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000
FXUS65 KPSR 311152
AFDPSR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PHOENIX AZ
452 AM MST FRI OCT 31 2014

.UPDATE...UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION...

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ANOTHER DAY OF WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES IS EXPECTED TODAY
UNDER MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES. SIGNIFICANTLY COOLER READINGS ARE THEN
EXPECTED FOR THE WEEKEND... AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AND COLD FRONT
PUSH THROUGH THE DESERT SOUTHWEST. HIGHS IN THE LOWER DESERTS WILL
DROP INTO THE UPPER 70S OR LOW 80S ON SATURDAY AND FALL TO THE LOWER
70S ON SUNDAY. IN ADDITION TO THE COOLER TEMPERATURES...PERIODS OF
BREEZY CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED THROUGHOUT THE WEEKEND. RAIN
CHANCES WILL BE SLIGHT AND CONFINED MOSTLY TO THE HIGHER TERRAIN
EAST OF PHOENIX. A GRADUAL WARMING TREND WILL BEGIN MONDAY INTO THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
STRONG UPPER LEVEL RIDGE THAT LED TO RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES IN
SOME OF THE WARMER DESERT LOCALES YESTERDAY CONTINUED TO SHIFT TO
THE EAST EARLY THIS MORNING...AS A DEEP AND COLD UPPER TROF
APPROACHED THE WEST COAST. A FAIR AMOUNT OF COLD AIR CU WAS VISIBLE
ON IR IMAGERY JUST OFF THE PAC NW/NRN CA COAST...AND WHEN THIS COLD
SYSTEM PASSES THROUGH ARIZONA THIS WEEKEND WE CAN EXPECT HIGH TEMPS
TO FALL 20 DEGREES OR MORE OVER THE LOWER DESERTS. UPPER RIDGE AXIS
HAS ALREADY SHIFTED EAST OF PHOENIX WITH THE AXIS MOVING INTO NEW
MEXICO EARLY THIS MORNING...AND THE INCREASING SWLY FLOW ALOFT WILL
LEAD TO SOME BREEZY CONDITIONS THIS AFTERNOON OVER SERN CA AND THE
WESTERN AZ DESERTS. AT 3 AM VARIABLE AMOUNTS OF HIGH CLOUDS WERE
PUSHING EAST ACROSS THE DESERTS...BUT WE SHOULD SEE SOME CLEARING
THIS MORNING...WITH SKIES BECOMING PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY. LOW LEVEL
WINDS BACKING AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING TROF WILL PULL SOME MOISTURE
INTO FAR EASTERN AZ THIS AFTERNOON...AND 850MB DEWPOINTS WILL
APPROACH 8C ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN EAST OF PHOENIX. AS SUCH WE
HAVE A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY EAST OF GLOBE
DEVELOPING INTO THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING HOURS. AS FAR AS
TEMPS GO...TODAY SHOULD BE THE LAST 90 DEGREE DAY THAT WE SEE THIS
CALENDAR YEAR. 850MB TEMPS WILL STAY ELEVATED...AND WILL ONLY DROP
OFF BY A DEGREE OR SO OVER THE CENTRAL DESERTS. AS SUCH WE WILL CALL
FOR LOW 90S AGAIN OVER THE WARMER WESTERN AND CENTRAL DESERTS WITH A
HIGH OF 92 FORECAST FOR PHOENIX.

MODEL GUIDANCE...INCLUDING GFS ENSEMBLE MEMBERS...REMAIN CONSISTENT
IN CALLING FOR THE DEEP AND COLD TROF TO PUSH ACROSS ARIZONA THIS
WEEKEND...BRINGING MUCH COOLER TEMPS...A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS
ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL AZ...AND BREEZY/LOCALLY WINDY WEATHER ON
SATURDAY. THE TROF WILL MOVE THROUGH AS A SERIES OF WAVES...WITH THE
FIRST WAVE QUICKLY RACING NORTHEASTWARD AND ACROSS THE STATE
SATURDAY. THE FIRST COLD FRONT SATURDAY WILL LEAD TO ABOUT 10
DEGREES OF COOLING TO GO ALONG WITH BREEZY OR LOCALLY WINDY
SOUTHWEST WINDS. MOISTURE AND DYNAMICS WILL BE SOMEWHAT LIMITED SO
PRECIP WILL BE CONFINED TO AREAS MAINLY NORTH AND EAST OF
PHOENIX...ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN...AND POPS WILL STAY MOSTLY
BELOW 15 PERCENT. THE SECOND...AND STRONGER...WAVE MOVES ACROSS
THE STATE SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT...AND THE GFS ACTUALLY DEVELOPS A
CLOSED UPPER LOW THAT TREKS ACROSS NRN AZ DURING THE DAY. STRONGER
DYNAMICS ARE BEING ADVERTISED...AS THE H3 JET DIVES FURTHER TO THE
SOUTH PUTTING SOUTH CENTRAL AZ UNDER THE FAVORED FRONT LEFT QUAD OF
THE JET. ALSO...AN IMPRESSIVE BULLSEYE OF MID LEVEL Q CONVERGENCE IS
FORECAST TO PUSH ACROSS MUCH OF CENTRAL AND NORTHERN AZ. WITH TEMPS
BEING MUCH COOLER RH VALUES WILL BE HIGHER...AND IT WILL BE EASIER
TO WRING SMALLER AMOUNTS OF QPF OUT OF THE ATMOSPHERE. AS SUCH WE
RAISED POPS INTO THE 15-20 PERCENT BALLPARK OVER SOUTH CENTRAL AZ ON
SUNDAY...INCLUDING THE LOWER DESERT AREAS. HIGH TEMPS ARE EXPECTED
TO DROP ANOTHER 10 DEGREES OR SO WITH HIGHS IN THE GREATER PHOENIX
AREA TO FALL TO NEAR 70 DEGREES. THOSE NUMBERS WOULD REPRESENT HIGHS
MORE THAN 10 DEGREES BELOW SEASONAL NORMALS.

BY MONDAY MORNING THE TROF AXIS WILL HAVE SHIFTED SOUTHEAST OF THE
GREATER PHOENIX AREA...PUTTING MOST OF THE CWA UNDER A SUBSIDENT
NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO THIN...WITH SKIES TO
BECOME MOSTLY SUNNY BY EARLY AFTERNOON OVER ALL BUT THE HIGH TERRAIN
OF SRN GILA COUNTY. LITTLE CHANGE IN HIGH TEMPS IS EXPECTED...AS
COOLER AIR CONTINUES TO FILTER OVER THE LOWER DESERTS. THE FORECAST
HIGH FOR PHOENIX MONDAY WILL BE JUST 72 DEGREES.

DRY NORTH TO NORTHEAST FLOW ALOFT CONTINUES ACROSS THE AREA IN THE
WAKE OF THE DEPARTED UPPER TROF ON TUESDAY...FOR GENERALLY SUNNY
SKIES. HIGH TEMPS WILL RISE A FEW DEGREES AS HEIGHTS/THICKNESSES
START TO CLIMB...BUT OVERALL TEMPS WILL STAY BELOW SEASONAL NORMALS
WITH PHOENIX SITTING IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S.

QUITE A BIT OF MODEL UNCERTAINLY DEVELOPING FOR THE LATTER PORTION
OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD. GFS KEEPS HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT IN PLACE
ACROSS THE DESERT SOUTHWEST...AND DEVELOPS A CLOSED LOW WELL OFF TO
THE SOUTHEAST...OVER PORTIONS OF TEXAS AND NRN MEXICO. ON THE OTHER
HAND...THE ECMWF DEVELOPS THAT SAME UPPER LOW MUCH FURTHER TO THE
WEST...AND ACTUALLY MOVES THE LOW CENTER INTO SERN AZ BY WED
AFTERNOON. THE LOW STARTS TO ADVECT QUITE A BIT OF MOISTURE INTO
SERN AZ...SOME OF THAT MOISTURE TROPICAL IN NATURE. VERY LOW
CONFIDENCE IN THE ECMWF SOLUTION AS MODEL RUN TO RUN CONSISTENCY HAS
BEEN VERY LOW. FOR NOW...WILL KEEP A DRY FORECAST IN PLACE ACROSS AZ
FOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...BUT WILL KEEP SOME SINGLE DIGIT POPS IN
PLACE FROM PHOENIX EASTWARD...AND ADD IN SOME CLOUD COVER AS
WELL...IN A NOD TO THE MODEL UNCERTAINTY.

&&

.AVIATION...
SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA INCLUDING KPHX...KIWA AND KSDL...AND
SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA AND SOUTHWEST ARIZONA INCLUDING KIPL AND KBLH...

PERIODIC MID AND HIGH CLOUDS TO AFFECT THE REGION THROUGH THE PERIOD
AS LOW PRESSURE APPROACHES. WINDS ACROSS THE PHOENIX AREA ARE
EXPECTED TO REMAIN OUT OF THE EAST FOR THE MAJORITY OF THE PERIOD
WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF GOING VARIABLE OR SWITCHING OUT OF THE WEST
FOR AN HOUR OR TWO LATE THIS AFTERNOON. WINDS ACROSS SOUTHEAST
CALIFORNIA WILL BECOME BREEZY LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING WITH
GUSTY WESTERLY WINDS AT KIPL LIKELY PERSISTING THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS TONIGHT.

AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDED TAFS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...
SLIGHTLY COOLER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL FILTER INTO THE
DISTRICT THE FIRST PART OF NEXT WEEK...BEFORE MODERATING THE LATTER
HALF OF THE WEEK. OCCASIONALLY GUSTY AFTERNOON NORTHWEST AND WEST
WINDS WILL BE COMMON SUNDAY AND MONDAY...WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 25 MPH
POSSIBLE ALONG RIDGE TOPS AND THROUGH FAVORED RIVER VALLEY
LOCATIONS. MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES WILL INITIALLY HOVER IN
A 20-40 PERCENT RANGE SUNDAY BUT WILL FALL INTO THE TEENS THE
REMAINDER OF THE WEEK AS DRIER AIR GRADUALLY OVERSPREADS THE AREA.
OTHERWISE...OVERNIGHT RECOVERY WILL BE GOOD WITH ONLY MINIMAL
CHANCES OF WETTING RAINS OVER HIGHER TERRAIN EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

AZ...NONE.

CA...NONE.

&&

$$

VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/PHOENIX

DISCUSSION...CB
AVIATION...KUHLMAN
FIRE WEATHER...MO






  [top]

000
FXUS65 KFGZ 311111
AFDFGZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ
402 AM MST FRI OCT 31 2014

.SYNOPSIS...A DEPARTING HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL BRING ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES TO ARIZONA TODAY. BY THIS WEEKEND...WINDY AND COLDER
WEATHER WILL DEVELOP AS A PACIFIC COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH ARIZONA.
THIS SYSTEM WILL BRING A FEW RAIN SHOWERS ON SATURDAY. HIGHER
CHANCES FOR RAIN...AND SNOW ABOVE 7000 FEET ARRIVE LATE SATURDAY
NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING. DRY WEATHER RETURNS BY TUESDAY WITH A
SLOW WARMING TREND.

&&

.DISCUSSION...A DEPARTING HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL BRING WARMER
TEMPERATURES AND BREEZY WINDS TO ARIZONA TODAY. A WEAK PUSH OF LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE MAY BRING AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM TO EASTERN
ARIZONA THIS AFTERNOON. BREEZY WINDS WILL CONTINUE INTO THE EVENING
HOURS KEEPING TEMPERATURES ABOVE NORMAL FOR THE HALLOWEEN EVENING
FESTIVITIES.

STRONG WINDS ARE THE MAIN STORY ON SATURDAY AS THE INITIAL PORTION
OF THE WESTERN TROUGH AFFECTS THE AREA. THE DONEY PARK AREA COULD
SEE WIND GUSTS EXCEEDING 40 MPH AS EARLY AS LATE TONIGHT INTO
SATURDAY MORNING. BY MID MORNING...WIDESPREAD SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST
WINDS OF 15 TO 30 MPH AND GUSTS FROM 35 TO 50 MPH ARE EXPECTED...
WITH THE STRONGEST WINDS ALONG AND NORTH OF THE MOGOLLON RIM. AREAS
OF BLOWING DUST ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE NAVAJO NATION. AS FAR AS
PRECIP GOES THIS WEEKEND...WE WILL HAVE DECENT DYNAMICS AND
INCREASED MOISTURE ALONG AND BEHIND THE COLD FRONT SATURDAY...BUT A
RELATIVELY WARM LAYER ALOFT WILL LIMIT THE CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION.
PRECIP CHANCES ARE GENERALLY AROUND 10 PERCENT SATURDAY FOR MOST OF
THE NORTHLAND...BUT AROUND 40 PERCENT ON THE KAIBAB PLATEAU.

MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT THE MAIN TROUGH AND COLDER AIR
ALOFT WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION LATE SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY
EVENING. THE BEST CHANCE OF SHOWERS WILL BE DURING THIS TIME FRAME
AS MID LEVEL INSTABILITY INCREASES...AND LARGE SCALE LIFT FROM THE
UPPER TROUGH IS FOCUSED ON OUR AREA. SNOW LEVELS COULD FALL TO
AROUND 6500-7000 FEET ON SUNDAY. LIGHT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS ARE
POSSIBLE OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN...GENERALLY AT AND ABOVE 7000
FEET...WITH 1-3 INCHES A POSSIBILITY FOR THE KAIBAB PLATEAU AND THE
SAN FRANCISCO PEAKS. DAYTIME TEMPERATURES SUNDAY WILL BE THE COLDEST
OF THE SEASON SO FAR...NOT GETTING OUT OF THE MID 40S FOR THE
MOUNTAINS.

MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...MODELS HAVE SLOWED THE DEPARTURE OF THE
TROUGH AND COLD AIRMASS OUT OF ARIZONA...SO A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
SHOWERS CONTINUES MONDAY WITH WELL BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES. A SLOW
WARMING TREND IN DAYTIME TEMPERATURES STARTS TUESDAY AND CONTINUES
THROUGH THE WEEK. HOWEVER...OVERNIGHT LOWS ARE LIKELY TO BE THE
COLDEST OF THE YEAR SO FAR...FREEZING TEMPS POSSIBLE DOWN TO THE
4500 FT ELEVATION LEVEL.

&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 12Z PACKAGE...SOUTH WINDS WILL INCREASE AFTER
17Z BECOMING 15-20 KTS WITH GUSTS OF 25-30 KTS. THERE WILL BE A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF -SHRA/-TSRA EAST OF A K0V7-KPAN LINE THIS
AFTERNOON. AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDMENTS.

&&

.FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC.....JJ
AVIATION...KD

FOR NORTHERN ARIZONA WEATHER INFORMATION VISIT
WEATHER.GOV/FLAGSTAFF





000
FXUS65 KPSR 311045 CCA
AFDPSR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED DATE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PHOENIX AZ
345 AM MST FRI OCT 31 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ANOTHER DAY OF WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES IS EXPECTED TODAY
UNDER MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES. SIGNIFICANTLY COOLER READINGS ARE THEN
EXPECTED FOR THE WEEKEND... AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AND COLD FRONT
PUSH THROUGH THE DESERT SOUTHWEST. HIGHS IN THE LOWER DESERTS WILL
DROP INTO THE UPPER 70S OR LOW 80S ON SATURDAY AND FALL TO THE LOWER
70S ON SUNDAY. IN ADDITION TO THE COOLER TEMPERATURES...PERIODS OF
BREEZY CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED THROUGHOUT THE WEEKEND. RAIN
CHANCES WILL BE SLIGHT AND CONFINED MOSTLY TO THE HIGHER TERRAIN
EAST OF PHOENIX. A GRADUAL WARMING TREND WILL BEGIN MONDAY INTO THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
STRONG UPPER LEVEL RIDGE THAT LED TO RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES IN
SOME OF THE WARMER DESERT LOCALES YESTERDAY CONTINUED TO SHIFT TO
THE EAST EARLY THIS MORNING...AS A DEEP AND COLD UPPER TROF
APPROACHED THE WEST COAST. A FAIR AMOUNT OF COLD AIR CU WAS VISIBLE
ON IR IMAGERY JUST OFF THE PAC NW/NRN CA COAST...AND WHEN THIS COLD
SYSTEM PASSES THROUGH ARIZONA THIS WEEKEND WE CAN EXPECT HIGH TEMPS
TO FALL 20 DEGREES OR MORE OVER THE LOWER DESERTS. UPPER RIDGE AXIS
HAS ALREADY SHIFTED EAST OF PHOENIX WITH THE AXIS MOVING INTO NEW
MEXICO EARLY THIS MORNING...AND THE INCREASING SWLY FLOW ALOFT WILL
LEAD TO SOME BREEZY CONDITIONS THIS AFTERNOON OVER SERN CA AND THE
WESTERN AZ DESERTS. AT 3 AM VARIABLE AMOUNTS OF HIGH CLOUDS WERE
PUSHING EAST ACROSS THE DESERTS...BUT WE SHOULD SEE SOME CLEARING
THIS MORNING...WITH SKIES BECOMING PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY. LOW LEVEL
WINDS BACKING AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING TROF WILL PULL SOME MOISTURE
INTO FAR EASTERN AZ THIS AFTERNOON...AND 850MB DEWPOINTS WILL
APPROACH 8C ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN EAST OF PHOENIX. AS SUCH WE
HAVE A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY EAST OF GLOBE
DEVELOPING INTO THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING HOURS. AS FAR AS
TEMPS GO...TODAY SHOULD BE THE LAST 90 DEGREE DAY THAT WE SEE THIS
CALENDAR YEAR. 850MB TEMPS WILL STAY ELEVATED...AND WILL ONLY DROP
OFF BY A DEGREE OR SO OVER THE CENTRAL DESERTS. AS SUCH WE WILL CALL
FOR LOW 90S AGAIN OVER THE WARMER WESTERN AND CENTRAL DESERTS WITH A
HIGH OF 92 FORECAST FOR PHOENIX.

MODEL GUIDANCE...INCLUDING GFS ENSEMBLE MEMBERS...REMAIN CONSISTENT
IN CALLING FOR THE DEEP AND COLD TROF TO PUSH ACROSS ARIZONA THIS
WEEKEND...BRINGING MUCH COOLER TEMPS...A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS
ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL AZ...AND BREEZY/LOCALLY WINDY WEATHER ON
SATURDAY. THE TROF WILL MOVE THROUGH AS A SERIES OF WAVES...WITH THE
FIRST WAVE QUICKLY RACING NORTHEASTWARD AND ACROSS THE STATE
SATURDAY. THE FIRST COLD FRONT SATURDAY WILL LEAD TO ABOUT 10
DEGREES OF COOLING TO GO ALONG WITH BREEZY OR LOCALLY WINDY
SOUTHWEST WINDS. MOISTURE AND DYNAMICS WILL BE SOMEWHAT LIMITED SO
PRECIP WILL BE CONFINED TO AREAS MAINLY NORTH AND EAST OF
PHOENIX...ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN...AND POPS WILL STAY MOSTLY
BELOW 15 PERCENT. THE SECOND...AND STRONGER...WAVE MOVES ACROSS
THE STATE SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT...AND THE GFS ACTUALLY DEVELOPS A
CLOSED UPPER LOW THAT TREKS ACROSS NRN AZ DURING THE DAY. STRONGER
DYNAMICS ARE BEING ADVERTISED...AS THE H3 JET DIVES FURTHER TO THE
SOUTH PUTTING SOUTH CENTRAL AZ UNDER THE FAVORED FRONT LEFT QUAD OF
THE JET. ALSO...AN IMPRESSIVE BULLSEYE OF MID LEVEL Q CONVERGENCE IS
FORECAST TO PUSH ACROSS MUCH OF CENTRAL AND NORTHERN AZ. WITH TEMPS
BEING MUCH COOLER RH VALUES WILL BE HIGHER...AND IT WILL BE EASIER
TO WRING SMALLER AMOUNTS OF QPF OUT OF THE ATMOSPHERE. AS SUCH WE
RAISED POPS INTO THE 15-20 PERCENT BALLPARK OVER SOUTH CENTRAL AZ ON
SUNDAY...INCLUDING THE LOWER DESERT AREAS. HIGH TEMPS ARE EXPECTED
TO DROP ANOTHER 10 DEGREES OR SO WITH HIGHS IN THE GREATER PHOENIX
AREA TO FALL TO NEAR 70 DEGREES. THOSE NUMBERS WOULD REPRESENT HIGHS
MORE THAN 10 DEGREES BELOW SEASONAL NORMALS.

BY MONDAY MORNING THE TROF AXIS WILL HAVE SHIFTED SOUTHEAST OF THE
GREATER PHOENIX AREA...PUTTING MOST OF THE CWA UNDER A SUBSIDENT
NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO THIN...WITH SKIES TO
BECOME MOSTLY SUNNY BY EARLY AFTERNOON OVER ALL BUT THE HIGH TERRAIN
OF SRN GILA COUNTY. LITTLE CHANGE IN HIGH TEMPS IS EXPECTED...AS
COOLER AIR CONTINUES TO FILTER OVER THE LOWER DESERTS. THE FORECAST
HIGH FOR PHOENIX MONDAY WILL BE JUST 72 DEGREES.

DRY NORTH TO NORTHEAST FLOW ALOFT CONTINUES ACROSS THE AREA IN THE
WAKE OF THE DEPARTED UPPER TROF ON TUESDAY...FOR GENERALLY SUNNY
SKIES. HIGH TEMPS WILL RISE A FEW DEGREES AS HEIGHTS/THICKNESSES
START TO CLIMB...BUT OVERALL TEMPS WILL STAY BELOW SEASONAL NORMALS
WITH PHOENIX SITTING IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S.

QUITE A BIT OF MODEL UNCERTAINLY DEVELOPING FOR THE LATTER PORTION
OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD. GFS KEEPS HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT IN PLACE
ACROSS THE DESERT SOUTHWEST...AND DEVELOPS A CLOSED LOW WELL OFF TO
THE SOUTHEAST...OVER PORTIONS OF TEXAS AND NRN MEXICO. ON THE OTHER
HAND...THE ECMWF DEVELOPS THAT SAME UPPER LOW MUCH FURTHER TO THE
WEST...AND ACTUALLY MOVES THE LOW CENTER INTO SERN AZ BY WED
AFTERNOON. THE LOW STARTS TO ADVECT QUITE A BIT OF MOISTURE INTO
SERN AZ...SOME OF THAT MOISTURE TROPICAL IN NATURE. VERY LOW
CONFIDENCE IN THE ECMWF SOLUTION AS MODEL RUN TO RUN CONSISTENCY HAS
BEEN VERY LOW. FOR NOW...WILL KEEP A DRY FORECAST IN PLACE ACROSS AZ
FOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...BUT WILL KEEP SOME SINGLE DIGIT POPS IN
PLACE FROM PHOENIX EASTWARD...AND ADD IN SOME CLOUD COVER AS
WELL...IN A NOD TO THE MODEL UNCERTAINTY.

&&

.AVIATION...
SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA INCLUDING KPHX...KIWA AND KSDL...AND
SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA AND SOUTHWEST ARIZONA INCLUDING KIPL AND KBLH...

THROUGH 19Z FRI...VRBL CLOUDS AOA 25 THSD MSL. LIGHT WIND UNDER 8
KNOTS...HOWEVER SOUTH WIND INCREASING ALONG THE COLORADO RIVER
VALLEY AFTER 17Z FRI INTO THE 10 TO 15 KNOT RANGE.

AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDED TAFS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...
SLIGHTLY COOLER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL FILTER INTO THE
DISTRICT THE FIRST PART OF NEXT WEEK...BEFORE MODERATING THE LATTER
HALF OF THE WEEK. OCCASIONALLY GUSTY AFTERNOON NORTHWEST AND WEST
WINDS WILL BE COMMON SUNDAY AND MONDAY...WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 25 MPH
POSSIBLE ALONG RIDGE TOPS AND THROUGH FAVORED RIVER VALLEY
LOCATIONS. MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES WILL INITIALLY HOVER IN
A 20-40 PERCENT RANGE SUNDAY BUT WILL FALL INTO THE TEENS THE
REMAINDER OF THE WEEK AS DRIER AIR GRADUALLY OVERSPREADS THE AREA.
OTHERWISE...OVERNIGHT RECOVERY WILL BE GOOD WITH ONLY MINIMAL
CHANCES OF WETTING RAINS OVER HIGHER TERRAIN EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

AZ...NONE.

CA...NONE.

&&

$$

VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/PHOENIX

DISCUSSION...CB
AVIATION...VASQUEZ
FIRE WEATHER...MO




















000
FXUS65 KPSR 311045
AFDPSR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PHOENIX AZ
345 AM MST THU OCT 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ANOTHER DAY OF WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES IS EXPECTED TODAY
UNDER MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES. SIGNIFICANTLY COOLER READINGS ARE THEN
EXPECTED FOR THE WEEKEND... AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AND COLD FRONT
PUSH THROUGH THE DESERT SOUTHWEST. HIGHS IN THE LOWER DESERTS WILL
DROP INTO THE UPPER 70S OR LOW 80S ON SATURDAY AND FALL TO THE LOWER
70S ON SUNDAY. IN ADDITION TO THE COOLER TEMPERATURES...PERIODS OF
BREEZY CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED THROUGHOUT THE WEEKEND. RAIN
CHANCES WILL BE SLIGHT AND CONFINED MOSTLY TO THE HIGHER TERRAIN
EAST OF PHOENIX. A GRADUAL WARMING TREND WILL BEGIN MONDAY INTO THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
STRONG UPPER LEVEL RIDGE THAT LED TO RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES IN
SOME OF THE WARMER DESERT LOCALES YESTERDAY CONTINUED TO SHIFT TO
THE EAST EARLY THIS MORNING...AS A DEEP AND COLD UPPER TROF
APPROACHED THE WEST COAST. A FAIR AMOUNT OF COLD AIR CU WAS VISIBLE
ON IR IMAGERY JUST OFF THE PAC NW/NRN CA COAST...AND WHEN THIS COLD
SYSTEM PASSES THROUGH ARIZONA THIS WEEKEND WE CAN EXPECT HIGH TEMPS
TO FALL 20 DEGREES OR MORE OVER THE LOWER DESERTS. UPPER RIDGE AXIS
HAS ALREADY SHIFTED EAST OF PHOENIX WITH THE AXIS MOVING INTO NEW
MEXICO EARLY THIS MORNING...AND THE INCREASING SWLY FLOW ALOFT WILL
LEAD TO SOME BREEZY CONDITIONS THIS AFTERNOON OVER SERN CA AND THE
WESTERN AZ DESERTS. AT 3 AM VARIABLE AMOUNTS OF HIGH CLOUDS WERE
PUSHING EAST ACROSS THE DESERTS...BUT WE SHOULD SEE SOME CLEARING
THIS MORNING...WITH SKIES BECOMING PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY. LOW LEVEL
WINDS BACKING AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING TROF WILL PULL SOME MOISTURE
INTO FAR EASTERN AZ THIS AFTERNOON...AND 850MB DEWPOINTS WILL
APPROACH 8C ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN EAST OF PHOENIX. AS SUCH WE
HAVE A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY EAST OF GLOBE
DEVELOPING INTO THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING HOURS. AS FAR AS
TEMPS GO...TODAY SHOULD BE THE LAST 90 DEGREE DAY THAT WE SEE THIS
CALENDAR YEAR. 850MB TEMPS WILL STAY ELEVATED...AND WILL ONLY DROP
OFF BY A DEGREE OR SO OVER THE CENTRAL DESERTS. AS SUCH WE WILL CALL
FOR LOW 90S AGAIN OVER THE WARMER WESTERN AND CENTRAL DESERTS WITH A
HIGH OF 92 FORECAST FOR PHOENIX.

MODEL GUIDANCE...INCLUDING GFS ENSEMBLE MEMBERS...REMAIN CONSISTENT
IN CALLING FOR THE DEEP AND COLD TROF TO PUSH ACROSS ARIZONA THIS
WEEKEND...BRINGING MUCH COOLER TEMPS...A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS
ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL AZ...AND BREEZY/LOCALLY WINDY WEATHER ON
SATURDAY. THE TROF WILL MOVE THROUGH AS A SERIES OF WAVES...WITH THE
FIRST WAVE QUICKLY RACING NORTHEASTWARD AND ACROSS THE STATE
SATURDAY. THE FIRST COLD FRONT SATURDAY WILL LEAD TO ABOUT 10
DEGREES OF COOLING TO GO ALONG WITH BREEZY OR LOCALLY WINDY
SOUTHWEST WINDS. MOISTURE AND DYNAMICS WILL BE SOMEWHAT LIMITED SO
PRECIP WILL BE CONFINED TO AREAS MAINLY NORTH AND EAST OF
PHOENIX...ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN...AND POPS WILL STAY MOSTLY
BELOW 15 PERCENT. THE SECOND...AND STRONGER...WAVE MOVES ACROSS
THE STATE SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT...AND THE GFS ACTUALLY DEVELOPS A
CLOSED UPPER LOW THAT TREKS ACROSS NRN AZ DURING THE DAY. STRONGER
DYNAMICS ARE BEING ADVERTISED...AS THE H3 JET DIVES FURTHER TO THE
SOUTH PUTTING SOUTH CENTRAL AZ UNDER THE FAVORED FRONT LEFT QUAD OF
THE JET. ALSO...AN IMPRESSIVE BULLSEYE OF MID LEVEL Q CONVERGENCE IS
FORECAST TO PUSH ACROSS MUCH OF CENTRAL AND NORTHERN AZ. WITH TEMPS
BEING MUCH COOLER RH VALUES WILL BE HIGHER...AND IT WILL BE EASIER
TO WRING SMALLER AMOUNTS OF QPF OUT OF THE ATMOSPHERE. AS SUCH WE
RAISED POPS INTO THE 15-20 PERCENT BALLPARK OVER SOUTH CENTRAL AZ ON
SUNDAY...INCLUDING THE LOWER DESERT AREAS. HIGH TEMPS ARE EXPECTED
TO DROP ANOTHER 10 DEGREES OR SO WITH HIGHS IN THE GREATER PHOENIX
AREA TO FALL TO NEAR 70 DEGREES. THOSE NUMBERS WOULD REPRESENT HIGHS
MORE THAN 10 DEGREES BELOW SEASONAL NORMALS.

BY MONDAY MORNING THE TROF AXIS WILL HAVE SHIFTED SOUTHEAST OF THE
GREATER PHOENIX AREA...PUTTING MOST OF THE CWA UNDER A SUBSIDENT
NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO THIN...WITH SKIES TO
BECOME MOSTLY SUNNY BY EARLY AFTERNOON OVER ALL BUT THE HIGH TERRAIN
OF SRN GILA COUNTY. LITTLE CHANGE IN HIGH TEMPS IS EXPECTED...AS
COOLER AIR CONTINUES TO FILTER OVER THE LOWER DESERTS. THE FORECAST
HIGH FOR PHOENIX MONDAY WILL BE JUST 72 DEGREES.

DRY NORTH TO NORTHEAST FLOW ALOFT CONTINUES ACROSS THE AREA IN THE
WAKE OF THE DEPARTED UPPER TROF ON TUESDAY...FOR GENERALLY SUNNY
SKIES. HIGH TEMPS WILL RISE A FEW DEGREES AS HEIGHTS/THICKNESSES
START TO CLIMB...BUT OVERALL TEMPS WILL STAY BELOW SEASONAL NORMALS
WITH PHOENIX SITTING IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S.

QUITE A BIT OF MODEL UNCERTAINLY DEVELOPING FOR THE LATTER PORTION
OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD. GFS KEEPS HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT IN PLACE
ACROSS THE DESERT SOUTHWEST...AND DEVELOPS A CLOSED LOW WELL OFF TO
THE SOUTHEAST...OVER PORTIONS OF TEXAS AND NRN MEXICO. ON THE OTHER
HAND...THE ECMWF DEVELOPS THAT SAME UPPER LOW MUCH FURTHER TO THE
WEST...AND ACTUALLY MOVES THE LOW CENTER INTO SERN AZ BY WED
AFTERNOON. THE LOW STARTS TO ADVECT QUITE A BIT OF MOISTURE INTO
SERN AZ...SOME OF THAT MOISTURE TROPICAL IN NATURE. VERY LOW
CONFIDENCE IN THE ECMWF SOLUTION AS MODEL RUN TO RUN CONSISTENCY HAS
BEEN VERY LOW. FOR NOW...WILL KEEP A DRY FORECAST IN PLACE ACROSS AZ
FOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...BUT WILL KEEP SOME SINGLE DIGIT POPS IN
PLACE FROM PHOENIX EASTWARD...AND ADD IN SOME CLOUD COVER AS
WELL...IN A NOD TO THE MODEL UNCERTAINTY.

&&

.AVIATION...
SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA INCLUDING KPHX...KIWA AND KSDL...AND
SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA AND SOUTHWEST ARIZONA INCLUDING KIPL AND KBLH...

THROUGH 19Z FRI...VRBL CLOUDS AOA 25 THSD MSL. LIGHT WIND UNDER 8
KNOTS...HOWEVER SOUTH WIND INCREASING ALONG THE COLORADO RIVER
VALLEY AFTER 17Z FRI INTO THE 10 TO 15 KNOT RANGE.

AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDED TAFS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...
SLIGHTLY COOLER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL FILTER INTO THE
DISTRICT THE FIRST PART OF NEXT WEEK...BEFORE MODERATING THE LATTER
HALF OF THE WEEK. OCCASIONALLY GUSTY AFTERNOON NORTHWEST AND WEST
WINDS WILL BE COMMON SUNDAY AND MONDAY...WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 25 MPH
POSSIBLE ALONG RIDGE TOPS AND THROUGH FAVORED RIVER VALLEY
LOCATIONS. MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES WILL INITIALLY HOVER IN
A 20-40 PERCENT RANGE SUNDAY BUT WILL FALL INTO THE TEENS THE
REMAINDER OF THE WEEK AS DRIER AIR GRADUALLY OVERSPREADS THE AREA.
OTHERWISE...OVERNIGHT RECOVERY WILL BE GOOD WITH ONLY MINIMAL
CHANCES OF WETTING RAINS OVER HIGHER TERRAIN EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

AZ...NONE.

CA...NONE.

&&

$$

VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/PHOENIX

DISCUSSION...CB
AVIATION...VASQUEZ
FIRE WEATHER...MO



















000
FXUS65 KPSR 311045
AFDPSR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PHOENIX AZ
345 AM MST THU OCT 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ANOTHER DAY OF WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES IS EXPECTED TODAY
UNDER MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES. SIGNIFICANTLY COOLER READINGS ARE THEN
EXPECTED FOR THE WEEKEND... AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AND COLD FRONT
PUSH THROUGH THE DESERT SOUTHWEST. HIGHS IN THE LOWER DESERTS WILL
DROP INTO THE UPPER 70S OR LOW 80S ON SATURDAY AND FALL TO THE LOWER
70S ON SUNDAY. IN ADDITION TO THE COOLER TEMPERATURES...PERIODS OF
BREEZY CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED THROUGHOUT THE WEEKEND. RAIN
CHANCES WILL BE SLIGHT AND CONFINED MOSTLY TO THE HIGHER TERRAIN
EAST OF PHOENIX. A GRADUAL WARMING TREND WILL BEGIN MONDAY INTO THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
STRONG UPPER LEVEL RIDGE THAT LED TO RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES IN
SOME OF THE WARMER DESERT LOCALES YESTERDAY CONTINUED TO SHIFT TO
THE EAST EARLY THIS MORNING...AS A DEEP AND COLD UPPER TROF
APPROACHED THE WEST COAST. A FAIR AMOUNT OF COLD AIR CU WAS VISIBLE
ON IR IMAGERY JUST OFF THE PAC NW/NRN CA COAST...AND WHEN THIS COLD
SYSTEM PASSES THROUGH ARIZONA THIS WEEKEND WE CAN EXPECT HIGH TEMPS
TO FALL 20 DEGREES OR MORE OVER THE LOWER DESERTS. UPPER RIDGE AXIS
HAS ALREADY SHIFTED EAST OF PHOENIX WITH THE AXIS MOVING INTO NEW
MEXICO EARLY THIS MORNING...AND THE INCREASING SWLY FLOW ALOFT WILL
LEAD TO SOME BREEZY CONDITIONS THIS AFTERNOON OVER SERN CA AND THE
WESTERN AZ DESERTS. AT 3 AM VARIABLE AMOUNTS OF HIGH CLOUDS WERE
PUSHING EAST ACROSS THE DESERTS...BUT WE SHOULD SEE SOME CLEARING
THIS MORNING...WITH SKIES BECOMING PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY. LOW LEVEL
WINDS BACKING AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING TROF WILL PULL SOME MOISTURE
INTO FAR EASTERN AZ THIS AFTERNOON...AND 850MB DEWPOINTS WILL
APPROACH 8C ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN EAST OF PHOENIX. AS SUCH WE
HAVE A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY EAST OF GLOBE
DEVELOPING INTO THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING HOURS. AS FAR AS
TEMPS GO...TODAY SHOULD BE THE LAST 90 DEGREE DAY THAT WE SEE THIS
CALENDAR YEAR. 850MB TEMPS WILL STAY ELEVATED...AND WILL ONLY DROP
OFF BY A DEGREE OR SO OVER THE CENTRAL DESERTS. AS SUCH WE WILL CALL
FOR LOW 90S AGAIN OVER THE WARMER WESTERN AND CENTRAL DESERTS WITH A
HIGH OF 92 FORECAST FOR PHOENIX.

MODEL GUIDANCE...INCLUDING GFS ENSEMBLE MEMBERS...REMAIN CONSISTENT
IN CALLING FOR THE DEEP AND COLD TROF TO PUSH ACROSS ARIZONA THIS
WEEKEND...BRINGING MUCH COOLER TEMPS...A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS
ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL AZ...AND BREEZY/LOCALLY WINDY WEATHER ON
SATURDAY. THE TROF WILL MOVE THROUGH AS A SERIES OF WAVES...WITH THE
FIRST WAVE QUICKLY RACING NORTHEASTWARD AND ACROSS THE STATE
SATURDAY. THE FIRST COLD FRONT SATURDAY WILL LEAD TO ABOUT 10
DEGREES OF COOLING TO GO ALONG WITH BREEZY OR LOCALLY WINDY
SOUTHWEST WINDS. MOISTURE AND DYNAMICS WILL BE SOMEWHAT LIMITED SO
PRECIP WILL BE CONFINED TO AREAS MAINLY NORTH AND EAST OF
PHOENIX...ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN...AND POPS WILL STAY MOSTLY
BELOW 15 PERCENT. THE SECOND...AND STRONGER...WAVE MOVES ACROSS
THE STATE SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT...AND THE GFS ACTUALLY DEVELOPS A
CLOSED UPPER LOW THAT TREKS ACROSS NRN AZ DURING THE DAY. STRONGER
DYNAMICS ARE BEING ADVERTISED...AS THE H3 JET DIVES FURTHER TO THE
SOUTH PUTTING SOUTH CENTRAL AZ UNDER THE FAVORED FRONT LEFT QUAD OF
THE JET. ALSO...AN IMPRESSIVE BULLSEYE OF MID LEVEL Q CONVERGENCE IS
FORECAST TO PUSH ACROSS MUCH OF CENTRAL AND NORTHERN AZ. WITH TEMPS
BEING MUCH COOLER RH VALUES WILL BE HIGHER...AND IT WILL BE EASIER
TO WRING SMALLER AMOUNTS OF QPF OUT OF THE ATMOSPHERE. AS SUCH WE
RAISED POPS INTO THE 15-20 PERCENT BALLPARK OVER SOUTH CENTRAL AZ ON
SUNDAY...INCLUDING THE LOWER DESERT AREAS. HIGH TEMPS ARE EXPECTED
TO DROP ANOTHER 10 DEGREES OR SO WITH HIGHS IN THE GREATER PHOENIX
AREA TO FALL TO NEAR 70 DEGREES. THOSE NUMBERS WOULD REPRESENT HIGHS
MORE THAN 10 DEGREES BELOW SEASONAL NORMALS.

BY MONDAY MORNING THE TROF AXIS WILL HAVE SHIFTED SOUTHEAST OF THE
GREATER PHOENIX AREA...PUTTING MOST OF THE CWA UNDER A SUBSIDENT
NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO THIN...WITH SKIES TO
BECOME MOSTLY SUNNY BY EARLY AFTERNOON OVER ALL BUT THE HIGH TERRAIN
OF SRN GILA COUNTY. LITTLE CHANGE IN HIGH TEMPS IS EXPECTED...AS
COOLER AIR CONTINUES TO FILTER OVER THE LOWER DESERTS. THE FORECAST
HIGH FOR PHOENIX MONDAY WILL BE JUST 72 DEGREES.

DRY NORTH TO NORTHEAST FLOW ALOFT CONTINUES ACROSS THE AREA IN THE
WAKE OF THE DEPARTED UPPER TROF ON TUESDAY...FOR GENERALLY SUNNY
SKIES. HIGH TEMPS WILL RISE A FEW DEGREES AS HEIGHTS/THICKNESSES
START TO CLIMB...BUT OVERALL TEMPS WILL STAY BELOW SEASONAL NORMALS
WITH PHOENIX SITTING IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S.

QUITE A BIT OF MODEL UNCERTAINLY DEVELOPING FOR THE LATTER PORTION
OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD. GFS KEEPS HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT IN PLACE
ACROSS THE DESERT SOUTHWEST...AND DEVELOPS A CLOSED LOW WELL OFF TO
THE SOUTHEAST...OVER PORTIONS OF TEXAS AND NRN MEXICO. ON THE OTHER
HAND...THE ECMWF DEVELOPS THAT SAME UPPER LOW MUCH FURTHER TO THE
WEST...AND ACTUALLY MOVES THE LOW CENTER INTO SERN AZ BY WED
AFTERNOON. THE LOW STARTS TO ADVECT QUITE A BIT OF MOISTURE INTO
SERN AZ...SOME OF THAT MOISTURE TROPICAL IN NATURE. VERY LOW
CONFIDENCE IN THE ECMWF SOLUTION AS MODEL RUN TO RUN CONSISTENCY HAS
BEEN VERY LOW. FOR NOW...WILL KEEP A DRY FORECAST IN PLACE ACROSS AZ
FOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...BUT WILL KEEP SOME SINGLE DIGIT POPS IN
PLACE FROM PHOENIX EASTWARD...AND ADD IN SOME CLOUD COVER AS
WELL...IN A NOD TO THE MODEL UNCERTAINTY.

&&

.AVIATION...
SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA INCLUDING KPHX...KIWA AND KSDL...AND
SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA AND SOUTHWEST ARIZONA INCLUDING KIPL AND KBLH...

THROUGH 19Z FRI...VRBL CLOUDS AOA 25 THSD MSL. LIGHT WIND UNDER 8
KNOTS...HOWEVER SOUTH WIND INCREASING ALONG THE COLORADO RIVER
VALLEY AFTER 17Z FRI INTO THE 10 TO 15 KNOT RANGE.

AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDED TAFS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...
SLIGHTLY COOLER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL FILTER INTO THE
DISTRICT THE FIRST PART OF NEXT WEEK...BEFORE MODERATING THE LATTER
HALF OF THE WEEK. OCCASIONALLY GUSTY AFTERNOON NORTHWEST AND WEST
WINDS WILL BE COMMON SUNDAY AND MONDAY...WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 25 MPH
POSSIBLE ALONG RIDGE TOPS AND THROUGH FAVORED RIVER VALLEY
LOCATIONS. MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES WILL INITIALLY HOVER IN
A 20-40 PERCENT RANGE SUNDAY BUT WILL FALL INTO THE TEENS THE
REMAINDER OF THE WEEK AS DRIER AIR GRADUALLY OVERSPREADS THE AREA.
OTHERWISE...OVERNIGHT RECOVERY WILL BE GOOD WITH ONLY MINIMAL
CHANCES OF WETTING RAINS OVER HIGHER TERRAIN EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

AZ...NONE.

CA...NONE.

&&

$$

VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/PHOENIX

DISCUSSION...CB
AVIATION...VASQUEZ
FIRE WEATHER...MO



















000
FXUS65 KPSR 311045 CCA
AFDPSR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED DATE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PHOENIX AZ
345 AM MST FRI OCT 31 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ANOTHER DAY OF WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES IS EXPECTED TODAY
UNDER MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES. SIGNIFICANTLY COOLER READINGS ARE THEN
EXPECTED FOR THE WEEKEND... AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AND COLD FRONT
PUSH THROUGH THE DESERT SOUTHWEST. HIGHS IN THE LOWER DESERTS WILL
DROP INTO THE UPPER 70S OR LOW 80S ON SATURDAY AND FALL TO THE LOWER
70S ON SUNDAY. IN ADDITION TO THE COOLER TEMPERATURES...PERIODS OF
BREEZY CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED THROUGHOUT THE WEEKEND. RAIN
CHANCES WILL BE SLIGHT AND CONFINED MOSTLY TO THE HIGHER TERRAIN
EAST OF PHOENIX. A GRADUAL WARMING TREND WILL BEGIN MONDAY INTO THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
STRONG UPPER LEVEL RIDGE THAT LED TO RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES IN
SOME OF THE WARMER DESERT LOCALES YESTERDAY CONTINUED TO SHIFT TO
THE EAST EARLY THIS MORNING...AS A DEEP AND COLD UPPER TROF
APPROACHED THE WEST COAST. A FAIR AMOUNT OF COLD AIR CU WAS VISIBLE
ON IR IMAGERY JUST OFF THE PAC NW/NRN CA COAST...AND WHEN THIS COLD
SYSTEM PASSES THROUGH ARIZONA THIS WEEKEND WE CAN EXPECT HIGH TEMPS
TO FALL 20 DEGREES OR MORE OVER THE LOWER DESERTS. UPPER RIDGE AXIS
HAS ALREADY SHIFTED EAST OF PHOENIX WITH THE AXIS MOVING INTO NEW
MEXICO EARLY THIS MORNING...AND THE INCREASING SWLY FLOW ALOFT WILL
LEAD TO SOME BREEZY CONDITIONS THIS AFTERNOON OVER SERN CA AND THE
WESTERN AZ DESERTS. AT 3 AM VARIABLE AMOUNTS OF HIGH CLOUDS WERE
PUSHING EAST ACROSS THE DESERTS...BUT WE SHOULD SEE SOME CLEARING
THIS MORNING...WITH SKIES BECOMING PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY. LOW LEVEL
WINDS BACKING AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING TROF WILL PULL SOME MOISTURE
INTO FAR EASTERN AZ THIS AFTERNOON...AND 850MB DEWPOINTS WILL
APPROACH 8C ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN EAST OF PHOENIX. AS SUCH WE
HAVE A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY EAST OF GLOBE
DEVELOPING INTO THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING HOURS. AS FAR AS
TEMPS GO...TODAY SHOULD BE THE LAST 90 DEGREE DAY THAT WE SEE THIS
CALENDAR YEAR. 850MB TEMPS WILL STAY ELEVATED...AND WILL ONLY DROP
OFF BY A DEGREE OR SO OVER THE CENTRAL DESERTS. AS SUCH WE WILL CALL
FOR LOW 90S AGAIN OVER THE WARMER WESTERN AND CENTRAL DESERTS WITH A
HIGH OF 92 FORECAST FOR PHOENIX.

MODEL GUIDANCE...INCLUDING GFS ENSEMBLE MEMBERS...REMAIN CONSISTENT
IN CALLING FOR THE DEEP AND COLD TROF TO PUSH ACROSS ARIZONA THIS
WEEKEND...BRINGING MUCH COOLER TEMPS...A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS
ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL AZ...AND BREEZY/LOCALLY WINDY WEATHER ON
SATURDAY. THE TROF WILL MOVE THROUGH AS A SERIES OF WAVES...WITH THE
FIRST WAVE QUICKLY RACING NORTHEASTWARD AND ACROSS THE STATE
SATURDAY. THE FIRST COLD FRONT SATURDAY WILL LEAD TO ABOUT 10
DEGREES OF COOLING TO GO ALONG WITH BREEZY OR LOCALLY WINDY
SOUTHWEST WINDS. MOISTURE AND DYNAMICS WILL BE SOMEWHAT LIMITED SO
PRECIP WILL BE CONFINED TO AREAS MAINLY NORTH AND EAST OF
PHOENIX...ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN...AND POPS WILL STAY MOSTLY
BELOW 15 PERCENT. THE SECOND...AND STRONGER...WAVE MOVES ACROSS
THE STATE SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT...AND THE GFS ACTUALLY DEVELOPS A
CLOSED UPPER LOW THAT TREKS ACROSS NRN AZ DURING THE DAY. STRONGER
DYNAMICS ARE BEING ADVERTISED...AS THE H3 JET DIVES FURTHER TO THE
SOUTH PUTTING SOUTH CENTRAL AZ UNDER THE FAVORED FRONT LEFT QUAD OF
THE JET. ALSO...AN IMPRESSIVE BULLSEYE OF MID LEVEL Q CONVERGENCE IS
FORECAST TO PUSH ACROSS MUCH OF CENTRAL AND NORTHERN AZ. WITH TEMPS
BEING MUCH COOLER RH VALUES WILL BE HIGHER...AND IT WILL BE EASIER
TO WRING SMALLER AMOUNTS OF QPF OUT OF THE ATMOSPHERE. AS SUCH WE
RAISED POPS INTO THE 15-20 PERCENT BALLPARK OVER SOUTH CENTRAL AZ ON
SUNDAY...INCLUDING THE LOWER DESERT AREAS. HIGH TEMPS ARE EXPECTED
TO DROP ANOTHER 10 DEGREES OR SO WITH HIGHS IN THE GREATER PHOENIX
AREA TO FALL TO NEAR 70 DEGREES. THOSE NUMBERS WOULD REPRESENT HIGHS
MORE THAN 10 DEGREES BELOW SEASONAL NORMALS.

BY MONDAY MORNING THE TROF AXIS WILL HAVE SHIFTED SOUTHEAST OF THE
GREATER PHOENIX AREA...PUTTING MOST OF THE CWA UNDER A SUBSIDENT
NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO THIN...WITH SKIES TO
BECOME MOSTLY SUNNY BY EARLY AFTERNOON OVER ALL BUT THE HIGH TERRAIN
OF SRN GILA COUNTY. LITTLE CHANGE IN HIGH TEMPS IS EXPECTED...AS
COOLER AIR CONTINUES TO FILTER OVER THE LOWER DESERTS. THE FORECAST
HIGH FOR PHOENIX MONDAY WILL BE JUST 72 DEGREES.

DRY NORTH TO NORTHEAST FLOW ALOFT CONTINUES ACROSS THE AREA IN THE
WAKE OF THE DEPARTED UPPER TROF ON TUESDAY...FOR GENERALLY SUNNY
SKIES. HIGH TEMPS WILL RISE A FEW DEGREES AS HEIGHTS/THICKNESSES
START TO CLIMB...BUT OVERALL TEMPS WILL STAY BELOW SEASONAL NORMALS
WITH PHOENIX SITTING IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S.

QUITE A BIT OF MODEL UNCERTAINLY DEVELOPING FOR THE LATTER PORTION
OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD. GFS KEEPS HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT IN PLACE
ACROSS THE DESERT SOUTHWEST...AND DEVELOPS A CLOSED LOW WELL OFF TO
THE SOUTHEAST...OVER PORTIONS OF TEXAS AND NRN MEXICO. ON THE OTHER
HAND...THE ECMWF DEVELOPS THAT SAME UPPER LOW MUCH FURTHER TO THE
WEST...AND ACTUALLY MOVES THE LOW CENTER INTO SERN AZ BY WED
AFTERNOON. THE LOW STARTS TO ADVECT QUITE A BIT OF MOISTURE INTO
SERN AZ...SOME OF THAT MOISTURE TROPICAL IN NATURE. VERY LOW
CONFIDENCE IN THE ECMWF SOLUTION AS MODEL RUN TO RUN CONSISTENCY HAS
BEEN VERY LOW. FOR NOW...WILL KEEP A DRY FORECAST IN PLACE ACROSS AZ
FOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...BUT WILL KEEP SOME SINGLE DIGIT POPS IN
PLACE FROM PHOENIX EASTWARD...AND ADD IN SOME CLOUD COVER AS
WELL...IN A NOD TO THE MODEL UNCERTAINTY.

&&

.AVIATION...
SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA INCLUDING KPHX...KIWA AND KSDL...AND
SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA AND SOUTHWEST ARIZONA INCLUDING KIPL AND KBLH...

THROUGH 19Z FRI...VRBL CLOUDS AOA 25 THSD MSL. LIGHT WIND UNDER 8
KNOTS...HOWEVER SOUTH WIND INCREASING ALONG THE COLORADO RIVER
VALLEY AFTER 17Z FRI INTO THE 10 TO 15 KNOT RANGE.

AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDED TAFS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...
SLIGHTLY COOLER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL FILTER INTO THE
DISTRICT THE FIRST PART OF NEXT WEEK...BEFORE MODERATING THE LATTER
HALF OF THE WEEK. OCCASIONALLY GUSTY AFTERNOON NORTHWEST AND WEST
WINDS WILL BE COMMON SUNDAY AND MONDAY...WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 25 MPH
POSSIBLE ALONG RIDGE TOPS AND THROUGH FAVORED RIVER VALLEY
LOCATIONS. MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES WILL INITIALLY HOVER IN
A 20-40 PERCENT RANGE SUNDAY BUT WILL FALL INTO THE TEENS THE
REMAINDER OF THE WEEK AS DRIER AIR GRADUALLY OVERSPREADS THE AREA.
OTHERWISE...OVERNIGHT RECOVERY WILL BE GOOD WITH ONLY MINIMAL
CHANCES OF WETTING RAINS OVER HIGHER TERRAIN EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

AZ...NONE.

CA...NONE.

&&

$$

VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/PHOENIX

DISCUSSION...CB
AVIATION...VASQUEZ
FIRE WEATHER...MO



















  [top]

000
FXUS65 KTWC 311003
AFDTWC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ
303 AM MST FRI OCT 31 2014

.SYNOPSIS...HAPPY HALLOWEEN. ANOTHER WARM DAY TO CLOSE OUT OCTOBER
WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME LOCATIONS BEING WITHIN A DEGREE OR TWO
OF HALLOWEEN RECORD HIGHS. A TROUGH WILL BRING GUSTY WINDS OVER THE
WEEKEND WITH SIGNIFICANTLY COOLER AIR EARLY NEXT WEEK. THERE WILL BE
A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS MAINLY ON SUNDAY ACROSS EASTERN HALF OF
SOUTHEAST ARIZONA. THE COLDEST OVERNIGHT LOWS OF THE SEASON SO FAR
ARE EXPECTED MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING.

&&

.DISCUSSION...BAND OF MAINLY HIGH CLOUDS MOVING ACROSS SOUTHERN
ARIZONA WITH CLEARER CONDITIONS WEST OF THE BAND. SO EXPECT THE
WESTERN PARTS OF THE AREA TO HAVE MORE SUNSHINE TODAY VERSUS EASTERN
AREAS SINCE THIS AREA WILL SEE AN INCREASE IN LOW-MID LEVEL MOISTURE
FROM THE SOUTH. COMBINED WITH THE NEAR RECORD HALLOWEEN WARMTH COULD
SEE A FEW SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP MAINLY OVER THE HIGHER
TERRAIN EAST OF TUCSON.

AS OCTOBER CLOSES OUT ON A NEAR RECORD WARMTH NOTE...NOVEMBER WILL
START OFF WITH A SIGNIFICANT COOL DOWN WITH HIGHS SUNDAY INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK BEING BELOW NORMAL. IT WILL ACTUALLY FEEL LIKE FALL
FINALLY. THE PACIFIC TROF THAT WILL BE RESPONSIBLE FOR THE COOL DOWN
ALONG WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS/HIGH ELEVATION SNOW SHOWERS
WILL MOVE INLAND TONIGHT ALONG THE WEST COAST...THEN SLOWLY MOVE
EAST ACROSS THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST OVER THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK. GUSTY WINDS ARE A GIVEN THIS WEEKEND. WHAT IS NOT A GIVEN IS
THE CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION ON SUNDAY WITH A WIDE VARIETY OF MODEL
SOLUTIONS MAKING THE FORECAST A CHALLENGING ONE. HAVE WENT AHEAD AND
BLENDED THE WETTER NAM/NAMDNG5 MODELS WITH THE NOT AS WET GFS/ECMWF
MODELS WHICH HAS LED TO A SLIGHT UPTICK IN POPS FOR THE VALLEYS AND
A BETTER INCREASE IN POPS FOR THE MOUNTAINS. COULD SEE 1"-2" OF SNOW
AT THE HIGHEST ELEVATIONS OF THE EAST CENTRAL MOUNTAIN BY LATE
SUNDAY NIGHT.

MUCH COOLER OVERNIGHT LOWS BOTH MONDAY AND TUESDAY MORNING WITH
TUESDAY THE COLDEST MORNING AS A FEW OF THE USUAL COLD SPOTS EAST OF
TUCSON GETTING NEAR FREEZING TEMPERATURES FOR A FEW HOURS.

THEREAFTER THE ECMWF CONTINUES TO THE ODD MODEL OUT WITH RESPECTS TO
AN UPPER LOW DEVELOPING OVER NORTHERN MEXICO AND INFLUENCING OUR
WEATHER WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS LATE TUESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY.
AT THIS TIME HAVE OPTED FOR A DRY/WARMING TREND SOLUTION. STAY TUNED.

&&

.AVIATION...VALID THRU 01/12Z.
VFR CONDITIONS AT ALL TERMINALS. SCT-BKN MID LEVEL CLOUDS AT 11-15K
FT AGL THRU 31/19Z...THEN SCT CLOUDS AT 7-11K FT AGL. SLIGHT CHANCE
OF -SHRA/-TSRA ALONG THE NEW MEXICO BORDER AFT 31/20Z. SELY SURFACE
WIND AT 5-15 KTS FROM KTUS WEST...WITH SELY SURFACE WIND AT 10-17 KTS
AND GUSTY EAST OF A KFHU TO KSAD LINE. AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT
UPDATED FOR TAF AMENDMENTS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...AN APPROACHING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BRING ABOUT
CHANGING CONDITIONS THROUGH THE WEEKEND. EXPECT ANOTHER WARM DAY
TODAY ALONG WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THE
NEW MEXICO BORDER THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING. STRENGTHENING SOUTHEAST
WINDS WILL OVERSPREAD SOUTHEAST ARIZONA FROM EAST TO WEST TODAY AND
TONIGHT. THE APPROACHING LOW WILL THEN RESULT IN GUSTY SOUTHWEST TO
WEST WINDS SATURDAY AND SUNDAY AS IT PASSES NORTH OF THE AREA. THERE
WILL BE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH SUNDAY...
MAINLY IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN EAST OF TUCSON. BELOW NORMAL READINGS
ARE FORECAST BEHIND THIS SYSTEM...SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY OF NEXT
WEEK. WARMER READINGS ARE THEN EXPECTED LATE NEXT WEEK AS HIGH
PRESSURE ALOFT BUILDS BACK IN ACROSS THE SOUTHWESTERN UNITED
STATES.

&&

.CLIMATE...HALLOWEEN LATELY AS TURNED OUT TO BE A VERY WARM ONE
ACROSS SOUTHEAST ARIZONA. FOR TUCSON...FROM 1894 TO 2007...THERE
WERE ONLY TWO HALLOWEENS /1916 AND 1999/ WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER
90S. COUNTING TODAYS FORECAST HIGH OF 92 DEGREES...THIS WILL BE THE
THIRD TIME IN THE PAST SEVEN YEARS /2008 AND 2011/ WITH HALLOWEEN
HIGHS IN THE LOWER 90S.

$$

VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...YOUTUBE...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/TUCSON







000
FXUS65 KTWC 311003
AFDTWC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ
303 AM MST FRI OCT 31 2014

.SYNOPSIS...HAPPY HALLOWEEN. ANOTHER WARM DAY TO CLOSE OUT OCTOBER
WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME LOCATIONS BEING WITHIN A DEGREE OR TWO
OF HALLOWEEN RECORD HIGHS. A TROUGH WILL BRING GUSTY WINDS OVER THE
WEEKEND WITH SIGNIFICANTLY COOLER AIR EARLY NEXT WEEK. THERE WILL BE
A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS MAINLY ON SUNDAY ACROSS EASTERN HALF OF
SOUTHEAST ARIZONA. THE COLDEST OVERNIGHT LOWS OF THE SEASON SO FAR
ARE EXPECTED MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING.

&&

.DISCUSSION...BAND OF MAINLY HIGH CLOUDS MOVING ACROSS SOUTHERN
ARIZONA WITH CLEARER CONDITIONS WEST OF THE BAND. SO EXPECT THE
WESTERN PARTS OF THE AREA TO HAVE MORE SUNSHINE TODAY VERSUS EASTERN
AREAS SINCE THIS AREA WILL SEE AN INCREASE IN LOW-MID LEVEL MOISTURE
FROM THE SOUTH. COMBINED WITH THE NEAR RECORD HALLOWEEN WARMTH COULD
SEE A FEW SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP MAINLY OVER THE HIGHER
TERRAIN EAST OF TUCSON.

AS OCTOBER CLOSES OUT ON A NEAR RECORD WARMTH NOTE...NOVEMBER WILL
START OFF WITH A SIGNIFICANT COOL DOWN WITH HIGHS SUNDAY INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK BEING BELOW NORMAL. IT WILL ACTUALLY FEEL LIKE FALL
FINALLY. THE PACIFIC TROF THAT WILL BE RESPONSIBLE FOR THE COOL DOWN
ALONG WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS/HIGH ELEVATION SNOW SHOWERS
WILL MOVE INLAND TONIGHT ALONG THE WEST COAST...THEN SLOWLY MOVE
EAST ACROSS THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST OVER THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK. GUSTY WINDS ARE A GIVEN THIS WEEKEND. WHAT IS NOT A GIVEN IS
THE CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION ON SUNDAY WITH A WIDE VARIETY OF MODEL
SOLUTIONS MAKING THE FORECAST A CHALLENGING ONE. HAVE WENT AHEAD AND
BLENDED THE WETTER NAM/NAMDNG5 MODELS WITH THE NOT AS WET GFS/ECMWF
MODELS WHICH HAS LED TO A SLIGHT UPTICK IN POPS FOR THE VALLEYS AND
A BETTER INCREASE IN POPS FOR THE MOUNTAINS. COULD SEE 1"-2" OF SNOW
AT THE HIGHEST ELEVATIONS OF THE EAST CENTRAL MOUNTAIN BY LATE
SUNDAY NIGHT.

MUCH COOLER OVERNIGHT LOWS BOTH MONDAY AND TUESDAY MORNING WITH
TUESDAY THE COLDEST MORNING AS A FEW OF THE USUAL COLD SPOTS EAST OF
TUCSON GETTING NEAR FREEZING TEMPERATURES FOR A FEW HOURS.

THEREAFTER THE ECMWF CONTINUES TO THE ODD MODEL OUT WITH RESPECTS TO
AN UPPER LOW DEVELOPING OVER NORTHERN MEXICO AND INFLUENCING OUR
WEATHER WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS LATE TUESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY.
AT THIS TIME HAVE OPTED FOR A DRY/WARMING TREND SOLUTION. STAY TUNED.

&&

.AVIATION...VALID THRU 01/12Z.
VFR CONDITIONS AT ALL TERMINALS. SCT-BKN MID LEVEL CLOUDS AT 11-15K
FT AGL THRU 31/19Z...THEN SCT CLOUDS AT 7-11K FT AGL. SLIGHT CHANCE
OF -SHRA/-TSRA ALONG THE NEW MEXICO BORDER AFT 31/20Z. SELY SURFACE
WIND AT 5-15 KTS FROM KTUS WEST...WITH SELY SURFACE WIND AT 10-17 KTS
AND GUSTY EAST OF A KFHU TO KSAD LINE. AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT
UPDATED FOR TAF AMENDMENTS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...AN APPROACHING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BRING ABOUT
CHANGING CONDITIONS THROUGH THE WEEKEND. EXPECT ANOTHER WARM DAY
TODAY ALONG WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THE
NEW MEXICO BORDER THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING. STRENGTHENING SOUTHEAST
WINDS WILL OVERSPREAD SOUTHEAST ARIZONA FROM EAST TO WEST TODAY AND
TONIGHT. THE APPROACHING LOW WILL THEN RESULT IN GUSTY SOUTHWEST TO
WEST WINDS SATURDAY AND SUNDAY AS IT PASSES NORTH OF THE AREA. THERE
WILL BE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH SUNDAY...
MAINLY IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN EAST OF TUCSON. BELOW NORMAL READINGS
ARE FORECAST BEHIND THIS SYSTEM...SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY OF NEXT
WEEK. WARMER READINGS ARE THEN EXPECTED LATE NEXT WEEK AS HIGH
PRESSURE ALOFT BUILDS BACK IN ACROSS THE SOUTHWESTERN UNITED
STATES.

&&

.CLIMATE...HALLOWEEN LATELY AS TURNED OUT TO BE A VERY WARM ONE
ACROSS SOUTHEAST ARIZONA. FOR TUCSON...FROM 1894 TO 2007...THERE
WERE ONLY TWO HALLOWEENS /1916 AND 1999/ WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER
90S. COUNTING TODAYS FORECAST HIGH OF 92 DEGREES...THIS WILL BE THE
THIRD TIME IN THE PAST SEVEN YEARS /2008 AND 2011/ WITH HALLOWEEN
HIGHS IN THE LOWER 90S.

$$

VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...YOUTUBE...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/TUCSON







000
FXUS65 KFGZ 310359
AFDFGZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ
855 PM MST THU OCT 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...A DEPARTING HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL BRING ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES TO ARIZONA ON HALLOWEEN. BY THIS WEEKEND...WINDY AND
COLDER WEATHER WILL DEVELOP AS A PACIFIC COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH
ARIZONA. THIS SYSTEM WILL BRING A FEW RAIN SHOWERS ON SATURDAY AND
HIGHER CHANCES FOR RAIN...AND SNOW BELOW 7000 FEET ON SUNDAY. DRY
WEATHER RETURNS ON TUESDAY WITH A SLOW WARMING TREND.

&&

.DISCUSSION...A DEPARTING HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL BRING WARMER
TEMPERATURES AND BREEZY WINDS TO ARIZONA ON HALLOWEEN. BREEZY WINDS
WILL CONTINUE INTO THE EVENING HOURS KEEPING TEMPERATURES ABOVE
NORMAL FOR THE HALLOWEEN EVENING FESTIVITIES. A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR A
FEW THUNDERSTORMS REMAINS IN THE FORECAST ACROSS PORTIONS OF
NORTHEASTERN ARIZONA.

