PORTION OF CENTRAL/EASTERN ARIZONA
EARLY THIS MORNING. THIS PATTERN WILL CONTINUE FOR MUCH OF THE DAY.
SOUTHEAST STEERING FLOW WILL ALLOW MOISTURE TO PUSH NORTH AND WEST
THROUGH THE DAY...DESPITE THE LOW MOVING EAST. A LOSS OF FORCING
LATER THIS MORNING WILL BE COMPENSATED FOR BY SURFACE HEATING AND
FURTHER DESTABLIZATION OF THE ATMOSPHERE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.

WE HAVE RAISED POPS AS A RESULT...ESPECIALLY FROM FLAGSTAFF SOUTH
AND EAST. EVENING ACTIVITY SHOULD DIMINISH QUICKLY AS THE LOW MOVES
AWAY FROM THE AREA. ENOUGH RESIDUAL MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY WILL
LINGER MONDAY FOR ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWER ACTIVITY. DRYING
DEVELOPS FROM THE WEST TUESDAY AS TROUGH MOVES THROUGH THE GREAT
BASIN. MUCH DRIER WESTERLY FLOW TRAILS THIS TROUGH THE REMAINDER OF
THE WEEK...EVENTUALLY COUPLED WITH RISING HGHTS. THIS WILL PRODUCE
SEVERAL WARM AND SUNNY DAYS HEADING INTO NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 12Z PACKAGE...EXPECT SCT-NMRS -SHRA/ISOLD TSRA
TO CONTINUE ALONG AND TO A RIGHT OF A LINE FROM KFLG-KRQE-KSJN-KPAN
THIS MORNING. EXPECT MORE DEVELOPMENT AFTER 18Z SUN...SCT -SHRA AND
ISOLD -TSRA MOSTLY EAST OF A LINE FROM KPRC-KFLG-KGCN-KRQE. BRIEF
MVFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE UNDER THE HEAVIEST SHOWERS. MOST ACTIVITY
WILL DECREASE AFT 02Z MONDAY. AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR
AMENDMENTS.

&&

.FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC.........PETERSON
AVIATION.......TC

FOR NORTHERN ARIZONA WEATHER INFORMATION VISIT
WEATHER.GOV/FLAGSTAFF




000
FXUS65 KFGZ 191112
AFDFGZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ
410 AM MST SUN OCT 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...EXPECT SCATTERED AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TODAY AND MONDAY...WITH DRYING DEVELOPING FROM THE
WEST ON TUESDAY. DRY CONDITIONS AND A WARMING TREND WILL THEN
DEVELOP BY WEDNESDAY...INTO NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.DISCUSSION...WEAK ASCENT AHEAD OF AN UPPER LOW JUST SOUTHEAST OF
YUMA HAS COMBINED WITH A MODERATELY UNSTABLE...MOIST AND SHEARED
AIRMASS ABOVE 650MB. THIS IS ENOUGH TO PRODUCE SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER A GOOD PORTION OF CENTRAL/EASTERN ARIZONA
EARLY THIS MORNING. THIS PATTERN WILL CONTINUE FOR MUCH OF THE DAY.
SOUTHEAST STEERING FLOW WILL ALLOW MOISTURE TO PUSH NORTH AND WEST
THROUGH THE DAY...DESPITE THE LOW MOVING EAST. A LOSS OF FORCING
LATER THIS MORNING WILL BE COMPENSATED FOR BY SURFACE HEATING AND
FURTHER DESTABLIZATION OF THE ATMOSPHERE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.

WE HAVE RAISED POPS AS A RESULT...ESPECIALLY FROM FLAGSTAFF SOUTH
AND EAST. EVENING ACTIVITY SHOULD DIMINISH QUICKLY AS THE LOW MOVES
AWAY FROM THE AREA. ENOUGH RESIDUAL MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY WILL
LINGER MONDAY FOR ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWER ACTIVITY. DRYING
DEVELOPS FROM THE WEST TUESDAY AS TROUGH MOVES THROUGH THE GREAT
BASIN. MUCH DRIER WESTERLY FLOW TRAILS THIS TROUGH THE REMAINDER OF
THE WEEK...EVENTUALLY COUPLED WITH RISING HGHTS. THIS WILL PRODUCE
SEVERAL WARM AND SUNNY DAYS HEADING INTO NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 12Z PACKAGE...EXPECT SCT-NMRS -SHRA/ISOLD TSRA
TO CONTINUE ALONG AND TO A RIGHT OF A LINE FROM KFLG-KRQE-KSJN-KPAN
THIS MORNING. EXPECT MORE DEVELOPMENT AFTER 18Z SUN...SCT -SHRA AND
ISOLD -TSRA MOSTLY EAST OF A LINE FROM KPRC-KFLG-KGCN-KRQE. BRIEF
MVFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE UNDER THE HEAVIEST SHOWERS. MOST ACTIVITY
WILL DECREASE AFT 02Z MONDAY. AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR
AMENDMENTS.

&&

.FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC.........PETERSON
AVIATION.......TC

FOR NORTHERN ARIZONA WEATHER INFORMATION VISIT
WEATHER.GOV/FLAGSTAFF





000
FXUS65 KPSR 191003
AFDPSR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PHOENIX AZ
300 AM MST SUN OCT 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A SERIES OF WEATHER DISTURBANCES MOVE INTO THE REGION THROUGH EARLY
NEXT WEEK...HOWEVER A RELATIVELY DRY AIRMASS WILL LIMIT
PRECIPITATION CHANCES TO THE MOUNTAINS OF CENTRAL AND EASTERN
ARIZONA. OTHERWISE VARIABLE CLOUDINESS CAN BE EXPECTED...WITH
SLIGHTLY WARMER THAN NORMAL AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES. A STRONG HIGH
PRESSURE SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO REBUILD OVER THE REGION BY THE END OF
NEXT WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
TODAY AND TONIGHT...
A PRETTY COMPLEX LOOKING ATMOSPHERE CONTINUED TO CIRCULATE OVER AZ
THIS MORNING. THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE REGION HAS NOW BECOME
VERTICALLY TILTED TO THE EAST...MEANING THE 250 MB CIRCULATION
CENTER WAS NEAR THE 4 CORNERS...THE 300 MB CIRCULATION CENTER NEAR
FLAGSTAFF...AND THE 500 MB CIRCULATION CENTER OVER NORTHERN BAJA.
MORNING THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE EASTERN RIM AND WHITE MOUNTAINS OF AZ
WERE MOSTLY HIGH BASED AND RELATED TO A STRONG 300 MB DIFLUENT FIELD
IN EASTERN AZ.

SINCE THE TROF OVER AZ WAS VERTICALLY TILTED TO THE EAST...
AGEOSTROPHIC/SECONDARY CIRCULATIONS WERE NOT VERY STRONG AND OUR
QUESTION IS...WHY IS THE GFS MODEL PUMPING LOTS OF BOUNDARY LAYER
MOISTURE NORTH INTO EASTERN AZ FOR TODAY. FOR EXAMPLE...THE GFS
MODELED SOUNDINGS AT TUCSON AND CASA GRANDE FORECAST BOUNDARY LAYER
MOISTURE AT MONSOON LEVELS...I.E 8 DEG C DEWPOINTS BETWEEN 800 AND
850 MB. REGIONAL WEATHER BALLOON SOUNDINGS SATURDAY EVENING DIDNT
SHOW ANY MOISTURE LEVELS THAT HIGH...AND...EVEN THOUGH CHIHUAHUA AND
GUAYMAS MEXICO SOUNDINGS WERE MISSING...GPS-IPW PRECIP WATER (PW)
PLOTS AT 08Z SHOWED THE LEAST AMOUNT OF PW WAS OVER SOUTHEAST AZ AND
NORTHWEST MEXICO JUST SOUTH OF THE SOUTHEAST AZ CORNER. THEREFORE WE
THINK THE GFS MOISTURE LEVELS MAY BE OVERDONE AND WE WILL ADJUST
THEM FOR OUR FORECAST ACCORDINGLY.

FOR TODAY...THE ONLY PLACE WHERE THERE IS A CHANCE OF SHWRS/TSTMS
TODAY IS OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF SOUTHERN GILA COUNTY. EVEN
THOUGH IN OUR MINDS EYE WE HAVE REDUCED THE AMOUNT OF BOUNDARY LAYER
MOISTURE FORECAST BY THE GFS...CONVECTIVE TRIGGER TEMPERATURES WILL
STILL BE MET IN THE MOUNTAINS OF SOUTHERN GILA COUNTY FOR A CHANCE
OF SHWRS. CLEARING TONIGHT.

MONDAY...
ALTHOUGH THE LAGGING AND SLOWER MOVING 500 MB TROF FINALLY SHIFTS
INTO SOUTHEAST AZ MONDAY AFTERNOON...THE 300/250 MB CIRCULATION
CENTERS ACCELERATE INTO EASTERN NEW MEXICO AND THE TEXAS PANHANDLE
RESULTING IN STRONG UPPER LEVEL SUBSIDENCE OVER AZ. THEREFORE MOSTLY
CLEAR SKIES WITH SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES ARE
FORECAST OVER OUR AREA...SOUTHEAST CA TO SOUTH CENTRAL AZ.

TUESDAY...
THE NEXT IN A SERIES OF PACIFIC WEATHER SYSTEMS WILL MOVE INTO
WESTERN STATES ON TUESDAY. ANY PRECIP WILL BE CONFINED TO PARTS OF
UTAH AND ALONG THE EASTERN AZ BORDER...BUT MAINLY IN NEW MEXICO.
THEREFORE EXCEPT FOR SOME HIGH CLOUDS...FORECASTS WILL REMAIN DRY
WITH SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES.

WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...
A STRONG HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BEGIN BUILDING OVER THE FORECAST
AREA WEDNESDAY...THEN STRENGTHEN INTO THE WEEKEND. THEREFORE NEARLY
CLOUDLESS SKIES ARE EXPECTED WITH MUCH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR
LATE OCTOBER.


&&

.AVIATION...
SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA INCLUDING KPHX...KIWA AND KSDL...
MID AND HIGH CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL
LINGER THROUGH SUNDAY. ISOLATED CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP
SUNDAY AFTERNOON...BUT WILL GENERALLY REMAIN CONFINED TO THE HIGHER
TERRAIN EAST OF PHOENIX.

SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA AND SOUTHWEST ARIZONA INCLUDING KIPL AND KBLH...
MAINLY CLEAR SKIES WITH LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS EXPECTED.

AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDED TAFS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...
A PAIR OF LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS PASSING THROUGH THE AREA WILL BRING A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS TO THE HIGHER TERRAIN
AREAS EAST OF PHOENIX...WITH THE BEST CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION ON
MONDAY AND TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. A GRADUAL DRYING TREND IS
EXPECTED THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD...WITH MINIMUM HUMIDITIES IN
THE LOWER DESERTS RANGING FROM AROUND 20 PERCENT ON TUESDAY TO THE
LOW TO MID TEENS ON SATURDAY. WINDS WILL BE GENERALLY LIGHT AND
FOLLOW TYPICAL DIURNAL PATTERNS EACH DAY.

&&

.PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

AZ...NONE.

CA...NONE.

&&

$$

VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/PHOENIX

DISCUSSION...VASQUEZ
AVIATION...HIRSCH
FIRE WEATHER...MCLANE/CB








000
FXUS65 KPSR 191003
AFDPSR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PHOENIX AZ
300 AM MST SUN OCT 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A SERIES OF WEATHER DISTURBANCES MOVE INTO THE REGION THROUGH EARLY
NEXT WEEK...HOWEVER A RELATIVELY DRY AIRMASS WILL LIMIT
PRECIPITATION CHANCES TO THE MOUNTAINS OF CENTRAL AND EASTERN
ARIZONA. OTHERWISE VARIABLE CLOUDINESS CAN BE EXPECTED...WITH
SLIGHTLY WARMER THAN NORMAL AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES. A STRONG HIGH
PRESSURE SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO REBUILD OVER THE REGION BY THE END OF
NEXT WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
TODAY AND TONIGHT...
A PRETTY COMPLEX LOOKING ATMOSPHERE CONTINUED TO CIRCULATE OVER AZ
THIS MORNING. THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE REGION HAS NOW BECOME
VERTICALLY TILTED TO THE EAST...MEANING THE 250 MB CIRCULATION
CENTER WAS NEAR THE 4 CORNERS...THE 300 MB CIRCULATION CENTER NEAR
FLAGSTAFF...AND THE 500 MB CIRCULATION CENTER OVER NORTHERN BAJA.
MORNING THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE EASTERN RIM AND WHITE MOUNTAINS OF AZ
WERE MOSTLY HIGH BASED AND RELATED TO A STRONG 300 MB DIFLUENT FIELD
IN EASTERN AZ.

SINCE THE TROF OVER AZ WAS VERTICALLY TILTED TO THE EAST...
AGEOSTROPHIC/SECONDARY CIRCULATIONS WERE NOT VERY STRONG AND OUR
QUESTION IS...WHY IS THE GFS MODEL PUMPING LOTS OF BOUNDARY LAYER
MOISTURE NORTH INTO EASTERN AZ FOR TODAY. FOR EXAMPLE...THE GFS
MODELED SOUNDINGS AT TUCSON AND CASA GRANDE FORECAST BOUNDARY LAYER
MOISTURE AT MONSOON LEVELS...I.E 8 DEG C DEWPOINTS BETWEEN 800 AND
850 MB. REGIONAL WEATHER BALLOON SOUNDINGS SATURDAY EVENING DIDNT
SHOW ANY MOISTURE LEVELS THAT HIGH...AND...EVEN THOUGH CHIHUAHUA AND
GUAYMAS MEXICO SOUNDINGS WERE MISSING...GPS-IPW PRECIP WATER (PW)
PLOTS AT 08Z SHOWED THE LEAST AMOUNT OF PW WAS OVER SOUTHEAST AZ AND
NORTHWEST MEXICO JUST SOUTH OF THE SOUTHEAST AZ CORNER. THEREFORE WE
THINK THE GFS MOISTURE LEVELS MAY BE OVERDONE AND WE WILL ADJUST
THEM FOR OUR FORECAST ACCORDINGLY.

FOR TODAY...THE ONLY PLACE WHERE THERE IS A CHANCE OF SHWRS/TSTMS
TODAY IS OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF SOUTHERN GILA COUNTY. EVEN
THOUGH IN OUR MINDS EYE WE HAVE REDUCED THE AMOUNT OF BOUNDARY LAYER
MOISTURE FORECAST BY THE GFS...CONVECTIVE TRIGGER TEMPERATURES WILL
STILL BE MET IN THE MOUNTAINS OF SOUTHERN GILA COUNTY FOR A CHANCE
OF SHWRS. CLEARING TONIGHT.

MONDAY...
ALTHOUGH THE LAGGING AND SLOWER MOVING 500 MB TROF FINALLY SHIFTS
INTO SOUTHEAST AZ MONDAY AFTERNOON...THE 300/250 MB CIRCULATION
CENTERS ACCELERATE INTO EASTERN NEW MEXICO AND THE TEXAS PANHANDLE
RESULTING IN STRONG UPPER LEVEL SUBSIDENCE OVER AZ. THEREFORE MOSTLY
CLEAR SKIES WITH SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES ARE
FORECAST OVER OUR AREA...SOUTHEAST CA TO SOUTH CENTRAL AZ.

TUESDAY...
THE NEXT IN A SERIES OF PACIFIC WEATHER SYSTEMS WILL MOVE INTO
WESTERN STATES ON TUESDAY. ANY PRECIP WILL BE CONFINED TO PARTS OF
UTAH AND ALONG THE EASTERN AZ BORDER...BUT MAINLY IN NEW MEXICO.
THEREFORE EXCEPT FOR SOME HIGH CLOUDS...FORECASTS WILL REMAIN DRY
WITH SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES.

WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...
A STRONG HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BEGIN BUILDING OVER THE FORECAST
AREA WEDNESDAY...THEN STRENGTHEN INTO THE WEEKEND. THEREFORE NEARLY
CLOUDLESS SKIES ARE EXPECTED WITH MUCH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR
LATE OCTOBER.


&&

.AVIATION...
SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA INCLUDING KPHX...KIWA AND KSDL...
MID AND HIGH CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL
LINGER THROUGH SUNDAY. ISOLATED CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP
SUNDAY AFTERNOON...BUT WILL GENERALLY REMAIN CONFINED TO THE HIGHER
TERRAIN EAST OF PHOENIX.

SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA AND SOUTHWEST ARIZONA INCLUDING KIPL AND KBLH...
MAINLY CLEAR SKIES WITH LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS EXPECTED.

AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDED TAFS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...
A PAIR OF LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS PASSING THROUGH THE AREA WILL BRING A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS TO THE HIGHER TERRAIN
AREAS EAST OF PHOENIX...WITH THE BEST CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION ON
MONDAY AND TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. A GRADUAL DRYING TREND IS
EXPECTED THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD...WITH MINIMUM HUMIDITIES IN
THE LOWER DESERTS RANGING FROM AROUND 20 PERCENT ON TUESDAY TO THE
LOW TO MID TEENS ON SATURDAY. WINDS WILL BE GENERALLY LIGHT AND
FOLLOW TYPICAL DIURNAL PATTERNS EACH DAY.

&&

.PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

AZ...NONE.

CA...NONE.

&&

$$

VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/PHOENIX

DISCUSSION...VASQUEZ
AVIATION...HIRSCH
FIRE WEATHER...MCLANE/CB








000
FXUS65 KPSR 191003
AFDPSR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PHOENIX AZ
300 AM MST SUN OCT 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A SERIES OF WEATHER DISTURBANCES MOVE INTO THE REGION THROUGH EARLY
NEXT WEEK...HOWEVER A RELATIVELY DRY AIRMASS WILL LIMIT
PRECIPITATION CHANCES TO THE MOUNTAINS OF CENTRAL AND EASTERN
ARIZONA. OTHERWISE VARIABLE CLOUDINESS CAN BE EXPECTED...WITH
SLIGHTLY WARMER THAN NORMAL AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES. A STRONG HIGH
PRESSURE SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO REBUILD OVER THE REGION BY THE END OF
NEXT WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
TODAY AND TONIGHT...
A PRETTY COMPLEX LOOKING ATMOSPHERE CONTINUED TO CIRCULATE OVER AZ
THIS MORNING. THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE REGION HAS NOW BECOME
VERTICALLY TILTED TO THE EAST...MEANING THE 250 MB CIRCULATION
CENTER WAS NEAR THE 4 CORNERS...THE 300 MB CIRCULATION CENTER NEAR
FLAGSTAFF...AND THE 500 MB CIRCULATION CENTER OVER NORTHERN BAJA.
MORNING THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE EASTERN RIM AND WHITE MOUNTAINS OF AZ
WERE MOSTLY HIGH BASED AND RELATED TO A STRONG 300 MB DIFLUENT FIELD
IN EASTERN AZ.

SINCE THE TROF OVER AZ WAS VERTICALLY TILTED TO THE EAST...
AGEOSTROPHIC/SECONDARY CIRCULATIONS WERE NOT VERY STRONG AND OUR
QUESTION IS...WHY IS THE GFS MODEL PUMPING LOTS OF BOUNDARY LAYER
MOISTURE NORTH INTO EASTERN AZ FOR TODAY. FOR EXAMPLE...THE GFS
MODELED SOUNDINGS AT TUCSON AND CASA GRANDE FORECAST BOUNDARY LAYER
MOISTURE AT MONSOON LEVELS...I.E 8 DEG C DEWPOINTS BETWEEN 800 AND
850 MB. REGIONAL WEATHER BALLOON SOUNDINGS SATURDAY EVENING DIDNT
SHOW ANY MOISTURE LEVELS THAT HIGH...AND...EVEN THOUGH CHIHUAHUA AND
GUAYMAS MEXICO SOUNDINGS WERE MISSING...GPS-IPW PRECIP WATER (PW)
PLOTS AT 08Z SHOWED THE LEAST AMOUNT OF PW WAS OVER SOUTHEAST AZ AND
NORTHWEST MEXICO JUST SOUTH OF THE SOUTHEAST AZ CORNER. THEREFORE WE
THINK THE GFS MOISTURE LEVELS MAY BE OVERDONE AND WE WILL ADJUST
THEM FOR OUR FORECAST ACCORDINGLY.

FOR TODAY...THE ONLY PLACE WHERE THERE IS A CHANCE OF SHWRS/TSTMS
TODAY IS OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF SOUTHERN GILA COUNTY. EVEN
THOUGH IN OUR MINDS EYE WE HAVE REDUCED THE AMOUNT OF BOUNDARY LAYER
MOISTURE FORECAST BY THE GFS...CONVECTIVE TRIGGER TEMPERATURES WILL
STILL BE MET IN THE MOUNTAINS OF SOUTHERN GILA COUNTY FOR A CHANCE
OF SHWRS. CLEARING TONIGHT.

MONDAY...
ALTHOUGH THE LAGGING AND SLOWER MOVING 500 MB TROF FINALLY SHIFTS
INTO SOUTHEAST AZ MONDAY AFTERNOON...THE 300/250 MB CIRCULATION
CENTERS ACCELERATE INTO EASTERN NEW MEXICO AND THE TEXAS PANHANDLE
RESULTING IN STRONG UPPER LEVEL SUBSIDENCE OVER AZ. THEREFORE MOSTLY
CLEAR SKIES WITH SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES ARE
FORECAST OVER OUR AREA...SOUTHEAST CA TO SOUTH CENTRAL AZ.

TUESDAY...
THE NEXT IN A SERIES OF PACIFIC WEATHER SYSTEMS WILL MOVE INTO
WESTERN STATES ON TUESDAY. ANY PRECIP WILL BE CONFINED TO PARTS OF
UTAH AND ALONG THE EASTERN AZ BORDER...BUT MAINLY IN NEW MEXICO.
THEREFORE EXCEPT FOR SOME HIGH CLOUDS...FORECASTS WILL REMAIN DRY
WITH SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES.

WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...
A STRONG HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BEGIN BUILDING OVER THE FORECAST
AREA WEDNESDAY...THEN STRENGTHEN INTO THE WEEKEND. THEREFORE NEARLY
CLOUDLESS SKIES ARE EXPECTED WITH MUCH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR
LATE OCTOBER.


&&

.AVIATION...
SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA INCLUDING KPHX...KIWA AND KSDL...
MID AND HIGH CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL
LINGER THROUGH SUNDAY. ISOLATED CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP
SUNDAY AFTERNOON...BUT WILL GENERALLY REMAIN CONFINED TO THE HIGHER
TERRAIN EAST OF PHOENIX.

SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA AND SOUTHWEST ARIZONA INCLUDING KIPL AND KBLH...
MAINLY CLEAR SKIES WITH LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS EXPECTED.

AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDED TAFS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...
A PAIR OF LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS PASSING THROUGH THE AREA WILL BRING A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS TO THE HIGHER TERRAIN
AREAS EAST OF PHOENIX...WITH THE BEST CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION ON
MONDAY AND TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. A GRADUAL DRYING TREND IS
EXPECTED THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD...WITH MINIMUM HUMIDITIES IN
THE LOWER DESERTS RANGING FROM AROUND 20 PERCENT ON TUESDAY TO THE
LOW TO MID TEENS ON SATURDAY. WINDS WILL BE GENERALLY LIGHT AND
FOLLOW TYPICAL DIURNAL PATTERNS EACH DAY.

&&

.PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

AZ...NONE.

CA...NONE.

&&

$$

VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/PHOENIX

DISCUSSION...VASQUEZ
AVIATION...HIRSCH
FIRE WEATHER...MCLANE/CB








000
FXUS65 KPSR 191003
AFDPSR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PHOENIX AZ
300 AM MST SUN OCT 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A SERIES OF WEATHER DISTURBANCES MOVE INTO THE REGION THROUGH EARLY
NEXT WEEK...HOWEVER A RELATIVELY DRY AIRMASS WILL LIMIT
PRECIPITATION CHANCES TO THE MOUNTAINS OF CENTRAL AND EASTERN
ARIZONA. OTHERWISE VARIABLE CLOUDINESS CAN BE EXPECTED...WITH
SLIGHTLY WARMER THAN NORMAL AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES. A STRONG HIGH
PRESSURE SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO REBUILD OVER THE REGION BY THE END OF
NEXT WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
TODAY AND TONIGHT...
A PRETTY COMPLEX LOOKING ATMOSPHERE CONTINUED TO CIRCULATE OVER AZ
THIS MORNING. THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE REGION HAS NOW BECOME
VERTICALLY TILTED TO THE EAST...MEANING THE 250 MB CIRCULATION
CENTER WAS NEAR THE 4 CORNERS...THE 300 MB CIRCULATION CENTER NEAR
FLAGSTAFF...AND THE 500 MB CIRCULATION CENTER OVER NORTHERN BAJA.
MORNING THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE EASTERN RIM AND WHITE MOUNTAINS OF AZ
WERE MOSTLY HIGH BASED AND RELATED TO A STRONG 300 MB DIFLUENT FIELD
IN EASTERN AZ.

