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000
FXUS65 KFGZ 241659
AFDFGZ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Flagstaff AZ
955 AM MST TUE MAY 24 2016

.SYNOPSIS...Expect breezy to windy conditions and below normal
temperatures through the week. A weak low pressure system will bring
a slight chance of showers and thunderstorms to the area by
Wednesday and Thursday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...A deep trough continues to affect much of the western
United States this week. A low within the trough is seen on water
vapor imagery approaching SOCAL this morning. This low will bring
windy conditions to our area today and tomorrow, with slight chances
of showers developing in the cold core by Wednesday and Thursday.

This low will move away from the area by Friday, but troughing will
persist off the west coast through the weekend. Expect warming, but
breezy conditions will remain. An actual ridge may develop by the
middle of next week, just in time for June.

Current forecast looks fine, no updates this morning.

&&

.AVIATION...For the 18Z package...VFR conditions will prevail over
northern Arizona through the forecast period with south to southwest
winds 15-20 knots gusting as high as 35 kts from 16z-03z. Aviation
discussion not updated for TAF amendments.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...Gusty southwest winds will continue Tuesday and
Wednesday with near critical fire weather conditions at lower
elevations each afternoon. On Wednesday, chances for showers and
thunderstorms are forecast in northern Coconino County as a trough
approaches the fire district.

Thursday through Saturday...The passage of weak weather disturbances
will cause breezy winds each afternoon as well as chances for
showers and thunderstorms along and north of the Mogollon Rim.

&&

.FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC...Peterson
AVIATION...BAK
FIRE WEATHER...RR


For Northern Arizona weather information visit
weather.gov/flagstaff



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000
FXUS65 KTWC 241624
AFDTWC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tucson AZ
923 AM MST TUE MAY 24 2016

.SYNOPSIS...Dry conditions will prevail into early next week. Breezy
to windy conditions will occur Wednesday afternoon as a low pressure
system approaches from the west. Expect cooler temperatures Thursday
in wake of the low pressure system. A modest warming trend will then
occur this weekend, but daytime temperatures will remain at least a
few degrees below normal.

&&

.DISCUSSION...Dry and breezy conditions will continue the next few
days as a low pressure system approaches and passes through the
region. Wind speeds will be the strongest on Wednesday afternoon and
early evening with critical fire weather conditions being a concern.
A red flag warning has already been posted for far southeast Arizona
for Wednesday. Please refer to the fire weather section in this
product for more details. Otherwise, the current forecast looked on
track so no updates necessary this morning.

&&

.AVIATION...VALID THRU 25/18Z.
Clear skies through the period other than a few passing thin cirrus
clouds. Light and vrbl sfc wind becmg swly at 13-22 kts aft 24/18z
with gusts to arnd 30 kts 24/20z thru 25/01z. Wind slowly easing to
sly less than 10 kts aft 25/03z. Aviation discussion not updated for
TAF ammendments.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...A Red Flag Warning is in effect from noon to 7 PM MST
Wednesday for most of Fire Weather Zones 151 and 152 due to the
combination of strong and gusty southwest winds, low relative
humidities and a high to very high fire danger.

A slowly approaching upper level low will cause an increase in SW
winds the next couple of days. Wind speeds this afternoon are
expected to remain just below critical levels across the region,
although conditions may be briefly met across the far SE corner of
Cochise county this afternoon. Winds will be somewhat stronger
Wednesday afternoon with Red Flag conditions expected across most of
zones 151 and 152. Isolated spots in 150 and 153 may briefly reach
criteria but these conditions are not expected to be widespread
enough for a warning at this time.

Beyond Wednesday dry conditions will continue into next week with
afternoon breezes each day, however winds are expected to remain
below red flag thresholds Thursday through the weekend.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...A broad upper trough remains over the
eastern Pacific and western CONUS this morning, with a low pressure
system embedded within this longwave trough centered just west of
SanFrancisco CA.

Clear skies will continue through tonight as the low pressure system
moves southeastward toward the southern California coast. Some gusty
southwest to west winds will prevail this afternoon, similar to the
past few days.