ON SATURDAY...STRONGER WINDS ARE FORECAST AHEAD OF A PACIFIC COLD
FRONT WITH INCREASING RAIN SHOWERS THROUGH SUNDAY. A DUSTING OF
SNOWFALL IS ALSO FORECAST ON SUNDAY FOR PORTIONS OF THE HIGH COUNTRY
WITH SNOW LEVELS DROPPING BELOW 7000 FEET ELEVATION IN SOME AREAS.

&&

.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...STRONG WINDS ARE THE
MAIN STORY ON SATURDAY AS THE INITIAL PORTION OF THE WESTERN TROUGH
AFFECTS THE AREA. THE DONEY PARK AREA COULD SEE WIND GUSTS EXCEEDING
40 MPH AS EARLY AS FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING. BY MID
MORNING...WIDESPREAD SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS OF 15 TO 30 MPH AND
GUSTS FROM 35 TO 50 MPH ARE EXPECTED...WITH THE STRONGEST WINDS
ALONG AND NORTH OF THE MOGOLLON RIM. AREAS OF BLOWING DUST ARE
POSSIBLE ACROSS THE NAVAJO NATION. AS FAR AS PRECIP GOES THIS
WEEKEND...WE WILL HAVE DECENT DYNAMICS AND INCREASED MOISTURE ALONG
AND BEHIND THE COLD FRONT SATURDAY...BUT A RELATIVELY WARM LAYER
ALOFT WILL LIMIT THE CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION. PRECIP CHANCES ARE
GENERALLY 10-20 PERCENT SATURDAY FOR MOST OF THE NORTHLAND...BUT
AROUND 40 PERCENT ON THE KAIBAB PLATEAU.

MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT THE MAIN TROUGH AND COLDER AIR
ALOFT WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION LATE SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY.
THE CHANCE OF SHOWERS INCREASES FOR THIS TIME FRAME AS MID LEVEL
INSTABILITY INCREASES. SNOW LEVELS COULD FALL TO AROUND 7000 FEET OR
JUST BELOW ON SUNDAY. SOME LIGHT ACCUMULATION POSSIBLE OVER THE
KAIBAB PLATEAU AND THE SAN FRANCISCO PEAKS. DAYTIME TEMPERATURES
WILL BE THE COLDEST OF THE SEASON...NOT GETTING OUT OF THE 40S FOR
THE MOUNTAINS.

MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...MODELS HAVE SLOWED THE DEPARTURE OF THE
TROUGH AND COLD AIRMASS OUT OF ARIZONA...SO A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
SHOWERS CONTINUES MONDAY WITH WELL BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES. A SLOW
WARMING TREND IN DAYTIME TEMPERATURES STARTS TUESDAY AND CONTINUES
THROUGH THE WEEK. HOWEVER...OVERNIGHT LOWS ARE LIKELY TO BE THE
COLDEST OF THE YEAR SO FAR...FREEZING TEMPS POSSIBLE DOWN TO THE
4500 FT ELEVATION LEVEL.

&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 06Z PACKAGE...EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS AND LIGHT
WINDS UNDER PERIODIC HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING. SOUTH
WINDS WILL INCREASE AFT 17Z FRIDAY BECOMING 15-20 KTS WITH GUSTS OF
25-30 KTS. THERE WILL BE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF -SHRA/-TSRA FROM KAYENTA
TO PAYSON EASTWARD FRIDAY AFTERNOON. AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED
FOR AMENDMENTS.
&&

.FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC.....BOHLIN/JJ
AVIATION...BOHLIN

FOR NORTHERN ARIZONA WEATHER INFORMATION VISIT
WEATHER.GOV/FLAGSTAFF





000
FXUS65 KFGZ 310359
AFDFGZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ
855 PM MST THU OCT 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...A DEPARTING HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL BRING ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES TO ARIZONA ON HALLOWEEN. BY THIS WEEKEND...WINDY AND
COLDER WEATHER WILL DEVELOP AS A PACIFIC COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH
ARIZONA. THIS SYSTEM WILL BRING A FEW RAIN SHOWERS ON SATURDAY AND
HIGHER CHANCES FOR RAIN...AND SNOW BELOW 7000 FEET ON SUNDAY. DRY
WEATHER RETURNS ON TUESDAY WITH A SLOW WARMING TREND.

&&

.DISCUSSION...A DEPARTING HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL BRING WARMER
TEMPERATURES AND BREEZY WINDS TO ARIZONA ON HALLOWEEN. BREEZY WINDS
WILL CONTINUE INTO THE EVENING HOURS KEEPING TEMPERATURES ABOVE
NORMAL FOR THE HALLOWEEN EVENING FESTIVITIES. A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR A
FEW THUNDERSTORMS REMAINS IN THE FORECAST ACROSS PORTIONS OF
NORTHEASTERN ARIZONA.

ON SATURDAY...STRONGER WINDS ARE FORECAST AHEAD OF A PACIFIC COLD
FRONT WITH INCREASING RAIN SHOWERS THROUGH SUNDAY. A DUSTING OF
SNOWFALL IS ALSO FORECAST ON SUNDAY FOR PORTIONS OF THE HIGH COUNTRY
WITH SNOW LEVELS DROPPING BELOW 7000 FEET ELEVATION IN SOME AREAS.

&&

.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...STRONG WINDS ARE THE
MAIN STORY ON SATURDAY AS THE INITIAL PORTION OF THE WESTERN TROUGH
AFFECTS THE AREA. THE DONEY PARK AREA COULD SEE WIND GUSTS EXCEEDING
40 MPH AS EARLY AS FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING. BY MID
MORNING...WIDESPREAD SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS OF 15 TO 30 MPH AND
GUSTS FROM 35 TO 50 MPH ARE EXPECTED...WITH THE STRONGEST WINDS
ALONG AND NORTH OF THE MOGOLLON RIM. AREAS OF BLOWING DUST ARE
POSSIBLE ACROSS THE NAVAJO NATION. AS FAR AS PRECIP GOES THIS
WEEKEND...WE WILL HAVE DECENT DYNAMICS AND INCREASED MOISTURE ALONG
AND BEHIND THE COLD FRONT SATURDAY...BUT A RELATIVELY WARM LAYER
ALOFT WILL LIMIT THE CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION. PRECIP CHANCES ARE
GENERALLY 10-20 PERCENT SATURDAY FOR MOST OF THE NORTHLAND...BUT
AROUND 40 PERCENT ON THE KAIBAB PLATEAU.

MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT THE MAIN TROUGH AND COLDER AIR
ALOFT WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION LATE SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY.
THE CHANCE OF SHOWERS INCREASES FOR THIS TIME FRAME AS MID LEVEL
INSTABILITY INCREASES. SNOW LEVELS COULD FALL TO AROUND 7000 FEET OR
JUST BELOW ON SUNDAY. SOME LIGHT ACCUMULATION POSSIBLE OVER THE
KAIBAB PLATEAU AND THE SAN FRANCISCO PEAKS. DAYTIME TEMPERATURES
WILL BE THE COLDEST OF THE SEASON...NOT GETTING OUT OF THE 40S FOR
THE MOUNTAINS.

MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...MODELS HAVE SLOWED THE DEPARTURE OF THE
TROUGH AND COLD AIRMASS OUT OF ARIZONA...SO A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
SHOWERS CONTINUES MONDAY WITH WELL BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES. A SLOW
WARMING TREND IN DAYTIME TEMPERATURES STARTS TUESDAY AND CONTINUES
THROUGH THE WEEK. HOWEVER...OVERNIGHT LOWS ARE LIKELY TO BE THE
COLDEST OF THE YEAR SO FAR...FREEZING TEMPS POSSIBLE DOWN TO THE
4500 FT ELEVATION LEVEL.

&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 06Z PACKAGE...EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS AND LIGHT
WINDS UNDER PERIODIC HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING. SOUTH
WINDS WILL INCREASE AFT 17Z FRIDAY BECOMING 15-20 KTS WITH GUSTS OF
25-30 KTS. THERE WILL BE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF -SHRA/-TSRA FROM KAYENTA
TO PAYSON EASTWARD FRIDAY AFTERNOON. AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED
FOR AMENDMENTS.
&&

.FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC.....BOHLIN/JJ
AVIATION...BOHLIN

FOR NORTHERN ARIZONA WEATHER INFORMATION VISIT
WEATHER.GOV/FLAGSTAFF





000
FXUS65 KTWC 310355
AFDTWC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ
855 PM MST THU OCT 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...WARMER TEMPERATURES THROUGH FRIDAY AS AN AREA OF HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE REGION. HIGH TEMPERATURES ON FRIDAY WILL
AGAIN BE AT LEAST 7 TO 10 DEGREES ABOVE AVERAGE WITH NEAR RECORD
HIGHS POSSIBLE IN A FEW SPOTS. A TROUGH WILL BRING GUSTY WINDS OVER
THE WEEKEND WITH SIGNIFICANTLY COOLER AIR EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE
COLDEST OVERNIGHT LOWS OF THE SEASON SO FAR ARE EXPECTED MONDAY
NIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING.

&&

.DISCUSSION...WATER VAPOR IMAGERY...31/00Z UPPER-AIR PLOTS AND THE
MOST RECENT MODEL DATA INDICATE THAT THE RIDGE AXIS CONTINUES TO
MOVE EAST OF ARIZONA AS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED WEAK VORT
MAX MAKE THEIR WAY INTO SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA. MEANWHILE...IR
SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THE BAND OF MOSTLY HIGH CLOUDINESS THAT
AFFECTED MUCH OF MY FORECAST AREA THIS AFTERNOON HAS PUSHED OFF TO
THE EAST AND NORTHEAST ACROSS EXTREME EASTERN ARIZONA AND INTO
SOUTHWEST NEW MEXICO WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES OVER THE WESTERN TWO
THIRDS OF THE FORECAST AREA. HOWEVER...ADDITIONAL CLOUDINESS
ASSOCIATED WITH THE APPROACHING SHORTWAVE TO THE WEST WILL BRING
INTERMITTENT MOSTLY HIGH CLOUDS ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT INTO
FRIDAY. THEREFORE...THE MOSTLY CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY WORDING IN THE
TEXT PRODUCTS FOR TONIGHT SEEMS REASONABLE.

AS OF 03Z (8 PM MST)...TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE REGION RANGED FROM
THE MID 60S TO THE UPPER 70S...WITH THE TUCSON INTL AIRPORT
REPORTING A TEMP OF 79 DEGS AFTER ACHIEVING AN AFTERNOON HIGH
TEMPERATURE OF 93 DEGS WHICH WAS 13 DEGS ABOVE NORMAL FOR THIS DATE.
IN ADDITION...TODAYS HIGH WAS ONLY 1 DEGREE SHY OF THE RECORD HIGH
FOR THIS DATE WHICH WAS SET BACK IN 2001.

THE CURRENT TEMPERATURE READINGS SEEM TO BE RIGHT ON TRACK WITH THE
EXPECTED/INHERITED OVERNIGHT LOW TEMPERATURE FORECASTS...SO NO
CHANGES TO THE TEMPS ARE PLANNED AT THIS TIME. OVERALL THE FORECAST
FOR THE REMAINDER OF TONIGHT LOOKS TO BE IN GOOD SHAPE.

FOR DETAILS REGARDING THE FORECAST BEYOND TONIGHT...PLEASE REFER TO
THE PREVIOUS DISCUSSION BELOW.

&&

.AVIATION...VALID THRU 01/00Z.
VFR CONDITIONS AT ALL TERMINALS. FEW-SCT CIRRUS CLOUDS AOA 20K FT
AGL WILL REMAIN OVER THE AREA THRU 31/18Z THEN FEW-SCT CUMULUS
CLOUDS NEAR 9K FT WITH A BIT OF CIRRUS ABOVE EXPECTED THEREAFTER.
ISOLD RW-/TRW- WILL DEVELOP NEAR THE NEW MEXICO BORDER AFT 31/18Z.
SURFACE WINDS INCREASING AND BECOMING MOSTLY SOUTHEAST MAINLY TUCSON
EASTWARD TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY WITH SURFACE WIND AT 10-15 KTS.
AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR TAF AMENDMENTS.  CERNIGLIA

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...AN APPROACHING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BRING ABOUT
CHANGING CONDITIONS THROUGH THE WEEKEND.  EXPECT ANOTHER HOT DAY
FRIDAY WITH A SOUTHEAST FLOW BRINGING MOISTURE AND A SMALL CHANCE OF
SHOWERS TO THE REGION LATE FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT.  THE APPROACHING
LOW WILL THEN PRODUCE GUSTY SOUTHWEST TO WEST WINDS SATURDAY AND
SUNDAY AS IT PASSES NORTH OF THE AREA.  IT WILL ALSO GENERATE A FEW
SHOWERS ON SUNDAY ALONG WITH FORCING MUCH COOLER AIR ACROSS THE
REGION.  THEN DRY CONDITIONS AND BELOW AVERAGE TEMPERATURES ARE
EXPECTED THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK.  CERNIGLIA

&&

.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...MODEST MID LEVEL MOISTURE INCREASE FROM THE
SOUTHWEST WITH A BIT OF H7 MOISTURE FROM THE SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST ON
THE BACK SIDE OF THE RIDGE AXIS WILL PROBABLY BRING SOME VIRGA TO
THE AREA LATE FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY EVENING...WITH A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS
OR DRYISH THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE FROM TUCSON EASTWARD.

WEEKEND TROUGH STILL ON TRACK BUT MAY BE A TAD SLOW FOR MUCH OF OUR
PART OF THE STATE SUNDAY. WE WILL REALIZE FULL COOLING ACROSS OUR
CWA BY MONDAY...BUT WHAT`S LEFT OF THE TAIL END OF THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY MAY NOT BE DONE WITH OUR CWA SUNDAY AFTERNOON. AREAS STILL
IN THE WARM SECTOR WOULD BE QUITE A BIT WARMER THAN AREAS FARTHER
WEST...SUCH AS DOUGLAS WARMER THAN PHOENIX. GUSTY WINDS BUT BELOW
ADVISORY CRITERIA OVER THE WEEKEND.

COOLEST TEMPERATURES OF THE SEASON SO FAR MONDAY INTO TUESDAY.
MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY MORNING MAY SEE A BRIEF FREEZE IN SOME
COLDEST EASTERN VALLEY LOCATIONS SUCH AS AREAS AROUND WILLCOX AND
SULPHUR SPRINGS VALLEY.

12Z ECMWF CONTINUES TO PLAY CATCH-UP WITH OTHER MEDIUM RANGE MODELS
FOR NEXT WEEK. CUT-OFF SCENARIO ENSEMBLE MEMBERS DROPPING AWAY EACH
RUN WITH OPERATIONAL ECMWF PHASING CLOSER TO OTHER MODEL RESOLUTION.
LATEST HAS CUT-OFF IN WESTERN NEW MEXICO MONDAY NIGHT INSTEAD OF
NORTHERN SONORA. WITH GFS ON THE FAST AND FARTHER EAST SIDE OF THE
SPECTRUM AND BLEND OF THE TWO MIGHT WORK PRETTY WELL.

TROPICAL DEPRESSION HAS ORGANIZED INTO TROPICAL STORM VANCE ABOUT
415 MILES SOUTH OF ACAPULCO MEXICO. AFTER A WOBBLE SOUTHWEST THE
OFFICIAL NHC TRACK REASONABLY RECURVES WEST TO NORTH TO A POSITION
OFF THE WEST COAST OF MEXICO OVER THE NEXT 5 DAYS. TROUGH SHOULD NOT
BE IN A POSITION TO DRAW ANY MOISTURE FROM THIS FEATURE INTO OUR
AREA NEXT WEEK...HOWEVER TEXAS AND THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY MAY BE
ANOTHER MATTER.

&&

.TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...YOUTUBE...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/TUCSON

CURRENT DISCUSSION...MOLLERE
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...MEYER/CERNIGLIA







000
FXUS65 KPSR 310355
AFDPSR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PHOENIX AZ
855 PM MST THU OCT 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ANOTHER DAY OF WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES IS EXPECTED ON FRIDAY.
SIGNIFICANTLY COOLER READINGS ARE THEN EXPECTED FOR THE WEEKEND...
AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AND COLD FRONT PUSH THROUGH THE DESERT
SOUTHWEST. HIGHS IN THE LOWER DESERTS WILL DROP INTO THE UPPER 70S
ON SATURDAY AND FALL TO THE LOWER 70S ON SUNDAY. IN ADDITION TO THE
COOLER TEMPERATURES...PERIODS OF BREEZY CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED
THROUGHOUT THE WEEKEND. RAIN CHANCES WILL BE SLIGHT AND CONFINED TO
THE HIGHER TERRAIN. A GRADUAL WARMING TREND WILL BEGIN MONDAY INTO
THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
VARIABLE HIGH CLOUDS CONTINUED STREAK ACROSS THE REGION AT 8 PM
AHEAD OF A WEAK DISTURBANCE THATS STILL FORECAST TO MOVE IN A
NORTHEASTWARD DIRECTION ACROSS SOUTHEAST CA/NORTHWEST AZ TONIGHT.
CLEARING IS EXPECTED FRIDAY...HOWEVER AS A SECOND AND MUCH LARGER
PACIFIC TROF APPROACHES THE WEST COAST FRIDAY...AFTERNOON SOUTH
WINDS IN THE 15 TO 25 MPH RANGE ARE LIKELY IN THE SOUTHEAST
CA/SOUTHWEST AZ CORRIDOR LATE IN THE DAY...DIMINISHING FRIDAY
EVENING.

SATURDAY WILL BE THE WINDIEST DAY AS A MOSTLY DRY COLD FRONT ENTERS
AZ FROM THE WEST DURING THE AFTERNOON. THE WINDIEST PERIOD IN OUR
FORECAST AREA...SOUTHEAST CA TO SOUTH CENTRAL AZ...WILL DEVELOP
BETWEEN 10 AM AND 6 PM SAT WITH WINDS GENERALLY FROM THE SOUTHWEST
IN THE 15 TO 25 MPH RANGE...WITH FREQUENT GUSTS TO 30 MPH. HOWEVER
GUSTS TO 35 MPH ARE LIKELY IN THE MOUNTAINS OF SOUTHERN GILA COUNTY
SATURDAY AFTERNOON..

UPDATES THIS EVENING WERE TO INCREASE WIND SPEEDS FOR THE ABOVE
SELECTED AREAS MENTIONED ABOVE FRIDAY AND SATURDAY AFTERNOON.
OTHERWISE REMAINDER OF DRY AND COOLER FORECASTS THIS WEEKEND LOOK
OK. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION BELOW STILL APPLIES.


.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...156 PM MST...

HIGH CLOUDINESS HAS GRADUALLY MOVED FROM SE CA ACROSS SW AZ THROUGH
THE DAY TODAY...PUSHED NE INTO THE REGION BY A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
SPINNING OFF THE CA COAST. THIS HAS NOT DONE ANYTHING HOWEVER TO
TEMPER THE RISE OF SURFACE TEMPERATURES...WITH MOST REPORTING
STATIONS CURRENTLY AVERAGING 2 TO 3 DEGREES WARMER THAN THIS SAME
TIME ON WEDNESDAY.

HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING OVER THE WESTERN STATES IS RESPONSIBLE FOR THE
ABNORMALLY HIGH READINGS. THIS RIDGE THOUGH WILL GRADUALLY SHUNT TO
THE EAST...AS A MUCH STRONGER STORM SYSTEM BEGINS DIGGING FROM THE
PACIFIC NORTHWEST TOWARD THE SOUTHEAST. THE RIDGE WILL HOLD ITS
GROUND ON FRIDAY AND WE SHOULD SEE ANOTHER ABNORMALLY WARM DAY WITH
MINIMAL CLOUDINESS.

MODELS SHOW PWAT INCREASING FROM AROUND .40 INCH TODAY TO OVER .80
INCH BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON. SOUNDINGS FOR FRIDAY THOUGH SHOW MINIMAL
INSTABILITY. DESPITE THIS...CAN NOT RULE OUT AN ISOLATED SHOWER IN
THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF SOUTHERN GILA COUNTY.

SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...
AS THE STORM SYSTEM AND COLD FRONT MOVE INTO THE REGION FRIDAY NIGHT
INTO SATURDAY...THE PRIMARY IMPACT WILL BE THE MUCH COOLER
TEMPERATURE READINGS AND BREEZY WIND CONDITIONS. STRONGEST WINDS
WILL REMAIN OVER OUR SE CA ZONES...WITH WIND GUSTS OF 20 TO 25 KNOTS
POSSIBLE. ATM WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA IS NOT EXPECTED...THOUGH WE
WILL CONTINUE TO EVALUATE AS WE GET CLOSER TO THE WEEKEND. NO
APPRECIABLE MOISTURE IS EXPECTED WITH THIS SYSTEM...THOUGH THERE
COULD BE ENOUGH BOTH MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN
FOR SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS BOTH SATURDAY AND SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND
EARLY EVENING. INSTABILITY IS NOT THAT GREAT...SO CONVECTION THAT
DOES DEVELOP WILL LIKELY BE IN THE FORM OF RAIN SHOWERS.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...

ALOFT...THERE LOOKS TO BE TWO MAIN SHORT WAVE/VORT MAXES WITH THE
TROUGH THAT WILL AFFECT SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA AND ARIZONA THIS
WEEKEND. THE FIRST ONE PASSES JUST NORTHWEST OF OUR AREA EARLY
SATURDAY. THE SECOND ONE BRUSHES US LATER SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY. THE
SECOND ONE LOOKS TO HAVE THE BEST POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE PRECIP AS QG
FORCING WILL BE BETTER FOR OUR AREA AND THERE WILL BE COOLER AIR
MAKING PRECIP PROCESSES MORE EFFICIENT. HOWEVER...PRECIP CHANCES
WILL BE SLIGHT AND STILL CONFINED TO HIGHER TERRAIN AREAS. MAIN
IMPACT WILL BE THE NICE COOL DOWN AND BREEZY CONDITIONS. OUR WESTERN
AREAS WILL GET MOST OF THEIR COOLING ALL ON SATURDAY. OUR EASTERN
AREAS INCLUDING PHOENIX METRO WILL DROP ABOUT 10 DEGREES SATURDAY
THEN ANOTHER NOTABLE DROP FOR SUNDAY LEADING TO HIGHS IN THE LOW TO
MID 70S ACROSS THE LOWER DESERTS.

MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...
A COUPLE OF TRAILING VORT MAXES ARE ADVERTISED TO CARVE OUT A
PROMINENT SHORT WAVE TROUGH OVER THE AREA EARLY MONDAY INTO TUESDAY.
THE ECMWF HAS RETURNED TO THE IDEA OF DEVELOPING A CLOSED LOW WITHIN
THE BOTTOM OF THE TROUGH...CENTERED OVER PHOENIX BY 00Z
TUESDAY...WHICH IS A DEEPER SOLUTION THAN THE GFS. THE GEM HAS A
SIMILAR IDEA BUT IS FASTER WITH THE ARRIVAL AND DEPARTURE.
HOWEVER...THE ECMWF LOOKS TO BE AN OUTLIER WITH RESPECT TO ITS
ENSEMBLE...THE ECENS. ALSO...IT IS INDICATIVE OF LESS RUN TO RUN
CONSISTENCY. THE GFS IS WELL SUPPORTED BY THE GEFS AND FORECASTS
WERE WEIGHTED MORE HEAVILY TOWARD THAT SOLUTION. THUS MENTION OF
PRECIP CHANCES ENDS SUNDAY NIGHT AND A WARMING TREND STARTS TUESDAY
AS A RIDGE BEGINS BUILDING IN.

&&

.AVIATION...
SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA INCLUDING KPHX...KIWA AND KSDL...AND
SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA AND SOUTHWEST ARIZONA INCLUDING KIPL AND KBLH...

THROUGH 19Z FRI...VRBL CLOUDS AOA 25 THSD MSL. LIGHT WIND UNDER 8
KNOTS...HOWEVER SOUTH WIND INCREASING ALONG THE COLORADO RIVER
VALLEY AFTER 17Z FRI INTO THE 10 TO 15 KNOT RANGE.

AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDED TAFS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...
SLIGHTLY COOLER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL FILTER INTO THE
DISTRICT THE FIRST PART OF NEXT WEEK...BEFORE MODERATING THE LATTER
HALF OF THE WEEK. OCCASIONALLY GUSTY AFTERNOON NORTHWEST AND WEST
WINDS WILL BE COMMON SUNDAY AND MONDAY...WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 25 MPH
POSSIBLE ALONG RIDGE TOPS AND THROUGH FAVORED RIVER VALLEY
LOCATIONS. MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES WILL INITIALLY HOVER IN
A 20-40 PERCENT RANGE SUNDAY BUT WILL FALL INTO THE TEENS THE
REMAINDER OF THE WEEK AS DRIER AIR GRADUALLY OVERSPREADS THE AREA.
OTHERWISE...OVERNIGHT RECOVERY WILL BE GOOD WITH ONLY MINIMAL
CHANCES OF WETTING RAINS OVER HIGHER TERRAIN EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

AZ...NONE.

CA...NONE.

&&

$$

VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/PHOENIX

DISCUSSION...VASQUEZ/MCLANE/AJ
AVIATION...VASQUEZ
FIRE WEATHER...MO
















000
FXUS65 KTWC 310355
AFDTWC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ
855 PM MST THU OCT 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...WARMER TEMPERATURES THROUGH FRIDAY AS AN AREA OF HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE REGION. HIGH TEMPERATURES ON FRIDAY WILL
AGAIN BE AT LEAST 7 TO 10 DEGREES ABOVE AVERAGE WITH NEAR RECORD
HIGHS POSSIBLE IN A FEW SPOTS. A TROUGH WILL BRING GUSTY WINDS OVER
THE WEEKEND WITH SIGNIFICANTLY COOLER AIR EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE
COLDEST OVERNIGHT LOWS OF THE SEASON SO FAR ARE EXPECTED MONDAY
NIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING.

&&

.DISCUSSION...WATER VAPOR IMAGERY...31/00Z UPPER-AIR PLOTS AND THE
MOST RECENT MODEL DATA INDICATE THAT THE RIDGE AXIS CONTINUES TO
MOVE EAST OF ARIZONA AS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED WEAK VORT
MAX MAKE THEIR WAY INTO SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA. MEANWHILE...IR
SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THE BAND OF MOSTLY HIGH CLOUDINESS THAT
AFFECTED MUCH OF MY FORECAST AREA THIS AFTERNOON HAS PUSHED OFF TO
THE EAST AND NORTHEAST ACROSS EXTREME EASTERN ARIZONA AND INTO
SOUTHWEST NEW MEXICO WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES OVER THE WESTERN TWO
THIRDS OF THE FORECAST AREA. HOWEVER...ADDITIONAL CLOUDINESS
ASSOCIATED WITH THE APPROACHING SHORTWAVE TO THE WEST WILL BRING
INTERMITTENT MOSTLY HIGH CLOUDS ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT INTO
FRIDAY. THEREFORE...THE MOSTLY CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY WORDING IN THE
TEXT PRODUCTS FOR TONIGHT SEEMS REASONABLE.

AS OF 03Z (8 PM MST)...TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE REGION RANGED FROM
THE MID 60S TO THE UPPER 70S...WITH THE TUCSON INTL AIRPORT
REPORTING A TEMP OF 79 DEGS AFTER ACHIEVING AN AFTERNOON HIGH
TEMPERATURE OF 93 DEGS WHICH WAS 13 DEGS ABOVE NORMAL FOR THIS DATE.
IN ADDITION...TODAYS HIGH WAS ONLY 1 DEGREE SHY OF THE RECORD HIGH
FOR THIS DATE WHICH WAS SET BACK IN 2001.

THE CURRENT TEMPERATURE READINGS SEEM TO BE RIGHT ON TRACK WITH THE
EXPECTED/INHERITED OVERNIGHT LOW TEMPERATURE FORECASTS...SO NO
CHANGES TO THE TEMPS ARE PLANNED AT THIS TIME. OVERALL THE FORECAST
FOR THE REMAINDER OF TONIGHT LOOKS TO BE IN GOOD SHAPE.

FOR DETAILS REGARDING THE FORECAST BEYOND TONIGHT...PLEASE REFER TO
THE PREVIOUS DISCUSSION BELOW.

&&

.AVIATION...VALID THRU 01/00Z.
VFR CONDITIONS AT ALL TERMINALS. FEW-SCT CIRRUS CLOUDS AOA 20K FT
AGL WILL REMAIN OVER THE AREA THRU 31/18Z THEN FEW-SCT CUMULUS
CLOUDS NEAR 9K FT WITH A BIT OF CIRRUS ABOVE EXPECTED THEREAFTER.
ISOLD RW-/TRW- WILL DEVELOP NEAR THE NEW MEXICO BORDER AFT 31/18Z.
SURFACE WINDS INCREASING AND BECOMING MOSTLY SOUTHEAST MAINLY TUCSON
EASTWARD TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY WITH SURFACE WIND AT 10-15 KTS.
AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR TAF AMENDMENTS.  CERNIGLIA

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...AN APPROACHING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BRING ABOUT
CHANGING CONDITIONS THROUGH THE WEEKEND.  EXPECT ANOTHER HOT DAY
FRIDAY WITH A SOUTHEAST FLOW BRINGING MOISTURE AND A SMALL CHANCE OF
SHOWERS TO THE REGION LATE FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT.  THE APPROACHING
LOW WILL THEN PRODUCE GUSTY SOUTHWEST TO WEST WINDS SATURDAY AND
SUNDAY AS IT PASSES NORTH OF THE AREA.  IT WILL ALSO GENERATE A FEW
SHOWERS ON SUNDAY ALONG WITH FORCING MUCH COOLER AIR ACROSS THE
REGION.  THEN DRY CONDITIONS AND BELOW AVERAGE TEMPERATURES ARE
EXPECTED THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK.  CERNIGLIA

&&

.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...MODEST MID LEVEL MOISTURE INCREASE FROM THE
SOUTHWEST WITH A BIT OF H7 MOISTURE FROM THE SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST ON
THE BACK SIDE OF THE RIDGE AXIS WILL PROBABLY BRING SOME VIRGA TO
THE AREA LATE FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY EVENING...WITH A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS
OR DRYISH THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE FROM TUCSON EASTWARD.

WEEKEND TROUGH STILL ON TRACK BUT MAY BE A TAD SLOW FOR MUCH OF OUR
PART OF THE STATE SUNDAY. WE WILL REALIZE FULL COOLING ACROSS OUR
CWA BY MONDAY...BUT WHAT`S LEFT OF THE TAIL END OF THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY MAY NOT BE DONE WITH OUR CWA SUNDAY AFTERNOON. AREAS STILL
IN THE WARM SECTOR WOULD BE QUITE A BIT WARMER THAN AREAS FARTHER
WEST...SUCH AS DOUGLAS WARMER THAN PHOENIX. GUSTY WINDS BUT BELOW
ADVISORY CRITERIA OVER THE WEEKEND.

COOLEST TEMPERATURES OF THE SEASON SO FAR MONDAY INTO TUESDAY.
MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY MORNING MAY SEE A BRIEF FREEZE IN SOME
COLDEST EASTERN VALLEY LOCATIONS SUCH AS AREAS AROUND WILLCOX AND
SULPHUR SPRINGS VALLEY.

12Z ECMWF CONTINUES TO PLAY CATCH-UP WITH OTHER MEDIUM RANGE MODELS
FOR NEXT WEEK. CUT-OFF SCENARIO ENSEMBLE MEMBERS DROPPING AWAY EACH
RUN WITH OPERATIONAL ECMWF PHASING CLOSER TO OTHER MODEL RESOLUTION.
LATEST HAS CUT-OFF IN WESTERN NEW MEXICO MONDAY NIGHT INSTEAD OF
NORTHERN SONORA. WITH GFS ON THE FAST AND FARTHER EAST SIDE OF THE
SPECTRUM AND BLEND OF THE TWO MIGHT WORK PRETTY WELL.

TROPICAL DEPRESSION HAS ORGANIZED INTO TROPICAL STORM VANCE ABOUT
415 MILES SOUTH OF ACAPULCO MEXICO. AFTER A WOBBLE SOUTHWEST THE
OFFICIAL NHC TRACK REASONABLY RECURVES WEST TO NORTH TO A POSITION
OFF THE WEST COAST OF MEXICO OVER THE NEXT 5 DAYS. TROUGH SHOULD NOT
BE IN A POSITION TO DRAW ANY MOISTURE FROM THIS FEATURE INTO OUR
AREA NEXT WEEK...HOWEVER TEXAS AND THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY MAY BE
ANOTHER MATTER.

