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000
FXUS65 KTWC 050402
AFDTWC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ
900 PM MST WED MAY 4 2016

.SYNOPSIS...A PACIFIC STORM SYSTEM WILL BRING WINDY CONDITIONS WITH
AREAS OF BLOWING DUST THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. EXPECT COOLER TEMPERATURES
AND A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THIS WEEKEND. DRY
CONDITIONS WITH A WARMING TREND WILL THEN OCCUR EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...CLEAR SKIES PREVAIL ACROSS MUCH OF SE ARIZONA AT THIS
TIME EXCEPT FOR A FEW MID-LEVEL CLOUDS ACROSS SE PINAL/WRN GRAHAM/NRN
COCHISE COUNTIES. SURFACE WINDS HAD DIMINISHED TO LESS THAN 10 MPH
ACROSS MUCH OF THIS FORECAST AREA AS WELL. HOWEVER...FORT HUACHUCA
MEASURED A SUSTAINED WIND SPEED OF 20 MPH FROM THE SOUTHWEST VALID
830 PM MST.

CLEAR SKIES OR MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES WILL OCCUR THE REST OF TONIGHT...
AS THE 05/00Z NAM/GFS DEPICT THE AXIS OF MID-LEVEL MOISTURE WILL
TRANSLATE EWD INTO WRN NEW MEXICO BY DAYBREAK THUR. A FEW CIRRIFORM
CLOUDS MAY ENCROACH UPON WRN SECTIONS BY EARLY THUR MORNING.
OCCASIONALLY GUSTY SOUTH-TO-SOUTHWEST WINDS MAY OCCUR LATE TONIGHT...
PARTICULARLY IN THE FAVORED WIND PRONE LOCALES FOR THIS DIRECTIONAL
COMPONENT SUCH AS FORT HUACHUCA AND SIERRA VISTA.

WIND SPEEDS WILL THEN INCREASE AREA-WIDE LATER THUR MORNING...AND
ESPECIALLY FROM TUCSON WWD INTO THE WRN DESERTS...AHEAD OF A DEEP
UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM CENTERED JUST WEST OF THE SRN
CALIFORNIA COAST. THE MAIN CONCERN THUR AFTERNOON AND EARLY THUR
EVENING WILL BE AREAS OF BLOWING DUST THAT MAY POTENTIALLY IMPACT
TRAVEL DUE TO RESTRICTED VISIBILITIES. IN ADDITION...THE COMBINATION
OF THESE GUSTY SOUTH-TO-SOUTHWEST WINDS...LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY AND
A HIGH FIRE DANGER RATING WILL CREATE CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER
CONDITIONS. A RED FLAG WARNING IS IN EFFECT GENERALLY FROM TUCSON
WESTWARD INTO WRN PIMA/SOUTH CENTRAL PINAL COUNTIES FROM NOON TO 8
PM MST. PLEASE REFER TO AWIPS PRODUCT PHXRFWTWC /WMO HEADER WWUS85
KTWC/ AS WELL AS THE FIRE WEATHER SECTION IN THIS PRODUCT FOR
ADDITIONAL INFORMATION.

&&

.AVIATION...VALID THRU 05/23Z.
CLEAR SKIES TO SCATTERED CLOUDS ABOVE 25K FT MSL INTO THURSDAY
EVENING. A FEW CLOUDS AROUND 15K FT MSL WILL ALSO OCCUR MAINLY EAST
OF KTUS THRU THE PERIOD. OTHERWISE...SURFACE WIND THE REST OF
TONIGHT WILL GENERALLY BE VARIABLE IN DIRECTION LESS THAN 10 KTS.
HOWEVER...SOUTHWEST WIND AT 10-20 KTS SHOULD OCCUR IN THE VICINITY
OF KFHU. SURFACE WIND THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY EVENING WILL BE SLY/
SWLY AT 12-25 KTS WITH GUSTS TO NEAR 35 KTS. THE STRONGEST SPEEDS
WILL OCCUR THURSDAY AFTERNOON. AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR
TAF AMENDMENTS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...A RED FLAG WARNING IS IN EFFECT FROM NOON TO 8 PM MST
THURSDAY FOR FIRE WEATHER ZONES 150 AND 151. A RED FLAG WARNING IS
ALSO IN EFFECT FROM NOON TO 8 PM MST FRIDAY FOR FIRE WEATHER ZONES
151...152 AND THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF 153. THE COMBINATION OF STRONG
AND GUSTY WINDS...LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY AND A HIGH FIRE DANGER
RATING WILL CREATE CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS. 20-FOOT WINDS
WILL BE FROM THE SOUTH ON THURSDAY...AND SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST ON
FRIDAY.

COOLER TEMPERATURES AND INCREASED MOISTURE WILL THEN MOVE INTO THE
AREA LATE FRIDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THIS WILL RESULT IN A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF SHOWERS FOR MOST LOCATIONS ALONG WITH BREEZES PERSISTING
THROUGH THE WEEKEND. A FEW SHOWERS MAY LINGER ACROSS THE WHITE
MOUNTAINS MONDAY. OTHERWISE...DRY CONDITIONS WITH A WARMING TREND
WILL PREVAIL MONDAY THROUGH NEXT WEDNESDAY.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION /305 PM MST/...OUR STRETCH OF RELATIVELY BENIGN
WEATHER WILL BE INTERRUPTED THURSDAY AND INTO THE WEEKEND BY A
LARGE UPPER LOW CURRENTLY SPINNING JUST OFF THE CALIFORNIA COASTLINE.
OUT AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM...THE MID-LEVEL GRADIENT WILL CONTINUE TO
TIGHTEN...WHICH WILL RESULT IN STRONG SOUTHERLY WINDS OVERSPREADING
THE REGION THURSDAY. THE MAIN CORE OF STRONG WINDS WILL THEN SHIFT
TO THE EAST ON FRIDAY...WITH EVEN STRONGER WIND SPEEDS EXPECTED FROM
ROUGHLY TUCSON AND POINTS EAST. A WIND ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED IN
SUBSEQUENT FORECASTS FOR PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA ON FRIDAY.
BASED ON THE COMBINATION OF STRONG WINDS AND DRY AIR AT THE
SURFACE...WE HAVE UPGRADED THE FIRE WEATHER WATCHES ON THURSDAY
AND FRIDAY AFTERNOONS TO RED FLAG WARNINGS. FOR MORE INFORMATION
PLEASE SEE THE FIRE WEATHER DISCUSSION BELOW.

IN ADDITION TO FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS...WE WILL NEED TO WATCH OUT FOR
BLOWING DUST. RECENT VOLUMETRIC SOIL MOISTURE MEASUREMENTS FROM
THE NASA SPORT LAND INFORMATION SYSTEM SHOW VALUES IN THE 9 TO 13
PERCENT RANGE ACROSS MANY OF OUR DUST PRONE LOCATIONS. THESE ARE
CERTAINLY LOW ENOUGH TO CAUSE ISSUES WITH WINDS GUSTING TO 35 TO
50 MPH.

AN OVERALL DEARTH OF MOISTURE AND GENERALLY MODEST MID-LEVEL HEIGHT
FALLS MEAN PRECIP CHANCES WILL REMAIN RELATIVELY LOW WITH THIS
SYSTEM. STILL...THE PRESENCE OF NON-ZERO BUOYANCY (MUCAPE VALUES OF
100-300 J/KG) AND PLENTY OF VORT LOBES ROTATING AROUND THE PERIPHERY
OF THE UPPER LOW ARE ENOUGH TO WARRANT SLIGHT CHANCE POPS WEST OF
TUCSON FRIDAY EVENING...AND THEN MAINLY NORTH AND EAST OF TUCSON
THROUGH THE WEEKEND. WE SHOULD HANG ONTO ENOUGH INSTABILITY TO KEEP A
SLIGHT CHANCE POPS GOING IN THE WHITE MOUNTAINS ON MONDAY AS WELL.
AS THIS LOW MOVES EAST NEXT WEEK...HEIGHTS WILL RISE UNDER SHORTWAVE
RIDGING WHICH WILL RESULT IN ANOTHER WARMING TREND INTO THE MIDDLE OF
NEXT WEEK.

&&

.TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
    RED FLAG WARNING FROM NOON TO 8 PM MST THURSDAY FOR AZZ150-151.

    RED FLAG WARNING FROM NOON TO 8 PM MST FRIDAY FOR AZZ151>153.

&&

$$

VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...YOUTUBE...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/TUCSON

DISCUSSION...FRANCIS
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...CARLAW




000
FXUS65 KTWC 050402
AFDTWC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ
900 PM MST WED MAY 4 2016

.SYNOPSIS...A PACIFIC STORM SYSTEM WILL BRING WINDY CONDITIONS WITH
AREAS OF BLOWING DUST THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. EXPECT COOLER TEMPERATURES
AND A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THIS WEEKEND. DRY
CONDITIONS WITH A WARMING TREND WILL THEN OCCUR EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...CLEAR SKIES PREVAIL ACROSS MUCH OF SE ARIZONA AT THIS
TIME EXCEPT FOR A FEW MID-LEVEL CLOUDS ACROSS SE PINAL/WRN GRAHAM/NRN
COCHISE COUNTIES. SURFACE WINDS HAD DIMINISHED TO LESS THAN 10 MPH
ACROSS MUCH OF THIS FORECAST AREA AS WELL. HOWEVER...FORT HUACHUCA
MEASURED A SUSTAINED WIND SPEED OF 20 MPH FROM THE SOUTHWEST VALID
830 PM MST.

CLEAR SKIES OR MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES WILL OCCUR THE REST OF TONIGHT...
AS THE 05/00Z NAM/GFS DEPICT THE AXIS OF MID-LEVEL MOISTURE WILL
TRANSLATE EWD INTO WRN NEW MEXICO BY DAYBREAK THUR. A FEW CIRRIFORM
CLOUDS MAY ENCROACH UPON WRN SECTIONS BY EARLY THUR MORNING.
OCCASIONALLY GUSTY SOUTH-TO-SOUTHWEST WINDS MAY OCCUR LATE TONIGHT...
PARTICULARLY IN THE FAVORED WIND PRONE LOCALES FOR THIS DIRECTIONAL
COMPONENT SUCH AS FORT HUACHUCA AND SIERRA VISTA.

WIND SPEEDS WILL THEN INCREASE AREA-WIDE LATER THUR MORNING...AND
ESPECIALLY FROM TUCSON WWD INTO THE WRN DESERTS...AHEAD OF A DEEP
UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM CENTERED JUST WEST OF THE SRN
CALIFORNIA COAST. THE MAIN CONCERN THUR AFTERNOON AND EARLY THUR
EVENING WILL BE AREAS OF BLOWING DUST THAT MAY POTENTIALLY IMPACT
TRAVEL DUE TO RESTRICTED VISIBILITIES. IN ADDITION...THE COMBINATION
OF THESE GUSTY SOUTH-TO-SOUTHWEST WINDS...LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY AND
A HIGH FIRE DANGER RATING WILL CREATE CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER
CONDITIONS. A RED FLAG WARNING IS IN EFFECT GENERALLY FROM TUCSON
WESTWARD INTO WRN PIMA/SOUTH CENTRAL PINAL COUNTIES FROM NOON TO 8
PM MST. PLEASE REFER TO AWIPS PRODUCT PHXRFWTWC /WMO HEADER WWUS85
KTWC/ AS WELL AS THE FIRE WEATHER SECTION IN THIS PRODUCT FOR
ADDITIONAL INFORMATION.

&&

.AVIATION...VALID THRU 05/23Z.
CLEAR SKIES TO SCATTERED CLOUDS ABOVE 25K FT MSL INTO THURSDAY
EVENING. A FEW CLOUDS AROUND 15K FT MSL WILL ALSO OCCUR MAINLY EAST
OF KTUS THRU THE PERIOD. OTHERWISE...SURFACE WIND THE REST OF
TONIGHT WILL GENERALLY BE VARIABLE IN DIRECTION LESS THAN 10 KTS.
HOWEVER...SOUTHWEST WIND AT 10-20 KTS SHOULD OCCUR IN THE VICINITY
OF KFHU. SURFACE WIND THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY EVENING WILL BE SLY/
SWLY AT 12-25 KTS WITH GUSTS TO NEAR 35 KTS. THE STRONGEST SPEEDS
WILL OCCUR THURSDAY AFTERNOON. AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR
TAF AMENDMENTS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...A RED FLAG WARNING IS IN EFFECT FROM NOON TO 8 PM MST
THURSDAY FOR FIRE WEATHER ZONES 150 AND 151. A RED FLAG WARNING IS
ALSO IN EFFECT FROM NOON TO 8 PM MST FRIDAY FOR FIRE WEATHER ZONES
151...152 AND THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF 153. THE COMBINATION OF STRONG
AND GUSTY WINDS...LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY AND A HIGH FIRE DANGER
RATING WILL CREATE CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS. 20-FOOT WINDS
WILL BE FROM THE SOUTH ON THURSDAY...AND SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST ON
FRIDAY.

COOLER TEMPERATURES AND INCREASED MOISTURE WILL THEN MOVE INTO THE
AREA LATE FRIDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THIS WILL RESULT IN A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF SHOWERS FOR MOST LOCATIONS ALONG WITH BREEZES PERSISTING
THROUGH THE WEEKEND. A FEW SHOWERS MAY LINGER ACROSS THE WHITE
MOUNTAINS MONDAY. OTHERWISE...DRY CONDITIONS WITH A WARMING TREND
WILL PREVAIL MONDAY THROUGH NEXT WEDNESDAY.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION /305 PM MST/...OUR STRETCH OF RELATIVELY BENIGN
WEATHER WILL BE INTERRUPTED THURSDAY AND INTO THE WEEKEND BY A
LARGE UPPER LOW CURRENTLY SPINNING JUST OFF THE CALIFORNIA COASTLINE.
OUT AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM...THE MID-LEVEL GRADIENT WILL CONTINUE TO
TIGHTEN...WHICH WILL RESULT IN STRONG SOUTHERLY WINDS OVERSPREADING
THE REGION THURSDAY. THE MAIN CORE OF STRONG WINDS WILL THEN SHIFT
TO THE EAST ON FRIDAY...WITH EVEN STRONGER WIND SPEEDS EXPECTED FROM
ROUGHLY TUCSON AND POINTS EAST. A WIND ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED IN
SUBSEQUENT FORECASTS FOR PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA ON FRIDAY.
BASED ON THE COMBINATION OF STRONG WINDS AND DRY AIR AT THE
SURFACE...WE HAVE UPGRADED THE FIRE WEATHER WATCHES ON THURSDAY
AND FRIDAY AFTERNOONS TO RED FLAG WARNINGS. FOR MORE INFORMATION
PLEASE SEE THE FIRE WEATHER DISCUSSION BELOW.

IN ADDITION TO FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS...WE WILL NEED TO WATCH OUT FOR
BLOWING DUST. RECENT VOLUMETRIC SOIL MOISTURE MEASUREMENTS FROM
THE NASA SPORT LAND INFORMATION SYSTEM SHOW VALUES IN THE 9 TO 13
PERCENT RANGE ACROSS MANY OF OUR DUST PRONE LOCATIONS. THESE ARE
CERTAINLY LOW ENOUGH TO CAUSE ISSUES WITH WINDS GUSTING TO 35 TO
50 MPH.

AN OVERALL DEARTH OF MOISTURE AND GENERALLY MODEST MID-LEVEL HEIGHT
FALLS MEAN PRECIP CHANCES WILL REMAIN RELATIVELY LOW WITH THIS
SYSTEM. STILL...THE PRESENCE OF NON-ZERO BUOYANCY (MUCAPE VALUES OF
100-300 J/KG) AND PLENTY OF VORT LOBES ROTATING AROUND THE PERIPHERY
OF THE UPPER LOW ARE ENOUGH TO WARRANT SLIGHT CHANCE POPS WEST OF
TUCSON FRIDAY EVENING...AND THEN MAINLY NORTH AND EAST OF TUCSON
THROUGH THE WEEKEND. WE SHOULD HANG ONTO ENOUGH INSTABILITY TO KEEP A
SLIGHT CHANCE POPS GOING IN THE WHITE MOUNTAINS ON MONDAY AS WELL.
AS THIS LOW MOVES EAST NEXT WEEK...HEIGHTS WILL RISE UNDER SHORTWAVE
RIDGING WHICH WILL RESULT IN ANOTHER WARMING TREND INTO THE MIDDLE OF
NEXT WEEK.

&&

.TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
    RED FLAG WARNING FROM NOON TO 8 PM MST THURSDAY FOR AZZ150-151.

    RED FLAG WARNING FROM NOON TO 8 PM MST FRIDAY FOR AZZ151>153.

&&

$$

VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...YOUTUBE...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/TUCSON

DISCUSSION...FRANCIS
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...CARLAW



  [top]

000
FXUS65 KFGZ 050358
AFDFGZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ
858 PM MST WED MAY 4 2016

.SYNOPSIS...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING DRY CONDITIONS AND WARMER
TEMPERATURES THROUGH THURSDAY. A LARGE WEATHER SYSTEM WILL BRING
GUSTY SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...WITH COOL AND
UNSETTLED CONDITIONS FROM FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND.

&&

.DISCUSSION...SOME OF THE WARMEST TEMPERATURES SO FAR THIS YEAR
WERE OBSERVED ACROSS NORTHERN ARIZONA ON WEDNESDAY WITH READINGS
WELL INTO THE 70S IN THE MOUNTAINS, 80S TO NEAR 90 VALLEYS. FOR
TONIGHT, A FEW HIGH CLOUDS AND SEASONABLE LOW TEMPERATURES ARE IN
STORE. OVERALL THE CURRENT FORECAST PACKAGE IS ON TRACK WITH NO
UPDATES UNTIL MORNING.

A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE CLOSER TO ARIZONA ON THURSDAY.
WARM TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE, BUT WIND SPEEDS WILL INCREASE.
GUSTS OF 40 TO 50 MPH ARE LIKELY ACROSS MUCH OF COCONINO AND
YAVAPAI COUNTIES, AND A WIND ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED FROM 11 AM
UNTIL 8 PM. A MINOR INCREASE IN MOISTURE WILL BRING A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF A SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM NEAR THE NEW MEXICO STATE LINE.
WINDS WILL REMAIN BREEZY THURSDAY NIGHT.

FRIDAY...THE STRONGEST WINDS SHIFT TO EASTERN ARIZONA AS THE LOW
MOVES CLOSER, AND ANOTHER WIND ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED THERE.
INCREASING MOISTURE AND LARGE SCALE LIFT WILL BRING A BETTER
CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS, MAINLY ACROSS COCONINO COUNTY
NORTHWEST OF FLAGSTAFF DURING THE AFTERNOON. FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH
SATURDAY NIGHT...THE LOW MOVES SLOWLY ACROSS THE STATE WITH A
CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND MAINLY AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS. SNOW LEVELS
COULD DROP TO 7000 FT OR JUST BELOW AT TIMES WHICH INCLUDES
FLAGSTAFF.

BY SUNDAY...MODEL FORECASTS ARE CONSISTENT IN MOVING THE LOW EAST
OF STATE WITH A LINGERING CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS OVER NORTHERN ARIZONA. SNOW LEVELS SHOULD RISE TO
7500 FT OR HIGHER AND SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL BE MORE DIURNAL IN
NATURE, DRIVEN BY DAYTIME HEATING. A WARMING TREND SHOULD ARRIVE
MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY WITH SLOWLY DRYING CONDITIONS.

&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 06Z PACKAGE...LOOK FOR VFR CONDITIONS UNDER HIGH
CLOUDS OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. LIGHT WINDS OVERNIGHT WILL STRENGTHEN
TO SOUTH-SOUTHWEST AT 15-25 KTS GUSTING TO 35 KTS LATE THURSDAY
MORNING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR
TAF AMENDMENTS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...EXPECT DRY AND WARM CONDITIONS THURSDAY.
BREEZY SOUTH-SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL INCREASE THURSDAY. NEAR CRITICAL
FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE ON THURSDAY. A COLD FRONT
WILL IMPACT THE AREA FRIDAY BRING COLDER TEMPERATURES AND MOISTURE
TO THE AREA.

SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY...COOL TEMPERATURES AND SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED
TO CONTINUE OVER NORTHERN ARIZONA AS THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM SLOWLY
MOVES ACROSS THE AREA.


&&

.FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...WIND ADVISORY FROM 11 AM TO 8 PM MST
THURSDAY FOR AZZ004>008-012- 015.

&&

$$

PUBLIC...MCCOLLUM/JJ
AVIATION...MCCOLLUM/SUK


FOR NORTHERN ARIZONA WEATHER INFORMATION VISIT
WEATHER.GOV/FLAGSTAFF



  [top]

000
FXUS65 KPSR 050340
AFDPSR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PHOENIX AZ
840 PM MST WED MAY 4 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A SLOW MOVING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE INTO THE SOUTHWEST
DURING THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK YIELDING MUCH COOLER WEATHER.
AFTERNOON HIGHS IN THE MIDDLE 70S TO LOWER 80S WILL BE COMMON
THROUGH THE WEEKEND. BREEZY CONDITIONS WILL ALSO PREVAIL THURSDAY
AND FRIDAY WITH LOCALIZED BLOWING DUST. ALONG WITH THE COOLER
TEMPERATURES...THERE WILL ALSO BE CHANCES FOR LIGHT RAIN LATE FRIDAY
AND SATURDAY ALONG WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS.


&&

.DISCUSSION...
RELATIVELY STRONG UPPER LEVEL RIDGE CONTINUED TO SLIDE EAST TODAY
AHEAD OF A VIGOROUS AND COLD UPPER LOW DEVELOPING JUST OFF THE
CALIFORNIA COAST. DESPITE THE RIDGE AXIS NOW LOCATED NEAR THE NEW
MEXICO BORDER...H5 HEIGHTS OVER THE CENTRAL DESERTS REMAINED HIGH
AND ABOVE 580DM...AND BREEZY SOUTHERLY WINDS OVER THE CENTRAL
DESERTS REALLY ALLOWED HIGH TEMPERATURES TO CLIMB THIS AFTERNOON.
PHOENIX HIT THE FIRST 100 DEGREE READING OF THE YEAR TODAY WITH A
HIGH OF 102 DEGREES...ALTHOUGH THIS MARK WAS STILL SEVERAL DEGREES
SHY OF THE RECORD. IR IMAGERY AT 8 PM SHOWED SOME HIGH CLOUDS
SPREADING INTO SERN CALIFORNIA BUT OVERALL SKIES OVER THE LOWER
DESERTS WERE MOSTLY CLEAR TO CLEAR. WINDS CONTINUED TO BE LOCALLY
BREEZY AND FAVORING THE SOUTHWEST EARLY THIS EVENING...BUT WE EXPECT
THEM TO GRADUALLY TAPER OFF AS THE NIGHT WEARS ON AND EFFECTS OF
MIXING DECREASE. FOR THE REST OF TONIGHT EXPECT GENERALLY CLEAR
SKIES ALONG WITH DECREASING BREEZINESS AND MILD OVERNIGHT
TEMPERATURES. CURRENT FORECASTS LOOK TO BE IN GOOD SHAPE AND NO
UPDATES ARE NEEDED AT THIS TIME.

.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION... SHORTWAVE RIDGING CONTINUES TO HOLD OVER THE
SWRN CONUS AS A SLOW MOVING NEGATIVE HEIGHT ANOMALY EASES TOWARDS
SRN CALIFORNIA. 12Z KTWC SOUNDING DATA INDICATED HEIGHTS AND
TEMPERATURES ALOFT BETWEEN THE 75TH AND 90TH PERCENTILE WHICH HAS
EQUATED TO WIDESPREAD AFTERNOON HIGHS ECLIPSING THE 100F THRESHOLD
(YET SEVERAL DEGREES SHORT OF RECORD TERRITORY). WITH CLEAR SKIES
AND LOW DEWPOINTS PREVAILING THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT...ONLY SOMEWHAT
ELEVATED WIND SPEEDS NEAR THE BOUNDARY LAYER AND WARMER ANTECEDENT
CONDITIONS WILL KEEP MORNING LOWS SLIGHTLY HIGHER THAN PERSISTENCE.

THE NORTH AMERICAN FLOW PATTERN WILL REMAIN LARGELY STALLED AND
CHARACTERIZED BY AN OMEGA BLOCK THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH ARIZONA
SITUATED UNDER THE UPSTREAM NEGATIVE HEIGHT ANOMALY. WITH THE SLOW
FORWARD PROGRESSION OF FEATURES OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS...HEIGHTS
WILL ONLY GRADUALLY COLLAPSE THURSDAY AFTERNOON YIELDING A LARGER
THAN TYPICAL THERMAL GRADIENT ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA...AND CENTRAL
ARIZONA ONLY 4-7F COOLER THAN TODAY. FAR MORE PRONOUNCED COOLING
WILL SPREAD ACROSS THE ENTIRE REGION FRIDAY-SUNDAY UNDER THE COLD
CORE ALOFT WITH HIGHS SOME 15F BELOW AVERAGE.

HOWEVER...THE GREATEST IMPACTS THURSDAY WILL RESULT FROM INCREASED
WIND GUSTS ALONG A TIGHTENED H8 GRADIENT/FRONTAL BOUNDARY. A NARROW
CORRIDOR OF SOUTHERLY GUSTS 30-35 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE FOR A SHORT
PERIOD LATE THURSDAY AFTERNOON ACROSS CNTRL/WRN ARIZONA WITH THE
USUAL BLOWING DUST LOCATIONS EXPERIENCING SOME REDUCED VISIBILITIES.
MAY NEED SOME LOCAL DUST ADVISORIES ONCE STRONGER WINDS ARE
MANIFESTED...BUT AT THIS POINT WIND SPEEDS ONLY FLIRT WITH WIND
ADVISORY CRITERIA. THE LARGEST IMPACT WILL LIKELY BE FIRE WEATHER
CONCERNS AS HUMIDITY VALUES FALL TOWARDS SINGLE DIGITS WITH FUELS
CONTINUING TO DRY.

