Home > Products > State Listing > Arizona Data
Latest:
 AFDFGZ |  AFDPSR |  AFDTWC |
  [top]

000
FXUS65 KTWC 251235 CCA
AFDTWC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ
215 AM MST SUN JAN 25 2015

.SYNOPSIS...SEASONAL DAYTIME TEMPERATURES AND EASTERLY BREEZES WILL
PREVAIL THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEKEND. INCREASING MOISTURE FROM
THE SOUTH WILL BRING THICKENING CLOUDS AND SHOWERS TO SOUTHERN
ARIZONA MONDAY INTO EARLY TUESDAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND 25/00Z UPPER-AIR PLOTS
INDICATE THAT THE UPPER LOW IS SPINNING OFFSHORE OF THE SOUTH
CENTRAL BAJA PENINSULA. MEANWHILE...IR SATELLITE IMAGERY IS SHOWING
EXTENSIVE CLOUDINESS SPREADING NORTHWARD AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM OVER
MUCH OF MEXICO AND INTO EXTREME SOUTHERN ARIZONA AND SOUTHWEST NEW
MEXICO. LAST EVENINGS KTWC 25/00Z SOUNDING ONLY SHOWED A
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUE OF 0.14 INCHES. THE SATELLITE DERIVED
BLENDED TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER PRODUCT SHOWED DRY AIR ACROSS MUCH
OF THE DESERT SOUTHWEST...BUT HIGHER PW AIR LURKS TO OUR SOUTH
ACROSS SOUTHERN BAJA...THE SOUTHERN GULF OF CALIFORNIA AND SOUTHERN
SONORA...WITH VALUES OF AROUND 0.75 - 1.0 INCHES. MODELS INDICATE
THAT THIS MOIST AIR TO OUR SOUTH WILL WORK ITS WAY NORTHWARD THROUGH
EARLY TUESDAY WITH PW VALUES INCREASING TO AROUND A HALF TO THREE
QUARTERS OF AN INCH OVER THE WHITE MOUNTAINS OF EAST CENTRAL ARIZONA
TO AROUND 1.25 INCHES OVER THE WESTERN DESERTS OF CENTRAL AND
WESTERN PIMA COUNTY.

AS THE MOISTURE SPREADS TO THE NORTH THE FIRST ISOLATED SHOWERS
SHOULD DEVELOP LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY MONDAY MORNING OVER SOUTH
CENTRAL PIMA COUNTY AND SANTA CRUZ COUNTY...GENERALLY ALONG THE
BORDER FROM NOGALES TO ORGAN PIPE. AS THE DAY BEGINS MONDAY THROUGH
ABOUT MIDDAY...THE SHOWERS WILL INCREASE DRAMATICALLY FROM THE
SOUTHWEST WITH SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS FROM TUCSON TO NOGALES
AND WESTWARD TO AJO AND BEYOND. A VERY STEEP GRADIENT OF RAIN
CHANCES WILL OCCUR AS THE SHOWERS BEGIN TO DEVELOP EARLY MONDAY WITH
VERY LITTLE THREAT FOR SHOWERS OVER THE WHITE MOUNTAINS OF NORTHERN
GREENLEE COUNTY.

BY MONDAY AFTERNOON THE SHOWERS WILL SPREAD TOWARD THE NORTH AND
NORTHEAST AND BY MONDAY EVENING NUMEROUS SHOWERS WILL BE PRESENT
OVER DESERT/VALLEY LOCATIONS...WITH PRECIPITATION A GIVEN OVER MOST
OF THE MOUNTAINS OF SOUTHEAST ARIZONA. PERHAPS ONLY THE MOUNTAINS
ALONG THE NEW MEXICO BORDER WILL SEE LESSER CHANCES...BUT STILL
SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS IN THAT AREA.

AFTER MIDNIGHT MONDAY NIGHT...THE UPPER TROUGH SHOULD LIE ACROSS THE
PACIFIC WATERS OF THE SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA COAST AND INTO SOUTHWEST
ARIZONA. THE INITIAL VORT LOBE THAT WILL TRIGGER SHOWERS DURING THE
DAY ON MONDAY AND INTO MONDAY EVENING WILL BE OVER NORTHEAST ARIZONA
AND INTO WESTERN NEW MEXICO BY LATE MONDAY EVENING. AS A RESULT THE
SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO MAKE NORTHWARD PROGRESS OVERNIGHT INTO
EARLY TUESDAY AS THIS SYSTEM LIFTS INTO THE GREAT BASIN (NEVADA AND
UTAH) BY MIDDAY TUESDAY. WITH SUCH AN ABUNDANT AMOUNT OF MOISTURE
AVAILABLE WITH THIS SYSTEM...QPF VALUES WILL BE RESPECTABLE WITH
STORM TOTAL AMOUNTS FROM EARLY MONDAY THROUGH MIDDAY TUESDAY
GENERALLY AROUND A HALF INCH FROM TUCSON TO NOGALES AND WESTWARD
ACROSS MUCH OF CENTRAL AND WESTERN PIMA COUNTY. LESSER AMOUNTS
EXPECTED FARTHER EAST ACROSS GREENLEE...GRAHAM AND COCHISE
COUNTIES...BUT STILL AROUND A THIRD TO A HALF INCH. THIS SYSTEM WILL
BE A WARM SYSTEM...SO SNOW LEVELS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO FALL VERY
MUCH. SNOW LEVELS WILL PERHAPS FALL TO AROUND 9000 FEET...SO AT THIS
TIME THE ONLY POTENTIAL FOR ANY APPRECIABLE SNOW WOULD BE OVER THE
WHITE MOUNTAINS OF NORTHERN GREENLEE COUNTY WHERE AN INCH OR SO IS
POSSIBLE.

ONCE THIS SYSTEM LIFTS TO THE NORTH AND EAST...DRY WEATHER WILL
RETURN LATE TUESDAY THROUGH MUCH OF THURSDAY BEFORE ANOTHER PACIFIC
SYSTEM WILL LIKELY BRING ANOTHER SHOT OF PRECIPITATION TO THE REGION
BEGINNING LATE THURSDAY AND CONTINUING THROUGH THE WEEKEND. FOR NOW
I ONLY HAVE CHANCE CATEGORY POPS IN THE FORECAST...MAINLY FRIDAY
THROUGH SATURDAY. HOWEVER...AS THIS SYSTEM GETS CLOSER IN BOTH SPACE
AND TIME...THE RAIN CHANCES WILL LIKELY NEED ADDITIONAL
MODIFICATION...SO STAY TUNED.

FOR TUCSON...HIGHS TODAY WILL GENERALLY BE AROUND 7 TO 9 DEGS ABOVE
NORMAL. SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL HIGHS EXPECTED MONDAY AND SLIGHTLY
ABOVE NORMAL FOR TUESDAY. THEREAFTER...HIGHS AROUND 6 TO 8 DEGS
ABOVE NORMAL WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY AND A FEW DEGS BELOW NORMAL FOR
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. LOW TEMPERATURES WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH
THE ENTIRE FORECAST PERIOD...WITH LOWS RANGING FROM 8 TO 12 DEGS
ABOVE NORMAL MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY MORNINGS AND 5 TO 7 DEGS ABOVE
NORMAL FOR SATURDAY MORNING.

&&

.AVIATION...VALID THRU 26/12Z.
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE PERIOD. HIGH CLOUDS WILL BE
ON THE INCREASE FROM SOUTH TO NORTH OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS WITH
SCATTERED MID CLOUD STARTING TO FILTER IN FROM THE SOUTH LATE
TODAY. EASTERLY SURFACE WINDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE PERIOD.
SPEEDS WILL GENERALLY BE LESS THAN 12 KTS WITH OCCASIONAL GUSTS UP
TO 20 KTS THROUGH MUCH OF TODAY. HOWEVER...LATE TONIGHT AND INTO
EARLY MONDAY MORNING SPEEDS WILL INCREASE TO AROUND 10-15 KNOTS WITH
GUSTS TO AROUND 20-25 KNOTS. AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR TAF
AMENDMENTS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...GUSTY EAST TO SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL OCCUR FOR MUCH OF
THE AREA OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. SPEEDS WILL BE 10-15 MPH WITH
A FEW HIGHER GUSTS MAINLY DURING THE DAYTIME. DRY CONDITIONS WILL
PERSIST THROUGH TODAY. AN INCREASE IN MOISTURE AND A HIGH POTENTIAL
OF SHOWERS WILL OCCUR MONDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING. THE
BEST CHANCE FOR SHOWERS WILL BE MONDAY AFTERNOON INTO MONDAY NIGHT.
DRY WEATHER WILL RETURN TUESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH THURSDAY BEFORE
ANOTHER DISTURBANCE BRINGS A THREAT OF SHOWERS ONCE AGAIN LATE NEXT
WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND.

&&

.TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...YOUTUBE...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/TUCSON

MOLLERE









000
FXUS65 KTWC 251235 CCA
AFDTWC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ
215 AM MST SUN JAN 25 2015

.SYNOPSIS...SEASONAL DAYTIME TEMPERATURES AND EASTERLY BREEZES WILL
PREVAIL THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEKEND. INCREASING MOISTURE FROM
THE SOUTH WILL BRING THICKENING CLOUDS AND SHOWERS TO SOUTHERN
ARIZONA MONDAY INTO EARLY TUESDAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND 25/00Z UPPER-AIR PLOTS
INDICATE THAT THE UPPER LOW IS SPINNING OFFSHORE OF THE SOUTH
CENTRAL BAJA PENINSULA. MEANWHILE...IR SATELLITE IMAGERY IS SHOWING
EXTENSIVE CLOUDINESS SPREADING NORTHWARD AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM OVER
MUCH OF MEXICO AND INTO EXTREME SOUTHERN ARIZONA AND SOUTHWEST NEW
MEXICO. LAST EVENINGS KTWC 25/00Z SOUNDING ONLY SHOWED A
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUE OF 0.14 INCHES. THE SATELLITE DERIVED
BLENDED TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER PRODUCT SHOWED DRY AIR ACROSS MUCH
OF THE DESERT SOUTHWEST...BUT HIGHER PW AIR LURKS TO OUR SOUTH
ACROSS SOUTHERN BAJA...THE SOUTHERN GULF OF CALIFORNIA AND SOUTHERN
SONORA...WITH VALUES OF AROUND 0.75 - 1.0 INCHES. MODELS INDICATE
THAT THIS MOIST AIR TO OUR SOUTH WILL WORK ITS WAY NORTHWARD THROUGH
EARLY TUESDAY WITH PW VALUES INCREASING TO AROUND A HALF TO THREE
QUARTERS OF AN INCH OVER THE WHITE MOUNTAINS OF EAST CENTRAL ARIZONA
TO AROUND 1.25 INCHES OVER THE WESTERN DESERTS OF CENTRAL AND
WESTERN PIMA COUNTY.

AS THE MOISTURE SPREADS TO THE NORTH THE FIRST ISOLATED SHOWERS
SHOULD DEVELOP LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY MONDAY MORNING OVER SOUTH
CENTRAL PIMA COUNTY AND SANTA CRUZ COUNTY...GENERALLY ALONG THE
BORDER FROM NOGALES TO ORGAN PIPE. AS THE DAY BEGINS MONDAY THROUGH
ABOUT MIDDAY...THE SHOWERS WILL INCREASE DRAMATICALLY FROM THE
SOUTHWEST WITH SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS FROM TUCSON TO NOGALES
AND WESTWARD TO AJO AND BEYOND. A VERY STEEP GRADIENT OF RAIN
CHANCES WILL OCCUR AS THE SHOWERS BEGIN TO DEVELOP EARLY MONDAY WITH
VERY LITTLE THREAT FOR SHOWERS OVER THE WHITE MOUNTAINS OF NORTHERN
GREENLEE COUNTY.

BY MONDAY AFTERNOON THE SHOWERS WILL SPREAD TOWARD THE NORTH AND
NORTHEAST AND BY MONDAY EVENING NUMEROUS SHOWERS WILL BE PRESENT
OVER DESERT/VALLEY LOCATIONS...WITH PRECIPITATION A GIVEN OVER MOST
OF THE MOUNTAINS OF SOUTHEAST ARIZONA. PERHAPS ONLY THE MOUNTAINS
ALONG THE NEW MEXICO BORDER WILL SEE LESSER CHANCES...BUT STILL
SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS IN THAT AREA.

AFTER MIDNIGHT MONDAY NIGHT...THE UPPER TROUGH SHOULD LIE ACROSS THE
PACIFIC WATERS OF THE SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA COAST AND INTO SOUTHWEST
ARIZONA. THE INITIAL VORT LOBE THAT WILL TRIGGER SHOWERS DURING THE
DAY ON MONDAY AND INTO MONDAY EVENING WILL BE OVER NORTHEAST ARIZONA
AND INTO WESTERN NEW MEXICO BY LATE MONDAY EVENING. AS A RESULT THE
SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO MAKE NORTHWARD PROGRESS OVERNIGHT INTO
EARLY TUESDAY AS THIS SYSTEM LIFTS INTO THE GREAT BASIN (NEVADA AND
UTAH) BY MIDDAY TUESDAY. WITH SUCH AN ABUNDANT AMOUNT OF MOISTURE
AVAILABLE WITH THIS SYSTEM...QPF VALUES WILL BE RESPECTABLE WITH
STORM TOTAL AMOUNTS FROM EARLY MONDAY THROUGH MIDDAY TUESDAY
GENERALLY AROUND A HALF INCH FROM TUCSON TO NOGALES AND WESTWARD
ACROSS MUCH OF CENTRAL AND WESTERN PIMA COUNTY. LESSER AMOUNTS
EXPECTED FARTHER EAST ACROSS GREENLEE...GRAHAM AND COCHISE
COUNTIES...BUT STILL AROUND A THIRD TO A HALF INCH. THIS SYSTEM WILL
BE A WARM SYSTEM...SO SNOW LEVELS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO FALL VERY
MUCH. SNOW LEVELS WILL PERHAPS FALL TO AROUND 9000 FEET...SO AT THIS
TIME THE ONLY POTENTIAL FOR ANY APPRECIABLE SNOW WOULD BE OVER THE
WHITE MOUNTAINS OF NORTHERN GREENLEE COUNTY WHERE AN INCH OR SO IS
POSSIBLE.

ONCE THIS SYSTEM LIFTS TO THE NORTH AND EAST...DRY WEATHER WILL
RETURN LATE TUESDAY THROUGH MUCH OF THURSDAY BEFORE ANOTHER PACIFIC
SYSTEM WILL LIKELY BRING ANOTHER SHOT OF PRECIPITATION TO THE REGION
BEGINNING LATE THURSDAY AND CONTINUING THROUGH THE WEEKEND. FOR NOW
I ONLY HAVE CHANCE CATEGORY POPS IN THE FORECAST...MAINLY FRIDAY
THROUGH SATURDAY. HOWEVER...AS THIS SYSTEM GETS CLOSER IN BOTH SPACE
AND TIME...THE RAIN CHANCES WILL LIKELY NEED ADDITIONAL
MODIFICATION...SO STAY TUNED.

FOR TUCSON...HIGHS TODAY WILL GENERALLY BE AROUND 7 TO 9 DEGS ABOVE
NORMAL. SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL HIGHS EXPECTED MONDAY AND SLIGHTLY
ABOVE NORMAL FOR TUESDAY. THEREAFTER...HIGHS AROUND 6 TO 8 DEGS
ABOVE NORMAL WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY AND A FEW DEGS BELOW NORMAL FOR
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. LOW TEMPERATURES WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH
THE ENTIRE FORECAST PERIOD...WITH LOWS RANGING FROM 8 TO 12 DEGS
ABOVE NORMAL MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY MORNINGS AND 5 TO 7 DEGS ABOVE
NORMAL FOR SATURDAY MORNING.

&&

.AVIATION...VALID THRU 26/12Z.
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE PERIOD. HIGH CLOUDS WILL BE
ON THE INCREASE FROM SOUTH TO NORTH OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS WITH
SCATTERED MID CLOUD STARTING TO FILTER IN FROM THE SOUTH LATE
TODAY. EASTERLY SURFACE WINDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE PERIOD.
SPEEDS WILL GENERALLY BE LESS THAN 12 KTS WITH OCCASIONAL GUSTS UP
TO 20 KTS THROUGH MUCH OF TODAY. HOWEVER...LATE TONIGHT AND INTO
EARLY MONDAY MORNING SPEEDS WILL INCREASE TO AROUND 10-15 KNOTS WITH
GUSTS TO AROUND 20-25 KNOTS. AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR TAF
AMENDMENTS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...GUSTY EAST TO SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL OCCUR FOR MUCH OF
THE AREA OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. SPEEDS WILL BE 10-15 MPH WITH
A FEW HIGHER GUSTS MAINLY DURING THE DAYTIME. DRY CONDITIONS WILL
PERSIST THROUGH TODAY. AN INCREASE IN MOISTURE AND A HIGH POTENTIAL
OF SHOWERS WILL OCCUR MONDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING. THE
BEST CHANCE FOR SHOWERS WILL BE MONDAY AFTERNOON INTO MONDAY NIGHT.
DRY WEATHER WILL RETURN TUESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH THURSDAY BEFORE
ANOTHER DISTURBANCE BRINGS A THREAT OF SHOWERS ONCE AGAIN LATE NEXT
WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND.

&&

.TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...YOUTUBE...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/TUCSON

MOLLERE









  [top]

000
FXUS65 KPSR 251140
AFDPSR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PHOENIX AZ
440 AM MST SUN JAN 25 2015

.UPDATE...UPDATED AVIATION AND FIRE WEATHER DISCUSSIONS...

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
STRONG HIGH PRESSURE WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE WESTERN STATES
TODAY...RESULTING IN MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES AND WARM CONDITIONS. A LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA MONDAY...BRINGING AN
INCREASE IN MOISTURE AND LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS. IN ITS WAKE...ABOVE
NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND HIGHER THAN NORMAL HUMIDITIES WILL PREVAIL
THROUGH THE WEEK. ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BRING ADDITIONAL
MOISTURE AND ANOTHER CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION LATE IN THE WEEK
THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
LATEST STREAMLINE ANALYSIS SHOWS A LARGE ANTICYCLONE ACROSS NORTHERN
CALIFORNIA BUILDING SOUTHEASTWARD. FURTHER SOUTH...A CLOSED LOW
EVIDENT ON WV IMAGERY CONTINUES TO RETROGRADE WESTWARD FROM THE BAJA
PENINSULA. A COL REGION IS ALSO EVIDENT...WHICH IS DEFLECTING DEEPER
MOISTURE ACROSS NORTHERN MEXICO BOTH TO THE WEST AND EAST...BUT WITH
LITTLE PROGRESS NORTHWARD INTO CENTRAL AZ. MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES ARE
EXPECTED TODAY WITH WELL-ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE
REGION. INCREASING CIRRUS IS EXPECTED LATE IN THE DAY AS THE FLOW
VEERS AND THE MID-UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE FINALLY ADVECTS NORTHWARD.
SHORT-TERM TEMPERATURES ARE WEIGHTED HEAVILY TOWARDS A BLEND OF
BIAS-CORRECTED ECMWF AND SREF...WHICH HAVE BEEN RECENT TOP
PERFORMERS. FORECAST MAX OF 79 DEGREES IN PHOENIX WOULD STILL FALL A
FEW DEGREES SHORT OF THE RECORD OF 83 DEGREES SET IN 1951.

MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE THAT THE AFOREMENTIONED LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM WILL LIFT NORTHWARD BEGINNING TONIGHT...BRINGING WIDESPREAD
RAIN TO THE DESERT SOUTHWEST MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT. DEEP TROPICAL
MOISTURE WILL BE IN PLACE WITH PWATS BETWEEN 0.75 AND 1.25 INCHES
EQUATING TO STANDARDIZED ANOMALIES OF +2 TO +3. STRONGEST FORCING
FOR ASCENT CONTINUES TO TREND WESTWARD INTO CA. HOWEVER...ISENTROPIC
ASCENT AND MOISTURE TRANSPORT IN A MERIDIONAL FLOW WILL BE
SUFFICIENT TO PRODUCE THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL ACROSS PORTIONS OF AZ.
RAIN SHOWERS WILL GENERALLY TAPER OFF MONDAY NIGHT AS THE SYSTEM
WEAKENS AND SUBSIDENCE OVERSPREADS SOUTHERN AZ BEHIND THE TROUGH
AXIS.

THE HIGHEST RAIN TOTALS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS SOUTHWESTERN AZ WHERE
LOW-MID LEVEL THETA-E WILL BE MAXIMIZED. ACROSS YUMA COUNTY...A HALF
OF AN INCH OF RAIN IS POSSIBLE. ELSEWHERE...EXPECT GENERALLY BETWEEN
A QUARTER AND A HALF OF AN INCH OF PRECIPITATION. MODEL CONSENSUS
SUGGESTS RAIN TOTALS IN THE PHOENIX AREA WILL BE SOMEWHAT
LOWER...GENERALLY AROUND TWO TENTHS OF AN INCH.

THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL ACCELERATE NORTHWARD TUESDAY AS THE
RIDGE DRIFTS EASTWARD INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. MODEL CROSS-SECTIONS
INDICATE THAT LOW CLOUDS WILL BE PREVALENT IN THE MORNING...BEFORE
DISSIPATING IN THE AFTERNOON. LOCAL HI-RES WRFS ALSO SUGGEST THAT AN
ISOLATED SHOWER MAY BE POSSIBLE IN THE EARLY MORNING...PARTICULARLY
NORTH AND EAST OF PHOENIX.

ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND HIGHER THAN NORMAL HUMIDITIES WILL
PREVAIL THROUGH NEXT WEEK AS A RIDGE BECOMES REESTABLISHED TO OUR
SOUTH ACROSS MEXICO. ABUNDANT MID AND HIGH CLOUDS ARE ALSO EXPECTED
THROUGH THE WEEK. GLOBAL MODELS CONTINUE TO SUGGEST THAT ANOTHER
PACIFIC LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL AFFECT THE REGION LATE IN THE WEEK.
THIS SYSTEM APPEARS SLOWER THAN ITS PREDECESSOR AND HAS THE
POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE PRECIPITATION IN THE FRIDAY-SUNDAY TIME
FRAME...MAINLY ACROSS AZ. OFFICIAL FORECAST IS WEIGHTED TOWARDS THE
LATEST ECMWF...WHICH IS EXHIBITING RELATIVELY LOW ENSEMBLE SPREAD.
HOWEVER...PRECISE TIMING REMAINS UNCERTAIN AND CHANCE POPS HAVE BEEN
UTILIZED FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. THEREAFTER...MODEL CONSENSUS
SUGGESTS LOWER PROBABILITIES FOR SUNDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...
SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA INCLUDING KPHX...KIWA AND KSDL...

LITTLE TO NO AVIATION IMPACTS THROUGH EARLY MONDAY MORNING. INITIAL
CLEAR SKIES THIS MORNING WILL BECOME CLOUDY BY MONDAY MORNING AS
HIGH CLOUDS STREAM IN FROM THE SOUTH. BY 12Z MONDAY...CIGS SHOULD
LOWER TO AROUND 10K FEET. EASTERLY SFC WINDS WILL BE FAVORED FOR THE
ENTIRE PERIOD...ALTHOUGH WINDS MAY BECOME RATHER LIGHT/VARIABLE OR
EVEN LIGHT WEST LATER IN THE AFTERNOON SUNDAY...MORE SO AT KIWA THAN
KPHX.

FOR PLANNING PURPOSES...RAIN SHOWERS AND LOWERING CIGS SHOULD IMPACT
TERMINAL SITES LATER MONDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING. AT
THIS TIME...IT APPEARS ANY RAIN WOULD BE DELAYED UNTIL AFTER 21Z
MONDAY AND CIGS FALLING BELOW 6K FT WOULD BE FAVORED AFTER 03Z
TUESDAY. CONFIDENCE IS FAIR THAT CIGS WILL BE MAINTAINED IN A 4K-6K
FT LAYER MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING.

SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA AND SOUTHWEST ARIZONA INCLUDING KIPL AND KBLH...

NO AVIATION IMPACTS THROUGH EARLY MONDAY MORNING WITH MOSTLY CLEAR
SKIES TODAY AND INCREASING CLOUDS TONIGHT. WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT
AND GENERALLY FAVOR A WESTERLY OR NORTHERLY DIRECTION.

AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDED TAFS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...
NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES EXPECTED THROUGH THE
PERIOD WITH WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY BEING THE WARMEST DAYS. FAIRLY
MOIST CONDITIONS WILL EXIST AS SOUTHERLY FLOW PERSISTS ACROSS
THE DESERT SOUTHWEST. AN EXITING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM EARLY TUESDAY
WILL BRING LINGERING RAIN CHANCES THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON...WHILE
ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO BRING MORE RAIN CHANCES
FOR THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH POSSIBLY SATURDAY. THE MOIST CONDITIONS
WILL ONLY LEAD TO MINIMUM HUMIDITIES EACH AFTERNOON IN THE 25 TO 45
PERCENT RANGE. WITH THE EXCEPTION OF SOME OCCASIONAL EARLY MORNING
OR AFTERNOON BREEZINESS...WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT THROUGH THE ENTIRE
PERIOD.

&&

.PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

AZ...NONE.

CA...NONE.

&&

$$

VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/PHOENIX

DISCUSSION...HIRSCH
AVIATION...KUHLMAN/CB
FIRE WEATHER...KUHLMAN










000
FXUS65 KPSR 251140
AFDPSR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PHOENIX AZ
440 AM MST SUN JAN 25 2015

.UPDATE...UPDATED AVIATION AND FIRE WEATHER DISCUSSIONS...

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
STRONG HIGH PRESSURE WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE WESTERN STATES
TODAY...RESULTING IN MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES AND WARM CONDITIONS. A LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA MONDAY...BRINGING AN
INCREASE IN MOISTURE AND LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS. IN ITS WAKE...ABOVE
NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND HIGHER THAN NORMAL HUMIDITIES WILL PREVAIL
THROUGH THE WEEK. ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BRING ADDITIONAL
MOISTURE AND ANOTHER CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION LATE IN THE WEEK
THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
LATEST STREAMLINE ANALYSIS SHOWS A LARGE ANTICYCLONE ACROSS NORTHERN
CALIFORNIA BUILDING SOUTHEASTWARD. FURTHER SOUTH...A CLOSED LOW
EVIDENT ON WV IMAGERY CONTINUES TO RETROGRADE WESTWARD FROM THE BAJA
PENINSULA. A COL REGION IS ALSO EVIDENT...WHICH IS DEFLECTING DEEPER
MOISTURE ACROSS NORTHERN MEXICO BOTH TO THE WEST AND EAST...BUT WITH
LITTLE PROGRESS NORTHWARD INTO CENTRAL AZ. MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES ARE
EXPECTED TODAY WITH WELL-ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE
REGION. INCREASING CIRRUS IS EXPECTED LATE IN THE DAY AS THE FLOW
VEERS AND THE MID-UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE FINALLY ADVECTS NORTHWARD.
SHORT-TERM TEMPERATURES ARE WEIGHTED HEAVILY TOWARDS A BLEND OF
BIAS-CORRECTED ECMWF AND SREF...WHICH HAVE BEEN RECENT TOP
PERFORMERS. FORECAST MAX OF 79 DEGREES IN PHOENIX WOULD STILL FALL A
FEW DEGREES SHORT OF THE RECORD OF 83 DEGREES SET IN 1951.

MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE THAT THE AFOREMENTIONED LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM WILL LIFT NORTHWARD BEGINNING TONIGHT...BRINGING WIDESPREAD
RAIN TO THE DESERT SOUTHWEST MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT. DEEP TROPICAL
MOISTURE WILL BE IN PLACE WITH PWATS BETWEEN 0.75 AND 1.25 INCHES
EQUATING TO STANDARDIZED ANOMALIES OF +2 TO +3. STRONGEST FORCING
FOR ASCENT CONTINUES TO TREND WESTWARD INTO CA. HOWEVER...ISENTROPIC
ASCENT AND MOISTURE TRANSPORT IN A MERIDIONAL FLOW WILL BE
SUFFICIENT TO PRODUCE THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL ACROSS PORTIONS OF AZ.
RAIN SHOWERS WILL GENERALLY TAPER OFF MONDAY NIGHT AS THE SYSTEM
WEAKENS AND SUBSIDENCE OVERSPREADS SOUTHERN AZ BEHIND THE TROUGH
AXIS.

THE HIGHEST RAIN TOTALS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS SOUTHWESTERN AZ WHERE
LOW-MID LEVEL THETA-E WILL BE MAXIMIZED. ACROSS YUMA COUNTY...A HALF
OF AN INCH OF RAIN IS POSSIBLE. ELSEWHERE...EXPECT GENERALLY BETWEEN
A QUARTER AND A HALF OF AN INCH OF PRECIPITATION. MODEL CONSENSUS
SUGGESTS RAIN TOTALS IN THE PHOENIX AREA WILL BE SOMEWHAT
LOWER...GENERALLY AROUND TWO TENTHS OF AN INCH.

THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL ACCELERATE NORTHWARD TUESDAY AS THE
RIDGE DRIFTS EASTWARD INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. MODEL CROSS-SECTIONS
INDICATE THAT LOW CLOUDS WILL BE PREVALENT IN THE MORNING...BEFORE
DISSIPATING IN THE AFTERNOON. LOCAL HI-RES WRFS ALSO SUGGEST THAT AN
ISOLATED SHOWER MAY BE POSSIBLE IN THE EARLY MORNING...PARTICULARLY
NORTH AND EAST OF PHOENIX.

ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND HIGHER THAN NORMAL HUMIDITIES WILL
PREVAIL THROUGH NEXT WEEK AS A RIDGE BECOMES REESTABLISHED TO OUR
SOUTH ACROSS MEXICO. ABUNDANT MID AND HIGH CLOUDS ARE ALSO EXPECTED
THROUGH THE WEEK. GLOBAL MODELS CONTINUE TO SUGGEST THAT ANOTHER
PACIFIC LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL AFFECT THE REGION LATE IN THE WEEK.
THIS SYSTEM APPEARS SLOWER THAN ITS PREDECESSOR AND HAS THE
POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE PRECIPITATION IN THE FRIDAY-SUNDAY TIME
FRAME...MAINLY ACROSS AZ. OFFICIAL FORECAST IS WEIGHTED TOWARDS THE
LATEST ECMWF...WHICH IS EXHIBITING RELATIVELY LOW ENSEMBLE SPREAD.
HOWEVER...PRECISE TIMING REMAINS UNCERTAIN AND CHANCE POPS HAVE BEEN
UTILIZED FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. THEREAFTER...MODEL CONSENSUS
SUGGESTS LOWER PROBABILITIES FOR SUNDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...
SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA INCLUDING KPHX...KIWA AND KSDL...

LITTLE TO NO AVIATION IMPACTS THROUGH EARLY MONDAY MORNING. INITIAL
CLEAR SKIES THIS MORNING WILL BECOME CLOUDY BY MONDAY MORNING AS
HIGH CLOUDS STREAM IN FROM THE SOUTH. BY 12Z MONDAY...CIGS SHOULD
LOWER TO AROUND 10K FEET. EASTERLY SFC WINDS WILL BE FAVORED FOR THE
ENTIRE PERIOD...ALTHOUGH WINDS MAY BECOME RATHER LIGHT/VARIABLE OR
EVEN LIGHT WEST LATER IN THE AFTERNOON SUNDAY...MORE SO AT KIWA THAN
KPHX.

FOR PLANNING PURPOSES...RAIN SHOWERS AND LOWERING CIGS SHOULD IMPACT
TERMINAL SITES LATER MONDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING. AT
THIS TIME...IT APPEARS ANY RAIN WOULD BE DELAYED UNTIL AFTER 21Z
MONDAY AND CIGS FALLING BELOW 6K FT WOULD BE FAVORED AFTER 03Z
TUESDAY. CONFIDENCE IS FAIR THAT CIGS WILL BE MAINTAINED IN A 4K-6K
FT LAYER MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING.

SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA AND SOUTHWEST ARIZONA INCLUDING KIPL AND KBLH...

NO AVIATION IMPACTS THROUGH EARLY MONDAY MORNING WITH MOSTLY CLEAR
SKIES TODAY AND INCREASING CLOUDS TONIGHT. WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT
AND GENERALLY FAVOR A WESTERLY OR NORTHERLY DIRECTION.

AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDED TAFS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...
NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES EXPECTED THROUGH THE
PERIOD WITH WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY BEING THE WARMEST DAYS. FAIRLY
MOIST CONDITIONS WILL EXIST AS SOUTHERLY FLOW PERSISTS ACROSS
THE DESERT SOUTHWEST. AN EXITING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM EARLY TUESDAY
WILL BRING LINGERING RAIN CHANCES THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON...WHILE
ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO BRING MORE RAIN CHANCES
FOR THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH POSSIBLY SATURDAY. THE MOIST CONDITIONS
WILL ONLY LEAD TO MINIMUM HUMIDITIES EACH AFTERNOON IN THE 25 TO 45
PERCENT RANGE. WITH THE EXCEPTION OF SOME OCCASIONAL EARLY MORNING
OR AFTERNOON BREEZINESS...WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT THROUGH THE ENTIRE
PERIOD.

&&

.PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

AZ...NONE.

CA...NONE.

&&

$$

VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/PHOENIX

DISCUSSION...HIRSCH
AVIATION...KUHLMAN/CB
FIRE WEATHER...KUHLMAN










000
FXUS65 KPSR 251140
AFDPSR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PHOENIX AZ
440 AM MST SUN JAN 25 2015

.UPDATE...UPDATED AVIATION AND FIRE WEATHER DISCUSSIONS...

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
STRONG HIGH PRESSURE WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE WESTERN STATES
TODAY...RESULTING IN MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES AND WARM CONDITIONS. A LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA MONDAY...BRINGING AN
INCREASE IN MOISTURE AND LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS. IN ITS WAKE...ABOVE
NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND HIGHER THAN NORMAL HUMIDITIES WILL PREVAIL
THROUGH THE WEEK. ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BRING ADDITIONAL
MOISTURE AND ANOTHER CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION LATE IN THE WEEK
THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
LATEST STREAMLINE ANALYSIS SHOWS A LARGE ANTICYCLONE ACROSS NORTHERN
CALIFORNIA BUILDING SOUTHEASTWARD. FURTHER SOUTH...A CLOSED LOW
EVIDENT ON WV IMAGERY CONTINUES TO RETROGRADE WESTWARD FROM THE BAJA
PENINSULA. A COL REGION IS ALSO EVIDENT...WHICH IS DEFLECTING DEEPER
MOISTURE ACROSS NORTHERN MEXICO BOTH TO THE WEST AND EAST...BUT WITH
LITTLE PROGRESS NORTHWARD INTO CENTRAL AZ. MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES ARE
EXPECTED TODAY WITH WELL-ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE
REGION. INCREASING CIRRUS IS EXPECTED LATE IN THE DAY AS THE FLOW
VEERS AND THE MID-UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE FINALLY ADVECTS NORTHWARD.
SHORT-TERM TEMPERATURES ARE WEIGHTED HEAVILY TOWARDS A BLEND OF
BIAS-CORRECTED ECMWF AND SREF...WHICH HAVE BEEN RECENT TOP
PERFORMERS. FORECAST MAX OF 79 DEGREES IN PHOENIX WOULD STILL FALL A
FEW DEGREES SHORT OF THE RECORD OF 83 DEGREES SET IN 1951.

MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE THAT THE AFOREMENTIONED LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM WILL LIFT NORTHWARD BEGINNING TONIGHT...BRINGING WIDESPREAD
RAIN TO THE DESERT SOUTHWEST MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT. DEEP TROPICAL
MOISTURE WILL BE IN PLACE WITH PWATS BETWEEN 0.75 AND 1.25 INCHES
EQUATING TO STANDARDIZED ANOMALIES OF +2 TO +3. STRONGEST FORCING
FOR ASCENT CONTINUES TO TREND WESTWARD INTO CA. HOWEVER...ISENTROPIC
ASCENT AND MOISTURE TRANSPORT IN A MERIDIONAL FLOW WILL BE
SUFFICIENT TO PRODUCE THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL ACROSS PORTIONS OF AZ.
RAIN SHOWERS WILL GENERALLY TAPER OFF MONDAY NIGHT AS THE SYSTEM
WEAKENS AND SUBSIDENCE OVERSPREADS SOUTHERN AZ BEHIND THE TROUGH
AXIS.

THE HIGHEST RAIN TOTALS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS SOUTHWESTERN AZ WHERE
LOW-MID LEVEL THETA-E WILL BE MAXIMIZED. ACROSS YUMA COUNTY...A HALF
OF AN INCH OF RAIN IS POSSIBLE. ELSEWHERE...EXPECT GENERALLY BETWEEN
A QUARTER AND A HALF OF AN INCH OF PRECIPITATION. MODEL CONSENSUS
SUGGESTS RAIN TOTALS IN THE PHOENIX AREA WILL BE SOMEWHAT
LOWER...GENERALLY AROUND TWO TENTHS OF AN INCH.

THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL ACCELERATE NORTHWARD TUESDAY AS THE
RIDGE DRIFTS EASTWARD INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. MODEL CROSS-SECTIONS
INDICATE THAT LOW CLOUDS WILL BE PREVALENT IN THE MORNING...BEFORE
DISSIPATING IN THE AFTERNOON. LOCAL HI-RES WRFS ALSO SUGGEST THAT AN
ISOLATED SHOWER MAY BE POSSIBLE IN THE EARLY MORNING...PARTICULARLY
NORTH AND EAST OF PHOENIX.

ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND HIGHER THAN NORMAL HUMIDITIES WILL
PREVAIL THROUGH NEXT WEEK AS A RIDGE BECOMES REESTABLISHED TO OUR
SOUTH ACROSS MEXICO. ABUNDANT MID AND HIGH CLOUDS ARE ALSO EXPECTED
THROUGH THE WEEK. GLOBAL MODELS CONTINUE TO SUGGEST THAT ANOTHER
PACIFIC LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL AFFECT THE REGION LATE IN THE WEEK.
THIS SYSTEM APPEARS SLOWER THAN ITS PREDECESSOR AND HAS THE
POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE PRECIPITATION IN THE FRIDAY-SUNDAY TIME
FRAME...MAINLY ACROSS AZ. OFFICIAL FORECAST IS WEIGHTED TOWARDS THE
LATEST ECMWF...WHICH IS EXHIBITING RELATIVELY LOW ENSEMBLE SPREAD.
HOWEVER...PRECISE TIMING REMAINS UNCERTAIN AND CHANCE POPS HAVE BEEN
UTILIZED FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. THEREAFTER...MODEL CONSENSUS
SUGGESTS LOWER PROBABILITIES FOR SUNDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...
SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA INCLUDING KPHX...KIWA AND KSDL...

LITTLE TO NO AVIATION IMPACTS THROUGH EARLY MONDAY MORNING. INITIAL
CLEAR SKIES THIS MORNING WILL BECOME CLOUDY BY MONDAY MORNING AS
HIGH CLOUDS STREAM IN FROM THE SOUTH. BY 12Z MONDAY...CIGS SHOULD
LOWER TO AROUND 10K FEET. EASTERLY SFC WINDS WILL BE FAVORED FOR THE
ENTIRE PERIOD...ALTHOUGH WINDS MAY BECOME RATHER LIGHT/VARIABLE OR
EVEN LIGHT WEST LATER IN THE AFTERNOON SUNDAY...MORE SO AT KIWA THAN
KPHX.

FOR PLANNING PURPOSES...RAIN SHOWERS AND LOWERING CIGS SHOULD IMPACT
TERMINAL SITES LATER MONDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING. AT
THIS TIME...IT APPEARS ANY RAIN WOULD BE DELAYED UNTIL AFTER 21Z
MONDAY AND CIGS FALLING BELOW 6K FT WOULD BE FAVORED AFTER 03Z
TUESDAY. CONFIDENCE IS FAIR THAT CIGS WILL BE MAINTAINED IN A 4K-6K
FT LAYER MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING.

SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA AND SOUTHWEST ARIZONA INCLUDING KIPL AND KBLH...

NO AVIATION IMPACTS THROUGH EARLY MONDAY MORNING WITH MOSTLY CLEAR
SKIES TODAY AND INCREASING CLOUDS TONIGHT. WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT
AND GENERALLY FAVOR A WESTERLY OR NORTHERLY DIRECTION.

AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDED TAFS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...
NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES EXPECTED THROUGH THE
PERIOD WITH WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY BEING THE WARMEST DAYS. FAIRLY
MOIST CONDITIONS WILL EXIST AS SOUTHERLY FLOW PERSISTS ACROSS
THE DESERT SOUTHWEST. AN EXITING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM EARLY TUESDAY
WILL BRING LINGERING RAIN CHANCES THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON...WHILE
ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO BRING MORE RAIN CHANCES
FOR THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH POSSIBLY SATURDAY. THE MOIST CONDITIONS
WILL ONLY LEAD TO MINIMUM HUMIDITIES EACH AFTERNOON IN THE 25 TO 45
PERCENT RANGE. WITH THE EXCEPTION OF SOME OCCASIONAL EARLY MORNING
OR AFTERNOON BREEZINESS...WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT THROUGH THE ENTIRE
PERIOD.

&&

.PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

AZ...NONE.

CA...NONE.

&&

$$

VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/PHOENIX

DISCUSSION...HIRSCH
AVIATION...KUHLMAN/CB
FIRE WEATHER...KUHLMAN










000
FXUS65 KPSR 251140
AFDPSR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PHOENIX AZ
440 AM MST SUN JAN 25 2015

.UPDATE...UPDATED AVIATION AND FIRE WEATHER DISCUSSIONS...

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
STRONG HIGH PRESSURE WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE WESTERN STATES
TODAY...RESULTING IN MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES AND WARM CONDITIONS. A LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA MONDAY...BRINGING AN
INCREASE IN MOISTURE AND LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS. IN ITS WAKE...ABOVE
NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND HIGHER THAN NORMAL HUMIDITIES WILL PREVAIL
THROUGH THE WEEK. ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BRING ADDITIONAL
MOISTURE AND ANOTHER CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION LATE IN THE WEEK
THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
LATEST STREAMLINE ANALYSIS SHOWS A LARGE ANTICYCLONE ACROSS NORTHERN
CALIFORNIA BUILDING SOUTHEASTWARD. FURTHER SOUTH...A CLOSED LOW
EVIDENT ON WV IMAGERY CONTINUES TO RETROGRADE WESTWARD FROM THE BAJA
PENINSULA. A COL REGION IS ALSO EVIDENT...WHICH IS DEFLECTING DEEPER
MOISTURE ACROSS NORTHERN MEXICO BOTH TO THE WEST AND EAST...BUT WITH
LITTLE PROGRESS NORTHWARD INTO CENTRAL AZ. MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES ARE
EXPECTED TODAY WITH WELL-ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE
REGION. INCREASING CIRRUS IS EXPECTED LATE IN THE DAY AS THE FLOW
VEERS AND THE MID-UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE FINALLY ADVECTS NORTHWARD.
SHORT-TERM TEMPERATURES ARE WEIGHTED HEAVILY TOWARDS A BLEND OF
BIAS-CORRECTED ECMWF AND SREF...WHICH HAVE BEEN RECENT TOP
PERFORMERS. FORECAST MAX OF 79 DEGREES IN PHOENIX WOULD STILL FALL A
FEW DEGREES SHORT OF THE RECORD OF 83 DEGREES SET IN 1951.

MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE THAT THE AFOREMENTIONED LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM WILL LIFT NORTHWARD BEGINNING TONIGHT...BRINGING WIDESPREAD
RAIN TO THE DESERT SOUTHWEST MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT. DEEP TROPICAL
MOISTURE WILL BE IN PLACE WITH PWATS BETWEEN 0.75 AND 1.25 INCHES
EQUATING TO STANDARDIZED ANOMALIES OF +2 TO +3. STRONGEST FORCING
FOR ASCENT CONTINUES TO TREND WESTWARD INTO CA. HOWEVER...ISENTROPIC
ASCENT AND MOISTURE TRANSPORT IN A MERIDIONAL FLOW WILL BE
SUFFICIENT TO PRODUCE THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL ACROSS PORTIONS OF AZ.
RAIN SHOWERS WILL GENERALLY TAPER OFF MONDAY NIGHT AS THE SYSTEM
WEAKENS AND SUBSIDENCE OVERSPREADS SOUTHERN AZ BEHIND THE TROUGH
AXIS.

THE HIGHEST RAIN TOTALS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS SOUTHWESTERN AZ WHERE
LOW-MID LEVEL THETA-E WILL BE MAXIMIZED. ACROSS YUMA COUNTY...A HALF
OF AN INCH OF RAIN IS POSSIBLE. ELSEWHERE...EXPECT GENERALLY BETWEEN
A QUARTER AND A HALF OF AN INCH OF PRECIPITATION. MODEL CONSENSUS
SUGGESTS RAIN TOTALS IN THE PHOENIX AREA WILL BE SOMEWHAT
LOWER...GENERALLY AROUND TWO TENTHS OF AN INCH.

THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL ACCELERATE NORTHWARD TUESDAY AS THE
RIDGE DRIFTS EASTWARD INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. MODEL CROSS-SECTIONS
INDICATE THAT LOW CLOUDS WILL BE PREVALENT IN THE MORNING...BEFORE
DISSIPATING IN THE AFTERNOON. LOCAL HI-RES WRFS ALSO SUGGEST THAT AN
ISOLATED SHOWER MAY BE POSSIBLE IN THE EARLY MORNING...PARTICULARLY
NORTH AND EAST OF PHOENIX.

ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND HIGHER THAN NORMAL HUMIDITIES WILL
PREVAIL THROUGH NEXT WEEK AS A RIDGE BECOMES REESTABLISHED TO OUR
SOUTH ACROSS MEXICO. ABUNDANT MID AND HIGH CLOUDS ARE ALSO EXPECTED
THROUGH THE WEEK. GLOBAL MODELS CONTINUE TO SUGGEST THAT ANOTHER
PACIFIC LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL AFFECT THE REGION LATE IN THE WEEK.
THIS SYSTEM APPEARS SLOWER THAN ITS PREDECESSOR AND HAS THE
POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE PRECIPITATION IN THE FRIDAY-SUNDAY TIME
FRAME...MAINLY ACROSS AZ. OFFICIAL FORECAST IS WEIGHTED TOWARDS THE
LATEST ECMWF...WHICH IS EXHIBITING RELATIVELY LOW ENSEMBLE SPREAD.
HOWEVER...PRECISE TIMING REMAINS UNCERTAIN AND CHANCE POPS HAVE BEEN
UTILIZED FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. THEREAFTER...MODEL CONSENSUS
SUGGESTS LOWER PROBABILITIES FOR SUNDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...
SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA INCLUDING KPHX...KIWA AND KSDL...

LITTLE TO NO AVIATION IMPACTS THROUGH EARLY MONDAY MORNING. INITIAL
CLEAR SKIES THIS MORNING WILL BECOME CLOUDY BY MONDAY MORNING AS
HIGH CLOUDS STREAM IN FROM THE SOUTH. BY 12Z MONDAY...CIGS SHOULD
LOWER TO AROUND 10K FEET. EASTERLY SFC WINDS WILL BE FAVORED FOR THE
ENTIRE PERIOD...ALTHOUGH WINDS MAY BECOME RATHER LIGHT/VARIABLE OR
EVEN LIGHT WEST LATER IN THE AFTERNOON SUNDAY...MORE SO AT KIWA THAN
KPHX.

FOR PLANNING PURPOSES...RAIN SHOWERS AND LOWERING CIGS SHOULD IMPACT
TERMINAL SITES LATER MONDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING. AT
THIS TIME...IT APPEARS ANY RAIN WOULD BE DELAYED UNTIL AFTER 21Z
MONDAY AND CIGS FALLING BELOW 6K FT WOULD BE FAVORED AFTER 03Z
TUESDAY. CONFIDENCE IS FAIR THAT CIGS WILL BE MAINTAINED IN A 4K-6K
FT LAYER MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING.

SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA AND SOUTHWEST ARIZONA INCLUDING KIPL AND KBLH...

NO AVIATION IMPACTS THROUGH EARLY MONDAY MORNING WITH MOSTLY CLEAR
SKIES TODAY AND INCREASING CLOUDS TONIGHT. WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT
AND GENERALLY FAVOR A WESTERLY OR NORTHERLY DIRECTION.

AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDED TAFS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...
NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES EXPECTED THROUGH THE
PERIOD WITH WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY BEING THE WARMEST DAYS. FAIRLY
MOIST CONDITIONS WILL EXIST AS SOUTHERLY FLOW PERSISTS ACROSS
THE DESERT SOUTHWEST. AN EXITING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM EARLY TUESDAY
WILL BRING LINGERING RAIN CHANCES THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON...WHILE
ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO BRING MORE RAIN CHANCES
FOR THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH POSSIBLY SATURDAY. THE MOIST CONDITIONS
WILL ONLY LEAD TO MINIMUM HUMIDITIES EACH AFTERNOON IN THE 25 TO 45
PERCENT RANGE. WITH THE EXCEPTION OF SOME OCCASIONAL EARLY MORNING
OR AFTERNOON BREEZINESS...WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT THROUGH THE ENTIRE
PERIOD.

&&

.PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

AZ...NONE.

CA...NONE.

&&

$$

VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/PHOENIX

DISCUSSION...HIRSCH
AVIATION...KUHLMAN/CB
FIRE WEATHER...KUHLMAN









  [top]

000
FXUS65 KFGZ 251100
AFDFGZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ
355 AM MST SUN JAN 25 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
EXPECT DRY AND RELATIVELY MILD WEATHER ACROSS NORTHERN ARIZONA
TODAY. STARTING MONDAY...A SUB-TROPICAL AIRMASS WILL MOVE INTO
ARIZONA...RESULTING IN PERIODS OF MAINLY RAIN SHOWERS FROM LATE
MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. FAIR WEATHER RETURNS WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY
BEFORE ANOTHER CHANCE OF SHOWERS ARRIVES THURSDAY NIGHT INTO THE
WEEKEND.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
A RIDGE CENTERED OVER NORTHERN CALIFORNIA THIS MORNING WILL KEEP
ARIZONA IN A MILD NORTHEAST FLOW TODAY. AREAS SOUTH OF THE MOGOLLON
RIM WILL BECOME QUITE WARM (AROUND 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL)...AS
NORTHEAST FLOW IS DOWNSLOPE FOR THESE LOCATIONS. ALONG AND NORTH OF
THE RIM...DAYTIME TEMPS WILL BE 4-8 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL...THOUGH
GUSTY NORTHEAST WINDS WILL MAKE IT FEEL COOLER IN SOME AREAS
INCLUDING FLAGSTAFF. SKIES WILL REMAIN CLEAR.

MEANWHILE TO OUR SOUTH...A CLOSED LOW IS BOTTOMING OUT JUST WEST OF
THE BAJA SPUR. THIS LOW IS FORECAST TO SHIFT NORTHWARD AS THE WEST
COAST RIDGE MOVES INLAND. THE FLOW OVER ARIZONA TURNS SOUTHERLY AND
A SURGE OF SUB-TROPICAL MOISTURE WILL AFFECT OUR AREA MONDAY EVENING
THROUGH TUESDAY. RAIN SHOWERS ARE LIKELY WITH THE BEST CHANCES
MONDAY NIGHT...GRADUALLY DECREASING DURING THE DAY TUESDAY. THIS
WILL BE A MILD SYSTEM WITH SNOW ONLY AT THE HIGHEST ELEVATIONS...
MAINLY ABOVE 8500-9000 FEET. RAINFALL AMOUNTS SHOULD BE LIGHT TO
MODERATE...GENERALLY A QUARTER TO HALF INCH ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE
MOGOLLON RIM...LIGHTER AMOUNTS NORTH OF THE RIM. FAIR WEATHER IS
FORECAST TO RETURN WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...WITH SLIGHTLY ABOVE
NORMAL TEMPERATURES. LONGER RANGE MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW ANOTHER
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM SETTING UP IN A SIMILAR LOCATION OFF THE COAST
OF BAJA FROM FRIDAY THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND...SENDING ANOTHER SURGE OF
DEEPER MOISTURE NORTHWARD INTO ARIZONA. A CHANCE OF SHOWERS REMAINS
IN THE FORECAST FROM FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY. EARLY INDICATIONS ARE
FOR SNOW LEVELS A BIT LOWER WITH THIS NEXT SYSTEM...OUR CURRENT
FORECASTS ARE IN THE 7000-8000 FOOT RANGE THOUGH THIS REMAINS
UNCERTAIN...STAY TUNED FOR UPDATES.


&&

.AVIATION...
FOR THE 12Z PACKAGE...VFR CONDITIONS FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS UNDER
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES. SURFACE WINDS N-NE 10G20KT ALONG AND SOUTHWEST
OF THE MOGOLLON RIM...LIGHT AND VARIABLE ELSEWHERE. AVIATION
DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR TAF AMENDMENTS.

&&

.FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC.....JJ
AVIATION...DL

FOR NORTHERN ARIZONA WEATHER INFORMATION VISIT
WEATHER.GOV/FLAGSTAFF




000
FXUS65 KFGZ 251100
AFDFGZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ
355 AM MST SUN JAN 25 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
EXPECT DRY AND RELATIVELY MILD WEATHER ACROSS NORTHERN ARIZONA
TODAY. STARTING MONDAY...A SUB-TROPICAL AIRMASS WILL MOVE INTO
ARIZONA...RESULTING IN PERIODS OF MAINLY RAIN SHOWERS FROM LATE
MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. FAIR WEATHER RETURNS WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY
BEFORE ANOTHER CHANCE OF SHOWERS ARRIVES THURSDAY NIGHT INTO THE
WEEKEND.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
A RIDGE CENTERED OVER NORTHERN CALIFORNIA THIS MORNING WILL KEEP
ARIZONA IN A MILD NORTHEAST FLOW TODAY. AREAS SOUTH OF THE MOGOLLON
RIM WILL BECOME QUITE WARM (AROUND 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL)...AS
NORTHEAST FLOW IS DOWNSLOPE FOR THESE LOCATIONS. ALONG AND NORTH OF
THE RIM...DAYTIME TEMPS WILL BE 4-8 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL...THOUGH
GUSTY NORTHEAST WINDS WILL MAKE IT FEEL COOLER IN SOME AREAS
INCLUDING FLAGSTAFF. SKIES WILL REMAIN CLEAR.

MEANWHILE TO OUR SOUTH...A CLOSED LOW IS BOTTOMING OUT JUST WEST OF
THE BAJA SPUR. THIS LOW IS FORECAST TO SHIFT NORTHWARD AS THE WEST
COAST RIDGE MOVES INLAND. THE FLOW OVER ARIZONA TURNS SOUTHERLY AND
A SURGE OF SUB-TROPICAL MOISTURE WILL AFFECT OUR AREA MONDAY EVENING
THROUGH TUESDAY. RAIN SHOWERS ARE LIKELY WITH THE BEST CHANCES
MONDAY NIGHT...GRADUALLY DECREASING DURING THE DAY TUESDAY. THIS
WILL BE A MILD SYSTEM WITH SNOW ONLY AT THE HIGHEST ELEVATIONS...
MAINLY ABOVE 8500-9000 FEET. RAINFALL AMOUNTS SHOULD BE LIGHT TO
MODERATE...GENERALLY A QUARTER TO HALF INCH ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE
MOGOLLON RIM...LIGHTER AMOUNTS NORTH OF THE RIM. FAIR WEATHER IS
FORECAST TO RETURN WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...WITH SLIGHTLY ABOVE
NORMAL TEMPERATURES. LONGER RANGE MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW ANOTHER
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM SETTING UP IN A SIMILAR LOCATION OFF THE COAST
OF BAJA FROM FRIDAY THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND...SENDING ANOTHER SURGE OF
DEEPER MOISTURE NORTHWARD INTO ARIZONA. A CHANCE OF SHOWERS REMAINS
IN THE FORECAST FROM FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY. EARLY INDICATIONS ARE
FOR SNOW LEVELS A BIT LOWER WITH THIS NEXT SYSTEM...OUR CURRENT
FORECASTS ARE IN THE 7000-8000 FOOT RANGE THOUGH THIS REMAINS
UNCERTAIN...STAY TUNED FOR UPDATES.


&&

.AVIATION...
FOR THE 12Z PACKAGE...VFR CONDITIONS FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS UNDER
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES. SURFACE WINDS N-NE 10G20KT ALONG AND SOUTHWEST
OF THE MOGOLLON RIM...LIGHT AND VARIABLE ELSEWHERE. AVIATION
DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR TAF AMENDMENTS.

&&

.FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC.....JJ
AVIATION...DL

FOR NORTHERN ARIZONA WEATHER INFORMATION VISIT
WEATHER.GOV/FLAGSTAFF





000
FXUS65 KPSR 251024
AFDPSR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PHOENIX AZ
325 AM MST SAT JAN 24 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
STRONG HIGH PRESSURE WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE WESTERN STATES
TODAY...RESULTING IN MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES AND WARM CONDITIONS. A LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA MONDAY...BRINGING AN
INCREASE IN MOISTURE AND LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS. IN ITS WAKE...ABOVE
NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND HIGHER THAN NORMAL HUMIDITIES WILL PREVAIL
THROUGH THE WEEK. ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BRING ADDITIONAL
MOISTURE AND ANOTHER CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION LATE IN THE WEEK
THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
LATEST STREAMLINE ANALYSIS SHOWS A LARGE ANTICYCLONE ACROSS NORTHERN
CALIFORNIA BUILDING SOUTHEASTWARD. FURTHER SOUTH...A CLOSED LOW
EVIDENT ON WV IMAGERY CONTINUES TO RETROGRADE WESTWARD FROM THE BAJA
PENINSULA. A COL REGION IS ALSO EVIDENT...WHICH IS DEFLECTING DEEPER
MOISTURE ACROSS NORTHERN MEXICO BOTH TO THE WEST AND EAST...BUT WITH
LITTLE PROGRESS NORTHWARD INTO CENTRAL AZ. MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES ARE
EXPECTED TODAY WITH WELL-ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE
REGION. INCREASING CIRRUS IS EXPECTED LATE IN THE DAY AS THE FLOW
VEERS AND THE MID-UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE FINALLY ADVECTS NORTHWARD.
SHORT-TERM TEMPERATURES ARE WEIGHTED HEAVILY TOWARDS A BLEND OF
BIAS-CORRECTED ECMWF AND SREF...WHICH HAVE BEEN RECENT TOP
PERFORMERS. FORECAST MAX OF 79 DEGREES IN PHOENIX WOULD STILL FALL A
FEW DEGREES SHORT OF THE RECORD OF 83 DEGREES SET IN 1951.

MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE THAT THE AFOREMENTIONED LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM WILL LIFT NORTHWARD BEGINNING TONIGHT...BRINGING WIDESPREAD
RAIN TO THE DESERT SOUTHWEST MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT. DEEP TROPICAL
MOISTURE WILL BE IN PLACE WITH PWATS BETWEEN 0.75 AND 1.25 INCHES
EQUATING TO STANDARDIZED ANOMALIES OF +2 TO +3. STRONGEST FORCING
FOR ASCENT CONTINUES TO TREND WESTWARD INTO CA. HOWEVER...ISENTROPIC
ASCENT AND MOISTURE TRANSPORT IN A MERIDIONAL FLOW WILL BE
SUFFICIENT TO PRODUCE THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL ACROSS PORTIONS OF AZ.
RAIN SHOWERS WILL GENERALLY TAPER OFF MONDAY NIGHT AS THE SYSTEM
WEAKENS AND SUBSIDENCE OVERSPREADS SOUTHERN AZ BEHIND THE TROUGH
AXIS.

THE HIGHEST RAIN TOTALS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS SOUTHWESTERN AZ WHERE
LOW-MID LEVEL THETA-E WILL BE MAXIMIZED. ACROSS YUMA COUNTY...A HALF
OF AN INCH OF RAIN IS POSSIBLE. ELSEWHERE...EXPECT GENERALLY BETWEEN
A QUARTER AND A HALF OF AN INCH OF PRECIPITATION. MODEL CONSENSUS
SUGGESTS RAIN TOTALS IN THE PHOENIX AREA WILL BE SOMEWHAT
LOWER...GENERALLY AROUND TWO TENTHS OF AN INCH.

THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL ACCELERATE NORTHWARD TUESDAY AS THE
RIDGE DRIFTS EASTWARD INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. MODEL CROSS-SECTIONS
INDICATE THAT LOW CLOUDS WILL BE PREVALENT IN THE MORNING...BEFORE
DISSIPATING IN THE AFTERNOON. LOCAL HI-RES WRFS ALSO SUGGEST THAT AN
ISOLATED SHOWER MAY BE POSSIBLE IN THE EARLY MORNING...PARTICULARLY
NORTH AND EAST OF PHOENIX.

ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND HIGHER THAN NORMAL HUMIDITIES WILL
PREVAIL THROUGH NEXT WEEK AS A RIDGE BECOMES REESTABLISHED TO OUR
SOUTH ACROSS MEXICO. ABUNDANT MID AND HIGH CLOUDS ARE ALSO EXPECTED
THROUGH THE WEEK. GLOBAL MODELS CONTINUE TO SUGGEST THAT ANOTHER
PACIFIC LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL AFFECT THE REGION LATE IN THE WEEK.
THIS SYSTEM APPEARS SLOWER THAN ITS PREDECESSOR AND HAS THE
POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE PRECIPITATION IN THE FRIDAY-SUNDAY TIME
FRAME...MAINLY ACROSS AZ. OFFICIAL FORECAST IS WEIGHTED TOWARDS THE
LATEST ECMWF...WHICH IS EXHIBITING RELATIVELY LOW ENSEMBLE SPREAD.
HOWEVER...PRECISE TIMING REMAINS UNCERTAIN AND CHANCE POPS HAVE BEEN
UTILIZED FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. THEREAFTER...MODEL CONSENSUS
SUGGESTS LOWER PROBABILITIES FOR SUNDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...
SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA INCLUDING KPHX...KIWA AND KSDL...

LITTLE TO NO AVIATION IMPACTS THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING UNDER MOSTLY
CLEAR SKIES. EASTERLY SFC WINDS WILL BE FAVORED FOR THE ENTIRE
PERIOD...ALTHOUGH WINDS MAY BECOME RATHER LIGHT/VARIABLE OR EVEN
LIGHT WEST LATER IN THE AFTERNOON SUNDAY...MORESO AT KIWA THAN
KPHX.

FOR PLANNING PURPOSES...RAIN SHOWERS AND LOWERING CIGS SHOULD IMPACT
TERMINAL SITES LATER MONDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING. AT
THIS TIME...IT APPEARS ANY RAIN WOULD BE DELAYED UNTIL AFTER 21Z
MONDAY AND CIGS FALLING BELOW 6K FT WOULD BE FAVORED AFTER 00Z.
CONFIDENCE IS FAIR THAT CIGS WILL BE MAINTAINED IN A 4K-6K FT LAYER
MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING.

SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA AND SOUTHWEST ARIZONA INCLUDING KIPL AND KBLH...

VERY LITTLE AVIATION IMPACTS THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON WITH MOSTLY
CLEAR SKIES. WINDS WILL STILL FAVOR THE NORTH TO NORTHEAST AT KBLH
NEXT 24 HOURS WITH SPEEDS MOSTLY AOB 12KT.

AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDED TAFS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL PERSIST THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD AS
SOUTHERLY FLOW TAKES HOLD ACROSS THE DESERT SOUTHWEST. A LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE NORTHWARD OFF THE COAST OF BAJA AND
CALIFORNIA BRINGING GOOD CHANCES FOR RAIN ON MONDAY INTO EARLY
TUESDAY. FAIRLY MOIST CONDITIONS WILL ONLY LEAD TO MINIMUM
HUMIDITIES EACH AFTERNOON IN THE 25 TO 35 PERCENT RANGE ACROSS THE
LOWER DESERTS. WITH THE EXCEPTION OF SOME OCCASIONAL AFTERNOON
BREEZINESS...WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT THROUGH THE ENTIRE PERIOD.

&&

.PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

AZ...NONE.

CA...NONE.

&&

$$

VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/PHOENIX

DISCUSSION...HIRSCH
AVIATION...MO/CB
FIRE WEATHER...KUHLMAN






000
FXUS65 KPSR 251024
AFDPSR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PHOENIX AZ
325 AM MST SAT JAN 24 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
STRONG HIGH PRESSURE WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE WESTERN STATES
TODAY...RESULTING IN MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES AND WARM CONDITIONS. A LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA MONDAY...BRINGING AN
INCREASE IN MOISTURE AND LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS. IN ITS WAKE...ABOVE
NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND HIGHER THAN NORMAL HUMIDITIES WILL PREVAIL
THROUGH THE WEEK. ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BRING ADDITIONAL
MOISTURE AND ANOTHER CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION LATE IN THE WEEK
THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
LATEST STREAMLINE ANALYSIS SHOWS A LARGE ANTICYCLONE ACROSS NORTHERN
CALIFORNIA BUILDING SOUTHEASTWARD. FURTHER SOUTH...A CLOSED LOW
EVIDENT ON WV IMAGERY CONTINUES TO RETROGRADE WESTWARD FROM THE BAJA
PENINSULA. A COL REGION IS ALSO EVIDENT...WHICH IS DEFLECTING DEEPER
MOISTURE ACROSS NORTHERN MEXICO BOTH TO THE WEST AND EAST...BUT WITH
LITTLE PROGRESS NORTHWARD INTO CENTRAL AZ. MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES ARE
EXPECTED TODAY WITH WELL-ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE
REGION. INCREASING CIRRUS IS EXPECTED LATE IN THE DAY AS THE FLOW
VEERS AND THE MID-UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE FINALLY ADVECTS NORTHWARD.
SHORT-TERM TEMPERATURES ARE WEIGHTED HEAVILY TOWARDS A BLEND OF
BIAS-CORRECTED ECMWF AND SREF...WHICH HAVE BEEN RECENT TOP
PERFORMERS. FORECAST MAX OF 79 DEGREES IN PHOENIX WOULD STILL FALL A
FEW DEGREES SHORT OF THE RECORD OF 83 DEGREES SET IN 1951.

MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE THAT THE AFOREMENTIONED LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM WILL LIFT NORTHWARD BEGINNING TONIGHT...BRINGING WIDESPREAD
RAIN TO THE DESERT SOUTHWEST MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT. DEEP TROPICAL
MOISTURE WILL BE IN PLACE WITH PWATS BETWEEN 0.75 AND 1.25 INCHES
EQUATING TO STANDARDIZED ANOMALIES OF +2 TO +3. STRONGEST FORCING
FOR ASCENT CONTINUES TO TREND WESTWARD INTO CA. HOWEVER...ISENTROPIC
ASCENT AND MOISTURE TRANSPORT IN A MERIDIONAL FLOW WILL BE
SUFFICIENT TO PRODUCE THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL ACROSS PORTIONS OF AZ.
RAIN SHOWERS WILL GENERALLY TAPER OFF MONDAY NIGHT AS THE SYSTEM
WEAKENS AND SUBSIDENCE OVERSPREADS SOUTHERN AZ BEHIND THE TROUGH
AXIS.

THE HIGHEST RAIN TOTALS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS SOUTHWESTERN AZ WHERE
LOW-MID LEVEL THETA-E WILL BE MAXIMIZED. ACROSS YUMA COUNTY...A HALF
OF AN INCH OF RAIN IS POSSIBLE. ELSEWHERE...EXPECT GENERALLY BETWEEN
A QUARTER AND A HALF OF AN INCH OF PRECIPITATION. MODEL CONSENSUS
SUGGESTS RAIN TOTALS IN THE PHOENIX AREA WILL BE SOMEWHAT
LOWER...GENERALLY AROUND TWO TENTHS OF AN INCH.

THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL ACCELERATE NORTHWARD TUESDAY AS THE
RIDGE DRIFTS EASTWARD INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. MODEL CROSS-SECTIONS
INDICATE THAT LOW CLOUDS WILL BE PREVALENT IN THE MORNING...BEFORE
DISSIPATING IN THE AFTERNOON. LOCAL HI-RES WRFS ALSO SUGGEST THAT AN
ISOLATED SHOWER MAY BE POSSIBLE IN THE EARLY MORNING...PARTICULARLY
NORTH AND EAST OF PHOENIX.

ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND HIGHER THAN NORMAL HUMIDITIES WILL
PREVAIL THROUGH NEXT WEEK AS A RIDGE BECOMES REESTABLISHED TO OUR
SOUTH ACROSS MEXICO. ABUNDANT MID AND HIGH CLOUDS ARE ALSO EXPECTED
THROUGH THE WEEK. GLOBAL MODELS CONTINUE TO SUGGEST THAT ANOTHER
PACIFIC LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL AFFECT THE REGION LATE IN THE WEEK.
THIS SYSTEM APPEARS SLOWER THAN ITS PREDECESSOR AND HAS THE
POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE PRECIPITATION IN THE FRIDAY-SUNDAY TIME
FRAME...MAINLY ACROSS AZ. OFFICIAL FORECAST IS WEIGHTED TOWARDS THE
LATEST ECMWF...WHICH IS EXHIBITING RELATIVELY LOW ENSEMBLE SPREAD.
HOWEVER...PRECISE TIMING REMAINS UNCERTAIN AND CHANCE POPS HAVE BEEN
UTILIZED FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. THEREAFTER...MODEL CONSENSUS
SUGGESTS LOWER PROBABILITIES FOR SUNDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...
SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA INCLUDING KPHX...KIWA AND KSDL...

LITTLE TO NO AVIATION IMPACTS THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING UNDER MOSTLY
CLEAR SKIES. EASTERLY SFC WINDS WILL BE FAVORED FOR THE ENTIRE
PERIOD...ALTHOUGH WINDS MAY BECOME RATHER LIGHT/VARIABLE OR EVEN
LIGHT WEST LATER IN THE AFTERNOON SUNDAY...MORESO AT KIWA THAN
KPHX.

FOR PLANNING PURPOSES...RAIN SHOWERS AND LOWERING CIGS SHOULD IMPACT
TERMINAL SITES LATER MONDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING. AT
THIS TIME...IT APPEARS ANY RAIN WOULD BE DELAYED UNTIL AFTER 21Z
MONDAY AND CIGS FALLING BELOW 6K FT WOULD BE FAVORED AFTER 00Z.
CONFIDENCE IS FAIR THAT CIGS WILL BE MAINTAINED IN A 4K-6K FT LAYER
MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING.

SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA AND SOUTHWEST ARIZONA INCLUDING KIPL AND KBLH...

VERY LITTLE AVIATION IMPACTS THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON WITH MOSTLY
CLEAR SKIES. WINDS WILL STILL FAVOR THE NORTH TO NORTHEAST AT KBLH
NEXT 24 HOURS WITH SPEEDS MOSTLY AOB 12KT.

AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDED TAFS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL PERSIST THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD AS
SOUTHERLY FLOW TAKES HOLD ACROSS THE DESERT SOUTHWEST. A LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE NORTHWARD OFF THE COAST OF BAJA AND
CALIFORNIA BRINGING GOOD CHANCES FOR RAIN ON MONDAY INTO EARLY
TUESDAY. FAIRLY MOIST CONDITIONS WILL ONLY LEAD TO MINIMUM
HUMIDITIES EACH AFTERNOON IN THE 25 TO 35 PERCENT RANGE ACROSS THE
LOWER DESERTS. WITH THE EXCEPTION OF SOME OCCASIONAL AFTERNOON
BREEZINESS...WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT THROUGH THE ENTIRE PERIOD.

&&

.PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

AZ...NONE.

CA...NONE.

&&

$$

VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/PHOENIX

DISCUSSION...HIRSCH
AVIATION...MO/CB
FIRE WEATHER...KUHLMAN





000
FXUS65 KPSR 251024 CCA
AFDPSR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PHOENIX AZ
325 AM MST SUN JAN 25 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
STRONG HIGH PRESSURE WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE WESTERN STATES
TODAY...RESULTING IN MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES AND WARM CONDITIONS. A LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA MONDAY...BRINGING AN
INCREASE IN MOISTURE AND LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS. IN ITS WAKE...ABOVE
NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND HIGHER THAN NORMAL HUMIDITIES WILL PREVAIL
THROUGH THE WEEK. ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BRING ADDITIONAL
MOISTURE AND ANOTHER CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION LATE IN THE WEEK
THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
LATEST STREAMLINE ANALYSIS SHOWS A LARGE ANTICYCLONE ACROSS NORTHERN
CALIFORNIA BUILDING SOUTHEASTWARD. FURTHER SOUTH...A CLOSED LOW
EVIDENT ON WV IMAGERY CONTINUES TO RETROGRADE WESTWARD FROM THE BAJA
PENINSULA. A COL REGION IS ALSO EVIDENT...WHICH IS DEFLECTING DEEPER
MOISTURE ACROSS NORTHERN MEXICO BOTH TO THE WEST AND EAST...BUT WITH
LITTLE PROGRESS NORTHWARD INTO CENTRAL AZ. MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES ARE
EXPECTED TODAY WITH WELL-ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE
REGION. INCREASING CIRRUS IS EXPECTED LATE IN THE DAY AS THE FLOW
VEERS AND THE MID-UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE FINALLY ADVECTS NORTHWARD.
SHORT-TERM TEMPERATURES ARE WEIGHTED HEAVILY TOWARDS A BLEND OF
BIAS-CORRECTED ECMWF AND SREF...WHICH HAVE BEEN RECENT TOP
PERFORMERS. FORECAST MAX OF 79 DEGREES IN PHOENIX WOULD STILL FALL A
FEW DEGREES SHORT OF THE RECORD OF 83 DEGREES SET IN 1951.

MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE THAT THE AFOREMENTIONED LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM WILL LIFT NORTHWARD BEGINNING TONIGHT...BRINGING WIDESPREAD
RAIN TO THE DESERT SOUTHWEST MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT. DEEP TROPICAL
MOISTURE WILL BE IN PLACE WITH PWATS BETWEEN 0.75 AND 1.25 INCHES
EQUATING TO STANDARDIZED ANOMALIES OF +2 TO +3. STRONGEST FORCING
FOR ASCENT CONTINUES TO TREND WESTWARD INTO CA. HOWEVER...ISENTROPIC
ASCENT AND MOISTURE TRANSPORT IN A MERIDIONAL FLOW WILL BE
SUFFICIENT TO PRODUCE THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL ACROSS PORTIONS OF AZ.
RAIN SHOWERS WILL GENERALLY TAPER OFF MONDAY NIGHT AS THE SYSTEM
WEAKENS AND SUBSIDENCE OVERSPREADS SOUTHERN AZ BEHIND THE TROUGH
AXIS.

THE HIGHEST RAIN TOTALS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS SOUTHWESTERN AZ WHERE
LOW-MID LEVEL THETA-E WILL BE MAXIMIZED. ACROSS YUMA COUNTY...A HALF
OF AN INCH OF RAIN IS POSSIBLE. ELSEWHERE...EXPECT GENERALLY BETWEEN
A QUARTER AND A HALF OF AN INCH OF PRECIPITATION. MODEL CONSENSUS
SUGGESTS RAIN TOTALS IN THE PHOENIX AREA WILL BE SOMEWHAT
LOWER...GENERALLY AROUND TWO TENTHS OF AN INCH.

THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL ACCELERATE NORTHWARD TUESDAY AS THE
RIDGE DRIFTS EASTWARD INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. MODEL CROSS-SECTIONS
INDICATE THAT LOW CLOUDS WILL BE PREVALENT IN THE MORNING...BEFORE
DISSIPATING IN THE AFTERNOON. LOCAL HI-RES WRFS ALSO SUGGEST THAT AN
ISOLATED SHOWER MAY BE POSSIBLE IN THE EARLY MORNING...PARTICULARLY
NORTH AND EAST OF PHOENIX.

ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND HIGHER THAN NORMAL HUMIDITIES WILL
PREVAIL THROUGH NEXT WEEK AS A RIDGE BECOMES REESTABLISHED TO OUR
SOUTH ACROSS MEXICO. ABUNDANT MID AND HIGH CLOUDS ARE ALSO EXPECTED
THROUGH THE WEEK. GLOBAL MODELS CONTINUE TO SUGGEST THAT ANOTHER
PACIFIC LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL AFFECT THE REGION LATE IN THE WEEK.
THIS SYSTEM APPEARS SLOWER THAN ITS PREDECESSOR AND HAS THE
POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE PRECIPITATION IN THE FRIDAY-SUNDAY TIME
FRAME...MAINLY ACROSS AZ. OFFICIAL FORECAST IS WEIGHTED TOWARDS THE
LATEST ECMWF...WHICH IS EXHIBITING RELATIVELY LOW ENSEMBLE SPREAD.
HOWEVER...PRECISE TIMING REMAINS UNCERTAIN AND CHANCE POPS HAVE BEEN
UTILIZED FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. THEREAFTER...MODEL CONSENSUS
SUGGESTS LOWER PROBABILITIES FOR SUNDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...
SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA INCLUDING KPHX...KIWA AND KSDL...

LITTLE TO NO AVIATION IMPACTS THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING UNDER MOSTLY
CLEAR SKIES. EASTERLY SFC WINDS WILL BE FAVORED FOR THE ENTIRE
PERIOD...ALTHOUGH WINDS MAY BECOME RATHER LIGHT/VARIABLE OR EVEN
LIGHT WEST LATER IN THE AFTERNOON SUNDAY...MORESO AT KIWA THAN
KPHX.

FOR PLANNING PURPOSES...RAIN SHOWERS AND LOWERING CIGS SHOULD IMPACT
TERMINAL SITES LATER MONDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING. AT
THIS TIME...IT APPEARS ANY RAIN WOULD BE DELAYED UNTIL AFTER 21Z
MONDAY AND CIGS FALLING BELOW 6K FT WOULD BE FAVORED AFTER 00Z.
CONFIDENCE IS FAIR THAT CIGS WILL BE MAINTAINED IN A 4K-6K FT LAYER
MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING.

SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA AND SOUTHWEST ARIZONA INCLUDING KIPL AND KBLH...

VERY LITTLE AVIATION IMPACTS THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON WITH MOSTLY
CLEAR SKIES. WINDS WILL STILL FAVOR THE NORTH TO NORTHEAST AT KBLH
NEXT 24 HOURS WITH SPEEDS MOSTLY AOB 12KT.

AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDED TAFS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL PERSIST THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD AS
SOUTHERLY FLOW TAKES HOLD ACROSS THE DESERT SOUTHWEST. A LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE NORTHWARD OFF THE COAST OF BAJA AND
CALIFORNIA BRINGING GOOD CHANCES FOR RAIN ON MONDAY INTO EARLY
TUESDAY. FAIRLY MOIST CONDITIONS WILL ONLY LEAD TO MINIMUM
HUMIDITIES EACH AFTERNOON IN THE 25 TO 35 PERCENT RANGE ACROSS THE
LOWER DESERTS. WITH THE EXCEPTION OF SOME OCCASIONAL AFTERNOON
BREEZINESS...WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT THROUGH THE ENTIRE PERIOD.

&&

.PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

AZ...NONE.

CA...NONE.

&&

$$

VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/PHOENIX

DISCUSSION...HIRSCH
AVIATION...MO/CB
FIRE WEATHER...KUHLMAN







000
FXUS65 KPSR 251024 CCA
AFDPSR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PHOENIX AZ
325 AM MST SUN JAN 25 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
STRONG HIGH PRESSURE WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE WESTERN STATES
TODAY...RESULTING IN MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES AND WARM CONDITIONS. A LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA MONDAY...BRINGING AN
INCREASE IN MOISTURE AND LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS. IN ITS WAKE...ABOVE
NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND HIGHER THAN NORMAL HUMIDITIES WILL PREVAIL
THROUGH THE WEEK. ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BRING ADDITIONAL
MOISTURE AND ANOTHER CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION LATE IN THE WEEK
THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
LATEST STREAMLINE ANALYSIS SHOWS A LARGE ANTICYCLONE ACROSS NORTHERN
CALIFORNIA BUILDING SOUTHEASTWARD. FURTHER SOUTH...A CLOSED LOW
EVIDENT ON WV IMAGERY CONTINUES TO RETROGRADE WESTWARD FROM THE BAJA
PENINSULA. A COL REGION IS ALSO EVIDENT...WHICH IS DEFLECTING DEEPER
MOISTURE ACROSS NORTHERN MEXICO BOTH TO THE WEST AND EAST...BUT WITH
LITTLE PROGRESS NORTHWARD INTO CENTRAL AZ. MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES ARE
EXPECTED TODAY WITH WELL-ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE
REGION. INCREASING CIRRUS IS EXPECTED LATE IN THE DAY AS THE FLOW
VEERS AND THE MID-UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE FINALLY ADVECTS NORTHWARD.
SHORT-TERM TEMPERATURES ARE WEIGHTED HEAVILY TOWARDS A BLEND OF
BIAS-CORRECTED ECMWF AND SREF...WHICH HAVE BEEN RECENT TOP
PERFORMERS. FORECAST MAX OF 79 DEGREES IN PHOENIX WOULD STILL FALL A
FEW DEGREES SHORT OF THE RECORD OF 83 DEGREES SET IN 1951.

MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE THAT THE AFOREMENTIONED LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM WILL LIFT NORTHWARD BEGINNING TONIGHT...BRINGING WIDESPREAD
RAIN TO THE DESERT SOUTHWEST MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT. DEEP TROPICAL
MOISTURE WILL BE IN PLACE WITH PWATS BETWEEN 0.75 AND 1.25 INCHES
EQUATING TO STANDARDIZED ANOMALIES OF +2 TO +3. STRONGEST FORCING
FOR ASCENT CONTINUES TO TREND WESTWARD INTO CA. HOWEVER...ISENTROPIC
ASCENT AND MOISTURE TRANSPORT IN A MERIDIONAL FLOW WILL BE
SUFFICIENT TO PRODUCE THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL ACROSS PORTIONS OF AZ.
RAIN SHOWERS WILL GENERALLY TAPER OFF MONDAY NIGHT AS THE SYSTEM
WEAKENS AND SUBSIDENCE OVERSPREADS SOUTHERN AZ BEHIND THE TROUGH
AXIS.

THE HIGHEST RAIN TOTALS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS SOUTHWESTERN AZ WHERE
LOW-MID LEVEL THETA-E WILL BE MAXIMIZED. ACROSS YUMA COUNTY...A HALF
OF AN INCH OF RAIN IS POSSIBLE. ELSEWHERE...EXPECT GENERALLY BETWEEN
A QUARTER AND A HALF OF AN INCH OF PRECIPITATION. MODEL CONSENSUS
SUGGESTS RAIN TOTALS IN THE PHOENIX AREA WILL BE SOMEWHAT
LOWER...GENERALLY AROUND TWO TENTHS OF AN INCH.

THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL ACCELERATE NORTHWARD TUESDAY AS THE
RIDGE DRIFTS EASTWARD INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. MODEL CROSS-SECTIONS
INDICATE THAT LOW CLOUDS WILL BE PREVALENT IN THE MORNING...BEFORE
DISSIPATING IN THE AFTERNOON. LOCAL HI-RES WRFS ALSO SUGGEST THAT AN
ISOLATED SHOWER MAY BE POSSIBLE IN THE EARLY MORNING...PARTICULARLY
NORTH AND EAST OF PHOENIX.

ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND HIGHER THAN NORMAL HUMIDITIES WILL
PREVAIL THROUGH NEXT WEEK AS A RIDGE BECOMES REESTABLISHED TO OUR
SOUTH ACROSS MEXICO. ABUNDANT MID AND HIGH CLOUDS ARE ALSO EXPECTED
THROUGH THE WEEK. GLOBAL MODELS CONTINUE TO SUGGEST THAT ANOTHER
PACIFIC LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL AFFECT THE REGION LATE IN THE WEEK.
THIS SYSTEM APPEARS SLOWER THAN ITS PREDECESSOR AND HAS THE
POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE PRECIPITATION IN THE FRIDAY-SUNDAY TIME
FRAME...MAINLY ACROSS AZ. OFFICIAL FORECAST IS WEIGHTED TOWARDS THE
LATEST ECMWF...WHICH IS EXHIBITING RELATIVELY LOW ENSEMBLE SPREAD.
HOWEVER...PRECISE TIMING REMAINS UNCERTAIN AND CHANCE POPS HAVE BEEN
UTILIZED FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. THEREAFTER...MODEL CONSENSUS
SUGGESTS LOWER PROBABILITIES FOR SUNDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...
SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA INCLUDING KPHX...KIWA AND KSDL...

LITTLE TO NO AVIATION IMPACTS THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING UNDER MOSTLY
CLEAR SKIES. EASTERLY SFC WINDS WILL BE FAVORED FOR THE ENTIRE
PERIOD...ALTHOUGH WINDS MAY BECOME RATHER LIGHT/VARIABLE OR EVEN
LIGHT WEST LATER IN THE AFTERNOON SUNDAY...MORESO AT KIWA THAN
KPHX.

FOR PLANNING PURPOSES...RAIN SHOWERS AND LOWERING CIGS SHOULD IMPACT
TERMINAL SITES LATER MONDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING. AT
THIS TIME...IT APPEARS ANY RAIN WOULD BE DELAYED UNTIL AFTER 21Z
MONDAY AND CIGS FALLING BELOW 6K FT WOULD BE FAVORED AFTER 00Z.
CONFIDENCE IS FAIR THAT CIGS WILL BE MAINTAINED IN A 4K-6K FT LAYER
MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING.

SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA AND SOUTHWEST ARIZONA INCLUDING KIPL AND KBLH...

VERY LITTLE AVIATION IMPACTS THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON WITH MOSTLY
CLEAR SKIES. WINDS WILL STILL FAVOR THE NORTH TO NORTHEAST AT KBLH
NEXT 24 HOURS WITH SPEEDS MOSTLY AOB 12KT.

AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDED TAFS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL PERSIST THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD AS
SOUTHERLY FLOW TAKES HOLD ACROSS THE DESERT SOUTHWEST. A LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE NORTHWARD OFF THE COAST OF BAJA AND
CALIFORNIA BRINGING GOOD CHANCES FOR RAIN ON MONDAY INTO EARLY
TUESDAY. FAIRLY MOIST CONDITIONS WILL ONLY LEAD TO MINIMUM
HUMIDITIES EACH AFTERNOON IN THE 25 TO 35 PERCENT RANGE ACROSS THE
LOWER DESERTS. WITH THE EXCEPTION OF SOME OCCASIONAL AFTERNOON
BREEZINESS...WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT THROUGH THE ENTIRE PERIOD.

&&

.PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

AZ...NONE.

CA...NONE.

&&

$$

VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/PHOENIX

DISCUSSION...HIRSCH
AVIATION...MO/CB
FIRE WEATHER...KUHLMAN






000
FXUS65 KTWC 250915
AFDTWC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ
215 AM MST SUN JAN 25 2015

.SYNOPSIS...SEASONAL DAYTIME TEMPERATURES AND EASTERLY BREEZES WILL
PREVAIL THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEKEND. INCREASING MOISTURE FROM
THE SOUTH WILL BRING THICKENING CLOUDS AND SHOWERS TO SOUTHERN
ARIZONA MONDAY INTO EARLY TUESDAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND 25/00Z UPPER-AIR PLOTS
INDICATE THAT THE UPPER LOW IS SPINNING OFFSHORE OF THE SOUTH
CENTRAL BAJA PENINSULA. MEANWHILE...IR SATELLITE IMAGERY IS SHOWING
EXTENSIVE CLOUDINESS SPREADING NORTHWARD AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM OVER
MUCH OF MEXICO AND INTO EXTREME SOUTHERN ARIZONA AND SOUTHWEST NEW
MEXICO. LAST EVENINGS KTWC 25/00Z SOUNDING ONLY SHOWED A
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUE OF 0.14 INCHES. THE SATELLITE DERIVED
BLENDED TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER PRODUCT SHOWED DRY AIR ACROSS MUCH
OF THE DESERT SOUTHWEST...BUT HIGHER PW AIR LURKS TO OUR SOUTH
ACROSS SOUTHERN BAJA...THE SOUTHERN GULF OF CALIFORNIA AND SOUTHERN
SONORA...WITH VALUES OF AROUND 0.75 - 1.0 INCHES. MODELS INDICATE
THAT THIS MOIST AIR TO OUR SOUTH WILL WORK ITS WAY NORTHWARD THROUGH
EARLY TUESDAY WITH PW VALUES INCREASING TO AROUND A HALF TO THREE
QUARTERS OF AN INCH OVER THE WHITE MOUNTAINS OF EAST CENTRAL ARIZONA
TO AROUND 1.25 INCHES OVER THE WESTERN DESERTS OF CENTRAL AND
EASTERN PIMA COUNTY.

AS THE MOISTURE SPREADS TO THE NORTH THE FIRST ISOLATED SHOWERS
SHOULD DEVELOP LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY MONDAY MORNING OVER SOUTH
CENTRAL PIMA COUNTY AND SANTA CRUZ COUNTY...GENERALLY ALONG THE
BORDER FROM NOGALES TO ORGAN PIPE. AS THE DAY BEGINS MONDAY THROUGH
ABOUT MIDDAY...THE SHOWERS WILL INCREASE DRAMATICALLY FROM THE
SOUTHWEST WITH SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS FROM TUCSON TO NOGALES
AND WESTWARD TO AJO AND BEYOND. A VERY STEEP GRADIENT OF RAIN
CHANCES WILL OCCUR AS THE SHOWERS BEGIN TO DEVELOP EARLY MONDAY WITH
VERY LITTLE THREAT FOR SHOWERS OVER THE WHITE MOUNTAINS OF NORTHERN
GREENLEE COUNTY.

BY MONDAY AFTERNOON THE SHOWERS WILL SPREAD TOWARD THE NORTH AND
NORTHEAST AND BY MONDAY EVENING NUMEROUS SHOWERS WILL BE PRESENT
OVER DESERT/VALLEY LOCATIONS...WITH PRECIPITATION A GIVEN OVER MOST
OF THE MOUNTAINS OF SOUTHEAST ARIZONA. PERHAPS ONLY THE MOUNTAINS
ALONG THE NEW MEXICO BORDER WILL SEE LESSER CHANCES...BUT STILL
SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS IN THAT AREA.

AFTER MIDNIGHT MONDAY NIGHT...THE UPPER TROUGH SHOULD LIE ACROSS THE
PACIFIC WATERS OF THE SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA COAST AND INTO SOUTHWEST
ARIZONA. THE INITIAL VORT LOBE THAT WILL TRIGGER SHOWERS DURING THE
DAY ON MONDAY AND INTO MONDAY EVENING WILL BE OVER NORTHEAST ARIZONA
AND INTO WESTERN NEW MEXICO BY LATE MONDAY EVENING. AS A RESULT THE
SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO MAKE NORTHWARD PROGRESS OVERNIGHT INTO
EARLY TUESDAY AS THIS SYSTEM LIFTS INTO THE GREAT BASIN (NEVADA AND
UTAH) BY MIDDAY TUESDAY. WITH SUCH AN ABUNDANT AMOUNT OF MOISTURE
AVAILABLE WITH THIS SYSTEM...QPF VALUES WILL BE RESPECTABLE WITH
STORM TOTAL AMOUNTS FROM EARLY MONDAY THROUGH MIDDAY TUESDAY
GENERALLY AROUND A HALF INCH FROM TUCSON TO NOGALES AND WESTWARD
ACROSS MUCH OF CENTRAL AND WESTERN PIMA COUNTY. LESSER AMOUNTS
EXPECTED FARTHER EAST ACROSS GREENLEE...GRAHAM AND COCHISE
COUNTIES...BUT STILL AROUND A THIRD TO A HALF INCH. THIS SYSTEM WILL
BE A WARM SYSTEM...SO SNOW LEVELS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO FALL VERY
MUCH. SNOW LEVELS WILL PERHAPS FALL TO AROUND 9000 FEET...SO AT THIS
TIME THE ONLY POTENTIAL FOR ANY APPRECIABLE SNOW WOULD BE OVER THE
WHITE MOUNTAINS OF NORTHERN GREENLEE COUNTY WHERE AN INCH OR SO IS
POSSIBLE.

ONCE THIS SYSTEM LIFTS TO THE NORTH AND EAST...DRY WEATHER WILL
RETURN LATE TUESDAY THROUGH MUCH OF THURSDAY BEFORE ANOTHER PACIFIC
SYSTEM WILL LIKELY BRING ANOTHER SHOT OF PRECIPITATION TO THE REGION
BEGINNING LATE THURSDAY AND CONTINUING THROUGH THE WEEKEND. FOR NOW
I ONLY HAVE CHANCE CATEGORY POPS IN THE FORECAST...MAINLY FRIDAY
THROUGH SATURDAY. HOWEVER...AS THIS SYSTEM GETS CLOSER IN BOTH SPACE
AND TIME...THE RAIN CHANCES WILL LIKELY NEED ADDITIONAL
MODIFICATION...SO STAY TUNED.

FOR TUCSON...HIGHS TODAY WILL GENERALLY BE AROUND 7 TO 9 DEGS ABOVE
NORMAL. SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL HIGHS EXPECTED MONDAY AND SLIGHTLY
ABOVE NORMAL FOR TUESDAY. THEREAFTER...HIGHS AROUND 6 TO 8 DEGS
ABOVE NORMAL WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY AND A FEW DEGS BELOW NORMAL FOR
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. LOW TEMPERATURES WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH
THE ENTIRE FORECAST PERIOD...WITH LOWS RANGING FROM 8 TO 12 DEGS
ABOVE NORMAL MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY MORNINGS AND 5 TO 7 DEGS ABOVE
NORMAL FOR SATURDAY MORNING.

&&

.AVIATION...VALID THRU 26/12Z.
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE PERIOD. HIGH CLOUDS WILL BE
ON THE INCREASE FROM SOUTH TO NORTH OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS WITH
SCATTERED MID CLOUD STARTING TO FILTER IN FROM THE SOUTH LATE
TODAY. EASTERLY SURFACE WINDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE PERIOD.
SPEEDS WILL GENERALLY BE LESS THAN 12 KTS WITH OCCASIONAL GUSTS UP
TO 20 KTS THROUGH MUCH OF TODAY. HOWEVER...LATE TONIGHT AND INTO
EARLY MONDAY MORNING SPEEDS WILL INCREASE TO AROUND 10-15 KNOTS WITH
GUSTS TO AROUND 20-25 KNOTS. AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR TAF
AMENDMENTS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...GUSTY EAST TO SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL OCCUR FOR MUCH OF
THE AREA OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. SPEEDS WILL BE 10-15 MPH WITH
A FEW HIGHER GUSTS MAINLY DURING THE DAYTIME. DRY CONDITIONS WILL
PERSIST THROUGH TODAY. AN INCREASE IN MOISTURE AND A HIGH POTENTIAL
OF SHOWERS WILL OCCUR MONDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING. THE
BEST CHANCE FOR SHOWERS WILL BE MONDAY AFTERNOON INTO MONDAY NIGHT.
DRY WEATHER WILL RETURN TUESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH THURSDAY BEFORE
ANOTHER DISTURBANCE BRINGS A THREAT OF SHOWERS ONCE AGAIN LATE NEXT
WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND.

&&

.TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...YOUTUBE...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/TUCSON

MOLLERE






000
FXUS65 KTWC 250915
AFDTWC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ
215 AM MST SUN JAN 25 2015

.SYNOPSIS...SEASONAL DAYTIME TEMPERATURES AND EASTERLY BREEZES WILL
PREVAIL THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEKEND. INCREASING MOISTURE FROM
THE SOUTH WILL BRING THICKENING CLOUDS AND SHOWERS TO SOUTHERN
ARIZONA MONDAY INTO EARLY TUESDAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND 25/00Z UPPER-AIR PLOTS
INDICATE THAT THE UPPER LOW IS SPINNING OFFSHORE OF THE SOUTH
CENTRAL BAJA PENINSULA. MEANWHILE...IR SATELLITE IMAGERY IS SHOWING
EXTENSIVE CLOUDINESS SPREADING NORTHWARD AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM OVER
MUCH OF MEXICO AND INTO EXTREME SOUTHERN ARIZONA AND SOUTHWEST NEW
MEXICO. LAST EVENINGS KTWC 25/00Z SOUNDING ONLY SHOWED A
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUE OF 0.14 INCHES. THE SATELLITE DERIVED
BLENDED TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER PRODUCT SHOWED DRY AIR ACROSS MUCH
OF THE DESERT SOUTHWEST...BUT HIGHER PW AIR LURKS TO OUR SOUTH
ACROSS SOUTHERN BAJA...THE SOUTHERN GULF OF CALIFORNIA AND SOUTHERN
SONORA...WITH VALUES OF AROUND 0.75 - 1.0 INCHES. MODELS INDICATE
THAT THIS MOIST AIR TO OUR SOUTH WILL WORK ITS WAY NORTHWARD THROUGH
EARLY TUESDAY WITH PW VALUES INCREASING TO AROUND A HALF TO THREE
QUARTERS OF AN INCH OVER THE WHITE MOUNTAINS OF EAST CENTRAL ARIZONA
TO AROUND 1.25 INCHES OVER THE WESTERN DESERTS OF CENTRAL AND
EASTERN PIMA COUNTY.

AS THE MOISTURE SPREADS TO THE NORTH THE FIRST ISOLATED SHOWERS
SHOULD DEVELOP LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY MONDAY MORNING OVER SOUTH
CENTRAL PIMA COUNTY AND SANTA CRUZ COUNTY...GENERALLY ALONG THE
BORDER FROM NOGALES TO ORGAN PIPE. AS THE DAY BEGINS MONDAY THROUGH
ABOUT MIDDAY...THE SHOWERS WILL INCREASE DRAMATICALLY FROM THE
SOUTHWEST WITH SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS FROM TUCSON TO NOGALES
AND WESTWARD TO AJO AND BEYOND. A VERY STEEP GRADIENT OF RAIN
CHANCES WILL OCCUR AS THE SHOWERS BEGIN TO DEVELOP EARLY MONDAY WITH
VERY LITTLE THREAT FOR SHOWERS OVER THE WHITE MOUNTAINS OF NORTHERN
GREENLEE COUNTY.

BY MONDAY AFTERNOON THE SHOWERS WILL SPREAD TOWARD THE NORTH AND
NORTHEAST AND BY MONDAY EVENING NUMEROUS SHOWERS WILL BE PRESENT
OVER DESERT/VALLEY LOCATIONS...WITH PRECIPITATION A GIVEN OVER MOST
OF THE MOUNTAINS OF SOUTHEAST ARIZONA. PERHAPS ONLY THE MOUNTAINS
ALONG THE NEW MEXICO BORDER WILL SEE LESSER CHANCES...BUT STILL
SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS IN THAT AREA.

AFTER MIDNIGHT MONDAY NIGHT...THE UPPER TROUGH SHOULD LIE ACROSS THE
PACIFIC WATERS OF THE SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA COAST AND INTO SOUTHWEST
ARIZONA. THE INITIAL VORT LOBE THAT WILL TRIGGER SHOWERS DURING THE
DAY ON MONDAY AND INTO MONDAY EVENING WILL BE OVER NORTHEAST ARIZONA
AND INTO WESTERN NEW MEXICO BY LATE MONDAY EVENING. AS A RESULT THE
SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO MAKE NORTHWARD PROGRESS OVERNIGHT INTO
EARLY TUESDAY AS THIS SYSTEM LIFTS INTO THE GREAT BASIN (NEVADA AND
UTAH) BY MIDDAY TUESDAY. WITH SUCH AN ABUNDANT AMOUNT OF MOISTURE
AVAILABLE WITH THIS SYSTEM...QPF VALUES WILL BE RESPECTABLE WITH
STORM TOTAL AMOUNTS FROM EARLY MONDAY THROUGH MIDDAY TUESDAY
GENERALLY AROUND A HALF INCH FROM TUCSON TO NOGALES AND WESTWARD
ACROSS MUCH OF CENTRAL AND WESTERN PIMA COUNTY. LESSER AMOUNTS
EXPECTED FARTHER EAST ACROSS GREENLEE...GRAHAM AND COCHISE
COUNTIES...BUT STILL AROUND A THIRD TO A HALF INCH. THIS SYSTEM WILL
BE A WARM SYSTEM...SO SNOW LEVELS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO FALL VERY
MUCH. SNOW LEVELS WILL PERHAPS FALL TO AROUND 9000 FEET...SO AT THIS
TIME THE ONLY POTENTIAL FOR ANY APPRECIABLE SNOW WOULD BE OVER THE
WHITE MOUNTAINS OF NORTHERN GREENLEE COUNTY WHERE AN INCH OR SO IS
POSSIBLE.

ONCE THIS SYSTEM LIFTS TO THE NORTH AND EAST...DRY WEATHER WILL
RETURN LATE TUESDAY THROUGH MUCH OF THURSDAY BEFORE ANOTHER PACIFIC
SYSTEM WILL LIKELY BRING ANOTHER SHOT OF PRECIPITATION TO THE REGION
BEGINNING LATE THURSDAY AND CONTINUING THROUGH THE WEEKEND. FOR NOW
I ONLY HAVE CHANCE CATEGORY POPS IN THE FORECAST...MAINLY FRIDAY
THROUGH SATURDAY. HOWEVER...AS THIS SYSTEM GETS CLOSER IN BOTH SPACE
AND TIME...THE RAIN CHANCES WILL LIKELY NEED ADDITIONAL
MODIFICATION...SO STAY TUNED.

FOR TUCSON...HIGHS TODAY WILL GENERALLY BE AROUND 7 TO 9 DEGS ABOVE
NORMAL. SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL HIGHS EXPECTED MONDAY AND SLIGHTLY
ABOVE NORMAL FOR TUESDAY. THEREAFTER...HIGHS AROUND 6 TO 8 DEGS
ABOVE NORMAL WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY AND A FEW DEGS BELOW NORMAL FOR
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. LOW TEMPERATURES WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH
THE ENTIRE FORECAST PERIOD...WITH LOWS RANGING FROM 8 TO 12 DEGS
ABOVE NORMAL MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY MORNINGS AND 5 TO 7 DEGS ABOVE
NORMAL FOR SATURDAY MORNING.

&&

.AVIATION...VALID THRU 26/12Z.
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE PERIOD. HIGH CLOUDS WILL BE
ON THE INCREASE FROM SOUTH TO NORTH OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS WITH
SCATTERED MID CLOUD STARTING TO FILTER IN FROM THE SOUTH LATE
TODAY. EASTERLY SURFACE WINDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE PERIOD.
SPEEDS WILL GENERALLY BE LESS THAN 12 KTS WITH OCCASIONAL GUSTS UP
TO 20 KTS THROUGH MUCH OF TODAY. HOWEVER...LATE TONIGHT AND INTO
EARLY MONDAY MORNING SPEEDS WILL INCREASE TO AROUND 10-15 KNOTS WITH
GUSTS TO AROUND 20-25 KNOTS. AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR TAF
AMENDMENTS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...GUSTY EAST TO SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL OCCUR FOR MUCH OF
THE AREA OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. SPEEDS WILL BE 10-15 MPH WITH
A FEW HIGHER GUSTS MAINLY DURING THE DAYTIME. DRY CONDITIONS WILL
PERSIST THROUGH TODAY. AN INCREASE IN MOISTURE AND A HIGH POTENTIAL
OF SHOWERS WILL OCCUR MONDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING. THE
BEST CHANCE FOR SHOWERS WILL BE MONDAY AFTERNOON INTO MONDAY NIGHT.
DRY WEATHER WILL RETURN TUESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH THURSDAY BEFORE
ANOTHER DISTURBANCE BRINGS A THREAT OF SHOWERS ONCE AGAIN LATE NEXT
WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND.

&&

.TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...YOUTUBE...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/TUCSON

MOLLERE







000
FXUS65 KFGZ 250354
AFDFGZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ
854 PM MST SAT JAN 24 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
EXPECT DRY AND RELATIVELY MILD WEATHER ACROSS NORTHERN ARIZONA
THIS WEEKEND. STARTING MONDAY...A SUB-TROPICAL AIRMASS WILL MOVE
INTO ARIZONA...RESULTING IN PERIODS OF MAINLY RAIN SHOWERS ON
MONDAY AND TUESDAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
NO SIGNIFICANT UPDATES THIS EVENING. SHORT-TERM FORECAST LOOKS TO
BE IN GOOD SHAPE.

&&

.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION /330 PM MST/...
NORTHEAST FLOW WILL CONTINUE TODAY AND SUNDAY. THIS WILL KEEP
AREAS ALONG AND NORTHEAST OF THE RIM 5-10 DEGREES COOLER THAN
WHAT WOULD OTHERWISE BE PRODUCED BY THE RIDGE BUILDING TO OUR
NORTHWEST. AREAS SOUTH AND WEST OF THE RIM WILL SEE TEMPERATURES
WELL ABOVE NORMAL.

A SUB-TROPICAL RAIN EVENT STILL LOOKS LIKELY FOR LATE MONDAY
THROUGH TUESDAY. THIS WILL BE A HIGH PROBABILITY EVENT...WITH
LOW TO LOCALLY MODERATE QPF AMOUNTS. MODELS ARE REMAINING
CONSISTENT WITH THIS IN THE AFTERNOON RUNS...WE RAISED POPS A BIT
MORE...BUT THE OVERALL LOOK WILL REMAIN THE SAME.

LATER IN THE WEEK...A WEAK MEAN TROUGH WILL REMAIN OFF THE
SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA COAST...ROUGHLY ANCHORED SOUTH OF THE MEAN
WEST COAST RIDGE. AS LONG AS THIS LOW REMAINS IN PLACE...IT WILL
HAVE THE ABILITY TO SEND OCCASIONAL BURSTS OF SUB-TROPICAL
MOISTURE OUR WAY. MOST MODELS SUGGEST THIS HAPPENING AGAIN NEXT
FRIDAY AND INTO THE WEEKEND...HOWEVER...THERE ARE SOME
DIFFERENCES.

THE 12Z GFS AND TO SOME EXTENT THE CANADIAN...DEVELOPED A DRAMATIC
CHANGE FOR THE SECOND SYSTEM. THESE RUNS NOW INJECT A COLD
CANADIAN AIRMASS INTO THE SUB-TROPICAL MOISTURE STREAM...CREATING
A LARGE AMOUNT OF QPF OVER ARIZONA. THIS IS AN OUTLIER
SOLUTION...BUT THE 18Z GFS STILL HAS SOME...ALBEIT
WEAKER...SUPPORT FOR THIS. WE HAVE RAISED POPS AGAIN LATE IN THE
WEEK AND OVER THE WEEKEND...BUT NOT NEARLY TO THE EXTENT THE
OUTLIER SOLUTIONS SUGGEST. WE WILL KEEP AN EYE ON THIS...AS THINGS
WILL UNDOUBTEDLY CHANGE.

&&

.AVIATION...
FOR THE 06Z PACKAGE...VFR CONDITIONS FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS UNDER
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES. SURFACE WINDS N-NE 10G20KT ALONG AND SOUTHWEST
OF THE MOGOLLON RIM...LIGHT AND VARIABLE ELSEWHERE. AVIATION
DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR TAF AMENDMENTS.

&&

.FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC.........KD/PETERSON
AVIATION.......KD

FOR NORTHERN ARIZONA WEATHER INFORMATION VISIT
WEATHER.GOV/FLAGSTAFF







000
FXUS65 KFGZ 250354
AFDFGZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ
854 PM MST SAT JAN 24 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
EXPECT DRY AND RELATIVELY MILD WEATHER ACROSS NORTHERN ARIZONA
THIS WEEKEND. STARTING MONDAY...A SUB-TROPICAL AIRMASS WILL MOVE
INTO ARIZONA...RESULTING IN PERIODS OF MAINLY RAIN SHOWERS ON
MONDAY AND TUESDAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
NO SIGNIFICANT UPDATES THIS EVENING. SHORT-TERM FORECAST LOOKS TO
BE IN GOOD SHAPE.

&&

.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION /330 PM MST/...
NORTHEAST FLOW WILL CONTINUE TODAY AND SUNDAY. THIS WILL KEEP
AREAS ALONG AND NORTHEAST OF THE RIM 5-10 DEGREES COOLER THAN
WHAT WOULD OTHERWISE BE PRODUCED BY THE RIDGE BUILDING TO OUR
NORTHWEST. AREAS SOUTH AND WEST OF THE RIM WILL SEE TEMPERATURES
WELL ABOVE NORMAL.

A SUB-TROPICAL RAIN EVENT STILL LOOKS LIKELY FOR LATE MONDAY
THROUGH TUESDAY. THIS WILL BE A HIGH PROBABILITY EVENT...WITH
LOW TO LOCALLY MODERATE QPF AMOUNTS. MODELS ARE REMAINING
CONSISTENT WITH THIS IN THE AFTERNOON RUNS...WE RAISED POPS A BIT
MORE...BUT THE OVERALL LOOK WILL REMAIN THE SAME.

LATER IN THE WEEK...A WEAK MEAN TROUGH WILL REMAIN OFF THE
SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA COAST...ROUGHLY ANCHORED SOUTH OF THE MEAN
WEST COAST RIDGE. AS LONG AS THIS LOW REMAINS IN PLACE...IT WILL
HAVE THE ABILITY TO SEND OCCASIONAL BURSTS OF SUB-TROPICAL
MOISTURE OUR WAY. MOST MODELS SUGGEST THIS HAPPENING AGAIN NEXT
FRIDAY AND INTO THE WEEKEND...HOWEVER...THERE ARE SOME
DIFFERENCES.

THE 12Z GFS AND TO SOME EXTENT THE CANADIAN...DEVELOPED A DRAMATIC
CHANGE FOR THE SECOND SYSTEM. THESE RUNS NOW INJECT A COLD
CANADIAN AIRMASS INTO THE SUB-TROPICAL MOISTURE STREAM...CREATING
A LARGE AMOUNT OF QPF OVER ARIZONA. THIS IS AN OUTLIER
SOLUTION...BUT THE 18Z GFS STILL HAS SOME...ALBEIT
WEAKER...SUPPORT FOR THIS. WE HAVE RAISED POPS AGAIN LATE IN THE
WEEK AND OVER THE WEEKEND...BUT NOT NEARLY TO THE EXTENT THE
OUTLIER SOLUTIONS SUGGEST. WE WILL KEEP AN EYE ON THIS...AS THINGS
WILL UNDOUBTEDLY CHANGE.

&&

.AVIATION...
FOR THE 06Z PACKAGE...VFR CONDITIONS FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS UNDER
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES. SURFACE WINDS N-NE 10G20KT ALONG AND SOUTHWEST
OF THE MOGOLLON RIM...LIGHT AND VARIABLE ELSEWHERE. AVIATION
DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR TAF AMENDMENTS.

&&

.FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC.........KD/PETERSON
AVIATION.......KD

FOR NORTHERN ARIZONA WEATHER INFORMATION VISIT
WEATHER.GOV/FLAGSTAFF






000
FXUS65 KPSR 250349
AFDPSR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PHOENIX AZ
850 PM MST SAT JAN 24 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
STRONG HIGH PRESSURE WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE WESTERN STATES THIS
WEEKEND...RESULTING IN SUNNY SKIES AND UNUSUALLY WARM WEATHER. A LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA MONDAY...BRINGING AN
INCREASE IN MOISTURE AND LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS. IN ITS WAKE...ABOVE
NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND HIGHER THAN NORMAL HUMIDITIES WILL PREVAIL
THROUGH NEXT WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
REX-BLOCK TYPE PATTERN CONTINUED TO DEVELOP ALONG THE WEST COAST
EARLY THIS EVENING...AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILT INLAND OVER THE CA COAST
WHILE AN UPPER LOW TOOK SHAPE TO THE SOUTH...SPINNING ALONG THE
CENTRAL BAJA COAST. THE DEVELOPING UPPER LOW WAS CLEARLY SEEN IN THE
LATEST VAPOR IMAGERY. DRY NELY FLOW ALOFT WAS PRESENT ACROSS MUCH OF
ARIZONA AS SEEN IN THE EVENING SOUNDINGS...CAUSING PWAT VALUES TO
FALL WELL BELOW ONE QUARTER INCH. H5 HEIGHTS ACROSS NRN AZ WERE UP
TO 578DM...AND LOCALLY BREEZY CONDITIONS TODAY OVER THE CENTRAL
DESERTS HELPED MIX SOME OF THE WARMING ALOFT DOWN TO THE SURFACE.
PHOENIX TOPPED OUT AT 77 DEGREES...9 DEGREES ABOVE SEASONAL NORMALS.

FOR THE REST OF TONIGHT...EXPECT MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES ALONG WITH COOL
OVERNIGHT LOWS. LOW LEVEL GRADIENTS WILL RELAX SLIGHTLY ALLOWING FOR
LESS WIND...BUT THERE MAY STILL BE LOCALLY BREEZY EAST/NORTHEAST
WINDS PRESENT ACROSS THE CENTRAL DESERTS OVERNIGHT. CURRENT
FORECASTS LOOK TO BE IN GOOD SHAPE AND NO UPDATES ARE NEEDED ATTM.

.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
THE FORMATIVE STAGES OF A TEMPORARY REX-TYPE BLOCK WERE
MATERIALIZING ACROSS THE WRN CONUS EARLY THIS AFTERNOON WITH THE
CUTOFF SOUTHERN STREAM LOW SLOWLY RETROGRADING WEST OF THE BAJA
PENINSULA. IN THIS EVOLUTION...FLOW ALOFT THROUGH NRN MEXICO WAS
ALREADY BACKING MORE MERIDIONAL STARTING TO PULL THICKER MID/HIGH
LEVEL MOISTURE NORTHWARD TOWARDS SERN ARIZONA. HOWEVER...UPSTREAM
SUBSIDENCE ON THE EASTERN SIDE OF THE RIDGE AXIS HAS BEEN A
SIGNIFICANT LIMITING FACTOR TOWARDS THE EXPANSION OF HIGH CLOUDS.
THIS PATTERN CONFIGURATION (AND TRANQUIL WEATHER) WILL HOLD THROUGH
SUNDAY EVENING UNTIL THE COUNTERPART NORTHERN STREAM RIDGE FOLDS
OVER INTO THE CNTRL ROCKIES...ALLOWING THE AFOREMENTIONED CUTOFF TO
BE PICKED UP AND EJECTED THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA MONDAY AND
TUESDAY.

VERY LITTLE CHANGE IN FORECAST THINKING MONDAY AND TUESDAY AS
OPERATIONAL MODELS REMAIN CONSISTENT AND SUPPORTED STRONGLY BY
ENSEMBLE MEMBERS LIFTING A SHORTWAVE AND A COINCIDENT MOISTURE LADEN
AIRMASS INTO THE FORECAST AREA. DEEP MERIDIONAL FLOW WILL RESULT IN
STRONG TRANSPORT OF ANOMALOUS PWATS NORTHWARD...WITH TOTAL PWAT
VALUES IN A 0.75-1.25 RANGE CORRESPONDING TO 2-3 NORMALIZED STANDARD
DEVIATIONS ABOVE NORMAL. THE INITIAL NOSE OF WELL DEFINED DEEP HIGH
THETA-E AIR WILL BE ENTRAINED NORTHWESTWARD THROUGHOUT A REGION OF
BROAD ISENTROPIC ASCENT AND GENERALIZED DYNAMIC LIFT (WITH A
DISTINCT NEGATIVE U-COMPONENT JET LEVEL TRAJECTORY). MODEL TRENDS
CONTINUE TO SUGGEST THIS PLUME INITIALLY TRANSPORTED MORE
WESTWARD THAN NORTHWARD...AND HIGHER POPS DURING DAYLIGHT HOURS HAVE
BEEN TAILORED TOWARDS WRN ARIZONA PRIOR TO SUNSET.

WHILE DRY AIR AND EASTERLY FLOW IN THE SFC-H7 LAYER MAY INITIALLY
HAMPER PRECIPITATION REACHING THE GROUND OVER CNTRL ARIZONA MONDAY
AFTERNOON...THE SURGE OF HIGHER THETA-E AIR AND INCREASING DYNAMICS
SHOULD EVENTUALLY OVERCOME THIS NEGATING FACTOR MONDAY EVENING.
HOWEVER AS QUICKLY AS THE SYSTEM AND ASSOCIATED LIFT ENTER THE
REGION...THE PASSAGE OF THE TROUGH AXIS AND SUBSEQUENT DOWNGLIDE
SINKING MOTION WILL ENVELOP THE AREA TUESDAY MORNING. RESIDUAL
MOISTURE IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER AND PERSISTENT SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL
AID IN MAINTAINING LOW CLOUD COVER...THOUGH PROCESSES CONDUCIVE FOR
RAINFALL WILL RAPIDLY ABATE. ALL TOLD...STORM TOTAL QPF VALUES STILL
DISPLAY A LARGE RANGE AMONG OPERATIONAL AND ENSEMBLE MEMBERS...AND
HAVE FOLLOWED AN ENSEMBLE MEAN APPROACH SUGGESTING AMOUNTS IN A
0.25-0.50 RANGE THROUGH THE LOWER COLORADO RIVER VALLEY...AND
0.10-0.25 AROUND THE PHOENIX METRO.

HE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL ACCELERATE NORTHWARD TUESDAY AFTERNOON
AS THE RIDGE DRIFTS EASTWARD INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. MORE
WIDESPREAD SUBSIDENCE WILL OVERSPREAD SOUTHERN ARIZONA WITH ONLY A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF RESIDUAL SHOWERS ACROSS THE CENTRAL DESERTS TUESDAY
(AND MORE LIKELY VERY LIMITED TO THE UPSLOPE AREAS NORTH AND EAST OF
PHOENIX). MUCH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND HIGHER THAN NORMAL
HUMIDITIES WILL PREVAIL THROUGH NEXT WEEK AS A RIDGE BECOMES
REESTABLISHED TO OUR SOUTH ACROSS MEXICO AND GENERAL SOUTHERLY FLOW
PERSISTS. ABUNDANT MID AND HIGH CLOUDS WILL ALSO PREVAIL...AND
DEPENDING ON THICKNESS MAY HINDER FULL INSOLATION AND HIGH
TEMPERATURES ON ANY GIVEN DAY. GLOBAL MODELS CONTINUE TO SUGGEST
THAT ANOTHER PACIFIC LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL AFFECT THE REGION LATE
NEXT WEEK...THOUGH RUN-TO-RUN CONSISTENCY IS LACKING. THIS SYSTEM
APPEARS SLOWER THAN ITS PREDECESSOR AND HAS THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE
PRECIPITATION SOMETIME IN THE FRIDAY-SUNDAY TIME FRAME...THOUGH THE
EXACT TIMING IS UNCERTAIN THIS FAR OUT. HAVE COMPLETELY DISCOUNTED
THE ABRUPT CHANGE AND MOST INTENSE 12Z OPERATIONAL GFS SOLUTION WITH
LITTLE TO NO ENSEMBLE SUPPORT AT THIS TIME.

&&

.AVIATION...
SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA INCLUDING KPHX...KIWA AND KSDL...

LITTLE TO NO AVIATION IMPACTS THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING UNDER MOSTLY
CLEAR SKIES. EASTERLY SFC WINDS WILL BE FAVORED FOR THE ENTIRE
PERIOD...ALTHOUGH WINDS MAY BECOME RATHER LIGHT/VARIABLE OR EVEN
LIGHT WEST LATER IN THE AFTERNOON SUNDAY...MORESO AT KIWA THAN
KPHX.

FOR PLANNING PURPOSES...RAIN SHOWERS AND LOWERING CIGS SHOULD IMPACT
TERMINAL SITES LATER MONDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING. AT
THIS TIME...IT APPEARS ANY RAIN WOULD BE DELAYED UNTIL AFTER 21Z
MONDAY AND CIGS FALLING BELOW 6K FT WOULD BE FAVORED AFTER 00Z.
CONFIDENCE IS FAIR THAT CIGS WILL BE MAINTAINED IN A 4K-6K FT LAYER
MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING.

SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA AND SOUTHWEST ARIZONA INCLUDING KIPL AND KBLH...

VERY LITTLE AVIATION IMPACTS THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON WITH MOSTLY
CLEAR SKIES. WINDS WILL STILL FAVOR THE NORTH TO NORTHEAST AT KBLH
NEXT 24 HOURS WITH SPEEDS MOSTLY AOB 12KT.

AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDED TAFS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL PERSIST THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD AS
SOUTHERLY FLOW TAKES HOLD ACROSS THE DESERT SOUTHWEST. A LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE NORTHWARD OFF THE COAST OF BAJA AND
CALIFORNIA BRINGING GOOD CHANCES FOR RAIN ON MONDAY INTO EARLY
TUESDAY. FAIRLY MOIST CONDITIONS WILL ONLY LEAD TO MINIMUM
HUMIDITIES EACH AFTERNOON IN THE 25 TO 35 PERCENT RANGE ACROSS THE
LOWER DESERTS. WITH THE EXCEPTION OF SOME OCCASIONAL AFTERNOON
BREEZINESS...WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT THROUGH THE ENTIRE PERIOD.

&&

.PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

AZ...NONE.

CA...NONE.

&&

$$

VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/PHOENIX

DISCUSSION...CB
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...MO/HIRSCH
AVIATION...MO/CB
FIRE WEATHER...KUHLMAN










000
FXUS65 KPSR 250349
AFDPSR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PHOENIX AZ
850 PM MST SAT JAN 24 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
STRONG HIGH PRESSURE WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE WESTERN STATES THIS
WEEKEND...RESULTING IN SUNNY SKIES AND UNUSUALLY WARM WEATHER. A LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA MONDAY...BRINGING AN
INCREASE IN MOISTURE AND LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS. IN ITS WAKE...ABOVE
NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND HIGHER THAN NORMAL HUMIDITIES WILL PREVAIL
THROUGH NEXT WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
REX-BLOCK TYPE PATTERN CONTINUED TO DEVELOP ALONG THE WEST COAST
EARLY THIS EVENING...AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILT INLAND OVER THE CA COAST
WHILE AN UPPER LOW TOOK SHAPE TO THE SOUTH...SPINNING ALONG THE
CENTRAL BAJA COAST. THE DEVELOPING UPPER LOW WAS CLEARLY SEEN IN THE
LATEST VAPOR IMAGERY. DRY NELY FLOW ALOFT WAS PRESENT ACROSS MUCH OF
ARIZONA AS SEEN IN THE EVENING SOUNDINGS...CAUSING PWAT VALUES TO
FALL WELL BELOW ONE QUARTER INCH. H5 HEIGHTS ACROSS NRN AZ WERE UP
TO 578DM...AND LOCALLY BREEZY CONDITIONS TODAY OVER THE CENTRAL
DESERTS HELPED MIX SOME OF THE WARMING ALOFT DOWN TO THE SURFACE.
PHOENIX TOPPED OUT AT 77 DEGREES...9 DEGREES ABOVE SEASONAL NORMALS.

FOR THE REST OF TONIGHT...EXPECT MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES ALONG WITH COOL
OVERNIGHT LOWS. LOW LEVEL GRADIENTS WILL RELAX SLIGHTLY ALLOWING FOR
LESS WIND...BUT THERE MAY STILL BE LOCALLY BREEZY EAST/NORTHEAST
WINDS PRESENT ACROSS THE CENTRAL DESERTS OVERNIGHT. CURRENT
FORECASTS LOOK TO BE IN GOOD SHAPE AND NO UPDATES ARE NEEDED ATTM.

.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
THE FORMATIVE STAGES OF A TEMPORARY REX-TYPE BLOCK WERE
MATERIALIZING ACROSS THE WRN CONUS EARLY THIS AFTERNOON WITH THE
CUTOFF SOUTHERN STREAM LOW SLOWLY RETROGRADING WEST OF THE BAJA
PENINSULA. IN THIS EVOLUTION...FLOW ALOFT THROUGH NRN MEXICO WAS
ALREADY BACKING MORE MERIDIONAL STARTING TO PULL THICKER MID/HIGH
LEVEL MOISTURE NORTHWARD TOWARDS SERN ARIZONA. HOWEVER...UPSTREAM
SUBSIDENCE ON THE EASTERN SIDE OF THE RIDGE AXIS HAS BEEN A
SIGNIFICANT LIMITING FACTOR TOWARDS THE EXPANSION OF HIGH CLOUDS.
THIS PATTERN CONFIGURATION (AND TRANQUIL WEATHER) WILL HOLD THROUGH
SUNDAY EVENING UNTIL THE COUNTERPART NORTHERN STREAM RIDGE FOLDS
OVER INTO THE CNTRL ROCKIES...ALLOWING THE AFOREMENTIONED CUTOFF TO
BE PICKED UP AND EJECTED THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA MONDAY AND
TUESDAY.

VERY LITTLE CHANGE IN FORECAST THINKING MONDAY AND TUESDAY AS
OPERATIONAL MODELS REMAIN CONSISTENT AND SUPPORTED STRONGLY BY
ENSEMBLE MEMBERS LIFTING A SHORTWAVE AND A COINCIDENT MOISTURE LADEN
AIRMASS INTO THE FORECAST AREA. DEEP MERIDIONAL FLOW WILL RESULT IN
STRONG TRANSPORT OF ANOMALOUS PWATS NORTHWARD...WITH TOTAL PWAT
VALUES IN A 0.75-1.25 RANGE CORRESPONDING TO 2-3 NORMALIZED STANDARD
DEVIATIONS ABOVE NORMAL. THE INITIAL NOSE OF WELL DEFINED DEEP HIGH
THETA-E AIR WILL BE ENTRAINED NORTHWESTWARD THROUGHOUT A REGION OF
BROAD ISENTROPIC ASCENT AND GENERALIZED DYNAMIC LIFT (WITH A
DISTINCT NEGATIVE U-COMPONENT JET LEVEL TRAJECTORY). MODEL TRENDS
CONTINUE TO SUGGEST THIS PLUME INITIALLY TRANSPORTED MORE
WESTWARD THAN NORTHWARD...AND HIGHER POPS DURING DAYLIGHT HOURS HAVE
BEEN TAILORED TOWARDS WRN ARIZONA PRIOR TO SUNSET.