SINCE THE TROF OVER AZ WAS VERTICALLY TILTED TO THE EAST...
AGEOSTROPHIC/SECONDARY CIRCULATIONS WERE NOT VERY STRONG AND OUR
QUESTION IS...WHY IS THE GFS MODEL PUMPING LOTS OF BOUNDARY LAYER
MOISTURE NORTH INTO EASTERN AZ FOR TODAY. FOR EXAMPLE...THE GFS
MODELED SOUNDINGS AT TUCSON AND CASA GRANDE FORECAST BOUNDARY LAYER
MOISTURE AT MONSOON LEVELS...I.E 8 DEG C DEWPOINTS BETWEEN 800 AND
850 MB. REGIONAL WEATHER BALLOON SOUNDINGS SATURDAY EVENING DIDNT
SHOW ANY MOISTURE LEVELS THAT HIGH...AND...EVEN THOUGH CHIHUAHUA AND
GUAYMAS MEXICO SOUNDINGS WERE MISSING...GPS-IPW PRECIP WATER (PW)
PLOTS AT 08Z SHOWED THE LEAST AMOUNT OF PW WAS OVER SOUTHEAST AZ AND
NORTHWEST MEXICO JUST SOUTH OF THE SOUTHEAST AZ CORNER. THEREFORE WE
THINK THE GFS MOISTURE LEVELS MAY BE OVERDONE AND WE WILL ADJUST
THEM FOR OUR FORECAST ACCORDINGLY.

FOR TODAY...THE ONLY PLACE WHERE THERE IS A CHANCE OF SHWRS/TSTMS
TODAY IS OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF SOUTHERN GILA COUNTY. EVEN
THOUGH IN OUR MINDS EYE WE HAVE REDUCED THE AMOUNT OF BOUNDARY LAYER
MOISTURE FORECAST BY THE GFS...CONVECTIVE TRIGGER TEMPERATURES WILL
STILL BE MET IN THE MOUNTAINS OF SOUTHERN GILA COUNTY FOR A CHANCE
OF SHWRS. CLEARING TONIGHT.

MONDAY...
ALTHOUGH THE LAGGING AND SLOWER MOVING 500 MB TROF FINALLY SHIFTS
INTO SOUTHEAST AZ MONDAY AFTERNOON...THE 300/250 MB CIRCULATION
CENTERS ACCELERATE INTO EASTERN NEW MEXICO AND THE TEXAS PANHANDLE
RESULTING IN STRONG UPPER LEVEL SUBSIDENCE OVER AZ. THEREFORE MOSTLY
CLEAR SKIES WITH SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES ARE
FORECAST OVER OUR AREA...SOUTHEAST CA TO SOUTH CENTRAL AZ.

TUESDAY...
THE NEXT IN A SERIES OF PACIFIC WEATHER SYSTEMS WILL MOVE INTO
WESTERN STATES ON TUESDAY. ANY PRECIP WILL BE CONFINED TO PARTS OF
UTAH AND ALONG THE EASTERN AZ BORDER...BUT MAINLY IN NEW MEXICO.
THEREFORE EXCEPT FOR SOME HIGH CLOUDS...FORECASTS WILL REMAIN DRY
WITH SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES.

WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...
A STRONG HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BEGIN BUILDING OVER THE FORECAST
AREA WEDNESDAY...THEN STRENGTHEN INTO THE WEEKEND. THEREFORE NEARLY
CLOUDLESS SKIES ARE EXPECTED WITH MUCH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR
LATE OCTOBER.


&&

.AVIATION...
SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA INCLUDING KPHX...KIWA AND KSDL...
MID AND HIGH CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL
LINGER THROUGH SUNDAY. ISOLATED CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP
SUNDAY AFTERNOON...BUT WILL GENERALLY REMAIN CONFINED TO THE HIGHER
TERRAIN EAST OF PHOENIX.

SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA AND SOUTHWEST ARIZONA INCLUDING KIPL AND KBLH...
MAINLY CLEAR SKIES WITH LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS EXPECTED.

AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDED TAFS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...
A PAIR OF LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS PASSING THROUGH THE AREA WILL BRING A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS TO THE HIGHER TERRAIN
AREAS EAST OF PHOENIX...WITH THE BEST CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION ON
MONDAY AND TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. A GRADUAL DRYING TREND IS
EXPECTED THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD...WITH MINIMUM HUMIDITIES IN
THE LOWER DESERTS RANGING FROM AROUND 20 PERCENT ON TUESDAY TO THE
LOW TO MID TEENS ON SATURDAY. WINDS WILL BE GENERALLY LIGHT AND
FOLLOW TYPICAL DIURNAL PATTERNS EACH DAY.

&&

.PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

AZ...NONE.

CA...NONE.

&&

$$

VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/PHOENIX

DISCUSSION...VASQUEZ
AVIATION...HIRSCH
FIRE WEATHER...MCLANE/CB








000
FXUS65 KTWC 190932
AFDTWC
AFDTWC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ
230 AM MST SUN OCT 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...A WEAK WEATHER SYSTEM WILL BRING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TODAY...ESPECIALLY EAST OF TUCSON. WE WILL KEEP A
CHANCE OF SHOWERS IN THE FORECAST UNTIL IT MOVES EAST OF THE REGION
BY WEDNESDAY. STRONG HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BRING DRIER CONDITIONS
THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK ALONG WITH MUCH WARMER TEMPERATURES.

&&

.DISCUSSION...WEAK LOW UNDERCUTTING THE LARGER SCALE RIDGE DRIVING
OUR WEATHER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...ESPECIALLY LATER TODAY INTO
THIS EVENING. CUT-OFF IMPULSE VERY SLOWLY PUSHING ACROSS THE
NORTHERN GULF OF CALIFORNIA INTO NORTHWEST SONORA THIS MORNING.
FAVORABLE UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENT FIELDS IN NORTHEAST QUADRANT AHEAD
OF THE LOW FIRING OFF CONVECTION THIS MORNING INTO EAST CENTRAL AND
NORTHEAST ARIZONA. AVAILABLE MOISTURE HAS CREPT UP TO A LITTLE OVER
.75 OF AN INCH WITH .9 TO 1 INCH IN CLOSER PROXIMITY TO THE LOW. AS
IT SLOWLY PUSHES EASTWARD TODAY A LITTLE DEEPER INTO NORTHERN SONORA
NEAR THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER...EXPECT AN ACTIVE REGION TO CONTINUE
ON THE NORTHEAST QUADRANT...BASICALLY AREAS NORTH AND EAST OF
NOGALES TO POSSIBLY INCLUDE TUCSON BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON OR EARLY
EVENING. BETTER CHANCES IN EASTERN AREAS SUCH AS COCHISE COUNTY.
SOME STORMS MAY GET A LITTLE FRISKY TODAY SO WE`LL NEED TO KEEP AN
EYE ON THE RADAR FOR POTENTIAL SMALL HAIL AND STRONG WINDS AS WELL
AS BRIEF LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN.

FAVORABLE AREA FOR CONVECTION WILL SHIFT SLOWLY EASTWARD DEEPER INTO
NEW MEXICO LATER TONIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING AS THE LOW WOBBLES
SLOWLY ACROSS NORTHERN SONORA. IT WILL REMAIN CUT OFF FOR 48 TO 72
HOURS BEFORE BEING DRAWN INTO HIGHER LATITUDE SUPPORT ENERGY LATE
TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY.

STRONG RIDGE...VERY STRONG RIDGE BUILDING IN THROUGH ARIZONA FROM
THE SOUTH LATER THIS WEEK. ECMWF HEIGHTS AND THICKNESSES SUPPORT MID
90S AS WE FLIRT WITH VERY LATE SEASON 95S FOR TIA FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY (THE LATEST 95 AT TIA IS OCT 26 IN 2001). STRENGTH OF ECMWF
PREFERRED BASED ON VERY FAVORABLE ENSEMBLE MEAN TRENDS AND
NORMALIZED STANDARD DEVIATION TRENDS OVER THE PAST 30 DAYS. SO...WE
WILL TRY TO STEAL SOME POINTS FROM MOS BY LENDING LESS WEIGHT TO
LATE OCTOBER CLIMO AND MORE TO WHAT SEASONAL THICKNESS REGRESSION
ANALYSIS ACTUALLY SUGGESTS FOR 850MB-700MB THICKNESS VALUES AROUND
165.5 TO 166.0DAM.

&&

.AVIATION...VALID THRU 20/09Z.
SKC-SCT CLOUDS MAINLY ABOVE 10K FT AGL SOUTH OF KTUS AND SCT-BKN
NORTH OF KTUS THROUGH 19/18Z AND THERE WILL BE ENOUGH MOISTURE FOR
ISOLD -SHRA/-TSRA EAST OF KTUS.  INCREASING CLOUDS AFT 19/18Z
BECOMING SCT-BKN AROUND 10K FT ALL AREAS WITH A CHANCE OF
-SHRA/-TSRA DEVELOPING FROM AROUND KTUS EASTWARD.  SFC WINDS
GENERALLY LESS THAN 10 KTS THROUGH SUNDAY EXCEPT SOUTHEAST WIND TO
15 KT EASTERN AREAS SUNDAY AFTERNOON.  GUSTY WINDS ARE POSSIBLE
IN/NEAR TSRA THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. AVIATION DISCUSSION
NOT UPDATED FOR TAF AMENDMENTS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE MOVING INTO THE AREA IN
COMBINATION WITH A MODEST MOISTURE INCREASE WILL RESULT IN A CHANCE
OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH TUESDAY OR WEDNESDAY...MAINLY
TUCSON EASTWARD.  DRY CONDITIONS WILL THEN OCCUR AREA WIDE THE
SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK WITH SIGNIFICANTLY ABOVE NORMAL HIGH
TEMPERATURES.  20-FOOT WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE DIURNAL AND LESS THAN
15 MPH THIS WEEKEND AND INTO NEXT WEEK.  SOME GUSTY WINDS ARE
POSSIBLE NEAR ANY THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

$$

VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...YOUTUBE...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/TUCSON

MEYER/MEADOWS










000
FXUS65 KTWC 190932 CCA
AFDTWC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ
230 AM MST SUN OCT 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...A WEAK WEATHER SYSTEM WILL BRING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TODAY...ESPECIALLY EAST OF TUCSON. WE WILL KEEP A
CHANCE OF SHOWERS IN THE FORECAST UNTIL IT MOVES EAST OF THE REGION
BY WEDNESDAY. STRONG HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BRING DRIER CONDITIONS
THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK ALONG WITH MUCH WARMER TEMPERATURES.

&&

.DISCUSSION...WEAK LOW UNDERCUTTING THE LARGER SCALE RIDGE DRIVING
OUR WEATHER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...ESPECIALLY LATER TODAY INTO
THIS EVENING. CUT-OFF IMPULSE VERY SLOWLY PUSHING ACROSS THE
NORTHERN GULF OF CALIFORNIA INTO NORTHWEST SONORA THIS MORNING.
FAVORABLE UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENT FIELDS IN NORTHEAST QUADRANT AHEAD
OF THE LOW FIRING OFF CONVECTION THIS MORNING INTO EAST CENTRAL AND
NORTHEAST ARIZONA. AVAILABLE MOISTURE HAS CREPT UP TO A LITTLE OVER
.75 OF AN INCH WITH .9 TO 1 INCH IN CLOSER PROXIMITY TO THE LOW. AS
IT SLOWLY PUSHES EASTWARD TODAY A LITTLE DEEPER INTO NORTHERN SONORA
NEAR THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER...EXPECT AN ACTIVE REGION TO CONTINUE
ON THE NORTHEAST QUADRANT...BASICALLY AREAS NORTH AND EAST OF
NOGALES TO POSSIBLY INCLUDE TUCSON BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON OR EARLY
EVENING. BETTER CHANCES IN EASTERN AREAS SUCH AS COCHISE COUNTY.
SOME STORMS MAY GET A LITTLE FRISKY TODAY SO WE`LL NEED TO KEEP AN
EYE ON THE RADAR FOR POTENTIAL SMALL HAIL AND STRONG WINDS AS WELL
AS BRIEF LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN.

FAVORABLE AREA FOR CONVECTION WILL SHIFT SLOWLY EASTWARD DEEPER INTO
NEW MEXICO LATER TONIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING AS THE LOW WOBBLES
SLOWLY ACROSS NORTHERN SONORA. IT WILL REMAIN CUT OFF FOR 48 TO 72
HOURS BEFORE BEING DRAWN INTO HIGHER LATITUDE SUPPORT ENERGY LATE
TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY.

STRONG RIDGE...VERY STRONG RIDGE BUILDING IN THROUGH ARIZONA FROM
THE SOUTH LATER THIS WEEK. ECMWF HEIGHTS AND THICKNESSES SUPPORT MID
90S AS WE FLIRT WITH VERY LATE SEASON 95S FOR TIA FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY (THE LATEST 95 AT TIA IS OCT 26 IN 2001). STRENGTH OF ECMWF
PREFERRED BASED ON VERY FAVORABLE ENSEMBLE MEAN TRENDS AND
NORMALIZED STANDARD DEVIATION TRENDS OVER THE PAST 30 DAYS. SO...WE
WILL TRY TO STEAL SOME POINTS FROM MOS BY LENDING LESS WEIGHT TO
LATE OCTOBER CLIMO AND MORE TO WHAT SEASONAL THICKNESS REGRESSION
ANALYSIS ACTUALLY SUGGESTS FOR 850MB-700MB THICKNESS VALUES AROUND
165.5 TO 166.0DAM.

&&

.AVIATION...VALID THRU 20/09Z.
SKC-SCT CLOUDS MAINLY ABOVE 10K FT AGL SOUTH OF KTUS AND SCT-BKN
NORTH OF KTUS THROUGH 19/18Z AND THERE WILL BE ENOUGH MOISTURE FOR
ISOLD -SHRA/-TSRA EAST OF KTUS.  INCREASING CLOUDS AFT 19/18Z
BECOMING SCT-BKN AROUND 10K FT ALL AREAS WITH A CHANCE OF
-SHRA/-TSRA DEVELOPING FROM AROUND KTUS EASTWARD.  SFC WINDS
GENERALLY LESS THAN 10 KTS THROUGH SUNDAY EXCEPT SOUTHEAST WIND TO
15 KT EASTERN AREAS SUNDAY AFTERNOON.  GUSTY WINDS ARE POSSIBLE
IN/NEAR TSRA THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. AVIATION DISCUSSION
NOT UPDATED FOR TAF AMENDMENTS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE MOVING INTO THE AREA IN
COMBINATION WITH A MODEST MOISTURE INCREASE WILL RESULT IN A CHANCE
OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH TUESDAY OR WEDNESDAY...MAINLY
TUCSON EASTWARD.  DRY CONDITIONS WILL THEN OCCUR AREA WIDE THE
SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK WITH SIGNIFICANTLY ABOVE NORMAL HIGH
TEMPERATURES.  20-FOOT WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE DIURNAL AND LESS THAN
15 MPH THIS WEEKEND AND INTO NEXT WEEK.  SOME GUSTY WINDS ARE
POSSIBLE NEAR ANY THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

$$

VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...YOUTUBE...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/TUCSON

MEYER/MEADOWS








000
FXUS65 KTWC 190932 CCA
AFDTWC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ
230 AM MST SUN OCT 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...A WEAK WEATHER SYSTEM WILL BRING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TODAY...ESPECIALLY EAST OF TUCSON. WE WILL KEEP A
CHANCE OF SHOWERS IN THE FORECAST UNTIL IT MOVES EAST OF THE REGION
BY WEDNESDAY. STRONG HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BRING DRIER CONDITIONS
THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK ALONG WITH MUCH WARMER TEMPERATURES.

&&

.DISCUSSION...WEAK LOW UNDERCUTTING THE LARGER SCALE RIDGE DRIVING
OUR WEATHER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...ESPECIALLY LATER TODAY INTO
THIS EVENING. CUT-OFF IMPULSE VERY SLOWLY PUSHING ACROSS THE
NORTHERN GULF OF CALIFORNIA INTO NORTHWEST SONORA THIS MORNING.
FAVORABLE UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENT FIELDS IN NORTHEAST QUADRANT AHEAD
OF THE LOW FIRING OFF CONVECTION THIS MORNING INTO EAST CENTRAL AND
NORTHEAST ARIZONA. AVAILABLE MOISTURE HAS CREPT UP TO A LITTLE OVER
.75 OF AN INCH WITH .9 TO 1 INCH IN CLOSER PROXIMITY TO THE LOW. AS
IT SLOWLY PUSHES EASTWARD TODAY A LITTLE DEEPER INTO NORTHERN SONORA
NEAR THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER...EXPECT AN ACTIVE REGION TO CONTINUE
ON THE NORTHEAST QUADRANT...BASICALLY AREAS NORTH AND EAST OF
NOGALES TO POSSIBLY INCLUDE TUCSON BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON OR EARLY
EVENING. BETTER CHANCES IN EASTERN AREAS SUCH AS COCHISE COUNTY.
SOME STORMS MAY GET A LITTLE FRISKY TODAY SO WE`LL NEED TO KEEP AN
EYE ON THE RADAR FOR POTENTIAL SMALL HAIL AND STRONG WINDS AS WELL
AS BRIEF LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN.

FAVORABLE AREA FOR CONVECTION WILL SHIFT SLOWLY EASTWARD DEEPER INTO
NEW MEXICO LATER TONIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING AS THE LOW WOBBLES
SLOWLY ACROSS NORTHERN SONORA. IT WILL REMAIN CUT OFF FOR 48 TO 72
HOURS BEFORE BEING DRAWN INTO HIGHER LATITUDE SUPPORT ENERGY LATE
TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY.

STRONG RIDGE...VERY STRONG RIDGE BUILDING IN THROUGH ARIZONA FROM
THE SOUTH LATER THIS WEEK. ECMWF HEIGHTS AND THICKNESSES SUPPORT MID
90S AS WE FLIRT WITH VERY LATE SEASON 95S FOR TIA FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY (THE LATEST 95 AT TIA IS OCT 26 IN 2001). STRENGTH OF ECMWF
PREFERRED BASED ON VERY FAVORABLE ENSEMBLE MEAN TRENDS AND
NORMALIZED STANDARD DEVIATION TRENDS OVER THE PAST 30 DAYS. SO...WE
WILL TRY TO STEAL SOME POINTS FROM MOS BY LENDING LESS WEIGHT TO
LATE OCTOBER CLIMO AND MORE TO WHAT SEASONAL THICKNESS REGRESSION
ANALYSIS ACTUALLY SUGGESTS FOR 850MB-700MB THICKNESS VALUES AROUND
165.5 TO 166.0DAM.

&&

.AVIATION...VALID THRU 20/09Z.
SKC-SCT CLOUDS MAINLY ABOVE 10K FT AGL SOUTH OF KTUS AND SCT-BKN
NORTH OF KTUS THROUGH 19/18Z AND THERE WILL BE ENOUGH MOISTURE FOR
ISOLD -SHRA/-TSRA EAST OF KTUS.  INCREASING CLOUDS AFT 19/18Z
BECOMING SCT-BKN AROUND 10K FT ALL AREAS WITH A CHANCE OF
-SHRA/-TSRA DEVELOPING FROM AROUND KTUS EASTWARD.  SFC WINDS
GENERALLY LESS THAN 10 KTS THROUGH SUNDAY EXCEPT SOUTHEAST WIND TO
15 KT EASTERN AREAS SUNDAY AFTERNOON.  GUSTY WINDS ARE POSSIBLE
IN/NEAR TSRA THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. AVIATION DISCUSSION
NOT UPDATED FOR TAF AMENDMENTS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE MOVING INTO THE AREA IN
COMBINATION WITH A MODEST MOISTURE INCREASE WILL RESULT IN A CHANCE
OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH TUESDAY OR WEDNESDAY...MAINLY
TUCSON EASTWARD.  DRY CONDITIONS WILL THEN OCCUR AREA WIDE THE
SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK WITH SIGNIFICANTLY ABOVE NORMAL HIGH
TEMPERATURES.  20-FOOT WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE DIURNAL AND LESS THAN
15 MPH THIS WEEKEND AND INTO NEXT WEEK.  SOME GUSTY WINDS ARE
POSSIBLE NEAR ANY THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

$$

VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...YOUTUBE...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/TUCSON

MEYER/MEADOWS









000
FXUS65 KTWC 190920
AFDTWC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ
230 AM MST SUN OCT 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...A WEAK WEATHER SYSTEM WILL BRING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TODAY...ESPECIALLY EAST OF TUCSON. WE WILL KEEP A
CHANCE OF SHOWERS IN THE FORECAST UNTIL IT MOVES EAST OF THE REGION
BY WEDNESDAY. STRONG HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BRING DRIER CONDITIONS
THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK ALONG WITH MUCH WARMER TEMPERATURES.

&&

.DISCUSSION...WEAK LOW UNDERCUTTING THE LARGER SCALE RIDGE DRIVING
OUR WEATHER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...ESPECIALLY LATER TODAY INTO
THIS EVENING. CUT-OFF IMPULSE VERY SLOWLY PUSHING ACROSS THE
NORTHERN GULF OF CALIFORNIA INTO NORTHWEST SONORA THIS MORNING.
FAVORABLE UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENT FIELDS IN NORTHWEST QUADRANT AHEAD
OF THE LOW FIRING OFF CONVECTION THIS MORNING INTO EAST CENTRAL AND
NORTHEAST ARIZONA. AVAILABLE MOISTURE HAS CREPT UP TO A LITTLE OVER
.75 OF AN INCH WITH .9 TO 1 INCH IN CLOSER PROXIMITY TO THE LOW. AS
IT SLOWLY PUSHES EASTWARD TODAY A LITTLE DEEPER INTO NORTHERN SONORA
NEAR THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER...EXPECT AN ACTIVE REGION TO CONTINUE
ON THE NORTHWEST QUADRANT...BASICALLY AREAS NORTH AND EAST OF
NOGALES TO POSSIBLY INCLUDE TUCSON BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON OR EARLY
EVENING. BETTER CHANCES IN EASTERN AREAS SUCH AS COCHISE COUNTY.
SOME STORMS MAY GET A LITTLE FRISKY TODAY SO WE`LL NEED TO KEEP AN
EYE ON THE RADAR FOR POTENTIAL SMALL HAIL AND STRONG WINDS AS WELL
AS BRIEF LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN.

FAVORABLE AREA FOR CONVECTION WILL SHIFT SLOWLY EASTWARD DEEPER INTO
NEW MEXICO LATER TONIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING AS THE LOW WOBBLES
SLOWLY ACROSS NORTHERN SONORA. IT WILL REMAIN CUT OFF FOR UP TO 72
HOURS BEFORE BEING DRAWN INTO HIGHER LATITUDE SUPPORT ENERGY LATE
TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY.

STRONG RIDGE...VERY STRONG RIDGE BUILDING IN THROUGH ARIZONA FROM
THE SOUTH LATER THIS WEEK. ECMWF HEIGHTS AND THICKNESSES SUPPORT MID
90S AS WE FLIRT WITH VERY LATE SEASON 95S FOR TIA FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY (THE LATEST 95 AT TIA IS OCT 26 IN 2001). STRENGTH OF ECMWF
PREFERRED BASED ON VERY FAVORABLE ENSEMBLE MEAN TRENDS AND
NORMALIZED STANDARD DEVIATION TRENDS OVER THE PAST 30 DAYS. SO...WE
WILL TRY TO STEAL SOME POINTS FROM MOS BY LENDING LESS WEIGHT TO
LATE OCTOBER CLIMO AND MORE TO WHAT SEASONAL THICKNESS REGRESSION
ANALYSIS ACTUALLY SUGGESTS FOR 850MB-700MB THICKNESS VALUES AROUND
165.5 TO 166.0DAM.

