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000
FXUS65 KFGZ 160447
AFDFGZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ
945 PM MST TUE APR 15 2014

.SYNOPSIS...EXPECT WARM AND DRY WEATHER THROUGH THURSDAY...WITH
BREEZY WINDS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. A WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL
BRING CLOUDS AND A CHANCE OF SHOWERS FROM FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY
NIGHT. DRY AND WARMER WEATHER WILL RETURN FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...DRY WEST-NORTHWEST FLOW FOR THE NEXT TWO DAYS WILL
TRANSITION TO A S/WV RIDGE THURSDAY...AND THEN A WEAK LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. THIS MEANS SEVERAL DAYS OF ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES AND AFTERNOON BREEZES...WITH JUST SOME HIGH CLOUD COVER
FROM TIME TO TIME. THE SYSTEM FRIDAY AND SATURDAY HAS ENOUGH COLD
MID-LEVEL AIR FOR SCATTERED HIGH-BASED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
A MAJOR PRECIPITATION EVENT IS NOT EXPECTED. ALL THESE TRENDS ARE
COVERED IN THE CURRENT FORECAST AND NO UPDATES ARE NEEDED TONIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 06Z PACKAGE...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR
THE NEXT 24 HOURS. AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDMENTS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...A WEAK WEATHER DISTURBANCE WILL BRING INCREASING
WINDS AND CLOUDINESS WEDNESDAY...ALONG WITH MINIMUM RELATIVE
HUMIDITIES OF 6 TO 12 PERCENT. WIND SPEEDS WILL APPROACH CRITICAL
FIRE WEATHER THRESHOLDS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AROUND THE WHITE
MOUNTAINS AND EASTERN LITTLE COLORADO RIVER VALLEY. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL MOVE ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST THURSDAY BRINGING LIGHTER WINDS BUT
CONTINUED DRY CONDITIONS.

FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...A PACIFIC LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE
ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST FRIDAY AND SATURDAY AND WILL BRING A CHANCE OF
SHOWERS ALONG WITH HIGHER AFTERNOON RELATIVE HUMIDITY. HIGH PRESSURE
SUNDAY WILL RESULT IN LIGHT WINDS...LOWER RELATIVE HUMIDITY...AND
DRY CONDITIONS.

.FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC.........PETERSON
AVIATION.......PETERSON
FIRE WEATHER...DJO

FOR NORTHERN ARIZONA WEATHER INFORMATION VISIT
WEATHER.GOV/FLAGSTAFF




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000
FXUS65 KPSR 160332
AFDPSR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PHOENIX AZ
830 PM MST TUE APR 15 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
DRY WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL PERSIST THROUGH MUCH OF THE WORK WEEK
WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES WARMING INTO THE 90S OVER THE WARMER DESERTS.
A WEAK UPPER LEVEL LOW APPROACHING FROM THE EAST PACIFIC WILL SPREAD
INCREASING MOISTURE AND CLOUDS INTO THE AREA FRIDAY INTO THE
EARLY WEEKEND...LEADING TO A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS ACROSS SOUTH
CENTRAL ARIZONA AND THE POSSIBILITY FOR SLIGHTLY COOLER DAYTIME
TEMPERATURES. THE COOL DOWN WILL BE SHORT LIVED...AS HIGH PRESSURE
QUICKLY RETURNS FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
EVENING WV IMAGERY DEPICTS THE FORECAST AREA TRAPPED IN WEAK NWLY
FLOW BETWEEN THE MAIN MID LATITUDE JET AND PROGRESSIVE SHORTWAVES
ACROSS THE NRN ROCKIES...AND ANTI-CYCLONIC SUBTROPICAL FLOW OVER THE
SERN PACIFIC BASIN. TRAJECTORY ANALYSIS SUGGESTS MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES
WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS FLANKED BY MORE EXTENSIVE
CIRRUS BORDERING THE CWA TO BOTH THE NORTH AND SOUTH. WITH NO
IMPACTS ANTICIPATED THROUGH AT LEAST THE NEXT 24 HOURS...AND
PREVIOUS FORECAST TRENDS HOLDING NICELY...LITTLE TO NO CHANGES WERE
NECESSARY IN THIS EVENINGS UPDATE.

&&

.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
/220 PM MST TUE APR 15 2014/
DRY NORTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL REDEVELOP WEDNESDAY AS A RIDGE BUILDS
ALONG THE WEST COAST AND A TROUGH MOVES INTO THE FOUR CORNERS. A
DISCERNIBLE WEAKENING TREND IS NOTED IN BOTH THE GFS/NAM WITH REGARD
TO THE AMPLITUDE OF THIS TROUGH. CONSEQUENTLY...HIGH TEMPERATURES
HAVE BEEN NUDGED UPWARDS WEDNESDAY INTO THE LOWER 90S ACROSS THE
LOWER DESERTS UNDER MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES. ALTHOUGH SOME AFTERNOON
BREEZINESS IS ALSO ANTICIPATED ACROSS SOUTH-CENTRAL AZ...THE
MAGNITUDE OF THE WIND HAS ALSO TRENDED DOWNWARD OVER THE PAST DAY OR
SO.

BY LATE THURSDAY...LONGWAVE TROUGHING OVER THE WEST WILL SYNC UP
WITH AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE...CURRENTLY CIRCULATING IN THE EASTERN
PACIFIC...INTRODUCING SOUTH/SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT INTO THE
SOUTHWEST STATES. THIS LOW AND LIMITED AMOUNT PACIFIC MOISTURE WILL
MOVE THROUGH THE AREA FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY. MODEL SOUNDINGS PLOT THE
MAJORITY OF THE MOISTURE AT AND ABOVE THE 600MB LEVEL WITH VERY DRY
SUB-CLOUD LAYERS AND INVERTED V TRACES BELOW...PARTICULARLY OVER
SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA. STILL DO NOT BELIEVE THIS SYSTEM TO BE MOIST
ENOUGH TO WARRANT ANYTHING MORE THAN LOW-END SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR
OVERNIGHT FRIDAY AND EARLY SATURDAY ACROSS CENTRAL ARIZONA WITH ONLY
SLIGHTLY HIGHER AMOUNTS OVER THE MORE FAVORABLY ORIENTED HIGHER
TERRAIN. SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL IS NOT EXPECTED...BUT LIGHT SPRINKLES
AND VIRGA ARE MORE LIKELY FROM MARICOPA COUNTY EASTWARD. AS WE`VE
ALREADY SEEN BEFORE THIS SPRING...HIGH BASED SHOWERS AND DRY
SUB-CLOUD LAYERS COULD ENHANCE WIND GUSTS IN THE AFTERNOON HOURS.
WITH THE LOWER HEIGHTS...STILL IN THE 568-570DM RANGE AT 500MB AND
850MB TEMPS FALLING IN THE 16C TO 17C RANGE...TEMPERATURES SHOULD
SEE A SLIGHT COOL DOWN AND DROP BACK TOWARDS MORE SEASONABLE
READINGS IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.

BEYOND SATURDAY...CONFIDENCE IN THE MODEL FORECASTS BEGINS TO WANE.
500MB HEIGHTS RAPIDLY RISE INTO THE 580DM RANGE...BRINGING THE 90S
BACK FOR HIGH TEMPERATURES SUNDAY. HOWEVER...BEYOND THAT
POINT...MODEL SOLUTIONS BEGIN TO GREATLY DIVERGE BETWEEN STRONG
RIDGING DIRECTLY OVERHEAD (ECMWF) VERSUS RIDGING ANCHORED TO OUR EAST
(GFS). THIS LEADS TO A WIDE RANGE FOR POTENTIAL HIGH TEMPERATURES
EARLY NEXT WEEK...WITH THE ECMWF INTRODUCING WIDESPREAD TRIPLE-DIGIT
READINGS WHILE THE COOLER GFS LEAVES US IN THE 90S. FOR NOW WENT WITH
A PERSISTENCE HIGH TEMPERATURE FORECAST...LOW TO MID 90S FOR EARLY
NEXT WEEK WITH DRY CONDITIONS AND MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES.

&&

.AVIATION...
SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA INCLUDING KPHX...KIWA...AND KSDL...AND
SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA AND SOUTHWEST ARIZONA INCLUDING KIPL AND KBLH...

NO AVIATION IMPACTS THROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON WITH MOSTLY CLEAR
SKIES THROUGH THE PERIOD. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL STAY VERY WEAK
THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING YIELDING FREQUENT LIGHT AND VARIABLE WIND
HEADINGS. ONLY A SLIGHT INCREASE IN THE GRADIENT WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON
WILL ALLOW WEST WINDS TO INCREASE ABOVE 10KT AT SOME AERODROMES.

AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDED TAFS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...
A WEAK WEATHER DISTURBANCE WILL BRING A MODEST INCREASE IN
MOISTURE...CLOUDINESS...AND AFTERNOON BREEZINESS TO THE DISTRICT
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WITH THIS IMPULSE...PARTICULARLY ACROSS THE HIGHER
TERRAIN NORTH AND EAST OF PHOENIX. EVEN WITH SOMEWHAT MORE MOIST
CONDITIONS...AFTERNOON HUMIDITY LEVELS WILL STILL FALL INTO THE
TEENS...AND ANY THUNDERSTORM GENERATED GUSTY WINDS MAY POSE AN
ENHANCED FIRE WEATHER RISK GIVEN THE ANTECEDENT DRY FUEL CONDITIONS.
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING OVER THE DESERT SOUTHWEST FROM THE WEST WILL
THEN BRING DRY CONDITIONS BACK OVER THE REGION...ALONG WITH WARMER
TEMPERATURES FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY. THE FORECAST FOR NEXT TUESDAY IS
MUCH MORE UNCERTAIN...WITH SOME COMPUTER MODELS KEEPING HIGH
PRESSURE IN PLACE...WITH DRY CONDITIONS AND ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES CONTINUING...WHILE OTHERS ARE BRINGING A VIGOROUS LOW
PRESSURE CENTER INLAND OVER THE REGION...WHICH WOULD BRING MUCH
COOLER TEMPERATURES...GUSTY WINDS...AND A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS TO THE
DISTRICT.

&&

.PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

AZ...NONE.

CA...NONE.

&&

$$

VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/PHOENIX

DISCUSSION...MO
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...HIRSCH/NOLTE
AVIATION...MO
FIRE WEATHER...PERCHA






000
FXUS65 KPSR 160332
AFDPSR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PHOENIX AZ
830 PM MST TUE APR 15 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
DRY WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL PERSIST THROUGH MUCH OF THE WORK WEEK
WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES WARMING INTO THE 90S OVER THE WARMER DESERTS.
A WEAK UPPER LEVEL LOW APPROACHING FROM THE EAST PACIFIC WILL SPREAD
INCREASING MOISTURE AND CLOUDS INTO THE AREA FRIDAY INTO THE
EARLY WEEKEND...LEADING TO A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS ACROSS SOUTH
CENTRAL ARIZONA AND THE POSSIBILITY FOR SLIGHTLY COOLER DAYTIME
TEMPERATURES. THE COOL DOWN WILL BE SHORT LIVED...AS HIGH PRESSURE
QUICKLY RETURNS FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
EVENING WV IMAGERY DEPICTS THE FORECAST AREA TRAPPED IN WEAK NWLY
FLOW BETWEEN THE MAIN MID LATITUDE JET AND PROGRESSIVE SHORTWAVES
ACROSS THE NRN ROCKIES...AND ANTI-CYCLONIC SUBTROPICAL FLOW OVER THE
SERN PACIFIC BASIN. TRAJECTORY ANALYSIS SUGGESTS MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES
WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS FLANKED BY MORE EXTENSIVE
CIRRUS BORDERING THE CWA TO BOTH THE NORTH AND SOUTH. WITH NO
IMPACTS ANTICIPATED THROUGH AT LEAST THE NEXT 24 HOURS...AND
PREVIOUS FORECAST TRENDS HOLDING NICELY...LITTLE TO NO CHANGES WERE
NECESSARY IN THIS EVENINGS UPDATE.

&&

.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
/220 PM MST TUE APR 15 2014/
DRY NORTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL REDEVELOP WEDNESDAY AS A RIDGE BUILDS
ALONG THE WEST COAST AND A TROUGH MOVES INTO THE FOUR CORNERS. A
DISCERNIBLE WEAKENING TREND IS NOTED IN BOTH THE GFS/NAM WITH REGARD
TO THE AMPLITUDE OF THIS TROUGH. CONSEQUENTLY...HIGH TEMPERATURES
HAVE BEEN NUDGED UPWARDS WEDNESDAY INTO THE LOWER 90S ACROSS THE
LOWER DESERTS UNDER MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES. ALTHOUGH SOME AFTERNOON
BREEZINESS IS ALSO ANTICIPATED ACROSS SOUTH-CENTRAL AZ...THE
MAGNITUDE OF THE WIND HAS ALSO TRENDED DOWNWARD OVER THE PAST DAY OR
SO.

BY LATE THURSDAY...LONGWAVE TROUGHING OVER THE WEST WILL SYNC UP
WITH AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE...CURRENTLY CIRCULATING IN THE EASTERN
PACIFIC...INTRODUCING SOUTH/SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT INTO THE
SOUTHWEST STATES. THIS LOW AND LIMITED AMOUNT PACIFIC MOISTURE WILL
MOVE THROUGH THE AREA FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY. MODEL SOUNDINGS PLOT THE
MAJORITY OF THE MOISTURE AT AND ABOVE THE 600MB LEVEL WITH VERY DRY
SUB-CLOUD LAYERS AND INVERTED V TRACES BELOW...PARTICULARLY OVER
SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA. STILL DO NOT BELIEVE THIS SYSTEM TO BE MOIST
ENOUGH TO WARRANT ANYTHING MORE THAN LOW-END SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR
OVERNIGHT FRIDAY AND EARLY SATURDAY ACROSS CENTRAL ARIZONA WITH ONLY
SLIGHTLY HIGHER AMOUNTS OVER THE MORE FAVORABLY ORIENTED HIGHER
TERRAIN. SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL IS NOT EXPECTED...BUT LIGHT SPRINKLES
AND VIRGA ARE MORE LIKELY FROM MARICOPA COUNTY EASTWARD. AS WE`VE
ALREADY SEEN BEFORE THIS SPRING...HIGH BASED SHOWERS AND DRY
SUB-CLOUD LAYERS COULD ENHANCE WIND GUSTS IN THE AFTERNOON HOURS.
WITH THE LOWER HEIGHTS...STILL IN THE 568-570DM RANGE AT 500MB AND
850MB TEMPS FALLING IN THE 16C TO 17C RANGE...TEMPERATURES SHOULD
SEE A SLIGHT COOL DOWN AND DROP BACK TOWARDS MORE SEASONABLE
READINGS IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.

BEYOND SATURDAY...CONFIDENCE IN THE MODEL FORECASTS BEGINS TO WANE.
500MB HEIGHTS RAPIDLY RISE INTO THE 580DM RANGE...BRINGING THE 90S
BACK FOR HIGH TEMPERATURES SUNDAY. HOWEVER...BEYOND THAT
POINT...MODEL SOLUTIONS BEGIN TO GREATLY DIVERGE BETWEEN STRONG
RIDGING DIRECTLY OVERHEAD (ECMWF) VERSUS RIDGING ANCHORED TO OUR EAST
(GFS). THIS LEADS TO A WIDE RANGE FOR POTENTIAL HIGH TEMPERATURES
EARLY NEXT WEEK...WITH THE ECMWF INTRODUCING WIDESPREAD TRIPLE-DIGIT
READINGS WHILE THE COOLER GFS LEAVES US IN THE 90S. FOR NOW WENT WITH
A PERSISTENCE HIGH TEMPERATURE FORECAST...LOW TO MID 90S FOR EARLY
NEXT WEEK WITH DRY CONDITIONS AND MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES.

&&

.AVIATION...
SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA INCLUDING KPHX...KIWA...AND KSDL...AND
SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA AND SOUTHWEST ARIZONA INCLUDING KIPL AND KBLH...

NO AVIATION IMPACTS THROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON WITH MOSTLY CLEAR
SKIES THROUGH THE PERIOD. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL STAY VERY WEAK
THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING YIELDING FREQUENT LIGHT AND VARIABLE WIND
HEADINGS. ONLY A SLIGHT INCREASE IN THE GRADIENT WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON
WILL ALLOW WEST WINDS TO INCREASE ABOVE 10KT AT SOME AERODROMES.

AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDED TAFS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...
A WEAK WEATHER DISTURBANCE WILL BRING A MODEST INCREASE IN
MOISTURE...CLOUDINESS...AND AFTERNOON BREEZINESS TO THE DISTRICT
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WITH THIS IMPULSE...PARTICULARLY ACROSS THE HIGHER
TERRAIN NORTH AND EAST OF PHOENIX. EVEN WITH SOMEWHAT MORE MOIST
CONDITIONS...AFTERNOON HUMIDITY LEVELS WILL STILL FALL INTO THE
TEENS...AND ANY THUNDERSTORM GENERATED GUSTY WINDS MAY POSE AN
ENHANCED FIRE WEATHER RISK GIVEN THE ANTECEDENT DRY FUEL CONDITIONS.
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING OVER THE DESERT SOUTHWEST FROM THE WEST WILL
THEN BRING DRY CONDITIONS BACK OVER THE REGION...ALONG WITH WARMER
TEMPERATURES FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY. THE FORECAST FOR NEXT TUESDAY IS
MUCH MORE UNCERTAIN...WITH SOME COMPUTER MODELS KEEPING HIGH
PRESSURE IN PLACE...WITH DRY CONDITIONS AND ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES CONTINUING...WHILE OTHERS ARE BRINGING A VIGOROUS LOW
PRESSURE CENTER INLAND OVER THE REGION...WHICH WOULD BRING MUCH
COOLER TEMPERATURES...GUSTY WINDS...AND A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS TO THE
DISTRICT.

&&

.PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

AZ...NONE.

CA...NONE.

&&

$$

VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/PHOENIX

DISCUSSION...MO
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...HIRSCH/NOLTE
AVIATION...MO
FIRE WEATHER...PERCHA






  [top]

000
FXUS65 KTWC 160318
AFDTWC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ
818 PM MST TUE APR 15 2014

.SYNOPSIS...DRY AND LOCALLY BREEZY CONDITIONS ALONG WITH ABOVE
AVERAGE TEMPERATURES CAN BE ANTICIPATED THROUGH THURSDAY. A PACIFIC
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL THEN BRING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS LATE FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY. DRY CONDITIONS WITH A
PRONOUNCED WARMING TREND WILL OCCUR EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...A STEADY STREAM OF HIGH CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE MOVE IN
NORTHEAST OF TUCSON AS NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT PERSIST. THERE IS A
SECOND STREAM SOUTH OF THE BORDER THOUGH DON`T FORESEE MUCH MAKING
IT INTO FORECAST AREA. OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS A WEAK IMPULSE WILL
SLIDE DOWN THE NORTHWEST FLOW AND USHER IN BREEZY WINDS...ESPECIALLY
EAST OF THE SAFFORD TO DOUGLAS LINE. A RED FLAG WARNING WILL BE IN
EFFECT TOMORROW AT 1 PM FOR THE AREAS EAST OF THE LINE MENTIONED
ABOVE. CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO SLOWLY IMPROVE AFTER SUNSET. FOR
FURTHER FORECAST DETAILS SEE SECTIONS BELOW.

&&

.AVIATION...A WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL BRING SOME CIRRUS
CLOUDS TO SE AZ THRU WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. GUSTY ELY/SELY SURFACE
WINDS ARE DIMINISHING THIS AFTERNOON...AND WILL BECOME WLY/NWLY
GENERALLY LESS THAN 10 KTS LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING.
STRONGER AND GUSTY WEST WINDS WILL OCCUR WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AS A
DISTURBANCE MOVES ACROSS THE FOUR CORNERS REGION...INCREASING TO
10-20 KTS AFTER 16/19Z WITH HIGHER GUSTS IN EASTERN AREAS SUCH AS
NEAR KDUG. AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR TAF AMENDMENTS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...GUSTY EAST WINDS DIMINISHING THIS AFTERNOON...WINDS
OVERNIGHT GENERALLY LIGHT AND DIURNAL IN NATURE EXCEPT FOR GRADUALLY
INCREASING WEST WINDS AT HIGHER ELEVATIONS AFTER MIDNIGHT. A WEATHER
SYSTEM BRUSHING BY WELL NORTH OF THE AREA WILL BRING BREEZY TO
LOCALLY WINDY CONDITIONS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...MAINLY IN FAR EASTERN
AREAS. WITH THE VERY LOW MINIMUM RH VALUES CONTINUING (WELL BELOW 10
PERCENT IN MOST LOCATIONS) THE FIRE WEATHER WATCH HAS BEEN UPGRADED
TO A RED FLAG WARNING FOR WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...THE AREA
HAS BEEN REDUCED TO JUST EASTERN PORTIONS OF ZONE 152 BORDERING NEW
MEXICO (INCLUDING EASTERN COCHISE...SOUTHEAST GRAHAM AND SOUTHERN
GREENLEE COUNTIES). ELSEWHERE...SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEXT EXPECTED TO
BE QUITE AS STRONG OR PERSISTENT.

ON FRIDAY AND SATURDAY A SYSTEM MOVING IN FROM THE PACIFIC WILL
BRING A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS LATE FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY. LOWER
LEVELS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN ON THE DRIER SIDE...SO A BIG CONCERN
WOULD BE GUSTY AND ERRATIC THUNDERSTORM OUTFLOWS WITH LITTLE IN THE
WAY OF SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION/ ISSUED AT 232 PM MST/...A WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL
CONTINUE TO SPREAD SOME HIGH CLOUDS ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT AND
WEDNESDAY. MODELS TRACK A SYSTEM WELL TO THE NORTH OF SOUTHERN
ARIZONA...BUT GUSTY WINDS WILL LIKELY ACCOMPANY THIS FEATURE
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. THIS GUSTINESS IN COMBINATION
WITH DRY CONDITIONS WILL MAKE FOR A CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER
ENVIRONMENT ACROSS EXTREME SOUTHEAST ARIZONA WEDNESDAY. PLEASE REFER
TO THE FIRE WEATHER SECTION IN THIS PRODUCT OF MORE DETAILS.

MODELS WERE IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH TRACKING A SYSTEM INTO
CALIFORNIA LATE THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY AND THROUGH ARIZONA ON
SATURDAY. BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF SOLUTIONS SHOWED SOME MID LEVEL
MOISTURE ADVECTING INTO SOUTHERN ARIZONA AHEAD OF THE MAIN SYSTEM ON
FRIDAY. THAT SAID...WILL KEEP MAINLY A CHANCE OF SHOWERS IN THE
MOUNTAINS FOR FRIDAY WITH INCREASING CHANCES ELSEWHERE FRIDAY NIGHT
AND SATURDAY AS THE SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH THE AREA. A DROP IN
AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES CAN ALSO BE EXPECTED FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.
THEREAFTER...A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE REGION FOR
MORE DRY CONDITIONS AND WARMER DAYTIME TEMPERATURES.

&&

.TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
    RED FLAG WARNING WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING
    FOR EASTERN PORTIONS OF AZZ152. (INCLUDING EASTERN COCHISE...
    SOUTHEASTERN GRAHAM AND SOUTHERN GREENLEE COUNTIES)
&&

$$

VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...YOUTUBE...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/TUCSON










000
FXUS65 KFGZ 152157
AFDFGZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ
250 PM MST TUE APR 15 2014

.SYNOPSIS...WARM AND DRY WEATHER IS FORECAST FROM TODAY THROUGH
THURSDAY...WITH BREEZY WINDS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. A WEAK LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BRING CLOUDS AND A CHANCE OF SHOWERS FROM
FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. DRY AND WARMER WEATHER WILL RETURN
FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...FAIR AND DRY WEATHER IS FORECAST THROUGH THURSDAY WITH
HIGH TEMPERATURES 5 TO 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL
ALSO BE MODERATING AS A WARMER AIR MASS MOVES IN. MODELS SHOW A WEAK
WEATHER DISTURBANCE BRUSHING THE ARIZONA/UTAH BORDER WEDNESDAY...
WITH THE MAIN IMPACT BEING A BREEZY AFTERNOON WITH WEST-NORTHWEST
WINDS IN THE 15-25 MPH RANGE...AND SOME INCREASED CLOUD COVER IN
NORTHEAST ARIZONA.

FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...WEAK LOW PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO MOVE EASTWARD
ACROSS THE STATE. 12Z MODEL RUNS FROM THIS MORNING INDICATED THE
POSSIBILITY OF THE SYSTEM PICKING UP A BIT MORE MOISTURE THAN
PREVIOUSLY EXPECTED...ESPECIALLY FOR EASTERN ARIZONA ON FRIDAY.
INCREASED POPS INTO THE 30-40 PCT RANGE FOR THIS PERIOD...AND ALSO
INTRODUCED A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDER FOR THE AFTERNOON PERIODS. THE
LOW IS FORECAST TO MOVE EAST OF THE STATE ON SUNDAY...WITH DRY
CONDITIONS AND WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES SUNDAY AND MONDAY. THE
NEXT TROUGH IS FORECAST TO APPROACH THE WEST COAST TUESDAY...BUT
MODELS SHOW LARGE DIFFERENCES IN THE STRENGTH/POSITION. WE COOLED
TEMPERATURES AND INCREASED WINDS IN TUESDAY`S FORECAST...WITH MORE
CHANGES TO THE FORECAST LIKELY AS MODELS GET A BETTER HANDLE ON THE
SITUATION.

&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 00Z PACKAGE...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR
THE NEXT 24 HOURS. WINDS SW5-15 KTS UNTIL 02Z...BECOMING LIGHT AND
VARIABLE OVERNIGHT. AFTER 18Z WED...WINDS W10-20G25KTS. AVIATION
DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDMENTS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...A WEAK WEATHER DISTURBANCE WILL BRING INCREASING
WINDS AND CLOUDINESS WEDNESDAY...ALONG WITH MINIMUM RELATIVE
HUMIDITIES OF 6 TO 12 PERCENT. WIND SPEEDS WILL APPROACH CRITICAL
FIRE WEATHER THRESHOLDS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AROUND THE WHITE
MOUNTAINS AND EASTERN LITTLE COLORADO RIVER VALLEY. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL MOVE ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST THURSDAY BRINGING LIGHTER WINDS BUT
CONTINUED DRY CONDITIONS.

FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...A PACIFIC LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE
ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST FRIDAY AND SATURDAY AND WILL BRING A CHANCE OF
SHOWERS ALONG WITH HIGHER AFTERNOON RELATIVE HUMIDITY. HIGH PRESSURE
SUNDAY WILL RESULT IN LIGHT WINDS...LOWER RELATIVE HUMIDITY...AND
DRY CONDITIONS.

.FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC.........JJ
AVIATION.......DJO
FIRE WEATHER...DJO

FOR NORTHERN ARIZONA WEATHER INFORMATION VISIT
WEATHER.GOV/FLAGSTAFF







000
FXUS65 KTWC 152133
AFDTWC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ
232 PM MST TUE APR 15 2014

.SYNOPSIS...DRY AND LOCALLY BREEZY CONDITIONS ALONG WITH ABOVE
AVERAGE TEMPERATURES CAN BE ANTICIPATED THROUGH THURSDAY. A PACIFIC
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL THEN BRING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS LATE FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY. DRY CONDITIONS WITH A
PRONOUNCED WARMING TREND WILL OCCUR EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...A WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD SOME
HIGH CLOUDS ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. MODELS TRACK A
SYSTEM WELL TO THE NORTH OF SOUTHERN ARIZONA...BUT GUSTY WINDS WILL
LIKELY ACCOMPANY THIS FEATURE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING.
THIS GUSTINESS IN COMBINATION WITH DRY CONDITIONS WILL MAKE FOR A
CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER ENVIRONMENT ACROSS EXTREME SOUTHEAST ARIZONA
WEDNESDAY. PLEASE REFER TO THE FIRE WEATHER SECTION IN THIS PRODUCT
OF MORE DETAILS.

MODELS WERE IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH TRACKING A SYSTEM INTO
CALIFORNIA LATE THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY AND THROUGH ARIZONA ON
SATURDAY. BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF SOLUTIONS SHOWED SOME MID LEVEL
MOISTURE ADVECTING INTO SOUTHERN ARIZONA AHEAD OF THE MAIN SYSTEM ON
FRIDAY. THAT SAID...WILL KEEP MAINLY A CHANCE OF SHOWERS IN THE
MOUNTAINS FOR FRIDAY WITH INCREASING CHANCES ELSEWHERE FRIDAY NIGHT
AND SATURDAY AS THE SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH THE AREA. A DROP IN
AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES CAN ALSO BE EXPECTED FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.
THEREAFTER...A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE REGION FOR
MORE DRY CONDITIONS AND WARMER DAYTIME TEMPERATURES.

&&

.AVIATION...A WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL BRING SOME CIRRUS
CLOUDS TO SE AZ THRU WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. GUSTY ELY/SELY SURFACE
WINDS ARE DIMINISHING THIS AFTERNOON...AND WILL BECOME WLY/NWLY
GENERALLY LESS THAN 10 KTS LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING.
STRONGER AND GUSTY WEST WINDS WILL OCCUR WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AS A
DISTURBANCE MOVES ACROSS THE FOUR CORNERS REGION...INCREASING TO
10-20 KTS AFTER 16/19Z WITH HIGHER GUSTS IN EASTERN AREAS SUCH AS
NEAR KDUG. AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR TAF AMENDMENTS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...GUSTY EAST WINDS DIMINISHING THIS AFTERNOON...WINDS
OVERNIGHT GENERALLY LIGHT AND DIURNAL IN NATURE EXCEPT FOR GRADUALLY
INCREASING WEST WINDS AT HIGHER ELEVATIONS AFTER MIDNIGHT. A WEATHER
SYSTEM BRUSHING BY WELL NORTH OF THE AREA WILL BRING BREEZY TO
LOCALLY WINDY CONDITIONS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...MAINLY IN FAR EASTERN
AREAS. WITH THE VERY LOW MINIMUM RH VALUES CONTINUING (WELL BELOW 10
PERCENT IN MOST LOCATIONS) THE FIRE WEATHER WATCH HAS BEEN UPGRADED
TO A RED FLAG WARNING FOR WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...THE AREA
HAS BEEN REDUCED TO JUST EASTERN PORTIONS OF ZONE 152 BORDERING NEW
MEXICO (INCLUDING EASTERN COCHISE...SOUTHEAST GRAHAM AND SOUTHERN
GREENLEE COUNTIES). ELSEWHERE...SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEXT EXPECTED TO
BE QUITE AS STRONG OR PERSISTENT.

ON FRIDAY AND SATURDAY A SYSTEM MOVING IN FROM THE PACIFIC WILL
BRING A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS LATE FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY. LOWER
LEVELS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN ON THE DRIER SIDE...SO A BIG CONCERN
WOULD BE GUSTY AND ERRATIC THUNDERSTORM OUTFLOWS WITH LITTLE IN THE
WAY OF SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL.

&&

.TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
    RED FLAG WARNING WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING
    FOR EASTERN PORTIONS OF AZZ152. (INCLUDING EASTERN COCHISE...
    SOUTHEAST GRAHAM AND SOUTHERN GREENLEE COUNTIES)
&&

$$

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000
FXUS65 KPSR 152120
AFDPSR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PHOENIX AZ
220 PM MST TUE APR 15 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
DRY WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL PERSIST THROUGH MUCH OF THE WORK WEEK
WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES WARMING INTO THE 90S OVER THE WARMER DESERTS.
A WEAK UPPER LEVEL LOW APPROACHING FROM THE EAST PACIFIC WILL SPREAD
INCREASING MOISTURE AND CLOUDS INTO THE AREA FRIDAY INTO THE
EARLY WEEKEND...LEADING TO A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS ACROSS SOUTH
CENTRAL ARIZONA AND THE POSSIBILITY FOR SLIGHTLY COOLER DAYTIME
TEMPERATURES. THE COOL DOWN WILL BE SHORT LIVED...AS HIGH PRESSURE
QUICKLY RETURNS FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
LATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THE BROKEN MID CLOUDS AND ISOLATED
VIRGA FORCED BY WEAK VORTICITY ADVECTION SLIDING STEADILY EASTWARD
INTO THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF NORTHERN AND EASTERN AZ. IN ITS
WAKE...CLEAR SKIES EXPECTED OVERNIGHT WITH TEMPERATURES A FEW
DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.

DRY NORTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL REDEVELOP WEDNESDAY AS A RIDGE BUILDS
ALONG THE WEST COAST AND A TROUGH MOVES INTO THE FOUR CORNERS. A
DISCERNIBLE WEAKENING TREND IS NOTED IN BOTH THE GFS/NAM WITH
REGARD TO THE AMPLITUDE OF THIS TROUGH. CONSEQUENTLY...HIGH
TEMPERATURES HAVE BEEN NUDGED UPWARDS WEDNESDAY INTO THE LOWER 90S
ACROSS THE LOWER DESERTS UNDER MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES. ALTHOUGH SOME
AFTERNOON BREEZINESS IS ALSO ANTICIPATED ACROSS SOUTH-CENTRAL
AZ...THE MAGNITUDE OF THE WIND HAS ALSO TRENDED DOWNWARD OVER THE
PAST DAY OR SO.

&&

.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
BY LATE THURSDAY...LONGWAVE TROUGHING OVER THE WEST WILL SYNC UP
WITH AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE...CURRENTLY CIRCULATING IN THE EASTERN
PACIFIC...INTRODUCING SOUTH/SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT INTO THE
SOUTHWEST STATES. THIS LOW AND LIMITED AMOUNT PACIFIC MOISTURE WILL
MOVE THROUGH THE AREA FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY. MODEL SOUNDINGS PLOT THE
MAJORITY OF THE MOISTURE AT AND ABOVE THE 600MB LEVEL WITH VERY DRY
SUB-CLOUD LAYERS AND INVERTED V TRACES BELOW...PARTICULARLY OVER
SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA. STILL DO NOT BELIEVE THIS SYSTEM TO BE MOIST
ENOUGH TO WARRANT ANYTHING MORE THAN LOW-END SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR
OVERNIGHT FRIDAY AND EARLY SATURDAY ACROSS CENTRAL ARIZONA WITH ONLY
SLIGHTLY HIGHER AMOUNTS OVER THE MORE FAVORABLY ORIENTED HIGHER
TERRAIN. SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL IS NOT EXPECTED...BUT LIGHT SPRINKLES
AND VIRGA ARE MORE LIKELY FROM MARICOPA COUNTY EASTWARD. AS WE`VE
ALREADY SEEN BEFORE THIS SPRING...HIGH BASED SHOWERS AND DRY
SUB-CLOUD LAYERS COULD ENHANCE WIND GUSTS IN THE AFTERNOON HOURS.
WITH THE LOWER HEIGHTS...STILL IN THE 568-570DM RANGE AT 500MB AND
850MB TEMPS FALLING IN THE 16C TO 17C RANGE...TEMPERATURES SHOULD
SEE A SLIGHT COOL DOWN AND DROP BACK TOWARDS MORE SEASONABLE
READINGS IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.

BEYOND SATURDAY...CONFIDENCE IN THE MODEL FORECASTS BEGINS TO WANE.
500MB HEIGHTS RAPIDLY RISE INTO THE 580DM RANGE...BRINGING THE 90S
BACK FOR HIGH TEMPERATURES SUNDAY. HOWEVER...BEYOND THAT
POINT...MODEL SOLUTIONS BEGIN TO GREATLY DIVERGE BETWEEN STRONG
RIDGING DIRECTLY OVERHEAD (ECMWF) VERSUS RIDGING ANCHORED TO OUR EAST
(GFS). THIS LEADS TO A WIDE RANGE FOR POTENTIAL HIGH TEMPERATURES
EARLY NEXT WEEK...WITH THE ECMWF INTRODUCING WIDESPREAD TRIPLE-DIGIT
READINGS WHILE THE COOLER GFS LEAVES US IN THE 90S. FOR NOW WENT WITH
A PERSISTENCE HIGH TEMPERATURE FORECAST...LOW TO MID 90S FOR EARLY
NEXT WEEK WITH DRY CONDITIONS AND MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES.

&&

.AVIATION...
SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA INCLUDING KPHX...KIWA...AND KSDL...AND
SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA AND SOUTHWEST ARIZONA INCLUDING KIPL AND KBLH...

STRONG HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SFC AND ALOFT TO KEEP DRY CONDITIONS IN
PLACE AT ALL OF THE TERMINALS THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. A WEAK WEATHER
DISTURBANCE PASSING WELL TO THE NORTH...THAT IS BRINGING SCT-BKN
CIRRUS LAYERS TO THE REGION TODAY WILL BE MOVING OFF TO THE EAST
LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY WEDNESDAY...ALLOWING SKIES TO BECOME MOSTLY
CLEAR TONIGHT AND ON WED. WINDS TO REMAIN ON THE LIGHT SIDE...MAINLY
8 KNOTS OR LESS THROUGH MIDDAY ON WEDNESDAY...AND FOLLOW THE USUAL
DIURNAL TRENDS INN DIRECTION AND SPEED. SLIGHTLY STRONGER WESTERLY
WINDS ARE THEN EXPECTED ON WED AFTERNOON AS THE NEXT UPPER-LEVEL
SYSTEM DROPS SOUTHEASTWARD INTO THE GREAT BASIN.

AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDED TAFS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...
A WEAK WEATHER DISTURBANCE WILL BRING A MODEST INCREASE IN
MOISTURE...CLOUDINESS...AND AFTERNOON BREEZINESS TO THE DISTRICT
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WITH THIS IMPULSE...PARTICULARLY ACROSS THE HIGHER
TERRAIN NORTH AND EAST OF PHOENIX. EVEN WITH SOMEWHAT MORE MOIST
CONDITIONS...AFTERNOON HUMIDITY LEVELS WILL STILL FALL INTO THE
TEENS...AND ANY THUNDERSTORM GENERATED GUSTY WINDS MAY POSE AN
ENHANCED FIRE WEATHER RISK GIVEN THE ANTECEDENT DRY FUEL CONDITIONS.
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING OVER THE DESERT SOUTHWEST FROM THE WEST WILL
THEN BRING DRY CONDITIONS BACK OVER THE REGION...ALONG WITH WARMER
TEMPERATURES FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY. THE FORECAST FOR NEXT TUESDAY IS
MUCH MORE UNCERTAIN...WITH SOME COMPUTER MODELS KEEPING HIGH
PRESSURE IN PLACE...WITH DRY CONDITIONS AND ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES CONTINUING...WHILE OTHERS ARE BRINGING A VIGOROUS LOW
PRESSURE CENTER INLAND OVER THE REGION...WHICH WOULD BRING MUCH
COOLER TEMPERATURES...GUSTY WINDS...AND A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS TO THE
DISTRICT.

&&

.PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

AZ...NONE.

CA...NONE.

&&

$$

VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/PHOENIX

DISCUSSION...HIRSCH
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...NOLTE
AVIATION...PERCHA
FIRE WEATHER...PERCHA






000
FXUS65 KPSR 152120
AFDPSR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PHOENIX AZ
220 PM MST TUE APR 15 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
DRY WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL PERSIST THROUGH MUCH OF THE WORK WEEK
WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES WARMING INTO THE 90S OVER THE WARMER DESERTS.
A WEAK UPPER LEVEL LOW APPROACHING FROM THE EAST PACIFIC WILL SPREAD
INCREASING MOISTURE AND CLOUDS INTO THE AREA FRIDAY INTO THE
EARLY WEEKEND...LEADING TO A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS ACROSS SOUTH
CENTRAL ARIZONA AND THE POSSIBILITY FOR SLIGHTLY COOLER DAYTIME
TEMPERATURES. THE COOL DOWN WILL BE SHORT LIVED...AS HIGH PRESSURE
QUICKLY RETURNS FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
LATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THE BROKEN MID CLOUDS AND ISOLATED
VIRGA FORCED BY WEAK VORTICITY ADVECTION SLIDING STEADILY EASTWARD
INTO THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF NORTHERN AND EASTERN AZ. IN ITS
WAKE...CLEAR SKIES EXPECTED OVERNIGHT WITH TEMPERATURES A FEW
DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.

DRY NORTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL REDEVELOP WEDNESDAY AS A RIDGE BUILDS
ALONG THE WEST COAST AND A TROUGH MOVES INTO THE FOUR CORNERS. A
DISCERNIBLE WEAKENING TREND IS NOTED IN BOTH THE GFS/NAM WITH
REGARD TO THE AMPLITUDE OF THIS TROUGH. CONSEQUENTLY...HIGH
TEMPERATURES HAVE BEEN NUDGED UPWARDS WEDNESDAY INTO THE LOWER 90S
ACROSS THE LOWER DESERTS UNDER MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES. ALTHOUGH SOME
AFTERNOON BREEZINESS IS ALSO ANTICIPATED ACROSS SOUTH-CENTRAL
AZ...THE MAGNITUDE OF THE WIND HAS ALSO TRENDED DOWNWARD OVER THE
PAST DAY OR SO.

&&

.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
BY LATE THURSDAY...LONGWAVE TROUGHING OVER THE WEST WILL SYNC UP
WITH AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE...CURRENTLY CIRCULATING IN THE EASTERN
PACIFIC...INTRODUCING SOUTH/SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT INTO THE
SOUTHWEST STATES. THIS LOW AND LIMITED AMOUNT PACIFIC MOISTURE WILL
MOVE THROUGH THE AREA FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY. MODEL SOUNDINGS PLOT THE
MAJORITY OF THE MOISTURE AT AND ABOVE THE 600MB LEVEL WITH VERY DRY
SUB-CLOUD LAYERS AND INVERTED V TRACES BELOW...PARTICULARLY OVER
SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA. STILL DO NOT BELIEVE THIS SYSTEM TO BE MOIST
ENOUGH TO WARRANT ANYTHING MORE THAN LOW-END SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR
OVERNIGHT FRIDAY AND EARLY SATURDAY ACROSS CENTRAL ARIZONA WITH ONLY
SLIGHTLY HIGHER AMOUNTS OVER THE MORE FAVORABLY ORIENTED HIGHER
TERRAIN. SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL IS NOT EXPECTED...BUT LIGHT SPRINKLES
AND VIRGA ARE MORE LIKELY FROM MARICOPA COUNTY EASTWARD. AS WE`VE
ALREADY SEEN BEFORE THIS SPRING...HIGH BASED SHOWERS AND DRY
SUB-CLOUD LAYERS COULD ENHANCE WIND GUSTS IN THE AFTERNOON HOURS.
WITH THE LOWER HEIGHTS...STILL IN THE 568-570DM RANGE AT 500MB AND
850MB TEMPS FALLING IN THE 16C TO 17C RANGE...TEMPERATURES SHOULD
SEE A SLIGHT COOL DOWN AND DROP BACK TOWARDS MORE SEASONABLE
READINGS IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.

BEYOND SATURDAY...CONFIDENCE IN THE MODEL FORECASTS BEGINS TO WANE.
500MB HEIGHTS RAPIDLY RISE INTO THE 580DM RANGE...BRINGING THE 90S
BACK FOR HIGH TEMPERATURES SUNDAY. HOWEVER...BEYOND THAT
POINT...MODEL SOLUTIONS BEGIN TO GREATLY DIVERGE BETWEEN STRONG
RIDGING DIRECTLY OVERHEAD (ECMWF) VERSUS RIDGING ANCHORED TO OUR EAST
(GFS). THIS LEADS TO A WIDE RANGE FOR POTENTIAL HIGH TEMPERATURES
EARLY NEXT WEEK...WITH THE ECMWF INTRODUCING WIDESPREAD TRIPLE-DIGIT
READINGS WHILE THE COOLER GFS LEAVES US IN THE 90S. FOR NOW WENT WITH
A PERSISTENCE HIGH TEMPERATURE FORECAST...LOW TO MID 90S FOR EARLY
NEXT WEEK WITH DRY CONDITIONS AND MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES.

&&

.AVIATION...
SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA INCLUDING KPHX...KIWA...AND KSDL...AND
SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA AND SOUTHWEST ARIZONA INCLUDING KIPL AND KBLH...

STRONG HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SFC AND ALOFT TO KEEP DRY CONDITIONS IN
PLACE AT ALL OF THE TERMINALS THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. A WEAK WEATHER
DISTURBANCE PASSING WELL TO THE NORTH...THAT IS BRINGING SCT-BKN
CIRRUS LAYERS TO THE REGION TODAY WILL BE MOVING OFF TO THE EAST
LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY WEDNESDAY...ALLOWING SKIES TO BECOME MOSTLY
CLEAR TONIGHT AND ON WED. WINDS TO REMAIN ON THE LIGHT SIDE...MAINLY
8 KNOTS OR LESS THROUGH MIDDAY ON WEDNESDAY...AND FOLLOW THE USUAL
DIURNAL TRENDS INN DIRECTION AND SPEED. SLIGHTLY STRONGER WESTERLY
WINDS ARE THEN EXPECTED ON WED AFTERNOON AS THE NEXT UPPER-LEVEL
SYSTEM DROPS SOUTHEASTWARD INTO THE GREAT BASIN.

AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDED TAFS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...
A WEAK WEATHER DISTURBANCE WILL BRING A MODEST INCREASE IN
MOISTURE...CLOUDINESS...AND AFTERNOON BREEZINESS TO THE DISTRICT
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WITH THIS IMPULSE...PARTICULARLY ACROSS THE HIGHER
TERRAIN NORTH AND EAST OF PHOENIX. EVEN WITH SOMEWHAT MORE MOIST
CONDITIONS...AFTERNOON HUMIDITY LEVELS WILL STILL FALL INTO THE
TEENS...AND ANY THUNDERSTORM GENERATED GUSTY WINDS MAY POSE AN
ENHANCED FIRE WEATHER RISK GIVEN THE ANTECEDENT DRY FUEL CONDITIONS.
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING OVER THE DESERT SOUTHWEST FROM THE WEST WILL
THEN BRING DRY CONDITIONS BACK OVER THE REGION...ALONG WITH WARMER
TEMPERATURES FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY. THE FORECAST FOR NEXT TUESDAY IS
MUCH MORE UNCERTAIN...WITH SOME COMPUTER MODELS KEEPING HIGH
PRESSURE IN PLACE...WITH DRY CONDITIONS AND ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES CONTINUING...WHILE OTHERS ARE BRINGING A VIGOROUS LOW
PRESSURE CENTER INLAND OVER THE REGION...WHICH WOULD BRING MUCH
COOLER TEMPERATURES...GUSTY WINDS...AND A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS TO THE
DISTRICT.

&&

.PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

AZ...NONE.

CA...NONE.

&&

$$

VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/PHOENIX

DISCUSSION...HIRSCH
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...NOLTE
AVIATION...PERCHA
FIRE WEATHER...PERCHA





000
FXUS65 KPSR 151635
AFDPSR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PHOENIX AZ
935 AM MST TUE APR 15 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
DRY WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL PERSIST THROUGH MUCH OF THE WORK WEEK
WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES WARMING INTO THE 90S OVER THE WARMER DESERTS.
A WEAK UPPER LEVEL LOW APPROACHING FROM THE EAST PACIFIC WILL SPREAD
INCREASING MOISTURE AND CLOUDS INTO THE AREA FRIDAY INTO THE
EARLY WEEKEND...LEADING TO A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS ACROSS SOUTH
CENTRAL ARIZONA AND THE POSSIBILITY FOR SLIGHTLY COOLER DAYTIME
TEMPERATURES. THE COOL DOWN WILL BE SHORT LIVED...AS HIGH PRESSURE
QUICKLY RETURNS FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
WESTERLY FLOW WILL PREDOMINATE ACROSS THE DESERT SOUTHWEST TODAY. IN
TERMS OF SENSIBLE WEATHER...A WARMING TREND IS EXPECTED WITH
TEMPERATURES GENERALLY AROUND 5 DEGREES WARMER THAN THOSE OBSERVED
MONDAY. THE LOW-LEVEL WARMING IS ALREADY EVIDENT IN THE 12Z KTWC
SOUNDING...WHERE 700 MB TEMPERATURES ARE 5C WARMER THAN 24 HOURS
AGO. MEANWHILE...MID AND HIGH CLOUDS CONTINUE TO STREAM EASTWARD
MAINLY NORTH OF I-10...AHEAD OF A WEAK TROUGH OFF THE CA COAST.
SATELLITE IMAGERY SUGGESTS THE PRESENCE OF ACCAS AND THERE IS THE
POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED VIRGA...WHICH MAY RESULT IN SOME LOCALIZED
INHIBITION TO AFTERNOON HEATING...PARTICULARLY NORTH OF PHOENIX.
FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK AND ONLY SOME MINOR ADJUSTMENTS WERE MADE
TO THE SHORT-TERM TEMPERATURES.

&&

.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
FLOW ALOFT REMAINS FROM THE NORTHWEST WITH 1000-500MB THICKNESSES
GRADUALLY INCREASING EACH DAY THROUGH THURSDAY AFTERNOON. DAYTIME
TEMPERATURES WILL SEE A SUBTLE WARMING TREND WITH WIDESPREAD 90S IN
THE FORECAST FOR THE MAJORITY OF THE LOWER DESERT ELEVATIONS. ANOTHER
AREA OF COMPACT VORT ENERGY WILL MOVE THROUGH THE SUBTLE
TROUGHING/NORTHWEST FLOW ACROSS WESTERN CONUS ON WEDNESDAY. BULK OF
THE ENERGY AND COOLER AIR REMAINS WELL TO OUR NORTH WITH THE ONLY
SENSIBLE IMPACT ON OUR FORECAST AREA BEING ENHANCED AFTERNOON
WESTERLY BREEZES.

BY LATE THURSDAY...LONGWAVE TROUGHING OVER THE WEST WILL SYNC UP
WITH AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE...CURRENTLY CIRCULATING IN THE EASTERN
PACIFIC...INTRODUCING SOUTH/SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT INTO THE
SOUTHWEST STATES. THIS LOW AND LIMITED AMOUNT PACIFIC MOISTURE WILL
MOVE THROUGH THE AREA FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY. MODEL SOUNDINGS PLOT THE
MAJORITY OF THE MOISTURE AT AND ABOVE THE 600MB LEVEL WITH VERY DRY
SUB-CLOUD LAYERS AND INVERTED V TRACES BELOW...PARTICULARLY OVER
SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA. STILL DO NOT BELIEVE THIS SYSTEM TO BE MOIST
ENOUGH TO WARRANT ANYTHING MORE THAN LOW-END SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR
OVERNIGHT FRIDAY AND EARLY SATURDAY ACROSS CENTRAL ARIZONA WITH ONLY
SLIGHTLY HIGHER AMOUNTS OVER THE MORE FAVORABLY ORIENTED HIGHER
TERRAIN. SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL IS NOT EXPECTED...BUT LIGHT SPRINKLES
AND VIRGA ARE MORE LIKELY FROM MARICOPA COUNTY EASTWARD. AS WE`VE
ALREADY SEEN BEFORE THIS SPRING...HIGH BASED SHOWERS AND DRY SUB-
CLOUD LAYERS COULD ENHANCE WIND GUSTS IN THE AFTERNOON HOURS. WITH
THE LOWER HEIGHTS...STILL IN THE 568-570DM RANGE AT 500MB AND 850MB
TEMPS FALLING IN THE 16C TO 17C RANGE...TEMPERATURES SHOULD SEE A
SLIGHT COOL DOWN AND DROP BACK TOWARDS MORE SEASONABLE READINGS IN
THE MID TO UPPER 80S FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.

BEYOND SATURDAY...CONFIDENCE IN THE MODEL FORECASTS BEGINS TO WANE.
500MB HEIGHTS RAPIDLY RISE INTO THE 580DM RANGE...BRINGING THE 90S
BACK FOR HIGH TEMPERATURES SUNDAY. HOWEVER...BEYOND THAT
POINT...MODEL SOLUTIONS BEGIN TO GREATLY DIVERGE BETWEEN STRONG
RIDGING DIRECTLY OVERHEAD (ECMWF) VERSUS RIDGING ANCHORED TO OUR EAST
(GFS). THIS LEADS TO A WIDE RANGE FOR POTENTIAL HIGH TEMPERATURES
EARLY NEXT WEEK...WITH THE ECMWF INTRODUCING WIDESPREAD TRIPLE-DIGIT
READINGS WHILE THE COOLER GFS LEAVES US IN THE 90S. FOR NOW WENT WITH
A PERSISTENCE HIGH TEMPERATURE FORECAST...LOW TO MID 90S FOR EARLY
NEXT WEEK WITH DRY CONDITIONS AND MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES.