WHILE DRY AIR AND EASTERLY FLOW IN THE SFC-H7 LAYER MAY INITIALLY
HAMPER PRECIPITATION REACHING THE GROUND OVER CNTRL ARIZONA MONDAY
AFTERNOON...THE SURGE OF HIGHER THETA-E AIR AND INCREASING DYNAMICS
SHOULD EVENTUALLY OVERCOME THIS NEGATING FACTOR MONDAY EVENING.
HOWEVER AS QUICKLY AS THE SYSTEM AND ASSOCIATED LIFT ENTER THE
REGION...THE PASSAGE OF THE TROUGH AXIS AND SUBSEQUENT DOWNGLIDE
SINKING MOTION WILL ENVELOP THE AREA TUESDAY MORNING. RESIDUAL
MOISTURE IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER AND PERSISTENT SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL
AID IN MAINTAINING LOW CLOUD COVER...THOUGH PROCESSES CONDUCIVE FOR
RAINFALL WILL RAPIDLY ABATE. ALL TOLD...STORM TOTAL QPF VALUES STILL
DISPLAY A LARGE RANGE AMONG OPERATIONAL AND ENSEMBLE MEMBERS...AND
HAVE FOLLOWED AN ENSEMBLE MEAN APPROACH SUGGESTING AMOUNTS IN A
0.25-0.50 RANGE THROUGH THE LOWER COLORADO RIVER VALLEY...AND
0.10-0.25 AROUND THE PHOENIX METRO.

HE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL ACCELERATE NORTHWARD TUESDAY AFTERNOON
AS THE RIDGE DRIFTS EASTWARD INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. MORE
WIDESPREAD SUBSIDENCE WILL OVERSPREAD SOUTHERN ARIZONA WITH ONLY A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF RESIDUAL SHOWERS ACROSS THE CENTRAL DESERTS TUESDAY
(AND MORE LIKELY VERY LIMITED TO THE UPSLOPE AREAS NORTH AND EAST OF
PHOENIX). MUCH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND HIGHER THAN NORMAL
HUMIDITIES WILL PREVAIL THROUGH NEXT WEEK AS A RIDGE BECOMES
REESTABLISHED TO OUR SOUTH ACROSS MEXICO AND GENERAL SOUTHERLY FLOW
PERSISTS. ABUNDANT MID AND HIGH CLOUDS WILL ALSO PREVAIL...AND
DEPENDING ON THICKNESS MAY HINDER FULL INSOLATION AND HIGH
TEMPERATURES ON ANY GIVEN DAY. GLOBAL MODELS CONTINUE TO SUGGEST
THAT ANOTHER PACIFIC LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL AFFECT THE REGION LATE
NEXT WEEK...THOUGH RUN-TO-RUN CONSISTENCY IS LACKING. THIS SYSTEM
APPEARS SLOWER THAN ITS PREDECESSOR AND HAS THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE
PRECIPITATION SOMETIME IN THE FRIDAY-SUNDAY TIME FRAME...THOUGH THE
EXACT TIMING IS UNCERTAIN THIS FAR OUT. HAVE COMPLETELY DISCOUNTED
THE ABRUPT CHANGE AND MOST INTENSE 12Z OPERATIONAL GFS SOLUTION WITH
LITTLE TO NO ENSEMBLE SUPPORT AT THIS TIME.

&&

.AVIATION...
SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA INCLUDING KPHX...KIWA AND KSDL...

LITTLE TO NO AVIATION IMPACTS THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING UNDER MOSTLY
CLEAR SKIES. EASTERLY SFC WINDS WILL BE FAVORED FOR THE ENTIRE
PERIOD...ALTHOUGH WINDS MAY BECOME RATHER LIGHT/VARIABLE OR EVEN
LIGHT WEST LATER IN THE AFTERNOON SUNDAY...MORESO AT KIWA THAN
KPHX.

FOR PLANNING PURPOSES...RAIN SHOWERS AND LOWERING CIGS SHOULD IMPACT
TERMINAL SITES LATER MONDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING. AT
THIS TIME...IT APPEARS ANY RAIN WOULD BE DELAYED UNTIL AFTER 21Z
MONDAY AND CIGS FALLING BELOW 6K FT WOULD BE FAVORED AFTER 00Z.
CONFIDENCE IS FAIR THAT CIGS WILL BE MAINTAINED IN A 4K-6K FT LAYER
MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING.

SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA AND SOUTHWEST ARIZONA INCLUDING KIPL AND KBLH...

VERY LITTLE AVIATION IMPACTS THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON WITH MOSTLY
CLEAR SKIES. WINDS WILL STILL FAVOR THE NORTH TO NORTHEAST AT KBLH
NEXT 24 HOURS WITH SPEEDS MOSTLY AOB 12KT.

AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDED TAFS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL PERSIST THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD AS
SOUTHERLY FLOW TAKES HOLD ACROSS THE DESERT SOUTHWEST. A LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE NORTHWARD OFF THE COAST OF BAJA AND
CALIFORNIA BRINGING GOOD CHANCES FOR RAIN ON MONDAY INTO EARLY
TUESDAY. FAIRLY MOIST CONDITIONS WILL ONLY LEAD TO MINIMUM
HUMIDITIES EACH AFTERNOON IN THE 25 TO 35 PERCENT RANGE ACROSS THE
LOWER DESERTS. WITH THE EXCEPTION OF SOME OCCASIONAL AFTERNOON
BREEZINESS...WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT THROUGH THE ENTIRE PERIOD.

&&

.PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

AZ...NONE.

CA...NONE.

&&

$$

VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/PHOENIX

DISCUSSION...CB
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...MO/HIRSCH
AVIATION...MO/CB
FIRE WEATHER...KUHLMAN










000
FXUS65 KPSR 250349
AFDPSR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PHOENIX AZ
850 PM MST SAT JAN 24 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
STRONG HIGH PRESSURE WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE WESTERN STATES THIS
WEEKEND...RESULTING IN SUNNY SKIES AND UNUSUALLY WARM WEATHER. A LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA MONDAY...BRINGING AN
INCREASE IN MOISTURE AND LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS. IN ITS WAKE...ABOVE
NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND HIGHER THAN NORMAL HUMIDITIES WILL PREVAIL
THROUGH NEXT WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
REX-BLOCK TYPE PATTERN CONTINUED TO DEVELOP ALONG THE WEST COAST
EARLY THIS EVENING...AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILT INLAND OVER THE CA COAST
WHILE AN UPPER LOW TOOK SHAPE TO THE SOUTH...SPINNING ALONG THE
CENTRAL BAJA COAST. THE DEVELOPING UPPER LOW WAS CLEARLY SEEN IN THE
LATEST VAPOR IMAGERY. DRY NELY FLOW ALOFT WAS PRESENT ACROSS MUCH OF
ARIZONA AS SEEN IN THE EVENING SOUNDINGS...CAUSING PWAT VALUES TO
FALL WELL BELOW ONE QUARTER INCH. H5 HEIGHTS ACROSS NRN AZ WERE UP
TO 578DM...AND LOCALLY BREEZY CONDITIONS TODAY OVER THE CENTRAL
DESERTS HELPED MIX SOME OF THE WARMING ALOFT DOWN TO THE SURFACE.
PHOENIX TOPPED OUT AT 77 DEGREES...9 DEGREES ABOVE SEASONAL NORMALS.

FOR THE REST OF TONIGHT...EXPECT MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES ALONG WITH COOL
OVERNIGHT LOWS. LOW LEVEL GRADIENTS WILL RELAX SLIGHTLY ALLOWING FOR
LESS WIND...BUT THERE MAY STILL BE LOCALLY BREEZY EAST/NORTHEAST
WINDS PRESENT ACROSS THE CENTRAL DESERTS OVERNIGHT. CURRENT
FORECASTS LOOK TO BE IN GOOD SHAPE AND NO UPDATES ARE NEEDED ATTM.

.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
THE FORMATIVE STAGES OF A TEMPORARY REX-TYPE BLOCK WERE
MATERIALIZING ACROSS THE WRN CONUS EARLY THIS AFTERNOON WITH THE
CUTOFF SOUTHERN STREAM LOW SLOWLY RETROGRADING WEST OF THE BAJA
PENINSULA. IN THIS EVOLUTION...FLOW ALOFT THROUGH NRN MEXICO WAS
ALREADY BACKING MORE MERIDIONAL STARTING TO PULL THICKER MID/HIGH
LEVEL MOISTURE NORTHWARD TOWARDS SERN ARIZONA. HOWEVER...UPSTREAM
SUBSIDENCE ON THE EASTERN SIDE OF THE RIDGE AXIS HAS BEEN A
SIGNIFICANT LIMITING FACTOR TOWARDS THE EXPANSION OF HIGH CLOUDS.
THIS PATTERN CONFIGURATION (AND TRANQUIL WEATHER) WILL HOLD THROUGH
SUNDAY EVENING UNTIL THE COUNTERPART NORTHERN STREAM RIDGE FOLDS
OVER INTO THE CNTRL ROCKIES...ALLOWING THE AFOREMENTIONED CUTOFF TO
BE PICKED UP AND EJECTED THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA MONDAY AND
TUESDAY.

VERY LITTLE CHANGE IN FORECAST THINKING MONDAY AND TUESDAY AS
OPERATIONAL MODELS REMAIN CONSISTENT AND SUPPORTED STRONGLY BY
ENSEMBLE MEMBERS LIFTING A SHORTWAVE AND A COINCIDENT MOISTURE LADEN
AIRMASS INTO THE FORECAST AREA. DEEP MERIDIONAL FLOW WILL RESULT IN
STRONG TRANSPORT OF ANOMALOUS PWATS NORTHWARD...WITH TOTAL PWAT
VALUES IN A 0.75-1.25 RANGE CORRESPONDING TO 2-3 NORMALIZED STANDARD
DEVIATIONS ABOVE NORMAL. THE INITIAL NOSE OF WELL DEFINED DEEP HIGH
THETA-E AIR WILL BE ENTRAINED NORTHWESTWARD THROUGHOUT A REGION OF
BROAD ISENTROPIC ASCENT AND GENERALIZED DYNAMIC LIFT (WITH A
DISTINCT NEGATIVE U-COMPONENT JET LEVEL TRAJECTORY). MODEL TRENDS
CONTINUE TO SUGGEST THIS PLUME INITIALLY TRANSPORTED MORE
WESTWARD THAN NORTHWARD...AND HIGHER POPS DURING DAYLIGHT HOURS HAVE
BEEN TAILORED TOWARDS WRN ARIZONA PRIOR TO SUNSET.

WHILE DRY AIR AND EASTERLY FLOW IN THE SFC-H7 LAYER MAY INITIALLY
HAMPER PRECIPITATION REACHING THE GROUND OVER CNTRL ARIZONA MONDAY
AFTERNOON...THE SURGE OF HIGHER THETA-E AIR AND INCREASING DYNAMICS
SHOULD EVENTUALLY OVERCOME THIS NEGATING FACTOR MONDAY EVENING.
HOWEVER AS QUICKLY AS THE SYSTEM AND ASSOCIATED LIFT ENTER THE
REGION...THE PASSAGE OF THE TROUGH AXIS AND SUBSEQUENT DOWNGLIDE
SINKING MOTION WILL ENVELOP THE AREA TUESDAY MORNING. RESIDUAL
MOISTURE IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER AND PERSISTENT SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL
AID IN MAINTAINING LOW CLOUD COVER...THOUGH PROCESSES CONDUCIVE FOR
RAINFALL WILL RAPIDLY ABATE. ALL TOLD...STORM TOTAL QPF VALUES STILL
DISPLAY A LARGE RANGE AMONG OPERATIONAL AND ENSEMBLE MEMBERS...AND
HAVE FOLLOWED AN ENSEMBLE MEAN APPROACH SUGGESTING AMOUNTS IN A
0.25-0.50 RANGE THROUGH THE LOWER COLORADO RIVER VALLEY...AND
0.10-0.25 AROUND THE PHOENIX METRO.

HE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL ACCELERATE NORTHWARD TUESDAY AFTERNOON
AS THE RIDGE DRIFTS EASTWARD INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. MORE
WIDESPREAD SUBSIDENCE WILL OVERSPREAD SOUTHERN ARIZONA WITH ONLY A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF RESIDUAL SHOWERS ACROSS THE CENTRAL DESERTS TUESDAY
(AND MORE LIKELY VERY LIMITED TO THE UPSLOPE AREAS NORTH AND EAST OF
PHOENIX). MUCH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND HIGHER THAN NORMAL
HUMIDITIES WILL PREVAIL THROUGH NEXT WEEK AS A RIDGE BECOMES
REESTABLISHED TO OUR SOUTH ACROSS MEXICO AND GENERAL SOUTHERLY FLOW
PERSISTS. ABUNDANT MID AND HIGH CLOUDS WILL ALSO PREVAIL...AND
DEPENDING ON THICKNESS MAY HINDER FULL INSOLATION AND HIGH
TEMPERATURES ON ANY GIVEN DAY. GLOBAL MODELS CONTINUE TO SUGGEST
THAT ANOTHER PACIFIC LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL AFFECT THE REGION LATE
NEXT WEEK...THOUGH RUN-TO-RUN CONSISTENCY IS LACKING. THIS SYSTEM
APPEARS SLOWER THAN ITS PREDECESSOR AND HAS THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE
PRECIPITATION SOMETIME IN THE FRIDAY-SUNDAY TIME FRAME...THOUGH THE
EXACT TIMING IS UNCERTAIN THIS FAR OUT. HAVE COMPLETELY DISCOUNTED
THE ABRUPT CHANGE AND MOST INTENSE 12Z OPERATIONAL GFS SOLUTION WITH
LITTLE TO NO ENSEMBLE SUPPORT AT THIS TIME.

&&

.AVIATION...
SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA INCLUDING KPHX...KIWA AND KSDL...

LITTLE TO NO AVIATION IMPACTS THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING UNDER MOSTLY
CLEAR SKIES. EASTERLY SFC WINDS WILL BE FAVORED FOR THE ENTIRE
PERIOD...ALTHOUGH WINDS MAY BECOME RATHER LIGHT/VARIABLE OR EVEN
LIGHT WEST LATER IN THE AFTERNOON SUNDAY...MORESO AT KIWA THAN
KPHX.

FOR PLANNING PURPOSES...RAIN SHOWERS AND LOWERING CIGS SHOULD IMPACT
TERMINAL SITES LATER MONDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING. AT
THIS TIME...IT APPEARS ANY RAIN WOULD BE DELAYED UNTIL AFTER 21Z
MONDAY AND CIGS FALLING BELOW 6K FT WOULD BE FAVORED AFTER 00Z.
CONFIDENCE IS FAIR THAT CIGS WILL BE MAINTAINED IN A 4K-6K FT LAYER
MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING.

SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA AND SOUTHWEST ARIZONA INCLUDING KIPL AND KBLH...

VERY LITTLE AVIATION IMPACTS THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON WITH MOSTLY
CLEAR SKIES. WINDS WILL STILL FAVOR THE NORTH TO NORTHEAST AT KBLH
NEXT 24 HOURS WITH SPEEDS MOSTLY AOB 12KT.

AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDED TAFS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL PERSIST THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD AS
SOUTHERLY FLOW TAKES HOLD ACROSS THE DESERT SOUTHWEST. A LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE NORTHWARD OFF THE COAST OF BAJA AND
CALIFORNIA BRINGING GOOD CHANCES FOR RAIN ON MONDAY INTO EARLY
TUESDAY. FAIRLY MOIST CONDITIONS WILL ONLY LEAD TO MINIMUM
HUMIDITIES EACH AFTERNOON IN THE 25 TO 35 PERCENT RANGE ACROSS THE
LOWER DESERTS. WITH THE EXCEPTION OF SOME OCCASIONAL AFTERNOON
BREEZINESS...WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT THROUGH THE ENTIRE PERIOD.

&&

.PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

AZ...NONE.

CA...NONE.

&&

$$

VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/PHOENIX

DISCUSSION...CB
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...MO/HIRSCH
AVIATION...MO/CB
FIRE WEATHER...KUHLMAN










000
FXUS65 KPSR 250349
AFDPSR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PHOENIX AZ
850 PM MST SAT JAN 24 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
STRONG HIGH PRESSURE WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE WESTERN STATES THIS
WEEKEND...RESULTING IN SUNNY SKIES AND UNUSUALLY WARM WEATHER. A LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA MONDAY...BRINGING AN
INCREASE IN MOISTURE AND LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS. IN ITS WAKE...ABOVE
NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND HIGHER THAN NORMAL HUMIDITIES WILL PREVAIL
THROUGH NEXT WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
REX-BLOCK TYPE PATTERN CONTINUED TO DEVELOP ALONG THE WEST COAST
EARLY THIS EVENING...AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILT INLAND OVER THE CA COAST
WHILE AN UPPER LOW TOOK SHAPE TO THE SOUTH...SPINNING ALONG THE
CENTRAL BAJA COAST. THE DEVELOPING UPPER LOW WAS CLEARLY SEEN IN THE
LATEST VAPOR IMAGERY. DRY NELY FLOW ALOFT WAS PRESENT ACROSS MUCH OF
ARIZONA AS SEEN IN THE EVENING SOUNDINGS...CAUSING PWAT VALUES TO
FALL WELL BELOW ONE QUARTER INCH. H5 HEIGHTS ACROSS NRN AZ WERE UP
TO 578DM...AND LOCALLY BREEZY CONDITIONS TODAY OVER THE CENTRAL
DESERTS HELPED MIX SOME OF THE WARMING ALOFT DOWN TO THE SURFACE.
PHOENIX TOPPED OUT AT 77 DEGREES...9 DEGREES ABOVE SEASONAL NORMALS.

FOR THE REST OF TONIGHT...EXPECT MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES ALONG WITH COOL
OVERNIGHT LOWS. LOW LEVEL GRADIENTS WILL RELAX SLIGHTLY ALLOWING FOR
LESS WIND...BUT THERE MAY STILL BE LOCALLY BREEZY EAST/NORTHEAST
WINDS PRESENT ACROSS THE CENTRAL DESERTS OVERNIGHT. CURRENT
FORECASTS LOOK TO BE IN GOOD SHAPE AND NO UPDATES ARE NEEDED ATTM.

.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
THE FORMATIVE STAGES OF A TEMPORARY REX-TYPE BLOCK WERE
MATERIALIZING ACROSS THE WRN CONUS EARLY THIS AFTERNOON WITH THE
CUTOFF SOUTHERN STREAM LOW SLOWLY RETROGRADING WEST OF THE BAJA
PENINSULA. IN THIS EVOLUTION...FLOW ALOFT THROUGH NRN MEXICO WAS
ALREADY BACKING MORE MERIDIONAL STARTING TO PULL THICKER MID/HIGH
LEVEL MOISTURE NORTHWARD TOWARDS SERN ARIZONA. HOWEVER...UPSTREAM
SUBSIDENCE ON THE EASTERN SIDE OF THE RIDGE AXIS HAS BEEN A
SIGNIFICANT LIMITING FACTOR TOWARDS THE EXPANSION OF HIGH CLOUDS.
THIS PATTERN CONFIGURATION (AND TRANQUIL WEATHER) WILL HOLD THROUGH
SUNDAY EVENING UNTIL THE COUNTERPART NORTHERN STREAM RIDGE FOLDS
OVER INTO THE CNTRL ROCKIES...ALLOWING THE AFOREMENTIONED CUTOFF TO
BE PICKED UP AND EJECTED THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA MONDAY AND
TUESDAY.

VERY LITTLE CHANGE IN FORECAST THINKING MONDAY AND TUESDAY AS
OPERATIONAL MODELS REMAIN CONSISTENT AND SUPPORTED STRONGLY BY
ENSEMBLE MEMBERS LIFTING A SHORTWAVE AND A COINCIDENT MOISTURE LADEN
AIRMASS INTO THE FORECAST AREA. DEEP MERIDIONAL FLOW WILL RESULT IN
STRONG TRANSPORT OF ANOMALOUS PWATS NORTHWARD...WITH TOTAL PWAT
VALUES IN A 0.75-1.25 RANGE CORRESPONDING TO 2-3 NORMALIZED STANDARD
DEVIATIONS ABOVE NORMAL. THE INITIAL NOSE OF WELL DEFINED DEEP HIGH
THETA-E AIR WILL BE ENTRAINED NORTHWESTWARD THROUGHOUT A REGION OF
BROAD ISENTROPIC ASCENT AND GENERALIZED DYNAMIC LIFT (WITH A
DISTINCT NEGATIVE U-COMPONENT JET LEVEL TRAJECTORY). MODEL TRENDS
CONTINUE TO SUGGEST THIS PLUME INITIALLY TRANSPORTED MORE
WESTWARD THAN NORTHWARD...AND HIGHER POPS DURING DAYLIGHT HOURS HAVE
BEEN TAILORED TOWARDS WRN ARIZONA PRIOR TO SUNSET.

WHILE DRY AIR AND EASTERLY FLOW IN THE SFC-H7 LAYER MAY INITIALLY
HAMPER PRECIPITATION REACHING THE GROUND OVER CNTRL ARIZONA MONDAY
AFTERNOON...THE SURGE OF HIGHER THETA-E AIR AND INCREASING DYNAMICS
SHOULD EVENTUALLY OVERCOME THIS NEGATING FACTOR MONDAY EVENING.
HOWEVER AS QUICKLY AS THE SYSTEM AND ASSOCIATED LIFT ENTER THE
REGION...THE PASSAGE OF THE TROUGH AXIS AND SUBSEQUENT DOWNGLIDE
SINKING MOTION WILL ENVELOP THE AREA TUESDAY MORNING. RESIDUAL
MOISTURE IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER AND PERSISTENT SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL
AID IN MAINTAINING LOW CLOUD COVER...THOUGH PROCESSES CONDUCIVE FOR
RAINFALL WILL RAPIDLY ABATE. ALL TOLD...STORM TOTAL QPF VALUES STILL
DISPLAY A LARGE RANGE AMONG OPERATIONAL AND ENSEMBLE MEMBERS...AND
HAVE FOLLOWED AN ENSEMBLE MEAN APPROACH SUGGESTING AMOUNTS IN A
0.25-0.50 RANGE THROUGH THE LOWER COLORADO RIVER VALLEY...AND
0.10-0.25 AROUND THE PHOENIX METRO.

HE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL ACCELERATE NORTHWARD TUESDAY AFTERNOON
AS THE RIDGE DRIFTS EASTWARD INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. MORE
WIDESPREAD SUBSIDENCE WILL OVERSPREAD SOUTHERN ARIZONA WITH ONLY A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF RESIDUAL SHOWERS ACROSS THE CENTRAL DESERTS TUESDAY
(AND MORE LIKELY VERY LIMITED TO THE UPSLOPE AREAS NORTH AND EAST OF
PHOENIX). MUCH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND HIGHER THAN NORMAL
HUMIDITIES WILL PREVAIL THROUGH NEXT WEEK AS A RIDGE BECOMES
REESTABLISHED TO OUR SOUTH ACROSS MEXICO AND GENERAL SOUTHERLY FLOW
PERSISTS. ABUNDANT MID AND HIGH CLOUDS WILL ALSO PREVAIL...AND
DEPENDING ON THICKNESS MAY HINDER FULL INSOLATION AND HIGH
TEMPERATURES ON ANY GIVEN DAY. GLOBAL MODELS CONTINUE TO SUGGEST
THAT ANOTHER PACIFIC LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL AFFECT THE REGION LATE
NEXT WEEK...THOUGH RUN-TO-RUN CONSISTENCY IS LACKING. THIS SYSTEM
APPEARS SLOWER THAN ITS PREDECESSOR AND HAS THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE
PRECIPITATION SOMETIME IN THE FRIDAY-SUNDAY TIME FRAME...THOUGH THE
EXACT TIMING IS UNCERTAIN THIS FAR OUT. HAVE COMPLETELY DISCOUNTED
THE ABRUPT CHANGE AND MOST INTENSE 12Z OPERATIONAL GFS SOLUTION WITH
LITTLE TO NO ENSEMBLE SUPPORT AT THIS TIME.

&&

.AVIATION...
SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA INCLUDING KPHX...KIWA AND KSDL...

LITTLE TO NO AVIATION IMPACTS THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING UNDER MOSTLY
CLEAR SKIES. EASTERLY SFC WINDS WILL BE FAVORED FOR THE ENTIRE
PERIOD...ALTHOUGH WINDS MAY BECOME RATHER LIGHT/VARIABLE OR EVEN
LIGHT WEST LATER IN THE AFTERNOON SUNDAY...MORESO AT KIWA THAN
KPHX.

FOR PLANNING PURPOSES...RAIN SHOWERS AND LOWERING CIGS SHOULD IMPACT
TERMINAL SITES LATER MONDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING. AT
THIS TIME...IT APPEARS ANY RAIN WOULD BE DELAYED UNTIL AFTER 21Z
MONDAY AND CIGS FALLING BELOW 6K FT WOULD BE FAVORED AFTER 00Z.
CONFIDENCE IS FAIR THAT CIGS WILL BE MAINTAINED IN A 4K-6K FT LAYER
MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING.

SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA AND SOUTHWEST ARIZONA INCLUDING KIPL AND KBLH...

VERY LITTLE AVIATION IMPACTS THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON WITH MOSTLY
CLEAR SKIES. WINDS WILL STILL FAVOR THE NORTH TO NORTHEAST AT KBLH
NEXT 24 HOURS WITH SPEEDS MOSTLY AOB 12KT.

AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDED TAFS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL PERSIST THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD AS
SOUTHERLY FLOW TAKES HOLD ACROSS THE DESERT SOUTHWEST. A LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE NORTHWARD OFF THE COAST OF BAJA AND
CALIFORNIA BRINGING GOOD CHANCES FOR RAIN ON MONDAY INTO EARLY
TUESDAY. FAIRLY MOIST CONDITIONS WILL ONLY LEAD TO MINIMUM
HUMIDITIES EACH AFTERNOON IN THE 25 TO 35 PERCENT RANGE ACROSS THE
LOWER DESERTS. WITH THE EXCEPTION OF SOME OCCASIONAL AFTERNOON
BREEZINESS...WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT THROUGH THE ENTIRE PERIOD.

&&

.PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

AZ...NONE.

CA...NONE.

&&

$$

VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/PHOENIX

DISCUSSION...CB
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...MO/HIRSCH
AVIATION...MO/CB
FIRE WEATHER...KUHLMAN










000
FXUS65 KPSR 250349
AFDPSR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PHOENIX AZ
850 PM MST SAT JAN 24 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
STRONG HIGH PRESSURE WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE WESTERN STATES THIS
WEEKEND...RESULTING IN SUNNY SKIES AND UNUSUALLY WARM WEATHER. A LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA MONDAY...BRINGING AN
INCREASE IN MOISTURE AND LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS. IN ITS WAKE...ABOVE
NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND HIGHER THAN NORMAL HUMIDITIES WILL PREVAIL
THROUGH NEXT WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
REX-BLOCK TYPE PATTERN CONTINUED TO DEVELOP ALONG THE WEST COAST
EARLY THIS EVENING...AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILT INLAND OVER THE CA COAST
WHILE AN UPPER LOW TOOK SHAPE TO THE SOUTH...SPINNING ALONG THE
CENTRAL BAJA COAST. THE DEVELOPING UPPER LOW WAS CLEARLY SEEN IN THE
LATEST VAPOR IMAGERY. DRY NELY FLOW ALOFT WAS PRESENT ACROSS MUCH OF
ARIZONA AS SEEN IN THE EVENING SOUNDINGS...CAUSING PWAT VALUES TO
FALL WELL BELOW ONE QUARTER INCH. H5 HEIGHTS ACROSS NRN AZ WERE UP
TO 578DM...AND LOCALLY BREEZY CONDITIONS TODAY OVER THE CENTRAL
DESERTS HELPED MIX SOME OF THE WARMING ALOFT DOWN TO THE SURFACE.
PHOENIX TOPPED OUT AT 77 DEGREES...9 DEGREES ABOVE SEASONAL NORMALS.

FOR THE REST OF TONIGHT...EXPECT MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES ALONG WITH COOL
OVERNIGHT LOWS. LOW LEVEL GRADIENTS WILL RELAX SLIGHTLY ALLOWING FOR
LESS WIND...BUT THERE MAY STILL BE LOCALLY BREEZY EAST/NORTHEAST
WINDS PRESENT ACROSS THE CENTRAL DESERTS OVERNIGHT. CURRENT
FORECASTS LOOK TO BE IN GOOD SHAPE AND NO UPDATES ARE NEEDED ATTM.

.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
THE FORMATIVE STAGES OF A TEMPORARY REX-TYPE BLOCK WERE
MATERIALIZING ACROSS THE WRN CONUS EARLY THIS AFTERNOON WITH THE
CUTOFF SOUTHERN STREAM LOW SLOWLY RETROGRADING WEST OF THE BAJA
PENINSULA. IN THIS EVOLUTION...FLOW ALOFT THROUGH NRN MEXICO WAS
ALREADY BACKING MORE MERIDIONAL STARTING TO PULL THICKER MID/HIGH
LEVEL MOISTURE NORTHWARD TOWARDS SERN ARIZONA. HOWEVER...UPSTREAM
SUBSIDENCE ON THE EASTERN SIDE OF THE RIDGE AXIS HAS BEEN A
SIGNIFICANT LIMITING FACTOR TOWARDS THE EXPANSION OF HIGH CLOUDS.
THIS PATTERN CONFIGURATION (AND TRANQUIL WEATHER) WILL HOLD THROUGH
SUNDAY EVENING UNTIL THE COUNTERPART NORTHERN STREAM RIDGE FOLDS
OVER INTO THE CNTRL ROCKIES...ALLOWING THE AFOREMENTIONED CUTOFF TO
BE PICKED UP AND EJECTED THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA MONDAY AND
TUESDAY.

VERY LITTLE CHANGE IN FORECAST THINKING MONDAY AND TUESDAY AS
OPERATIONAL MODELS REMAIN CONSISTENT AND SUPPORTED STRONGLY BY
ENSEMBLE MEMBERS LIFTING A SHORTWAVE AND A COINCIDENT MOISTURE LADEN
AIRMASS INTO THE FORECAST AREA. DEEP MERIDIONAL FLOW WILL RESULT IN
STRONG TRANSPORT OF ANOMALOUS PWATS NORTHWARD...WITH TOTAL PWAT
VALUES IN A 0.75-1.25 RANGE CORRESPONDING TO 2-3 NORMALIZED STANDARD
DEVIATIONS ABOVE NORMAL. THE INITIAL NOSE OF WELL DEFINED DEEP HIGH
THETA-E AIR WILL BE ENTRAINED NORTHWESTWARD THROUGHOUT A REGION OF
BROAD ISENTROPIC ASCENT AND GENERALIZED DYNAMIC LIFT (WITH A
DISTINCT NEGATIVE U-COMPONENT JET LEVEL TRAJECTORY). MODEL TRENDS
CONTINUE TO SUGGEST THIS PLUME INITIALLY TRANSPORTED MORE
WESTWARD THAN NORTHWARD...AND HIGHER POPS DURING DAYLIGHT HOURS HAVE
BEEN TAILORED TOWARDS WRN ARIZONA PRIOR TO SUNSET.

WHILE DRY AIR AND EASTERLY FLOW IN THE SFC-H7 LAYER MAY INITIALLY
HAMPER PRECIPITATION REACHING THE GROUND OVER CNTRL ARIZONA MONDAY
AFTERNOON...THE SURGE OF HIGHER THETA-E AIR AND INCREASING DYNAMICS
SHOULD EVENTUALLY OVERCOME THIS NEGATING FACTOR MONDAY EVENING.
HOWEVER AS QUICKLY AS THE SYSTEM AND ASSOCIATED LIFT ENTER THE
REGION...THE PASSAGE OF THE TROUGH AXIS AND SUBSEQUENT DOWNGLIDE
SINKING MOTION WILL ENVELOP THE AREA TUESDAY MORNING. RESIDUAL
MOISTURE IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER AND PERSISTENT SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL
AID IN MAINTAINING LOW CLOUD COVER...THOUGH PROCESSES CONDUCIVE FOR
RAINFALL WILL RAPIDLY ABATE. ALL TOLD...STORM TOTAL QPF VALUES STILL
DISPLAY A LARGE RANGE AMONG OPERATIONAL AND ENSEMBLE MEMBERS...AND
HAVE FOLLOWED AN ENSEMBLE MEAN APPROACH SUGGESTING AMOUNTS IN A
0.25-0.50 RANGE THROUGH THE LOWER COLORADO RIVER VALLEY...AND
0.10-0.25 AROUND THE PHOENIX METRO.

HE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL ACCELERATE NORTHWARD TUESDAY AFTERNOON
AS THE RIDGE DRIFTS EASTWARD INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. MORE
WIDESPREAD SUBSIDENCE WILL OVERSPREAD SOUTHERN ARIZONA WITH ONLY A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF RESIDUAL SHOWERS ACROSS THE CENTRAL DESERTS TUESDAY
(AND MORE LIKELY VERY LIMITED TO THE UPSLOPE AREAS NORTH AND EAST OF
PHOENIX). MUCH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND HIGHER THAN NORMAL
HUMIDITIES WILL PREVAIL THROUGH NEXT WEEK AS A RIDGE BECOMES
REESTABLISHED TO OUR SOUTH ACROSS MEXICO AND GENERAL SOUTHERLY FLOW
PERSISTS. ABUNDANT MID AND HIGH CLOUDS WILL ALSO PREVAIL...AND
DEPENDING ON THICKNESS MAY HINDER FULL INSOLATION AND HIGH
TEMPERATURES ON ANY GIVEN DAY. GLOBAL MODELS CONTINUE TO SUGGEST
THAT ANOTHER PACIFIC LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL AFFECT THE REGION LATE
NEXT WEEK...THOUGH RUN-TO-RUN CONSISTENCY IS LACKING. THIS SYSTEM
APPEARS SLOWER THAN ITS PREDECESSOR AND HAS THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE
PRECIPITATION SOMETIME IN THE FRIDAY-SUNDAY TIME FRAME...THOUGH THE
EXACT TIMING IS UNCERTAIN THIS FAR OUT. HAVE COMPLETELY DISCOUNTED
THE ABRUPT CHANGE AND MOST INTENSE 12Z OPERATIONAL GFS SOLUTION WITH
LITTLE TO NO ENSEMBLE SUPPORT AT THIS TIME.

&&

.AVIATION...
SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA INCLUDING KPHX...KIWA AND KSDL...

LITTLE TO NO AVIATION IMPACTS THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING UNDER MOSTLY
CLEAR SKIES. EASTERLY SFC WINDS WILL BE FAVORED FOR THE ENTIRE
PERIOD...ALTHOUGH WINDS MAY BECOME RATHER LIGHT/VARIABLE OR EVEN
LIGHT WEST LATER IN THE AFTERNOON SUNDAY...MORESO AT KIWA THAN
KPHX.

FOR PLANNING PURPOSES...RAIN SHOWERS AND LOWERING CIGS SHOULD IMPACT
TERMINAL SITES LATER MONDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING. AT
THIS TIME...IT APPEARS ANY RAIN WOULD BE DELAYED UNTIL AFTER 21Z
MONDAY AND CIGS FALLING BELOW 6K FT WOULD BE FAVORED AFTER 00Z.
CONFIDENCE IS FAIR THAT CIGS WILL BE MAINTAINED IN A 4K-6K FT LAYER
MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING.

SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA AND SOUTHWEST ARIZONA INCLUDING KIPL AND KBLH...

VERY LITTLE AVIATION IMPACTS THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON WITH MOSTLY
CLEAR SKIES. WINDS WILL STILL FAVOR THE NORTH TO NORTHEAST AT KBLH
NEXT 24 HOURS WITH SPEEDS MOSTLY AOB 12KT.

AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDED TAFS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL PERSIST THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD AS
SOUTHERLY FLOW TAKES HOLD ACROSS THE DESERT SOUTHWEST. A LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE NORTHWARD OFF THE COAST OF BAJA AND
CALIFORNIA BRINGING GOOD CHANCES FOR RAIN ON MONDAY INTO EARLY
TUESDAY. FAIRLY MOIST CONDITIONS WILL ONLY LEAD TO MINIMUM
HUMIDITIES EACH AFTERNOON IN THE 25 TO 35 PERCENT RANGE ACROSS THE
LOWER DESERTS. WITH THE EXCEPTION OF SOME OCCASIONAL AFTERNOON
BREEZINESS...WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT THROUGH THE ENTIRE PERIOD.

&&

.PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

AZ...NONE.

CA...NONE.

&&

$$

VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/PHOENIX

DISCUSSION...CB
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...MO/HIRSCH
AVIATION...MO/CB
FIRE WEATHER...KUHLMAN









000
FXUS65 KTWC 250338
AFDTWC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ
840 PM MST SAT JAN 24 2015

.SYNOPSIS...SEASONAL DAYTIME TEMPERATURES AND EASTERLY BREEZES WILL
PREVAIL THIS WEEKEND. INCREASING MOISTURE FROM THE SOUTH WILL BRING
THICKENING CLOUDS AND SHOWERS TO SOUTHERN ARIZONA MONDAY INTO EARLY
TUESDAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...STILL DRY IN LOW LEVELS WITH SURFACE DEW POINTS IN THE
TEENS THIS EVENING AND 00Z KTWC SOUNDING AT .14 INCH PRECIPITABLE
WATER. HOWEVER...THE LOW STRENGTHENING NEAR THE WEST COAST OF BAJA
IS ALREADY STARTING TO DO IT`S WORK GUIDING MOISTURE NORTHWARD.
CIRRUS LEVEL MOISTURE CONTINUES TO INCREASE...AND MORE IMPORTANTLY
SATELLITE BLENDED TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER ESTIMATES SHOW .9 INCH
VALUES HAVE PUSHED NORTH INTO CENTRAL SONORA AND THE CENTRAL GULF OF
CALIFORNIA AS OF 8 PM.

00Z NAMDNG5 IS FOLLOWING THE 18Z GFS AND 12Z ECMWF IN SLOWING THINGS
DOWN JUST A TOUCH IN SPREADING SIGNIFICANT SHOWERS NORTHWARD
MONDAY...SO WE BLENDED IN ABOUT 30 PERCENT OF THIS TREND FROM THE
NAM INTO CURRENT GRIDS FOR MONDAY MORNING AND AFTERNOON. WE ALSO
TWEAKED A BIT HERE AND THERE FOR CURRENT CLOUD TRENDS. OTHERWISE THE
FORECAST FROM THE DAY SHIFT HAS SOLID TRENDS.

MODELS ARE PROBABLY UNDERDOING THIS SYSTEM A BIT AS MOISTURE FIELDS
ARE TYPICALLY UNDERESTIMATED IN THESE SCENARIOS.

&&

.AVIATION...VALID THRU 26/06Z.
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE PERIOD. HIGH CLOUDS WILL BE
ON THE INCREASE FROM SOUTH TO NORTH OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS WITH
SCATTERED MID CLOUD STARTING TO FILTER IN FROM THE SOUTH LATE
SUNDAY. EASTERLY SURFACE WINDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE PERIOD.
GENERALLY LESS THAN 10 KTS OVERNIGHT. A MODEST INCREASE IN SPEEDS
WILL OCCUR AGAIN SUNDAY MORNING...GENERALLY AT 8-12 KTS WITH GUST TO
20 KTS POSSIBLE.  AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR TAF AMENDMENTS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...GUSTY EAST TO SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL OCCUR FOR MUCH OF
THE AREA OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. SPEEDS WILL BE 10-15 MPH WITH
A FEW HIGHER GUSTS MAINLY DURING THE DAYTIME. DRY CONDITIONS WILL
PERSIST THROUGH TOMORROW. AN INCREASE IN MOISTURE AND A HIGH
POTENTIAL OF SHOWERS WILL OCCUR MONDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY
MORNING. THE BEST CHANCE FOR SHOWERS WILL BE MONDAY AFTERNOON INTO
MONDAY NIGHT. DRY WEATHER WILL RETURN TUESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH
THURSDAY BEFORE ANOTHER DISTURBANCE BRINGS A THREAT OF SHOWERS ONCE
AGAIN LATE NEXT WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...HIGH CLOUDS CONTINUE TO THIN AS THEY EDGE
NORTHWARD INTO SE AZ FROM SONORA.  ABUNDANT SUNSHINE...BREEZY EAST
WINDS AND DRY AIR HAS ALLOWED TEMPERATURES TO WARM NICELY THIS
AFTERNOON.   UPPER LOW CHURNING WEST OF BAJA CA WILL EVENTUALLY SEND
DEEPER MOISTURE NORTHWARD BUT NOT BEFORE ANOTHER STELLAR AFTERNOON
ACROSS SE AZ WITH SUNDAY TEMPS EVEN A DEGREE OR TWO WARMER THAN
TODAY.

FOR SE AZ...EXPECT THE BULK OF THE RAIN ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW
PRESSURE AREA TO OCCUR DURING THE DAYTIME MONDAY INTO MONDAY EVENING
WITH A FEW LINGERING SHOWERS MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. FAIRLY QUICK
MOVING SHOWERS SHOULD LEAD TO MOST AREAS SEEING AT LEAST SOME RAIN
ALTHOUGH AMOUNTS IN ANY GIVEN LOCATION ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BE ALL
THAT HEAVY.  IN GENERAL...A QUARTER TO HALF INCH RAIN AMOUNTS WILL
BE COMMON. WITH SUCH A WARM AIR MASS...SNOW LEVELS WILL BE AROUND
THE HIGHER MOUNTAIN TOPS AND VERY LITTLE SNOW ACCUMULATION IS
ANTICIPATED WITH THIS PARTICULAR ROUND OF PRECIPITATION.

CLOUDS AND RAIN WILL AFFECT TEMPERATURES AS MOST SPOTS STRUGGLE TO
REACH NORMAL HIGHS MONDAY. AS CLOUDS EXIT THE AREA TUESDAY...
TEMPERATURES SHOULD REBOUND TO NORMAL READINGS IN THE AFTERNOON. THE
WARMEST DAYS OF THE WEEK MAY BE WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.

ANOTHER PACIFIC WEATHER SYSTEM WILL BEGIN TO SPREAD CLOUDS INTO SE
AZ THURSDAY WITH A DECENT CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION FRIDAY INTO
SUPERBOWL WEEKEND.

&&

.TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...YOUTUBE...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/TUCSON

MEYER/DROZD






000
FXUS65 KTWC 250338
AFDTWC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ
840 PM MST SAT JAN 24 2015

.SYNOPSIS...SEASONAL DAYTIME TEMPERATURES AND EASTERLY BREEZES WILL
PREVAIL THIS WEEKEND. INCREASING MOISTURE FROM THE SOUTH WILL BRING
THICKENING CLOUDS AND SHOWERS TO SOUTHERN ARIZONA MONDAY INTO EARLY
TUESDAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...STILL DRY IN LOW LEVELS WITH SURFACE DEW POINTS IN THE
TEENS THIS EVENING AND 00Z KTWC SOUNDING AT .14 INCH PRECIPITABLE
WATER. HOWEVER...THE LOW STRENGTHENING NEAR THE WEST COAST OF BAJA
IS ALREADY STARTING TO DO IT`S WORK GUIDING MOISTURE NORTHWARD.
CIRRUS LEVEL MOISTURE CONTINUES TO INCREASE...AND MORE IMPORTANTLY
SATELLITE BLENDED TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER ESTIMATES SHOW .9 INCH
VALUES HAVE PUSHED NORTH INTO CENTRAL SONORA AND THE CENTRAL GULF OF
CALIFORNIA AS OF 8 PM.

00Z NAMDNG5 IS FOLLOWING THE 18Z GFS AND 12Z ECMWF IN SLOWING THINGS
DOWN JUST A TOUCH IN SPREADING SIGNIFICANT SHOWERS NORTHWARD
MONDAY...SO WE BLENDED IN ABOUT 30 PERCENT OF THIS TREND FROM THE
NAM INTO CURRENT GRIDS FOR MONDAY MORNING AND AFTERNOON. WE ALSO
TWEAKED A BIT HERE AND THERE FOR CURRENT CLOUD TRENDS. OTHERWISE THE
FORECAST FROM THE DAY SHIFT HAS SOLID TRENDS.

MODELS ARE PROBABLY UNDERDOING THIS SYSTEM A BIT AS MOISTURE FIELDS
ARE TYPICALLY UNDERESTIMATED IN THESE SCENARIOS.

&&

.AVIATION...VALID THRU 26/06Z.
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE PERIOD. HIGH CLOUDS WILL BE
ON THE INCREASE FROM SOUTH TO NORTH OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS WITH
SCATTERED MID CLOUD STARTING TO FILTER IN FROM THE SOUTH LATE
SUNDAY. EASTERLY SURFACE WINDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE PERIOD.
GENERALLY LESS THAN 10 KTS OVERNIGHT. A MODEST INCREASE IN SPEEDS
WILL OCCUR AGAIN SUNDAY MORNING...GENERALLY AT 8-12 KTS WITH GUST TO
20 KTS POSSIBLE.  AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR TAF AMENDMENTS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...GUSTY EAST TO SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL OCCUR FOR MUCH OF
THE AREA OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. SPEEDS WILL BE 10-15 MPH WITH
A FEW HIGHER GUSTS MAINLY DURING THE DAYTIME. DRY CONDITIONS WILL
PERSIST THROUGH TOMORROW. AN INCREASE IN MOISTURE AND A HIGH
POTENTIAL OF SHOWERS WILL OCCUR MONDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY
MORNING. THE BEST CHANCE FOR SHOWERS WILL BE MONDAY AFTERNOON INTO
MONDAY NIGHT. DRY WEATHER WILL RETURN TUESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH
THURSDAY BEFORE ANOTHER DISTURBANCE BRINGS A THREAT OF SHOWERS ONCE
AGAIN LATE NEXT WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...HIGH CLOUDS CONTINUE TO THIN AS THEY EDGE
NORTHWARD INTO SE AZ FROM SONORA.  ABUNDANT SUNSHINE...BREEZY EAST
WINDS AND DRY AIR HAS ALLOWED TEMPERATURES TO WARM NICELY THIS
AFTERNOON.   UPPER LOW CHURNING WEST OF BAJA CA WILL EVENTUALLY SEND
DEEPER MOISTURE NORTHWARD BUT NOT BEFORE ANOTHER STELLAR AFTERNOON
ACROSS SE AZ WITH SUNDAY TEMPS EVEN A DEGREE OR TWO WARMER THAN
TODAY.

FOR SE AZ...EXPECT THE BULK OF THE RAIN ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW
PRESSURE AREA TO OCCUR DURING THE DAYTIME MONDAY INTO MONDAY EVENING
WITH A FEW LINGERING SHOWERS MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. FAIRLY QUICK
MOVING SHOWERS SHOULD LEAD TO MOST AREAS SEEING AT LEAST SOME RAIN
ALTHOUGH AMOUNTS IN ANY GIVEN LOCATION ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BE ALL
THAT HEAVY.  IN GENERAL...A QUARTER TO HALF INCH RAIN AMOUNTS WILL
BE COMMON. WITH SUCH A WARM AIR MASS...SNOW LEVELS WILL BE AROUND
THE HIGHER MOUNTAIN TOPS AND VERY LITTLE SNOW ACCUMULATION IS
ANTICIPATED WITH THIS PARTICULAR ROUND OF PRECIPITATION.

CLOUDS AND RAIN WILL AFFECT TEMPERATURES AS MOST SPOTS STRUGGLE TO
REACH NORMAL HIGHS MONDAY. AS CLOUDS EXIT THE AREA TUESDAY...
TEMPERATURES SHOULD REBOUND TO NORMAL READINGS IN THE AFTERNOON. THE
WARMEST DAYS OF THE WEEK MAY BE WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.

ANOTHER PACIFIC WEATHER SYSTEM WILL BEGIN TO SPREAD CLOUDS INTO SE
AZ THURSDAY WITH A DECENT CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION FRIDAY INTO
SUPERBOWL WEEKEND.

&&

.TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...YOUTUBE...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/TUCSON

MEYER/DROZD







000
FXUS65 KFGZ 242228
AFDFGZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ
330 PM MST SAT JAN 24 2015

.SYNOPSIS...EXPECT DRY AND RELATIVELY MILD WEATHER ACROSS NORTHERN
ARIZONA THIS WEEKEND. STARTING MONDAY...A SUB-TROPICAL AIRMASS WILL
MOVE INTO ARIZONA...RESULTING IN PERIODS OF MAINLY RAIN SHOWERS ON
MONDAY AND TUESDAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...NORTHEAST FLOW WILL CONTINUE TODAY AND SUNDAY. THIS
WILL KEEP AREAS ALONG AND NORTHEAST OF THE RIM 5-10 DEGREES COOLER
THAN WHAT WOULD OTHERWISE BE PRODUCED BY THE RIDGE BUILDING TO OUR
NORTHWEST. AREAS SOUTH AND WEST OF THE RIM WILL SEE TEMPERATURES
WELL ABOVE NORMAL.

A SUB-TROPICAL RAIN EVENT STILL LOOKS LIKELY FOR LATE MONDAY THROUGH
TUESDAY. THIS WILL BE A HIGH PROBABILITY EVENT...WITH LOW TO LOCALLY
MODERATE QPF AMOUNTS. MODELS ARE REMAINING CONSISTENT WITH THIS IN
THE AFTERNOON RUNS...WE RAISED POPS A BIT MORE...BUT THE OVERALL
LOOK WILL REMAIN THE SAME.

LATER IN THE WEEK...A WEAK MEAN TROUGH WILL REMAIN OFF THE SOUTHERN
CALIFORNIA COAST...ROUGHLY ANCHORED SOUTH OF THE MEAN WEST COAST
RIDGE. AS LONG AS THIS LOW REMAINS IN PLACE...IT WILL HAVE THE
ABILITY TO SEND OCCASIONAL BURSTS OF SUB-TROPICAL MOISTURE OUR WAY.
MOST MODELS SUGGEST THIS HAPPENING AGAIN NEXT FRIDAY AND INTO THE
WEEKEND...HOWEVER...THERE ARE SOME DIFFERENCES.

THE 12Z GFS AND TO SOME EXTENT THE CANADIAN...DEVELOPED A DRAMATIC
CHANGE FOR THE SECOND SYSTEM. THESE RUNS NOW INJECT A COLD CANADIAN
AIRMASS INTO THE SUB-TROPICAL MOISTURE STREAM...CREATING A LARGE
AMOUNT OF QPF OVER ARIZONA. THIS IS AN OUTLIER SOLUTION...BUT THE
18Z GFS STILL HAS SOME...ALBEIT WEAKER...SUPPORT FOR THIS. WE HAVE
RAISED POPS AGAIN LATE IN THE WEEK AND OVER THE WEEKEND...BUT NOT
NEARLY TO THE EXTENT THE OUTLIER SOLUTIONS SUGGEST. WE WILL KEEP AN
EYE ON THIS...AS THINGS WILL UNDOUBTEDLY CHANGE.

&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 00Z PACKAGE...VFR CONDITIONS FOR THE NEXT 24
HOURS UNDER SKC-SCT CIRRUS. SURFACE WINDS N-NE 10-20KT ALONG AND
SOUTHWEST OF THE MOGOLLON RIM/KAIBAB PLATEAU...LIGHT AND VARIABLE
ELSEWHERE. AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR TAF AMENDMENTS.

&&

.FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC.....PETERSON
AVIATION...MAS

FOR NORTHERN ARIZONA WEATHER INFORMATION VISIT
WEATHER.GOV/FLAGSTAFF







000
FXUS65 KFGZ 242228
AFDFGZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ
330 PM MST SAT JAN 24 2015

.SYNOPSIS...EXPECT DRY AND RELATIVELY MILD WEATHER ACROSS NORTHERN
ARIZONA THIS WEEKEND. STARTING MONDAY...A SUB-TROPICAL AIRMASS WILL
MOVE INTO ARIZONA...RESULTING IN PERIODS OF MAINLY RAIN SHOWERS ON
MONDAY AND TUESDAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...NORTHEAST FLOW WILL CONTINUE TODAY AND SUNDAY. THIS
WILL KEEP AREAS ALONG AND NORTHEAST OF THE RIM 5-10 DEGREES COOLER
THAN WHAT WOULD OTHERWISE BE PRODUCED BY THE RIDGE BUILDING TO OUR
NORTHWEST. AREAS SOUTH AND WEST OF THE RIM WILL SEE TEMPERATURES
WELL ABOVE NORMAL.

A SUB-TROPICAL RAIN EVENT STILL LOOKS LIKELY FOR LATE MONDAY THROUGH
TUESDAY. THIS WILL BE A HIGH PROBABILITY EVENT...WITH LOW TO LOCALLY
MODERATE QPF AMOUNTS. MODELS ARE REMAINING CONSISTENT WITH THIS IN
THE AFTERNOON RUNS...WE RAISED POPS A BIT MORE...BUT THE OVERALL
LOOK WILL REMAIN THE SAME.

LATER IN THE WEEK...A WEAK MEAN TROUGH WILL REMAIN OFF THE SOUTHERN
CALIFORNIA COAST...ROUGHLY ANCHORED SOUTH OF THE MEAN WEST COAST
RIDGE. AS LONG AS THIS LOW REMAINS IN PLACE...IT WILL HAVE THE
ABILITY TO SEND OCCASIONAL BURSTS OF SUB-TROPICAL MOISTURE OUR WAY.
MOST MODELS SUGGEST THIS HAPPENING AGAIN NEXT FRIDAY AND INTO THE
WEEKEND...HOWEVER...THERE ARE SOME DIFFERENCES.

THE 12Z GFS AND TO SOME EXTENT THE CANADIAN...DEVELOPED A DRAMATIC
CHANGE FOR THE SECOND SYSTEM. THESE RUNS NOW INJECT A COLD CANADIAN
AIRMASS INTO THE SUB-TROPICAL MOISTURE STREAM...CREATING A LARGE
AMOUNT OF QPF OVER ARIZONA. THIS IS AN OUTLIER SOLUTION...BUT THE
18Z GFS STILL HAS SOME...ALBEIT WEAKER...SUPPORT FOR THIS. WE HAVE
RAISED POPS AGAIN LATE IN THE WEEK AND OVER THE WEEKEND...BUT NOT
NEARLY TO THE EXTENT THE OUTLIER SOLUTIONS SUGGEST. WE WILL KEEP AN
EYE ON THIS...AS THINGS WILL UNDOUBTEDLY CHANGE.

&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 00Z PACKAGE...VFR CONDITIONS FOR THE NEXT 24
HOURS UNDER SKC-SCT CIRRUS. SURFACE WINDS N-NE 10-20KT ALONG AND
SOUTHWEST OF THE MOGOLLON RIM/KAIBAB PLATEAU...LIGHT AND VARIABLE
ELSEWHERE. AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR TAF AMENDMENTS.

&&

.FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC.....PETERSON
AVIATION...MAS

FOR NORTHERN ARIZONA WEATHER INFORMATION VISIT
WEATHER.GOV/FLAGSTAFF






000
FXUS65 KTWC 242135
AFDTWC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ
235 PM MST SAT JAN 24 2015

.SYNOPSIS...SEASONAL DAYTIME TEMPERATURES AND EASTERLY BREEZES WILL
PREVAIL THIS WEEKEND. INCREASING MOISTURE FROM THE SOUTH WILL BRING
THICKENING CLOUDS AND WIDESPREAD SHOWERS TO SOUTHERN ARIZONA MONDAY
INTO EARLY TUESDAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...HIGH CLOUDS CONTINUE TO THIN AS THEY EDGE NORTHWARD
INTO SE AZ FROM SONORA.  ABUNDANT SUNSHINE...BREEZY EAST WINDS AND
DRY AIR HAS ALLOWED TEMPERATURES TO WARM NICELY THIS AFTERNOON.
UPPER LOW CHURNING WEST OF BAJA CA WILL EVENTUALLY SEND DEEPER
MOISTURE NORTHWARD BUT NOT BEFORE ANOTHER STELLAR AFTERNOON ACROSS
SE AZ WITH SUNDAY TEMPS EVEN A DEGREE OR TWO WARMER THAN TODAY.

FOR SE AZ...EXPECT THE BULK OF THE RAIN ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW
PRESSURE AREA TO OCCUR DURING THE DAYTIME MONDAY INTO MONDAY EVENING
WITH A FEW LINGERING SHOWERS MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. FAIRLY QUICK
MOVING SHOWERS SHOULD LEAD TO MOST AREAS SEEING AT LEAST SOME RAIN
ALTHOUGH AMOUNTS IN ANY GIVEN LOCATION ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BE ALL
THAT HEAVY.  IN GENERAL...A QUARTER TO HALF INCH RAIN AMOUNTS WILL
BE COMMON. WITH SUCH A WARM AIR MASS...SNOW LEVELS WILL BE AROUND
THE HIGHER MOUNTAIN TOPS AND VERY LITTLE SNOW ACCUMULATION IS
ANTICIPATED WITH THIS PARTICULAR ROUND OF PRECIPITATION.

CLOUDS AND RAIN WILL AFFECT TEMPERATURES AS MOST SPOTS STRUGGLE TO
REACH NORMAL HIGHS MONDAY. AS CLOUDS EXIT THE AREA TUESDAY...
TEMPERATURES SHOULD REBOUND TO NORMAL READINGS IN THE AFTERNOON. THE
WARMEST DAYS OF THE WEEK MAY BE WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.

ANOTHER PACIFIC WEATHER SYSTEM WILL BEGIN TO SPREAD CLOUDS INTO SE
AZ THURSDAY WITH A DECENT CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION FRIDAY INTO
SUPERBOWL WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION...VALID THRU 26/00Z.
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE PERIOD. HIGH CLOUDS WILL BE
ON THE INCREASE FROM SOUTH TO NORTH OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. EASTERLY
SURFACE WINDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE PERIOD. SPEEDS OF 10-15 KTS
WITH GUSTS UP TO 25 KTS WILL WEAKEN TO LESS THAN 10 KTS AFTER
SUNDOWN. A SLIGHT INCREASE IN SPEEDS WILL OCCUR AGAIN SUNDAY
MORNING...GENERALLY AT 8-12 KTS WITH GUST TO 20 KTS POSSIBLE.
AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR TAF AMENDMENTS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...GUSTY EAST TO SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL OCCUR FOR MUCH OF
THE AREA OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. SPEEDS WILL BE 10-15 MPH WITH
A FEW HIGHER GUSTS MAINLY DURING THE DAYTIME. DRY CONDITIONS WILL
PERSIST THROUGH TOMORROW. AN INCREASE IN MOISTURE AND A HIGH
POTENTIAL OF SHOWERS WILL OCCUR MONDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY
MORNING. THE BEST CHANCE FOR SHOWERS WILL BE MONDAY INTO MONDAY
EVENING. DRY WEATHER WILL RETURN TUESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH THURSDAY
BEFORE ANOTHER DISTURBANCE BRINGS A THREAT OF SHOWERS ONCE AGAIN
LATE NEXT WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND.

&&

.TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...YOUTUBE...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/TUCSON

DROZD







000
FXUS65 KTWC 242135
AFDTWC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ
235 PM MST SAT JAN 24 2015

.SYNOPSIS...SEASONAL DAYTIME TEMPERATURES AND EASTERLY BREEZES WILL
PREVAIL THIS WEEKEND. INCREASING MOISTURE FROM THE SOUTH WILL BRING
THICKENING CLOUDS AND WIDESPREAD SHOWERS TO SOUTHERN ARIZONA MONDAY
INTO EARLY TUESDAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...HIGH CLOUDS CONTINUE TO THIN AS THEY EDGE NORTHWARD
INTO SE AZ FROM SONORA.  ABUNDANT SUNSHINE...BREEZY EAST WINDS AND
DRY AIR HAS ALLOWED TEMPERATURES TO WARM NICELY THIS AFTERNOON.
UPPER LOW CHURNING WEST OF BAJA CA WILL EVENTUALLY SEND DEEPER
MOISTURE NORTHWARD BUT NOT BEFORE ANOTHER STELLAR AFTERNOON ACROSS
SE AZ WITH SUNDAY TEMPS EVEN A DEGREE OR TWO WARMER THAN TODAY.

FOR SE AZ...EXPECT THE BULK OF THE RAIN ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW
PRESSURE AREA TO OCCUR DURING THE DAYTIME MONDAY INTO MONDAY EVENING
WITH A FEW LINGERING SHOWERS MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. FAIRLY QUICK
MOVING SHOWERS SHOULD LEAD TO MOST AREAS SEEING AT LEAST SOME RAIN
ALTHOUGH AMOUNTS IN ANY GIVEN LOCATION ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BE ALL
THAT HEAVY.  IN GENERAL...A QUARTER TO HALF INCH RAIN AMOUNTS WILL
BE COMMON. WITH SUCH A WARM AIR MASS...SNOW LEVELS WILL BE AROUND
THE HIGHER MOUNTAIN TOPS AND VERY LITTLE SNOW ACCUMULATION IS
ANTICIPATED WITH THIS PARTICULAR ROUND OF PRECIPITATION.

CLOUDS AND RAIN WILL AFFECT TEMPERATURES AS MOST SPOTS STRUGGLE TO
REACH NORMAL HIGHS MONDAY. AS CLOUDS EXIT THE AREA TUESDAY...
TEMPERATURES SHOULD REBOUND TO NORMAL READINGS IN THE AFTERNOON. THE
WARMEST DAYS OF THE WEEK MAY BE WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.

ANOTHER PACIFIC WEATHER SYSTEM WILL BEGIN TO SPREAD CLOUDS INTO SE
AZ THURSDAY WITH A DECENT CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION FRIDAY INTO
SUPERBOWL WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION...VALID THRU 26/00Z.
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE PERIOD. HIGH CLOUDS WILL BE
ON THE INCREASE FROM SOUTH TO NORTH OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. EASTERLY
SURFACE WINDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE PERIOD. SPEEDS OF 10-15 KTS
WITH GUSTS UP TO 25 KTS WILL WEAKEN TO LESS THAN 10 KTS AFTER
SUNDOWN. A SLIGHT INCREASE IN SPEEDS WILL OCCUR AGAIN SUNDAY
MORNING...GENERALLY AT 8-12 KTS WITH GUST TO 20 KTS POSSIBLE.
AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR TAF AMENDMENTS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...GUSTY EAST TO SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL OCCUR FOR MUCH OF
THE AREA OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. SPEEDS WILL BE 10-15 MPH WITH
A FEW HIGHER GUSTS MAINLY DURING THE DAYTIME. DRY CONDITIONS WILL
PERSIST THROUGH TOMORROW. AN INCREASE IN MOISTURE AND A HIGH
POTENTIAL OF SHOWERS WILL OCCUR MONDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY
MORNING. THE BEST CHANCE FOR SHOWERS WILL BE MONDAY INTO MONDAY
EVENING. DRY WEATHER WILL RETURN TUESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH THURSDAY
BEFORE ANOTHER DISTURBANCE BRINGS A THREAT OF SHOWERS ONCE AGAIN
LATE NEXT WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND.

