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000
FXUS65 KPSR 261250
AFDPSR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PHOENIX AZ
550 AM MST SUN APR 26 2015

.UPDATE...TO AVIATION AND FIRE WEATHER DISCUSSIONS...

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER ARIZONA WILL MOVE INTO NEW MEXICO TODAY.
LINGERING SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE CONFINED TO
EASTERN ARIZONA...WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES ACROSS SOUTHEAST
CALIFORNIA AND WESTERN ARIZONA. DRY WEATHER WITH A WARMING TREND IS
FORECAST THIS WEEK...WITH LOWER DESERT TEMPERATURES APPROACHING THE
100 DEGREE MARK BY WEDNESDAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

TODAY...A STRONG NEGATIVE TILT DIFLUENT TROF WORKED ITS WAY ACROSS
CENTRAL AZ FROM THE NORTHWEST LATE LAST EVENING. THE COMBINATION OF
A COLD FRONT AND LONG LIVED CONVECTIVE OUTFLOWS MOVED THROUGH THE
GREATER PHOENIX AREA BETWEEN 1030 PM AND MIDNIGHT PRODUCING WIND
GUSTS TO 44 MPH AT WILLIAMS GATEWAY AIRPORT...AND 43 MPH AT PHOENIX
SKY HARBOR AIRPORT...LUKE AIR FORCE BASE...AND DEER VALLEY AIRPORTS.
ITS INTERESTING THAT MOST OF THE GREATER PHOENIX AREA SAW RAINFALL
OVERNIGHT...HOWEVER THUNDERSTORMS SEEMED TO HAVE LEAP-FROG OVER
PHOENIX WITH NUMEROUS STRIKES NOTED IN PINAL COUNTY BETWEEN CASA
GRANDE AND QUEEN CREEK...INCLUDING SACATON AND COOLIDGE AROUND 11 PM.

THE NEGATIVE TILT DIFLUENT TROF WILL CONTINUE TO WORK ITS WAY
THROUGH AZ THIS MORNING AND INTO NEW MEXICO THIS AFTERNOON. AS A
RESULT...SCT LIGHT SHOWERS WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS
WILL CONTINUE GENERALLY FROM PHOENIX EAST AND SOUTHEASTWARD THROUGH
AFTERNOON...THEN BE CONFINED MAINLY OVER MOUNTAINOUS OF SOUTHERN
GILA COUNTY ZONE 24 THIS EVENING.

TONIGHT...A FEW SHOWERS SHOULD CONTINUE OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF
SOUTHERN GILA COUNTY THIS EVENING...OTHERWISE MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES ARE
EXPECTED OVER THE FORECAST AREA...SOUTHEAST CA TO SOUTH CENTRAL AZ.
THE ONLY PROBLEM AREA WILL BE MODERATELY STRONG POST FRONTAL NORTH
WINDS DOWN THE COLORADO RIVER TONIGHT IN THE 15 TO 25 MPH RANGE.

MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...DRY NORTHERLY FLOW ALOFT IS WILL DEVELOP
MONDAY AND TUESDAY FOLLOWED BY A BUILDING RIDGE WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY. MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES WITH A STRONG WARMING TREND IS
EXPECTED. AFTERNOON TEMPS ON THE WARMEST DESERTS SHOULD APPROACH 100
DEGREES WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.

FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...DRY WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WITH A LITTLE COOLER
TEMPERATURES.

&&

AVIATION DISCUSSION...

SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA INCLUDING KPHX...KIWA...AND KSDL...
SLIGHT CHANCES FOR RAIN SHOWERS AND PASSING VCSH CONTINUE FOR THE
PHOENIX TERMINALS DURING THE DAY. CONDITIONS WILL EVENTUALLY DRY OUT
AND END THREAT FOR SHOWERS LATER INTO THE AFTERNOON. PRECIP COVERAGE
WILL BE ON THE SPOTTY SIDE AFTER THIS EARLY AM ROUND PASSES THROUGH
THE METRO. OVERALL...WEST WINDS WILL DEVELOP BACK INTO THE TERMINALS
BY MIDDAY BUT ALSO TAKE UP MORE VARIABLE HEADINGS AT TIMES DUE TO
PASSING SHOWER ACTIVITY. AREA CIGS WILL GRADUALLY LIFT INTO THE AM
INTO THE 5-7KFT RANGE...BRIEFLY LOWERING UNDER PASSING SHOWERS.
GUSTY WEST WINDS TO DEVELOP AGAIN THIS AFTERNOON WITH GUSTS INTO THE
20KT RANGE.


SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA AND SOUTHWEST ARIZONA INCLUDING KIPL AND
KBLH...
UPPER TROUGH CONTINUES TO MOVE INTO ARIZONA THIS AM...LEAVING
DRYING NORTHWESTERLY FLOW OVER THE REGION. ELEVATED WINDS PSBL
AGAIN THIS AFTERNOON...WITH GUSTS INTO THE 20KT RANGE LASTING
THROUGH SUNSET OR SO. MID TO HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS WILL DRIFT ACROSS
THE AREA...GNLY REMAINING AOA 10KFT WITH FURTHER CLEARING INTO
THE LATE EVENING.

AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDED TAFS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...
SUBTLE TROUGH HEIGHTS WILL LINGER OVER THE FOUR CORNERS REGION IN
THE WAKE OF THE PASSING UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM OVER THE WEEKEND. SOME
PERIODS OF ELEVATED NORTHEASTERLY BREEZES ARE POSSIBLE OVER SOUTH-
CENTRAL AZ THRU MIDWEEK... LIKELY DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS
ENHANCING THE ALREADY TYPICAL DRAINAGE PATTERN. TEMPERATURES WILL
BEGIN TO WARM SUBSTANTIALLY AND APPROACH THE TRIPLE DIGIT MARK FOR
THE LATTER PART OF THE WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS TO OUR WEST.
AFTERNOON HUMIDITIES WILL DROP INTO THE LOWER TEENS AND UPPER SINGLE
DIGITS WITH FAIR OVERNIGHT RECOVERIES EXPECTED. WINDS WILL BE GNLY
LIGHT AND SHOULD FOLLOW TYPICAL DIURNAL PATTERNS.

&&


VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/PHOENIX

DISCUSSION...VASQUEZ
AVIATION...NOLTE
FIRE WEATHER...NOLTE



000
FXUS65 KPSR 261250
AFDPSR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PHOENIX AZ
550 AM MST SUN APR 26 2015

.UPDATE...TO AVIATION AND FIRE WEATHER DISCUSSIONS...

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER ARIZONA WILL MOVE INTO NEW MEXICO TODAY.
LINGERING SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE CONFINED TO
EASTERN ARIZONA...WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES ACROSS SOUTHEAST
CALIFORNIA AND WESTERN ARIZONA. DRY WEATHER WITH A WARMING TREND IS
FORECAST THIS WEEK...WITH LOWER DESERT TEMPERATURES APPROACHING THE
100 DEGREE MARK BY WEDNESDAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

TODAY...A STRONG NEGATIVE TILT DIFLUENT TROF WORKED ITS WAY ACROSS
CENTRAL AZ FROM THE NORTHWEST LATE LAST EVENING. THE COMBINATION OF
A COLD FRONT AND LONG LIVED CONVECTIVE OUTFLOWS MOVED THROUGH THE
GREATER PHOENIX AREA BETWEEN 1030 PM AND MIDNIGHT PRODUCING WIND
GUSTS TO 44 MPH AT WILLIAMS GATEWAY AIRPORT...AND 43 MPH AT PHOENIX
SKY HARBOR AIRPORT...LUKE AIR FORCE BASE...AND DEER VALLEY AIRPORTS.
ITS INTERESTING THAT MOST OF THE GREATER PHOENIX AREA SAW RAINFALL
OVERNIGHT...HOWEVER THUNDERSTORMS SEEMED TO HAVE LEAP-FROG OVER
PHOENIX WITH NUMEROUS STRIKES NOTED IN PINAL COUNTY BETWEEN CASA
GRANDE AND QUEEN CREEK...INCLUDING SACATON AND COOLIDGE AROUND 11 PM.

THE NEGATIVE TILT DIFLUENT TROF WILL CONTINUE TO WORK ITS WAY
THROUGH AZ THIS MORNING AND INTO NEW MEXICO THIS AFTERNOON. AS A
RESULT...SCT LIGHT SHOWERS WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS
WILL CONTINUE GENERALLY FROM PHOENIX EAST AND SOUTHEASTWARD THROUGH
AFTERNOON...THEN BE CONFINED MAINLY OVER MOUNTAINOUS OF SOUTHERN
GILA COUNTY ZONE 24 THIS EVENING.

TONIGHT...A FEW SHOWERS SHOULD CONTINUE OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF
SOUTHERN GILA COUNTY THIS EVENING...OTHERWISE MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES ARE
EXPECTED OVER THE FORECAST AREA...SOUTHEAST CA TO SOUTH CENTRAL AZ.
THE ONLY PROBLEM AREA WILL BE MODERATELY STRONG POST FRONTAL NORTH
WINDS DOWN THE COLORADO RIVER TONIGHT IN THE 15 TO 25 MPH RANGE.

MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...DRY NORTHERLY FLOW ALOFT IS WILL DEVELOP
MONDAY AND TUESDAY FOLLOWED BY A BUILDING RIDGE WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY. MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES WITH A STRONG WARMING TREND IS
EXPECTED. AFTERNOON TEMPS ON THE WARMEST DESERTS SHOULD APPROACH 100
DEGREES WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.

FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...DRY WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WITH A LITTLE COOLER
TEMPERATURES.

&&

AVIATION DISCUSSION...

SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA INCLUDING KPHX...KIWA...AND KSDL...
SLIGHT CHANCES FOR RAIN SHOWERS AND PASSING VCSH CONTINUE FOR THE
PHOENIX TERMINALS DURING THE DAY. CONDITIONS WILL EVENTUALLY DRY OUT
AND END THREAT FOR SHOWERS LATER INTO THE AFTERNOON. PRECIP COVERAGE
WILL BE ON THE SPOTTY SIDE AFTER THIS EARLY AM ROUND PASSES THROUGH
THE METRO. OVERALL...WEST WINDS WILL DEVELOP BACK INTO THE TERMINALS
BY MIDDAY BUT ALSO TAKE UP MORE VARIABLE HEADINGS AT TIMES DUE TO
PASSING SHOWER ACTIVITY. AREA CIGS WILL GRADUALLY LIFT INTO THE AM
INTO THE 5-7KFT RANGE...BRIEFLY LOWERING UNDER PASSING SHOWERS.
GUSTY WEST WINDS TO DEVELOP AGAIN THIS AFTERNOON WITH GUSTS INTO THE
20KT RANGE.


SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA AND SOUTHWEST ARIZONA INCLUDING KIPL AND
KBLH...
UPPER TROUGH CONTINUES TO MOVE INTO ARIZONA THIS AM...LEAVING
DRYING NORTHWESTERLY FLOW OVER THE REGION. ELEVATED WINDS PSBL
AGAIN THIS AFTERNOON...WITH GUSTS INTO THE 20KT RANGE LASTING
THROUGH SUNSET OR SO. MID TO HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS WILL DRIFT ACROSS
THE AREA...GNLY REMAINING AOA 10KFT WITH FURTHER CLEARING INTO
THE LATE EVENING.

AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDED TAFS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...
SUBTLE TROUGH HEIGHTS WILL LINGER OVER THE FOUR CORNERS REGION IN
THE WAKE OF THE PASSING UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM OVER THE WEEKEND. SOME
PERIODS OF ELEVATED NORTHEASTERLY BREEZES ARE POSSIBLE OVER SOUTH-
CENTRAL AZ THRU MIDWEEK... LIKELY DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS
ENHANCING THE ALREADY TYPICAL DRAINAGE PATTERN. TEMPERATURES WILL
BEGIN TO WARM SUBSTANTIALLY AND APPROACH THE TRIPLE DIGIT MARK FOR
THE LATTER PART OF THE WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS TO OUR WEST.
AFTERNOON HUMIDITIES WILL DROP INTO THE LOWER TEENS AND UPPER SINGLE
DIGITS WITH FAIR OVERNIGHT RECOVERIES EXPECTED. WINDS WILL BE GNLY
LIGHT AND SHOULD FOLLOW TYPICAL DIURNAL PATTERNS.

&&


VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/PHOENIX

DISCUSSION...VASQUEZ
AVIATION...NOLTE
FIRE WEATHER...NOLTE



  [top]

000
FXUS65 KFGZ 261144
AFDFGZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ
440 AM MST SUN APR 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE THIS MORNING...WITH DECREASING
COVERAGE LATER THIS AFTERNOON. THERE IS ALSO A SLIGHT CHANCE OF A
FEW THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON. MUCH WARMER AND DRIER WEATHER WILL
ARRIVE STARTING MONDAY AND CONTINUING THROUGH THE WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...THE TROUGH IS PUSHING THROUGH ARIZONA THIS
MORNING...WITH THE BEST LARGE SCALE LIFT AND STEADY PRECIPITATION
SHIFTING INTO FAR EASTERN ARIZONA. SHOWERS CONTINUE FARTHER WEST IN
THE UNSTABLE AIR MASS...WITH SNOW LEVELS NEAR 6500 FEET.
ACCUMULATING SNOW HAS BEEN REPORTED NORTH AND WEST OF FLAGSTAFF WITH
2" AT WILLIAMS AND 4-5" AT BELLEMONT WITH SOME SNOW COVERED ROADS.
SNOW HAS ALSO LIKELY ACCUMULATED ALONG THE EASTERN MOGOLLON RIM
ABOVE 6500-7000 FEET OVERNIGHT. THE TROUGH WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT
EASTWARD AS THE DAY PROGRESSES...THOUGH AREAS FROM THE MOGOLLON RIM
EASTWARD WILL REMAIN IN AN UNSTABLE NORTHWEST FLOW. EXPECT SCATTERED
TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS IN THIS AREA THIS AFTERNOON WITH SNOW LEVELS
RISING TO 7000 FEET OR HIGHER. TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...THE TROUGH
WILL SHIFT WELL EAST OF THE AREA AS A RIDGE MOVES ONTO THE WEST
COAST. ENOUGH MOISTURE WILL LINGER FOR A SLIGHT CHANCE OF LIGHT
SHOWERS MONDAY ACROSS FAR EASTERN AZ...THEN FROM FLAGSTAFF EASTWARD
BY TUESDAY...CLEARING OUT BY WEDNESDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL WARM TO
NEAR NORMAL BY MONDAY...THEN CLOSE TO 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL FOR
THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...
FOR THE 12Z PACKAGE...WIDESPREAD MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS ACROSS NORTHERN
ARIZONA THROUGH 18Z DUE TO PRECIP OR STRATUS AND FOG. AREAS SOUTH
AND EAST OF A K0V7-KFLG KPRC LINE WILL SEE RAIN AND/OR SNOW SHOWERS
WITH THE FRONTAL BAND. AREAS NORTH AND WEST OF THIS LINE DUE TO
STRATUS AND AREAS OF FOG.

AFT 18Z THE MAIN BAND OF PRECIP TO BE EAST OF THE AZ/NM BORDER.  AN
UNSTABLE AIRMASS WILL KEEP BKN-OVC CIGS OVER THE AREA WITH SCATTERED
-SHRA AND A CHANCE OF A THUNDERSTORM. AFTERNOON SFC WINDS W-NW
10-20KT GUSTS TO 25KT. AFT 00Z PRECIPITATION COVERAGE ENDS FROM
NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST WITH VFR CONDITIONS FORECAST OVERNIGHT.
AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR TAF AMENDMENTS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...A STRONG AND COLD STORM SYSTEM IS CENTERED OVER
NORTHERN ARIZONA THIS MORNING. WETTING PRECIP AMOUNTS WERE
MEASURED SATURDAY NIGHT ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA WITH AMOUNTS
EXCEEDING 0.40 INCH ALONG THE MOGOLLON RIM. THE MAIN BAND OF PRECIP
TO COVER NAVAJO AND APACHE COUNTIES THROUGH THE MORNING. FURTHER
WEST EXPECT A CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS. A STRAY THUNDERSTORM IS
POSSIBLE ACROSS THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON. MAX TEMPS TO BE 10 TO 15
DEGREES BELOW NORMAL TODAY. PRECIP CHANCES END FROM WEST TO EAST
TONIGHT.

FROM MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...ON MONDAY...DRY WEATHER RETURNS FOR
MOST OF THE AREA AS A WARMING TREND COMMENCES. A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
LIGHT AFTERNOON SHOWERS WILL PERSIST ACROSS APACHE COUNTY AND THE
MOGOLLON RIM AREAS THROUGH TUESDAY.

&&

.FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC.........JJ
AVIATION.......DL
FIRE WEATHER...DL

FOR NORTHERN ARIZONA WEATHER INFORMATION VISIT
WEATHER.GOV/FLAGSTAFF





000
FXUS65 KPSR 260949
AFDPSR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PHOENIX AZ
250 AM MST SUN APR 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER ARIZONA WILL MOVE INTO NEW
MEXICO TODAY. LINGERING SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE
CONFINED TO EASTERN ARIZONA...WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES ACROSS
SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA AND WESTERN ARIZONA. DRY WEATHER WITH A WARMING
TREND IS FORECAST THIS WEEK...WITH LOWER DESERT TEMPERATURES
APPROACHING THE 100 DEGREE MARK BY WEDNESDAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

TODAY...A STRONG NEGATIVE TILT DIFLUENT TROF WORKED ITS WAY ACROSS
CENTRAL AZ FROM THE NORTHWEST LATE LAST EVENING. THE COMBINATION OF
A COLD FRONT AND LONG LIVED CONVECTIVE OUTFLOWS MOVED THROUGH THE
GREATER PHOENIX AREA BETWEEN 1030 PM AND MIDNIGHT PRODUCING WIND
GUSTS TO 44 MPH AT WILLIAMS GATEWAY AIRPORT...AND 43 MPH AT PHOENIX
SKY HARBOR AIRPORT...LUKE AIR FORCE BASE...AND DEER VALLEY AIRPORTS.
ITS INTERESTING THAT MOST OF THE GREATER PHOENIX AREA SAW RAINFALL
OVERNIGHT...HOWEVER THUNDERSTORMS SEEMED TO HAVE LEAP-FROG OVER
PHOENIX WITH NUMEROUS STRIKES NOTED IN PINAL COUNTY BETWEEN CASA
GRANDE AND QUEEN CREEK...INCLUDING SACATON AND COOLIDGE AROUND 11 PM.

THE NEGATIVE TILT DIFLUENT TROF WILL CONTINUE TO WORK ITS WAY
THROUGH AZ THIS MORNING AND INTO NEW MEXICO THIS AFTERNOON. AS A
RESULT...SCT LIGHT SHOWERS WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS
WILL CONTINUE GENERALLY FROM PHOENIX EAST AND SOUTHEASTWARD THROUGH
AFTERNOON...THEN BE CONFINED MAINLY OVER MOUNTAINOUS OF SOUTHERN
GILA COUNTY ZONE 24 THIS EVENING.

TONIGHT...A FEW SHOWERS SHOULD CONTINUE OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF
SOUTHERN GILA COUNTY THIS EVENING...OTHERWISE MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES ARE
EXPECTED OVER THE FORECAST AREA...SOUTHEAST CA TO SOUTH CENTRAL AZ.
THE ONLY PROBLEM AREA WILL BE MODERATELY STRONG POST FRONTAL NORTH
WINDS DOWN THE COLORADO RIVER TONIGHT IN THE 15 TO 25 MPH RANGE.

MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...DRY NORTHERLY FLOW ALOFT IS WILL DEVELOP
MONDAY AND TUESDAY FOLLOWED BY A BUILDING RIDGE WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY. MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES WITH A STRONG WARMING TREND IS
EXPECTED. AFTERNOON TEMPS ON THE WARMEST DESERTS SHOULD APPROACH 100
DEGREES WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.

FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...DRY WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WITH A LITTLE COOLER
TEMPERATURES.

&&

AVIATION DISCUSSION...

SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA INCLUDING KPHX...KIWA...AND KSDL... MAIN
FRONTAL FEATURE AND PREDOMINANT SHOWER ACTIVITY HAS CLEARED MOSTLY
EAST OF THE PHX METRO. WINDS IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONTAL PASSAGE WILL
BE MUCH CALMER IN TERMS OF SPEEDS AND ON THE MORE VARIABLE SIDE IN
TERMS OF HEADINGS. THERE MAY BE SOME SUBTLE DRIFT TO EAST HEADING
TOWARDS SUNRISE...AS RAIN COOLED AIR FLOWS INTO THE METRO FROM THE
HIGHER TERRAIN TO THE EAST...HOWEVER SPEEDS SHOULD STILL REMAIN ON
THE LIGHT SIDE AND UNDER 6KTS EVEN IF EAST HEADINGS ARE REALIZED.
MID-LEVEL CIGS AOA 8-10KFT WILL PERSIST INTO THE EVENING WITH SOME
POCKETS OF FEW-SCT PATCHES AROUND 5KFT. ANOTHER ROUND OF STRONG WEST
WINDS PROGGED LATER TOWARDS MIDDAY...WITH GUSTS IN THE 20KT RANGE
POSSIBLE AGAIN.


SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA AND SOUTHWEST ARIZONA INCLUDING KIPL AND
KBLH... MAIN WEATHER ISSUE IN THE TAFS WILL BE GUSTY WEST WINDS
TONIGHT...AND WE MAY SEE OCCASIONAL GUSTS OVER 30KT THROUGH 05Z OR
SO BEFORE THEY START TO TAPER OFF. FOR THE MOST PART EXPECT VIS
VALUES AOA 6SM FOR THE REST OF TONIGHT AS WINDS SLOWLY TAPER OFF.
MAY SEE A FEW CIGS AROUND 8-10K FEET AT KBLH THROUGH MIDNIGHT WITH A
SHOWER POSSIBLE...BUT THEN CLEARING WILL OCCUR AS THE MAIN TROF
EXITS TO THE EAST. LLWS IS POSSIBLE AT KBLH AFTER MIDNIGHT AS
SURFACE WINDS TAPER OFF BELOW 12KT...BUT 35KT NORTHWEST WINDS SET UP
JUST ABOVE THE SURFACE. HAVE MENTIONED THIS IN THE KBLH TAF. EXPECT
A RETURN TO GUSTY NORTHWEST/NORTH WINDS DOWN THE RIVER SUNDAY WITH
OCCASIONAL GUSTS ABOVE 25KT POSSIBLE. BREEZY WEST WINDS WILL ALSO
OCCUR AT KIPL SUNDAY...UNDER MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES.

AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDED TAFS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...IN THE WAKE OF THE DEPARTING
TROUGH...NEXT WEEK WILL SEE THE ARRIVAL OF A STRONG UPPER RIDGE OVER
THE SOUTHWESTERN CONUS FROM MONDAY THROUGH MOST OF THE WEEK.
TEMPERATURES WILL WARM SUBSTANTIALLY AND APPROACH THE TRIPLE DIGIT
MARK FOR THE LATTER PART OF THE WEEK. AFTERNOON HUMIDITIES WILL DROP
INTO THE LOWER TEENS AND UPPER SINGLE DIGITS WITH FAIR OVERNIGHT
RECOVERIES EXPECTED. WINDS WILL BE GNLY LIGHT AND SHOULD FOLLOW
TYPICAL DIURNAL PATTERNS.

&&


VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/PHOENIX

DISCUSSION...VASQUEZ
AVIATION...NOLTE
FIRE WEATHER...NOLTE/LEINS



000
FXUS65 KPSR 260949
AFDPSR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PHOENIX AZ
250 AM MST SUN APR 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER ARIZONA WILL MOVE INTO NEW
MEXICO TODAY. LINGERING SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE
CONFINED TO EASTERN ARIZONA...WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES ACROSS
SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA AND WESTERN ARIZONA. DRY WEATHER WITH A WARMING
TREND IS FORECAST THIS WEEK...WITH LOWER DESERT TEMPERATURES
APPROACHING THE 100 DEGREE MARK BY WEDNESDAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

TODAY...A STRONG NEGATIVE TILT DIFLUENT TROF WORKED ITS WAY ACROSS
CENTRAL AZ FROM THE NORTHWEST LATE LAST EVENING. THE COMBINATION OF
A COLD FRONT AND LONG LIVED CONVECTIVE OUTFLOWS MOVED THROUGH THE
GREATER PHOENIX AREA BETWEEN 1030 PM AND MIDNIGHT PRODUCING WIND
GUSTS TO 44 MPH AT WILLIAMS GATEWAY AIRPORT...AND 43 MPH AT PHOENIX
SKY HARBOR AIRPORT...LUKE AIR FORCE BASE...AND DEER VALLEY AIRPORTS.
ITS INTERESTING THAT MOST OF THE GREATER PHOENIX AREA SAW RAINFALL
OVERNIGHT...HOWEVER THUNDERSTORMS SEEMED TO HAVE LEAP-FROG OVER
PHOENIX WITH NUMEROUS STRIKES NOTED IN PINAL COUNTY BETWEEN CASA
GRANDE AND QUEEN CREEK...INCLUDING SACATON AND COOLIDGE AROUND 11 PM.

THE NEGATIVE TILT DIFLUENT TROF WILL CONTINUE TO WORK ITS WAY
THROUGH AZ THIS MORNING AND INTO NEW MEXICO THIS AFTERNOON. AS A
RESULT...SCT LIGHT SHOWERS WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS
WILL CONTINUE GENERALLY FROM PHOENIX EAST AND SOUTHEASTWARD THROUGH
AFTERNOON...THEN BE CONFINED MAINLY OVER MOUNTAINOUS OF SOUTHERN
GILA COUNTY ZONE 24 THIS EVENING.

TONIGHT...A FEW SHOWERS SHOULD CONTINUE OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF
SOUTHERN GILA COUNTY THIS EVENING...OTHERWISE MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES ARE
EXPECTED OVER THE FORECAST AREA...SOUTHEAST CA TO SOUTH CENTRAL AZ.
THE ONLY PROBLEM AREA WILL BE MODERATELY STRONG POST FRONTAL NORTH
WINDS DOWN THE COLORADO RIVER TONIGHT IN THE 15 TO 25 MPH RANGE.

MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...DRY NORTHERLY FLOW ALOFT IS WILL DEVELOP
MONDAY AND TUESDAY FOLLOWED BY A BUILDING RIDGE WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY. MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES WITH A STRONG WARMING TREND IS
EXPECTED. AFTERNOON TEMPS ON THE WARMEST DESERTS SHOULD APPROACH 100
DEGREES WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.

FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...DRY WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WITH A LITTLE COOLER
TEMPERATURES.

&&

AVIATION DISCUSSION...

SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA INCLUDING KPHX...KIWA...AND KSDL... MAIN
FRONTAL FEATURE AND PREDOMINANT SHOWER ACTIVITY HAS CLEARED MOSTLY
EAST OF THE PHX METRO. WINDS IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONTAL PASSAGE WILL
BE MUCH CALMER IN TERMS OF SPEEDS AND ON THE MORE VARIABLE SIDE IN
TERMS OF HEADINGS. THERE MAY BE SOME SUBTLE DRIFT TO EAST HEADING
TOWARDS SUNRISE...AS RAIN COOLED AIR FLOWS INTO THE METRO FROM THE
HIGHER TERRAIN TO THE EAST...HOWEVER SPEEDS SHOULD STILL REMAIN ON
THE LIGHT SIDE AND UNDER 6KTS EVEN IF EAST HEADINGS ARE REALIZED.
MID-LEVEL CIGS AOA 8-10KFT WILL PERSIST INTO THE EVENING WITH SOME
POCKETS OF FEW-SCT PATCHES AROUND 5KFT. ANOTHER ROUND OF STRONG WEST
WINDS PROGGED LATER TOWARDS MIDDAY...WITH GUSTS IN THE 20KT RANGE
POSSIBLE AGAIN.


SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA AND SOUTHWEST ARIZONA INCLUDING KIPL AND
KBLH... MAIN WEATHER ISSUE IN THE TAFS WILL BE GUSTY WEST WINDS
TONIGHT...AND WE MAY SEE OCCASIONAL GUSTS OVER 30KT THROUGH 05Z OR
SO BEFORE THEY START TO TAPER OFF. FOR THE MOST PART EXPECT VIS
VALUES AOA 6SM FOR THE REST OF TONIGHT AS WINDS SLOWLY TAPER OFF.
MAY SEE A FEW CIGS AROUND 8-10K FEET AT KBLH THROUGH MIDNIGHT WITH A
SHOWER POSSIBLE...BUT THEN CLEARING WILL OCCUR AS THE MAIN TROF
EXITS TO THE EAST. LLWS IS POSSIBLE AT KBLH AFTER MIDNIGHT AS
SURFACE WINDS TAPER OFF BELOW 12KT...BUT 35KT NORTHWEST WINDS SET UP
JUST ABOVE THE SURFACE. HAVE MENTIONED THIS IN THE KBLH TAF. EXPECT
A RETURN TO GUSTY NORTHWEST/NORTH WINDS DOWN THE RIVER SUNDAY WITH
OCCASIONAL GUSTS ABOVE 25KT POSSIBLE. BREEZY WEST WINDS WILL ALSO
OCCUR AT KIPL SUNDAY...UNDER MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES.

AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDED TAFS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...IN THE WAKE OF THE DEPARTING
TROUGH...NEXT WEEK WILL SEE THE ARRIVAL OF A STRONG UPPER RIDGE OVER
THE SOUTHWESTERN CONUS FROM MONDAY THROUGH MOST OF THE WEEK.
TEMPERATURES WILL WARM SUBSTANTIALLY AND APPROACH THE TRIPLE DIGIT
MARK FOR THE LATTER PART OF THE WEEK. AFTERNOON HUMIDITIES WILL DROP
INTO THE LOWER TEENS AND UPPER SINGLE DIGITS WITH FAIR OVERNIGHT
RECOVERIES EXPECTED. WINDS WILL BE GNLY LIGHT AND SHOULD FOLLOW
TYPICAL DIURNAL PATTERNS.

&&


VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/PHOENIX

DISCUSSION...VASQUEZ
AVIATION...NOLTE
FIRE WEATHER...NOLTE/LEINS




000
FXUS65 KPSR 260949
AFDPSR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PHOENIX AZ
250 AM MST SUN APR 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER ARIZONA WILL MOVE INTO NEW
MEXICO TODAY. LINGERING SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE
CONFINED TO EASTERN ARIZONA...WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES ACROSS
SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA AND WESTERN ARIZONA. DRY WEATHER WITH A WARMING
TREND IS FORECAST THIS WEEK...WITH LOWER DESERT TEMPERATURES
APPROACHING THE 100 DEGREE MARK BY WEDNESDAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

TODAY...A STRONG NEGATIVE TILT DIFLUENT TROF WORKED ITS WAY ACROSS
CENTRAL AZ FROM THE NORTHWEST LATE LAST EVENING. THE COMBINATION OF
A COLD FRONT AND LONG LIVED CONVECTIVE OUTFLOWS MOVED THROUGH THE
GREATER PHOENIX AREA BETWEEN 1030 PM AND MIDNIGHT PRODUCING WIND
GUSTS TO 44 MPH AT WILLIAMS GATEWAY AIRPORT...AND 43 MPH AT PHOENIX
SKY HARBOR AIRPORT...LUKE AIR FORCE BASE...AND DEER VALLEY AIRPORTS.
ITS INTERESTING THAT MOST OF THE GREATER PHOENIX AREA SAW RAINFALL
OVERNIGHT...HOWEVER THUNDERSTORMS SEEMED TO HAVE LEAP-FROG OVER
PHOENIX WITH NUMEROUS STRIKES NOTED IN PINAL COUNTY BETWEEN CASA
GRANDE AND QUEEN CREEK...INCLUDING SACATON AND COOLIDGE AROUND 11 PM.

THE NEGATIVE TILT DIFLUENT TROF WILL CONTINUE TO WORK ITS WAY
THROUGH AZ THIS MORNING AND INTO NEW MEXICO THIS AFTERNOON. AS A
RESULT...SCT LIGHT SHOWERS WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS
WILL CONTINUE GENERALLY FROM PHOENIX EAST AND SOUTHEASTWARD THROUGH
AFTERNOON...THEN BE CONFINED MAINLY OVER MOUNTAINOUS OF SOUTHERN
GILA COUNTY ZONE 24 THIS EVENING.

TONIGHT...A FEW SHOWERS SHOULD CONTINUE OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF
SOUTHERN GILA COUNTY THIS EVENING...OTHERWISE MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES ARE
EXPECTED OVER THE FORECAST AREA...SOUTHEAST CA TO SOUTH CENTRAL AZ.
THE ONLY PROBLEM AREA WILL BE MODERATELY STRONG POST FRONTAL NORTH
WINDS DOWN THE COLORADO RIVER TONIGHT IN THE 15 TO 25 MPH RANGE.

MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...DRY NORTHERLY FLOW ALOFT IS WILL DEVELOP
MONDAY AND TUESDAY FOLLOWED BY A BUILDING RIDGE WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY. MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES WITH A STRONG WARMING TREND IS
EXPECTED. AFTERNOON TEMPS ON THE WARMEST DESERTS SHOULD APPROACH 100
DEGREES WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.

FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...DRY WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WITH A LITTLE COOLER
TEMPERATURES.

&&

AVIATION DISCUSSION...

SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA INCLUDING KPHX...KIWA...AND KSDL... MAIN
FRONTAL FEATURE AND PREDOMINANT SHOWER ACTIVITY HAS CLEARED MOSTLY
EAST OF THE PHX METRO. WINDS IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONTAL PASSAGE WILL
BE MUCH CALMER IN TERMS OF SPEEDS AND ON THE MORE VARIABLE SIDE IN
TERMS OF HEADINGS. THERE MAY BE SOME SUBTLE DRIFT TO EAST HEADING
TOWARDS SUNRISE...AS RAIN COOLED AIR FLOWS INTO THE METRO FROM THE
HIGHER TERRAIN TO THE EAST...HOWEVER SPEEDS SHOULD STILL REMAIN ON
THE LIGHT SIDE AND UNDER 6KTS EVEN IF EAST HEADINGS ARE REALIZED.
MID-LEVEL CIGS AOA 8-10KFT WILL PERSIST INTO THE EVENING WITH SOME
POCKETS OF FEW-SCT PATCHES AROUND 5KFT. ANOTHER ROUND OF STRONG WEST
WINDS PROGGED LATER TOWARDS MIDDAY...WITH GUSTS IN THE 20KT RANGE
POSSIBLE AGAIN.


SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA AND SOUTHWEST ARIZONA INCLUDING KIPL AND
KBLH... MAIN WEATHER ISSUE IN THE TAFS WILL BE GUSTY WEST WINDS
TONIGHT...AND WE MAY SEE OCCASIONAL GUSTS OVER 30KT THROUGH 05Z OR
SO BEFORE THEY START TO TAPER OFF. FOR THE MOST PART EXPECT VIS
VALUES AOA 6SM FOR THE REST OF TONIGHT AS WINDS SLOWLY TAPER OFF.
MAY SEE A FEW CIGS AROUND 8-10K FEET AT KBLH THROUGH MIDNIGHT WITH A
SHOWER POSSIBLE...BUT THEN CLEARING WILL OCCUR AS THE MAIN TROF
EXITS TO THE EAST. LLWS IS POSSIBLE AT KBLH AFTER MIDNIGHT AS
SURFACE WINDS TAPER OFF BELOW 12KT...BUT 35KT NORTHWEST WINDS SET UP
JUST ABOVE THE SURFACE. HAVE MENTIONED THIS IN THE KBLH TAF. EXPECT
A RETURN TO GUSTY NORTHWEST/NORTH WINDS DOWN THE RIVER SUNDAY WITH
OCCASIONAL GUSTS ABOVE 25KT POSSIBLE. BREEZY WEST WINDS WILL ALSO
OCCUR AT KIPL SUNDAY...UNDER MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES.

AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDED TAFS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...IN THE WAKE OF THE DEPARTING
TROUGH...NEXT WEEK WILL SEE THE ARRIVAL OF A STRONG UPPER RIDGE OVER
THE SOUTHWESTERN CONUS FROM MONDAY THROUGH MOST OF THE WEEK.
TEMPERATURES WILL WARM SUBSTANTIALLY AND APPROACH THE TRIPLE DIGIT
MARK FOR THE LATTER PART OF THE WEEK. AFTERNOON HUMIDITIES WILL DROP
INTO THE LOWER TEENS AND UPPER SINGLE DIGITS WITH FAIR OVERNIGHT
RECOVERIES EXPECTED. WINDS WILL BE GNLY LIGHT AND SHOULD FOLLOW
TYPICAL DIURNAL PATTERNS.

&&


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DISCUSSION...VASQUEZ
AVIATION...NOLTE
FIRE WEATHER...NOLTE/LEINS


  [top]

000
FXUS65 KTWC 260937
AFDTWC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ
237 AM MST SUN APR 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...SCATTERED SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE
TO TRACK EASTWARD ACROSS THE AREA THIS MORNING...THEN DIMINISH IN
THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. COOLER TEMPERATURES CAN ALSO BE
ANTICIPATED TODAY. A FEW SHOWERS MAY OCCUR ACROSS THE WHITE
MOUNTAINS MONDAY AND TUESDAY. THEREAFTER...DRY CONDITIONS WITH WELL
ABOVE NORMAL DAYTIME TEMPERATURES WILL PREVAIL WEDNESDAY THROUGH
SATURDAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...A RATHER STRONG SYSTEM MOVING THROUGH THE REGION WILL
CONTINUE TO BRING SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS TO SOUTHEAST
ARIZONA TODAY. MOST OF THE SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WAS
PASSING THROUGH PIMA...GRAHAM AND GREENLEE COUNTIES EARLY THIS
MORNING. THE SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL SPREAD FARTHER
EAST THIS AFTERNOON AND DIMINISH IN AREAL COVERAGE AS THE SYSTEM
MOVES INTO NEW MEXICO. THE SNOW LEVEL WAS NEAR 8000 FEET EARLY THIS
MORNING...SO JUST EXPECTING SOME ACCUMULATIONS ON THE MOUNTAINTOPS
TODAY. THEREAFTER...A FEW LINGERING SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THE
WHITE MOUNTAINS MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. MODELS CONTINUED TO DEPICT A
STRONG RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING OVER THE AREA THIS COMING
WEEK. THIS WILL RESULT IN DRY CONDITIONS AND A SIGNIFICANT WARMUP IN
DAYTIME TEMPERATURES BY THURSDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...VALID THRU 27/12Z. SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS
-SHRA AND ISOLATED -TSRA THRU THIS AFTERNOON. THE BEST CHANCE FOR
PRECIPITATION WILL BE NORTH OF A SAN SIMON-KTUS-SELLS LINE.
OCCASIONAL MVFR CONDITIONS MAY OCCUR IN AND NEAR -SHRA/-TSRA...AND
NEAR THE HIGHER TERRAIN. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED -SHRA/-TSRA SHOULD BE
CONFINED TO AREAS NORTH AND EAST OF KTUS AFTER 27/00Z.

EXPECT BKN TO OVC CLOUDS THRU MIDDAY AT 5-10K FT AGL. SKIES WILL
GRADUALLY CLEAR FROM WEST TO EAST THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
SURFACE WIND WILL INCREASE TO BE WLY/NWLY AT 12-25 KTS WITH GUSTS OF
30-40 KTS GENERALLY AFT 26/16Z. THE STRONGEST WIND IS EXPECTED
ACROSS EASTERN AREAS ADJACENT TO THE NEW MEXICO BORDER. SURFACE WIND
WILL DIMINISH TO AROUND 10 KTS AT MOST LOCATIONS AFT 27/03Z.
AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR TAF AMENDMENTS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...A STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING NORTH OF THE
AREA WILL BRING SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON HOURS TODAY. THE BEST CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION IS
GENERALLY NORTH OF A SAN SIMON-TUCSON-SELLS LINE. SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING BRIEF GUSTY AND ERRATIC
WINDS. ANOTHER ROUND OF WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS AT 15-25 MPH AND A
FEW GUSTS TO AROUND 40 MPH WILL OCCUR THIS AFTERNOON. A FEW
LINGERING SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE WHITE MOUNTAINS MONDAY AND
TUESDAY. OTHERWISE AND ELSEWHERE...EXPECT DRY CONDITIONS WITH A
PRONOUNCED WARMING TREND THROUGH THURSDAY. GUSTY EAST WINDS MAY
OCCUR TUESDAY...THROUGH SPEEDS WILL NOT BE AS STRONG AS THIS WEEKEND.

&&

.TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...YOUTUBE...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/TUCSON




000
FXUS65 KPSR 260818
AFDPSR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PHOENIX AZ
116 AM MST SUN APR 26 2015

.UPDATE...TO AVIATION DISCUSSION...

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION EARLY TONIGHT
BRINGING GUSTY WINDS AND GOOD CHANCES FOR RAIN. CHANCES FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL INCREASE THIS EVENING AND INTO
TONIGHT...BUT MAINLY ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH CENTRAL
ARIZONA. LINGERING SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED SUNDAY OVER EASTERN
ARIZONA...WITH CLEARING OVER SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA AND SOUTHWEST
ARIZONA. DRIER AND MUCH WARMER WEATHER IS EXPECTED NEXT WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

...POTENT UPPER TROUGH AND FRONTAL PASSAGE ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT
WITH STRONG GUSTY WINDS AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES...

VIGOROUS MID SPRING PACIFIC STORM SYSTEM CONTINUED TO MOVE EASTWARD
ACROSS THE DESERT SOUTHWEST EARLY THIS EVENING...BRINGING SCATTERED
TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AS WELL AS EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS TO THE STATE.
00Z PLOT DATA SHOWED THE LARGEST H5 HEIGHT FALLS ACROSS NWRN ARIZONA
AND FAR SRN NEVADA...WITH 70M FALLS NEAR LAS VEGAS. COLDEST
AIR...NEAR THE CENTER OF THE LOW...WAS WELL TO OUR NORTH AND
NORTHWEST...WITH READINGS DOWN TO MINUS 22C AT 500MB OVER FAR SRN
NEVADA/FAR NWRN AZ. CORRESPONDINGLY THE MOST SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION
HAS STAYED TO OUR NORTH...ALTHOUGH AT 8 PM A CLUSTER OF SOMEWHAT
WEAK STORMS WERE SEEN MOVING THROUGH PORTIONS OF LA PAZ
COUNTY...APPROACHING NORTHWEST MARICOPA COUNTY. IR IMAGERY AT 8 PM
SHOWED GENERALLY CLOUDY SKIES OVER MOST OF ARIZONA WITH PARTIAL
CLEARING TAKING PLACE WEST OF THE LOWER COLORADO RIVER VALLEY.

GUIDANCE REMAINS CONSISTENT IN CALLING FOR THE STORM TO DIVE
SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS ARIZONA TONIGHT...BRINGING SOME OF THE BEST
FORCING TO CENTRAL AZ BY 12Z SUNDAY. A LARGE BULLSEYE OF MID LEVEL Q
CONVERGENCE AND STRONG PVA FOCUS INTO MARICOPA COUNTY AFTER MIDNIGHT
TONIGHT AND THERE APPEARS TO BE SUFFICIENT MOISTURE TO ALLOW FOR
NUMEROUS SHOWERS FORMING OVER THE CENTRAL DESERTS STARTING LATER
THIS EVENING AND PERSISTING WELL PAST MIDNIGHT. DESPITE SOMEWHAT
LIMITED CAPE VALUES...THERE IS ENOUGH FORCING AND A STRONG ENOUGH
UPPER WIND FIELD TO ALLOW ISOLATED STORMS TO FORM TONIGHT...AND ANY
STORM THAT FORMS HAS THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE GUSTY WINDS IN EXCESS
OF 40 MPH AS WELL AS SMALLER HAIL AND BRIEF MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN.
BY SUNRISE SUNDAY...CLEARING WILL TAKING PLACE WEST OF MARICOPA
COUNTY AS STRONGER SUBSIDENCE BEHIND THE PASSING TROF MOVES INTO THE
AREA. STRONG AND GUSTY WEST WINDS CONTINUED OVER PORTIONS OF
IMPERIAL AND EASTERN RIVERSIDE COUNTY EARLY THIS EVENING...WITH
OCCASIONAL GUSTS REACHING TO NEAR OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE WIND ADVISORY
LEVELS. EXPECT THE WINDS TO GRADUALLY TAPER OFF AND FOR THE MOST
PART SHOULD DROP BELOW CRITERIA BY THE TIME THE ADVISORY ENDS AT 9
PM. FORECASTS HAVE BEEN ADJUSTED FOR CURRENT SKY...POP AND WEATHER
TRENDS AND APPEARS TO BE IN GOOD SHAPE FOR NOW.

.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
TODAY THUS FAR HAS BEEN FAIRLY QUIET ACROSS THE AREA EXCEPT FOR SOME
LIGHT SHOWERS PASSING THROUGH RIVERSIDE AND LA PAZ COUNTIES WITH
SOME RECENT DEVELOPMENT JUST TO OUR NORTH IN YAVAPAI COUNTY. THESE
SHOWERS WERE IN RESPONSE TO A WEAKENING SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING INTO
CENTRAL ARIZONA OUT AHEAD OF THE MAIN TROUGH THAT WILL AFFECT THE
AREA LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT. CURRENT WATER VAPOR AND UPPER HEIGHT
ANALYSIS SHOWS A RATHER IMPRESSIVE UPPER TROUGH APPROACHING FROM THE
NORTHWEST WITH THE MAIN SHORTWAVE TROUGH JUST WEST OF LAS VEGAS.
DIFLUENT FLOW ALOFT OVER SOUTHERN NEVADA AND UTAH ALONG WITH STRONG
500MB HEIGHT FALLS CENTERED OVER THE SIERRAS ARE HELPING TO SPARK
OFF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. WINDS AHEAD OF AN ADVANCING
COLD FRONT HAVE BECOME GUSTY ACROSS SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA WITH SOME
GUSTS TO AROUND 35 KNOTS. AS THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH THIS
EVENING...CAN EXPECT SOME WIND GUSTS UP TO 40-45 KNOTS IN SOME
LOCALIZED SPOTS ALONG WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME BLOWING DUST.

THE MAIN SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND COLD FRONT WILL QUICKLY DIVE
SOUTHEASTWARD THROUGH THE REST OF TODAY...REACHING SOUTH-CENTRAL
ARIZONA AROUND 06Z THIS EVENING. STILL EXPECTING SCATTERED TO
WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP AHEAD OF THESE
FEATURES DURING THE EVENING TIME FRAME WITH BEST CHANCES STRETCHING
FROM NORTHERN LA PAZ COUNTY THROUGH MUCH OF MARICOPA COUNTY...INTO
SOUTHERN GILA COUNTY. CONDITIONS REMAIN RATHER MOIST BETWEEN 8-10K
FEET...BUT FURTHER MOISTENING IN THE MID LEVELS WILL OCCUR AS THE
TROUGH AND COLDER AIR MOVES IN FROM THE NORTHWEST. THE MOIST
CONDITIONS...WEAK UPSLOPE LOW LEVEL FLOW...AND STRONG FORECAST MODEL
OMEGA FOR THIS EVENING ACROSS SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA...WILL ALL COME
INTO PLAY TO AID IN SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT. STRONGER
SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO BRING SOME GUSTY
WINDS DOWN TO THE SURFACE...SO SOME STRONGER SUB-SEVERE GUSTS ARE
POSSIBLE.

BY SUNDAY MORNING...THE MAIN SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL BE MOVING INTO
WESTERN NEW MEXICO WITH SUBSIDENCE ALOFT WORKING INTO OUR WESTERN
ZONES. CHANCES FOR LINGERING SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH SUNDAY
MORNING FROM AROUND PHOENIX EASTWARD WITH BEST CHANCES OVER THE
HIGHER TERRAIN OF EAST-CENTRAL ARIZONA. BY MID TO LATE SUNDAY
AFTERNOON...THE DRIER AIR BEHIND THE TROUGH WILL HAVE MIXED OUT THE
LOW LEVELS ENOUGH TO BASICALLY KEEP ANY REMAINING SHOWER CHANCES
OVER HIGHER TERRAIN AREAS. OUR WESTERN ZONES SHOULD CLEAR OUT FAIRLY
QUICKLY ON SUNDAY WITH HIGHS REBOUNDING BACK INTO THE LOW TO MID
80S. ELSEWHERE...TEMPERATURES SHOULD ONLY PEAK OUT IN THE UPPER 70S
ACROSS THE SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA DESERTS.

FOR THE COMING WORK WEEK...A LARGE RIDGE IS FORECAST TO TAKE OVER
WITH DRY CONDITIONS AND WARMING TEMPERATURES. HIGHS BY MONDAY SHOULD
REACH NEAR NORMALS AND ONCE THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE FINALLY TAKES
OVER...TEMPERATURES WILL HEAT UP EVEN MORE WITH FORECAST HIGHS IN
THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 90S FOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY ACROSS THE
DESERTS. THOUGH THERE ARE SOME MODEL DIFFERENCES BEYOND NEXT
THURSDAY...THE GENERAL CONSENSUS IS THAT LARGE SCALE TROUGHING WILL
PUSH THE RIDGE OUT THE REGION ALLOWING FOR SOME MODERATION IN
TEMPERATURES...BUT CONTINUING WITH THE DRY CONDITIONS.

&&

AVIATION...

SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA INCLUDING KPHX...KIWA...AND KSDL...
MAIN FRONTAL FEATURE AND PREDOMINANT SHOWER ACTIVITY HAS CLEARED
MOSTLY EAST OF THE PHX METRO. WINDS IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONTAL
PASSAGE WILL BE MUCH CALMER IN TERMS OF SPEEDS AND ON THE MORE
VARIABLE SIDE IN TERMS OF HEADINGS. THERE MAY BE SOME SUBTLE DRIFT
TO EAST HEADING TOWARDS SUNRISE...AS RAIN COOLED AIR FLOWS INTO THE
METRO FROM THE HIGHER TERRAIN TO THE EAST...HOWEVER SPEEDS SHOULD
STILL REMAIN ON THE LIGHT SIDE AND UNDER 6KTS EVEN IF EAST HEADINGS
ARE REALIZED. MID-LEVEL CIGS AOA 8-10KFT WILL PERSIST INTO THE
EVENING WITH SOME POCKETS OF FEW-SCT PATCHES AROUND 5KFT. ANOTHER
ROUND OF STRONG WEST WINDS PROGGED LATER TOWARDS MIDDAY...WITH GUSTS
IN THE 20KT RANGE POSSIBLE AGAIN.


SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA AND SOUTHWEST ARIZONA INCLUDING KIPL AND
KBLH...
MAIN WEATHER ISSUE IN THE TAFS WILL BE GUSTY WEST WINDS
TONIGHT...AND WE MAY SEE OCCASIONAL GUSTS OVER 30KT THROUGH 05Z OR
SO BEFORE THEY START TO TAPER OFF. FOR THE MOST PART EXPECT VIS
VALUES AOA 6SM FOR THE REST OF TONIGHT AS WINDS SLOWLY TAPER OFF.
MAY SEE A FEW CIGS AROUND 8-10K FEET AT KBLH THROUGH MIDNIGHT WITH A
SHOWER POSSIBLE...BUT THEN CLEARING WILL OCCUR AS THE MAIN TROF
EXITS TO THE EAST. LLWS IS POSSIBLE AT KBLH AFTER MIDNIGHT AS
SURFACE WINDS TAPER OFF BELOW 12KT...BUT 35KT NORTHWEST WINDS SET UP
JUST ABOVE THE SURFACE. HAVE MENTIONED THIS IN THE KBLH TAF. EXPECT
A RETURN TO GUSTY NORTHWEST/NORTH WINDS DOWN THE RIVER SUNDAY WITH
OCCASIONAL GUSTS ABOVE 25KT POSSIBLE. BREEZY WEST WINDS WILL ALSO
OCCUR AT KIPL SUNDAY...UNDER MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES.

AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDED TAFS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...
IN THE WAKE OF THE DEPARTING TROUGH...NEXT WEEK WILL SEE THE ARRIVAL
OF A STRONG UPPER RIDGE OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN CONUS FROM MONDAY
THROUGH MOST OF THE WEEK. TEMPERATURES WILL WARM SUBSTANTIALLY AND
APPROACH THE TRIPLE DIGIT MARK FOR THE LATTER PART OF THE WEEK.
AFTERNOON HUMIDITIES WILL DROP INTO THE LOWER TEENS AND UPPER SINGLE
DIGITS WITH FAIR OVERNIGHT RECOVERIES EXPECTED. WINDS WILL BE GNLY
LIGHT AND SHOULD FOLLOW TYPICAL DIURNAL PATTERNS.

&&

.PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

AZ...NONE.

CA...NONE.

&&

$$

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DISCUSSION...CB
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...KUHLMAN
AVIATION...NOLTE/CB
FIRE WEATHER...NOLTE/LEINS



000
FXUS65 KPSR 260818
AFDPSR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PHOENIX AZ
116 AM MST SUN APR 26 2015

.UPDATE...TO AVIATION DISCUSSION...

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION EARLY TONIGHT
BRINGING GUSTY WINDS AND GOOD CHANCES FOR RAIN. CHANCES FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL INCREASE THIS EVENING AND INTO
TONIGHT...BUT MAINLY ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH CENTRAL
ARIZONA. LINGERING SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED SUNDAY OVER EASTERN
ARIZONA...WITH CLEARING OVER SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA AND SOUTHWEST
ARIZONA. DRIER AND MUCH WARMER WEATHER IS EXPECTED NEXT WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

...POTENT UPPER TROUGH AND FRONTAL PASSAGE ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT
WITH STRONG GUSTY WINDS AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES...

VIGOROUS MID SPRING PACIFIC STORM SYSTEM CONTINUED TO MOVE EASTWARD
ACROSS THE DESERT SOUTHWEST EARLY THIS EVENING...BRINGING SCATTERED
TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AS WELL AS EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS TO THE STATE.
00Z PLOT DATA SHOWED THE LARGEST H5 HEIGHT FALLS ACROSS NWRN ARIZONA
AND FAR SRN NEVADA...WITH 70M FALLS NEAR LAS VEGAS. COLDEST
AIR...NEAR THE CENTER OF THE LOW...WAS WELL TO OUR NORTH AND
NORTHWEST...WITH READINGS DOWN TO MINUS 22C AT 500MB OVER FAR SRN
NEVADA/FAR NWRN AZ. CORRESPONDINGLY THE MOST SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION
HAS STAYED TO OUR NORTH...ALTHOUGH AT 8 PM A CLUSTER OF SOMEWHAT
WEAK STORMS WERE SEEN MOVING THROUGH PORTIONS OF LA PAZ
COUNTY...APPROACHING NORTHWEST MARICOPA COUNTY. IR IMAGERY AT 8 PM
SHOWED GENERALLY CLOUDY SKIES OVER MOST OF ARIZONA WITH PARTIAL
CLEARING TAKING PLACE WEST OF THE LOWER COLORADO RIVER VALLEY.

GUIDANCE REMAINS CONSISTENT IN CALLING FOR THE STORM TO DIVE
SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS ARIZONA TONIGHT...BRINGING SOME OF THE BEST
FORCING TO CENTRAL AZ BY 12Z SUNDAY. A LARGE BULLSEYE OF MID LEVEL Q
CONVERGENCE AND STRONG PVA FOCUS INTO MARICOPA COUNTY AFTER MIDNIGHT
TONIGHT AND THERE APPEARS TO BE SUFFICIENT MOISTURE TO ALLOW FOR
NUMEROUS SHOWERS FORMING OVER THE CENTRAL DESERTS STARTING LATER
THIS EVENING AND PERSISTING WELL PAST MIDNIGHT. DESPITE SOMEWHAT
LIMITED CAPE VALUES...THERE IS ENOUGH FORCING AND A STRONG ENOUGH
UPPER WIND FIELD TO ALLOW ISOLATED STORMS TO FORM TONIGHT...AND ANY
STORM THAT FORMS HAS THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE GUSTY WINDS IN EXCESS
OF 40 MPH AS WELL AS SMALLER HAIL AND BRIEF MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN.
BY SUNRISE SUNDAY...CLEARING WILL TAKING PLACE WEST OF MARICOPA
COUNTY AS STRONGER SUBSIDENCE BEHIND THE PASSING TROF MOVES INTO THE
AREA. STRONG AND GUSTY WEST WINDS CONTINUED OVER PORTIONS OF
IMPERIAL AND EASTERN RIVERSIDE COUNTY EARLY THIS EVENING...WITH
OCCASIONAL GUSTS REACHING TO NEAR OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE WIND ADVISORY
LEVELS. EXPECT THE WINDS TO GRADUALLY TAPER OFF AND FOR THE MOST
PART SHOULD DROP BELOW CRITERIA BY THE TIME THE ADVISORY ENDS AT 9
PM. FORECASTS HAVE BEEN ADJUSTED FOR CURRENT SKY...POP AND WEATHER
TRENDS AND APPEARS TO BE IN GOOD SHAPE FOR NOW.

.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
TODAY THUS FAR HAS BEEN FAIRLY QUIET ACROSS THE AREA EXCEPT FOR SOME
LIGHT SHOWERS PASSING THROUGH RIVERSIDE AND LA PAZ COUNTIES WITH
SOME RECENT DEVELOPMENT JUST TO OUR NORTH IN YAVAPAI COUNTY. THESE
SHOWERS WERE IN RESPONSE TO A WEAKENING SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING INTO
CENTRAL ARIZONA OUT AHEAD OF THE MAIN TROUGH THAT WILL AFFECT THE
AREA LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT. CURRENT WATER VAPOR AND UPPER HEIGHT
ANALYSIS SHOWS A RATHER IMPRESSIVE UPPER TROUGH APPROACHING FROM THE
NORTHWEST WITH THE MAIN SHORTWAVE TROUGH JUST WEST OF LAS VEGAS.
DIFLUENT FLOW ALOFT OVER SOUTHERN NEVADA AND UTAH ALONG WITH STRONG
500MB HEIGHT FALLS CENTERED OVER THE SIERRAS ARE HELPING TO SPARK
OFF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. WINDS AHEAD OF AN ADVANCING
COLD FRONT HAVE BECOME GUSTY ACROSS SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA WITH SOME
GUSTS TO AROUND 35 KNOTS. AS THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH THIS
EVENING...CAN EXPECT SOME WIND GUSTS UP TO 40-45 KNOTS IN SOME
LOCALIZED SPOTS ALONG WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME BLOWING DUST.

THE MAIN SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND COLD FRONT WILL QUICKLY DIVE
SOUTHEASTWARD THROUGH THE REST OF TODAY...REACHING SOUTH-CENTRAL
ARIZONA AROUND 06Z THIS EVENING. STILL EXPECTING SCATTERED TO
WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP AHEAD OF THESE
FEATURES DURING THE EVENING TIME FRAME WITH BEST CHANCES STRETCHING
FROM NORTHERN LA PAZ COUNTY THROUGH MUCH OF MARICOPA COUNTY...INTO
SOUTHERN GILA COUNTY. CONDITIONS REMAIN RATHER MOIST BETWEEN 8-10K
FEET...BUT FURTHER MOISTENING IN THE MID LEVELS WILL OCCUR AS THE
TROUGH AND COLDER AIR MOVES IN FROM THE NORTHWEST. THE MOIST
CONDITIONS...WEAK UPSLOPE LOW LEVEL FLOW...AND STRONG FORECAST MODEL
OMEGA FOR THIS EVENING ACROSS SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA...WILL ALL COME
INTO PLAY TO AID IN SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT. STRONGER
SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO BRING SOME GUSTY
WINDS DOWN TO THE SURFACE...SO SOME STRONGER SUB-SEVERE GUSTS ARE
POSSIBLE.

BY SUNDAY MORNING...THE MAIN SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL BE MOVING INTO
WESTERN NEW MEXICO WITH SUBSIDENCE ALOFT WORKING INTO OUR WESTERN
ZONES. CHANCES FOR LINGERING SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH SUNDAY
MORNING FROM AROUND PHOENIX EASTWARD WITH BEST CHANCES OVER THE
HIGHER TERRAIN OF EAST-CENTRAL ARIZONA. BY MID TO LATE SUNDAY
AFTERNOON...THE DRIER AIR BEHIND THE TROUGH WILL HAVE MIXED OUT THE
LOW LEVELS ENOUGH TO BASICALLY KEEP ANY REMAINING SHOWER CHANCES
OVER HIGHER TERRAIN AREAS. OUR WESTERN ZONES SHOULD CLEAR OUT FAIRLY
QUICKLY ON SUNDAY WITH HIGHS REBOUNDING BACK INTO THE LOW TO MID
80S. ELSEWHERE...TEMPERATURES SHOULD ONLY PEAK OUT IN THE UPPER 70S
ACROSS THE SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA DESERTS.

FOR THE COMING WORK WEEK...A LARGE RIDGE IS FORECAST TO TAKE OVER
WITH DRY CONDITIONS AND WARMING TEMPERATURES. HIGHS BY MONDAY SHOULD
REACH NEAR NORMALS AND ONCE THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE FINALLY TAKES
OVER...TEMPERATURES WILL HEAT UP EVEN MORE WITH FORECAST HIGHS IN
THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 90S FOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY ACROSS THE
DESERTS. THOUGH THERE ARE SOME MODEL DIFFERENCES BEYOND NEXT
THURSDAY...THE GENERAL CONSENSUS IS THAT LARGE SCALE TROUGHING WILL
PUSH THE RIDGE OUT THE REGION ALLOWING FOR SOME MODERATION IN
TEMPERATURES...BUT CONTINUING WITH THE DRY CONDITIONS.

&&

AVIATION...

SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA INCLUDING KPHX...KIWA...AND KSDL...
MAIN FRONTAL FEATURE AND PREDOMINANT SHOWER ACTIVITY HAS CLEARED
MOSTLY EAST OF THE PHX METRO. WINDS IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONTAL
PASSAGE WILL BE MUCH CALMER IN TERMS OF SPEEDS AND ON THE MORE
VARIABLE SIDE IN TERMS OF HEADINGS. THERE MAY BE SOME SUBTLE DRIFT
TO EAST HEADING TOWARDS SUNRISE...AS RAIN COOLED AIR FLOWS INTO THE
METRO FROM THE HIGHER TERRAIN TO THE EAST...HOWEVER SPEEDS SHOULD
STILL REMAIN ON THE LIGHT SIDE AND UNDER 6KTS EVEN IF EAST HEADINGS
ARE REALIZED. MID-LEVEL CIGS AOA 8-10KFT WILL PERSIST INTO THE
EVENING WITH SOME POCKETS OF FEW-SCT PATCHES AROUND 5KFT. ANOTHER
ROUND OF STRONG WEST WINDS PROGGED LATER TOWARDS MIDDAY...WITH GUSTS
IN THE 20KT RANGE POSSIBLE AGAIN.


SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA AND SOUTHWEST ARIZONA INCLUDING KIPL AND
KBLH...
MAIN WEATHER ISSUE IN THE TAFS WILL BE GUSTY WEST WINDS
TONIGHT...AND WE MAY SEE OCCASIONAL GUSTS OVER 30KT THROUGH 05Z OR
SO BEFORE THEY START TO TAPER OFF. FOR THE MOST PART EXPECT VIS
VALUES AOA 6SM FOR THE REST OF TONIGHT AS WINDS SLOWLY TAPER OFF.
MAY SEE A FEW CIGS AROUND 8-10K FEET AT KBLH THROUGH MIDNIGHT WITH A
SHOWER POSSIBLE...BUT THEN CLEARING WILL OCCUR AS THE MAIN TROF
EXITS TO THE EAST. LLWS IS POSSIBLE AT KBLH AFTER MIDNIGHT AS
SURFACE WINDS TAPER OFF BELOW 12KT...BUT 35KT NORTHWEST WINDS SET UP
JUST ABOVE THE SURFACE. HAVE MENTIONED THIS IN THE KBLH TAF. EXPECT
A RETURN TO GUSTY NORTHWEST/NORTH WINDS DOWN THE RIVER SUNDAY WITH
OCCASIONAL GUSTS ABOVE 25KT POSSIBLE. BREEZY WEST WINDS WILL ALSO
OCCUR AT KIPL SUNDAY...UNDER MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES.

AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDED TAFS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...
IN THE WAKE OF THE DEPARTING TROUGH...NEXT WEEK WILL SEE THE ARRIVAL
OF A STRONG UPPER RIDGE OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN CONUS FROM MONDAY
THROUGH MOST OF THE WEEK. TEMPERATURES WILL WARM SUBSTANTIALLY AND
APPROACH THE TRIPLE DIGIT MARK FOR THE LATTER PART OF THE WEEK.
AFTERNOON HUMIDITIES WILL DROP INTO THE LOWER TEENS AND UPPER SINGLE
DIGITS WITH FAIR OVERNIGHT RECOVERIES EXPECTED. WINDS WILL BE GNLY
LIGHT AND SHOULD FOLLOW TYPICAL DIURNAL PATTERNS.

&&

.PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

AZ...NONE.

CA...NONE.

&&

$$

VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/PHOENIX

DISCUSSION...CB
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...KUHLMAN
AVIATION...NOLTE/CB
FIRE WEATHER...NOLTE/LEINS




000
FXUS65 KFGZ 260508
AFDFGZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ
1008 PM MST SAT APR 25 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE ACROSS ARIZONA THROUGH
SUNDAY WITH WINDY AND COLDER CONDITIONS...ALONG WITH RAIN AND
MOUNTAIN SNOW SHOWERS. SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR
AREAS NEAR AND ABOVE 7000 FEET. MUCH WARMER AND DRIER WEATHER WILL
ARRIVE NEXT WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
A PRECIPITATION SHIELD ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER LEVEL LOW CONTINUES
TO ROTATE EAST ACROSS NORTHERN ARIZONA TONIGHT. SNOW LEVELS HAVE
BEEN HOVERING BETWEEN 7000-7500 FEET ALL EVENING. SNOW LEVELS
SHOULD BEGIN TO FALL AFTER MIDNIGHT AS HEIGHTS FALL FURTHER IN
RESPONSE TO THE DEEPENING LOW.

CONTINUE TO THINK THAT SNOW AMOUNTS SHOULD TOTAL BETWEEN ONE AND
FOUR INCHES FOR ELEVATIONS 7000 FEET AND HIGHER...WITH MUCH HIGHER
SNOW AMOUNTS FORECAST FOR MOUNTAIN PEAKS BY SUNDAY MORNING.

UPDATED THE FORECAST TO REMOVE THUNDER FROM THE EVENING WORDING.
OTHERWISE...THE REMAINING FORECAST ELEMENTS ARE IN GOOD SHAPE. THE
FRESHENED UP GRIDDED AND TEXT PRODUCTS HAVE BEEN SENT.

&&

.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION /655 PM MST/...
LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS DEVELOPED OVER BELLEMONT DURING THE PAST
HOUR...WITH SNOW SHOWERS CONTINUING AS OF THIS WRITING. GIVEN THE
RECENT OBSERVATIONS...UPDATED THE FORECAST TO INCLUDE SNOW
SHOWERS THIS EVENING NEAR THE FLAGSTAFF AREA. ALSO BEEFED UP
PROJECTED SNOW TOTALS AS SNOW IS BEGINNING TO ACCUMULATE. FOR NOW
THINK ONE TO FOUR INCHES OF SNOW WILL ACCUMULATE OVER AREAS ABOVE
7000 FEET TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING. MUCH HIGHER AMOUNTS ARE
FORECAST FOR MOUNTAIN PEAKS. THE UPDATED GRIDDED AND TEXT PRODUCTS
HAVE BEEN SENT.

&&

.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION /330 PM MST/...
A STRONG TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE OVER THE WESTERN USA IS MOVING
SOUTHWARD TOWARD ARIZONA THIS AFTERNOON. THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT
IS PUSHING ACROSS SOUTHERN NEVADA THIS AFTERNOON...AND SHOULD
ENTER FAR NORTHWESTERN ARIZONA EARLY THIS EVENING. WINDS AHEAD OF
THE FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO BE STRONG AND GUSTY OUT OF THE
SOUTHWEST. SCATTERED SHOWERS OVER NORTHERN ARIZONA WILL INCREASE
IN NUMBER AND COVERAGE THIS EVENING AS THE TROUGH AND COLD FRONT
PUSH SOUTHEASTWARD TONIGHT. THUNDERSTORMS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE ALONG
AND AHEAD OF THE FRONT. MOST AREAS WILL BEGIN AS RAIN WITH HIGHER
ELEVATIONS ABOVE 6500-7000 FEET SEEING A SWITCH OVER TO SNOW BY
EARLY SUNDAY MORNING WHEN THE COLDEST AIR ARRIVES. ELEVATIONS
GENERALLY 7000 FT TO AROUND 9000 FEET ARE EXPECTED TO SEE ANYWHERE
FROM A TRACE TO 2 INCHES OF SNOWFALL DURING THE EARLY MORNING
HOURS...WITH HIGHER AMOUNTS OVER MOUNTAIN PEAKS. INSTABILITY
SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE MUCH OF THE DAY SUNDAY WITH SNOW LEVELS
GRADUALLY RISING ABOVE 7000 FEET.

WARMER WEATHER QUICKLY DEVELOPS NEXT WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
INTO THE SOUTHWEST. TEMPERATURES WILL WARM CLOSER TO NORMAL BY
MONDAY AND UP TO 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL BY THE MID TO LATTER PART
OF NEXT WEEK. A LOW CHANCE FOR SHOWERS WILL LINGER ALONG THE NEW
MEXICO BORDER THROUGH TUESDAY WITH OTHERWISE DRY WEATHER.

&&

.AVIATION...
FOR THE 06Z PACKAGE...MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS IN LIGHT RAIN AND/OR
SNOW SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE OVER THE HIGHER ELEVATION TERMINAL
AERODROMES (KFLG-KGCN) THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING. OTHERWISE...MAINLY
VFR/MVFR CONDITIONS IN LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS ARE FORECAST FOR
KINW-KPRC-KPGA-KSEZ THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING. PRECIPITATION SHOULD
GRADUALLY END FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST SUNDAY AFTERNOON IN THE
WAKE OF A COLD FRONT. THUNDERSTORMS COULD POSSIBLY DEVELOP NEAR
KINW SUNDAY AFTERNOON. OTHERWISE...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE
FORECAST OVER NORTHERN ARIZONA BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING.

AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR TAF AMENDMENTS.

&&

.FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC.........TM
AVIATION.......TM

FOR NORTHERN ARIZONA WEATHER INFORMATION VISIT
WEATHER.GOV/FLAGSTAFF






000
FXUS65 KFGZ 260508
AFDFGZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ
1008 PM MST SAT APR 25 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE ACROSS ARIZONA THROUGH
SUNDAY WITH WINDY AND COLDER CONDITIONS...ALONG WITH RAIN AND
MOUNTAIN SNOW SHOWERS. SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR
AREAS NEAR AND ABOVE 7000 FEET. MUCH WARMER AND DRIER WEATHER WILL
ARRIVE NEXT WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
A PRECIPITATION SHIELD ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER LEVEL LOW CONTINUES
TO ROTATE EAST ACROSS NORTHERN ARIZONA TONIGHT. SNOW LEVELS HAVE
BEEN HOVERING BETWEEN 7000-7500 FEET ALL EVENING. SNOW LEVELS
SHOULD BEGIN TO FALL AFTER MIDNIGHT AS HEIGHTS FALL FURTHER IN
RESPONSE TO THE DEEPENING LOW.

CONTINUE TO THINK THAT SNOW AMOUNTS SHOULD TOTAL BETWEEN ONE AND
FOUR INCHES FOR ELEVATIONS 7000 FEET AND HIGHER...WITH MUCH HIGHER
SNOW AMOUNTS FORECAST FOR MOUNTAIN PEAKS BY SUNDAY MORNING.

UPDATED THE FORECAST TO REMOVE THUNDER FROM THE EVENING WORDING.
OTHERWISE...THE REMAINING FORECAST ELEMENTS ARE IN GOOD SHAPE. THE
FRESHENED UP GRIDDED AND TEXT PRODUCTS HAVE BEEN SENT.

&&

.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION /655 PM MST/...
LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS DEVELOPED OVER BELLEMONT DURING THE PAST
HOUR...WITH SNOW SHOWERS CONTINUING AS OF THIS WRITING. GIVEN THE
RECENT OBSERVATIONS...UPDATED THE FORECAST TO INCLUDE SNOW
SHOWERS THIS EVENING NEAR THE FLAGSTAFF AREA. ALSO BEEFED UP
PROJECTED SNOW TOTALS AS SNOW IS BEGINNING TO ACCUMULATE. FOR NOW
THINK ONE TO FOUR INCHES OF SNOW WILL ACCUMULATE OVER AREAS ABOVE
7000 FEET TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING. MUCH HIGHER AMOUNTS ARE
FORECAST FOR MOUNTAIN PEAKS. THE UPDATED GRIDDED AND TEXT PRODUCTS
HAVE BEEN SENT.

&&

.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION /330 PM MST/...
A STRONG TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE OVER THE WESTERN USA IS MOVING
SOUTHWARD TOWARD ARIZONA THIS AFTERNOON. THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT
IS PUSHING ACROSS SOUTHERN NEVADA THIS AFTERNOON...AND SHOULD
ENTER FAR NORTHWESTERN ARIZONA EARLY THIS EVENING. WINDS AHEAD OF
THE FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO BE STRONG AND GUSTY OUT OF THE
SOUTHWEST. SCATTERED SHOWERS OVER NORTHERN ARIZONA WILL INCREASE
IN NUMBER AND COVERAGE THIS EVENING AS THE TROUGH AND COLD FRONT
PUSH SOUTHEASTWARD TONIGHT. THUNDERSTORMS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE ALONG
AND AHEAD OF THE FRONT. MOST AREAS WILL BEGIN AS RAIN WITH HIGHER
ELEVATIONS ABOVE 6500-7000 FEET SEEING A SWITCH OVER TO SNOW BY
EARLY SUNDAY MORNING WHEN THE COLDEST AIR ARRIVES. ELEVATIONS
GENERALLY 7000 FT TO AROUND 9000 FEET ARE EXPECTED TO SEE ANYWHERE
FROM A TRACE TO 2 INCHES OF SNOWFALL DURING THE EARLY MORNING
HOURS...WITH HIGHER AMOUNTS OVER MOUNTAIN PEAKS. INSTABILITY
SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE MUCH OF THE DAY SUNDAY WITH SNOW LEVELS
GRADUALLY RISING ABOVE 7000 FEET.

WARMER WEATHER QUICKLY DEVELOPS NEXT WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
INTO THE SOUTHWEST. TEMPERATURES WILL WARM CLOSER TO NORMAL BY
MONDAY AND UP TO 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL BY THE MID TO LATTER PART
OF NEXT WEEK. A LOW CHANCE FOR SHOWERS WILL LINGER ALONG THE NEW
MEXICO BORDER THROUGH TUESDAY WITH OTHERWISE DRY WEATHER.

&&

.AVIATION...
FOR THE 06Z PACKAGE...MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS IN LIGHT RAIN AND/OR
SNOW SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE OVER THE HIGHER ELEVATION TERMINAL
AERODROMES (KFLG-KGCN) THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING. OTHERWISE...MAINLY
VFR/MVFR CONDITIONS IN LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS ARE FORECAST FOR
KINW-KPRC-KPGA-KSEZ THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING. PRECIPITATION SHOULD
GRADUALLY END FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST SUNDAY AFTERNOON IN THE
WAKE OF A COLD FRONT. THUNDERSTORMS COULD POSSIBLY DEVELOP NEAR
KINW SUNDAY AFTERNOON. OTHERWISE...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE
FORECAST OVER NORTHERN ARIZONA BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING.

AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR TAF AMENDMENTS.

&&

.FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC.........TM
AVIATION.......TM

FOR NORTHERN ARIZONA WEATHER INFORMATION VISIT
WEATHER.GOV/FLAGSTAFF





000
FXUS65 KPSR 260400
AFDPSR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PHOENIX AZ
900 PM MST SAT APR 25 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION EARLY TONIGHT
BRINGING GUSTY WINDS AND GOOD CHANCES FOR RAIN. CHANCES FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL INCREASE THIS EVENING AND INTO
TONIGHT...BUT MAINLY ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH CENTRAL
ARIZONA. LINGERING SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED SUNDAY OVER EASTERN
ARIZONA...WITH CLEARING OVER SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA AND SOUTHWEST
ARIZONA. DRIER AND MUCH WARMER WEATHER IS EXPECTED NEXT WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

...POTENT UPPER TROUGH AND FRONTAL PASSAGE ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT
WITH STRONG GUSTY WINDS AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES...

VIGOROUS MID SPRING PACIFIC STORM SYSTEM CONTINUED TO MOVE EASTWARD
ACROSS THE DESERT SOUTHWEST EARLY THIS EVENING...BRINGING SCATTERED
TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AS WELL AS EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS TO THE STATE.
00Z PLOT DATA SHOWED THE LARGEST H5 HEIGHT FALLS ACROSS NWRN ARIZONA
AND FAR SRN NEVADA...WITH 70M FALLS NEAR LAS VEGAS. COLDEST
AIR...NEAR THE CENTER OF THE LOW...WAS WELL TO OUR NORTH AND
NORTHWEST...WITH READINGS DOWN TO MINUS 22C AT 500MB OVER FAR SRN
NEVADA/FAR NWRN AZ. CORRESPONDINGLY THE MOST SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION
HAS STAYED TO OUR NORTH...ALTHOUGH AT 8 PM A CLUSTER OF SOMEWHAT
WEAK STORMS WERE SEEN MOVING THROUGH PORTIONS OF LA PAZ
COUNTY...APPROACHING NORTHWEST MARICOPA COUNTY. IR IMAGERY AT 8 PM
SHOWED GENERALLY CLOUDY SKIES OVER MOST OF ARIZONA WITH PARTIAL
CLEARING TAKING PLACE WEST OF THE LOWER COLORADO RIVER VALLEY.