&&

.AVIATION...
SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA INCLUDING KPHX...KIWA...AND KSDL...AND
SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA AND SOUTHWEST ARIZONA INCLUDING KIPL AND KBLH...

ASIDE FROM SOME INCREASING HIGH CLOUDS THROUGH MID
AFTERNOON...AVIATION CONCERNS ARE NIL TODAY AS HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS
IN PLACE ACROSS THE AREA. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND WILL FAVOR TYPICAL
DIURNAL DIRECTIONS AT ALL SITES.

AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDED TAFS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY...
A WEAK WEATHER DISTURBANCE WILL BRING A MODEST INCREASE IN
MOISTURE...CLOUDINESS...AND AFTERNOON BREEZINESS TO THE DISTRICT
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. THERE WILL ALSO BE A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS WITH THIS IMPULSE...PARTICULARLY ACROSS THE HIGHER
TERRAIN NORTH AND EAST OF PHOENIX. EVEN WITH SOMEWHAT MORE MOIST
CONDITIONS...AFTERNOON HUMIDITY LEVELS WILL STILL FALL INTO THE
TEENS...AND ANY THUNDERSTORM GENERATED GUSTY WINDS MAY POSE AN
ENHANCED FIRE WEATHER RISK GIVEN THE ANTECEDENT DRY FUEL CONDITIONS.
OTHERWISE...THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK WILL RESUME A WARMER WEATHER
REGIME AWAITING THE POTENTIAL FOR THE NEXT LARGER PACIFIC STORM
SYSTEM. BIG MODEL DIFFERENCES REMAIN REGARDING WHAT WILL HAPPEN WITH
AFOREMENTIONED PACIFIC STORM. MOISTURE COULD ARRIVE AS EARLY AS
MONDAY NIGHT...AS LATE AS NEXT WEDNESDAY. TOOK A MIDDLE OF THE ROAD
APPROACH AND SHOWED INCREASING HUMIDITIES LATE IN THE FORECAST BUT
NOT AS AGGRESSIVELY AS SOME MODELS WOULD SUGGEST.

&&

.PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

AZ...NONE.

CA...NONE.

&&

$$

VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/PHOENIX

DISCUSSION...HIRSCH
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...NOLTE
AVIATION...LEINS
FIRE WEATHER...MO/LEINS






000
FXUS65 KFGZ 151605
AFDFGZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ
905 AM MST TUE APR 15 2014

.SYNOPSIS...WARM AND DRY WEATHER IS FORECAST FROM TODAY THROUGH
THURSDAY...WITH BREEZY WINDS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. A WEAK LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BRING CLOUDS AND A CHANCE OF SHOWERS FROM
FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT.
&&

.DISCUSSION...COLD TEMPERATURES WERE OBSERVED OVERNIGHT...WITH LOWS
RUNNING CLOSE TO 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. TEMPERATURES WILL RISE
VERY QUICKLY THIS MORNING DUE TO THE SHALLOW NATURE OF THE SURFACE
INVERSION...WITH AFTERNOON TEMPS ACTUALLY RISING ABOVE NORMAL.
FORECASTS ARE IN GOOD SHAPE WITH NO MORNING UPDATES NEEDED.

.PREV DISCUSSION...(240 AM MST)...
FOR TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY...FAIR AND DRY WEATHER IS FORECAST WITH
MAX TEMPERATURES 5 TO 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. THIN CIRRUS CLOUDS
WILL CROSS THE STATE TODAY.

MODELS SHOW A WEAK WEATHER DISTURBANCE BRUSHING THE ARIZONA/UTAH
BORDER WEDNESDAY...WITH THE MAIN IMPACT BEING A BREEZY AFTERNOON
WITH WEST-NORTHWEST WINDS IN THE 15-25 MPH RANGE.

FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW ANOTHER WEAK LOW
MEANDERING ACROSS ARIZONA. ONLY EXPECTING A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS
FROM THIS SYSTEM AND WILL CONTINUE THE SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS. THE
LOW IS FORECAST TO MOVE EAST OF THE STATE ON SUNDAY...WITH DRY
CONDITIONS AND WELL ABOVE NORMAL MAX TEMPERATURES SUNDAY AND MONDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 18Z PACKAGE...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR
THE NEXT 24 HOURS. WINDS SW5-15 KTS UNTIL 02Z...BECOMING LIGHT AND
VARIABLE. AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDMENTS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...A WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE ACROSS
ARIZONA TODAY. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE EARLY...BECOMING
SOUTHWESTERLY BY THIS AFTERNOON. ON WEDNESDAY...A WEAK WEATHER
DISTURBANCE WILL BRING INCREASING WINDS. WIND SPEEDS MAY APPROACH
CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER THRESHOLDS BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AROUND THE
WHITE MOUNTAINS AND EASTERN LITTLE COLORADO RIVER VALLEY. MINIMUM
RELATIVE HUMIDITIES OF 6 TO 12 PERCENT CAN BE EXPECTED.

THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...A RIDGE WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE
SOUTHWEST ON THURSDAY BRINGING LIGHTER WINDS TO THE AREA. A WEAK
PACIFIC LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST ON FRIDAY
AND SATURDAY AND WILL BRING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS ALONG WITH HIGHER
AFTERNOON RELATIVE HUMIDITY.

&&

.FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC.........JJ/DL
AVIATION.......DJO
FIRE WEATHER...DB

FOR NORTHERN ARIZONA WEATHER INFORMATION VISIT
WEATHER.GOV/FLAGSTAFF





000
FXUS65 KTWC 151530
AFDTWC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ
829 AM MST TUE APR 15 2014

.SYNOPSIS...DRY CONDITIONS WITH ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES WILL
OCCUR THROUGH THURSDAY. A PACIFIC LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL THEN
BRING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LATE FRIDAY INTO
SATURDAY. DRY CONDITIONS WITH A PRONOUNCED WARMING TREND WILL OCCUR
EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...SATELLITE WAS SHOWING SOME HIGH CLOUDS SPREADING INTO
THE AREA THIS MORNING BUT STILL LOOKING AT MOSTLY SUNNY CONDITIONS
TODAY. SOME GUSTY EASTERLY WINDS WERE ALSO BEING REPORTED AT MANY
LOCATIONS DUE TO A TIGHT SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT. MODELS SHOWED
THIS GRADIENT RELAXING THIS AFTERNOON FOR LESS WIND.
OTHERWISE...CURRENT FORECAST LOOKED ON TRACK SO NO UPDATES
ANTICIPATED THIS MORNING. PLEASE REFER TO THE ADDITIONAL SECTIONS IN
THIS PRODUCT FOR MORE INFO.

&&

.AVIATION...A GENERALLY NWLY FLOW ALOFT REGIME WILL BRING SOME
CIRRUS CLOUDS TO SE AZ THRU WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. GUSTY ELY/SELY
SURFACE WINDS UP TO 15-20 KTS WILL OCCUR INTO EARLY THIS AFTERNOON...
THEN WINDS WILL DIMINISH AND BECOME WLY/NWLY GENERALLY LESS THAN 10
KTS LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING. STRONGER AND GUSTY WEST
WINDS WILL OCCUR WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AS A DISTURBANCE MOVES ACROSS
THE FOUR CORNERS REGION. AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR TAF
AMENDMENTS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...GUSTY EAST WINDS WILL OCCUR INTO EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON...THEN WINDS ARE FORECAST TO DIMINISH AND BECOME WEST TO
NORTHWEST LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING. A FIRE WEATHER WATCH
IS IN EFFECT FROM WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING FOR
EASTERN GRAHAM...SOUTHERN GREENLEE...SOUTHEASTERN SANTA CRUZ...AND
MUCH OF COCHISE COUNTIES. THE COMBINATION OF STRONG AND GUSTY WEST
WINDS AND VERY LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITIES WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR RAPID
FIRE GROWTH. OTHERWISE...EXPECT DRY CONDITIONS WITH ABOVE AVERAGE
DAYTIME TEMPERATURES THROUGH THURSDAY. THEREAFTER...THERE IS A
CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LATE FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY. AT
THIS TIME...APPEARS THAT MEASURABLE RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL BE QUITE
LOW. HOWEVER...GIVEN THE VERY DRY NEAR-SURFACE ENVIRONMENT...ANY
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...A FAIRLY TIGHT SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL
PROVIDE GUSTY ELY/SELY WINDS ACROSS PORTIONS OF SE AZ MAINLY FROM
MID-MORNING INTO EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL DIMINISH AND
BECOME WLY/NWLY LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND CONTINUE THIS EVENING...THEN
WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE IN DIRECTION LATE TONIGHT.
OTHERWISE... MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES WILL OCCUR TODAY WITH MOSTLY CLEAR
SKIES TONIGHT AS SOME THIN CIRRIFORM CLOUDS MOVE ACROSS THE AREA.

A VERY DRY NWLY FLOW ALOFT REGIME WILL CONTINUE WED AS RIDGE ALOFT
AMPLIFIES ADJACENT THE WEST COAST. A SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING SEWD
ACROSS THE FOUR CORNERS REGION WILL BRING STRONG AND GUSTY WLY WINDS
WED AFTERNOON AND EARLY WED EVENING. PATCHY BLOWING DUST SHOULD
OCCUR EAST OF TUCSON WED AFTERNOON AND EARLY WED EVENING. WINDS WILL
BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE IN DIRECTION LATE WED EVENING AND CONTINUE
WED NIGHT UNDER MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES.

15/00Z GFS/ECMWF WERE SIMILAR WITH DEVELOPING A TROUGH OF LOW
PRESSURE ALOFT NEAR THE SRN CALIFORNIA COAST THUR MORNING. PRECIP-
FREE CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THUR AND THUR NIGHT. GFS/ECMWF WERE IN
EXCELLENT AGREEMENT WITH ADVECTING FAIRLY SUBSTANTIAL MID AND
HIGH-LEVEL MOISTURE ACROSS THE AREA THUR NIGHT-FRI. THUS...PARTLY
CLOUDY SKIES THUR NIGHT FOLLOWED BY MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES FRI. HAVE
NOTED THAT THESE GFS/ECMWF SOLUTIONS HAVE DECREASED QPF/S ACROSS THE
AREA FRI-SAT VERSUS PREVIOUS SOLUTIONS. HOWEVER...FOR THIS FORECAST
PACKAGE...HAVE MADE ONLY VERY MINOR MODIFICATIONS TO THE GRIDDED
DATA POP FIELDS.

THUS...HAVE MAINTAINED A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
FRI MAINLY NEAR THE MOUNTAINS. CHANCE-CATEGORY POPS HAVE ALSO BEEN
MAINTAINED MOSTLY NEAR THE HIGHER TERRAIN EAST OF TUCSON FRI NIGHT-
SAT...WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ELSEWHERE.
ANY MEASURABLE PRECIP AMOUNTS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM SHOULD BE
FAIRLY LOW. THE MAIN CONCERN WILL BE THE POTENTIAL FOR MOSTLY DRY
MICROBURSTS ESPECIALLY FRI AFTERNOON AND AGAIN SAT. ASIDE FROM A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS ACROSS THE WHITE MTNS SAT NIGHT...DRY
CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL SAT NIGHT-MON AS HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT BUILDS
OVER THE AREA.

HIGH TEMPS THIS AFTERNOON WILL BE ABOUT 5 DEGS F OR SO WARMER VERSUS
MON...THEN EXPECT NO SIGNIFICANT DAILY TEMP CHANGES WED-THUR. COOLER
DAYTIME TEMPS WILL PREVAIL FRI...THEN A PRONOUNCED WARMING TREND
WILL OCCUR EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
    FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY
    EVENING FOR AZZ151-152.

&&

$$

VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...YOUTUBE...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/TUCSON








000
FXUS65 KPSR 151118 AAA
AFDPSR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PHOENIX AZ
418 AM MST TUE APR 15 2014

.UPDATE...UPDATED AVIATION AND FIRE WEATHER DISCUSSIONS...

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
DRY WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL PERSIST THROUGH MUCH OF THE WORK WEEK
WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES WARMING INTO THE 90S OVER THE WARMER DESERTS.
A WEAK UPPER LEVEL LOW APPROACHING FROM THE EAST PACIFIC WILL SPREAD
INCREASING MOISTURE AND CLOUDS INTO THE AREA FRIDAY INTO THE
EARLY WEEKEND...LEADING TO A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS ACROSS SOUTH
CENTRAL ARIZONA AND THE POSSIBILITY FOR SLIGHTLY COOLER DAYTIME
TEMPERATURES. THE COOL DOWN WILL BE SHORT LIVED...AS HIGH PRESSURE
QUICKLY RETURNS FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
SKIES FOR THE FIRST PART OF THE OVERNIGHT HOURS STAYED CLEAR...MAKING
FOR GREAT VIEWING CONDITIONS FOR THE LUNAR ECLIPSE/BLOOD MOON. SOME
THIN HIGH CLOUDS HAVE JUST STARTED DRIFTING OVER JTNP AND SOUTHEAST
CALIFORNIA OVER THE LAST TWO HOURS ASSOCIATED WITH WEAK TROUGHING
STRETCHING FROM CALIFORNIA THROUGH THE NORTHERN ROCKIES. THE THICKER
CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN MOSTLY ACROSS NORTHERN
ARIZONA...LEAVING PERIODS OF MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES FOR THE SOUTH-CENTRAL
AZ AND SOUTHEAST CA DESERTS TODAY.

FLOW ALOFT REMAINS FROM THE NORTHWEST WITH 1000-500MB THICKNESSES
GRADUALLY INCREASING EACH DAY THROUGH THURSDAY AFTERNOON. DAYTIME
TEMPERATURES WILL SEE A SUBTLE WARMING TREND WITH WIDESPREAD 90S IN
THE FORECAST FOR THE MAJORITY OF THE LOWER DESERT ELEVATIONS. ANOTHER
AREA OF COMPACT VORT ENERGY WILL MOVE THROUGH THE SUBTLE
TROUGHING/NORTHWEST FLOW ACROSS WESTERN CONUS ON WEDNESDAY. BULK OF
THE ENERGY AND COOLER AIR REMAINS WELL TO OUR NORTH WITH THE ONLY
SENSIBLE IMPACT ON OUR FORECAST AREA BEING ENHANCED AFTERNOON
WESTERLY BREEZES.

BY LATE THURSDAY...LONGWAVE TROUGHING OVER THE WEST WILL SYNC UP
WITH AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE...CURRENTLY CIRCULATING IN THE EASTERN
PACIFIC...INTRODUCING SOUTH/SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT INTO THE
SOUTHWEST STATES. THIS LOW AND LIMITED AMOUNT PACIFIC MOISTURE WILL
MOVE THROUGH THE AREA FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY. MODEL SOUNDINGS PLOT THE
MAJORITY OF THE MOISTURE AT AND ABOVE THE 600MB LEVEL WITH VERY DRY
SUB-CLOUD LAYERS AND INVERTED V TRACES BELOW...PARTICULARLY OVER
SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA. STILL DO NOT BELIEVE THIS SYSTEM TO BE MOIST
ENOUGH TO WARRANT ANYTHING MORE THAN LOW-END SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR
OVERNIGHT FRIDAY AND EARLY SATURDAY ACROSS CENTRAL ARIZONA WITH ONLY
SLIGHTLY HIGHER AMOUNTS OVER THE MORE FAVORABLY ORIENTED HIGHER
TERRAIN. SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL IS NOT EXPECTED...BUT LIGHT SPRINKLES
AND VIRGA ARE MORE LIKELY FROM MARICOPA COUNTY EASTWARD. AS WE`VE
ALREADY SEEN BEFORE THIS SPRING...HIGH BASED SHOWERS AND DRY SUB-
CLOUD LAYERS COULD ENHANCE WIND GUSTS IN THE AFTERNOON HOURS. WITH
THE LOWER HEIGHTS...STILL IN THE 568-570DM RANGE AT 500MB AND 850MB
TEMPS FALLING IN THE 16C TO 17C RANGE...TEMPERATURES SHOULD SEE A
SLIGHT COOL DOWN AND DROP BACK TOWARDS MORE SEASONABLE READINGS IN
THE MID TO UPPER 80S FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.

BEYOND SATURDAY...CONFIDENCE IN THE MODEL FORECASTS BEGINS TO WANE.
500MB HEIGHTS RAPIDLY RISE INTO THE 580DM RANGE...BRINGING THE 90S
BACK FOR HIGH TEMPERATURES SUNDAY. HOWEVER...BEYOND THAT
POINT...MODEL SOLUTIONS BEGIN TO GREATLY DIVERGE BETWEEN STRONG
RIDGING DIRECTLY OVERHEAD (ECMWF) VERSUS RIDGING ANCHORED TO OUR EAST
(GFS). THIS LEADS TO A WIDE RANGE FOR POTENTIAL HIGH TEMPERATURES
EARLY NEXT WEEK...WITH THE ECMWF INTRODUCING WIDESPREAD TRIPLE-DIGIT
READINGS WHILE THE COOLER GFS LEAVES US IN THE 90S. FOR NOW WENT WITH
A PERSISTENCE HIGH TEMPERATURE FORECAST...LOW TO MID 90S FOR EARLY
NEXT WEEK WITH DRY CONDITIONS AND MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES.

&&

.AVIATION...
SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA INCLUDING KPHX...KIWA...AND KSDL...AND
SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA AND SOUTHWEST ARIZONA INCLUDING KIPL AND KBLH...

ASIDE FROM SOME INCREASING HIGH CLOUDS THROUGH MID
AFTERNOON...AVIATION CONCERNS ARE NIL TODAY AS HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS
IN PLACE ACROSS THE AREA. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND WILL FAVOR TYPICAL
DIURNAL DIRECTIONS AT ALL SITES.

AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDED TAFS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY...
A WEAK WEATHER DISTURBANCE WILL BRING A MODEST INCREASE IN
MOISTURE...CLOUDINESS...AND AFTERNOON BREEZINESS TO THE DISTRICT
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. THERE WILL ALSO BE A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS WITH THIS IMPULSE...PARTICULARLY ACROSS THE HIGHER
TERRAIN NORTH AND EAST OF PHOENIX. EVEN WITH SOMEWHAT MORE MOIST
CONDITIONS...AFTERNOON HUMIDITY LEVELS WILL STILL FALL INTO THE
TEENS...AND ANY THUNDERSTORM GENERATED GUSTY WINDS MAY POSE AN
ENHANCED FIRE WEATHER RISK GIVEN THE ANTECEDENT DRY FUEL CONDITIONS.
OTHERWISE...THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK WILL RESUME A WARMER WEATHER
REGIME AWAITING THE POTENTIAL FOR THE NEXT LARGER PACIFIC STORM
SYSTEM. BIG MODEL DIFFERENCES REMAIN REGARDING WHAT WILL HAPPEN WITH
AFOREMENTIONED PACIFIC STORM. MOISTURE COULD ARRIVE AS EARLY AS
MONDAY NIGHT...AS LATE AS NEXT WEDNESDAY. TOOK A MIDDLE OF THE ROAD
APPROACH AND SHOWED INCREASING HUMIDITIES LATE IN THE FORECAST BUT
NOT AS AGGRESSIVELY AS SOME MODELS WOULD SUGGEST.

&&

.PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

AZ...NONE.

CA...NONE.

&&

$$

VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/PHOENIX

DISCUSSION...NOLTE
AVIATION...LEINS
FIRE WEATHER...MO/LEINS





000
FXUS65 KTWC 151056
AFDTWC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ
355 AM MST TUE APR 15 2014

.SYNOPSIS...EXPECT GUSTY EAST WINDS INTO EARLY THIS AFTERNOON...WITH
STRONG AND GUSTY WEST WINDS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. OTHERWISE...DRY
CONDITIONS WITH ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES WILL OCCUR THROUGH
THURSDAY. A PACIFIC LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL THEN BRING A CHANCE OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LATE FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY. DRY CONDITIONS
WITH A PRONOUNCED WARMING TREND WILL OCCUR EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...A FAIRLY TIGHT SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL PROVIDE
GUSTY ELY/SELY WINDS ACROSS PORTIONS OF SE AZ MAINLY FROM MID-
MORNING INTO EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL DIMINISH AND BECOME
WLY/NWLY LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND CONTINUE THIS EVENING...THEN WINDS
WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE IN DIRECTION LATE TONIGHT. OTHERWISE...
MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES WILL OCCUR TODAY WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES TONIGHT
AS SOME THIN CIRRIFORM CLOUDS MOVE ACROSS THE AREA.

A VERY DRY NWLY FLOW ALOFT REGIME WILL CONTINUE WED AS RIDGE ALOFT
AMPLIFIES ADJACENT THE WEST COAST. A SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING SEWD
ACROSS THE FOUR CORNERS REGION WILL BRING STRONG AND GUSTY WLY WINDS
WED AFTERNOON AND EARLY WED EVENING. PATCHY BLOWING DUST SHOULD
OCCUR EAST OF TUCSON WED AFTERNOON AND EARLY WED EVENING. WINDS WILL
BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE IN DIRECTION LATE WED EVENING AND CONTINUE
WED NIGHT UNDER MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES.

15/00Z GFS/ECMWF WERE SIMILAR WITH DEVELOPING A TROUGH OF LOW
PRESSURE ALOFT NEAR THE SRN CALIFORNIA COAST THUR MORNING. PRECIP-
FREE CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THUR AND THUR NIGHT. GFS/ECMWF WERE IN
EXCELLENT AGREEMENT WITH ADVECTING FAIRLY SUBSTANTIAL MID AND
HIGH-LEVEL MOISTURE ACROSS THE AREA THUR NIGHT-FRI. THUS...PARTLY
CLOUDY SKIES THUR NIGHT FOLLOWED BY MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES FRI. HAVE
NOTED THAT THESE GFS/ECMWF SOLUTIONS HAVE DECREASED QPF/S ACROSS THE
AREA FRI-SAT VERSUS PREVIOUS SOLUTIONS. HOWEVER...FOR THIS FORECAST
PACKAGE...HAVE MADE ONLY VERY MINOR MODIFICATIONS TO THE GRIDDED
DATA POP FIELDS.

THUS...HAVE MAINTAINED A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
FRI MAINLY NEAR THE MOUNTAINS. CHANCE-CATEGORY POPS HAVE ALSO BEEN
MAINTAINED MOSTLY NEAR THE HIGHER TERRAIN EAST OF TUCSON FRI NIGHT-
SAT...WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ELSEWHERE.
ANY MEASURABLE PRECIP AMOUNTS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM SHOULD BE
FAIRLY LOW. THE MAIN CONCERN WILL BE THE POTENTIAL FOR MOSTLY DRY
MICROBURSTS ESPECIALLY FRI AFTERNOON AND AGAIN SAT. ASIDE FROM A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS ACROSS THE WHITE MTNS SAT NIGHT...DRY
CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL SAT NIGHT-MON AS HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT BUILDS
OVER THE AREA.

HIGH TEMPS THIS AFTERNOON WILL BE ABOUT 5 DEGS F OR SO WARMER VERSUS
MON...THEN EXPECT NO SIGNIFICANT DAILY TEMP CHANGES WED-THUR. COOLER
DAYTIME TEMPS WILL PREVAIL FRI...THEN A PRONOUNCED WARMING TREND WILL
OCCUR EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...A GENERALLY NWLY FLOW ALOFT REGIME WILL BRING SOME
CIRRUS CLOUDS TO SE AZ THRU WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. GUSTY ELY/SELY
SURFACE WINDS UP TO 20-25 KTS WILL OCCUR INTO EARLY THIS AFTERNOON...
THEN WINDS WILL DIMINISH AND BECOME WLY/NWLY GENERALLY LESS THAN 10
KTS LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING. STRONGER AND GUSTY WEST
WINDS WILL OCCUR WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AS A DISTURBANCE MOVES ACROSS
THE FOUR CORNERS REGION. AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR TAF
AMENDMENTS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...GUSTY EAST WINDS WILL OCCUR INTO EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON...THEN WINDS ARE FORECAST TO DIMINISH AND BECOME WEST TO
NORTHWEST LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING. A FIRE WEATHER WATCH
IS IN EFFECT FROM WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING FOR
EASTERN GRAHAM...SOUTHERN GREENLEE...SOUTHEASTERN SANTA CRUZ...AND
MUCH OF COCHISE COUNTIES. THE COMBINATION OF STRONG AND GUSTY WEST
WINDS AND VERY LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITIES WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR RAPID
FIRE GROWTH. OTHERWISE...EXPECT DRY CONDITIONS WITH ABOVE AVERAGE
DAYTIME TEMPERATURES THROUGH THURSDAY. THEREAFTER...THERE IS A
CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LATE FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY. AT
THIS TIME...APPEARS THAT MEASURABLE RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL BE QUITE
LOW. HOWEVER...GIVEN THE VERY DRY NEAR-SURFACE ENVIRONMENT...ANY
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS.

&&

.TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
    FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY
    EVENING FOR AZZ151-152.

&&

$$

VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...YOUTUBE...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/TUCSON

FRANCIS








000
FXUS65 KPSR 151030
AFDPSR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PHOENIX AZ
330 AM MST TUE APR 15 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
DRY WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL PERSIST THROUGH MUCH OF THE WORK WEEK
WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES WARMING INTO THE 90S OVER THE WARMER DESERTS.
A WEAK UPPER LEVEL LOW APPROACHING FROM THE EAST PACIFIC WILL SPREAD
INCREASING MOISTURE AND CLOUDS INTO THE AREA FRIDAY INTO THE
EARLY WEEKEND...LEADING TO A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS ACROSS SOUTH
CENTRAL ARIZONA AND THE POSSIBILITY FOR SLIGHTLY COOLER DAYTIME
TEMPERATURES. THE COOL DOWN WILL BE SHORT LIVED...AS HIGH PRESSURE
QUICKLY RETURNS FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
SKIES FOR THE FIRST PART OF THE OVERNIGHT HOURS STAYED CLEAR...MAKING
FOR GREAT VIEWING CONDITIONS FOR THE LUNAR ECLIPSE/BLOOD MOON. SOME
THIN HIGH CLOUDS HAVE JUST STARTED DRIFTING OVER JTNP AND SOUTHEAST
CALIFORNIA OVER THE LAST TWO HOURS ASSOCIATED WITH WEAK TROUGHING
STRETCHING FROM CALIFORNIA THROUGH THE NORTHERN ROCKIES. THE THICKER
CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN MOSTLY ACROSS NORTHERN
ARIZONA...LEAVING PERIODS OF MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES FOR THE SOUTH-CENTRAL
AZ AND SOUTHEAST CA DESERTS TODAY.