&&

.TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...YOUTUBE...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/TUCSON

CURRENT DISCUSSION...MOLLERE
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...MEYER/CERNIGLIA







000
FXUS65 KPSR 310355
AFDPSR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PHOENIX AZ
855 PM MST THU OCT 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ANOTHER DAY OF WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES IS EXPECTED ON FRIDAY.
SIGNIFICANTLY COOLER READINGS ARE THEN EXPECTED FOR THE WEEKEND...
AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AND COLD FRONT PUSH THROUGH THE DESERT
SOUTHWEST. HIGHS IN THE LOWER DESERTS WILL DROP INTO THE UPPER 70S
ON SATURDAY AND FALL TO THE LOWER 70S ON SUNDAY. IN ADDITION TO THE
COOLER TEMPERATURES...PERIODS OF BREEZY CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED
THROUGHOUT THE WEEKEND. RAIN CHANCES WILL BE SLIGHT AND CONFINED TO
THE HIGHER TERRAIN. A GRADUAL WARMING TREND WILL BEGIN MONDAY INTO
THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
VARIABLE HIGH CLOUDS CONTINUED STREAK ACROSS THE REGION AT 8 PM
AHEAD OF A WEAK DISTURBANCE THATS STILL FORECAST TO MOVE IN A
NORTHEASTWARD DIRECTION ACROSS SOUTHEAST CA/NORTHWEST AZ TONIGHT.
CLEARING IS EXPECTED FRIDAY...HOWEVER AS A SECOND AND MUCH LARGER
PACIFIC TROF APPROACHES THE WEST COAST FRIDAY...AFTERNOON SOUTH
WINDS IN THE 15 TO 25 MPH RANGE ARE LIKELY IN THE SOUTHEAST
CA/SOUTHWEST AZ CORRIDOR LATE IN THE DAY...DIMINISHING FRIDAY
EVENING.

SATURDAY WILL BE THE WINDIEST DAY AS A MOSTLY DRY COLD FRONT ENTERS
AZ FROM THE WEST DURING THE AFTERNOON. THE WINDIEST PERIOD IN OUR
FORECAST AREA...SOUTHEAST CA TO SOUTH CENTRAL AZ...WILL DEVELOP
BETWEEN 10 AM AND 6 PM SAT WITH WINDS GENERALLY FROM THE SOUTHWEST
IN THE 15 TO 25 MPH RANGE...WITH FREQUENT GUSTS TO 30 MPH. HOWEVER
GUSTS TO 35 MPH ARE LIKELY IN THE MOUNTAINS OF SOUTHERN GILA COUNTY
SATURDAY AFTERNOON..

UPDATES THIS EVENING WERE TO INCREASE WIND SPEEDS FOR THE ABOVE
SELECTED AREAS MENTIONED ABOVE FRIDAY AND SATURDAY AFTERNOON.
OTHERWISE REMAINDER OF DRY AND COOLER FORECASTS THIS WEEKEND LOOK
OK. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION BELOW STILL APPLIES.


.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...156 PM MST...

HIGH CLOUDINESS HAS GRADUALLY MOVED FROM SE CA ACROSS SW AZ THROUGH
THE DAY TODAY...PUSHED NE INTO THE REGION BY A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
SPINNING OFF THE CA COAST. THIS HAS NOT DONE ANYTHING HOWEVER TO
TEMPER THE RISE OF SURFACE TEMPERATURES...WITH MOST REPORTING
STATIONS CURRENTLY AVERAGING 2 TO 3 DEGREES WARMER THAN THIS SAME
TIME ON WEDNESDAY.

HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING OVER THE WESTERN STATES IS RESPONSIBLE FOR THE
ABNORMALLY HIGH READINGS. THIS RIDGE THOUGH WILL GRADUALLY SHUNT TO
THE EAST...AS A MUCH STRONGER STORM SYSTEM BEGINS DIGGING FROM THE
PACIFIC NORTHWEST TOWARD THE SOUTHEAST. THE RIDGE WILL HOLD ITS
GROUND ON FRIDAY AND WE SHOULD SEE ANOTHER ABNORMALLY WARM DAY WITH
MINIMAL CLOUDINESS.

MODELS SHOW PWAT INCREASING FROM AROUND .40 INCH TODAY TO OVER .80
INCH BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON. SOUNDINGS FOR FRIDAY THOUGH SHOW MINIMAL
INSTABILITY. DESPITE THIS...CAN NOT RULE OUT AN ISOLATED SHOWER IN
THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF SOUTHERN GILA COUNTY.

SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...
AS THE STORM SYSTEM AND COLD FRONT MOVE INTO THE REGION FRIDAY NIGHT
INTO SATURDAY...THE PRIMARY IMPACT WILL BE THE MUCH COOLER
TEMPERATURE READINGS AND BREEZY WIND CONDITIONS. STRONGEST WINDS
WILL REMAIN OVER OUR SE CA ZONES...WITH WIND GUSTS OF 20 TO 25 KNOTS
POSSIBLE. ATM WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA IS NOT EXPECTED...THOUGH WE
WILL CONTINUE TO EVALUATE AS WE GET CLOSER TO THE WEEKEND. NO
APPRECIABLE MOISTURE IS EXPECTED WITH THIS SYSTEM...THOUGH THERE
COULD BE ENOUGH BOTH MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN
FOR SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS BOTH SATURDAY AND SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND
EARLY EVENING. INSTABILITY IS NOT THAT GREAT...SO CONVECTION THAT
DOES DEVELOP WILL LIKELY BE IN THE FORM OF RAIN SHOWERS.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...

ALOFT...THERE LOOKS TO BE TWO MAIN SHORT WAVE/VORT MAXES WITH THE
TROUGH THAT WILL AFFECT SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA AND ARIZONA THIS
WEEKEND. THE FIRST ONE PASSES JUST NORTHWEST OF OUR AREA EARLY
SATURDAY. THE SECOND ONE BRUSHES US LATER SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY. THE
SECOND ONE LOOKS TO HAVE THE BEST POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE PRECIP AS QG
FORCING WILL BE BETTER FOR OUR AREA AND THERE WILL BE COOLER AIR
MAKING PRECIP PROCESSES MORE EFFICIENT. HOWEVER...PRECIP CHANCES
WILL BE SLIGHT AND STILL CONFINED TO HIGHER TERRAIN AREAS. MAIN
IMPACT WILL BE THE NICE COOL DOWN AND BREEZY CONDITIONS. OUR WESTERN
AREAS WILL GET MOST OF THEIR COOLING ALL ON SATURDAY. OUR EASTERN
AREAS INCLUDING PHOENIX METRO WILL DROP ABOUT 10 DEGREES SATURDAY
THEN ANOTHER NOTABLE DROP FOR SUNDAY LEADING TO HIGHS IN THE LOW TO
MID 70S ACROSS THE LOWER DESERTS.

MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...
A COUPLE OF TRAILING VORT MAXES ARE ADVERTISED TO CARVE OUT A
PROMINENT SHORT WAVE TROUGH OVER THE AREA EARLY MONDAY INTO TUESDAY.
THE ECMWF HAS RETURNED TO THE IDEA OF DEVELOPING A CLOSED LOW WITHIN
THE BOTTOM OF THE TROUGH...CENTERED OVER PHOENIX BY 00Z
TUESDAY...WHICH IS A DEEPER SOLUTION THAN THE GFS. THE GEM HAS A
SIMILAR IDEA BUT IS FASTER WITH THE ARRIVAL AND DEPARTURE.
HOWEVER...THE ECMWF LOOKS TO BE AN OUTLIER WITH RESPECT TO ITS
ENSEMBLE...THE ECENS. ALSO...IT IS INDICATIVE OF LESS RUN TO RUN
CONSISTENCY. THE GFS IS WELL SUPPORTED BY THE GEFS AND FORECASTS
WERE WEIGHTED MORE HEAVILY TOWARD THAT SOLUTION. THUS MENTION OF
PRECIP CHANCES ENDS SUNDAY NIGHT AND A WARMING TREND STARTS TUESDAY
AS A RIDGE BEGINS BUILDING IN.

&&

.AVIATION...
SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA INCLUDING KPHX...KIWA AND KSDL...AND
SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA AND SOUTHWEST ARIZONA INCLUDING KIPL AND KBLH...

THROUGH 19Z FRI...VRBL CLOUDS AOA 25 THSD MSL. LIGHT WIND UNDER 8
KNOTS...HOWEVER SOUTH WIND INCREASING ALONG THE COLORADO RIVER
VALLEY AFTER 17Z FRI INTO THE 10 TO 15 KNOT RANGE.

AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDED TAFS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...
SLIGHTLY COOLER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL FILTER INTO THE
DISTRICT THE FIRST PART OF NEXT WEEK...BEFORE MODERATING THE LATTER
HALF OF THE WEEK. OCCASIONALLY GUSTY AFTERNOON NORTHWEST AND WEST
WINDS WILL BE COMMON SUNDAY AND MONDAY...WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 25 MPH
POSSIBLE ALONG RIDGE TOPS AND THROUGH FAVORED RIVER VALLEY
LOCATIONS. MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES WILL INITIALLY HOVER IN
A 20-40 PERCENT RANGE SUNDAY BUT WILL FALL INTO THE TEENS THE
REMAINDER OF THE WEEK AS DRIER AIR GRADUALLY OVERSPREADS THE AREA.
OTHERWISE...OVERNIGHT RECOVERY WILL BE GOOD WITH ONLY MINIMAL
CHANCES OF WETTING RAINS OVER HIGHER TERRAIN EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

AZ...NONE.

CA...NONE.

&&

$$

VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/PHOENIX

DISCUSSION...VASQUEZ/MCLANE/AJ
AVIATION...VASQUEZ
FIRE WEATHER...MO
















000
FXUS65 KFGZ 302243
AFDFGZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ
335 PM MST WED OCT 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING WARM DAYS AND COOL NIGHTS TO
THE AREA THROUGH FRIDAY. THIS WEEKEND...WINDY AND COLDER WEATHER
WILL DEVELOP AS A PACIFIC COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH ARIZONA. THIS
SYSTEM WILL BRING A FEW RAIN AND HIGH ELEVATION SNOW SHOWERS TO THE
AREA THIS WEEKEND. DRY WEATHER RETURNS TUESDAY WITH A SLOW WARMING
TREND.

&&

MADE ONLY MINOR CHANGES TO THE LATEST FORECAST PACKAGE...MAINLY TO
EMPHASIZE THAT THE BEST CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION WITH THE UPCOMING
WEEKEND SYSTEM WILL BE LATE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY.

TEMPERATURES THIS AFTERNOON HAVE BEEN 10+ DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL FOR
THIS TIME OF YEAR WITH JUST A FEW HIGH CLOUDS MOVING IN FROM THE
WEST THIS AFTERNOON. WITH ADDED CLOUD COVER AND INCREASING WIND
ALOFT...TONIGHT`S LOW SHOULD BE A BIT WARMER THAN LAST NIGHT.

ON FRIDAY...THE PACIFIC LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AND COLD FRONT WILL MOVE
CLOSER TO ARIZONA WITH INCREASING SOUTHERLY WINDS. A BRIEF SURGE OF
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IS FORECAST TO MOVE INTO NAVAJO AND APACHE
COUNTIES AND A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUES THERE. LOW
LEVEL WIND SPEEDS INCREASE FURTHER FRIDAY NIGHT WITH MOST LOCATIONS
SEEING BREEZY SOUTH WINDS AND MILD TEMPERATURES (WARMER THAN NORMAL
FOR THOSE TRICK-OR-TREATERS).

SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...STRONG WINDS ARE THE MAIN STORY ON SATURDAY AS
THE INITIAL PORTION OF THE WESTERN TROUGH AFFECTS THE AREA. THE
DONEY PARK AREA COULD SEE WIND GUSTS EXCEEDING 40 MPH AS EARLY AS
FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING. BY MID MORNING...WIDESPREAD
SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS OF 15 TO 30 MPH AND GUSTS FROM 35 TO 50 MPH
ARE EXPECTED...WITH THE STRONGEST WINDS ALONG AND NORTH OF THE
MOGOLLON RIM. AREAS OF BLOWING DUST ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE NAVAJO
NATION. AS FAR AS PRECIP GOES THIS WEEKEND...WE WILL HAVE DECENT
DYNAMICS AND INCREASED MOISTURE ALONG AND BEHIND THE COLD FRONT
SATURDAY...BUT A RELATIVELY WARM LAYER ALOFT WILL LIMIT THE CHANCE
OF PRECIPITATION. PRECIP CHANCES ARE GENERALLY 10-20 PERCENT
SATURDAY FOR MOST OF THE NORTHLAND...BUT AROUND 40 PERCENT ON THE
KAIBAB PLATEAU.

MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT THE MAIN TROUGH AND COLDER AIR
ALOFT WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION LATE SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY.
THE CHANCE OF SHOWERS INCREASES FOR THIS TIME FRAME AS MID LEVEL
INSTABILITY INCREASES. SNOW LEVELS COULD FALL TO AROUND 7000 FEET OR
JUST BELOW ON SUNDAY. SOME LIGHT ACCUMULATION POSSIBLE OVER THE
KAIBAB PLATEAU AND THE SAN FRANCISCO PEAKS. DAYTIME TEMPERATURES
WILL BE THE COLDEST OF THE SEASON...NOT GETTING OUT OF THE 40S FOR
THE MOUNTAINS.

MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...MODELS HAVE SLOWED THE DEPARTURE OF THE
TROUGH AND COLD AIRMASS OUT OF ARIZONA...SO A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
SHOWERS CONTINUES MONDAY WITH WELL BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES. A SLOW
WARMING TREND IN DAYTIME TEMPERATURES STARTS TUESDAY AND CONTINUES
THROUGH THE WEEK. HOWEVER...OVERNIGHT LOWS ARE LIKELY TO BE THE
COLDEST OF THE YEAR SO FAR...FREEZING TEMPS POSSIBLE DOWN TO THE
4500 FT ELEVATION LEVEL.

&&

.AVIATION...
FOR THE 00Z PACKAGE...EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS AND LIGHT WINDS UNDER
PERIODIC HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING. SOUTH WINDS WILL
INCREASE AFT 17Z FRIDAY BECOMING 15-20 KTS WITH GUSTS OF 25-30 KTS.
THERE WILL BE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF -SHRA/-TSRA FROM KAYENTA TO PAYSON
EASTWARD FRIDAY AFTERNOON. AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR
AMENDMENTS.
&&

.FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC.....JJ
AVIATION...MCS

FOR NORTHERN ARIZONA WEATHER INFORMATION VISIT
WEATHER.GOV/FLAGSTAFF







000
FXUS65 KTWC 302129
AFDTWC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ
230 PM MST THU OCT 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...WARMER TEMPERATURES THROUGH FRIDAY AS AN AREA OF HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE REGION. HIGH TEMPERATURES ON FRIDAY WILL
AGAIN BE AT LEAST 7 TO 10 DEGREES ABOVE AVERAGE WITH NEAR RECORD
HIGHS POSSIBLE IN A FEW SPOTS. A TROUGH WILL BRING GUSTY WINDS OVER
THE WEEKEND WITH SIGNIFICANTLY COOLER AIR EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE
COLDEST OVERNIGHT LOWS OF THE SEASON SO FAR ARE EXPECTED MONDAY
NIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING.

&&

.DISCUSSION...INCREASING MID AND UPPER LEVEL SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE
FILTERING IN FROM THE SOUTHWEST ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE RIDGE
PHASING OVERHEAD TODAY. WE HAD A RAPID WARM-UP TO 90 AT TIA BY
NOON...BUT THINGS HAVE LEVELED OUT QUITE A BIT. MID LEVEL RIDGE AXIS
WELL EAST OF US ON FRIDAY BUT LOWER LEVEL THICKNESS TRENDS STILL
STRONG WITH SIMILAR POTENTIAL AFTERNOON HIGHS FRIDAY AFTERNOON.
SO...ANOTHER AFTERNOON WITH HIGHS AROUND 10+ DEGREES ABOVE CLIMO.

MODEST MID LEVEL MOISTURE INCREASE FROM THE SOUTHWEST WITH A BIT OF
H7 MOISTURE FROM THE SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE
RIDGE AXIS WILL PROBABLY BRING SOME VIRGA TO THE AREA LATE FRIDAY
INTO FRIDAY EVENING...WITH A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS OR DRYISH
THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE FROM TUCSON EASTWARD.

WEEKEND TROUGH STILL ON TRACK BUT MAY BE A TAD SLOW FOR MUCH OF OUR
PART OF THE STATE SUNDAY. WE WILL REALIZE FULL COOLING ACROSS OUR
CWA BY MONDAY...BUT WHAT`S LEFT OF THE TAIL END OF THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY MAY NOT BE DONE WITH OUR CWA SUNDAY AFTERNOON. AREAS STILL
IN THE WARM SECTOR WOULD BE QUITE A BIT WARMER THAN AREAS FURTHER
WEST...SUCH AS DOUGLAS WARMER THAN PHOENIX. GUSTY WINDS BUT BELOW
ADVISORY CRITERIA OVER THE WEEKEND.

COOLEST TEMPERATURES OF THE SEASON SO FAR MONDAY INTO TUESDAY.
MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY MORNING MAY SEE A BRIEF FREEZE IN SOME
COLDEST EASTERN VALLEY LOCATIONS SUCH AS AREAS AROUND WILLCOX AND
SULPHUR SPRINGS VALLEY.

12Z ECMWF CONTINUES TO PLAY CATCH-UP WITH OTHER MEDIUM RANGE MODELS
FOR NEXT WEEK. CUT-OFF SCENARIO ENSEMBLE MEMBERS DROPPING AWAY EACH
RUN WITH OPERATIONAL ECMWF PHASING CLOSER TO OTHER MODEL RESOLUTION.
LATEST HAS CUT-OFF IN WESTERN NEW MEXICO MONDAY NIGHT INSTEAD OF
NORTHERN SONORA. WITH GFS ON THE FAST AND FARTHER EAST SIDE OF THE
SPECTRUM AND BLEND OF THE TWO MIGHT WORK PRETTY WELL.

TROPICAL DEPRESSION HAS ORGANIZED INTO TROPICAL STORM VANCE ABOUT
415 MILES SOUTH OF ACAPULCO MEXICO. AFTER A WOBBLE SOUTHWEST THE
OFFICIAL NHC TRACK REASONABLY RECURVES WEST TO NORTH TO A POSITION
OFF THE WEST COAST OF MEXICO OVER THE NEXT 5 DAYS. TROUGH SHOULD NOT
BE IN A POSITION TO DRAW ANY MOISTURE FROM THIS FEATURE INTO OUR
AREA NEXT WEEK...HOWEVER TEXAS AND THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY MAY BE
ANOTHER MATTER.

&&

.AVIATION...VALID THRU 01/00Z.
VFR CONDITIONS AT ALL TERMINALS.  SCT-BKN CIRRUS CLOUDS AOA 20K FT
AGL WILL REMAIN OVER THE AREA THRU 31/18Z THEN FEW-SCT CUMULUS
CLOUDS NEAR 9K FT WITH A BIT OF CIRRUS ABOVE EXPECTED THEREAFTER.
ISOLD RW-/TRW- WILL DEVELOP NEAR THE NEW MEXICO BORDER AFT 31/18Z.
SURFACE WINDS GENERALLY LESS THAN 10 KTS THRU 31/03Z...THEN
INCREASING SOUTHEAST FLOW MAINLY TUCSON EASTWARD TONIGHT THROUGH
FRIDAY WITH SURFACE WIND AT 10-15 KTS.  AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT
UPDATED FOR TAF AMENDMENTS.  CERNIGLIA

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...AN APPROACHING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BRING ABOUT
CHANGING CONDITIONS THROUGH THE WEEKEND.  EXPECT ANOTHER HOT DAY
FRIDAY WITH A SOUTHEAST FLOW BRINGING MOISTURE AND A SMALL CHANCE OF
SHOWERS TO THE REGION LATE FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT.  THE APPROACHING
LOW WILL THEN PRODUCE GUSTY SOUTHWEST TO WEST WINDS SATURDAY AND
SUNDAY AS IT PASSES NORTH OF THE AREA.  IT WILL ALSO GENERATE A FEW
SHOWERS ON SUNDAY ALONG WITH FORCING MUCH COOLER AIR ACROSS THE
REGION.  THEN DRY CONDITIONS AND BELOW AVERAGE TEMPERATURES ARE
EXPECTED THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK.  CERNIGLIA

&&

.TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...YOUTUBE...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/TUCSON

MEYER/CERNIGLIA







000
FXUS65 KPSR 302058 CCA
AFDPSR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PHOENIX AZ
156 PM MST THU OCT 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ANOTHER DAY OF WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES IS EXPECTED ON FRIDAY.
SIGNIFICANTLY COOLER READINGS ARE THEN EXPECTED FOR THE WEEKEND...
AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AND COLD FRONT PUSH THROUGH THE DESERT
SOUTHWEST. HIGHS IN THE LOWER DESERTS WILL DROP INTO THE UPPER 70S
ON SATURDAY AND FALL TO THE LOWER 70S ON SUNDAY. IN ADDITION TO THE
COOLER TEMPERATURES...PERIODS OF BREEZY CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED
THROUGHOUT THE WEEKEND. RAIN CHANCES WILL BE SLIGHT AND CONFINED TO
THE HIGHER TERRAIN. A GRADUAL WARMING TREND WILL BEGIN MONDAY INTO
THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
HIGH CLOUDINESS HAS GRADUALLY MOVED FROM SE CA ACROSS SW AZ THROUGH
THE DAY TODAY...PUSHED NE INTO THE REGION BY A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
SPINNING OFF THE CA COAST. THIS HAS NOT DONE ANYTHING HOWEVER TO
TEMPER THE RISE OF SURFACE TEMPERATURES...WITH MOST REPORTING
STATIONS CURRENTLY AVERAGING 2 TO 3 DEGREES WARMER THAN THIS SAME
TIME ON WEDNESDAY.

HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING OVER THE WESTERN STATES IS RESPONSIBLE FOR THE
ABNORMALLY HIGH READINGS. THIS RIDGE THOUGH WILL GRADUALLY SHUNT TO
THE EAST...AS A MUCH STRONGER STORM SYSTEM BEGINS DIGGING FROM THE
PACIFIC NORTHWEST TOWARD THE SOUTHEAST. THE RIDGE WILL HOLD ITS
GROUND ON FRIDAY AND WE SHOULD SEE ANOTHER ABNORMALLY WARM DAY WITH
MINIMAL CLOUDINESS.

MODELS SHOW PWAT INCREASING FROM AROUND .40 INCH TODAY TO OVER .80
INCH BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON. SOUNDINGS FOR FRIDAY THOUGH SHOW MINIMAL
INSTABILITY. DESPITE THIS...CAN NOT RULE OUT AN ISOLATED SHOWER IN
THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF SOUTHERN GILA COUNTY.

SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...
AS THE STORM SYSTEM AND COLD FRONT MOVE INTO THE REGION FRIDAY NIGHT
INTO SATURDAY...THE PRIMARY IMPACT WILL BE THE MUCH COOLER
TEMPERATURE READINGS AND BREEZY WIND CONDITIONS. STRONGEST WINDS
WILL REMAIN OVER OUR SE CA ZONES...WITH WIND GUSTS OF 20 TO 25 KNOTS
POSSIBLE. ATM WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA IS NOT EXPECTED...THOUGH WE
WILL CONTINUE TO EVALUATE AS WE GET CLOSER TO THE WEEKEND. NO
APPRECIABLE MOISTURE IS EXPECTED WITH THIS SYSTEM...THOUGH THERE
COULD BE ENOUGH BOTH MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN
FOR SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS BOTH SATURDAY AND SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND
EARLY EVENING. INSTABILITY IS NOT THAT GREAT...SO CONVECTION THAT
DOES DEVELOP WILL LIKELY BE IN THE FORM OF RAIN SHOWERS.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...

ALOFT...THERE LOOKS TO BE TWO MAIN SHORT WAVE/VORT MAXES WITH THE
TROUGH THAT WILL AFFECT SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA AND ARIZONA THIS
WEEKEND. THE FIRST ONE PASSES JUST NORTHWEST OF OUR AREA EARLY
SATURDAY. THE SECOND ONE BRUSHES US LATER SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY. THE
SECOND ONE LOOKS TO HAVE THE BEST POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE PRECIP AS QG
FORCING WILL BE BETTER FOR OUR AREA AND THERE WILL BE COOLER AIR
MAKING PRECIP PROCESSES MORE EFFICIENT. HOWEVER...PRECIP CHANCES
WILL BE SLIGHT AND STILL CONFINED TO HIGHER TERRAIN AREAS. MAIN
IMPACT WILL BE THE NICE COOL DOWN AND BREEZY CONDITIONS. OUR WESTERN
AREAS WILL GET MOST OF THEIR COOLING ALL ON SATURDAY. OUR EASTERN
AREAS INCLUDING PHOENIX METRO WILL DROP ABOUT 10 DEGREES SATURDAY
THEN ANOTHER NOTABLE DROP FOR SUNDAY LEADING TO HIGHS IN THE LOW TO
MID 70S ACROSS THE LOWER DESERTS.

MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...
A COUPLE OF TRAILING VORT MAXES ARE ADVERTISED TO CARVE OUT A
PROMINENT SHORT WAVE TROUGH OVER THE AREA EARLY MONDAY INTO TUESDAY.
THE ECMWF HAS RETURNED TO THE IDEA OF DEVELOPING A CLOSED LOW WITHIN
THE BOTTOM OF THE TROUGH...CENTERED OVER PHOENIX BY 00Z
TUESDAY...WHICH IS A DEEPER SOLUTION THAN THE GFS. THE GEM HAS A
SIMILAR IDEA BUT IS FASTER WITH THE ARRIVAL AND DEPARTURE.
HOWEVER...THE ECMWF LOOKS TO BE AN OUTLIER WITH RESPECT TO ITS
ENSEMBLE...THE ECENS. ALSO...IT IS INDICATIVE OF LESS RUN TO RUN
CONSISTENCY. THE GFS IS WELL SUPPORTED BY THE GEFS AND FORECASTS
WERE WEIGHTED MORE HEAVILY TOWARD THAT SOLUTION. THUS MENTION OF
PRECIP CHANCES ENDS SUNDAY NIGHT AND A WARMING TREND STARTS TUESDAY
AS A RIDGE BEGINS BUILDING IN.

&&

.AVIATION...
SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA INCLUDING KPHX...KIWA AND KSDL...AND
SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA AND SOUTHWEST ARIZONA INCLUDING KIPL AND KBLH...

NO AVIATION IMPACTS THROUGH FRIDAY AFTERNOON WITH ONLY PERIODIC
THICKER HIGH CLOUDS ABOVE 20K FT. A TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT
WILL ALLOW FOR SFC WINDS TO REMAIN EASTERLY AT CNTRL ARIZONA
TERMINALS LONGER THAN USUAL THIS AFTERNOON...AS WELL AS FRIDAY
AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL BE LIGHTER AND MORE VARIABLE ACROSS SERN
CALIFORNIA...BUT WILL GENERALLY CONTAIN SOME WESTERLY TRAJECTORY.

AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDED TAFS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...
SLIGHTLY COOLER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL FILTER INTO THE
DISTRICT THE FIRST PART OF NEXT WEEK...BEFORE MODERATING THE LATTER
HALF OF THE WEEK. OCCASIONALLY GUSTY AFTERNOON NORTHWEST AND WEST
WINDS WILL BE COMMON SUNDAY AND MONDAY...WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 25 MPH
POSSIBLE ALONG RIDGE TOPS AND THROUGH FAVORED RIVER VALLEY
LOCATIONS. MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES WILL INITIALLY HOVER IN
A 20-40 PERCENT RANGE SUNDAY BUT WILL FALL INTO THE TEENS THE
REMAINDER OF THE WEEK AS DRIER AIR GRADUALLY OVERSPREADS THE AREA.
OTHERWISE...OVERNIGHT RECOVERY WILL BE GOOD WITH ONLY MINIMAL
CHANCES OF WETTING RAINS OVER HIGHER TERRAIN EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

AZ...NONE.

CA...NONE.

&&

$$

VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/PHOENIX

DISCUSSION...MCLANE/AJ
AVIATION...MO
FIRE WEATHER...MO













000
FXUS65 KPSR 302056
AFDPSR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PHOENIX AZ
156 PM MST THU OCT 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ANOTHER DAY OF WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES IS EXPECTED ON FRIDAY.
SIGNIFICANTLY COOLER READINGS ARE THEN EXPECTED FOR THE WEEKEND...
AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AND COLD FRONT PUSH THROUGH THE DESERT
SOUTHWEST. HIGHS IN THE LOWER DESERTS WILL DROP INTO THE UPPER 70S
ON SATURDAY AND FALL TO THE LOWER 70S ON SUNDAY. IN ADDITION TO THE
COOLER TEMPERATURES...PERIODS OF BREEZY CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED
THROUGHOUT THE WEEKEND. RAIN CHANCES WILL BE SLIGHT AND CONFINED TO
THE HIGHER TERRAIN. A GRADUAL WARMING TREND WILL BEGIN MONDAY INTO
THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
HIGH CLOUDINESS HAS GRADUALLY MOVED FROM SE CA ACROSS SW AZ THROUGH
THE DAY TODAY...PUSHED NE INTO THE REGION BY A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
SPINNING OFF THE CA COAST. THIS HAS NOT DONE ANYTHING HOWEVER TO
TEMPER THE RISE OF SURFACE TEMPERATURES...WITH MOST REPORTING
STATIONS CURRENTLY AVERAGING 2 TO 3 DEGREES WARMER THAN THIS SAME
TIME ON WEDNESDAY.

HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING OVER THE WESTERN STATES IS RESPONSIBLE FOR THE
ABNORMALLY HIGH READINGS. THIS RIDGE THOUGH WILL GRADUALLY SHUNT TO
THE EAST..AS A MUCH STRONGER STORM SYSTEM BEGINS DIGGING FROM THE
PACIFIC NORTHWEST TOWARD THE SOUTHEAST. THE RIDGE WILL HOLD ITS
GROUND ON FRIDAY AND WE SHOULD SEE ANOTHER ABNORMALLY WARM DAY WITH
MINIMAL CLOUDINESS.

MODELS SHOW PWAT INCREASING FROM AROUND .40 INCH TODAY TO OVER .80
INCH BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON. SOUNDINGS FOR FRIDAY THOUGH SHOW MINIMAL
INSTABILITY. DESPITE THIS...CAN NOT RULE OUT AN ISOLATED SHOWER IN
THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF SOUTHERN GILA COUNTY.

SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...
AS THE STORM SYSTEM AND COLD FRONT MOVE INTO THE REGION FRIDAY NIGHT
INTO SATURDAY...THE PRIMARY IMPACT WILL BE THE MUCH COOLER
TEMPERATURE READINGS AND BREEZY WIND CONDITIONS. STRONGEST WINDS
WILL REMAIN OVER OUR SE CA ZONES...WITH WIND GUSTS OF 20 TO 25 KNOTS
POSSIBLE. ATM WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA IS NOT EXPECTED...THOUGH WE
WILL CONTINUE TO EVALUATE AS WE GET CLOSER TO THE WEEKEND. NO
APPRECIABLE MOISTURE IS EXPECTED WITH THIS SYSTEM...THOUGH THERE
COULD BE ENOUGH BOTH MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN
FOR SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS BOTH SATURDAY AND SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND
EARLY EVENING. INSTABILITY IS NOT THAT GREAT...SO CONVECTION THAT
DOES DEVELOP WILL LIKELY BE IN THE FORM OF RAIN SHOWERS.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...

ALOFT...THERE LOOKS TO BE TWO MAIN SHORT WAVE/VORT MAXES WITH THE
TROUGH THAT WILL AFFECT SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA AND ARIZONA THIS
WEEKEND. THE FIRST ONE PASSES JUST NORTHWEST OF OUR AREA EARLY
SATURDAY. THE SECOND ONE BRUSHES US LATER SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY. THE
SECOND ONE LOOKS TO HAVE THE BEST POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE PRECIP AS QG
FORCING WILL BE BETTER FOR OUR AREA AND THERE WILL BE COOLER AIR
MAKING PRECIP PROCESSES MORE EFFICIENT. HOWEVER...PRECIP CHANCES
WILL BE SLIGHT AND STILL CONFINED TO HIGHER TERRAIN AREAS. MAIN
IMPACT WILL BE THE NICE COOL DOWN AND BREEZY CONDITIONS. OUR WESTERN
AREAS WILL GET MOST OF THEIR COOLING ALL ON SATURDAY. OUR EASTERN
AREAS INCLUDING PHOENIX METRO WILL DROP ABOUT 10 DEGREES SATURDAY
THEN ANOTHER NOTABLE DROP FOR SUNDAY LEADING TO HIGHS IN THE LOW TO
MID 70S ACROSS THE LOWER DESERTS.

MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...
A COUPLE OF TRAILING VORT MAXES ARE ADVERTISED TO CARVE OUT A
PROMINENT SHORT WAVE TROUGH OVER THE AREA EARLY MONDAY INTO TUESDAY.
THE ECMWF HAS RETURNED TO THE IDEA OF DEVELOPING A CLOSED LOW WITHIN
THE BOTTOM OF THE TROUGH...CENTERED OVER PHOENIX BY 00Z
TUESDAY...WHICH IS A DEEPER SOLUTION THAN THE GFS. THE GEM HAS A
SIMILAR IDEA BUT IS FASTER WITH THE ARRIVAL AND DEPARTURE.
HOWEVER...THE ECMWF LOOKS TO BE AN OUTLIER WITH RESPECT TO ITS
ENSEMBLE...THE ECENS. ALSO...IT IS INDICATIVE OF LESS RUN TO RUN
CONSISTENCY. THE GFS IS WELL SUPPORTED BY THE GEFS AND FORECASTS
WERE WEIGHTED MORE HEAVILY TOWARD THAT SOLUTION. THUS MENTION OF
PRECIP CHANCES ENDS SUNDAY NIGHT AND A WARMING TREND STARTS TUESDAY
AS A RIDGE BEGINS BUILDING IN.

