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000
FXUS65 KFGZ 302141
AFDFGZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ
245 PM MST TUE SEP 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...EXPECT COOLER NIGHTS WITH LITTLE PRECIPITATION FORECAST
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK. A WEAK TROUGH WILL BRUSH THROUGH
UTAH TOMORROW WITH HIGHER CLOUD COVER AND SLIGHT CHANCES FOR
LIGHT SHOWERS OVER THE UTAH ARIZONA BORDER REGION. THE PACIFIC RIDGE
WILL BUILD INTO ARIZONA ON FRIDAY WITH WARMER HIGH TEMPERATURES
FORECAST THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...DRY WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL KEEP US IN A TYPICAL FALL
WEATHER PATTERN THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. ONE EXCEPTION TO THIS
FORECAST WILL BE TOMORROW OVER MOUNTAIN AREAS ALONG THE UTAH BORDER.
A WEAK TROUGH PASSING THROUGH UTAH WILL INCREASE CLOUD COVER AND MAY
PRODUCE A BRIEF SHOWER IN THIS AREA DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS.

ON FRIDAY...THE PACIFIC RIDGE WILL BUILD INTO ARIZONA EXPECT A
WARMING OF OUR AFTERNOON HIGH TEMPERATURES AND DRIER HUMIDITY LEVELS
AS A RESULT THROUGH THE WEEKEND. OTHERWISE EXPECT GREAT WEATHER
CONDITIONS THIS WEEK FOR OUTDOOR ACTIVITIES WARM DAYS...COOL NIGHTS
AND LIGHT WINDS.

A MONSOON RAINFALL WRAP UP WILL BE POSTED ON OUR WEB PAGE IN THE
NEXT FEW DAYS. CHECK US OUT WEATHER.GOV/FLAGSTAFF

&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 00Z PACKAGE...EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS FOR THE NEXT
24 HOURS. AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDMENTS.

&&

.FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC.........BOHLIN
AVIATION.......BOHLIN

FOR NORTHERN ARIZONA WEATHER INFORMATION VISIT
WEATHER.GOV/FLAGSTAFF







000
FXUS65 KFGZ 302141
AFDFGZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ
245 PM MST TUE SEP 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...EXPECT COOLER NIGHTS WITH LITTLE PRECIPITATION FORECAST
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK. A WEAK TROUGH WILL BRUSH THROUGH
UTAH TOMORROW WITH HIGHER CLOUD COVER AND SLIGHT CHANCES FOR
LIGHT SHOWERS OVER THE UTAH ARIZONA BORDER REGION. THE PACIFIC RIDGE
WILL BUILD INTO ARIZONA ON FRIDAY WITH WARMER HIGH TEMPERATURES
FORECAST THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...DRY WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL KEEP US IN A TYPICAL FALL
WEATHER PATTERN THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. ONE EXCEPTION TO THIS
FORECAST WILL BE TOMORROW OVER MOUNTAIN AREAS ALONG THE UTAH BORDER.
A WEAK TROUGH PASSING THROUGH UTAH WILL INCREASE CLOUD COVER AND MAY
PRODUCE A BRIEF SHOWER IN THIS AREA DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS.

ON FRIDAY...THE PACIFIC RIDGE WILL BUILD INTO ARIZONA EXPECT A
WARMING OF OUR AFTERNOON HIGH TEMPERATURES AND DRIER HUMIDITY LEVELS
AS A RESULT THROUGH THE WEEKEND. OTHERWISE EXPECT GREAT WEATHER
CONDITIONS THIS WEEK FOR OUTDOOR ACTIVITIES WARM DAYS...COOL NIGHTS
AND LIGHT WINDS.

A MONSOON RAINFALL WRAP UP WILL BE POSTED ON OUR WEB PAGE IN THE
NEXT FEW DAYS. CHECK US OUT WEATHER.GOV/FLAGSTAFF

&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 00Z PACKAGE...EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS FOR THE NEXT
24 HOURS. AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDMENTS.

&&

.FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC.........BOHLIN
AVIATION.......BOHLIN

FOR NORTHERN ARIZONA WEATHER INFORMATION VISIT
WEATHER.GOV/FLAGSTAFF







000
FXUS65 KFGZ 302141
AFDFGZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ
245 PM MST TUE SEP 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...EXPECT COOLER NIGHTS WITH LITTLE PRECIPITATION FORECAST
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK. A WEAK TROUGH WILL BRUSH THROUGH
UTAH TOMORROW WITH HIGHER CLOUD COVER AND SLIGHT CHANCES FOR
LIGHT SHOWERS OVER THE UTAH ARIZONA BORDER REGION. THE PACIFIC RIDGE
WILL BUILD INTO ARIZONA ON FRIDAY WITH WARMER HIGH TEMPERATURES
FORECAST THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...DRY WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL KEEP US IN A TYPICAL FALL
WEATHER PATTERN THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. ONE EXCEPTION TO THIS
FORECAST WILL BE TOMORROW OVER MOUNTAIN AREAS ALONG THE UTAH BORDER.
A WEAK TROUGH PASSING THROUGH UTAH WILL INCREASE CLOUD COVER AND MAY
PRODUCE A BRIEF SHOWER IN THIS AREA DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS.

ON FRIDAY...THE PACIFIC RIDGE WILL BUILD INTO ARIZONA EXPECT A
WARMING OF OUR AFTERNOON HIGH TEMPERATURES AND DRIER HUMIDITY LEVELS
AS A RESULT THROUGH THE WEEKEND. OTHERWISE EXPECT GREAT WEATHER
CONDITIONS THIS WEEK FOR OUTDOOR ACTIVITIES WARM DAYS...COOL NIGHTS
AND LIGHT WINDS.

A MONSOON RAINFALL WRAP UP WILL BE POSTED ON OUR WEB PAGE IN THE
NEXT FEW DAYS. CHECK US OUT WEATHER.GOV/FLAGSTAFF

&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 00Z PACKAGE...EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS FOR THE NEXT
24 HOURS. AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDMENTS.

&&

.FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC.........BOHLIN
AVIATION.......BOHLIN

FOR NORTHERN ARIZONA WEATHER INFORMATION VISIT
WEATHER.GOV/FLAGSTAFF







000
FXUS65 KFGZ 302141
AFDFGZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ
245 PM MST TUE SEP 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...EXPECT COOLER NIGHTS WITH LITTLE PRECIPITATION FORECAST
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK. A WEAK TROUGH WILL BRUSH THROUGH
UTAH TOMORROW WITH HIGHER CLOUD COVER AND SLIGHT CHANCES FOR
LIGHT SHOWERS OVER THE UTAH ARIZONA BORDER REGION. THE PACIFIC RIDGE
WILL BUILD INTO ARIZONA ON FRIDAY WITH WARMER HIGH TEMPERATURES
FORECAST THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...DRY WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL KEEP US IN A TYPICAL FALL
WEATHER PATTERN THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. ONE EXCEPTION TO THIS
FORECAST WILL BE TOMORROW OVER MOUNTAIN AREAS ALONG THE UTAH BORDER.
A WEAK TROUGH PASSING THROUGH UTAH WILL INCREASE CLOUD COVER AND MAY
PRODUCE A BRIEF SHOWER IN THIS AREA DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS.

ON FRIDAY...THE PACIFIC RIDGE WILL BUILD INTO ARIZONA EXPECT A
WARMING OF OUR AFTERNOON HIGH TEMPERATURES AND DRIER HUMIDITY LEVELS
AS A RESULT THROUGH THE WEEKEND. OTHERWISE EXPECT GREAT WEATHER
CONDITIONS THIS WEEK FOR OUTDOOR ACTIVITIES WARM DAYS...COOL NIGHTS
AND LIGHT WINDS.

A MONSOON RAINFALL WRAP UP WILL BE POSTED ON OUR WEB PAGE IN THE
NEXT FEW DAYS. CHECK US OUT WEATHER.GOV/FLAGSTAFF

&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 00Z PACKAGE...EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS FOR THE NEXT
24 HOURS. AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDMENTS.

&&

.FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC.........BOHLIN
AVIATION.......BOHLIN

FOR NORTHERN ARIZONA WEATHER INFORMATION VISIT
WEATHER.GOV/FLAGSTAFF






  [top]

000
FXUS65 KTWC 302115
AFDTWC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ
215 PM MST TUE SEP 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...DRY CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL INTO THIS WEEKEND. A GRADUAL
WARMING TREND WILL OCCUR ESPECIALLY DURING THE LATTER PART OF THE
WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT BUILDS OVER THE AREA.

&&

.DISCUSSION...WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND 30/12Z UPPER-AIR PLOTS SHOW
NEARLY ZONAL FLOW ACROSS THE DESERT SOUTHWEST BEHIND THE EXITING
SYSTEM THAT IS CURRENTLY OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS STATES. ANOTHER
SYSTEM EXPECTED TO BRUSH THROUGH NORTHERN ARIZONA EARLY WEDNESDAY...
THEN SWING THROUGH THE EASTERN PART OF THE STATE LATE WEDNESDAY OR
EARLY THURSDAY...BUT NO PRECIPITATION WITH THAT SYSTEM.

STRONG RIDGING WILL BUILD IN BEHIND THIS WEAKER SYSTEM FOR AN
INCREASE IN HIGH TEMPERATURES...MAINLY FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...BEFORE
FALLING BACK A FEW DEGREES EARLY NEXT WEEK. A DRY FORECAST
ANTICIPATED THROUGH THE ENTIRE FORECAST PERIOD. HOWEVER...SOME
HIGHER MOISTURE IS INDICATED BY THE MODELS TO BE JUST TO OUR SOUTH
LATE THIS WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK.

HIGH TEMPERATURES EXPECTED TO BE NEAR NORMAL WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY...THEN 3 TO 5 DEGS ABOVE NORMAL THEREAFTER. LOWS AROUND 3
TO 5 DEGS BELOW NORMAL TONIGHT/EARLY WEDNESDAY...THEN NEAR NORMAL
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY MORNINGS...FOLLOWED BY 2 TO 4 DEGS ABOVE NORMAL
THROUGH TUESDAY.

&&

AVIATION...VALID THRU 02/00Z.
EXPECT CLEAR SKIES THROUGH WEDNESDAY. SURFACE WIND EAST OF KTUS THE
REMAINDER OF THIS AFTERNOON WILL BE WLY/NWLY 10-15 KTS WITH GUSTS TO
20-25 KTS. OTHERWISE...SURFACE WIND WILL BE MAINLY LESS THAN 10 KTS
TONIGHT THROUGH EARLY WEDNESDAY. SFC WINDS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AGAIN
RANGING FROM 10-15 KTS WITH OCCASIONAL GUSTS TO AROUND 20 KTS.
AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR TAF AMENDMENTS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...DRY CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.
DAYTIME MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITIES WILL LOWER THIS WEEK AS DRIER
AIR MOVES INTO THE REGION. HOWEVER...GOOD OVERNIGHT RH RECOVERIES
ARE EXPECTED. 20-FOOT WINDS ACROSS GRAHAM...GREENLEE AND COCHISE
COUNTIES THE REMAINDER OF THIS AFTERNOON WILL BE WEST TO NORTHWEST
AT 8-18 MPH. OTHERWISE...20-FOOT WINDS WILL BE LESS THAN 15 MPH
THROUGH THURSDAY. LOCALLY GUSTY EAST WINDS MAY OCCUR FRIDAY.

&&

.TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.


&&

$$

VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...YOUTUBE...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/TUCSON

MOLLERE






000
FXUS65 KTWC 302115
AFDTWC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ
215 PM MST TUE SEP 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...DRY CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL INTO THIS WEEKEND. A GRADUAL
WARMING TREND WILL OCCUR ESPECIALLY DURING THE LATTER PART OF THE
WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT BUILDS OVER THE AREA.

&&

.DISCUSSION...WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND 30/12Z UPPER-AIR PLOTS SHOW
NEARLY ZONAL FLOW ACROSS THE DESERT SOUTHWEST BEHIND THE EXITING
SYSTEM THAT IS CURRENTLY OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS STATES. ANOTHER
SYSTEM EXPECTED TO BRUSH THROUGH NORTHERN ARIZONA EARLY WEDNESDAY...
THEN SWING THROUGH THE EASTERN PART OF THE STATE LATE WEDNESDAY OR
EARLY THURSDAY...BUT NO PRECIPITATION WITH THAT SYSTEM.

STRONG RIDGING WILL BUILD IN BEHIND THIS WEAKER SYSTEM FOR AN
INCREASE IN HIGH TEMPERATURES...MAINLY FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...BEFORE
FALLING BACK A FEW DEGREES EARLY NEXT WEEK. A DRY FORECAST
ANTICIPATED THROUGH THE ENTIRE FORECAST PERIOD. HOWEVER...SOME
HIGHER MOISTURE IS INDICATED BY THE MODELS TO BE JUST TO OUR SOUTH
LATE THIS WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK.

HIGH TEMPERATURES EXPECTED TO BE NEAR NORMAL WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY...THEN 3 TO 5 DEGS ABOVE NORMAL THEREAFTER. LOWS AROUND 3
TO 5 DEGS BELOW NORMAL TONIGHT/EARLY WEDNESDAY...THEN NEAR NORMAL
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY MORNINGS...FOLLOWED BY 2 TO 4 DEGS ABOVE NORMAL
THROUGH TUESDAY.

&&

AVIATION...VALID THRU 02/00Z.
EXPECT CLEAR SKIES THROUGH WEDNESDAY. SURFACE WIND EAST OF KTUS THE
REMAINDER OF THIS AFTERNOON WILL BE WLY/NWLY 10-15 KTS WITH GUSTS TO
20-25 KTS. OTHERWISE...SURFACE WIND WILL BE MAINLY LESS THAN 10 KTS
TONIGHT THROUGH EARLY WEDNESDAY. SFC WINDS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AGAIN
RANGING FROM 10-15 KTS WITH OCCASIONAL GUSTS TO AROUND 20 KTS.
AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR TAF AMENDMENTS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...DRY CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.
DAYTIME MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITIES WILL LOWER THIS WEEK AS DRIER
AIR MOVES INTO THE REGION. HOWEVER...GOOD OVERNIGHT RH RECOVERIES
ARE EXPECTED. 20-FOOT WINDS ACROSS GRAHAM...GREENLEE AND COCHISE
COUNTIES THE REMAINDER OF THIS AFTERNOON WILL BE WEST TO NORTHWEST
AT 8-18 MPH. OTHERWISE...20-FOOT WINDS WILL BE LESS THAN 15 MPH
THROUGH THURSDAY. LOCALLY GUSTY EAST WINDS MAY OCCUR FRIDAY.

&&

.TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.


&&

$$

VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...YOUTUBE...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/TUCSON

MOLLERE






  [top]

000
FXUS65 KPSR 302104
AFDPSR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PHOENIX AZ
205 PM MST TUE SEP 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ANTICIPATE LITTLE CHANGE IN TEMPERATURES WEDNESDAY AS A WEATHER
SYSTEM PASSES FAR TO THE NORTH. A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING
INTO THE REGION WILL THEN LEAD TO A WARMING TREND THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY WITH TEMPERATURES CLIMBING AT LEAST A FEW DEGREES ABOVE
NORMAL. OFF AND ON BREEZINESS FROM THE NORTH AND NORTHEAST CAN ALSO
BE EXPECTED. THERE WILL BE LITTLE CHANGE IN TEMPERATURES OVER THE
WEEKEND ALONG WITH LIGHT WINDS. HIGH PRESSURE WEAKENS NEXT WEAK FOR
A VERY SLOW COOLING TREND.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
REST OF TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY...
RAOB TRENDS FROM THIS MORNING INDICATED LITTLE CHANGE IN LOWER LEVEL
TEMPERATURES OVER EASTERN PORTIONS OF ARIZONA WITH INCREASING
WARMING FURTHER WEST. SURFACE TEMPERATURE TRENDS FOR EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON REFLECT THIS PATTERN WITH LITTLE CHANGE IN OUR EASTERN
AREAS AND 5-10 DEG OF WARMING IN SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA...COMPARED TO
24 HOURS AGO. AN UPPER TROUGH MOVING THROUGH THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST
AND GREAT BASIN WILL BRUSH ARIZONA WEDNESDAY KEEPING TEMPERATURE
TRENDS PRETTY FLAT. A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE NORTHEAST
PACIFIC WILL THEN SLOWLY MOVE INLAND LEADING TO A WARMING TREND
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. THAT MEANS HIGHS IN THE UPPER 90S ON THE
SOUTH-CENTRAL AZ DESERTS AND AROUND 100 OR SLIGHTLY HIGHER OVER
SOUTHWEST AZ AND SOUTHEAST CA. AT THE SAME TIME...STRONG SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE BECOMES CENTERED OVER THE GREAT BASIN. WITH LOWER
PRESSURE OVER NORTHWEST MEXICO...THIS LEADS TO A NORTH AND NORTHEAST
ORIENTED PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS ARIZONA AND SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA.
IN TURN THERE WILL OFF AND ON BREEZINESS...MOST NOTICEABLY OVER THE
LOWER COLORADO RIVER VALLEY AND FOOTHILL LOCATIONS OF NORTHERN
MARICOPA COUNTY.

SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...
ANTICIPATE LITTLE CHANGE IN TEMPERATURES OVER THE WEEKEND. THE
SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT WEAKENS AND THE LIGHT DIURNAL WIND
PATTERNS WILL PREVAIL. THE RIDGE STARTS TO WEAKEN EARLY NEXT WEEK
AND SOME HIGH CLOUDS MOVE THROUGH AS WELL WHICH LEADS TO A VERY SLOW
COOLING TREND.

&&

.AVIATION...
SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA INCLUDING KPHX...KIWA...AND KSDL...AND
SOUTHWEST ARIZONA AND SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA INCLUDING KIPL AND KBLH...

CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH
WEDNESDAY.

AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDED TAFS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...
A FEW DEGREES OF ADDITIONAL WARMING CAN BE EXPECTED FRIDAY WITH
LITTLE CHANGE SATURDAY AND SUNDAY BEFORE A SUBTLE COOLING TREND
MONDAY AND TUESDAY. MINIMUM HUMIDITIES WILL BE QUITE LOW FRIDAY
THROUGH SUNDAY BEFORE TRENDING UP MONDAY AND TUESDAY.
SIMILARLY...OVERNIGHT RECOVERY WILL BE POOR OVER SOUTHEAST
CALIFORNIA AND ONLY FAIR ELSEWHERE THROUGH SUNDAY BEFORE TRENDING
UPWARD. NORTH AND NORTHEAST BREEZES CONTINUE FRIDAY BEFORE LIGHT AND
VARIABLE WIND PATTERNS TAKE HOLD OVER THE WEEKEND.

&&

.PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

AZ...NONE.

CA...NONE.

&&

$$

VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/PHOENIX

DISCUSSION...AJ
AVIATION...AJ
FIRE WEATHER...AJ









000
FXUS65 KPSR 302104
AFDPSR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PHOENIX AZ
205 PM MST TUE SEP 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ANTICIPATE LITTLE CHANGE IN TEMPERATURES WEDNESDAY AS A WEATHER
SYSTEM PASSES FAR TO THE NORTH. A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING
INTO THE REGION WILL THEN LEAD TO A WARMING TREND THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY WITH TEMPERATURES CLIMBING AT LEAST A FEW DEGREES ABOVE
NORMAL. OFF AND ON BREEZINESS FROM THE NORTH AND NORTHEAST CAN ALSO
BE EXPECTED. THERE WILL BE LITTLE CHANGE IN TEMPERATURES OVER THE
WEEKEND ALONG WITH LIGHT WINDS. HIGH PRESSURE WEAKENS NEXT WEAK FOR
A VERY SLOW COOLING TREND.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
REST OF TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY...
RAOB TRENDS FROM THIS MORNING INDICATED LITTLE CHANGE IN LOWER LEVEL
TEMPERATURES OVER EASTERN PORTIONS OF ARIZONA WITH INCREASING
WARMING FURTHER WEST. SURFACE TEMPERATURE TRENDS FOR EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON REFLECT THIS PATTERN WITH LITTLE CHANGE IN OUR EASTERN
AREAS AND 5-10 DEG OF WARMING IN SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA...COMPARED TO
24 HOURS AGO. AN UPPER TROUGH MOVING THROUGH THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST
AND GREAT BASIN WILL BRUSH ARIZONA WEDNESDAY KEEPING TEMPERATURE
TRENDS PRETTY FLAT. A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE NORTHEAST
PACIFIC WILL THEN SLOWLY MOVE INLAND LEADING TO A WARMING TREND
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. THAT MEANS HIGHS IN THE UPPER 90S ON THE
SOUTH-CENTRAL AZ DESERTS AND AROUND 100 OR SLIGHTLY HIGHER OVER
SOUTHWEST AZ AND SOUTHEAST CA. AT THE SAME TIME...STRONG SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE BECOMES CENTERED OVER THE GREAT BASIN. WITH LOWER
PRESSURE OVER NORTHWEST MEXICO...THIS LEADS TO A NORTH AND NORTHEAST
ORIENTED PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS ARIZONA AND SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA.
IN TURN THERE WILL OFF AND ON BREEZINESS...MOST NOTICEABLY OVER THE
LOWER COLORADO RIVER VALLEY AND FOOTHILL LOCATIONS OF NORTHERN
MARICOPA COUNTY.

SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...
ANTICIPATE LITTLE CHANGE IN TEMPERATURES OVER THE WEEKEND. THE
SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT WEAKENS AND THE LIGHT DIURNAL WIND
PATTERNS WILL PREVAIL. THE RIDGE STARTS TO WEAKEN EARLY NEXT WEEK
AND SOME HIGH CLOUDS MOVE THROUGH AS WELL WHICH LEADS TO A VERY SLOW
COOLING TREND.

&&

.AVIATION...
SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA INCLUDING KPHX...KIWA...AND KSDL...AND
SOUTHWEST ARIZONA AND SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA INCLUDING KIPL AND KBLH...

CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH
WEDNESDAY.

AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDED TAFS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...
A FEW DEGREES OF ADDITIONAL WARMING CAN BE EXPECTED FRIDAY WITH
LITTLE CHANGE SATURDAY AND SUNDAY BEFORE A SUBTLE COOLING TREND
MONDAY AND TUESDAY. MINIMUM HUMIDITIES WILL BE QUITE LOW FRIDAY
THROUGH SUNDAY BEFORE TRENDING UP MONDAY AND TUESDAY.
SIMILARLY...OVERNIGHT RECOVERY WILL BE POOR OVER SOUTHEAST
CALIFORNIA AND ONLY FAIR ELSEWHERE THROUGH SUNDAY BEFORE TRENDING
UPWARD. NORTH AND NORTHEAST BREEZES CONTINUE FRIDAY BEFORE LIGHT AND
VARIABLE WIND PATTERNS TAKE HOLD OVER THE WEEKEND.

&&

.PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

AZ...NONE.

CA...NONE.

&&

$$

VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/PHOENIX

DISCUSSION...AJ
AVIATION...AJ
FIRE WEATHER...AJ










000
FXUS65 KPSR 301625
AFDPSR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PHOENIX AZ
925 AM MST TUE SEP 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
DRY NORTHWEST FLOW WILL ESTABLISH ITSELF OVER THE AREA THIS
WEEK...KEEPING SKIES MOSTLY CLEAR AND RAINFALL CHANCES NIL.
TEMPERATURES WILL BEGIN THE WEEK SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL AND GRADUALLY
WARM THROUGH THE WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE STRENGTHENS OVER THE WEST.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS THE WEATHER SYSTEM WE HAD THIS PAST
WEEKEND NOW MOVING FROM THE ROCKIES ONTO THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN
GREAT PLAINS. WEST OF THAT A WEAKER SYSTEM IS MOVING THROUGH THE
PACIFIC NORTHWEST AND GREAT BASIN. FURTHER WEST...THERE IS A RIDGE
OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE NORTHEAST PACIFIC. THIS LEAVES DRY
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW OVER OUR FORECAST AREA. RAOB TRENDS OVER THE PAST
24 HOURS SHOW VERY LITTLE WARMING IN THE LOWER LEVELS AT TWC WITH
INCREASING WARMING FURTHER WEST...ESPECIALLY AT NKX. FORECAST HIGHS
FOR TODAY REFLECT THIS THOUGH SOME TWEAKS WERE MADE. THE UPPER
TROUGH TO OUR NORTHWEST WILL BRUSH ARIZONA WEDNESDAY KEEPING
TEMPERATURE TRENDS PRETTY FLAT. MORE LATER.

&&

.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION ISSUED 307 AM...
LARGE UPPER LOW RESPONSIBLE FOR THIS WEEKEND`S WEATHER EVENT ACROSS
THE SOUTHWEST STATES NOW IS CIRCULATING INTO THE PLAINS STATES...WITH
DRY NORTHWEST FLOW DRAPED ACROSS MUCH OF THE WESTERN CONUS THIS AM.
NEARLY CLOUDLESS SKIES OBSERVED ACROSS SOUTHEAST CA AND MUCH OF
AZ...SAVE FOR SOME MID-LEVEL STRATUS DECKS SKIRTING THE NORTHERN AZ
BORDER NEAR PAGE. GENERALLY LITTLE CHANGE NOTED ON AREA TEMPERATURES
THIS MORNING COMPARED TO MONDAY...WITH LOW 60S TO LOW 70S OBSERVED AT
MOST SITES. WHILE THE BROADER DEWPOINT TREND HAS BEEN DRIER THROUGH
THIS EARLY WEEK...OBSERVED VALUES HAVE WIDELY VARIED DURING THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS OVER MANY OF THE LOWER DESERT ELEVATIONS. EXPECT
THIS TO CONTINUE THE NEXT FEW MORNINGS AS SURFACE CONDITIONS STILL
HOLD SOME MOISTURE FROM RECENT RAINFALL AND TEMPERATURES HAVEN`T
BEEN TOO WARM TO HELP EVAPORATE THIS MOISTURE AWAY. WHERE THE
MORNINGS WILL HAVE A WIDE RANGE OF VALUES... AFTERNOON MIXING FOR
THE NEXT FEW DAYS SHOULD DROP READINGS INTO THE UPPER 30S TO LOW
40S...POSSIBLY EVEN DRIER OVER PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST CA.

DRY NORTHWEST FLOW WILL PERSIST THROUGH THURSDAY OVER MUCH OF THE
WEST...WITH ANOTHER SWIFT SHORTWAVE DISTURBANCE DROPPING OUT OF
BRITISH COLUMBIA CANADA AND INTO THE GREAT BASIN STATES LATE
WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY. 850MB TEMPERATURE PLOTS AND MSLP ANALYSIS
SHOW THE FRONT STALLING OVER NORTHERN AZ...WITH NORTH TO
NORTHEASTERLY FLOW FILTERING DOWN THE COLORADO RIVER VALLEY AND
THROUGH THE MOGOLLON RIM. NOTICEABLY BREEZY CONDITIONS WILL DEVELOP
ALONG THE COLORADO RIVER OF 10 TO 15 MPH WITH SOME PERIODS OF
ENHANCED GUSTINESS POSSIBLE THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY. WITH LOWERED
SHORTWAVE HEIGHTS TO THE NORTH/NORTHEAST OF PHOENIX...NEAR OR JUST
BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES (LOW 90S) WILL HOLD THROUGH THURSDAY. THE
WESTERN FORECAST AREA BEING JUST OUT OF RANGE OF THE THERMAL PROFILE
OF THE FRONT WILL SEE SLIGHTLY WARMER CONDITIONS IN THE MID TO UPPER
90S.

PACIFIC RIDGING WILL QUICKLY BUILD INTO THE SOUTHWEST DESERTS
BEGINNING EARLY FRIDAY. TEMPERATURES UNDER THIS PATTERN LOOK TO PEAK
ON SATURDAY WITH THE WARMER WESTERN DESERTS IN THE 100-105F RANGE AND
94-99F FOR THE LOWER AZ DESERTS WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT
WINDS. BY THE SUNDAY-MONDAY PERIOD...THE UPPER RIDGE CIRCULATION
CENTER WILL TRANSITION TO OUR EAST/SOUTHEAST AS BROAD
TROUGHING/SHORTWAVE ENERGY FROM OVER THE GREAT LAKES EXPANDS BACK
INTO THE CENTRAL PORTIONS OF THE COUNTRY AND ANOTHER AREA OF WEAK
TROUGHING/LOWER HEIGHT ANOMALY MOVES IN ALONG 30N IN THE EASTERN
PACIFIC.

ACTIVITY FROM THE EASTERN PACIFIC TROPICS COULD PLAY A ROLE IN THE
EXTENDED PERIOD BY THE MIDDLE PART OF NEXT WEEK. LATEST NHC FORECAST
HAS AN AREA WELL SOUTH OF ACAPULCO, MEXICO PROGGED FOR TROPICAL
CYCLONE FORMATION AT 90 PERCENT WITHIN THE NEXT 5 DAYS. BOTH THE GFS
AND ECMWF PICK UP ON THE POTENTIAL TROPICAL SYSTEM...THE NEXT NAME ON
THE CYCLONE LIST IS SIMON...AS IT MOVES FURTHER INTO THE PACIFIC
WATERS AND EVENTUALLY TURNING NORTHWESTWARD. WHILE IT IS FAR TOO
EARLY TO HANG A HAT ON ANY ONE MODEL SOLUTION...STORM PATH OR STORM
EVOLUTION...THE REPOSITIONING OF THE UPPER RIDGE TO OUR
EAST/SOUTHEAST COULD TRANSPORT SOME ELEVATED MOISTURE FIELDS THAT
WORK UP THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA BACK INTO NORTHERN MEXICO AND THE
SOUTHWEST STATES. WITH UPPER RIDGE HEIGHTS REMOVED FROM THE AREA
DURING THIS PERIOD...TEMPERATURES WILL SCALE BACK TO MORE NORMAL
READINGS AND POSSIBLY COOLER IF ELEVATED DEWPOINTS AND HUMIDITIES
MAKE SOME SORT OF A COMEBACK.

&&

.AVIATION...
SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA INCLUDING KPHX...KIWA...AND KSDL...AND
SOUTHWEST ARIZONA AND SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA INCLUDING KIPL AND KBLH...

LIGHT DIURNAL WINDS AND MAINLY CLEAR SKIES WILL PREDOMINATE AT ALL
TAF SITES THROUGH WEDNESDAY. NO AVIATION WEATHER IMPACTS ANTICIPATED.

AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDED TAFS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY...
WITH VIRTUALLY NO CHANCE OF RAINFALL THROUGH THE
PERIOD...TEMPERATURES WILL BE MAINTAINED IN A SLIGHTLY ABOVE AVERAGE
CATEGORY. MINIMUM HUMIDITY LEVELS WILL REMAIN RELATIVELY STEADY
THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD...DROPPING INTO THE TEENS ACROSS LOWER
ELEVATIONS. OVERNIGHT RECOVERY WILL BE GOOD. WINDS WILL BE
UNSEASONABLY LIGHT WITH OCCASIONAL AFTERNOON BREEZINESS IN UPSLOPE
AREAS.

&&

.PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

AZ...NONE.

CA...NONE.

&&

$$

VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/PHOENIX

DISCUSSION...AJ
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...NOLTE
AVIATION...HIRSCH
FIRE WEATHER...MO






000
FXUS65 KPSR 301625
AFDPSR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PHOENIX AZ
925 AM MST TUE SEP 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
DRY NORTHWEST FLOW WILL ESTABLISH ITSELF OVER THE AREA THIS
WEEK...KEEPING SKIES MOSTLY CLEAR AND RAINFALL CHANCES NIL.
TEMPERATURES WILL BEGIN THE WEEK SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL AND GRADUALLY
WARM THROUGH THE WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE STRENGTHENS OVER THE WEST.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS THE WEATHER SYSTEM WE HAD THIS PAST
WEEKEND NOW MOVING FROM THE ROCKIES ONTO THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN
GREAT PLAINS. WEST OF THAT A WEAKER SYSTEM IS MOVING THROUGH THE
PACIFIC NORTHWEST AND GREAT BASIN. FURTHER WEST...THERE IS A RIDGE
OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE NORTHEAST PACIFIC. THIS LEAVES DRY
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW OVER OUR FORECAST AREA. RAOB TRENDS OVER THE PAST
24 HOURS SHOW VERY LITTLE WARMING IN THE LOWER LEVELS AT TWC WITH
INCREASING WARMING FURTHER WEST...ESPECIALLY AT NKX. FORECAST HIGHS
FOR TODAY REFLECT THIS THOUGH SOME TWEAKS WERE MADE. THE UPPER
TROUGH TO OUR NORTHWEST WILL BRUSH ARIZONA WEDNESDAY KEEPING
TEMPERATURE TRENDS PRETTY FLAT. MORE LATER.

&&

.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION ISSUED 307 AM...
LARGE UPPER LOW RESPONSIBLE FOR THIS WEEKEND`S WEATHER EVENT ACROSS
THE SOUTHWEST STATES NOW IS CIRCULATING INTO THE PLAINS STATES...WITH
DRY NORTHWEST FLOW DRAPED ACROSS MUCH OF THE WESTERN CONUS THIS AM.
NEARLY CLOUDLESS SKIES OBSERVED ACROSS SOUTHEAST CA AND MUCH OF
AZ...SAVE FOR SOME MID-LEVEL STRATUS DECKS SKIRTING THE NORTHERN AZ
BORDER NEAR PAGE. GENERALLY LITTLE CHANGE NOTED ON AREA TEMPERATURES
THIS MORNING COMPARED TO MONDAY...WITH LOW 60S TO LOW 70S OBSERVED AT
MOST SITES. WHILE THE BROADER DEWPOINT TREND HAS BEEN DRIER THROUGH
THIS EARLY WEEK...OBSERVED VALUES HAVE WIDELY VARIED DURING THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS OVER MANY OF THE LOWER DESERT ELEVATIONS. EXPECT
THIS TO CONTINUE THE NEXT FEW MORNINGS AS SURFACE CONDITIONS STILL
HOLD SOME MOISTURE FROM RECENT RAINFALL AND TEMPERATURES HAVEN`T
BEEN TOO WARM TO HELP EVAPORATE THIS MOISTURE AWAY. WHERE THE
MORNINGS WILL HAVE A WIDE RANGE OF VALUES... AFTERNOON MIXING FOR
THE NEXT FEW DAYS SHOULD DROP READINGS INTO THE UPPER 30S TO LOW
40S...POSSIBLY EVEN DRIER OVER PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST CA.

DRY NORTHWEST FLOW WILL PERSIST THROUGH THURSDAY OVER MUCH OF THE
WEST...WITH ANOTHER SWIFT SHORTWAVE DISTURBANCE DROPPING OUT OF
BRITISH COLUMBIA CANADA AND INTO THE GREAT BASIN STATES LATE
WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY. 850MB TEMPERATURE PLOTS AND MSLP ANALYSIS
SHOW THE FRONT STALLING OVER NORTHERN AZ...WITH NORTH TO
NORTHEASTERLY FLOW FILTERING DOWN THE COLORADO RIVER VALLEY AND
THROUGH THE MOGOLLON RIM. NOTICEABLY BREEZY CONDITIONS WILL DEVELOP
ALONG THE COLORADO RIVER OF 10 TO 15 MPH WITH SOME PERIODS OF
ENHANCED GUSTINESS POSSIBLE THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY. WITH LOWERED
SHORTWAVE HEIGHTS TO THE NORTH/NORTHEAST OF PHOENIX...NEAR OR JUST
BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES (LOW 90S) WILL HOLD THROUGH THURSDAY. THE
WESTERN FORECAST AREA BEING JUST OUT OF RANGE OF THE THERMAL PROFILE
OF THE FRONT WILL SEE SLIGHTLY WARMER CONDITIONS IN THE MID TO UPPER
90S.

PACIFIC RIDGING WILL QUICKLY BUILD INTO THE SOUTHWEST DESERTS
BEGINNING EARLY FRIDAY. TEMPERATURES UNDER THIS PATTERN LOOK TO PEAK
ON SATURDAY WITH THE WARMER WESTERN DESERTS IN THE 100-105F RANGE AND
94-99F FOR THE LOWER AZ DESERTS WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT
WINDS. BY THE SUNDAY-MONDAY PERIOD...THE UPPER RIDGE CIRCULATION
CENTER WILL TRANSITION TO OUR EAST/SOUTHEAST AS BROAD
TROUGHING/SHORTWAVE ENERGY FROM OVER THE GREAT LAKES EXPANDS BACK
INTO THE CENTRAL PORTIONS OF THE COUNTRY AND ANOTHER AREA OF WEAK
TROUGHING/LOWER HEIGHT ANOMALY MOVES IN ALONG 30N IN THE EASTERN
PACIFIC.

ACTIVITY FROM THE EASTERN PACIFIC TROPICS COULD PLAY A ROLE IN THE
EXTENDED PERIOD BY THE MIDDLE PART OF NEXT WEEK. LATEST NHC FORECAST
HAS AN AREA WELL SOUTH OF ACAPULCO, MEXICO PROGGED FOR TROPICAL
CYCLONE FORMATION AT 90 PERCENT WITHIN THE NEXT 5 DAYS. BOTH THE GFS
AND ECMWF PICK UP ON THE POTENTIAL TROPICAL SYSTEM...THE NEXT NAME ON
THE CYCLONE LIST IS SIMON...AS IT MOVES FURTHER INTO THE PACIFIC
WATERS AND EVENTUALLY TURNING NORTHWESTWARD. WHILE IT IS FAR TOO
EARLY TO HANG A HAT ON ANY ONE MODEL SOLUTION...STORM PATH OR STORM
EVOLUTION...THE REPOSITIONING OF THE UPPER RIDGE TO OUR
EAST/SOUTHEAST COULD TRANSPORT SOME ELEVATED MOISTURE FIELDS THAT
WORK UP THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA BACK INTO NORTHERN MEXICO AND THE
SOUTHWEST STATES. WITH UPPER RIDGE HEIGHTS REMOVED FROM THE AREA
DURING THIS PERIOD...TEMPERATURES WILL SCALE BACK TO MORE NORMAL
READINGS AND POSSIBLY COOLER IF ELEVATED DEWPOINTS AND HUMIDITIES
MAKE SOME SORT OF A COMEBACK.

&&

.AVIATION...
SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA INCLUDING KPHX...KIWA...AND KSDL...AND
SOUTHWEST ARIZONA AND SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA INCLUDING KIPL AND KBLH...

LIGHT DIURNAL WINDS AND MAINLY CLEAR SKIES WILL PREDOMINATE AT ALL
TAF SITES THROUGH WEDNESDAY. NO AVIATION WEATHER IMPACTS ANTICIPATED.

AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDED TAFS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY...
WITH VIRTUALLY NO CHANCE OF RAINFALL THROUGH THE
PERIOD...TEMPERATURES WILL BE MAINTAINED IN A SLIGHTLY ABOVE AVERAGE
CATEGORY. MINIMUM HUMIDITY LEVELS WILL REMAIN RELATIVELY STEADY
THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD...DROPPING INTO THE TEENS ACROSS LOWER
ELEVATIONS. OVERNIGHT RECOVERY WILL BE GOOD. WINDS WILL BE
UNSEASONABLY LIGHT WITH OCCASIONAL AFTERNOON BREEZINESS IN UPSLOPE
AREAS.

&&

.PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

AZ...NONE.

CA...NONE.

&&

$$

VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/PHOENIX

DISCUSSION...AJ
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...NOLTE
AVIATION...HIRSCH
FIRE WEATHER...MO






000
FXUS65 KPSR 301625
AFDPSR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PHOENIX AZ
925 AM MST TUE SEP 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
DRY NORTHWEST FLOW WILL ESTABLISH ITSELF OVER THE AREA THIS
WEEK...KEEPING SKIES MOSTLY CLEAR AND RAINFALL CHANCES NIL.
TEMPERATURES WILL BEGIN THE WEEK SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL AND GRADUALLY
WARM THROUGH THE WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE STRENGTHENS OVER THE WEST.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS THE WEATHER SYSTEM WE HAD THIS PAST
WEEKEND NOW MOVING FROM THE ROCKIES ONTO THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN
GREAT PLAINS. WEST OF THAT A WEAKER SYSTEM IS MOVING THROUGH THE
PACIFIC NORTHWEST AND GREAT BASIN. FURTHER WEST...THERE IS A RIDGE
OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE NORTHEAST PACIFIC. THIS LEAVES DRY
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW OVER OUR FORECAST AREA. RAOB TRENDS OVER THE PAST
24 HOURS SHOW VERY LITTLE WARMING IN THE LOWER LEVELS AT TWC WITH
INCREASING WARMING FURTHER WEST...ESPECIALLY AT NKX. FORECAST HIGHS
FOR TODAY REFLECT THIS THOUGH SOME TWEAKS WERE MADE. THE UPPER
TROUGH TO OUR NORTHWEST WILL BRUSH ARIZONA WEDNESDAY KEEPING
TEMPERATURE TRENDS PRETTY FLAT. MORE LATER.

&&

.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION ISSUED 307 AM...
LARGE UPPER LOW RESPONSIBLE FOR THIS WEEKEND`S WEATHER EVENT ACROSS
THE SOUTHWEST STATES NOW IS CIRCULATING INTO THE PLAINS STATES...WITH
DRY NORTHWEST FLOW DRAPED ACROSS MUCH OF THE WESTERN CONUS THIS AM.
NEARLY CLOUDLESS SKIES OBSERVED ACROSS SOUTHEAST CA AND MUCH OF
AZ...SAVE FOR SOME MID-LEVEL STRATUS DECKS SKIRTING THE NORTHERN AZ
BORDER NEAR PAGE. GENERALLY LITTLE CHANGE NOTED ON AREA TEMPERATURES
THIS MORNING COMPARED TO MONDAY...WITH LOW 60S TO LOW 70S OBSERVED AT
MOST SITES. WHILE THE BROADER DEWPOINT TREND HAS BEEN DRIER THROUGH
THIS EARLY WEEK...OBSERVED VALUES HAVE WIDELY VARIED DURING THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS OVER MANY OF THE LOWER DESERT ELEVATIONS. EXPECT
THIS TO CONTINUE THE NEXT FEW MORNINGS AS SURFACE CONDITIONS STILL
HOLD SOME MOISTURE FROM RECENT RAINFALL AND TEMPERATURES HAVEN`T
BEEN TOO WARM TO HELP EVAPORATE THIS MOISTURE AWAY. WHERE THE
MORNINGS WILL HAVE A WIDE RANGE OF VALUES... AFTERNOON MIXING FOR
THE NEXT FEW DAYS SHOULD DROP READINGS INTO THE UPPER 30S TO LOW
40S...POSSIBLY EVEN DRIER OVER PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST CA.

DRY NORTHWEST FLOW WILL PERSIST THROUGH THURSDAY OVER MUCH OF THE
WEST...WITH ANOTHER SWIFT SHORTWAVE DISTURBANCE DROPPING OUT OF
BRITISH COLUMBIA CANADA AND INTO THE GREAT BASIN STATES LATE
WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY. 850MB TEMPERATURE PLOTS AND MSLP ANALYSIS
SHOW THE FRONT STALLING OVER NORTHERN AZ...WITH NORTH TO
NORTHEASTERLY FLOW FILTERING DOWN THE COLORADO RIVER VALLEY AND
THROUGH THE MOGOLLON RIM. NOTICEABLY BREEZY CONDITIONS WILL DEVELOP
ALONG THE COLORADO RIVER OF 10 TO 15 MPH WITH SOME PERIODS OF
ENHANCED GUSTINESS POSSIBLE THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY. WITH LOWERED
SHORTWAVE HEIGHTS TO THE NORTH/NORTHEAST OF PHOENIX...NEAR OR JUST
BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES (LOW 90S) WILL HOLD THROUGH THURSDAY. THE
WESTERN FORECAST AREA BEING JUST OUT OF RANGE OF THE THERMAL PROFILE
OF THE FRONT WILL SEE SLIGHTLY WARMER CONDITIONS IN THE MID TO UPPER
90S.

PACIFIC RIDGING WILL QUICKLY BUILD INTO THE SOUTHWEST DESERTS
BEGINNING EARLY FRIDAY. TEMPERATURES UNDER THIS PATTERN LOOK TO PEAK
ON SATURDAY WITH THE WARMER WESTERN DESERTS IN THE 100-105F RANGE AND
94-99F FOR THE LOWER AZ DESERTS WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT
WINDS. BY THE SUNDAY-MONDAY PERIOD...THE UPPER RIDGE CIRCULATION
CENTER WILL TRANSITION TO OUR EAST/SOUTHEAST AS BROAD
TROUGHING/SHORTWAVE ENERGY FROM OVER THE GREAT LAKES EXPANDS BACK
INTO THE CENTRAL PORTIONS OF THE COUNTRY AND ANOTHER AREA OF WEAK
TROUGHING/LOWER HEIGHT ANOMALY MOVES IN ALONG 30N IN THE EASTERN
PACIFIC.