&&

.AVIATION...VALID THRU 20/09Z.
SKC-SCT CLOUDS MAINLY ABOVE 10K FT AGL SOUTH OF KTUS AND SCT-BKN
NORTH OF KTUS THROUGH 19/18Z AND THERE WILL BE ENOUGH MOISTURE FOR
ISOLD -SHRA/-TSRA EAST OF KTUS.  INCREASING CLOUDS AFT 19/18Z
BECOMING SCT-BKN AROUND 10K FT ALL AREAS WITH A CHANCE OF
-SHRA/-TSRA DEVELOPING FROM AROUND KTUS EASTWARD.  SFC WINDS
GENERALLY LESS THAN 10 KTS THROUGH SUNDAY EXCEPT SOUTHEAST WIND TO
15 KT EASTERN AREAS SUNDAY AFTERNOON.  GUSTY WINDS ARE POSSIBLE
IN/NEAR TSRA THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. AVIATION DISCUSSION
NOT UPDATED FOR TAF AMENDMENTS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE MOVING INTO THE AREA IN
COMBINATION WITH A MODEST MOISTURE INCREASE WILL RESULT IN A CHANCE
OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH TUESDAY OR WEDNESDAY...MAINLY
TUCSON EASTWARD.  DRY CONDITIONS WILL THEN OCCUR AREA WIDE THE
SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK WITH SIGNIFICANTLY ABOVE NORMAL HIGH
TEMPERATURES.  20-FOOT WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE DIURNAL AND LESS THAN
15 MPH THIS WEEKEND AND INTO NEXT WEEK.  SOME GUSTY WINDS ARE
POSSIBLE NEAR ANY THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

$$

VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...YOUTUBE...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/TUCSON

MEYER/MEADOWS





000
FXUS65 KPSR 190533
AFDPSR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PHOENIX AZ
1035 PM MST SAT OCT 18 2014

.UPDATE...UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
A SERIES OF WEATHER DISTURBANCES MOVE INTO THE REGION THROUGH EARLY
NEXT WEEK...HOWEVER A RELATIVELY DRY AIRMASS WILL LIMIT ANY
PRECIPITATION CHANCES TO THE MOUNTAINS OF CENTRAL AND EASTERN
ARIZONA. OTHERWISE VARIABLE CLOUDINESS CAN BE EXPECTED...WITH
SLIGHTLY WARMER THAN NORMAL AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES. A STRONG HIGH
PRESSURE SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO REBUILD OVER THE REGION BY THE END OF
NEXT WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
LATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS BURGEONING MID CLOUDS ACROSS CENTRAL
AND EASTERN AZ ASSOCIATED WITH STRONG QG-FORCED ASCENT AHEAD OF A
SHORT-WAVE TROUGH MOVING EASTWARD THROUGH SOUTHERN CA. ISOLATED
CONVECTION DEVELOPED EARLIER ACROSS EASTERN AND NORTHWESTERN
AZ...THOUGH CAMS CONTINUE TO SUGGEST THAT THE OVERNIGHT WILL REMAIN
DRY ACROSS THE LOWER DESERTS. THIS SEEMS REASONABLE GIVEN THE LACK
OF DEEPER MOISTURE...WHICH IS EVIDENT ON THE LATEST FGZ/TWC
SOUNDINGS. FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK AND NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES WERE
MADE THIS EVENING.

&&

.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
THE FORECAST REMAINS LARGELY ON TRACK AS THE TROUGH OFF THE
CALIFORNIA COAST WILL DRIFT INLAND TONIGHT AND MOVE THROUGH ARIZONA
ON SUNDAY. THERE ARE A NUMBER OF FACTORS WORKING AGAINST WIDESPREAD
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS WITH THIS SYSTEM...PROBABLY THE BIGGEST OF
WHICH IS THE SHEARED NATURE OF THE SYSTEM AND THE RELATIVELY MEAGER
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES AHEAD OF THE TROUGH. MOST OF THE SHOWERS
AND/OR STORMS THAT DEVELOP WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL BE DIURNALLY DRIVEN
AND MAINLY LOCATED IN THE MOUNTAINS NORTH/EAST OF PHOENIX. ENSEMBLE
PROBABILITIES INDICATE THE LOWER DESERTS WILL REMAIN ENTIRELY DRY
WHILE LOCATIONS EAST OF PHOENIX FROM GLOBE TO HILLTOP STAND A BETTER
SHOT AT SEEING RAINFALL. LOCAL WRF ENSEMBLE AND SSEO ALSO INDICATES
BEST CHANCES IN SOUTHERN GILA COUNTY AND I WILL RETAIN 30 POPS IN
THOSE AREAS. SOME OF THE 12Z GUIDANCE IS INDICATING LOWER VALUES
/LIKELY DUE TO A SUBTLE DOWNWARD TREND IN PWATS AND SLIGHT SOUTHERN
SHIFT IN THE TRACK OF THE UPPER LOW/ BUT NONETHELESS THERE`S AT
LEAST A CHANCE OF RAINFALL IN THESE AREAS.

THE FLOW BEHIND THIS TROUGH WILL TEMPORARILY TURN OUT OF THE EAST ON
MONDAY AND IF ANY STORMS TRY AND DEVELOP IN THE MOUNTAINS MONDAY
AFTERNOON...THEY WILL RAPIDLY DISSIPATE AS THEY MOVE INTO A MUCH
MORE STABLE AIRMASS ACROSS THE LOWER DESERTS. ENSEMBLE PROBS ARE
ONCE AGAIN ELEVATED IN THE MOUNTAINS EAST OF PHOENIX BUT BY THEN THE
UPPER TROUGH SHOULD BE WELL ON ITS WAY INTO NEW MEXICO. LIKE
SUNDAY...ANY STORMS THAT DEVELOP WILL BE DIURNAL IN NATURE AND
SHOULD DISSIPATE SHORTLY BEFORE SUNSET.

TUESDAY WILL SEE THE TROUGH CURRENTLY NEAR THE PAC NW MOVE INLAND
AND MOVE MAINLY THROUGH UTAH. THIS CONTINUES THE NORTHWARD TREND
SEEN RECENTLY IN THE MODELS. AT THIS POINT IT APPEARS THE ONLY
IMPACTS ACROSS THIS PART OF ARIZONA AND SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA WILL BE
IN THE FORM OF INCREASING HIGH CLOUDS AND A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
MOUNTAIN SHOWERS EAST OF PHOENIX. MADE SLIGHT DOWNWARD REVISIONS TO
POPS ON TUESDAY...ALL IN ALL ITS SHAPING UP TO BE A RELATIVELY QUIET
WEEK ACROSS THE AREA. DESERT TEMPS WILL REMAIN IN THE UPPER 80S TO
LOWER 90S EACH DAY WITH SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL LOWS.

&&

.AVIATION...
SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA INCLUDING KPHX...KIWA AND KSDL...
MID AND HIGH CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL
LINGER THROUGH SUNDAY. ISOLATED CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP
SUNDAY AFTERNOON...BUT WILL GENERALLY REMAIN CONFINED TO THE HIGHER
TERRAIN EAST OF PHOENIX.

SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA AND SOUTHWEST ARIZONA INCLUDING KIPL AND KBLH...
MAINLY CLEAR SKIES WITH LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS EXPECTED.

AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDED TAFS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...
A PAIR OF LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS PASSING THROUGH THE AREA WILL BRING A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS TO THE HIGHER TERRAIN
AREAS EAST OF PHOENIX...WITH THE BEST CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION ON
MONDAY AND TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. A GRADUAL DRYING TREND IS
EXPECTED THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD...WITH MINIMUM HUMIDITIES IN
THE LOWER DESERTS RANGING FROM AROUND 20 PERCENT ON TUESDAY TO THE
LOW TO MID TEENS ON SATURDAY. WINDS WILL BE GENERALLY LIGHT AND
FOLLOW TYPICAL DIURNAL PATTERNS EACH DAY.

&&

.PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

AZ...NONE.

CA...NONE.

&&

$$

VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/PHOENIX

DISCUSSION...HIRSCH
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...LEINS
AVIATION...HIRSCH
FIRE WEATHER...MCLANE/CB





000
FXUS65 KPSR 190533
AFDPSR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PHOENIX AZ
1035 PM MST SAT OCT 18 2014

.UPDATE...UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
A SERIES OF WEATHER DISTURBANCES MOVE INTO THE REGION THROUGH EARLY
NEXT WEEK...HOWEVER A RELATIVELY DRY AIRMASS WILL LIMIT ANY
PRECIPITATION CHANCES TO THE MOUNTAINS OF CENTRAL AND EASTERN
ARIZONA. OTHERWISE VARIABLE CLOUDINESS CAN BE EXPECTED...WITH
SLIGHTLY WARMER THAN NORMAL AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES. A STRONG HIGH
PRESSURE SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO REBUILD OVER THE REGION BY THE END OF
NEXT WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
LATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS BURGEONING MID CLOUDS ACROSS CENTRAL
AND EASTERN AZ ASSOCIATED WITH STRONG QG-FORCED ASCENT AHEAD OF A
SHORT-WAVE TROUGH MOVING EASTWARD THROUGH SOUTHERN CA. ISOLATED
CONVECTION DEVELOPED EARLIER ACROSS EASTERN AND NORTHWESTERN
AZ...THOUGH CAMS CONTINUE TO SUGGEST THAT THE OVERNIGHT WILL REMAIN
DRY ACROSS THE LOWER DESERTS. THIS SEEMS REASONABLE GIVEN THE LACK
OF DEEPER MOISTURE...WHICH IS EVIDENT ON THE LATEST FGZ/TWC
SOUNDINGS. FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK AND NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES WERE
MADE THIS EVENING.

&&

.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
THE FORECAST REMAINS LARGELY ON TRACK AS THE TROUGH OFF THE
CALIFORNIA COAST WILL DRIFT INLAND TONIGHT AND MOVE THROUGH ARIZONA
ON SUNDAY. THERE ARE A NUMBER OF FACTORS WORKING AGAINST WIDESPREAD
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS WITH THIS SYSTEM...PROBABLY THE BIGGEST OF
WHICH IS THE SHEARED NATURE OF THE SYSTEM AND THE RELATIVELY MEAGER
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES AHEAD OF THE TROUGH. MOST OF THE SHOWERS
AND/OR STORMS THAT DEVELOP WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL BE DIURNALLY DRIVEN
AND MAINLY LOCATED IN THE MOUNTAINS NORTH/EAST OF PHOENIX. ENSEMBLE
PROBABILITIES INDICATE THE LOWER DESERTS WILL REMAIN ENTIRELY DRY
WHILE LOCATIONS EAST OF PHOENIX FROM GLOBE TO HILLTOP STAND A BETTER
SHOT AT SEEING RAINFALL. LOCAL WRF ENSEMBLE AND SSEO ALSO INDICATES
BEST CHANCES IN SOUTHERN GILA COUNTY AND I WILL RETAIN 30 POPS IN
THOSE AREAS. SOME OF THE 12Z GUIDANCE IS INDICATING LOWER VALUES
/LIKELY DUE TO A SUBTLE DOWNWARD TREND IN PWATS AND SLIGHT SOUTHERN
SHIFT IN THE TRACK OF THE UPPER LOW/ BUT NONETHELESS THERE`S AT
LEAST A CHANCE OF RAINFALL IN THESE AREAS.

THE FLOW BEHIND THIS TROUGH WILL TEMPORARILY TURN OUT OF THE EAST ON
MONDAY AND IF ANY STORMS TRY AND DEVELOP IN THE MOUNTAINS MONDAY
AFTERNOON...THEY WILL RAPIDLY DISSIPATE AS THEY MOVE INTO A MUCH
MORE STABLE AIRMASS ACROSS THE LOWER DESERTS. ENSEMBLE PROBS ARE
ONCE AGAIN ELEVATED IN THE MOUNTAINS EAST OF PHOENIX BUT BY THEN THE
UPPER TROUGH SHOULD BE WELL ON ITS WAY INTO NEW MEXICO. LIKE
SUNDAY...ANY STORMS THAT DEVELOP WILL BE DIURNAL IN NATURE AND
SHOULD DISSIPATE SHORTLY BEFORE SUNSET.

TUESDAY WILL SEE THE TROUGH CURRENTLY NEAR THE PAC NW MOVE INLAND
AND MOVE MAINLY THROUGH UTAH. THIS CONTINUES THE NORTHWARD TREND
SEEN RECENTLY IN THE MODELS. AT THIS POINT IT APPEARS THE ONLY
IMPACTS ACROSS THIS PART OF ARIZONA AND SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA WILL BE
IN THE FORM OF INCREASING HIGH CLOUDS AND A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
MOUNTAIN SHOWERS EAST OF PHOENIX. MADE SLIGHT DOWNWARD REVISIONS TO
POPS ON TUESDAY...ALL IN ALL ITS SHAPING UP TO BE A RELATIVELY QUIET
WEEK ACROSS THE AREA. DESERT TEMPS WILL REMAIN IN THE UPPER 80S TO
LOWER 90S EACH DAY WITH SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL LOWS.

&&

.AVIATION...
SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA INCLUDING KPHX...KIWA AND KSDL...
MID AND HIGH CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL
LINGER THROUGH SUNDAY. ISOLATED CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP
SUNDAY AFTERNOON...BUT WILL GENERALLY REMAIN CONFINED TO THE HIGHER
TERRAIN EAST OF PHOENIX.

SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA AND SOUTHWEST ARIZONA INCLUDING KIPL AND KBLH...
MAINLY CLEAR SKIES WITH LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS EXPECTED.

AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDED TAFS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...
A PAIR OF LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS PASSING THROUGH THE AREA WILL BRING A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS TO THE HIGHER TERRAIN
AREAS EAST OF PHOENIX...WITH THE BEST CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION ON
MONDAY AND TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. A GRADUAL DRYING TREND IS
EXPECTED THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD...WITH MINIMUM HUMIDITIES IN
THE LOWER DESERTS RANGING FROM AROUND 20 PERCENT ON TUESDAY TO THE
LOW TO MID TEENS ON SATURDAY. WINDS WILL BE GENERALLY LIGHT AND
FOLLOW TYPICAL DIURNAL PATTERNS EACH DAY.

&&

.PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

AZ...NONE.

CA...NONE.

&&

$$

VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/PHOENIX

DISCUSSION...HIRSCH
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...LEINS
AVIATION...HIRSCH
FIRE WEATHER...MCLANE/CB






000
FXUS65 KPSR 190416
AFDPSR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PHOENIX AZ
915 PM MST SAT OCT 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A SERIES OF WEATHER DISTURBANCES MOVE INTO THE REGION THROUGH EARLY
NEXT WEEK...HOWEVER A RELATIVELY DRY AIRMASS WILL LIMIT ANY
PRECIPITATION CHANCES TO THE MOUNTAINS OF CENTRAL AND EASTERN
ARIZONA. OTHERWISE VARIABLE CLOUDINESS CAN BE EXPECTED...WITH
SLIGHTLY WARMER THAN NORMAL AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES. A STRONG HIGH
PRESSURE SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO REBUILD OVER THE REGION BY THE END OF
NEXT WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
LATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS BURGEONING MID CLOUDS ACROSS CENTRAL
AND EASTERN AZ ASSOCIATED WITH STRONG QG-FORCED ASCENT AHEAD OF A
SHORT-WAVE TROUGH MOVING EASTWARD THROUGH SOUTHERN CA. ISOLATED
CONVECTION DEVELOPED EARLIER ACROSS EASTERN AND NORTHWESTERN
AZ...THOUGH CAMS CONTINUE TO SUGGEST THAT THE OVERNIGHT WILL REMAIN
DRY ACROSS THE LOWER DESERTS. THIS SEEMS REASONABLE GIVEN THE LACK
OF DEEPER MOISTURE...WHICH IS EVIDENT ON THE LATEST FGZ/TWC
SOUNDINGS. FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK AND NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES WERE
MADE THIS EVENING.

&&

.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
THE FORECAST REMAINS LARGELY ON TRACK AS THE TROUGH OFF THE
CALIFORNIA COAST WILL DRIFT INLAND TONIGHT AND MOVE THROUGH ARIZONA
ON SUNDAY. THERE ARE A NUMBER OF FACTORS WORKING AGAINST WIDESPREAD
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS WITH THIS SYSTEM...PROBABLY THE BIGGEST OF
WHICH IS THE SHEARED NATURE OF THE SYSTEM AND THE RELATIVELY MEAGER
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES AHEAD OF THE TROUGH. MOST OF THE SHOWERS
AND/OR STORMS THAT DEVELOP WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL BE DIURNALLY DRIVEN
AND MAINLY LOCATED IN THE MOUNTAINS NORTH/EAST OF PHOENIX. ENSEMBLE
PROBABILITIES INDICATE THE LOWER DESERTS WILL REMAIN ENTIRELY DRY
WHILE LOCATIONS EAST OF PHOENIX FROM GLOBE TO HILLTOP STAND A BETTER
SHOT AT SEEING RAINFALL. LOCAL WRF ENSEMBLE AND SSEO ALSO INDICATES
BEST CHANCES IN SOUTHERN GILA COUNTY AND I WILL RETAIN 30 POPS IN
THOSE AREAS. SOME OF THE 12Z GUIDANCE IS INDICATING LOWER VALUES
/LIKELY DUE TO A SUBTLE DOWNWARD TREND IN PWATS AND SLIGHT SOUTHERN
SHIFT IN THE TRACK OF THE UPPER LOW/ BUT NONETHELESS THERE`S AT
LEAST A CHANCE OF RAINFALL IN THESE AREAS.

THE FLOW BEHIND THIS TROUGH WILL TEMPORARILY TURN OUT OF THE EAST ON
MONDAY AND IF ANY STORMS TRY AND DEVELOP IN THE MOUNTAINS MONDAY
AFTERNOON...THEY WILL RAPIDLY DISSIPATE AS THEY MOVE INTO A MUCH
MORE STABLE AIRMASS ACROSS THE LOWER DESERTS. ENSEMBLE PROBS ARE
ONCE AGAIN ELEVATED IN THE MOUNTAINS EAST OF PHOENIX BUT BY THEN THE
UPPER TROUGH SHOULD BE WELL ON ITS WAY INTO NEW MEXICO. LIKE
SUNDAY...ANY STORMS THAT DEVELOP WILL BE DIURNAL IN NATURE AND
SHOULD DISSIPATE SHORTLY BEFORE SUNSET.

TUESDAY WILL SEE THE TROUGH CURRENTLY NEAR THE PAC NW MOVE INLAND
AND MOVE MAINLY THROUGH UTAH. THIS CONTINUES THE NORTHWARD TREND
SEEN RECENTLY IN THE MODELS. AT THIS POINT IT APPEARS THE ONLY
IMPACTS ACROSS THIS PART OF ARIZONA AND SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA WILL BE
IN THE FORM OF INCREASING HIGH CLOUDS AND A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
MOUNTAIN SHOWERS EAST OF PHOENIX. MADE SLIGHT DOWNWARD REVISIONS TO
POPS ON TUESDAY...ALL IN ALL ITS SHAPING UP TO BE A RELATIVELY QUIET
WEEK ACROSS THE AREA. DESERT TEMPS WILL REMAIN IN THE UPPER 80S TO
LOWER 90S EACH DAY WITH SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL LOWS.

&&

.AVIATION...
SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA INCLUDING KPHX...KIWA AND KSDL...SOUTHEAST
CALIFORNIA AND SOUTHWEST ARIZONA INCLUDING KIPL AND KBLH...

SCT MID AND HIGH CLOUDS WILL GRADUALLY CLEAR OUT OVERNIGHT. WINDS AT
ALL TAF SITES WILL REMAIN MAINLY LIGHT AND VARIABLE THROUGH SUNDAY
MORNING.

AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDED TAFS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...
A PAIR OF LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS PASSING THROUGH THE AREA WILL BRING A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS TO THE HIGHER TERRAIN
AREAS EAST OF PHOENIX...WITH THE BEST CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION ON
MONDAY AND TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. A GRADUAL DRYING TREND IS
EXPECTED THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD...WITH MINIMUM HUMIDITIES IN
THE LOWER DESERTS RANGING FROM AROUND 20 PERCENT ON TUESDAY TO THE
LOW TO MID TEENS ON SATURDAY. WINDS WILL BE GENERALLY LIGHT AND
FOLLOW TYPICAL DIURNAL PATTERNS EACH DAY.

&&

.PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

AZ...NONE.

CA...NONE.

&&

$$

VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/PHOENIX

DISCUSSION...HIRSCH
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...LEINS
AVIATION...MCLANE
FIRE WEATHER...MCLANE/CB






000
FXUS65 KPSR 190416
AFDPSR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PHOENIX AZ
915 PM MST SAT OCT 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A SERIES OF WEATHER DISTURBANCES MOVE INTO THE REGION THROUGH EARLY
NEXT WEEK...HOWEVER A RELATIVELY DRY AIRMASS WILL LIMIT ANY
PRECIPITATION CHANCES TO THE MOUNTAINS OF CENTRAL AND EASTERN
ARIZONA. OTHERWISE VARIABLE CLOUDINESS CAN BE EXPECTED...WITH
SLIGHTLY WARMER THAN NORMAL AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES. A STRONG HIGH
PRESSURE SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO REBUILD OVER THE REGION BY THE END OF
NEXT WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
LATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS BURGEONING MID CLOUDS ACROSS CENTRAL
AND EASTERN AZ ASSOCIATED WITH STRONG QG-FORCED ASCENT AHEAD OF A
SHORT-WAVE TROUGH MOVING EASTWARD THROUGH SOUTHERN CA. ISOLATED
CONVECTION DEVELOPED EARLIER ACROSS EASTERN AND NORTHWESTERN
AZ...THOUGH CAMS CONTINUE TO SUGGEST THAT THE OVERNIGHT WILL REMAIN
DRY ACROSS THE LOWER DESERTS. THIS SEEMS REASONABLE GIVEN THE LACK
OF DEEPER MOISTURE...WHICH IS EVIDENT ON THE LATEST FGZ/TWC
SOUNDINGS. FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK AND NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES WERE
MADE THIS EVENING.

&&

.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
THE FORECAST REMAINS LARGELY ON TRACK AS THE TROUGH OFF THE
CALIFORNIA COAST WILL DRIFT INLAND TONIGHT AND MOVE THROUGH ARIZONA
ON SUNDAY. THERE ARE A NUMBER OF FACTORS WORKING AGAINST WIDESPREAD
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS WITH THIS SYSTEM...PROBABLY THE BIGGEST OF
WHICH IS THE SHEARED NATURE OF THE SYSTEM AND THE RELATIVELY MEAGER
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES AHEAD OF THE TROUGH. MOST OF THE SHOWERS
AND/OR STORMS THAT DEVELOP WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL BE DIURNALLY DRIVEN
AND MAINLY LOCATED IN THE MOUNTAINS NORTH/EAST OF PHOENIX. ENSEMBLE
PROBABILITIES INDICATE THE LOWER DESERTS WILL REMAIN ENTIRELY DRY
WHILE LOCATIONS EAST OF PHOENIX FROM GLOBE TO HILLTOP STAND A BETTER
SHOT AT SEEING RAINFALL. LOCAL WRF ENSEMBLE AND SSEO ALSO INDICATES
BEST CHANCES IN SOUTHERN GILA COUNTY AND I WILL RETAIN 30 POPS IN
THOSE AREAS. SOME OF THE 12Z GUIDANCE IS INDICATING LOWER VALUES
/LIKELY DUE TO A SUBTLE DOWNWARD TREND IN PWATS AND SLIGHT SOUTHERN
SHIFT IN THE TRACK OF THE UPPER LOW/ BUT NONETHELESS THERE`S AT
LEAST A CHANCE OF RAINFALL IN THESE AREAS.

THE FLOW BEHIND THIS TROUGH WILL TEMPORARILY TURN OUT OF THE EAST ON
MONDAY AND IF ANY STORMS TRY AND DEVELOP IN THE MOUNTAINS MONDAY
AFTERNOON...THEY WILL RAPIDLY DISSIPATE AS THEY MOVE INTO A MUCH
MORE STABLE AIRMASS ACROSS THE LOWER DESERTS. ENSEMBLE PROBS ARE
ONCE AGAIN ELEVATED IN THE MOUNTAINS EAST OF PHOENIX BUT BY THEN THE
UPPER TROUGH SHOULD BE WELL ON ITS WAY INTO NEW MEXICO. LIKE
SUNDAY...ANY STORMS THAT DEVELOP WILL BE DIURNAL IN NATURE AND
SHOULD DISSIPATE SHORTLY BEFORE SUNSET.

TUESDAY WILL SEE THE TROUGH CURRENTLY NEAR THE PAC NW MOVE INLAND
AND MOVE MAINLY THROUGH UTAH. THIS CONTINUES THE NORTHWARD TREND
SEEN RECENTLY IN THE MODELS. AT THIS POINT IT APPEARS THE ONLY
IMPACTS ACROSS THIS PART OF ARIZONA AND SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA WILL BE
IN THE FORM OF INCREASING HIGH CLOUDS AND A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
MOUNTAIN SHOWERS EAST OF PHOENIX. MADE SLIGHT DOWNWARD REVISIONS TO
POPS ON TUESDAY...ALL IN ALL ITS SHAPING UP TO BE A RELATIVELY QUIET
WEEK ACROSS THE AREA. DESERT TEMPS WILL REMAIN IN THE UPPER 80S TO
LOWER 90S EACH DAY WITH SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL LOWS.