However, stronger winds will occur Wednesday as the mid-level
gradient tightens ahead of the approaching low pressure system.
Critical fire weather conditions are forecast to occur Wednesday
afternoon and early Wednesday evening from Tucson east and south to
the New Mexico/International borders. Please refer to the Fire
Weather section in this Discussion and AWIPS product PHXRFWTWC
/WMO Header WWUS85 KTWC/ for additional information. At this time,
appears that wind speeds Wednesday afternoon will remain below wind
advisory criteria for most locales.

The upper low is progged via the 24/00Z GFS/ECMWF/CMC to be over NE
Arizona midday Thursday. Any precipitation with this system will be
well north of this forecast area. The upper low will move into
eastern Colorado Friday, but the broad upper trough will persist
over the western states into early next week. This pattern will
translate into continued dry conditions across southeast Arizona
Friday into Monday with gusty afternoon winds at times.

High temps this afternoon and Wednesday will be quite similar to
temps achieved Monday, then generally 5 degrees or so of cooling
will occur Thursday. A warming trend will then prevail Friday into
Saturday followed by no significant change in daytime temps Sunday
into Monday. High temps early next week are still projected to
remain at least a few degrees below normal.

&&

.TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
    Red Flag Warning from noon to 7 PM MST Wednesday for AZZ151-152.

&&

$$

Visit us on Facebook...Twitter...YouTube...and at weather.gov/Tucson

PREV DISCUSSION...Francis
AVIATION/FIRE WEATHER...Cerniglia



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000
FXUS65 KPSR 241520
AFDPSR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Phoenix AZ
820 AM MST TUE MAY 24 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A large region of low pressure will continue over the Western States
through the weekend. There will be day to day fluctuations in
temperatures and afternoon breeziness as the system waxes and wanes.
Overall though, temperatures will remain below normal and conditions
will remain dry.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Another clear morning across the region with very little if any
change in airmass from yesterday. Temperatures are nearly running in
parallel to yesterday, so highs again will generally fall in the
middle to upper 80s. However, some slight cooling will occur across
our western areas as the upper low over California shifts slightly
southeastward. No changes are needed to the current forecast.

&&

.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
A large area of low pressure has been in place and impacting the
weather across the western CONUS for the past few days and there will
be very little change in this basic large-scale weather pattern for
the upcoming week. Dry southwest to west flow aloft will persist day
to day, keeping high temperatures below seasonal normals every day,
with warmer deserts typically ranging from the upper 80s to mid 90s
day to day. There will be locally breezy conditions most days as well
although winds will not be strong enough to reach wind advisory
levels at any time. For the most part we can expect sunny days and
clear nights with just occasional mainly thin high clouds embedded in
the flow. GFS and ECMWF operational runs as well as ensemble guidance
has been very consistent with this large scale upper trof and
confidence in the forecast including cooler than normal high
temperatures remains high.

One feature of note: operational runs from the NAM, GFS and ECMWF
continue to call for a small closed upper low to move inland from
the far southeast California coast during the afternoon on Wednesday
and this low will quickly race northeast and across northern Arizona
overnight Wednesday night. Despite strong UVV ahead of this low,
with a large bullseye of mid level Q-convergence forecast, moisture
values will be too low to support any convection or precipitation
with this system for the most part. By the time moisture starts to
increase from the west, stronger DVV/subsidence will work in behind
the exiting low eliminating any chance for measurable rain. We did
raise POPs a few percent to around 10 percent over the higher
terrain of Joshua Tree National Park Wednesday afternoon however;
given the strong UVV and some mid level moisture creeping in, and
MLCAPE values near 200 j/kg advertised, we cannot completely rule
out a stray shower or weak storm over the high terrain at this time.
Otherwise this low will mainly give some breezy conditions to the
central deserts ahead of its passage on Wednesday afternoon, and
usher in a modest cooling trend to south central Arizona during the
day on Thursday. Expect Thursday to be the coolest day of the week
with highs falling into the middle 80s; Phoenix is forecast to fall
to 86 degrees which would be over 10 degrees below seasonal normals.

&&

.AVIATION...
South-Central Arizona including KPHX...KIWA and KSDL... and
Southeast California/Southwest Arizona including KIPL and KBLH...