GUIDANCE REMAINS CONSISTENT IN CALLING FOR THE STORM TO DIVE
SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS ARIZONA TONIGHT...BRINGING SOME OF THE BEST
FORCING TO CENTRAL AZ BY 12Z SUNDAY. A LARGE BULLSEYE OF MID LEVEL Q
CONVERGENCE AND STRONG PVA FOCUS INTO MARICOPA COUNTY AFTER MIDNIGHT
TONIGHT AND THERE APPEARS TO BE SUFFICIENT MOISTURE TO ALLOW FOR
NUMEROUS SHOWERS FORMING OVER THE CENTRAL DESERTS STARTING LATER
THIS EVENING AND PERSISTING WELL PAST MIDNIGHT. DESPITE SOMEWHAT
LIMITED CAPE VALUES...THERE IS ENOUGH FORCING AND A STRONG ENOUGH
UPPER WIND FIELD TO ALLOW ISOLATED STORMS TO FORM TONIGHT...AND ANY
STORM THAT FORMS HAS THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE GUSTY WINDS IN EXCESS
OF 40 MPH AS WELL AS SMALLER HAIL AND BRIEF MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN.
BY SUNRISE SUNDAY...CLEARING WILL TAKING PLACE WEST OF MARICOPA
COUNTY AS STRONGER SUBSIDENCE BEHIND THE PASSING TROF MOVES INTO THE
AREA. STRONG AND GUSTY WEST WINDS CONTINUED OVER PORTIONS OF
IMPERIAL AND EASTERN RIVERSIDE COUNTY EARLY THIS EVENING...WITH
OCCASIONAL GUSTS REACHING TO NEAR OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE WIND ADVISORY
LEVELS. EXPECT THE WINDS TO GRADUALLY TAPER OFF AND FOR THE MOST
PART SHOULD DROP BELOW CRITERIA BY THE TIME THE ADVISORY ENDS AT 9
PM. FORECASTS HAVE BEEN ADJUSTED FOR CURRENT SKY...POP AND WEATHER
TRENDS AND APPEARS TO BE IN GOOD SHAPE FOR NOW.

.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
TODAY THUS FAR HAS BEEN FAIRLY QUIET ACROSS THE AREA EXCEPT FOR SOME
LIGHT SHOWERS PASSING THROUGH RIVERSIDE AND LA PAZ COUNTIES WITH
SOME RECENT DEVELOPMENT JUST TO OUR NORTH IN YAVAPAI COUNTY. THESE
SHOWERS WERE IN RESPONSE TO A WEAKENING SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING INTO
CENTRAL ARIZONA OUT AHEAD OF THE MAIN TROUGH THAT WILL AFFECT THE
AREA LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT. CURRENT WATER VAPOR AND UPPER HEIGHT
ANALYSIS SHOWS A RATHER IMPRESSIVE UPPER TROUGH APPROACHING FROM THE
NORTHWEST WITH THE MAIN SHORTWAVE TROUGH JUST WEST OF LAS VEGAS.
DIFLUENT FLOW ALOFT OVER SOUTHERN NEVADA AND UTAH ALONG WITH STRONG
500MB HEIGHT FALLS CENTERED OVER THE SIERRAS ARE HELPING TO SPARK
OFF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. WINDS AHEAD OF AN ADVANCING
COLD FRONT HAVE BECOME GUSTY ACROSS SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA WITH SOME
GUSTS TO AROUND 35 KNOTS. AS THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH THIS
EVENING...CAN EXPECT SOME WIND GUSTS UP TO 40-45 KNOTS IN SOME
LOCALIZED SPOTS ALONG WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME BLOWING DUST.

THE MAIN SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND COLD FRONT WILL QUICKLY DIVE
SOUTHEASTWARD THROUGH THE REST OF TODAY...REACHING SOUTH-CENTRAL
ARIZONA AROUND 06Z THIS EVENING. STILL EXPECTING SCATTERED TO
WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP AHEAD OF THESE
FEATURES DURING THE EVENING TIME FRAME WITH BEST CHANCES STRETCHING
FROM NORTHERN LA PAZ COUNTY THROUGH MUCH OF MARICOPA COUNTY...INTO
SOUTHERN GILA COUNTY. CONDITIONS REMAIN RATHER MOIST BETWEEN 8-10K
FEET...BUT FURTHER MOISTENING IN THE MID LEVELS WILL OCCUR AS THE
TROUGH AND COLDER AIR MOVES IN FROM THE NORTHWEST. THE MOIST
CONDITIONS...WEAK UPSLOPE LOW LEVEL FLOW...AND STRONG FORECAST MODEL
OMEGA FOR THIS EVENING ACROSS SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA...WILL ALL COME
INTO PLAY TO AID IN SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT. STRONGER
SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO BRING SOME GUSTY
WINDS DOWN TO THE SURFACE...SO SOME STRONGER SUB-SEVERE GUSTS ARE
POSSIBLE.

BY SUNDAY MORNING...THE MAIN SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL BE MOVING INTO
WESTERN NEW MEXICO WITH SUBSIDENCE ALOFT WORKING INTO OUR WESTERN
ZONES. CHANCES FOR LINGERING SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH SUNDAY
MORNING FROM AROUND PHOENIX EASTWARD WITH BEST CHANCES OVER THE
HIGHER TERRAIN OF EAST-CENTRAL ARIZONA. BY MID TO LATE SUNDAY
AFTERNOON...THE DRIER AIR BEHIND THE TROUGH WILL HAVE MIXED OUT THE
LOW LEVELS ENOUGH TO BASICALLY KEEP ANY REMAINING SHOWER CHANCES
OVER HIGHER TERRAIN AREAS. OUR WESTERN ZONES SHOULD CLEAR OUT FAIRLY
QUICKLY ON SUNDAY WITH HIGHS REBOUNDING BACK INTO THE LOW TO MID
80S. ELSEWHERE...TEMPERATURES SHOULD ONLY PEAK OUT IN THE UPPER 70S
ACROSS THE SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA DESERTS.

FOR THE COMING WORK WEEK...A LARGE RIDGE IS FORECAST TO TAKE OVER
WITH DRY CONDITIONS AND WARMING TEMPERATURES. HIGHS BY MONDAY SHOULD
REACH NEAR NORMALS AND ONCE THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE FINALLY TAKES
OVER...TEMPERATURES WILL HEAT UP EVEN MORE WITH FORECAST HIGHS IN
THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 90S FOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY ACROSS THE
DESERTS. THOUGH THERE ARE SOME MODEL DIFFERENCES BEYOND NEXT
THURSDAY...THE GENERAL CONSENSUS IS THAT LARGE SCALE TROUGHING WILL
PUSH THE RIDGE OUT THE REGION ALLOWING FOR SOME MODERATION IN
TEMPERATURES...BUT CONTINUING WITH THE DRY CONDITIONS.

&&

AVIATION...

SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA INCLUDING KPHX...KIWA...AND KSDL... VIGOROUS
UPPER LEVEL PACIFIC STORM SYSTEM CONTINUED TO APPROACH THE CENTRAL
DESERTS EARLY THIS EVENING...BUT AS OF 8 PM MOST CIGS WERE AOA 8K
FEET AND SHOWERS WERE ISOLATED TO SCATTERED. STILL EXPECT CIGS TO
LOWER AND SHOWERS TO BECOMING MORE WIDESPREAD BY 05Z...WITH CIGS
BELOW 5K FEET LIKELY AFTER MIDNIGHT AND THROUGH SUNRISE SUNDAY.
ISOLATED EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS AREA ALSO POSSIBLE...BUT CONFIDENCE
NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO CALL FOR PREDOMINATE THUNDER. HAVE GONE WITH
PREDOMINATE SHOWERS IN THE PHOENIX AREA TAFS AFTER 05Z...WITH VCTS
ADDED TO REFLECT THE THUNDER THREAT. SHOULD A STORM FORM THE SURFACE
WINDS MAY BECOME RATHER STRONG AND GUSTY AND VARIABLE FOR BRIEF
PERIODS BUT WINDS SHOULD FAVOR THE WEST OVERNIGHT TONIGHT. OVERNIGHT
TONIGHT WINDS WILL TAPER OFF BUT MAY BE HARD PRESSED TO SHOW NORMAL
DIURNAL TENDENCIES...AND MAY NOT TURN TO THE EAST. PRECIP SHOULD BE
MOSTLY OVER BY MID MORNING SUNDAY...WITH LINGERING LOWER CLOUDS AND
SOME BROKEN DECKS POSSIBLE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS...WITH CIGS
IN THE 5K TO 7K RANGE. GUSTY WEST/NORTHWEST WINDS SHOULD DEVELOP
AGAIN BY EARLY AFTERNOON.

SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA AND SOUTHWEST ARIZONA INCLUDING KIPL AND
KBLH...MAIN WEATHER ISSUE IN THE TAFS WILL BE GUSTY WEST WINDS
TONIGHT...AND WE MAY SEE OCCASIONAL GUSTS OVER 30KT THROUGH 05Z OR
SO BEFORE THEY START TO TAPER OFF. FOR THE MOST PART EXPECT VIS
VALUES AOA 6SM FOR THE REST OF TONIGHT AS WINDS SLOWLY TAPER OFF.
MAY SEE A FEW CIGS AROUND 8-10K FEET AT KBLH THROUGH MIDNIGHT WITH A
SHOWER POSSIBLE...BUT THEN CLEARING WILL OCCUR AS THE MAIN TROF
EXITS TO THE EAST. LLWS IS POSSIBLE AT KBLH AFTER MIDNIGHT AS
SURFACE WINDS TAPER OFF BELOW 12KT...BUT 35KT NORTHWEST WINDS SET UP
JUST ABOVE THE SURFACE. HAVE MENTIONED THIS IN THE KBLH TAF. EXPECT
A RETURN TO GUSTY NORTHWEST/NORTH WINDS DOWN THE RIVER SUNDAY WITH
OCCASIONAL GUSTS ABOVE 25KT POSSIBLE. BREEZY WEST WINDS WILL ALSO
OCCUR AT KIPL SUNDAY...UNDER MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES.

AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDED TAFS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...
IN THE WAKE OF THE DEPARTING TROUGH...NEXT WEEK WILL SEE THE ARRIVAL
OF A STRONG UPPER RIDGE OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN CONUS FROM MONDAY
THROUGH MOST OF THE WEEK. TEMPERATURES WILL WARM SUBSTANTIALLY AND
APPROACH THE TRIPLE DIGIT MARK FOR THE LATTER PART OF THE WEEK.
AFTERNOON HUMIDITIES WILL DROP INTO THE LOWER TEENS AND UPPER SINGLE
DIGITS WITH FAIR OVERNIGHT RECOVERIES EXPECTED. WINDS WILL BE GNLY
LIGHT AND SHOULD FOLLOW TYPICAL DIURNAL PATTERNS.

&&

.PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

AZ...NONE.

CA...NONE.

&&

$$

VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/PHOENIX

DISCUSSION...CB
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...KUHLMAN
AVIATION...CB
FIRE WEATHER...NOLTE/LEINS




000
FXUS65 KTWC 260400
AFDTWC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ
900 PM MST SAT APR 25 2015

.SYNOPSIS...EXPECT SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS INTO SUNDAY AS A STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
MOVES ACROSS THE FOUR CORNERS REGION. COOLER TEMPERATURES WILL ALSO
OCCUR SUNDAY. A FEW SHOWERS MAY OCCUR ACROSS THE WHITE MOUNTAINS
MONDAY AND TUESDAY. THEREAFTER...DRY CONDITIONS WITH WELL ABOVE
NORMAL DAYTIME TEMPERATURES WILL PREVAIL WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...KEMX WSR-88D DETECTED ISOLATED 35-45 DBZ ECHOES ACROSS
FAR WRN PIMA COUNTY NE OF AJO AT 0355Z. SCATTERED MOSTLY LESS THAN
30 DBZ ECHOES EXTENDED FROM TUCSON NWD ACROSS SERN PINAL/FAR WRN
GRAHAM COUNTIES. CELL MOVEMENT WAS GENERALLY TO THE NORTHEAST AROUND
20 KTS.

A DEEPENING UPPER TROUGH EXTENDED FROM THE SWRN CONUS INTO THE
PACIFIC NW THIS EVENING. A 554 DM LOW PRESSURE CENTER IS PROGGED VIA
THE 26/00Z NAM AND 26/18Z GFS TO BE OVER NERN ARIZONA AROUND
DAYBREAK SUN. HAVE NOTED THAT THE 26/00Z NAM INCREASED POPS FAIRLY
SUBSTANTIALLY FOR THE REST OF TONIGHT...ESPECIALLY FROM TUCSON NWD...
VERSUS PREVIOUS SOLUTIONS. HAVE ALSO NOTED THAT SEVERAL RUC HRRR
SOLUTIONS HAVE GENERALLY TRENDED HIGHER WITH PROGGED LIQUID RAIN
AMOUNTS THRU 12Z-15Z SUNDAY. ACCORDING TO THE 26/02Z HRRR...THE
TIMING FOR THE BEST CHANCE OF MEASURABLE RAINFALL FOR THE
TUCSON METRO AREA WILL OCCUR FROM 05Z-12Z SUNDAY OR SO.

BASED ON RADAR TRENDS AS WELL AS THE MOST RECENT RUC/NAM SOLUTIONS...
HAVE INCREASED POPS FOR THE REST OF TONIGHT...PARTICULARLY FROM
TUCSON NWD ACROSS SERN PINAL/WRN GRAHAM COUNTIES. HAVE ALSO ADDED A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA THE REST OF
TONIGHT. THE BULK OF THE PRECIPITATION SUNDAY SHOULD OCCUR NE OF
TUCSON...OR ACROSS NRN GREENLEE/GRAHAM COUNTIES. HAVE ALSO ADDED A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA SUNDAY
MORNING.

AT THIS TIME...APPEARS THAT SNOW LEVELS BY MIDDAY SUN WILL BE AROUND
7000 FEET ACROSS THE WHITE MOUNTAINS TO AROUND 8000 FEET ACROSS THE
CATALINA/RINCON MOUNTAINS NEAR TUCSON. SEVERAL INCHES OF SNOW IS
POSSIBLE BY SUNDAY EVENING ACROSS THE WHITE MOUNTAINS ABOVE
7000 FEET...WITH 2 TO 4 INCHES OF SNOW ABOVE 7000 FEET ACROSS THE
CATALINA/RINCON MOUNTAINS AS WELL AS THE GALIURO/PINALENO MOUNTAINS
IN GRAHAM COUNTY. GUSTY WEST TO SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL CONTINUE FOR
MOST LOCATIONS THE REST OF TONIGHT FOLLOWED BY GUSTY WEST TO
NORTHWEST WINDS SUNDAY. COOLER TEMPS WILL OCCUR SUN AS THE UPPER LOW
BECOMES QUASI-STATIONARY OVER NRN NEW MEXICO.

PLEASE REFER TO THE ADDITIONAL SECTIONS FOR FURTHER DETAIL.

&&

.AVIATION...VALID THRU 27/06Z.
EXPECT SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS -SHRA ALONG WITH ISOLATED -TSRA THRU
SUNDAY AFTERNOON. THE BEST CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION WILL BE NORTH
OF A SAN SIMON-KTUS-SELLS LINE. MVFR CONDITIONS MAY OCCUR ESPECIALLY
NEAR THE HIGHER TERRAIN NE OF KTUS TO THE WHITE MOUNTAINS. ISOLATED
TO SCATTERED -SHRA SUNDAY EVENING SHOULD BE CONFINED FROM VICINITY
OF KSAD TO THE WHITE MOUNTAINS.

OTHERWISE...CLOUD DECKS INTO MIDDAY SUNDAY WILL GENERALLY BE AT
6-10K FT AGL. GRADUALLY CLEARING SKIES WILL THEN OCCUR FROM WEST-TO-
EAST ACROSS SOUTHEAST ARIZONA SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND SUNDAY EVENING.
SURFACE WIND THE REST OF TONIGHT WILL MAINLY BE WLY/SWLY AT
10-20 KTS WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 25 KTS. SURFACE WIND SUNDAY WILL BE
WLY/NWLY AT 12-25 KTS WITH GUSTS OF 30-40 KTS. THE STRONGEST WIND IS
EXPECTED TO OCCUR NEAR THE NEW MEXICO BORDER. SURFACE WIND WILL
DIMINISH TO AROUND 10 KTS MOST SECTIONS TOWARD THE END OF THE
PERIOD...OR 27/06Z. AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR TAF
AMENDMENTS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...A STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING NORTH OF THE
AREA WILL BRING A GOOD CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND PERHAPS A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS INTO SUNDAY. THE BEST CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION IS
NORTH OF TUCSON. A FEW SHOWERS MAY OCCUR ACROSS THE WHITE MOUNTAINS
MONDAY AND TUESDAY. THEREAFTER...DRY CONDITIONS WITH WELL ABOVE
NORMAL DAYTIME TEMPERATURES WILL PREVAIL WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.
EXPECT GUSTY WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS SUNDAY ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM. GUSTY EAST WINDS SHOULD OCCUR TUESDAY.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...THE SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO EXIT TO THE EAST INTO
THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PLAINS MONDAY BUT THE TAIL END OF THIS
SYSTEM WILL LINGER BACK ACROSS PARTS OF THE DESERT SOUTHWEST. A
SHARP MOISTURE GRADIENT IS ADVERTISED BY THE MODELS TO BE RIGHT
ALONG THE AZ/NM BORDER MONDAY INTO TUESDAY RESULTING IN LINGERING
ISOLATED SHOWERS...MAINLY OVER THE WHITE MOUNTAINS...BUT DRY
ELSEWHERE.

BEHIND THIS SYSTEM RIDGING WILL NOSE IN ACROSS SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA
AND THE GREAT BASIN LATE TUESDAY AND OVER ARIZONA ON WEDNESDAY AND
CONTINUING INTO THURSDAY. BEYOND THURSDAY MODELS SHOW SIGNIFICANT
DISCREPANCIES...SO DID NOT MAKE ANY CHANGES TO THE FORECAST...
ALTHOUGH AT THIS TIME IT LOOKS LIKE A DRY FORECAST IS IN STORE
REGARDLESS OF THE UNCERTAINTY AMONG THE MODELS.

&&

.TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...YOUTUBE...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/TUCSON

FRANCIS
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...MOLLERE



000
FXUS65 KPSR 260400
AFDPSR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PHOENIX AZ
900 PM MST SAT APR 25 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION EARLY TONIGHT
BRINGING GUSTY WINDS AND GOOD CHANCES FOR RAIN. CHANCES FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL INCREASE THIS EVENING AND INTO
TONIGHT...BUT MAINLY ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH CENTRAL
ARIZONA. LINGERING SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED SUNDAY OVER EASTERN
ARIZONA...WITH CLEARING OVER SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA AND SOUTHWEST
ARIZONA. DRIER AND MUCH WARMER WEATHER IS EXPECTED NEXT WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

...POTENT UPPER TROUGH AND FRONTAL PASSAGE ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT
WITH STRONG GUSTY WINDS AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES...

VIGOROUS MID SPRING PACIFIC STORM SYSTEM CONTINUED TO MOVE EASTWARD
ACROSS THE DESERT SOUTHWEST EARLY THIS EVENING...BRINGING SCATTERED
TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AS WELL AS EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS TO THE STATE.
00Z PLOT DATA SHOWED THE LARGEST H5 HEIGHT FALLS ACROSS NWRN ARIZONA
AND FAR SRN NEVADA...WITH 70M FALLS NEAR LAS VEGAS. COLDEST
AIR...NEAR THE CENTER OF THE LOW...WAS WELL TO OUR NORTH AND
NORTHWEST...WITH READINGS DOWN TO MINUS 22C AT 500MB OVER FAR SRN
NEVADA/FAR NWRN AZ. CORRESPONDINGLY THE MOST SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION
HAS STAYED TO OUR NORTH...ALTHOUGH AT 8 PM A CLUSTER OF SOMEWHAT
WEAK STORMS WERE SEEN MOVING THROUGH PORTIONS OF LA PAZ
COUNTY...APPROACHING NORTHWEST MARICOPA COUNTY. IR IMAGERY AT 8 PM
SHOWED GENERALLY CLOUDY SKIES OVER MOST OF ARIZONA WITH PARTIAL
CLEARING TAKING PLACE WEST OF THE LOWER COLORADO RIVER VALLEY.

GUIDANCE REMAINS CONSISTENT IN CALLING FOR THE STORM TO DIVE
SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS ARIZONA TONIGHT...BRINGING SOME OF THE BEST
FORCING TO CENTRAL AZ BY 12Z SUNDAY. A LARGE BULLSEYE OF MID LEVEL Q
CONVERGENCE AND STRONG PVA FOCUS INTO MARICOPA COUNTY AFTER MIDNIGHT
TONIGHT AND THERE APPEARS TO BE SUFFICIENT MOISTURE TO ALLOW FOR
NUMEROUS SHOWERS FORMING OVER THE CENTRAL DESERTS STARTING LATER
THIS EVENING AND PERSISTING WELL PAST MIDNIGHT. DESPITE SOMEWHAT
LIMITED CAPE VALUES...THERE IS ENOUGH FORCING AND A STRONG ENOUGH
UPPER WIND FIELD TO ALLOW ISOLATED STORMS TO FORM TONIGHT...AND ANY
STORM THAT FORMS HAS THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE GUSTY WINDS IN EXCESS
OF 40 MPH AS WELL AS SMALLER HAIL AND BRIEF MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN.
BY SUNRISE SUNDAY...CLEARING WILL TAKING PLACE WEST OF MARICOPA
COUNTY AS STRONGER SUBSIDENCE BEHIND THE PASSING TROF MOVES INTO THE
AREA. STRONG AND GUSTY WEST WINDS CONTINUED OVER PORTIONS OF
IMPERIAL AND EASTERN RIVERSIDE COUNTY EARLY THIS EVENING...WITH
OCCASIONAL GUSTS REACHING TO NEAR OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE WIND ADVISORY
LEVELS. EXPECT THE WINDS TO GRADUALLY TAPER OFF AND FOR THE MOST
PART SHOULD DROP BELOW CRITERIA BY THE TIME THE ADVISORY ENDS AT 9
PM. FORECASTS HAVE BEEN ADJUSTED FOR CURRENT SKY...POP AND WEATHER
TRENDS AND APPEARS TO BE IN GOOD SHAPE FOR NOW.

.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
TODAY THUS FAR HAS BEEN FAIRLY QUIET ACROSS THE AREA EXCEPT FOR SOME
LIGHT SHOWERS PASSING THROUGH RIVERSIDE AND LA PAZ COUNTIES WITH
SOME RECENT DEVELOPMENT JUST TO OUR NORTH IN YAVAPAI COUNTY. THESE
SHOWERS WERE IN RESPONSE TO A WEAKENING SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING INTO
CENTRAL ARIZONA OUT AHEAD OF THE MAIN TROUGH THAT WILL AFFECT THE
AREA LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT. CURRENT WATER VAPOR AND UPPER HEIGHT
ANALYSIS SHOWS A RATHER IMPRESSIVE UPPER TROUGH APPROACHING FROM THE
NORTHWEST WITH THE MAIN SHORTWAVE TROUGH JUST WEST OF LAS VEGAS.
DIFLUENT FLOW ALOFT OVER SOUTHERN NEVADA AND UTAH ALONG WITH STRONG
500MB HEIGHT FALLS CENTERED OVER THE SIERRAS ARE HELPING TO SPARK
OFF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. WINDS AHEAD OF AN ADVANCING
COLD FRONT HAVE BECOME GUSTY ACROSS SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA WITH SOME
GUSTS TO AROUND 35 KNOTS. AS THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH THIS
EVENING...CAN EXPECT SOME WIND GUSTS UP TO 40-45 KNOTS IN SOME
LOCALIZED SPOTS ALONG WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME BLOWING DUST.

THE MAIN SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND COLD FRONT WILL QUICKLY DIVE
SOUTHEASTWARD THROUGH THE REST OF TODAY...REACHING SOUTH-CENTRAL
ARIZONA AROUND 06Z THIS EVENING. STILL EXPECTING SCATTERED TO
WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP AHEAD OF THESE
FEATURES DURING THE EVENING TIME FRAME WITH BEST CHANCES STRETCHING
FROM NORTHERN LA PAZ COUNTY THROUGH MUCH OF MARICOPA COUNTY...INTO
SOUTHERN GILA COUNTY. CONDITIONS REMAIN RATHER MOIST BETWEEN 8-10K
FEET...BUT FURTHER MOISTENING IN THE MID LEVELS WILL OCCUR AS THE
TROUGH AND COLDER AIR MOVES IN FROM THE NORTHWEST. THE MOIST
CONDITIONS...WEAK UPSLOPE LOW LEVEL FLOW...AND STRONG FORECAST MODEL
OMEGA FOR THIS EVENING ACROSS SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA...WILL ALL COME
INTO PLAY TO AID IN SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT. STRONGER
SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO BRING SOME GUSTY
WINDS DOWN TO THE SURFACE...SO SOME STRONGER SUB-SEVERE GUSTS ARE
POSSIBLE.

BY SUNDAY MORNING...THE MAIN SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL BE MOVING INTO
WESTERN NEW MEXICO WITH SUBSIDENCE ALOFT WORKING INTO OUR WESTERN
ZONES. CHANCES FOR LINGERING SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH SUNDAY
MORNING FROM AROUND PHOENIX EASTWARD WITH BEST CHANCES OVER THE
HIGHER TERRAIN OF EAST-CENTRAL ARIZONA. BY MID TO LATE SUNDAY
AFTERNOON...THE DRIER AIR BEHIND THE TROUGH WILL HAVE MIXED OUT THE
LOW LEVELS ENOUGH TO BASICALLY KEEP ANY REMAINING SHOWER CHANCES
OVER HIGHER TERRAIN AREAS. OUR WESTERN ZONES SHOULD CLEAR OUT FAIRLY
QUICKLY ON SUNDAY WITH HIGHS REBOUNDING BACK INTO THE LOW TO MID
80S. ELSEWHERE...TEMPERATURES SHOULD ONLY PEAK OUT IN THE UPPER 70S
ACROSS THE SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA DESERTS.

FOR THE COMING WORK WEEK...A LARGE RIDGE IS FORECAST TO TAKE OVER
WITH DRY CONDITIONS AND WARMING TEMPERATURES. HIGHS BY MONDAY SHOULD
REACH NEAR NORMALS AND ONCE THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE FINALLY TAKES
OVER...TEMPERATURES WILL HEAT UP EVEN MORE WITH FORECAST HIGHS IN
THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 90S FOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY ACROSS THE
DESERTS. THOUGH THERE ARE SOME MODEL DIFFERENCES BEYOND NEXT
THURSDAY...THE GENERAL CONSENSUS IS THAT LARGE SCALE TROUGHING WILL
PUSH THE RIDGE OUT THE REGION ALLOWING FOR SOME MODERATION IN
TEMPERATURES...BUT CONTINUING WITH THE DRY CONDITIONS.

&&

AVIATION...

SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA INCLUDING KPHX...KIWA...AND KSDL... VIGOROUS
UPPER LEVEL PACIFIC STORM SYSTEM CONTINUED TO APPROACH THE CENTRAL
DESERTS EARLY THIS EVENING...BUT AS OF 8 PM MOST CIGS WERE AOA 8K
FEET AND SHOWERS WERE ISOLATED TO SCATTERED. STILL EXPECT CIGS TO
LOWER AND SHOWERS TO BECOMING MORE WIDESPREAD BY 05Z...WITH CIGS
BELOW 5K FEET LIKELY AFTER MIDNIGHT AND THROUGH SUNRISE SUNDAY.
ISOLATED EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS AREA ALSO POSSIBLE...BUT CONFIDENCE
NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO CALL FOR PREDOMINATE THUNDER. HAVE GONE WITH
PREDOMINATE SHOWERS IN THE PHOENIX AREA TAFS AFTER 05Z...WITH VCTS
ADDED TO REFLECT THE THUNDER THREAT. SHOULD A STORM FORM THE SURFACE
WINDS MAY BECOME RATHER STRONG AND GUSTY AND VARIABLE FOR BRIEF
PERIODS BUT WINDS SHOULD FAVOR THE WEST OVERNIGHT TONIGHT. OVERNIGHT
TONIGHT WINDS WILL TAPER OFF BUT MAY BE HARD PRESSED TO SHOW NORMAL
DIURNAL TENDENCIES...AND MAY NOT TURN TO THE EAST. PRECIP SHOULD BE
MOSTLY OVER BY MID MORNING SUNDAY...WITH LINGERING LOWER CLOUDS AND
SOME BROKEN DECKS POSSIBLE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS...WITH CIGS
IN THE 5K TO 7K RANGE. GUSTY WEST/NORTHWEST WINDS SHOULD DEVELOP
AGAIN BY EARLY AFTERNOON.

SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA AND SOUTHWEST ARIZONA INCLUDING KIPL AND
KBLH...MAIN WEATHER ISSUE IN THE TAFS WILL BE GUSTY WEST WINDS
TONIGHT...AND WE MAY SEE OCCASIONAL GUSTS OVER 30KT THROUGH 05Z OR
SO BEFORE THEY START TO TAPER OFF. FOR THE MOST PART EXPECT VIS
VALUES AOA 6SM FOR THE REST OF TONIGHT AS WINDS SLOWLY TAPER OFF.
MAY SEE A FEW CIGS AROUND 8-10K FEET AT KBLH THROUGH MIDNIGHT WITH A
SHOWER POSSIBLE...BUT THEN CLEARING WILL OCCUR AS THE MAIN TROF
EXITS TO THE EAST. LLWS IS POSSIBLE AT KBLH AFTER MIDNIGHT AS
SURFACE WINDS TAPER OFF BELOW 12KT...BUT 35KT NORTHWEST WINDS SET UP
JUST ABOVE THE SURFACE. HAVE MENTIONED THIS IN THE KBLH TAF. EXPECT
A RETURN TO GUSTY NORTHWEST/NORTH WINDS DOWN THE RIVER SUNDAY WITH
OCCASIONAL GUSTS ABOVE 25KT POSSIBLE. BREEZY WEST WINDS WILL ALSO
OCCUR AT KIPL SUNDAY...UNDER MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES.

AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDED TAFS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...
IN THE WAKE OF THE DEPARTING TROUGH...NEXT WEEK WILL SEE THE ARRIVAL
OF A STRONG UPPER RIDGE OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN CONUS FROM MONDAY
THROUGH MOST OF THE WEEK. TEMPERATURES WILL WARM SUBSTANTIALLY AND
APPROACH THE TRIPLE DIGIT MARK FOR THE LATTER PART OF THE WEEK.
AFTERNOON HUMIDITIES WILL DROP INTO THE LOWER TEENS AND UPPER SINGLE
DIGITS WITH FAIR OVERNIGHT RECOVERIES EXPECTED. WINDS WILL BE GNLY
LIGHT AND SHOULD FOLLOW TYPICAL DIURNAL PATTERNS.

&&

.PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

AZ...NONE.

CA...NONE.

&&

$$

VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/PHOENIX

DISCUSSION...CB
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...KUHLMAN
AVIATION...CB
FIRE WEATHER...NOLTE/LEINS




000
FXUS65 KTWC 260400
AFDTWC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ
900 PM MST SAT APR 25 2015

.SYNOPSIS...EXPECT SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS INTO SUNDAY AS A STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
MOVES ACROSS THE FOUR CORNERS REGION. COOLER TEMPERATURES WILL ALSO
OCCUR SUNDAY. A FEW SHOWERS MAY OCCUR ACROSS THE WHITE MOUNTAINS
MONDAY AND TUESDAY. THEREAFTER...DRY CONDITIONS WITH WELL ABOVE
NORMAL DAYTIME TEMPERATURES WILL PREVAIL WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...KEMX WSR-88D DETECTED ISOLATED 35-45 DBZ ECHOES ACROSS
FAR WRN PIMA COUNTY NE OF AJO AT 0355Z. SCATTERED MOSTLY LESS THAN
30 DBZ ECHOES EXTENDED FROM TUCSON NWD ACROSS SERN PINAL/FAR WRN
GRAHAM COUNTIES. CELL MOVEMENT WAS GENERALLY TO THE NORTHEAST AROUND
20 KTS.

A DEEPENING UPPER TROUGH EXTENDED FROM THE SWRN CONUS INTO THE
PACIFIC NW THIS EVENING. A 554 DM LOW PRESSURE CENTER IS PROGGED VIA
THE 26/00Z NAM AND 26/18Z GFS TO BE OVER NERN ARIZONA AROUND
DAYBREAK SUN. HAVE NOTED THAT THE 26/00Z NAM INCREASED POPS FAIRLY
SUBSTANTIALLY FOR THE REST OF TONIGHT...ESPECIALLY FROM TUCSON NWD...
VERSUS PREVIOUS SOLUTIONS. HAVE ALSO NOTED THAT SEVERAL RUC HRRR
SOLUTIONS HAVE GENERALLY TRENDED HIGHER WITH PROGGED LIQUID RAIN
AMOUNTS THRU 12Z-15Z SUNDAY. ACCORDING TO THE 26/02Z HRRR...THE
TIMING FOR THE BEST CHANCE OF MEASURABLE RAINFALL FOR THE
TUCSON METRO AREA WILL OCCUR FROM 05Z-12Z SUNDAY OR SO.

BASED ON RADAR TRENDS AS WELL AS THE MOST RECENT RUC/NAM SOLUTIONS...
HAVE INCREASED POPS FOR THE REST OF TONIGHT...PARTICULARLY FROM
TUCSON NWD ACROSS SERN PINAL/WRN GRAHAM COUNTIES. HAVE ALSO ADDED A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA THE REST OF
TONIGHT. THE BULK OF THE PRECIPITATION SUNDAY SHOULD OCCUR NE OF
TUCSON...OR ACROSS NRN GREENLEE/GRAHAM COUNTIES. HAVE ALSO ADDED A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA SUNDAY
MORNING.

AT THIS TIME...APPEARS THAT SNOW LEVELS BY MIDDAY SUN WILL BE AROUND
7000 FEET ACROSS THE WHITE MOUNTAINS TO AROUND 8000 FEET ACROSS THE
CATALINA/RINCON MOUNTAINS NEAR TUCSON. SEVERAL INCHES OF SNOW IS
POSSIBLE BY SUNDAY EVENING ACROSS THE WHITE MOUNTAINS ABOVE
7000 FEET...WITH 2 TO 4 INCHES OF SNOW ABOVE 7000 FEET ACROSS THE
CATALINA/RINCON MOUNTAINS AS WELL AS THE GALIURO/PINALENO MOUNTAINS
IN GRAHAM COUNTY. GUSTY WEST TO SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL CONTINUE FOR
MOST LOCATIONS THE REST OF TONIGHT FOLLOWED BY GUSTY WEST TO
NORTHWEST WINDS SUNDAY. COOLER TEMPS WILL OCCUR SUN AS THE UPPER LOW
BECOMES QUASI-STATIONARY OVER NRN NEW MEXICO.

PLEASE REFER TO THE ADDITIONAL SECTIONS FOR FURTHER DETAIL.

&&

.AVIATION...VALID THRU 27/06Z.
EXPECT SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS -SHRA ALONG WITH ISOLATED -TSRA THRU
SUNDAY AFTERNOON. THE BEST CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION WILL BE NORTH
OF A SAN SIMON-KTUS-SELLS LINE. MVFR CONDITIONS MAY OCCUR ESPECIALLY
NEAR THE HIGHER TERRAIN NE OF KTUS TO THE WHITE MOUNTAINS. ISOLATED
TO SCATTERED -SHRA SUNDAY EVENING SHOULD BE CONFINED FROM VICINITY
OF KSAD TO THE WHITE MOUNTAINS.

OTHERWISE...CLOUD DECKS INTO MIDDAY SUNDAY WILL GENERALLY BE AT
6-10K FT AGL. GRADUALLY CLEARING SKIES WILL THEN OCCUR FROM WEST-TO-
EAST ACROSS SOUTHEAST ARIZONA SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND SUNDAY EVENING.
SURFACE WIND THE REST OF TONIGHT WILL MAINLY BE WLY/SWLY AT
10-20 KTS WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 25 KTS. SURFACE WIND SUNDAY WILL BE
WLY/NWLY AT 12-25 KTS WITH GUSTS OF 30-40 KTS. THE STRONGEST WIND IS
EXPECTED TO OCCUR NEAR THE NEW MEXICO BORDER. SURFACE WIND WILL
DIMINISH TO AROUND 10 KTS MOST SECTIONS TOWARD THE END OF THE
PERIOD...OR 27/06Z. AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR TAF
AMENDMENTS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...A STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING NORTH OF THE
AREA WILL BRING A GOOD CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND PERHAPS A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS INTO SUNDAY. THE BEST CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION IS
NORTH OF TUCSON. A FEW SHOWERS MAY OCCUR ACROSS THE WHITE MOUNTAINS
MONDAY AND TUESDAY. THEREAFTER...DRY CONDITIONS WITH WELL ABOVE
NORMAL DAYTIME TEMPERATURES WILL PREVAIL WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.
EXPECT GUSTY WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS SUNDAY ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM. GUSTY EAST WINDS SHOULD OCCUR TUESDAY.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...THE SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO EXIT TO THE EAST INTO
THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PLAINS MONDAY BUT THE TAIL END OF THIS
SYSTEM WILL LINGER BACK ACROSS PARTS OF THE DESERT SOUTHWEST. A
SHARP MOISTURE GRADIENT IS ADVERTISED BY THE MODELS TO BE RIGHT
ALONG THE AZ/NM BORDER MONDAY INTO TUESDAY RESULTING IN LINGERING
ISOLATED SHOWERS...MAINLY OVER THE WHITE MOUNTAINS...BUT DRY
ELSEWHERE.

BEHIND THIS SYSTEM RIDGING WILL NOSE IN ACROSS SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA
AND THE GREAT BASIN LATE TUESDAY AND OVER ARIZONA ON WEDNESDAY AND
CONTINUING INTO THURSDAY. BEYOND THURSDAY MODELS SHOW SIGNIFICANT
DISCREPANCIES...SO DID NOT MAKE ANY CHANGES TO THE FORECAST...
ALTHOUGH AT THIS TIME IT LOOKS LIKE A DRY FORECAST IS IN STORE
REGARDLESS OF THE UNCERTAINTY AMONG THE MODELS.

&&

.TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...YOUTUBE...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/TUCSON

FRANCIS
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...MOLLERE



000
FXUS65 KPSR 260400
AFDPSR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PHOENIX AZ
900 PM MST SAT APR 25 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION EARLY TONIGHT
BRINGING GUSTY WINDS AND GOOD CHANCES FOR RAIN. CHANCES FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL INCREASE THIS EVENING AND INTO
TONIGHT...BUT MAINLY ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH CENTRAL
ARIZONA. LINGERING SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED SUNDAY OVER EASTERN
ARIZONA...WITH CLEARING OVER SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA AND SOUTHWEST
ARIZONA. DRIER AND MUCH WARMER WEATHER IS EXPECTED NEXT WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

...POTENT UPPER TROUGH AND FRONTAL PASSAGE ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT
WITH STRONG GUSTY WINDS AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES...

VIGOROUS MID SPRING PACIFIC STORM SYSTEM CONTINUED TO MOVE EASTWARD
ACROSS THE DESERT SOUTHWEST EARLY THIS EVENING...BRINGING SCATTERED
TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AS WELL AS EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS TO THE STATE.
00Z PLOT DATA SHOWED THE LARGEST H5 HEIGHT FALLS ACROSS NWRN ARIZONA
AND FAR SRN NEVADA...WITH 70M FALLS NEAR LAS VEGAS. COLDEST
AIR...NEAR THE CENTER OF THE LOW...WAS WELL TO OUR NORTH AND
NORTHWEST...WITH READINGS DOWN TO MINUS 22C AT 500MB OVER FAR SRN
NEVADA/FAR NWRN AZ. CORRESPONDINGLY THE MOST SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION
HAS STAYED TO OUR NORTH...ALTHOUGH AT 8 PM A CLUSTER OF SOMEWHAT
WEAK STORMS WERE SEEN MOVING THROUGH PORTIONS OF LA PAZ
COUNTY...APPROACHING NORTHWEST MARICOPA COUNTY. IR IMAGERY AT 8 PM
SHOWED GENERALLY CLOUDY SKIES OVER MOST OF ARIZONA WITH PARTIAL
CLEARING TAKING PLACE WEST OF THE LOWER COLORADO RIVER VALLEY.

GUIDANCE REMAINS CONSISTENT IN CALLING FOR THE STORM TO DIVE
SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS ARIZONA TONIGHT...BRINGING SOME OF THE BEST
FORCING TO CENTRAL AZ BY 12Z SUNDAY. A LARGE BULLSEYE OF MID LEVEL Q
CONVERGENCE AND STRONG PVA FOCUS INTO MARICOPA COUNTY AFTER MIDNIGHT
TONIGHT AND THERE APPEARS TO BE SUFFICIENT MOISTURE TO ALLOW FOR
NUMEROUS SHOWERS FORMING OVER THE CENTRAL DESERTS STARTING LATER
THIS EVENING AND PERSISTING WELL PAST MIDNIGHT. DESPITE SOMEWHAT
LIMITED CAPE VALUES...THERE IS ENOUGH FORCING AND A STRONG ENOUGH
UPPER WIND FIELD TO ALLOW ISOLATED STORMS TO FORM TONIGHT...AND ANY
STORM THAT FORMS HAS THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE GUSTY WINDS IN EXCESS
OF 40 MPH AS WELL AS SMALLER HAIL AND BRIEF MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN.
BY SUNRISE SUNDAY...CLEARING WILL TAKING PLACE WEST OF MARICOPA
COUNTY AS STRONGER SUBSIDENCE BEHIND THE PASSING TROF MOVES INTO THE
AREA. STRONG AND GUSTY WEST WINDS CONTINUED OVER PORTIONS OF
IMPERIAL AND EASTERN RIVERSIDE COUNTY EARLY THIS EVENING...WITH
OCCASIONAL GUSTS REACHING TO NEAR OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE WIND ADVISORY
LEVELS. EXPECT THE WINDS TO GRADUALLY TAPER OFF AND FOR THE MOST
PART SHOULD DROP BELOW CRITERIA BY THE TIME THE ADVISORY ENDS AT 9
PM. FORECASTS HAVE BEEN ADJUSTED FOR CURRENT SKY...POP AND WEATHER
TRENDS AND APPEARS TO BE IN GOOD SHAPE FOR NOW.

.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
TODAY THUS FAR HAS BEEN FAIRLY QUIET ACROSS THE AREA EXCEPT FOR SOME
LIGHT SHOWERS PASSING THROUGH RIVERSIDE AND LA PAZ COUNTIES WITH
SOME RECENT DEVELOPMENT JUST TO OUR NORTH IN YAVAPAI COUNTY. THESE
SHOWERS WERE IN RESPONSE TO A WEAKENING SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING INTO
CENTRAL ARIZONA OUT AHEAD OF THE MAIN TROUGH THAT WILL AFFECT THE
AREA LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT. CURRENT WATER VAPOR AND UPPER HEIGHT
ANALYSIS SHOWS A RATHER IMPRESSIVE UPPER TROUGH APPROACHING FROM THE
NORTHWEST WITH THE MAIN SHORTWAVE TROUGH JUST WEST OF LAS VEGAS.
DIFLUENT FLOW ALOFT OVER SOUTHERN NEVADA AND UTAH ALONG WITH STRONG
500MB HEIGHT FALLS CENTERED OVER THE SIERRAS ARE HELPING TO SPARK
OFF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. WINDS AHEAD OF AN ADVANCING
COLD FRONT HAVE BECOME GUSTY ACROSS SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA WITH SOME
GUSTS TO AROUND 35 KNOTS. AS THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH THIS
EVENING...CAN EXPECT SOME WIND GUSTS UP TO 40-45 KNOTS IN SOME
LOCALIZED SPOTS ALONG WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME BLOWING DUST.

THE MAIN SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND COLD FRONT WILL QUICKLY DIVE
SOUTHEASTWARD THROUGH THE REST OF TODAY...REACHING SOUTH-CENTRAL
ARIZONA AROUND 06Z THIS EVENING. STILL EXPECTING SCATTERED TO
WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP AHEAD OF THESE
FEATURES DURING THE EVENING TIME FRAME WITH BEST CHANCES STRETCHING
FROM NORTHERN LA PAZ COUNTY THROUGH MUCH OF MARICOPA COUNTY...INTO
SOUTHERN GILA COUNTY. CONDITIONS REMAIN RATHER MOIST BETWEEN 8-10K
FEET...BUT FURTHER MOISTENING IN THE MID LEVELS WILL OCCUR AS THE
TROUGH AND COLDER AIR MOVES IN FROM THE NORTHWEST. THE MOIST
CONDITIONS...WEAK UPSLOPE LOW LEVEL FLOW...AND STRONG FORECAST MODEL
OMEGA FOR THIS EVENING ACROSS SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA...WILL ALL COME
INTO PLAY TO AID IN SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT. STRONGER
SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO BRING SOME GUSTY
WINDS DOWN TO THE SURFACE...SO SOME STRONGER SUB-SEVERE GUSTS ARE
POSSIBLE.

BY SUNDAY MORNING...THE MAIN SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL BE MOVING INTO
WESTERN NEW MEXICO WITH SUBSIDENCE ALOFT WORKING INTO OUR WESTERN
ZONES. CHANCES FOR LINGERING SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH SUNDAY
MORNING FROM AROUND PHOENIX EASTWARD WITH BEST CHANCES OVER THE
HIGHER TERRAIN OF EAST-CENTRAL ARIZONA. BY MID TO LATE SUNDAY
AFTERNOON...THE DRIER AIR BEHIND THE TROUGH WILL HAVE MIXED OUT THE
LOW LEVELS ENOUGH TO BASICALLY KEEP ANY REMAINING SHOWER CHANCES
OVER HIGHER TERRAIN AREAS. OUR WESTERN ZONES SHOULD CLEAR OUT FAIRLY
QUICKLY ON SUNDAY WITH HIGHS REBOUNDING BACK INTO THE LOW TO MID
80S. ELSEWHERE...TEMPERATURES SHOULD ONLY PEAK OUT IN THE UPPER 70S
ACROSS THE SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA DESERTS.

FOR THE COMING WORK WEEK...A LARGE RIDGE IS FORECAST TO TAKE OVER
WITH DRY CONDITIONS AND WARMING TEMPERATURES. HIGHS BY MONDAY SHOULD
REACH NEAR NORMALS AND ONCE THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE FINALLY TAKES
OVER...TEMPERATURES WILL HEAT UP EVEN MORE WITH FORECAST HIGHS IN
THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 90S FOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY ACROSS THE
DESERTS. THOUGH THERE ARE SOME MODEL DIFFERENCES BEYOND NEXT
THURSDAY...THE GENERAL CONSENSUS IS THAT LARGE SCALE TROUGHING WILL
PUSH THE RIDGE OUT THE REGION ALLOWING FOR SOME MODERATION IN
TEMPERATURES...BUT CONTINUING WITH THE DRY CONDITIONS.

&&

AVIATION...

SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA INCLUDING KPHX...KIWA...AND KSDL... VIGOROUS
UPPER LEVEL PACIFIC STORM SYSTEM CONTINUED TO APPROACH THE CENTRAL
DESERTS EARLY THIS EVENING...BUT AS OF 8 PM MOST CIGS WERE AOA 8K
FEET AND SHOWERS WERE ISOLATED TO SCATTERED. STILL EXPECT CIGS TO
LOWER AND SHOWERS TO BECOMING MORE WIDESPREAD BY 05Z...WITH CIGS
BELOW 5K FEET LIKELY AFTER MIDNIGHT AND THROUGH SUNRISE SUNDAY.
ISOLATED EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS AREA ALSO POSSIBLE...BUT CONFIDENCE
NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO CALL FOR PREDOMINATE THUNDER. HAVE GONE WITH
PREDOMINATE SHOWERS IN THE PHOENIX AREA TAFS AFTER 05Z...WITH VCTS
ADDED TO REFLECT THE THUNDER THREAT. SHOULD A STORM FORM THE SURFACE
WINDS MAY BECOME RATHER STRONG AND GUSTY AND VARIABLE FOR BRIEF
PERIODS BUT WINDS SHOULD FAVOR THE WEST OVERNIGHT TONIGHT. OVERNIGHT
TONIGHT WINDS WILL TAPER OFF BUT MAY BE HARD PRESSED TO SHOW NORMAL
DIURNAL TENDENCIES...AND MAY NOT TURN TO THE EAST. PRECIP SHOULD BE
MOSTLY OVER BY MID MORNING SUNDAY...WITH LINGERING LOWER CLOUDS AND
SOME BROKEN DECKS POSSIBLE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS...WITH CIGS
IN THE 5K TO 7K RANGE. GUSTY WEST/NORTHWEST WINDS SHOULD DEVELOP
AGAIN BY EARLY AFTERNOON.

SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA AND SOUTHWEST ARIZONA INCLUDING KIPL AND
KBLH...MAIN WEATHER ISSUE IN THE TAFS WILL BE GUSTY WEST WINDS
TONIGHT...AND WE MAY SEE OCCASIONAL GUSTS OVER 30KT THROUGH 05Z OR
SO BEFORE THEY START TO TAPER OFF. FOR THE MOST PART EXPECT VIS
VALUES AOA 6SM FOR THE REST OF TONIGHT AS WINDS SLOWLY TAPER OFF.
MAY SEE A FEW CIGS AROUND 8-10K FEET AT KBLH THROUGH MIDNIGHT WITH A
SHOWER POSSIBLE...BUT THEN CLEARING WILL OCCUR AS THE MAIN TROF
EXITS TO THE EAST. LLWS IS POSSIBLE AT KBLH AFTER MIDNIGHT AS
SURFACE WINDS TAPER OFF BELOW 12KT...BUT 35KT NORTHWEST WINDS SET UP
JUST ABOVE THE SURFACE. HAVE MENTIONED THIS IN THE KBLH TAF. EXPECT
A RETURN TO GUSTY NORTHWEST/NORTH WINDS DOWN THE RIVER SUNDAY WITH
OCCASIONAL GUSTS ABOVE 25KT POSSIBLE. BREEZY WEST WINDS WILL ALSO
OCCUR AT KIPL SUNDAY...UNDER MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES.

AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDED TAFS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...
IN THE WAKE OF THE DEPARTING TROUGH...NEXT WEEK WILL SEE THE ARRIVAL
OF A STRONG UPPER RIDGE OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN CONUS FROM MONDAY
THROUGH MOST OF THE WEEK. TEMPERATURES WILL WARM SUBSTANTIALLY AND
APPROACH THE TRIPLE DIGIT MARK FOR THE LATTER PART OF THE WEEK.
AFTERNOON HUMIDITIES WILL DROP INTO THE LOWER TEENS AND UPPER SINGLE
DIGITS WITH FAIR OVERNIGHT RECOVERIES EXPECTED. WINDS WILL BE GNLY
LIGHT AND SHOULD FOLLOW TYPICAL DIURNAL PATTERNS.

&&

.PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

AZ...NONE.

CA...NONE.

&&

$$

VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/PHOENIX

DISCUSSION...CB
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...KUHLMAN
AVIATION...CB
FIRE WEATHER...NOLTE/LEINS



000
FXUS65 KPSR 260400
AFDPSR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PHOENIX AZ
900 PM MST SAT APR 25 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION EARLY TONIGHT
BRINGING GUSTY WINDS AND GOOD CHANCES FOR RAIN. CHANCES FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL INCREASE THIS EVENING AND INTO
TONIGHT...BUT MAINLY ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH CENTRAL
ARIZONA. LINGERING SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED SUNDAY OVER EASTERN
ARIZONA...WITH CLEARING OVER SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA AND SOUTHWEST
ARIZONA. DRIER AND MUCH WARMER WEATHER IS EXPECTED NEXT WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

...POTENT UPPER TROUGH AND FRONTAL PASSAGE ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT
WITH STRONG GUSTY WINDS AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES...

VIGOROUS MID SPRING PACIFIC STORM SYSTEM CONTINUED TO MOVE EASTWARD
ACROSS THE DESERT SOUTHWEST EARLY THIS EVENING...BRINGING SCATTERED
TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AS WELL AS EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS TO THE STATE.
00Z PLOT DATA SHOWED THE LARGEST H5 HEIGHT FALLS ACROSS NWRN ARIZONA
AND FAR SRN NEVADA...WITH 70M FALLS NEAR LAS VEGAS. COLDEST
AIR...NEAR THE CENTER OF THE LOW...WAS WELL TO OUR NORTH AND
NORTHWEST...WITH READINGS DOWN TO MINUS 22C AT 500MB OVER FAR SRN
NEVADA/FAR NWRN AZ. CORRESPONDINGLY THE MOST SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION
HAS STAYED TO OUR NORTH...ALTHOUGH AT 8 PM A CLUSTER OF SOMEWHAT
WEAK STORMS WERE SEEN MOVING THROUGH PORTIONS OF LA PAZ
COUNTY...APPROACHING NORTHWEST MARICOPA COUNTY. IR IMAGERY AT 8 PM
SHOWED GENERALLY CLOUDY SKIES OVER MOST OF ARIZONA WITH PARTIAL
CLEARING TAKING PLACE WEST OF THE LOWER COLORADO RIVER VALLEY.

GUIDANCE REMAINS CONSISTENT IN CALLING FOR THE STORM TO DIVE
SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS ARIZONA TONIGHT...BRINGING SOME OF THE BEST
FORCING TO CENTRAL AZ BY 12Z SUNDAY. A LARGE BULLSEYE OF MID LEVEL Q
CONVERGENCE AND STRONG PVA FOCUS INTO MARICOPA COUNTY AFTER MIDNIGHT
TONIGHT AND THERE APPEARS TO BE SUFFICIENT MOISTURE TO ALLOW FOR
NUMEROUS SHOWERS FORMING OVER THE CENTRAL DESERTS STARTING LATER
THIS EVENING AND PERSISTING WELL PAST MIDNIGHT. DESPITE SOMEWHAT
LIMITED CAPE VALUES...THERE IS ENOUGH FORCING AND A STRONG ENOUGH
UPPER WIND FIELD TO ALLOW ISOLATED STORMS TO FORM TONIGHT...AND ANY
STORM THAT FORMS HAS THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE GUSTY WINDS IN EXCESS
OF 40 MPH AS WELL AS SMALLER HAIL AND BRIEF MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN.
BY SUNRISE SUNDAY...CLEARING WILL TAKING PLACE WEST OF MARICOPA
COUNTY AS STRONGER SUBSIDENCE BEHIND THE PASSING TROF MOVES INTO THE
AREA. STRONG AND GUSTY WEST WINDS CONTINUED OVER PORTIONS OF
IMPERIAL AND EASTERN RIVERSIDE COUNTY EARLY THIS EVENING...WITH
OCCASIONAL GUSTS REACHING TO NEAR OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE WIND ADVISORY
LEVELS. EXPECT THE WINDS TO GRADUALLY TAPER OFF AND FOR THE MOST
PART SHOULD DROP BELOW CRITERIA BY THE TIME THE ADVISORY ENDS AT 9
PM. FORECASTS HAVE BEEN ADJUSTED FOR CURRENT SKY...POP AND WEATHER
TRENDS AND APPEARS TO BE IN GOOD SHAPE FOR NOW.

.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
TODAY THUS FAR HAS BEEN FAIRLY QUIET ACROSS THE AREA EXCEPT FOR SOME
LIGHT SHOWERS PASSING THROUGH RIVERSIDE AND LA PAZ COUNTIES WITH
SOME RECENT DEVELOPMENT JUST TO OUR NORTH IN YAVAPAI COUNTY. THESE
SHOWERS WERE IN RESPONSE TO A WEAKENING SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING INTO
CENTRAL ARIZONA OUT AHEAD OF THE MAIN TROUGH THAT WILL AFFECT THE
AREA LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT. CURRENT WATER VAPOR AND UPPER HEIGHT
ANALYSIS SHOWS A RATHER IMPRESSIVE UPPER TROUGH APPROACHING FROM THE
NORTHWEST WITH THE MAIN SHORTWAVE TROUGH JUST WEST OF LAS VEGAS.
DIFLUENT FLOW ALOFT OVER SOUTHERN NEVADA AND UTAH ALONG WITH STRONG
500MB HEIGHT FALLS CENTERED OVER THE SIERRAS ARE HELPING TO SPARK
OFF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. WINDS AHEAD OF AN ADVANCING
COLD FRONT HAVE BECOME GUSTY ACROSS SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA WITH SOME
GUSTS TO AROUND 35 KNOTS. AS THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH THIS
EVENING...CAN EXPECT SOME WIND GUSTS UP TO 40-45 KNOTS IN SOME
LOCALIZED SPOTS ALONG WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME BLOWING DUST.

THE MAIN SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND COLD FRONT WILL QUICKLY DIVE
SOUTHEASTWARD THROUGH THE REST OF TODAY...REACHING SOUTH-CENTRAL
ARIZONA AROUND 06Z THIS EVENING. STILL EXPECTING SCATTERED TO
WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP AHEAD OF THESE
FEATURES DURING THE EVENING TIME FRAME WITH BEST CHANCES STRETCHING
FROM NORTHERN LA PAZ COUNTY THROUGH MUCH OF MARICOPA COUNTY...INTO
SOUTHERN GILA COUNTY. CONDITIONS REMAIN RATHER MOIST BETWEEN 8-10K
FEET...BUT FURTHER MOISTENING IN THE MID LEVELS WILL OCCUR AS THE
TROUGH AND COLDER AIR MOVES IN FROM THE NORTHWEST. THE MOIST
CONDITIONS...WEAK UPSLOPE LOW LEVEL FLOW...AND STRONG FORECAST MODEL
OMEGA FOR THIS EVENING ACROSS SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA...WILL ALL COME
INTO PLAY TO AID IN SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT. STRONGER
SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO BRING SOME GUSTY
WINDS DOWN TO THE SURFACE...SO SOME STRONGER SUB-SEVERE GUSTS ARE
POSSIBLE.

BY SUNDAY MORNING...THE MAIN SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL BE MOVING INTO
WESTERN NEW MEXICO WITH SUBSIDENCE ALOFT WORKING INTO OUR WESTERN
ZONES. CHANCES FOR LINGERING SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH SUNDAY
MORNING FROM AROUND PHOENIX EASTWARD WITH BEST CHANCES OVER THE
HIGHER TERRAIN OF EAST-CENTRAL ARIZONA. BY MID TO LATE SUNDAY
AFTERNOON...THE DRIER AIR BEHIND THE TROUGH WILL HAVE MIXED OUT THE
LOW LEVELS ENOUGH TO BASICALLY KEEP ANY REMAINING SHOWER CHANCES
OVER HIGHER TERRAIN AREAS. OUR WESTERN ZONES SHOULD CLEAR OUT FAIRLY
QUICKLY ON SUNDAY WITH HIGHS REBOUNDING BACK INTO THE LOW TO MID
80S. ELSEWHERE...TEMPERATURES SHOULD ONLY PEAK OUT IN THE UPPER 70S
ACROSS THE SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA DESERTS.

FOR THE COMING WORK WEEK...A LARGE RIDGE IS FORECAST TO TAKE OVER
WITH DRY CONDITIONS AND WARMING TEMPERATURES. HIGHS BY MONDAY SHOULD
REACH NEAR NORMALS AND ONCE THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE FINALLY TAKES
OVER...TEMPERATURES WILL HEAT UP EVEN MORE WITH FORECAST HIGHS IN
THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 90S FOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY ACROSS THE
DESERTS. THOUGH THERE ARE SOME MODEL DIFFERENCES BEYOND NEXT
THURSDAY...THE GENERAL CONSENSUS IS THAT LARGE SCALE TROUGHING WILL
PUSH THE RIDGE OUT THE REGION ALLOWING FOR SOME MODERATION IN
TEMPERATURES...BUT CONTINUING WITH THE DRY CONDITIONS.

&&

AVIATION...

SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA INCLUDING KPHX...KIWA...AND KSDL... VIGOROUS
UPPER LEVEL PACIFIC STORM SYSTEM CONTINUED TO APPROACH THE CENTRAL
DESERTS EARLY THIS EVENING...BUT AS OF 8 PM MOST CIGS WERE AOA 8K
FEET AND SHOWERS WERE ISOLATED TO SCATTERED. STILL EXPECT CIGS TO
LOWER AND SHOWERS TO BECOMING MORE WIDESPREAD BY 05Z...WITH CIGS
BELOW 5K FEET LIKELY AFTER MIDNIGHT AND THROUGH SUNRISE SUNDAY.
ISOLATED EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS AREA ALSO POSSIBLE...BUT CONFIDENCE
NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO CALL FOR PREDOMINATE THUNDER. HAVE GONE WITH
PREDOMINATE SHOWERS IN THE PHOENIX AREA TAFS AFTER 05Z...WITH VCTS
ADDED TO REFLECT THE THUNDER THREAT. SHOULD A STORM FORM THE SURFACE
WINDS MAY BECOME RATHER STRONG AND GUSTY AND VARIABLE FOR BRIEF
PERIODS BUT WINDS SHOULD FAVOR THE WEST OVERNIGHT TONIGHT. OVERNIGHT
TONIGHT WINDS WILL TAPER OFF BUT MAY BE HARD PRESSED TO SHOW NORMAL
DIURNAL TENDENCIES...AND MAY NOT TURN TO THE EAST. PRECIP SHOULD BE
MOSTLY OVER BY MID MORNING SUNDAY...WITH LINGERING LOWER CLOUDS AND
SOME BROKEN DECKS POSSIBLE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS...WITH CIGS
IN THE 5K TO 7K RANGE. GUSTY WEST/NORTHWEST WINDS SHOULD DEVELOP
AGAIN BY EARLY AFTERNOON.

SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA AND SOUTHWEST ARIZONA INCLUDING KIPL AND
KBLH...MAIN WEATHER ISSUE IN THE TAFS WILL BE GUSTY WEST WINDS
TONIGHT...AND WE MAY SEE OCCASIONAL GUSTS OVER 30KT THROUGH 05Z OR
SO BEFORE THEY START TO TAPER OFF. FOR THE MOST PART EXPECT VIS
VALUES AOA 6SM FOR THE REST OF TONIGHT AS WINDS SLOWLY TAPER OFF.
MAY SEE A FEW CIGS AROUND 8-10K FEET AT KBLH THROUGH MIDNIGHT WITH A
SHOWER POSSIBLE...BUT THEN CLEARING WILL OCCUR AS THE MAIN TROF
EXITS TO THE EAST. LLWS IS POSSIBLE AT KBLH AFTER MIDNIGHT AS
SURFACE WINDS TAPER OFF BELOW 12KT...BUT 35KT NORTHWEST WINDS SET UP
JUST ABOVE THE SURFACE. HAVE MENTIONED THIS IN THE KBLH TAF. EXPECT
A RETURN TO GUSTY NORTHWEST/NORTH WINDS DOWN THE RIVER SUNDAY WITH
OCCASIONAL GUSTS ABOVE 25KT POSSIBLE. BREEZY WEST WINDS WILL ALSO
OCCUR AT KIPL SUNDAY...UNDER MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES.

AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDED TAFS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...
IN THE WAKE OF THE DEPARTING TROUGH...NEXT WEEK WILL SEE THE ARRIVAL
OF A STRONG UPPER RIDGE OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN CONUS FROM MONDAY
THROUGH MOST OF THE WEEK. TEMPERATURES WILL WARM SUBSTANTIALLY AND
APPROACH THE TRIPLE DIGIT MARK FOR THE LATTER PART OF THE WEEK.
AFTERNOON HUMIDITIES WILL DROP INTO THE LOWER TEENS AND UPPER SINGLE
DIGITS WITH FAIR OVERNIGHT RECOVERIES EXPECTED. WINDS WILL BE GNLY
LIGHT AND SHOULD FOLLOW TYPICAL DIURNAL PATTERNS.

&&

.PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

AZ...NONE.

CA...NONE.

&&

$$

VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/PHOENIX

DISCUSSION...CB
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...KUHLMAN
AVIATION...CB
FIRE WEATHER...NOLTE/LEINS



000
FXUS65 KTWC 260400
AFDTWC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ
900 PM MST SAT APR 25 2015

.SYNOPSIS...EXPECT SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS INTO SUNDAY AS A STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
MOVES ACROSS THE FOUR CORNERS REGION. COOLER TEMPERATURES WILL ALSO
OCCUR SUNDAY. A FEW SHOWERS MAY OCCUR ACROSS THE WHITE MOUNTAINS
MONDAY AND TUESDAY. THEREAFTER...DRY CONDITIONS WITH WELL ABOVE
NORMAL DAYTIME TEMPERATURES WILL PREVAIL WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...KEMX WSR-88D DETECTED ISOLATED 35-45 DBZ ECHOES ACROSS
FAR WRN PIMA COUNTY NE OF AJO AT 0355Z. SCATTERED MOSTLY LESS THAN
30 DBZ ECHOES EXTENDED FROM TUCSON NWD ACROSS SERN PINAL/FAR WRN
GRAHAM COUNTIES. CELL MOVEMENT WAS GENERALLY TO THE NORTHEAST AROUND
20 KTS.

A DEEPENING UPPER TROUGH EXTENDED FROM THE SWRN CONUS INTO THE
PACIFIC NW THIS EVENING. A 554 DM LOW PRESSURE CENTER IS PROGGED VIA
THE 26/00Z NAM AND 26/18Z GFS TO BE OVER NERN ARIZONA AROUND
DAYBREAK SUN. HAVE NOTED THAT THE 26/00Z NAM INCREASED POPS FAIRLY
SUBSTANTIALLY FOR THE REST OF TONIGHT...ESPECIALLY FROM TUCSON NWD...
VERSUS PREVIOUS SOLUTIONS. HAVE ALSO NOTED THAT SEVERAL RUC HRRR
SOLUTIONS HAVE GENERALLY TRENDED HIGHER WITH PROGGED LIQUID RAIN
AMOUNTS THRU 12Z-15Z SUNDAY. ACCORDING TO THE 26/02Z HRRR...THE
TIMING FOR THE BEST CHANCE OF MEASURABLE RAINFALL FOR THE
TUCSON METRO AREA WILL OCCUR FROM 05Z-12Z SUNDAY OR SO.

BASED ON RADAR TRENDS AS WELL AS THE MOST RECENT RUC/NAM SOLUTIONS...
HAVE INCREASED POPS FOR THE REST OF TONIGHT...PARTICULARLY FROM
TUCSON NWD ACROSS SERN PINAL/WRN GRAHAM COUNTIES. HAVE ALSO ADDED A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA THE REST OF
TONIGHT. THE BULK OF THE PRECIPITATION SUNDAY SHOULD OCCUR NE OF
TUCSON...OR ACROSS NRN GREENLEE/GRAHAM COUNTIES. HAVE ALSO ADDED A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA SUNDAY
MORNING.

AT THIS TIME...APPEARS THAT SNOW LEVELS BY MIDDAY SUN WILL BE AROUND
7000 FEET ACROSS THE WHITE MOUNTAINS TO AROUND 8000 FEET ACROSS THE
CATALINA/RINCON MOUNTAINS NEAR TUCSON. SEVERAL INCHES OF SNOW IS
POSSIBLE BY SUNDAY EVENING ACROSS THE WHITE MOUNTAINS ABOVE
7000 FEET...WITH 2 TO 4 INCHES OF SNOW ABOVE 7000 FEET ACROSS THE
CATALINA/RINCON MOUNTAINS AS WELL AS THE GALIURO/PINALENO MOUNTAINS
IN GRAHAM COUNTY. GUSTY WEST TO SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL CONTINUE FOR
MOST LOCATIONS THE REST OF TONIGHT FOLLOWED BY GUSTY WEST TO
NORTHWEST WINDS SUNDAY. COOLER TEMPS WILL OCCUR SUN AS THE UPPER LOW
BECOMES QUASI-STATIONARY OVER NRN NEW MEXICO.

PLEASE REFER TO THE ADDITIONAL SECTIONS FOR FURTHER DETAIL.

&&

.AVIATION...VALID THRU 27/06Z.
EXPECT SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS -SHRA ALONG WITH ISOLATED -TSRA THRU
SUNDAY AFTERNOON. THE BEST CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION WILL BE NORTH
OF A SAN SIMON-KTUS-SELLS LINE. MVFR CONDITIONS MAY OCCUR ESPECIALLY
NEAR THE HIGHER TERRAIN NE OF KTUS TO THE WHITE MOUNTAINS. ISOLATED
TO SCATTERED -SHRA SUNDAY EVENING SHOULD BE CONFINED FROM VICINITY
OF KSAD TO THE WHITE MOUNTAINS.

OTHERWISE...CLOUD DECKS INTO MIDDAY SUNDAY WILL GENERALLY BE AT
6-10K FT AGL. GRADUALLY CLEARING SKIES WILL THEN OCCUR FROM WEST-TO-
EAST ACROSS SOUTHEAST ARIZONA SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND SUNDAY EVENING.
SURFACE WIND THE REST OF TONIGHT WILL MAINLY BE WLY/SWLY AT
10-20 KTS WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 25 KTS. SURFACE WIND SUNDAY WILL BE
WLY/NWLY AT 12-25 KTS WITH GUSTS OF 30-40 KTS. THE STRONGEST WIND IS
EXPECTED TO OCCUR NEAR THE NEW MEXICO BORDER. SURFACE WIND WILL
DIMINISH TO AROUND 10 KTS MOST SECTIONS TOWARD THE END OF THE
PERIOD...OR 27/06Z. AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR TAF
AMENDMENTS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...A STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING NORTH OF THE
AREA WILL BRING A GOOD CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND PERHAPS A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS INTO SUNDAY. THE BEST CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION IS
NORTH OF TUCSON. A FEW SHOWERS MAY OCCUR ACROSS THE WHITE MOUNTAINS
MONDAY AND TUESDAY. THEREAFTER...DRY CONDITIONS WITH WELL ABOVE
NORMAL DAYTIME TEMPERATURES WILL PREVAIL WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.
EXPECT GUSTY WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS SUNDAY ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM. GUSTY EAST WINDS SHOULD OCCUR TUESDAY.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...THE SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO EXIT TO THE EAST INTO
THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PLAINS MONDAY BUT THE TAIL END OF THIS
SYSTEM WILL LINGER BACK ACROSS PARTS OF THE DESERT SOUTHWEST. A
SHARP MOISTURE GRADIENT IS ADVERTISED BY THE MODELS TO BE RIGHT
ALONG THE AZ/NM BORDER MONDAY INTO TUESDAY RESULTING IN LINGERING
ISOLATED SHOWERS...MAINLY OVER THE WHITE MOUNTAINS...BUT DRY
ELSEWHERE.

BEHIND THIS SYSTEM RIDGING WILL NOSE IN ACROSS SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA
AND THE GREAT BASIN LATE TUESDAY AND OVER ARIZONA ON WEDNESDAY AND
CONTINUING INTO THURSDAY. BEYOND THURSDAY MODELS SHOW SIGNIFICANT
DISCREPANCIES...SO DID NOT MAKE ANY CHANGES TO THE FORECAST...
ALTHOUGH AT THIS TIME IT LOOKS LIKE A DRY FORECAST IS IN STORE
REGARDLESS OF THE UNCERTAINTY AMONG THE MODELS.

&&

.TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...YOUTUBE...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/TUCSON

FRANCIS
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...MOLLERE




000
FXUS65 KPSR 260400
AFDPSR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PHOENIX AZ
900 PM MST SAT APR 25 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION EARLY TONIGHT
BRINGING GUSTY WINDS AND GOOD CHANCES FOR RAIN. CHANCES FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL INCREASE THIS EVENING AND INTO
TONIGHT...BUT MAINLY ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH CENTRAL
ARIZONA. LINGERING SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED SUNDAY OVER EASTERN
ARIZONA...WITH CLEARING OVER SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA AND SOUTHWEST
ARIZONA. DRIER AND MUCH WARMER WEATHER IS EXPECTED NEXT WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

...POTENT UPPER TROUGH AND FRONTAL PASSAGE ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT
WITH STRONG GUSTY WINDS AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES...

VIGOROUS MID SPRING PACIFIC STORM SYSTEM CONTINUED TO MOVE EASTWARD
ACROSS THE DESERT SOUTHWEST EARLY THIS EVENING...BRINGING SCATTERED
TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AS WELL AS EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS TO THE STATE.
00Z PLOT DATA SHOWED THE LARGEST H5 HEIGHT FALLS ACROSS NWRN ARIZONA
AND FAR SRN NEVADA...WITH 70M FALLS NEAR LAS VEGAS. COLDEST
AIR...NEAR THE CENTER OF THE LOW...WAS WELL TO OUR NORTH AND
NORTHWEST...WITH READINGS DOWN TO MINUS 22C AT 500MB OVER FAR SRN
NEVADA/FAR NWRN AZ. CORRESPONDINGLY THE MOST SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION
HAS STAYED TO OUR NORTH...ALTHOUGH AT 8 PM A CLUSTER OF SOMEWHAT
WEAK STORMS WERE SEEN MOVING THROUGH PORTIONS OF LA PAZ
COUNTY...APPROACHING NORTHWEST MARICOPA COUNTY. IR IMAGERY AT 8 PM
SHOWED GENERALLY CLOUDY SKIES OVER MOST OF ARIZONA WITH PARTIAL
CLEARING TAKING PLACE WEST OF THE LOWER COLORADO RIVER VALLEY.

GUIDANCE REMAINS CONSISTENT IN CALLING FOR THE STORM TO DIVE
SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS ARIZONA TONIGHT...BRINGING SOME OF THE BEST
FORCING TO CENTRAL AZ BY 12Z SUNDAY. A LARGE BULLSEYE OF MID LEVEL Q
CONVERGENCE AND STRONG PVA FOCUS INTO MARICOPA COUNTY AFTER MIDNIGHT
TONIGHT AND THERE APPEARS TO BE SUFFICIENT MOISTURE TO ALLOW FOR
NUMEROUS SHOWERS FORMING OVER THE CENTRAL DESERTS STARTING LATER
THIS EVENING AND PERSISTING WELL PAST MIDNIGHT. DESPITE SOMEWHAT
LIMITED CAPE VALUES...THERE IS ENOUGH FORCING AND A STRONG ENOUGH
UPPER WIND FIELD TO ALLOW ISOLATED STORMS TO FORM TONIGHT...AND ANY
STORM THAT FORMS HAS THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE GUSTY WINDS IN EXCESS
OF 40 MPH AS WELL AS SMALLER HAIL AND BRIEF MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN.
BY SUNRISE SUNDAY...CLEARING WILL TAKING PLACE WEST OF MARICOPA
COUNTY AS STRONGER SUBSIDENCE BEHIND THE PASSING TROF MOVES INTO THE
AREA. STRONG AND GUSTY WEST WINDS CONTINUED OVER PORTIONS OF
IMPERIAL AND EASTERN RIVERSIDE COUNTY EARLY THIS EVENING...WITH
OCCASIONAL GUSTS REACHING TO NEAR OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE WIND ADVISORY
LEVELS. EXPECT THE WINDS TO GRADUALLY TAPER OFF AND FOR THE MOST
PART SHOULD DROP BELOW CRITERIA BY THE TIME THE ADVISORY ENDS AT 9
PM. FORECASTS HAVE BEEN ADJUSTED FOR CURRENT SKY...POP AND WEATHER
TRENDS AND APPEARS TO BE IN GOOD SHAPE FOR NOW.

.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
TODAY THUS FAR HAS BEEN FAIRLY QUIET ACROSS THE AREA EXCEPT FOR SOME
LIGHT SHOWERS PASSING THROUGH RIVERSIDE AND LA PAZ COUNTIES WITH
SOME RECENT DEVELOPMENT JUST TO OUR NORTH IN YAVAPAI COUNTY. THESE
SHOWERS WERE IN RESPONSE TO A WEAKENING SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING INTO
CENTRAL ARIZONA OUT AHEAD OF THE MAIN TROUGH THAT WILL AFFECT THE
AREA LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT. CURRENT WATER VAPOR AND UPPER HEIGHT
ANALYSIS SHOWS A RATHER IMPRESSIVE UPPER TROUGH APPROACHING FROM THE
NORTHWEST WITH THE MAIN SHORTWAVE TROUGH JUST WEST OF LAS VEGAS.
DIFLUENT FLOW ALOFT OVER SOUTHERN NEVADA AND UTAH ALONG WITH STRONG
500MB HEIGHT FALLS CENTERED OVER THE SIERRAS ARE HELPING TO SPARK
OFF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. WINDS AHEAD OF AN ADVANCING
COLD FRONT HAVE BECOME GUSTY ACROSS SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA WITH SOME
GUSTS TO AROUND 35 KNOTS. AS THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH THIS
EVENING...CAN EXPECT SOME WIND GUSTS UP TO 40-45 KNOTS IN SOME
LOCALIZED SPOTS ALONG WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME BLOWING DUST.

