Home > Products > State Listing > Arizona Data
Latest:
 AFDFGZ |  AFDPSR |  AFDTWC |
  [top]

000
FXUS65 KFGZ 242238
AFDFGZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ
338 PM MST THU APR 24 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
EXPECT FAIR WEATHER TODAY AND TONIGHT. ON FRIDAY...WINDY CONDITIONS
RETURN AS A STRONG LATE SEASON STORM SYSTEM APPROACHES THE STATE.
THE BULK OF THE STORM WILL MOVE THROUGH NORTHERN ARIZONA ON SATURDAY
WITH STRONG WINDS AND WIDESPREAD RAIN AND SNOW. EXPECT CLEARING
FROM WEST TO EAST EARLY ON SUNDAY WITH FAIR AND WARMER WEATHER
THROUGH AT LEAST NEXT WEDNESDAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
FAIR AND WARM WEATHER IS AFFECTING THE NORTHLAND THIS AFTERNOON AS
A FLAT RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE MOVES ACROSS THE REGION. A BROAD
UPPER LEVEL LOW CAN BE SEEN MOVING INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST THIS
AFTERNOON AND THIS WILL BE THE NEXT WEATHER MAKER ACROSS NORTHERN
ARIZONA. MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT THIS TROUGH WILL DROP
SOUTHWARD THROUGH CA ON FRIDAY AND THEN HEAD EAST ACROSS NORTHERN
AZ ON SATURDAY.

THE FIRST IMPACTS FROM THIS STORM WILL BE ON FRIDAY WHEN GUSTY
SOUTHWEST WINDS DEVELOP AS THE TROUGH APPROACHES. THE STRONGEST
WINDS ARE EXPECTED FROM THE WESTERN MOGOLLON RIM NORTH TO THE UT
BORDER WHERE A WIND ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT WITH WIND GUSTS REACHING 40
TO 45 MPH. SOME AREAS OF BLOWING DUST MAY DEVELOP ACROSS
NORTHEASTERN ARIZONA. ADDITIONALLY...DRY CONDITIONS WITH LOW
HUMIDITY WILL COMBINE WITH THE GUSTY WINDS TO PRODUCE CRITICAL
FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ACROSS NORTHEAST AZ AND A RED FLAG WARNING
IS IN EFFECT.

THE BULK OF THE PRECIPITATION WITH THIS EVENT WILL OCCUR WITH A
STRONG COLD FRONT PASSAGE ON SATURDAY. STRONG DYNAMIC LIFT WILL
COMBINE WITH A MODERATE PACIFIC MOISTURE TAP TO PRODUCE WIDESPREAD
RAIN AND HIGH ELEVATION SNOWFALL FOR A PERIOD SURROUNDING THE
FRONTAL PASSAGE. THE FRONT SHOULD MOVE INTO WESTERN AZ BY SUNRISE
SATURDAY...CENTRAL AZ BY 11 AM MST FRIDAY...AND WILL CLEAR THE NM
BORDER BY 6 PM MST. TOTAL PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS LOOK TO BE IN THE
0.25 TO 0.50 INCH RANGE WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS. WEAK
INSTABILITY MAY LEAD TO A FEW THUNDERSTORMS AS WELL...AND WITH A
STRONG VERTICAL SHEAR PROFILE A SEVERE STORM CANNOT BE RULED OUT. SNOW
LEVELS WILL FALL RAPIDLY ALONG AND BEHIND THE FRONT. THE AREAS
MOST LIKELY TO BE AFFECTED BY ACCUMULATING SNOWFALL WILL BE THE
MOGOLLON RIM...GRAND CANYON AND KAIBAB PLATEAU WHERE 2 TO 5 INCHES
ARE POSSIBLE ABOVE 6000 FEET. THE COLD AIR BOTTOMS OUT OVER
YAVAPAI COUNTY WHERE ELEVATIONS DOWN TO 5500 FEET COULD SEE SOME
SNOW MIXING IN WITH RAIN. GIVEN THE FACT THAT SNOW BEGINS BEFORE
DAYTIME HEATING...WE`RE CONFIDENT IN ACCUMULATING SNOW FOR THE
ABOVE MENTIONED AREAS BUT ARE LESS CONFIDENT ACROSS THE HIGHER
ELEVATIONS OF EASTERN AZ. DAYTIME TEMPERATURES SHOULD RISE ENOUGH
DURING THE DAY SATURDAY FOR SOME MELTING TO OCCUR.

THIS IS A QUICK MOVING SYSTEM WITH SHOWERS DECREASING SATURDAY
EVENING AND COMING TO AN END OVERNIGHT. A DRIER MODERATE NORTHWEST
FLOW WILL DEVELOP THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH TEMPERATURES
GRADUALLY RISING SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY. ANOTHER WEAK TROUGH MAY
SAG SOUTH INTO THE STATE MID TO LATE NEXT WEEK POTENTIALLY KEEPING
TEMPERATURES SLIGHTLY COOLER.

&&

.AVIATION...
FOR THE 00Z PACKAGE...VFR CONDITIONS UNDER OCCASIONAL
UPPER-LEVEL CLOUDINESS ARE EXPECTED FOR THE 24 HOUR TAF PERIOD. AFT
16-18Z...WINDS BCMG SW20-30G40KTS. AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED
FOR AMENDMENTS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
FRIDAY...AN APPROACHING PACIFIC LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
WILL RESULT IN STRONG WINDS AND LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY WITH PORTIONS
OF NORTHEAST ARIZONA REACHING CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER THRESHOLDS. A
RED FLAG WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR NORTHEASTERN ARIZONA FOR FRIDAY.

SATURDAY...A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AND COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS
ARIZONA ON SATURDAY BRINGING WIDESPREAD RAIN...MOUNTAIN SNOW...AND
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS.

BREEZY NORTHERLY WINDS AND COOLER TEMPERATURES CAN BE EXPECTED ON
SUNDAY. MUCH WARMER TEMPERATURES CAN BE EXPECTED ON MONDAY AND
TUESDAY AS A RIDGE DEVELOPS OVER THE WEST.

&&

.FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

RED FLAG WARNING FROM NOON TO 8 PM MST FRIDAY FOR AZZ105-
109>114-139-140.

WIND ADVISORY FROM NOON TO 9 PM MST FRIDAY FOR AZZ004>007-
009>015-039-040.

&&

$$

PUBLIC.........MCS
AVIATION.......DB
FIRE WEATHER...DB

FOR NORTHERN ARIZONA WEATHER INFORMATION VISIT
WEATHER.GOV/FLAGSTAFF





  [top]

000
FXUS65 KPSR 242228
AFDPSR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PHOENIX AZ
330 PM MST THU APR 24 2014


.SYNOPSIS...
AN APPROACHING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL LEAD TO INCREASING HIGH
CLOUDS FRIDAY AND BREEZY TO WINDY CONDITIONS IN THE AFTERNOON. THE
WINDS...AND POSSIBLY BLOWING DUST...WILL CONTINUE FRIDAY NIGHT AND
SATURDAY AS THE COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE REGION. MUCH COLDER AIR
WILL BE USHERED IN BEHIND THE FRONT WITH HIGHS SATURDAY IN THE 70S
ON THE LOWER DESERTS. THE SYSTEM WILL ALSO BE STRONG ENOUGH FOR A
CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS...MAINLY OVER
SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA. PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL TREND DOWNWARD
FROM WEST TO EAST SATURDAY AFTERNOON. DRY WEATHER...WITH A SLOW
WARMING TREND WILL DEVELOP SUNDAY THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
REST OF TODAY AND FRIDAY...
LIGHT WINDS HAVE PREVAILED TODAY AND EARLY AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES
ARE RUNNING SOMEWHAT WARMER THAN AT THE SAME TIME YESTERDAY. AN
APPROACHING PACIFIC SYSTEM HAS ALREADY BEGUN PUSHING INTO THE
PACIFIC NORTHWEST. AS THE SYSTEM GETS CLOSER TO OUR AREA...BREEZY TO
WINDY CONDITIONS WILL DEVELOP FRIDAY AFTERNOON. STRONGEST WINDS WILL
BE IN OUR WESTERN AREAS. THE FIRE WEATHER WATCH FOR THE LOWER
COLORADO RIVER VALLEY HAS BEEN CONVERTED TO A WARNING. TEMPS WILL
STILL BE WARM WITH LITTLE CHANGE FROM THURSDAY HIGHS.

FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...
THE COLD FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA FRIDAY NIGHT
AND ARIZONA SATURDAY WHICH WILL KEEP BREEZY/WINDY CONDITIONS GOING.
WITH HIGHER HUMIDITIES...FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE. IN
ADDITION TO FRONTAL LIFT...STRONG DYNAMICAL FORCING EVIDENT IN THE
DIV Q PARAMETER ALONG WITH UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE WILL LEAD TO
PRECIPITATION CHANCES ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA WITH THE BEST CHANCES
OVER SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA...ESPECIALLY THE HIGHER TERRAIN.
CONVECTION POTENTIAL FOR OUR AREA LOOKS LIMITED WITH VERY MEAGER
MODEL CAPE AND AT LEAST AS MUCH CIN. BETTER INSTABILITY WILL BE JUST
NORTH OF OUR FORECAST AREA CLOSER TO THE COLD POOL ALOFT. BUT GIVEN
THE STRENGTH OF THE SYSTEM...HELD ON TO THE SLIGHT CHANCE WORDING
WITH RESPECT TO THUNDER FOR NORTHERN PORTIONS OF OUR FORECAST
AREA...A LOT BETTER CHANCES FOR NON-THUNDERSTORM RAIN. IF DEEPER
CONVECTIVE CLOUDS MANAGE TO FORM...STRONG VERTICAL WIND SHEAR COULD
MAKE THEM EVEN MORE POTENT. POPS TREND DOWN FROM WEST TO EAST
SATURDAY AFTERNOON WITH LINGERING SLIGHT CHANCES OVER ZONE 24
SATURDAY NIGHT. THE COLD FRONT WILL USHER IN MUCH COLDER
TEMPERATURES WITH HIGHS ON THE LOW DESERTS SATURDAY IN THE LOW 70S.
BREEZY OR EVEN WINDY CONDITIONS WILL BE IN PLACE FRIDAY NIGHT
THROUGH SATURDAY. ANTICIPATE STRONGEST PUSH OF WINDS RIGHT WITH
FRONTAL PASSAGE...FLIRTING WITH ADVISORY CRITERIA IN MANY PLACES.
WITH THE WINDS COMES THE POTENTIAL FOR BLOWING DUST...ESPECIALLY IN
THE DUST PRONE LOCATIONS OF PINAL COUNTY.

SUNDAY AND MONDAY...
DRY NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WITH NEARLY CLOUDLESS SKIES...LIGHTER
WIND...AND SLOWLY WARMING AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED THIS
PERIOD.

TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...
DRY WEATHER WITH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST. THE ONLY
CAVEAT WILL BE GUSTY NORTH WINDS OVER THE FORECAST AREA...ESPECIALLY
DOWN THE COLORADO RIVER VALLEY TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...
SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA INCLUDING KPHX...KIWA...AND KSDL...
NO WEATHER RELATED AVIATION CONCERNS THROUGH LATE FRIDAY MORNING AS
LIGHT DIURNALLY DRIVEN WINDS ARE EXPECTED AT ALL SITES. ASIDE FROM A
FEW HIGH CLOUDS...SKIES WILL BE MOSTLY CLEAR THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY.

SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA/SOUTHWEST ARIZONA INCLUDING KIPL AND KBLH...
NO AVIATION CONCERNS FOR THE MAJORITY OF THE TAF PERIOD...BUT WINDS
WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE OUT OF THE SSW ON FRIDAY IN ADVANCE OF AN
APPROACHING LOW. EXPECT SPEEDS IN THE 15G25KT RANGE JUST AFTER THE
END OF THE TAF PERIOD WITH EVEN STRONGER VALUES TOWARD 00Z SATURDAY.
CLOUDS WILL ALSO BE ON THE INCREASE BUT SHOULD REMAIN AOA 25KFT
THROUGH FRIDAY AFTERNOON.

AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDED TAFS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...
CONDITIONS WILL QUIET DOWN ON SUNDAY ALTHOUGH THERE COULD STILL BE
SOME BREEZINESS EAST OF PHOENIX SUNDAY AFTERNOON. LIGHT WINDS ARE
THEN EXPECTED THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK ALONG WITH INCREASING
TEMPERATURES AND DECREASING HUMIDITIES. OVERNIGHT RECOVERIES WILL BE
FAIR. GIVEN THE LIGHT WINDS...CRITICAL THRESHOLDS SHOULD NOT BE
REALIZED NEXT WEEK.

&&

.PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

AZ...RED FLAG WARNING FROM NOON TO 8 PM MST FRIDAY AZZ020-025.

CA...RED FLAG WARNING FROM NOON TO 8 PM PDT FRIDAY CAZ031.

$$

VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/PHOENIX

DISCUSSION...AJ/VASQUEZ
AVIATION...LEINS
FIRE WEATHER...LEINS








000
FXUS65 KPSR 242228
AFDPSR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PHOENIX AZ
330 PM MST THU APR 24 2014


.SYNOPSIS...
AN APPROACHING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL LEAD TO INCREASING HIGH
CLOUDS FRIDAY AND BREEZY TO WINDY CONDITIONS IN THE AFTERNOON. THE
WINDS...AND POSSIBLY BLOWING DUST...WILL CONTINUE FRIDAY NIGHT AND
SATURDAY AS THE COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE REGION. MUCH COLDER AIR
WILL BE USHERED IN BEHIND THE FRONT WITH HIGHS SATURDAY IN THE 70S
ON THE LOWER DESERTS. THE SYSTEM WILL ALSO BE STRONG ENOUGH FOR A
CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS...MAINLY OVER
SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA. PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL TREND DOWNWARD
FROM WEST TO EAST SATURDAY AFTERNOON. DRY WEATHER...WITH A SLOW
WARMING TREND WILL DEVELOP SUNDAY THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
REST OF TODAY AND FRIDAY...
LIGHT WINDS HAVE PREVAILED TODAY AND EARLY AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES
ARE RUNNING SOMEWHAT WARMER THAN AT THE SAME TIME YESTERDAY. AN
APPROACHING PACIFIC SYSTEM HAS ALREADY BEGUN PUSHING INTO THE
PACIFIC NORTHWEST. AS THE SYSTEM GETS CLOSER TO OUR AREA...BREEZY TO
WINDY CONDITIONS WILL DEVELOP FRIDAY AFTERNOON. STRONGEST WINDS WILL
BE IN OUR WESTERN AREAS. THE FIRE WEATHER WATCH FOR THE LOWER
COLORADO RIVER VALLEY HAS BEEN CONVERTED TO A WARNING. TEMPS WILL
STILL BE WARM WITH LITTLE CHANGE FROM THURSDAY HIGHS.

FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...
THE COLD FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA FRIDAY NIGHT
AND ARIZONA SATURDAY WHICH WILL KEEP BREEZY/WINDY CONDITIONS GOING.
WITH HIGHER HUMIDITIES...FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE. IN
ADDITION TO FRONTAL LIFT...STRONG DYNAMICAL FORCING EVIDENT IN THE
DIV Q PARAMETER ALONG WITH UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE WILL LEAD TO
PRECIPITATION CHANCES ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA WITH THE BEST CHANCES
OVER SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA...ESPECIALLY THE HIGHER TERRAIN.
CONVECTION POTENTIAL FOR OUR AREA LOOKS LIMITED WITH VERY MEAGER
MODEL CAPE AND AT LEAST AS MUCH CIN. BETTER INSTABILITY WILL BE JUST
NORTH OF OUR FORECAST AREA CLOSER TO THE COLD POOL ALOFT. BUT GIVEN
THE STRENGTH OF THE SYSTEM...HELD ON TO THE SLIGHT CHANCE WORDING
WITH RESPECT TO THUNDER FOR NORTHERN PORTIONS OF OUR FORECAST
AREA...A LOT BETTER CHANCES FOR NON-THUNDERSTORM RAIN. IF DEEPER
CONVECTIVE CLOUDS MANAGE TO FORM...STRONG VERTICAL WIND SHEAR COULD
MAKE THEM EVEN MORE POTENT. POPS TREND DOWN FROM WEST TO EAST
SATURDAY AFTERNOON WITH LINGERING SLIGHT CHANCES OVER ZONE 24
SATURDAY NIGHT. THE COLD FRONT WILL USHER IN MUCH COLDER
TEMPERATURES WITH HIGHS ON THE LOW DESERTS SATURDAY IN THE LOW 70S.
BREEZY OR EVEN WINDY CONDITIONS WILL BE IN PLACE FRIDAY NIGHT
THROUGH SATURDAY. ANTICIPATE STRONGEST PUSH OF WINDS RIGHT WITH
FRONTAL PASSAGE...FLIRTING WITH ADVISORY CRITERIA IN MANY PLACES.
WITH THE WINDS COMES THE POTENTIAL FOR BLOWING DUST...ESPECIALLY IN
THE DUST PRONE LOCATIONS OF PINAL COUNTY.

SUNDAY AND MONDAY...
DRY NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WITH NEARLY CLOUDLESS SKIES...LIGHTER
WIND...AND SLOWLY WARMING AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED THIS
PERIOD.

TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...
DRY WEATHER WITH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST. THE ONLY
CAVEAT WILL BE GUSTY NORTH WINDS OVER THE FORECAST AREA...ESPECIALLY
DOWN THE COLORADO RIVER VALLEY TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...
SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA INCLUDING KPHX...KIWA...AND KSDL...
NO WEATHER RELATED AVIATION CONCERNS THROUGH LATE FRIDAY MORNING AS
LIGHT DIURNALLY DRIVEN WINDS ARE EXPECTED AT ALL SITES. ASIDE FROM A
FEW HIGH CLOUDS...SKIES WILL BE MOSTLY CLEAR THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY.

SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA/SOUTHWEST ARIZONA INCLUDING KIPL AND KBLH...
NO AVIATION CONCERNS FOR THE MAJORITY OF THE TAF PERIOD...BUT WINDS
WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE OUT OF THE SSW ON FRIDAY IN ADVANCE OF AN
APPROACHING LOW. EXPECT SPEEDS IN THE 15G25KT RANGE JUST AFTER THE
END OF THE TAF PERIOD WITH EVEN STRONGER VALUES TOWARD 00Z SATURDAY.
CLOUDS WILL ALSO BE ON THE INCREASE BUT SHOULD REMAIN AOA 25KFT
THROUGH FRIDAY AFTERNOON.

AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDED TAFS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...
CONDITIONS WILL QUIET DOWN ON SUNDAY ALTHOUGH THERE COULD STILL BE
SOME BREEZINESS EAST OF PHOENIX SUNDAY AFTERNOON. LIGHT WINDS ARE
THEN EXPECTED THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK ALONG WITH INCREASING
TEMPERATURES AND DECREASING HUMIDITIES. OVERNIGHT RECOVERIES WILL BE
FAIR. GIVEN THE LIGHT WINDS...CRITICAL THRESHOLDS SHOULD NOT BE
REALIZED NEXT WEEK.

&&

.PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

AZ...RED FLAG WARNING FROM NOON TO 8 PM MST FRIDAY AZZ020-025.

CA...RED FLAG WARNING FROM NOON TO 8 PM PDT FRIDAY CAZ031.

$$

VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/PHOENIX

DISCUSSION...AJ/VASQUEZ
AVIATION...LEINS
FIRE WEATHER...LEINS






  [top]

000
FXUS65 KTWC 242144
AFDTWC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ
245 PM MST THU APR 24 2014

.SYNOPSIS...A STRONG STORM SYSTEM WILL MOVE ACROSS THE STATE
SATURDAY. GUSTY WINDS WILL BEGIN TO PICK UP ACROSS THE AREA FRIDAY
AFTERNOON WITH AREAS OF BLOWING DUST POSSIBLE. THE WIND WILL BECOME
STRONGER SATURDAY AS THE SYSTEM PASSES AND WILL ALSO BRING A THREAT
OF SHOWERS...THUNDERSTORMS AND HIGH ELEVATION SNOWS TO PORTIONS OF
THE AREA. DRY AND WARMER WEATHER IS ON TAP FOR NEXT WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...MODELS REMAIN IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE
SIGNIFICANT STORM SYSTEM THAT WILL AFFECT THE REGION FRIDAY INTO THE
WEEKEND.  SEVERAL ASPECTS OF THIS SYSTEM THAT ARE RATHER
INTERESTING.  FIRST IS THE MOISTURE WITH THE SYSTEM WHICH HAS A TAP
INTO SOME DECENT WATER VAPOR OFF THE PACIFIC.  FORECAST PRECIPITABLE
WATER VALUES (WATER VAPOR THROUGH A DEEP LAYER IN THE ATMOSPHERE)
WILL PEAK ABOUT 2 STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE NORMAL JUST IN ADVANCE
OF THE SYSTEM.  THIS AMOUNT OF MOISTURE ALONG WITH THE EXPECTED
DYNAMICS ARE ENOUGH TO JUSTIFY A THREAT OF SHOWERS FOR DESERT/VALLEY
LOCATIONS AND GREATER THREAT OVER THE MOUNTAINS SATURDAY INTO
SATURDAY EVENING.  ALTHOUGH INSTABILITY IS NOT ALL THAT GREAT...THE
DYNAMICS WITH THIS SYSTEM SHOULD BE ENOUGH THAT A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS IS POSSIBLE MAINLY ACROSS NORTHERN AREAS.  THE
PRECIPITATION THREAT WILL QUICKLY DIMINISH EARLY SATURDAY EVENING
FOR ALL AREAS OUTSIDE OF THE WHITE MOUNTAINS.

HOWEVER...THE MAIN IMPACT PRECIPITATION WISE WILL BE OVER THE WHITE
MOUNTAINS WHERE THE HIGHEST PEAKS COULD SEE A COUPLE OF INCHES OR SO
OF SNOW MIXED WITH A FAIR AMOUNT OF RAIN.  I RAISED POPS THIS AREA
FOR SATURDAY AFTERNOON.  WITH THE RATHER COOL CONDITIONS THAT WILL
ACCOMPANY THIS SYSTEM...SNOW LEVELS WILL BE UNCHARACTERISTICALLY LOW
FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR...DROPPING DOWN TO AROUND 6500 FT NEAR THE END
OF THE PRECIPITATION SOMETIME SATURDAY EVENING.

HOWEVER...THE PRIMARY CONCERN WITH THIS STORM CONTINUES TO BE THE
WINDS THAT WILL BE GENERATED FRIDAY AND SATURDAY WHICH WILL RESULT
IN FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS BOTH DAYS. (SEE FIRE WEATHER SECTION BELOW
FOR MORE DETAILS).

WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO PICK UP FRIDAY AFTERNOON WELL IN ADVANCE OF
THE STORM WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR AREAS OF BLOWING DUST.  WINDS WILL
EASE SOME DURING THE EVENING ACROSS LOWER ELEVATIONS...HOWEVER IT
WILL REMAIN WINDY ACROSS THE RIDGES AND MOUNTAIN TOPS.  FOR
SATURDAY...THE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BE EVEN STRONGER ACROSS MOST OF
THE AREA.  AS A RESULT...A WIND ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED FROM THE
TUCSON AREA EASTWARD.  THIS IS A RATHER STRONG SYSTEM...EVEN FOR
APRIL...WITH UPPER LEVEL WINDS EXCEEDING THE 99TH PERCENTILE AND
DEPENDING ON CLOUD COVER THE SURFACE WINDS SHOULD AT LEAST EXCEED
THE 90TH PERCENTILE RANGE OVER PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA.

BY SUNDAY THE SYSTEM WILL BE WELL TO THE EAST WITH A DECENT NW
GRADIENT REMAINING ACROSS THE REGION FOR BREEZY CONDITIONS
ESPECIALLY THE GILA VALLEY AND ALONG THE NEW MEXICO BORDER.  IT WILL
BE A DRY DAY WITH COOL TEMPERATURES CONTINUING...ROUGHLY 8-10
DEGREES COOLER THAN NORMAL.  HIGH PRESSURE IS THEN EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP ALONG THE WEST COAST FOR WARMING TEMPERATURES EARLY IN THE
WEEK...BACK UP TO NORMAL LEVELS.

BEYOND TUESDAY...THE LONG RANGE OPERATIONAL MODELS HAVE SIGNIFICANT
DIFFERENCES IN HOW THEY HANDLE A SYSTEM SLIDING SOUTH ON THE BACK
SIDE OF A DEEP LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS.  AT THIS
POINT IN TIME THEY ARE BOTH DRY WITH THE POSSIBLE EXCEPTION OF THE
WHITE MOUNTAINS WITH VARYING DEGREES OF WIND.  FOR NOW HAVE LEFT THE
EXTENDED FORECAST ALONE UNTIL GREATER AGREEMENT IN THE VARIOUS
SOLUTIONS BEGINS TO DEVELOP.  CERNIGLIA

&&

.AVIATION...VALID THRU 26/00Z. WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WITH SOME HIGH
LEVEL CIRRUS CLOUDS PASSING BY AT TIMES...WITH THICKENING HIGH
CLOUDS DURING THE DAY FRIDAY. SOUTHWEST SURFACE WINDS 13-18 KTS WITH
OCCASIONAL GUSTS TO 25 MPH THIS AFTERNOON THRU 25/02Z...THEN DIURNAL
TERRAIN DRIVEN WINDS LESS THAN 12 KTS OVERNIGHT. SOUTHWEST WINDS
WILL THEN PICK UP BY THE MID-MORNING HOURS FRIDAY AND RANGE BETWEEN
17-22 KTS WITH GUSTS TO 35 MPH. THE STRONGEST WINDS WILL BE ACROSS
SANTA CRUZ AND COCHISE COUNTIES.

THE AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR TAF AMENDMENTS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...A PACIFIC STORM SYSTEM MOVING INTO CALIFORNIA FRIDAY
WILL RESULT IN BREEZY TO LOCALLY WINDY CONDITIONS ACROSS SOUTHEAST
ARIZONA...ESPECIALLY SANTA CRUZ AND COCHISE COUNTIES. THESE WINDS
COMBINED WITH THE PREVAILING DRY AIRMASS/LOW HUMIDITIES SHOULD
RESULT IN SOME SPOTS MEETING AND EXCEEDING RED FLAG CRITERIA...
ESPECIALLY ACROSS EASTERN SANTA CRUZ AND SOUTHERN COCHISE COUNTIES.
THEREFORE...A RED FLAG WARNING IS IN EFFECT FROM 2 PM TO 7 PM MST
FRIDAY FOR AREAS ACROSS SOUTHERN FIRE ZONE 152 AND SOUTHEASTERN FIRE
ZONE 151.

THIS STORM SYSTEM WILL THEN MOVE ACROSS ARIZONA SATURDAY RESULTING
IN WINDY CONDITIONS ACROSS THE MAJORITY OF SOUTHEAST ARIZONA. THIS
SYSTEM WILL IMPORT DEEPER MOISTURE...RESULTING IN SOME VALLEY RAIN
AND MOUNTAIN SNOW SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. ALTHOUGH THE
INCREASED MOISTURE AND CLOUD COVER SHOULD HELP KEEP RED FLAG
CONDITIONS AT BAY FOR MOST AREA...MOISTURE WILL BE SLOW TO REACH
LOCATIONS ACROSS EASTERN COCHISE...SOUTHEAST GRAHAM AND SOUTHERN
GREENLEE COUNTIES. THEREFORE...A RED FLAG WARNING IS IN EFFECT FROM
11 AM TO 7 PM MST SATURDAY FOR THE EASTERN HALF OF FIRE ZONE 152.

&&

.TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...RED FLAG WARNING FROM FRIDAY
AFTERNOON THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING FOR AZZ151-152.

RED FLAG WARNING FROM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING
FOR AZZ152.

&&

$$

VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...YOUTUBE...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/TUCSON













000
FXUS65 KPSR 242018 AAA
AFDPSR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PHOENIX AZ
118 PM MST THU APR 24 2014

.UPDATE...UPDATED AVIATION AND FIRE WEATHER DISCUSSIONS...

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
WARMER TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TODAY AND FRIDAY. HOWEVER
CONSIDERABLE HIGH CLOUDS AND BREEZY CONDITIONS FRIDAY...WILL SIGNAL
THE APPROACH OF A STRONG COLD FRONT FOR SATURDAY MORNING. THE COLD
FRONT SATURDAY WILL PRODUCE VERY WINDY CONDITIONS ACROSS THE
REGION...ALONG WITH AREAS OF BLOWING DUST AND SAND. A CHANCE OF
SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY A THUNDERSTORM WILL DEVELOP MAINLY OVER
PORTIONS OF SOUTH CENTRAL ARIZONA NEAR PHOENIX. MUCH COOLER
TEMPERATURES ARE ALSO EXPECTED SATURDAY. DRY WEATHER...WITH A SLOW
WARMING TREND WILL DEVELOP SUNDAY THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS SHORT WAVE RIDGE PASSING OVER OUR FORECAST
AREA TODAY FOR LIGHTER WINDS AND WARMER TEMPERATURES TODAY.
UPSTREAM...A PACIFIC SYSTEM HAS ALREADY BEGUN PUSHING INTO THE
PACIFIC NORTHWEST. AS THE SYSTEM GETS CLOSER TO OUR AREA...BREEZY TO
WINDY CONDITIONS WILL DEVELOP FRIDAY AFTERNOON. STRONGEST WINDS WILL
BE IN OUR WESTERN AREAS. THUS THE FIRE WEATHER WATCH. THE COLD FRONT
WILL PUSH THROUGH SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA AND ARIZONA FRIDAY NIGHT AND
SATURDAY MAINTAINING BREEZY/WINDY CONDITIONS. CURRENT POPS COVER THE
WINDOW OF OPPORTUNITY FAIRLY WELL BUT SOME FURTHER ADJUSTMENTS MAY
NEED TO BE MADE AS THE LATEST GFS IS STRONGER WITH THE QG FORCING.
MUCH COLDER TEMPS SATURDAY STILL LOOKS GOOD. MORE LATER.

&&

.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION ISSUED 300 AM...
NOTE: A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL PRODUCE HIGH WINDS IN SOUTHEAST CA
LATE FRIDAY NIGHT/SATURDAY MORNING...AND VERY WINDY CONDITIONS
ELSEWHERE IN SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH CENTRAL AZ SATURDAY MORNING.

TODAY AND FRIDAY...
A SHORTWAVE RIDGE TODAY WILL PRODUCE NEARLY CLOUDLESS SKIES AND
SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES...I.E. LOWER 90S ON THE
DESERTS.  ON FRIDAY...CONSIDERABLE HIGH CLOUDS...SLIGHTLY WARMER
TEMPERATURES...AND AFTERNOON BREEZES WILL DEVELOP. HIGH CLOUDS AND
BREEZES WILL SIGNAL THE APPROACH OF A STRONG PACIFIC TROF/COLD FRONT
FOR SATURDAY.

SATURDAY...
MODELS CONTINUE TO MOVE A POTENT SPRING STORM INTO ARIZONA SATURDAY.
WE PREFER THE GFS SOLUTION FOR SEVERAL REASONS. ONE...THE WAVE
PATTERN OVER THE PACIFIC IS PROGRESSIVE. TWO...A STRONG SPLIT FLOW
ALOFT DEVELOPS JUST OFF THE WEST COAST LIMITING AN OVERLY DEEP
DIGGING TROF. THREE...THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN U.S. IS FREE FROM ANY
BLOCKING SYSTEMS DOWNSTREAM.

THE MAGNITUDE OF THE GFS 12 HR 500 MB HEIGHT FALLS...NEARLY 200
METERS OVER JOSHUA TREE N.P. ZONE 30 AT 12Z SAT...AND ANOTHER 160
METERS NEAR PRESCOTT JUST BEFORE 18Z INDICATE SIGNIFICANT MASS FIELD
CHANGES.THEREFORE...THE GREATEST IMPACT OVER OUR FORECAST AREA WILL
BE WIND. GUSTS BETWEEN 35 AND 50 MPH ARE LIKELY IN SOUTHEAST CA LATE
FRIDAY NIGHT/EARLY SATURDAY MORNING WITH THE COLD FRONT. GUSTY WINDS
IN THE 30 TO 45 MPH RANGE WILL SPREAD TOWARD PHOENIX BY LATE
SATURDAY MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON. AREAS OF BLOWING DUST AND SAND ARE
EXPECTED.

STRONG VERTICAL MOTION/UPPER LEVEL STORM DYNAMICS WILL MOSTLY BE
CONFINED TO AREAS SKIRTING THE FAR NORTHERN PORTIONS OF OUR
FORECAST AREA...I.E. THE NORTHERN PORTIONS OF LA PAZ...NORTHERN
MARICOPA...AND NORTHERN GILA COUNTIES. THESE AREAS COULD SEE A
THREAT OF SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORM. THE BEST CHANCE OF
SHOWERS HOWEVER WILL DEVELOP OVER SOUTHERN GILA COUNTY.

THIS IS A FAST MOVING TROF STORM MOST STORM SUPPORT FORECAST TO MOVE
INTO NORTHWEST NEW MEXICO BY EARLY SATURDAY EVENING.

SUNDAY AND MONDAY...
DRY NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WITH NEARLY CLOUDLESS SKIES...LIGHTER
WIND...AND SLOWLY WARMING AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED THIS
PERIOD.

TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...
DRY WEATHER WITH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST. THE ONLY
CAVEAT WILL BE GUSTY NORTH WINDS OVER THE FORECAST AREA...ESPECIALLY
DOWN THE COLORADO RIVER VALLEY TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...
SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA INCLUDING KPHX...KIWA...AND KSDL...
NO WEATHER RELATED AVIATION CONCERNS THROUGH LATE FRIDAY MORNING AS
LIGHT DIURNALLY DRIVEN WINDS ARE EXPECTED AT ALL SITES. ASIDE FROM A
FEW HIGH CLOUDS...SKIES WILL BE MOSTLY CLEAR THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY.

SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA/SOUTHWEST ARIZONA INCLUDING KIPL AND KBLH...
NO AVIATION CONCERNS FOR THE MAJORITY OF THE TAF PERIOD...BUT WINDS
WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE OUT OF THE SSW ON FRIDAY IN ADVANCE OF AN
APPROACHING LOW. EXPECT SPEEDS IN THE 15G25KT RANGE JUST AFTER THE
END OF THE TAF PERIOD WITH EVEN STRONGER VALUES TOWARD 00Z SATURDAY.
CLOUDS WILL ALSO BE ON THE INCREASE BUT SHOULD REMAIN AOA 25KFT
THROUGH FRIDAY AFTERNOON.

AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDED TAFS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...
CONDITIONS WILL QUIET DOWN ON SUNDAY ALTHOUGH THERE COULD STILL BE
SOME BREEZINESS EAST OF PHOENIX SUNDAY AFTERNOON. LIGHT WINDS ARE
THEN EXPECTED THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK ALONG WITH INCREASING
TEMPERATURES AND DECREASING HUMIDITIES. OVERNIGHT RECOVERIES WILL BE
FAIR. GIVEN THE LIGHT WINDS...CRITICAL THRESHOLDS SHOULD NOT BE
REALIZED NEXT WEEK.

&&

.PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

AZ...RED FLAG WARNING FROM NOON TO 8 PM MST FRIDAY AZZ020-025.

CA...RED FLAG WARNING FROM NOON TO 8 PM PDT FRIDAY CAZ031.

$$

VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/PHOENIX

DISCUSSION...AJ
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...VASQUEZ
AVIATION...LEINS
FIRE WEATHER...LEINS






000
FXUS65 KPSR 242018 AAA
AFDPSR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PHOENIX AZ
118 PM MST THU APR 24 2014

.UPDATE...UPDATED AVIATION AND FIRE WEATHER DISCUSSIONS...

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
WARMER TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TODAY AND FRIDAY. HOWEVER
CONSIDERABLE HIGH CLOUDS AND BREEZY CONDITIONS FRIDAY...WILL SIGNAL
THE APPROACH OF A STRONG COLD FRONT FOR SATURDAY MORNING. THE COLD
FRONT SATURDAY WILL PRODUCE VERY WINDY CONDITIONS ACROSS THE
REGION...ALONG WITH AREAS OF BLOWING DUST AND SAND. A CHANCE OF
SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY A THUNDERSTORM WILL DEVELOP MAINLY OVER
PORTIONS OF SOUTH CENTRAL ARIZONA NEAR PHOENIX. MUCH COOLER
TEMPERATURES ARE ALSO EXPECTED SATURDAY. DRY WEATHER...WITH A SLOW
WARMING TREND WILL DEVELOP SUNDAY THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS SHORT WAVE RIDGE PASSING OVER OUR FORECAST
AREA TODAY FOR LIGHTER WINDS AND WARMER TEMPERATURES TODAY.
UPSTREAM...A PACIFIC SYSTEM HAS ALREADY BEGUN PUSHING INTO THE
PACIFIC NORTHWEST. AS THE SYSTEM GETS CLOSER TO OUR AREA...BREEZY TO
WINDY CONDITIONS WILL DEVELOP FRIDAY AFTERNOON. STRONGEST WINDS WILL
BE IN OUR WESTERN AREAS. THUS THE FIRE WEATHER WATCH. THE COLD FRONT
WILL PUSH THROUGH SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA AND ARIZONA FRIDAY NIGHT AND
SATURDAY MAINTAINING BREEZY/WINDY CONDITIONS. CURRENT POPS COVER THE
WINDOW OF OPPORTUNITY FAIRLY WELL BUT SOME FURTHER ADJUSTMENTS MAY
NEED TO BE MADE AS THE LATEST GFS IS STRONGER WITH THE QG FORCING.
MUCH COLDER TEMPS SATURDAY STILL LOOKS GOOD. MORE LATER.

&&

.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION ISSUED 300 AM...
NOTE: A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL PRODUCE HIGH WINDS IN SOUTHEAST CA
LATE FRIDAY NIGHT/SATURDAY MORNING...AND VERY WINDY CONDITIONS
ELSEWHERE IN SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH CENTRAL AZ SATURDAY MORNING.

TODAY AND FRIDAY...
A SHORTWAVE RIDGE TODAY WILL PRODUCE NEARLY CLOUDLESS SKIES AND
SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES...I.E. LOWER 90S ON THE
DESERTS.  ON FRIDAY...CONSIDERABLE HIGH CLOUDS...SLIGHTLY WARMER
TEMPERATURES...AND AFTERNOON BREEZES WILL DEVELOP. HIGH CLOUDS AND
BREEZES WILL SIGNAL THE APPROACH OF A STRONG PACIFIC TROF/COLD FRONT
FOR SATURDAY.

SATURDAY...
MODELS CONTINUE TO MOVE A POTENT SPRING STORM INTO ARIZONA SATURDAY.
WE PREFER THE GFS SOLUTION FOR SEVERAL REASONS. ONE...THE WAVE
PATTERN OVER THE PACIFIC IS PROGRESSIVE. TWO...A STRONG SPLIT FLOW
ALOFT DEVELOPS JUST OFF THE WEST COAST LIMITING AN OVERLY DEEP
DIGGING TROF. THREE...THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN U.S. IS FREE FROM ANY
BLOCKING SYSTEMS DOWNSTREAM.

THE MAGNITUDE OF THE GFS 12 HR 500 MB HEIGHT FALLS...NEARLY 200
METERS OVER JOSHUA TREE N.P. ZONE 30 AT 12Z SAT...AND ANOTHER 160
METERS NEAR PRESCOTT JUST BEFORE 18Z INDICATE SIGNIFICANT MASS FIELD
CHANGES.THEREFORE...THE GREATEST IMPACT OVER OUR FORECAST AREA WILL
BE WIND. GUSTS BETWEEN 35 AND 50 MPH ARE LIKELY IN SOUTHEAST CA LATE
FRIDAY NIGHT/EARLY SATURDAY MORNING WITH THE COLD FRONT. GUSTY WINDS
IN THE 30 TO 45 MPH RANGE WILL SPREAD TOWARD PHOENIX BY LATE
SATURDAY MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON. AREAS OF BLOWING DUST AND SAND ARE
EXPECTED.

STRONG VERTICAL MOTION/UPPER LEVEL STORM DYNAMICS WILL MOSTLY BE
CONFINED TO AREAS SKIRTING THE FAR NORTHERN PORTIONS OF OUR
FORECAST AREA...I.E. THE NORTHERN PORTIONS OF LA PAZ...NORTHERN
MARICOPA...AND NORTHERN GILA COUNTIES. THESE AREAS COULD SEE A
THREAT OF SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORM. THE BEST CHANCE OF
SHOWERS HOWEVER WILL DEVELOP OVER SOUTHERN GILA COUNTY.

THIS IS A FAST MOVING TROF STORM MOST STORM SUPPORT FORECAST TO MOVE
INTO NORTHWEST NEW MEXICO BY EARLY SATURDAY EVENING.

SUNDAY AND MONDAY...
DRY NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WITH NEARLY CLOUDLESS SKIES...LIGHTER
WIND...AND SLOWLY WARMING AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED THIS
PERIOD.

TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...
DRY WEATHER WITH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST. THE ONLY
CAVEAT WILL BE GUSTY NORTH WINDS OVER THE FORECAST AREA...ESPECIALLY
DOWN THE COLORADO RIVER VALLEY TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...
SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA INCLUDING KPHX...KIWA...AND KSDL...
NO WEATHER RELATED AVIATION CONCERNS THROUGH LATE FRIDAY MORNING AS
LIGHT DIURNALLY DRIVEN WINDS ARE EXPECTED AT ALL SITES. ASIDE FROM A
FEW HIGH CLOUDS...SKIES WILL BE MOSTLY CLEAR THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY.

SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA/SOUTHWEST ARIZONA INCLUDING KIPL AND KBLH...
NO AVIATION CONCERNS FOR THE MAJORITY OF THE TAF PERIOD...BUT WINDS
WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE OUT OF THE SSW ON FRIDAY IN ADVANCE OF AN
APPROACHING LOW. EXPECT SPEEDS IN THE 15G25KT RANGE JUST AFTER THE
END OF THE TAF PERIOD WITH EVEN STRONGER VALUES TOWARD 00Z SATURDAY.
CLOUDS WILL ALSO BE ON THE INCREASE BUT SHOULD REMAIN AOA 25KFT
THROUGH FRIDAY AFTERNOON.

AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDED TAFS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...
CONDITIONS WILL QUIET DOWN ON SUNDAY ALTHOUGH THERE COULD STILL BE
SOME BREEZINESS EAST OF PHOENIX SUNDAY AFTERNOON. LIGHT WINDS ARE
THEN EXPECTED THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK ALONG WITH INCREASING
TEMPERATURES AND DECREASING HUMIDITIES. OVERNIGHT RECOVERIES WILL BE
FAIR. GIVEN THE LIGHT WINDS...CRITICAL THRESHOLDS SHOULD NOT BE
REALIZED NEXT WEEK.

&&

.PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

AZ...RED FLAG WARNING FROM NOON TO 8 PM MST FRIDAY AZZ020-025.