THERE WILL ALSO BE A SERIES OF VORT LOBES ROTATING ABOUT LARGER
CIRCULATION CENTER. THE BEST OPPORTUNITY FOR SHOWERS CONTINUES TO
OCCUR ON FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY AS COOLER AIR ALOFT COMBINES WITH
SOME MODEST DYNAMICAL LIFT/MIDLEVEL FRONTOGENESIS. MODELS SUGGEST
SOME MODEST INSTABILITY (MLCAPES 100-200 J/KG) YIELDING A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS. THE FINAL VORTICTY LOBE ROTATES THROUGH
CNTRL ARIZONA SUNDAY THOUGH PREVAILING DEEP WESTERLY FLOW WILL
LIKELY DEFLECT THE BEST SHOWER OPPORTUNITY INTO HIGHER TERRAIN NORTH
AND EAST OF PHOENIX.

MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN DURING THE FIRST HALF OF THE NEXT WORKWEEK.
THIS WILL LEAD TO TEMPERATURES A FEW DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL BY
NEXT WEDNESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...
SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA INCLUDING KPHX...KIWA...AND KSDL... AS OF 8 PM
WINDS AT THE TAF SITES WERE BREEZY OUT OF GTHE SOUTHWEST...BUT WE
EXPECT THE WINDS TO SLOWLY TAPER OFF AND AFTER MIDNIGHT THEY SHOULD
BACK AGAIN AROUND TO THE SOUTHEAST AHEAD OF DEEP LOW ALONG THE CA
COAST. WE EXPECT SIMILAR WIND TRENDS AGAIN TOMORROW...BUT EVEN
STRONGER THAN TODAY AS GRADIENTS CONTINUE TO TIGHTEN. LOCALLY BREEZY
EAST/SOUTHEAST MORNING WINDS WILL STRENGTHEN AND BECOME MOSTLY
SOUTHERLY BY LATE THURSDAY MORNING WITH GUSTS IN EXCESS OF
20KT...THEN SHIFTING TOWARDS THE SOUTHWEST BY 21-22Z OR SO. WE MAY
SEE GUSTS APPROACHING 30KT IN THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING
THURSDAY IN THE PHOENIX AREA INCLUDING THE TAF SITES...BUT
CONFIDENCE IN THEM PRODUCING SIGNIFICANT BLOWING DUST AND ASSOCIATED
RESTRICTED VISIBILITIES REMAINS ON THE LOW SIDE FOR NOW. OTHERWISE
NO SIGNIFICANT CLOUD COVER NEXT 24 HOURS EXCEPT FOR SOME HIGH CLOUDS
AT TIMES.

SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA/SOUTHWEST ARIZONA INCLUDING KIPL AND KBLH...
BREEZY WINDS WILL DECREASE REST OF TONIGHT...FAVORING THE WEST AT
KIPL AND THE SOUTHWEST AT KBLH...WITH SPEEDS MOSTLY BELOW 12KT. ON
THURSDAY EXPECT WINDS TO INCREASE AGAIN...FAVORING THE SOUTH TO
SOUTHWEST AT BOTH TAF SITES...WITH GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 25KT POSSIBLE
AFTER 20Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON. ATTM DO NOT EXPECT ANY SIGNIFICANT
BLOWING DUST OR RESTRICTED VISIBILITIES AT THE TAF SITES THROUGH
THURDAY EVENING. OTHERWISE NO CLOUDS OF CONSEQUENCE...JUST SOME HIGH
LEVEL DECKS AT TIMES.

AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDED TAFS.


&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...
WITH A COOL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM STILL IN PLACE...EXPECT A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS SATURDAY MORNING AND WELL BELOW NORMAL
AFTERNOON HIGH TEMPERATURES ONLY IN THE UPPER 70S THROUGH
SUNDAY...AND INTO THE MID 80S ON MONDAY. EXPECT MINIMUM RELATIVE
HUMIDITIES IN THE 22 TO 28 PERCENT RANGE ON SATURDAY AND FALLING TO
THE UPPER TEENS TO LOW 20 PERCENT RANGE SUNDAY AND TO THE MID TO
UPPER TEENS BY MONDAY. OCCASIONALLY BREEZY SOUTHWEST WINDS CAN BE
EXPECTED EACH AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY...ESPECIALLY IN THE TONTO
FOOTHILLS AND S GILA COUNTY. ON TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...WARMER AND
DRIER WEATHER WILL PREVAIL WITH TEMPERATURES INCREASING TO NEAR
NORMAL OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL AND MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITIES
SETTLING INTO THE LOW TO MID TEENS BY WEDNESDAY.

&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED.

&&

.PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AZ...RED FLAG WARNING FROM 11 AM TO 8 PM MST THURSDAY FOR AZZ132-133.
CA...NONE.

&&

$$

VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/PHOENIX

DISCUSSION...CB
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...MO/AJ
AVIATION...CB
FIRE WEATHER...SAWTELLE




000
FXUS65 KTWC 042205
AFDTWC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ
305 PM MST WED MAY 4 2016

.SYNOPSIS...A PACIFIC STORM SYSTEM WILL BRING WINDY CONDITIONS TO
THE REGION TOMORROW AND FRIDAY...ALONG WITH COOLER TEMPERATURES
AND A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS THIS WEEKEND.

&&

.DISCUSSION...EARLY AFTERNOON VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS
JUST A FEW FAIR WEATHER CUMULUS BUBBLING OVER PARTS OF THE CWA
THIS AFTERNOON. SURFACE OBSERVATIONS INDICATE THAT GUSTY SOUTH TO
SOUTHEAST WINDS CONTINUE...BUT SHOULD BEGIN TO GRADUALLY SUBSIDE
LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

OUR STRETCH OF RELATIVELY BENIGN WEATHER WILL BE INTERRUPTED
TOMORROW AND INTO THE WEEKEND BY A LARGE UPPER LOW CURRENTLY
SPINNING JUST OFF THE CALIFORNIA COASTLINE. OUT AHEAD OF THIS
SYSTEM...THE MID-LEVEL GRADIENT WILL CONTINUE TO TIGHTEN...WHICH
WILL RESULT IN STRONG SOUTHERLY WINDS OVERSPREADING THE REGION
TOMORROW. THE MAIN CORE OF STRONG WINDS WILL THEN SHIFT TO THE
EAST ON FRIDAY...WITH EVEN STRONGER WIND SPEEDS EXPECTED FROM
ROUGHLY TUCSON AND POINTS EAST. A WIND ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED IN
SUBSEQUENT FORECASTS FOR PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA ON FRIDAY.
BASED ON THE COMBINATION OF STRONG WINDS AND DRY AIR AT THE
SURFACE...WE HAVE UPGRADED THE FIRE WEATHER WATCHES ON THURSDAY
AND FRIDAY AFTERNOONS TO RED FLAG WARNINGS. FOR MORE INFORMATION
PLEASE SEE THE FIRE WEATHER DISCUSSION BELOW.

IN ADDITION TO FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS...WE`LL NEED TO WATCH OUT FOR
BLOWING DUST. RECENT VOLUMETRIC SOIL MOISTURE MEASUREMENTS FROM
THE NASA SPORT LAND INFORMATION SYSTEM SHOW VALUES IN THE 9 TO 13
PERCENT RANGE ACROSS MANY OF OUR DUST PRONE LOCATIONS. THESE ARE
CERTAINLY LOW ENOUGH TO CAUSE ISSUES WITH WINDS GUSTING TO 35 TO
50 MPH.

AN OVERALL DEARTH OF MOISTURE AND GENERALLY MODEST MID-LEVEL
HEIGHT FALLS MEAN PRECIP CHANCES WILL REMAIN RELATIVELY LOW WITH
THIS SYSTEM. STILL...THE PRESENCE OF NON-ZERO BUOYANCY (MUCAPE
VALUES OF 100-300 J/KG) AND PLENTY OF VORT LOBES ROTATING AROUND
THE PERIPHERPY OF THE UPPER LOW ARE ENOUGH TO WARRANT SLIGHT
CHANCE POPS WEST OF TUCSON FRIDAY EVENING...AND THEN NORTH AND
EAST OF TUCSON THROUGH THE WEEKEND. WE SHOULD HANG ONTO ENOUGH
INSTABILITY TO KEEP SLIGHT CHANCE POPS GOING IN THE WHITE
MOUNTAINS ON MONDAY AS WELL.

AS THIS LOW MOVES EAST NEXT WEEK...HEIGHTS WILL RISE UNDER
SHORTWAVE RIDGING WHICH WILL RESULT IN ANOTHER WARMING TREND INTO
THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...VALID THRU 05/23Z.
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES WILL PREVAIL ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA...WITH
JUST A FEW TO SCT CLOUDS AT 12-15K FT AGL ESPECIALLY OVER THE
HIGHER TERRAIN. SURFACE WINDS ELY/SELY AT 10-17 KTS WITH GUSTS TO
AROUND 25 KTS THRU 05/03Z...THEN DIMINISHING SURFACE WIND THIS
EVENING...WITH SPEEDS GENERALLY LESS THAN 10 KTS THRU 05/14Z. AFT
05/14Z...INCREASING SURFACE WIND...WITH SLY/SWLY SURFACE WIND AT
20-25 KTS AND GUSTS TO AROUND 30-35 KTS AFT 05/18Z. AVIATION
DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR TAF AMENDMENTS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...GUSTY EAST TO SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL CONTINUE MAINLY
ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA FROM THE NEW MEXICO
BORDER TO TUCSON THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING HOURS TONIGHT.

STRONG AND GUSTY SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED THURSDAY
AND FRIDAY AS A STORM SYSTEM MOVES INTO THE REGION FROM THE WEST.
THE STRONGEST WINDS ON THURSDAY WILL MAINLY BE FROM THE TUCSON
METRO AREA WESTWARD...WITH THE CORE OF THE STRONG WINDS SHIFTING
EASTWARD FROM TUCSON INTO COCHISE COUNTY AND AREAS ADJACENT TO THE
NEW MEXICO BORDER ON FRIDAY. THEREFORE...THE FIRE WEATHER WATCHES
ON THURSDAY (FOR FIRE WEATHER ZONES 150 AND 151) AND FRIDAY (FOR
FIRE WEATHER ZONES 151...152 AND SOUTHERN 153) HAVE BOTH BEEN
UPGRADED TO A RED FLAG WARNING FOR STRONG AND GUSTY WINDS...LOW
RELATIVE HUMIDITIES AND A HIGH FIRE DANGER RATING. 20-FOOT WINDS
WILL BE FROM THE SOUTH ON THURSDAY...AND SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST ON
FRIDAY.

COOLER TEMPERATURES AND INCREASED MOISTURE WILL THEN MOVE INTO THE
AREA LATE FRIDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THIS WILL RESULT IN A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF SHOWERS FOR MOST LOCATIONS ALONG WITH BREEZES PERSISTING
THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
RED FLAG WARNING FROM NOON TO 8 PM MST FRIDAY FOR AZZ151>153.

RED FLAG WARNING FROM NOON TO 8 PM MST THURSDAY FOR AZZ150-151.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...CARLAW
AVIATION/FIRE WEATHER...ZELL

VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...YOUTUBE...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/TUCSON




000
FXUS65 KTWC 042205
AFDTWC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ
305 PM MST WED MAY 4 2016

.SYNOPSIS...A PACIFIC STORM SYSTEM WILL BRING WINDY CONDITIONS TO
THE REGION TOMORROW AND FRIDAY...ALONG WITH COOLER TEMPERATURES
AND A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS THIS WEEKEND.

&&

.DISCUSSION...EARLY AFTERNOON VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS
JUST A FEW FAIR WEATHER CUMULUS BUBBLING OVER PARTS OF THE CWA
THIS AFTERNOON. SURFACE OBSERVATIONS INDICATE THAT GUSTY SOUTH TO
SOUTHEAST WINDS CONTINUE...BUT SHOULD BEGIN TO GRADUALLY SUBSIDE
LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

OUR STRETCH OF RELATIVELY BENIGN WEATHER WILL BE INTERRUPTED
TOMORROW AND INTO THE WEEKEND BY A LARGE UPPER LOW CURRENTLY
SPINNING JUST OFF THE CALIFORNIA COASTLINE. OUT AHEAD OF THIS
SYSTEM...THE MID-LEVEL GRADIENT WILL CONTINUE TO TIGHTEN...WHICH
WILL RESULT IN STRONG SOUTHERLY WINDS OVERSPREADING THE REGION
TOMORROW. THE MAIN CORE OF STRONG WINDS WILL THEN SHIFT TO THE
EAST ON FRIDAY...WITH EVEN STRONGER WIND SPEEDS EXPECTED FROM
ROUGHLY TUCSON AND POINTS EAST. A WIND ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED IN
SUBSEQUENT FORECASTS FOR PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA ON FRIDAY.
BASED ON THE COMBINATION OF STRONG WINDS AND DRY AIR AT THE
SURFACE...WE HAVE UPGRADED THE FIRE WEATHER WATCHES ON THURSDAY
AND FRIDAY AFTERNOONS TO RED FLAG WARNINGS. FOR MORE INFORMATION
PLEASE SEE THE FIRE WEATHER DISCUSSION BELOW.

IN ADDITION TO FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS...WE`LL NEED TO WATCH OUT FOR
BLOWING DUST. RECENT VOLUMETRIC SOIL MOISTURE MEASUREMENTS FROM
THE NASA SPORT LAND INFORMATION SYSTEM SHOW VALUES IN THE 9 TO 13
PERCENT RANGE ACROSS MANY OF OUR DUST PRONE LOCATIONS. THESE ARE
CERTAINLY LOW ENOUGH TO CAUSE ISSUES WITH WINDS GUSTING TO 35 TO
50 MPH.

AN OVERALL DEARTH OF MOISTURE AND GENERALLY MODEST MID-LEVEL
HEIGHT FALLS MEAN PRECIP CHANCES WILL REMAIN RELATIVELY LOW WITH
THIS SYSTEM. STILL...THE PRESENCE OF NON-ZERO BUOYANCY (MUCAPE
VALUES OF 100-300 J/KG) AND PLENTY OF VORT LOBES ROTATING AROUND
THE PERIPHERPY OF THE UPPER LOW ARE ENOUGH TO WARRANT SLIGHT
CHANCE POPS WEST OF TUCSON FRIDAY EVENING...AND THEN NORTH AND
EAST OF TUCSON THROUGH THE WEEKEND. WE SHOULD HANG ONTO ENOUGH
INSTABILITY TO KEEP SLIGHT CHANCE POPS GOING IN THE WHITE
MOUNTAINS ON MONDAY AS WELL.

AS THIS LOW MOVES EAST NEXT WEEK...HEIGHTS WILL RISE UNDER
SHORTWAVE RIDGING WHICH WILL RESULT IN ANOTHER WARMING TREND INTO
THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...VALID THRU 05/23Z.
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES WILL PREVAIL ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA...WITH
JUST A FEW TO SCT CLOUDS AT 12-15K FT AGL ESPECIALLY OVER THE
HIGHER TERRAIN. SURFACE WINDS ELY/SELY AT 10-17 KTS WITH GUSTS TO
AROUND 25 KTS THRU 05/03Z...THEN DIMINISHING SURFACE WIND THIS
EVENING...WITH SPEEDS GENERALLY LESS THAN 10 KTS THRU 05/14Z. AFT
05/14Z...INCREASING SURFACE WIND...WITH SLY/SWLY SURFACE WIND AT
20-25 KTS AND GUSTS TO AROUND 30-35 KTS AFT 05/18Z. AVIATION
DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR TAF AMENDMENTS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...GUSTY EAST TO SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL CONTINUE MAINLY
ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA FROM THE NEW MEXICO
BORDER TO TUCSON THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING HOURS TONIGHT.

STRONG AND GUSTY SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED THURSDAY
AND FRIDAY AS A STORM SYSTEM MOVES INTO THE REGION FROM THE WEST.
THE STRONGEST WINDS ON THURSDAY WILL MAINLY BE FROM THE TUCSON
METRO AREA WESTWARD...WITH THE CORE OF THE STRONG WINDS SHIFTING
EASTWARD FROM TUCSON INTO COCHISE COUNTY AND AREAS ADJACENT TO THE
NEW MEXICO BORDER ON FRIDAY. THEREFORE...THE FIRE WEATHER WATCHES
ON THURSDAY (FOR FIRE WEATHER ZONES 150 AND 151) AND FRIDAY (FOR
FIRE WEATHER ZONES 151...152 AND SOUTHERN 153) HAVE BOTH BEEN
UPGRADED TO A RED FLAG WARNING FOR STRONG AND GUSTY WINDS...LOW
RELATIVE HUMIDITIES AND A HIGH FIRE DANGER RATING. 20-FOOT WINDS
WILL BE FROM THE SOUTH ON THURSDAY...AND SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST ON
FRIDAY.

COOLER TEMPERATURES AND INCREASED MOISTURE WILL THEN MOVE INTO THE
AREA LATE FRIDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THIS WILL RESULT IN A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF SHOWERS FOR MOST LOCATIONS ALONG WITH BREEZES PERSISTING
THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
RED FLAG WARNING FROM NOON TO 8 PM MST FRIDAY FOR AZZ151>153.

RED FLAG WARNING FROM NOON TO 8 PM MST THURSDAY FOR AZZ150-151.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...CARLAW
AVIATION/FIRE WEATHER...ZELL

VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...YOUTUBE...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/TUCSON




000
FXUS65 KFGZ 042154
AFDFGZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ
254 PM MST WED MAY 4 2016

.SYNOPSIS...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING DRY CONDITIONS AND WARMER
TEMPERATURES THROUGH THURSDAY. A LARGE WEATHER SYSTEM WILL BRING
GUSTY SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...WITH COOL AND
UNSETTLED CONDITIONS FROM FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND.

&&

.DISCUSSION...SOME OF THE WARMEST TEMPERATURES SO FAR THIS YEAR
ARE BEING OBSERVED ACROSS NORTHERN ARIZONA THIS AFTERNOON WITH
READINGS WELL INTO THE 70S IN THE MOUNTAINS, 80S TO NEAR 90
VALLEYS. SOUTH WINDS HAVE PICKED UP A BIT DUE TO AN APPROACHING
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WHICH IS CURRENTLY OFF THE CALIFORNIA COAST.
THIS LOW WILL MOVE CLOSER TO THE STATE ON THURSDAY. WARM
TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE, BUT WIND SPEEDS WILL INCREASE. GUSTS
OF 40 TO 50 MPH ARE LIKELY ACROSS MUCH OF COCONINO AND YAVAPAI
COUNTIES, AND A WIND ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED FROM 11 AM UNTIL 8
PM. A MINOR INCREASE IN MOISTURE WILL BRING A SLIGHT CHANCE OF A
SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM NEAR THE NEW MEXICO STATE LINE. WINDS WILL
REMAIN BREEZY THURSDAY NIGHT.

FRIDAY...THE STRONGEST WINDS SHIFT TO EASTERN ARIZONA AS THE LOW
MOVES CLOSER, AND ANOTHER WIND ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED THERE. INCREASING
MOISTURE AND LARGE SCALE LIFT WILL BRING A BETTER CHANCE OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS, MAINLY ACROSS COCONINO COUNTY NORTHWEST OF
FLAGSTAFF DURING THE AFTERNOON. FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY
NIGHT...THE LOW MOVES SLOWLY ACROSS THE STATE WITH A CHANCE OF
SHOWERS AND MAINLY AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS. SNOW LEVELS COULD DROP
TO 7000 FT OR JUST BELOW AT TIMES WHICH INCLUDES FLAGSTAFF.

BY SUNDAY...MODEL FORECASTS ARE CONSISTENT IN MOVING THE LOW EAST
OF STATE WITH A LINGERING CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS OVER NORTHERN ARIZONA. SNOW LEVELS SHOULD RISE TO
7500 FT OR HIGHER AND SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL BE MORE DIURNAL IN
NATURE, DRIVEN BY DAYTIME HEATING. A WARMING TREND SHOULD ARRIVE
MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY WITH SLOWLY DRYING CONDITIONS.

&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 00Z PACKAGE...LOOK FOR VFR CONDITIONS UNDER HIGH
CLOUDS OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. SOUTH-SOUTHWEST WINDS AT 10-20 KTS
WILL DECREASE OVERNIGHT BEFORE STRENGTHENING FURTHER ON THURSDAY.
AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR TAF AMENDMENTS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...EXPECT DRY AND WARM CONDITIONS THURSDAY.
BREEZY SOUTH-SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL INCREASE THURSDAY. NEAR CRITICAL
FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE ON THURSDAY. A COLD FRONT
WILL IMPACT THE AREA FRIDAY BRING COLDER TEMPERATURES AND MOISTURE
TO THE AREA.

SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY...COOL TEMPERATURES AND SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED
TO CONTINUE OVER NORTHERN ARIZONA AS THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM SLOWLY
MOVES ACROSS THE AREA.

&&

.FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...WIND ADVISORY FROM 11 AM TO
8 PM MST THURSDAY FOR AZZ004>008-012-015.

&&

$$

PUBLIC...JJ
AVIATION...SUK
FIRE WEATHER...SUK

FOR NORTHERN ARIZONA WEATHER INFORMATION VISIT
WEATHER.GOV/FLAGSTAFF




000
FXUS65 KPSR 042139
AFDPSR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PHOENIX AZ
235 PM MST WED MAY 4 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A SLOW MOVING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE INTO THE SOUTHWEST
DURING THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK YIELDING MUCH COOLER WEATHER.
AFTERNOON HIGHS IN THE MIDDLE 70S TO LOWER 80S WILL BE COMMON
THROUGH THE WEEKEND. BREEZY CONDITIONS WILL ALSO PREVAIL THURSDAY
AND FRIDAY WITH LOCALIZED BLOWING DUST. ALONG WITH THE COOLER
TEMPERATURES...THERE WILL ALSO BE CHANCES FOR LIGHT RAIN LATE FRIDAY
AND SATURDAY ALONG WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS.


&&

.DISCUSSION...
SHORTWAVE RIDGING CONTINUES TO HOLD OVER THE SWRN CONUS AS A SLOW
MOVING NEGATIVE HEIGHT ANOMALY EASES TOWARDS SRN CALIFORNIA. 12Z
KTWC SOUNDING DATA INDICATED HEIGHTS AND TEMPERATURES ALOFT BETWEEN
THE 75TH AND 90TH PERCENTILE WHICH HAS EQUATED TO WIDESPREAD
AFTERNOON HIGHS ECLIPSING THE 100F THRESHOLD (YET SEVERAL DEGREES
SHORT OF RECORD TERRITORY). WITH CLEAR SKIES AND LOW DEWPOINTS
PREVAILING THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT...ONLY SOMEWHAT ELEVATED WIND
SPEEDS NEAR THE BOUNDARY LAYER AND WARMER ANTECEDENT CONDITIONS WILL
KEEP MORNING LOWS SLIGHTLY HIGHER THAN PERSISTENCE.

THE NORTH AMERICAN FLOW PATTERN WILL REMAIN LARGELY STALLED AND
CHARACTERIZED BY AN OMEGA BLOCK THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH ARIZONA
SITUATED UNDER THE UPSTREAM NEGATIVE HEIGHT ANOMALY. WITH THE SLOW
FORWARD PROGRESSION OF FEATURES OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS...HEIGHTS
WILL ONLY GRADUALLY COLLAPSE THURSDAY AFTERNOON YIELDING A LARGER
THAN TYPICAL THERMAL GRADIENT ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA...AND CENTRAL
ARIZONA ONLY 4-7F COOLER THAN TODAY. FAR MORE PRONOUNCED COOLING
WILL SPREAD ACROSS THE ENTIRE REGION FRIDAY-SUNDAY UNDER THE COLD
CORE ALOFT WITH HIGHS SOME 15F BELOW AVERAGE.

HOWEVER...THE GREATEST IMPACTS THURSDAY WILL RESULT FROM INCREASED
WIND GUSTS ALONG A TIGHTENED H8 GRADIENT/FRONTAL BOUNDARY. A NARROW
CORRIDOR OF SOUTHERLY GUSTS 30-35 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE FOR A SHORT
PERIOD LATE THURSDAY AFTERNOON ACROSS CNTRL/WRN ARIZONA WITH THE
USUAL BLOWING DUST LOCATIONS EXPERIENCING SOME REDUCED VISIBILITIES.
MAY NEED SOME LOCAL DUST ADVISORIES ONCE STRONGER WINDS ARE
MANIFESTED...BUT AT THIS POINT WIND SPEEDS ONLY FLIRT WITH WIND
ADVISORY CRITERIA. THE LARGEST IMPACT WILL LIKELY BE FIRE WEATHER
CONCERNS AS HUMIDITY VALUES FALL TOWARDS SINGLE DIGITS WITH FUELS
CONTINUING TO DRY.

THERE WILL ALSO BE A SERIES OF VORT LOBES ROTATING ABOUT LARGER
CIRCULATION CENTER. THE BEST OPPORTUNITY FOR SHOWERS CONTINUES TO
OCCUR ON FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY AS COOLER AIR ALOFT COMBINES WITH
SOME MODEST DYNAMICAL LIFT/MIDLEVEL FRONTOGENESIS. MODELS SUGGEST
SOME MODEST INSTABILITY (MLCAPES 100-200 J/KG) YIELDING A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS. THE FINAL VORTICTY LOBE ROTATES THROUGH
CNTRL ARIZONA SUNDAY THOUGH PREVAILING DEEP WESTERLY FLOW WILL
LIKELY DEFLECT THE BEST SHOWER OPPORTUNITY INTO HIGHER TERRAIN NORTH
AND EAST OF PHOENIX.

MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN DURING THE FIRST HALF OF THE NEXT WORKWEEK.
THIS WILL LEAD TO TEMPERATURES A FEW DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL BY
NEXT WEDNESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...
SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA INCLUDING KPHX...KIWA...AND KSDL...
WITH AN EASTERN PACIFIC LOW SLOWLY APPROACHING FROM THE WEST...VERY
BREEZY SOUTHEASTERLY TO SOUTHERLY WINDS WITH GUSTS OF 20 TO 25 KTS
WILL TURN TO THE SOUTHWEST AND WESTERLY DIRECTIONS DURING MID TO
LATE AFTERNOON WITH SOME STRONG WIND GUSTS PERSISTING INTO THE EARLY
EVENING. WEST WINDS WILL BECOME MOSTLY LIGHT BY 03 TO 04Z BEFORE
CHANGING TO AN EASTERLY DIRECTION AROUND 05 TO 06Z. OTHERWISE EXPECT
SKIES TO REMAIN CLEAR TO MOSTLY CLEAR.

SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA/SOUTHWEST ARIZONA INCLUDING KIPL AND KBLH...
VERY BREEZY SOUTHERLY COMPONENT WINDS WITH OCCASIONAL GUSTS UP TO 20
TO 25 KTS DURING THE AFTERNOON WILL BECOME MORE SOUTHWESTERLY TO
WESTERLY TONIGHT WITH AT ABOUT 10 TO 12 KTS AT KIPL AND 5 TO 7 KTS
AT KBLH. CLEAR TO MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES CAN ALSO BE EXPECTED.

AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDED TAFS.


&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...
WITH A COOL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM STILL IN PLACE...EXPECT A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS SATURDAY MORNING AND WELL BELOW NORMAL
AFTERNOON HIGH TEMPERATURES ONLY IN THE UPPER 70S THROUGH
SUNDAY...AND INTO THE MID 80S ON MONDAY. EXPECT MINIMUM RELATIVE
HUMIDITIES IN THE 22 TO 28 PERCENT RANGE ON SATURDAY AND FALLING TO
THE UPPER TEENS TO LOW 20 PERCENT RANGE SUNDAY AND TO THE MID TO
UPPER TEENS BY MONDAY. OCCASIONALLY BREEZY SOUTHWEST WINDS CAN BE
EXPECTED EACH AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY...ESPECIALLY IN THE TONTO
FOOTHILLS AND S GILA COUNTY. ON TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...WARMER AND
DRIER WEATHER WILL PREVAIL WITH TEMPERATURES INCREASING TO NEAR
NORMAL OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL AND MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITIES
SETTLING INTO THE LOW TO MID TEENS BY WEDNESDAY.

&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED.

&&

.PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AZ...RED FLAG WARNING FROM 11 AM TO 8 PM MST THURSDAY FOR AZZ132-133.
CA...NONE.

&&

$$

VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/PHOENIX

DISCUSSION...MO/AJ
AVIATION...SAWTELLE
FIRE WEATHER...SAWTELLE




000
FXUS65 KFGZ 041710
AFDFGZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ
1010 AM MST WED MAY 4 2016

.SYNOPSIS...HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WILL BRING DRY CONDITIONS AND
WARMER TEMPERATURES THROUGH THURSDAY. A LARGE WEATHER SYSTEM WILL
BRING GUSTY SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...WITH
COOL AND UNSETTLED CONDITIONS FROM FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND.

&&

.UPDATE...TEMPERATURES HAVE WARMED VERY RAPIDLY THIS MORNING WITH
MANY OF THE HIGHER ELEVATION LOCATIONS HAVING ALREADY REACHED
YESTERDAY`S HIGH TEMPERATURES BY 9 AM! CURRENT FORECASTS ARE IN
GOOD SHAPE WITH NO UPDATES NEEDED THIS MORNING.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION /312 AM MST/... HIGH PRESSURE WILL CROSS ARIZONA
TODAY...BRINGING WARM TEMPERATURES AND DRY CONDITIONS THROUGH
THURSDAY. TODAY SHOULD BE THE WARMEST DAY OF THE NEXT 7...WITH MAX
TEMPS AROUND 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL FOR THE DATE.

ON THURSDAY...A LARGE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BE APPROACHING
ARIZONA FROM THE WEST. STRENGTHENING SOUTH WINDS ARE EXPECTED
THURSDAY AFTERNOON...WITH SUSTAINED SPEEDS FROM 15-30 MPH AND
GUSTS FROM 25-45 MPH. THE FASTEST SPEEDS ARE FORECAST ACROSS
YAVAPAI AND COCONINO COUNTIES....AND A WIND ADVISORY MAY BE ISSUED
LATER TODAY. PROGS ALSO SUGGESTING SOME MID LEVEL MOISTURE TO BE
DRAWN NORTHWARD ALONG THE AZ NM BORDER AND WE WILL KEEP THE SLIGHT
CHANCE OF AFTERNOON STORMS FOR THIS AREA. BREEZY SOUTH WINDS TO
CONTINUE THURSDAY NIGHT.

ON FRIDAY A COLD FRONT WILL BE MOVING ACROSS THE NORTHLAND. GUSTY
WINDS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS NAVAJO AND APACHE COUNTIES...WHERE
SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS AT 20-30 MPH AND GUSTS FROM 35-50 MPH ARE
FORECAST. WINDS SPEEDS TO DECREASE BY EVENING. EXPECT INCREASING
CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS FROM WEST TO EAST
ALONG AND BEHIND THE COLD FRONT. THERE ENOUGH
MOISTURE...INSTABILITY...OROGRAPHIC AND SYNOPTIC SCALE LIFT TO
SUPPORT PRECIPITATION.

SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...THE CLOSED LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS FORECAST
TO BASICALLY SIT OVER ARIZONA. SHOWERS CHANCES TO CONTINUE THROUGH
THE PERIOD WITH HIGHEST CHANCES FROM LATE MORNING INTO EARLY
EVENING. ISOLATED AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBILITY AS WELL.
MAX TEMPS TO BE AROUND 20 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. PRESENT
INDICATIONS ARE FOR LESS PRECIP ACCUMULATIONS FOR THIS WEEKEND VS
LAST. SNOW LEVELS BETWEEN 7000 AND 8000 FEET.

MONDAY AND TUESDAY...MONDAY`S FORECAST HAS ONLY A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
SHOWERS AS THE UPPER LOW SHOULD BE MOVING AWAY FROM THE AREA. HIGH
TEMPERATURES WILL BE ABLE TO RISE CLOSE TO NORMAL VALUES. TUESDAY
LOOKING DRY AND MOSTLY CLEAR.

&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 18Z PACKAGE...LOOK FOR VFR CONDITIONS UNDER
VARIABLE HIGH CLOUDS OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. SOUTH-SOUTHWEST WINDS AT
10-20 KTS 16Z-02Z. AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR TAF AMENDMENTS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...EXPECT DRY AND WARM CONDITIONS THROUGH THURSDAY.
BREEZY SOUTH-SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL DEVELOP ON WEDNESDAY...THEN TURN
STRONGER ON THURSDAY. CONDITIONS NEAR CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER
THRESHOLDS WILL BE POSSIBLE ON THURSDAY.

FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...LOW PRESSURE WILL IMPACT NORTHERN ARIZONA
BRINGING MUCH COLDER TEMPERATURES AND SHOWERS INTO THE WEEKEND.
GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS ARE ALSO LIKELY...ESPECIALLY ON FRIDAY.

&&

.FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC...JJ/DL
AVIATION...SUK
FIRE WEATHER...MAS

FOR NORTHERN ARIZONA WEATHER INFORMATION VISIT
WEATHER.GOV/FLAGSTAFF




000
FXUS65 KPSR 041627
AFDPSR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PHOENIX AZ
925 AM MST WED MAY 4 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
STRONG HIGH PRESSURE WILL LEAD TO VERY WARM TEMPERATURES TODAY WITH
MANY LOWER DESERT LOCATIONS REACHING 100 DEGREES. A COOLING TREND
STARTS THURSDAY AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES INTO THE SOUTHWEST.
WINDY CONDITIONS CAN ALSO BE EXPECTED THURSDAY WITH PATCHY BLOWING
DUST. TEMPERATURES CONTINUE TO FALL ON FRIDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE
UPPER 70S TO LOW 80S...CONTINUING THROUGH THE WEEKEND. ALONG WITH
THE COOLER TEMPERATURES...THERE WILL ALSO BE CHANCES FOR LIGHT
RAIN...MAINLY FRIDAY AND SATURDAY ALONG WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS.


&&

.DISCUSSION...
SHORTWAVE RIDGING CONTINUES TO HOLD OVER THE SWRN CONUS AS A SLOW
MOVING NEGATIVE HEIGHT ANOMALY EASES TOWARDS SRN CALIFORNIA. 12Z
KTWC SOUNDING DATA INDICATED H5 HEIGHTS NEAR 582DM WHILE H8
TEMPERATURES HOVERED JUST ABOVE +21C. THESE HEIGHT AND TEMPERATURE
READINGS GENERALLY FALL BETWEEN THE 75TH AND 90TH PERCENTILE
EQUATING TO ABNORMALLY WARM CONDITIONS...THOUGH STILL SHORT OF
RECORD TERRITORY. REGARDLESS...NEW MODEL AND ASSOCIATED SOUNDING
DATA STILL STRONGLY SUGGESTS PHOENIX WILL EXPERIENCE ITS FIRST 100F
DAY OF THE CALENDAR YEAR. OTHERWISE...STRONGER SOUTHEAST WINDS ALOFT
WERE MUCH SLOWER TO MIX AND REMAIN LOCALIZED OVER RIDGE TOPS THIS
MORNING NECESSITATING FAR LESS WIND MENTION TODAY. ALSO...BOTH
HOURLY TEMPERATURE AND DEWPOINT READINGS WERE ADJUSTED TO MATCH
OBSERVATIONAL DATA.

&&

.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
/343 AM MST WED MAY 4 2016/
TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY...
AN OMEGA PATTERN IS IN PLACE OVER NORTH AMERICA AND NORTHEAST
PACIFIC WITH A NARROW HIGH AMPLITUDE RIDGE AFFECTING MUCH OF WESTERN
NORTH AMERICA AND DEEP TROUGHS IMMEDIATELY UPSTREAM AND DOWNSTREAM.
SOME ADDITIONAL SUBSIDENCE WARMING COMBINED WITH SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL
LEAD TO WARMER TEMPERATURES TODAY. THESE FACTORS WILL BE MAXIMIZED
OVER SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA AND THUS NUDGED FORECAST HIGHS UP A COUPLE
DEGREES HIGHER THAN PREVIOUS PACKAGE. THE BREEZINESS LATER TODAY WILL
BE DUE TO THE APPROACH OF A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM CURRENTLY CENTERED
WEST OF SAN DIEGO. MODELS HAVE BEEN SLOWING THE ADVANCE OF THE SYSTEM
WHICH MAKES SENSE GIVEN THE PATTERN IN PLACE AND THE ADVERTISED
UPSTREAM AMPLIFICATION. LIKEWISE...THE EXIT LOOKS TO BE A LITTLE
SLOWER. IN BETWEEN...THE SYSTEM WILL SEND A LARGELY DRY COLD FRONT
ACROSS CALIFORNIA AND ARIZONA THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. THIS WILL LEAD TO
MUCH COOLER TEMPERATURES. THE STRONGEST WINDS OF THE WEEK WILL BE
THURSDAY AFTERNOON. THERE WILL ALSO BE A SERIES OF VORT LOBES THAT ROTATE
THROUGH BETWEEN THURSDAY AND SUNDAY. THE BEST OPPORTUNITY FOR PRECIP
OVER OUR FORECAST AREA LOOKS TO BE FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY AS
COOLER AIR ALOFT COMBINES WITH SOME MODEST DYNAMICAL LIFT. THERE WILL
BE SOME MODEST INSTABILITY FOR A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS...MAINLY FRIDAY AND SATURDAY AFTERNOONS. THE FINAL
VORT LOBE COMES THROUGH SUNDAY FOR THE LAST GASP CHANCE AT PRECIP. OVERALL
THOUGH...THIS SYSTEM WILL NOT PRODUCE ANY SIGNIFICANT PRECIP OUTSIDE
OF ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS. MOST NOTICEABLE CHANGE WILL BE THE
TEMPERATURES...WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOW 80S FRIDAY THROUGH
SUNDAY.

MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN DURING THE FIRST HALF OF THE NEXT WORKWEEK.
THIS WILL LEAD TO TEMPERATURES A FEW DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL BY
NEXT WEDNESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...
SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA INCLUDING KPHX...KIWA...AND KSDL...AND...
SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA/SOUTHWEST ARIZONA INCLUDING KIPL AND KBLH...

HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WILL LEAD TO MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT
DIURNAL WINDS ACROSS THE DESERTS. WINDS WILL INCREASE FROM THE
SOUTHEAST LATER IN THE MORNING...BECOMING MOSTLY SOUTHERLY AND
LOCALLY BREEZY WELL INTO THE AFTERNOON. GUSTY SOUTH WINDS ARE ALSO
EXPECTED AT KBLH AFTER 18Z. WINDS SHOULD NOT BE STRONG ENOUGH TO
CAUSE BLOWING DUST ISSUES AT THE TAF SITES BUT THIS MAY CHANGE ON
THURSDAY.

AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDED TAFS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...
WITH A LARGE COOL PACIFIC LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IN PLACE EXPECT COOLER
AND WELL BELOW NORMAL AFTERNOON HIGH TEMPERATURES TROUGH SUNDAY AND
MODERATELY BELOW NORMAL HIGHS BY MONDAY. THE RELATIVELY MOIST AIRMASS
WILL SUPPORT MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITIES IN THE 20 TO 25 PERCENT
RANGE THROUGH SATURDAY. BREEZY TO OCCASIONALLY WINDY SOUTHWEST WINDS
ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP FRIDAY AFTERNOON WITH GUSTS IN THE 15 TO 25
MPH RANGE IN THE LOWER DESERTS AND 20 TO 30 MPH IN THE TONTO
FOOTHILLS AND SOUTHERN GILA COUNTY AND SOUTHEAST CA. WINDS WILL
DECREASE TO THE 10 TO 15 MPH RANGE SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY
AFTERNOON. IN ADDITION...A SLIGHT CHANCE OF AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE FROM LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING
ON FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.

&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED.

&&

.PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AZ...RED FLAG WARNING FROM 11 AM TO 8 PM MST THURSDAY FOR AZZ132-133.

CA...NONE.

&&

$$

VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/PHOENIX

DISCUSSION...MO/AJ
AVIATION...CB
FIRE WEATHER...SAWTELLE




000
FXUS65 KTWC 041625
AFDTWC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ
925 AM MST WED MAY 4 2016

.SYNOPSIS...STRONG HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WILL BRING HOTTER
TEMPERATURES TODAY. A PACIFIC STORM SYSTEM WILL THEN BRING WINDY
CONDITIONS THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...ALONG WITH COOLER TEMPERATURES AND
A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS THIS WEEKEND.

&&

.DISCUSSION...MORNING SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS CLEAR SKIES ACROSS
MUCH OF ARIZONA. UPPER-AIR ANALYSIS REVEALS A HIGHLY AMPLIFIED
RIDGE AXIS JUST EAST OF THE REGION AND...AS IS TYPICAL FOR US ON
THE BACKSIDE OF THE RIDGE...TODAY WILL BE THE WARMEST DAY OF THE
BUNCH AND ALSO THE WARMEST SO FAR THIS YEAR. THE 04/12Z KTWC
SOUNDING SHOWS A TEMPERATURE INCREASE ON THE ORDER OF 4 DEGREES C
AT 700 MB AND THIS WILL TRANSLATE INTO HIGHS TOPPING OUT IN THE
MID TO UPPER 90S ACROSS MUCH OF THE CWA THIS AFTERNOON. AS THE
PREVIOUS SHIFT ALLUDED TO...THERE MAY BE A VERY OUTSIDE SHOT AT
THE CENTURY MARK AT KTUS TODAY...BUT UPPER 90S LOOK LIKE A BETTER
BET AT THIS TIME...MIGHT GET A LITTLE HELP FROM THE DOWNSLOPE
COMPONENT TO THE WINDS TODAY. SHOULD ALSO POP A FEW
CUMULUS...ESPECIALLY OUT EAST IN THE VICINITY OF A FRONTAL
INTRUSION WHICH HAS BROUGHT SOME GUSTY ESE/SE WINDS TO THE AREA.

THE MAIN FOCUS FOR TOMORROW AND FRIDAY CONTINUE TO BE THE STRONG
AND GUSTY SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS OUT AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING STORM
SYSTEM. CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER THRESHOLDS WILL LIKELY BE MET
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE REGION. FOR MORE
INFORMATION PLEASE SEE THE FIRE WEATHER SECTION BELOW.

OTHERWISE...THE FORECAST LOOKS TO BE IN GOOD SHAPE SO NO UPDATES
ARE PLANNED THIS MORNING.

&&

.AVIATION...VALID THRU 05/18Z.
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES WILL PREVAIL ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA INTO THIS
EVENING...WITH JUST SCATTERED CLOUDS ABOVE 15K FT MSL ESPECIALLY
EAST OF KTUS THIS AFTERNOON. SURFACE WINDS WILL BE ELY/SELY AT
12-20 KTS WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 25 KTS INTO THE AFTERNOON. SURFACE
WIND WILL DIMINISH TO LESS THAN 10 KTS THIS EVENING. AVIATION
DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR TAF AMENDMENTS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...GUSTY EAST TO SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL CONTINUE MAINLY
ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH MID-DAY
TODAY FROM THE NEW MEXICO BORDER TO TUCSON. WIND SPEEDS ARE
EXPECTED TO STAY BELOW CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER THRESHOLDS. STRONG
AND GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL THEN RETURN THURSDAY AND INCREASE
FURTHER ON FRIDAY AS A STORM SYSTEM MOVES INTO THE REGION FROM THE
WEST. THE STRONGEST WINDS ON THURSDAY WILL MAINLY BE FROM THE
TUCSON METRO AREA WESTWARD...WITH THE CORE OF THE STRONG WINDS
SHIFTING EASTWARD FROM TUCSON INTO COCHISE COUNTY AND AREAS
ADJACENT TO THE NEW MEXICO BORDER ON FRIDAY. A FIRE WEATHER WATCH
REMAINS IN EFFECT THURSDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING FOR
STRONG WINDS...LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITIES AND A HIGH FIRE DANGER
RATING FOR FIRE WEATHER ZONES 150 AND 151...ALSO...A NEW FIRE
WEATHER WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR FRIDAY FOR FIRE WEATHER ZONES
151...152 AND SOUTHERN 153.

COOLER TEMPERATURES AND INCREASED MOISTURE WILL THEN MOVE INTO THE
AREA LATE FRIDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THIS WILL RESULT IN A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF SHOWERS FOR MOST LOCATIONS ALONG WITH BREEZES PERSISTING
THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...THE HIGH AMPLITUDE RIDGE RESPONSIBLE FOR THE
RAPID WARM-UP WILL PUSH TEMPERATURES UP SEVERAL MORE DEGREES
TODAY. 850-700MB THICKNESS VALUES MAX OUT THIS AFTERNOON AT ABOUT
166.5DAM...ENOUGH TO PUSH AFTERNOON HIGHS TO AROUND 10 TO 12
DEGREES ABOVE AVERAGE. AN OUTSIDE CHANCE AT THE FIRST 100 AT
TUCSON INTERNATIONAL...BUT SOMETHING IN THE 97-99 RANGE IS MUCH
MORE LIKELY. THE GUSTY EASTERLY TO SOUTHEASTERLY DOWNSLOPE WINDS
MAY HELP PUSH THINGS A LITTLE CLOSER TO 100 THOUGH (WITH TIA
IMMEDIATELY DOWNSTREAM OF THE MAX THICKNESS CORE).

THE MAIN STORY WILL THEN BE THE APPROACHING STORM SYSTEM FROM THE
EASTERN PACIFIC THURSDAY INTO THIS WEEKEND. INCREASING WINDS FROM
THE WEST THURSDAY...THEN WINDY ACROSS MOST OF SOUTHEAST ARIZONA
FRIDAY. BLOWING DUST A CONCERN BOTH AFTERNOONS...BUT OUR PART OF THE
STATE WILL SEE THE STRONGEST WINDS ON FRIDAY WITH A WIND ADVISORY
POSSIBLE. A FIRE WEATHER WATCH WILL NOW BE IN EFFECT FOR BOTH
AFTERNOONS...PLEASE SEE THE FIRE WEATHER DISCUSSION BELOW FOR
ADDITIONAL DETAILS.

THE MAIN STORY FOR THE SYSTEM WILL BE THE WIND...BUT WE WILL ALSO
SEE MUCH COOLER TEMPERATURES OVER THE WEEKEND...DROPPING 20 DEGREES
OR MORE COMPARED TO TODAY. THE AVAILABLE MOISTURE WILL NOT BE THE
BEST FOR OUR AREA...BUT WE MIGHT MANAGE ENOUGH FOR GUSTY CONVECTION
SATURDAY AFTERNOON.

THE LOW WILL AT LEAST PARTIALLY CUT OFF...SO IT WILL LINGER
IMMEDIATELY NORTH OF OUR AREA FOR A FEW DAYS. WE`LL PICK UP THE FRONT
SIDE OF ANOTHER RIDGE EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM THURSDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH THURSDAY
EVENING FOR AZZ150-151.

FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM FRIDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING
FOR AZZ151>153.

&&

$$

CARLAW
PREV DISCUSSION...MEYER/RASMUSSEN

VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...YOUTUBE...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/TUCSON




000
FXUS65 KPSR 041043
AFDPSR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PHOENIX AZ
343 AM MST WED MAY 4 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
STRONG HIGH PRESSURE WILL LEAD TO VERY WARM TEMPERATURES TODAY WITH
MANY LOWER DESERT LOCATIONS REACHING 100 DEGREES. A COOLING TREND
STARTS THURSDAY AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM BEGINS MOVING INTO THE
SOUTHWEST. WINDY CONDITIONS CAN ALSO BE EXPECTED THURSDAY WITH PATCHY
BLOWING DUST. TEMPERATURES CONTINUE TO FALL ON FRIDAY WITH HIGHS IN
THE UPPER 70S TO LOW 80S...CONTINUING THROUGH THE WEEKEND. ALONG WITH
THE COOLER TEMPERATURES THERE WILL ALSO BE CHANCES FOR LIGHT
RAIN...MAINLY FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...ALONG WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS. A WARMING TREND BEGINS NEXT WEEK.


&&

.DISCUSSION...
TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY...
AN OMEGA PATTERN IS IN PLACE OVER NORTH AMERICA AND NORTHEAST
PACIFIC WITH A NARROW HIGH AMPLITUDE RIDGE AFFECTING MUCH OF WESTERN
NORTH AMERICA AND DEEP TROUGHS IMMEDIATELY UPSTREAM AND DOWNSTREAM.
SOME ADDITIONAL SUBSIDENCE WARMING COMBINED WITH SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL
LEAD TO WARMER TEMPERATURES TODAY. THESE FACTORS WILL BE MAXIMIZED
OVER SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA AND THUS NUDGED FORECAST HIGHS UP A COUPLE
DEGREES HIGHER THAN PREVIOUS PACKAGE. THE BREEZINESS LATER TODAY WILL
BE DUE TO THE APPROACH OF A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM CURRENTLY CENTERED
WEST OF SAN DIEGO. MODELS HAVE BEEN SLOWING THE ADVANCE OF THE SYSTEM
WHICH MAKES SENSE GIVEN THE PATTERN IN PLACE AND THE ADVERTISED
UPSTREAM AMPLIFICATION. LIKEWISE...THE EXIT LOOKS TO BE A LITTLE
SLOWER. IN BETWEEN...THE SYSTEM WILL SEND A LARGELY DRY COLD FRONT
ACROSS CALIFORNIA AND ARIZONA THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. THIS WILL LEAD TO
MUCH COOLER TEMPERATURES. THE STRONGEST WINDS OF THE WEEK WILL BE
THURSDAY AFTERNOON. THERE WILL ALSO BE A SERIES OF VORT LOBES THAT ROTATE
THROUGH BETWEEN THURSDAY AND SUNDAY. THE BEST OPPORTUNITY FOR PRECIP
OVER OUR FORECAST AREA LOOKS TO BE FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY AS
COOLER AIR ALOFT COMBINES WITH SOME MODEST DYNAMICAL LIFT. THERE WILL
BE SOME MODEST INSTABILITY FOR A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS...MAINLY FRIDAY AND SATURDAY AFTERNOONS. THE FINAL
VORT LOBE COMES THROUGH SUNDAY FOR THE LAST GASP CHANCE AT PRECIP. OVERALL
THOUGH...THIS SYSTEM WILL NOT PRODUCE ANY SIGNIFICANT PRECIP OUTSIDE
OF ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS. MOST NOTICEABLE CHANGE WILL BE THE
TEMPERATURES...WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOW 80S FRIDAY THROUGH
SUNDAY.

MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN DURING THE FIRST HALF OF THE NEXT WORKWEEK.
THIS WILL LEAD TO TEMPERATURES A FEW DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL BY
NEXT WEDNESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...
SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA INCLUDING KPHX...KIWA...AND KSDL...AND...
SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA/SOUTHWEST ARIZONA INCLUDING KIPL AND KBLH...

HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WILL LEAD TO CONTINUED GENLY CLEAR SKIES ALONG
WITH LIGHT DIURNAL WINDS ACROSS THE DESERTS...ESPECIALLY THE GREATER
PHOENIX AREA...FOR THE REST OF TONIGHT AND INTO THE DAY ON
WEDNESDAY. WE SHOULD SEE WINDS INCREASING FROM THE SOUTHEAST IN THE
PHOENIX AREA DURING THE MORNING TOMORROW...BECOMING MOSTLY SOUTHERLY
AND LOCALLY BREEZY WELL INTO THE AFTERNOON. GUSTY SOUTH WINDS ARE
ALSO EXPECTED AT KBLH FROM 18Z ONWARDS ON WEDNESDAY. OVERALL NO
AVIATION IMPACTS AT ANY TERMINAL FOR THE REST OF TONIGHT AND INTO
THE MORNING TOMORROW. WINDS SHOULD NOT BE STRONG ENOUGH WED
AFTERNOON TO CAUSE BLOWING DUST ISSUES AT THE TAF SITES BUT THIS
MAY CHANGE ON THURSDAY.

AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDED TAFS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

...FIRE WEATHER WATCH THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING ACROSS
SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH CENTRAL ARIZONA...

FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...
WITH A LARGE COOL PACIFIC LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IN PLACE EXPECT COOLER
AND WELL BELOW NORMAL AFTERNOON HIGH TEMPERATURES TROUGH SUNDAY AND
MODERATELY BELOW NORMAL HIGHS BY MONDAY. THE RELATIVELY MOIST AIRMASS
WILL SUPPORT MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITIES IN THE 20 TO 25 PERCENT
RANGE THROUGH SATURDAY. BREEZY TO OCCASIONALLY WINDY SOUTHWEST WINDS
ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP FRIDAY AFTERNOON WITH GUSTS IN THE 15 TO 25
MPH RANGE IN THE LOWER DESERTS AND 20 TO 30 MPH IN THE TONTO
FOOTHILLS AND SOUTHERN GILA COUNTY AND SOUTHEAST CA. WINDS WILL
DECREASE TO THE 10 TO 15 MPH RANGE SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY
AFTERNOON. IN ADDITION...A SLIGHT CHANCE OF AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE FROM LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING
ON FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.

&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED.

&&

.PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AZ...RED FLAG WARNING FROM 11 AM TO 8 PM MST THURSDAY FOR AZZ132-133.

CA...NONE.
&&

$$

VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/PHOENIX

DISCUSSION...AJ
AVIATION...CB
FIRE WEATHER...SAWTELLE




000
FXUS65 KPSR 041043
AFDPSR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PHOENIX AZ
343 AM MST WED MAY 4 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
STRONG HIGH PRESSURE WILL LEAD TO VERY WARM TEMPERATURES TODAY WITH
MANY LOWER DESERT LOCATIONS REACHING 100 DEGREES. A COOLING TREND
STARTS THURSDAY AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM BEGINS MOVING INTO THE
SOUTHWEST. WINDY CONDITIONS CAN ALSO BE EXPECTED THURSDAY WITH PATCHY
BLOWING DUST. TEMPERATURES CONTINUE TO FALL ON FRIDAY WITH HIGHS IN
THE UPPER 70S TO LOW 80S...CONTINUING THROUGH THE WEEKEND. ALONG WITH
THE COOLER TEMPERATURES THERE WILL ALSO BE CHANCES FOR LIGHT
RAIN...MAINLY FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...ALONG WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS. A WARMING TREND BEGINS NEXT WEEK.


&&

.DISCUSSION...
TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY...
AN OMEGA PATTERN IS IN PLACE OVER NORTH AMERICA AND NORTHEAST
PACIFIC WITH A NARROW HIGH AMPLITUDE RIDGE AFFECTING MUCH OF WESTERN
NORTH AMERICA AND DEEP TROUGHS IMMEDIATELY UPSTREAM AND DOWNSTREAM.
SOME ADDITIONAL SUBSIDENCE WARMING COMBINED WITH SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL
LEAD TO WARMER TEMPERATURES TODAY. THESE FACTORS WILL BE MAXIMIZED
OVER SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA AND THUS NUDGED FORECAST HIGHS UP A COUPLE
DEGREES HIGHER THAN PREVIOUS PACKAGE. THE BREEZINESS LATER TODAY WILL
BE DUE TO THE APPROACH OF A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM CURRENTLY CENTERED
WEST OF SAN DIEGO. MODELS HAVE BEEN SLOWING THE ADVANCE OF THE SYSTEM
WHICH MAKES SENSE GIVEN THE PATTERN IN PLACE AND THE ADVERTISED
UPSTREAM AMPLIFICATION. LIKEWISE...THE EXIT LOOKS TO BE A LITTLE
SLOWER. IN BETWEEN...THE SYSTEM WILL SEND A LARGELY DRY COLD FRONT
ACROSS CALIFORNIA AND ARIZONA THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. THIS WILL LEAD TO
MUCH COOLER TEMPERATURES. THE STRONGEST WINDS OF THE WEEK WILL BE
THURSDAY AFTERNOON. THERE WILL ALSO BE A SERIES OF VORT LOBES THAT ROTATE
THROUGH BETWEEN THURSDAY AND SUNDAY. THE BEST OPPORTUNITY FOR PRECIP
OVER OUR FORECAST AREA LOOKS TO BE FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY AS
COOLER AIR ALOFT COMBINES WITH SOME MODEST DYNAMICAL LIFT. THERE WILL
BE SOME MODEST INSTABILITY FOR A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS...MAINLY FRIDAY AND SATURDAY AFTERNOONS. THE FINAL
VORT LOBE COMES THROUGH SUNDAY FOR THE LAST GASP CHANCE AT PRECIP. OVERALL
THOUGH...THIS SYSTEM WILL NOT PRODUCE ANY SIGNIFICANT PRECIP OUTSIDE
OF ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS. MOST NOTICEABLE CHANGE WILL BE THE
TEMPERATURES...WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOW 80S FRIDAY THROUGH
SUNDAY.

MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN DURING THE FIRST HALF OF THE NEXT WORKWEEK.
THIS WILL LEAD TO TEMPERATURES A FEW DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL BY
NEXT WEDNESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...
SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA INCLUDING KPHX...KIWA...AND KSDL...AND...
SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA/SOUTHWEST ARIZONA INCLUDING KIPL AND KBLH...

HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WILL LEAD TO CONTINUED GENLY CLEAR SKIES ALONG
WITH LIGHT DIURNAL WINDS ACROSS THE DESERTS...ESPECIALLY THE GREATER
PHOENIX AREA...FOR THE REST OF TONIGHT AND INTO THE DAY ON
WEDNESDAY. WE SHOULD SEE WINDS INCREASING FROM THE SOUTHEAST IN THE
PHOENIX AREA DURING THE MORNING TOMORROW...BECOMING MOSTLY SOUTHERLY
AND LOCALLY BREEZY WELL INTO THE AFTERNOON. GUSTY SOUTH WINDS ARE
ALSO EXPECTED AT KBLH FROM 18Z ONWARDS ON WEDNESDAY. OVERALL NO
AVIATION IMPACTS AT ANY TERMINAL FOR THE REST OF TONIGHT AND INTO
THE MORNING TOMORROW. WINDS SHOULD NOT BE STRONG ENOUGH WED
AFTERNOON TO CAUSE BLOWING DUST ISSUES AT THE TAF SITES BUT THIS
MAY CHANGE ON THURSDAY.

AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDED TAFS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

...FIRE WEATHER WATCH THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING ACROSS
SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH CENTRAL ARIZONA...

FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...
WITH A LARGE COOL PACIFIC LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IN PLACE EXPECT COOLER
AND WELL BELOW NORMAL AFTERNOON HIGH TEMPERATURES TROUGH SUNDAY AND
MODERATELY BELOW NORMAL HIGHS BY MONDAY. THE RELATIVELY MOIST AIRMASS
WILL SUPPORT MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITIES IN THE 20 TO 25 PERCENT
RANGE THROUGH SATURDAY. BREEZY TO OCCASIONALLY WINDY SOUTHWEST WINDS
ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP FRIDAY AFTERNOON WITH GUSTS IN THE 15 TO 25
MPH RANGE IN THE LOWER DESERTS AND 20 TO 30 MPH IN THE TONTO
FOOTHILLS AND SOUTHERN GILA COUNTY AND SOUTHEAST CA. WINDS WILL
DECREASE TO THE 10 TO 15 MPH RANGE SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY
AFTERNOON. IN ADDITION...A SLIGHT CHANCE OF AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE FROM LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING
ON FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.

&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED.

&&

.PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AZ...RED FLAG WARNING FROM 11 AM TO 8 PM MST THURSDAY FOR AZZ132-133.

CA...NONE.
&&

$$

VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/PHOENIX

DISCUSSION...AJ
AVIATION...CB
FIRE WEATHER...SAWTELLE




000
FXUS65 KFGZ 041012
AFDFGZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ
312 AM MST WED MAY 4 2016

.SYNOPSIS...HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WILL BRING DRY CONDITIONS AND
WARMER TEMPERATURES THROUGH THURSDAY. A LARGE WEATHER SYSTEM WILL
BRING GUSTY SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...WITH
COOL AND UNSETTLED CONDITIONS FROM FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CROSS ARIZONA TODAY...BRINGING WARM
TEMPERATURES AND DRY CONDITIONS THROUGH THURSDAY. TODAY SHOULD BE
THE WARMEST DAY OF THE NEXT 7...WITH MAX TEMPS AROUND 10 DEGREES
ABOVE NORMAL FOR THE DATE.

ON THURSDAY...A LARGE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BE APPROACHING
ARIZONA FROM THE WEST. STRENGTHENING SOUTH WINDS ARE EXPECTED
THURSDAY AFTERNOON...WITH SUSTAINED SPEEDS FROM 15-30 MPH AND
GUSTS FROM 25-45 MPH. THE FASTEST SPEEDS ARE FORECAST ACROSS
YAVAPAI AND COCONINO COUNTIES....AND A WIND ADVISORY MAY BE ISSUED
LATER TODAY.  PROGS ALSO SUGGESTING SOME MID LEVEL MOISTURE TO BE
DRAWN NORTHWARD ALONG THE AZ NM BORDER AND WE WILL KEEP THE SLIGHT
CHANCE OF AFTERNOON STORMS FOR THIS AREA. BREEZY SOUTH WINDS TO
CONTINUE THURSDAY NIGHT.

ON FRIDAY A COLD FRONT WILL BE MOVING ACROSS THE NORTHLAND. GUSTY
WINDS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS NAVAJO AND APACHE COUNTIES...WHERE SOUTH
TO SOUTHWEST WINDS AT 20-30 MPH AND GUSTS FROM 35-50 MPH ARE
FORECAST. WINDS SPEEDS TO DECREASE BY EVENING. EXPECT INCREASING
CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS FROM WEST TO EAST ALONG
AND BEHIND THE COLD FRONT. THERE ENOUGH MOISTURE...INSTABILITY...OROGRAPHIC
AND SYNOPTIC SCALE LIFT TO SUPPORT PRECIPITATION.

SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...THE CLOSED LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS FORECAST
TO BASICALLY SIT OVER ARIZONA. SHOWERS CHANCES TO CONTINUE THROUGH
THE PERIOD WITH HIGHEST CHANCES FROM LATE MORNING INTO EARLY
EVENING. ISOLATED AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBILITY AS WELL.
MAX TEMPS TO BE AROUND 20 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. PRESENT
INDICATIONS ARE FOR LESS PRECIP ACCUMULATIONS FOR THIS WEEKEND VS
LAST. SNOW LEVELS BETWEEN 7000 AND 8000 FEET.

MONDAY AND TUESDAY...MONDAY`S FORECAST HAS ONLY A SLIGHT CHANCE
OF SHOWERS AS THE UPPER LOW SHOULD BE MOVING AWAY FROM THE AREA.
HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE ABLE TO RISE CLOSE TO NORMAL VALUES.
TUESDAY LOOKING DRY AND MOSTLY CLEAR.

&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 12Z PACKAGE...LOOK FOR VFR CONDITIONS UNDER
VARIABLE HIGH CLOUDS OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. GENERALLY LIGHT WINDS
ARE EXPECTED OVERNIGHT...BUT WILL BECOME SOUTH-SOUTHWEST AT 10-20
KTS 16Z-02Z. AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR TAF AMENDMENTS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...EXPECT DRY AND WARM CONDITIONS THROUGH THURSDAY.
BREEZY SOUTH-SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL DEVELOP ON WEDNESDAY...THEN TURN
STRONGER ON THURSDAY. CONDITIONS NEAR CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER
THRESHOLDS WILL BE POSSIBLE ON THURSDAY.

FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...LOW PRESSURE WILL IMPACT NORTHERN ARIZONA
BRINGING MUCH COLDER TEMPERATURES AND SHOWERS INTO THE WEEKEND.
GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS ARE ALSO LIKELY...ESPECIALLY ON FRIDAY.

.FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC...DL
AVIATION...MAS
FIRE WEATHER...MAS

FOR NORTHERN ARIZONA WEATHER INFORMATION VISIT
WEATHER.GOV/FLAGSTAFF




000
FXUS65 KTWC 040940
AFDTWC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ
230 AM MST WED MAY 4 2016

.SYNOPSIS...STRONG HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WILL BRING HOTTER
TEMPERATURES TODAY. A PACIFIC STORM SYSTEM WILL THEN BRING WINDY
CONDITIONS THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...ALONG WITH COOLER TEMPERATURES AND
A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS THIS WEEKEND.

&&

.DISCUSSION...THE HIGH AMPLITUDE RIDGE RESPONSIBLE FOR THE RAPID
WARM-UP WILL PUSH TEMPERATURES UP SEVERAL MORE DEGREES TODAY. 850-
700MB THICKNESS VALUES MAX OUT THIS AFTERNOON AT ABOUT
166.5DAM...ENOUGH TO PUSH AFTERNOON HIGHS TO AROUND 10 TO 12 DEGREES
ABOVE AVERAGE. AN OUTSIDE CHANCE AT THE FIRST 100 AT TUCSON
INTERNATIONAL...BUT SOMETHING IN THE 97-99 RANGE IS MUCH MORE
LIKELY. THE GUSTY EASTERLY TO SOUTHEASTERLY DOWNSLOPE WINDS MAY HELP
PUSH THINGS A LITTLE CLOSER TO 100 THOUGH (WITH TIA IMMEDIATELY
DOWNSTREAM OF THE MAX THICKNESS CORE).

THE MAIN STORY WILL THEN BE THE APPROACHING STORM SYSTEM FROM THE
EASTERN PACIFIC THURSDAY INTO THIS WEEKEND. INCREASING WINDS FROM
THE WEST THURSDAY...THEN WINDY ACROSS MOST OF SOUTHEAST ARIZONA
FRIDAY. BLOWING DUST A CONCERN BOTH AFTERNOONS...BUT OUR PART OF THE
STATE WILL SEE THE STRONGEST WINDS ON FRIDAY WITH A WIND ADVISORY
POSSIBLE. A FIRE WEATHER WATCH WILL NOW BE IN EFFECT FOR BOTH
AFTERNOONS...PLEASE SEE THE FIRE WEATHER DISCUSSION BELOW FOR
ADDITIONAL DETAILS.

THE MAIN STORY FOR THE SYSTEM WILL BE THE WIND...BUT WE WILL ALSO
SEE MUCH COOLER TEMPERATURES OVER THE WEEKEND...DROPPING 20 DEGREES
OR MORE COMPARED TO TODAY. THE AVAILABLE MOISTURE WILL NOT BE THE
BEST FOR OUR AREA...BUT WE MIGHT MANAGE ENOUGH FOR GUSTY CONVECTION
SATURDAY AFTERNOON.

THE LOW WILL AT LEAST PARTIALLY CUT OFF...SO IT WILL LINGER
IMMEDIATELY NORTH OF OUR AREA FOR A FEW DAYS. WE`LL PICK UP THE FRONT
SIDE OF ANOTHER RIDGE EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...VALID THRU 05/12Z.
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES WILL PREVAIL ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA INTO THIS
EVENING...WITH JUST SCATTERED CLOUDS ABOVE 15K FT MSL ESPECIALLY
EAST OF KTUS. SURFACE WIND WILL INCREASE AROUND DAYBREAK...AND WILL
BE ELY/SELY AT 12-20 KTS WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 25 KTS INTO THE
AFTERNOON. SURFACE WIND WILL DIMINISH TO LESS THAN 10 KTS WEDNESDAY
EVENING. AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR TAF AMENDMENTS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...GUSTY EAST TO SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL OVERSPREAD THE
EASTERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH MID-DAY TODAY FROM THE NEW
MEXICO BORDER TO TUCSON. WIND SPEEDS ARE EXPECTED TO STAY BELOW
CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER THRESHOLDS. STRONG AND GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS
WILL THEN RETURN THURSDAY AND INCREASE FRIDAY AS A STORM SYSTEM
MOVES INTO THE REGION FROM THE WEST. THE STRONGEST WINDS ON THURSDAY
WILL MAINLY BE FROM THE TUCSON METRO AREA WESTWARD...WITH THE CORE
OF THE STRONG WINDS SHIFTING EASTWARD FROM TUCSON INTO COCHISE
COUNTY AND AREAS ADJACENT TO THE NEW MEXICO BORDER ON FRIDAY. A FIRE
WEATHER WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT THURSDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH THURSDAY
EVENING FOR STRONG WINDS...LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITIES AND A HIGH FIRE
DANGER RATING FOR FIRE WEATHER ZONES 150 AND 151...ALSO...A NEW FIRE
WEATHER WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR FRIDAY FOR FIRE WEATHER ZONES
151...152 AND SOUTHERN 153.

COOLER TEMPERATURES AND INCREASED MOISTURE WILL THEN MOVE INTO THE
AREA LATE FRIDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THIS WILL RESULT IN A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF SHOWERS FOR MOST LOCATIONS ALONG WITH BREEZES PERSISTING
THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
    FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM THURSDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH THURSDAY
     EVENING FOR FIRE ZONES AZZ150-151

    FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM FRIDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH FRIDAY
     EVENING FOR FIRE ZONES AZZ151>153
&&

$$

MEYER/RASMUSSEN

VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...YOUTUBE...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/TUCSON




000
FXUS65 KTWC 040410
AFDTWC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ
910 PM MST TUE MAY 3 2016

.SYNOPSIS...STRONG HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WILL BRING UNSEASONABLY WARM
TEMPERATURES WEDNESDAY. A PACIFIC STORM SYSTEM WILL THEN BRING WINDY
CONDITIONS THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...ALONG WITH COOLER TEMPERATURES AND
A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS THIS WEEKEND.

&&

.DISCUSSION...CLEAR SKIES PREVAIL ACROSS SE ARIZONA AT THIS TIME
ALONG WITH LIGHT WINDS. A FEW CUMULFORM CLOUDS JUST NORTH AND EAST
OF THE WHITE MOUNTAINS IN NRN GREENLEE COUNTY CONTINUE TO DISSIPATE.
IN ADDITION...AN AREA OF MAINLY CIRRIFORM CLOUDS OVER THE GREAT
BASIN WILL REMAIN NORTH OF THIS FORECAST AREA THE REST OF TONIGHT.
04/00Z NAM/GFS DEPICT ELY/SELY WIND SPEEDS WILL INCREASE SHORTLY
BEFORE SUNRISE...OR SHORTLY AFTER SUNRISE...WED DEPENDING UPON
LOCATION. THE EARLIER ONSET SHOULD OCCUR EAST OF TUCSON AND
ESPECIALLY IN THE VICINITY OF SAFFORD...AT LEAST ACCORDING TO THE
04/00Z NAM MOS GUIDANCE.

WIND GUSTS TO AROUND 25 MPH OR SO SHOULD THEN OCCUR IN THE FAVORED
EAST-TO-SOUTHEAST WIND PRONE LOCALES BY LATE WED MORNING. WIND
SPEEDS WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH WED AFTERNOON. THIS SCENARIO IS WELL
HANDLED VIA THE OFFICIAL FORECAST. OTHERWISE...A STRONG HIGH
PRESSURE RIDGE AXIS MOVING EAST OF THE AREA WILL PROVIDE DRY
CONDITIONS WED WITH DAYTIME TEMPS TO AVERAGE NEARLY 5-10 DEGS ABOVE
NORMAL.

THERE ARE NO UPDATES NECESSARY AT THIS TIME. PLEASE REFER TO THE
ADDITIONAL SECTIONS FOR FURTHER DETAIL.

&&

.AVIATION...VALID THRU 05/06Z.
CLEAR SKIES WILL PREVAIL ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA INTO WEDNESDAY
EVENING...WITH PERHAPS SCATTERED CLOUDS ABOVE 15K FT MSL ESPECIALLY
EAST OF KTUS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. SURFACE WIND WILL INCREASE AROUND
DAYBREAK WEDNESDAY...AND WILL BE ELY/SELY AT 12-20 KTS WITH GUSTS TO
AROUND 25 KTS INTO WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. SURFACE WIND WILL DIMINISH
TO LESS THAN 10 KTS WEDNESDAY EVENING. AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT
UPDATED FOR TAF AMENDMENTS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...GUSTY EAST TO SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL OVERSPREAD THE
EASTERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH MID-DAY WEDNESDAY FROM THE
NEW MEXICO BORDER TO TUCSON. WIND SPEEDS ARE EXPECTED TO STAY BELOW
CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER THRESHOLDS. STRONG AND GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS
WILL THEN RETURN THURSDAY AND FRIDAY AS A STORM SYSTEM MOVES INTO
THE REGION FROM THE WEST. THE STRONGEST WINDS ON THURSDAY WILL
MAINLY BE FROM THE TUCSON METRO AREA WESTWARD...WITH THE CORE OF THE
STRONG WINDS SHIFTING EASTWARD FROM TUCSON INTO COCHISE COUNTY AND
AREAS ADJACENT TO THE NEW MEXICO BORDER ON FRIDAY. A FIRE WEATHER
WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING
FOR STRONG WINDS...LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITIES AND A HIGH FIRE DANGER
RATING FOR FIRE WEATHER ZONES 150 AND 151.

THE THREAT FOR CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS CONTINUES ON FRIDAY
FOR EASTERN AREAS. MOST LIKELY A FIRE WEATHER WATCH WILL BE ISSUED
ON SUBSEQUENT SHIFTS AS WE GET CLOSER TO FRIDAY FOR AREAS EAST OF
TUCSON TO THE NEW MEXICO BORDER.

COOLER TEMPERATURES AND INCREASED MOISTURE WILL THEN MOVE INTO THE
AREA LATE FRIDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THIS WILL RESULT IN A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF SHOWERS FOR MOST LOCATIONS ALONG WITH BREEZES PERSISTING
THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION /223 PM MST/...WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS AN
AMPLIFIED HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE TO OUR NORTH WITH THE TAIL END OF A
SYSTEM CURRENTLY SKIRTING ACROSS THE FOUR CORNERS REGION AND SLIDING
SOUTH. MEANWHILE...A PACIFIC SYSTEM IS OFF THE WEST COAST AND WILL
BE THE SYSTEM THAT EVENTUALLY GIVES US INCREASING WINDS THURSDAY AND
A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS FRIDAY THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. IR AND
VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES ACROSS ARIZONA AT
THIS TIME...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF SOME CUMULUS DEVELOPMENT OVER THE
WHITE MOUNTAINS OF EAST CENTRAL ARIZONA AND EXTENDING INTO NEW
MEXICO.

MODELS INDICATE THAT THE AFOREMENTIONED TROUGH AXIS NEAR THE FOUR
CORNERS WILL CONTINUE TO SLIDE RAPIDLY TO THE SOUTHEAST OVERNIGHT
AND INTO WEDNESDAY...WITH THIS SYSTEM DIVING INTO SOUTHERN PLAINS.
MEANWHILE...THE RIDGE TO OUR NORTH WILL STRENGTHEN AND CONSOLIDATE
IN A POSITION THAT WILL STRADDLE THE AZ/NM STATE LINE AND EXTEND
NORTH INTO THE NORTHERN ROCKIES/PLAINS BY EARLY WEDNESDAY. AS A
RESULT...WE WILL SEE OUR HOTTEST DAY OF THE WEEK OCCUR WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON WITH READINGS FOR THE CENTRAL AND WESTERN DESERTS IN THE
MID TO UPPER 90S. IN ADDITION...AT THE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL
SETTLE IN OVER THE FRONT RANGE OF THE ROCKIES WHICH WILL RESULT IN A
TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS SOUTHEAST ARIZONA. MOS WIND GUIDANCE
IS ADVERTISING AN INCREASE IN EAST TO SOUTHEAST WINDS TOWARD SUNRISE
WEDNESDAY MORNING AND CONTINUING THROUGH AROUND MIDDAY BEFORE
SLACKENING DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON HOURS AS THE GRADIENT BEGINS TO
RELAX.

THE RIDGE AXIS WILL MOVE EAST THURSDAY IN RESPONSE TO AN UPPER LOW
OFF THE WEST COAST MAKING ITS WAY TOWARD THE SOUTH CENTRAL
CALIFORNIA COAST BY LATE IN THE DAY ON THURSDAY. AS THIS OCCURS...
WINDS AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM WILL INCREASE CONSIDERABLY FROM THE
SOUTHWEST...ESPECIALLY FOR CENTRAL AND WESTERN AREAS. THIS HAS
PROMPTED THE ISSUANCE OF A FIRE WEATHER WATCH FOR LATE THURSDAY
MORNING AND INTO THE EVENING (SEE THE FIRE WEATHER SECTION BELOW FOR
FURTHER DETAILS). AS THE LOW CONTINUES TO SLOWLY MARCH TO THE
EAST...WINDS WILL LINGER INTO FRIDAY...BUT WILL SHIFT EASTWARD AND
AFFECT MOSTLY AREAS BETWEEN TUCSON AND THE NEW MEXICO BORDER. FOR
NOW WE HAVE OPTED NOT TO ISSUE A FIRE WEATHER WATCH FOR FRIDAY...BUT
SUBSEQUENT SHIFTS WILL NEED TO TAKE A CLOSER LOOK AT THE WINDS FOR
FRIDAY.