&&

.TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...YOUTUBE...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/TUCSON

DROZD








000
FXUS65 KTWC 242135
AFDTWC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ
235 PM MST SAT JAN 24 2015

.SYNOPSIS...SEASONAL DAYTIME TEMPERATURES AND EASTERLY BREEZES WILL
PREVAIL THIS WEEKEND. INCREASING MOISTURE FROM THE SOUTH WILL BRING
THICKENING CLOUDS AND WIDESPREAD SHOWERS TO SOUTHERN ARIZONA MONDAY
INTO EARLY TUESDAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...HIGH CLOUDS CONTINUE TO THIN AS THEY EDGE NORTHWARD
INTO SE AZ FROM SONORA.  ABUNDANT SUNSHINE...BREEZY EAST WINDS AND
DRY AIR HAS ALLOWED TEMPERATURES TO WARM NICELY THIS AFTERNOON.
UPPER LOW CHURNING WEST OF BAJA CA WILL EVENTUALLY SEND DEEPER
MOISTURE NORTHWARD BUT NOT BEFORE ANOTHER STELLAR AFTERNOON ACROSS
SE AZ WITH SUNDAY TEMPS EVEN A DEGREE OR TWO WARMER THAN TODAY.

FOR SE AZ...EXPECT THE BULK OF THE RAIN ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW
PRESSURE AREA TO OCCUR DURING THE DAYTIME MONDAY INTO MONDAY EVENING
WITH A FEW LINGERING SHOWERS MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. FAIRLY QUICK
MOVING SHOWERS SHOULD LEAD TO MOST AREAS SEEING AT LEAST SOME RAIN
ALTHOUGH AMOUNTS IN ANY GIVEN LOCATION ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BE ALL
THAT HEAVY.  IN GENERAL...A QUARTER TO HALF INCH RAIN AMOUNTS WILL
BE COMMON. WITH SUCH A WARM AIR MASS...SNOW LEVELS WILL BE AROUND
THE HIGHER MOUNTAIN TOPS AND VERY LITTLE SNOW ACCUMULATION IS
ANTICIPATED WITH THIS PARTICULAR ROUND OF PRECIPITATION.

CLOUDS AND RAIN WILL AFFECT TEMPERATURES AS MOST SPOTS STRUGGLE TO
REACH NORMAL HIGHS MONDAY. AS CLOUDS EXIT THE AREA TUESDAY...
TEMPERATURES SHOULD REBOUND TO NORMAL READINGS IN THE AFTERNOON. THE
WARMEST DAYS OF THE WEEK MAY BE WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.

ANOTHER PACIFIC WEATHER SYSTEM WILL BEGIN TO SPREAD CLOUDS INTO SE
AZ THURSDAY WITH A DECENT CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION FRIDAY INTO
SUPERBOWL WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION...VALID THRU 26/00Z.
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE PERIOD. HIGH CLOUDS WILL BE
ON THE INCREASE FROM SOUTH TO NORTH OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. EASTERLY
SURFACE WINDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE PERIOD. SPEEDS OF 10-15 KTS
WITH GUSTS UP TO 25 KTS WILL WEAKEN TO LESS THAN 10 KTS AFTER
SUNDOWN. A SLIGHT INCREASE IN SPEEDS WILL OCCUR AGAIN SUNDAY
MORNING...GENERALLY AT 8-12 KTS WITH GUST TO 20 KTS POSSIBLE.
AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR TAF AMENDMENTS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...GUSTY EAST TO SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL OCCUR FOR MUCH OF
THE AREA OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. SPEEDS WILL BE 10-15 MPH WITH
A FEW HIGHER GUSTS MAINLY DURING THE DAYTIME. DRY CONDITIONS WILL
PERSIST THROUGH TOMORROW. AN INCREASE IN MOISTURE AND A HIGH
POTENTIAL OF SHOWERS WILL OCCUR MONDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY
MORNING. THE BEST CHANCE FOR SHOWERS WILL BE MONDAY INTO MONDAY
EVENING. DRY WEATHER WILL RETURN TUESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH THURSDAY
BEFORE ANOTHER DISTURBANCE BRINGS A THREAT OF SHOWERS ONCE AGAIN
LATE NEXT WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND.

&&

.TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...YOUTUBE...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/TUCSON

DROZD








000
FXUS65 KTWC 242135
AFDTWC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ
235 PM MST SAT JAN 24 2015

.SYNOPSIS...SEASONAL DAYTIME TEMPERATURES AND EASTERLY BREEZES WILL
PREVAIL THIS WEEKEND. INCREASING MOISTURE FROM THE SOUTH WILL BRING
THICKENING CLOUDS AND WIDESPREAD SHOWERS TO SOUTHERN ARIZONA MONDAY
INTO EARLY TUESDAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...HIGH CLOUDS CONTINUE TO THIN AS THEY EDGE NORTHWARD
INTO SE AZ FROM SONORA.  ABUNDANT SUNSHINE...BREEZY EAST WINDS AND
DRY AIR HAS ALLOWED TEMPERATURES TO WARM NICELY THIS AFTERNOON.
UPPER LOW CHURNING WEST OF BAJA CA WILL EVENTUALLY SEND DEEPER
MOISTURE NORTHWARD BUT NOT BEFORE ANOTHER STELLAR AFTERNOON ACROSS
SE AZ WITH SUNDAY TEMPS EVEN A DEGREE OR TWO WARMER THAN TODAY.

FOR SE AZ...EXPECT THE BULK OF THE RAIN ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW
PRESSURE AREA TO OCCUR DURING THE DAYTIME MONDAY INTO MONDAY EVENING
WITH A FEW LINGERING SHOWERS MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. FAIRLY QUICK
MOVING SHOWERS SHOULD LEAD TO MOST AREAS SEEING AT LEAST SOME RAIN
ALTHOUGH AMOUNTS IN ANY GIVEN LOCATION ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BE ALL
THAT HEAVY.  IN GENERAL...A QUARTER TO HALF INCH RAIN AMOUNTS WILL
BE COMMON. WITH SUCH A WARM AIR MASS...SNOW LEVELS WILL BE AROUND
THE HIGHER MOUNTAIN TOPS AND VERY LITTLE SNOW ACCUMULATION IS
ANTICIPATED WITH THIS PARTICULAR ROUND OF PRECIPITATION.

CLOUDS AND RAIN WILL AFFECT TEMPERATURES AS MOST SPOTS STRUGGLE TO
REACH NORMAL HIGHS MONDAY. AS CLOUDS EXIT THE AREA TUESDAY...
TEMPERATURES SHOULD REBOUND TO NORMAL READINGS IN THE AFTERNOON. THE
WARMEST DAYS OF THE WEEK MAY BE WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.

ANOTHER PACIFIC WEATHER SYSTEM WILL BEGIN TO SPREAD CLOUDS INTO SE
AZ THURSDAY WITH A DECENT CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION FRIDAY INTO
SUPERBOWL WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION...VALID THRU 26/00Z.
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE PERIOD. HIGH CLOUDS WILL BE
ON THE INCREASE FROM SOUTH TO NORTH OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. EASTERLY
SURFACE WINDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE PERIOD. SPEEDS OF 10-15 KTS
WITH GUSTS UP TO 25 KTS WILL WEAKEN TO LESS THAN 10 KTS AFTER
SUNDOWN. A SLIGHT INCREASE IN SPEEDS WILL OCCUR AGAIN SUNDAY
MORNING...GENERALLY AT 8-12 KTS WITH GUST TO 20 KTS POSSIBLE.
AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR TAF AMENDMENTS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...GUSTY EAST TO SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL OCCUR FOR MUCH OF
THE AREA OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. SPEEDS WILL BE 10-15 MPH WITH
A FEW HIGHER GUSTS MAINLY DURING THE DAYTIME. DRY CONDITIONS WILL
PERSIST THROUGH TOMORROW. AN INCREASE IN MOISTURE AND A HIGH
POTENTIAL OF SHOWERS WILL OCCUR MONDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY
MORNING. THE BEST CHANCE FOR SHOWERS WILL BE MONDAY INTO MONDAY
EVENING. DRY WEATHER WILL RETURN TUESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH THURSDAY
BEFORE ANOTHER DISTURBANCE BRINGS A THREAT OF SHOWERS ONCE AGAIN
LATE NEXT WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND.

&&

.TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...YOUTUBE...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/TUCSON

DROZD







000
FXUS65 KPSR 242045
AFDPSR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PHOENIX AZ
145 PM MST SAT JAN 24 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
STRONG HIGH PRESSURE WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE WESTERN STATES THIS
WEEKEND...RESULTING IN SUNNY SKIES AND UNUSUALLY WARM WEATHER. A LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA MONDAY...BRINGING AN
INCREASE IN MOISTURE AND LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS. IN ITS WAKE...ABOVE
NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND HIGHER THAN NORMAL HUMIDITIES WILL PREVAIL
THROUGH NEXT WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
THE FORMATIVE STAGES OF A TEMPORARY REX-TYPE BLOCK WERE
MATERIALIZING ACROSS THE WRN CONUS EARLY THIS AFTERNOON WITH THE
CUTOFF SOUTHERN STREAM LOW SLOWLY RETROGRADING WEST OF THE BAJA
PENINSULA. IN THIS EVOLUTION...FLOW ALOFT THROUGH NRN MEXICO WAS
ALREADY BACKING MORE MERIDIONAL STARTING TO PULL THICKER MID/HIGH
LEVEL MOISTURE NORTHWARD TOWARDS SERN ARIZONA. HOWEVER...UPSTREAM
SUBSIDENCE ON THE EASTERN SIDE OF THE RIDGE AXIS HAS BEEN A
SIGNIFICANT LIMITING FACTOR TOWARDS THE EXPANSION OF HIGH CLOUDS.
THIS PATTERN CONFIGURATION (AND TRANQUIL WEATHER) WILL HOLD THROUGH
SUNDAY EVENING UNTIL THE COUNTERPART NORTHERN STREAM RIDGE FOLDS
OVER INTO THE CNTRL ROCKIES...ALLOWING THE AFOREMENTIONED CUTOFF TO
BE PICKED UP AND EJECTED THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA MONDAY AND
TUESDAY.

VERY LITTLE CHANGE IN FORECAST THINKING MONDAY AND TUESDAY AS
OPERATIONAL MODELS REMAIN CONSISTENT AND SUPPORTED STRONGLY BY
ENSEMBLE MEMBERS LIFTING A SHORTWAVE AND A COINCIDENT MOISTURE LADEN
AIRMASS INTO THE FORECAST AREA. DEEP MERIDIONAL FLOW WILL RESULT IN
STRONG TRANSPORT OF ANOMALOUS PWATS NORTHWARD...WITH TOTAL PWAT
VALUES IN A 0.75-1.25 RANGE CORRESPONDING TO 2-3 NORMALIZED STANDARD
DEVIATIONS ABOVE NORMAL. THE INITIAL NOSE OF WELL DEFINED DEEP HIGH
THETA-E AIR WILL BE ENTRAINED NORTHWESTWARD THROUGHOUT A REGION OF
BROAD ISENTROPIC ASCENT AND GENERALIZED DYNAMIC LIFT (WITH A
DISTINCT NEGATIVE U-COMPONENT JET LEVEL TRAJECTORY). MODEL TRENDS
CONTINUE TO SUGGEST THIS PLUME INITIALLY TRANSPORTED MORE
WESTWARD THAN NORTHWARD...AND HIGHER POPS DURING DAYLIGHT HOURS HAVE
BEEN TAILORED TOWARDS WRN ARIZONA PRIOR TO SUNSET.

WHILE DRY AIR AND EASTERLY FLOW IN THE SFC-H7 LAYER MAY INITIALLY
HAMPER PRECIPITATION REACHING THE GROUND OVER CNTRL ARIZONA MONDAY
AFTERNOON...THE SURGE OF HIGHER THETA-E AIR AND INCREASING DYNAMICS
SHOULD EVENTUALLY OVERCOME THIS NEGATING FACTOR MONDAY EVENING.
HOWEVER AS QUICKLY AS THE SYSTEM AND ASSOCIATED LIFT ENTER THE
REGION...THE PASSAGE OF THE TROUGH AXIS AND SUBSEQUENT DOWNGLIDE
SINKING MOTION WILL ENVELOP THE AREA TUESDAY MORNING. RESIDUAL
MOISTURE IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER AND PERSISTENT SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL
AID IN MAINTAINING LOW CLOUD COVER...THOUGH PROCESSES CONDUCIVE FOR
RAINFALL WILL RAPIDLY ABATE. ALL TOLD...STORM TOTAL QPF VALUES STILL
DISPLAY A LARGE RANGE AMONG OPERATIONAL AND ENSEMBLE MEMBERS...AND
HAVE FOLLOWED AN ENSEMBLE MEAN APPROACH SUGGESTING AMOUNTS IN A
0.25-0.50 RANGE THROUGH THE LOWER COLORADO RIVER VALLEY...AND
0.10-0.25 AROUND THE PHOENIX METRO.

HE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL ACCELERATE NORTHWARD TUESDAY AFTERNOON
AS THE RIDGE DRIFTS EASTWARD INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. MORE
WIDESPREAD SUBSIDENCE WILL OVERSPREAD SOUTHERN ARIZONA WITH ONLY A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF RESIDUAL SHOWERS ACROSS THE CENTRAL DESERTS TUESDAY
(AND MORE LIKELY VERY LIMITED TO THE UPSLOPE AREAS NORTH AND EAST OF
PHOENIX). MUCH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND HIGHER THAN NORMAL
HUMIDITIES WILL PREVAIL THROUGH NEXT WEEK AS A RIDGE BECOMES
REESTABLISHED TO OUR SOUTH ACROSS MEXICO AND GENERAL SOUTHERLY FLOW
PERSISTS. ABUNDANT MID AND HIGH CLOUDS WILL ALSO PREVAIL...AND
DEPENDING ON THICKNESS MAY HINDER FULL INSOLATION AND HIGH
TEMPERATURES ON ANY GIVEN DAY. GLOBAL MODELS CONTINUE TO SUGGEST
THAT ANOTHER PACIFIC LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL AFFECT THE REGION LATE
NEXT WEEK...THOUGH RUN-TO-RUN CONSISTENCY IS LACKING. THIS SYSTEM
APPEARS SLOWER THAN ITS PREDECESSOR AND HAS THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE
PRECIPITATION SOMETIME IN THE FRIDAY-SUNDAY TIME FRAME...THOUGH THE
EXACT TIMING IS UNCERTAIN THIS FAR OUT. HAVE COMPLETELY DISCOUNTED
THE ABRUPT CHANGE AND MOST INTENSE 12Z OPERATIONAL GFS SOLUTION WITH
LITTLE TO NO ENSEMBLE SUPPORT AT THIS TIME.

&&

.AVIATION...
SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA INCLUDING KPHX...KIWA AND KSDL...

LITTLE TO NO AVIATION IMPACTS THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON UNDER MOSTLY
CLEAR SKIES. EASTERLY SFC WINDS WILL BE FAVORED FOR THE ENTIRE
PERIOD...WITH ANY PERIODIC GUSTS RELAXING JUST PRIOR TO SUNSET.

FOR PLANNING PURPOSES...RAIN SHOWERS AND LOWERING CIGS SHOULD IMPACT
TERMINAL SITES LATER MONDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING. AT
THIS TIME...IT APPEARS ANY RAIN WOULD BE DELAYED UNTIL AFTER 21Z
MONDAY AND CIGS FALLING BELOW 6K FT WOULD BE FAVORED AFTER 00Z.
CONFIDENCE IS FAIR THAT CIGS WILL BE MAINTAINED IN A 4K-6K FT LAYER
MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING.

SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA AND SOUTHWEST ARIZONA INCLUDING KIPL AND KBLH...

VERY LITTLE AVIATION IMPACTS THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON WITH MOSTLY
CLEAR SKIES. GUSTY NORTH WINDS WILL TAPER OFF AROUND
SUNSET...HOWEVER SPEEDS UP TO 12KT MAY PERSIST INTO THE EVENING
HOURS.

AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDED TAFS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL PERSIST THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD AS
SOUTHERLY FLOW TAKES HOLD ACROSS THE DESERT SOUTHWEST. A LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE NORTHWARD OFF THE COAST OF BAJA AND
CALIFORNIA BRINGING GOOD CHANCES FOR RAIN ON MONDAY INTO EARLY
TUESDAY. FAIRLY MOIST CONDITIONS WILL ONLY LEAD TO MINIMUM
HUMIDITIES EACH AFTERNOON IN THE 25 TO 35 PERCENT RANGE ACROSS THE
LOWER DESERTS. WITH THE EXCEPTION OF SOME OCCASIONAL AFTERNOON
BREEZINESS...WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT THROUGH THE ENTIRE PERIOD.

&&

.PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

AZ...NONE.

CA...NONE.

&&

$$

VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/PHOENIX

DISCUSSION...MO/HIRSCH
AVIATION...MO
FIRE WEATHER...KUHLMAN







000
FXUS65 KFGZ 241651
AFDFGZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ
950 AM MST SAT JAN 24 2015

.SYNOPSIS...EXPECT DRY AND RELATIVELY MILD WEATHER ACROSS NORTHERN
ARIZONA THIS WEEKEND. STARTING MONDAY...A SUB-TROPICAL AIRMASS WILL
MOVE INTO ARIZONA...RESULTING IN PERIODS OF MAINLY RAIN SHOWERS ON
MONDAY AND TUESDAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...NORTHEAST FLOW WILL CONTINUE TODAY AND SUNDAY. THIS
WILL KEEP AREAS ALONG AND NORTHEAST OF THE RIM 5-10 DEGREES COOLER
THAN WHAT WOULD OTHERWISE BE PRODUCED BY THE RIDGE BUILDING TO OUR
NORTHWEST. AREAS SOUTH AND WEST OF THE RIM WILL SEE TEMPERATURES
WELL ABOVE NORMAL. THE GRIDS REFLECT THESE TRENDS AND NO UPDATES
ARE NEEDED THIS MORNING.

A LITTLE FARTHER OUT...A SUB-TROPICAL RAIN EVENT STILL LOOKS LIKELY
FOR LATE MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY. THIS WILL BE A HIGH PROBABILITY
EVENT...WITH LOW TO LOCALLY MODERATE QPF AMOUNTS.

LATER IN THE WEEK...THE 12Z GFS HAS DEVELOPED A DRAMATIC CHANGE FOR
THE SECOND SYSTEM. THE NEW RUN NOW INJECTS A COLD CANADIAN AIRMASS
INTO THE SUB-TROPICAL MOISTURE STREAM...CREATING A LARGE AMOUNT OF
QPF OVER ARIZONA. THIS IS AN OUTLIER SOLUTION RIGHT NOW...BUT WE
WILL KEEP AN EYE ON IT.

&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 18Z PACKAGE...VFR CONDITIONS FOR THE NEXT 24
HOURS UNDER SKC-SCT CIRRUS. SURFACE WINDS N-NE 10-20KT ALONG AND
SOUTHWEST OF THE MOGOLLON RIM/KAIBAB PLATEAU...LIGHT AND VARIABLE
ELSEWHERE. AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR TAF AMENDMENTS.

&&

.FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC.....PETERSON
AVIATION...MAS

FOR NORTHERN ARIZONA WEATHER INFORMATION VISIT
WEATHER.GOV/FLAGSTAFF




000
FXUS65 KFGZ 241651
AFDFGZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ
950 AM MST SAT JAN 24 2015

.SYNOPSIS...EXPECT DRY AND RELATIVELY MILD WEATHER ACROSS NORTHERN
ARIZONA THIS WEEKEND. STARTING MONDAY...A SUB-TROPICAL AIRMASS WILL
MOVE INTO ARIZONA...RESULTING IN PERIODS OF MAINLY RAIN SHOWERS ON
MONDAY AND TUESDAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...NORTHEAST FLOW WILL CONTINUE TODAY AND SUNDAY. THIS
WILL KEEP AREAS ALONG AND NORTHEAST OF THE RIM 5-10 DEGREES COOLER
THAN WHAT WOULD OTHERWISE BE PRODUCED BY THE RIDGE BUILDING TO OUR
NORTHWEST. AREAS SOUTH AND WEST OF THE RIM WILL SEE TEMPERATURES
WELL ABOVE NORMAL. THE GRIDS REFLECT THESE TRENDS AND NO UPDATES
ARE NEEDED THIS MORNING.

A LITTLE FARTHER OUT...A SUB-TROPICAL RAIN EVENT STILL LOOKS LIKELY
FOR LATE MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY. THIS WILL BE A HIGH PROBABILITY
EVENT...WITH LOW TO LOCALLY MODERATE QPF AMOUNTS.

LATER IN THE WEEK...THE 12Z GFS HAS DEVELOPED A DRAMATIC CHANGE FOR
THE SECOND SYSTEM. THE NEW RUN NOW INJECTS A COLD CANADIAN AIRMASS
INTO THE SUB-TROPICAL MOISTURE STREAM...CREATING A LARGE AMOUNT OF
QPF OVER ARIZONA. THIS IS AN OUTLIER SOLUTION RIGHT NOW...BUT WE
WILL KEEP AN EYE ON IT.

&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 18Z PACKAGE...VFR CONDITIONS FOR THE NEXT 24
HOURS UNDER SKC-SCT CIRRUS. SURFACE WINDS N-NE 10-20KT ALONG AND
SOUTHWEST OF THE MOGOLLON RIM/KAIBAB PLATEAU...LIGHT AND VARIABLE
ELSEWHERE. AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR TAF AMENDMENTS.

&&

.FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC.....PETERSON
AVIATION...MAS

FOR NORTHERN ARIZONA WEATHER INFORMATION VISIT
WEATHER.GOV/FLAGSTAFF





000
FXUS65 KTWC 241608
AFDTWC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ
908 AM MST SAT JAN 24 2015

.SYNOPSIS...SEASONAL DAYTIME TEMPERATURES AND EASTERLY BREEZES WILL
PREVAIL THIS WEEKEND. INCREASING MOISTURE FROM THE SOUTH WILL BRING
THICKENING CLOUDS AND WIDESPREAD SHOWERS TO SOUTHERN ARIZONA MONDAY
INTO EARLY TUESDAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...HIGH CLOUDS CONTINUING TO EDGE NORTHWARD INTO SE AZ
BUT SHOWING SOME THINNING ON THE NORTHERN EDGE. LOOKS LIKE MOST OF
THIS MOISTURE IS AT 20-30 KFT WHICH WILL ALLOW FOR A GOOD DEAL OF
SUN TO FILTER THROUGH.  CURRENT FORECAST FOR HIGH TEMPERATURES TODAY
LOOKS GOOD.  WHILE HEATING COULD BE TEMPERED SLIGHTLY FROM WHAT
MIGHT OCCUR UNDER A CLEAR SKY...MIXING FROM EAST WINDS SHOULD
MINIMIZE THAT EFFECT.

UPPER LOW CHURNING WEST OF BAJA CA WILL GATHER MOISTURE AND SPREAD
IT NORTHWARD ACROSS SONORA SUNDAY. WHILE CLOUDS SHOULD THICKEN IN
PARTS OF SRN AZ...TEMPERATURES SHOULD REMAIN MILD AND MAY EVEN BE A
BIT WARMER THAN TODAY. SEE PREVIOUS DISCUSSION BELOW FOR FURTHER
DETAILS ON PRECIPITATION CHANCES DURING THE UPCOMING WORK WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...VALID THRU 25/18Z.
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE WEEKEND ALTHOUGH HIGH CLOUDS
WILL BE ON THE INCREASE INTO SUNDAY. SFC WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE
FROM THE ESE WITH GUSTS OF 20-25 KTS COMMON THRU 25/00Z. WIDESPREAD
SHOWERS ARE FORECAST EARLY NEXT WEEK. AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT
UPDATED FOR TAF AMENDMENTS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...GUSTY EAST TO SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL BE PRESENT FOR
MUCH OF THE AREA OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. WINDS WILL BE
STRONGEST IN AREAS WHERE TERRAIN FOCUSES WINDS FROM AN EASTERLY
DIRECTION. IT WILL REMAIN DRY THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

AN INCREASE IN MOISTURE...ALONG WITH A FAIRLY HIGH POTENTIAL FOR
SHOWERS WILL OCCUR EARLY NEXT WEEK AS LOW PRESSURE OFF THE BAJA
COAST LIFTS NORTH. THE BEST CHANCE FOR SHOWERS WILL OCCUR MONDAY AND
MONDAY NIGHT. DRY WEATHER IS THEN EXPECTED LATE TUESDAY THROUGH
THURSDAY BEFORE ANOTHER PACIFIC SYSTEM BRINGS A THREAT OF SHOWERS
ONCE AGAIN LATE NEXT WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
SUNDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY MONDAY MORNING...SCATTERED LIGHT SHOWERS
WILL BE DEVELOPING S AND W OF TUCSON AS PW VALUES INCREASE UP TO 1".

MONDAY...SHOWERS WILL BE INCREASING AREAWIDE WITH BEST CHANCES BEING
W OF TUCSON. STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY ON QPF VALUES W OF TUCSON WITH
THIS AREA HAVING OF PW VALUES AROUND OR SLIGHTLY HIGHER THAN 1".
CURRENTLY HAVE UP TO 0.20" W OF TUCSON BUT THIS MAY NOT BE HIGH
ENOUGH.

MONDAY NIGHT...WIDESPREAD SHOWERS IN THE EVENING HOURS WITH AREAL
COVERAGE OF SHOWERS DECREASING OVERNIGHT AS DRIER AIR PUSHES IN FROM
THE S AS THE UPPER LOW LIFT N THRU SRN CA.

TUESDAY...SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS...MAINLY ACROSS THE NRN ZONES.

WEDNESDAY...DRY AS UPPER RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE AREA IN ADVANCE OF
NEXT PACIFIC STORM.

THURSDAY...INCREASING CLOUDS AS NEXT PACIFIC STORM APPROACHES SRN
CA/NRN BAJA.

FRIDAY...LOOKS WET AT THIS TIME PER GFS/EC MODELS. MADE SOME SLIGHT
ADJUSTMENT UP TO CLIMO BASED POP GRIDS.

TEMPERATURES FOR MOST OF THE FORECAST PERIOD WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...YOUTUBE...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/TUCSON

DROZD








000
FXUS65 KTWC 241608
AFDTWC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ
908 AM MST SAT JAN 24 2015

.SYNOPSIS...SEASONAL DAYTIME TEMPERATURES AND EASTERLY BREEZES WILL
PREVAIL THIS WEEKEND. INCREASING MOISTURE FROM THE SOUTH WILL BRING
THICKENING CLOUDS AND WIDESPREAD SHOWERS TO SOUTHERN ARIZONA MONDAY
INTO EARLY TUESDAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...HIGH CLOUDS CONTINUING TO EDGE NORTHWARD INTO SE AZ
BUT SHOWING SOME THINNING ON THE NORTHERN EDGE. LOOKS LIKE MOST OF
THIS MOISTURE IS AT 20-30 KFT WHICH WILL ALLOW FOR A GOOD DEAL OF
SUN TO FILTER THROUGH.  CURRENT FORECAST FOR HIGH TEMPERATURES TODAY
LOOKS GOOD.  WHILE HEATING COULD BE TEMPERED SLIGHTLY FROM WHAT
MIGHT OCCUR UNDER A CLEAR SKY...MIXING FROM EAST WINDS SHOULD
MINIMIZE THAT EFFECT.

UPPER LOW CHURNING WEST OF BAJA CA WILL GATHER MOISTURE AND SPREAD
IT NORTHWARD ACROSS SONORA SUNDAY. WHILE CLOUDS SHOULD THICKEN IN
PARTS OF SRN AZ...TEMPERATURES SHOULD REMAIN MILD AND MAY EVEN BE A
BIT WARMER THAN TODAY. SEE PREVIOUS DISCUSSION BELOW FOR FURTHER
DETAILS ON PRECIPITATION CHANCES DURING THE UPCOMING WORK WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...VALID THRU 25/18Z.
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE WEEKEND ALTHOUGH HIGH CLOUDS
WILL BE ON THE INCREASE INTO SUNDAY. SFC WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE
FROM THE ESE WITH GUSTS OF 20-25 KTS COMMON THRU 25/00Z. WIDESPREAD
SHOWERS ARE FORECAST EARLY NEXT WEEK. AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT
UPDATED FOR TAF AMENDMENTS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...GUSTY EAST TO SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL BE PRESENT FOR
MUCH OF THE AREA OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. WINDS WILL BE
STRONGEST IN AREAS WHERE TERRAIN FOCUSES WINDS FROM AN EASTERLY
DIRECTION. IT WILL REMAIN DRY THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

AN INCREASE IN MOISTURE...ALONG WITH A FAIRLY HIGH POTENTIAL FOR
SHOWERS WILL OCCUR EARLY NEXT WEEK AS LOW PRESSURE OFF THE BAJA
COAST LIFTS NORTH. THE BEST CHANCE FOR SHOWERS WILL OCCUR MONDAY AND
MONDAY NIGHT. DRY WEATHER IS THEN EXPECTED LATE TUESDAY THROUGH
THURSDAY BEFORE ANOTHER PACIFIC SYSTEM BRINGS A THREAT OF SHOWERS
ONCE AGAIN LATE NEXT WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
SUNDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY MONDAY MORNING...SCATTERED LIGHT SHOWERS
WILL BE DEVELOPING S AND W OF TUCSON AS PW VALUES INCREASE UP TO 1".

MONDAY...SHOWERS WILL BE INCREASING AREAWIDE WITH BEST CHANCES BEING
W OF TUCSON. STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY ON QPF VALUES W OF TUCSON WITH
THIS AREA HAVING OF PW VALUES AROUND OR SLIGHTLY HIGHER THAN 1".
CURRENTLY HAVE UP TO 0.20" W OF TUCSON BUT THIS MAY NOT BE HIGH
ENOUGH.

MONDAY NIGHT...WIDESPREAD SHOWERS IN THE EVENING HOURS WITH AREAL
COVERAGE OF SHOWERS DECREASING OVERNIGHT AS DRIER AIR PUSHES IN FROM
THE S AS THE UPPER LOW LIFT N THRU SRN CA.

TUESDAY...SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS...MAINLY ACROSS THE NRN ZONES.

WEDNESDAY...DRY AS UPPER RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE AREA IN ADVANCE OF
NEXT PACIFIC STORM.

THURSDAY...INCREASING CLOUDS AS NEXT PACIFIC STORM APPROACHES SRN
CA/NRN BAJA.

FRIDAY...LOOKS WET AT THIS TIME PER GFS/EC MODELS. MADE SOME SLIGHT
ADJUSTMENT UP TO CLIMO BASED POP GRIDS.

TEMPERATURES FOR MOST OF THE FORECAST PERIOD WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...YOUTUBE...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/TUCSON

DROZD







000
FXUS65 KPSR 241531
AFDPSR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PHOENIX AZ
830 AM MST SAT JAN 24 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
STRONG HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE WESTERN STATES THIS
WEEKEND...RESULTING IN SUNNY SKIES ALONG WITH A WARMING TREND. A LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL AFFECT THE AREA MONDAY...BRINGING AN INCREASE
IN MOISTURE AND LIGHT PRECIPITATION. IN ITS WAKE...ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES AND HIGHER THAN NORMAL HUMIDITIES WILL PREVAIL THROUGH
THE WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
THE FORMATIVE STAGES OF A REX-TYPE BLOCK WERE MATERIALIZING ACROSS
THE WRN CONUS THIS MORNING WITH THE CUTOFF SOUTHERN STREAM LOW
SLOWLY RETROGRADING WEST OF THE BAJA PENINSULA. IN THIS
PROGRESSION...FLOW ALOFT WAS ALREADY BACKING MORE MERIDIONAL
STARTING TO PULL THICKER MID/HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE NORTHWARD TOWARDS
SERN ARIZONA. HOWEVER...WITH THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM CONTINUING TO
RETROGRADE OVER THE NEXT 24-36 HOUR...ADDITIONAL NORTHWARD
ADVANCEMENT OF THE CLOUD SHIELD WILL BE LIMITED. OTHERWISE...A
STEEPER PRESSURE GRADIENT WAS MAINTAINING STRONGER NELY WINDS ACROSS
CNTRL ARIZONA WHICH HAS KEPT SFC DEWPOINTS DEPRESSED WHILE ELEVATING
MORNING TEMPERATURES AT EXPOSED LOCATIONS. ADDRESSED THESE SHORT
TERM LOCAL EFFECTS IN THIS MORNINGS UPDATE...THOUGH WONDERFUL
WEATHER CONDITIONS THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY REMAIN ON TRACK.

&&

.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
/420 AM MST SAT JAN 24 2015/
LARGE ANTICYCLONE IN THE EASTERN PACIFIC CONTINUES TO BUILD EASTWARD
INTO THE WESTERN CONUS. ALONG THE FRONT SIDE OF THE RIDGE...LATEST
RAP ANALYSIS INDICATES THAT A CLOSED MID-LEVEL LOW HAS FORMED ALONG
THE BAJA PENINSULA. FOR THIS WEEKEND...A STRONG SURFACE HIGH ACROSS
THE WEST WILL PREDOMINATE...RESULTING IN MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND A
PERSISTENT EASTERLY FLOW. THE DOWNSLOPE WINDS WILL PROMOTE
COMPRESSIONAL WARMING IN THE LOWER DESERTS WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES IN
THE MID TO UPPER 70S EACH DAY. HOWEVER...FORECAST MAX OF 78 DEGREES
IN PHOENIX FOR SUNDAY WOULD STILL FALL SEVERAL DEGREES SHORT OF THE
RECORD OF 83 DEGREES SET IN 1951.

MODELS CONTINUE TO CONVERGE ON A WETTER SOLUTION FOR MONDAY AS THE
AFOREMENTIONED LOW LATCHES ONTO TROPICAL MOISTURE AND LIFTS
NORTHWARD TOWARDS THE DESERT SOUTHWEST. PWATS NEAR 0.75 INCHES YIELD
STANDARDIZED ANOMALIES OF +2 TO +3 THOUGH DEPICTIONS OF QG-BASED
FORCING REMAIN WEAK. OPERATIONAL GFS ALSO INDICATES THAT MOISTURE
TRANSPORT WILL BE WEAKENING RAPIDLY MONDAY AFTERNOON. LIFT IS
EXPECTED TO BE IN THE FORM OF ISENTROPIC ASCENT...RESULTING IN
PERIODS OF LIGHT RAIN MAINLY MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT. FORECAST POPS
GENERALLY LIE ON THE HIGH END OF THE STATISTICAL GUIDANCE ENVELOPE
AND TOP OUT AROUND 70-80 PERCENT ACROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL AZ.
AREA-AVERAGED QPF IS GENERALLY AROUND ONE TO TWO TENTHS OF AN INCH
OF RAIN. WITH THE CLOUDS AND PRECIPITATION...COOLER TEMPERATURES ARE
ALSO ANTICIPATED.

THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL ACCELERATE NORTHWARD TUESDAY AS THE
RIDGE DRIFTS EASTWARD INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. SUBSIDENCE WILL
OVERSPREAD SOUTHERN ARIZONA WITH ONLY A SLIGHT CHANCE OF RESIDUAL
SHOWERS ACROSS THE CENTRAL DESERTS TUESDAY. WELL-ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES AND HIGHER THAN NORMAL HUMIDITIES WILL PREVAIL THROUGH
NEXT WEEK AS A RIDGE BECOMES REESTABLISHED TO OUR SOUTH ACROSS
MEXICO. ABUNDANT MID AND HIGH CLOUDS ARE ALSO EXPECTED THROUGH THE
WEEK. GLOBAL MODELS CONTINUE TO SUGGEST THAT ANOTHER PACIFIC LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL AFFECT THE REGION LATE NEXT WEEK. THIS SYSTEM
APPEARS SLOWER THAN ITS PREDECESSOR AND HAS THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE
PRECIPITATION IN THE FRIDAY-SUNDAY TIME FRAME...THOUGH THE EXACT
TIMING IS UNCERTAIN THIS FAR OUT.

&&

.AVIATION...
SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA INCLUDING KPHX...KIWA AND KSDL...

BKN CIRRUS DECKS WILL PERSIST THROUGH AROUND MID MORNING BEFORE
CLEARING. A TIGHTENING N-S SURFACE GRADIENT WILL LEAD TO SOMEWHAT
ELEVATED EAST TO NORTHEAST WINDS BY MID MORNING TODAY...WITH A FEW
GUSTS TO AROUND 20 MPH POSSIBLE BY 18Z AT THE TERMINALS. WINDS
SHOULD FAVOR THE EAST THE ENTIRE DAY.

SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA AND SOUTHWEST ARIZONA INCLUDING KIPL AND KBLH...

A TIGHTENING N-S SURFACE GRADIENT WILL LEAD TO ENHANCED NORTH WINDS
DOWN THE LOWER CO RIVER VALLEY LATE THIS MORNING THROUGH EARLY
EVENING TODAY. EXPECT WINDS TO BECOME A BIT GUSTY AT KBLH BY 18Z
SAT...WITH A FEW GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 22KT AT TIMES THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON. LESS WIND AT KIPL...BUT FAVORING NORTH BY LATE MORNING.

AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDED TAFS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL PERSIST THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD AS
SOUTHERLY FLOW TAKES HOLD ACROSS THE DESERT SOUTHWEST. A LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE NORTHWARD OFF THE COAST OF BAJA AND
CALIFORNIA BRINGING GOOD CHANCES FOR RAIN ON MONDAY INTO EARLY
TUESDAY. FAIRLY MOIST CONDITIONS WILL ONLY LEAD TO MINIMUM
HUMIDITIES EACH AFTERNOON IN THE 25 TO 35 PERCENT RANGE ACROSS THE
LOWER DESERTS. WITH THE EXCEPTION OF SOME OCCASIONAL AFTERNOON
BREEZINESS...WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT THROUGH THE ENTIRE PERIOD.

&&

.PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

AZ...NONE.

CA...NONE.

&&

$$

VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/PHOENIX

DISCUSSION...MO/HIRSCH
AVIATION...KUHLMAN
FIRE WEATHER...KUHLMAN







000
FXUS65 KPSR 241531
AFDPSR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PHOENIX AZ
830 AM MST SAT JAN 24 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
STRONG HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE WESTERN STATES THIS
WEEKEND...RESULTING IN SUNNY SKIES ALONG WITH A WARMING TREND. A LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL AFFECT THE AREA MONDAY...BRINGING AN INCREASE
IN MOISTURE AND LIGHT PRECIPITATION. IN ITS WAKE...ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES AND HIGHER THAN NORMAL HUMIDITIES WILL PREVAIL THROUGH
THE WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
THE FORMATIVE STAGES OF A REX-TYPE BLOCK WERE MATERIALIZING ACROSS
THE WRN CONUS THIS MORNING WITH THE CUTOFF SOUTHERN STREAM LOW
SLOWLY RETROGRADING WEST OF THE BAJA PENINSULA. IN THIS
PROGRESSION...FLOW ALOFT WAS ALREADY BACKING MORE MERIDIONAL
STARTING TO PULL THICKER MID/HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE NORTHWARD TOWARDS
SERN ARIZONA. HOWEVER...WITH THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM CONTINUING TO
RETROGRADE OVER THE NEXT 24-36 HOUR...ADDITIONAL NORTHWARD
ADVANCEMENT OF THE CLOUD SHIELD WILL BE LIMITED. OTHERWISE...A
STEEPER PRESSURE GRADIENT WAS MAINTAINING STRONGER NELY WINDS ACROSS
CNTRL ARIZONA WHICH HAS KEPT SFC DEWPOINTS DEPRESSED WHILE ELEVATING
MORNING TEMPERATURES AT EXPOSED LOCATIONS. ADDRESSED THESE SHORT
TERM LOCAL EFFECTS IN THIS MORNINGS UPDATE...THOUGH WONDERFUL
WEATHER CONDITIONS THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY REMAIN ON TRACK.

&&

.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
/420 AM MST SAT JAN 24 2015/
LARGE ANTICYCLONE IN THE EASTERN PACIFIC CONTINUES TO BUILD EASTWARD
INTO THE WESTERN CONUS. ALONG THE FRONT SIDE OF THE RIDGE...LATEST
RAP ANALYSIS INDICATES THAT A CLOSED MID-LEVEL LOW HAS FORMED ALONG
THE BAJA PENINSULA. FOR THIS WEEKEND...A STRONG SURFACE HIGH ACROSS
THE WEST WILL PREDOMINATE...RESULTING IN MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND A
PERSISTENT EASTERLY FLOW. THE DOWNSLOPE WINDS WILL PROMOTE
COMPRESSIONAL WARMING IN THE LOWER DESERTS WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES IN
THE MID TO UPPER 70S EACH DAY. HOWEVER...FORECAST MAX OF 78 DEGREES
IN PHOENIX FOR SUNDAY WOULD STILL FALL SEVERAL DEGREES SHORT OF THE
RECORD OF 83 DEGREES SET IN 1951.

MODELS CONTINUE TO CONVERGE ON A WETTER SOLUTION FOR MONDAY AS THE
AFOREMENTIONED LOW LATCHES ONTO TROPICAL MOISTURE AND LIFTS
NORTHWARD TOWARDS THE DESERT SOUTHWEST. PWATS NEAR 0.75 INCHES YIELD
STANDARDIZED ANOMALIES OF +2 TO +3 THOUGH DEPICTIONS OF QG-BASED
FORCING REMAIN WEAK. OPERATIONAL GFS ALSO INDICATES THAT MOISTURE
TRANSPORT WILL BE WEAKENING RAPIDLY MONDAY AFTERNOON. LIFT IS
EXPECTED TO BE IN THE FORM OF ISENTROPIC ASCENT...RESULTING IN
PERIODS OF LIGHT RAIN MAINLY MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT. FORECAST POPS
GENERALLY LIE ON THE HIGH END OF THE STATISTICAL GUIDANCE ENVELOPE
AND TOP OUT AROUND 70-80 PERCENT ACROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL AZ.
AREA-AVERAGED QPF IS GENERALLY AROUND ONE TO TWO TENTHS OF AN INCH
OF RAIN. WITH THE CLOUDS AND PRECIPITATION...COOLER TEMPERATURES ARE
ALSO ANTICIPATED.

THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL ACCELERATE NORTHWARD TUESDAY AS THE
RIDGE DRIFTS EASTWARD INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. SUBSIDENCE WILL
OVERSPREAD SOUTHERN ARIZONA WITH ONLY A SLIGHT CHANCE OF RESIDUAL
SHOWERS ACROSS THE CENTRAL DESERTS TUESDAY. WELL-ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES AND HIGHER THAN NORMAL HUMIDITIES WILL PREVAIL THROUGH
NEXT WEEK AS A RIDGE BECOMES REESTABLISHED TO OUR SOUTH ACROSS
MEXICO. ABUNDANT MID AND HIGH CLOUDS ARE ALSO EXPECTED THROUGH THE
WEEK. GLOBAL MODELS CONTINUE TO SUGGEST THAT ANOTHER PACIFIC LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL AFFECT THE REGION LATE NEXT WEEK. THIS SYSTEM
APPEARS SLOWER THAN ITS PREDECESSOR AND HAS THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE
PRECIPITATION IN THE FRIDAY-SUNDAY TIME FRAME...THOUGH THE EXACT
TIMING IS UNCERTAIN THIS FAR OUT.

&&

.AVIATION...
SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA INCLUDING KPHX...KIWA AND KSDL...

BKN CIRRUS DECKS WILL PERSIST THROUGH AROUND MID MORNING BEFORE
CLEARING. A TIGHTENING N-S SURFACE GRADIENT WILL LEAD TO SOMEWHAT
ELEVATED EAST TO NORTHEAST WINDS BY MID MORNING TODAY...WITH A FEW
GUSTS TO AROUND 20 MPH POSSIBLE BY 18Z AT THE TERMINALS. WINDS
SHOULD FAVOR THE EAST THE ENTIRE DAY.

SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA AND SOUTHWEST ARIZONA INCLUDING KIPL AND KBLH...

A TIGHTENING N-S SURFACE GRADIENT WILL LEAD TO ENHANCED NORTH WINDS
DOWN THE LOWER CO RIVER VALLEY LATE THIS MORNING THROUGH EARLY
EVENING TODAY. EXPECT WINDS TO BECOME A BIT GUSTY AT KBLH BY 18Z
SAT...WITH A FEW GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 22KT AT TIMES THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON. LESS WIND AT KIPL...BUT FAVORING NORTH BY LATE MORNING.

AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDED TAFS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL PERSIST THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD AS
SOUTHERLY FLOW TAKES HOLD ACROSS THE DESERT SOUTHWEST. A LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE NORTHWARD OFF THE COAST OF BAJA AND
CALIFORNIA BRINGING GOOD CHANCES FOR RAIN ON MONDAY INTO EARLY
TUESDAY. FAIRLY MOIST CONDITIONS WILL ONLY LEAD TO MINIMUM
HUMIDITIES EACH AFTERNOON IN THE 25 TO 35 PERCENT RANGE ACROSS THE
LOWER DESERTS. WITH THE EXCEPTION OF SOME OCCASIONAL AFTERNOON
BREEZINESS...WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT THROUGH THE ENTIRE PERIOD.

&&

.PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

AZ...NONE.

CA...NONE.

&&

$$

VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/PHOENIX

DISCUSSION...MO/HIRSCH
AVIATION...KUHLMAN
FIRE WEATHER...KUHLMAN







000
FXUS65 KPSR 241531
AFDPSR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PHOENIX AZ
830 AM MST SAT JAN 24 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
STRONG HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE WESTERN STATES THIS
WEEKEND...RESULTING IN SUNNY SKIES ALONG WITH A WARMING TREND. A LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL AFFECT THE AREA MONDAY...BRINGING AN INCREASE
IN MOISTURE AND LIGHT PRECIPITATION. IN ITS WAKE...ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES AND HIGHER THAN NORMAL HUMIDITIES WILL PREVAIL THROUGH
THE WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
THE FORMATIVE STAGES OF A REX-TYPE BLOCK WERE MATERIALIZING ACROSS
THE WRN CONUS THIS MORNING WITH THE CUTOFF SOUTHERN STREAM LOW
SLOWLY RETROGRADING WEST OF THE BAJA PENINSULA. IN THIS
PROGRESSION...FLOW ALOFT WAS ALREADY BACKING MORE MERIDIONAL
STARTING TO PULL THICKER MID/HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE NORTHWARD TOWARDS
SERN ARIZONA. HOWEVER...WITH THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM CONTINUING TO
RETROGRADE OVER THE NEXT 24-36 HOUR...ADDITIONAL NORTHWARD
ADVANCEMENT OF THE CLOUD SHIELD WILL BE LIMITED. OTHERWISE...A
STEEPER PRESSURE GRADIENT WAS MAINTAINING STRONGER NELY WINDS ACROSS
CNTRL ARIZONA WHICH HAS KEPT SFC DEWPOINTS DEPRESSED WHILE ELEVATING
MORNING TEMPERATURES AT EXPOSED LOCATIONS. ADDRESSED THESE SHORT
TERM LOCAL EFFECTS IN THIS MORNINGS UPDATE...THOUGH WONDERFUL
WEATHER CONDITIONS THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY REMAIN ON TRACK.

&&

.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
/420 AM MST SAT JAN 24 2015/
LARGE ANTICYCLONE IN THE EASTERN PACIFIC CONTINUES TO BUILD EASTWARD
INTO THE WESTERN CONUS. ALONG THE FRONT SIDE OF THE RIDGE...LATEST
RAP ANALYSIS INDICATES THAT A CLOSED MID-LEVEL LOW HAS FORMED ALONG
THE BAJA PENINSULA. FOR THIS WEEKEND...A STRONG SURFACE HIGH ACROSS
THE WEST WILL PREDOMINATE...RESULTING IN MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND A
PERSISTENT EASTERLY FLOW. THE DOWNSLOPE WINDS WILL PROMOTE
COMPRESSIONAL WARMING IN THE LOWER DESERTS WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES IN
THE MID TO UPPER 70S EACH DAY. HOWEVER...FORECAST MAX OF 78 DEGREES
IN PHOENIX FOR SUNDAY WOULD STILL FALL SEVERAL DEGREES SHORT OF THE
RECORD OF 83 DEGREES SET IN 1951.

MODELS CONTINUE TO CONVERGE ON A WETTER SOLUTION FOR MONDAY AS THE
AFOREMENTIONED LOW LATCHES ONTO TROPICAL MOISTURE AND LIFTS
NORTHWARD TOWARDS THE DESERT SOUTHWEST. PWATS NEAR 0.75 INCHES YIELD
STANDARDIZED ANOMALIES OF +2 TO +3 THOUGH DEPICTIONS OF QG-BASED
FORCING REMAIN WEAK. OPERATIONAL GFS ALSO INDICATES THAT MOISTURE
TRANSPORT WILL BE WEAKENING RAPIDLY MONDAY AFTERNOON. LIFT IS
EXPECTED TO BE IN THE FORM OF ISENTROPIC ASCENT...RESULTING IN
PERIODS OF LIGHT RAIN MAINLY MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT. FORECAST POPS
GENERALLY LIE ON THE HIGH END OF THE STATISTICAL GUIDANCE ENVELOPE
AND TOP OUT AROUND 70-80 PERCENT ACROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL AZ.
AREA-AVERAGED QPF IS GENERALLY AROUND ONE TO TWO TENTHS OF AN INCH
OF RAIN. WITH THE CLOUDS AND PRECIPITATION...COOLER TEMPERATURES ARE
ALSO ANTICIPATED.

THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL ACCELERATE NORTHWARD TUESDAY AS THE
RIDGE DRIFTS EASTWARD INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. SUBSIDENCE WILL
OVERSPREAD SOUTHERN ARIZONA WITH ONLY A SLIGHT CHANCE OF RESIDUAL
SHOWERS ACROSS THE CENTRAL DESERTS TUESDAY. WELL-ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES AND HIGHER THAN NORMAL HUMIDITIES WILL PREVAIL THROUGH
NEXT WEEK AS A RIDGE BECOMES REESTABLISHED TO OUR SOUTH ACROSS
MEXICO. ABUNDANT MID AND HIGH CLOUDS ARE ALSO EXPECTED THROUGH THE
WEEK. GLOBAL MODELS CONTINUE TO SUGGEST THAT ANOTHER PACIFIC LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL AFFECT THE REGION LATE NEXT WEEK. THIS SYSTEM
APPEARS SLOWER THAN ITS PREDECESSOR AND HAS THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE
PRECIPITATION IN THE FRIDAY-SUNDAY TIME FRAME...THOUGH THE EXACT
TIMING IS UNCERTAIN THIS FAR OUT.

&&

.AVIATION...
SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA INCLUDING KPHX...KIWA AND KSDL...

BKN CIRRUS DECKS WILL PERSIST THROUGH AROUND MID MORNING BEFORE
CLEARING. A TIGHTENING N-S SURFACE GRADIENT WILL LEAD TO SOMEWHAT
ELEVATED EAST TO NORTHEAST WINDS BY MID MORNING TODAY...WITH A FEW
GUSTS TO AROUND 20 MPH POSSIBLE BY 18Z AT THE TERMINALS. WINDS
SHOULD FAVOR THE EAST THE ENTIRE DAY.

SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA AND SOUTHWEST ARIZONA INCLUDING KIPL AND KBLH...

A TIGHTENING N-S SURFACE GRADIENT WILL LEAD TO ENHANCED NORTH WINDS
DOWN THE LOWER CO RIVER VALLEY LATE THIS MORNING THROUGH EARLY
EVENING TODAY. EXPECT WINDS TO BECOME A BIT GUSTY AT KBLH BY 18Z
SAT...WITH A FEW GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 22KT AT TIMES THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON. LESS WIND AT KIPL...BUT FAVORING NORTH BY LATE MORNING.

AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDED TAFS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL PERSIST THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD AS
SOUTHERLY FLOW TAKES HOLD ACROSS THE DESERT SOUTHWEST. A LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE NORTHWARD OFF THE COAST OF BAJA AND
CALIFORNIA BRINGING GOOD CHANCES FOR RAIN ON MONDAY INTO EARLY
TUESDAY. FAIRLY MOIST CONDITIONS WILL ONLY LEAD TO MINIMUM
HUMIDITIES EACH AFTERNOON IN THE 25 TO 35 PERCENT RANGE ACROSS THE
LOWER DESERTS. WITH THE EXCEPTION OF SOME OCCASIONAL AFTERNOON
BREEZINESS...WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT THROUGH THE ENTIRE PERIOD.

&&

.PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

AZ...NONE.

CA...NONE.

&&

$$

VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/PHOENIX

DISCUSSION...MO/HIRSCH
AVIATION...KUHLMAN
FIRE WEATHER...KUHLMAN







000
FXUS65 KPSR 241531
AFDPSR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PHOENIX AZ
830 AM MST SAT JAN 24 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
STRONG HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE WESTERN STATES THIS
WEEKEND...RESULTING IN SUNNY SKIES ALONG WITH A WARMING TREND. A LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL AFFECT THE AREA MONDAY...BRINGING AN INCREASE
IN MOISTURE AND LIGHT PRECIPITATION. IN ITS WAKE...ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES AND HIGHER THAN NORMAL HUMIDITIES WILL PREVAIL THROUGH
THE WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
THE FORMATIVE STAGES OF A REX-TYPE BLOCK WERE MATERIALIZING ACROSS
THE WRN CONUS THIS MORNING WITH THE CUTOFF SOUTHERN STREAM LOW
SLOWLY RETROGRADING WEST OF THE BAJA PENINSULA. IN THIS
PROGRESSION...FLOW ALOFT WAS ALREADY BACKING MORE MERIDIONAL
STARTING TO PULL THICKER MID/HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE NORTHWARD TOWARDS
SERN ARIZONA. HOWEVER...WITH THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM CONTINUING TO
RETROGRADE OVER THE NEXT 24-36 HOUR...ADDITIONAL NORTHWARD
ADVANCEMENT OF THE CLOUD SHIELD WILL BE LIMITED. OTHERWISE...A
STEEPER PRESSURE GRADIENT WAS MAINTAINING STRONGER NELY WINDS ACROSS
CNTRL ARIZONA WHICH HAS KEPT SFC DEWPOINTS DEPRESSED WHILE ELEVATING
MORNING TEMPERATURES AT EXPOSED LOCATIONS. ADDRESSED THESE SHORT
TERM LOCAL EFFECTS IN THIS MORNINGS UPDATE...THOUGH WONDERFUL
WEATHER CONDITIONS THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY REMAIN ON TRACK.

&&

.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
/420 AM MST SAT JAN 24 2015/
LARGE ANTICYCLONE IN THE EASTERN PACIFIC CONTINUES TO BUILD EASTWARD
INTO THE WESTERN CONUS. ALONG THE FRONT SIDE OF THE RIDGE...LATEST
RAP ANALYSIS INDICATES THAT A CLOSED MID-LEVEL LOW HAS FORMED ALONG
THE BAJA PENINSULA. FOR THIS WEEKEND...A STRONG SURFACE HIGH ACROSS
THE WEST WILL PREDOMINATE...RESULTING IN MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND A
PERSISTENT EASTERLY FLOW. THE DOWNSLOPE WINDS WILL PROMOTE
COMPRESSIONAL WARMING IN THE LOWER DESERTS WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES IN
THE MID TO UPPER 70S EACH DAY. HOWEVER...FORECAST MAX OF 78 DEGREES
IN PHOENIX FOR SUNDAY WOULD STILL FALL SEVERAL DEGREES SHORT OF THE
RECORD OF 83 DEGREES SET IN 1951.

MODELS CONTINUE TO CONVERGE ON A WETTER SOLUTION FOR MONDAY AS THE
AFOREMENTIONED LOW LATCHES ONTO TROPICAL MOISTURE AND LIFTS
NORTHWARD TOWARDS THE DESERT SOUTHWEST. PWATS NEAR 0.75 INCHES YIELD
STANDARDIZED ANOMALIES OF +2 TO +3 THOUGH DEPICTIONS OF QG-BASED
FORCING REMAIN WEAK. OPERATIONAL GFS ALSO INDICATES THAT MOISTURE
TRANSPORT WILL BE WEAKENING RAPIDLY MONDAY AFTERNOON. LIFT IS
EXPECTED TO BE IN THE FORM OF ISENTROPIC ASCENT...RESULTING IN
PERIODS OF LIGHT RAIN MAINLY MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT. FORECAST POPS
GENERALLY LIE ON THE HIGH END OF THE STATISTICAL GUIDANCE ENVELOPE
AND TOP OUT AROUND 70-80 PERCENT ACROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL AZ.
AREA-AVERAGED QPF IS GENERALLY AROUND ONE TO TWO TENTHS OF AN INCH
OF RAIN. WITH THE CLOUDS AND PRECIPITATION...COOLER TEMPERATURES ARE
ALSO ANTICIPATED.

THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL ACCELERATE NORTHWARD TUESDAY AS THE
RIDGE DRIFTS EASTWARD INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. SUBSIDENCE WILL
OVERSPREAD SOUTHERN ARIZONA WITH ONLY A SLIGHT CHANCE OF RESIDUAL
SHOWERS ACROSS THE CENTRAL DESERTS TUESDAY. WELL-ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES AND HIGHER THAN NORMAL HUMIDITIES WILL PREVAIL THROUGH
NEXT WEEK AS A RIDGE BECOMES REESTABLISHED TO OUR SOUTH ACROSS
MEXICO. ABUNDANT MID AND HIGH CLOUDS ARE ALSO EXPECTED THROUGH THE
WEEK. GLOBAL MODELS CONTINUE TO SUGGEST THAT ANOTHER PACIFIC LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL AFFECT THE REGION LATE NEXT WEEK. THIS SYSTEM
APPEARS SLOWER THAN ITS PREDECESSOR AND HAS THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE
PRECIPITATION IN THE FRIDAY-SUNDAY TIME FRAME...THOUGH THE EXACT
TIMING IS UNCERTAIN THIS FAR OUT.

&&

.AVIATION...
SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA INCLUDING KPHX...KIWA AND KSDL...

BKN CIRRUS DECKS WILL PERSIST THROUGH AROUND MID MORNING BEFORE
CLEARING. A TIGHTENING N-S SURFACE GRADIENT WILL LEAD TO SOMEWHAT
ELEVATED EAST TO NORTHEAST WINDS BY MID MORNING TODAY...WITH A FEW
GUSTS TO AROUND 20 MPH POSSIBLE BY 18Z AT THE TERMINALS. WINDS
SHOULD FAVOR THE EAST THE ENTIRE DAY.

SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA AND SOUTHWEST ARIZONA INCLUDING KIPL AND KBLH...

A TIGHTENING N-S SURFACE GRADIENT WILL LEAD TO ENHANCED NORTH WINDS
DOWN THE LOWER CO RIVER VALLEY LATE THIS MORNING THROUGH EARLY
EVENING TODAY. EXPECT WINDS TO BECOME A BIT GUSTY AT KBLH BY 18Z
SAT...WITH A FEW GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 22KT AT TIMES THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON. LESS WIND AT KIPL...BUT FAVORING NORTH BY LATE MORNING.

AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDED TAFS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL PERSIST THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD AS
SOUTHERLY FLOW TAKES HOLD ACROSS THE DESERT SOUTHWEST. A LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE NORTHWARD OFF THE COAST OF BAJA AND
CALIFORNIA BRINGING GOOD CHANCES FOR RAIN ON MONDAY INTO EARLY
TUESDAY. FAIRLY MOIST CONDITIONS WILL ONLY LEAD TO MINIMUM
HUMIDITIES EACH AFTERNOON IN THE 25 TO 35 PERCENT RANGE ACROSS THE
LOWER DESERTS. WITH THE EXCEPTION OF SOME OCCASIONAL AFTERNOON
BREEZINESS...WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT THROUGH THE ENTIRE PERIOD.

&&

.PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

AZ...NONE.

CA...NONE.

&&

$$

VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/PHOENIX

DISCUSSION...MO/HIRSCH
AVIATION...KUHLMAN
FIRE WEATHER...KUHLMAN







000
FXUS65 KPSR 241120
AFDPSR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PHOENIX AZ
420 AM MST SAT JAN 24 2015

.UPDATE...UPDATED AVIATION AND FIRE WEATHER DISCUSSIONS...

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
STRONG HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE WESTERN STATES THIS
WEEKEND...RESULTING IN SUNNY SKIES ALONG WITH A WARMING TREND. A LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL AFFECT THE AREA MONDAY...BRINGING AN INCREASE
IN MOISTURE AND LIGHT PRECIPITATION. IN ITS WAKE...ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES AND HIGHER THAN NORMAL HUMIDITIES WILL PREVAIL THROUGH
THE WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
LARGE ANTICYCLONE IN THE EASTERN PACIFIC CONTINUES TO BUILD EASTWARD
INTO THE WESTERN CONUS. ALONG THE FRONT SIDE OF THE RIDGE...LATEST
RAP ANALYSIS INDICATES THAT A CLOSED MID-LEVEL LOW HAS FORMED ALONG
THE BAJA PENINSULA. FOR THIS WEEKEND...A STRONG SURFACE HIGH ACROSS
THE WEST WILL PREDOMINATE...RESULTING IN MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND A
PERSISTENT EASTERLY FLOW. THE DOWNSLOPE WINDS WILL PROMOTE
COMPRESSIONAL WARMING IN THE LOWER DESERTS WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES IN
THE MID TO UPPER 70S EACH DAY. HOWEVER...FORECAST MAX OF 78 DEGREES
IN PHOENIX FOR SUNDAY WOULD STILL FALL SEVERAL DEGREES SHORT OF THE
RECORD OF 83 DEGREES SET IN 1951.

MODELS CONTINUE TO CONVERGE ON A WETTER SOLUTION FOR MONDAY AS THE
AFOREMENTIONED LOW LATCHES ONTO TROPICAL MOISTURE AND LIFTS
NORTHWARD TOWARDS THE DESERT SOUTHWEST. PWATS NEAR 0.75 INCHES YIELD
STANDARDIZED ANOMALIES OF +2 TO +3 THOUGH DEPICTIONS OF QG-BASED
FORCING REMAIN WEAK. OPERATIONAL GFS ALSO INDICATES THAT MOISTURE
TRANSPORT WILL BE WEAKENING RAPIDLY MONDAY AFTERNOON. LIFT IS
EXPECTED TO BE IN THE FORM OF ISENTROPIC ASCENT...RESULTING IN
PERIODS OF LIGHT RAIN MAINLY MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT. FORECAST POPS
GENERALLY LIE ON THE HIGH END OF THE STATISTICAL GUIDANCE ENVELOPE
AND TOP OUT AROUND 70-80 PERCENT ACROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL AZ.
AREA-AVERAGED QPF IS GENERALLY AROUND ONE TO TWO TENTHS OF AN INCH
OF RAIN. WITH THE CLOUDS AND PRECIPITATION...COOLER TEMPERATURES ARE
ALSO ANTICIPATED.

THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL ACCELERATE NORTHWARD TUESDAY AS THE
RIDGE DRIFTS EASTWARD INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. SUBSIDENCE WILL
OVERSPREAD SOUTHERN ARIZONA WITH ONLY A SLIGHT CHANCE OF RESIDUAL
SHOWERS ACROSS THE CENTRAL DESERTS TUESDAY. WELL-ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES AND HIGHER THAN NORMAL HUMIDITIES WILL PREVAIL THROUGH
NEXT WEEK AS A RIDGE BECOMES REESTABLISHED TO OUR SOUTH ACROSS
MEXICO. ABUNDANT MID AND HIGH CLOUDS ARE ALSO EXPECTED THROUGH THE
WEEK. GLOBAL MODELS CONTINUE TO SUGGEST THAT ANOTHER PACIFIC LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL AFFECT THE REGION LATE NEXT WEEK. THIS SYSTEM
APPEARS SLOWER THAN ITS PREDECESSOR AND HAS THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE
PRECIPITATION IN THE FRIDAY-SUNDAY TIME FRAME...THOUGH THE EXACT
TIMING IS UNCERTAIN THIS FAR OUT.

&&

.AVIATION...
SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA INCLUDING KPHX...KIWA AND KSDL...

BKN CIRRUS DECKS WILL PERSIST THROUGH AROUND MID MORNING BEFORE
CLEARING. A TIGHTENING N-S SURFACE GRADIENT WILL LEAD TO SOMEWHAT
ELEVATED EAST TO NORTHEAST WINDS BY MID MORNING TODAY...WITH A FEW
GUSTS TO AROUND 20 MPH POSSIBLE BY 18Z AT THE TERMINALS. WINDS
SHOULD FAVOR THE EAST THE ENTIRE DAY.

SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA AND SOUTHWEST ARIZONA INCLUDING KIPL AND KBLH...

A TIGHTENING N-S SURFACE GRADIENT WILL LEAD TO ENHANCED NORTH WINDS
DOWN THE LOWER CO RIVER VALLEY LATE THIS MORNING THROUGH EARLY
EVENING TODAY. EXPECT WINDS TO BECOME A BIT GUSTY AT KBLH BY 18Z
SAT...WITH A FEW GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 22KT AT TIMES THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON. LESS WIND AT KIPL...BUT FAVORING NORTH BY LATE MORNING.

AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDED TAFS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL PERSIST THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD AS
SOUTHERLY FLOW TAKES HOLD ACROSS THE DESERT SOUTHWEST. A LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE NORTHWARD OFF THE COAST OF BAJA AND
CALIFORNIA BRINGING GOOD CHANCES FOR RAIN ON MONDAY INTO EARLY
TUESDAY. FAIRLY MOIST CONDITIONS WILL ONLY LEAD TO MINIMUM
HUMIDITIES EACH AFTERNOON IN THE 25 TO 35 PERCENT RANGE ACROSS THE
LOWER DESERTS. WITH THE EXCEPTION OF SOME OCCASIONAL AFTERNOON
BREEZINESS...WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT THROUGH THE ENTIRE PERIOD.

&&

.PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

AZ...NONE.

CA...NONE.

&&

$$

VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/PHOENIX

DISCUSSION...HIRSCH
AVIATION...KUHLMAN
FIRE WEATHER...KUHLMAN








000
FXUS65 KPSR 241120
AFDPSR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PHOENIX AZ
420 AM MST SAT JAN 24 2015

.UPDATE...UPDATED AVIATION AND FIRE WEATHER DISCUSSIONS...

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
STRONG HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE WESTERN STATES THIS
WEEKEND...RESULTING IN SUNNY SKIES ALONG WITH A WARMING TREND. A LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL AFFECT THE AREA MONDAY...BRINGING AN INCREASE
IN MOISTURE AND LIGHT PRECIPITATION. IN ITS WAKE...ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES AND HIGHER THAN NORMAL HUMIDITIES WILL PREVAIL THROUGH
THE WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
LARGE ANTICYCLONE IN THE EASTERN PACIFIC CONTINUES TO BUILD EASTWARD
INTO THE WESTERN CONUS. ALONG THE FRONT SIDE OF THE RIDGE...LATEST
RAP ANALYSIS INDICATES THAT A CLOSED MID-LEVEL LOW HAS FORMED ALONG
THE BAJA PENINSULA. FOR THIS WEEKEND...A STRONG SURFACE HIGH ACROSS
THE WEST WILL PREDOMINATE...RESULTING IN MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND A
PERSISTENT EASTERLY FLOW. THE DOWNSLOPE WINDS WILL PROMOTE
COMPRESSIONAL WARMING IN THE LOWER DESERTS WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES IN
THE MID TO UPPER 70S EACH DAY. HOWEVER...FORECAST MAX OF 78 DEGREES
IN PHOENIX FOR SUNDAY WOULD STILL FALL SEVERAL DEGREES SHORT OF THE
RECORD OF 83 DEGREES SET IN 1951.

MODELS CONTINUE TO CONVERGE ON A WETTER SOLUTION FOR MONDAY AS THE
AFOREMENTIONED LOW LATCHES ONTO TROPICAL MOISTURE AND LIFTS
NORTHWARD TOWARDS THE DESERT SOUTHWEST. PWATS NEAR 0.75 INCHES YIELD
STANDARDIZED ANOMALIES OF +2 TO +3 THOUGH DEPICTIONS OF QG-BASED
FORCING REMAIN WEAK. OPERATIONAL GFS ALSO INDICATES THAT MOISTURE
TRANSPORT WILL BE WEAKENING RAPIDLY MONDAY AFTERNOON. LIFT IS
EXPECTED TO BE IN THE FORM OF ISENTROPIC ASCENT...RESULTING IN
PERIODS OF LIGHT RAIN MAINLY MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT. FORECAST POPS
GENERALLY LIE ON THE HIGH END OF THE STATISTICAL GUIDANCE ENVELOPE
AND TOP OUT AROUND 70-80 PERCENT ACROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL AZ.
AREA-AVERAGED QPF IS GENERALLY AROUND ONE TO TWO TENTHS OF AN INCH
OF RAIN. WITH THE CLOUDS AND PRECIPITATION...COOLER TEMPERATURES ARE
ALSO ANTICIPATED.

THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL ACCELERATE NORTHWARD TUESDAY AS THE
RIDGE DRIFTS EASTWARD INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. SUBSIDENCE WILL
OVERSPREAD SOUTHERN ARIZONA WITH ONLY A SLIGHT CHANCE OF RESIDUAL
SHOWERS ACROSS THE CENTRAL DESERTS TUESDAY. WELL-ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES AND HIGHER THAN NORMAL HUMIDITIES WILL PREVAIL THROUGH
NEXT WEEK AS A RIDGE BECOMES REESTABLISHED TO OUR SOUTH ACROSS
MEXICO. ABUNDANT MID AND HIGH CLOUDS ARE ALSO EXPECTED THROUGH THE
WEEK. GLOBAL MODELS CONTINUE TO SUGGEST THAT ANOTHER PACIFIC LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL AFFECT THE REGION LATE NEXT WEEK. THIS SYSTEM
APPEARS SLOWER THAN ITS PREDECESSOR AND HAS THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE
PRECIPITATION IN THE FRIDAY-SUNDAY TIME FRAME...THOUGH THE EXACT
TIMING IS UNCERTAIN THIS FAR OUT.

&&

.AVIATION...
SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA INCLUDING KPHX...KIWA AND KSDL...

BKN CIRRUS DECKS WILL PERSIST THROUGH AROUND MID MORNING BEFORE
CLEARING. A TIGHTENING N-S SURFACE GRADIENT WILL LEAD TO SOMEWHAT
ELEVATED EAST TO NORTHEAST WINDS BY MID MORNING TODAY...WITH A FEW
GUSTS TO AROUND 20 MPH POSSIBLE BY 18Z AT THE TERMINALS. WINDS
SHOULD FAVOR THE EAST THE ENTIRE DAY.

SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA AND SOUTHWEST ARIZONA INCLUDING KIPL AND KBLH...

A TIGHTENING N-S SURFACE GRADIENT WILL LEAD TO ENHANCED NORTH WINDS
DOWN THE LOWER CO RIVER VALLEY LATE THIS MORNING THROUGH EARLY
EVENING TODAY. EXPECT WINDS TO BECOME A BIT GUSTY AT KBLH BY 18Z
SAT...WITH A FEW GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 22KT AT TIMES THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON. LESS WIND AT KIPL...BUT FAVORING NORTH BY LATE MORNING.

AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDED TAFS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL PERSIST THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD AS
SOUTHERLY FLOW TAKES HOLD ACROSS THE DESERT SOUTHWEST. A LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE NORTHWARD OFF THE COAST OF BAJA AND
CALIFORNIA BRINGING GOOD CHANCES FOR RAIN ON MONDAY INTO EARLY
TUESDAY. FAIRLY MOIST CONDITIONS WILL ONLY LEAD TO MINIMUM
HUMIDITIES EACH AFTERNOON IN THE 25 TO 35 PERCENT RANGE ACROSS THE
LOWER DESERTS. WITH THE EXCEPTION OF SOME OCCASIONAL AFTERNOON
BREEZINESS...WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT THROUGH THE ENTIRE PERIOD.

&&

.PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

AZ...NONE.

CA...NONE.

&&

$$

VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/PHOENIX

DISCUSSION...HIRSCH
AVIATION...KUHLMAN
FIRE WEATHER...KUHLMAN








000
FXUS65 KPSR 241120
AFDPSR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PHOENIX AZ
420 AM MST SAT JAN 24 2015

.UPDATE...UPDATED AVIATION AND FIRE WEATHER DISCUSSIONS...

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
STRONG HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE WESTERN STATES THIS
WEEKEND...RESULTING IN SUNNY SKIES ALONG WITH A WARMING TREND. A LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL AFFECT THE AREA MONDAY...BRINGING AN INCREASE
IN MOISTURE AND LIGHT PRECIPITATION. IN ITS WAKE...ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES AND HIGHER THAN NORMAL HUMIDITIES WILL PREVAIL THROUGH
THE WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
LARGE ANTICYCLONE IN THE EASTERN PACIFIC CONTINUES TO BUILD EASTWARD
INTO THE WESTERN CONUS. ALONG THE FRONT SIDE OF THE RIDGE...LATEST
RAP ANALYSIS INDICATES THAT A CLOSED MID-LEVEL LOW HAS FORMED ALONG
THE BAJA PENINSULA. FOR THIS WEEKEND...A STRONG SURFACE HIGH ACROSS
THE WEST WILL PREDOMINATE...RESULTING IN MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND A
PERSISTENT EASTERLY FLOW. THE DOWNSLOPE WINDS WILL PROMOTE
COMPRESSIONAL WARMING IN THE LOWER DESERTS WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES IN
THE MID TO UPPER 70S EACH DAY. HOWEVER...FORECAST MAX OF 78 DEGREES
IN PHOENIX FOR SUNDAY WOULD STILL FALL SEVERAL DEGREES SHORT OF THE
RECORD OF 83 DEGREES SET IN 1951.

MODELS CONTINUE TO CONVERGE ON A WETTER SOLUTION FOR MONDAY AS THE
AFOREMENTIONED LOW LATCHES ONTO TROPICAL MOISTURE AND LIFTS
NORTHWARD TOWARDS THE DESERT SOUTHWEST. PWATS NEAR 0.75 INCHES YIELD
STANDARDIZED ANOMALIES OF +2 TO +3 THOUGH DEPICTIONS OF QG-BASED
FORCING REMAIN WEAK. OPERATIONAL GFS ALSO INDICATES THAT MOISTURE
TRANSPORT WILL BE WEAKENING RAPIDLY MONDAY AFTERNOON. LIFT IS
EXPECTED TO BE IN THE FORM OF ISENTROPIC ASCENT...RESULTING IN
PERIODS OF LIGHT RAIN MAINLY MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT. FORECAST POPS
GENERALLY LIE ON THE HIGH END OF THE STATISTICAL GUIDANCE ENVELOPE
AND TOP OUT AROUND 70-80 PERCENT ACROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL AZ.
AREA-AVERAGED QPF IS GENERALLY AROUND ONE TO TWO TENTHS OF AN INCH
OF RAIN. WITH THE CLOUDS AND PRECIPITATION...COOLER TEMPERATURES ARE
ALSO ANTICIPATED.

THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL ACCELERATE NORTHWARD TUESDAY AS THE
RIDGE DRIFTS EASTWARD INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. SUBSIDENCE WILL
OVERSPREAD SOUTHERN ARIZONA WITH ONLY A SLIGHT CHANCE OF RESIDUAL
SHOWERS ACROSS THE CENTRAL DESERTS TUESDAY. WELL-ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES AND HIGHER THAN NORMAL HUMIDITIES WILL PREVAIL THROUGH
NEXT WEEK AS A RIDGE BECOMES REESTABLISHED TO OUR SOUTH ACROSS
MEXICO. ABUNDANT MID AND HIGH CLOUDS ARE ALSO EXPECTED THROUGH THE
WEEK. GLOBAL MODELS CONTINUE TO SUGGEST THAT ANOTHER PACIFIC LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL AFFECT THE REGION LATE NEXT WEEK. THIS SYSTEM
APPEARS SLOWER THAN ITS PREDECESSOR AND HAS THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE
PRECIPITATION IN THE FRIDAY-SUNDAY TIME FRAME...THOUGH THE EXACT
TIMING IS UNCERTAIN THIS FAR OUT.

&&

.AVIATION...
SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA INCLUDING KPHX...KIWA AND KSDL...

BKN CIRRUS DECKS WILL PERSIST THROUGH AROUND MID MORNING BEFORE
CLEARING. A TIGHTENING N-S SURFACE GRADIENT WILL LEAD TO SOMEWHAT
ELEVATED EAST TO NORTHEAST WINDS BY MID MORNING TODAY...WITH A FEW
GUSTS TO AROUND 20 MPH POSSIBLE BY 18Z AT THE TERMINALS. WINDS
SHOULD FAVOR THE EAST THE ENTIRE DAY.

SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA AND SOUTHWEST ARIZONA INCLUDING KIPL AND KBLH...

A TIGHTENING N-S SURFACE GRADIENT WILL LEAD TO ENHANCED NORTH WINDS
DOWN THE LOWER CO RIVER VALLEY LATE THIS MORNING THROUGH EARLY
EVENING TODAY. EXPECT WINDS TO BECOME A BIT GUSTY AT KBLH BY 18Z
SAT...WITH A FEW GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 22KT AT TIMES THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON. LESS WIND AT KIPL...BUT FAVORING NORTH BY LATE MORNING.

AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDED TAFS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL PERSIST THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD AS
SOUTHERLY FLOW TAKES HOLD ACROSS THE DESERT SOUTHWEST. A LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE NORTHWARD OFF THE COAST OF BAJA AND
CALIFORNIA BRINGING GOOD CHANCES FOR RAIN ON MONDAY INTO EARLY
TUESDAY. FAIRLY MOIST CONDITIONS WILL ONLY LEAD TO MINIMUM
HUMIDITIES EACH AFTERNOON IN THE 25 TO 35 PERCENT RANGE ACROSS THE
LOWER DESERTS. WITH THE EXCEPTION OF SOME OCCASIONAL AFTERNOON
BREEZINESS...WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT THROUGH THE ENTIRE PERIOD.

&&

.PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

AZ...NONE.

CA...NONE.

&&

$$

VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/PHOENIX

DISCUSSION...HIRSCH
AVIATION...KUHLMAN
FIRE WEATHER...KUHLMAN








000
FXUS65 KPSR 241120
AFDPSR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PHOENIX AZ
420 AM MST SAT JAN 24 2015

.UPDATE...UPDATED AVIATION AND FIRE WEATHER DISCUSSIONS...

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
STRONG HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE WESTERN STATES THIS
WEEKEND...RESULTING IN SUNNY SKIES ALONG WITH A WARMING TREND. A LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL AFFECT THE AREA MONDAY...BRINGING AN INCREASE
IN MOISTURE AND LIGHT PRECIPITATION. IN ITS WAKE...ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES AND HIGHER THAN NORMAL HUMIDITIES WILL PREVAIL THROUGH
THE WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
LARGE ANTICYCLONE IN THE EASTERN PACIFIC CONTINUES TO BUILD EASTWARD
INTO THE WESTERN CONUS. ALONG THE FRONT SIDE OF THE RIDGE...LATEST
RAP ANALYSIS INDICATES THAT A CLOSED MID-LEVEL LOW HAS FORMED ALONG
THE BAJA PENINSULA. FOR THIS WEEKEND...A STRONG SURFACE HIGH ACROSS
THE WEST WILL PREDOMINATE...RESULTING IN MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND A
PERSISTENT EASTERLY FLOW. THE DOWNSLOPE WINDS WILL PROMOTE
COMPRESSIONAL WARMING IN THE LOWER DESERTS WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES IN
THE MID TO UPPER 70S EACH DAY. HOWEVER...FORECAST MAX OF 78 DEGREES
IN PHOENIX FOR SUNDAY WOULD STILL FALL SEVERAL DEGREES SHORT OF THE
RECORD OF 83 DEGREES SET IN 1951.

MODELS CONTINUE TO CONVERGE ON A WETTER SOLUTION FOR MONDAY AS THE
AFOREMENTIONED LOW LATCHES ONTO TROPICAL MOISTURE AND LIFTS
NORTHWARD TOWARDS THE DESERT SOUTHWEST. PWATS NEAR 0.75 INCHES YIELD
STANDARDIZED ANOMALIES OF +2 TO +3 THOUGH DEPICTIONS OF QG-BASED
FORCING REMAIN WEAK. OPERATIONAL GFS ALSO INDICATES THAT MOISTURE
TRANSPORT WILL BE WEAKENING RAPIDLY MONDAY AFTERNOON. LIFT IS
EXPECTED TO BE IN THE FORM OF ISENTROPIC ASCENT...RESULTING IN
PERIODS OF LIGHT RAIN MAINLY MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT. FORECAST POPS
GENERALLY LIE ON THE HIGH END OF THE STATISTICAL GUIDANCE ENVELOPE
AND TOP OUT AROUND 70-80 PERCENT ACROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL AZ.
AREA-AVERAGED QPF IS GENERALLY AROUND ONE TO TWO TENTHS OF AN INCH
OF RAIN. WITH THE CLOUDS AND PRECIPITATION...COOLER TEMPERATURES ARE
ALSO ANTICIPATED.

THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL ACCELERATE NORTHWARD TUESDAY AS THE
RIDGE DRIFTS EASTWARD INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. SUBSIDENCE WILL
OVERSPREAD SOUTHERN ARIZONA WITH ONLY A SLIGHT CHANCE OF RESIDUAL
SHOWERS ACROSS THE CENTRAL DESERTS TUESDAY. WELL-ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES AND HIGHER THAN NORMAL HUMIDITIES WILL PREVAIL THROUGH
NEXT WEEK AS A RIDGE BECOMES REESTABLISHED TO OUR SOUTH ACROSS
MEXICO. ABUNDANT MID AND HIGH CLOUDS ARE ALSO EXPECTED THROUGH THE
WEEK. GLOBAL MODELS CONTINUE TO SUGGEST THAT ANOTHER PACIFIC LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL AFFECT THE REGION LATE NEXT WEEK. THIS SYSTEM
APPEARS SLOWER THAN ITS PREDECESSOR AND HAS THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE
PRECIPITATION IN THE FRIDAY-SUNDAY TIME FRAME...THOUGH THE EXACT
TIMING IS UNCERTAIN THIS FAR OUT.

&&

.AVIATION...
SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA INCLUDING KPHX...KIWA AND KSDL...

BKN CIRRUS DECKS WILL PERSIST THROUGH AROUND MID MORNING BEFORE
CLEARING. A TIGHTENING N-S SURFACE GRADIENT WILL LEAD TO SOMEWHAT
ELEVATED EAST TO NORTHEAST WINDS BY MID MORNING TODAY...WITH A FEW
GUSTS TO AROUND 20 MPH POSSIBLE BY 18Z AT THE TERMINALS. WINDS
SHOULD FAVOR THE EAST THE ENTIRE DAY.

SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA AND SOUTHWEST ARIZONA INCLUDING KIPL AND KBLH...

A TIGHTENING N-S SURFACE GRADIENT WILL LEAD TO ENHANCED NORTH WINDS
DOWN THE LOWER CO RIVER VALLEY LATE THIS MORNING THROUGH EARLY
EVENING TODAY. EXPECT WINDS TO BECOME A BIT GUSTY AT KBLH BY 18Z
SAT...WITH A FEW GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 22KT AT TIMES THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON. LESS WIND AT KIPL...BUT FAVORING NORTH BY LATE MORNING.

AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDED TAFS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL PERSIST THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD AS
SOUTHERLY FLOW TAKES HOLD ACROSS THE DESERT SOUTHWEST. A LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE NORTHWARD OFF THE COAST OF BAJA AND
CALIFORNIA BRINGING GOOD CHANCES FOR RAIN ON MONDAY INTO EARLY
TUESDAY. FAIRLY MOIST CONDITIONS WILL ONLY LEAD TO MINIMUM
HUMIDITIES EACH AFTERNOON IN THE 25 TO 35 PERCENT RANGE ACROSS THE
LOWER DESERTS. WITH THE EXCEPTION OF SOME OCCASIONAL AFTERNOON
BREEZINESS...WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT THROUGH THE ENTIRE PERIOD.

&&

.PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

AZ...NONE.

CA...NONE.

&&

$$

VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/PHOENIX

DISCUSSION...HIRSCH
AVIATION...KUHLMAN
FIRE WEATHER...KUHLMAN








000
FXUS65 KFGZ 241038
AFDFGZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ
340 AM MST SAT JAN 24 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
EXPECT DRY AND MILD WEATHER ACROSS NORTHERN ARIZONA THIS WEEKEND.
STARTING MONDAY...A MOIST AND SUB-TROPICAL AIRMASS WILL MOVE
INTO ARIZONA...RESULTING IN A GOOD CHANCE OF MAINLY RAIN SHOWERS
ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
DESPITE A RIDGE BUILDING TO OUR NORTH AND WEST THIS WEEKEND...LOWER
LEVEL NORTHEAST FLOW WILL KEEP AREAS ALONG AND NORTHEAST OF THE
MOGOLLON RIM RELATIVELY COOL. AREAS SOUTH OF THE RIM WILL BECOME
QUITE WARM...NORTHEAST FLOW IS DOWNSLOPE FOR THESE LOCATIONS. THE
NORTHEAST WINDS WILL BE GUSTY AT TIMES OVER AND SOUTH OF THE HIGHER
TERRAIN INCLUDING FLAGSTAFF. SKIES WILL REMAIN MOSTLY CLEAR.

FLOW TURNS SOUTHERLY BY EARLY NEXT WEEK AND A SURGE OF SUB-TROPICAL
MOISTURE IS LIKELY. THIS IS IN RESPONSE TO A WEAK CLOSED LOW OFF THE
COAST OF BAJA THAT IS FORECAST TO TAP INTO A DEEP PLUME OF
MOISTURE...WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES IN EXCESS OF ONE INCH
MOVING INTO SOUTHWEST ARIZONA BY MONDAY MORNING. AS THIS LOW SHIFT
NORTHWARD...EXPECT DEEPER MOISTURE TO MOVE INTO NORTHERN ARIZONA
MONDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH EARLY TUESDAY. RAIN SHOWERS ARE LIKELY WITH
SNOW ONLY AT THE HIGHEST ELEVATIONS...MAINLY ABOVE 8500-9000 FEET.
RAINFALL AMOUNTS SHOULD BE LIGHT TO MODERATE...GENERALLY A QUARTER
TO HALF INCH ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE MOGOLLON RIM...LIGHTER AMOUNTS
NORTH OF THE RIM. FAIR WEATHER IS FORECAST TO RETURN WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY...WITH SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES. LONGER RANGE
MODELS INDICATE THE POSSIBILITY OF ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
AFFECTING THE SOUTHWEST BY FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...AGAIN TAPPING INTO
DEEPER MOISTURE TO OUR SOUTH. A CHANCE OF SHOWERS REMAINS IN THE
FORECAST FOR FRIDAY AND THE WEEKEND...AGAIN MAINLY RAIN SHOWERS WITH
SNOW ONLY AT THE HIGHEST ELEVATIONS.

&&

.AVIATION...
FOR THE 12Z PACKAGE...VFR CONDITIONS FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS UNDER
SKC-SCT CIRRUS. SURFACE WINDS N-NE 10-20KT ALONG AND SOUTHWEST OF
THE MOGOLLON RIM AND LIGHT AND VARIABLE ELSEWHERE. AVIATION
DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR TAF AMENDMENTS.

&&

.FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC.....JJ
AVIATION...DL

FOR NORTHERN ARIZONA WEATHER INFORMATION VISIT
WEATHER.GOV/FLAGSTAFF





000
FXUS65 KFGZ 241038
AFDFGZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ
340 AM MST SAT JAN 24 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
EXPECT DRY AND MILD WEATHER ACROSS NORTHERN ARIZONA THIS WEEKEND.
STARTING MONDAY...A MOIST AND SUB-TROPICAL AIRMASS WILL MOVE
INTO ARIZONA...RESULTING IN A GOOD CHANCE OF MAINLY RAIN SHOWERS
ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
DESPITE A RIDGE BUILDING TO OUR NORTH AND WEST THIS WEEKEND...LOWER
LEVEL NORTHEAST FLOW WILL KEEP AREAS ALONG AND NORTHEAST OF THE
MOGOLLON RIM RELATIVELY COOL. AREAS SOUTH OF THE RIM WILL BECOME
QUITE WARM...NORTHEAST FLOW IS DOWNSLOPE FOR THESE LOCATIONS. THE
NORTHEAST WINDS WILL BE GUSTY AT TIMES OVER AND SOUTH OF THE HIGHER
TERRAIN INCLUDING FLAGSTAFF. SKIES WILL REMAIN MOSTLY CLEAR.

FLOW TURNS SOUTHERLY BY EARLY NEXT WEEK AND A SURGE OF SUB-TROPICAL
MOISTURE IS LIKELY. THIS IS IN RESPONSE TO A WEAK CLOSED LOW OFF THE
COAST OF BAJA THAT IS FORECAST TO TAP INTO A DEEP PLUME OF
MOISTURE...WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES IN EXCESS OF ONE INCH
MOVING INTO SOUTHWEST ARIZONA BY MONDAY MORNING. AS THIS LOW SHIFT
NORTHWARD...EXPECT DEEPER MOISTURE TO MOVE INTO NORTHERN ARIZONA
MONDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH EARLY TUESDAY. RAIN SHOWERS ARE LIKELY WITH
SNOW ONLY AT THE HIGHEST ELEVATIONS...MAINLY ABOVE 8500-9000 FEET.
RAINFALL AMOUNTS SHOULD BE LIGHT TO MODERATE...GENERALLY A QUARTER
TO HALF INCH ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE MOGOLLON RIM...LIGHTER AMOUNTS
NORTH OF THE RIM. FAIR WEATHER IS FORECAST TO RETURN WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY...WITH SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES. LONGER RANGE
MODELS INDICATE THE POSSIBILITY OF ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
AFFECTING THE SOUTHWEST BY FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...AGAIN TAPPING INTO
DEEPER MOISTURE TO OUR SOUTH. A CHANCE OF SHOWERS REMAINS IN THE
FORECAST FOR FRIDAY AND THE WEEKEND...AGAIN MAINLY RAIN SHOWERS WITH
SNOW ONLY AT THE HIGHEST ELEVATIONS.

&&

.AVIATION...
FOR THE 12Z PACKAGE...VFR CONDITIONS FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS UNDER
SKC-SCT CIRRUS. SURFACE WINDS N-NE 10-20KT ALONG AND SOUTHWEST OF
THE MOGOLLON RIM AND LIGHT AND VARIABLE ELSEWHERE. AVIATION
DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR TAF AMENDMENTS.

&&

.FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC.....JJ
AVIATION...DL

FOR NORTHERN ARIZONA WEATHER INFORMATION VISIT
WEATHER.GOV/FLAGSTAFF





000
FXUS65 KFGZ 241038
AFDFGZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ
340 AM MST SAT JAN 24 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
EXPECT DRY AND MILD WEATHER ACROSS NORTHERN ARIZONA THIS WEEKEND.
STARTING MONDAY...A MOIST AND SUB-TROPICAL AIRMASS WILL MOVE
INTO ARIZONA...RESULTING IN A GOOD CHANCE OF MAINLY RAIN SHOWERS
ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
DESPITE A RIDGE BUILDING TO OUR NORTH AND WEST THIS WEEKEND...LOWER
LEVEL NORTHEAST FLOW WILL KEEP AREAS ALONG AND NORTHEAST OF THE
MOGOLLON RIM RELATIVELY COOL. AREAS SOUTH OF THE RIM WILL BECOME
QUITE WARM...NORTHEAST FLOW IS DOWNSLOPE FOR THESE LOCATIONS. THE
NORTHEAST WINDS WILL BE GUSTY AT TIMES OVER AND SOUTH OF THE HIGHER
TERRAIN INCLUDING FLAGSTAFF. SKIES WILL REMAIN MOSTLY CLEAR.

FLOW TURNS SOUTHERLY BY EARLY NEXT WEEK AND A SURGE OF SUB-TROPICAL
MOISTURE IS LIKELY. THIS IS IN RESPONSE TO A WEAK CLOSED LOW OFF THE
COAST OF BAJA THAT IS FORECAST TO TAP INTO A DEEP PLUME OF
MOISTURE...WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES IN EXCESS OF ONE INCH
MOVING INTO SOUTHWEST ARIZONA BY MONDAY MORNING. AS THIS LOW SHIFT
NORTHWARD...EXPECT DEEPER MOISTURE TO MOVE INTO NORTHERN ARIZONA
MONDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH EARLY TUESDAY. RAIN SHOWERS ARE LIKELY WITH
SNOW ONLY AT THE HIGHEST ELEVATIONS...MAINLY ABOVE 8500-9000 FEET.
RAINFALL AMOUNTS SHOULD BE LIGHT TO MODERATE...GENERALLY A QUARTER
TO HALF INCH ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE MOGOLLON RIM...LIGHTER AMOUNTS
NORTH OF THE RIM. FAIR WEATHER IS FORECAST TO RETURN WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY...WITH SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES. LONGER RANGE
MODELS INDICATE THE POSSIBILITY OF ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
AFFECTING THE SOUTHWEST BY FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...AGAIN TAPPING INTO
DEEPER MOISTURE TO OUR SOUTH. A CHANCE OF SHOWERS REMAINS IN THE
FORECAST FOR FRIDAY AND THE WEEKEND...AGAIN MAINLY RAIN SHOWERS WITH
SNOW ONLY AT THE HIGHEST ELEVATIONS.

&&

.AVIATION...
FOR THE 12Z PACKAGE...VFR CONDITIONS FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS UNDER
SKC-SCT CIRRUS. SURFACE WINDS N-NE 10-20KT ALONG AND SOUTHWEST OF
THE MOGOLLON RIM AND LIGHT AND VARIABLE ELSEWHERE. AVIATION
DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR TAF AMENDMENTS.

&&

.FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC.....JJ
AVIATION...DL

FOR NORTHERN ARIZONA WEATHER INFORMATION VISIT
WEATHER.GOV/FLAGSTAFF





000
FXUS65 KFGZ 241038
AFDFGZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ
340 AM MST SAT JAN 24 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
EXPECT DRY AND MILD WEATHER ACROSS NORTHERN ARIZONA THIS WEEKEND.
STARTING MONDAY...A MOIST AND SUB-TROPICAL AIRMASS WILL MOVE
INTO ARIZONA...RESULTING IN A GOOD CHANCE OF MAINLY RAIN SHOWERS
ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
DESPITE A RIDGE BUILDING TO OUR NORTH AND WEST THIS WEEKEND...LOWER
LEVEL NORTHEAST FLOW WILL KEEP AREAS ALONG AND NORTHEAST OF THE
MOGOLLON RIM RELATIVELY COOL. AREAS SOUTH OF THE RIM WILL BECOME
QUITE WARM...NORTHEAST FLOW IS DOWNSLOPE FOR THESE LOCATIONS. THE
NORTHEAST WINDS WILL BE GUSTY AT TIMES OVER AND SOUTH OF THE HIGHER
TERRAIN INCLUDING FLAGSTAFF. SKIES WILL REMAIN MOSTLY CLEAR.

FLOW TURNS SOUTHERLY BY EARLY NEXT WEEK AND A SURGE OF SUB-TROPICAL
MOISTURE IS LIKELY. THIS IS IN RESPONSE TO A WEAK CLOSED LOW OFF THE
COAST OF BAJA THAT IS FORECAST TO TAP INTO A DEEP PLUME OF
MOISTURE...WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES IN EXCESS OF ONE INCH
MOVING INTO SOUTHWEST ARIZONA BY MONDAY MORNING. AS THIS LOW SHIFT
NORTHWARD...EXPECT DEEPER MOISTURE TO MOVE INTO NORTHERN ARIZONA
MONDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH EARLY TUESDAY. RAIN SHOWERS ARE LIKELY WITH
SNOW ONLY AT THE HIGHEST ELEVATIONS...MAINLY ABOVE 8500-9000 FEET.
RAINFALL AMOUNTS SHOULD BE LIGHT TO MODERATE...GENERALLY A QUARTER
TO HALF INCH ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE MOGOLLON RIM...LIGHTER AMOUNTS
NORTH OF THE RIM. FAIR WEATHER IS FORECAST TO RETURN WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY...WITH SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES. LONGER RANGE
MODELS INDICATE THE POSSIBILITY OF ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
AFFECTING THE SOUTHWEST BY FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...AGAIN TAPPING INTO
DEEPER MOISTURE TO OUR SOUTH. A CHANCE OF SHOWERS REMAINS IN THE
FORECAST FOR FRIDAY AND THE WEEKEND...AGAIN MAINLY RAIN SHOWERS WITH
SNOW ONLY AT THE HIGHEST ELEVATIONS.

&&

.AVIATION...
FOR THE 12Z PACKAGE...VFR CONDITIONS FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS UNDER
SKC-SCT CIRRUS. SURFACE WINDS N-NE 10-20KT ALONG AND SOUTHWEST OF
THE MOGOLLON RIM AND LIGHT AND VARIABLE ELSEWHERE. AVIATION
DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR TAF AMENDMENTS.

&&

.FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC.....JJ
AVIATION...DL

FOR NORTHERN ARIZONA WEATHER INFORMATION VISIT
WEATHER.GOV/FLAGSTAFF





000
FXUS65 KPSR 241035
AFDPSR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PHOENIX AZ
335 AM MST SAT JAN 24 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
STRONG HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE WESTERN STATES THIS
WEEKEND...RESULTING IN SUNNY SKIES ALONG WITH A WARMING TREND. A LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL AFFECT THE AREA MONDAY...BRINGING AN INCREASE
IN MOISTURE AND LIGHT PRECIPITATION. IN ITS WAKE...ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES AND HIGHER THAN NORMAL HUMIDITIES WILL PREVAIL THROUGH
THE WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
LARGE ANTICYCLONE IN THE EASTERN PACIFIC CONTINUES TO BUILD EASTWARD
INTO THE WESTERN CONUS. ALONG THE FRONT SIDE OF THE RIDGE...LATEST
RAP ANALYSIS INDICATES THAT A CLOSED MID-LEVEL LOW HAS FORMED ALONG
THE BAJA PENINSULA. FOR THIS WEEKEND...A STRONG SURFACE HIGH ACROSS
THE WEST WILL PREDOMINATE...RESULTING IN MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND A
PERSISTENT EASTERLY FLOW. THE DOWNSLOPE WINDS WILL PROMOTE
COMPRESSIONAL WARMING IN THE LOWER DESERTS WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES IN
THE MID TO UPPER 70S EACH DAY. HOWEVER...FORECAST MAX OF 78 DEGREES
IN PHOENIX FOR SUNDAY WOULD STILL FALL SEVERAL DEGREES SHORT OF THE
RECORD OF 83 DEGREES SET IN 1951.

MODELS CONTINUE TO CONVERGE ON A WETTER SOLUTION FOR MONDAY AS THE
AFOREMENTIONED LOW LATCHES ONTO TROPICAL MOISTURE AND LIFTS
NORTHWARD TOWARDS THE DESERT SOUTHWEST. PWATS NEAR 0.75 INCHES YIELD
STANDARDIZED ANOMALIES OF +2 TO +3 THOUGH DEPICTIONS OF QG-BASED
FORCING REMAIN WEAK. OPERATIONAL GFS ALSO INDICATES THAT MOISTURE
TRANSPORT WILL BE WEAKENING RAPIDLY MONDAY AFTERNOON. LIFT IS
EXPECTED TO BE IN THE FORM OF ISENTROPIC ASCENT...RESULTING IN
PERIODS OF LIGHT RAIN MAINLY MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT. FORECAST POPS
GENERALLY LIE ON THE HIGH END OF THE STATISTICAL GUIDANCE ENVELOPE
AND TOP OUT AROUND 70-80 PERCENT ACROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL AZ.
AREA-AVERAGED QPF IS GENERALLY AROUND ONE TO TWO TENTHS OF AN INCH
OF RAIN. WITH THE CLOUDS AND PRECIPITATION...COOLER TEMPERATURES ARE
ALSO ANTICIPATED.

THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL ACCELERATE NORTHWARD TUESDAY AS THE
RIDGE DRIFTS EASTWARD INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. SUBSIDENCE WILL
OVERSPREAD SOUTHERN ARIZONA WITH ONLY A SLIGHT CHANCE OF RESIDUAL
SHOWERS ACROSS THE CENTRAL DESERTS TUESDAY. WELL-ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES AND HIGHER THAN NORMAL HUMIDITIES WILL PREVAIL THROUGH
NEXT WEEK AS A RIDGE BECOMES REESTABLISHED TO OUR SOUTH ACROSS
MEXICO. ABUNDANT MID AND HIGH CLOUDS ARE ALSO EXPECTED THROUGH THE
WEEK. GLOBAL MODELS CONTINUE TO SUGGEST THAT ANOTHER PACIFIC LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL AFFECT THE REGION LATE NEXT WEEK. THIS SYSTEM
APPEARS SLOWER THAN ITS PREDECESSOR AND HAS THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE
PRECIPITATION IN THE FRIDAY-SUNDAY TIME FRAME...THOUGH THE EXACT
TIMING IS UNCERTAIN THIS FAR OUT.

&&

.AVIATION...
SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA INCLUDING KPHX...KIWA AND KSDL...

BKN CIRRUS DECKS WILL PERSIST OVERNIGHT...THEN THIN AS THE DAY
PROGRESSES...AS A PASSING SHORT WAVE DROPS TO THE SOUTH AND THOUGH
THE CENTRAL DESERTS. OTHERWISE...TIGHTENING N-S SURFACE GRADIENT
WILL LEAD TO SOMEWHAT ELEVATED EAST TO NORTHEAST WINDS BY MID
MORNING ON SATURDAY...WITH A FEW GUSTS OVER 20 MPH POSSIBLE BY 18Z
AT THE TAF SITES. WINDS SHOULD FAVOR THE EAST MOST OF THE DAY ON
SATURDAY AND STRUGGLE TO RETURN TO THE WEST IN THE AFTERNOON HOURS.

ONE NOTE...SOME MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THE POSSIBILITY OF WEAK LLWS
OVER CENTRAL PHOENIX SATURDAY MORNING...DEVELOPING AFTER MIDNIGHT
AND ENDING BY MID MORNING AS NELY WINDS IN THE LOW LEVELS MIX TO THE
SURFACE. MAY SEE NELY WINDS 20-30K AROUND 2-3K FEET DEVELOP
OVERNIGHT WITH RATHER LIGHT SURFACE WINDS LEADING TO WEAK LLWS.
CONFIDENCE RATHER LOW ATTM AND SINCE SHEAR EVENT WOULD BE
BORDERLINE...WILL NOT MENTION IN THE AREA TAFS.

SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA AND SOUTHWEST ARIZONA INCLUDING KIPL AND KBLH...

NO SIGNIFICANT AVIATION IMPACTS NEXT 24 HOURS...ALTHOUGH A
TIGHTENING N-S SURFACE GRADIENT WILL LEAD TO ENHANCED NORTH WINDS
DOWN THE LOWER CO RIVER VALLEY DURING THE DAY SATURDAY. EXPECT WINDS
TO BECOME A BIT GUSTY AT KBLH BY 18Z SAT...WITH A FEW GUSTS IN
EXCESS OF 22KT AT TIMES THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. LESS WIND AT
KIPL...BUT FAVORING NORTH BY LATE MORNING. OTHERWISE BKN CIRRUS
CLOUD DECKS THINNING LATER TONIGHT AND BECOMING FEW-SCT DURING THE
DAY ON SATURDAY.

AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDED TAFS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL PERSIST THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD AS
SOUTHERLY FLOW TAKES HOLD ACROSS THE DESERT SOUTHWEST. A LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE OUT NORTHWARD OFF THE COAST OF BAJA AND
CALIFORNIA BRINGING CHANCES FOR RAIN ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY AND A
SIGNIFICANT INCREASE IN MOISTURE. MINIMUM HUMIDITIES IN THE TEENS ON
SUNDAY WILL INCREASE STARTING MONDAY AND ONLY DIP INTO THE 25 TO 35
PERCENT RANGE ACROSS THE LOWER DESERTS THROUGH THURSDAY. WITH THE
EXCEPTION OF SOME OCCASIONAL AFTERNOON BREEZINESS...WINDS WILL
REMAIN LIGHT THROUGH THE ENTIRE PERIOD.

&&

.PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

AZ...NONE.

CA...NONE.

&&

$$

VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/PHOENIX

DISCUSSION...HIRSCH
AVIATION...CB
FIRE WEATHER...KUHLMAN





000
FXUS65 KPSR 241035
AFDPSR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PHOENIX AZ
335 AM MST SAT JAN 24 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
STRONG HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE WESTERN STATES THIS
WEEKEND...RESULTING IN SUNNY SKIES ALONG WITH A WARMING TREND. A LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL AFFECT THE AREA MONDAY...BRINGING AN INCREASE
IN MOISTURE AND LIGHT PRECIPITATION. IN ITS WAKE...ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES AND HIGHER THAN NORMAL HUMIDITIES WILL PREVAIL THROUGH
THE WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
LARGE ANTICYCLONE IN THE EASTERN PACIFIC CONTINUES TO BUILD EASTWARD
INTO THE WESTERN CONUS. ALONG THE FRONT SIDE OF THE RIDGE...LATEST
RAP ANALYSIS INDICATES THAT A CLOSED MID-LEVEL LOW HAS FORMED ALONG
THE BAJA PENINSULA. FOR THIS WEEKEND...A STRONG SURFACE HIGH ACROSS
THE WEST WILL PREDOMINATE...RESULTING IN MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND A
PERSISTENT EASTERLY FLOW. THE DOWNSLOPE WINDS WILL PROMOTE
COMPRESSIONAL WARMING IN THE LOWER DESERTS WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES IN
THE MID TO UPPER 70S EACH DAY. HOWEVER...FORECAST MAX OF 78 DEGREES
IN PHOENIX FOR SUNDAY WOULD STILL FALL SEVERAL DEGREES SHORT OF THE
RECORD OF 83 DEGREES SET IN 1951.

MODELS CONTINUE TO CONVERGE ON A WETTER SOLUTION FOR MONDAY AS THE
AFOREMENTIONED LOW LATCHES ONTO TROPICAL MOISTURE AND LIFTS
NORTHWARD TOWARDS THE DESERT SOUTHWEST. PWATS NEAR 0.75 INCHES YIELD
STANDARDIZED ANOMALIES OF +2 TO +3 THOUGH DEPICTIONS OF QG-BASED
FORCING REMAIN WEAK. OPERATIONAL GFS ALSO INDICATES THAT MOISTURE
TRANSPORT WILL BE WEAKENING RAPIDLY MONDAY AFTERNOON. LIFT IS
EXPECTED TO BE IN THE FORM OF ISENTROPIC ASCENT...RESULTING IN
PERIODS OF LIGHT RAIN MAINLY MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT. FORECAST POPS
GENERALLY LIE ON THE HIGH END OF THE STATISTICAL GUIDANCE ENVELOPE
AND TOP OUT AROUND 70-80 PERCENT ACROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL AZ.
AREA-AVERAGED QPF IS GENERALLY AROUND ONE TO TWO TENTHS OF AN INCH
OF RAIN. WITH THE CLOUDS AND PRECIPITATION...COOLER TEMPERATURES ARE
ALSO ANTICIPATED.

THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL ACCELERATE NORTHWARD TUESDAY AS THE
RIDGE DRIFTS EASTWARD INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. SUBSIDENCE WILL
OVERSPREAD SOUTHERN ARIZONA WITH ONLY A SLIGHT CHANCE OF RESIDUAL
SHOWERS ACROSS THE CENTRAL DESERTS TUESDAY. WELL-ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES AND HIGHER THAN NORMAL HUMIDITIES WILL PREVAIL THROUGH
NEXT WEEK AS A RIDGE BECOMES REESTABLISHED TO OUR SOUTH ACROSS
MEXICO. ABUNDANT MID AND HIGH CLOUDS ARE ALSO EXPECTED THROUGH THE
WEEK. GLOBAL MODELS CONTINUE TO SUGGEST THAT ANOTHER PACIFIC LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL AFFECT THE REGION LATE NEXT WEEK. THIS SYSTEM
APPEARS SLOWER THAN ITS PREDECESSOR AND HAS THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE
PRECIPITATION IN THE FRIDAY-SUNDAY TIME FRAME...THOUGH THE EXACT
TIMING IS UNCERTAIN THIS FAR OUT.

&&

.AVIATION...
SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA INCLUDING KPHX...KIWA AND KSDL...

BKN CIRRUS DECKS WILL PERSIST OVERNIGHT...THEN THIN AS THE DAY
PROGRESSES...AS A PASSING SHORT WAVE DROPS TO THE SOUTH AND THOUGH
THE CENTRAL DESERTS. OTHERWISE...TIGHTENING N-S SURFACE GRADIENT
WILL LEAD TO SOMEWHAT ELEVATED EAST TO NORTHEAST WINDS BY MID
MORNING ON SATURDAY...WITH A FEW GUSTS OVER 20 MPH POSSIBLE BY 18Z
AT THE TAF SITES. WINDS SHOULD FAVOR THE EAST MOST OF THE DAY ON
SATURDAY AND STRUGGLE TO RETURN TO THE WEST IN THE AFTERNOON HOURS.

ONE NOTE...SOME MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THE POSSIBILITY OF WEAK LLWS
OVER CENTRAL PHOENIX SATURDAY MORNING...DEVELOPING AFTER MIDNIGHT
AND ENDING BY MID MORNING AS NELY WINDS IN THE LOW LEVELS MIX TO THE
SURFACE. MAY SEE NELY WINDS 20-30K AROUND 2-3K FEET DEVELOP
OVERNIGHT WITH RATHER LIGHT SURFACE WINDS LEADING TO WEAK LLWS.
CONFIDENCE RATHER LOW ATTM AND SINCE SHEAR EVENT WOULD BE
BORDERLINE...WILL NOT MENTION IN THE AREA TAFS.

SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA AND SOUTHWEST ARIZONA INCLUDING KIPL AND KBLH...

NO SIGNIFICANT AVIATION IMPACTS NEXT 24 HOURS...ALTHOUGH A
TIGHTENING N-S SURFACE GRADIENT WILL LEAD TO ENHANCED NORTH WINDS
DOWN THE LOWER CO RIVER VALLEY DURING THE DAY SATURDAY. EXPECT WINDS
TO BECOME A BIT GUSTY AT KBLH BY 18Z SAT...WITH A FEW GUSTS IN
EXCESS OF 22KT AT TIMES THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. LESS WIND AT
KIPL...BUT FAVORING NORTH BY LATE MORNING. OTHERWISE BKN CIRRUS
CLOUD DECKS THINNING LATER TONIGHT AND BECOMING FEW-SCT DURING THE
DAY ON SATURDAY.

AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDED TAFS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL PERSIST THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD AS
SOUTHERLY FLOW TAKES HOLD ACROSS THE DESERT SOUTHWEST. A LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE OUT NORTHWARD OFF THE COAST OF BAJA AND
CALIFORNIA BRINGING CHANCES FOR RAIN ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY AND A
SIGNIFICANT INCREASE IN MOISTURE. MINIMUM HUMIDITIES IN THE TEENS ON
SUNDAY WILL INCREASE STARTING MONDAY AND ONLY DIP INTO THE 25 TO 35
PERCENT RANGE ACROSS THE LOWER DESERTS THROUGH THURSDAY. WITH THE
EXCEPTION OF SOME OCCASIONAL AFTERNOON BREEZINESS...WINDS WILL
REMAIN LIGHT THROUGH THE ENTIRE PERIOD.

&&

.PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

AZ...NONE.

CA...NONE.

&&

$$

VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/PHOENIX

DISCUSSION...HIRSCH
AVIATION...CB
FIRE WEATHER...KUHLMAN






000
FXUS65 KTWC 241027
AFDTWC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ
325 AM MST FRI JAN 24 2015

.SYNOPSIS...GUSTY EAST WINDS SATURDAY WITH WARMER AFTERNOON HIGHS
THROUGH THE WEEKEND. A DISTURBANCE JUST WEST OF THE BAJA PENINSULA
WILL GUIDE MOISTURE NORTH AND BRING SHOWERS TO SOUTHERN ARIZONA
MONDAY INTO EARLY TUESDAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...SATELLITE IMAGERY THIS MORNING SHOWED STREAM OF MAINLY
MID TO HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS OVER SONORA AND CHIHUAHUA MEXICO WITH
SCATTERED HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS OVER SRN AZ. RATHER NICE DAY ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA...ALTHOUGH THERE WILL BE GUSTY EAST WINDS AROUND LATER
IN THE DAY. HIGHS TODAY WILL RUN 4-10 DEGREES WARMER THAN FRIDAY.
THE UPPER LOW THAT WILL BE BRINGING WET WEATHER TO THE AREA TO START
THE NEW WORK WEEK HAS ALREADY BECOME CUT-OFF FROM THE MAIN FLOW AND
IS CURRENTLY OFF THE BAJA SPUR THIS MORNING. THIS UPPER LOW WILL
CONTINUE TO DEEPEN TODAY AS IS DRIFTS A LITTLE FURTHER S.

TONIGHT...DEEPER MOISTURE WILL START TO WORK ITS WAY NORTH ACROSS
THE MEXICAN STATES OF DURANGO AND SRN SONORA WITH PRECIPITABLE (PW)
VALUES UP TO 0.80" JUST SOUTH OF HERMOSILLO.

SUNDAY...THE UPPER LOW OFF BAJA WILL START TO LIFT NORTH WITH PW
VALUES ACROSS SRN ARIZONA RISING TO OVER A HALF AN INCH. CLOUD COVER
WILL BE ON THE INCREASE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN AREAS IN THE AFTERNOON.

SUNDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY MONDAY MORNING...SCATTERED LIGHT SHOWERS
WILL BE DEVELOPING S AND W OF TUCSON AS PW VALUES INCREASE UP TO 1".

MONDAY...SHOWERS WILL BE INCREASING AREAWIDE WITH BEST CHANCES BEING
W OF TUCSON. STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY ON QPF VALUES W OF TUCSON WITH
THIS AREA HAVING OF PW VALUES AROUND OR SLIGHTLY HIGHER THAN 1".
CURRENTLY HAVE UP TO 0.20" W OF TUCSON BUT THIS MAY NOT BE HIGH
ENOUGH.

MONDAY NIGHT...WIDESPREAD SHOWERS IN THE EVENING HOURS WITH AREAL
COVERAGE OF SHOWERS DECREASING OVERNIGHT AS DRIER AIR PUSHES IN FROM
THE S AS THE UPPER LOW LIFT N THRU SRN CA.

TUESDAY...SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS...MAINLY ACROSS THE NRN ZONES.

WEDNESDAY...DRY AS UPPER RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE AREA IN ADVANCE OF
NEXT PACIFIC STORM.

THURSDAY...INCREASING CLOUDS AS NEXT PACIFIC STORM APPROACHES SRN
CA/NRN BAJA.

FRIDAY...LOOKS WET AT THIS TIME PER GFS/EC MODELS. MADE SOME SLIGHT
ADJUSTMENT UP TO CLIMO BASED POP GRIDS.

TEMPERATURES FOR MOST OF THE FORECAST PERIOD WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION...VALID THRU 25/12Z.
HIGH PRESSURE AND VFR CONDITIONS WILL BE THE RULE THROUGH THE
WEEKEND. HIGH CLOUDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS
AS AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS TO THE SOUTHWEST OVER THE
PACIFIC. EVEN THOUGH IT IS BEYOND THE SCOPE OF THE LATEST AVIATION
PRODUCTS...WET WEATHER AND DETERIORATING FLYING CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK. AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR
TAF AMENDMENTS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...GUSTY EAST TO SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL BE PRESENT FOR
MUCH OF THE AREA OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. WINDS WILL BE
STRONGEST IN AREAS WHERE TERRAIN FOCUSES WINDS FROM AN EASTERLY
DIRECTION. IT WILL REMAIN DRY THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

AN INCREASE IN MOISTURE...ALONG WITH A FAIRLY HIGH POTENTIAL FOR
SHOWERS WILL OCCUR EARLY NEXT WEEK AS LOW PRESSURE OFF THE BAJA
COAST LIFTS NORTH. THE BEST CHANCE FOR SHOWERS WILL OCCUR MONDAY AND
MONDAY NIGHT. DRY WEATHER IS THEN EXPECTED TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY
BEFORE ANOTHER PACIFIC SYSTEM BRINGS A THREAT OF SHOWERS ONCE AGAIN
LATE NEXT WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND.

&&

.TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...YOUTUBE...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/TUCSON







000
FXUS65 KTWC 241027
AFDTWC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ
325 AM MST FRI JAN 24 2015

.SYNOPSIS...GUSTY EAST WINDS SATURDAY WITH WARMER AFTERNOON HIGHS
THROUGH THE WEEKEND. A DISTURBANCE JUST WEST OF THE BAJA PENINSULA
WILL GUIDE MOISTURE NORTH AND BRING SHOWERS TO SOUTHERN ARIZONA
MONDAY INTO EARLY TUESDAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...SATELLITE IMAGERY THIS MORNING SHOWED STREAM OF MAINLY
MID TO HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS OVER SONORA AND CHIHUAHUA MEXICO WITH
SCATTERED HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS OVER SRN AZ. RATHER NICE DAY ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA...ALTHOUGH THERE WILL BE GUSTY EAST WINDS AROUND LATER
IN THE DAY. HIGHS TODAY WILL RUN 4-10 DEGREES WARMER THAN FRIDAY.
THE UPPER LOW THAT WILL BE BRINGING WET WEATHER TO THE AREA TO START
THE NEW WORK WEEK HAS ALREADY BECOME CUT-OFF FROM THE MAIN FLOW AND
IS CURRENTLY OFF THE BAJA SPUR THIS MORNING. THIS UPPER LOW WILL
CONTINUE TO DEEPEN TODAY AS IS DRIFTS A LITTLE FURTHER S.

TONIGHT...DEEPER MOISTURE WILL START TO WORK ITS WAY NORTH ACROSS
THE MEXICAN STATES OF DURANGO AND SRN SONORA WITH PRECIPITABLE (PW)
VALUES UP TO 0.80" JUST SOUTH OF HERMOSILLO.

SUNDAY...THE UPPER LOW OFF BAJA WILL START TO LIFT NORTH WITH PW
VALUES ACROSS SRN ARIZONA RISING TO OVER A HALF AN INCH. CLOUD COVER
WILL BE ON THE INCREASE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN AREAS IN THE AFTERNOON.

SUNDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY MONDAY MORNING...SCATTERED LIGHT SHOWERS
WILL BE DEVELOPING S AND W OF TUCSON AS PW VALUES INCREASE UP TO 1".

MONDAY...SHOWERS WILL BE INCREASING AREAWIDE WITH BEST CHANCES BEING
W OF TUCSON. STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY ON QPF VALUES W OF TUCSON WITH
THIS AREA HAVING OF PW VALUES AROUND OR SLIGHTLY HIGHER THAN 1".
CURRENTLY HAVE UP TO 0.20" W OF TUCSON BUT THIS MAY NOT BE HIGH
ENOUGH.

MONDAY NIGHT...WIDESPREAD SHOWERS IN THE EVENING HOURS WITH AREAL
COVERAGE OF SHOWERS DECREASING OVERNIGHT AS DRIER AIR PUSHES IN FROM
THE S AS THE UPPER LOW LIFT N THRU SRN CA.

TUESDAY...SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS...MAINLY ACROSS THE NRN ZONES.

WEDNESDAY...DRY AS UPPER RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE AREA IN ADVANCE OF
NEXT PACIFIC STORM.

THURSDAY...INCREASING CLOUDS AS NEXT PACIFIC STORM APPROACHES SRN
CA/NRN BAJA.

FRIDAY...LOOKS WET AT THIS TIME PER GFS/EC MODELS. MADE SOME SLIGHT
ADJUSTMENT UP TO CLIMO BASED POP GRIDS.

TEMPERATURES FOR MOST OF THE FORECAST PERIOD WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION...VALID THRU 25/12Z.
HIGH PRESSURE AND VFR CONDITIONS WILL BE THE RULE THROUGH THE
WEEKEND. HIGH CLOUDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS
AS AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS TO THE SOUTHWEST OVER THE
PACIFIC. EVEN THOUGH IT IS BEYOND THE SCOPE OF THE LATEST AVIATION
PRODUCTS...WET WEATHER AND DETERIORATING FLYING CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK. AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR
TAF AMENDMENTS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...GUSTY EAST TO SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL BE PRESENT FOR
MUCH OF THE AREA OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. WINDS WILL BE
STRONGEST IN AREAS WHERE TERRAIN FOCUSES WINDS FROM AN EASTERLY
DIRECTION. IT WILL REMAIN DRY THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

AN INCREASE IN MOISTURE...ALONG WITH A FAIRLY HIGH POTENTIAL FOR
SHOWERS WILL OCCUR EARLY NEXT WEEK AS LOW PRESSURE OFF THE BAJA
COAST LIFTS NORTH. THE BEST CHANCE FOR SHOWERS WILL OCCUR MONDAY AND
MONDAY NIGHT. DRY WEATHER IS THEN EXPECTED TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY
BEFORE ANOTHER PACIFIC SYSTEM BRINGS A THREAT OF SHOWERS ONCE AGAIN
LATE NEXT WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND.

&&

.TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...YOUTUBE...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/TUCSON






000
FXUS65 KPSR 240347
AFDPSR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PHOENIX AZ
845 PM MST FRI JAN 23 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH CLOUDS WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE REGION TODAY. STRONG HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN DURING THE WEEKEND...RESULTING IN SUNNY SKIES
ALONG WITH A WARMING TREND. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL AFFECT THE
AREA NEXT MONDAY...BRINGING AN INCREASE IN MOISTURE AND A CHANCE OF
SHOWERS. IN ITS WAKE...ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND HIGHER THAN
NORMAL HUMIDITIES WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
UPPER RIDGE CONTINUED TO AMPLIFY ALONG THE WEST COAST...AND AT THE
SAME TIME A WEAK SHORTWAVE WAS DROPPING TO THE SOUTH DOWN THE FRONT
SIDE OF THE RIDGE AND THRU SRN UTAH/AZ/SERN CA. IR IMAGERY SHOWED A
BAND OF VARIABLE HIGH CLOUDS OVER ARIZONA...ASSOCIATED WITH THE
PASSING SHORT WAVE...BUT OVERALL THE AIRMASS OVER AZ WAS DRY AND
STABLE WITH PWAT VALUES BELOW ONE QUARTER OF AN INCH. ALTHOUGH
SURFACE DEWPOINTS HAD CLIMBED A BIT OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS...THEY
WERE STILL ON THE LOW SIDE RANGING MOSTLY FROM THE MID TEENS TO THE
MID 20S OVER THE DESERTS. AS THE SHORT WAVE DROPS FURTHER TO THE
SOUTH TONIGHT...PROGS CONTINUE TO CALL FOR THE SWRN PORTION TO PINCH
OFF...AND FORM A CLOSED LOW OVER NRN/CENTRAL BAJA BY EARLY SATURDAY
MORNING. EVENTUALLY THIS CLOSED FEATURE WILL BRING MOISTURE
NORTHWARD AND INTO THE LOWER DESERTS...AND USHER IN A CHANCE FOR
SHOWERS...BUT NOT UNTIL AFTER THE WEEKEND HAS PASSED. FOR THE REST
OF TONIGHT EXPECT PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES...RELATIVELY LIGHT WINDS AND
COOL OVERNIGHT LOW TEMPERATURES. FORECASTS LOOK TO BE IN GOOD SHAPE
AND NO UPDATES ARE NEEDED ATTM.

.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
EARLY AFTERNOON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY CONTINUES TO REVEAL WEAK UPPER
LEVEL LOW PRESSURE OVER NORTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA...WITH A BAND OF
MID LEVEL MOISTURE STRETCHING NORTHEASTWARD INTO UTAH. AT THE
SURFACE THIS HAS RESULTED IN A BRIEF INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER ACROSS
THE AREA...NOTHING OF SIGNIFICANT CONSEQUENCE AS REGIONAL RADAR
IMAGERY REMAINS DRY. CLOUDS HAVE HAD A NEGLIGIBLE IMPACT ON
TEMPERATURES THUS FAR WITH 2040Z DESERT READINGS GENERALLY AROUND 60
DEGREES.

THE FORECAST THROUGH THE WEEKEND WILL BE ONE OF INCREASING HEIGHTS
ALOFT...MODEST BOUNDARY LAYER WARMING...AND MOSTLY SUNNY/PARTLY
CLOUD SKIES. AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES WILL CLIMB ALL THE WAY INTO THE
UPPER 70S BOTH SATURDAY AND SUNDAY WHICH ISN`T QUITE RECORD
THREATENING...BUT ISN`T ALL THAT FAR AWAY. WEATHER IMPACTS THIS
WEEKEND SHOULD BE NEGLIGIBLE.