ACTIVITY FROM THE EASTERN PACIFIC TROPICS COULD PLAY A ROLE IN THE
EXTENDED PERIOD BY THE MIDDLE PART OF NEXT WEEK. LATEST NHC FORECAST
HAS AN AREA WELL SOUTH OF ACAPULCO, MEXICO PROGGED FOR TROPICAL
CYCLONE FORMATION AT 90 PERCENT WITHIN THE NEXT 5 DAYS. BOTH THE GFS
AND ECMWF PICK UP ON THE POTENTIAL TROPICAL SYSTEM...THE NEXT NAME ON
THE CYCLONE LIST IS SIMON...AS IT MOVES FURTHER INTO THE PACIFIC
WATERS AND EVENTUALLY TURNING NORTHWESTWARD. WHILE IT IS FAR TOO
EARLY TO HANG A HAT ON ANY ONE MODEL SOLUTION...STORM PATH OR STORM
EVOLUTION...THE REPOSITIONING OF THE UPPER RIDGE TO OUR
EAST/SOUTHEAST COULD TRANSPORT SOME ELEVATED MOISTURE FIELDS THAT
WORK UP THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA BACK INTO NORTHERN MEXICO AND THE
SOUTHWEST STATES. WITH UPPER RIDGE HEIGHTS REMOVED FROM THE AREA
DURING THIS PERIOD...TEMPERATURES WILL SCALE BACK TO MORE NORMAL
READINGS AND POSSIBLY COOLER IF ELEVATED DEWPOINTS AND HUMIDITIES
MAKE SOME SORT OF A COMEBACK.

&&

.AVIATION...
SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA INCLUDING KPHX...KIWA...AND KSDL...AND
SOUTHWEST ARIZONA AND SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA INCLUDING KIPL AND KBLH...

LIGHT DIURNAL WINDS AND MAINLY CLEAR SKIES WILL PREDOMINATE AT ALL
TAF SITES THROUGH WEDNESDAY. NO AVIATION WEATHER IMPACTS ANTICIPATED.

AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDED TAFS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY...
WITH VIRTUALLY NO CHANCE OF RAINFALL THROUGH THE
PERIOD...TEMPERATURES WILL BE MAINTAINED IN A SLIGHTLY ABOVE AVERAGE
CATEGORY. MINIMUM HUMIDITY LEVELS WILL REMAIN RELATIVELY STEADY
THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD...DROPPING INTO THE TEENS ACROSS LOWER
ELEVATIONS. OVERNIGHT RECOVERY WILL BE GOOD. WINDS WILL BE
UNSEASONABLY LIGHT WITH OCCASIONAL AFTERNOON BREEZINESS IN UPSLOPE
AREAS.

&&

.PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

AZ...NONE.

CA...NONE.

&&

$$

VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/PHOENIX

DISCUSSION...AJ
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...NOLTE
AVIATION...HIRSCH
FIRE WEATHER...MO






000
FXUS65 KPSR 301625
AFDPSR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PHOENIX AZ
925 AM MST TUE SEP 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
DRY NORTHWEST FLOW WILL ESTABLISH ITSELF OVER THE AREA THIS
WEEK...KEEPING SKIES MOSTLY CLEAR AND RAINFALL CHANCES NIL.
TEMPERATURES WILL BEGIN THE WEEK SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL AND GRADUALLY
WARM THROUGH THE WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE STRENGTHENS OVER THE WEST.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS THE WEATHER SYSTEM WE HAD THIS PAST
WEEKEND NOW MOVING FROM THE ROCKIES ONTO THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN
GREAT PLAINS. WEST OF THAT A WEAKER SYSTEM IS MOVING THROUGH THE
PACIFIC NORTHWEST AND GREAT BASIN. FURTHER WEST...THERE IS A RIDGE
OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE NORTHEAST PACIFIC. THIS LEAVES DRY
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW OVER OUR FORECAST AREA. RAOB TRENDS OVER THE PAST
24 HOURS SHOW VERY LITTLE WARMING IN THE LOWER LEVELS AT TWC WITH
INCREASING WARMING FURTHER WEST...ESPECIALLY AT NKX. FORECAST HIGHS
FOR TODAY REFLECT THIS THOUGH SOME TWEAKS WERE MADE. THE UPPER
TROUGH TO OUR NORTHWEST WILL BRUSH ARIZONA WEDNESDAY KEEPING
TEMPERATURE TRENDS PRETTY FLAT. MORE LATER.

&&

.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION ISSUED 307 AM...
LARGE UPPER LOW RESPONSIBLE FOR THIS WEEKEND`S WEATHER EVENT ACROSS
THE SOUTHWEST STATES NOW IS CIRCULATING INTO THE PLAINS STATES...WITH
DRY NORTHWEST FLOW DRAPED ACROSS MUCH OF THE WESTERN CONUS THIS AM.
NEARLY CLOUDLESS SKIES OBSERVED ACROSS SOUTHEAST CA AND MUCH OF
AZ...SAVE FOR SOME MID-LEVEL STRATUS DECKS SKIRTING THE NORTHERN AZ
BORDER NEAR PAGE. GENERALLY LITTLE CHANGE NOTED ON AREA TEMPERATURES
THIS MORNING COMPARED TO MONDAY...WITH LOW 60S TO LOW 70S OBSERVED AT
MOST SITES. WHILE THE BROADER DEWPOINT TREND HAS BEEN DRIER THROUGH
THIS EARLY WEEK...OBSERVED VALUES HAVE WIDELY VARIED DURING THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS OVER MANY OF THE LOWER DESERT ELEVATIONS. EXPECT
THIS TO CONTINUE THE NEXT FEW MORNINGS AS SURFACE CONDITIONS STILL
HOLD SOME MOISTURE FROM RECENT RAINFALL AND TEMPERATURES HAVEN`T
BEEN TOO WARM TO HELP EVAPORATE THIS MOISTURE AWAY. WHERE THE
MORNINGS WILL HAVE A WIDE RANGE OF VALUES... AFTERNOON MIXING FOR
THE NEXT FEW DAYS SHOULD DROP READINGS INTO THE UPPER 30S TO LOW
40S...POSSIBLY EVEN DRIER OVER PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST CA.

DRY NORTHWEST FLOW WILL PERSIST THROUGH THURSDAY OVER MUCH OF THE
WEST...WITH ANOTHER SWIFT SHORTWAVE DISTURBANCE DROPPING OUT OF
BRITISH COLUMBIA CANADA AND INTO THE GREAT BASIN STATES LATE
WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY. 850MB TEMPERATURE PLOTS AND MSLP ANALYSIS
SHOW THE FRONT STALLING OVER NORTHERN AZ...WITH NORTH TO
NORTHEASTERLY FLOW FILTERING DOWN THE COLORADO RIVER VALLEY AND
THROUGH THE MOGOLLON RIM. NOTICEABLY BREEZY CONDITIONS WILL DEVELOP
ALONG THE COLORADO RIVER OF 10 TO 15 MPH WITH SOME PERIODS OF
ENHANCED GUSTINESS POSSIBLE THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY. WITH LOWERED
SHORTWAVE HEIGHTS TO THE NORTH/NORTHEAST OF PHOENIX...NEAR OR JUST
BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES (LOW 90S) WILL HOLD THROUGH THURSDAY. THE
WESTERN FORECAST AREA BEING JUST OUT OF RANGE OF THE THERMAL PROFILE
OF THE FRONT WILL SEE SLIGHTLY WARMER CONDITIONS IN THE MID TO UPPER
90S.

PACIFIC RIDGING WILL QUICKLY BUILD INTO THE SOUTHWEST DESERTS
BEGINNING EARLY FRIDAY. TEMPERATURES UNDER THIS PATTERN LOOK TO PEAK
ON SATURDAY WITH THE WARMER WESTERN DESERTS IN THE 100-105F RANGE AND
94-99F FOR THE LOWER AZ DESERTS WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT
WINDS. BY THE SUNDAY-MONDAY PERIOD...THE UPPER RIDGE CIRCULATION
CENTER WILL TRANSITION TO OUR EAST/SOUTHEAST AS BROAD
TROUGHING/SHORTWAVE ENERGY FROM OVER THE GREAT LAKES EXPANDS BACK
INTO THE CENTRAL PORTIONS OF THE COUNTRY AND ANOTHER AREA OF WEAK
TROUGHING/LOWER HEIGHT ANOMALY MOVES IN ALONG 30N IN THE EASTERN
PACIFIC.

ACTIVITY FROM THE EASTERN PACIFIC TROPICS COULD PLAY A ROLE IN THE
EXTENDED PERIOD BY THE MIDDLE PART OF NEXT WEEK. LATEST NHC FORECAST
HAS AN AREA WELL SOUTH OF ACAPULCO, MEXICO PROGGED FOR TROPICAL
CYCLONE FORMATION AT 90 PERCENT WITHIN THE NEXT 5 DAYS. BOTH THE GFS
AND ECMWF PICK UP ON THE POTENTIAL TROPICAL SYSTEM...THE NEXT NAME ON
THE CYCLONE LIST IS SIMON...AS IT MOVES FURTHER INTO THE PACIFIC
WATERS AND EVENTUALLY TURNING NORTHWESTWARD. WHILE IT IS FAR TOO
EARLY TO HANG A HAT ON ANY ONE MODEL SOLUTION...STORM PATH OR STORM
EVOLUTION...THE REPOSITIONING OF THE UPPER RIDGE TO OUR
EAST/SOUTHEAST COULD TRANSPORT SOME ELEVATED MOISTURE FIELDS THAT
WORK UP THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA BACK INTO NORTHERN MEXICO AND THE
SOUTHWEST STATES. WITH UPPER RIDGE HEIGHTS REMOVED FROM THE AREA
DURING THIS PERIOD...TEMPERATURES WILL SCALE BACK TO MORE NORMAL
READINGS AND POSSIBLY COOLER IF ELEVATED DEWPOINTS AND HUMIDITIES
MAKE SOME SORT OF A COMEBACK.

&&

.AVIATION...
SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA INCLUDING KPHX...KIWA...AND KSDL...AND
SOUTHWEST ARIZONA AND SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA INCLUDING KIPL AND KBLH...

LIGHT DIURNAL WINDS AND MAINLY CLEAR SKIES WILL PREDOMINATE AT ALL
TAF SITES THROUGH WEDNESDAY. NO AVIATION WEATHER IMPACTS ANTICIPATED.

AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDED TAFS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY...
WITH VIRTUALLY NO CHANCE OF RAINFALL THROUGH THE
PERIOD...TEMPERATURES WILL BE MAINTAINED IN A SLIGHTLY ABOVE AVERAGE
CATEGORY. MINIMUM HUMIDITY LEVELS WILL REMAIN RELATIVELY STEADY
THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD...DROPPING INTO THE TEENS ACROSS LOWER
ELEVATIONS. OVERNIGHT RECOVERY WILL BE GOOD. WINDS WILL BE
UNSEASONABLY LIGHT WITH OCCASIONAL AFTERNOON BREEZINESS IN UPSLOPE
AREAS.

&&

.PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

AZ...NONE.

CA...NONE.

&&

$$

VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/PHOENIX

DISCUSSION...AJ
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...NOLTE
AVIATION...HIRSCH
FIRE WEATHER...MO






000
FXUS65 KTWC 301612
AFDTWC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ
912 AM MST TUE SEP 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...DRY CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL INTO THIS WEEKEND. A GRADUAL
WARMING TREND WILL OCCUR ESPECIALLY DURING THE LATTER PART OF THE
WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT BUILDS OVER THE AREA.

&&

.DISCUSSION...WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND 30/12Z UPPER-AIR PLOTS SHOW
NEARLY ZONAL FLOW ACROSS THE DESERT SOUTHWEST BEHIND THE EXITING
SYSTEM THAT IS CURRENTLY OVER THE NORTHERN ROCKIES/PLAINS STATES.
ANOTHER SYSTEM EXPECTED TO BRUSH THROUGH NORTHERN ARIZONA EARLY
WEDNESDAY...THEN SWING THROUGH THE EASTERN PART OF THE STATE LATE
WEDNESDAY OR EARLY THURSDAY...BUT NO PRECIPITATION WITH THAT
SYSTEM.

IR SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOW MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES ACROSS MUCH OF
ARIZONA...WITH A FEW CLOUDS JUST TO OUR SOUTH AND EAST.

AS OF 16Z (9 AM MST)...TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE REGION RANGED FROM
THE MID 60S TO 70 DEGS. THESE READINGS ARE AROUND 3 TO 6 DEGS COOLER
THAN THIS TIME YESTERDAY. WE ARE CONSIDERABLY DRIER VERSUS 24 HOURS
AGO...WITH DEWPOINT TEMPERATURES RANGING FROM THE UPPER 30S AT
SAFFORD TO THE LOWER 50S ALONG THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER. THESE
READINGS RANGE FROM 8 TO 18 DEGS COOLER THAN 24 HOURS AGO. IN
ADDITION...THIS MORNINGS KTWC 12Z SOUNDING SHOWED A PRECIPITABLE
WATER VALUE OF 0.48 INCHES...COMPARED TO 0.98 INCHES FROM YESTERDAY
MORNING. NEEDLESS TO SAY...THE MONSOON IS DEFINITELY OVER.

THE FORECAST FOR THIS AFTERNOON SEEMS TO BE ON TRACK...SO NO CHANGES
ARE PLANNED AT THIS TIME. FOR DETAILS REGARDING THE FORECAST BEYOND
TODAY...PLEASE REFER TO THE PREVIOUS DISCUSSION BELOW.

&&

AVIATION...VALID THRU 01/18Z.
EXPECT CLEAR SKIES INTO WEDNESDAY. SURFACE WIND EAST OF KTUS THIS
AFTERNOON WILL BE WLY/NWLY 10-15 KTS WITH GUSTS TO 20-25 KTS.
OTHERWISE...SURFACE WIND WILL BE MAINLY LESS THAN 10 KTS THRU
TONIGHT. AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR TAF AMENDMENTS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...DRY CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL INTO THIS WEEKEND.
DAYTIME MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITIES WILL LOWER THIS WEEK AS DRIER
AIR MOVES INTO THE REGION. 20-FOOT WINDS ACROSS GRAHAM...GREENLEE
AND COCHISE COUNTIES THIS AFTERNOON WILL BE WEST TO NORTHWEST AT
8-18 MPH. OTHERWISE...20-FOOT WINDS WILL BE LESS THAN 15 MPH THROUGH
THURSDAY. LOCALLY GUSTY EAST WINDS MAY OCCUR FRIDAY.

&&

.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...THE STORM TRACK WILL REMAIN NORTH OF THE
AREA...WITH A DRY WESTERLY FLOW BRINGING MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND
NORMAL DAYTIME TEMPERATURES. LATEST MODELS CONTINUED TO SHOW A RIDGE
OF HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT DEVELOPING OVER THE DESERT SOUTHWEST THURSDAY
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. THIS WILL RESULT IN CONTINUED CLEAR SKIES AND
SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL HIGH TEMPERATURES OVER THE WEEKEND INTO NEXT
WEEK. A TIGHT SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT WAS ALSO PROGGED TO DEVELOP
THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY...PRODUCING LOCALLY GUSTY EASTERLY WINDS.

&&

.TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.


&&

$$

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000
FXUS65 KTWC 301612
AFDTWC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ
912 AM MST TUE SEP 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...DRY CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL INTO THIS WEEKEND. A GRADUAL
WARMING TREND WILL OCCUR ESPECIALLY DURING THE LATTER PART OF THE
WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT BUILDS OVER THE AREA.

&&

.DISCUSSION...WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND 30/12Z UPPER-AIR PLOTS SHOW
NEARLY ZONAL FLOW ACROSS THE DESERT SOUTHWEST BEHIND THE EXITING
SYSTEM THAT IS CURRENTLY OVER THE NORTHERN ROCKIES/PLAINS STATES.
ANOTHER SYSTEM EXPECTED TO BRUSH THROUGH NORTHERN ARIZONA EARLY
WEDNESDAY...THEN SWING THROUGH THE EASTERN PART OF THE STATE LATE
WEDNESDAY OR EARLY THURSDAY...BUT NO PRECIPITATION WITH THAT
SYSTEM.

IR SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOW MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES ACROSS MUCH OF
ARIZONA...WITH A FEW CLOUDS JUST TO OUR SOUTH AND EAST.

AS OF 16Z (9 AM MST)...TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE REGION RANGED FROM
THE MID 60S TO 70 DEGS. THESE READINGS ARE AROUND 3 TO 6 DEGS COOLER
THAN THIS TIME YESTERDAY. WE ARE CONSIDERABLY DRIER VERSUS 24 HOURS
AGO...WITH DEWPOINT TEMPERATURES RANGING FROM THE UPPER 30S AT
SAFFORD TO THE LOWER 50S ALONG THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER. THESE
READINGS RANGE FROM 8 TO 18 DEGS COOLER THAN 24 HOURS AGO. IN
ADDITION...THIS MORNINGS KTWC 12Z SOUNDING SHOWED A PRECIPITABLE
WATER VALUE OF 0.48 INCHES...COMPARED TO 0.98 INCHES FROM YESTERDAY
MORNING. NEEDLESS TO SAY...THE MONSOON IS DEFINITELY OVER.

THE FORECAST FOR THIS AFTERNOON SEEMS TO BE ON TRACK...SO NO CHANGES
ARE PLANNED AT THIS TIME. FOR DETAILS REGARDING THE FORECAST BEYOND
TODAY...PLEASE REFER TO THE PREVIOUS DISCUSSION BELOW.

&&

AVIATION...VALID THRU 01/18Z.
EXPECT CLEAR SKIES INTO WEDNESDAY. SURFACE WIND EAST OF KTUS THIS
AFTERNOON WILL BE WLY/NWLY 10-15 KTS WITH GUSTS TO 20-25 KTS.
OTHERWISE...SURFACE WIND WILL BE MAINLY LESS THAN 10 KTS THRU
TONIGHT. AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR TAF AMENDMENTS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...DRY CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL INTO THIS WEEKEND.
DAYTIME MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITIES WILL LOWER THIS WEEK AS DRIER
AIR MOVES INTO THE REGION. 20-FOOT WINDS ACROSS GRAHAM...GREENLEE
AND COCHISE COUNTIES THIS AFTERNOON WILL BE WEST TO NORTHWEST AT
8-18 MPH. OTHERWISE...20-FOOT WINDS WILL BE LESS THAN 15 MPH THROUGH
THURSDAY. LOCALLY GUSTY EAST WINDS MAY OCCUR FRIDAY.

&&

.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...THE STORM TRACK WILL REMAIN NORTH OF THE
AREA...WITH A DRY WESTERLY FLOW BRINGING MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND
NORMAL DAYTIME TEMPERATURES. LATEST MODELS CONTINUED TO SHOW A RIDGE
OF HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT DEVELOPING OVER THE DESERT SOUTHWEST THURSDAY
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. THIS WILL RESULT IN CONTINUED CLEAR SKIES AND
SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL HIGH TEMPERATURES OVER THE WEEKEND INTO NEXT
WEEK. A TIGHT SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT WAS ALSO PROGGED TO DEVELOP
THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY...PRODUCING LOCALLY GUSTY EASTERLY WINDS.

&&

.TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.


&&

$$

VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...YOUTUBE...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/TUCSON







000
FXUS65 KTWC 301612
AFDTWC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ
912 AM MST TUE SEP 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...DRY CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL INTO THIS WEEKEND. A GRADUAL
WARMING TREND WILL OCCUR ESPECIALLY DURING THE LATTER PART OF THE
WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT BUILDS OVER THE AREA.

&&

.DISCUSSION...WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND 30/12Z UPPER-AIR PLOTS SHOW
NEARLY ZONAL FLOW ACROSS THE DESERT SOUTHWEST BEHIND THE EXITING
SYSTEM THAT IS CURRENTLY OVER THE NORTHERN ROCKIES/PLAINS STATES.
ANOTHER SYSTEM EXPECTED TO BRUSH THROUGH NORTHERN ARIZONA EARLY
WEDNESDAY...THEN SWING THROUGH THE EASTERN PART OF THE STATE LATE
WEDNESDAY OR EARLY THURSDAY...BUT NO PRECIPITATION WITH THAT
SYSTEM.

IR SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOW MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES ACROSS MUCH OF
ARIZONA...WITH A FEW CLOUDS JUST TO OUR SOUTH AND EAST.

AS OF 16Z (9 AM MST)...TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE REGION RANGED FROM
THE MID 60S TO 70 DEGS. THESE READINGS ARE AROUND 3 TO 6 DEGS COOLER
THAN THIS TIME YESTERDAY. WE ARE CONSIDERABLY DRIER VERSUS 24 HOURS
AGO...WITH DEWPOINT TEMPERATURES RANGING FROM THE UPPER 30S AT
SAFFORD TO THE LOWER 50S ALONG THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER. THESE
READINGS RANGE FROM 8 TO 18 DEGS COOLER THAN 24 HOURS AGO. IN
ADDITION...THIS MORNINGS KTWC 12Z SOUNDING SHOWED A PRECIPITABLE
WATER VALUE OF 0.48 INCHES...COMPARED TO 0.98 INCHES FROM YESTERDAY
MORNING. NEEDLESS TO SAY...THE MONSOON IS DEFINITELY OVER.

THE FORECAST FOR THIS AFTERNOON SEEMS TO BE ON TRACK...SO NO CHANGES
ARE PLANNED AT THIS TIME. FOR DETAILS REGARDING THE FORECAST BEYOND
TODAY...PLEASE REFER TO THE PREVIOUS DISCUSSION BELOW.

&&

AVIATION...VALID THRU 01/18Z.
EXPECT CLEAR SKIES INTO WEDNESDAY. SURFACE WIND EAST OF KTUS THIS
AFTERNOON WILL BE WLY/NWLY 10-15 KTS WITH GUSTS TO 20-25 KTS.
OTHERWISE...SURFACE WIND WILL BE MAINLY LESS THAN 10 KTS THRU
TONIGHT. AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR TAF AMENDMENTS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...DRY CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL INTO THIS WEEKEND.
DAYTIME MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITIES WILL LOWER THIS WEEK AS DRIER
AIR MOVES INTO THE REGION. 20-FOOT WINDS ACROSS GRAHAM...GREENLEE
AND COCHISE COUNTIES THIS AFTERNOON WILL BE WEST TO NORTHWEST AT
8-18 MPH. OTHERWISE...20-FOOT WINDS WILL BE LESS THAN 15 MPH THROUGH
THURSDAY. LOCALLY GUSTY EAST WINDS MAY OCCUR FRIDAY.

&&

.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...THE STORM TRACK WILL REMAIN NORTH OF THE
AREA...WITH A DRY WESTERLY FLOW BRINGING MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND
NORMAL DAYTIME TEMPERATURES. LATEST MODELS CONTINUED TO SHOW A RIDGE
OF HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT DEVELOPING OVER THE DESERT SOUTHWEST THURSDAY
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. THIS WILL RESULT IN CONTINUED CLEAR SKIES AND
SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL HIGH TEMPERATURES OVER THE WEEKEND INTO NEXT
WEEK. A TIGHT SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT WAS ALSO PROGGED TO DEVELOP
THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY...PRODUCING LOCALLY GUSTY EASTERLY WINDS.

&&

.TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.


&&

$$

VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...YOUTUBE...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/TUCSON







000
FXUS65 KTWC 301612
AFDTWC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ
912 AM MST TUE SEP 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...DRY CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL INTO THIS WEEKEND. A GRADUAL
WARMING TREND WILL OCCUR ESPECIALLY DURING THE LATTER PART OF THE
WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT BUILDS OVER THE AREA.

&&

.DISCUSSION...WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND 30/12Z UPPER-AIR PLOTS SHOW
NEARLY ZONAL FLOW ACROSS THE DESERT SOUTHWEST BEHIND THE EXITING
SYSTEM THAT IS CURRENTLY OVER THE NORTHERN ROCKIES/PLAINS STATES.
ANOTHER SYSTEM EXPECTED TO BRUSH THROUGH NORTHERN ARIZONA EARLY
WEDNESDAY...THEN SWING THROUGH THE EASTERN PART OF THE STATE LATE
WEDNESDAY OR EARLY THURSDAY...BUT NO PRECIPITATION WITH THAT
SYSTEM.

IR SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOW MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES ACROSS MUCH OF
ARIZONA...WITH A FEW CLOUDS JUST TO OUR SOUTH AND EAST.

AS OF 16Z (9 AM MST)...TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE REGION RANGED FROM
THE MID 60S TO 70 DEGS. THESE READINGS ARE AROUND 3 TO 6 DEGS COOLER
THAN THIS TIME YESTERDAY. WE ARE CONSIDERABLY DRIER VERSUS 24 HOURS
AGO...WITH DEWPOINT TEMPERATURES RANGING FROM THE UPPER 30S AT
SAFFORD TO THE LOWER 50S ALONG THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER. THESE
READINGS RANGE FROM 8 TO 18 DEGS COOLER THAN 24 HOURS AGO. IN
ADDITION...THIS MORNINGS KTWC 12Z SOUNDING SHOWED A PRECIPITABLE
WATER VALUE OF 0.48 INCHES...COMPARED TO 0.98 INCHES FROM YESTERDAY
MORNING. NEEDLESS TO SAY...THE MONSOON IS DEFINITELY OVER.

THE FORECAST FOR THIS AFTERNOON SEEMS TO BE ON TRACK...SO NO CHANGES
ARE PLANNED AT THIS TIME. FOR DETAILS REGARDING THE FORECAST BEYOND
TODAY...PLEASE REFER TO THE PREVIOUS DISCUSSION BELOW.

&&

AVIATION...VALID THRU 01/18Z.
EXPECT CLEAR SKIES INTO WEDNESDAY. SURFACE WIND EAST OF KTUS THIS
AFTERNOON WILL BE WLY/NWLY 10-15 KTS WITH GUSTS TO 20-25 KTS.
OTHERWISE...SURFACE WIND WILL BE MAINLY LESS THAN 10 KTS THRU
TONIGHT. AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR TAF AMENDMENTS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...DRY CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL INTO THIS WEEKEND.
DAYTIME MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITIES WILL LOWER THIS WEEK AS DRIER
AIR MOVES INTO THE REGION. 20-FOOT WINDS ACROSS GRAHAM...GREENLEE
AND COCHISE COUNTIES THIS AFTERNOON WILL BE WEST TO NORTHWEST AT
8-18 MPH. OTHERWISE...20-FOOT WINDS WILL BE LESS THAN 15 MPH THROUGH
THURSDAY. LOCALLY GUSTY EAST WINDS MAY OCCUR FRIDAY.

&&

.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...THE STORM TRACK WILL REMAIN NORTH OF THE
AREA...WITH A DRY WESTERLY FLOW BRINGING MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND
NORMAL DAYTIME TEMPERATURES. LATEST MODELS CONTINUED TO SHOW A RIDGE
OF HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT DEVELOPING OVER THE DESERT SOUTHWEST THURSDAY
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. THIS WILL RESULT IN CONTINUED CLEAR SKIES AND
SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL HIGH TEMPERATURES OVER THE WEEKEND INTO NEXT
WEEK. A TIGHT SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT WAS ALSO PROGGED TO DEVELOP
THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY...PRODUCING LOCALLY GUSTY EASTERLY WINDS.

&&

.TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.


&&

$$

VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...YOUTUBE...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/TUCSON







000
FXUS65 KFGZ 301557
AFDFGZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ
930 AM MST MON SEP 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...A FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL LINGER TODAY ACROSS
NORTHWEST ARIZONA...EXTREME NORTHERN ARIZONA...AND SOUTHERN APACHE
COUNTY. COOL DRY AIR WILL MOVE IN FROM THE WEST LATE THIS AFTERNOON.
EXPECT COOLER NIGHTS WITH NO PRECIPITATION FORECAST THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...A LARGE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM CUT-OFF FROM THE POLAR
FRONT JET WILL SLOWLY DRIFT ACROSS UTAH TODAY. A FEW SHOWERS WILL
LINGER ALONG THE UTAH BORDER REGION AND ACROSS NAVAJO AND APACHE
COUNTIES TODAY. OTHERWISE DRY CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH MUCH
OF THE UPCOMING WORK WEEK.

&&

.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...THE LARGE UPPER LEVEL CUT-OFF LOW HAS ONE
MORE DISTURBANCE ROTATING THROUGH THE BASE OF THE TROUGH THIS
MORNING...AND THEN THE SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO HEAD NORTHEAST DURING
THE DAY TODAY. THIS LAST DISTURBANCE IS CURRENTLY SENDING A BAND OF
CLOUDS AND SHOWERS ACROSS SOUTHERN NEVADA...WITH THIS ACTIVITY
FORECAST TO CROSS NORTHWEST AND NORTHERN ARIZONA FROM KIGM TO KGCN
TO K0V7 TO KFMN ACROSS NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE STATE THIS MORNING
AND EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. IN ADDITION...ENOUGH MID LEVEL MOISTURE
MAY BRING AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THE DECAYING
FRONTAL BOUNDARY EXTENDING FROM SOUTHERN APACHE COUNTY NORTHEAST
INTO NORTH CENTRAL NEW MEXICO.

THIS PASSAGE OF THIS SYSTEM WILL BRING A DRY...COOL...AND STABLE
AIRMASS INTO NORTHERN ARIZONA TO REMIND US THAT FALL WEATHER IS
HERE. EXPECT COLDER OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES AT SOME MOUNTAIN
LOCATIONS APPROACHING OR EXCEEDING FREEZING FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF
MORNINGS THROUGH WEDNESDAY. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL RUN 4-8 DEGREES
BELOW NORMAL.

THE LAST TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL PASS THROUGH THE NORTHERN
ROCKIES ON WEDNESDAY...THEN A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE IS FORECAST TO
BUILD INTO THE INTERMOUNTAIN STATES WITH WARMER AND DRY CONDITIONS
LASTING THROUGH NEXT MONDAY...10/6.

&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 18Z PACKAGE...AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVING
ACROSS FAR NRN AZ TODAY WILL BRING SCT-BKN CLOUD DECKS AT 6-10 KFT
AGL. ISOLATED -SHRA/-TSRA NORTH AND EAST OF A LINE FROM
KGCN-KOV7-KSOW THROUGH 00Z TUES...THEN CLEARING. AFTERNOON SFC WINDS
SW-W 10-20 KTS. AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDMENTS.

&&

.FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC.........BOHLIN/TC
AVIATION.......JJ

FOR NORTHERN ARIZONA WEATHER INFORMATION VISIT
WEATHER.GOV/FLAGSTAFF






000
FXUS65 KFGZ 301557
AFDFGZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ
930 AM MST MON SEP 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...A FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL LINGER TODAY ACROSS
NORTHWEST ARIZONA...EXTREME NORTHERN ARIZONA...AND SOUTHERN APACHE
COUNTY. COOL DRY AIR WILL MOVE IN FROM THE WEST LATE THIS AFTERNOON.
EXPECT COOLER NIGHTS WITH NO PRECIPITATION FORECAST THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...A LARGE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM CUT-OFF FROM THE POLAR
FRONT JET WILL SLOWLY DRIFT ACROSS UTAH TODAY. A FEW SHOWERS WILL
LINGER ALONG THE UTAH BORDER REGION AND ACROSS NAVAJO AND APACHE
COUNTIES TODAY. OTHERWISE DRY CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH MUCH
OF THE UPCOMING WORK WEEK.

&&

.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...THE LARGE UPPER LEVEL CUT-OFF LOW HAS ONE
MORE DISTURBANCE ROTATING THROUGH THE BASE OF THE TROUGH THIS
MORNING...AND THEN THE SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO HEAD NORTHEAST DURING
THE DAY TODAY. THIS LAST DISTURBANCE IS CURRENTLY SENDING A BAND OF
CLOUDS AND SHOWERS ACROSS SOUTHERN NEVADA...WITH THIS ACTIVITY
FORECAST TO CROSS NORTHWEST AND NORTHERN ARIZONA FROM KIGM TO KGCN
TO K0V7 TO KFMN ACROSS NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE STATE THIS MORNING
AND EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. IN ADDITION...ENOUGH MID LEVEL MOISTURE
MAY BRING AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THE DECAYING
FRONTAL BOUNDARY EXTENDING FROM SOUTHERN APACHE COUNTY NORTHEAST
INTO NORTH CENTRAL NEW MEXICO.

THIS PASSAGE OF THIS SYSTEM WILL BRING A DRY...COOL...AND STABLE
AIRMASS INTO NORTHERN ARIZONA TO REMIND US THAT FALL WEATHER IS
HERE. EXPECT COLDER OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES AT SOME MOUNTAIN
LOCATIONS APPROACHING OR EXCEEDING FREEZING FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF
MORNINGS THROUGH WEDNESDAY. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL RUN 4-8 DEGREES
BELOW NORMAL.

THE LAST TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL PASS THROUGH THE NORTHERN
ROCKIES ON WEDNESDAY...THEN A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE IS FORECAST TO
BUILD INTO THE INTERMOUNTAIN STATES WITH WARMER AND DRY CONDITIONS
LASTING THROUGH NEXT MONDAY...10/6.

&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 18Z PACKAGE...AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVING
ACROSS FAR NRN AZ TODAY WILL BRING SCT-BKN CLOUD DECKS AT 6-10 KFT
AGL. ISOLATED -SHRA/-TSRA NORTH AND EAST OF A LINE FROM
KGCN-KOV7-KSOW THROUGH 00Z TUES...THEN CLEARING. AFTERNOON SFC WINDS
SW-W 10-20 KTS. AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDMENTS.

&&

.FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC.........BOHLIN/TC
AVIATION.......JJ

FOR NORTHERN ARIZONA WEATHER INFORMATION VISIT
WEATHER.GOV/FLAGSTAFF







000
FXUS65 KPSR 301034
AFDPSR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PHOENIX AZ
335 AM MST TUE SEP 30 2014

.UPDATE...UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
DRY NORTHWEST FLOW WILL ESTABLISH ITSELF OVER THE AREA THIS
WEEK...KEEPING SKIES MOSTLY CLEAR AND RAINFALL CHANCES NIL.
TEMPERATURES WILL BEGIN THE WEEK SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL AND GRADUALLY
WARM THROUGH THE WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE STRENGTHENS OVER THE WEST.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
LARGE UPPER LOW RESPONSIBLE FOR THIS WEEKEND`S WEATHER EVENT ACROSS
THE SOUTHWEST STATES NOW IS CIRCULATING INTO THE PLAINS STATES...WITH
DRY NORTHWEST FLOW DRAPED ACROSS MUCH OF THE WESTERN CONUS THIS AM.
NEARLY CLOUDLESS SKIES OBSERVED ACROSS SOUTHEAST CA AND MUCH OF
AZ...SAVE FOR SOME MID-LEVEL STRATUS DECKS SKIRTING THE NORTHERN AZ
BORDER NEAR PAGE. GENERALLY LITTLE CHANGE NOTED ON AREA TEMPERATURES
THIS MORNING COMPARED TO MONDAY...WITH LOW 60S TO LOW 70S OBSERVED AT
MOST SITES. WHILE THE BROADER DEWPOINT TREND HAS BEEN DRIER THROUGH THIS
EARLY WEEK...OBSERVED VALUES HAVE WIDELY VARIED DURING THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS OVER MANY OF THE LOWER DESERT ELEVATIONS. EXPECT THIS TO
CONTINUE THE NEXT FEW MORNINGS AS SURFACE CONDITIONS STILL HOLD SOME
MOISTURE FROM RECENT RAINFALL AND TEMPERATURES HAVEN`T BEEN TOO WARM
TO HELP EVAPORATE THIS MOISTURE AWAY. WHERE THE MORNINGS WILL HAVE A
WIDE RANGE OF VALUES... AFTERNOON MIXING FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS SHOULD
DROP READINGS INTO THE UPPER 30S TO LOW 40S...POSSIBLY EVEN DRIER
OVER PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST CA.

DRY NORTHWEST FLOW WILL PERSIST THROUGH THURSDAY OVER MUCH OF THE
WEST...WITH ANOTHER SWIFT SHORTWAVE DISTURBANCE DROPPING OUT OF
BRITISH COLUMBIA CANADA AND INTO THE GREAT BASIN STATES LATE
WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY. 850MB TEMPERATURE PLOTS AND MSLP ANALYSIS
SHOW THE FRONT STALLING OVER NORTHERN AZ...WITH NORTH TO
NORTHEASTERLY FLOW FILTERING DOWN THE COLORADO RIVER VALLEY AND
THROUGH THE MOGOLLON RIM. NOTICEABLY BREEZY CONDITIONS WILL DEVELOP
ALONG THE COLORADO RIVER OF 10 TO 15 MPH WITH SOME PERIODS OF
ENHANCED GUSTINESS POSSIBLE THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY. WITH LOWERED
SHORTWAVE HEIGHTS TO THE NORTH/NORTHEAST OF PHOENIX...NEAR OR JUST
BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES (LOW 90S) WILL HOLD THROUGH THURSDAY. THE
WESTERN FORECAST AREA BEING JUST OUT OF RANGE OF THE THERMAL PROFILE
OF THE FRONT WILL SEE SLIGHTLY WARMER CONDITIONS IN THE MID TO UPPER
90S.

PACIFIC RIDGING WILL QUICKLY BUILD INTO THE SOUTHWEST DESERTS
BEGINNING EARLY FRIDAY. TEMPERATURES UNDER THIS PATTERN LOOK TO PEAK
ON SATURDAY WITH THE WARMER WESTERN DESERTS IN THE 100-105F RANGE AND
94-99F FOR THE LOWER AZ DESERTS WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT
WINDS. BY THE SUNDAY-MONDAY PERIOD...THE UPPER RIDGE CIRCULATION
CENTER WILL TRANSITION TO OUR EAST/SOUTHEAST AS BROAD
TROUGHING/SHORTWAVE ENERGY FROM OVER THE GREAT LAKES EXPANDS BACK
INTO THE CENTRAL PORTIONS OF THE COUNTRY AND ANOTHER AREA OF WEAK
TROUGHING/LOWER HEIGHT ANOMALY MOVES IN ALONG 30N IN THE EASTERN
PACIFIC.

ACTIVITY FROM THE EASTERN PACIFIC TROPICS COULD PLAY A ROLE IN THE
EXTENDED PERIOD BY THE MIDDLE PART OF NEXT WEEK. LATEST NHC FORECAST
HAS AN AREA WELL SOUTH OF ACAPULCO, MEXICO PROGGED FOR TROPICAL
CYCLONE FORMATION AT 90 PERCENT WITHIN THE NEXT 5 DAYS. BOTH THE GFS
AND ECMWF PICK UP ON THE POTENTIAL TROPICAL SYSTEM...THE NEXT NAME ON
THE CYCLONE LIST IS SIMON...AS IT MOVES FURTHER INTO THE PACIFIC
WATERS AND EVENTUALLY TURNING NORTHWESTWARD. WHILE IT IS FAR TOO
EARLY TO HANG A HAT ON ANY ONE MODEL SOLUTION...STORM PATH OR STORM
EVOLUTION...THE REPOSITIONING OF THE UPPER RIDGE TO OUR
EAST/SOUTHEAST COULD TRANSPORT SOME ELEVATED MOISTURE FIELDS THAT
WORK UP THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA BACK INTO NORTHERN MEXICO AND THE
SOUTHWEST STATES. WITH UPPER RIDGE HEIGHTS REMOVED FROM THE AREA
DURING THIS PERIOD...TEMPERATURES WILL SCALE BACK TO MORE NORMAL
READINGS AND POSSIBLY COOLER IF ELEVATED DEWPOINTS AND HUMIDITIES
MAKE SOME SORT OF A COMEBACK.

&&

.AVIATION...
SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA INCLUDING KPHX...KIWA...AND KSDL...AND
SOUTHWEST ARIZONA AND SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA INCLUDING KIPL AND KBLH...

LIGHT DIURNAL WINDS AND MAINLY CLEAR SKIES WILL PREDOMINATE AT ALL
TAF SITES THROUGH WEDNESDAY. NO AVIATION WEATHER IMPACTS ANTICIPATED.

AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDED TAFS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY...
WITH VIRTUALLY NO CHANCE OF RAINFALL THROUGH THE
PERIOD...TEMPERATURES WILL BE MAINTAINED IN A SLIGHTLY ABOVE AVERAGE
CATEGORY. MINIMUM HUMIDITY LEVELS WILL REMAIN RELATIVELY STEADY
THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD...DROPPING INTO THE TEENS ACROSS LOWER
ELEVATIONS. OVERNIGHT RECOVERY WILL BE GOOD. WINDS WILL BE
UNSEASONABLY LIGHT WITH OCCASIONAL AFTERNOON BREEZINESS IN UPSLOPE
AREAS.

&&

.PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

AZ...NONE.

CA...NONE.

&&

$$

VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/PHOENIX

DISCUSSION...NOLTE
AVIATION...HIRSCH
FIRE WEATHER...MO






000
FXUS65 KPSR 301007
AFDPSR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PHOENIX AZ
307 AM MST TUE SEP 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
DRY NORTHWEST FLOW WILL ESTABLISH ITSELF OVER THE AREA THIS
WEEK...KEEPING SKIES MOSTLY CLEAR AND RAINFALL CHANCES NIL.
TEMPERATURES WILL BEGIN THE WEEK SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL AND GRADUALLY
WARM THROUGH THE WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE STRENGTHENS OVER THE WEST.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
LARGE UPPER LOW RESPONSIBLE FOR THIS WEEKEND`S WEATHER EVENT ACROSS
THE SOUTHWEST STATES NOW IS CIRCULATING INTO THE PLAINS STATES...WITH
DRY NORTHWEST FLOW DRAPED ACROSS MUCH OF THE WESTERN CONUS THIS AM.
NEARLY CLOUDLESS SKIES OBSERVED ACROSS SOUTHEAST CA AND MUCH OF
AZ...SAVE FOR SOME MID-LEVEL STRATUS DECKS SKIRTING THE NORTHERN AZ
BORDER NEAR PAGE. GENERALLY LITTLE CHANGE NOTED ON AREA TEMPERATURES
THIS MORNING COMPARED TO MONDAY...WITH LOW 60S TO LOW 70S OBSERVED AT
MOST SITES. WHILE THE BROADER DEWPOINT TREND HAS BEEN DRIER THROUGH THIS
EARLY WEEK...OBSERVED VALUES HAVE WIDELY VARIED DURING THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS OVER MANY OF THE LOWER DESERT ELEVATIONS. EXPECT THIS TO
CONTINUE THE NEXT FEW MORNINGS AS SURFACE CONDITIONS STILL HOLD SOME
MOISTURE FROM RECENT RAINFALL AND TEMPERATURES HAVEN`T BEEN TOO WARM
TO HELP EVAPORATE THIS MOISTURE AWAY. WHERE THE MORNINGS WILL HAVE A
WIDE RANGE OF VALUES... AFTERNOON MIXING FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS SHOULD
DROP READINGS INTO THE UPPER 30S TO LOW 40S...POSSIBLY EVEN DRIER
OVER PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST CA.

DRY NORTHWEST FLOW WILL PERSIST THROUGH THURSDAY OVER MUCH OF THE
WEST...WITH ANOTHER SWIFT SHORTWAVE DISTURBANCE DROPPING OUT OF
BRITISH COLUMBIA CANADA AND INTO THE GREAT BASIN STATES LATE
WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY. 850MB TEMPERATURE PLOTS AND MSLP ANALYSIS
SHOW THE FRONT STALLING OVER NORTHERN AZ...WITH NORTH TO
NORTHEASTERLY FLOW FILTERING DOWN THE COLORADO RIVER VALLEY AND
THROUGH THE MOGOLLON RIM. NOTICEABLY BREEZY CONDITIONS WILL DEVELOP
ALONG THE COLORADO RIVER OF 10 TO 15 MPH WITH SOME PERIODS OF
ENHANCED GUSTINESS POSSIBLE THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY. WITH LOWERED
SHORTWAVE HEIGHTS TO THE NORTH/NORTHEAST OF PHOENIX...NEAR OR JUST
BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES (LOW 90S) WILL HOLD THROUGH THURSDAY. THE
WESTERN FORECAST AREA BEING JUST OUT OF RANGE OF THE THERMAL PROFILE
OF THE FRONT WILL SEE SLIGHTLY WARMER CONDITIONS IN THE MID TO UPPER
90S.