A low pressure system and associated dry cold front will move
through southern California and western Arizona this afternoon. The
airmass is relatively dry, however gusty southwest winds are
expected. Through 18z Tue, south to southeast wind 8 to 10 knots.
Clear skies. From 18z Tue through 03z Wed. Clear skies. Increasing
southwest winds 15 to 20 knots.

Aviation Discussion not updated for amended TAFs.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Thursday through Monday...a series of low pressure systems will
continue to move into the western states mainly north of Arizona.
Although dry weather is forecast, the proximity of the low pressure
systems to Arizona will result in breezy to windy afternoons, 15 to
25 mph each day. Minimum relative humidities will range from 10 to
15 percent. fair overnight recovery is expected. Below normal
temperatures are also expected.

&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
Spotter activation is not expected.

&&

.PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AZ...None.
CA...None.
&&

$$

Visit us on Facebook...Twitter...and at weather.gov/phoenix

DISCUSSION...Kuhlman
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...CB
AVIATION...Vasquez
FIRE WEATHER...Vasquez




000
FXUS65 KFGZ 241149
AFDFGZ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Flagstaff AZ
449 AM MST TUE MAY 24 2016

.SYNOPSIS...Look for breezy conditions and below normal
temperatures through the coming week as a series of weather
disturbances brush northern Arizona. There is a slight chance for
thunderstorms for far northern Arizona Wednesday into Thursday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
gusty winds will continue for the next few days ahead of an
approaching shortwave trough that will impact the area wednesday
and thursday. temperatures will continue to be seasonal cool with
a chances of showers and thunderstorms on wednesday with an
increased chance on thursday. Total liquid precipitation amounts
are expected to be insignificant.

&&

.AVIATION...For the 12Z package...VFR conditions will prevail over
northern Arizona during the next 24 hours with south to southwest
winds 10-20 knots gusting as high as 35 kts from 16z-03z. Aviation
discussion not updated for TAF amendments.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...Gusty southwest winds will continue Tuesday and
Wednesday with near critical fire weather conditions at lower
elevations each afternoon. On Wednesday, chances for showers and
thunderstorms are forecast in northern Coconino County as a trough
approaches the fire district.

Thursday through Saturday...The passage of weak weather disturbances
will cause breezy winds each afternoon as well as chances for
showers and thunderstorms along and north of the Mogollon Rim.

&&

.FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC...Suk
AVIATION...RR
FIRE WEATHER...RR


For Northern Arizona weather information visit
weather.gov/flagstaff




000
FXUS65 KPSR 240921
AFDPSR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Phoenix AZ
225 AM MST TUE MAY 24 2016

.Update...Aviation and Fire Weather Discussions.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
A large region of low pressure will continue over the Western States
through the weekend. There will be day to day fluctuations in
temperatures and afternoon breeziness as the system waxes and wanes.
Overall though, temperatures will remain below normal and conditions
will remain dry.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Early this morning, dry southwest flow aloft was present across far
southeast California as well as Arizona, as seen in the recent 00z
plot data and the regional soundings. PWAT values for Tucson were
below 0.40 inches and surface dewpoints over the lower central
deserts were mostly in the 20s at 2 am. IR imagery early this
morning depicted generally clear skies area-wide.

A large area of low pressure has been in place and impacting the
weather across the western CONUS for the past few days and there
will be very little change in this basic large-scale weather pattern
for the upcoming week. Dry southwest to west flow aloft will persist
day to day, keeping high temperatures below seasonal normals every
day, with warmer deserts typically ranging from the upper 80s to mid
90s day to day. There will be locally breezy conditions most days as
well although winds will not be strong enough to reach wind advisory
levels at any time. For the most part we can expect sunny days and
clear nights with just occasional mainly thin high clouds embedded
in the flow. GFS and ECMWF operational runs as well as ensemble
guidance has been very consistent with this large scale upper trof
and confidence in the forecast including cooler than normal high
temperatures remains high.