FLOW ALOFT REMAINS FROM THE NORTHWEST WITH 1000-500MB THICKNESSES
GRADUALLY INCREASING EACH DAY THROUGH THURSDAY AFTERNOON. DAYTIME
TEMPERATURES WILL SEE A SUBTLE WARMING TREND WITH WIDESPREAD 90S IN
THE FORECAST FOR THE MAJORITY OF THE LOWER DESERT ELEVATIONS. ANOTHER
AREA OF COMPACT VORT ENERGY WILL MOVE THROUGH THE SUBTLE
TROUGHING/NORTHWEST FLOW ACROSS WESTERN CONUS ON WEDNESDAY. BULK OF
THE ENERGY AND COOLER AIR REMAINS WELL TO OUR NORTH WITH THE ONLY
SENSIBLE IMPACT ON OUR FORECAST AREA BEING ENHANCED AFTERNOON
WESTERLY BREEZES.

BY LATE THURSDAY...LONGWAVE TROUGHING OVER THE WEST WILL SYNC UP
WITH AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE...CURRENTLY CIRCULATING IN THE EASTERN
PACIFIC...INTRODUCING SOUTH/SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT INTO THE
SOUTHWEST STATES. THIS LOW AND LIMITED AMOUNT PACIFIC MOISTURE WILL
MOVE THROUGH THE AREA FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY. MODEL SOUNDINGS PLOT THE
MAJORITY OF THE MOISTURE AT AND ABOVE THE 600MB LEVEL WITH VERY DRY
SUB-CLOUD LAYERS AND INVERTED V TRACES BELOW...PARTICULARLY OVER
SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA. STILL DO NOT BELIEVE THIS SYSTEM TO BE MOIST
ENOUGH TO WARRANT ANYTHING MORE THAN LOW-END SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR
OVERNIGHT FRIDAY AND EARLY SATURDAY ACROSS CENTRAL ARIZONA WITH ONLY
SLIGHTLY HIGHER AMOUNTS OVER THE MORE FAVORABLY ORIENTED HIGHER
TERRAIN. SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL IS NOT EXPECTED...BUT LIGHT SPRINKLES
AND VIRGA ARE MORE LIKELY FROM MARICOPA COUNTY EASTWARD. AS WE`VE
ALREADY SEEN BEFORE THIS SPRING...HIGH BASED SHOWERS AND DRY SUB-
CLOUD LAYERS COULD ENHANCE WIND GUSTS IN THE AFTERNOON HOURS. WITH
THE LOWER HEIGHTS...STILL IN THE 568-570DM RANGE AT 500MB AND 850MB
TEMPS FALLING IN THE 16C TO 17C RANGE...TEMPERATURES SHOULD SEE A
SLIGHT COOL DOWN AND DROP BACK TOWARDS MORE SEASONABLE READINGS IN
THE MID TO UPPER 80S FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.

BEYOND SATURDAY...CONFIDENCE IN THE MODEL FORECASTS BEGINS TO WANE.
500MB HEIGHTS RAPIDLY RISE INTO THE 580DM RANGE...BRINGING THE 90S
BACK FOR HIGH TEMPERATURES SUNDAY. HOWEVER...BEYOND THAT
POINT...MODEL SOLUTIONS BEGIN TO GREATLY DIVERGE BETWEEN STRONG
RIDGING DIRECTLY OVERHEAD (ECMWF) VERSUS RIDGING ANCHORED TO OUR EAST
(GFS). THIS LEADS TO A WIDE RANGE FOR POTENTIAL HIGH TEMPERATURES
EARLY NEXT WEEK...WITH THE ECMWF INTRODUCING WIDESPREAD TRIPLE-DIGIT
READINGS WHILE THE COOLER GFS LEAVES US IN THE 90S. FOR NOW WENT WITH
A PERSISTENCE HIGH TEMPERATURE FORECAST...LOW TO MID 90S FOR EARLY
NEXT WEEK WITH DRY CONDITIONS AND MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES.

&&

.AVIATION...
SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA INCLUDING KPHX...KIWA...AND KSDL...AND
SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA AND SOUTHWEST ARIZONA INCLUDING KIPL AND KBLH...

NO AVIATION CONCERNS THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON AS ONLY OCCASIONAL
CIRRUS WILL SPILL INTO THE AIR SPACE LATE IN THE PERIOD. SFC WINDS
WILL BE MUCH WEAKER THAN THE PAST 2 DAYS...GENERALLY FOLLOWING
TYPICAL DIURNAL DIRECTIONAL TRENDS. IN SOME CASES...LIGHT AND
VARIABLE OR CALM WINDS WILL PREVAIL FOR PROLONGED PERIODS.

AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDED TAFS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY...
A WEAK WEATHER DISTURBANCE WILL BRING A MODEST INCREASE IN
MOISTURE...CLOUDINESS...AND AFTERNOON BREEZINESS TO THE DISTRICT
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. THERE WILL ALSO BE A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS WITH THIS IMPULSE...PARTICULARLY ACROSS THE HIGHER
TERRAIN NORTH AND EAST OF PHOENIX. EVEN WITH SOMEWHAT MORE MOIST
CONDITIONS...AFTERNOON HUMIDITY LEVELS WILL STILL FALL INTO THE
TEENS...AND ANY THUNDERSTORM GENERATED GUSTY WINDS MAY POSE AN
ENHANCED FIRE WEATHER RISK GIVEN THE ANTECEDENT DRY FUEL CONDITIONS.
OTHERWISE...THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK WILL RESUME A WARMER WEATHER
REGIME AWAITING THE POTENTIAL FOR THE NEXT LARGER PACIFIC STORM
SYSTEM.

&&

.PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

AZ...NONE.

CA...NONE.

&&

$$

VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/PHOENIX

DISCUSSION...NOLTE
AVIATION....MO
FIRE WEATHER...MO






000
FXUS65 KPSR 151030
AFDPSR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PHOENIX AZ
330 AM MST TUE APR 15 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
DRY WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL PERSIST THROUGH MUCH OF THE WORK WEEK
WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES WARMING INTO THE 90S OVER THE WARMER DESERTS.
A WEAK UPPER LEVEL LOW APPROACHING FROM THE EAST PACIFIC WILL SPREAD
INCREASING MOISTURE AND CLOUDS INTO THE AREA FRIDAY INTO THE
EARLY WEEKEND...LEADING TO A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS ACROSS SOUTH
CENTRAL ARIZONA AND THE POSSIBILITY FOR SLIGHTLY COOLER DAYTIME
TEMPERATURES. THE COOL DOWN WILL BE SHORT LIVED...AS HIGH PRESSURE
QUICKLY RETURNS FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
SKIES FOR THE FIRST PART OF THE OVERNIGHT HOURS STAYED CLEAR...MAKING
FOR GREAT VIEWING CONDITIONS FOR THE LUNAR ECLIPSE/BLOOD MOON. SOME
THIN HIGH CLOUDS HAVE JUST STARTED DRIFTING OVER JTNP AND SOUTHEAST
CALIFORNIA OVER THE LAST TWO HOURS ASSOCIATED WITH WEAK TROUGHING
STRETCHING FROM CALIFORNIA THROUGH THE NORTHERN ROCKIES. THE THICKER
CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN MOSTLY ACROSS NORTHERN
ARIZONA...LEAVING PERIODS OF MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES FOR THE SOUTH-CENTRAL
AZ AND SOUTHEAST CA DESERTS TODAY.

FLOW ALOFT REMAINS FROM THE NORTHWEST WITH 1000-500MB THICKNESSES
GRADUALLY INCREASING EACH DAY THROUGH THURSDAY AFTERNOON. DAYTIME
TEMPERATURES WILL SEE A SUBTLE WARMING TREND WITH WIDESPREAD 90S IN
THE FORECAST FOR THE MAJORITY OF THE LOWER DESERT ELEVATIONS. ANOTHER
AREA OF COMPACT VORT ENERGY WILL MOVE THROUGH THE SUBTLE
TROUGHING/NORTHWEST FLOW ACROSS WESTERN CONUS ON WEDNESDAY. BULK OF
THE ENERGY AND COOLER AIR REMAINS WELL TO OUR NORTH WITH THE ONLY
SENSIBLE IMPACT ON OUR FORECAST AREA BEING ENHANCED AFTERNOON
WESTERLY BREEZES.

BY LATE THURSDAY...LONGWAVE TROUGHING OVER THE WEST WILL SYNC UP
WITH AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE...CURRENTLY CIRCULATING IN THE EASTERN
PACIFIC...INTRODUCING SOUTH/SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT INTO THE
SOUTHWEST STATES. THIS LOW AND LIMITED AMOUNT PACIFIC MOISTURE WILL
MOVE THROUGH THE AREA FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY. MODEL SOUNDINGS PLOT THE
MAJORITY OF THE MOISTURE AT AND ABOVE THE 600MB LEVEL WITH VERY DRY
SUB-CLOUD LAYERS AND INVERTED V TRACES BELOW...PARTICULARLY OVER
SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA. STILL DO NOT BELIEVE THIS SYSTEM TO BE MOIST
ENOUGH TO WARRANT ANYTHING MORE THAN LOW-END SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR
OVERNIGHT FRIDAY AND EARLY SATURDAY ACROSS CENTRAL ARIZONA WITH ONLY
SLIGHTLY HIGHER AMOUNTS OVER THE MORE FAVORABLY ORIENTED HIGHER
TERRAIN. SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL IS NOT EXPECTED...BUT LIGHT SPRINKLES
AND VIRGA ARE MORE LIKELY FROM MARICOPA COUNTY EASTWARD. AS WE`VE
ALREADY SEEN BEFORE THIS SPRING...HIGH BASED SHOWERS AND DRY SUB-
CLOUD LAYERS COULD ENHANCE WIND GUSTS IN THE AFTERNOON HOURS. WITH
THE LOWER HEIGHTS...STILL IN THE 568-570DM RANGE AT 500MB AND 850MB
TEMPS FALLING IN THE 16C TO 17C RANGE...TEMPERATURES SHOULD SEE A
SLIGHT COOL DOWN AND DROP BACK TOWARDS MORE SEASONABLE READINGS IN
THE MID TO UPPER 80S FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.

BEYOND SATURDAY...CONFIDENCE IN THE MODEL FORECASTS BEGINS TO WANE.
500MB HEIGHTS RAPIDLY RISE INTO THE 580DM RANGE...BRINGING THE 90S
BACK FOR HIGH TEMPERATURES SUNDAY. HOWEVER...BEYOND THAT
POINT...MODEL SOLUTIONS BEGIN TO GREATLY DIVERGE BETWEEN STRONG
RIDGING DIRECTLY OVERHEAD (ECMWF) VERSUS RIDGING ANCHORED TO OUR EAST
(GFS). THIS LEADS TO A WIDE RANGE FOR POTENTIAL HIGH TEMPERATURES
EARLY NEXT WEEK...WITH THE ECMWF INTRODUCING WIDESPREAD TRIPLE-DIGIT
READINGS WHILE THE COOLER GFS LEAVES US IN THE 90S. FOR NOW WENT WITH
A PERSISTENCE HIGH TEMPERATURE FORECAST...LOW TO MID 90S FOR EARLY
NEXT WEEK WITH DRY CONDITIONS AND MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES.

&&

.AVIATION...
SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA INCLUDING KPHX...KIWA...AND KSDL...AND
SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA AND SOUTHWEST ARIZONA INCLUDING KIPL AND KBLH...

NO AVIATION CONCERNS THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON AS ONLY OCCASIONAL
CIRRUS WILL SPILL INTO THE AIR SPACE LATE IN THE PERIOD. SFC WINDS
WILL BE MUCH WEAKER THAN THE PAST 2 DAYS...GENERALLY FOLLOWING
TYPICAL DIURNAL DIRECTIONAL TRENDS. IN SOME CASES...LIGHT AND
VARIABLE OR CALM WINDS WILL PREVAIL FOR PROLONGED PERIODS.

AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDED TAFS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY...
A WEAK WEATHER DISTURBANCE WILL BRING A MODEST INCREASE IN
MOISTURE...CLOUDINESS...AND AFTERNOON BREEZINESS TO THE DISTRICT
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. THERE WILL ALSO BE A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS WITH THIS IMPULSE...PARTICULARLY ACROSS THE HIGHER
TERRAIN NORTH AND EAST OF PHOENIX. EVEN WITH SOMEWHAT MORE MOIST
CONDITIONS...AFTERNOON HUMIDITY LEVELS WILL STILL FALL INTO THE
TEENS...AND ANY THUNDERSTORM GENERATED GUSTY WINDS MAY POSE AN
ENHANCED FIRE WEATHER RISK GIVEN THE ANTECEDENT DRY FUEL CONDITIONS.
OTHERWISE...THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK WILL RESUME A WARMER WEATHER
REGIME AWAITING THE POTENTIAL FOR THE NEXT LARGER PACIFIC STORM
SYSTEM.

&&

.PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

AZ...NONE.

CA...NONE.

&&

$$

VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/PHOENIX

DISCUSSION...NOLTE
AVIATION....MO
FIRE WEATHER...MO





000
FXUS65 KFGZ 150938
AFDFGZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ
240 AM MST TUE APR 152014

.SYNOPSIS...WARM AND DRY WEATHER IS FORECAST FROM TODAY THROUGH
THURSDAY...WITH BREEZY WINDS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. A WEAK LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BRING CLOUDS AND A CHANCE OF SHOWERS FROM
FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT.
&&

.DISCUSSION...
FOR TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY...FAIR AND DRY WEATHER IS FORECAST WITH
MAX TEMPERATURES 5 TO 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. THIN CIRRUS CLOUDS
WILL CROSS THE STATE TODAY.

MODELS SHOW A WEAK WEATHER DISTURBANCE BRUSHING THE ARIZONA/UTAH
BORDER WEDNESDAY...WITH THE MAIN IMPACT BEING A BREEZY AFTERNOON
WITH WEST-NORTHWEST WINDS IN THE 15-25 MPH RANGE.

FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW ANOTHER WEAK LOW
MEANDERING ACROSS ARIZONA. ONLY EXPECTING A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS
FROM THIS SYSTEM AND WILL CONTINUE THE SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS. THE
LOW IS FORECAST TO MOVE EAST OF THE STATE ON SUNDAY...WITH DRY
CONDITIONS AND WELL ABOVE NORMAL MAX TEMPERATURES SUNDAY AND MONDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 12Z PACKAGE...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR
THE NEXT 24 HOURS. AFT 18Z...WINDS BECOMING SW5-15 KTS. AVIATION
DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDMENTS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...A WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE ACROSS
ARIZONA TODAY. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE EARLY...BECOMING
SOUTHWESTERLY BY THIS AFTERNOON. ON WEDNESDAY...A WEAK WEATHER
DISTURBANCE WILL BRING INCREASING WINDS. WIND SPEEDS MAY APPROACH
CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER THRESHOLDS BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AROUND THE
WHITE MOUNTAINS AND EASTERN LITTLE COLORADO RIVER VALLEY. MINIMUM
RELATIVE HUMIDITIES OF 6 TO 12 PERCENT CAN BE EXPECTED.

THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...A RIDGE WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE
SOUTHWEST ON THURSDAY BRINGING LIGHTER WINDS TO THE AREA. A WEAK
PACIFIC LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST ON FRIDAY
AND SATURDAY AND WILL BRING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS ALONG WITH HIGHER
AFTERNOON RELATIVE HUMIDITY.


.FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC.........DL
AVIATION.......DB
FIRE WEATHER...DB

FOR NORTHERN ARIZONA WEATHER INFORMATION VISIT
WEATHER.GOV/FLAGSTAFF









000
FXUS65 KFGZ 150412
AFDFGZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ
910 PM MST MON APR 14 2014

.SYNOPSIS...EXPECT A COLD NIGHT TONIGHT...WITH LOW TEMPERATURES
DROPPING SEVERAL DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES
RETURN FOR TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY. A WEAK STORM SYSTEM WILL
BRING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS BY FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...DRY WEST-NORTHWEST FLOW WILL DOMINATE THE SHORT TERM
WITH A COLD NIGHT EXPECTED TONIGHT AND DRY...BUT SEASONABLY WARM
CONDITIONS TOMORROW. THIS TREND WILL CONTINUE FOR A FEW DAYS WITH
SOME HIGH-BASED CONVECTION POSSIBLE LATER THIS WEEK. UPDATES ARE
NOT NEEDED THIS EVENING.

&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 06Z PACKAGE...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR
THE NEXT 24 HOURS. AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDMENTS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...DRY NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL CONTINUE FOR THE
NEXT FEW DAYS. SURFACE WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE
OVERNIGHT...THEN SHIFT TO SOUTHWESTERLY AND GRADUALLY INCREASE FOR
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. WIND SPEEDS WILL REACH UP TO NEAR CRITICAL
FIRE WEATHER THRESHOLDS BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AROUND THE WHITE
MOUNTAINS AND EASTERN LITTLE COLORADO RIVER VALLEY. DRY CONDITIONS
ARE EXPECTED EACH AFTERNOON.

THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...EXPECT LIGHT TO BREEZY SOUTHWEST WINDS
AS ANOTHER WEAK AND RELATIVELY DRY STORM SYSTEM APPROACHES. MINIMUM
RELATIVE HUMIDITIES WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE WHILE TEMPERATURES
DECREASE. A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION WILL BEGIN AS EARLY AS
FRIDAY ALTHOUGH SIGNIFICANT AMOUNTS ARE NOT LIKELY.

&&

.FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC.........PETERSON
AVIATION.......PETERSON
FIRE WEATHER...DJO

FOR NORTHERN ARIZONA WEATHER INFORMATION VISIT
WEATHER.GOV/FLAGSTAFF







000
FXUS65 KTWC 150400
AFDTWC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ
900 PM MST MON APR 14 2014

.SYNOPSIS...EXPECT GUSTY EAST WINDS AT TIMES LATE TONIGHT INTO
TUESDAY MORNING...WITH STRONG GUSTY WEST WINDS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.
OTHERWISE DRY CONDITIONS WITH ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES MOST OF THE
WEEK. A PACIFIC LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO BRING A CHANCE OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LATE FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS UPPER LEVEL RIDGING BUILDING
IN FROM THE WEST. IR IMAGERY SHOWS MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES ACROSS ALL OF
THE DESERT SOUTHWEST WITH SOME HIGH CIRRUS CLOUDS SPILLING IN FROM
THE WEST ACROSS PORTIONS OF CALIFORNIA AND NEVADA.

WITH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE FRONT RANGE...THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT OVER THE REGION WILL TIGHTEN OVERNIGHT...ESPECIALLY AREAS
EAST OF TUCSON TOWARD THE NEW MEXICO BORDER. THIS WILL RESULT IN
EASTERLY WINDS DEVELOPING LATE TONIGHT BECOMING OCCASIONALLY GUSTY.

AS OF 03Z (8 PM MST)...TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE REGION RANGED FROM
THE UPPER 50S TO THE MID 70S WITH THE TUCSON INTL AIRPORT REPORTING
A TEMP OF 75 DEGS AFTER REACHING AN AFTERNOON HIGH OF 83 DEGS...
WHICH WAS 1 DEG ABOVE NORMAL. WILL MAKE SOME ADJUSTMENTS TO THE
SHORT TERM TEMPERATURE AND DEWPOINT TEMPERATURE GRIDS TO BETTER
REFLECT RECENT TRENDS AND WILL UPDATE PRODUCTS SHORTLY. OTHERWISE...
THE FORECAST IS ON TRACK.

FOR DETAILS REGARDING THE FORECAST BEYOND TONIGHT...PLEASE REFER TO
THE PREVIOUS DISCUSSION BELOW.

&&

.AVIATION...CLEAR SKIES INTO EARLY TUESDAY MORNING...WITH SCT-BKN
CIRRUS LEVEL CLOUD SPREADING IN FROM THE WEST AFTER 15/09Z. SURFACE
WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE LESS THAN KTS THROUGH AROUND 15/06Z.
THEREAFTER INTO TUESDAY MORNING....SURFACE WINDS WILL BEGIN TO
TRANSITION TO ELY/SELY 10-18 KTS WITH GUSTS TO 25 KTS. STRONGER
ELY/SELY WIND SPEEDS WILL OCCUR LATER TUESDAY MORNING THEN BEGIN TO
DIMINISH TUESDAY AFTER 15/18Z. AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR
TAF AMENDMENTS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...GUSTY EAST WINDS TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING. A
FIRE WEATHER WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON INCLUDING
EASTERN GRAHAM...SOUTHERN GREENLEE...SOUTHEASTERN SANTA CRUZ...AND
MUCH OF COCHISE COUNTIES. LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY COMBINED WITH BREEZY
TO WINDY WEST WINDS WILL PROVIDE CONDITIONS FAVORABLE FOR RAPID FIRE
GROWTH. OTHERWISE...EXPECT DRY CONDITIONS WITH ABOVE AVERAGE DAYTIME
TEMPERATURES THROUGH THURSDAY. THEREAFTER...THERE IS A CHANCE OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LATE FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY. THE CLOUD BASES
WILL BE FAIRLY HIGH...WITH VERY DRY CONDITIONS BELOW.
THEREFORE....ANY THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING GUSTY
AND ERRATIC WINDS.

&&

.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...DRY AND RELATIVELY COOLER NORTHWESTERLY FLOW
WITH A GREAT VIEW FOR THE TOTAL ECLIPSE TONIGHT. WESTERLY COMPONENT
TO FLOW INCREASING AT MID AND UPPER LEVELS WITH CIRRUS STARTING TO
FILTER IN FROM THE WEST IN THE EARLY MORNING HOURS.

ENHANCED EASTERLY GRADIENT BEHIND WEAK BOUNDARY WILL BRING BREEZY TO
LOCALLY WINDY EAST WINDS TUESDAY MORNING. WINDS PICKING UP OVERNIGHT
IN SOME LOCATIONS AS BOUNDARY LAYERS REMAIN MIXED OR MIX OUT EARLY.

ENERGY PUSHING THROUGH THE GREAT BASIN NORTH OF US WILL ENHANCE OUR
GRADIENT INTO THE BREEZY TO WINDY CATEGORY AGAIN WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON. FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS WITH A WATCH EAST OF
TUCSON...DETAILS BELOW.

STILL WATCHING MEDIUM RANGE MODEL RESOLUTIONS WITH BOTH ECMWF AND
GFS GRABBING ONTO A NICE LITTLE IMPULSE SPLITTING INTO THE BASE OF
THE RIDGE WELL OFFSHORE AROUND MID WEEK AND COMBINING WITH MODEST
SUBTROPICAL INFLUENCES. PREVIOUS ECMWF RUN STARTED TRIED TO CUT OFF
SOME OF THIS ENERGY BUT IS NOW OPENING UP AGAIN WITH THE 12Z RUN.
GFS REMAINS WEAKER AND MORE PROGRESSIVE. STILL HAS STRONG POTENTIAL
OF SHAPING UP INTO A DECENT CHANCE OF CONVECTION AND COULD END UP
CAUSING DRY MICROBURST CONCERNS BY NEXT SATURDAY AFTERNOON. WE
TYPICALLY HAVE A COUPLE OF THESE SNEAK IN DURING THE SPRING AND GIVE
A BRIEF EARLY TASTE OF SUMMER THUNDERSTORM SEASON AS RAPIDLY
INCREASING SOLAR INSOLATION ADDS TO THE MIX.

&&

.TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...FIRE WEATHER WATCH WEDNESDAY
  AFTERNOON AND EVENING FOR SOUTHEAST AZZ151 AND SOUTHERN AZZ152.
  (INCLUDING COCHISE...SOUTHEAST SANTA CRUZ...EAST GRAHAM AND
  SOUTHERN GREENLEE COUNTIES)

&&

$$

VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...YOUTUBE...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/TUCSON

CURRENT DISCUSSION/AVIATION...MOLLERE
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION/FIRE WEATHER...MEYER/HUMPHREYS/MEADOWS







000
FXUS65 KPSR 150349
AFDPSR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PHOENIX AZ
845 PM MST MON APR 14 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
DRY WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL PERSIST THROUGH MUCH OF THE WORK WEEK
WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES WARMING INTO THE 90S OVER THE WARMER DESERTS.
A WEAK UPPER LEVEL LOW APPROACHING FROM THE EAST PACIFIC WILL SPREAD
INCREASING MOISTURE AND CLOUDS INTO THE AREA FRIDAY INTO THE
WEEKEND...LEADING TO A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL
ARIZONA AND THE POSSIBILITY FOR SLIGHTLY COOLER DAYTIME TEMPERATURES.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
WITH THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WELL REMOVED FROM THE REGION AND WASHED
OUT OVER THE MOUNTAINS OF MEXICO...AND SHORTWAVE RIDGING/LIGHT NWLY
FLOW ENVELOPING THE FORECAST AREA...THE PRESSURE GRADIENT HAS
WEAKENED SUBSTANTIALLY IN THE PAST 6 HOURS ALLOWING WINDS TO SLACKEN
OFF RAPIDLY. DESPITE A VERY DRY BOUNDARY LAYER AND THE LIGHTER
WINDS...EVENING TEMPERATURES HAVE BEEN SOMEWHAT SLOW TO
COOL...THOUGH THE TREND IN NOCTURNAL COOLING SHOULD HASTEN LATER
THIS EVENING. ONLY THESE MINOR HOURLY ADJUSTMENTS WERE NECESSARY TO
THE FORECAST THIS EVENING.

&&

.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
/150 PM MST MON APR 14 2014/
LATEST SHORT-TERM GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT WINDS WILL
CONTINUE TO SUBSIDE THIS EVENING AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WEAKENS IN
RESPONSE TO A RIDGE IN THE GREAT BASIN EDGING EASTWARD. FOR VIEWING
THE LUNAR ECLIPSE TONIGHT...MODEL CONSENSUS INDICATES GENERALLY
CLEAR SKIES...EXCEPT FOR SOME INCREASING CIRRUS ACROSS SE CA TOWARDS
MORNING.

BY TUESDAY...DRY NORTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL SET UP OVER THE WESTERN
CONUS WITH SUBTLY INCREASING 1000-500MB THICKNESSES EACH DAY. THIS
WILL RESULT IN A RETURN TO UPPER 80 TO LOW 90 DEGREE READINGS. SKIES
WILL BE MOSTLY CLEAR WITH SOME PASSING HIGH CLOUDS EXPECTED TUESDAY.
ANOTHER WEAK SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE THROUGH TO NORTH ACROSS THE GREAT
BASIN STATES LATE WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. THE BULK OF THE
ENERGY...COOLER AIR AND LIMITED MOISTURE REMAINS WELL TO OUR NORTH
ONLY ENHANCING DAYTIME WINDS OVER THE FORECAST AREA FOR WEDNESDAY
AND HAVING LITTLE COOLING EFFECT ON OUR TEMPERATURES.