PACIFIC RIDGING WILL QUICKLY BUILD INTO THE SOUTHWEST DESERTS
BEGINNING EARLY FRIDAY. TEMPERATURES UNDER THIS PATTERN LOOK TO PEAK
ON SATURDAY WITH THE WARMER WESTERN DESERTS IN THE 100-105F RANGE AND
94-99F FOR THE LOWER AZ DESERTS WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT
WINDS. BY THE SUNDAY-MONDAY PERIOD...THE UPPER RIDGE CIRCULATION
CENTER WILL TRANSITION TO OUR EAST/SOUTHEAST AS BROAD
TROUGHING/SHORTWAVE ENERGY FROM OVER THE GREAT LAKES EXPANDS BACK
INTO THE CENTRAL PORTIONS OF THE COUNTRY AND ANOTHER AREA OF WEAK
TROUGHING/LOWER HEIGHT ANOMALY MOVES IN ALONG 30N IN THE EASTERN
PACIFIC.

ACTIVITY FROM THE EASTERN PACIFIC TROPICS COULD PLAY A ROLE IN THE
EXTENDED PERIOD BY THE MIDDLE PART OF NEXT WEEK. LATEST NHC FORECAST
HAS AN AREA WELL SOUTH OF ACAPULCO, MEXICO PROGGED FOR TROPICAL
CYCLONE FORMATION AT 90 PERCENT WITHIN THE NEXT 5 DAYS. BOTH THE GFS
AND ECMWF PICK UP ON THE POTENTIAL TROPICAL SYSTEM...THE NEXT NAME ON
THE CYCLONE LIST IS SIMON...AS IT MOVES FURTHER INTO THE PACIFIC
WATERS AND EVENTUALLY TURNING NORTHWESTWARD. WHILE IT IS FAR TOO
EARLY TO HANG A HAT ON ANY ONE MODEL SOLUTION...STORM PATH OR STORM
EVOLUTION...THE REPOSITIONING OF THE UPPER RIDGE TO OUR
EAST/SOUTHEAST COULD TRANSPORT SOME ELEVATED MOISTURE FIELDS THAT
WORK UP THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA BACK INTO NORTHERN MEXICO AND THE
SOUTHWEST STATES. WITH UPPER RIDGE HEIGHTS REMOVED FROM THE AREA
DURING THIS PERIOD...TEMPERATURES WILL SCALE BACK TO MORE NORMAL
READINGS AND POSSIBLY COOLER IF ELEVATED DEWPOINTS AND HUMIDITIES
MAKE SOME SORT OF A COMEBACK.

&&

.AVIATION...
SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA INCLUDING KPHX...KIWA...AND KSDL...AND
SOUTHWEST ARIZONA AND SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA INCLUDING KIPL AND KBLH...

VERY WEAK LOW/MID LEVEL GRADIENTS AND CLEAR SKIES WILL LEAD TO VERY
LIGHT AND SOMEWHAT DIURNAL WINDS ACROSS THE DESERTS OVER THE NEXT 24
HOURS. WINDS AT THE TAF SITES WILL OFTEN BE LIGHT/VARIABLE AOB 5KT.
CLEAR SKIES TONIGHT SHOULD HELP TO SET UP FAVORABLE DRAINAGE
CONDITIONS AND CONTRIBUTE TO WINDS TURNING BACK TOWARDS THE EAST OR
SOUTHEAST AT KPHX AND KIWA AFTER 06Z...BUT SPEEDS WILL BE LIGHT.

NO AVIATION ISSUES AT ANY TERMINAL THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING AT LEAST.

AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDED TAFS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY...
WITH VIRTUALLY NO CHANCE OF RAINFALL THROUGH THE
PERIOD...TEMPERATURES WILL BE MAINTAINED IN A SLIGHTLY ABOVE AVERAGE
CATEGORY. MINIMUM HUMIDITY LEVELS WILL REMAIN RELATIVELY STEADY
THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD...DROPPING INTO THE TEENS ACROSS LOWER
ELEVATIONS. OVERNIGHT RECOVERY WILL BE GOOD. WINDS WILL BE
UNSEASONABLY LIGHT WITH OCCASIONAL AFTERNOON BREEZINESS IN UPSLOPE
AREAS.

&&

.PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

AZ...NONE.

CA...NONE.

&&

$$

VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/PHOENIX

DISCUSSION...NOLTE
AVIATION...CB
FIRE WEATHER...MO





000
FXUS65 KPSR 301007
AFDPSR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PHOENIX AZ
307 AM MST TUE SEP 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
DRY NORTHWEST FLOW WILL ESTABLISH ITSELF OVER THE AREA THIS
WEEK...KEEPING SKIES MOSTLY CLEAR AND RAINFALL CHANCES NIL.
TEMPERATURES WILL BEGIN THE WEEK SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL AND GRADUALLY
WARM THROUGH THE WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE STRENGTHENS OVER THE WEST.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
LARGE UPPER LOW RESPONSIBLE FOR THIS WEEKEND`S WEATHER EVENT ACROSS
THE SOUTHWEST STATES NOW IS CIRCULATING INTO THE PLAINS STATES...WITH
DRY NORTHWEST FLOW DRAPED ACROSS MUCH OF THE WESTERN CONUS THIS AM.
NEARLY CLOUDLESS SKIES OBSERVED ACROSS SOUTHEAST CA AND MUCH OF
AZ...SAVE FOR SOME MID-LEVEL STRATUS DECKS SKIRTING THE NORTHERN AZ
BORDER NEAR PAGE. GENERALLY LITTLE CHANGE NOTED ON AREA TEMPERATURES
THIS MORNING COMPARED TO MONDAY...WITH LOW 60S TO LOW 70S OBSERVED AT
MOST SITES. WHILE THE BROADER DEWPOINT TREND HAS BEEN DRIER THROUGH THIS
EARLY WEEK...OBSERVED VALUES HAVE WIDELY VARIED DURING THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS OVER MANY OF THE LOWER DESERT ELEVATIONS. EXPECT THIS TO
CONTINUE THE NEXT FEW MORNINGS AS SURFACE CONDITIONS STILL HOLD SOME
MOISTURE FROM RECENT RAINFALL AND TEMPERATURES HAVEN`T BEEN TOO WARM
TO HELP EVAPORATE THIS MOISTURE AWAY. WHERE THE MORNINGS WILL HAVE A
WIDE RANGE OF VALUES... AFTERNOON MIXING FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS SHOULD
DROP READINGS INTO THE UPPER 30S TO LOW 40S...POSSIBLY EVEN DRIER
OVER PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST CA.

DRY NORTHWEST FLOW WILL PERSIST THROUGH THURSDAY OVER MUCH OF THE
WEST...WITH ANOTHER SWIFT SHORTWAVE DISTURBANCE DROPPING OUT OF
BRITISH COLUMBIA CANADA AND INTO THE GREAT BASIN STATES LATE
WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY. 850MB TEMPERATURE PLOTS AND MSLP ANALYSIS
SHOW THE FRONT STALLING OVER NORTHERN AZ...WITH NORTH TO
NORTHEASTERLY FLOW FILTERING DOWN THE COLORADO RIVER VALLEY AND
THROUGH THE MOGOLLON RIM. NOTICEABLY BREEZY CONDITIONS WILL DEVELOP
ALONG THE COLORADO RIVER OF 10 TO 15 MPH WITH SOME PERIODS OF
ENHANCED GUSTINESS POSSIBLE THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY. WITH LOWERED
SHORTWAVE HEIGHTS TO THE NORTH/NORTHEAST OF PHOENIX...NEAR OR JUST
BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES (LOW 90S) WILL HOLD THROUGH THURSDAY. THE
WESTERN FORECAST AREA BEING JUST OUT OF RANGE OF THE THERMAL PROFILE
OF THE FRONT WILL SEE SLIGHTLY WARMER CONDITIONS IN THE MID TO UPPER
90S.

PACIFIC RIDGING WILL QUICKLY BUILD INTO THE SOUTHWEST DESERTS
BEGINNING EARLY FRIDAY. TEMPERATURES UNDER THIS PATTERN LOOK TO PEAK
ON SATURDAY WITH THE WARMER WESTERN DESERTS IN THE 100-105F RANGE AND
94-99F FOR THE LOWER AZ DESERTS WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT
WINDS. BY THE SUNDAY-MONDAY PERIOD...THE UPPER RIDGE CIRCULATION
CENTER WILL TRANSITION TO OUR EAST/SOUTHEAST AS BROAD
TROUGHING/SHORTWAVE ENERGY FROM OVER THE GREAT LAKES EXPANDS BACK
INTO THE CENTRAL PORTIONS OF THE COUNTRY AND ANOTHER AREA OF WEAK
TROUGHING/LOWER HEIGHT ANOMALY MOVES IN ALONG 30N IN THE EASTERN
PACIFIC.

ACTIVITY FROM THE EASTERN PACIFIC TROPICS COULD PLAY A ROLE IN THE
EXTENDED PERIOD BY THE MIDDLE PART OF NEXT WEEK. LATEST NHC FORECAST
HAS AN AREA WELL SOUTH OF ACAPULCO, MEXICO PROGGED FOR TROPICAL
CYCLONE FORMATION AT 90 PERCENT WITHIN THE NEXT 5 DAYS. BOTH THE GFS
AND ECMWF PICK UP ON THE POTENTIAL TROPICAL SYSTEM...THE NEXT NAME ON
THE CYCLONE LIST IS SIMON...AS IT MOVES FURTHER INTO THE PACIFIC
WATERS AND EVENTUALLY TURNING NORTHWESTWARD. WHILE IT IS FAR TOO
EARLY TO HANG A HAT ON ANY ONE MODEL SOLUTION...STORM PATH OR STORM
EVOLUTION...THE REPOSITIONING OF THE UPPER RIDGE TO OUR
EAST/SOUTHEAST COULD TRANSPORT SOME ELEVATED MOISTURE FIELDS THAT
WORK UP THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA BACK INTO NORTHERN MEXICO AND THE
SOUTHWEST STATES. WITH UPPER RIDGE HEIGHTS REMOVED FROM THE AREA
DURING THIS PERIOD...TEMPERATURES WILL SCALE BACK TO MORE NORMAL
READINGS AND POSSIBLY COOLER IF ELEVATED DEWPOINTS AND HUMIDITIES
MAKE SOME SORT OF A COMEBACK.

&&

.AVIATION...
SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA INCLUDING KPHX...KIWA...AND KSDL...AND
SOUTHWEST ARIZONA AND SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA INCLUDING KIPL AND KBLH...

VERY WEAK LOW/MID LEVEL GRADIENTS AND CLEAR SKIES WILL LEAD TO VERY
LIGHT AND SOMEWHAT DIURNAL WINDS ACROSS THE DESERTS OVER THE NEXT 24
HOURS. WINDS AT THE TAF SITES WILL OFTEN BE LIGHT/VARIABLE AOB 5KT.
CLEAR SKIES TONIGHT SHOULD HELP TO SET UP FAVORABLE DRAINAGE
CONDITIONS AND CONTRIBUTE TO WINDS TURNING BACK TOWARDS THE EAST OR
SOUTHEAST AT KPHX AND KIWA AFTER 06Z...BUT SPEEDS WILL BE LIGHT.

NO AVIATION ISSUES AT ANY TERMINAL THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING AT LEAST.

AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDED TAFS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY...
WITH VIRTUALLY NO CHANCE OF RAINFALL THROUGH THE
PERIOD...TEMPERATURES WILL BE MAINTAINED IN A SLIGHTLY ABOVE AVERAGE
CATEGORY. MINIMUM HUMIDITY LEVELS WILL REMAIN RELATIVELY STEADY
THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD...DROPPING INTO THE TEENS ACROSS LOWER
ELEVATIONS. OVERNIGHT RECOVERY WILL BE GOOD. WINDS WILL BE
UNSEASONABLY LIGHT WITH OCCASIONAL AFTERNOON BREEZINESS IN UPSLOPE
AREAS.

&&

.PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

AZ...NONE.

CA...NONE.

&&

$$

VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/PHOENIX

DISCUSSION...NOLTE
AVIATION...CB
FIRE WEATHER...MO






000
FXUS65 KFGZ 300952
AFDFGZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ
250 AM MST TUE OCT 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
COOL DRY AIR HAS MOVED INTO ARIZONA BEHIND THE DEPARTING LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM TO OUR NORTHEAST. EXPECT COOLER NIGHTS WITH
LITTLE PRECIPITATION FORECAST THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK. A
WEAK TROUGH WILL BRUSH THROUGH UTAH ON WEDNESDAY WITH HIGHER CLOUD
COVER AND SLIGHT CHANCES FOR LIGHT SHOWERS OVER THE UTAH ARIZONA
BORDER REGION. THE PACIFIC RIDGE WILL BUILD INTO ARIZONA ON FRIDAY
WITH WARMER HIGH TEMPERATURES FORECAST THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEKEND.
&&

.DISCUSSION...
A COOL AND DRY NORTHWEST FLOW WILL BRING MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES...BELOW
NORMAL DAY TIME HIGHS AND POCKETS OF OVERNIGHT FREEZING TEMPERATURES
THROUGH THURSDAY. A WEAK TROUGH IS FORECAST TO MOVE THROUGH UTAH
AND EXTREME NORTHERN ARIZONA ON WEDNESDAY BRINGING SOME CLOUDS AND
SLIGHT CHANCES OF SHOWERS OVER THE UTAH ARIZONA BORDER REGION.

AS THE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURES BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST ON
THURSDAY...A LIGHT NORTHEAST FLOW IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP...KEEPING
HIGH TEMPERATURES BELOW NORMAL.

FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...THE PACIFIC RIDGE WILL BUILD INTO THE
SOUTHWEST BRINGING OUR HIGH TEMPERATURES BACK TO NORMAL SEASONAL
VALUES FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. SUNNY SKIES AND FAIR WEATHER WILL BE
THE HIGHLIGHT FOR THIS WEEKEND.

MONDAY AND TUESDAY OF NEXT WEEK...THE DRY CONDITIONS MAY CONTINUE...
THERE IS A LOW THREAT THAT SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE MAY COME NORTH INTO
SOUTHERN ARIZONA A HEAD OF AN APPROACHING PACIFIC LOW PRESSURE
TROUGH. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN CLOSE TO SEASONAL VALUES.
&&

.AVIATION...
FOR THE 12Z PACKAGE...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST FOR THE NEXT 24
HOURS WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES. SW-W WINDS 10-20KT THIS AFTERNOON.
AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDMENTS.
&&

.FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC.........TC
AVIATION.......DL

FOR NORTHERN ARIZONA WEATHER INFORMATION VISIT
WEATHER.GOV/FLAGSTAFF








000
FXUS65 KTWC 300927
AFDTWC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ
227 AM MST TUE SEP 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...DRY CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL INTO THIS WEEKEND. A GRADUAL
WARMING TREND WILL OCCUR ESPECIALLY DURING THE LATTER PART OF THE
WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT BUILDS OVER THE AREA.

&&

.DISCUSSION...THE STORM TRACK WILL REMAIN NORTH OF THE AREA...WITH A
DRY WESTERLY FLOW BRINGING MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND NORMAL DAYTIME
TEMPERATURES. LATEST MODELS CONTINUED TO SHOW A RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE ALOFT DEVELOPING OVER THE DESERT SOUTHWEST THURSDAY INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK. THIS WILL RESULT IN MORE CLEAR SKIES AND SLIGHTLY
ABOVE NORMAL HIGH TEMPERATURES OVER THE WEEKEND INTO NEXT WEEK. A
TIGHT SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT WAS ALSO PROGGED TO DEVELOP THURSDAY
NIGHT AND FRIDAY...PRODUCING LOCALLY GUSTY EASTERLY WINDS.

&&

AVIATION...VALID THRU 01/12Z.
EXPECT CLEAR SKIES INTO WEDNESDAY. SURFACE WIND EAST OF KTUS THIS
AFTERNOON WILL BE WLY/NWLY 10-15 KTS WITH GUSTS TO 20-25 KTS.
OTHERWISE...SURFACE WIND WILL BE MAINLY LESS THAN 10 KTS THRU
TONIGHT. AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR TAF AMENDMENTS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...DRY CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL INTO THIS WEEKEND.
DAYTIME MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITIES WILL LOWER THIS WEEK AS DRIER
AIR MOVES INTO THE REGION...ALTHOUGH GOOD OVERNIGHT RECOVERIES ARE
STILL EXPECTED. 20-FOOT WINDS ACROSS GRAHAM...GREENLEE AND COCHISE
COUNTIES THIS AFTERNOON WILL BE WEST TO NORTHWEST AT 8-18 MPH.
OTHERWISE...20-FOOT WINDS WILL BE LESS THAN 15 MPH THROUGH THURSDAY.
LOCALLY GUSTY EAST WINDS MAY OCCUR FRIDAY.

&&

.TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.


&&

$$

VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...YOUTUBE...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/TUCSON







000
FXUS65 KTWC 300927
AFDTWC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ
227 AM MST TUE SEP 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...DRY CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL INTO THIS WEEKEND. A GRADUAL
WARMING TREND WILL OCCUR ESPECIALLY DURING THE LATTER PART OF THE
WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT BUILDS OVER THE AREA.

&&

.DISCUSSION...THE STORM TRACK WILL REMAIN NORTH OF THE AREA...WITH A
DRY WESTERLY FLOW BRINGING MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND NORMAL DAYTIME
TEMPERATURES. LATEST MODELS CONTINUED TO SHOW A RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE ALOFT DEVELOPING OVER THE DESERT SOUTHWEST THURSDAY INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK. THIS WILL RESULT IN MORE CLEAR SKIES AND SLIGHTLY
ABOVE NORMAL HIGH TEMPERATURES OVER THE WEEKEND INTO NEXT WEEK. A
TIGHT SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT WAS ALSO PROGGED TO DEVELOP THURSDAY
NIGHT AND FRIDAY...PRODUCING LOCALLY GUSTY EASTERLY WINDS.

&&

AVIATION...VALID THRU 01/12Z.
EXPECT CLEAR SKIES INTO WEDNESDAY. SURFACE WIND EAST OF KTUS THIS
AFTERNOON WILL BE WLY/NWLY 10-15 KTS WITH GUSTS TO 20-25 KTS.
OTHERWISE...SURFACE WIND WILL BE MAINLY LESS THAN 10 KTS THRU
TONIGHT. AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR TAF AMENDMENTS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...DRY CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL INTO THIS WEEKEND.
DAYTIME MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITIES WILL LOWER THIS WEEK AS DRIER
AIR MOVES INTO THE REGION...ALTHOUGH GOOD OVERNIGHT RECOVERIES ARE
STILL EXPECTED. 20-FOOT WINDS ACROSS GRAHAM...GREENLEE AND COCHISE
COUNTIES THIS AFTERNOON WILL BE WEST TO NORTHWEST AT 8-18 MPH.
OTHERWISE...20-FOOT WINDS WILL BE LESS THAN 15 MPH THROUGH THURSDAY.
LOCALLY GUSTY EAST WINDS MAY OCCUR FRIDAY.

&&

.TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.


&&

$$

VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...YOUTUBE...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/TUCSON







000
FXUS65 KTWC 300927
AFDTWC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ
227 AM MST TUE SEP 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...DRY CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL INTO THIS WEEKEND. A GRADUAL
WARMING TREND WILL OCCUR ESPECIALLY DURING THE LATTER PART OF THE
WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT BUILDS OVER THE AREA.

&&

.DISCUSSION...THE STORM TRACK WILL REMAIN NORTH OF THE AREA...WITH A
DRY WESTERLY FLOW BRINGING MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND NORMAL DAYTIME
TEMPERATURES. LATEST MODELS CONTINUED TO SHOW A RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE ALOFT DEVELOPING OVER THE DESERT SOUTHWEST THURSDAY INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK. THIS WILL RESULT IN MORE CLEAR SKIES AND SLIGHTLY
ABOVE NORMAL HIGH TEMPERATURES OVER THE WEEKEND INTO NEXT WEEK. A
TIGHT SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT WAS ALSO PROGGED TO DEVELOP THURSDAY
NIGHT AND FRIDAY...PRODUCING LOCALLY GUSTY EASTERLY WINDS.

&&

AVIATION...VALID THRU 01/12Z.
EXPECT CLEAR SKIES INTO WEDNESDAY. SURFACE WIND EAST OF KTUS THIS
AFTERNOON WILL BE WLY/NWLY 10-15 KTS WITH GUSTS TO 20-25 KTS.
OTHERWISE...SURFACE WIND WILL BE MAINLY LESS THAN 10 KTS THRU
TONIGHT. AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR TAF AMENDMENTS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...DRY CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL INTO THIS WEEKEND.
DAYTIME MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITIES WILL LOWER THIS WEEK AS DRIER
AIR MOVES INTO THE REGION...ALTHOUGH GOOD OVERNIGHT RECOVERIES ARE
STILL EXPECTED. 20-FOOT WINDS ACROSS GRAHAM...GREENLEE AND COCHISE
COUNTIES THIS AFTERNOON WILL BE WEST TO NORTHWEST AT 8-18 MPH.
OTHERWISE...20-FOOT WINDS WILL BE LESS THAN 15 MPH THROUGH THURSDAY.
LOCALLY GUSTY EAST WINDS MAY OCCUR FRIDAY.

&&

.TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.


&&

$$

VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...YOUTUBE...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/TUCSON







000
FXUS65 KTWC 300927
AFDTWC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ
227 AM MST TUE SEP 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...DRY CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL INTO THIS WEEKEND. A GRADUAL
WARMING TREND WILL OCCUR ESPECIALLY DURING THE LATTER PART OF THE
WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT BUILDS OVER THE AREA.

&&

.DISCUSSION...THE STORM TRACK WILL REMAIN NORTH OF THE AREA...WITH A
DRY WESTERLY FLOW BRINGING MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND NORMAL DAYTIME
TEMPERATURES. LATEST MODELS CONTINUED TO SHOW A RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE ALOFT DEVELOPING OVER THE DESERT SOUTHWEST THURSDAY INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK. THIS WILL RESULT IN MORE CLEAR SKIES AND SLIGHTLY
ABOVE NORMAL HIGH TEMPERATURES OVER THE WEEKEND INTO NEXT WEEK. A
TIGHT SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT WAS ALSO PROGGED TO DEVELOP THURSDAY
NIGHT AND FRIDAY...PRODUCING LOCALLY GUSTY EASTERLY WINDS.

&&

AVIATION...VALID THRU 01/12Z.
EXPECT CLEAR SKIES INTO WEDNESDAY. SURFACE WIND EAST OF KTUS THIS
AFTERNOON WILL BE WLY/NWLY 10-15 KTS WITH GUSTS TO 20-25 KTS.
OTHERWISE...SURFACE WIND WILL BE MAINLY LESS THAN 10 KTS THRU
TONIGHT. AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR TAF AMENDMENTS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...DRY CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL INTO THIS WEEKEND.
DAYTIME MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITIES WILL LOWER THIS WEEK AS DRIER
AIR MOVES INTO THE REGION...ALTHOUGH GOOD OVERNIGHT RECOVERIES ARE
STILL EXPECTED. 20-FOOT WINDS ACROSS GRAHAM...GREENLEE AND COCHISE
COUNTIES THIS AFTERNOON WILL BE WEST TO NORTHWEST AT 8-18 MPH.
OTHERWISE...20-FOOT WINDS WILL BE LESS THAN 15 MPH THROUGH THURSDAY.
LOCALLY GUSTY EAST WINDS MAY OCCUR FRIDAY.

&&

.TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.


&&

$$

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000
FXUS65 KPSR 300354
AFDPSR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PHOENIX AZ
855 PM MST MON SEP 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
DRY NORTHWEST FLOW WILL ESTABLISH ITSELF OVER THE AREA THIS
WEEK...KEEPING SKIES MOSTLY CLEAR AND RAINFALL CHANCES NIL.
TEMPERATURES WILL BEGIN THE WEEK SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL AND GRADUALLY
WARM THROUGH THE WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE STRENGTHENS OVER THE WEST.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
UPPER LOW CONTINUED TO PUSH OFF TOWARDS THE EAST AND PASS BY TO OUR
NORTH EARLY THIS EVENING...AND USHER IN DRIER WESTERLY FLOW TO THE
LOWER DESERTS IN THE PROCESS. PWAT VALUES DOWN TO JUST 0.61 INCHES
AT TUS PER THE 00Z SOUNDING. SURFACE DEWPOINTS CONTINUED TO FALL
THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING AND MOSTLY RANGED FROM THE UPPER 30S TO MID
40S AT 8 PM. IR IMAGERY SHOWED CLEAR SKIES ACROSS THE AREA THIS
EVENING. EXPECT GENLY CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT MOSTLY DIURNAL WINDS FOR
THE REST OF TONIGHT. NO UPDATES NEEDED.

.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
A DEEP UPPER LOW CONTINUES TO SPIN OVER THE GREAT BASIN...ONLY
GRADUALLY TRANSLATING EASTWARD WITH ONE NOTABLE PV ANOMALY
PROPAGATING INTO THE FOUR CORNERS AREA. ASSOCIATED WITH THIS
NEGATIVE PV ANOMALY WAS A H5 -16C COLD CORE AND STRONGLY DIFLUENT
JET SIGNATURE FORCING DEEP CONVECTION ACROSS NORTHERN NEW MEXICO AND
COLORADO. LOCALLY...STRONG SUBSIDENT NORTHWEST FLOW BEHIND THE WAVE
WAS RAPIDLY ENVELOPING THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA YIELDING CLEAR SKIES
AND DEEPER MIXING OF DRY AIR THROUGHOUT THE BOUNDARY LAYER. DESPITE
SOME NEAR SFC MOISTENING OVERNIGHT DUE TO WET GROUND AND
DECOUPLING...OVERNIGHT LOWS TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY MORNING APPEAR
VERY SIMILAR (NEAR PERSISTENCE) TO THE PLEASANT CONDITIONS
EXPERIENCED THIS MORNING.

THE AFOREMENTIONED UPPER LOW WILL EJECT INTO THE CNTRL/NRN PLAINS
TUESDAY...ALTHOUGH PREVAILING WEAKNESS IN THE HEIGHT FIELDS ALOFT
WILL ALLOW FOR PROGRESSIVE NORTHEAST PACIFIC SHORTWAVE ENERGY TO
DESCEND TOWARDS THE SWRN CONUS REINFORCING MODEST H5 HEIGHTS AND
WEAK CAA IN THE H8-H5 LAYER. UPSTREAM HIGHER AMPLITUDE FLOW WILL
PROMOTE SFC PRESSURE RISES THROUGHOUT THE GREAT BASIN...THOUGH MODEL
THETA-E FORECASTS SUGGEST THE LOW LEVEL COLD FRONTAL PUSH WILL STALL
OVER NRN ARIZONA. THUS...TEMPERATURE FORECASTS DEPICT ONLY A VERY
SLOW WARMING TREND...SCALING BACK SOMEWHAT ON TYPICALLY BEST
PERFORMING GUIDANCE TOWARDS HISTORICAL BIASES OF MODELS TYPICALLY
WARMING TOO FAST FOLLOWING THE FIRST AIRMASS CHANGE OF THE AUTUMN
SEASON.

BY FRIDAY...RIDGING OFF THE PACIFIC WILL TRANSITION OVER THE WESTERN
CONUS WITH 1000-500MB THICKNESSES PEAKING IN THE LOW 580DM RANGE AND
850MB TEMPS CLIMBING NEAR 24C FOR THE AFTERNOONS THROUGH THE EARLY
WEEKEND. 100F DEGREE READINGS WILL PERSIST OUT WEST AND POSSIBLY
MAKING A RETURN OVER THE SOUTH-CENTRAL AZ DESERTS. OVER THE LAST
NORMAL PERIOD (1981-2010) THE AVERAGE LAST DAY WE`VE SEEN 100F IN
PHOENIX FALLS ON OCT 3RD...AND OCT 5TH FOR YUMA. WHERE THE AFTERNOONS
MAY SEEM WARM TO SOME...THE MORNINGS WILL BE MILD AND CLOSER TOWARD
NORMAL READINGS. BY THE LATE WEEKEND/EARLY NEXT WEEK...RIDGE HEIGHTS
LOOK TO LOWER AND FLATTEN AS THE ACTIVE STORM PATTERN OVER THE
NORTHERN PACIFIC APPROACHES WESTERN NORTH AMERICA. OUTSIDE OF SOME
SLIGHT COOLING POTENTIAL FOR TEMPERATURES...CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY
REMAIN DRY WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT DIURNALLY DRIVEN WINDS.

&&

.AVIATION...
SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA INCLUDING KPHX...KIWA...AND KSDL...AND
SOUTHWEST ARIZONA AND SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA INCLUDING KIPL AND KBLH...

VERY WEAK LOW/MID LEVEL GRADIENTS AND CLEAR SKIES WILL LEAD TO VERY
LIGHT AND SOMEWHAT DIURNAL WINDS ACROSS THE DESERTS OVER THE NEXT 24
HOURS. WINDS AT THE TAF SITES WILL OFTEN BE LIGHT/VARIABLE AOB 5KT.
CLEAR SKIES TONIGHT SHOULD HELP TO SET UP FAVORABLE DRAINAGE
CONDITIONS AND CONTRIBUTE TO WINDS TURNING BACK TOWARDS THE EAST OR
SOUTHEAST AT KPHX AND KIWA AFTER 06Z...BUT SPEEDS WILL BE LIGHT.

NO AVIATION ISSUES AT ANY TERMINAL THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING AT LEAST.

AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDED TAFS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY...
WITH VIRTUALLY NO CHANCE OF RAINFALL THROUGH THE
PERIOD...TEMPERATURES WILL BE MAINTAINED IN A SLIGHTLY ABOVE AVERAGE
CATEGORY. MINIMUM HUMIDITY LEVELS WILL REMAIN RELATIVELY STEADY
THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD...DROPPING INTO THE TEENS ACROSS LOWER
ELEVATIONS. OVERNIGHT RECOVERY WILL BE GOOD. WINDS WILL BE
UNSEASONABLY LIGHT WITH OCCASIONAL AFTERNOON BREEZINESS IN UPSLOPE
AREAS.

&&

.PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

AZ...NONE.

CA...NONE.

&&

$$

VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/PHOENIX

DISCUSSION...CB
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...MO/NOLTE
AVIATION...CB
FIRE WEATHER...MO















000
FXUS65 KPSR 300354
AFDPSR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PHOENIX AZ
855 PM MST MON SEP 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
DRY NORTHWEST FLOW WILL ESTABLISH ITSELF OVER THE AREA THIS
WEEK...KEEPING SKIES MOSTLY CLEAR AND RAINFALL CHANCES NIL.
TEMPERATURES WILL BEGIN THE WEEK SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL AND GRADUALLY
WARM THROUGH THE WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE STRENGTHENS OVER THE WEST.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
UPPER LOW CONTINUED TO PUSH OFF TOWARDS THE EAST AND PASS BY TO OUR
NORTH EARLY THIS EVENING...AND USHER IN DRIER WESTERLY FLOW TO THE
LOWER DESERTS IN THE PROCESS. PWAT VALUES DOWN TO JUST 0.61 INCHES
AT TUS PER THE 00Z SOUNDING. SURFACE DEWPOINTS CONTINUED TO FALL
THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING AND MOSTLY RANGED FROM THE UPPER 30S TO MID
40S AT 8 PM. IR IMAGERY SHOWED CLEAR SKIES ACROSS THE AREA THIS
EVENING. EXPECT GENLY CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT MOSTLY DIURNAL WINDS FOR
THE REST OF TONIGHT. NO UPDATES NEEDED.

.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
A DEEP UPPER LOW CONTINUES TO SPIN OVER THE GREAT BASIN...ONLY
GRADUALLY TRANSLATING EASTWARD WITH ONE NOTABLE PV ANOMALY
PROPAGATING INTO THE FOUR CORNERS AREA. ASSOCIATED WITH THIS
NEGATIVE PV ANOMALY WAS A H5 -16C COLD CORE AND STRONGLY DIFLUENT
JET SIGNATURE FORCING DEEP CONVECTION ACROSS NORTHERN NEW MEXICO AND
COLORADO. LOCALLY...STRONG SUBSIDENT NORTHWEST FLOW BEHIND THE WAVE
WAS RAPIDLY ENVELOPING THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA YIELDING CLEAR SKIES
AND DEEPER MIXING OF DRY AIR THROUGHOUT THE BOUNDARY LAYER. DESPITE
SOME NEAR SFC MOISTENING OVERNIGHT DUE TO WET GROUND AND
DECOUPLING...OVERNIGHT LOWS TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY MORNING APPEAR
VERY SIMILAR (NEAR PERSISTENCE) TO THE PLEASANT CONDITIONS
EXPERIENCED THIS MORNING.

THE AFOREMENTIONED UPPER LOW WILL EJECT INTO THE CNTRL/NRN PLAINS
TUESDAY...ALTHOUGH PREVAILING WEAKNESS IN THE HEIGHT FIELDS ALOFT
WILL ALLOW FOR PROGRESSIVE NORTHEAST PACIFIC SHORTWAVE ENERGY TO
DESCEND TOWARDS THE SWRN CONUS REINFORCING MODEST H5 HEIGHTS AND
WEAK CAA IN THE H8-H5 LAYER. UPSTREAM HIGHER AMPLITUDE FLOW WILL
PROMOTE SFC PRESSURE RISES THROUGHOUT THE GREAT BASIN...THOUGH MODEL
THETA-E FORECASTS SUGGEST THE LOW LEVEL COLD FRONTAL PUSH WILL STALL
OVER NRN ARIZONA. THUS...TEMPERATURE FORECASTS DEPICT ONLY A VERY
SLOW WARMING TREND...SCALING BACK SOMEWHAT ON TYPICALLY BEST
PERFORMING GUIDANCE TOWARDS HISTORICAL BIASES OF MODELS TYPICALLY
WARMING TOO FAST FOLLOWING THE FIRST AIRMASS CHANGE OF THE AUTUMN
SEASON.

BY FRIDAY...RIDGING OFF THE PACIFIC WILL TRANSITION OVER THE WESTERN
CONUS WITH 1000-500MB THICKNESSES PEAKING IN THE LOW 580DM RANGE AND
850MB TEMPS CLIMBING NEAR 24C FOR THE AFTERNOONS THROUGH THE EARLY
WEEKEND. 100F DEGREE READINGS WILL PERSIST OUT WEST AND POSSIBLY
MAKING A RETURN OVER THE SOUTH-CENTRAL AZ DESERTS. OVER THE LAST
NORMAL PERIOD (1981-2010) THE AVERAGE LAST DAY WE`VE SEEN 100F IN
PHOENIX FALLS ON OCT 3RD...AND OCT 5TH FOR YUMA. WHERE THE AFTERNOONS
MAY SEEM WARM TO SOME...THE MORNINGS WILL BE MILD AND CLOSER TOWARD
NORMAL READINGS. BY THE LATE WEEKEND/EARLY NEXT WEEK...RIDGE HEIGHTS
LOOK TO LOWER AND FLATTEN AS THE ACTIVE STORM PATTERN OVER THE
NORTHERN PACIFIC APPROACHES WESTERN NORTH AMERICA. OUTSIDE OF SOME
SLIGHT COOLING POTENTIAL FOR TEMPERATURES...CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY
REMAIN DRY WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT DIURNALLY DRIVEN WINDS.

&&

.AVIATION...
SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA INCLUDING KPHX...KIWA...AND KSDL...AND
SOUTHWEST ARIZONA AND SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA INCLUDING KIPL AND KBLH...

VERY WEAK LOW/MID LEVEL GRADIENTS AND CLEAR SKIES WILL LEAD TO VERY
LIGHT AND SOMEWHAT DIURNAL WINDS ACROSS THE DESERTS OVER THE NEXT 24
HOURS. WINDS AT THE TAF SITES WILL OFTEN BE LIGHT/VARIABLE AOB 5KT.
CLEAR SKIES TONIGHT SHOULD HELP TO SET UP FAVORABLE DRAINAGE
CONDITIONS AND CONTRIBUTE TO WINDS TURNING BACK TOWARDS THE EAST OR
SOUTHEAST AT KPHX AND KIWA AFTER 06Z...BUT SPEEDS WILL BE LIGHT.

NO AVIATION ISSUES AT ANY TERMINAL THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING AT LEAST.

AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDED TAFS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY...
WITH VIRTUALLY NO CHANCE OF RAINFALL THROUGH THE
PERIOD...TEMPERATURES WILL BE MAINTAINED IN A SLIGHTLY ABOVE AVERAGE
CATEGORY. MINIMUM HUMIDITY LEVELS WILL REMAIN RELATIVELY STEADY
THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD...DROPPING INTO THE TEENS ACROSS LOWER
ELEVATIONS. OVERNIGHT RECOVERY WILL BE GOOD. WINDS WILL BE
UNSEASONABLY LIGHT WITH OCCASIONAL AFTERNOON BREEZINESS IN UPSLOPE
AREAS.

&&

.PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

AZ...NONE.

CA...NONE.

&&

$$

VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/PHOENIX

DISCUSSION...CB
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...MO/NOLTE
AVIATION...CB
FIRE WEATHER...MO
















000
FXUS65 KTWC 300351
AFDTWC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ
851 PM MST MON SEP 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...DRY CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL INTO THIS WEEKEND. A GRADUAL
WARMING TREND WILL OCCUR ESPECIALLY DURING THE LATTER PART OF THE
WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT BUILDS OVER THE AREA.

&&

.DISCUSSION...THE UPPER WEATHER PATTERN IS DEFINED BY AN EJECTING
CLOSED LOW NOW OVER CO/WY/MT...A BROAD RIDGE EXTENDED OUT IN THE
EASTERN PACIFIC...AND A RAPIDLY WEAKENING TROPICAL STORM RACHEL
POSITIONED AT 23.3N 117.5W MOVING SLOWLY NORTH AT 2KTS.

DRY AIRMASS CONTINUES TO ADVECT INTO SOUTHEAST ARIZONA ON THE
WESTERLY FLOW BEHIND THE EJECTION UPPER LOW. THIS IS EVIDENT ON THE
00Z KTWC UPPER AIR SOUNDING...WITH A PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUE OF
0.61. THE CUMULUS CLOUDS THAT EXTENDED ACROSS THE EASTERN THIRD OF
THE FORECAST AREA HAS SINCE DISSIPATED...AND OTHER THAN A FEW HIGH
CIRRUS FROM DECAYING TROPICAL STORM RACHEL CLIPPING THE EXTREME
SOUTHEAST CORNER OF THE STATE...SKIES ARE CLEAR.

NO UPDATES TO DIGITAL GRIDS/FORECAST NECESSARY THIS EVENING.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...UPPER LOW CENTERED OVER ERN IDAHO WITH MID-LEVEL
TROUGH AXIS EXTENDING SWD INTO SRN AZ THIS AFTERNOON. THE BULK OF
MOSTLY CUMULOFORM CLOUDS FROM TUCSON EWD WILL DISSIPATE THIS EVENING
AS THE MID-LEVEL TROUGH AXIS MOVES WELL EAST OF THE AREA...AND WITH
THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING. THUS...EXPECT DECREASING CLOUDS EARLY
THIS EVENING FOLLOWED BY CLEAR SKIES OR MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES THE REST
OF TONIGHT.

A BROAD UPPER TROUGH OVER THE WRN CONUS TUE WILL ADVANCE EWD INTO
THE ROCKIES AND CENTRAL CONUS PLAINS WED. A SHORTWAVE TROUGH MAY
BRING SOME SHOWERS ACROSS THE FOUR CORNERS REGION WED. THUS...ANY
RAINFALL ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN WELL NE
OF THIS FORECAST AREA. THEREAFTER...HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT IS PROGGED
TO AMPLIFY OVER THE SWRN CONUS THUR-MON. A SOMEWHAT TIGHT SURFACE
PRESSURE GRADIENT MAY PRODUCE LOCALLY GUSTY ELY WINDS THUR NIGHT-
FRI. OTHERWISE...CLEAR SKIES OR MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES WILL PREVAIL
THUR-MON.

HIGH TEMPS TUESDAY WILL BE NEARLY IDENTICAL TO TEMPS ACHIEVED THIS
AFTERNOON. A GRADUAL WARMING TREND WILL THEN OCCUR WED-FRI FOLLOWED
BY CONTINUED ABOVE NORMAL DAYTIME TEMPS THIS WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION...VALID THRU 01/06Z.
EXPECT CLEAR SKIES INTO TUESDAY. SURFACE WIND EAST OF KTUS TUESDAY
AFTERNOON WILL BE WLY/NWLY 12-18 KTS WITH GUSTS TO 25 KTS.
OTHERWISE...SURFACE WIND WILL BE MAINLY LESS THAN 10 KTS THRU
TUESDAY EVENINGN. AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR TAF AMENDMENTS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...DRY CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL INTO THIS WEEKEND.
DAYTIME MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITIES WILL LOWER THIS WEEK AS DRIER
AIR MOVES INTO THE REGION...ALTHOUGH GOOD OVERNIGHT RECOVERIES ARE
STILL EXPECTED. 20-FOOT WINDS ACROSS GRAHAM...GREENLEE AND COCHISE
COUNTIES TUESDAY AFTERNOON WILL BE WEST TO NORTHWEST AT 8-18 MPH.
OTHERWISE...20-FOOT WINDS WILL BE LESS THAN 15 MPH THROUGH THURSDAY.
LOCALLY GUSTY EAST WINDS MAY OCCUR FRIDAY.

&&

.TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.


&&

$$

VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...YOUTUBE...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/TUCSON










000
FXUS65 KTWC 300351
AFDTWC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ
851 PM MST MON SEP 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...DRY CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL INTO THIS WEEKEND. A GRADUAL
WARMING TREND WILL OCCUR ESPECIALLY DURING THE LATTER PART OF THE
WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT BUILDS OVER THE AREA.

&&

.DISCUSSION...THE UPPER WEATHER PATTERN IS DEFINED BY AN EJECTING
CLOSED LOW NOW OVER CO/WY/MT...A BROAD RIDGE EXTENDED OUT IN THE
EASTERN PACIFIC...AND A RAPIDLY WEAKENING TROPICAL STORM RACHEL
POSITIONED AT 23.3N 117.5W MOVING SLOWLY NORTH AT 2KTS.

DRY AIRMASS CONTINUES TO ADVECT INTO SOUTHEAST ARIZONA ON THE
WESTERLY FLOW BEHIND THE EJECTION UPPER LOW. THIS IS EVIDENT ON THE
00Z KTWC UPPER AIR SOUNDING...WITH A PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUE OF
0.61. THE CUMULUS CLOUDS THAT EXTENDED ACROSS THE EASTERN THIRD OF
THE FORECAST AREA HAS SINCE DISSIPATED...AND OTHER THAN A FEW HIGH
CIRRUS FROM DECAYING TROPICAL STORM RACHEL CLIPPING THE EXTREME
SOUTHEAST CORNER OF THE STATE...SKIES ARE CLEAR.

NO UPDATES TO DIGITAL GRIDS/FORECAST NECESSARY THIS EVENING.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...UPPER LOW CENTERED OVER ERN IDAHO WITH MID-LEVEL
TROUGH AXIS EXTENDING SWD INTO SRN AZ THIS AFTERNOON. THE BULK OF
MOSTLY CUMULOFORM CLOUDS FROM TUCSON EWD WILL DISSIPATE THIS EVENING
AS THE MID-LEVEL TROUGH AXIS MOVES WELL EAST OF THE AREA...AND WITH
THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING. THUS...EXPECT DECREASING CLOUDS EARLY
THIS EVENING FOLLOWED BY CLEAR SKIES OR MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES THE REST
OF TONIGHT.

A BROAD UPPER TROUGH OVER THE WRN CONUS TUE WILL ADVANCE EWD INTO
THE ROCKIES AND CENTRAL CONUS PLAINS WED. A SHORTWAVE TROUGH MAY
BRING SOME SHOWERS ACROSS THE FOUR CORNERS REGION WED. THUS...ANY
RAINFALL ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN WELL NE
OF THIS FORECAST AREA. THEREAFTER...HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT IS PROGGED
TO AMPLIFY OVER THE SWRN CONUS THUR-MON. A SOMEWHAT TIGHT SURFACE
PRESSURE GRADIENT MAY PRODUCE LOCALLY GUSTY ELY WINDS THUR NIGHT-
FRI. OTHERWISE...CLEAR SKIES OR MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES WILL PREVAIL
THUR-MON.