&&

.AVIATION...
SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA INCLUDING KPHX...KIWA AND KSDL...AND
SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA AND SOUTHWEST ARIZONA INCLUDING KIPL AND KBLH...

NO AVIATION IMPACTS THROUGH FRIDAY AFTERNOON WITH ONLY PERIODIC
THICKER HIGH CLOUDS ABOVE 20K FT. A TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT
WILL ALLOW FOR SFC WINDS TO REMAIN EASTERLY AT CNTRL ARIZONA
TERMINALS LONGER THAN USUAL THIS AFTERNOON...AS WELL AS FRIDAY
AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL BE LIGHTER AND MORE VARIABLE ACROSS SERN
CALIFORNIA...BUT WILL GENERALLY CONTAIN SOME WESTERLY TRAJECTORY.

AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDED TAFS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...
SLIGHTLY COOLER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL FILTER INTO THE
DISTRICT THE FIRST PART OF NEXT WEEK...BEFORE MODERATING THE LATTER
HALF OF THE WEEK. OCCASIONALLY GUSTY AFTERNOON NORTHWEST AND WEST
WINDS WILL BE COMMON SUNDAY AND MONDAY...WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 25 MPH
POSSIBLE ALONG RIDGE TOPS AND THROUGH FAVORED RIVER VALLEY
LOCATIONS. MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES WILL INITIALLY HOVER IN
A 20-40 PERCENT RANGE SUNDAY BUT WILL FALL INTO THE TEENS THE
REMAINDER OF THE WEEK AS DRIER AIR GRADUALLY OVERSPREADS THE AREA.
OTHERWISE...OVERNIGHT RECOVERY WILL BE GOOD WITH ONLY MINIMAL
CHANCES OF WETTING RAINS OVER HIGHER TERRAIN EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

AZ...NONE.

CA...NONE.

&&

$$

VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/PHOENIX

DISCUSSION...MCLANE/AJ
AVIATION...MO
FIRE WEATHER...MO












000
FXUS65 KTWC 301639
AFDTWC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ
935 AM MST THU OCT 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...WARMER TEMPERATURES THROUGH FRIDAY AS AN AREA OF HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE REGION. HIGH TEMPERATURES ON FRIDAY WILL BE
AT LEAST 7 TO 10 DEGREES ABOVE AVERAGE WITH NEAR RECORD HIGHS
POSSIBLE IN A FEW SPOTS. A TROUGH WILL BRING GUSTY WINDS OVER THE
WEEKEND WITH SIGNIFICANTLY COOLER AIR BY EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...FAIRLY DRY AS EXPECTED WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER AROUND
.3 TO .4 OF AN INCH ACROSS SOUTHEAST ARIZONA AND SURFACE DEWPTS IN
THE 30S AND 40S. INCREASING MID AND UPPER LEVEL SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE
FILTERING IN FROM THE SOUTHWEST ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE RIDGE
PHASING OVERHEAD TODAY. THEY PROBABLY WON`T BE THICK ENOUGH TO
MITIGATE THE HEATING TRENDS MUCH (AND CAN SOMETIMES EVEN HELP A
LITTLE). SO TODAY AND FRIDAY AROUND 10+ DEGREES ABOVE CLIMO WITH A
FEW WEAKER RECORDS IN JEOPARDY FRIDAY AFTERNOON. MID LEVEL RIDGE
AXIS WELL EAST OF US ON FRIDAY BUT LOWER LEVEL THICKNESS TRENDS
STILL STRONG WITH SIMILAR POTENTIAL AFTERNOON HIGHS FRIDAY AFTERNOON.

MODEST MID LEVEL MOISTURE INCREASE FROM THE SOUTHWEST WITH LOW LEVEL
FROM THE SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST WILL PROBABLY BRING SOME VIRGA TO THE
AREA LATE FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY EVENING...WITH A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS OR
DRYISH THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE FROM TUCSON EASTWARD.

WEEKEND TROUGH STILL ON TRACK BUT MAY BE A TAD SLOW FOR MUCH OF OUR
PART OF THE STATE SUNDAY. WE WILL REALIZE FULL COOLING ACROSS OUR
CWA BY MONDAY...BUT WHAT`S LEFT OF THE TAIL END OF THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY MAY NOT BE THROUGH ALL OF OUR CWA SUNDAY AFTERNOON. AREAS
STILL IN THE WARM SECTOR WOULD BE QUITE A BIT WARMER THAN AREAS
FURTHER WEST. GUSTY WINDS BUT BELOW ADVISORY CRITERIA.

STILL LOOKING AT ECMWF CUT-OFF SCENARIOS NEXT WEEK WITH SOME
SKEPTICISM DUE TO ENSEMBLE MEAN TRENDS AND BETTER CONTINUITY WITH
THE REMAINING MEDIUM RANGE MODELS. IT IS SLOWLY TRENDING FURTHER
EAST AND NOT AS STRONG WITH THE CUT-OFF WITH EACH MODEL RUN...BUT
CONTINUES TO BE THE DEEPEST AND SLOWEST. BLEND OF ECWMF/GFS
PREFERRED.

AREA OF LOW PRESSURE HAS ORGANIZED INTO A TROPICAL DEPRESSION ABOUT
380 MILES SOUTH OF ACAPULCO MEXICO AND IS EXPECTED TO BECOME
TROPICAL STORM VANCE LATER TODAY OR THIS EVENING. OPERATIONAL ECMWF
AND EVEN SLOWER AND DEEPER ENSEMBLE MEMBERS ARE NO LONGER DRAWING AS
MUCH MOISTURE FROM THIS FEATURE TOWARD OUR AREA NEXT WEEK...SHUNTING
MOST OF IT EAST. OTHER MODELS INCLUDING GFS MUCH FURTHER EAST.

&&

.AVIATION...VALID THRU 31/16Z.
VFR CONDITIONS AT ALL TERMINALS. INCREASING CIRRUS CLOUDS AOA 20K FT
AGL OVERSPREADING THE AREA FROM WEST TO EAST. SURFACE WIND GENERALLY
LESS THAN 10 KTS THRU 31/03Z...THEN INCREASING SOUTHEAST FLOW
TONIGHT WITH SURFACE WIND AT 10-15 KTS. AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT
UPDATED FOR TAF AMENDMENTS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...WARM AND DRY CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS
SOUTHEAST ARIZONA THROUGH TONIGHT. A LIGHT SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST FLOW
PATTERN WILL BEGIN TODAY...STRENGTHENING TONIGHT AND ESPECIALLY ON
FRIDAY AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM. THIS SYSTEM WILL
BRING A FEW SHOWERS OVER MAINLY THE EASTERN AREAS LATE FRIDAY
THROUGH SUNDAY. THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL ALSO RESULT IN GUSTY
SOUTHWEST TO WEST WINDS ON SATURDAY AND SUNDAY AS IT PASSES NORTH OF
THE AREA. BELOW AVERAGE TEMPERATURES ARE THEN EXPECTED BEHIND THIS
SYSTEM THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...YOUTUBE...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/TUCSON

MEYER






000
FXUS65 KTWC 301639
AFDTWC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ
935 AM MST THU OCT 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...WARMER TEMPERATURES THROUGH FRIDAY AS AN AREA OF HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE REGION. HIGH TEMPERATURES ON FRIDAY WILL BE
AT LEAST 7 TO 10 DEGREES ABOVE AVERAGE WITH NEAR RECORD HIGHS
POSSIBLE IN A FEW SPOTS. A TROUGH WILL BRING GUSTY WINDS OVER THE
WEEKEND WITH SIGNIFICANTLY COOLER AIR BY EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...FAIRLY DRY AS EXPECTED WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER AROUND
.3 TO .4 OF AN INCH ACROSS SOUTHEAST ARIZONA AND SURFACE DEWPTS IN
THE 30S AND 40S. INCREASING MID AND UPPER LEVEL SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE
FILTERING IN FROM THE SOUTHWEST ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE RIDGE
PHASING OVERHEAD TODAY. THEY PROBABLY WON`T BE THICK ENOUGH TO
MITIGATE THE HEATING TRENDS MUCH (AND CAN SOMETIMES EVEN HELP A
LITTLE). SO TODAY AND FRIDAY AROUND 10+ DEGREES ABOVE CLIMO WITH A
FEW WEAKER RECORDS IN JEOPARDY FRIDAY AFTERNOON. MID LEVEL RIDGE
AXIS WELL EAST OF US ON FRIDAY BUT LOWER LEVEL THICKNESS TRENDS
STILL STRONG WITH SIMILAR POTENTIAL AFTERNOON HIGHS FRIDAY AFTERNOON.

MODEST MID LEVEL MOISTURE INCREASE FROM THE SOUTHWEST WITH LOW LEVEL
FROM THE SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST WILL PROBABLY BRING SOME VIRGA TO THE
AREA LATE FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY EVENING...WITH A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS OR
DRYISH THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE FROM TUCSON EASTWARD.

WEEKEND TROUGH STILL ON TRACK BUT MAY BE A TAD SLOW FOR MUCH OF OUR
PART OF THE STATE SUNDAY. WE WILL REALIZE FULL COOLING ACROSS OUR
CWA BY MONDAY...BUT WHAT`S LEFT OF THE TAIL END OF THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY MAY NOT BE THROUGH ALL OF OUR CWA SUNDAY AFTERNOON. AREAS
STILL IN THE WARM SECTOR WOULD BE QUITE A BIT WARMER THAN AREAS
FURTHER WEST. GUSTY WINDS BUT BELOW ADVISORY CRITERIA.

STILL LOOKING AT ECMWF CUT-OFF SCENARIOS NEXT WEEK WITH SOME
SKEPTICISM DUE TO ENSEMBLE MEAN TRENDS AND BETTER CONTINUITY WITH
THE REMAINING MEDIUM RANGE MODELS. IT IS SLOWLY TRENDING FURTHER
EAST AND NOT AS STRONG WITH THE CUT-OFF WITH EACH MODEL RUN...BUT
CONTINUES TO BE THE DEEPEST AND SLOWEST. BLEND OF ECWMF/GFS
PREFERRED.

AREA OF LOW PRESSURE HAS ORGANIZED INTO A TROPICAL DEPRESSION ABOUT
380 MILES SOUTH OF ACAPULCO MEXICO AND IS EXPECTED TO BECOME
TROPICAL STORM VANCE LATER TODAY OR THIS EVENING. OPERATIONAL ECMWF
AND EVEN SLOWER AND DEEPER ENSEMBLE MEMBERS ARE NO LONGER DRAWING AS
MUCH MOISTURE FROM THIS FEATURE TOWARD OUR AREA NEXT WEEK...SHUNTING
MOST OF IT EAST. OTHER MODELS INCLUDING GFS MUCH FURTHER EAST.

&&

.AVIATION...VALID THRU 31/16Z.
VFR CONDITIONS AT ALL TERMINALS. INCREASING CIRRUS CLOUDS AOA 20K FT
AGL OVERSPREADING THE AREA FROM WEST TO EAST. SURFACE WIND GENERALLY
LESS THAN 10 KTS THRU 31/03Z...THEN INCREASING SOUTHEAST FLOW
TONIGHT WITH SURFACE WIND AT 10-15 KTS. AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT
UPDATED FOR TAF AMENDMENTS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...WARM AND DRY CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS
SOUTHEAST ARIZONA THROUGH TONIGHT. A LIGHT SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST FLOW
PATTERN WILL BEGIN TODAY...STRENGTHENING TONIGHT AND ESPECIALLY ON
FRIDAY AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM. THIS SYSTEM WILL
BRING A FEW SHOWERS OVER MAINLY THE EASTERN AREAS LATE FRIDAY
THROUGH SUNDAY. THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL ALSO RESULT IN GUSTY
SOUTHWEST TO WEST WINDS ON SATURDAY AND SUNDAY AS IT PASSES NORTH OF
THE AREA. BELOW AVERAGE TEMPERATURES ARE THEN EXPECTED BEHIND THIS
SYSTEM THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...YOUTUBE...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/TUCSON

MEYER






000
FXUS65 KFGZ 301617
AFDFGZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ
917 AM MST WED OCT 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING WARM DAYS AND COOL NIGHTS TO
THE AREA THROUGH FRIDAY. THIS WEEKEND...WINDY AND COLDER WEATHER
WILL DEVELOP AS A PACIFIC COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH ARIZONA. THIS
SYSTEM WILL BRING A FEW RAIN AND HIGH ELEVATION SNOW SHOWERS TO THE
AREA THIS WEEKEND. DRY WEATHER RETURNS MONDAY WITH SLOW WARMING
TREND.

&&

.DISCUSSION...A FEW HIGH CLOUDS WILL ENTER THE REGION FROM THE WEST
LATER TODAY WITH OTHERWISE WARM AND DRY CONDITIONS THIS AFTERNOON.
CURRENT FORECASTS IN GOOD SHAPE.

.PREV DISCUSSION...(405 AM MST)...

MADE ONLY MINOR CHANGES TO THE LATEST FORECAST PACKAGE.
PROGS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH SUNDAY.

FOR TODAY...THE MID LEVEL RIDGE AXIS IS CROSSING ARIZONA. MAX
TEMPS TO BE SIMILAR TO WEDNESDAYS WITH LIGHT AFTERNOON WINDS FOR
MOST AREAS. THE WESTERN HALVES OF YAVAPAI AND COCONINO SHOULD SEE
SOUTH SOUTHEAST WINDS 10-15 MPH THIS AFTERNOON. OCCASIONAL CIRRUS
CLOUDS TO MOVE ACROSS THE AREA STARTING THIS AFTERNOON.

ON FRIDAY...THE PACIFIC LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AND COLD FRONT WILL MOVE
CLOSER TO ARIZONA. EXPECT INCREASING SOUTHERLY FLOW ALOFT. A BRIEF
SURGE OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IS SHOWN INTO NAVAJO AND APACHE COUNTIES
AND THE SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUES THERE. LOW LEVEL
WIND SPEEDS INCREASE FURTHER FRIDAY NIGHT WITH MOST LOCATIONS SEEING
BREEZY SOUTH WINDS AND MILD TEMPERATURES.

SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...STRONG WINDS ARE THE MAIN STORY ON SATURDAY.
THE DONEY PARK AREA COULD SEE WIND GUSTS EXCEEDING 40 MPH EARLY
SATURDAY MORNING. BY MID MORNING...WIDESPREAD SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST
WINDS OF 15 TO 30 MPH AND GUSTS FROM 35 TO 50 MPH ARE EXPECTED. THE
FASTEST WINDS SHOULD BE ALONG AND NORTH OF THE MOGOLLON RIM. AREAS
OF BLOWING DUST ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE NAVAJO NATION. AS FAR AS
PRECIP GOES THIS WEEKEND...WE WILL HAVE DECENT DYNAMICS AND
INCREASED MOISTURE ALONG AND BEHIND THE COLD FRONT BUT A RELATIVELY
WARM LAYER ALOFT (ON SATURDAY) AND THIS SHOULD LIMIT THE CHANCE OF
PRECIPITATION. PRECIP CHANCES ARE GENERALLY AROUND 10 PERCENT
SATURDAY FOR MOST OF THE NORTHLAND...BUT IN THE 30-40 PERCENT RANGE
ON THE KAIBAB PLATEAU.

THE MAIN TROUGH AND COLDER AIR ALOFT SHOULD MOVE INTO THE REGION
LATE SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY. WE WILL MAINTAIN THE CHANCE OF
SHOWERS FOR THIS TIME FRAME AS MID LEVEL INSTABILITY INCREASES. SNOW
LEVELS COULD FALL TO AROUND 7000 FEET. DAYTIME TEMPERATURES WILL BE
THE COLDEST OF THE SEASON...NOT GETTING OUT OF THE 40S FOR THE
MOUNTAINS.

MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...WHILE DRY WEATHER IS FORECAST...THE
LATEST PROGS HAVE SLOWED THE DEPARTURE OF THE COLD AIRMASS OUT OF
ARIZONA UNTIL WEDNESDAY. EXPECT MAX AND MIN TEMPS TO BE 5 TO 10
DEGREES BELOW NORMAL THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING.

&&

.AVIATION...
FOR THE 18Z PACKAGE...EXPECT LIGHT WINDS AND VFR CONDITIONS UNDER
PERIODIC UPPER-LEVEL CLOUDS OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. AVIATION
DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDMENTS.

&&

.FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC.....JJ/DL
AVIATION...MCS

FOR NORTHERN ARIZONA WEATHER INFORMATION VISIT
WEATHER.GOV/FLAGSTAFF





000
FXUS65 KPSR 301549
AFDPSR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PHOENIX AZ
848 AM MST THU OCT 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO BE WELL ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH
FRIDAY...THOUGH THERE WILL BE SOME HIGH CLOUDS AROUND TODAY. OVER
THE WEEKEND...A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES INTO THE WESTERN STATES.
IT WILL BRING MUCH COOLER TEMPERATURES AND BREEZY CONDITIONS TO OUR
REGION...WITH HIGHS DROPPING INTO THE 70S ON THE LOWER DESERTS. RAIN
CHANCES WILL BE SLIGHT AND CONFINED TO THE HIGHER TERRAIN.
ANTICIPATE LITTLE CHANGE IN TEMPERATURES MONDAY... FOLLOWED BY A
WARMING TREND TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
SATELLITE THIS MORNING SHOWS PATCHES OF HIGH CLOUDINESS BEGINNING TO
MOVE INTO SE CA AND SW AZ JUST EAST OF A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
SPINNING OFF THE CALIFORNIA COAST. TRENDS AND MODEL GUIDANCE
INDICATE THE CLOUDINESS WILL CONTINUE PUSHING ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA THROUGH THIS EVENING. NOT EXPECTING THIS TO BE OPAQUE ENOUGH
THOUGH TO CAUSE MUCH EFFECT ON SURFACE HEATING. SO EXPECT TODAYS
HIGH TEMPERATURE READINGS TO ONCE AGAIN TO BE SEVERAL DEGREES ABOVE
NORMAL. IN FACT...AT 8 AM READINGS ACROSS THE REGION WERE AT OR
SLIGHTLY WARMER THAN 24 HOURS AGO.

EARLIER FORECAST PACKAGE WAS PRETTY MUCH ON TRACK. MINOR ADJUSTMENTS
WERE MADE TO SKY...WIND...TEMPERATURE...AND DEWPOINT GRIDS TO BETTER
ALIGN WITH OBSERVED CONDITIONS AND TRENDS.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
ISSUED 340 AM MST THU OCT 30 2014

TODAY AND FRIDAY...
CLEAR SKIES ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA EARLY THIS MORNING.
HOWEVER...THAT WILL CHANGE VERY QUICKLY AS A BATCH OF HIGH CLOUDS
MOVES IN FROM THE SOUTHWEST. HIGH CLOUDS SHOULD BE JUST THIN ENOUGH
TO ENABLE HIGH TEMPS TODAY TO BE AS WARM AS YESTERDAY. THE FEATURE
PRODUCING THE HIGH CLOUDS IS A WEAK UPPER LOW EMANATING FROM
SUBTROPICAL LATITUDES. IT IS BEING ADVECTED NORTHEASTWARD BY A MUCH
LARGER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM CURRENTLY CENTERED JUST WEST OF BRITISH
COLUMBIA. FRIDAY WILL SEE LESS CLOUDINESS AS THE LARGE SYSTEM DIGS
SOUTHWARD. THUS THERE WILL BE LITTLE CHANGE IN TEMPERATURES FRIDAY
WITH READINGS IN THE LOW 90S BEING COMMON ON THE LOWER DESERTS. OF
NOTE...THE SREF CONTINUES TO GENERATE SOME MODEST QPF OVER EASTERN
AND CENTRAL ARIZONA FRIDAY. THIS IS DUE LARGELY TO ADVECTING MORE
MOISTURE WESTWARD...FROM A BACKDOOR FRONT...COMPARED TO OTHER
MODELS. SOME OF THE HIGH RES NCEP MODELS PRODUCE SOME VERY SPOTTY
QPF IN CENTRAL ARIZONA...OUTSIDE OF OUR FORECAST AREA. GFS AND ECMWF
KEEP FRIDAY PRECIP NEAR NEW MEXICO BORDER. WILL KEEP FORECAST DRY.

SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...
THE SYSTEM TRACKS INLAND FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY. A DRY COLD
FRONT MOVES ACROSS OUR FORECAST AREA FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY.
THERE MAY BE SOME SEMBLANCE OF A FRONTAL CLOUD BAND WITH IT BUT
LIKELY THIS WILL BE SHALLOW. KEPT SLIGHT CHANCE FOR HIGHER TERRAIN
SATURDAY DUE TO OROGRAPHIC LIFT AIDING THE FRONTAL LIFT.
ALOFT...THERE LOOKS TO BE TWO MAIN SHORT WAVE/VORT MAXES WITH THE
TROUGH THAT WILL AFFECT SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA AND ARIZONA THIS
WEEKEND. THE FIRST ONE PASSES JUST NORTHWEST OF OUR AREA EARLY
SATURDAY. THE SECOND ONE BRUSHES US LATER SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY. THE
SECOND ONE LOOKS TO HAVE THE BEST POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE PRECIP AS QG
FORCING WILL BE BETTER FOR OUR AREA AND THERE WILL BE COOLER AIR
MAKING PRECIP PROCESSES MORE EFFICIENT. HOWEVER...PRECIP CHANCES
WILL BE SLIGHT AND STILL CONFINED TO HIGHER TERRAIN AREAS. MAIN
IMPACT WILL BE THE NICE COOL DOWN AND BREEZY CONDITIONS. OUR WESTERN
AREAS WILL GET MOST OF THEIR COOLING ALL ON SATURDAY. OUR EASTERN
AREAS INCLUDING PHOENIX METRO WILL DROP ABOUT 10 DEGREES SATURDAY
THEN ANOTHER NOTABLE DROP FOR SUNDAY LEADING TO HIGHS IN THE LOW TO
MID 70S ACROSS THE LOWER DESERTS.

MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...
A COUPLE OF TRAILING VORT MAXES ARE ADVERTISED TO CARVE OUT A
PROMINENT SHORT WAVE TROUGH OVER THE AREA EARLY MONDAY INTO TUESDAY.
THE ECMWF HAS RETURNED TO THE IDEA OF DEVELOPING A CLOSED LOW WITHIN
THE BOTTOM OF THE TROUGH...CENTERED OVER PHOENIX BY 00Z
TUESDAY...WHICH IS A DEEPER SOLUTION THAN THE GFS. THE GEM HAS A
SIMILAR IDEA BUT IS FASTER WITH THE ARRIVAL AND DEPARTURE.
HOWEVER...THE ECMWF LOOKS TO BE AN OUTLIER WITH RESPECT TO ITS
ENSEMBLE...THE ECENS. ALSO...IT IS INDICATIVE OF LESS RUN TO RUN
CONSISTENCY. THE GFS IS WELL SUPPORTED BY THE GEFS AND FORECASTS
WERE WEIGHTED MORE HEAVILY TOWARD THAT SOLUTION. THUS MENTION OF
PRECIP CHANCES ENDS SUNDAY NIGHT AND A WARMING TREND STARTS TUESDAY
AS A RIDGE BEGINS BUILDING IN.

&&

.AVIATION...
SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA INCLUDING KPHX...KIWA AND KSDL...SOUTHEAST
CALIFORNIA AND SOUTHWEST ARIZONA INCLUDING KIPL AND KBLH...

THROUGH 20Z THURSDAY...SLOWLY INCREASING HIGH CLOUDS AOA 25 THSD
FEET. LIGHT WIND UNDER 8 KNOTS.

AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDED TAFS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...
A SEASONABLY STRONG COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION SATURDAY
ALLOWING SLIGHTLY COOLER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES TO FILTER INTO THE
DISTRICT THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK. BEHIND THIS FRONTAL
PASSAGE...WIND SPEEDS WILL INCREASE AND BECOME OCCASIONALLY GUSTY
DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS...ESPECIALLY SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY.
GUSTS TO AROUND 30 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE ALONG RIDGE TOPS AND THROUGH
FAVORED RIVER VALLEY LOCATIONS. MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES
WILL INITIALLY ONLY FALL INTO A 25-40 PERCENT RANGE OVER THE
WEEKEND...BUT AS MUCH DRIER AIR MOVES INTO THE DISTRICT...HUMIDITIES
WILL FALL INTO THE TEENS MONDAY AND TUESDAY POSSIBLY LEADING TO A
SOMEWHAT LOCALIZED ELEVATED FIRE DANGER. OTHERWISE...OVERNIGHT
RECOVERY WILL BE GOOD...AND CONDITIONS BECOMING MORE TRANQUIL
TOWARDS THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&


.PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

AZ...NONE.

CA...NONE.

&&

$$

VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/PHOENIX

DISCUSSION...MCLANE/AJ
AVIATION...VASQUEZ
FIRE WEATHER...MO











000
FXUS65 KPSR 301226 CCA
AFDPSR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PHOENIX AZ
340 AM MST THU OCT 30 2014

CORRECTED TYPO

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO BE WELL ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH
FRIDAY...THOUGH THERE WILL BE SOME HIGH CLOUDS AROUND TODAY. OVER
THE WEEKEND...A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES INTO THE WESTERN STATES.
IT WILL BRING MUCH COOLER TEMPERATURES AND BREEZY CONDITIONS TO OUR
REGION...WITH HIGHS DROPPING INTO THE 70S ON THE LOWER DESERTS. RAIN
CHANCES WILL BE SLIGHT AND CONFINED TO THE HIGHER TERRAIN.
ANTICIPATE LITTLE CHANGE IN TEMPERATURES MONDAY... FOLLOWED BY A
WARMING TREND TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
TODAY AND FRIDAY...
CLEAR SKIES ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA EARLY THIS MORNING.
HOWEVER...THAT WILL CHANGE VERY QUICKLY AS A BATCH OF HIGH CLOUDS
MOVES IN FROM THE SOUTHWEST. HIGH CLOUDS SHOULD BE JUST THIN ENOUGH
TO ENABLE HIGH TEMPS TODAY TO BE AS WARM AS YESTERDAY. THE FEATURE
PRODUCING THE HIGH CLOUDS IS A WEAK UPPER LOW EMANATING FROM
SUBTROPICAL LATITUDES. IT IS BEING ADVECTED NORTHEASTWARD BY A MUCH
LARGER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM CURRENTLY CENTERED JUST WEST OF BRITISH
COLUMBIA. FRIDAY WILL SEE LESS CLOUDINESS AS THE LARGE SYSTEM DIGS
SOUTHWARD. THUS THERE WILL BE LITTLE CHANGE IN TEMPERATURES FRIDAY
WITH READINGS IN THE LOW 90S BEING COMMON ON THE LOWER DESERTS. OF
NOTE...THE SREF CONTINUES TO GENERATE SOME MODEST QPF OVER EASTERN
AND CENTRAL ARIZONA FRIDAY. THIS IS DUE LARGELY TO ADVECTING MORE
MOISTURE WESTWARD...FROM A BACKDOOR FRONT...COMPARED TO OTHER
MODELS. SOME OF THE HIGH RES NCEP MODELS PRODUCE SOME VERY SPOTTY
QPF IN CENTRAL ARIZONA...OUTSIDE OF OUR FORECAST AREA. GFS AND ECMWF
KEEP FRIDAY PRECIP NEAR NEW MEXICO BORDER. WILL KEEP FORECAST DRY.

SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...
THE SYSTEM TRACKS INLAND FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY. A DRY COLD
FRONT MOVES ACROSS OUR FORECAST AREA FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY.
THERE MAY BE SOME SEMBLANCE OF A FRONTAL CLOUD BAND WITH IT BUT
LIKELY THIS WILL BE SHALLOW. KEPT SLIGHT CHANCE FOR HIGHER TERRAIN
SATURDAY DUE TO OROGRAPHIC LIFT AIDING THE FRONTAL LIFT.
ALOFT...THERE LOOKS TO BE TWO MAIN SHORT WAVE/VORT MAXES WITH THE
TROUGH THAT WILL AFFECT SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA AND ARIZONA THIS
WEEKEND. THE FIRST ONE PASSES JUST NORTHWEST OF OUR AREA EARLY
SATURDAY. THE SECOND ONE BRUSHES US LATER SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY. THE
SECOND ONE LOOKS TO HAVE THE BEST POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE PRECIP AS QG
FORCING WILL BE BETTER FOR OUR AREA AND THERE WILL BE COOLER AIR
MAKING PRECIP PROCESSES MORE EFFICIENT. HOWEVER...PRECIP CHANCES
WILL BE SLIGHT AND STILL CONFINED TO HIGHER TERRAIN AREAS. MAIN
IMPACT WILL BE THE NICE COOL DOWN AND BREEZY CONDITIONS. OUR WESTERN
AREAS WILL GET MOST OF THEIR COOLING ALL ON SATURDAY. OUR EASTERN
AREAS INCLUDING PHOENIX METRO WILL DROP ABOUT 10 DEGREES SATURDAY
THEN ANOTHER NOTABLE DROP FOR SUNDAY LEADING TO HIGHS IN THE LOW TO
MID 70S ACROSS THE LOWER DESERTS.

MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...
A COUPLE OF TRAILING VORT MAXES ARE ADVERTISED TO CARVE OUT A
PROMINENT SHORT WAVE TROUGH OVER THE AREA EARLY MONDAY INTO TUESDAY.
THE ECMWF HAS RETURNED TO THE IDEA OF DEVELOPING A CLOSED LOW WITHIN
THE BOTTOM OF THE TROUGH...CENTERED OVER PHOENIX BY 00Z
TUESDAY...WHICH IS A DEEPER SOLUTION THAN THE GFS. THE GEM HAS A
SIMILAR IDEA BUT IS FASTER WITH THE ARRIVAL AND DEPARTURE.
HOWEVER...THE ECMWF LOOKS TO BE AN OUTLIER WITH RESPECT TO ITS
ENSEMBLE...THE ECENS. ALSO...IT IS INDICATIVE OF LESS RUN TO RUN
CONSISTENCY. THE GFS IS WELL SUPPORTED BY THE GEFS AND FORECASTS
WERE WEIGHTED MORE HEAVILY TOWARD THAT SOLUTION. THUS MENTION OF
PRECIP CHANCES ENDS SUNDAY NIGHT AND A WARMING TREND STARTS TUESDAY
AS A RIDGE BEGINS BUILDING IN.

&&

.AVIATION...
SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA INCLUDING KPHX...KIWA AND KSDL...SOUTHEAST
CALIFORNIA AND SOUTHWEST ARIZONA INCLUDING KIPL AND KBLH...

THROUGH 20Z THURSDAY...SLOWLY INCREASING HIGH CLOUDS AOA 25 THSD
FEET. LIGHT WIND UNDER 8 KNOTS.

AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDED TAFS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...
A SEASONABLY STRONG COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION SATURDAY
ALLOWING SLIGHTLY COOLER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES TO FILTER INTO THE
DISTRICT THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK. BEHIND THIS FRONTAL
PASSAGE...WIND SPEEDS WILL INCREASE AND BECOME OCCASIONALLY GUSTY
DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS...ESPECIALLY SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY.
GUSTS TO AROUND 30 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE ALONG RIDGE TOPS AND THROUGH
FAVORED RIVER VALLEY LOCATIONS. MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES
WILL INITIALLY ONLY FALL INTO A 25-40 PERCENT RANGE OVER THE
WEEKEND...BUT AS MUCH DRIER AIR MOVES INTO THE DISTRICT...HUMIDITIES
WILL FALL INTO THE TEENS MONDAY AND TUESDAY POSSIBLY LEADING TO A
SOMEWHAT LOCALIZED ELEVATED FIRE DANGER. OTHERWISE...OVERNIGHT
RECOVERY WILL BE GOOD...AND CONDITIONS BECOMING MORE TRANQUIL
TOWARDS THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&


.PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

AZ...NONE.

CA...NONE.

&&

$$

VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/PHOENIX

DISCUSSION...AJ
AVIATION...VASQUEZ
FIRE WEATHER...MO








000
FXUS65 KPSR 301210 AAA
AFDPSR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PHOENIX AZ
510 AM MST THU OCT 30 2014

.UPDATE...UPDATED AVIATION AND FIRE WEATHER DISCUSSIONS.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO BE WELL ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH
FRIDAY...THOUGH THERE WILL BE SOME HIGH CLOUDS AROUND TODAY. OVER
THE WEEKEND...A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES INTO THE WESTERN STATES.
IT WILL BRING BRINGING MUCH COOLER TEMPERATURES AND BREEZY
CONDITIONS TO OUR REGION...WITH HIGHS DROPPING INTO THE 70S ON THE
LOWER DESERTS. RAIN CHANCES WILL BE SLIGHT AND CONFINED TO THE
HIGHER TERRAIN. ANTICIPATE LITTLE CHANGE IN TEMPERATURES MONDAY...
FOLLOWED BY A WARMING TREND TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
TODAY AND FRIDAY...
CLEAR SKIES ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA EARLY THIS MORNING.
HOWEVER...THAT WILL CHANGE VERY QUICKLY AS A BATCH OF HIGH CLOUDS
MOVES IN FROM THE SOUTHWEST. HIGH CLOUDS SHOULD BE JUST THIN ENOUGH
TO ENABLE HIGH TEMPS TODAY TO BE AS WARM AS YESTERDAY. THE FEATURE
PRODUCING THE HIGH CLOUDS IS A WEAK UPPER LOW EMANATING FROM
SUBTROPICAL LATITUDES. IT IS BEING ADVECTED NORTHEASTWARD BY A MUCH
LARGER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM CURRENTLY CENTERED JUST WEST OF BRITISH
COLUMBIA. FRIDAY WILL SEE LESS CLOUDINESS AS THE LARGE SYSTEM DIGS
SOUTHWARD. THUS THERE WILL BE LITTLE CHANGE IN TEMPERATURES FRIDAY
WITH READINGS IN THE LOW 90S BEING COMMON ON THE LOWER DESERTS. OF
NOTE...THE SREF CONTINUES TO GENERATE SOME MODEST QPF OVER EASTERN
AND CENTRAL ARIZONA FRIDAY. THIS IS DUE LARGELY TO ADVECTING MORE
MOISTURE WESTWARD...FROM A BACKDOOR FRONT...COMPARED TO OTHER
MODELS. SOME OF THE HIGH RES NCEP MODELS PRODUCE SOME VERY SPOTTY
QPF IN CENTRAL ARIZONA...OUTSIDE OF OUR FORECAST AREA. GFS AND ECMWF
KEEP FRIDAY PRECIP NEAR NEW MEXICO BORDER. WILL KEEP FORECAST DRY.

SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...
THE SYSTEM TRACKS INLAND FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY. A DRY COLD
FRONT MOVES ACROSS OUR FORECAST AREA FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY.
THERE MAY BE SOME SEMBLANCE OF A FRONTAL CLOUD BAND WITH IT BUT
LIKELY THIS WILL BE SHALLOW. KEPT SLIGHT CHANCE FOR HIGHER TERRAIN
SATURDAY DUE TO OROGRAPHIC LIFT AIDING THE FRONTAL LIFT.
ALOFT...THERE LOOKS TO BE TWO MAIN SHORT WAVE/VORT MAXES WITH THE
TROUGH THAT WILL AFFECT SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA AND ARIZONA THIS
WEEKEND. THE FIRST ONE PASSES JUST NORTHWEST OF OUR AREA EARLY
SATURDAY. THE SECOND ONE BRUSHES US LATER SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY. THE
SECOND ONE LOOKS TO HAVE THE BEST POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE PRECIP AS QG
FORCING WILL BE BETTER FOR OUR AREA AND THERE WILL BE COOLER AIR
MAKING PRECIP PROCESSES MORE EFFICIENT. HOWEVER...PRECIP CHANCES
WILL BE SLIGHT AND STILL CONFINED TO HIGHER TERRAIN AREAS. MAIN
IMPACT WILL BE THE NICE COOL DOWN AND BREEZY CONDITIONS. OUR WESTERN
AREAS WILL GET MOST OF THEIR COOLING ALL ON SATURDAY. OUR EASTERN
AREAS INCLUDING PHOENIX METRO WILL DROP ABOUT 10 DEGREES SATURDAY
THEN ANOTHER NOTABLE DROP FOR SUNDAY LEADING TO HIGHS IN THE LOW TO
MID 70S ACROSS THE LOWER DESERTS.

MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...
A COUPLE OF TRAILING VORT MAXES ARE ADVERTISED TO CARVE OUT A
PROMINENT SHORT WAVE TROUGH OVER THE AREA EARLY MONDAY INTO TUESDAY.
THE ECMWF HAS RETURNED TO THE IDEA OF DEVELOPING A CLOSED LOW WITHIN
THE BOTTOM OF THE TROUGH...CENTERED OVER PHOENIX BY 00Z
TUESDAY...WHICH IS A DEEPER SOLUTION THAN THE GFS. THE GEM HAS A
SIMILAR IDEA BUT IS FASTER WITH THE ARRIVAL AND DEPARTURE.
HOWEVER...THE ECMWF LOOKS TO BE AN OUTLIER WITH RESPECT TO ITS
ENSEMBLE...THE ECENS. ALSO...IT IS INDICATIVE OF LESS RUN TO RUN
CONSISTENCY. THE GFS IS WELL SUPPORTED BY THE GEFS AND FORECASTS
WERE WEIGHTED MORE HEAVILY TOWARD THAT SOLUTION. THUS MENTION OF
PRECIP CHANCES ENDS SUNDAY NIGHT AND A WARMING TREND STARTS TUESDAY
AS A RIDGE BEGINS BUILDING IN.

&&

.AVIATION...
SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA INCLUDING KPHX...KIWA AND KSDL...SOUTHEAST
CALIFORNIA AND SOUTHWEST ARIZONA INCLUDING KIPL AND KBLH...

STRONG HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WILL PERSIST INTO THE DAY
FRIDAY...HOWEVER INCREASING HIGH CLOUDS WILL SPREAD THROUGH THE
RIDGE GIVING SCT-BKN HIGH CLOUD DECKS AT THE TERMINALS. EXPECT
MAINLY THIN BROKEN CONDITIONS AFTER 18Z AOA 25K FEET. WINDS WILL
CONTINUE TO BE QUITE LIGHT AND VARIABLE...FAVORING WEAK DIURNAL
TENDENCIES OVER THE CENTRAL AZ DESERTS OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. WINDS
TO FAVOR THE NORTH DOWN THE LOWER CO RIVER VALLEY. NO AVIATION
CONCERNS AT ANY TAF SITE THROUGH AT LEAST FRIDAY MORNING.

AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDED TAFS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...
A MODERATELY STRONG COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION SATURDAY
ALLOWING COOLER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES TO FILTER INTO THE DISTRICT
SUNDAY INTO THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK. BEHIND THIS FRONTAL
PASSAGE...WIND SPEEDS WILL INCREASE AND BECOME OCCASIONALLY GUSTY
DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS...ESPECIALLY SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY.
GUSTS TO AROUND 30 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE ALONG RIDGE TOPS AND THROUGH
FAVORED RIVER VALLEY LOCATIONS. MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES
WILL INITIALLY ONLY FALL INTO A 25-40 PERCENT RANGE OVER THE
WEEKEND...BUT AS MUCH DRIER AIR MOVES INTO THE DISTRICT...HUMIDITIES
WILL FALL INTO THE TEENS MONDAY AND TUESDAY POSSIBLY LEADING TO A
SOMEWHAT LOCALIZED ELEVATED FIRE DANGER. BY NEXT WEDNESDAY MOST OF
THE LOWER DESERTS WILL SEE RH VALUES BETWEEN 10 AND 15 PERCENT.
OTHERWISE...OVERNIGHT RECOVERY WILL BE GOOD...AND CONDITIONS
BECOMING MORE TRANQUIL TOWARDS THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&


.PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

AZ...NONE.

CA...NONE.

&&

$$

VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/PHOENIX

DISCUSSION...AJ
AVIATION...CB
FIRE WEATHER...MO/CB










000
FXUS65 KFGZ 301108
AFDFGZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ
405 AM MST WED OCT 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING WARM DAYS AND COOL NIGHTS TO
THE AREA THROUGH FRIDAY. THIS WEEKEND...WINDY AND COLDER WEATHER
WILL DEVELOP AS A PACIFIC COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH ARIZONA. THIS
SYSTEM WILL BRING A FEW RAIN AND HIGH ELEVATION SNOW SHOWERS TO THE
AREA THIS WEEKEND. DRY WEATHER RETURNS MONDAY WITH SLOW WARMING
TREND.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

MADE ONLY MINOR CHANGES TO THE LATEST FORECAST PACKAGE.
PROGS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH SUNDAY.

FOR TODAY...THE MID LEVEL RIDGE AXIS IS CROSSING ARIZONA. MAX
TEMPS TO BE SIMILAR TO WEDNESDAYS WITH LIGHT AFTERNOON WINDS FOR
MOST AREAS. THE WESTERN HALVES OF YAVAPAI AND COCONINO SHOULD SEE
SOUTH SOUTHEAST WINDS 10-15 MPH THIS AFTERNOON. OCCASIONAL CIRRUS
CLOUDS TO MOVE ACROSS THE AREA STARTING THIS AFTERNOON.

ON FRIDAY...THE PACIFIC LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AND COLD FRONT WILL MOVE
CLOSER TO ARIZONA. EXPECT INCREASING SOUTHERLY FLOW ALOFT. A BRIEF
SURGE OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IS SHOWN INTO NAVAJO AND APACHE COUNTIES
AND THE SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUES THERE. LOW LEVEL
WIND SPEEDS INCREASE FURTHER FRIDAY NIGHT WITH MOST LOCATIONS SEEING
BREEZY SOUTH WINDS AND MILD TEMPERATURES.

SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...STRONG WINDS ARE THE MAIN STORY ON SATURDAY.
THE DONEY PARK AREA COULD SEE WIND GUSTS EXCEEDING 40 MPH EARLY
SATURDAY MORNING. BY MID MORNING...WIDESPREAD SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST
WINDS OF 15 TO 30 MPH AND GUSTS FROM 35 TO 50 MPH ARE EXPECTED. THE
FASTEST WINDS SHOULD BE ALONG AND NORTH OF THE MOGOLLON RIM. AREAS
OF BLOWING DUST ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE NAVAJO NATION. AS FAR AS
PRECIP GOES THIS WEEKEND...WE WILL HAVE DECENT DYNAMICS AND
INCREASED MOISTURE ALONG AND BEHIND THE COLD FRONT BUT A RELATIVELY
WARM LAYER ALOFT (ON SATURDAY) AND THIS SHOULD LIMIT THE CHANCE OF
PRECIPITATION. PRECIP CHANCES ARE GENERALLY AROUND 10 PERCENT
SATURDAY FOR MOST OF THE NORTHLAND...BUT IN THE 30-40 PERCENT RANGE
ON THE KAIBAB PLATEAU.

THE MAIN TROUGH AND COLDER AIR ALOFT SHOULD MOVE INTO THE REGION
LATE SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY. WE WILL MAINTAIN THE CHANCE OF
SHOWERS FOR THIS TIME FRAME AS MID LEVEL INSTABILITY INCREASES. SNOW
LEVELS COULD FALL TO AROUND 7000 FEET. DAYTIME TEMPERATURES WILL BE
THE COLDEST OF THE SEASON...NOT GETTING OUT OF THE 40S FOR THE
MOUNTAINS.

MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...WHILE DRY WEATHER IS FORECAST...THE
LATEST PROGS HAVE SLOWED THE DEPARTURE OF THE COLD AIRMASS OUT OF
ARIZONA UNTIL WEDNESDAY. EXPECT MAX AND MIN TEMPS TO BE 5 TO 10
DEGREES BELOW NORMAL THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING.

&&

.AVIATION...
FOR THE 12Z PACKAGE...EXPECT LIGHT WINDS AND VFR CONDITIONS UNDER
PERIODIC UPPER-LEVEL CLOUDS OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. AVIATION
DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDMENTS.

&&

.FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC.........DL
AVIATION.......KD

FOR NORTHERN ARIZONA WEATHER INFORMATION VISIT
WEATHER.GOV/FLAGSTAFF











000
FXUS65 KPSR 301042
AFDPSR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PHOENIX AZ
340 AM MST THU OCT 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO BE WELL ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH
FRIDAY...THOUGH THERE WILL BE SOME HIGH CLOUDS AROUND TODAY. OVER
THE WEEKEND...A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES INTO THE WESTERN STATES.
IT WILL BRING BRINGING MUCH COOLER TEMPERATURES AND BREEZY
CONDITIONS TO OUR REGION...WITH HIGHS DROPPING INTO THE 70S ON THE
LOWER DESERTS. RAIN CHANCES WILL BE SLIGHT AND CONFINED TO THE
HIGHER TERRAIN. ANTICIPATE LITTLE CHANGE IN TEMPERATURES MONDAY...
FOLLOWED BY A WARMING TREND TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
TODAY AND FRIDAY...
CLEAR SKIES ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA EARLY THIS MORNING.
HOWEVER...THAT WILL CHANGE VERY QUICKLY AS A BATCH OF HIGH CLOUDS
MOVES IN FROM THE SOUTHWEST. HIGH CLOUDS SHOULD BE JUST THIN ENOUGH
TO ENABLE HIGH TEMPS TODAY TO BE AS WARM AS YESTERDAY. THE FEATURE
PRODUCING THE HIGH CLOUDS IS A WEAK UPPER LOW EMANATING FROM
SUBTROPICAL LATITUDES. IT IS BEING ADVECTED NORTHEASTWARD BY A MUCH
LARGER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM CURRENTLY CENTERED JUST WEST OF BRITISH
COLUMBIA. FRIDAY WILL SEE LESS CLOUDINESS AS THE LARGE SYSTEM DIGS
SOUTHWARD. THUS THERE WILL BE LITTLE CHANGE IN TEMPERATURES FRIDAY
WITH READINGS IN THE LOW 90S BEING COMMON ON THE LOWER DESERTS. OF
NOTE...THE SREF CONTINUES TO GENERATE SOME MODEST QPF OVER EASTERN
AND CENTRAL ARIZONA FRIDAY. THIS IS DUE LARGELY TO ADVECTING MORE
MOISTURE WESTWARD...FROM A BACKDOOR FRONT...COMPARED TO OTHER
MODELS. SOME OF THE HIGH RES NCEP MODELS PRODUCE SOME VERY SPOTTY
QPF IN CENTRAL ARIZONA...OUTSIDE OF OUR FORECAST AREA. GFS AND ECMWF
KEEP FRIDAY PRECIP NEAR NEW MEXICO BORDER. WILL KEEP FORECAST DRY.

SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...
THE SYSTEM TRACKS INLAND FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY. A DRY COLD
FRONT MOVES ACROSS OUR FORECAST AREA FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY.
THERE MAY BE SOME SEMBLANCE OF A FRONTAL CLOUD BAND WITH IT BUT
LIKELY THIS WILL BE SHALLOW. KEPT SLIGHT CHANCE FOR HIGHER TERRAIN
SATURDAY DUE TO OROGRAPHIC LIFT AIDING THE FRONTAL LIFT.
ALOFT...THERE LOOKS TO BE TWO MAIN SHORT WAVE/VORT MAXES WITH THE
TROUGH THAT WILL AFFECT SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA AND ARIZONA THIS
WEEKEND. THE FIRST ONE PASSES JUST NORTHWEST OF OUR AREA EARLY
SATURDAY. THE SECOND ONE BRUSHES US LATER SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY. THE
SECOND ONE LOOKS TO HAVE THE BEST POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE PRECIP AS QG
FORCING WILL BE BETTER FOR OUR AREA AND THERE WILL BE COOLER AIR
MAKING PRECIP PROCESSES MORE EFFICIENT. HOWEVER...PRECIP CHANCES
WILL BE SLIGHT AND STILL CONFINED TO HIGHER TERRAIN AREAS. MAIN
IMPACT WILL BE THE NICE COOL DOWN AND BREEZY CONDITIONS. OUR WESTERN
AREAS WILL GET MOST OF THEIR COOLING ALL ON SATURDAY. OUR EASTERN
AREAS INCLUDING PHOENIX METRO WILL DROP ABOUT 10 DEGREES SATURDAY
THEN ANOTHER NOTABLE DROP FOR SUNDAY LEADING TO HIGHS IN THE LOW TO
MID 70S ACROSS THE LOWER DESERTS.

MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...
A COUPLE OF TRAILING VORT MAXES ARE ADVERTISED TO CARVE OUT A
PROMINENT SHORT WAVE TROUGH OVER THE AREA EARLY MONDAY INTO TUESDAY.
THE ECMWF HAS RETURNED TO THE IDEA OF DEVELOPING A CLOSED LOW WITHIN
THE BOTTOM OF THE TROUGH...CENTERED OVER PHOENIX BY 00Z
TUESDAY...WHICH IS A DEEPER SOLUTION THAN THE GFS. THE GEM HAS A
SIMILAR IDEA BUT IS FASTER WITH THE ARRIVAL AND DEPARTURE.
HOWEVER...THE ECMWF LOOKS TO BE AN OUTLIER WITH RESPECT TO ITS
ENSEMBLE...THE ECENS. ALSO...IT IS INDICATIVE OF LESS RUN TO RUN
CONSISTENCY. THE GFS IS WELL SUPPORTED BY THE GEFS AND FORECASTS
WERE WEIGHTED MORE HEAVILY TOWARD THAT SOLUTION. THUS MENTION OF
PRECIP CHANCES ENDS SUNDAY NIGHT AND A WARMING TREND STARTS TUESDAY
AS A RIDGE BEGINS BUILDING IN.

&&

.AVIATION...
SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA INCLUDING KPHX...KIWA AND KSDL...SOUTHEAST
CALIFORNIA AND SOUTHWEST ARIZONA INCLUDING KIPL AND KBLH...

THROUGH 20Z THURSDAY...SLOWLY INCREASING HIGH CLOUDS AOA 25 THSD
FEET. LIGHT WIND UNDER 8 KNOTS.

AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDED TAFS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...
A SEASONABLY STRONG COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION SATURDAY
ALLOWING SLIGHTLY COOLER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES TO FILTER INTO THE
DISTRICT THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK. BEHIND THIS FRONTAL
PASSAGE...WIND SPEEDS WILL INCREASE AND BECOME OCCASIONALLY GUSTY
DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS...ESPECIALLY SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY.
GUSTS TO AROUND 30 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE ALONG RIDGE TOPS AND THROUGH
FAVORED RIVER VALLEY LOCATIONS. MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES
WILL INITIALLY ONLY FALL INTO A 25-40 PERCENT RANGE OVER THE
WEEKEND...BUT AS MUCH DRIER AIR MOVES INTO THE DISTRICT...HUMIDITIES
WILL FALL INTO THE TEENS MONDAY AND TUESDAY POSSIBLY LEADING TO A
SOMEWHAT LOCALIZED ELEVATED FIRE DANGER. OTHERWISE...OVERNIGHT
RECOVERY WILL BE GOOD...AND CONDITIONS BECOMING MORE TRANQUIL
TOWARDS THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&


.PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

AZ...NONE.

CA...NONE.

&&

$$

VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/PHOENIX

DISCUSSION...AJ
AVIATION...VASQUEZ
FIRE WEATHER...MO







000
FXUS65 KPSR 301042
AFDPSR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PHOENIX AZ
340 AM MST THU OCT 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO BE WELL ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH
FRIDAY...THOUGH THERE WILL BE SOME HIGH CLOUDS AROUND TODAY. OVER
THE WEEKEND...A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES INTO THE WESTERN STATES.
IT WILL BRING BRINGING MUCH COOLER TEMPERATURES AND BREEZY
CONDITIONS TO OUR REGION...WITH HIGHS DROPPING INTO THE 70S ON THE
LOWER DESERTS. RAIN CHANCES WILL BE SLIGHT AND CONFINED TO THE
HIGHER TERRAIN. ANTICIPATE LITTLE CHANGE IN TEMPERATURES MONDAY...
FOLLOWED BY A WARMING TREND TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
TODAY AND FRIDAY...
CLEAR SKIES ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA EARLY THIS MORNING.
HOWEVER...THAT WILL CHANGE VERY QUICKLY AS A BATCH OF HIGH CLOUDS
MOVES IN FROM THE SOUTHWEST. HIGH CLOUDS SHOULD BE JUST THIN ENOUGH
TO ENABLE HIGH TEMPS TODAY TO BE AS WARM AS YESTERDAY. THE FEATURE
PRODUCING THE HIGH CLOUDS IS A WEAK UPPER LOW EMANATING FROM
SUBTROPICAL LATITUDES. IT IS BEING ADVECTED NORTHEASTWARD BY A MUCH
LARGER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM CURRENTLY CENTERED JUST WEST OF BRITISH
COLUMBIA. FRIDAY WILL SEE LESS CLOUDINESS AS THE LARGE SYSTEM DIGS
SOUTHWARD. THUS THERE WILL BE LITTLE CHANGE IN TEMPERATURES FRIDAY
WITH READINGS IN THE LOW 90S BEING COMMON ON THE LOWER DESERTS. OF
NOTE...THE SREF CONTINUES TO GENERATE SOME MODEST QPF OVER EASTERN
AND CENTRAL ARIZONA FRIDAY. THIS IS DUE LARGELY TO ADVECTING MORE
MOISTURE WESTWARD...FROM A BACKDOOR FRONT...COMPARED TO OTHER
MODELS. SOME OF THE HIGH RES NCEP MODELS PRODUCE SOME VERY SPOTTY
QPF IN CENTRAL ARIZONA...OUTSIDE OF OUR FORECAST AREA. GFS AND ECMWF
KEEP FRIDAY PRECIP NEAR NEW MEXICO BORDER. WILL KEEP FORECAST DRY.

SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...
THE SYSTEM TRACKS INLAND FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY. A DRY COLD
FRONT MOVES ACROSS OUR FORECAST AREA FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY.
THERE MAY BE SOME SEMBLANCE OF A FRONTAL CLOUD BAND WITH IT BUT
LIKELY THIS WILL BE SHALLOW. KEPT SLIGHT CHANCE FOR HIGHER TERRAIN
SATURDAY DUE TO OROGRAPHIC LIFT AIDING THE FRONTAL LIFT.
ALOFT...THERE LOOKS TO BE TWO MAIN SHORT WAVE/VORT MAXES WITH THE
TROUGH THAT WILL AFFECT SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA AND ARIZONA THIS
WEEKEND. THE FIRST ONE PASSES JUST NORTHWEST OF OUR AREA EARLY
SATURDAY. THE SECOND ONE BRUSHES US LATER SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY. THE
SECOND ONE LOOKS TO HAVE THE BEST POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE PRECIP AS QG
FORCING WILL BE BETTER FOR OUR AREA AND THERE WILL BE COOLER AIR
MAKING PRECIP PROCESSES MORE EFFICIENT. HOWEVER...PRECIP CHANCES
WILL BE SLIGHT AND STILL CONFINED TO HIGHER TERRAIN AREAS. MAIN
IMPACT WILL BE THE NICE COOL DOWN AND BREEZY CONDITIONS. OUR WESTERN
AREAS WILL GET MOST OF THEIR COOLING ALL ON SATURDAY. OUR EASTERN
AREAS INCLUDING PHOENIX METRO WILL DROP ABOUT 10 DEGREES SATURDAY
THEN ANOTHER NOTABLE DROP FOR SUNDAY LEADING TO HIGHS IN THE LOW TO
MID 70S ACROSS THE LOWER DESERTS.

MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...
A COUPLE OF TRAILING VORT MAXES ARE ADVERTISED TO CARVE OUT A
PROMINENT SHORT WAVE TROUGH OVER THE AREA EARLY MONDAY INTO TUESDAY.
THE ECMWF HAS RETURNED TO THE IDEA OF DEVELOPING A CLOSED LOW WITHIN
THE BOTTOM OF THE TROUGH...CENTERED OVER PHOENIX BY 00Z
TUESDAY...WHICH IS A DEEPER SOLUTION THAN THE GFS. THE GEM HAS A
SIMILAR IDEA BUT IS FASTER WITH THE ARRIVAL AND DEPARTURE.
HOWEVER...THE ECMWF LOOKS TO BE AN OUTLIER WITH RESPECT TO ITS
ENSEMBLE...THE ECENS. ALSO...IT IS INDICATIVE OF LESS RUN TO RUN
CONSISTENCY. THE GFS IS WELL SUPPORTED BY THE GEFS AND FORECASTS
WERE WEIGHTED MORE HEAVILY TOWARD THAT SOLUTION. THUS MENTION OF
PRECIP CHANCES ENDS SUNDAY NIGHT AND A WARMING TREND STARTS TUESDAY
AS A RIDGE BEGINS BUILDING IN.

&&

.AVIATION...
SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA INCLUDING KPHX...KIWA AND KSDL...SOUTHEAST
CALIFORNIA AND SOUTHWEST ARIZONA INCLUDING KIPL AND KBLH...

THROUGH 20Z THURSDAY...SLOWLY INCREASING HIGH CLOUDS AOA 25 THSD
FEET. LIGHT WIND UNDER 8 KNOTS.

AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDED TAFS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...
A SEASONABLY STRONG COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION SATURDAY
ALLOWING SLIGHTLY COOLER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES TO FILTER INTO THE
DISTRICT THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK. BEHIND THIS FRONTAL
PASSAGE...WIND SPEEDS WILL INCREASE AND BECOME OCCASIONALLY GUSTY
DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS...ESPECIALLY SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY.
GUSTS TO AROUND 30 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE ALONG RIDGE TOPS AND THROUGH
FAVORED RIVER VALLEY LOCATIONS. MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES
WILL INITIALLY ONLY FALL INTO A 25-40 PERCENT RANGE OVER THE
WEEKEND...BUT AS MUCH DRIER AIR MOVES INTO THE DISTRICT...HUMIDITIES
WILL FALL INTO THE TEENS MONDAY AND TUESDAY POSSIBLY LEADING TO A
SOMEWHAT LOCALIZED ELEVATED FIRE DANGER. OTHERWISE...OVERNIGHT
RECOVERY WILL BE GOOD...AND CONDITIONS BECOMING MORE TRANQUIL
TOWARDS THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&


.PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

AZ...NONE.

CA...NONE.

&&

$$

VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/PHOENIX

DISCUSSION...AJ
AVIATION...VASQUEZ
FIRE WEATHER...MO







000
FXUS65 KTWC 300934
AFDTWC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ
235 AM MST THU OCT 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...WARMER TEMPERATURES THROUGH FRIDAY AS AN AREA OF HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE REGION. HIGH TEMPERATURES ON FRIDAY WILL BE
AT LEAST 7 TO 10 DEGREES ABOVE AVERAGE WITH NEAR RECORD HIGHS
POSSIBLE IN A FEW SPOTS. A TROUGH WILL BRING GUSTY WINDS OVER THE
WEEKEND WITH SIGNIFICANTLY COOLER AIR BY EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...THE SKY WAS CLEAR AS OF 2 AM ACROSS SE AZ. HOWEVER
THERE IS AN AREA OF HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS MOVING ACROSS SRN CA/NRN BAJA
THIS MORNING WHICH WILL OVERSPREAD THE AREA TODAY AS THE HIGH
PRESSURE RIDGE AXIS MOVES EAST ACROSS THE STATE. MODELS WERE SIMILAR
IN PLACING THE RIDGE AXIS OVER AZ/NM BORDER. HIGHS TODAY WILL BE 2-4
DEGREES WARMER THAN WEDNESDAY.

SOUTHWEST FLOW IN THE MID TO UPPER LEVELS FRIDAY WITH LOW LEVEL FLOW
OUT OF THE SOUTH PICKING UP A LITTLE BIT OF MOISTURE AND ADVECTING
IT NORTH ACROSS THE EASTERN ZONES. THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS EAST OF TUCSON. LITTLE CHANGE IN LOW-LEVEL
THICKNESS VALUES WITH HIGHS SIMILAR OR SLIGHTLY WARMER THAN TODAY.
SOME SPOTS WILL BE NEAR RECORD VALUES FOR HALLOWEEN.

BREEZY TO LOCALLY WINDY AND COOLER WEEKEND AS A PACIFIC TROF MAKES
ITS INFLUENCE ON OUR WEATHER. THE BEST CHANCE FOR SHOWERS WILL BE
ACROSS THE EAST-CENTRAL MOUNTAINS. TROF AXIS TO MOVE THROUGH THE
AREA LATE MONDAY INTO TUESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...VALID THRU 31/12Z.
VFR CONDITIONS AT ALL TERMINALS. SKC CONDITIONS THRU 30/17Z...THEN
INCREASING HIGH CIRRUS CLOUDS AOA 20K FT AGL OVERSPREADING THE AREA
FROM WEST TO EAST. SURFACE WIND GENERALLY LESS THAN 10 KTS THRU
31/03Z...THEN INCREASING SOUTHEAST FLOW TONIGHT WITH SURFACE WIND AT
10-15 KTS. AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR TAF AMENDMENTS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...WARM AND DRY CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS
SOUTHEAST ARIZONA THROUGH TONIGHT. A LIGHT SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST FLOW
PATTERN WILL BEGIN TODAY...STRENGTHENING TONIGHT AND ESPECIALLY ON
FRIDAY AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM. THIS SYSTEM WILL
BRING A FEW SHOWERS OVER MAINLY THE EASTERN AREAS LATE FRIDAY
THROUGH SUNDAY. THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL ALSO RESULT IN GUSTY
SOUTHWEST TO WEST WINDS ON SATURDAY AND SUNDAY AS IT PASSES NORTH OF
THE AREA. BELOW AVERAGE TEMPERATURES ARE THEN EXPECTED BEHIND THIS
SYSTEM...SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...YOUTUBE...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/TUCSON







000
FXUS65 KTWC 300356
AFDTWC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ
856 PM MST WED OCT 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...ANOTHER STRONG WARMING TREND THROUGH FRIDAY AS AN
AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE REGION. HIGH TEMPERATURES ON
FRIDAY WILL BE AT LEAST 7 TO 10 DEGREES ABOVE AVERAGE WITH NEAR
RECORD HIGHS POSSIBLE IN A FEW SPOTS. A TROUGH WILL BRING GUSTY
WINDS OVER THE WEEKEND WITH SIGNIFICANTLY COOLER AIR BY EARLY NEXT
WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...IR SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS CLEAR SKIES ACROSS ALL OF
SOUTHEAST ARIZONA...NOT TO MENTION MOST OF THE DESERT SOUTHWEST AS
WELL. AN APPROACHING PACIFIC LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM THAT IS CURRENTLY
WELL OFFSHORE OF THE NORTHERN BAJA PENINSULA HAS AN ABUNDANCE OF
MOSTLY HIGH LEVEL CLOUDINESS AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM AND THESE CLOUD
ELEMENTS ARE MOVING TOWARD THE SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA AND BAJA COASTS.
THESE CLOUDS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO MY FORECAST AREA
OVERNIGHT...BUT EXPECT SOME INCREASING HIGH CLOUDS DURING THE DAY ON
THURSDAY AS SOME OF THESE CLOUDS MOVE ACROSS THE AREA FROM TIME TO
TIME...BUT STILL EXPECTING MOSTLY SUNNY CONDITIONS.

AS OF 03Z (8 PM MST)...TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE REGION RANGED FROM
THE UPPER 50S TO THE UPPER 70S...WITH DOUGLAS REPORTING 58 DEGS AND
TUCSON 77 DEGREES. THESE READINGS ARE RIGHT ON TRACK WITH THE
INHERITED/EXPECTED OVERNIGHT LOW TEMPERATURES...SO NO CHANGES TO THE
TEMPERATURES ARE PLANNED AT THIS TIME. HOWEVER...WILL CONTINUE TO
MONITOR TEMPS THROUGH THE EVENING AND WILL MAKE CHANGES IF NEEDED.

FOR DETAILS REGARDING THE FORECAST BEYOND TONIGHT...PLEASE REFER TO
THE PREVIOUS DISCUSSION BELOW.

&&

.AVIATION...VALID THRU 31/00Z.
VFR CONDITIONS AT ALL TERMINALS. SKC CONDITIONS WITH NORMAL
DIURNALLY TERRAIN DRIVEN SURFACE WIND GENERALLY LESS THAN 10 KTS.
AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR TAF AMENDMENTS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...WARM AND DRY CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS
SOUTHEAST ARIZONA THROUGH THURSDAY. 20-FOOT WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND
TERRAIN DRIVEN THROUGH THURSDAY. A SOUTH-SOUTHEAST FLOW PATTERN WILL
OCCUR THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM AND COULD BRING A WEAK MOISTURE INCREASE AND A FEW SHOWERS
FOR EASTERN AREAS BY LATE FRIDAY. THIS SYSTEM WILL RESULT IN GUSTY
SOUTHWEST-WEST WINDS SATURDAY AND SUNDAY AS IT PASSES NORTH OF THE
AREA. BELOW AVERAGE TEMPERATURES ARE THEN EXPECTED BEHIND THIS
SYSTEM TO START THE NEW WEEK.

&&

.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...AFTER CONSIDERABLE DRYING YESTERDAY...WE HAVE
PICKED UP A LITTLE MOISTURE AGAIN BELOW 750MB WITH A WEAK EASTERLY
TO SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW IN LOW LEVELS. STILL LOOKING AT THE STRONG
RIDGE BUILDING IN FROM THE WEST AND INTENSIFYING OVERHEAD OVER THE
NEXT 48 HOURS WITH ANOTHER JUMP IN TEMPERATURES.

TO GO ALONG WITH THE NEAR RECORD HIGHS IN A FEW AREAS FRIDAY
AFTERNOON...WE`RE STARTING TO SEE SIGNS THAT THE WEAK MOISTURE
INCREASE ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE RIDGE LATE FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT
MAY BE DEEP ENOUGH FOR A FEW SHOWERS BY FRIDAY EVENING OR SO. A JUMP
IN 700MB DEWPTS FROM THE SOUTH IN AREAS FROM TUCSON EASTWARD...BUT
NOTHING HEAVY.