THIS SYSTEM WILL ALSO BRING A THREAT FOR SHOWERS...ALTHOUGH AT THIS
TIME IT SEEMS IT WILL BE FAIRLY SMALL. THAT SAID...THE MAIN FOCUS
FOR THIS THREAT WILL BE MAINLY ACROSS NORTHERN FRINGES OF MY
FORECAST AREA AND THIS WILL BEGIN FRIDAY AND CONTINUE THROUGH EARLY
NEXT WEEK AS THE LOW FINALLY EXITS THE REGION.

FOR TUCSON...HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE AROUND 10 DEGS ABOVE NORMAL
WEDNESDAY AND 5 TO 10 DEGS ABOVE NORMAL THURSDAY. FOR THE PERIOD
FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY HIGHS WILL BE BELOW NORMAL...ALTHOUGH THE
COOLEST DAYS WILL OCCUR OVER THE WEEKEND WHEN HIGHS WILL RANGE FROM
10 TO 15 DEGS BELOW NORMAL. NEAR NORMAL HIGHS EXPECTED BY TUESDAY.
LOW TEMPS WILL BE AROUND 5 DEGS ABOVE NORMAL WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY
MORNINGS...THEN NEAR NORMAL FRIDAY. THEREAFTER...LOWS AROUND 6 TO 8
DEGS BELOW NORMAL FOR THE WEEKEND INTO MONDAY...THEN ABOUT 2 TO 4
DEGS BELOW NORMAL FOR TUESDAY.

&&

.TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
    FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY
     EVENING FOR FIRE AZZ150-151

&&

$$

VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...YOUTUBE...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/TUCSON

FRANCIS
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...MOLLERE




000
FXUS65 KPSR 040348
AFDPSR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PHOENIX AZ
850 PM MST TUE MAY 3 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
TEMPERATURES WILL QUICKLY WARM TODAY AND PEAK WEDNESDAY UNDER HIGH
PRESSURE. SOME LOWER DESERTS WILL APPROACH TRIPLE DIGITS. THE HEAT
WILL NOT LAST LONG AS ANOTHER STORM SYSTEM ROLLS IN FROM THE PACIFIC.
WINDS WILL INCREASE WEDNESDAY AND BE STRONGEST THURSDAY LEADING TO
AREAS OF BLOWING DUST. FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND WILL FEATURE BELOW
NORMAL TEMPERATURES...VARIOUS CLOUD COVER...AND MODEST CHANCES FOR
RAIN.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
UPPER RIDGE CONTINUED TO BUILD ACROSS THE DESERT SOUTHWEST THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING...AHEAD OF A LARGE UPPER LOW TAKING SHAPE JUST
OFF THE WEST COAST. 500MB HEIGHTS HAVE CLIMBED JUST ABOVE 580DM OVER
THE SRN DESERTS AND UNDER FULL SUNSHINE TODAY HIGH TEMPS CLIMBED
INTO THE MID 90S OVER THE WARMER LOWER DESERTS. PHOENIX TOPPED OUT
AT 94 DEGREES...COMPARED TO THE NORMAL HIGH OF 91. IR IMAGERY AT 8
PM SHOWED JUST A FEW THIN HIGH CLOUDS SPREADING INTO SERN CA
OTHERWISE SKIES WERE CLEAR...AND WINDS WERE LIGHT. FOR THE REST OF
TONIGHT EXPECT GENLY CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT DIURNAL WINDS. IT LOOKS
TO BE A PRETTY GOOD BET THAT PHOENIX WILL REACH THE FIRST 100 DEGREE
MARK OF THE YEAR TOMORROW...ESPECIALLY GIVEN THAT WE SHOULD SEE
MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES AND HAVE BREEZY SOUTH WINDS DURING THE AFTERNOON
WHICH OFTEN HELP THE TEMPERATURE AT SKY HARBOR TO SPIKE UPWARDS A
FEW DEGREES. WE SHALL SEE. NO UPDATES NEEDED TO THE FORECAST AT THIS
TIME.

.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
CLEAR AND WARM ACROSS THE NWS PHOENIX FORECAST AREA THIS AFTERNOON.
TEMPERATURES AT 2 PM WERE GENERALLY ABOUT 5 DEGREES WARMER THAN THIS
TIME YESTERDAY. DETERMINISTIC/ENSEMBLE MODELS REMAIN IN GOOD
AGREEMENT ON THE FORECAST THROUGH THE NEXT FIVE DAYS.

FOR WEDNESDAY...RIDGE OVERHEAD WILL BE MIGRATING WEST AS THE LARGE
UPSTREAM CLOSED LOW CONTINUES TO TAKE SHAPE AND MOVE INLAND. THE
RESULT WILL BE A SOMEWHAT BREEZY DAY BUT MORE NOTABLY VERY WARM
TEMPERATURES. WE ARE STILL FORECASTING PHOENIX TO HIT ITS FIRST 100
DEGREE DAY...WHICH DURING THE 1981-2010 PERIOD HAPPENS ON AVERAGE BY
MAY 2. ALL THE MODEL DATA IS TIGHTLY CLUSTERED IN THE 99-101 RANGE
THOUGH MIXING OUT BOUNDARY LAYER TEMPERATURES WOULD INDICATE THE
LOWER END OF THE RANGE MAY BE MORE LIKELY. IF WE DO END UP MISSING
IT TOMORROW IT WILL LIKELY BE A WHILE BEFORE WE HAVE ANOTHER CHANCE
AT IT. WINDS ARE NOT LOOKING QUITE AS STRONG FOR TOMORROW/WEDNESDAY
AS ORIGINALLY THOUGHT SO WE DID REMOVE THE BLOWING DUST FROM THE
FORECAST.

THE SYSTEM CONTINUES TO MOVE IN THURSDAY AND WIND FIELDS INCREASE IN
RESPONSE. WHILE WE ARE STILL A BIT BELOW WI.Y CRITERIA IT WILL FEEL
LIKE A WINDY DAY FOR MOST AREAS AND WE STILL EXPECT BLOWING DUST TO
BE AN ISSUE. WE MAY NEED A WI.Y AND/OR BD.Y FOR THIS EVENT.

THE LOW WILL MOVE ONSHORE FRIDAY. WHILE IVT VALUES AREN/T FORECAST TO
BE VERY HIGH BY THE GEFS /LIKELY REMAINING BELOW 250 KG/M/S BUT ABOVE
150/ THERE WILL BE ENOUGH TO EVENTUALLY GET SOME LIGHT TO MODERATE
SHOWERS GOING. THE EC IS A BIT FASTER SHOWING THE MOISTURE FLUX
INCREASING ENOUGH DURING THE DAY FRIDAY TO GET SHOWERS GOING BUT THE
GEFS AND SREF REALLY HOLD OFF UNTIL FRIDAY NIGHT. PREFER THE SLIGHTLY
SLOWER AND MORE SUPPORTED OPTION. ONCE SHOWERS GET GOING FRIDAY NIGHT
A GENERALLY SOUTHWEST FLOW MAY KEEP SOME UPSLOPE SHOWER ACTIVITY
GOING INTO SATURDAY AND MAYBE SUNDAY. BURF SOUNDINGS SUPPORT SOME
MINOR INSTABILITY WITH THIS SYSTEM SO THUNDERSTORMS ARE NOT OUT OF
THE QUESTION.

THE SYSTEM BECOMES MORE DIFFUSE AND BEGINS TO SWIRL TO THE NORTHEAST
SUNDAY WITH A BROAD RIDGE BUILDING IN MONDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL BEGIN
TO WARM TOWARD SEASONAL NORMALS WITH CLEARING SKY.

&&

.AVIATION...
SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA INCLUDING KPHX...KIWA...AND KSDL...AND...
SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA/SOUTHWEST ARIZONA INCLUDING KIPL AND KBLH...

HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WILL LEAD TO CONTINUED GENLY CLEAR SKIES ALONG
WITH LIGHT DIURNAL WINDS ACROSS THE DESERTS...ESPECIALLY THE GREATER
PHOENIX AREA...FOR THE REST OF TONIGHT AND INTO THE DAY ON
WEDNESDAY. WE SHOULD SEE WINDS INCREASING FROM THE SOUTHEAST IN THE
PHOENIX AREA DURING THE MORNING TOMORROW...BECOMING MOSTLY SOUTHERLY
AND LOCALLY BREEZY WELL INTO THE AFTERNOON. GUSTY SOUTH WINDS ARE
ALSO EXPECTED AT KBLH FROM 18Z ONWARDS ON WEDNESDAY. OVERALL NO
AVIATION IMPACTS AT ANY TERMINAL FOR THE REST OF TONIGHT AND INTO
THE MORNING TOMORROW. WINDS SHOULD NOT BE STRONG ENOUGH WED
AFTERNOON TO CAUSE BLOWING DUST ISSUES AT THE TAF SITES BUT THIS
MAY CHANGE ON THURSDAY.

AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDED TAFS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

...FIRE WEATHER WATCH THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING ACROSS
SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH CENTRAL ARIZONA...

FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...
WITH A LARGE COOL PACIFIC LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IN PLACE EXPECT COOLER
AND WELL BELOW NORMAL AFTERNOON HIGH TEMPERATURES TROUGH SUNDAY AND
MODERATELY BELOW NORMAL HIGHS BY MONDAY. THE RELATIVELY MOIST AIRMASS
WILL SUPPORT MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITIES IN THE 20 TO 25 PERCENT
RANGE THROUGH SATURDAY. BREEZY TO OCCASIONALLY WINDY SOUTHWEST WINDS
ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP FRIDAY AFTERNOON WITH GUSTS IN THE 15 TO 25
MPH RANGE IN THE LOWER DESERTS AND 20 TO 30 MPH IN THE TONTO
FOOTHILLS AND SOUTHERN GILA COUNTY AND SOUTHEAST CA. WINDS WILL
DECREASE TO THE 10 TO 15 MPH RANGE SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY
AFTERNOON. IN ADDITION...A SLIGHT CHANCE OF AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE FROM LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING
ON FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.

&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED.

&&

.PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AZ...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM THURSDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH THURSDAY
     EVENING FOR AZZ132-133.

CA...NONE.
&&

$$

VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/PHOENIX

DISCUSSION...CB
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...INIGUEZ
AVIATION...CB
FIRE WEATHER...SAWTELLE




000
FXUS65 KFGZ 040336
AFDFGZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ
836 PM MST TUE MAY 3 2016

.SYNOPSIS...HIGH PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO BRING DRY CONDITIONS AND
WARMER TEMPERATURES WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. A FAIRLY LARGE AND
STRONG WEATHER SYSTEM WILL BRING WINDY SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...WITH COOL AND UNSETTLED CONDITIONS FROM
FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND.

&&

.DISCUSSION...THE FORECAST IS IN GOOD SHAPE WITH NO UPDATES
ANTICIPATED THIS EVENING.

HIGH PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO MOVE ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH
WEDNESDAY. THIS WEATHER PATTERN WILL BRING WARM HIGH TEMPERATURES
AND DRY CONDITIONS THROUGH THURSDAY.

A FAIRLY LARGE CLOSED LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO DROP
SOUTH ALONG THE CALIFORNIA COAST ON WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...WINDY
SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS ARE FORECAST TO DEVELOP THURSDAY
AFTERNOON WITH SOUTHERLY WINDS 15-30 MPH AND GUSTS FROM 25-45
MPH...WITH THE STRONGEST WINDS OVER PORTIONS OF YAVAPAI AND
COCONINO COUNTIES. FOR FRIDAY THE SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS ARE
FORECAST TO INCREASE...WINDS 15-30 MPH AND GUSTS FROM 25-45 MPH
FRIDAY MORNING OVER EASTERN COCONINO COUNTY AND NAVAJO AND APACHE
COUNTIES AND CONTINUE INTO EARLY FRIDAY AFTERNOON. WINDS ARE
FORECAST TO DECREASE LATER FRIDAY AFTERNOON HOWEVER REMAIN FAIRLY
BREEZY.

LATE ON FRIDAY...EXPECT INCREASING CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS ALONG AND BEHIND THE COLD FRONT. THERE IS AMPLE
MOISTURE...INSTABILITY...OROGRAPHIC AND SYNOPTIC SCALE LIFT TO
SUPPORT AS LEAST SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS.

SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...THE CLOSED LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS FORECAST
TO MOVE NORTHEAST ACROSS NORTHERN ARIZONA UP INTO SOUTHERN UTAH
SATURDAY...WITH A ANOTHER DISTURBANCE ROTATING SOUTH-SOUTHEAST
THROUGH NEVADA-CALIFORNIA TO REINFORCE ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS ON
SUNDAY. THERE WILL BE CONTINUED CHANCES OF SHOWERS EACH DAY WITH
THE BEST CHANCES FOR SHOWERS FROM LATE MORNING INTO EARLY
EVENING...WHICH IS ASSOCIATED WITH THE DAYTIME HEATING AND THE
BEST INSTABILITY. ISOLATED AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS ARE A
POSSIBILITY ON BOTH DAYS.

MONDAY AND TUESDAY...NORTHERN ARIZONA WILL STILL BE IN THE REACHES
OF THE DEPARTING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM...WHICH WILL PROVIDE
SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY...WEAK LIFT AND JUST ENOUGH MOISTURE FOR A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF AFTERNOON SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS WITH THE
BETTER PROBABILITIES BEING ON MONDAY. WEST TO NORTHWEST FLOW WILL
BRING SOME WEAK COLD ADVECTION...HOWEVER HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE
ABLE TO RISE CLOSE TO NORMAL VALUES.

&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 06Z PACKAGE...LOOK FOR VFR CONDITIONS UNDER
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. GENERALLY LIGHT WINDS ARE
EXPECTED OVERNIGHT...BUT WILL BECOME SOUTH-SOUTHWEST AT 10-20 KTS
AFTER 16Z. AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR TAF AMENDMENTS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...EXPECT DRY AND WARM CONDITIONS THROUGH THURSDAY.
BREEZY SOUTH-SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL DEVELOP ON WEDNESDAY...THEN TURN
STRONGER ON THURSDAY. CONDITIONS NEAR CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER
THRESHOLDS WILL BE POSSIBLE ON THURSDAY.

FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...LOW PRESSURE WILL IMPACT NORTHERN ARIZONA
BRINGING MUCH COLDER TEMPERATURES AND AREAS OF SHOWERS INTO THE
WEEKEND. GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS ARE ALSO LIKELY...ESPECIALLY FOR
FRIDAY.

&&

.FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC...MCCOLLUM/TC
AVIATION...MCCOLLUM


FOR NORTHERN ARIZONA WEATHER INFORMATION VISIT
WEATHER.GOV/FLAGSTAFF




000
FXUS65 KFGZ 040336
AFDFGZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ
836 PM MST TUE MAY 3 2016

.SYNOPSIS...HIGH PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO BRING DRY CONDITIONS AND
WARMER TEMPERATURES WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. A FAIRLY LARGE AND
STRONG WEATHER SYSTEM WILL BRING WINDY SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...WITH COOL AND UNSETTLED CONDITIONS FROM
FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND.

&&

.DISCUSSION...THE FORECAST IS IN GOOD SHAPE WITH NO UPDATES
ANTICIPATED THIS EVENING.

HIGH PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO MOVE ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH
WEDNESDAY. THIS WEATHER PATTERN WILL BRING WARM HIGH TEMPERATURES
AND DRY CONDITIONS THROUGH THURSDAY.

A FAIRLY LARGE CLOSED LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO DROP
SOUTH ALONG THE CALIFORNIA COAST ON WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...WINDY
SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS ARE FORECAST TO DEVELOP THURSDAY
AFTERNOON WITH SOUTHERLY WINDS 15-30 MPH AND GUSTS FROM 25-45
MPH...WITH THE STRONGEST WINDS OVER PORTIONS OF YAVAPAI AND
COCONINO COUNTIES. FOR FRIDAY THE SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS ARE
FORECAST TO INCREASE...WINDS 15-30 MPH AND GUSTS FROM 25-45 MPH
FRIDAY MORNING OVER EASTERN COCONINO COUNTY AND NAVAJO AND APACHE
COUNTIES AND CONTINUE INTO EARLY FRIDAY AFTERNOON. WINDS ARE
FORECAST TO DECREASE LATER FRIDAY AFTERNOON HOWEVER REMAIN FAIRLY
BREEZY.

LATE ON FRIDAY...EXPECT INCREASING CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS ALONG AND BEHIND THE COLD FRONT. THERE IS AMPLE
MOISTURE...INSTABILITY...OROGRAPHIC AND SYNOPTIC SCALE LIFT TO
SUPPORT AS LEAST SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS.

SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...THE CLOSED LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS FORECAST
TO MOVE NORTHEAST ACROSS NORTHERN ARIZONA UP INTO SOUTHERN UTAH
SATURDAY...WITH A ANOTHER DISTURBANCE ROTATING SOUTH-SOUTHEAST
THROUGH NEVADA-CALIFORNIA TO REINFORCE ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS ON
SUNDAY. THERE WILL BE CONTINUED CHANCES OF SHOWERS EACH DAY WITH
THE BEST CHANCES FOR SHOWERS FROM LATE MORNING INTO EARLY
EVENING...WHICH IS ASSOCIATED WITH THE DAYTIME HEATING AND THE
BEST INSTABILITY. ISOLATED AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS ARE A
POSSIBILITY ON BOTH DAYS.

MONDAY AND TUESDAY...NORTHERN ARIZONA WILL STILL BE IN THE REACHES
OF THE DEPARTING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM...WHICH WILL PROVIDE
SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY...WEAK LIFT AND JUST ENOUGH MOISTURE FOR A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF AFTERNOON SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS WITH THE
BETTER PROBABILITIES BEING ON MONDAY. WEST TO NORTHWEST FLOW WILL
BRING SOME WEAK COLD ADVECTION...HOWEVER HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE
ABLE TO RISE CLOSE TO NORMAL VALUES.

&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 06Z PACKAGE...LOOK FOR VFR CONDITIONS UNDER
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. GENERALLY LIGHT WINDS ARE
EXPECTED OVERNIGHT...BUT WILL BECOME SOUTH-SOUTHWEST AT 10-20 KTS
AFTER 16Z. AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR TAF AMENDMENTS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...EXPECT DRY AND WARM CONDITIONS THROUGH THURSDAY.
BREEZY SOUTH-SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL DEVELOP ON WEDNESDAY...THEN TURN
STRONGER ON THURSDAY. CONDITIONS NEAR CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER
THRESHOLDS WILL BE POSSIBLE ON THURSDAY.

FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...LOW PRESSURE WILL IMPACT NORTHERN ARIZONA
BRINGING MUCH COLDER TEMPERATURES AND AREAS OF SHOWERS INTO THE
WEEKEND. GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS ARE ALSO LIKELY...ESPECIALLY FOR
FRIDAY.

&&

.FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC...MCCOLLUM/TC
AVIATION...MCCOLLUM


FOR NORTHERN ARIZONA WEATHER INFORMATION VISIT
WEATHER.GOV/FLAGSTAFF




000
FXUS65 KFGZ 032246
AFDFGZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ
346 PM MST TUE MAY 3 2016

.SYNOPSIS...HIGH PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO BRING DRY CONDITIONS AND
WARMER TEMPERATURES WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. A FAIRLY LARGE AND
STRONG WEATHER SYSTEM WILL BRING WINDY SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...WITH COOL AND UNSETTLED CONDITIONS FROM
FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND.
&&

.DISCUSSION...HIGH PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO MOVE ACROSS THE AREA
THROUGH WEDNESDAY. THIS WEATHER PATTERN WILL BRING WARM HIGH
TEMPERATURES AND DRY CONDITIONS THROUGH THURSDAY.

A FAIRLY LARGE CLOSED LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO DROP
SOUTH ALONG THE CALIFORNIA COAST ON WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...WINDY
SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS ARE FORECAST TO DEVELOP THURSDAY
AFTERNOON WITH SOUTHERLY WINDS 15-30 MPH AND GUSTS FROM 25-45
MPH...WITH THE STRONGEST WINDS OVER PORTIONS OF YAVAPAI AND
COCONINO COUNTIES. FOR FRIDAY THE SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS ARE
FORECAST TO INCREASE...WINDS 15-30 MPH AND GUSTS FROM 25-45 MPH
FRIDAY MORNING OVER EASTERN COCONINO COUNTY AND NAVAJO AND APACHE
COUNTIES AND CONTINUE INTO EARLY FRIDAY AFTERNOON. WINDS ARE
FORECAST TO DECREASE LATER FRIDAY AFTERNOON HOWEVER REMAIN FAIRLY
BREEZY.

LATE ON FRIDAY...EXPECT INCREASING CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS ALONG AND BEHIND THE COLD FRONT. THERE IS AMPLE
MOISTURE...INSTABILITY...OROGRAPHIC AND SYNOPTIC SCALE LIFT TO
SUPPORT AS LEAST SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS.

SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...THE CLOSED LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS FORECAST
TO MOVE NORTHEAST ACROSS NORTHERN ARIZONA UP INTO SOUTHERN UTAH
SATURDAY...WITH A ANOTHER DISTURBANCE ROTATING SOUTH-SOUTHEAST
THROUGH NEVADA-CALIFORNIA TO REINFORCE ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS ON
SUNDAY. THERE WILL BE CONTINUED CHANCES OF SHOWERS EACH DAY WITH
THE BEST CHANCES FOR SHOWERS FROM LATE MORNING INTO EARLY
EVENING...WHICH IS ASSOCIATED WITH THE DAYTIME HEATING AND THE
BEST INSTABILITY. ISOLATED AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS ARE A
POSSIBILITY ON BOTH DAYS.

MONDAY AND TUESDAY...NORTHERN ARIZONA WILL STILL BE IN THE REACHES
OF THE DEPARTING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM...WHICH WILL PROVIDE
SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY...WEAK LIFT AND JUST ENOUGH MOISTURE FOR A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF AFTERNOON SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS WITH THE
BETTER PROBABILITIES BEING ON MONDAY. WEST TO NORTHWEST FLOW WILL
BRING SOME WEAK COLD ADVECTION...HOWEVER HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE
ABLE TO RISE CLOSE TO NORMAL VALUES.
&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 00Z PACKAGE...EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS UNDER
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES THROUGH THE 24HR TAF PERIOD. GENERALLY LIGHT
WINDS ARE EXPECTED OVERNIGHT...BUT WILL BECOME BREEZY OUT OF THE
SOUTH-SOUTHWEST AFTER 16Z WEDNESDAY. AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED
FOR TAF AMENDMENTS.
&&

.FIRE WEATHER...EXPECT DRY AND WARM CONDITIONS THROUGH THURSDAY.
BREEZY SOUTH-SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL DEVELOP ON WEDNESDAY...THEN TURN
STRONGER ON THURSDAY. CONDITIONS NEAR CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER
THRESHOLDS WILL BE POSSIBLE ON THURSDAY.

FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...LOW PRESSURE WILL IMPACT NORTHERN ARIZONA
BRINGING MUCH COLDER TEMPERATURES AND AREAS OF SHOWERS INTO THE
WEEKEND. GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS ARE ALSO LIKELY...ESPECIALLY FOR
FRIDAY.
&&

.FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&

$$

PUBLIC...TC
AVIATION...KD
FIRE WEATHER...KD


FOR NORTHERN ARIZONA WEATHER INFORMATION VISIT
WEATHER.GOV/FLAGSTAFF




000
FXUS65 KPSR 032147
AFDPSR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PHOENIX AZ
247 PM MST TUE MAY 3 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
TEMPERATURES WILL QUICKLY WARM TODAY AND PEAK WEDNESDAY UNDER HIGH
PRESSURE. SOME LOWER DESERTS WILL APPROACH TRIPLE DIGITS. THE HEAT
WILL NOT LAST LONG AS ANOTHER STORM SYSTEM ROLLS IN FROM THE PACIFIC.
WINDS WILL INCREASE WEDNESDAY AND BE STRONGEST THURSDAY LEADING TO
AREAS OF BLOWING DUST. FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND WILL FEATURE BELOW
NORMAL TEMPERATURES...VARIOUS CLOUD COVER...AND MODEST CHANCES FOR
RAIN.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
CLEAR AND WARM ACROSS THE NWS PHOENIX FORECAST AREA THIS AFTERNOON.
TEMPERATURES AT 2 PM WERE GENERALLY ABOUT 5 DEGREES WARMER THAN THIS
TIME YESTERDAY. DETERMINISTIC/ENSEMBLE MODELS REMAIN IN GOOD
AGREEMENT ON THE FORECAST THROUGH THE NEXT FIVE DAYS.