HIGH TEMPS TUESDAY WILL BE NEARLY IDENTICAL TO TEMPS ACHIEVED THIS
AFTERNOON. A GRADUAL WARMING TREND WILL THEN OCCUR WED-FRI FOLLOWED
BY CONTINUED ABOVE NORMAL DAYTIME TEMPS THIS WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION...VALID THRU 01/06Z.
EXPECT CLEAR SKIES INTO TUESDAY. SURFACE WIND EAST OF KTUS TUESDAY
AFTERNOON WILL BE WLY/NWLY 12-18 KTS WITH GUSTS TO 25 KTS.
OTHERWISE...SURFACE WIND WILL BE MAINLY LESS THAN 10 KTS THRU
TUESDAY EVENINGN. AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR TAF AMENDMENTS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...DRY CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL INTO THIS WEEKEND.
DAYTIME MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITIES WILL LOWER THIS WEEK AS DRIER
AIR MOVES INTO THE REGION...ALTHOUGH GOOD OVERNIGHT RECOVERIES ARE
STILL EXPECTED. 20-FOOT WINDS ACROSS GRAHAM...GREENLEE AND COCHISE
COUNTIES TUESDAY AFTERNOON WILL BE WEST TO NORTHWEST AT 8-18 MPH.
OTHERWISE...20-FOOT WINDS WILL BE LESS THAN 15 MPH THROUGH THURSDAY.
LOCALLY GUSTY EAST WINDS MAY OCCUR FRIDAY.

&&

.TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.


&&

$$

VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...YOUTUBE...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/TUCSON










000
FXUS65 KTWC 300351
AFDTWC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ
851 PM MST MON SEP 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...DRY CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL INTO THIS WEEKEND. A GRADUAL
WARMING TREND WILL OCCUR ESPECIALLY DURING THE LATTER PART OF THE
WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT BUILDS OVER THE AREA.

&&

.DISCUSSION...THE UPPER WEATHER PATTERN IS DEFINED BY AN EJECTING
CLOSED LOW NOW OVER CO/WY/MT...A BROAD RIDGE EXTENDED OUT IN THE
EASTERN PACIFIC...AND A RAPIDLY WEAKENING TROPICAL STORM RACHEL
POSITIONED AT 23.3N 117.5W MOVING SLOWLY NORTH AT 2KTS.

DRY AIRMASS CONTINUES TO ADVECT INTO SOUTHEAST ARIZONA ON THE
WESTERLY FLOW BEHIND THE EJECTION UPPER LOW. THIS IS EVIDENT ON THE
00Z KTWC UPPER AIR SOUNDING...WITH A PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUE OF
0.61. THE CUMULUS CLOUDS THAT EXTENDED ACROSS THE EASTERN THIRD OF
THE FORECAST AREA HAS SINCE DISSIPATED...AND OTHER THAN A FEW HIGH
CIRRUS FROM DECAYING TROPICAL STORM RACHEL CLIPPING THE EXTREME
SOUTHEAST CORNER OF THE STATE...SKIES ARE CLEAR.

NO UPDATES TO DIGITAL GRIDS/FORECAST NECESSARY THIS EVENING.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...UPPER LOW CENTERED OVER ERN IDAHO WITH MID-LEVEL
TROUGH AXIS EXTENDING SWD INTO SRN AZ THIS AFTERNOON. THE BULK OF
MOSTLY CUMULOFORM CLOUDS FROM TUCSON EWD WILL DISSIPATE THIS EVENING
AS THE MID-LEVEL TROUGH AXIS MOVES WELL EAST OF THE AREA...AND WITH
THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING. THUS...EXPECT DECREASING CLOUDS EARLY
THIS EVENING FOLLOWED BY CLEAR SKIES OR MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES THE REST
OF TONIGHT.

A BROAD UPPER TROUGH OVER THE WRN CONUS TUE WILL ADVANCE EWD INTO
THE ROCKIES AND CENTRAL CONUS PLAINS WED. A SHORTWAVE TROUGH MAY
BRING SOME SHOWERS ACROSS THE FOUR CORNERS REGION WED. THUS...ANY
RAINFALL ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN WELL NE
OF THIS FORECAST AREA. THEREAFTER...HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT IS PROGGED
TO AMPLIFY OVER THE SWRN CONUS THUR-MON. A SOMEWHAT TIGHT SURFACE
PRESSURE GRADIENT MAY PRODUCE LOCALLY GUSTY ELY WINDS THUR NIGHT-
FRI. OTHERWISE...CLEAR SKIES OR MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES WILL PREVAIL
THUR-MON.

HIGH TEMPS TUESDAY WILL BE NEARLY IDENTICAL TO TEMPS ACHIEVED THIS
AFTERNOON. A GRADUAL WARMING TREND WILL THEN OCCUR WED-FRI FOLLOWED
BY CONTINUED ABOVE NORMAL DAYTIME TEMPS THIS WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION...VALID THRU 01/06Z.
EXPECT CLEAR SKIES INTO TUESDAY. SURFACE WIND EAST OF KTUS TUESDAY
AFTERNOON WILL BE WLY/NWLY 12-18 KTS WITH GUSTS TO 25 KTS.
OTHERWISE...SURFACE WIND WILL BE MAINLY LESS THAN 10 KTS THRU
TUESDAY EVENINGN. AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR TAF AMENDMENTS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...DRY CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL INTO THIS WEEKEND.
DAYTIME MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITIES WILL LOWER THIS WEEK AS DRIER
AIR MOVES INTO THE REGION...ALTHOUGH GOOD OVERNIGHT RECOVERIES ARE
STILL EXPECTED. 20-FOOT WINDS ACROSS GRAHAM...GREENLEE AND COCHISE
COUNTIES TUESDAY AFTERNOON WILL BE WEST TO NORTHWEST AT 8-18 MPH.
OTHERWISE...20-FOOT WINDS WILL BE LESS THAN 15 MPH THROUGH THURSDAY.
LOCALLY GUSTY EAST WINDS MAY OCCUR FRIDAY.

&&

.TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.


&&

$$

VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...YOUTUBE...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/TUCSON










000
FXUS65 KTWC 300351
AFDTWC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ
851 PM MST MON SEP 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...DRY CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL INTO THIS WEEKEND. A GRADUAL
WARMING TREND WILL OCCUR ESPECIALLY DURING THE LATTER PART OF THE
WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT BUILDS OVER THE AREA.

&&

.DISCUSSION...THE UPPER WEATHER PATTERN IS DEFINED BY AN EJECTING
CLOSED LOW NOW OVER CO/WY/MT...A BROAD RIDGE EXTENDED OUT IN THE
EASTERN PACIFIC...AND A RAPIDLY WEAKENING TROPICAL STORM RACHEL
POSITIONED AT 23.3N 117.5W MOVING SLOWLY NORTH AT 2KTS.

DRY AIRMASS CONTINUES TO ADVECT INTO SOUTHEAST ARIZONA ON THE
WESTERLY FLOW BEHIND THE EJECTION UPPER LOW. THIS IS EVIDENT ON THE
00Z KTWC UPPER AIR SOUNDING...WITH A PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUE OF
0.61. THE CUMULUS CLOUDS THAT EXTENDED ACROSS THE EASTERN THIRD OF
THE FORECAST AREA HAS SINCE DISSIPATED...AND OTHER THAN A FEW HIGH
CIRRUS FROM DECAYING TROPICAL STORM RACHEL CLIPPING THE EXTREME
SOUTHEAST CORNER OF THE STATE...SKIES ARE CLEAR.

NO UPDATES TO DIGITAL GRIDS/FORECAST NECESSARY THIS EVENING.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...UPPER LOW CENTERED OVER ERN IDAHO WITH MID-LEVEL
TROUGH AXIS EXTENDING SWD INTO SRN AZ THIS AFTERNOON. THE BULK OF
MOSTLY CUMULOFORM CLOUDS FROM TUCSON EWD WILL DISSIPATE THIS EVENING
AS THE MID-LEVEL TROUGH AXIS MOVES WELL EAST OF THE AREA...AND WITH
THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING. THUS...EXPECT DECREASING CLOUDS EARLY
THIS EVENING FOLLOWED BY CLEAR SKIES OR MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES THE REST
OF TONIGHT.

A BROAD UPPER TROUGH OVER THE WRN CONUS TUE WILL ADVANCE EWD INTO
THE ROCKIES AND CENTRAL CONUS PLAINS WED. A SHORTWAVE TROUGH MAY
BRING SOME SHOWERS ACROSS THE FOUR CORNERS REGION WED. THUS...ANY
RAINFALL ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN WELL NE
OF THIS FORECAST AREA. THEREAFTER...HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT IS PROGGED
TO AMPLIFY OVER THE SWRN CONUS THUR-MON. A SOMEWHAT TIGHT SURFACE
PRESSURE GRADIENT MAY PRODUCE LOCALLY GUSTY ELY WINDS THUR NIGHT-
FRI. OTHERWISE...CLEAR SKIES OR MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES WILL PREVAIL
THUR-MON.

HIGH TEMPS TUESDAY WILL BE NEARLY IDENTICAL TO TEMPS ACHIEVED THIS
AFTERNOON. A GRADUAL WARMING TREND WILL THEN OCCUR WED-FRI FOLLOWED
BY CONTINUED ABOVE NORMAL DAYTIME TEMPS THIS WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION...VALID THRU 01/06Z.
EXPECT CLEAR SKIES INTO TUESDAY. SURFACE WIND EAST OF KTUS TUESDAY
AFTERNOON WILL BE WLY/NWLY 12-18 KTS WITH GUSTS TO 25 KTS.
OTHERWISE...SURFACE WIND WILL BE MAINLY LESS THAN 10 KTS THRU
TUESDAY EVENINGN. AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR TAF AMENDMENTS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...DRY CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL INTO THIS WEEKEND.
DAYTIME MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITIES WILL LOWER THIS WEEK AS DRIER
AIR MOVES INTO THE REGION...ALTHOUGH GOOD OVERNIGHT RECOVERIES ARE
STILL EXPECTED. 20-FOOT WINDS ACROSS GRAHAM...GREENLEE AND COCHISE
COUNTIES TUESDAY AFTERNOON WILL BE WEST TO NORTHWEST AT 8-18 MPH.
OTHERWISE...20-FOOT WINDS WILL BE LESS THAN 15 MPH THROUGH THURSDAY.
LOCALLY GUSTY EAST WINDS MAY OCCUR FRIDAY.

&&

.TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.


&&

$$

VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...YOUTUBE...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/TUCSON










000
FXUS65 KTWC 300351
AFDTWC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ
851 PM MST MON SEP 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...DRY CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL INTO THIS WEEKEND. A GRADUAL
WARMING TREND WILL OCCUR ESPECIALLY DURING THE LATTER PART OF THE
WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT BUILDS OVER THE AREA.

&&

.DISCUSSION...THE UPPER WEATHER PATTERN IS DEFINED BY AN EJECTING
CLOSED LOW NOW OVER CO/WY/MT...A BROAD RIDGE EXTENDED OUT IN THE
EASTERN PACIFIC...AND A RAPIDLY WEAKENING TROPICAL STORM RACHEL
POSITIONED AT 23.3N 117.5W MOVING SLOWLY NORTH AT 2KTS.

DRY AIRMASS CONTINUES TO ADVECT INTO SOUTHEAST ARIZONA ON THE
WESTERLY FLOW BEHIND THE EJECTION UPPER LOW. THIS IS EVIDENT ON THE
00Z KTWC UPPER AIR SOUNDING...WITH A PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUE OF
0.61. THE CUMULUS CLOUDS THAT EXTENDED ACROSS THE EASTERN THIRD OF
THE FORECAST AREA HAS SINCE DISSIPATED...AND OTHER THAN A FEW HIGH
CIRRUS FROM DECAYING TROPICAL STORM RACHEL CLIPPING THE EXTREME
SOUTHEAST CORNER OF THE STATE...SKIES ARE CLEAR.

NO UPDATES TO DIGITAL GRIDS/FORECAST NECESSARY THIS EVENING.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...UPPER LOW CENTERED OVER ERN IDAHO WITH MID-LEVEL
TROUGH AXIS EXTENDING SWD INTO SRN AZ THIS AFTERNOON. THE BULK OF
MOSTLY CUMULOFORM CLOUDS FROM TUCSON EWD WILL DISSIPATE THIS EVENING
AS THE MID-LEVEL TROUGH AXIS MOVES WELL EAST OF THE AREA...AND WITH
THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING. THUS...EXPECT DECREASING CLOUDS EARLY
THIS EVENING FOLLOWED BY CLEAR SKIES OR MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES THE REST
OF TONIGHT.

A BROAD UPPER TROUGH OVER THE WRN CONUS TUE WILL ADVANCE EWD INTO
THE ROCKIES AND CENTRAL CONUS PLAINS WED. A SHORTWAVE TROUGH MAY
BRING SOME SHOWERS ACROSS THE FOUR CORNERS REGION WED. THUS...ANY
RAINFALL ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN WELL NE
OF THIS FORECAST AREA. THEREAFTER...HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT IS PROGGED
TO AMPLIFY OVER THE SWRN CONUS THUR-MON. A SOMEWHAT TIGHT SURFACE
PRESSURE GRADIENT MAY PRODUCE LOCALLY GUSTY ELY WINDS THUR NIGHT-
FRI. OTHERWISE...CLEAR SKIES OR MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES WILL PREVAIL
THUR-MON.

HIGH TEMPS TUESDAY WILL BE NEARLY IDENTICAL TO TEMPS ACHIEVED THIS
AFTERNOON. A GRADUAL WARMING TREND WILL THEN OCCUR WED-FRI FOLLOWED
BY CONTINUED ABOVE NORMAL DAYTIME TEMPS THIS WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION...VALID THRU 01/06Z.
EXPECT CLEAR SKIES INTO TUESDAY. SURFACE WIND EAST OF KTUS TUESDAY
AFTERNOON WILL BE WLY/NWLY 12-18 KTS WITH GUSTS TO 25 KTS.
OTHERWISE...SURFACE WIND WILL BE MAINLY LESS THAN 10 KTS THRU
TUESDAY EVENINGN. AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR TAF AMENDMENTS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...DRY CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL INTO THIS WEEKEND.
DAYTIME MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITIES WILL LOWER THIS WEEK AS DRIER
AIR MOVES INTO THE REGION...ALTHOUGH GOOD OVERNIGHT RECOVERIES ARE
STILL EXPECTED. 20-FOOT WINDS ACROSS GRAHAM...GREENLEE AND COCHISE
COUNTIES TUESDAY AFTERNOON WILL BE WEST TO NORTHWEST AT 8-18 MPH.
OTHERWISE...20-FOOT WINDS WILL BE LESS THAN 15 MPH THROUGH THURSDAY.
LOCALLY GUSTY EAST WINDS MAY OCCUR FRIDAY.

&&

.TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.


&&

$$

VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...YOUTUBE...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/TUCSON










000
FXUS65 KFGZ 300347
AFDFGZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ
847 PM MST MON SEP 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
COOL DRY AIR WILL MOVE IN FROM THE WEST AS THE LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM EXITS THE REGION. EXPECT COOLER NIGHTS WITH LITTLE
PRECIPITATION FORECAST THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK. A WEAK
TROUGH WILL BRUSH THROUGH UTAH ON WEDNESDAY WITH HIGHER CLOUD COVER
AND SLIGHT CHANCES FOR LIGHT SHOWERS OVER THE UTAH BORDER REGION.
THE PACIFIC RIDGE WILL BUILD INTO ARIZONA ON FRIDAY WITH WARMER HIGH
TEMPERATURES FORECAST THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEKEND.

&&

.DISCUSSION...MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES ARE BEING OBSERVED THIS EVENING
ACROSS NORTHERN ARIZONA. OTHER THAN A FEW CLOUDS ALONG THE AZ/UT
BORDER...CLEAR SKIES WILL CONTINUE OVERNIGHT. NO FORECAST UPDATES
ARE NEEDED AND THE PREVIOUS DISCUSSION STILL APPLIES.

&&

.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION (330 PM MST)...
A LARGE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM CUT-OFF FROM THE POLAR
FRONT JET WILL CONTINUE TO DRIFT EASTWARD THROUGH UTAH THIS EVENING.
SHOWER ACTIVITY ALONG THE UTAH AND NEW MEXICO BORDER WILL DIMINISH
AFTER SUNSET. DRIER WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT HAS FIRMLY REPLACED THE
MOIST SOUTHERLY FLOW PATTERN. THE DRIER FALL CONDITIONS AND CLEAR
SKIES WILL LEAD TO OVERNIGHT AND MORNING TEMPERATURES APPROACHING
FREEZING IN PORTIONS OF THE HIGH COUNTRY.

WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...ANOTHER WEAK TROUGH MOVING THROUGH UTAH
ON WEDNESDAY WILL BRING SLIGHT CHANCES FOR LIGHT SHOWERS TO THE UTAH
BORDER REGION. ELSEWHERE DRY CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH MUCH OF
THE UPCOMING WORK WEEK. BY FRIDAY...THE PACIFIC RIDGE WILL BUILD
INTO ARIZONA WARMING UP OUR HIGH TEMPERATURES IN NORTHERN ARIZONA BY
AROUND 5 DEGREES FAHRENHEIT. THESE WARMER DAY TIME TEMPERATURES
ALONG WITH SUNNY SKIES WILL PERSIST FROM FRIDAY INTO THE UPCOMING
WEEKEND. A GREAT WEEKEND FOR OUTDOOR ACTIVITIES.

&&

.AVIATION...
FOR THE 06Z PACKAGE...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST FOR THE NEXT 24
HOURS WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES. GENERALLY LIGHT SW-W WINDS ARE
FORECAST FOR TUESDAY AFTERNOON. AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED
FOR AMENDMENTS.

&&

.FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC.........MCS/BOHLIN
AVIATION.......MCS/JJ

FOR NORTHERN ARIZONA WEATHER INFORMATION VISIT
WEATHER.GOV/FLAGSTAFF






000
FXUS65 KFGZ 300347
AFDFGZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ
847 PM MST MON SEP 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
COOL DRY AIR WILL MOVE IN FROM THE WEST AS THE LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM EXITS THE REGION. EXPECT COOLER NIGHTS WITH LITTLE
PRECIPITATION FORECAST THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK. A WEAK
TROUGH WILL BRUSH THROUGH UTAH ON WEDNESDAY WITH HIGHER CLOUD COVER
AND SLIGHT CHANCES FOR LIGHT SHOWERS OVER THE UTAH BORDER REGION.
THE PACIFIC RIDGE WILL BUILD INTO ARIZONA ON FRIDAY WITH WARMER HIGH
TEMPERATURES FORECAST THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEKEND.

&&

.DISCUSSION...MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES ARE BEING OBSERVED THIS EVENING
ACROSS NORTHERN ARIZONA. OTHER THAN A FEW CLOUDS ALONG THE AZ/UT
BORDER...CLEAR SKIES WILL CONTINUE OVERNIGHT. NO FORECAST UPDATES
ARE NEEDED AND THE PREVIOUS DISCUSSION STILL APPLIES.

&&

.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION (330 PM MST)...
A LARGE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM CUT-OFF FROM THE POLAR
FRONT JET WILL CONTINUE TO DRIFT EASTWARD THROUGH UTAH THIS EVENING.
SHOWER ACTIVITY ALONG THE UTAH AND NEW MEXICO BORDER WILL DIMINISH
AFTER SUNSET. DRIER WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT HAS FIRMLY REPLACED THE
MOIST SOUTHERLY FLOW PATTERN. THE DRIER FALL CONDITIONS AND CLEAR
SKIES WILL LEAD TO OVERNIGHT AND MORNING TEMPERATURES APPROACHING
FREEZING IN PORTIONS OF THE HIGH COUNTRY.

WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...ANOTHER WEAK TROUGH MOVING THROUGH UTAH
ON WEDNESDAY WILL BRING SLIGHT CHANCES FOR LIGHT SHOWERS TO THE UTAH
BORDER REGION. ELSEWHERE DRY CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH MUCH OF
THE UPCOMING WORK WEEK. BY FRIDAY...THE PACIFIC RIDGE WILL BUILD
INTO ARIZONA WARMING UP OUR HIGH TEMPERATURES IN NORTHERN ARIZONA BY
AROUND 5 DEGREES FAHRENHEIT. THESE WARMER DAY TIME TEMPERATURES
ALONG WITH SUNNY SKIES WILL PERSIST FROM FRIDAY INTO THE UPCOMING
WEEKEND. A GREAT WEEKEND FOR OUTDOOR ACTIVITIES.

&&

.AVIATION...
FOR THE 06Z PACKAGE...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST FOR THE NEXT 24
HOURS WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES. GENERALLY LIGHT SW-W WINDS ARE
FORECAST FOR TUESDAY AFTERNOON. AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED
FOR AMENDMENTS.

&&

.FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC.........MCS/BOHLIN
AVIATION.......MCS/JJ

FOR NORTHERN ARIZONA WEATHER INFORMATION VISIT
WEATHER.GOV/FLAGSTAFF






000
FXUS65 KFGZ 300347
AFDFGZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ
847 PM MST MON SEP 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
COOL DRY AIR WILL MOVE IN FROM THE WEST AS THE LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM EXITS THE REGION. EXPECT COOLER NIGHTS WITH LITTLE
PRECIPITATION FORECAST THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK. A WEAK
TROUGH WILL BRUSH THROUGH UTAH ON WEDNESDAY WITH HIGHER CLOUD COVER
AND SLIGHT CHANCES FOR LIGHT SHOWERS OVER THE UTAH BORDER REGION.
THE PACIFIC RIDGE WILL BUILD INTO ARIZONA ON FRIDAY WITH WARMER HIGH
TEMPERATURES FORECAST THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEKEND.

&&

.DISCUSSION...MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES ARE BEING OBSERVED THIS EVENING
ACROSS NORTHERN ARIZONA. OTHER THAN A FEW CLOUDS ALONG THE AZ/UT
BORDER...CLEAR SKIES WILL CONTINUE OVERNIGHT. NO FORECAST UPDATES
ARE NEEDED AND THE PREVIOUS DISCUSSION STILL APPLIES.

&&

.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION (330 PM MST)...
A LARGE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM CUT-OFF FROM THE POLAR
FRONT JET WILL CONTINUE TO DRIFT EASTWARD THROUGH UTAH THIS EVENING.
SHOWER ACTIVITY ALONG THE UTAH AND NEW MEXICO BORDER WILL DIMINISH
AFTER SUNSET. DRIER WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT HAS FIRMLY REPLACED THE
MOIST SOUTHERLY FLOW PATTERN. THE DRIER FALL CONDITIONS AND CLEAR
SKIES WILL LEAD TO OVERNIGHT AND MORNING TEMPERATURES APPROACHING
FREEZING IN PORTIONS OF THE HIGH COUNTRY.

WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...ANOTHER WEAK TROUGH MOVING THROUGH UTAH
ON WEDNESDAY WILL BRING SLIGHT CHANCES FOR LIGHT SHOWERS TO THE UTAH
BORDER REGION. ELSEWHERE DRY CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH MUCH OF
THE UPCOMING WORK WEEK. BY FRIDAY...THE PACIFIC RIDGE WILL BUILD
INTO ARIZONA WARMING UP OUR HIGH TEMPERATURES IN NORTHERN ARIZONA BY
AROUND 5 DEGREES FAHRENHEIT. THESE WARMER DAY TIME TEMPERATURES
ALONG WITH SUNNY SKIES WILL PERSIST FROM FRIDAY INTO THE UPCOMING
WEEKEND. A GREAT WEEKEND FOR OUTDOOR ACTIVITIES.

&&

.AVIATION...
FOR THE 06Z PACKAGE...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST FOR THE NEXT 24
HOURS WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES. GENERALLY LIGHT SW-W WINDS ARE
FORECAST FOR TUESDAY AFTERNOON. AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED
FOR AMENDMENTS.

&&

.FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC.........MCS/BOHLIN
AVIATION.......MCS/JJ

FOR NORTHERN ARIZONA WEATHER INFORMATION VISIT
WEATHER.GOV/FLAGSTAFF






000
FXUS65 KFGZ 300347
AFDFGZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ
847 PM MST MON SEP 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
COOL DRY AIR WILL MOVE IN FROM THE WEST AS THE LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM EXITS THE REGION. EXPECT COOLER NIGHTS WITH LITTLE
PRECIPITATION FORECAST THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK. A WEAK
TROUGH WILL BRUSH THROUGH UTAH ON WEDNESDAY WITH HIGHER CLOUD COVER
AND SLIGHT CHANCES FOR LIGHT SHOWERS OVER THE UTAH BORDER REGION.
THE PACIFIC RIDGE WILL BUILD INTO ARIZONA ON FRIDAY WITH WARMER HIGH
TEMPERATURES FORECAST THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEKEND.

&&

.DISCUSSION...MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES ARE BEING OBSERVED THIS EVENING
ACROSS NORTHERN ARIZONA. OTHER THAN A FEW CLOUDS ALONG THE AZ/UT
BORDER...CLEAR SKIES WILL CONTINUE OVERNIGHT. NO FORECAST UPDATES
ARE NEEDED AND THE PREVIOUS DISCUSSION STILL APPLIES.

&&

.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION (330 PM MST)...
A LARGE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM CUT-OFF FROM THE POLAR
FRONT JET WILL CONTINUE TO DRIFT EASTWARD THROUGH UTAH THIS EVENING.
SHOWER ACTIVITY ALONG THE UTAH AND NEW MEXICO BORDER WILL DIMINISH
AFTER SUNSET. DRIER WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT HAS FIRMLY REPLACED THE
MOIST SOUTHERLY FLOW PATTERN. THE DRIER FALL CONDITIONS AND CLEAR
SKIES WILL LEAD TO OVERNIGHT AND MORNING TEMPERATURES APPROACHING
FREEZING IN PORTIONS OF THE HIGH COUNTRY.

WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...ANOTHER WEAK TROUGH MOVING THROUGH UTAH
ON WEDNESDAY WILL BRING SLIGHT CHANCES FOR LIGHT SHOWERS TO THE UTAH
BORDER REGION. ELSEWHERE DRY CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH MUCH OF
THE UPCOMING WORK WEEK. BY FRIDAY...THE PACIFIC RIDGE WILL BUILD
INTO ARIZONA WARMING UP OUR HIGH TEMPERATURES IN NORTHERN ARIZONA BY
AROUND 5 DEGREES FAHRENHEIT. THESE WARMER DAY TIME TEMPERATURES
ALONG WITH SUNNY SKIES WILL PERSIST FROM FRIDAY INTO THE UPCOMING
WEEKEND. A GREAT WEEKEND FOR OUTDOOR ACTIVITIES.

&&

.AVIATION...
FOR THE 06Z PACKAGE...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST FOR THE NEXT 24
HOURS WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES. GENERALLY LIGHT SW-W WINDS ARE
FORECAST FOR TUESDAY AFTERNOON. AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED
FOR AMENDMENTS.

&&

.FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC.........MCS/BOHLIN
AVIATION.......MCS/JJ

FOR NORTHERN ARIZONA WEATHER INFORMATION VISIT
WEATHER.GOV/FLAGSTAFF






000
FXUS65 KPSR 292346 AAA
AFDPSR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PHOENIX AZ
445 PM MST MON SEP 29 2014

.UPDATE...UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
DRY NORTHWEST FLOW WILL ESTABLISH ITSELF OVER THE AREA THIS
WEEK...KEEPING SKIES MOSTLY CLEAR AND RAINFALL CHANCES NIL.
TEMPERATURES WILL BEGIN THE WEEK SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL AND GRADUALLY
WARM THROUGH THE WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE STRENGTHENS OVER THE WEST.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
A DEEP UPPER LOW CONTINUES TO SPIN OVER THE GREAT BASIN...ONLY
GRADUALLY TRANSLATING EASTWARD WITH ONE NOTABLE PV ANOMALY
PROPAGATING INTO THE FOUR CORNERS AREA. ASSOCIATED WITH THIS
NEGATIVE PV ANOMALY WAS A H5 -16C COLD CORE AND STRONGLY DIFLUENT
JET SIGNATURE FORCING DEEP CONVECTION ACROSS NORTHERN NEW MEXICO AND
COLORADO. LOCALLY...STRONG SUBSIDENT NORTHWEST FLOW BEHIND THE WAVE
WAS RAPIDLY ENVELOPING THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA YIELDING CLEAR SKIES
AND DEEPER MIXING OF DRY AIR THROUGHOUT THE BOUNDARY LAYER. DESPITE
SOME NEAR SFC MOISTENING OVERNIGHT DUE TO WET GROUND AND
DECOUPLING...OVERNIGHT LOWS TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY MORNING APPEAR
VERY SIMILAR (NEAR PERSISTENCE) TO THE PLEASANT CONDITIONS
EXPERIENCED THIS MORNING.

THE AFOREMENTIONED UPPER LOW WILL EJECT INTO THE CNTRL/NRN PLAINS
TUESDAY...ALTHOUGH PREVAILING WEAKNESS IN THE HEIGHT FIELDS ALOFT
WILL ALLOW FOR PROGRESSIVE NORTHEAST PACIFIC SHORTWAVE ENERGY TO
DESCEND TOWARDS THE SWRN CONUS REINFORCING MODEST H5 HEIGHTS AND
WEAK CAA IN THE H8-H5 LAYER. UPSTREAM HIGHER AMPLITUDE FLOW WILL
PROMOTE SFC PRESSURE RISES THROUGHOUT THE GREAT BASIN...THOUGH MODEL
THETA-E FORECASTS SUGGEST THE LOW LEVEL COLD FRONTAL PUSH WILL STALL
OVER NRN ARIZONA. THUS...TEMPERATURE FORECASTS DEPICT ONLY A VERY
SLOW WARMING TREND...SCALING BACK SOMEWHAT ON TYPICALLY BEST
PERFORMING GUIDANCE TOWARDS HISTORICAL BIASES OF MODELS TYPICALLY
WARMING TOO FAST FOLLOWING THE FIRST AIRMASS CHANGE OF THE AUTUMN
SEASON.

BY FRIDAY...RIDGING OFF THE PACIFIC WILL TRANSITION OVER THE WESTERN
CONUS WITH 1000-500MB THICKNESSES PEAKING IN THE LOW 580DM RANGE AND
850MB TEMPS CLIMBING NEAR 24C FOR THE AFTERNOONS THROUGH THE EARLY
WEEKEND. 100F DEGREE READINGS WILL PERSIST OUT WEST AND POSSIBLY
MAKING A RETURN OVER THE SOUTH-CENTRAL AZ DESERTS. OVER THE LAST
NORMAL PERIOD (1981-2010) THE AVERAGE LAST DAY WE`VE SEEN 100F IN
PHOENIX FALLS ON OCT 3RD...AND OCT 5TH FOR YUMA. WHERE THE AFTERNOONS
MAY SEEM WARM TO SOME...THE MORNINGS WILL BE MILD AND CLOSER TOWARD
NORMAL READINGS. BY THE LATE WEEKEND/EARLY NEXT WEEK...RIDGE HEIGHTS
LOOK TO LOWER AND FLATTEN AS THE ACTIVE STORM PATTERN OVER THE
NORTHERN PACIFIC APPROACHES WESTERN NORTH AMERICA. OUTSIDE OF SOME
SLIGHT COOLING POTENTIAL FOR TEMPERATURES...CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY
REMAIN DRY WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT DIURNALLY DRIVEN WINDS.

&&

.AVIATION...
SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA INCLUDING KPHX...KIWA...AND KSDL...AND
SOUTHWEST ARIZONA AND SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA INCLUDING KIPL AND KBLH...

VERY WEAK LOW/MID LEVEL GRADIENTS AND CLEAR SKIES WILL LEAD TO VERY
LIGHT AND SOMEWHAT DIURNAL WINDS ACROSS THE DESERTS OVER THE NEXT 24
HOURS. WINDS AT THE TAF SITES WILL OFTEN BE LIGHT/VARIABLE AOB 5KT.
CLEAR SKIES TONIGHT SHOULD HELP TO SET UP FAVORABLE DRAINAGE
CONDITIONS AND CONTRIBUTE TO WINDS TURNING BACK TOWARDS THE EAST OR
SOUTHEAST AT KPHX AND KIWA AFTER 06Z...BUT SPEEDS WILL BE LIGHT.

NO AVIATION ISSUES AT ANY TERMINAL THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING AT LEAST.

AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDED TAFS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY...
WITH VIRTUALLY NO CHANCE OF RAINFALL THROUGH THE
PERIOD...TEMPERATURES WILL BE MAINTAINED IN A SLIGHTLY ABOVE AVERAGE
CATEGORY. MINIMUM HUMIDITY LEVELS WILL REMAIN RELATIVELY STEADY
THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD...DROPPING INTO THE TEENS ACROSS LOWER
ELEVATIONS. OVERNIGHT RECOVERY WILL BE GOOD. WINDS WILL BE
UNSEASONABLY LIGHT WITH OCCASIONAL AFTERNOON BREEZINESS IN UPSLOPE
AREAS.

&&

.PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

AZ...NONE.

CA...NONE.

&&

$$

VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/PHOENIX

DISCUSSION...MO/NOLTE
AVIATION...CB
FIRE WEATHER...MO












000
FXUS65 KPSR 292346 AAA
AFDPSR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PHOENIX AZ
445 PM MST MON SEP 29 2014

.UPDATE...UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
DRY NORTHWEST FLOW WILL ESTABLISH ITSELF OVER THE AREA THIS
WEEK...KEEPING SKIES MOSTLY CLEAR AND RAINFALL CHANCES NIL.
TEMPERATURES WILL BEGIN THE WEEK SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL AND GRADUALLY
WARM THROUGH THE WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE STRENGTHENS OVER THE WEST.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
A DEEP UPPER LOW CONTINUES TO SPIN OVER THE GREAT BASIN...ONLY
GRADUALLY TRANSLATING EASTWARD WITH ONE NOTABLE PV ANOMALY
PROPAGATING INTO THE FOUR CORNERS AREA. ASSOCIATED WITH THIS
NEGATIVE PV ANOMALY WAS A H5 -16C COLD CORE AND STRONGLY DIFLUENT
JET SIGNATURE FORCING DEEP CONVECTION ACROSS NORTHERN NEW MEXICO AND
COLORADO. LOCALLY...STRONG SUBSIDENT NORTHWEST FLOW BEHIND THE WAVE
WAS RAPIDLY ENVELOPING THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA YIELDING CLEAR SKIES
AND DEEPER MIXING OF DRY AIR THROUGHOUT THE BOUNDARY LAYER. DESPITE
SOME NEAR SFC MOISTENING OVERNIGHT DUE TO WET GROUND AND
DECOUPLING...OVERNIGHT LOWS TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY MORNING APPEAR
VERY SIMILAR (NEAR PERSISTENCE) TO THE PLEASANT CONDITIONS
EXPERIENCED THIS MORNING.

THE AFOREMENTIONED UPPER LOW WILL EJECT INTO THE CNTRL/NRN PLAINS
TUESDAY...ALTHOUGH PREVAILING WEAKNESS IN THE HEIGHT FIELDS ALOFT
WILL ALLOW FOR PROGRESSIVE NORTHEAST PACIFIC SHORTWAVE ENERGY TO
DESCEND TOWARDS THE SWRN CONUS REINFORCING MODEST H5 HEIGHTS AND
WEAK CAA IN THE H8-H5 LAYER. UPSTREAM HIGHER AMPLITUDE FLOW WILL
PROMOTE SFC PRESSURE RISES THROUGHOUT THE GREAT BASIN...THOUGH MODEL
THETA-E FORECASTS SUGGEST THE LOW LEVEL COLD FRONTAL PUSH WILL STALL
OVER NRN ARIZONA. THUS...TEMPERATURE FORECASTS DEPICT ONLY A VERY
SLOW WARMING TREND...SCALING BACK SOMEWHAT ON TYPICALLY BEST
PERFORMING GUIDANCE TOWARDS HISTORICAL BIASES OF MODELS TYPICALLY
WARMING TOO FAST FOLLOWING THE FIRST AIRMASS CHANGE OF THE AUTUMN
SEASON.

BY FRIDAY...RIDGING OFF THE PACIFIC WILL TRANSITION OVER THE WESTERN
CONUS WITH 1000-500MB THICKNESSES PEAKING IN THE LOW 580DM RANGE AND
850MB TEMPS CLIMBING NEAR 24C FOR THE AFTERNOONS THROUGH THE EARLY
WEEKEND. 100F DEGREE READINGS WILL PERSIST OUT WEST AND POSSIBLY
MAKING A RETURN OVER THE SOUTH-CENTRAL AZ DESERTS. OVER THE LAST
NORMAL PERIOD (1981-2010) THE AVERAGE LAST DAY WE`VE SEEN 100F IN
PHOENIX FALLS ON OCT 3RD...AND OCT 5TH FOR YUMA. WHERE THE AFTERNOONS
MAY SEEM WARM TO SOME...THE MORNINGS WILL BE MILD AND CLOSER TOWARD
NORMAL READINGS. BY THE LATE WEEKEND/EARLY NEXT WEEK...RIDGE HEIGHTS
LOOK TO LOWER AND FLATTEN AS THE ACTIVE STORM PATTERN OVER THE
NORTHERN PACIFIC APPROACHES WESTERN NORTH AMERICA. OUTSIDE OF SOME
SLIGHT COOLING POTENTIAL FOR TEMPERATURES...CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY
REMAIN DRY WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT DIURNALLY DRIVEN WINDS.

&&

.AVIATION...
SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA INCLUDING KPHX...KIWA...AND KSDL...AND
SOUTHWEST ARIZONA AND SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA INCLUDING KIPL AND KBLH...

VERY WEAK LOW/MID LEVEL GRADIENTS AND CLEAR SKIES WILL LEAD TO VERY
LIGHT AND SOMEWHAT DIURNAL WINDS ACROSS THE DESERTS OVER THE NEXT 24
HOURS. WINDS AT THE TAF SITES WILL OFTEN BE LIGHT/VARIABLE AOB 5KT.
CLEAR SKIES TONIGHT SHOULD HELP TO SET UP FAVORABLE DRAINAGE
CONDITIONS AND CONTRIBUTE TO WINDS TURNING BACK TOWARDS THE EAST OR
SOUTHEAST AT KPHX AND KIWA AFTER 06Z...BUT SPEEDS WILL BE LIGHT.

NO AVIATION ISSUES AT ANY TERMINAL THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING AT LEAST.

AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDED TAFS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY...
WITH VIRTUALLY NO CHANCE OF RAINFALL THROUGH THE
PERIOD...TEMPERATURES WILL BE MAINTAINED IN A SLIGHTLY ABOVE AVERAGE
CATEGORY. MINIMUM HUMIDITY LEVELS WILL REMAIN RELATIVELY STEADY
THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD...DROPPING INTO THE TEENS ACROSS LOWER
ELEVATIONS. OVERNIGHT RECOVERY WILL BE GOOD. WINDS WILL BE
UNSEASONABLY LIGHT WITH OCCASIONAL AFTERNOON BREEZINESS IN UPSLOPE
AREAS.

&&

.PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

AZ...NONE.

CA...NONE.

&&

$$

VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/PHOENIX

DISCUSSION...MO/NOLTE
AVIATION...CB
FIRE WEATHER...MO












000
FXUS65 KPSR 292346 AAA
AFDPSR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PHOENIX AZ
445 PM MST MON SEP 29 2014

.UPDATE...UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
DRY NORTHWEST FLOW WILL ESTABLISH ITSELF OVER THE AREA THIS
WEEK...KEEPING SKIES MOSTLY CLEAR AND RAINFALL CHANCES NIL.
TEMPERATURES WILL BEGIN THE WEEK SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL AND GRADUALLY
WARM THROUGH THE WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE STRENGTHENS OVER THE WEST.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
A DEEP UPPER LOW CONTINUES TO SPIN OVER THE GREAT BASIN...ONLY
GRADUALLY TRANSLATING EASTWARD WITH ONE NOTABLE PV ANOMALY
PROPAGATING INTO THE FOUR CORNERS AREA. ASSOCIATED WITH THIS
NEGATIVE PV ANOMALY WAS A H5 -16C COLD CORE AND STRONGLY DIFLUENT
JET SIGNATURE FORCING DEEP CONVECTION ACROSS NORTHERN NEW MEXICO AND
COLORADO. LOCALLY...STRONG SUBSIDENT NORTHWEST FLOW BEHIND THE WAVE
WAS RAPIDLY ENVELOPING THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA YIELDING CLEAR SKIES
AND DEEPER MIXING OF DRY AIR THROUGHOUT THE BOUNDARY LAYER. DESPITE
SOME NEAR SFC MOISTENING OVERNIGHT DUE TO WET GROUND AND
DECOUPLING...OVERNIGHT LOWS TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY MORNING APPEAR
VERY SIMILAR (NEAR PERSISTENCE) TO THE PLEASANT CONDITIONS
EXPERIENCED THIS MORNING.

THE AFOREMENTIONED UPPER LOW WILL EJECT INTO THE CNTRL/NRN PLAINS
TUESDAY...ALTHOUGH PREVAILING WEAKNESS IN THE HEIGHT FIELDS ALOFT
WILL ALLOW FOR PROGRESSIVE NORTHEAST PACIFIC SHORTWAVE ENERGY TO
DESCEND TOWARDS THE SWRN CONUS REINFORCING MODEST H5 HEIGHTS AND
WEAK CAA IN THE H8-H5 LAYER. UPSTREAM HIGHER AMPLITUDE FLOW WILL
PROMOTE SFC PRESSURE RISES THROUGHOUT THE GREAT BASIN...THOUGH MODEL
THETA-E FORECASTS SUGGEST THE LOW LEVEL COLD FRONTAL PUSH WILL STALL
OVER NRN ARIZONA. THUS...TEMPERATURE FORECASTS DEPICT ONLY A VERY
SLOW WARMING TREND...SCALING BACK SOMEWHAT ON TYPICALLY BEST
PERFORMING GUIDANCE TOWARDS HISTORICAL BIASES OF MODELS TYPICALLY
WARMING TOO FAST FOLLOWING THE FIRST AIRMASS CHANGE OF THE AUTUMN
SEASON.

BY FRIDAY...RIDGING OFF THE PACIFIC WILL TRANSITION OVER THE WESTERN
CONUS WITH 1000-500MB THICKNESSES PEAKING IN THE LOW 580DM RANGE AND
850MB TEMPS CLIMBING NEAR 24C FOR THE AFTERNOONS THROUGH THE EARLY
WEEKEND. 100F DEGREE READINGS WILL PERSIST OUT WEST AND POSSIBLY
MAKING A RETURN OVER THE SOUTH-CENTRAL AZ DESERTS. OVER THE LAST
NORMAL PERIOD (1981-2010) THE AVERAGE LAST DAY WE`VE SEEN 100F IN
PHOENIX FALLS ON OCT 3RD...AND OCT 5TH FOR YUMA. WHERE THE AFTERNOONS
MAY SEEM WARM TO SOME...THE MORNINGS WILL BE MILD AND CLOSER TOWARD
NORMAL READINGS. BY THE LATE WEEKEND/EARLY NEXT WEEK...RIDGE HEIGHTS
LOOK TO LOWER AND FLATTEN AS THE ACTIVE STORM PATTERN OVER THE
NORTHERN PACIFIC APPROACHES WESTERN NORTH AMERICA. OUTSIDE OF SOME
SLIGHT COOLING POTENTIAL FOR TEMPERATURES...CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY
REMAIN DRY WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT DIURNALLY DRIVEN WINDS.

&&

.AVIATION...
SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA INCLUDING KPHX...KIWA...AND KSDL...AND
SOUTHWEST ARIZONA AND SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA INCLUDING KIPL AND KBLH...

VERY WEAK LOW/MID LEVEL GRADIENTS AND CLEAR SKIES WILL LEAD TO VERY
LIGHT AND SOMEWHAT DIURNAL WINDS ACROSS THE DESERTS OVER THE NEXT 24
HOURS. WINDS AT THE TAF SITES WILL OFTEN BE LIGHT/VARIABLE AOB 5KT.
CLEAR SKIES TONIGHT SHOULD HELP TO SET UP FAVORABLE DRAINAGE
CONDITIONS AND CONTRIBUTE TO WINDS TURNING BACK TOWARDS THE EAST OR
SOUTHEAST AT KPHX AND KIWA AFTER 06Z...BUT SPEEDS WILL BE LIGHT.

NO AVIATION ISSUES AT ANY TERMINAL THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING AT LEAST.

AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDED TAFS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY...
WITH VIRTUALLY NO CHANCE OF RAINFALL THROUGH THE
PERIOD...TEMPERATURES WILL BE MAINTAINED IN A SLIGHTLY ABOVE AVERAGE
CATEGORY. MINIMUM HUMIDITY LEVELS WILL REMAIN RELATIVELY STEADY
THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD...DROPPING INTO THE TEENS ACROSS LOWER
ELEVATIONS. OVERNIGHT RECOVERY WILL BE GOOD. WINDS WILL BE
UNSEASONABLY LIGHT WITH OCCASIONAL AFTERNOON BREEZINESS IN UPSLOPE
AREAS.

&&

.PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

AZ...NONE.

CA...NONE.

&&

$$

VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/PHOENIX

DISCUSSION...MO/NOLTE
AVIATION...CB
FIRE WEATHER...MO












000
FXUS65 KPSR 292346 AAA
AFDPSR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PHOENIX AZ
445 PM MST MON SEP 29 2014

.UPDATE...UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
DRY NORTHWEST FLOW WILL ESTABLISH ITSELF OVER THE AREA THIS
WEEK...KEEPING SKIES MOSTLY CLEAR AND RAINFALL CHANCES NIL.
TEMPERATURES WILL BEGIN THE WEEK SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL AND GRADUALLY
WARM THROUGH THE WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE STRENGTHENS OVER THE WEST.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
A DEEP UPPER LOW CONTINUES TO SPIN OVER THE GREAT BASIN...ONLY
GRADUALLY TRANSLATING EASTWARD WITH ONE NOTABLE PV ANOMALY
PROPAGATING INTO THE FOUR CORNERS AREA. ASSOCIATED WITH THIS
NEGATIVE PV ANOMALY WAS A H5 -16C COLD CORE AND STRONGLY DIFLUENT
JET SIGNATURE FORCING DEEP CONVECTION ACROSS NORTHERN NEW MEXICO AND
COLORADO. LOCALLY...STRONG SUBSIDENT NORTHWEST FLOW BEHIND THE WAVE
WAS RAPIDLY ENVELOPING THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA YIELDING CLEAR SKIES
AND DEEPER MIXING OF DRY AIR THROUGHOUT THE BOUNDARY LAYER. DESPITE
SOME NEAR SFC MOISTENING OVERNIGHT DUE TO WET GROUND AND
DECOUPLING...OVERNIGHT LOWS TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY MORNING APPEAR
VERY SIMILAR (NEAR PERSISTENCE) TO THE PLEASANT CONDITIONS
EXPERIENCED THIS MORNING.

THE AFOREMENTIONED UPPER LOW WILL EJECT INTO THE CNTRL/NRN PLAINS
TUESDAY...ALTHOUGH PREVAILING WEAKNESS IN THE HEIGHT FIELDS ALOFT
WILL ALLOW FOR PROGRESSIVE NORTHEAST PACIFIC SHORTWAVE ENERGY TO
DESCEND TOWARDS THE SWRN CONUS REINFORCING MODEST H5 HEIGHTS AND
WEAK CAA IN THE H8-H5 LAYER. UPSTREAM HIGHER AMPLITUDE FLOW WILL
PROMOTE SFC PRESSURE RISES THROUGHOUT THE GREAT BASIN...THOUGH MODEL
THETA-E FORECASTS SUGGEST THE LOW LEVEL COLD FRONTAL PUSH WILL STALL
OVER NRN ARIZONA. THUS...TEMPERATURE FORECASTS DEPICT ONLY A VERY
SLOW WARMING TREND...SCALING BACK SOMEWHAT ON TYPICALLY BEST
PERFORMING GUIDANCE TOWARDS HISTORICAL BIASES OF MODELS TYPICALLY
WARMING TOO FAST FOLLOWING THE FIRST AIRMASS CHANGE OF THE AUTUMN
SEASON.

BY FRIDAY...RIDGING OFF THE PACIFIC WILL TRANSITION OVER THE WESTERN
CONUS WITH 1000-500MB THICKNESSES PEAKING IN THE LOW 580DM RANGE AND
850MB TEMPS CLIMBING NEAR 24C FOR THE AFTERNOONS THROUGH THE EARLY
WEEKEND. 100F DEGREE READINGS WILL PERSIST OUT WEST AND POSSIBLY
MAKING A RETURN OVER THE SOUTH-CENTRAL AZ DESERTS. OVER THE LAST
NORMAL PERIOD (1981-2010) THE AVERAGE LAST DAY WE`VE SEEN 100F IN
PHOENIX FALLS ON OCT 3RD...AND OCT 5TH FOR YUMA. WHERE THE AFTERNOONS
MAY SEEM WARM TO SOME...THE MORNINGS WILL BE MILD AND CLOSER TOWARD
NORMAL READINGS. BY THE LATE WEEKEND/EARLY NEXT WEEK...RIDGE HEIGHTS
LOOK TO LOWER AND FLATTEN AS THE ACTIVE STORM PATTERN OVER THE
NORTHERN PACIFIC APPROACHES WESTERN NORTH AMERICA. OUTSIDE OF SOME
SLIGHT COOLING POTENTIAL FOR TEMPERATURES...CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY
REMAIN DRY WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT DIURNALLY DRIVEN WINDS.

&&

.AVIATION...
SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA INCLUDING KPHX...KIWA...AND KSDL...AND
SOUTHWEST ARIZONA AND SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA INCLUDING KIPL AND KBLH...

VERY WEAK LOW/MID LEVEL GRADIENTS AND CLEAR SKIES WILL LEAD TO VERY
LIGHT AND SOMEWHAT DIURNAL WINDS ACROSS THE DESERTS OVER THE NEXT 24
HOURS. WINDS AT THE TAF SITES WILL OFTEN BE LIGHT/VARIABLE AOB 5KT.
CLEAR SKIES TONIGHT SHOULD HELP TO SET UP FAVORABLE DRAINAGE
CONDITIONS AND CONTRIBUTE TO WINDS TURNING BACK TOWARDS THE EAST OR
SOUTHEAST AT KPHX AND KIWA AFTER 06Z...BUT SPEEDS WILL BE LIGHT.

NO AVIATION ISSUES AT ANY TERMINAL THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING AT LEAST.

AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDED TAFS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY...
WITH VIRTUALLY NO CHANCE OF RAINFALL THROUGH THE
PERIOD...TEMPERATURES WILL BE MAINTAINED IN A SLIGHTLY ABOVE AVERAGE
CATEGORY. MINIMUM HUMIDITY LEVELS WILL REMAIN RELATIVELY STEADY
THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD...DROPPING INTO THE TEENS ACROSS LOWER
ELEVATIONS. OVERNIGHT RECOVERY WILL BE GOOD. WINDS WILL BE
UNSEASONABLY LIGHT WITH OCCASIONAL AFTERNOON BREEZINESS IN UPSLOPE
AREAS.

&&

.PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

AZ...NONE.

CA...NONE.

&&

$$

VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/PHOENIX

DISCUSSION...MO/NOLTE
AVIATION...CB
FIRE WEATHER...MO












000
FXUS65 KFGZ 292228
AFDFGZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ
330 PM MST MON SEP 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...COOL DRY AIR WILL MOVE IN FROM THE WEST AS THE LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM EXITS THE REGION. EXPECT COOLER NIGHTS WITH LITTLE
PRECIPITATION FORECAST THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK. A WEAK
TROUGH WILL BRUSH THROUGH UTAH ON WEDNESDAY WITH HIGHER CLOUD COVER
AND SLIGHT CHANCES FOR LIGHT SHOWERS OVER THE UTAH BORDER REGION.
THE PACIFIC RIDGE WILL BUILD INTO ARIZONA ON FRIDAY WITH WARMER HIGH
TEMPERATURES FORECAST THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEKEND.

&&

.DISCUSSION...A LARGE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM CUT-OFF FROM THE POLAR
FRONT JET WILL CONTINUE TO DRIFT EASTWARD THROUGH UTAH THIS EVENING.
SHOWER ACTIVITY ALONG THE UTAH AND NEW MEXICO BORDER WILL DIMINISH
AFTER SUNSET. DRIER WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT HAS FIRMLY REPLACED THE
MOIST SOUTHERLY FLOW PATTERN. THE DRIER FALL CONDITIONS AND CLEAR
SKIES WILL LEAD TO OVERNIGHT AND MORNING TEMPERATURES APPROACHING
FREEZING IN PORTIONS OF THE HIGH COUNTRY.

WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...ANOTHER WEAK TROUGH MOVING THROUGH UTAH
ON WEDNESDAY WILL BRING SLIGHT CHANCES FOR LIGHT SHOWERS TO THE UTAH
BORDER REGION. ELSEWHERE DRY CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH MUCH OF
THE UPCOMING WORK WEEK. BY FRIDAY...THE PACIFIC RIDGE WILL BUILD
INTO ARIZONA WARMING UP OUR HIGH TEMPERATURES IN NORTHERN ARIZONA BY
AROUND 5 DEGREES FAHRENHEIT. THESE WARMER DAY TIME TEMPERATURES
ALONG WITH SUNNY SKIES WILL PERSIST FROM FRIDAY INTO THE UPCOMING
WEEKEND. A GREAT WEEKEND FOR OUTDOOR ACTIVITIES.

&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 00Z PACKAGE...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST FOR
THE NEXT 24 HOURS WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES. BREEZY WEST WINDS WILL
DECREASE RAPIDLY BY 01Z-02Z THIS EVENING...WITH GENERALLY LIGHT SW-W
WINDS TUE AFTERNOON. AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDMENTS.

&&

.FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC.........BOHLIN
AVIATION.......JJ

FOR NORTHERN ARIZONA WEATHER INFORMATION VISIT
WEATHER.GOV/FLAGSTAFF









000
FXUS65 KFGZ 292228
AFDFGZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ
330 PM MST MON SEP 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...COOL DRY AIR WILL MOVE IN FROM THE WEST AS THE LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM EXITS THE REGION. EXPECT COOLER NIGHTS WITH LITTLE
PRECIPITATION FORECAST THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK. A WEAK
TROUGH WILL BRUSH THROUGH UTAH ON WEDNESDAY WITH HIGHER CLOUD COVER
AND SLIGHT CHANCES FOR LIGHT SHOWERS OVER THE UTAH BORDER REGION.
THE PACIFIC RIDGE WILL BUILD INTO ARIZONA ON FRIDAY WITH WARMER HIGH
TEMPERATURES FORECAST THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEKEND.

&&

.DISCUSSION...A LARGE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM CUT-OFF FROM THE POLAR
FRONT JET WILL CONTINUE TO DRIFT EASTWARD THROUGH UTAH THIS EVENING.
SHOWER ACTIVITY ALONG THE UTAH AND NEW MEXICO BORDER WILL DIMINISH
AFTER SUNSET. DRIER WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT HAS FIRMLY REPLACED THE
MOIST SOUTHERLY FLOW PATTERN. THE DRIER FALL CONDITIONS AND CLEAR
SKIES WILL LEAD TO OVERNIGHT AND MORNING TEMPERATURES APPROACHING
FREEZING IN PORTIONS OF THE HIGH COUNTRY.

WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...ANOTHER WEAK TROUGH MOVING THROUGH UTAH
ON WEDNESDAY WILL BRING SLIGHT CHANCES FOR LIGHT SHOWERS TO THE UTAH
BORDER REGION. ELSEWHERE DRY CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH MUCH OF
THE UPCOMING WORK WEEK. BY FRIDAY...THE PACIFIC RIDGE WILL BUILD
INTO ARIZONA WARMING UP OUR HIGH TEMPERATURES IN NORTHERN ARIZONA BY
AROUND 5 DEGREES FAHRENHEIT. THESE WARMER DAY TIME TEMPERATURES
ALONG WITH SUNNY SKIES WILL PERSIST FROM FRIDAY INTO THE UPCOMING
WEEKEND. A GREAT WEEKEND FOR OUTDOOR ACTIVITIES.

&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 00Z PACKAGE...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST FOR
THE NEXT 24 HOURS WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES. BREEZY WEST WINDS WILL
DECREASE RAPIDLY BY 01Z-02Z THIS EVENING...WITH GENERALLY LIGHT SW-W
WINDS TUE AFTERNOON. AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDMENTS.

&&

.FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC.........BOHLIN
AVIATION.......JJ

FOR NORTHERN ARIZONA WEATHER INFORMATION VISIT
WEATHER.GOV/FLAGSTAFF










000
FXUS65 KPSR 292134
AFDPSR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PHOENIX AZ
230 PM MST MON SEP 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
DRY NORTHWEST FLOW WILL ESTABLISH ITSELF OVER THE AREA THIS
WEEK...KEEPING SKIES MOSTLY CLEAR AND RAINFALL CHANCES NIL.
TEMPERATURES WILL BEGIN THE WEEK SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL AND GRADUALLY
WARM THROUGH THE WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE STRENGTHENS OVER THE WEST.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
A DEEP UPPER LOW CONTINUES TO SPIN OVER THE GREAT BASIN...ONLY
GRADUALLY TRANSLATING EASTWARD WITH ONE NOTABLE PV ANOMALY
PROPAGATING INTO THE FOUR CORNERS AREA. ASSOCIATED WITH THIS
NEGATIVE PV ANOMALY WAS A H5 -16C COLD CORE AND STRONGLY DIFLUENT
JET SIGNATURE FORCING DEEP CONVECTION ACROSS NORTHERN NEW MEXICO AND
COLORADO. LOCALLY...STRONG SUBSIDENT NORTHWEST FLOW BEHIND THE WAVE
WAS RAPIDLY ENVELOPING THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA YIELDING CLEAR SKIES
AND DEEPER MIXING OF DRY AIR THROUGHOUT THE BOUNDARY LAYER. DESPITE
SOME NEAR SFC MOISTENING OVERNIGHT DUE TO WET GROUND AND
DECOUPLING...OVERNIGHT LOWS TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY MORNING APPEAR
VERY SIMILAR (NEAR PERSISTENCE) TO THE PLEASANT CONDITIONS
EXPERIENCED THIS MORNING.

THE AFOREMENTIONED UPPER LOW WILL EJECT INTO THE CNTRL/NRN PLAINS
TUESDAY...ALTHOUGH PREVAILING WEAKNESS IN THE HEIGHT FIELDS ALOFT
WILL ALLOW FOR PROGRESSIVE NORTHEAST PACIFIC SHORTWAVE ENERGY TO
DESCEND TOWARDS THE SWRN CONUS REINFORCING MODEST H5 HEIGHTS AND
WEAK CAA IN THE H8-H5 LAYER. UPSTREAM HIGHER AMPLITUDE FLOW WILL
PROMOTE SFC PRESSURE RISES THROUGHOUT THE GREAT BASIN...THOUGH MODEL
THETA-E FORECASTS SUGGEST THE LOW LEVEL COLD FRONTAL PUSH WILL STALL
OVER NRN ARIZONA. THUS...TEMPERATURE FORECASTS DEPICT ONLY A VERY
SLOW WARMING TREND...SCALING BACK SOMEWHAT ON TYPICALLY BEST
PERFORMING GUIDANCE TOWARDS HISTORICAL BIASES OF MODELS TYPICALLY
WARMING TOO FAST FOLLOWING THE FIRST AIRMASS CHANGE OF THE AUTUMN
SEASON.

BY FRIDAY...RIDGING OFF THE PACIFIC WILL TRANSITION OVER THE WESTERN
CONUS WITH 1000-500MB THICKNESSES PEAKING IN THE LOW 580DM RANGE AND
850MB TEMPS CLIMBING NEAR 24C FOR THE AFTERNOONS THROUGH THE EARLY
WEEKEND. 100F DEGREE READINGS WILL PERSIST OUT WEST AND POSSIBLY
MAKING A RETURN OVER THE SOUTH-CENTRAL AZ DESERTS. OVER THE LAST
NORMAL PERIOD (1981-2010) THE AVERAGE LAST DAY WE`VE SEEN 100F IN
PHOENIX FALLS ON OCT 3RD...AND OCT 5TH FOR YUMA. WHERE THE AFTERNOONS
MAY SEEM WARM TO SOME...THE MORNINGS WILL BE MILD AND CLOSER TOWARD
NORMAL READINGS. BY THE LATE WEEKEND/EARLY NEXT WEEK...RIDGE HEIGHTS
LOOK TO LOWER AND FLATTEN AS THE ACTIVE STORM PATTERN OVER THE
NORTHERN PACIFIC APPROACHES WESTERN NORTH AMERICA. OUTSIDE OF SOME
SLIGHT COOLING POTENTIAL FOR TEMPERATURES...CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY
REMAIN DRY WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT DIURNALLY DRIVEN WINDS.

&&

.AVIATION...
SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA INCLUDING KPHX...KIWA...AND KSDL...AND
SOUTHWEST ARIZONA AND SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA INCLUDING KIPL AND KBLH...

NO AVIATION IMPACTS THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON. SKIES WILL REMAIN
ALMOST ENTIRELY CLEAR...WITH VERY LIGHT WINDS FOLLOWING TYPICAL
DIURNAL DIRECTIONAL TRENDS. LIGHT AND VARIABLE OR CALM WINDS WILL
BE COMMON FOR PROLONGED PERIODS.

AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDED TAFS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY...
WITH VIRTUALLY NO CHANCE OF RAINFALL THROUGH THE
PERIOD...TEMPERATURES WILL BE MAINTAINED IN A SLIGHTLY ABOVE AVERAGE
CATEGORY. MINIMUM HUMIDITY LEVELS WILL REMAIN RELATIVELY STEADY
THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD...DROPPING INTO THE TEENS ACROSS LOWER
ELEVATIONS. OVERNIGHT RECOVERY WILL BE GOOD. WINDS WILL BE
UNSEASONABLY LIGHT WITH OCCASIONAL AFTERNOON BREEZINESS IN UPSLOPE
AREAS.

&&

.PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

AZ...NONE.

CA...NONE.

&&

$$

VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/PHOENIX

DISCUSSION...MO/NOLTE
AVIATION...MO
FIRE WEATHER...MO










000
FXUS65 KPSR 292134
AFDPSR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PHOENIX AZ
230 PM MST MON SEP 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
DRY NORTHWEST FLOW WILL ESTABLISH ITSELF OVER THE AREA THIS
WEEK...KEEPING SKIES MOSTLY CLEAR AND RAINFALL CHANCES NIL.
TEMPERATURES WILL BEGIN THE WEEK SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL AND GRADUALLY
WARM THROUGH THE WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE STRENGTHENS OVER THE WEST.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
A DEEP UPPER LOW CONTINUES TO SPIN OVER THE GREAT BASIN...ONLY
GRADUALLY TRANSLATING EASTWARD WITH ONE NOTABLE PV ANOMALY
PROPAGATING INTO THE FOUR CORNERS AREA. ASSOCIATED WITH THIS
NEGATIVE PV ANOMALY WAS A H5 -16C COLD CORE AND STRONGLY DIFLUENT
JET SIGNATURE FORCING DEEP CONVECTION ACROSS NORTHERN NEW MEXICO AND
COLORADO. LOCALLY...STRONG SUBSIDENT NORTHWEST FLOW BEHIND THE WAVE
WAS RAPIDLY ENVELOPING THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA YIELDING CLEAR SKIES
AND DEEPER MIXING OF DRY AIR THROUGHOUT THE BOUNDARY LAYER. DESPITE
SOME NEAR SFC MOISTENING OVERNIGHT DUE TO WET GROUND AND
DECOUPLING...OVERNIGHT LOWS TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY MORNING APPEAR
VERY SIMILAR (NEAR PERSISTENCE) TO THE PLEASANT CONDITIONS
EXPERIENCED THIS MORNING.

THE AFOREMENTIONED UPPER LOW WILL EJECT INTO THE CNTRL/NRN PLAINS
TUESDAY...ALTHOUGH PREVAILING WEAKNESS IN THE HEIGHT FIELDS ALOFT
WILL ALLOW FOR PROGRESSIVE NORTHEAST PACIFIC SHORTWAVE ENERGY TO
DESCEND TOWARDS THE SWRN CONUS REINFORCING MODEST H5 HEIGHTS AND
WEAK CAA IN THE H8-H5 LAYER. UPSTREAM HIGHER AMPLITUDE FLOW WILL
PROMOTE SFC PRESSURE RISES THROUGHOUT THE GREAT BASIN...THOUGH MODEL
THETA-E FORECASTS SUGGEST THE LOW LEVEL COLD FRONTAL PUSH WILL STALL
OVER NRN ARIZONA. THUS...TEMPERATURE FORECASTS DEPICT ONLY A VERY
SLOW WARMING TREND...SCALING BACK SOMEWHAT ON TYPICALLY BEST
PERFORMING GUIDANCE TOWARDS HISTORICAL BIASES OF MODELS TYPICALLY
WARMING TOO FAST FOLLOWING THE FIRST AIRMASS CHANGE OF THE AUTUMN
SEASON.

BY FRIDAY...RIDGING OFF THE PACIFIC WILL TRANSITION OVER THE WESTERN
CONUS WITH 1000-500MB THICKNESSES PEAKING IN THE LOW 580DM RANGE AND
850MB TEMPS CLIMBING NEAR 24C FOR THE AFTERNOONS THROUGH THE EARLY
WEEKEND. 100F DEGREE READINGS WILL PERSIST OUT WEST AND POSSIBLY
MAKING A RETURN OVER THE SOUTH-CENTRAL AZ DESERTS. OVER THE LAST
NORMAL PERIOD (1981-2010) THE AVERAGE LAST DAY WE`VE SEEN 100F IN
PHOENIX FALLS ON OCT 3RD...AND OCT 5TH FOR YUMA. WHERE THE AFTERNOONS
MAY SEEM WARM TO SOME...THE MORNINGS WILL BE MILD AND CLOSER TOWARD
NORMAL READINGS. BY THE LATE WEEKEND/EARLY NEXT WEEK...RIDGE HEIGHTS
LOOK TO LOWER AND FLATTEN AS THE ACTIVE STORM PATTERN OVER THE
NORTHERN PACIFIC APPROACHES WESTERN NORTH AMERICA. OUTSIDE OF SOME
SLIGHT COOLING POTENTIAL FOR TEMPERATURES...CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY
REMAIN DRY WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT DIURNALLY DRIVEN WINDS.

&&

.AVIATION...
SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA INCLUDING KPHX...KIWA...AND KSDL...AND
SOUTHWEST ARIZONA AND SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA INCLUDING KIPL AND KBLH...

NO AVIATION IMPACTS THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON. SKIES WILL REMAIN
ALMOST ENTIRELY CLEAR...WITH VERY LIGHT WINDS FOLLOWING TYPICAL
DIURNAL DIRECTIONAL TRENDS. LIGHT AND VARIABLE OR CALM WINDS WILL
BE COMMON FOR PROLONGED PERIODS.

AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDED TAFS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY...
WITH VIRTUALLY NO CHANCE OF RAINFALL THROUGH THE
PERIOD...TEMPERATURES WILL BE MAINTAINED IN A SLIGHTLY ABOVE AVERAGE
CATEGORY. MINIMUM HUMIDITY LEVELS WILL REMAIN RELATIVELY STEADY
THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD...DROPPING INTO THE TEENS ACROSS LOWER
ELEVATIONS. OVERNIGHT RECOVERY WILL BE GOOD. WINDS WILL BE
UNSEASONABLY LIGHT WITH OCCASIONAL AFTERNOON BREEZINESS IN UPSLOPE
AREAS.

&&

.PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

AZ...NONE.

CA...NONE.

&&

$$

VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/PHOENIX

DISCUSSION...MO/NOLTE
AVIATION...MO
FIRE WEATHER...MO










000
FXUS65 KPSR 292134
AFDPSR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PHOENIX AZ
230 PM MST MON SEP 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
DRY NORTHWEST FLOW WILL ESTABLISH ITSELF OVER THE AREA THIS
WEEK...KEEPING SKIES MOSTLY CLEAR AND RAINFALL CHANCES NIL.
TEMPERATURES WILL BEGIN THE WEEK SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL AND GRADUALLY
WARM THROUGH THE WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE STRENGTHENS OVER THE WEST.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
A DEEP UPPER LOW CONTINUES TO SPIN OVER THE GREAT BASIN...ONLY
GRADUALLY TRANSLATING EASTWARD WITH ONE NOTABLE PV ANOMALY
PROPAGATING INTO THE FOUR CORNERS AREA. ASSOCIATED WITH THIS
NEGATIVE PV ANOMALY WAS A H5 -16C COLD CORE AND STRONGLY DIFLUENT
JET SIGNATURE FORCING DEEP CONVECTION ACROSS NORTHERN NEW MEXICO AND
COLORADO. LOCALLY...STRONG SUBSIDENT NORTHWEST FLOW BEHIND THE WAVE
WAS RAPIDLY ENVELOPING THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA YIELDING CLEAR SKIES
AND DEEPER MIXING OF DRY AIR THROUGHOUT THE BOUNDARY LAYER. DESPITE
SOME NEAR SFC MOISTENING OVERNIGHT DUE TO WET GROUND AND
DECOUPLING...OVERNIGHT LOWS TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY MORNING APPEAR
VERY SIMILAR (NEAR PERSISTENCE) TO THE PLEASANT CONDITIONS
EXPERIENCED THIS MORNING.

THE AFOREMENTIONED UPPER LOW WILL EJECT INTO THE CNTRL/NRN PLAINS
TUESDAY...ALTHOUGH PREVAILING WEAKNESS IN THE HEIGHT FIELDS ALOFT
WILL ALLOW FOR PROGRESSIVE NORTHEAST PACIFIC SHORTWAVE ENERGY TO
DESCEND TOWARDS THE SWRN CONUS REINFORCING MODEST H5 HEIGHTS AND
WEAK CAA IN THE H8-H5 LAYER. UPSTREAM HIGHER AMPLITUDE FLOW WILL
PROMOTE SFC PRESSURE RISES THROUGHOUT THE GREAT BASIN...THOUGH MODEL
THETA-E FORECASTS SUGGEST THE LOW LEVEL COLD FRONTAL PUSH WILL STALL
OVER NRN ARIZONA. THUS...TEMPERATURE FORECASTS DEPICT ONLY A VERY
SLOW WARMING TREND...SCALING BACK SOMEWHAT ON TYPICALLY BEST
PERFORMING GUIDANCE TOWARDS HISTORICAL BIASES OF MODELS TYPICALLY
WARMING TOO FAST FOLLOWING THE FIRST AIRMASS CHANGE OF THE AUTUMN
SEASON.

BY FRIDAY...RIDGING OFF THE PACIFIC WILL TRANSITION OVER THE WESTERN
CONUS WITH 1000-500MB THICKNESSES PEAKING IN THE LOW 580DM RANGE AND
850MB TEMPS CLIMBING NEAR 24C FOR THE AFTERNOONS THROUGH THE EARLY
WEEKEND. 100F DEGREE READINGS WILL PERSIST OUT WEST AND POSSIBLY
MAKING A RETURN OVER THE SOUTH-CENTRAL AZ DESERTS. OVER THE LAST
NORMAL PERIOD (1981-2010) THE AVERAGE LAST DAY WE`VE SEEN 100F IN
PHOENIX FALLS ON OCT 3RD...AND OCT 5TH FOR YUMA. WHERE THE AFTERNOONS
MAY SEEM WARM TO SOME...THE MORNINGS WILL BE MILD AND CLOSER TOWARD
NORMAL READINGS. BY THE LATE WEEKEND/EARLY NEXT WEEK...RIDGE HEIGHTS
LOOK TO LOWER AND FLATTEN AS THE ACTIVE STORM PATTERN OVER THE
NORTHERN PACIFIC APPROACHES WESTERN NORTH AMERICA. OUTSIDE OF SOME
SLIGHT COOLING POTENTIAL FOR TEMPERATURES...CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY
REMAIN DRY WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT DIURNALLY DRIVEN WINDS.

&&

.AVIATION...
SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA INCLUDING KPHX...KIWA...AND KSDL...AND
SOUTHWEST ARIZONA AND SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA INCLUDING KIPL AND KBLH...

NO AVIATION IMPACTS THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON. SKIES WILL REMAIN
ALMOST ENTIRELY CLEAR...WITH VERY LIGHT WINDS FOLLOWING TYPICAL
DIURNAL DIRECTIONAL TRENDS. LIGHT AND VARIABLE OR CALM WINDS WILL
BE COMMON FOR PROLONGED PERIODS.

AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDED TAFS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY...
WITH VIRTUALLY NO CHANCE OF RAINFALL THROUGH THE
PERIOD...TEMPERATURES WILL BE MAINTAINED IN A SLIGHTLY ABOVE AVERAGE
CATEGORY. MINIMUM HUMIDITY LEVELS WILL REMAIN RELATIVELY STEADY
THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD...DROPPING INTO THE TEENS ACROSS LOWER
ELEVATIONS. OVERNIGHT RECOVERY WILL BE GOOD. WINDS WILL BE
UNSEASONABLY LIGHT WITH OCCASIONAL AFTERNOON BREEZINESS IN UPSLOPE
AREAS.

&&

.PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

AZ...NONE.

CA...NONE.

&&

$$

VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/PHOENIX

DISCUSSION...MO/NOLTE
AVIATION...MO
FIRE WEATHER...MO










000
FXUS65 KPSR 292134
AFDPSR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PHOENIX AZ
230 PM MST MON SEP 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
DRY NORTHWEST FLOW WILL ESTABLISH ITSELF OVER THE AREA THIS
WEEK...KEEPING SKIES MOSTLY CLEAR AND RAINFALL CHANCES NIL.
TEMPERATURES WILL BEGIN THE WEEK SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL AND GRADUALLY
WARM THROUGH THE WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE STRENGTHENS OVER THE WEST.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
A DEEP UPPER LOW CONTINUES TO SPIN OVER THE GREAT BASIN...ONLY
GRADUALLY TRANSLATING EASTWARD WITH ONE NOTABLE PV ANOMALY
PROPAGATING INTO THE FOUR CORNERS AREA. ASSOCIATED WITH THIS
NEGATIVE PV ANOMALY WAS A H5 -16C COLD CORE AND STRONGLY DIFLUENT
JET SIGNATURE FORCING DEEP CONVECTION ACROSS NORTHERN NEW MEXICO AND
COLORADO. LOCALLY...STRONG SUBSIDENT NORTHWEST FLOW BEHIND THE WAVE
WAS RAPIDLY ENVELOPING THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA YIELDING CLEAR SKIES
AND DEEPER MIXING OF DRY AIR THROUGHOUT THE BOUNDARY LAYER. DESPITE
SOME NEAR SFC MOISTENING OVERNIGHT DUE TO WET GROUND AND
DECOUPLING...OVERNIGHT LOWS TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY MORNING APPEAR
VERY SIMILAR (NEAR PERSISTENCE) TO THE PLEASANT CONDITIONS
EXPERIENCED THIS MORNING.

THE AFOREMENTIONED UPPER LOW WILL EJECT INTO THE CNTRL/NRN PLAINS
TUESDAY...ALTHOUGH PREVAILING WEAKNESS IN THE HEIGHT FIELDS ALOFT
WILL ALLOW FOR PROGRESSIVE NORTHEAST PACIFIC SHORTWAVE ENERGY TO
DESCEND TOWARDS THE SWRN CONUS REINFORCING MODEST H5 HEIGHTS AND
WEAK CAA IN THE H8-H5 LAYER. UPSTREAM HIGHER AMPLITUDE FLOW WILL
PROMOTE SFC PRESSURE RISES THROUGHOUT THE GREAT BASIN...THOUGH MODEL
THETA-E FORECASTS SUGGEST THE LOW LEVEL COLD FRONTAL PUSH WILL STALL
OVER NRN ARIZONA. THUS...TEMPERATURE FORECASTS DEPICT ONLY A VERY
SLOW WARMING TREND...SCALING BACK SOMEWHAT ON TYPICALLY BEST
PERFORMING GUIDANCE TOWARDS HISTORICAL BIASES OF MODELS TYPICALLY
WARMING TOO FAST FOLLOWING THE FIRST AIRMASS CHANGE OF THE AUTUMN
SEASON.

BY FRIDAY...RIDGING OFF THE PACIFIC WILL TRANSITION OVER THE WESTERN
CONUS WITH 1000-500MB THICKNESSES PEAKING IN THE LOW 580DM RANGE AND
850MB TEMPS CLIMBING NEAR 24C FOR THE AFTERNOONS THROUGH THE EARLY
WEEKEND. 100F DEGREE READINGS WILL PERSIST OUT WEST AND POSSIBLY
MAKING A RETURN OVER THE SOUTH-CENTRAL AZ DESERTS. OVER THE LAST
NORMAL PERIOD (1981-2010) THE AVERAGE LAST DAY WE`VE SEEN 100F IN
PHOENIX FALLS ON OCT 3RD...AND OCT 5TH FOR YUMA. WHERE THE AFTERNOONS
MAY SEEM WARM TO SOME...THE MORNINGS WILL BE MILD AND CLOSER TOWARD
NORMAL READINGS. BY THE LATE WEEKEND/EARLY NEXT WEEK...RIDGE HEIGHTS
LOOK TO LOWER AND FLATTEN AS THE ACTIVE STORM PATTERN OVER THE
NORTHERN PACIFIC APPROACHES WESTERN NORTH AMERICA. OUTSIDE OF SOME
SLIGHT COOLING POTENTIAL FOR TEMPERATURES...CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY
REMAIN DRY WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT DIURNALLY DRIVEN WINDS.

&&

.AVIATION...
SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA INCLUDING KPHX...KIWA...AND KSDL...AND
SOUTHWEST ARIZONA AND SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA INCLUDING KIPL AND KBLH...

NO AVIATION IMPACTS THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON. SKIES WILL REMAIN
ALMOST ENTIRELY CLEAR...WITH VERY LIGHT WINDS FOLLOWING TYPICAL
DIURNAL DIRECTIONAL TRENDS. LIGHT AND VARIABLE OR CALM WINDS WILL
BE COMMON FOR PROLONGED PERIODS.

AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDED TAFS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY...
WITH VIRTUALLY NO CHANCE OF RAINFALL THROUGH THE
PERIOD...TEMPERATURES WILL BE MAINTAINED IN A SLIGHTLY ABOVE AVERAGE
CATEGORY. MINIMUM HUMIDITY LEVELS WILL REMAIN RELATIVELY STEADY
THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD...DROPPING INTO THE TEENS ACROSS LOWER
ELEVATIONS. OVERNIGHT RECOVERY WILL BE GOOD. WINDS WILL BE
UNSEASONABLY LIGHT WITH OCCASIONAL AFTERNOON BREEZINESS IN UPSLOPE
AREAS.

&&

.PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

AZ...NONE.

CA...NONE.

&&

$$

VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/PHOENIX

DISCUSSION...MO/NOLTE
AVIATION...MO
FIRE WEATHER...MO










000
FXUS65 KTWC 292045
AFDTWC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ
145 PM MST MON SEP 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...DRY CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL INTO THIS WEEKEND. A GRADUAL
WARMING TREND WILL OCCUR ESPECIALLY DURING THE LATTER PART OF THE
WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT BUILDS OVER THE AREA.

&&

.DISCUSSION...UPPER LOW CENTERED OVER ERN IDAHO WITH MID-LEVEL
TROUGH AXIS EXTENDING SWD INTO SRN AZ THIS AFTERNOON. THE BULK OF
MOSTLY CUMULOFORM CLOUDS FROM TUCSON EWD WILL DISSIPATE THIS EVENING
AS THE MID-LEVEL TROUGH AXIS MOVES WELL EAST OF THE AREA...AND WITH
THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING. THUS...EXPECT DECREASING CLOUDS EARLY
THIS EVENING FOLLOWED BY CLEAR SKIES OR MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES THE REST
OF TONIGHT.

A BROAD UPPER TROUGH OVER THE WRN CONUS TUE WILL ADVANCE EWD INTO
THE ROCKIES AND CENTRAL CONUS PLAINS WED. A SHORTWAVE TROUGH MAY
BRING SOME SHOWERS ACROSS THE FOUR CORNERS REGION WED. THUS...ANY
RAINFALL ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN WELL NE
OF THIS FORECAST AREA. THEREAFTER...HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT IS PROGGED
TO AMPLIFY OVER THE SWRN CONUS THUR-MON. A SOMEWHAT TIGHT SURFACE
PRESSURE GRADIENT MAY PRODUCE LOCALLY GUSTY ELY WINDS THUR NIGHT-
FRI. OTHERWISE...CLEAR SKIES OR MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES WILL PREVAIL
THUR-MON.

HIGH TEMPS TUESDAY WILL BE NEARLY IDENTICAL TO TEMPS ACHIEVED THIS
AFTERNOON. A GRADUAL WARMING TREND WILL THEN OCCUR WED-FRI FOLLOWED
BY CONTINUED ABOVE NORMAL DAYTIME TEMPS THIS WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION...VALID THRU 01/00Z.
EXPECT SCATTERED TO BROKEN CLOUDS AT 3-10K FT AGL MAINLY EAST OF
KTUS THIS EVENING FOLLOWED BY CLEAR SKIES OR MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES LATE
TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY. SURFACE WIND EAST OF KTUS TUESDAY AFTERNOON
WILL BE WLY/NWLY 12-18 KTS WITH GUSTS TO 25 KTS. OTHERWISE...SURFACE
WIND WILL BE MAINLY LESS THAN 10 KTS THRU TUESDAY AFTERNOON.
AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR TAF AMENDMENTS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...DRY CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL INTO THIS WEEKEND.
DAYTIME MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITIES WILL LOWER THIS WEEK AS DRIER
AIR MOVES INTO THE REGION...ALTHOUGH GOOD OVERNIGHT RECOVERIES ARE
STILL EXPECTED. 20-FOOT WINDS ACROSS GRAHAM...GREENLEE AND COCHISE
COUNTIES TUESDAY AFTERNOON WILL BE WEST TO NORTHWEST AT 8-18 MPH.
OTHERWISE...20-FOOT WINDS WILL BE LESS THAN 15 MPH THROUGH THURSDAY.
LOCALLY GUSTY EAST WINDS MAY OCCUR FRIDAY.

&&

.TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.


&&

$$

VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...YOUTUBE...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/TUCSON

FRANCIS






000
FXUS65 KTWC 292045
AFDTWC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ
145 PM MST MON SEP 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...DRY CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL INTO THIS WEEKEND. A GRADUAL
WARMING TREND WILL OCCUR ESPECIALLY DURING THE LATTER PART OF THE
WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT BUILDS OVER THE AREA.

&&

.DISCUSSION...UPPER LOW CENTERED OVER ERN IDAHO WITH MID-LEVEL
TROUGH AXIS EXTENDING SWD INTO SRN AZ THIS AFTERNOON. THE BULK OF
MOSTLY CUMULOFORM CLOUDS FROM TUCSON EWD WILL DISSIPATE THIS EVENING
AS THE MID-LEVEL TROUGH AXIS MOVES WELL EAST OF THE AREA...AND WITH
THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING. THUS...EXPECT DECREASING CLOUDS EARLY
THIS EVENING FOLLOWED BY CLEAR SKIES OR MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES THE REST
OF TONIGHT.

A BROAD UPPER TROUGH OVER THE WRN CONUS TUE WILL ADVANCE EWD INTO
THE ROCKIES AND CENTRAL CONUS PLAINS WED. A SHORTWAVE TROUGH MAY
BRING SOME SHOWERS ACROSS THE FOUR CORNERS REGION WED. THUS...ANY
RAINFALL ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN WELL NE
OF THIS FORECAST AREA. THEREAFTER...HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT IS PROGGED
TO AMPLIFY OVER THE SWRN CONUS THUR-MON. A SOMEWHAT TIGHT SURFACE
PRESSURE GRADIENT MAY PRODUCE LOCALLY GUSTY ELY WINDS THUR NIGHT-
FRI. OTHERWISE...CLEAR SKIES OR MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES WILL PREVAIL
THUR-MON.

HIGH TEMPS TUESDAY WILL BE NEARLY IDENTICAL TO TEMPS ACHIEVED THIS
AFTERNOON. A GRADUAL WARMING TREND WILL THEN OCCUR WED-FRI FOLLOWED
BY CONTINUED ABOVE NORMAL DAYTIME TEMPS THIS WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION...VALID THRU 01/00Z.
EXPECT SCATTERED TO BROKEN CLOUDS AT 3-10K FT AGL MAINLY EAST OF
KTUS THIS EVENING FOLLOWED BY CLEAR SKIES OR MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES LATE
TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY. SURFACE WIND EAST OF KTUS TUESDAY AFTERNOON
WILL BE WLY/NWLY 12-18 KTS WITH GUSTS TO 25 KTS. OTHERWISE...SURFACE
WIND WILL BE MAINLY LESS THAN 10 KTS THRU TUESDAY AFTERNOON.
AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR TAF AMENDMENTS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...DRY CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL INTO THIS WEEKEND.
DAYTIME MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITIES WILL LOWER THIS WEEK AS DRIER
AIR MOVES INTO THE REGION...ALTHOUGH GOOD OVERNIGHT RECOVERIES ARE
STILL EXPECTED. 20-FOOT WINDS ACROSS GRAHAM...GREENLEE AND COCHISE
COUNTIES TUESDAY AFTERNOON WILL BE WEST TO NORTHWEST AT 8-18 MPH.
OTHERWISE...20-FOOT WINDS WILL BE LESS THAN 15 MPH THROUGH THURSDAY.
LOCALLY GUSTY EAST WINDS MAY OCCUR FRIDAY.

&&

.TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.


&&

$$

VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...YOUTUBE...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/TUCSON

FRANCIS





000
FXUS65 KPSR 291720
AFDPSR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PHOENIX AZ
1015 AM MST MON SEP 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
DRY AND STABLE WEST TO NORTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL ESTABLISH ITSELF OVER
THE AREA THIS WEEK...KEEPING SKIES MOSTLY CLEAR AND ZEROING OUT ANY
CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION. TEMPERATURES WILL OPEN THE WEEK BELOW
NORMAL AND GRADUALLY WARM THROUGH THE WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE
ESTABLISHES ITSELF OVER THE WEST.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
A DEEP UPPER LOW CONTINUES TO SPIN OVER THE GREAT BASIN...GRADUALLY
TRANSLATING EASTWARD WITH ONE NOTABLE PV ANOMALY PROPAGATING INTO
THE FOUR CORNERS AREA. LOCALLY...THE COMBINATION OF RIGHT ENTRANCE
REGION JET DYNAMICS AND RESIDUAL MOISTURE IN THE H8-H7 LAYER (PER
12Z KTWC SOUNDING DATA) WERE FORCING AN EXPANDING AREA OF STRATO-CU
THROUGH SERN ARIZONA. ANY DEEPER CONVECTIVE ELEMENTS SHOULD
MATERIALIZE EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA...AS THE PREPONDERANCE OF HIGH
RESOLUTION AND OPERATIONAL MODELS SUGGEST. NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES
NECESSARY THIS MORNING...ONLY TRIMMING FORECAST HIGHS SLIGHTLY WHILE
ALSO HOLDING SOME BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE IN LONGER DUE TO WET
GROUND BEFORE DEEPER MIXING DRIES OUT THE ENTIRE ATMOSPHERIC LAYER
LATE THIS AFTERNOON.

&&

.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
/345 AM MST MON SEP 29 2014/
LARGE UPPER LEVEL CLOSED LOW REMAINS OVER MUCH OF THE WESTERN CONUS
THIS AM WITH DRYING WEST FLOW SWEEPING ALONG ITS SOUTHERN FRINGE AND
INTO THE FORECAST AREA. CLOSER TO THE SURFACE...DEWPOINT READINGS
RANGE FROM THE UPPER 30S TO LOW 50S OVER THE WESTERN AZ AND SOUTHEAST
CA DESERTS...WITH STILL ELEVATED READINGS PUSHING 60 DEGREES OVER THE
SOUTH CENTRAL DESERTS. MOISTURE REMAINS RATHER SHALLOW AND CLOSE TO
THE SURFACE WITH FURTHER DRYING NOTED ALOFT ON NEIGHBOR AND AIRCRAFT
SOUNDINGS LAST EVENING AND PWATS GENERALLY BELOW 0.75 INCHES. CLOSER
TO THE LOW COLD CORE...STRATIFORM CLOUDS AND LIGHT PRECIP ACTIVITY
LINGER ACROSS PORTIONS OF UT...SOUTHERN NV AND FAR NORTHWESTERN AZ.
NEARLY CLOUDLESS SKIES ARE IN PLACE OVER OUR FORECAST AREA...WITH
ONLY A THIN BAND OF CU ACROSS SOUTHERN GILA COUNTY ALONG A SMALL
AREA OF UPPER LEVEL ASCENT AND JET ENERGY.