MODEL SOLUTIONS ARE IN DECENT AGREEMENT NOW THROUGH SATURDAY
MORNING...COMPARED TO THEIR PREVIOUS PERFORMANCE OVER LATE LAST WEEK
WITH THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN. WEAK TROUGHING AND PACIFIC LOW ENERGY
WILL MOVE THROUGH THE SOUTHWEST OFF THE EASTERN PACIFIC...INTRODUCING
LOWER HEIGHTS...SLIGHT PROFILE COOLING AND ENOUGH MOISTURE TO
CONTINUE THE SLIGHT SHOWER/THUNDER CHANCES FOR LATE FRIDAY INTO
SATURDAY. THE LATEST GFS/ECMWF/GEM RUNS BRING 500MB HEIGHTS DOWN IN
TO THE 566-570DM RANGE AS THE LOW MOVES ON-SHORE ALONG WITH
INCREASING PWATS IN THE 0.60-0.75 IN RANGE PUSHING INTO SOUTHEAST CA
/SOUTH-CENTRAL AZ OVERNIGHT FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. MADE LITTLE CHANGE
TO THE EXTENDED POP GRID FORECAST...WITH SLIGHT CHANCES DOWN
THROUGHOUT PORTIONS OF SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA...INCLUDING THE PHOENIX
METRO AREA...FOR FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY. STILL NOT EXPECTING MUCH
BY WAY OF MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION AT THIS TIME. WITH THE LOWER
HEIGHTS...TEMPERATURES WILL SEE A SLIGHT COOL DOWN AND DROP BACK
TOWARDS MORE SEASONABLE READINGS IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...
SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA INCLUDING KPHX...KIWA...AND KSDL...AND
SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA AND SOUTHWEST ARIZONA INCLUDING KIPL AND KBLH...

NO AVIATION CONCERNS THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON AS ONLY OCCASIONAL
CIRRUS WILL SPILL INTO THE AIR SPACE LATE IN THE PERIOD. SFC WINDS
WILL BE MUCH WEAKER THAN THE PAST 2 DAYS...GENERALLY FOLLOWING
TYPICAL DIURNAL DIRECTIONAL TRENDS. IN SOME CASES...LIGHT AND
VARIABLE OR CALM WINDS WILL PREVAIL FOR PROLONGED PERIODS.

AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDED TAFS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY...
A WEAK WEATHER DISTURBANCE WILL BRING A MODEST INCREASE IN
MOISTURE...CLOUDINESS...AND AFTERNOON BREEZINESS TO THE DISTRICT
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. THERE WILL ALSO BE A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS WITH THIS IMPULSE...PARTICULARLY ACROSS THE HIGHER
TERRAIN NORTH AND EAST OF PHOENIX. EVEN WITH SOMEWHAT MORE MOIST
CONDITIONS...AFTERNOON HUMIDITY LEVELS WILL STILL FALL INTO THE
TEENS...AND ANY THUNDERSTORM GENERATED GUSTY WINDS MAY POSE AN
ENHANCED FIRE WEATHER RISK GIVEN THE ANTECEDENT DRY FUEL CONDITIONS.
OTHERWISE...THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK WILL RESUME A WARMER WEATHER
REGIME AWAITING THE POTENTIAL FOR THE NEXT LARGER PACIFIC STORM
SYSTEM.

&&

.PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

AZ...NONE.

CA...NONE.

&&

$$

VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/PHOENIX

DISCUSSION...MO
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...HIRSCH/NOLTE
AVIATION....MO
FIRE WEATHER...MO






000
FXUS65 KPSR 150349
AFDPSR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PHOENIX AZ
845 PM MST MON APR 14 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
DRY WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL PERSIST THROUGH MUCH OF THE WORK WEEK
WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES WARMING INTO THE 90S OVER THE WARMER DESERTS.
A WEAK UPPER LEVEL LOW APPROACHING FROM THE EAST PACIFIC WILL SPREAD
INCREASING MOISTURE AND CLOUDS INTO THE AREA FRIDAY INTO THE
WEEKEND...LEADING TO A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL
ARIZONA AND THE POSSIBILITY FOR SLIGHTLY COOLER DAYTIME TEMPERATURES.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
WITH THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WELL REMOVED FROM THE REGION AND WASHED
OUT OVER THE MOUNTAINS OF MEXICO...AND SHORTWAVE RIDGING/LIGHT NWLY
FLOW ENVELOPING THE FORECAST AREA...THE PRESSURE GRADIENT HAS
WEAKENED SUBSTANTIALLY IN THE PAST 6 HOURS ALLOWING WINDS TO SLACKEN
OFF RAPIDLY. DESPITE A VERY DRY BOUNDARY LAYER AND THE LIGHTER
WINDS...EVENING TEMPERATURES HAVE BEEN SOMEWHAT SLOW TO
COOL...THOUGH THE TREND IN NOCTURNAL COOLING SHOULD HASTEN LATER
THIS EVENING. ONLY THESE MINOR HOURLY ADJUSTMENTS WERE NECESSARY TO
THE FORECAST THIS EVENING.

&&

.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
/150 PM MST MON APR 14 2014/
LATEST SHORT-TERM GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT WINDS WILL
CONTINUE TO SUBSIDE THIS EVENING AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WEAKENS IN
RESPONSE TO A RIDGE IN THE GREAT BASIN EDGING EASTWARD. FOR VIEWING
THE LUNAR ECLIPSE TONIGHT...MODEL CONSENSUS INDICATES GENERALLY
CLEAR SKIES...EXCEPT FOR SOME INCREASING CIRRUS ACROSS SE CA TOWARDS
MORNING.

BY TUESDAY...DRY NORTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL SET UP OVER THE WESTERN
CONUS WITH SUBTLY INCREASING 1000-500MB THICKNESSES EACH DAY. THIS
WILL RESULT IN A RETURN TO UPPER 80 TO LOW 90 DEGREE READINGS. SKIES
WILL BE MOSTLY CLEAR WITH SOME PASSING HIGH CLOUDS EXPECTED TUESDAY.
ANOTHER WEAK SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE THROUGH TO NORTH ACROSS THE GREAT
BASIN STATES LATE WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. THE BULK OF THE
ENERGY...COOLER AIR AND LIMITED MOISTURE REMAINS WELL TO OUR NORTH
ONLY ENHANCING DAYTIME WINDS OVER THE FORECAST AREA FOR WEDNESDAY
AND HAVING LITTLE COOLING EFFECT ON OUR TEMPERATURES.

MODEL SOLUTIONS ARE IN DECENT AGREEMENT NOW THROUGH SATURDAY
MORNING...COMPARED TO THEIR PREVIOUS PERFORMANCE OVER LATE LAST WEEK
WITH THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN. WEAK TROUGHING AND PACIFIC LOW ENERGY
WILL MOVE THROUGH THE SOUTHWEST OFF THE EASTERN PACIFIC...INTRODUCING
LOWER HEIGHTS...SLIGHT PROFILE COOLING AND ENOUGH MOISTURE TO
CONTINUE THE SLIGHT SHOWER/THUNDER CHANCES FOR LATE FRIDAY INTO
SATURDAY. THE LATEST GFS/ECMWF/GEM RUNS BRING 500MB HEIGHTS DOWN IN
TO THE 566-570DM RANGE AS THE LOW MOVES ON-SHORE ALONG WITH
INCREASING PWATS IN THE 0.60-0.75 IN RANGE PUSHING INTO SOUTHEAST CA
/SOUTH-CENTRAL AZ OVERNIGHT FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. MADE LITTLE CHANGE
TO THE EXTENDED POP GRID FORECAST...WITH SLIGHT CHANCES DOWN
THROUGHOUT PORTIONS OF SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA...INCLUDING THE PHOENIX
METRO AREA...FOR FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY. STILL NOT EXPECTING MUCH
BY WAY OF MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION AT THIS TIME. WITH THE LOWER
HEIGHTS...TEMPERATURES WILL SEE A SLIGHT COOL DOWN AND DROP BACK
TOWARDS MORE SEASONABLE READINGS IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...
SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA INCLUDING KPHX...KIWA...AND KSDL...AND
SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA AND SOUTHWEST ARIZONA INCLUDING KIPL AND KBLH...

NO AVIATION CONCERNS THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON AS ONLY OCCASIONAL
CIRRUS WILL SPILL INTO THE AIR SPACE LATE IN THE PERIOD. SFC WINDS
WILL BE MUCH WEAKER THAN THE PAST 2 DAYS...GENERALLY FOLLOWING
TYPICAL DIURNAL DIRECTIONAL TRENDS. IN SOME CASES...LIGHT AND
VARIABLE OR CALM WINDS WILL PREVAIL FOR PROLONGED PERIODS.

AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDED TAFS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY...
A WEAK WEATHER DISTURBANCE WILL BRING A MODEST INCREASE IN
MOISTURE...CLOUDINESS...AND AFTERNOON BREEZINESS TO THE DISTRICT
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. THERE WILL ALSO BE A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS WITH THIS IMPULSE...PARTICULARLY ACROSS THE HIGHER
TERRAIN NORTH AND EAST OF PHOENIX. EVEN WITH SOMEWHAT MORE MOIST
CONDITIONS...AFTERNOON HUMIDITY LEVELS WILL STILL FALL INTO THE
TEENS...AND ANY THUNDERSTORM GENERATED GUSTY WINDS MAY POSE AN
ENHANCED FIRE WEATHER RISK GIVEN THE ANTECEDENT DRY FUEL CONDITIONS.
OTHERWISE...THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK WILL RESUME A WARMER WEATHER
REGIME AWAITING THE POTENTIAL FOR THE NEXT LARGER PACIFIC STORM
SYSTEM.

&&

.PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

AZ...NONE.

CA...NONE.

&&

$$

VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/PHOENIX

DISCUSSION...MO
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...HIRSCH/NOLTE
AVIATION....MO
FIRE WEATHER...MO







000
FXUS65 KFGZ 142211
AFDFGZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ
308 PM MST MON APR 14 2014

.SYNOPSIS...WINDS WILL DIMINISH THIS EVENING...LEADING TO A COLD
NIGHT WITH LOW TEMPERATURES SEVERAL DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. WELL ABOVE
NORMAL TEMPERATURES RETURN FOR TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...WITH
BREEZY CONDITIONS WEDNESDAY. ANOTHER WEAK STORM SYSTEM WILL USHER IN
A CHANCE OF SHOWERS FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...GUSTY NORTH TO NORTHEAST WINDS ARE GRADUALLY
DIMINISHING THIS AFTERNOON AS GRADIENTS WEAKEN. BY TONIGHT...LIGHT
WIND COUPLED WITH A DRY AND COOL AIR MASS WILL LEAD TO OVERNIGHT
LOWS SEVERAL DEGREES COLDER THAN NORMAL. A HARD FREEZE IS LIKELY FOR
MOST LOCATIONS ALONG/NORTH OF THE MOGOLLON RIM...WITH A LIGHT
FREEZE POSSIBLE DOWN TO NEAR THE 5000 FOOT LEVEL IN YAVAPAI/GILA
COUNTIES. CLEAR SKIES TONIGHT WILL ALLOW FOR GOOD VIEWING CONDITIONS
FOR THE ECLIPSE.

TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...FAIR AND MAINLY DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED.
MODELS SHOW A WEAK WEATHER DISTURBANCE BRUSHING THE ARIZONA/UTAH
BORDER WEDNESDAY...SO THERE WILL BE AN OUTSIDE CHANCE OF SOME
HIGH-BASED SHOWERS NEAR THE 4-CORNERS BUT IT WILL REMAIN DRY
ELSEWHERE. TYPICAL SPRINGTIME BREEZES WILL CONTINUE...THOUGH
WEDNESDAY`S WIND WILL BE A BIT STRONGER...IN THE 15-25 MPH RANGE.

FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW ANOTHER WEAK LOW
MEANDERING ACROSS ARIZONA. ONLY EXPECTING A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS
FROM THIS SYSTEM AND WILL CONTINUE THE SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS.
THE LOW IS FORECAST TO MOVE EAST OF THE STATE BY SUNDAY AND MONDAY
OF NEXT WEEK...WITH DRY CONDITIONS AND WELL ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES.

&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 00Z PACKAGE...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR
THE NEXT 24 HOURS. NE WINDS WILL TAPER OFF OVERNIGHT...BECOMING
LIGHT AND VARIABLE BY 6-12Z. AFTER 18Z...WINDS BECOMING SW5-15 KTS.
AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDMENTS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...DRY NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL CONTINUE FOR THE
NEXT FEW DAYS. SURFACE WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE
OVERNIGHT...THEN SHIFT TO SOUTHWESTERLY AND GRADUALLY INCREASE FOR
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. WIND SPEEDS WILL REACH UP TO NEAR CRITICAL
FIRE WEATHER THRESHOLDS BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AROUND THE WHITE
MOUNTAINS AND EASTERN LITTLE COLORADO RIVER VALLEY. DRY CONDITIONS
ARE EXPECTED EACH AFTERNOON.

THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...EXPECT LIGHT TO BREEZY SOUTHWEST WINDS
AS ANOTHER WEAK AND RELATIVELY DRY STORM SYSTEM APPROACHES. MINIMUM
RELATIVE HUMIDITIES WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE WHILE TEMPERATURES
DECREASE. A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION WILL BEGIN AS EARLY AS
FRIDAY ALTHOUGH SIGNIFICANT AMOUNTS ARE NOT LIKELY.

&&

.FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC.........JJ
AVIATION.......DJO
FIRE WEATHER...DJO

FOR NORTHERN ARIZONA WEATHER INFORMATION VISIT WEATHER.GOV/FLAGSTAFF





000
FXUS65 KTWC 142112
AFDTWC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ
215 PM MST MON APR 14 2014

.SYNOPSIS...EXPECT GUSTY EAST WINDS AT TIMES LATE TONIGHT INTO
TUESDAY MORNING...WITH STRONG GUSTY WEST WINDS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.
OTHERWISE DRY CONDITIONS WITH ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES MOST OF THE
WEEK. A PACIFIC LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO BRING A CHANCE OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LATE FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...DRY AND RELATIVELY COOLER NORTHWESTERLY FLOW WITH A
GREAT VIEW FOR THE TOTAL ECLIPSE TONIGHT. WESTERLY COMPONENT TO FLOW
INCREASING AT MID AND UPPER LEVELS WITH CIRRUS STARTING TO FILTER IN
FROM THE WEST IN THE EARLY MORNING HOURS.

ENHANCED EASTERLY GRADIENT BEHIND WEAK BOUNDARY WILL BRING BREEZY TO
LOCALLY WINDY EAST WINDS TUESDAY MORNING. WINDS PICKING UP OVERNIGHT
IN SOME LOCATIONS AS BOUNDARY LAYERS REMAIN MIXED OR MIX OUT EARLY.

ENERGY PUSHING THROUGH THE GREAT BASIN NORTH OF US WILL ENHANCE OUR
GRADIENT INTO THE BREEZY TO WINDY CATEGORY AGAIN WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON. FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS WITH A WATCH EAST OF
TUCSON...DETAILS BELOW.

STILL WATCHING MEDIUM RANGE MODEL RESOLUTIONS WITH BOTH ECMWF AND
GFS GRABBING ONTO A NICE LITTLE IMPULSE SPLITTING INTO THE BASE OF
THE RIDGE WELL OFFSHORE AROUND MID WEEK AND COMBINING WITH MODEST
SUBTROPICAL INFLUENCES. PREVIOUS ECMWF RUN STARTED TRIED TO CUT OFF
SOME OF THIS ENERGY BUT IS NOW OPENING UP AGAIN WITH THE 12Z RUN.
GFS REMAINS WEAKER AND MORE PROGRESSIVE. STILL HAS STRONG POTENTIAL
OF SHAPING UP INTO A DECENT CHANCE OF CONVECTION AND COULD END UP
CAUSING DRY MICROBURST CONCERNS BY NEXT SATURDAY AFTERNOON. WE
TYPICALLY HAVE A COUPLE OF THESE SNEAK IN DURING THE SPRING AND GIVE
A BRIEF EARLY TASTE OF SUMMER THUNDERSTORM SEASON AS RAPIDLY
INCREASING SOLAR INSOLATION ADDS TO THE MIX.

&&

.AVIATION...CLEAR SKIES INTO EARLY TUESDAY MORNING...WITH SCT-BKN
CIRRUS LEVEL CLOUD SPREADING IN FROM THE WEST AFTER 15/06Z. SURFACE
WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE NLY/NWLY 10-15 KTS WITH GUSTS TO NEAR 20
KTS THROUGH 15/06Z. THEREAFTER INTO TUESDAY MORNING....SURFACE WINDS
WILL BEGIN TO TRANSITION TO ELY/SELY 10-18 KTS WITH GUSTS TO 25 KTS.
STRONGER ELY/SELY WIND SPEEDS WILL OCCUR LATER TUESDAY MORNING THEN
BEGIN TO DIMINISH TUESDAY AFTER 15/18Z. AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT
UPDATED FOR TAF AMENDMENTS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...GUSTY EAST WINDS TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING. A
FIRE WEATHER WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON INCLUDING
EASTERN GRAHAM...SOUTHERN GREENLEE...SOUTHEASTERN SANTA CRUZ...AND
MUCH OF COCHISE COUNTIES. LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY COMBINED WITH BREEZY
TO WINDY WEST WINDS WILL PROVIDE CONDITIONS FAVORABLE FOR RAPID FIRE
GROWTH. OTHERWISE...EXPECT DRY CONDITIONS WITH ABOVE AVERAGE DAYTIME
TEMPERATURES THROUGH THURSDAY. THEREAFTER...THERE IS A CHANCE OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LATE FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY. THE CLOUD BASES
WILL BE FAIRLY HIGH...WITH VERY DRY CONDITIONS BELOW.
THEREFORE....ANY THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING GUSTY
AND ERRATIC WINDS.

&&

.TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...FIRE WEATHER WATCH WEDNESDAY
  AFTERNOON AND EVENING FOR SOUTHEAST AZZ151 AND SOUTHERN AZZ152.
  (INCLUDING COCHISE...SOUTHEAST SANTA CRUZ...EAST GRAHAM AND
  SOUTHERN GREENLEE COUNTIES)

&&

$$

VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...YOUTUBE...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/TUCSON

MEYER/HUMPHREYS/MEADOWS







000
FXUS65 KPSR 142049 AAA
AFDPSR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PHOENIX AZ
150 PM MST MON APR 14 2014

.UPDATE...UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION.

.SYNOPSIS...
DRY WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL PERSIST THROUGH MUCH OF THE WORK WEEK
WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES WARMING INTO THE 90S OVER THE WARMER DESERTS.
A WEAK UPPER LEVEL LOW APPROACHING FROM THE EAST PACIFIC WILL SPREAD
INCREASING MOISTURE AND CLOUDS INTO THE AREA FRIDAY INTO THE
WEEKEND...LEADING TO A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL
ARIZONA AND THE POSSIBILITY FOR SLIGHTLY COOLER DAYTIME TEMPERATURES.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
POST-FRONTAL AIR MASS IS EVIDENT IN THE SURFACE OBSERVATIONS ACROSS
THE FORECAST AREA THIS AFTERNOON. IN ADDITION TO THE WIDESPREAD
BREEZY CONDITIONS...DEWPOINTS ARE LOW AS THE SINGLE DIGITS AND AS
MUCH 30 DEGREES LOWER THAN THOSE OBSERVED AT THIS TIME YESTERDAY.
LATEST TEMPERATURES ARE ALSO 2 TO AS MUCH AS 9 DEGREES COOLER THAN
YESTERDAY.

LATEST SHORT-TERM GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT WINDS
WILL CONTINUE TO SUBSIDE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT WEAKENS IN RESPONSE TO A RIDGE IN THE GREAT BASIN EDGING
EASTWARD. FOR VIEWING THE LUNAR ECLIPSE TONIGHT...MODEL CONSENSUS
INDICATES GENERALLY CLEAR SKIES...EXCEPT FOR SOME INCREASING CIRRUS
ACROSS SE CA TOWARDS MORNING.

&&

.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
BY TUESDAY...DRY NORTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL SET UP OVER THE WESTERN
CONUS WITH SUBTLY INCREASING 1000-500MB THICKNESSES EACH DAY. THIS
WILL RESULT IN A RETURN TO UPPER 80 TO LOW 90 DEGREE READINGS. SKIES
WILL BE MOSTLY CLEAR WITH SOME PASSING HIGH CLOUDS EXPECTED TUESDAY.
ANOTHER WEAK SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE THROUGH TO NORTH ACROSS THE GREAT
BASIN STATES LATE WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. THE BULK OF THE
ENERGY...COOLER AIR AND LIMITED MOISTURE REMAINS WELL TO OUR NORTH
ONLY ENHANCING DAYTIME WINDS OVER THE FORECAST AREA FOR WEDNESDAY
AND HAVING LITTLE COOLING EFFECT ON OUR TEMPERATURES.

MODEL SOLUTIONS ARE IN DECENT AGREEMENT NOW THROUGH SATURDAY
MORNING...COMPARED TO THEIR PREVIOUS PERFORMANCE OVER LATE LAST WEEK
WITH THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN. WEAK TROUGHING AND PACIFIC LOW ENERGY
WILL MOVE THROUGH THE SOUTHWEST OFF THE EASTERN PACIFIC...INTRODUCING
LOWER HEIGHTS...SLIGHT PROFILE COOLING AND ENOUGH MOISTURE TO
CONTINUE THE SLIGHT SHOWER/THUNDER CHANCES FOR LATE FRIDAY INTO
SATURDAY. THE LATEST GFS/ECMWF/GEM RUNS BRING 500MB HEIGHTS DOWN IN
TO THE 566-570DM RANGE AS THE LOW MOVES ON-SHORE ALONG WITH
INCREASING PWATS IN THE 0.60-0.75 IN RANGE PUSHING INTO SOUTHEAST CA
/SOUTH-CENTRAL AZ OVERNIGHT FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. MADE LITTLE CHANGE
TO THE EXTENDED POP GRID FORECAST...WITH SLIGHT CHANCES DOWN
THROUGHOUT PORTIONS OF SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA...INCLUDING THE PHOENIX
METRO AREA...FOR FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY. STILL NOT EXPECTING MUCH
BY WAY OF MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION AT THIS TIME. WITH THE LOWER
HEIGHTS...TEMPERATURES WILL SEE A SLIGHT COOL DOWN AND DROP BACK
TOWARDS MORE SEASONABLE READINGS IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...
SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA INCLUDING KPHX...KIWA...AND KSDL...

STRONG SFC HIGH PRESSURE THAT BUILT INTO THE 4-CORNERS REGION LAST
NIGHT...WHICH BROUGHT GUSTY NORTHEASTERLY WINDS TO THE PHX AREA
EARLIER TODAY...IS FORECAST TO WEAKEN RATHER RAPIDLY THIS
EVENING...ALLOWING WINDS AT ALL OF THE PHX AREA TERMINALS TO
GRADUALLY DIMINISH THROUGH THIS EVENING...WITH LIGHTER EASTERLY
BREEZES TO PREVAIL LATER TONIGHT AND INTO EARLY TUESDAY. LIGHT
WESTERLY WINDS TO RETURN ON TUESDAY AFTERNOON AS MORE TYPICAL
DIURNAL TRENDS TAKE HOLD. A VERY DRY AIRMASS TO KEEP SKIES MOSTLY
CLEAR THROUGH EARLY TUESDAY...WITH SOME WISPS OF CIRRUS TO MOVE OVER
THE REGION BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON.

SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA AND SOUTHWEST ARIZONA INCLUDING KIPL AND KBLH...

SFC HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE GREAT BASIN...WHICH BROUGHT GUSTY
NORTHERLY TO NORTHEASTERLY WINDS TO KIPL AND KBLH EARLIER TODAY TO
WEAKEN AND MOVE OFF TO THE EAST...ALLOWING WINDS AT BOTH KIPL AND
KBLH AREA TERMINALS TO GRADUALLY DIMINISH THROUGH THIS
EVENING...WITH MORE TYPICAL DIURNALLY-DRIVEN WINDS TO PREVAIL
TONIGHT AND ON TUESDAY. MAINLY CLEAR SKIES TONIGHT TO GIVE WAY TO
FEW-SCT CIRRUS DECKS ON TUESDAY.

AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDED TAFS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...
HIGH PRESSURE AND DRY WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES
ABOVE SEASONAL NORMALS...AND IN THE 90S OVER THE DESERTS...WEDNESDAY
THROUGH THURSDAY. BREEZY WEST WINDS...ESPECIALLY OVER SOUTH CENTRAL
ARIZONA...ARE EXPECTED WEDNESDAY WITH LESS WIND ON THURSDAY.
HUMIDITIES WILL REMAIN LOW BOTH DAYS...WITH MOST LOCALES LESS THAN
10 PERCENT. A WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE MOVING INTO THE REGION FROM
THE EASTERN PACIFIC WILL LEAD TO INCREASING CLOUDINESS...SUBTLE
COOLING...LOCAL BREEZINESS AND INCREASED MINIMUM HUMIDITIES FRIDAY
INTO SATURDAY. IN ADDITION...THERE WILL BE A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR
SHOWERS MAINLY ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL ARIZONA FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THE
DAY ON SATURDAY. DRIER AND WARMER CONDITIONS...ALONG WITH LESS
WIND...WILL RETURN SUNDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT BUILDS BACK IN FROM
THE WEST.

&&

.PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

AZ...NONE.

CA...NONE.

&&

$$

VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/PHOENIX

DISCUSSION...HIRSCH
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...NOLTE
AVIATION....PERCHA
FIRE WEATHER...CB








000
FXUS65 KPSR 142049 AAA
AFDPSR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PHOENIX AZ
150 PM MST MON APR 14 2014

.UPDATE...UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION.