&&

.AVIATION...
SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA INCLUDING KPHX...KIWA AND KSDL...SOUTHEAST
CALIFORNIA AND SOUTHWEST ARIZONA INCLUDING KIPL AND KBLH...

SCT MID AND HIGH CLOUDS WILL GRADUALLY CLEAR OUT OVERNIGHT. WINDS AT
ALL TAF SITES WILL REMAIN MAINLY LIGHT AND VARIABLE THROUGH SUNDAY
MORNING.

AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDED TAFS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...
A PAIR OF LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS PASSING THROUGH THE AREA WILL BRING A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS TO THE HIGHER TERRAIN
AREAS EAST OF PHOENIX...WITH THE BEST CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION ON
MONDAY AND TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. A GRADUAL DRYING TREND IS
EXPECTED THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD...WITH MINIMUM HUMIDITIES IN
THE LOWER DESERTS RANGING FROM AROUND 20 PERCENT ON TUESDAY TO THE
LOW TO MID TEENS ON SATURDAY. WINDS WILL BE GENERALLY LIGHT AND
FOLLOW TYPICAL DIURNAL PATTERNS EACH DAY.

&&

.PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

AZ...NONE.

CA...NONE.

&&

$$

VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/PHOENIX

DISCUSSION...HIRSCH
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...LEINS
AVIATION...MCLANE
FIRE WEATHER...MCLANE/CB






000
FXUS65 KPSR 190416
AFDPSR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PHOENIX AZ
915 PM MST SAT OCT 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A SERIES OF WEATHER DISTURBANCES MOVE INTO THE REGION THROUGH EARLY
NEXT WEEK...HOWEVER A RELATIVELY DRY AIRMASS WILL LIMIT ANY
PRECIPITATION CHANCES TO THE MOUNTAINS OF CENTRAL AND EASTERN
ARIZONA. OTHERWISE VARIABLE CLOUDINESS CAN BE EXPECTED...WITH
SLIGHTLY WARMER THAN NORMAL AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES. A STRONG HIGH
PRESSURE SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO REBUILD OVER THE REGION BY THE END OF
NEXT WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
LATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS BURGEONING MID CLOUDS ACROSS CENTRAL
AND EASTERN AZ ASSOCIATED WITH STRONG QG-FORCED ASCENT AHEAD OF A
SHORT-WAVE TROUGH MOVING EASTWARD THROUGH SOUTHERN CA. ISOLATED
CONVECTION DEVELOPED EARLIER ACROSS EASTERN AND NORTHWESTERN
AZ...THOUGH CAMS CONTINUE TO SUGGEST THAT THE OVERNIGHT WILL REMAIN
DRY ACROSS THE LOWER DESERTS. THIS SEEMS REASONABLE GIVEN THE LACK
OF DEEPER MOISTURE...WHICH IS EVIDENT ON THE LATEST FGZ/TWC
SOUNDINGS. FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK AND NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES WERE
MADE THIS EVENING.

&&

.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
THE FORECAST REMAINS LARGELY ON TRACK AS THE TROUGH OFF THE
CALIFORNIA COAST WILL DRIFT INLAND TONIGHT AND MOVE THROUGH ARIZONA
ON SUNDAY. THERE ARE A NUMBER OF FACTORS WORKING AGAINST WIDESPREAD
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS WITH THIS SYSTEM...PROBABLY THE BIGGEST OF
WHICH IS THE SHEARED NATURE OF THE SYSTEM AND THE RELATIVELY MEAGER
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES AHEAD OF THE TROUGH. MOST OF THE SHOWERS
AND/OR STORMS THAT DEVELOP WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL BE DIURNALLY DRIVEN
AND MAINLY LOCATED IN THE MOUNTAINS NORTH/EAST OF PHOENIX. ENSEMBLE
PROBABILITIES INDICATE THE LOWER DESERTS WILL REMAIN ENTIRELY DRY
WHILE LOCATIONS EAST OF PHOENIX FROM GLOBE TO HILLTOP STAND A BETTER
SHOT AT SEEING RAINFALL. LOCAL WRF ENSEMBLE AND SSEO ALSO INDICATES
BEST CHANCES IN SOUTHERN GILA COUNTY AND I WILL RETAIN 30 POPS IN
THOSE AREAS. SOME OF THE 12Z GUIDANCE IS INDICATING LOWER VALUES
/LIKELY DUE TO A SUBTLE DOWNWARD TREND IN PWATS AND SLIGHT SOUTHERN
SHIFT IN THE TRACK OF THE UPPER LOW/ BUT NONETHELESS THERE`S AT
LEAST A CHANCE OF RAINFALL IN THESE AREAS.

THE FLOW BEHIND THIS TROUGH WILL TEMPORARILY TURN OUT OF THE EAST ON
MONDAY AND IF ANY STORMS TRY AND DEVELOP IN THE MOUNTAINS MONDAY
AFTERNOON...THEY WILL RAPIDLY DISSIPATE AS THEY MOVE INTO A MUCH
MORE STABLE AIRMASS ACROSS THE LOWER DESERTS. ENSEMBLE PROBS ARE
ONCE AGAIN ELEVATED IN THE MOUNTAINS EAST OF PHOENIX BUT BY THEN THE
UPPER TROUGH SHOULD BE WELL ON ITS WAY INTO NEW MEXICO. LIKE
SUNDAY...ANY STORMS THAT DEVELOP WILL BE DIURNAL IN NATURE AND
SHOULD DISSIPATE SHORTLY BEFORE SUNSET.

TUESDAY WILL SEE THE TROUGH CURRENTLY NEAR THE PAC NW MOVE INLAND
AND MOVE MAINLY THROUGH UTAH. THIS CONTINUES THE NORTHWARD TREND
SEEN RECENTLY IN THE MODELS. AT THIS POINT IT APPEARS THE ONLY
IMPACTS ACROSS THIS PART OF ARIZONA AND SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA WILL BE
IN THE FORM OF INCREASING HIGH CLOUDS AND A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
MOUNTAIN SHOWERS EAST OF PHOENIX. MADE SLIGHT DOWNWARD REVISIONS TO
POPS ON TUESDAY...ALL IN ALL ITS SHAPING UP TO BE A RELATIVELY QUIET
WEEK ACROSS THE AREA. DESERT TEMPS WILL REMAIN IN THE UPPER 80S TO
LOWER 90S EACH DAY WITH SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL LOWS.

&&

.AVIATION...
SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA INCLUDING KPHX...KIWA AND KSDL...SOUTHEAST
CALIFORNIA AND SOUTHWEST ARIZONA INCLUDING KIPL AND KBLH...

SCT MID AND HIGH CLOUDS WILL GRADUALLY CLEAR OUT OVERNIGHT. WINDS AT
ALL TAF SITES WILL REMAIN MAINLY LIGHT AND VARIABLE THROUGH SUNDAY
MORNING.

AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDED TAFS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...
A PAIR OF LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS PASSING THROUGH THE AREA WILL BRING A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS TO THE HIGHER TERRAIN
AREAS EAST OF PHOENIX...WITH THE BEST CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION ON
MONDAY AND TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. A GRADUAL DRYING TREND IS
EXPECTED THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD...WITH MINIMUM HUMIDITIES IN
THE LOWER DESERTS RANGING FROM AROUND 20 PERCENT ON TUESDAY TO THE
LOW TO MID TEENS ON SATURDAY. WINDS WILL BE GENERALLY LIGHT AND
FOLLOW TYPICAL DIURNAL PATTERNS EACH DAY.

&&

.PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

AZ...NONE.

CA...NONE.

&&

$$

VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/PHOENIX

DISCUSSION...HIRSCH
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...LEINS
AVIATION...MCLANE
FIRE WEATHER...MCLANE/CB






000
FXUS65 KPSR 190416
AFDPSR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PHOENIX AZ
915 PM MST SAT OCT 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A SERIES OF WEATHER DISTURBANCES MOVE INTO THE REGION THROUGH EARLY
NEXT WEEK...HOWEVER A RELATIVELY DRY AIRMASS WILL LIMIT ANY
PRECIPITATION CHANCES TO THE MOUNTAINS OF CENTRAL AND EASTERN
ARIZONA. OTHERWISE VARIABLE CLOUDINESS CAN BE EXPECTED...WITH
SLIGHTLY WARMER THAN NORMAL AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES. A STRONG HIGH
PRESSURE SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO REBUILD OVER THE REGION BY THE END OF
NEXT WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
LATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS BURGEONING MID CLOUDS ACROSS CENTRAL
AND EASTERN AZ ASSOCIATED WITH STRONG QG-FORCED ASCENT AHEAD OF A
SHORT-WAVE TROUGH MOVING EASTWARD THROUGH SOUTHERN CA. ISOLATED
CONVECTION DEVELOPED EARLIER ACROSS EASTERN AND NORTHWESTERN
AZ...THOUGH CAMS CONTINUE TO SUGGEST THAT THE OVERNIGHT WILL REMAIN
DRY ACROSS THE LOWER DESERTS. THIS SEEMS REASONABLE GIVEN THE LACK
OF DEEPER MOISTURE...WHICH IS EVIDENT ON THE LATEST FGZ/TWC
SOUNDINGS. FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK AND NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES WERE
MADE THIS EVENING.

&&

.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
THE FORECAST REMAINS LARGELY ON TRACK AS THE TROUGH OFF THE
CALIFORNIA COAST WILL DRIFT INLAND TONIGHT AND MOVE THROUGH ARIZONA
ON SUNDAY. THERE ARE A NUMBER OF FACTORS WORKING AGAINST WIDESPREAD
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS WITH THIS SYSTEM...PROBABLY THE BIGGEST OF
WHICH IS THE SHEARED NATURE OF THE SYSTEM AND THE RELATIVELY MEAGER
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES AHEAD OF THE TROUGH. MOST OF THE SHOWERS
AND/OR STORMS THAT DEVELOP WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL BE DIURNALLY DRIVEN
AND MAINLY LOCATED IN THE MOUNTAINS NORTH/EAST OF PHOENIX. ENSEMBLE
PROBABILITIES INDICATE THE LOWER DESERTS WILL REMAIN ENTIRELY DRY
WHILE LOCATIONS EAST OF PHOENIX FROM GLOBE TO HILLTOP STAND A BETTER
SHOT AT SEEING RAINFALL. LOCAL WRF ENSEMBLE AND SSEO ALSO INDICATES
BEST CHANCES IN SOUTHERN GILA COUNTY AND I WILL RETAIN 30 POPS IN
THOSE AREAS. SOME OF THE 12Z GUIDANCE IS INDICATING LOWER VALUES
/LIKELY DUE TO A SUBTLE DOWNWARD TREND IN PWATS AND SLIGHT SOUTHERN
SHIFT IN THE TRACK OF THE UPPER LOW/ BUT NONETHELESS THERE`S AT
LEAST A CHANCE OF RAINFALL IN THESE AREAS.

THE FLOW BEHIND THIS TROUGH WILL TEMPORARILY TURN OUT OF THE EAST ON
MONDAY AND IF ANY STORMS TRY AND DEVELOP IN THE MOUNTAINS MONDAY
AFTERNOON...THEY WILL RAPIDLY DISSIPATE AS THEY MOVE INTO A MUCH
MORE STABLE AIRMASS ACROSS THE LOWER DESERTS. ENSEMBLE PROBS ARE
ONCE AGAIN ELEVATED IN THE MOUNTAINS EAST OF PHOENIX BUT BY THEN THE
UPPER TROUGH SHOULD BE WELL ON ITS WAY INTO NEW MEXICO. LIKE
SUNDAY...ANY STORMS THAT DEVELOP WILL BE DIURNAL IN NATURE AND
SHOULD DISSIPATE SHORTLY BEFORE SUNSET.

TUESDAY WILL SEE THE TROUGH CURRENTLY NEAR THE PAC NW MOVE INLAND
AND MOVE MAINLY THROUGH UTAH. THIS CONTINUES THE NORTHWARD TREND
SEEN RECENTLY IN THE MODELS. AT THIS POINT IT APPEARS THE ONLY
IMPACTS ACROSS THIS PART OF ARIZONA AND SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA WILL BE
IN THE FORM OF INCREASING HIGH CLOUDS AND A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
MOUNTAIN SHOWERS EAST OF PHOENIX. MADE SLIGHT DOWNWARD REVISIONS TO
POPS ON TUESDAY...ALL IN ALL ITS SHAPING UP TO BE A RELATIVELY QUIET
WEEK ACROSS THE AREA. DESERT TEMPS WILL REMAIN IN THE UPPER 80S TO
LOWER 90S EACH DAY WITH SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL LOWS.

&&

.AVIATION...
SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA INCLUDING KPHX...KIWA AND KSDL...SOUTHEAST
CALIFORNIA AND SOUTHWEST ARIZONA INCLUDING KIPL AND KBLH...

SCT MID AND HIGH CLOUDS WILL GRADUALLY CLEAR OUT OVERNIGHT. WINDS AT
ALL TAF SITES WILL REMAIN MAINLY LIGHT AND VARIABLE THROUGH SUNDAY
MORNING.

AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDED TAFS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...
A PAIR OF LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS PASSING THROUGH THE AREA WILL BRING A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS TO THE HIGHER TERRAIN
AREAS EAST OF PHOENIX...WITH THE BEST CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION ON
MONDAY AND TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. A GRADUAL DRYING TREND IS
EXPECTED THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD...WITH MINIMUM HUMIDITIES IN
THE LOWER DESERTS RANGING FROM AROUND 20 PERCENT ON TUESDAY TO THE
LOW TO MID TEENS ON SATURDAY. WINDS WILL BE GENERALLY LIGHT AND
FOLLOW TYPICAL DIURNAL PATTERNS EACH DAY.

&&

.PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

AZ...NONE.

CA...NONE.

&&

$$

VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/PHOENIX

DISCUSSION...HIRSCH
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...LEINS
AVIATION...MCLANE
FIRE WEATHER...MCLANE/CB






000
FXUS65 KPSR 190416
AFDPSR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PHOENIX AZ
915 PM MST SAT OCT 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A SERIES OF WEATHER DISTURBANCES MOVE INTO THE REGION THROUGH EARLY
NEXT WEEK...HOWEVER A RELATIVELY DRY AIRMASS WILL LIMIT ANY
PRECIPITATION CHANCES TO THE MOUNTAINS OF CENTRAL AND EASTERN
ARIZONA. OTHERWISE VARIABLE CLOUDINESS CAN BE EXPECTED...WITH
SLIGHTLY WARMER THAN NORMAL AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES. A STRONG HIGH
PRESSURE SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO REBUILD OVER THE REGION BY THE END OF
NEXT WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
LATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS BURGEONING MID CLOUDS ACROSS CENTRAL
AND EASTERN AZ ASSOCIATED WITH STRONG QG-FORCED ASCENT AHEAD OF A
SHORT-WAVE TROUGH MOVING EASTWARD THROUGH SOUTHERN CA. ISOLATED
CONVECTION DEVELOPED EARLIER ACROSS EASTERN AND NORTHWESTERN
AZ...THOUGH CAMS CONTINUE TO SUGGEST THAT THE OVERNIGHT WILL REMAIN
DRY ACROSS THE LOWER DESERTS. THIS SEEMS REASONABLE GIVEN THE LACK
OF DEEPER MOISTURE...WHICH IS EVIDENT ON THE LATEST FGZ/TWC
SOUNDINGS. FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK AND NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES WERE
MADE THIS EVENING.

&&

.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
THE FORECAST REMAINS LARGELY ON TRACK AS THE TROUGH OFF THE
CALIFORNIA COAST WILL DRIFT INLAND TONIGHT AND MOVE THROUGH ARIZONA
ON SUNDAY. THERE ARE A NUMBER OF FACTORS WORKING AGAINST WIDESPREAD
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS WITH THIS SYSTEM...PROBABLY THE BIGGEST OF
WHICH IS THE SHEARED NATURE OF THE SYSTEM AND THE RELATIVELY MEAGER
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES AHEAD OF THE TROUGH. MOST OF THE SHOWERS
AND/OR STORMS THAT DEVELOP WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL BE DIURNALLY DRIVEN
AND MAINLY LOCATED IN THE MOUNTAINS NORTH/EAST OF PHOENIX. ENSEMBLE
PROBABILITIES INDICATE THE LOWER DESERTS WILL REMAIN ENTIRELY DRY
WHILE LOCATIONS EAST OF PHOENIX FROM GLOBE TO HILLTOP STAND A BETTER
SHOT AT SEEING RAINFALL. LOCAL WRF ENSEMBLE AND SSEO ALSO INDICATES
BEST CHANCES IN SOUTHERN GILA COUNTY AND I WILL RETAIN 30 POPS IN
THOSE AREAS. SOME OF THE 12Z GUIDANCE IS INDICATING LOWER VALUES
/LIKELY DUE TO A SUBTLE DOWNWARD TREND IN PWATS AND SLIGHT SOUTHERN
SHIFT IN THE TRACK OF THE UPPER LOW/ BUT NONETHELESS THERE`S AT
LEAST A CHANCE OF RAINFALL IN THESE AREAS.

THE FLOW BEHIND THIS TROUGH WILL TEMPORARILY TURN OUT OF THE EAST ON
MONDAY AND IF ANY STORMS TRY AND DEVELOP IN THE MOUNTAINS MONDAY
AFTERNOON...THEY WILL RAPIDLY DISSIPATE AS THEY MOVE INTO A MUCH
MORE STABLE AIRMASS ACROSS THE LOWER DESERTS. ENSEMBLE PROBS ARE
ONCE AGAIN ELEVATED IN THE MOUNTAINS EAST OF PHOENIX BUT BY THEN THE
UPPER TROUGH SHOULD BE WELL ON ITS WAY INTO NEW MEXICO. LIKE
SUNDAY...ANY STORMS THAT DEVELOP WILL BE DIURNAL IN NATURE AND
SHOULD DISSIPATE SHORTLY BEFORE SUNSET.

TUESDAY WILL SEE THE TROUGH CURRENTLY NEAR THE PAC NW MOVE INLAND
AND MOVE MAINLY THROUGH UTAH. THIS CONTINUES THE NORTHWARD TREND
SEEN RECENTLY IN THE MODELS. AT THIS POINT IT APPEARS THE ONLY
IMPACTS ACROSS THIS PART OF ARIZONA AND SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA WILL BE
IN THE FORM OF INCREASING HIGH CLOUDS AND A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
MOUNTAIN SHOWERS EAST OF PHOENIX. MADE SLIGHT DOWNWARD REVISIONS TO
POPS ON TUESDAY...ALL IN ALL ITS SHAPING UP TO BE A RELATIVELY QUIET
WEEK ACROSS THE AREA. DESERT TEMPS WILL REMAIN IN THE UPPER 80S TO
LOWER 90S EACH DAY WITH SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL LOWS.

&&

.AVIATION...
SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA INCLUDING KPHX...KIWA AND KSDL...SOUTHEAST
CALIFORNIA AND SOUTHWEST ARIZONA INCLUDING KIPL AND KBLH...

SCT MID AND HIGH CLOUDS WILL GRADUALLY CLEAR OUT OVERNIGHT. WINDS AT
ALL TAF SITES WILL REMAIN MAINLY LIGHT AND VARIABLE THROUGH SUNDAY
MORNING.

AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDED TAFS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...
A PAIR OF LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS PASSING THROUGH THE AREA WILL BRING A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS TO THE HIGHER TERRAIN
AREAS EAST OF PHOENIX...WITH THE BEST CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION ON
MONDAY AND TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. A GRADUAL DRYING TREND IS
EXPECTED THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD...WITH MINIMUM HUMIDITIES IN
THE LOWER DESERTS RANGING FROM AROUND 20 PERCENT ON TUESDAY TO THE
LOW TO MID TEENS ON SATURDAY. WINDS WILL BE GENERALLY LIGHT AND
FOLLOW TYPICAL DIURNAL PATTERNS EACH DAY.

&&

.PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

AZ...NONE.

CA...NONE.

&&

$$

VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/PHOENIX

DISCUSSION...HIRSCH
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...LEINS
AVIATION...MCLANE
FIRE WEATHER...MCLANE/CB





000
FXUS65 KPSR 190416
AFDPSR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PHOENIX AZ
915 PM MST SAT OCT 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A SERIES OF WEATHER DISTURBANCES MOVE INTO THE REGION THROUGH EARLY
NEXT WEEK...HOWEVER A RELATIVELY DRY AIRMASS WILL LIMIT ANY
PRECIPITATION CHANCES TO THE MOUNTAINS OF CENTRAL AND EASTERN
ARIZONA. OTHERWISE VARIABLE CLOUDINESS CAN BE EXPECTED...WITH
SLIGHTLY WARMER THAN NORMAL AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES. A STRONG HIGH
PRESSURE SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO REBUILD OVER THE REGION BY THE END OF
NEXT WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
LATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS BURGEONING MID CLOUDS ACROSS CENTRAL
AND EASTERN AZ ASSOCIATED WITH STRONG QG-FORCED ASCENT AHEAD OF A
SHORT-WAVE TROUGH MOVING EASTWARD THROUGH SOUTHERN CA. ISOLATED
CONVECTION DEVELOPED EARLIER ACROSS EASTERN AND NORTHWESTERN
AZ...THOUGH CAMS CONTINUE TO SUGGEST THAT THE OVERNIGHT WILL REMAIN
DRY ACROSS THE LOWER DESERTS. THIS SEEMS REASONABLE GIVEN THE LACK
OF DEEPER MOISTURE...WHICH IS EVIDENT ON THE LATEST FGZ/TWC
SOUNDINGS. FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK AND NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES WERE
MADE THIS EVENING.

&&

.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
THE FORECAST REMAINS LARGELY ON TRACK AS THE TROUGH OFF THE
CALIFORNIA COAST WILL DRIFT INLAND TONIGHT AND MOVE THROUGH ARIZONA
ON SUNDAY. THERE ARE A NUMBER OF FACTORS WORKING AGAINST WIDESPREAD
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS WITH THIS SYSTEM...PROBABLY THE BIGGEST OF
WHICH IS THE SHEARED NATURE OF THE SYSTEM AND THE RELATIVELY MEAGER
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES AHEAD OF THE TROUGH. MOST OF THE SHOWERS
AND/OR STORMS THAT DEVELOP WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL BE DIURNALLY DRIVEN
AND MAINLY LOCATED IN THE MOUNTAINS NORTH/EAST OF PHOENIX. ENSEMBLE
PROBABILITIES INDICATE THE LOWER DESERTS WILL REMAIN ENTIRELY DRY
WHILE LOCATIONS EAST OF PHOENIX FROM GLOBE TO HILLTOP STAND A BETTER
SHOT AT SEEING RAINFALL. LOCAL WRF ENSEMBLE AND SSEO ALSO INDICATES
BEST CHANCES IN SOUTHERN GILA COUNTY AND I WILL RETAIN 30 POPS IN
THOSE AREAS. SOME OF THE 12Z GUIDANCE IS INDICATING LOWER VALUES
/LIKELY DUE TO A SUBTLE DOWNWARD TREND IN PWATS AND SLIGHT SOUTHERN
SHIFT IN THE TRACK OF THE UPPER LOW/ BUT NONETHELESS THERE`S AT
LEAST A CHANCE OF RAINFALL IN THESE AREAS.

THE FLOW BEHIND THIS TROUGH WILL TEMPORARILY TURN OUT OF THE EAST ON
MONDAY AND IF ANY STORMS TRY AND DEVELOP IN THE MOUNTAINS MONDAY
AFTERNOON...THEY WILL RAPIDLY DISSIPATE AS THEY MOVE INTO A MUCH
MORE STABLE AIRMASS ACROSS THE LOWER DESERTS. ENSEMBLE PROBS ARE
ONCE AGAIN ELEVATED IN THE MOUNTAINS EAST OF PHOENIX BUT BY THEN THE
UPPER TROUGH SHOULD BE WELL ON ITS WAY INTO NEW MEXICO. LIKE
SUNDAY...ANY STORMS THAT DEVELOP WILL BE DIURNAL IN NATURE AND
SHOULD DISSIPATE SHORTLY BEFORE SUNSET.

TUESDAY WILL SEE THE TROUGH CURRENTLY NEAR THE PAC NW MOVE INLAND
AND MOVE MAINLY THROUGH UTAH. THIS CONTINUES THE NORTHWARD TREND
SEEN RECENTLY IN THE MODELS. AT THIS POINT IT APPEARS THE ONLY
IMPACTS ACROSS THIS PART OF ARIZONA AND SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA WILL BE
IN THE FORM OF INCREASING HIGH CLOUDS AND A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
MOUNTAIN SHOWERS EAST OF PHOENIX. MADE SLIGHT DOWNWARD REVISIONS TO
POPS ON TUESDAY...ALL IN ALL ITS SHAPING UP TO BE A RELATIVELY QUIET
WEEK ACROSS THE AREA. DESERT TEMPS WILL REMAIN IN THE UPPER 80S TO
LOWER 90S EACH DAY WITH SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL LOWS.