CIRCULATION OF THE UPPER LOW HAS BEEN OPENING UP OVER THE LAST 12
HOURS AS A SHORTWAVE DISTURBANCE CURRENTLY DIGS OVER THE SIERRA.
THIS DISTURBANCE WILL ROTATE THROUGH NORTHERN AZ TODAY BEFORE PASSING
THROUGH THE FOUR CORNERS AS THE PARENT LOW CONTINUES TO KICK OUT
INTO THE PLAINS STATES. EVEN WITH ITS NEAR PROXIMITY...DRIER AND
CONTINUED STABLE CONDITIONS WILL HOLD OVER THE AREA KEEPING CHANCES
FOR ANY PRECIP ACTIVITY WELL NORTH AND NORTHEAST OF THE LOWER DESERT
ELEVATIONS. REINFORCING SHOT OF DRY NORTHWESTERLY FLOW IN THE WAKE OF
THE EXITING UPPER LOW AND WEAK LONGWAVE TROUGHING OVER THE WESTERN
CONUS FURTHER SUPPORT POP CHANCES AT ZERO FOR THE REST OF THE WEEK.
EXPECT CLEAR TO MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND DRY SURFACE CONDITIONS TO TAKE
US INTO OCTOBER AND OUT OF MONSOON 2014.

THROUGH THURSDAY...LONGWAVE TROUGHING WILL HOLD OVER THE WEST WHILE
THE LOWER TO MID ATMOSPHERE LEVELS GRADUALLY WARM...ABOUT 1 TO 2 C
EACH AFTERNOON FROM 850MB TO THE SFC. BEST PERFORMING GRIDDED AND
CONSENSUS TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE ALL POINT TO HIGHS IN THE LOW 90S
EARLY IN THE WEEK REACHING THE MID TO UPPER 90S BY THE LATE
WEEK...WITH 100F (OR JUST WARMER) READINGS FOR YUMA AND EL CENTRO.

BY FRIDAY...RIDGING OFF THE PACIFIC WILL TRANSITION OVER THE WESTERN
CONUS WITH 1000-500MB THICKNESSES PEAKING IN THE LOW 580DM RANGE AND
850MB TEMPS CLIMBING NEAR 24C FOR THE AFTERNOONS THROUGH THE EARLY
WEEKEND. 100F DEGREE READINGS WILL PERSIST OUT WEST AND POSSIBLY
MAKING A RETURN OVER THE SOUTH-CENTRAL AZ DESERTS. OVER THE LAST
NORMAL PERIOD (1981-2010) THE AVERAGE LAST DAY WE`VE SEEN 100F IN
PHOENIX FALLS ON OCT 3RD...AND OCT 5TH FOR YUMA. WHERE THE AFTERNOONS
MAY SEEM WARM TO SOME...THE MORNINGS WILL BE MILD AND CLOSER TOWARD
NORMAL READINGS. BY THE LATE WEEKEND/EARLY NEXT WEEK...RIDGE HEIGHTS
LOOK TO LOWER AND FLATTEN AS THE ACTIVE STORM PATTERN OVER THE
NORTHERN PACIFIC APPROACHES WESTERN NORTH AMERICA. OUTSIDE OF SOME
SLIGHT COOLING POTENTIAL FOR TEMPERATURES...CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY
REMAIN DRY WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT DIURNALLY DRIVEN WINDS.

&&

.AVIATION...
SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA INCLUDING KPHX...KIWA...AND KSDL...
LIGHT SHOWER ACTIVITY AHEAD OF A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE
EASTWARD ACROSS NORTHERN ARIZONA THIS MORNING. MEANWHILE...ACROSS
THE PHOENIX AREA...A BAND OF CLOUDINESS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM
WILL CLIP SOUTH-CENTRAL AZ THIS MORNING. HOWEVER...CIGS ARE NOT
EXPECTED TO DROP BELOW 6-7K FT. A DRIER AND MORE STABLE AIR MASS
WILL SETTLE IN THIS AFTERNOON RESULTING IN CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT
WINDS.

SOUTHWEST ARIZONA AND SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA INCLUDING KIPL AND KBLH...
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES WITH NO AVIATION WEATHER IMPACTS ANTICIPATED.
WINDS WILL GENERALLY REMAIN LIGHT AND OUT OF THE WEST AND NORTHWEST.

AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDED TAFS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...
A GRADUAL WARMING TREND WILL CONTINUE...CLIMBING ABOVE NORMAL BY
NEXT WEEKEND. MINIMUM HUMIDITY LEVELS WILL REMAIN RELATIVELY STEADY
THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD...DROPPING INTO THE MIDDLE TEENS EACH
AFTERNOON ON THE LOWER ELEVATIONS. WINDS WILL BE ON THE LIGHT SIDE
WITH OCCASIONAL AFTERNOON BREEZINESS.

&&

.PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

AZ...NONE.

CA...NONE.

&&

$$

VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/PHOENIX

DISCUSSION...MO/NOLTE
AVIATION...HIRSCH
FIRE WEATHER...AJ






000
FXUS65 KPSR 291720
AFDPSR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PHOENIX AZ
1015 AM MST MON SEP 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
DRY AND STABLE WEST TO NORTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL ESTABLISH ITSELF OVER
THE AREA THIS WEEK...KEEPING SKIES MOSTLY CLEAR AND ZEROING OUT ANY
CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION. TEMPERATURES WILL OPEN THE WEEK BELOW
NORMAL AND GRADUALLY WARM THROUGH THE WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE
ESTABLISHES ITSELF OVER THE WEST.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
A DEEP UPPER LOW CONTINUES TO SPIN OVER THE GREAT BASIN...GRADUALLY
TRANSLATING EASTWARD WITH ONE NOTABLE PV ANOMALY PROPAGATING INTO
THE FOUR CORNERS AREA. LOCALLY...THE COMBINATION OF RIGHT ENTRANCE
REGION JET DYNAMICS AND RESIDUAL MOISTURE IN THE H8-H7 LAYER (PER
12Z KTWC SOUNDING DATA) WERE FORCING AN EXPANDING AREA OF STRATO-CU
THROUGH SERN ARIZONA. ANY DEEPER CONVECTIVE ELEMENTS SHOULD
MATERIALIZE EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA...AS THE PREPONDERANCE OF HIGH
RESOLUTION AND OPERATIONAL MODELS SUGGEST. NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES
NECESSARY THIS MORNING...ONLY TRIMMING FORECAST HIGHS SLIGHTLY WHILE
ALSO HOLDING SOME BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE IN LONGER DUE TO WET
GROUND BEFORE DEEPER MIXING DRIES OUT THE ENTIRE ATMOSPHERIC LAYER
LATE THIS AFTERNOON.

&&

.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
/345 AM MST MON SEP 29 2014/
LARGE UPPER LEVEL CLOSED LOW REMAINS OVER MUCH OF THE WESTERN CONUS
THIS AM WITH DRYING WEST FLOW SWEEPING ALONG ITS SOUTHERN FRINGE AND
INTO THE FORECAST AREA. CLOSER TO THE SURFACE...DEWPOINT READINGS
RANGE FROM THE UPPER 30S TO LOW 50S OVER THE WESTERN AZ AND SOUTHEAST
CA DESERTS...WITH STILL ELEVATED READINGS PUSHING 60 DEGREES OVER THE
SOUTH CENTRAL DESERTS. MOISTURE REMAINS RATHER SHALLOW AND CLOSE TO
THE SURFACE WITH FURTHER DRYING NOTED ALOFT ON NEIGHBOR AND AIRCRAFT
SOUNDINGS LAST EVENING AND PWATS GENERALLY BELOW 0.75 INCHES. CLOSER
TO THE LOW COLD CORE...STRATIFORM CLOUDS AND LIGHT PRECIP ACTIVITY
LINGER ACROSS PORTIONS OF UT...SOUTHERN NV AND FAR NORTHWESTERN AZ.
NEARLY CLOUDLESS SKIES ARE IN PLACE OVER OUR FORECAST AREA...WITH
ONLY A THIN BAND OF CU ACROSS SOUTHERN GILA COUNTY ALONG A SMALL
AREA OF UPPER LEVEL ASCENT AND JET ENERGY.

CIRCULATION OF THE UPPER LOW HAS BEEN OPENING UP OVER THE LAST 12
HOURS AS A SHORTWAVE DISTURBANCE CURRENTLY DIGS OVER THE SIERRA.
THIS DISTURBANCE WILL ROTATE THROUGH NORTHERN AZ TODAY BEFORE PASSING
THROUGH THE FOUR CORNERS AS THE PARENT LOW CONTINUES TO KICK OUT
INTO THE PLAINS STATES. EVEN WITH ITS NEAR PROXIMITY...DRIER AND
CONTINUED STABLE CONDITIONS WILL HOLD OVER THE AREA KEEPING CHANCES
FOR ANY PRECIP ACTIVITY WELL NORTH AND NORTHEAST OF THE LOWER DESERT
ELEVATIONS. REINFORCING SHOT OF DRY NORTHWESTERLY FLOW IN THE WAKE OF
THE EXITING UPPER LOW AND WEAK LONGWAVE TROUGHING OVER THE WESTERN
CONUS FURTHER SUPPORT POP CHANCES AT ZERO FOR THE REST OF THE WEEK.
EXPECT CLEAR TO MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND DRY SURFACE CONDITIONS TO TAKE
US INTO OCTOBER AND OUT OF MONSOON 2014.

THROUGH THURSDAY...LONGWAVE TROUGHING WILL HOLD OVER THE WEST WHILE
THE LOWER TO MID ATMOSPHERE LEVELS GRADUALLY WARM...ABOUT 1 TO 2 C
EACH AFTERNOON FROM 850MB TO THE SFC. BEST PERFORMING GRIDDED AND
CONSENSUS TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE ALL POINT TO HIGHS IN THE LOW 90S
EARLY IN THE WEEK REACHING THE MID TO UPPER 90S BY THE LATE
WEEK...WITH 100F (OR JUST WARMER) READINGS FOR YUMA AND EL CENTRO.

BY FRIDAY...RIDGING OFF THE PACIFIC WILL TRANSITION OVER THE WESTERN
CONUS WITH 1000-500MB THICKNESSES PEAKING IN THE LOW 580DM RANGE AND
850MB TEMPS CLIMBING NEAR 24C FOR THE AFTERNOONS THROUGH THE EARLY
WEEKEND. 100F DEGREE READINGS WILL PERSIST OUT WEST AND POSSIBLY
MAKING A RETURN OVER THE SOUTH-CENTRAL AZ DESERTS. OVER THE LAST
NORMAL PERIOD (1981-2010) THE AVERAGE LAST DAY WE`VE SEEN 100F IN
PHOENIX FALLS ON OCT 3RD...AND OCT 5TH FOR YUMA. WHERE THE AFTERNOONS
MAY SEEM WARM TO SOME...THE MORNINGS WILL BE MILD AND CLOSER TOWARD
NORMAL READINGS. BY THE LATE WEEKEND/EARLY NEXT WEEK...RIDGE HEIGHTS
LOOK TO LOWER AND FLATTEN AS THE ACTIVE STORM PATTERN OVER THE
NORTHERN PACIFIC APPROACHES WESTERN NORTH AMERICA. OUTSIDE OF SOME
SLIGHT COOLING POTENTIAL FOR TEMPERATURES...CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY
REMAIN DRY WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT DIURNALLY DRIVEN WINDS.

&&

.AVIATION...
SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA INCLUDING KPHX...KIWA...AND KSDL...
LIGHT SHOWER ACTIVITY AHEAD OF A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE
EASTWARD ACROSS NORTHERN ARIZONA THIS MORNING. MEANWHILE...ACROSS
THE PHOENIX AREA...A BAND OF CLOUDINESS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM
WILL CLIP SOUTH-CENTRAL AZ THIS MORNING. HOWEVER...CIGS ARE NOT
EXPECTED TO DROP BELOW 6-7K FT. A DRIER AND MORE STABLE AIR MASS
WILL SETTLE IN THIS AFTERNOON RESULTING IN CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT
WINDS.

SOUTHWEST ARIZONA AND SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA INCLUDING KIPL AND KBLH...
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES WITH NO AVIATION WEATHER IMPACTS ANTICIPATED.
WINDS WILL GENERALLY REMAIN LIGHT AND OUT OF THE WEST AND NORTHWEST.

AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDED TAFS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...
A GRADUAL WARMING TREND WILL CONTINUE...CLIMBING ABOVE NORMAL BY
NEXT WEEKEND. MINIMUM HUMIDITY LEVELS WILL REMAIN RELATIVELY STEADY
THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD...DROPPING INTO THE MIDDLE TEENS EACH
AFTERNOON ON THE LOWER ELEVATIONS. WINDS WILL BE ON THE LIGHT SIDE
WITH OCCASIONAL AFTERNOON BREEZINESS.

&&

.PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

AZ...NONE.

CA...NONE.

&&

$$

VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/PHOENIX

DISCUSSION...MO/NOLTE
AVIATION...HIRSCH
FIRE WEATHER...AJ






000
FXUS65 KPSR 291720
AFDPSR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PHOENIX AZ
1015 AM MST MON SEP 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
DRY AND STABLE WEST TO NORTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL ESTABLISH ITSELF OVER
THE AREA THIS WEEK...KEEPING SKIES MOSTLY CLEAR AND ZEROING OUT ANY
CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION. TEMPERATURES WILL OPEN THE WEEK BELOW
NORMAL AND GRADUALLY WARM THROUGH THE WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE
ESTABLISHES ITSELF OVER THE WEST.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
A DEEP UPPER LOW CONTINUES TO SPIN OVER THE GREAT BASIN...GRADUALLY
TRANSLATING EASTWARD WITH ONE NOTABLE PV ANOMALY PROPAGATING INTO
THE FOUR CORNERS AREA. LOCALLY...THE COMBINATION OF RIGHT ENTRANCE
REGION JET DYNAMICS AND RESIDUAL MOISTURE IN THE H8-H7 LAYER (PER
12Z KTWC SOUNDING DATA) WERE FORCING AN EXPANDING AREA OF STRATO-CU
THROUGH SERN ARIZONA. ANY DEEPER CONVECTIVE ELEMENTS SHOULD
MATERIALIZE EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA...AS THE PREPONDERANCE OF HIGH
RESOLUTION AND OPERATIONAL MODELS SUGGEST. NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES
NECESSARY THIS MORNING...ONLY TRIMMING FORECAST HIGHS SLIGHTLY WHILE
ALSO HOLDING SOME BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE IN LONGER DUE TO WET
GROUND BEFORE DEEPER MIXING DRIES OUT THE ENTIRE ATMOSPHERIC LAYER
LATE THIS AFTERNOON.

&&

.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
/345 AM MST MON SEP 29 2014/
LARGE UPPER LEVEL CLOSED LOW REMAINS OVER MUCH OF THE WESTERN CONUS
THIS AM WITH DRYING WEST FLOW SWEEPING ALONG ITS SOUTHERN FRINGE AND
INTO THE FORECAST AREA. CLOSER TO THE SURFACE...DEWPOINT READINGS
RANGE FROM THE UPPER 30S TO LOW 50S OVER THE WESTERN AZ AND SOUTHEAST
CA DESERTS...WITH STILL ELEVATED READINGS PUSHING 60 DEGREES OVER THE
SOUTH CENTRAL DESERTS. MOISTURE REMAINS RATHER SHALLOW AND CLOSE TO
THE SURFACE WITH FURTHER DRYING NOTED ALOFT ON NEIGHBOR AND AIRCRAFT
SOUNDINGS LAST EVENING AND PWATS GENERALLY BELOW 0.75 INCHES. CLOSER
TO THE LOW COLD CORE...STRATIFORM CLOUDS AND LIGHT PRECIP ACTIVITY
LINGER ACROSS PORTIONS OF UT...SOUTHERN NV AND FAR NORTHWESTERN AZ.
NEARLY CLOUDLESS SKIES ARE IN PLACE OVER OUR FORECAST AREA...WITH
ONLY A THIN BAND OF CU ACROSS SOUTHERN GILA COUNTY ALONG A SMALL
AREA OF UPPER LEVEL ASCENT AND JET ENERGY.

CIRCULATION OF THE UPPER LOW HAS BEEN OPENING UP OVER THE LAST 12
HOURS AS A SHORTWAVE DISTURBANCE CURRENTLY DIGS OVER THE SIERRA.
THIS DISTURBANCE WILL ROTATE THROUGH NORTHERN AZ TODAY BEFORE PASSING
THROUGH THE FOUR CORNERS AS THE PARENT LOW CONTINUES TO KICK OUT
INTO THE PLAINS STATES. EVEN WITH ITS NEAR PROXIMITY...DRIER AND
CONTINUED STABLE CONDITIONS WILL HOLD OVER THE AREA KEEPING CHANCES
FOR ANY PRECIP ACTIVITY WELL NORTH AND NORTHEAST OF THE LOWER DESERT
ELEVATIONS. REINFORCING SHOT OF DRY NORTHWESTERLY FLOW IN THE WAKE OF
THE EXITING UPPER LOW AND WEAK LONGWAVE TROUGHING OVER THE WESTERN
CONUS FURTHER SUPPORT POP CHANCES AT ZERO FOR THE REST OF THE WEEK.
EXPECT CLEAR TO MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND DRY SURFACE CONDITIONS TO TAKE
US INTO OCTOBER AND OUT OF MONSOON 2014.

THROUGH THURSDAY...LONGWAVE TROUGHING WILL HOLD OVER THE WEST WHILE
THE LOWER TO MID ATMOSPHERE LEVELS GRADUALLY WARM...ABOUT 1 TO 2 C
EACH AFTERNOON FROM 850MB TO THE SFC. BEST PERFORMING GRIDDED AND
CONSENSUS TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE ALL POINT TO HIGHS IN THE LOW 90S
EARLY IN THE WEEK REACHING THE MID TO UPPER 90S BY THE LATE
WEEK...WITH 100F (OR JUST WARMER) READINGS FOR YUMA AND EL CENTRO.

BY FRIDAY...RIDGING OFF THE PACIFIC WILL TRANSITION OVER THE WESTERN
CONUS WITH 1000-500MB THICKNESSES PEAKING IN THE LOW 580DM RANGE AND
850MB TEMPS CLIMBING NEAR 24C FOR THE AFTERNOONS THROUGH THE EARLY
WEEKEND. 100F DEGREE READINGS WILL PERSIST OUT WEST AND POSSIBLY
MAKING A RETURN OVER THE SOUTH-CENTRAL AZ DESERTS. OVER THE LAST
NORMAL PERIOD (1981-2010) THE AVERAGE LAST DAY WE`VE SEEN 100F IN
PHOENIX FALLS ON OCT 3RD...AND OCT 5TH FOR YUMA. WHERE THE AFTERNOONS
MAY SEEM WARM TO SOME...THE MORNINGS WILL BE MILD AND CLOSER TOWARD
NORMAL READINGS. BY THE LATE WEEKEND/EARLY NEXT WEEK...RIDGE HEIGHTS
LOOK TO LOWER AND FLATTEN AS THE ACTIVE STORM PATTERN OVER THE
NORTHERN PACIFIC APPROACHES WESTERN NORTH AMERICA. OUTSIDE OF SOME
SLIGHT COOLING POTENTIAL FOR TEMPERATURES...CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY
REMAIN DRY WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT DIURNALLY DRIVEN WINDS.

&&

.AVIATION...
SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA INCLUDING KPHX...KIWA...AND KSDL...
LIGHT SHOWER ACTIVITY AHEAD OF A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE
EASTWARD ACROSS NORTHERN ARIZONA THIS MORNING. MEANWHILE...ACROSS
THE PHOENIX AREA...A BAND OF CLOUDINESS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM
WILL CLIP SOUTH-CENTRAL AZ THIS MORNING. HOWEVER...CIGS ARE NOT
EXPECTED TO DROP BELOW 6-7K FT. A DRIER AND MORE STABLE AIR MASS
WILL SETTLE IN THIS AFTERNOON RESULTING IN CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT
WINDS.

SOUTHWEST ARIZONA AND SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA INCLUDING KIPL AND KBLH...
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES WITH NO AVIATION WEATHER IMPACTS ANTICIPATED.
WINDS WILL GENERALLY REMAIN LIGHT AND OUT OF THE WEST AND NORTHWEST.

AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDED TAFS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...
A GRADUAL WARMING TREND WILL CONTINUE...CLIMBING ABOVE NORMAL BY
NEXT WEEKEND. MINIMUM HUMIDITY LEVELS WILL REMAIN RELATIVELY STEADY
THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD...DROPPING INTO THE MIDDLE TEENS EACH
AFTERNOON ON THE LOWER ELEVATIONS. WINDS WILL BE ON THE LIGHT SIDE
WITH OCCASIONAL AFTERNOON BREEZINESS.

&&

.PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

AZ...NONE.

CA...NONE.

&&

$$

VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/PHOENIX

DISCUSSION...MO/NOLTE
AVIATION...HIRSCH
FIRE WEATHER...AJ






000
FXUS65 KPSR 291720
AFDPSR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PHOENIX AZ
1015 AM MST MON SEP 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
DRY AND STABLE WEST TO NORTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL ESTABLISH ITSELF OVER
THE AREA THIS WEEK...KEEPING SKIES MOSTLY CLEAR AND ZEROING OUT ANY
CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION. TEMPERATURES WILL OPEN THE WEEK BELOW
NORMAL AND GRADUALLY WARM THROUGH THE WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE
ESTABLISHES ITSELF OVER THE WEST.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
A DEEP UPPER LOW CONTINUES TO SPIN OVER THE GREAT BASIN...GRADUALLY
TRANSLATING EASTWARD WITH ONE NOTABLE PV ANOMALY PROPAGATING INTO
THE FOUR CORNERS AREA. LOCALLY...THE COMBINATION OF RIGHT ENTRANCE
REGION JET DYNAMICS AND RESIDUAL MOISTURE IN THE H8-H7 LAYER (PER
12Z KTWC SOUNDING DATA) WERE FORCING AN EXPANDING AREA OF STRATO-CU
THROUGH SERN ARIZONA. ANY DEEPER CONVECTIVE ELEMENTS SHOULD
MATERIALIZE EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA...AS THE PREPONDERANCE OF HIGH
RESOLUTION AND OPERATIONAL MODELS SUGGEST. NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES
NECESSARY THIS MORNING...ONLY TRIMMING FORECAST HIGHS SLIGHTLY WHILE
ALSO HOLDING SOME BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE IN LONGER DUE TO WET
GROUND BEFORE DEEPER MIXING DRIES OUT THE ENTIRE ATMOSPHERIC LAYER
LATE THIS AFTERNOON.

&&

.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
/345 AM MST MON SEP 29 2014/
LARGE UPPER LEVEL CLOSED LOW REMAINS OVER MUCH OF THE WESTERN CONUS
THIS AM WITH DRYING WEST FLOW SWEEPING ALONG ITS SOUTHERN FRINGE AND
INTO THE FORECAST AREA. CLOSER TO THE SURFACE...DEWPOINT READINGS
RANGE FROM THE UPPER 30S TO LOW 50S OVER THE WESTERN AZ AND SOUTHEAST
CA DESERTS...WITH STILL ELEVATED READINGS PUSHING 60 DEGREES OVER THE
SOUTH CENTRAL DESERTS. MOISTURE REMAINS RATHER SHALLOW AND CLOSE TO
THE SURFACE WITH FURTHER DRYING NOTED ALOFT ON NEIGHBOR AND AIRCRAFT
SOUNDINGS LAST EVENING AND PWATS GENERALLY BELOW 0.75 INCHES. CLOSER
TO THE LOW COLD CORE...STRATIFORM CLOUDS AND LIGHT PRECIP ACTIVITY
LINGER ACROSS PORTIONS OF UT...SOUTHERN NV AND FAR NORTHWESTERN AZ.
NEARLY CLOUDLESS SKIES ARE IN PLACE OVER OUR FORECAST AREA...WITH
ONLY A THIN BAND OF CU ACROSS SOUTHERN GILA COUNTY ALONG A SMALL
AREA OF UPPER LEVEL ASCENT AND JET ENERGY.

CIRCULATION OF THE UPPER LOW HAS BEEN OPENING UP OVER THE LAST 12
HOURS AS A SHORTWAVE DISTURBANCE CURRENTLY DIGS OVER THE SIERRA.
THIS DISTURBANCE WILL ROTATE THROUGH NORTHERN AZ TODAY BEFORE PASSING
THROUGH THE FOUR CORNERS AS THE PARENT LOW CONTINUES TO KICK OUT
INTO THE PLAINS STATES. EVEN WITH ITS NEAR PROXIMITY...DRIER AND
CONTINUED STABLE CONDITIONS WILL HOLD OVER THE AREA KEEPING CHANCES
FOR ANY PRECIP ACTIVITY WELL NORTH AND NORTHEAST OF THE LOWER DESERT
ELEVATIONS. REINFORCING SHOT OF DRY NORTHWESTERLY FLOW IN THE WAKE OF
THE EXITING UPPER LOW AND WEAK LONGWAVE TROUGHING OVER THE WESTERN
CONUS FURTHER SUPPORT POP CHANCES AT ZERO FOR THE REST OF THE WEEK.
EXPECT CLEAR TO MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND DRY SURFACE CONDITIONS TO TAKE
US INTO OCTOBER AND OUT OF MONSOON 2014.

THROUGH THURSDAY...LONGWAVE TROUGHING WILL HOLD OVER THE WEST WHILE
THE LOWER TO MID ATMOSPHERE LEVELS GRADUALLY WARM...ABOUT 1 TO 2 C
EACH AFTERNOON FROM 850MB TO THE SFC. BEST PERFORMING GRIDDED AND
CONSENSUS TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE ALL POINT TO HIGHS IN THE LOW 90S
EARLY IN THE WEEK REACHING THE MID TO UPPER 90S BY THE LATE
WEEK...WITH 100F (OR JUST WARMER) READINGS FOR YUMA AND EL CENTRO.

BY FRIDAY...RIDGING OFF THE PACIFIC WILL TRANSITION OVER THE WESTERN
CONUS WITH 1000-500MB THICKNESSES PEAKING IN THE LOW 580DM RANGE AND
850MB TEMPS CLIMBING NEAR 24C FOR THE AFTERNOONS THROUGH THE EARLY
WEEKEND. 100F DEGREE READINGS WILL PERSIST OUT WEST AND POSSIBLY
MAKING A RETURN OVER THE SOUTH-CENTRAL AZ DESERTS. OVER THE LAST
NORMAL PERIOD (1981-2010) THE AVERAGE LAST DAY WE`VE SEEN 100F IN
PHOENIX FALLS ON OCT 3RD...AND OCT 5TH FOR YUMA. WHERE THE AFTERNOONS
MAY SEEM WARM TO SOME...THE MORNINGS WILL BE MILD AND CLOSER TOWARD
NORMAL READINGS. BY THE LATE WEEKEND/EARLY NEXT WEEK...RIDGE HEIGHTS
LOOK TO LOWER AND FLATTEN AS THE ACTIVE STORM PATTERN OVER THE
NORTHERN PACIFIC APPROACHES WESTERN NORTH AMERICA. OUTSIDE OF SOME
SLIGHT COOLING POTENTIAL FOR TEMPERATURES...CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY
REMAIN DRY WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT DIURNALLY DRIVEN WINDS.

&&

.AVIATION...
SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA INCLUDING KPHX...KIWA...AND KSDL...
LIGHT SHOWER ACTIVITY AHEAD OF A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE
EASTWARD ACROSS NORTHERN ARIZONA THIS MORNING. MEANWHILE...ACROSS
THE PHOENIX AREA...A BAND OF CLOUDINESS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM
WILL CLIP SOUTH-CENTRAL AZ THIS MORNING. HOWEVER...CIGS ARE NOT
EXPECTED TO DROP BELOW 6-7K FT. A DRIER AND MORE STABLE AIR MASS
WILL SETTLE IN THIS AFTERNOON RESULTING IN CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT
WINDS.

SOUTHWEST ARIZONA AND SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA INCLUDING KIPL AND KBLH...
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES WITH NO AVIATION WEATHER IMPACTS ANTICIPATED.
WINDS WILL GENERALLY REMAIN LIGHT AND OUT OF THE WEST AND NORTHWEST.

AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDED TAFS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...
A GRADUAL WARMING TREND WILL CONTINUE...CLIMBING ABOVE NORMAL BY
NEXT WEEKEND. MINIMUM HUMIDITY LEVELS WILL REMAIN RELATIVELY STEADY
THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD...DROPPING INTO THE MIDDLE TEENS EACH
AFTERNOON ON THE LOWER ELEVATIONS. WINDS WILL BE ON THE LIGHT SIDE
WITH OCCASIONAL AFTERNOON BREEZINESS.

&&

.PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

AZ...NONE.

CA...NONE.

&&

$$

VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/PHOENIX

DISCUSSION...MO/NOLTE
AVIATION...HIRSCH
FIRE WEATHER...AJ






000
FXUS65 KFGZ 291630
AFDFGZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ
930 AM MST MON SEP 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...A FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL LINGER TODAY ACROSS
NORTHWEST ARIZONA...EXTREME NORTHERN ARIZONA...AND SOUTHERN APACHE
COUNTY. COOL DRY AIR WILL MOVE IN FROM THE WEST LATE THIS AFTERNOON.
EXPECT COOLER NIGHTS WITH NO PRECIPITATION FORECAST THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...A LARGE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM CUT-OFF FROM THE POLAR
FRONT JET WILL SLOWLY DRIFT ACROSS UTAH TODAY. A FEW SHOWERS WILL
LINGER ALONG THE UTAH BORDER REGION AND ACROSS NAVAJO AND APACHE
COUNTIES TODAY. OTHERWISE DRY CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH MUCH
OF THE UPCOMING WORK WEEK.

&&

.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...THE LARGE UPPER LEVEL CUT-OFF LOW HAS ONE
MORE DISTURBANCE ROTATING THROUGH THE BASE OF THE TROUGH THIS
MORNING...AND THEN THE SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO HEAD NORTHEAST DURING
THE DAY TODAY. THIS LAST DISTURBANCE IS CURRENTLY SENDING A BAND OF
CLOUDS AND SHOWERS ACROSS SOUTHERN NEVADA...WITH THIS ACTIVITY
FORECAST TO CROSS NORTHWEST AND NORTHERN ARIZONA FROM KIGM TO KGCN
TO K0V7 TO KFMN ACROSS NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE STATE THIS MORNING
AND EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. IN ADDITION...ENOUGH MID LEVEL MOISTURE
MAY BRING AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THE DECAYING
FRONTAL BOUNDARY EXTENDING FROM SOUTHERN APACHE COUNTY NORTHEAST
INTO NORTH CENTRAL NEW MEXICO.

THIS PASSAGE OF THIS SYSTEM WILL BRING A DRY...COOL...AND STABLE
AIRMASS INTO NORTHERN ARIZONA TO REMIND US THAT FALL WEATHER IS
HERE. EXPECT COLDER OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES AT SOME MOUNTAIN
LOCATIONS APPROACHING OR EXCEEDING FREEZING FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF
MORNINGS THROUGH WEDNESDAY. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL RUN 4-8 DEGREES
BELOW NORMAL.

THE LAST TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL PASS THROUGH THE NORTHERN
ROCKIES ON WEDNESDAY...THEN A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE IS FORECAST TO
BUILD INTO THE INTERMOUNTAIN STATES WITH WARMER AND DRY CONDITIONS
LASTING THROUGH NEXT MONDAY...10/6.

&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 18Z PACKAGE...AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVING
ACROSS FAR NRN AZ TODAY WILL BRING SCT-BKN CLOUD DECKS AT 6-10 KFT
AGL. ISOLATED -SHRA/-TSRA NORTH AND EAST OF A LINE FROM
KGCN-KOV7-KSOW THROUGH 00Z TUES...THEN CLEARING. AFTERNOON SFC WINDS
SW-W 10-20 KTS. AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDMENTS.

&&

.FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC.........BOHLIN/TC
AVIATION.......JJ

FOR NORTHERN ARIZONA WEATHER INFORMATION VISIT
WEATHER.GOV/FLAGSTAFF







000
FXUS65 KFGZ 291630
AFDFGZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ
930 AM MST MON SEP 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...A FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL LINGER TODAY ACROSS
NORTHWEST ARIZONA...EXTREME NORTHERN ARIZONA...AND SOUTHERN APACHE
COUNTY. COOL DRY AIR WILL MOVE IN FROM THE WEST LATE THIS AFTERNOON.
EXPECT COOLER NIGHTS WITH NO PRECIPITATION FORECAST THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...A LARGE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM CUT-OFF FROM THE POLAR
FRONT JET WILL SLOWLY DRIFT ACROSS UTAH TODAY. A FEW SHOWERS WILL
LINGER ALONG THE UTAH BORDER REGION AND ACROSS NAVAJO AND APACHE
COUNTIES TODAY. OTHERWISE DRY CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH MUCH
OF THE UPCOMING WORK WEEK.

&&

.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...THE LARGE UPPER LEVEL CUT-OFF LOW HAS ONE
MORE DISTURBANCE ROTATING THROUGH THE BASE OF THE TROUGH THIS
MORNING...AND THEN THE SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO HEAD NORTHEAST DURING
THE DAY TODAY. THIS LAST DISTURBANCE IS CURRENTLY SENDING A BAND OF
CLOUDS AND SHOWERS ACROSS SOUTHERN NEVADA...WITH THIS ACTIVITY
FORECAST TO CROSS NORTHWEST AND NORTHERN ARIZONA FROM KIGM TO KGCN
TO K0V7 TO KFMN ACROSS NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE STATE THIS MORNING
AND EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. IN ADDITION...ENOUGH MID LEVEL MOISTURE
MAY BRING AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THE DECAYING
FRONTAL BOUNDARY EXTENDING FROM SOUTHERN APACHE COUNTY NORTHEAST
INTO NORTH CENTRAL NEW MEXICO.

THIS PASSAGE OF THIS SYSTEM WILL BRING A DRY...COOL...AND STABLE
AIRMASS INTO NORTHERN ARIZONA TO REMIND US THAT FALL WEATHER IS
HERE. EXPECT COLDER OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES AT SOME MOUNTAIN
LOCATIONS APPROACHING OR EXCEEDING FREEZING FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF
MORNINGS THROUGH WEDNESDAY. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL RUN 4-8 DEGREES
BELOW NORMAL.

THE LAST TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL PASS THROUGH THE NORTHERN
ROCKIES ON WEDNESDAY...THEN A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE IS FORECAST TO
BUILD INTO THE INTERMOUNTAIN STATES WITH WARMER AND DRY CONDITIONS
LASTING THROUGH NEXT MONDAY...10/6.

&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 18Z PACKAGE...AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVING
ACROSS FAR NRN AZ TODAY WILL BRING SCT-BKN CLOUD DECKS AT 6-10 KFT
AGL. ISOLATED -SHRA/-TSRA NORTH AND EAST OF A LINE FROM
KGCN-KOV7-KSOW THROUGH 00Z TUES...THEN CLEARING. AFTERNOON SFC WINDS
SW-W 10-20 KTS. AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDMENTS.

&&

.FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC.........BOHLIN/TC
AVIATION.......JJ

FOR NORTHERN ARIZONA WEATHER INFORMATION VISIT
WEATHER.GOV/FLAGSTAFF






000
FXUS65 KFGZ 291628
AFDFGZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ
305 AM MST MON SEP 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...A FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL LINGER TODAY ACROSS
NORTHWEST ARIZONA...EXTREME NORTHERN ARIZONA...AND SOUTHERN APACHE
COUNTY. COOL DRY AIR WILL MOVE IN FROM THE WEST LATE THIS AFTERNOON.
EXPECT COOLER NIGHTS WITH NO PRECIPITATION FORECAST THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...A LARGE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM CUT-OFF FROM THE POLAR
FRONT JET WILL SLOWLY DRIFT ACROSS UTAH TODAY. A FEW SHOWERS WILL
LINGER ALONG THE UTAH BORDER REGION AND ACROSS NAVAJO AND APACHE
COUNTIES TODAY. OTHERWISE DRY CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH MUCH
OF THE UPCOMING WORK WEEK.

&&

.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...THE LARGE UPPER LEVEL CUT-OFF LOW HAS ONE
MORE DISTURBANCE ROTATING THROUGH THE BASE OF THE TROUGH THIS
MORNING...AND THEN THE SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO HEAD NORTHEAST DURING
THE DAY TODAY. THIS LAST DISTURBANCE IS CURRENTLY SENDING A BAND OF
CLOUDS AND SHOWERS ACROSS SOUTHERN NEVADA...WITH THIS ACTIVITY
FORECAST TO CROSS NORTHWEST AND NORTHERN ARIZONA FROM KIGM TO KGCN
TO K0V7 TO KFMN ACROSS NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE STATE THIS MORNING
AND EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. IN ADDITION...ENOUGH MID LEVEL MOISTURE
MAY BRING AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THE DECAYING
FRONTAL BOUNDARY EXTENDING FROM SOUTHERN APACHE COUNTY NORTHEAST
INTO NORTH CENTRAL NEW MEXICO.

THIS PASSAGE OF THIS SYSTEM WILL BRING A DRY...COOL...AND STABLE
AIRMASS INTO NORTHERN ARIZONA TO REMIND US THAT FALL WEATHER IS
HERE. EXPECT COLDER OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES AT SOME MOUNTAIN
LOCATIONS APPROACHING OR EXCEEDING FREEZING FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF
MORNINGS THROUGH WEDNESDAY. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL RUN 4-8 DEGREES
BELOW NORMAL.

THE LAST TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL PASS THROUGH THE NORTHERN
ROCKIES ON WEDNESDAY...THEN A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE IS FORECAST TO
BUILD INTO THE INTERMOUNTAIN STATES WITH WARMER AND DRY CONDITIONS
LASTING THROUGH NEXT MONDAY...10/6.

&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 18Z PACKAGE...AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVING
ACROSS FAR NRN AZ TODAY WILL BRING SCT-BKN CLOUD DECKS AT 6-10 KFT
AGL. ISOLATED -SHRA/-TSRA NORTH AND EAST OF A LINE FROM
KGCN-KOV7-KSOW THROUGH 00Z TUES...THEN CLEARING. AFTERNOON SFC WINDS
SW-W 10-20 KTS. AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDMENTS.

&&

.FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC.........BOHLIN/TC
AVIATION.......JJ

FOR NORTHERN ARIZONA WEATHER INFORMATION VISIT
WEATHER.GOV/FLAGSTAFF







000
FXUS65 KTWC 291617
AFDTWC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ
915 AM MST MON SEP 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...A FEW SHOWERS MAY OCCUR NEAR THE NEW MEXICO BORDER
TODAY. OTHERWISE...DRY CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL INTO THIS WEEKEND. A
GRADUAL WARMING TREND WILL OCCUR ESPECIALLY DURING THE LATTER PART
OF THE WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT BUILDS OVER THE AREA.

&&

.DISCUSSION...MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES WERE ONGOING FROM TUCSON SWD/WWD...
AND SKIES WERE PARTLY CLOUDY ACROSS NRN GREENLEE/GRAHAM COUNTIES.
DEWPOINTS VALID 16Z RANGED FROM THE MID 50S-LOWER 60S F...AND THESE
TEMPS WERE NEARLY IDENTICAL TO 24 HOURS AGO. SURFACE TEMPS VALID 16Z
WERE ABOUT 2-6 DEGS F COOLER VERSUS THIS TIME SUN. 29/12Z KTWC
SOUNDING PRECIP WATER VALUE WAS 0.98 INCH...DOWN NEARLY 0.20 INCH
VERSUS 24 HOURS AGO. MODERATE TO STRONG WLY/SWLY FLOW PREVAILED
ABOVE 700 MB.

DEEP UPPER TROUGH CONTINUED THIS MORNING OVER THE WRN CONUS WITH LOW
PRESSURE CENTERED OVER SRN IDAHO...AND MID-LEVEL TROUGH AXIS EXTENDED
SWD INTO FAR WRN AZ. THE MID-LEVEL TROUGH AXIS IS PROGGED TO MOVE
RAPIDLY EWD INTO WRN NEW MEXICO BY THIS EVENING. A FEW SHOWERS
PRODUCING VERY LIGHT RAIN MAY OCCUR NEAR THE NEW MEXICO BORDER
TODAY. OTHERWISE...SUNNY SKIES WILL OCCUR ACROSS WRN SECTIONS WITH
MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES ELSEWHERE. CLOUDS WILL
DECREASE THIS EVENING FOLLOWED BY CLEAR SKIES OR MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES
LATE TONIGHT.

A BROAD UPPER TROUGH OVER THE PACIFIC NW/NRN ROCKIES TUE WILL
ADVANCE EWD INTO THE NRN CONUS WED. ANY RAINFALL ASSOCIATED WITH A
SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL REMAIN WELL NE OF THE AREA WED. THEREAFTER...
HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT IS PROGGED TO AMPLIFY OVER THE SWRN CONUS THUR-
SUN. A SOMEWHAT TIGHT SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT MAY PRODUCE LOCALLY
GUSTY ELY WINDS THUR NIGHT-FRI. OTHERWISE...CLEAR SKIES OR MOSTLY
CLEAR SKIES WILL PREVAIL DURING THE LATTER PART OF THE WEEK AND THIS
WEEKEND.

HIGH TEMPS THIS AFTERNOON WILL GENERALLY BE QUITE SIMILAR TO TEMPS
ACHIEVED SUN. A GRADUAL WARMING TREND WILL THEN OCCUR PARTICULARLY
DURING THE LATTER PART OF THE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...VALID THRU 30/18Z.
THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF -SHRA/-TSRA NEAR THE NEW MEXICO BORDER
INTO THIS AFTERNOON. OTHERWISE...A FEW TO BROKEN CLOUDS AT 3-10K FT
AGL WILL OCCUR INTO EARLY THIS EVENING FOLLOWED BY CLEAR SKIES OR
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES LATE TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING. SURFACE WIND
THIS AFTERNOON WILL BE SWLY TO NWLY AT 12-18 KTS WITH GUSTS TO 25
KTS. SURFACE WIND AT OTHER TIMES WILL BE MAINLY LESS THAN 10 KTS.
AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR TAF AMENDMENTS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...A FEW SHOWERS MAY OCCUR NEAR THE NEW MEXICO BORDER
TODAY. OTHERWISE...DRY CONDITIONS WITH A GRADUAL WARMING TREND WILL
PREVAIL THIS WEEK. DAYTIME MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITIES WILL LOWER
THIS WEEK AS DRIER AIR MOVES INTO THE REGION...ALTHOUGH GOOD
OVERNIGHT RECOVERIES ARE STILL EXPECTED. 20-FOOT WINDS WILL BE
WEST/NORTHWEST AT 8-18 MPH TODAY...WITH THE STRONGEST WINDS EAST OF
TUCSON. 20-FOOT WINDS WILL THEN BE LESS THAN 15 MPH TUESDAY THROUGH
THURSDAY. SOME ELEVATED EAST AND SOUTHEAST WINDS MAY OCCUR FRIDAY
AND SATURDAY.

&&

.TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.


&&

$$

VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...YOUTUBE...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/TUCSON

FRANCIS






000
FXUS65 KTWC 291617
AFDTWC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ
915 AM MST MON SEP 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...A FEW SHOWERS MAY OCCUR NEAR THE NEW MEXICO BORDER
TODAY. OTHERWISE...DRY CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL INTO THIS WEEKEND. A
GRADUAL WARMING TREND WILL OCCUR ESPECIALLY DURING THE LATTER PART
OF THE WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT BUILDS OVER THE AREA.

&&

.DISCUSSION...MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES WERE ONGOING FROM TUCSON SWD/WWD...
AND SKIES WERE PARTLY CLOUDY ACROSS NRN GREENLEE/GRAHAM COUNTIES.
DEWPOINTS VALID 16Z RANGED FROM THE MID 50S-LOWER 60S F...AND THESE
TEMPS WERE NEARLY IDENTICAL TO 24 HOURS AGO. SURFACE TEMPS VALID 16Z
WERE ABOUT 2-6 DEGS F COOLER VERSUS THIS TIME SUN. 29/12Z KTWC
SOUNDING PRECIP WATER VALUE WAS 0.98 INCH...DOWN NEARLY 0.20 INCH
VERSUS 24 HOURS AGO. MODERATE TO STRONG WLY/SWLY FLOW PREVAILED
ABOVE 700 MB.