CA...RED FLAG WARNING FROM NOON TO 8 PM PDT FRIDAY CAZ031.

$$

VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/PHOENIX

DISCUSSION...AJ
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...VASQUEZ
AVIATION...LEINS
FIRE WEATHER...LEINS






000
FXUS65 KPSR 242018 AAA
AFDPSR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PHOENIX AZ
118 PM MST THU APR 24 2014

.UPDATE...UPDATED AVIATION AND FIRE WEATHER DISCUSSIONS...

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
WARMER TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TODAY AND FRIDAY. HOWEVER
CONSIDERABLE HIGH CLOUDS AND BREEZY CONDITIONS FRIDAY...WILL SIGNAL
THE APPROACH OF A STRONG COLD FRONT FOR SATURDAY MORNING. THE COLD
FRONT SATURDAY WILL PRODUCE VERY WINDY CONDITIONS ACROSS THE
REGION...ALONG WITH AREAS OF BLOWING DUST AND SAND. A CHANCE OF
SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY A THUNDERSTORM WILL DEVELOP MAINLY OVER
PORTIONS OF SOUTH CENTRAL ARIZONA NEAR PHOENIX. MUCH COOLER
TEMPERATURES ARE ALSO EXPECTED SATURDAY. DRY WEATHER...WITH A SLOW
WARMING TREND WILL DEVELOP SUNDAY THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS SHORT WAVE RIDGE PASSING OVER OUR FORECAST
AREA TODAY FOR LIGHTER WINDS AND WARMER TEMPERATURES TODAY.
UPSTREAM...A PACIFIC SYSTEM HAS ALREADY BEGUN PUSHING INTO THE
PACIFIC NORTHWEST. AS THE SYSTEM GETS CLOSER TO OUR AREA...BREEZY TO
WINDY CONDITIONS WILL DEVELOP FRIDAY AFTERNOON. STRONGEST WINDS WILL
BE IN OUR WESTERN AREAS. THUS THE FIRE WEATHER WATCH. THE COLD FRONT
WILL PUSH THROUGH SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA AND ARIZONA FRIDAY NIGHT AND
SATURDAY MAINTAINING BREEZY/WINDY CONDITIONS. CURRENT POPS COVER THE
WINDOW OF OPPORTUNITY FAIRLY WELL BUT SOME FURTHER ADJUSTMENTS MAY
NEED TO BE MADE AS THE LATEST GFS IS STRONGER WITH THE QG FORCING.
MUCH COLDER TEMPS SATURDAY STILL LOOKS GOOD. MORE LATER.

&&

.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION ISSUED 300 AM...
NOTE: A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL PRODUCE HIGH WINDS IN SOUTHEAST CA
LATE FRIDAY NIGHT/SATURDAY MORNING...AND VERY WINDY CONDITIONS
ELSEWHERE IN SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH CENTRAL AZ SATURDAY MORNING.

TODAY AND FRIDAY...
A SHORTWAVE RIDGE TODAY WILL PRODUCE NEARLY CLOUDLESS SKIES AND
SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES...I.E. LOWER 90S ON THE
DESERTS.  ON FRIDAY...CONSIDERABLE HIGH CLOUDS...SLIGHTLY WARMER
TEMPERATURES...AND AFTERNOON BREEZES WILL DEVELOP. HIGH CLOUDS AND
BREEZES WILL SIGNAL THE APPROACH OF A STRONG PACIFIC TROF/COLD FRONT
FOR SATURDAY.

SATURDAY...
MODELS CONTINUE TO MOVE A POTENT SPRING STORM INTO ARIZONA SATURDAY.
WE PREFER THE GFS SOLUTION FOR SEVERAL REASONS. ONE...THE WAVE
PATTERN OVER THE PACIFIC IS PROGRESSIVE. TWO...A STRONG SPLIT FLOW
ALOFT DEVELOPS JUST OFF THE WEST COAST LIMITING AN OVERLY DEEP
DIGGING TROF. THREE...THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN U.S. IS FREE FROM ANY
BLOCKING SYSTEMS DOWNSTREAM.

THE MAGNITUDE OF THE GFS 12 HR 500 MB HEIGHT FALLS...NEARLY 200
METERS OVER JOSHUA TREE N.P. ZONE 30 AT 12Z SAT...AND ANOTHER 160
METERS NEAR PRESCOTT JUST BEFORE 18Z INDICATE SIGNIFICANT MASS FIELD
CHANGES.THEREFORE...THE GREATEST IMPACT OVER OUR FORECAST AREA WILL
BE WIND. GUSTS BETWEEN 35 AND 50 MPH ARE LIKELY IN SOUTHEAST CA LATE
FRIDAY NIGHT/EARLY SATURDAY MORNING WITH THE COLD FRONT. GUSTY WINDS
IN THE 30 TO 45 MPH RANGE WILL SPREAD TOWARD PHOENIX BY LATE
SATURDAY MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON. AREAS OF BLOWING DUST AND SAND ARE
EXPECTED.

STRONG VERTICAL MOTION/UPPER LEVEL STORM DYNAMICS WILL MOSTLY BE
CONFINED TO AREAS SKIRTING THE FAR NORTHERN PORTIONS OF OUR
FORECAST AREA...I.E. THE NORTHERN PORTIONS OF LA PAZ...NORTHERN
MARICOPA...AND NORTHERN GILA COUNTIES. THESE AREAS COULD SEE A
THREAT OF SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORM. THE BEST CHANCE OF
SHOWERS HOWEVER WILL DEVELOP OVER SOUTHERN GILA COUNTY.

THIS IS A FAST MOVING TROF STORM MOST STORM SUPPORT FORECAST TO MOVE
INTO NORTHWEST NEW MEXICO BY EARLY SATURDAY EVENING.

SUNDAY AND MONDAY...
DRY NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WITH NEARLY CLOUDLESS SKIES...LIGHTER
WIND...AND SLOWLY WARMING AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED THIS
PERIOD.

TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...
DRY WEATHER WITH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST. THE ONLY
CAVEAT WILL BE GUSTY NORTH WINDS OVER THE FORECAST AREA...ESPECIALLY
DOWN THE COLORADO RIVER VALLEY TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...
SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA INCLUDING KPHX...KIWA...AND KSDL...
NO WEATHER RELATED AVIATION CONCERNS THROUGH LATE FRIDAY MORNING AS
LIGHT DIURNALLY DRIVEN WINDS ARE EXPECTED AT ALL SITES. ASIDE FROM A
FEW HIGH CLOUDS...SKIES WILL BE MOSTLY CLEAR THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY.

SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA/SOUTHWEST ARIZONA INCLUDING KIPL AND KBLH...
NO AVIATION CONCERNS FOR THE MAJORITY OF THE TAF PERIOD...BUT WINDS
WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE OUT OF THE SSW ON FRIDAY IN ADVANCE OF AN
APPROACHING LOW. EXPECT SPEEDS IN THE 15G25KT RANGE JUST AFTER THE
END OF THE TAF PERIOD WITH EVEN STRONGER VALUES TOWARD 00Z SATURDAY.
CLOUDS WILL ALSO BE ON THE INCREASE BUT SHOULD REMAIN AOA 25KFT
THROUGH FRIDAY AFTERNOON.

AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDED TAFS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...
CONDITIONS WILL QUIET DOWN ON SUNDAY ALTHOUGH THERE COULD STILL BE
SOME BREEZINESS EAST OF PHOENIX SUNDAY AFTERNOON. LIGHT WINDS ARE
THEN EXPECTED THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK ALONG WITH INCREASING
TEMPERATURES AND DECREASING HUMIDITIES. OVERNIGHT RECOVERIES WILL BE
FAIR. GIVEN THE LIGHT WINDS...CRITICAL THRESHOLDS SHOULD NOT BE
REALIZED NEXT WEEK.

&&

.PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

AZ...RED FLAG WARNING FROM NOON TO 8 PM MST FRIDAY AZZ020-025.

CA...RED FLAG WARNING FROM NOON TO 8 PM PDT FRIDAY CAZ031.

$$

VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/PHOENIX

DISCUSSION...AJ
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...VASQUEZ
AVIATION...LEINS
FIRE WEATHER...LEINS






000
FXUS65 KPSR 242018 AAA
AFDPSR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PHOENIX AZ
118 PM MST THU APR 24 2014

.UPDATE...UPDATED AVIATION AND FIRE WEATHER DISCUSSIONS...

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
WARMER TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TODAY AND FRIDAY. HOWEVER
CONSIDERABLE HIGH CLOUDS AND BREEZY CONDITIONS FRIDAY...WILL SIGNAL
THE APPROACH OF A STRONG COLD FRONT FOR SATURDAY MORNING. THE COLD
FRONT SATURDAY WILL PRODUCE VERY WINDY CONDITIONS ACROSS THE
REGION...ALONG WITH AREAS OF BLOWING DUST AND SAND. A CHANCE OF
SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY A THUNDERSTORM WILL DEVELOP MAINLY OVER
PORTIONS OF SOUTH CENTRAL ARIZONA NEAR PHOENIX. MUCH COOLER
TEMPERATURES ARE ALSO EXPECTED SATURDAY. DRY WEATHER...WITH A SLOW
WARMING TREND WILL DEVELOP SUNDAY THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS SHORT WAVE RIDGE PASSING OVER OUR FORECAST
AREA TODAY FOR LIGHTER WINDS AND WARMER TEMPERATURES TODAY.
UPSTREAM...A PACIFIC SYSTEM HAS ALREADY BEGUN PUSHING INTO THE
PACIFIC NORTHWEST. AS THE SYSTEM GETS CLOSER TO OUR AREA...BREEZY TO
WINDY CONDITIONS WILL DEVELOP FRIDAY AFTERNOON. STRONGEST WINDS WILL
BE IN OUR WESTERN AREAS. THUS THE FIRE WEATHER WATCH. THE COLD FRONT
WILL PUSH THROUGH SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA AND ARIZONA FRIDAY NIGHT AND
SATURDAY MAINTAINING BREEZY/WINDY CONDITIONS. CURRENT POPS COVER THE
WINDOW OF OPPORTUNITY FAIRLY WELL BUT SOME FURTHER ADJUSTMENTS MAY
NEED TO BE MADE AS THE LATEST GFS IS STRONGER WITH THE QG FORCING.
MUCH COLDER TEMPS SATURDAY STILL LOOKS GOOD. MORE LATER.

&&

.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION ISSUED 300 AM...
NOTE: A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL PRODUCE HIGH WINDS IN SOUTHEAST CA
LATE FRIDAY NIGHT/SATURDAY MORNING...AND VERY WINDY CONDITIONS
ELSEWHERE IN SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH CENTRAL AZ SATURDAY MORNING.

TODAY AND FRIDAY...
A SHORTWAVE RIDGE TODAY WILL PRODUCE NEARLY CLOUDLESS SKIES AND
SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES...I.E. LOWER 90S ON THE
DESERTS.  ON FRIDAY...CONSIDERABLE HIGH CLOUDS...SLIGHTLY WARMER
TEMPERATURES...AND AFTERNOON BREEZES WILL DEVELOP. HIGH CLOUDS AND
BREEZES WILL SIGNAL THE APPROACH OF A STRONG PACIFIC TROF/COLD FRONT
FOR SATURDAY.

SATURDAY...
MODELS CONTINUE TO MOVE A POTENT SPRING STORM INTO ARIZONA SATURDAY.
WE PREFER THE GFS SOLUTION FOR SEVERAL REASONS. ONE...THE WAVE
PATTERN OVER THE PACIFIC IS PROGRESSIVE. TWO...A STRONG SPLIT FLOW
ALOFT DEVELOPS JUST OFF THE WEST COAST LIMITING AN OVERLY DEEP
DIGGING TROF. THREE...THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN U.S. IS FREE FROM ANY
BLOCKING SYSTEMS DOWNSTREAM.

THE MAGNITUDE OF THE GFS 12 HR 500 MB HEIGHT FALLS...NEARLY 200
METERS OVER JOSHUA TREE N.P. ZONE 30 AT 12Z SAT...AND ANOTHER 160
METERS NEAR PRESCOTT JUST BEFORE 18Z INDICATE SIGNIFICANT MASS FIELD
CHANGES.THEREFORE...THE GREATEST IMPACT OVER OUR FORECAST AREA WILL
BE WIND. GUSTS BETWEEN 35 AND 50 MPH ARE LIKELY IN SOUTHEAST CA LATE
FRIDAY NIGHT/EARLY SATURDAY MORNING WITH THE COLD FRONT. GUSTY WINDS
IN THE 30 TO 45 MPH RANGE WILL SPREAD TOWARD PHOENIX BY LATE
SATURDAY MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON. AREAS OF BLOWING DUST AND SAND ARE
EXPECTED.

STRONG VERTICAL MOTION/UPPER LEVEL STORM DYNAMICS WILL MOSTLY BE
CONFINED TO AREAS SKIRTING THE FAR NORTHERN PORTIONS OF OUR
FORECAST AREA...I.E. THE NORTHERN PORTIONS OF LA PAZ...NORTHERN
MARICOPA...AND NORTHERN GILA COUNTIES. THESE AREAS COULD SEE A
THREAT OF SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORM. THE BEST CHANCE OF
SHOWERS HOWEVER WILL DEVELOP OVER SOUTHERN GILA COUNTY.

THIS IS A FAST MOVING TROF STORM MOST STORM SUPPORT FORECAST TO MOVE
INTO NORTHWEST NEW MEXICO BY EARLY SATURDAY EVENING.

SUNDAY AND MONDAY...
DRY NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WITH NEARLY CLOUDLESS SKIES...LIGHTER
WIND...AND SLOWLY WARMING AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED THIS
PERIOD.

TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...
DRY WEATHER WITH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST. THE ONLY
CAVEAT WILL BE GUSTY NORTH WINDS OVER THE FORECAST AREA...ESPECIALLY
DOWN THE COLORADO RIVER VALLEY TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...
SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA INCLUDING KPHX...KIWA...AND KSDL...
NO WEATHER RELATED AVIATION CONCERNS THROUGH LATE FRIDAY MORNING AS
LIGHT DIURNALLY DRIVEN WINDS ARE EXPECTED AT ALL SITES. ASIDE FROM A
FEW HIGH CLOUDS...SKIES WILL BE MOSTLY CLEAR THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY.

SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA/SOUTHWEST ARIZONA INCLUDING KIPL AND KBLH...
NO AVIATION CONCERNS FOR THE MAJORITY OF THE TAF PERIOD...BUT WINDS
WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE OUT OF THE SSW ON FRIDAY IN ADVANCE OF AN
APPROACHING LOW. EXPECT SPEEDS IN THE 15G25KT RANGE JUST AFTER THE
END OF THE TAF PERIOD WITH EVEN STRONGER VALUES TOWARD 00Z SATURDAY.
CLOUDS WILL ALSO BE ON THE INCREASE BUT SHOULD REMAIN AOA 25KFT
THROUGH FRIDAY AFTERNOON.

AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDED TAFS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...
CONDITIONS WILL QUIET DOWN ON SUNDAY ALTHOUGH THERE COULD STILL BE
SOME BREEZINESS EAST OF PHOENIX SUNDAY AFTERNOON. LIGHT WINDS ARE
THEN EXPECTED THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK ALONG WITH INCREASING
TEMPERATURES AND DECREASING HUMIDITIES. OVERNIGHT RECOVERIES WILL BE
FAIR. GIVEN THE LIGHT WINDS...CRITICAL THRESHOLDS SHOULD NOT BE
REALIZED NEXT WEEK.

&&

.PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

AZ...RED FLAG WARNING FROM NOON TO 8 PM MST FRIDAY AZZ020-025.

CA...RED FLAG WARNING FROM NOON TO 8 PM PDT FRIDAY CAZ031.

$$

VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/PHOENIX

DISCUSSION...AJ
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...VASQUEZ
AVIATION...LEINS
FIRE WEATHER...LEINS






000
FXUS65 KPSR 241700
AFDPSR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PHOENIX AZ
1000 AM MST THU APR 24 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
WARMER TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TODAY AND FRIDAY. HOWEVER
CONSIDERABLE HIGH CLOUDS AND BREEZY CONDITIONS FRIDAY...WILL SIGNAL
THE APPROACH OF A STRONG COLD FRONT FOR SATURDAY MORNING. THE COLD
FRONT SATURDAY WILL PRODUCE VERY WINDY CONDITIONS ACROSS THE
REGION...ALONG WITH AREAS OF BLOWING DUST AND SAND. A CHANCE OF
SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY A THUNDERSTORM WILL DEVELOP MAINLY OVER
PORTIONS OF SOUTH CENTRAL ARIZONA NEAR PHOENIX. MUCH COOLER
TEMPERATURES ARE ALSO EXPECTED SATURDAY. DRY WEATHER...WITH A SLOW
WARMING TREND WILL DEVELOP SUNDAY THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS SHORT WAVE RIDGE PASSING OVER OUR FORECAST
AREA TODAY FOR LIGHTER WINDS AND WARMER TEMPERATURES TODAY.
UPSTREAM...A PACIFIC SYSTEM HAS ALREADY BEGUN PUSHING INTO THE
PACIFIC NORTHWEST. AS THE SYSTEM GETS CLOSER TO OUR AREA...BREEZY TO
WINDY CONDITIONS WILL DEVELOP FRIDAY AFTERNOON. STRONGEST WINDS WILL
BE IN OUR WESTERN AREAS. THUS THE FIRE WEATHER WATCH. THE COLD FRONT
WILL PUSH THROUGH SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA AND ARIZONA FRIDAY NIGHT AND
SATURDAY MAINTAINING BREEZY/WINDY CONDITIONS. CURRENT POPS COVER THE
WINDOW OF OPPORTUNITY FAIRLY WELL BUT SOME FURTHER ADJUSTMENTS MAY
NEED TO BE MADE AS THE LATEST GFS IS STRONGER WITH THE QG FORCING.
MUCH COLDER TEMPS SATURDAY STILL LOOKS GOOD. MORE LATER.

&&

.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION ISSUED 300 AM...
NOTE: A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL PRODUCE HIGH WINDS IN SOUTHEAST CA
LATE FRIDAY NIGHT/SATURDAY MORNING...AND VERY WINDY CONDITIONS
ELSEWHERE IN SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH CENTRAL AZ SATURDAY MORNING.

TODAY AND FRIDAY...
A SHORTWAVE RIDGE TODAY WILL PRODUCE NEARLY CLOUDLESS SKIES AND
SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES...I.E. LOWER 90S ON THE
DESERTS.  ON FRIDAY...CONSIDERABLE HIGH CLOUDS...SLIGHTLY WARMER
TEMPERATURES...AND AFTERNOON BREEZES WILL DEVELOP. HIGH CLOUDS AND
BREEZES WILL SIGNAL THE APPROACH OF A STRONG PACIFIC TROF/COLD FRONT
FOR SATURDAY.

SATURDAY...
MODELS CONTINUE TO MOVE A POTENT SPRING STORM INTO ARIZONA SATURDAY.
WE PREFER THE GFS SOLUTION FOR SEVERAL REASONS. ONE...THE WAVE
PATTERN OVER THE PACIFIC IS PROGRESSIVE. TWO...A STRONG SPLIT FLOW
ALOFT DEVELOPS JUST OFF THE WEST COAST LIMITING AN OVERLY DEEP
DIGGING TROF. THREE...THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN U.S. IS FREE FROM ANY
BLOCKING SYSTEMS DOWNSTREAM.

THE MAGNITUDE OF THE GFS 12 HR 500 MB HEIGHT FALLS...NEARLY 200
METERS OVER JOSHUA TREE N.P. ZONE 30 AT 12Z SAT...AND ANOTHER 160
METERS NEAR PRESCOTT JUST BEFORE 18Z INDICATE SIGNIFICANT MASS FIELD
CHANGES.THEREFORE...THE GREATEST IMPACT OVER OUR FORECAST AREA WILL
BE WIND. GUSTS BETWEEN 35 AND 50 MPH ARE LIKELY IN SOUTHEAST CA LATE
FRIDAY NIGHT/EARLY SATURDAY MORNING WITH THE COLD FRONT. GUSTY WINDS
IN THE 30 TO 45 MPH RANGE WILL SPREAD TOWARD PHOENIX BY LATE
SATURDAY MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON. AREAS OF BLOWING DUST AND SAND ARE
EXPECTED.

STRONG VERTICAL MOTION/UPPER LEVEL STORM DYNAMICS WILL MOSTLY BE
CONFINED TO AREAS SKIRTING THE FAR NORTHERN PORTIONS OF OUR
FORECAST AREA...I.E. THE NORTHERN PORTIONS OF LA PAZ...NORTHERN
MARICOPA...AND NORTHERN GILA COUNTIES. THESE AREAS COULD SEE A
THREAT OF SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORM. THE BEST CHANCE OF
SHOWERS HOWEVER WILL DEVELOP OVER SOUTHERN GILA COUNTY.

THIS IS A FAST MOVING TROF STORM MOST STORM SUPPORT FORECAST TO MOVE
INTO NORTHWEST NEW MEXICO BY EARLY SATURDAY EVENING.

SUNDAY AND MONDAY...
DRY NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WITH NEARLY CLOUDLESS SKIES...LIGHTER
WIND...AND SLOWLY WARMING AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED THIS
PERIOD.

TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...
DRY WEATHER WITH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST. THE ONLY
CAVEAT WILL BE GUSTY NORTH WINDS OVER THE FORECAST AREA...ESPECIALLY
DOWN THE COLORADO RIVER VALLEY TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...
SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA INCLUDING KPHX...KIWA...AND KSDL...
TYPICAL EASTERLY DIURNAL WINDS THIS MORNING TO BECOME WESTERLY THIS
AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING...THEN REVERT BACK TO EASTERLY LATE
TONIGHT. WIND SPEEDS TO REMAIN MAINLY AOB 8 KTS THROUGH THE TAF
PERIOD. ASIDE FROM SOME HIGH CLOUDINESS FROM TIME-TO-TIME...SKIES TO
REMAIN MOSTLY CLEAR. NO AVIATION CONCERNS.

SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA/SOUTHWEST ARIZONA INCLUDING KIPL AND KBLH...
CURRENT LIGHT WINDS THIS MORNING TO BECOME SOUTHERLY TO
SOUTHWESTERLY FROM THIS AFTERNOON ONWARD INTO TONIGHT WITH SPEEDS
MAINLY IN THE 7-12 KNOT RANGE. ASIDE FROM A FEW HIGH CLOUDS SKIES
SHOULD BE CLEAR. NO AVIATION CONCERNS.

AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDED TAFS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...
RATHER STRONG...AND COLD UPPER LOW (FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR) TO
PRODUCE STRONG AND GUSTY WINDS...AND BRING MUCH COOLER TEMPERATURES
TO THE REGION ON SATURDAY. ALTHOUGH FIRE DANGER LEVELS WILL BE
ELEVATED BY THESE STRONG WINDS...INCREASING MOISTURE LEVELS ARE
EXPECTED TO KEEP FIRE DANGER LEVELS BELOW CRITICAL THRESHOLDS AT
MOST LOCATIONS. MUCH LIGHTER WINDS ARE THEN EXPECTED FROM SUNDAY
ONWARD...WITH TEMPERATURES SLOWLY RECOVERING BACK TOWARD NORMAL
VALUES. OVERNIGHT HUMIDITY RECOVERIES WILL GRADUALLY DETERIORATE AS
THE WEEK PROGRESSES.

&&

.PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

AZ...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM FRIDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING
     AZZ020-025.

CA...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM FRIDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING
     CAZ031.

$$

VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/PHOENIX

DISCUSSION...AJ
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...VASQUEZ
AVIATION....PERCHA
FIRE WEATHER...PERCHA







000
FXUS65 KPSR 241700
AFDPSR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PHOENIX AZ
1000 AM MST THU APR 24 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
WARMER TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TODAY AND FRIDAY. HOWEVER
CONSIDERABLE HIGH CLOUDS AND BREEZY CONDITIONS FRIDAY...WILL SIGNAL
THE APPROACH OF A STRONG COLD FRONT FOR SATURDAY MORNING. THE COLD
FRONT SATURDAY WILL PRODUCE VERY WINDY CONDITIONS ACROSS THE
REGION...ALONG WITH AREAS OF BLOWING DUST AND SAND. A CHANCE OF
SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY A THUNDERSTORM WILL DEVELOP MAINLY OVER
PORTIONS OF SOUTH CENTRAL ARIZONA NEAR PHOENIX. MUCH COOLER
TEMPERATURES ARE ALSO EXPECTED SATURDAY. DRY WEATHER...WITH A SLOW
WARMING TREND WILL DEVELOP SUNDAY THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS SHORT WAVE RIDGE PASSING OVER OUR FORECAST
AREA TODAY FOR LIGHTER WINDS AND WARMER TEMPERATURES TODAY.
UPSTREAM...A PACIFIC SYSTEM HAS ALREADY BEGUN PUSHING INTO THE
PACIFIC NORTHWEST. AS THE SYSTEM GETS CLOSER TO OUR AREA...BREEZY TO
WINDY CONDITIONS WILL DEVELOP FRIDAY AFTERNOON. STRONGEST WINDS WILL
BE IN OUR WESTERN AREAS. THUS THE FIRE WEATHER WATCH. THE COLD FRONT
WILL PUSH THROUGH SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA AND ARIZONA FRIDAY NIGHT AND
SATURDAY MAINTAINING BREEZY/WINDY CONDITIONS. CURRENT POPS COVER THE
WINDOW OF OPPORTUNITY FAIRLY WELL BUT SOME FURTHER ADJUSTMENTS MAY
NEED TO BE MADE AS THE LATEST GFS IS STRONGER WITH THE QG FORCING.
MUCH COLDER TEMPS SATURDAY STILL LOOKS GOOD. MORE LATER.

&&

.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION ISSUED 300 AM...
NOTE: A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL PRODUCE HIGH WINDS IN SOUTHEAST CA
LATE FRIDAY NIGHT/SATURDAY MORNING...AND VERY WINDY CONDITIONS
ELSEWHERE IN SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH CENTRAL AZ SATURDAY MORNING.

TODAY AND FRIDAY...
A SHORTWAVE RIDGE TODAY WILL PRODUCE NEARLY CLOUDLESS SKIES AND
SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES...I.E. LOWER 90S ON THE
DESERTS.  ON FRIDAY...CONSIDERABLE HIGH CLOUDS...SLIGHTLY WARMER
TEMPERATURES...AND AFTERNOON BREEZES WILL DEVELOP. HIGH CLOUDS AND
BREEZES WILL SIGNAL THE APPROACH OF A STRONG PACIFIC TROF/COLD FRONT
FOR SATURDAY.

SATURDAY...
MODELS CONTINUE TO MOVE A POTENT SPRING STORM INTO ARIZONA SATURDAY.
WE PREFER THE GFS SOLUTION FOR SEVERAL REASONS. ONE...THE WAVE
PATTERN OVER THE PACIFIC IS PROGRESSIVE. TWO...A STRONG SPLIT FLOW
ALOFT DEVELOPS JUST OFF THE WEST COAST LIMITING AN OVERLY DEEP
DIGGING TROF. THREE...THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN U.S. IS FREE FROM ANY
BLOCKING SYSTEMS DOWNSTREAM.

THE MAGNITUDE OF THE GFS 12 HR 500 MB HEIGHT FALLS...NEARLY 200
METERS OVER JOSHUA TREE N.P. ZONE 30 AT 12Z SAT...AND ANOTHER 160
METERS NEAR PRESCOTT JUST BEFORE 18Z INDICATE SIGNIFICANT MASS FIELD
CHANGES.THEREFORE...THE GREATEST IMPACT OVER OUR FORECAST AREA WILL
BE WIND. GUSTS BETWEEN 35 AND 50 MPH ARE LIKELY IN SOUTHEAST CA LATE
FRIDAY NIGHT/EARLY SATURDAY MORNING WITH THE COLD FRONT. GUSTY WINDS
IN THE 30 TO 45 MPH RANGE WILL SPREAD TOWARD PHOENIX BY LATE
SATURDAY MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON. AREAS OF BLOWING DUST AND SAND ARE
EXPECTED.

STRONG VERTICAL MOTION/UPPER LEVEL STORM DYNAMICS WILL MOSTLY BE
CONFINED TO AREAS SKIRTING THE FAR NORTHERN PORTIONS OF OUR
FORECAST AREA...I.E. THE NORTHERN PORTIONS OF LA PAZ...NORTHERN
MARICOPA...AND NORTHERN GILA COUNTIES. THESE AREAS COULD SEE A
THREAT OF SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORM. THE BEST CHANCE OF
SHOWERS HOWEVER WILL DEVELOP OVER SOUTHERN GILA COUNTY.

THIS IS A FAST MOVING TROF STORM MOST STORM SUPPORT FORECAST TO MOVE
INTO NORTHWEST NEW MEXICO BY EARLY SATURDAY EVENING.

SUNDAY AND MONDAY...
DRY NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WITH NEARLY CLOUDLESS SKIES...LIGHTER
WIND...AND SLOWLY WARMING AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED THIS
PERIOD.

TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...
DRY WEATHER WITH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST. THE ONLY
CAVEAT WILL BE GUSTY NORTH WINDS OVER THE FORECAST AREA...ESPECIALLY
DOWN THE COLORADO RIVER VALLEY TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...
SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA INCLUDING KPHX...KIWA...AND KSDL...
TYPICAL EASTERLY DIURNAL WINDS THIS MORNING TO BECOME WESTERLY THIS
AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING...THEN REVERT BACK TO EASTERLY LATE
TONIGHT. WIND SPEEDS TO REMAIN MAINLY AOB 8 KTS THROUGH THE TAF
PERIOD. ASIDE FROM SOME HIGH CLOUDINESS FROM TIME-TO-TIME...SKIES TO
REMAIN MOSTLY CLEAR. NO AVIATION CONCERNS.

SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA/SOUTHWEST ARIZONA INCLUDING KIPL AND KBLH...
CURRENT LIGHT WINDS THIS MORNING TO BECOME SOUTHERLY TO
SOUTHWESTERLY FROM THIS AFTERNOON ONWARD INTO TONIGHT WITH SPEEDS
MAINLY IN THE 7-12 KNOT RANGE. ASIDE FROM A FEW HIGH CLOUDS SKIES
SHOULD BE CLEAR. NO AVIATION CONCERNS.

AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDED TAFS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...
RATHER STRONG...AND COLD UPPER LOW (FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR) TO
PRODUCE STRONG AND GUSTY WINDS...AND BRING MUCH COOLER TEMPERATURES
TO THE REGION ON SATURDAY. ALTHOUGH FIRE DANGER LEVELS WILL BE
ELEVATED BY THESE STRONG WINDS...INCREASING MOISTURE LEVELS ARE
EXPECTED TO KEEP FIRE DANGER LEVELS BELOW CRITICAL THRESHOLDS AT
MOST LOCATIONS. MUCH LIGHTER WINDS ARE THEN EXPECTED FROM SUNDAY
ONWARD...WITH TEMPERATURES SLOWLY RECOVERING BACK TOWARD NORMAL
VALUES. OVERNIGHT HUMIDITY RECOVERIES WILL GRADUALLY DETERIORATE AS
THE WEEK PROGRESSES.

&&

.PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

AZ...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM FRIDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING
     AZZ020-025.

CA...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM FRIDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING
     CAZ031.

$$

VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/PHOENIX

DISCUSSION...AJ
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...VASQUEZ
AVIATION....PERCHA
FIRE WEATHER...PERCHA







000
FXUS65 KPSR 241700
AFDPSR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PHOENIX AZ
1000 AM MST THU APR 24 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
WARMER TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TODAY AND FRIDAY. HOWEVER
CONSIDERABLE HIGH CLOUDS AND BREEZY CONDITIONS FRIDAY...WILL SIGNAL
THE APPROACH OF A STRONG COLD FRONT FOR SATURDAY MORNING. THE COLD
FRONT SATURDAY WILL PRODUCE VERY WINDY CONDITIONS ACROSS THE
REGION...ALONG WITH AREAS OF BLOWING DUST AND SAND. A CHANCE OF
SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY A THUNDERSTORM WILL DEVELOP MAINLY OVER
PORTIONS OF SOUTH CENTRAL ARIZONA NEAR PHOENIX. MUCH COOLER
TEMPERATURES ARE ALSO EXPECTED SATURDAY. DRY WEATHER...WITH A SLOW
WARMING TREND WILL DEVELOP SUNDAY THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS SHORT WAVE RIDGE PASSING OVER OUR FORECAST
AREA TODAY FOR LIGHTER WINDS AND WARMER TEMPERATURES TODAY.
UPSTREAM...A PACIFIC SYSTEM HAS ALREADY BEGUN PUSHING INTO THE
PACIFIC NORTHWEST. AS THE SYSTEM GETS CLOSER TO OUR AREA...BREEZY TO
WINDY CONDITIONS WILL DEVELOP FRIDAY AFTERNOON. STRONGEST WINDS WILL
BE IN OUR WESTERN AREAS. THUS THE FIRE WEATHER WATCH. THE COLD FRONT
WILL PUSH THROUGH SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA AND ARIZONA FRIDAY NIGHT AND
SATURDAY MAINTAINING BREEZY/WINDY CONDITIONS. CURRENT POPS COVER THE
WINDOW OF OPPORTUNITY FAIRLY WELL BUT SOME FURTHER ADJUSTMENTS MAY
NEED TO BE MADE AS THE LATEST GFS IS STRONGER WITH THE QG FORCING.
MUCH COLDER TEMPS SATURDAY STILL LOOKS GOOD. MORE LATER.

&&

.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION ISSUED 300 AM...
NOTE: A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL PRODUCE HIGH WINDS IN SOUTHEAST CA
LATE FRIDAY NIGHT/SATURDAY MORNING...AND VERY WINDY CONDITIONS
ELSEWHERE IN SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH CENTRAL AZ SATURDAY MORNING.

TODAY AND FRIDAY...
A SHORTWAVE RIDGE TODAY WILL PRODUCE NEARLY CLOUDLESS SKIES AND
SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES...I.E. LOWER 90S ON THE
DESERTS.  ON FRIDAY...CONSIDERABLE HIGH CLOUDS...SLIGHTLY WARMER
TEMPERATURES...AND AFTERNOON BREEZES WILL DEVELOP. HIGH CLOUDS AND
BREEZES WILL SIGNAL THE APPROACH OF A STRONG PACIFIC TROF/COLD FRONT
FOR SATURDAY.

SATURDAY...
MODELS CONTINUE TO MOVE A POTENT SPRING STORM INTO ARIZONA SATURDAY.
WE PREFER THE GFS SOLUTION FOR SEVERAL REASONS. ONE...THE WAVE
PATTERN OVER THE PACIFIC IS PROGRESSIVE. TWO...A STRONG SPLIT FLOW
ALOFT DEVELOPS JUST OFF THE WEST COAST LIMITING AN OVERLY DEEP
DIGGING TROF. THREE...THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN U.S. IS FREE FROM ANY
BLOCKING SYSTEMS DOWNSTREAM.

THE MAGNITUDE OF THE GFS 12 HR 500 MB HEIGHT FALLS...NEARLY 200
METERS OVER JOSHUA TREE N.P. ZONE 30 AT 12Z SAT...AND ANOTHER 160
METERS NEAR PRESCOTT JUST BEFORE 18Z INDICATE SIGNIFICANT MASS FIELD
CHANGES.THEREFORE...THE GREATEST IMPACT OVER OUR FORECAST AREA WILL
BE WIND. GUSTS BETWEEN 35 AND 50 MPH ARE LIKELY IN SOUTHEAST CA LATE
FRIDAY NIGHT/EARLY SATURDAY MORNING WITH THE COLD FRONT. GUSTY WINDS
IN THE 30 TO 45 MPH RANGE WILL SPREAD TOWARD PHOENIX BY LATE
SATURDAY MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON. AREAS OF BLOWING DUST AND SAND ARE
EXPECTED.

STRONG VERTICAL MOTION/UPPER LEVEL STORM DYNAMICS WILL MOSTLY BE
CONFINED TO AREAS SKIRTING THE FAR NORTHERN PORTIONS OF OUR
FORECAST AREA...I.E. THE NORTHERN PORTIONS OF LA PAZ...NORTHERN
MARICOPA...AND NORTHERN GILA COUNTIES. THESE AREAS COULD SEE A
THREAT OF SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORM. THE BEST CHANCE OF
SHOWERS HOWEVER WILL DEVELOP OVER SOUTHERN GILA COUNTY.

THIS IS A FAST MOVING TROF STORM MOST STORM SUPPORT FORECAST TO MOVE
INTO NORTHWEST NEW MEXICO BY EARLY SATURDAY EVENING.

SUNDAY AND MONDAY...
DRY NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WITH NEARLY CLOUDLESS SKIES...LIGHTER
WIND...AND SLOWLY WARMING AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED THIS
PERIOD.

TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...
DRY WEATHER WITH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST. THE ONLY
CAVEAT WILL BE GUSTY NORTH WINDS OVER THE FORECAST AREA...ESPECIALLY
DOWN THE COLORADO RIVER VALLEY TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...
SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA INCLUDING KPHX...KIWA...AND KSDL...
TYPICAL EASTERLY DIURNAL WINDS THIS MORNING TO BECOME WESTERLY THIS
AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING...THEN REVERT BACK TO EASTERLY LATE
TONIGHT. WIND SPEEDS TO REMAIN MAINLY AOB 8 KTS THROUGH THE TAF
PERIOD. ASIDE FROM SOME HIGH CLOUDINESS FROM TIME-TO-TIME...SKIES TO
REMAIN MOSTLY CLEAR. NO AVIATION CONCERNS.

SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA/SOUTHWEST ARIZONA INCLUDING KIPL AND KBLH...
CURRENT LIGHT WINDS THIS MORNING TO BECOME SOUTHERLY TO
SOUTHWESTERLY FROM THIS AFTERNOON ONWARD INTO TONIGHT WITH SPEEDS
MAINLY IN THE 7-12 KNOT RANGE. ASIDE FROM A FEW HIGH CLOUDS SKIES
SHOULD BE CLEAR. NO AVIATION CONCERNS.

AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDED TAFS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...
RATHER STRONG...AND COLD UPPER LOW (FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR) TO
PRODUCE STRONG AND GUSTY WINDS...AND BRING MUCH COOLER TEMPERATURES
TO THE REGION ON SATURDAY. ALTHOUGH FIRE DANGER LEVELS WILL BE
ELEVATED BY THESE STRONG WINDS...INCREASING MOISTURE LEVELS ARE
EXPECTED TO KEEP FIRE DANGER LEVELS BELOW CRITICAL THRESHOLDS AT
MOST LOCATIONS. MUCH LIGHTER WINDS ARE THEN EXPECTED FROM SUNDAY
ONWARD...WITH TEMPERATURES SLOWLY RECOVERING BACK TOWARD NORMAL
VALUES. OVERNIGHT HUMIDITY RECOVERIES WILL GRADUALLY DETERIORATE AS
THE WEEK PROGRESSES.

&&

.PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

AZ...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM FRIDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING
     AZZ020-025.

CA...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM FRIDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING
     CAZ031.

$$

VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/PHOENIX

DISCUSSION...AJ
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...VASQUEZ
AVIATION....PERCHA
FIRE WEATHER...PERCHA







000
FXUS65 KPSR 241700
AFDPSR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PHOENIX AZ
1000 AM MST THU APR 24 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
WARMER TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TODAY AND FRIDAY. HOWEVER
CONSIDERABLE HIGH CLOUDS AND BREEZY CONDITIONS FRIDAY...WILL SIGNAL
THE APPROACH OF A STRONG COLD FRONT FOR SATURDAY MORNING. THE COLD
FRONT SATURDAY WILL PRODUCE VERY WINDY CONDITIONS ACROSS THE
REGION...ALONG WITH AREAS OF BLOWING DUST AND SAND. A CHANCE OF
SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY A THUNDERSTORM WILL DEVELOP MAINLY OVER
PORTIONS OF SOUTH CENTRAL ARIZONA NEAR PHOENIX. MUCH COOLER
TEMPERATURES ARE ALSO EXPECTED SATURDAY. DRY WEATHER...WITH A SLOW
WARMING TREND WILL DEVELOP SUNDAY THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS SHORT WAVE RIDGE PASSING OVER OUR FORECAST
AREA TODAY FOR LIGHTER WINDS AND WARMER TEMPERATURES TODAY.
UPSTREAM...A PACIFIC SYSTEM HAS ALREADY BEGUN PUSHING INTO THE
PACIFIC NORTHWEST. AS THE SYSTEM GETS CLOSER TO OUR AREA...BREEZY TO
WINDY CONDITIONS WILL DEVELOP FRIDAY AFTERNOON. STRONGEST WINDS WILL
BE IN OUR WESTERN AREAS. THUS THE FIRE WEATHER WATCH. THE COLD FRONT
WILL PUSH THROUGH SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA AND ARIZONA FRIDAY NIGHT AND
SATURDAY MAINTAINING BREEZY/WINDY CONDITIONS. CURRENT POPS COVER THE
WINDOW OF OPPORTUNITY FAIRLY WELL BUT SOME FURTHER ADJUSTMENTS MAY
NEED TO BE MADE AS THE LATEST GFS IS STRONGER WITH THE QG FORCING.
MUCH COLDER TEMPS SATURDAY STILL LOOKS GOOD. MORE LATER.

&&

.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION ISSUED 300 AM...
NOTE: A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL PRODUCE HIGH WINDS IN SOUTHEAST CA
LATE FRIDAY NIGHT/SATURDAY MORNING...AND VERY WINDY CONDITIONS
ELSEWHERE IN SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH CENTRAL AZ SATURDAY MORNING.

TODAY AND FRIDAY...
A SHORTWAVE RIDGE TODAY WILL PRODUCE NEARLY CLOUDLESS SKIES AND
SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES...I.E. LOWER 90S ON THE
DESERTS.  ON FRIDAY...CONSIDERABLE HIGH CLOUDS...SLIGHTLY WARMER
TEMPERATURES...AND AFTERNOON BREEZES WILL DEVELOP. HIGH CLOUDS AND
BREEZES WILL SIGNAL THE APPROACH OF A STRONG PACIFIC TROF/COLD FRONT
FOR SATURDAY.

SATURDAY...
MODELS CONTINUE TO MOVE A POTENT SPRING STORM INTO ARIZONA SATURDAY.
WE PREFER THE GFS SOLUTION FOR SEVERAL REASONS. ONE...THE WAVE
PATTERN OVER THE PACIFIC IS PROGRESSIVE. TWO...A STRONG SPLIT FLOW
ALOFT DEVELOPS JUST OFF THE WEST COAST LIMITING AN OVERLY DEEP
DIGGING TROF. THREE...THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN U.S. IS FREE FROM ANY
BLOCKING SYSTEMS DOWNSTREAM.

THE MAGNITUDE OF THE GFS 12 HR 500 MB HEIGHT FALLS...NEARLY 200
METERS OVER JOSHUA TREE N.P. ZONE 30 AT 12Z SAT...AND ANOTHER 160
METERS NEAR PRESCOTT JUST BEFORE 18Z INDICATE SIGNIFICANT MASS FIELD
CHANGES.THEREFORE...THE GREATEST IMPACT OVER OUR FORECAST AREA WILL
BE WIND. GUSTS BETWEEN 35 AND 50 MPH ARE LIKELY IN SOUTHEAST CA LATE
FRIDAY NIGHT/EARLY SATURDAY MORNING WITH THE COLD FRONT. GUSTY WINDS
IN THE 30 TO 45 MPH RANGE WILL SPREAD TOWARD PHOENIX BY LATE
SATURDAY MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON. AREAS OF BLOWING DUST AND SAND ARE
EXPECTED.