MEDIUM RANGE MODELS CONTINUE TO HANDLE THE DESERT SOUTHWEST RIDGE
AND THE SUBSEQUENT INITIAL TROUGH DEVELOPMENT NEAR THE WEST COAST
VERY CONSISTENTLY THROUGH SATURDAY. PREVIOUSLY...THE 00Z GFS/ECMWF
THEN SPLIT A DECENT AMOUNT OF ENERGY INTO A CUTOFF LOW THROUGH
ARIZONA AND EVEN INTO NORTHERN MEXICO NEXT TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY...HOWEVER ENSEMBLE MEANS HINTED THAT THIS WAS NOT GOING TO
END UP BEING A REASONABLE RESOLUTION WITH CUT-OFF POSITIONS BEING
CLOSER TO THE SLOWEST AND DEEPEST OUTLIERS. ALSO...NORMALIZED
STANDARD DEVIATION 500MB HEIGHT FIELDS (AS A FUNCTION OF LEAD TIME
AND GEOGRAPHICAL LOCATION OVER THE PAST 30 DAYS) WERE VERY
UNFAVORABLE FOR THE ECMWF CUT-OFF POSITION. SUBSEQUENTLY...THE 12Z
GFS TRENDED TOWARD A MORE PROGRESSIVE TROUGH...AND THE 12Z ECMWF
ALSO TRENDED THAT WAY WITH A WEAKER AND HIGHER LATITUDE CUT-OFF THAT
WAS ALSO A LITTLE FARTHER EAST. THIS WILL TEND TO SHUNT ANY HINT OF
SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE FIELDS EAST OF OUR AREA. STILL WORTH KEEPING
ONE EYE ON THE DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE AREA CURRENTLY SEVERAL
HUNDRED MILES SOUTH OF ACAPULCO THIS AFTERNOON.

SO THE MAIN STORY SHOULD BE GUSTY WINDS OVER THE WEEKEND (WITH
NORTHERN ARIZONA A LITTLE STRONGER) FOLLOWED BY SIGNIFICANTLY COOLER
AIR BY SUNDAY AND MONDAY. TIMING AND ORIENTATION OF THE TAIL END OF
THE FRAGMENTING COLD FRONT MAY SEE PORTIONS OF OUR CWA WARMER THAN
THE REST OF THE STATE SUNDAY AFTERNOON. COOL AIR SHOULD SETTLE IN
PLACE ACROSS OUR ENTIRE AREA BY MONDAY WITH MONDAY NIGHT INTO
TUESDAY MORNING THE COOLEST OVERNIGHT LOWS OF THE SEASON SO FAR. A
FEW COLDEST EASTERN VALLEY LOCATIONS COULD BRIEFLY TOUCH FREEZING
FOR THE FIRST TIME EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...YOUTUBE...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/TUCSON

CURRENT DISCUSSION...MOLLERE
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...MEYER/CERNIGLIA







000
FXUS65 KFGZ 300315
AFDFGZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ
815 PM MST WED OCT 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING WARM DAYS AND COOL NIGHTS TO
THE AREA THROUGH FRIDAY. BY THE WEEKEND...BREEZY TO WINDY AND COLDER
WEATHER WILL DEVELOP AS A PACIFIC WEATHER SYSTEM MOVES INTO ARIZONA.
THIS SYSTEM WILL BRING A FEW RAIN AND HIGH ELEVATION SNOW SHOWERS TO
THE AREA BY LATE SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS BRINGING
WARMER TEMPERATURES BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...A STRONG HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL SLOWLY MOVE ACROSS
THE WESTERN STATES OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS BRINGING CONTINUED WARM
TEMPERATURES EACH DAY WILL COOL NIGHTS THROUGH HALLOWEEN. WIND
SPEEDS WILL BE FAIRLY LIGHT TO BREEZY UNTIL THIS WEEKEND BECOMING
WINDY AHEAD OF A PACIFIC FRONTAL SYSTEM DUE TO ARRIVE SATURDAY
EVENING.

THE AFTERNOON GRIDDED FORECAST LOOKS GOOD...NO EVENING UPDATES.

&&

.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...

FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...FORECAST MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT A
VIGOROUS TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE
WESTERN STATES. FOR FRIDAY...INCREASING PRESSURE GRADIENTS WILL
RESULT IN BREEZY AFTERNOON CONDITIONS BUT WITH LITTLE CHANGE IN
TEMPERATURES. A BRIEF SURGE OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IS POSSIBLE IN
EASTERN ARIZONA FRIDAY...AND A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS HAS
BEEN INCLUDED IN THE FORECAST. PRESSURE GRADIENTS WILL STRENGTHEN
FURTHER FRIDAY NIGHT WITH MOST LOCATIONS SEEING BREEZY SOUTHWEST
WINDS. AS A RESULT, LOOK FOR MILD TEMPERATURES FOR THOSE
TRICK-OR-TREATERS FRIDAY EVENING (NOT AS COLD AS NORMAL FOR A
HALLOWEEN EVENING). BY EARLY SATURDAY AREAS DOWNWIND OF TERRAIN
FEATURES SUCH AS DONEY PARK COULD EXPERIENCE LOCAL WIND GUSTS IN
EXCESS OF 40 MPH. DURING THE DAY SATURDAY INTO THE EARLY EVENING, AS
A COLD FRONT APPROACHES, WIDESPREAD SOUTHWEST WINDS OF 15 TO 25 MPH
ARE EXPECTED WITH WIND GUSTS 35-50 MPH...STRONGEST ALONG AND NORTH
OF THE MOGOLLON RIM. DECENT DYNAMICS AND INCREASED MOISTURE WILL
MOVE IN ALONG AND BEHIND THE COLD FRONT BUT A RELATIVELY WARM LAYER
ALOFT WILL LIMIT THE CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION. STILL GENERALLY
LOOKING AT A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS FOR MOST LOCATIONS...WITH
SLIGHTLY BETTER CHANCES ALONG THE HIGHER TERRAIN FROM FLAGSTAFF
NORTHWARD. LATEST MODELS NOW SHOWING THE MAIN TROUGH AND COLDER AIR
ALOFT MOVING ACROSS THE REGION LATE SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY. WE
INCREASED THE CHANCE OF SHOWERS A BIT FOR THIS TIME FRAME...AS
INSTABILITY SHOULD INCREASE. SNOW LEVELS COULD FALL NEAR OR JUST
BELOW THE 7000 FOOT LEVEL. DAYTIME TEMPERATURES WILL ALSO BE THE
COLDEST OF THE SEASON...NOT GETTING OUT OF THE 40S FOR THE MOUNTAINS.

MONDAY AND TUESDAY...MODELS HAVE TRENDED TOWARD MOVING THE TROUGH
WELL EAST OF THE REGION...WITH DRIER AND SLOWLY WARMING CONDITIONS
EXPECTED.

&&

.AVIATION...
FOR THE 00Z PACKAGE...VFR CONDITIONS WITH CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT
WINDS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT
UPDATED FOR AMENDMENTS.

&&

.FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC.........JJ
AVIATION.......MCS

FOR NORTHERN ARIZONA WEATHER INFORMATION VISIT
WEATHER.GOV/FLAGSTAFF









000
FXUS65 KPSR 300256
AFDPSR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PHOENIX AZ
755 PM MST WED OCT 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH TEMPERATURES WARM A FEW MORE DEGREES INTO FRIDAY AS A RIDGE OF
HIGH PRESSURE PASSES OVER THE REGION. OVER THE WEEKEND...A DRY COLD
FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA...BRINGING MUCH COOLER TEMPERATURES
AND BREEZY CONDITIONS...WITH HIGHS DROPPING INTO THE 70S ON THE
LOWER DESERTS. ANTICIPATE LITTLE CHANGE IN TEMPERATURES MONDAY...
FOLLOWED BY SOME WARMING TUESDAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WIND WERE NOTED OVER THE FORECAST AREA
THIS EVENING. OTHERWISE...THE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE REGION
WILL WEAKEN LATE THURSDAY AS A SERIES OF PACIFIC WEATHER SYSTEMS
START TO MOVE INTO THE WESTERN STATES. VARIABLE HIGH CLOUDS ARE
EXPECTED THURSDAY...CLEARING FRIDAY. LITTLE CHANGE IN AFTERNOON
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. CURRENT FORECASTS
THROUGH FRIDAY LOOK GOOD. NO UPDATES NECESSARY.

A STRONG DRY COLD FRONT IS STILL EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO ARIZONA ON
SATURDAY...AND DETAILS CAN BE FOUND IN THE PREVIOUS DISCUSSION
BELOW.


.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...158 PM MST...
TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...
CLEAR SKIES CONTINUE ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST UNITED STATES THIS
AFTERNOON. A STRONG UPPER LEVEL LOW CURRENTLY SAGGING SOUTH OUT OF
THE GULF OF ALASKA IS SLATED TO CONTINUE TO DROP SOUTH IN LATITUDE
ALONG THE WEST COAST THURSDAY...EVENTUALLY MOVING INLAND OVER THE
INTERMOUNTAIN WEST STARTING FRIDAY. IN THE MEANTIME...THE UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE WILL STRENGTHEN/AMPLIFY OVER THE WESTERN CONUS THURSDAY
AND FRIDAY...WITH THE INFLUENCE OF 582-586DM HEIGHTS EXTENDING
ACROSS NORTHERN UTAH. THE HEIGHT INCREASE WILL YIELD TWO WARM DAYS
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY TO END THE MONTH OF OCTOBER ON...WITH ABOVE
NORMAL TEMPS IN THE LOW 90S BOTH DAYS FOR MANY DESERT LOCATIONS.

AS THE LOW APPROACHES FRIDAY...THE TIGHTENING EASTERLY PRESSURE
GRADIENT WILL ALSO AID IN MODEST MOISTURE INCURSIONS INTO EASTERN
ARIZONA FRIDAY. MEDIUM RANGE MODELS NOW DEPICT A DEEPER AND COLDER
PACIFIC LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM BRINGING IN VARYING AMOUNTS OF
MOISTURE...THE SREF WITH THE HIGHEST AMOUNTS OF QPF OVER EASTERN
ARIZONA...MAINLY ALONG THE AZ-NM BORDER BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON/EARLY
EVENING. MIXING RATIOS HAVE GRADUALLY INCREASED TO CLOSE TO 7G/KG
OVER THE LAST FEW MODEL RUNS...ALONG WITH THE SLIGHTLY SLOWER
ARRIVAL/TIMING OF THE LOW. THE WITH UPPER LEVEL JET SUPPORT AND A
DEEPER LOW LEVEL SOUTHERLY FLOW/MODEST MOISTURE TRANSPORT AHEAD OF
THE TROUGH...WENT AHEAD AND INTRODUCED SLIGHT CHANCE POPS OVER JTNP
IN SE CA...AND OVER OUR FAR EASTERN ZONES IN SOUTHERN GILA FOR
FRIDAY EVENING. NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION THAT CONDITIONS WILL BE
UNSTABLE ENOUGH ESPECIALLY OVER OUR HIGHER TERRAIN AREAS FOR
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS.

SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...
THE MEDIUM RANGE MODELS HAVE TRENDED TOWARD A DEEPER/COLDER PACIFIC
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AND A BIT SLOWER TO MOVE INLAND AND THEY STILL
SHOW A DRY COLD FRONT MOVING ACROSS SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA CALIFORNIA
AND ARIZONA IN THE FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY TIME FRAME. NOT ALL
OF THE COOL AIR ADVECTION WILL HAVE REACHED EASTERN PORTIONS OF OUR
FORECAST AREA BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON...BUT THERE WILL STILL BE A NICE
DROP IN TEMPS FROM FRIDAY TO SATURDAY...ESPECIALLY OVER SOUTHEAST
CALIFORNIA. STRONGER GUSTY WINDS WILL ACCOMPANY THE COOL AIR
ADVECTION/FRONTAL PASSAGE AS WELL...MORE SO OVER SE CALIFORNIA BUT
IT DOES NOT LOOK LIKE ADVISORY STRENGTH AT THIS TIME. THE INITIAL
VORT LOBE AND ASSOCIATED QG FORCING PASSES TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE
FORECAST AREA SATURDAY...AND A TRAILING SHORT WAVE BRUSHES THE
FORECAST AREA WITH SOME DYNAMICAL LIFT SATURDAY AFTERNOON INTO
SUNDAY...BUT THE BRUNT STILL LOOKS TO PASS JUST NORTH. HOWEVER...
WITH MOISTURE STILL IN PLACE AND COMBINED FRONTAL LIFT...INTRODUCED
A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AGAIN OVER SOUTHERN
GILA COUNTY FOR SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING...MAINLY EAST AND
NORTH OF GLOBE. TEMPS WILL DROP SIGNIFICANTLY DOWN INTO THE MID 70S
CWA-WIDE BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON.

MONDAY AND TUESDAY...
YET ANOTHER TRAILING SHORT WAVE MOVES IN SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY.
THE ECMWF IS DEEPER THAN THE GFS AND THE GEM IS EVEN WEAKER WITH IT.
HOWEVER...LATEST GFS AND ECWMF GO ON TO DEVELOP A CLOSED LOW OVER
ARIZONA...ECMWF A BIT FASTER...AND DRIFTING THE SYSTEM SOUTHWESTWARD
A BIT IN RESPONSE TO A POSITIVELY TILTED UPSTREAM RIDGE. THE BOTH
SHOW THE LOW BECOMING CENTERED JUST SOUTH OF THE MEXICO BORDER BY
00Z WEDNESDAY...ECMWF A BIT FURTHER WEST THAN GFS. IN THE
PROCESS...MOISTURE IS PULLED INTO ARIZONA FROM THE SOUTH AND EAST.
IT IS NOTEWORTHY THEY HAVE BOTH COME UP WITH A SIMILAR SOLUTION BUT
IS A SUBSTANTIAL DEPARTURE FROM PREVIOUS RUNS AND THUS GOOD RUN TO
RUN CONSISTENCY IS LACKING. THESE SOLUTIONS ALSO APPEAR TO BE
OUTLIERS AMONGST THEIR RESPECTIVE ENSEMBLES. TO ADD A FLY IN THE
OINTMENT...THE MEDIUM RANGE MODELS DEPICT A TROPICAL SYSTEM PASSING
SOUTH OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA IN THE MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY
TIME FRAME. PREMATURE TO INTRODUCE PRECIP CHANCES GIVEN THE
SIGNIFICANT MODEL UNCERTAINTIES. FOR NOW...TEMPS WILL SEE LITTLE
CHANGE MONDAY FOLLOWED BY SOME WARMING TUESDAY...BUT STILL A BIT
BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION...
SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA INCLUDING KPHX...KIWA AND KSDL...SOUTHEAST
CALIFORNIA AND SOUTHWEST ARIZONA INCLUDING KIPL AND KBLH...

THROUGH 20Z THURSDAY...SLOWLY INCREASING HIGH CLOUDS AOA 25 THSD
FEET. LIGHT WIND UNDER 8 KNOTS.

AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDED TAFS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...
A SEASONABLY STRONG COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION SATURDAY
ALLOWING SLIGHTLY COOLER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES TO FILTER INTO THE
DISTRICT THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK. BEHIND THIS FRONTAL
PASSAGE...WIND SPEEDS WILL INCREASE AND BECOME OCCASIONALLY GUSTY
DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS...ESPECIALLY SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY.
GUSTS TO AROUND 30 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE ALONG RIDGE TOPS AND THROUGH
FAVORED RIVER VALLEY LOCATIONS. MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES
WILL INITIALLY ONLY FALL INTO A 25-40 PERCENT RANGE OVER THE
WEEKEND...BUT AS MUCH DRIER AIR MOVES INTO THE DISTRICT...HUMIDITIES
WILL FALL INTO THE TEENS MONDAY AND TUESDAY POSSIBLY LEADING TO A
SOMEWHAT LOCALIZED ELEVATED FIRE DANGER. OTHERWISE...OVERNIGHT
RECOVERY WILL BE GOOD...AND CONDITIONS BECOMING MORE TRANQUIL
TOWARDS THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&


.PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

AZ...NONE.

CA...NONE.

&&

$$

VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/PHOENIX

DISCUSSION...VASQUEZ/MEYERS/AJ
AVIATION...VASQUEZ
FIRE WEATHER...MO









000
FXUS65 KFGZ 292218
AFDFGZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ
320 PM MST WED OCT 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING WARM DAYS AND COOL NIGHTS TO
THE AREA THROUGH THURSDAY. BY FRIDAY AND INTO THE WEEKEND...WINDY
AND COLDER WEATHER WILL DEVELOP AS A PACIFIC WEATHER SYSTEM MOVES
INTO ARIZONA. THIS SYSTEM WILL BRING A FEW RAIN AND HIGH ELEVATION
SNOW SHOWERS TO THE AREA BY LATE SATURDAY AND SUNDAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST UNITED
STATES THROUGH THURSDAY. A WARMER AIR MASS OVER ARIZONA WILL LEAD TO
TEMPERATURES 5 TO 10 DEGREES ABOVE SEASONAL NORMALS. WEAK PRESSURE
GRADIENTS WILL RESULT IN GENERALLY LIGHT WINDS.

FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...FORECAST MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT A
VIGOROUS TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE
WESTERN STATES. FOR FRIDAY...INCREASING PRESSURE GRADIENTS WILL
RESULT IN BREEZY AFTERNOON CONDITIONS BUT WITH LITTLE CHANGE IN
TEMPERATURES. A BRIEF SURGE OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IS POSSIBLE IN
EASTERN ARIZONA FRIDAY...AND A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS HAS
BEEN INCLUDED IN THE FORECAST. PRESSURE GRADIENTS WILL STRENGTHEN
FURTHER FRIDAY NIGHT WITH MOST LOCATIONS SEEING BREEZY SOUTHWEST
WINDS. AS A RESULT, LOOK FOR MILD TEMPERATURES FOR THOSE
TRICK-OR-TREATERS FRIDAY EVENING (NOT AS COLD AS NORMAL FOR A
HALLOWEEN EVENING). BY EARLY SATURDAY AREAS DOWNWIND OF TERRAIN
FEATURES SUCH AS DONEY PARK COULD EXPERIENCE LOCAL WIND GUSTS IN
EXCESS OF 40 MPH. DURING THE DAY SATURDAY INTO THE EARLY EVENING, AS
A COLD FRONT APPROACHES, WIDESPREAD SOUTHWEST WINDS OF 15 TO 25 MPH
ARE EXPECTED WITH WIND GUSTS 35-50 MPH...STRONGEST ALONG AND NORTH
OF THE MOGOLLON RIM. DECENT DYNAMICS AND INCREASED MOISTURE WILL
MOVE IN ALONG AND BEHIND THE COLD FRONT BUT A RELATIVELY WARM LAYER
ALOFT WILL LIMIT THE CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION. STILL GENERALLY
LOOKING AT A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS FOR MOST LOCATIONS...WITH
SLIGHTLY BETTER CHANCES ALONG THE HIGHER TERRAIN FROM FLAGSTAFF
NORTHWARD. LATEST MODELS NOW SHOWING THE MAIN TROUGH AND COLDER AIR
ALOFT MOVING ACROSS THE REGION LATE SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY. WE
INCREASED THE CHANCE OF SHOWERS A BIT FOR THIS TIME FRAME...AS
INSTABILITY SHOULD INCREASE. SNOW LEVELS COULD FALL NEAR OR JUST
BELOW THE 7000 FOOT LEVEL. DAYTIME TEMPERATURES WILL ALSO BE THE
COLDEST OF THE SEASON...NOT GETTING OUT OF THE 40S FOR THE MOUNTAINS.

MONDAY AND TUESDAY...MODELS HAVE TRENDED TOWARD MOVING THE TROUGH
WELL EAST OF THE REGION...WITH DRIER AND SLOWLY WARMING CONDITIONS
EXPECTED.

&&

.AVIATION...
FOR THE 00Z PACKAGE...VFR CONDITIONS WITH CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT
WINDS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT
UPDATED FOR AMENDMENTS.

&&

.FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC.........JJ
AVIATION.......MCS

FOR NORTHERN ARIZONA WEATHER INFORMATION VISIT
WEATHER.GOV/FLAGSTAFF







000
FXUS65 KTWC 292142
AFDTWC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ
235 PM MST WED OCT 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...ANOTHER STRONG WARMING TREND THROUGH FRIDAY AS AN
AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE REGION. HIGH TEMPERATURES ON
FRIDAY WILL BE AT LEAST 7 TO 10 DEGREES ABOVE AVERAGE WITH NEAR
RECORD HIGHS POSSIBLE IN A FEW SPOTS. A TROUGH WILL BRING GUSTY
WINDS OVER THE WEEKEND WITH SIGNIFICANTLY COOLER AIR BY EARLY NEXT
WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...AFTER CONSIDERABLE DRYING YESTERDAY...WE HAVE PICKED
UP A LITTLE MOISTURE AGAIN BELOW 750MB WITH A WEAK EASTERLY TO
SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW IN LOW LEVELS. STILL LOOKING AT THE STRONG RIDGE
BUILDING IN FROM THE WEST AND INTENSIFYING OVERHEAD OVER THE NEXT 48
HOURS WITH ANOTHER JUMP IN TEMPERATURES.

TO GO ALONG WITH THE NEAR RECORD HIGHS IN A FEW AREAS FRIDAY
AFTERNOON...WE`RE STARTING TO SEE SIGNS THAT THE WEAK MOISTURE
INCREASE ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE RIDGE LATE FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT
MAY BE DEEP ENOUGH FOR A FEW SHOWERS BY FRIDAY EVENING OR SO. A JUMP
IN 700MB DEWPTS FROM THE SOUTH IN AREAS FROM TUCSON EASTWARD...BUT
NOTHING HEAVY.

MEDIUM RANGE MODELS CONTINUE TO HANDLE THE DESERT SOUTHWEST RIDGE
AND THE SUBSEQUENT INITIAL TROUGH DEVELOPMENT NEAR THE WEST COAST
VERY CONSISTENTLY THROUGH SATURDAY. PREVIOUSLY...THE 00Z GFS/ECMWF
THEN SPLIT A DECENT AMOUNT OF ENERGY INTO A CUTOFF LOW THROUGH
ARIZONA AND EVEN INTO NORTHERN MEXICO NEXT TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY...HOWEVER ENSEMBLE MEANS HINTED THAT THIS WAS NOT GOING TO
END UP BEING A REASONABLE RESOLUTION WITH CUT-OFF POSITIONS BEING
CLOSER TO THE SLOWEST AND DEEPEST OUTLIERS. ALSO...NORMALIZED
STANDARD DEVIATION 500MB HEIGHT FIELDS (AS A FUNCTION OF LEAD TIME
AND GEOGRAPHICAL LOCATION OVER THE PAST 30 DAYS) WERE VERY
UNFAVORABLE FOR THE ECMWF CUT-OFF POSITION. SUBSEQUENTLY...THE 12Z
GFS TRENDED TOWARD A MORE PROGRESSIVE TROUGH...AND THE 12Z ECMWF
ALSO TRENDED THAT WAY WITH A WEAKER AND HIGHER LATITUDE CUT-OFF THAT
WAS ALSO A LITTLE FURTHER EAST. THIS WILL TEND TO SHUNT ANY HINT OF
SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE FIELDS EAST OF OUR AREA. STILL WORTH KEEPING
ONE EYE ON THE DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE AREA CURRENTLY SEVERAL
HUNDRED MILES SOUTH OF ACAPULCO THIS AFTERNOON.

SO THE MAIN STORY SHOULD BE GUSTY WINDS OVER THE WEEKEND (WITH
NORTHERN ARIZONA A LITTLE STRONGER) FOLLOWED BY SIGNIFICANTLY COOLER
AIR BY SUNDAY AND MONDAY. TIMING AND ORIENTATION OF THE TAIL END OF
THE FRAGMENTING COLD FRONT MAY SEE PORTIONS OF OUR CWA WARMER THAN
THE REST OF THE STATE SUNDAY AFTERNOON. COOL AIR SHOULD SETTLE IN
PLACE ACROSS OUR ENTIRE AREA BY MONDAY WITH MONDAY NIGHT INTO
TUESDAY MORNING THE COOLEST OVERNIGHT LOWS OF THE SEASON SO FAR. A
FEW COLDEST EASTERN VALLEY LOCATIONS COULD BRIEFLY TOUCH FREEZING
FOR THE FIRST TIME EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...VALID THRU 30/21Z.
VFR CONDITIONS AT ALL TERMINALS. SKC CONDITIONS WITH NORMAL
DIURNALLY TERRAIN DRIVEN SURFACE WIND GENERALLY LESS THAN 10 KTS.
AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR TAF AMENDMENTS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...WARM AND DRY CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS
SOUTHEAST ARIZONA THROUGH THURSDAY. 20-FOOT WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND
TERRAIN DRIVEN THROUGH THURSDAY. A SOUTH-SOUTHEAST FLOW PATTERN WILL
OCCUR THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM AND COULD BRING A WEAK MOISTURE INCREASE AND A FEW SHOWERS
FOR EASTERN AREAS BY LATE FRIDAY. THIS SYSTEM WILL RESULT IN GUSTY
SOUTHWEST-WEST WINDS SATURDAY AND SUNDAY AS IT PASSES NORTH OF THE
AREA. BELOW AVERAGE TEMPERATURES ARE THEN EXPECTED BEHIND THIS
SYSTEM TO START THE NEW WEEK.

&&

.TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...YOUTUBE...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/TUCSON

MEYER/CERNIGLIA







000
FXUS65 KPSR 292058 CCA
AFDPSR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED TYPOS
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PHOENIX AZ
158 PM MST WED OCT 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH TEMPERATURES WARM A FEW MORE DEGREES INTO FRIDAY AS A RIDGE OF
HIGH PRESSURE PASSES OVER THE REGION. OVER THE WEEKEND...A DRY COLD
FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA...BRINGING MUCH COOLER TEMPERATURES
AND BREEZY CONDITIONS...WITH HIGHS DROPPING INTO THE 70S ON THE
LOWER DESERTS. ANTICIPATE LITTLE CHANGE IN TEMPERATURES MONDAY...
FOLLOWED BY SOME WARMING TUESDAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...
CLEAR SKIES CONTINUE ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST UNITED STATES THIS
AFTERNOON. A STRONG UPPER LEVEL LOW CURRENTLY SAGGING SOUTH OUT OF
THE GULF OF ALASKA IS SLATED TO CONTINUE TO DROP SOUTH IN LATITUDE
ALONG THE WEST COAST THURSDAY...EVENTUALLY MOVING INLAND OVER THE
INTERMOUNTAIN WEST STARTING FRIDAY. IN THE MEANTIME...THE UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE WILL STRENGTHEN/AMPLIFY OVER THE WESTERN CONUS THURSDAY
AND FRIDAY...WITH THE INFLUENCE OF 582-586DM HEIGHTS EXTENDING
ACROSS NORTHERN UTAH. THE HEIGHT INCREASE WILL YIELD TWO WARM DAYS
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY TO END THE MONTH OF OCTOBER ON...WITH ABOVE
NORMAL TEMPS IN THE LOW 90S BOTH DAYS FOR MANY DESERT LOCATIONS.

AS THE LOW APPROACHES FRIDAY...THE TIGHTENING EASTERLY PRESSURE
GRADIENT WILL ALSO AID IN MODEST MOISTURE INCURSIONS INTO EASTERN
ARIZONA FRIDAY. MEDIUM RANGE MODELS NOW DEPICT A DEEPER AND COLDER
PACIFIC LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM BRINGING IN VARYING AMOUNTS OF
MOISTURE...THE SREF WITH THE HIGHEST AMOUNTS OF QPF OVER EASTERN
ARIZONA...MAINLY ALONG THE AZ-NM BORDER BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON/EARLY
EVENING. MIXING RATIOS HAVE GRADUALLY INCREASED TO CLOSE TO 7G/KG
OVER THE LAST FEW MODEL RUNS...ALONG WITH THE SLIGHTLY SLOWER
ARRIVAL/TIMING OF THE LOW. THE WITH UPPER LEVEL JET SUPPORT AND A
DEEPER LOW LEVEL SOUTHERLY FLOW/MODEST MOISTURE TRANSPORT AHEAD OF
THE TROUGH...WENT AHEAD AND INTRODUCED SLIGHT CHANCE POPS OVER JTNP
IN SE CA...AND OVER OUR FAR EASTERN ZONES IN SOUTHERN GILA FOR
FRIDAY EVENING. NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION THAT CONDITIONS WILL BE
UNSTABLE ENOUGH ESPECIALLY OVER OUR HIGHER TERRAIN AREAS FOR
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS.

SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...
THE MEDIUM RANGE MODELS HAVE TRENDED TOWARD A DEEPER/COLDER PACIFIC
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AND A BIT SLOWER TO MOVE INLAND AND THEY STILL
SHOW A DRY COLD FRONT MOVING ACROSS SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA CALIFORNIA
AND ARIZONA IN THE FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY TIME FRAME. NOT ALL
OF THE COOL AIR ADVECTION WILL HAVE REACHED EASTERN PORTIONS OF OUR
FORECAST AREA BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON...BUT THERE WILL STILL BE A NICE
DROP IN TEMPS FROM FRIDAY TO SATURDAY...ESPECIALLY OVER SOUTHEAST
CALIFORNIA. STRONGER GUSTY WINDS WILL ACCOMPANY THE COOL AIR
ADVECTION/FRONTAL PASSAGE AS WELL...MORE SO OVER SE CALIFORNIA BUT
IT DOES NOT LOOK LIKE ADVISORY STRENGTH AT THIS TIME. THE INITIAL
VORT LOBE AND ASSOCIATED QG FORCING PASSES TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE
FORECAST AREA SATURDAY...AND A TRAILING SHORT WAVE BRUSHES THE
FORECAST AREA WITH SOME DYNAMICAL LIFT SATURDAY AFTERNOON INTO
SUNDAY...BUT THE BRUNT STILL LOOKS TO PASS JUST NORTH. HOWEVER...
WITH MOISTURE STILL IN PLACE AND COMBINED FRONTAL LIFT...INTRODUCED
A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AGAIN OVER SOUTHERN
GILA COUNTY FOR SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING...MAINLY EAST AND
NORTH OF GLOBE. TEMPS WILL DROP SIGNIFICANTLY DOWN INTO THE MID 70S
CWA-WIDE BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON.

MONDAY AND TUESDAY...
YET ANOTHER TRAILING SHORT WAVE MOVES IN SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY.
THE ECMWF IS DEEPER THAN THE GFS AND THE GEM IS EVEN WEAKER WITH IT.
HOWEVER...LATEST GFS AND ECWMF GO ON TO DEVELOP A CLOSED LOW OVER
ARIZONA...ECMWF A BIT FASTER...AND DRIFTING THE SYSTEM SOUTHWESTWARD
A BIT IN RESPONSE TO A POSITIVELY TILTED UPSTREAM RIDGE. THE BOTH
SHOW THE LOW BECOMING CENTERED JUST SOUTH OF THE MEXICO BORDER BY
00Z WEDNESDAY...ECMWF A BIT FURTHER WEST THAN GFS. IN THE
PROCESS...MOISTURE IS PULLED INTO ARIZONA FROM THE SOUTH AND EAST.
IT IS NOTEWORTHY THEY HAVE BOTH COME UP WITH A SIMILAR SOLUTION BUT
IS A SUBSTANTIAL DEPARTURE FROM PREVIOUS RUNS AND THUS GOOD RUN TO
RUN CONSISTENCY IS LACKING. THESE SOLUTIONS ALSO APPEAR TO BE
OUTLIERS AMONGST THEIR RESPECTIVE ENSEMBLES. TO ADD A FLY IN THE
OINTMENT...THE MEDIUM RANGE MODELS DEPICT A TROPICAL SYSTEM PASSING
SOUTH OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA IN THE MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY
TIME FRAME. PREMATURE TO INTRODUCE PRECIP CHANCES GIVEN THE
SIGNIFICANT MODEL UNCERTAINTIES. FOR NOW...TEMPS WILL SEE LITTLE
CHANGE MONDAY FOLLOWED BY SOME WARMING TUESDAY...BUT STILL A BIT
BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION...
SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA INCLUDING KPHX...KIWA AND KSDL...SOUTHEAST
CALIFORNIA AND SOUTHWEST ARIZONA INCLUDING KIPL AND KBLH...

NO AVIATION IMPACTS THROUGH THURSDAY AFTERNOON WITH ONLY A GRADUAL
INCREASE IN HIGH CIRRUS. SFC WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT GENERALLY BELOW
8 KT...AND MAY REMAIN VARIABLE FOR PROLONGED PERIODS. THE MORNING
EASTERLY COMPONENT FOR CNTRL ARIZONA TERMINALS WILL LIKELY PERSIST
LONGER INTO LATE THURSDAY AFTERNOON THAN USUAL.

AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDED TAFS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...
A SEASONABLY STRONG COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION SATURDAY
ALLOWING SLIGHTLY COOLER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES TO FILTER INTO THE
DISTRICT THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK. BEHIND THIS FRONTAL
PASSAGE...WIND SPEEDS WILL INCREASE AND BECOME OCCASIONALLY GUSTY
DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS...ESPECIALLY SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY.
GUSTS TO AROUND 30 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE ALONG RIDGE TOPS AND THROUGH
FAVORED RIVER VALLEY LOCATIONS. MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES
WILL INITIALLY ONLY FALL INTO A 25-40 PERCENT RANGE OVER THE
WEEKEND...BUT AS MUCH DRIER AIR MOVES INTO THE DISTRICT...HUMIDITIES
WILL FALL INTO THE TEENS MONDAY AND TUESDAY POSSIBLY LEADING TO A
SOMEWHAT LOCALIZED ELEVATED FIRE DANGER. OTHERWISE...OVERNIGHT
RECOVERY WILL BE GOOD...AND CONDITIONS BECOMING MORE TRANQUIL
TOWARDS THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&


.PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

AZ...NONE.