&&

.AVIATION...
SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA INCLUDING KPHX...KIWA AND KSDL...SOUTHEAST
CALIFORNIA AND SOUTHWEST ARIZONA INCLUDING KIPL AND KBLH...

SCT MID AND HIGH CLOUDS WILL GRADUALLY CLEAR OUT OVERNIGHT. WINDS AT
ALL TAF SITES WILL REMAIN MAINLY LIGHT AND VARIABLE THROUGH SUNDAY
MORNING.

AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDED TAFS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...
A PAIR OF LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS PASSING THROUGH THE AREA WILL BRING A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS TO THE HIGHER TERRAIN
AREAS EAST OF PHOENIX...WITH THE BEST CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION ON
MONDAY AND TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. A GRADUAL DRYING TREND IS
EXPECTED THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD...WITH MINIMUM HUMIDITIES IN
THE LOWER DESERTS RANGING FROM AROUND 20 PERCENT ON TUESDAY TO THE
LOW TO MID TEENS ON SATURDAY. WINDS WILL BE GENERALLY LIGHT AND
FOLLOW TYPICAL DIURNAL PATTERNS EACH DAY.

&&

.PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

AZ...NONE.

CA...NONE.

&&

$$

VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/PHOENIX

DISCUSSION...HIRSCH
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...LEINS
AVIATION...MCLANE
FIRE WEATHER...MCLANE/CB






000
FXUS65 KTWC 190338
AFDTWC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ
830 PM MST SAT OCT 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...A WEAK SYSTEM WILL THEN BRING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND A
FEW THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY EAST OF TUCSON THROUGH THE EARLY PART OF
THE COMING WEEK.  HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING DRIER CONDITIONS LATE IN
THE WEEK ALONG WITH SEVERAL DEGREES OF WARMING.

&&

.DISCUSSION...CLOUDS FORMING OVER SOUTHERN AZ UNDER AN AREA OF UPPER
LEVEL DIFFLUENCE WITH A FEW SHOWERS AND EVEN LIGHTNING STRIKES
INDICATED ACROSS GREENLEE AND EASTERN GRAHAM COUNTIES.  THESE
SHOWERS ARE VERY LIGHT AND ARE HEADED NORTH.  THE COMBINATION OF
WEAK LIFT AND SOME MID LEVEL MOISTURE WILL MAINTAIN THE SMALL THREAT
OF LIGHT SHOWERS AND ISOLATED T-STORMS NEAR THE NEW MEXICO BORDER
THROUGH THE NIGHT.

THIS DIFFLUENCE IS ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER LOW JUST OFF THE COAST
OF BAJA RIGHT AT 30N LAT THIS HOUR.  THIS FEATURE WILL CONTINUE TO
SLOWLY CLOSE OFF AND GRADUALLY WORK ITS WAY EAST ACROSS NORTHERN
MEXICO TO THE VICINITY OF THE AZ/NM BORDER BY MONDAY EVENING.  AS IT
DOES SO WE ARE IN THE PRIME LOCATION IN RELATION TO THE LOW FOR
PRECIPITATION IF IT WERE NOT SO MOISTURE STARVED WHICH WILL LIMIT
THE ABUNDANCE OF PRECIPITATION.  HOWEVER THAT SAID...THE TREND OF
THE MODELS IS A BIT WETTER WITH EACH RUN AND FROM A LOOK AT CURRENT
CONDITIONS I AGREE WITH THAT ASSESSMENT.  NAM INITIALIZED WELL AT
18Z AND AGAIN AT 00Z WITH COVERAGE OF THE FEW AREAS OF CONVECTION
THAT HAVE DEVELOPED THIS EVENING LENDING SOME CONFIDENCE TO RAISING
THE CHANCE OF PRECIP FOR SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING WHICH I DID.
THE RESULT WAS SOMEWHAT INCREASED COVERAGE OF THE SLIGHT CHANCE AND
CHANCE CATEGORIES.  WE ALSO MATCH UP A BIT BETTER WITH OUR
SURROUNDING OFFICES.  I ALSO GAVE AN UPWARD TWEAK TO THE POPS MONDAY
AFTERNOON EASTERN MOST ZONES BASED ON THE ABOVE MODEL REASONING AND
BETTER CONSISTENCY.

ON TUESDAY THE UPPER LOW OPENS UP AND IS ABSORBED IN A LONGER WAVE
TROUGH MOVING ACROSS THE WEST.  HOWEVER AT THAT TIME THERE REMAINS
ENOUGH MOISTURE ACROSS THE EASTERN MOST ZONES TO MAINTAIN A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND T-STORMS IN THE FORECAST.

BEYOND THAT AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO BUILD ACROSS THE
REGION WED INTO AT LEAST THE EARLY PART OF NEXT WEEKEND RESULTING IN
MOSTLY CLEAR AND DRY CONDITIONS WITH SIGNIFICANTLY WARMER THAN
NORMAL HIGH TEMPERATURES.  CERNIGLIA

&&

.AVIATION...VALID THRU 20/06Z.
SKC-SCT CLOUDS MAINLY ABOVE 10K FT AGL SOUTH OF KTUS AND SCT-BKN
NORTH OF KTUS THROUGH 19/18Z AND THERE WILL BE ENOUGH MOISTURE FOR
ISOLD -SHRA/-TSRA EAST OF KTUS.  INCREASING CLOUDS AFT 19/18Z
BECOMING SCT-BKN AROUND 10K FT ALL AREAS WITH A CHANCE OF
-SHRA/-TSRA DEVELOPING FROM AROUND KTUS EASTWARD.  SFC WINDS
GENERALLY LESS THAN 10 KTS THROUGH SUNDAY EXCEPT SOUTHEAST WIND TO
15 KT EASTERN AREAS SUNDAY AFTERNOON.  GUSTY WINDS ARE POSSIBLE
IN/NEAR -TSRA ON SUNDAY. AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR TAF
AMENDMENTS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE MOVING INTO THE AREA IN
COMBINATION WITH ADEQUATE MOISTURE WILL RESULT IN A CHANCE OF
SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH TUESDAY OR
WEDNESDAY...MAINLY TUCSON EASTWARD.  DRY CONDITIONS WILL THEN OCCUR
AREA WIDE THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK WITH SIGNIFICANTLY ABOVE
NORMAL HIGH TEMPERATURES.  20-FOOT WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE DIURNAL
AND LESS THAN 15 MPH THIS WEEKEND AND INTO NEXT WEEK.  SOME GUSTY
WINDS ARE POSSIBLE NEAR ANY THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

$$

VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...YOUTUBE...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/TUCSON









000
FXUS65 KTWC 190338
AFDTWC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ
830 PM MST SAT OCT 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...A WEAK SYSTEM WILL THEN BRING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND A
FEW THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY EAST OF TUCSON THROUGH THE EARLY PART OF
THE COMING WEEK.  HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING DRIER CONDITIONS LATE IN
THE WEEK ALONG WITH SEVERAL DEGREES OF WARMING.

&&

.DISCUSSION...CLOUDS FORMING OVER SOUTHERN AZ UNDER AN AREA OF UPPER
LEVEL DIFFLUENCE WITH A FEW SHOWERS AND EVEN LIGHTNING STRIKES
INDICATED ACROSS GREENLEE AND EASTERN GRAHAM COUNTIES.  THESE
SHOWERS ARE VERY LIGHT AND ARE HEADED NORTH.  THE COMBINATION OF
WEAK LIFT AND SOME MID LEVEL MOISTURE WILL MAINTAIN THE SMALL THREAT
OF LIGHT SHOWERS AND ISOLATED T-STORMS NEAR THE NEW MEXICO BORDER
THROUGH THE NIGHT.

THIS DIFFLUENCE IS ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER LOW JUST OFF THE COAST
OF BAJA RIGHT AT 30N LAT THIS HOUR.  THIS FEATURE WILL CONTINUE TO
SLOWLY CLOSE OFF AND GRADUALLY WORK ITS WAY EAST ACROSS NORTHERN
MEXICO TO THE VICINITY OF THE AZ/NM BORDER BY MONDAY EVENING.  AS IT
DOES SO WE ARE IN THE PRIME LOCATION IN RELATION TO THE LOW FOR
PRECIPITATION IF IT WERE NOT SO MOISTURE STARVED WHICH WILL LIMIT
THE ABUNDANCE OF PRECIPITATION.  HOWEVER THAT SAID...THE TREND OF
THE MODELS IS A BIT WETTER WITH EACH RUN AND FROM A LOOK AT CURRENT
CONDITIONS I AGREE WITH THAT ASSESSMENT.  NAM INITIALIZED WELL AT
18Z AND AGAIN AT 00Z WITH COVERAGE OF THE FEW AREAS OF CONVECTION
THAT HAVE DEVELOPED THIS EVENING LENDING SOME CONFIDENCE TO RAISING
THE CHANCE OF PRECIP FOR SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING WHICH I DID.
THE RESULT WAS SOMEWHAT INCREASED COVERAGE OF THE SLIGHT CHANCE AND
CHANCE CATEGORIES.  WE ALSO MATCH UP A BIT BETTER WITH OUR
SURROUNDING OFFICES.  I ALSO GAVE AN UPWARD TWEAK TO THE POPS MONDAY
AFTERNOON EASTERN MOST ZONES BASED ON THE ABOVE MODEL REASONING AND
BETTER CONSISTENCY.

ON TUESDAY THE UPPER LOW OPENS UP AND IS ABSORBED IN A LONGER WAVE
TROUGH MOVING ACROSS THE WEST.  HOWEVER AT THAT TIME THERE REMAINS
ENOUGH MOISTURE ACROSS THE EASTERN MOST ZONES TO MAINTAIN A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND T-STORMS IN THE FORECAST.

BEYOND THAT AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO BUILD ACROSS THE
REGION WED INTO AT LEAST THE EARLY PART OF NEXT WEEKEND RESULTING IN
MOSTLY CLEAR AND DRY CONDITIONS WITH SIGNIFICANTLY WARMER THAN
NORMAL HIGH TEMPERATURES.  CERNIGLIA

&&

.AVIATION...VALID THRU 20/06Z.
SKC-SCT CLOUDS MAINLY ABOVE 10K FT AGL SOUTH OF KTUS AND SCT-BKN
NORTH OF KTUS THROUGH 19/18Z AND THERE WILL BE ENOUGH MOISTURE FOR
ISOLD -SHRA/-TSRA EAST OF KTUS.  INCREASING CLOUDS AFT 19/18Z
BECOMING SCT-BKN AROUND 10K FT ALL AREAS WITH A CHANCE OF
-SHRA/-TSRA DEVELOPING FROM AROUND KTUS EASTWARD.  SFC WINDS
GENERALLY LESS THAN 10 KTS THROUGH SUNDAY EXCEPT SOUTHEAST WIND TO
15 KT EASTERN AREAS SUNDAY AFTERNOON.  GUSTY WINDS ARE POSSIBLE
IN/NEAR -TSRA ON SUNDAY. AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR TAF
AMENDMENTS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE MOVING INTO THE AREA IN
COMBINATION WITH ADEQUATE MOISTURE WILL RESULT IN A CHANCE OF
SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH TUESDAY OR
WEDNESDAY...MAINLY TUCSON EASTWARD.  DRY CONDITIONS WILL THEN OCCUR
AREA WIDE THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK WITH SIGNIFICANTLY ABOVE
NORMAL HIGH TEMPERATURES.  20-FOOT WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE DIURNAL
AND LESS THAN 15 MPH THIS WEEKEND AND INTO NEXT WEEK.  SOME GUSTY
WINDS ARE POSSIBLE NEAR ANY THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

$$

VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...YOUTUBE...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/TUCSON










000
FXUS65 KTWC 190338
AFDTWC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ
830 PM MST SAT OCT 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...A WEAK SYSTEM WILL THEN BRING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND A
FEW THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY EAST OF TUCSON THROUGH THE EARLY PART OF
THE COMING WEEK.  HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING DRIER CONDITIONS LATE IN
THE WEEK ALONG WITH SEVERAL DEGREES OF WARMING.

&&

.DISCUSSION...CLOUDS FORMING OVER SOUTHERN AZ UNDER AN AREA OF UPPER
LEVEL DIFFLUENCE WITH A FEW SHOWERS AND EVEN LIGHTNING STRIKES
INDICATED ACROSS GREENLEE AND EASTERN GRAHAM COUNTIES.  THESE
SHOWERS ARE VERY LIGHT AND ARE HEADED NORTH.  THE COMBINATION OF
WEAK LIFT AND SOME MID LEVEL MOISTURE WILL MAINTAIN THE SMALL THREAT
OF LIGHT SHOWERS AND ISOLATED T-STORMS NEAR THE NEW MEXICO BORDER
THROUGH THE NIGHT.

THIS DIFFLUENCE IS ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER LOW JUST OFF THE COAST
OF BAJA RIGHT AT 30N LAT THIS HOUR.  THIS FEATURE WILL CONTINUE TO
SLOWLY CLOSE OFF AND GRADUALLY WORK ITS WAY EAST ACROSS NORTHERN
MEXICO TO THE VICINITY OF THE AZ/NM BORDER BY MONDAY EVENING.  AS IT
DOES SO WE ARE IN THE PRIME LOCATION IN RELATION TO THE LOW FOR
PRECIPITATION IF IT WERE NOT SO MOISTURE STARVED WHICH WILL LIMIT
THE ABUNDANCE OF PRECIPITATION.  HOWEVER THAT SAID...THE TREND OF
THE MODELS IS A BIT WETTER WITH EACH RUN AND FROM A LOOK AT CURRENT
CONDITIONS I AGREE WITH THAT ASSESSMENT.  NAM INITIALIZED WELL AT
18Z AND AGAIN AT 00Z WITH COVERAGE OF THE FEW AREAS OF CONVECTION
THAT HAVE DEVELOPED THIS EVENING LENDING SOME CONFIDENCE TO RAISING
THE CHANCE OF PRECIP FOR SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING WHICH I DID.
THE RESULT WAS SOMEWHAT INCREASED COVERAGE OF THE SLIGHT CHANCE AND
CHANCE CATEGORIES.  WE ALSO MATCH UP A BIT BETTER WITH OUR
SURROUNDING OFFICES.  I ALSO GAVE AN UPWARD TWEAK TO THE POPS MONDAY
AFTERNOON EASTERN MOST ZONES BASED ON THE ABOVE MODEL REASONING AND
BETTER CONSISTENCY.

ON TUESDAY THE UPPER LOW OPENS UP AND IS ABSORBED IN A LONGER WAVE
TROUGH MOVING ACROSS THE WEST.  HOWEVER AT THAT TIME THERE REMAINS
ENOUGH MOISTURE ACROSS THE EASTERN MOST ZONES TO MAINTAIN A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND T-STORMS IN THE FORECAST.

BEYOND THAT AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO BUILD ACROSS THE
REGION WED INTO AT LEAST THE EARLY PART OF NEXT WEEKEND RESULTING IN
MOSTLY CLEAR AND DRY CONDITIONS WITH SIGNIFICANTLY WARMER THAN
NORMAL HIGH TEMPERATURES.  CERNIGLIA

&&

.AVIATION...VALID THRU 20/06Z.
SKC-SCT CLOUDS MAINLY ABOVE 10K FT AGL SOUTH OF KTUS AND SCT-BKN
NORTH OF KTUS THROUGH 19/18Z AND THERE WILL BE ENOUGH MOISTURE FOR
ISOLD -SHRA/-TSRA EAST OF KTUS.  INCREASING CLOUDS AFT 19/18Z
BECOMING SCT-BKN AROUND 10K FT ALL AREAS WITH A CHANCE OF
-SHRA/-TSRA DEVELOPING FROM AROUND KTUS EASTWARD.  SFC WINDS
GENERALLY LESS THAN 10 KTS THROUGH SUNDAY EXCEPT SOUTHEAST WIND TO
15 KT EASTERN AREAS SUNDAY AFTERNOON.  GUSTY WINDS ARE POSSIBLE
IN/NEAR -TSRA ON SUNDAY. AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR TAF
AMENDMENTS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE MOVING INTO THE AREA IN
COMBINATION WITH ADEQUATE MOISTURE WILL RESULT IN A CHANCE OF
SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH TUESDAY OR
WEDNESDAY...MAINLY TUCSON EASTWARD.  DRY CONDITIONS WILL THEN OCCUR
AREA WIDE THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK WITH SIGNIFICANTLY ABOVE
NORMAL HIGH TEMPERATURES.  20-FOOT WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE DIURNAL
AND LESS THAN 15 MPH THIS WEEKEND AND INTO NEXT WEEK.  SOME GUSTY
WINDS ARE POSSIBLE NEAR ANY THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

$$

VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...YOUTUBE...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/TUCSON









000
FXUS65 KTWC 190338
AFDTWC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ
830 PM MST SAT OCT 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...A WEAK SYSTEM WILL THEN BRING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND A
FEW THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY EAST OF TUCSON THROUGH THE EARLY PART OF
THE COMING WEEK.  HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING DRIER CONDITIONS LATE IN
THE WEEK ALONG WITH SEVERAL DEGREES OF WARMING.

&&

.DISCUSSION...CLOUDS FORMING OVER SOUTHERN AZ UNDER AN AREA OF UPPER
LEVEL DIFFLUENCE WITH A FEW SHOWERS AND EVEN LIGHTNING STRIKES
INDICATED ACROSS GREENLEE AND EASTERN GRAHAM COUNTIES.  THESE
SHOWERS ARE VERY LIGHT AND ARE HEADED NORTH.  THE COMBINATION OF
WEAK LIFT AND SOME MID LEVEL MOISTURE WILL MAINTAIN THE SMALL THREAT
OF LIGHT SHOWERS AND ISOLATED T-STORMS NEAR THE NEW MEXICO BORDER
THROUGH THE NIGHT.

THIS DIFFLUENCE IS ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER LOW JUST OFF THE COAST
OF BAJA RIGHT AT 30N LAT THIS HOUR.  THIS FEATURE WILL CONTINUE TO
SLOWLY CLOSE OFF AND GRADUALLY WORK ITS WAY EAST ACROSS NORTHERN
MEXICO TO THE VICINITY OF THE AZ/NM BORDER BY MONDAY EVENING.  AS IT
DOES SO WE ARE IN THE PRIME LOCATION IN RELATION TO THE LOW FOR
PRECIPITATION IF IT WERE NOT SO MOISTURE STARVED WHICH WILL LIMIT
THE ABUNDANCE OF PRECIPITATION.  HOWEVER THAT SAID...THE TREND OF
THE MODELS IS A BIT WETTER WITH EACH RUN AND FROM A LOOK AT CURRENT
CONDITIONS I AGREE WITH THAT ASSESSMENT.  NAM INITIALIZED WELL AT
18Z AND AGAIN AT 00Z WITH COVERAGE OF THE FEW AREAS OF CONVECTION
THAT HAVE DEVELOPED THIS EVENING LENDING SOME CONFIDENCE TO RAISING
THE CHANCE OF PRECIP FOR SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING WHICH I DID.
THE RESULT WAS SOMEWHAT INCREASED COVERAGE OF THE SLIGHT CHANCE AND
CHANCE CATEGORIES.  WE ALSO MATCH UP A BIT BETTER WITH OUR
SURROUNDING OFFICES.  I ALSO GAVE AN UPWARD TWEAK TO THE POPS MONDAY
AFTERNOON EASTERN MOST ZONES BASED ON THE ABOVE MODEL REASONING AND
BETTER CONSISTENCY.

ON TUESDAY THE UPPER LOW OPENS UP AND IS ABSORBED IN A LONGER WAVE
TROUGH MOVING ACROSS THE WEST.  HOWEVER AT THAT TIME THERE REMAINS
ENOUGH MOISTURE ACROSS THE EASTERN MOST ZONES TO MAINTAIN A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND T-STORMS IN THE FORECAST.

BEYOND THAT AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO BUILD ACROSS THE
REGION WED INTO AT LEAST THE EARLY PART OF NEXT WEEKEND RESULTING IN
MOSTLY CLEAR AND DRY CONDITIONS WITH SIGNIFICANTLY WARMER THAN
NORMAL HIGH TEMPERATURES.  CERNIGLIA

&&

.AVIATION...VALID THRU 20/06Z.
SKC-SCT CLOUDS MAINLY ABOVE 10K FT AGL SOUTH OF KTUS AND SCT-BKN
NORTH OF KTUS THROUGH 19/18Z AND THERE WILL BE ENOUGH MOISTURE FOR
ISOLD -SHRA/-TSRA EAST OF KTUS.  INCREASING CLOUDS AFT 19/18Z
BECOMING SCT-BKN AROUND 10K FT ALL AREAS WITH A CHANCE OF
-SHRA/-TSRA DEVELOPING FROM AROUND KTUS EASTWARD.  SFC WINDS
GENERALLY LESS THAN 10 KTS THROUGH SUNDAY EXCEPT SOUTHEAST WIND TO
15 KT EASTERN AREAS SUNDAY AFTERNOON.  GUSTY WINDS ARE POSSIBLE
IN/NEAR -TSRA ON SUNDAY. AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR TAF
AMENDMENTS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE MOVING INTO THE AREA IN
COMBINATION WITH ADEQUATE MOISTURE WILL RESULT IN A CHANCE OF
SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH TUESDAY OR
WEDNESDAY...MAINLY TUCSON EASTWARD.  DRY CONDITIONS WILL THEN OCCUR
AREA WIDE THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK WITH SIGNIFICANTLY ABOVE
NORMAL HIGH TEMPERATURES.  20-FOOT WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE DIURNAL
AND LESS THAN 15 MPH THIS WEEKEND AND INTO NEXT WEEK.  SOME GUSTY
WINDS ARE POSSIBLE NEAR ANY THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

$$

VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...YOUTUBE...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/TUCSON










000
FXUS65 KFGZ 190311
AFDFGZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ
811 PM MST SAT OCT 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
PERIODS OF UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL CONTINUE ACROSS NORTHERN
ARIZONA THROUGH MONDAY AS A SERIES OF WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS
MOVE THROUGH NORTHERN ARIZONA. EXPECT MOSTLY ISOLATED SHOWER
COVERAGE WITH LIGHT RAINFALL AMOUNTS. HIGH PRESSURE IS FORECAST
TO IMPACT THE REGION FROM WEDNESDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND...LEADING
TO A PERIOD OF CLEARING SKIES AND FAIR...WARMER WEATHER.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
A CLOSED LOW CURRENTLY LOCATED OVER SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA CONTINUES
TO DRAW MID-LEVEL MOISTURE NORTHWARD INTO NORTHERN ARIZONA.
ISOLATED...LIGHT SHOWERS REMAIN ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE REGION. HI-
RES MODELS INDICATE THIS ACTIVITY MAY CONTINUE OVER HIGHER TERRAIN
OVERNIGHT. WILL KEEP AT LEAST SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ALONG THE MOGOLLON
RIM AND WHITE MOUNTAINS.

FOR TOMORROW...HAVE SLIGHTLY INCREASED THE CHANCES FOR SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS ALONG PORTIONS OF THE MOGOLLON RIM AND IN THE
BLACK MESA AREA. CHANCES HAVE NOT BEEN INCREASED MUCH...BUT HAVE
EXPANDED THE AREA OF SCATTERED COVERAGE A BIT. MID-LEVEL COOLING
WILL LEAD TO STEEPER LAPSE RATES BY TOMORROW AFTERNOON. WITH DEW
POINTS FORECAST TO RISE A FEW MORE DEGREES...WE SHOULD SEE BETTER
COVERAGE TOMORROW AS COMPARED TO TODAY.

&&

.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION /245 PM MST/...
THE SLOW MOVING AREA OF LOW PRESSURE CURRENTLY OVER SOUTHERN CALIF
WILL GRADUALLY MEANDER ALONG THE SOUTHERN BORDER OF ARIZONA OVER
THE NEXT COUPLE DAYS...BRINGING MID-LEVEL MOISTURE...CLOUDS...AND
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS INTO NORTHERN ARIZONA. RAINFALL WILL
BE MOST PREVALENT ACROSS THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF CENTRAL AND
EASTERN ARIZONA ON SUNDAY...WITH RAINFALL AMOUNTS FORECAST TO BE
LIGHT THROUGH THE PERIOD. DRIER AIR WILL BE USHERED INTO ARIZONA
BY TUESDAY AS WESTERLY FLOW IS ESTABLISHED ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST.