MEANWHILE DURING THE WEEKEND...THE WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH NOTED OVER
UTAH WILL DIVE SOUTHWARD AND CUT OFF/DEEPEN JUST WEST OF NORTHERN
BAJA CALIFORNIA...RESULTING IN A REX BLOCK PATTERN BY LATE SUNDAY
NIGHT. THIS HAS BEEN ADVERTISED TO VARIOUS DEGREES BY THE EC/GEM/GFS
OVER THE PAST FEW DAYS BUT TODAY`S 00Z MODELS ALL CAME INTO DECENT
AGREEMENT. ALL MODELS SHOW +2 TO +3 SIGMA PWATS ADVECTING NORTHWARD
INTO THE REGION BY MONDAY MORNING WITH SHOWERS DEVELOPING OVER THE
AREA MONDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING. THIS WAS ALSO CONFIRMED BY THIS
MORNING`S 00Z NAEFS AND THE 12Z OPERATIONAL SUITE OF GUIDANCE. GIVEN
THIS STRONG CONSENSUS...I ELECTED TO RAISE POPS INTO THE 60-70
PERCENT RANGE ACROSS THE AREA FROM 18Z MONDAY THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY.
AT THIS POINT THIS APPEARS TO BE ANOTHER HIGH PROB...LOW QPF EVENT
ALTHOUGH WITH PWATS APPROACHING 1 INCH IN SOME LOCATIONS...CANNOT
RULE OUT ISOLATED HIGHER AMOUNTS. WILL NEED TO PIN DOWN MORE PRECISE
QPF AS WE GET A BIT CLOSER TO THE EVENT.

THE LOW EXITS THE AREA RAPIDLY BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON...RESULTING IN
CLEARING SKIES ACROSS THE AREA. HOWEVER...BROAD SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW
WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH MOST OF THE UPCOMING WEEK AS
YET ANOTHER CLOSED CIRCULATION BREAKS FREE FROM THE WESTERLIES AND
STALLS OFF THE BAJA COAST. THIS WILL RESULT IN A PROLONGED PERIOD OF
SOMEWHAT ELEVATED DEWPOINTS AND ABUNDANT 500-300MB MOISTURE. PARTLY
SUNNY/MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES ARE EXPECTED FROM WEDNESDAY ONWARD WITH AN
INCREASED CHANCE OF SHOWERS AS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH APPROACHES
THURSDAY/FRIDAY. TIMING THE EXACT PERIOD WHERE INCREASED POPS ARE
WARRANTED VERY DIFFICULT THIS FAR IN ADVANCE

&&

.AVIATION...
SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA INCLUDING KPHX...KIWA AND KSDL...

BKN CIRRUS DECKS WILL PERSIST OVERNIGHT...THEN THIN AS THE DAY
PROGRESSES...AS A PASSING SHORT WAVE DROPS TO THE SOUTH AND THOUGH
THE CENTRAL DESERTS. OTHERWISE...TIGHTENING N-S SURFACE GRADIENT
WILL LEAD TO SOMEWHAT ELEVATED EAST TO NORTHEAST WINDS BY MID
MORNING ON SATURDAY...WITH A FEW GUSTS OVER 20 MPH POSSIBLE BY 18Z
AT THE TAF SITES. WINDS SHOULD FAVOR THE EAST MOST OF THE DAY ON
SATURDAY AND STRUGGLE TO RETURN TO THE WEST IN THE AFTERNOON HOURS.

ONE NOTE...SOME MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THE POSSIBILITY OF WEAK LLWS
OVER CENTRAL PHOENIX SATURDAY MORNING...DEVELOPING AFTER MIDNIGHT
AND ENDING BY MID MORNING AS NELY WINDS IN THE LOW LEVELS MIX TO THE
SURFACE. MAY SEE NELY WINDS 20-30K AROUND 2-3K FEET DEVELOP
OVERNIGHT WITH RATHER LIGHT SURFACE WINDS LEADING TO WEAK LLWS.
CONFIDENCE RATHER LOW ATTM AND SINCE SHEAR EVENT WOULD BE
BORDERLINE...WILL NOT MENTION IN THE AREA TAFS.

SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA AND SOUTHWEST ARIZONA INCLUDING KIPL AND KBLH...

NO SIGNIFICANT AVIATION IMPACTS NEXT 24 HOURS...ALTHOUGH A
TIGHTENING N-S SURFACE GRADIENT WILL LEAD TO ENHANCED NORTH WINDS
DOWN THE LOWER CO RIVER VALLEY DURING THE DAY SATURDAY. EXPECT WINDS
TO BECOME A BIT GUSTY AT KBLH BY 18Z SAT...WITH A FEW GUSTS IN
EXCESS OF 22KT AT TIMES THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. LESS WIND AT
KIPL...BUT FAVORING NORTH BY LATE MORNING. OTHERWISE BKN CIRRUS
CLOUD DECKS THINNING LATER TONIGHT AND BECOMING FEW-SCT DURING THE
DAY ON SATURDAY.

AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDED TAFS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL PERSIST THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD AS
SOUTHERLY FLOW TAKES HOLD ACROSS THE DESERT SOUTHWEST. A LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE OUT NORTHWARD OFF THE COAST OF BAJA AND
CALIFORNIA BRINGING CHANCES FOR RAIN ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY AND A
SIGNIFICANT INCREASE IN MOISTURE. MINIMUM HUMIDITIES IN THE TEENS ON
SUNDAY WILL INCREASE STARTING MONDAY AND ONLY DIP INTO THE 25 TO 35
PERCENT RANGE ACROSS THE LOWER DESERTS THROUGH THURSDAY. WITH THE
EXCEPTION OF SOME OCCASIONAL AFTERNOON BREEZINESS...WINDS WILL
REMAIN LIGHT THROUGH THE ENTIRE PERIOD.

&&

.PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

AZ...NONE.

CA...NONE.

&&

$$

VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/PHOENIX

DISCUSSION...CB
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...LEINS
AVIATION...CB
FIRE WEATHER...KUHLMAN








000
FXUS65 KPSR 240347
AFDPSR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PHOENIX AZ
845 PM MST FRI JAN 23 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH CLOUDS WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE REGION TODAY. STRONG HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN DURING THE WEEKEND...RESULTING IN SUNNY SKIES
ALONG WITH A WARMING TREND. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL AFFECT THE
AREA NEXT MONDAY...BRINGING AN INCREASE IN MOISTURE AND A CHANCE OF
SHOWERS. IN ITS WAKE...ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND HIGHER THAN
NORMAL HUMIDITIES WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
UPPER RIDGE CONTINUED TO AMPLIFY ALONG THE WEST COAST...AND AT THE
SAME TIME A WEAK SHORTWAVE WAS DROPPING TO THE SOUTH DOWN THE FRONT
SIDE OF THE RIDGE AND THRU SRN UTAH/AZ/SERN CA. IR IMAGERY SHOWED A
BAND OF VARIABLE HIGH CLOUDS OVER ARIZONA...ASSOCIATED WITH THE
PASSING SHORT WAVE...BUT OVERALL THE AIRMASS OVER AZ WAS DRY AND
STABLE WITH PWAT VALUES BELOW ONE QUARTER OF AN INCH. ALTHOUGH
SURFACE DEWPOINTS HAD CLIMBED A BIT OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS...THEY
WERE STILL ON THE LOW SIDE RANGING MOSTLY FROM THE MID TEENS TO THE
MID 20S OVER THE DESERTS. AS THE SHORT WAVE DROPS FURTHER TO THE
SOUTH TONIGHT...PROGS CONTINUE TO CALL FOR THE SWRN PORTION TO PINCH
OFF...AND FORM A CLOSED LOW OVER NRN/CENTRAL BAJA BY EARLY SATURDAY
MORNING. EVENTUALLY THIS CLOSED FEATURE WILL BRING MOISTURE
NORTHWARD AND INTO THE LOWER DESERTS...AND USHER IN A CHANCE FOR
SHOWERS...BUT NOT UNTIL AFTER THE WEEKEND HAS PASSED. FOR THE REST
OF TONIGHT EXPECT PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES...RELATIVELY LIGHT WINDS AND
COOL OVERNIGHT LOW TEMPERATURES. FORECASTS LOOK TO BE IN GOOD SHAPE
AND NO UPDATES ARE NEEDED ATTM.

.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
EARLY AFTERNOON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY CONTINUES TO REVEAL WEAK UPPER
LEVEL LOW PRESSURE OVER NORTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA...WITH A BAND OF
MID LEVEL MOISTURE STRETCHING NORTHEASTWARD INTO UTAH. AT THE
SURFACE THIS HAS RESULTED IN A BRIEF INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER ACROSS
THE AREA...NOTHING OF SIGNIFICANT CONSEQUENCE AS REGIONAL RADAR
IMAGERY REMAINS DRY. CLOUDS HAVE HAD A NEGLIGIBLE IMPACT ON
TEMPERATURES THUS FAR WITH 2040Z DESERT READINGS GENERALLY AROUND 60
DEGREES.

THE FORECAST THROUGH THE WEEKEND WILL BE ONE OF INCREASING HEIGHTS
ALOFT...MODEST BOUNDARY LAYER WARMING...AND MOSTLY SUNNY/PARTLY
CLOUD SKIES. AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES WILL CLIMB ALL THE WAY INTO THE
UPPER 70S BOTH SATURDAY AND SUNDAY WHICH ISN`T QUITE RECORD
THREATENING...BUT ISN`T ALL THAT FAR AWAY. WEATHER IMPACTS THIS
WEEKEND SHOULD BE NEGLIGIBLE.

MEANWHILE DURING THE WEEKEND...THE WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH NOTED OVER
UTAH WILL DIVE SOUTHWARD AND CUT OFF/DEEPEN JUST WEST OF NORTHERN
BAJA CALIFORNIA...RESULTING IN A REX BLOCK PATTERN BY LATE SUNDAY
NIGHT. THIS HAS BEEN ADVERTISED TO VARIOUS DEGREES BY THE EC/GEM/GFS
OVER THE PAST FEW DAYS BUT TODAY`S 00Z MODELS ALL CAME INTO DECENT
AGREEMENT. ALL MODELS SHOW +2 TO +3 SIGMA PWATS ADVECTING NORTHWARD
INTO THE REGION BY MONDAY MORNING WITH SHOWERS DEVELOPING OVER THE
AREA MONDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING. THIS WAS ALSO CONFIRMED BY THIS
MORNING`S 00Z NAEFS AND THE 12Z OPERATIONAL SUITE OF GUIDANCE. GIVEN
THIS STRONG CONSENSUS...I ELECTED TO RAISE POPS INTO THE 60-70
PERCENT RANGE ACROSS THE AREA FROM 18Z MONDAY THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY.
AT THIS POINT THIS APPEARS TO BE ANOTHER HIGH PROB...LOW QPF EVENT
ALTHOUGH WITH PWATS APPROACHING 1 INCH IN SOME LOCATIONS...CANNOT
RULE OUT ISOLATED HIGHER AMOUNTS. WILL NEED TO PIN DOWN MORE PRECISE
QPF AS WE GET A BIT CLOSER TO THE EVENT.

THE LOW EXITS THE AREA RAPIDLY BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON...RESULTING IN
CLEARING SKIES ACROSS THE AREA. HOWEVER...BROAD SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW
WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH MOST OF THE UPCOMING WEEK AS
YET ANOTHER CLOSED CIRCULATION BREAKS FREE FROM THE WESTERLIES AND
STALLS OFF THE BAJA COAST. THIS WILL RESULT IN A PROLONGED PERIOD OF
SOMEWHAT ELEVATED DEWPOINTS AND ABUNDANT 500-300MB MOISTURE. PARTLY
SUNNY/MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES ARE EXPECTED FROM WEDNESDAY ONWARD WITH AN
INCREASED CHANCE OF SHOWERS AS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH APPROACHES
THURSDAY/FRIDAY. TIMING THE EXACT PERIOD WHERE INCREASED POPS ARE
WARRANTED VERY DIFFICULT THIS FAR IN ADVANCE

&&

.AVIATION...
SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA INCLUDING KPHX...KIWA AND KSDL...

BKN CIRRUS DECKS WILL PERSIST OVERNIGHT...THEN THIN AS THE DAY
PROGRESSES...AS A PASSING SHORT WAVE DROPS TO THE SOUTH AND THOUGH
THE CENTRAL DESERTS. OTHERWISE...TIGHTENING N-S SURFACE GRADIENT
WILL LEAD TO SOMEWHAT ELEVATED EAST TO NORTHEAST WINDS BY MID
MORNING ON SATURDAY...WITH A FEW GUSTS OVER 20 MPH POSSIBLE BY 18Z
AT THE TAF SITES. WINDS SHOULD FAVOR THE EAST MOST OF THE DAY ON
SATURDAY AND STRUGGLE TO RETURN TO THE WEST IN THE AFTERNOON HOURS.

ONE NOTE...SOME MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THE POSSIBILITY OF WEAK LLWS
OVER CENTRAL PHOENIX SATURDAY MORNING...DEVELOPING AFTER MIDNIGHT
AND ENDING BY MID MORNING AS NELY WINDS IN THE LOW LEVELS MIX TO THE
SURFACE. MAY SEE NELY WINDS 20-30K AROUND 2-3K FEET DEVELOP
OVERNIGHT WITH RATHER LIGHT SURFACE WINDS LEADING TO WEAK LLWS.
CONFIDENCE RATHER LOW ATTM AND SINCE SHEAR EVENT WOULD BE
BORDERLINE...WILL NOT MENTION IN THE AREA TAFS.

SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA AND SOUTHWEST ARIZONA INCLUDING KIPL AND KBLH...

NO SIGNIFICANT AVIATION IMPACTS NEXT 24 HOURS...ALTHOUGH A
TIGHTENING N-S SURFACE GRADIENT WILL LEAD TO ENHANCED NORTH WINDS
DOWN THE LOWER CO RIVER VALLEY DURING THE DAY SATURDAY. EXPECT WINDS
TO BECOME A BIT GUSTY AT KBLH BY 18Z SAT...WITH A FEW GUSTS IN
EXCESS OF 22KT AT TIMES THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. LESS WIND AT
KIPL...BUT FAVORING NORTH BY LATE MORNING. OTHERWISE BKN CIRRUS
CLOUD DECKS THINNING LATER TONIGHT AND BECOMING FEW-SCT DURING THE
DAY ON SATURDAY.

AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDED TAFS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL PERSIST THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD AS
SOUTHERLY FLOW TAKES HOLD ACROSS THE DESERT SOUTHWEST. A LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE OUT NORTHWARD OFF THE COAST OF BAJA AND
CALIFORNIA BRINGING CHANCES FOR RAIN ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY AND A
SIGNIFICANT INCREASE IN MOISTURE. MINIMUM HUMIDITIES IN THE TEENS ON
SUNDAY WILL INCREASE STARTING MONDAY AND ONLY DIP INTO THE 25 TO 35
PERCENT RANGE ACROSS THE LOWER DESERTS THROUGH THURSDAY. WITH THE
EXCEPTION OF SOME OCCASIONAL AFTERNOON BREEZINESS...WINDS WILL
REMAIN LIGHT THROUGH THE ENTIRE PERIOD.

&&

.PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

AZ...NONE.

CA...NONE.

&&

$$

VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/PHOENIX

DISCUSSION...CB
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...LEINS
AVIATION...CB
FIRE WEATHER...KUHLMAN









000
FXUS65 KPSR 240347
AFDPSR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PHOENIX AZ
845 PM MST FRI JAN 23 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH CLOUDS WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE REGION TODAY. STRONG HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN DURING THE WEEKEND...RESULTING IN SUNNY SKIES
ALONG WITH A WARMING TREND. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL AFFECT THE
AREA NEXT MONDAY...BRINGING AN INCREASE IN MOISTURE AND A CHANCE OF
SHOWERS. IN ITS WAKE...ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND HIGHER THAN
NORMAL HUMIDITIES WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
UPPER RIDGE CONTINUED TO AMPLIFY ALONG THE WEST COAST...AND AT THE
SAME TIME A WEAK SHORTWAVE WAS DROPPING TO THE SOUTH DOWN THE FRONT
SIDE OF THE RIDGE AND THRU SRN UTAH/AZ/SERN CA. IR IMAGERY SHOWED A
BAND OF VARIABLE HIGH CLOUDS OVER ARIZONA...ASSOCIATED WITH THE
PASSING SHORT WAVE...BUT OVERALL THE AIRMASS OVER AZ WAS DRY AND
STABLE WITH PWAT VALUES BELOW ONE QUARTER OF AN INCH. ALTHOUGH
SURFACE DEWPOINTS HAD CLIMBED A BIT OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS...THEY
WERE STILL ON THE LOW SIDE RANGING MOSTLY FROM THE MID TEENS TO THE
MID 20S OVER THE DESERTS. AS THE SHORT WAVE DROPS FURTHER TO THE
SOUTH TONIGHT...PROGS CONTINUE TO CALL FOR THE SWRN PORTION TO PINCH
OFF...AND FORM A CLOSED LOW OVER NRN/CENTRAL BAJA BY EARLY SATURDAY
MORNING. EVENTUALLY THIS CLOSED FEATURE WILL BRING MOISTURE
NORTHWARD AND INTO THE LOWER DESERTS...AND USHER IN A CHANCE FOR
SHOWERS...BUT NOT UNTIL AFTER THE WEEKEND HAS PASSED. FOR THE REST
OF TONIGHT EXPECT PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES...RELATIVELY LIGHT WINDS AND
COOL OVERNIGHT LOW TEMPERATURES. FORECASTS LOOK TO BE IN GOOD SHAPE
AND NO UPDATES ARE NEEDED ATTM.

.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
EARLY AFTERNOON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY CONTINUES TO REVEAL WEAK UPPER
LEVEL LOW PRESSURE OVER NORTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA...WITH A BAND OF
MID LEVEL MOISTURE STRETCHING NORTHEASTWARD INTO UTAH. AT THE
SURFACE THIS HAS RESULTED IN A BRIEF INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER ACROSS
THE AREA...NOTHING OF SIGNIFICANT CONSEQUENCE AS REGIONAL RADAR
IMAGERY REMAINS DRY. CLOUDS HAVE HAD A NEGLIGIBLE IMPACT ON
TEMPERATURES THUS FAR WITH 2040Z DESERT READINGS GENERALLY AROUND 60
DEGREES.

THE FORECAST THROUGH THE WEEKEND WILL BE ONE OF INCREASING HEIGHTS
ALOFT...MODEST BOUNDARY LAYER WARMING...AND MOSTLY SUNNY/PARTLY
CLOUD SKIES. AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES WILL CLIMB ALL THE WAY INTO THE
UPPER 70S BOTH SATURDAY AND SUNDAY WHICH ISN`T QUITE RECORD
THREATENING...BUT ISN`T ALL THAT FAR AWAY. WEATHER IMPACTS THIS
WEEKEND SHOULD BE NEGLIGIBLE.

MEANWHILE DURING THE WEEKEND...THE WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH NOTED OVER
UTAH WILL DIVE SOUTHWARD AND CUT OFF/DEEPEN JUST WEST OF NORTHERN
BAJA CALIFORNIA...RESULTING IN A REX BLOCK PATTERN BY LATE SUNDAY
NIGHT. THIS HAS BEEN ADVERTISED TO VARIOUS DEGREES BY THE EC/GEM/GFS
OVER THE PAST FEW DAYS BUT TODAY`S 00Z MODELS ALL CAME INTO DECENT
AGREEMENT. ALL MODELS SHOW +2 TO +3 SIGMA PWATS ADVECTING NORTHWARD
INTO THE REGION BY MONDAY MORNING WITH SHOWERS DEVELOPING OVER THE
AREA MONDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING. THIS WAS ALSO CONFIRMED BY THIS
MORNING`S 00Z NAEFS AND THE 12Z OPERATIONAL SUITE OF GUIDANCE. GIVEN
THIS STRONG CONSENSUS...I ELECTED TO RAISE POPS INTO THE 60-70
PERCENT RANGE ACROSS THE AREA FROM 18Z MONDAY THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY.
AT THIS POINT THIS APPEARS TO BE ANOTHER HIGH PROB...LOW QPF EVENT
ALTHOUGH WITH PWATS APPROACHING 1 INCH IN SOME LOCATIONS...CANNOT
RULE OUT ISOLATED HIGHER AMOUNTS. WILL NEED TO PIN DOWN MORE PRECISE
QPF AS WE GET A BIT CLOSER TO THE EVENT.

THE LOW EXITS THE AREA RAPIDLY BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON...RESULTING IN
CLEARING SKIES ACROSS THE AREA. HOWEVER...BROAD SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW
WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH MOST OF THE UPCOMING WEEK AS
YET ANOTHER CLOSED CIRCULATION BREAKS FREE FROM THE WESTERLIES AND
STALLS OFF THE BAJA COAST. THIS WILL RESULT IN A PROLONGED PERIOD OF
SOMEWHAT ELEVATED DEWPOINTS AND ABUNDANT 500-300MB MOISTURE. PARTLY
SUNNY/MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES ARE EXPECTED FROM WEDNESDAY ONWARD WITH AN
INCREASED CHANCE OF SHOWERS AS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH APPROACHES
THURSDAY/FRIDAY. TIMING THE EXACT PERIOD WHERE INCREASED POPS ARE
WARRANTED VERY DIFFICULT THIS FAR IN ADVANCE

&&

.AVIATION...
SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA INCLUDING KPHX...KIWA AND KSDL...

BKN CIRRUS DECKS WILL PERSIST OVERNIGHT...THEN THIN AS THE DAY
PROGRESSES...AS A PASSING SHORT WAVE DROPS TO THE SOUTH AND THOUGH
THE CENTRAL DESERTS. OTHERWISE...TIGHTENING N-S SURFACE GRADIENT
WILL LEAD TO SOMEWHAT ELEVATED EAST TO NORTHEAST WINDS BY MID
MORNING ON SATURDAY...WITH A FEW GUSTS OVER 20 MPH POSSIBLE BY 18Z
AT THE TAF SITES. WINDS SHOULD FAVOR THE EAST MOST OF THE DAY ON
SATURDAY AND STRUGGLE TO RETURN TO THE WEST IN THE AFTERNOON HOURS.

ONE NOTE...SOME MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THE POSSIBILITY OF WEAK LLWS
OVER CENTRAL PHOENIX SATURDAY MORNING...DEVELOPING AFTER MIDNIGHT
AND ENDING BY MID MORNING AS NELY WINDS IN THE LOW LEVELS MIX TO THE
SURFACE. MAY SEE NELY WINDS 20-30K AROUND 2-3K FEET DEVELOP
OVERNIGHT WITH RATHER LIGHT SURFACE WINDS LEADING TO WEAK LLWS.
CONFIDENCE RATHER LOW ATTM AND SINCE SHEAR EVENT WOULD BE
BORDERLINE...WILL NOT MENTION IN THE AREA TAFS.

SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA AND SOUTHWEST ARIZONA INCLUDING KIPL AND KBLH...

NO SIGNIFICANT AVIATION IMPACTS NEXT 24 HOURS...ALTHOUGH A
TIGHTENING N-S SURFACE GRADIENT WILL LEAD TO ENHANCED NORTH WINDS
DOWN THE LOWER CO RIVER VALLEY DURING THE DAY SATURDAY. EXPECT WINDS
TO BECOME A BIT GUSTY AT KBLH BY 18Z SAT...WITH A FEW GUSTS IN
EXCESS OF 22KT AT TIMES THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. LESS WIND AT
KIPL...BUT FAVORING NORTH BY LATE MORNING. OTHERWISE BKN CIRRUS
CLOUD DECKS THINNING LATER TONIGHT AND BECOMING FEW-SCT DURING THE
DAY ON SATURDAY.

AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDED TAFS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL PERSIST THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD AS
SOUTHERLY FLOW TAKES HOLD ACROSS THE DESERT SOUTHWEST. A LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE OUT NORTHWARD OFF THE COAST OF BAJA AND
CALIFORNIA BRINGING CHANCES FOR RAIN ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY AND A
SIGNIFICANT INCREASE IN MOISTURE. MINIMUM HUMIDITIES IN THE TEENS ON
SUNDAY WILL INCREASE STARTING MONDAY AND ONLY DIP INTO THE 25 TO 35
PERCENT RANGE ACROSS THE LOWER DESERTS THROUGH THURSDAY. WITH THE
EXCEPTION OF SOME OCCASIONAL AFTERNOON BREEZINESS...WINDS WILL
REMAIN LIGHT THROUGH THE ENTIRE PERIOD.

&&

.PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

AZ...NONE.

CA...NONE.

&&

$$

VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/PHOENIX

DISCUSSION...CB
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...LEINS
AVIATION...CB
FIRE WEATHER...KUHLMAN









000
FXUS65 KPSR 240347
AFDPSR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PHOENIX AZ
845 PM MST FRI JAN 23 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH CLOUDS WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE REGION TODAY. STRONG HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN DURING THE WEEKEND...RESULTING IN SUNNY SKIES
ALONG WITH A WARMING TREND. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL AFFECT THE
AREA NEXT MONDAY...BRINGING AN INCREASE IN MOISTURE AND A CHANCE OF
SHOWERS. IN ITS WAKE...ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND HIGHER THAN
NORMAL HUMIDITIES WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
UPPER RIDGE CONTINUED TO AMPLIFY ALONG THE WEST COAST...AND AT THE
SAME TIME A WEAK SHORTWAVE WAS DROPPING TO THE SOUTH DOWN THE FRONT
SIDE OF THE RIDGE AND THRU SRN UTAH/AZ/SERN CA. IR IMAGERY SHOWED A
BAND OF VARIABLE HIGH CLOUDS OVER ARIZONA...ASSOCIATED WITH THE
PASSING SHORT WAVE...BUT OVERALL THE AIRMASS OVER AZ WAS DRY AND
STABLE WITH PWAT VALUES BELOW ONE QUARTER OF AN INCH. ALTHOUGH
SURFACE DEWPOINTS HAD CLIMBED A BIT OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS...THEY
WERE STILL ON THE LOW SIDE RANGING MOSTLY FROM THE MID TEENS TO THE
MID 20S OVER THE DESERTS. AS THE SHORT WAVE DROPS FURTHER TO THE
SOUTH TONIGHT...PROGS CONTINUE TO CALL FOR THE SWRN PORTION TO PINCH
OFF...AND FORM A CLOSED LOW OVER NRN/CENTRAL BAJA BY EARLY SATURDAY
MORNING. EVENTUALLY THIS CLOSED FEATURE WILL BRING MOISTURE
NORTHWARD AND INTO THE LOWER DESERTS...AND USHER IN A CHANCE FOR
SHOWERS...BUT NOT UNTIL AFTER THE WEEKEND HAS PASSED. FOR THE REST
OF TONIGHT EXPECT PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES...RELATIVELY LIGHT WINDS AND
COOL OVERNIGHT LOW TEMPERATURES. FORECASTS LOOK TO BE IN GOOD SHAPE
AND NO UPDATES ARE NEEDED ATTM.

.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
EARLY AFTERNOON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY CONTINUES TO REVEAL WEAK UPPER
LEVEL LOW PRESSURE OVER NORTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA...WITH A BAND OF
MID LEVEL MOISTURE STRETCHING NORTHEASTWARD INTO UTAH. AT THE
SURFACE THIS HAS RESULTED IN A BRIEF INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER ACROSS
THE AREA...NOTHING OF SIGNIFICANT CONSEQUENCE AS REGIONAL RADAR
IMAGERY REMAINS DRY. CLOUDS HAVE HAD A NEGLIGIBLE IMPACT ON
TEMPERATURES THUS FAR WITH 2040Z DESERT READINGS GENERALLY AROUND 60
DEGREES.

THE FORECAST THROUGH THE WEEKEND WILL BE ONE OF INCREASING HEIGHTS
ALOFT...MODEST BOUNDARY LAYER WARMING...AND MOSTLY SUNNY/PARTLY
CLOUD SKIES. AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES WILL CLIMB ALL THE WAY INTO THE
UPPER 70S BOTH SATURDAY AND SUNDAY WHICH ISN`T QUITE RECORD
THREATENING...BUT ISN`T ALL THAT FAR AWAY. WEATHER IMPACTS THIS
WEEKEND SHOULD BE NEGLIGIBLE.

MEANWHILE DURING THE WEEKEND...THE WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH NOTED OVER
UTAH WILL DIVE SOUTHWARD AND CUT OFF/DEEPEN JUST WEST OF NORTHERN
BAJA CALIFORNIA...RESULTING IN A REX BLOCK PATTERN BY LATE SUNDAY
NIGHT. THIS HAS BEEN ADVERTISED TO VARIOUS DEGREES BY THE EC/GEM/GFS
OVER THE PAST FEW DAYS BUT TODAY`S 00Z MODELS ALL CAME INTO DECENT
AGREEMENT. ALL MODELS SHOW +2 TO +3 SIGMA PWATS ADVECTING NORTHWARD
INTO THE REGION BY MONDAY MORNING WITH SHOWERS DEVELOPING OVER THE
AREA MONDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING. THIS WAS ALSO CONFIRMED BY THIS
MORNING`S 00Z NAEFS AND THE 12Z OPERATIONAL SUITE OF GUIDANCE. GIVEN
THIS STRONG CONSENSUS...I ELECTED TO RAISE POPS INTO THE 60-70
PERCENT RANGE ACROSS THE AREA FROM 18Z MONDAY THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY.
AT THIS POINT THIS APPEARS TO BE ANOTHER HIGH PROB...LOW QPF EVENT
ALTHOUGH WITH PWATS APPROACHING 1 INCH IN SOME LOCATIONS...CANNOT
RULE OUT ISOLATED HIGHER AMOUNTS. WILL NEED TO PIN DOWN MORE PRECISE
QPF AS WE GET A BIT CLOSER TO THE EVENT.

THE LOW EXITS THE AREA RAPIDLY BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON...RESULTING IN
CLEARING SKIES ACROSS THE AREA. HOWEVER...BROAD SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW
WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH MOST OF THE UPCOMING WEEK AS
YET ANOTHER CLOSED CIRCULATION BREAKS FREE FROM THE WESTERLIES AND
STALLS OFF THE BAJA COAST. THIS WILL RESULT IN A PROLONGED PERIOD OF
SOMEWHAT ELEVATED DEWPOINTS AND ABUNDANT 500-300MB MOISTURE. PARTLY
SUNNY/MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES ARE EXPECTED FROM WEDNESDAY ONWARD WITH AN
INCREASED CHANCE OF SHOWERS AS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH APPROACHES
THURSDAY/FRIDAY. TIMING THE EXACT PERIOD WHERE INCREASED POPS ARE
WARRANTED VERY DIFFICULT THIS FAR IN ADVANCE

&&

.AVIATION...
SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA INCLUDING KPHX...KIWA AND KSDL...

BKN CIRRUS DECKS WILL PERSIST OVERNIGHT...THEN THIN AS THE DAY
PROGRESSES...AS A PASSING SHORT WAVE DROPS TO THE SOUTH AND THOUGH
THE CENTRAL DESERTS. OTHERWISE...TIGHTENING N-S SURFACE GRADIENT
WILL LEAD TO SOMEWHAT ELEVATED EAST TO NORTHEAST WINDS BY MID
MORNING ON SATURDAY...WITH A FEW GUSTS OVER 20 MPH POSSIBLE BY 18Z
AT THE TAF SITES. WINDS SHOULD FAVOR THE EAST MOST OF THE DAY ON
SATURDAY AND STRUGGLE TO RETURN TO THE WEST IN THE AFTERNOON HOURS.

ONE NOTE...SOME MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THE POSSIBILITY OF WEAK LLWS
OVER CENTRAL PHOENIX SATURDAY MORNING...DEVELOPING AFTER MIDNIGHT
AND ENDING BY MID MORNING AS NELY WINDS IN THE LOW LEVELS MIX TO THE
SURFACE. MAY SEE NELY WINDS 20-30K AROUND 2-3K FEET DEVELOP
OVERNIGHT WITH RATHER LIGHT SURFACE WINDS LEADING TO WEAK LLWS.
CONFIDENCE RATHER LOW ATTM AND SINCE SHEAR EVENT WOULD BE
BORDERLINE...WILL NOT MENTION IN THE AREA TAFS.

SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA AND SOUTHWEST ARIZONA INCLUDING KIPL AND KBLH...

NO SIGNIFICANT AVIATION IMPACTS NEXT 24 HOURS...ALTHOUGH A
TIGHTENING N-S SURFACE GRADIENT WILL LEAD TO ENHANCED NORTH WINDS
DOWN THE LOWER CO RIVER VALLEY DURING THE DAY SATURDAY. EXPECT WINDS
TO BECOME A BIT GUSTY AT KBLH BY 18Z SAT...WITH A FEW GUSTS IN
EXCESS OF 22KT AT TIMES THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. LESS WIND AT
KIPL...BUT FAVORING NORTH BY LATE MORNING. OTHERWISE BKN CIRRUS
CLOUD DECKS THINNING LATER TONIGHT AND BECOMING FEW-SCT DURING THE
DAY ON SATURDAY.

AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDED TAFS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL PERSIST THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD AS
SOUTHERLY FLOW TAKES HOLD ACROSS THE DESERT SOUTHWEST. A LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE OUT NORTHWARD OFF THE COAST OF BAJA AND
CALIFORNIA BRINGING CHANCES FOR RAIN ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY AND A
SIGNIFICANT INCREASE IN MOISTURE. MINIMUM HUMIDITIES IN THE TEENS ON
SUNDAY WILL INCREASE STARTING MONDAY AND ONLY DIP INTO THE 25 TO 35
PERCENT RANGE ACROSS THE LOWER DESERTS THROUGH THURSDAY. WITH THE
EXCEPTION OF SOME OCCASIONAL AFTERNOON BREEZINESS...WINDS WILL
REMAIN LIGHT THROUGH THE ENTIRE PERIOD.

&&

.PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

AZ...NONE.

CA...NONE.

&&

$$

VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/PHOENIX

DISCUSSION...CB
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...LEINS
AVIATION...CB
FIRE WEATHER...KUHLMAN









000
FXUS65 KPSR 240347
AFDPSR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PHOENIX AZ
845 PM MST FRI JAN 23 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH CLOUDS WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE REGION TODAY. STRONG HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN DURING THE WEEKEND...RESULTING IN SUNNY SKIES
ALONG WITH A WARMING TREND. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL AFFECT THE
AREA NEXT MONDAY...BRINGING AN INCREASE IN MOISTURE AND A CHANCE OF
SHOWERS. IN ITS WAKE...ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND HIGHER THAN
NORMAL HUMIDITIES WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
UPPER RIDGE CONTINUED TO AMPLIFY ALONG THE WEST COAST...AND AT THE
SAME TIME A WEAK SHORTWAVE WAS DROPPING TO THE SOUTH DOWN THE FRONT
SIDE OF THE RIDGE AND THRU SRN UTAH/AZ/SERN CA. IR IMAGERY SHOWED A
BAND OF VARIABLE HIGH CLOUDS OVER ARIZONA...ASSOCIATED WITH THE
PASSING SHORT WAVE...BUT OVERALL THE AIRMASS OVER AZ WAS DRY AND
STABLE WITH PWAT VALUES BELOW ONE QUARTER OF AN INCH. ALTHOUGH
SURFACE DEWPOINTS HAD CLIMBED A BIT OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS...THEY
WERE STILL ON THE LOW SIDE RANGING MOSTLY FROM THE MID TEENS TO THE
MID 20S OVER THE DESERTS. AS THE SHORT WAVE DROPS FURTHER TO THE
SOUTH TONIGHT...PROGS CONTINUE TO CALL FOR THE SWRN PORTION TO PINCH
OFF...AND FORM A CLOSED LOW OVER NRN/CENTRAL BAJA BY EARLY SATURDAY
MORNING. EVENTUALLY THIS CLOSED FEATURE WILL BRING MOISTURE
NORTHWARD AND INTO THE LOWER DESERTS...AND USHER IN A CHANCE FOR
SHOWERS...BUT NOT UNTIL AFTER THE WEEKEND HAS PASSED. FOR THE REST
OF TONIGHT EXPECT PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES...RELATIVELY LIGHT WINDS AND
COOL OVERNIGHT LOW TEMPERATURES. FORECASTS LOOK TO BE IN GOOD SHAPE
AND NO UPDATES ARE NEEDED ATTM.

.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
EARLY AFTERNOON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY CONTINUES TO REVEAL WEAK UPPER
LEVEL LOW PRESSURE OVER NORTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA...WITH A BAND OF
MID LEVEL MOISTURE STRETCHING NORTHEASTWARD INTO UTAH. AT THE
SURFACE THIS HAS RESULTED IN A BRIEF INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER ACROSS
THE AREA...NOTHING OF SIGNIFICANT CONSEQUENCE AS REGIONAL RADAR
IMAGERY REMAINS DRY. CLOUDS HAVE HAD A NEGLIGIBLE IMPACT ON
TEMPERATURES THUS FAR WITH 2040Z DESERT READINGS GENERALLY AROUND 60
DEGREES.

THE FORECAST THROUGH THE WEEKEND WILL BE ONE OF INCREASING HEIGHTS
ALOFT...MODEST BOUNDARY LAYER WARMING...AND MOSTLY SUNNY/PARTLY
CLOUD SKIES. AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES WILL CLIMB ALL THE WAY INTO THE
UPPER 70S BOTH SATURDAY AND SUNDAY WHICH ISN`T QUITE RECORD
THREATENING...BUT ISN`T ALL THAT FAR AWAY. WEATHER IMPACTS THIS
WEEKEND SHOULD BE NEGLIGIBLE.

MEANWHILE DURING THE WEEKEND...THE WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH NOTED OVER
UTAH WILL DIVE SOUTHWARD AND CUT OFF/DEEPEN JUST WEST OF NORTHERN
BAJA CALIFORNIA...RESULTING IN A REX BLOCK PATTERN BY LATE SUNDAY
NIGHT. THIS HAS BEEN ADVERTISED TO VARIOUS DEGREES BY THE EC/GEM/GFS
OVER THE PAST FEW DAYS BUT TODAY`S 00Z MODELS ALL CAME INTO DECENT
AGREEMENT. ALL MODELS SHOW +2 TO +3 SIGMA PWATS ADVECTING NORTHWARD
INTO THE REGION BY MONDAY MORNING WITH SHOWERS DEVELOPING OVER THE
AREA MONDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING. THIS WAS ALSO CONFIRMED BY THIS
MORNING`S 00Z NAEFS AND THE 12Z OPERATIONAL SUITE OF GUIDANCE. GIVEN
THIS STRONG CONSENSUS...I ELECTED TO RAISE POPS INTO THE 60-70
PERCENT RANGE ACROSS THE AREA FROM 18Z MONDAY THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY.
AT THIS POINT THIS APPEARS TO BE ANOTHER HIGH PROB...LOW QPF EVENT
ALTHOUGH WITH PWATS APPROACHING 1 INCH IN SOME LOCATIONS...CANNOT
RULE OUT ISOLATED HIGHER AMOUNTS. WILL NEED TO PIN DOWN MORE PRECISE
QPF AS WE GET A BIT CLOSER TO THE EVENT.

THE LOW EXITS THE AREA RAPIDLY BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON...RESULTING IN
CLEARING SKIES ACROSS THE AREA. HOWEVER...BROAD SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW
WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH MOST OF THE UPCOMING WEEK AS
YET ANOTHER CLOSED CIRCULATION BREAKS FREE FROM THE WESTERLIES AND
STALLS OFF THE BAJA COAST. THIS WILL RESULT IN A PROLONGED PERIOD OF
SOMEWHAT ELEVATED DEWPOINTS AND ABUNDANT 500-300MB MOISTURE. PARTLY
SUNNY/MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES ARE EXPECTED FROM WEDNESDAY ONWARD WITH AN
INCREASED CHANCE OF SHOWERS AS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH APPROACHES
THURSDAY/FRIDAY. TIMING THE EXACT PERIOD WHERE INCREASED POPS ARE
WARRANTED VERY DIFFICULT THIS FAR IN ADVANCE

&&

.AVIATION...
SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA INCLUDING KPHX...KIWA AND KSDL...

BKN CIRRUS DECKS WILL PERSIST OVERNIGHT...THEN THIN AS THE DAY
PROGRESSES...AS A PASSING SHORT WAVE DROPS TO THE SOUTH AND THOUGH
THE CENTRAL DESERTS. OTHERWISE...TIGHTENING N-S SURFACE GRADIENT
WILL LEAD TO SOMEWHAT ELEVATED EAST TO NORTHEAST WINDS BY MID
MORNING ON SATURDAY...WITH A FEW GUSTS OVER 20 MPH POSSIBLE BY 18Z
AT THE TAF SITES. WINDS SHOULD FAVOR THE EAST MOST OF THE DAY ON
SATURDAY AND STRUGGLE TO RETURN TO THE WEST IN THE AFTERNOON HOURS.

ONE NOTE...SOME MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THE POSSIBILITY OF WEAK LLWS
OVER CENTRAL PHOENIX SATURDAY MORNING...DEVELOPING AFTER MIDNIGHT
AND ENDING BY MID MORNING AS NELY WINDS IN THE LOW LEVELS MIX TO THE
SURFACE. MAY SEE NELY WINDS 20-30K AROUND 2-3K FEET DEVELOP
OVERNIGHT WITH RATHER LIGHT SURFACE WINDS LEADING TO WEAK LLWS.
CONFIDENCE RATHER LOW ATTM AND SINCE SHEAR EVENT WOULD BE
BORDERLINE...WILL NOT MENTION IN THE AREA TAFS.

SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA AND SOUTHWEST ARIZONA INCLUDING KIPL AND KBLH...

NO SIGNIFICANT AVIATION IMPACTS NEXT 24 HOURS...ALTHOUGH A
TIGHTENING N-S SURFACE GRADIENT WILL LEAD TO ENHANCED NORTH WINDS
DOWN THE LOWER CO RIVER VALLEY DURING THE DAY SATURDAY. EXPECT WINDS
TO BECOME A BIT GUSTY AT KBLH BY 18Z SAT...WITH A FEW GUSTS IN
EXCESS OF 22KT AT TIMES THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. LESS WIND AT
KIPL...BUT FAVORING NORTH BY LATE MORNING. OTHERWISE BKN CIRRUS
CLOUD DECKS THINNING LATER TONIGHT AND BECOMING FEW-SCT DURING THE
DAY ON SATURDAY.

AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDED TAFS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL PERSIST THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD AS
SOUTHERLY FLOW TAKES HOLD ACROSS THE DESERT SOUTHWEST. A LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE OUT NORTHWARD OFF THE COAST OF BAJA AND
CALIFORNIA BRINGING CHANCES FOR RAIN ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY AND A
SIGNIFICANT INCREASE IN MOISTURE. MINIMUM HUMIDITIES IN THE TEENS ON
SUNDAY WILL INCREASE STARTING MONDAY AND ONLY DIP INTO THE 25 TO 35
PERCENT RANGE ACROSS THE LOWER DESERTS THROUGH THURSDAY. WITH THE
EXCEPTION OF SOME OCCASIONAL AFTERNOON BREEZINESS...WINDS WILL
REMAIN LIGHT THROUGH THE ENTIRE PERIOD.

&&

.PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

AZ...NONE.

CA...NONE.

&&

$$

VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/PHOENIX

DISCUSSION...CB
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...LEINS
AVIATION...CB
FIRE WEATHER...KUHLMAN









000
FXUS65 KPSR 240347
AFDPSR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PHOENIX AZ
845 PM MST FRI JAN 23 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH CLOUDS WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE REGION TODAY. STRONG HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN DURING THE WEEKEND...RESULTING IN SUNNY SKIES
ALONG WITH A WARMING TREND. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL AFFECT THE
AREA NEXT MONDAY...BRINGING AN INCREASE IN MOISTURE AND A CHANCE OF
SHOWERS. IN ITS WAKE...ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND HIGHER THAN
NORMAL HUMIDITIES WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
UPPER RIDGE CONTINUED TO AMPLIFY ALONG THE WEST COAST...AND AT THE
SAME TIME A WEAK SHORTWAVE WAS DROPPING TO THE SOUTH DOWN THE FRONT
SIDE OF THE RIDGE AND THRU SRN UTAH/AZ/SERN CA. IR IMAGERY SHOWED A
BAND OF VARIABLE HIGH CLOUDS OVER ARIZONA...ASSOCIATED WITH THE
PASSING SHORT WAVE...BUT OVERALL THE AIRMASS OVER AZ WAS DRY AND
STABLE WITH PWAT VALUES BELOW ONE QUARTER OF AN INCH. ALTHOUGH
SURFACE DEWPOINTS HAD CLIMBED A BIT OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS...THEY
WERE STILL ON THE LOW SIDE RANGING MOSTLY FROM THE MID TEENS TO THE
MID 20S OVER THE DESERTS. AS THE SHORT WAVE DROPS FURTHER TO THE
SOUTH TONIGHT...PROGS CONTINUE TO CALL FOR THE SWRN PORTION TO PINCH
OFF...AND FORM A CLOSED LOW OVER NRN/CENTRAL BAJA BY EARLY SATURDAY
MORNING. EVENTUALLY THIS CLOSED FEATURE WILL BRING MOISTURE
NORTHWARD AND INTO THE LOWER DESERTS...AND USHER IN A CHANCE FOR
SHOWERS...BUT NOT UNTIL AFTER THE WEEKEND HAS PASSED. FOR THE REST
OF TONIGHT EXPECT PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES...RELATIVELY LIGHT WINDS AND
COOL OVERNIGHT LOW TEMPERATURES. FORECASTS LOOK TO BE IN GOOD SHAPE
AND NO UPDATES ARE NEEDED ATTM.

.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
EARLY AFTERNOON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY CONTINUES TO REVEAL WEAK UPPER
LEVEL LOW PRESSURE OVER NORTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA...WITH A BAND OF
MID LEVEL MOISTURE STRETCHING NORTHEASTWARD INTO UTAH. AT THE
SURFACE THIS HAS RESULTED IN A BRIEF INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER ACROSS
THE AREA...NOTHING OF SIGNIFICANT CONSEQUENCE AS REGIONAL RADAR
IMAGERY REMAINS DRY. CLOUDS HAVE HAD A NEGLIGIBLE IMPACT ON
TEMPERATURES THUS FAR WITH 2040Z DESERT READINGS GENERALLY AROUND 60
DEGREES.

THE FORECAST THROUGH THE WEEKEND WILL BE ONE OF INCREASING HEIGHTS
ALOFT...MODEST BOUNDARY LAYER WARMING...AND MOSTLY SUNNY/PARTLY
CLOUD SKIES. AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES WILL CLIMB ALL THE WAY INTO THE
UPPER 70S BOTH SATURDAY AND SUNDAY WHICH ISN`T QUITE RECORD
THREATENING...BUT ISN`T ALL THAT FAR AWAY. WEATHER IMPACTS THIS
WEEKEND SHOULD BE NEGLIGIBLE.

MEANWHILE DURING THE WEEKEND...THE WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH NOTED OVER
UTAH WILL DIVE SOUTHWARD AND CUT OFF/DEEPEN JUST WEST OF NORTHERN
BAJA CALIFORNIA...RESULTING IN A REX BLOCK PATTERN BY LATE SUNDAY
NIGHT. THIS HAS BEEN ADVERTISED TO VARIOUS DEGREES BY THE EC/GEM/GFS
OVER THE PAST FEW DAYS BUT TODAY`S 00Z MODELS ALL CAME INTO DECENT
AGREEMENT. ALL MODELS SHOW +2 TO +3 SIGMA PWATS ADVECTING NORTHWARD
INTO THE REGION BY MONDAY MORNING WITH SHOWERS DEVELOPING OVER THE
AREA MONDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING. THIS WAS ALSO CONFIRMED BY THIS
MORNING`S 00Z NAEFS AND THE 12Z OPERATIONAL SUITE OF GUIDANCE. GIVEN
THIS STRONG CONSENSUS...I ELECTED TO RAISE POPS INTO THE 60-70
PERCENT RANGE ACROSS THE AREA FROM 18Z MONDAY THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY.
AT THIS POINT THIS APPEARS TO BE ANOTHER HIGH PROB...LOW QPF EVENT
ALTHOUGH WITH PWATS APPROACHING 1 INCH IN SOME LOCATIONS...CANNOT
RULE OUT ISOLATED HIGHER AMOUNTS. WILL NEED TO PIN DOWN MORE PRECISE
QPF AS WE GET A BIT CLOSER TO THE EVENT.

THE LOW EXITS THE AREA RAPIDLY BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON...RESULTING IN
CLEARING SKIES ACROSS THE AREA. HOWEVER...BROAD SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW
WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH MOST OF THE UPCOMING WEEK AS
YET ANOTHER CLOSED CIRCULATION BREAKS FREE FROM THE WESTERLIES AND
STALLS OFF THE BAJA COAST. THIS WILL RESULT IN A PROLONGED PERIOD OF
SOMEWHAT ELEVATED DEWPOINTS AND ABUNDANT 500-300MB MOISTURE. PARTLY
SUNNY/MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES ARE EXPECTED FROM WEDNESDAY ONWARD WITH AN
INCREASED CHANCE OF SHOWERS AS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH APPROACHES
THURSDAY/FRIDAY. TIMING THE EXACT PERIOD WHERE INCREASED POPS ARE
WARRANTED VERY DIFFICULT THIS FAR IN ADVANCE

&&

.AVIATION...
SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA INCLUDING KPHX...KIWA AND KSDL...

BKN CIRRUS DECKS WILL PERSIST OVERNIGHT...THEN THIN AS THE DAY
PROGRESSES...AS A PASSING SHORT WAVE DROPS TO THE SOUTH AND THOUGH
THE CENTRAL DESERTS. OTHERWISE...TIGHTENING N-S SURFACE GRADIENT
WILL LEAD TO SOMEWHAT ELEVATED EAST TO NORTHEAST WINDS BY MID
MORNING ON SATURDAY...WITH A FEW GUSTS OVER 20 MPH POSSIBLE BY 18Z
AT THE TAF SITES. WINDS SHOULD FAVOR THE EAST MOST OF THE DAY ON
SATURDAY AND STRUGGLE TO RETURN TO THE WEST IN THE AFTERNOON HOURS.

ONE NOTE...SOME MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THE POSSIBILITY OF WEAK LLWS
OVER CENTRAL PHOENIX SATURDAY MORNING...DEVELOPING AFTER MIDNIGHT
AND ENDING BY MID MORNING AS NELY WINDS IN THE LOW LEVELS MIX TO THE
SURFACE. MAY SEE NELY WINDS 20-30K AROUND 2-3K FEET DEVELOP
OVERNIGHT WITH RATHER LIGHT SURFACE WINDS LEADING TO WEAK LLWS.
CONFIDENCE RATHER LOW ATTM AND SINCE SHEAR EVENT WOULD BE
BORDERLINE...WILL NOT MENTION IN THE AREA TAFS.

SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA AND SOUTHWEST ARIZONA INCLUDING KIPL AND KBLH...

NO SIGNIFICANT AVIATION IMPACTS NEXT 24 HOURS...ALTHOUGH A
TIGHTENING N-S SURFACE GRADIENT WILL LEAD TO ENHANCED NORTH WINDS
DOWN THE LOWER CO RIVER VALLEY DURING THE DAY SATURDAY. EXPECT WINDS
TO BECOME A BIT GUSTY AT KBLH BY 18Z SAT...WITH A FEW GUSTS IN
EXCESS OF 22KT AT TIMES THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. LESS WIND AT
KIPL...BUT FAVORING NORTH BY LATE MORNING. OTHERWISE BKN CIRRUS
CLOUD DECKS THINNING LATER TONIGHT AND BECOMING FEW-SCT DURING THE
DAY ON SATURDAY.

AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDED TAFS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL PERSIST THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD AS
SOUTHERLY FLOW TAKES HOLD ACROSS THE DESERT SOUTHWEST. A LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE OUT NORTHWARD OFF THE COAST OF BAJA AND
CALIFORNIA BRINGING CHANCES FOR RAIN ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY AND A
SIGNIFICANT INCREASE IN MOISTURE. MINIMUM HUMIDITIES IN THE TEENS ON
SUNDAY WILL INCREASE STARTING MONDAY AND ONLY DIP INTO THE 25 TO 35
PERCENT RANGE ACROSS THE LOWER DESERTS THROUGH THURSDAY. WITH THE
EXCEPTION OF SOME OCCASIONAL AFTERNOON BREEZINESS...WINDS WILL
REMAIN LIGHT THROUGH THE ENTIRE PERIOD.

&&

.PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

AZ...NONE.

CA...NONE.

&&

$$

VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/PHOENIX

DISCUSSION...CB
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...LEINS
AVIATION...CB
FIRE WEATHER...KUHLMAN









000
FXUS65 KTWC 240341
AFDTWC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ
845 PM MST FRI JAN 23 2015

.SYNOPSIS...GUSTY EAST WINDS SATURDAY WITH WARMER AFTERNOON HIGHS
THROUGH THE WEEKEND. A DISTURBANCE JUST WEST OF THE BAJA PENINSULA
WILL GUIDE MOISTURE NORTH AND BRING SHOWERS TO SOUTHERN ARIZONA
MONDAY INTO EARLY TUESDAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...A WEAK IMPULSE IS HELPING TO ACCENTUATE THE CIRRUS
LEVEL MOISTURE OVER SOUTHERN ARIZONA ON THE FAR NORTHERN FRINGE OF A
SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE BAND JUST SOUTH OF THE AREA. LOWER LEVELS STILL
ON THE DRY SIDE WITH .22 INCH PRECIPITABLE WATER ON THE 00Z KTWC
SOUNDING AND SURFACE DEW POINTS IN THE TEENS AND 20S.

THIS IMPULSE IS STILL EXPECTED TO SPIN UP A BIT AND DEEPEN JUST WEST
OF BAJA AND GUIDE MOISTURE INTO SOUTHERN ARIZONA BY MONDAY. IT
RE-ENGAGES WITH HIGHER LATITUDE SUPPORT AS THIS HAPPENS AND LIFTS
THROUGH SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA AND ARIZONA LATE MONDAY INTO TUESDAY.
CURRENT FORECAST HAS VERY GOOD TRENDS WITH SHOWERS LIKELY AREA-WIDE
BY LATE MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT. PLEASE SEE THE PREVIOUS DISCUSSION
FOR ADDITIONAL DETAILS.

&&

.AVIATION...VALID THRU 25/06Z.
HIGH PRESSURE AND VFR CONDITIONS WILL BE THE RULE THROUGH THE
WEEKEND. HIGH CLOUDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS
AS AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS TO THE SOUTHWEST OVER THE
PACIFIC. WET WEATHER AND PERHAPS WORSENING CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE
FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK. AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR TAF
AMENDMENTS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...GUSTY EAST TO SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL BE PRESENT FOR
MUCH OF THE AREA OVER THE NEXT DAY OR SO. WINDS WILL BE STRONGEST IN
AREAS WHERE TERRAIN FOCUSES WINDS FROM AN EASTERLY COMPONENT. IT
WILL REMAIN DRY THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

MOISTURE AND THE POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE EARLY
NEXT WEEK AS LOW PRESSURE OFF THE BAJA COAST LIFTS NORTH. THE BEST
CHANCE FOR SHOWERS WILL OCCUR MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...UNSETTLED AND WET WEATHER LIES AHEAD IN THE NEXT
SEVEN DAYS. INITIALLY...WARMING AND DRY CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST INTO
THE WEEKEND. A FEW HIGH CLOUDS WILL BE PRESENT...BUT THEY SHOULD
HAVE LITTLE IMPACT ON SURFACE TEMPERATURES. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL
RISE TO NEAR AVERAGE ON SATURDAY...THEN HOVER AT OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE
AVERAGE FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK.

A SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL DIG SOUTH TOWARD ARIZONA AS A LARGE WAVE
HIGHLY AMPLIFIED UPPER RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE WESTERN UNITED STATES.
BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON...THE SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL DEEPEN INTO A CUT
OFF LOW JUST WEST OF THE BAJA PENINSULA. THE LOW WILL CHURN FOR A
DAY OR SO BEFORE EJECTING NORTH TOWARD SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA.

AS THE LOW MOVES NORTH SUNDAY INTO MONDAY...MOIST AIR WILL MOVE INTO
SOUTHERN ARIZONA. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES...DEPENDING ON THE
MODEL...SHOULD INCREASE INTO THE 0.80 TO 1.10 INCH RANGE. VALUES
THIS HIGH ARE FAIRLY ANOMALOUS FOR LATE JANUARY AND ONLY OCCUR ONCE
IN ABOUT FIVE YEARS. NOW WILL THAT TRANSLATE TO WIDESPREAD HEAVY
RAIN...THAT DEPENDS ON THE FORCING. CURRENTLY...THE MODELS ARE
SHOWING LIMITED SURFACE FORCING...BUT THERE IS SOME DIFFLUENCE ALOFT
SINCE ARIZONA WILL SIT IN THE NORTHWEST QUADRANT OF THE UPPER LOW.

BASED ON PRIOR ANALOG EVENTS FROM THE GOOD FOLKS AT CIPS...THERE IS
SOME CONCERN PRECIPITATION VALUES COULD RAMP UP TO AROUND ONE HALF
INCH WITH LOCALIZED VALUES CLOSER TO ONE INCH. THIS SEEMS A BIT HIGH
BASED ON CURRENT MODEL DATA...SO I HAVE TRENDED CLOSER TO A HIGH
POTENTIAL BUT A GENERALLY LOW PRECIPITATION EVENT. AS SUCH...THE
CHANCE OF PRECIP FORECAST HAS INCREASED ON MONDAY EVENING INTO
TUESDAY MORNING. THE GFS...SREF AND NAM ARE HINTING THAT MONDAY WILL
EXPERIENCE THE MOST PRECIP...SO WE CAN FINE TUNE THE DETAILS OVER
THE NEXT FEW SHIFTS.

THE OTHER ISSUE WITH THIS EVENT IS THE SNOW LEVELS...OR RATHER...THE
NON ISSUE. SNOW LEVELS SHOULD BE AROUND 9000 FEET OR HIGHER SO WE
ARE EXPECTING MINIMAL IMPACTS FROM SNOW.

A BRIEF TRANSITION PHASE ENSUES ON WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY AND
THEN YET ANOTHER REX BLOCK SCENARIO SHOULD DEVELOP LATE NEXT WEEK.
THIS MEANS PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL AGAIN INCREASE SOMETIME NEXT
WEEKEND. THIS HAPPENS TO COINCIDE WITH A FAIRLY WELL ATTENDED
SPORTING EVENT IN THE PHOENIX AREA THAT MAY ATTRACT FANS FROM THE
TUCSON AREA. THUS...WE WILL NEED TO KEEP A CLOSE EYE ON THE EXTENDED
FORECAST AS TRAVEL CONDITIONS MAY DETERIORATE IF WE EXPERIENCE
MODERATE OR HEAVY RAIN. ONCE AGAIN THOUGH...SNOW LEVELS WILL BE
HIGH.

JJB

&&

.TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...YOUTUBE...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/TUCSON

MEYER





000
FXUS65 KTWC 240341
AFDTWC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ
845 PM MST FRI JAN 23 2015

.SYNOPSIS...GUSTY EAST WINDS SATURDAY WITH WARMER AFTERNOON HIGHS
THROUGH THE WEEKEND. A DISTURBANCE JUST WEST OF THE BAJA PENINSULA
WILL GUIDE MOISTURE NORTH AND BRING SHOWERS TO SOUTHERN ARIZONA
MONDAY INTO EARLY TUESDAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...A WEAK IMPULSE IS HELPING TO ACCENTUATE THE CIRRUS
LEVEL MOISTURE OVER SOUTHERN ARIZONA ON THE FAR NORTHERN FRINGE OF A
SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE BAND JUST SOUTH OF THE AREA. LOWER LEVELS STILL
ON THE DRY SIDE WITH .22 INCH PRECIPITABLE WATER ON THE 00Z KTWC
SOUNDING AND SURFACE DEW POINTS IN THE TEENS AND 20S.

THIS IMPULSE IS STILL EXPECTED TO SPIN UP A BIT AND DEEPEN JUST WEST
OF BAJA AND GUIDE MOISTURE INTO SOUTHERN ARIZONA BY MONDAY. IT
RE-ENGAGES WITH HIGHER LATITUDE SUPPORT AS THIS HAPPENS AND LIFTS
THROUGH SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA AND ARIZONA LATE MONDAY INTO TUESDAY.
CURRENT FORECAST HAS VERY GOOD TRENDS WITH SHOWERS LIKELY AREA-WIDE
BY LATE MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT. PLEASE SEE THE PREVIOUS DISCUSSION
FOR ADDITIONAL DETAILS.

&&

.AVIATION...VALID THRU 25/06Z.
HIGH PRESSURE AND VFR CONDITIONS WILL BE THE RULE THROUGH THE
WEEKEND. HIGH CLOUDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS
AS AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS TO THE SOUTHWEST OVER THE
PACIFIC. WET WEATHER AND PERHAPS WORSENING CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE
FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK. AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR TAF
AMENDMENTS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...GUSTY EAST TO SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL BE PRESENT FOR
MUCH OF THE AREA OVER THE NEXT DAY OR SO. WINDS WILL BE STRONGEST IN
AREAS WHERE TERRAIN FOCUSES WINDS FROM AN EASTERLY COMPONENT. IT
WILL REMAIN DRY THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

MOISTURE AND THE POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE EARLY
NEXT WEEK AS LOW PRESSURE OFF THE BAJA COAST LIFTS NORTH. THE BEST
CHANCE FOR SHOWERS WILL OCCUR MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...UNSETTLED AND WET WEATHER LIES AHEAD IN THE NEXT
SEVEN DAYS. INITIALLY...WARMING AND DRY CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST INTO
THE WEEKEND. A FEW HIGH CLOUDS WILL BE PRESENT...BUT THEY SHOULD
HAVE LITTLE IMPACT ON SURFACE TEMPERATURES. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL
RISE TO NEAR AVERAGE ON SATURDAY...THEN HOVER AT OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE
AVERAGE FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK.

A SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL DIG SOUTH TOWARD ARIZONA AS A LARGE WAVE
HIGHLY AMPLIFIED UPPER RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE WESTERN UNITED STATES.
BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON...THE SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL DEEPEN INTO A CUT
OFF LOW JUST WEST OF THE BAJA PENINSULA. THE LOW WILL CHURN FOR A
DAY OR SO BEFORE EJECTING NORTH TOWARD SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA.

AS THE LOW MOVES NORTH SUNDAY INTO MONDAY...MOIST AIR WILL MOVE INTO
SOUTHERN ARIZONA. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES...DEPENDING ON THE
MODEL...SHOULD INCREASE INTO THE 0.80 TO 1.10 INCH RANGE. VALUES
THIS HIGH ARE FAIRLY ANOMALOUS FOR LATE JANUARY AND ONLY OCCUR ONCE
IN ABOUT FIVE YEARS. NOW WILL THAT TRANSLATE TO WIDESPREAD HEAVY
RAIN...THAT DEPENDS ON THE FORCING. CURRENTLY...THE MODELS ARE
SHOWING LIMITED SURFACE FORCING...BUT THERE IS SOME DIFFLUENCE ALOFT
SINCE ARIZONA WILL SIT IN THE NORTHWEST QUADRANT OF THE UPPER LOW.