.SYNOPSIS...
DRY WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL PERSIST THROUGH MUCH OF THE WORK WEEK
WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES WARMING INTO THE 90S OVER THE WARMER DESERTS.
A WEAK UPPER LEVEL LOW APPROACHING FROM THE EAST PACIFIC WILL SPREAD
INCREASING MOISTURE AND CLOUDS INTO THE AREA FRIDAY INTO THE
WEEKEND...LEADING TO A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL
ARIZONA AND THE POSSIBILITY FOR SLIGHTLY COOLER DAYTIME TEMPERATURES.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
POST-FRONTAL AIR MASS IS EVIDENT IN THE SURFACE OBSERVATIONS ACROSS
THE FORECAST AREA THIS AFTERNOON. IN ADDITION TO THE WIDESPREAD
BREEZY CONDITIONS...DEWPOINTS ARE LOW AS THE SINGLE DIGITS AND AS
MUCH 30 DEGREES LOWER THAN THOSE OBSERVED AT THIS TIME YESTERDAY.
LATEST TEMPERATURES ARE ALSO 2 TO AS MUCH AS 9 DEGREES COOLER THAN
YESTERDAY.

LATEST SHORT-TERM GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT WINDS
WILL CONTINUE TO SUBSIDE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT WEAKENS IN RESPONSE TO A RIDGE IN THE GREAT BASIN EDGING
EASTWARD. FOR VIEWING THE LUNAR ECLIPSE TONIGHT...MODEL CONSENSUS
INDICATES GENERALLY CLEAR SKIES...EXCEPT FOR SOME INCREASING CIRRUS
ACROSS SE CA TOWARDS MORNING.

&&

.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
BY TUESDAY...DRY NORTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL SET UP OVER THE WESTERN
CONUS WITH SUBTLY INCREASING 1000-500MB THICKNESSES EACH DAY. THIS
WILL RESULT IN A RETURN TO UPPER 80 TO LOW 90 DEGREE READINGS. SKIES
WILL BE MOSTLY CLEAR WITH SOME PASSING HIGH CLOUDS EXPECTED TUESDAY.
ANOTHER WEAK SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE THROUGH TO NORTH ACROSS THE GREAT
BASIN STATES LATE WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. THE BULK OF THE
ENERGY...COOLER AIR AND LIMITED MOISTURE REMAINS WELL TO OUR NORTH
ONLY ENHANCING DAYTIME WINDS OVER THE FORECAST AREA FOR WEDNESDAY
AND HAVING LITTLE COOLING EFFECT ON OUR TEMPERATURES.

MODEL SOLUTIONS ARE IN DECENT AGREEMENT NOW THROUGH SATURDAY
MORNING...COMPARED TO THEIR PREVIOUS PERFORMANCE OVER LATE LAST WEEK
WITH THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN. WEAK TROUGHING AND PACIFIC LOW ENERGY
WILL MOVE THROUGH THE SOUTHWEST OFF THE EASTERN PACIFIC...INTRODUCING
LOWER HEIGHTS...SLIGHT PROFILE COOLING AND ENOUGH MOISTURE TO
CONTINUE THE SLIGHT SHOWER/THUNDER CHANCES FOR LATE FRIDAY INTO
SATURDAY. THE LATEST GFS/ECMWF/GEM RUNS BRING 500MB HEIGHTS DOWN IN
TO THE 566-570DM RANGE AS THE LOW MOVES ON-SHORE ALONG WITH
INCREASING PWATS IN THE 0.60-0.75 IN RANGE PUSHING INTO SOUTHEAST CA
/SOUTH-CENTRAL AZ OVERNIGHT FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. MADE LITTLE CHANGE
TO THE EXTENDED POP GRID FORECAST...WITH SLIGHT CHANCES DOWN
THROUGHOUT PORTIONS OF SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA...INCLUDING THE PHOENIX
METRO AREA...FOR FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY. STILL NOT EXPECTING MUCH
BY WAY OF MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION AT THIS TIME. WITH THE LOWER
HEIGHTS...TEMPERATURES WILL SEE A SLIGHT COOL DOWN AND DROP BACK
TOWARDS MORE SEASONABLE READINGS IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...
SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA INCLUDING KPHX...KIWA...AND KSDL...

STRONG SFC HIGH PRESSURE THAT BUILT INTO THE 4-CORNERS REGION LAST
NIGHT...WHICH BROUGHT GUSTY NORTHEASTERLY WINDS TO THE PHX AREA
EARLIER TODAY...IS FORECAST TO WEAKEN RATHER RAPIDLY THIS
EVENING...ALLOWING WINDS AT ALL OF THE PHX AREA TERMINALS TO
GRADUALLY DIMINISH THROUGH THIS EVENING...WITH LIGHTER EASTERLY
BREEZES TO PREVAIL LATER TONIGHT AND INTO EARLY TUESDAY. LIGHT
WESTERLY WINDS TO RETURN ON TUESDAY AFTERNOON AS MORE TYPICAL
DIURNAL TRENDS TAKE HOLD. A VERY DRY AIRMASS TO KEEP SKIES MOSTLY
CLEAR THROUGH EARLY TUESDAY...WITH SOME WISPS OF CIRRUS TO MOVE OVER
THE REGION BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON.

SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA AND SOUTHWEST ARIZONA INCLUDING KIPL AND KBLH...

SFC HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE GREAT BASIN...WHICH BROUGHT GUSTY
NORTHERLY TO NORTHEASTERLY WINDS TO KIPL AND KBLH EARLIER TODAY TO
WEAKEN AND MOVE OFF TO THE EAST...ALLOWING WINDS AT BOTH KIPL AND
KBLH AREA TERMINALS TO GRADUALLY DIMINISH THROUGH THIS
EVENING...WITH MORE TYPICAL DIURNALLY-DRIVEN WINDS TO PREVAIL
TONIGHT AND ON TUESDAY. MAINLY CLEAR SKIES TONIGHT TO GIVE WAY TO
FEW-SCT CIRRUS DECKS ON TUESDAY.

AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDED TAFS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...
HIGH PRESSURE AND DRY WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES
ABOVE SEASONAL NORMALS...AND IN THE 90S OVER THE DESERTS...WEDNESDAY
THROUGH THURSDAY. BREEZY WEST WINDS...ESPECIALLY OVER SOUTH CENTRAL
ARIZONA...ARE EXPECTED WEDNESDAY WITH LESS WIND ON THURSDAY.
HUMIDITIES WILL REMAIN LOW BOTH DAYS...WITH MOST LOCALES LESS THAN
10 PERCENT. A WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE MOVING INTO THE REGION FROM
THE EASTERN PACIFIC WILL LEAD TO INCREASING CLOUDINESS...SUBTLE
COOLING...LOCAL BREEZINESS AND INCREASED MINIMUM HUMIDITIES FRIDAY
INTO SATURDAY. IN ADDITION...THERE WILL BE A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR
SHOWERS MAINLY ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL ARIZONA FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THE
DAY ON SATURDAY. DRIER AND WARMER CONDITIONS...ALONG WITH LESS
WIND...WILL RETURN SUNDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT BUILDS BACK IN FROM
THE WEST.

&&

.PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

AZ...NONE.

CA...NONE.

&&

$$

VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/PHOENIX

DISCUSSION...HIRSCH
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...NOLTE
AVIATION....PERCHA
FIRE WEATHER...CB









000
FXUS65 KPSR 142046
AFDPSR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PHOENIX AZ
145 PM MST MON APR 14 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
DRY WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL PERSIST THROUGH MUCH OF THE WORK WEEK
WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES WARMING INTO THE 90S OVER THE WARMER DESERTS. A
WEAK UPPER LEVEL LOW APPROACHING FROM THE EAST PACIFIC WILL SPREAD
INCREASING MOISTURE AND CLOUDS INTO THE AREA FRIDAY INTO THE
WEEKEND...LEADING TO A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL
ARIZONA AND THE POSSIBILITY FOR SLIGHTLY COOLER DAYTIME TEMPERATURES.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
POST-FRONTAL AIR MASS IS EVIDENT IN THE SURFACE OBSERVATIONS ACROSS
THE FORECAST AREA THIS AFTERNOON. IN ADDITION TO THE WIDESPREAD
BREEZY CONDITIONS...DEWPOINTS ARE LOW AS THE SINGLE DIGITS AND AS
MUCH 30 DEGREES LOWER THAN THOSE OBSERVED AT THIS TIME YESTERDAY.
LATEST TEMPERATURES ARE ALSO 2 TO AS MUCH AS 9 DEGREES COOLER THAN
YESTERDAY.

LATEST SHORT-TERM GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT WINDS
WILL CONTINUE TO SUBSIDE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT WEAKENS IN RESPONSE TO A RIDGE IN THE GREAT BASIN EDGING
EASTWARD. FOR VIEWING THE LUNAR ECLIPSE TONIGHT...MODEL CONSENSUS
INDICATES GENERALLY CLEAR SKIES...EXCEPT FOR SOME INCREASING CIRRUS
ACROSS SE CA TOWARDS MORNING.

&&

.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
BY TUESDAY...DRY NORTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL SET UP OVER THE WESTERN
CONUS WITH SUBTLY INCREASING 1000-500MB THICKNESSES EACH DAY. THIS
WILL RESULT IN A RETURN TO UPPER 80 TO LOW 90 DEGREE READINGS. SKIES
WILL BE MOSTLY CLEAR WITH SOME PASSING HIGH CLOUDS EXPECTED TUESDAY.
ANOTHER WEAK SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE THROUGH TO NORTH ACROSS THE GREAT
BASIN STATES LATE WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. THE BULK OF THE
ENERGY...COOLER AIR AND LIMITED MOISTURE REMAINS WELL TO OUR NORTH
ONLY ENHANCING DAYTIME WINDS OVER THE FORECAST AREA FOR WEDNESDAY
AND HAVING LITTLE COOLING EFFECT ON OUR TEMPERATURES.

MODEL SOLUTIONS ARE IN DECENT AGREEMENT NOW THROUGH SATURDAY
MORNING...COMPARED TO THEIR PREVIOUS PERFORMANCE OVER LATE LAST WEEK
WITH THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN. WEAK TROUGHING AND PACIFIC LOW ENERGY
WILL MOVE THROUGH THE SOUTHWEST OFF THE EASTERN PACIFIC...INTRODUCING
LOWER HEIGHTS...SLIGHT PROFILE COOLING AND ENOUGH MOISTURE TO
CONTINUE THE SLIGHT SHOWER/THUNDER CHANCES FOR LATE FRIDAY INTO
SATURDAY. THE LATEST GFS/ECMWF/GEM RUNS BRING 500MB HEIGHTS DOWN IN
TO THE 566-570DM RANGE AS THE LOW MOVES ON-SHORE ALONG WITH
INCREASING PWATS IN THE 0.60-0.75 IN RANGE PUSHING INTO SOUTHEAST CA
/SOUTH-CENTRAL AZ OVERNIGHT FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. MADE LITTLE CHANGE
TO THE EXTENDED POP GRID FORECAST...WITH SLIGHT CHANCES DOWN
THROUGHOUT PORTIONS OF SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA...INCLUDING THE PHOENIX
METRO AREA...FOR FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY. STILL NOT EXPECTING MUCH
BY WAY OF MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION AT THIS TIME. WITH THE LOWER
HEIGHTS...TEMPERATURES WILL SEE A SLIGHT COOL DOWN AND DROP BACK
TOWARDS MORE SEASONABLE READINGS IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...
SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA INCLUDING KPHX...KIWA...AND KSDL...
VERY DRY COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE WILL RESULT IN GUSTY NORTH TO
NORTHEAST WINDS AT THE TAF SITES INTO THE LATE MORNING/EARLY
AFTERNOON HOURS...WITH PEAK GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 22KT AT TIMES. WINDS
TO TAPER OFF THIS AFTERNOON...BUT FAVOR AN EASTERLY COMPONENT FOR
THE MOST PART.

FOR KPHX...ORIENTATION OF SURFACE ISOBARS/GRADIENT SUGGEST THAT
WINDS MAY BECOME LIGHT VARIABLE OR LIGHT SOUTHWEST FROM 12Z THROUGH
15Z OR SO...AND IF THIS OCCURS THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR LLWS GIVEN
THAT THE 2-3K LAYER WILL HAVE NELY WINDS TO 30KT. SHOULD WINDS
REMAIN NELY AT 10-15KT THE SHEAR POTENTIAL IS REDUCED. ATTM WILL
LEAVE WIND SHEAR OUT OF THE TAF...BUT POTENTIAL WILL BE THERE THRU
MID MORNING.

OTHERWISE...SKIES TO BE CLEAR THROUGH TONIGHT.

SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA AND SOUTHWEST ARIZONA INCLUDING KIPL AND KBLH...
DRY COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE WILL KEEP SKIES CLEAR NEXT 24 HOURS. GUSTY
NORTH TO NORTHEAST WINDS...WITH PEAK GUSTS TO AROUND 25KT...EXPECTED
THRU EARLY AFTN AT KBLH...THEN TAPERING OFF INTO THE EVENING HOURS.
LESS WIND EXPECTED AT KIPL...BUT WINDS SHOULD SHIFT TO THE NORTH OR
NORTHEAST BY 16Z OR SO...WITH SPEEDS TO AROUND 15KT. EXPECT WINDS TO
RETURN TO THE WEST AFTER SUNSET...AT SPEEDS GENLY LESS THAN 10KT.

AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDED TAFS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...
HIGH PRESSURE AND DRY WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES
ABOVE SEASONAL NORMALS...AND IN THE 90S OVER THE DESERTS...WEDNESDAY
THROUGH THURSDAY. BREEZY WEST WINDS...ESPECIALLY OVER SOUTH CENTRAL
ARIZONA...ARE EXPECTED WEDNESDAY WITH LESS WIND ON THURSDAY.
HUMIDITIES WILL REMAIN LOW BOTH DAYS...WITH MOST LOCALES LESS THAN
10 PERCENT. A WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE MOVING INTO THE REGION FROM
THE EASTERN PACIFIC WILL LEAD TO INCREASING CLOUDINESS...SUBTLE
COOLING...LOCAL BREEZINESS AND INCREASED MINIMUM HUMIDITIES FRIDAY
INTO SATURDAY. IN ADDITION...THERE WILL BE A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR
SHOWERS MAINLY ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL ARIZONA FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THE
DAY ON SATURDAY. DRIER AND WARMER CONDITIONS...ALONG WITH LESS
WIND...WILL RETURN SUNDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT BUILDS BACK IN FROM
THE WEST.

&&

.PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

AZ...NONE.

CA...NONE.

&&

$$

VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/PHOENIX

DISCUSSION...HIRSCH
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...NOLTE
AVIATION....CB
FIRE WEATHER...CB





000
FXUS65 KFGZ 141636
AFDFGZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ
936 AM MST MON APR 14 2014

.SYNOPSIS...EXPECT GUSTY NORTH WINDS TODAY WITH CLEAR SKIES. LIGHTER
WINDS AND FAIR WEATHER WILL RETURN FOR TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.
ANOTHER WEAK STORM SYSTEM WILL USHER IN A CHANCE OF SHOWERS FRIDAY
AND SATURDAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...GUSTY NORTH TO NORTHEAST WINDS CONTINUE THIS MORNING
OVER MUCH OF NORTHERN AZ...STRONGEST ALONG/SOUTH OF THE MOGOLLON RIM
WHERE A FEW GUSTS IN THE 35-40 MPH RANGE HAVE BEEN REPORTED. EXPECT
THESE WINDS TO PERSIST THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON AND THEN GRADUALLY
DROP OFF. BY TONIGHT...LIGHT WIND COUPLED WITH A DRY AND COOL AIR
MASS WILL LEAD TO OVERNIGHT LOWS SEVERAL DEGREES COLDER THAN NORMAL.

.PREV DISCUSSION...(330 AM MST)...YESTERDAYS COLD FRONT HAS MOVED
EAST OF ARIZONA. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN THE GREAT BASIN
TODAY WILL BRING BREEZY NORTH TO NORTHEAST WINDS TO THE AREA. CLEAR
SKIES TONIGHT WILL ALLOW GOOD VIEWING CONDITION FOR THE ECLIPSE.

TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...FAIR AND DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED.
MODELS SHOW A WEAK WEATHER DISTURBANCE BRUSHING THE ARIZONA/UTAH
BORDER WEDNESDAY. EXPECT THE USUAL SPRING BREEZES EACH AFTERNOON
WITH THE FASTEST SPEEDS WEDNESDAY.

FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW ANOTHER WEAK LOW
MEANDERING ACROSS ARIZONA. ONLY EXPECTING LIGHT SHOWER ACTIVITY FROM
THIS SYSTEM AND WILL CONTINUE THE SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS.

&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 18Z PACKAGE...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR
THE NEXT 24 HOURS. UNTIL 01Z...WINDS NE5-15G20 KTS WITH LOCALLY
STRONGER WINDS ALONG AND SOUTHWEST OF THE MOGOLLON RIM WHERE 15-20
KTS AND GUSTS UP TO 30 KTS CAN BE EXPECTED. AFTER 01Z...WINDS
STEADILY DECREASING...BECOMING LIGHT AND VARIABLE OVERNIGHT.
AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDMENTS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...A DRY NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL DEVELOP ACROSS
NORTHERN ARIZONA TODAY WHILE SURFACE WINDS WILL BE NORTH TO
NORTHEAST. WINDS WILL BE STRONGEST ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE MOGOLLON
RIM TODAY. EXPECT MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY OF 8 TO 15 PERCENT
TODAY. WINDS WILL DECREASE WITH WARMER DAYTIME TEMPERATURES ON
TUESDAY.

WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...A DRY COLD FRONT WILL PUSH ACROSS THE
STATE ON WEDNESDAY BRINGING GUSTY SOUTHWEST TO WEST WINDS. A WEAK
RIDGE WILL DEVELOP ON THURSDAY AND WINDS WILL DIMINISH. ON
FRIDAY...A WEAK PACIFIC LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL APPROACH THE AREA
AND BRING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS.
.FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC.........JJ/DL
AVIATION.......DJO
FIRE WEATHER...DB

FOR NORTHERN ARIZONA WEATHER INFORMATION VISIT WEATHER.GOV/FLAGSTAFF





000
FXUS65 KTWC 141556
AFDTWC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ
900 AM MST MON APR 14 2014

.SYNOPSIS...EXPECT GUSTY EAST WINDS AT TIMES LATE TONIGHT INTO
TUESDAY MORNING...WITH BREEZY WEST WINDS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.
OTHERWISE DRY CONDITIONS WITH ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES MOST OF THE
WEEK. A PACIFIC LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM COULD BRING A FEW SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS LATE FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...DRY AND RELATIVELY COOLER NORTHWESTERLY FLOW EARLY
TODAY WITH TEMPERATURES NEAR SEASONAL AVERAGES. GREAT VIEWING FOR
THE TOTAL ECLIPSE TONIGHT.

SHORT TERM MAIN FOCUS WILL BE THE EASTERLY GRADIENT DEVELOPING
TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING AS A WEAK BOUNDARY PUSHES SOUTH OF THE
AREA AND A SURFACE HIGH BUILDS DOWN THE FRONT RANGE. BREEZY TO WINDY
IN SOME SPOTS TUESDAY MORNING WITH MORNING LOWS GREATLY IMPACTED IN
LOCATIONS THAT STAY MIXED. THIS TREND BALANCED (AND COMPLICATED)
SOMEWHAT BY SOME CAA ASSOCIATED IN THE RETURN FLOW FROM NEW MEXICO.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS WILL REMAIN
QUASI-STATIONARY ESSENTIALLY ADJACENT OF JUST OFF THE WEST COAST
THRU WED. THIS PATTERN WILL PROVIDE CLEAR SKIES THRU TONIGHT...THEN
SOME CIRRIFORM CLOUDINESS WILL MOVE ACROSS SE AZ FOR MOSTLY CLEAR
SKIES TUE-WED. GUSTY ELY/SELY WINDS WILL PREVAIL MAINLY TUE
MORNING...AND BREEZY WLY WINDS WILL OCCUR WED AFTERNOON AND WED
EVENING AS A DISTURBANCE PASSES NORTH OF THE AREA.

14/00Z GFS/ECMWF WERE SIMILAR WITH DEVELOPING A WEAK UPPER LEVEL LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM NEAR THE SRN CALIFORNIA COAST THUR. DRY CONDITIONS
WILL CONTINUE THUR AND THUR NIGHT UNDER SHORTWAVE RIDGING AHEAD OF
THIS LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM. THE UPPER LOW WILL THEN DRAW MOISTURE NWD
ACROSS THE AREA FRI. EXPECT PRECIP WATER VALUES TO GENERALLY RANGE
FROM ONE HALF OF AN INCH TO THREE QUARTERS OF AN INCH FRI-SAT. GFS/
ECMWF EXHIBITED SOMEWHAT DIFFERENT UPPER LEVEL SOLUTIONS NEXT SAT...
WITH THE ECMWF DEPICTING A MORE AMPLIFIED TROUGH OVER THE SWRN CONUS
VERSUS THE GFS.

AT ANY RATE...BASED ON THESE SOLUTIONS AND PER COORD WITH
NEIGHBORING WFO/S...MADE ONLY VERY MINOR MODIFICATIONS TO THE
INHERITED GRIDDED DATA POP FIELDS. THUS...THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE
OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY NEAR THE MOUNTAINS FRI. CHANCE-
CATEGORY POPS HAVE BEEN MAINTAINED MOSTLY NEAR THE HIGHER TERRAIN
EAST OF TUCSON FRI NIGHT-SAT...WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ELSEWHERE. AT THIS TIME...MEASURABLE PRECIP AMOUNTS
SHOULD BE FAIRLY LOW. THE MAIN CONCERN WILL BE THE POTENTIAL FOR
MOSTLY DRY MICROBURSTS ESPECIALLY FRI AFTERNOON AND AGAIN SAT.
THEREAFTER...DRY CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST TO RETURN SAT NIGHT AND SUN
AS THE BULK OF DEEPER MOISTURE MOVES WELL NORTH AND EAST OF SE AZ.

&&

.AVIATION...HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT NEAR THE WEST COAST WILL PROVIDE
CLEAR SKIES INTO EARLY TUESDAY MORNING...WITH SCT-BKN CIRRUS LEVEL
CLOUD SPREADING IN FROM THE WEST AFTER 15/06Z SURFACE WIND LATER
THIS MORNING AND THIS AFTERNOON NLY/NWLY 10-15 KTS WITH GUSTS TO
NEAR 20 KTS. SURFACE WIND LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY TUESDAY MORNING
ELY/SELY 10-18 KTS WITH GUSTS TO 25 KTS. STRONGER ELY/SELY WIND
SPEEDS WILL OCCUR LATER TUESDAY MORNING THEN DIMINISH TUESDAY
AFTERNOON. AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR TAF AMENDMENTS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...GUSTY EAST WINDS LATE TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY
MORNING...THEN BREEZY WEST WINDS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. OTHERWISE
EXPECT DRY CONDITIONS WITH ABOVE AVERAGE DAYTIME TEMPERATURES
THROUGH THURSDAY. THEREAFTER...THERE IS A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS LATE FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY. ANY THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE
CAPABLE OF PRODUCING GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS.

&&

.TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...YOUTUBE...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/TUCSON

MEYER/MEADOWS/FRANCIS







000
FXUS65 KPSR 141512
AFDPSR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PHOENIX AZ
810 AM MST MON APR 14 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM PASSING BY TO OUR NORTHEAST TODAY WILL
CONTINUE BREEZY CONDITIONS AND USHER IN SLIGHTLY COOLER AIR TO THE
REGION. HOWEVER...HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN ABOVE SEASONAL
NORMALS UNDER MOSTLY SUNNY OR SUNNY SKIES. DRY WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT
WILL PERSIST THROUGH MUCH OF THE WORK WEEK WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES
WILL WARM INTO THE 90S OVER THE WARMER DESERTS. A WEAK UPPER LEVEL
LOW APPROACHING FROM THE EAST PACIFIC WILL SPREAD INCREASING CLOUDS
INTO THE AREA FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND...LEADING TO A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
SHOWERS ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL ARIZONA AND THE POSSIBILITY FOR SLIGHTLY
COOLER DAYTIME TEMPERATURES.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
WELL-DEFINED FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS CLEARLY DELINEATED IN THE RTMA
DEWPOINT AND WILL CONTINUE DROPPING SOUTHWARD INTO NORTHERN SONORA
TODAY. IN ITS WAKE...BREEZY NORTHERLY WINDS WILL USHER IN A DRIER
AND SLIGHTLY COOLER AIR MASS ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. ALTHOUGH
WINDS AND RHS WILL GENERALLY FALL SHORT OF CRITICAL FIRE WX
THRESHOLDS...FIRE DANGER REMAINS ELEVATED ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA.
ONLY ADJUSTMENTS TO THE FORECAST THIS MORNING ARE TO FINE-TUNE THE
SHORT-TERM TEMPERATURES AND DEWPOINTS.

&&

.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
SHORTWAVE TROUGHING REMAINS OVER THE FOUR CORNERS THIS MORNING AS A
SURFACE COLD FRONT WAS SINKING SOUTHWARD THROUGH ARIZONA. MORNING
MSLP ANALYSIS AND DEWPOINT OBSERVATIONS PLOT THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY
ACROSS SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA AND SOUTH OF THE PHX METRO ALREADY WITH
BREEZY NORTHERLY WINDS AND SINGLE DIGIT DEWPOINTS IN IT`S WAKE. WINDS
OVERNIGHT HAVE KEPT MANY DESERT LOCATIONS MIXED AND RUNNING ON THE
WARM SIDE THIS MORNING...SOME STATIONS NEARLY 10 DEGREES WARMER THAN
THIS TIME SUNDAY AM. SUBTLE COOLING BEHIND THE FRONT MAY SHAVE OFF A
DEGREE OR TWO OFF THE HIGH TEMPERATURES COMPARED TO THE TEMPERATURES
FROM OVER THE WEEKEND WHILE FALLING IN LINE WITH EARLY APRIL NORMALS.
UNDER CLEAR/SUNNY SKIES TEMPERATURES SHOULD TOP OFF IN THE LOW TO MID
80S ACROSS THE LOWER DESERT ELEVATIONS.

WITH DRY AIR FILTERING INTO THE REGION...SOME LOCATIONS WILL
EXPERIENCE ONLY FAIR TO MODEST HUMIDITY RECOVERIES. BREEZY TO WINDY
CONDITIONS...ESPECIALLY ALONG AREA RIDGETOPS...WILL PERSIST INTO THE
DAY AND DAYTIME HUMIDITIES ARE EXPECTED TO DRY BELOW 10 PERCENT.
ISOLATED POCKETS OF CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS MAY DEVELOP FOR
AN HOUR TO TWO TODAY AS A RESULT. POTENTIAL FOR THESE HAVE BEEN
HIGHLIGHTED AND HEADLINED IN THE MORNING FIRE WEATHER FORECAST.