WEDNESDAY INTO NEXT WEEKEND...THE FORECAST MODELS...ENSEMBLE
SOLUTIONS...ARE IN AGREEMENT INDICATING A STRONG RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDING OVER THE GREAT BASIN LATE IN THE WEEK BRINGING
WARMING TEMPERATURES AND DRY CONDITIONS.

AS A REMINDER...THE FALL PRESCRIBED BURNING SEASON HAS STARTED IN
ERNEST...WITH MORE BURNS PLANNED ACROSS THE FOREST NEXT WEEK. WIND
SPEEDS WILL GENERALLY BE LIGHT...AND ALLOW SMOKE NEAR PRESCRIBED
BURNS TO FLOW INTO LOW LYING DRAINAGES...PARTICULARLY AT NIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION...
FOR THE 06Z PACKAGE...EXPECT ISOLATED -SHRA TO CONTINUE OVER
HIGHER TERRAIN OVERNIGHT. AFTER 18Z SUN...SCT -SHRA AND ISO -TSRA
WILL DEVELOP MOSTLY EAST OF A LINE FROM KPRC-KFLG-KRQE. BRIEF MVFR
CONDITIONS POSSIBLE UNDER THE STRONGEST STORMS. AVIATION
DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDMENTS.

&&

.FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC.........RR/BAK
AVIATION.......RR

FOR NORTHERN ARIZONA WEATHER INFORMATION VISIT
WEATHER.GOV/FLAGSTAFF





000
FXUS65 KFGZ 190311
AFDFGZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ
811 PM MST SAT OCT 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
PERIODS OF UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL CONTINUE ACROSS NORTHERN
ARIZONA THROUGH MONDAY AS A SERIES OF WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS
MOVE THROUGH NORTHERN ARIZONA. EXPECT MOSTLY ISOLATED SHOWER
COVERAGE WITH LIGHT RAINFALL AMOUNTS. HIGH PRESSURE IS FORECAST
TO IMPACT THE REGION FROM WEDNESDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND...LEADING
TO A PERIOD OF CLEARING SKIES AND FAIR...WARMER WEATHER.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
A CLOSED LOW CURRENTLY LOCATED OVER SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA CONTINUES
TO DRAW MID-LEVEL MOISTURE NORTHWARD INTO NORTHERN ARIZONA.
ISOLATED...LIGHT SHOWERS REMAIN ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE REGION. HI-
RES MODELS INDICATE THIS ACTIVITY MAY CONTINUE OVER HIGHER TERRAIN
OVERNIGHT. WILL KEEP AT LEAST SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ALONG THE MOGOLLON
RIM AND WHITE MOUNTAINS.

FOR TOMORROW...HAVE SLIGHTLY INCREASED THE CHANCES FOR SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS ALONG PORTIONS OF THE MOGOLLON RIM AND IN THE
BLACK MESA AREA. CHANCES HAVE NOT BEEN INCREASED MUCH...BUT HAVE
EXPANDED THE AREA OF SCATTERED COVERAGE A BIT. MID-LEVEL COOLING
WILL LEAD TO STEEPER LAPSE RATES BY TOMORROW AFTERNOON. WITH DEW
POINTS FORECAST TO RISE A FEW MORE DEGREES...WE SHOULD SEE BETTER
COVERAGE TOMORROW AS COMPARED TO TODAY.

&&

.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION /245 PM MST/...
THE SLOW MOVING AREA OF LOW PRESSURE CURRENTLY OVER SOUTHERN CALIF
WILL GRADUALLY MEANDER ALONG THE SOUTHERN BORDER OF ARIZONA OVER
THE NEXT COUPLE DAYS...BRINGING MID-LEVEL MOISTURE...CLOUDS...AND
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS INTO NORTHERN ARIZONA. RAINFALL WILL
BE MOST PREVALENT ACROSS THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF CENTRAL AND
EASTERN ARIZONA ON SUNDAY...WITH RAINFALL AMOUNTS FORECAST TO BE
LIGHT THROUGH THE PERIOD. DRIER AIR WILL BE USHERED INTO ARIZONA
BY TUESDAY AS WESTERLY FLOW IS ESTABLISHED ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST.

WEDNESDAY INTO NEXT WEEKEND...THE FORECAST MODELS...ENSEMBLE
SOLUTIONS...ARE IN AGREEMENT INDICATING A STRONG RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDING OVER THE GREAT BASIN LATE IN THE WEEK BRINGING
WARMING TEMPERATURES AND DRY CONDITIONS.

AS A REMINDER...THE FALL PRESCRIBED BURNING SEASON HAS STARTED IN
ERNEST...WITH MORE BURNS PLANNED ACROSS THE FOREST NEXT WEEK. WIND
SPEEDS WILL GENERALLY BE LIGHT...AND ALLOW SMOKE NEAR PRESCRIBED
BURNS TO FLOW INTO LOW LYING DRAINAGES...PARTICULARLY AT NIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION...
FOR THE 06Z PACKAGE...EXPECT ISOLATED -SHRA TO CONTINUE OVER
HIGHER TERRAIN OVERNIGHT. AFTER 18Z SUN...SCT -SHRA AND ISO -TSRA
WILL DEVELOP MOSTLY EAST OF A LINE FROM KPRC-KFLG-KRQE. BRIEF MVFR
CONDITIONS POSSIBLE UNDER THE STRONGEST STORMS. AVIATION
DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDMENTS.

&&

.FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC.........RR/BAK
AVIATION.......RR

FOR NORTHERN ARIZONA WEATHER INFORMATION VISIT
WEATHER.GOV/FLAGSTAFF






000
FXUS65 KFGZ 182144
AFDFGZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ
245 PM MST SAT OCT 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...PERIODS OF UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL CONTINUE ACROSS
NORTHERN ARIZONA THROUGH MONDAY AS A SERIES OF WEAK LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEMS MOVE THROUGH THE REGION. SHOWER COVERAGE WILL BE
LOW WITH LIGHT AMOUNTS OF RAINFALL EXPECTED. HIGH PRESSURE IS
FORECAST TO MOVE INTO THE REGION WEDNESDAY AND INTO NEXT WEEKEND
BRINGING A PERIOD OF CLEARING SKIES AND FAIR...WARMER WEATHER.

&&

.DISCUSSION...TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY...ONLY A FEW ISOLATED LIGHT
SHOWERS DEVELOPING ACROSS NORTHERN ARIZONA THIS AFTERNOON...MAINLY
OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN. RECENT SFC OBS INDICATE LEVEL MOISTURE
CONTINUES TO RISE A BIT WITH AREA DEW POINTS GENERALLY UP A FEW
DEGREES SINCE YESTERDAY. WINDS HAVE GENERALLY BEEN LIGHT.

THE SLOW MOVING AREA OF LOW PRESSURE CURRENTLY OVER SOUTHERN CALIF
WILL GRADUALLY MEANDER ALONG THE SOUTHERN BORDER OF ARIZONA OVER
THE NEXT COUPLE DAYS...BRINGING MID-LEVEL MOISTURE...CLOUDS...AND
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS INTO NORTHERN ARIZONA. RAINFALL WILL
BE MOST PREVALENT ACROSS THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF CENTRAL AND
EASTERN ARIZONA ON SUNDAY...WITH RAINFALL AMOUNTS FORECAST TO BE
LIGHT THROUGH THE PERIOD. DRIER AIR WILL BE USHERED INTO ARIZONA
BY TUESDAY AS WESTERLY FLOW IS ESTABLISHED ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST.

WEDNESDAY INTO NEXT WEEKEND...THE FORECAST MODELS...ENSEMBLE
SOLUTIONS...ARE IN AGREEMENT INDICATING A STRONG RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDING OVER THE GREAT BASIN LATE IN THE WEEK BRINGING
WARMING TEMPERATURES AND DRY CONDITIONS.

AS A REMINDER...THE FALL PRESCRIBED BURNING SEASON HAS STARTED IN
ERNEST...WITH MORE BURNS PLANNED ACROSS THE FOREST NEXT WEEK. WIND
SPEEDS WILL GENERALLY BE LIGHT...AND ALLOW SMOKE NEAR PRESCRIBED
BURNS TO FLOW INTO LOW LYING DRAINAGES...PARTICULARLY AT NIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 00Z PACKAGE...EXPECT GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS
THROUGH THE EVENING...WITH ISOLD-SCT -SHRA OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN
THROUGH 03Z. SCT -SHRA WILL DEVELOP AFTER 08Z AND CONTINUE THROUGH
SUNDAY...MAINLY OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN SOUTH AND EAST OF A LINE
FROM KPRC...KFLG...KRQE. AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR
AMENDMENTS.

&&

.FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&

$$

PUBLIC.........BAK/BOHLIN
AVIATION.......BAK

FOR NORTHERN ARIZONA WEATHER INFORMATION VISIT
WEATHER.GOV/FLAGSTAFF



000
FXUS65 KFGZ 182144
AFDFGZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ
245 PM MST SAT OCT 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...PERIODS OF UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL CONTINUE ACROSS
NORTHERN ARIZONA THROUGH MONDAY AS A SERIES OF WEAK LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEMS MOVE THROUGH THE REGION. SHOWER COVERAGE WILL BE
LOW WITH LIGHT AMOUNTS OF RAINFALL EXPECTED. HIGH PRESSURE IS
FORECAST TO MOVE INTO THE REGION WEDNESDAY AND INTO NEXT WEEKEND
BRINGING A PERIOD OF CLEARING SKIES AND FAIR...WARMER WEATHER.

&&

.DISCUSSION...TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY...ONLY A FEW ISOLATED LIGHT
SHOWERS DEVELOPING ACROSS NORTHERN ARIZONA THIS AFTERNOON...MAINLY
OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN. RECENT SFC OBS INDICATE LEVEL MOISTURE
CONTINUES TO RISE A BIT WITH AREA DEW POINTS GENERALLY UP A FEW
DEGREES SINCE YESTERDAY. WINDS HAVE GENERALLY BEEN LIGHT.

THE SLOW MOVING AREA OF LOW PRESSURE CURRENTLY OVER SOUTHERN CALIF
WILL GRADUALLY MEANDER ALONG THE SOUTHERN BORDER OF ARIZONA OVER
THE NEXT COUPLE DAYS...BRINGING MID-LEVEL MOISTURE...CLOUDS...AND
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS INTO NORTHERN ARIZONA. RAINFALL WILL
BE MOST PREVALENT ACROSS THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF CENTRAL AND
EASTERN ARIZONA ON SUNDAY...WITH RAINFALL AMOUNTS FORECAST TO BE
LIGHT THROUGH THE PERIOD. DRIER AIR WILL BE USHERED INTO ARIZONA
BY TUESDAY AS WESTERLY FLOW IS ESTABLISHED ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST.

WEDNESDAY INTO NEXT WEEKEND...THE FORECAST MODELS...ENSEMBLE
SOLUTIONS...ARE IN AGREEMENT INDICATING A STRONG RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDING OVER THE GREAT BASIN LATE IN THE WEEK BRINGING
WARMING TEMPERATURES AND DRY CONDITIONS.

AS A REMINDER...THE FALL PRESCRIBED BURNING SEASON HAS STARTED IN
ERNEST...WITH MORE BURNS PLANNED ACROSS THE FOREST NEXT WEEK. WIND
SPEEDS WILL GENERALLY BE LIGHT...AND ALLOW SMOKE NEAR PRESCRIBED
BURNS TO FLOW INTO LOW LYING DRAINAGES...PARTICULARLY AT NIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 00Z PACKAGE...EXPECT GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS
THROUGH THE EVENING...WITH ISOLD-SCT -SHRA OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN
THROUGH 03Z. SCT -SHRA WILL DEVELOP AFTER 08Z AND CONTINUE THROUGH
SUNDAY...MAINLY OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN SOUTH AND EAST OF A LINE
FROM KPRC...KFLG...KRQE. AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR
AMENDMENTS.

&&

.FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&

$$

PUBLIC.........BAK/BOHLIN
AVIATION.......BAK

FOR NORTHERN ARIZONA WEATHER INFORMATION VISIT
WEATHER.GOV/FLAGSTAFF




000
FXUS65 KTWC 182136
AFDTWC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ
235 PM MST SAT OCT 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...A WEAK SYSTEM WILL THEN BRING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND A
FEW THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY EAST OF TUCSON EARLY THIS COMING WEEK.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING DRIER CONDITIONS DURING THE LATTER PART OF
THE WEEK ALONG WITH SEVERAL DEGREES OF WARMING.

&&

.DISCUSSION...ARIZONA WAS IN BETWEEN SYSTEMS TODAY WITH THE NEXT ONE
MOVING INTO THE AREA LATER TONIGHT AND SUNDAY. LATEST MODELS TRACK A
WEAK SYSTEM WITH LIMITED MOISTURE INTO SOUTHWEST ARIZONA/NORTHERN
BAJA TONIGHT. SATELLITE IMAGERY WAS SHOWING INCREASING CLOUDS ACROSS
MAINLY NORTHERN AND WESTERN ARIZONA THIS AFTERNOON IN ADVANCE OF THE
SYSTEM. EXPECT THIS CLOUDINESS TO SPREAD OVER THE REST OF THE STATE
TONIGHT. MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW LIMITED MOISTURE TO SUPPORT SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS AS THE SYSTEM TRACKS RATHER SLOWLY EASTWARD OVER
NORTHERN MEXICO THROUGH LATE TUESDAY. THAT SAID...WILL KEEP RAIN
CHANCES ON THE LOW SIDE AND CONFINED MAINLY TO AREAS EAST OF TUCSON
AND NOGALES. THEREAFTER...HIGH PRESSURE WAS PROGGED TO BUILD OVER
SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA AND ARIZONA RESULTING IN DRIER CONDITIONS AND A
WARMING TREND STATEWIDE AROUND THURSDAY INTO NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION...VALID THRU 20/00Z.
SKC-SCT CLOUDS MAINLY ABOVE 10K FT AGL THROUGH 19/06Z...WITH
GRADUALLY INCREASING CLOUD COVERAGE ABOVE 10K FT AGL INTO THE DAY
SUNDAY DUE TO A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE AND HIGHER LEVELS OF
MOISTURE. THERE WILL BE ENOUGH MOISTURE FOR ISOLD -SHRA/-TSRA MAINLY
EAST OF KTUS DURING THE DAY SUNDAY BUT NOT ENOUGH COVERAGE OR
CONFIDENCE TO INCLUDE IN TAFS AT THIS TIME. BREEZY SOUTH TO
SOUTHWEST WINDS FOR KOLS/KDUG WILL TAPER OFF EARLY THIS EVENING WITH
WINDS MAINLY LESS THAN 10 KTS THROUGH SUNDAY. GUSTY WINDS ARE
POSSIBLE IN/NEAR -TSRA ON SUNDAY. AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED
FOR TAF AMENDMENTS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE MOVING INTO THE AREA IN
COMBINATION WITH ADEQUATE MOISTURE WILL RESULT IN A CHANCE OF
SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY OR
WEDNESDAY...MAINLY EAST OF TUCSON. DRY CONDITIONS WILL THEN OCCUR
AREA WIDE THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK. 20-FOOT WINDS WILL BE DIURNAL
IN NATURE AND GENERALLY LESS THAN 15 MPH THIS WEEKEND AND INTO NEXT
WEEK. SOME GUSTY WINDS ARE POSSIBLE NEAR ANY THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

$$

VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...YOUTUBE...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/TUCSON






000
FXUS65 KTWC 182136
AFDTWC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ
235 PM MST SAT OCT 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...A WEAK SYSTEM WILL THEN BRING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND A
FEW THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY EAST OF TUCSON EARLY THIS COMING WEEK.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING DRIER CONDITIONS DURING THE LATTER PART OF
THE WEEK ALONG WITH SEVERAL DEGREES OF WARMING.

&&

.DISCUSSION...ARIZONA WAS IN BETWEEN SYSTEMS TODAY WITH THE NEXT ONE
MOVING INTO THE AREA LATER TONIGHT AND SUNDAY. LATEST MODELS TRACK A
WEAK SYSTEM WITH LIMITED MOISTURE INTO SOUTHWEST ARIZONA/NORTHERN
BAJA TONIGHT. SATELLITE IMAGERY WAS SHOWING INCREASING CLOUDS ACROSS
MAINLY NORTHERN AND WESTERN ARIZONA THIS AFTERNOON IN ADVANCE OF THE
SYSTEM. EXPECT THIS CLOUDINESS TO SPREAD OVER THE REST OF THE STATE
TONIGHT. MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW LIMITED MOISTURE TO SUPPORT SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS AS THE SYSTEM TRACKS RATHER SLOWLY EASTWARD OVER
NORTHERN MEXICO THROUGH LATE TUESDAY. THAT SAID...WILL KEEP RAIN
CHANCES ON THE LOW SIDE AND CONFINED MAINLY TO AREAS EAST OF TUCSON
AND NOGALES. THEREAFTER...HIGH PRESSURE WAS PROGGED TO BUILD OVER
SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA AND ARIZONA RESULTING IN DRIER CONDITIONS AND A
WARMING TREND STATEWIDE AROUND THURSDAY INTO NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION...VALID THRU 20/00Z.
SKC-SCT CLOUDS MAINLY ABOVE 10K FT AGL THROUGH 19/06Z...WITH
GRADUALLY INCREASING CLOUD COVERAGE ABOVE 10K FT AGL INTO THE DAY
SUNDAY DUE TO A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE AND HIGHER LEVELS OF
MOISTURE. THERE WILL BE ENOUGH MOISTURE FOR ISOLD -SHRA/-TSRA MAINLY
EAST OF KTUS DURING THE DAY SUNDAY BUT NOT ENOUGH COVERAGE OR
CONFIDENCE TO INCLUDE IN TAFS AT THIS TIME. BREEZY SOUTH TO
SOUTHWEST WINDS FOR KOLS/KDUG WILL TAPER OFF EARLY THIS EVENING WITH
WINDS MAINLY LESS THAN 10 KTS THROUGH SUNDAY. GUSTY WINDS ARE
POSSIBLE IN/NEAR -TSRA ON SUNDAY. AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED
FOR TAF AMENDMENTS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE MOVING INTO THE AREA IN
COMBINATION WITH ADEQUATE MOISTURE WILL RESULT IN A CHANCE OF
SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY OR
WEDNESDAY...MAINLY EAST OF TUCSON. DRY CONDITIONS WILL THEN OCCUR
AREA WIDE THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK. 20-FOOT WINDS WILL BE DIURNAL
IN NATURE AND GENERALLY LESS THAN 15 MPH THIS WEEKEND AND INTO NEXT
WEEK. SOME GUSTY WINDS ARE POSSIBLE NEAR ANY THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

$$

VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...YOUTUBE...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/TUCSON






000
FXUS65 KTWC 182136
AFDTWC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ
235 PM MST SAT OCT 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...A WEAK SYSTEM WILL THEN BRING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND A
FEW THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY EAST OF TUCSON EARLY THIS COMING WEEK.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING DRIER CONDITIONS DURING THE LATTER PART OF
THE WEEK ALONG WITH SEVERAL DEGREES OF WARMING.

&&

.DISCUSSION...ARIZONA WAS IN BETWEEN SYSTEMS TODAY WITH THE NEXT ONE
MOVING INTO THE AREA LATER TONIGHT AND SUNDAY. LATEST MODELS TRACK A
WEAK SYSTEM WITH LIMITED MOISTURE INTO SOUTHWEST ARIZONA/NORTHERN
BAJA TONIGHT. SATELLITE IMAGERY WAS SHOWING INCREASING CLOUDS ACROSS
MAINLY NORTHERN AND WESTERN ARIZONA THIS AFTERNOON IN ADVANCE OF THE
SYSTEM. EXPECT THIS CLOUDINESS TO SPREAD OVER THE REST OF THE STATE
TONIGHT. MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW LIMITED MOISTURE TO SUPPORT SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS AS THE SYSTEM TRACKS RATHER SLOWLY EASTWARD OVER
NORTHERN MEXICO THROUGH LATE TUESDAY. THAT SAID...WILL KEEP RAIN
CHANCES ON THE LOW SIDE AND CONFINED MAINLY TO AREAS EAST OF TUCSON
AND NOGALES. THEREAFTER...HIGH PRESSURE WAS PROGGED TO BUILD OVER
SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA AND ARIZONA RESULTING IN DRIER CONDITIONS AND A
WARMING TREND STATEWIDE AROUND THURSDAY INTO NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION...VALID THRU 20/00Z.
SKC-SCT CLOUDS MAINLY ABOVE 10K FT AGL THROUGH 19/06Z...WITH
GRADUALLY INCREASING CLOUD COVERAGE ABOVE 10K FT AGL INTO THE DAY
SUNDAY DUE TO A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE AND HIGHER LEVELS OF
MOISTURE. THERE WILL BE ENOUGH MOISTURE FOR ISOLD -SHRA/-TSRA MAINLY
EAST OF KTUS DURING THE DAY SUNDAY BUT NOT ENOUGH COVERAGE OR
CONFIDENCE TO INCLUDE IN TAFS AT THIS TIME. BREEZY SOUTH TO
SOUTHWEST WINDS FOR KOLS/KDUG WILL TAPER OFF EARLY THIS EVENING WITH
WINDS MAINLY LESS THAN 10 KTS THROUGH SUNDAY. GUSTY WINDS ARE
POSSIBLE IN/NEAR -TSRA ON SUNDAY. AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED
FOR TAF AMENDMENTS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE MOVING INTO THE AREA IN
COMBINATION WITH ADEQUATE MOISTURE WILL RESULT IN A CHANCE OF
SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY OR
WEDNESDAY...MAINLY EAST OF TUCSON. DRY CONDITIONS WILL THEN OCCUR
AREA WIDE THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK. 20-FOOT WINDS WILL BE DIURNAL
IN NATURE AND GENERALLY LESS THAN 15 MPH THIS WEEKEND AND INTO NEXT
WEEK. SOME GUSTY WINDS ARE POSSIBLE NEAR ANY THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

$$

VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...YOUTUBE...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/TUCSON






000
FXUS65 KTWC 182136
AFDTWC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ
235 PM MST SAT OCT 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...A WEAK SYSTEM WILL THEN BRING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND A
FEW THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY EAST OF TUCSON EARLY THIS COMING WEEK.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING DRIER CONDITIONS DURING THE LATTER PART OF
THE WEEK ALONG WITH SEVERAL DEGREES OF WARMING.

&&

.DISCUSSION...ARIZONA WAS IN BETWEEN SYSTEMS TODAY WITH THE NEXT ONE
MOVING INTO THE AREA LATER TONIGHT AND SUNDAY. LATEST MODELS TRACK A
WEAK SYSTEM WITH LIMITED MOISTURE INTO SOUTHWEST ARIZONA/NORTHERN
BAJA TONIGHT. SATELLITE IMAGERY WAS SHOWING INCREASING CLOUDS ACROSS
MAINLY NORTHERN AND WESTERN ARIZONA THIS AFTERNOON IN ADVANCE OF THE
SYSTEM. EXPECT THIS CLOUDINESS TO SPREAD OVER THE REST OF THE STATE
TONIGHT. MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW LIMITED MOISTURE TO SUPPORT SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS AS THE SYSTEM TRACKS RATHER SLOWLY EASTWARD OVER
NORTHERN MEXICO THROUGH LATE TUESDAY. THAT SAID...WILL KEEP RAIN
CHANCES ON THE LOW SIDE AND CONFINED MAINLY TO AREAS EAST OF TUCSON
AND NOGALES. THEREAFTER...HIGH PRESSURE WAS PROGGED TO BUILD OVER
SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA AND ARIZONA RESULTING IN DRIER CONDITIONS AND A
WARMING TREND STATEWIDE AROUND THURSDAY INTO NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION...VALID THRU 20/00Z.
SKC-SCT CLOUDS MAINLY ABOVE 10K FT AGL THROUGH 19/06Z...WITH
GRADUALLY INCREASING CLOUD COVERAGE ABOVE 10K FT AGL INTO THE DAY
SUNDAY DUE TO A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE AND HIGHER LEVELS OF
MOISTURE. THERE WILL BE ENOUGH MOISTURE FOR ISOLD -SHRA/-TSRA MAINLY
EAST OF KTUS DURING THE DAY SUNDAY BUT NOT ENOUGH COVERAGE OR
CONFIDENCE TO INCLUDE IN TAFS AT THIS TIME. BREEZY SOUTH TO
SOUTHWEST WINDS FOR KOLS/KDUG WILL TAPER OFF EARLY THIS EVENING WITH
WINDS MAINLY LESS THAN 10 KTS THROUGH SUNDAY. GUSTY WINDS ARE
POSSIBLE IN/NEAR -TSRA ON SUNDAY. AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED
FOR TAF AMENDMENTS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE MOVING INTO THE AREA IN
COMBINATION WITH ADEQUATE MOISTURE WILL RESULT IN A CHANCE OF
SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY OR
WEDNESDAY...MAINLY EAST OF TUCSON. DRY CONDITIONS WILL THEN OCCUR
AREA WIDE THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK. 20-FOOT WINDS WILL BE DIURNAL
IN NATURE AND GENERALLY LESS THAN 15 MPH THIS WEEKEND AND INTO NEXT
WEEK. SOME GUSTY WINDS ARE POSSIBLE NEAR ANY THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

$$

VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...YOUTUBE...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/TUCSON






000
FXUS65 KPSR 182024
AFDPSR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PHOENIX AZ
125 PM MST SAT OCT 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A SERIES OF WEATHER DISTURBANCES MOVE INTO THE REGION THROUGH EARLY
NEXT WEEK...HOWEVER A RELATIVELY DRY AIRMASS WILL LIMIT ANY
PRECIPITATION CHANCES TO THE MOUNTAINS OF CENTRAL AND EASTERN
ARIZONA. OTHERWISE VARIABLE CLOUDINESS CAN BE EXPECTED...WITH
SLIGHTLY WARMER THAN NORMAL AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES. A STRONG HIGH
PRESSURE SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO REBUILD OVER THE REGION BY THE END OF
NEXT WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
EARLY AFTERNOON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY DEPICTS LOW PRESSURE OFF THE
SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA COAST WITH HIGH CLOUDS MOVING THROUGH THE LOWER
COLORADO RIVER VALLEY. THE TROUGH IS QUITE MOISTURE STARVED IN THE
MID AND UPPER LEVELS AS THERE IS QUITE A BIT OF DRYING NOTED
IMMEDIATELY BEHIND THE TROUGH AXIS. MEANWHILE A SECOND UPPER LOW WAS
APPROACHING THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. ACROSS ARIZONA AND SOUTHEAST
CALIFORNIA...SKIES WERE PARTLY/MOSTLY SUNNY WITH TEMPS IN THE MID
80S AS OF 20Z.