BASED ON PRIOR ANALOG EVENTS FROM THE GOOD FOLKS AT CIPS...THERE IS
SOME CONCERN PRECIPITATION VALUES COULD RAMP UP TO AROUND ONE HALF
INCH WITH LOCALIZED VALUES CLOSER TO ONE INCH. THIS SEEMS A BIT HIGH
BASED ON CURRENT MODEL DATA...SO I HAVE TRENDED CLOSER TO A HIGH
POTENTIAL BUT A GENERALLY LOW PRECIPITATION EVENT. AS SUCH...THE
CHANCE OF PRECIP FORECAST HAS INCREASED ON MONDAY EVENING INTO
TUESDAY MORNING. THE GFS...SREF AND NAM ARE HINTING THAT MONDAY WILL
EXPERIENCE THE MOST PRECIP...SO WE CAN FINE TUNE THE DETAILS OVER
THE NEXT FEW SHIFTS.

THE OTHER ISSUE WITH THIS EVENT IS THE SNOW LEVELS...OR RATHER...THE
NON ISSUE. SNOW LEVELS SHOULD BE AROUND 9000 FEET OR HIGHER SO WE
ARE EXPECTING MINIMAL IMPACTS FROM SNOW.

A BRIEF TRANSITION PHASE ENSUES ON WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY AND
THEN YET ANOTHER REX BLOCK SCENARIO SHOULD DEVELOP LATE NEXT WEEK.
THIS MEANS PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL AGAIN INCREASE SOMETIME NEXT
WEEKEND. THIS HAPPENS TO COINCIDE WITH A FAIRLY WELL ATTENDED
SPORTING EVENT IN THE PHOENIX AREA THAT MAY ATTRACT FANS FROM THE
TUCSON AREA. THUS...WE WILL NEED TO KEEP A CLOSE EYE ON THE EXTENDED
FORECAST AS TRAVEL CONDITIONS MAY DETERIORATE IF WE EXPERIENCE
MODERATE OR HEAVY RAIN. ONCE AGAIN THOUGH...SNOW LEVELS WILL BE
HIGH.

JJB

&&

.TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...YOUTUBE...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/TUCSON

MEYER





000
FXUS65 KTWC 240341
AFDTWC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ
845 PM MST FRI JAN 23 2015

.SYNOPSIS...GUSTY EAST WINDS SATURDAY WITH WARMER AFTERNOON HIGHS
THROUGH THE WEEKEND. A DISTURBANCE JUST WEST OF THE BAJA PENINSULA
WILL GUIDE MOISTURE NORTH AND BRING SHOWERS TO SOUTHERN ARIZONA
MONDAY INTO EARLY TUESDAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...A WEAK IMPULSE IS HELPING TO ACCENTUATE THE CIRRUS
LEVEL MOISTURE OVER SOUTHERN ARIZONA ON THE FAR NORTHERN FRINGE OF A
SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE BAND JUST SOUTH OF THE AREA. LOWER LEVELS STILL
ON THE DRY SIDE WITH .22 INCH PRECIPITABLE WATER ON THE 00Z KTWC
SOUNDING AND SURFACE DEW POINTS IN THE TEENS AND 20S.

THIS IMPULSE IS STILL EXPECTED TO SPIN UP A BIT AND DEEPEN JUST WEST
OF BAJA AND GUIDE MOISTURE INTO SOUTHERN ARIZONA BY MONDAY. IT
RE-ENGAGES WITH HIGHER LATITUDE SUPPORT AS THIS HAPPENS AND LIFTS
THROUGH SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA AND ARIZONA LATE MONDAY INTO TUESDAY.
CURRENT FORECAST HAS VERY GOOD TRENDS WITH SHOWERS LIKELY AREA-WIDE
BY LATE MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT. PLEASE SEE THE PREVIOUS DISCUSSION
FOR ADDITIONAL DETAILS.

&&

.AVIATION...VALID THRU 25/06Z.
HIGH PRESSURE AND VFR CONDITIONS WILL BE THE RULE THROUGH THE
WEEKEND. HIGH CLOUDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS
AS AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS TO THE SOUTHWEST OVER THE
PACIFIC. WET WEATHER AND PERHAPS WORSENING CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE
FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK. AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR TAF
AMENDMENTS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...GUSTY EAST TO SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL BE PRESENT FOR
MUCH OF THE AREA OVER THE NEXT DAY OR SO. WINDS WILL BE STRONGEST IN
AREAS WHERE TERRAIN FOCUSES WINDS FROM AN EASTERLY COMPONENT. IT
WILL REMAIN DRY THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

MOISTURE AND THE POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE EARLY
NEXT WEEK AS LOW PRESSURE OFF THE BAJA COAST LIFTS NORTH. THE BEST
CHANCE FOR SHOWERS WILL OCCUR MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...UNSETTLED AND WET WEATHER LIES AHEAD IN THE NEXT
SEVEN DAYS. INITIALLY...WARMING AND DRY CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST INTO
THE WEEKEND. A FEW HIGH CLOUDS WILL BE PRESENT...BUT THEY SHOULD
HAVE LITTLE IMPACT ON SURFACE TEMPERATURES. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL
RISE TO NEAR AVERAGE ON SATURDAY...THEN HOVER AT OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE
AVERAGE FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK.

A SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL DIG SOUTH TOWARD ARIZONA AS A LARGE WAVE
HIGHLY AMPLIFIED UPPER RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE WESTERN UNITED STATES.
BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON...THE SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL DEEPEN INTO A CUT
OFF LOW JUST WEST OF THE BAJA PENINSULA. THE LOW WILL CHURN FOR A
DAY OR SO BEFORE EJECTING NORTH TOWARD SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA.

AS THE LOW MOVES NORTH SUNDAY INTO MONDAY...MOIST AIR WILL MOVE INTO
SOUTHERN ARIZONA. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES...DEPENDING ON THE
MODEL...SHOULD INCREASE INTO THE 0.80 TO 1.10 INCH RANGE. VALUES
THIS HIGH ARE FAIRLY ANOMALOUS FOR LATE JANUARY AND ONLY OCCUR ONCE
IN ABOUT FIVE YEARS. NOW WILL THAT TRANSLATE TO WIDESPREAD HEAVY
RAIN...THAT DEPENDS ON THE FORCING. CURRENTLY...THE MODELS ARE
SHOWING LIMITED SURFACE FORCING...BUT THERE IS SOME DIFFLUENCE ALOFT
SINCE ARIZONA WILL SIT IN THE NORTHWEST QUADRANT OF THE UPPER LOW.

BASED ON PRIOR ANALOG EVENTS FROM THE GOOD FOLKS AT CIPS...THERE IS
SOME CONCERN PRECIPITATION VALUES COULD RAMP UP TO AROUND ONE HALF
INCH WITH LOCALIZED VALUES CLOSER TO ONE INCH. THIS SEEMS A BIT HIGH
BASED ON CURRENT MODEL DATA...SO I HAVE TRENDED CLOSER TO A HIGH
POTENTIAL BUT A GENERALLY LOW PRECIPITATION EVENT. AS SUCH...THE
CHANCE OF PRECIP FORECAST HAS INCREASED ON MONDAY EVENING INTO
TUESDAY MORNING. THE GFS...SREF AND NAM ARE HINTING THAT MONDAY WILL
EXPERIENCE THE MOST PRECIP...SO WE CAN FINE TUNE THE DETAILS OVER
THE NEXT FEW SHIFTS.

THE OTHER ISSUE WITH THIS EVENT IS THE SNOW LEVELS...OR RATHER...THE
NON ISSUE. SNOW LEVELS SHOULD BE AROUND 9000 FEET OR HIGHER SO WE
ARE EXPECTING MINIMAL IMPACTS FROM SNOW.

A BRIEF TRANSITION PHASE ENSUES ON WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY AND
THEN YET ANOTHER REX BLOCK SCENARIO SHOULD DEVELOP LATE NEXT WEEK.
THIS MEANS PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL AGAIN INCREASE SOMETIME NEXT
WEEKEND. THIS HAPPENS TO COINCIDE WITH A FAIRLY WELL ATTENDED
SPORTING EVENT IN THE PHOENIX AREA THAT MAY ATTRACT FANS FROM THE
TUCSON AREA. THUS...WE WILL NEED TO KEEP A CLOSE EYE ON THE EXTENDED
FORECAST AS TRAVEL CONDITIONS MAY DETERIORATE IF WE EXPERIENCE
MODERATE OR HEAVY RAIN. ONCE AGAIN THOUGH...SNOW LEVELS WILL BE
HIGH.

JJB

&&

.TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...YOUTUBE...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/TUCSON

MEYER





000
FXUS65 KTWC 240341
AFDTWC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ
845 PM MST FRI JAN 23 2015

.SYNOPSIS...GUSTY EAST WINDS SATURDAY WITH WARMER AFTERNOON HIGHS
THROUGH THE WEEKEND. A DISTURBANCE JUST WEST OF THE BAJA PENINSULA
WILL GUIDE MOISTURE NORTH AND BRING SHOWERS TO SOUTHERN ARIZONA
MONDAY INTO EARLY TUESDAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...A WEAK IMPULSE IS HELPING TO ACCENTUATE THE CIRRUS
LEVEL MOISTURE OVER SOUTHERN ARIZONA ON THE FAR NORTHERN FRINGE OF A
SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE BAND JUST SOUTH OF THE AREA. LOWER LEVELS STILL
ON THE DRY SIDE WITH .22 INCH PRECIPITABLE WATER ON THE 00Z KTWC
SOUNDING AND SURFACE DEW POINTS IN THE TEENS AND 20S.

THIS IMPULSE IS STILL EXPECTED TO SPIN UP A BIT AND DEEPEN JUST WEST
OF BAJA AND GUIDE MOISTURE INTO SOUTHERN ARIZONA BY MONDAY. IT
RE-ENGAGES WITH HIGHER LATITUDE SUPPORT AS THIS HAPPENS AND LIFTS
THROUGH SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA AND ARIZONA LATE MONDAY INTO TUESDAY.
CURRENT FORECAST HAS VERY GOOD TRENDS WITH SHOWERS LIKELY AREA-WIDE
BY LATE MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT. PLEASE SEE THE PREVIOUS DISCUSSION
FOR ADDITIONAL DETAILS.

&&

.AVIATION...VALID THRU 25/06Z.
HIGH PRESSURE AND VFR CONDITIONS WILL BE THE RULE THROUGH THE
WEEKEND. HIGH CLOUDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS
AS AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS TO THE SOUTHWEST OVER THE
PACIFIC. WET WEATHER AND PERHAPS WORSENING CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE
FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK. AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR TAF
AMENDMENTS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...GUSTY EAST TO SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL BE PRESENT FOR
MUCH OF THE AREA OVER THE NEXT DAY OR SO. WINDS WILL BE STRONGEST IN
AREAS WHERE TERRAIN FOCUSES WINDS FROM AN EASTERLY COMPONENT. IT
WILL REMAIN DRY THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

MOISTURE AND THE POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE EARLY
NEXT WEEK AS LOW PRESSURE OFF THE BAJA COAST LIFTS NORTH. THE BEST
CHANCE FOR SHOWERS WILL OCCUR MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...UNSETTLED AND WET WEATHER LIES AHEAD IN THE NEXT
SEVEN DAYS. INITIALLY...WARMING AND DRY CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST INTO
THE WEEKEND. A FEW HIGH CLOUDS WILL BE PRESENT...BUT THEY SHOULD
HAVE LITTLE IMPACT ON SURFACE TEMPERATURES. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL
RISE TO NEAR AVERAGE ON SATURDAY...THEN HOVER AT OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE
AVERAGE FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK.

A SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL DIG SOUTH TOWARD ARIZONA AS A LARGE WAVE
HIGHLY AMPLIFIED UPPER RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE WESTERN UNITED STATES.
BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON...THE SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL DEEPEN INTO A CUT
OFF LOW JUST WEST OF THE BAJA PENINSULA. THE LOW WILL CHURN FOR A
DAY OR SO BEFORE EJECTING NORTH TOWARD SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA.

AS THE LOW MOVES NORTH SUNDAY INTO MONDAY...MOIST AIR WILL MOVE INTO
SOUTHERN ARIZONA. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES...DEPENDING ON THE
MODEL...SHOULD INCREASE INTO THE 0.80 TO 1.10 INCH RANGE. VALUES
THIS HIGH ARE FAIRLY ANOMALOUS FOR LATE JANUARY AND ONLY OCCUR ONCE
IN ABOUT FIVE YEARS. NOW WILL THAT TRANSLATE TO WIDESPREAD HEAVY
RAIN...THAT DEPENDS ON THE FORCING. CURRENTLY...THE MODELS ARE
SHOWING LIMITED SURFACE FORCING...BUT THERE IS SOME DIFFLUENCE ALOFT
SINCE ARIZONA WILL SIT IN THE NORTHWEST QUADRANT OF THE UPPER LOW.

BASED ON PRIOR ANALOG EVENTS FROM THE GOOD FOLKS AT CIPS...THERE IS
SOME CONCERN PRECIPITATION VALUES COULD RAMP UP TO AROUND ONE HALF
INCH WITH LOCALIZED VALUES CLOSER TO ONE INCH. THIS SEEMS A BIT HIGH
BASED ON CURRENT MODEL DATA...SO I HAVE TRENDED CLOSER TO A HIGH
POTENTIAL BUT A GENERALLY LOW PRECIPITATION EVENT. AS SUCH...THE
CHANCE OF PRECIP FORECAST HAS INCREASED ON MONDAY EVENING INTO
TUESDAY MORNING. THE GFS...SREF AND NAM ARE HINTING THAT MONDAY WILL
EXPERIENCE THE MOST PRECIP...SO WE CAN FINE TUNE THE DETAILS OVER
THE NEXT FEW SHIFTS.

THE OTHER ISSUE WITH THIS EVENT IS THE SNOW LEVELS...OR RATHER...THE
NON ISSUE. SNOW LEVELS SHOULD BE AROUND 9000 FEET OR HIGHER SO WE
ARE EXPECTING MINIMAL IMPACTS FROM SNOW.

A BRIEF TRANSITION PHASE ENSUES ON WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY AND
THEN YET ANOTHER REX BLOCK SCENARIO SHOULD DEVELOP LATE NEXT WEEK.
THIS MEANS PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL AGAIN INCREASE SOMETIME NEXT
WEEKEND. THIS HAPPENS TO COINCIDE WITH A FAIRLY WELL ATTENDED
SPORTING EVENT IN THE PHOENIX AREA THAT MAY ATTRACT FANS FROM THE
TUCSON AREA. THUS...WE WILL NEED TO KEEP A CLOSE EYE ON THE EXTENDED
FORECAST AS TRAVEL CONDITIONS MAY DETERIORATE IF WE EXPERIENCE
MODERATE OR HEAVY RAIN. ONCE AGAIN THOUGH...SNOW LEVELS WILL BE
HIGH.

JJB

&&

.TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...YOUTUBE...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/TUCSON

MEYER





000
FXUS65 KTWC 240341
AFDTWC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ
845 PM MST FRI JAN 23 2015

.SYNOPSIS...GUSTY EAST WINDS SATURDAY WITH WARMER AFTERNOON HIGHS
THROUGH THE WEEKEND. A DISTURBANCE JUST WEST OF THE BAJA PENINSULA
WILL GUIDE MOISTURE NORTH AND BRING SHOWERS TO SOUTHERN ARIZONA
MONDAY INTO EARLY TUESDAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...A WEAK IMPULSE IS HELPING TO ACCENTUATE THE CIRRUS
LEVEL MOISTURE OVER SOUTHERN ARIZONA ON THE FAR NORTHERN FRINGE OF A
SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE BAND JUST SOUTH OF THE AREA. LOWER LEVELS STILL
ON THE DRY SIDE WITH .22 INCH PRECIPITABLE WATER ON THE 00Z KTWC
SOUNDING AND SURFACE DEW POINTS IN THE TEENS AND 20S.

THIS IMPULSE IS STILL EXPECTED TO SPIN UP A BIT AND DEEPEN JUST WEST
OF BAJA AND GUIDE MOISTURE INTO SOUTHERN ARIZONA BY MONDAY. IT
RE-ENGAGES WITH HIGHER LATITUDE SUPPORT AS THIS HAPPENS AND LIFTS
THROUGH SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA AND ARIZONA LATE MONDAY INTO TUESDAY.
CURRENT FORECAST HAS VERY GOOD TRENDS WITH SHOWERS LIKELY AREA-WIDE
BY LATE MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT. PLEASE SEE THE PREVIOUS DISCUSSION
FOR ADDITIONAL DETAILS.

&&

.AVIATION...VALID THRU 25/06Z.
HIGH PRESSURE AND VFR CONDITIONS WILL BE THE RULE THROUGH THE
WEEKEND. HIGH CLOUDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS
AS AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS TO THE SOUTHWEST OVER THE
PACIFIC. WET WEATHER AND PERHAPS WORSENING CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE
FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK. AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR TAF
AMENDMENTS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...GUSTY EAST TO SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL BE PRESENT FOR
MUCH OF THE AREA OVER THE NEXT DAY OR SO. WINDS WILL BE STRONGEST IN
AREAS WHERE TERRAIN FOCUSES WINDS FROM AN EASTERLY COMPONENT. IT
WILL REMAIN DRY THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

MOISTURE AND THE POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE EARLY
NEXT WEEK AS LOW PRESSURE OFF THE BAJA COAST LIFTS NORTH. THE BEST
CHANCE FOR SHOWERS WILL OCCUR MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...UNSETTLED AND WET WEATHER LIES AHEAD IN THE NEXT
SEVEN DAYS. INITIALLY...WARMING AND DRY CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST INTO
THE WEEKEND. A FEW HIGH CLOUDS WILL BE PRESENT...BUT THEY SHOULD
HAVE LITTLE IMPACT ON SURFACE TEMPERATURES. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL
RISE TO NEAR AVERAGE ON SATURDAY...THEN HOVER AT OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE
AVERAGE FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK.

A SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL DIG SOUTH TOWARD ARIZONA AS A LARGE WAVE
HIGHLY AMPLIFIED UPPER RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE WESTERN UNITED STATES.
BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON...THE SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL DEEPEN INTO A CUT
OFF LOW JUST WEST OF THE BAJA PENINSULA. THE LOW WILL CHURN FOR A
DAY OR SO BEFORE EJECTING NORTH TOWARD SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA.

AS THE LOW MOVES NORTH SUNDAY INTO MONDAY...MOIST AIR WILL MOVE INTO
SOUTHERN ARIZONA. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES...DEPENDING ON THE
MODEL...SHOULD INCREASE INTO THE 0.80 TO 1.10 INCH RANGE. VALUES
THIS HIGH ARE FAIRLY ANOMALOUS FOR LATE JANUARY AND ONLY OCCUR ONCE
IN ABOUT FIVE YEARS. NOW WILL THAT TRANSLATE TO WIDESPREAD HEAVY
RAIN...THAT DEPENDS ON THE FORCING. CURRENTLY...THE MODELS ARE
SHOWING LIMITED SURFACE FORCING...BUT THERE IS SOME DIFFLUENCE ALOFT
SINCE ARIZONA WILL SIT IN THE NORTHWEST QUADRANT OF THE UPPER LOW.

BASED ON PRIOR ANALOG EVENTS FROM THE GOOD FOLKS AT CIPS...THERE IS
SOME CONCERN PRECIPITATION VALUES COULD RAMP UP TO AROUND ONE HALF
INCH WITH LOCALIZED VALUES CLOSER TO ONE INCH. THIS SEEMS A BIT HIGH
BASED ON CURRENT MODEL DATA...SO I HAVE TRENDED CLOSER TO A HIGH
POTENTIAL BUT A GENERALLY LOW PRECIPITATION EVENT. AS SUCH...THE
CHANCE OF PRECIP FORECAST HAS INCREASED ON MONDAY EVENING INTO
TUESDAY MORNING. THE GFS...SREF AND NAM ARE HINTING THAT MONDAY WILL
EXPERIENCE THE MOST PRECIP...SO WE CAN FINE TUNE THE DETAILS OVER
THE NEXT FEW SHIFTS.

THE OTHER ISSUE WITH THIS EVENT IS THE SNOW LEVELS...OR RATHER...THE
NON ISSUE. SNOW LEVELS SHOULD BE AROUND 9000 FEET OR HIGHER SO WE
ARE EXPECTING MINIMAL IMPACTS FROM SNOW.

A BRIEF TRANSITION PHASE ENSUES ON WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY AND
THEN YET ANOTHER REX BLOCK SCENARIO SHOULD DEVELOP LATE NEXT WEEK.
THIS MEANS PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL AGAIN INCREASE SOMETIME NEXT
WEEKEND. THIS HAPPENS TO COINCIDE WITH A FAIRLY WELL ATTENDED
SPORTING EVENT IN THE PHOENIX AREA THAT MAY ATTRACT FANS FROM THE
TUCSON AREA. THUS...WE WILL NEED TO KEEP A CLOSE EYE ON THE EXTENDED
FORECAST AS TRAVEL CONDITIONS MAY DETERIORATE IF WE EXPERIENCE
MODERATE OR HEAVY RAIN. ONCE AGAIN THOUGH...SNOW LEVELS WILL BE
HIGH.

JJB

&&

.TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...YOUTUBE...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/TUCSON

MEYER





000
FXUS65 KFGZ 240327
AFDFGZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ
827 PM MST FRI JAN 23 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
EXPECT DRY AND WARM WEATHER ACROSS NORTHERN ARIZONA THIS WEEKEND.
STARTING MONDAY...A MOIST AND SUB-TROPICAL AIRMASS WILL MOVE
INTO ARIZONA...RESULTING IN A GOOD CHANCE OF MAINLY RAIN SHOWERS
ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
AREAS OF DENSE UPPER-LEVEL CLOUD COVER ARE SHIFTING SOUTHWARD
ACROSS NORTHERN ARIZONA THIS EVENING WITH CLEARING SKIES TO THE
NORTH. LITTLE OF SIGNIFICANCE FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE EVENING
FORECAST...AND THE CURRENT GRIDS/FORECAST LOOK TO BE IN GOOD
SHAPE WITH NO MAJOR UPDATES ANTICIPATED BEFORE TOMORROW MORNING.

&&

.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION /310 PM MST/...
DESPITE A RIDGE BUILDING TO OUR NORTH AND WEST OVER THE NEXT
SEVERAL DAYS...LOWER LEVEL NORTHEAST FLOW WILL KEEP AREAS ALONG
AND NORTHEAST OF THE RIM RELATIVELY COOL. AREAS SOUTH OF THE RIM
WILL BECOME QUITE WARM...NORTHEAST FLOW IS DOWNSLOPE FOR THESE
LOCATIONS. SKY COVER WILL REMAIN MINIMAL WITH VERY DRY SURFACE
CONDITIONS.

FLOW TURNS SOUTHERLY BY EARLY NEXT WEEK AND A SURGE OF SUB-
TROPICAL MOISTURE IS LOOKING LIKELY. MODELS ARE IN FAIRLY CLOSE
AGREEMENT AT THIS TIME THAT THE WEAK UPPER LOW SEEN NEAR 31N/115W
WILL MERGE WITH ANOTHER LOW NEAR 20N/127W AND WILL THEN
CONSOLIDATE INTO A DEEPENING CLOSED LOW UNDER THE AMPLIFYING
WEST COAST RIDGE. THIS LOW WILL THEN TAP INTO A LARGE AREA OF
GREATER THAN ONE INCH PW AND A PLUME OF 50 TO 60 DEGREE
DEWPOINTS...THAT WILL MOVE NORTH BY MONDAY MORNING. AS THE LOW
SLOWLY EJECTS IN RESPONSE TO MORE UPSTREAM ENERGY...THIS MOIST
AIRMASS WILL MOVE THROUGH MOST OF ARIZONA INTO TUESDAY.

THIS IS A VERY WARM AIRMASS FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR AND SNOW LEVELS
WILL REMAIN HIGH. ONLY THE HIGHEST PEAKS WILL SEE ANY SNOW. THE
MOST LIKELY TIME FOR RAINFALL APPEARS TO BE LATE MONDAY THROUGH
EARLY TUESDAY AFTERNOON. QPF AMOUNTS WILL BE LIGHT TO LOCALLY
MODERATE.

SUBSIDENCE BEHIND THIS LOW ON WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...ALONG WITH
THE CONTINUED PRESENCE OF THE WEST COAST RIDGE...WILL ALLOW FOR
A SHARP DECREASE IN SHOWER ACTIVITY. LONGER WAVE MODELS SUGGEST
THIS PATTERN MAY REPEAT ITSELF BY NEXT FRIDAY AND INTO NEXT
WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION...
FOR THE 06Z PACKAGE...EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS
UNDER VARIABLE HIGH CLOUDS. SURFACE WINDS GENERALLY N-NE 5-15KT
ALONG AND SOUTHWEST OF THE MOGOLLON RIM...AND LIGHT AND VARIABLE
ELSEWHERE. AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR TAF AMENDMENTS.

&&

.FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC.........KD/PETERSON
AVIATION.......KD

FOR NORTHERN ARIZONA WEATHER INFORMATION VISIT
WEATHER.GOV/FLAGSTAFF








000
FXUS65 KFGZ 240327
AFDFGZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ
827 PM MST FRI JAN 23 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
EXPECT DRY AND WARM WEATHER ACROSS NORTHERN ARIZONA THIS WEEKEND.
STARTING MONDAY...A MOIST AND SUB-TROPICAL AIRMASS WILL MOVE
INTO ARIZONA...RESULTING IN A GOOD CHANCE OF MAINLY RAIN SHOWERS
ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
AREAS OF DENSE UPPER-LEVEL CLOUD COVER ARE SHIFTING SOUTHWARD
ACROSS NORTHERN ARIZONA THIS EVENING WITH CLEARING SKIES TO THE
NORTH. LITTLE OF SIGNIFICANCE FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE EVENING
FORECAST...AND THE CURRENT GRIDS/FORECAST LOOK TO BE IN GOOD
SHAPE WITH NO MAJOR UPDATES ANTICIPATED BEFORE TOMORROW MORNING.

&&

.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION /310 PM MST/...
DESPITE A RIDGE BUILDING TO OUR NORTH AND WEST OVER THE NEXT
SEVERAL DAYS...LOWER LEVEL NORTHEAST FLOW WILL KEEP AREAS ALONG
AND NORTHEAST OF THE RIM RELATIVELY COOL. AREAS SOUTH OF THE RIM
WILL BECOME QUITE WARM...NORTHEAST FLOW IS DOWNSLOPE FOR THESE
LOCATIONS. SKY COVER WILL REMAIN MINIMAL WITH VERY DRY SURFACE
CONDITIONS.

FLOW TURNS SOUTHERLY BY EARLY NEXT WEEK AND A SURGE OF SUB-
TROPICAL MOISTURE IS LOOKING LIKELY. MODELS ARE IN FAIRLY CLOSE
AGREEMENT AT THIS TIME THAT THE WEAK UPPER LOW SEEN NEAR 31N/115W
WILL MERGE WITH ANOTHER LOW NEAR 20N/127W AND WILL THEN
CONSOLIDATE INTO A DEEPENING CLOSED LOW UNDER THE AMPLIFYING
WEST COAST RIDGE. THIS LOW WILL THEN TAP INTO A LARGE AREA OF
GREATER THAN ONE INCH PW AND A PLUME OF 50 TO 60 DEGREE
DEWPOINTS...THAT WILL MOVE NORTH BY MONDAY MORNING. AS THE LOW
SLOWLY EJECTS IN RESPONSE TO MORE UPSTREAM ENERGY...THIS MOIST
AIRMASS WILL MOVE THROUGH MOST OF ARIZONA INTO TUESDAY.

THIS IS A VERY WARM AIRMASS FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR AND SNOW LEVELS
WILL REMAIN HIGH. ONLY THE HIGHEST PEAKS WILL SEE ANY SNOW. THE
MOST LIKELY TIME FOR RAINFALL APPEARS TO BE LATE MONDAY THROUGH
EARLY TUESDAY AFTERNOON. QPF AMOUNTS WILL BE LIGHT TO LOCALLY
MODERATE.

SUBSIDENCE BEHIND THIS LOW ON WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...ALONG WITH
THE CONTINUED PRESENCE OF THE WEST COAST RIDGE...WILL ALLOW FOR
A SHARP DECREASE IN SHOWER ACTIVITY. LONGER WAVE MODELS SUGGEST
THIS PATTERN MAY REPEAT ITSELF BY NEXT FRIDAY AND INTO NEXT
WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION...
FOR THE 06Z PACKAGE...EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS
UNDER VARIABLE HIGH CLOUDS. SURFACE WINDS GENERALLY N-NE 5-15KT
ALONG AND SOUTHWEST OF THE MOGOLLON RIM...AND LIGHT AND VARIABLE
ELSEWHERE. AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR TAF AMENDMENTS.

&&

.FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC.........KD/PETERSON
AVIATION.......KD

FOR NORTHERN ARIZONA WEATHER INFORMATION VISIT
WEATHER.GOV/FLAGSTAFF








000
FXUS65 KFGZ 240327
AFDFGZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ
827 PM MST FRI JAN 23 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
EXPECT DRY AND WARM WEATHER ACROSS NORTHERN ARIZONA THIS WEEKEND.
STARTING MONDAY...A MOIST AND SUB-TROPICAL AIRMASS WILL MOVE
INTO ARIZONA...RESULTING IN A GOOD CHANCE OF MAINLY RAIN SHOWERS
ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
AREAS OF DENSE UPPER-LEVEL CLOUD COVER ARE SHIFTING SOUTHWARD
ACROSS NORTHERN ARIZONA THIS EVENING WITH CLEARING SKIES TO THE
NORTH. LITTLE OF SIGNIFICANCE FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE EVENING
FORECAST...AND THE CURRENT GRIDS/FORECAST LOOK TO BE IN GOOD
SHAPE WITH NO MAJOR UPDATES ANTICIPATED BEFORE TOMORROW MORNING.

&&

.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION /310 PM MST/...
DESPITE A RIDGE BUILDING TO OUR NORTH AND WEST OVER THE NEXT
SEVERAL DAYS...LOWER LEVEL NORTHEAST FLOW WILL KEEP AREAS ALONG
AND NORTHEAST OF THE RIM RELATIVELY COOL. AREAS SOUTH OF THE RIM
WILL BECOME QUITE WARM...NORTHEAST FLOW IS DOWNSLOPE FOR THESE
LOCATIONS. SKY COVER WILL REMAIN MINIMAL WITH VERY DRY SURFACE
CONDITIONS.

FLOW TURNS SOUTHERLY BY EARLY NEXT WEEK AND A SURGE OF SUB-
TROPICAL MOISTURE IS LOOKING LIKELY. MODELS ARE IN FAIRLY CLOSE
AGREEMENT AT THIS TIME THAT THE WEAK UPPER LOW SEEN NEAR 31N/115W
WILL MERGE WITH ANOTHER LOW NEAR 20N/127W AND WILL THEN
CONSOLIDATE INTO A DEEPENING CLOSED LOW UNDER THE AMPLIFYING
WEST COAST RIDGE. THIS LOW WILL THEN TAP INTO A LARGE AREA OF
GREATER THAN ONE INCH PW AND A PLUME OF 50 TO 60 DEGREE
DEWPOINTS...THAT WILL MOVE NORTH BY MONDAY MORNING. AS THE LOW
SLOWLY EJECTS IN RESPONSE TO MORE UPSTREAM ENERGY...THIS MOIST
AIRMASS WILL MOVE THROUGH MOST OF ARIZONA INTO TUESDAY.

THIS IS A VERY WARM AIRMASS FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR AND SNOW LEVELS
WILL REMAIN HIGH. ONLY THE HIGHEST PEAKS WILL SEE ANY SNOW. THE
MOST LIKELY TIME FOR RAINFALL APPEARS TO BE LATE MONDAY THROUGH
EARLY TUESDAY AFTERNOON. QPF AMOUNTS WILL BE LIGHT TO LOCALLY
MODERATE.

SUBSIDENCE BEHIND THIS LOW ON WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...ALONG WITH
THE CONTINUED PRESENCE OF THE WEST COAST RIDGE...WILL ALLOW FOR
A SHARP DECREASE IN SHOWER ACTIVITY. LONGER WAVE MODELS SUGGEST
THIS PATTERN MAY REPEAT ITSELF BY NEXT FRIDAY AND INTO NEXT
WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION...
FOR THE 06Z PACKAGE...EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS
UNDER VARIABLE HIGH CLOUDS. SURFACE WINDS GENERALLY N-NE 5-15KT
ALONG AND SOUTHWEST OF THE MOGOLLON RIM...AND LIGHT AND VARIABLE
ELSEWHERE. AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR TAF AMENDMENTS.

&&

.FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC.........KD/PETERSON
AVIATION.......KD

FOR NORTHERN ARIZONA WEATHER INFORMATION VISIT
WEATHER.GOV/FLAGSTAFF








000
FXUS65 KFGZ 240327
AFDFGZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ
827 PM MST FRI JAN 23 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
EXPECT DRY AND WARM WEATHER ACROSS NORTHERN ARIZONA THIS WEEKEND.
STARTING MONDAY...A MOIST AND SUB-TROPICAL AIRMASS WILL MOVE
INTO ARIZONA...RESULTING IN A GOOD CHANCE OF MAINLY RAIN SHOWERS
ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
AREAS OF DENSE UPPER-LEVEL CLOUD COVER ARE SHIFTING SOUTHWARD
ACROSS NORTHERN ARIZONA THIS EVENING WITH CLEARING SKIES TO THE
NORTH. LITTLE OF SIGNIFICANCE FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE EVENING
FORECAST...AND THE CURRENT GRIDS/FORECAST LOOK TO BE IN GOOD
SHAPE WITH NO MAJOR UPDATES ANTICIPATED BEFORE TOMORROW MORNING.

&&

.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION /310 PM MST/...
DESPITE A RIDGE BUILDING TO OUR NORTH AND WEST OVER THE NEXT
SEVERAL DAYS...LOWER LEVEL NORTHEAST FLOW WILL KEEP AREAS ALONG
AND NORTHEAST OF THE RIM RELATIVELY COOL. AREAS SOUTH OF THE RIM
WILL BECOME QUITE WARM...NORTHEAST FLOW IS DOWNSLOPE FOR THESE
LOCATIONS. SKY COVER WILL REMAIN MINIMAL WITH VERY DRY SURFACE
CONDITIONS.

FLOW TURNS SOUTHERLY BY EARLY NEXT WEEK AND A SURGE OF SUB-
TROPICAL MOISTURE IS LOOKING LIKELY. MODELS ARE IN FAIRLY CLOSE
AGREEMENT AT THIS TIME THAT THE WEAK UPPER LOW SEEN NEAR 31N/115W
WILL MERGE WITH ANOTHER LOW NEAR 20N/127W AND WILL THEN
CONSOLIDATE INTO A DEEPENING CLOSED LOW UNDER THE AMPLIFYING
WEST COAST RIDGE. THIS LOW WILL THEN TAP INTO A LARGE AREA OF
GREATER THAN ONE INCH PW AND A PLUME OF 50 TO 60 DEGREE
DEWPOINTS...THAT WILL MOVE NORTH BY MONDAY MORNING. AS THE LOW
SLOWLY EJECTS IN RESPONSE TO MORE UPSTREAM ENERGY...THIS MOIST
AIRMASS WILL MOVE THROUGH MOST OF ARIZONA INTO TUESDAY.

THIS IS A VERY WARM AIRMASS FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR AND SNOW LEVELS
WILL REMAIN HIGH. ONLY THE HIGHEST PEAKS WILL SEE ANY SNOW. THE
MOST LIKELY TIME FOR RAINFALL APPEARS TO BE LATE MONDAY THROUGH
EARLY TUESDAY AFTERNOON. QPF AMOUNTS WILL BE LIGHT TO LOCALLY
MODERATE.

SUBSIDENCE BEHIND THIS LOW ON WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...ALONG WITH
THE CONTINUED PRESENCE OF THE WEST COAST RIDGE...WILL ALLOW FOR
A SHARP DECREASE IN SHOWER ACTIVITY. LONGER WAVE MODELS SUGGEST
THIS PATTERN MAY REPEAT ITSELF BY NEXT FRIDAY AND INTO NEXT
WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION...
FOR THE 06Z PACKAGE...EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS
UNDER VARIABLE HIGH CLOUDS. SURFACE WINDS GENERALLY N-NE 5-15KT
ALONG AND SOUTHWEST OF THE MOGOLLON RIM...AND LIGHT AND VARIABLE
ELSEWHERE. AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR TAF AMENDMENTS.

&&

.FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC.........KD/PETERSON
AVIATION.......KD

FOR NORTHERN ARIZONA WEATHER INFORMATION VISIT
WEATHER.GOV/FLAGSTAFF








000
FXUS65 KFGZ 232211
AFDFGZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ
310 PM MST FRI JAN 23 2015

.SYNOPSIS...DRY AND WARMER WEATHER IS EXPECTED INTO THE WEEKEND.
STARTING MONDAY...A MOIST AND SUB-TROPICAL AIRMASS WILL MOVE INTO
ARIZONA. THIS WILL RESULT IN A GOOD CHANCE OF MAINLY RAIN SHOWERS
MONDAY AND TUESDAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...DESPITE A RIDGE BUILDING TO OUR NORTH AND WEST OVER
THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS...LOWER LEVEL NORTHEAST FLOW WILL KEEP AREAS
ALONG AND NORTHEAST OF THE RIM RELATIVELY COOL. AREAS SOUTH OF THE
RIM WILL BECOME QUITE WARM...NORTHEAST FLOW IS DOWNSLOPE FOR THESE
LOCATIONS. SKY COVER WILL REMAIN MINIMAL WITH VERY DRY SURFACE
CONDITIONS.

FLOW TURNS SOUTHERLY BY EARLY NEXT WEEK AND A SURGE OF SUB-TROPICAL
MOISTURE IS LOOKING LIKELY. MODELS ARE IN FAIRLY CLOSE AGREEMENT AT
THIS TIME THAT THE WEAK UPPER LOW SEEN NEAR 31N/115W WILL MERGE WITH
ANOTHER LOW NEAR 20N/127W AND WILL THEN CONSOLIDATE INTO A DEEPENING
CLOSED LOW UNDER THE AMPLIFYING WEST COAST RIDGE. THIS LOW WILL THEN
TAP INTO A LARGE AREA OF GREATER THAN ONE INCH PW AND A PLUME OF 50
TO 60 DEGREE DEWPOINTS...THAT WILL MOVE NORTH BY MONDAY MORNING. AS
THE LOW SLOWLY EJECTS IN RESPONSE TO MORE UPSTREAM ENERGY...THIS
MOIST AIRMASS WILL MOVE THROUGH MOST OF ARIZONA INTO TUESDAY.

THIS IS A VERY WARM AIRMASS FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR AND SNOW LEVELS
WILL REMAIN HIGH. ONLY THE HIGHEST PEAKS WILL SEE ANY SNOW. THE MOST
LIKELY TIME FOR RAINFALL APPEARS TO BE LATE MONDAY THROUGH EARLY
TUESDAY AFTERNOON. QPF AMOUNTS WILL BE LIGHT TO LOCALLY MODERATE.

SUBSIDENCE BEHIND THIS LOW ON WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...ALONG WITH
THE CONTINUED PRESENCE OF THE WEST COAST RIDGE...WILL ALLOW FOR A
SHARP DECREASE IN SHOWER ACTIVITY. LONGER WAVE MODELS SUGGEST THIS
PATTERN MAY REPEAT ITSELF BY NEXT FRIDAY AND INTO NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 00Z PACKAGE...EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS FOR THE NEXT
24 HOURS UNDER VARIABLE HIGH CLOUDS. SFC WINDS GENERALLY N-NE 5-15KT
ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE MOGOLLON RIM...AND LIGHT TO THE NORTH.
AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR TAF AMENDMENTS.

&&

.FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC.........PETERSON
AVIATION.......MAS

FOR NORTHERN ARIZONA WEATHER INFORMATION VISIT
WEATHER.GOV/FLAGSTAFF







000
FXUS65 KFGZ 232211
AFDFGZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ
310 PM MST FRI JAN 23 2015

.SYNOPSIS...DRY AND WARMER WEATHER IS EXPECTED INTO THE WEEKEND.
STARTING MONDAY...A MOIST AND SUB-TROPICAL AIRMASS WILL MOVE INTO
ARIZONA. THIS WILL RESULT IN A GOOD CHANCE OF MAINLY RAIN SHOWERS
MONDAY AND TUESDAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...DESPITE A RIDGE BUILDING TO OUR NORTH AND WEST OVER
THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS...LOWER LEVEL NORTHEAST FLOW WILL KEEP AREAS
ALONG AND NORTHEAST OF THE RIM RELATIVELY COOL. AREAS SOUTH OF THE
RIM WILL BECOME QUITE WARM...NORTHEAST FLOW IS DOWNSLOPE FOR THESE
LOCATIONS. SKY COVER WILL REMAIN MINIMAL WITH VERY DRY SURFACE
CONDITIONS.

FLOW TURNS SOUTHERLY BY EARLY NEXT WEEK AND A SURGE OF SUB-TROPICAL
MOISTURE IS LOOKING LIKELY. MODELS ARE IN FAIRLY CLOSE AGREEMENT AT
THIS TIME THAT THE WEAK UPPER LOW SEEN NEAR 31N/115W WILL MERGE WITH
ANOTHER LOW NEAR 20N/127W AND WILL THEN CONSOLIDATE INTO A DEEPENING
CLOSED LOW UNDER THE AMPLIFYING WEST COAST RIDGE. THIS LOW WILL THEN
TAP INTO A LARGE AREA OF GREATER THAN ONE INCH PW AND A PLUME OF 50
TO 60 DEGREE DEWPOINTS...THAT WILL MOVE NORTH BY MONDAY MORNING. AS
THE LOW SLOWLY EJECTS IN RESPONSE TO MORE UPSTREAM ENERGY...THIS
MOIST AIRMASS WILL MOVE THROUGH MOST OF ARIZONA INTO TUESDAY.

THIS IS A VERY WARM AIRMASS FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR AND SNOW LEVELS
WILL REMAIN HIGH. ONLY THE HIGHEST PEAKS WILL SEE ANY SNOW. THE MOST
LIKELY TIME FOR RAINFALL APPEARS TO BE LATE MONDAY THROUGH EARLY
TUESDAY AFTERNOON. QPF AMOUNTS WILL BE LIGHT TO LOCALLY MODERATE.

SUBSIDENCE BEHIND THIS LOW ON WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...ALONG WITH
THE CONTINUED PRESENCE OF THE WEST COAST RIDGE...WILL ALLOW FOR A
SHARP DECREASE IN SHOWER ACTIVITY. LONGER WAVE MODELS SUGGEST THIS
PATTERN MAY REPEAT ITSELF BY NEXT FRIDAY AND INTO NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 00Z PACKAGE...EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS FOR THE NEXT
24 HOURS UNDER VARIABLE HIGH CLOUDS. SFC WINDS GENERALLY N-NE 5-15KT
ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE MOGOLLON RIM...AND LIGHT TO THE NORTH.
AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR TAF AMENDMENTS.

&&

.FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC.........PETERSON
AVIATION.......MAS

FOR NORTHERN ARIZONA WEATHER INFORMATION VISIT
WEATHER.GOV/FLAGSTAFF







000
FXUS65 KFGZ 232211
AFDFGZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ
310 PM MST FRI JAN 23 2015

.SYNOPSIS...DRY AND WARMER WEATHER IS EXPECTED INTO THE WEEKEND.
STARTING MONDAY...A MOIST AND SUB-TROPICAL AIRMASS WILL MOVE INTO
ARIZONA. THIS WILL RESULT IN A GOOD CHANCE OF MAINLY RAIN SHOWERS
MONDAY AND TUESDAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...DESPITE A RIDGE BUILDING TO OUR NORTH AND WEST OVER
THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS...LOWER LEVEL NORTHEAST FLOW WILL KEEP AREAS
ALONG AND NORTHEAST OF THE RIM RELATIVELY COOL. AREAS SOUTH OF THE
RIM WILL BECOME QUITE WARM...NORTHEAST FLOW IS DOWNSLOPE FOR THESE
LOCATIONS. SKY COVER WILL REMAIN MINIMAL WITH VERY DRY SURFACE
CONDITIONS.

FLOW TURNS SOUTHERLY BY EARLY NEXT WEEK AND A SURGE OF SUB-TROPICAL
MOISTURE IS LOOKING LIKELY. MODELS ARE IN FAIRLY CLOSE AGREEMENT AT
THIS TIME THAT THE WEAK UPPER LOW SEEN NEAR 31N/115W WILL MERGE WITH
ANOTHER LOW NEAR 20N/127W AND WILL THEN CONSOLIDATE INTO A DEEPENING
CLOSED LOW UNDER THE AMPLIFYING WEST COAST RIDGE. THIS LOW WILL THEN
TAP INTO A LARGE AREA OF GREATER THAN ONE INCH PW AND A PLUME OF 50
TO 60 DEGREE DEWPOINTS...THAT WILL MOVE NORTH BY MONDAY MORNING. AS
THE LOW SLOWLY EJECTS IN RESPONSE TO MORE UPSTREAM ENERGY...THIS
MOIST AIRMASS WILL MOVE THROUGH MOST OF ARIZONA INTO TUESDAY.

THIS IS A VERY WARM AIRMASS FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR AND SNOW LEVELS
WILL REMAIN HIGH. ONLY THE HIGHEST PEAKS WILL SEE ANY SNOW. THE MOST
LIKELY TIME FOR RAINFALL APPEARS TO BE LATE MONDAY THROUGH EARLY
TUESDAY AFTERNOON. QPF AMOUNTS WILL BE LIGHT TO LOCALLY MODERATE.

SUBSIDENCE BEHIND THIS LOW ON WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...ALONG WITH
THE CONTINUED PRESENCE OF THE WEST COAST RIDGE...WILL ALLOW FOR A
SHARP DECREASE IN SHOWER ACTIVITY. LONGER WAVE MODELS SUGGEST THIS
PATTERN MAY REPEAT ITSELF BY NEXT FRIDAY AND INTO NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 00Z PACKAGE...EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS FOR THE NEXT
24 HOURS UNDER VARIABLE HIGH CLOUDS. SFC WINDS GENERALLY N-NE 5-15KT
ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE MOGOLLON RIM...AND LIGHT TO THE NORTH.
AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR TAF AMENDMENTS.

&&

.FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC.........PETERSON
AVIATION.......MAS

FOR NORTHERN ARIZONA WEATHER INFORMATION VISIT
WEATHER.GOV/FLAGSTAFF







000
FXUS65 KFGZ 232211
AFDFGZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ
310 PM MST FRI JAN 23 2015

.SYNOPSIS...DRY AND WARMER WEATHER IS EXPECTED INTO THE WEEKEND.
STARTING MONDAY...A MOIST AND SUB-TROPICAL AIRMASS WILL MOVE INTO
ARIZONA. THIS WILL RESULT IN A GOOD CHANCE OF MAINLY RAIN SHOWERS
MONDAY AND TUESDAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...DESPITE A RIDGE BUILDING TO OUR NORTH AND WEST OVER
THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS...LOWER LEVEL NORTHEAST FLOW WILL KEEP AREAS
ALONG AND NORTHEAST OF THE RIM RELATIVELY COOL. AREAS SOUTH OF THE
RIM WILL BECOME QUITE WARM...NORTHEAST FLOW IS DOWNSLOPE FOR THESE
LOCATIONS. SKY COVER WILL REMAIN MINIMAL WITH VERY DRY SURFACE
CONDITIONS.

FLOW TURNS SOUTHERLY BY EARLY NEXT WEEK AND A SURGE OF SUB-TROPICAL
MOISTURE IS LOOKING LIKELY. MODELS ARE IN FAIRLY CLOSE AGREEMENT AT
THIS TIME THAT THE WEAK UPPER LOW SEEN NEAR 31N/115W WILL MERGE WITH
ANOTHER LOW NEAR 20N/127W AND WILL THEN CONSOLIDATE INTO A DEEPENING
CLOSED LOW UNDER THE AMPLIFYING WEST COAST RIDGE. THIS LOW WILL THEN
TAP INTO A LARGE AREA OF GREATER THAN ONE INCH PW AND A PLUME OF 50
TO 60 DEGREE DEWPOINTS...THAT WILL MOVE NORTH BY MONDAY MORNING. AS
THE LOW SLOWLY EJECTS IN RESPONSE TO MORE UPSTREAM ENERGY...THIS
MOIST AIRMASS WILL MOVE THROUGH MOST OF ARIZONA INTO TUESDAY.

THIS IS A VERY WARM AIRMASS FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR AND SNOW LEVELS
WILL REMAIN HIGH. ONLY THE HIGHEST PEAKS WILL SEE ANY SNOW. THE MOST
LIKELY TIME FOR RAINFALL APPEARS TO BE LATE MONDAY THROUGH EARLY
TUESDAY AFTERNOON. QPF AMOUNTS WILL BE LIGHT TO LOCALLY MODERATE.

SUBSIDENCE BEHIND THIS LOW ON WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...ALONG WITH
THE CONTINUED PRESENCE OF THE WEST COAST RIDGE...WILL ALLOW FOR A
SHARP DECREASE IN SHOWER ACTIVITY. LONGER WAVE MODELS SUGGEST THIS
PATTERN MAY REPEAT ITSELF BY NEXT FRIDAY AND INTO NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 00Z PACKAGE...EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS FOR THE NEXT
24 HOURS UNDER VARIABLE HIGH CLOUDS. SFC WINDS GENERALLY N-NE 5-15KT
ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE MOGOLLON RIM...AND LIGHT TO THE NORTH.
AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR TAF AMENDMENTS.

&&

.FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC.........PETERSON
AVIATION.......MAS

FOR NORTHERN ARIZONA WEATHER INFORMATION VISIT
WEATHER.GOV/FLAGSTAFF







000
FXUS65 KTWC 232136
AFDTWC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ
236 PM MST FRI JAN 23 2015

.SYNOPSIS...GUSTY EAST WINDS WILL EASE LATER TODAY. WARMER HIGH
TEMPERATURES TODAY WITH WARMUP TO CONTINUE THIS WEEKEND. A LOW WEST
OF BAJA WILL PUSH MOISTURE NORTH AND BRINGS A THREAT OF SHOWERS TO
SOUTHERN ARIZONA MONDAY INTO EARLY TUESDAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...UNSETTLED AND WET WEATHER LIES AHEAD IN THE NEXT SEVEN
DAYS. INITIALLY...WARMING AND DRY CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST INTO THE
WEEKEND. A FEW HIGH CLOUDS WILL BE PRESENT...BUT THEY SHOULD HAVE
LITTLE IMPACT ON SURFACE TEMPERATURES. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL RISE
TO NEAR AVERAGE ON SATURDAY...THEN HOVER AT OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE
AVERAGE FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK.

A SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL DIG SOUTH TOWARD ARIZONA AS A LARGE WAVE
HIGHLY AMPLIFIED UPPER RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE WESTERN UNITED STATES.
BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON...THE SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL DEEPEN INTO A CUT
OFF LOW JUST WEST OF THE BAJA PENINSULA. THE LOW WILL CHURN FOR A
DAY OR SO BEFORE EJECTING NORTH TOWARD SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA.

AS THE LOW MOVES NORTH SUNDAY INTO MONDAY...MOIST AIR WILL MOVE INTO
SOUTHERN ARIZONA. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES...DEPENDING ON THE
MODEL...SHOULD INCREASE INTO THE 0.80 TO 1.10 INCH RANGE. VALUES
THIS HIGH ARE FAIRLY ANOMALOUS FOR LATE JANUARY AND ONLY OCCUR ONCE
IN ABOUT FIVE YEARS. NOW WILL THAT TRANSLATE TO WIDESPREAD HEAVY
RAIN...THAT DEPENDS ON THE FORCING. CURRENTLY...THE MODELS ARE
SHOWING LIMITED SURFACE FORCING...BUT THERE IS SOME DIFFLUENCE ALOFT
SINCE ARIZONA WILL SIT IN THE NORTHWEST QUADRANT OF THE UPPER LOW.

BASED ON PRIOR ANALOG EVENTS FROM THE GOOD FOLKS AT CIPS...THERE IS
SOME CONCERN PRECIPITATION VALUES COULD RAMP UP TO AROUND ONE HALF
INCH WITH LOCALIZED VALUES CLOSER TO ONE INCH. THIS SEEMS A BIT HIGH
BASED ON CURRENT MODEL DATA...SO I HAVE TRENDED CLOSER TO A HIGH
POTENTIAL BUT A GENERALLY LOW PRECIPITATION EVENT. AS SUCH...THE
CHANCE OF PRECIP FORECAST HAS INCREASED ON MONDAY EVENING INTO
TUESDAY MORNING. THE GFS...SREF AND NAM ARE HINTING THAT MONDAY WILL
EXPERIENCE THE MOST PRECIP...SO WE CAN FINE TUNE THE DETAILS OVER
THE NEXT FEW SHIFTS.

THE OTHER ISSUE WITH THIS EVENT IS THE SNOW LEVELS...OR RATHER...THE
NON ISSUE. SNOW LEVELS SHOULD BE AROUND 9000 FEET OR HIGHER SO WE
ARE EXPECTING MINIMAL IMPACTS FROM SNOW.

A BRIEF TRANSITION PHASE ENSUES ON WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY AND
THEN YET ANOTHER REX BLOCK SCENARIO SHOULD DEVELOP LATE NEXT WEEK.
THIS MEANS PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL AGAIN INCREASE SOMETIME NEXT
WEEKEND. THIS HAPPENS TO COINCIDE WITH A FAIRLY WELL ATTENDED
SPORTING EVENT IN THE PHOENIX AREA THAT MAY ATTRACT FANS FROM THE
TUCSON AREA. THUS...WE WILL NEED TO KEEP A CLOSE EYE ON THE EXTENDED
FORECAST AS TRAVEL CONDITIONS MAY DETERIORATE IF WE EXPERIENCE
MODERATE OR HEAVY RAIN. ONCE AGAIN THOUGH...SNOW LEVELS WILL BE
HIGH.

JJB

&&

.AVIATION...VALID THRU 25/00Z.
HIGH PRESSURE AND VFR CONDITIONS WILL BE THE RULE THROUGH THE NEXT
COUPLE OF DAYS. HIGH CLOUDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE OVER THE NEXT 24
HOURS AS AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS TO THE SOUTHWEST OVER THE
PACIFIC. WET WEATHER AND PERHAPS WORSENING CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE
FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK. AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR TAF
AMENDMENTS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...GUSTY EAST TO SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL BE PRESENT FOR
MUCH OF THE AREA OVER THE NEXT DAY OR SO. WINDS WILL BE STRONGEST IN
AREAS WHERE TERRAIN FOCUSES WINDS FROM AN EASTERLY COMPONENT. IT
WILL REMAIN DRY THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

MOISTURE AND THE POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE EARLY
NEXT WEEK AS LOW PRESSURE OFF THE BAJA COAST LIFTS NORTH. THE BEST
CHANCE FOR SHOWERS WILL OCCUR MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT.

&&

.TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...YOUTUBE...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/TUCSON













000
FXUS65 KPSR 232042
AFDPSR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PHOENIX AZ
142 PM MST FRI JAN 23 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH CLOUDS WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE REGION TODAY. STRONG HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN DURING THE WEEKEND...RESULTING IN SUNNY SKIES
ALONG WITH A WARMING TREND. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL AFFECT THE
AREA NEXT MONDAY...BRINGING AN INCREASE IN MOISTURE AND A CHANCE OF
SHOWERS. IN ITS WAKE...ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND HIGHER THAN
NORMAL HUMIDITIES WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
EARLY AFTERNOON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY CONTINUES TO REVEAL WEAK UPPER
LEVEL LOW PRESSURE OVER NORTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA...WITH A BAND OF
MID LEVEL MOISTURE STRETCHING NORTHEASTWARD INTO UTAH. AT THE
SURFACE THIS HAS RESULTED IN A BRIEF INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER ACROSS
THE AREA...NOTHING OF SIGNIFICANT CONSEQUENCE AS REGIONAL RADAR
IMAGERY REMAINS DRY. CLOUDS HAVE HAD A NEGLIGIBLE IMPACT ON
TEMPERATURES THUS FAR WITH 2040Z DESERT READINGS GENERALLY AROUND 60
DEGREES.

THE FORECAST THROUGH THE WEEKEND WILL BE ONE OF INCREASING HEIGHTS
ALOFT...MODEST BOUNDARY LAYER WARMING...AND MOSTLY SUNNY/PARTLY
CLOUD SKIES. AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES WILL CLIMB ALL THE WAY INTO THE
UPPER 70S BOTH SATURDAY AND SUNDAY WHICH ISN`T QUITE RECORD
THREATENING...BUT ISN`T ALL THAT FAR AWAY. WEATHER IMPACTS THIS
WEEKEND SHOULD BE NEGLIGIBLE.

MEANWHILE DURING THE WEEKEND...THE WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH NOTED OVER
UTAH WILL DIVE SOUTHWARD AND CUT OFF/DEEPEN JUST WEST OF NORTHERN
BAJA CALIFORNIA...RESULTING IN A REX BLOCK PATTERN BY LATE SUNDAY
NIGHT. THIS HAS BEEN ADVERTISED TO VARIOUS DEGREES BY THE EC/GEM/GFS
OVER THE PAST FEW DAYS BUT TODAY`S 00Z MODELS ALL CAME INTO DECENT
AGREEMENT. ALL MODELS SHOW +2 TO +3 SIGMA PWATS ADVECTING NORTHWARD
INTO THE REGION BY MONDAY MORNING WITH SHOWERS DEVELOPING OVER THE
AREA MONDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING. THIS WAS ALSO CONFIRMED BY THIS
MORNING`S 00Z NAEFS AND THE 12Z OPERATIONAL SUITE OF GUIDANCE. GIVEN
THIS STRONG CONSENSUS...I ELECTED TO RAISE POPS INTO THE 60-70
PERCENT RANGE ACROSS THE AREA FROM 18Z MONDAY THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY.
AT THIS POINT THIS APPEARS TO BE ANOTHER HIGH PROB...LOW QPF EVENT
ALTHOUGH WITH PWATS APPROACHING 1 INCH IN SOME LOCATIONS...CANNOT
RULE OUT ISOLATED HIGHER AMOUNTS. WILL NEED TO PIN DOWN MORE PRECISE
QPF AS WE GET A BIT CLOSER TO THE EVENT.

THE LOW EXITS THE AREA RAPIDLY BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON...RESULTING IN
CLEARING SKIES ACROSS THE AREA. HOWEVER...BROAD SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW
WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH MOST OF THE UPCOMING WEEK AS
YET ANOTHER CLOSED CIRCULATION BREAKS FREE FROM THE WESTERLIES AND
STALLS OFF THE BAJA COAST. THIS WILL RESULT IN A PROLONGED PERIOD OF
SOMEWHAT ELEVATED DEWPOINTS AND ABUNDANT 500-300MB MOISTURE. PARTLY
SUNNY/MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES ARE EXPECTED FROM WEDNESDAY ONWARD WITH AN
INCREASED CHANCE OF SHOWERS AS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH APPROACHES
THURSDAY/FRIDAY. TIMING THE EXACT PERIOD WHERE INCREASED POPS ARE
WARRANTED VERY DIFFICULT THIS FAR IN ADVANCE

&&

.AVIATION...
SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA INCLUDING KPHX...KIWA AND KSDL...

NO SIGNIFICANT AVIATION IMPACTS THROUGH SATURDAY AFTERNOON WITH
VARYING AMOUNTS OF SCT-BKN HIGH CIRRUS. SFC WINDS WILL REMAIN VERY
LIGHT...SWITCHING TO WLY DIRECTION 20Z-22Z TIME FRAME BEFORE
RETURNING TO A PREVAILING EASTERLY COMPONENT THIS EVENING. IN MANY
INSTANCES...VARIABLE WINDS WILL PREVAIL FOR PROLONGED PERIODS.

SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA AND SOUTHWEST ARIZONA INCLUDING KIPL AND KBLH...

NO SIGNIFICANT AVIATION IMPACTS THROUGH SATURDAY AFTERNOON WITH
VARYING AMOUNTS OF SCT-BKN HIGH CIRRUS. SFC WINDS WILL REMAIN
RELATIVELY LIGHT...GENERALLY FAVORING A W/NW TRAJECTORY THOUGH
POTENTIALLY REACHING THE 10KT THRESHOLD BRIEFLY.

AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDED TAFS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL PERSIST THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD AS
SOUTHERLY FLOW TAKES HOLD ACROSS THE DESERT SOUTHWEST. A LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE OUT NORTHWARD OFF THE COAST OF BAJA AND
CALIFORNIA BRINGING CHANCES FOR RAIN ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY AND A
SIGNIFICANT INCREASE IN MOISTURE. MINIMUM HUMIDITIES IN THE TEENS ON
SUNDAY WILL INCREASE STARTING MONDAY AND ONLY DIP INTO THE 25 TO 35
PERCENT RANGE ACROSS THE LOWER DESERTS THROUGH THURSDAY. WITH THE
EXCEPTION OF SOME OCCASIONAL AFTERNOON BREEZINESS...WINDS WILL
REMAIN LIGHT THROUGH THE ENTIRE PERIOD.

&&

.PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

AZ...NONE.

CA...NONE.

&&

$$

VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/PHOENIX

DISCUSSION...LEINS
AVIATION...18
FIRE WEATHER...KUHLMAN






000
FXUS65 KPSR 232042
AFDPSR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PHOENIX AZ
142 PM MST FRI JAN 23 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH CLOUDS WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE REGION TODAY. STRONG HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN DURING THE WEEKEND...RESULTING IN SUNNY SKIES
ALONG WITH A WARMING TREND. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL AFFECT THE
AREA NEXT MONDAY...BRINGING AN INCREASE IN MOISTURE AND A CHANCE OF
SHOWERS. IN ITS WAKE...ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND HIGHER THAN
NORMAL HUMIDITIES WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
EARLY AFTERNOON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY CONTINUES TO REVEAL WEAK UPPER
LEVEL LOW PRESSURE OVER NORTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA...WITH A BAND OF
MID LEVEL MOISTURE STRETCHING NORTHEASTWARD INTO UTAH. AT THE
SURFACE THIS HAS RESULTED IN A BRIEF INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER ACROSS
THE AREA...NOTHING OF SIGNIFICANT CONSEQUENCE AS REGIONAL RADAR
IMAGERY REMAINS DRY. CLOUDS HAVE HAD A NEGLIGIBLE IMPACT ON
TEMPERATURES THUS FAR WITH 2040Z DESERT READINGS GENERALLY AROUND 60
DEGREES.