THE MAIN SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND COLD FRONT WILL QUICKLY DIVE
SOUTHEASTWARD THROUGH THE REST OF TODAY...REACHING SOUTH-CENTRAL
ARIZONA AROUND 06Z THIS EVENING. STILL EXPECTING SCATTERED TO
WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP AHEAD OF THESE
FEATURES DURING THE EVENING TIME FRAME WITH BEST CHANCES STRETCHING
FROM NORTHERN LA PAZ COUNTY THROUGH MUCH OF MARICOPA COUNTY...INTO
SOUTHERN GILA COUNTY. CONDITIONS REMAIN RATHER MOIST BETWEEN 8-10K
FEET...BUT FURTHER MOISTENING IN THE MID LEVELS WILL OCCUR AS THE
TROUGH AND COLDER AIR MOVES IN FROM THE NORTHWEST. THE MOIST
CONDITIONS...WEAK UPSLOPE LOW LEVEL FLOW...AND STRONG FORECAST MODEL
OMEGA FOR THIS EVENING ACROSS SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA...WILL ALL COME
INTO PLAY TO AID IN SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT. STRONGER
SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO BRING SOME GUSTY
WINDS DOWN TO THE SURFACE...SO SOME STRONGER SUB-SEVERE GUSTS ARE
POSSIBLE.

BY SUNDAY MORNING...THE MAIN SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL BE MOVING INTO
WESTERN NEW MEXICO WITH SUBSIDENCE ALOFT WORKING INTO OUR WESTERN
ZONES. CHANCES FOR LINGERING SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH SUNDAY
MORNING FROM AROUND PHOENIX EASTWARD WITH BEST CHANCES OVER THE
HIGHER TERRAIN OF EAST-CENTRAL ARIZONA. BY MID TO LATE SUNDAY
AFTERNOON...THE DRIER AIR BEHIND THE TROUGH WILL HAVE MIXED OUT THE
LOW LEVELS ENOUGH TO BASICALLY KEEP ANY REMAINING SHOWER CHANCES
OVER HIGHER TERRAIN AREAS. OUR WESTERN ZONES SHOULD CLEAR OUT FAIRLY
QUICKLY ON SUNDAY WITH HIGHS REBOUNDING BACK INTO THE LOW TO MID
80S. ELSEWHERE...TEMPERATURES SHOULD ONLY PEAK OUT IN THE UPPER 70S
ACROSS THE SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA DESERTS.

FOR THE COMING WORK WEEK...A LARGE RIDGE IS FORECAST TO TAKE OVER
WITH DRY CONDITIONS AND WARMING TEMPERATURES. HIGHS BY MONDAY SHOULD
REACH NEAR NORMALS AND ONCE THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE FINALLY TAKES
OVER...TEMPERATURES WILL HEAT UP EVEN MORE WITH FORECAST HIGHS IN
THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 90S FOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY ACROSS THE
DESERTS. THOUGH THERE ARE SOME MODEL DIFFERENCES BEYOND NEXT
THURSDAY...THE GENERAL CONSENSUS IS THAT LARGE SCALE TROUGHING WILL
PUSH THE RIDGE OUT THE REGION ALLOWING FOR SOME MODERATION IN
TEMPERATURES...BUT CONTINUING WITH THE DRY CONDITIONS.

&&

AVIATION...

SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA INCLUDING KPHX...KIWA...AND KSDL... VIGOROUS
UPPER LEVEL PACIFIC STORM SYSTEM CONTINUED TO APPROACH THE CENTRAL
DESERTS EARLY THIS EVENING...BUT AS OF 8 PM MOST CIGS WERE AOA 8K
FEET AND SHOWERS WERE ISOLATED TO SCATTERED. STILL EXPECT CIGS TO
LOWER AND SHOWERS TO BECOMING MORE WIDESPREAD BY 05Z...WITH CIGS
BELOW 5K FEET LIKELY AFTER MIDNIGHT AND THROUGH SUNRISE SUNDAY.
ISOLATED EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS AREA ALSO POSSIBLE...BUT CONFIDENCE
NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO CALL FOR PREDOMINATE THUNDER. HAVE GONE WITH
PREDOMINATE SHOWERS IN THE PHOENIX AREA TAFS AFTER 05Z...WITH VCTS
ADDED TO REFLECT THE THUNDER THREAT. SHOULD A STORM FORM THE SURFACE
WINDS MAY BECOME RATHER STRONG AND GUSTY AND VARIABLE FOR BRIEF
PERIODS BUT WINDS SHOULD FAVOR THE WEST OVERNIGHT TONIGHT. OVERNIGHT
TONIGHT WINDS WILL TAPER OFF BUT MAY BE HARD PRESSED TO SHOW NORMAL
DIURNAL TENDENCIES...AND MAY NOT TURN TO THE EAST. PRECIP SHOULD BE
MOSTLY OVER BY MID MORNING SUNDAY...WITH LINGERING LOWER CLOUDS AND
SOME BROKEN DECKS POSSIBLE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS...WITH CIGS
IN THE 5K TO 7K RANGE. GUSTY WEST/NORTHWEST WINDS SHOULD DEVELOP
AGAIN BY EARLY AFTERNOON.

SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA AND SOUTHWEST ARIZONA INCLUDING KIPL AND
KBLH...MAIN WEATHER ISSUE IN THE TAFS WILL BE GUSTY WEST WINDS
TONIGHT...AND WE MAY SEE OCCASIONAL GUSTS OVER 30KT THROUGH 05Z OR
SO BEFORE THEY START TO TAPER OFF. FOR THE MOST PART EXPECT VIS
VALUES AOA 6SM FOR THE REST OF TONIGHT AS WINDS SLOWLY TAPER OFF.
MAY SEE A FEW CIGS AROUND 8-10K FEET AT KBLH THROUGH MIDNIGHT WITH A
SHOWER POSSIBLE...BUT THEN CLEARING WILL OCCUR AS THE MAIN TROF
EXITS TO THE EAST. LLWS IS POSSIBLE AT KBLH AFTER MIDNIGHT AS
SURFACE WINDS TAPER OFF BELOW 12KT...BUT 35KT NORTHWEST WINDS SET UP
JUST ABOVE THE SURFACE. HAVE MENTIONED THIS IN THE KBLH TAF. EXPECT
A RETURN TO GUSTY NORTHWEST/NORTH WINDS DOWN THE RIVER SUNDAY WITH
OCCASIONAL GUSTS ABOVE 25KT POSSIBLE. BREEZY WEST WINDS WILL ALSO
OCCUR AT KIPL SUNDAY...UNDER MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES.

AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDED TAFS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...
IN THE WAKE OF THE DEPARTING TROUGH...NEXT WEEK WILL SEE THE ARRIVAL
OF A STRONG UPPER RIDGE OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN CONUS FROM MONDAY
THROUGH MOST OF THE WEEK. TEMPERATURES WILL WARM SUBSTANTIALLY AND
APPROACH THE TRIPLE DIGIT MARK FOR THE LATTER PART OF THE WEEK.
AFTERNOON HUMIDITIES WILL DROP INTO THE LOWER TEENS AND UPPER SINGLE
DIGITS WITH FAIR OVERNIGHT RECOVERIES EXPECTED. WINDS WILL BE GNLY
LIGHT AND SHOULD FOLLOW TYPICAL DIURNAL PATTERNS.

&&

.PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

AZ...NONE.

CA...NONE.

&&

$$

VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/PHOENIX

DISCUSSION...CB
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...KUHLMAN
AVIATION...CB
FIRE WEATHER...NOLTE/LEINS




000
FXUS65 KTWC 260400
AFDTWC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ
900 PM MST SAT APR 25 2015

.SYNOPSIS...EXPECT SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS INTO SUNDAY AS A STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
MOVES ACROSS THE FOUR CORNERS REGION. COOLER TEMPERATURES WILL ALSO
OCCUR SUNDAY. A FEW SHOWERS MAY OCCUR ACROSS THE WHITE MOUNTAINS
MONDAY AND TUESDAY. THEREAFTER...DRY CONDITIONS WITH WELL ABOVE
NORMAL DAYTIME TEMPERATURES WILL PREVAIL WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...KEMX WSR-88D DETECTED ISOLATED 35-45 DBZ ECHOES ACROSS
FAR WRN PIMA COUNTY NE OF AJO AT 0355Z. SCATTERED MOSTLY LESS THAN
30 DBZ ECHOES EXTENDED FROM TUCSON NWD ACROSS SERN PINAL/FAR WRN
GRAHAM COUNTIES. CELL MOVEMENT WAS GENERALLY TO THE NORTHEAST AROUND
20 KTS.

A DEEPENING UPPER TROUGH EXTENDED FROM THE SWRN CONUS INTO THE
PACIFIC NW THIS EVENING. A 554 DM LOW PRESSURE CENTER IS PROGGED VIA
THE 26/00Z NAM AND 26/18Z GFS TO BE OVER NERN ARIZONA AROUND
DAYBREAK SUN. HAVE NOTED THAT THE 26/00Z NAM INCREASED POPS FAIRLY
SUBSTANTIALLY FOR THE REST OF TONIGHT...ESPECIALLY FROM TUCSON NWD...
VERSUS PREVIOUS SOLUTIONS. HAVE ALSO NOTED THAT SEVERAL RUC HRRR
SOLUTIONS HAVE GENERALLY TRENDED HIGHER WITH PROGGED LIQUID RAIN
AMOUNTS THRU 12Z-15Z SUNDAY. ACCORDING TO THE 26/02Z HRRR...THE
TIMING FOR THE BEST CHANCE OF MEASURABLE RAINFALL FOR THE
TUCSON METRO AREA WILL OCCUR FROM 05Z-12Z SUNDAY OR SO.

BASED ON RADAR TRENDS AS WELL AS THE MOST RECENT RUC/NAM SOLUTIONS...
HAVE INCREASED POPS FOR THE REST OF TONIGHT...PARTICULARLY FROM
TUCSON NWD ACROSS SERN PINAL/WRN GRAHAM COUNTIES. HAVE ALSO ADDED A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA THE REST OF
TONIGHT. THE BULK OF THE PRECIPITATION SUNDAY SHOULD OCCUR NE OF
TUCSON...OR ACROSS NRN GREENLEE/GRAHAM COUNTIES. HAVE ALSO ADDED A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA SUNDAY
MORNING.

AT THIS TIME...APPEARS THAT SNOW LEVELS BY MIDDAY SUN WILL BE AROUND
7000 FEET ACROSS THE WHITE MOUNTAINS TO AROUND 8000 FEET ACROSS THE
CATALINA/RINCON MOUNTAINS NEAR TUCSON. SEVERAL INCHES OF SNOW IS
POSSIBLE BY SUNDAY EVENING ACROSS THE WHITE MOUNTAINS ABOVE
7000 FEET...WITH 2 TO 4 INCHES OF SNOW ABOVE 7000 FEET ACROSS THE
CATALINA/RINCON MOUNTAINS AS WELL AS THE GALIURO/PINALENO MOUNTAINS
IN GRAHAM COUNTY. GUSTY WEST TO SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL CONTINUE FOR
MOST LOCATIONS THE REST OF TONIGHT FOLLOWED BY GUSTY WEST TO
NORTHWEST WINDS SUNDAY. COOLER TEMPS WILL OCCUR SUN AS THE UPPER LOW
BECOMES QUASI-STATIONARY OVER NRN NEW MEXICO.

PLEASE REFER TO THE ADDITIONAL SECTIONS FOR FURTHER DETAIL.

&&

.AVIATION...VALID THRU 27/06Z.
EXPECT SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS -SHRA ALONG WITH ISOLATED -TSRA THRU
SUNDAY AFTERNOON. THE BEST CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION WILL BE NORTH
OF A SAN SIMON-KTUS-SELLS LINE. MVFR CONDITIONS MAY OCCUR ESPECIALLY
NEAR THE HIGHER TERRAIN NE OF KTUS TO THE WHITE MOUNTAINS. ISOLATED
TO SCATTERED -SHRA SUNDAY EVENING SHOULD BE CONFINED FROM VICINITY
OF KSAD TO THE WHITE MOUNTAINS.

OTHERWISE...CLOUD DECKS INTO MIDDAY SUNDAY WILL GENERALLY BE AT
6-10K FT AGL. GRADUALLY CLEARING SKIES WILL THEN OCCUR FROM WEST-TO-
EAST ACROSS SOUTHEAST ARIZONA SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND SUNDAY EVENING.
SURFACE WIND THE REST OF TONIGHT WILL MAINLY BE WLY/SWLY AT
10-20 KTS WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 25 KTS. SURFACE WIND SUNDAY WILL BE
WLY/NWLY AT 12-25 KTS WITH GUSTS OF 30-40 KTS. THE STRONGEST WIND IS
EXPECTED TO OCCUR NEAR THE NEW MEXICO BORDER. SURFACE WIND WILL
DIMINISH TO AROUND 10 KTS MOST SECTIONS TOWARD THE END OF THE
PERIOD...OR 27/06Z. AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR TAF
AMENDMENTS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...A STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING NORTH OF THE
AREA WILL BRING A GOOD CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND PERHAPS A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS INTO SUNDAY. THE BEST CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION IS
NORTH OF TUCSON. A FEW SHOWERS MAY OCCUR ACROSS THE WHITE MOUNTAINS
MONDAY AND TUESDAY. THEREAFTER...DRY CONDITIONS WITH WELL ABOVE
NORMAL DAYTIME TEMPERATURES WILL PREVAIL WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.
EXPECT GUSTY WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS SUNDAY ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM. GUSTY EAST WINDS SHOULD OCCUR TUESDAY.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...THE SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO EXIT TO THE EAST INTO
THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PLAINS MONDAY BUT THE TAIL END OF THIS
SYSTEM WILL LINGER BACK ACROSS PARTS OF THE DESERT SOUTHWEST. A
SHARP MOISTURE GRADIENT IS ADVERTISED BY THE MODELS TO BE RIGHT
ALONG THE AZ/NM BORDER MONDAY INTO TUESDAY RESULTING IN LINGERING
ISOLATED SHOWERS...MAINLY OVER THE WHITE MOUNTAINS...BUT DRY
ELSEWHERE.

BEHIND THIS SYSTEM RIDGING WILL NOSE IN ACROSS SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA
AND THE GREAT BASIN LATE TUESDAY AND OVER ARIZONA ON WEDNESDAY AND
CONTINUING INTO THURSDAY. BEYOND THURSDAY MODELS SHOW SIGNIFICANT
DISCREPANCIES...SO DID NOT MAKE ANY CHANGES TO THE FORECAST...
ALTHOUGH AT THIS TIME IT LOOKS LIKE A DRY FORECAST IS IN STORE
REGARDLESS OF THE UNCERTAINTY AMONG THE MODELS.

&&

.TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...YOUTUBE...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/TUCSON

FRANCIS
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...MOLLERE



000
FXUS65 KFGZ 260155
AFDFGZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ
655 PM MST SAT APR 25 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE ACROSS ARIZONA THROUGH SUNDAY WITH
WINDY AND COLDER CONDITIONS...ALONG WITH RAIN AND MOUNTAIN SNOW
SHOWERS. SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR AREAS NEAR AND
ABOVE 7000 FEET. MUCH WARMER AND DRIER WEATHER WILL ARRIVE NEXT WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS DEVELOPED OVER BELLEMONT DURING THE PAST
HOUR...WITH SNOW SHOWERS CONTINUING AS OF THIS WRITING. GIVEN THE
RECENT OBSERVATIONS...UPDATED THE FORECAST TO INCLUDE SNOW
SHOWERS THIS EVENING NEAR THE FLAGSTAFF AREA. ALSO BEEFED UP
PROJECTED SNOW TOTALS AS SNOW IS BEGINNING TO ACCUMULATE. FOR NOW
THINK ONE TO FOUR INCHES OF SNOW WILL ACCUMULATE OVER AREAS ABOVE
7000 FEET TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING. MUCH HIGHER AMOUNTS ARE
FORECAST FOR MOUNTAIN PEAKS. THE UPDATED GRIDDED AND TEXT PRODUCTS
HAVE BEEN SENT.

&&

.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION /330 PM MST/...
A STRONG TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE OVER THE WESTERN USA
IS MOVING SOUTHWARD TOWARD ARIZONA THIS AFTERNOON. THE ASSOCIATED
COLD FRONT IS PUSHING ACROSS SOUTHERN NEVADA THIS AFTERNOON...AND
SHOULD ENTER FAR NORTHWESTERN ARIZONA EARLY THIS EVENING. WINDS
AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO BE STRONG AND GUSTY OUT OF THE
SOUTHWEST. SCATTERED SHOWERS OVER NORTHERN ARIZONA WILL INCREASE IN
NUMBER AND COVERAGE THIS EVENING AS THE TROUGH AND COLD FRONT PUSH
SOUTHEASTWARD TONIGHT. THUNDERSTORMS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE ALONG AND
AHEAD OF THE FRONT. MOST AREAS WILL BEGIN AS RAIN WITH HIGHER
ELEVATIONS ABOVE 6500-7000 FEET SEEING A SWITCH OVER TO SNOW BY
EARLY SUNDAY MORNING WHEN THE COLDEST AIR ARRIVES. ELEVATIONS
GENERALLY 7000 FT TO AROUND 9000 FEET ARE EXPECTED TO SEE ANYWHERE
FROM A TRACE TO 2 INCHES OF SNOWFALL DURING THE EAWRLY MORNING
HOURS...WITH HIGHER AMOUNTS OVER MOUNTAIN PEAKS. INSTABILITY SHOWERS
WILL CONTINUE MUCH OF THE DAY SUNDAY WITH SNOW LEVELS GRADUALLY
RISING ABOVE 7000 FEET.

WARMER WEATHER QUICKLY DEVELOPS NEXT WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
INTO THE SOUTHWEST. TEMPERATURES WILL WARM CLOSER TO NORMAL BY
MONDAY AND UP TO 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL BY THE MID TO LATTER PART
OF NEXT WEEK. A LOW CHANCE FOR SHOWERS WILL LINGER ALONG THE NEW
MEXICO BORDER THROUGH TUESDAY WITH OTHERWISE DRY WEATHER.

&&

.AVIATION...
FOR THE 00Z PACKAGE...VFR CONDITIONS WILL LINGER EAST OF
A LINE FROM KSOW TO KRQE THROUGH 01Z-03Z. OTHERWISE...WDSPRD
MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE PERIOD...WITH SCT LIFR
DEVELOPING AS COLDER AIR AND HEAVIER PRECIPITATION MOVES FROM NW TO
SE. ALL AREAS WILL BE WDSPRD MVFR/IFR WITH SCT LIFR BY 02Z-04Z.
EXPECT TO ENCOUNTER SNOW ABOVE 7000 FEET BY MID-EVENING. DAYTIME SW
SFC WINDS 15-25G30KTS TODAY. SFC SW WINDS 10-20G30KTS OVERNIGHT.
WINDS SHIFT TO NW 10-20G25KTS SUNDAY. AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT
UPDATED FOR TAF AMENDMENTS.

&&

.FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC.........TM
AVIATION.......PETERSON

FOR NORTHERN ARIZONA WEATHER INFORMATION VISIT
WEATHER.GOV/FLAGSTAFF






000
FXUS65 KFGZ 260155
AFDFGZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ
655 PM MST SAT APR 25 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE ACROSS ARIZONA THROUGH SUNDAY WITH
WINDY AND COLDER CONDITIONS...ALONG WITH RAIN AND MOUNTAIN SNOW
SHOWERS. SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR AREAS NEAR AND
ABOVE 7000 FEET. MUCH WARMER AND DRIER WEATHER WILL ARRIVE NEXT WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS DEVELOPED OVER BELLEMONT DURING THE PAST
HOUR...WITH SNOW SHOWERS CONTINUING AS OF THIS WRITING. GIVEN THE
RECENT OBSERVATIONS...UPDATED THE FORECAST TO INCLUDE SNOW
SHOWERS THIS EVENING NEAR THE FLAGSTAFF AREA. ALSO BEEFED UP
PROJECTED SNOW TOTALS AS SNOW IS BEGINNING TO ACCUMULATE. FOR NOW
THINK ONE TO FOUR INCHES OF SNOW WILL ACCUMULATE OVER AREAS ABOVE
7000 FEET TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING. MUCH HIGHER AMOUNTS ARE
FORECAST FOR MOUNTAIN PEAKS. THE UPDATED GRIDDED AND TEXT PRODUCTS
HAVE BEEN SENT.

&&

.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION /330 PM MST/...
A STRONG TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE OVER THE WESTERN USA
IS MOVING SOUTHWARD TOWARD ARIZONA THIS AFTERNOON. THE ASSOCIATED
COLD FRONT IS PUSHING ACROSS SOUTHERN NEVADA THIS AFTERNOON...AND
SHOULD ENTER FAR NORTHWESTERN ARIZONA EARLY THIS EVENING. WINDS
AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO BE STRONG AND GUSTY OUT OF THE
SOUTHWEST. SCATTERED SHOWERS OVER NORTHERN ARIZONA WILL INCREASE IN
NUMBER AND COVERAGE THIS EVENING AS THE TROUGH AND COLD FRONT PUSH
SOUTHEASTWARD TONIGHT. THUNDERSTORMS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE ALONG AND
AHEAD OF THE FRONT. MOST AREAS WILL BEGIN AS RAIN WITH HIGHER
ELEVATIONS ABOVE 6500-7000 FEET SEEING A SWITCH OVER TO SNOW BY
EARLY SUNDAY MORNING WHEN THE COLDEST AIR ARRIVES. ELEVATIONS
GENERALLY 7000 FT TO AROUND 9000 FEET ARE EXPECTED TO SEE ANYWHERE
FROM A TRACE TO 2 INCHES OF SNOWFALL DURING THE EAWRLY MORNING
HOURS...WITH HIGHER AMOUNTS OVER MOUNTAIN PEAKS. INSTABILITY SHOWERS
WILL CONTINUE MUCH OF THE DAY SUNDAY WITH SNOW LEVELS GRADUALLY
RISING ABOVE 7000 FEET.

WARMER WEATHER QUICKLY DEVELOPS NEXT WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
INTO THE SOUTHWEST. TEMPERATURES WILL WARM CLOSER TO NORMAL BY
MONDAY AND UP TO 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL BY THE MID TO LATTER PART
OF NEXT WEEK. A LOW CHANCE FOR SHOWERS WILL LINGER ALONG THE NEW
MEXICO BORDER THROUGH TUESDAY WITH OTHERWISE DRY WEATHER.

&&

.AVIATION...
FOR THE 00Z PACKAGE...VFR CONDITIONS WILL LINGER EAST OF
A LINE FROM KSOW TO KRQE THROUGH 01Z-03Z. OTHERWISE...WDSPRD
MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE PERIOD...WITH SCT LIFR
DEVELOPING AS COLDER AIR AND HEAVIER PRECIPITATION MOVES FROM NW TO
SE. ALL AREAS WILL BE WDSPRD MVFR/IFR WITH SCT LIFR BY 02Z-04Z.
EXPECT TO ENCOUNTER SNOW ABOVE 7000 FEET BY MID-EVENING. DAYTIME SW
SFC WINDS 15-25G30KTS TODAY. SFC SW WINDS 10-20G30KTS OVERNIGHT.
WINDS SHIFT TO NW 10-20G25KTS SUNDAY. AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT
UPDATED FOR TAF AMENDMENTS.

&&

.FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC.........TM
AVIATION.......PETERSON

FOR NORTHERN ARIZONA WEATHER INFORMATION VISIT
WEATHER.GOV/FLAGSTAFF






000
FXUS65 KFGZ 260155
AFDFGZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ
655 PM MST SAT APR 25 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE ACROSS ARIZONA THROUGH SUNDAY WITH
WINDY AND COLDER CONDITIONS...ALONG WITH RAIN AND MOUNTAIN SNOW
SHOWERS. SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR AREAS NEAR AND
ABOVE 7000 FEET. MUCH WARMER AND DRIER WEATHER WILL ARRIVE NEXT WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS DEVELOPED OVER BELLEMONT DURING THE PAST
HOUR...WITH SNOW SHOWERS CONTINUING AS OF THIS WRITING. GIVEN THE
RECENT OBSERVATIONS...UPDATED THE FORECAST TO INCLUDE SNOW
SHOWERS THIS EVENING NEAR THE FLAGSTAFF AREA. ALSO BEEFED UP
PROJECTED SNOW TOTALS AS SNOW IS BEGINNING TO ACCUMULATE. FOR NOW
THINK ONE TO FOUR INCHES OF SNOW WILL ACCUMULATE OVER AREAS ABOVE
7000 FEET TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING. MUCH HIGHER AMOUNTS ARE
FORECAST FOR MOUNTAIN PEAKS. THE UPDATED GRIDDED AND TEXT PRODUCTS
HAVE BEEN SENT.

&&

.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION /330 PM MST/...
A STRONG TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE OVER THE WESTERN USA
IS MOVING SOUTHWARD TOWARD ARIZONA THIS AFTERNOON. THE ASSOCIATED
COLD FRONT IS PUSHING ACROSS SOUTHERN NEVADA THIS AFTERNOON...AND
SHOULD ENTER FAR NORTHWESTERN ARIZONA EARLY THIS EVENING. WINDS
AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO BE STRONG AND GUSTY OUT OF THE
SOUTHWEST. SCATTERED SHOWERS OVER NORTHERN ARIZONA WILL INCREASE IN
NUMBER AND COVERAGE THIS EVENING AS THE TROUGH AND COLD FRONT PUSH
SOUTHEASTWARD TONIGHT. THUNDERSTORMS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE ALONG AND
AHEAD OF THE FRONT. MOST AREAS WILL BEGIN AS RAIN WITH HIGHER
ELEVATIONS ABOVE 6500-7000 FEET SEEING A SWITCH OVER TO SNOW BY
EARLY SUNDAY MORNING WHEN THE COLDEST AIR ARRIVES. ELEVATIONS
GENERALLY 7000 FT TO AROUND 9000 FEET ARE EXPECTED TO SEE ANYWHERE
FROM A TRACE TO 2 INCHES OF SNOWFALL DURING THE EAWRLY MORNING
HOURS...WITH HIGHER AMOUNTS OVER MOUNTAIN PEAKS. INSTABILITY SHOWERS
WILL CONTINUE MUCH OF THE DAY SUNDAY WITH SNOW LEVELS GRADUALLY
RISING ABOVE 7000 FEET.

WARMER WEATHER QUICKLY DEVELOPS NEXT WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
INTO THE SOUTHWEST. TEMPERATURES WILL WARM CLOSER TO NORMAL BY
MONDAY AND UP TO 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL BY THE MID TO LATTER PART
OF NEXT WEEK. A LOW CHANCE FOR SHOWERS WILL LINGER ALONG THE NEW
MEXICO BORDER THROUGH TUESDAY WITH OTHERWISE DRY WEATHER.

&&

.AVIATION...
FOR THE 00Z PACKAGE...VFR CONDITIONS WILL LINGER EAST OF
A LINE FROM KSOW TO KRQE THROUGH 01Z-03Z. OTHERWISE...WDSPRD
MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE PERIOD...WITH SCT LIFR
DEVELOPING AS COLDER AIR AND HEAVIER PRECIPITATION MOVES FROM NW TO
SE. ALL AREAS WILL BE WDSPRD MVFR/IFR WITH SCT LIFR BY 02Z-04Z.
EXPECT TO ENCOUNTER SNOW ABOVE 7000 FEET BY MID-EVENING. DAYTIME SW
SFC WINDS 15-25G30KTS TODAY. SFC SW WINDS 10-20G30KTS OVERNIGHT.
WINDS SHIFT TO NW 10-20G25KTS SUNDAY. AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT
UPDATED FOR TAF AMENDMENTS.

&&

.FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC.........TM
AVIATION.......PETERSON

FOR NORTHERN ARIZONA WEATHER INFORMATION VISIT
WEATHER.GOV/FLAGSTAFF






000
FXUS65 KFGZ 260155
AFDFGZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ
655 PM MST SAT APR 25 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE ACROSS ARIZONA THROUGH SUNDAY WITH
WINDY AND COLDER CONDITIONS...ALONG WITH RAIN AND MOUNTAIN SNOW
SHOWERS. SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR AREAS NEAR AND
ABOVE 7000 FEET. MUCH WARMER AND DRIER WEATHER WILL ARRIVE NEXT WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS DEVELOPED OVER BELLEMONT DURING THE PAST
HOUR...WITH SNOW SHOWERS CONTINUING AS OF THIS WRITING. GIVEN THE
RECENT OBSERVATIONS...UPDATED THE FORECAST TO INCLUDE SNOW
SHOWERS THIS EVENING NEAR THE FLAGSTAFF AREA. ALSO BEEFED UP
PROJECTED SNOW TOTALS AS SNOW IS BEGINNING TO ACCUMULATE. FOR NOW
THINK ONE TO FOUR INCHES OF SNOW WILL ACCUMULATE OVER AREAS ABOVE
7000 FEET TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING. MUCH HIGHER AMOUNTS ARE
FORECAST FOR MOUNTAIN PEAKS. THE UPDATED GRIDDED AND TEXT PRODUCTS
HAVE BEEN SENT.

&&

.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION /330 PM MST/...
A STRONG TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE OVER THE WESTERN USA
IS MOVING SOUTHWARD TOWARD ARIZONA THIS AFTERNOON. THE ASSOCIATED
COLD FRONT IS PUSHING ACROSS SOUTHERN NEVADA THIS AFTERNOON...AND
SHOULD ENTER FAR NORTHWESTERN ARIZONA EARLY THIS EVENING. WINDS
AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO BE STRONG AND GUSTY OUT OF THE
SOUTHWEST. SCATTERED SHOWERS OVER NORTHERN ARIZONA WILL INCREASE IN
NUMBER AND COVERAGE THIS EVENING AS THE TROUGH AND COLD FRONT PUSH
SOUTHEASTWARD TONIGHT. THUNDERSTORMS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE ALONG AND
AHEAD OF THE FRONT. MOST AREAS WILL BEGIN AS RAIN WITH HIGHER
ELEVATIONS ABOVE 6500-7000 FEET SEEING A SWITCH OVER TO SNOW BY
EARLY SUNDAY MORNING WHEN THE COLDEST AIR ARRIVES. ELEVATIONS
GENERALLY 7000 FT TO AROUND 9000 FEET ARE EXPECTED TO SEE ANYWHERE
FROM A TRACE TO 2 INCHES OF SNOWFALL DURING THE EAWRLY MORNING
HOURS...WITH HIGHER AMOUNTS OVER MOUNTAIN PEAKS. INSTABILITY SHOWERS
WILL CONTINUE MUCH OF THE DAY SUNDAY WITH SNOW LEVELS GRADUALLY
RISING ABOVE 7000 FEET.

WARMER WEATHER QUICKLY DEVELOPS NEXT WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
INTO THE SOUTHWEST. TEMPERATURES WILL WARM CLOSER TO NORMAL BY
MONDAY AND UP TO 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL BY THE MID TO LATTER PART
OF NEXT WEEK. A LOW CHANCE FOR SHOWERS WILL LINGER ALONG THE NEW
MEXICO BORDER THROUGH TUESDAY WITH OTHERWISE DRY WEATHER.

&&

.AVIATION...
FOR THE 00Z PACKAGE...VFR CONDITIONS WILL LINGER EAST OF
A LINE FROM KSOW TO KRQE THROUGH 01Z-03Z. OTHERWISE...WDSPRD
MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE PERIOD...WITH SCT LIFR
DEVELOPING AS COLDER AIR AND HEAVIER PRECIPITATION MOVES FROM NW TO
SE. ALL AREAS WILL BE WDSPRD MVFR/IFR WITH SCT LIFR BY 02Z-04Z.
EXPECT TO ENCOUNTER SNOW ABOVE 7000 FEET BY MID-EVENING. DAYTIME SW
SFC WINDS 15-25G30KTS TODAY. SFC SW WINDS 10-20G30KTS OVERNIGHT.
WINDS SHIFT TO NW 10-20G25KTS SUNDAY. AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT
UPDATED FOR TAF AMENDMENTS.

&&

.FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC.........TM
AVIATION.......PETERSON

FOR NORTHERN ARIZONA WEATHER INFORMATION VISIT
WEATHER.GOV/FLAGSTAFF






000
FXUS65 KFGZ 260155
AFDFGZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ
655 PM MST SAT APR 25 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE ACROSS ARIZONA THROUGH SUNDAY WITH
WINDY AND COLDER CONDITIONS...ALONG WITH RAIN AND MOUNTAIN SNOW
SHOWERS. SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR AREAS NEAR AND
ABOVE 7000 FEET. MUCH WARMER AND DRIER WEATHER WILL ARRIVE NEXT WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS DEVELOPED OVER BELLEMONT DURING THE PAST
HOUR...WITH SNOW SHOWERS CONTINUING AS OF THIS WRITING. GIVEN THE
RECENT OBSERVATIONS...UPDATED THE FORECAST TO INCLUDE SNOW
SHOWERS THIS EVENING NEAR THE FLAGSTAFF AREA. ALSO BEEFED UP
PROJECTED SNOW TOTALS AS SNOW IS BEGINNING TO ACCUMULATE. FOR NOW
THINK ONE TO FOUR INCHES OF SNOW WILL ACCUMULATE OVER AREAS ABOVE
7000 FEET TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING. MUCH HIGHER AMOUNTS ARE
FORECAST FOR MOUNTAIN PEAKS. THE UPDATED GRIDDED AND TEXT PRODUCTS
HAVE BEEN SENT.

&&

.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION /330 PM MST/...
A STRONG TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE OVER THE WESTERN USA
IS MOVING SOUTHWARD TOWARD ARIZONA THIS AFTERNOON. THE ASSOCIATED
COLD FRONT IS PUSHING ACROSS SOUTHERN NEVADA THIS AFTERNOON...AND
SHOULD ENTER FAR NORTHWESTERN ARIZONA EARLY THIS EVENING. WINDS
AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO BE STRONG AND GUSTY OUT OF THE
SOUTHWEST. SCATTERED SHOWERS OVER NORTHERN ARIZONA WILL INCREASE IN
NUMBER AND COVERAGE THIS EVENING AS THE TROUGH AND COLD FRONT PUSH
SOUTHEASTWARD TONIGHT. THUNDERSTORMS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE ALONG AND
AHEAD OF THE FRONT. MOST AREAS WILL BEGIN AS RAIN WITH HIGHER
ELEVATIONS ABOVE 6500-7000 FEET SEEING A SWITCH OVER TO SNOW BY
EARLY SUNDAY MORNING WHEN THE COLDEST AIR ARRIVES. ELEVATIONS
GENERALLY 7000 FT TO AROUND 9000 FEET ARE EXPECTED TO SEE ANYWHERE
FROM A TRACE TO 2 INCHES OF SNOWFALL DURING THE EAWRLY MORNING
HOURS...WITH HIGHER AMOUNTS OVER MOUNTAIN PEAKS. INSTABILITY SHOWERS
WILL CONTINUE MUCH OF THE DAY SUNDAY WITH SNOW LEVELS GRADUALLY
RISING ABOVE 7000 FEET.

WARMER WEATHER QUICKLY DEVELOPS NEXT WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
INTO THE SOUTHWEST. TEMPERATURES WILL WARM CLOSER TO NORMAL BY
MONDAY AND UP TO 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL BY THE MID TO LATTER PART
OF NEXT WEEK. A LOW CHANCE FOR SHOWERS WILL LINGER ALONG THE NEW
MEXICO BORDER THROUGH TUESDAY WITH OTHERWISE DRY WEATHER.

&&

.AVIATION...
FOR THE 00Z PACKAGE...VFR CONDITIONS WILL LINGER EAST OF
A LINE FROM KSOW TO KRQE THROUGH 01Z-03Z. OTHERWISE...WDSPRD
MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE PERIOD...WITH SCT LIFR
DEVELOPING AS COLDER AIR AND HEAVIER PRECIPITATION MOVES FROM NW TO
SE. ALL AREAS WILL BE WDSPRD MVFR/IFR WITH SCT LIFR BY 02Z-04Z.
EXPECT TO ENCOUNTER SNOW ABOVE 7000 FEET BY MID-EVENING. DAYTIME SW
SFC WINDS 15-25G30KTS TODAY. SFC SW WINDS 10-20G30KTS OVERNIGHT.
WINDS SHIFT TO NW 10-20G25KTS SUNDAY. AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT
UPDATED FOR TAF AMENDMENTS.

&&

.FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC.........TM
AVIATION.......PETERSON

FOR NORTHERN ARIZONA WEATHER INFORMATION VISIT
WEATHER.GOV/FLAGSTAFF






000
FXUS65 KFGZ 260155
AFDFGZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ
655 PM MST SAT APR 25 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE ACROSS ARIZONA THROUGH SUNDAY WITH
WINDY AND COLDER CONDITIONS...ALONG WITH RAIN AND MOUNTAIN SNOW
SHOWERS. SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR AREAS NEAR AND
ABOVE 7000 FEET. MUCH WARMER AND DRIER WEATHER WILL ARRIVE NEXT WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS DEVELOPED OVER BELLEMONT DURING THE PAST
HOUR...WITH SNOW SHOWERS CONTINUING AS OF THIS WRITING. GIVEN THE
RECENT OBSERVATIONS...UPDATED THE FORECAST TO INCLUDE SNOW
SHOWERS THIS EVENING NEAR THE FLAGSTAFF AREA. ALSO BEEFED UP
PROJECTED SNOW TOTALS AS SNOW IS BEGINNING TO ACCUMULATE. FOR NOW
THINK ONE TO FOUR INCHES OF SNOW WILL ACCUMULATE OVER AREAS ABOVE
7000 FEET TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING. MUCH HIGHER AMOUNTS ARE
FORECAST FOR MOUNTAIN PEAKS. THE UPDATED GRIDDED AND TEXT PRODUCTS
HAVE BEEN SENT.

&&

.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION /330 PM MST/...
A STRONG TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE OVER THE WESTERN USA
IS MOVING SOUTHWARD TOWARD ARIZONA THIS AFTERNOON. THE ASSOCIATED
COLD FRONT IS PUSHING ACROSS SOUTHERN NEVADA THIS AFTERNOON...AND
SHOULD ENTER FAR NORTHWESTERN ARIZONA EARLY THIS EVENING. WINDS
AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO BE STRONG AND GUSTY OUT OF THE
SOUTHWEST. SCATTERED SHOWERS OVER NORTHERN ARIZONA WILL INCREASE IN
NUMBER AND COVERAGE THIS EVENING AS THE TROUGH AND COLD FRONT PUSH
SOUTHEASTWARD TONIGHT. THUNDERSTORMS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE ALONG AND
AHEAD OF THE FRONT. MOST AREAS WILL BEGIN AS RAIN WITH HIGHER
ELEVATIONS ABOVE 6500-7000 FEET SEEING A SWITCH OVER TO SNOW BY
EARLY SUNDAY MORNING WHEN THE COLDEST AIR ARRIVES. ELEVATIONS
GENERALLY 7000 FT TO AROUND 9000 FEET ARE EXPECTED TO SEE ANYWHERE
FROM A TRACE TO 2 INCHES OF SNOWFALL DURING THE EAWRLY MORNING
HOURS...WITH HIGHER AMOUNTS OVER MOUNTAIN PEAKS. INSTABILITY SHOWERS
WILL CONTINUE MUCH OF THE DAY SUNDAY WITH SNOW LEVELS GRADUALLY
RISING ABOVE 7000 FEET.

WARMER WEATHER QUICKLY DEVELOPS NEXT WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
INTO THE SOUTHWEST. TEMPERATURES WILL WARM CLOSER TO NORMAL BY
MONDAY AND UP TO 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL BY THE MID TO LATTER PART
OF NEXT WEEK. A LOW CHANCE FOR SHOWERS WILL LINGER ALONG THE NEW
MEXICO BORDER THROUGH TUESDAY WITH OTHERWISE DRY WEATHER.

&&

.AVIATION...
FOR THE 00Z PACKAGE...VFR CONDITIONS WILL LINGER EAST OF
A LINE FROM KSOW TO KRQE THROUGH 01Z-03Z. OTHERWISE...WDSPRD
MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE PERIOD...WITH SCT LIFR
DEVELOPING AS COLDER AIR AND HEAVIER PRECIPITATION MOVES FROM NW TO
SE. ALL AREAS WILL BE WDSPRD MVFR/IFR WITH SCT LIFR BY 02Z-04Z.
EXPECT TO ENCOUNTER SNOW ABOVE 7000 FEET BY MID-EVENING. DAYTIME SW
SFC WINDS 15-25G30KTS TODAY. SFC SW WINDS 10-20G30KTS OVERNIGHT.
WINDS SHIFT TO NW 10-20G25KTS SUNDAY. AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT
UPDATED FOR TAF AMENDMENTS.

&&

.FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC.........TM
AVIATION.......PETERSON

FOR NORTHERN ARIZONA WEATHER INFORMATION VISIT
WEATHER.GOV/FLAGSTAFF





000
FXUS65 KFGZ 252231
AFDFGZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ
330 PM MST SAT APR 25 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE ACROSS ARIZONA THROUGH SUNDAY WITH
WINDY AND COLDER CONDITIONS...ALONG WITH RAIN AND MOUNTAIN SNOW
SHOWERS. SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR AREAS NEAR AND
ABOVE 7000 FEET. MUCH WARMER AND DRIER WEATHER WILL ARRIVE NEXT WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...A STRONG TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE OVER THE WESTERN USA
IS MOVING SOUTHWARD TOWARD ARIZONA THIS AFTERNOON. THE ASSOCIATED
COLD FRONT IS PUSHING ACROSS SOUTHERN NEVADA THIS AFTERNOON...AND
SHOULD ENTER FAR NORTHWESTERN ARIZONA EARLY THIS EVENING. WINDS
AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO BE STRONG AND GUSTY OUT OF THE
SOUTHWEST. SCATTERED SHOWERS OVER NORTHERN ARIZONA WILL INCREASE IN
NUMBER AND COVERAGE THIS EVENING AS THE TROUGH AND COLD FRONT PUSH
SOUTHEASTWARD TONIGHT. THUNDERSTORMS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE ALONG AND
AHEAD OF THE FRONT. MOST AREAS WILL BEGIN AS RAIN WITH HIGHER
ELEVATIONS ABOVE 6500-7000 FEET SEEING A SWITCH OVER TO SNOW BY
EARLY SUNDAY MORNING WHEN THE COLDEST AIR ARRIVES. ELEVATIONS
GENERALLY 7000 FT TO AROUND 9000 FEET ARE EXPECTED TO SEE ANYWHERE
FROM A TRACE TO 2 INCHES OF SNOWFALL DURING THE EAWRLY MORNING
HOURS...WITH HIGHER AMOUNTS OVER MOUNTAIN PEAKS. INSTABILITY SHOWERS
WILL CONTINUE MUCH OF THE DAY SUNDAY WITH SNOW LEVELS GRADUALLY
RISING ABOVE 7000 FEET.

WARMER WEATHER QUICKLY DEVELOPS NEXT WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
INTO THE SOUTHWEST. TEMPERATURES WILL WARM CLOSER TO NORMAL BY
MONDAY AND UP TO 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL BY THE MID TO LATTER PART
OF NEXT WEEK. A LOW CHANCE FOR SHOWERS WILL LINGER ALONG THE NEW
MEXICO BORDER THROUGH TUESDAY WITH OTHERWISE DRY WEATHER.

&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 00Z PACKAGE...VFR CONDITIONS WILL LINGER EAST OF
A LINE FROM KSOW TO KRQE THROUGH 01Z-03Z. OTHERWISE...WDSPRD
MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE PERIOD...WITH SCT LIFR
DEVELOPING AS COLDER AIR AND HEAVIER PRECIPITATION MOVES FROM NW TO
SE. ALL AREAS WILL BE WDSPRD MVFR/IFR WITH SCT LIFR BY 02Z-04Z.
EXPECT TO ENCOUNTER SNOW ABOVE 7000 FEET BY MID-EVENING. DAYTIME SW
SFC WINDS 15-25G30KTS TODAY. SFC SW WINDS 10-20G30KTS OVERNIGHT.
WINDS SHIFT TO NW 10-20G25KTS SUNDAY. AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT
UPDATED FOR TAF AMENDMENTS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...A STRONG AND COLD STORM SYSTEM WILL MOVE THROUGH THE
DISTRICT TONIGHT AND SUNDAY. EXPECT GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS INTO THE
EVENING HOURS. AREAS OF RAIN SHOWERS WILL EXPAND IN COVERAGE AND
SPREAD FROM WEST TO EAST THIS EVENING. WIDESPREAD RAIN AND HIGH
ELEVATION SNOWFALL...WITH ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS...WILL PERSIST
THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON. NEARLY ALL OF THE DISTRICT WILL SEE
WETTING RAINFALL. A WIND SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST WILL DEVELOP BEHIND
THE FRONT SUNDAY MORNING...THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. ON MONDAY...DRY
WEATHER RETURNS WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF LIGHT SHOWERS LINGERING
ACROSS APACHE COUNTY. GUSTY NORTH TO NORTHEAST WINDS WILL LINGER
THROUGH THE DAY.

TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...EXPECT MUCH LESS WIND...WITH WARM AND DRY
CONDITIONS THROUGH THIS PERIOD.

&&

.FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC.........MAS
AVIATION.......PETERSON
FIRE WEATHER...PETERSON

FOR NORTHERN ARIZONA WEATHER INFORMATION VISIT
WEATHER.GOV/FLAGSTAFF








000
FXUS65 KFGZ 252231
AFDFGZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ
330 PM MST SAT APR 25 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE ACROSS ARIZONA THROUGH SUNDAY WITH
WINDY AND COLDER CONDITIONS...ALONG WITH RAIN AND MOUNTAIN SNOW
SHOWERS. SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR AREAS NEAR AND
ABOVE 7000 FEET. MUCH WARMER AND DRIER WEATHER WILL ARRIVE NEXT WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...A STRONG TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE OVER THE WESTERN USA
IS MOVING SOUTHWARD TOWARD ARIZONA THIS AFTERNOON. THE ASSOCIATED
COLD FRONT IS PUSHING ACROSS SOUTHERN NEVADA THIS AFTERNOON...AND
SHOULD ENTER FAR NORTHWESTERN ARIZONA EARLY THIS EVENING. WINDS
AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO BE STRONG AND GUSTY OUT OF THE
SOUTHWEST. SCATTERED SHOWERS OVER NORTHERN ARIZONA WILL INCREASE IN
NUMBER AND COVERAGE THIS EVENING AS THE TROUGH AND COLD FRONT PUSH
SOUTHEASTWARD TONIGHT. THUNDERSTORMS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE ALONG AND
AHEAD OF THE FRONT. MOST AREAS WILL BEGIN AS RAIN WITH HIGHER
ELEVATIONS ABOVE 6500-7000 FEET SEEING A SWITCH OVER TO SNOW BY
EARLY SUNDAY MORNING WHEN THE COLDEST AIR ARRIVES. ELEVATIONS
GENERALLY 7000 FT TO AROUND 9000 FEET ARE EXPECTED TO SEE ANYWHERE
FROM A TRACE TO 2 INCHES OF SNOWFALL DURING THE EAWRLY MORNING
HOURS...WITH HIGHER AMOUNTS OVER MOUNTAIN PEAKS. INSTABILITY SHOWERS
WILL CONTINUE MUCH OF THE DAY SUNDAY WITH SNOW LEVELS GRADUALLY
RISING ABOVE 7000 FEET.

WARMER WEATHER QUICKLY DEVELOPS NEXT WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
INTO THE SOUTHWEST. TEMPERATURES WILL WARM CLOSER TO NORMAL BY
MONDAY AND UP TO 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL BY THE MID TO LATTER PART
OF NEXT WEEK. A LOW CHANCE FOR SHOWERS WILL LINGER ALONG THE NEW
MEXICO BORDER THROUGH TUESDAY WITH OTHERWISE DRY WEATHER.

&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 00Z PACKAGE...VFR CONDITIONS WILL LINGER EAST OF
A LINE FROM KSOW TO KRQE THROUGH 01Z-03Z. OTHERWISE...WDSPRD
MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE PERIOD...WITH SCT LIFR
DEVELOPING AS COLDER AIR AND HEAVIER PRECIPITATION MOVES FROM NW TO
SE. ALL AREAS WILL BE WDSPRD MVFR/IFR WITH SCT LIFR BY 02Z-04Z.
EXPECT TO ENCOUNTER SNOW ABOVE 7000 FEET BY MID-EVENING. DAYTIME SW
SFC WINDS 15-25G30KTS TODAY. SFC SW WINDS 10-20G30KTS OVERNIGHT.
WINDS SHIFT TO NW 10-20G25KTS SUNDAY. AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT
UPDATED FOR TAF AMENDMENTS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...A STRONG AND COLD STORM SYSTEM WILL MOVE THROUGH THE
DISTRICT TONIGHT AND SUNDAY. EXPECT GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS INTO THE
EVENING HOURS. AREAS OF RAIN SHOWERS WILL EXPAND IN COVERAGE AND
SPREAD FROM WEST TO EAST THIS EVENING. WIDESPREAD RAIN AND HIGH
ELEVATION SNOWFALL...WITH ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS...WILL PERSIST
THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON. NEARLY ALL OF THE DISTRICT WILL SEE
WETTING RAINFALL. A WIND SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST WILL DEVELOP BEHIND
THE FRONT SUNDAY MORNING...THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. ON MONDAY...DRY
WEATHER RETURNS WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF LIGHT SHOWERS LINGERING
ACROSS APACHE COUNTY. GUSTY NORTH TO NORTHEAST WINDS WILL LINGER
THROUGH THE DAY.

TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...EXPECT MUCH LESS WIND...WITH WARM AND DRY
CONDITIONS THROUGH THIS PERIOD.

&&

.FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC.........MAS
AVIATION.......PETERSON
FIRE WEATHER...PETERSON

FOR NORTHERN ARIZONA WEATHER INFORMATION VISIT
WEATHER.GOV/FLAGSTAFF








000
FXUS65 KFGZ 252231
AFDFGZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ
330 PM MST SAT APR 25 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE ACROSS ARIZONA THROUGH SUNDAY WITH
WINDY AND COLDER CONDITIONS...ALONG WITH RAIN AND MOUNTAIN SNOW
SHOWERS. SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR AREAS NEAR AND
ABOVE 7000 FEET. MUCH WARMER AND DRIER WEATHER WILL ARRIVE NEXT WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...A STRONG TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE OVER THE WESTERN USA
IS MOVING SOUTHWARD TOWARD ARIZONA THIS AFTERNOON. THE ASSOCIATED
COLD FRONT IS PUSHING ACROSS SOUTHERN NEVADA THIS AFTERNOON...AND
SHOULD ENTER FAR NORTHWESTERN ARIZONA EARLY THIS EVENING. WINDS
AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO BE STRONG AND GUSTY OUT OF THE
SOUTHWEST. SCATTERED SHOWERS OVER NORTHERN ARIZONA WILL INCREASE IN
NUMBER AND COVERAGE THIS EVENING AS THE TROUGH AND COLD FRONT PUSH
SOUTHEASTWARD TONIGHT. THUNDERSTORMS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE ALONG AND
AHEAD OF THE FRONT. MOST AREAS WILL BEGIN AS RAIN WITH HIGHER
ELEVATIONS ABOVE 6500-7000 FEET SEEING A SWITCH OVER TO SNOW BY
EARLY SUNDAY MORNING WHEN THE COLDEST AIR ARRIVES. ELEVATIONS
GENERALLY 7000 FT TO AROUND 9000 FEET ARE EXPECTED TO SEE ANYWHERE
FROM A TRACE TO 2 INCHES OF SNOWFALL DURING THE EAWRLY MORNING
HOURS...WITH HIGHER AMOUNTS OVER MOUNTAIN PEAKS. INSTABILITY SHOWERS
WILL CONTINUE MUCH OF THE DAY SUNDAY WITH SNOW LEVELS GRADUALLY
RISING ABOVE 7000 FEET.

WARMER WEATHER QUICKLY DEVELOPS NEXT WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
INTO THE SOUTHWEST. TEMPERATURES WILL WARM CLOSER TO NORMAL BY
MONDAY AND UP TO 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL BY THE MID TO LATTER PART
OF NEXT WEEK. A LOW CHANCE FOR SHOWERS WILL LINGER ALONG THE NEW
MEXICO BORDER THROUGH TUESDAY WITH OTHERWISE DRY WEATHER.

&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 00Z PACKAGE...VFR CONDITIONS WILL LINGER EAST OF
A LINE FROM KSOW TO KRQE THROUGH 01Z-03Z. OTHERWISE...WDSPRD
MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE PERIOD...WITH SCT LIFR
DEVELOPING AS COLDER AIR AND HEAVIER PRECIPITATION MOVES FROM NW TO
SE. ALL AREAS WILL BE WDSPRD MVFR/IFR WITH SCT LIFR BY 02Z-04Z.
EXPECT TO ENCOUNTER SNOW ABOVE 7000 FEET BY MID-EVENING. DAYTIME SW
SFC WINDS 15-25G30KTS TODAY. SFC SW WINDS 10-20G30KTS OVERNIGHT.
WINDS SHIFT TO NW 10-20G25KTS SUNDAY. AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT
UPDATED FOR TAF AMENDMENTS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...A STRONG AND COLD STORM SYSTEM WILL MOVE THROUGH THE
DISTRICT TONIGHT AND SUNDAY. EXPECT GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS INTO THE
EVENING HOURS. AREAS OF RAIN SHOWERS WILL EXPAND IN COVERAGE AND
SPREAD FROM WEST TO EAST THIS EVENING. WIDESPREAD RAIN AND HIGH
ELEVATION SNOWFALL...WITH ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS...WILL PERSIST
THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON. NEARLY ALL OF THE DISTRICT WILL SEE
WETTING RAINFALL. A WIND SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST WILL DEVELOP BEHIND
THE FRONT SUNDAY MORNING...THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. ON MONDAY...DRY
WEATHER RETURNS WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF LIGHT SHOWERS LINGERING
ACROSS APACHE COUNTY. GUSTY NORTH TO NORTHEAST WINDS WILL LINGER
THROUGH THE DAY.

TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...EXPECT MUCH LESS WIND...WITH WARM AND DRY
CONDITIONS THROUGH THIS PERIOD.

&&

.FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC.........MAS
AVIATION.......PETERSON
FIRE WEATHER...PETERSON

FOR NORTHERN ARIZONA WEATHER INFORMATION VISIT
WEATHER.GOV/FLAGSTAFF








000
FXUS65 KFGZ 252231
AFDFGZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ
330 PM MST SAT APR 25 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE ACROSS ARIZONA THROUGH SUNDAY WITH
WINDY AND COLDER CONDITIONS...ALONG WITH RAIN AND MOUNTAIN SNOW
SHOWERS. SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR AREAS NEAR AND
ABOVE 7000 FEET. MUCH WARMER AND DRIER WEATHER WILL ARRIVE NEXT WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...A STRONG TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE OVER THE WESTERN USA
IS MOVING SOUTHWARD TOWARD ARIZONA THIS AFTERNOON. THE ASSOCIATED
COLD FRONT IS PUSHING ACROSS SOUTHERN NEVADA THIS AFTERNOON...AND
SHOULD ENTER FAR NORTHWESTERN ARIZONA EARLY THIS EVENING. WINDS
AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO BE STRONG AND GUSTY OUT OF THE
SOUTHWEST. SCATTERED SHOWERS OVER NORTHERN ARIZONA WILL INCREASE IN
NUMBER AND COVERAGE THIS EVENING AS THE TROUGH AND COLD FRONT PUSH
SOUTHEASTWARD TONIGHT. THUNDERSTORMS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE ALONG AND
AHEAD OF THE FRONT. MOST AREAS WILL BEGIN AS RAIN WITH HIGHER
ELEVATIONS ABOVE 6500-7000 FEET SEEING A SWITCH OVER TO SNOW BY
EARLY SUNDAY MORNING WHEN THE COLDEST AIR ARRIVES. ELEVATIONS
GENERALLY 7000 FT TO AROUND 9000 FEET ARE EXPECTED TO SEE ANYWHERE
FROM A TRACE TO 2 INCHES OF SNOWFALL DURING THE EAWRLY MORNING
HOURS...WITH HIGHER AMOUNTS OVER MOUNTAIN PEAKS. INSTABILITY SHOWERS
WILL CONTINUE MUCH OF THE DAY SUNDAY WITH SNOW LEVELS GRADUALLY
RISING ABOVE 7000 FEET.

WARMER WEATHER QUICKLY DEVELOPS NEXT WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
INTO THE SOUTHWEST. TEMPERATURES WILL WARM CLOSER TO NORMAL BY
MONDAY AND UP TO 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL BY THE MID TO LATTER PART
OF NEXT WEEK. A LOW CHANCE FOR SHOWERS WILL LINGER ALONG THE NEW
MEXICO BORDER THROUGH TUESDAY WITH OTHERWISE DRY WEATHER.

&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 00Z PACKAGE...VFR CONDITIONS WILL LINGER EAST OF
A LINE FROM KSOW TO KRQE THROUGH 01Z-03Z. OTHERWISE...WDSPRD
MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE PERIOD...WITH SCT LIFR
DEVELOPING AS COLDER AIR AND HEAVIER PRECIPITATION MOVES FROM NW TO
SE. ALL AREAS WILL BE WDSPRD MVFR/IFR WITH SCT LIFR BY 02Z-04Z.
EXPECT TO ENCOUNTER SNOW ABOVE 7000 FEET BY MID-EVENING. DAYTIME SW
SFC WINDS 15-25G30KTS TODAY. SFC SW WINDS 10-20G30KTS OVERNIGHT.
WINDS SHIFT TO NW 10-20G25KTS SUNDAY. AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT
UPDATED FOR TAF AMENDMENTS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...A STRONG AND COLD STORM SYSTEM WILL MOVE THROUGH THE
DISTRICT TONIGHT AND SUNDAY. EXPECT GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS INTO THE
EVENING HOURS. AREAS OF RAIN SHOWERS WILL EXPAND IN COVERAGE AND
SPREAD FROM WEST TO EAST THIS EVENING. WIDESPREAD RAIN AND HIGH
ELEVATION SNOWFALL...WITH ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS...WILL PERSIST
THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON. NEARLY ALL OF THE DISTRICT WILL SEE
WETTING RAINFALL. A WIND SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST WILL DEVELOP BEHIND
THE FRONT SUNDAY MORNING...THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. ON MONDAY...DRY
WEATHER RETURNS WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF LIGHT SHOWERS LINGERING
ACROSS APACHE COUNTY. GUSTY NORTH TO NORTHEAST WINDS WILL LINGER
THROUGH THE DAY.

TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...EXPECT MUCH LESS WIND...WITH WARM AND DRY
CONDITIONS THROUGH THIS PERIOD.

&&

.FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC.........MAS
AVIATION.......PETERSON
FIRE WEATHER...PETERSON

FOR NORTHERN ARIZONA WEATHER INFORMATION VISIT
WEATHER.GOV/FLAGSTAFF








000
FXUS65 KTWC 252227
AFDTWC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ
327 PM MST SAT APR 25 2015

.SYNOPSIS...GUSTY AFTERNOON WINDS WILL OCCUR TODAY FOLLOWED BY A
GOOD CHANCE OF SHOWERS TONIGHT AND SUNDAY AS A VIGOROUS LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM MOVES ACROSS THE FOUR CORNERS REGION. COOLER TEMPERATURES
WILL ALSO OCCUR SUNDAY. A FEW LINGERING SHOWERS MAY OCCUR ACROSS THE
WHITE MOUNTAINS MONDAY AND TUESDAY. OTHERWISE...DRY CONDITIONS WITH
A STRONG WARMING TREND WILL PREVAIL MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND 25/12Z UPPER-AIR PLOTS SHOW
WEAK RIDGING TO OUR EAST WITH AN APPROACHING TROUGH OVER SOUTH
CENTRAL CALIFORNIA. VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A CUMULUS FIELD
FROM TUCSON NORTH AND EAST...WITH MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES ELSEWHERE.
FARTHER TO THE WEST THROUGH NORTHEAST EXTENSIVE CLOUDINESS AHEAD OF
THIS TROUGH COVERS MUCH OF CALIFORNIA...NEVADA...UTAH AND PARTS OF
NORTHERN ARIZONA...NORTHWEST NEW MEXICO AND WESTERN COLORADO.

MODELS INDICATE THAT THE AFOREMENTIONED TROUGH WILL MAKE ITS WAY
INTO WESTERN ARIZONA LATE THIS EVENING...THEN OVER THE FOUR CORNERS
REGION BY MIDDAY SUNDAY...AND OVER NORTHEAST NEW MEXICO AND THE
TEXAS PANHANDLE BY LATE SUNDAY EVENING. THIS SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO
BRING A THREAT FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE REGION MAINLY
DURING THE OVERNIGHT AND EARLY MORNING HOURS SUNDAY FOR MY FORECAST
AREA. HOWEVER...IT LOOKS LIKE THE BEST THREAT WILL OCCUR OVER THE
NORTHERN FRINGES OF MY FORECAST AREA FROM TUCSON NORTH INTO PINAL
COUNTY AND NORTHEAST INTO THE WHITE MOUNTAINS OF NORTHERN GRAHAM AND
GREENLEE COUNTIES. COLDER AIR ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL ALLOW
SNOW LEVELS TO FALL TO AROUND 7000-7500 FEET EARLY SUNDAY. AS A
RESULT EXPECT SEVERAL INCHES OF SNOW ACROSS THE WHITE MOUNTAINS
WHERE AROUND 4 TO 7 INCHES OF SNOW IS POSSIBLE. AROUND 2 TO 4 INCHES
OF SNOW IS POSSIBLE OVER THE SANTA CATALINAS AND RINCONS OF EASTERN
PIMA COUNTY AND THE GALIURO AND PINALENO MOUNTAINS OF GRAHAM COUNTY.

THE SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO EXIT TO THE EAST INTO THE CENTRAL AND
SOUTHERN PLAINS MONDAY BUT THE TAIL END OF THIS SYSTEM WILL LINGER
BACK ACROSS PARTS OF THE DESERT SOUTHWEST. A SHARP MOISTURE GRADIENT
IS ADVERTISED BY THE MODELS TO BE RIGHT ALONG THE AZ/NM BORDER
MONDAY INTO TUESDAY RESULTING IN LINGERING ISOLATED SHOWERS...MAINLY
OVER THE WHITE MOUNTAINS...BUT DRY ELSEWHERE.

BEHIND THIS SYSTEM RIDGING WILL NOSE IN ACROSS SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA
AND THE GREAT BASIN LATE TUESDAY AND OVER ARIZONA ON WEDNESDAY AND
CONTINUING INTO THURSDAY. BEYOND THURSDAY MODELS SHOW SIGNIFICANT
DISCREPANCIES...SO DID NOT MAKE ANY CHANGES TO THE FORECAST...
ALTHOUGH AT THIS TIME IT LOOKS LIKE A DRY FORECAST IS IN STORE
REGARDLESS OF THE UNCERTAINTY AMONG THE MODELS.

&&

.AVIATION...VALID THRU 26/18Z. FEW-SCT CLOUDS AROUND 8-10K FT AGL
WILL PREVAIL THRU THIS AFTERNOON...WITH SCT-BKN CLOUDS AROUND 20K FT
AGL. SURFACE WIND WLY/SWLY AT 15-25 KTS WITH GUSTS OF 25-35 KTS. THE
STRONGEST WINDS SHOULD OCCUR SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST OF KTUS THIS
AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY IN THE VICINITY OF KALK AND KDUG. WINDS WILL
DECREASE TO GENERALLY LESS THAN 15 KTS WITH A FEW GUSTS TO AROUND 20
KTS AFTER 26/03Z. INCREASING CLOUDS AND LOWERING CLOUD HEIGHTS THIS
EVENING WILL GIVE WAY TO CHANCES OF -SHRA LATE TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY.
RAIN CHANCES WILL BE BEST TO THE NORTH OF A KTUS-KSAD LINE. AVIATION
DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR TAF AMENDMENTS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...GUSTY WEST TO SOUTHWEST WINDS AT 15-25 MPH AND A FEW
GUSTS TO AROUND 40 MPH WILL OCCUR THIS AFTERNOON FOLLOWED BY A
CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY. THE
STRONGEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED IN THE SOUTHEAST CORNER OF THE
STATE...WHILE SHOWER CHANCES ARE BEST NORTH OF A LINE FROM ABOUT
TUCSON TO SAFFORD. ANY SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF
PRODUCING BRIEF GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS. SOME SPOTTY AND MARGINAL
RED FLAG CONDITIONS MAY OCCUR THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS THE EXTREME
SOUTHEAST CORNER OF COCHISE COUNTY...WITH HUMIDITY LEVELS HOVERING
RIGHT AROUND 15 PCT.

ANOTHER ROUND OF GUSTY WINDS IS EXPECTED SUNDAY AFTERNOON...WITH
SOME AREAS ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST CORNER OF THE STATE APPROACHING WIND
ADVISORY CRITERIA. A FEW LINGERING SHOWERS MAY PREVAIL ACROSS THE
WHITE MOUNTAINS MONDAY AND TUESDAY. OTHERWISE...EXPECT DRY
CONDITIONS WITH A PRONOUNCED WARMING TREND MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.

&&

.TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

MOLLERE

VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...YOUTUBE...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/TUCSON



000
FXUS65 KTWC 252227
AFDTWC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ
327 PM MST SAT APR 25 2015

.SYNOPSIS...GUSTY AFTERNOON WINDS WILL OCCUR TODAY FOLLOWED BY A
GOOD CHANCE OF SHOWERS TONIGHT AND SUNDAY AS A VIGOROUS LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM MOVES ACROSS THE FOUR CORNERS REGION. COOLER TEMPERATURES
WILL ALSO OCCUR SUNDAY. A FEW LINGERING SHOWERS MAY OCCUR ACROSS THE
WHITE MOUNTAINS MONDAY AND TUESDAY. OTHERWISE...DRY CONDITIONS WITH
A STRONG WARMING TREND WILL PREVAIL MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND 25/12Z UPPER-AIR PLOTS SHOW
WEAK RIDGING TO OUR EAST WITH AN APPROACHING TROUGH OVER SOUTH
CENTRAL CALIFORNIA. VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A CUMULUS FIELD
FROM TUCSON NORTH AND EAST...WITH MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES ELSEWHERE.
FARTHER TO THE WEST THROUGH NORTHEAST EXTENSIVE CLOUDINESS AHEAD OF
THIS TROUGH COVERS MUCH OF CALIFORNIA...NEVADA...UTAH AND PARTS OF
NORTHERN ARIZONA...NORTHWEST NEW MEXICO AND WESTERN COLORADO.

MODELS INDICATE THAT THE AFOREMENTIONED TROUGH WILL MAKE ITS WAY
INTO WESTERN ARIZONA LATE THIS EVENING...THEN OVER THE FOUR CORNERS
REGION BY MIDDAY SUNDAY...AND OVER NORTHEAST NEW MEXICO AND THE
TEXAS PANHANDLE BY LATE SUNDAY EVENING. THIS SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO
BRING A THREAT FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE REGION MAINLY
DURING THE OVERNIGHT AND EARLY MORNING HOURS SUNDAY FOR MY FORECAST
AREA. HOWEVER...IT LOOKS LIKE THE BEST THREAT WILL OCCUR OVER THE
NORTHERN FRINGES OF MY FORECAST AREA FROM TUCSON NORTH INTO PINAL
COUNTY AND NORTHEAST INTO THE WHITE MOUNTAINS OF NORTHERN GRAHAM AND
GREENLEE COUNTIES. COLDER AIR ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL ALLOW
SNOW LEVELS TO FALL TO AROUND 7000-7500 FEET EARLY SUNDAY. AS A
RESULT EXPECT SEVERAL INCHES OF SNOW ACROSS THE WHITE MOUNTAINS
WHERE AROUND 4 TO 7 INCHES OF SNOW IS POSSIBLE. AROUND 2 TO 4 INCHES
OF SNOW IS POSSIBLE OVER THE SANTA CATALINAS AND RINCONS OF EASTERN
PIMA COUNTY AND THE GALIURO AND PINALENO MOUNTAINS OF GRAHAM COUNTY.

THE SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO EXIT TO THE EAST INTO THE CENTRAL AND
SOUTHERN PLAINS MONDAY BUT THE TAIL END OF THIS SYSTEM WILL LINGER
BACK ACROSS PARTS OF THE DESERT SOUTHWEST. A SHARP MOISTURE GRADIENT
IS ADVERTISED BY THE MODELS TO BE RIGHT ALONG THE AZ/NM BORDER
MONDAY INTO TUESDAY RESULTING IN LINGERING ISOLATED SHOWERS...MAINLY
OVER THE WHITE MOUNTAINS...BUT DRY ELSEWHERE.

BEHIND THIS SYSTEM RIDGING WILL NOSE IN ACROSS SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA
AND THE GREAT BASIN LATE TUESDAY AND OVER ARIZONA ON WEDNESDAY AND
CONTINUING INTO THURSDAY. BEYOND THURSDAY MODELS SHOW SIGNIFICANT
DISCREPANCIES...SO DID NOT MAKE ANY CHANGES TO THE FORECAST...
ALTHOUGH AT THIS TIME IT LOOKS LIKE A DRY FORECAST IS IN STORE
REGARDLESS OF THE UNCERTAINTY AMONG THE MODELS.

&&

.AVIATION...VALID THRU 26/18Z. FEW-SCT CLOUDS AROUND 8-10K FT AGL
WILL PREVAIL THRU THIS AFTERNOON...WITH SCT-BKN CLOUDS AROUND 20K FT
AGL. SURFACE WIND WLY/SWLY AT 15-25 KTS WITH GUSTS OF 25-35 KTS. THE
STRONGEST WINDS SHOULD OCCUR SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST OF KTUS THIS
AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY IN THE VICINITY OF KALK AND KDUG. WINDS WILL
DECREASE TO GENERALLY LESS THAN 15 KTS WITH A FEW GUSTS TO AROUND 20
KTS AFTER 26/03Z. INCREASING CLOUDS AND LOWERING CLOUD HEIGHTS THIS
EVENING WILL GIVE WAY TO CHANCES OF -SHRA LATE TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY.
RAIN CHANCES WILL BE BEST TO THE NORTH OF A KTUS-KSAD LINE. AVIATION
DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR TAF AMENDMENTS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...GUSTY WEST TO SOUTHWEST WINDS AT 15-25 MPH AND A FEW
GUSTS TO AROUND 40 MPH WILL OCCUR THIS AFTERNOON FOLLOWED BY A
CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY. THE
STRONGEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED IN THE SOUTHEAST CORNER OF THE
STATE...WHILE SHOWER CHANCES ARE BEST NORTH OF A LINE FROM ABOUT
TUCSON TO SAFFORD. ANY SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF
PRODUCING BRIEF GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS. SOME SPOTTY AND MARGINAL
RED FLAG CONDITIONS MAY OCCUR THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS THE EXTREME
SOUTHEAST CORNER OF COCHISE COUNTY...WITH HUMIDITY LEVELS HOVERING
RIGHT AROUND 15 PCT.

ANOTHER ROUND OF GUSTY WINDS IS EXPECTED SUNDAY AFTERNOON...WITH
SOME AREAS ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST CORNER OF THE STATE APPROACHING WIND
ADVISORY CRITERIA. A FEW LINGERING SHOWERS MAY PREVAIL ACROSS THE
WHITE MOUNTAINS MONDAY AND TUESDAY. OTHERWISE...EXPECT DRY
CONDITIONS WITH A PRONOUNCED WARMING TREND MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.

&&

.TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

MOLLERE

VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...YOUTUBE...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/TUCSON




000
FXUS65 KPSR 252133
AFDPSR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PHOENIX AZ
233 PM MST SAT APR 25 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION EARLY TONIGHT
BRINGING GUSTY WINDS AND GOOD CHANCES FOR RAIN. CHANCES FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL INCREASE THIS EVENING AND INTO
TONIGHT...BUT MAINLY ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH CENTRAL
ARIZONA. LINGERING SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED SUNDAY OVER EASTERN
ARIZONA...WITH CLEARING OVER SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA AND SOUTHWEST
ARIZONA. DRIER AND MUCH WARMER WEATHER IS EXPECTED NEXT WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

...POTENT UPPER TROUGH AND FRONTAL PASSAGE ACROSS THE REGION THIS
EVENING AND TONIGHT WITH STRONG GUSTY WINDS AND THUNDERSTORM
CHANCES...

TODAY THUS FAR HAS BEEN FAIRLY QUIET ACROSS THE AREA EXCEPT FOR SOME
LIGHT SHOWERS PASSING THROUGH RIVERSIDE AND LA PAZ COUNTIES WITH
SOME RECENT DEVELOPMENT JUST TO OUR NORTH IN YAVAPAI COUNTY. THESE
SHOWERS WERE IN RESPONSE TO A WEAKENING SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING INTO
CENTRAL ARIZONA OUT AHEAD OF THE MAIN TROUGH THAT WILL AFFECT THE
AREA LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT. CURRENT WATER VAPOR AND UPPER HEIGHT
ANALYSIS SHOWS A RATHER IMPRESSIVE UPPER TROUGH APPROACHING FROM THE
NORTHWEST WITH THE MAIN SHORTWAVE TROUGH JUST WEST OF LAS VEGAS.
DIFLUENT FLOW ALOFT OVER SOUTHERN NEVADA AND UTAH ALONG WITH STRONG
500MB HEIGHT FALLS CENTERED OVER THE SIERRAS ARE HELPING TO SPARK
OFF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. WINDS AHEAD OF AN ADVANCING
COLD FRONT HAVE BECOME GUSTY ACROSS SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA WITH SOME
GUSTS TO AROUND 35 KNOTS. AS THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH THIS
EVENING...CAN EXPECT SOME WIND GUSTS UP TO 40-45 KNOTS IN SOME
LOCALIZED SPOTS ALONG WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME BLOWING DUST.

THE MAIN SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND COLD FRONT WILL QUICKLY DIVE
SOUTHEASTWARD THROUGH THE REST OF TODAY...REACHING SOUTH-CENTRAL
ARIZONA AROUND 06Z THIS EVENING. STILL EXPECTING SCATTERED TO
WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP AHEAD OF THESE
FEATURES DURING THE EVENING TIME FRAME WITH BEST CHANCES STRETCHING
FROM NORTHERN LA PAZ COUNTY THROUGH MUCH OF MARICOPA COUNTY...INTO
SOUTHERN GILA COUNTY. CONDITIONS REMAIN RATHER MOIST BETWEEN 8-10K
FEET...BUT FURTHER MOISTENING IN THE MID LEVELS WILL OCCUR AS THE
TROUGH AND COLDER AIR MOVES IN FROM THE NORTHWEST. THE MOIST
CONDITIONS...WEAK UPSLOPE LOW LEVEL FLOW...AND STRONG FORECAST MODEL
OMEGA FOR THIS EVENING ACROSS SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA...WILL ALL COME
INTO PLAY TO AID IN SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT. STRONGER
SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO BRING SOME GUSTY
WINDS DOWN TO THE SURFACE...SO SOME STRONGER SUB-SEVERE GUSTS ARE
POSSIBLE.

BY SUNDAY MORNING...THE MAIN SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL BE MOVING INTO
WESTERN NEW MEXICO WITH SUBSIDENCE ALOFT WORKING INTO OUR WESTERN
ZONES. CHANCES FOR LINGERING SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH SUNDAY
MORNING FROM AROUND PHOENIX EASTWARD WITH BEST CHANCES OVER THE
HIGHER TERRAIN OF EAST-CENTRAL ARIZONA. BY MID TO LATE SUNDAY
AFTERNOON...THE DRIER AIR BEHIND THE TROUGH WILL HAVE MIXED OUT THE
LOW LEVELS ENOUGH TO BASICALLY KEEP ANY REMAINING SHOWER CHANCES
OVER HIGHER TERRAIN AREAS. OUR WESTERN ZONES SHOULD CLEAR OUT FAIRLY
QUICKLY ON SUNDAY WITH HIGHS REBOUNDING BACK INTO THE LOW TO MID
80S. ELSEWHERE...TEMPERATURES SHOULD ONLY PEAK OUT IN THE UPPER 70S
ACROSS THE SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA DESERTS.

FOR THE COMING WORK WEEK...A LARGE RIDGE IS FORECAST TO TAKE OVER
WITH DRY CONDITIONS AND WARMING TEMPERATURES. HIGHS BY MONDAY SHOULD
REACH NEAR NORMALS AND ONCE THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE FINALLY TAKES
OVER...TEMPERATURES WILL HEAT UP EVEN MORE WITH FORECAST HIGHS IN
THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 90S FOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY ACROSS THE
DESERTS. THOUGH THERE ARE SOME MODEL DIFFERENCES BEYOND NEXT
THURSDAY...THE GENERAL CONSENSUS IS THAT LARGE SCALE TROUGHING WILL
PUSH THE RIDGE OUT THE REGION ALLOWING FOR SOME MODERATION IN
TEMPERATURES...BUT CONTINUING WITH THE DRY CONDITIONS.

&&

AVIATION...

SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA INCLUDING KPHX...KIWA...AND KSDL...
APPROACHING UPPER-LEVEL LOW CENTER...AND ASSOCIATED SFC FRONT IS
STILL EXPECTED TO BRING STRONG...AND GUSTY WINDS TO THE PHX AREA
TERMINALS THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING AS SFC PRESSURE GRADIENTS INCREASE
OVER THE REGION. SUSTAINED WINDS...FROM A WESTERLY DIRECTION...ARE
EXPECTED TO INCREASE INTO THE 20-25KT RANGE...WITH GUSTS IN THE 30-
35KT RANGE BY THIS EVENING...WITH PERHAPS A SHORT BURST OF EVEN
STRONGER WINDS FOR A HOUR OR SO AROUND 02-03Z AS THE SFC FRONT
PASSES. ALONG WITH THE WINDS...SCATTERED-NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND FEW
THUNDERSTORMS ARE ALSO EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ALONG/JUST AHEAD OF THE
FROM...WITH ENOUGH CONFIDENCE TO INCLUDE THEM IN THE TAFS BETWEEN
06Z AND 12Z. DRIER AIR PUSHING IN FROM THE WEST WILL THEN CLEAR
SKIES FAIRLY RAPIDLY SUNDAY MORNING AS THE MAIN UL TROF MOVES OFF TO
THE EAST. GUSTY WESTERLY WINDS TO REDEVELOP SUN AFTERNOON AS SFC
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE GREAT BASIN KEEPS SFC PRESSURE GRADIENTS
RATHER TIGHT OVER THE REGION.

SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA AND SOUTHWEST ARIZONA INCLUDING KIPL AND
KBLH... APPROACHING UL TROUGH WILL KEEP STRONG WESTERLY WINDS GOING
ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS...WITH GUSTS AS HIGH AS
40KT EARLY THIS EVENING. PERIODS OF BLOWING DUST REDUCING VISIBILITY
DOWN TO 2SM WILL BE COMMON WITH THE STRONGER WINDS...ESPECIALLY
ACROSS IMPERIAL COUNTY AND NEAR YUMA. 18Z TAFS TAKE AIRFIELD VSBYS
DOWN TO 5SM BUT CANNOT RULE OUT LOCALLY LOWER VALUES FOR SHORTER
PERIODS. SLANT VSBYS LIKELY IMPACTED DUE TO LOFTED DUST. THE
STRONGEST WINDS TO ABATE LATER INTO THE EVENING BUT REMAIN ELEVATED
IN THE 10-15KT RANGE WITH GUSTS STILL TOWARDS 20KTS. STRONGER WINDS
TO RETURN SUN AFTERNOON AS SFC HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE GREAT BASIN
KEEPS SFC PRESSURE GRADIENTS RATHER TIGHT OVER THE REGION.

AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDED TAFS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...
IN THE WAKE OF THE DEPARTING TROUGH...NEXT WEEK WILL SEE THE ARRIVAL
OF A STRONG UPPER RIDGE OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN CONUS FROM MONDAY
THROUGH MOST OF THE WEEK. TEMPERATURES WILL WARM SUBSTANTIALLY AND
APPROACH THE TRIPLE DIGIT MARK FOR THE LATTER PART OF THE WEEK.
AFTERNOON HUMIDITIES WILL DROP INTO THE LOWER TEENS AND UPPER SINGLE
DIGITS WITH FAIR OVERNIGHT RECOVERIES EXPECTED. WINDS WILL BE GNLY
LIGHT AND SHOULD FOLLOW TYPICAL DIURNAL PATTERNS.

&&

.PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AZ...NONE.

CA...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM PDT TODAY FOR CAZ030>033.

&&

$$

VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/PHOENIX

DISCUSSION...KUHLMAN
AVIATION...NOLTE
FIRE WEATHER...NOLTE/LEINS



000
FXUS65 KPSR 252133
AFDPSR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PHOENIX AZ
233 PM MST SAT APR 25 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION EARLY TONIGHT
BRINGING GUSTY WINDS AND GOOD CHANCES FOR RAIN. CHANCES FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL INCREASE THIS EVENING AND INTO
TONIGHT...BUT MAINLY ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH CENTRAL
ARIZONA. LINGERING SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED SUNDAY OVER EASTERN
ARIZONA...WITH CLEARING OVER SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA AND SOUTHWEST
ARIZONA. DRIER AND MUCH WARMER WEATHER IS EXPECTED NEXT WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

...POTENT UPPER TROUGH AND FRONTAL PASSAGE ACROSS THE REGION THIS
EVENING AND TONIGHT WITH STRONG GUSTY WINDS AND THUNDERSTORM
CHANCES...

TODAY THUS FAR HAS BEEN FAIRLY QUIET ACROSS THE AREA EXCEPT FOR SOME
LIGHT SHOWERS PASSING THROUGH RIVERSIDE AND LA PAZ COUNTIES WITH
SOME RECENT DEVELOPMENT JUST TO OUR NORTH IN YAVAPAI COUNTY. THESE
SHOWERS WERE IN RESPONSE TO A WEAKENING SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING INTO
CENTRAL ARIZONA OUT AHEAD OF THE MAIN TROUGH THAT WILL AFFECT THE
AREA LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT. CURRENT WATER VAPOR AND UPPER HEIGHT
ANALYSIS SHOWS A RATHER IMPRESSIVE UPPER TROUGH APPROACHING FROM THE
NORTHWEST WITH THE MAIN SHORTWAVE TROUGH JUST WEST OF LAS VEGAS.
DIFLUENT FLOW ALOFT OVER SOUTHERN NEVADA AND UTAH ALONG WITH STRONG
500MB HEIGHT FALLS CENTERED OVER THE SIERRAS ARE HELPING TO SPARK
OFF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. WINDS AHEAD OF AN ADVANCING
COLD FRONT HAVE BECOME GUSTY ACROSS SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA WITH SOME
GUSTS TO AROUND 35 KNOTS. AS THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH THIS
EVENING...CAN EXPECT SOME WIND GUSTS UP TO 40-45 KNOTS IN SOME
LOCALIZED SPOTS ALONG WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME BLOWING DUST.

THE MAIN SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND COLD FRONT WILL QUICKLY DIVE
SOUTHEASTWARD THROUGH THE REST OF TODAY...REACHING SOUTH-CENTRAL
ARIZONA AROUND 06Z THIS EVENING. STILL EXPECTING SCATTERED TO
WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP AHEAD OF THESE
FEATURES DURING THE EVENING TIME FRAME WITH BEST CHANCES STRETCHING
FROM NORTHERN LA PAZ COUNTY THROUGH MUCH OF MARICOPA COUNTY...INTO
SOUTHERN GILA COUNTY. CONDITIONS REMAIN RATHER MOIST BETWEEN 8-10K
FEET...BUT FURTHER MOISTENING IN THE MID LEVELS WILL OCCUR AS THE
TROUGH AND COLDER AIR MOVES IN FROM THE NORTHWEST. THE MOIST
CONDITIONS...WEAK UPSLOPE LOW LEVEL FLOW...AND STRONG FORECAST MODEL
OMEGA FOR THIS EVENING ACROSS SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA...WILL ALL COME
INTO PLAY TO AID IN SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT. STRONGER
SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO BRING SOME GUSTY
WINDS DOWN TO THE SURFACE...SO SOME STRONGER SUB-SEVERE GUSTS ARE
POSSIBLE.

BY SUNDAY MORNING...THE MAIN SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL BE MOVING INTO
WESTERN NEW MEXICO WITH SUBSIDENCE ALOFT WORKING INTO OUR WESTERN
ZONES. CHANCES FOR LINGERING SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH SUNDAY
MORNING FROM AROUND PHOENIX EASTWARD WITH BEST CHANCES OVER THE
HIGHER TERRAIN OF EAST-CENTRAL ARIZONA. BY MID TO LATE SUNDAY
AFTERNOON...THE DRIER AIR BEHIND THE TROUGH WILL HAVE MIXED OUT THE
LOW LEVELS ENOUGH TO BASICALLY KEEP ANY REMAINING SHOWER CHANCES
OVER HIGHER TERRAIN AREAS. OUR WESTERN ZONES SHOULD CLEAR OUT FAIRLY
QUICKLY ON SUNDAY WITH HIGHS REBOUNDING BACK INTO THE LOW TO MID
80S. ELSEWHERE...TEMPERATURES SHOULD ONLY PEAK OUT IN THE UPPER 70S
ACROSS THE SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA DESERTS.

FOR THE COMING WORK WEEK...A LARGE RIDGE IS FORECAST TO TAKE OVER
WITH DRY CONDITIONS AND WARMING TEMPERATURES. HIGHS BY MONDAY SHOULD
REACH NEAR NORMALS AND ONCE THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE FINALLY TAKES
OVER...TEMPERATURES WILL HEAT UP EVEN MORE WITH FORECAST HIGHS IN
THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 90S FOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY ACROSS THE
DESERTS. THOUGH THERE ARE SOME MODEL DIFFERENCES BEYOND NEXT
THURSDAY...THE GENERAL CONSENSUS IS THAT LARGE SCALE TROUGHING WILL
PUSH THE RIDGE OUT THE REGION ALLOWING FOR SOME MODERATION IN
TEMPERATURES...BUT CONTINUING WITH THE DRY CONDITIONS.

&&

AVIATION...

SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA INCLUDING KPHX...KIWA...AND KSDL...
APPROACHING UPPER-LEVEL LOW CENTER...AND ASSOCIATED SFC FRONT IS
STILL EXPECTED TO BRING STRONG...AND GUSTY WINDS TO THE PHX AREA
TERMINALS THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING AS SFC PRESSURE GRADIENTS INCREASE
OVER THE REGION. SUSTAINED WINDS...FROM A WESTERLY DIRECTION...ARE
EXPECTED TO INCREASE INTO THE 20-25KT RANGE...WITH GUSTS IN THE 30-
35KT RANGE BY THIS EVENING...WITH PERHAPS A SHORT BURST OF EVEN
STRONGER WINDS FOR A HOUR OR SO AROUND 02-03Z AS THE SFC FRONT
PASSES. ALONG WITH THE WINDS...SCATTERED-NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND FEW
THUNDERSTORMS ARE ALSO EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ALONG/JUST AHEAD OF THE
FROM...WITH ENOUGH CONFIDENCE TO INCLUDE THEM IN THE TAFS BETWEEN
06Z AND 12Z. DRIER AIR PUSHING IN FROM THE WEST WILL THEN CLEAR
SKIES FAIRLY RAPIDLY SUNDAY MORNING AS THE MAIN UL TROF MOVES OFF TO
THE EAST. GUSTY WESTERLY WINDS TO REDEVELOP SUN AFTERNOON AS SFC
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE GREAT BASIN KEEPS SFC PRESSURE GRADIENTS
RATHER TIGHT OVER THE REGION.

SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA AND SOUTHWEST ARIZONA INCLUDING KIPL AND
KBLH... APPROACHING UL TROUGH WILL KEEP STRONG WESTERLY WINDS GOING
ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS...WITH GUSTS AS HIGH AS
40KT EARLY THIS EVENING. PERIODS OF BLOWING DUST REDUCING VISIBILITY
DOWN TO 2SM WILL BE COMMON WITH THE STRONGER WINDS...ESPECIALLY
ACROSS IMPERIAL COUNTY AND NEAR YUMA. 18Z TAFS TAKE AIRFIELD VSBYS
DOWN TO 5SM BUT CANNOT RULE OUT LOCALLY LOWER VALUES FOR SHORTER
PERIODS. SLANT VSBYS LIKELY IMPACTED DUE TO LOFTED DUST. THE
STRONGEST WINDS TO ABATE LATER INTO THE EVENING BUT REMAIN ELEVATED
IN THE 10-15KT RANGE WITH GUSTS STILL TOWARDS 20KTS. STRONGER WINDS
TO RETURN SUN AFTERNOON AS SFC HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE GREAT BASIN
KEEPS SFC PRESSURE GRADIENTS RATHER TIGHT OVER THE REGION.

AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDED TAFS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...
IN THE WAKE OF THE DEPARTING TROUGH...NEXT WEEK WILL SEE THE ARRIVAL
OF A STRONG UPPER RIDGE OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN CONUS FROM MONDAY
THROUGH MOST OF THE WEEK. TEMPERATURES WILL WARM SUBSTANTIALLY AND
APPROACH THE TRIPLE DIGIT MARK FOR THE LATTER PART OF THE WEEK.
AFTERNOON HUMIDITIES WILL DROP INTO THE LOWER TEENS AND UPPER SINGLE
DIGITS WITH FAIR OVERNIGHT RECOVERIES EXPECTED. WINDS WILL BE GNLY
LIGHT AND SHOULD FOLLOW TYPICAL DIURNAL PATTERNS.

&&

.PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AZ...NONE.

CA...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM PDT TODAY FOR CAZ030>033.

&&

$$

VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/PHOENIX

DISCUSSION...KUHLMAN
AVIATION...NOLTE
FIRE WEATHER...NOLTE/LEINS




000
FXUS65 KFGZ 251651
AFDFGZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ
950 AM MST SAT APR 25 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE ACROSS ARIZONA TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY
BRINGING WINDY AND COLDER CONDITIONS...ALONG WITH RAIN AND MOUNTAIN
SNOW SHOWERS. LIGHT SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR AREAS
NEAR AND ABOVE 7000 FEET. MUCH WARMER AND DRIER WEATHER WILL ARRIVE
NEXT WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...THE 12Z KFGZ SOUNDING SHOWED NEARLY SATURATED
CONDITIONS UP TO AROUND 650 MB/11800 FEET MSL WITH AROUND 20KT WINDS
OFF THE SURFACE. SHOWERS HAVE ALREADY DEVELOPED OVER UPSLOPE AREAS
OF YAVAPAI COUNTY...THE KAIBAB PLATEAU...MOGOLLON RIM AND INTO THE
WHITE MOUNTAINS.  AND YAVAPAI COUNTY. HAVE ALREADY UPDATED THE
FORECAST TO INCREASE POPS FOR FOR THESE AREAS TODAY.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION /415 AM MST/...

A STRONG AND COLD STORM SYSTEM IS TAKING SHAPE OVER THE WESTERN
STATES THIS MORNING. THIS SYSTEM WILL APPROACH ARIZONA FROM THE
NORTHWEST THROUGH THE DAY...WITH SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
ON THE INCREASE ALONG/NORTH OF A PRESCOTT-FLAGSTAFF TO FOUR CORNERS
LINE. SHOWERS WILL BE MOST PREVALENT OVER FAVORED UPSLOPE AREAS AS
SOUTHWEST WINDS STRENGTHEN. WIND SPEEDS OF 20-30 MPH WITH GUSTS
35-40 MPH ARE EXPECTED THROUGH EARLY THIS EVENING FOR MUCH OF
NORTHERN ARIZONA. AS THE TROUGH AND COLD FRONT PUSH SOUTHEASTWARD
ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT...EXPECT WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION TO
DEVELOP...WITH SOME THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY ALSO LIKELY. MOST AREAS
WILL BEGIN AS RAIN WITH HIGHER ELEVATIONS ABOVE 6500-7000 FEET
SEEING A SWITCH OVER TO SNOW BY EARLY SUNDAY MORNING WHEN THE
COLDEST AIR ARRIVES. ELEVATIONS GENERALLY 7000 FT AND ABOVE ARE
EXPECTED TO SEE ANYWHERE FROM A TRACE TO 2 INCHES OF SNOWFALL DURING
THE MORNING HOURS...WITH HIGHER AMOUNTS OVER MOUNTAIN PEAKS.
INSTABILITY SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE MUCH OF THE DAY SUNDAY WITH SNOW
LEVELS GRADUALLY RISING ABOVE 7000 FEET.

WARMER WEATHER QUICKLY DEVELOPS NEXT WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
INTO THE SOUTHWEST. TEMPERATURES WILL WARM CLOSER TO NORMAL BY
MONDAY AND UP TO 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL BY THE MID TO LATTER PART
OF NEXT WEEK. A LOW CHANCE FOR SHOWERS WILL LINGER ALONG THE NEW
MEXICO BORDER THROUGH TUESDAY WITH OTHERWISE DRY WEATHER.

&&

.AVIATION...
AVIATION...FOR THE 18Z PACKAGE...EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS NORTHEAST OF
THE MOGOLLON RIM THROUGH 20Z-22Z...AS DOWNSLOPE WIND FLOW KEEPS THAT
REGION RELATIVELY CLOUD FREE. ELSEWHERE...WDSPRD MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS
WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE PERIOD...WITH SCT LIFR AFT 23Z-01Z AS
COLDER AIR AND HEAVIER PRECIPITATION MOVES FROM NW TO SE. ALL AREAS
WILL BE WDSPRD MVFR/IFR WITH SCT LIFR BY 02Z-04Z. EXPECT TO
ENCOUNTER SNOW ABOVE 7000 FEET BY MID-EVENING. DAYTIME SW SFC WINDS
15-25G30KTS TODAY. AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR TAF
AMENDMENTS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...A STRONG AND COLD STORM SYSTEM WILL MOVE THROUGH THE
DISTRICT TODAY AND SUNDAY. EXPECT GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS TODAY. AREAS
OF RAIN SHOWERS WILL EXPAND IN COVERAGE AND SPREAD FROM WEST TO EAST
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. TONIGHT AND SUNDAY...WIDESPREAD RAIN AND
HIGH ELEVATION SNOWFALL...WITH ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS. NEARLY ALL OF
THE DISTRICT WILL SEE WETTING RAINFALL. COLDER AIR AND A WIND SHIFT
TO THE NORTHWEST WILL ACCOMPANY CONTINUING SHOWER ACTIVITY SUNDAY
AFTERNOON.

MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...ON MONDAY...DRY WEATHER RETURNS WITH A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF LIGHT SHOWERS LINGERING ACROSS APACHE COUNTY. MUCH
LESS WIND AND A STRONG WARMING TREND WILL DEVELOP TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY.
&&

.FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC.........MAS/JJ
AVIATION.......DL
FIRE WEATHER...DL/PETERSON

FOR NORTHERN ARIZONA WEATHER INFORMATION VISIT
WEATHER.GOV/FLAGSTAFF






000
FXUS65 KFGZ 251651
AFDFGZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ
950 AM MST SAT APR 25 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE ACROSS ARIZONA TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY
BRINGING WINDY AND COLDER CONDITIONS...ALONG WITH RAIN AND MOUNTAIN
SNOW SHOWERS. LIGHT SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR AREAS
NEAR AND ABOVE 7000 FEET. MUCH WARMER AND DRIER WEATHER WILL ARRIVE
NEXT WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...THE 12Z KFGZ SOUNDING SHOWED NEARLY SATURATED
CONDITIONS UP TO AROUND 650 MB/11800 FEET MSL WITH AROUND 20KT WINDS
OFF THE SURFACE. SHOWERS HAVE ALREADY DEVELOPED OVER UPSLOPE AREAS
OF YAVAPAI COUNTY...THE KAIBAB PLATEAU...MOGOLLON RIM AND INTO THE
WHITE MOUNTAINS.  AND YAVAPAI COUNTY. HAVE ALREADY UPDATED THE
FORECAST TO INCREASE POPS FOR FOR THESE AREAS TODAY.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION /415 AM MST/...

A STRONG AND COLD STORM SYSTEM IS TAKING SHAPE OVER THE WESTERN
STATES THIS MORNING. THIS SYSTEM WILL APPROACH ARIZONA FROM THE
NORTHWEST THROUGH THE DAY...WITH SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
ON THE INCREASE ALONG/NORTH OF A PRESCOTT-FLAGSTAFF TO FOUR CORNERS
LINE. SHOWERS WILL BE MOST PREVALENT OVER FAVORED UPSLOPE AREAS AS
SOUTHWEST WINDS STRENGTHEN. WIND SPEEDS OF 20-30 MPH WITH GUSTS
35-40 MPH ARE EXPECTED THROUGH EARLY THIS EVENING FOR MUCH OF
NORTHERN ARIZONA. AS THE TROUGH AND COLD FRONT PUSH SOUTHEASTWARD
ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT...EXPECT WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION TO
DEVELOP...WITH SOME THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY ALSO LIKELY. MOST AREAS
WILL BEGIN AS RAIN WITH HIGHER ELEVATIONS ABOVE 6500-7000 FEET
SEEING A SWITCH OVER TO SNOW BY EARLY SUNDAY MORNING WHEN THE
COLDEST AIR ARRIVES. ELEVATIONS GENERALLY 7000 FT AND ABOVE ARE
EXPECTED TO SEE ANYWHERE FROM A TRACE TO 2 INCHES OF SNOWFALL DURING
THE MORNING HOURS...WITH HIGHER AMOUNTS OVER MOUNTAIN PEAKS.
INSTABILITY SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE MUCH OF THE DAY SUNDAY WITH SNOW
LEVELS GRADUALLY RISING ABOVE 7000 FEET.

WARMER WEATHER QUICKLY DEVELOPS NEXT WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
INTO THE SOUTHWEST. TEMPERATURES WILL WARM CLOSER TO NORMAL BY
MONDAY AND UP TO 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL BY THE MID TO LATTER PART
OF NEXT WEEK. A LOW CHANCE FOR SHOWERS WILL LINGER ALONG THE NEW
MEXICO BORDER THROUGH TUESDAY WITH OTHERWISE DRY WEATHER.

&&

.AVIATION...
AVIATION...FOR THE 18Z PACKAGE...EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS NORTHEAST OF
THE MOGOLLON RIM THROUGH 20Z-22Z...AS DOWNSLOPE WIND FLOW KEEPS THAT
REGION RELATIVELY CLOUD FREE. ELSEWHERE...WDSPRD MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS
WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE PERIOD...WITH SCT LIFR AFT 23Z-01Z AS
COLDER AIR AND HEAVIER PRECIPITATION MOVES FROM NW TO SE. ALL AREAS
WILL BE WDSPRD MVFR/IFR WITH SCT LIFR BY 02Z-04Z. EXPECT TO
ENCOUNTER SNOW ABOVE 7000 FEET BY MID-EVENING. DAYTIME SW SFC WINDS
15-25G30KTS TODAY. AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR TAF
AMENDMENTS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...A STRONG AND COLD STORM SYSTEM WILL MOVE THROUGH THE
DISTRICT TODAY AND SUNDAY. EXPECT GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS TODAY. AREAS
OF RAIN SHOWERS WILL EXPAND IN COVERAGE AND SPREAD FROM WEST TO EAST
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. TONIGHT AND SUNDAY...WIDESPREAD RAIN AND
HIGH ELEVATION SNOWFALL...WITH ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS. NEARLY ALL OF
THE DISTRICT WILL SEE WETTING RAINFALL. COLDER AIR AND A WIND SHIFT
TO THE NORTHWEST WILL ACCOMPANY CONTINUING SHOWER ACTIVITY SUNDAY
AFTERNOON.

MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...ON MONDAY...DRY WEATHER RETURNS WITH A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF LIGHT SHOWERS LINGERING ACROSS APACHE COUNTY. MUCH
LESS WIND AND A STRONG WARMING TREND WILL DEVELOP TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY.
&&

.FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC.........MAS/JJ
AVIATION.......DL
FIRE WEATHER...DL/PETERSON

FOR NORTHERN ARIZONA WEATHER INFORMATION VISIT
WEATHER.GOV/FLAGSTAFF







000
FXUS65 KFGZ 251651
AFDFGZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ
950 AM MST SAT APR 25 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE ACROSS ARIZONA TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY
BRINGING WINDY AND COLDER CONDITIONS...ALONG WITH RAIN AND MOUNTAIN
SNOW SHOWERS. LIGHT SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR AREAS
NEAR AND ABOVE 7000 FEET. MUCH WARMER AND DRIER WEATHER WILL ARRIVE
NEXT WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...THE 12Z KFGZ SOUNDING SHOWED NEARLY SATURATED
CONDITIONS UP TO AROUND 650 MB/11800 FEET MSL WITH AROUND 20KT WINDS
OFF THE SURFACE. SHOWERS HAVE ALREADY DEVELOPED OVER UPSLOPE AREAS
OF YAVAPAI COUNTY...THE KAIBAB PLATEAU...MOGOLLON RIM AND INTO THE
WHITE MOUNTAINS.  AND YAVAPAI COUNTY. HAVE ALREADY UPDATED THE
FORECAST TO INCREASE POPS FOR FOR THESE AREAS TODAY.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION /415 AM MST/...

A STRONG AND COLD STORM SYSTEM IS TAKING SHAPE OVER THE WESTERN
STATES THIS MORNING. THIS SYSTEM WILL APPROACH ARIZONA FROM THE
NORTHWEST THROUGH THE DAY...WITH SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
ON THE INCREASE ALONG/NORTH OF A PRESCOTT-FLAGSTAFF TO FOUR CORNERS
LINE. SHOWERS WILL BE MOST PREVALENT OVER FAVORED UPSLOPE AREAS AS
SOUTHWEST WINDS STRENGTHEN. WIND SPEEDS OF 20-30 MPH WITH GUSTS
35-40 MPH ARE EXPECTED THROUGH EARLY THIS EVENING FOR MUCH OF
NORTHERN ARIZONA. AS THE TROUGH AND COLD FRONT PUSH SOUTHEASTWARD
ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT...EXPECT WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION TO
DEVELOP...WITH SOME THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY ALSO LIKELY. MOST AREAS
WILL BEGIN AS RAIN WITH HIGHER ELEVATIONS ABOVE 6500-7000 FEET
SEEING A SWITCH OVER TO SNOW BY EARLY SUNDAY MORNING WHEN THE
COLDEST AIR ARRIVES. ELEVATIONS GENERALLY 7000 FT AND ABOVE ARE
EXPECTED TO SEE ANYWHERE FROM A TRACE TO 2 INCHES OF SNOWFALL DURING
THE MORNING HOURS...WITH HIGHER AMOUNTS OVER MOUNTAIN PEAKS.
INSTABILITY SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE MUCH OF THE DAY SUNDAY WITH SNOW
LEVELS GRADUALLY RISING ABOVE 7000 FEET.

WARMER WEATHER QUICKLY DEVELOPS NEXT WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
INTO THE SOUTHWEST. TEMPERATURES WILL WARM CLOSER TO NORMAL BY
MONDAY AND UP TO 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL BY THE MID TO LATTER PART
OF NEXT WEEK. A LOW CHANCE FOR SHOWERS WILL LINGER ALONG THE NEW
MEXICO BORDER THROUGH TUESDAY WITH OTHERWISE DRY WEATHER.

&&

.AVIATION...
AVIATION...FOR THE 18Z PACKAGE...EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS NORTHEAST OF
THE MOGOLLON RIM THROUGH 20Z-22Z...AS DOWNSLOPE WIND FLOW KEEPS THAT
REGION RELATIVELY CLOUD FREE. ELSEWHERE...WDSPRD MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS
WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE PERIOD...WITH SCT LIFR AFT 23Z-01Z AS
COLDER AIR AND HEAVIER PRECIPITATION MOVES FROM NW TO SE. ALL AREAS
WILL BE WDSPRD MVFR/IFR WITH SCT LIFR BY 02Z-04Z. EXPECT TO
ENCOUNTER SNOW ABOVE 7000 FEET BY MID-EVENING. DAYTIME SW SFC WINDS
15-25G30KTS TODAY. AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR TAF
AMENDMENTS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...A STRONG AND COLD STORM SYSTEM WILL MOVE THROUGH THE
DISTRICT TODAY AND SUNDAY. EXPECT GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS TODAY. AREAS
OF RAIN SHOWERS WILL EXPAND IN COVERAGE AND SPREAD FROM WEST TO EAST
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. TONIGHT AND SUNDAY...WIDESPREAD RAIN AND
HIGH ELEVATION SNOWFALL...WITH ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS. NEARLY ALL OF
THE DISTRICT WILL SEE WETTING RAINFALL. COLDER AIR AND A WIND SHIFT
TO THE NORTHWEST WILL ACCOMPANY CONTINUING SHOWER ACTIVITY SUNDAY
AFTERNOON.

MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...ON MONDAY...DRY WEATHER RETURNS WITH A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF LIGHT SHOWERS LINGERING ACROSS APACHE COUNTY. MUCH
LESS WIND AND A STRONG WARMING TREND WILL DEVELOP TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY.
&&

.FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC.........MAS/JJ
AVIATION.......DL
FIRE WEATHER...DL/PETERSON

FOR NORTHERN ARIZONA WEATHER INFORMATION VISIT
WEATHER.GOV/FLAGSTAFF






000
FXUS65 KPSR 251615
AFDPSR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PHOENIX AZ
915 AM MST SAT APR 25 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A STRONG COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO MOVE INTO THE REGION LATE THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. AHEAD OF THE FRONT...GUSTY AFTERNOON
SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL DEVELOP...STRONGEST IN SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA AND
THE COLORADO RIVER VALLEY. THE CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
WILL ALSO INCREASE LATE TODAY AND TONIGHT...BUT MAINLY ACROSS
PORTIONS OF SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH CENTRAL ARIZONA. LINGERING SHOWERS
ARE EXPECTED SUNDAY OVER EASTERN ARIZONA...WITH CLEARING OVER
SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA AND SOUTHWEST ARIZONA. DRIER AND MUCH WARMER
WEATHER IS EXPECTED NEXT WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

...POTENT UPPER TROUGH AND FRONTAL PASSAGE ACROSS THE REGION TODAY
WITH STRONG GUSTY WINDS AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES...

INCOMING UPPER TROUGH CONTINUES TO QUICKLY APPROACH FROM THE
NORTHWEST WITH THE MAIN SHORTWAVE IN EAST-CENTRAL CALIFORNIA. A
SECOND SHORTWAVE TROUGH...EASILY SEEN ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY MOVING
INTO SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA...WAS NOT PICKED UP WELL BY THE MODELS AND
MAY GIVE US A BETTER CHANCE OF SHOWERS ACROSS OUR NORTHERN ZONES BY
MID TO LATE AFTERNOON. THE LATEST HRRR RUN SHOWS A BAND OF SHOWERS
QUICKLY DEVELOPING AROUND 21Z ACROSS EASTERN RIVERSIDE COUNTY
CALIFORNIA AND OVER LA PAZ COUNTY ARIZONA AND THEN QUICKLY SPREADING
EASTWARD THROUGH SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA. MODEL POP GUIDANCE STILL IS
A BIT ON THE LOW SIDE...BUT FEEL OUR A BIT MORE AGGRESSIVE FORECAST
POPS ARE JUSTIFIED BASED ON IMPRESSIVE WATER VAPOR SHORTWAVE TROUGH
SIGNATURE. WINDS HAVE YET TO PICK UP MUCH...BUT ONCE THIS FIRST
TROUGH SLIDES EASTWARD THIS AFTERNOON...GUSTY WINDS WILL DEVELOP
OVER SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA AND THEN A BIT LATER OVER SOUTH-CENTRAL
ARIZONA. BEST CHANCES FOR RAIN AND POTENTIALLY A FEW THUNDERSTORMS
STILL SEEMS TO BE CENTERED AROUND 06Z TONIGHT OVER SOUTH-CENTRAL
ARIZONA AS THE MAIN SHORTWAVE TROUGH SWINGS THROUGH.

&&

.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY...
REGIONAL WEATHER BALLOON SOUNDINGS FRIDAY EVENING CONTINUED TO SHOW
A RELATIVELY MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER ABOUT 6 TO 7000 FEET DEEP
EXTENDING FROM SOUTHERN CA TO SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH CENTRAL AZ. THIS
MOISTURE IS SIGNIFICANT RELATIVE TO THE COOLER TEMPS ALOFT...AND
FRONTAL PASSAGE EXPECTED LATE SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

OTHERWISE...A POWERFUL AND FAST MOVING NEGATIVE TILT DIFLUENT TROF
IS STILL FORECAST TO MOVE INTO CENTRAL AZ LATE SATURDAY AFTERNOON
AND EVENING. CURRENT MODELS...SPECIFICALLY THE GFS...IS NOT ONLY A
LITTLE FASTER WITH THE COLD FRONT...BUT IT DEEPENS THE TROF SLIGHTLY
MORE EASTWARD INTO CENTRAL AZ. A VERY PROGRESSIVE UPSTREAM PACIFIC
FLOW PATTERN IS PERHAPS PUSHING THIS SYSTEM FASTER/EASTWARD THAN
EARLIER MODEL RUNS. THEREFORE PRECIP CHANCES ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA...INCLUDING PHOENIX WILL LIKELY START A LITTLE EARLIER...
MEANING LATE AFTERNOON. THE HEAVIEST PRECIP WITH A CHANCE OF TSTMS
HOWEVER IS SLATED FOR THIS EVENING...AFTER DARK...IN SOUTH CENTRAL
AZ.

FOR TODAY AND TONIGHT...
INCREASING CLOUDS BUT NO PRECIP IS EXPECTED THE FIRST HALF OF THE
DAY. BACKING PRE-FRONTAL WINDS AND WARM ADVECTION AHEAD OF THE COLD
FRONT WILL MAKE FOR A WINDY AFTERNOON... WITH THE STRONGEST WINDS IN
SOUTHEAST CA/COLORADO RIVER WHERE A WIND ADVISORY IS POSTED FOR
GUSTS BETWEEN 35 AND 45 MPH.

THE COLD FRONT BY 5 PM LOCAL TIME WILL HAVE JUST MOVED ACROSS THE
COLORADO RIVER...THEN INTO PHOENIX AREA BY 8 PM. THE BEST CHANCE OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS BY 5 PM WILL DEVELOP JUST NORTHWEST AND
NORTH OF BLYTHE CA ALONG THE COLORADO RIVER...AND OVER PORTIONS OF
LA PAZ COUNTY. SHOWERS AND TSTMS DEVELOP ALONG THE COLD FRONT IN
PHOENIX BY 8 PM. IF THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP...THEIR FAST MOVEMENT
COMBINED WITH PRECIP FALLING THROUGH 20-30 KNOT 850-700 MB
SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS COULD CAUSE SUDDEN GUSTS TO PERHAPS 45 MPH.

SINCE THIS IS A FAST MOVING SYSTEM...MOST SHOWERS BY 5 AM SUN WILL
BE CONFINED TO AREAS GENERALLY FROM PHOENIX EASTWARD. SAME FOR THE
SUNDAY AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING PERIOD.

SUNDAY NIGHT...RAPID CLEARING IS EXPECTED.

MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...
DRY NORTHERLY FLOW WILL DEVELOP MONDAY AND TUESDAY FOLLOWED BY A
BUILDING RIDGE OVER THE REGION WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. MUCH WARMER
TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST WEDNESDAY WITH NEAR 100 DEGREE HEAT ON THE
WARMEST DESERTS.

&&

.AVIATION...
SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA INCLUDING KPHX...KIWA...AND KSDL...
APPROACHING UL TROUGH AND COLD FRONT WILL INCREASE WINDS BEGINNING
LATE AM GNLY POST 17Z...BECOMING GUSTY UP TO 25KT OR SO DURING THE
AFTERNOON...EVEN STRONGER TO 30KT SATURDAY EVENING. EXPECT THE
STRONGEST WINDS IN A BURST RIGHT ALONG PASSING COLD FRONT. SOME
TIMING DIFFERENCES REMAIN BETWEEN MODEL FCSTS...BUT LIKELY WINDOW OF
FROPA AND STRONGEST WEST WINDS AROUND 26/02-04Z WINDOW.

PRECIPITATION CHANCES ALSO INCREASE AFTER 21Z...WITH SCATTERED
SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE BEGINNING OVER THE WESTERN DESERTS. VCSH
WILL BEGIN TO FILL IN AROUND PHX METRO PERIPHERY AFTER 26/00Z...WITH
SHOWERS STARTING EARLIER FOR KSDL AND KIWA BEFORE KPHX. CHANCE OF
THUNDER POSSIBLE AS WELL WITH THIS STRONG SYSTEM...SO INCLUDED
OVERNIGHT MENTION OF -TSRA POST-MIDNIGHT LOCAL 26/07Z. CIGS
STARTING OFF IN THE AFTERNOON 7-9KFT BEFORE DROPPING INTO THE 3-5KFT
RANGE WITH ONSET OF STEADY PRECIP LATE IN THE EVENING.


SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA AND SOUTHWEST ARIZONA INCLUDING KIPL AND KBLH...
APPROACHING UL TROUGH WILL PERSIST STRONG WINDS STEADILY INCREASING
AFTER 25/16Z...PEAK GUSTS UP TO 40KT WILL BE COMMON ACROSS THE AREA
BY LATE AFTERNOON CONTINUING INTO THE EVENING HOURS. PERIODS OF
BLOWING DUST REDUCING VISIBILITY DOWN TO 2SM WILL BE COMMON WITH THE
STRONGER WINDS...ESPECIALLY ACROSS IMPERIAL COUNTY AND NEAR YUMA.
12Z TAFS TAKE AIRFIELD VSBYS DOWN TO 5SM BUT CANNOT RULE OUT LOCALLY
LOWER VALUES FOR SHORTER PERIODS. SLANT VSBYS LIKELY IMPACTED DUE TO
LOFTED DUST. THE STRONGEST WINDS TO ABATE LATER INTO THE EVENING BUT
REMAIN ELEVATED IN THE 10-15KT RANGE WITH GUSTS STILL TOWARDS 20KTS.

AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDED TAFS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...
IN THE WAKE OF THE DEPARTING TROUGH...NEXT WEEK WILL SEE THE ARRIVAL
OF A STRONG UPPER RIDGE OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN CONUS FROM MONDAY
THROUGH MOST OF THE WEEK. TEMPERATURES WILL WARM SUBSTANTIALLY AND
APPROACH THE TRIPLE DIGIT MARK FOR THE LATTER PART OF THE WEEK.
AFTERNOON HUMIDITIES WILL DROP INTO THE LOWER TEENS AND UPPER SINGLE
DIGITS WITH FAIR OVERNIGHT RECOVERIES EXPECTED. WINDS WILL BE GNLY
LIGHT AND SHOULD FOLLOW TYPICAL DIURNAL PATTERNS.

&&

.PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AZ...NONE.

CA...WIND ADVISORY FROM 1 PM TO 9 PM PDT TODAY FOR CAZ030>033.

&&

$$

VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/PHOENIX

DISCUSSION...KUHLMAN
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...VASQUEZ
AVIATION...NOLTE
FIRE WEATHER...NOLTE/LEINS



000
FXUS65 KPSR 251615
AFDPSR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PHOENIX AZ
915 AM MST SAT APR 25 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A STRONG COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO MOVE INTO THE REGION LATE THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. AHEAD OF THE FRONT...GUSTY AFTERNOON
SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL DEVELOP...STRONGEST IN SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA AND
THE COLORADO RIVER VALLEY. THE CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
WILL ALSO INCREASE LATE TODAY AND TONIGHT...BUT MAINLY ACROSS
PORTIONS OF SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH CENTRAL ARIZONA. LINGERING SHOWERS
ARE EXPECTED SUNDAY OVER EASTERN ARIZONA...WITH CLEARING OVER
SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA AND SOUTHWEST ARIZONA. DRIER AND MUCH WARMER
WEATHER IS EXPECTED NEXT WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

...POTENT UPPER TROUGH AND FRONTAL PASSAGE ACROSS THE REGION TODAY
WITH STRONG GUSTY WINDS AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES...

INCOMING UPPER TROUGH CONTINUES TO QUICKLY APPROACH FROM THE
NORTHWEST WITH THE MAIN SHORTWAVE IN EAST-CENTRAL CALIFORNIA. A
SECOND SHORTWAVE TROUGH...EASILY SEEN ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY MOVING
INTO SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA...WAS NOT PICKED UP WELL BY THE MODELS AND
MAY GIVE US A BETTER CHANCE OF SHOWERS ACROSS OUR NORTHERN ZONES BY
MID TO LATE AFTERNOON. THE LATEST HRRR RUN SHOWS A BAND OF SHOWERS
QUICKLY DEVELOPING AROUND 21Z ACROSS EASTERN RIVERSIDE COUNTY
CALIFORNIA AND OVER LA PAZ COUNTY ARIZONA AND THEN QUICKLY SPREADING
EASTWARD THROUGH SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA. MODEL POP GUIDANCE STILL IS
A BIT ON THE LOW SIDE...BUT FEEL OUR A BIT MORE AGGRESSIVE FORECAST
POPS ARE JUSTIFIED BASED ON IMPRESSIVE WATER VAPOR SHORTWAVE TROUGH
SIGNATURE. WINDS HAVE YET TO PICK UP MUCH...BUT ONCE THIS FIRST
TROUGH SLIDES EASTWARD THIS AFTERNOON...GUSTY WINDS WILL DEVELOP
OVER SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA AND THEN A BIT LATER OVER SOUTH-CENTRAL
ARIZONA. BEST CHANCES FOR RAIN AND POTENTIALLY A FEW THUNDERSTORMS
STILL SEEMS TO BE CENTERED AROUND 06Z TONIGHT OVER SOUTH-CENTRAL
ARIZONA AS THE MAIN SHORTWAVE TROUGH SWINGS THROUGH.

&&

.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY...
REGIONAL WEATHER BALLOON SOUNDINGS FRIDAY EVENING CONTINUED TO SHOW
A RELATIVELY MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER ABOUT 6 TO 7000 FEET DEEP
EXTENDING FROM SOUTHERN CA TO SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH CENTRAL AZ. THIS
MOISTURE IS SIGNIFICANT RELATIVE TO THE COOLER TEMPS ALOFT...AND
FRONTAL PASSAGE EXPECTED LATE SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

OTHERWISE...A POWERFUL AND FAST MOVING NEGATIVE TILT DIFLUENT TROF
IS STILL FORECAST TO MOVE INTO CENTRAL AZ LATE SATURDAY AFTERNOON
AND EVENING. CURRENT MODELS...SPECIFICALLY THE GFS...IS NOT ONLY A
LITTLE FASTER WITH THE COLD FRONT...BUT IT DEEPENS THE TROF SLIGHTLY
MORE EASTWARD INTO CENTRAL AZ. A VERY PROGRESSIVE UPSTREAM PACIFIC
FLOW PATTERN IS PERHAPS PUSHING THIS SYSTEM FASTER/EASTWARD THAN
EARLIER MODEL RUNS. THEREFORE PRECIP CHANCES ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA...INCLUDING PHOENIX WILL LIKELY START A LITTLE EARLIER...
MEANING LATE AFTERNOON. THE HEAVIEST PRECIP WITH A CHANCE OF TSTMS
HOWEVER IS SLATED FOR THIS EVENING...AFTER DARK...IN SOUTH CENTRAL
AZ.

FOR TODAY AND TONIGHT...
INCREASING CLOUDS BUT NO PRECIP IS EXPECTED THE FIRST HALF OF THE
DAY. BACKING PRE-FRONTAL WINDS AND WARM ADVECTION AHEAD OF THE COLD
FRONT WILL MAKE FOR A WINDY AFTERNOON... WITH THE STRONGEST WINDS IN
SOUTHEAST CA/COLORADO RIVER WHERE A WIND ADVISORY IS POSTED FOR
GUSTS BETWEEN 35 AND 45 MPH.

THE COLD FRONT BY 5 PM LOCAL TIME WILL HAVE JUST MOVED ACROSS THE
COLORADO RIVER...THEN INTO PHOENIX AREA BY 8 PM. THE BEST CHANCE OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS BY 5 PM WILL DEVELOP JUST NORTHWEST AND
NORTH OF BLYTHE CA ALONG THE COLORADO RIVER...AND OVER PORTIONS OF
LA PAZ COUNTY. SHOWERS AND TSTMS DEVELOP ALONG THE COLD FRONT IN
PHOENIX BY 8 PM. IF THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP...THEIR FAST MOVEMENT
COMBINED WITH PRECIP FALLING THROUGH 20-30 KNOT 850-700 MB
SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS COULD CAUSE SUDDEN GUSTS TO PERHAPS 45 MPH.

SINCE THIS IS A FAST MOVING SYSTEM...MOST SHOWERS BY 5 AM SUN WILL
BE CONFINED TO AREAS GENERALLY FROM PHOENIX EASTWARD. SAME FOR THE
SUNDAY AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING PERIOD.

SUNDAY NIGHT...RAPID CLEARING IS EXPECTED.

MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...
DRY NORTHERLY FLOW WILL DEVELOP MONDAY AND TUESDAY FOLLOWED BY A
BUILDING RIDGE OVER THE REGION WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. MUCH WARMER
TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST WEDNESDAY WITH NEAR 100 DEGREE HEAT ON THE
WARMEST DESERTS.

&&

.AVIATION...
SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA INCLUDING KPHX...KIWA...AND KSDL...
APPROACHING UL TROUGH AND COLD FRONT WILL INCREASE WINDS BEGINNING
LATE AM GNLY POST 17Z...BECOMING GUSTY UP TO 25KT OR SO DURING THE
AFTERNOON...EVEN STRONGER TO 30KT SATURDAY EVENING. EXPECT THE
STRONGEST WINDS IN A BURST RIGHT ALONG PASSING COLD FRONT. SOME
TIMING DIFFERENCES REMAIN BETWEEN MODEL FCSTS...BUT LIKELY WINDOW OF
FROPA AND STRONGEST WEST WINDS AROUND 26/02-04Z WINDOW.

PRECIPITATION CHANCES ALSO INCREASE AFTER 21Z...WITH SCATTERED
SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE BEGINNING OVER THE WESTERN DESERTS. VCSH
WILL BEGIN TO FILL IN AROUND PHX METRO PERIPHERY AFTER 26/00Z...WITH
SHOWERS STARTING EARLIER FOR KSDL AND KIWA BEFORE KPHX. CHANCE OF
THUNDER POSSIBLE AS WELL WITH THIS STRONG SYSTEM...SO INCLUDED
OVERNIGHT MENTION OF -TSRA POST-MIDNIGHT LOCAL 26/07Z. CIGS
STARTING OFF IN THE AFTERNOON 7-9KFT BEFORE DROPPING INTO THE 3-5KFT
RANGE WITH ONSET OF STEADY PRECIP LATE IN THE EVENING.


SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA AND SOUTHWEST ARIZONA INCLUDING KIPL AND KBLH...
APPROACHING UL TROUGH WILL PERSIST STRONG WINDS STEADILY INCREASING
AFTER 25/16Z...PEAK GUSTS UP TO 40KT WILL BE COMMON ACROSS THE AREA
BY LATE AFTERNOON CONTINUING INTO THE EVENING HOURS. PERIODS OF
BLOWING DUST REDUCING VISIBILITY DOWN TO 2SM WILL BE COMMON WITH THE
STRONGER WINDS...ESPECIALLY ACROSS IMPERIAL COUNTY AND NEAR YUMA.
12Z TAFS TAKE AIRFIELD VSBYS DOWN TO 5SM BUT CANNOT RULE OUT LOCALLY
LOWER VALUES FOR SHORTER PERIODS. SLANT VSBYS LIKELY IMPACTED DUE TO
LOFTED DUST. THE STRONGEST WINDS TO ABATE LATER INTO THE EVENING BUT
REMAIN ELEVATED IN THE 10-15KT RANGE WITH GUSTS STILL TOWARDS 20KTS.

AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDED TAFS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...
IN THE WAKE OF THE DEPARTING TROUGH...NEXT WEEK WILL SEE THE ARRIVAL
OF A STRONG UPPER RIDGE OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN CONUS FROM MONDAY
THROUGH MOST OF THE WEEK. TEMPERATURES WILL WARM SUBSTANTIALLY AND
APPROACH THE TRIPLE DIGIT MARK FOR THE LATTER PART OF THE WEEK.
AFTERNOON HUMIDITIES WILL DROP INTO THE LOWER TEENS AND UPPER SINGLE
DIGITS WITH FAIR OVERNIGHT RECOVERIES EXPECTED. WINDS WILL BE GNLY
LIGHT AND SHOULD FOLLOW TYPICAL DIURNAL PATTERNS.

&&

.PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AZ...NONE.

CA...WIND ADVISORY FROM 1 PM TO 9 PM PDT TODAY FOR CAZ030>033.

&&

$$

VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/PHOENIX

DISCUSSION...KUHLMAN
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...VASQUEZ
AVIATION...NOLTE
FIRE WEATHER...NOLTE/LEINS



000
FXUS65 KPSR 251615
AFDPSR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PHOENIX AZ
915 AM MST SAT APR 25 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A STRONG COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO MOVE INTO THE REGION LATE THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. AHEAD OF THE FRONT...GUSTY AFTERNOON
SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL DEVELOP...STRONGEST IN SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA AND
THE COLORADO RIVER VALLEY. THE CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
WILL ALSO INCREASE LATE TODAY AND TONIGHT...BUT MAINLY ACROSS
PORTIONS OF SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH CENTRAL ARIZONA. LINGERING SHOWERS
ARE EXPECTED SUNDAY OVER EASTERN ARIZONA...WITH CLEARING OVER
SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA AND SOUTHWEST ARIZONA. DRIER AND MUCH WARMER
WEATHER IS EXPECTED NEXT WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

...POTENT UPPER TROUGH AND FRONTAL PASSAGE ACROSS THE REGION TODAY
WITH STRONG GUSTY WINDS AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES...

INCOMING UPPER TROUGH CONTINUES TO QUICKLY APPROACH FROM THE
NORTHWEST WITH THE MAIN SHORTWAVE IN EAST-CENTRAL CALIFORNIA. A
SECOND SHORTWAVE TROUGH...EASILY SEEN ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY MOVING
INTO SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA...WAS NOT PICKED UP WELL BY THE MODELS AND
MAY GIVE US A BETTER CHANCE OF SHOWERS ACROSS OUR NORTHERN ZONES BY
MID TO LATE AFTERNOON. THE LATEST HRRR RUN SHOWS A BAND OF SHOWERS
QUICKLY DEVELOPING AROUND 21Z ACROSS EASTERN RIVERSIDE COUNTY
CALIFORNIA AND OVER LA PAZ COUNTY ARIZONA AND THEN QUICKLY SPREADING
EASTWARD THROUGH SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA. MODEL POP GUIDANCE STILL IS
A BIT ON THE LOW SIDE...BUT FEEL OUR A BIT MORE AGGRESSIVE FORECAST
POPS ARE JUSTIFIED BASED ON IMPRESSIVE WATER VAPOR SHORTWAVE TROUGH
SIGNATURE. WINDS HAVE YET TO PICK UP MUCH...BUT ONCE THIS FIRST
TROUGH SLIDES EASTWARD THIS AFTERNOON...GUSTY WINDS WILL DEVELOP
OVER SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA AND THEN A BIT LATER OVER SOUTH-CENTRAL
ARIZONA. BEST CHANCES FOR RAIN AND POTENTIALLY A FEW THUNDERSTORMS
STILL SEEMS TO BE CENTERED AROUND 06Z TONIGHT OVER SOUTH-CENTRAL
ARIZONA AS THE MAIN SHORTWAVE TROUGH SWINGS THROUGH.

&&

.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY...
REGIONAL WEATHER BALLOON SOUNDINGS FRIDAY EVENING CONTINUED TO SHOW
A RELATIVELY MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER ABOUT 6 TO 7000 FEET DEEP
EXTENDING FROM SOUTHERN CA TO SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH CENTRAL AZ. THIS
MOISTURE IS SIGNIFICANT RELATIVE TO THE COOLER TEMPS ALOFT...AND
FRONTAL PASSAGE EXPECTED LATE SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

OTHERWISE...A POWERFUL AND FAST MOVING NEGATIVE TILT DIFLUENT TROF
IS STILL FORECAST TO MOVE INTO CENTRAL AZ LATE SATURDAY AFTERNOON
AND EVENING. CURRENT MODELS...SPECIFICALLY THE GFS...IS NOT ONLY A
LITTLE FASTER WITH THE COLD FRONT...BUT IT DEEPENS THE TROF SLIGHTLY
MORE EASTWARD INTO CENTRAL AZ. A VERY PROGRESSIVE UPSTREAM PACIFIC
FLOW PATTERN IS PERHAPS PUSHING THIS SYSTEM FASTER/EASTWARD THAN
EARLIER MODEL RUNS. THEREFORE PRECIP CHANCES ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA...INCLUDING PHOENIX WILL LIKELY START A LITTLE EARLIER...
MEANING LATE AFTERNOON. THE HEAVIEST PRECIP WITH A CHANCE OF TSTMS
HOWEVER IS SLATED FOR THIS EVENING...AFTER DARK...IN SOUTH CENTRAL
AZ.

FOR TODAY AND TONIGHT...
INCREASING CLOUDS BUT NO PRECIP IS EXPECTED THE FIRST HALF OF THE
DAY. BACKING PRE-FRONTAL WINDS AND WARM ADVECTION AHEAD OF THE COLD
FRONT WILL MAKE FOR A WINDY AFTERNOON... WITH THE STRONGEST WINDS IN
SOUTHEAST CA/COLORADO RIVER WHERE A WIND ADVISORY IS POSTED FOR
GUSTS BETWEEN 35 AND 45 MPH.

THE COLD FRONT BY 5 PM LOCAL TIME WILL HAVE JUST MOVED ACROSS THE
COLORADO RIVER...THEN INTO PHOENIX AREA BY 8 PM. THE BEST CHANCE OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS BY 5 PM WILL DEVELOP JUST NORTHWEST AND
NORTH OF BLYTHE CA ALONG THE COLORADO RIVER...AND OVER PORTIONS OF
LA PAZ COUNTY. SHOWERS AND TSTMS DEVELOP ALONG THE COLD FRONT IN
PHOENIX BY 8 PM. IF THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP...THEIR FAST MOVEMENT
COMBINED WITH PRECIP FALLING THROUGH 20-30 KNOT 850-700 MB
SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS COULD CAUSE SUDDEN GUSTS TO PERHAPS 45 MPH.

SINCE THIS IS A FAST MOVING SYSTEM...MOST SHOWERS BY 5 AM SUN WILL
BE CONFINED TO AREAS GENERALLY FROM PHOENIX EASTWARD. SAME FOR THE
SUNDAY AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING PERIOD.

SUNDAY NIGHT...RAPID CLEARING IS EXPECTED.

MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...
DRY NORTHERLY FLOW WILL DEVELOP MONDAY AND TUESDAY FOLLOWED BY A
BUILDING RIDGE OVER THE REGION WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. MUCH WARMER
TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST WEDNESDAY WITH NEAR 100 DEGREE HEAT ON THE
WARMEST DESERTS.

&&

.AVIATION...
SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA INCLUDING KPHX...KIWA...AND KSDL...
APPROACHING UL TROUGH AND COLD FRONT WILL INCREASE WINDS BEGINNING
LATE AM GNLY POST 17Z...BECOMING GUSTY UP TO 25KT OR SO DURING THE
AFTERNOON...EVEN STRONGER TO 30KT SATURDAY EVENING. EXPECT THE
STRONGEST WINDS IN A BURST RIGHT ALONG PASSING COLD FRONT. SOME
TIMING DIFFERENCES REMAIN BETWEEN MODEL FCSTS...BUT LIKELY WINDOW OF
FROPA AND STRONGEST WEST WINDS AROUND 26/02-04Z WINDOW.

PRECIPITATION CHANCES ALSO INCREASE AFTER 21Z...WITH SCATTERED
SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE BEGINNING OVER THE WESTERN DESERTS. VCSH
WILL BEGIN TO FILL IN AROUND PHX METRO PERIPHERY AFTER 26/00Z...WITH
SHOWERS STARTING EARLIER FOR KSDL AND KIWA BEFORE KPHX. CHANCE OF
THUNDER POSSIBLE AS WELL WITH THIS STRONG SYSTEM...SO INCLUDED
OVERNIGHT MENTION OF -TSRA POST-MIDNIGHT LOCAL 26/07Z. CIGS
STARTING OFF IN THE AFTERNOON 7-9KFT BEFORE DROPPING INTO THE 3-5KFT
RANGE WITH ONSET OF STEADY PRECIP LATE IN THE EVENING.


SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA AND SOUTHWEST ARIZONA INCLUDING KIPL AND KBLH...
APPROACHING UL TROUGH WILL PERSIST STRONG WINDS STEADILY INCREASING
AFTER 25/16Z...PEAK GUSTS UP TO 40KT WILL BE COMMON ACROSS THE AREA
BY LATE AFTERNOON CONTINUING INTO THE EVENING HOURS. PERIODS OF
BLOWING DUST REDUCING VISIBILITY DOWN TO 2SM WILL BE COMMON WITH THE
STRONGER WINDS...ESPECIALLY ACROSS IMPERIAL COUNTY AND NEAR YUMA.
12Z TAFS TAKE AIRFIELD VSBYS DOWN TO 5SM BUT CANNOT RULE OUT LOCALLY
LOWER VALUES FOR SHORTER PERIODS. SLANT VSBYS LIKELY IMPACTED DUE TO
LOFTED DUST. THE STRONGEST WINDS TO ABATE LATER INTO THE EVENING BUT
REMAIN ELEVATED IN THE 10-15KT RANGE WITH GUSTS STILL TOWARDS 20KTS.

AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDED TAFS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...
IN THE WAKE OF THE DEPARTING TROUGH...NEXT WEEK WILL SEE THE ARRIVAL
OF A STRONG UPPER RIDGE OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN CONUS FROM MONDAY
THROUGH MOST OF THE WEEK. TEMPERATURES WILL WARM SUBSTANTIALLY AND
APPROACH THE TRIPLE DIGIT MARK FOR THE LATTER PART OF THE WEEK.
AFTERNOON HUMIDITIES WILL DROP INTO THE LOWER TEENS AND UPPER SINGLE
DIGITS WITH FAIR OVERNIGHT RECOVERIES EXPECTED. WINDS WILL BE GNLY
LIGHT AND SHOULD FOLLOW TYPICAL DIURNAL PATTERNS.

&&

.PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AZ...NONE.

CA...WIND ADVISORY FROM 1 PM TO 9 PM PDT TODAY FOR CAZ030>033.

&&

$$

VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/PHOENIX

DISCUSSION...KUHLMAN
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...VASQUEZ
AVIATION...NOLTE
FIRE WEATHER...NOLTE/LEINS



000
FXUS65 KPSR 251615
AFDPSR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PHOENIX AZ
915 AM MST SAT APR 25 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A STRONG COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO MOVE INTO THE REGION LATE THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. AHEAD OF THE FRONT...GUSTY AFTERNOON
SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL DEVELOP...STRONGEST IN SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA AND
THE COLORADO RIVER VALLEY. THE CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
WILL ALSO INCREASE LATE TODAY AND TONIGHT...BUT MAINLY ACROSS
PORTIONS OF SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH CENTRAL ARIZONA. LINGERING SHOWERS
ARE EXPECTED SUNDAY OVER EASTERN ARIZONA...WITH CLEARING OVER
SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA AND SOUTHWEST ARIZONA. DRIER AND MUCH WARMER
WEATHER IS EXPECTED NEXT WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

...POTENT UPPER TROUGH AND FRONTAL PASSAGE ACROSS THE REGION TODAY
WITH STRONG GUSTY WINDS AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES...

INCOMING UPPER TROUGH CONTINUES TO QUICKLY APPROACH FROM THE
NORTHWEST WITH THE MAIN SHORTWAVE IN EAST-CENTRAL CALIFORNIA. A
SECOND SHORTWAVE TROUGH...EASILY SEEN ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY MOVING
INTO SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA...WAS NOT PICKED UP WELL BY THE MODELS AND
MAY GIVE US A BETTER CHANCE OF SHOWERS ACROSS OUR NORTHERN ZONES BY
MID TO LATE AFTERNOON. THE LATEST HRRR RUN SHOWS A BAND OF SHOWERS
QUICKLY DEVELOPING AROUND 21Z ACROSS EASTERN RIVERSIDE COUNTY
CALIFORNIA AND OVER LA PAZ COUNTY ARIZONA AND THEN QUICKLY SPREADING
EASTWARD THROUGH SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA. MODEL POP GUIDANCE STILL IS
A BIT ON THE LOW SIDE...BUT FEEL OUR A BIT MORE AGGRESSIVE FORECAST
POPS ARE JUSTIFIED BASED ON IMPRESSIVE WATER VAPOR SHORTWAVE TROUGH
SIGNATURE. WINDS HAVE YET TO PICK UP MUCH...BUT ONCE THIS FIRST
TROUGH SLIDES EASTWARD THIS AFTERNOON...GUSTY WINDS WILL DEVELOP
OVER SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA AND THEN A BIT LATER OVER SOUTH-CENTRAL
ARIZONA. BEST CHANCES FOR RAIN AND POTENTIALLY A FEW THUNDERSTORMS
STILL SEEMS TO BE CENTERED AROUND 06Z TONIGHT OVER SOUTH-CENTRAL
ARIZONA AS THE MAIN SHORTWAVE TROUGH SWINGS THROUGH.

&&

.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY...
REGIONAL WEATHER BALLOON SOUNDINGS FRIDAY EVENING CONTINUED TO SHOW
A RELATIVELY MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER ABOUT 6 TO 7000 FEET DEEP
EXTENDING FROM SOUTHERN CA TO SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH CENTRAL AZ. THIS
MOISTURE IS SIGNIFICANT RELATIVE TO THE COOLER TEMPS ALOFT...AND
FRONTAL PASSAGE EXPECTED LATE SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

OTHERWISE...A POWERFUL AND FAST MOVING NEGATIVE TILT DIFLUENT TROF
IS STILL FORECAST TO MOVE INTO CENTRAL AZ LATE SATURDAY AFTERNOON
AND EVENING. CURRENT MODELS...SPECIFICALLY THE GFS...IS NOT ONLY A
LITTLE FASTER WITH THE COLD FRONT...BUT IT DEEPENS THE TROF SLIGHTLY
MORE EASTWARD INTO CENTRAL AZ. A VERY PROGRESSIVE UPSTREAM PACIFIC
FLOW PATTERN IS PERHAPS PUSHING THIS SYSTEM FASTER/EASTWARD THAN
EARLIER MODEL RUNS. THEREFORE PRECIP CHANCES ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA...INCLUDING PHOENIX WILL LIKELY START A LITTLE EARLIER...
MEANING LATE AFTERNOON. THE HEAVIEST PRECIP WITH A CHANCE OF TSTMS
HOWEVER IS SLATED FOR THIS EVENING...AFTER DARK...IN SOUTH CENTRAL
AZ.

FOR TODAY AND TONIGHT...
INCREASING CLOUDS BUT NO PRECIP IS EXPECTED THE FIRST HALF OF THE
DAY. BACKING PRE-FRONTAL WINDS AND WARM ADVECTION AHEAD OF THE COLD
FRONT WILL MAKE FOR A WINDY AFTERNOON... WITH THE STRONGEST WINDS IN
SOUTHEAST CA/COLORADO RIVER WHERE A WIND ADVISORY IS POSTED FOR
GUSTS BETWEEN 35 AND 45 MPH.

THE COLD FRONT BY 5 PM LOCAL TIME WILL HAVE JUST MOVED ACROSS THE
COLORADO RIVER...THEN INTO PHOENIX AREA BY 8 PM. THE BEST CHANCE OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS BY 5 PM WILL DEVELOP JUST NORTHWEST AND
NORTH OF BLYTHE CA ALONG THE COLORADO RIVER...AND OVER PORTIONS OF
LA PAZ COUNTY. SHOWERS AND TSTMS DEVELOP ALONG THE COLD FRONT IN
PHOENIX BY 8 PM. IF THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP...THEIR FAST MOVEMENT
COMBINED WITH PRECIP FALLING THROUGH 20-30 KNOT 850-700 MB
SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS COULD CAUSE SUDDEN GUSTS TO PERHAPS 45 MPH.

SINCE THIS IS A FAST MOVING SYSTEM...MOST SHOWERS BY 5 AM SUN WILL
BE CONFINED TO AREAS GENERALLY FROM PHOENIX EASTWARD. SAME FOR THE
SUNDAY AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING PERIOD.

SUNDAY NIGHT...RAPID CLEARING IS EXPECTED.

MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...
DRY NORTHERLY FLOW WILL DEVELOP MONDAY AND TUESDAY FOLLOWED BY A
BUILDING RIDGE OVER THE REGION WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. MUCH WARMER
TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST WEDNESDAY WITH NEAR 100 DEGREE HEAT ON THE
WARMEST DESERTS.

&&

.AVIATION...
SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA INCLUDING KPHX...KIWA...AND KSDL...
APPROACHING UL TROUGH AND COLD FRONT WILL INCREASE WINDS BEGINNING
LATE AM GNLY POST 17Z...BECOMING GUSTY UP TO 25KT OR SO DURING THE
AFTERNOON...EVEN STRONGER TO 30KT SATURDAY EVENING. EXPECT THE
STRONGEST WINDS IN A BURST RIGHT ALONG PASSING COLD FRONT. SOME
TIMING DIFFERENCES REMAIN BETWEEN MODEL FCSTS...BUT LIKELY WINDOW OF
FROPA AND STRONGEST WEST WINDS AROUND 26/02-04Z WINDOW.

PRECIPITATION CHANCES ALSO INCREASE AFTER 21Z...WITH SCATTERED
SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE BEGINNING OVER THE WESTERN DESERTS. VCSH
WILL BEGIN TO FILL IN AROUND PHX METRO PERIPHERY AFTER 26/00Z...WITH
SHOWERS STARTING EARLIER FOR KSDL AND KIWA BEFORE KPHX. CHANCE OF
THUNDER POSSIBLE AS WELL WITH THIS STRONG SYSTEM...SO INCLUDED
OVERNIGHT MENTION OF -TSRA POST-MIDNIGHT LOCAL 26/07Z. CIGS
STARTING OFF IN THE AFTERNOON 7-9KFT BEFORE DROPPING INTO THE 3-5KFT
RANGE WITH ONSET OF STEADY PRECIP LATE IN THE EVENING.


SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA AND SOUTHWEST ARIZONA INCLUDING KIPL AND KBLH...
APPROACHING UL TROUGH WILL PERSIST STRONG WINDS STEADILY INCREASING
AFTER 25/16Z...PEAK GUSTS UP TO 40KT WILL BE COMMON ACROSS THE AREA
BY LATE AFTERNOON CONTINUING INTO THE EVENING HOURS. PERIODS OF
BLOWING DUST REDUCING VISIBILITY DOWN TO 2SM WILL BE COMMON WITH THE
STRONGER WINDS...ESPECIALLY ACROSS IMPERIAL COUNTY AND NEAR YUMA.
12Z TAFS TAKE AIRFIELD VSBYS DOWN TO 5SM BUT CANNOT RULE OUT LOCALLY
LOWER VALUES FOR SHORTER PERIODS. SLANT VSBYS LIKELY IMPACTED DUE TO
LOFTED DUST. THE STRONGEST WINDS TO ABATE LATER INTO THE EVENING BUT
REMAIN ELEVATED IN THE 10-15KT RANGE WITH GUSTS STILL TOWARDS 20KTS.

AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDED TAFS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...
IN THE WAKE OF THE DEPARTING TROUGH...NEXT WEEK WILL SEE THE ARRIVAL
OF A STRONG UPPER RIDGE OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN CONUS FROM MONDAY
THROUGH MOST OF THE WEEK. TEMPERATURES WILL WARM SUBSTANTIALLY AND
APPROACH THE TRIPLE DIGIT MARK FOR THE LATTER PART OF THE WEEK.
AFTERNOON HUMIDITIES WILL DROP INTO THE LOWER TEENS AND UPPER SINGLE
DIGITS WITH FAIR OVERNIGHT RECOVERIES EXPECTED. WINDS WILL BE GNLY
LIGHT AND SHOULD FOLLOW TYPICAL DIURNAL PATTERNS.

&&

.PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AZ...NONE.

CA...WIND ADVISORY FROM 1 PM TO 9 PM PDT TODAY FOR CAZ030>033.

&&

$$

VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/PHOENIX

DISCUSSION...KUHLMAN
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...VASQUEZ
AVIATION...NOLTE
FIRE WEATHER...NOLTE/LEINS



000
FXUS65 KPSR 251615
AFDPSR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PHOENIX AZ
915 AM MST SAT APR 25 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A STRONG COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO MOVE INTO THE REGION LATE THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. AHEAD OF THE FRONT...GUSTY AFTERNOON
SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL DEVELOP...STRONGEST IN SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA AND
THE COLORADO RIVER VALLEY. THE CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
WILL ALSO INCREASE LATE TODAY AND TONIGHT...BUT MAINLY ACROSS
PORTIONS OF SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH CENTRAL ARIZONA. LINGERING SHOWERS
ARE EXPECTED SUNDAY OVER EASTERN ARIZONA...WITH CLEARING OVER
SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA AND SOUTHWEST ARIZONA. DRIER AND MUCH WARMER
WEATHER IS EXPECTED NEXT WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

...POTENT UPPER TROUGH AND FRONTAL PASSAGE ACROSS THE REGION TODAY
WITH STRONG GUSTY WINDS AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES...

INCOMING UPPER TROUGH CONTINUES TO QUICKLY APPROACH FROM THE
NORTHWEST WITH THE MAIN SHORTWAVE IN EAST-CENTRAL CALIFORNIA. A
SECOND SHORTWAVE TROUGH...EASILY SEEN ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY MOVING
INTO SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA...WAS NOT PICKED UP WELL BY THE MODELS AND
MAY GIVE US A BETTER CHANCE OF SHOWERS ACROSS OUR NORTHERN ZONES BY
MID TO LATE AFTERNOON. THE LATEST HRRR RUN SHOWS A BAND OF SHOWERS
QUICKLY DEVELOPING AROUND 21Z ACROSS EASTERN RIVERSIDE COUNTY
CALIFORNIA AND OVER LA PAZ COUNTY ARIZONA AND THEN QUICKLY SPREADING
EASTWARD THROUGH SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA. MODEL POP GUIDANCE STILL IS
A BIT ON THE LOW SIDE...BUT FEEL OUR A BIT MORE AGGRESSIVE FORECAST
POPS ARE JUSTIFIED BASED ON IMPRESSIVE WATER VAPOR SHORTWAVE TROUGH
SIGNATURE. WINDS HAVE YET TO PICK UP MUCH...BUT ONCE THIS FIRST
TROUGH SLIDES EASTWARD THIS AFTERNOON...GUSTY WINDS WILL DEVELOP
OVER SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA AND THEN A BIT LATER OVER SOUTH-CENTRAL
ARIZONA. BEST CHANCES FOR RAIN AND POTENTIALLY A FEW THUNDERSTORMS
STILL SEEMS TO BE CENTERED AROUND 06Z TONIGHT OVER SOUTH-CENTRAL
ARIZONA AS THE MAIN SHORTWAVE TROUGH SWINGS THROUGH.

&&

.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY...
REGIONAL WEATHER BALLOON SOUNDINGS FRIDAY EVENING CONTINUED TO SHOW
A RELATIVELY MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER ABOUT 6 TO 7000 FEET DEEP
EXTENDING FROM SOUTHERN CA TO SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH CENTRAL AZ. THIS
MOISTURE IS SIGNIFICANT RELATIVE TO THE COOLER TEMPS ALOFT...AND
FRONTAL PASSAGE EXPECTED LATE SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

OTHERWISE...A POWERFUL AND FAST MOVING NEGATIVE TILT DIFLUENT TROF
IS STILL FORECAST TO MOVE INTO CENTRAL AZ LATE SATURDAY AFTERNOON
AND EVENING. CURRENT MODELS...SPECIFICALLY THE GFS...IS NOT ONLY A
LITTLE FASTER WITH THE COLD FRONT...BUT IT DEEPENS THE TROF SLIGHTLY
MORE EASTWARD INTO CENTRAL AZ. A VERY PROGRESSIVE UPSTREAM PACIFIC
FLOW PATTERN IS PERHAPS PUSHING THIS SYSTEM FASTER/EASTWARD THAN
EARLIER MODEL RUNS. THEREFORE PRECIP CHANCES ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA...INCLUDING PHOENIX WILL LIKELY START A LITTLE EARLIER...
MEANING LATE AFTERNOON. THE HEAVIEST PRECIP WITH A CHANCE OF TSTMS
HOWEVER IS SLATED FOR THIS EVENING...AFTER DARK...IN SOUTH CENTRAL
AZ.

FOR TODAY AND TONIGHT...
INCREASING CLOUDS BUT NO PRECIP IS EXPECTED THE FIRST HALF OF THE
DAY. BACKING PRE-FRONTAL WINDS AND WARM ADVECTION AHEAD OF THE COLD
FRONT WILL MAKE FOR A WINDY AFTERNOON... WITH THE STRONGEST WINDS IN
SOUTHEAST CA/COLORADO RIVER WHERE A WIND ADVISORY IS POSTED FOR
GUSTS BETWEEN 35 AND 45 MPH.

THE COLD FRONT BY 5 PM LOCAL TIME WILL HAVE JUST MOVED ACROSS THE
COLORADO RIVER...THEN INTO PHOENIX AREA BY 8 PM. THE BEST CHANCE OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS BY 5 PM WILL DEVELOP JUST NORTHWEST AND
NORTH OF BLYTHE CA ALONG THE COLORADO RIVER...AND OVER PORTIONS OF
LA PAZ COUNTY. SHOWERS AND TSTMS DEVELOP ALONG THE COLD FRONT IN
PHOENIX BY 8 PM. IF THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP...THEIR FAST MOVEMENT
COMBINED WITH PRECIP FALLING THROUGH 20-30 KNOT 850-700 MB
SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS COULD CAUSE SUDDEN GUSTS TO PERHAPS 45 MPH.

SINCE THIS IS A FAST MOVING SYSTEM...MOST SHOWERS BY 5 AM SUN WILL
BE CONFINED TO AREAS GENERALLY FROM PHOENIX EASTWARD. SAME FOR THE
SUNDAY AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING PERIOD.

SUNDAY NIGHT...RAPID CLEARING IS EXPECTED.

MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...
DRY NORTHERLY FLOW WILL DEVELOP MONDAY AND TUESDAY FOLLOWED BY A
BUILDING RIDGE OVER THE REGION WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. MUCH WARMER
TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST WEDNESDAY WITH NEAR 100 DEGREE HEAT ON THE
WARMEST DESERTS.

&&

.AVIATION...
SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA INCLUDING KPHX...KIWA...AND KSDL...
APPROACHING UL TROUGH AND COLD FRONT WILL INCREASE WINDS BEGINNING
LATE AM GNLY POST 17Z...BECOMING GUSTY UP TO 25KT OR SO DURING THE
AFTERNOON...EVEN STRONGER TO 30KT SATURDAY EVENING. EXPECT THE
STRONGEST WINDS IN A BURST RIGHT ALONG PASSING COLD FRONT. SOME
TIMING DIFFERENCES REMAIN BETWEEN MODEL FCSTS...BUT LIKELY WINDOW OF
FROPA AND STRONGEST WEST WINDS AROUND 26/02-04Z WINDOW.

PRECIPITATION CHANCES ALSO INCREASE AFTER 21Z...WITH SCATTERED
SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE BEGINNING OVER THE WESTERN DESERTS. VCSH
WILL BEGIN TO FILL IN AROUND PHX METRO PERIPHERY AFTER 26/00Z...WITH
SHOWERS STARTING EARLIER FOR KSDL AND KIWA BEFORE KPHX. CHANCE OF
THUNDER POSSIBLE AS WELL WITH THIS STRONG SYSTEM...SO INCLUDED
OVERNIGHT MENTION OF -TSRA POST-MIDNIGHT LOCAL 26/07Z. CIGS
STARTING OFF IN THE AFTERNOON 7-9KFT BEFORE DROPPING INTO THE 3-5KFT
RANGE WITH ONSET OF STEADY PRECIP LATE IN THE EVENING.


SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA AND SOUTHWEST ARIZONA INCLUDING KIPL AND KBLH...
APPROACHING UL TROUGH WILL PERSIST STRONG WINDS STEADILY INCREASING
AFTER 25/16Z...PEAK GUSTS UP TO 40KT WILL BE COMMON ACROSS THE AREA
BY LATE AFTERNOON CONTINUING INTO THE EVENING HOURS. PERIODS OF
BLOWING DUST REDUCING VISIBILITY DOWN TO 2SM WILL BE COMMON WITH THE
STRONGER WINDS...ESPECIALLY ACROSS IMPERIAL COUNTY AND NEAR YUMA.
12Z TAFS TAKE AIRFIELD VSBYS DOWN TO 5SM BUT CANNOT RULE OUT LOCALLY
LOWER VALUES FOR SHORTER PERIODS. SLANT VSBYS LIKELY IMPACTED DUE TO
LOFTED DUST. THE STRONGEST WINDS TO ABATE LATER INTO THE EVENING BUT
REMAIN ELEVATED IN THE 10-15KT RANGE WITH GUSTS STILL TOWARDS 20KTS.

AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDED TAFS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...
IN THE WAKE OF THE DEPARTING TROUGH...NEXT WEEK WILL SEE THE ARRIVAL
OF A STRONG UPPER RIDGE OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN CONUS FROM MONDAY
THROUGH MOST OF THE WEEK. TEMPERATURES WILL WARM SUBSTANTIALLY AND
APPROACH THE TRIPLE DIGIT MARK FOR THE LATTER PART OF THE WEEK.
AFTERNOON HUMIDITIES WILL DROP INTO THE LOWER TEENS AND UPPER SINGLE
DIGITS WITH FAIR OVERNIGHT RECOVERIES EXPECTED. WINDS WILL BE GNLY
LIGHT AND SHOULD FOLLOW TYPICAL DIURNAL PATTERNS.

&&

.PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AZ...NONE.

CA...WIND ADVISORY FROM 1 PM TO 9 PM PDT TODAY FOR CAZ030>033.

&&

$$

VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/PHOENIX

DISCUSSION...KUHLMAN
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...VASQUEZ
AVIATION...NOLTE
FIRE WEATHER...NOLTE/LEINS



000
FXUS65 KPSR 251615
AFDPSR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PHOENIX AZ
915 AM MST SAT APR 25 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A STRONG COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO MOVE INTO THE REGION LATE THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. AHEAD OF THE FRONT...GUSTY AFTERNOON
SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL DEVELOP...STRONGEST IN SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA AND
THE COLORADO RIVER VALLEY. THE CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
WILL ALSO INCREASE LATE TODAY AND TONIGHT...BUT MAINLY ACROSS
PORTIONS OF SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH CENTRAL ARIZONA. LINGERING SHOWERS
ARE EXPECTED SUNDAY OVER EASTERN ARIZONA...WITH CLEARING OVER
SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA AND SOUTHWEST ARIZONA. DRIER AND MUCH WARMER
WEATHER IS EXPECTED NEXT WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

...POTENT UPPER TROUGH AND FRONTAL PASSAGE ACROSS THE REGION TODAY
WITH STRONG GUSTY WINDS AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES...