One feature of note: operational runs from the NAM, GFS and ECMWF
continue to call for a small closed upper low to move inland from
the far southeast California coast during the afternoon on Wednesday
and this low will quickly race northeast and across northern Arizona
overnight Wednesday night. Despite strong UVV ahead of this low,
with a large bullseye of mid level Q-convergence forecast, moisture
values will be too low to support any convection or precipitation
with this system for the most part. By the time moisture starts to
increase from the west, stronger DVV/subsidence will work in behind
the exiting low eliminating any chance for measurable rain. We did
raise POPs a few percent to around 10 percent over the higher
terrain of Joshua Tree National Park Wednesday afternoon however;
given the strong UVV and some mid level moisture creeping in, and
MLCAPE values near 200 j/kg advertised, we cannot completely rule
out a stray shower or weak storm over the high terrain at this time.
Otherwise this low will mainly give some breezy conditions to the
central deserts ahead of its passage on Wednesday afternoon, and
usher in a modest cooling trend to south central Arizona during the
day on Thursday. Expect Thursday to be the coolest day of the week
with highs falling into the middle 80s; Phoenix is forecast to fall
to 86 degrees which would be over 10 degrees below seasonal normals.

&&

.AVIATION...
South-Central Arizona including KPHX...KIWA and KSDL... and
Southeast California/Southwest Arizona including KIPL and KBLH...

A low pressure system and associated dry cold front will move
through southern California and western Arizona this afternoon. The
airmass is relatively dry, however gusty southwest winds are
expected. Through 18z Tue, south to southeast wind 8 to 10 knots.
Clear skies. From 18z Tue through 03z Wed. Clear skies. Increasing
southwest winds 15 to 20 knots.

Aviation Discussion not updated for amended TAFs.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Thursday through Monday...a series of low pressure systems will
continue to move into the western states mainly north of Arizona.
Although dry weather is forecast, the proximity of the low pressure
systems to Arizona will result in breezy to windy afternoons, 15 to
25 mph each day. Minimum relative humidities will range from 10 to
15 percent. fair overnight recovery is expected. Below normal
temperatures are also expected.

&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
Spotter activation is not expected.

&&

.PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AZ...None.
CA...None.
&&

$$

Visit us on Facebook...Twitter...and at weather.gov/phoenix

DISCUSSION...CB
AVIATION...Vasquez
FIRE WEATHER...Vasquez




000
FXUS65 KPSR 240347
AFDPSR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Phoenix AZ
847 PM MST MON MAY 23 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A large region of low pressure will continue over the Western States
through the weekend. There will be day to day fluctuations in
temperatures and afternoon breeziness as the system waxes and wanes.
Overall though, temperatures will remain below normal and conditions
will remain dry.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Skies remain clear across the desert southwest this evening.
Southwesterly flow predominates ahead of a mid-level trough moving
through central CA. While temperatures are slightly warmer than they
were this time yesterday, they also remain below average due to the
persistent longwave trough across the western CONUS. Minor
adjustments were made to the short-term temperatures and dewpoints
this evening. Otherwise, the forecast remains on track.

&&

.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
Southwesterly dry flow continues across the Desert Southwest with a
large scale upper level trough entrenched across the Western United
States. The main upper level low circulation within the large scale
trough is currently just off the central California coast and is
forecast to eventually swing through the Desert Southwest sometime
Wednesday. In the meantime, heights aloft will remain below
climatological normals and thus provide below normal temperatures for
the region. Highs today and Tuesday will generally fall between 85-90
degrees over the deserts while falling a degree or so on Wednesday
as the low circulation passes through the region.

The passage of this upper low will still bring dry conditions for
our area with no precipitation in the forecast as PWATS remain below
a half an inch. Despite the cold core of the low moving overhead
across the central deserts, instability is marginal with little or no
MLCAPE advertised for southeastern CA or southern AZ. The only
potential impact will be breezy to windy daytime conditions on
Wednesday with some potential blowing dust and elevated fire danger
concerns. Wind gusts Wednesday afternoon will likely exceed 30 mph in
some spots, especially over the higher terrain east of Phoenix.

For Thursday into the weekend, the large scale trough will rebuild
across the Western United States with the main upper low center
situated over portions of the Pacific northwest. Arizona will be on
the far southern/southeastern flank of the trough and under
continued dry southwesterly flow aloft. High temperatures will stay
just below seasonal normals through the period while a slight warming
trend brings highs back into the middle 90s over the lower deserts
under generally sunny skies.