BY TUESDAY...DRY NORTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL SET UP OVER THE WESTERN
CONUS WITH SUBTLY INCREASING 1000-500MB THICKNESSES EACH DAY. THIS
WILL RESULT IN A RETURN TO UPPER 80 TO LOW 90 DEGREE READINGS. SKIES
WILL BE MOSTLY CLEAR WITH SOME PASSING HIGH CLOUDS EXPECTED TUESDAY.
ANOTHER WEAK SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE THROUGH TO NORTH ACROSS THE GREAT
BASIN STATES LATE WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. THE BULK OF THE
ENERGY...COOLER AIR AND LIMITED MOISTURE REMAINS WELL TO OUR
NORTH ONLY ENHANCING DAYTIME WINDS OVER THE FORECAST AREA FOR
WEDNESDAY AND HAVING LITTLE COOLING EFFECT ON OUR TEMPERATURES.

MODEL SOLUTIONS ARE IN DECENT AGREEMENT NOW THROUGH SATURDAY
MORNING...COMPARED TO THEIR PREVIOUS PERFORMANCE OVER LATE LAST WEEK
WITH THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN. WEAK TROUGHING AND PACIFIC LOW ENERGY
WILL MOVE THROUGH THE SOUTHWEST OFF THE EASTERN PACIFIC...INTRODUCING
LOWER HEIGHTS...SLIGHT PROFILE COOLING AND ENOUGH MOISTURE TO
CONTINUE THE SLIGHT SHOWER/THUNDER CHANCES FOR LATE FRIDAY INTO
SATURDAY. THE LATEST GFS/ECMWF/GEM RUNS BRING 500MB HEIGHTS DOWN IN
TO THE 566-570DM RANGE AS THE LOW MOVES ON-SHORE ALONG WITH
INCREASING PWATS IN THE 0.60-0.75 IN RANGE PUSHING INTO SOUTHEAST CA
/SOUTH-CENTRAL AZ OVERNIGHT FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. MADE LITTLE CHANGE
TO THE EXTENDED POP GRID FORECAST...WITH SLIGHT CHANCES DOWN
THROUGHOUT PORTIONS OF SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA...INCLUDING THE PHOENIX
METRO AREA...FOR FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY. STILL NOT EXPECTING MUCH
BY WAY OF MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION AT THIS TIME. WITH THE LOWER
HEIGHTS...TEMPERATURES WILL SEE A SLIGHT COOL DOWN AND DROP BACK
TOWARDS MORE SEASONABLE READINGS IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...
SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA INCLUDING KPHX...KIWA...AND KSDL...
VERY DRY COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE WILL RESULT IN GUSTY NORTH TO
NORTHEAST WINDS AT THE TAF SITES INTO THE LATE MORNING/EARLY
AFTERNOON HOURS...WITH PEAK GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 22KT AT TIMES. WINDS
TO TAPER OFF THIS AFTERNOON...BUT FAVOR AN EASTERLY COMPONENT FOR
THE MOST PART.

FOR KPHX...ORIENTATION OF SURFACE ISOBARS/GRADIENT SUGGEST THAT
WINDS MAY BECOME LIGHT VARIABLE OR LIGHT SOUTHWEST FROM 12Z THROUGH
15Z OR SO...AND IF THIS OCCURS THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR LLWS GIVEN
THAT THE 2-3K LAYER WILL HAVE NELY WINDS TO 30KT. SHOULD WINDS
REMAIN NELY AT 10-15KT THE SHEAR POTENTIAL IS REDUCED. ATTM WILL
LEAVE WIND SHEAR OUT OF THE TAF...BUT POTENTIAL WILL BE THERE THRU
MID MORNING.

OTHERWISE...SKIES TO BE CLEAR THROUGH TONIGHT.

SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA AND SOUTHWEST ARIZONA INCLUDING KIPL AND KBLH...
DRY COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE WILL KEEP SKIES CLEAR NEXT 24 HOURS. GUSTY
NORTH TO NORTHEAST WINDS...WITH PEAK GUSTS TO AROUND 25KT...EXPECTED
THRU EARLY AFTN AT KBLH...THEN TAPERING OFF INTO THE EVENING HOURS.
LESS WIND EXPECTED AT KIPL...BUT WINDS SHOULD SHIFT TO THE NORTH OR
NORTHEAST BY 16Z OR SO...WITH SPEEDS TO AROUND 15KT. EXPECT WINDS TO
RETURN TO THE WEST AFTER SUNSET...AT SPEEDS GENLY LESS THAN 10KT.

AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDED TAFS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...
HIGH PRESSURE AND DRY WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES
ABOVE SEASONAL NORMALS...AND IN THE 90S OVER THE DESERTS...WEDNESDAY
THROUGH THURSDAY. BREEZY WEST WINDS...ESPECIALLY OVER SOUTH CENTRAL
ARIZONA...ARE EXPECTED WEDNESDAY WITH LESS WIND ON THURSDAY.
HUMIDITIES WILL REMAIN LOW BOTH DAYS...WITH MOST LOCALES LESS THAN
10 PERCENT. A WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE MOVING INTO THE REGION FROM
THE EASTERN PACIFIC WILL LEAD TO INCREASING CLOUDINESS...SUBTLE
COOLING...LOCAL BREEZINESS AND INCREASED MINIMUM HUMIDITIES FRIDAY
INTO SATURDAY. IN ADDITION...THERE WILL BE A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR
SHOWERS MAINLY ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL ARIZONA FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THE
DAY ON SATURDAY. DRIER AND WARMER CONDITIONS...ALONG WITH LESS
WIND...WILL RETURN SUNDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT BUILDS BACK IN FROM
THE WEST.

&&

.PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

AZ...NONE.

CA...NONE.

&&

$$

VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/PHOENIX

DISCUSSION...HIRSCH
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...NOLTE
AVIATION....CB
FIRE WEATHER...CB











000
FXUS65 KPSR 141141 AAA
AFDPSR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PHOENIX AZ
440 AM MST MON APR 14 2014

.UPDATE...UPDATED AVIATION AND FIRE WEATHER DISCUSSIONS.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM PASSING BY TO OUR NORTHEAST TODAY WILL
CONTINUE BREEZY CONDITIONS AND USHER IN SLIGHTLY COOLER AIR TO THE
REGION. HOWEVER...HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN ABOVE SEASONAL
NORMALS UNDER MOSTLY SUNNY OR SUNNY SKIES. DRY WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT
WILL PERSIST THROUGH MUCH OF THE WORK WEEK WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES
WILL WARM INTO THE 90S OVER THE WARMER DESERTS. A WEAK UPPER LEVEL
LOW APPROACHING FROM THE EAST PACIFIC WILL SPREAD INCREASING CLOUDS
INTO THE AREA FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND...LEADING TO A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
SHOWERS ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL ARIZONA AND THE POSSIBILITY FOR SLIGHTLY
COOLER DAYTIME TEMPERATURES.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
SHORTWAVE TROUGHING REMAINS OVER THE FOUR CORNERS THIS MORNING AS A
SURFACE COLD FRONT WAS SINKING SOUTHWARD THROUGH ARIZONA. MORNING
MSLP ANALYSIS AND DEWPOINT OBSERVATIONS PLOT THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY
ACROSS SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA AND SOUTH OF THE PHX METRO ALREADY WITH
BREEZY NORTHERLY WINDS AND SINGLE DIGIT DEWPOINTS IN IT`S WAKE. WINDS
OVERNIGHT HAVE KEPT MANY DESERT LOCATIONS MIXED AND RUNNING ON THE
WARM SIDE THIS MORNING...SOME STATIONS NEARLY 10 DEGREES WARMER THAN
THIS TIME SUNDAY AM. SUBTLE COOLING BEHIND THE FRONT MAY SHAVE OFF A
DEGREE OR TWO OFF THE HIGH TEMPERATURES COMPARED TO THE TEMPERATURES
FROM OVER THE WEEKEND WHILE FALLING IN LINE WITH EARLY APRIL NORMALS.
UNDER CLEAR/SUNNY SKIES TEMPERATURES SHOULD TOP OFF IN THE LOW TO MID
80S ACROSS THE LOWER DESERT ELEVATIONS.

WITH DRY AIR FILTERING INTO THE REGION OVERNIGHT...SOME LOCATIONS
WILL EXPERIENCE ONLY FAIR TO MODEST HUMIDITY RECOVERIES. BREEZY TO
WINDY CONDITIONS...ESPECIALLY ALONG AREA RIDGETOPS...WILL PERSIST
INTO THE DAY AND DAYTIME HUMIDITIES ARE EXPECTED TO DRY BELOW 10
PERCENT. ISOLATED POCKETS OF CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS MAY
DEVELOP FOR AN HOUR TO TWO TODAY AS A RESULT. POTENTIAL FOR THESE
HAVE BEEN HIGHLIGHTED AND HEADLINED IN THE MORNING FIRE WEATHER
FORECAST.

BY TUESDAY...DRY NORTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL SET UP OVER THE WESTERN
CONUS WITH SUBTLY INCREASING 1000-500MB THICKNESSES EACH DAY. THIS
WILL RESULT IN A RETURN TO UPPER 80 TO LOW 90 DEGREE READINGS. SKIES
WILL BE MOSTLY CLEAR WITH SOME PASSING HIGH CLOUDS EXPECTED TUESDAY.
ANOTHER WEAK SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE THROUGH TO NORTH ACROSS THE GREAT
BASIN STATES LATE WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. THE BULK OF THE
ENERGY...COOLER AIR AND LIMITED MOISTURE REMAINS WELL TO OUR
NORTH ONLY ENHANCING DAYTIME WINDS OVER THE FORECAST AREA FOR
WEDNESDAY AND HAVING LITTLE COOLING EFFECT ON OUR TEMPERATURES.

MODEL SOLUTIONS ARE IN DECENT AGREEMENT NOW THROUGH SATURDAY
MORNING...COMPARED TO THEIR PREVIOUS PERFORMANCE OVER LATE LAST WEEK
WITH THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN. WEAK TROUGHING AND PACIFIC LOW ENERGY
WILL MOVE THROUGH THE SOUTHWEST OFF THE EASTERN PACIFIC...INTRODUCING
LOWER HEIGHTS...SLIGHT PROFILE COOLING AND ENOUGH MOISTURE TO
CONTINUE THE SLIGHT SHOWER/THUNDER CHANCES FOR LATE FRIDAY INTO
SATURDAY. THE LATEST GFS/ECMWF/GEM RUNS BRING 500MB HEIGHTS DOWN IN
TO THE 566-570DM RANGE AS THE LOW MOVES ON-SHORE ALONG WITH
INCREASING PWATS IN THE 0.60-0.75 IN RANGE PUSHING INTO SOUTHEAST CA
/SOUTH-CENTRAL AZ OVERNIGHT FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. MADE LITTLE CHANGE
TO THE EXTENDED POP GRID FORECAST...WITH SLIGHT CHANCES DOWN
THROUGHOUT PORTIONS OF SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA...INCLUDING THE PHOENIX
METRO AREA...FOR FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY. STILL NOT EXPECTING MUCH
BY WAY OF MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION AT THIS TIME. WITH THE LOWER
HEIGHTS...TEMPERATURES WILL SEE A SLIGHT COOL DOWN AND DROP BACK
TOWARDS MORE SEASONABLE READINGS IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...
SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA INCLUDING KPHX...KIWA...AND KSDL...
VERY DRY COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE WILL RESULT IN GUSTY NORTH TO
NORTHEAST WINDS AT THE TAF SITES INTO THE LATE MORNING/EARLY
AFTERNOON HOURS...WITH PEAK GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 22KT AT TIMES. WINDS
TO TAPER OFF THIS AFTERNOON...BUT FAVOR AN EASTERLY COMPONENT FOR
THE MOST PART.

FOR KPHX...ORIENTATION OF SURFACE ISOBARS/GRADIENT SUGGEST THAT
WINDS MAY BECOME LIGHT VARIABLE OR LIGHT SOUTHWEST FROM 12Z THROUGH
15Z OR SO...AND IF THIS OCCURS THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR LLWS GIVEN
THAT THE 2-3K LAYER WILL HAVE NELY WINDS TO 30KT. SHOULD WINDS
REMAIN NELY AT 10-15KT THE SHEAR POTENTIAL IS REDUCED. ATTM WILL
LEAVE WIND SHEAR OUT OF THE TAF...BUT POTENTIAL WILL BE THERE THRU
MID MORNING.

OTHERWISE...SKIES TO BE CLEAR THROUGH TONIGHT.

SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA AND SOUTHWEST ARIZONA INCLUDING KIPL AND KBLH...
DRY COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE WILL KEEP SKIES CLEAR NEXT 24 HOURS. GUSTY
NORTH TO NORTHEAST WINDS...WITH PEAK GUSTS TO AROUND 25KT...EXPECTED
THRU EARLY AFTN AT KBLH...THEN TAPERING OFF INTO THE EVENING HOURS.
LESS WIND EXPECTED AT KIPL...BUT WINDS SHOULD SHIFT TO THE NORTH OR
NORTHEAST BY 16Z OR SO...WITH SPEEDS TO AROUND 15KT. EXPECT WINDS TO
RETURN TO THE WEST AFTER SUNSET...AT SPEEDS GENLY LESS THAN 10KT.

AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDED TAFS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...
HIGH PRESSURE AND DRY WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES
ABOVE SEASONAL NORMALS...AND IN THE 90S OVER THE DESERTS...WEDNESDAY
THROUGH THURSDAY. BREEZY WEST WINDS...ESPECIALLY OVER SOUTH CENTRAL
ARIZONA...ARE EXPECTED WEDNESDAY WITH LESS WIND ON THURSDAY.
HUMIDITIES WILL REMAIN LOW BOTH DAYS...WITH MOST LOCALES LESS THAN
10 PERCENT. A WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE MOVING INTO THE REGION FROM
THE EASTERN PACIFIC WILL LEAD TO INCREASING CLOUDINESS...SUBTLE
COOLING...LOCAL BREEZINESS AND INCREASED MINIMUM HUMIDITIES FRIDAY
INTO SATURDAY. IN ADDITION...THERE WILL BE A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR
SHOWERS MAINLY ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL ARIZONA FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THE
DAY ON SATURDAY. DRIER AND WARMER CONDITIONS...ALONG WITH LESS
WIND...WILL RETURN SUNDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT BUILDS BACK IN FROM
THE WEST.

&&

.PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

AZ...NONE.

CA...NONE.

&&

$$

VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/PHOENIX

DISCUSSION...NOLTE
AVIATION....CB
FIRE WEATHER...CB








000
FXUS65 KPSR 141141 AAA
AFDPSR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PHOENIX AZ
440 AM MST MON APR 14 2014

.UPDATE...UPDATED AVIATION AND FIRE WEATHER DISCUSSIONS.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM PASSING BY TO OUR NORTHEAST TODAY WILL
CONTINUE BREEZY CONDITIONS AND USHER IN SLIGHTLY COOLER AIR TO THE
REGION. HOWEVER...HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN ABOVE SEASONAL
NORMALS UNDER MOSTLY SUNNY OR SUNNY SKIES. DRY WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT
WILL PERSIST THROUGH MUCH OF THE WORK WEEK WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES
WILL WARM INTO THE 90S OVER THE WARMER DESERTS. A WEAK UPPER LEVEL
LOW APPROACHING FROM THE EAST PACIFIC WILL SPREAD INCREASING CLOUDS
INTO THE AREA FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND...LEADING TO A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
SHOWERS ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL ARIZONA AND THE POSSIBILITY FOR SLIGHTLY
COOLER DAYTIME TEMPERATURES.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
SHORTWAVE TROUGHING REMAINS OVER THE FOUR CORNERS THIS MORNING AS A
SURFACE COLD FRONT WAS SINKING SOUTHWARD THROUGH ARIZONA. MORNING
MSLP ANALYSIS AND DEWPOINT OBSERVATIONS PLOT THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY
ACROSS SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA AND SOUTH OF THE PHX METRO ALREADY WITH
BREEZY NORTHERLY WINDS AND SINGLE DIGIT DEWPOINTS IN IT`S WAKE. WINDS
OVERNIGHT HAVE KEPT MANY DESERT LOCATIONS MIXED AND RUNNING ON THE
WARM SIDE THIS MORNING...SOME STATIONS NEARLY 10 DEGREES WARMER THAN
THIS TIME SUNDAY AM. SUBTLE COOLING BEHIND THE FRONT MAY SHAVE OFF A
DEGREE OR TWO OFF THE HIGH TEMPERATURES COMPARED TO THE TEMPERATURES
FROM OVER THE WEEKEND WHILE FALLING IN LINE WITH EARLY APRIL NORMALS.
UNDER CLEAR/SUNNY SKIES TEMPERATURES SHOULD TOP OFF IN THE LOW TO MID
80S ACROSS THE LOWER DESERT ELEVATIONS.

WITH DRY AIR FILTERING INTO THE REGION OVERNIGHT...SOME LOCATIONS
WILL EXPERIENCE ONLY FAIR TO MODEST HUMIDITY RECOVERIES. BREEZY TO
WINDY CONDITIONS...ESPECIALLY ALONG AREA RIDGETOPS...WILL PERSIST
INTO THE DAY AND DAYTIME HUMIDITIES ARE EXPECTED TO DRY BELOW 10
PERCENT. ISOLATED POCKETS OF CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS MAY
DEVELOP FOR AN HOUR TO TWO TODAY AS A RESULT. POTENTIAL FOR THESE
HAVE BEEN HIGHLIGHTED AND HEADLINED IN THE MORNING FIRE WEATHER
FORECAST.

BY TUESDAY...DRY NORTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL SET UP OVER THE WESTERN
CONUS WITH SUBTLY INCREASING 1000-500MB THICKNESSES EACH DAY. THIS
WILL RESULT IN A RETURN TO UPPER 80 TO LOW 90 DEGREE READINGS. SKIES
WILL BE MOSTLY CLEAR WITH SOME PASSING HIGH CLOUDS EXPECTED TUESDAY.
ANOTHER WEAK SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE THROUGH TO NORTH ACROSS THE GREAT
BASIN STATES LATE WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. THE BULK OF THE
ENERGY...COOLER AIR AND LIMITED MOISTURE REMAINS WELL TO OUR
NORTH ONLY ENHANCING DAYTIME WINDS OVER THE FORECAST AREA FOR
WEDNESDAY AND HAVING LITTLE COOLING EFFECT ON OUR TEMPERATURES.

MODEL SOLUTIONS ARE IN DECENT AGREEMENT NOW THROUGH SATURDAY
MORNING...COMPARED TO THEIR PREVIOUS PERFORMANCE OVER LATE LAST WEEK
WITH THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN. WEAK TROUGHING AND PACIFIC LOW ENERGY
WILL MOVE THROUGH THE SOUTHWEST OFF THE EASTERN PACIFIC...INTRODUCING
LOWER HEIGHTS...SLIGHT PROFILE COOLING AND ENOUGH MOISTURE TO
CONTINUE THE SLIGHT SHOWER/THUNDER CHANCES FOR LATE FRIDAY INTO
SATURDAY. THE LATEST GFS/ECMWF/GEM RUNS BRING 500MB HEIGHTS DOWN IN
TO THE 566-570DM RANGE AS THE LOW MOVES ON-SHORE ALONG WITH
INCREASING PWATS IN THE 0.60-0.75 IN RANGE PUSHING INTO SOUTHEAST CA
/SOUTH-CENTRAL AZ OVERNIGHT FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. MADE LITTLE CHANGE
TO THE EXTENDED POP GRID FORECAST...WITH SLIGHT CHANCES DOWN
THROUGHOUT PORTIONS OF SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA...INCLUDING THE PHOENIX
METRO AREA...FOR FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY. STILL NOT EXPECTING MUCH
BY WAY OF MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION AT THIS TIME. WITH THE LOWER
HEIGHTS...TEMPERATURES WILL SEE A SLIGHT COOL DOWN AND DROP BACK
TOWARDS MORE SEASONABLE READINGS IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...
SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA INCLUDING KPHX...KIWA...AND KSDL...
VERY DRY COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE WILL RESULT IN GUSTY NORTH TO
NORTHEAST WINDS AT THE TAF SITES INTO THE LATE MORNING/EARLY
AFTERNOON HOURS...WITH PEAK GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 22KT AT TIMES. WINDS
TO TAPER OFF THIS AFTERNOON...BUT FAVOR AN EASTERLY COMPONENT FOR
THE MOST PART.

FOR KPHX...ORIENTATION OF SURFACE ISOBARS/GRADIENT SUGGEST THAT
WINDS MAY BECOME LIGHT VARIABLE OR LIGHT SOUTHWEST FROM 12Z THROUGH
15Z OR SO...AND IF THIS OCCURS THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR LLWS GIVEN
THAT THE 2-3K LAYER WILL HAVE NELY WINDS TO 30KT. SHOULD WINDS
REMAIN NELY AT 10-15KT THE SHEAR POTENTIAL IS REDUCED. ATTM WILL
LEAVE WIND SHEAR OUT OF THE TAF...BUT POTENTIAL WILL BE THERE THRU
MID MORNING.

OTHERWISE...SKIES TO BE CLEAR THROUGH TONIGHT.

SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA AND SOUTHWEST ARIZONA INCLUDING KIPL AND KBLH...
DRY COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE WILL KEEP SKIES CLEAR NEXT 24 HOURS. GUSTY
NORTH TO NORTHEAST WINDS...WITH PEAK GUSTS TO AROUND 25KT...EXPECTED
THRU EARLY AFTN AT KBLH...THEN TAPERING OFF INTO THE EVENING HOURS.
LESS WIND EXPECTED AT KIPL...BUT WINDS SHOULD SHIFT TO THE NORTH OR
NORTHEAST BY 16Z OR SO...WITH SPEEDS TO AROUND 15KT. EXPECT WINDS TO
RETURN TO THE WEST AFTER SUNSET...AT SPEEDS GENLY LESS THAN 10KT.

AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDED TAFS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...
HIGH PRESSURE AND DRY WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES
ABOVE SEASONAL NORMALS...AND IN THE 90S OVER THE DESERTS...WEDNESDAY
THROUGH THURSDAY. BREEZY WEST WINDS...ESPECIALLY OVER SOUTH CENTRAL
ARIZONA...ARE EXPECTED WEDNESDAY WITH LESS WIND ON THURSDAY.
HUMIDITIES WILL REMAIN LOW BOTH DAYS...WITH MOST LOCALES LESS THAN
10 PERCENT. A WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE MOVING INTO THE REGION FROM
THE EASTERN PACIFIC WILL LEAD TO INCREASING CLOUDINESS...SUBTLE
COOLING...LOCAL BREEZINESS AND INCREASED MINIMUM HUMIDITIES FRIDAY
INTO SATURDAY. IN ADDITION...THERE WILL BE A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR
SHOWERS MAINLY ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL ARIZONA FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THE
DAY ON SATURDAY. DRIER AND WARMER CONDITIONS...ALONG WITH LESS
WIND...WILL RETURN SUNDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT BUILDS BACK IN FROM
THE WEST.

&&

.PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

AZ...NONE.

CA...NONE.

&&

$$

VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/PHOENIX

DISCUSSION...NOLTE
AVIATION....CB
FIRE WEATHER...CB









000
FXUS65 KTWC 141113
AFDTWC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ
410 AM MST MON APR 14 2014

.SYNOPSIS...DRY CONDITIONS WITH ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES WILL
PREVAIL THROUGH THURSDAY. EXPECT GUSTY EAST WINDS MAINLY TUESDAY
MORNING...AND BREEZY WEST WINDS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. A PACIFIC LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL THEN BRING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS LATE FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS WILL REMAIN QUASI-STATIONARY
ESSENTIALLY ADJACENT OF JUST OFF THE WEST COAST THRU WED. THIS
PATTERN WILL PROVIDE CLEAR SKIES THRU TONIGHT...THEN SOME CIRRIFORM
CLOUDINESS WILL MOVE ACROSS SE AZ FOR MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES TUE-WED.
GUSTY ELY/SELY WINDS WILL PREVAIL MAINLY TUE MORNING...AND BREEZY
WLY WINDS WILL OCCUR WED AFTERNOON AND WED EVENING AS A DISTURBANCE
PASSES NORTH OF THE AREA.

14/00Z GFS/ECMWF WERE SIMILAR WITH DEVELOPING A WEAK UPPER LEVEL LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM NEAR THE SRN CALIFORNIA COAST THUR. DRY CONDITIONS
WILL CONTINUE THUR AND THUR NIGHT UNDER SHORTWAVE RIDGING AHEAD OF
THIS LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM. THE UPPER LOW WILL THEN DRAW MOISTURE NWD
ACROSS THE AREA FRI. EXPECT PRECIP WATER VALUES TO GENERALLY RANGE
FROM ONE HALF OF AN INCH TO THREE QUARTERS OF AN INCH FRI-SAT. GFS/
ECMWF EXHIBITED SOMEWHAT DIFFERENT UPPER LEVEL SOLUTIONS NEXT SAT...
WITH THE ECMWF DEPICTING A MORE AMPLIFIED TROUGH OVER THE SWRN CONUS
VERSUS THE GFS.

AT ANY RATE...BASED ON THESE SOLUTIONS AND PER COORD WITH
NEIGHBORING WFO/S...MADE ONLY VERY MINOR MODIFICATIONS TO THE
INHERITED GRIDDED DATA POP FIELDS. THUS...THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE
OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY NEAR THE MOUNTAINS FRI. CHANCE-
CATEGORY POPS HAVE BEEN MAINTAINED MOSTLY NEAR THE HIGHER TERRAIN
EAST OF TUCSON FRI NIGHT-SAT...WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ELSEWHERE. AT THIS TIME...MEASURABLE PRECIP AMOUNTS
SHOULD BE FAIRLY LOW. THE MAIN CONCERN WILL BE THE POTENTIAL FOR
MOSTLY DRY MICROBURSTS ESPECIALLY FRI AFTERNOON AND AGAIN SAT.
THEREAFTER...DRY CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST TO RETURN SAT NIGHT AND SUN
AS THE BULK OF DEEPER MOISTURE MOVES WELL NORTH AND EAST OF SE AZ.