STRONG VERTICAL MOTION/UPPER LEVEL STORM DYNAMICS WILL MOSTLY BE
CONFINED TO AREAS SKIRTING THE FAR NORTHERN PORTIONS OF OUR
FORECAST AREA...I.E. THE NORTHERN PORTIONS OF LA PAZ...NORTHERN
MARICOPA...AND NORTHERN GILA COUNTIES. THESE AREAS COULD SEE A
THREAT OF SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORM. THE BEST CHANCE OF
SHOWERS HOWEVER WILL DEVELOP OVER SOUTHERN GILA COUNTY.

THIS IS A FAST MOVING TROF STORM MOST STORM SUPPORT FORECAST TO MOVE
INTO NORTHWEST NEW MEXICO BY EARLY SATURDAY EVENING.

SUNDAY AND MONDAY...
DRY NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WITH NEARLY CLOUDLESS SKIES...LIGHTER
WIND...AND SLOWLY WARMING AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED THIS
PERIOD.

TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...
DRY WEATHER WITH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST. THE ONLY
CAVEAT WILL BE GUSTY NORTH WINDS OVER THE FORECAST AREA...ESPECIALLY
DOWN THE COLORADO RIVER VALLEY TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...
SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA INCLUDING KPHX...KIWA...AND KSDL...
TYPICAL EASTERLY DIURNAL WINDS THIS MORNING TO BECOME WESTERLY THIS
AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING...THEN REVERT BACK TO EASTERLY LATE
TONIGHT. WIND SPEEDS TO REMAIN MAINLY AOB 8 KTS THROUGH THE TAF
PERIOD. ASIDE FROM SOME HIGH CLOUDINESS FROM TIME-TO-TIME...SKIES TO
REMAIN MOSTLY CLEAR. NO AVIATION CONCERNS.

SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA/SOUTHWEST ARIZONA INCLUDING KIPL AND KBLH...
CURRENT LIGHT WINDS THIS MORNING TO BECOME SOUTHERLY TO
SOUTHWESTERLY FROM THIS AFTERNOON ONWARD INTO TONIGHT WITH SPEEDS
MAINLY IN THE 7-12 KNOT RANGE. ASIDE FROM A FEW HIGH CLOUDS SKIES
SHOULD BE CLEAR. NO AVIATION CONCERNS.

AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDED TAFS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...
RATHER STRONG...AND COLD UPPER LOW (FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR) TO
PRODUCE STRONG AND GUSTY WINDS...AND BRING MUCH COOLER TEMPERATURES
TO THE REGION ON SATURDAY. ALTHOUGH FIRE DANGER LEVELS WILL BE
ELEVATED BY THESE STRONG WINDS...INCREASING MOISTURE LEVELS ARE
EXPECTED TO KEEP FIRE DANGER LEVELS BELOW CRITICAL THRESHOLDS AT
MOST LOCATIONS. MUCH LIGHTER WINDS ARE THEN EXPECTED FROM SUNDAY
ONWARD...WITH TEMPERATURES SLOWLY RECOVERING BACK TOWARD NORMAL
VALUES. OVERNIGHT HUMIDITY RECOVERIES WILL GRADUALLY DETERIORATE AS
THE WEEK PROGRESSES.

&&

.PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

AZ...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM FRIDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING
     AZZ020-025.

CA...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM FRIDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING
     CAZ031.

$$

VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/PHOENIX

DISCUSSION...AJ
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...VASQUEZ
AVIATION....PERCHA
FIRE WEATHER...PERCHA







000
FXUS65 KFGZ 241630
AFDFGZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ
930 AM MST THU APR 24 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
EXPECT FAIR WEATHER TODAY AND TONIGHT. ON FRIDAY...WINDY CONDITIONS
RETURN AS A STRONG LATE SEASON STORM SYSTEM APPROACHES THE STATE.
THE BULK OF THE STORM WILL MOVE THROUGH NORTHERN ARIZONA ON EARLY
SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH LATE SATURDAY EVENING WITH STRONG WINDS
AND WIDESPREAD RAIN AND SNOW...WITH SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS.
EXPECT CLEARING FROM WEST TO EAST EARLY ON SUNDAY WITH FAIR
WEATHER THROUGH AT LEAST NEXT WEDNESDAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
QUIET WEATHER IS IN STORE TODAY AS FLAT RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE
MOVES ACROSS THE REGION. EXPECT SCATTERED HIGH CLOUDS AND
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES. A LATE SEASON WINTER-LIKE STORM SYSTEM
IS STILL EXPECTED TO IMPACT NORTHERN ARIZONA LATE FRIDAY NIGHT
THROUGH SATURDAY. PLEASE SEE THE PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOR DETAILS
ON THIS UNFOLDING EVENT.

&&

.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION /415 AM MST/...
FRIDAY...WINDS WILL INCREASE ACROSS THE NORTHLAND AS A VERY COLD
LATE SEASON STORM MOVES INTO CALIFORNIA. THE CURRENT FORECASTS ARE
FOR S-SW WINDS 20-30 MPH W/ GUSTS TO 45 MPH AND THE FASTEST SPEEDS
OCCURRING ALONG AND NORTHWEST OF A LINE FROM NAVAJO NATIONAL
MONUMENT TO FLAGSTAFF LATE IN THE AFTERNOON THROUGH THE EVENING
HOURS WITH THE STRONGER WINDS EXPANDING ALONG THE MOGOLLON RIM
NORTHWARD DURING THE EVENING HOURS.

FRIDAY MIDNIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY MIDNIGHT...FORECASTS ARE IN GOOD
AGREEMENT BRINGING THE STRONG WEATHER SYSTEM AND COLD FRONT THROUGH
ARIZONA DURING THIS PERIOD. WE ARE EXPECTING A STRONG AND VERY
ACTIVE COLD FRONT...WITH A NORTH TO SOUTH ALIGNED WARM MOIST
CONVEYOR/LIFTING ACTION FLOWING IN A RELATIVE SENSE WESTWARD OVER
THE COLD FRONT (CONTAINING MOST OF THE PRECIP ACCUMULATIONS ALONG
AND JUST AHEAD OF THE FRONT) TIMING: MOVING INTO WESTERN AZ
AROUND MIDNIGHT SATURDAY MORNING...PAGE TO PAYSON LINE AROUND NOON
SATURDAY...AND REACHING THE NEW MEXICO/AZ LINE BY 6 PM MST SAT.
SNOW LEVELS ARE EXPECTED TO FALL TO 5000-6000 FEET BEHIND THE
FRONT. WHILE MID-LEVEL TEMPERATURES SUPPORT SNOW DOWN TO THIS
LEVEL ...THE MODELS SUGGEST WARMER SFC TEMPERATURES. AS PRECIP
INTENSITY PICKS UP WE EXPECT SNOW ACCUMULATION LEVEL TO FLUCTUATE
DOWNWARD TO THE LEVELS MENTIONED ABOVE...BUT WHEN THE PRECIP
INTENSITY DECREASES RAPID MELTING WILL OCCUR. THE BEST TIME FOR
ACCUMULATION WILL BE FROM MIDNIGHT SATURDAY TO AROUND NOON ON
SATURDAY ABOVE 7000 FEET WITH 2-5 INCHES POSSIBLE...HOWEVER WARM
GROUND SHOULD REDUCE ACCUMULATIONS AS BREAKS OCCUR IN THE CLOUD
COVER BEHIND THE FRONT. FALLING SNOW WILL AFFECT HIGHWAY TRAVEL
SATURDAY ABOVE 6000-6500 FEET DUE TO LOW VISIBILITIES AND
ACCUMULATIONS ON THE ROAD. CHECK FUTURE FORECASTS FOR SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS...AT THIS TIME WE EXPECT 4-10 INCHES ABOVE 8000 FEET
POSSIBLE...AND AGAIN 2-5 INCHES OF SNOW POSSIBLE ABOVE 7000 FEET
AS MENTIONED ABOVE.

AREAS SOUTH OF THE MOGOLLON RIM SHOULD SEE RAIN ACCUMULATIONS OF
.30-.65 OF AN INCH. SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE
DUE TO THE COLD TEMPERATURES ALOFT AND VERY UNSTABLE LAPSE RATES AS
THE UPPER LEVEL COLD POOL ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER LEVEL LOW MOVES
ACROSS THE AREA SATURDAY.

SATURDAY NIGHT...WRAP AROUND MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY CONTINUES
SATURDAY NIGHT BEHIND THE WEATHER SYSTEM WITH A GOOD CHANCE OF RAIN
AND SNOW SHOWERS FORECASTED ACROSS THE NORTHLAND.

SUNDAY....LOOK FOR CLEARING FROM WEST TO EAST EARLY. STRONG NORTH
NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT IS EXPECTED TO BRING GUSTY NORTH NORTHWEST
AFTERNOON WINDS ESPECIALLY IN EASTERN ARIZONA WHERE THE WINDS WILL
BE THE STRONGEST.

MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...EXPECT MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND A WARMING
TREND.

&&

.AVIATION...
FOR THE 18Z PACKAGE...VFR CONDITIONS UNDER OCCASIONAL
UPPER-LEVEL CLOUDINESS ARE EXPECTED FOR THE 24 HOUR TAF PERIOD.
LIGHT WINDS BCMG SW10-15G20-25KT FROM 18-02Z. AVIATION DISCUSSION
NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDMENTS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...TODAY...A WARM AND DRY WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL
BRING LIGHT WINDS IN THE MORNING BECOMING BREEZY IN THE AFTERNOON.

FRIDAY...AN APPROACHING PACIFIC LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL RESULT IN
STRONG WINDS AND LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY WITH PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST
ARIZONA REACHING CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER THRESHOLDS. A FIRE WEATHER
WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR FRIDAY.

SATURDAY...A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AND COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS
ARIZONA ON SATURDAY BRINGING WIDESPREAD RAIN...MOUNTAIN SNOW...AND
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS.

SUNDAY AND MONDAY....BREEZY NORTHERLY WINDS AND COOLER TEMPERATURES
CAN BE EXPECTED ON SUNDAY...WITH MUCH WARMER TEMPERATURES ON MONDAY.

&&

.FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM FRIDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING FOR
AZZ105-109>114-139-140.

&&

$$

PUBLIC.........MCS
AVIATION.......DB

FOR NORTHERN ARIZONA WEATHER INFORMATION VISIT
WEATHER.GOV/FLAGSTAFF






000
FXUS65 KTWC 241619
AFDTWC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ
920 AM MST THU APR 24 2014

.SYNOPSIS...EXPECT A WARM DAY WITH LESS WIND...THEN WINDS WILL
INCREASE FRIDAY AND BECOME STRONG AND GUSTY SATURDAY AS A STRONG
SYSTEM MOVES ACROSS THE REGION.  THERE WILL BE A CHANCE OF VALLEY
RAIN AND HIGH ELEVATION SNOW SHOWERS SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT.
DRY AND WARMER WEATHER IS ON TAP FOR NEXT WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...SOUTHEAST AZ WILL BE UNDER A LIGHT WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT
WITH A WARM AIR MASS OVER THE REGION.  THIS WILL ALLOW FOR A
RELATIVELY CALM DAY WITH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES...THE CALM BEFORE
THE STORM.

MODELS IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE SIGNIFICANT STORM SYSTEM
THAT WILL AFFECT THE REGION FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND.  SEVERAL
ASPECTS OF THIS SYSTEM THAT ARE RATHER INTERESTING.  FIRST IS THE
MOISTURE WITH THE SYSTEM WHICH HAS A TAP INTO SOME DECENT WATER
VAPOR OFF THE PACIFIC.  FORECAST PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES (WATER
VAPOR THROUGH A DEEP LAYER IN THE ATMOSPHERE) WILL PEAK ABOUT 2
STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE NORMAL JUST IN ADVANCE OF THE SYSTEM.
THIS AMOUNT OF MOISTURE ALONG WITH THE EXPECTED DYNAMICS ARE ENOUGH
TO JUSTIFY A THREAT OF SHOWERS FOR DESERT/VALLEY LOCATIONS AND
GREATER THREAT OVER THE MOUNTAINS SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY EVENING.
THE MAIN IMPACT PRECIPITATION WISE WILL BE OVER THE WHITE MOUNTAINS
WHERE THE HIGHEST PEAKS COULD SEE A COUPLE OF INCHES OR SO OF SNOW
MIXED WITH RAIN.  WITH THE RATHER COOL CONDITIONS THAT WILL
ACCOMPANY THIS SYSTEM...SNOW LEVELS WILL BE UNCHARACTERISTICALLY LOW
FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR...DROPPING DOWN TO AROUND 6500 FT NEAR THE END
OF THE PRECIPITATION SATURDAY EVENING.

HOWEVER...THE MOST IMPORTANT FEATURE OF THIS STORM WILL BE THE WINDS
THAT WILL BE GENERATED FRIDAY AND SATURDAY WHICH WILL RESULT IN FIRE
WEATHER CONCERNS BOTH DAYS. (SEE FIRE WEATHER SECTION BELOW FOR MORE
DETAILS).

WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO PICK UP FRIDAY AFTERNOON WELL IN ADVANCE OF
THE STORM WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR LOCAL AREAS OF BLOWING DUST.  WINDS
WILL EASE SOME DURING THE EVENING ACROSS LOWER ELEVATIONS...HOWEVER
IT WILL REMAIN WINDY ACROSS THE RIDGES AND MOUNTAIN TOPS.  FOR
SATURDAY...THE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BE EVEN STRONGER AND LIKELY
EXCEEDING WIND ADVISORY FOR PARTS OF THE AREA...MAINLY EAST OF
TUCSON...WHICH WE WILL ADDRESS THIS AFTERNOON.  THIS IS A RATHER
STRONG SYSTEM...EVEN FOR APRIL...WITH UPPER LEVEL WINDS EXCEEDING
THE 99TH PERCENTILE AND DEPENDING ON CLOUD COVER THE SURFACE WINDS
SHOULD AT LEAST EXCEED THE 90TH PERCENTILE RANGE OVER PORTIONS OF
THE FORECAST AREA.  CERNIGLIA

THIS SYSTEM WILL EXIT THE REGION BY EARLY SUNDAY WITH RIDGING
BEGINNING TO BUILD IN FROM THE WEST INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.  BOTH THE
GFS AND ECMWF ARE INDICATING THAT A VORT LOBE DROPPING DOWN THE BACK
SIDE OF THIS EXITING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE THROUGH THE FOUR
CORNERS AREA LATE TUESDAY AND THEN MOVE THROUGH PORTIONS OF THE
STATE IN SOME FORM OR FASHION THROUGH WEDNESDAY.  IF THIS OCCURS WE
COULD SEE A SLIGHT LOWERING OF TEMPERATURES DURING THAT TIME AND
PERHAPS A THREAT OF PRECIPITATION...MAINLY FOR THE MOUNTAINS.  FOR
NOW THE THREAT IS NOT GREAT ENOUGH...NOR IS CONFIDENCE HIGH ENOUGH
TO MENTION ANY PRECIPITATION AT THIS TIME.

HIGHS GENERALLY 3 TO 4 DEGS ABOVE NORMAL TODAY AND FRIDAY...THEN
AROUND 10 DEGS BELOW NORMAL THIS WEEKEND...THEN ABOUT 2 TO 4 DEGS
BELOW NORMAL FOR MONDAY.  THEREAFTER...HIGHS ABOUT 2 TO 3 DEGS ABOVE
NORMAL.  LOW TEMPERATURES ABOUT 3 TO 5 DEGS ABOVE NORMAL FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY MORNINGS...THEN 5 TO 10 DEGS BELOW NORMAL SUNDAY AND MONDAY
MORNINGS...BUT THE COOLEST MORNING WILL OCCUR ON SUNDAY WHEN LOWS
WILL BE NEARLY 10 DEGS BELOW NORMAL.  FOR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY LOWS
SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL.  MOLLERE

&&

.AVIATION...VALID THRU 25/18Z.  WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WITH MOSTLY
CLEAR SKIES OTHER THAN SOME CIRRUS PASSING BY AT TIMES MAINLY NORTH
OF TUCSON.  SFC WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW 12 KTS AT ALL
TERMINALS THRU 25/15Z THEN SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE TO
13-18 KTS 25/18Z.  THE AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR TAF
AMENDMENTS.  CERNIGLIA

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...GENERALLY LIGHT WINDS AND DRY CONDITIONS TODAY AHEAD
OF ANOTHER PACIFIC SYSTEM.  THIS SYSTEM WILL DIG SOUTHWARD INTO THE
REGION FRIDAY RESULTING IN A TIGHTENING OF THE PRESSURE GRADIENT.
BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON THE AREA SHOULD EXPERIENCE SOME BREEZY WIND
CONDITIONS.  THIS COMBINED WITH THE PREVAILING DRY CONDITIONS COULD
SEE A FEW LOCATIONS HIT RED FLAG CRITERIA.  A FIRE WEATHER WATCH IS
IN EFFECT FRIDAY LATE AFTERNOON TO EARLY EVENING FOR AREAS ACROSS
SOUTHERN ZONE 152 AND SOUTHEASTERN ZONE 151...WHERE WINDS WILL BE
THE STRONGEST.

THE FORECAST TRACK OF THIS SYSTEM AS IT COMES ACROSS THE AREA ON
SATURDAY IS FAVORABLE FOR MOISTURE ADVECTION INTO THE AREA.  THIS
WILL RESULT IN SOME VALLEY RAIN AND MOUNTAIN SNOW DURING THE DAY
SATURDAY.  SATURDAY WILL HAVE THE STRONGEST WINDS AS THE MAIN JET
CORE PUSHES THROUGH.  THE INCREASED MOISTURE AND CLOUD COVER SHOULD
HELP KEEP RED FLAG CONDITIONS AT BAY FOR MOST...BUT NOT ALL AREAS.
THE BEST AREA FOR RED FLAG CONDITIONS LOOKS TO BE EAST OF THE
SAFFORD TO DOUGLAS LINE...OR THE EASTERN HALF OF ZONE 152...AS
MOISTURE WILL BE A LITTLE SLOWER TO REACH THESE LOCATIONS.  A FIRE
WEATHER WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR THIS AREA...MINUS THE CHIRICAHUA
MOUNTAINS FOR SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING.  MORE DETAILS
EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON.

SUNDAY THE FLOW ALOFT SHIFTS TO MORE NORTHWESTERLY AS THE SYSTEM
EXITS AND GIVEN THE LINGERING PRESSURE GRADIENT...AREAS EAST OF
TUCSON COULD SEE SOME BREEZY NORTHWEST WINDS.  WINDS WILL BEGIN TO
TAPPER OFF MONDAY...THOUGH WEDNESDAY HAS THE POTENTIAL FOR AN
EASTERLY GRADIENT INDUCED WINDS FROM TUCSON EAST.  HUMPHREYS/MEADOWS

&&

.TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM FRIDAY
AFTERNOON THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING FOR AZZ151-152.

FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING
FOR AZZ152.

&&

$$

VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...YOUTUBE...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/TUCSON








000
FXUS65 KFGZ 241119
AFDFGZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ
415 AM MST THU APR 24 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
EXPECT FAIR WEATHER THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT. ON FRIDAY...WINDY
CONDITIONS RETURN AS A STRONG LATE SEASON STORM SYSTEM
APPROACHES THE STATE. THE BULK OF THE STORM WILL MOVE THROUGH
NORTHERN ARIZONA ON EARLY SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH LATE SATURDAY
EVENING WITH STRONG WINDS AND WIDE SPREAD RAIN AND SNOW...WITH
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS. EXPECT CLEARING FROM WEST TO EAST EARLY ON
SUNDAY WITH FAIR WEATHER THROUGH AT LEAST NEXT WEDNESDAY.
&&

.DISCUSSION...
EXPECT FAIR WEATHER THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT AS A SHORTWAVE RIDGE
CROSSES THE DESERT SOUTHWEST.

FRIDAY...WINDS WILL INCREASE ACROSS THE NORTHLAND AS A VERY COLD
LATE SEASON STORM MOVES INTO CALIFORNIA. THE CURRENT FORECASTS ARE
FOR S-SW WINDS 20-30 MPH W/ GUSTS TO 45 MPH AND THE FASTEST SPEEDS
OCCURRING ALONG AND NORTHWEST OF A LINE FROM NAVAJO NATIONAL
MONUMENT TO FLAGSTAFF LATE IN THE AFTERNOON THROUGH THE EVENING
HOURS WITH THE STRONGER WINDS EXPANDING ALONG THE MOGOLLON RIM
NORTHWARD DURING THE EVENING HOURS.

FRIDAY MIDNIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY MIDNIGHT...FORECASTS ARE IN GOOD
AGREEMENT BRINGING THE STRONG WEATHER SYSTEM AND COLD FRONT THROUGH
ARIZONA DURING THIS PERIOD. WE ARE EXPECTING A STRONG AND VERY
ACTIVE COLD FRONT...WITH A NORTH TO SOUTH ALIGNED WARM MOIST
CONVEYOR/LIFTING ACTION FLOWING IN A RELATIVE SENSE WESTWARD OVER
THE COLD FRONT (CONTAINING MOST OF THE PRECIP ACCUMULATIONS ALONG
AND JUST A HEAD OF THE FRONT) TIMING: MOVING INTO WESTERN AZ AROUND
MIDNIGHT SATURDAY MORNING...PAGE TO PAYSON LINE AROUND NOON
SATURDAY...AND REACHING THE NEW MEXICO/AZ LINE BY 6 PM SAT. SNOW
LEVELS ARE EXPECTED TO FALL TO 5000-6000 FEET BEHIND THE FRONT.
WHILE MID-LEVEL TEMPERATURES SUPPORT SNOW DOWN TO THIS LEVEL ...THE
MODELS SUGGEST WARMER SFC TEMPERATURES. AS PRECIP INTENSITY PICKS UP
WE EXPECT SNOW ACCUMULATION LEVEL TO FLUCTUATE DOWNWARD TO THE
LEVELS MENTION ABOVE...BUT WHEN THE PRECIP INTENSITY DECREASES RAPID
MELTING WILL OCCUR. THE BEST TIME FOR ACCUMULATION WILL BE FROM
MIDNIGHT SATURDAY TO AROUND NOON ON SATURDAY ABOVE 7000 FEET WITH
2-5 INCHES POSSIBLE...HOWEVER WARM GROUND SHOULD REDUCE
ACCUMULATIONS AS BREAKS OCCUR IN THE CLOUD COVER BEHIND THE FRONT.
FALLING SNOW WILL AFFECT HIGHWAY TRAVEL SATURDAY ABOVE 6000-6500
FEET DUE TO LOW VISIBILITIES AND ACCUMULATIONS ON THE ROAD. CHECK
FUTURE FORECASTS FOR SNOW ACCUMULATIONS...AT THIS TIME WE EXPECT 4-10
INCHES ABOVE 8000 FEET POSSIBLE...AND AGAIN 2-5 INCHES OF SNOW
POSSIBLE ABOVE 7000 FEET AS MENTIONED ABOVE.

AREAS SOUTH OF THE MOGOLLON RIM SHOULD SEE RAIN ACCUMULATIONS OF
.30-.65 OF AN INCH. SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE
DUE TO THE COLD TEMPERATURES ALOFT AND VERY UNSTABLE LAPSE RATES AS
THE UPPER LEVEL COLD POOL ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER LEVEL LOW MOVES
ACROSS THE AREA SATURDAY.

SATURDAY NIGHT...WRAP AROUND MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY CONTINUES
SATURDAY NIGHT BEHIND THE WEATHER SYSTEM WITH A GOOD CHANCE OF RAIN
AND SNOW SHOWERS FORECASTED ACROSS THE NORTHLAND.

SUNDAY....LOOK FOR CLEARING FROM WEST TO EAST EARLY. STRONG NORTH
NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT IS EXPECTED TO BRING GUSTY NORTH NORTHWEST
AFTERNOON WINDS ESPECIALLY IN EASTERN ARIZONA WHERE THE WINDS WILL
BE THE STRONGEST.

MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...EXPECT MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND A WARMING
TREND.
&&

.AVIATION...
FOR THE 12Z PACKAGE...VFR CONDITIONS UNDER OCCASIONAL
UPPER-LEVEL CLOUDINESS ARE EXPECTED FOR THE 24 HOUR TAF PERIOD.
LIGHT WINDS WILL SW10-15G20-25KT AFTER 18Z...DECREASING AGAIN BY
02Z. AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDMENTS.
&&

.FIRE WEATHER...TODAY...A WARM AND DRY WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL
BRING LIGHT WINDS IN THE MORNING BECOMING BREEZY IN THE AFTERNOON.

FRIDAY...AN APPROACHING PACIFIC LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL RESULT IN
STRONG WINDS AND LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY WITH PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST
ARIZONA REACHING CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER THRESHOLDS. A FIRE WEATHER
WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR FRIDAY...AND HAS BEEN EXPANDED TO
INCLUDE ZONES 111 AND 139.

SATURDAY...A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AND COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS
ARIZONA ON SATURDAY BRINGING WIDESPREAD RAIN...MOUNTAIN SNOW...AND
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS.

SUNDAY AND MONDAY....BREEZY NORTHERLY WINDS AND COOLER TEMPERATURES
CAN BE EXPECTED ON SUNDAY...WITH MUCH WARMER TEMPERATURES ON MONDAY.
&&

.FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM FRIDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING FOR
AZZ105-109>114-139-140.
&&

$$

PUBLIC.........TC
AVIATION.......MS
FIRE WEATHER...MS

FOR NORTHERN ARIZONA WEATHER INFORMATION VISIT
WEATHER.GOV/FLAGSTAFF










000
FXUS65 KPSR 241000
AFDPSR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PHOENIX AZ
300 AM MST THU APR 24 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
WARMER TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TODAY AND FRIDAY. HOWEVER
CONSIDERABLE HIGH CLOUDS AND BREEZY CONDITIONS FRIDAY...WILL SIGNAL
THE APPROACH OF A STRONG COLD FRONT FOR SATURDAY MORNING. THE COLD
FRONT SATURDAY WILL PRODUCE VERY WINDY CONDITIONS ACROSS THE
REGION...ALONG WITH AREAS OF BLOWING DUST AND SAND. A CHANCE OF
SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY A THUNDERSTORM WILL DEVELOP MAINLY OVER
PORTIONS OF SOUTH CENTRAL ARIZONA NEAR PHOENIX. MUCH COOLER
TEMPERATURES ARE ALSO EXPECTED SATURDAY. DRY WEATHER...WITH A SLOW
WARMING TREND WILL DEVELOP SUNDAY THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
NOTE: A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL PRODUCE HIGH WINDS IN SOUTHEAST CA
LATE FRIDAY NIGHT/SATURDAY MORNING...AND VERY WINDY CONDITIONS
ELSEWHERE IN SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH CENTRAL AZ SATURDAY MORNING.

TODAY AND FRIDAY...
A SHORTWAVE RIDGE TODAY WILL PRODUCE NEARLY CLOUDLESS SKIES AND
SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES...I.E. LOWER 90S ON THE
DESERTS.  ON FRIDAY...CONSIDERABLE HIGH CLOUDS...SLIGHTLY WARMER
TEMPERATURES...AND AFTERNOON BREEZES WILL DEVELOP. HIGH CLOUDS AND
BREEZES WILL SIGNAL THE APPROACH OF A STRONG PACIFIC TROF/COLD FRONT
FOR SATURDAY.

SATURDAY...
MODELS CONTINUE TO MOVE A POTENT SPRING STORM INTO ARIZONA SATURDAY.
WE PREFER THE GFS SOLUTION FOR SEVERAL REASONS. ONE...THE WAVE
PATTERN OVER THE PACIFIC IS PROGRESSIVE. TWO...A STRONG SPLIT FLOW
ALOFT DEVELOPS JUST OFF THE WEST COAST LIMITING AN OVERLY DEEP
DIGGING TROF. THREE...THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN U.S. IS FREE FROM ANY
BLOCKING SYSTEMS DOWNSTREAM.

THE MAGNITUDE OF THE GFS 12 HR 500 MB HEIGHT FALLS...NEARLY 200
METERS OVER JOSHUA TREE N.P. ZONE 30 AT 12Z SAT...AND ANOTHER 160
METERS NEAR PRESCOTT JUST BEFORE 18Z INDICATE SIGNIFICANT MASS FIELD
CHANGES.THEREFORE...THE GREATEST IMPACT OVER OUR FORECAST AREA WILL
BE WIND. GUSTS BETWEEN 35 AND 50 MPH ARE LIKELY IN SOUTHEAST CA LATE
FRIDAY NIGHT/EARLY SATURDAY MORNING WITH THE COLD FRONT. GUSTY WINDS
IN THE 30 TO 45 MPH RANGE WILL SPREAD TOWARD PHOENIX BY LATE
SATURDAY MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON. AREAS OF BLOWING DUST AND SAND ARE
EXPECTED.

STRONG VERTICAL MOTION/UPPER LEVEL STORM DYNAMICS WILL MOSTLY BE
CONFINED TO AREAS SKIRTING THE FAR NORTHERN PORTIONS OF OUR
FORECAST AREA...I.E. THE NORTHERN PORTIONS OF LA PAZ...NORTHERN
MARICOPA...AND NORTHERN GILA COUNTIES. THESE AREAS COULD SEE A
THREAT OF SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORM. THE BEST CHANCE OF
SHOWERS HOWEVER WILL DEVELOP OVER SOUTHERN GILA COUNTY.

THIS IS A FAST MOVING TROF STORM MOST STORM SUPPORT FORECAST TO MOVE
INTO NORTHWEST NEW MEXICO BY EARLY SATURDAY EVENING.

SUNDAY AND MONDAY...
DRY NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WITH NEARLY CLOUDLESS SKIES...LIGHTER
WIND...AND SLOWLY WARMING AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED THIS
PERIOD.

TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...
DRY WEATHER WITH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST. THE ONLY
CAVEAT WILL BE GUSTY NORTH WINDS OVER THE FORECAST AREA...ESPECIALLY
DOWN THE COLORADO RIVER VALLEY TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...
SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA INCLUDING KPHX...KIWA...AND KSDL...
TYPICAL EASTERLY DIURNAL WINDS THIS MORNING TO BECOME WESTERLY THIS
AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING...THEN REVERT BACK TO EASTERLY LATE
TONIGHT. WIND SPEEDS TO REMAIN MAINLY AOB 8 KTS THROUGH THE TAF
PERIOD. ASIDE FROM SOME HIGH CLOUDINESS FROM TIME-TO-TIME...SKIES TO
REMAIN MOSTLY CLEAR. NO AVIATION CONCERNS.

SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA/SOUTHWEST ARIZONA INCLUDING KIPL AND KBLH...
CURRENT LIGHT WINDS THIS MORNING TO BECOME SOUTHERLY TO
SOUTHWESTERLY FROM THIS AFTERNOON ONWARD INTO TONIGHT WITH SPEEDS
MAINLY IN THE 7-12 KNOT RANGE. ASIDE FROM A FEW HIGH CLOUDS SKIES
SHOULD BE CLEAR. NO AVIATION CONCERNS.

AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDED TAFS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...
RATHER STRONG...AND COLD UPPER LOW (FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR) TO
PRODUCE STRONG AND GUSTY WINDS...AND BRING MUCH COOLER TEMPERATURES
TO THE REGION ON SATURDAY. ALTHOUGH FIRE DANGER LEVELS WILL BE
ELEVATED BY THESE STRONG WINDS...INCREASING MOISTURE LEVELS ARE
EXPECTED TO KEEP FIRE DANGER LEVELS BELOW CRITICAL THRESHOLDS AT
MOST LOCATIONS. MUCH LIGHTER WINDS ARE THEN EXPECTED FROM SUNDAY
ONWARD...WITH TEMPERATURES SLOWLY RECOVERING BACK TOWARD NORMAL
VALUES. OVERNIGHT HUMIDITY RECOVERIES WILL GRADUALLY DETERIORATE AS
THE WEEK PROGRESSES.

&&

.PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

AZ...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM FRIDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING
     AZZ020-025.

CA...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM FRIDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING
     CAZ031.

$$

VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/PHOENIX

DISCUSSION...VASQUEZ
AVIATION....PERCHA
FIRE WEATHER...PERCHA











000
FXUS65 KPSR 241000
AFDPSR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PHOENIX AZ
300 AM MST THU APR 24 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
WARMER TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TODAY AND FRIDAY. HOWEVER
CONSIDERABLE HIGH CLOUDS AND BREEZY CONDITIONS FRIDAY...WILL SIGNAL
THE APPROACH OF A STRONG COLD FRONT FOR SATURDAY MORNING. THE COLD
FRONT SATURDAY WILL PRODUCE VERY WINDY CONDITIONS ACROSS THE
REGION...ALONG WITH AREAS OF BLOWING DUST AND SAND. A CHANCE OF
SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY A THUNDERSTORM WILL DEVELOP MAINLY OVER
PORTIONS OF SOUTH CENTRAL ARIZONA NEAR PHOENIX. MUCH COOLER
TEMPERATURES ARE ALSO EXPECTED SATURDAY. DRY WEATHER...WITH A SLOW
WARMING TREND WILL DEVELOP SUNDAY THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
NOTE: A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL PRODUCE HIGH WINDS IN SOUTHEAST CA
LATE FRIDAY NIGHT/SATURDAY MORNING...AND VERY WINDY CONDITIONS
ELSEWHERE IN SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH CENTRAL AZ SATURDAY MORNING.

TODAY AND FRIDAY...
A SHORTWAVE RIDGE TODAY WILL PRODUCE NEARLY CLOUDLESS SKIES AND
SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES...I.E. LOWER 90S ON THE
DESERTS.  ON FRIDAY...CONSIDERABLE HIGH CLOUDS...SLIGHTLY WARMER
TEMPERATURES...AND AFTERNOON BREEZES WILL DEVELOP. HIGH CLOUDS AND
BREEZES WILL SIGNAL THE APPROACH OF A STRONG PACIFIC TROF/COLD FRONT
FOR SATURDAY.

SATURDAY...
MODELS CONTINUE TO MOVE A POTENT SPRING STORM INTO ARIZONA SATURDAY.
WE PREFER THE GFS SOLUTION FOR SEVERAL REASONS. ONE...THE WAVE
PATTERN OVER THE PACIFIC IS PROGRESSIVE. TWO...A STRONG SPLIT FLOW
ALOFT DEVELOPS JUST OFF THE WEST COAST LIMITING AN OVERLY DEEP
DIGGING TROF. THREE...THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN U.S. IS FREE FROM ANY
BLOCKING SYSTEMS DOWNSTREAM.

THE MAGNITUDE OF THE GFS 12 HR 500 MB HEIGHT FALLS...NEARLY 200
METERS OVER JOSHUA TREE N.P. ZONE 30 AT 12Z SAT...AND ANOTHER 160
METERS NEAR PRESCOTT JUST BEFORE 18Z INDICATE SIGNIFICANT MASS FIELD
CHANGES.THEREFORE...THE GREATEST IMPACT OVER OUR FORECAST AREA WILL
BE WIND. GUSTS BETWEEN 35 AND 50 MPH ARE LIKELY IN SOUTHEAST CA LATE
FRIDAY NIGHT/EARLY SATURDAY MORNING WITH THE COLD FRONT. GUSTY WINDS
IN THE 30 TO 45 MPH RANGE WILL SPREAD TOWARD PHOENIX BY LATE
SATURDAY MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON. AREAS OF BLOWING DUST AND SAND ARE
EXPECTED.

STRONG VERTICAL MOTION/UPPER LEVEL STORM DYNAMICS WILL MOSTLY BE
CONFINED TO AREAS SKIRTING THE FAR NORTHERN PORTIONS OF OUR
FORECAST AREA...I.E. THE NORTHERN PORTIONS OF LA PAZ...NORTHERN
MARICOPA...AND NORTHERN GILA COUNTIES. THESE AREAS COULD SEE A
THREAT OF SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORM. THE BEST CHANCE OF
SHOWERS HOWEVER WILL DEVELOP OVER SOUTHERN GILA COUNTY.

THIS IS A FAST MOVING TROF STORM MOST STORM SUPPORT FORECAST TO MOVE
INTO NORTHWEST NEW MEXICO BY EARLY SATURDAY EVENING.

SUNDAY AND MONDAY...
DRY NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WITH NEARLY CLOUDLESS SKIES...LIGHTER
WIND...AND SLOWLY WARMING AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED THIS
PERIOD.

TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...
DRY WEATHER WITH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST. THE ONLY
CAVEAT WILL BE GUSTY NORTH WINDS OVER THE FORECAST AREA...ESPECIALLY
DOWN THE COLORADO RIVER VALLEY TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...
SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA INCLUDING KPHX...KIWA...AND KSDL...
TYPICAL EASTERLY DIURNAL WINDS THIS MORNING TO BECOME WESTERLY THIS
AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING...THEN REVERT BACK TO EASTERLY LATE
TONIGHT. WIND SPEEDS TO REMAIN MAINLY AOB 8 KTS THROUGH THE TAF
PERIOD. ASIDE FROM SOME HIGH CLOUDINESS FROM TIME-TO-TIME...SKIES TO
REMAIN MOSTLY CLEAR. NO AVIATION CONCERNS.

SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA/SOUTHWEST ARIZONA INCLUDING KIPL AND KBLH...
CURRENT LIGHT WINDS THIS MORNING TO BECOME SOUTHERLY TO
SOUTHWESTERLY FROM THIS AFTERNOON ONWARD INTO TONIGHT WITH SPEEDS
MAINLY IN THE 7-12 KNOT RANGE. ASIDE FROM A FEW HIGH CLOUDS SKIES
SHOULD BE CLEAR. NO AVIATION CONCERNS.

AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDED TAFS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...
RATHER STRONG...AND COLD UPPER LOW (FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR) TO
PRODUCE STRONG AND GUSTY WINDS...AND BRING MUCH COOLER TEMPERATURES
TO THE REGION ON SATURDAY. ALTHOUGH FIRE DANGER LEVELS WILL BE
ELEVATED BY THESE STRONG WINDS...INCREASING MOISTURE LEVELS ARE
EXPECTED TO KEEP FIRE DANGER LEVELS BELOW CRITICAL THRESHOLDS AT
MOST LOCATIONS. MUCH LIGHTER WINDS ARE THEN EXPECTED FROM SUNDAY
ONWARD...WITH TEMPERATURES SLOWLY RECOVERING BACK TOWARD NORMAL
VALUES. OVERNIGHT HUMIDITY RECOVERIES WILL GRADUALLY DETERIORATE AS
THE WEEK PROGRESSES.

&&

.PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

AZ...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM FRIDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING
     AZZ020-025.

CA...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM FRIDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING
     CAZ031.

$$

VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/PHOENIX

DISCUSSION...VASQUEZ
AVIATION....PERCHA
FIRE WEATHER...PERCHA












000
FXUS65 KTWC 240930 CCA
AFDTWC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ
227 AM MST THU APR 24 2014

CORRECTED WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY SECTION

.SYNOPSIS...EXPECT LESS WIND TODAY...THEN WINDS WILL INCREASE FRIDAY
AND BECOME STRONG AND GUSTY SATURDAY AS A STRONGER SYSTEM MOVES
ACROSS THE AREA. THERE WILL BE A CHANCE OF VALLEY RAIN AND HIGH
ELEVATION SNOW SHOWERS SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT. DRY AND WARMER
NEXT WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND 24/00Z UPPER-AIR PLOTS SHOW
THE TROUGH THAT BROUGHT BREEZY CONDITIONS TO THE AREA YESTERDAY IS
CURRENTLY MOVING THROUGH EASTERN NEW MEXICO WITH WEAK RIDGING/NEARLY
ZONAL FLOW BEHIND THIS SYSTEM OVER THE DESERT SOUTHWEST. IR
SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS SCATTERED HIGH LEVEL CIRRUS CLOUDS STREAMING
ACROSS THE GREAT BASIN AND ACROSS NORTHERN ARIZONA. OTHERWISE...
MOSTLY CLEAR THIS FAR SOUTH.

CURRENT TEMPERATURE READINGS AS OF 08Z (2 AM MST)...ARE GENERALLY IN
THE 50S FOR DESERT/VALLEY LOCATIONS AND IN THE 30S TO MID 40S FOR
MOUNTAIN LOCATIONS. THESE CURRENT READINGS RANGE FROM 5 TO 10 DEGS
COOLER THAN THIS TIME YESTERDAY.

MODELS INDICATE THAT ZONAL FLOW WILL CONTINUE TODAY BEFORE A PACIFIC
SYSTEM MOVES INTO THE WEST COAST WITH THE TAIL END OF THIS SYSTEM
MOVING INTO WESTERN ARIZONA EARLY SATURDAY. MODELS INDICATE THAT
THIS SYSTEM WILL BE ABLE TO TAP INTO ENOUGH MOISTURE TO JUSTIFY
SLIGHT CHANCE TO LOW END CHANCE POPS FOR DESERT/VALLEY LOCATIONS AND
CHANCE TO LIKELY POPS FOR THE MOUNTAINS...WITH THE MAIN IMPACT FROM
THIS SYSTEM...AT LEAST PRECIPITATION WISE...OCCURRING OVER THE WHITE
MOUNTAINS WHERE THE HIGHEST PEAKS COULD SEE A COUPLE OF INCHES OR SO
OF SNOW MIXED WITH RAIN. THAT SAID...THIS SYSTEM WILL RESULT IN A
SIGNIFICANT COOL DOWN IN TEMPERATURES SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY.

HOWEVER...THE MOST IMPORTANT FEATURE OF THIS STORM WILL BE THE WINDS
THAT WILL ACCOMPANY THIS STORM. THE WINDS WILL INCREASE ON FRIDAY
AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM AND COULD RESULT IN FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS FOR
BOTH FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...ALBEIT THERE MAY BE TOO MUCH MOISTURE
AROUND ON SATURDAY (SEE FIRE WEATHER SECTION BELOW FOR MORE
DETAILS).

IT IS TOO EARLY TO JUMP ON IT RIGHT NOW...BUT THE WINDS ON SATURDAY
WILL LIKELY EASILY EXCEED WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA...ASSUMING THE
MODELS MAINTAIN THE CURRENT SOLUTIONS. FOR EXAMPLE...THE MOS WIND
GUIDANCE FOR KDUG (DOUGLAS) ON SATURDAY SHOWS SUSTAINED WINDS OF 41
AND 44 MPH RESPECTIVELY FROM THE NAM AND GFS. KSAD (SAFFORD) SHOWS
WINDS OF 36 TO 38 MPH. FARTHER WEST THE WINDS ARE NOT INDICATED TO
BE AS STRONG WITH KOLS (NOGALES) SHOWING WINDS OF 23 TO 25 MPH AND
KTUS (TUCSON) 20 TO 24 MPH. WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED IF A WIND
ADVISORY IS REQUIRED IN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS OR SO FOR AREAS EAST
OF TUCSON TO THE NEW MEXICO BORDER ON SATURDAY.