DEEP UPPER TROUGH CONTINUED THIS MORNING OVER THE WRN CONUS WITH LOW
PRESSURE CENTERED OVER SRN IDAHO...AND MID-LEVEL TROUGH AXIS EXTENDED
SWD INTO FAR WRN AZ. THE MID-LEVEL TROUGH AXIS IS PROGGED TO MOVE
RAPIDLY EWD INTO WRN NEW MEXICO BY THIS EVENING. A FEW SHOWERS
PRODUCING VERY LIGHT RAIN MAY OCCUR NEAR THE NEW MEXICO BORDER
TODAY. OTHERWISE...SUNNY SKIES WILL OCCUR ACROSS WRN SECTIONS WITH
MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES ELSEWHERE. CLOUDS WILL
DECREASE THIS EVENING FOLLOWED BY CLEAR SKIES OR MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES
LATE TONIGHT.

A BROAD UPPER TROUGH OVER THE PACIFIC NW/NRN ROCKIES TUE WILL
ADVANCE EWD INTO THE NRN CONUS WED. ANY RAINFALL ASSOCIATED WITH A
SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL REMAIN WELL NE OF THE AREA WED. THEREAFTER...
HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT IS PROGGED TO AMPLIFY OVER THE SWRN CONUS THUR-
SUN. A SOMEWHAT TIGHT SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT MAY PRODUCE LOCALLY
GUSTY ELY WINDS THUR NIGHT-FRI. OTHERWISE...CLEAR SKIES OR MOSTLY
CLEAR SKIES WILL PREVAIL DURING THE LATTER PART OF THE WEEK AND THIS
WEEKEND.

HIGH TEMPS THIS AFTERNOON WILL GENERALLY BE QUITE SIMILAR TO TEMPS
ACHIEVED SUN. A GRADUAL WARMING TREND WILL THEN OCCUR PARTICULARLY
DURING THE LATTER PART OF THE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...VALID THRU 30/18Z.
THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF -SHRA/-TSRA NEAR THE NEW MEXICO BORDER
INTO THIS AFTERNOON. OTHERWISE...A FEW TO BROKEN CLOUDS AT 3-10K FT
AGL WILL OCCUR INTO EARLY THIS EVENING FOLLOWED BY CLEAR SKIES OR
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES LATE TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING. SURFACE WIND
THIS AFTERNOON WILL BE SWLY TO NWLY AT 12-18 KTS WITH GUSTS TO 25
KTS. SURFACE WIND AT OTHER TIMES WILL BE MAINLY LESS THAN 10 KTS.
AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR TAF AMENDMENTS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...A FEW SHOWERS MAY OCCUR NEAR THE NEW MEXICO BORDER
TODAY. OTHERWISE...DRY CONDITIONS WITH A GRADUAL WARMING TREND WILL
PREVAIL THIS WEEK. DAYTIME MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITIES WILL LOWER
THIS WEEK AS DRIER AIR MOVES INTO THE REGION...ALTHOUGH GOOD
OVERNIGHT RECOVERIES ARE STILL EXPECTED. 20-FOOT WINDS WILL BE
WEST/NORTHWEST AT 8-18 MPH TODAY...WITH THE STRONGEST WINDS EAST OF
TUCSON. 20-FOOT WINDS WILL THEN BE LESS THAN 15 MPH TUESDAY THROUGH
THURSDAY. SOME ELEVATED EAST AND SOUTHEAST WINDS MAY OCCUR FRIDAY
AND SATURDAY.

&&

.TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.


&&

$$

VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...YOUTUBE...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/TUCSON

FRANCIS






000
FXUS65 KTWC 291617
AFDTWC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ
915 AM MST MON SEP 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...A FEW SHOWERS MAY OCCUR NEAR THE NEW MEXICO BORDER
TODAY. OTHERWISE...DRY CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL INTO THIS WEEKEND. A
GRADUAL WARMING TREND WILL OCCUR ESPECIALLY DURING THE LATTER PART
OF THE WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT BUILDS OVER THE AREA.

&&

.DISCUSSION...MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES WERE ONGOING FROM TUCSON SWD/WWD...
AND SKIES WERE PARTLY CLOUDY ACROSS NRN GREENLEE/GRAHAM COUNTIES.
DEWPOINTS VALID 16Z RANGED FROM THE MID 50S-LOWER 60S F...AND THESE
TEMPS WERE NEARLY IDENTICAL TO 24 HOURS AGO. SURFACE TEMPS VALID 16Z
WERE ABOUT 2-6 DEGS F COOLER VERSUS THIS TIME SUN. 29/12Z KTWC
SOUNDING PRECIP WATER VALUE WAS 0.98 INCH...DOWN NEARLY 0.20 INCH
VERSUS 24 HOURS AGO. MODERATE TO STRONG WLY/SWLY FLOW PREVAILED
ABOVE 700 MB.

DEEP UPPER TROUGH CONTINUED THIS MORNING OVER THE WRN CONUS WITH LOW
PRESSURE CENTERED OVER SRN IDAHO...AND MID-LEVEL TROUGH AXIS EXTENDED
SWD INTO FAR WRN AZ. THE MID-LEVEL TROUGH AXIS IS PROGGED TO MOVE
RAPIDLY EWD INTO WRN NEW MEXICO BY THIS EVENING. A FEW SHOWERS
PRODUCING VERY LIGHT RAIN MAY OCCUR NEAR THE NEW MEXICO BORDER
TODAY. OTHERWISE...SUNNY SKIES WILL OCCUR ACROSS WRN SECTIONS WITH
MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES ELSEWHERE. CLOUDS WILL
DECREASE THIS EVENING FOLLOWED BY CLEAR SKIES OR MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES
LATE TONIGHT.

A BROAD UPPER TROUGH OVER THE PACIFIC NW/NRN ROCKIES TUE WILL
ADVANCE EWD INTO THE NRN CONUS WED. ANY RAINFALL ASSOCIATED WITH A
SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL REMAIN WELL NE OF THE AREA WED. THEREAFTER...
HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT IS PROGGED TO AMPLIFY OVER THE SWRN CONUS THUR-
SUN. A SOMEWHAT TIGHT SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT MAY PRODUCE LOCALLY
GUSTY ELY WINDS THUR NIGHT-FRI. OTHERWISE...CLEAR SKIES OR MOSTLY
CLEAR SKIES WILL PREVAIL DURING THE LATTER PART OF THE WEEK AND THIS
WEEKEND.

HIGH TEMPS THIS AFTERNOON WILL GENERALLY BE QUITE SIMILAR TO TEMPS
ACHIEVED SUN. A GRADUAL WARMING TREND WILL THEN OCCUR PARTICULARLY
DURING THE LATTER PART OF THE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...VALID THRU 30/18Z.
THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF -SHRA/-TSRA NEAR THE NEW MEXICO BORDER
INTO THIS AFTERNOON. OTHERWISE...A FEW TO BROKEN CLOUDS AT 3-10K FT
AGL WILL OCCUR INTO EARLY THIS EVENING FOLLOWED BY CLEAR SKIES OR
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES LATE TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING. SURFACE WIND
THIS AFTERNOON WILL BE SWLY TO NWLY AT 12-18 KTS WITH GUSTS TO 25
KTS. SURFACE WIND AT OTHER TIMES WILL BE MAINLY LESS THAN 10 KTS.
AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR TAF AMENDMENTS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...A FEW SHOWERS MAY OCCUR NEAR THE NEW MEXICO BORDER
TODAY. OTHERWISE...DRY CONDITIONS WITH A GRADUAL WARMING TREND WILL
PREVAIL THIS WEEK. DAYTIME MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITIES WILL LOWER
THIS WEEK AS DRIER AIR MOVES INTO THE REGION...ALTHOUGH GOOD
OVERNIGHT RECOVERIES ARE STILL EXPECTED. 20-FOOT WINDS WILL BE
WEST/NORTHWEST AT 8-18 MPH TODAY...WITH THE STRONGEST WINDS EAST OF
TUCSON. 20-FOOT WINDS WILL THEN BE LESS THAN 15 MPH TUESDAY THROUGH
THURSDAY. SOME ELEVATED EAST AND SOUTHEAST WINDS MAY OCCUR FRIDAY
AND SATURDAY.

&&

.TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.


&&

$$

VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...YOUTUBE...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/TUCSON

FRANCIS






000
FXUS65 KTWC 291617
AFDTWC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ
915 AM MST MON SEP 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...A FEW SHOWERS MAY OCCUR NEAR THE NEW MEXICO BORDER
TODAY. OTHERWISE...DRY CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL INTO THIS WEEKEND. A
GRADUAL WARMING TREND WILL OCCUR ESPECIALLY DURING THE LATTER PART
OF THE WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT BUILDS OVER THE AREA.

&&

.DISCUSSION...MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES WERE ONGOING FROM TUCSON SWD/WWD...
AND SKIES WERE PARTLY CLOUDY ACROSS NRN GREENLEE/GRAHAM COUNTIES.
DEWPOINTS VALID 16Z RANGED FROM THE MID 50S-LOWER 60S F...AND THESE
TEMPS WERE NEARLY IDENTICAL TO 24 HOURS AGO. SURFACE TEMPS VALID 16Z
WERE ABOUT 2-6 DEGS F COOLER VERSUS THIS TIME SUN. 29/12Z KTWC
SOUNDING PRECIP WATER VALUE WAS 0.98 INCH...DOWN NEARLY 0.20 INCH
VERSUS 24 HOURS AGO. MODERATE TO STRONG WLY/SWLY FLOW PREVAILED
ABOVE 700 MB.

DEEP UPPER TROUGH CONTINUED THIS MORNING OVER THE WRN CONUS WITH LOW
PRESSURE CENTERED OVER SRN IDAHO...AND MID-LEVEL TROUGH AXIS EXTENDED
SWD INTO FAR WRN AZ. THE MID-LEVEL TROUGH AXIS IS PROGGED TO MOVE
RAPIDLY EWD INTO WRN NEW MEXICO BY THIS EVENING. A FEW SHOWERS
PRODUCING VERY LIGHT RAIN MAY OCCUR NEAR THE NEW MEXICO BORDER
TODAY. OTHERWISE...SUNNY SKIES WILL OCCUR ACROSS WRN SECTIONS WITH
MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES ELSEWHERE. CLOUDS WILL
DECREASE THIS EVENING FOLLOWED BY CLEAR SKIES OR MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES
LATE TONIGHT.

A BROAD UPPER TROUGH OVER THE PACIFIC NW/NRN ROCKIES TUE WILL
ADVANCE EWD INTO THE NRN CONUS WED. ANY RAINFALL ASSOCIATED WITH A
SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL REMAIN WELL NE OF THE AREA WED. THEREAFTER...
HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT IS PROGGED TO AMPLIFY OVER THE SWRN CONUS THUR-
SUN. A SOMEWHAT TIGHT SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT MAY PRODUCE LOCALLY
GUSTY ELY WINDS THUR NIGHT-FRI. OTHERWISE...CLEAR SKIES OR MOSTLY
CLEAR SKIES WILL PREVAIL DURING THE LATTER PART OF THE WEEK AND THIS
WEEKEND.

HIGH TEMPS THIS AFTERNOON WILL GENERALLY BE QUITE SIMILAR TO TEMPS
ACHIEVED SUN. A GRADUAL WARMING TREND WILL THEN OCCUR PARTICULARLY
DURING THE LATTER PART OF THE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...VALID THRU 30/18Z.
THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF -SHRA/-TSRA NEAR THE NEW MEXICO BORDER
INTO THIS AFTERNOON. OTHERWISE...A FEW TO BROKEN CLOUDS AT 3-10K FT
AGL WILL OCCUR INTO EARLY THIS EVENING FOLLOWED BY CLEAR SKIES OR
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES LATE TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING. SURFACE WIND
THIS AFTERNOON WILL BE SWLY TO NWLY AT 12-18 KTS WITH GUSTS TO 25
KTS. SURFACE WIND AT OTHER TIMES WILL BE MAINLY LESS THAN 10 KTS.
AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR TAF AMENDMENTS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...A FEW SHOWERS MAY OCCUR NEAR THE NEW MEXICO BORDER
TODAY. OTHERWISE...DRY CONDITIONS WITH A GRADUAL WARMING TREND WILL
PREVAIL THIS WEEK. DAYTIME MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITIES WILL LOWER
THIS WEEK AS DRIER AIR MOVES INTO THE REGION...ALTHOUGH GOOD
OVERNIGHT RECOVERIES ARE STILL EXPECTED. 20-FOOT WINDS WILL BE
WEST/NORTHWEST AT 8-18 MPH TODAY...WITH THE STRONGEST WINDS EAST OF
TUCSON. 20-FOOT WINDS WILL THEN BE LESS THAN 15 MPH TUESDAY THROUGH
THURSDAY. SOME ELEVATED EAST AND SOUTHEAST WINDS MAY OCCUR FRIDAY
AND SATURDAY.

&&

.TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.


&&

$$

VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...YOUTUBE...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/TUCSON

FRANCIS






000
FXUS65 KPSR 291044
AFDPSR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PHOENIX AZ
345 AM MST MON SEP 29 2014

.UPDATE...UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
DRY AND STABLE WEST TO NORTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL ESTABLISH ITSELF OVER
THE AREA THIS WEEK...KEEPING SKIES MOSTLY CLEAR AND ZEROING OUT ANY
CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION. TEMPERATURES WILL OPEN THE WEEK BELOW
NORMAL AND GRADUALLY WARM THROUGH THE WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE
ESTABLISHES ITSELF OVER THE WEST.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
LARGE UPPER LEVEL CLOSED LOW REMAINS OVER MUCH OF THE WESTERN CONUS
THIS AM WITH DRYING WEST FLOW SWEEPING ALONG ITS SOUTHERN FRINGE AND
INTO THE FORECAST AREA. CLOSER TO THE SURFACE...DEWPOINT READINGS
RANGE FROM THE UPPER 30S TO LOW 50S OVER THE WESTERN AZ AND SOUTHEAST
CA DESERTS...WITH STILL ELEVATED READINGS PUSHING 60 DEGREES OVER THE
SOUTH CENTRAL DESERTS. MOISTURE REMAINS RATHER SHALLOW AND CLOSE TO
THE SURFACE WITH FURTHER DRYING NOTED ALOFT ON NEIGHBOR AND AIRCRAFT
SOUNDINGS LAST EVENING AND PWATS GENERALLY BELOW 0.75 INCHES. CLOSER
TO THE LOW COLD CORE...STRATIFORM CLOUDS AND LIGHT PRECIP ACTIVITY
LINGER ACROSS PORTIONS OF UT...SOUTHERN NV AND FAR NORTHWESTERN AZ.
NEARLY CLOUDLESS SKIES ARE IN PLACE OVER OUR FORECAST AREA...WITH
ONLY A THIN BAND OF CU ACROSS SOUTHERN GILA COUNTY ALONG A SMALL
AREA OF UPPER LEVEL ASCENT AND JET ENERGY.

CIRCULATION OF THE UPPER LOW HAS BEEN OPENING UP OVER THE LAST 12
HOURS AS A SHORTWAVE DISTURBANCE CURRENTLY DIGS OVER THE SIERRA.
THIS DISTURBANCE WILL ROTATE THROUGH NORTHERN AZ TODAY BEFORE PASSING
THROUGH THE FOUR CORNERS AS THE PARENT LOW CONTINUES TO KICK OUT
INTO THE PLAINS STATES. EVEN WITH ITS NEAR PROXIMITY...DRIER AND
CONTINUED STABLE CONDITIONS WILL HOLD OVER THE AREA KEEPING CHANCES
FOR ANY PRECIP ACTIVITY WELL NORTH AND NORTHEAST OF THE LOWER DESERT
ELEVATIONS. REINFORCING SHOT OF DRY NORTHWESTERLY FLOW IN THE WAKE OF
THE EXITING UPPER LOW AND WEAK LONGWAVE TROUGHING OVER THE WESTERN
CONUS FURTHER SUPPORT POP CHANCES AT ZERO FOR THE REST OF THE WEEK.
EXPECT CLEAR TO MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND DRY SURFACE CONDITIONS TO TAKE
US INTO OCTOBER AND OUT OF MONSOON 2014.

THROUGH THURSDAY...LONGWAVE TROUGHING WILL HOLD OVER THE WEST WHILE
THE LOWER TO MID ATMOSPHERE LEVELS GRADUALLY WARM...ABOUT 1 TO 2 C
EACH AFTERNOON FROM 850MB TO THE SFC. BEST PERFORMING GRIDDED AND
CONSENSUS TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE ALL POINT TO HIGHS IN THE LOW 90S
EARLY IN THE WEEK REACHING THE MID TO UPPER 90S BY THE LATE
WEEK...WITH 100F (OR JUST WARMER) READINGS FOR YUMA AND EL CENTRO.

BY FRIDAY...RIDGING OFF THE PACIFIC WILL TRANSITION OVER THE WESTERN
CONUS WITH 1000-500MB THICKNESSES PEAKING IN THE LOW 580DM RANGE AND
850MB TEMPS CLIMBING NEAR 24C FOR THE AFTERNOONS THROUGH THE EARLY
WEEKEND. 100F DEGREE READINGS WILL PERSIST OUT WEST AND POSSIBLY
MAKING A RETURN OVER THE SOUTH-CENTRAL AZ DESERTS. OVER THE LAST
NORMAL PERIOD (1981-2010) THE AVERAGE LAST DAY WE`VE SEEN 100F IN
PHOENIX FALLS ON OCT 3RD...AND OCT 5TH FOR YUMA. WHERE THE AFTERNOONS
MAY SEEM WARM TO SOME...THE MORNINGS WILL BE MILD AND CLOSER TOWARD
NORMAL READINGS. BY THE LATE WEEKEND/EARLY NEXT WEEK...RIDGE HEIGHTS
LOOK TO LOWER AND FLATTEN AS THE ACTIVE STORM PATTERN OVER THE
NORTHERN PACIFIC APPROACHES WESTERN NORTH AMERICA. OUTSIDE OF SOME
SLIGHT COOLING POTENTIAL FOR TEMPERATURES...CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY
REMAIN DRY WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT DIURNALLY DRIVEN WINDS.

&&

.AVIATION...
SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA INCLUDING KPHX...KIWA...AND KSDL...
LIGHT SHOWER ACTIVITY AHEAD OF A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE
EASTWARD ACROSS NORTHERN ARIZONA THIS MORNING. MEANWHILE...ACROSS
THE PHOENIX AREA...A BAND OF CLOUDINESS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM
WILL CLIP SOUTH-CENTRAL AZ THIS MORNING. HOWEVER...CIGS ARE NOT
EXPECTED TO DROP BELOW 6-7K FT. A DRIER AND MORE STABLE AIR MASS
WILL SETTLE IN THIS AFTERNOON RESULTING IN CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT
WINDS.

SOUTHWEST ARIZONA AND SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA INCLUDING KIPL AND KBLH...
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES WITH NO AVIATION WEATHER IMPACTS ANTICIPATED.
WINDS WILL GENERALLY REMAIN LIGHT AND OUT OF THE WEST AND NORTHWEST.

AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDED TAFS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...
A GRADUAL WARMING TREND WILL CONTINUE...CLIMBING ABOVE NORMAL BY
NEXT WEEKEND. MINIMUM HUMIDITY LEVELS WILL REMAIN RELATIVELY STEADY
THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD...DROPPING INTO THE MIDDLE TEENS EACH
AFTERNOON ON THE LOWER ELEVATIONS. WINDS WILL BE ON THE LIGHT SIDE
WITH OCCASIONAL AFTERNOON BREEZINESS.

&&

.PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

AZ...NONE.

CA...NONE.

&&

$$

VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/PHOENIX

DISCUSSION...NOLTE
AVIATION...HIRSCH
FIRE WEATHER...AJ





000
FXUS65 KPSR 291044
AFDPSR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PHOENIX AZ
345 AM MST MON SEP 29 2014

.UPDATE...UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
DRY AND STABLE WEST TO NORTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL ESTABLISH ITSELF OVER
THE AREA THIS WEEK...KEEPING SKIES MOSTLY CLEAR AND ZEROING OUT ANY
CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION. TEMPERATURES WILL OPEN THE WEEK BELOW
NORMAL AND GRADUALLY WARM THROUGH THE WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE
ESTABLISHES ITSELF OVER THE WEST.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
LARGE UPPER LEVEL CLOSED LOW REMAINS OVER MUCH OF THE WESTERN CONUS
THIS AM WITH DRYING WEST FLOW SWEEPING ALONG ITS SOUTHERN FRINGE AND
INTO THE FORECAST AREA. CLOSER TO THE SURFACE...DEWPOINT READINGS
RANGE FROM THE UPPER 30S TO LOW 50S OVER THE WESTERN AZ AND SOUTHEAST
CA DESERTS...WITH STILL ELEVATED READINGS PUSHING 60 DEGREES OVER THE
SOUTH CENTRAL DESERTS. MOISTURE REMAINS RATHER SHALLOW AND CLOSE TO
THE SURFACE WITH FURTHER DRYING NOTED ALOFT ON NEIGHBOR AND AIRCRAFT
SOUNDINGS LAST EVENING AND PWATS GENERALLY BELOW 0.75 INCHES. CLOSER
TO THE LOW COLD CORE...STRATIFORM CLOUDS AND LIGHT PRECIP ACTIVITY
LINGER ACROSS PORTIONS OF UT...SOUTHERN NV AND FAR NORTHWESTERN AZ.
NEARLY CLOUDLESS SKIES ARE IN PLACE OVER OUR FORECAST AREA...WITH
ONLY A THIN BAND OF CU ACROSS SOUTHERN GILA COUNTY ALONG A SMALL
AREA OF UPPER LEVEL ASCENT AND JET ENERGY.

CIRCULATION OF THE UPPER LOW HAS BEEN OPENING UP OVER THE LAST 12
HOURS AS A SHORTWAVE DISTURBANCE CURRENTLY DIGS OVER THE SIERRA.
THIS DISTURBANCE WILL ROTATE THROUGH NORTHERN AZ TODAY BEFORE PASSING
THROUGH THE FOUR CORNERS AS THE PARENT LOW CONTINUES TO KICK OUT
INTO THE PLAINS STATES. EVEN WITH ITS NEAR PROXIMITY...DRIER AND
CONTINUED STABLE CONDITIONS WILL HOLD OVER THE AREA KEEPING CHANCES
FOR ANY PRECIP ACTIVITY WELL NORTH AND NORTHEAST OF THE LOWER DESERT
ELEVATIONS. REINFORCING SHOT OF DRY NORTHWESTERLY FLOW IN THE WAKE OF
THE EXITING UPPER LOW AND WEAK LONGWAVE TROUGHING OVER THE WESTERN
CONUS FURTHER SUPPORT POP CHANCES AT ZERO FOR THE REST OF THE WEEK.
EXPECT CLEAR TO MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND DRY SURFACE CONDITIONS TO TAKE
US INTO OCTOBER AND OUT OF MONSOON 2014.

THROUGH THURSDAY...LONGWAVE TROUGHING WILL HOLD OVER THE WEST WHILE
THE LOWER TO MID ATMOSPHERE LEVELS GRADUALLY WARM...ABOUT 1 TO 2 C
EACH AFTERNOON FROM 850MB TO THE SFC. BEST PERFORMING GRIDDED AND
CONSENSUS TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE ALL POINT TO HIGHS IN THE LOW 90S
EARLY IN THE WEEK REACHING THE MID TO UPPER 90S BY THE LATE
WEEK...WITH 100F (OR JUST WARMER) READINGS FOR YUMA AND EL CENTRO.

BY FRIDAY...RIDGING OFF THE PACIFIC WILL TRANSITION OVER THE WESTERN
CONUS WITH 1000-500MB THICKNESSES PEAKING IN THE LOW 580DM RANGE AND
850MB TEMPS CLIMBING NEAR 24C FOR THE AFTERNOONS THROUGH THE EARLY
WEEKEND. 100F DEGREE READINGS WILL PERSIST OUT WEST AND POSSIBLY
MAKING A RETURN OVER THE SOUTH-CENTRAL AZ DESERTS. OVER THE LAST
NORMAL PERIOD (1981-2010) THE AVERAGE LAST DAY WE`VE SEEN 100F IN
PHOENIX FALLS ON OCT 3RD...AND OCT 5TH FOR YUMA. WHERE THE AFTERNOONS
MAY SEEM WARM TO SOME...THE MORNINGS WILL BE MILD AND CLOSER TOWARD
NORMAL READINGS. BY THE LATE WEEKEND/EARLY NEXT WEEK...RIDGE HEIGHTS
LOOK TO LOWER AND FLATTEN AS THE ACTIVE STORM PATTERN OVER THE
NORTHERN PACIFIC APPROACHES WESTERN NORTH AMERICA. OUTSIDE OF SOME
SLIGHT COOLING POTENTIAL FOR TEMPERATURES...CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY
REMAIN DRY WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT DIURNALLY DRIVEN WINDS.

&&

.AVIATION...
SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA INCLUDING KPHX...KIWA...AND KSDL...
LIGHT SHOWER ACTIVITY AHEAD OF A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE
EASTWARD ACROSS NORTHERN ARIZONA THIS MORNING. MEANWHILE...ACROSS
THE PHOENIX AREA...A BAND OF CLOUDINESS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM
WILL CLIP SOUTH-CENTRAL AZ THIS MORNING. HOWEVER...CIGS ARE NOT
EXPECTED TO DROP BELOW 6-7K FT. A DRIER AND MORE STABLE AIR MASS
WILL SETTLE IN THIS AFTERNOON RESULTING IN CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT
WINDS.

SOUTHWEST ARIZONA AND SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA INCLUDING KIPL AND KBLH...
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES WITH NO AVIATION WEATHER IMPACTS ANTICIPATED.
WINDS WILL GENERALLY REMAIN LIGHT AND OUT OF THE WEST AND NORTHWEST.

AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDED TAFS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...
A GRADUAL WARMING TREND WILL CONTINUE...CLIMBING ABOVE NORMAL BY
NEXT WEEKEND. MINIMUM HUMIDITY LEVELS WILL REMAIN RELATIVELY STEADY
THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD...DROPPING INTO THE MIDDLE TEENS EACH
AFTERNOON ON THE LOWER ELEVATIONS. WINDS WILL BE ON THE LIGHT SIDE
WITH OCCASIONAL AFTERNOON BREEZINESS.

&&

.PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

AZ...NONE.

CA...NONE.

&&

$$

VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/PHOENIX

DISCUSSION...NOLTE
AVIATION...HIRSCH
FIRE WEATHER...AJ






000
FXUS65 KFGZ 291004
AFDFGZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ
305 AM MST MON SEP 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL LINGER TODAY ACROSS NORTHWEST
ARIZONA...EXTREME NORTHERN ARIZONA...AND SOUTHERN APACHE COUNTY.
COOL DRY AIR WILL MOVE IN FROM THE WEST LATE THIS AFTERNOON. EXPECT
COOLER NIGHTS WITH NO PRECIPITATION THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...THE LARGE UPPER LEVEL CUT-OFF LOW HAS ONE MORE
DISTURBANCE ROTATING THROUGH THE BASE OF THE TROUGH THIS
MORNING...AND THEN THE SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO HEAD NORTHEAST DURING
THE DAY TODAY. THIS LAST DISTURBANCE IS CURRENTLY SENDING A BAND OF
CLOUDS AND SHOWERS ACROSS SOUTHERN NEVADA...WITH THIS ACTIVITY
FORECAST TO CROSS NORTHWEST AND NORTHERN ARIZONA FROM KIGM TO KGCN
TO K0V7 TO KFMN ACROSS NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE STATE THIS MORNING
AND EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. IN ADDITION...ENOUGH MID LEVEL MOISTURE
MAY BRING AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THE DECAYING
FRONTAL BOUNDARY EXTENDING FROM SOUTHERN APACHE COUNTY NORTHEAST
INTO NORTH CENTRAL NEW MEXICO.

THIS PASSAGE OF THIS SYSTEM WILL BRING A DRY...COOL...AND STABLE
AIRMASS INTO NORTHERN ARIZONA TO REMIND US THAT FALL WEATHER IS
HERE. EXPECT COLDER OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES AT SOME MOUNTAIN
LOCATIONS APPROACHING OR EXCEEDING FREEZING FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF
MORNINGS THROUGH WEDNESDAY. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL RUN 4-8 DEGREES
BELOW NORMAL.

THE LAST TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL PASS THROUGH THE NORTHERN
ROCKIES ON WEDNESDAY...THEN A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE IS FORECAST TO
BUILD INTO THE INTERMOUNTAIN STATES WITH WARMER AND DRY CONDITIONS
LASTING THROUGH NEXT MONDAY...10/6.

&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 12Z PACKAGE...AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVING
ACROSS FAR NRN AZ TODAY WILL BRING BKN CLOUD DECKS AT 6-10 KFT AGL.
ISOLATED -SHRA/ -TSRA FROM KGCN-KRQE NORTHWARD THROUGH 00Z TUES.
AFTERNOON SFC WINDS WESTERLY 10-20 KTS. AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT
UPDATED FOR AMENDMENTS.

&&

.FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC.........TC
AVIATION.......DL

FOR NORTHERN ARIZONA WEATHER INFORMATION VISIT
WEATHER.GOV/FLAGSTAFF









000
FXUS65 KPSR 291002 CCA
AFDPSR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PHOENIX AZ
300 AM MST MON SEP 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
DRY AND STABLE WEST TO NORTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL ESTABLISH ITSELF OVER
THE AREA THIS WEEK...KEEPING SKIES MOSTLY CLEAR AND ZEROING OUT ANY
CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION. TEMPERATURES WILL OPEN THE WEEK BELOW
NORMAL AND GRADUALLY WARM THROUGH THE WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE
ESTABLISHES ITSELF OVER THE WEST.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
LARGE UPPER LEVEL CLOSED LOW REMAINS OVER MUCH OF THE WESTERN CONUS
THIS AM WITH DRYING WEST FLOW SWEEPING ALONG ITS SOUTHERN FRINGE AND
INTO THE FORECAST AREA. CLOSER TO THE SURFACE...DEWPOINT READINGS
RANGE FROM THE UPPER 30S TO LOW 50S OVER THE WESTERN AZ AND SOUTHEAST
CA DESERTS...WITH STILL ELEVATED READINGS PUSHING 60 DEGREES OVER THE
SOUTH CENTRAL DESERTS. MOISTURE REMAINS RATHER SHALLOW AND CLOSE TO
THE SURFACE WITH FURTHER DRYING NOTED ALOFT ON NEIGHBOR AND AIRCRAFT
SOUNDINGS LAST EVENING AND PWATS GENERALLY BELOW 0.75 INCHES. CLOSER
TO THE LOW COLD CORE...STRATIFORM CLOUDS AND LIGHT PRECIP ACTIVITY
LINGER ACROSS PORTIONS OF UT...SOUTHERN NV AND FAR NORTHWESTERN AZ.
NEARLY CLOUDLESS SKIES ARE IN PLACE OVER OUR FORECAST AREA...WITH
ONLY A THIN BAND OF CU ACROSS SOUTHERN GILA COUNTY ALONG A SMALL
AREA OF UPPER LEVEL ASCENT AND JET ENERGY.

CIRCULATION OF THE UPPER LOW HAS BEEN OPENING UP OVER THE LAST 12
HOURS AS A SHORTWAVE DISTURBANCE CURRENTLY DIGS OVER THE SIERRA.
THIS DISTURBANCE WILL ROTATE THROUGH NORTHERN AZ TODAY BEFORE PASSING
THROUGH THE FOUR CORNERS AS THE PARENT LOW CONTINUES TO KICK OUT
INTO THE PLAINS STATES. EVEN WITH ITS NEAR PROXIMITY...DRIER AND
CONTINUED STABLE CONDITIONS WILL HOLD OVER THE AREA KEEPING CHANCES
FOR ANY PRECIP ACTIVITY WELL NORTH AND NORTHEAST OF THE LOWER DESERT
ELEVATIONS. REINFORCING SHOT OF DRY NORTHWESTERLY FLOW IN THE WAKE OF
THE EXITING UPPER LOW AND WEAK LONGWAVE TROUGHING OVER THE WESTERN
CONUS FURTHER SUPPORT POP CHANCES AT ZERO FOR THE REST OF THE WEEK.
EXPECT CLEAR TO MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND DRY SURFACE CONDITIONS TO TAKE
US INTO OCTOBER AND OUT OF MONSOON 2014.

THROUGH THURSDAY...LONGWAVE TROUGHING WILL HOLD OVER THE WEST WHILE
THE LOWER TO MID ATMOSPHERE LEVELS GRADUALLY WARM...ABOUT 1 TO 2 C
EACH AFTERNOON FROM 850MB TO THE SFC. BEST PERFORMING GRIDDED AND
CONSENSUS TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE ALL POINT TO HIGHS IN THE LOW 90S
EARLY IN THE WEEK REACHING THE MID TO UPPER 90S BY THE LATE
WEEK...WITH 100F (OR JUST WARMER) READINGS FOR YUMA AND EL CENTRO.

BY FRIDAY...RIDGING OFF THE PACIFIC WILL TRANSITION OVER THE WESTERN
CONUS WITH 1000-500MB THICKNESSES PEAKING IN THE LOW 580DM RANGE AND
850MB TEMPS CLIMBING NEAR 24C FOR THE AFTERNOONS THROUGH THE EARLY
WEEKEND. 100F DEGREE READINGS WILL PERSIST OUT WEST AND POSSIBLY
MAKING A RETURN OVER THE SOUTH-CENTRAL AZ DESERTS. OVER THE LAST
NORMAL PERIOD (1981-2010) THE AVERAGE LAST DAY WE`VE SEEN 100F IN
PHOENIX FALLS ON OCT 3RD...AND OCT 5TH FOR YUMA. WHERE THE AFTERNOONS
MAY SEEM WARM TO SOME...THE MORNINGS WILL BE MILD AND CLOSER TOWARD
NORMAL READINGS. BY THE LATE WEEKEND/EARLY NEXT WEEK...RIDGE HEIGHTS
LOOK TO LOWER AND FLATTEN AS THE ACTIVE STORM PATTERN OVER THE
NORTHERN PACIFIC APPROACHES WESTERN NORTH AMERICA. OUTSIDE OF SOME
SLIGHT COOLING POTENTIAL FOR TEMPERATURES...CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY
REMAIN DRY WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT DIURNALLY DRIVEN WINDS.

&&

.AVIATION...
SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA INCLUDING KPHX...KIWA...AND KSDL...
SKIES HAVE CLEARED FOLLOWING SUNSET AND LACK OF MIXING. WESTERLY FLOW
ALOFT CONTINUES TO ADVECT DRIER AIR ACROSS THE DESERTS...EXPECT GENLY
CLEAR SKIES AT THE TERMINALS THROUGH MONDAY EVENING. THERE MAY BE A
FEW CUMULUS AROUND MONDAY AFTN BUT THEY SHOULD LARGELY BE CONFINED TO
HIGHER TERRAIN AREAS NORTH AND EAST OF PHOENIX. OTHERWISE WINDS TO BE
ON THE LIGHT SIDE FAVORING NORMAL DIURNAL DIRECTIONS NEXT 24 HOURS.
NO AVIATION CONCERNS AT THE TAF SITES THRU MONDAY EVENING.

SOUTHWEST ARIZONA AND SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA INCLUDING KIPL AND KBLH...
CLEAR SKIES WITH SOUTHWEST AND WEST WINDS PREVAILING. IMPERIAL
VALLEY MAY SEE SOME GUSTS OF TO 20 KTS THROUGH 08Z. NO AVIATION
IMPACTS NEXT 24 HOURS AT LEAST.

AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDED TAFS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...
A GRADUAL WARMING TREND WILL CONTINUE...CLIMBING ABOVE NORMAL BY
NEXT WEEKEND. MINIMUM HUMIDITY LEVELS WILL REMAIN RELATIVELY STEADY
THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD...DROPPING INTO THE MIDDLE TEENS EACH
AFTERNOON ON THE LOWER ELEVATIONS. WINDS WILL BE ON THE LIGHT SIDE
WITH OCCASIONAL AFTERNOON BREEZINESS.

&&

.PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

AZ...NONE.

CA...NONE.

&&

$$

VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/PHOENIX

DISCUSSION...NOLTE
AVIATION...CB
FIRE WEATHER...AJ








000
FXUS65 KPSR 291002 CCA
AFDPSR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PHOENIX AZ
300 AM MST MON SEP 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
DRY AND STABLE WEST TO NORTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL ESTABLISH ITSELF OVER
THE AREA THIS WEEK...KEEPING SKIES MOSTLY CLEAR AND ZEROING OUT ANY
CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION. TEMPERATURES WILL OPEN THE WEEK BELOW
NORMAL AND GRADUALLY WARM THROUGH THE WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE
ESTABLISHES ITSELF OVER THE WEST.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
LARGE UPPER LEVEL CLOSED LOW REMAINS OVER MUCH OF THE WESTERN CONUS
THIS AM WITH DRYING WEST FLOW SWEEPING ALONG ITS SOUTHERN FRINGE AND
INTO THE FORECAST AREA. CLOSER TO THE SURFACE...DEWPOINT READINGS
RANGE FROM THE UPPER 30S TO LOW 50S OVER THE WESTERN AZ AND SOUTHEAST
CA DESERTS...WITH STILL ELEVATED READINGS PUSHING 60 DEGREES OVER THE
SOUTH CENTRAL DESERTS. MOISTURE REMAINS RATHER SHALLOW AND CLOSE TO
THE SURFACE WITH FURTHER DRYING NOTED ALOFT ON NEIGHBOR AND AIRCRAFT
SOUNDINGS LAST EVENING AND PWATS GENERALLY BELOW 0.75 INCHES. CLOSER
TO THE LOW COLD CORE...STRATIFORM CLOUDS AND LIGHT PRECIP ACTIVITY
LINGER ACROSS PORTIONS OF UT...SOUTHERN NV AND FAR NORTHWESTERN AZ.
NEARLY CLOUDLESS SKIES ARE IN PLACE OVER OUR FORECAST AREA...WITH
ONLY A THIN BAND OF CU ACROSS SOUTHERN GILA COUNTY ALONG A SMALL
AREA OF UPPER LEVEL ASCENT AND JET ENERGY.

CIRCULATION OF THE UPPER LOW HAS BEEN OPENING UP OVER THE LAST 12
HOURS AS A SHORTWAVE DISTURBANCE CURRENTLY DIGS OVER THE SIERRA.
THIS DISTURBANCE WILL ROTATE THROUGH NORTHERN AZ TODAY BEFORE PASSING
THROUGH THE FOUR CORNERS AS THE PARENT LOW CONTINUES TO KICK OUT
INTO THE PLAINS STATES. EVEN WITH ITS NEAR PROXIMITY...DRIER AND
CONTINUED STABLE CONDITIONS WILL HOLD OVER THE AREA KEEPING CHANCES
FOR ANY PRECIP ACTIVITY WELL NORTH AND NORTHEAST OF THE LOWER DESERT
ELEVATIONS. REINFORCING SHOT OF DRY NORTHWESTERLY FLOW IN THE WAKE OF
THE EXITING UPPER LOW AND WEAK LONGWAVE TROUGHING OVER THE WESTERN
CONUS FURTHER SUPPORT POP CHANCES AT ZERO FOR THE REST OF THE WEEK.
EXPECT CLEAR TO MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND DRY SURFACE CONDITIONS TO TAKE
US INTO OCTOBER AND OUT OF MONSOON 2014.

THROUGH THURSDAY...LONGWAVE TROUGHING WILL HOLD OVER THE WEST WHILE
THE LOWER TO MID ATMOSPHERE LEVELS GRADUALLY WARM...ABOUT 1 TO 2 C
EACH AFTERNOON FROM 850MB TO THE SFC. BEST PERFORMING GRIDDED AND
CONSENSUS TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE ALL POINT TO HIGHS IN THE LOW 90S
EARLY IN THE WEEK REACHING THE MID TO UPPER 90S BY THE LATE
WEEK...WITH 100F (OR JUST WARMER) READINGS FOR YUMA AND EL CENTRO.

BY FRIDAY...RIDGING OFF THE PACIFIC WILL TRANSITION OVER THE WESTERN
CONUS WITH 1000-500MB THICKNESSES PEAKING IN THE LOW 580DM RANGE AND
850MB TEMPS CLIMBING NEAR 24C FOR THE AFTERNOONS THROUGH THE EARLY
WEEKEND. 100F DEGREE READINGS WILL PERSIST OUT WEST AND POSSIBLY
MAKING A RETURN OVER THE SOUTH-CENTRAL AZ DESERTS. OVER THE LAST
NORMAL PERIOD (1981-2010) THE AVERAGE LAST DAY WE`VE SEEN 100F IN
PHOENIX FALLS ON OCT 3RD...AND OCT 5TH FOR YUMA. WHERE THE AFTERNOONS
MAY SEEM WARM TO SOME...THE MORNINGS WILL BE MILD AND CLOSER TOWARD
NORMAL READINGS. BY THE LATE WEEKEND/EARLY NEXT WEEK...RIDGE HEIGHTS
LOOK TO LOWER AND FLATTEN AS THE ACTIVE STORM PATTERN OVER THE
NORTHERN PACIFIC APPROACHES WESTERN NORTH AMERICA. OUTSIDE OF SOME
SLIGHT COOLING POTENTIAL FOR TEMPERATURES...CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY
REMAIN DRY WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT DIURNALLY DRIVEN WINDS.

&&

.AVIATION...
SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA INCLUDING KPHX...KIWA...AND KSDL...
SKIES HAVE CLEARED FOLLOWING SUNSET AND LACK OF MIXING. WESTERLY FLOW
ALOFT CONTINUES TO ADVECT DRIER AIR ACROSS THE DESERTS...EXPECT GENLY
CLEAR SKIES AT THE TERMINALS THROUGH MONDAY EVENING. THERE MAY BE A
FEW CUMULUS AROUND MONDAY AFTN BUT THEY SHOULD LARGELY BE CONFINED TO
HIGHER TERRAIN AREAS NORTH AND EAST OF PHOENIX. OTHERWISE WINDS TO BE
ON THE LIGHT SIDE FAVORING NORMAL DIURNAL DIRECTIONS NEXT 24 HOURS.
NO AVIATION CONCERNS AT THE TAF SITES THRU MONDAY EVENING.

SOUTHWEST ARIZONA AND SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA INCLUDING KIPL AND KBLH...
CLEAR SKIES WITH SOUTHWEST AND WEST WINDS PREVAILING. IMPERIAL
VALLEY MAY SEE SOME GUSTS OF TO 20 KTS THROUGH 08Z. NO AVIATION
IMPACTS NEXT 24 HOURS AT LEAST.

AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDED TAFS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...
A GRADUAL WARMING TREND WILL CONTINUE...CLIMBING ABOVE NORMAL BY
NEXT WEEKEND. MINIMUM HUMIDITY LEVELS WILL REMAIN RELATIVELY STEADY
THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD...DROPPING INTO THE MIDDLE TEENS EACH
AFTERNOON ON THE LOWER ELEVATIONS. WINDS WILL BE ON THE LIGHT SIDE
WITH OCCASIONAL AFTERNOON BREEZINESS.

&&

.PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

AZ...NONE.

CA...NONE.

&&

$$

VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/PHOENIX

DISCUSSION...NOLTE
AVIATION...CB
FIRE WEATHER...AJ









000
FXUS65 KPSR 290956
AFDPSR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PHOENIX AZ
256 AM MST MON SEP 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
DRY AND STABLE WEST TO NORTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL ESTABLISH ITSELF OVER
THE AREA THIS WEEK...KEEPING SKIES MOSTLY CLEAR AND ZEROING OUT ANY
CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION. TEMPERATURES WILL OPEN THE WEEK BELOW
NORMAL AND GRADUALLY WARM THROUGH THE WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE
ESTABLISHES ITSELF OVER THE WEST.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
LARGE UPPER LEVEL CLOSED LOW REMAINS OVER MUCH OF THE WESTERN CONUS
THIS AM WITH DRYING WEST FLOW SWEEPING ALONG ITS SOUTHERN FRINGE AND
INTO THE FORECAST AREA. CLOSER TO THE SURFACE...DEWPOINT READINGS
RANGE FROM THE UPPER 30S TO LOW 50S OVER THE WESTERN AZ AND SOUTHEAST
CA DESERTS...WITH STILL ELEVATED READINGS PUSHING 60 DEGREES OVER THE
SOUTH CENTRAL DESERTS. MOISTURE REMAINS RATHER SHALLOW AND CLOSE TO
THE SURFACE WITH FURTHER DRYING NOTED ALOFT ON NEIGHBOR AND AIRCRAFT
SOUNDINGS LAST EVENING AND PWATS GENERALLY BELOW 0.75 INCHES. CLOSER
TO THE LOW COLD CORE...STRATIFORM CLOUDS AND LIGHT PRECIP ACTIVITY
LINGER ACROSS PORTIONS OF UT...SOUTHERN NV AND FAR NORTHWESTERN AZ.
NEARLY CLOUDLESS SKIES ARE IN PLACE OVER OUR FORECAST AREA...WITH
ONLY A THIN BAND OF CU ACROSS SOUTHERN GILA COUNTY ALONG A SMALL
AREA OF UPPER LEVEL ASCENT AND JET ENERGY.