INCOMING UPPER TROUGH CONTINUES TO QUICKLY APPROACH FROM THE
NORTHWEST WITH THE MAIN SHORTWAVE IN EAST-CENTRAL CALIFORNIA. A
SECOND SHORTWAVE TROUGH...EASILY SEEN ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY MOVING
INTO SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA...WAS NOT PICKED UP WELL BY THE MODELS AND
MAY GIVE US A BETTER CHANCE OF SHOWERS ACROSS OUR NORTHERN ZONES BY
MID TO LATE AFTERNOON. THE LATEST HRRR RUN SHOWS A BAND OF SHOWERS
QUICKLY DEVELOPING AROUND 21Z ACROSS EASTERN RIVERSIDE COUNTY
CALIFORNIA AND OVER LA PAZ COUNTY ARIZONA AND THEN QUICKLY SPREADING
EASTWARD THROUGH SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA. MODEL POP GUIDANCE STILL IS
A BIT ON THE LOW SIDE...BUT FEEL OUR A BIT MORE AGGRESSIVE FORECAST
POPS ARE JUSTIFIED BASED ON IMPRESSIVE WATER VAPOR SHORTWAVE TROUGH
SIGNATURE. WINDS HAVE YET TO PICK UP MUCH...BUT ONCE THIS FIRST
TROUGH SLIDES EASTWARD THIS AFTERNOON...GUSTY WINDS WILL DEVELOP
OVER SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA AND THEN A BIT LATER OVER SOUTH-CENTRAL
ARIZONA. BEST CHANCES FOR RAIN AND POTENTIALLY A FEW THUNDERSTORMS
STILL SEEMS TO BE CENTERED AROUND 06Z TONIGHT OVER SOUTH-CENTRAL
ARIZONA AS THE MAIN SHORTWAVE TROUGH SWINGS THROUGH.

&&

.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY...
REGIONAL WEATHER BALLOON SOUNDINGS FRIDAY EVENING CONTINUED TO SHOW
A RELATIVELY MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER ABOUT 6 TO 7000 FEET DEEP
EXTENDING FROM SOUTHERN CA TO SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH CENTRAL AZ. THIS
MOISTURE IS SIGNIFICANT RELATIVE TO THE COOLER TEMPS ALOFT...AND
FRONTAL PASSAGE EXPECTED LATE SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

OTHERWISE...A POWERFUL AND FAST MOVING NEGATIVE TILT DIFLUENT TROF
IS STILL FORECAST TO MOVE INTO CENTRAL AZ LATE SATURDAY AFTERNOON
AND EVENING. CURRENT MODELS...SPECIFICALLY THE GFS...IS NOT ONLY A
LITTLE FASTER WITH THE COLD FRONT...BUT IT DEEPENS THE TROF SLIGHTLY
MORE EASTWARD INTO CENTRAL AZ. A VERY PROGRESSIVE UPSTREAM PACIFIC
FLOW PATTERN IS PERHAPS PUSHING THIS SYSTEM FASTER/EASTWARD THAN
EARLIER MODEL RUNS. THEREFORE PRECIP CHANCES ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA...INCLUDING PHOENIX WILL LIKELY START A LITTLE EARLIER...
MEANING LATE AFTERNOON. THE HEAVIEST PRECIP WITH A CHANCE OF TSTMS
HOWEVER IS SLATED FOR THIS EVENING...AFTER DARK...IN SOUTH CENTRAL
AZ.

FOR TODAY AND TONIGHT...
INCREASING CLOUDS BUT NO PRECIP IS EXPECTED THE FIRST HALF OF THE
DAY. BACKING PRE-FRONTAL WINDS AND WARM ADVECTION AHEAD OF THE COLD
FRONT WILL MAKE FOR A WINDY AFTERNOON... WITH THE STRONGEST WINDS IN
SOUTHEAST CA/COLORADO RIVER WHERE A WIND ADVISORY IS POSTED FOR
GUSTS BETWEEN 35 AND 45 MPH.

THE COLD FRONT BY 5 PM LOCAL TIME WILL HAVE JUST MOVED ACROSS THE
COLORADO RIVER...THEN INTO PHOENIX AREA BY 8 PM. THE BEST CHANCE OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS BY 5 PM WILL DEVELOP JUST NORTHWEST AND
NORTH OF BLYTHE CA ALONG THE COLORADO RIVER...AND OVER PORTIONS OF
LA PAZ COUNTY. SHOWERS AND TSTMS DEVELOP ALONG THE COLD FRONT IN
PHOENIX BY 8 PM. IF THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP...THEIR FAST MOVEMENT
COMBINED WITH PRECIP FALLING THROUGH 20-30 KNOT 850-700 MB
SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS COULD CAUSE SUDDEN GUSTS TO PERHAPS 45 MPH.

SINCE THIS IS A FAST MOVING SYSTEM...MOST SHOWERS BY 5 AM SUN WILL
BE CONFINED TO AREAS GENERALLY FROM PHOENIX EASTWARD. SAME FOR THE
SUNDAY AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING PERIOD.

SUNDAY NIGHT...RAPID CLEARING IS EXPECTED.

MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...
DRY NORTHERLY FLOW WILL DEVELOP MONDAY AND TUESDAY FOLLOWED BY A
BUILDING RIDGE OVER THE REGION WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. MUCH WARMER
TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST WEDNESDAY WITH NEAR 100 DEGREE HEAT ON THE
WARMEST DESERTS.

&&

.AVIATION...
SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA INCLUDING KPHX...KIWA...AND KSDL...
APPROACHING UL TROUGH AND COLD FRONT WILL INCREASE WINDS BEGINNING
LATE AM GNLY POST 17Z...BECOMING GUSTY UP TO 25KT OR SO DURING THE
AFTERNOON...EVEN STRONGER TO 30KT SATURDAY EVENING. EXPECT THE
STRONGEST WINDS IN A BURST RIGHT ALONG PASSING COLD FRONT. SOME
TIMING DIFFERENCES REMAIN BETWEEN MODEL FCSTS...BUT LIKELY WINDOW OF
FROPA AND STRONGEST WEST WINDS AROUND 26/02-04Z WINDOW.

PRECIPITATION CHANCES ALSO INCREASE AFTER 21Z...WITH SCATTERED
SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE BEGINNING OVER THE WESTERN DESERTS. VCSH
WILL BEGIN TO FILL IN AROUND PHX METRO PERIPHERY AFTER 26/00Z...WITH
SHOWERS STARTING EARLIER FOR KSDL AND KIWA BEFORE KPHX. CHANCE OF
THUNDER POSSIBLE AS WELL WITH THIS STRONG SYSTEM...SO INCLUDED
OVERNIGHT MENTION OF -TSRA POST-MIDNIGHT LOCAL 26/07Z. CIGS
STARTING OFF IN THE AFTERNOON 7-9KFT BEFORE DROPPING INTO THE 3-5KFT
RANGE WITH ONSET OF STEADY PRECIP LATE IN THE EVENING.


SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA AND SOUTHWEST ARIZONA INCLUDING KIPL AND KBLH...
APPROACHING UL TROUGH WILL PERSIST STRONG WINDS STEADILY INCREASING
AFTER 25/16Z...PEAK GUSTS UP TO 40KT WILL BE COMMON ACROSS THE AREA
BY LATE AFTERNOON CONTINUING INTO THE EVENING HOURS. PERIODS OF
BLOWING DUST REDUCING VISIBILITY DOWN TO 2SM WILL BE COMMON WITH THE
STRONGER WINDS...ESPECIALLY ACROSS IMPERIAL COUNTY AND NEAR YUMA.
12Z TAFS TAKE AIRFIELD VSBYS DOWN TO 5SM BUT CANNOT RULE OUT LOCALLY
LOWER VALUES FOR SHORTER PERIODS. SLANT VSBYS LIKELY IMPACTED DUE TO
LOFTED DUST. THE STRONGEST WINDS TO ABATE LATER INTO THE EVENING BUT
REMAIN ELEVATED IN THE 10-15KT RANGE WITH GUSTS STILL TOWARDS 20KTS.

AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDED TAFS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...
IN THE WAKE OF THE DEPARTING TROUGH...NEXT WEEK WILL SEE THE ARRIVAL
OF A STRONG UPPER RIDGE OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN CONUS FROM MONDAY
THROUGH MOST OF THE WEEK. TEMPERATURES WILL WARM SUBSTANTIALLY AND
APPROACH THE TRIPLE DIGIT MARK FOR THE LATTER PART OF THE WEEK.
AFTERNOON HUMIDITIES WILL DROP INTO THE LOWER TEENS AND UPPER SINGLE
DIGITS WITH FAIR OVERNIGHT RECOVERIES EXPECTED. WINDS WILL BE GNLY
LIGHT AND SHOULD FOLLOW TYPICAL DIURNAL PATTERNS.

&&

.PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AZ...NONE.

CA...WIND ADVISORY FROM 1 PM TO 9 PM PDT TODAY FOR CAZ030>033.

&&

$$

VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/PHOENIX

DISCUSSION...KUHLMAN
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...VASQUEZ
AVIATION...NOLTE
FIRE WEATHER...NOLTE/LEINS



000
FXUS65 KPSR 251615
AFDPSR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PHOENIX AZ
915 AM MST SAT APR 25 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A STRONG COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO MOVE INTO THE REGION LATE THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. AHEAD OF THE FRONT...GUSTY AFTERNOON
SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL DEVELOP...STRONGEST IN SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA AND
THE COLORADO RIVER VALLEY. THE CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
WILL ALSO INCREASE LATE TODAY AND TONIGHT...BUT MAINLY ACROSS
PORTIONS OF SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH CENTRAL ARIZONA. LINGERING SHOWERS
ARE EXPECTED SUNDAY OVER EASTERN ARIZONA...WITH CLEARING OVER
SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA AND SOUTHWEST ARIZONA. DRIER AND MUCH WARMER
WEATHER IS EXPECTED NEXT WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

...POTENT UPPER TROUGH AND FRONTAL PASSAGE ACROSS THE REGION TODAY
WITH STRONG GUSTY WINDS AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES...

INCOMING UPPER TROUGH CONTINUES TO QUICKLY APPROACH FROM THE
NORTHWEST WITH THE MAIN SHORTWAVE IN EAST-CENTRAL CALIFORNIA. A
SECOND SHORTWAVE TROUGH...EASILY SEEN ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY MOVING
INTO SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA...WAS NOT PICKED UP WELL BY THE MODELS AND
MAY GIVE US A BETTER CHANCE OF SHOWERS ACROSS OUR NORTHERN ZONES BY
MID TO LATE AFTERNOON. THE LATEST HRRR RUN SHOWS A BAND OF SHOWERS
QUICKLY DEVELOPING AROUND 21Z ACROSS EASTERN RIVERSIDE COUNTY
CALIFORNIA AND OVER LA PAZ COUNTY ARIZONA AND THEN QUICKLY SPREADING
EASTWARD THROUGH SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA. MODEL POP GUIDANCE STILL IS
A BIT ON THE LOW SIDE...BUT FEEL OUR A BIT MORE AGGRESSIVE FORECAST
POPS ARE JUSTIFIED BASED ON IMPRESSIVE WATER VAPOR SHORTWAVE TROUGH
SIGNATURE. WINDS HAVE YET TO PICK UP MUCH...BUT ONCE THIS FIRST
TROUGH SLIDES EASTWARD THIS AFTERNOON...GUSTY WINDS WILL DEVELOP
OVER SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA AND THEN A BIT LATER OVER SOUTH-CENTRAL
ARIZONA. BEST CHANCES FOR RAIN AND POTENTIALLY A FEW THUNDERSTORMS
STILL SEEMS TO BE CENTERED AROUND 06Z TONIGHT OVER SOUTH-CENTRAL
ARIZONA AS THE MAIN SHORTWAVE TROUGH SWINGS THROUGH.

&&

.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY...
REGIONAL WEATHER BALLOON SOUNDINGS FRIDAY EVENING CONTINUED TO SHOW
A RELATIVELY MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER ABOUT 6 TO 7000 FEET DEEP
EXTENDING FROM SOUTHERN CA TO SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH CENTRAL AZ. THIS
MOISTURE IS SIGNIFICANT RELATIVE TO THE COOLER TEMPS ALOFT...AND
FRONTAL PASSAGE EXPECTED LATE SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

OTHERWISE...A POWERFUL AND FAST MOVING NEGATIVE TILT DIFLUENT TROF
IS STILL FORECAST TO MOVE INTO CENTRAL AZ LATE SATURDAY AFTERNOON
AND EVENING. CURRENT MODELS...SPECIFICALLY THE GFS...IS NOT ONLY A
LITTLE FASTER WITH THE COLD FRONT...BUT IT DEEPENS THE TROF SLIGHTLY
MORE EASTWARD INTO CENTRAL AZ. A VERY PROGRESSIVE UPSTREAM PACIFIC
FLOW PATTERN IS PERHAPS PUSHING THIS SYSTEM FASTER/EASTWARD THAN
EARLIER MODEL RUNS. THEREFORE PRECIP CHANCES ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA...INCLUDING PHOENIX WILL LIKELY START A LITTLE EARLIER...
MEANING LATE AFTERNOON. THE HEAVIEST PRECIP WITH A CHANCE OF TSTMS
HOWEVER IS SLATED FOR THIS EVENING...AFTER DARK...IN SOUTH CENTRAL
AZ.

FOR TODAY AND TONIGHT...
INCREASING CLOUDS BUT NO PRECIP IS EXPECTED THE FIRST HALF OF THE
DAY. BACKING PRE-FRONTAL WINDS AND WARM ADVECTION AHEAD OF THE COLD
FRONT WILL MAKE FOR A WINDY AFTERNOON... WITH THE STRONGEST WINDS IN
SOUTHEAST CA/COLORADO RIVER WHERE A WIND ADVISORY IS POSTED FOR
GUSTS BETWEEN 35 AND 45 MPH.

THE COLD FRONT BY 5 PM LOCAL TIME WILL HAVE JUST MOVED ACROSS THE
COLORADO RIVER...THEN INTO PHOENIX AREA BY 8 PM. THE BEST CHANCE OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS BY 5 PM WILL DEVELOP JUST NORTHWEST AND
NORTH OF BLYTHE CA ALONG THE COLORADO RIVER...AND OVER PORTIONS OF
LA PAZ COUNTY. SHOWERS AND TSTMS DEVELOP ALONG THE COLD FRONT IN
PHOENIX BY 8 PM. IF THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP...THEIR FAST MOVEMENT
COMBINED WITH PRECIP FALLING THROUGH 20-30 KNOT 850-700 MB
SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS COULD CAUSE SUDDEN GUSTS TO PERHAPS 45 MPH.

SINCE THIS IS A FAST MOVING SYSTEM...MOST SHOWERS BY 5 AM SUN WILL
BE CONFINED TO AREAS GENERALLY FROM PHOENIX EASTWARD. SAME FOR THE
SUNDAY AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING PERIOD.

SUNDAY NIGHT...RAPID CLEARING IS EXPECTED.

MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...
DRY NORTHERLY FLOW WILL DEVELOP MONDAY AND TUESDAY FOLLOWED BY A
BUILDING RIDGE OVER THE REGION WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. MUCH WARMER
TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST WEDNESDAY WITH NEAR 100 DEGREE HEAT ON THE
WARMEST DESERTS.

&&

.AVIATION...
SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA INCLUDING KPHX...KIWA...AND KSDL...
APPROACHING UL TROUGH AND COLD FRONT WILL INCREASE WINDS BEGINNING
LATE AM GNLY POST 17Z...BECOMING GUSTY UP TO 25KT OR SO DURING THE
AFTERNOON...EVEN STRONGER TO 30KT SATURDAY EVENING. EXPECT THE
STRONGEST WINDS IN A BURST RIGHT ALONG PASSING COLD FRONT. SOME
TIMING DIFFERENCES REMAIN BETWEEN MODEL FCSTS...BUT LIKELY WINDOW OF
FROPA AND STRONGEST WEST WINDS AROUND 26/02-04Z WINDOW.

PRECIPITATION CHANCES ALSO INCREASE AFTER 21Z...WITH SCATTERED
SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE BEGINNING OVER THE WESTERN DESERTS. VCSH
WILL BEGIN TO FILL IN AROUND PHX METRO PERIPHERY AFTER 26/00Z...WITH
SHOWERS STARTING EARLIER FOR KSDL AND KIWA BEFORE KPHX. CHANCE OF
THUNDER POSSIBLE AS WELL WITH THIS STRONG SYSTEM...SO INCLUDED
OVERNIGHT MENTION OF -TSRA POST-MIDNIGHT LOCAL 26/07Z. CIGS
STARTING OFF IN THE AFTERNOON 7-9KFT BEFORE DROPPING INTO THE 3-5KFT
RANGE WITH ONSET OF STEADY PRECIP LATE IN THE EVENING.


SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA AND SOUTHWEST ARIZONA INCLUDING KIPL AND KBLH...
APPROACHING UL TROUGH WILL PERSIST STRONG WINDS STEADILY INCREASING
AFTER 25/16Z...PEAK GUSTS UP TO 40KT WILL BE COMMON ACROSS THE AREA
BY LATE AFTERNOON CONTINUING INTO THE EVENING HOURS. PERIODS OF
BLOWING DUST REDUCING VISIBILITY DOWN TO 2SM WILL BE COMMON WITH THE
STRONGER WINDS...ESPECIALLY ACROSS IMPERIAL COUNTY AND NEAR YUMA.
12Z TAFS TAKE AIRFIELD VSBYS DOWN TO 5SM BUT CANNOT RULE OUT LOCALLY
LOWER VALUES FOR SHORTER PERIODS. SLANT VSBYS LIKELY IMPACTED DUE TO
LOFTED DUST. THE STRONGEST WINDS TO ABATE LATER INTO THE EVENING BUT
REMAIN ELEVATED IN THE 10-15KT RANGE WITH GUSTS STILL TOWARDS 20KTS.

AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDED TAFS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...
IN THE WAKE OF THE DEPARTING TROUGH...NEXT WEEK WILL SEE THE ARRIVAL
OF A STRONG UPPER RIDGE OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN CONUS FROM MONDAY
THROUGH MOST OF THE WEEK. TEMPERATURES WILL WARM SUBSTANTIALLY AND
APPROACH THE TRIPLE DIGIT MARK FOR THE LATTER PART OF THE WEEK.
AFTERNOON HUMIDITIES WILL DROP INTO THE LOWER TEENS AND UPPER SINGLE
DIGITS WITH FAIR OVERNIGHT RECOVERIES EXPECTED. WINDS WILL BE GNLY
LIGHT AND SHOULD FOLLOW TYPICAL DIURNAL PATTERNS.

&&

.PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AZ...NONE.

CA...WIND ADVISORY FROM 1 PM TO 9 PM PDT TODAY FOR CAZ030>033.

&&

$$

VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/PHOENIX

DISCUSSION...KUHLMAN
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...VASQUEZ
AVIATION...NOLTE
FIRE WEATHER...NOLTE/LEINS



000
FXUS65 KPSR 251615
AFDPSR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PHOENIX AZ
915 AM MST SAT APR 25 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A STRONG COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO MOVE INTO THE REGION LATE THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. AHEAD OF THE FRONT...GUSTY AFTERNOON
SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL DEVELOP...STRONGEST IN SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA AND
THE COLORADO RIVER VALLEY. THE CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
WILL ALSO INCREASE LATE TODAY AND TONIGHT...BUT MAINLY ACROSS
PORTIONS OF SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH CENTRAL ARIZONA. LINGERING SHOWERS
ARE EXPECTED SUNDAY OVER EASTERN ARIZONA...WITH CLEARING OVER
SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA AND SOUTHWEST ARIZONA. DRIER AND MUCH WARMER
WEATHER IS EXPECTED NEXT WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

...POTENT UPPER TROUGH AND FRONTAL PASSAGE ACROSS THE REGION TODAY
WITH STRONG GUSTY WINDS AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES...

INCOMING UPPER TROUGH CONTINUES TO QUICKLY APPROACH FROM THE
NORTHWEST WITH THE MAIN SHORTWAVE IN EAST-CENTRAL CALIFORNIA. A
SECOND SHORTWAVE TROUGH...EASILY SEEN ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY MOVING
INTO SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA...WAS NOT PICKED UP WELL BY THE MODELS AND
MAY GIVE US A BETTER CHANCE OF SHOWERS ACROSS OUR NORTHERN ZONES BY
MID TO LATE AFTERNOON. THE LATEST HRRR RUN SHOWS A BAND OF SHOWERS
QUICKLY DEVELOPING AROUND 21Z ACROSS EASTERN RIVERSIDE COUNTY
CALIFORNIA AND OVER LA PAZ COUNTY ARIZONA AND THEN QUICKLY SPREADING
EASTWARD THROUGH SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA. MODEL POP GUIDANCE STILL IS
A BIT ON THE LOW SIDE...BUT FEEL OUR A BIT MORE AGGRESSIVE FORECAST
POPS ARE JUSTIFIED BASED ON IMPRESSIVE WATER VAPOR SHORTWAVE TROUGH
SIGNATURE. WINDS HAVE YET TO PICK UP MUCH...BUT ONCE THIS FIRST
TROUGH SLIDES EASTWARD THIS AFTERNOON...GUSTY WINDS WILL DEVELOP
OVER SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA AND THEN A BIT LATER OVER SOUTH-CENTRAL
ARIZONA. BEST CHANCES FOR RAIN AND POTENTIALLY A FEW THUNDERSTORMS
STILL SEEMS TO BE CENTERED AROUND 06Z TONIGHT OVER SOUTH-CENTRAL
ARIZONA AS THE MAIN SHORTWAVE TROUGH SWINGS THROUGH.

&&

.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY...
REGIONAL WEATHER BALLOON SOUNDINGS FRIDAY EVENING CONTINUED TO SHOW
A RELATIVELY MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER ABOUT 6 TO 7000 FEET DEEP
EXTENDING FROM SOUTHERN CA TO SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH CENTRAL AZ. THIS
MOISTURE IS SIGNIFICANT RELATIVE TO THE COOLER TEMPS ALOFT...AND
FRONTAL PASSAGE EXPECTED LATE SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

OTHERWISE...A POWERFUL AND FAST MOVING NEGATIVE TILT DIFLUENT TROF
IS STILL FORECAST TO MOVE INTO CENTRAL AZ LATE SATURDAY AFTERNOON
AND EVENING. CURRENT MODELS...SPECIFICALLY THE GFS...IS NOT ONLY A
LITTLE FASTER WITH THE COLD FRONT...BUT IT DEEPENS THE TROF SLIGHTLY
MORE EASTWARD INTO CENTRAL AZ. A VERY PROGRESSIVE UPSTREAM PACIFIC
FLOW PATTERN IS PERHAPS PUSHING THIS SYSTEM FASTER/EASTWARD THAN
EARLIER MODEL RUNS. THEREFORE PRECIP CHANCES ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA...INCLUDING PHOENIX WILL LIKELY START A LITTLE EARLIER...
MEANING LATE AFTERNOON. THE HEAVIEST PRECIP WITH A CHANCE OF TSTMS
HOWEVER IS SLATED FOR THIS EVENING...AFTER DARK...IN SOUTH CENTRAL
AZ.

FOR TODAY AND TONIGHT...
INCREASING CLOUDS BUT NO PRECIP IS EXPECTED THE FIRST HALF OF THE
DAY. BACKING PRE-FRONTAL WINDS AND WARM ADVECTION AHEAD OF THE COLD
FRONT WILL MAKE FOR A WINDY AFTERNOON... WITH THE STRONGEST WINDS IN
SOUTHEAST CA/COLORADO RIVER WHERE A WIND ADVISORY IS POSTED FOR
GUSTS BETWEEN 35 AND 45 MPH.

THE COLD FRONT BY 5 PM LOCAL TIME WILL HAVE JUST MOVED ACROSS THE
COLORADO RIVER...THEN INTO PHOENIX AREA BY 8 PM. THE BEST CHANCE OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS BY 5 PM WILL DEVELOP JUST NORTHWEST AND
NORTH OF BLYTHE CA ALONG THE COLORADO RIVER...AND OVER PORTIONS OF
LA PAZ COUNTY. SHOWERS AND TSTMS DEVELOP ALONG THE COLD FRONT IN
PHOENIX BY 8 PM. IF THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP...THEIR FAST MOVEMENT
COMBINED WITH PRECIP FALLING THROUGH 20-30 KNOT 850-700 MB
SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS COULD CAUSE SUDDEN GUSTS TO PERHAPS 45 MPH.

SINCE THIS IS A FAST MOVING SYSTEM...MOST SHOWERS BY 5 AM SUN WILL
BE CONFINED TO AREAS GENERALLY FROM PHOENIX EASTWARD. SAME FOR THE
SUNDAY AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING PERIOD.

SUNDAY NIGHT...RAPID CLEARING IS EXPECTED.

MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...
DRY NORTHERLY FLOW WILL DEVELOP MONDAY AND TUESDAY FOLLOWED BY A
BUILDING RIDGE OVER THE REGION WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. MUCH WARMER
TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST WEDNESDAY WITH NEAR 100 DEGREE HEAT ON THE
WARMEST DESERTS.

&&

.AVIATION...
SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA INCLUDING KPHX...KIWA...AND KSDL...
APPROACHING UL TROUGH AND COLD FRONT WILL INCREASE WINDS BEGINNING
LATE AM GNLY POST 17Z...BECOMING GUSTY UP TO 25KT OR SO DURING THE
AFTERNOON...EVEN STRONGER TO 30KT SATURDAY EVENING. EXPECT THE
STRONGEST WINDS IN A BURST RIGHT ALONG PASSING COLD FRONT. SOME
TIMING DIFFERENCES REMAIN BETWEEN MODEL FCSTS...BUT LIKELY WINDOW OF
FROPA AND STRONGEST WEST WINDS AROUND 26/02-04Z WINDOW.

PRECIPITATION CHANCES ALSO INCREASE AFTER 21Z...WITH SCATTERED
SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE BEGINNING OVER THE WESTERN DESERTS. VCSH
WILL BEGIN TO FILL IN AROUND PHX METRO PERIPHERY AFTER 26/00Z...WITH
SHOWERS STARTING EARLIER FOR KSDL AND KIWA BEFORE KPHX. CHANCE OF
THUNDER POSSIBLE AS WELL WITH THIS STRONG SYSTEM...SO INCLUDED
OVERNIGHT MENTION OF -TSRA POST-MIDNIGHT LOCAL 26/07Z. CIGS
STARTING OFF IN THE AFTERNOON 7-9KFT BEFORE DROPPING INTO THE 3-5KFT
RANGE WITH ONSET OF STEADY PRECIP LATE IN THE EVENING.


SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA AND SOUTHWEST ARIZONA INCLUDING KIPL AND KBLH...
APPROACHING UL TROUGH WILL PERSIST STRONG WINDS STEADILY INCREASING
AFTER 25/16Z...PEAK GUSTS UP TO 40KT WILL BE COMMON ACROSS THE AREA
BY LATE AFTERNOON CONTINUING INTO THE EVENING HOURS. PERIODS OF
BLOWING DUST REDUCING VISIBILITY DOWN TO 2SM WILL BE COMMON WITH THE
STRONGER WINDS...ESPECIALLY ACROSS IMPERIAL COUNTY AND NEAR YUMA.
12Z TAFS TAKE AIRFIELD VSBYS DOWN TO 5SM BUT CANNOT RULE OUT LOCALLY
LOWER VALUES FOR SHORTER PERIODS. SLANT VSBYS LIKELY IMPACTED DUE TO
LOFTED DUST. THE STRONGEST WINDS TO ABATE LATER INTO THE EVENING BUT
REMAIN ELEVATED IN THE 10-15KT RANGE WITH GUSTS STILL TOWARDS 20KTS.

AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDED TAFS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...
IN THE WAKE OF THE DEPARTING TROUGH...NEXT WEEK WILL SEE THE ARRIVAL
OF A STRONG UPPER RIDGE OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN CONUS FROM MONDAY
THROUGH MOST OF THE WEEK. TEMPERATURES WILL WARM SUBSTANTIALLY AND
APPROACH THE TRIPLE DIGIT MARK FOR THE LATTER PART OF THE WEEK.
AFTERNOON HUMIDITIES WILL DROP INTO THE LOWER TEENS AND UPPER SINGLE
DIGITS WITH FAIR OVERNIGHT RECOVERIES EXPECTED. WINDS WILL BE GNLY
LIGHT AND SHOULD FOLLOW TYPICAL DIURNAL PATTERNS.

&&

.PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AZ...NONE.

CA...WIND ADVISORY FROM 1 PM TO 9 PM PDT TODAY FOR CAZ030>033.

&&

$$

VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/PHOENIX

DISCUSSION...KUHLMAN
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...VASQUEZ
AVIATION...NOLTE
FIRE WEATHER...NOLTE/LEINS



000
FXUS65 KPSR 251615
AFDPSR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PHOENIX AZ
915 AM MST SAT APR 25 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A STRONG COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO MOVE INTO THE REGION LATE THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. AHEAD OF THE FRONT...GUSTY AFTERNOON
SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL DEVELOP...STRONGEST IN SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA AND
THE COLORADO RIVER VALLEY. THE CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
WILL ALSO INCREASE LATE TODAY AND TONIGHT...BUT MAINLY ACROSS
PORTIONS OF SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH CENTRAL ARIZONA. LINGERING SHOWERS
ARE EXPECTED SUNDAY OVER EASTERN ARIZONA...WITH CLEARING OVER
SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA AND SOUTHWEST ARIZONA. DRIER AND MUCH WARMER
WEATHER IS EXPECTED NEXT WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

...POTENT UPPER TROUGH AND FRONTAL PASSAGE ACROSS THE REGION TODAY
WITH STRONG GUSTY WINDS AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES...

INCOMING UPPER TROUGH CONTINUES TO QUICKLY APPROACH FROM THE
NORTHWEST WITH THE MAIN SHORTWAVE IN EAST-CENTRAL CALIFORNIA. A
SECOND SHORTWAVE TROUGH...EASILY SEEN ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY MOVING
INTO SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA...WAS NOT PICKED UP WELL BY THE MODELS AND
MAY GIVE US A BETTER CHANCE OF SHOWERS ACROSS OUR NORTHERN ZONES BY
MID TO LATE AFTERNOON. THE LATEST HRRR RUN SHOWS A BAND OF SHOWERS
QUICKLY DEVELOPING AROUND 21Z ACROSS EASTERN RIVERSIDE COUNTY
CALIFORNIA AND OVER LA PAZ COUNTY ARIZONA AND THEN QUICKLY SPREADING
EASTWARD THROUGH SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA. MODEL POP GUIDANCE STILL IS
A BIT ON THE LOW SIDE...BUT FEEL OUR A BIT MORE AGGRESSIVE FORECAST
POPS ARE JUSTIFIED BASED ON IMPRESSIVE WATER VAPOR SHORTWAVE TROUGH
SIGNATURE. WINDS HAVE YET TO PICK UP MUCH...BUT ONCE THIS FIRST
TROUGH SLIDES EASTWARD THIS AFTERNOON...GUSTY WINDS WILL DEVELOP
OVER SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA AND THEN A BIT LATER OVER SOUTH-CENTRAL
ARIZONA. BEST CHANCES FOR RAIN AND POTENTIALLY A FEW THUNDERSTORMS
STILL SEEMS TO BE CENTERED AROUND 06Z TONIGHT OVER SOUTH-CENTRAL
ARIZONA AS THE MAIN SHORTWAVE TROUGH SWINGS THROUGH.

&&

.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY...
REGIONAL WEATHER BALLOON SOUNDINGS FRIDAY EVENING CONTINUED TO SHOW
A RELATIVELY MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER ABOUT 6 TO 7000 FEET DEEP
EXTENDING FROM SOUTHERN CA TO SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH CENTRAL AZ. THIS
MOISTURE IS SIGNIFICANT RELATIVE TO THE COOLER TEMPS ALOFT...AND
FRONTAL PASSAGE EXPECTED LATE SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

OTHERWISE...A POWERFUL AND FAST MOVING NEGATIVE TILT DIFLUENT TROF
IS STILL FORECAST TO MOVE INTO CENTRAL AZ LATE SATURDAY AFTERNOON
AND EVENING. CURRENT MODELS...SPECIFICALLY THE GFS...IS NOT ONLY A
LITTLE FASTER WITH THE COLD FRONT...BUT IT DEEPENS THE TROF SLIGHTLY
MORE EASTWARD INTO CENTRAL AZ. A VERY PROGRESSIVE UPSTREAM PACIFIC
FLOW PATTERN IS PERHAPS PUSHING THIS SYSTEM FASTER/EASTWARD THAN
EARLIER MODEL RUNS. THEREFORE PRECIP CHANCES ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA...INCLUDING PHOENIX WILL LIKELY START A LITTLE EARLIER...
MEANING LATE AFTERNOON. THE HEAVIEST PRECIP WITH A CHANCE OF TSTMS
HOWEVER IS SLATED FOR THIS EVENING...AFTER DARK...IN SOUTH CENTRAL
AZ.

FOR TODAY AND TONIGHT...
INCREASING CLOUDS BUT NO PRECIP IS EXPECTED THE FIRST HALF OF THE
DAY. BACKING PRE-FRONTAL WINDS AND WARM ADVECTION AHEAD OF THE COLD
FRONT WILL MAKE FOR A WINDY AFTERNOON... WITH THE STRONGEST WINDS IN
SOUTHEAST CA/COLORADO RIVER WHERE A WIND ADVISORY IS POSTED FOR
GUSTS BETWEEN 35 AND 45 MPH.

THE COLD FRONT BY 5 PM LOCAL TIME WILL HAVE JUST MOVED ACROSS THE
COLORADO RIVER...THEN INTO PHOENIX AREA BY 8 PM. THE BEST CHANCE OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS BY 5 PM WILL DEVELOP JUST NORTHWEST AND
NORTH OF BLYTHE CA ALONG THE COLORADO RIVER...AND OVER PORTIONS OF
LA PAZ COUNTY. SHOWERS AND TSTMS DEVELOP ALONG THE COLD FRONT IN
PHOENIX BY 8 PM. IF THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP...THEIR FAST MOVEMENT
COMBINED WITH PRECIP FALLING THROUGH 20-30 KNOT 850-700 MB
SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS COULD CAUSE SUDDEN GUSTS TO PERHAPS 45 MPH.

SINCE THIS IS A FAST MOVING SYSTEM...MOST SHOWERS BY 5 AM SUN WILL
BE CONFINED TO AREAS GENERALLY FROM PHOENIX EASTWARD. SAME FOR THE
SUNDAY AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING PERIOD.

SUNDAY NIGHT...RAPID CLEARING IS EXPECTED.

MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...
DRY NORTHERLY FLOW WILL DEVELOP MONDAY AND TUESDAY FOLLOWED BY A
BUILDING RIDGE OVER THE REGION WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. MUCH WARMER
TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST WEDNESDAY WITH NEAR 100 DEGREE HEAT ON THE
WARMEST DESERTS.

&&

.AVIATION...
SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA INCLUDING KPHX...KIWA...AND KSDL...
APPROACHING UL TROUGH AND COLD FRONT WILL INCREASE WINDS BEGINNING
LATE AM GNLY POST 17Z...BECOMING GUSTY UP TO 25KT OR SO DURING THE
AFTERNOON...EVEN STRONGER TO 30KT SATURDAY EVENING. EXPECT THE
STRONGEST WINDS IN A BURST RIGHT ALONG PASSING COLD FRONT. SOME
TIMING DIFFERENCES REMAIN BETWEEN MODEL FCSTS...BUT LIKELY WINDOW OF
FROPA AND STRONGEST WEST WINDS AROUND 26/02-04Z WINDOW.

PRECIPITATION CHANCES ALSO INCREASE AFTER 21Z...WITH SCATTERED
SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE BEGINNING OVER THE WESTERN DESERTS. VCSH
WILL BEGIN TO FILL IN AROUND PHX METRO PERIPHERY AFTER 26/00Z...WITH
SHOWERS STARTING EARLIER FOR KSDL AND KIWA BEFORE KPHX. CHANCE OF
THUNDER POSSIBLE AS WELL WITH THIS STRONG SYSTEM...SO INCLUDED
OVERNIGHT MENTION OF -TSRA POST-MIDNIGHT LOCAL 26/07Z. CIGS
STARTING OFF IN THE AFTERNOON 7-9KFT BEFORE DROPPING INTO THE 3-5KFT
RANGE WITH ONSET OF STEADY PRECIP LATE IN THE EVENING.


SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA AND SOUTHWEST ARIZONA INCLUDING KIPL AND KBLH...
APPROACHING UL TROUGH WILL PERSIST STRONG WINDS STEADILY INCREASING
AFTER 25/16Z...PEAK GUSTS UP TO 40KT WILL BE COMMON ACROSS THE AREA
BY LATE AFTERNOON CONTINUING INTO THE EVENING HOURS. PERIODS OF
BLOWING DUST REDUCING VISIBILITY DOWN TO 2SM WILL BE COMMON WITH THE
STRONGER WINDS...ESPECIALLY ACROSS IMPERIAL COUNTY AND NEAR YUMA.
12Z TAFS TAKE AIRFIELD VSBYS DOWN TO 5SM BUT CANNOT RULE OUT LOCALLY
LOWER VALUES FOR SHORTER PERIODS. SLANT VSBYS LIKELY IMPACTED DUE TO
LOFTED DUST. THE STRONGEST WINDS TO ABATE LATER INTO THE EVENING BUT
REMAIN ELEVATED IN THE 10-15KT RANGE WITH GUSTS STILL TOWARDS 20KTS.

AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDED TAFS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...
IN THE WAKE OF THE DEPARTING TROUGH...NEXT WEEK WILL SEE THE ARRIVAL
OF A STRONG UPPER RIDGE OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN CONUS FROM MONDAY
THROUGH MOST OF THE WEEK. TEMPERATURES WILL WARM SUBSTANTIALLY AND
APPROACH THE TRIPLE DIGIT MARK FOR THE LATTER PART OF THE WEEK.
AFTERNOON HUMIDITIES WILL DROP INTO THE LOWER TEENS AND UPPER SINGLE
DIGITS WITH FAIR OVERNIGHT RECOVERIES EXPECTED. WINDS WILL BE GNLY
LIGHT AND SHOULD FOLLOW TYPICAL DIURNAL PATTERNS.

&&

.PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AZ...NONE.

CA...WIND ADVISORY FROM 1 PM TO 9 PM PDT TODAY FOR CAZ030>033.

&&

$$

VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/PHOENIX

DISCUSSION...KUHLMAN
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...VASQUEZ
AVIATION...NOLTE
FIRE WEATHER...NOLTE/LEINS



000
FXUS65 KPSR 251615
AFDPSR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PHOENIX AZ
915 AM MST SAT APR 25 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A STRONG COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO MOVE INTO THE REGION LATE THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. AHEAD OF THE FRONT...GUSTY AFTERNOON
SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL DEVELOP...STRONGEST IN SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA AND
THE COLORADO RIVER VALLEY. THE CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
WILL ALSO INCREASE LATE TODAY AND TONIGHT...BUT MAINLY ACROSS
PORTIONS OF SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH CENTRAL ARIZONA. LINGERING SHOWERS
ARE EXPECTED SUNDAY OVER EASTERN ARIZONA...WITH CLEARING OVER
SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA AND SOUTHWEST ARIZONA. DRIER AND MUCH WARMER
WEATHER IS EXPECTED NEXT WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

...POTENT UPPER TROUGH AND FRONTAL PASSAGE ACROSS THE REGION TODAY
WITH STRONG GUSTY WINDS AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES...

INCOMING UPPER TROUGH CONTINUES TO QUICKLY APPROACH FROM THE
NORTHWEST WITH THE MAIN SHORTWAVE IN EAST-CENTRAL CALIFORNIA. A
SECOND SHORTWAVE TROUGH...EASILY SEEN ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY MOVING
INTO SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA...WAS NOT PICKED UP WELL BY THE MODELS AND
MAY GIVE US A BETTER CHANCE OF SHOWERS ACROSS OUR NORTHERN ZONES BY
MID TO LATE AFTERNOON. THE LATEST HRRR RUN SHOWS A BAND OF SHOWERS
QUICKLY DEVELOPING AROUND 21Z ACROSS EASTERN RIVERSIDE COUNTY
CALIFORNIA AND OVER LA PAZ COUNTY ARIZONA AND THEN QUICKLY SPREADING
EASTWARD THROUGH SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA. MODEL POP GUIDANCE STILL IS
A BIT ON THE LOW SIDE...BUT FEEL OUR A BIT MORE AGGRESSIVE FORECAST
POPS ARE JUSTIFIED BASED ON IMPRESSIVE WATER VAPOR SHORTWAVE TROUGH
SIGNATURE. WINDS HAVE YET TO PICK UP MUCH...BUT ONCE THIS FIRST
TROUGH SLIDES EASTWARD THIS AFTERNOON...GUSTY WINDS WILL DEVELOP
OVER SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA AND THEN A BIT LATER OVER SOUTH-CENTRAL
ARIZONA. BEST CHANCES FOR RAIN AND POTENTIALLY A FEW THUNDERSTORMS
STILL SEEMS TO BE CENTERED AROUND 06Z TONIGHT OVER SOUTH-CENTRAL
ARIZONA AS THE MAIN SHORTWAVE TROUGH SWINGS THROUGH.

&&

.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY...
REGIONAL WEATHER BALLOON SOUNDINGS FRIDAY EVENING CONTINUED TO SHOW
A RELATIVELY MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER ABOUT 6 TO 7000 FEET DEEP
EXTENDING FROM SOUTHERN CA TO SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH CENTRAL AZ. THIS
MOISTURE IS SIGNIFICANT RELATIVE TO THE COOLER TEMPS ALOFT...AND
FRONTAL PASSAGE EXPECTED LATE SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

OTHERWISE...A POWERFUL AND FAST MOVING NEGATIVE TILT DIFLUENT TROF
IS STILL FORECAST TO MOVE INTO CENTRAL AZ LATE SATURDAY AFTERNOON
AND EVENING. CURRENT MODELS...SPECIFICALLY THE GFS...IS NOT ONLY A
LITTLE FASTER WITH THE COLD FRONT...BUT IT DEEPENS THE TROF SLIGHTLY
MORE EASTWARD INTO CENTRAL AZ. A VERY PROGRESSIVE UPSTREAM PACIFIC
FLOW PATTERN IS PERHAPS PUSHING THIS SYSTEM FASTER/EASTWARD THAN
EARLIER MODEL RUNS. THEREFORE PRECIP CHANCES ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA...INCLUDING PHOENIX WILL LIKELY START A LITTLE EARLIER...
MEANING LATE AFTERNOON. THE HEAVIEST PRECIP WITH A CHANCE OF TSTMS
HOWEVER IS SLATED FOR THIS EVENING...AFTER DARK...IN SOUTH CENTRAL
AZ.

FOR TODAY AND TONIGHT...
INCREASING CLOUDS BUT NO PRECIP IS EXPECTED THE FIRST HALF OF THE
DAY. BACKING PRE-FRONTAL WINDS AND WARM ADVECTION AHEAD OF THE COLD
FRONT WILL MAKE FOR A WINDY AFTERNOON... WITH THE STRONGEST WINDS IN
SOUTHEAST CA/COLORADO RIVER WHERE A WIND ADVISORY IS POSTED FOR
GUSTS BETWEEN 35 AND 45 MPH.

THE COLD FRONT BY 5 PM LOCAL TIME WILL HAVE JUST MOVED ACROSS THE
COLORADO RIVER...THEN INTO PHOENIX AREA BY 8 PM. THE BEST CHANCE OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS BY 5 PM WILL DEVELOP JUST NORTHWEST AND
NORTH OF BLYTHE CA ALONG THE COLORADO RIVER...AND OVER PORTIONS OF
LA PAZ COUNTY. SHOWERS AND TSTMS DEVELOP ALONG THE COLD FRONT IN
PHOENIX BY 8 PM. IF THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP...THEIR FAST MOVEMENT
COMBINED WITH PRECIP FALLING THROUGH 20-30 KNOT 850-700 MB
SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS COULD CAUSE SUDDEN GUSTS TO PERHAPS 45 MPH.

SINCE THIS IS A FAST MOVING SYSTEM...MOST SHOWERS BY 5 AM SUN WILL
BE CONFINED TO AREAS GENERALLY FROM PHOENIX EASTWARD. SAME FOR THE
SUNDAY AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING PERIOD.

SUNDAY NIGHT...RAPID CLEARING IS EXPECTED.

MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...
DRY NORTHERLY FLOW WILL DEVELOP MONDAY AND TUESDAY FOLLOWED BY A
BUILDING RIDGE OVER THE REGION WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. MUCH WARMER
TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST WEDNESDAY WITH NEAR 100 DEGREE HEAT ON THE
WARMEST DESERTS.

&&

.AVIATION...
SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA INCLUDING KPHX...KIWA...AND KSDL...
APPROACHING UL TROUGH AND COLD FRONT WILL INCREASE WINDS BEGINNING
LATE AM GNLY POST 17Z...BECOMING GUSTY UP TO 25KT OR SO DURING THE
AFTERNOON...EVEN STRONGER TO 30KT SATURDAY EVENING. EXPECT THE
STRONGEST WINDS IN A BURST RIGHT ALONG PASSING COLD FRONT. SOME
TIMING DIFFERENCES REMAIN BETWEEN MODEL FCSTS...BUT LIKELY WINDOW OF
FROPA AND STRONGEST WEST WINDS AROUND 26/02-04Z WINDOW.

PRECIPITATION CHANCES ALSO INCREASE AFTER 21Z...WITH SCATTERED
SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE BEGINNING OVER THE WESTERN DESERTS. VCSH
WILL BEGIN TO FILL IN AROUND PHX METRO PERIPHERY AFTER 26/00Z...WITH
SHOWERS STARTING EARLIER FOR KSDL AND KIWA BEFORE KPHX. CHANCE OF
THUNDER POSSIBLE AS WELL WITH THIS STRONG SYSTEM...SO INCLUDED
OVERNIGHT MENTION OF -TSRA POST-MIDNIGHT LOCAL 26/07Z. CIGS
STARTING OFF IN THE AFTERNOON 7-9KFT BEFORE DROPPING INTO THE 3-5KFT
RANGE WITH ONSET OF STEADY PRECIP LATE IN THE EVENING.


SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA AND SOUTHWEST ARIZONA INCLUDING KIPL AND KBLH...
APPROACHING UL TROUGH WILL PERSIST STRONG WINDS STEADILY INCREASING
AFTER 25/16Z...PEAK GUSTS UP TO 40KT WILL BE COMMON ACROSS THE AREA
BY LATE AFTERNOON CONTINUING INTO THE EVENING HOURS. PERIODS OF
BLOWING DUST REDUCING VISIBILITY DOWN TO 2SM WILL BE COMMON WITH THE
STRONGER WINDS...ESPECIALLY ACROSS IMPERIAL COUNTY AND NEAR YUMA.
12Z TAFS TAKE AIRFIELD VSBYS DOWN TO 5SM BUT CANNOT RULE OUT LOCALLY
LOWER VALUES FOR SHORTER PERIODS. SLANT VSBYS LIKELY IMPACTED DUE TO
LOFTED DUST. THE STRONGEST WINDS TO ABATE LATER INTO THE EVENING BUT
REMAIN ELEVATED IN THE 10-15KT RANGE WITH GUSTS STILL TOWARDS 20KTS.

AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDED TAFS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...
IN THE WAKE OF THE DEPARTING TROUGH...NEXT WEEK WILL SEE THE ARRIVAL
OF A STRONG UPPER RIDGE OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN CONUS FROM MONDAY
THROUGH MOST OF THE WEEK. TEMPERATURES WILL WARM SUBSTANTIALLY AND
APPROACH THE TRIPLE DIGIT MARK FOR THE LATTER PART OF THE WEEK.
AFTERNOON HUMIDITIES WILL DROP INTO THE LOWER TEENS AND UPPER SINGLE
DIGITS WITH FAIR OVERNIGHT RECOVERIES EXPECTED. WINDS WILL BE GNLY
LIGHT AND SHOULD FOLLOW TYPICAL DIURNAL PATTERNS.

&&

.PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AZ...NONE.

CA...WIND ADVISORY FROM 1 PM TO 9 PM PDT TODAY FOR CAZ030>033.

&&

$$

VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/PHOENIX

DISCUSSION...KUHLMAN
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...VASQUEZ
AVIATION...NOLTE
FIRE WEATHER...NOLTE/LEINS




000
FXUS65 KTWC 251607
AFDTWC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ
907 AM MST SAT APR 25 2015

.SYNOPSIS...GUSTY WINDS WILL OCCUR TODAY FOLLOWED BY A GOOD CHANCE
OF SHOWERS TONIGHT AND SUNDAY AS A VIGOROUS LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
MOVES ACROSS THE FOUR CORNERS REGION. COOLER TEMPERATURES WILL ALSO
OCCUR SUNDAY. A FEW LINGERING SHOWERS MAY OCCUR ACROSS THE WHITE
MOUNTAINS MONDAY. OTHERWISE...DRY CONDITIONS WITH A STRONG WARMING
TREND WILL PREVAIL MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND 25/12Z UPPER-AIR PLOTS SHOW
WEAK RIDGING TO OUR EAST WITH AN APPROACHING TROUGH OVER NORTHERN
CALIFORNIA. VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES
ACROSS SOUTHERN ARIZONA...BUT FARTHER TO THE WEST THROUGH NORTHEAST
EXTENSIVE CLOUDINESS AHEAD OF THIS TROUGH COVER MUCH OF
CALIFORNIA...NEVADA...UTAH AND PARTS OF NORTHERN ARIZONA...NORTHWEST
NEW MEXICO AND WESTERN COLORADO.

AS OF 16Z (9 AM MST)...TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE REGION WERE GENERALLY
IN THE 60S FOR DESERT/VALLEY LOCATIONS. THESE READINGS ARE MOSTLY ON
TRACK WITH EXPECTED AFTERNOON HIGH TEMPERATURES...SO NO CHANGES ARE
PLANNED AT THIS TIME...BUT WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR AND WILL MAKE
ADJUSTMENTS IF WARRANTED. OTHERWISE...THE FORECAST FOR THE REMAINDER
OF TODAY IS IN GOOD SHAPE.

FOR DETAILS REGARDING THE FORECAST BEYOND TODAY...PLEASE REFER TO
THE PREVIOUS DISCUSSION BELOW.

&&

.AVIATION...VALID THRU 26/18Z. FEW-SCT CLOUDS AROUND 8-10K FT AGL
WILL PREVAIL THRU THIS AFTERNOON. SURFACE WIND AT GENERALLY LESS
THAN 10 KTS THIS MORNING WILL INCREASE THROUGH 19Z...BECOMING
WLY/SWLY AT 15-22 KTS WITH GUSTS OF 25-35 KTS. THE STRONGEST WINDS
SHOULD OCCUR SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST OF KTUS THIS AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY
IN THE VICINITY OF KALK AND KDUG. WINDS WILL DECREASE TO GENERALLY
LESS THAN 15 KTS WITH A FEW GUSTS TO AROUND 20 KTS AFTER 26/03Z.
INCREASING CLOUDS AND LOWERING CLOUD HEIGHTS THIS EVENING WILL GIVE
WAY TO CHANCES OF -SHRA THROUGH SUNDAY. RAIN CHANCES WILL BE BEST TO
THE NORTH OF A KTUS-KSAD LINE. AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR
TAF AMENDMENTS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...GUSTY WEST TO SOUTHWEST WINDS AT 15-25 MPH AND A FEW
GUSTS TO AROUND 40 MPH WILL OCCUR THIS AFTERNOON FOLLOWED BY A
CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY. THE
STRONGEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED IN THE SOUTHEAST CORNER OF THE
STATE...WHILE SHOWER CHANCES ARE BEST NORTH OF A LINE FROM ABOUT
TUCSON TO SAFFORD. ANY SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF
PRODUCING BRIEF GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS. SOME SPOTTY AND MARGINAL
RED FLAG CONDITIONS MAY OCCUR THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS THE EXTREME
SOUTHEAST CORNER OF COCHISE COUNTY...WITH HUMIDITY LEVELS HOVERING
RIGHT AROUND 15 PCT.

ANOTHER ROUND OF GUSTY WINDS IS EXPECTED SUNDAY AFTERNOON...WITH
SOME AREAS ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST CORNER OF THE STATE APPROACHING WIND
ADVISORY CRITERIA. A FEW LINGERING SHOWERS MAY PREVAIL ACROSS THE
WHITE MOUNTAINS MONDAY. OTHERWISE...EXPECT DRY CONDITIONS WITH A
PRONOUNCED WARMING TREND MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...A STORM SYSTEM FORECAST TO PASS THROUGH THE FOUR
CORNERS REGION ON SUNDAY WILL BRING GUSTY WINDS TO THE AREA TODAY AS
IT APPROACHES. THE CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE
ON THE INCREASE LATER TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY. THE SYSTEM WILL ALSO
USHER IN COLDER TEMPERATURES WITH THE SNOW LEVEL LOWERING TO 7-8KFT
EARLY SUNDAY. TOTAL SNOW ACCUMULATIONS OF LESS THAN 6 INCHES CAN BE
EXPECTED IN THE WHITE MOUNTAINS. MODELS TRACK THE SYSTEM EAST OF THE
REGION SUNDAY NIGHT WITH A STRONG RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT
BUILDING OVER THE AREA EARLY NEXT WEEK. THIS RIDGE WILL RESULT IN
SIGNIFICANTLY WARMER DAYTIME TEMPERATURES BY WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.

&&

.TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...YOUTUBE...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/TUCSON




000
FXUS65 KTWC 251607
AFDTWC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ
907 AM MST SAT APR 25 2015

.SYNOPSIS...GUSTY WINDS WILL OCCUR TODAY FOLLOWED BY A GOOD CHANCE
OF SHOWERS TONIGHT AND SUNDAY AS A VIGOROUS LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
MOVES ACROSS THE FOUR CORNERS REGION. COOLER TEMPERATURES WILL ALSO
OCCUR SUNDAY. A FEW LINGERING SHOWERS MAY OCCUR ACROSS THE WHITE
MOUNTAINS MONDAY. OTHERWISE...DRY CONDITIONS WITH A STRONG WARMING
TREND WILL PREVAIL MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND 25/12Z UPPER-AIR PLOTS SHOW
WEAK RIDGING TO OUR EAST WITH AN APPROACHING TROUGH OVER NORTHERN
CALIFORNIA. VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES
ACROSS SOUTHERN ARIZONA...BUT FARTHER TO THE WEST THROUGH NORTHEAST
EXTENSIVE CLOUDINESS AHEAD OF THIS TROUGH COVER MUCH OF
CALIFORNIA...NEVADA...UTAH AND PARTS OF NORTHERN ARIZONA...NORTHWEST
NEW MEXICO AND WESTERN COLORADO.

AS OF 16Z (9 AM MST)...TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE REGION WERE GENERALLY
IN THE 60S FOR DESERT/VALLEY LOCATIONS. THESE READINGS ARE MOSTLY ON
TRACK WITH EXPECTED AFTERNOON HIGH TEMPERATURES...SO NO CHANGES ARE
PLANNED AT THIS TIME...BUT WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR AND WILL MAKE
ADJUSTMENTS IF WARRANTED. OTHERWISE...THE FORECAST FOR THE REMAINDER
OF TODAY IS IN GOOD SHAPE.

FOR DETAILS REGARDING THE FORECAST BEYOND TODAY...PLEASE REFER TO
THE PREVIOUS DISCUSSION BELOW.

&&

.AVIATION...VALID THRU 26/18Z. FEW-SCT CLOUDS AROUND 8-10K FT AGL
WILL PREVAIL THRU THIS AFTERNOON. SURFACE WIND AT GENERALLY LESS
THAN 10 KTS THIS MORNING WILL INCREASE THROUGH 19Z...BECOMING
WLY/SWLY AT 15-22 KTS WITH GUSTS OF 25-35 KTS. THE STRONGEST WINDS
SHOULD OCCUR SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST OF KTUS THIS AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY
IN THE VICINITY OF KALK AND KDUG. WINDS WILL DECREASE TO GENERALLY
LESS THAN 15 KTS WITH A FEW GUSTS TO AROUND 20 KTS AFTER 26/03Z.
INCREASING CLOUDS AND LOWERING CLOUD HEIGHTS THIS EVENING WILL GIVE
WAY TO CHANCES OF -SHRA THROUGH SUNDAY. RAIN CHANCES WILL BE BEST TO
THE NORTH OF A KTUS-KSAD LINE. AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR
TAF AMENDMENTS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...GUSTY WEST TO SOUTHWEST WINDS AT 15-25 MPH AND A FEW
GUSTS TO AROUND 40 MPH WILL OCCUR THIS AFTERNOON FOLLOWED BY A
CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY. THE
STRONGEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED IN THE SOUTHEAST CORNER OF THE
STATE...WHILE SHOWER CHANCES ARE BEST NORTH OF A LINE FROM ABOUT
TUCSON TO SAFFORD. ANY SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF
PRODUCING BRIEF GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS. SOME SPOTTY AND MARGINAL
RED FLAG CONDITIONS MAY OCCUR THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS THE EXTREME
SOUTHEAST CORNER OF COCHISE COUNTY...WITH HUMIDITY LEVELS HOVERING
RIGHT AROUND 15 PCT.

ANOTHER ROUND OF GUSTY WINDS IS EXPECTED SUNDAY AFTERNOON...WITH
SOME AREAS ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST CORNER OF THE STATE APPROACHING WIND
ADVISORY CRITERIA. A FEW LINGERING SHOWERS MAY PREVAIL ACROSS THE
WHITE MOUNTAINS MONDAY. OTHERWISE...EXPECT DRY CONDITIONS WITH A
PRONOUNCED WARMING TREND MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...A STORM SYSTEM FORECAST TO PASS THROUGH THE FOUR
CORNERS REGION ON SUNDAY WILL BRING GUSTY WINDS TO THE AREA TODAY AS
IT APPROACHES. THE CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE
ON THE INCREASE LATER TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY. THE SYSTEM WILL ALSO
USHER IN COLDER TEMPERATURES WITH THE SNOW LEVEL LOWERING TO 7-8KFT
EARLY SUNDAY. TOTAL SNOW ACCUMULATIONS OF LESS THAN 6 INCHES CAN BE
EXPECTED IN THE WHITE MOUNTAINS. MODELS TRACK THE SYSTEM EAST OF THE
REGION SUNDAY NIGHT WITH A STRONG RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT
BUILDING OVER THE AREA EARLY NEXT WEEK. THIS RIDGE WILL RESULT IN
SIGNIFICANTLY WARMER DAYTIME TEMPERATURES BY WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.

&&

.TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...YOUTUBE...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/TUCSON



000
FXUS65 KPSR 251216
AFDPSR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PHOENIX AZ
515 AM MST SAT APR 25 2015

...POTENT UPPER TROUGH AND FRONTAL PASSAGE ACROSS THE REGION
TODAY WITH STRONG GUSTY WINDS AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES...

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
A STRONG COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO MOVE INTO THE REGION LATE THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. AHEAD OF THE FRONT...GUSTY AFTERNOON
SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL DEVELOP...STRONGEST IN SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA AND
THE COLORADO RIVER VALLEY. THE CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
WILL ALSO INCREASE LATE TODAY AND TONIGHT...BUT MAINLY ACROSS
PORTIONS OF SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH CENTRAL ARIZONA. LINGERING SHOWERS
ARE EXPECTED SUNDAY OVER EASTERN ARIZONA...WITH CLEARING OVER
SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA AND SOUTHWEST ARIZONA. DRIER AND MUCH WARMER
WEATHER IS EXPECTED NEXT WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

NOTE: A STRONG CLASSICAL COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE IS EXPECTED IN
CENTRAL AZ SATURDAY EVENING WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR BRIEF HEAVY RAIN
AND STRONG THUNDERSTORM WIND.

TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY...
REGIONAL WEATHER BALLOON SOUNDINGS FRIDAY EVENING CONTINUED TO SHOW
A RELATIVELY MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER ABOUT 6 TO 7000 FEET DEEP
EXTENDING FROM SOUTHERN CA TO SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH CENTRAL AZ. THIS
MOISTURE IS SIGNIFICANT RELATIVE TO THE COOLER TEMPS ALOFT...AND
FRONTAL PASSAGE EXPECTED LATE SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

OTHERWISE...A POWERFUL AND FAST MOVING NEGATIVE TILT DIFLUENT TROF
IS STILL FORECAST TO MOVE INTO CENTRAL AZ LATE SATURDAY AFTERNOON
AND EVENING. CURRENT MODELS...SPECIFICALLY THE GFS...IS NOT ONLY A
LITTLE FASTER WITH THE COLD FRONT...BUT IT DEEPENS THE TROF SLIGHTLY
MORE EASTWARD INTO CENTRAL AZ. A VERY PROGRESSIVE UPSTREAM PACIFIC
FLOW PATTERN IS PERHAPS PUSHING THIS SYSTEM FASTER/EASTWARD THAN
EARLIER MODEL RUNS. THEREFORE PRECIP CHANCES ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA...INCLUDING PHOENIX WILL LIKELY START A LITTLE EARLIER...
MEANING LATE AFTERNOON. THE HEAVIEST PRECIP WITH A CHANCE OF TSTMS
HOWEVER IS SLATED FOR THIS EVENING...AFTER DARK...IN SOUTH CENTRAL
AZ.

FOR TODAY AND TONIGHT...
INCREASING CLOUDS BUT NO PRECIP IS EXPECTED THE FIRST HALF OF THE
DAY. BACKING PRE-FRONTAL WINDS AND WARM ADVECTION AHEAD OF THE COLD
FRONT WILL MAKE FOR A WINDY AFTERNOON... WITH THE STRONGEST WINDS IN
SOUTHEAST CA/COLORADO RIVER WHERE A WIND ADVISORY IS POSTED FOR
GUSTS BETWEEN 35 AND 45 MPH.

THE COLD FRONT BY 5 PM LOCAL TIME WILL HAVE JUST MOVED ACROSS THE
COLORADO RIVER...THEN INTO PHOENIX AREA BY 8 PM. THE BEST CHANCE OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS BY 5 PM WILL DEVELOP JUST NORTHWEST AND
NORTH OF BLYTHE CA ALONG THE COLORADO RIVER...AND OVER PORTIONS OF
LA PAZ COUNTY. SHOWERS AND TSTMS DEVELOP ALONG THE COLD FRONT IN
PHOENIX BY 8 PM. IF THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP...THEIR FAST MOVEMENT
COMBINED WITH PRECIP FALLING THROUGH 20-30 KNOT 850-700 MB
SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS COULD CAUSE SUDDEN GUSTS TO PERHAPS 45 MPH.

SINCE THIS IS A FAST MOVING SYSTEM...MOST SHOWERS BY 5 AM SUN WILL
BE CONFINED TO AREAS GENERALLY FROM PHOENIX EASTWARD. SAME FOR THE
SUNDAY AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING PERIOD.

SUNDAY NIGHT...RAPID CLEARING IS EXPECTED.

MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...
DRY NORTHERLY FLOW WILL DEVELOP MONDAY AND TUESDAY FOLLOWED BY A
BUILDING RIDGE OVER THE REGION WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. MUCH WARMER
TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST WEDNESDAY WITH NEAR 100 DEGREE HEAT ON THE
WARMEST DESERTS.

&&

.AVIATION...
SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA INCLUDING KPHX...KIWA...AND KSDL...
APPROACHING UL TROUGH AND COLD FRONT WILL INCREASE WINDS BEGINNING
LATE AM GNLY POST 17Z...BECOMING GUSTY UP TO 25KT OR SO DURING THE
AFTERNOON...EVEN STRONGER TO 30KT SATURDAY EVENING. EXPECT THE
STRONGEST WINDS IN A BURST RIGHT ALONG PASSING COLD FRONT. SOME
TIMING DIFFERENCES REMAIN BETWEEN MODEL FCSTS...BUT LIKELY WINDOW OF
FROPA AND STRONGEST WEST WINDS AROUND 26/02-04Z WINDOW.

PRECIPITATION CHANCES ALSO INCREASE AFTER 21Z...WITH SCATTERED
SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE BEGINNING OVER THE WESTERN DESERTS. VCSH
WILL BEGIN TO FILL IN AROUND PHX METRO PERIPHERY AFTER 26/00Z...WITH
SHOWERS STARTING EARLIER FOR KSDL AND KIWA BEFORE KPHX. CHANCE OF
THUNDER POSSIBLE AS WELL WITH THIS STRONG SYSTEM...SO INCLUDED
OVERNIGHT MENTION OF -TSRA POST-MIDNIGHT LOCAL 26/07Z. CIGS
STARTING OFF IN THE AFTERNOON 7-9KFT BEFORE DROPPING INTO THE 3-5KFT
RANGE WITH ONSET OF STEADY PRECIP LATE IN THE EVENING.


SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA AND SOUTHWEST ARIZONA INCLUDING KIPL AND KBLH...
APPROACHING UL TROUGH WILL PERSIST STRONG WINDS STEADILY INCREASING
AFTER 25/16Z...PEAK GUSTS UP TO 40KT WILL BE COMMON ACROSS THE AREA
BY LATE AFTERNOON CONTINUING INTO THE EVENING HOURS. PERIODS OF
BLOWING DUST REDUCING VISIBILITY DOWN TO 2SM WILL BE COMMON WITH THE
STRONGER WINDS...ESPECIALLY ACROSS IMPERIAL COUNTY AND NEAR YUMA.
12Z TAFS TAKE AIRFIELD VSBYS DOWN TO 5SM BUT CANNOT RULE OUT LOCALLY
LOWER VALUES FOR SHORTER PERIODS. SLANT VSBYS LIKELY IMPACTED DUE TO
LOFTED DUST. THE STRONGEST WINDS TO ABATE LATER INTO THE EVENING BUT
REMAIN ELEVATED IN THE 10-15KT RANGE WITH GUSTS STILL TOWARDS 20KTS.

AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDED TAFS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...
IN THE WAKE OF THE DEPARTING TROUGH...NEXT WEEK WILL SEE THE ARRIVAL
OF A STRONG UPPER RIDGE OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN CONUS FROM MONDAY
THROUGH MOST OF THE WEEK. TEMPERATURES WILL WARM SUBSTANTIALLY AND
APPROACH THE TRIPLE DIGIT MARK FOR THE LATTER PART OF THE WEEK.
AFTERNOON HUMIDITIES WILL DROP INTO THE LOWER TEENS AND UPPER SINGLE
DIGITS WITH FAIR OVERNIGHT RECOVERIES EXPECTED. WINDS WILL BE GNLY
LIGHT AND SHOULD FOLLOW TYPICAL DIURNAL PATTERNS.

&&

.PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AZ...NONE.

CA...WIND ADVISORY FROM 1 PM TO 9 PM PDT TODAY FOR CAZ030>033.

&&

$$

VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/PHOENIX

DISCUSSION...VASQUEZ
AVIATION...NOLTE
FIRE WEATHER...NOLTE/LEINS



000
FXUS65 KPSR 251216
AFDPSR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PHOENIX AZ
515 AM MST SAT APR 25 2015

...POTENT UPPER TROUGH AND FRONTAL PASSAGE ACROSS THE REGION
TODAY WITH STRONG GUSTY WINDS AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES...

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
A STRONG COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO MOVE INTO THE REGION LATE THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. AHEAD OF THE FRONT...GUSTY AFTERNOON
SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL DEVELOP...STRONGEST IN SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA AND
THE COLORADO RIVER VALLEY. THE CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
WILL ALSO INCREASE LATE TODAY AND TONIGHT...BUT MAINLY ACROSS
PORTIONS OF SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH CENTRAL ARIZONA. LINGERING SHOWERS
ARE EXPECTED SUNDAY OVER EASTERN ARIZONA...WITH CLEARING OVER
SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA AND SOUTHWEST ARIZONA. DRIER AND MUCH WARMER
WEATHER IS EXPECTED NEXT WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

NOTE: A STRONG CLASSICAL COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE IS EXPECTED IN
CENTRAL AZ SATURDAY EVENING WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR BRIEF HEAVY RAIN
AND STRONG THUNDERSTORM WIND.

TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY...
REGIONAL WEATHER BALLOON SOUNDINGS FRIDAY EVENING CONTINUED TO SHOW
A RELATIVELY MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER ABOUT 6 TO 7000 FEET DEEP
EXTENDING FROM SOUTHERN CA TO SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH CENTRAL AZ. THIS
MOISTURE IS SIGNIFICANT RELATIVE TO THE COOLER TEMPS ALOFT...AND
FRONTAL PASSAGE EXPECTED LATE SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

OTHERWISE...A POWERFUL AND FAST MOVING NEGATIVE TILT DIFLUENT TROF
IS STILL FORECAST TO MOVE INTO CENTRAL AZ LATE SATURDAY AFTERNOON
AND EVENING. CURRENT MODELS...SPECIFICALLY THE GFS...IS NOT ONLY A
LITTLE FASTER WITH THE COLD FRONT...BUT IT DEEPENS THE TROF SLIGHTLY
MORE EASTWARD INTO CENTRAL AZ. A VERY PROGRESSIVE UPSTREAM PACIFIC
FLOW PATTERN IS PERHAPS PUSHING THIS SYSTEM FASTER/EASTWARD THAN
EARLIER MODEL RUNS. THEREFORE PRECIP CHANCES ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA...INCLUDING PHOENIX WILL LIKELY START A LITTLE EARLIER...
MEANING LATE AFTERNOON. THE HEAVIEST PRECIP WITH A CHANCE OF TSTMS
HOWEVER IS SLATED FOR THIS EVENING...AFTER DARK...IN SOUTH CENTRAL
AZ.

FOR TODAY AND TONIGHT...
INCREASING CLOUDS BUT NO PRECIP IS EXPECTED THE FIRST HALF OF THE
DAY. BACKING PRE-FRONTAL WINDS AND WARM ADVECTION AHEAD OF THE COLD
FRONT WILL MAKE FOR A WINDY AFTERNOON... WITH THE STRONGEST WINDS IN
SOUTHEAST CA/COLORADO RIVER WHERE A WIND ADVISORY IS POSTED FOR
GUSTS BETWEEN 35 AND 45 MPH.

THE COLD FRONT BY 5 PM LOCAL TIME WILL HAVE JUST MOVED ACROSS THE
COLORADO RIVER...THEN INTO PHOENIX AREA BY 8 PM. THE BEST CHANCE OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS BY 5 PM WILL DEVELOP JUST NORTHWEST AND
NORTH OF BLYTHE CA ALONG THE COLORADO RIVER...AND OVER PORTIONS OF
LA PAZ COUNTY. SHOWERS AND TSTMS DEVELOP ALONG THE COLD FRONT IN
PHOENIX BY 8 PM. IF THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP...THEIR FAST MOVEMENT
COMBINED WITH PRECIP FALLING THROUGH 20-30 KNOT 850-700 MB
SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS COULD CAUSE SUDDEN GUSTS TO PERHAPS 45 MPH.

SINCE THIS IS A FAST MOVING SYSTEM...MOST SHOWERS BY 5 AM SUN WILL
BE CONFINED TO AREAS GENERALLY FROM PHOENIX EASTWARD. SAME FOR THE
SUNDAY AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING PERIOD.

SUNDAY NIGHT...RAPID CLEARING IS EXPECTED.

MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...
DRY NORTHERLY FLOW WILL DEVELOP MONDAY AND TUESDAY FOLLOWED BY A
BUILDING RIDGE OVER THE REGION WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. MUCH WARMER
TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST WEDNESDAY WITH NEAR 100 DEGREE HEAT ON THE
WARMEST DESERTS.

&&

.AVIATION...
SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA INCLUDING KPHX...KIWA...AND KSDL...
APPROACHING UL TROUGH AND COLD FRONT WILL INCREASE WINDS BEGINNING
LATE AM GNLY POST 17Z...BECOMING GUSTY UP TO 25KT OR SO DURING THE
AFTERNOON...EVEN STRONGER TO 30KT SATURDAY EVENING. EXPECT THE
STRONGEST WINDS IN A BURST RIGHT ALONG PASSING COLD FRONT. SOME
TIMING DIFFERENCES REMAIN BETWEEN MODEL FCSTS...BUT LIKELY WINDOW OF
FROPA AND STRONGEST WEST WINDS AROUND 26/02-04Z WINDOW.

PRECIPITATION CHANCES ALSO INCREASE AFTER 21Z...WITH SCATTERED
SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE BEGINNING OVER THE WESTERN DESERTS. VCSH
WILL BEGIN TO FILL IN AROUND PHX METRO PERIPHERY AFTER 26/00Z...WITH
SHOWERS STARTING EARLIER FOR KSDL AND KIWA BEFORE KPHX. CHANCE OF
THUNDER POSSIBLE AS WELL WITH THIS STRONG SYSTEM...SO INCLUDED
OVERNIGHT MENTION OF -TSRA POST-MIDNIGHT LOCAL 26/07Z. CIGS
STARTING OFF IN THE AFTERNOON 7-9KFT BEFORE DROPPING INTO THE 3-5KFT
RANGE WITH ONSET OF STEADY PRECIP LATE IN THE EVENING.


SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA AND SOUTHWEST ARIZONA INCLUDING KIPL AND KBLH...
APPROACHING UL TROUGH WILL PERSIST STRONG WINDS STEADILY INCREASING
AFTER 25/16Z...PEAK GUSTS UP TO 40KT WILL BE COMMON ACROSS THE AREA
BY LATE AFTERNOON CONTINUING INTO THE EVENING HOURS. PERIODS OF
BLOWING DUST REDUCING VISIBILITY DOWN TO 2SM WILL BE COMMON WITH THE
STRONGER WINDS...ESPECIALLY ACROSS IMPERIAL COUNTY AND NEAR YUMA.
12Z TAFS TAKE AIRFIELD VSBYS DOWN TO 5SM BUT CANNOT RULE OUT LOCALLY
LOWER VALUES FOR SHORTER PERIODS. SLANT VSBYS LIKELY IMPACTED DUE TO
LOFTED DUST. THE STRONGEST WINDS TO ABATE LATER INTO THE EVENING BUT
REMAIN ELEVATED IN THE 10-15KT RANGE WITH GUSTS STILL TOWARDS 20KTS.

AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDED TAFS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...
IN THE WAKE OF THE DEPARTING TROUGH...NEXT WEEK WILL SEE THE ARRIVAL
OF A STRONG UPPER RIDGE OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN CONUS FROM MONDAY
THROUGH MOST OF THE WEEK. TEMPERATURES WILL WARM SUBSTANTIALLY AND
APPROACH THE TRIPLE DIGIT MARK FOR THE LATTER PART OF THE WEEK.
AFTERNOON HUMIDITIES WILL DROP INTO THE LOWER TEENS AND UPPER SINGLE
DIGITS WITH FAIR OVERNIGHT RECOVERIES EXPECTED. WINDS WILL BE GNLY
LIGHT AND SHOULD FOLLOW TYPICAL DIURNAL PATTERNS.

&&

.PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AZ...NONE.

CA...WIND ADVISORY FROM 1 PM TO 9 PM PDT TODAY FOR CAZ030>033.

&&

$$

VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/PHOENIX

DISCUSSION...VASQUEZ
AVIATION...NOLTE
FIRE WEATHER...NOLTE/LEINS




000
FXUS65 KPSR 251216
AFDPSR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PHOENIX AZ
515 AM MST SAT APR 25 2015

...POTENT UPPER TROUGH AND FRONTAL PASSAGE ACROSS THE REGION
TODAY WITH STRONG GUSTY WINDS AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES...

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
A STRONG COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO MOVE INTO THE REGION LATE THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. AHEAD OF THE FRONT...GUSTY AFTERNOON
SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL DEVELOP...STRONGEST IN SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA AND
THE COLORADO RIVER VALLEY. THE CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
WILL ALSO INCREASE LATE TODAY AND TONIGHT...BUT MAINLY ACROSS
PORTIONS OF SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH CENTRAL ARIZONA. LINGERING SHOWERS
ARE EXPECTED SUNDAY OVER EASTERN ARIZONA...WITH CLEARING OVER
SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA AND SOUTHWEST ARIZONA. DRIER AND MUCH WARMER
WEATHER IS EXPECTED NEXT WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

NOTE: A STRONG CLASSICAL COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE IS EXPECTED IN
CENTRAL AZ SATURDAY EVENING WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR BRIEF HEAVY RAIN
AND STRONG THUNDERSTORM WIND.

TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY...
REGIONAL WEATHER BALLOON SOUNDINGS FRIDAY EVENING CONTINUED TO SHOW
A RELATIVELY MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER ABOUT 6 TO 7000 FEET DEEP
EXTENDING FROM SOUTHERN CA TO SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH CENTRAL AZ. THIS
MOISTURE IS SIGNIFICANT RELATIVE TO THE COOLER TEMPS ALOFT...AND
FRONTAL PASSAGE EXPECTED LATE SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

OTHERWISE...A POWERFUL AND FAST MOVING NEGATIVE TILT DIFLUENT TROF
IS STILL FORECAST TO MOVE INTO CENTRAL AZ LATE SATURDAY AFTERNOON
AND EVENING. CURRENT MODELS...SPECIFICALLY THE GFS...IS NOT ONLY A
LITTLE FASTER WITH THE COLD FRONT...BUT IT DEEPENS THE TROF SLIGHTLY
MORE EASTWARD INTO CENTRAL AZ. A VERY PROGRESSIVE UPSTREAM PACIFIC
FLOW PATTERN IS PERHAPS PUSHING THIS SYSTEM FASTER/EASTWARD THAN
EARLIER MODEL RUNS. THEREFORE PRECIP CHANCES ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA...INCLUDING PHOENIX WILL LIKELY START A LITTLE EARLIER...
MEANING LATE AFTERNOON. THE HEAVIEST PRECIP WITH A CHANCE OF TSTMS
HOWEVER IS SLATED FOR THIS EVENING...AFTER DARK...IN SOUTH CENTRAL
AZ.