THIS SYSTEM WILL EXIT THE REGION BY EARLY SUNDAY WITH RIDGING
BEGINNING TO BUILD IN FROM THE WEST INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. BOTH THE
GFS AND ECMWF ARE INDICATING THAT A VORT LOBE DROPPING DOWN THE BACK
SIDE OF THIS EXITING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE THROUGH THE FOUR
CORNERS AREA LATE TUESDAY AND THEN MOVE THROUGH PORTIONS OF THE
STATE IN SOME FORM OR FASHION THROUGH WEDNESDAY. IF THIS OCCURS WE
COULD SEE A SLIGHT LOWERING OF TEMPERATURES DURING THAT TIME AND
PERHAPS A THREAT OF PRECIPITATION...MAINLY FOR THE MOUNTAINS. FOR
NOW THE THREAT IS NOT GREAT ENOUGH...NOR IS CONFIDENCE HIGH ENOUGH
TO MENTION ANY PRECIPITATION AT THIS TIME.

HIGHS GENERALLY 3 TO 4 DEGS ABOVE NORMAL TODAY AND FRIDAY...THEN
AROUND 10 DEGS BELOW NORMAL THIS WEEKEND...THEN ABOUT 2 TO 4 DEGS
BELOW NORMAL FOR MONDAY. THEREAFTER...HIGHS ABOUT 2 TO 3 DEGS ABOVE
NORMAL. LOW TEMPERATURES ABOUT 3 TO 5 DEGS ABOVE NORMAL FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY MORNINGS...THEN 5 TO 10 DEGS BELOW NORMAL SUNDAY AND MONDAY
MORNINGS...BUT THE COOLEST MORNING WILL OCCUR ON SUNDAY WHEN LOWS
WILL BE NEARLY 10 DEGS BELOW NORMAL. FOR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY LOWS
SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL

&&

.AVIATION...VALID THRU 25/12Z.
VFR. ZONAL FLOW ALOFT WILL KEEP A STEADY CIRRUS DECK IN PLACE
THROUGH THE PERIOD. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW 12 KTS AT ALL
TERMINALS. AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR TAF AMENDMENTS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...GENERALLY LIGHT WINDS AND DRY CONDITIONS TODAY AHEAD
OF ANOTHER PACIFIC SYSTEM. THIS SYSTEM WILL DIG SOUTHWARD INTO THE
REGION FRIDAY RESULTING IN A TIGHTENING OF THE PRESSURE GRADIENT. BY
FRIDAY AFTERNOON THE AREA SHOULD EXPERIENCE SOME BREEZY WIND
CONDITIONS. THIS COMBINED WITH THE PREVAILING DRY CONDITIONS COULD
SEE A FEW LOCATIONS HIT RED FLAG CRITERIA. A FIRE WEATHER WATCH IS
IN EFFECT FRIDAY LATE AFTERNOON TO EARLY EVENING FOR AREAS ACROSS
SOUTHERN ZONE 152 AND SOUTHEASTERN ZONE 151...WHERE WINDS WILL BE
THE STRONGEST.

FORECAST TRACK OF THIS SYSTEM AS IT COMES ACROSS THE AREA ON
SATURDAY IS FAVORABLE FOR MOISTURE ADVECTION INTO THE AREA. THIS
WILL RESULT IN SOME VALLEY RAIN AND MOUNTAIN SNOW DURING THE DAY
SATURDAY. SATURDAY WILL HAVE THE STRONGEST WINDS AS THE MAIN JET
CORE PUSHES THROUGH. THE INCREASED MOISTURE AND CLOUD COVER SHOULD
HELP KEEP RED FLAG CONDITIONS AT BAY FOR MOST AREAS. THE BEST AREA
FOR RED FLAG CONDITIONS LOOKS TO BE EAST OF THE SAFFORD TO DOUGLAS
LINE...OR THE EASTERN HALF OF ZONE 152...AS MOISTURE WILL BE A
LITTLE SLOWER TO REACH THESE LOCATIONS. A FIRE WEATHER WATCH IS IN
EFFECT FOR THIS AREA...MINUS THE CHIRICAHUA MOUNTAINS FOR SATURDAY
AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING.

SUNDAY THE FLOW ALOFT SHIFTS TO MORE NORTHWESTERLY AS THE SYSTEM
EXITS AND GIVEN THE LINGERING PRESSURE GRADIENT...AREAS EAST OF
TUCSON COULD SEE SOME BREEZY NORTHWEST WINDS. WINDS WILL BEGIN TO
TAPPER OFF MONDAY...THOUGH WEDNESDAY HAS THE POTENTIAL FOR AN
EASTERLY GRADIENT INDUCED WINDS FROM TUCSON EAST.

&&

.TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM FRIDAY
AFTERNOON THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING FOR AZZ151-152.

FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING
FOR AZZ152.

&&

$$

VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...YOUTUBE...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/TUCSON

PUBLIC...MOLLERE
AVIATION/FIRE WEATHER...HUMPHREYS/MEADOWS







000
FXUS65 KTWC 240927
AFDTWC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ
227 AM MST THU APR 24 2014

.SYNOPSIS...EXPECT LESS WIND TODAY...THEN WINDS WILL INCREASE FRIDAY
AND BECOME STRONG AND GUSTY SATURDAY AS A STRONGER SYSTEM MOVES
ACROSS THE AREA. THERE WILL BE A CHANCE OF VALLEY RAIN AND HIGH
ELEVATION SNOW SHOWERS SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT. DRY AND WARMER
NEXT WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND 24/00Z UPPER-AIR PLOTS SHOW
THE TROUGH THAT BROUGHT BREEZY CONDITIONS TO THE AREA YESTERDAY IS
CURRENTLY MOVING THROUGH EASTERN NEW MEXICO WITH WEAK RIDGING/NEARLY
ZONAL FLOW BEHIND THIS SYSTEM OVER THE DESERT SOUTHWEST. IR
SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS SCATTERED HIGH LEVEL CIRRUS CLOUDS STREAMING
ACROSS THE GREAT BASIN AND ACROSS NORTHERN ARIZONA. OTHERWISE...
MOSTLY CLEAR THIS FAR SOUTH.

CURRENT TEMPERATURE READINGS AS OF 08Z (2 AM MST)...ARE GENERALLY IN
THE 50S FOR DESERT/VALLEY LOCATIONS AND IN THE 30S TO MID 40S FOR
MOUNTAIN LOCATIONS. THESE CURRENT READINGS RANGE FROM 5 TO 10 DEGS
COOLER THAN THIS TIME YESTERDAY.

MODELS INDICATE THAT ZONAL FLOW WILL CONTINUE TODAY BEFORE A PACIFIC
SYSTEM MOVES INTO THE WEST COAST WITH THE TAIL END OF THIS SYSTEM
MOVING INTO WESTERN ARIZONA EARLY SATURDAY. MODELS INDICATE THAT
THIS SYSTEM WILL BE ABLE TO TAP INTO ENOUGH MOISTURE TO JUSTIFY
SLIGHT CHANCE TO LOW END CHANCE POPS FOR DESERT/VALLEY LOCATIONS AND
CHANCE TO LIKELY POPS FOR THE MOUNTAINS...WITH THE MAIN IMPACT FROM
THIS SYSTEM...AT LEAST PRECIPITATION WISE...OCCURRING OVER THE WHITE
MOUNTAINS WHERE THE HIGHEST PEAKS COULD SEE A COUPLE OF INCHES OR SO
OF SNOW MIXED WITH RAIN. THAT SAID...THIS SYSTEM WILL RESULT IN A
SIGNIFICANT COOL DOWN IN TEMPERATURES SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY.

HOWEVER...THE MOST IMPORTANT FEATURE OF THIS STORM WILL BE THE WINDS
THAT WILL ACCOMPANY THIS STORM. THE WINDS WILL INCREASE ON FRIDAY
AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM AND COULD RESULT IN FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS FOR
BOTH FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...ALBEIT THERE MAY BE TOO MUCH MOISTURE
AROUND ON SATURDAY (SEE FIRE WEATHER SECTION BELOW FOR MORE
DETAILS).

IT IS TOO EARLY TO JUMP ON IT RIGHT NOW...BUT THE WINDS ON SATURDAY
WILL LIKELY EASILY EXCEED WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA...ASSUMING THE
MODELS MAINTAIN THE CURRENT SOLUTIONS. FOR EXAMPLE...THE MOS WIND
GUIDANCE FOR KDUG (DOUGLAS) ON SATURDAY SHOWS SUSTAINED WINDS OF 41
AND 44 MPH RESPECTIVELY FROM THE NAM AND GFS. KSAD (SAFFORD) SHOWS
WINDS OF 36 TO 38 MPH. FARTHER WEST THE WINDS ARE NOT INDICATED TO
BE AS STRONG WITH KOLS (NOGALES) SHOWING WINDS OF 23 TO 25 MPH AND
KTUS (TUCSON) 20 TO 24 MPH. WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED IF A WIND
ADVISORY IS REQUIRED IN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS OR SO FOR AREAS EAST
OF TUCSON TO THE NEW MEXICO BORDER ON SATURDAY.

THIS SYSTEM WILL EXIT THE REGION BY EARLY SUNDAY WITH RIDGING
BEGINNING TO BUILD IN FROM THE WEST INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. BOTH THE
GFS AND ECMWF ARE INDICATING THAT A VORT LOBE DROPPING DOWN THE BACK
SIDE OF THIS EXITING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE THROUGH THE FOUR
CORNERS AREA LATE TUESDAY AND THEN MOVE THROUGH PORTIONS OF THE
STATE IN SOME FORM OR FASHION THROUGH WEDNESDAY. IF THIS OCCURS WE
COULD SEE A SLIGHT LOWERING OF TEMPERATURES DURING THAT TIME AND
PERHAPS A THREAT OF PRECIPITATION...MAINLY FOR THE MOUNTAINS. FOR
NOW THE THREAT IS NOT GREAT ENOUGH...NOR IS CONFIDENCE HIGH ENOUGH
TO MENTION ANY PRECIPITATION AT THIS TIME.

HIGHS GENERALLY 3 TO 4 DEGS ABOVE NORMAL TODAY AND FRIDAY...THEN
AROUND 10 DEGS BELOW NORMAL THIS WEEKEND...THEN ABOUT 2 TO 4 DEGS
BELOW NORMAL FOR MONDAY. THEREAFTER...HIGHS ABOUT 2 TO 3 DEGS ABOVE
NORMAL. LOW TEMPERATURES ABOUT 3 TO 5 DEGS ABOVE NORMAL FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY MORNINGS...THEN 5 TO 10 DEGS BELOW NORMAL SUNDAY AND MONDAY
MORNINGS...BUT THE COOLEST MORNING WILL OCCUR ON SUNDAY WHEN LOWS
WILL BE NEARLY 10 DEGS BELOW NORMAL. FOR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY LOWS
SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL

&&

.AVIATION...VALID THRU 25/12Z.
VFR. ZONAL FLOW ALOFT WILL KEEP A STEADY CIRRUS DECK IN PLACE
THROUGH THE PERIOD. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW 12 KTS AT ALL
TERMINALS. AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR TAF AMENDMENTS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...GENERALLY LIGHT WINDS AND DRY CONDITIONS TODAY AHEAD
OF ANOTHER PACIFIC SYSTEM. THIS SYSTEM WILL DIG SOUTHWARD INTO THE
REGION FRIDAY RESULTING IN A TIGHTENING OF THE PRESSURE GRADIENT. BY
FRIDAY AFTERNOON THE AREA SHOULD EXPERIENCE SOME BREEZY WIND
CONDITIONS. THIS COMBINED WITH THE PREVAILING DRY CONDITIONS COULD
SEE A FEW LOCATIONS HIT RED FLAG CRITERIA. A FIRE WEATHER WATCH IS
IN EFFECT FRIDAY LATE AFTERNOON TO EARLY EVENING FOR AREAS ACROSS
SOUTHERN ZONE 152 AND SOUTHEASTERN ZONE 151...WHERE WINDS WILL BE
THE STRONGEST.

FORECAST TRACK OF THIS SYSTEM AS IT COMES ACROSS THE AREA ON
SATURDAY IS FAVORABLE FOR MOISTURE ADVECTION INTO THE AREA. THIS
WILL RESULT IN SOME VALLEY RAIN AND MOUNTAIN SNOW DURING THE DAY
SATURDAY. SATURDAY WILL HAVE THE STRONGEST WINDS AS THE MAIN JET
CORE PUSHES THROUGH. THE INCREASED MOISTURE AND CLOUD COVER SHOULD
HELP KEEP RED FLAG CONDITIONS AT BAY FOR MOST AREAS. THE BEST AREA
FOR RED FLAG CONDITIONS LOOKS TO BE EAST OF THE SAFFORD TO DOUGLAS
LINE...OR THE EASTERN HALF OF ZONE 152...AS MOISTURE WILL BE A
LITTLE SLOWER TO REACH THESE LOCATIONS. A FIRE WEATHER WATCH IS IN
EFFECT FOR THIS AREA...MINUS THE CHIRICAHUA MOUNTAINS FOR SATURDAY
AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING.

SUNDAY THE FLOW ALOFT SHIFTS TO MORE NORTHWESTERLY AS THE SYSTEM
EXITS AND GIVEN THE LINGERING PRESSURE GRADIENT...AREAS EAST OF
TUCSON COULD SEE SOME BREEZY NORTHWEST WINDS. WINDS WILL BEGIN TO
TAPPER OFF MONDAY...THOUGH WEDNESDAY HAS THE POTENTIAL FOR AN
EASTERLY GRADIENT INDUCED WINDS FROM TUCSON EAST.

&&

.TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...YOUTUBE...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/TUCSON

PUBLIC...MOLLERE
AVIATION/FIRE WEATHER...HUMPHREYS/MEADOWS







000
FXUS65 KPSR 240355
AFDPSR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PHOENIX AZ
855 PM MST WED APR 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
WARMER TEMPERATURES WILL MAKE A RETURN THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.
ANOTHER...MUCH STRONGER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL THEN AFFECT THE
REGION FROM FRIDAY ONWARD INTO THE UPCOMING WEEKEND. BREEZY TO WINDY
CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED ALONG WITH MUCH COOLER TEMPERATURES ON
SATURDAY. THERE IS ALSO A CHANCE OF SHOWERS LATE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO
SATURDAY NIGHT...MAINLY FOR THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF SOUTH-CENTRAL
ARIZONA. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING BACK NORTHWARD OVER THE WESTERN US
IS THEN EXPECTED TO BRING WARMER TEMPERATURES FOR THE EARLY AND
MIDDLE PARTS OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
COOLER BUT CONTINUED BREEZY CONDITIONS LINGERED TODAY IN THE WAKE OF
THE PASSING SHORTWAVE IMPULSE...WHICH HAS NOW CLEAR THE FOUR CORNER
AND CLEARING THE ROCKIES FRONT RANGE THIS EVENING. WHILE SURFACE
CONDITIONS IN TERMS OF DEWPOINTS HAVE DRIED SUBSTANTIALLY
TODAY...WITH SINGLE DIGITS TO LOW 10S OBSERVATIONS...WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY AND UPSTREAM RAOBS SHOW SOME HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE STREAMING
THROUGH THE SUBTLE RIDGE HEIGHTS TO OUR WEST. PATCHES OF HIGH CLOUDS
WILL CONTINUE TO STREAM FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST TONIGHT...AT
MOST GENERATING BRIEF PERIODS OF PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES. SURFACE TEMPS
RUNNING 7 TO 10 DEGREES COOLER THAN THIS TIME TUESDAY EVENING...SO
EVEN WITH THE QUICK-PASSING CLOUDS...THINK MIN T FORECAST FOR
TONIGHT IS IN GOOD SHAPE. NO MAJOR UPDATES NEEDED...REMAINDER
OF THE DISCUSSION STILL APPLIES.

&&

.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION /ISSUED AT 255 PM MST/PDT/...
SHORT-WAVE RIDGE WILL BUILD IN OVERNIGHT...RESULTING IN MOSTLY CLEAR
SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS. THIS WILL PROMOTE EFFICIENT RADIATIONAL
COOLING AND TEMPERATURES NEAR OR EVEN SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL.

REBOUND IN TEMPERATURES IS EXPECTED THURSDAY AS A SHORT-WAVE RIDGE
IN THE SUBTROPICAL EASTERN PACIFIC BUILDS EASTWARD. ATTENTION WILL
THEN TURN TO A DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM ALONG THE WEST COAST
FRIDAY. BIGGEST IMPACT ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA WILL BE AN INCREASE
IN WIND AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM. WINDS WILL BE STRONGEST ACROSS SE CA
WHERE GUSTS TO 35 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE AND UP TO 30 MPH ACROSS
SOUTH-CENTRAL AZ INCLUDING THE PHOENIX METRO AREA.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION /ISSUED AT 225 AM MST/PDT/...
THE MODELS ARE ALL NOW SHOWING VERY SHARP HEIGHT FALLS AND
TEMPERATURE DROPS AS THIS SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH...WITH 500MB HEIGHTS
OVER THE PHX AREA FALLING FROM AROUND 572DM ON FRIDAY AFTERNOON TO
AROUND 550-552DM BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON...WITH 850MB TEMPERATURES
FALLING FROM AROUND 19C TO 7C DURING THE SAME PERIOD. ALTHOUGH THERE
WILL LIKELY NOT BE A WHOLE LOT OF MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THIS
SYSTEM...WITH PWATS ONLY BRIEFLY RISING INTO THE 0.75-0.85 INCH
RANGE...THE IMPRESSIVE DYNAMICS AND COOLING THAT THIS SYSTEM WILL
POSSESS WILL LIKELY PRODUCE AT LEAST SOME SHOWER ACTIVITY DURING THE
DAY ON SATURDAY ACROSS SOUTH-CENTRAL AZ ALONG AND JUST AHEAD OF THE
MAIN FRONT. HOWEVER...THE BIGGEST IMPACT FROM THIS SYSTEM WILL
LIKELY BE THE WINDS...WITH WIDESPREAD ADVISORY-LEVEL WINDS POSSIBLE
ON SATURDAY AS EFFICIENT MIXING WILL LIKELY ALLOW 35-40KT 700MB
WINDS TO BE BROUGHT ALL THE WAY DOWN TO THE SFC...WITH BLOWING DUST
LIKELY TO BE A PROBLEM AS WELL. AFTER ANOTHER DAY OF 90+ DEGREE
TEMPERATURES ON FRIDAY...IT NOW LOOK LIKELY THAT HIGHS WILL REMAIN
WELL DOWN IN THE 70S ON SATURDAY. SUNDAY LOOKS LIKE IT WILL BE A
MUCH QUIETER DAY AS THE SYSTEM MOVES OFF RAPIDLY TO THE EAST...WITH
HIGHS REBOUNDING INTO THE LOW 80S ACROSS THE LOWER DESERTS UNDER
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES...WITH JUST SOME AFTERNOON WESTERLY BREEZES.

MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...
ALTHOUGH THERE ARE DIFFERENCES BETWEEN THE MODELS...WITH THE EURO
BEING THE SLOWEST/COOLEST AND THE GEM BEING THE
FASTEST/WARMEST...THEY ALL ARE ATTEMPTING TO REBUILD RIDGING BACK
NORTHWARD OVER THE REGION FOR THE EARLY AND MIDDLE PART OF NEXT
WEEK...WITH TEMPERATURES WARMING BACK UP WELL INTO THE 90S UNDER
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES. HOWEVER...WIDESPREAD TRIPLE-DIGIT TEMPERATURES
DO NOT APPEAR LIKELY AT THIS TIME...SINCE LONG-WAVE TROUGHING OVER
THE CENTRAL CONUS SHOULD KEEP OUR UPPER-LEVEL FLOW A NORTHWESTERLY
ONE.

&&

.AVIATION...
SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA INCLUDING KPHX...KIWA...AND KSDL...
SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA AND SOUTHWEST ARIZONA INCLUDING KIPL AND KBLH...

LIGHTER WINDS EXPECTED OVERNIGHT FOR THE TERMINALS WITH SPEEDS
STAYING MOSTLY UNDER 8KTS...WITH W/SW HEADINGS FOR THE PHX AREA
AIRFIELDS AND W/NW FOR KIPL AND KBLH. WINDS OVERNIGHT AND CLOSER
TOWARDS SUNRISE MAY BECOME LIGHT ENOUGH TO WARRANT VRB HEADINGS. THE
USUAL EASTERLY DRIFT SHOULD WORK IN FOR THE PHX AREA TERMINALS NEAR
OR AFTER 24/0800Z. SKIES WILL REMAIN MOSTLY CLEAR...SAVE FOR A FEW
HIGH CLOUDS MOVING FROM NW TO SE ACROSS ARIZONA OVERNIGHT.

AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDED TAFS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...
UPPER LOW WILL APPROACH THE AREA FRIDAY AND MOVE THROUGH THE AREA ON
SATURDAY. WINDS WILL ONCE AGAIN BE GUSTY ACROSS THE ENTIRE REGION ON
SATURDAY...HOWEVER MOISTURE WILL BE ON THE INCREASE AND TEMPERATURES
WILL BE SUBSTANTIALLY COOLER THAN NORMAL...THUS CRITICAL THRESHOLDS
SHOULD NOT BE REALIZED. MUCH LIGHTER WINDS ARE EXPECTED FROM SUNDAY
ONWARD ALTHOUGH TEMPERATURES WILL SLOWLY RECOVER BACK TOWARD NORMAL
VALUES. RECOVERIES WILL GRADUALLY DETERIORATE AS THE WEEK
PROGRESSES.

&&

.PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

AZ...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM FRIDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING
     AZZ020-025.

CA...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM FRIDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING
     CAZ031.

$$

VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/PHOENIX

DISCUSSION...NOLTE
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...HIRSCH/PERCHA
AVIATION....NOLTE
FIRE WEATHER...LEINS









000
FXUS65 KPSR 240355
AFDPSR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PHOENIX AZ
855 PM MST WED APR 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
WARMER TEMPERATURES WILL MAKE A RETURN THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.
ANOTHER...MUCH STRONGER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL THEN AFFECT THE
REGION FROM FRIDAY ONWARD INTO THE UPCOMING WEEKEND. BREEZY TO WINDY
CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED ALONG WITH MUCH COOLER TEMPERATURES ON
SATURDAY. THERE IS ALSO A CHANCE OF SHOWERS LATE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO
SATURDAY NIGHT...MAINLY FOR THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF SOUTH-CENTRAL
ARIZONA. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING BACK NORTHWARD OVER THE WESTERN US
IS THEN EXPECTED TO BRING WARMER TEMPERATURES FOR THE EARLY AND
MIDDLE PARTS OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
COOLER BUT CONTINUED BREEZY CONDITIONS LINGERED TODAY IN THE WAKE OF
THE PASSING SHORTWAVE IMPULSE...WHICH HAS NOW CLEAR THE FOUR CORNER
AND CLEARING THE ROCKIES FRONT RANGE THIS EVENING. WHILE SURFACE
CONDITIONS IN TERMS OF DEWPOINTS HAVE DRIED SUBSTANTIALLY
TODAY...WITH SINGLE DIGITS TO LOW 10S OBSERVATIONS...WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY AND UPSTREAM RAOBS SHOW SOME HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE STREAMING
THROUGH THE SUBTLE RIDGE HEIGHTS TO OUR WEST. PATCHES OF HIGH CLOUDS
WILL CONTINUE TO STREAM FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST TONIGHT...AT
MOST GENERATING BRIEF PERIODS OF PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES. SURFACE TEMPS
RUNNING 7 TO 10 DEGREES COOLER THAN THIS TIME TUESDAY EVENING...SO
EVEN WITH THE QUICK-PASSING CLOUDS...THINK MIN T FORECAST FOR
TONIGHT IS IN GOOD SHAPE. NO MAJOR UPDATES NEEDED...REMAINDER
OF THE DISCUSSION STILL APPLIES.

&&

.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION /ISSUED AT 255 PM MST/PDT/...
SHORT-WAVE RIDGE WILL BUILD IN OVERNIGHT...RESULTING IN MOSTLY CLEAR
SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS. THIS WILL PROMOTE EFFICIENT RADIATIONAL
COOLING AND TEMPERATURES NEAR OR EVEN SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL.

REBOUND IN TEMPERATURES IS EXPECTED THURSDAY AS A SHORT-WAVE RIDGE
IN THE SUBTROPICAL EASTERN PACIFIC BUILDS EASTWARD. ATTENTION WILL
THEN TURN TO A DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM ALONG THE WEST COAST
FRIDAY. BIGGEST IMPACT ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA WILL BE AN INCREASE
IN WIND AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM. WINDS WILL BE STRONGEST ACROSS SE CA
WHERE GUSTS TO 35 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE AND UP TO 30 MPH ACROSS
SOUTH-CENTRAL AZ INCLUDING THE PHOENIX METRO AREA.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION /ISSUED AT 225 AM MST/PDT/...
THE MODELS ARE ALL NOW SHOWING VERY SHARP HEIGHT FALLS AND
TEMPERATURE DROPS AS THIS SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH...WITH 500MB HEIGHTS
OVER THE PHX AREA FALLING FROM AROUND 572DM ON FRIDAY AFTERNOON TO
AROUND 550-552DM BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON...WITH 850MB TEMPERATURES
FALLING FROM AROUND 19C TO 7C DURING THE SAME PERIOD. ALTHOUGH THERE
WILL LIKELY NOT BE A WHOLE LOT OF MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THIS
SYSTEM...WITH PWATS ONLY BRIEFLY RISING INTO THE 0.75-0.85 INCH
RANGE...THE IMPRESSIVE DYNAMICS AND COOLING THAT THIS SYSTEM WILL
POSSESS WILL LIKELY PRODUCE AT LEAST SOME SHOWER ACTIVITY DURING THE
DAY ON SATURDAY ACROSS SOUTH-CENTRAL AZ ALONG AND JUST AHEAD OF THE
MAIN FRONT. HOWEVER...THE BIGGEST IMPACT FROM THIS SYSTEM WILL
LIKELY BE THE WINDS...WITH WIDESPREAD ADVISORY-LEVEL WINDS POSSIBLE
ON SATURDAY AS EFFICIENT MIXING WILL LIKELY ALLOW 35-40KT 700MB
WINDS TO BE BROUGHT ALL THE WAY DOWN TO THE SFC...WITH BLOWING DUST
LIKELY TO BE A PROBLEM AS WELL. AFTER ANOTHER DAY OF 90+ DEGREE
TEMPERATURES ON FRIDAY...IT NOW LOOK LIKELY THAT HIGHS WILL REMAIN
WELL DOWN IN THE 70S ON SATURDAY. SUNDAY LOOKS LIKE IT WILL BE A
MUCH QUIETER DAY AS THE SYSTEM MOVES OFF RAPIDLY TO THE EAST...WITH
HIGHS REBOUNDING INTO THE LOW 80S ACROSS THE LOWER DESERTS UNDER
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES...WITH JUST SOME AFTERNOON WESTERLY BREEZES.

MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...
ALTHOUGH THERE ARE DIFFERENCES BETWEEN THE MODELS...WITH THE EURO
BEING THE SLOWEST/COOLEST AND THE GEM BEING THE
FASTEST/WARMEST...THEY ALL ARE ATTEMPTING TO REBUILD RIDGING BACK
NORTHWARD OVER THE REGION FOR THE EARLY AND MIDDLE PART OF NEXT
WEEK...WITH TEMPERATURES WARMING BACK UP WELL INTO THE 90S UNDER
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES. HOWEVER...WIDESPREAD TRIPLE-DIGIT TEMPERATURES
DO NOT APPEAR LIKELY AT THIS TIME...SINCE LONG-WAVE TROUGHING OVER
THE CENTRAL CONUS SHOULD KEEP OUR UPPER-LEVEL FLOW A NORTHWESTERLY
ONE.

&&

.AVIATION...
SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA INCLUDING KPHX...KIWA...AND KSDL...
SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA AND SOUTHWEST ARIZONA INCLUDING KIPL AND KBLH...

LIGHTER WINDS EXPECTED OVERNIGHT FOR THE TERMINALS WITH SPEEDS
STAYING MOSTLY UNDER 8KTS...WITH W/SW HEADINGS FOR THE PHX AREA
AIRFIELDS AND W/NW FOR KIPL AND KBLH. WINDS OVERNIGHT AND CLOSER
TOWARDS SUNRISE MAY BECOME LIGHT ENOUGH TO WARRANT VRB HEADINGS. THE
USUAL EASTERLY DRIFT SHOULD WORK IN FOR THE PHX AREA TERMINALS NEAR
OR AFTER 24/0800Z. SKIES WILL REMAIN MOSTLY CLEAR...SAVE FOR A FEW
HIGH CLOUDS MOVING FROM NW TO SE ACROSS ARIZONA OVERNIGHT.

AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDED TAFS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...
UPPER LOW WILL APPROACH THE AREA FRIDAY AND MOVE THROUGH THE AREA ON
SATURDAY. WINDS WILL ONCE AGAIN BE GUSTY ACROSS THE ENTIRE REGION ON
SATURDAY...HOWEVER MOISTURE WILL BE ON THE INCREASE AND TEMPERATURES
WILL BE SUBSTANTIALLY COOLER THAN NORMAL...THUS CRITICAL THRESHOLDS
SHOULD NOT BE REALIZED. MUCH LIGHTER WINDS ARE EXPECTED FROM SUNDAY
ONWARD ALTHOUGH TEMPERATURES WILL SLOWLY RECOVER BACK TOWARD NORMAL
VALUES. RECOVERIES WILL GRADUALLY DETERIORATE AS THE WEEK
PROGRESSES.

&&

.PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

AZ...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM FRIDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING
     AZZ020-025.

CA...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM FRIDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING
     CAZ031.

$$

VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/PHOENIX

DISCUSSION...NOLTE
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...HIRSCH/PERCHA
AVIATION....NOLTE
FIRE WEATHER...LEINS









000
FXUS65 KPSR 240355
AFDPSR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PHOENIX AZ
855 PM MST WED APR 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
WARMER TEMPERATURES WILL MAKE A RETURN THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.
ANOTHER...MUCH STRONGER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL THEN AFFECT THE
REGION FROM FRIDAY ONWARD INTO THE UPCOMING WEEKEND. BREEZY TO WINDY
CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED ALONG WITH MUCH COOLER TEMPERATURES ON
SATURDAY. THERE IS ALSO A CHANCE OF SHOWERS LATE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO
SATURDAY NIGHT...MAINLY FOR THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF SOUTH-CENTRAL
ARIZONA. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING BACK NORTHWARD OVER THE WESTERN US
IS THEN EXPECTED TO BRING WARMER TEMPERATURES FOR THE EARLY AND
MIDDLE PARTS OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
COOLER BUT CONTINUED BREEZY CONDITIONS LINGERED TODAY IN THE WAKE OF
THE PASSING SHORTWAVE IMPULSE...WHICH HAS NOW CLEAR THE FOUR CORNER
AND CLEARING THE ROCKIES FRONT RANGE THIS EVENING. WHILE SURFACE
CONDITIONS IN TERMS OF DEWPOINTS HAVE DRIED SUBSTANTIALLY
TODAY...WITH SINGLE DIGITS TO LOW 10S OBSERVATIONS...WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY AND UPSTREAM RAOBS SHOW SOME HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE STREAMING
THROUGH THE SUBTLE RIDGE HEIGHTS TO OUR WEST. PATCHES OF HIGH CLOUDS
WILL CONTINUE TO STREAM FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST TONIGHT...AT
MOST GENERATING BRIEF PERIODS OF PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES. SURFACE TEMPS
RUNNING 7 TO 10 DEGREES COOLER THAN THIS TIME TUESDAY EVENING...SO
EVEN WITH THE QUICK-PASSING CLOUDS...THINK MIN T FORECAST FOR
TONIGHT IS IN GOOD SHAPE. NO MAJOR UPDATES NEEDED...REMAINDER
OF THE DISCUSSION STILL APPLIES.

&&

.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION /ISSUED AT 255 PM MST/PDT/...
SHORT-WAVE RIDGE WILL BUILD IN OVERNIGHT...RESULTING IN MOSTLY CLEAR
SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS. THIS WILL PROMOTE EFFICIENT RADIATIONAL
COOLING AND TEMPERATURES NEAR OR EVEN SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL.

REBOUND IN TEMPERATURES IS EXPECTED THURSDAY AS A SHORT-WAVE RIDGE
IN THE SUBTROPICAL EASTERN PACIFIC BUILDS EASTWARD. ATTENTION WILL
THEN TURN TO A DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM ALONG THE WEST COAST
FRIDAY. BIGGEST IMPACT ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA WILL BE AN INCREASE
IN WIND AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM. WINDS WILL BE STRONGEST ACROSS SE CA
WHERE GUSTS TO 35 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE AND UP TO 30 MPH ACROSS
SOUTH-CENTRAL AZ INCLUDING THE PHOENIX METRO AREA.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION /ISSUED AT 225 AM MST/PDT/...
THE MODELS ARE ALL NOW SHOWING VERY SHARP HEIGHT FALLS AND
TEMPERATURE DROPS AS THIS SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH...WITH 500MB HEIGHTS
OVER THE PHX AREA FALLING FROM AROUND 572DM ON FRIDAY AFTERNOON TO
AROUND 550-552DM BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON...WITH 850MB TEMPERATURES
FALLING FROM AROUND 19C TO 7C DURING THE SAME PERIOD. ALTHOUGH THERE
WILL LIKELY NOT BE A WHOLE LOT OF MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THIS
SYSTEM...WITH PWATS ONLY BRIEFLY RISING INTO THE 0.75-0.85 INCH
RANGE...THE IMPRESSIVE DYNAMICS AND COOLING THAT THIS SYSTEM WILL
POSSESS WILL LIKELY PRODUCE AT LEAST SOME SHOWER ACTIVITY DURING THE
DAY ON SATURDAY ACROSS SOUTH-CENTRAL AZ ALONG AND JUST AHEAD OF THE
MAIN FRONT. HOWEVER...THE BIGGEST IMPACT FROM THIS SYSTEM WILL
LIKELY BE THE WINDS...WITH WIDESPREAD ADVISORY-LEVEL WINDS POSSIBLE
ON SATURDAY AS EFFICIENT MIXING WILL LIKELY ALLOW 35-40KT 700MB
WINDS TO BE BROUGHT ALL THE WAY DOWN TO THE SFC...WITH BLOWING DUST
LIKELY TO BE A PROBLEM AS WELL. AFTER ANOTHER DAY OF 90+ DEGREE
TEMPERATURES ON FRIDAY...IT NOW LOOK LIKELY THAT HIGHS WILL REMAIN
WELL DOWN IN THE 70S ON SATURDAY. SUNDAY LOOKS LIKE IT WILL BE A
MUCH QUIETER DAY AS THE SYSTEM MOVES OFF RAPIDLY TO THE EAST...WITH
HIGHS REBOUNDING INTO THE LOW 80S ACROSS THE LOWER DESERTS UNDER
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES...WITH JUST SOME AFTERNOON WESTERLY BREEZES.

MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...
ALTHOUGH THERE ARE DIFFERENCES BETWEEN THE MODELS...WITH THE EURO
BEING THE SLOWEST/COOLEST AND THE GEM BEING THE
FASTEST/WARMEST...THEY ALL ARE ATTEMPTING TO REBUILD RIDGING BACK
NORTHWARD OVER THE REGION FOR THE EARLY AND MIDDLE PART OF NEXT
WEEK...WITH TEMPERATURES WARMING BACK UP WELL INTO THE 90S UNDER
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES. HOWEVER...WIDESPREAD TRIPLE-DIGIT TEMPERATURES
DO NOT APPEAR LIKELY AT THIS TIME...SINCE LONG-WAVE TROUGHING OVER
THE CENTRAL CONUS SHOULD KEEP OUR UPPER-LEVEL FLOW A NORTHWESTERLY
ONE.

&&

.AVIATION...
SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA INCLUDING KPHX...KIWA...AND KSDL...
SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA AND SOUTHWEST ARIZONA INCLUDING KIPL AND KBLH...

LIGHTER WINDS EXPECTED OVERNIGHT FOR THE TERMINALS WITH SPEEDS
STAYING MOSTLY UNDER 8KTS...WITH W/SW HEADINGS FOR THE PHX AREA
AIRFIELDS AND W/NW FOR KIPL AND KBLH. WINDS OVERNIGHT AND CLOSER
TOWARDS SUNRISE MAY BECOME LIGHT ENOUGH TO WARRANT VRB HEADINGS. THE
USUAL EASTERLY DRIFT SHOULD WORK IN FOR THE PHX AREA TERMINALS NEAR
OR AFTER 24/0800Z. SKIES WILL REMAIN MOSTLY CLEAR...SAVE FOR A FEW
HIGH CLOUDS MOVING FROM NW TO SE ACROSS ARIZONA OVERNIGHT.

AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDED TAFS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...
UPPER LOW WILL APPROACH THE AREA FRIDAY AND MOVE THROUGH THE AREA ON
SATURDAY. WINDS WILL ONCE AGAIN BE GUSTY ACROSS THE ENTIRE REGION ON
SATURDAY...HOWEVER MOISTURE WILL BE ON THE INCREASE AND TEMPERATURES
WILL BE SUBSTANTIALLY COOLER THAN NORMAL...THUS CRITICAL THRESHOLDS
SHOULD NOT BE REALIZED. MUCH LIGHTER WINDS ARE EXPECTED FROM SUNDAY
ONWARD ALTHOUGH TEMPERATURES WILL SLOWLY RECOVER BACK TOWARD NORMAL
VALUES. RECOVERIES WILL GRADUALLY DETERIORATE AS THE WEEK
PROGRESSES.

&&

.PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

AZ...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM FRIDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING
     AZZ020-025.

CA...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM FRIDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING
     CAZ031.

$$

VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/PHOENIX

DISCUSSION...NOLTE
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...HIRSCH/PERCHA
AVIATION....NOLTE
FIRE WEATHER...LEINS









000
FXUS65 KPSR 240355
AFDPSR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PHOENIX AZ
855 PM MST WED APR 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
WARMER TEMPERATURES WILL MAKE A RETURN THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.
ANOTHER...MUCH STRONGER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL THEN AFFECT THE
REGION FROM FRIDAY ONWARD INTO THE UPCOMING WEEKEND. BREEZY TO WINDY
CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED ALONG WITH MUCH COOLER TEMPERATURES ON
SATURDAY. THERE IS ALSO A CHANCE OF SHOWERS LATE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO
SATURDAY NIGHT...MAINLY FOR THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF SOUTH-CENTRAL
ARIZONA. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING BACK NORTHWARD OVER THE WESTERN US
IS THEN EXPECTED TO BRING WARMER TEMPERATURES FOR THE EARLY AND
MIDDLE PARTS OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
COOLER BUT CONTINUED BREEZY CONDITIONS LINGERED TODAY IN THE WAKE OF
THE PASSING SHORTWAVE IMPULSE...WHICH HAS NOW CLEAR THE FOUR CORNER
AND CLEARING THE ROCKIES FRONT RANGE THIS EVENING. WHILE SURFACE
CONDITIONS IN TERMS OF DEWPOINTS HAVE DRIED SUBSTANTIALLY
TODAY...WITH SINGLE DIGITS TO LOW 10S OBSERVATIONS...WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY AND UPSTREAM RAOBS SHOW SOME HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE STREAMING
THROUGH THE SUBTLE RIDGE HEIGHTS TO OUR WEST. PATCHES OF HIGH CLOUDS
WILL CONTINUE TO STREAM FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST TONIGHT...AT
MOST GENERATING BRIEF PERIODS OF PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES. SURFACE TEMPS
RUNNING 7 TO 10 DEGREES COOLER THAN THIS TIME TUESDAY EVENING...SO
EVEN WITH THE QUICK-PASSING CLOUDS...THINK MIN T FORECAST FOR
TONIGHT IS IN GOOD SHAPE. NO MAJOR UPDATES NEEDED...REMAINDER
OF THE DISCUSSION STILL APPLIES.

&&

.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION /ISSUED AT 255 PM MST/PDT/...
SHORT-WAVE RIDGE WILL BUILD IN OVERNIGHT...RESULTING IN MOSTLY CLEAR
SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS. THIS WILL PROMOTE EFFICIENT RADIATIONAL
COOLING AND TEMPERATURES NEAR OR EVEN SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL.

REBOUND IN TEMPERATURES IS EXPECTED THURSDAY AS A SHORT-WAVE RIDGE
IN THE SUBTROPICAL EASTERN PACIFIC BUILDS EASTWARD. ATTENTION WILL
THEN TURN TO A DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM ALONG THE WEST COAST
FRIDAY. BIGGEST IMPACT ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA WILL BE AN INCREASE
IN WIND AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM. WINDS WILL BE STRONGEST ACROSS SE CA
WHERE GUSTS TO 35 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE AND UP TO 30 MPH ACROSS
SOUTH-CENTRAL AZ INCLUDING THE PHOENIX METRO AREA.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION /ISSUED AT 225 AM MST/PDT/...
THE MODELS ARE ALL NOW SHOWING VERY SHARP HEIGHT FALLS AND
TEMPERATURE DROPS AS THIS SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH...WITH 500MB HEIGHTS
OVER THE PHX AREA FALLING FROM AROUND 572DM ON FRIDAY AFTERNOON TO
AROUND 550-552DM BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON...WITH 850MB TEMPERATURES
FALLING FROM AROUND 19C TO 7C DURING THE SAME PERIOD. ALTHOUGH THERE
WILL LIKELY NOT BE A WHOLE LOT OF MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THIS
SYSTEM...WITH PWATS ONLY BRIEFLY RISING INTO THE 0.75-0.85 INCH
RANGE...THE IMPRESSIVE DYNAMICS AND COOLING THAT THIS SYSTEM WILL
POSSESS WILL LIKELY PRODUCE AT LEAST SOME SHOWER ACTIVITY DURING THE
DAY ON SATURDAY ACROSS SOUTH-CENTRAL AZ ALONG AND JUST AHEAD OF THE
MAIN FRONT. HOWEVER...THE BIGGEST IMPACT FROM THIS SYSTEM WILL
LIKELY BE THE WINDS...WITH WIDESPREAD ADVISORY-LEVEL WINDS POSSIBLE
ON SATURDAY AS EFFICIENT MIXING WILL LIKELY ALLOW 35-40KT 700MB
WINDS TO BE BROUGHT ALL THE WAY DOWN TO THE SFC...WITH BLOWING DUST
LIKELY TO BE A PROBLEM AS WELL. AFTER ANOTHER DAY OF 90+ DEGREE
TEMPERATURES ON FRIDAY...IT NOW LOOK LIKELY THAT HIGHS WILL REMAIN
WELL DOWN IN THE 70S ON SATURDAY. SUNDAY LOOKS LIKE IT WILL BE A
MUCH QUIETER DAY AS THE SYSTEM MOVES OFF RAPIDLY TO THE EAST...WITH
HIGHS REBOUNDING INTO THE LOW 80S ACROSS THE LOWER DESERTS UNDER
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES...WITH JUST SOME AFTERNOON WESTERLY BREEZES.

MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...
ALTHOUGH THERE ARE DIFFERENCES BETWEEN THE MODELS...WITH THE EURO
BEING THE SLOWEST/COOLEST AND THE GEM BEING THE
FASTEST/WARMEST...THEY ALL ARE ATTEMPTING TO REBUILD RIDGING BACK
NORTHWARD OVER THE REGION FOR THE EARLY AND MIDDLE PART OF NEXT
WEEK...WITH TEMPERATURES WARMING BACK UP WELL INTO THE 90S UNDER
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES. HOWEVER...WIDESPREAD TRIPLE-DIGIT TEMPERATURES
DO NOT APPEAR LIKELY AT THIS TIME...SINCE LONG-WAVE TROUGHING OVER
THE CENTRAL CONUS SHOULD KEEP OUR UPPER-LEVEL FLOW A NORTHWESTERLY
ONE.

&&

.AVIATION...
SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA INCLUDING KPHX...KIWA...AND KSDL...
SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA AND SOUTHWEST ARIZONA INCLUDING KIPL AND KBLH...

LIGHTER WINDS EXPECTED OVERNIGHT FOR THE TERMINALS WITH SPEEDS
STAYING MOSTLY UNDER 8KTS...WITH W/SW HEADINGS FOR THE PHX AREA
AIRFIELDS AND W/NW FOR KIPL AND KBLH. WINDS OVERNIGHT AND CLOSER
TOWARDS SUNRISE MAY BECOME LIGHT ENOUGH TO WARRANT VRB HEADINGS. THE
USUAL EASTERLY DRIFT SHOULD WORK IN FOR THE PHX AREA TERMINALS NEAR
OR AFTER 24/0800Z. SKIES WILL REMAIN MOSTLY CLEAR...SAVE FOR A FEW
HIGH CLOUDS MOVING FROM NW TO SE ACROSS ARIZONA OVERNIGHT.

AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDED TAFS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...
UPPER LOW WILL APPROACH THE AREA FRIDAY AND MOVE THROUGH THE AREA ON
SATURDAY. WINDS WILL ONCE AGAIN BE GUSTY ACROSS THE ENTIRE REGION ON
SATURDAY...HOWEVER MOISTURE WILL BE ON THE INCREASE AND TEMPERATURES
WILL BE SUBSTANTIALLY COOLER THAN NORMAL...THUS CRITICAL THRESHOLDS
SHOULD NOT BE REALIZED. MUCH LIGHTER WINDS ARE EXPECTED FROM SUNDAY
ONWARD ALTHOUGH TEMPERATURES WILL SLOWLY RECOVER BACK TOWARD NORMAL
VALUES. RECOVERIES WILL GRADUALLY DETERIORATE AS THE WEEK
PROGRESSES.

&&

.PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

AZ...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM FRIDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING
     AZZ020-025.

CA...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM FRIDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING
     CAZ031.

$$

VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/PHOENIX

DISCUSSION...NOLTE
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...HIRSCH/PERCHA
AVIATION....NOLTE
FIRE WEATHER...LEINS









000
FXUS65 KTWC 240345
AFDTWC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ
845 PM MST WED APR 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...EXPECT LESS WIND ON THURSDAY...THEN WINDS WILL INCREASE
FRIDAY AND BECOME STRONG AND GUSTY SATURDAY AS A STRONGER SYSTEM
MOVES ACROSS THE AREA. THERE WILL BE A CHANCE OF VALLEY RAIN AND
HIGH ELEVATION SNOW SHOWERS SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT. DRY AND
WARMER NEXT WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...WIND SPEEDS CONTINUED TO DIMINISH LATE THIS EVENING AS
THE TAIL END OF A SYSTEM TRACKS FARTHER EAST OF THE AREA. EXPECTING
LESS WIND TOMORROW AS ARIZONA WILL BE IN BETWEEN SYSTEMS.
HOWEVER...STRONG AND GUSTY WINDS WILL RETURN FRIDAY AS ANOTHER LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM APPROACHES THE STATE. UNTIL THEN...THE CURRENT
FORECAST LOOKED ON TRACK SO NO UPDATES PLANNED FOR THIS EVENING.

&&

.AVIATION...SFC WIND BCMG LGT GENERALLY LESS THAN 10 KTS TONIGHT.
OTHERWISE...SCT CIRRUS CLOUDS ABOVE 20K FT AGL. AVIATION DISCUSSION
NOT UPDATED FOR TAF AMENDMENTS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...SOMEWHAT LESS WIND WILL OCCUR THURSDAY...THEN WINDS
WILL INCREASE AGAIN FRIDAY AND BECOME STRONG AND GUSTY SATURDAY AS
ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE AREA. CRITICAL FIRE
WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE BOTH FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. MOISTURE
WILL BE ON THE INCREASE ON SATURDAY...SO FRIDAY MAY END UP BEING THE
DAY FOR A WATCH. A FIRE WEATHER WATCH MAY BE POSTED WITHIN THE NEXT
24 HOURS.

ISOLATED TO SCATTERED VALLEY SHOWERS AND MOUNTAIN SNOW SHOWERS
SATURDAY/SATURDAY EVENING. THERE WILL STILL BE SOME BREEZINESS
SUNDAY...THEN LESS WIND SHOULD OCCUR MONDAY AND TUESDAY AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE AREA.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...LESS WIND THURSDAY BUT STILL GUSTY AT TIMES EAST
OF TUCSON IN NW-SE ORIENTED VALLEYS. HIGHS WILL BE 2-4 DEGREES
WARMER THAN TODAY.

FRIDAY...SW FLOW ALOFT INCREASES IN ADVANCE OF STRONG UPPER LEVEL
TROF MOVING INTO THE WEST COAST. BREEZY TO LOCALLY WINDY WITH HIGHS
SIMILAR TO THURSDAY. FIRE WEATHER ISSUES ARE ADDRESSED BELOW.

SATURDAY...ABOVE MENTIONED STRONG UPPER TROF TO SWING THROUGH THE
STATE BRINGING GUSTY WINDS...AREAS OF BLOWING DUST...A CHANCE OF
VALLEY RAIN AND MOUNTAIN SNOW SHOWERS AND MUCH COOLER TEMPERATURES.
FIRE WEATHER ISSUES ARE ADDRESSED BELOW. MAY EVENTUALLY NEED A WIND
ADVISORY FOR THE EASTERN ZONES. SNOW LEVEL BY LATE SATURDAY
AFTERNOON ARE FORECAST TO BE BETWEEN 6K-6.5KFT NORTH TO NEAR 9KFT
FAR SE. WET SNOW ABOVE 7000 FEET IN THE MOUNTAINS FROM TUCSON NE
INTO THE WHITES WITH A COUPLE OF INCHES POSSIBLE IN THE WHITES.
HIGHS WITH BE 5-17 DEGREES COLDER THAN FRIDAY...WITH THE BIGGEST
CHANGES OCCURRING WEST AND NORTH OF TUCSON. A GOOD ANALOG YEAR THAT
WAS SIMILAR TO THE UPCOMING STORM WAS THE ONE THAT HIT THE STATE
ABOUT THE SAME TIME IN 1994

SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING...SHOWERS ENDING AS SYSTEM MOVES
THROUGH NEW MEXICO. MUCH COLDER AIR MASS AREAWIDE. LOOKING AT 20S
AND 30S IN THE MOUNTAINS WITH A FEW LOWER ELEVATION AREAS OF
GRAHAM...COCHISE AND SANTA CRUZ COUNTIES BETWEEN 30 AND 34 DEGREES.

SUNDAY...A LITTLE WARMER UNDER DRY/COOL NW FLOW ALOFT.

MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...WARMING TREND AS UPPER HIGH BUILDS INTO
THE WEST COAST. ARIZONA WILL BE UNDER DRY NLY FLOW ALOFT.

&&

.TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...YOUTUBE...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/TUCSON







000
FXUS65 KFGZ 240306
AFDFGZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ
806 PM MST WED APR 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
EXPECT FAIR WEATHER THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT. ON FRIDAY...WINDY
CONDITIONS RETURN AS A STRONG LATE SEASON STORM SYSTEM
APPROACHES THE STATE. THE BULK OF THE STORM WILL MOVE THROUGH
NORTHERN ARIZONA ON SATURDAY WITH STRONG WINDS AND RAIN AND SNOW
LIKELY. EXPECT CLEARING FROM WEST TO EAST ON SUNDAY WITH FAIR
WEATHER THROUGH AT LEAST NEXT TUESDAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
FORECAST APPEARS TO BE IN GOOD SHAPE THIS EVENING...WITH NO
SIGNIFICANT SHORT-TERM UPDATES ANTICIPATED.

&&

.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION /300 PM MST/...
EXPECT FAIR WEATHER FROM TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT AS A
SHORTWAVE RIDGE CROSSES THE DESERT SOUTHWEST.

ON FRIDAY...WINDS WILL INCREASE ACROSS THE NORTHLAND AS A VERY
COLD LATE SEASON STORM MOVES INTO CENTRAL CALIFORNIA. THE CURRENT
FORECASTS ARE FOR S-SW WINDS 20-30 MPH W/ GUSTS TO 45 MPH AND THE
FASTEST SPEEDS OCCURRING ALONG AND NORTH OF THE MOGOLLON RIM.

FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...PROGS ARE IN VERY GOOD
AGREEMENT BRINGING THE STRONG LATE SEASON COLD FRONT AND UPPER
LOW THROUGH ARIZONA DURING THIS PERIOD. WE ARE EXPECTING A COMMA
SHAPED CLOUD FEATURE TO MOVE FROM WEST TO EAST DURING THIS PERIOD.
A NORTH TO SOUTH ALIGNED WARM CONVEYOR/COLD FRONT (CONTAINING MOST
OF THE PRECIP ACCUMULATIONS) TO BE MOVING INTO WESTERN AZ AROUND
MIDNIGHT SATURDAY MORNING...ALONG A LINE FROM PAGE TO PAYSON
AROUND NOON SATURDAY...AND REACHING THE NEW MEXICO LINE BY 6 PM
SAT. SNOW LEVELS ARE EXPECTED TO FALL TO 6000 FEET BEHIND THE
FRONT. WHILE MODEL QPF SUPPORTS SEVERAL INCHES OF SNOW ABOVE 7000
FEET...THE WARM GROUND SHOULD REDUCE ACCUMULATIONS AS WILL CLOUD
COVER BREAKS BEHIND THE FRONT. FALLING SNOW WILL AFFECT HIGHWAY
TRAVEL SATURDAY ABOVE 6000-6500 FEET DUE TO LOW VISIBILITIES FOR
SURE AND POSSIBLE ACCUMULATIONS ON THE ROAD. CHECK FUTURE
FORECASTS FOR SNOW ACCUMULATIONS...AT THIS TIME WE EXPECT 3-6
INCHES ABOVE 8000 FEET. NOT SURE YET ABOUT ACCUMULATIONS BTWN
6000-8000 FEET.

AREAS SOUTH OF THE MOGOLLON RIM SHOULD SEE RAIN ACCUMULATIONS OF
.40-.75 OF AN INCH. WIND SHEAR AND COLD TEMPERATURES (-27C AT H5)
WITH THIS STORM WILL ALSO SUPPORT AT LEAST SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS...WITH A LOW PROBABILITY OF SEVERE STORMS. THESE
ARE TIMED WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE.

WRAP AROUND MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY CONTINUE SATURDAY NIGHT AND
SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS ARE FORECAST ACROSS
THE NORTHLAND.

ON SUNDAY....LOOK FOR CLEARING FROM WEST TO EAST. FAST NORTH
NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT IS EXPECTED TO BRING GUSTY NORTH NORTHWEST
AFTERNOON WINDS TO ALL.

MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...EXPECT MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND A WARMING
TREND.

&&

.AVIATION...
FOR THE 06Z PACKAGE...VFR CONDITIONS UNDER OCCASIONAL UPPER-LEVEL
CLOUDINESS ARE EXPECTED FOR THE 24 HOUR TAF PERIOD. WINDS WILL BE
GENERALLY LIGHT OVERNIGHT...BECOMING SW10-15G20-25KT AFTER 18Z
THURSDAY. AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDMENTS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
THURSDAY...A WARM AND DRY WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL BRING LIGHT
WINDS IN THE MORNING BECOMING BREEZY IN THE AFTERNOON.

FRIDAY...AN APPROACHING PACIFIC LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL RESULT IN
STRONG WINDS AND LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY WITH PORTIONS OF
NORTHEAST ARIZONA REACHING CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER THRESHOLDS. A
FIRE WEATHER WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR FRIDAY.

SATURDAY...A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AND COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS
ARIZONA ON SATURDAY BRINGING WIDESPREAD RAIN...MOUNTAIN
SNOW...AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS.

SUNDAY AND MONDAY....BREEZY NORTHERLY WINDS AND COOLER
TEMPERATURES CAN BE EXPECTED ON SUNDAY...WITH MUCH WARMER
TEMPERATURES ON MONDAY.

&&

.FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM FRIDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH FRIDAY
EVENING FOR AZZ105-109-110-112>114-140.

&&

$$

PUBLIC.........KD/DL
AVIATION.......KD
FIRE WEATHER...DB

FOR NORTHERN ARIZONA WEATHER INFORMATION VISIT
WEATHER.GOV/FLAGSTAFF







000
FXUS65 KFGZ 232210
AFDFGZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ
300 PM MST WED APR 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...EXPECT FAIR WEATHER THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT. ON FRIDAY...
WINDY CONDITIONS RETURN AS A STRONG LATE SEASON STORM SYSTEM
APPROACHES THE STATE. THE BULK OF THE STORM TO MOVE THROUGH NORTHERN
ARIZONA ON SATURDAY WITH STRONG WINDS AND RAIN AND SNOW LIKELY AND
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE. EXPECT CLEARING FROM WEST TO EAST
ON SUNDAY WITH FAIR WEATHER THROUGH AT LEAST NEXT TUESDAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
EXPECT FAIR WEATHER FROM TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT AS A
SHORTWAVE RIDGE CROSSES THE DESERT SOUTHWEST.

ON FRIDAY...WINDS WILL INCREASE ACROSS THE NORTHLAND AS A VERY COLD
LATE SEASON STORM MOVES INTO CENTRAL CALIFORNIA. THE CURRENT
FORECASTS ARE FOR S-SW WINDS 20-30 MPH W/ GUSTS TO 45 MPH AND THE
FASTEST SPEEDS OCCURRING ALONG AND NORTH OF THE MOGOLLON RIM.

FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...PROGS ARE IN VERY GOOD
AGREEMENT BRINGING THE STRONG LATE SEASON COLD FRONT AND UPPER LOW
THROUGH ARIZONA DURING THIS PERIOD. WE ARE EXPECTING A COMMA SHAPED
CLOUD FEATURE TO MOVE FROM WEST TO EAST DURING THIS PERIOD. A NORTH
TO SOUTH ALIGNED WARM CONVEYOR/COLD FRONT (CONTAINING MOST OF THE
PRECIP ACCUMULATIONS) TO BE MOVING INTO WESTERN AZ AROUND MIDNIGHT
SATURDAY MORNING...ALONG A LINE FROM PAGE TO PAYSON AROUND NOON
SATURDAY...AND REACHING THE NEW MEXICO LINE BY 6 PM SAT. SNOW LEVELS
ARE EXPECTED TO FALL TO 6000 FEET BEHIND THE FRONT. WHILE MODEL
QPF SUPPORTS SEVERAL INCHES OF SNOW ABOVE 7000 FEET...THE WARM
GROUND SHOULD REDUCE ACCUMULATIONS AS WILL CLOUD COVER BREAKS BEHIND
THE FRONT. FALLING SNOW WILL AFFECT HIGHWAY TRAVEL SATURDAY ABOVE
6000-6500 FEET DUE TO LOW VISIBILITIES FOR SURE AND POSSIBLE
ACCUMULATIONS ON THE ROAD. CHECK FUTURE FORECASTS FOR SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS...AT THIS TIME WE EXPECT 3-6 INCHES ABOVE 8000 FEET.
NOT SURE YET ABOUT ACCUMULATIONS BTWN 6000-8000 FEET.

AREAS SOUTH OF THE MOGOLLON RIM SHOULD SEE RAIN ACCUMULATIONS OF
.40 -.75 OF AN INCH. WIND SHEAR AND COLD TEMPERATURES (-27C AT H5)
WITH THIS STORM WILL ALSO SUPPORT AT LEAST SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS...WITH A LOW PROBABILITY OF SEVERE STORMS. THESE ARE
TIMED WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE.

WRAP AROUND MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY CONTINUE SATURDAY NIGHT AND
SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS ARE FORECAST ACROSS THE
NORTHLAND.

ON SUNDAY....LOOK FOR CLEARING FROM WEST TO EAST. FAST NORTH
NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT IS EXPECTED TO BRING GUSTY NORTH NORTHWEST
AFTERNOON WINDS TO ALL.

MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...EXPECT MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND A WARMING
TREND.

&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 00Z PACKAGE...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR THE 24
HOUR FCST PERIOD. WINDS DIMINISHING OVERNIGHT...BCMG SW10-15G20-25KT
AFT 24/18Z. AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDMENTS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...THURSDAY...A WARM AND DRY WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL
BRING LIGHT WINDS IN THE MORNING BECOMING BREEZY IN THE AFTERNOON.

FRIDAY...AN APPROACHING PACIFIC LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL RESULT IN
STRONG WINDS AND LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY WITH PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST
ARIZONA REACHING CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER THRESHOLDS. A FIRE WEATHER
WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR FRIDAY.

SATURDAY...A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AND COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS
ARIZONA ON SATURDAY BRINGING WIDESPREAD RAIN...MOUNTAIN SNOW...AND
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS.

SUNDAY AND MONDAY....BREEZY NORTHERLY WINDS AND COOLER TEMPERATURES
CAN BE EXPECTED ON SUNDAY...WITH MUCH WARMER TEMPERATURES ON MONDAY.


.FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM FRIDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH FRIDAY
EVENING FOR AZZ105-109-110-112>114-140.

&&

$$

PUBLIC.........DL
AVIATION.......DB
FIRE WEATHER...DB

FOR NORTHERN ARIZONA WEATHER INFORMATION VISIT
WEATHER.GOV/FLAGSTAFF












000
FXUS65 KPSR 232157
AFDPSR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PHOENIX AZ
255 PM MST WED APR 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
WARMER TEMPERATURES WILL MAKE A RETURN THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.
ANOTHER...MUCH STRONGER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL THEN AFFECT THE
REGION FROM FRIDAY ONWARD INTO THE UPCOMING WEEKEND. BREEZY TO WINDY
CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED ALONG WITH MUCH COOLER TEMPERATURES ON
SATURDAY. THERE IS ALSO A CHANCE OF SHOWERS LATE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO
SATURDAY NIGHT...MAINLY FOR THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF SOUTH-CENTRAL
ARIZONA. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING BACK NORTHWARD OVER THE WESTERN US
IS THEN EXPECTED TO BRING WARMER TEMPERATURES FOR THE EARLY AND
MIDDLE PARTS OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
SHORT-WAVE TROUGH NEAR THE FOUR CORNERS CONTINUES TO SLIDE EASTWARD.
BEHIND THE TROUGH AXIS...NORTHWESTERLY FLOW HAS ADVECTED COOLER AND
DRIER AIR INTO THE REGION...WITH TEMPERATURES RUNNING NEARLY 10
DEGREES BELOW THOSE OBSERVED YESTERDAY. SHORT-WAVE RIDGE WILL BUILD
IN OVERNIGHT...RESULTING IN MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS. THIS
WILL PROMOTE EFFICIENT RADIATIONAL COOLING AND TEMPERATURES NEAR OR
EVEN SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL.

REBOUND IN TEMPERATURES IS EXPECTED THURSDAY AS A SHORT-WAVE RIDGE
IN THE SUBTROPICAL EASTERN PACIFIC BUILDS EASTWARD. ATTENTION WILL
THEN TURN TO A DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM ALONG THE WEST COAST
FRIDAY. BIGGEST IMPACT ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA WILL BE AN INCREASE
IN WIND AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM. WINDS WILL BE STRONGEST ACROSS SE CA
WHERE GUSTS TO 35 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE AND UP TO 30 MPH ACROSS
SOUTH-CENTRAL AZ INCLUDING THE PHOENIX METRO AREA.

&&

.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
THE MODELS ARE ALL NOW SHOWING VERY SHARP HEIGHT FALLS AND
TEMPERATURE DROPS AS THIS SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH...WITH 500MB HEIGHTS
OVER THE PHX AREA FALLING FROM AROUND 572DM ON FRIDAY AFTERNOON TO
AROUND 550-552DM BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON...WITH 850MB TEMPERATURES
FALLING FROM AROUND 19C TO 7C DURING THE SAME PERIOD. ALTHOUGH THERE
WILL LIKELY NOT BE A WHOLE LOT OF MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THIS
SYSTEM...WITH PWATS ONLY BRIEFLY RISING INTO THE 0.75-0.85 INCH
RANGE...THE IMPRESSIVE DYNAMICS AND COOLING THAT THIS SYSTEM WILL
POSSESS WILL LIKELY PRODUCE AT LEAST SOME SHOWER ACTIVITY DURING THE
DAY ON SATURDAY ACROSS SOUTH-CENTRAL AZ ALONG AND JUST AHEAD OF THE
MAIN FRONT. HOWEVER...THE BIGGEST IMPACT FROM THIS SYSTEM WILL
LIKELY BE THE WINDS...WITH WIDESPREAD ADVISORY-LEVEL WINDS POSSIBLE
ON SATURDAY AS EFFICIENT MIXING WILL LIKELY ALLOW 35-40KT 700MB
WINDS TO BE BROUGHT ALL THE WAY DOWN TO THE SFC...WITH BLOWING DUST
LIKELY TO BE A PROBLEM AS WELL. AFTER ANOTHER DAY OF 90+ DEGREE
TEMPERATURES ON FRIDAY...IT NOW LOOK LIKELY THAT HIGHS WILL REMAIN
WELL DOWN IN THE 70S ON SATURDAY. SUNDAY LOOKS LIKE IT WILL BE A
MUCH QUIETER DAY AS THE SYSTEM MOVES OFF RAPIDLY TO THE EAST...WITH
HIGHS REBOUNDING INTO THE LOW 80S ACROSS THE LOWER DESERTS UNDER
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES...WITH JUST SOME AFTERNOON WESTERLY BREEZES.

MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...
ALTHOUGH THERE ARE DIFFERENCES BETWEEN THE MODELS...WITH THE EURO
BEING THE SLOWEST/COOLEST AND THE GEM BEING THE
FASTEST/WARMEST...THEY ALL ARE ATTEMPTING TO REBUILD RIDGING BACK
NORTHWARD OVER THE REGION FOR THE EARLY AND MIDDLE PART OF NEXT
WEEK...WITH TEMPERATURES WARMING BACK UP WELL INTO THE 90S UNDER
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES. HOWEVER...WIDESPREAD TRIPLE-DIGIT TEMPERATURES
DO NOT APPEAR LIKELY AT THIS TIME...SINCE LONG-WAVE TROUGHING OVER
THE CENTRAL CONUS SHOULD KEEP OUR UPPER-LEVEL FLOW A NORTHWESTERLY
ONE.

&&

.AVIATION...
SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA INCLUDING KPHX...KIWA...AND KSDL...
WEST WINDS AROUND 12G20KTS WILL PREVAIL AT ALL PHOENIX SITES THROUGH
LATE AFTERNOON BUT SHOULD RELAX QUICKLY AFTER SUNSET. FROM
THERE...EXPECT THE USUAL EASTERLY DRIFT TO KICK IN AROUND MIDNIGHT
WITH LIGHT SPEEDS THROUGH AT LEAST 18Z THURSDAY.

SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA/SOUTHWEST ARIZONA INCLUDING KIPL AND KBLH...
NORTHWEST GUSTY WINDS WILL GRADUALLY BACK TO THE WEST LATER THIS
AFTERNOON AND RELAX AFTER 03Z WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING.
ASIDE FROM A FEW HIGH CLOUDS SKIES SHOULD BE CLEAR. NO AVIATION
CONCERNS.

AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDED TAFS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...
UPPER LOW WILL APPROACH THE AREA FRIDAY AND MOVE THROUGH THE AREA ON
SATURDAY. WINDS WILL ONCE AGAIN BE GUSTY ACROSS THE ENTIRE REGION ON
SATURDAY...HOWEVER MOISTURE WILL BE ON THE INCREASE AND TEMPERATURES
WILL BE SUBSTANTIALLY COOLER THAN NORMAL...THUS CRITICAL THRESHOLDS
SHOULD NOT BE REALIZED. MUCH LIGHTER WINDS ARE EXPECTED FROM SUNDAY
ONWARD ALTHOUGH TEMPERATURES WILL SLOWLY RECOVER BACK TOWARD NORMAL
VALUES. RECOVERIES WILL GRADUALLY DETERIORATE AS THE WEEK
PROGRESSES.

&&

.PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

AZ...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM FRIDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING
     AZZ020-025.

CA...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM FRIDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING
     CAZ031.

$$

VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/PHOENIX

DISCUSSION...HIRSCH
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...PERCHA
AVIATION....LEINS
FIRE WEATHER...LEINS






000
FXUS65 KPSR 232157
AFDPSR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PHOENIX AZ
255 PM MST WED APR 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
WARMER TEMPERATURES WILL MAKE A RETURN THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.
ANOTHER...MUCH STRONGER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL THEN AFFECT THE
REGION FROM FRIDAY ONWARD INTO THE UPCOMING WEEKEND. BREEZY TO WINDY
CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED ALONG WITH MUCH COOLER TEMPERATURES ON
SATURDAY. THERE IS ALSO A CHANCE OF SHOWERS LATE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO
SATURDAY NIGHT...MAINLY FOR THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF SOUTH-CENTRAL
ARIZONA. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING BACK NORTHWARD OVER THE WESTERN US
IS THEN EXPECTED TO BRING WARMER TEMPERATURES FOR THE EARLY AND
MIDDLE PARTS OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
SHORT-WAVE TROUGH NEAR THE FOUR CORNERS CONTINUES TO SLIDE EASTWARD.
BEHIND THE TROUGH AXIS...NORTHWESTERLY FLOW HAS ADVECTED COOLER AND
DRIER AIR INTO THE REGION...WITH TEMPERATURES RUNNING NEARLY 10
DEGREES BELOW THOSE OBSERVED YESTERDAY. SHORT-WAVE RIDGE WILL BUILD
IN OVERNIGHT...RESULTING IN MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS. THIS
WILL PROMOTE EFFICIENT RADIATIONAL COOLING AND TEMPERATURES NEAR OR
EVEN SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL.

REBOUND IN TEMPERATURES IS EXPECTED THURSDAY AS A SHORT-WAVE RIDGE
IN THE SUBTROPICAL EASTERN PACIFIC BUILDS EASTWARD. ATTENTION WILL
THEN TURN TO A DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM ALONG THE WEST COAST
FRIDAY. BIGGEST IMPACT ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA WILL BE AN INCREASE
IN WIND AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM. WINDS WILL BE STRONGEST ACROSS SE CA
WHERE GUSTS TO 35 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE AND UP TO 30 MPH ACROSS
SOUTH-CENTRAL AZ INCLUDING THE PHOENIX METRO AREA.

&&

.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
THE MODELS ARE ALL NOW SHOWING VERY SHARP HEIGHT FALLS AND
TEMPERATURE DROPS AS THIS SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH...WITH 500MB HEIGHTS
OVER THE PHX AREA FALLING FROM AROUND 572DM ON FRIDAY AFTERNOON TO
AROUND 550-552DM BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON...WITH 850MB TEMPERATURES
FALLING FROM AROUND 19C TO 7C DURING THE SAME PERIOD. ALTHOUGH THERE
WILL LIKELY NOT BE A WHOLE LOT OF MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THIS
SYSTEM...WITH PWATS ONLY BRIEFLY RISING INTO THE 0.75-0.85 INCH
RANGE...THE IMPRESSIVE DYNAMICS AND COOLING THAT THIS SYSTEM WILL
POSSESS WILL LIKELY PRODUCE AT LEAST SOME SHOWER ACTIVITY DURING THE
DAY ON SATURDAY ACROSS SOUTH-CENTRAL AZ ALONG AND JUST AHEAD OF THE
MAIN FRONT. HOWEVER...THE BIGGEST IMPACT FROM THIS SYSTEM WILL
LIKELY BE THE WINDS...WITH WIDESPREAD ADVISORY-LEVEL WINDS POSSIBLE
ON SATURDAY AS EFFICIENT MIXING WILL LIKELY ALLOW 35-40KT 700MB
WINDS TO BE BROUGHT ALL THE WAY DOWN TO THE SFC...WITH BLOWING DUST
LIKELY TO BE A PROBLEM AS WELL. AFTER ANOTHER DAY OF 90+ DEGREE
TEMPERATURES ON FRIDAY...IT NOW LOOK LIKELY THAT HIGHS WILL REMAIN
WELL DOWN IN THE 70S ON SATURDAY. SUNDAY LOOKS LIKE IT WILL BE A
MUCH QUIETER DAY AS THE SYSTEM MOVES OFF RAPIDLY TO THE EAST...WITH
HIGHS REBOUNDING INTO THE LOW 80S ACROSS THE LOWER DESERTS UNDER
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES...WITH JUST SOME AFTERNOON WESTERLY BREEZES.

MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...
ALTHOUGH THERE ARE DIFFERENCES BETWEEN THE MODELS...WITH THE EURO
BEING THE SLOWEST/COOLEST AND THE GEM BEING THE
FASTEST/WARMEST...THEY ALL ARE ATTEMPTING TO REBUILD RIDGING BACK
NORTHWARD OVER THE REGION FOR THE EARLY AND MIDDLE PART OF NEXT
WEEK...WITH TEMPERATURES WARMING BACK UP WELL INTO THE 90S UNDER
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES. HOWEVER...WIDESPREAD TRIPLE-DIGIT TEMPERATURES
DO NOT APPEAR LIKELY AT THIS TIME...SINCE LONG-WAVE TROUGHING OVER
THE CENTRAL CONUS SHOULD KEEP OUR UPPER-LEVEL FLOW A NORTHWESTERLY
ONE.

&&

.AVIATION...
SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA INCLUDING KPHX...KIWA...AND KSDL...
WEST WINDS AROUND 12G20KTS WILL PREVAIL AT ALL PHOENIX SITES THROUGH
LATE AFTERNOON BUT SHOULD RELAX QUICKLY AFTER SUNSET. FROM
THERE...EXPECT THE USUAL EASTERLY DRIFT TO KICK IN AROUND MIDNIGHT
WITH LIGHT SPEEDS THROUGH AT LEAST 18Z THURSDAY.

SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA/SOUTHWEST ARIZONA INCLUDING KIPL AND KBLH...
NORTHWEST GUSTY WINDS WILL GRADUALLY BACK TO THE WEST LATER THIS
AFTERNOON AND RELAX AFTER 03Z WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING.
ASIDE FROM A FEW HIGH CLOUDS SKIES SHOULD BE CLEAR. NO AVIATION
CONCERNS.

AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDED TAFS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...
UPPER LOW WILL APPROACH THE AREA FRIDAY AND MOVE THROUGH THE AREA ON
SATURDAY. WINDS WILL ONCE AGAIN BE GUSTY ACROSS THE ENTIRE REGION ON
SATURDAY...HOWEVER MOISTURE WILL BE ON THE INCREASE AND TEMPERATURES
WILL BE SUBSTANTIALLY COOLER THAN NORMAL...THUS CRITICAL THRESHOLDS
SHOULD NOT BE REALIZED. MUCH LIGHTER WINDS ARE EXPECTED FROM SUNDAY
ONWARD ALTHOUGH TEMPERATURES WILL SLOWLY RECOVER BACK TOWARD NORMAL
VALUES. RECOVERIES WILL GRADUALLY DETERIORATE AS THE WEEK
PROGRESSES.

&&

.PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

AZ...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM FRIDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING
     AZZ020-025.

CA...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM FRIDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING
     CAZ031.

$$

VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/PHOENIX

DISCUSSION...HIRSCH
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...PERCHA
AVIATION....LEINS
FIRE WEATHER...LEINS






000
FXUS65 KPSR 232157
AFDPSR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PHOENIX AZ
255 PM MST WED APR 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
WARMER TEMPERATURES WILL MAKE A RETURN THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.
ANOTHER...MUCH STRONGER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL THEN AFFECT THE
REGION FROM FRIDAY ONWARD INTO THE UPCOMING WEEKEND. BREEZY TO WINDY
CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED ALONG WITH MUCH COOLER TEMPERATURES ON
SATURDAY. THERE IS ALSO A CHANCE OF SHOWERS LATE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO
SATURDAY NIGHT...MAINLY FOR THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF SOUTH-CENTRAL
ARIZONA. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING BACK NORTHWARD OVER THE WESTERN US
IS THEN EXPECTED TO BRING WARMER TEMPERATURES FOR THE EARLY AND
MIDDLE PARTS OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
SHORT-WAVE TROUGH NEAR THE FOUR CORNERS CONTINUES TO SLIDE EASTWARD.
BEHIND THE TROUGH AXIS...NORTHWESTERLY FLOW HAS ADVECTED COOLER AND
DRIER AIR INTO THE REGION...WITH TEMPERATURES RUNNING NEARLY 10
DEGREES BELOW THOSE OBSERVED YESTERDAY. SHORT-WAVE RIDGE WILL BUILD
IN OVERNIGHT...RESULTING IN MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS. THIS
WILL PROMOTE EFFICIENT RADIATIONAL COOLING AND TEMPERATURES NEAR OR
EVEN SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL.

REBOUND IN TEMPERATURES IS EXPECTED THURSDAY AS A SHORT-WAVE RIDGE
IN THE SUBTROPICAL EASTERN PACIFIC BUILDS EASTWARD. ATTENTION WILL
THEN TURN TO A DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM ALONG THE WEST COAST
FRIDAY. BIGGEST IMPACT ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA WILL BE AN INCREASE
IN WIND AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM. WINDS WILL BE STRONGEST ACROSS SE CA
WHERE GUSTS TO 35 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE AND UP TO 30 MPH ACROSS
SOUTH-CENTRAL AZ INCLUDING THE PHOENIX METRO AREA.

&&

.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
THE MODELS ARE ALL NOW SHOWING VERY SHARP HEIGHT FALLS AND
TEMPERATURE DROPS AS THIS SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH...WITH 500MB HEIGHTS
OVER THE PHX AREA FALLING FROM AROUND 572DM ON FRIDAY AFTERNOON TO
AROUND 550-552DM BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON...WITH 850MB TEMPERATURES
FALLING FROM AROUND 19C TO 7C DURING THE SAME PERIOD. ALTHOUGH THERE
WILL LIKELY NOT BE A WHOLE LOT OF MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THIS
SYSTEM...WITH PWATS ONLY BRIEFLY RISING INTO THE 0.75-0.85 INCH
RANGE...THE IMPRESSIVE DYNAMICS AND COOLING THAT THIS SYSTEM WILL
POSSESS WILL LIKELY PRODUCE AT LEAST SOME SHOWER ACTIVITY DURING THE
DAY ON SATURDAY ACROSS SOUTH-CENTRAL AZ ALONG AND JUST AHEAD OF THE
MAIN FRONT. HOWEVER...THE BIGGEST IMPACT FROM THIS SYSTEM WILL
LIKELY BE THE WINDS...WITH WIDESPREAD ADVISORY-LEVEL WINDS POSSIBLE
ON SATURDAY AS EFFICIENT MIXING WILL LIKELY ALLOW 35-40KT 700MB
WINDS TO BE BROUGHT ALL THE WAY DOWN TO THE SFC...WITH BLOWING DUST
LIKELY TO BE A PROBLEM AS WELL. AFTER ANOTHER DAY OF 90+ DEGREE
TEMPERATURES ON FRIDAY...IT NOW LOOK LIKELY THAT HIGHS WILL REMAIN
WELL DOWN IN THE 70S ON SATURDAY. SUNDAY LOOKS LIKE IT WILL BE A
MUCH QUIETER DAY AS THE SYSTEM MOVES OFF RAPIDLY TO THE EAST...WITH
HIGHS REBOUNDING INTO THE LOW 80S ACROSS THE LOWER DESERTS UNDER
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES...WITH JUST SOME AFTERNOON WESTERLY BREEZES.

MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...
ALTHOUGH THERE ARE DIFFERENCES BETWEEN THE MODELS...WITH THE EURO
BEING THE SLOWEST/COOLEST AND THE GEM BEING THE
FASTEST/WARMEST...THEY ALL ARE ATTEMPTING TO REBUILD RIDGING BACK
NORTHWARD OVER THE REGION FOR THE EARLY AND MIDDLE PART OF NEXT
WEEK...WITH TEMPERATURES WARMING BACK UP WELL INTO THE 90S UNDER
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES. HOWEVER...WIDESPREAD TRIPLE-DIGIT TEMPERATURES
DO NOT APPEAR LIKELY AT THIS TIME...SINCE LONG-WAVE TROUGHING OVER
THE CENTRAL CONUS SHOULD KEEP OUR UPPER-LEVEL FLOW A NORTHWESTERLY
ONE.

&&

.AVIATION...
SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA INCLUDING KPHX...KIWA...AND KSDL...
WEST WINDS AROUND 12G20KTS WILL PREVAIL AT ALL PHOENIX SITES THROUGH
LATE AFTERNOON BUT SHOULD RELAX QUICKLY AFTER SUNSET. FROM
THERE...EXPECT THE USUAL EASTERLY DRIFT TO KICK IN AROUND MIDNIGHT
WITH LIGHT SPEEDS THROUGH AT LEAST 18Z THURSDAY.

SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA/SOUTHWEST ARIZONA INCLUDING KIPL AND KBLH...
NORTHWEST GUSTY WINDS WILL GRADUALLY BACK TO THE WEST LATER THIS
AFTERNOON AND RELAX AFTER 03Z WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING.
ASIDE FROM A FEW HIGH CLOUDS SKIES SHOULD BE CLEAR. NO AVIATION
CONCERNS.

AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDED TAFS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...
UPPER LOW WILL APPROACH THE AREA FRIDAY AND MOVE THROUGH THE AREA ON
SATURDAY. WINDS WILL ONCE AGAIN BE GUSTY ACROSS THE ENTIRE REGION ON
SATURDAY...HOWEVER MOISTURE WILL BE ON THE INCREASE AND TEMPERATURES
WILL BE SUBSTANTIALLY COOLER THAN NORMAL...THUS CRITICAL THRESHOLDS
SHOULD NOT BE REALIZED. MUCH LIGHTER WINDS ARE EXPECTED FROM SUNDAY
ONWARD ALTHOUGH TEMPERATURES WILL SLOWLY RECOVER BACK TOWARD NORMAL
VALUES. RECOVERIES WILL GRADUALLY DETERIORATE AS THE WEEK
PROGRESSES.

&&

.PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

AZ...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM FRIDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING
     AZZ020-025.

CA...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM FRIDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING
     CAZ031.

$$

VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/PHOENIX

DISCUSSION...HIRSCH
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...PERCHA
AVIATION....LEINS
FIRE WEATHER...LEINS






000
FXUS65 KPSR 232157
AFDPSR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PHOENIX AZ
255 PM MST WED APR 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
WARMER TEMPERATURES WILL MAKE A RETURN THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.
ANOTHER...MUCH STRONGER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL THEN AFFECT THE
REGION FROM FRIDAY ONWARD INTO THE UPCOMING WEEKEND. BREEZY TO WINDY
CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED ALONG WITH MUCH COOLER TEMPERATURES ON
SATURDAY. THERE IS ALSO A CHANCE OF SHOWERS LATE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO
SATURDAY NIGHT...MAINLY FOR THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF SOUTH-CENTRAL
ARIZONA. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING BACK NORTHWARD OVER THE WESTERN US
IS THEN EXPECTED TO BRING WARMER TEMPERATURES FOR THE EARLY AND
MIDDLE PARTS OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
SHORT-WAVE TROUGH NEAR THE FOUR CORNERS CONTINUES TO SLIDE EASTWARD.
BEHIND THE TROUGH AXIS...NORTHWESTERLY FLOW HAS ADVECTED COOLER AND
DRIER AIR INTO THE REGION...WITH TEMPERATURES RUNNING NEARLY 10
DEGREES BELOW THOSE OBSERVED YESTERDAY. SHORT-WAVE RIDGE WILL BUILD
IN OVERNIGHT...RESULTING IN MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS. THIS
WILL PROMOTE EFFICIENT RADIATIONAL COOLING AND TEMPERATURES NEAR OR
EVEN SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL.

REBOUND IN TEMPERATURES IS EXPECTED THURSDAY AS A SHORT-WAVE RIDGE
IN THE SUBTROPICAL EASTERN PACIFIC BUILDS EASTWARD. ATTENTION WILL
THEN TURN TO A DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM ALONG THE WEST COAST
FRIDAY. BIGGEST IMPACT ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA WILL BE AN INCREASE
IN WIND AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM. WINDS WILL BE STRONGEST ACROSS SE CA
WHERE GUSTS TO 35 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE AND UP TO 30 MPH ACROSS
SOUTH-CENTRAL AZ INCLUDING THE PHOENIX METRO AREA.

&&

.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
THE MODELS ARE ALL NOW SHOWING VERY SHARP HEIGHT FALLS AND
TEMPERATURE DROPS AS THIS SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH...WITH 500MB HEIGHTS
OVER THE PHX AREA FALLING FROM AROUND 572DM ON FRIDAY AFTERNOON TO
AROUND 550-552DM BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON...WITH 850MB TEMPERATURES
FALLING FROM AROUND 19C TO 7C DURING THE SAME PERIOD. ALTHOUGH THERE
WILL LIKELY NOT BE A WHOLE LOT OF MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THIS
SYSTEM...WITH PWATS ONLY BRIEFLY RISING INTO THE 0.75-0.85 INCH
RANGE...THE IMPRESSIVE DYNAMICS AND COOLING THAT THIS SYSTEM WILL
POSSESS WILL LIKELY PRODUCE AT LEAST SOME SHOWER ACTIVITY DURING THE
DAY ON SATURDAY ACROSS SOUTH-CENTRAL AZ ALONG AND JUST AHEAD OF THE
MAIN FRONT. HOWEVER...THE BIGGEST IMPACT FROM THIS SYSTEM WILL
LIKELY BE THE WINDS...WITH WIDESPREAD ADVISORY-LEVEL WINDS POSSIBLE
ON SATURDAY AS EFFICIENT MIXING WILL LIKELY ALLOW 35-40KT 700MB
WINDS TO BE BROUGHT ALL THE WAY DOWN TO THE SFC...WITH BLOWING DUST
LIKELY TO BE A PROBLEM AS WELL. AFTER ANOTHER DAY OF 90+ DEGREE
TEMPERATURES ON FRIDAY...IT NOW LOOK LIKELY THAT HIGHS WILL REMAIN
WELL DOWN IN THE 70S ON SATURDAY. SUNDAY LOOKS LIKE IT WILL BE A
MUCH QUIETER DAY AS THE SYSTEM MOVES OFF RAPIDLY TO THE EAST...WITH
HIGHS REBOUNDING INTO THE LOW 80S ACROSS THE LOWER DESERTS UNDER
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES...WITH JUST SOME AFTERNOON WESTERLY BREEZES.

MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...
ALTHOUGH THERE ARE DIFFERENCES BETWEEN THE MODELS...WITH THE EURO
BEING THE SLOWEST/COOLEST AND THE GEM BEING THE
FASTEST/WARMEST...THEY ALL ARE ATTEMPTING TO REBUILD RIDGING BACK
NORTHWARD OVER THE REGION FOR THE EARLY AND MIDDLE PART OF NEXT
WEEK...WITH TEMPERATURES WARMING BACK UP WELL INTO THE 90S UNDER
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES. HOWEVER...WIDESPREAD TRIPLE-DIGIT TEMPERATURES
DO NOT APPEAR LIKELY AT THIS TIME...SINCE LONG-WAVE TROUGHING OVER
THE CENTRAL CONUS SHOULD KEEP OUR UPPER-LEVEL FLOW A NORTHWESTERLY
ONE.

&&

.AVIATION...
SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA INCLUDING KPHX...KIWA...AND KSDL...
WEST WINDS AROUND 12G20KTS WILL PREVAIL AT ALL PHOENIX SITES THROUGH
LATE AFTERNOON BUT SHOULD RELAX QUICKLY AFTER SUNSET. FROM
THERE...EXPECT THE USUAL EASTERLY DRIFT TO KICK IN AROUND MIDNIGHT
WITH LIGHT SPEEDS THROUGH AT LEAST 18Z THURSDAY.

SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA/SOUTHWEST ARIZONA INCLUDING KIPL AND KBLH...
NORTHWEST GUSTY WINDS WILL GRADUALLY BACK TO THE WEST LATER THIS
AFTERNOON AND RELAX AFTER 03Z WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING.
ASIDE FROM A FEW HIGH CLOUDS SKIES SHOULD BE CLEAR. NO AVIATION
CONCERNS.

AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDED TAFS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...
UPPER LOW WILL APPROACH THE AREA FRIDAY AND MOVE THROUGH THE AREA ON
SATURDAY. WINDS WILL ONCE AGAIN BE GUSTY ACROSS THE ENTIRE REGION ON
SATURDAY...HOWEVER MOISTURE WILL BE ON THE INCREASE AND TEMPERATURES
WILL BE SUBSTANTIALLY COOLER THAN NORMAL...THUS CRITICAL THRESHOLDS
SHOULD NOT BE REALIZED. MUCH LIGHTER WINDS ARE EXPECTED FROM SUNDAY
ONWARD ALTHOUGH TEMPERATURES WILL SLOWLY RECOVER BACK TOWARD NORMAL
VALUES. RECOVERIES WILL GRADUALLY DETERIORATE AS THE WEEK
PROGRESSES.

&&

.PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

AZ...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM FRIDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING
     AZZ020-025.

CA...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM FRIDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING
     CAZ031.

$$

VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/PHOENIX

DISCUSSION...HIRSCH
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...PERCHA
AVIATION....LEINS
FIRE WEATHER...LEINS






000
FXUS65 KTWC 232110
AFDTWC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ
210 PM MST WED APR 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...BREEZY TO LOCALLY WINDY CONDITIONS TODAY AS A LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES NORTH OF THE AREA. EXPECT LESS WIND ON
THURSDAY...THEN WINDS WILL INCREASE FRIDAY AND BECOME STRONG AND
GUSTY SATURDAY AS A STRONGER SYSTEM MOVES ACROSS THE AREA. THERE
WILL BE A CHANCE OF VALLEY RAIN AND HIGH ELEVATION SNOW SHOWERS
SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT. DRY AND WARMER NEXT WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...UPPER TROF PUSHING THROUGH THE STATE TODAY HAS BROUGHT
BREEZY TO VERY LOCALIZED WINDY CONDITIONS TO THE AREA ALONG WITH
COOLER DAYTIME TEMPERATURES. AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES WERE RUNNING 5-8
DEGREES COOLER THAN TUESDAY.

LESS WIND THURSDAY BUT STILL GUSTY AT TIMES EAST OF TUCSON IN NW-SE
ORIENTED VALLEYS. HIGHS WILL BE 2-4 DEGREES WARMER THAN TODAY.

FRIDAY...SW FLOW ALOFT INCREASES IN ADVANCE OF STRONG UPPER LEVEL
TROF MOVING INTO THE WEST COAST. BREEZY TO LOCALLY WINDY WITH HIGHS
SIMILAR TO THURSDAY. FIRE WEATHER ISSUES ARE ADDRESSED BELOW.

SATURDAY...ABOVE MENTIONED STRONG UPPER TROF TO SWING THROUGH THE
STATE BRINGING GUSTY WINDS...AREAS OF BLOWING DUST...A CHANCE OF
VALLEY RAIN AND MOUNTAIN SNOW SHOWERS AND MUCH COOLER TEMPERATURES.
FIRE WEATHER ISSUES ARE ADDRESSED BELOW. MAY EVENTUALLY NEED A WIND
ADVISORY FOR THE EASTERN ZONES. SNOW LEVEL BY LATE SATURDAY
AFTERNOON ARE FORECAST TO BE BETWEEN 6K-6.5KFT NORTH TO NEAR 9KFT
FAR SE. WET SNOW ABOVE 7000 FEET IN THE MOUNTAINS FROM TUCSON NE
INTO THE WHITES WITH A COUPLE OF INCHES POSSIBLE IN THE WHITES.
HIGHS WITH BE 5-17 DEGREES COLDER THAN FRIDAY...WITH THE BIGGEST
CHANGES OCCURRING WEST AND NORTH OF TUCSON. A GOOD ANALOG YEAR THAT
WAS SIMILAR TO THE UPCOMING STORM WAS THE ONE THAT HIT THE STATE
ABOUT THE SAME TIME IN 1994

SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING...SHOWERS ENDING AS SYSTEM MOVES
THROUGH NEW MEXICO. MUCH COLDER AIR MASS AREAWIDE. LOOKING AT 20S
AND 30S IN THE MOUNTAINS WITH A FEW LOWER ELEVATION AREAS OF
GRAHAM...COCHISE AND SANTA CRUZ COUNTIES BETWEEN 30 AND 34 DEGREES.

SUNDAY...A LITTLE WARMER UNDER DRY/COOL NW FLOW ALOFT.

MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...WARMING TREND AS UPPER HIGH BUILDS INTO
THE WEST COAST. ARIZONA WILL BE UNDER DRY NLY FLOW ALOFT.

&&

.AVIATION...SFC WIND WLY 12-20 KTS WITH GUSTS UP TO 30 KTS UNTIL
24/03Z THEN BCMG LGT GENERALLY LESS THAN 10 KTS. OTHERWISE...SCT
CIRRUS CLOUDS ABOVE 20K FT AGL. AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR
TAF AMENDMENTS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE MOVING ACROSS THE STATE
TODAY HAS BROUGHT GUSTY WEST WINDS TO THE AREA WITH SUSTAINED 20
FOOT WINDS GENERALLY IN THE 10-20 MPH RANGE. WITH VERY DRY SURFACE
REGIME MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER
SINGLE DIGITS TO THE TEENS. THERE WILL BE A FEW PLACES EAST OF
TUCSON NEAR RED FLAG CRITERIA INTO EARLY THIS EVENING...BUT
DURATIONS NOT LONG ENOUGH TO BE A CONCERN.

SOMEWHAT LESS WIND WILL OCCUR THURSDAY...THEN WINDS WILL INCREASE
AGAIN FRIDAY AND BECOME STRONG AND GUSTY SATURDAY AS ANOTHER LOW
PRESSURE TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE AREA. CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER
CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE BOTH FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. MOISTURE WILL BE
ON THE INCREASE ON SATURDAY...SO FRIDAY MAY END UP BEING THE DAY FOR
A WATCH. A FIRE WEATHER WATCH MAY BE POSTED WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

ISOLATED TO SCATTERED VALLEY SHOWERS AND MOUNTAIN SNOW SHOWERS
SATURDAY/SATURDAY EVENING. THERE WILL STILL BE SOME BREEZINESS
SUNDAY...THEN LESS WIND SHOULD OCCUR MONDAY AND TUESDAY AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE AREA.

&&

.TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...YOUTUBE...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/TUCSON







000
FXUS65 KTWC 231645
AFDTWC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ
945 AM MST WED APR 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...BREEZY TO LOCALLY WINDY CONDITIONS AND SOME BLOWING DUST
WILL OCCUR THIS AFTERNOON AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES NORTH
OF THE AREA. EXPECT LESS WIND THURSDAY...THEN WINDS WILL INCREASE
FRIDAY AND BECOME STRONG AND GUSTY SATURDAY AS A STRONGER SYSTEM
MOVES ACROSS THE AREA. A FEW MAINLY MOUNTAIN SHOWERS NORTHEAST OF
TUCSON WILL BE POSSIBLE SATURDAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...UPPER TROF PUSHING THROUGH THE STATE TODAY WILL BRING
BREEZY TO VERY LOCALIZED WINDY CONDITIONS TO THE AREA ALONG WITH
COOLER DAYTIME TEMPERATURES. ANY FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS FOR TODAY ARE
ADDRESSED IN THE FIRE WEATHER SECTION BELOW.

SATURDAY STILL LOOKING VERY WINDY ACROSS THE AREA. MORE ON THIS IN
THE AFTERNOON DISCUSSION.

&&

.AVIATION...SURFACE WIND LESS THAN 10 KTS EARLY THIS MORNING.
SURFACE WIND WILL THEN BECOME WLY 15-20 KTS WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 30
KTS THIS AFTERNOON. OTHERWISE...SCT CIRRUS CLOUDS ABOVE 20K FT AGL
THRU THE DAY. AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR TAF AMENDMENTS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE EASTWARD ACROSS
THE STATE TODAY. THIS SYSTEM WILL BRING GUSTY WEST WINDS THIS
AFTERNOON AND EARLY THIS EVENING. SUSTAINED 20 FOOT WINDS WILL
GENERALLY BE 10-20 MPH. A VERY DRY SURFACE REGIME WILL PREVAIL WITH
MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES RANGING FROM THE UPPER SINGLE
DIGITS TO THE TEENS. COULD SEE A FEW PLACES NEAR THE NEW MEXICO
BORDER FLIRTING WITH RED FLAG CRITERIA THIS AFTERNOON...BUT
DURATIONS NOT LONG ENOUGH TO BE A CONCERN.

SOMEWHAT LESS WIND WILL OCCUR THURSDAY...THEN WINDS WILL INCREASE
AGAIN FRIDAY AND BECOME STRONG AND GUSTY SATURDAY AS ANOTHER LOW
PRESSURE TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE AREA. THERE APPEARS TO BE AN
INCREASED LIKELIHOOD OF WIDESPREAD CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS
SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND SATURDAY EVENING ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM.
THAT SAID...A FIRE WEATHER WATCH MAY BE REQUIRED DURING THE NEXT 12
TO 24 HOURS FOR SATURDAY...IF MODELS CONTINUE TO ADVERTISE STRONG
WINDS WITH THIS SYSTEM.

A FEW SHOWERS MAY OCCUR SATURDAY IN THE WHITE MOUNTAINS BUT DRY
CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE ELSEWHERE. THERE WILL STILL BE SOME
BREEZINESS SUNDAY...THEN LESS WIND SHOULD OCCUR MONDAY AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE AREA.

&&

.TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...YOUTUBE...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/TUCSON







000
FXUS65 KFGZ 231634
AFDFGZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ
925 AM MST WED APR 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...FAIR AND MILD CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST THROUGH THURSDAY.
A STRONG AND COLD LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BRING WINDY CONDITIONS
FRIDAY. ON SATURDAY...STRONG WINDS CONTINUE WITH COLD TEMPERATURES
AND A GOOD CHANCE OF RAIN AND SNOW.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
UPDATED TODAYS SKY COVER TO INCREASE CLOUDINESS...OTHERWISE NO
CHANGES.

&&

.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...335 AM. A FAIRLY BENIGN WEATHER SITUATION
WILL DEVELOP FOR THE NEXT TWO DAYS IN THE WAKE OF A DRY COLD FRONT
THAT MOVED THROUGH THE AREA ON TUESDAY. WIND SPEEDS WILL DECREASE
TODAY...WITH THE HIGHEST WINDS STAYING WELL EAST OF FLAGSTAFF...NEAR
THE NEW MEXICO BORDER. ADVISORY LEVELS SPEEDS ARE NOT ANTICIPATED.
LESS WIND IS EXPECTED THURSDAY AS A LOW AMPLITUDE S/WV RIDGE MOVES
THROUGH THE SOUTHWEST.

BY FRIDAY...WINDS WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE ACROSS THE REGION AND WIND
PRODUCTS WILL BE TOUGH TO AVOID. THIS IS IN ADVANCE OF A COLD LATE
SEASON LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM...WHICH IS TRENDING FARTHER AND FARTHER
SOUTHWEST WHICH EACH MODEL RUN. CURRENT MODELS ARE ACTUALLY IN FAIR
AGREEMENT WITH THIS STORM...INCLUDING THE NEW TRENDS...TIMING AND
PLACEMENT. 500MB TEMPERATURES AS COLD AS -27C WILL MOVE THROUGH
CENTRAL ARIZONA SATURDAY...WITH SNOW LEVELS FALLING TO 6000 FEET.
MODEL QPF SUPPORTS SEVERAL INCHES OF SNOW ABOVE 7000 FEET...WITH
LIGHT TO MODERATE RAINFALL SOUTH OF THE RIM AT LOWER ELEVATIONS.

WE HAVE RAISED POPS AND INTRODUCED SOME SNOWFALL TO THE HIGH
COUNTRY. THE SHEAR AND ABNORMALLY COLD MID-LEVEL TEMPERATURES WITH
THIS STORM WILL ALSO SUPPORT AT LEAST SCATTERED CONVECTION...WITH
AT LEAST A LOW PROBABILITY OF SEVERE CONVECTION. RECORD SNOWFALL
AMOUNTS FOR FLAGSTAFF FOR APRIL 26TH HAVE HAD SEVERAL OCCURRENCES
ABOVE 5 INCHES...WITH THE RECORD AT 8.5 INCHES. IT DOES NOT LOOK
LIKE A RECORD SNOWFALL EVENT AT THIS TIME...BUT IT WILL BE ENOUGH
TO SUBSTANTIALLY AFFECT HIGHWAY TRAVEL DURING THE DAY SATURDAY. STAY
TUNED FOR UPDATES IN THE COMING DAYS FOR YOUR WEEKEND FORECAST.

THE SYSTEM EJECT FAIRLY RAPIDLY SUNDAY...WITH RIDGING RETURNING FOR
EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 18Z PACKAGE...EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS OVER THE
NEXT 24 HOURS UNDER VARIABLE HIGH CLOUDS. 18Z-02Z...WINDS BCMG
SW-W10-20G30KTS. AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDMENTS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...TODAY AND THURSDAY...DRY CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL
WITH BREEZY AFTERNOONS.

FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM FROM OVER THE PACIFIC
WILL APPROACH ARIZONA WITH INCREASING WINDS ON FRIDAY THEN MOVE
ACROSS THE AREA STARTING SATURDAY WITH WINDY CONDITIONS. RAIN AND
SNOW WILL BECOME LIKELY FOR MOST HIGHER ELEVATIONS LATE FRIDAY NIGHT
AND SATURDAY WITH A CHANCE AT LOWER ELEVATIONS. CRITICAL FIRE
WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER PORTIONS OF NORTHERN
ARIZONA ON FRIDAY.

.FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC.........DL / PETERSON
AVIATION.......DB
FIRE WEATHER...MAS

FOR NORTHERN ARIZONA WEATHER INFORMATION VISIT
WEATHER.GOV/FLAGSTAFF








000
FXUS65 KPSR 231617
AFDPSR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PHOENIX AZ
915 AM MST WED APR 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
THE WEATHER DISTURBANCE THAT BROUGHT GUSTY WINDS AND AREAS OF
BLOWING DUST TO THE REGION ON TUESDAY IS EXPECTED TO BRING COOLER
TEMPERATURES TODAY AS IT MOVES OFF TO THE EAST. WARMER TEMPERATURES
WILL MAKE A RETURN THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. ANOTHER...MUCH STRONGER LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL THEN AFFECT THE REGION FROM FRIDAY ONWARD INTO
THE UPCOMING WEEKEND. BREEZY TO WINDY CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED
ALONG WITH MUCH COOLER TEMPERATURES ON SATURDAY. THERE IS ALSO A
CHANCE OF SHOWERS LATE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY NIGHT...MAINLY FOR
THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING
BACK NORTHWARD OVER THE WESTERN US IS THEN EXPECTED TO BRING WARMER
TEMPERATURES FOR THE EARLY AND MIDDLE PARTS OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
ANOTHER MORE COMPACT SHORT-WAVE TROUGH IS EVIDENT IN WV IMAGERY
ACROSS NW AZ. THIS SYSTEM WILL MOVE RAPIDLY EASTWARD...BRINGING A
REINFORCING SHOT OF DRIER AIR TO THE REGION TODAY. OBSERVATIONS
INDICATE THAT SURFACE DEWPOINTS ARE ALREADY AS LOW AS THE TEENS IN
THE PHOENIX METRO AREA. STILL EXPECTING COOLER TEMPERATURES
TODAY...AS MUCH AS 10 DEGREES LOWER THAN THOSE OBSERVED YESTERDAY.
FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK AND ONLY MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO THE
SHORT-TERM TEMPERATURES ARE ANTICIPATED.

&&


.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...
THE DRY COOL FRONT THAT BROUGHT OUR CWA GUSTY WINDS...PATCHY BLOWING
DUST...AND HIGH FIRE DANGER ON TUESDAY HAS FINALLY PUSHED INTO
SOUTHEASTERN AZ THIS MORNING. THE MAIN IMPACTS FROM THIS FRONT TODAY
WILL BE SOMEWHAT COOLER TEMPERATURES AND LOWER DEWPOINTS...ALONG
WITH SOME GUSTY AFTERNOON BREEZES ACROSS SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH-CENTRAL
AZ. CURRENT FORECAST SOUNDINGS FOR THE PHX AREA ARE INDICATING THAT
850MB TEMPS WILL DROP FROM YESTERDAY`S 22C TO AROUND 17C BY THIS
AFTERNOON...WHICH SHOULD RESULT IN ABOUT 8-10 DEGREES OF COOLING AT
THE SFC...WITH HIGHS REMAINING MOSTLY IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S
TODAY...WHICH IS NOW RIGHT AROUND NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.
NIGHTTIME LOWS TONIGHT SHOULD ALSO BE NOTICEABLY COOLER...WITH MOST
OUTLYING LOWER DESERT LOCATIONS SEEING LOWS IN THE 50S UNDER MOSTLY
CLEAR SKIES. WEAK RIDGING AHEAD OF THE NEXT UPPER TROF IS THEN
EXPECTED TO BRING SOMEWHAT WARMER TEMPERATURES ON THURSDAY...WITH
LOWER DESERT HIGHS PUSHING BACK INTO THE LOW TO MID 90S.

FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...
THE NEXT PACIFIC SYSTEM THAT WILL BE AFFECTING OUR AREA FROM FRIDAY
ONWARD INTO THE WEEKEND CAN ALREADY BE SEEN ON LATEST IR SATELLITE
IMAGERY JUST BEGINNING TO MOVE SOUTHWARD FROM THE GULF OF ALASKA
INTO THE EASTERN PACIFIC. THE LATEST GFS...EURO...AND GEM HAVE NOW
COME INTO VERY GOOD AGREEMENT THAT THIS NEXT SYSTEM WILL BE THE
STRONGEST SYSTEM THAT WE HAVE SEEN FOR A WHILE. THEY ALL NOW MOVE A
RATHER ROBUST...AND COLD UPPER LOW INLAND OVER CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN
CA BY LATE FRIDAY EVENING AND EARLY SATURDAY...THEN ACROSS NORTHERN
ARIZONA DURING THE DAY ON SATURDAY...AND INTO NEW MEXICO BY SUNDAY
MORNING.

THE MODELS ARE ALL NOW SHOWING VERY SHARP HEIGHT FALLS AND
TEMPERATURE DROPS AS THIS SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH...WITH 500MB HEIGHTS
OVER THE PHX AREA FALLING FROM AROUND 572DM ON FRIDAY AFTERNOON TO
AROUND 550-552DM BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON...WITH 850MB TEMPERATURES
FALLING FROM AROUND 19C TO 7C DURING THE SAME PERIOD. ALTHOUGH THERE
WILL LIKELY NOT BE A WHOLE LOT OF MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THIS
SYSTEM...WITH PWATS ONLY BRIEFLY RISING INTO THE 0.75-0.85 INCH
RANGE...THE IMPRESSIVE DYNAMICS AND COOLING THAT THIS SYSTEM WILL
POSSESS WILL LIKELY PRODUCE AT LEAST SOME SHOWER ACTIVITY DURING THE
DAY ON SATURDAY ACROSS SOUTH-CENTRAL AZ ALONG AND JUST AHEAD OF THE
MAIN FRONT. HOWEVER...THE BIGGEST IMPACT FROM THIS SYSTEM WILL
LIKELY BE THE WINDS...WITH WIDESPREAD ADVISORY-LEVEL WINDS POSSIBLE
ON SATURDAY AS EFFICIENT MIXING WILL LIKELY ALLOW 35-40KT 700MB
WINDS TO BE BROUGHT ALL THE WAY DOWN TO THE SFC...WITH BLOWING DUST
LIKELY TO BE A PROBLEM AS WELL. AFTER ANOTHER DAY OF 90+ DEGREE
TEMPERATURES ON FRIDAY...IT NOW LOOK LIKELY THAT HIGHS WILL REMAIN
WELL DOWN IN THE 70S ON SATURDAY. SUNDAY LOOKS LIKE IT WILL BE A
MUCH QUIETER DAY AS THE SYSTEM MOVES OFF RAPIDLY TO THE EAST...WITH
HIGHS REBOUNDING INTO THE LOW 80S ACROSS THE LOWER DESERTS UNDER
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES...WITH JUST SOME AFTERNOON WESTERLY BREEZES.

MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...
ALTHOUGH THERE ARE DIFFERENCES BETWEEN THE MODELS...WITH THE EURO
BEING THE SLOWEST/COOLEST AND THE GEM BEING THE
FASTEST/WARMEST...THEY ALL ARE ATTEMPTING TO REBUILD RIDGING BACK
NORTHWARD OVER THE REGION FOR THE EARLY AND MIDDLE PART OF NEXT
WEEK...WITH TEMPERATURES WARMING BACK UP WELL INTO THE 90S UNDER
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES. HOWEVER...WIDESPREAD TRIPLE-DIGIT TEMPERATURES
DO NOT APPEAR LIKELY AT THIS TIME...SINCE LONG-WAVE TROUGHING OVER
THE CENTRAL CONUS SHOULD KEEP OUR UPPER-LEVEL FLOW A NORTHWESTERLY
ONE.

&&

.AVIATION...
SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA INCLUDING KPHX...KIWA...AND KSDL...
NO SIGNIFICANT AVIATION CONCERNS THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING...WITH
TIMING OF WIND SHIFTS THE PRIMARY FORECAST CHALLENGE. WITH FAIRLY
GOOD CONFIDENCE...A PERIOD OF VARIABLE SFC WINDS WILL PREVAIL THIS
MORNING DESPITE A PERSISTENT WEST 5-10KT WINDS 2K-4K ABOVE THE
GROUND. EVENTUALLY LATE THIS MORNING...WLY WINDS WILL MIX TO THE
GROUND. THERE MAY BE A PERIOD OF A FEW HIGHER GUSTS UP TO
20KT...THOUGH THESE CONDITIONS SHOULD BE MORE TEMPORALLY LIMITED.

SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA/SOUTHWEST ARIZONA INCLUDING KIPL AND KBLH...
SFC WINDS WILL EVENTUALLY VEER TO A MORE NLY DIRECTION THIS
MORNING...AND CONFIDENCE IS FAIRLY GOOD THAT A FEW HIGHER GUSTS WILL
MATERIALIZE BY LATE MORNING (PARTICULARLY AT KBLH). NO OTHER
AVIATION CONCERNS AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WEAKENS BY LATE
AFTERNOON...AND SFC WINDS FALL BACK TO AROUND 5KT AND BECOME MORE
WLY IN DIRECTION WITH NOCTURNAL DECOUPLING.

AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDED TAFS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...
A VERY STRONG UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL APPROACH THE AREA ON FRIDAY AND
MOVE THROUGH THE DISTRICTS ON SATURDAY. AHEAD OF THIS WEATHER
SYSTEM...WINDS WILL INCREASE AND BECOME FREQUENTLY GUSTY FRIDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THE STRONGEST WINDS FRIDAY WILL BE
EXPERIENCED ACROSS SE CALIFORNIA AND THE LOWER COLORADO RIVER
VALLEY...AND ITS POSSIBLE CRITICAL THRESHOLDS MAY BE MET.
TEMPERATURES ON SATURDAY WILL PLUMMET TO WELL BELOW NORMAL
LEVELS...AND HUMIDITY LEVELS WILL INCREASE (ALONG WITH A POSSIBILITY
OF LIGHT RAIN). THIS MAY OTHERWISE LIMIT A MUCH HIGHER FIRE
DANGER...BECAUSE WINDS SATURDAY ACROSS THE ENTIRE REGION WILL BE
UNUSUALLY STRONG FOR MUCH OF THE DAY (LIKELY GUSTING AOA 40 MPH).
COOLER WEATHER WILL LINGER SUNDAY WITH A WARMING TREND EARLY NEXT
WEEK. AS TEMPERATURES RECOVER NEXT WEEK...AFTERNOON HUMIDITIES WILL
ONCE AGAIN DROP INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS WITH ONLY FAIR OVERNIGHT
RECOVERY.

&&

.PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

AZ...NONE.

CA...NONE.

&&

$$

VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/PHOENIX

DISCUSSION...HIRSCH
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...PERCHA
AVIATION....MO
FIRE WEATHER...LEINS/MO










000
FXUS65 KPSR 231136
AFDPSR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PHOENIX AZ
435 AM MST WED APR 23 2014

...UPDATED AVIATION AND FIRE WEATHER...

.SYNOPSIS...
THE WEATHER DISTURBANCE THAT BROUGHT GUSTY WINDS AND AREAS OF
BLOWING DUST TO THE REGION ON TUESDAY IS EXPECTED TO BRING COOLER
TEMPERATURES TODAY AS IT MOVES OFF TO THE EAST. WARMER TEMPERATURES
WILL MAKE A RETURN THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. ANOTHER...MUCH STRONGER LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL THEN AFFECT THE REGION FROM FRIDAY ONWARD INTO
THE UPCOMING WEEKEND. BREEZY TO WINDY CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED
ALONG WITH MUCH COOLER TEMPERATURES ON SATURDAY. THERE IS ALSO A
CHANCE OF SHOWERS LATE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY NIGHT...MAINLY FOR
THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING
BACK NORTHWARD OVER THE WESTERN US IS THEN EXPECTED TO BRING WARMER
TEMPERATURES FOR THE EARLY AND MIDDLE PARTS OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...
THE DRY COOL FRONT THAT BROUGHT OUR CWA GUSTY WINDS...PATCHY BLOWING
DUST...AND HIGH FIRE DANGER ON TUESDAY HAS FINALLY PUSHED INTO
SOUTHEASTERN AZ THIS MORNING. THE MAIN IMPACTS FROM THIS FRONT TODAY
WILL BE SOMEWHAT COOLER TEMPERATURES AND LOWER DEWPOINTS...ALONG
WITH SOME GUSTY AFTERNOON BREEZES ACROSS SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH-CENTRAL
AZ. CURRENT FORECAST SOUNDINGS FOR THE PHX AREA ARE INDICATING THAT
850MB TEMPS WILL DROP FROM YESTERDAY`S 22C TO AROUND 17C BY THIS
AFTERNOON...WHICH SHOULD RESULT IN ABOUT 8-10 DEGREES OF COOLING AT
THE SFC...WITH HIGHS REMAINING MOSTLY IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S
TODAY...WHICH IS NOW RIGHT AROUND NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.
NIGHTTIME LOWS TONIGHT SHOULD ALSO BE NOTICEABLY COOLER...WITH MOST
OUTLYING LOWER DESERT LOCATIONS SEEING LOWS IN THE 50S UNDER MOSTLY
CLEAR SKIES. WEAK RIDGING AHEAD OF THE NEXT UPPER TROF IS THEN
EXPECTED TO BRING SOMEWHAT WARMER TEMPERATURES ON THURSDAY...WITH
LOWER DESERT HIGHS PUSHING BACK INTO THE LOW TO MID 90S.

FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...
THE NEXT PACIFIC SYSTEM THAT WILL BE AFFECTING OUR AREA FROM FRIDAY
ONWARD INTO THE WEEKEND CAN ALREADY BE SEEN ON LATEST IR SATELLITE
IMAGERY JUST BEGINNING TO MOVE SOUTHWARD FROM THE GULF OF ALASKA
INTO THE EASTERN PACIFIC. THE LATEST GFS...EURO...AND GEM HAVE NOW
COME INTO VERY GOOD AGREEMENT THAT THIS NEXT SYSTEM WILL BE THE
STRONGEST SYSTEM THAT WE HAVE SEEN FOR A WHILE. THEY ALL NOW MOVE A
RATHER ROBUST...AND COLD UPPER LOW INLAND OVER CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN
CA BY LATE FRIDAY EVENING AND EARLY SATURDAY...THEN ACROSS NORTHERN
ARIZONA DURING THE DAY ON SATURDAY...AND INTO NEW MEXICO BY SUNDAY
MORNING.

THE MODELS ARE ALL NOW SHOWING VERY SHARP HEIGHT FALLS AND
TEMPERATURE DROPS AS THIS SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH...WITH 500MB HEIGHTS
OVER THE PHX AREA FALLING FROM AROUND 572DM ON FRIDAY AFTERNOON TO
AROUND 550-552DM BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON...WITH 850MB TEMPERATURES
FALLING FROM AROUND 19C TO 7C DURING THE SAME PERIOD. ALTHOUGH THERE
WILL LIKELY NOT BE A WHOLE LOT OF MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THIS
SYSTEM...WITH PWATS ONLY BRIEFLY RISING INTO THE 0.75-0.85 INCH
RANGE...THE IMPRESSIVE DYNAMICS AND COOLING THAT THIS SYSTEM WILL
POSSESS WILL LIKELY PRODUCE AT LEAST SOME SHOWER ACTIVITY DURING THE
DAY ON SATURDAY ACROSS SOUTH-CENTRAL AZ ALONG AND JUST AHEAD OF THE
MAIN FRONT. HOWEVER...THE BIGGEST IMPACT FROM THIS SYSTEM WILL
LIKELY BE THE WINDS...WITH WIDESPREAD ADVISORY-LEVEL WINDS POSSIBLE
ON SATURDAY AS EFFICIENT MIXING WILL LIKELY ALLOW 35-40KT 700MB
WINDS TO BE BROUGHT ALL THE WAY DOWN TO THE SFC...WITH BLOWING DUST
LIKELY TO BE A PROBLEM AS WELL. AFTER ANOTHER DAY OF 90+ DEGREE
TEMPERATURES ON FRIDAY...IT NOW LOOK LIKELY THAT HIGHS WILL REMAIN
WELL DOWN IN THE 70S ON SATURDAY. SUNDAY LOOKS LIKE IT WILL BE A
MUCH QUIETER DAY AS THE SYSTEM MOVES OFF RAPIDLY TO THE EAST...WITH
HIGHS REBOUNDING INTO THE LOW 80S ACROSS THE LOWER DESERTS UNDER
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES...WITH JUST SOME AFTERNOON WESTERLY BREEZES.

MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...
ALTHOUGH THERE ARE DIFFERENCES BETWEEN THE MODELS...WITH THE EURO
BEING THE SLOWEST/COOLEST AND THE GEM BEING THE
FASTEST/WARMEST...THEY ALL ARE ATTEMPTING TO REBUILD RIDGING BACK
NORTHWARD OVER THE REGION FOR THE EARLY AND MIDDLE PART OF NEXT
WEEK...WITH TEMPERATURES WARMING BACK UP WELL INTO THE 90S UNDER
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES. HOWEVER...WIDESPREAD TRIPLE-DIGIT TEMPERATURES
DO NOT APPEAR LIKELY AT THIS TIME...SINCE LONG-WAVE TROUGHING OVER
THE CENTRAL CONUS SHOULD KEEP OUR UPPER-LEVEL FLOW A NORTHWESTERLY
ONE.

&&

.AVIATION...
SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA INCLUDING KPHX...KIWA...AND KSDL...
NO SIGNIFICANT AVIATION CONCERNS THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING...WITH
TIMING OF WIND SHIFTS THE PRIMARY FORECAST CHALLENGE. WITH FAIRLY
GOOD CONFIDENCE...A PERIOD OF VARIABLE SFC WINDS WILL PREVAIL THIS
MORNING DESPITE A PERSISTENT WEST 5-10KT WINDS 2K-4K ABOVE THE
GROUND. EVENTUALLY LATE THIS MORNING...WLY WINDS WILL MIX TO THE
GROUND. THERE MAY BE A PERIOD OF A FEW HIGHER GUSTS UP TO
20KT...THOUGH THESE CONDITIONS SHOULD BE MORE TEMPORALLY LIMITED.

SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA/SOUTHWEST ARIZONA INCLUDING KIPL AND KBLH...
SFC WINDS WILL EVENTUALLY VEER TO A MORE NLY DIRECTION THIS
MORNING...AND CONFIDENCE IS FAIRLY GOOD THAT A FEW HIGHER GUSTS WILL
MATERIALIZE BY LATE MORNING (PARTICULARLY AT KBLH). NO OTHER
AVIATION CONCERNS AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WEAKENS BY LATE
AFTERNOON...AND SFC WINDS FALL BACK TO AROUND 5KT AND BECOME MORE
WLY IN DIRECTION WITH NOCTURNAL DECOUPLING.

AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDED TAFS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...
A VERY STRONG UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL APPROACH THE AREA ON FRIDAY AND
MOVE THROUGH THE DISTRICTS ON SATURDAY. AHEAD OF THIS WEATHER
SYSTEM...WINDS WILL INCREASE AND BECOME FREQUENTLY GUSTY FRIDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THE STRONGEST WINDS FRIDAY WILL BE
EXPERIENCED ACROSS SE CALIFORNIA AND THE LOWER COLORADO RIVER
VALLEY...AND ITS POSSIBLE CRITICAL THRESHOLDS MAY BE MET.
TEMPERATURES ON SATURDAY WILL PLUMMET TO WELL BELOW NORMAL
LEVELS...AND HUMIDITY LEVELS WILL INCREASE (ALONG WITH A POSSIBILITY
OF LIGHT RAIN). THIS MAY OTHERWISE LIMIT A MUCH HIGHER FIRE
DANGER...BECAUSE WINDS SATURDAY ACROSS THE ENTIRE REGION WILL BE
UNUSUALLY STRONG FOR MUCH OF THE DAY (LIKELY GUSTING AOA 40 MPH).
COOLER WEATHER WILL LINGER SUNDAY WITH A WARMING TREND EARLY NEXT
WEEK. AS TEMPERATURES RECOVER NEXT WEEK...AFTERNOON HUMIDITIES WILL
ONCE AGAIN DROP INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS WITH ONLY FAIR OVERNIGHT
RECOVERY.

&&

.PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

AZ...NONE.

CA...NONE.

&&

$$

VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/PHOENIX

DISCUSSION...PERCHA
AVIATION....MO
FIRE WEATHER...LEINS/MO






000
FXUS65 KPSR 231136
AFDPSR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PHOENIX AZ
435 AM MST WED APR 23 2014

...UPDATED AVIATION AND FIRE WEATHER...

.SYNOPSIS...
THE WEATHER DISTURBANCE THAT BROUGHT GUSTY WINDS AND AREAS OF
BLOWING DUST TO THE REGION ON TUESDAY IS EXPECTED TO BRING COOLER
TEMPERATURES TODAY AS IT MOVES OFF TO THE EAST. WARMER TEMPERATURES
WILL MAKE A RETURN THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. ANOTHER...MUCH STRONGER LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL THEN AFFECT THE REGION FROM FRIDAY ONWARD INTO
THE UPCOMING WEEKEND. BREEZY TO WINDY CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED
ALONG WITH MUCH COOLER TEMPERATURES ON SATURDAY. THERE IS ALSO A
CHANCE OF SHOWERS LATE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY NIGHT...MAINLY FOR
THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING
BACK NORTHWARD OVER THE WESTERN US IS THEN EXPECTED TO BRING WARMER
TEMPERATURES FOR THE EARLY AND MIDDLE PARTS OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...
THE DRY COOL FRONT THAT BROUGHT OUR CWA GUSTY WINDS...PATCHY BLOWING
DUST...AND HIGH FIRE DANGER ON TUESDAY HAS FINALLY PUSHED INTO
SOUTHEASTERN AZ THIS MORNING. THE MAIN IMPACTS FROM THIS FRONT TODAY
WILL BE SOMEWHAT COOLER TEMPERATURES AND LOWER DEWPOINTS...ALONG
WITH SOME GUSTY AFTERNOON BREEZES ACROSS SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH-CENTRAL
AZ. CURRENT FORECAST SOUNDINGS FOR THE PHX AREA ARE INDICATING THAT
850MB TEMPS WILL DROP FROM YESTERDAY`S 22C TO AROUND 17C BY THIS
AFTERNOON...WHICH SHOULD RESULT IN ABOUT 8-10 DEGREES OF COOLING AT
THE SFC...WITH HIGHS REMAINING MOSTLY IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S
TODAY...WHICH IS NOW RIGHT AROUND NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.
NIGHTTIME LOWS TONIGHT SHOULD ALSO BE NOTICEABLY COOLER...WITH MOST
OUTLYING LOWER DESERT LOCATIONS SEEING LOWS IN THE 50S UNDER MOSTLY
CLEAR SKIES. WEAK RIDGING AHEAD OF THE NEXT UPPER TROF IS THEN
EXPECTED TO BRING SOMEWHAT WARMER TEMPERATURES ON THURSDAY...WITH
LOWER DESERT HIGHS PUSHING BACK INTO THE LOW TO MID 90S.

FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...
THE NEXT PACIFIC SYSTEM THAT WILL BE AFFECTING OUR AREA FROM FRIDAY
ONWARD INTO THE WEEKEND CAN ALREADY BE SEEN ON LATEST IR SATELLITE
IMAGERY JUST BEGINNING TO MOVE SOUTHWARD FROM THE GULF OF ALASKA
INTO THE EASTERN PACIFIC. THE LATEST GFS...EURO...AND GEM HAVE NOW
COME INTO VERY GOOD AGREEMENT THAT THIS NEXT SYSTEM WILL BE THE
STRONGEST SYSTEM THAT WE HAVE SEEN FOR A WHILE. THEY ALL NOW MOVE A
RATHER ROBUST...AND COLD UPPER LOW INLAND OVER CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN
CA BY LATE FRIDAY EVENING AND EARLY SATURDAY...THEN ACROSS NORTHERN
ARIZONA DURING THE DAY ON SATURDAY...AND INTO NEW MEXICO BY SUNDAY
MORNING.

THE MODELS ARE ALL NOW SHOWING VERY SHARP HEIGHT FALLS AND
TEMPERATURE DROPS AS THIS SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH...WITH 500MB HEIGHTS
OVER THE PHX AREA FALLING FROM AROUND 572DM ON FRIDAY AFTERNOON TO
AROUND 550-552DM BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON...WITH 850MB TEMPERATURES
FALLING FROM AROUND 19C TO 7C DURING THE SAME PERIOD. ALTHOUGH THERE
WILL LIKELY NOT BE A WHOLE LOT OF MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THIS
SYSTEM...WITH PWATS ONLY BRIEFLY RISING INTO THE 0.75-0.85 INCH
RANGE...THE IMPRESSIVE DYNAMICS AND COOLING THAT THIS SYSTEM WILL
POSSESS WILL LIKELY PRODUCE AT LEAST SOME SHOWER ACTIVITY DURING THE
DAY ON SATURDAY ACROSS SOUTH-CENTRAL AZ ALONG AND JUST AHEAD OF THE
MAIN FRONT. HOWEVER...THE BIGGEST IMPACT FROM THIS SYSTEM WILL
LIKELY BE THE WINDS...WITH WIDESPREAD ADVISORY-LEVEL WINDS POSSIBLE
ON SATURDAY AS EFFICIENT MIXING WILL LIKELY ALLOW 35-40KT 700MB
WINDS TO BE BROUGHT ALL THE WAY DOWN TO THE SFC...WITH BLOWING DUST
LIKELY TO BE A PROBLEM AS WELL. AFTER ANOTHER DAY OF 90+ DEGREE
TEMPERATURES ON FRIDAY...IT NOW LOOK LIKELY THAT HIGHS WILL REMAIN
WELL DOWN IN THE 70S ON SATURDAY. SUNDAY LOOKS LIKE IT WILL BE A
MUCH QUIETER DAY AS THE SYSTEM MOVES OFF RAPIDLY TO THE EAST...WITH
HIGHS REBOUNDING INTO THE LOW 80S ACROSS THE LOWER DESERTS UNDER
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES...WITH JUST SOME AFTERNOON WESTERLY BREEZES.

MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...
ALTHOUGH THERE ARE DIFFERENCES BETWEEN THE MODELS...WITH THE EURO
BEING THE SLOWEST/COOLEST AND THE GEM BEING THE
FASTEST/WARMEST...THEY ALL ARE ATTEMPTING TO REBUILD RIDGING BACK
NORTHWARD OVER THE REGION FOR THE EARLY AND MIDDLE PART OF NEXT
WEEK...WITH TEMPERATURES WARMING BACK UP WELL INTO THE 90S UNDER
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES. HOWEVER...WIDESPREAD TRIPLE-DIGIT TEMPERATURES
DO NOT APPEAR LIKELY AT THIS TIME...SINCE LONG-WAVE TROUGHING OVER
THE CENTRAL CONUS SHOULD KEEP OUR UPPER-LEVEL FLOW A NORTHWESTERLY
ONE.

&&

.AVIATION...
SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA INCLUDING KPHX...KIWA...AND KSDL...
NO SIGNIFICANT AVIATION CONCERNS THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING...WITH
TIMING OF WIND SHIFTS THE PRIMARY FORECAST CHALLENGE. WITH FAIRLY
GOOD CONFIDENCE...A PERIOD OF VARIABLE SFC WINDS WILL PREVAIL THIS
MORNING DESPITE A PERSISTENT WEST 5-10KT WINDS 2K-4K ABOVE THE
GROUND. EVENTUALLY LATE THIS MORNING...WLY WINDS WILL MIX TO THE
GROUND. THERE MAY BE A PERIOD OF A FEW HIGHER GUSTS UP TO
20KT...THOUGH THESE CONDITIONS SHOULD BE MORE TEMPORALLY LIMITED.

SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA/SOUTHWEST ARIZONA INCLUDING KIPL AND KBLH...
SFC WINDS WILL EVENTUALLY VEER TO A MORE NLY DIRECTION THIS
MORNING...AND CONFIDENCE IS FAIRLY GOOD THAT A FEW HIGHER GUSTS WILL
MATERIALIZE BY LATE MORNING (PARTICULARLY AT KBLH). NO OTHER
AVIATION CONCERNS AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WEAKENS BY LATE
AFTERNOON...AND SFC WINDS FALL BACK TO AROUND 5KT AND BECOME MORE
WLY IN DIRECTION WITH NOCTURNAL DECOUPLING.

AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDED TAFS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...
A VERY STRONG UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL APPROACH THE AREA ON FRIDAY AND
MOVE THROUGH THE DISTRICTS ON SATURDAY. AHEAD OF THIS WEATHER
SYSTEM...WINDS WILL INCREASE AND BECOME FREQUENTLY GUSTY FRIDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THE STRONGEST WINDS FRIDAY WILL BE
EXPERIENCED ACROSS SE CALIFORNIA AND THE LOWER COLORADO RIVER
VALLEY...AND ITS POSSIBLE CRITICAL THRESHOLDS MAY BE MET.
TEMPERATURES ON SATURDAY WILL PLUMMET TO WELL BELOW NORMAL
LEVELS...AND HUMIDITY LEVELS WILL INCREASE (ALONG WITH A POSSIBILITY
OF LIGHT RAIN). THIS MAY OTHERWISE LIMIT A MUCH HIGHER FIRE
DANGER...BECAUSE WINDS SATURDAY ACROSS THE ENTIRE REGION WILL BE
UNUSUALLY STRONG FOR MUCH OF THE DAY (LIKELY GUSTING AOA 40 MPH).
COOLER WEATHER WILL LINGER SUNDAY WITH A WARMING TREND EARLY NEXT
WEEK. AS TEMPERATURES RECOVER NEXT WEEK...AFTERNOON HUMIDITIES WILL
ONCE AGAIN DROP INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS WITH ONLY FAIR OVERNIGHT
RECOVERY.

&&

.PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

AZ...NONE.

CA...NONE.

&&

$$

VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/PHOENIX

DISCUSSION...PERCHA
AVIATION....MO
FIRE WEATHER...LEINS/MO






000
FXUS65 KPSR 231136
AFDPSR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PHOENIX AZ
435 AM MST WED APR 23 2014

...UPDATED AVIATION AND FIRE WEATHER...

.SYNOPSIS...
THE WEATHER DISTURBANCE THAT BROUGHT GUSTY WINDS AND AREAS OF
BLOWING DUST TO THE REGION ON TUESDAY IS EXPECTED TO BRING COOLER
TEMPERATURES TODAY AS IT MOVES OFF TO THE EAST. WARMER TEMPERATURES
WILL MAKE A RETURN THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. ANOTHER...MUCH STRONGER LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL THEN AFFECT THE REGION FROM FRIDAY ONWARD INTO
THE UPCOMING WEEKEND. BREEZY TO WINDY CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED
ALONG WITH MUCH COOLER TEMPERATURES ON SATURDAY. THERE IS ALSO A
CHANCE OF SHOWERS LATE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY NIGHT...MAINLY FOR
THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING
BACK NORTHWARD OVER THE WESTERN US IS THEN EXPECTED TO BRING WARMER
TEMPERATURES FOR THE EARLY AND MIDDLE PARTS OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...
THE DRY COOL FRONT THAT BROUGHT OUR CWA GUSTY WINDS...PATCHY BLOWING
DUST...AND HIGH FIRE DANGER ON TUESDAY HAS FINALLY PUSHED INTO
SOUTHEASTERN AZ THIS MORNING. THE MAIN IMPACTS FROM THIS FRONT TODAY
WILL BE SOMEWHAT COOLER TEMPERATURES AND LOWER DEWPOINTS...ALONG
WITH SOME GUSTY AFTERNOON BREEZES ACROSS SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH-CENTRAL
AZ. CURRENT FORECAST SOUNDINGS FOR THE PHX AREA ARE INDICATING THAT
850MB TEMPS WILL DROP FROM YESTERDAY`S 22C TO AROUND 17C BY THIS
AFTERNOON...WHICH SHOULD RESULT IN ABOUT 8-10 DEGREES OF COOLING AT
THE SFC...WITH HIGHS REMAINING MOSTLY IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S
TODAY...WHICH IS NOW RIGHT AROUND NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.
NIGHTTIME LOWS TONIGHT SHOULD ALSO BE NOTICEABLY COOLER...WITH MOST
OUTLYING LOWER DESERT LOCATIONS SEEING LOWS IN THE 50S UNDER MOSTLY
CLEAR SKIES. WEAK RIDGING AHEAD OF THE NEXT UPPER TROF IS THEN
EXPECTED TO BRING SOMEWHAT WARMER TEMPERATURES ON THURSDAY...WITH
LOWER DESERT HIGHS PUSHING BACK INTO THE LOW TO MID 90S.

FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...
THE NEXT PACIFIC SYSTEM THAT WILL BE AFFECTING OUR AREA FROM FRIDAY
ONWARD INTO THE WEEKEND CAN ALREADY BE SEEN ON LATEST IR SATELLITE
IMAGERY JUST BEGINNING TO MOVE SOUTHWARD FROM THE GULF OF ALASKA
INTO THE EASTERN PACIFIC. THE LATEST GFS...EURO...AND GEM HAVE NOW
COME INTO VERY GOOD AGREEMENT THAT THIS NEXT SYSTEM WILL BE THE
STRONGEST SYSTEM THAT WE HAVE SEEN FOR A WHILE. THEY ALL NOW MOVE A
RATHER ROBUST...AND COLD UPPER LOW INLAND OVER CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN
CA BY LATE FRIDAY EVENING AND EARLY SATURDAY...THEN ACROSS NORTHERN
ARIZONA DURING THE DAY ON SATURDAY...AND INTO NEW MEXICO BY SUNDAY
MORNING.

THE MODELS ARE ALL NOW SHOWING VERY SHARP HEIGHT FALLS AND
TEMPERATURE DROPS AS THIS SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH...WITH 500MB HEIGHTS
OVER THE PHX AREA FALLING FROM AROUND 572DM ON FRIDAY AFTERNOON TO
AROUND 550-552DM BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON...WITH 850MB TEMPERATURES
FALLING FROM AROUND 19C TO 7C DURING THE SAME PERIOD. ALTHOUGH THERE
WILL LIKELY NOT BE A WHOLE LOT OF MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THIS
SYSTEM...WITH PWATS ONLY BRIEFLY RISING INTO THE 0.75-0.85 INCH
RANGE...THE IMPRESSIVE DYNAMICS AND COOLING THAT THIS SYSTEM WILL
POSSESS WILL LIKELY PRODUCE AT LEAST SOME SHOWER ACTIVITY DURING THE
DAY ON SATURDAY ACROSS SOUTH-CENTRAL AZ ALONG AND JUST AHEAD OF THE
MAIN FRONT. HOWEVER...THE BIGGEST IMPACT FROM THIS SYSTEM WILL
LIKELY BE THE WINDS...WITH WIDESPREAD ADVISORY-LEVEL WINDS POSSIBLE
ON SATURDAY AS EFFICIENT MIXING WILL LIKELY ALLOW 35-40KT 700MB
WINDS TO BE BROUGHT ALL THE WAY DOWN TO THE SFC...WITH BLOWING DUST
LIKELY TO BE A PROBLEM AS WELL. AFTER ANOTHER DAY OF 90+ DEGREE
TEMPERATURES ON FRIDAY...IT NOW LOOK LIKELY THAT HIGHS WILL REMAIN
WELL DOWN IN THE 70S ON SATURDAY. SUNDAY LOOKS LIKE IT WILL BE A
MUCH QUIETER DAY AS THE SYSTEM MOVES OFF RAPIDLY TO THE EAST...WITH
HIGHS REBOUNDING INTO THE LOW 80S ACROSS THE LOWER DESERTS UNDER
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES...WITH JUST SOME AFTERNOON WESTERLY BREEZES.

MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...
ALTHOUGH THERE ARE DIFFERENCES BETWEEN THE MODELS...WITH THE EURO
BEING THE SLOWEST/COOLEST AND THE GEM BEING THE
FASTEST/WARMEST...THEY ALL ARE ATTEMPTING TO REBUILD RIDGING BACK
NORTHWARD OVER THE REGION FOR THE EARLY AND MIDDLE PART OF NEXT
WEEK...WITH TEMPERATURES WARMING BACK UP WELL INTO THE 90S UNDER
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES. HOWEVER...WIDESPREAD TRIPLE-DIGIT TEMPERATURES
DO NOT APPEAR LIKELY AT THIS TIME...SINCE LONG-WAVE TROUGHING OVER
THE CENTRAL CONUS SHOULD KEEP OUR UPPER-LEVEL FLOW A NORTHWESTERLY
ONE.

&&

.AVIATION...
SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA INCLUDING KPHX...KIWA...AND KSDL...
NO SIGNIFICANT AVIATION CONCERNS THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING...WITH
TIMING OF WIND SHIFTS THE PRIMARY FORECAST CHALLENGE. WITH FAIRLY
GOOD CONFIDENCE...A PERIOD OF VARIABLE SFC WINDS WILL PREVAIL THIS
MORNING DESPITE A PERSISTENT WEST 5-10KT WINDS 2K-4K ABOVE THE
GROUND. EVENTUALLY LATE THIS MORNING...WLY WINDS WILL MIX TO THE
GROUND. THERE MAY BE A PERIOD OF A FEW HIGHER GUSTS UP TO
20KT...THOUGH THESE CONDITIONS SHOULD BE MORE TEMPORALLY LIMITED.

SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA/SOUTHWEST ARIZONA INCLUDING KIPL AND KBLH...
SFC WINDS WILL EVENTUALLY VEER TO A MORE NLY DIRECTION THIS
MORNING...AND CONFIDENCE IS FAIRLY GOOD THAT A FEW HIGHER GUSTS WILL
MATERIALIZE BY LATE MORNING (PARTICULARLY AT KBLH). NO OTHER
AVIATION CONCERNS AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WEAKENS BY LATE
AFTERNOON...AND SFC WINDS FALL BACK TO AROUND 5KT AND BECOME MORE
WLY IN DIRECTION WITH NOCTURNAL DECOUPLING.

AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDED TAFS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...
A VERY STRONG UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL APPROACH THE AREA ON FRIDAY AND
MOVE THROUGH THE DISTRICTS ON SATURDAY. AHEAD OF THIS WEATHER
SYSTEM...WINDS WILL INCREASE AND BECOME FREQUENTLY GUSTY FRIDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THE STRONGEST WINDS FRIDAY WILL BE
EXPERIENCED ACROSS SE CALIFORNIA AND THE LOWER COLORADO RIVER
VALLEY...AND ITS POSSIBLE CRITICAL THRESHOLDS MAY BE MET.
TEMPERATURES ON SATURDAY WILL PLUMMET TO WELL BELOW NORMAL
LEVELS...AND HUMIDITY LEVELS WILL INCREASE (ALONG WITH A POSSIBILITY
OF LIGHT RAIN). THIS MAY OTHERWISE LIMIT A MUCH HIGHER FIRE
DANGER...BECAUSE WINDS SATURDAY ACROSS THE ENTIRE REGION WILL BE
UNUSUALLY STRONG FOR MUCH OF THE DAY (LIKELY GUSTING AOA 40 MPH).
COOLER WEATHER WILL LINGER SUNDAY WITH A WARMING TREND EARLY NEXT
WEEK. AS TEMPERATURES RECOVER NEXT WEEK...AFTERNOON HUMIDITIES WILL
ONCE AGAIN DROP INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS WITH ONLY FAIR OVERNIGHT
RECOVERY.

&&

.PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

AZ...NONE.

CA...NONE.

&&

$$

VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/PHOENIX

DISCUSSION...PERCHA
AVIATION....MO
FIRE WEATHER...LEINS/MO






000
FXUS65 KPSR 231136
AFDPSR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PHOENIX AZ
435 AM MST WED APR 23 2014

...UPDATED AVIATION AND FIRE WEATHER...

.SYNOPSIS...
THE WEATHER DISTURBANCE THAT BROUGHT GUSTY WINDS AND AREAS OF
BLOWING DUST TO THE REGION ON TUESDAY IS EXPECTED TO BRING COOLER
TEMPERATURES TODAY AS IT MOVES OFF TO THE EAST. WARMER TEMPERATURES
WILL MAKE A RETURN THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. ANOTHER...MUCH STRONGER LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL THEN AFFECT THE REGION FROM FRIDAY ONWARD INTO
THE UPCOMING WEEKEND. BREEZY TO WINDY CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED
ALONG WITH MUCH COOLER TEMPERATURES ON SATURDAY. THERE IS ALSO A
CHANCE OF SHOWERS LATE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY NIGHT...MAINLY FOR
THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING
BACK NORTHWARD OVER THE WESTERN US IS THEN EXPECTED TO BRING WARMER
TEMPERATURES FOR THE EARLY AND MIDDLE PARTS OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...
THE DRY COOL FRONT THAT BROUGHT OUR CWA GUSTY WINDS...PATCHY BLOWING
DUST...AND HIGH FIRE DANGER ON TUESDAY HAS FINALLY PUSHED INTO
SOUTHEASTERN AZ THIS MORNING. THE MAIN IMPACTS FROM THIS FRONT TODAY
WILL BE SOMEWHAT COOLER TEMPERATURES AND LOWER DEWPOINTS...ALONG
WITH SOME GUSTY AFTERNOON BREEZES ACROSS SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH-CENTRAL
AZ. CURRENT FORECAST SOUNDINGS FOR THE PHX AREA ARE INDICATING THAT
850MB TEMPS WILL DROP FROM YESTERDAY`S 22C TO AROUND 17C BY THIS
AFTERNOON...WHICH SHOULD RESULT IN ABOUT 8-10 DEGREES OF COOLING AT
THE SFC...WITH HIGHS REMAINING MOSTLY IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S
TODAY...WHICH IS NOW RIGHT AROUND NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.
NIGHTTIME LOWS TONIGHT SHOULD ALSO BE NOTICEABLY COOLER...WITH MOST
OUTLYING LOWER DESERT LOCATIONS SEEING LOWS IN THE 50S UNDER MOSTLY
CLEAR SKIES. WEAK RIDGING AHEAD OF THE NEXT UPPER TROF IS THEN
EXPECTED TO BRING SOMEWHAT WARMER TEMPERATURES ON THURSDAY...WITH
LOWER DESERT HIGHS PUSHING BACK INTO THE LOW TO MID 90S.

FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...
THE NEXT PACIFIC SYSTEM THAT WILL BE AFFECTING OUR AREA FROM FRIDAY
ONWARD INTO THE WEEKEND CAN ALREADY BE SEEN ON LATEST IR SATELLITE
IMAGERY JUST BEGINNING TO MOVE SOUTHWARD FROM THE GULF OF ALASKA
INTO THE EASTERN PACIFIC. THE LATEST GFS...EURO...AND GEM HAVE NOW
COME INTO VERY GOOD AGREEMENT THAT THIS NEXT SYSTEM WILL BE THE
STRONGEST SYSTEM THAT WE HAVE SEEN FOR A WHILE. THEY ALL NOW MOVE A
RATHER ROBUST...AND COLD UPPER LOW INLAND OVER CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN
CA BY LATE FRIDAY EVENING AND EARLY SATURDAY...THEN ACROSS NORTHERN
ARIZONA DURING THE DAY ON SATURDAY...AND INTO NEW MEXICO BY SUNDAY
MORNING.

THE MODELS ARE ALL NOW SHOWING VERY SHARP HEIGHT FALLS AND
TEMPERATURE DROPS AS THIS SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH...WITH 500MB HEIGHTS
OVER THE PHX AREA FALLING FROM AROUND 572DM ON FRIDAY AFTERNOON TO
AROUND 550-552DM BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON...WITH 850MB TEMPERATURES
FALLING FROM AROUND 19C TO 7C DURING THE SAME PERIOD. ALTHOUGH THERE
WILL LIKELY NOT BE A WHOLE LOT OF MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THIS
SYSTEM...WITH PWATS ONLY BRIEFLY RISING INTO THE 0.75-0.85 INCH
RANGE...THE IMPRESSIVE DYNAMICS AND COOLING THAT THIS SYSTEM WILL
POSSESS WILL LIKELY PRODUCE AT LEAST SOME SHOWER ACTIVITY DURING THE
DAY ON SATURDAY ACROSS SOUTH-CENTRAL AZ ALONG AND JUST AHEAD OF THE
MAIN FRONT. HOWEVER...THE BIGGEST IMPACT FROM THIS SYSTEM WILL
LIKELY BE THE WINDS...WITH WIDESPREAD ADVISORY-LEVEL WINDS POSSIBLE
ON SATURDAY AS EFFICIENT MIXING WILL LIKELY ALLOW 35-40KT 700MB
WINDS TO BE BROUGHT ALL THE WAY DOWN TO THE SFC...WITH BLOWING DUST
LIKELY TO BE A PROBLEM AS WELL. AFTER ANOTHER DAY OF 90+ DEGREE
TEMPERATURES ON FRIDAY...IT NOW LOOK LIKELY THAT HIGHS WILL REMAIN
WELL DOWN IN THE 70S ON SATURDAY. SUNDAY LOOKS LIKE IT WILL BE A
MUCH QUIETER DAY AS THE SYSTEM MOVES OFF RAPIDLY TO THE EAST...WITH
HIGHS REBOUNDING INTO THE LOW 80S ACROSS THE LOWER DESERTS UNDER
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES...WITH JUST SOME AFTERNOON WESTERLY BREEZES.

MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...
ALTHOUGH THERE ARE DIFFERENCES BETWEEN THE MODELS...WITH THE EURO
BEING THE SLOWEST/COOLEST AND THE GEM BEING THE
FASTEST/WARMEST...THEY ALL ARE ATTEMPTING TO REBUILD RIDGING BACK
NORTHWARD OVER THE REGION FOR THE EARLY AND MIDDLE PART OF NEXT
WEEK...WITH TEMPERATURES WARMING BACK UP WELL INTO THE 90S UNDER
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES. HOWEVER...WIDESPREAD TRIPLE-DIGIT TEMPERATURES
DO NOT APPEAR LIKELY AT THIS TIME...SINCE LONG-WAVE TROUGHING OVER
THE CENTRAL CONUS SHOULD KEEP OUR UPPER-LEVEL FLOW A NORTHWESTERLY
ONE.

&&

.AVIATION...
SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA INCLUDING KPHX...KIWA...AND KSDL...
NO SIGNIFICANT AVIATION CONCERNS THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING...WITH
TIMING OF WIND SHIFTS THE PRIMARY FORECAST CHALLENGE. WITH FAIRLY
GOOD CONFIDENCE...A PERIOD OF VARIABLE SFC WINDS WILL PREVAIL THIS
MORNING DESPITE A PERSISTENT WEST 5-10KT WINDS 2K-4K ABOVE THE
GROUND. EVENTUALLY LATE THIS MORNING...WLY WINDS WILL MIX TO THE
GROUND. THERE MAY BE A PERIOD OF A FEW HIGHER GUSTS UP TO
20KT...THOUGH THESE CONDITIONS SHOULD BE MORE TEMPORALLY LIMITED.

SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA/SOUTHWEST ARIZONA INCLUDING KIPL AND KBLH...
SFC WINDS WILL EVENTUALLY VEER TO A MORE NLY DIRECTION THIS
MORNING...AND CONFIDENCE IS FAIRLY GOOD THAT A FEW HIGHER GUSTS WILL
MATERIALIZE BY LATE MORNING (PARTICULARLY AT KBLH). NO OTHER
AVIATION CONCERNS AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WEAKENS BY LATE
AFTERNOON...AND SFC WINDS FALL BACK TO AROUND 5KT AND BECOME MORE
WLY IN DIRECTION WITH NOCTURNAL DECOUPLING.

AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDED TAFS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...
A VERY STRONG UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL APPROACH THE AREA ON FRIDAY AND
MOVE THROUGH THE DISTRICTS ON SATURDAY. AHEAD OF THIS WEATHER
SYSTEM...WINDS WILL INCREASE AND BECOME FREQUENTLY GUSTY FRIDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THE STRONGEST WINDS FRIDAY WILL BE
EXPERIENCED ACROSS SE CALIFORNIA AND THE LOWER COLORADO RIVER
VALLEY...AND ITS POSSIBLE CRITICAL THRESHOLDS MAY BE MET.
TEMPERATURES ON SATURDAY WILL PLUMMET TO WELL BELOW NORMAL
LEVELS...AND HUMIDITY LEVELS WILL INCREASE (ALONG WITH A POSSIBILITY
OF LIGHT RAIN). THIS MAY OTHERWISE LIMIT A MUCH HIGHER FIRE
DANGER...BECAUSE WINDS SATURDAY ACROSS THE ENTIRE REGION WILL BE
UNUSUALLY STRONG FOR MUCH OF THE DAY (LIKELY GUSTING AOA 40 MPH).
COOLER WEATHER WILL LINGER SUNDAY WITH A WARMING TREND EARLY NEXT
WEEK. AS TEMPERATURES RECOVER NEXT WEEK...AFTERNOON HUMIDITIES WILL
ONCE AGAIN DROP INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS WITH ONLY FAIR OVERNIGHT
RECOVERY.

&&

.PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

AZ...NONE.

CA...NONE.

&&

$$

VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/PHOENIX

DISCUSSION...PERCHA
AVIATION....MO
FIRE WEATHER...LEINS/MO






000
FXUS65 KFGZ 231035
AFDFGZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ
335 AM MST WED APR 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...FAIR AND MILD CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST THROUGH THURSDAY.
A STRONG AND COLD LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BRING WINDY CONDITIONS BY
FRIDAY...WITH COLD TEMPERATURES AND A GOOD CHANCE OF RAIN AND SNOW
BY SATURDAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...A FAIRLY BENIGN WEATHER SITUATION WILL DEVELOP FOR THE
NEXT TWO DAYS IN THE WAKE OF A DRY COLD FRONT THAT MOVED THROUGH THE
AREA ON TUESDAY. WIND SPEEDS WILL DECREASE TODAY...WITH THE HIGHEST
WINDS STAYING WELL EAST OF FLAGSTAFF...NEAR THE NEW MEXICO BORDER.
ADVISORY LEVELS SPEEDS ARE NOT ANTICIPATED. LESS WIND IS EXPECTED
THURSDAY AS A LOW AMPLITUDE S/WV RIDGE MOVES THROUGH THE SOUTHWEST.

BY FRIDAY...WINDS WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE ACROSS THE REGION AND WIND
PRODUCTS WILL BE TOUGH TO AVOID. THIS IS IN ADVANCE OF A COLD LATE
SEASON LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM...WHICH IS TRENDING FARTHER AND FARTHER
SOUTHWEST WHICH EACH MODEL RUN. CURRENT MODELS ARE ACTUALLY IN FAIR
AGREEMENT WITH THIS STORM...INCLUDING THE NEW TRENDS...TIMING AND
PLACEMENT. 500MB TEMPERATURES AS COLD AS -27C WILL MOVE THROUGH
CENTRAL ARIZONA SATURDAY...WITH SNOW LEVELS FALLING TO 6000 FEET.
MODEL QPF SUPPORTS SEVERAL INCHES OF SNOW ABOVE 7000 FEET...WITH
LIGHT TO MODERATE RAINFALL SOUTH OF THE RIM AT LOWER ELEVATIONS.

WE HAVE RAISED POPS AND INTRODUCED SOME SNOWFALL TO THE HIGH
COUNTRY. THE SHEAR AND ABNORMALLY COLD MID-LEVEL TEMPERATURES WITH
THIS STORM WILL ALSO SUPPORT AT LEAST SCATTERED CONVECTION...WITH
AT LEAST A LOW PROBABILITY OF SEVERE CONVECTION. RECORD SNOWFALL
AMOUNTS FOR FLAGSTAFF FOR APRIL 26TH HAVE HAD SEVERAL OCCURRENCES
ABOVE 5 INCHES...WITH THE RECORD AT 8.5 INCHES. IT DOES NOT LOOK
LIKE A RECORD SNOWFALL EVENT AT THIS TIME...BUT IT WILL BE ENOUGH
TO SUBSTANTIALLY AFFECT HIGHWAY TRAVEL DURING THE DAY SATURDAY. STAY
TUNED FOR UPDATES IN THE COMING DAYS FOR YOUR WEEKEND FORECAST.

THE SYSTEM EJECT FAIRLY RAPIDLY SUNDAY...WITH RIDGING RETURNING FOR
EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 12Z PACKAGE...EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS OVER THE
NEXT 24 HOURS UNDER VARIABLE HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS. EXPECT SOUTHWEST
WINDS TO 10-20G30KTS FROM 18Z-02Z. AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED
FOR AMENDMENTS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...TODAY AND THURSDAY...DRY CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL
WITH BREEZY AFTERNOONS.

FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL APPROACH ARIZONA
WITH INCREASING WINDS ON FRIDAY...THEN MOVE ACROSS THE AREA STARTING
SATURDAY WITH CONTINUED WINDY CONDITIONS. RAIN AND SNOW WILL BECOME
LIKELY FOR MOST HIGHER ELEVATIONS LATE FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY
WITH A CHANCE OF RAIN AT LOWER ELEVATIONS. CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER
CONDITIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER PORTIONS OF NORTHERN ARIZONA ON
FRIDAY.

&&

.FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC.........PETERSON
AVIATION.......MAS
FIRE WEATHER...MAS

FOR NORTHERN ARIZONA WEATHER INFORMATION VISIT
WEATHER.GOV/FLAGSTAFF





000
FXUS65 KPSR 230924
AFDPSR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PHOENIX AZ
225 AM MST WED APR 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
THE WEATHER DISTURBANCE THAT BROUGHT GUSTY WINDS AND AREAS OF
BLOWING DUST TO THE REGION ON TUESDAY IS EXPECTED TO BRING COOLER
TEMPERATURES TODAY AS IT MOVES OFF TO THE EAST. WARMER TEMPERATURES
WILL MAKE A RETURN THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. ANOTHER...MUCH STRONGER LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL THEN AFFECT THE REGION FROM FRIDAY ONWARD INTO
THE UPCOMING WEEKEND. BREEZY TO WINDY CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED
ALONG WITH MUCH COOLER TEMPERATURES ON SATURDAY. THERE IS ALSO A
CHANCE OF SHOWERS LATE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY NIGHT...MAINLY FOR
THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING
BACK NORTHWARD OVER THE WESTERN US IS THEN EXPECTED TO BRING WARMER
TEMPERATURES FOR THE EARLY AND MIDDLE PARTS OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...
THE DRY COOL FRONT THAT BROUGHT OUR CWA GUSTY WINDS...PATCHY BLOWING
DUST...AND HIGH FIRE DANGER ON TUESDAY HAS FINALLY PUSHED INTO
SOUTHEASTERN AZ THIS MORNING. THE MAIN IMPACTS FROM THIS FRONT TODAY
WILL BE SOMEWHAT COOLER TEMPERATURES AND LOWER DEWPOINTS...ALONG
WITH SOME GUSTY AFTERNOON BREEZES ACROSS SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH-CENTRAL
AZ. CURRENT FORECAST SOUNDINGS FOR THE PHX AREA ARE INDICATING THAT
850MB TEMPS WILL DROP FROM YESTERDAY`S 22C TO AROUND 17C BY THIS
AFTERNOON...WHICH SHOULD RESULT IN ABOUT 8-10 DEGREES OF COOLING AT
THE SFC...WITH HIGHS REMAINING MOSTLY IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S
TODAY...WHICH IS NOW RIGHT AROUND NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.
NIGHTTIME LOWS TONIGHT SHOULD ALSO BE NOTICEABLY COOLER...WITH MOST
OUTLYING LOWER DESERT LOCATIONS SEEING LOWS IN THE 50S UNDER MOSTLY
CLEAR SKIES. WEAK RIDGING AHEAD OF THE NEXT UPPER TROF IS THEN
EXPECTED TO BRING SOMEWHAT WARMER TEMPERATURES ON THURSDAY...WITH
LOWER DESERT HIGHS PUSHING BACK INTO THE LOW TO MID 90S.

FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...
THE NEXT PACIFIC SYSTEM THAT WILL BE AFFECTING OUR AREA FROM FRIDAY
ONWARD INTO THE WEEKEND CAN ALREADY BE SEEN ON LATEST IR SATELLITE
IMAGERY JUST BEGINNING TO MOVE SOUTHWARD FROM THE GULF OF ALASKA
INTO THE EASTERN PACIFIC. THE LATEST GFS...EURO...AND GEM HAVE NOW
COME INTO VERY GOOD AGREEMENT THAT THIS NEXT SYSTEM WILL BE THE
STRONGEST SYSTEM THAT WE HAVE SEEN FOR A WHILE. THEY ALL NOW MOVE A
RATHER ROBUST...AND COLD UPPER LOW INLAND OVER CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN
CA BY LATE FRIDAY EVENING AND EARLY SATURDAY...THEN ACROSS NORTHERN
ARIZONA DURING THE DAY ON SATURDAY...AND INTO NEW MEXICO BY SUNDAY
MORNING.

THE MODELS ARE ALL NOW SHOWING VERY SHARP HEIGHT FALLS AND
TEMPERATURE DROPS AS THIS SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH...WITH 500MB HEIGHTS
OVER THE PHX AREA FALLING FROM AROUND 572DM ON FRIDAY AFTERNOON TO
AROUND 550-552DM BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON...WITH 850MB TEMPERATURES
FALLING FROM AROUND 19C TO 7C DURING THE SAME PERIOD. ALTHOUGH THERE
WILL LIKELY NOT BE A WHOLE LOT OF MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THIS
SYSTEM...WITH PWATS ONLY BRIEFLY RISING INTO THE 0.75-0.85 INCH
RANGE...THE IMPRESSIVE DYNAMICS AND COOLING THAT THIS SYSTEM WILL
POSSESS WILL LIKELY PRODUCE AT LEAST SOME SHOWER ACTIVITY DURING THE
DAY ON SATURDAY ACROSS SOUTH-CENTRAL AZ ALONG AND JUST AHEAD OF THE
MAIN FRONT. HOWEVER...THE BIGGEST IMPACT FROM THIS SYSTEM WILL
LIKELY BE THE WINDS...WITH WIDESPREAD ADVISORY-LEVEL WINDS POSSIBLE
ON SATURDAY AS EFFICIENT MIXING WILL LIKELY ALLOW 35-40KT 700MB
WINDS TO BE BROUGHT ALL THE WAY DOWN TO THE SFC...WITH BLOWING DUST
LIKELY TO BE A PROBLEM AS WELL. AFTER ANOTHER DAY OF 90+ DEGREE
TEMPERATURES ON FRIDAY...IT NOW LOOK LIKELY THAT HIGHS WILL REMAIN
WELL DOWN IN THE 70S ON SATURDAY. SUNDAY LOOKS LIKE IT WILL BE A
MUCH QUIETER DAY AS THE SYSTEM MOVES OFF RAPIDLY TO THE EAST...WITH
HIGHS REBOUNDING INTO THE LOW 80S ACROSS THE LOWER DESERTS UNDER
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES...WITH JUST SOME AFTERNOON WESTERLY BREEZES.

MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...
ALTHOUGH THERE ARE DIFFERENCES BETWEEN THE MODELS...WITH THE EURO
BEING THE SLOWEST/COOLEST AND THE GEM BEING THE
FASTEST/WARMEST...THEY ALL ARE ATTEMPTING TO REBUILD RIDGING BACK
NORTHWARD OVER THE REGION FOR THE EARLY AND MIDDLE PART OF NEXT
WEEK...WITH TEMPERATURES WARMING BACK UP WELL INTO THE 90S UNDER
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES. HOWEVER...WIDESPREAD TRIPLE-DIGIT TEMPERATURES
DO NOT APPEAR LIKELY AT THIS TIME...SINCE LONG-WAVE TROUGHING OVER
THE CENTRAL CONUS SHOULD KEEP OUR UPPER-LEVEL FLOW A NORTHWESTERLY
ONE.

&&

.AVIATION...
SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA INCLUDING KPHX...KIWA...AND KSDL...
WEST/SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL REMAIN ELEVATED THROUGH MUCH OF THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS AS A DRY SURFACE COOL FRONT PASSES THROUGH CENTRAL
ARIZONA. NEAR 23/09-10Z...LIGHT SPEEDS UNDER 6KTS WITH VRB HEADINGS
POSSIBLE BEFORE TURNING WESTERLY AGAIN AS EARLY AS MIDDAY. HIGH
CLOUDS ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL QUICKLY CLEAR TO THE
EAST...LEAVING MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES FOR THE TERMINALS BY SUNRISE.

SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA/SOUTHWEST ARIZONA INCLUDING KIPL AND KBLH...
ELEVATED WEST WINDS TO PERSIST OVERNIGHT FOR KIPL AND KBLH...WITH
ISOLATED GUSTS IN THE 20KT RANGE STILL POSSIBLE THROUGH MIDNIGHT
LOCAL. SUSTAINED SPEEDS TO HOLD 10-15KTS GNLY THROUGH SUNRISE BEFORE
DROPPING 8KTS OR LESS FOR WEDNESDAY MORNING. IN THE WAKE OF A DRY
COOL FRONT PASSAGE...SKIES WILL REMAIN MOSTLY CLEAR THROUGH WEDNESDAY
MORNING.

AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDED TAFS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...
STRONG UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL APPROACH THE AREA ON FRIDAY AND MOVE
THROUGH ARIZONA/CALIFORNIA ON SATURDAY. AHEAD OF THE TROUGH...WINDS
WILL INCREASE QUITE A BIT FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND ITS POSSIBLE CRITICAL
THRESHOLDS COULD BE REALIZED IN SOME PARTS OF THE FORECAST AREA.
STILL NEED A LITTLE BETTER CONSISTENCY IN THE MODELS BEFORE GOING
WITH A FIRE WX WATCH AND WILL HOLD OFF AT THIS POINT. TEMPERATURES
ON SATURDAY AND SUNDAY /POST-TROUGH/ WILL BE SUBSTANTIALLY COOLER
AND HUMIDITIES WILL RECOVER QUITE A BIT...THUS FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS
WILL BE MUCH LESS. TEMPS WILL RECOVER NEXT WEEK AND CONSEQUENTLY
AFTERNOON HUMIDITIES WILL ONCE AGAIN DROP INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS.

&&

.PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

AZ...NONE.

CA...NONE.

&&

$$

VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/PHOENIX

DISCUSSION...PERCHA
AVIATION....NOLTE
FIRE WEATHER...LEINS/MO






000
FXUS65 KPSR 230924
AFDPSR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PHOENIX AZ
225 AM MST WED APR 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
THE WEATHER DISTURBANCE THAT BROUGHT GUSTY WINDS AND AREAS OF
BLOWING DUST TO THE REGION ON TUESDAY IS EXPECTED TO BRING COOLER
TEMPERATURES TODAY AS IT MOVES OFF TO THE EAST. WARMER TEMPERATURES
WILL MAKE A RETURN THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. ANOTHER...MUCH STRONGER LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL THEN AFFECT THE REGION FROM FRIDAY ONWARD INTO
THE UPCOMING WEEKEND. BREEZY TO WINDY CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED
ALONG WITH MUCH COOLER TEMPERATURES ON SATURDAY. THERE IS ALSO A
CHANCE OF SHOWERS LATE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY NIGHT...MAINLY FOR
THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING
BACK NORTHWARD OVER THE WESTERN US IS THEN EXPECTED TO BRING WARMER
TEMPERATURES FOR THE EARLY AND MIDDLE PARTS OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...
THE DRY COOL FRONT THAT BROUGHT OUR CWA GUSTY WINDS...PATCHY BLOWING
DUST...AND HIGH FIRE DANGER ON TUESDAY HAS FINALLY PUSHED INTO
SOUTHEASTERN AZ THIS MORNING. THE MAIN IMPACTS FROM THIS FRONT TODAY
WILL BE SOMEWHAT COOLER TEMPERATURES AND LOWER DEWPOINTS...ALONG
WITH SOME GUSTY AFTERNOON BREEZES ACROSS SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH-CENTRAL
AZ. CURRENT FORECAST SOUNDINGS FOR THE PHX AREA ARE INDICATING THAT
850MB TEMPS WILL DROP FROM YESTERDAY`S 22C TO AROUND 17C BY THIS
AFTERNOON...WHICH SHOULD RESULT IN ABOUT 8-10 DEGREES OF COOLING AT
THE SFC...WITH HIGHS REMAINING MOSTLY IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S
TODAY...WHICH IS NOW RIGHT AROUND NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.
NIGHTTIME LOWS TONIGHT SHOULD ALSO BE NOTICEABLY COOLER...WITH MOST
OUTLYING LOWER DESERT LOCATIONS SEEING LOWS IN THE 50S UNDER MOSTLY
CLEAR SKIES. WEAK RIDGING AHEAD OF THE NEXT UPPER TROF IS THEN
EXPECTED TO BRING SOMEWHAT WARMER TEMPERATURES ON THURSDAY...WITH
LOWER DESERT HIGHS PUSHING BACK INTO THE LOW TO MID 90S.

FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...
THE NEXT PACIFIC SYSTEM THAT WILL BE AFFECTING OUR AREA FROM FRIDAY
ONWARD INTO THE WEEKEND CAN ALREADY BE SEEN ON LATEST IR SATELLITE
IMAGERY JUST BEGINNING TO MOVE SOUTHWARD FROM THE GULF OF ALASKA
INTO THE EASTERN PACIFIC. THE LATEST GFS...EURO...AND GEM HAVE NOW
COME INTO VERY GOOD AGREEMENT THAT THIS NEXT SYSTEM WILL BE THE
STRONGEST SYSTEM THAT WE HAVE SEEN FOR A WHILE. THEY ALL NOW MOVE A
RATHER ROBUST...AND COLD UPPER LOW INLAND OVER CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN
CA BY LATE FRIDAY EVENING AND EARLY SATURDAY...THEN ACROSS NORTHERN
ARIZONA DURING THE DAY ON SATURDAY...AND INTO NEW MEXICO BY SUNDAY
MORNING.

THE MODELS ARE ALL NOW SHOWING VERY SHARP HEIGHT FALLS AND
TEMPERATURE DROPS AS THIS SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH...WITH 500MB HEIGHTS
OVER THE PHX AREA FALLING FROM AROUND 572DM ON FRIDAY AFTERNOON TO
AROUND 550-552DM BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON...WITH 850MB TEMPERATURES
FALLING FROM AROUND 19C TO 7C DURING THE SAME PERIOD. ALTHOUGH THERE
WILL LIKELY NOT BE A WHOLE LOT OF MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THIS
SYSTEM...WITH PWATS ONLY BRIEFLY RISING INTO THE 0.75-0.85 INCH
RANGE...THE IMPRESSIVE DYNAMICS AND COOLING THAT THIS SYSTEM WILL
POSSESS WILL LIKELY PRODUCE AT LEAST SOME SHOWER ACTIVITY DURING THE
DAY ON SATURDAY ACROSS SOUTH-CENTRAL AZ ALONG AND JUST AHEAD OF THE
MAIN FRONT. HOWEVER...THE BIGGEST IMPACT FROM THIS SYSTEM WILL
LIKELY BE THE WINDS...WITH WIDESPREAD ADVISORY-LEVEL WINDS POSSIBLE
ON SATURDAY AS EFFICIENT MIXING WILL LIKELY ALLOW 35-40KT 700MB
WINDS TO BE BROUGHT ALL THE WAY DOWN TO THE SFC...WITH BLOWING DUST
LIKELY TO BE A PROBLEM AS WELL. AFTER ANOTHER DAY OF 90+ DEGREE
TEMPERATURES ON FRIDAY...IT NOW LOOK LIKELY THAT HIGHS WILL REMAIN
WELL DOWN IN THE 70S ON SATURDAY. SUNDAY LOOKS LIKE IT WILL BE A
MUCH QUIETER DAY AS THE SYSTEM MOVES OFF RAPIDLY TO THE EAST...WITH
HIGHS REBOUNDING INTO THE LOW 80S ACROSS THE LOWER DESERTS UNDER
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES...WITH JUST SOME AFTERNOON WESTERLY BREEZES.

MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...
ALTHOUGH THERE ARE DIFFERENCES BETWEEN THE MODELS...WITH THE EURO
BEING THE SLOWEST/COOLEST AND THE GEM BEING THE
FASTEST/WARMEST...THEY ALL ARE ATTEMPTING TO REBUILD RIDGING BACK
NORTHWARD OVER THE REGION FOR THE EARLY AND MIDDLE PART OF NEXT
WEEK...WITH TEMPERATURES WARMING BACK UP WELL INTO THE 90S UNDER
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES. HOWEVER...WIDESPREAD TRIPLE-DIGIT TEMPERATURES
DO NOT APPEAR LIKELY AT THIS TIME...SINCE LONG-WAVE TROUGHING OVER
THE CENTRAL CONUS SHOULD KEEP OUR UPPER-LEVEL FLOW A NORTHWESTERLY
ONE.

&&

.AVIATION...
SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA INCLUDING KPHX...KIWA...AND KSDL...
WEST/SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL REMAIN ELEVATED THROUGH MUCH OF THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS AS A DRY SURFACE COOL FRONT PASSES THROUGH CENTRAL
ARIZONA. NEAR 23/09-10Z...LIGHT SPEEDS UNDER 6KTS WITH VRB HEADINGS
POSSIBLE BEFORE TURNING WESTERLY AGAIN AS EARLY AS MIDDAY. HIGH
CLOUDS ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL QUICKLY CLEAR TO THE
EAST...LEAVING MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES FOR THE TERMINALS BY SUNRISE.

SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA/SOUTHWEST ARIZONA INCLUDING KIPL AND KBLH...
ELEVATED WEST WINDS TO PERSIST OVERNIGHT FOR KIPL AND KBLH...WITH
ISOLATED GUSTS IN THE 20KT RANGE STILL POSSIBLE THROUGH MIDNIGHT
LOCAL. SUSTAINED SPEEDS TO HOLD 10-15KTS GNLY THROUGH SUNRISE BEFORE
DROPPING 8KTS OR LESS FOR WEDNESDAY MORNING. IN THE WAKE OF A DRY
COOL FRONT PASSAGE...SKIES WILL REMAIN MOSTLY CLEAR THROUGH WEDNESDAY
MORNING.

AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDED TAFS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...
STRONG UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL APPROACH THE AREA ON FRIDAY AND MOVE
THROUGH ARIZONA/CALIFORNIA ON SATURDAY. AHEAD OF THE TROUGH...WINDS
WILL INCREASE QUITE A BIT FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND ITS POSSIBLE CRITICAL
THRESHOLDS COULD BE REALIZED IN SOME PARTS OF THE FORECAST AREA.
STILL NEED A LITTLE BETTER CONSISTENCY IN THE MODELS BEFORE GOING
WITH A FIRE WX WATCH AND WILL HOLD OFF AT THIS POINT. TEMPERATURES
ON SATURDAY AND SUNDAY /POST-TROUGH/ WILL BE SUBSTANTIALLY COOLER
AND HUMIDITIES WILL RECOVER QUITE A BIT...THUS FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS
WILL BE MUCH LESS. TEMPS WILL RECOVER NEXT WEEK AND CONSEQUENTLY
AFTERNOON HUMIDITIES WILL ONCE AGAIN DROP INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS.