HIGH TEMPS THIS AFTERNOON WILL BE NEARLY IDENTICAL TO TEMPS ACHIEVED
SUN...PLUS OR MINUS A COUPLE OF DEGS. DAYTIME TEMPS TUE WILL BE
ABOUT 5 DEGS F OR SO WARMER TUE VERSUS TODAY...THEN EXPECT NO
SIGNIFICANT DAILY TEMP CHANGES WED-THUR. COOLER DAYTIME TEMPS WILL
OCCUR FRI...THEN A FEW DEGS OF WARMING WILL PREVAIL SUN.

&&

.AVIATION...HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT NEAR THE WEST COAST WILL PROVIDE
CLEAR SKIES INTO EARLY TUESDAY MORNING. SURFACE WIND LATER THIS
MORNING AND THIS AFTERNOON NLY/NWLY 10-15 KTS WITH GUSTS TO NEAR 20
KTS. SURFACE WIND LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY TUESDAY MORNING ELY/SELY
10-15 KTS WITH GUSTS TO 20 KTS. STRONGER ELY/SELY WIND SPEEDS WILL
OCCUR LATER TUESDAY MORNING THEN DIMINISH TUESDAY AFTERNOON.
AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR TAF AMENDMENTS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...EXPECT DRY CONDITIONS WITH ABOVE NORMAL DAYTIME
TEMPERATURES THROUGH THURSDAY. GUSTY EAST TO SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL
OCCUR MAINLY TUESDAY MORNING...THEN BREEZY WEST WINDS WILL PREVAIL
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND WEDNESDAY EVENING. SOMEWHAT LESS WIND SHOULD
HAPPEN THURSDAY...ALTHOUGH OCCASIONAL GUSTS WILL OCCUR THURSDAY
AFTERNOON DUE TO STRONG DAYTIME HEATING. THEREAFTER...THERE IS A
CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LATE FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY. ANY
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS.

&&

.TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...YOUTUBE...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/TUCSON

FRANCIS






000
FXUS65 KFGZ 141104 CCA
AFDFGZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ
330 AM MST MON APR 14 2014

.SYNOPSIS...EXPECT GUSTY NORTH WINDS TODAY WITH CLEAR SKIES. LIGHTER
WINDS AND FAIR WEATHER WILL RETURN FOR TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.
ANOTHER WEAK STORM SYSTEM WILL USHER IN A CHANCE OF SHOWERS FRIDAY
AND SATURDAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...YESTERDAYS COLD FRONT HAS MOVED EAST OF ARIZONA.
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN THE GREAT BASIN TODAY WILL BRING
BREEZY NORTH TO NORTHEAST WINDS TO THE AREA. CLEAR SKIES TONIGHT
WILL ALLOW GOOD VIEWING CONDITION FOR THE ECLIPSE.

TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...FAIR AND DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED.
MODELS SHOW A WEAK WEATHER DISTURBANCE BRUSHING THE ARIZONA/UTAH
BORDER WEDNESDAY. EXPECT THE USUAL SPRING BREEZES EACH AFTERNOON
WITH THE FASTEST SPEEDS WEDNESDAY.

FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW ANOTHER WEAK LOW
MEANDERING ACROSS ARIZONA. ONLY EXPECTING LIGHT SHOWER ACTIVITY FROM
THIS SYSTEM AND WILL CONTINUE THE SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS.

&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 12Z PACKAGE...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR THE
FCST PERIOD. WINDS INCREASING AND BECOMING NORTHEASTERLY ESPECIALLY
ALONG AND SOUTHWEST OF THE MOGOLLON RIM WHERE 15-20 KTS AND GUSTS UP
TO 30 KTS CAN BE EXPECTED. AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR
AMENDMENTS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...A DRY NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL DEVELOP ACROSS
NORTHERN ARIZONA TODAY WHILE SURFACE WINDS WILL BE NORTH TO
NORTHEAST. WINDS WILL BE STRONGEST ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE MOGOLLON
RIM TODAY. EXPECT MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY OF 8 TO 15 PERCENT
TODAY. WINDS WILL DECREASE WITH WARMER DAYTIME TEMPERATURES ON
TUESDAY.

WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...A DRY COLD FRONT WILL PUSH ACROSS THE
STATE ON WEDNESDAY BRINGING GUSTY SOUTHWEST TO WEST WINDS. A WEAK
RIDGE WILL DEVELOP ON THURSDAY AND WINDS WILL DIMINISH. ON
FRIDAY...A WEAK PACIFIC LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL APPROACH THE AREA
AND BRING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS.
&&

.FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC.........DL
AVIATION.......DB
FIRE WEATHER...DB

FOR NORTHERN ARIZONA WEATHER INFORMATION VISIT WEATHER.GOV/FLAGSTAFF














000
FXUS65 KFGZ 141101
AFDFGZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ
330 AM MST MON APR 14 2014

.SYNOPSIS...EXPECT GUSTY NORTH WINDS TODAY WITH CLEAR SKIES. LIGHTER
WINDS AND FAIR WEATHER WILL RETURN FOR TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.
ANOTHER WEAK STORM SYSTEM WILL USHER IN A CHANCE OF SHOWERS FRIDAY
AND SATURDAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...YESTERDAYS COLD FRONT HAS MOVED EAST OF ARIZONA.
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN THE GREAT BASIN TODAY WILL BRING
BREEZY NORTH TO NORTHEAST WINDS TO THE AREA. CLEAR SKIES TONIGHT
WILL ALLOW GOOD VIEWING CONDITION FOR THE ECLIPSE.

TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...FAIR AND DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED.
MODELS SHOW A WEAK WEATHER DISTURBANCE BRUSHING THE ARIZONA/UTAH
BORDER WEDNESDAY. EXPECT THE USUAL SPRING BREEZES EACH AFTERNOON
WITH THE FASTEST SPEEDS WEDNESDAY.

FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW ANOTHER WEAK LOW
MEANDERING ACROSS ARIZONA. ONLY EXPECTING LIGHT SHOWER ACTIVITY FROM
THIS SYSTEM AND WILL CONTINUE THE SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS.

&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 12Z PACKAGE...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR THE
FCST PERIOD. AFT 15Z...WINDS INCREASING AND BECOMING NORTHEASTERLY
ESPECIALLY ALONG AND SOUTHWEST OF THE MOGOLLON RIM WHERE 15-20 KTS
AND GUSTS UP TO 30 KTS CAN BE EXPECTED. AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT
UPDATED FOR AMENDMENTS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...A DRY NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL DEVELOP ACROSS
NORTHERN ARIZONA TODAY WHILE SURFACE WINDS WILL BE NORTH TO
NORTHEAST. WINDS WILL BE STRONGEST ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE MOGOLLON
RIM TODAY. EXPECT MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY OF 8 TO 15 PERCENT
TODAY. WINDS WILL DECREASE WITH WARMER DAYTIME TEMPERATURES ON
TUESDAY.

WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...A DRY COLD FRONT WILL PUSH ACROSS THE
STATE ON WEDNESDAY BRINGING GUSTY SOUTHWEST TO WEST WINDS. A WEAK
RIDGE WILL DEVELOP ON THURSDAY AND WINDS WILL DIMINISH. ON
FRIDAY...A WEAK PACIFIC LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL APPROACH THE AREA
AND BRING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS.
&&

.FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC.........DL
AVIATION.......DB
FIRE WEATHER...DB

FOR NORTHERN ARIZONA WEATHER INFORMATION VISIT WEATHER.GOV/FLAGSTAFF











000
FXUS65 KFGZ 141032
AFDFGZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ
330 AM MST MON APR 14 2014

.SYNOPSIS...EXPECT GUSTY NORTH WINDS TODAY WITH CLEAR SKIES.  FRONT.
LIGHTER WINDS AND FAIR WEATHER WILL RETURN FOR TUESDAY THROUGH
THURSDAY. ANOTHER WEAK STORM SYSTEM WILL USHER IN A CHANCE OF
SHOWERS FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...YESTERDAYS COLD FRONT HAS MOVED EAST OF ARIZONA.
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN THE GREAT BASIN TODAY WILL BRING
BREEZY NORTH TO NORTHEAST WINDS TO THE AREA. CLEAR SKIES TONIGHT
WILL ALLOW GOOD VIEWING CONDITION FOR THE ECLIPSE.

TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...FAIR AND DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED.
MODELS SHOW A WEAK WEATHER DISTURBANCE BRUSHING THE ARIZONA/UTAH
BORDER WEDNESDAY. EXPECT THE USUAL SPRING BREEZES EACH AFTERNOON
WITH THE FASTEST SPEEDS WEDNESDAY.

FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW ANOTHER WEAK LOW
MEANDERING ACROSS ARIZONA. ONLY EXPECTING LIGHT SHOWER ACTIVITY FROM
THIS SYSTEM AND WILL CONTINUE THE SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS.

&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 12Z PACKAGE...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR THE
FCST PERIOD. AFT 15Z...WINDS INCREASING AND BECOMING NORTHEASTERLY
ESPECIALLY ALONG AND SOUTHWEST OF THE MOGOLLON RIM WHERE 15-20 KTS
AND GUSTS UP TO 30 KTS CAN BE EXPECTED. AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT
UPDATED FOR AMENDMENTS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...A DRY NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL DEVELOP ACROSS
NORTHERN ARIZONA TODAY WHILE SURFACE WINDS WILL BE NORTH TO
NORTHEAST. WINDS WILL BE STRONGEST ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE MOGOLLON
RIM TODAY. EXPECT MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY OF 8 TO 15 PERCENT
TODAY. WINDS WILL DECREASE WITH WARMER DAYTIME TEMPERATURES ON
TUESDAY.

WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...A DRY COLD FRONT WILL PUSH ACROSS THE
STATE ON WEDNESDAY BRINGING GUSTY SOUTHWEST TO WEST WINDS. A WEAK
RIDGE WILL DEVELOP ON THURSDAY AND WINDS WILL DIMINISH. ON
FRIDAY...A WEAK PACIFIC LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL APPROACH THE AREA
AND BRING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS.
&&

.FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC.........DL
AVIATION.......DB
FIRE WEATHER...DB

FOR NORTHERN ARIZONA WEATHER INFORMATION VISIT WEATHER.GOV/FLAGSTAFF








000
FXUS65 KPSR 141010
AFDPSR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PHOENIX AZ
310 AM MST MON APR 14 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM PASSING BY TO OUR NORTHEAST TODAY WILL
CONTINUE BREEZY CONDITIONS AND USHER IN SLIGHTLY COOLER AIR TO THE
REGION. HOWEVER...HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN ABOVE SEASONAL
NORMALS UNDER MOSTLY SUNNY OR SUNNY SKIES. DRY WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT
WILL PERSIST THROUGH MUCH OF THE WORK WEEK WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES
WILL WARM INTO THE 90S OVER THE WARMER DESERTS. A WEAK UPPER LEVEL
LOW APPROACHING FROM THE EAST PACIFIC WILL SPREAD INCREASING CLOUDS
INTO THE AREA FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND...LEADING TO A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
SHOWERS ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL ARIZONA AND THE POSSIBILITY FOR SLIGHTLY
COOLER DAYTIME TEMPERATURES.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
SHORTWAVE TROUGHING REMAINS OVER THE FOUR CORNERS THIS MORNING AS A
SURFACE COLD FRONT WAS SINKING SOUTHWARD THROUGH ARIZONA. MORNING
MSLP ANALYSIS AND DEWPOINT OBSERVATIONS PLOT THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY
ACROSS SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA AND SOUTH OF THE PHX METRO ALREADY WITH
BREEZY NORTHERLY WINDS AND SINGLE DIGIT DEWPOINTS IN IT`S WAKE. WINDS
OVERNIGHT HAVE KEPT MANY DESERT LOCATIONS MIXED AND RUNNING ON THE
WARM SIDE THIS MORNING...SOME STATIONS NEARLY 10 DEGREES WARMER THAN
THIS TIME SUNDAY AM. SUBTLE COOLING BEHIND THE FRONT MAY SHAVE OFF A
DEGREE OR TWO OFF THE HIGH TEMPERATURES COMPARED TO THE TEMPERATURES
FROM OVER THE WEEKEND WHILE FALLING IN LINE WITH EARLY APRIL NORMALS.
UNDER CLEAR/SUNNY SKIES TEMPERATURES SHOULD TOP OFF IN THE LOW TO MID
80S ACROSS THE LOWER DESERT ELEVATIONS.

WITH DRY AIR FILTERING INTO THE REGION OVERNIGHT...SOME LOCATIONS
WILL EXPERIENCE ONLY FAIR TO MODEST HUMIDITY RECOVERIES. BREEZY TO
WINDY CONDITIONS...ESPECIALLY ALONG AREA RIDGETOPS...WILL PERSIST
INTO THE DAY AND DAYTIME HUMIDITIES ARE EXPECTED TO DRY BELOW 10
PERCENT. ISOLATED POCKETS OF CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS MAY
DEVELOP FOR AN HOUR TO TWO TODAY AS A RESULT. POTENTIAL FOR THESE
HAVE BEEN HIGHLIGHTED AND HEADLINED IN THE MORNING FIRE WEATHER
FORECAST.

BY TUESDAY...DRY NORTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL SET UP OVER THE WESTERN
CONUS WITH SUBTLY INCREASING 1000-500MB THICKNESSES EACH DAY. THIS
WILL RESULT IN A RETURN TO UPPER 80 TO LOW 90 DEGREE READINGS. SKIES
WILL BE MOSTLY CLEAR WITH SOME PASSING HIGH CLOUDS EXPECTED TUESDAY.
ANOTHER WEAK SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE THROUGH TO NORTH ACROSS THE GREAT
BASIN STATES LATE WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. THE BULK OF THE
ENERGY...COOLER AIR AND LIMITED MOISTURE REMAINS WELL TO OUR
NORTH ONLY ENHANCING DAYTIME WINDS OVER THE FORECAST AREA FOR
WEDNESDAY AND HAVING LITTLE COOLING EFFECT ON OUR TEMPERATURES.

MODEL SOLUTIONS ARE IN DECENT AGREEMENT NOW THROUGH SATURDAY
MORNING...COMPARED TO THEIR PREVIOUS PERFORMANCE OVER LATE LAST WEEK
WITH THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN. WEAK TROUGHING AND PACIFIC LOW ENERGY
WILL MOVE THROUGH THE SOUTHWEST OFF THE EASTERN PACIFIC...INTRODUCING
LOWER HEIGHTS...SLIGHT PROFILE COOLING AND ENOUGH MOISTURE TO
CONTINUE THE SLIGHT SHOWER/THUNDER CHANCES FOR LATE FRIDAY INTO
SATURDAY. THE LATEST GFS/ECMWF/GEM RUNS BRING 500MB HEIGHTS DOWN IN
TO THE 566-570DM RANGE AS THE LOW MOVES ON-SHORE ALONG WITH
INCREASING PWATS IN THE 0.60-0.75 IN RANGE PUSHING INTO SOUTHEAST CA
/SOUTH-CENTRAL AZ OVERNIGHT FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. MADE LITTLE CHANGE
TO THE EXTENDED POP GRID FORECAST...WITH SLIGHT CHANCES DOWN
THROUGHOUT PORTIONS OF SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA...INCLUDING THE PHOENIX
METRO AREA...FOR FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY. STILL NOT EXPECTING MUCH
BY WAY OF MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION AT THIS TIME. WITH THE LOWER
HEIGHTS...TEMPERATURES WILL SEE A SLIGHT COOL DOWN AND DROP BACK
TOWARDS MORE SEASONABLE READINGS IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...
SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA INCLUDING KPHX...KIWA...AND KSDL...
SHIFTING WIND DIRECTIONS AND LOCALIZED HIGHER GUSTS WILL BE THE
PRIMARY AVIATION CONCERNS FOR CNTRL ARIZONA THROUGH MONDAY
AFTERNOON. A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL MOVE ACROSS THE TERMINALS AFTER
MIDNIGHT...GENERALLY SHIFTING BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS FROM THE WEST TO
NORTH AND NORTHEAST LATE TONIGHT. HOWEVER...TERRAIN FEATURES MAY
HAVE A LARGE INFLUENCE ON TIMING...DIRECTION...AND GUSTINESS OF SFC
WINDS THROUGH LATE MONDAY MORNING. OVERALL...FORECAST CONFIDENCE IN
THESE WIND FEATURES IS MUCH LOWER THAN AVERAGE.

SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA AND SOUTHWEST ARIZONA INCLUDING KIPL AND KBLH...
WIND SHIFTS AND OCCASIONAL HIGHER GUSTS WILL BE THE MAIN AVIATION
CONCERN THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON. W/SW WINDS WILL ABRUPTLY SHIFT TO
A NORTHERLY DIRECTION TONIGHT (FIRST AT KBLH...THEN KIPL TOWARDS
SUNRISE) IN ASSOCIATION WITH A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE. PERIODS OF
STRONGER GUSTS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THE INITIAL FROPA...AS WELL AS
LATER MONDAY MORNING WITH INCREASED BOUNDARY LAYER MIXING. FORECAST
CONFIDENCE IS MODERATE WITH RESPECT TO WIND SHIFT TIMING AND
FREQUENCY OF GUSTINESS.

AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDED TAFS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...
STRONG HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SFC AND ALOFT WILL KEEP SKIES MOSTLY
CLEAR THROUGH FRIDAY. VERY DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH
THE PERIOD AS WELL...WITH HUMIDITIES FALLING INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS
AND LOW TEENS EACH AFTERNOON...AND FAIR TO GOOD OVERNIGHT
RECOVERIES. WINDS THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL GENERALLY BE ON THE LIGHT
SIDE...BUT AFTERNOON BREEZINESS IS LIKELY ON WEDNESDAY. TEMPERATURES
WILL REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL WITH LOWER DESERT HIGHS MOSTLY IN THE UPPER
80S AND LOWER 90S. A WEATHER DISTURBANCE IS EXPECTED TO AFFECT THE
REGION FROM FRIDAY NIGHT INTO THE WEEKEND. THIS DISTURBANCE WILL
BRING A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS TO THE REGION...AND RAISE MINIMUM
HUMIDITIES INTO THE 15-25 PERCENT RANGE EACH AFTERNOON...WITH GOOD
OVERNIGHT RECOVERIES.

&&

.PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

AZ...NONE.

CA...NONE.

&&

$$

VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/PHOENIX

DISCUSSION...NOLTE
AVIATION....MO
FIRE WEATHER...PERCHA





000
FXUS65 KPSR 141010
AFDPSR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PHOENIX AZ
310 AM MST MON APR 14 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM PASSING BY TO OUR NORTHEAST TODAY WILL
CONTINUE BREEZY CONDITIONS AND USHER IN SLIGHTLY COOLER AIR TO THE
REGION. HOWEVER...HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN ABOVE SEASONAL
NORMALS UNDER MOSTLY SUNNY OR SUNNY SKIES. DRY WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT
WILL PERSIST THROUGH MUCH OF THE WORK WEEK WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES
WILL WARM INTO THE 90S OVER THE WARMER DESERTS. A WEAK UPPER LEVEL
LOW APPROACHING FROM THE EAST PACIFIC WILL SPREAD INCREASING CLOUDS
INTO THE AREA FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND...LEADING TO A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
SHOWERS ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL ARIZONA AND THE POSSIBILITY FOR SLIGHTLY
COOLER DAYTIME TEMPERATURES.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
SHORTWAVE TROUGHING REMAINS OVER THE FOUR CORNERS THIS MORNING AS A
SURFACE COLD FRONT WAS SINKING SOUTHWARD THROUGH ARIZONA. MORNING
MSLP ANALYSIS AND DEWPOINT OBSERVATIONS PLOT THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY
ACROSS SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA AND SOUTH OF THE PHX METRO ALREADY WITH
BREEZY NORTHERLY WINDS AND SINGLE DIGIT DEWPOINTS IN IT`S WAKE. WINDS
OVERNIGHT HAVE KEPT MANY DESERT LOCATIONS MIXED AND RUNNING ON THE
WARM SIDE THIS MORNING...SOME STATIONS NEARLY 10 DEGREES WARMER THAN
THIS TIME SUNDAY AM. SUBTLE COOLING BEHIND THE FRONT MAY SHAVE OFF A
DEGREE OR TWO OFF THE HIGH TEMPERATURES COMPARED TO THE TEMPERATURES
FROM OVER THE WEEKEND WHILE FALLING IN LINE WITH EARLY APRIL NORMALS.
UNDER CLEAR/SUNNY SKIES TEMPERATURES SHOULD TOP OFF IN THE LOW TO MID
80S ACROSS THE LOWER DESERT ELEVATIONS.

WITH DRY AIR FILTERING INTO THE REGION OVERNIGHT...SOME LOCATIONS
WILL EXPERIENCE ONLY FAIR TO MODEST HUMIDITY RECOVERIES. BREEZY TO
WINDY CONDITIONS...ESPECIALLY ALONG AREA RIDGETOPS...WILL PERSIST
INTO THE DAY AND DAYTIME HUMIDITIES ARE EXPECTED TO DRY BELOW 10
PERCENT. ISOLATED POCKETS OF CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS MAY
DEVELOP FOR AN HOUR TO TWO TODAY AS A RESULT. POTENTIAL FOR THESE
HAVE BEEN HIGHLIGHTED AND HEADLINED IN THE MORNING FIRE WEATHER
FORECAST.

BY TUESDAY...DRY NORTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL SET UP OVER THE WESTERN
CONUS WITH SUBTLY INCREASING 1000-500MB THICKNESSES EACH DAY. THIS
WILL RESULT IN A RETURN TO UPPER 80 TO LOW 90 DEGREE READINGS. SKIES
WILL BE MOSTLY CLEAR WITH SOME PASSING HIGH CLOUDS EXPECTED TUESDAY.
ANOTHER WEAK SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE THROUGH TO NORTH ACROSS THE GREAT
BASIN STATES LATE WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. THE BULK OF THE
ENERGY...COOLER AIR AND LIMITED MOISTURE REMAINS WELL TO OUR
NORTH ONLY ENHANCING DAYTIME WINDS OVER THE FORECAST AREA FOR
WEDNESDAY AND HAVING LITTLE COOLING EFFECT ON OUR TEMPERATURES.

MODEL SOLUTIONS ARE IN DECENT AGREEMENT NOW THROUGH SATURDAY
MORNING...COMPARED TO THEIR PREVIOUS PERFORMANCE OVER LATE LAST WEEK
WITH THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN. WEAK TROUGHING AND PACIFIC LOW ENERGY
WILL MOVE THROUGH THE SOUTHWEST OFF THE EASTERN PACIFIC...INTRODUCING
LOWER HEIGHTS...SLIGHT PROFILE COOLING AND ENOUGH MOISTURE TO
CONTINUE THE SLIGHT SHOWER/THUNDER CHANCES FOR LATE FRIDAY INTO
SATURDAY. THE LATEST GFS/ECMWF/GEM RUNS BRING 500MB HEIGHTS DOWN IN
TO THE 566-570DM RANGE AS THE LOW MOVES ON-SHORE ALONG WITH
INCREASING PWATS IN THE 0.60-0.75 IN RANGE PUSHING INTO SOUTHEAST CA
/SOUTH-CENTRAL AZ OVERNIGHT FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. MADE LITTLE CHANGE
TO THE EXTENDED POP GRID FORECAST...WITH SLIGHT CHANCES DOWN
THROUGHOUT PORTIONS OF SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA...INCLUDING THE PHOENIX
METRO AREA...FOR FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY. STILL NOT EXPECTING MUCH
BY WAY OF MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION AT THIS TIME. WITH THE LOWER
HEIGHTS...TEMPERATURES WILL SEE A SLIGHT COOL DOWN AND DROP BACK
TOWARDS MORE SEASONABLE READINGS IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...
SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA INCLUDING KPHX...KIWA...AND KSDL...
SHIFTING WIND DIRECTIONS AND LOCALIZED HIGHER GUSTS WILL BE THE
PRIMARY AVIATION CONCERNS FOR CNTRL ARIZONA THROUGH MONDAY
AFTERNOON. A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL MOVE ACROSS THE TERMINALS AFTER
MIDNIGHT...GENERALLY SHIFTING BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS FROM THE WEST TO
NORTH AND NORTHEAST LATE TONIGHT. HOWEVER...TERRAIN FEATURES MAY
HAVE A LARGE INFLUENCE ON TIMING...DIRECTION...AND GUSTINESS OF SFC
WINDS THROUGH LATE MONDAY MORNING. OVERALL...FORECAST CONFIDENCE IN
THESE WIND FEATURES IS MUCH LOWER THAN AVERAGE.

SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA AND SOUTHWEST ARIZONA INCLUDING KIPL AND KBLH...
WIND SHIFTS AND OCCASIONAL HIGHER GUSTS WILL BE THE MAIN AVIATION
CONCERN THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON. W/SW WINDS WILL ABRUPTLY SHIFT TO
A NORTHERLY DIRECTION TONIGHT (FIRST AT KBLH...THEN KIPL TOWARDS
SUNRISE) IN ASSOCIATION WITH A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE. PERIODS OF
STRONGER GUSTS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THE INITIAL FROPA...AS WELL AS
LATER MONDAY MORNING WITH INCREASED BOUNDARY LAYER MIXING. FORECAST
CONFIDENCE IS MODERATE WITH RESPECT TO WIND SHIFT TIMING AND
FREQUENCY OF GUSTINESS.

AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDED TAFS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...
STRONG HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SFC AND ALOFT WILL KEEP SKIES MOSTLY
CLEAR THROUGH FRIDAY. VERY DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH
THE PERIOD AS WELL...WITH HUMIDITIES FALLING INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS
AND LOW TEENS EACH AFTERNOON...AND FAIR TO GOOD OVERNIGHT
RECOVERIES. WINDS THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL GENERALLY BE ON THE LIGHT
SIDE...BUT AFTERNOON BREEZINESS IS LIKELY ON WEDNESDAY. TEMPERATURES
WILL REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL WITH LOWER DESERT HIGHS MOSTLY IN THE UPPER
80S AND LOWER 90S. A WEATHER DISTURBANCE IS EXPECTED TO AFFECT THE
REGION FROM FRIDAY NIGHT INTO THE WEEKEND. THIS DISTURBANCE WILL
BRING A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS TO THE REGION...AND RAISE MINIMUM
HUMIDITIES INTO THE 15-25 PERCENT RANGE EACH AFTERNOON...WITH GOOD
OVERNIGHT RECOVERIES.

&&

.PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

AZ...NONE.

CA...NONE.

&&

$$

VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/PHOENIX

DISCUSSION...NOLTE
AVIATION....MO
FIRE WEATHER...PERCHA






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