&&

.AVIATION...
South-Central Arizona including KPHX...KIWA and KSDL... and
Southeast California/Southwest Arizona including KIPL and KBLH...

Phoenix-area variable winds will eventually settle into SW-W headings
through the evening. Southeasterly drainage winds will develop back
into the terminals overnight. Elevated SW-W breezes will develop into
KBLH and KIPL, with gusts possible of 20kts. Another strong sundowner
event coupled with strong ridgetop winds will allow for strong west
winds for much of the evening for KIPL. Did not include BLDU in the
TAF, but cannot rule out some localized or vicinity dust around the
airfield. Clear skies to persist for the TAF period.

Aviation Discussion not updated for amended TAFs.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Wednesday through Sunday...a series of low pressure systems will
continue to move into the western states mainly north of Arizona
this period.  Although dry weather is forecast, the proximity of the
low pressure systems to Arizona will result in breezy to windy
afternoon/early evening southwest winds.  Wednesday is forecast to
be the windiest day with general 20 to 30 mph winds. On Thursday
through Sunday afternoon southwest breezes will range from 10 to 20
mph. Afternoon temperatures this period will remain below normal.
Minimum relative humidities will generally range from 12 to 15
percent. Fair recovery is expected at night.

&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
Spotter activation is not expected.

&&

.PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AZ...None.
CA...None.
&&

$$

Visit us on Facebook...Twitter...and at weather.gov/phoenix

DISCUSSION...Hirsch
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...Kuhlman/CB
AVIATION...Nolte
FIRE WEATHER...Vasquez




000
FXUS65 KFGZ 231149
AFDFGZ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Flagstaff AZ
347 AM MST MON MAY 23 2016

.SYNOPSIS...Look for breezy late mornings and afternoons with
below normal temperatures through the coming week as a series of
weather disturbances brush northern Arizona.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Cool and breezy conditions are expected through the bulk of the
work week as southwest flow aloft streams over the area due to a
large scale low pressure system off the California Coast
dominates the weather pattern in the near term. Temperatures will
remain 5 to 10 degrees below seasonal values, with limited
potential for moisture through the first half of the work week.

By Wednesday the low pressure trough should eject some energy
over the area and could produce some showers and thunderstorms
starting wednesday afternoon and continuing through Thursday.
While the current model consensus agrees on this solution in
general terms, the lack of previous model runs supporting this
conclusion is limiting confidence that this will continue to be
the forecasted track the shortwave across the area. Should subsequent
model runs show this solution, confidence will increase and drive
probability of precipitation upwards.

&&

.AVIATION...For the 12Z package...VFR conditions will prevail over
northern Arizona during the next 24 hours. South to southwest winds
of 10-20 knots gusting to 30 knots are expected from around 17z to
around 02z. Aviation discussion not updated for TAF amendments.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...Breezy and dry conditions will continue on Monday
and Tuesday as pressure gradients favoring southwesterly surface
winds remain in place. Near critical fire weather conditions at
lower elevations each afternoon.

Wednesday through Friday...Locally breezy and mainly dry. Winds
trending lighter for Thursday and Friday. The passage of a weak
weather disturbance will bring with it a slight chance of
thunderstorms.

&&

.FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC...Suk
AVIATION...RR


For Northern Arizona weather information visit
weather.gov/flagstaff




000
FXUS65 KPSR 231010
AFDPSR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Phoenix AZ
310 AM MST MON MAY 23 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A large region of low pressure will continue over the Western states
through the weekend. There will be day to day fluctuations in
temperatures and afternoon breeziness as the system waxes and wanes.
Overall though, temperatures will remain below normal and conditions
will remain dry.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Recently, the weather pattern across the desert southwest has been
dominated by a large scale low pressure trough keeping temperatures
below seasonal normals and creating breezy to windy conditions
during the afternoon hours. Through the rest of the week, there will
be little change in this pattern as the western CONUS will continue
to be dominated by a large upper trof and will see daily high
temperatures staying below normal levels as well as breezy
conditions off and on each day during the afternoon and early
evening hours. At 2 am, dry southwest flow aloft was present across
the area and IR imagery showed clear skies area-wide. Surface
dewpoints were on the low side and mostly in the 20s over the lower
deserts and pwat values were below one half inch.