&&

.PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

AZ...NONE.

CA...NONE.

&&

$$

VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/PHOENIX

DISCUSSION...PERCHA
AVIATION....NOLTE
FIRE WEATHER...LEINS/MO






000
FXUS65 KPSR 230924
AFDPSR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PHOENIX AZ
225 AM MST WED APR 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
THE WEATHER DISTURBANCE THAT BROUGHT GUSTY WINDS AND AREAS OF
BLOWING DUST TO THE REGION ON TUESDAY IS EXPECTED TO BRING COOLER
TEMPERATURES TODAY AS IT MOVES OFF TO THE EAST. WARMER TEMPERATURES
WILL MAKE A RETURN THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. ANOTHER...MUCH STRONGER LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL THEN AFFECT THE REGION FROM FRIDAY ONWARD INTO
THE UPCOMING WEEKEND. BREEZY TO WINDY CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED
ALONG WITH MUCH COOLER TEMPERATURES ON SATURDAY. THERE IS ALSO A
CHANCE OF SHOWERS LATE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY NIGHT...MAINLY FOR
THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING
BACK NORTHWARD OVER THE WESTERN US IS THEN EXPECTED TO BRING WARMER
TEMPERATURES FOR THE EARLY AND MIDDLE PARTS OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...
THE DRY COOL FRONT THAT BROUGHT OUR CWA GUSTY WINDS...PATCHY BLOWING
DUST...AND HIGH FIRE DANGER ON TUESDAY HAS FINALLY PUSHED INTO
SOUTHEASTERN AZ THIS MORNING. THE MAIN IMPACTS FROM THIS FRONT TODAY
WILL BE SOMEWHAT COOLER TEMPERATURES AND LOWER DEWPOINTS...ALONG
WITH SOME GUSTY AFTERNOON BREEZES ACROSS SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH-CENTRAL
AZ. CURRENT FORECAST SOUNDINGS FOR THE PHX AREA ARE INDICATING THAT
850MB TEMPS WILL DROP FROM YESTERDAY`S 22C TO AROUND 17C BY THIS
AFTERNOON...WHICH SHOULD RESULT IN ABOUT 8-10 DEGREES OF COOLING AT
THE SFC...WITH HIGHS REMAINING MOSTLY IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S
TODAY...WHICH IS NOW RIGHT AROUND NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.
NIGHTTIME LOWS TONIGHT SHOULD ALSO BE NOTICEABLY COOLER...WITH MOST
OUTLYING LOWER DESERT LOCATIONS SEEING LOWS IN THE 50S UNDER MOSTLY
CLEAR SKIES. WEAK RIDGING AHEAD OF THE NEXT UPPER TROF IS THEN
EXPECTED TO BRING SOMEWHAT WARMER TEMPERATURES ON THURSDAY...WITH
LOWER DESERT HIGHS PUSHING BACK INTO THE LOW TO MID 90S.

FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...
THE NEXT PACIFIC SYSTEM THAT WILL BE AFFECTING OUR AREA FROM FRIDAY
ONWARD INTO THE WEEKEND CAN ALREADY BE SEEN ON LATEST IR SATELLITE
IMAGERY JUST BEGINNING TO MOVE SOUTHWARD FROM THE GULF OF ALASKA
INTO THE EASTERN PACIFIC. THE LATEST GFS...EURO...AND GEM HAVE NOW
COME INTO VERY GOOD AGREEMENT THAT THIS NEXT SYSTEM WILL BE THE
STRONGEST SYSTEM THAT WE HAVE SEEN FOR A WHILE. THEY ALL NOW MOVE A
RATHER ROBUST...AND COLD UPPER LOW INLAND OVER CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN
CA BY LATE FRIDAY EVENING AND EARLY SATURDAY...THEN ACROSS NORTHERN
ARIZONA DURING THE DAY ON SATURDAY...AND INTO NEW MEXICO BY SUNDAY
MORNING.

THE MODELS ARE ALL NOW SHOWING VERY SHARP HEIGHT FALLS AND
TEMPERATURE DROPS AS THIS SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH...WITH 500MB HEIGHTS
OVER THE PHX AREA FALLING FROM AROUND 572DM ON FRIDAY AFTERNOON TO
AROUND 550-552DM BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON...WITH 850MB TEMPERATURES
FALLING FROM AROUND 19C TO 7C DURING THE SAME PERIOD. ALTHOUGH THERE
WILL LIKELY NOT BE A WHOLE LOT OF MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THIS
SYSTEM...WITH PWATS ONLY BRIEFLY RISING INTO THE 0.75-0.85 INCH
RANGE...THE IMPRESSIVE DYNAMICS AND COOLING THAT THIS SYSTEM WILL
POSSESS WILL LIKELY PRODUCE AT LEAST SOME SHOWER ACTIVITY DURING THE
DAY ON SATURDAY ACROSS SOUTH-CENTRAL AZ ALONG AND JUST AHEAD OF THE
MAIN FRONT. HOWEVER...THE BIGGEST IMPACT FROM THIS SYSTEM WILL
LIKELY BE THE WINDS...WITH WIDESPREAD ADVISORY-LEVEL WINDS POSSIBLE
ON SATURDAY AS EFFICIENT MIXING WILL LIKELY ALLOW 35-40KT 700MB
WINDS TO BE BROUGHT ALL THE WAY DOWN TO THE SFC...WITH BLOWING DUST
LIKELY TO BE A PROBLEM AS WELL. AFTER ANOTHER DAY OF 90+ DEGREE
TEMPERATURES ON FRIDAY...IT NOW LOOK LIKELY THAT HIGHS WILL REMAIN
WELL DOWN IN THE 70S ON SATURDAY. SUNDAY LOOKS LIKE IT WILL BE A
MUCH QUIETER DAY AS THE SYSTEM MOVES OFF RAPIDLY TO THE EAST...WITH
HIGHS REBOUNDING INTO THE LOW 80S ACROSS THE LOWER DESERTS UNDER
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES...WITH JUST SOME AFTERNOON WESTERLY BREEZES.

MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...
ALTHOUGH THERE ARE DIFFERENCES BETWEEN THE MODELS...WITH THE EURO
BEING THE SLOWEST/COOLEST AND THE GEM BEING THE
FASTEST/WARMEST...THEY ALL ARE ATTEMPTING TO REBUILD RIDGING BACK
NORTHWARD OVER THE REGION FOR THE EARLY AND MIDDLE PART OF NEXT
WEEK...WITH TEMPERATURES WARMING BACK UP WELL INTO THE 90S UNDER
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES. HOWEVER...WIDESPREAD TRIPLE-DIGIT TEMPERATURES
DO NOT APPEAR LIKELY AT THIS TIME...SINCE LONG-WAVE TROUGHING OVER
THE CENTRAL CONUS SHOULD KEEP OUR UPPER-LEVEL FLOW A NORTHWESTERLY
ONE.

&&

.AVIATION...
SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA INCLUDING KPHX...KIWA...AND KSDL...
WEST/SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL REMAIN ELEVATED THROUGH MUCH OF THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS AS A DRY SURFACE COOL FRONT PASSES THROUGH CENTRAL
ARIZONA. NEAR 23/09-10Z...LIGHT SPEEDS UNDER 6KTS WITH VRB HEADINGS
POSSIBLE BEFORE TURNING WESTERLY AGAIN AS EARLY AS MIDDAY. HIGH
CLOUDS ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL QUICKLY CLEAR TO THE
EAST...LEAVING MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES FOR THE TERMINALS BY SUNRISE.

SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA/SOUTHWEST ARIZONA INCLUDING KIPL AND KBLH...
ELEVATED WEST WINDS TO PERSIST OVERNIGHT FOR KIPL AND KBLH...WITH
ISOLATED GUSTS IN THE 20KT RANGE STILL POSSIBLE THROUGH MIDNIGHT
LOCAL. SUSTAINED SPEEDS TO HOLD 10-15KTS GNLY THROUGH SUNRISE BEFORE
DROPPING 8KTS OR LESS FOR WEDNESDAY MORNING. IN THE WAKE OF A DRY
COOL FRONT PASSAGE...SKIES WILL REMAIN MOSTLY CLEAR THROUGH WEDNESDAY
MORNING.

AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDED TAFS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...
STRONG UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL APPROACH THE AREA ON FRIDAY AND MOVE
THROUGH ARIZONA/CALIFORNIA ON SATURDAY. AHEAD OF THE TROUGH...WINDS
WILL INCREASE QUITE A BIT FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND ITS POSSIBLE CRITICAL
THRESHOLDS COULD BE REALIZED IN SOME PARTS OF THE FORECAST AREA.
STILL NEED A LITTLE BETTER CONSISTENCY IN THE MODELS BEFORE GOING
WITH A FIRE WX WATCH AND WILL HOLD OFF AT THIS POINT. TEMPERATURES
ON SATURDAY AND SUNDAY /POST-TROUGH/ WILL BE SUBSTANTIALLY COOLER
AND HUMIDITIES WILL RECOVER QUITE A BIT...THUS FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS
WILL BE MUCH LESS. TEMPS WILL RECOVER NEXT WEEK AND CONSEQUENTLY
AFTERNOON HUMIDITIES WILL ONCE AGAIN DROP INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS.

&&

.PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

AZ...NONE.

CA...NONE.

&&

$$

VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/PHOENIX

DISCUSSION...PERCHA
AVIATION....NOLTE
FIRE WEATHER...LEINS/MO






000
FXUS65 KPSR 230924
AFDPSR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PHOENIX AZ
225 AM MST WED APR 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
THE WEATHER DISTURBANCE THAT BROUGHT GUSTY WINDS AND AREAS OF
BLOWING DUST TO THE REGION ON TUESDAY IS EXPECTED TO BRING COOLER
TEMPERATURES TODAY AS IT MOVES OFF TO THE EAST. WARMER TEMPERATURES
WILL MAKE A RETURN THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. ANOTHER...MUCH STRONGER LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL THEN AFFECT THE REGION FROM FRIDAY ONWARD INTO
THE UPCOMING WEEKEND. BREEZY TO WINDY CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED
ALONG WITH MUCH COOLER TEMPERATURES ON SATURDAY. THERE IS ALSO A
CHANCE OF SHOWERS LATE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY NIGHT...MAINLY FOR
THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING
BACK NORTHWARD OVER THE WESTERN US IS THEN EXPECTED TO BRING WARMER
TEMPERATURES FOR THE EARLY AND MIDDLE PARTS OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...
THE DRY COOL FRONT THAT BROUGHT OUR CWA GUSTY WINDS...PATCHY BLOWING
DUST...AND HIGH FIRE DANGER ON TUESDAY HAS FINALLY PUSHED INTO
SOUTHEASTERN AZ THIS MORNING. THE MAIN IMPACTS FROM THIS FRONT TODAY
WILL BE SOMEWHAT COOLER TEMPERATURES AND LOWER DEWPOINTS...ALONG
WITH SOME GUSTY AFTERNOON BREEZES ACROSS SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH-CENTRAL
AZ. CURRENT FORECAST SOUNDINGS FOR THE PHX AREA ARE INDICATING THAT
850MB TEMPS WILL DROP FROM YESTERDAY`S 22C TO AROUND 17C BY THIS
AFTERNOON...WHICH SHOULD RESULT IN ABOUT 8-10 DEGREES OF COOLING AT
THE SFC...WITH HIGHS REMAINING MOSTLY IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S
TODAY...WHICH IS NOW RIGHT AROUND NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.
NIGHTTIME LOWS TONIGHT SHOULD ALSO BE NOTICEABLY COOLER...WITH MOST
OUTLYING LOWER DESERT LOCATIONS SEEING LOWS IN THE 50S UNDER MOSTLY
CLEAR SKIES. WEAK RIDGING AHEAD OF THE NEXT UPPER TROF IS THEN
EXPECTED TO BRING SOMEWHAT WARMER TEMPERATURES ON THURSDAY...WITH
LOWER DESERT HIGHS PUSHING BACK INTO THE LOW TO MID 90S.

FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...
THE NEXT PACIFIC SYSTEM THAT WILL BE AFFECTING OUR AREA FROM FRIDAY
ONWARD INTO THE WEEKEND CAN ALREADY BE SEEN ON LATEST IR SATELLITE
IMAGERY JUST BEGINNING TO MOVE SOUTHWARD FROM THE GULF OF ALASKA
INTO THE EASTERN PACIFIC. THE LATEST GFS...EURO...AND GEM HAVE NOW
COME INTO VERY GOOD AGREEMENT THAT THIS NEXT SYSTEM WILL BE THE
STRONGEST SYSTEM THAT WE HAVE SEEN FOR A WHILE. THEY ALL NOW MOVE A
RATHER ROBUST...AND COLD UPPER LOW INLAND OVER CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN
CA BY LATE FRIDAY EVENING AND EARLY SATURDAY...THEN ACROSS NORTHERN
ARIZONA DURING THE DAY ON SATURDAY...AND INTO NEW MEXICO BY SUNDAY
MORNING.

THE MODELS ARE ALL NOW SHOWING VERY SHARP HEIGHT FALLS AND
TEMPERATURE DROPS AS THIS SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH...WITH 500MB HEIGHTS
OVER THE PHX AREA FALLING FROM AROUND 572DM ON FRIDAY AFTERNOON TO
AROUND 550-552DM BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON...WITH 850MB TEMPERATURES
FALLING FROM AROUND 19C TO 7C DURING THE SAME PERIOD. ALTHOUGH THERE
WILL LIKELY NOT BE A WHOLE LOT OF MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THIS
SYSTEM...WITH PWATS ONLY BRIEFLY RISING INTO THE 0.75-0.85 INCH
RANGE...THE IMPRESSIVE DYNAMICS AND COOLING THAT THIS SYSTEM WILL
POSSESS WILL LIKELY PRODUCE AT LEAST SOME SHOWER ACTIVITY DURING THE
DAY ON SATURDAY ACROSS SOUTH-CENTRAL AZ ALONG AND JUST AHEAD OF THE
MAIN FRONT. HOWEVER...THE BIGGEST IMPACT FROM THIS SYSTEM WILL
LIKELY BE THE WINDS...WITH WIDESPREAD ADVISORY-LEVEL WINDS POSSIBLE
ON SATURDAY AS EFFICIENT MIXING WILL LIKELY ALLOW 35-40KT 700MB
WINDS TO BE BROUGHT ALL THE WAY DOWN TO THE SFC...WITH BLOWING DUST
LIKELY TO BE A PROBLEM AS WELL. AFTER ANOTHER DAY OF 90+ DEGREE
TEMPERATURES ON FRIDAY...IT NOW LOOK LIKELY THAT HIGHS WILL REMAIN
WELL DOWN IN THE 70S ON SATURDAY. SUNDAY LOOKS LIKE IT WILL BE A
MUCH QUIETER DAY AS THE SYSTEM MOVES OFF RAPIDLY TO THE EAST...WITH
HIGHS REBOUNDING INTO THE LOW 80S ACROSS THE LOWER DESERTS UNDER
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES...WITH JUST SOME AFTERNOON WESTERLY BREEZES.

MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...
ALTHOUGH THERE ARE DIFFERENCES BETWEEN THE MODELS...WITH THE EURO
BEING THE SLOWEST/COOLEST AND THE GEM BEING THE
FASTEST/WARMEST...THEY ALL ARE ATTEMPTING TO REBUILD RIDGING BACK
NORTHWARD OVER THE REGION FOR THE EARLY AND MIDDLE PART OF NEXT
WEEK...WITH TEMPERATURES WARMING BACK UP WELL INTO THE 90S UNDER
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES. HOWEVER...WIDESPREAD TRIPLE-DIGIT TEMPERATURES
DO NOT APPEAR LIKELY AT THIS TIME...SINCE LONG-WAVE TROUGHING OVER
THE CENTRAL CONUS SHOULD KEEP OUR UPPER-LEVEL FLOW A NORTHWESTERLY
ONE.

&&

.AVIATION...
SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA INCLUDING KPHX...KIWA...AND KSDL...
WEST/SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL REMAIN ELEVATED THROUGH MUCH OF THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS AS A DRY SURFACE COOL FRONT PASSES THROUGH CENTRAL
ARIZONA. NEAR 23/09-10Z...LIGHT SPEEDS UNDER 6KTS WITH VRB HEADINGS
POSSIBLE BEFORE TURNING WESTERLY AGAIN AS EARLY AS MIDDAY. HIGH
CLOUDS ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL QUICKLY CLEAR TO THE
EAST...LEAVING MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES FOR THE TERMINALS BY SUNRISE.

SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA/SOUTHWEST ARIZONA INCLUDING KIPL AND KBLH...
ELEVATED WEST WINDS TO PERSIST OVERNIGHT FOR KIPL AND KBLH...WITH
ISOLATED GUSTS IN THE 20KT RANGE STILL POSSIBLE THROUGH MIDNIGHT
LOCAL. SUSTAINED SPEEDS TO HOLD 10-15KTS GNLY THROUGH SUNRISE BEFORE
DROPPING 8KTS OR LESS FOR WEDNESDAY MORNING. IN THE WAKE OF A DRY
COOL FRONT PASSAGE...SKIES WILL REMAIN MOSTLY CLEAR THROUGH WEDNESDAY
MORNING.

AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDED TAFS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...
STRONG UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL APPROACH THE AREA ON FRIDAY AND MOVE
THROUGH ARIZONA/CALIFORNIA ON SATURDAY. AHEAD OF THE TROUGH...WINDS
WILL INCREASE QUITE A BIT FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND ITS POSSIBLE CRITICAL
THRESHOLDS COULD BE REALIZED IN SOME PARTS OF THE FORECAST AREA.
STILL NEED A LITTLE BETTER CONSISTENCY IN THE MODELS BEFORE GOING
WITH A FIRE WX WATCH AND WILL HOLD OFF AT THIS POINT. TEMPERATURES
ON SATURDAY AND SUNDAY /POST-TROUGH/ WILL BE SUBSTANTIALLY COOLER
AND HUMIDITIES WILL RECOVER QUITE A BIT...THUS FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS
WILL BE MUCH LESS. TEMPS WILL RECOVER NEXT WEEK AND CONSEQUENTLY
AFTERNOON HUMIDITIES WILL ONCE AGAIN DROP INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS.

&&

.PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

AZ...NONE.

CA...NONE.

&&

$$

VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/PHOENIX

DISCUSSION...PERCHA
AVIATION....NOLTE
FIRE WEATHER...LEINS/MO






000
FXUS65 KTWC 230912
AFDTWC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ
212 AM MST WED APR 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...BREEZY TO LOCALLY WINDY CONDITIONS AND SOME BLOWING DUST
WILL OCCUR THIS AFTERNOON AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES NORTH
OF THE AREA. EXPECT LESS WIND THURSDAY...THEN WINDS WILL INCREASE
FRIDAY AND BECOME STRONG AND GUSTY SATURDAY AS A STRONGER SYSTEM
MOVES ACROSS THE AREA. A FEW MAINLY MOUNTAIN SHOWERS NORTHEAST OF
TUCSON WILL BE POSSIBLE SATURDAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND 23/00Z UPPER-AIR PLOTS SHOW A
TROUGH AXIS EXTENDING FROM THE NORTHERN ROCKIES THROUGH EASTERN
NEVADA AND WESTERN UTAH AND INTO WESTERN ARIZONA AND NORTHERN BAJA.
IR SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS CLOUDINESS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM
EXTENDING ACROSS MUCH OF COLORADO...NEW MEXICO AND EXTREME SOUTHEAST
ARIZONA AND MUCH OF NORTHEASTERN SONORA. ALL OF THESE CLOUDS ARE
MOVING GENERALLY EAST TO NORTHEAST.

MODELS INDICATE THIS SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH THROUGH THE STATE
TODAY...RESULTING IN AN INCREASE IN WINDS THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE
BREEZY CATEGORY...BUT THE STRONGEST WINDS LIKELY TO OCCUR MAINLY
ALONG EITHER SIDE OF THE NEW MEXICO BORDER.

AS THE SYSTEM EXITS THE REGION TO THE EAST LATE TODAY...EXPECT ZONAL
FLOW TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE DESERT SOUTHWEST THROUGH AROUND MIDDAY
FRIDAY...BEFORE ANOTHER PACIFIC SYSTEM BEGINS TO AFFECT THE WEST
COAST. THIS SYSTEM WILL MOVE ACROSS CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA
LATE FRIDAY/EARLY SATURDAY...SETTING THE STAGE FOR AN INCREASE IN
CLOUD COVER AND WINDS...SIGNIFICANTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES AND A
THREAT FOR PRECIPITATION MAINLY FOR THE MOUNTAINS NORTHEAST OF
TUCSON TO THE WHITE MOUNTAINS ON SATURDAY. MODELS ARE ADVERTISING
THIS TO BE A FAIRLY COOL SYSTEM...WITH SNOW LEVELS FALLING TO AROUND
THE 6-7K FT LEVEL DURING THE DAY ON SATURDAY. THAT SAID...COULD SEE
A FEW FLAKES OVER THE HIGHEST PEAKS IN GRAHAM AND GREENLEE COUNTIES
ON SATURDAY...ALTHOUGH NOT EXPECTING MUCH...IF ANY ACCUMULATION. IN
ADDITION TO THE THREAT FOR PRECIPITATION...THIS SYSTEM WILL USHER IN
CONSIDERABLE WINDS FOR BOTH FRIDAY AND SATURDAY WITH THE STRONGEST
WINDS ON SATURDAY. EVEN WITH THE THREAT OF PRECIPITATION...BLOWING
DUST OVER THE LOWER DESERTS AND VALLEYS COULD POSE A PROBLEM...
ESPECIALLY SATURDAY SINCE ONLY EXPECTING VIRGA...SO RAIN NOT
REACHING THE GROUND WILL KEEP DESERT FLOORS DRY AND STRONG WINDS
WILL LIKELY KICK UP THE DUST...ESPECIALLY IN DUST PRONE AREAS.

THIS SYSTEM WILL EXIT THE REGION LATE SATURDAY INTO EARLY SUNDAY
WITH RIDGING BUILDING IN FROM THE WEST INTO THE EARLY PART OF THE
WORK WEEK RESULTING IN WARMING TEMPERATURES.

HIGH TEMPERATURES GENERALLY 2 TO 3 DEGS ABOVE NORMAL TODAY THROUGH
FRIDAY...THEN BELOW NORMAL HIGHS THIS WEEKEND AND ON MONDAY. THE
COOLEST DAYS WILL OCCUR BOTH SATURDAY AND SUNDAY WHEN HIGHS WILL
RANGE FROM 7 TO 10 DEGS BELOW NORMAL. NEAR NORMAL HIGHS EXPECTED
TUESDAY. NORMAL LOWS EXPECTED THURSDAY MORNING...THEN 3 TO 5 DEGS
ABOVE NORMAL FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY MORNINGS...THEN BELOW NORMAL
LOWS FOR SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY WITH READINGS 2 TO 5 DEGS BELOW
NORMAL...BUT THE COOLEST MORNING WILL OCCUR SUNDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...SURFACE WIND LESS THAN 10 KTS EARLY THIS MORNING.
SURFACE WIND WILL THEN BECOME WLY 15-20 KTS WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 30
KTS THIS AFTERNOON. OTHERWISE...SCT CIRRUS CLOUDS ABOVE 20K FT AGL
THRU THE DAY. AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR TAF AMENDMENTS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE EASTWARD ACROSS
THE STATE TODAY. THIS SYSTEM WILL BRING GUSTY WEST WINDS THIS
AFTERNOON AND EARLY THIS EVENING. SUSTAINED 20 FOOT WINDS WILL
GENERALLY BE 10-20 MPH. A VERY DRY SURFACE REGIME WILL PREVAIL WITH
MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES RANGING FROM THE UPPER SINGLE
DIGITS TO THE TEENS. COULD SEE A FEW PLACES NEAR THE NEW MEXICO
BORDER FLIRTING WITH RED FLAG CRITERIA THIS AFTERNOON...BUT
DURATIONS NOT LONG ENOUGH TO BE A CONCERN.

SOMEWHAT LESS WIND WILL OCCUR THURSDAY...THEN WINDS WILL INCREASE
AGAIN FRIDAY AND BECOME STRONG AND GUSTY SATURDAY AS ANOTHER LOW
PRESSURE TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE AREA. THERE APPEARS TO BE AN
INCREASED LIKELIHOOD OF WIDESPREAD CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS
SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND SATURDAY EVENING ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM.
THAT SAID...A FIRE WEATHER WATCH MAY BE REQUIRED DURING THE NEXT 12
TO 24 HOURS FOR SATURDAY...IF MODELS CONTINUE TO ADVERTISE STRONG
WINDS WITH THIS SYSTEM.

A FEW SHOWERS MAY OCCUR SATURDAY IN THE WHITE MOUNTAINS BUT DRY
CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE ELSEWHERE. THERE WILL STILL BE SOME
BREEZINESS SUNDAY...THEN LESS WIND SHOULD OCCUR MONDAY AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE AREA.

&&

.TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...YOUTUBE...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/TUCSON

MOLLERE








000
FXUS65 KPSR 230443
AFDPSR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PHOENIX AZ
943 PM MST TUE APR 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
BREEZY TO WINDY CONDITIONS WILL SLOWLY DECREASE TONIGHT AS A DRY
WEATHER SYSTEM PASSES ACROSS ARIZONA. ANTICIPATE COOLER HIGH
TEMPERATURES WEDNESDAY WITH READINGS CLOSE TO NORMAL. WARMER
TEMPERATURES WILL MAKE A RETURN THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. ANOTHER LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL AFFECT THE REGION FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. BREEZY
TO WINDY CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED ALONG WITH MUCH COOLER
TEMPERATURES SATURDAY. THERE IS ALSO A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS LATE
FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY NIGHT...MAINLY FOR THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF
SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA. ANTICIPATE A WARMING TREND MONDAY AND TUESDAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
WELL-DEFINED AND DEEP PACIFIC TROUGH AND SURFACE FRONTAL BOUNDARY
OBSERVED ON EVENING WV/IR IMAGERY AND MSLP ANALYSIS. HIGH CLOUDS
BISECT ARIZONA...WITH THE EASTERN HALF INCLUDING CENTRAL/EASTERN
MARICOPA COUNTY UNDER PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES...AND CLEAR SKIES
ACROSS WESTERN ARIZONA TOWARDS THE COLORADO RIVER VALLEY. ELEVATED
DAYTIME WINDS HAVE DIMINISHED THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING
HOURS...HOWEVER SOME ISOLATED STRONGER GUSTS OF 25 TO 30 MPH HAVE
BEEN REPORTED. WINDS WILL REMAIN BREEZY OVERNIGHT AND MAY SEE
ADDITIONAL GUSTS ACROSS CENTRAL ARIZONA AS THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY MOVES
THROUGH THE AREA...BUT GENERALLY FALL UNDER THE SPEEDS OBSERVED
EARLIER TODAY.

00Z NEIGHBOR RAOB DATA INDICATE THE COOL FRONTAL BOUNDARY HAD REACHED
KVEF...WHERE THE LOWER ATMO LAYERS THROUGH 700MB HAD COOLED ABOUT 8
DEGREES. KTUS HAD YET TO INDICATE THE SAME COOLING...WITH TEMPERATURE
PROFILE READINGS SIMILAR TO THOSE OBSERVED 24 HRS AGO. SFC
TEMPERATURES FOR WEDNESDAY EXPECTED COOLER THAN READINGS OBSERVED
THIS AFTERNOON IN LIGHT OF THIS COOLER AIRMASS MOVING THROUGH THE
STATE...FINALLY GIVING THE AREA AN AFTERNOON OF TEMPERATURES CLOSER
TO APRIL NORMALS. ALONG WITH THE COOLER TEMPERATURES...MUCH DRIER AIR
WILL FILTER INTO THE AREA...DROPPING DAYTIME DEWPOINTS INTO THE TEENS
BY THE AFTERNOON. RESULTING HUMIDITIES WILL FALL BELOW 10 PERCENT FOR
MANY LOCATIONS...BUT GENERALLY LIGHTER POST-FRONTAL
WINDS TOMORROW SHOULD KEEP WIDESPREAD CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER
CONDITIONS AT BAY.

FOR TONIGHT...CLOUDS AND THE SURFACE BOUNDARY WILL CONTINUE TO CLEAR
TO THE EAST WITH WINDS REMAINING BREEZY. MINOR ADJUSTMENTS WERE
NEEDED TO THE SKY COVER GRID TO CAPTURE THE THICKER CLOUDS CURRENTLY
OBSERVED AND THEIR EXIT OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. DEWPOINTS WERE ALSO
ADJUSTED TO MATCH CURRENT TRENDS AS UPSTREAM READINGS WERE ALREADY
BELOW EVEN THE RAW GRIDDED FORECAST GUIDANCE. REMAINDER OF THE
FORECAST DISCUSSION STILL APPLICABLE FOR WEDNESDAY AND BEYOND.

&&

.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION /ISSUED AT 325 AM MST/PDT/...
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...
BEHIND THE FRONT ON WEDNESDAY LOOK FOR HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S ACROSS
THE LOWER DESERTS. ANTICIPATE LESS WIND THOUGH A TRAILING SHORT WAVE
WILL MAINTAIN SOME BREEZINESS. A FLAT RIDGE PASSES BY THURSDAY WITH
HIGHS A FEW DEGREES WARMER.

FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...
THE NEXT PACIFIC SYSTEM WILL AFFECT OUR FORECAST AREA FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY. THE GFS CONTINUES TO BE A BIT FASTER THAN THE ECWMF...WITH
THE GEM IN BETWEEN. IN SHORT...BREEZY TO WINDY CONDITIONS DEVELOP
FRIDAY AFTERNOON...WITH BREEZINESS CONTINUING FRIDAY NIGHT AND
SATURDAY. SPEEDS FRIDAY AFTERNOON ARE LOOKING QUITE SIMILAR TO
TODAY...TUESDAY. EVENING AND OVERNIGHT BREEZINESS WILL BE STRONGER
THOUGH. THUS ANTICIPATE RED FLAG POTENTIAL AND POSSIBLY WIND
ADVISORY CONDITIONS SIMILAR TO TODAY. THE NEXT SYSTEM WILL DIG
DEEPER AND BRING EVEN COOLER AIR. MADE SOME SLIGHT DOWNWARD
ADJUSTMENTS TO THE HIGHS FOR SATURDAY WITH LOWER DESERT HIGHS IN
UPPER 70S. ALSO INTRODUCED SOME SLIGHT CHANCE POPS IN PORTIONS OF
OUR FORECAST AREA FOR LATE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY NIGHT...MAINLY
THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA. ANTICIPATE SLIGHTLY
WARMER HIGHS SUNDAY WITH DRY NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT.

MONDAY AND TUESDAY...
THE FLOW AMPLIFIES EARLY NEXT WEEK FOR RIDGING OVER THE WEST COAST
FOR A WARMING TREND. LINGERING TROUGHING OVER THE CENTRAL CONUS MAY
KEEP THE TEMPS FROM SHOOTING UP EXCESSIVELY...BUT STILL LOOK FOR
HIGHS GETTING INTO THE 90S BY TUESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...
SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA INCLUDING KPHX...KIWA...AND KSDL...
WEST/SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL REMAIN ELEVATED THROUGH MUCH OF THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS AS A DRY SURFACE COOL FRONT PASSES THROUGH CENTRAL
ARIZONA. NEAR 23/09-10Z...LIGHT SPEEDS UNDER 6KTS WITH VRB HEADINGS
POSSIBLE BEFORE TURNING WESTERLY AGAIN AS EARLY AS MIDDAY. HIGH
CLOUDS ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL QUICKLY CLEAR TO THE
EAST...LEAVING MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES FOR THE TERMINALS BY SUNRISE.

SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA/SOUTHWEST ARIZONA INCLUDING KIPL AND KBLH...
ELEVATED WEST WINDS TO PERSIST OVERNIGHT FOR KIPL AND KBLH...WITH
ISOLATED GUSTS IN THE 20KT RANGE STILL POSSIBLE THROUGH MIDNIGHT
LOCAL. SUSTAINED SPEEDS TO HOLD 10-15KTS GNLY THROUGH SUNRISE BEFORE
DROPPING 8KTS OR LESS FOR WEDNESDAY MORNING. IN THE WAKE OF A DRY
COOL FRONT PASSAGE...SKIES WILL REMAIN MOSTLY CLEAR THROUGH WEDNESDAY
MORNING.

AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDED TAFS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...
STRONG UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL APPROACH THE AREA ON FRIDAY AND MOVE
THROUGH ARIZONA/CALIFORNIA ON SATURDAY. AHEAD OF THE TROUGH...WINDS
WILL INCREASE QUITE A BIT FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND ITS POSSIBLE CRITICAL
THRESHOLDS COULD BE REALIZED IN SOME PARTS OF THE FORECAST AREA.
STILL NEED A LITTLE BETTER CONSISTENCY IN THE MODELS BEFORE GOING
WITH A FIRE WX WATCH AND WILL HOLD OFF AT THIS POINT. TEMPERATURES
ON SATURDAY AND SUNDAY /POST-TROUGH/ WILL BE SUBSTANTIALLY COOLER
AND HUMIDITIES WILL RECOVER QUITE A BIT...THUS FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS
WILL BE MUCH LESS. TEMPS WILL RECOVER NEXT WEEK AND CONSEQUENTLY
AFTERNOON HUMIDITIES WILL ONCE AGAIN DROP INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS.

&&

.PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

AZ...NONE.

CA...NONE.

&&

$$

VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/PHOENIX

DISCUSSION...NOLTE
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...AJ/MEYERS
AVIATION....NOLTE
FIRE WEATHER...LEINS/MO





000
FXUS65 KFGZ 230349
AFDFGZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ
849 PM MST TUE APR 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
FAIR AND MILD CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.
ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BRING WINDY CONDITIONS FRIDAY
WITH COOLER TEMPERATURES AND A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS THIS WEEKEND.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
WINDS ARE SLOWLY TAPERING OFF THIS EVENING...AND WIND ADVISORIES
AND RED FLAG WARNING HAVE ALL EXPIRED. STILL...LOCALLY GUSTY WINDS
WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE NIGHT. WINDS WILL BE NOTICEABLY LIGHTER
DURING THE DAY WEDNESDAY. SEASONABLY MILD DAYTIME TEMPS WILL
CONTINUE.

&&

.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION /250 PM MST/...
THE SCATTERED CU AND OVERCAST CIRRUS ARE MOVING EAST WITH SLOWLY
CLEARING SKIES EXPECTED OVERNIGHT. BREEZY WINDS SHOULD CONTINUE
TONIGHT AS WINDS ALOFT PEAK AHEAD OF THE FRONT. ON
WEDNESDAY...DAYTIME TEMPERATURES WILL COOL TO NEAR NORMAL WITH
WINDY CONDITIONS CONTINUING ACROSS PORTIONS OF NAVAJO AND APACHE
COUNTIES.

THURSDAY...NORTHERN ARIZONA WILL EXPERIENCE A BRIEF PERIOD OF HIGH
PRESSURE WITH NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES...LIGHT
AFTERNOON BREEZES.

THE NEXT TROUGH AND COLD FRONT ARE FORECAST TO MOVE ONTO THE WEST
COAST FRIDAY WITH ANOTHER ROUND OF GUSTY WINDS FOR NORTHERN
ARIZONA. PROGS ARE BETTER TIMING AGREEMENT AND SHOW THIS SYSTEM
CROSSING OUR AREA LATE FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...WITH THE BEST
PRECIP CHANCES FRIDAY NIGHT IN NORTHWEST AZ AND ON SATURDAY ACROSS
THE AREA. SNOW LEVELS COULD BE AS LOW AS 6000 FEET SATURDAY
MORNING WEST OF A PAGE TO PAYSON LINE. MODELS DISAGREE ON HOW FAST
THE SYSTEM TO MOVE OUT...WITH THE ECMWF SLOWER AND SUGGESTING A
COLD AND SHOWERY SUNDAY AND LEFT THE SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS IN
FOR NOW.

MONDAY AND TUESDAY ARE LOOKING DRY AT THIS TIME WITH NORTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT.

&&

.AVIATION...
FOR THE 06Z PACKAGE...EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS OVER THE NEXT 24
HOURS UNDER VARIABLE HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS. SOUTHWEST WINDS TO 5-15
KTS WITH LOCAL GUSTS TO 20 KTS OVERNIGHT. AFTER 18Z
WEDNESDAY...WINDS WILL STRENGTHEN AGAIN TO 10-20 KTS GUSTING TO
30 KTS. AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDMENTS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...DRY CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL BUT AFTERNOON
WIND SPEEDS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER
THRESHOLDS.

FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM FROM OVER THE
PACIFIC WILL APPROACH ARIZONA WITH INCREASING WINDS ON FRIDAY
THEN MOVE ACROSS THE AREA STARTING SATURDAY WITH WINDY CONDITIONS
AND A CHANCE OF SHOWERS. CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL BE
POSSIBLE OVER PORTIONS OF NORTHERN ARIZONA ON FRIDAY.

&&

.FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC.........KD/DL
AVIATION.......KD
FIRE WEATHER...KD/MCCOLLUM

FOR NORTHERN ARIZONA WEATHER INFORMATION VISIT
WEATHER.GOV/FLAGSTAFF








000
FXUS65 KTWC 230331
AFDTWC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ
831 PM MST TUE APR 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...BREEZY TO LOCALLY WINDY CONDITIONS AND SOME BLOWING DUST
WILL OCCUR WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES NORTH
OF THE AREA. EXPECT LESS WIND THURSDAY...THEN WINDS WILL INCREASE
FRIDAY AND BECOME STRONG AND GUSTY SATURDAY AS A STRONGER SYSTEM
MOVES ACROSS THE AREA. A FEW MAINLY MOUNTAIN SHOWERS NORTHEAST OF
TUCSON WILL BE POSSIBLE SATURDAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...WINDS CONTINUED TO DIMINISH IN SPEED LATE THIS EVENING
WITH SOME HIGH CLOUDS STILL SPREADING ACROSS THE AREA. LOOKING
AT ANOTHER ROUND OF GUSTY WINDS TOMORROW AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS A
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM PASSES TO OUR NORTH. THE CURRENT FORECAST
APPEARED TO HANDLE THIS WELL...SO NO UPDATES ANTICIPATED THIS
EVENING. PLEASE REFER TO THE ADDITIONAL SECTIONS FOR MORE DETAILS.

&&

.AVIATION...SURFACE WIND LESS THAN 10 KTS ACROSS MUCH OF SE AZ
TONIGHT AND EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING. SURFACE WIND WILL THEN BECOME
WLY 12-20 KTS WITH GUSTS TO 30 KTS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. OTHERWISE...
BKN CIRRUS CLOUDS ABOVE 20K FT AGL THRU WEDNESDAY MORNING. AVIATION
DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR TAF AMENDMENTS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE NEAR THE CALIFORNIA COAST
WILL MOVE EASTWARD ACROSS ARIZONA WEDNESDAY. THIS SYSTEM WILL BRING
GUSTY WEST WINDS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND WEDNESDAY EVENING.
SUSTAINED 20 FOOT WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE 10-20 MPH WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON. A VERY DRY SURFACE REGIME WILL PREVAIL WITH MINIMUM
RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES RANGING FROM THE UPPER SINGLE DIGITS TO THE
TEENS.

SOMEWHAT LESS WIND WILL OCCUR THURSDAY...THEN WINDS WILL INCREASE
AGAIN FRIDAY AND BECOME STRONG AND GUSTY SATURDAY AS ANOTHER LOW
PRESSURE TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE AREA. THERE APPEARS TO BE AN
INCREASED LIKELIHOOD OF WIDESPREAD CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS
SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND SATURDAY EVENING ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM.
A FEW SHOWERS MAY OCCUR SATURDAY IN THE WHITE MOUNTAINS BUT DRY
CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE ELSEWHERE. THERE WILL STILL BE SOME
BREEZINESS SUNDAY...THEN LESS WIND SHOULD OCCUR MONDAY AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE AREA.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...THE WEST COAST TROUGH WILL THEN MOVE EWD INTO THE
CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN ROCKIES WED AFTERNOON. A FAIRLY TIGHT MID-LEVEL
GRADIENT WILL PROVIDE YET ANOTHER DAY OF BREEZY TO LOCALLY WINDY
WEST WINDS TOMORROW...WITH AREAS OF BLOWING DUST POSSIBLE FROM
TUCSON EASTWARD TO THE NEW MEXICO BORDER DURING THE AFTERNOON. JUST
LIKE THIS AFTERNOON...BRIEF LOCALIZED CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER
CONDITIONS WILL BE PRESENT ALONG THE ARIZONA AND NEW MEXICO BORDER
AND EXTREME SOUTHEAST COCHISE COUNTY...BUT CONDITIONS ARE NOT
EXPECTED TO BE WIDESPREAD. THEREFORE...WE DECIDED TO CANCEL THE FIRE
WEATHER WATCH FOR WEDNESDAY.

SOMEWHAT LESS WIND SHOULD OCCUR THUR UNDER WLY FLOW ALOFT...THEN
FLOW ALOFT FRI WILL BECOME INCREASINGLY SWLY AS THE NEXT UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH APPROACHES THE WEST COAST. THE MID-LEVEL GRADIENT MAY SUPPORT
SOME BREEZY SWLY WINDS FRI. STRONGER WINDS WILL OCCUR SAT AS THE
UPPER TROUGH DIGS FURTHER SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE SWRN CONUS. AT THIS
TIME...APPEARS THIS SYSTEM STANDS THE BEST CHANCE TO ACHIEVE WIND
ADVISORY CRITERIA. DRY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE SAT AND SAT NIGHT
EXCEPT FOR A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS ACROSS THE WHITE MOUNTAINS.
THE UPPER TROUGH WILL MOVE EWD INTO THE CENTRAL CONUS PLAINS SUN. A
FAIRLY TIGHT MID-LEVEL GRADIENT WILL SUPPORT GUSTY NWLY WINDS SUN
AFTERNOON...PARTICULARLY IN THE UPPER GILA RIVER VALLEY INCLUDING
SAFFORD. DRY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE MON UNDER NWLY FLOW ALOFT.

HIGH TEMPS THIS AFTERNOON WILL BE NEARLY IDENTICAL TO TEMPS ACHIEVED
MON. COOLER TEMPS WILL THEN OCCUR WED FOLLOWED BY A SLIGHT WARMING
TREND THUR-FRI. EXPECT COOLER TEMPS THIS WEEKEND AS THE STRONGER
UPPER TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE AREA...THEN HIGH TEMPS NEXT MON ARE
FORECAST TO RETURN CLOSE TO SEASONAL NORMALS.

&&

.TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...YOUTUBE...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/TUCSON







    US Dept of Commerce
    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration
    National Weather Service
    1325 East West Highway
    Silver Spring, MD 20910
    Page Author: NWS Internet Services Team
Disclaimer
Information Quality
Credits
Glossary
Privacy Policy
Freedom of Information Act (FOIA)
About Us
Career Opportunities