THE FORECAST REMAINS LARGELY ON TRACK AS THE TROUGH OFF THE
CALIFORNIA COAST WILL DRIFT INLAND TONIGHT AND MOVE THROUGH ARIZONA
ON SUNDAY. THERE ARE A NUMBER OF FACTORS WORKING AGAINST WIDESPREAD
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS WITH THIS SYSTEM...PROBABLY THE BIGGEST OF
WHICH IS THE SHEARED NATURE OF THE SYSTEM AND THE RELATIVELY MEAGER
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES AHEAD OF THE TROUGH. MOST OF THE SHOWERS
AND/OR STORMS THAT DEVELOP WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL BE DIURNALLY DRIVEN
AND MAINLY LOCATED IN THE MOUNTAINS NORTH/EAST OF PHOENIX. ENSEMBLE
PROBABILITIES INDICATE THE LOWER DESERTS WILL REMAIN ENTIRELY DRY
WHILE LOCATIONS EAST OF PHOENIX FROM GLOBE TO HILLTOP STAND A BETTER
SHOT AT SEEING RAINFALL. LOCAL WRF ENSEMBLE AND SSEO ALSO INDICATES
BEST CHANCES IN SOUTHERN GILA COUNTY AND I WILL RETAIN 30 POPS IN
THOSE AREAS. SOME OF THE 12Z GUIDANCE IS INDICATING LOWER VALUES
/LIKELY DUE TO A SUBTLE DOWNWARD TREND IN PWATS AND SLIGHT SOUTHERN
SHIFT IN THE TRACK OF THE UPPER LOW/ BUT NONETHELESS THERE`S AT
LEAST A CHANCE OF RAINFALL IN THESE AREAS.

THE FLOW BEHIND THIS TROUGH WILL TEMPORARILY TURN OUT OF THE EAST ON
MONDAY AND IF ANY STORMS TRY AND DEVELOP IN THE MOUNTAINS MONDAY
AFTERNOON...THEY WILL RAPIDLY DISSIPATE AS THEY MOVE INTO A MUCH
MORE STABLE AIRMASS ACROSS THE LOWER DESERTS. ENSEMBLE PROBS ARE
ONCE AGAIN ELEVATED IN THE MOUNTAINS EAST OF PHOENIX BUT BY THEN THE
UPPER TROUGH SHOULD BE WELL ON ITS WAY INTO NEW MEXICO. LIKE
SUNDAY...ANY STORMS THAT DEVELOP WILL BE DIURNAL IN NATURE AND
SHOULD DISSIPATE SHORTLY BEFORE SUNSET.

TUESDAY WILL SEE THE TROUGH CURRENTLY NEAR THE PAC NW MOVE INLAND
AND MOVE MAINLY THROUGH UTAH. THIS CONTINUES THE NORTHWARD TREND
SEEN RECENTLY IN THE MODELS. AT THIS POINT IT APPEARS THE ONLY
IMPACTS ACROSS THIS PART OF ARIZONA AND SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA WILL BE
IN THE FORM OF INCREASING HIGH CLOUDS AND A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
MOUNTAIN SHOWERS EAST OF PHOENIX. MADE SLIGHT DOWNWARD REVISIONS TO
POPS ON TUESDAY...ALL IN ALL ITS SHAPING UP TO BE A RELATIVELY QUIET
WEEK ACROSS THE AREA. DESERT TEMPS WILL REMAIN IN THE UPPER 80S TO
LOWER 90S EACH DAY WITH SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL LOWS.

&&

.AVIATION...
SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA INCLUDING KPHX...KIWA AND KSDL...SOUTHEAST
CALIFORNIA AND SOUTHWEST ARIZONA INCLUDING KIPL AND KBLH...

SCT MID AND HIGH CLOUDS WILL GRADUALLY CLEAR OUT OVERNIGHT. WINDS AT
ALL TAF SITES WILL REMAIN MAINLY LIGHT AND VARIABLE THROUGH SUNDAY
MORNING.

AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDED TAFS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...
A PAIR OF LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS PASSING THROUGH THE AREA WILL BRING A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS TO THE HIGHER TERRAIN
AREAS EAST OF PHOENIX...WITH THE BEST CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION ON
MONDAY AND TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. A GRADUAL DRYING TREND IS
EXPECTED THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD...WITH MINIMUM HUMIDITIES IN
THE LOWER DESERTS RANGING FROM AROUND 20 PERCENT ON TUESDAY TO THE
LOW TO MID TEENS ON SATURDAY. WINDS WILL BE GENERALLY LIGHT AND
FOLLOW TYPICAL DIURNAL PATTERNS EACH DAY.

&&

.PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

AZ...NONE.

CA...NONE.

&&

$$

VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/PHOENIX

DISCUSSION...LEINS
AVIATION...MCLANE
FIRE WEATHER...MCLANE/CB






000
FXUS65 KPSR 182024
AFDPSR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PHOENIX AZ
125 PM MST SAT OCT 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A SERIES OF WEATHER DISTURBANCES MOVE INTO THE REGION THROUGH EARLY
NEXT WEEK...HOWEVER A RELATIVELY DRY AIRMASS WILL LIMIT ANY
PRECIPITATION CHANCES TO THE MOUNTAINS OF CENTRAL AND EASTERN
ARIZONA. OTHERWISE VARIABLE CLOUDINESS CAN BE EXPECTED...WITH
SLIGHTLY WARMER THAN NORMAL AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES. A STRONG HIGH
PRESSURE SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO REBUILD OVER THE REGION BY THE END OF
NEXT WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
EARLY AFTERNOON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY DEPICTS LOW PRESSURE OFF THE
SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA COAST WITH HIGH CLOUDS MOVING THROUGH THE LOWER
COLORADO RIVER VALLEY. THE TROUGH IS QUITE MOISTURE STARVED IN THE
MID AND UPPER LEVELS AS THERE IS QUITE A BIT OF DRYING NOTED
IMMEDIATELY BEHIND THE TROUGH AXIS. MEANWHILE A SECOND UPPER LOW WAS
APPROACHING THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. ACROSS ARIZONA AND SOUTHEAST
CALIFORNIA...SKIES WERE PARTLY/MOSTLY SUNNY WITH TEMPS IN THE MID
80S AS OF 20Z.

THE FORECAST REMAINS LARGELY ON TRACK AS THE TROUGH OFF THE
CALIFORNIA COAST WILL DRIFT INLAND TONIGHT AND MOVE THROUGH ARIZONA
ON SUNDAY. THERE ARE A NUMBER OF FACTORS WORKING AGAINST WIDESPREAD
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS WITH THIS SYSTEM...PROBABLY THE BIGGEST OF
WHICH IS THE SHEARED NATURE OF THE SYSTEM AND THE RELATIVELY MEAGER
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES AHEAD OF THE TROUGH. MOST OF THE SHOWERS
AND/OR STORMS THAT DEVELOP WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL BE DIURNALLY DRIVEN
AND MAINLY LOCATED IN THE MOUNTAINS NORTH/EAST OF PHOENIX. ENSEMBLE
PROBABILITIES INDICATE THE LOWER DESERTS WILL REMAIN ENTIRELY DRY
WHILE LOCATIONS EAST OF PHOENIX FROM GLOBE TO HILLTOP STAND A BETTER
SHOT AT SEEING RAINFALL. LOCAL WRF ENSEMBLE AND SSEO ALSO INDICATES
BEST CHANCES IN SOUTHERN GILA COUNTY AND I WILL RETAIN 30 POPS IN
THOSE AREAS. SOME OF THE 12Z GUIDANCE IS INDICATING LOWER VALUES
/LIKELY DUE TO A SUBTLE DOWNWARD TREND IN PWATS AND SLIGHT SOUTHERN
SHIFT IN THE TRACK OF THE UPPER LOW/ BUT NONETHELESS THERE`S AT
LEAST A CHANCE OF RAINFALL IN THESE AREAS.

THE FLOW BEHIND THIS TROUGH WILL TEMPORARILY TURN OUT OF THE EAST ON
MONDAY AND IF ANY STORMS TRY AND DEVELOP IN THE MOUNTAINS MONDAY
AFTERNOON...THEY WILL RAPIDLY DISSIPATE AS THEY MOVE INTO A MUCH
MORE STABLE AIRMASS ACROSS THE LOWER DESERTS. ENSEMBLE PROBS ARE
ONCE AGAIN ELEVATED IN THE MOUNTAINS EAST OF PHOENIX BUT BY THEN THE
UPPER TROUGH SHOULD BE WELL ON ITS WAY INTO NEW MEXICO. LIKE
SUNDAY...ANY STORMS THAT DEVELOP WILL BE DIURNAL IN NATURE AND
SHOULD DISSIPATE SHORTLY BEFORE SUNSET.

TUESDAY WILL SEE THE TROUGH CURRENTLY NEAR THE PAC NW MOVE INLAND
AND MOVE MAINLY THROUGH UTAH. THIS CONTINUES THE NORTHWARD TREND
SEEN RECENTLY IN THE MODELS. AT THIS POINT IT APPEARS THE ONLY
IMPACTS ACROSS THIS PART OF ARIZONA AND SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA WILL BE
IN THE FORM OF INCREASING HIGH CLOUDS AND A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
MOUNTAIN SHOWERS EAST OF PHOENIX. MADE SLIGHT DOWNWARD REVISIONS TO
POPS ON TUESDAY...ALL IN ALL ITS SHAPING UP TO BE A RELATIVELY QUIET
WEEK ACROSS THE AREA. DESERT TEMPS WILL REMAIN IN THE UPPER 80S TO
LOWER 90S EACH DAY WITH SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL LOWS.

&&

.AVIATION...
SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA INCLUDING KPHX...KIWA AND KSDL...SOUTHEAST
CALIFORNIA AND SOUTHWEST ARIZONA INCLUDING KIPL AND KBLH...

SCT MID AND HIGH CLOUDS WILL GRADUALLY CLEAR OUT OVERNIGHT. WINDS AT
ALL TAF SITES WILL REMAIN MAINLY LIGHT AND VARIABLE THROUGH SUNDAY
MORNING.

AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDED TAFS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...
A PAIR OF LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS PASSING THROUGH THE AREA WILL BRING A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS TO THE HIGHER TERRAIN
AREAS EAST OF PHOENIX...WITH THE BEST CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION ON
MONDAY AND TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. A GRADUAL DRYING TREND IS
EXPECTED THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD...WITH MINIMUM HUMIDITIES IN
THE LOWER DESERTS RANGING FROM AROUND 20 PERCENT ON TUESDAY TO THE
LOW TO MID TEENS ON SATURDAY. WINDS WILL BE GENERALLY LIGHT AND
FOLLOW TYPICAL DIURNAL PATTERNS EACH DAY.

&&

.PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

AZ...NONE.

CA...NONE.

&&

$$

VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/PHOENIX

DISCUSSION...LEINS
AVIATION...MCLANE
FIRE WEATHER...MCLANE/CB





000
FXUS65 KTWC 181636
AFDTWC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ
936 AM MST SAT OCT 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...DRY AND WARM TODAY. A WEAK TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE OVER
THE AREA WILL THEN BRING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS
MAINLY EAST OF TUCSON THE FIRST HALF OF THE NEW WEEK. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BRING DRIER CONDITIONS DURING THE LATTER PART OF NEXT WEEK
ALONG WITH SEVERAL DEGREES OF WARMING.

&&

.DISCUSSION...MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES ACROSS SOUTHEAST ARIZONA AS THE
AREA REMAINS IN BETWEEN TWO WEATHER SYSTEMS TODAY. THE NEXT WEATHER
SYSTEM APPROACHING THE AREA THIS MORNING WILL BRING A CHANCE OF
SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS TO MAINLY LOCATIONS EAST OF TUCSON SUNDAY
INTO TUESDAY. CURRENT FORECAST REFLECTED THESE TRENDS WELL...SO NO
UPDATES ANTICIPATED THIS MORNING. PLEASE REFER TO THE ADDITIONAL
SECTIONS IN THIS PRODUCT FOR MORE DETAILS.

&&

.AVIATION...VALID THRU 19/18Z.
A RELATIVELY DRY SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW AHEAD OF A WEAK TROUGH WILL
CONTINUE VFR CONDITIONS ACROSS SE AZ WITH SCT CLOUDS ABOVE 12-15K FT
AGL. SURFACE WIND THROUGH EARLY SUNDAY MORNING WILL EXHIBIT NORMAL
DIURNAL WIND TRENDS GENERALLY LESS THAN 10 KTS. AVIATION DISCUSSION
NOT UPDATED FOR TAF AMENDMENTS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...MOSTLY CLEAR TODAY WITH MODEST MOISTURE. A TROUGH OF
LOW PRESSURE OVER THE AREA IN COMBINATION WITH ADEQUATE MOISTURE
WILL RESULT IN A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS SUNDAY
THROUGH TUESDAY OR WEDNESDAY...MAINLY EAST OF TUCSON. DRY CONDITIONS
WILL THEN OCCUR AREA WIDE THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK. 20-FOOT WINDS
WILL BE DIURNAL IN NATURE AND GENERALLY LESS THAN 15 MPH THIS
WEEKEND AND INTO NEXT WEEK.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW BEHIND SUBTROPICAL IMPULSE NOW
LIFTING DOWNSTREAM THROUGH NEW MEXICO. ANOTHER IMPULSE UNDERCUTTING
THE RIDGE AND LOSING HIGHER LATITUDE SUPPORT PHASING IN FROM
SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA AND NORTHERN BAJA OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. IT
STILL WON`T HAVE A LOT OF MOISTURE TO WORK WITH FOR MUCH OF OUR AREA
AS WE CONTINUE TO SEE THE BEST MOISTURE AXIS DRAWN UP THROUGH NEW
MEXICO LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. BEST SHOWER COVERAGE STILL EXPECTED
TO BE EAST OF TUCSON...ESPECIALLY NEAR THE NEW MEXICO BORDER.

AS THE LARGER SCALE RIDGE AXIS SHIFTS EASTWARD WE WILL PICK UP
HIGHER LATITUDE FLOW DIGGING WEAKLY INTO THE REGION TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY. THIS SHOULD LIFT AND SHEAR THE WEAK MID LEVEL IMPULSE OUT
OF THE PICTURE BY LATE WEDNESDAY. A GENERAL MODEL ENSEMBLE
COMPROMISE SEEMS TO HANDLE THIS WELL WITH SIMILAR TREATMENT OF THE
FULL LATITUDE TROUGH AS IT NEARS THE WEST COAST AS WELL AS THE
INITIAL WEAK SOUTHERLY SPLIT.

HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN ACROSS SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA AND ARIZONA
WILL BRING DRIER CONDITIONS AND A WARMING TREND THE SECOND HALF OF
THE WEEK. AFTERNOON HIGHS CLIMB BACK TO AROUND 6-7 DEGREES ABOVE
CLIMO BY FRIDAY.

&&

.TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

$$

VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...YOUTUBE...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/TUCSON










000
FXUS65 KTWC 181636
AFDTWC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ
936 AM MST SAT OCT 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...DRY AND WARM TODAY. A WEAK TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE OVER
THE AREA WILL THEN BRING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS
MAINLY EAST OF TUCSON THE FIRST HALF OF THE NEW WEEK. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BRING DRIER CONDITIONS DURING THE LATTER PART OF NEXT WEEK
ALONG WITH SEVERAL DEGREES OF WARMING.

&&

.DISCUSSION...MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES ACROSS SOUTHEAST ARIZONA AS THE
AREA REMAINS IN BETWEEN TWO WEATHER SYSTEMS TODAY. THE NEXT WEATHER
SYSTEM APPROACHING THE AREA THIS MORNING WILL BRING A CHANCE OF
SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS TO MAINLY LOCATIONS EAST OF TUCSON SUNDAY
INTO TUESDAY. CURRENT FORECAST REFLECTED THESE TRENDS WELL...SO NO
UPDATES ANTICIPATED THIS MORNING. PLEASE REFER TO THE ADDITIONAL
SECTIONS IN THIS PRODUCT FOR MORE DETAILS.

&&

.AVIATION...VALID THRU 19/18Z.
A RELATIVELY DRY SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW AHEAD OF A WEAK TROUGH WILL
CONTINUE VFR CONDITIONS ACROSS SE AZ WITH SCT CLOUDS ABOVE 12-15K FT
AGL. SURFACE WIND THROUGH EARLY SUNDAY MORNING WILL EXHIBIT NORMAL
DIURNAL WIND TRENDS GENERALLY LESS THAN 10 KTS. AVIATION DISCUSSION
NOT UPDATED FOR TAF AMENDMENTS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...MOSTLY CLEAR TODAY WITH MODEST MOISTURE. A TROUGH OF
LOW PRESSURE OVER THE AREA IN COMBINATION WITH ADEQUATE MOISTURE
WILL RESULT IN A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS SUNDAY
THROUGH TUESDAY OR WEDNESDAY...MAINLY EAST OF TUCSON. DRY CONDITIONS
WILL THEN OCCUR AREA WIDE THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK. 20-FOOT WINDS
WILL BE DIURNAL IN NATURE AND GENERALLY LESS THAN 15 MPH THIS
WEEKEND AND INTO NEXT WEEK.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW BEHIND SUBTROPICAL IMPULSE NOW
LIFTING DOWNSTREAM THROUGH NEW MEXICO. ANOTHER IMPULSE UNDERCUTTING
THE RIDGE AND LOSING HIGHER LATITUDE SUPPORT PHASING IN FROM
SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA AND NORTHERN BAJA OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. IT
STILL WON`T HAVE A LOT OF MOISTURE TO WORK WITH FOR MUCH OF OUR AREA
AS WE CONTINUE TO SEE THE BEST MOISTURE AXIS DRAWN UP THROUGH NEW
MEXICO LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. BEST SHOWER COVERAGE STILL EXPECTED
TO BE EAST OF TUCSON...ESPECIALLY NEAR THE NEW MEXICO BORDER.

AS THE LARGER SCALE RIDGE AXIS SHIFTS EASTWARD WE WILL PICK UP
HIGHER LATITUDE FLOW DIGGING WEAKLY INTO THE REGION TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY. THIS SHOULD LIFT AND SHEAR THE WEAK MID LEVEL IMPULSE OUT
OF THE PICTURE BY LATE WEDNESDAY. A GENERAL MODEL ENSEMBLE
COMPROMISE SEEMS TO HANDLE THIS WELL WITH SIMILAR TREATMENT OF THE
FULL LATITUDE TROUGH AS IT NEARS THE WEST COAST AS WELL AS THE
INITIAL WEAK SOUTHERLY SPLIT.

HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN ACROSS SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA AND ARIZONA
WILL BRING DRIER CONDITIONS AND A WARMING TREND THE SECOND HALF OF
THE WEEK. AFTERNOON HIGHS CLIMB BACK TO AROUND 6-7 DEGREES ABOVE
CLIMO BY FRIDAY.

&&

.TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

$$

VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...YOUTUBE...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/TUCSON









000
FXUS65 KFGZ 181626
AFDFGZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ
930 AM MST SAT OCT 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...PERIODS OF UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL CONTINUE ACROSS
NORTHERN ARIZONA THROUGH NEXT TUESDAY AS A SERIES OF WEAK LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEMS MOVE THROUGH THE REGION. SHOWER COVERAGE WILL BE
LOW WITH LIGHT AMOUNTS OF RAINFALL. HIGH PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO
MOVE INTO THE REGION WEDNESDAY AND INTO NEXT WEEKEND BRINGING A
PERIOD OF CLEARING SKIES AND FAIR WEATHER.

&&

.DISCUSSION...SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...THE WESTERN US WILL BE
UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A LOW PRESSURE TROUGH PATTERN WITH SEVERAL
WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS MOVING THROUGH THE LARGE SCALE TROUGH AND
COMING ACROSS NORTHERN ARIZONA. THIS PATTERN WILL BRINGING PERIODS
OF CLOUD COVER ALONG WITH CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS... RAINFALL AMOUNTS ARE FORECAST TO BE FAIRLY LIGHT. A
MILD WESTERLY FLOW OFF THE PACIFIC ALONG WITH MOISTURE AND CLOUDS
WILL KEEP OUR TEMPERATURES JUST A FEW DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL FOR THIS
TIME OF YEAR.

WEDNESDAY INTO NEXT WEEKEND...THE FORECAST MODELS INDICATE A RIDGE
OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO THE WESTERN STATES DURING THIS TIME
PERIOD BRINGING WARMING TEMPERATURES AND DRY CONDITIONS.

THE FALL PRESCRIBED BURNING SEASON HAS STARTED IN ERNEST THIS WEEK
WITH MORE BURNS PLANNED ACROSS THE FOREST NEXT WEEK. WIND SPEEDS
WILL BE LIGHT AND OVERNIGHT BOUNDARY LAYER MIXING WILL DIMINISH
CAUSING SMOKE NEAR PRESCRIBED BURNS TO FLOW INTO LOW LYING DRAINAGE
AREAS.
&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 18Z PACKAGE...EXPECT SCT-BKN CU/SC WITH BASES
FROM 7-10KFT AGL THROUGH THE PERIOD...WITH ISOLD TO SCT -SHRA OVER
HIGHER TERRAIN FROM 20Z-06Z. LOCALLY LOWER BASES NEAR SHOWERS.
AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDMENTS.

&&

.FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&

$$

PUBLIC.........BOHLIN/TC
AVIATION.......BAK

FOR NORTHERN ARIZONA WEATHER INFORMATION VISIT
WEATHER.GOV/FLAGSTAFF





000
FXUS65 KFGZ 181626
AFDFGZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ
930 AM MST SAT OCT 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...PERIODS OF UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL CONTINUE ACROSS
NORTHERN ARIZONA THROUGH NEXT TUESDAY AS A SERIES OF WEAK LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEMS MOVE THROUGH THE REGION. SHOWER COVERAGE WILL BE
LOW WITH LIGHT AMOUNTS OF RAINFALL. HIGH PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO
MOVE INTO THE REGION WEDNESDAY AND INTO NEXT WEEKEND BRINGING A
PERIOD OF CLEARING SKIES AND FAIR WEATHER.

&&

.DISCUSSION...SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...THE WESTERN US WILL BE
UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A LOW PRESSURE TROUGH PATTERN WITH SEVERAL
WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS MOVING THROUGH THE LARGE SCALE TROUGH AND
COMING ACROSS NORTHERN ARIZONA. THIS PATTERN WILL BRINGING PERIODS
OF CLOUD COVER ALONG WITH CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS... RAINFALL AMOUNTS ARE FORECAST TO BE FAIRLY LIGHT. A
MILD WESTERLY FLOW OFF THE PACIFIC ALONG WITH MOISTURE AND CLOUDS
WILL KEEP OUR TEMPERATURES JUST A FEW DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL FOR THIS
TIME OF YEAR.