Over the next couple of days, dry southwest flow aloft will persist
across the area as another large upper trof develops along the
California coast. Generally sunny days, clear nights, and breezy
afternoons will be on tap today and Tuesday and high temperatures
will change little with the warmer deserts mostly ranging from the
upper 80s to low 90s. Operational runs of the GFS and ECMWF as well
as GEFS guidance advertise a closed upper low to form along the far
southeast CA coast by Wednesday morning, and the low then moves
inland Wed afternoon, finally trekking to the northeast and through
northern Arizona overnight Wednesday night. The passage of this
system should be dry for our area with no precipitation in the
forecast. Despite the cold core of the low moving overhead across
the central deserts, instability is marginal with little or no
MLCAPE advertised for sern CA or southern AZ. Moisture remains
rather limited through Wednesday evening and when the PWAT values
start to climb from the west later Wednesday night into Thursday we
will be behind the upper low and under a much more subsident
northwesterly flow regime. POPs with the passage of the low will stay
in the single digits and this is supported by the latest guidance
from both the ESRL Situational Awareness table and the NAEFS POPs.
On Wednesday it will become quite breezy especially over south
central Arizona; this will likely be the breeziest day of the week
although winds should remain below wind advisory levels. A cooling
trend can be expected with this passing system, with the south
central deserts, including the greater Phoenix area, falling into
the mid to upper 80s on Thursday.

For Friday into the weekend, upper troffing will persist across the
western CONUS with the main upper low center well to the northwest
of Arizona and situated over portions of the Pacific northwest.
Arizona will be on the far southern/southeastern flank of the low
and under continued dry southwest flow aloft. High temperatures will
stay below seasonal normals each day although the warmer lower
deserts will likely climb into the low or even the middle 90s under
generally sunny skies.

&&

.AVIATION...
South-Central Arizona including KPHX...KIWA and KSDL...
Typical diurnal wind patterns will prevail through Monday. Westerly
winds will continue to subside this evening before a shift to
easterly downslope flow between 06z and 10z. Westerly flow will
redevelop Monday afternoon, but will likely remain below 12 kt.

Southeast California/Southwest Arizona including KIPL and KBLH...
Westerly winds will persist at KIPL, generally around 10 kt but with
occasional fluctuations through Monday evening. At KBLH, winds will
generally be light and variable overnight and Monday evening, before
increasing out of the south around 12 kt during the afternoon.

Aviation Discussion not updated for amended TAFs.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Tuesday through Saturday...
Fire weather concerns throughout the period will be minimal.
Below normal temperatures and dry conditions can be anticipated each
day. Minimum humidity values will be between 10 to 15 percent with
good overnight recoveries. In addition, winds will range between 5
to 15 mph with stronger afternoon breezes.

&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
Spotter activation is not expected.

&&

.PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AZ...None.
CA...None.
&&

$$

Visit us on Facebook...Twitter...and at weather.gov/phoenix

DISCUSSION...CB
AVIATION...Hirsch
FIRE WEATHER...Hernandez




000
FXUS65 KFGZ 230426
AFDFGZ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Flagstaff AZ
928 PM MST SUN MAY 22 2016

.SYNOPSIS...Look for breezy to windy late mornings and afternoons
with below normal temperatures through the coming week as a series
of dry weather disturbances brush northern Arizona.

&&

.DISCUSSION...Winds have decreased across much of northern Arizona
this evening. 900 PM MST temperatures are several degrees cooler
than last night at this time. Sent out an update to the zones for
less wind. Otherwise...forecast is on track.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION 328 PM MST...
Breezy to occasionally windy winds will be the main weather impact
over the next several days. Maximum temps will run on the order
of about 5 to 10 degrees below daily normals as well, under
predominantly southwesterly flow aloft. A disturbance from
Wednesday into Thursday may kick off a few showers and
thunderstorms, but the majority of the work week is anticipated to
remain dry. Forecast temps are expected to rebound to near normal
by next weekend.