FOR WEDNESDAY...RIDGE OVERHEAD WILL BE MIGRATING WEST AS THE LARGE
UPSTREAM CLOSED LOW CONTINUES TO TAKE SHAPE AND MOVE INLAND. THE
RESULT WILL BE A SOMEWHAT BREEZY DAY BUT MORE NOTABLY VERY WARM
TEMPERATURES. WE ARE STILL FORECASTING PHOENIX TO HIT ITS FIRST 100
DEGREE DAY...WHICH DURING THE 1981-2010 PERIOD HAPPENS ON AVERAGE BY
MAY 2. ALL THE MODEL DATA IS TIGHTLY CLUSTERED IN THE 99-101 RANGE
THOUGH MIXING OUT BOUNDARY LAYER TEMPERATURES WOULD INDICATE THE
LOWER END OF THE RANGE MAY BE MORE LIKELY. IF WE DO END UP MISSING
IT TOMORROW IT WILL LIKELY BE A WHILE BEFORE WE HAVE ANOTHER CHANCE
AT IT. WINDS ARE NOT LOOKING QUITE AS STRONG FOR TOMORROW/WEDNESDAY
AS ORIGINALLY THOUGHT SO WE DID REMOVE THE BLOWING DUST FROM THE
FORECAST.

THE SYSTEM CONTINUES TO MOVE IN THURSDAY AND WIND FIELDS INCREASE IN
RESPONSE. WHILE WE ARE STILL A BIT BELOW WI.Y CRITERIA IT WILL FEEL
LIKE A WINDY DAY FOR MOST AREAS AND WE STILL EXPECT BLOWING DUST TO
BE AN ISSUE. WE MAY NEED A WI.Y AND/OR BD.Y FOR THIS EVENT.

THE LOW WILL MOVE ONSHORE FRIDAY. WHILE IVT VALUES AREN/T FORECAST TO
BE VERY HIGH BY THE GEFS /LIKELY REMAINING BELOW 250 KG/M/S BUT ABOVE
150/ THERE WILL BE ENOUGH TO EVENTUALLY GET SOME LIGHT TO MODERATE
SHOWERS GOING. THE EC IS A BIT FASTER SHOWING THE MOISTURE FLUX
INCREASING ENOUGH DURING THE DAY FRIDAY TO GET SHOWERS GOING BUT THE
GEFS AND SREF REALLY HOLD OFF UNTIL FRIDAY NIGHT. PREFER THE SLIGHTLY
SLOWER AND MORE SUPPORTED OPTION. ONCE SHOWERS GET GOING FRIDAY NIGHT
A GENERALLY SOUTHWEST FLOW MAY KEEP SOME UPSLOPE SHOWER ACTIVITY
GOING INTO SATURDAY AND MAYBE SUNDAY. BURF SOUNDINGS SUPPORT SOME
MINOR INSTABILITY WITH THIS SYSTEM SO THUNDERSTORMS ARE NOT OUT OF
THE QUESTION.

THE SYSTEM BECOMES MORE DIFFUSE AND BEGINS TO SWIRL TO THE NORTHEAST
SUNDAY WITH A BROAD RIDGE BUILDING IN MONDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL BEGIN
TO WARM TOWARD SEASONAL NORMALS WITH CLEARING SKY.

&&

.AVIATION...
SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA INCLUDING KPHX...KIWA...AND KSDL...AND...
SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA/SOUTHWEST ARIZONA INCLUDING KIPL AND KBLH...

AS HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO BUILD OVER THE AREA NO AVIATION
IMPACTS ARE EXPECTED THROUGHOUT THE TAF PERIOD. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT
TO OCCASIONALLY CALM AND FAVOR NORMAL DIURNAL PATTERNS. SKIES WILL
ALSO REMAIN CLEAR TO MOSTLY CLEAR WITH ONLY A FEW OCCASIONAL HIGH OR
MID LEVEL CLOUDS PASSING THROUGH.

AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDED TAFS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

...FIRE WEATHER WATCH THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING ACROSS
SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH CENTRAL ARIZONA...

FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...
WITH A LARGE COOL PACIFIC LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IN PLACE EXPECT COOLER
AND WELL BELOW NORMAL AFTERNOON HIGH TEMPERATURES TROUGH SUNDAY AND
MODERATELY BELOW NORMAL HIGHS BY MONDAY. THE RELATIVELY MOIST AIRMASS
WILL SUPPORT MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITIES IN THE 20 TO 25 PERCENT
RANGE THROUGH SATURDAY. BREEZY TO OCCASIONALLY WINDY SOUTHWEST WINDS
ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP FRIDAY AFTERNOON WITH GUSTS IN THE 15 TO 25
MPH RANGE IN THE LOWER DESERTS AND 20 TO 30 MPH IN THE TONTO
FOOTHILLS AND SOUTHERN GILA COUNTY AND SOUTHEAST CA. WINDS WILL
DECREASE TO THE 10 TO 15 MPH RANGE SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY
AFTERNOON. IN ADDITION...A SLIGHT CHANCE OF AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE FROM LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING
ON FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.

&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED.

&&

.PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AZ...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM THURSDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH THURSDAY
     EVENING FOR AZZ132-133.

CA...NONE.
&&

$$

VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/PHOENIX

DISCUSSION...INIGUEZ
AVIATION...SAWTELLE
FIRE WEATHER...SAWTELLE




000
FXUS65 KTWC 032124
AFDTWC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ
223 PM MST TUE MAY 3 2016

.SYNOPSIS...HIGH PRESSURE WILL PROVIDE DRY CONDITIONS WITH A STRONG
WARMING TREND THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK.  ANOTHER STORM SYSTEM
WILL BRING WINDY CONDITIONS THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...ALONG WITH COOLER
TEMPERATURES AND A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS THIS WEEKEND.

&&

.DISCUSSION...WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS AN AMPLIFIED HIGH PRESSURE
RIDGE TO OUR NORTH WITH THE TAIL END OF A SYSTEM CURRENTLY SKIRTING
ACROSS THE FOUR CORNERS REGION AND SLIDING SOUTH. MEANWHILE...A
PACIFIC SYSTEM IS OFF THE WEST COAST AND WILL BE THE SYSTEM THAT
EVENTUALLY GIVES US INCREASING WINDS THURSDAY AND A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
SHOWERS FRIDAY THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. IR AND VISIBLE SATELLITE
IMAGERY SHOWS MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES ACROSS ARIZONA AT THIS TIME...WITH
THE EXCEPTION OF SOME CUMULUS DEVELOPMENT OVER THE WHITE MOUNTAINS
OF EAST CENTRAL ARIZONA AND EXTENDING INTO NEW MEXICO.

MODELS INDICATE THAT THE AFOREMENTIONED TROUGH AXIS NEAR THE FOUR
CORNERS WILL CONTINUE TO SLIDE RAPIDLY TO THE SOUTHEAST OVERNIGHT
AND INTO WEDNESDAY...WITH THIS SYSTEM DIVING INTO SOUTHERN PLAINS.
MEANWHILE...THE RIDGE TO OUR NORTH WILL STRENGTHEN AND CONSOLIDATE
IN A POSITION THAT WILL STRADDLE THE AZ/NM STATE LINE AND EXTEND
NORTH INTO THE NORTHERN ROCKIES/PLAINS BY EARLY WEDNESDAY. AS A
RESULT...WE WILL SEE OUR HOTTEST DAY OF THE WEEK OCCUR WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON WITH READINGS FOR THE CENTRAL AND WESTERN DESERTS IN THE
MID TO UPPER 90S. IN ADDITION...AT THE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL
SETTLE IN OVER THE FRONT RANGE OF THE ROCKIES WHICH WILL RESULT IN A
TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS SOUTHEAST ARIZONA. MOS WIND GUIDANCE
IS ADVERTISING AN INCREASE IN EAST TO SOUTHEAST WINDS TOWARD SUNRISE
WEDNESDAY MORNING AND CONTINUING THROUGH AROUND MIDDAY BEFORE
SLACKENING DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON HOURS AS THE GRADIENT BEGINS
TO RELAX.

THE RIDGE AXIS WILL MOVE EAST THURSDAY IN RESPONSE TO AN UPPER LOW
OFF THE WEST COAST MAKING ITS WAY TOWARD THE SOUTH CENTRAL
CALIFORNIA COAST BY LATE IN THE DAY ON THURSDAY. AS THIS OCCURS...
WINDS AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM WILL INCREASE CONSIDERABLY FROM THE
SOUTHWEST...ESPECIALLY FOR CENTRAL AND WESTERN AREAS. THIS HAS
PROMPTED THE ISSUANCE OF A FIRE WEATHER WATCH FOR LATE THURSDAY
MORNING AND INTO THE EVENING (SEE THE FIRE WEATHER SECTION BELOW FOR
FURTHER DETAILS). AS THE LOW CONTINUES TO SLOWLY MARCH TO THE
EAST...WINDS WILL LINGER INTO FRIDAY...BUT WILL SHIFT EASTWARD AND
AFFECT MOSTLY AREAS BETWEEN TUCSON AND THE NEW MEXICO BORDER. FOR
NOW WE HAVE OPTED NOT TO ISSUE A FIRE WEATHER WATCH FOR FRIDAY...BUT
SUBSEQUENT SHIFT WILL NEED TO TAKE A CLOSER LOOK AT THE WINDS FOR
FRIDAY.

THIS SYSTEM WILL ALSO BRING A THREAT FOR SHOWERS...ALTHOUGH AT THIS
TIME IT SEEMS IT WILL BE FAIRLY SMALL. THAT SAID...THE MAIN FOCUS
FOR THIS THREAT WILL BE MAINLY ACROSS NORTHERN FRINGES OF MY
FORECAST AREA AND THIS WILL BEGIN FRIDAY AND CONTINUE THROUGH EARLY
NEXT WEEK AS THE LOW FINALLY EXITS THE REGION.

FOR TUCSON...HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE AROUND 10 DEGS ABOVE NORMAL
WEDNESDAY AND 5 TO 10 DEGS ABOVE NORMAL THURSDAY. FOR THE PERIOD
FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY HIGHS WILL BE BELOW NORMAL...ALTHOUGH THE
COOLEST DAYS WILL OCCUR OVER THE WEEKEND WHEN HIGHS WILL RANGE FROM
10 TO 15 DEGS BELOW NORMAL. NEAR NORMAL HIGHS EXPECTED BY TUESDAY.
LOW TEMPS WILL BE AROUND 5 DEGS ABOVE NORMAL WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY
MORNINGS...THEN NEAR NORMAL FRIDAY. THEREAFTER...LOWS AROUND 6 TO 8
DEGS BELOW NORMAL FOR THE WEEKEND INTO MONDAY...THEN ABOUT 2 TO 4
DEGS BELOW NORMAL FOR TUESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...VALID THRU 04/23Z.
FEW-SCT CLOUDS AT 8-12K FT AGL MAINLY NORTHEAST OF KSAD THRU
04/03Z...OTHERWISE SKC CONDITIONS/CLEAR SKIES THRU THE FORECAST
PERIOD. SURFACE WIND GENERALLY LESS THAN 10 KTS THRU 04/06Z.
INCREASING SURFACE WIND AFT 04/06Z...WITH ELY/SELY SURFACE WIND AT
14-20 KTS AND GUSTS TO 20-25 KTS BY 04/12Z...CONTINUING THRU 04/20Z.
DIMINISHING SURFACE WIND AFT 04/20Z. AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED
FOR TAF AMENDMENTS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...DRY CONDITIONS WITH A STRONG WARMING TREND IS
EXPECTED THROUGH WEDNESDAY. A BOUNDARY WILL MOVE ACROSS SOUTHEAST
ARIZONA FROM THE EAST TONIGHT...WITH GUSTY EAST TO SOUTHEAST WINDS
OVERSPREADING THE EASTERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA LATE TONIGHT
THROUGH MID-DAY WEDNESDAY FROM THE NEW MEXICO BORDER TO TUCSON. WIND
SPEEDS ARE EXPECTED TO STAY BELOW CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER THRESHOLDS.

STRONG AND GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL THEN RETURN THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY AS A STORM SYSTEM MOVES INTO THE REGION FROM THE WEST. THE
STRONGEST WINDS ON THURSDAY WILL MAINLY BE FROM THE TUCSON METRO
AREA WESTWARD...WITH THE CORE OF THE STRONG WINDS SHIFTING EASTWARD
FROM TUCSON INTO COCHISE COUNTY AND AREAS ADJACENT TO THE NEW MEXICO
BORDER ON FRIDAY. A FIRE WEATHER WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT THURSDAY
MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING FOR STRONG WINDS...LOW RELATIVE
HUMIDITIES AND A HIGH FIRE DANGER RATING FOR FIRE WEATHER ZONES 150
AND 151.

THE THREAT FOR CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS CONTINUES ON FRIDAY
FOR EASTERN AREAS. MOST LIKELY A FIRE WEATHER WATCH WILL BE ISSUED
ON SUBSEQUENT SHIFTS AS WE GET CLOSER TO FRIDAY FOR AREAS EAST OF
TUCSON TO THE NEW MEXICO BORDER.

COOLER TEMPERATURES AND INCREASED MOISTURE WILL THEN MOVE INTO THE
AREA LATE FRIDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THIS WILL RESULT IN A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF SHOWERS FOR MOST LOCATIONS ALONG WITH BREEZES PERSISTING
THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
    FIRE WEATHER WATCH LATE THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY
     EVENING FOR FIRE ZONES AZZ150-151

&&

$$

PUBLIC...MOLLERE
AVIATION/FIRE WEATHER...ZELL

VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...YOUTUBE...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/TUCSON




000
FXUS65 KPSR 031701
AFDPSR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PHOENIX AZ
1001 AM MST TUE MAY 3 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
TEMPERATURES WILL QUICKLY WARM TODAY AND PEAK WEDNESDAY UNDER HIGH
PRESSURE. SOME LOWER DESERTS WILL APPROACH TRIPLE DIGITS. THE HEAT
WILL NOT LAST LONG AS ANOTHER STORM SYSTEM ROLLS IN FROM THE PACIFIC.
WINDS WILL INCREASE WEDNESDAY AND BE STRONGEST THURSDAY LEADING TO
AREAS OF BLOWING DUST. FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND WILL FEATURE BELOW
NORMAL TEMPERATURES...VARIOUS CLOUD COVER...AND MODEST CHANCES FOR
RAIN.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
NOT MUCH CHANGE FOR THE FORECAST THIS MORNING. CURRENT 24-HOUR
TEMPERATURE TRENDS ARE A LITTLE BEHIND FORECAST VALUES. HAVE NUDGED
HIGH TEMPERATURES DOWN JUST A LITTLE BIT BASED ON THOSE TRENDS AND
LATEST BIAS-CORRECTED NUMERICAL GUIDANCE. OTHERWISE WE WILL CONTINUE
TO FOCUS ON THE INCOMING STORM SYSTEM...CURRENTLY TAKING SHAPE WEST
OF CALIFORNIA. IT IS EXHIBITING CONVECTIVE INSTABILITY IN THE CENTER
OF THE LOW...LOOKS LIKE IT/LL BE THE STRONG AND DYNAMIC SYSTEM WE/VE
ANTICIPATED FOR SEVERAL DAYS NOW.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
CONSENSUS AND NAM/GFS MOS HAVE BEGUN TO ADVERTISE 100F FOR PHOENIX
ON WEDNESDAY. UNDERSTANDING EVEN THE WARM BIASED BC GUIDANCE HAS THE
INFLUENCE OF THE LAST FEW DAYS OF BELOW AVERAGE TEMPERATURES...FELT
COMFORTABLE ENOUGH NUDGING UP FORECAST VALUES TO 100F FOR PHOENIX.
CLIMATOLOGICAL FIRST OBSERVANCE OVER THE LAST NORMAL PERIOD /98-10/
FALLS ON MAY 2ND...SO WE ARE CLOSE. YUMA STILL HAS TO HIT THEIR FIRST
100F OF 2016 ALSO...WITH APRIL 22ND THEIR AVERAGE FIRST OBSERVANCE
OVER THE LAST NORMAL PERIOD. YUMA COULD GET CLOSE ON WEDNESDAY
HOWEVER...500MB HEIGHTS BEGIN TO FALL ACROSS THE WESTERN FORECAST
AREA ZONES BY WEDNESDAY /SOUTH OF 580DM/ RELEGATING THEIR CHANCES
DEPENDENT TO THE WAA AND STRONG SOUTHERLY FLOW THAT BEGINS DURING THE
DAY.

WHILE THE WARMTH WILL BE THE MAIN HEADLINE WEDNESDAY...SOUTHERLY
WINDS WILL BECOME NOTICEABLE STRONGER AS THE AFOREMENTIONED PACIFIC
TROUGH BEGINS TO MOVE INTO THE WEST COAST. WINDS WILL BECOME STRONGER
FOR THURSDAY AS 55-PLUS KT 500MB AND 80-PLUS KT 300MB JET NOSES INTO
THE AREA AHEAD OF THE MAIN LOW CIRCULATION. DUST AND ASSOCIATED VSBY
RESTRICTIONS ARE PRESENT FOR WEDNESDAY WITH A MORE LOCAL FOCUS...BUT
BECOME A REGIONAL CONCERN ACROSS THE MAJORITY OF THE LOWER DESERT
ELEVATIONS THURSDAY. FORECAST SFC WINDS CONTINUE TO SIT WITHIN GEFS
UPPER PERCENTILE FORECASTS AND NEAR WIND ADVISORY THRESHOLDS.
COMBINATION OF STRONG WINDS AND LOW HUMIDITIES LEND THEMSELVES TO
FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS AS WELL THURSDAY AND AS SUCH A FIRE WEATHER
WATCH HAS BEEN POSTED FOR THE CENTRAL AZ ZONES/DISTRICTS JUST EAST OF
THE CO RIVER VALLEY. BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON THE UPPER LOW CENTER IN
PLOTTED NORTH OF THE L.A. BASIN...JUST OFF-SHORE.

MOISTURE PARAMETERS...PWAT OUTPUTS FROM GFS/GEFS AND MIXING RATIOS
FROM ECMWF...ARE BEGINNING TO FOCUS ON THE FIRST WAVE OF ACTIONABLE
MOISTURE IN COMBINATION WITH A VORT MAX/FROPA FOR
FRIDAY...PARTICULARLY IN THE AFTERNOON HOURS. STRONG UPSTREAM
HEIGHTS AND LL JET WINDS DOWN THE CA COAST SHOULD BE ABLE TO
TRANSPORT MARINE MOISTURE INLAND FOR FRIDAY WITH PWATS HEADING NORTH
TOWARD 0.75 INCH VALUES. FURTHER IMPROVEMENT OF GEFS REFORECAST POPS
AND FINER TIMING DETAILS LEAD ME TO NUDGE FCST POPS FOR FRIDAY INTO
THE CHANCE CATEGORY ACROSS SOUTH-CENTRAL AZ AND ALSO INCLUDE MENTION
OF THUNDER. TIMING OF COLDEST TEMPERATURES ALOFT AND LIS ARE NOT
PERFECTLY ALIGNED WITH PEAK HEATING...BUT GIVEN VERTICAL MOTION
ASSOCIATED WITH THE HEIGHT FALLS TRANSITIONING INTO THE AREA FELT
THUNDER MENTION WAS WARRANTED. SIGNIFICANT COOLING TREND IS STILL ON
TAP...WITH HIGHS DIPPING BACK INTO THE 70S/LOW 80S FOR MOST DESERT
LOCALES AND UPPER 60S/LOW 70S FOR THE NEARBY FOOTHILLS AND HIGHER
TERRAIN FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.

HEADING INTO THE WEEKEND THE FORECAST REMAINS BROADLY COVERED BY
SLIGHT CHANCE POPS...COOLER TEMPERATURES AND PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY
SKIES. THIS LATEST TROUGH CUTOFFS...SIMILAR TO SYSTEMS EARLIER THIS
SPRING...AND BEGINS TO SEND EMBEDDED SHORTWAVE/VORT LOBES THROUGH THE
REGION AT VARIOUS TIMES. LATEST DETERMINISTIC AND ENSEMBLE STORM
TRACK FORECASTS EVENTUALLY DRAW THE SYSTEM EASTWARD BY EARLY NEXT
WEEK WITH PACIFIC HIGH PRESSURE TRANSITIONING INTO THE WEST.

&&

.AVIATION...
SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA INCLUDING KPHX...KIWA...AND KSDL...AND...
SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA/SOUTHWEST ARIZONA INCLUDING KIPL AND KBLH...

A HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BUILD OVER THE REGION. STABLE CONDITIONS
WILL RESULT IN MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES WITH LIGHT WIND UNDER 6 KNOTS
THROUGH AT LEAST 23Z TUE.

AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDED TAFS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY...
...FIRE WEATHER WATCH THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING ACROSS
SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH CENTRAL ARIZONA...

THURSDAY...A PACIFIC COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA
THURSDAY AFTERNOON. AHEAD OF THE FRONT...STRONG GUSTY SOUTH TO
SOUTHWEST WINDS 25 TO 35 MPH WILL DEVELOP OVER A LARGE PART OF
SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH CENTRAL ARIZONA.. WITH MINIMUM RELATIVE
HUMIDITIES FALLING BELOW 15 PERCENT...A FIRE WEATHER WATCH HAS BEEN
POSTED.

FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...BEHIND THURSDAYS COLD FRONT...A LARGE COOL
PACIFIC LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BECOME NEARLY STATIONARY OVER THE
REGION. THIS WILL PROVIDE COOLER AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES...ALONG WITH
A RELATIVELY MOIST AIRMASS. MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITIES WILL RANGE
FROM 20 TO 25 PERCENT. AFTERNOON SOUTHWEST WINDS IN THE 15 TO 25 MPH
RANGE WILL DEVELOP FRIDAY...DECREASING INTO THE 10 TO 15 MPH RANGE
SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON. ADDITIONALLY...A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
AFTERNOON SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE MAINLY OVER THE MOUNTAINS NORTH
THROUGH EAST OF PHOENIX.

&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED.

&&

.PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AZ...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM THURSDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH THURSDAY
     EVENING FOR AZZ132-133.

CA...NONE.
&&

$$

VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/PHOENIX

DISCUSSION...INIGUEZ/NOLTE
AVIATION...VASQUEZ
FIRE WEATHER...VASQUEZ




000
FXUS65 KPSR 031701
AFDPSR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PHOENIX AZ
1001 AM MST TUE MAY 3 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
TEMPERATURES WILL QUICKLY WARM TODAY AND PEAK WEDNESDAY UNDER HIGH
PRESSURE. SOME LOWER DESERTS WILL APPROACH TRIPLE DIGITS. THE HEAT
WILL NOT LAST LONG AS ANOTHER STORM SYSTEM ROLLS IN FROM THE PACIFIC.
WINDS WILL INCREASE WEDNESDAY AND BE STRONGEST THURSDAY LEADING TO
AREAS OF BLOWING DUST. FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND WILL FEATURE BELOW
NORMAL TEMPERATURES...VARIOUS CLOUD COVER...AND MODEST CHANCES FOR
RAIN.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
NOT MUCH CHANGE FOR THE FORECAST THIS MORNING. CURRENT 24-HOUR
TEMPERATURE TRENDS ARE A LITTLE BEHIND FORECAST VALUES. HAVE NUDGED
HIGH TEMPERATURES DOWN JUST A LITTLE BIT BASED ON THOSE TRENDS AND
LATEST BIAS-CORRECTED NUMERICAL GUIDANCE. OTHERWISE WE WILL CONTINUE
TO FOCUS ON THE INCOMING STORM SYSTEM...CURRENTLY TAKING SHAPE WEST
OF CALIFORNIA. IT IS EXHIBITING CONVECTIVE INSTABILITY IN THE CENTER
OF THE LOW...LOOKS LIKE IT/LL BE THE STRONG AND DYNAMIC SYSTEM WE/VE
ANTICIPATED FOR SEVERAL DAYS NOW.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
CONSENSUS AND NAM/GFS MOS HAVE BEGUN TO ADVERTISE 100F FOR PHOENIX
ON WEDNESDAY. UNDERSTANDING EVEN THE WARM BIASED BC GUIDANCE HAS THE
INFLUENCE OF THE LAST FEW DAYS OF BELOW AVERAGE TEMPERATURES...FELT
COMFORTABLE ENOUGH NUDGING UP FORECAST VALUES TO 100F FOR PHOENIX.
CLIMATOLOGICAL FIRST OBSERVANCE OVER THE LAST NORMAL PERIOD /98-10/
FALLS ON MAY 2ND...SO WE ARE CLOSE. YUMA STILL HAS TO HIT THEIR FIRST
100F OF 2016 ALSO...WITH APRIL 22ND THEIR AVERAGE FIRST OBSERVANCE
OVER THE LAST NORMAL PERIOD. YUMA COULD GET CLOSE ON WEDNESDAY
HOWEVER...500MB HEIGHTS BEGIN TO FALL ACROSS THE WESTERN FORECAST
AREA ZONES BY WEDNESDAY /SOUTH OF 580DM/ RELEGATING THEIR CHANCES
DEPENDENT TO THE WAA AND STRONG SOUTHERLY FLOW THAT BEGINS DURING THE
DAY.

WHILE THE WARMTH WILL BE THE MAIN HEADLINE WEDNESDAY...SOUTHERLY
WINDS WILL BECOME NOTICEABLE STRONGER AS THE AFOREMENTIONED PACIFIC
TROUGH BEGINS TO MOVE INTO THE WEST COAST. WINDS WILL BECOME STRONGER
FOR THURSDAY AS 55-PLUS KT 500MB AND 80-PLUS KT 300MB JET NOSES INTO
THE AREA AHEAD OF THE MAIN LOW CIRCULATION. DUST AND ASSOCIATED VSBY
RESTRICTIONS ARE PRESENT FOR WEDNESDAY WITH A MORE LOCAL FOCUS...BUT
BECOME A REGIONAL CONCERN ACROSS THE MAJORITY OF THE LOWER DESERT
ELEVATIONS THURSDAY. FORECAST SFC WINDS CONTINUE TO SIT WITHIN GEFS
UPPER PERCENTILE FORECASTS AND NEAR WIND ADVISORY THRESHOLDS.
COMBINATION OF STRONG WINDS AND LOW HUMIDITIES LEND THEMSELVES TO
FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS AS WELL THURSDAY AND AS SUCH A FIRE WEATHER
WATCH HAS BEEN POSTED FOR THE CENTRAL AZ ZONES/DISTRICTS JUST EAST OF
THE CO RIVER VALLEY. BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON THE UPPER LOW CENTER IN
PLOTTED NORTH OF THE L.A. BASIN...JUST OFF-SHORE.