THE FORECAST THROUGH THE WEEKEND WILL BE ONE OF INCREASING HEIGHTS
ALOFT...MODEST BOUNDARY LAYER WARMING...AND MOSTLY SUNNY/PARTLY
CLOUD SKIES. AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES WILL CLIMB ALL THE WAY INTO THE
UPPER 70S BOTH SATURDAY AND SUNDAY WHICH ISN`T QUITE RECORD
THREATENING...BUT ISN`T ALL THAT FAR AWAY. WEATHER IMPACTS THIS
WEEKEND SHOULD BE NEGLIGIBLE.

MEANWHILE DURING THE WEEKEND...THE WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH NOTED OVER
UTAH WILL DIVE SOUTHWARD AND CUT OFF/DEEPEN JUST WEST OF NORTHERN
BAJA CALIFORNIA...RESULTING IN A REX BLOCK PATTERN BY LATE SUNDAY
NIGHT. THIS HAS BEEN ADVERTISED TO VARIOUS DEGREES BY THE EC/GEM/GFS
OVER THE PAST FEW DAYS BUT TODAY`S 00Z MODELS ALL CAME INTO DECENT
AGREEMENT. ALL MODELS SHOW +2 TO +3 SIGMA PWATS ADVECTING NORTHWARD
INTO THE REGION BY MONDAY MORNING WITH SHOWERS DEVELOPING OVER THE
AREA MONDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING. THIS WAS ALSO CONFIRMED BY THIS
MORNING`S 00Z NAEFS AND THE 12Z OPERATIONAL SUITE OF GUIDANCE. GIVEN
THIS STRONG CONSENSUS...I ELECTED TO RAISE POPS INTO THE 60-70
PERCENT RANGE ACROSS THE AREA FROM 18Z MONDAY THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY.
AT THIS POINT THIS APPEARS TO BE ANOTHER HIGH PROB...LOW QPF EVENT
ALTHOUGH WITH PWATS APPROACHING 1 INCH IN SOME LOCATIONS...CANNOT
RULE OUT ISOLATED HIGHER AMOUNTS. WILL NEED TO PIN DOWN MORE PRECISE
QPF AS WE GET A BIT CLOSER TO THE EVENT.

THE LOW EXITS THE AREA RAPIDLY BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON...RESULTING IN
CLEARING SKIES ACROSS THE AREA. HOWEVER...BROAD SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW
WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH MOST OF THE UPCOMING WEEK AS
YET ANOTHER CLOSED CIRCULATION BREAKS FREE FROM THE WESTERLIES AND
STALLS OFF THE BAJA COAST. THIS WILL RESULT IN A PROLONGED PERIOD OF
SOMEWHAT ELEVATED DEWPOINTS AND ABUNDANT 500-300MB MOISTURE. PARTLY
SUNNY/MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES ARE EXPECTED FROM WEDNESDAY ONWARD WITH AN
INCREASED CHANCE OF SHOWERS AS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH APPROACHES
THURSDAY/FRIDAY. TIMING THE EXACT PERIOD WHERE INCREASED POPS ARE
WARRANTED VERY DIFFICULT THIS FAR IN ADVANCE

&&

.AVIATION...
SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA INCLUDING KPHX...KIWA AND KSDL...

NO SIGNIFICANT AVIATION IMPACTS THROUGH SATURDAY AFTERNOON WITH
VARYING AMOUNTS OF SCT-BKN HIGH CIRRUS. SFC WINDS WILL REMAIN VERY
LIGHT...SWITCHING TO WLY DIRECTION 20Z-22Z TIME FRAME BEFORE
RETURNING TO A PREVAILING EASTERLY COMPONENT THIS EVENING. IN MANY
INSTANCES...VARIABLE WINDS WILL PREVAIL FOR PROLONGED PERIODS.

SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA AND SOUTHWEST ARIZONA INCLUDING KIPL AND KBLH...

NO SIGNIFICANT AVIATION IMPACTS THROUGH SATURDAY AFTERNOON WITH
VARYING AMOUNTS OF SCT-BKN HIGH CIRRUS. SFC WINDS WILL REMAIN
RELATIVELY LIGHT...GENERALLY FAVORING A W/NW TRAJECTORY THOUGH
POTENTIALLY REACHING THE 10KT THRESHOLD BRIEFLY.

AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDED TAFS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL PERSIST THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD AS
SOUTHERLY FLOW TAKES HOLD ACROSS THE DESERT SOUTHWEST. A LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE OUT NORTHWARD OFF THE COAST OF BAJA AND
CALIFORNIA BRINGING CHANCES FOR RAIN ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY AND A
SIGNIFICANT INCREASE IN MOISTURE. MINIMUM HUMIDITIES IN THE TEENS ON
SUNDAY WILL INCREASE STARTING MONDAY AND ONLY DIP INTO THE 25 TO 35
PERCENT RANGE ACROSS THE LOWER DESERTS THROUGH THURSDAY. WITH THE
EXCEPTION OF SOME OCCASIONAL AFTERNOON BREEZINESS...WINDS WILL
REMAIN LIGHT THROUGH THE ENTIRE PERIOD.

&&

.PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

AZ...NONE.

CA...NONE.

&&

$$

VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/PHOENIX

DISCUSSION...LEINS
AVIATION...18
FIRE WEATHER...KUHLMAN






000
FXUS65 KPSR 232042
AFDPSR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PHOENIX AZ
142 PM MST FRI JAN 23 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH CLOUDS WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE REGION TODAY. STRONG HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN DURING THE WEEKEND...RESULTING IN SUNNY SKIES
ALONG WITH A WARMING TREND. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL AFFECT THE
AREA NEXT MONDAY...BRINGING AN INCREASE IN MOISTURE AND A CHANCE OF
SHOWERS. IN ITS WAKE...ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND HIGHER THAN
NORMAL HUMIDITIES WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
EARLY AFTERNOON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY CONTINUES TO REVEAL WEAK UPPER
LEVEL LOW PRESSURE OVER NORTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA...WITH A BAND OF
MID LEVEL MOISTURE STRETCHING NORTHEASTWARD INTO UTAH. AT THE
SURFACE THIS HAS RESULTED IN A BRIEF INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER ACROSS
THE AREA...NOTHING OF SIGNIFICANT CONSEQUENCE AS REGIONAL RADAR
IMAGERY REMAINS DRY. CLOUDS HAVE HAD A NEGLIGIBLE IMPACT ON
TEMPERATURES THUS FAR WITH 2040Z DESERT READINGS GENERALLY AROUND 60
DEGREES.

THE FORECAST THROUGH THE WEEKEND WILL BE ONE OF INCREASING HEIGHTS
ALOFT...MODEST BOUNDARY LAYER WARMING...AND MOSTLY SUNNY/PARTLY
CLOUD SKIES. AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES WILL CLIMB ALL THE WAY INTO THE
UPPER 70S BOTH SATURDAY AND SUNDAY WHICH ISN`T QUITE RECORD
THREATENING...BUT ISN`T ALL THAT FAR AWAY. WEATHER IMPACTS THIS
WEEKEND SHOULD BE NEGLIGIBLE.

MEANWHILE DURING THE WEEKEND...THE WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH NOTED OVER
UTAH WILL DIVE SOUTHWARD AND CUT OFF/DEEPEN JUST WEST OF NORTHERN
BAJA CALIFORNIA...RESULTING IN A REX BLOCK PATTERN BY LATE SUNDAY
NIGHT. THIS HAS BEEN ADVERTISED TO VARIOUS DEGREES BY THE EC/GEM/GFS
OVER THE PAST FEW DAYS BUT TODAY`S 00Z MODELS ALL CAME INTO DECENT
AGREEMENT. ALL MODELS SHOW +2 TO +3 SIGMA PWATS ADVECTING NORTHWARD
INTO THE REGION BY MONDAY MORNING WITH SHOWERS DEVELOPING OVER THE
AREA MONDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING. THIS WAS ALSO CONFIRMED BY THIS
MORNING`S 00Z NAEFS AND THE 12Z OPERATIONAL SUITE OF GUIDANCE. GIVEN
THIS STRONG CONSENSUS...I ELECTED TO RAISE POPS INTO THE 60-70
PERCENT RANGE ACROSS THE AREA FROM 18Z MONDAY THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY.
AT THIS POINT THIS APPEARS TO BE ANOTHER HIGH PROB...LOW QPF EVENT
ALTHOUGH WITH PWATS APPROACHING 1 INCH IN SOME LOCATIONS...CANNOT
RULE OUT ISOLATED HIGHER AMOUNTS. WILL NEED TO PIN DOWN MORE PRECISE
QPF AS WE GET A BIT CLOSER TO THE EVENT.

THE LOW EXITS THE AREA RAPIDLY BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON...RESULTING IN
CLEARING SKIES ACROSS THE AREA. HOWEVER...BROAD SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW
WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH MOST OF THE UPCOMING WEEK AS
YET ANOTHER CLOSED CIRCULATION BREAKS FREE FROM THE WESTERLIES AND
STALLS OFF THE BAJA COAST. THIS WILL RESULT IN A PROLONGED PERIOD OF
SOMEWHAT ELEVATED DEWPOINTS AND ABUNDANT 500-300MB MOISTURE. PARTLY
SUNNY/MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES ARE EXPECTED FROM WEDNESDAY ONWARD WITH AN
INCREASED CHANCE OF SHOWERS AS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH APPROACHES
THURSDAY/FRIDAY. TIMING THE EXACT PERIOD WHERE INCREASED POPS ARE
WARRANTED VERY DIFFICULT THIS FAR IN ADVANCE

&&

.AVIATION...
SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA INCLUDING KPHX...KIWA AND KSDL...

NO SIGNIFICANT AVIATION IMPACTS THROUGH SATURDAY AFTERNOON WITH
VARYING AMOUNTS OF SCT-BKN HIGH CIRRUS. SFC WINDS WILL REMAIN VERY
LIGHT...SWITCHING TO WLY DIRECTION 20Z-22Z TIME FRAME BEFORE
RETURNING TO A PREVAILING EASTERLY COMPONENT THIS EVENING. IN MANY
INSTANCES...VARIABLE WINDS WILL PREVAIL FOR PROLONGED PERIODS.

SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA AND SOUTHWEST ARIZONA INCLUDING KIPL AND KBLH...

NO SIGNIFICANT AVIATION IMPACTS THROUGH SATURDAY AFTERNOON WITH
VARYING AMOUNTS OF SCT-BKN HIGH CIRRUS. SFC WINDS WILL REMAIN
RELATIVELY LIGHT...GENERALLY FAVORING A W/NW TRAJECTORY THOUGH
POTENTIALLY REACHING THE 10KT THRESHOLD BRIEFLY.

AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDED TAFS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL PERSIST THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD AS
SOUTHERLY FLOW TAKES HOLD ACROSS THE DESERT SOUTHWEST. A LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE OUT NORTHWARD OFF THE COAST OF BAJA AND
CALIFORNIA BRINGING CHANCES FOR RAIN ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY AND A
SIGNIFICANT INCREASE IN MOISTURE. MINIMUM HUMIDITIES IN THE TEENS ON
SUNDAY WILL INCREASE STARTING MONDAY AND ONLY DIP INTO THE 25 TO 35
PERCENT RANGE ACROSS THE LOWER DESERTS THROUGH THURSDAY. WITH THE
EXCEPTION OF SOME OCCASIONAL AFTERNOON BREEZINESS...WINDS WILL
REMAIN LIGHT THROUGH THE ENTIRE PERIOD.

&&

.PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

AZ...NONE.

CA...NONE.

&&

$$

VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/PHOENIX

DISCUSSION...LEINS
AVIATION...18
FIRE WEATHER...KUHLMAN






000
FXUS65 KPSR 232042
AFDPSR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PHOENIX AZ
142 PM MST FRI JAN 23 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH CLOUDS WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE REGION TODAY. STRONG HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN DURING THE WEEKEND...RESULTING IN SUNNY SKIES
ALONG WITH A WARMING TREND. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL AFFECT THE
AREA NEXT MONDAY...BRINGING AN INCREASE IN MOISTURE AND A CHANCE OF
SHOWERS. IN ITS WAKE...ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND HIGHER THAN
NORMAL HUMIDITIES WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
EARLY AFTERNOON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY CONTINUES TO REVEAL WEAK UPPER
LEVEL LOW PRESSURE OVER NORTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA...WITH A BAND OF
MID LEVEL MOISTURE STRETCHING NORTHEASTWARD INTO UTAH. AT THE
SURFACE THIS HAS RESULTED IN A BRIEF INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER ACROSS
THE AREA...NOTHING OF SIGNIFICANT CONSEQUENCE AS REGIONAL RADAR
IMAGERY REMAINS DRY. CLOUDS HAVE HAD A NEGLIGIBLE IMPACT ON
TEMPERATURES THUS FAR WITH 2040Z DESERT READINGS GENERALLY AROUND 60
DEGREES.

THE FORECAST THROUGH THE WEEKEND WILL BE ONE OF INCREASING HEIGHTS
ALOFT...MODEST BOUNDARY LAYER WARMING...AND MOSTLY SUNNY/PARTLY
CLOUD SKIES. AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES WILL CLIMB ALL THE WAY INTO THE
UPPER 70S BOTH SATURDAY AND SUNDAY WHICH ISN`T QUITE RECORD
THREATENING...BUT ISN`T ALL THAT FAR AWAY. WEATHER IMPACTS THIS
WEEKEND SHOULD BE NEGLIGIBLE.

MEANWHILE DURING THE WEEKEND...THE WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH NOTED OVER
UTAH WILL DIVE SOUTHWARD AND CUT OFF/DEEPEN JUST WEST OF NORTHERN
BAJA CALIFORNIA...RESULTING IN A REX BLOCK PATTERN BY LATE SUNDAY
NIGHT. THIS HAS BEEN ADVERTISED TO VARIOUS DEGREES BY THE EC/GEM/GFS
OVER THE PAST FEW DAYS BUT TODAY`S 00Z MODELS ALL CAME INTO DECENT
AGREEMENT. ALL MODELS SHOW +2 TO +3 SIGMA PWATS ADVECTING NORTHWARD
INTO THE REGION BY MONDAY MORNING WITH SHOWERS DEVELOPING OVER THE
AREA MONDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING. THIS WAS ALSO CONFIRMED BY THIS
MORNING`S 00Z NAEFS AND THE 12Z OPERATIONAL SUITE OF GUIDANCE. GIVEN
THIS STRONG CONSENSUS...I ELECTED TO RAISE POPS INTO THE 60-70
PERCENT RANGE ACROSS THE AREA FROM 18Z MONDAY THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY.
AT THIS POINT THIS APPEARS TO BE ANOTHER HIGH PROB...LOW QPF EVENT
ALTHOUGH WITH PWATS APPROACHING 1 INCH IN SOME LOCATIONS...CANNOT
RULE OUT ISOLATED HIGHER AMOUNTS. WILL NEED TO PIN DOWN MORE PRECISE
QPF AS WE GET A BIT CLOSER TO THE EVENT.

THE LOW EXITS THE AREA RAPIDLY BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON...RESULTING IN
CLEARING SKIES ACROSS THE AREA. HOWEVER...BROAD SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW
WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH MOST OF THE UPCOMING WEEK AS
YET ANOTHER CLOSED CIRCULATION BREAKS FREE FROM THE WESTERLIES AND
STALLS OFF THE BAJA COAST. THIS WILL RESULT IN A PROLONGED PERIOD OF
SOMEWHAT ELEVATED DEWPOINTS AND ABUNDANT 500-300MB MOISTURE. PARTLY
SUNNY/MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES ARE EXPECTED FROM WEDNESDAY ONWARD WITH AN
INCREASED CHANCE OF SHOWERS AS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH APPROACHES
THURSDAY/FRIDAY. TIMING THE EXACT PERIOD WHERE INCREASED POPS ARE
WARRANTED VERY DIFFICULT THIS FAR IN ADVANCE

&&

.AVIATION...
SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA INCLUDING KPHX...KIWA AND KSDL...

NO SIGNIFICANT AVIATION IMPACTS THROUGH SATURDAY AFTERNOON WITH
VARYING AMOUNTS OF SCT-BKN HIGH CIRRUS. SFC WINDS WILL REMAIN VERY
LIGHT...SWITCHING TO WLY DIRECTION 20Z-22Z TIME FRAME BEFORE
RETURNING TO A PREVAILING EASTERLY COMPONENT THIS EVENING. IN MANY
INSTANCES...VARIABLE WINDS WILL PREVAIL FOR PROLONGED PERIODS.

SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA AND SOUTHWEST ARIZONA INCLUDING KIPL AND KBLH...

NO SIGNIFICANT AVIATION IMPACTS THROUGH SATURDAY AFTERNOON WITH
VARYING AMOUNTS OF SCT-BKN HIGH CIRRUS. SFC WINDS WILL REMAIN
RELATIVELY LIGHT...GENERALLY FAVORING A W/NW TRAJECTORY THOUGH
POTENTIALLY REACHING THE 10KT THRESHOLD BRIEFLY.

AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDED TAFS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL PERSIST THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD AS
SOUTHERLY FLOW TAKES HOLD ACROSS THE DESERT SOUTHWEST. A LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE OUT NORTHWARD OFF THE COAST OF BAJA AND
CALIFORNIA BRINGING CHANCES FOR RAIN ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY AND A
SIGNIFICANT INCREASE IN MOISTURE. MINIMUM HUMIDITIES IN THE TEENS ON
SUNDAY WILL INCREASE STARTING MONDAY AND ONLY DIP INTO THE 25 TO 35
PERCENT RANGE ACROSS THE LOWER DESERTS THROUGH THURSDAY. WITH THE
EXCEPTION OF SOME OCCASIONAL AFTERNOON BREEZINESS...WINDS WILL
REMAIN LIGHT THROUGH THE ENTIRE PERIOD.

&&

.PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

AZ...NONE.

CA...NONE.

&&

$$

VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/PHOENIX

DISCUSSION...LEINS
AVIATION...18
FIRE WEATHER...KUHLMAN






000
FXUS65 KFGZ 231652
AFDFGZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ
955 AM MST FRI JAN 23 2015

.SYNOPSIS...DRY AND WARMER WEATHER IS EXPECTED TODAY AND OVER THE
WEEKEND. STARTING MONDAY...A SERIES OF WEATHER SYSTEMS WILL BRING
INCREASED MOISTURE TO ARIZONA...ALONG WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS.

&&

.DISCUSSION...DESPITE A RIDGE BUILDING TO OUR NORTH AND WEST OVER
THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS...LOWER LEVEL NORTHEAST FLOW WILL KEEP AREAS
ALONG AND NORTHEAST OF THE RIM RELATIVELY COOL. AREAS SOUTH OF THE
RIM WILL BECOME QUITE WARM...NORTHEAST FLOW IS DOWNSLOPE FOR THESE
LOCATIONS. FLOW TURNS SOUTHERLY BY EARLY NEXT WEEK AND A SURGE OF
SUB-TROPICAL MOISTURE IS LOOKING MORE AND MORE LIKELY. CURRENT
FORECAST LOOKS GOOD AND NO UPDATES ARE PLANNED.

&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 18Z PACKAGE...EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS FOR THE NEXT
24 HOURS UNDER VARIABLE HIGH CLOUDS. SFC WINDS N-NE 5-15KT. AVIATION
DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR TAF AMENDMENTS.

&&

.FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC.........PETERSON
AVIATION.......MAS

FOR NORTHERN ARIZONA WEATHER INFORMATION VISIT
WEATHER.GOV/FLAGSTAFF





000
FXUS65 KFGZ 231652
AFDFGZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ
955 AM MST FRI JAN 23 2015

.SYNOPSIS...DRY AND WARMER WEATHER IS EXPECTED TODAY AND OVER THE
WEEKEND. STARTING MONDAY...A SERIES OF WEATHER SYSTEMS WILL BRING
INCREASED MOISTURE TO ARIZONA...ALONG WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS.

&&

.DISCUSSION...DESPITE A RIDGE BUILDING TO OUR NORTH AND WEST OVER
THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS...LOWER LEVEL NORTHEAST FLOW WILL KEEP AREAS
ALONG AND NORTHEAST OF THE RIM RELATIVELY COOL. AREAS SOUTH OF THE
RIM WILL BECOME QUITE WARM...NORTHEAST FLOW IS DOWNSLOPE FOR THESE
LOCATIONS. FLOW TURNS SOUTHERLY BY EARLY NEXT WEEK AND A SURGE OF
SUB-TROPICAL MOISTURE IS LOOKING MORE AND MORE LIKELY. CURRENT
FORECAST LOOKS GOOD AND NO UPDATES ARE PLANNED.

&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 18Z PACKAGE...EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS FOR THE NEXT
24 HOURS UNDER VARIABLE HIGH CLOUDS. SFC WINDS N-NE 5-15KT. AVIATION
DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR TAF AMENDMENTS.

&&

.FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC.........PETERSON
AVIATION.......MAS

FOR NORTHERN ARIZONA WEATHER INFORMATION VISIT
WEATHER.GOV/FLAGSTAFF





000
FXUS65 KFGZ 231652
AFDFGZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ
955 AM MST FRI JAN 23 2015

.SYNOPSIS...DRY AND WARMER WEATHER IS EXPECTED TODAY AND OVER THE
WEEKEND. STARTING MONDAY...A SERIES OF WEATHER SYSTEMS WILL BRING
INCREASED MOISTURE TO ARIZONA...ALONG WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS.

&&

.DISCUSSION...DESPITE A RIDGE BUILDING TO OUR NORTH AND WEST OVER
THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS...LOWER LEVEL NORTHEAST FLOW WILL KEEP AREAS
ALONG AND NORTHEAST OF THE RIM RELATIVELY COOL. AREAS SOUTH OF THE
RIM WILL BECOME QUITE WARM...NORTHEAST FLOW IS DOWNSLOPE FOR THESE
LOCATIONS. FLOW TURNS SOUTHERLY BY EARLY NEXT WEEK AND A SURGE OF
SUB-TROPICAL MOISTURE IS LOOKING MORE AND MORE LIKELY. CURRENT
FORECAST LOOKS GOOD AND NO UPDATES ARE PLANNED.

&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 18Z PACKAGE...EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS FOR THE NEXT
24 HOURS UNDER VARIABLE HIGH CLOUDS. SFC WINDS N-NE 5-15KT. AVIATION
DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR TAF AMENDMENTS.

&&

.FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC.........PETERSON
AVIATION.......MAS

FOR NORTHERN ARIZONA WEATHER INFORMATION VISIT
WEATHER.GOV/FLAGSTAFF





000
FXUS65 KFGZ 231652
AFDFGZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ
955 AM MST FRI JAN 23 2015

.SYNOPSIS...DRY AND WARMER WEATHER IS EXPECTED TODAY AND OVER THE
WEEKEND. STARTING MONDAY...A SERIES OF WEATHER SYSTEMS WILL BRING
INCREASED MOISTURE TO ARIZONA...ALONG WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS.

&&

.DISCUSSION...DESPITE A RIDGE BUILDING TO OUR NORTH AND WEST OVER
THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS...LOWER LEVEL NORTHEAST FLOW WILL KEEP AREAS
ALONG AND NORTHEAST OF THE RIM RELATIVELY COOL. AREAS SOUTH OF THE
RIM WILL BECOME QUITE WARM...NORTHEAST FLOW IS DOWNSLOPE FOR THESE
LOCATIONS. FLOW TURNS SOUTHERLY BY EARLY NEXT WEEK AND A SURGE OF
SUB-TROPICAL MOISTURE IS LOOKING MORE AND MORE LIKELY. CURRENT
FORECAST LOOKS GOOD AND NO UPDATES ARE PLANNED.

&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 18Z PACKAGE...EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS FOR THE NEXT
24 HOURS UNDER VARIABLE HIGH CLOUDS. SFC WINDS N-NE 5-15KT. AVIATION
DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR TAF AMENDMENTS.

&&

.FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC.........PETERSON
AVIATION.......MAS

FOR NORTHERN ARIZONA WEATHER INFORMATION VISIT
WEATHER.GOV/FLAGSTAFF





000
FXUS65 KFGZ 231652
AFDFGZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ
955 AM MST FRI JAN 23 2015

.SYNOPSIS...DRY AND WARMER WEATHER IS EXPECTED TODAY AND OVER THE
WEEKEND. STARTING MONDAY...A SERIES OF WEATHER SYSTEMS WILL BRING
INCREASED MOISTURE TO ARIZONA...ALONG WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS.

&&

.DISCUSSION...DESPITE A RIDGE BUILDING TO OUR NORTH AND WEST OVER
THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS...LOWER LEVEL NORTHEAST FLOW WILL KEEP AREAS
ALONG AND NORTHEAST OF THE RIM RELATIVELY COOL. AREAS SOUTH OF THE
RIM WILL BECOME QUITE WARM...NORTHEAST FLOW IS DOWNSLOPE FOR THESE
LOCATIONS. FLOW TURNS SOUTHERLY BY EARLY NEXT WEEK AND A SURGE OF
SUB-TROPICAL MOISTURE IS LOOKING MORE AND MORE LIKELY. CURRENT
FORECAST LOOKS GOOD AND NO UPDATES ARE PLANNED.

&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 18Z PACKAGE...EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS FOR THE NEXT
24 HOURS UNDER VARIABLE HIGH CLOUDS. SFC WINDS N-NE 5-15KT. AVIATION
DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR TAF AMENDMENTS.

&&

.FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC.........PETERSON
AVIATION.......MAS

FOR NORTHERN ARIZONA WEATHER INFORMATION VISIT
WEATHER.GOV/FLAGSTAFF





000
FXUS65 KFGZ 231652
AFDFGZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ
955 AM MST FRI JAN 23 2015

.SYNOPSIS...DRY AND WARMER WEATHER IS EXPECTED TODAY AND OVER THE
WEEKEND. STARTING MONDAY...A SERIES OF WEATHER SYSTEMS WILL BRING
INCREASED MOISTURE TO ARIZONA...ALONG WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS.

&&

.DISCUSSION...DESPITE A RIDGE BUILDING TO OUR NORTH AND WEST OVER
THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS...LOWER LEVEL NORTHEAST FLOW WILL KEEP AREAS
ALONG AND NORTHEAST OF THE RIM RELATIVELY COOL. AREAS SOUTH OF THE
RIM WILL BECOME QUITE WARM...NORTHEAST FLOW IS DOWNSLOPE FOR THESE
LOCATIONS. FLOW TURNS SOUTHERLY BY EARLY NEXT WEEK AND A SURGE OF
SUB-TROPICAL MOISTURE IS LOOKING MORE AND MORE LIKELY. CURRENT
FORECAST LOOKS GOOD AND NO UPDATES ARE PLANNED.

&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 18Z PACKAGE...EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS FOR THE NEXT
24 HOURS UNDER VARIABLE HIGH CLOUDS. SFC WINDS N-NE 5-15KT. AVIATION
DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR TAF AMENDMENTS.

&&

.FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC.........PETERSON
AVIATION.......MAS

FOR NORTHERN ARIZONA WEATHER INFORMATION VISIT
WEATHER.GOV/FLAGSTAFF





000
FXUS65 KFGZ 231652
AFDFGZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ
955 AM MST FRI JAN 23 2015

.SYNOPSIS...DRY AND WARMER WEATHER IS EXPECTED TODAY AND OVER THE
WEEKEND. STARTING MONDAY...A SERIES OF WEATHER SYSTEMS WILL BRING
INCREASED MOISTURE TO ARIZONA...ALONG WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS.

&&

.DISCUSSION...DESPITE A RIDGE BUILDING TO OUR NORTH AND WEST OVER
THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS...LOWER LEVEL NORTHEAST FLOW WILL KEEP AREAS
ALONG AND NORTHEAST OF THE RIM RELATIVELY COOL. AREAS SOUTH OF THE
RIM WILL BECOME QUITE WARM...NORTHEAST FLOW IS DOWNSLOPE FOR THESE
LOCATIONS. FLOW TURNS SOUTHERLY BY EARLY NEXT WEEK AND A SURGE OF
SUB-TROPICAL MOISTURE IS LOOKING MORE AND MORE LIKELY. CURRENT
FORECAST LOOKS GOOD AND NO UPDATES ARE PLANNED.

&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 18Z PACKAGE...EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS FOR THE NEXT
24 HOURS UNDER VARIABLE HIGH CLOUDS. SFC WINDS N-NE 5-15KT. AVIATION
DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR TAF AMENDMENTS.

&&

.FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC.........PETERSON
AVIATION.......MAS

FOR NORTHERN ARIZONA WEATHER INFORMATION VISIT
WEATHER.GOV/FLAGSTAFF





000
FXUS65 KFGZ 231652
AFDFGZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ
955 AM MST FRI JAN 23 2015

.SYNOPSIS...DRY AND WARMER WEATHER IS EXPECTED TODAY AND OVER THE
WEEKEND. STARTING MONDAY...A SERIES OF WEATHER SYSTEMS WILL BRING
INCREASED MOISTURE TO ARIZONA...ALONG WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS.

&&

.DISCUSSION...DESPITE A RIDGE BUILDING TO OUR NORTH AND WEST OVER
THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS...LOWER LEVEL NORTHEAST FLOW WILL KEEP AREAS
ALONG AND NORTHEAST OF THE RIM RELATIVELY COOL. AREAS SOUTH OF THE
RIM WILL BECOME QUITE WARM...NORTHEAST FLOW IS DOWNSLOPE FOR THESE
LOCATIONS. FLOW TURNS SOUTHERLY BY EARLY NEXT WEEK AND A SURGE OF
SUB-TROPICAL MOISTURE IS LOOKING MORE AND MORE LIKELY. CURRENT
FORECAST LOOKS GOOD AND NO UPDATES ARE PLANNED.

&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 18Z PACKAGE...EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS FOR THE NEXT
24 HOURS UNDER VARIABLE HIGH CLOUDS. SFC WINDS N-NE 5-15KT. AVIATION
DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR TAF AMENDMENTS.

&&

.FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC.........PETERSON
AVIATION.......MAS

FOR NORTHERN ARIZONA WEATHER INFORMATION VISIT
WEATHER.GOV/FLAGSTAFF





000
FXUS65 KTWC 231643
AFDTWC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ
930 AM MST FRI JAN 23 2015

.SYNOPSIS...GUSTY EAST WINDS WILL EASE LATER TODAY. WARMER HIGH
TEMPERATURES TODAY WITH WARMUP TO CONTINUE THIS WEEKEND. A LOW WEST
OF BAJA WILL PUSH MOISTURE NORTH AND BRINGS A THREAT OF SHOWERS TO
SOUTHERN ARIZONA MONDAY INTO EARLY TUESDAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...GUSTY EAST WINDS ONGOING ACROSS SOUTHEAST ARIZONA
SHOULD PERSIST THROUGH THE EARLY AFTERNOON...THEN DECREASE IN THE
VALLEYS BY THE EVENING. THE MOUNTAIN AREAS WILL SEE THE WIND GUSTS
INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS THOUGH.

MY PRIMARY FOCUS FOR THE NEXT SEVEN DAYS IS THE PRECIP CHANCES ON
MONDAY AND TUESDAY...FOLLOWED BY THE END OF THE WEEK SYSTEM.

THE MIDNIGHT SHIFT COMPILED SOME EXCELLENT CLIMATOLOGY INFORMATION
BASED ON THE EXPECTED PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES FOR MONDAY AND
TUESDAY. HERE IS A QUICK RUNDOWN BASED ON PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES
NEAR 1 INCH IN JANUARY...

TUCSON RECEIVED PRECIPITATION NEARLY 80 PERCENT OF THE TIME AND
EXPERIENCED TWO TOP FIVE WETTEST JANUARY DAYS.

DOUGLAS RECEIVED PRECIP NEARLY 70 PERCENT OF THE TIME.

AJO RECEIVED PRECIP A LITTLE LESS FREQUENTLY AT 50 PERCENT...BUT
ALSO EXPERIENCED THE 5TH WETTEST JANUARY DAY ON RECORD.

USING THIS CLIMATOLOGY INFORMATION...ALONG WITH THE LATEST GUIDANCE
OF COURSE...I EXPECT TO INCREASE PRECIP CHANCES FOR TUESDAY MORNING.

I AM STILL NOT SOLD ON A WIDESPREAD HEAVY RAIN EVENT...BUT WE COULD
SEE SOME LOCALIZED MINOR FLOOD CONCERNS. RIGHT NOW...IT JUST LOOKS
LIKE GENERALLY LESS THAN A HALF INCH OF RAIN.

MORE ON THE END OF THE WEEK SYSTEM WITH THE AFTERNOON AFD.

JJB

&&

.AVIATION...VALID THRU 24/12Z.
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL IN AND AROUND THE TERMINALS OVER THE
NEXT 24 HOURS AS AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE CONTINUES TO MOVE EAST OF
THE AREA. EAST WINDS WILL IMPACT MOST AREAS THROUGH THIS MORNING AND
INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS WITH GUSTS UP TO 20 MPH. WINDS
DIMINISHING DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING HOURS.
AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR TAF AMENDMENTS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...BRISK EAST WINDS WILL IMPACT MOST AREAS THROUGH THE
EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS BEFORE DIMINISHING DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON
AND EARLY EVENING...WITH GUSTS DURING THE MORNING AND EARLY
AFTERNOON UP TO 20 MPH. EAST WINDS WILL OCCUR AGAIN SATURDAY WITH
OCCASIONAL GUSTS UP TO 25 TO 30 MPH. DRY AND STABLE WEATHER WILL
BUILD BACK IN WITH WARMING TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

MOISTURE AND THE POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE EARLY
NEXT WEEK AS LOW PRESSURE OFF THE BAJA COAST LIFTS NORTH. THE BEST
CHANCE FOR SHOWERS WILL OCCUR MONDAY NIGHT NEAR THE BORDER WITH
MEXICO.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...GUSTY EAST WINDS WERE STILL OCCURRING THIS
MORNING ACROSS MOST OF SE AZ. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER THE AREA
WILL WEAKEN TODAY AS THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM THAT BROUGHT LIGHT
SHOWERS TO THE FAR EASTERN AREAS ON THURSDAY CONTINUES TO MOVE EAST
ACROSS TEXAS. ELSEWHERE WATER VAPOR IMAGERY THIS MORNING SHOWED A
WEAK TROF MOVING THRU SRN CA WITH HIGH CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH IT
MOVING INTO SW AZ. FOR TODAY EXPECT A MIX OF SUN AND HIGH CLOUDS.
WARMER TODAY WITH THE BIGGEST CHANGE BEING IN THE MOUNTAINS WHERE
HIGHS WILL BE 8-13 DEGREES WARMER THAN THURSDAY WHILE THE VALLEYS
WILL BE 2-4 DEGREES WARMER.

THE WEEKEND LOOKS FABULOUS WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES WARMING BACK INTO
THE 60S AND 70S FOR THE LOWER ELEVATIONS AND 50S AND 60S IN THE
MOUNTAINS.

THE MAIN ITEM TO WATCH OVER THE WEEKEND WILL BE AN AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE DEVELOPING OFF THE BAJA COAST. THIS UPPER LOW WILL GRAB
ONTO TROPICAL MOISTURE THAT IS CURRENTLY SOUTH OF 25N BTWN 115W-125W
AND SPREAD INTO NORTH INTO NORTHERN MEXICO. MOISTURE VALUES WILL BE
ON THE INCREASE FROM THE SOUTH LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY WITH GFS/NAM
MODELS PUSHING PW VALUES OVER 1" WEST OF TUCSON. UPPER DYNAMICS WILL
BE ON THE INCREASE AREA WIDE ON MONDAY WHICH WILL BRING A CHANCE OF
SHOWERS TO THE AREA WITH BEST AREAL COVERAGE OF SHOWERS...AT THIS
TIME...BEING MONDAY EVENING. MADE SOME SLIGHT ADJUSTMENT UPWARD IN
POP FIELDS BUT LIKELY STILL NOT HIGH ENOUGH. PLENTY OF TIME TO TWEAK
THESE VALUES. THIS WILL BE A WARM SYSTEM THUS SNOW LEVELS WILL BE
ABOVE THE MOUNTAIN PEAKS. CAN`T RULE OUT A RUMBLE OR TWO OF THUNDER
BUT WAY TO EARLY TO PINPOINT THE BEST AREA.

DRIER AIR PUSHES IN ON TUESDAY AS THE UPPER LOW LIFTS NE INTO UTAH.
AT THIS TIME TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY LOOK DRY. MAY HAVE ANOTHER
SOUTHERN STREAM SYSTEM IMPACT THE AREA LATE NEXT WEEK. STAY TUNED.

TEMPERATURES NEXT WEEK WILL REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...YOUTUBE...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/TUCSON










000
FXUS65 KTWC 231643
AFDTWC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ
930 AM MST FRI JAN 23 2015

.SYNOPSIS...GUSTY EAST WINDS WILL EASE LATER TODAY. WARMER HIGH
TEMPERATURES TODAY WITH WARMUP TO CONTINUE THIS WEEKEND. A LOW WEST
OF BAJA WILL PUSH MOISTURE NORTH AND BRINGS A THREAT OF SHOWERS TO
SOUTHERN ARIZONA MONDAY INTO EARLY TUESDAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...GUSTY EAST WINDS ONGOING ACROSS SOUTHEAST ARIZONA
SHOULD PERSIST THROUGH THE EARLY AFTERNOON...THEN DECREASE IN THE
VALLEYS BY THE EVENING. THE MOUNTAIN AREAS WILL SEE THE WIND GUSTS
INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS THOUGH.

MY PRIMARY FOCUS FOR THE NEXT SEVEN DAYS IS THE PRECIP CHANCES ON
MONDAY AND TUESDAY...FOLLOWED BY THE END OF THE WEEK SYSTEM.

THE MIDNIGHT SHIFT COMPILED SOME EXCELLENT CLIMATOLOGY INFORMATION
BASED ON THE EXPECTED PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES FOR MONDAY AND
TUESDAY. HERE IS A QUICK RUNDOWN BASED ON PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES
NEAR 1 INCH IN JANUARY...

TUCSON RECEIVED PRECIPITATION NEARLY 80 PERCENT OF THE TIME AND
EXPERIENCED TWO TOP FIVE WETTEST JANUARY DAYS.

DOUGLAS RECEIVED PRECIP NEARLY 70 PERCENT OF THE TIME.

AJO RECEIVED PRECIP A LITTLE LESS FREQUENTLY AT 50 PERCENT...BUT
ALSO EXPERIENCED THE 5TH WETTEST JANUARY DAY ON RECORD.

USING THIS CLIMATOLOGY INFORMATION...ALONG WITH THE LATEST GUIDANCE
OF COURSE...I EXPECT TO INCREASE PRECIP CHANCES FOR TUESDAY MORNING.

I AM STILL NOT SOLD ON A WIDESPREAD HEAVY RAIN EVENT...BUT WE COULD
SEE SOME LOCALIZED MINOR FLOOD CONCERNS. RIGHT NOW...IT JUST LOOKS
LIKE GENERALLY LESS THAN A HALF INCH OF RAIN.

MORE ON THE END OF THE WEEK SYSTEM WITH THE AFTERNOON AFD.

JJB

&&

.AVIATION...VALID THRU 24/12Z.
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL IN AND AROUND THE TERMINALS OVER THE
NEXT 24 HOURS AS AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE CONTINUES TO MOVE EAST OF
THE AREA. EAST WINDS WILL IMPACT MOST AREAS THROUGH THIS MORNING AND
INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS WITH GUSTS UP TO 20 MPH. WINDS
DIMINISHING DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING HOURS.
AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR TAF AMENDMENTS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...BRISK EAST WINDS WILL IMPACT MOST AREAS THROUGH THE
EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS BEFORE DIMINISHING DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON
AND EARLY EVENING...WITH GUSTS DURING THE MORNING AND EARLY
AFTERNOON UP TO 20 MPH. EAST WINDS WILL OCCUR AGAIN SATURDAY WITH
OCCASIONAL GUSTS UP TO 25 TO 30 MPH. DRY AND STABLE WEATHER WILL
BUILD BACK IN WITH WARMING TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

MOISTURE AND THE POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE EARLY
NEXT WEEK AS LOW PRESSURE OFF THE BAJA COAST LIFTS NORTH. THE BEST
CHANCE FOR SHOWERS WILL OCCUR MONDAY NIGHT NEAR THE BORDER WITH
MEXICO.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...GUSTY EAST WINDS WERE STILL OCCURRING THIS
MORNING ACROSS MOST OF SE AZ. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER THE AREA
WILL WEAKEN TODAY AS THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM THAT BROUGHT LIGHT
SHOWERS TO THE FAR EASTERN AREAS ON THURSDAY CONTINUES TO MOVE EAST
ACROSS TEXAS. ELSEWHERE WATER VAPOR IMAGERY THIS MORNING SHOWED A
WEAK TROF MOVING THRU SRN CA WITH HIGH CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH IT
MOVING INTO SW AZ. FOR TODAY EXPECT A MIX OF SUN AND HIGH CLOUDS.
WARMER TODAY WITH THE BIGGEST CHANGE BEING IN THE MOUNTAINS WHERE
HIGHS WILL BE 8-13 DEGREES WARMER THAN THURSDAY WHILE THE VALLEYS
WILL BE 2-4 DEGREES WARMER.

THE WEEKEND LOOKS FABULOUS WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES WARMING BACK INTO
THE 60S AND 70S FOR THE LOWER ELEVATIONS AND 50S AND 60S IN THE
MOUNTAINS.

THE MAIN ITEM TO WATCH OVER THE WEEKEND WILL BE AN AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE DEVELOPING OFF THE BAJA COAST. THIS UPPER LOW WILL GRAB
ONTO TROPICAL MOISTURE THAT IS CURRENTLY SOUTH OF 25N BTWN 115W-125W
AND SPREAD INTO NORTH INTO NORTHERN MEXICO. MOISTURE VALUES WILL BE
ON THE INCREASE FROM THE SOUTH LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY WITH GFS/NAM
MODELS PUSHING PW VALUES OVER 1" WEST OF TUCSON. UPPER DYNAMICS WILL
BE ON THE INCREASE AREA WIDE ON MONDAY WHICH WILL BRING A CHANCE OF
SHOWERS TO THE AREA WITH BEST AREAL COVERAGE OF SHOWERS...AT THIS
TIME...BEING MONDAY EVENING. MADE SOME SLIGHT ADJUSTMENT UPWARD IN
POP FIELDS BUT LIKELY STILL NOT HIGH ENOUGH. PLENTY OF TIME TO TWEAK
THESE VALUES. THIS WILL BE A WARM SYSTEM THUS SNOW LEVELS WILL BE
ABOVE THE MOUNTAIN PEAKS. CAN`T RULE OUT A RUMBLE OR TWO OF THUNDER
BUT WAY TO EARLY TO PINPOINT THE BEST AREA.

DRIER AIR PUSHES IN ON TUESDAY AS THE UPPER LOW LIFTS NE INTO UTAH.
AT THIS TIME TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY LOOK DRY. MAY HAVE ANOTHER
SOUTHERN STREAM SYSTEM IMPACT THE AREA LATE NEXT WEEK. STAY TUNED.

TEMPERATURES NEXT WEEK WILL REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...YOUTUBE...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/TUCSON










000
FXUS65 KTWC 231643
AFDTWC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ
930 AM MST FRI JAN 23 2015

.SYNOPSIS...GUSTY EAST WINDS WILL EASE LATER TODAY. WARMER HIGH
TEMPERATURES TODAY WITH WARMUP TO CONTINUE THIS WEEKEND. A LOW WEST
OF BAJA WILL PUSH MOISTURE NORTH AND BRINGS A THREAT OF SHOWERS TO
SOUTHERN ARIZONA MONDAY INTO EARLY TUESDAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...GUSTY EAST WINDS ONGOING ACROSS SOUTHEAST ARIZONA
SHOULD PERSIST THROUGH THE EARLY AFTERNOON...THEN DECREASE IN THE
VALLEYS BY THE EVENING. THE MOUNTAIN AREAS WILL SEE THE WIND GUSTS
INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS THOUGH.

MY PRIMARY FOCUS FOR THE NEXT SEVEN DAYS IS THE PRECIP CHANCES ON
MONDAY AND TUESDAY...FOLLOWED BY THE END OF THE WEEK SYSTEM.

THE MIDNIGHT SHIFT COMPILED SOME EXCELLENT CLIMATOLOGY INFORMATION
BASED ON THE EXPECTED PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES FOR MONDAY AND
TUESDAY. HERE IS A QUICK RUNDOWN BASED ON PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES
NEAR 1 INCH IN JANUARY...

TUCSON RECEIVED PRECIPITATION NEARLY 80 PERCENT OF THE TIME AND
EXPERIENCED TWO TOP FIVE WETTEST JANUARY DAYS.

DOUGLAS RECEIVED PRECIP NEARLY 70 PERCENT OF THE TIME.

AJO RECEIVED PRECIP A LITTLE LESS FREQUENTLY AT 50 PERCENT...BUT
ALSO EXPERIENCED THE 5TH WETTEST JANUARY DAY ON RECORD.

USING THIS CLIMATOLOGY INFORMATION...ALONG WITH THE LATEST GUIDANCE
OF COURSE...I EXPECT TO INCREASE PRECIP CHANCES FOR TUESDAY MORNING.

I AM STILL NOT SOLD ON A WIDESPREAD HEAVY RAIN EVENT...BUT WE COULD
SEE SOME LOCALIZED MINOR FLOOD CONCERNS. RIGHT NOW...IT JUST LOOKS
LIKE GENERALLY LESS THAN A HALF INCH OF RAIN.

MORE ON THE END OF THE WEEK SYSTEM WITH THE AFTERNOON AFD.

JJB

&&

.AVIATION...VALID THRU 24/12Z.
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL IN AND AROUND THE TERMINALS OVER THE
NEXT 24 HOURS AS AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE CONTINUES TO MOVE EAST OF
THE AREA. EAST WINDS WILL IMPACT MOST AREAS THROUGH THIS MORNING AND
INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS WITH GUSTS UP TO 20 MPH. WINDS
DIMINISHING DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING HOURS.
AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR TAF AMENDMENTS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...BRISK EAST WINDS WILL IMPACT MOST AREAS THROUGH THE
EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS BEFORE DIMINISHING DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON
AND EARLY EVENING...WITH GUSTS DURING THE MORNING AND EARLY
AFTERNOON UP TO 20 MPH. EAST WINDS WILL OCCUR AGAIN SATURDAY WITH
OCCASIONAL GUSTS UP TO 25 TO 30 MPH. DRY AND STABLE WEATHER WILL
BUILD BACK IN WITH WARMING TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

MOISTURE AND THE POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE EARLY
NEXT WEEK AS LOW PRESSURE OFF THE BAJA COAST LIFTS NORTH. THE BEST
CHANCE FOR SHOWERS WILL OCCUR MONDAY NIGHT NEAR THE BORDER WITH
MEXICO.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...GUSTY EAST WINDS WERE STILL OCCURRING THIS
MORNING ACROSS MOST OF SE AZ. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER THE AREA
WILL WEAKEN TODAY AS THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM THAT BROUGHT LIGHT
SHOWERS TO THE FAR EASTERN AREAS ON THURSDAY CONTINUES TO MOVE EAST
ACROSS TEXAS. ELSEWHERE WATER VAPOR IMAGERY THIS MORNING SHOWED A
WEAK TROF MOVING THRU SRN CA WITH HIGH CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH IT
MOVING INTO SW AZ. FOR TODAY EXPECT A MIX OF SUN AND HIGH CLOUDS.
WARMER TODAY WITH THE BIGGEST CHANGE BEING IN THE MOUNTAINS WHERE
HIGHS WILL BE 8-13 DEGREES WARMER THAN THURSDAY WHILE THE VALLEYS
WILL BE 2-4 DEGREES WARMER.

THE WEEKEND LOOKS FABULOUS WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES WARMING BACK INTO
THE 60S AND 70S FOR THE LOWER ELEVATIONS AND 50S AND 60S IN THE
MOUNTAINS.

THE MAIN ITEM TO WATCH OVER THE WEEKEND WILL BE AN AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE DEVELOPING OFF THE BAJA COAST. THIS UPPER LOW WILL GRAB
ONTO TROPICAL MOISTURE THAT IS CURRENTLY SOUTH OF 25N BTWN 115W-125W
AND SPREAD INTO NORTH INTO NORTHERN MEXICO. MOISTURE VALUES WILL BE
ON THE INCREASE FROM THE SOUTH LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY WITH GFS/NAM
MODELS PUSHING PW VALUES OVER 1" WEST OF TUCSON. UPPER DYNAMICS WILL
BE ON THE INCREASE AREA WIDE ON MONDAY WHICH WILL BRING A CHANCE OF
SHOWERS TO THE AREA WITH BEST AREAL COVERAGE OF SHOWERS...AT THIS
TIME...BEING MONDAY EVENING. MADE SOME SLIGHT ADJUSTMENT UPWARD IN
POP FIELDS BUT LIKELY STILL NOT HIGH ENOUGH. PLENTY OF TIME TO TWEAK
THESE VALUES. THIS WILL BE A WARM SYSTEM THUS SNOW LEVELS WILL BE
ABOVE THE MOUNTAIN PEAKS. CAN`T RULE OUT A RUMBLE OR TWO OF THUNDER
BUT WAY TO EARLY TO PINPOINT THE BEST AREA.

DRIER AIR PUSHES IN ON TUESDAY AS THE UPPER LOW LIFTS NE INTO UTAH.
AT THIS TIME TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY LOOK DRY. MAY HAVE ANOTHER
SOUTHERN STREAM SYSTEM IMPACT THE AREA LATE NEXT WEEK. STAY TUNED.

TEMPERATURES NEXT WEEK WILL REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...YOUTUBE...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/TUCSON










000
FXUS65 KTWC 231643
AFDTWC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ
930 AM MST FRI JAN 23 2015

.SYNOPSIS...GUSTY EAST WINDS WILL EASE LATER TODAY. WARMER HIGH
TEMPERATURES TODAY WITH WARMUP TO CONTINUE THIS WEEKEND. A LOW WEST
OF BAJA WILL PUSH MOISTURE NORTH AND BRINGS A THREAT OF SHOWERS TO
SOUTHERN ARIZONA MONDAY INTO EARLY TUESDAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...GUSTY EAST WINDS ONGOING ACROSS SOUTHEAST ARIZONA
SHOULD PERSIST THROUGH THE EARLY AFTERNOON...THEN DECREASE IN THE
VALLEYS BY THE EVENING. THE MOUNTAIN AREAS WILL SEE THE WIND GUSTS
INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS THOUGH.

MY PRIMARY FOCUS FOR THE NEXT SEVEN DAYS IS THE PRECIP CHANCES ON
MONDAY AND TUESDAY...FOLLOWED BY THE END OF THE WEEK SYSTEM.

THE MIDNIGHT SHIFT COMPILED SOME EXCELLENT CLIMATOLOGY INFORMATION
BASED ON THE EXPECTED PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES FOR MONDAY AND
TUESDAY. HERE IS A QUICK RUNDOWN BASED ON PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES
NEAR 1 INCH IN JANUARY...

TUCSON RECEIVED PRECIPITATION NEARLY 80 PERCENT OF THE TIME AND
EXPERIENCED TWO TOP FIVE WETTEST JANUARY DAYS.

DOUGLAS RECEIVED PRECIP NEARLY 70 PERCENT OF THE TIME.

AJO RECEIVED PRECIP A LITTLE LESS FREQUENTLY AT 50 PERCENT...BUT
ALSO EXPERIENCED THE 5TH WETTEST JANUARY DAY ON RECORD.

USING THIS CLIMATOLOGY INFORMATION...ALONG WITH THE LATEST GUIDANCE
OF COURSE...I EXPECT TO INCREASE PRECIP CHANCES FOR TUESDAY MORNING.

I AM STILL NOT SOLD ON A WIDESPREAD HEAVY RAIN EVENT...BUT WE COULD
SEE SOME LOCALIZED MINOR FLOOD CONCERNS. RIGHT NOW...IT JUST LOOKS
LIKE GENERALLY LESS THAN A HALF INCH OF RAIN.

MORE ON THE END OF THE WEEK SYSTEM WITH THE AFTERNOON AFD.

JJB

&&

.AVIATION...VALID THRU 24/12Z.
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL IN AND AROUND THE TERMINALS OVER THE
NEXT 24 HOURS AS AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE CONTINUES TO MOVE EAST OF
THE AREA. EAST WINDS WILL IMPACT MOST AREAS THROUGH THIS MORNING AND
INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS WITH GUSTS UP TO 20 MPH. WINDS
DIMINISHING DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING HOURS.
AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR TAF AMENDMENTS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...BRISK EAST WINDS WILL IMPACT MOST AREAS THROUGH THE
EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS BEFORE DIMINISHING DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON
AND EARLY EVENING...WITH GUSTS DURING THE MORNING AND EARLY
AFTERNOON UP TO 20 MPH. EAST WINDS WILL OCCUR AGAIN SATURDAY WITH
OCCASIONAL GUSTS UP TO 25 TO 30 MPH. DRY AND STABLE WEATHER WILL
BUILD BACK IN WITH WARMING TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

MOISTURE AND THE POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE EARLY
NEXT WEEK AS LOW PRESSURE OFF THE BAJA COAST LIFTS NORTH. THE BEST
CHANCE FOR SHOWERS WILL OCCUR MONDAY NIGHT NEAR THE BORDER WITH
MEXICO.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...GUSTY EAST WINDS WERE STILL OCCURRING THIS
MORNING ACROSS MOST OF SE AZ. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER THE AREA
WILL WEAKEN TODAY AS THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM THAT BROUGHT LIGHT
SHOWERS TO THE FAR EASTERN AREAS ON THURSDAY CONTINUES TO MOVE EAST
ACROSS TEXAS. ELSEWHERE WATER VAPOR IMAGERY THIS MORNING SHOWED A
WEAK TROF MOVING THRU SRN CA WITH HIGH CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH IT
MOVING INTO SW AZ. FOR TODAY EXPECT A MIX OF SUN AND HIGH CLOUDS.
WARMER TODAY WITH THE BIGGEST CHANGE BEING IN THE MOUNTAINS WHERE
HIGHS WILL BE 8-13 DEGREES WARMER THAN THURSDAY WHILE THE VALLEYS
WILL BE 2-4 DEGREES WARMER.

THE WEEKEND LOOKS FABULOUS WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES WARMING BACK INTO
THE 60S AND 70S FOR THE LOWER ELEVATIONS AND 50S AND 60S IN THE
MOUNTAINS.

THE MAIN ITEM TO WATCH OVER THE WEEKEND WILL BE AN AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE DEVELOPING OFF THE BAJA COAST. THIS UPPER LOW WILL GRAB
ONTO TROPICAL MOISTURE THAT IS CURRENTLY SOUTH OF 25N BTWN 115W-125W
AND SPREAD INTO NORTH INTO NORTHERN MEXICO. MOISTURE VALUES WILL BE
ON THE INCREASE FROM THE SOUTH LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY WITH GFS/NAM
MODELS PUSHING PW VALUES OVER 1" WEST OF TUCSON. UPPER DYNAMICS WILL
BE ON THE INCREASE AREA WIDE ON MONDAY WHICH WILL BRING A CHANCE OF
SHOWERS TO THE AREA WITH BEST AREAL COVERAGE OF SHOWERS...AT THIS
TIME...BEING MONDAY EVENING. MADE SOME SLIGHT ADJUSTMENT UPWARD IN
POP FIELDS BUT LIKELY STILL NOT HIGH ENOUGH. PLENTY OF TIME TO TWEAK
THESE VALUES. THIS WILL BE A WARM SYSTEM THUS SNOW LEVELS WILL BE
ABOVE THE MOUNTAIN PEAKS. CAN`T RULE OUT A RUMBLE OR TWO OF THUNDER
BUT WAY TO EARLY TO PINPOINT THE BEST AREA.

DRIER AIR PUSHES IN ON TUESDAY AS THE UPPER LOW LIFTS NE INTO UTAH.
AT THIS TIME TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY LOOK DRY. MAY HAVE ANOTHER
SOUTHERN STREAM SYSTEM IMPACT THE AREA LATE NEXT WEEK. STAY TUNED.

TEMPERATURES NEXT WEEK WILL REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...YOUTUBE...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/TUCSON










000
FXUS65 KPSR 231640
AFDPSR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PHOENIX AZ
940 AM MST FRI JAN 23 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH CLOUDS WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE REGION TODAY. STRONG HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN DURING THE WEEKEND...RESULTING IN SUNNY SKIES
ALONG WITH A WARMING TREND. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL AFFECT THE
AREA NEXT MONDAY...BRINGING AN INCREASE IN MOISTURE AND A CHANCE OF
SHOWERS. IN ITS WAKE...ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND HIGHER THAN
NORMAL HUMIDITIES WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH EVIDENT ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY OVER NORTHERN
BAJA CALIFORNIA THIS MORNING. THERE IS A NEGLIGIBLE INCREASE IN
PRECIPITABLE WATER PRECEDING THIS TROUGH AND NOT SURPRISINGLY...THE
ONLY IMPACT IS A BRIEF INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER ACROSS SOUTHEAST
CALIFORNIA AND SOUTHWEST ARIZONA. NOT MUCH IN THE WAY OF BREEZINESS
EITHER AS WINDS WERE GENERALLY LIGHT/VRB AS OF 1630Z.

FOR THE REST OF TODAY...THE TROUGH WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA
QUICKLY RESULTING IN A BRIEF INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER ACROSS ARIZONA
AND GRADUALLY CLEARING CONDITIONS AROUND BLYTHE/EL CENTRO. POPS
REMAIN AT 0 FOR TODAY INTO TONIGHT. AS FOR TEMPS...HIGHS IN THE
UPPER 60S LOOK LIKE A SAFE BET. BLENDED BIAS CORRECTED GUIDANCE
SUGGESTS HIGHS OF 67 IN PHOENIX AND 69 IN YUMA/EL CENTRO. INHERITED
VALUES WERE VERY CLOSE AND NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES WERE MADE TO THE
FORECAST AT ALL.

&&

.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
SIGNIFICANT WARMING TREND WILL TAKE PLACE THIS WEEKEND AS AN
AMPLIFIED RIDGE IN THE EASTERN PACIFIC MIGRATES EASTWARD ACROSS THE
WESTERN CONUS. A STRONG SURFACE HIGH WILL SUBSEQUENTLY DEVELOP
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES...PRODUCING BREEZY DOWNSLOPE WINDS.
GFS/WRF BUFR SOUNDINGS SUGGEST THE POTENTIAL FOR GUSTS TO 25 MPH
THROUGH MOMENTUM TRANSFER ACROSS THE LOWER DESERTS. TEMPERATURES
OFTEN OVERACHIEVE IN THESE SETUPS DUE TO COMPRESSIONAL WARMING IN
THE LOWER ELEVATIONS AND FORECAST MAXES WERE BUMPED UP ACCORDINGLY.
HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE MID 70S ARE EXPECTED IN THE PHOENIX AREA
SATURDAY INCREASING INTO THE UPPER 70S SUNDAY.

MODELS ARE STILL KEEN ON DEVELOPING A CLOSED LOW OFF THE BAJA
PENINSULA SATURDAY AND DRIFTING IT NORTHWARD WHILE TRANSPORTING
SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE INTO THE DESERT SOUTHWEST MONDAY. LATEST ECMWF
HAS TRENDED EASTWARD AND IS MORE IN LINE WITH THE OPERATIONAL GFS.
QUALITATIVELY SPEAKING...THE GFS AND ECMWF ARE NOW IN VERY GOOD
AGREEMENT. QG-BASED FORCING FOR ASCENT IS UNREMARKABLE
MONDAY...HOWEVER ISENTROPIC ASCENT SUGGESTS SOME POTENTIAL FOR LIGHT
PRECIPITATION LIFTING NORTHWARD MAINLY MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT.

THE AFOREMENTIONED LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO ACCELERATE
NORTHWARD TUESDAY AS THE RIDGE DRIFTS EASTWARD INTO THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS. AFTER SLIGHTLY COOLER CONDITIONS MONDAY...TEMPERATURES WILL
RECOVER TUESDAY IN THE RETURN FLOW. WELL-ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES
AND HIGHER THAN NORMAL HUMIDITIES WILL PREVAIL THROUGH NEXT WEEK AS
THE RIDGE BECOMES REESTABLISHED TO OUR SOUTH ACROSS MEXICO. NEXT
DISCERNIBLE CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION APPEARS TO BE FRIDAY AS A MOIST
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW INCREASES AHEAD OF ANOTHER PACIFIC LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM.

&&

.AVIATION...
SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA INCLUDING KPHX...KIWA AND KSDL...

HIGH CLOUDS WILL INCREASE THROUGHOUT THE MORNING HOURS BECOMING
BROKEN AND LASTING INTO THE EARLY OVERNIGHT BEFORE CLEARING. WINDS
WILL REMAIN LIGHT THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH A MORE DOMINANT DOWNSLOPE
EASTERLY FLOW. SHOULD SEE A FEW HOURS OF LIGHT WESTERLY WINDS LATE
THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING BEFORE SWITCHING BACK TO EASTERLIES.

SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA AND SOUTHWEST ARIZONA INCLUDING KIPL AND KBLH...

SCATTERED TO BROKEN HIGH CLOUDS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON THEN CLEARING
DURING THE EVENING. WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT AND OFTEN VARIABLE
THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING.

AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDED TAFS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL PERSIST THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD AS
SOUTHERLY FLOW TAKES HOLD ACROSS THE DESERT SOUTHWEST. A LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE OUT NORTHWARD OFF THE COAST OF BAJA AND
CALIFORNIA BRINGING CHANCES FOR RAIN ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY AND A
SIGNIFICANT INCREASE IN MOISTURE. MINIMUM HUMIDITIES IN THE TEENS ON
SUNDAY WILL INCREASE STARTING MONDAY AND ONLY DIP INTO THE 25 TO 35
PERCENT RANGE ACROSS THE LOWER DESERTS THROUGH THURSDAY. WITH THE
EXCEPTION OF SOME OCCASIONAL AFTERNOON BREEZINESS...WINDS WILL
REMAIN LIGHT THROUGH THE ENTIRE PERIOD.

&&

.PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

AZ...NONE.

CA...NONE.

&&

$$

VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/PHOENIX

DISCUSSION...LEINS/HIRSCH
AVIATION...KUHLMAN
FIRE WEATHER...KUHLMAN






    US Dept of Commerce
    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration
    National Weather Service
    1325 East West Highway
    Silver Spring, MD 20910
    Page Author: NWS Internet Services Team
Disclaimer
Information Quality
Credits
Glossary
Privacy Policy
Freedom of Information Act (FOIA)
About Us
Career Opportunities