&&

.AVIATION...For the 06Z package...VFR conditions will prevail over
northern Arizona during the next 24 hours. South to southwest winds
of 10-20 knots gusting to 30 knots are expected from around 17z
to around 02z.   Aviation discussion not updated for TAF amendments.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...Breezy and dry conditions will continue on Monday
and Tuesday as pressure gradients favoring southwesterly surface
winds remain in place. Near critical fire weather conditions at
lower elevations each afternoon.

Wednesday through Friday...Locally breezy and mainly dry. Winds
trending lighter for Thursday and Friday. The passage of a weak
weather disturbance will bring with it a slight chance of
thunderstorms.

&&

.FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC...KD
AVIATION...McCollum
FIRE WEATHER...McCollum

For Northern Arizona weather information visit
weather.gov/flagstaff




000
FXUS65 KPSR 230409
AFDPSR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Phoenix AZ
909 PM MST SUN MAY 22 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A large region of low pressure will continue over the Western states
through next weekend. There will be day to day fluctuations in
temperatures and afternoon breeziness as the system waxes and wanes.
Overall though, temperatures will remain below normal and conditions
will remain dry.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Cooler than normal temperatures were observed again this afternoon
associated with a broad area of low pressure across the western
CONUS. Breezy conditions were also prevalent, though latest HRRR
indicates that winds will subside overnight. Temperatures are
running a few degrees higher than anticipated across the forecast
area this evening and minor adjustments were made to the Min
temperatures and short-term hourly temperatures. Otherwise, the
forecast remains on track.

&&

.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
Rest of today through Thursday... Afternoon temperatures are running
a few degrees cooler than yesterday afternoon over south- central AZ
with less change over southwest AZ and even a bit of warming over
southeast CA. This is roughly 10 degrees below normal. Winds are
lighter than yesterday especially over southeast CA. Looking at the
large scale flow pattern, there is a split flow at multiple points
within the Westerlies. At high latitudes there is Rex pattern of
sorts at high latitudes with upper lows being centered over far
northeast Canada and the Bering Sea and ridging in between (even
extending far north of Alaska). Within the undercutting flow, there
is a series of ridges and troughs over the northeast Pacific and
North America. One of those troughs is over the western states and
within it are multiple vort maxes/lobes. The models are in good
agreement that the trough will wobble and morph as these vort maxes
move through and an East Coast low exits. However, troughing will
remain over the West. Thus, temps remain below normal. In the Tuesday
through Thursday time frame, the southern end of a reconfigured
trough moves through. This will lead to breezy to locally windy
conditions (most noticeably on Tuesday) and a small dip in
temperatures Wednesday and Thursday. However, not seeing enough
moisture for a precip threat over our forecast area.

Friday through Sunday...
Heading into the weekend, some measure of western troughing will
persist though the magnitude/depth of the height anomalies are
somewhat uncertain. Regardless, there is no ensemble member
indicating any amount of ridging through the Southwest, so a
continuation of slightly below normal temperatures looks like a very
good bet.

&&

.AVIATION...
South-Central Arizona including KPHX...KIWA and KSDL...
Typical diurnal wind patterns will prevail through Monday. Westerly
winds will continue to subside this evening before a shift to
easterly downslope flow between 06z and 10z. Westerly flow will
redevelop Monday afternoon, but will likely remain below 12 kt.

Southeast California/Southwest Arizona including KIPL and KBLH...
Westerly winds will persist at KIPL, generally around 10 kt but with
occasional fluctuations through Monday evening. At KBLH, winds will
generally be light and variable overnight and Monday evening, before
increasing out of the south around 12 kt during the afternoon.

Aviation Discussion not updated for amended TAFs.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Tuesday through Saturday...
Fire weather concerns throughout the period will be minimal.
Below normal temperatures and dry conditions can be anticipated each
day. Minimum humidity values will be between 10 to 15 percent with
good overnight recoveries. In addition, winds will range between 5
to 15 mph with stronger afternoon breezes.

&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
Spotter activation is not expected.

&&

.PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AZ...None.
CA...None.
&&

$$

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DISCUSSION...HIRSCH
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...AJ/MO
AVIATION...Hirsch
FIRE WEATHER...Hernandez




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