MOISTURE PARAMETERS...PWAT OUTPUTS FROM GFS/GEFS AND MIXING RATIOS
FROM ECMWF...ARE BEGINNING TO FOCUS ON THE FIRST WAVE OF ACTIONABLE
MOISTURE IN COMBINATION WITH A VORT MAX/FROPA FOR
FRIDAY...PARTICULARLY IN THE AFTERNOON HOURS. STRONG UPSTREAM
HEIGHTS AND LL JET WINDS DOWN THE CA COAST SHOULD BE ABLE TO
TRANSPORT MARINE MOISTURE INLAND FOR FRIDAY WITH PWATS HEADING NORTH
TOWARD 0.75 INCH VALUES. FURTHER IMPROVEMENT OF GEFS REFORECAST POPS
AND FINER TIMING DETAILS LEAD ME TO NUDGE FCST POPS FOR FRIDAY INTO
THE CHANCE CATEGORY ACROSS SOUTH-CENTRAL AZ AND ALSO INCLUDE MENTION
OF THUNDER. TIMING OF COLDEST TEMPERATURES ALOFT AND LIS ARE NOT
PERFECTLY ALIGNED WITH PEAK HEATING...BUT GIVEN VERTICAL MOTION
ASSOCIATED WITH THE HEIGHT FALLS TRANSITIONING INTO THE AREA FELT
THUNDER MENTION WAS WARRANTED. SIGNIFICANT COOLING TREND IS STILL ON
TAP...WITH HIGHS DIPPING BACK INTO THE 70S/LOW 80S FOR MOST DESERT
LOCALES AND UPPER 60S/LOW 70S FOR THE NEARBY FOOTHILLS AND HIGHER
TERRAIN FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.

HEADING INTO THE WEEKEND THE FORECAST REMAINS BROADLY COVERED BY
SLIGHT CHANCE POPS...COOLER TEMPERATURES AND PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY
SKIES. THIS LATEST TROUGH CUTOFFS...SIMILAR TO SYSTEMS EARLIER THIS
SPRING...AND BEGINS TO SEND EMBEDDED SHORTWAVE/VORT LOBES THROUGH THE
REGION AT VARIOUS TIMES. LATEST DETERMINISTIC AND ENSEMBLE STORM
TRACK FORECASTS EVENTUALLY DRAW THE SYSTEM EASTWARD BY EARLY NEXT
WEEK WITH PACIFIC HIGH PRESSURE TRANSITIONING INTO THE WEST.

&&

.AVIATION...
SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA INCLUDING KPHX...KIWA...AND KSDL...AND...
SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA/SOUTHWEST ARIZONA INCLUDING KIPL AND KBLH...

A HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BUILD OVER THE REGION. STABLE CONDITIONS
WILL RESULT IN MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES WITH LIGHT WIND UNDER 6 KNOTS
THROUGH AT LEAST 23Z TUE.

AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDED TAFS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY...
...FIRE WEATHER WATCH THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING ACROSS
SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH CENTRAL ARIZONA...

THURSDAY...A PACIFIC COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA
THURSDAY AFTERNOON. AHEAD OF THE FRONT...STRONG GUSTY SOUTH TO
SOUTHWEST WINDS 25 TO 35 MPH WILL DEVELOP OVER A LARGE PART OF
SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH CENTRAL ARIZONA.. WITH MINIMUM RELATIVE
HUMIDITIES FALLING BELOW 15 PERCENT...A FIRE WEATHER WATCH HAS BEEN
POSTED.

FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...BEHIND THURSDAYS COLD FRONT...A LARGE COOL
PACIFIC LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BECOME NEARLY STATIONARY OVER THE
REGION. THIS WILL PROVIDE COOLER AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES...ALONG WITH
A RELATIVELY MOIST AIRMASS. MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITIES WILL RANGE
FROM 20 TO 25 PERCENT. AFTERNOON SOUTHWEST WINDS IN THE 15 TO 25 MPH
RANGE WILL DEVELOP FRIDAY...DECREASING INTO THE 10 TO 15 MPH RANGE
SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON. ADDITIONALLY...A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
AFTERNOON SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE MAINLY OVER THE MOUNTAINS NORTH
THROUGH EAST OF PHOENIX.

&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED.

&&

.PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AZ...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM THURSDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH THURSDAY
     EVENING FOR AZZ132-133.

CA...NONE.
&&

$$

VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/PHOENIX

DISCUSSION...INIGUEZ/NOLTE
AVIATION...VASQUEZ
FIRE WEATHER...VASQUEZ




000
FXUS65 KFGZ 031646
AFDFGZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ
946 AM MST TUE MAY 3 2016

.SYNOPSIS...ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE IN
APACHE COUNTY THIS AFTERNOON. OTHERWISE...HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE
OVER ARIZONA FROM THE WEST WITH DRYING CONDITIONS AND WARMER
TEMPERATURES TODAY AND WEDNESDAY. A FAIRLY LARGE AND STRONG
WEATHER SYSTEM WILL BRING WINDY SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS THURSDAY
AND FRIDAY...WITH COOL AND UNSETTLED CONDITIONS FROM FRIDAY INTO
THE WEEKEND.
&&

.DISCUSSION...SOME MINOR UPDATES WERE MADE TO CLOUD COVER BY
REDUCING THE CLOUD COVER VALUES FOR THIS MORNING...ALSO CHANCES OF
PRECIPITATION HAVE BEEN REDUCE THROUGH NOON AND CHANCES OF
PRECIPITATION FOR THIS AFTERNOON. OTHERWISE HIGH PRESSURE IS
FORECAST TO BUILD INTO THE REGION WITH WARMER AND DRYING
CONDITIONS TODAY AND WEDNESDAY.
&&

.PREV DISCUSSION /416 AM MST/...A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE DIVING
SOUTH ACROSS THE GREAT PLAINS WILL INTERACT WITH RESIDUAL MOISTURE
OVER APACHE COUNTY TODAY WITH A FEW SHOWERS AND/OR THUNDERSTORMS
POSSIBLE. OTHERWISE... HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO ARIZONA FROM
THE WEST TODAY AND WEDNESDAY WITH DRYING CONDITIONS AND WARMER
DAYTIME TEMPERATURES.

A FAIRLY DEEP LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE
CALIFORNIA COAST LATE WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY AS THIS SYSTEM
APPROACHES NORTHERN ARIZONA...EXPECT SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS
WINDS TO DEVELOP THURSDAY AFTERNOON WITH SUSTAIN WINDS FROM 15 TO
30 MPH AND GUSTS FROM 25 TO 45 MPH. THE STRONGEST WINDS ON
THURSDAY ARE EXPECTED TO BE OVER PORTIONS OF WESTERN COCONINO AND
NORTHWESTERN YAVAPAI COUNTIES. ON FRIDAY...THE STRONGER WINDS WILL
SHIFT EAST INTO PORTIONS OF EASTERN COCONINO COUNTY, NAVAJO, AND
APACHE COUNTIES.

ON FRIDAY...EXPECT INCREASING CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS ALONG AND BEHIND THE COLD FRONT. THERE IS AMPLE
MOISTURE...INSTABILITY...OROGRAPHIC AND SYNOPTIC SCALE LIFT TO
SUPPORT AS LEAST SCATTERED SHOWERS.

SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...THE CLOSED LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL REMAIN
OVER PARTS OF NORTHERN ARIZONA AND COLORADO WITH MULTIPLE
DISTURBANCES ROTATING AROUND THE CLOSED LOW. THERE WILL BE
CONTINUED CHANCES OF SHOWERS EACH DAY WITH THE BEST CHANCES FOR
SHOWERS FROM LATE MORNING INTO EARLY EVENING...ASSOCIATED WITH THE
DAYTIME HEATING AND THE BEST INSTABILITY. ISOLATED AFTERNOON
THUNDERSTORMS ARE A POSSIBILITY ON BOTH DAYS.

MONDAY...FORECAST MODELS INDICATE THE LAST AND FINAL WEATHER
DISTURBANCE IS FORECAST TO WRAP AROUND THE BACK SIDE OF THE LOW
AND ACROSS NORTHERN ARIZONA...BRINGING ANOTHER ROUND OF PRIMARILY
DAYTIME SHOWERS.
&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 18Z PACKAGE...EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS AND
GENERALLY LIGHT WINDS FOR THIS FORECAST PERIOD. AVIATION
DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR TAF AMENDMENTS.
&&

.FIRE WEATHER...EXPECT DRY AND WARMING CONDITIONS TODAY AND
WEDNESDAY. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE TODAY...BEFORE
INCREASING SOUTHWEST WINDS DEVELOP ON WEDNESDAY.

THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...DRY AND WARM CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE
ON THURSDAY...WITH STRONG SOUTHWEST WINDS THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY.
LOW PRESSURE ARRIVES FRIDAY...BRINGING MUCH COLDER TEMPERATURES
AND AREAS OF RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS INTO THE WEEKEND.
&&

.FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&

$$

PUBLIC...TC/MAS
AVIATION...KD
FIRE WEATHER...PETERSON


FOR NORTHERN ARIZONA WEATHER INFORMATION VISIT
WEATHER.GOV/FLAGSTAFF




000
FXUS65 KFGZ 031646
AFDFGZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ
946 AM MST TUE MAY 3 2016

.SYNOPSIS...ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE IN
APACHE COUNTY THIS AFTERNOON. OTHERWISE...HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE
OVER ARIZONA FROM THE WEST WITH DRYING CONDITIONS AND WARMER
TEMPERATURES TODAY AND WEDNESDAY. A FAIRLY LARGE AND STRONG
WEATHER SYSTEM WILL BRING WINDY SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS THURSDAY
AND FRIDAY...WITH COOL AND UNSETTLED CONDITIONS FROM FRIDAY INTO
THE WEEKEND.
&&

.DISCUSSION...SOME MINOR UPDATES WERE MADE TO CLOUD COVER BY
REDUCING THE CLOUD COVER VALUES FOR THIS MORNING...ALSO CHANCES OF
PRECIPITATION HAVE BEEN REDUCE THROUGH NOON AND CHANCES OF
PRECIPITATION FOR THIS AFTERNOON. OTHERWISE HIGH PRESSURE IS
FORECAST TO BUILD INTO THE REGION WITH WARMER AND DRYING
CONDITIONS TODAY AND WEDNESDAY.
&&

.PREV DISCUSSION /416 AM MST/...A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE DIVING
SOUTH ACROSS THE GREAT PLAINS WILL INTERACT WITH RESIDUAL MOISTURE
OVER APACHE COUNTY TODAY WITH A FEW SHOWERS AND/OR THUNDERSTORMS
POSSIBLE. OTHERWISE... HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO ARIZONA FROM
THE WEST TODAY AND WEDNESDAY WITH DRYING CONDITIONS AND WARMER
DAYTIME TEMPERATURES.

A FAIRLY DEEP LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE
CALIFORNIA COAST LATE WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY AS THIS SYSTEM
APPROACHES NORTHERN ARIZONA...EXPECT SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS
WINDS TO DEVELOP THURSDAY AFTERNOON WITH SUSTAIN WINDS FROM 15 TO
30 MPH AND GUSTS FROM 25 TO 45 MPH. THE STRONGEST WINDS ON
THURSDAY ARE EXPECTED TO BE OVER PORTIONS OF WESTERN COCONINO AND
NORTHWESTERN YAVAPAI COUNTIES. ON FRIDAY...THE STRONGER WINDS WILL
SHIFT EAST INTO PORTIONS OF EASTERN COCONINO COUNTY, NAVAJO, AND
APACHE COUNTIES.

ON FRIDAY...EXPECT INCREASING CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS ALONG AND BEHIND THE COLD FRONT. THERE IS AMPLE
MOISTURE...INSTABILITY...OROGRAPHIC AND SYNOPTIC SCALE LIFT TO
SUPPORT AS LEAST SCATTERED SHOWERS.

SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...THE CLOSED LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL REMAIN
OVER PARTS OF NORTHERN ARIZONA AND COLORADO WITH MULTIPLE
DISTURBANCES ROTATING AROUND THE CLOSED LOW. THERE WILL BE
CONTINUED CHANCES OF SHOWERS EACH DAY WITH THE BEST CHANCES FOR
SHOWERS FROM LATE MORNING INTO EARLY EVENING...ASSOCIATED WITH THE
DAYTIME HEATING AND THE BEST INSTABILITY. ISOLATED AFTERNOON
THUNDERSTORMS ARE A POSSIBILITY ON BOTH DAYS.

MONDAY...FORECAST MODELS INDICATE THE LAST AND FINAL WEATHER
DISTURBANCE IS FORECAST TO WRAP AROUND THE BACK SIDE OF THE LOW
AND ACROSS NORTHERN ARIZONA...BRINGING ANOTHER ROUND OF PRIMARILY
DAYTIME SHOWERS.
&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 18Z PACKAGE...EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS AND
GENERALLY LIGHT WINDS FOR THIS FORECAST PERIOD. AVIATION
DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR TAF AMENDMENTS.
&&

.FIRE WEATHER...EXPECT DRY AND WARMING CONDITIONS TODAY AND
WEDNESDAY. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE TODAY...BEFORE
INCREASING SOUTHWEST WINDS DEVELOP ON WEDNESDAY.

THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...DRY AND WARM CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE
ON THURSDAY...WITH STRONG SOUTHWEST WINDS THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY.
LOW PRESSURE ARRIVES FRIDAY...BRINGING MUCH COLDER TEMPERATURES
AND AREAS OF RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS INTO THE WEEKEND.
&&

.FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&

$$

PUBLIC...TC/MAS
AVIATION...KD
FIRE WEATHER...PETERSON


FOR NORTHERN ARIZONA WEATHER INFORMATION VISIT
WEATHER.GOV/FLAGSTAFF




000
FXUS65 KTWC 031614
AFDTWC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ
914 AM MST TUE MAY 3 2016

.SYNOPSIS...HIGH PRESSURE WILL PROVIDE DRY CONDITIONS WITH A STRONG
WARMING TREND THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK.  ANOTHER STORM SYSTEM
WILL BRING WINDY CONDITIONS THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...ALONG WITH COOLER
TEMPERATURES AND A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS THIS WEEKEND.

&&

.DISCUSSION...WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS AMPLIFIED HIGH PRESSURE TO
OUR NORTH WITH THE TAIL END OF A SYSTEM CURRENTLY SKIRTING BY ACROSS
THE FOUR CORNERS REGION AND SLIDING SOUTH. MEANWHILE...A PACIFIC
SYSTEM IS OFF THE WEST COAST AND WILL BE THE SYSTEM THAT EVENTUALLY
GIVES US INCREASING WINDS THURSDAY AND A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS
FRIDAY THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.

IR AND VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES ACROSS
ARIZONA AT THIS TIME.

AS OF 16Z (9 AM MST)...TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE REGION RANGED FROM
THE MID 60S TO THE MID 70S...WITH THE TUCSON INTL AIRPORT REPORTING
A TEMP OF 73 DEGS...AFTER A MORNING LOW OF 56 DEGS. THESE CURRENT
READINGS SEEM TO BE ON TRACK WITH THE INHERITED AFTERNOON HIGH
TEMPS...SO NO CHANGES ARE PLANNED AT THIS TIME...BUT WILL CONTINUE
TO MONITOR.

FOR DETAILS BEYOND TODAY...PLEASE REFER TO THE PREVIOUS DISCUSSION
BELOW.

&&

.AVIATION...VALID THRU 04/18Z.
MOSTLY CLEAR WITH A FEW CU 8-12K FT AGL IN THE AFTERNOON. NORMAL
DIURNAL WIND TRENDS WITH SOME GUSTINESS IN THE AFTERNOON. AVIATION
DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR TAF AMENDMENTS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...DRY CONDITIONS WITH A STRONG WARMING TREND THROUGH
WEDNESDAY. WINDS WILL START TO INCREASE A BIT ON WEDNESDAY...
ESPECIALLY WEST OF TUCSON BUT WILL REMAIN BELOW CRITICAL THRESHOLDS.

STRONG AND GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS RETURN THURSDAY AND FRIDAY AS
ANOTHER STORM SYSTEM IMPACTS THE REGION. THE STRONGEST WINDS ON
THURSDAY WILL MAINLY BE FROM THE TUCSON METRO AREA WESTWARD...WITH
THE CORE OF THE STRONG WINDS SHIFTING EASTWARD FROM TUCSON INTO
COCHISE COUNTY AND AREAS ADJACENT TO THE NEW MEXICO BORDER ON
FRIDAY. A FIRE WEATHER WATCH CONTINUES FOR THURSDAY COVERING FIRE
WEATHER ZONES 150 AND 151 AS MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES WILL
EASILY EXCEED CRITICAL THRESHOLDS WITH WINDS LIKELY STRONG ENOUGH AS
WELL.

THE FUELS ARE A BIT MORE MARGINAL WITH GRASSES THE BIGGEST CONCERN.
THE THREAT FOR CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS CONTINUES FRIDAY FOR
EASTERN AREAS. AS COOLER TEMPERATURES AND INCREASED MOISTURE MOVE IN
FRIDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS FOR
MOST LOCATIONS WITH BREEZES PERSISTING THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...A RATHER HIGH AMPLITUDE RIDGE OVERHEAD IN
AN ENERGETIC PATTERN WILL CONTINUE THE STRONG WARMING TREND TODAY.
IT WILL PEAK ON WEDNESDAY AROUND 10 DEGREES ABOVE AVERAGE FOR EARLY
MAY. THIS WILL PUT ALL VALLEY LOCATIONS ABOVE 90...WITH MIDDLE TO
UPPER 90S FROM NEAR TUCSON WESTWARD. THE CHANCE OF THE FIRST 100
AT TIA WEDNESDAY IS VERY LOW, BUT NOT ZERO.

A NICE SPLIT OFF THE EASTERN PACIFIC WILL ALLOW A SYSTEM TO DIG INTO
THE SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA COAST THURSDAY...TRACKING INTO ARIZONA
FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY. AHEAD OF THIS...EXPECT INCREASING WINDS
THURSDAY WITH THE STRONGEST WINDS FOR MOST OF OUR AREA FRIDAY. BOTH
FIRE WEATHER AND POSSIBLE BLOWING DUST CONCERNS THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.

WE MAY HAVE A LITTLE MORE MOISTURE TO WORK WITH THAN CURRENTLY
ADVERTISED BY MODEL AND MODEL ENSEMBLES...ESPECIALLY LATE FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY. EVEN SO IT PROBABLY WON`T BE A SIGNIFICANT PRECIP EVENT.
WATCH FOR CONVECTION SATURDAY AFTERNOON WITH POSSIBLE ORGANIZED
CONVECTIVE OUTFLOWS.

DAYTIME TEMPERATURES IN THE 90S THE NEXT FEW DAYS WILL DROP BACK
INTO THE 70S OVER THE WEEKEND.

&&

.TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
    FIRE WEATHER WATCH LATE THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY
     EVENING FOR FIRE ZONES AZZ150-151

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...MOLLERE
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...MEYER/RASMUSSEN

VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...YOUTUBE...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/TUCSON




000
FXUS65 KTWC 031614
AFDTWC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ
914 AM MST TUE MAY 3 2016

.SYNOPSIS...HIGH PRESSURE WILL PROVIDE DRY CONDITIONS WITH A STRONG
WARMING TREND THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK.  ANOTHER STORM SYSTEM
WILL BRING WINDY CONDITIONS THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...ALONG WITH COOLER
TEMPERATURES AND A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS THIS WEEKEND.

&&

.DISCUSSION...WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS AMPLIFIED HIGH PRESSURE TO
OUR NORTH WITH THE TAIL END OF A SYSTEM CURRENTLY SKIRTING BY ACROSS
THE FOUR CORNERS REGION AND SLIDING SOUTH. MEANWHILE...A PACIFIC
SYSTEM IS OFF THE WEST COAST AND WILL BE THE SYSTEM THAT EVENTUALLY
GIVES US INCREASING WINDS THURSDAY AND A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS
FRIDAY THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.

IR AND VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES ACROSS
ARIZONA AT THIS TIME.

AS OF 16Z (9 AM MST)...TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE REGION RANGED FROM
THE MID 60S TO THE MID 70S...WITH THE TUCSON INTL AIRPORT REPORTING
A TEMP OF 73 DEGS...AFTER A MORNING LOW OF 56 DEGS. THESE CURRENT
READINGS SEEM TO BE ON TRACK WITH THE INHERITED AFTERNOON HIGH
TEMPS...SO NO CHANGES ARE PLANNED AT THIS TIME...BUT WILL CONTINUE
TO MONITOR.

FOR DETAILS BEYOND TODAY...PLEASE REFER TO THE PREVIOUS DISCUSSION
BELOW.

&&

.AVIATION...VALID THRU 04/18Z.
MOSTLY CLEAR WITH A FEW CU 8-12K FT AGL IN THE AFTERNOON. NORMAL
DIURNAL WIND TRENDS WITH SOME GUSTINESS IN THE AFTERNOON. AVIATION
DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR TAF AMENDMENTS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...DRY CONDITIONS WITH A STRONG WARMING TREND THROUGH
WEDNESDAY. WINDS WILL START TO INCREASE A BIT ON WEDNESDAY...
ESPECIALLY WEST OF TUCSON BUT WILL REMAIN BELOW CRITICAL THRESHOLDS.

STRONG AND GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS RETURN THURSDAY AND FRIDAY AS
ANOTHER STORM SYSTEM IMPACTS THE REGION. THE STRONGEST WINDS ON
THURSDAY WILL MAINLY BE FROM THE TUCSON METRO AREA WESTWARD...WITH
THE CORE OF THE STRONG WINDS SHIFTING EASTWARD FROM TUCSON INTO
COCHISE COUNTY AND AREAS ADJACENT TO THE NEW MEXICO BORDER ON
FRIDAY. A FIRE WEATHER WATCH CONTINUES FOR THURSDAY COVERING FIRE
WEATHER ZONES 150 AND 151 AS MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES WILL
EASILY EXCEED CRITICAL THRESHOLDS WITH WINDS LIKELY STRONG ENOUGH AS
WELL.

THE FUELS ARE A BIT MORE MARGINAL WITH GRASSES THE BIGGEST CONCERN.
THE THREAT FOR CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS CONTINUES FRIDAY FOR
EASTERN AREAS. AS COOLER TEMPERATURES AND INCREASED MOISTURE MOVE IN
FRIDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS FOR
MOST LOCATIONS WITH BREEZES PERSISTING THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...A RATHER HIGH AMPLITUDE RIDGE OVERHEAD IN
AN ENERGETIC PATTERN WILL CONTINUE THE STRONG WARMING TREND TODAY.
IT WILL PEAK ON WEDNESDAY AROUND 10 DEGREES ABOVE AVERAGE FOR EARLY
MAY. THIS WILL PUT ALL VALLEY LOCATIONS ABOVE 90...WITH MIDDLE TO
UPPER 90S FROM NEAR TUCSON WESTWARD. THE CHANCE OF THE FIRST 100
AT TIA WEDNESDAY IS VERY LOW, BUT NOT ZERO.

A NICE SPLIT OFF THE EASTERN PACIFIC WILL ALLOW A SYSTEM TO DIG INTO
THE SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA COAST THURSDAY...TRACKING INTO ARIZONA
FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY. AHEAD OF THIS...EXPECT INCREASING WINDS
THURSDAY WITH THE STRONGEST WINDS FOR MOST OF OUR AREA FRIDAY. BOTH
FIRE WEATHER AND POSSIBLE BLOWING DUST CONCERNS THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.

WE MAY HAVE A LITTLE MORE MOISTURE TO WORK WITH THAN CURRENTLY
ADVERTISED BY MODEL AND MODEL ENSEMBLES...ESPECIALLY LATE FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY. EVEN SO IT PROBABLY WON`T BE A SIGNIFICANT PRECIP EVENT.
WATCH FOR CONVECTION SATURDAY AFTERNOON WITH POSSIBLE ORGANIZED
CONVECTIVE OUTFLOWS.

DAYTIME TEMPERATURES IN THE 90S THE NEXT FEW DAYS WILL DROP BACK
INTO THE 70S OVER THE WEEKEND.

&&

.TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
    FIRE WEATHER WATCH LATE THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY
     EVENING FOR FIRE ZONES AZZ150-151

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...MOLLERE
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...MEYER/RASMUSSEN

VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...YOUTUBE...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/TUCSON




000
FXUS65 KFGZ 031120
AFDFGZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ
416 AM MST TUE MAY 3 2016

.SYNOPSIS...A FEW LINGERING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE
IN APACHE COUNTY TODAY. OTHERWISE...HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE OVER
ARIZONA FROM THE WEST WITH DRYING CONDITIONS AND WARMER TEMPERATURES
TODAY AND WEDNESDAY. A STRONGER WEATHER SYSTEM WILL BRING WINDY
SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS ALONG WITH COOL AND UNSETTLED CONDITIONS
FROM THURSDAY INTO THE WEEKEND.

&&

.DISCUSSION...A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE DIVING SOUTH ACROSS THE
GREAT PLAINS WILL INTERACT WITH RESIDUAL MOISTURE OVER APACHE COUNTY
TODAY WITH A FEW SHOWERS AND/OR THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE. OTHERWISE...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO ARIZONA FROM THE WEST TODAY AND
WEDNESDAY WITH DRYING CONDITIONS AND WARMER DAYTIME TEMPERATURES.