FOR TODAY AND TONIGHT...
INCREASING CLOUDS BUT NO PRECIP IS EXPECTED THE FIRST HALF OF THE
DAY. BACKING PRE-FRONTAL WINDS AND WARM ADVECTION AHEAD OF THE COLD
FRONT WILL MAKE FOR A WINDY AFTERNOON... WITH THE STRONGEST WINDS IN
SOUTHEAST CA/COLORADO RIVER WHERE A WIND ADVISORY IS POSTED FOR
GUSTS BETWEEN 35 AND 45 MPH.

THE COLD FRONT BY 5 PM LOCAL TIME WILL HAVE JUST MOVED ACROSS THE
COLORADO RIVER...THEN INTO PHOENIX AREA BY 8 PM. THE BEST CHANCE OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS BY 5 PM WILL DEVELOP JUST NORTHWEST AND
NORTH OF BLYTHE CA ALONG THE COLORADO RIVER...AND OVER PORTIONS OF
LA PAZ COUNTY. SHOWERS AND TSTMS DEVELOP ALONG THE COLD FRONT IN
PHOENIX BY 8 PM. IF THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP...THEIR FAST MOVEMENT
COMBINED WITH PRECIP FALLING THROUGH 20-30 KNOT 850-700 MB
SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS COULD CAUSE SUDDEN GUSTS TO PERHAPS 45 MPH.

SINCE THIS IS A FAST MOVING SYSTEM...MOST SHOWERS BY 5 AM SUN WILL
BE CONFINED TO AREAS GENERALLY FROM PHOENIX EASTWARD. SAME FOR THE
SUNDAY AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING PERIOD.

SUNDAY NIGHT...RAPID CLEARING IS EXPECTED.

MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...
DRY NORTHERLY FLOW WILL DEVELOP MONDAY AND TUESDAY FOLLOWED BY A
BUILDING RIDGE OVER THE REGION WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. MUCH WARMER
TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST WEDNESDAY WITH NEAR 100 DEGREE HEAT ON THE
WARMEST DESERTS.

&&

.AVIATION...
SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA INCLUDING KPHX...KIWA...AND KSDL...
APPROACHING UL TROUGH AND COLD FRONT WILL INCREASE WINDS BEGINNING
LATE AM GNLY POST 17Z...BECOMING GUSTY UP TO 25KT OR SO DURING THE
AFTERNOON...EVEN STRONGER TO 30KT SATURDAY EVENING. EXPECT THE
STRONGEST WINDS IN A BURST RIGHT ALONG PASSING COLD FRONT. SOME
TIMING DIFFERENCES REMAIN BETWEEN MODEL FCSTS...BUT LIKELY WINDOW OF
FROPA AND STRONGEST WEST WINDS AROUND 26/02-04Z WINDOW.

PRECIPITATION CHANCES ALSO INCREASE AFTER 21Z...WITH SCATTERED
SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE BEGINNING OVER THE WESTERN DESERTS. VCSH
WILL BEGIN TO FILL IN AROUND PHX METRO PERIPHERY AFTER 26/00Z...WITH
SHOWERS STARTING EARLIER FOR KSDL AND KIWA BEFORE KPHX. CHANCE OF
THUNDER POSSIBLE AS WELL WITH THIS STRONG SYSTEM...SO INCLUDED
OVERNIGHT MENTION OF -TSRA POST-MIDNIGHT LOCAL 26/07Z. CIGS
STARTING OFF IN THE AFTERNOON 7-9KFT BEFORE DROPPING INTO THE 3-5KFT
RANGE WITH ONSET OF STEADY PRECIP LATE IN THE EVENING.


SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA AND SOUTHWEST ARIZONA INCLUDING KIPL AND KBLH...
APPROACHING UL TROUGH WILL PERSIST STRONG WINDS STEADILY INCREASING
AFTER 25/16Z...PEAK GUSTS UP TO 40KT WILL BE COMMON ACROSS THE AREA
BY LATE AFTERNOON CONTINUING INTO THE EVENING HOURS. PERIODS OF
BLOWING DUST REDUCING VISIBILITY DOWN TO 2SM WILL BE COMMON WITH THE
STRONGER WINDS...ESPECIALLY ACROSS IMPERIAL COUNTY AND NEAR YUMA.
12Z TAFS TAKE AIRFIELD VSBYS DOWN TO 5SM BUT CANNOT RULE OUT LOCALLY
LOWER VALUES FOR SHORTER PERIODS. SLANT VSBYS LIKELY IMPACTED DUE TO
LOFTED DUST. THE STRONGEST WINDS TO ABATE LATER INTO THE EVENING BUT
REMAIN ELEVATED IN THE 10-15KT RANGE WITH GUSTS STILL TOWARDS 20KTS.

AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDED TAFS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...
IN THE WAKE OF THE DEPARTING TROUGH...NEXT WEEK WILL SEE THE ARRIVAL
OF A STRONG UPPER RIDGE OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN CONUS FROM MONDAY
THROUGH MOST OF THE WEEK. TEMPERATURES WILL WARM SUBSTANTIALLY AND
APPROACH THE TRIPLE DIGIT MARK FOR THE LATTER PART OF THE WEEK.
AFTERNOON HUMIDITIES WILL DROP INTO THE LOWER TEENS AND UPPER SINGLE
DIGITS WITH FAIR OVERNIGHT RECOVERIES EXPECTED. WINDS WILL BE GNLY
LIGHT AND SHOULD FOLLOW TYPICAL DIURNAL PATTERNS.

&&

.PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AZ...NONE.

CA...WIND ADVISORY FROM 1 PM TO 9 PM PDT TODAY FOR CAZ030>033.

&&

$$

VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/PHOENIX

DISCUSSION...VASQUEZ
AVIATION...NOLTE
FIRE WEATHER...NOLTE/LEINS



000
FXUS65 KFGZ 251119
AFDFGZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ
415 AM MST SAT APR 25 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE INTO THE STATE TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY
BRINGING WINDY AND COLDER CONDITIONS...ALONG WITH RAIN AND MOUNTAIN
SNOW SHOWERS. LIGHT SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS ARE FORECAST FOR AREAS
NEAR AND ABOVE 7000 FEET. MUCH WARMER AND DRIER WEATHER WILL ARRIVE
NEXT WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

A STRONG AND COLD STORM SYSTEM IS TAKING SHAPE OVER THE WESTERN
STATES THIS MORNING. THIS SYSTEM WILL APPROACH ARIZONA FROM THE
NORTHWEST THROUGH THE DAY...WITH SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
ON THE INCREASE ALONG/NORTH OF A PRESCOTT-FLAGSTAFF TO FOUR CORNERS
LINE. SHOWERS WILL BE MOST PREVALENT OVER FAVORED UPSLOPE AREAS AS
SOUTHWEST WINDS STRENGTHEN. WIND SPEEDS OF 20-30 MPH WITH GUSTS
35-40 MPH ARE EXPECTED THROUGH EARLY THIS EVENING FOR MUCH OF
NORTHERN ARIZONA. AS THE TROUGH AND COLD FRONT PUSH SOUTHEASTWARD
ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT...EXPECT WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION TO
DEVELOP...WITH SOME THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY ALSO LIKELY. MOST AREAS
WILL BEGIN AS RAIN WITH HIGHER ELEVATIONS ABOVE 6500-7000 FEET
SEEING A SWITCH OVER TO SNOW BY EARLY SUNDAY MORNING WHEN THE
COLDEST AIR ARRIVES. ELEVATIONS GENERALLY 7000 FT AND ABOVE ARE
EXPECTED TO SEE ANYWHERE FROM A TRACE TO 2 INCHES OF SNOWFALL DURING
THE MORNING HOURS...WITH HIGHER AMOUNTS OVER MOUNTAIN PEAKS.
INSTABILITY SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE MUCH OF THE DAY SUNDAY WITH SNOW
LEVELS GRADUALLY RISING ABOVE 7000 FEET.

WARMER WEATHER QUICKLY DEVELOPS NEXT WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
INTO THE SOUTHWEST. TEMPERATURES WILL WARM CLOSER TO NORMAL BY
MONDAY AND UP TO 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL BY THE MID TO LATTER PART
OF NEXT WEEK. A LOW CHANCE FOR SHOWERS WILL LINGER ALONG THE NEW
MEXICO BORDER THROUGH TUESDAY WITH OTHERWISE DRY WEATHER.

&&

.AVIATION...
FOR THE 12Z PACKAGE...WIDESPREAD VFR CONDITIONS THOUGH CIG BASES
RANGE FROM 3-5 KFT AND LOCAL MVFR CIGS POSSIBLE OVER SW FACING
SLOPES. AFT 16Z MVFR/IFR CIGS TO EXPAND ACROSS NWRN AZ WITH RAIN
SHOWERS DEVELOPING NORTH OF A KCEZ-KPRC LINE. PRECIP AND MVFR
CONDITIONS TO EXPAND SOUTHEASTWARD THROUGH 00Z SUN. SFC WINDS S-SW
15-25 KT GUSTS TO 35 KT. AFT 00Z SUN...WIDESPREAD MVFR AND AREAS IFR
IN RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS...SNOW LEVELS FALLING TO 6500 FEET ON THE
KAIBAB PLATEAU...KGCN-KFLG TO 7500 FEET WHITE MTNS. AVIATION
DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR TAF AMENDMENTS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
A STRONG AND COLD STORM SYSTEM WILL MOVE THROUGH NORTHERN ARIZONA
TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY. EXPECT GUSTY SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST WINDS TODAY.
RAIN SHOWERS WILL DEVELOP BY LATE MORNING NORTH OF A FOUR CORNERS TO
PRESCOTT LINE AND SPREAD SOUTHEASTWARD THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON.
SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY WILL FEATURE WIDESPREAD RAIN AND HIGH
ELEVATION SNOWFALL AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS. NEARLY ALL OF THE
NORTHLAND WILL SEE PRECIP ACCUMULATIONS GREATER THAN 0.10 INCH.
COLDER AIR AND A WIND SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST WILL ACCOMPANY
CONTINUING SHOWER ACTIVITY INTO SUNDAY AFTERNOON.

MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...ON MONDAY...DRY WEATHER RETURNS THOUGH A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF LIGHT SHOWERS WILL LINGER ACROSS APACHE COUNTY.
MUCH LESS WIND AND A STRONG WARMING TREND WILL DEVELOP TUESDAY
AND WEDNESDAY.

&&

.FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC.........JJ
AVIATION.......DL
FIRE WEATHER...DL

FOR NORTHERN ARIZONA WEATHER INFORMATION VISIT
WEATHER.GOV/FLAGSTAFF




000
FXUS65 KFGZ 251119
AFDFGZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ
415 AM MST SAT APR 25 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE INTO THE STATE TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY
BRINGING WINDY AND COLDER CONDITIONS...ALONG WITH RAIN AND MOUNTAIN
SNOW SHOWERS. LIGHT SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS ARE FORECAST FOR AREAS
NEAR AND ABOVE 7000 FEET. MUCH WARMER AND DRIER WEATHER WILL ARRIVE
NEXT WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

A STRONG AND COLD STORM SYSTEM IS TAKING SHAPE OVER THE WESTERN
STATES THIS MORNING. THIS SYSTEM WILL APPROACH ARIZONA FROM THE
NORTHWEST THROUGH THE DAY...WITH SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
ON THE INCREASE ALONG/NORTH OF A PRESCOTT-FLAGSTAFF TO FOUR CORNERS
LINE. SHOWERS WILL BE MOST PREVALENT OVER FAVORED UPSLOPE AREAS AS
SOUTHWEST WINDS STRENGTHEN. WIND SPEEDS OF 20-30 MPH WITH GUSTS
35-40 MPH ARE EXPECTED THROUGH EARLY THIS EVENING FOR MUCH OF
NORTHERN ARIZONA. AS THE TROUGH AND COLD FRONT PUSH SOUTHEASTWARD
ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT...EXPECT WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION TO
DEVELOP...WITH SOME THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY ALSO LIKELY. MOST AREAS
WILL BEGIN AS RAIN WITH HIGHER ELEVATIONS ABOVE 6500-7000 FEET
SEEING A SWITCH OVER TO SNOW BY EARLY SUNDAY MORNING WHEN THE
COLDEST AIR ARRIVES. ELEVATIONS GENERALLY 7000 FT AND ABOVE ARE
EXPECTED TO SEE ANYWHERE FROM A TRACE TO 2 INCHES OF SNOWFALL DURING
THE MORNING HOURS...WITH HIGHER AMOUNTS OVER MOUNTAIN PEAKS.
INSTABILITY SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE MUCH OF THE DAY SUNDAY WITH SNOW
LEVELS GRADUALLY RISING ABOVE 7000 FEET.

WARMER WEATHER QUICKLY DEVELOPS NEXT WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
INTO THE SOUTHWEST. TEMPERATURES WILL WARM CLOSER TO NORMAL BY
MONDAY AND UP TO 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL BY THE MID TO LATTER PART
OF NEXT WEEK. A LOW CHANCE FOR SHOWERS WILL LINGER ALONG THE NEW
MEXICO BORDER THROUGH TUESDAY WITH OTHERWISE DRY WEATHER.

&&

.AVIATION...
FOR THE 12Z PACKAGE...WIDESPREAD VFR CONDITIONS THOUGH CIG BASES
RANGE FROM 3-5 KFT AND LOCAL MVFR CIGS POSSIBLE OVER SW FACING
SLOPES. AFT 16Z MVFR/IFR CIGS TO EXPAND ACROSS NWRN AZ WITH RAIN
SHOWERS DEVELOPING NORTH OF A KCEZ-KPRC LINE. PRECIP AND MVFR
CONDITIONS TO EXPAND SOUTHEASTWARD THROUGH 00Z SUN. SFC WINDS S-SW
15-25 KT GUSTS TO 35 KT. AFT 00Z SUN...WIDESPREAD MVFR AND AREAS IFR
IN RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS...SNOW LEVELS FALLING TO 6500 FEET ON THE
KAIBAB PLATEAU...KGCN-KFLG TO 7500 FEET WHITE MTNS. AVIATION
DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR TAF AMENDMENTS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
A STRONG AND COLD STORM SYSTEM WILL MOVE THROUGH NORTHERN ARIZONA
TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY. EXPECT GUSTY SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST WINDS TODAY.
RAIN SHOWERS WILL DEVELOP BY LATE MORNING NORTH OF A FOUR CORNERS TO
PRESCOTT LINE AND SPREAD SOUTHEASTWARD THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON.
SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY WILL FEATURE WIDESPREAD RAIN AND HIGH
ELEVATION SNOWFALL AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS. NEARLY ALL OF THE
NORTHLAND WILL SEE PRECIP ACCUMULATIONS GREATER THAN 0.10 INCH.
COLDER AIR AND A WIND SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST WILL ACCOMPANY
CONTINUING SHOWER ACTIVITY INTO SUNDAY AFTERNOON.

MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...ON MONDAY...DRY WEATHER RETURNS THOUGH A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF LIGHT SHOWERS WILL LINGER ACROSS APACHE COUNTY.
MUCH LESS WIND AND A STRONG WARMING TREND WILL DEVELOP TUESDAY
AND WEDNESDAY.

&&

.FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC.........JJ
AVIATION.......DL
FIRE WEATHER...DL

FOR NORTHERN ARIZONA WEATHER INFORMATION VISIT
WEATHER.GOV/FLAGSTAFF




000
FXUS65 KFGZ 251119
AFDFGZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ
415 AM MST SAT APR 25 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE INTO THE STATE TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY
BRINGING WINDY AND COLDER CONDITIONS...ALONG WITH RAIN AND MOUNTAIN
SNOW SHOWERS. LIGHT SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS ARE FORECAST FOR AREAS
NEAR AND ABOVE 7000 FEET. MUCH WARMER AND DRIER WEATHER WILL ARRIVE
NEXT WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

A STRONG AND COLD STORM SYSTEM IS TAKING SHAPE OVER THE WESTERN
STATES THIS MORNING. THIS SYSTEM WILL APPROACH ARIZONA FROM THE
NORTHWEST THROUGH THE DAY...WITH SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
ON THE INCREASE ALONG/NORTH OF A PRESCOTT-FLAGSTAFF TO FOUR CORNERS
LINE. SHOWERS WILL BE MOST PREVALENT OVER FAVORED UPSLOPE AREAS AS
SOUTHWEST WINDS STRENGTHEN. WIND SPEEDS OF 20-30 MPH WITH GUSTS
35-40 MPH ARE EXPECTED THROUGH EARLY THIS EVENING FOR MUCH OF
NORTHERN ARIZONA. AS THE TROUGH AND COLD FRONT PUSH SOUTHEASTWARD
ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT...EXPECT WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION TO
DEVELOP...WITH SOME THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY ALSO LIKELY. MOST AREAS
WILL BEGIN AS RAIN WITH HIGHER ELEVATIONS ABOVE 6500-7000 FEET
SEEING A SWITCH OVER TO SNOW BY EARLY SUNDAY MORNING WHEN THE
COLDEST AIR ARRIVES. ELEVATIONS GENERALLY 7000 FT AND ABOVE ARE
EXPECTED TO SEE ANYWHERE FROM A TRACE TO 2 INCHES OF SNOWFALL DURING
THE MORNING HOURS...WITH HIGHER AMOUNTS OVER MOUNTAIN PEAKS.
INSTABILITY SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE MUCH OF THE DAY SUNDAY WITH SNOW
LEVELS GRADUALLY RISING ABOVE 7000 FEET.

WARMER WEATHER QUICKLY DEVELOPS NEXT WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
INTO THE SOUTHWEST. TEMPERATURES WILL WARM CLOSER TO NORMAL BY
MONDAY AND UP TO 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL BY THE MID TO LATTER PART
OF NEXT WEEK. A LOW CHANCE FOR SHOWERS WILL LINGER ALONG THE NEW
MEXICO BORDER THROUGH TUESDAY WITH OTHERWISE DRY WEATHER.

&&

.AVIATION...
FOR THE 12Z PACKAGE...WIDESPREAD VFR CONDITIONS THOUGH CIG BASES
RANGE FROM 3-5 KFT AND LOCAL MVFR CIGS POSSIBLE OVER SW FACING
SLOPES. AFT 16Z MVFR/IFR CIGS TO EXPAND ACROSS NWRN AZ WITH RAIN
SHOWERS DEVELOPING NORTH OF A KCEZ-KPRC LINE. PRECIP AND MVFR
CONDITIONS TO EXPAND SOUTHEASTWARD THROUGH 00Z SUN. SFC WINDS S-SW
15-25 KT GUSTS TO 35 KT. AFT 00Z SUN...WIDESPREAD MVFR AND AREAS IFR
IN RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS...SNOW LEVELS FALLING TO 6500 FEET ON THE
KAIBAB PLATEAU...KGCN-KFLG TO 7500 FEET WHITE MTNS. AVIATION
DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR TAF AMENDMENTS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
A STRONG AND COLD STORM SYSTEM WILL MOVE THROUGH NORTHERN ARIZONA
TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY. EXPECT GUSTY SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST WINDS TODAY.
RAIN SHOWERS WILL DEVELOP BY LATE MORNING NORTH OF A FOUR CORNERS TO
PRESCOTT LINE AND SPREAD SOUTHEASTWARD THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON.
SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY WILL FEATURE WIDESPREAD RAIN AND HIGH
ELEVATION SNOWFALL AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS. NEARLY ALL OF THE
NORTHLAND WILL SEE PRECIP ACCUMULATIONS GREATER THAN 0.10 INCH.
COLDER AIR AND A WIND SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST WILL ACCOMPANY
CONTINUING SHOWER ACTIVITY INTO SUNDAY AFTERNOON.

MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...ON MONDAY...DRY WEATHER RETURNS THOUGH A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF LIGHT SHOWERS WILL LINGER ACROSS APACHE COUNTY.
MUCH LESS WIND AND A STRONG WARMING TREND WILL DEVELOP TUESDAY
AND WEDNESDAY.

&&

.FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC.........JJ
AVIATION.......DL
FIRE WEATHER...DL

FOR NORTHERN ARIZONA WEATHER INFORMATION VISIT
WEATHER.GOV/FLAGSTAFF




000
FXUS65 KFGZ 251119
AFDFGZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ
415 AM MST SAT APR 25 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE INTO THE STATE TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY
BRINGING WINDY AND COLDER CONDITIONS...ALONG WITH RAIN AND MOUNTAIN
SNOW SHOWERS. LIGHT SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS ARE FORECAST FOR AREAS
NEAR AND ABOVE 7000 FEET. MUCH WARMER AND DRIER WEATHER WILL ARRIVE
NEXT WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

A STRONG AND COLD STORM SYSTEM IS TAKING SHAPE OVER THE WESTERN
STATES THIS MORNING. THIS SYSTEM WILL APPROACH ARIZONA FROM THE
NORTHWEST THROUGH THE DAY...WITH SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
ON THE INCREASE ALONG/NORTH OF A PRESCOTT-FLAGSTAFF TO FOUR CORNERS
LINE. SHOWERS WILL BE MOST PREVALENT OVER FAVORED UPSLOPE AREAS AS
SOUTHWEST WINDS STRENGTHEN. WIND SPEEDS OF 20-30 MPH WITH GUSTS
35-40 MPH ARE EXPECTED THROUGH EARLY THIS EVENING FOR MUCH OF
NORTHERN ARIZONA. AS THE TROUGH AND COLD FRONT PUSH SOUTHEASTWARD
ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT...EXPECT WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION TO
DEVELOP...WITH SOME THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY ALSO LIKELY. MOST AREAS
WILL BEGIN AS RAIN WITH HIGHER ELEVATIONS ABOVE 6500-7000 FEET
SEEING A SWITCH OVER TO SNOW BY EARLY SUNDAY MORNING WHEN THE
COLDEST AIR ARRIVES. ELEVATIONS GENERALLY 7000 FT AND ABOVE ARE
EXPECTED TO SEE ANYWHERE FROM A TRACE TO 2 INCHES OF SNOWFALL DURING
THE MORNING HOURS...WITH HIGHER AMOUNTS OVER MOUNTAIN PEAKS.
INSTABILITY SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE MUCH OF THE DAY SUNDAY WITH SNOW
LEVELS GRADUALLY RISING ABOVE 7000 FEET.

WARMER WEATHER QUICKLY DEVELOPS NEXT WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
INTO THE SOUTHWEST. TEMPERATURES WILL WARM CLOSER TO NORMAL BY
MONDAY AND UP TO 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL BY THE MID TO LATTER PART
OF NEXT WEEK. A LOW CHANCE FOR SHOWERS WILL LINGER ALONG THE NEW
MEXICO BORDER THROUGH TUESDAY WITH OTHERWISE DRY WEATHER.

&&

.AVIATION...
FOR THE 12Z PACKAGE...WIDESPREAD VFR CONDITIONS THOUGH CIG BASES
RANGE FROM 3-5 KFT AND LOCAL MVFR CIGS POSSIBLE OVER SW FACING
SLOPES. AFT 16Z MVFR/IFR CIGS TO EXPAND ACROSS NWRN AZ WITH RAIN
SHOWERS DEVELOPING NORTH OF A KCEZ-KPRC LINE. PRECIP AND MVFR
CONDITIONS TO EXPAND SOUTHEASTWARD THROUGH 00Z SUN. SFC WINDS S-SW
15-25 KT GUSTS TO 35 KT. AFT 00Z SUN...WIDESPREAD MVFR AND AREAS IFR
IN RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS...SNOW LEVELS FALLING TO 6500 FEET ON THE
KAIBAB PLATEAU...KGCN-KFLG TO 7500 FEET WHITE MTNS. AVIATION
DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR TAF AMENDMENTS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
A STRONG AND COLD STORM SYSTEM WILL MOVE THROUGH NORTHERN ARIZONA
TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY. EXPECT GUSTY SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST WINDS TODAY.
RAIN SHOWERS WILL DEVELOP BY LATE MORNING NORTH OF A FOUR CORNERS TO
PRESCOTT LINE AND SPREAD SOUTHEASTWARD THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON.
SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY WILL FEATURE WIDESPREAD RAIN AND HIGH
ELEVATION SNOWFALL AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS. NEARLY ALL OF THE
NORTHLAND WILL SEE PRECIP ACCUMULATIONS GREATER THAN 0.10 INCH.
COLDER AIR AND A WIND SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST WILL ACCOMPANY
CONTINUING SHOWER ACTIVITY INTO SUNDAY AFTERNOON.

MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...ON MONDAY...DRY WEATHER RETURNS THOUGH A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF LIGHT SHOWERS WILL LINGER ACROSS APACHE COUNTY.
MUCH LESS WIND AND A STRONG WARMING TREND WILL DEVELOP TUESDAY
AND WEDNESDAY.

&&

.FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC.........JJ
AVIATION.......DL
FIRE WEATHER...DL

FOR NORTHERN ARIZONA WEATHER INFORMATION VISIT
WEATHER.GOV/FLAGSTAFF




000
FXUS65 KPSR 251003
AFDPSR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PHOENIX AZ
300 AM MST SAT APR 25 2015


.SYNOPSIS...A STRONG COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO MOVE INTO THE REGION
LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. AHEAD OF THE FRONT...GUSTY
AFTERNOON SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL DEVELOP...STRONGEST IN SOUTHEAST
CALIFORNIA AND THE COLORADO RIVER VALLEY. THE CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL ALSO INCREASE LATE TODAY AND TONIGHT...BUT MAINLY
ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH CENTRAL ARIZONA. LINGERING
SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED SUNDAY OVER EASTERN ARIZONA...WITH CLEARING
OVER SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA AND SOUTHWEST ARIZONA. DRIER AND MUCH
WARMER WEATHER IS EXPECTED NEXT WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

.NOTE...A STRONG CLASSICAL COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE IS EXPECTED IN
CENTRAL AZ SATURDAY EVENING WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR BRIEF HEAVY RAIN
AND STRONG THUNDERSTORM WIND.

TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY...REGIONAL WEATHER BALLOON SOUNDINGS FRIDAY
EVENING CONTINUED TO SHOW A RELATIVELY MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER ABOUT 6
TO 7000 FEET DEEP EXTENDING FROM SOUTHERN CA TO SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH
CENTRAL AZ. THIS MOISTURE IS SIGNIFICANT RELATIVE TO THE COOLER
TEMPS ALOFT...AND FRONTAL PASSAGE EXPECTED LATE SATURDAY AFTERNOON
AND EVENING.

OTHERWISE...A POWERFUL AND FAST MOVING NEGATIVE TILT DIFLUENT TROF
IS STILL FORECAST TO MOVE INTO CENTRAL AZ LATE SATURDAY AFTERNOON
AND EVENING. CURRENT MODELS...SPECIFICALLY THE GFS...IS NOT ONLY A
LITTLE FASTER WITH THE COLD FRONT...BUT IT DEEPENS THE TROF SLIGHTLY
MORE EASTWARD INTO CENTRAL AZ. A VERY PROGRESSIVE UPSTREAM PACIFIC
FLOW PATTERN IS PERHAPS PUSHING THIS SYSTEM FASTER/EASTWARD THAN
EARLIER MODEL RUNS. THEREFORE PRECIP CHANCES ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA...INCLUDING PHOENIX WILL LIKELY START A LITTLE EARLIER...
MEANING LATE AFTERNOON. THE HEAVIEST PRECIP WITH A CHANCE OF TSTMS
HOWEVER IS SLATED FOR THIS EVENING...AFTER DARK...IN SOUTH CENTRAL
AZ.

FOR TODAY AND TONIGHT...INCREASING CLOUDS BUT NO PRECIP IS EXPECTED
THE FIRST HALF OF THE DAY. BACKING PRE-FRONTAL WINDS AND WARM
ADVECTION AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT WILL MAKE FOR A WINDY AFTERNOON...
WITH THE STRONGEST WINDS IN SOUTHEAST CA/COLORADO RIVER WHERE A WIND
ADVISORY IS POSTED FOR GUSTS BETWEEN 35 AND 45 MPH.

THE COLD FRONT BY 5 PM LOCAL TIME WILL HAVE JUST MOVED ACROSS THE
COLORADO RIVER...THEN INTO PHOENIX AREA BY 8 PM. THE BEST CHANCE OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS BY 5 PM WILL DEVELOP JUST NORTHWEST AND
NORTH OF BLYTHE CA ALONG THE COLORADO RIVER...AND OVER PORTIONS OF
LA PAZ COUNTY. SHOWERS AND TSTMS DEVELOP ALONG THE COLD FRONT IN
PHOENIX BY 8 PM. IF THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP...THEIR FAST MOVEMENT
COMBINED WITH PRECIP FALLING THROUGH 20-30 KNOT 850-700 MB
SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS COULD CAUSE SUDDEN GUSTS TO PERHAPS 45 MPH.

SINCE THIS IS A FAST MOVING SYSTEM...MOST SHOWERS BY 5 AM SUN WILL
BE CONFINED TO AREAS GENERALLY FROM PHOENIX EASTWARD. SAME FOR THE
SUNDAY AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING PERIOD.

SUNDAY NIGHT...RAPID CLEARING IS EXPECTED.

MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...DRY NORTHERLY FLOW WILL DEVELOP MONDAY AND
TUESDAY FOLLOWED BY A BUILDING RIDGE OVER THE REGION WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY. MUCH WARMER TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST WEDNESDAY WITH NEAR
100 DEGREE HEAT ON THE WARMEST DESERTS.

&&

.AVIATION...
SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA INCLUDING KPHX...KIWA...AND KSDL...
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES WITH FEW-SCT CLOUDS A0A 10KFT OVERNIGHT INTO SAT
MORNING. WINDS GENERALLY LIGHT 10KT OR LESS...BUT APPROACHING UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH WILL INCREASE WINDS AFTER 17Z...BECOMING GUSTY UP TO
25KT OR SO DURING THE AFTERNOON...EVEN STRONGER TO 30KT SATURDAY
EVENING. PRECIPITATION CHANCES ALSO INCREASE AFTER 21Z...WITH
SCATTERED SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE OVER THE DESERTS.

SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA AND SOUTHWEST ARIZONA INCLUDING KIPL AND KBLH...
FEW-SCT HIGH CLOUDS OVERNIGHT...WITH WINDS REMAINING LOCALLY GUSTY
NEAR KIPL UNTIL AROUND 10Z. APPROACHING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL ONCE
AGAIN ELEVATE WINDS...WITH WINDS STEADILY INCREASING AFTER 16Z
SATURDAY...PEAK GUSTS UP TO 40KT WILL BE COMMON ACROSS THE AREA BY
LATE AFTERNOON CONTINUING INTO THE EVENING HOURS. PERIODS OF BLOWING
DUST REDUCING VISIBILITY DOWN TO 2SM WILL BE COMMON WITH THE
STRONGER WINDS...ESPECIALLY ACROSS IMPERIAL COUNTY AND NEAR YUMA.

AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDED TAFS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY... IN THE WAKE OF THE DEPARTING TROUGH...NEXT
WEEK WILL SEE THE ARRIVAL OF A STRONG UPPER RIDGE OVER THE
SOUTHWESTERN CONUS FROM MONDAY THROUGH MOST OF THE WEEK. AS A RESULT
OF THIS RIDGE...TEMPERATURES WILL INCREASE SUBSTANTIALLY AND
APPROACH THE TRIPLE DIGITS WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. AFTERNOON
HUMIDITIES WILL DROP INTO THE LOWER TEENS AND UPPER SINGLE DIGITS
WITH FAIR OVERNIGHT RECOVERIES EXPECTED. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND
SHOULD FOLLOW TYPICAL DIURNAL PATTERNS NEXT WEEK.

&&

.PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AZ...NONE.

CA...WIND ADVISORY FROM 1 PM TO 9 PM PDT TODAY FOR CAZ030>033.

&&

$$

VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/PHOENIX

DISCUSSION...VASQUEZ
AVIATION...MEYERS
FIRE WEATHER...LEINS



000
FXUS65 KPSR 251003
AFDPSR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PHOENIX AZ
300 AM MST SAT APR 25 2015


.SYNOPSIS...A STRONG COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO MOVE INTO THE REGION
LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. AHEAD OF THE FRONT...GUSTY
AFTERNOON SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL DEVELOP...STRONGEST IN SOUTHEAST
CALIFORNIA AND THE COLORADO RIVER VALLEY. THE CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL ALSO INCREASE LATE TODAY AND TONIGHT...BUT MAINLY
ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH CENTRAL ARIZONA. LINGERING
SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED SUNDAY OVER EASTERN ARIZONA...WITH CLEARING
OVER SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA AND SOUTHWEST ARIZONA. DRIER AND MUCH
WARMER WEATHER IS EXPECTED NEXT WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

.NOTE...A STRONG CLASSICAL COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE IS EXPECTED IN
CENTRAL AZ SATURDAY EVENING WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR BRIEF HEAVY RAIN
AND STRONG THUNDERSTORM WIND.

TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY...REGIONAL WEATHER BALLOON SOUNDINGS FRIDAY
EVENING CONTINUED TO SHOW A RELATIVELY MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER ABOUT 6
TO 7000 FEET DEEP EXTENDING FROM SOUTHERN CA TO SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH
CENTRAL AZ. THIS MOISTURE IS SIGNIFICANT RELATIVE TO THE COOLER
TEMPS ALOFT...AND FRONTAL PASSAGE EXPECTED LATE SATURDAY AFTERNOON
AND EVENING.

OTHERWISE...A POWERFUL AND FAST MOVING NEGATIVE TILT DIFLUENT TROF
IS STILL FORECAST TO MOVE INTO CENTRAL AZ LATE SATURDAY AFTERNOON
AND EVENING. CURRENT MODELS...SPECIFICALLY THE GFS...IS NOT ONLY A
LITTLE FASTER WITH THE COLD FRONT...BUT IT DEEPENS THE TROF SLIGHTLY
MORE EASTWARD INTO CENTRAL AZ. A VERY PROGRESSIVE UPSTREAM PACIFIC
FLOW PATTERN IS PERHAPS PUSHING THIS SYSTEM FASTER/EASTWARD THAN
EARLIER MODEL RUNS. THEREFORE PRECIP CHANCES ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA...INCLUDING PHOENIX WILL LIKELY START A LITTLE EARLIER...
MEANING LATE AFTERNOON. THE HEAVIEST PRECIP WITH A CHANCE OF TSTMS
HOWEVER IS SLATED FOR THIS EVENING...AFTER DARK...IN SOUTH CENTRAL
AZ.

FOR TODAY AND TONIGHT...INCREASING CLOUDS BUT NO PRECIP IS EXPECTED
THE FIRST HALF OF THE DAY. BACKING PRE-FRONTAL WINDS AND WARM
ADVECTION AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT WILL MAKE FOR A WINDY AFTERNOON...
WITH THE STRONGEST WINDS IN SOUTHEAST CA/COLORADO RIVER WHERE A WIND
ADVISORY IS POSTED FOR GUSTS BETWEEN 35 AND 45 MPH.

THE COLD FRONT BY 5 PM LOCAL TIME WILL HAVE JUST MOVED ACROSS THE
COLORADO RIVER...THEN INTO PHOENIX AREA BY 8 PM. THE BEST CHANCE OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS BY 5 PM WILL DEVELOP JUST NORTHWEST AND
NORTH OF BLYTHE CA ALONG THE COLORADO RIVER...AND OVER PORTIONS OF
LA PAZ COUNTY. SHOWERS AND TSTMS DEVELOP ALONG THE COLD FRONT IN
PHOENIX BY 8 PM. IF THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP...THEIR FAST MOVEMENT
COMBINED WITH PRECIP FALLING THROUGH 20-30 KNOT 850-700 MB
SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS COULD CAUSE SUDDEN GUSTS TO PERHAPS 45 MPH.

SINCE THIS IS A FAST MOVING SYSTEM...MOST SHOWERS BY 5 AM SUN WILL
BE CONFINED TO AREAS GENERALLY FROM PHOENIX EASTWARD. SAME FOR THE
SUNDAY AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING PERIOD.

SUNDAY NIGHT...RAPID CLEARING IS EXPECTED.

MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...DRY NORTHERLY FLOW WILL DEVELOP MONDAY AND
TUESDAY FOLLOWED BY A BUILDING RIDGE OVER THE REGION WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY. MUCH WARMER TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST WEDNESDAY WITH NEAR
100 DEGREE HEAT ON THE WARMEST DESERTS.

&&

.AVIATION...
SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA INCLUDING KPHX...KIWA...AND KSDL...
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES WITH FEW-SCT CLOUDS A0A 10KFT OVERNIGHT INTO SAT
MORNING. WINDS GENERALLY LIGHT 10KT OR LESS...BUT APPROACHING UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH WILL INCREASE WINDS AFTER 17Z...BECOMING GUSTY UP TO
25KT OR SO DURING THE AFTERNOON...EVEN STRONGER TO 30KT SATURDAY
EVENING. PRECIPITATION CHANCES ALSO INCREASE AFTER 21Z...WITH
SCATTERED SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE OVER THE DESERTS.

SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA AND SOUTHWEST ARIZONA INCLUDING KIPL AND KBLH...
FEW-SCT HIGH CLOUDS OVERNIGHT...WITH WINDS REMAINING LOCALLY GUSTY
NEAR KIPL UNTIL AROUND 10Z. APPROACHING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL ONCE
AGAIN ELEVATE WINDS...WITH WINDS STEADILY INCREASING AFTER 16Z
SATURDAY...PEAK GUSTS UP TO 40KT WILL BE COMMON ACROSS THE AREA BY
LATE AFTERNOON CONTINUING INTO THE EVENING HOURS. PERIODS OF BLOWING
DUST REDUCING VISIBILITY DOWN TO 2SM WILL BE COMMON WITH THE
STRONGER WINDS...ESPECIALLY ACROSS IMPERIAL COUNTY AND NEAR YUMA.

AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDED TAFS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY... IN THE WAKE OF THE DEPARTING TROUGH...NEXT
WEEK WILL SEE THE ARRIVAL OF A STRONG UPPER RIDGE OVER THE
SOUTHWESTERN CONUS FROM MONDAY THROUGH MOST OF THE WEEK. AS A RESULT
OF THIS RIDGE...TEMPERATURES WILL INCREASE SUBSTANTIALLY AND
APPROACH THE TRIPLE DIGITS WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. AFTERNOON
HUMIDITIES WILL DROP INTO THE LOWER TEENS AND UPPER SINGLE DIGITS
WITH FAIR OVERNIGHT RECOVERIES EXPECTED. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND
SHOULD FOLLOW TYPICAL DIURNAL PATTERNS NEXT WEEK.

&&

.PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AZ...NONE.

CA...WIND ADVISORY FROM 1 PM TO 9 PM PDT TODAY FOR CAZ030>033.

&&

$$

VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/PHOENIX

DISCUSSION...VASQUEZ
AVIATION...MEYERS
FIRE WEATHER...LEINS




000
FXUS65 KPSR 251003
AFDPSR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PHOENIX AZ
300 AM MST SAT APR 25 2015


.SYNOPSIS...A STRONG COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO MOVE INTO THE REGION
LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. AHEAD OF THE FRONT...GUSTY
AFTERNOON SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL DEVELOP...STRONGEST IN SOUTHEAST
CALIFORNIA AND THE COLORADO RIVER VALLEY. THE CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL ALSO INCREASE LATE TODAY AND TONIGHT...BUT MAINLY
ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH CENTRAL ARIZONA. LINGERING
SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED SUNDAY OVER EASTERN ARIZONA...WITH CLEARING
OVER SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA AND SOUTHWEST ARIZONA. DRIER AND MUCH
WARMER WEATHER IS EXPECTED NEXT WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

.NOTE...A STRONG CLASSICAL COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE IS EXPECTED IN
CENTRAL AZ SATURDAY EVENING WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR BRIEF HEAVY RAIN
AND STRONG THUNDERSTORM WIND.

TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY...REGIONAL WEATHER BALLOON SOUNDINGS FRIDAY
EVENING CONTINUED TO SHOW A RELATIVELY MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER ABOUT 6
TO 7000 FEET DEEP EXTENDING FROM SOUTHERN CA TO SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH
CENTRAL AZ. THIS MOISTURE IS SIGNIFICANT RELATIVE TO THE COOLER
TEMPS ALOFT...AND FRONTAL PASSAGE EXPECTED LATE SATURDAY AFTERNOON
AND EVENING.

OTHERWISE...A POWERFUL AND FAST MOVING NEGATIVE TILT DIFLUENT TROF
IS STILL FORECAST TO MOVE INTO CENTRAL AZ LATE SATURDAY AFTERNOON
AND EVENING. CURRENT MODELS...SPECIFICALLY THE GFS...IS NOT ONLY A
LITTLE FASTER WITH THE COLD FRONT...BUT IT DEEPENS THE TROF SLIGHTLY
MORE EASTWARD INTO CENTRAL AZ. A VERY PROGRESSIVE UPSTREAM PACIFIC
FLOW PATTERN IS PERHAPS PUSHING THIS SYSTEM FASTER/EASTWARD THAN
EARLIER MODEL RUNS. THEREFORE PRECIP CHANCES ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA...INCLUDING PHOENIX WILL LIKELY START A LITTLE EARLIER...
MEANING LATE AFTERNOON. THE HEAVIEST PRECIP WITH A CHANCE OF TSTMS
HOWEVER IS SLATED FOR THIS EVENING...AFTER DARK...IN SOUTH CENTRAL
AZ.

FOR TODAY AND TONIGHT...INCREASING CLOUDS BUT NO PRECIP IS EXPECTED
THE FIRST HALF OF THE DAY. BACKING PRE-FRONTAL WINDS AND WARM
ADVECTION AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT WILL MAKE FOR A WINDY AFTERNOON...
WITH THE STRONGEST WINDS IN SOUTHEAST CA/COLORADO RIVER WHERE A WIND
ADVISORY IS POSTED FOR GUSTS BETWEEN 35 AND 45 MPH.

THE COLD FRONT BY 5 PM LOCAL TIME WILL HAVE JUST MOVED ACROSS THE
COLORADO RIVER...THEN INTO PHOENIX AREA BY 8 PM. THE BEST CHANCE OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS BY 5 PM WILL DEVELOP JUST NORTHWEST AND
NORTH OF BLYTHE CA ALONG THE COLORADO RIVER...AND OVER PORTIONS OF
LA PAZ COUNTY. SHOWERS AND TSTMS DEVELOP ALONG THE COLD FRONT IN
PHOENIX BY 8 PM. IF THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP...THEIR FAST MOVEMENT
COMBINED WITH PRECIP FALLING THROUGH 20-30 KNOT 850-700 MB
SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS COULD CAUSE SUDDEN GUSTS TO PERHAPS 45 MPH.

SINCE THIS IS A FAST MOVING SYSTEM...MOST SHOWERS BY 5 AM SUN WILL
BE CONFINED TO AREAS GENERALLY FROM PHOENIX EASTWARD. SAME FOR THE
SUNDAY AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING PERIOD.

SUNDAY NIGHT...RAPID CLEARING IS EXPECTED.

MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...DRY NORTHERLY FLOW WILL DEVELOP MONDAY AND
TUESDAY FOLLOWED BY A BUILDING RIDGE OVER THE REGION WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY. MUCH WARMER TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST WEDNESDAY WITH NEAR
100 DEGREE HEAT ON THE WARMEST DESERTS.

&&

.AVIATION...
SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA INCLUDING KPHX...KIWA...AND KSDL...
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES WITH FEW-SCT CLOUDS A0A 10KFT OVERNIGHT INTO SAT
MORNING. WINDS GENERALLY LIGHT 10KT OR LESS...BUT APPROACHING UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH WILL INCREASE WINDS AFTER 17Z...BECOMING GUSTY UP TO
25KT OR SO DURING THE AFTERNOON...EVEN STRONGER TO 30KT SATURDAY
EVENING. PRECIPITATION CHANCES ALSO INCREASE AFTER 21Z...WITH
SCATTERED SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE OVER THE DESERTS.

SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA AND SOUTHWEST ARIZONA INCLUDING KIPL AND KBLH...
FEW-SCT HIGH CLOUDS OVERNIGHT...WITH WINDS REMAINING LOCALLY GUSTY
NEAR KIPL UNTIL AROUND 10Z. APPROACHING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL ONCE
AGAIN ELEVATE WINDS...WITH WINDS STEADILY INCREASING AFTER 16Z
SATURDAY...PEAK GUSTS UP TO 40KT WILL BE COMMON ACROSS THE AREA BY
LATE AFTERNOON CONTINUING INTO THE EVENING HOURS. PERIODS OF BLOWING
DUST REDUCING VISIBILITY DOWN TO 2SM WILL BE COMMON WITH THE
STRONGER WINDS...ESPECIALLY ACROSS IMPERIAL COUNTY AND NEAR YUMA.

AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDED TAFS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY... IN THE WAKE OF THE DEPARTING TROUGH...NEXT
WEEK WILL SEE THE ARRIVAL OF A STRONG UPPER RIDGE OVER THE
SOUTHWESTERN CONUS FROM MONDAY THROUGH MOST OF THE WEEK. AS A RESULT
OF THIS RIDGE...TEMPERATURES WILL INCREASE SUBSTANTIALLY AND
APPROACH THE TRIPLE DIGITS WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. AFTERNOON
HUMIDITIES WILL DROP INTO THE LOWER TEENS AND UPPER SINGLE DIGITS
WITH FAIR OVERNIGHT RECOVERIES EXPECTED. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND
SHOULD FOLLOW TYPICAL DIURNAL PATTERNS NEXT WEEK.

&&

.PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AZ...NONE.

CA...WIND ADVISORY FROM 1 PM TO 9 PM PDT TODAY FOR CAZ030>033.

&&

$$

VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/PHOENIX

DISCUSSION...VASQUEZ
AVIATION...MEYERS
FIRE WEATHER...LEINS



000
FXUS65 KPSR 251003
AFDPSR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PHOENIX AZ
300 AM MST SAT APR 25 2015


.SYNOPSIS...A STRONG COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO MOVE INTO THE REGION
LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. AHEAD OF THE FRONT...GUSTY
AFTERNOON SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL DEVELOP...STRONGEST IN SOUTHEAST
CALIFORNIA AND THE COLORADO RIVER VALLEY. THE CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL ALSO INCREASE LATE TODAY AND TONIGHT...BUT MAINLY
ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH CENTRAL ARIZONA. LINGERING
SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED SUNDAY OVER EASTERN ARIZONA...WITH CLEARING
OVER SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA AND SOUTHWEST ARIZONA. DRIER AND MUCH
WARMER WEATHER IS EXPECTED NEXT WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

.NOTE...A STRONG CLASSICAL COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE IS EXPECTED IN
CENTRAL AZ SATURDAY EVENING WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR BRIEF HEAVY RAIN
AND STRONG THUNDERSTORM WIND.

TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY...REGIONAL WEATHER BALLOON SOUNDINGS FRIDAY
EVENING CONTINUED TO SHOW A RELATIVELY MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER ABOUT 6
TO 7000 FEET DEEP EXTENDING FROM SOUTHERN CA TO SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH
CENTRAL AZ. THIS MOISTURE IS SIGNIFICANT RELATIVE TO THE COOLER
TEMPS ALOFT...AND FRONTAL PASSAGE EXPECTED LATE SATURDAY AFTERNOON
AND EVENING.

OTHERWISE...A POWERFUL AND FAST MOVING NEGATIVE TILT DIFLUENT TROF
IS STILL FORECAST TO MOVE INTO CENTRAL AZ LATE SATURDAY AFTERNOON
AND EVENING. CURRENT MODELS...SPECIFICALLY THE GFS...IS NOT ONLY A
LITTLE FASTER WITH THE COLD FRONT...BUT IT DEEPENS THE TROF SLIGHTLY
MORE EASTWARD INTO CENTRAL AZ. A VERY PROGRESSIVE UPSTREAM PACIFIC
FLOW PATTERN IS PERHAPS PUSHING THIS SYSTEM FASTER/EASTWARD THAN
EARLIER MODEL RUNS. THEREFORE PRECIP CHANCES ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA...INCLUDING PHOENIX WILL LIKELY START A LITTLE EARLIER...
MEANING LATE AFTERNOON. THE HEAVIEST PRECIP WITH A CHANCE OF TSTMS
HOWEVER IS SLATED FOR THIS EVENING...AFTER DARK...IN SOUTH CENTRAL
AZ.

FOR TODAY AND TONIGHT...INCREASING CLOUDS BUT NO PRECIP IS EXPECTED
THE FIRST HALF OF THE DAY. BACKING PRE-FRONTAL WINDS AND WARM
ADVECTION AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT WILL MAKE FOR A WINDY AFTERNOON...
WITH THE STRONGEST WINDS IN SOUTHEAST CA/COLORADO RIVER WHERE A WIND
ADVISORY IS POSTED FOR GUSTS BETWEEN 35 AND 45 MPH.

THE COLD FRONT BY 5 PM LOCAL TIME WILL HAVE JUST MOVED ACROSS THE
COLORADO RIVER...THEN INTO PHOENIX AREA BY 8 PM. THE BEST CHANCE OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS BY 5 PM WILL DEVELOP JUST NORTHWEST AND
NORTH OF BLYTHE CA ALONG THE COLORADO RIVER...AND OVER PORTIONS OF
LA PAZ COUNTY. SHOWERS AND TSTMS DEVELOP ALONG THE COLD FRONT IN
PHOENIX BY 8 PM. IF THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP...THEIR FAST MOVEMENT
COMBINED WITH PRECIP FALLING THROUGH 20-30 KNOT 850-700 MB
SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS COULD CAUSE SUDDEN GUSTS TO PERHAPS 45 MPH.

SINCE THIS IS A FAST MOVING SYSTEM...MOST SHOWERS BY 5 AM SUN WILL
BE CONFINED TO AREAS GENERALLY FROM PHOENIX EASTWARD. SAME FOR THE
SUNDAY AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING PERIOD.

SUNDAY NIGHT...RAPID CLEARING IS EXPECTED.

MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...DRY NORTHERLY FLOW WILL DEVELOP MONDAY AND
TUESDAY FOLLOWED BY A BUILDING RIDGE OVER THE REGION WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY. MUCH WARMER TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST WEDNESDAY WITH NEAR
100 DEGREE HEAT ON THE WARMEST DESERTS.

&&

.AVIATION...
SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA INCLUDING KPHX...KIWA...AND KSDL...
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES WITH FEW-SCT CLOUDS A0A 10KFT OVERNIGHT INTO SAT
MORNING. WINDS GENERALLY LIGHT 10KT OR LESS...BUT APPROACHING UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH WILL INCREASE WINDS AFTER 17Z...BECOMING GUSTY UP TO
25KT OR SO DURING THE AFTERNOON...EVEN STRONGER TO 30KT SATURDAY
EVENING. PRECIPITATION CHANCES ALSO INCREASE AFTER 21Z...WITH
SCATTERED SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE OVER THE DESERTS.

SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA AND SOUTHWEST ARIZONA INCLUDING KIPL AND KBLH...
FEW-SCT HIGH CLOUDS OVERNIGHT...WITH WINDS REMAINING LOCALLY GUSTY
NEAR KIPL UNTIL AROUND 10Z. APPROACHING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL ONCE
AGAIN ELEVATE WINDS...WITH WINDS STEADILY INCREASING AFTER 16Z
SATURDAY...PEAK GUSTS UP TO 40KT WILL BE COMMON ACROSS THE AREA BY
LATE AFTERNOON CONTINUING INTO THE EVENING HOURS. PERIODS OF BLOWING
DUST REDUCING VISIBILITY DOWN TO 2SM WILL BE COMMON WITH THE
STRONGER WINDS...ESPECIALLY ACROSS IMPERIAL COUNTY AND NEAR YUMA.

AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDED TAFS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY... IN THE WAKE OF THE DEPARTING TROUGH...NEXT
WEEK WILL SEE THE ARRIVAL OF A STRONG UPPER RIDGE OVER THE
SOUTHWESTERN CONUS FROM MONDAY THROUGH MOST OF THE WEEK. AS A RESULT
OF THIS RIDGE...TEMPERATURES WILL INCREASE SUBSTANTIALLY AND
APPROACH THE TRIPLE DIGITS WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. AFTERNOON
HUMIDITIES WILL DROP INTO THE LOWER TEENS AND UPPER SINGLE DIGITS
WITH FAIR OVERNIGHT RECOVERIES EXPECTED. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND
SHOULD FOLLOW TYPICAL DIURNAL PATTERNS NEXT WEEK.

&&

.PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AZ...NONE.

CA...WIND ADVISORY FROM 1 PM TO 9 PM PDT TODAY FOR CAZ030>033.

&&

$$

VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/PHOENIX

DISCUSSION...VASQUEZ
AVIATION...MEYERS
FIRE WEATHER...LEINS



000
FXUS65 KPSR 251003
AFDPSR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PHOENIX AZ
300 AM MST SAT APR 25 2015


.SYNOPSIS...A STRONG COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO MOVE INTO THE REGION
LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. AHEAD OF THE FRONT...GUSTY
AFTERNOON SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL DEVELOP...STRONGEST IN SOUTHEAST
CALIFORNIA AND THE COLORADO RIVER VALLEY. THE CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL ALSO INCREASE LATE TODAY AND TONIGHT...BUT MAINLY
ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH CENTRAL ARIZONA. LINGERING
SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED SUNDAY OVER EASTERN ARIZONA...WITH CLEARING
OVER SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA AND SOUTHWEST ARIZONA. DRIER AND MUCH
WARMER WEATHER IS EXPECTED NEXT WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

.NOTE...A STRONG CLASSICAL COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE IS EXPECTED IN
CENTRAL AZ SATURDAY EVENING WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR BRIEF HEAVY RAIN
AND STRONG THUNDERSTORM WIND.

TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY...REGIONAL WEATHER BALLOON SOUNDINGS FRIDAY
EVENING CONTINUED TO SHOW A RELATIVELY MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER ABOUT 6
TO 7000 FEET DEEP EXTENDING FROM SOUTHERN CA TO SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH
CENTRAL AZ. THIS MOISTURE IS SIGNIFICANT RELATIVE TO THE COOLER
TEMPS ALOFT...AND FRONTAL PASSAGE EXPECTED LATE SATURDAY AFTERNOON
AND EVENING.

OTHERWISE...A POWERFUL AND FAST MOVING NEGATIVE TILT DIFLUENT TROF
IS STILL FORECAST TO MOVE INTO CENTRAL AZ LATE SATURDAY AFTERNOON
AND EVENING. CURRENT MODELS...SPECIFICALLY THE GFS...IS NOT ONLY A
LITTLE FASTER WITH THE COLD FRONT...BUT IT DEEPENS THE TROF SLIGHTLY
MORE EASTWARD INTO CENTRAL AZ. A VERY PROGRESSIVE UPSTREAM PACIFIC
FLOW PATTERN IS PERHAPS PUSHING THIS SYSTEM FASTER/EASTWARD THAN
EARLIER MODEL RUNS. THEREFORE PRECIP CHANCES ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA...INCLUDING PHOENIX WILL LIKELY START A LITTLE EARLIER...
MEANING LATE AFTERNOON. THE HEAVIEST PRECIP WITH A CHANCE OF TSTMS
HOWEVER IS SLATED FOR THIS EVENING...AFTER DARK...IN SOUTH CENTRAL
AZ.

FOR TODAY AND TONIGHT...INCREASING CLOUDS BUT NO PRECIP IS EXPECTED
THE FIRST HALF OF THE DAY. BACKING PRE-FRONTAL WINDS AND WARM
ADVECTION AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT WILL MAKE FOR A WINDY AFTERNOON...
WITH THE STRONGEST WINDS IN SOUTHEAST CA/COLORADO RIVER WHERE A WIND
ADVISORY IS POSTED FOR GUSTS BETWEEN 35 AND 45 MPH.

THE COLD FRONT BY 5 PM LOCAL TIME WILL HAVE JUST MOVED ACROSS THE
COLORADO RIVER...THEN INTO PHOENIX AREA BY 8 PM. THE BEST CHANCE OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS BY 5 PM WILL DEVELOP JUST NORTHWEST AND
NORTH OF BLYTHE CA ALONG THE COLORADO RIVER...AND OVER PORTIONS OF
LA PAZ COUNTY. SHOWERS AND TSTMS DEVELOP ALONG THE COLD FRONT IN
PHOENIX BY 8 PM. IF THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP...THEIR FAST MOVEMENT
COMBINED WITH PRECIP FALLING THROUGH 20-30 KNOT 850-700 MB
SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS COULD CAUSE SUDDEN GUSTS TO PERHAPS 45 MPH.

SINCE THIS IS A FAST MOVING SYSTEM...MOST SHOWERS BY 5 AM SUN WILL
BE CONFINED TO AREAS GENERALLY FROM PHOENIX EASTWARD. SAME FOR THE
SUNDAY AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING PERIOD.

SUNDAY NIGHT...RAPID CLEARING IS EXPECTED.

MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...DRY NORTHERLY FLOW WILL DEVELOP MONDAY AND
TUESDAY FOLLOWED BY A BUILDING RIDGE OVER THE REGION WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY. MUCH WARMER TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST WEDNESDAY WITH NEAR
100 DEGREE HEAT ON THE WARMEST DESERTS.

&&

.AVIATION...
SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA INCLUDING KPHX...KIWA...AND KSDL...
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES WITH FEW-SCT CLOUDS A0A 10KFT OVERNIGHT INTO SAT
MORNING. WINDS GENERALLY LIGHT 10KT OR LESS...BUT APPROACHING UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH WILL INCREASE WINDS AFTER 17Z...BECOMING GUSTY UP TO
25KT OR SO DURING THE AFTERNOON...EVEN STRONGER TO 30KT SATURDAY
EVENING. PRECIPITATION CHANCES ALSO INCREASE AFTER 21Z...WITH
SCATTERED SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE OVER THE DESERTS.

SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA AND SOUTHWEST ARIZONA INCLUDING KIPL AND KBLH...
FEW-SCT HIGH CLOUDS OVERNIGHT...WITH WINDS REMAINING LOCALLY GUSTY
NEAR KIPL UNTIL AROUND 10Z. APPROACHING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL ONCE
AGAIN ELEVATE WINDS...WITH WINDS STEADILY INCREASING AFTER 16Z
SATURDAY...PEAK GUSTS UP TO 40KT WILL BE COMMON ACROSS THE AREA BY
LATE AFTERNOON CONTINUING INTO THE EVENING HOURS. PERIODS OF BLOWING
DUST REDUCING VISIBILITY DOWN TO 2SM WILL BE COMMON WITH THE
STRONGER WINDS...ESPECIALLY ACROSS IMPERIAL COUNTY AND NEAR YUMA.

AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDED TAFS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY... IN THE WAKE OF THE DEPARTING TROUGH...NEXT
WEEK WILL SEE THE ARRIVAL OF A STRONG UPPER RIDGE OVER THE
SOUTHWESTERN CONUS FROM MONDAY THROUGH MOST OF THE WEEK. AS A RESULT
OF THIS RIDGE...TEMPERATURES WILL INCREASE SUBSTANTIALLY AND
APPROACH THE TRIPLE DIGITS WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. AFTERNOON
HUMIDITIES WILL DROP INTO THE LOWER TEENS AND UPPER SINGLE DIGITS
WITH FAIR OVERNIGHT RECOVERIES EXPECTED. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND
SHOULD FOLLOW TYPICAL DIURNAL PATTERNS NEXT WEEK.

&&

.PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AZ...NONE.

CA...WIND ADVISORY FROM 1 PM TO 9 PM PDT TODAY FOR CAZ030>033.

&&

$$

VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/PHOENIX

DISCUSSION...VASQUEZ
AVIATION...MEYERS
FIRE WEATHER...LEINS



000
FXUS65 KPSR 251003
AFDPSR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PHOENIX AZ
300 AM MST SAT APR 25 2015


.SYNOPSIS...A STRONG COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO MOVE INTO THE REGION
LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. AHEAD OF THE FRONT...GUSTY
AFTERNOON SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL DEVELOP...STRONGEST IN SOUTHEAST
CALIFORNIA AND THE COLORADO RIVER VALLEY. THE CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL ALSO INCREASE LATE TODAY AND TONIGHT...BUT MAINLY
ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH CENTRAL ARIZONA. LINGERING
SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED SUNDAY OVER EASTERN ARIZONA...WITH CLEARING
OVER SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA AND SOUTHWEST ARIZONA. DRIER AND MUCH
WARMER WEATHER IS EXPECTED NEXT WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

.NOTE...A STRONG CLASSICAL COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE IS EXPECTED IN
CENTRAL AZ SATURDAY EVENING WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR BRIEF HEAVY RAIN
AND STRONG THUNDERSTORM WIND.

TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY...REGIONAL WEATHER BALLOON SOUNDINGS FRIDAY
EVENING CONTINUED TO SHOW A RELATIVELY MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER ABOUT 6
TO 7000 FEET DEEP EXTENDING FROM SOUTHERN CA TO SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH
CENTRAL AZ. THIS MOISTURE IS SIGNIFICANT RELATIVE TO THE COOLER
TEMPS ALOFT...AND FRONTAL PASSAGE EXPECTED LATE SATURDAY AFTERNOON
AND EVENING.

OTHERWISE...A POWERFUL AND FAST MOVING NEGATIVE TILT DIFLUENT TROF
IS STILL FORECAST TO MOVE INTO CENTRAL AZ LATE SATURDAY AFTERNOON
AND EVENING. CURRENT MODELS...SPECIFICALLY THE GFS...IS NOT ONLY A
LITTLE FASTER WITH THE COLD FRONT...BUT IT DEEPENS THE TROF SLIGHTLY
MORE EASTWARD INTO CENTRAL AZ. A VERY PROGRESSIVE UPSTREAM PACIFIC
FLOW PATTERN IS PERHAPS PUSHING THIS SYSTEM FASTER/EASTWARD THAN
EARLIER MODEL RUNS. THEREFORE PRECIP CHANCES ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA...INCLUDING PHOENIX WILL LIKELY START A LITTLE EARLIER...
MEANING LATE AFTERNOON. THE HEAVIEST PRECIP WITH A CHANCE OF TSTMS
HOWEVER IS SLATED FOR THIS EVENING...AFTER DARK...IN SOUTH CENTRAL
AZ.

FOR TODAY AND TONIGHT...INCREASING CLOUDS BUT NO PRECIP IS EXPECTED
THE FIRST HALF OF THE DAY. BACKING PRE-FRONTAL WINDS AND WARM
ADVECTION AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT WILL MAKE FOR A WINDY AFTERNOON...
WITH THE STRONGEST WINDS IN SOUTHEAST CA/COLORADO RIVER WHERE A WIND
ADVISORY IS POSTED FOR GUSTS BETWEEN 35 AND 45 MPH.

THE COLD FRONT BY 5 PM LOCAL TIME WILL HAVE JUST MOVED ACROSS THE
COLORADO RIVER...THEN INTO PHOENIX AREA BY 8 PM. THE BEST CHANCE OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS BY 5 PM WILL DEVELOP JUST NORTHWEST AND
NORTH OF BLYTHE CA ALONG THE COLORADO RIVER...AND OVER PORTIONS OF
LA PAZ COUNTY. SHOWERS AND TSTMS DEVELOP ALONG THE COLD FRONT IN
PHOENIX BY 8 PM. IF THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP...THEIR FAST MOVEMENT
COMBINED WITH PRECIP FALLING THROUGH 20-30 KNOT 850-700 MB
SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS COULD CAUSE SUDDEN GUSTS TO PERHAPS 45 MPH.

SINCE THIS IS A FAST MOVING SYSTEM...MOST SHOWERS BY 5 AM SUN WILL
BE CONFINED TO AREAS GENERALLY FROM PHOENIX EASTWARD. SAME FOR THE
SUNDAY AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING PERIOD.

SUNDAY NIGHT...RAPID CLEARING IS EXPECTED.

MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...DRY NORTHERLY FLOW WILL DEVELOP MONDAY AND
TUESDAY FOLLOWED BY A BUILDING RIDGE OVER THE REGION WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY. MUCH WARMER TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST WEDNESDAY WITH NEAR
100 DEGREE HEAT ON THE WARMEST DESERTS.

&&

.AVIATION...
SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA INCLUDING KPHX...KIWA...AND KSDL...
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES WITH FEW-SCT CLOUDS A0A 10KFT OVERNIGHT INTO SAT
MORNING. WINDS GENERALLY LIGHT 10KT OR LESS...BUT APPROACHING UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH WILL INCREASE WINDS AFTER 17Z...BECOMING GUSTY UP TO
25KT OR SO DURING THE AFTERNOON...EVEN STRONGER TO 30KT SATURDAY
EVENING. PRECIPITATION CHANCES ALSO INCREASE AFTER 21Z...WITH
SCATTERED SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE OVER THE DESERTS.

SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA AND SOUTHWEST ARIZONA INCLUDING KIPL AND KBLH...
FEW-SCT HIGH CLOUDS OVERNIGHT...WITH WINDS REMAINING LOCALLY GUSTY
NEAR KIPL UNTIL AROUND 10Z. APPROACHING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL ONCE
AGAIN ELEVATE WINDS...WITH WINDS STEADILY INCREASING AFTER 16Z
SATURDAY...PEAK GUSTS UP TO 40KT WILL BE COMMON ACROSS THE AREA BY
LATE AFTERNOON CONTINUING INTO THE EVENING HOURS. PERIODS OF BLOWING
DUST REDUCING VISIBILITY DOWN TO 2SM WILL BE COMMON WITH THE
STRONGER WINDS...ESPECIALLY ACROSS IMPERIAL COUNTY AND NEAR YUMA.

AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDED TAFS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY... IN THE WAKE OF THE DEPARTING TROUGH...NEXT
WEEK WILL SEE THE ARRIVAL OF A STRONG UPPER RIDGE OVER THE
SOUTHWESTERN CONUS FROM MONDAY THROUGH MOST OF THE WEEK. AS A RESULT
OF THIS RIDGE...TEMPERATURES WILL INCREASE SUBSTANTIALLY AND
APPROACH THE TRIPLE DIGITS WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. AFTERNOON
HUMIDITIES WILL DROP INTO THE LOWER TEENS AND UPPER SINGLE DIGITS
WITH FAIR OVERNIGHT RECOVERIES EXPECTED. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND
SHOULD FOLLOW TYPICAL DIURNAL PATTERNS NEXT WEEK.

&&

.PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AZ...NONE.

CA...WIND ADVISORY FROM 1 PM TO 9 PM PDT TODAY FOR CAZ030>033.

&&

$$

VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/PHOENIX

DISCUSSION...VASQUEZ
AVIATION...MEYERS
FIRE WEATHER...LEINS



000
FXUS65 KTWC 250937
AFDTWC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ
237 AM MST SAT APR 25 2015

.SYNOPSIS...GUSTY WINDS WILL OCCUR TODAY FOLLOWED BY A GOOD CHANCE
OF SHOWERS TONIGHT AND SUNDAY AS A VIGOROUS LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
MOVES ACROSS THE FOUR CORNERS REGION. COOLER TEMPERATURES WILL ALSO
OCCUR SUNDAY. A FEW LINGERING SHOWERS MAY OCCUR ACROSS THE WHITE
MOUNTAINS MONDAY. OTHERWISE...DRY CONDITIONS WITH A STRONG WARMING
TREND WILL PREVAIL MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...A STORM SYSTEM FORECAST TO PASS THROUGH THE FOUR
CORNERS REGION ON SUNDAY WILL BRING GUSTY WINDS TO THE AREA TODAY AS
IT APPROACHES. THE CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE
ON THE INCREASE LATER TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY. THE SYSTEM WILL ALSO
USHER IN COLDER TEMPERATURES WITH THE SNOW LEVEL LOWERING TO 7-8KFT
EARLY SUNDAY. TOTAL SNOW ACCUMULATIONS OF LESS THAN 6 INCHES CAN BE
EXPECTED IN THE WHITE MOUNTAINS. MODELS TRACK THE SYSTEM EAST OF THE
REGION SUNDAY NIGHT WITH A STRONG RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT
BUILDING OVER THE AREA EARLY NEXT WEEK. THIS RIDGE WILL RESULT IN
SIGNIFICANTLY WARMER DAYTIME TEMPERATURES BY WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...VALID THRU 26/12Z. FEW-SCT CLOUDS AROUND 6-10K FT AGL
WILL PREVAIL THRU THIS AFTERNOON. SURFACE WIND AT GENERALLY LESS
THAN 10 KTS THIS MORNING WILL INCREASE BETWEEN 16Z AND
19Z...BECOMING WLY/SWLY AT 15-22 KTS WITH GUSTS OF 25-35 KTS. THE
STRONGEST WINDS SHOULD OCCUR SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST OF KTUS THIS
AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY IN THE VICINITY OF KALK AND KDUG. WINDS WILL
DECREASE TO GENERALLY LESS THAN 15 KTS WITH A FEW GUSTS TO AROUND 20
KTS AFTER 26/03Z. INCREASING CLOUDS AND LOWERING CLOUD HEIGHTS THIS
EVENING WILL GIVE WAY TO CHANCES OF -SHRA THROUGH SUNDAY. RAIN
CHANCES WILL BE BEST TO THE NORTH OF A KTUS-KSAD LINE. AVIATION
DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR TAF AMENDMENTS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...GUSTY WEST TO SOUTHWEST WINDS AT 15-25 MPH AND A FEW
GUSTS TO AROUND 40 MPH WILL OCCUR THIS AFTERNOON FOLLOWED BY A
CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY. THE
STRONGEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED IN THE SOUTHEAST CORNER OF THE
STATE...WHILE SHOWER CHANCES ARE BEST NORTH OF A LINE FROM ABOUT
TUCSON TO SAFFORD. ANY SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF
PRODUCING BRIEF GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS. SOME SPOTTY AND MARGINAL
RED FLAG CONDITIONS MAY OCCUR THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS THE EXTREME
SOUTHEAST CORNER OF COCHISE COUNTY...WITH HUMIDITY LEVELS HOVERING
RIGHT AROUND 15 PCT.

ANOTHER ROUND OF GUSTY WINDS IS EXPECTED SUNDAY AFTERNOON...WITH
SOME AREAS ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST CORNER OF THE STATE APPROACHING WIND
ADVISORY CRITERIA. A FEW LINGERING SHOWERS MAY PREVAIL ACROSS THE
WHITE MOUNTAINS MONDAY. OTHERWISE...EXPECT DRY CONDITIONS WITH A
PRONOUNCED WARMING TREND MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.

&&

.TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...YOUTUBE...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/TUCSON




000
FXUS65 KTWC 250937
AFDTWC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ
237 AM MST SAT APR 25 2015

.SYNOPSIS...GUSTY WINDS WILL OCCUR TODAY FOLLOWED BY A GOOD CHANCE
OF SHOWERS TONIGHT AND SUNDAY AS A VIGOROUS LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
MOVES ACROSS THE FOUR CORNERS REGION. COOLER TEMPERATURES WILL ALSO
OCCUR SUNDAY. A FEW LINGERING SHOWERS MAY OCCUR ACROSS THE WHITE
MOUNTAINS MONDAY. OTHERWISE...DRY CONDITIONS WITH A STRONG WARMING
TREND WILL PREVAIL MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...A STORM SYSTEM FORECAST TO PASS THROUGH THE FOUR
CORNERS REGION ON SUNDAY WILL BRING GUSTY WINDS TO THE AREA TODAY AS
IT APPROACHES. THE CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE
ON THE INCREASE LATER TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY. THE SYSTEM WILL ALSO
USHER IN COLDER TEMPERATURES WITH THE SNOW LEVEL LOWERING TO 7-8KFT
EARLY SUNDAY. TOTAL SNOW ACCUMULATIONS OF LESS THAN 6 INCHES CAN BE
EXPECTED IN THE WHITE MOUNTAINS. MODELS TRACK THE SYSTEM EAST OF THE
REGION SUNDAY NIGHT WITH A STRONG RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT
BUILDING OVER THE AREA EARLY NEXT WEEK. THIS RIDGE WILL RESULT IN
SIGNIFICANTLY WARMER DAYTIME TEMPERATURES BY WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...VALID THRU 26/12Z. FEW-SCT CLOUDS AROUND 6-10K FT AGL
WILL PREVAIL THRU THIS AFTERNOON. SURFACE WIND AT GENERALLY LESS
THAN 10 KTS THIS MORNING WILL INCREASE BETWEEN 16Z AND
19Z...BECOMING WLY/SWLY AT 15-22 KTS WITH GUSTS OF 25-35 KTS. THE
STRONGEST WINDS SHOULD OCCUR SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST OF KTUS THIS
AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY IN THE VICINITY OF KALK AND KDUG. WINDS WILL
DECREASE TO GENERALLY LESS THAN 15 KTS WITH A FEW GUSTS TO AROUND 20
KTS AFTER 26/03Z. INCREASING CLOUDS AND LOWERING CLOUD HEIGHTS THIS
EVENING WILL GIVE WAY TO CHANCES OF -SHRA THROUGH SUNDAY. RAIN
CHANCES WILL BE BEST TO THE NORTH OF A KTUS-KSAD LINE. AVIATION
DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR TAF AMENDMENTS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...GUSTY WEST TO SOUTHWEST WINDS AT 15-25 MPH AND A FEW
GUSTS TO AROUND 40 MPH WILL OCCUR THIS AFTERNOON FOLLOWED BY A
CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY. THE
STRONGEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED IN THE SOUTHEAST CORNER OF THE
STATE...WHILE SHOWER CHANCES ARE BEST NORTH OF A LINE FROM ABOUT
TUCSON TO SAFFORD. ANY SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF
PRODUCING BRIEF GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS. SOME SPOTTY AND MARGINAL
RED FLAG CONDITIONS MAY OCCUR THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS THE EXTREME
SOUTHEAST CORNER OF COCHISE COUNTY...WITH HUMIDITY LEVELS HOVERING
RIGHT AROUND 15 PCT.

ANOTHER ROUND OF GUSTY WINDS IS EXPECTED SUNDAY AFTERNOON...WITH
SOME AREAS ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST CORNER OF THE STATE APPROACHING WIND
ADVISORY CRITERIA. A FEW LINGERING SHOWERS MAY PREVAIL ACROSS THE
WHITE MOUNTAINS MONDAY. OTHERWISE...EXPECT DRY CONDITIONS WITH A
PRONOUNCED WARMING TREND MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.

&&

.TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...YOUTUBE...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/TUCSON



000
FXUS65 KTWC 250937
AFDTWC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ
237 AM MST SAT APR 25 2015

.SYNOPSIS...GUSTY WINDS WILL OCCUR TODAY FOLLOWED BY A GOOD CHANCE
OF SHOWERS TONIGHT AND SUNDAY AS A VIGOROUS LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
MOVES ACROSS THE FOUR CORNERS REGION. COOLER TEMPERATURES WILL ALSO
OCCUR SUNDAY. A FEW LINGERING SHOWERS MAY OCCUR ACROSS THE WHITE
MOUNTAINS MONDAY. OTHERWISE...DRY CONDITIONS WITH A STRONG WARMING
TREND WILL PREVAIL MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...A STORM SYSTEM FORECAST TO PASS THROUGH THE FOUR
CORNERS REGION ON SUNDAY WILL BRING GUSTY WINDS TO THE AREA TODAY AS
IT APPROACHES. THE CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE
ON THE INCREASE LATER TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY. THE SYSTEM WILL ALSO
USHER IN COLDER TEMPERATURES WITH THE SNOW LEVEL LOWERING TO 7-8KFT
EARLY SUNDAY. TOTAL SNOW ACCUMULATIONS OF LESS THAN 6 INCHES CAN BE
EXPECTED IN THE WHITE MOUNTAINS. MODELS TRACK THE SYSTEM EAST OF THE
REGION SUNDAY NIGHT WITH A STRONG RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT
BUILDING OVER THE AREA EARLY NEXT WEEK. THIS RIDGE WILL RESULT IN
SIGNIFICANTLY WARMER DAYTIME TEMPERATURES BY WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...VALID THRU 26/12Z. FEW-SCT CLOUDS AROUND 6-10K FT AGL
WILL PREVAIL THRU THIS AFTERNOON. SURFACE WIND AT GENERALLY LESS
THAN 10 KTS THIS MORNING WILL INCREASE BETWEEN 16Z AND
19Z...BECOMING WLY/SWLY AT 15-22 KTS WITH GUSTS OF 25-35 KTS. THE
STRONGEST WINDS SHOULD OCCUR SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST OF KTUS THIS
AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY IN THE VICINITY OF KALK AND KDUG. WINDS WILL
DECREASE TO GENERALLY LESS THAN 15 KTS WITH A FEW GUSTS TO AROUND 20
KTS AFTER 26/03Z. INCREASING CLOUDS AND LOWERING CLOUD HEIGHTS THIS
EVENING WILL GIVE WAY TO CHANCES OF -SHRA THROUGH SUNDAY. RAIN
CHANCES WILL BE BEST TO THE NORTH OF A KTUS-KSAD LINE. AVIATION
DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR TAF AMENDMENTS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...GUSTY WEST TO SOUTHWEST WINDS AT 15-25 MPH AND A FEW
GUSTS TO AROUND 40 MPH WILL OCCUR THIS AFTERNOON FOLLOWED BY A
CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY. THE
STRONGEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED IN THE SOUTHEAST CORNER OF THE
STATE...WHILE SHOWER CHANCES ARE BEST NORTH OF A LINE FROM ABOUT
TUCSON TO SAFFORD. ANY SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF
PRODUCING BRIEF GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS. SOME SPOTTY AND MARGINAL
RED FLAG CONDITIONS MAY OCCUR THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS THE EXTREME
SOUTHEAST CORNER OF COCHISE COUNTY...WITH HUMIDITY LEVELS HOVERING
RIGHT AROUND 15 PCT.