CA...NONE.

&&

$$

VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/PHOENIX

DISCUSSION...MEYERS/AJ
AVIATION...MO
FIRE WEATHER...MO






000
FXUS65 KPSR 292057
AFDPSR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PHOENIX AZ
155 PM MST WED OCT 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH TEMPERATURES WARM A FEW MORE DEGREES INTO FRIDAY AS A RIDGE OF
HIGH PRESSURE PASSES OVER THE REGION. OVER THE WEEKEND...A DRY COLD
FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA...BRINGING MUCH COOLER TEMPERATURES
AND BREEZY CONDITIONS...WITH HIGHS DROPPING INTO THE 70S ON THE
LOWER DESERTS. ANTICIPATE LITTLE CHANGE IN TEMPERATURES MONDAY...
FOLLOWED BY SOME WARMING TUESDAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...
CLEAR SKIES CONTINUE ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST UNITED STATES THIS
AFTERNOON. A STRONG UPPER LEVEL LOW CURRENTLY SAGGING SOUTH OUT OF
THE GULF OF ALASKA IS SLATED TO CONTINUE TO DROP SOUTH IN LATITUDE
ALONG THE WEST COAST THURSDAY...EVENTUALLY MOVING INLAND OVER THE
INTERMOUNTAIN WEST STARTING FRIDAY. IN THE MEANTIME...THE UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE WILL STRENGTHEN/AMPLIFY OVER THE WESTERN CONUS THURSDAY
AND FRIDAY...WITH THE INFLUENCE OF 582-586DM HEIGHTS EXTENDING
ACROSS NORTHERN UTAH. THE HEIGHT INCREASE WILL YIELD TWO WARM DAYS
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY TO END THE MONTH OF OCTOBER ON...WITH ABOVE
NORMAL TEMPS IN THE LOW 90S BOTH DAYS FOR MANY DESERT LOCATIONS.

AS THE LOW APPROACHES FRIDAY...THE TIGHTENING EASTERLY PRESSURE
GRADIENT WILL ALSO AID IN MODEST MOISTURE INCURSIONS INTO EASTERN
ARIZONA FRIDAY. MEDIUM RANGE MODELS NOW DEPICT A DEEPER AND COLDER
PACIFIC LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM BRINGING IN VARYING AMOUNTS OF
MOISTURE...THE SREF WITH THE HIGHEST AMOUNTS OF QPF OVER EASTERN
ARIZONA...MAINLY ALONG THE AZ-NM BORDER BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON/EARLY
EVENING. MIXING RATIOS HAVE GRADUALLY INCREASED TO CLOSE TO 7G/KG
OVER THE LAST FEW MODEL RUNS...ALONG WITH THE SLIGHTLY SLOWER
ARRIVAL/TIMING OF THE LOW. THE WITH UPPER LEVEL JET SUPPORT AND A
DEEPER LOW LEVEL SOUTHERLY FLOW/MODEST MOISTURE TRANSPORT AHEAD OF
THE TROUGH...WENT AHEAD AND INTRODUCED SLIGHT CHANCE POPS OVER JTNP
IN SE CA...AND OVER OUR FAR EASTERN ZONES IN SOUTHERN GILA FOR
FRIDAY EVENING. NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION THAT CONDITIONS WILL BE
UNSTABLE ENOUGH ESPECIALLY OVER OUR HIGHER TERRAIN AREAS FOR
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS.

SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...
THE MEDIUM RANGE MODELS HAVE TRENDED TOWARD A DEEPER/COLDER PACIFIC
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AND A BIT SLOWER TO MOVE INLAND AND THEY STILL
SHOW A DRY COLD FRONT MOVING ACROSS SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA CALIFORNIA
AND ARIZONA IN THE FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY TIME FRAME. NOT ALL
OF THE COOL AIR ADVECTION WILL HAVE REACHED EASTERN PORTIONS OF OUR
FORECAST AREA BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON...BUT THERE WILL STILL BE A NICE
DROP IN TEMPS FROM FRIDAY TO SATURDAY...ESPECIALLY OVER SOUTHEAST
CALIFORNIA. STRONGER GUSTY WINDS WILL ACCOMPANY THE COOL AIR
ADVECTION/FRONTAL PASSAGE AS WELL...MORE SO OVER SE CALIFORNIA BUT
IT DOES NOT LOOK LIKE ADVISORY STRENGTH AT THIS TIME. THE INITIAL
VORT LOBE AND ASSOCIATED QG FORCING PASSES TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE
FORECAST AREA SATURDAY...AND A TRAILING SHORT WAVE BRUSHES THE
FORECAST AREA WITH SOME DYNAMICAL LIFT SATURDAY AFTERNOON INTO
SUNDAY...BUT THE BRUNT STILL LOOKS TO PASS JUST NORTH. HOWEVER...
WITH MOISTURE STILL IN PLACE AND COMBINED FRONTAL LIFT...INTRODUCED
A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AGAIN OVER SOUTHERN
GILA COUNTY FOR SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING...MAINLY EAST AND
NORTH OF GLOBE. TEMPS WILL DROP SIGNIFICANTLY DOWN INTO THE MID 70S
CWA-WIDE BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON.

MONDAY AND TUESDAY...
YET ANOTHER TRAILING SHORT WAVE MOVES IN SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY.
THE ECMWF IS DEEPER THAN THE GFS AND THE GEM IS EVEN WEAKER WITH IT.
HOWEVER...LATEST GFS AND ECWMF GO ON TO DEVELOP A CLOSED LOW OVER
ARIZONA...ECMWF A BIT FASTER...AND DRIFTING THE SYSTEM SOUTHWESTWARD
A BIT IN RESPONSE TO A POSITIVELY TILTED UPSTREAM RIDGE. THE BOTH
SHOW THE LOW BECOMING CENTERED JUST SOUTH OF THE MEXICO BORDER BY
00Z WEDNESDAY...ECMWF A BIT FURTHER WEST THAN GFS. IN THE
PROCESS...MOISTURE IS PULLED INTO ARIZONA FROM THE SOUTH AND EAST.
IT IS NOTEWORTHY THEY HAVE BOTH COME UP WITH A SIMILAR SOLUTION BUT
IS A SUBSTANTIAL DEPARTURE FROM PREVIOUS RUNS AND THUS GOOD RUN TO
RUN CONSISTENCY IS LACKING. THESE SOLUTIONS ALSO APPEAR TO BE
OUTLIERS AMONGST THEIR RESPECTIVE ENSEMBLES. TO ADD A FLY IN THE
OINTMENT...THE MEDIUM RANGE MODELS DEPICT A TROPICAL SYSTEM PASSING
SOUTH OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA IN THE MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY
TIME FRAME. PREMATURE TO INTRODUCE PRECIP CHANCES GIVEN THE
SIGNIFICANT MODEL UNCERTAINTIES. FOR NOW...TEMPS WILL SEE LITTLE
CHANGE MONDAY FOLLOWED BY SOME WARMING TUESDAY...BUT STILL A BIT
BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION...
SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA INCLUDING KPHX...KIWA AND KSDL...SOUTHEAST
CALIFORNIA AND SOUTHWEST ARIZONA INCLUDING KIPL AND KBLH...

NO AVIATION IMPACTS THROUGH THURSDAY AFTERNOON WITH ONLY A GRADUAL
INCREASE IN HIGH CIRRUS. SFC WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT GENERALLY BELOW
8 KT...AND MAY REMAIN VARIABLE FOR PROLONGED PERIODS. THE MORNING
EASTERLY COMPONENT FOR CNTRL ARIZONA TERMINALS WILL LIKELY PERSIST
LONGER INTO LATE THURSDAY AFTERNOON THAN USUAL.

AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDED TAFS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...
A SEASONABLY STRONG COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION SATURDAY
ALLOWING SLIGHTLY COOLER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES TO FILTER INTO THE
DISTRICT THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK. BEHIND THIS FRONTAL
PASSAGE...WIND SPEEDS WILL INCREASE AND BECOME OCCASIONALLY GUSTY
DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS...ESPECIALLY SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY.
GUSTS TO AROUND 30 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE ALONG RIDGE TOPS AND THROUGH
FAVORED RIVER VALLEY LOCATIONS. MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES
WILL INITIALLY ONLY FALL INTO A 25-40 PERCENT RANGE OVER THE
WEEKEND...BUT AS MUCH DRIER AIR MOVES INTO THE DISTRICT...HUMIDITIES
WILL FALL INTO THE TEENS MONDAY AND TUESDAY POSSIBLY LEADING TO A
SOMEWHAT LOCALIZED ELEVATED FIRE DANGER. OTHERWISE...OVERNIGHT
RECOVERY WILL BE GOOD...AND CONDITIONS BECOMING MORE TRANQUIL
TOWARDS THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&


.PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

AZ...NONE.

CA...NONE.

&&

$$

VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/PHOENIX

DISCUSSION...MEYERS/AJ
AVIATION...CB
FIRE WEATHER...NOLTE/PERCHA/CB






000
FXUS65 KPSR 291657
AFDPSR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PHOENIX AZ
950 AM MST WED OCT 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH TEMPERATURES WARM A FEW DEGREES TODAY INTO FRIDAY AS A RIDGE OF
HIGH PRESSURE PASSES OVER THE REGION. OVER THE WEEKEND...A DRY COLD
FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA...BRINGING MUCH COOLER TEMPERATURES
AND BREEZY CONDITIONS WITH HIGHS DROPPING INTO THE 70S ON THE LOWER
DESERTS. ANTICIPATE LITTLE CHANGE IN TEMPERATURES MONDAY FOLLOWED BY
SOME WARMING TUESDAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY...
CLEAR SKIES ACROSS THE DESERT SOUTHWEST THIS MORNING...REGIONAL
UPPER AIR PLOTS CONTINUE TO SHOW A DRIER WEST-NORTHWESTERLY
500-250MB FLOW ALOFT IN PLACE ACROSS THE REGION. THE LOW LEVEL FLOW
FROM 850-700MB HAS BEEN MORE EASTERLY...THE DRY CONTINENTAL FETCH
KEEPING SURFACE DEW POINT TEMPS IN THE LOW 40S ACROSS MOST OF OUR
CWA...AND WHAT LITTLE MOISTURE IS THERE WILL SOON MIX OUT AS WE WARM
UP INTO THE UPPER 80S AND GO THROUGH THE DAY. THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
OVER THE WESTERN CONUS WILL CONTINUE TO AMPLIFY...AND DAYTIME TEMPS
WILL EVENTUALLY WARM AN ADDITIONAL 3-5 DEGREES BY FRIDAY...AFTERNOON
TEMPERATURES TOPPING OUT IN THE LOW 90S. THE SHORT TERM DIGITAL
FORECAST GRIDS CAPTURE CURRENT SURFACE OBS/MODEL TRENDS...FORECAST
IS IN GOOD SHAPE AT THIS TIME.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
FRIDAY...THE WARM TEMPERATURES BELIE THE APPROACH OF A STRONG LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM CURRENTLY TAKING SHAPE OVER THE GULF OF ALASKA. THE
TIGHTENING EASTERLY PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL ALSO AID IN MODEST
MOISTURE INCURSIONS INTO EASTERN ARIZONA FRIDAY. SREF DEPICTS SOME
MODEST QPF OVER OUR EASTERNMOST AREAS. GFS AND EMCWF ARE QUITE A BIT
LESS AGGRESSIVE WITH THE MOIST ADVECTION PUSHING SO FAR WEST. NOT
ENOUGH TO GO ON YET TO INTRODUCE POPS.

SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...
THE MEDIUM RANGE MODELS HAVE TRENDED TOWARD A DEEPER/COLDER PACIFIC
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AND A BIT SLOWER TO MOVE INLAND. THEY STILL SHOW
A DRY COLD FRONT MOVING ACROSS SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA CALIFORNIA AND
ARIZONA IN THE FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY TIME FRAME. NOT ALL OF
THE COOL AIR ADVECTION WILL HAVE REACHED EASTERN PORTIONS OF OUR
FORECAST AREA BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON BUT THERE WILL STILL BE A NICE
DROP IN TEMPS FROM FRIDAY TO SATURDAY...ESPECIALLY OVER SOUTHEAST
CALIFORNIA. BREEZINESS WILL ACCOMPANY THE COOL AIR ADVECTION AS
WELL...MORE SO OVER SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA BUT IT DOES NOT LOOK LIKE
ADVISORY STRENGTH. THE INITIAL VORT LOBE AND ASSOCIATED QG FORCING
PASSES TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE FORECAST AREA SATURDAY. A SIGNIFICANT
TRAILING SHORT WAVE BRUSHES THE FORECAST AREA WITH SOME DYNAMICAL
LIFT SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY BUT THE BRUNT STILL LOOKS TO PASS
JUST NORTH. HOWEVER...WE WILL HAVE SOME ADDITIONAL COOLING
SUNDAY...MOST NOTICEABLY IN OUR EASTERN AREAS WITH HIGHS ACROSS THE
LOW DESERTS IN THE LOW TO MID 70S. WILL CONTINUE TO HOLD OFF ON
INTRODUCING PRECIP CHANCES AT THIS TIME.

MONDAY AND TUESDAY...
YET ANOTHER TRAILING SHORT WAVE MOVES IN SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY.
THE ECMWF IS DEEPER THAN THE GFS AND THE GEM IS EVEN WEAKER WITH IT.
HOWEVER...LATEST GFS AND ECWMF GO ON TO DEVELOP A CLOSED LOW OVER
ARIZONA...ECMWF A BIT FASTER...AND DRIFTING THE SYSTEM SOUTHWESTWARD
A BIT IN RESPONSE TO A POSITIVELY TILTED UPSTREAM RIDGE. THE BOTH
SHOW THE LOW BECOMING CENTERED JUST SOUTH OF THE MEXICO BORDER BY
00Z WEDNESDAY...ECMWF A BIT FURTHER WEST THAN GFS. IN THE
PROCESS...MOISTURE IS PULLED INTO ARIZONA FROM THE SOUTH AND EAST.
IT IS NOTEWORTHY THEY HAVE BOTH COME UP WITH A SIMILAR SOLUTION BUT
IS A SUBSTANTIAL DEPARTURE FROM PREVIOUS RUNS AND THUS GOOD RUN TO
RUN CONSISTENCY IS LACKING. THESE SOLUTIONS ALSO APPEAR TO BE
OUTLIERS AMONGST THEIR RESPECTIVE ENSEMBLES. TO ADD A FLY IN THE
OINTMENT...THE MEDIUM RANGE MODELS DEPICT A TROPICAL SYSTEM PASSING
SOUTH OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA IN THE MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY
TIME FRAME. PREMATURE TO INTRODUCE PRECIP CHANCES GIVEN THE
SIGNIFICANT MODEL UNCERTAINTIES. FOR NOW...TEMPS WILL SEE LITTLE
CHANGE MONDAY FOLLOWED BY SOME WARMING TUESDAY...BUT STILL A BIT
BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION...
SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA INCLUDING KPHX...KIWA AND KSDL...SOUTHEAST
CALIFORNIA AND SOUTHWEST ARIZONA INCLUDING KIPL AND KBLH...

STRONG HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD ACROSS THE AREA
TODAY INTO THURSDAY...KEEPING SKIES GENERALLY CLEAR. GRADIENTS WILL
REMAIN WEAK...LEADING TO RATHER LIGHT WINDS AT THE TERMINALS NEXT 24
HOURS. WINDS WILL FAVOR NORMAL DIURNAL SPEEDS AND DIRECTIONS ACROSS
THE GREATER PHOENIX AREA...WITH OCCASIONAL READINGS OF LIGHT
VARIABLE. EXPECT WINDS TO FAVOR THE NORTH DOWN THE LOWER CO RIVER
VALLEY WITH SPEEDS MOSTLY AOB 6KT. WINDS WILL FAVOR THE WEST AT
KIPL. NO AVIATION CONCERNS FOR AT LEAST THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDED TAFS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...
WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL LAST THROUGH FRIDAY BEFORE A
SIGNIFICANT COOL DOWN OCCURS STARTING SATURDAY IN RESPONSE TO A
STRONG PACIFIC LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING INTO THE REGION. THE
COOLER AIR MASS WILL LEAD TO HIGHS DROPPING INTO THE 70S FOR SUNDAY
AND MONDAY. INTIAL DAYTIME HUMIDITIES IN THE 10-20 PERCENT RANGE
WILL GET A BOOST FOR THE WEEKEND WITH VALUES RISING INTO THE 20S AND
30S...WITH HIGHER VALUES EXPECTED ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN EAST OF
PHOENIX. BREEZY TO WINDY CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY ON SATURDAY AND
POSSIBLY SUNDAY WITH WIND GUSTS TO NEAR 35 MPH IN SOME LOCATIONS.
TEMPERATURES WILL BEGIN A VERY SLOW REBOUND MONDAY INTO TUESDAY
WHILE GENERALLY STAYING BELOW EARLY NOVEMBER NORMALS. MUCH DRIER AIR
WILL FILTER INTO THE AREA FROM THE WEST WITH MINIMUM RH VALUES
DROPPING BACK INTO THE LOWER TEENS BY TUESDAY OVER MOST OF THE LOWER
DESERTS. ALTHOUGH WINDS WILL BE RATHER LIGHT ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL
ARIZONA EARLY NEXT WEEK...BREEZY TO LOCALLY WINDY CONDITIONS FROM
THE NORTH ARE LIKELY ACROSS THE WESTERN DESERTS NEXT MONDAY AND
TUESDAY WITH THE STRONGEST WINDS FOCUSING DOWN THE LOWER COLORADO
RIVER VALLEY.

&&


.PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

AZ...NONE.

CA...NONE.

&&

$$

VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/PHOENIX

DISCUSSION...MEYERS/AJ
AVIATION...CB
FIRE WEATHER...NOLTE/PERCHA/CB






000
FXUS65 KTWC 291636
AFDTWC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ
935 AM MST WED OCT 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...DRY CONDITIONS WITH ANOTHER STRONG WARMING TREND THROUGH
FRIDAY AS AN AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE REGION. HIGH
TEMPERATURES ON FRIDAY WILL BE AT LEAST 7 TO 10 DEGREES ABOVE
AVERAGE WITH A FEW SHOWERS POSSIBLE IN EASTERN AREAS. A TROUGH WILL
BRING GUSTY WINDS OVER THE WEEKEND WITH MUCH COOLER AIR BY EARLY
NEXT WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...AFTER CONSIDERABLE DRYING YESTERDAY...WE HAVE PICKED
UP A LITTLE MOISTURE AGAIN BELOW 750MB WITH A VERY WEAK EASTERLY TO
SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW IN LOW LEVELS. STILL LOOKING AT THE STRONG RIDGE
BUILDING IN FROM THE WEST AND INTENSIFYING OVERHEAD OVER THE NEXT 48
HOURS WITH ANOTHER JUMP IN TEMPERATURES.

STARTING TO SEE SIGNS THAT THE WEAK MOISTURE INCREASE ON THE BACK
SIDE OF THE RIDGE LATE FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT MAY BE DEEP ENOUGH
FOR A FEW MORE SHOWERS THAN CURRENTLY ADVERTISED BY FRIDAY EVENING
OR SO. NOTHING HEAVY. ALSO KEEPING ONE EYE ON THE TROPICS WITH
ANOTHER AREA OF LOW PRESSURE PROBABLY FORMING INTO A DEPRESSION
LATER TODAY SEVERAL HUNDRED MILES SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF ACAPULCO. IT
COULD END UP PLAYING A PART IN OUR WEATHER NEXT WEEK DEPENDING ON
THE POSITION AND DEPTH OF THE TROUGH. 00Z ECMWF AND GFS BROUGHT SOME
MOISTURE FROM IT IN OUR GENERAL DIRECTION AROUND MID WEEK...BUT 12Z
GFS LOOKING MORE PROGRESSIVE WITH FEATURES A LITTLE FURTHER
DOWNSTREAM. WE`LL SEE HOW THE 12Z ECMWF TREATS THINGS.

&&

.AVIATION...VALID THRU 30/16Z.
VFR CONDITIONS AT ALL TERMINALS. SKC CONDITIONS WITH NORMAL
DIURNALLY TERRAIN DRIVEN SURFACE WIND GENERALLY LESS THAN 10 KTS.
AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR TAF AMENDMENTS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...WARM AND DRY CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS
SOUTHEAST ARIZONA THROUGH THURSDAY. 20-FOOT WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND
TERRAIN DRIVEN THROUGH THURSDAY. A SOUTH-SOUTHEAST FLOW PATTERN WILL
OCCUR THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM AND COULD BRING A WEAK MOISTURE INCREASE AND A FEW SHOWERS
FOR EASTERN AREAS AS EARLY AS LATE FRIDAY. THIS SYSTEM WILL RESULT
IN GUSTY SOUTHWEST-WEST WINDS SATURDAY AND SUNDAY AS IT PASSES NORTH
OF THE REGION. BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE THEN EXPECTED BEHIND
THIS SYSTEM...SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...A CLEAR SKY PREVAILED ACROSS ARIZONA THIS
MORNING. FOR TODAY...SUNNY WITH HIGHS 2-4 DEGREES WARMER THAN
TUESDAY. UPPER RIDGE STARTS TO BUILD IN FROM THE WEST TONIGHT AND
AMPLIFY OVER THE AREA THURSDAY BEFORE PUSHING ON EAST ON FRIDAY.
THIS WILL PROVIDE RATHER WARM LATE OCTOBER HIGH TEMPERATURES...WITH
READINGS SIMILAR TO WHAT OCCURRED IN 2011 AND 2012...WITH LOCAL
SPOTS NEAR RECORDS ON HALLOWEEN. WILL SEE PERIODS OF HIGHS CLOUDS
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.

CHANGES COMING OVER THE WEEKEND AS PACIFIC TROF MOVES INLAND ACROSS
THE WESTERN CONUS...WHICH WILL BRING MUCH COOLER TEMPERATURES TO THE
REGION. HIGHS ON SATURDAY WILL GENERALLY BE 3-11 DEGREES COOLER THAN
FRIDAY WITH LARGEST COOLING CHANGE OCCURRING FROM TUCSON WEST.
COOLER YET ON SUNDAY WITH HIGHS MOSTLY 5-12 COOLER THAN SATURDAY
WITH LARGEST COOLING CHANGE OCCURRING FROM TUCSON EAST. BEST CHANCE
FOR PRECIPITATION WILL BE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING MAINLY
UP IN THE WHITES.

EARLY NEXT WEEK...ENERGY FROM WESTERN CANADA DROPS DOWN IN THE STATE
ON BACK SIDE OF MAIN UPPER TROF LIFTS EAST. THIS ENERGY WILL CARVE
OUT A NEW TROF OVER THE STATE LATE MONDAY INTO EARLY TUESDAY WITH
GFS/ECMWF DEVELOPING A CLOSED LOW SW OF TUCSON LATER ON TUESDAY.
THIS IS THE FIRST TIME BOTH MODELS HAVE AGREED ON THIS IDEA. IF THE
MODELS ARE CORRECT FLOW ALOFT BECOMES EASTERLY AS THE UPPER LOW
DROPS INTO NORTHERN SONORA MEXICO. THUS MOISTURE WILL WRAP IN FROM
THE EAST AND HAS THE POTENTIAL TO BRING A BETTER CHANCE OF SHOWERS
VERSUS THE INHERITED FORECAST. WITH THAT SAID HAVE GONE AHEAD A
THREW IN SOME LOW END POPS LATE MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. SOMETHING TO
WATCH OVER THE NEXT 3-5 DAYS AND SEE IF MODELS SHOW SOME CONSISTENCY.

&&

.TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...YOUTUBE...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/TUCSON

MEYER/CERNIGLIA






000
FXUS65 KTWC 291636
AFDTWC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ
935 AM MST WED OCT 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...DRY CONDITIONS WITH ANOTHER STRONG WARMING TREND THROUGH
FRIDAY AS AN AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE REGION. HIGH
TEMPERATURES ON FRIDAY WILL BE AT LEAST 7 TO 10 DEGREES ABOVE
AVERAGE WITH A FEW SHOWERS POSSIBLE IN EASTERN AREAS. A TROUGH WILL
BRING GUSTY WINDS OVER THE WEEKEND WITH MUCH COOLER AIR BY EARLY
NEXT WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...AFTER CONSIDERABLE DRYING YESTERDAY...WE HAVE PICKED
UP A LITTLE MOISTURE AGAIN BELOW 750MB WITH A VERY WEAK EASTERLY TO
SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW IN LOW LEVELS. STILL LOOKING AT THE STRONG RIDGE
BUILDING IN FROM THE WEST AND INTENSIFYING OVERHEAD OVER THE NEXT 48
HOURS WITH ANOTHER JUMP IN TEMPERATURES.

STARTING TO SEE SIGNS THAT THE WEAK MOISTURE INCREASE ON THE BACK
SIDE OF THE RIDGE LATE FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT MAY BE DEEP ENOUGH
FOR A FEW MORE SHOWERS THAN CURRENTLY ADVERTISED BY FRIDAY EVENING
OR SO. NOTHING HEAVY. ALSO KEEPING ONE EYE ON THE TROPICS WITH
ANOTHER AREA OF LOW PRESSURE PROBABLY FORMING INTO A DEPRESSION
LATER TODAY SEVERAL HUNDRED MILES SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF ACAPULCO. IT
COULD END UP PLAYING A PART IN OUR WEATHER NEXT WEEK DEPENDING ON
THE POSITION AND DEPTH OF THE TROUGH. 00Z ECMWF AND GFS BROUGHT SOME
MOISTURE FROM IT IN OUR GENERAL DIRECTION AROUND MID WEEK...BUT 12Z
GFS LOOKING MORE PROGRESSIVE WITH FEATURES A LITTLE FURTHER
DOWNSTREAM. WE`LL SEE HOW THE 12Z ECMWF TREATS THINGS.

&&

.AVIATION...VALID THRU 30/16Z.
VFR CONDITIONS AT ALL TERMINALS. SKC CONDITIONS WITH NORMAL
DIURNALLY TERRAIN DRIVEN SURFACE WIND GENERALLY LESS THAN 10 KTS.
AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR TAF AMENDMENTS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...WARM AND DRY CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS
SOUTHEAST ARIZONA THROUGH THURSDAY. 20-FOOT WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND
TERRAIN DRIVEN THROUGH THURSDAY. A SOUTH-SOUTHEAST FLOW PATTERN WILL
OCCUR THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM AND COULD BRING A WEAK MOISTURE INCREASE AND A FEW SHOWERS
FOR EASTERN AREAS AS EARLY AS LATE FRIDAY. THIS SYSTEM WILL RESULT
IN GUSTY SOUTHWEST-WEST WINDS SATURDAY AND SUNDAY AS IT PASSES NORTH
OF THE REGION. BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE THEN EXPECTED BEHIND
THIS SYSTEM...SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...A CLEAR SKY PREVAILED ACROSS ARIZONA THIS
MORNING. FOR TODAY...SUNNY WITH HIGHS 2-4 DEGREES WARMER THAN
TUESDAY. UPPER RIDGE STARTS TO BUILD IN FROM THE WEST TONIGHT AND
AMPLIFY OVER THE AREA THURSDAY BEFORE PUSHING ON EAST ON FRIDAY.
THIS WILL PROVIDE RATHER WARM LATE OCTOBER HIGH TEMPERATURES...WITH
READINGS SIMILAR TO WHAT OCCURRED IN 2011 AND 2012...WITH LOCAL
SPOTS NEAR RECORDS ON HALLOWEEN. WILL SEE PERIODS OF HIGHS CLOUDS
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.

CHANGES COMING OVER THE WEEKEND AS PACIFIC TROF MOVES INLAND ACROSS
THE WESTERN CONUS...WHICH WILL BRING MUCH COOLER TEMPERATURES TO THE
REGION. HIGHS ON SATURDAY WILL GENERALLY BE 3-11 DEGREES COOLER THAN
FRIDAY WITH LARGEST COOLING CHANGE OCCURRING FROM TUCSON WEST.
COOLER YET ON SUNDAY WITH HIGHS MOSTLY 5-12 COOLER THAN SATURDAY
WITH LARGEST COOLING CHANGE OCCURRING FROM TUCSON EAST. BEST CHANCE
FOR PRECIPITATION WILL BE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING MAINLY
UP IN THE WHITES.

EARLY NEXT WEEK...ENERGY FROM WESTERN CANADA DROPS DOWN IN THE STATE
ON BACK SIDE OF MAIN UPPER TROF LIFTS EAST. THIS ENERGY WILL CARVE
OUT A NEW TROF OVER THE STATE LATE MONDAY INTO EARLY TUESDAY WITH
GFS/ECMWF DEVELOPING A CLOSED LOW SW OF TUCSON LATER ON TUESDAY.
THIS IS THE FIRST TIME BOTH MODELS HAVE AGREED ON THIS IDEA. IF THE
MODELS ARE CORRECT FLOW ALOFT BECOMES EASTERLY AS THE UPPER LOW
DROPS INTO NORTHERN SONORA MEXICO. THUS MOISTURE WILL WRAP IN FROM
THE EAST AND HAS THE POTENTIAL TO BRING A BETTER CHANCE OF SHOWERS
VERSUS THE INHERITED FORECAST. WITH THAT SAID HAVE GONE AHEAD A
THREW IN SOME LOW END POPS LATE MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. SOMETHING TO
WATCH OVER THE NEXT 3-5 DAYS AND SEE IF MODELS SHOW SOME CONSISTENCY.

&&

.TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...YOUTUBE...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/TUCSON

MEYER/CERNIGLIA






000
FXUS65 KFGZ 291623
AFDFGZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ
920 AM MST WED OCT 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING WARM DAYS AND COOL NIGHTS TO
THE AREA THROUGH THURSDAY. BY FRIDAY AND INTO THE WEEKEND...WINDY
AND COLDER WEATHER WILL DEVELOP AS A PACIFIC WEATHER SYSTEM MOVES
INTO ARIZONA. THIS SYSTEM WILL BRING A FEW RAIN AND HIGH ELEVATION
SNOW SHOWERS TO THE AREA BY LATE SATURDAY AND SUNDAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...SUNNY SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS WILL CONTINUE TODAY WITH
WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES. NO FORECAST UPDATES NEEDED THIS
MORNING.

.PREV DISCUSSION...(330 AM MST)...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST UNITED STATES TODAY AND
THURSDAY. A WARMER AIR MASS WILL SETTLE OVER ARIZONA DELIVERING
TEMPERATURES 5 TO 10 DEGREES ABOVE SEASONAL NORMALS. WEAK PRESSURE
GRADIENTS WILL RESULT IN GENERALLY LIGHT WINDS.

FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...THE GFS AND EUROPEAN MODELS CONTINUE TO
INSIST THAT A VIGOROUS TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL MOVE
ACROSS THE WESTERN STATES. THERE IS REALLY NO REASON TO DOUBT THIS
SOLUTION BASED ON CURRENT STRONG JET STREAM ENERGY OVER THE NORTHERN
PACIFIC OCEAN. FOR FRIDAY...INCREASING PRESSURE GRADIENTS WILL
RESULT IN BREEZY AFTERNOON CONDITIONS BUT WITH LITTLE CHANGE IN
TEMPERATURES. PRESSURE GRADIENTS WILL STRENGTHEN FURTHER FRIDAY
NIGHT WITH MOST LOCATIONS SEEING BREEZY SOUTHWEST WINDS. AS A
RESULT, LOOK FOR MILD TEMPERATURES FOR THOSE TRICK-OR-TREATERS
FRIDAY EVENING. BY EARLY SATURDAY AREAS DOWNWIND OF TERRAIN FEATURES
SUCH AS DONEY PARK COULD EXPERIENCE LOCAL WIND GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 40
MPH. DURING THE DAY SATURDAY INTO THE EARLY EVENING, AS A COLD FRONT
APPROACHES, WIDESPREAD SOUTHWEST WINDS OF 15 TO 25 MPH ARE EXPECTED
WITH WIND GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 45 MPH...PRIMARILY ALONG AND NORTH OF
THE MOGOLLON RIM. DECENT DYNAMICS AND INCREASED MOISTURE WILL MOVE
IN ALONG AND BEHIND THE COLD FRONT BUT A RELATIVELY WARM LAYER ALOFT
WILL LIMIT THE CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION. STILL GENERALLY LOOKING AT A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS WITH THE SNOW LEVEL POTENTIALLY LOWERING TO
NEAR 7000 FEET BASED ON CURRENT TEMPERATURE PROFILES. BEHIND THE
COLD FRONT HIGH TEMPERATURES ON SUNDAY MAY BE THE COOLEST OF THIS
FALL SEASON WITH THE SLIGHT CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION CONTINUING UNDER
WEAK UPWARD MOTION.

MONDAY AND TUESDAY...MODELS NOW SHOWING A WEAK LOW SPINNING UP OVER
THE SOUTHWEST UNITED STATES AND NORTHWEST MEXICO. AT THIS TIME
CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY REMAIN COOL AND DRY BUT WE WILL BE KEEPING
AND EYE ON THIS FEATURE.

&&

.AVIATION...
FOR THE 18Z PACKAGE...VFR CONDITIONS WITH CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT
WINDS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT
UPDATED FOR AMENDMENTS.

&&

.FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC.........JJ/MCCOLLUM
AVIATION.......MCS

FOR NORTHERN ARIZONA WEATHER INFORMATION VISIT
WEATHER.GOV/FLAGSTAFF





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