A FAIRLY DEEP LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE CALIFORNIA
COAST LATE WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY AS THIS SYSTEM APPROACHES
NORTHERN ARIZONA...EXPECT SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS WINDS TO DEVELOP
THURSDAY AFTERNOON WITH SUSTAIN WINDS FROM 15 TO 30 MPH AND GUSTS
FROM 25 TO 45 MPH. THE STRONGEST WINDS ON THURSDAY ARE EXPECTED TO
BE OVER PORTIONS OF WESTERN COCONINO AND NORTHWESTERN YAVAPAI
COUNTIES. ON FRIDAY...THE STRONGER WINDS WILL SHIFT EAST INTO
PORTIONS OF EASTERN COCONINO COUNTY, NAVAJO, AND APACHE COUNTIES
ALONG.

ON FRIDAY...EXPECT INCREASING CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS ALONG AND BEHIND THE COLD FRONT. THERE IS AMPLE
MOISTURE...INSTABILITY...OROGRAPHIC AND SYNOPTIC SCALE LIFT TO
SUPPORT AS LEAST SCATTERED SHOWERS.

SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...THE CLOSED LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL REMAIN
OVER PARTS OF NORTHERN ARIZONA AND COLORADO WITH MULTIPLE
DISTURBANCES ROTATING AROUND THE CLOSED LOW. THERE WILL BE CONTINUED
CHANCES OF SHOWERS EACH DAY WITH THE BEST CHANCES FOR SHOWERS FROM
LATE MORNING INTO EARLY EVENING...ASSOCIATED WITH THE DAYTIME
HEATING AND THE BEST INSTABILITY. ISOLATED AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS
ARE A POSSIBILITY ON BOTH DAYS.

MONDAY...FORECAST MODELS INDICATE THE LAST AND FINAL WEATHER
DISTURBANCE IS FORECAST TO WRAP AROUND THE BACK SIDE OF THE LOW
AND ACROSS NORTHERN ARIZONA...BRINGING ANOTHER ROUND OF PRIMARILY
DAYTIME SHOWERS.

&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 12Z PACKAGE...EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS AND LIGHT
WINDS FOR THIS FORECAST PERIOD. ISOLD TO SCT SC OVER HIGHER WITH
BASES FROM 4-6KFT AGL FROM 18Z-02Z. AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED
FOR TAF AMENDMENTS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...EXPECT DRY AND WARMING CONDITIONS TODAY AND
WEDNESDAY. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE TODAY...BEFORE
INCREASING SOUTHWEST WINDS DEVELOP ON WEDNESDAY.

THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...DRY AND WARM CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE ON
THURSDAY...WITH STRONG SOUTHWEST WINDS THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY. LOW
PRESSURE ARRIVES FRIDAY...BRINGING MUCH COLDER TEMPERATURES AND
AREAS OF RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS INTO THE WEEKEND.

&&

.FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC...MAS
AVIATION...BEP
FIRE WEATHER...BEP


FOR NORTHERN ARIZONA WEATHER INFORMATION VISIT
WEATHER.GOV/FLAGSTAFF




000
FXUS65 KPSR 031039
AFDPSR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PHOENIX AZ
340 AM MST TUE MAY 3 2016

.UPDATE...AVIATION AND FIRE WEATHER DISCUSSIONS.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
TEMPERATURES WILL QUICKLY WARM TUESDAY AND PEAK WEDNESDAY UNDER HIGH
PRESSURE. SOME LOWER DESERTS WILL APPROACH TRIPLE DIGITS. THE HEAT
WILL NOT LAST LONG AS ANOTHER STORM SYSTEM ROLLS IN FROM THE
PACIFIC. WINDS WILL INCREASE WEDNESDAY AND BE STRONGEST THURSDAY
LEADING TO AREAS OF BLOWING DUST. FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND WILL
FEATURE BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES...VARIOUS CLOUD COVER...AND MODEST
CHANCES FOR RAIN.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
OVERNIGHT WATER VAPOR LOOPS OVER THE N.A. CONTINENT THIS MORNING
HERALD A HIGHLY AMPLIFIED WAVE PATTERN AND RIDGING BUILDING OVER THE
SOUTHWEST STATES. HIGH PRESSURE ANCHORED OVER THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST
EXTENDS WELL NORTH INTO CANADIAN NORTHWEST TERRITORIES AND IS PINCHED
BETWEEN TWO DEEP TROUGHS OVER THE NORTHEAST PACIFIC AND THE
CENTRAL/EASTERN CONUS. COMPACT AND TRAILING UPPER SHORTWAVE THAT
BROUGHT SCATTERED PRECIP ACTIVITY TO THE NORTHERN AZ MOUNTAIN
YESTERDAY CONTINUES TO WEAKEN IN TERMS OF 500MB HEIGHTS BUT MAINTAINS
A SUBTLE CIRCULATION AS IT SLOWLY ROTATES EASTWARD. RIDGE HEIGHTS
OVER SOUTHERN CA ARE PUSHING EASTWARD AND WILL BEGIN TO SETTLE OVER
THE SOUTHWEST STATES TODAY AND WEDNESDAY...INTRODUCING A SHARP
WARMING TREND TO DAYTIME TEMPERATURES.

CONSENSUS AND NAM/GFS MOS HAVE BEGUN TO ADVERTISE 100F FOR PHOENIX
ON WEDNESDAY. UNDERSTANDING EVEN THE WARM BIASED BC GUIDANCE HAS THE
INFLUENCE OF THE LAST FEW DAYS OF BELOW AVERAGE TEMPERATURES...FELT
COMFORTABLE ENOUGH NUDGING UP FORECAST VALUES TO 100F FOR PHOENIX.
CLIMATOLOGICAL FIRST OBSERVANCE OVER THE LAST NORMAL PERIOD /98-10/
FALLS ON MAY 2ND...SO WE ARE CLOSE. YUMA STILL HAS TO HIT THEIR FIRST
100F OF 2016 ALSO...WITH APRIL 22ND THEIR AVERAGE FIRST OBSERVANCE
OVER THE LAST NORMAL PERIOD. YUMA COULD GET CLOSE ON WEDNESDAY
HOWEVER...500MB HEIGHTS BEGIN TO FALL ACROSS THE WESTERN FORECAST
AREA ZONES BY WEDNESDAY /SOUTH OF 580DM/ RELEGATING THEIR CHANCES
DEPENDENT TO THE WAA AND STRONG SOUTHERLY FLOW THAT BEGINS DURING
THE DAY.

WHILE THE WARMTH WILL BE THE MAIN HEADLINE WEDNESDAY...SOUTHERLY
WINDS WILL BECOME NOTICEABLE STRONGER AS THE AFOREMENTIONED PACIFIC
TROUGH BEGINS TO MOVE INTO THE WEST COAST. WINDS WILL BECOME STRONGER
FOR THURSDAY AS 55-PLUS KT 500MB AND 80-PLUS KT 300MB JET NOSES INTO
THE AREA AHEAD OF THE MAIN LOW CIRCULATION. DUST AND ASSOCIATED VSBY
RESTRICTIONS ARE PRESENT FOR WEDNESDAY WITH A MORE LOCAL FOCUS...BUT
BECOME A REGIONAL CONCERN ACROSS THE MAJORITY OF THE LOWER DESERT
ELEVATIONS THURSDAY. FORECAST SFC WINDS CONTINUE TO SIT WITHIN GEFS
UPPER PERCENTILE FORECASTS AND NEAR WIND ADVISORY THRESHOLDS.
COMBINATION OF STRONG WINDS AND LOW HUMIDITIES LEND THEMSELVES TO
FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS AS WELL THURSDAY AND AS SUCH A FIRE WEATHER
WATCH HAS BEEN POSTED FOR THE CENTRAL AZ ZONES/DISTRICTS JUST EAST OF
THE CO RIVER VALLEY. BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON THE UPPER LOW CENTER IN
PLOTTED NORTH OF THE L.A. BASIN...JUST OFF-SHORE.

MOISTURE PARAMETERS...PWAT OUTPUTS FROM GFS/GEFS AND MIXING RATIOS
FROM ECMWF...ARE BEGINNING TO FOCUS ON THE FIRST WAVE OF ACTIONABLE
MOISTURE IN COMBINATION WITH A VORT MAX/FROPA FOR
FRIDAY...PARTICULARLY IN THE AFTERNOON HOURS. STRONG UPSTREAM
HEIGHTS AND LL JET WINDS DOWN THE CA COAST SHOULD BE ABLE TO
TRANSPORT MARINE MOISTURE INLAND FOR FRIDAY WITH PWATS HEADING NORTH
TOWARD 0.75 INCH VALUES. FURTHER IMPROVEMENT OF GEFS REFORECAST POPS
AND FINER TIMING DETAILS LEAD ME TO NUDGE FCST POPS FOR FRIDAY INTO
THE CHANCE CATEGORY ACROSS SOUTH-CENTRAL AZ AND ALSO INCLUDE MENTION
OF THUNDER. TIMING OF COLDEST TEMPERATURES ALOFT AND LIS ARE NOT
PERFECTLY ALIGNED WITH PEAK HEATING...BUT GIVEN VERTICAL MOTION
ASSOCIATED WITH THE HEIGHT FALLS TRANSITIONING INTO THE AREA FELT
THUNDER MENTION WAS WARRANTED. SIGNIFICANT COOLING TREND IS STILL ON
TAP...WITH HIGHS DIPPING BACK INTO THE 70S/LOW 80S FOR MOST DESERT
LOCALES AND UPPER 60S/LOW 70S FOR THE NEARBY FOOTHILLS AND HIGHER
TERRAIN FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.

HEADING INTO THE WEEKEND THE FORECAST REMAINS BROADLY COVERED BY
SLIGHT CHANCE POPS...COOLER TEMPERATURES AND PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY
SKIES. THIS LATEST TROUGH CUTOFFS...SIMILAR TO SYSTEMS EARLIER THIS
SPRING...AND BEGINS TO SEND EMBEDDED SHORTWAVE/VORT LOBES THROUGH THE
REGION AT VARIOUS TIMES. LATEST DETERMINISTIC AND ENSEMBLE STORM
TRACK FORECASTS EVENTUALLY DRAW THE SYSTEM EASTWARD BY EARLY NEXT
WEEK WITH PACIFIC HIGH PRESSURE TRANSITIONING INTO THE WEST.

&&

.AVIATION...
SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA INCLUDING KPHX...KIWA...AND KSDL...AND...
SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA/SOUTHWEST ARIZONA INCLUDING KIPL AND KBLH...

A HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BUILD OVER THE REGION. STABLE CONDITIONS
WILL RESULT IN MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES WITH LIGHT WIND UNDER 6 KNOTS
THROUGH AT LEAST 23Z TUE.

AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDED TAFS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY...
...FIRE WEATHER WATCH THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING ACROSS
SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH CENTRAL ARIZONA...

THURSDAY...A PACIFIC COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA
THURSDAY AFTERNOON. AHEAD OF THE FRONT...STRONG GUSTY SOUTH TO
SOUTHWEST WINDS 25 TO 35 MPH WILL DEVELOP OVER A LARGE PART OF
SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH CENTRAL ARIZONA.. WITH MINIMUM RELATIVE
HUMIDITIES FALLING BELOW 15 PERCENT...A FIRE WEATHER WATCH HAS BEEN
POSTED.

FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...BEHIND THURSDAYS COLD FRONT...A LARGE COOL
PACIFIC LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BECOME NEARLY STATIONARY OVER THE
REGION. THIS WILL PROVIDE COOLER AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES...ALONG WITH
A RELATIVELY MOIST AIRMASS. MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITIES WILL RANGE
FROM 20 TO 25 PERCENT. AFTERNOON SOUTHWEST WINDS IN THE 15 TO 25 MPH
RANGE WILL DEVELOP FRIDAY...DECREASING INTO THE 10 TO 15 MPH RANGE
SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON. ADDITIONALLY...A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
AFTERNOON SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE MAINLY OVER THE MOUNTAINS NORTH
THROUGH EAST OF PHOENIX.

&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED.

&&

.PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AZ...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM THURSDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH THURSDAY
     EVENING FOR AZZ132-133.

CA...NONE.
&&

$$

VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/PHOENIX

DISCUSSION...NOLTE
AVIATION...VASQUEZ
FIRE WEATHER...VASQUEZ




000
FXUS65 KPSR 031028
AFDPSR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PHOENIX AZ
328 AM MST TUE MAY 3 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
TEMPERATURES WILL QUICKLY WARM TUESDAY AND PEAK WEDNESDAY UNDER HIGH
PRESSURE. SOME LOWER DESERTS WILL APPROACH TRIPLE DIGITS. THE HEAT
WILL NOT LAST LONG AS ANOTHER STORM SYSTEM ROLLS IN FROM THE
PACIFIC. WINDS WILL INCREASE WEDNESDAY AND BE STRONGEST THURSDAY
LEADING TO AREAS OF BLOWING DUST. FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND WILL
FEATURE BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES...VARIOUS CLOUD COVER...AND MODEST
CHANCES FOR RAIN.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
OVERNIGHT WATER VAPOR LOOPS OVER THE N.A. CONTINENT THIS MORNING
HERALD A HIGHLY AMPLIFIED WAVE PATTERN AND RIDGING BUILDING OVER THE
SOUTHWEST STATES. HIGH PRESSURE ANCHORED OVER THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST
EXTENDS WELL NORTH INTO CANADIAN NORTHWEST TERRITORIES AND IS PINCHED
BETWEEN TWO DEEP TROUGHS OVER THE NORTHEAST PACIFIC AND THE
CENTRAL/EASTERN CONUS. COMPACT AND TRAILING UPPER SHORTWAVE THAT
BROUGHT SCATTERED PRECIP ACTIVITY TO THE NORTHERN AZ MOUNTAIN
YESTERDAY CONTINUES TO WEAKEN IN TERMS OF 500MB HEIGHTS BUT MAINTAINS
A SUBTLE CIRCULATION AS IT SLOWLY ROTATES EASTWARD. RIDGE HEIGHTS
OVER SOUTHERN CA ARE PUSHING EASTWARD AND WILL BEGIN TO SETTLE OVER
THE SOUTHWEST STATES TODAY AND WEDNESDAY...INTRODUCING A SHARP
WARMING TREND TO DAYTIME TEMPERATURES.

CONSENSUS AND NAM/GFS MOS HAVE BEGUN TO ADVERTISE 100F FOR PHOENIX
ON WEDNESDAY. UNDERSTANDING EVEN THE WARM BIASED BC GUIDANCE HAS THE
INFLUENCE OF THE LAST FEW DAYS OF BELOW AVERAGE TEMPERATURES...FELT
COMFORTABLE ENOUGH NUDGING UP FORECAST VALUES TO 100F FOR PHOENIX.
CLIMATOLOGICAL FIRST OBSERVANCE OVER THE LAST NORMAL PERIOD /98-10/
FALLS ON MAY 2ND...SO WE ARE CLOSE. YUMA STILL HAS TO HIT THEIR FIRST
100F OF 2016 ALSO...WITH APRIL 22ND THEIR AVERAGE FIRST OBSERVANCE
OVER THE LAST NORMAL PERIOD. YUMA COULD GET CLOSE ON WEDNESDAY
HOWEVER...500MB HEIGHTS BEGIN TO FALL ACROSS THE WESTERN FORECAST
AREA ZONES BY WEDNESDAY /SOUTH OF 580DM/ RELEGATING THEIR CHANCES
DEPENDENT TO THE WAA AND STRONG SOUTHERLY FLOW THAT BEGINS DURING
THE DAY.

WHILE THE WARMTH WILL BE THE MAIN HEADLINE WEDNESDAY...SOUTHERLY
WINDS WILL BECOME NOTICEABLE STRONGER AS THE AFOREMENTIONED PACIFIC
TROUGH BEGINS TO MOVE INTO THE WEST COAST. WINDS WILL BECOME STRONGER
FOR THURSDAY AS 55-PLUS KT 500MB AND 80-PLUS KT 300MB JET NOSES INTO
THE AREA AHEAD OF THE MAIN LOW CIRCULATION. DUST AND ASSOCIATED VSBY
RESTRICTIONS ARE PRESENT FOR WEDNESDAY WITH A MORE LOCAL FOCUS...BUT
BECOME A REGIONAL CONCERN ACROSS THE MAJORITY OF THE LOWER DESERT
ELEVATIONS THURSDAY. FORECAST SFC WINDS CONTINUE TO SIT WITHIN GEFS
UPPER PERCENTILE FORECASTS AND NEAR WIND ADVISORY THRESHOLDS.
COMBINATION OF STRONG WINDS AND LOW HUMIDITIES LEND THEMSELVES TO
FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS AS WELL THURSDAY AND AS SUCH A FIRE WEATHER
WATCH HAS BEEN POSTED FOR THE CENTRAL AZ ZONES/DISTRICTS JUST EAST OF
THE CO RIVER VALLEY. BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON THE UPPER LOW CENTER IN
PLOTTED NORTH OF THE L.A. BASIN...JUST OFF-SHORE.

MOISTURE PARAMETERS...PWAT OUTPUTS FROM GFS/GEFS AND MIXING RATIOS
FROM ECMWF...ARE BEGINNING TO FOCUS ON THE FIRST WAVE OF ACTIONABLE
MOISTURE IN COMBINATION WITH A VORT MAX/FROPA FOR
FRIDAY...PARTICULARLY IN THE AFTERNOON HOURS. STRONG UPSTREAM
HEIGHTS AND LL JET WINDS DOWN THE CA COAST SHOULD BE ABLE TO
TRANSPORT MARINE MOISTURE INLAND FOR FRIDAY WITH PWATS HEADING NORTH
TOWARD 0.75 INCH VALUES. FURTHER IMPROVEMENT OF GEFS REFORECAST POPS
AND FINER TIMING DETAILS LEAD ME TO NUDGE FCST POPS FOR FRIDAY INTO
THE CHANCE CATEGORY ACROSS SOUTH-CENTRAL AZ AND ALSO INCLUDE MENTION
OF THUNDER. TIMING OF COLDEST TEMPERATURES ALOFT AND LIS ARE NOT
PERFECTLY ALIGNED WITH PEAK HEATING...BUT GIVEN VERTICAL MOTION
ASSOCIATED WITH THE HEIGHT FALLS TRANSITIONING INTO THE AREA FELT
THUNDER MENTION WAS WARRANTED. SIGNIFICANT COOLING TREND IS STILL ON
TAP...WITH HIGHS DIPPING BACK INTO THE 70S/LOW 80S FOR MOST DESERT
LOCALES AND UPPER 60S/LOW 70S FOR THE NEARBY FOOTHILLS AND HIGHER
TERRAIN FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.

HEADING INTO THE WEEKEND THE FORECAST REMAINS BROADLY COVERED BY
SLIGHT CHANCE POPS...COOLER TEMPERATURES AND PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY
SKIES. THIS LATEST TROUGH CUTOFFS...SIMILAR TO SYSTEMS EARLIER THIS
SPRING...AND BEGINS TO SEND EMBEDDED SHORTWAVE/VORT LOBES THROUGH THE
REGION AT VARIOUS TIMES. LATEST DETERMINISTIC AND ENSEMBLE STORM
TRACK FORECASTS EVENTUALLY DRAW THE SYSTEM EASTWARD BY EARLY NEXT
WEEK WITH PACIFIC HIGH PRESSURE TRANSITIONING INTO THE WEST.

&&

.AVIATION...
SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA INCLUDING KPHX...KIWA...AND KSDL...AND...
SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA/SOUTHWEST ARIZONA INCLUDING KIPL AND KBLH...

AS HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT SLOWLY BUILDS INTO THE AREA FROM THE WEST
TONIGHT...WE SHOULD SEE LIGHT AND MOSTLY DIURNAL WINDS UNDER
GENERALLY CLEAR SKIES. WE MAY SEE A FEW HIGH BASED CUMULUS FORM
AGAIN IN THE AFTERNOON ON TUESDAY BUT NOTHING OF CONSEQUENCE FOR
AVIATION. AGAIN...WINDS WILL BE LIGHT VARIABLE OR LIGHT DIURNAL NEXT
24 HOURS...ESPECIALLY OVER THE CENTRAL DESERTS AND IN THE GREATER
PHOENIX AREA. MOST WINDS WILL BE AOA 10KT AT THE TAF SITES THROUGH
TUESDAY AFTERNOON AT LEAST. NO AVIATION IMPACTS EXPECTED AT ANY
TERMINAL FOR AT LEAST THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDED TAFS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...
WINDS WILL INCREASE WEDNESDAY AND ONCE AGAIN THURSDAY AS A STORM
SYSTEM MOVES INTO THE SOUTHWEST. THERE WILL LIKELY BE A SEVERAL HOUR
WINDOW THURSDAY AFTERNOON WHERE WINDS AND HUMIDITY VALUES HIT
CRITICAL THRESHOLDS ACROSS PORTIONS OF MARICOPA...PINAL...AND GILA
COUNTIES. QUESTIONS REMAIN ON FUEL LEVELS DUE TO RECENT RAINS AND
CURRENT GREEN LEVELS. MUCH COOLER TEMPERATURES...LESS WIND...AND
HIGHER HUMIDITY LEVELS ARE EXPECTED FRIDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND ALONG
WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF WETTING RAINS.

&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED.

&&

.PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AZ...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM THURSDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH THURSDAY
     EVENING FOR AZZ132-133.

CA...NONE.
&&

$$

VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/PHOENIX

DISCUSSION...NOLTE
AVIATION...CB
FIRE WEATHER...INIGUEZ




000
FXUS65 KTWC 031004
AFDTWC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ
250 AM MST TUE MAY 3 2016

.SYNOPSIS...HIGH PRESSURE WILL PROVIDE DRY CONDITIONS WITH A STRONG
WARMING TREND THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK.  ANOTHER STORM SYSTEM
WILL BRING WINDY CONDITIONS THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...ALONG WITH COOLER
TEMPERATURES AND A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS THIS WEEKEND.

&&

.DISCUSSION...A RATHER HIGH AMPLITUDE RIDGE OVERHEAD IN AN ENERGETIC
PATTERN WILL CONTINUE THE STRONG WARMING TREND TODAY. IT WILL PEAK
ON WEDNESDAY AROUND 10 DEGREES ABOVE AVERAGE FOR EARLY MAY. THIS
WILL PUT ALL VALLEY LOCATIONS ABOVE 90...WITH MIDDLE TO UPPER 90S
FROM NEAR TUCSON WESTWARD. THE CHANCE OF THE FIRST 100 AT TIA
WEDNESDAY IS VERY LOW, BUT NOT ZERO.

A NICE SPLIT OFF THE EASTERN PACIFIC WILL ALLOW A SYSTEM TO DIG INTO
THE SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA COAST THURSDAY...TRACKING INTO ARIZONA
FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY. AHEAD OF THIS...EXPECT INCREASING WINDS
THURSDAY WITH THE STRONGEST FOR MOST OF OUR AREA FRIDAY. BOTH FIRE
WEATHER AND POSSIBLE BLOWING DUST CONCERNS THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.

WE MAY HAVE A LITTLE MORE MOISTURE TO WORK WITH THAN CURRENTLY
ADVERTISED BY MODEL AND MODEL ENSEMBLES...ESPECIALLY LATE FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY. EVEN SO IT PROBABLY WON`T BE A SIGNIFICANT PRECIP EVENT.
WATCH FOR CONVECTION SATURDAY AFTERNOON WITH POSSIBLE ORGANIZED
CONVECTIVE OUTFLOWS.

DAYTIME TEMPERATURES IN THE 90S THE NEXT FEW DAYS WILL DROP BACK
INTO THE 70S OVER THE WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION...VALID THRU 04/12Z.
MOSTLY CLEAR WITH A FEW CU 8-12K FT AGL IN THE AFTERNOON. NORMAL
DIURNAL WIND TRENDS WITH SOME GUSTINESS IN THE AFTERNOON. AVIATION
DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR TAF AMENDMENTS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...DRY CONDITIONS WITH A STRONG WARMING TREND THROUGH
WEDNESDAY. WINDS WILL START TO INCREASE A BIT ON
WEDNESDAY...ESPECIALLY WEST OF TUCSON BUT WILL REMAIN BELOW CRITICAL
THRESHOLDS.

STRONG AND GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS RETURN THURSDAY AND FRIDAY AS
ANOTHER STORM SYSTEM IMPACTS THE REGION. THE STRONGEST WINDS ON
THURSDAY WILL MAINLY BE FROM THE TUCSON METRO AREA WESTWARD...WITH
THE CORE OF THE STRONG WINDS SHIFTING EASTWARD FROM TUCSON INTO
COCHISE COUNTY AND AREAS ADJACENT TO THE NEW MEXICO BORDER ON
FRIDAY. A FIRE WEATHER WATCH CONTINUES FOR THURSDAY COVERING FIRE
WEATHER ZONES 150 AND 151 AS MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES WILL
EASILY EXCEED CRITICAL THRESHOLDS WITH WINDS LIKELY STRONG ENOUGH AS
WELL.

THE FUELS ARE A BIT MORE MARGINAL WITH GRASSES THE BIGGEST CONCERN.
THE THREAT FOR CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS CONTINUES FRIDAY FOR
EASTERN AREAS. AS COOLER TEMPERATURES AND INCREASED MOISTURE MOVE IN
FRIDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS FOR
MOST LOCATIONS WITH BREEZES PERSISTING THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
  FIRE WEATHER WATCH LATE THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING
   FOR FIRE ZONES AZZ150-151

$$

&&

MEYER/RASMUSSEN

VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...YOUTUBE...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/TUCSON




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