WEDNESDAY INTO NEXT WEEKEND...THE FORECAST MODELS INDICATE A RIDGE
OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO THE WESTERN STATES DURING THIS TIME
PERIOD BRINGING WARMING TEMPERATURES AND DRY CONDITIONS.

THE FALL PRESCRIBED BURNING SEASON HAS STARTED IN ERNEST THIS WEEK
WITH MORE BURNS PLANNED ACROSS THE FOREST NEXT WEEK. WIND SPEEDS
WILL BE LIGHT AND OVERNIGHT BOUNDARY LAYER MIXING WILL DIMINISH
CAUSING SMOKE NEAR PRESCRIBED BURNS TO FLOW INTO LOW LYING DRAINAGE
AREAS.
&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 18Z PACKAGE...EXPECT SCT-BKN CU/SC WITH BASES
FROM 7-10KFT AGL THROUGH THE PERIOD...WITH ISOLD TO SCT -SHRA OVER
HIGHER TERRAIN FROM 20Z-06Z. LOCALLY LOWER BASES NEAR SHOWERS.
AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDMENTS.

&&

.FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&

$$

PUBLIC.........BOHLIN/TC
AVIATION.......BAK

FOR NORTHERN ARIZONA WEATHER INFORMATION VISIT
WEATHER.GOV/FLAGSTAFF





000
FXUS65 KFGZ 181626
AFDFGZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ
930 AM MST SAT OCT 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...PERIODS OF UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL CONTINUE ACROSS
NORTHERN ARIZONA THROUGH NEXT TUESDAY AS A SERIES OF WEAK LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEMS MOVE THROUGH THE REGION. SHOWER COVERAGE WILL BE
LOW WITH LIGHT AMOUNTS OF RAINFALL. HIGH PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO
MOVE INTO THE REGION WEDNESDAY AND INTO NEXT WEEKEND BRINGING A
PERIOD OF CLEARING SKIES AND FAIR WEATHER.

&&

.DISCUSSION...SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...THE WESTERN US WILL BE
UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A LOW PRESSURE TROUGH PATTERN WITH SEVERAL
WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS MOVING THROUGH THE LARGE SCALE TROUGH AND
COMING ACROSS NORTHERN ARIZONA. THIS PATTERN WILL BRINGING PERIODS
OF CLOUD COVER ALONG WITH CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS... RAINFALL AMOUNTS ARE FORECAST TO BE FAIRLY LIGHT. A
MILD WESTERLY FLOW OFF THE PACIFIC ALONG WITH MOISTURE AND CLOUDS
WILL KEEP OUR TEMPERATURES JUST A FEW DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL FOR THIS
TIME OF YEAR.

WEDNESDAY INTO NEXT WEEKEND...THE FORECAST MODELS INDICATE A RIDGE
OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO THE WESTERN STATES DURING THIS TIME
PERIOD BRINGING WARMING TEMPERATURES AND DRY CONDITIONS.

THE FALL PRESCRIBED BURNING SEASON HAS STARTED IN ERNEST THIS WEEK
WITH MORE BURNS PLANNED ACROSS THE FOREST NEXT WEEK. WIND SPEEDS
WILL BE LIGHT AND OVERNIGHT BOUNDARY LAYER MIXING WILL DIMINISH
CAUSING SMOKE NEAR PRESCRIBED BURNS TO FLOW INTO LOW LYING DRAINAGE
AREAS.
&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 18Z PACKAGE...EXPECT SCT-BKN CU/SC WITH BASES
FROM 7-10KFT AGL THROUGH THE PERIOD...WITH ISOLD TO SCT -SHRA OVER
HIGHER TERRAIN FROM 20Z-06Z. LOCALLY LOWER BASES NEAR SHOWERS.
AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDMENTS.

&&

.FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&

$$

PUBLIC.........BOHLIN/TC
AVIATION.......BAK

FOR NORTHERN ARIZONA WEATHER INFORMATION VISIT
WEATHER.GOV/FLAGSTAFF





000
FXUS65 KFGZ 181626
AFDFGZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ
930 AM MST SAT OCT 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...PERIODS OF UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL CONTINUE ACROSS
NORTHERN ARIZONA THROUGH NEXT TUESDAY AS A SERIES OF WEAK LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEMS MOVE THROUGH THE REGION. SHOWER COVERAGE WILL BE
LOW WITH LIGHT AMOUNTS OF RAINFALL. HIGH PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO
MOVE INTO THE REGION WEDNESDAY AND INTO NEXT WEEKEND BRINGING A
PERIOD OF CLEARING SKIES AND FAIR WEATHER.

&&

.DISCUSSION...SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...THE WESTERN US WILL BE
UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A LOW PRESSURE TROUGH PATTERN WITH SEVERAL
WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS MOVING THROUGH THE LARGE SCALE TROUGH AND
COMING ACROSS NORTHERN ARIZONA. THIS PATTERN WILL BRINGING PERIODS
OF CLOUD COVER ALONG WITH CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS... RAINFALL AMOUNTS ARE FORECAST TO BE FAIRLY LIGHT. A
MILD WESTERLY FLOW OFF THE PACIFIC ALONG WITH MOISTURE AND CLOUDS
WILL KEEP OUR TEMPERATURES JUST A FEW DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL FOR THIS
TIME OF YEAR.

WEDNESDAY INTO NEXT WEEKEND...THE FORECAST MODELS INDICATE A RIDGE
OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO THE WESTERN STATES DURING THIS TIME
PERIOD BRINGING WARMING TEMPERATURES AND DRY CONDITIONS.

THE FALL PRESCRIBED BURNING SEASON HAS STARTED IN ERNEST THIS WEEK
WITH MORE BURNS PLANNED ACROSS THE FOREST NEXT WEEK. WIND SPEEDS
WILL BE LIGHT AND OVERNIGHT BOUNDARY LAYER MIXING WILL DIMINISH
CAUSING SMOKE NEAR PRESCRIBED BURNS TO FLOW INTO LOW LYING DRAINAGE
AREAS.
&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 18Z PACKAGE...EXPECT SCT-BKN CU/SC WITH BASES
FROM 7-10KFT AGL THROUGH THE PERIOD...WITH ISOLD TO SCT -SHRA OVER
HIGHER TERRAIN FROM 20Z-06Z. LOCALLY LOWER BASES NEAR SHOWERS.
AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDMENTS.

&&

.FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&

$$

PUBLIC.........BOHLIN/TC
AVIATION.......BAK

FOR NORTHERN ARIZONA WEATHER INFORMATION VISIT
WEATHER.GOV/FLAGSTAFF





000
FXUS65 KPSR 181610
AFDPSR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PHOENIX AZ
909 AM MST SAT OCT 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A SERIES OF WEATHER DISTURBANCES MOVE INTO THE REGION THROUGH EARLY
NEXT WEEK...HOWEVER A RELATIVELY DRY AIRMASS WILL LIMIT ANY
PRECIPITATION CHANCES TO THE MOUNTAINS OF CENTRAL AND EASTERN
ARIZONA. OTHERWISE VARIABLE CLOUDINESS CAN BE EXPECTED...WITH
SLIGHTLY WARMER THAN NORMAL AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES. A STRONG HIGH
PRESSURE SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO REBUILD OVER THE REGION BY THE END OF
NEXT WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
MID MORNING SATELLITE IMAGERY REVEALS YESTERDAYS COMPACT TROUGH
OVER NORTHERN NEW MEXICO...WITH ANOTHER MUCH WEAKER TROUGH OVER
SOUTHERN NEVADA AND NORTHWEST ARIZONA. NOT EXACTLY A COPIOUS AMOUNT
OF CLOUD COVER WITH THIS UPSTREAM TROUGH AND IT APPEARS THE THICKEST
CLOUD COVER WILL BE CONFINED TO NORTHERN ARIZONA...BUT THERE ARE
SOME MID CLOUDS MOVING THROUGH THE LOWER DESERTS. GOING TO MAKE SOME
MINOR REVISIONS TO THE SKY GRIDS TO TRY AND BETTER CAPTURE THESE
CLOUDS AS THEY MOVE THROUGH...OTHERWISE THE FORECAST IS IN GOOD
SHAPE. DESPITE THE CLOUD COVER...TEMPERATURES STILL STAND A GOOD
SHOT TO MAKE IT INTO THE LOWER 90S THIS AFTERNOON. NO MAJOR CHANGES
MADE TO TEMPS.

&&

.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
TODAY AND SUNDAY...
OTHERWISE...AS THE TROF APPROACHES AZ THIS AFTERNOON ITS STILL
FORECAST SHEAR EASTWARD IN THE VERTICAL...WITH THE 300/250 MB TROF
MOVING INTO NORTHWEST AZ BY EVENING...AND THE 500 MB LOW CENTER
SINKING SOUTH TOWARD SAN DIEGO. AGAIN...THIS EASTWARD VERTICALLY
TILTED TROF IS NON-DYNAMICAL...AND ANY PRECIP CHANCES TODAY SHOULD
COME WITH DIURNAL INSTABILITY MAINLY ACROSS THE NORTHWEST QUARTER OF
AZ. FARTHER SOUTH IN OUR FORECAST AREA...SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH CENTRAL
AZ...VERY LITTLE PRECIP IS EXPECTED TODAY DUE TO A RELATIVELY DRY
BOUNDARY LAYER. CONVECTIVE TRIGGER TEMPERATURES ARE ABOUT 3 DEGREES
HIGHER THAN THE FORECAST HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR TODAY. PARTLY CLOUDY
TONIGHT.

ON SUNDAY...THE 500 MB COLD POOL WILL SPREAD EAST ACROSS THE
SOUTHEAST QUARTER OF AZ. BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE WILL BE HIGH ENOUGH
OVER EASTERN AZ...INCLUDING PORTIONS OF OUR ZONE 24...FOR A CHANCE
OF AFTERNOON INSTABILITY MOUNTAIN SHOWERS THROUGH EARLY EVENING.
DRY ELSEWHERE.

MONDAY...
A TRANSITORY HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL MOVE ACROSS AZ MONDAY
PROVIDING MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES WITH SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL AFTERNOON
TEMPERATURES.

TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...
ANOTHER IN A SERIES OF PACIFIC DISTURBANCES WILL MOVE INTO THE
WESTERN STATES INCLUDING AZ TUESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH EARLY
WEDNESDAY. THE LACK OF MOISTURE AND DYNAMICS IN OUR FORECAST AREA
WILL PRECLUDE ANY SHOWERS. HOWEVER...UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT FROM THIS
SYSTEM DEVELOPS IN NORTHEAST AZ...AND ALONG THE EASTERN AZ BORDER
CLOSE TO OUR ZONE 24...HOWEVER AT THIS TIME WE FEEL ANY PRECIP
THREATS ARE LOW.

THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...
A STRONG HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION THIS
PERIOD. MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES WITH NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE
FORECAST.

&&

.AVIATION...
SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA INCLUDING KPHX...KIWA AND KSDL...SOUTHEAST
CALIFORNIA AND SOUTHWEST ARIZONA INCLUDING KIPL AND KBLH...

MID AND HIGH CLOUDS...BROKEN AT TIMES...WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT AREA
TERMINALS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS BEFORE SKIES GRADUALLY CLEAR
OUT FOR TONIGHT. WINDS WILL STAY ON THE LIGHT SIDE NEXT 24 HOURS
FAVORING NORMAL DIURNAL SPEEDS/DIRECTIONS ESPECIALLY OVER THE
CENTRAL AZ DESERT TERMINALS.

AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDED TAFS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...
A PAIR OF LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS WILL PASS THROUGH THE AREA MONDAY
THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK...BRINGING A SLIGHT CHANCE AT
TIMES FOR SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS TO THE HIGHER TERRAIN AREAS EAST
OF PHOENIX. THE BEST CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION WILL BE MONDAY AND
TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. HUMIDITIES WILL REMAIN ELEVATED
THROUGH TUESDAY WITH MINIMUM RH VALUES GENERALLY 20 TO 30
PERCENT...WITH A DRYING TREND TO FOLLOW THROUGH THE END OF THE
FORECAST PERIOD. BY FRIDAY EXPECT VALUES DROPPING IN TO THE TEENS
WEST OF PHOENIX...BUT REMAINING ELEVATED OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN
AREAS TO THE EAST OF PHOENIX. OTHERWISE...NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES
ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD AND WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE LIGHT
AND DIURNAL EACH DAY.

&&

.PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

AZ...NONE.

CA...NONE.

&&

$$

VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/PHOENIX

DISCUSSION...LEINS/VASQUEZ
AVIATION...KUHLMAN
FIRE WEATHER...CB






000
FXUS65 KPSR 181610
AFDPSR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PHOENIX AZ
909 AM MST SAT OCT 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A SERIES OF WEATHER DISTURBANCES MOVE INTO THE REGION THROUGH EARLY
NEXT WEEK...HOWEVER A RELATIVELY DRY AIRMASS WILL LIMIT ANY
PRECIPITATION CHANCES TO THE MOUNTAINS OF CENTRAL AND EASTERN
ARIZONA. OTHERWISE VARIABLE CLOUDINESS CAN BE EXPECTED...WITH
SLIGHTLY WARMER THAN NORMAL AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES. A STRONG HIGH
PRESSURE SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO REBUILD OVER THE REGION BY THE END OF
NEXT WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
MID MORNING SATELLITE IMAGERY REVEALS YESTERDAYS COMPACT TROUGH
OVER NORTHERN NEW MEXICO...WITH ANOTHER MUCH WEAKER TROUGH OVER
SOUTHERN NEVADA AND NORTHWEST ARIZONA. NOT EXACTLY A COPIOUS AMOUNT
OF CLOUD COVER WITH THIS UPSTREAM TROUGH AND IT APPEARS THE THICKEST
CLOUD COVER WILL BE CONFINED TO NORTHERN ARIZONA...BUT THERE ARE
SOME MID CLOUDS MOVING THROUGH THE LOWER DESERTS. GOING TO MAKE SOME
MINOR REVISIONS TO THE SKY GRIDS TO TRY AND BETTER CAPTURE THESE
CLOUDS AS THEY MOVE THROUGH...OTHERWISE THE FORECAST IS IN GOOD
SHAPE. DESPITE THE CLOUD COVER...TEMPERATURES STILL STAND A GOOD
SHOT TO MAKE IT INTO THE LOWER 90S THIS AFTERNOON. NO MAJOR CHANGES
MADE TO TEMPS.

&&

.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
TODAY AND SUNDAY...
OTHERWISE...AS THE TROF APPROACHES AZ THIS AFTERNOON ITS STILL
FORECAST SHEAR EASTWARD IN THE VERTICAL...WITH THE 300/250 MB TROF
MOVING INTO NORTHWEST AZ BY EVENING...AND THE 500 MB LOW CENTER
SINKING SOUTH TOWARD SAN DIEGO. AGAIN...THIS EASTWARD VERTICALLY
TILTED TROF IS NON-DYNAMICAL...AND ANY PRECIP CHANCES TODAY SHOULD
COME WITH DIURNAL INSTABILITY MAINLY ACROSS THE NORTHWEST QUARTER OF
AZ. FARTHER SOUTH IN OUR FORECAST AREA...SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH CENTRAL
AZ...VERY LITTLE PRECIP IS EXPECTED TODAY DUE TO A RELATIVELY DRY
BOUNDARY LAYER. CONVECTIVE TRIGGER TEMPERATURES ARE ABOUT 3 DEGREES
HIGHER THAN THE FORECAST HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR TODAY. PARTLY CLOUDY
TONIGHT.

ON SUNDAY...THE 500 MB COLD POOL WILL SPREAD EAST ACROSS THE
SOUTHEAST QUARTER OF AZ. BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE WILL BE HIGH ENOUGH
OVER EASTERN AZ...INCLUDING PORTIONS OF OUR ZONE 24...FOR A CHANCE
OF AFTERNOON INSTABILITY MOUNTAIN SHOWERS THROUGH EARLY EVENING.
DRY ELSEWHERE.

MONDAY...
A TRANSITORY HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL MOVE ACROSS AZ MONDAY
PROVIDING MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES WITH SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL AFTERNOON
TEMPERATURES.

TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...
ANOTHER IN A SERIES OF PACIFIC DISTURBANCES WILL MOVE INTO THE
WESTERN STATES INCLUDING AZ TUESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH EARLY
WEDNESDAY. THE LACK OF MOISTURE AND DYNAMICS IN OUR FORECAST AREA
WILL PRECLUDE ANY SHOWERS. HOWEVER...UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT FROM THIS
SYSTEM DEVELOPS IN NORTHEAST AZ...AND ALONG THE EASTERN AZ BORDER
CLOSE TO OUR ZONE 24...HOWEVER AT THIS TIME WE FEEL ANY PRECIP
THREATS ARE LOW.

THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...
A STRONG HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION THIS
PERIOD. MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES WITH NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE
FORECAST.

&&

.AVIATION...
SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA INCLUDING KPHX...KIWA AND KSDL...SOUTHEAST
CALIFORNIA AND SOUTHWEST ARIZONA INCLUDING KIPL AND KBLH...

MID AND HIGH CLOUDS...BROKEN AT TIMES...WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT AREA
TERMINALS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS BEFORE SKIES GRADUALLY CLEAR
OUT FOR TONIGHT. WINDS WILL STAY ON THE LIGHT SIDE NEXT 24 HOURS
FAVORING NORMAL DIURNAL SPEEDS/DIRECTIONS ESPECIALLY OVER THE
CENTRAL AZ DESERT TERMINALS.

AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDED TAFS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...
A PAIR OF LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS WILL PASS THROUGH THE AREA MONDAY
THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK...BRINGING A SLIGHT CHANCE AT
TIMES FOR SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS TO THE HIGHER TERRAIN AREAS EAST
OF PHOENIX. THE BEST CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION WILL BE MONDAY AND
TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. HUMIDITIES WILL REMAIN ELEVATED
THROUGH TUESDAY WITH MINIMUM RH VALUES GENERALLY 20 TO 30
PERCENT...WITH A DRYING TREND TO FOLLOW THROUGH THE END OF THE
FORECAST PERIOD. BY FRIDAY EXPECT VALUES DROPPING IN TO THE TEENS
WEST OF PHOENIX...BUT REMAINING ELEVATED OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN
AREAS TO THE EAST OF PHOENIX. OTHERWISE...NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES
ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD AND WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE LIGHT
AND DIURNAL EACH DAY.

&&

.PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

AZ...NONE.

CA...NONE.

&&

$$

VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/PHOENIX

DISCUSSION...LEINS/VASQUEZ
AVIATION...KUHLMAN
FIRE WEATHER...CB





000
FXUS65 KPSR 181610
AFDPSR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PHOENIX AZ
909 AM MST SAT OCT 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A SERIES OF WEATHER DISTURBANCES MOVE INTO THE REGION THROUGH EARLY
NEXT WEEK...HOWEVER A RELATIVELY DRY AIRMASS WILL LIMIT ANY
PRECIPITATION CHANCES TO THE MOUNTAINS OF CENTRAL AND EASTERN
ARIZONA. OTHERWISE VARIABLE CLOUDINESS CAN BE EXPECTED...WITH
SLIGHTLY WARMER THAN NORMAL AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES. A STRONG HIGH
PRESSURE SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO REBUILD OVER THE REGION BY THE END OF
NEXT WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
MID MORNING SATELLITE IMAGERY REVEALS YESTERDAYS COMPACT TROUGH
OVER NORTHERN NEW MEXICO...WITH ANOTHER MUCH WEAKER TROUGH OVER
SOUTHERN NEVADA AND NORTHWEST ARIZONA. NOT EXACTLY A COPIOUS AMOUNT
OF CLOUD COVER WITH THIS UPSTREAM TROUGH AND IT APPEARS THE THICKEST
CLOUD COVER WILL BE CONFINED TO NORTHERN ARIZONA...BUT THERE ARE
SOME MID CLOUDS MOVING THROUGH THE LOWER DESERTS. GOING TO MAKE SOME
MINOR REVISIONS TO THE SKY GRIDS TO TRY AND BETTER CAPTURE THESE
CLOUDS AS THEY MOVE THROUGH...OTHERWISE THE FORECAST IS IN GOOD
SHAPE. DESPITE THE CLOUD COVER...TEMPERATURES STILL STAND A GOOD
SHOT TO MAKE IT INTO THE LOWER 90S THIS AFTERNOON. NO MAJOR CHANGES
MADE TO TEMPS.

&&

.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
TODAY AND SUNDAY...
OTHERWISE...AS THE TROF APPROACHES AZ THIS AFTERNOON ITS STILL
FORECAST SHEAR EASTWARD IN THE VERTICAL...WITH THE 300/250 MB TROF
MOVING INTO NORTHWEST AZ BY EVENING...AND THE 500 MB LOW CENTER
SINKING SOUTH TOWARD SAN DIEGO. AGAIN...THIS EASTWARD VERTICALLY
TILTED TROF IS NON-DYNAMICAL...AND ANY PRECIP CHANCES TODAY SHOULD
COME WITH DIURNAL INSTABILITY MAINLY ACROSS THE NORTHWEST QUARTER OF
AZ. FARTHER SOUTH IN OUR FORECAST AREA...SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH CENTRAL
AZ...VERY LITTLE PRECIP IS EXPECTED TODAY DUE TO A RELATIVELY DRY
BOUNDARY LAYER. CONVECTIVE TRIGGER TEMPERATURES ARE ABOUT 3 DEGREES
HIGHER THAN THE FORECAST HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR TODAY. PARTLY CLOUDY
TONIGHT.

ON SUNDAY...THE 500 MB COLD POOL WILL SPREAD EAST ACROSS THE
SOUTHEAST QUARTER OF AZ. BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE WILL BE HIGH ENOUGH
OVER EASTERN AZ...INCLUDING PORTIONS OF OUR ZONE 24...FOR A CHANCE
OF AFTERNOON INSTABILITY MOUNTAIN SHOWERS THROUGH EARLY EVENING.
DRY ELSEWHERE.

MONDAY...
A TRANSITORY HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL MOVE ACROSS AZ MONDAY
PROVIDING MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES WITH SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL AFTERNOON
TEMPERATURES.

TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...
ANOTHER IN A SERIES OF PACIFIC DISTURBANCES WILL MOVE INTO THE
WESTERN STATES INCLUDING AZ TUESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH EARLY
WEDNESDAY. THE LACK OF MOISTURE AND DYNAMICS IN OUR FORECAST AREA
WILL PRECLUDE ANY SHOWERS. HOWEVER...UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT FROM THIS
SYSTEM DEVELOPS IN NORTHEAST AZ...AND ALONG THE EASTERN AZ BORDER
CLOSE TO OUR ZONE 24...HOWEVER AT THIS TIME WE FEEL ANY PRECIP
THREATS ARE LOW.

THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...
A STRONG HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION THIS
PERIOD. MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES WITH NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE
FORECAST.

&&

.AVIATION...
SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA INCLUDING KPHX...KIWA AND KSDL...SOUTHEAST
CALIFORNIA AND SOUTHWEST ARIZONA INCLUDING KIPL AND KBLH...

MID AND HIGH CLOUDS...BROKEN AT TIMES...WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT AREA
TERMINALS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS BEFORE SKIES GRADUALLY CLEAR
OUT FOR TONIGHT. WINDS WILL STAY ON THE LIGHT SIDE NEXT 24 HOURS
FAVORING NORMAL DIURNAL SPEEDS/DIRECTIONS ESPECIALLY OVER THE
CENTRAL AZ DESERT TERMINALS.

AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDED TAFS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...
A PAIR OF LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS WILL PASS THROUGH THE AREA MONDAY
THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK...BRINGING A SLIGHT CHANCE AT
TIMES FOR SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS TO THE HIGHER TERRAIN AREAS EAST
OF PHOENIX. THE BEST CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION WILL BE MONDAY AND
TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. HUMIDITIES WILL REMAIN ELEVATED
THROUGH TUESDAY WITH MINIMUM RH VALUES GENERALLY 20 TO 30
PERCENT...WITH A DRYING TREND TO FOLLOW THROUGH THE END OF THE
FORECAST PERIOD. BY FRIDAY EXPECT VALUES DROPPING IN TO THE TEENS
WEST OF PHOENIX...BUT REMAINING ELEVATED OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN
AREAS TO THE EAST OF PHOENIX. OTHERWISE...NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES
ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD AND WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE LIGHT
AND DIURNAL EACH DAY.

&&

.PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

AZ...NONE.

CA...NONE.

&&

$$

VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/PHOENIX

DISCUSSION...LEINS/VASQUEZ
AVIATION...KUHLMAN
FIRE WEATHER...CB





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