ANOTHER ROUND OF GUSTY WINDS IS EXPECTED SUNDAY AFTERNOON...WITH
SOME AREAS ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST CORNER OF THE STATE APPROACHING WIND
ADVISORY CRITERIA. A FEW LINGERING SHOWERS MAY PREVAIL ACROSS THE
WHITE MOUNTAINS MONDAY. OTHERWISE...EXPECT DRY CONDITIONS WITH A
PRONOUNCED WARMING TREND MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.

&&

.TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...YOUTUBE...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/TUCSON




000
FXUS65 KPSR 250506
AFDPSR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PHOENIX AZ
1000 PM MST FRI APR 24 2015


.SYNOPSIS...ANOTHER WEATHER SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH THE REGION SATURDAY
AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY BRINGING MORE CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS...MAINLY EAST OF THE LOWER COLORADO RIVER VALLEY.
BREEZY TO WINDY CONDITIONS DEVELOP SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND CONTINUE
INTO MONDAY...ESPECIALLY OVER SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA. DRY AND MUCH
WARMER WEATHER IS EXPECTED NEXT WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
TONIGHT...REGIONAL SATELLITE IMAGERY/UPPER AIR PLOTS SHOW MOSTLY
CLEAR SKIES OVER SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA AND SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA THIS
EVENING...CLOUDS QUICKLY THINNING AND DISAPPEARING AS THE WEAK UPPER
LEVEL LOW THAT BROUGHT THE CLOUDS AND PRECIPITATION EARLIER TODAY
CONTINUES TO MOVE EAST OF THE ROCKIES. BEHIND THE DEPARTING LOW...A
BRIEF PERIOD OF MORE STABLE CONDITIONS/QUASI ZONAL FLOW WILL KEEP A
LULL IN ACTIVITY OVERNIGHT INTO SATURDAY BEFORE THE NEXT MORE POTENT
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST QUICKLY DROPS SOUTH
THROUGH THE GREAT BASIN AND ENTERS OUR FORECAST AREA SATURDAY
AFTERNOON. EVEN THOUGH BOTH THE NAM12 AND GFS INDICATE A MINOR SHORT
WAVE MOVING THROUGH NORTHERN ARIZONA TONIGHT MAY KEEP CONDITIONS
UNSETTLED...THE IMPETUS FOR ISOLATED SHOWERS SHOULD BE NORTH AND
EAST OF PHOENIX AND OUR FORECAST AREA. WITH THIS IN MIND...REMOVED
POPS FOR TONIGHT FROM ALL ZONES AND UPDATED THE FORECAST. ALL OTHER
INHERITED GRIDS IN THE SHORT TERM LOOK GOOD/ON TRACK.

SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST SYSTEM DIGS
SOUTHEASTWARD AND BEGINS ENTERING OUR FORECAST AREA SATURDAY
AFTERNOON. DYNAMICAL FORCING SEEN IN DIV Q AND UPPER DIVERGENCE
FIELDS AFFECTS OUR AREA PRIMARILY BETWEEN 18Z SAT AND 12Z SUNDAY.
THE DEEPER MOISTURE LAGS THAT BY AT LEAST A FEW HOURS. THERMAL
CONTRAST ASSOCIATED WITH FRONTAL BAND NOT LOOKING OVERLY IMPRESSIVE
NOR DOES THE CAPE. HOWEVER...MODEL SOUNDINGS INDICATE AT LEAST A
LITTLE BIT OF INSTABILITY TO BE HAD THUS THERE IS ALSO A CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS. BEST CHANCES FOR PRECIP IN OUR FORECAST AREA WILL BE
OVER OUR ARIZONA ZONES AND ESPECIALLY OVER SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA.
FOR OUTDOOR INTERESTS THIS WEEKEND...LOOKS LIKE MUCH OF THE DAYLIGHT
HOURS SATURDAY WILL BE DRY...LESS SO SUNDAY. WITH THE APPROACH OF
THE SYSTEM...WINDY CONDITIONS DEVELOP OVER SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA AND
PORTIONS OF SOUTHWEST ARIZONA SATURDAY AFTERNOON CONTINUING INTO THE
EVENING...NOT AS MUCH WIND FOR SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA. WINDS WILL BE
STRONGEST OVER SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA AND THE WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN
EFFECT. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE NICELY BELOW NORMAL.

MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY... DRY NORTHERLY FLOW WILL DEVELOP MONDAY AND
TUESDAY FOLLOWED BY A BUILDING RIDGE OVER THE REGION WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY. MUCH WARMER TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST WEDNESDAY WITH NEAR
100 DEGREE HEAT ON THE WARMEST DESERTS.

&&

.AVIATION...
SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA INCLUDING KPHX...KIWA...AND KSDL...
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES WITH FEW-SCT CLOUDS A0A 10KFT OVERNIGHT INTO SAT
MORNING. WINDS GENERALLY LIGHT 10KT OR LESS...BUT APPROACHING UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH WILL INCREASE WINDS AFTER 17Z...BECOMING GUSTY UP TO
25KT OR SO DURING THE AFTERNOON...EVEN STRONGER TO 30KT SATURDAY
EVENING. PRECIPITATION CHANCES ALSO INCREASE AFTER 21Z...WITH
SCATTERED SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE OVER THE DESERTS.

SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA AND SOUTHWEST ARIZONA INCLUDING KIPL AND KBLH...
FEW-SCT HIGH CLOUDS OVERNIGHT...WITH WINDS REMAINING LOCALLY GUSTY
NEAR KIPL UNTIL AROUND 10Z. APPROACHING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL ONCE
AGAIN ELEVATE WINDS...WITH WINDS STEADILY INCREASING AFTER 16Z
SATURDAY...PEAK GUSTS UP TO 40KT WILL BE COMMON ACROSS THE AREA BY
LATE AFTERNOON CONTINUING INTO THE EVENING HOURS. PERIODS OF BLOWING
DUST REDUCING VISIBILITY DOWN TO 2SM WILL BE COMMON WITH THE
STRONGER WINDS...ESPECIALLY ACROSS IMPERIAL COUNTY AND NEAR YUMA.

AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDED TAFS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY... IN THE WAKE OF THE DEPARTING TROUGH...NEXT
WEEK WILL SEE THE ARRIVAL OF A STRONG UPPER RIDGE OVER THE
SOUTHWESTERN CONUS FROM MONDAY THROUGH MOST OF THE WEEK. AS A RESULT
OF THIS RIDGE...TEMPERATURES WILL INCREASE SUBSTANTIALLY AND
APPROACH THE TRIPLE DIGITS WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. AFTERNOON
HUMIDITIES WILL DROP INTO THE LOWER TEENS AND UPPER SINGLE DIGITS
WITH FAIR OVERNIGHT RECOVERIES EXPECTED. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND
SHOULD FOLLOW TYPICAL DIURNAL PATTERNS NEXT WEEK.

&&

.PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AZ...NONE.

CA...WIND ADVISORY FROM 1 PM TO 9 PM PDT SATURDAY FOR CAZ030>033.

&&

$$

VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/PHOENIX

DISCUSSION...MEYERS/AJ
AVIATION...MEYERS
FIRE WEATHER...LEINS




000
FXUS65 KPSR 250506
AFDPSR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PHOENIX AZ
1000 PM MST FRI APR 24 2015


.SYNOPSIS...ANOTHER WEATHER SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH THE REGION SATURDAY
AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY BRINGING MORE CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS...MAINLY EAST OF THE LOWER COLORADO RIVER VALLEY.
BREEZY TO WINDY CONDITIONS DEVELOP SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND CONTINUE
INTO MONDAY...ESPECIALLY OVER SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA. DRY AND MUCH
WARMER WEATHER IS EXPECTED NEXT WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
TONIGHT...REGIONAL SATELLITE IMAGERY/UPPER AIR PLOTS SHOW MOSTLY
CLEAR SKIES OVER SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA AND SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA THIS
EVENING...CLOUDS QUICKLY THINNING AND DISAPPEARING AS THE WEAK UPPER
LEVEL LOW THAT BROUGHT THE CLOUDS AND PRECIPITATION EARLIER TODAY
CONTINUES TO MOVE EAST OF THE ROCKIES. BEHIND THE DEPARTING LOW...A
BRIEF PERIOD OF MORE STABLE CONDITIONS/QUASI ZONAL FLOW WILL KEEP A
LULL IN ACTIVITY OVERNIGHT INTO SATURDAY BEFORE THE NEXT MORE POTENT
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST QUICKLY DROPS SOUTH
THROUGH THE GREAT BASIN AND ENTERS OUR FORECAST AREA SATURDAY
AFTERNOON. EVEN THOUGH BOTH THE NAM12 AND GFS INDICATE A MINOR SHORT
WAVE MOVING THROUGH NORTHERN ARIZONA TONIGHT MAY KEEP CONDITIONS
UNSETTLED...THE IMPETUS FOR ISOLATED SHOWERS SHOULD BE NORTH AND
EAST OF PHOENIX AND OUR FORECAST AREA. WITH THIS IN MIND...REMOVED
POPS FOR TONIGHT FROM ALL ZONES AND UPDATED THE FORECAST. ALL OTHER
INHERITED GRIDS IN THE SHORT TERM LOOK GOOD/ON TRACK.

SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST SYSTEM DIGS
SOUTHEASTWARD AND BEGINS ENTERING OUR FORECAST AREA SATURDAY
AFTERNOON. DYNAMICAL FORCING SEEN IN DIV Q AND UPPER DIVERGENCE
FIELDS AFFECTS OUR AREA PRIMARILY BETWEEN 18Z SAT AND 12Z SUNDAY.
THE DEEPER MOISTURE LAGS THAT BY AT LEAST A FEW HOURS. THERMAL
CONTRAST ASSOCIATED WITH FRONTAL BAND NOT LOOKING OVERLY IMPRESSIVE
NOR DOES THE CAPE. HOWEVER...MODEL SOUNDINGS INDICATE AT LEAST A
LITTLE BIT OF INSTABILITY TO BE HAD THUS THERE IS ALSO A CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS. BEST CHANCES FOR PRECIP IN OUR FORECAST AREA WILL BE
OVER OUR ARIZONA ZONES AND ESPECIALLY OVER SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA.
FOR OUTDOOR INTERESTS THIS WEEKEND...LOOKS LIKE MUCH OF THE DAYLIGHT
HOURS SATURDAY WILL BE DRY...LESS SO SUNDAY. WITH THE APPROACH OF
THE SYSTEM...WINDY CONDITIONS DEVELOP OVER SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA AND
PORTIONS OF SOUTHWEST ARIZONA SATURDAY AFTERNOON CONTINUING INTO THE
EVENING...NOT AS MUCH WIND FOR SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA. WINDS WILL BE
STRONGEST OVER SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA AND THE WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN
EFFECT. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE NICELY BELOW NORMAL.

MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY... DRY NORTHERLY FLOW WILL DEVELOP MONDAY AND
TUESDAY FOLLOWED BY A BUILDING RIDGE OVER THE REGION WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY. MUCH WARMER TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST WEDNESDAY WITH NEAR
100 DEGREE HEAT ON THE WARMEST DESERTS.

&&

.AVIATION...
SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA INCLUDING KPHX...KIWA...AND KSDL...
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES WITH FEW-SCT CLOUDS A0A 10KFT OVERNIGHT INTO SAT
MORNING. WINDS GENERALLY LIGHT 10KT OR LESS...BUT APPROACHING UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH WILL INCREASE WINDS AFTER 17Z...BECOMING GUSTY UP TO
25KT OR SO DURING THE AFTERNOON...EVEN STRONGER TO 30KT SATURDAY
EVENING. PRECIPITATION CHANCES ALSO INCREASE AFTER 21Z...WITH
SCATTERED SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE OVER THE DESERTS.

SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA AND SOUTHWEST ARIZONA INCLUDING KIPL AND KBLH...
FEW-SCT HIGH CLOUDS OVERNIGHT...WITH WINDS REMAINING LOCALLY GUSTY
NEAR KIPL UNTIL AROUND 10Z. APPROACHING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL ONCE
AGAIN ELEVATE WINDS...WITH WINDS STEADILY INCREASING AFTER 16Z
SATURDAY...PEAK GUSTS UP TO 40KT WILL BE COMMON ACROSS THE AREA BY
LATE AFTERNOON CONTINUING INTO THE EVENING HOURS. PERIODS OF BLOWING
DUST REDUCING VISIBILITY DOWN TO 2SM WILL BE COMMON WITH THE
STRONGER WINDS...ESPECIALLY ACROSS IMPERIAL COUNTY AND NEAR YUMA.

AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDED TAFS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY... IN THE WAKE OF THE DEPARTING TROUGH...NEXT
WEEK WILL SEE THE ARRIVAL OF A STRONG UPPER RIDGE OVER THE
SOUTHWESTERN CONUS FROM MONDAY THROUGH MOST OF THE WEEK. AS A RESULT
OF THIS RIDGE...TEMPERATURES WILL INCREASE SUBSTANTIALLY AND
APPROACH THE TRIPLE DIGITS WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. AFTERNOON
HUMIDITIES WILL DROP INTO THE LOWER TEENS AND UPPER SINGLE DIGITS
WITH FAIR OVERNIGHT RECOVERIES EXPECTED. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND
SHOULD FOLLOW TYPICAL DIURNAL PATTERNS NEXT WEEK.

&&

.PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AZ...NONE.

CA...WIND ADVISORY FROM 1 PM TO 9 PM PDT SATURDAY FOR CAZ030>033.

&&

$$

VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/PHOENIX

DISCUSSION...MEYERS/AJ
AVIATION...MEYERS
FIRE WEATHER...LEINS




000
FXUS65 KPSR 250506
AFDPSR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PHOENIX AZ
1000 PM MST FRI APR 24 2015


.SYNOPSIS...ANOTHER WEATHER SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH THE REGION SATURDAY
AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY BRINGING MORE CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS...MAINLY EAST OF THE LOWER COLORADO RIVER VALLEY.
BREEZY TO WINDY CONDITIONS DEVELOP SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND CONTINUE
INTO MONDAY...ESPECIALLY OVER SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA. DRY AND MUCH
WARMER WEATHER IS EXPECTED NEXT WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
TONIGHT...REGIONAL SATELLITE IMAGERY/UPPER AIR PLOTS SHOW MOSTLY
CLEAR SKIES OVER SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA AND SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA THIS
EVENING...CLOUDS QUICKLY THINNING AND DISAPPEARING AS THE WEAK UPPER
LEVEL LOW THAT BROUGHT THE CLOUDS AND PRECIPITATION EARLIER TODAY
CONTINUES TO MOVE EAST OF THE ROCKIES. BEHIND THE DEPARTING LOW...A
BRIEF PERIOD OF MORE STABLE CONDITIONS/QUASI ZONAL FLOW WILL KEEP A
LULL IN ACTIVITY OVERNIGHT INTO SATURDAY BEFORE THE NEXT MORE POTENT
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST QUICKLY DROPS SOUTH
THROUGH THE GREAT BASIN AND ENTERS OUR FORECAST AREA SATURDAY
AFTERNOON. EVEN THOUGH BOTH THE NAM12 AND GFS INDICATE A MINOR SHORT
WAVE MOVING THROUGH NORTHERN ARIZONA TONIGHT MAY KEEP CONDITIONS
UNSETTLED...THE IMPETUS FOR ISOLATED SHOWERS SHOULD BE NORTH AND
EAST OF PHOENIX AND OUR FORECAST AREA. WITH THIS IN MIND...REMOVED
POPS FOR TONIGHT FROM ALL ZONES AND UPDATED THE FORECAST. ALL OTHER
INHERITED GRIDS IN THE SHORT TERM LOOK GOOD/ON TRACK.

SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST SYSTEM DIGS
SOUTHEASTWARD AND BEGINS ENTERING OUR FORECAST AREA SATURDAY
AFTERNOON. DYNAMICAL FORCING SEEN IN DIV Q AND UPPER DIVERGENCE
FIELDS AFFECTS OUR AREA PRIMARILY BETWEEN 18Z SAT AND 12Z SUNDAY.
THE DEEPER MOISTURE LAGS THAT BY AT LEAST A FEW HOURS. THERMAL
CONTRAST ASSOCIATED WITH FRONTAL BAND NOT LOOKING OVERLY IMPRESSIVE
NOR DOES THE CAPE. HOWEVER...MODEL SOUNDINGS INDICATE AT LEAST A
LITTLE BIT OF INSTABILITY TO BE HAD THUS THERE IS ALSO A CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS. BEST CHANCES FOR PRECIP IN OUR FORECAST AREA WILL BE
OVER OUR ARIZONA ZONES AND ESPECIALLY OVER SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA.
FOR OUTDOOR INTERESTS THIS WEEKEND...LOOKS LIKE MUCH OF THE DAYLIGHT
HOURS SATURDAY WILL BE DRY...LESS SO SUNDAY. WITH THE APPROACH OF
THE SYSTEM...WINDY CONDITIONS DEVELOP OVER SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA AND
PORTIONS OF SOUTHWEST ARIZONA SATURDAY AFTERNOON CONTINUING INTO THE
EVENING...NOT AS MUCH WIND FOR SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA. WINDS WILL BE
STRONGEST OVER SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA AND THE WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN
EFFECT. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE NICELY BELOW NORMAL.

MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY... DRY NORTHERLY FLOW WILL DEVELOP MONDAY AND
TUESDAY FOLLOWED BY A BUILDING RIDGE OVER THE REGION WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY. MUCH WARMER TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST WEDNESDAY WITH NEAR
100 DEGREE HEAT ON THE WARMEST DESERTS.

&&

.AVIATION...
SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA INCLUDING KPHX...KIWA...AND KSDL...
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES WITH FEW-SCT CLOUDS A0A 10KFT OVERNIGHT INTO SAT
MORNING. WINDS GENERALLY LIGHT 10KT OR LESS...BUT APPROACHING UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH WILL INCREASE WINDS AFTER 17Z...BECOMING GUSTY UP TO
25KT OR SO DURING THE AFTERNOON...EVEN STRONGER TO 30KT SATURDAY
EVENING. PRECIPITATION CHANCES ALSO INCREASE AFTER 21Z...WITH
SCATTERED SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE OVER THE DESERTS.

SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA AND SOUTHWEST ARIZONA INCLUDING KIPL AND KBLH...
FEW-SCT HIGH CLOUDS OVERNIGHT...WITH WINDS REMAINING LOCALLY GUSTY
NEAR KIPL UNTIL AROUND 10Z. APPROACHING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL ONCE
AGAIN ELEVATE WINDS...WITH WINDS STEADILY INCREASING AFTER 16Z
SATURDAY...PEAK GUSTS UP TO 40KT WILL BE COMMON ACROSS THE AREA BY
LATE AFTERNOON CONTINUING INTO THE EVENING HOURS. PERIODS OF BLOWING
DUST REDUCING VISIBILITY DOWN TO 2SM WILL BE COMMON WITH THE
STRONGER WINDS...ESPECIALLY ACROSS IMPERIAL COUNTY AND NEAR YUMA.

AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDED TAFS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY... IN THE WAKE OF THE DEPARTING TROUGH...NEXT
WEEK WILL SEE THE ARRIVAL OF A STRONG UPPER RIDGE OVER THE
SOUTHWESTERN CONUS FROM MONDAY THROUGH MOST OF THE WEEK. AS A RESULT
OF THIS RIDGE...TEMPERATURES WILL INCREASE SUBSTANTIALLY AND
APPROACH THE TRIPLE DIGITS WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. AFTERNOON
HUMIDITIES WILL DROP INTO THE LOWER TEENS AND UPPER SINGLE DIGITS
WITH FAIR OVERNIGHT RECOVERIES EXPECTED. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND
SHOULD FOLLOW TYPICAL DIURNAL PATTERNS NEXT WEEK.

&&

.PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AZ...NONE.

CA...WIND ADVISORY FROM 1 PM TO 9 PM PDT SATURDAY FOR CAZ030>033.

&&

$$

VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/PHOENIX

DISCUSSION...MEYERS/AJ
AVIATION...MEYERS
FIRE WEATHER...LEINS



000
FXUS65 KTWC 250405
AFDTWC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ
905 PM MST FRI APR 24 2015

.SYNOPSIS...GUSTY WINDS WILL OCCUR SATURDAY FOLLOWED BY A GOOD
CHANCE OF SHOWERS SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY AS A VIGOROUS LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES ACROSS THE FOUR CORNERS REGION. COOLER
TEMPERATURES WILL ALSO OCCUR SUNDAY. A FEW LINGERING SHOWERS MAY
OCCUR ACROSS THE WHITE MOUNTAINS MONDAY. OTHERWISE...DRY CONDITIONS
WITH A STRONG WARMING TREND WILL PREVAIL MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...IR SATELLITE IMAGERY AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS INDICATE
CLEAR SKIES ACROSS WRN/CENTRAL PIMA COUNTY...AND A FEW TO PERHAPS
SCATTERED MID-LEVEL CLOUDS WERE ACROSS ERN SECTIONS. HAVE UPDATED
THE OFFICIAL FORECAST TO REMOVE THE EARLIER MENTION OF PRECIP ACROSS
THE WHITE MOUNTAINS. THUS...DRY CONDITIONS WITH LIGHT WINDS AND
CLEAR SKIES OR MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES THE REST OF TONIGHT.

GUSTY SOUTHWEST TO WEST WINDS WILL THEN OCCUR SATURDAY AHEAD OF A
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM THAT WILL STRENGTHEN ACROSS THE GREAT BASIN
REGION. BASED ON THE 25/00Z NAM/GFS MOS GUIDANCE...APPEARS THE
TIMING FOR THE BEST CHANCE OF RAINFALL FOR THE TUCSON METRO AREA
WILL BE LATE SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY.

PLEASE REFER TO THE ADDITIONAL SECTIONS FOR FURTHER DETAIL.

&&

.AVIATION...VALID THRU 26/06Z.
A FEW TO SCATTERED CLOUDS AROUND 6-10K FT AGL WILL PREVAIL THRU
SATURDAY AFTERNOON. THERE IS A CHANCE OF -SHRA MAINLY NORTH OF KTUS
SATURDAY EVENING. SURFACE WIND INTO EARLY SATURDAY MORNING WILL BE
GENERALLY LESS THAN 10 KTS. SURFACE WIND AROUND 16Z-19Z SATURDAY
WILL BE WLY/SWLY AT 12-22 KTS WITH GUSTS OF 25-35 KTS. THE STRONGEST
WIND SATURDAY AFTERNOON SHOULD OCCUR SOUTH-TO-SOUTHEAST OF KTUS...
ESPECIALLY IN THE VICINITY OF KALK AND KDUG. AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT
UPDATED FOR TAF AMENDMENTS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...GUSTY WEST AND SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL OCCUR SATURDAY
FOLLOWED BY A GOOD CHANCE OF SHOWERS SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY.
A FEW LINGERING SHOWERS MAY PREVAIL ACROSS THE WHITE MOUNTAINS
MONDAY. OTHERWISE...EXPECT DRY CONDITIONS WITH A PRONOUNCED WARMING
TREND MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...BRIEF DRY PERIOD SATURDAY BEFORE ANOTHER SYSTEM
IMPACTS THE AREA LATE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. THIS SYSTEM IS
STRONG AND COOLER THAN THE CURRENT ONE AND WILL BRING A VERY GOOD
CHANCE OF SHOWERS...POSSIBLY A FEW THUNDERSTORMS...TO MOST OF THE
FORECAST AREA. TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL VARY GREATLY WITH THE
HIGHEST AMOUNTS BETWEEN 0.50"-1" UP IN THE WHITES. SNOW LEVELS
LOWERING TO AROUND 7000-8000 FEET. SNOW AMOUNTS WILL BE TRICKY SINCE
THE GROUND IS RATHER WARM WITH MUCH FOR THE FIRST SNOWFALL MELTING.
CURRENTLY HAVE 2"-4" ABOVE 7000 FEET IN THE WHITES BY SUNDAY
AFTERNOON. BREEZY AND MUCH COOLER WITH THIS SYSTEM WITH HIGHS 8-15
DEGREES BELOW NORMAL ON SUNDAY.

SYSTEM EXISTS THE STATE LATE SUNDAY INTO EARLY MONDAY WITH HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM THE WEST. THIS HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL BE
AROUND MOST OF NEXT WEEK RESULTING IN A RAPID WARMUP MONDAY WITH
WARM LATE APRIL TEMPERATURES IN THE FORECAST. LINGERING MOISTURE
WILL CONTINUE OVER THE WHITES EARLY NEXT WEEK TO KEEP A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF AFTERNOON SHOWERS IN THIS AREA MONDAY AND TUESDAY.

&&

.TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...YOUTUBE...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/TUCSON

FRANCIS




000
FXUS65 KTWC 250405
AFDTWC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ
905 PM MST FRI APR 24 2015

.SYNOPSIS...GUSTY WINDS WILL OCCUR SATURDAY FOLLOWED BY A GOOD
CHANCE OF SHOWERS SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY AS A VIGOROUS LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES ACROSS THE FOUR CORNERS REGION. COOLER
TEMPERATURES WILL ALSO OCCUR SUNDAY. A FEW LINGERING SHOWERS MAY
OCCUR ACROSS THE WHITE MOUNTAINS MONDAY. OTHERWISE...DRY CONDITIONS
WITH A STRONG WARMING TREND WILL PREVAIL MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...IR SATELLITE IMAGERY AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS INDICATE
CLEAR SKIES ACROSS WRN/CENTRAL PIMA COUNTY...AND A FEW TO PERHAPS
SCATTERED MID-LEVEL CLOUDS WERE ACROSS ERN SECTIONS. HAVE UPDATED
THE OFFICIAL FORECAST TO REMOVE THE EARLIER MENTION OF PRECIP ACROSS
THE WHITE MOUNTAINS. THUS...DRY CONDITIONS WITH LIGHT WINDS AND
CLEAR SKIES OR MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES THE REST OF TONIGHT.

GUSTY SOUTHWEST TO WEST WINDS WILL THEN OCCUR SATURDAY AHEAD OF A
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM THAT WILL STRENGTHEN ACROSS THE GREAT BASIN
REGION. BASED ON THE 25/00Z NAM/GFS MOS GUIDANCE...APPEARS THE
TIMING FOR THE BEST CHANCE OF RAINFALL FOR THE TUCSON METRO AREA
WILL BE LATE SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY.

PLEASE REFER TO THE ADDITIONAL SECTIONS FOR FURTHER DETAIL.

&&

.AVIATION...VALID THRU 26/06Z.
A FEW TO SCATTERED CLOUDS AROUND 6-10K FT AGL WILL PREVAIL THRU
SATURDAY AFTERNOON. THERE IS A CHANCE OF -SHRA MAINLY NORTH OF KTUS
SATURDAY EVENING. SURFACE WIND INTO EARLY SATURDAY MORNING WILL BE
GENERALLY LESS THAN 10 KTS. SURFACE WIND AROUND 16Z-19Z SATURDAY
WILL BE WLY/SWLY AT 12-22 KTS WITH GUSTS OF 25-35 KTS. THE STRONGEST
WIND SATURDAY AFTERNOON SHOULD OCCUR SOUTH-TO-SOUTHEAST OF KTUS...
ESPECIALLY IN THE VICINITY OF KALK AND KDUG. AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT
UPDATED FOR TAF AMENDMENTS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...GUSTY WEST AND SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL OCCUR SATURDAY
FOLLOWED BY A GOOD CHANCE OF SHOWERS SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY.
A FEW LINGERING SHOWERS MAY PREVAIL ACROSS THE WHITE MOUNTAINS
MONDAY. OTHERWISE...EXPECT DRY CONDITIONS WITH A PRONOUNCED WARMING
TREND MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...BRIEF DRY PERIOD SATURDAY BEFORE ANOTHER SYSTEM
IMPACTS THE AREA LATE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. THIS SYSTEM IS
STRONG AND COOLER THAN THE CURRENT ONE AND WILL BRING A VERY GOOD
CHANCE OF SHOWERS...POSSIBLY A FEW THUNDERSTORMS...TO MOST OF THE
FORECAST AREA. TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL VARY GREATLY WITH THE
HIGHEST AMOUNTS BETWEEN 0.50"-1" UP IN THE WHITES. SNOW LEVELS
LOWERING TO AROUND 7000-8000 FEET. SNOW AMOUNTS WILL BE TRICKY SINCE
THE GROUND IS RATHER WARM WITH MUCH FOR THE FIRST SNOWFALL MELTING.
CURRENTLY HAVE 2"-4" ABOVE 7000 FEET IN THE WHITES BY SUNDAY
AFTERNOON. BREEZY AND MUCH COOLER WITH THIS SYSTEM WITH HIGHS 8-15
DEGREES BELOW NORMAL ON SUNDAY.

SYSTEM EXISTS THE STATE LATE SUNDAY INTO EARLY MONDAY WITH HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM THE WEST. THIS HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL BE
AROUND MOST OF NEXT WEEK RESULTING IN A RAPID WARMUP MONDAY WITH
WARM LATE APRIL TEMPERATURES IN THE FORECAST. LINGERING MOISTURE
WILL CONTINUE OVER THE WHITES EARLY NEXT WEEK TO KEEP A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF AFTERNOON SHOWERS IN THIS AREA MONDAY AND TUESDAY.

&&

.TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...YOUTUBE...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/TUCSON

FRANCIS



000
FXUS65 KFGZ 250317
AFDFGZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ
817 PM MST FRI APR 24 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE INTO THE STATE SATURDAY AND
SUNDAY BRINGING WINDY AND COLDER CONDITIONS...ALONG WITH RAIN AND
MOUNTAIN SNOW SHOWERS. LIGHT SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS ARE FORECAST
FOR AREAS NEAR AND ABOVE 7000 FEET. MUCH WARMER AND DRIER WEATHER
WILL ARRIVE NEXT WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY HAS WANED A BIT WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME
HEATING. DO NOT SEE ANY INDICATION FOR THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT. THEREFORE...REMOVED MENTION OF
THUNDER FROM THE FIRST PERIOD FORECAST. OTHERWISE...THE REMAINING
WEATHER ELEMENTS ARE IN GOOD SHAPE. THE UPDATED PRODUCTS HAVE BEEN
SENT.

&&

.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION /339 PM MST/...
AN INCREASE IN MOISTURE TODAY IN THE PRESENCE OF A DEPARTING WEAK
TROUGH RESULTED IN SCATTERED SHOWERS AND EVEN SOME THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY. EXPECT CONVECTION TO CONTINUE THROUGH EARLY EVENING
BEFORE DECREASING IN COVERAGE OVERNIGHT. RAINFALL AMOUNTS SHOULD
GENERALLY REMAIN LESS THAN A QUARTER OF A INCH. ITS POSSIBLE SOME
SNOW PELLETS OR ICE COULD MIX DOWN TO HIGHER ELEVATIONS ABOVE 7000
FEET.

A STRONGER AND COLDER STORM SYSTEM WILL BRING MORE WIDESPREAD RAIN
AND HIGH ELEVATION SNOW SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. THE OVERALL TRACK AND
TIMING HAVE REMAINED PRETTY CONSISTENT OVER THE PAST 24 HRS. LOOK
FOR INCREASING PRECIPITATION CHANCES LATE SATURDAY AFTERNOON FROM
PRESCOTT-FLAGSTAFF NORTHWEST...ESPECIALLY IN FAVORED UPSLOPE
LOCATIONS ON SOUTHWEST FACING SLOPES. THE BEST PERIOD FOR
ACCUMULATING PRECIP WILL BE SATURDAY EVENING AND OVERNIGHT WHEN
THE STRENGTHENING UPPER LEVEL LOW MOVES ACROSS ARIZONA. MOST AREAS
WILL BEGIN AS RAIN WITH HIGHER ELEVATIONS ABOVE 6500-7000 FEET
SEEING A SWITCH OVER TO SNOW BY EARLY SUNDAY MORNING WHEN THE
COLDEST AIR ARRIVES. ELEVATIONS GENERALLY 7000 FT AND ABOVE ARE
EXPECTED TO SEE ANYWHERE FROM A TRACE TO 2 INCHES OF SNOWFALL
DURING THE MORNING HOURS. INSTABILITY SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE MUCH
OF THE DAY SUNDAY WITH SNOW LEVELS RISING ABOVE 7000 FEET LIMITING
ANY ACCUMULATION TO ONLY THE HIGHEST MOUNTAIN PEAKS.

AFTER QUITE A COOL DOWN OVER THE WEEKEND...WARMER WEATHER QUICKLY
DEVELOPS NEXT WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE SOUTHWEST.
TEMPERATURES WILL WARM CLOSER TO NORMAL BY MONDAY AND UP TO 10
DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL BY THE MID TO LATTER PART OF NEXT WEEK. A LOW
CHANCE FOR SHOWERS WILL LINGER ALONG THE NEW MEXICO BORDER EARLY
IN THE WEEK WITH OTHERWISE MOSTLY DRY WEATHER.

&&

.AVIATION...
FOR THE 06Z PACKAGE...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE OVERNIGHT HOURS WITH CIG BASES 3-5 KFT. RAIN
SHOWER CHANCES WILL INCREASE OVER NORTHERN ARIZONA SATURDAY
AFTERNOON. MVFR/IFR CIGS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVER THE HIGHER
ELEVATION TERMINAL AERODROMES (KFLG-KGCN) SATURDAY AFTERNOON. SNOW
PELLETS WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS BY SATURDAY
EVENING. AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR TAF AMENDMENTS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
A STRONG AND COLD STORM SYSTEM WILL AFFECT THE DISTRICT SATURDAY
AND SUNDAY. EXPECT GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS SATURDAY WITH SHOWER
ACTIVITY INITIALLY OVER THE NORTHERN ZONES...THEN SPREADING SOUTH
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY WILL FEATURE
WIDESPREAD RAIN AND HIGH ELEVATION SNOWFALL. COLDER AIR AND A WIND
SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST WILL ACCOMPANY CONTINUING SHOWER ACTIVITY
INTO SUNDAY AFTERNOON.

MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...A WARMING TREND WILL DEVELOP DURING THIS
PERIOD. GUSTY NORTHEAST WINDS ON MONDAY WILL SLOW THE WARMING...BUT
SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL HAVE SHIFTED EAST OF THE STATE. LESS WIND AND A
SIGNIFICANT WARMING TREND WILL DEVELOP TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.

&&

.FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC.........BOHLIN
AVIATION.......BOHLIN

FOR NORTHERN ARIZONA WEATHER INFORMATION VISIT
WEATHER.GOV/FLAGSTAFF





000
FXUS65 KFGZ 250317
AFDFGZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ
817 PM MST FRI APR 24 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE INTO THE STATE SATURDAY AND
SUNDAY BRINGING WINDY AND COLDER CONDITIONS...ALONG WITH RAIN AND
MOUNTAIN SNOW SHOWERS. LIGHT SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS ARE FORECAST
FOR AREAS NEAR AND ABOVE 7000 FEET. MUCH WARMER AND DRIER WEATHER
WILL ARRIVE NEXT WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY HAS WANED A BIT WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME
HEATING. DO NOT SEE ANY INDICATION FOR THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT. THEREFORE...REMOVED MENTION OF
THUNDER FROM THE FIRST PERIOD FORECAST. OTHERWISE...THE REMAINING
WEATHER ELEMENTS ARE IN GOOD SHAPE. THE UPDATED PRODUCTS HAVE BEEN
SENT.

&&

.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION /339 PM MST/...
AN INCREASE IN MOISTURE TODAY IN THE PRESENCE OF A DEPARTING WEAK
TROUGH RESULTED IN SCATTERED SHOWERS AND EVEN SOME THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY. EXPECT CONVECTION TO CONTINUE THROUGH EARLY EVENING
BEFORE DECREASING IN COVERAGE OVERNIGHT. RAINFALL AMOUNTS SHOULD
GENERALLY REMAIN LESS THAN A QUARTER OF A INCH. ITS POSSIBLE SOME
SNOW PELLETS OR ICE COULD MIX DOWN TO HIGHER ELEVATIONS ABOVE 7000
FEET.

A STRONGER AND COLDER STORM SYSTEM WILL BRING MORE WIDESPREAD RAIN
AND HIGH ELEVATION SNOW SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. THE OVERALL TRACK AND
TIMING HAVE REMAINED PRETTY CONSISTENT OVER THE PAST 24 HRS. LOOK
FOR INCREASING PRECIPITATION CHANCES LATE SATURDAY AFTERNOON FROM
PRESCOTT-FLAGSTAFF NORTHWEST...ESPECIALLY IN FAVORED UPSLOPE
LOCATIONS ON SOUTHWEST FACING SLOPES. THE BEST PERIOD FOR
ACCUMULATING PRECIP WILL BE SATURDAY EVENING AND OVERNIGHT WHEN
THE STRENGTHENING UPPER LEVEL LOW MOVES ACROSS ARIZONA. MOST AREAS
WILL BEGIN AS RAIN WITH HIGHER ELEVATIONS ABOVE 6500-7000 FEET
SEEING A SWITCH OVER TO SNOW BY EARLY SUNDAY MORNING WHEN THE
COLDEST AIR ARRIVES. ELEVATIONS GENERALLY 7000 FT AND ABOVE ARE
EXPECTED TO SEE ANYWHERE FROM A TRACE TO 2 INCHES OF SNOWFALL
DURING THE MORNING HOURS. INSTABILITY SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE MUCH
OF THE DAY SUNDAY WITH SNOW LEVELS RISING ABOVE 7000 FEET LIMITING
ANY ACCUMULATION TO ONLY THE HIGHEST MOUNTAIN PEAKS.

AFTER QUITE A COOL DOWN OVER THE WEEKEND...WARMER WEATHER QUICKLY
DEVELOPS NEXT WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE SOUTHWEST.
TEMPERATURES WILL WARM CLOSER TO NORMAL BY MONDAY AND UP TO 10
DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL BY THE MID TO LATTER PART OF NEXT WEEK. A LOW
CHANCE FOR SHOWERS WILL LINGER ALONG THE NEW MEXICO BORDER EARLY
IN THE WEEK WITH OTHERWISE MOSTLY DRY WEATHER.

&&

.AVIATION...
FOR THE 06Z PACKAGE...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE OVERNIGHT HOURS WITH CIG BASES 3-5 KFT. RAIN
SHOWER CHANCES WILL INCREASE OVER NORTHERN ARIZONA SATURDAY
AFTERNOON. MVFR/IFR CIGS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVER THE HIGHER
ELEVATION TERMINAL AERODROMES (KFLG-KGCN) SATURDAY AFTERNOON. SNOW
PELLETS WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS BY SATURDAY
EVENING. AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR TAF AMENDMENTS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
A STRONG AND COLD STORM SYSTEM WILL AFFECT THE DISTRICT SATURDAY
AND SUNDAY. EXPECT GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS SATURDAY WITH SHOWER
ACTIVITY INITIALLY OVER THE NORTHERN ZONES...THEN SPREADING SOUTH
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY WILL FEATURE
WIDESPREAD RAIN AND HIGH ELEVATION SNOWFALL. COLDER AIR AND A WIND
SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST WILL ACCOMPANY CONTINUING SHOWER ACTIVITY
INTO SUNDAY AFTERNOON.

MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...A WARMING TREND WILL DEVELOP DURING THIS
PERIOD. GUSTY NORTHEAST WINDS ON MONDAY WILL SLOW THE WARMING...BUT
SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL HAVE SHIFTED EAST OF THE STATE. LESS WIND AND A
SIGNIFICANT WARMING TREND WILL DEVELOP TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.

&&

.FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC.........BOHLIN
AVIATION.......BOHLIN

FOR NORTHERN ARIZONA WEATHER INFORMATION VISIT
WEATHER.GOV/FLAGSTAFF





000
FXUS65 KFGZ 250317
AFDFGZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ
817 PM MST FRI APR 24 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE INTO THE STATE SATURDAY AND
SUNDAY BRINGING WINDY AND COLDER CONDITIONS...ALONG WITH RAIN AND
MOUNTAIN SNOW SHOWERS. LIGHT SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS ARE FORECAST
FOR AREAS NEAR AND ABOVE 7000 FEET. MUCH WARMER AND DRIER WEATHER
WILL ARRIVE NEXT WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY HAS WANED A BIT WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME
HEATING. DO NOT SEE ANY INDICATION FOR THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT. THEREFORE...REMOVED MENTION OF
THUNDER FROM THE FIRST PERIOD FORECAST. OTHERWISE...THE REMAINING
WEATHER ELEMENTS ARE IN GOOD SHAPE. THE UPDATED PRODUCTS HAVE BEEN
SENT.

&&

.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION /339 PM MST/...
AN INCREASE IN MOISTURE TODAY IN THE PRESENCE OF A DEPARTING WEAK
TROUGH RESULTED IN SCATTERED SHOWERS AND EVEN SOME THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY. EXPECT CONVECTION TO CONTINUE THROUGH EARLY EVENING
BEFORE DECREASING IN COVERAGE OVERNIGHT. RAINFALL AMOUNTS SHOULD
GENERALLY REMAIN LESS THAN A QUARTER OF A INCH. ITS POSSIBLE SOME
SNOW PELLETS OR ICE COULD MIX DOWN TO HIGHER ELEVATIONS ABOVE 7000
FEET.

A STRONGER AND COLDER STORM SYSTEM WILL BRING MORE WIDESPREAD RAIN
AND HIGH ELEVATION SNOW SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. THE OVERALL TRACK AND
TIMING HAVE REMAINED PRETTY CONSISTENT OVER THE PAST 24 HRS. LOOK
FOR INCREASING PRECIPITATION CHANCES LATE SATURDAY AFTERNOON FROM
PRESCOTT-FLAGSTAFF NORTHWEST...ESPECIALLY IN FAVORED UPSLOPE
LOCATIONS ON SOUTHWEST FACING SLOPES. THE BEST PERIOD FOR
ACCUMULATING PRECIP WILL BE SATURDAY EVENING AND OVERNIGHT WHEN
THE STRENGTHENING UPPER LEVEL LOW MOVES ACROSS ARIZONA. MOST AREAS
WILL BEGIN AS RAIN WITH HIGHER ELEVATIONS ABOVE 6500-7000 FEET
SEEING A SWITCH OVER TO SNOW BY EARLY SUNDAY MORNING WHEN THE
COLDEST AIR ARRIVES. ELEVATIONS GENERALLY 7000 FT AND ABOVE ARE
EXPECTED TO SEE ANYWHERE FROM A TRACE TO 2 INCHES OF SNOWFALL
DURING THE MORNING HOURS. INSTABILITY SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE MUCH
OF THE DAY SUNDAY WITH SNOW LEVELS RISING ABOVE 7000 FEET LIMITING
ANY ACCUMULATION TO ONLY THE HIGHEST MOUNTAIN PEAKS.

AFTER QUITE A COOL DOWN OVER THE WEEKEND...WARMER WEATHER QUICKLY
DEVELOPS NEXT WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE SOUTHWEST.
TEMPERATURES WILL WARM CLOSER TO NORMAL BY MONDAY AND UP TO 10
DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL BY THE MID TO LATTER PART OF NEXT WEEK. A LOW
CHANCE FOR SHOWERS WILL LINGER ALONG THE NEW MEXICO BORDER EARLY
IN THE WEEK WITH OTHERWISE MOSTLY DRY WEATHER.

&&

.AVIATION...
FOR THE 06Z PACKAGE...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE OVERNIGHT HOURS WITH CIG BASES 3-5 KFT. RAIN
SHOWER CHANCES WILL INCREASE OVER NORTHERN ARIZONA SATURDAY
AFTERNOON. MVFR/IFR CIGS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVER THE HIGHER
ELEVATION TERMINAL AERODROMES (KFLG-KGCN) SATURDAY AFTERNOON. SNOW
PELLETS WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS BY SATURDAY
EVENING. AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR TAF AMENDMENTS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
A STRONG AND COLD STORM SYSTEM WILL AFFECT THE DISTRICT SATURDAY
AND SUNDAY. EXPECT GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS SATURDAY WITH SHOWER
ACTIVITY INITIALLY OVER THE NORTHERN ZONES...THEN SPREADING SOUTH
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY WILL FEATURE
WIDESPREAD RAIN AND HIGH ELEVATION SNOWFALL. COLDER AIR AND A WIND
SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST WILL ACCOMPANY CONTINUING SHOWER ACTIVITY
INTO SUNDAY AFTERNOON.

MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...A WARMING TREND WILL DEVELOP DURING THIS
PERIOD. GUSTY NORTHEAST WINDS ON MONDAY WILL SLOW THE WARMING...BUT
SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL HAVE SHIFTED EAST OF THE STATE. LESS WIND AND A
SIGNIFICANT WARMING TREND WILL DEVELOP TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.

&&

.FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC.........BOHLIN
AVIATION.......BOHLIN

FOR NORTHERN ARIZONA WEATHER INFORMATION VISIT
WEATHER.GOV/FLAGSTAFF





000
FXUS65 KFGZ 250317
AFDFGZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ
817 PM MST FRI APR 24 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE INTO THE STATE SATURDAY AND
SUNDAY BRINGING WINDY AND COLDER CONDITIONS...ALONG WITH RAIN AND
MOUNTAIN SNOW SHOWERS. LIGHT SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS ARE FORECAST
FOR AREAS NEAR AND ABOVE 7000 FEET. MUCH WARMER AND DRIER WEATHER
WILL ARRIVE NEXT WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY HAS WANED A BIT WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME
HEATING. DO NOT SEE ANY INDICATION FOR THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT. THEREFORE...REMOVED MENTION OF
THUNDER FROM THE FIRST PERIOD FORECAST. OTHERWISE...THE REMAINING
WEATHER ELEMENTS ARE IN GOOD SHAPE. THE UPDATED PRODUCTS HAVE BEEN
SENT.

&&

.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION /339 PM MST/...
AN INCREASE IN MOISTURE TODAY IN THE PRESENCE OF A DEPARTING WEAK
TROUGH RESULTED IN SCATTERED SHOWERS AND EVEN SOME THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY. EXPECT CONVECTION TO CONTINUE THROUGH EARLY EVENING
BEFORE DECREASING IN COVERAGE OVERNIGHT. RAINFALL AMOUNTS SHOULD
GENERALLY REMAIN LESS THAN A QUARTER OF A INCH. ITS POSSIBLE SOME
SNOW PELLETS OR ICE COULD MIX DOWN TO HIGHER ELEVATIONS ABOVE 7000
FEET.

A STRONGER AND COLDER STORM SYSTEM WILL BRING MORE WIDESPREAD RAIN
AND HIGH ELEVATION SNOW SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. THE OVERALL TRACK AND
TIMING HAVE REMAINED PRETTY CONSISTENT OVER THE PAST 24 HRS. LOOK
FOR INCREASING PRECIPITATION CHANCES LATE SATURDAY AFTERNOON FROM
PRESCOTT-FLAGSTAFF NORTHWEST...ESPECIALLY IN FAVORED UPSLOPE
LOCATIONS ON SOUTHWEST FACING SLOPES. THE BEST PERIOD FOR
ACCUMULATING PRECIP WILL BE SATURDAY EVENING AND OVERNIGHT WHEN
THE STRENGTHENING UPPER LEVEL LOW MOVES ACROSS ARIZONA. MOST AREAS
WILL BEGIN AS RAIN WITH HIGHER ELEVATIONS ABOVE 6500-7000 FEET
SEEING A SWITCH OVER TO SNOW BY EARLY SUNDAY MORNING WHEN THE
COLDEST AIR ARRIVES. ELEVATIONS GENERALLY 7000 FT AND ABOVE ARE
EXPECTED TO SEE ANYWHERE FROM A TRACE TO 2 INCHES OF SNOWFALL
DURING THE MORNING HOURS. INSTABILITY SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE MUCH
OF THE DAY SUNDAY WITH SNOW LEVELS RISING ABOVE 7000 FEET LIMITING
ANY ACCUMULATION TO ONLY THE HIGHEST MOUNTAIN PEAKS.

AFTER QUITE A COOL DOWN OVER THE WEEKEND...WARMER WEATHER QUICKLY
DEVELOPS NEXT WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE SOUTHWEST.
TEMPERATURES WILL WARM CLOSER TO NORMAL BY MONDAY AND UP TO 10
DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL BY THE MID TO LATTER PART OF NEXT WEEK. A LOW
CHANCE FOR SHOWERS WILL LINGER ALONG THE NEW MEXICO BORDER EARLY
IN THE WEEK WITH OTHERWISE MOSTLY DRY WEATHER.

&&

.AVIATION...
FOR THE 06Z PACKAGE...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE OVERNIGHT HOURS WITH CIG BASES 3-5 KFT. RAIN
SHOWER CHANCES WILL INCREASE OVER NORTHERN ARIZONA SATURDAY
AFTERNOON. MVFR/IFR CIGS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVER THE HIGHER
ELEVATION TERMINAL AERODROMES (KFLG-KGCN) SATURDAY AFTERNOON. SNOW
PELLETS WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS BY SATURDAY
EVENING. AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR TAF AMENDMENTS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
A STRONG AND COLD STORM SYSTEM WILL AFFECT THE DISTRICT SATURDAY
AND SUNDAY. EXPECT GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS SATURDAY WITH SHOWER
ACTIVITY INITIALLY OVER THE NORTHERN ZONES...THEN SPREADING SOUTH
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY WILL FEATURE
WIDESPREAD RAIN AND HIGH ELEVATION SNOWFALL. COLDER AIR AND A WIND
SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST WILL ACCOMPANY CONTINUING SHOWER ACTIVITY
INTO SUNDAY AFTERNOON.

MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...A WARMING TREND WILL DEVELOP DURING THIS
PERIOD. GUSTY NORTHEAST WINDS ON MONDAY WILL SLOW THE WARMING...BUT
SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL HAVE SHIFTED EAST OF THE STATE. LESS WIND AND A
SIGNIFICANT WARMING TREND WILL DEVELOP TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.

&&

.FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC.........BOHLIN
AVIATION.......BOHLIN

FOR NORTHERN ARIZONA WEATHER INFORMATION VISIT
WEATHER.GOV/FLAGSTAFF





000
FXUS65 KFGZ 250317
AFDFGZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ
817 PM MST FRI APR 24 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE INTO THE STATE SATURDAY AND
SUNDAY BRINGING WINDY AND COLDER CONDITIONS...ALONG WITH RAIN AND
MOUNTAIN SNOW SHOWERS. LIGHT SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS ARE FORECAST
FOR AREAS NEAR AND ABOVE 7000 FEET. MUCH WARMER AND DRIER WEATHER
WILL ARRIVE NEXT WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY HAS WANED A BIT WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME
HEATING. DO NOT SEE ANY INDICATION FOR THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT. THEREFORE...REMOVED MENTION OF
THUNDER FROM THE FIRST PERIOD FORECAST. OTHERWISE...THE REMAINING
WEATHER ELEMENTS ARE IN GOOD SHAPE. THE UPDATED PRODUCTS HAVE BEEN
SENT.

&&

.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION /339 PM MST/...
AN INCREASE IN MOISTURE TODAY IN THE PRESENCE OF A DEPARTING WEAK
TROUGH RESULTED IN SCATTERED SHOWERS AND EVEN SOME THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY. EXPECT CONVECTION TO CONTINUE THROUGH EARLY EVENING
BEFORE DECREASING IN COVERAGE OVERNIGHT. RAINFALL AMOUNTS SHOULD
GENERALLY REMAIN LESS THAN A QUARTER OF A INCH. ITS POSSIBLE SOME
SNOW PELLETS OR ICE COULD MIX DOWN TO HIGHER ELEVATIONS ABOVE 7000
FEET.

A STRONGER AND COLDER STORM SYSTEM WILL BRING MORE WIDESPREAD RAIN
AND HIGH ELEVATION SNOW SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. THE OVERALL TRACK AND
TIMING HAVE REMAINED PRETTY CONSISTENT OVER THE PAST 24 HRS. LOOK
FOR INCREASING PRECIPITATION CHANCES LATE SATURDAY AFTERNOON FROM
PRESCOTT-FLAGSTAFF NORTHWEST...ESPECIALLY IN FAVORED UPSLOPE
LOCATIONS ON SOUTHWEST FACING SLOPES. THE BEST PERIOD FOR
ACCUMULATING PRECIP WILL BE SATURDAY EVENING AND OVERNIGHT WHEN
THE STRENGTHENING UPPER LEVEL LOW MOVES ACROSS ARIZONA. MOST AREAS
WILL BEGIN AS RAIN WITH HIGHER ELEVATIONS ABOVE 6500-7000 FEET
SEEING A SWITCH OVER TO SNOW BY EARLY SUNDAY MORNING WHEN THE
COLDEST AIR ARRIVES. ELEVATIONS GENERALLY 7000 FT AND ABOVE ARE
EXPECTED TO SEE ANYWHERE FROM A TRACE TO 2 INCHES OF SNOWFALL
DURING THE MORNING HOURS. INSTABILITY SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE MUCH
OF THE DAY SUNDAY WITH SNOW LEVELS RISING ABOVE 7000 FEET LIMITING
ANY ACCUMULATION TO ONLY THE HIGHEST MOUNTAIN PEAKS.

AFTER QUITE A COOL DOWN OVER THE WEEKEND...WARMER WEATHER QUICKLY
DEVELOPS NEXT WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE SOUTHWEST.
TEMPERATURES WILL WARM CLOSER TO NORMAL BY MONDAY AND UP TO 10
DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL BY THE MID TO LATTER PART OF NEXT WEEK. A LOW
CHANCE FOR SHOWERS WILL LINGER ALONG THE NEW MEXICO BORDER EARLY
IN THE WEEK WITH OTHERWISE MOSTLY DRY WEATHER.

&&

.AVIATION...
FOR THE 06Z PACKAGE...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE OVERNIGHT HOURS WITH CIG BASES 3-5 KFT. RAIN
SHOWER CHANCES WILL INCREASE OVER NORTHERN ARIZONA SATURDAY
AFTERNOON. MVFR/IFR CIGS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVER THE HIGHER
ELEVATION TERMINAL AERODROMES (KFLG-KGCN) SATURDAY AFTERNOON. SNOW
PELLETS WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS BY SATURDAY
EVENING. AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR TAF AMENDMENTS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
A STRONG AND COLD STORM SYSTEM WILL AFFECT THE DISTRICT SATURDAY
AND SUNDAY. EXPECT GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS SATURDAY WITH SHOWER
ACTIVITY INITIALLY OVER THE NORTHERN ZONES...THEN SPREADING SOUTH
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY WILL FEATURE
WIDESPREAD RAIN AND HIGH ELEVATION SNOWFALL. COLDER AIR AND A WIND
SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST WILL ACCOMPANY CONTINUING SHOWER ACTIVITY
INTO SUNDAY AFTERNOON.

MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...A WARMING TREND WILL DEVELOP DURING THIS
PERIOD. GUSTY NORTHEAST WINDS ON MONDAY WILL SLOW THE WARMING...BUT
SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL HAVE SHIFTED EAST OF THE STATE. LESS WIND AND A
SIGNIFICANT WARMING TREND WILL DEVELOP TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.

&&

.FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC.........BOHLIN
AVIATION.......BOHLIN

FOR NORTHERN ARIZONA WEATHER INFORMATION VISIT
WEATHER.GOV/FLAGSTAFF






000
FXUS65 KFGZ 250317
AFDFGZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ
817 PM MST FRI APR 24 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE INTO THE STATE SATURDAY AND
SUNDAY BRINGING WINDY AND COLDER CONDITIONS...ALONG WITH RAIN AND
MOUNTAIN SNOW SHOWERS. LIGHT SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS ARE FORECAST
FOR AREAS NEAR AND ABOVE 7000 FEET. MUCH WARMER AND DRIER WEATHER
WILL ARRIVE NEXT WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY HAS WANED A BIT WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME
HEATING. DO NOT SEE ANY INDICATION FOR THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT. THEREFORE...REMOVED MENTION OF
THUNDER FROM THE FIRST PERIOD FORECAST. OTHERWISE...THE REMAINING
WEATHER ELEMENTS ARE IN GOOD SHAPE. THE UPDATED PRODUCTS HAVE BEEN
SENT.

&&

.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION /339 PM MST/...
AN INCREASE IN MOISTURE TODAY IN THE PRESENCE OF A DEPARTING WEAK
TROUGH RESULTED IN SCATTERED SHOWERS AND EVEN SOME THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY. EXPECT CONVECTION TO CONTINUE THROUGH EARLY EVENING
BEFORE DECREASING IN COVERAGE OVERNIGHT. RAINFALL AMOUNTS SHOULD
GENERALLY REMAIN LESS THAN A QUARTER OF A INCH. ITS POSSIBLE SOME
SNOW PELLETS OR ICE COULD MIX DOWN TO HIGHER ELEVATIONS ABOVE 7000
FEET.

A STRONGER AND COLDER STORM SYSTEM WILL BRING MORE WIDESPREAD RAIN
AND HIGH ELEVATION SNOW SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. THE OVERALL TRACK AND
TIMING HAVE REMAINED PRETTY CONSISTENT OVER THE PAST 24 HRS. LOOK
FOR INCREASING PRECIPITATION CHANCES LATE SATURDAY AFTERNOON FROM
PRESCOTT-FLAGSTAFF NORTHWEST...ESPECIALLY IN FAVORED UPSLOPE
LOCATIONS ON SOUTHWEST FACING SLOPES. THE BEST PERIOD FOR
ACCUMULATING PRECIP WILL BE SATURDAY EVENING AND OVERNIGHT WHEN
THE STRENGTHENING UPPER LEVEL LOW MOVES ACROSS ARIZONA. MOST AREAS
WILL BEGIN AS RAIN WITH HIGHER ELEVATIONS ABOVE 6500-7000 FEET
SEEING A SWITCH OVER TO SNOW BY EARLY SUNDAY MORNING WHEN THE
COLDEST AIR ARRIVES. ELEVATIONS GENERALLY 7000 FT AND ABOVE ARE
EXPECTED TO SEE ANYWHERE FROM A TRACE TO 2 INCHES OF SNOWFALL
DURING THE MORNING HOURS. INSTABILITY SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE MUCH
OF THE DAY SUNDAY WITH SNOW LEVELS RISING ABOVE 7000 FEET LIMITING
ANY ACCUMULATION TO ONLY THE HIGHEST MOUNTAIN PEAKS.

AFTER QUITE A COOL DOWN OVER THE WEEKEND...WARMER WEATHER QUICKLY
DEVELOPS NEXT WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE SOUTHWEST.
TEMPERATURES WILL WARM CLOSER TO NORMAL BY MONDAY AND UP TO 10
DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL BY THE MID TO LATTER PART OF NEXT WEEK. A LOW
CHANCE FOR SHOWERS WILL LINGER ALONG THE NEW MEXICO BORDER EARLY
IN THE WEEK WITH OTHERWISE MOSTLY DRY WEATHER.

&&

.AVIATION...
FOR THE 06Z PACKAGE...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE OVERNIGHT HOURS WITH CIG BASES 3-5 KFT. RAIN
SHOWER CHANCES WILL INCREASE OVER NORTHERN ARIZONA SATURDAY
AFTERNOON. MVFR/IFR CIGS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVER THE HIGHER
ELEVATION TERMINAL AERODROMES (KFLG-KGCN) SATURDAY AFTERNOON. SNOW
PELLETS WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS BY SATURDAY
EVENING. AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR TAF AMENDMENTS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
A STRONG AND COLD STORM SYSTEM WILL AFFECT THE DISTRICT SATURDAY
AND SUNDAY. EXPECT GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS SATURDAY WITH SHOWER
ACTIVITY INITIALLY OVER THE NORTHERN ZONES...THEN SPREADING SOUTH
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY WILL FEATURE
WIDESPREAD RAIN AND HIGH ELEVATION SNOWFALL. COLDER AIR AND A WIND
SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST WILL ACCOMPANY CONTINUING SHOWER ACTIVITY
INTO SUNDAY AFTERNOON.

MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...A WARMING TREND WILL DEVELOP DURING THIS
PERIOD. GUSTY NORTHEAST WINDS ON MONDAY WILL SLOW THE WARMING...BUT
SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL HAVE SHIFTED EAST OF THE STATE. LESS WIND AND A
SIGNIFICANT WARMING TREND WILL DEVELOP TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.

&&

.FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC.........BOHLIN
AVIATION.......BOHLIN

FOR NORTHERN ARIZONA WEATHER INFORMATION VISIT
WEATHER.GOV/FLAGSTAFF





000
FXUS65 KPSR 242302
AFDPSR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PHOENIX AZ
400 PM MST FRI APR 24 2015


.SYNOPSIS... THERE WILL BE A LINGERING SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS OVER
PORTIONS OF SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA TONIGHT...MAINLY OVER THE HIGHER
TERRAIN. ANOTHER WEATHER SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH SATURDAY AFTERNOON
THROUGH SUNDAY FOR AN EVEN BETTER CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS...MAINLY EAST OF THE LOWER COLORADO RIVER VALLEY.
BREEZY TO WINDY CONDITIONS DEVELOP SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND CONTINUE
INTO MONDAY...ESPECIALLY OVER SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA. DRY AND MUCH
WARMER WEATHER IS EXPECTED NEXT WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

REST OF TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY...SHOWER ACTIVITY HAS TRENDED DOWNWARD
WITH THE UPPER TROUGH SHIFTING EASTWARD TAKING THE FAVORABLE PRECIP
CONDITIONS WITH IT. HOWEVER...THERE IS STILL A LOW END SLIGHT CHANCE
FOR MINOR SHOWER DEVELOPMENT OVER SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA BEFORE
SUNSET. BOTH NAM AND GFS INDICATE A MINOR TRAILING SHORT WAVE
TONIGHT WILL KEEP ISOLATED SHOWERS GOING OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN
NORTH AND EAST OF PHOENIX. WITH THE LARGE SYSTEM CURRENTLY AFFECTING
NORTHERN CALIFORNIA AND THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST...IT IS QUITE
CONCEIVABLE THAT A PERTURBATION ON THE PERIPHERY OF THAT SYSTEM
WOULD INTERACT WITH LEFTOVER MOISTURE. THUS HELD ON TO SLIGHT
CHANCES TONIGHT OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA.
THAT PACIFIC NORTHWEST SYSTEM DIGS SOUTHEASTWARD AND BEGINS ENTERING
OUR FORECAST AREA SATURDAY AFTERNOON. DYNAMICAL FORCING SEEN IN DIV
Q AND UPPER DIVERGENCE FIELDS AFFECTS OUR AREA PRIMARILY BETWEEN 18Z
SAT AND 12Z SUNDAY. THE DEEPER MOISTURE LAGS THAT BY AT LEAST A FEW
HOURS. THERMAL CONTRAST ASSOCIATED WITH FRONTAL BAND NOT LOOKING
OVERLY IMPRESSIVE NOR DOES THE CAPE. HOWEVER...MODEL SOUNDINGS
INDICATE AT LEAST A LITTLE BIT OF INSTABILITY TO BE HAD THUS THERE
IS ALSO A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS. BEST CHANCES FOR PRECIP IN OUR
FORECAST AREA WILL BE OVER OUR ARIZONA ZONES AND ESPECIALLY OVER
SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA. FOR OUTDOOR INTERESTS THIS WEEKEND...LOOKS
LIKE MUCH OF THE DAYLIGHT HOURS SATURDAY WILL BE DRY...LESS SO
SUNDAY. WITH THE APPROACH OF THE SYSTEM...WINDY CONDITIONS DEVELOP
OVER SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA AND PORTIONS OF SOUTHWEST ARIZONA SATURDAY
AFTERNOON CONTINUING INTO THE EVENING...NOT AS MUCH WIND FOR SOUTH-
CENTRAL ARIZONA. WINDS WILL BE STRONGEST OVER SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA
AND THE WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE
NICELY BELOW NORMAL.

MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY... DRY NORTHERLY FLOW WILL DEVELOP MONDAY AND
TUESDAY FOLLOWED BY A BUILDING RIDGE OVER THE REGION WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY. MUCH WARMER TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST WEDNESDAY WITH NEAR
100 DEGREE HEAT ON THE WARMEST DESERTS.

&&

.AVIATION...

SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA INCLUDING KPHX...KIWA...AND KSDL...
SCATTERED SHOWERS CONTINUE ACROSS THE AREA THIS MORNING AND WILL
PERSIST INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS. KIWA/KSDL THE MOST LIKELY TO
SEE SHOWERS AT THE AIRFIELD WHILE KPHX MAY ONLY SEE VCSH BASED ON
RADAR TRENDS. WIDESPREAD CIGS AROUND 6KFT WILL BE COMMON THROUGH LATE
AFTERNOON. OTHERWISE EXPECT CONDITIONS TO IMPROVE LATE THIS
AFTERNOON/EVENING.

SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA AND SOUTHWEST ARIZONA INCLUDING KIPL AND KBLH...
FEW-SCT HIGH CLOUDS FROM FRIDAY MORNING ONWARD. PASSING UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH WILL CONTINUE ELEVATED WINDS...WITH GUSTS INTO TO 20KT RANGE
PSBL THROUGHOUT THE DAY. STRONGER WINDS IN THE FORECAST FOR
SATURDAY...WITH GUSTS PUSHING 35KTS PARTICULARLY ACROSS IMPERIAL
COUNTY AND KIPL.


AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDED TAFS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY... IN THE WAKE OF THE DEPARTING TROUGH...NEXT
WEEK WILL SEE THE ARRIVAL OF A STRONG UPPER RIDGE OVER THE
SOUTHWESTERN CONUS FROM MONDAY THROUGH MOST OF THE WEEK. AS A RESULT
OF THIS RIDGE...TEMPERATURES WILL INCREASE SUBSTANTIALLY AND
APPROACH THE TRIPLE DIGITS WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. AFTERNOON
HUMIDITIES WILL DROP INTO THE LOWER TEENS AND UPPER SINGLE DIGITS
WITH FAIR OVERNIGHT RECOVERIES EXPECTED. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND
SHOULD FOLLOW TYPICAL DIURNAL PATTERNS NEXT WEEK.

&&

.PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AZ...NONE.

CA...WIND ADVISORY FROM 1 PM TO 9 PM PDT SATURDAY FOR CAZ030>033.

&&

$$

VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/PHOENIX

DISCUSSION...AJ/VASQUEZ
AVIATION...LEINS
FIRE WEATHER...LEINS




000
FXUS65 KPSR 242302
AFDPSR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PHOENIX AZ
400 PM MST FRI APR 24 2015


.SYNOPSIS... THERE WILL BE A LINGERING SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS OVER
PORTIONS OF SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA TONIGHT...MAINLY OVER THE HIGHER
TERRAIN. ANOTHER WEATHER SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH SATURDAY AFTERNOON
THROUGH SUNDAY FOR AN EVEN BETTER CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS...MAINLY EAST OF THE LOWER COLORADO RIVER VALLEY.
BREEZY TO WINDY CONDITIONS DEVELOP SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND CONTINUE
INTO MONDAY...ESPECIALLY OVER SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA. DRY AND MUCH
WARMER WEATHER IS EXPECTED NEXT WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

REST OF TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY...SHOWER ACTIVITY HAS TRENDED DOWNWARD
WITH THE UPPER TROUGH SHIFTING EASTWARD TAKING THE FAVORABLE PRECIP
CONDITIONS WITH IT. HOWEVER...THERE IS STILL A LOW END SLIGHT CHANCE
FOR MINOR SHOWER DEVELOPMENT OVER SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA BEFORE
SUNSET. BOTH NAM AND GFS INDICATE A MINOR TRAILING SHORT WAVE
TONIGHT WILL KEEP ISOLATED SHOWERS GOING OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN
NORTH AND EAST OF PHOENIX. WITH THE LARGE SYSTEM CURRENTLY AFFECTING
NORTHERN CALIFORNIA AND THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST...IT IS QUITE
CONCEIVABLE THAT A PERTURBATION ON THE PERIPHERY OF THAT SYSTEM
WOULD INTERACT WITH LEFTOVER MOISTURE. THUS HELD ON TO SLIGHT
CHANCES TONIGHT OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA.
THAT PACIFIC NORTHWEST SYSTEM DIGS SOUTHEASTWARD AND BEGINS ENTERING
OUR FORECAST AREA SATURDAY AFTERNOON. DYNAMICAL FORCING SEEN IN DIV
Q AND UPPER DIVERGENCE FIELDS AFFECTS OUR AREA PRIMARILY BETWEEN 18Z
SAT AND 12Z SUNDAY. THE DEEPER MOISTURE LAGS THAT BY AT LEAST A FEW
HOURS. THERMAL CONTRAST ASSOCIATED WITH FRONTAL BAND NOT LOOKING
OVERLY IMPRESSIVE NOR DOES THE CAPE. HOWEVER...MODEL SOUNDINGS
INDICATE AT LEAST A LITTLE BIT OF INSTABILITY TO BE HAD THUS THERE
IS ALSO A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS. BEST CHANCES FOR PRECIP IN OUR
FORECAST AREA WILL BE OVER OUR ARIZONA ZONES AND ESPECIALLY OVER
SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA. FOR OUTDOOR INTERESTS THIS WEEKEND...LOOKS
LIKE MUCH OF THE DAYLIGHT HOURS SATURDAY WILL BE DRY...LESS SO
SUNDAY. WITH THE APPROACH OF THE SYSTEM...WINDY CONDITIONS DEVELOP
OVER SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA AND PORTIONS OF SOUTHWEST ARIZONA SATURDAY
AFTERNOON CONTINUING INTO THE EVENING...NOT AS MUCH WIND FOR SOUTH-
CENTRAL ARIZONA. WINDS WILL BE STRONGEST OVER SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA
AND THE WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE
NICELY BELOW NORMAL.

MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY... DRY NORTHERLY FLOW WILL DEVELOP MONDAY AND
TUESDAY FOLLOWED BY A BUILDING RIDGE OVER THE REGION WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY. MUCH WARMER TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST WEDNESDAY WITH NEAR
100 DEGREE HEAT ON THE WARMEST DESERTS.

&&

.AVIATION...

SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA INCLUDING KPHX...KIWA...AND KSDL...
SCATTERED SHOWERS CONTINUE ACROSS THE AREA THIS MORNING AND WILL
PERSIST INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS. KIWA/KSDL THE MOST LIKELY TO
SEE SHOWERS AT THE AIRFIELD WHILE KPHX MAY ONLY SEE VCSH BASED ON
RADAR TRENDS. WIDESPREAD CIGS AROUND 6KFT WILL BE COMMON THROUGH LATE
AFTERNOON. OTHERWISE EXPECT CONDITIONS TO IMPROVE LATE THIS
AFTERNOON/EVENING.

SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA AND SOUTHWEST ARIZONA INCLUDING KIPL AND KBLH...
FEW-SCT HIGH CLOUDS FROM FRIDAY MORNING ONWARD. PASSING UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH WILL CONTINUE ELEVATED WINDS...WITH GUSTS INTO TO 20KT RANGE
PSBL THROUGHOUT THE DAY. STRONGER WINDS IN THE FORECAST FOR
SATURDAY...WITH GUSTS PUSHING 35KTS PARTICULARLY ACROSS IMPERIAL
COUNTY AND KIPL.


AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDED TAFS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY... IN THE WAKE OF THE DEPARTING TROUGH...NEXT
WEEK WILL SEE THE ARRIVAL OF A STRONG UPPER RIDGE OVER THE
SOUTHWESTERN CONUS FROM MONDAY THROUGH MOST OF THE WEEK. AS A RESULT
OF THIS RIDGE...TEMPERATURES WILL INCREASE SUBSTANTIALLY AND
APPROACH THE TRIPLE DIGITS WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. AFTERNOON
HUMIDITIES WILL DROP INTO THE LOWER TEENS AND UPPER SINGLE DIGITS
WITH FAIR OVERNIGHT RECOVERIES EXPECTED. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND
SHOULD FOLLOW TYPICAL DIURNAL PATTERNS NEXT WEEK.

&&

.PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AZ...NONE.

CA...WIND ADVISORY FROM 1 PM TO 9 PM PDT SATURDAY FOR CAZ030>033.

&&

$$

VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/PHOENIX

DISCUSSION...AJ/VASQUEZ
AVIATION...LEINS
FIRE WEATHER...LEINS



000
FXUS65 KPSR 242302
AFDPSR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PHOENIX AZ
400 PM MST FRI APR 24 2015


.SYNOPSIS... THERE WILL BE A LINGERING SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS OVER
PORTIONS OF SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA TONIGHT...MAINLY OVER THE HIGHER
TERRAIN. ANOTHER WEATHER SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH SATURDAY AFTERNOON
THROUGH SUNDAY FOR AN EVEN BETTER CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS...MAINLY EAST OF THE LOWER COLORADO RIVER VALLEY.
BREEZY TO WINDY CONDITIONS DEVELOP SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND CONTINUE
INTO MONDAY...ESPECIALLY OVER SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA. DRY AND MUCH
WARMER WEATHER IS EXPECTED NEXT WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

REST OF TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY...SHOWER ACTIVITY HAS TRENDED DOWNWARD
WITH THE UPPER TROUGH SHIFTING EASTWARD TAKING THE FAVORABLE PRECIP
CONDITIONS WITH IT. HOWEVER...THERE IS STILL A LOW END SLIGHT CHANCE
FOR MINOR SHOWER DEVELOPMENT OVER SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA BEFORE
SUNSET. BOTH NAM AND GFS INDICATE A MINOR TRAILING SHORT WAVE
TONIGHT WILL KEEP ISOLATED SHOWERS GOING OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN
NORTH AND EAST OF PHOENIX. WITH THE LARGE SYSTEM CURRENTLY AFFECTING
NORTHERN CALIFORNIA AND THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST...IT IS QUITE
CONCEIVABLE THAT A PERTURBATION ON THE PERIPHERY OF THAT SYSTEM
WOULD INTERACT WITH LEFTOVER MOISTURE. THUS HELD ON TO SLIGHT
CHANCES TONIGHT OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA.
THAT PACIFIC NORTHWEST SYSTEM DIGS SOUTHEASTWARD AND BEGINS ENTERING
OUR FORECAST AREA SATURDAY AFTERNOON. DYNAMICAL FORCING SEEN IN DIV
Q AND UPPER DIVERGENCE FIELDS AFFECTS OUR AREA PRIMARILY BETWEEN 18Z
SAT AND 12Z SUNDAY. THE DEEPER MOISTURE LAGS THAT BY AT LEAST A FEW
HOURS. THERMAL CONTRAST ASSOCIATED WITH FRONTAL BAND NOT LOOKING
OVERLY IMPRESSIVE NOR DOES THE CAPE. HOWEVER...MODEL SOUNDINGS
INDICATE AT LEAST A LITTLE BIT OF INSTABILITY TO BE HAD THUS THERE
IS ALSO A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS. BEST CHANCES FOR PRECIP IN OUR
FORECAST AREA WILL BE OVER OUR ARIZONA ZONES AND ESPECIALLY OVER
SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA. FOR OUTDOOR INTERESTS THIS WEEKEND...LOOKS
LIKE MUCH OF THE DAYLIGHT HOURS SATURDAY WILL BE DRY...LESS SO
SUNDAY. WITH THE APPROACH OF THE SYSTEM...WINDY CONDITIONS DEVELOP
OVER SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA AND PORTIONS OF SOUTHWEST ARIZONA SATURDAY
AFTERNOON CONTINUING INTO THE EVENING...NOT AS MUCH WIND FOR SOUTH-
CENTRAL ARIZONA. WINDS WILL BE STRONGEST OVER SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA
AND THE WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE
NICELY BELOW NORMAL.

MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY... DRY NORTHERLY FLOW WILL DEVELOP MONDAY AND
TUESDAY FOLLOWED BY A BUILDING RIDGE OVER THE REGION WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY. MUCH WARMER TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST WEDNESDAY WITH NEAR
100 DEGREE HEAT ON THE WARMEST DESERTS.

&&

.AVIATION...

SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA INCLUDING KPHX...KIWA...AND KSDL...
SCATTERED SHOWERS CONTINUE ACROSS THE AREA THIS MORNING AND WILL
PERSIST INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS. KIWA/KSDL THE MOST LIKELY TO
SEE SHOWERS AT THE AIRFIELD WHILE KPHX MAY ONLY SEE VCSH BASED ON
RADAR TRENDS. WIDESPREAD CIGS AROUND 6KFT WILL BE COMMON THROUGH LATE
AFTERNOON. OTHERWISE EXPECT CONDITIONS TO IMPROVE LATE THIS
AFTERNOON/EVENING.

SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA AND SOUTHWEST ARIZONA INCLUDING KIPL AND KBLH...
FEW-SCT HIGH CLOUDS FROM FRIDAY MORNING ONWARD. PASSING UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH WILL CONTINUE ELEVATED WINDS...WITH GUSTS INTO TO 20KT RANGE
PSBL THROUGHOUT THE DAY. STRONGER WINDS IN THE FORECAST FOR
SATURDAY...WITH GUSTS PUSHING 35KTS PARTICULARLY ACROSS IMPERIAL
COUNTY AND KIPL.


AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDED TAFS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY... IN THE WAKE OF THE DEPARTING TROUGH...NEXT
WEEK WILL SEE THE ARRIVAL OF A STRONG UPPER RIDGE OVER THE
SOUTHWESTERN CONUS FROM MONDAY THROUGH MOST OF THE WEEK. AS A RESULT
OF THIS RIDGE...TEMPERATURES WILL INCREASE SUBSTANTIALLY AND
APPROACH THE TRIPLE DIGITS WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. AFTERNOON
HUMIDITIES WILL DROP INTO THE LOWER TEENS AND UPPER SINGLE DIGITS
WITH FAIR OVERNIGHT RECOVERIES EXPECTED. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND
SHOULD FOLLOW TYPICAL DIURNAL PATTERNS NEXT WEEK.

&&

.PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AZ...NONE.

CA...WIND ADVISORY FROM 1 PM TO 9 PM PDT SATURDAY FOR CAZ030>033.

&&

$$

VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/PHOENIX

DISCUSSION...AJ/VASQUEZ
AVIATION...LEINS
FIRE WEATHER...LEINS




000
FXUS65 KPSR 242302
AFDPSR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PHOENIX AZ
400 PM MST FRI APR 24 2015


.SYNOPSIS... THERE WILL BE A LINGERING SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS OVER
PORTIONS OF SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA TONIGHT...MAINLY OVER THE HIGHER
TERRAIN. ANOTHER WEATHER SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH SATURDAY AFTERNOON
THROUGH SUNDAY FOR AN EVEN BETTER CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS...MAINLY EAST OF THE LOWER COLORADO RIVER VALLEY.
BREEZY TO WINDY CONDITIONS DEVELOP SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND CONTINUE
INTO MONDAY...ESPECIALLY OVER SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA. DRY AND MUCH
WARMER WEATHER IS EXPECTED NEXT WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

REST OF TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY...SHOWER ACTIVITY HAS TRENDED DOWNWARD
WITH THE UPPER TROUGH SHIFTING EASTWARD TAKING THE FAVORABLE PRECIP
CONDITIONS WITH IT. HOWEVER...THERE IS STILL A LOW END SLIGHT CHANCE
FOR MINOR SHOWER DEVELOPMENT OVER SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA BEFORE
SUNSET. BOTH NAM AND GFS INDICATE A MINOR TRAILING SHORT WAVE
TONIGHT WILL KEEP ISOLATED SHOWERS GOING OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN
NORTH AND EAST OF PHOENIX. WITH THE LARGE SYSTEM CURRENTLY AFFECTING
NORTHERN CALIFORNIA AND THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST...IT IS QUITE
CONCEIVABLE THAT A PERTURBATION ON THE PERIPHERY OF THAT SYSTEM
WOULD INTERACT WITH LEFTOVER MOISTURE. THUS HELD ON TO SLIGHT
CHANCES TONIGHT OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA.
THAT PACIFIC NORTHWEST SYSTEM DIGS SOUTHEASTWARD AND BEGINS ENTERING
OUR FORECAST AREA SATURDAY AFTERNOON. DYNAMICAL FORCING SEEN IN DIV
Q AND UPPER DIVERGENCE FIELDS AFFECTS OUR AREA PRIMARILY BETWEEN 18Z
SAT AND 12Z SUNDAY. THE DEEPER MOISTURE LAGS THAT BY AT LEAST A FEW
HOURS. THERMAL CONTRAST ASSOCIATED WITH FRONTAL BAND NOT LOOKING
OVERLY IMPRESSIVE NOR DOES THE CAPE. HOWEVER...MODEL SOUNDINGS
INDICATE AT LEAST A LITTLE BIT OF INSTABILITY TO BE HAD THUS THERE
IS ALSO A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS. BEST CHANCES FOR PRECIP IN OUR
FORECAST AREA WILL BE OVER OUR ARIZONA ZONES AND ESPECIALLY OVER
SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA. FOR OUTDOOR INTERESTS THIS WEEKEND...LOOKS
LIKE MUCH OF THE DAYLIGHT HOURS SATURDAY WILL BE DRY...LESS SO
SUNDAY. WITH THE APPROACH OF THE SYSTEM...WINDY CONDITIONS DEVELOP
OVER SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA AND PORTIONS OF SOUTHWEST ARIZONA SATURDAY
AFTERNOON CONTINUING INTO THE EVENING...NOT AS MUCH WIND FOR SOUTH-
CENTRAL ARIZONA. WINDS WILL BE STRONGEST OVER SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA
AND THE WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE
NICELY BELOW NORMAL.

MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY... DRY NORTHERLY FLOW WILL DEVELOP MONDAY AND
TUESDAY FOLLOWED BY A BUILDING RIDGE OVER THE REGION WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY. MUCH WARMER TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST WEDNESDAY WITH NEAR
100 DEGREE HEAT ON THE WARMEST DESERTS.

&&

.AVIATION...

SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA INCLUDING KPHX...KIWA...AND KSDL...
SCATTERED SHOWERS CONTINUE ACROSS THE AREA THIS MORNING AND WILL
PERSIST INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS. KIWA/KSDL THE MOST LIKELY TO
SEE SHOWERS AT THE AIRFIELD WHILE KPHX MAY ONLY SEE VCSH BASED ON
RADAR TRENDS. WIDESPREAD CIGS AROUND 6KFT WILL BE COMMON THROUGH LATE
AFTERNOON. OTHERWISE EXPECT CONDITIONS TO IMPROVE LATE THIS
AFTERNOON/EVENING.

SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA AND SOUTHWEST ARIZONA INCLUDING KIPL AND KBLH...
FEW-SCT HIGH CLOUDS FROM FRIDAY MORNING ONWARD. PASSING UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH WILL CONTINUE ELEVATED WINDS...WITH GUSTS INTO TO 20KT RANGE
PSBL THROUGHOUT THE DAY. STRONGER WINDS IN THE FORECAST FOR
SATURDAY...WITH GUSTS PUSHING 35KTS PARTICULARLY ACROSS IMPERIAL
COUNTY AND KIPL.


AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDED TAFS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY... IN THE WAKE OF THE DEPARTING TROUGH...NEXT
WEEK WILL SEE THE ARRIVAL OF A STRONG UPPER RIDGE OVER THE
SOUTHWESTERN CONUS FROM MONDAY THROUGH MOST OF THE WEEK. AS A RESULT
OF THIS RIDGE...TEMPERATURES WILL INCREASE SUBSTANTIALLY AND
APPROACH THE TRIPLE DIGITS WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. AFTERNOON
HUMIDITIES WILL DROP INTO THE LOWER TEENS AND UPPER SINGLE DIGITS
WITH FAIR OVERNIGHT RECOVERIES EXPECTED. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND
SHOULD FOLLOW TYPICAL DIURNAL PATTERNS NEXT WEEK.

&&

.PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AZ...NONE.

CA...WIND ADVISORY FROM 1 PM TO 9 PM PDT SATURDAY FOR CAZ030>033.

&&

$$

VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/PHOENIX

DISCUSSION...AJ/VASQUEZ
AVIATION...LEINS
FIRE WEATHER...LEINS



000
FXUS65 KFGZ 242239
AFDFGZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ
339 PM MST FRI APR 24 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TODAY AS
A WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM SLOWLY EXITS THE STATE. A STRONGER
SYSTEM WILL MOVE INTO THE STATE SATURDAY AND SUNDAY BRINGING
WINDY AND COLDER CONDITIONS...ALONG WITH RAIN AND MOUNTAIN SNOW
SHOWERS. LIGHT SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS ARE FORECAST FOR AREAS NEAR
AND ABOVE 7000 FEET. MUCH WARMER AND DRIER WEATHER WILL ARRIVE
NEXT WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
AN INCREASE IN MOISTURE TODAY IN THE PRESENCE OF A DEPARTING WEAK
TROUGH RESULTED IN SCATTERED SHOWERS AND EVEN SOME THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY. EXPECT CONVECTION TO CONTINUE THROUGH EARLY EVENING
BEFORE DECREASING IN COVERAGE OVERNIGHT. RAINFALL AMOUNTS SHOULD
GENERALLY REMAIN LESS THAN A QUARTER OF A INCH. ITS POSSIBLE SOME
SNOW PELLETS OR ICE COULD MIX DOWN TO HIGHER ELEVATIONS ABOVE 7000
FEET.

A STRONGER AND COLDER STORM SYSTEM WILL BRING MORE WIDESPREAD RAIN
AND HIGH ELEVATION SNOW SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. THE OVERALL TRACK AND
TIMING HAVE REMAINED PRETTY CONSISTENT OVER THE PAST 24 HRS. LOOK
FOR INCREASING PRECIPITATION CHANCES LATE SATURDAY AFTERNOON FROM
PRESCOTT-FLAGSTAFF NORTHWEST...ESPECIALLY IN FAVORED UPSLOPE
LOCATIONS ON SOUTHWEST FACING SLOPES. THE BEST PERIOD FOR
ACCUMULATING PRECIP WILL BE SATURDAY EVENING AND OVERNIGHT WHEN
THE STRENGTHENING UPPER LEVEL LOW MOVES ACROSS ARIZONA. MOST AREAS
WILL BEGIN AS RAIN WITH HIGHER ELEVATIONS ABOVE 6500-7000 FEET
SEEING A SWITCH OVER TO SNOW BY EARLY SUNDAY MORNING WHEN THE
COLDEST AIR ARRIVES. ELEVATIONS GENERALLY 7000 FT AND ABOVE ARE
EXPECTED TO SEE ANYWHERE FROM A TRACE TO 2 INCHES OF SNOWFALL
DURING THE MORNING HOURS. INSTABILITY SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE MUCH
OF THE DAY SUNDAY WITH SNOW LEVELS RISING ABOVE 7000 FEET LIMITING
ANY ACCUMULATION TO ONLY THE HIGHEST MOUNTAIN PEAKS.

AFTER QUITE A COOL DOWN OVER THE WEEKEND...WARMER WEATHER QUICKLY
DEVELOPS NEXT WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE SOUTHWEST.
TEMPERATURES WILL WARM CLOSER TO NORMAL BY MONDAY AND UP TO 10
DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL BY THE MID TO LATTER PART OF NEXT WEEK. A LOW
CHANCE FOR SHOWERS WILL LINGER ALONG THE NEW MEXICO BORDER EARLY
IN THE WEEK WITH OTHERWISE MOSTLY DRY WEATHER.

&&

.AVIATION...
FOR THE 00Z PACKAGE...EXPECT VFR/MVFR CONDITIONS WITH
CU/TCU/SC WITH BASES FROM 3-5KFT AGL...SCT BASES 1-3KFT AGL. SCT
-SHRA AND -TSRA THROUGH THE PERIOD. SFC WINDS SW 15-25G30KTS THROUGH
02Z SATURDAY AND AGAIN AFT 18Z SATURDAY. BRIEF IFR CONDITIONS IN THE
HEAVIER SHOWERS...SNOW PELLETS POSSIBLE AT HIGHER ELEVATIONS.
AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR TAF AMENDMENTS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...A STRONG AND COLD STORM SYSTEM WILL AFFECT THE
DISTRICT SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. EXPECT GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS SATURDAY
WITH SHOWER ACTIVITY INITIALLY OVER THE NORTHERN ZONES...THEN
SPREADING SOUTH THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY
WILL FEATURE WIDESPREAD RAIN AND HIGH ELEVATION SNOWFALL. COLDER AIR
AND A WIND SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST WILL ACCOMPANY CONTINUING SHOWER
ACTIVITY INTO SUNDAY AFTERNOON.

MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...A WARMING TREND WILL DEVELOP DURING THIS
PERIOD. GUSTY NORTHEAST WINDS ON MONDAY WILL SLOW THE WARMING...BUT
SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL HAVE SHIFTED EAST OF THE STATE. LESS WIND AND A
SIGNIFICANT WARMING TREND WILL DEVELOP TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.

&&

.FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC.........MCS
AVIATION.......PETERSON
FIRE WEATHER...PETERSON

FOR NORTHERN ARIZONA WEATHER INFORMATION VISIT
WEATHER.GOV/FLAGSTAFF





000
FXUS65 KFGZ 242239
AFDFGZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ
339 PM MST FRI APR 24 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TODAY AS
A WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM SLOWLY EXITS THE STATE. A STRONGER
SYSTEM WILL MOVE INTO THE STATE SATURDAY AND SUNDAY BRINGING
WINDY AND COLDER CONDITIONS...ALONG WITH RAIN AND MOUNTAIN SNOW
SHOWERS. LIGHT SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS ARE FORECAST FOR AREAS NEAR
AND ABOVE 7000 FEET. MUCH WARMER AND DRIER WEATHER WILL ARRIVE
NEXT WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
AN INCREASE IN MOISTURE TODAY IN THE PRESENCE OF A DEPARTING WEAK
TROUGH RESULTED IN SCATTERED SHOWERS AND EVEN SOME THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY. EXPECT CONVECTION TO CONTINUE THROUGH EARLY EVENING
BEFORE DECREASING IN COVERAGE OVERNIGHT. RAINFALL AMOUNTS SHOULD
GENERALLY REMAIN LESS THAN A QUARTER OF A INCH. ITS POSSIBLE SOME
SNOW PELLETS OR ICE COULD MIX DOWN TO HIGHER ELEVATIONS ABOVE 7000
FEET.

A STRONGER AND COLDER STORM SYSTEM WILL BRING MORE WIDESPREAD RAIN
AND HIGH ELEVATION SNOW SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. THE OVERALL TRACK AND
TIMING HAVE REMAINED PRETTY CONSISTENT OVER THE PAST 24 HRS. LOOK
FOR INCREASING PRECIPITATION CHANCES LATE SATURDAY AFTERNOON FROM
PRESCOTT-FLAGSTAFF NORTHWEST...ESPECIALLY IN FAVORED UPSLOPE
LOCATIONS ON SOUTHWEST FACING SLOPES. THE BEST PERIOD FOR
ACCUMULATING PRECIP WILL BE SATURDAY EVENING AND OVERNIGHT WHEN
THE STRENGTHENING UPPER LEVEL LOW MOVES ACROSS ARIZONA. MOST AREAS
WILL BEGIN AS RAIN WITH HIGHER ELEVATIONS ABOVE 6500-7000 FEET
SEEING A SWITCH OVER TO SNOW BY EARLY SUNDAY MORNING WHEN THE
COLDEST AIR ARRIVES. ELEVATIONS GENERALLY 7000 FT AND ABOVE ARE
EXPECTED TO SEE ANYWHERE FROM A TRACE TO 2 INCHES OF SNOWFALL
DURING THE MORNING HOURS. INSTABILITY SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE MUCH
OF THE DAY SUNDAY WITH SNOW LEVELS RISING ABOVE 7000 FEET LIMITING
ANY ACCUMULATION TO ONLY THE HIGHEST MOUNTAIN PEAKS.

AFTER QUITE A COOL DOWN OVER THE WEEKEND...WARMER WEATHER QUICKLY
DEVELOPS NEXT WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE SOUTHWEST.
TEMPERATURES WILL WARM CLOSER TO NORMAL BY MONDAY AND UP TO 10
DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL BY THE MID TO LATTER PART OF NEXT WEEK. A LOW
CHANCE FOR SHOWERS WILL LINGER ALONG THE NEW MEXICO BORDER EARLY
IN THE WEEK WITH OTHERWISE MOSTLY DRY WEATHER.

&&

.AVIATION...
FOR THE 00Z PACKAGE...EXPECT VFR/MVFR CONDITIONS WITH
CU/TCU/SC WITH BASES FROM 3-5KFT AGL...SCT BASES 1-3KFT AGL. SCT
-SHRA AND -TSRA THROUGH THE PERIOD. SFC WINDS SW 15-25G30KTS THROUGH
02Z SATURDAY AND AGAIN AFT 18Z SATURDAY. BRIEF IFR CONDITIONS IN THE
HEAVIER SHOWERS...SNOW PELLETS POSSIBLE AT HIGHER ELEVATIONS.
AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR TAF AMENDMENTS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...A STRONG AND COLD STORM SYSTEM WILL AFFECT THE
DISTRICT SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. EXPECT GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS SATURDAY
WITH SHOWER ACTIVITY INITIALLY OVER THE NORTHERN ZONES...THEN
SPREADING SOUTH THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY
WILL FEATURE WIDESPREAD RAIN AND HIGH ELEVATION SNOWFALL. COLDER AIR
AND A WIND SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST WILL ACCOMPANY CONTINUING SHOWER
ACTIVITY INTO SUNDAY AFTERNOON.

MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...A WARMING TREND WILL DEVELOP DURING THIS
PERIOD. GUSTY NORTHEAST WINDS ON MONDAY WILL SLOW THE WARMING...BUT
SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL HAVE SHIFTED EAST OF THE STATE. LESS WIND AND A
SIGNIFICANT WARMING TREND WILL DEVELOP TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.

&&

.FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC.........MCS
AVIATION.......PETERSON
FIRE WEATHER...PETERSON

FOR NORTHERN ARIZONA WEATHER INFORMATION VISIT
WEATHER.GOV/FLAGSTAFF





000
FXUS65 KFGZ 242239
AFDFGZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ
339 PM MST FRI APR 24 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TODAY AS
A WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM SLOWLY EXITS THE STATE. A STRONGER
SYSTEM WILL MOVE INTO THE STATE SATURDAY AND SUNDAY BRINGING
WINDY AND COLDER CONDITIONS...ALONG WITH RAIN AND MOUNTAIN SNOW
SHOWERS. LIGHT SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS ARE FORECAST FOR AREAS NEAR
AND ABOVE 7000 FEET. MUCH WARMER AND DRIER WEATHER WILL ARRIVE
NEXT WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
AN INCREASE IN MOISTURE TODAY IN THE PRESENCE OF A DEPARTING WEAK
TROUGH RESULTED IN SCATTERED SHOWERS AND EVEN SOME THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY. EXPECT CONVECTION TO CONTINUE THROUGH EARLY EVENING
BEFORE DECREASING IN COVERAGE OVERNIGHT. RAINFALL AMOUNTS SHOULD
GENERALLY REMAIN LESS THAN A QUARTER OF A INCH. ITS POSSIBLE SOME
SNOW PELLETS OR ICE COULD MIX DOWN TO HIGHER ELEVATIONS ABOVE 7000
FEET.

A STRONGER AND COLDER STORM SYSTEM WILL BRING MORE WIDESPREAD RAIN
AND HIGH ELEVATION SNOW SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. THE OVERALL TRACK AND
TIMING HAVE REMAINED PRETTY CONSISTENT OVER THE PAST 24 HRS. LOOK
FOR INCREASING PRECIPITATION CHANCES LATE SATURDAY AFTERNOON FROM
PRESCOTT-FLAGSTAFF NORTHWEST...ESPECIALLY IN FAVORED UPSLOPE
LOCATIONS ON SOUTHWEST FACING SLOPES. THE BEST PERIOD FOR
ACCUMULATING PRECIP WILL BE SATURDAY EVENING AND OVERNIGHT WHEN
THE STRENGTHENING UPPER LEVEL LOW MOVES ACROSS ARIZONA. MOST AREAS
WILL BEGIN AS RAIN WITH HIGHER ELEVATIONS ABOVE 6500-7000 FEET
SEEING A SWITCH OVER TO SNOW BY EARLY SUNDAY MORNING WHEN THE
COLDEST AIR ARRIVES. ELEVATIONS GENERALLY 7000 FT AND ABOVE ARE
EXPECTED TO SEE ANYWHERE FROM A TRACE TO 2 INCHES OF SNOWFALL
DURING THE MORNING HOURS. INSTABILITY SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE MUCH
OF THE DAY SUNDAY WITH SNOW LEVELS RISING ABOVE 7000 FEET LIMITING
ANY ACCUMULATION TO ONLY THE HIGHEST MOUNTAIN PEAKS.

AFTER QUITE A COOL DOWN OVER THE WEEKEND...WARMER WEATHER QUICKLY
DEVELOPS NEXT WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE SOUTHWEST.
TEMPERATURES WILL WARM CLOSER TO NORMAL BY MONDAY AND UP TO 10
DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL BY THE MID TO LATTER PART OF NEXT WEEK. A LOW
CHANCE FOR SHOWERS WILL LINGER ALONG THE NEW MEXICO BORDER EARLY
IN THE WEEK WITH OTHERWISE MOSTLY DRY WEATHER.

&&

.AVIATION...
FOR THE 00Z PACKAGE...EXPECT VFR/MVFR CONDITIONS WITH
CU/TCU/SC WITH BASES FROM 3-5KFT AGL...SCT BASES 1-3KFT AGL. SCT
-SHRA AND -TSRA THROUGH THE PERIOD. SFC WINDS SW 15-25G30KTS THROUGH
02Z SATURDAY AND AGAIN AFT 18Z SATURDAY. BRIEF IFR CONDITIONS IN THE
HEAVIER SHOWERS...SNOW PELLETS POSSIBLE AT HIGHER ELEVATIONS.
AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR TAF AMENDMENTS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...A STRONG AND COLD STORM SYSTEM WILL AFFECT THE
DISTRICT SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. EXPECT GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS SATURDAY
WITH SHOWER ACTIVITY INITIALLY OVER THE NORTHERN ZONES...THEN
SPREADING SOUTH THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY
WILL FEATURE WIDESPREAD RAIN AND HIGH ELEVATION SNOWFALL. COLDER AIR
AND A WIND SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST WILL ACCOMPANY CONTINUING SHOWER
ACTIVITY INTO SUNDAY AFTERNOON.

MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...A WARMING TREND WILL DEVELOP DURING THIS
PERIOD. GUSTY NORTHEAST WINDS ON MONDAY WILL SLOW THE WARMING...BUT
SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL HAVE SHIFTED EAST OF THE STATE. LESS WIND AND A
SIGNIFICANT WARMING TREND WILL DEVELOP TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.

&&

.FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC.........MCS
AVIATION.......PETERSON
FIRE WEATHER...PETERSON

FOR NORTHERN ARIZONA WEATHER INFORMATION VISIT
WEATHER.GOV/FLAGSTAFF





000
FXUS65 KFGZ 242239
AFDFGZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ
339 PM MST FRI APR 24 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TODAY AS
A WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM SLOWLY EXITS THE STATE. A STRONGER
SYSTEM WILL MOVE INTO THE STATE SATURDAY AND SUNDAY BRINGING
WINDY AND COLDER CONDITIONS...ALONG WITH RAIN AND MOUNTAIN SNOW
SHOWERS. LIGHT SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS ARE FORECAST FOR AREAS NEAR
AND ABOVE 7000 FEET. MUCH WARMER AND DRIER WEATHER WILL ARRIVE
NEXT WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
AN INCREASE IN MOISTURE TODAY IN THE PRESENCE OF A DEPARTING WEAK
TROUGH RESULTED IN SCATTERED SHOWERS AND EVEN SOME THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY. EXPECT CONVECTION TO CONTINUE THROUGH EARLY EVENING
BEFORE DECREASING IN COVERAGE OVERNIGHT. RAINFALL AMOUNTS SHOULD
GENERALLY REMAIN LESS THAN A QUARTER OF A INCH. ITS POSSIBLE SOME
SNOW PELLETS OR ICE COULD MIX DOWN TO HIGHER ELEVATIONS ABOVE 7000
FEET.

A STRONGER AND COLDER STORM SYSTEM WILL BRING MORE WIDESPREAD RAIN
AND HIGH ELEVATION SNOW SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. THE OVERALL TRACK AND
TIMING HAVE REMAINED PRETTY CONSISTENT OVER THE PAST 24 HRS. LOOK
FOR INCREASING PRECIPITATION CHANCES LATE SATURDAY AFTERNOON FROM
PRESCOTT-FLAGSTAFF NORTHWEST...ESPECIALLY IN FAVORED UPSLOPE
LOCATIONS ON SOUTHWEST FACING SLOPES. THE BEST PERIOD FOR
ACCUMULATING PRECIP WILL BE SATURDAY EVENING AND OVERNIGHT WHEN
THE STRENGTHENING UPPER LEVEL LOW MOVES ACROSS ARIZONA. MOST AREAS
WILL BEGIN AS RAIN WITH HIGHER ELEVATIONS ABOVE 6500-7000 FEET
SEEING A SWITCH OVER TO SNOW BY EARLY SUNDAY MORNING WHEN THE
COLDEST AIR ARRIVES. ELEVATIONS GENERALLY 7000 FT AND ABOVE ARE
EXPECTED TO SEE ANYWHERE FROM A TRACE TO 2 INCHES OF SNOWFALL
DURING THE MORNING HOURS. INSTABILITY SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE MUCH
OF THE DAY SUNDAY WITH SNOW LEVELS RISING ABOVE 7000 FEET LIMITING
ANY ACCUMULATION TO ONLY THE HIGHEST MOUNTAIN PEAKS.

AFTER QUITE A COOL DOWN OVER THE WEEKEND...WARMER WEATHER QUICKLY
DEVELOPS NEXT WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE SOUTHWEST.
TEMPERATURES WILL WARM CLOSER TO NORMAL BY MONDAY AND UP TO 10
DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL BY THE MID TO LATTER PART OF NEXT WEEK. A LOW
CHANCE FOR SHOWERS WILL LINGER ALONG THE NEW MEXICO BORDER EARLY
IN THE WEEK WITH OTHERWISE MOSTLY DRY WEATHER.

&&

.AVIATION...
FOR THE 00Z PACKAGE...EXPECT VFR/MVFR CONDITIONS WITH
CU/TCU/SC WITH BASES FROM 3-5KFT AGL...SCT BASES 1-3KFT AGL. SCT
-SHRA AND -TSRA THROUGH THE PERIOD. SFC WINDS SW 15-25G30KTS THROUGH
02Z SATURDAY AND AGAIN AFT 18Z SATURDAY. BRIEF IFR CONDITIONS IN THE
HEAVIER SHOWERS...SNOW PELLETS POSSIBLE AT HIGHER ELEVATIONS.
AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR TAF AMENDMENTS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...A STRONG AND COLD STORM SYSTEM WILL AFFECT THE
DISTRICT SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. EXPECT GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS SATURDAY
WITH SHOWER ACTIVITY INITIALLY OVER THE NORTHERN ZONES...THEN
SPREADING SOUTH THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY
WILL FEATURE WIDESPREAD RAIN AND HIGH ELEVATION SNOWFALL. COLDER AIR
AND A WIND SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST WILL ACCOMPANY CONTINUING SHOWER
ACTIVITY INTO SUNDAY AFTERNOON.

MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...A WARMING TREND WILL DEVELOP DURING THIS
PERIOD. GUSTY NORTHEAST WINDS ON MONDAY WILL SLOW THE WARMING...BUT
SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL HAVE SHIFTED EAST OF THE STATE. LESS WIND AND A
SIGNIFICANT WARMING TREND WILL DEVELOP TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.

&&

.FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC.........MCS
AVIATION.......PETERSON
FIRE WEATHER...PETERSON

FOR NORTHERN ARIZONA WEATHER INFORMATION VISIT
WEATHER.GOV/FLAGSTAFF





000
FXUS65 KTWC 242051
AFDTWC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ
150 PM MST FRI APR 24 2015

.SYNOPSIS...ISOLATED SHOWERS WILL BE ENDING THIS EVENING AS LOW
PRESSURE ALOFT EXISTS THAT STATE. DRY CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ON
SATURDAY. A STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL THEN MOVE INTO THE
REGION LATE SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY. THIS SYSTEM WILL BRING GUSTY
WINDS...COOLER TEMPERATURES AND A GOOD CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY. DRY CONDITIONS
WILL RETURN TO START THE WORK WEEK...ALONG WITH A STRONG WARMING
TREND TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...ISOLATED SHOWERS WILL BE AROUND THIS EVENING MAINLY
NORTHEAST OF TUCSON AS UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE EXITS THE STATE.
BRIEF DRY PERIOD SATURDAY BEFORE ANOTHER SYSTEM IMPACTS THE AREA
LATE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. THIS SYSTEM IS STRONG AND COOLER
THAN THE CURRENT ONE AND WILL BRING A VERY GOOD CHANCE OF
SHOWERS...POSSIBLY A FEW THUNDERSTORMS...TO MOST OF THE FORECAST
AREA. TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL VARY GREATLY WITH THE HIGHEST
AMOUNTS BETWEEN 0.50"-1" UP IN THE WHITES. SNOW LEVELS LOWERING TO
AROUND 7000-8000 FEET. SNOW AMOUNTS WILL BE TRICKY SINCE THE GROUND
IS RATHER WARM WITH MUCH FOR THE FIRST SNOWFALL MELTING. CURRENTLY
HAVE 2"-4" ABOVE 7000 FEET IN THE WHITES BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON. BREEZY
AND MUCH COOLER WITH THIS SYSTEM WITH HIGHS 8-15 DEGREES BELOW
NORMAL ON SUNDAY.

SYSTEM EXISTS THE STATE LATE SUNDAY INTO EARLY MONDAY WITH HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM THE WEST. THIS HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL BE
AROUND MOST OF NEXT WEEK RESULTING IN A RAPID WARMUP MONDAY WITH
WARM LATE APRIL TEMPERATURES IN THE FORECAST. LINGERING MOISTURE
WILL CONTINUE OVER THE WHITES EARLY NEXT WEEK TO KEEP A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF AFTERNOON SHOWERS IN THIS AREA MONDAY AND TUESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...VALID THRU 26/00Z. SCT-BKN CLOUD DECKS 5-8 KFT AGL
PRIMARILY NW OF KFHU-KCLT LINE WITH ISOLATED -SHRA/TS THROUGH
25/03Z. LIGHT WINDS LESS THAN 10 KTS...THEN SWLY TO WLY WINDS OF 12-
20 KTS WITH OCCASIONAL GUSTS TO 30 KTS THIS AFTERNOON WITH THE
HIGHEST WIND SPEEDS SOUTH AND EAST OF KTUS. CLEARING SKIES ALONG
WITH TYPICAL DIURNAL WINDS DEVELOPING AFTER 25/03Z. AVIATION
DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR TAF AMENDMENTS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...ISOLATED SHOWERS...POSSIBLY A THUNDERSTORM...THROUGH
EARLY THIS EVENING WITH GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS DIMINISHING AFTER
SUNSET. DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TONIGHT AND SATURDAY.

THEREAFTER...ANOTHER STORM SYSTEM WILL APPROACH THE REGION WHICH
WILL BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF ELEVATED WINDS AND A CHANCE OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY. THIS AREA OF
DISTURBED WEATHER WILL QUICKLY EXIT THE AREA RESULTING IN DRY
CONDITIONS RETURNING SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THE END OF NEXT WEEK.

A SUBSTANTIAL WARMING TREND IS ANTICIPATED STARTING MONDAY...WITH
CURRENT INDICATIONS POINTING TO HIGH TEMPERATURES INCREASING TO 6-12
DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL BY THE END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...YOUTUBE...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/TUCSON




000
FXUS65 KTWC 242051
AFDTWC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ
150 PM MST FRI APR 24 2015

.SYNOPSIS...ISOLATED SHOWERS WILL BE ENDING THIS EVENING AS LOW
PRESSURE ALOFT EXISTS THAT STATE. DRY CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ON
SATURDAY. A STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL THEN MOVE INTO THE
REGION LATE SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY. THIS SYSTEM WILL BRING GUSTY
WINDS...COOLER TEMPERATURES AND A GOOD CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY. DRY CONDITIONS
WILL RETURN TO START THE WORK WEEK...ALONG WITH A STRONG WARMING
TREND TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...ISOLATED SHOWERS WILL BE AROUND THIS EVENING MAINLY
NORTHEAST OF TUCSON AS UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE EXITS THE STATE.
BRIEF DRY PERIOD SATURDAY BEFORE ANOTHER SYSTEM IMPACTS THE AREA
LATE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. THIS SYSTEM IS STRONG AND COOLER
THAN THE CURRENT ONE AND WILL BRING A VERY GOOD CHANCE OF
SHOWERS...POSSIBLY A FEW THUNDERSTORMS...TO MOST OF THE FORECAST
AREA. TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL VARY GREATLY WITH THE HIGHEST
AMOUNTS BETWEEN 0.50"-1" UP IN THE WHITES. SNOW LEVELS LOWERING TO
AROUND 7000-8000 FEET. SNOW AMOUNTS WILL BE TRICKY SINCE THE GROUND
IS RATHER WARM WITH MUCH FOR THE FIRST SNOWFALL MELTING. CURRENTLY
HAVE 2"-4" ABOVE 7000 FEET IN THE WHITES BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON. BREEZY
AND MUCH COOLER WITH THIS SYSTEM WITH HIGHS 8-15 DEGREES BELOW
NORMAL ON SUNDAY.

SYSTEM EXISTS THE STATE LATE SUNDAY INTO EARLY MONDAY WITH HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM THE WEST. THIS HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL BE
AROUND MOST OF NEXT WEEK RESULTING IN A RAPID WARMUP MONDAY WITH
WARM LATE APRIL TEMPERATURES IN THE FORECAST. LINGERING MOISTURE
WILL CONTINUE OVER THE WHITES EARLY NEXT WEEK TO KEEP A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF AFTERNOON SHOWERS IN THIS AREA MONDAY AND TUESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...VALID THRU 26/00Z. SCT-BKN CLOUD DECKS 5-8 KFT AGL
PRIMARILY NW OF KFHU-KCLT LINE WITH ISOLATED -SHRA/TS THROUGH
25/03Z. LIGHT WINDS LESS THAN 10 KTS...THEN SWLY TO WLY WINDS OF 12-
20 KTS WITH OCCASIONAL GUSTS TO 30 KTS THIS AFTERNOON WITH THE
HIGHEST WIND SPEEDS SOUTH AND EAST OF KTUS. CLEARING SKIES ALONG
WITH TYPICAL DIURNAL WINDS DEVELOPING AFTER 25/03Z. AVIATION
DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR TAF AMENDMENTS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...ISOLATED SHOWERS...POSSIBLY A THUNDERSTORM...THROUGH
EARLY THIS EVENING WITH GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS DIMINISHING AFTER
SUNSET. DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TONIGHT AND SATURDAY.

THEREAFTER...ANOTHER STORM SYSTEM WILL APPROACH THE REGION WHICH
WILL BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF ELEVATED WINDS AND A CHANCE OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY. THIS AREA OF
DISTURBED WEATHER WILL QUICKLY EXIT THE AREA RESULTING IN DRY
CONDITIONS RETURNING SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THE END OF NEXT WEEK.

A SUBSTANTIAL WARMING TREND IS ANTICIPATED STARTING MONDAY...WITH
CURRENT INDICATIONS POINTING TO HIGH TEMPERATURES INCREASING TO 6-12
DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL BY THE END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...YOUTUBE...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/TUCSON



000
FXUS65 KPSR 241700
AFDPSR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PHOENIX AZ
1000 AM MST FRI APR 24 2015


.SYNOPSIS...
A SERIES OF PACIFIC WEATHER DISTURBANCES WILL SLOWLY
MOVE THROUGH THE REGION TODAY AND THIS WEEKEND...PROVIDING COOLER
TEMPERATURES AND MORE HUMID CONDITIONS. A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS IS FORECAST OVER THE SOUTH CENTRAL ARIZONA
MOUNTAINS TODAY...WITH A BETTER CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
SATURDAY NIGHT IN SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH CENTRAL ARIZONA. A STRONG COLD
FRONT IS FORECAST TO MOVE INTO CENTRAL ARIZONA SATURDAY NIGHT.
CLEARING SKIES ARE EXPECTED BY LATER SUNDAY WITH DRY AND MUCH
WARMER WEATHER NEXT WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
UPPER TROUGH AXIS IS OVER ARIZONA THIS MORNING EXTENDING
SOUTHWESTWARD ACROSS NORTHERN BAJA MEXICO. THE MAIN VORT MAX WITHIN
THE TROUGH IS ALREADY OVER NEW MEXICO. A WEAKER TRAILING VORT MAX
HAS BEEN HELPING TO PRODUCE ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS OVER
MARICOPA...PINAL...AND GILA COUNTIES. CAPE LOOKS QUITE MODEST BUT
JUST ENOUGH TO GET SOME STRAY SHOWERS THAT HAVE HEAVIER SHOWERS WITH
THEM THAN THE OTHERS. COULD POSSIBLY GET A DEEP ENOUGH SHOWER TO GET
A RUMBLE OF THUNDER. EVEN IN THAT SCENARIO...NOT LOOKING AT ANY
FLOODING ISSUES AS IT WOULD BE VERY LOCALIZED AND BRIEF. HRRR KEEPS
ISOLATED SHOWER ACTIVITY GOING INTO THE AFTERNOON WHILE OTHER HI RES
MODELS TREND THINGS DOWN QUICKLY AFTER MIDDAY. WILL MAKE SOME MINOR
ADJUSTMENTS TO KEEP POPS GOING PAST 18Z TODAY. NEXT SYSTEM BEGINS
ENTERING OUR FORECAST AREA SATURDAY AFTERNOON WITH THE MAIN
DYNAMICAL PUSH HAPPENING BETWEEN 00Z-18Z SUNDAY. MORE LATER.

&&

.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION ISSUED 305 AM MST/PDT...
TODAY...
A BROAD COOL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WAS SLOWLY MOVING THROUGH
CENTRAL ARIZONA EARLY THIS MORNING FROM THE WEST. 00Z PLOT DATA...
5PM LAST EVENING DETECTED A CONSIDERABLE AMOUNT OF BOUNDARY LAYER
MOISTURE 7000 FEET DEEP SPREADING ACROSS THE COLORADO RIVER FROM
SOUTHERN CA. THIS IS A SIGNIFICANT AMOUNT OF MOISTURE RELATIVE TO
TEMPS ALOFT...AND WILL SPREAD EAST ACROSS AZ TODAY.

AS THE UPPER LOW SLOWLY MOVED INTO AZ OVERNIGHT...SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WERE NOTED IN FAR SOUTHEAST AZ JUST BEFORE MIDNIGHT...
WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN MARICOPA COUNTY JUST
NORTH OF PHOENIX AT 2 AM. CURRENT FORECASTS HANG ON TO A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF SHOWERS THROUGH THE FRIDAY MORNING HOURS...WITH THE SHOWER
THREAT ENDING IN ALL BUT SOUTHERN GILA COUNTY ZONE 24 BY EARLY
AFTERNOON.

TONIGHT AND SATURDAY...
ALTHOUGH CONSIDERABLE BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE WILL RESIDE OVER THE
FORECAST AREA...SOUTHEAST CA TO SOUTH CENTRAL AZ...THE ATMOSPHERE
WILL BE TOO STABLE TO GENERATE ANY SHOWER ACTIVITY. THEREFORE PARTLY
CLOUDY SKIES WITH BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST AREA-WIDE.

SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY...
A POWERFUL NEGATIVE TILT TROF IS STILL FORECAST TO RAPIDLY DEEPEN
INTO CENTRAL AZ SATURDAY NIGHT. IN FACT... THE STRONGEST VERTICAL
MOTION FIELD...REPLETE WITH POSSIBLE HEAVY SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
WILL BECOME FOCUSED BETWEEN PRESCOTT AND QUARTZSITE BY 9 PM
SATURDAY...OR IN LA PAZ AND NORTHWEST MARICOPA COUNTIES...THEN
SPREAD EAST ACROSS THE PHOENIX AREA BY 2 AM SATURDAY NIGHT. SINCE
BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE WILL BE RELATIVELY DEEP...THIS CLASSIC FAST
MOVING COLD FRONT MAY RESULT IN A LINE OF SHWRS/TSTMS WITH POTENTIAL
FOR BRIEF HEAVY RAIN AND STRONG WIND. PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST CA IN
RIVERSIDE COUNTY MAY SEE A FEW SHOWERS/SLIGHT CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS EARLY SATURDAY EVENING...BUT MOST OF THE ACTIVITY WILL
BE CONFINED TO ARIZONA.

THE COLD FRONT BY 7 AM SUNDAY SHOULD HAVE MOVED TO THE EASTERN AZ
BORDER RESULTING IN LINGERING SHOWERS OR UNSETTLED CONDITIONS OVER
SOUTH CENTRAL ARIZONA SUNDAY AFTERNOON...MAINLY PHOENIX EASTWARD.
CLEARING SUNDAY NIGHT.

MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...
DRY NORTHERLY FLOW WILL DEVELOP MONDAY AND TUESDAY FOLLOWED BY A
BUILDING RIDGE OVER THE REGION WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. MUCH WARMER
TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST WEDNESDAY WITH NEAR 100 DEGREE HEAT ON THE
WARMEST DESERTS.

&&

.AVIATION...

SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA INCLUDING KPHX...KIWA...AND KSDL...
SCATTERED SHOWERS CONTINUE ACROSS THE AREA THIS MORNING AND WILL
PERSIST INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS. KIWA/KSDL THE MOST LIKELY TO
SEE SHOWERS AT THE AIRFIELD WHILE KPHX MAY ONLY SEE VCSH BASED ON
RADAR TRENDS. WIDESPREAD CIGS AROUND 6KFT WILL BE COMMON THROUGH LATE
AFTERNOON. OTHERWISE EXPECT CONDITIONS TO IMPROVE LATE THIS
AFTERNOON/EVENING.

SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA AND SOUTHWEST ARIZONA INCLUDING KIPL AND KBLH...
FEW-SCT HIGH CLOUDS FROM FRIDAY MORNING ONWARD. PASSING UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH WILL CONTINUE ELEVATED WINDS...WITH GUSTS INTO TO 20KT RANGE
PSBL THROUGHOUT THE DAY. STRONGER WINDS IN THE FORECAST FOR
SATURDAY...WITH GUSTS PUSHING 35KTS PARTICULARLY ACROSS IMPERIAL
COUNTY AND KIPL.


AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDED TAFS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...
FINAL PIECE OF A POTENT UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL SWIFTLY MOVE THROUGH
THE REGION SUNDAY...SUPPORTING ADDITIONAL BREEZY TO LOCALLY WINDY
CONDITIONS. DEWPOINTS WILL SLOWLY DRY IN THE WAKE OF A PASSING COOL
FRONT...BUT CRITICALLY LOW HUMIDITIES WILL GENERALLY BE OFFSET OF
THE STRONGEST WINDS AND EVEN THEN ONLY DRY INTO THE 20 PERCENT RANGE
OR SO ON SUNDAY. THE MAIN TROUGH FEATURE WILL CLEAR THE AREA SUNDAY
NIGHT/MONDAY...WITH RESIDUAL WEAK TROUGH HEIGHTS LINGERING OVER THE
SOUTHWEST. DRY AIR WILL CONTINUE TO SETTLE INTO THE REGION WHILE
TEMPERATURES WARM TO MORE SEASONAL...AND EVEN ABOVE
SEASONAL...READINGS. THIS WILL RESULT IN SINGLE DIGIT AFTERNOON
HUMIDITIES WITH FAIR OVERNIGHT RECOVERIES. WINDS FROM MONDAY ONWARD
WILL GENERALLY BE LIGHT AND WILL FOLLOW TYPICAL DIURNAL TRENDS.

&&

.PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AZ...NONE.

CA...WIND ADVISORY FROM 1 PM TO 9 PM PDT SATURDAY FOR CAZ030>033.

&&

$$

VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/PHOENIX

DISCUSSION...AJ
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...VASQUEZ
AVIATION...LEINS
FIRE WEATHER...NOLTE/LEINS



000
FXUS65 KPSR 241700
AFDPSR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PHOENIX AZ
1000 AM MST FRI APR 24 2015


.SYNOPSIS...
A SERIES OF PACIFIC WEATHER DISTURBANCES WILL SLOWLY
MOVE THROUGH THE REGION TODAY AND THIS WEEKEND...PROVIDING COOLER
TEMPERATURES AND MORE HUMID CONDITIONS. A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS IS FORECAST OVER THE SOUTH CENTRAL ARIZONA
MOUNTAINS TODAY...WITH A BETTER CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
SATURDAY NIGHT IN SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH CENTRAL ARIZONA. A STRONG COLD
FRONT IS FORECAST TO MOVE INTO CENTRAL ARIZONA SATURDAY NIGHT.
CLEARING SKIES ARE EXPECTED BY LATER SUNDAY WITH DRY AND MUCH
WARMER WEATHER NEXT WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
UPPER TROUGH AXIS IS OVER ARIZONA THIS MORNING EXTENDING
SOUTHWESTWARD ACROSS NORTHERN BAJA MEXICO. THE MAIN VORT MAX WITHIN
THE TROUGH IS ALREADY OVER NEW MEXICO. A WEAKER TRAILING VORT MAX
HAS BEEN HELPING TO PRODUCE ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS OVER
MARICOPA...PINAL...AND GILA COUNTIES. CAPE LOOKS QUITE MODEST BUT
JUST ENOUGH TO GET SOME STRAY SHOWERS THAT HAVE HEAVIER SHOWERS WITH
THEM THAN THE OTHERS. COULD POSSIBLY GET A DEEP ENOUGH SHOWER TO GET
A RUMBLE OF THUNDER. EVEN IN THAT SCENARIO...NOT LOOKING AT ANY
FLOODING ISSUES AS IT WOULD BE VERY LOCALIZED AND BRIEF. HRRR KEEPS
ISOLATED SHOWER ACTIVITY GOING INTO THE AFTERNOON WHILE OTHER HI RES
MODELS TREND THINGS DOWN QUICKLY AFTER MIDDAY. WILL MAKE SOME MINOR
ADJUSTMENTS TO KEEP POPS GOING PAST 18Z TODAY. NEXT SYSTEM BEGINS
ENTERING OUR FORECAST AREA SATURDAY AFTERNOON WITH THE MAIN
DYNAMICAL PUSH HAPPENING BETWEEN 00Z-18Z SUNDAY. MORE LATER.

&&

.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION ISSUED 305 AM MST/PDT...
TODAY...
A BROAD COOL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WAS SLOWLY MOVING THROUGH
CENTRAL ARIZONA EARLY THIS MORNING FROM THE WEST. 00Z PLOT DATA...
5PM LAST EVENING DETECTED A CONSIDERABLE AMOUNT OF BOUNDARY LAYER
MOISTURE 7000 FEET DEEP SPREADING ACROSS THE COLORADO RIVER FROM
SOUTHERN CA. THIS IS A SIGNIFICANT AMOUNT OF MOISTURE RELATIVE TO
TEMPS ALOFT...AND WILL SPREAD EAST ACROSS AZ TODAY.

AS THE UPPER LOW SLOWLY MOVED INTO AZ OVERNIGHT...SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WERE NOTED IN FAR SOUTHEAST AZ JUST BEFORE MIDNIGHT...
WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN MARICOPA COUNTY JUST
NORTH OF PHOENIX AT 2 AM. CURRENT FORECASTS HANG ON TO A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF SHOWERS THROUGH THE FRIDAY MORNING HOURS...WITH THE SHOWER
THREAT ENDING IN ALL BUT SOUTHERN GILA COUNTY ZONE 24 BY EARLY
AFTERNOON.

TONIGHT AND SATURDAY...
ALTHOUGH CONSIDERABLE BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE WILL RESIDE OVER THE
FORECAST AREA...SOUTHEAST CA TO SOUTH CENTRAL AZ...THE ATMOSPHERE
WILL BE TOO STABLE TO GENERATE ANY SHOWER ACTIVITY. THEREFORE PARTLY
CLOUDY SKIES WITH BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST AREA-WIDE.

SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY...
A POWERFUL NEGATIVE TILT TROF IS STILL FORECAST TO RAPIDLY DEEPEN
INTO CENTRAL AZ SATURDAY NIGHT. IN FACT... THE STRONGEST VERTICAL
MOTION FIELD...REPLETE WITH POSSIBLE HEAVY SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
WILL BECOME FOCUSED BETWEEN PRESCOTT AND QUARTZSITE BY 9 PM
SATURDAY...OR IN LA PAZ AND NORTHWEST MARICOPA COUNTIES...THEN
SPREAD EAST ACROSS THE PHOENIX AREA BY 2 AM SATURDAY NIGHT. SINCE
BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE WILL BE RELATIVELY DEEP...THIS CLASSIC FAST
MOVING COLD FRONT MAY RESULT IN A LINE OF SHWRS/TSTMS WITH POTENTIAL
FOR BRIEF HEAVY RAIN AND STRONG WIND. PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST CA IN
RIVERSIDE COUNTY MAY SEE A FEW SHOWERS/SLIGHT CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS EARLY SATURDAY EVENING...BUT MOST OF THE ACTIVITY WILL
BE CONFINED TO ARIZONA.

THE COLD FRONT BY 7 AM SUNDAY SHOULD HAVE MOVED TO THE EASTERN AZ
BORDER RESULTING IN LINGERING SHOWERS OR UNSETTLED CONDITIONS OVER
SOUTH CENTRAL ARIZONA SUNDAY AFTERNOON...MAINLY PHOENIX EASTWARD.
CLEARING SUNDAY NIGHT.

MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...
DRY NORTHERLY FLOW WILL DEVELOP MONDAY AND TUESDAY FOLLOWED BY A
BUILDING RIDGE OVER THE REGION WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. MUCH WARMER
TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST WEDNESDAY WITH NEAR 100 DEGREE HEAT ON THE
WARMEST DESERTS.

&&

.AVIATION...

SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA INCLUDING KPHX...KIWA...AND KSDL...
SCATTERED SHOWERS CONTINUE ACROSS THE AREA THIS MORNING AND WILL
PERSIST INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS. KIWA/KSDL THE MOST LIKELY TO
SEE SHOWERS AT THE AIRFIELD WHILE KPHX MAY ONLY SEE VCSH BASED ON
RADAR TRENDS. WIDESPREAD CIGS AROUND 6KFT WILL BE COMMON THROUGH LATE
AFTERNOON. OTHERWISE EXPECT CONDITIONS TO IMPROVE LATE THIS
AFTERNOON/EVENING.

SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA AND SOUTHWEST ARIZONA INCLUDING KIPL AND KBLH...
FEW-SCT HIGH CLOUDS FROM FRIDAY MORNING ONWARD. PASSING UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH WILL CONTINUE ELEVATED WINDS...WITH GUSTS INTO TO 20KT RANGE
PSBL THROUGHOUT THE DAY. STRONGER WINDS IN THE FORECAST FOR
SATURDAY...WITH GUSTS PUSHING 35KTS PARTICULARLY ACROSS IMPERIAL
COUNTY AND KIPL.


AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDED TAFS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...
FINAL PIECE OF A POTENT UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL SWIFTLY MOVE THROUGH
THE REGION SUNDAY...SUPPORTING ADDITIONAL BREEZY TO LOCALLY WINDY
CONDITIONS. DEWPOINTS WILL SLOWLY DRY IN THE WAKE OF A PASSING COOL
FRONT...BUT CRITICALLY LOW HUMIDITIES WILL GENERALLY BE OFFSET OF
THE STRONGEST WINDS AND EVEN THEN ONLY DRY INTO THE 20 PERCENT RANGE
OR SO ON SUNDAY. THE MAIN TROUGH FEATURE WILL CLEAR THE AREA SUNDAY
NIGHT/MONDAY...WITH RESIDUAL WEAK TROUGH HEIGHTS LINGERING OVER THE
SOUTHWEST. DRY AIR WILL CONTINUE TO SETTLE INTO THE REGION WHILE
TEMPERATURES WARM TO MORE SEASONAL...AND EVEN ABOVE
SEASONAL...READINGS. THIS WILL RESULT IN SINGLE DIGIT AFTERNOON
HUMIDITIES WITH FAIR OVERNIGHT RECOVERIES. WINDS FROM MONDAY ONWARD
WILL GENERALLY BE LIGHT AND WILL FOLLOW TYPICAL DIURNAL TRENDS.

&&

.PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AZ...NONE.

CA...WIND ADVISORY FROM 1 PM TO 9 PM PDT SATURDAY FOR CAZ030>033.

&&

$$

VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/PHOENIX

DISCUSSION...AJ
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...VASQUEZ
AVIATION...LEINS
FIRE WEATHER...NOLTE/LEINS




000
FXUS65 KPSR 241634
AFDPSR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PHOENIX AZ
934 AM MST FRI APR 24 2015

.UPDATE...UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION...

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
A SERIES OF PACIFIC WEATHER DISTURBANCES WILL SLOWLY
MOVE THROUGH THE REGION TODAY AND THIS WEEKEND...PROVIDING COOLER
TEMPERATURES AND MORE HUMID CONDITIONS. A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS IS FORECAST OVER THE SOUTH CENTRAL ARIZONA
MOUNTAINS TODAY...WITH A BETTER CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
SATURDAY NIGHT IN SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH CENTRAL ARIZONA. A STRONG COLD
FRONT IS FORECAST TO MOVE INTO CENTRAL ARIZONA SATURDAY NIGHT.
CLEARING SKIES ARE EXPECTED BY LATER SUNDAY WITH DRY AND MUCH
WARMER WEATHER NEXT WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
TODAY...
A BROAD COOL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WAS SLOWLY MOVING THROUGH
CENTRAL ARIZONA EARLY THIS MORNING FROM THE WEST. 00Z PLOT DATA...
5PM LAST EVENING DETECTED A CONSIDERABLE AMOUNT OF BOUNDARY LAYER
MOISTURE 7000 FEET DEEP SPREADING ACROSS THE COLORADO RIVER FROM
SOUTHERN CA. THIS IS A SIGNIFICANT AMOUNT OF MOISTURE RELATIVE TO
TEMPS ALOFT...AND WILL SPREAD EAST ACROSS AZ TODAY.

AS THE UPPER LOW SLOWLY MOVED INTO AZ OVERNIGHT...SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WERE NOTED IN FAR SOUTHEAST AZ JUST BEFORE MIDNIGHT...
WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN MARICOPA COUNTY JUST
NORTH OF PHOENIX AT 2 AM. CURRENT FORECASTS HANG ON TO A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF SHOWERS THROUGH THE FRIDAY MORNING HOURS...WITH THE SHOWER
THREAT ENDING IN ALL BUT SOUTHERN GILA COUNTY ZONE 24 BY EARLY
AFTERNOON.

TONIGHT AND SATURDAY...
ALTHOUGH CONSIDERABLE BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE WILL RESIDE OVER THE
FORECAST AREA...SOUTHEAST CA TO SOUTH CENTRAL AZ...THE ATMOSPHERE
WILL BE TOO STABLE TO GENERATE ANY SHOWER ACTIVITY. THEREFORE PARTLY
CLOUDY SKIES WITH BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST AREA-WIDE.

SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY...
A POWERFUL NEGATIVE TILT TROF IS STILL FORECAST TO RAPIDLY DEEPEN
INTO CENTRAL AZ SATURDAY NIGHT. IN FACT... THE STRONGEST VERTICAL
MOTION FIELD...REPLETE WITH POSSIBLE HEAVY SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
WILL BECOME FOCUSED BETWEEN PRESCOTT AND QUARTZSITE BY 9 PM
SATURDAY...OR IN LA PAZ AND NORTHWEST MARICOPA COUNTIES...THEN
SPREAD EAST ACROSS THE PHOENIX AREA BY 2 AM SATURDAY NIGHT. SINCE
BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE WILL BE RELATIVELY DEEP...THIS CLASSIC FAST
MOVING COLD FRONT MAY RESULT IN A LINE OF SHWRS/TSTMS WITH POTENTIAL
FOR BRIEF HEAVY RAIN AND STRONG WIND. PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST CA IN
RIVERSIDE COUNTY MAY SEE A FEW SHOWERS/SLIGHT CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS EARLY SATURDAY EVENING...BUT MOST OF THE ACTIVITY WILL
BE CONFINED TO ARIZONA.

THE COLD FRONT BY 7 AM SUNDAY SHOULD HAVE MOVED TO THE EASTERN AZ
BORDER RESULTING IN LINGERING SHOWERS OR UNSETTLED CONDITIONS OVER
SOUTH CENTRAL ARIZONA SUNDAY AFTERNOON...MAINLY PHOENIX EASTWARD.
CLEARING SUNDAY NIGHT.

MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...
DRY NORTHERLY FLOW WILL DEVELOP MONDAY AND TUESDAY FOLLOWED BY A
BUILDING RIDGE OVER THE REGION WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. MUCH WARMER
TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST WEDNESDAY WITH NEAR 100 DEGREE HEAT ON THE
WARMEST DESERTS.

&&

.AVIATION...

SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA INCLUDING KPHX...KIWA...AND KSDL...
SCATTERED SHOWERS CONTINUE ACROSS THE AREA THIS MORNING AND WILL
PERSIST INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS. KIWA/KSDL THE MOST LIKELY TO
SEE SHOWERS AT THE AIRFIELD WHILE KPHX MAY ONLY SEE VCSH BASED ON
RADAR TRENDS. WIDESPREAD CIGS AROUND 6KFT WILL BE COMMON THROUGH LATE
AFTERNOON. OTHERWISE EXPECT CONDITIONS TO IMPROVE LATE THIS
AFTERNOON/EVENING.

SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA AND SOUTHWEST ARIZONA INCLUDING KIPL AND KBLH...
FEW-SCT HIGH CLOUDS FROM FRIDAY MORNING ONWARD. PASSING UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH WILL CONTINUE ELEVATED WINDS...WITH GUSTS INTO TO 20KT RANGE
PSBL THROUGHOUT THE DAY. STRONGER WINDS IN THE FORECAST FOR
SATURDAY...WITH GUSTS PUSHING 35KTS PARTICULARLY ACROSS IMPERIAL
COUNTY AND KIPL.

AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDED TAFS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...
FINAL PIECE OF A POTENT UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL SWIFTLY MOVE THROUGH
THE REGION SUNDAY...SUPPORTING ADDITIONAL BREEZY TO LOCALLY WINDY
CONDITIONS. DEWPOINTS WILL SLOWLY DRY IN THE WAKE OF A PASSING COOL
FRONT...BUT CRITICALLY LOW HUMIDITIES WILL GENERALLY BE OFFSET OF
THE STRONGEST WINDS AND EVEN THEN ONLY DRY INTO THE 20 PERCENT RANGE
OR SO ON SUNDAY. THE MAIN TROUGH FEATURE WILL CLEAR THE AREA SUNDAY
NIGHT/MONDAY...WITH RESIDUAL WEAK TROUGH HEIGHTS LINGERING OVER THE
SOUTHWEST. DRY AIR WILL CONTINUE TO SETTLE INTO THE REGION WHILE
TEMPERATURES WARM TO MORE SEASONAL...AND EVEN ABOVE
SEASONAL...READINGS. THIS WILL RESULT IN SINGLE DIGIT AFTERNOON
HUMIDITIES WITH FAIR OVERNIGHT RECOVERIES. WINDS FROM MONDAY ONWARD
WILL GENERALLY BE LIGHT AND WILL FOLLOW TYPICAL DIURNAL TRENDS.

&&

.PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AZ...NONE.
CA...WIND ADVISORY FROM 1 PM TO 9 PM PDT SATURDAY FOR CAZ030>033.

&&

$$

VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/PHOENIX

DISCUSSION...VASQUEZ
AVIATION....LEINS
FIRE WEATHER...NOLTE



000
FXUS65 KPSR 241634
AFDPSR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PHOENIX AZ
934 AM MST FRI APR 24 2015

.UPDATE...UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION...

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
A SERIES OF PACIFIC WEATHER DISTURBANCES WILL SLOWLY
MOVE THROUGH THE REGION TODAY AND THIS WEEKEND...PROVIDING COOLER
TEMPERATURES AND MORE HUMID CONDITIONS. A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS IS FORECAST OVER THE SOUTH CENTRAL ARIZONA
MOUNTAINS TODAY...WITH A BETTER CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
SATURDAY NIGHT IN SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH CENTRAL ARIZONA. A STRONG COLD
FRONT IS FORECAST TO MOVE INTO CENTRAL ARIZONA SATURDAY NIGHT.
CLEARING SKIES ARE EXPECTED BY LATER SUNDAY WITH DRY AND MUCH
WARMER WEATHER NEXT WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
TODAY...
A BROAD COOL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WAS SLOWLY MOVING THROUGH
CENTRAL ARIZONA EARLY THIS MORNING FROM THE WEST. 00Z PLOT DATA...
5PM LAST EVENING DETECTED A CONSIDERABLE AMOUNT OF BOUNDARY LAYER
MOISTURE 7000 FEET DEEP SPREADING ACROSS THE COLORADO RIVER FROM
SOUTHERN CA. THIS IS A SIGNIFICANT AMOUNT OF MOISTURE RELATIVE TO
TEMPS ALOFT...AND WILL SPREAD EAST ACROSS AZ TODAY.

AS THE UPPER LOW SLOWLY MOVED INTO AZ OVERNIGHT...SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WERE NOTED IN FAR SOUTHEAST AZ JUST BEFORE MIDNIGHT...
WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN MARICOPA COUNTY JUST
NORTH OF PHOENIX AT 2 AM. CURRENT FORECASTS HANG ON TO A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF SHOWERS THROUGH THE FRIDAY MORNING HOURS...WITH THE SHOWER
THREAT ENDING IN ALL BUT SOUTHERN GILA COUNTY ZONE 24 BY EARLY
AFTERNOON.

TONIGHT AND SATURDAY...
ALTHOUGH CONSIDERABLE BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE WILL RESIDE OVER THE
FORECAST AREA...SOUTHEAST CA TO SOUTH CENTRAL AZ...THE ATMOSPHERE
WILL BE TOO STABLE TO GENERATE ANY SHOWER ACTIVITY. THEREFORE PARTLY
CLOUDY SKIES WITH BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST AREA-WIDE.

SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY...
A POWERFUL NEGATIVE TILT TROF IS STILL FORECAST TO RAPIDLY DEEPEN
INTO CENTRAL AZ SATURDAY NIGHT. IN FACT... THE STRONGEST VERTICAL
MOTION FIELD...REPLETE WITH POSSIBLE HEAVY SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
WILL BECOME FOCUSED BETWEEN PRESCOTT AND QUARTZSITE BY 9 PM
SATURDAY...OR IN LA PAZ AND NORTHWEST MARICOPA COUNTIES...THEN
SPREAD EAST ACROSS THE PHOENIX AREA BY 2 AM SATURDAY NIGHT. SINCE
BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE WILL BE RELATIVELY DEEP...THIS CLASSIC FAST
MOVING COLD FRONT MAY RESULT IN A LINE OF SHWRS/TSTMS WITH POTENTIAL
FOR BRIEF HEAVY RAIN AND STRONG WIND. PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST CA IN
RIVERSIDE COUNTY MAY SEE A FEW SHOWERS/SLIGHT CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS EARLY SATURDAY EVENING...BUT MOST OF THE ACTIVITY WILL
BE CONFINED TO ARIZONA.

THE COLD FRONT BY 7 AM SUNDAY SHOULD HAVE MOVED TO THE EASTERN AZ
BORDER RESULTING IN LINGERING SHOWERS OR UNSETTLED CONDITIONS OVER
SOUTH CENTRAL ARIZONA SUNDAY AFTERNOON...MAINLY PHOENIX EASTWARD.
CLEARING SUNDAY NIGHT.

MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...
DRY NORTHERLY FLOW WILL DEVELOP MONDAY AND TUESDAY FOLLOWED BY A
BUILDING RIDGE OVER THE REGION WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. MUCH WARMER
TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST WEDNESDAY WITH NEAR 100 DEGREE HEAT ON THE
WARMEST DESERTS.

&&

.AVIATION...

SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA INCLUDING KPHX...KIWA...AND KSDL...
SCATTERED SHOWERS CONTINUE ACROSS THE AREA THIS MORNING AND WILL
PERSIST INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS. KIWA/KSDL THE MOST LIKELY TO
SEE SHOWERS AT THE AIRFIELD WHILE KPHX MAY ONLY SEE VCSH BASED ON
RADAR TRENDS. WIDESPREAD CIGS AROUND 6KFT WILL BE COMMON THROUGH LATE
AFTERNOON. OTHERWISE EXPECT CONDITIONS TO IMPROVE LATE THIS
AFTERNOON/EVENING.

SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA AND SOUTHWEST ARIZONA INCLUDING KIPL AND KBLH...
FEW-SCT HIGH CLOUDS FROM FRIDAY MORNING ONWARD. PASSING UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH WILL CONTINUE ELEVATED WINDS...WITH GUSTS INTO TO 20KT RANGE
PSBL THROUGHOUT THE DAY. STRONGER WINDS IN THE FORECAST FOR
SATURDAY...WITH GUSTS PUSHING 35KTS PARTICULARLY ACROSS IMPERIAL
COUNTY AND KIPL.

AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDED TAFS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...
FINAL PIECE OF A POTENT UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL SWIFTLY MOVE THROUGH
THE REGION SUNDAY...SUPPORTING ADDITIONAL BREEZY TO LOCALLY WINDY
CONDITIONS. DEWPOINTS WILL SLOWLY DRY IN THE WAKE OF A PASSING COOL
FRONT...BUT CRITICALLY LOW HUMIDITIES WILL GENERALLY BE OFFSET OF
THE STRONGEST WINDS AND EVEN THEN ONLY DRY INTO THE 20 PERCENT RANGE
OR SO ON SUNDAY. THE MAIN TROUGH FEATURE WILL CLEAR THE AREA SUNDAY
NIGHT/MONDAY...WITH RESIDUAL WEAK TROUGH HEIGHTS LINGERING OVER THE
SOUTHWEST. DRY AIR WILL CONTINUE TO SETTLE INTO THE REGION WHILE
TEMPERATURES WARM TO MORE SEASONAL...AND EVEN ABOVE
SEASONAL...READINGS. THIS WILL RESULT IN SINGLE DIGIT AFTERNOON
HUMIDITIES WITH FAIR OVERNIGHT RECOVERIES. WINDS FROM MONDAY ONWARD
WILL GENERALLY BE LIGHT AND WILL FOLLOW TYPICAL DIURNAL TRENDS.

&&

.PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AZ...NONE.
CA...WIND ADVISORY FROM 1 PM TO 9 PM PDT SATURDAY FOR CAZ030>033.

&&

$$

VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/PHOENIX

DISCUSSION...VASQUEZ
AVIATION....LEINS
FIRE WEATHER...NOLTE




000
FXUS65 KTWC 241553
AFDTWC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ
850 AM MST FRI APR 24 2015

.SYNOPSIS...A WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE STATE
TODAY...RESULTING IN A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY
FROM TUCSON WEST AND NORTH. DRY CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AREA-WIDE ON
SATURDAY. A STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL THEN MOVE INTO THE
REGION SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY. THIS SYSTEM WILL BRING GUSTY
WINDS...COOLER TEMPERATURES AND A GOOD CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS TO THE EASTERN HALF OF SOUTHERN ARIZONA
SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY. DRY CONDITIONS WILL RETURN TO START THE
WORK WEEK...ALONG WITH A STRONG WARMING TREND TUESDAY THROUGH
THURSDAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...ISOLATED SHOWERS HAVE DEVELOPED THIS MORNING AS UPPER
LEVEL TROF MOVES ACROSS THE AREA. LATEST HRRR RUNS INDICATE THAT
ISOLATED SHOWERS WILL BE AROUND MAINLY FROM TUCSON WEST AND NORTH
INTO THE AFTERNOON HOURS. HAVE UPDATED THE FORECAST FOR THIS MORNING
TIME FRAME TO ADD ISOLATED SHOWERS...MAINLY FROM TUCSON WEST AND
NORTH...AND WILL CONTINUE TO LOOK AT NEW MODEL DATA FOR THE
AFTERNOON PART OF THE TODAYS FORECAST SHORTLY.

&&

.AVIATION...VALID THRU 25/18Z. SCT-BKN CLOUD DECKS 5-8 KFT AGL
PRIMARILY NW OF KFHU-KCLT LINE WITH ISOLATED -SHRA/TS THROUGH
25/03Z. LIGHT WINDS LESS THAN 10 KTS...THEN SWLY TO WLY WINDS OF 12-
20 KTS WITH OCCASIONAL GUSTS TO 30 KTS THIS AFTERNOON WITH THE
HIGHEST WIND SPEEDS SOUTH AND EAST OF KTUS. CLEARING SKIES ALONG
WITH TYPICAL DIURNAL WINDS DEVELOPING AFTER 25/03Z. AVIATION
DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR TAF AMENDMENTS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...ISOLATED SHOWERS...POSSIBLY A THUNDERSTORM...FROM
TUCSON WEST AND NORTH TODAY. IN ADDITION...BREEZY WEST TO SOUTHWEST
WINDS OF 15 TO 20 MPH WITH AN OCCASIONAL GUST TO 35 MPH WILL DEVELOP
AGAIN THIS AFTERNOON. THE STRONGEST WINDS WILL OCCUR SOUTH AND EAST
OF TUCSON. ANY SHOWERS OR STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING BRIEF
GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS. DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TONIGHT AND
SATURDAY.

THEREAFTER...ANOTHER STORM SYSTEM WILL APPROACH THE REGION WHICH
WILL BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF ELEVATED WINDS AND A CHANCE OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY. THIS AREA OF
DISTURBED WEATHER WILL QUICKLY EXIT THE AREA RESULTING IN DRY
CONDITIONS RETURNING SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THE END OF NEXT WEEK.

A SUBSTANTIAL WARMING TREND IS ANTICIPATED STARTING MONDAY...WITH
CURRENT INDICATIONS POINTING TO HIGH TEMPERATURES INCREASING TO 6-12
DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL BY THE END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...YOUTUBE...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/TUCSON



000
FXUS65 KTWC 241553
AFDTWC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ
850 AM MST FRI APR 24 2015

.SYNOPSIS...A WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE STATE
TODAY...RESULTING IN A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY
FROM TUCSON WEST AND NORTH. DRY CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AREA-WIDE ON
SATURDAY. A STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL THEN MOVE INTO THE
REGION SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY. THIS SYSTEM WILL BRING GUSTY
WINDS...COOLER TEMPERATURES AND A GOOD CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS TO THE EASTERN HALF OF SOUTHERN ARIZONA
SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY. DRY CONDITIONS WILL RETURN TO START THE
WORK WEEK...ALONG WITH A STRONG WARMING TREND TUESDAY THROUGH
THURSDAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...ISOLATED SHOWERS HAVE DEVELOPED THIS MORNING AS UPPER
LEVEL TROF MOVES ACROSS THE AREA. LATEST HRRR RUNS INDICATE THAT
ISOLATED SHOWERS WILL BE AROUND MAINLY FROM TUCSON WEST AND NORTH
INTO THE AFTERNOON HOURS. HAVE UPDATED THE FORECAST FOR THIS MORNING
TIME FRAME TO ADD ISOLATED SHOWERS...MAINLY FROM TUCSON WEST AND
NORTH...AND WILL CONTINUE TO LOOK AT NEW MODEL DATA FOR THE
AFTERNOON PART OF THE TODAYS FORECAST SHORTLY.

&&

.AVIATION...VALID THRU 25/18Z. SCT-BKN CLOUD DECKS 5-8 KFT AGL
PRIMARILY NW OF KFHU-KCLT LINE WITH ISOLATED -SHRA/TS THROUGH
25/03Z. LIGHT WINDS LESS THAN 10 KTS...THEN SWLY TO WLY WINDS OF 12-
20 KTS WITH OCCASIONAL GUSTS TO 30 KTS THIS AFTERNOON WITH THE
HIGHEST WIND SPEEDS SOUTH AND EAST OF KTUS. CLEARING SKIES ALONG
WITH TYPICAL DIURNAL WINDS DEVELOPING AFTER 25/03Z. AVIATION
DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR TAF AMENDMENTS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...ISOLATED SHOWERS...POSSIBLY A THUNDERSTORM...FROM
TUCSON WEST AND NORTH TODAY. IN ADDITION...BREEZY WEST TO SOUTHWEST
WINDS OF 15 TO 20 MPH WITH AN OCCASIONAL GUST TO 35 MPH WILL DEVELOP
AGAIN THIS AFTERNOON. THE STRONGEST WINDS WILL OCCUR SOUTH AND EAST
OF TUCSON. ANY SHOWERS OR STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING BRIEF
GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS. DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TONIGHT AND
SATURDAY.

THEREAFTER...ANOTHER STORM SYSTEM WILL APPROACH THE REGION WHICH
WILL BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF ELEVATED WINDS AND A CHANCE OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY. THIS AREA OF
DISTURBED WEATHER WILL QUICKLY EXIT THE AREA RESULTING IN DRY
CONDITIONS RETURNING SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THE END OF NEXT WEEK.

A SUBSTANTIAL WARMING TREND IS ANTICIPATED STARTING MONDAY...WITH
CURRENT INDICATIONS POINTING TO HIGH TEMPERATURES INCREASING TO 6-12
DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL BY THE END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...YOUTUBE...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/TUCSON




000
FXUS65 KFGZ 241551
AFDFGZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ
851 AM MST FRI APR 24 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
THE CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TODAY AS A
WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM SLOWLY EXITS THE STATE. A STRONGER SYSTEM
WILL APPROACH LATE SATURDAY AND SUNDAY BRINGING WINDY AND COLDER
CONDITIONS...ALONG WITH A GOOD CHANCE OF RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS. MUCH
WARMER AND DRIER WEATHER WILL ARRIVE NEXT WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
LIGHT SHOWER ACTIVITY HAS EXPANDED ACROSS CENTRAL ARIZONA THIS
MORNING WHICH IS IN LINE WITH THE CURRENT FORECAST OF SCATTERED
SHOWERS THROUGH THE DAY. THE MORE BROAD TROUGH IS OVERHEAD THIS
MORNING AND WILL SLOWLY MOVE EAST TODAY WHILE ANOTHER WEAK
DISTURBANCE APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. EXPECT AN INCREASE IN SHOWER
ACTIVITY WITH DAYTIME HEATING THIS AFTERNOON. PRECIPITATION
AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN LIGHT...GENERALLY A TENTH OF AN
INCH OR LESS. PLEASE SEE THE PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOR DETAILS ON A
STRONGER WEATHER SYSTEM THIS WEEKEND.

&&

.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION /505 AM MST/...
A TROUGH IS LOCATED OVER CENTRAL ARIZONA THIS MORNING
WITH A FEW SHOWERS AND AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM FROM SOUTHERN APACHE
AND NAVAJO COUNTIES INTO SOUTHEAST ARIZONA. THIS TROUGH WILL SHIFT
EAST OF THE STATE BY THIS AFTERNOON, BUT INCREASINGLY MOIST WESTERLY
FLOW DEVELOPS TODAY WHICH SHOULD OFFSET THE WARMING ALOFT. SO EXPECT
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS LATER THIS AFTERNOON INTO
EARLY EVENING, MOSTLY DIMINISHING TONIGHT.

A COLDER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES INTO THE SOUTHWEST OVER THE
WEEKEND BRINGING A GOOD CHANCE FOR RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS WITH
COLDER TEMPERATURES. THE DEEPENING LOW DIVES SOUTH TOWARD ARIZONA
ON SATURDAY AND PUSHES A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT
THROUGH EARLY SUNDAY. THIS SYSTEM HAS MORE DYNAMIC LIFT AND MOISTURE
TO WORK WITH RESULTING IN HIGH CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION. THE
COLDEST AIR LOOKS TO ARRIVE LATE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING
WHEN SNOW LEVELS WILL DROP TO THE 6500-7000 FOOT RANGE AND SOME
LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS IN THE MOUNTAINOUS AREAS WILL BE POSSIBLE.
LATEST FORECASTS ARE FOR A TRACE TO 2" OF SNOW IN THE 6500-8000 FOOT
ELEVATION RANGE, WITH HIGHER AMOUNTS OVER MOUNTAIN PEAKS. LATEST
MODEL DATA NOW INDICATES A BIT HEAVIER PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS
COMPARED TO YESTERDAY`S RUNS. TOTAL LIQUID EQUIVALENT FROM SATURDAY
THROUGH SUNDAY IS FORECAST TO BE IN THE 0.30" TO 0.60" RANGE FOR THE
HIGHER ELEVATIONS ABOVE 5000 FEET, LOCALLY HEAVIER ALONG THE FAVORED
AREAS OF THE MOGOLLON RIM AND WHITE MTNS. LOWER ELEVATIONS COULD
PICK UP 0.10" TO 0.30". INSTABILITY ALONG/AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT
SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING IS ALSO LIKELY TO RESULT IN SOME
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY, SOME WITH GUSTY WINDS.

THE LOW HEADS EAST MONDAY WHILE DRIER AND WARMER WEATHER QUICKLY
RETURN UNDER BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE. TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO
WARM UP TO ABOUT 10 DEGREES ABOVE AVERAGE BY EARLY TO MIDDLE
PORTIONS OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...
FOR THE 18Z PACKAGE...EXPECT VFR/MVFR CONDITIONS WITH
CU/TCU/SC WITH BASES FROM 3-5KFT AGL...SCT BASES 1-3KFT AGL. SCT
-SHRA AND -TSRA THROUGH THE PERIOD...BUT ESPECIALLY FROM 18Z-02Z
TODAY. SFC WINDS SW 15-25G30KTS 18Z-02Z. BRIEF IFR CONDITIONS IN
THE HEAVIER SHOWERS...SNOW PELLETS POSSIBLE AT HIGHER ELEVATIONS.
AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR TAF AMENDMENTS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...EXPECT RELATIVELY COOL AND BREEZY CONDITIONS TODAY
AND SATURDAY AS A WEAK TROUGH MOVES THROUGH THE AREA. MOISTURE HAS
INCREASED FROM YESTERDAY AND THIS WILL LEAD TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS. MAINLY LIGHT PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS ARE
EXPECTED.

SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...A STRONGER AND COLDER TROUGH WILL MOVE
SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE GREAT BASIN SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY. THIS
STORM WILL BRING WIDESPREAD LIGHT RAINFALL AND SOME HIGHER ELEVATION
SNOW TO THE AREA THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING. GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL
ABRUPTLY SWITCH TO THE NORTHWEST BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON. THE COLD
TEMPERATURES ON SUNDAY WILL REBOUND A BIT ON MONDAY...WITH A
SIGNIFICANT WARMING TREND EXPECTED FOR THE REMAINDER OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC.........MCS/JJ
AVIATION.......PETERSON
FIRE WEATHER...MAS/PETERSON

FOR NORTHERN ARIZONA WEATHER INFORMATION VISIT
WEATHER.GOV/FLAGSTAFF






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