CIRCULATION OF THE UPPER LOW HAS BEEN OPENING UP OVER THE LAST 12
HOURS AS A SHORTWAVE DISTURBANCE CURRENTLY DIGS OVER THE SIERRA.
THIS DISTURBANCE WILL ROTATE THROUGH NORTHERN AZ TODAY BEFORE PASSING
THROUGH THE FOUR CORNERS AS THE PARENT LOW CONTINUES TO KICK OUT
INTO THE PLAINS STATES. EVEN WITH ITS NEAR PROXIMITY...DRIER AND
CONTINUED STABLE CONDITIONS WILL HOLD OVER THE AREA KEEPING CHANCES
FOR ANY PRECIP ACTIVITY WELL NORTH AND NORTHEAST OF THE LOWER DESERT
ELEVATIONS. REINFORCING SHOT OF DRY NORTHWESTERLY FLOW IN THE WAKE OF
THE EXITING UPPER LOW AND WEAK LONGWAVE TROUGHING OVER THE WESTERN
CONUS FURTHER SUPPORT POP CHANCES AT ZERO FOR THE REST OF THE WEEK.
EXPECT CLEAR TO MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND DRY SURFACE CONDITIONS TO TAKE
US INTO OCTOBER AND OUT OF MONSOON 2014.

THROUGH THURSDAY...LONGWAVE TROUGHING WILL HOLD OVER THE WEST WHILE
THE LOWER TO MID ATMOSPHERE LEVELS GRADUALLY WARM...ABOUT 1 TO 2 C
EACH AFTERNOON FROM 850MB TO THE SFC. BEST PERFORMING GRIDDED AND
CONSENSUS TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE ALL POINT TO HIGHS IN THE LOW 90S
EARLY IN THE WEEK REACHING THE MID TO UPPER 90S BY THE LATE
WEEK...WITH 100F (OR JUST WARMER) READINGS FOR YUMA AND EL CENTRO.

BY FRIDAY...RIDGING OFF THE PACIFIC WILL TRANSITION OVER THE WESTERN
CONUS WITH 1000-500MB THICKNESSES PEAKING IN THE LOW 580DM RANGE AND
850MB TEMPS CLIMBING NEAR 27C FOR THE AFTERNOONS THROUGH THE EARLY
WEEKEND. 100F DEGREE READINGS WILL PERSIST OUT WEST AND POSSIBLY
MAKING A RETURN OVER THE SOUTH-CENTRAL AZ DESERTS. OVER THE LAST
NORMAL PERIOD (1981-2010) THE AVERAGE LAST DAY WE`VE SEEN 100F IN
PHOENIX FALLS ON OCT 3RD...AND OCT 5TH FOR YUMA. WHERE THE AFTERNOONS
MAY SEEM WARM TO SOME...THE MORNINGS WILL BE MILD AND CLOSER TOWARD
NORMAL READINGS. BY THE LATE WEEKEND/EARLY NEXT WEEK...RIDGE HEIGHTS
LOOK TO LOWER AND FLATTEN AS THE ACTIVE STORM PATTERN OVER THE
NORTHERN PACIFIC APPROACHES WESTERN NORTH AMERICA. OUTSIDE OF SOME
SLIGHT COOLING POTENTIAL FOR TEMPERATURES...CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY
REMAIN DRY WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT DIURNALLY DRIVEN WINDS.

&&

.AVIATION...
SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA INCLUDING KPHX...KIWA...AND KSDL...
SKIES HAVE CLEARED FOLLOWING SUNSET AND LACK OF MIXING. WESTERLY FLOW
ALOFT CONTINUES TO ADVECT DRIER AIR ACROSS THE DESERTS...EXPECT GENLY
CLEAR SKIES AT THE TERMINALS THROUGH MONDAY EVENING. THERE MAY BE A
FEW CUMULUS AROUND MONDAY AFTN BUT THEY SHOULD LARGELY BE CONFINED TO
HIGHER TERRAIN AREAS NORTH AND EAST OF PHOENIX. OTHERWISE WINDS TO BE
ON THE LIGHT SIDE FAVORING NORMAL DIURNAL DIRECTIONS NEXT 24 HOURS.
NO AVIATION CONCERNS AT THE TAF SITES THRU MONDAY EVENING.

SOUTHWEST ARIZONA AND SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA INCLUDING KIPL AND KBLH...
CLEAR SKIES WITH SOUTHWEST AND WEST WINDS PREVAILING. IMPERIAL
VALLEY MAY SEE SOME GUSTS OF TO 20 KTS THROUGH 08Z. NO AVIATION
IMPACTS NEXT 24 HOURS AT LEAST.

AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDED TAFS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...
A GRADUAL WARMING TREND WILL CONTINUE...CLIMBING ABOVE NORMAL BY
NEXT WEEKEND. MINIMUM HUMIDITY LEVELS WILL REMAIN RELATIVELY STEADY
THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD...DROPPING INTO THE MIDDLE TEENS EACH
AFTERNOON ON THE LOWER ELEVATIONS. WINDS WILL BE ON THE LIGHT SIDE
WITH OCCASIONAL AFTERNOON BREEZINESS.

&&

.PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

AZ...NONE.

CA...NONE.

&&

$$

VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/PHOENIX

DISCUSSION...NOLTE
AVIATION...CB
FIRE WEATHER...AJ






000
FXUS65 KPSR 290956
AFDPSR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PHOENIX AZ
256 AM MST MON SEP 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
DRY AND STABLE WEST TO NORTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL ESTABLISH ITSELF OVER
THE AREA THIS WEEK...KEEPING SKIES MOSTLY CLEAR AND ZEROING OUT ANY
CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION. TEMPERATURES WILL OPEN THE WEEK BELOW
NORMAL AND GRADUALLY WARM THROUGH THE WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE
ESTABLISHES ITSELF OVER THE WEST.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
LARGE UPPER LEVEL CLOSED LOW REMAINS OVER MUCH OF THE WESTERN CONUS
THIS AM WITH DRYING WEST FLOW SWEEPING ALONG ITS SOUTHERN FRINGE AND
INTO THE FORECAST AREA. CLOSER TO THE SURFACE...DEWPOINT READINGS
RANGE FROM THE UPPER 30S TO LOW 50S OVER THE WESTERN AZ AND SOUTHEAST
CA DESERTS...WITH STILL ELEVATED READINGS PUSHING 60 DEGREES OVER THE
SOUTH CENTRAL DESERTS. MOISTURE REMAINS RATHER SHALLOW AND CLOSE TO
THE SURFACE WITH FURTHER DRYING NOTED ALOFT ON NEIGHBOR AND AIRCRAFT
SOUNDINGS LAST EVENING AND PWATS GENERALLY BELOW 0.75 INCHES. CLOSER
TO THE LOW COLD CORE...STRATIFORM CLOUDS AND LIGHT PRECIP ACTIVITY
LINGER ACROSS PORTIONS OF UT...SOUTHERN NV AND FAR NORTHWESTERN AZ.
NEARLY CLOUDLESS SKIES ARE IN PLACE OVER OUR FORECAST AREA...WITH
ONLY A THIN BAND OF CU ACROSS SOUTHERN GILA COUNTY ALONG A SMALL
AREA OF UPPER LEVEL ASCENT AND JET ENERGY.

CIRCULATION OF THE UPPER LOW HAS BEEN OPENING UP OVER THE LAST 12
HOURS AS A SHORTWAVE DISTURBANCE CURRENTLY DIGS OVER THE SIERRA.
THIS DISTURBANCE WILL ROTATE THROUGH NORTHERN AZ TODAY BEFORE PASSING
THROUGH THE FOUR CORNERS AS THE PARENT LOW CONTINUES TO KICK OUT
INTO THE PLAINS STATES. EVEN WITH ITS NEAR PROXIMITY...DRIER AND
CONTINUED STABLE CONDITIONS WILL HOLD OVER THE AREA KEEPING CHANCES
FOR ANY PRECIP ACTIVITY WELL NORTH AND NORTHEAST OF THE LOWER DESERT
ELEVATIONS. REINFORCING SHOT OF DRY NORTHWESTERLY FLOW IN THE WAKE OF
THE EXITING UPPER LOW AND WEAK LONGWAVE TROUGHING OVER THE WESTERN
CONUS FURTHER SUPPORT POP CHANCES AT ZERO FOR THE REST OF THE WEEK.
EXPECT CLEAR TO MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND DRY SURFACE CONDITIONS TO TAKE
US INTO OCTOBER AND OUT OF MONSOON 2014.

THROUGH THURSDAY...LONGWAVE TROUGHING WILL HOLD OVER THE WEST WHILE
THE LOWER TO MID ATMOSPHERE LEVELS GRADUALLY WARM...ABOUT 1 TO 2 C
EACH AFTERNOON FROM 850MB TO THE SFC. BEST PERFORMING GRIDDED AND
CONSENSUS TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE ALL POINT TO HIGHS IN THE LOW 90S
EARLY IN THE WEEK REACHING THE MID TO UPPER 90S BY THE LATE
WEEK...WITH 100F (OR JUST WARMER) READINGS FOR YUMA AND EL CENTRO.

BY FRIDAY...RIDGING OFF THE PACIFIC WILL TRANSITION OVER THE WESTERN
CONUS WITH 1000-500MB THICKNESSES PEAKING IN THE LOW 580DM RANGE AND
850MB TEMPS CLIMBING NEAR 27C FOR THE AFTERNOONS THROUGH THE EARLY
WEEKEND. 100F DEGREE READINGS WILL PERSIST OUT WEST AND POSSIBLY
MAKING A RETURN OVER THE SOUTH-CENTRAL AZ DESERTS. OVER THE LAST
NORMAL PERIOD (1981-2010) THE AVERAGE LAST DAY WE`VE SEEN 100F IN
PHOENIX FALLS ON OCT 3RD...AND OCT 5TH FOR YUMA. WHERE THE AFTERNOONS
MAY SEEM WARM TO SOME...THE MORNINGS WILL BE MILD AND CLOSER TOWARD
NORMAL READINGS. BY THE LATE WEEKEND/EARLY NEXT WEEK...RIDGE HEIGHTS
LOOK TO LOWER AND FLATTEN AS THE ACTIVE STORM PATTERN OVER THE
NORTHERN PACIFIC APPROACHES WESTERN NORTH AMERICA. OUTSIDE OF SOME
SLIGHT COOLING POTENTIAL FOR TEMPERATURES...CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY
REMAIN DRY WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT DIURNALLY DRIVEN WINDS.

&&

.AVIATION...
SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA INCLUDING KPHX...KIWA...AND KSDL...
SKIES HAVE CLEARED FOLLOWING SUNSET AND LACK OF MIXING. WESTERLY FLOW
ALOFT CONTINUES TO ADVECT DRIER AIR ACROSS THE DESERTS...EXPECT GENLY
CLEAR SKIES AT THE TERMINALS THROUGH MONDAY EVENING. THERE MAY BE A
FEW CUMULUS AROUND MONDAY AFTN BUT THEY SHOULD LARGELY BE CONFINED TO
HIGHER TERRAIN AREAS NORTH AND EAST OF PHOENIX. OTHERWISE WINDS TO BE
ON THE LIGHT SIDE FAVORING NORMAL DIURNAL DIRECTIONS NEXT 24 HOURS.
NO AVIATION CONCERNS AT THE TAF SITES THRU MONDAY EVENING.

SOUTHWEST ARIZONA AND SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA INCLUDING KIPL AND KBLH...
CLEAR SKIES WITH SOUTHWEST AND WEST WINDS PREVAILING. IMPERIAL
VALLEY MAY SEE SOME GUSTS OF TO 20 KTS THROUGH 08Z. NO AVIATION
IMPACTS NEXT 24 HOURS AT LEAST.

AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDED TAFS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...
A GRADUAL WARMING TREND WILL CONTINUE...CLIMBING ABOVE NORMAL BY
NEXT WEEKEND. MINIMUM HUMIDITY LEVELS WILL REMAIN RELATIVELY STEADY
THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD...DROPPING INTO THE MIDDLE TEENS EACH
AFTERNOON ON THE LOWER ELEVATIONS. WINDS WILL BE ON THE LIGHT SIDE
WITH OCCASIONAL AFTERNOON BREEZINESS.

&&

.PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

AZ...NONE.

CA...NONE.

&&

$$

VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/PHOENIX

DISCUSSION...NOLTE
AVIATION...CB
FIRE WEATHER...AJ






000
FXUS65 KPSR 290956
AFDPSR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PHOENIX AZ
256 AM MST MON SEP 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
DRY AND STABLE WEST TO NORTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL ESTABLISH ITSELF OVER
THE AREA THIS WEEK...KEEPING SKIES MOSTLY CLEAR AND ZEROING OUT ANY
CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION. TEMPERATURES WILL OPEN THE WEEK BELOW
NORMAL AND GRADUALLY WARM THROUGH THE WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE
ESTABLISHES ITSELF OVER THE WEST.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
LARGE UPPER LEVEL CLOSED LOW REMAINS OVER MUCH OF THE WESTERN CONUS
THIS AM WITH DRYING WEST FLOW SWEEPING ALONG ITS SOUTHERN FRINGE AND
INTO THE FORECAST AREA. CLOSER TO THE SURFACE...DEWPOINT READINGS
RANGE FROM THE UPPER 30S TO LOW 50S OVER THE WESTERN AZ AND SOUTHEAST
CA DESERTS...WITH STILL ELEVATED READINGS PUSHING 60 DEGREES OVER THE
SOUTH CENTRAL DESERTS. MOISTURE REMAINS RATHER SHALLOW AND CLOSE TO
THE SURFACE WITH FURTHER DRYING NOTED ALOFT ON NEIGHBOR AND AIRCRAFT
SOUNDINGS LAST EVENING AND PWATS GENERALLY BELOW 0.75 INCHES. CLOSER
TO THE LOW COLD CORE...STRATIFORM CLOUDS AND LIGHT PRECIP ACTIVITY
LINGER ACROSS PORTIONS OF UT...SOUTHERN NV AND FAR NORTHWESTERN AZ.
NEARLY CLOUDLESS SKIES ARE IN PLACE OVER OUR FORECAST AREA...WITH
ONLY A THIN BAND OF CU ACROSS SOUTHERN GILA COUNTY ALONG A SMALL
AREA OF UPPER LEVEL ASCENT AND JET ENERGY.

CIRCULATION OF THE UPPER LOW HAS BEEN OPENING UP OVER THE LAST 12
HOURS AS A SHORTWAVE DISTURBANCE CURRENTLY DIGS OVER THE SIERRA.
THIS DISTURBANCE WILL ROTATE THROUGH NORTHERN AZ TODAY BEFORE PASSING
THROUGH THE FOUR CORNERS AS THE PARENT LOW CONTINUES TO KICK OUT
INTO THE PLAINS STATES. EVEN WITH ITS NEAR PROXIMITY...DRIER AND
CONTINUED STABLE CONDITIONS WILL HOLD OVER THE AREA KEEPING CHANCES
FOR ANY PRECIP ACTIVITY WELL NORTH AND NORTHEAST OF THE LOWER DESERT
ELEVATIONS. REINFORCING SHOT OF DRY NORTHWESTERLY FLOW IN THE WAKE OF
THE EXITING UPPER LOW AND WEAK LONGWAVE TROUGHING OVER THE WESTERN
CONUS FURTHER SUPPORT POP CHANCES AT ZERO FOR THE REST OF THE WEEK.
EXPECT CLEAR TO MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND DRY SURFACE CONDITIONS TO TAKE
US INTO OCTOBER AND OUT OF MONSOON 2014.

THROUGH THURSDAY...LONGWAVE TROUGHING WILL HOLD OVER THE WEST WHILE
THE LOWER TO MID ATMOSPHERE LEVELS GRADUALLY WARM...ABOUT 1 TO 2 C
EACH AFTERNOON FROM 850MB TO THE SFC. BEST PERFORMING GRIDDED AND
CONSENSUS TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE ALL POINT TO HIGHS IN THE LOW 90S
EARLY IN THE WEEK REACHING THE MID TO UPPER 90S BY THE LATE
WEEK...WITH 100F (OR JUST WARMER) READINGS FOR YUMA AND EL CENTRO.

BY FRIDAY...RIDGING OFF THE PACIFIC WILL TRANSITION OVER THE WESTERN
CONUS WITH 1000-500MB THICKNESSES PEAKING IN THE LOW 580DM RANGE AND
850MB TEMPS CLIMBING NEAR 27C FOR THE AFTERNOONS THROUGH THE EARLY
WEEKEND. 100F DEGREE READINGS WILL PERSIST OUT WEST AND POSSIBLY
MAKING A RETURN OVER THE SOUTH-CENTRAL AZ DESERTS. OVER THE LAST
NORMAL PERIOD (1981-2010) THE AVERAGE LAST DAY WE`VE SEEN 100F IN
PHOENIX FALLS ON OCT 3RD...AND OCT 5TH FOR YUMA. WHERE THE AFTERNOONS
MAY SEEM WARM TO SOME...THE MORNINGS WILL BE MILD AND CLOSER TOWARD
NORMAL READINGS. BY THE LATE WEEKEND/EARLY NEXT WEEK...RIDGE HEIGHTS
LOOK TO LOWER AND FLATTEN AS THE ACTIVE STORM PATTERN OVER THE
NORTHERN PACIFIC APPROACHES WESTERN NORTH AMERICA. OUTSIDE OF SOME
SLIGHT COOLING POTENTIAL FOR TEMPERATURES...CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY
REMAIN DRY WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT DIURNALLY DRIVEN WINDS.

&&

.AVIATION...
SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA INCLUDING KPHX...KIWA...AND KSDL...
SKIES HAVE CLEARED FOLLOWING SUNSET AND LACK OF MIXING. WESTERLY FLOW
ALOFT CONTINUES TO ADVECT DRIER AIR ACROSS THE DESERTS...EXPECT GENLY
CLEAR SKIES AT THE TERMINALS THROUGH MONDAY EVENING. THERE MAY BE A
FEW CUMULUS AROUND MONDAY AFTN BUT THEY SHOULD LARGELY BE CONFINED TO
HIGHER TERRAIN AREAS NORTH AND EAST OF PHOENIX. OTHERWISE WINDS TO BE
ON THE LIGHT SIDE FAVORING NORMAL DIURNAL DIRECTIONS NEXT 24 HOURS.
NO AVIATION CONCERNS AT THE TAF SITES THRU MONDAY EVENING.

SOUTHWEST ARIZONA AND SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA INCLUDING KIPL AND KBLH...
CLEAR SKIES WITH SOUTHWEST AND WEST WINDS PREVAILING. IMPERIAL
VALLEY MAY SEE SOME GUSTS OF TO 20 KTS THROUGH 08Z. NO AVIATION
IMPACTS NEXT 24 HOURS AT LEAST.

AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDED TAFS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...
A GRADUAL WARMING TREND WILL CONTINUE...CLIMBING ABOVE NORMAL BY
NEXT WEEKEND. MINIMUM HUMIDITY LEVELS WILL REMAIN RELATIVELY STEADY
THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD...DROPPING INTO THE MIDDLE TEENS EACH
AFTERNOON ON THE LOWER ELEVATIONS. WINDS WILL BE ON THE LIGHT SIDE
WITH OCCASIONAL AFTERNOON BREEZINESS.

&&

.PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

AZ...NONE.

CA...NONE.

&&

$$

VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/PHOENIX

DISCUSSION...NOLTE
AVIATION...CB
FIRE WEATHER...AJ






000
FXUS65 KPSR 290956
AFDPSR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PHOENIX AZ
256 AM MST MON SEP 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
DRY AND STABLE WEST TO NORTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL ESTABLISH ITSELF OVER
THE AREA THIS WEEK...KEEPING SKIES MOSTLY CLEAR AND ZEROING OUT ANY
CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION. TEMPERATURES WILL OPEN THE WEEK BELOW
NORMAL AND GRADUALLY WARM THROUGH THE WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE
ESTABLISHES ITSELF OVER THE WEST.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
LARGE UPPER LEVEL CLOSED LOW REMAINS OVER MUCH OF THE WESTERN CONUS
THIS AM WITH DRYING WEST FLOW SWEEPING ALONG ITS SOUTHERN FRINGE AND
INTO THE FORECAST AREA. CLOSER TO THE SURFACE...DEWPOINT READINGS
RANGE FROM THE UPPER 30S TO LOW 50S OVER THE WESTERN AZ AND SOUTHEAST
CA DESERTS...WITH STILL ELEVATED READINGS PUSHING 60 DEGREES OVER THE
SOUTH CENTRAL DESERTS. MOISTURE REMAINS RATHER SHALLOW AND CLOSE TO
THE SURFACE WITH FURTHER DRYING NOTED ALOFT ON NEIGHBOR AND AIRCRAFT
SOUNDINGS LAST EVENING AND PWATS GENERALLY BELOW 0.75 INCHES. CLOSER
TO THE LOW COLD CORE...STRATIFORM CLOUDS AND LIGHT PRECIP ACTIVITY
LINGER ACROSS PORTIONS OF UT...SOUTHERN NV AND FAR NORTHWESTERN AZ.
NEARLY CLOUDLESS SKIES ARE IN PLACE OVER OUR FORECAST AREA...WITH
ONLY A THIN BAND OF CU ACROSS SOUTHERN GILA COUNTY ALONG A SMALL
AREA OF UPPER LEVEL ASCENT AND JET ENERGY.

CIRCULATION OF THE UPPER LOW HAS BEEN OPENING UP OVER THE LAST 12
HOURS AS A SHORTWAVE DISTURBANCE CURRENTLY DIGS OVER THE SIERRA.
THIS DISTURBANCE WILL ROTATE THROUGH NORTHERN AZ TODAY BEFORE PASSING
THROUGH THE FOUR CORNERS AS THE PARENT LOW CONTINUES TO KICK OUT
INTO THE PLAINS STATES. EVEN WITH ITS NEAR PROXIMITY...DRIER AND
CONTINUED STABLE CONDITIONS WILL HOLD OVER THE AREA KEEPING CHANCES
FOR ANY PRECIP ACTIVITY WELL NORTH AND NORTHEAST OF THE LOWER DESERT
ELEVATIONS. REINFORCING SHOT OF DRY NORTHWESTERLY FLOW IN THE WAKE OF
THE EXITING UPPER LOW AND WEAK LONGWAVE TROUGHING OVER THE WESTERN
CONUS FURTHER SUPPORT POP CHANCES AT ZERO FOR THE REST OF THE WEEK.
EXPECT CLEAR TO MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND DRY SURFACE CONDITIONS TO TAKE
US INTO OCTOBER AND OUT OF MONSOON 2014.

THROUGH THURSDAY...LONGWAVE TROUGHING WILL HOLD OVER THE WEST WHILE
THE LOWER TO MID ATMOSPHERE LEVELS GRADUALLY WARM...ABOUT 1 TO 2 C
EACH AFTERNOON FROM 850MB TO THE SFC. BEST PERFORMING GRIDDED AND
CONSENSUS TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE ALL POINT TO HIGHS IN THE LOW 90S
EARLY IN THE WEEK REACHING THE MID TO UPPER 90S BY THE LATE
WEEK...WITH 100F (OR JUST WARMER) READINGS FOR YUMA AND EL CENTRO.

BY FRIDAY...RIDGING OFF THE PACIFIC WILL TRANSITION OVER THE WESTERN
CONUS WITH 1000-500MB THICKNESSES PEAKING IN THE LOW 580DM RANGE AND
850MB TEMPS CLIMBING NEAR 27C FOR THE AFTERNOONS THROUGH THE EARLY
WEEKEND. 100F DEGREE READINGS WILL PERSIST OUT WEST AND POSSIBLY
MAKING A RETURN OVER THE SOUTH-CENTRAL AZ DESERTS. OVER THE LAST
NORMAL PERIOD (1981-2010) THE AVERAGE LAST DAY WE`VE SEEN 100F IN
PHOENIX FALLS ON OCT 3RD...AND OCT 5TH FOR YUMA. WHERE THE AFTERNOONS
MAY SEEM WARM TO SOME...THE MORNINGS WILL BE MILD AND CLOSER TOWARD
NORMAL READINGS. BY THE LATE WEEKEND/EARLY NEXT WEEK...RIDGE HEIGHTS
LOOK TO LOWER AND FLATTEN AS THE ACTIVE STORM PATTERN OVER THE
NORTHERN PACIFIC APPROACHES WESTERN NORTH AMERICA. OUTSIDE OF SOME
SLIGHT COOLING POTENTIAL FOR TEMPERATURES...CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY
REMAIN DRY WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT DIURNALLY DRIVEN WINDS.

&&

.AVIATION...
SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA INCLUDING KPHX...KIWA...AND KSDL...
SKIES HAVE CLEARED FOLLOWING SUNSET AND LACK OF MIXING. WESTERLY FLOW
ALOFT CONTINUES TO ADVECT DRIER AIR ACROSS THE DESERTS...EXPECT GENLY
CLEAR SKIES AT THE TERMINALS THROUGH MONDAY EVENING. THERE MAY BE A
FEW CUMULUS AROUND MONDAY AFTN BUT THEY SHOULD LARGELY BE CONFINED TO
HIGHER TERRAIN AREAS NORTH AND EAST OF PHOENIX. OTHERWISE WINDS TO BE
ON THE LIGHT SIDE FAVORING NORMAL DIURNAL DIRECTIONS NEXT 24 HOURS.
NO AVIATION CONCERNS AT THE TAF SITES THRU MONDAY EVENING.

SOUTHWEST ARIZONA AND SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA INCLUDING KIPL AND KBLH...
CLEAR SKIES WITH SOUTHWEST AND WEST WINDS PREVAILING. IMPERIAL
VALLEY MAY SEE SOME GUSTS OF TO 20 KTS THROUGH 08Z. NO AVIATION
IMPACTS NEXT 24 HOURS AT LEAST.

AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDED TAFS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...
A GRADUAL WARMING TREND WILL CONTINUE...CLIMBING ABOVE NORMAL BY
NEXT WEEKEND. MINIMUM HUMIDITY LEVELS WILL REMAIN RELATIVELY STEADY
THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD...DROPPING INTO THE MIDDLE TEENS EACH
AFTERNOON ON THE LOWER ELEVATIONS. WINDS WILL BE ON THE LIGHT SIDE
WITH OCCASIONAL AFTERNOON BREEZINESS.

&&

.PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

AZ...NONE.

CA...NONE.

&&

$$

VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/PHOENIX

DISCUSSION...NOLTE
AVIATION...CB
FIRE WEATHER...AJ






000
FXUS65 KTWC 290933
AFDTWC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ
233 AM MST MON SEP 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...DRY CONDITIONS AND NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL
PREVAIL THIS WEEK...WITH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES INTO THE
WEEKEND.

&&

.DISCUSSION...SOME LINGERING LOW CLOUDS ACROSS THE AREA EARLY THIS
MORNING. OTHERWISE...A DRY WESTERLY FLOW WILL BRING MOSTLY CLEAR
SKIES THIS WEEK. TEMPERATURES WILL BE AROUND NORMAL MOST OF THE
WEEK. MODELS SHOWED A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT BUILDING OVER THE
REGION AROUND FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND WHICH WILL RESULT IN SLIGHTLY
ABOVE NORMAL HIGH TEMPERATURES.

&&

.AVIATION...VALID THRU 30/12Z.
FEW-SCT CLOUDS AT 4-8K FT AGL EAST OF A KOLS...TO KTUS...TO KCGZ
LINE THRU 30/03Z. OTHERWISE...SKC CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED. THERE
WILL BE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF -SHRA/-TSRA THRU 30/03Z...NORTHEAST OF
KSAD...MAINLY IN THE WHITE MOUNTAINS. WLY/WLY SURFACE WIND AT 8-18
KTS WITH GUSTS TO NEAR 25 KTS BETWEEN 29/17Z AND 30/02Z...WITH THE
STRONGEST WIND EAST OF KTUS IN THE VICINITY OF KFHU...KDUG AND KSAD.
OTHERWISE...SURFACE WIND GENERALLY LESS THAN 10 KTS. AVIATION
DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR TAF AMENDMENTS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...THERE WILL BE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS IN THE
WHITE MOUNTAINS TODAY...OTHERWISE EXPECT DRY CONDITIONS INTO THE
UPCOMING WEEKEND. DAYTIME MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITIES WILL LOWER
THIS WEEK AS DRIER AIR MOVES INTO THE REGION...ALTHOUGH GOOD
OVERNIGHT RECOVERIES ARE STILL EXPECTED. 20-FOOT WINDS WILL BE
WEST/NORTHWEST AT 8-18 MPH TODAY...WITH THE STRONGEST WINDS EAST OF
TUCSON. 20-FOOT WINDS WILL THEN GENERALLY BE LESS THAN 15 MPH
TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF ELEVATED
EAST/SOUTHEAST WINDS ON FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.

&&

.TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.


&&

$$


VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...YOUTUBE...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/TUCSON






000
FXUS65 KFGZ 290411
AFDFGZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ
911 PM MST SUN SEP 28 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL LINGER THIS EVENING
ACROSS NORTHERN ARIZONA. THE HIGHEST CHANCES FOR SHOWERS THIS
EVENING WILL BE FROM THE GRAND CANYON NORTH TO THE UTAH BORDER. COOL
DRY AIR WILL MOVE IN FROM THE WEST ON MONDAY. EXPECT COOLER NIGHTS
WITH NO PRECIPITATION THROUGH THE UPCOMING WORK WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...THE LARGE UPPER LEVEL CUT-OFF LOW CONTINUES TO SPIN
OVER THE CALIFORNIA/NEVADA BORDER THIS EVENING. ONE MORE
DISTURBANCE WILL ROTATE THROUGH THE BASE OF THE TROUGH TONIGHT AS
IT BOTTOMS OUT OVER NORTHWEST ARIZONA AND THEN HEADS NORTHEAST
DURING THE DAY MONDAY. THIS LAST DISTURBANCE WILL BRING A BAND OF
CLOUDS ACROSS NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE STATE TONIGHT...MAINLY
NORTH OF FLAGSTAFF. IN ADDITION...ENOUGH MID LEVEL MOISTURE MAY
BRING AN ISOLATED SHOWER TO AREAS FROM THE GRAND CANYON NORTH TO
THE UTAH BORDER. MINOR ADJUSTMENTS WERE MADE TO ACCOUNT FOR CLOUD
COVER AND SHOWER CHANCES THIS EVENING.

&&

.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION (330 PM MST)...THIS FRONTAL SYSTEM PASSAGE
LIKELY MARKS THE END TO OUR SUMMER MONSOON PRECIPITATION SEASON
AND THE BEGINNING OF OUR DRIER FALL WEATHER PATTERN. EXPECT COLDER
OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES AS THE MOISTURE BLANKET HAS BEEN REMOVED
ALLOWING THE ATMOSPHERE TO MORE EFFICIENTLY RADIATE HEAT INTO
SPACE EACH NIGHT. HIGH COUNTRY MINIMUM TEMPERATURES WILL APPROACH
FREEZING IN SOME LOCATIONS ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY MORNING.

MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...WESTERLY WINDS ALOFT BRING DRIER AIR TO
NORTHERN ARIZONA THROUGH THE WEEK. WIND SPEEDS ON MONDAY WILL BE
BREEZY AS THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES ACROSS UTAH AND
COLORADO...BECOMING LIGHT FOR THE REST OF THE WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE
TAKES HOLD.

&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 06Z PACKAGE...
BKN CLOUD DECKS AT 6-10 KFT AGL WILL AFFECT FAR NORTHERN AZ OVERNIGHT
WITH AN ISOLATED -SHRA POSSIBLE...MAINLY FROM KGCN-KRQE NORTHWARD.
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED ON MONDAY WITH WESTERLY WINDS 10-20 KTS.
AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDMENTS.

&&

.FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC.........MCS/BOHLIN
AVIATION.......MCS

FOR NORTHERN ARIZONA WEATHER INFORMATION VISIT
WEATHER.GOV/FLAGSTAFF





000
FXUS65 KFGZ 290411
AFDFGZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ
911 PM MST SUN SEP 28 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL LINGER THIS EVENING
ACROSS NORTHERN ARIZONA. THE HIGHEST CHANCES FOR SHOWERS THIS
EVENING WILL BE FROM THE GRAND CANYON NORTH TO THE UTAH BORDER. COOL
DRY AIR WILL MOVE IN FROM THE WEST ON MONDAY. EXPECT COOLER NIGHTS
WITH NO PRECIPITATION THROUGH THE UPCOMING WORK WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...THE LARGE UPPER LEVEL CUT-OFF LOW CONTINUES TO SPIN
OVER THE CALIFORNIA/NEVADA BORDER THIS EVENING. ONE MORE
DISTURBANCE WILL ROTATE THROUGH THE BASE OF THE TROUGH TONIGHT AS
IT BOTTOMS OUT OVER NORTHWEST ARIZONA AND THEN HEADS NORTHEAST
DURING THE DAY MONDAY. THIS LAST DISTURBANCE WILL BRING A BAND OF
CLOUDS ACROSS NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE STATE TONIGHT...MAINLY
NORTH OF FLAGSTAFF. IN ADDITION...ENOUGH MID LEVEL MOISTURE MAY
BRING AN ISOLATED SHOWER TO AREAS FROM THE GRAND CANYON NORTH TO
THE UTAH BORDER. MINOR ADJUSTMENTS WERE MADE TO ACCOUNT FOR CLOUD
COVER AND SHOWER CHANCES THIS EVENING.

&&

.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION (330 PM MST)...THIS FRONTAL SYSTEM PASSAGE
LIKELY MARKS THE END TO OUR SUMMER MONSOON PRECIPITATION SEASON
AND THE BEGINNING OF OUR DRIER FALL WEATHER PATTERN. EXPECT COLDER
OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES AS THE MOISTURE BLANKET HAS BEEN REMOVED
ALLOWING THE ATMOSPHERE TO MORE EFFICIENTLY RADIATE HEAT INTO
SPACE EACH NIGHT. HIGH COUNTRY MINIMUM TEMPERATURES WILL APPROACH
FREEZING IN SOME LOCATIONS ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY MORNING.

MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...WESTERLY WINDS ALOFT BRING DRIER AIR TO
NORTHERN ARIZONA THROUGH THE WEEK. WIND SPEEDS ON MONDAY WILL BE
BREEZY AS THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES ACROSS UTAH AND
COLORADO...BECOMING LIGHT FOR THE REST OF THE WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE
TAKES HOLD.

&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 06Z PACKAGE...
BKN CLOUD DECKS AT 6-10 KFT AGL WILL AFFECT FAR NORTHERN AZ OVERNIGHT
WITH AN ISOLATED -SHRA POSSIBLE...MAINLY FROM KGCN-KRQE NORTHWARD.
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED ON MONDAY WITH WESTERLY WINDS 10-20 KTS.
AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDMENTS.

&&

.FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC.........MCS/BOHLIN
AVIATION.......MCS

FOR NORTHERN ARIZONA WEATHER INFORMATION VISIT
WEATHER.GOV/FLAGSTAFF






000
FXUS65 KPSR 290315
AFDPSR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PHOENIX AZ
815 PM MST SUN SEP 28 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A MUCH DRIER AND MORE STABLE AIRMASS WILL CONTINUE TO OVERSPREAD THE
AREA THIS EVENING...THUS LIMITING SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES TO
NORTHERN AND FAR EASTERN ARIZONA. THIS DRIER WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT
WILL BECOME ESTABLISHED OVER THE REGION ALL WEEK...PRODUCING MOSTLY
CLEAR SKIES AND A GRADUAL WARMING TREND.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
UPPER LEVEL CLOSED LOW CONTINUES TO SPIN OVER THE DESERT SOUTHWEST
CENTERED OVER SCNTRL NEVADA PER THE LATEST 00Z PLOT DATA.
WEST/SOUTHWEST FLOW ON THE SOUTH SIDE OF THE LOW CONTINUED TO ADVECT
DRIER AND MORE STABLE AIR ACROSS THE SRN DESERTS...THE TUCSON
SOUNDING REPORTED A PWAT VALUE OF JUST 0.83 INCHES THIS EVENING
COMPARED TO 1.2 INCHES JUST 12 HOURS AGO. SURFACE DEWPOINTS OVER THE
LOWER CENTRAL DESERTS RANGED MOSTLY FROM THE MID 40S TO MID 50S AT 8
PM...DOWN 15-25 DEGREES FROM 24 HOURS AGO. IR SATELLITE IMAGERY THIS
EVENING SHOWED CLEAR SKIES ACROSS THE DESERTS OF SERN CA AND
SOUTHWEST/SOUTHCENTRAL AZ. FOR THE REST OF TONIGHT EXPECT GENERALLY
CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS...AND RATHER MILD OVERNIGHT TEMPS. NO
UPDATES NEEDED TO THE FORECASTS.

.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
VISIBLE SATELLITE AND REGIONAL RADAR REVEALS SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS
OVER NORTHERN ARIZONA CLOSE TO THE UTAH BORDER...AND VERY LITTLE
ACTIVITY OTHER THAN A FEW BUILDING CUMULUS FIELDS ACROSS EASTERN
ARIZONA THIS AFTERNOON. DRIER AIR CONTINUES TO FILTER INTO THE
REGION...REFLECTED AT THE SURFACE IN THE DEW POINT TEMPERATURES
ACROSS SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA AND SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA THAT HAVE
DROPPED INTO THE 40S AND 50S...A GOOD 15-20 DEGREE CHANGE FROM THIS
TIME YESTERDAY. THE LOW WILL BEGIN TO MOVE OFF TO THE NORTHEAST OVER
THE NEXT 24 HOURS...WITH DRIER AIR CONTINUING TO GAIN A HOLD ACROSS
THE REGION IN ITS EXODUS. AS SUCH...OUR FORECAST FOR THE NEXT WEEK
WILL BE BASED OFF THIS DRIER PATTERN...WITH NO PRECIPITATION CHANCES
IN STORE. MONSOON 2014 IS NOW A THING OF THE PAST...WITH PREVAILING
WESTERLY FLOW SETTING UP FOR THE FALL AND WINTER SEASONS.

MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...A BROAD TROUGH OVER THE CENTRAL AND
WESTERN CONUS WILL MAINTAIN A DRY WEST-NORTHWESTERLY FLOW OVER THE
DESERT SOUTHWEST. THE ATMOSPHERE WILL GRADUALLY WARM...AND WITH
MOSTLY CLEAR SUNNY SKIES...DAYTIME TEMPERATURES WILL TOP OUT IN
THE MID TO UPPER 90S EACH DAY.

FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...BOTH THE ECMWF AND THE GFS HINT THAT THE
EASTERN PACIFIC RIDGE COULD SHIFT EAST AND HEIGHTS INCREASE ALONG
THE WEST COAST...500MB HEIGHTS APPROACHING 591-593DM OVER ARIZONA.
IF THIS PANS OUT...AFTERNOON TEMPS WILL ONCE AGAIN MAX OUT OVER THE
100 DEGREE MARK...AND BE 8-10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL...GIVING US ONE
MORE LAST GASP AT SUMMER HEAT. WILL HAVE TO WAIT TO SEE IF THIS
STRONG WARM HAS A BETTER CONSENSUS IN FUTURE MODEL RUNS.

&&

.AVIATION...
SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA INCLUDING KPHX...KIWA...AND KSDL...
SKIES HAVE CLEARED FOLLOWING SUNSET AND LACK OF MIXING. WESTERLY
FLOW ALOFT CONTINUES TO ADVECT DRIER AIR ACROSS THE DESERTS...EXPECT
GENLY CLEAR SKIES AT THE TERMINALS THROUGH MONDAY EVENING. THERE MAY
BE A FEW CUMULUS AROUND MONDAY AFTN BUT THEY SHOULD LARGELY BE
CONFINED TO HIGHER TERRAIN AREAS NORTH AND EAST OF PHOENIX.
OTHERWISE WINDS TO BE ON THE LIGHT SIDE FAVORING NORMAL DIURNAL
DIRECTIONS NEXT 24 HOURS. NO AVIATION CONCERNS AT THE TAF SITES THRU
MONDAY EVENING.

SOUTHWEST ARIZONA AND SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA INCLUDING KIPL AND KBLH...
CLEAR SKIES WITH SOUTHWEST AND WEST WINDS PREVAILING. IMPERIAL
VALLEY MAY SEE SOME GUSTS OF TO 20 KTS THROUGH 08Z. NO AVIATION
IMPACTS NEXT 24 HOURS AT LEAST.

AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDED TAFS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...
A GRADUAL WARMING TREND WILL CONTINUE...CLIMBING ABOVE NORMAL BY
NEXT WEEKEND. MINIMUM HUMIDITY LEVELS WILL REMAIN RELATIVELY STEADY
THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD...DROPPING INTO THE MIDDLE TEENS EACH
AFTERNOON ON THE LOWER ELEVATIONS. WINDS WILL BE ON THE LIGHT SIDE
WITH OCCASIONAL AFTERNOON BREEZINESS.

&&

.PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

AZ...NONE.

CA...NONE.

&&

$$

VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/PHOENIX

DISCUSSION...CB
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...MEYERS
AVIATION...CB
FIRE WEATHER...AJ









000
FXUS65 KPSR 290315
AFDPSR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PHOENIX AZ
815 PM MST SUN SEP 28 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A MUCH DRIER AND MORE STABLE AIRMASS WILL CONTINUE TO OVERSPREAD THE
AREA THIS EVENING...THUS LIMITING SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES TO
NORTHERN AND FAR EASTERN ARIZONA. THIS DRIER WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT
WILL BECOME ESTABLISHED OVER THE REGION ALL WEEK...PRODUCING MOSTLY
CLEAR SKIES AND A GRADUAL WARMING TREND.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
UPPER LEVEL CLOSED LOW CONTINUES TO SPIN OVER THE DESERT SOUTHWEST
CENTERED OVER SCNTRL NEVADA PER THE LATEST 00Z PLOT DATA.
WEST/SOUTHWEST FLOW ON THE SOUTH SIDE OF THE LOW CONTINUED TO ADVECT
DRIER AND MORE STABLE AIR ACROSS THE SRN DESERTS...THE TUCSON
SOUNDING REPORTED A PWAT VALUE OF JUST 0.83 INCHES THIS EVENING
COMPARED TO 1.2 INCHES JUST 12 HOURS AGO. SURFACE DEWPOINTS OVER THE
LOWER CENTRAL DESERTS RANGED MOSTLY FROM THE MID 40S TO MID 50S AT 8
PM...DOWN 15-25 DEGREES FROM 24 HOURS AGO. IR SATELLITE IMAGERY THIS
EVENING SHOWED CLEAR SKIES ACROSS THE DESERTS OF SERN CA AND
SOUTHWEST/SOUTHCENTRAL AZ. FOR THE REST OF TONIGHT EXPECT GENERALLY
CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS...AND RATHER MILD OVERNIGHT TEMPS. NO
UPDATES NEEDED TO THE FORECASTS.

.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
VISIBLE SATELLITE AND REGIONAL RADAR REVEALS SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS
OVER NORTHERN ARIZONA CLOSE TO THE UTAH BORDER...AND VERY LITTLE
ACTIVITY OTHER THAN A FEW BUILDING CUMULUS FIELDS ACROSS EASTERN
ARIZONA THIS AFTERNOON. DRIER AIR CONTINUES TO FILTER INTO THE
REGION...REFLECTED AT THE SURFACE IN THE DEW POINT TEMPERATURES
ACROSS SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA AND SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA THAT HAVE
DROPPED INTO THE 40S AND 50S...A GOOD 15-20 DEGREE CHANGE FROM THIS
TIME YESTERDAY. THE LOW WILL BEGIN TO MOVE OFF TO THE NORTHEAST OVER
THE NEXT 24 HOURS...WITH DRIER AIR CONTINUING TO GAIN A HOLD ACROSS
THE REGION IN ITS EXODUS. AS SUCH...OUR FORECAST FOR THE NEXT WEEK
WILL BE BASED OFF THIS DRIER PATTERN...WITH NO PRECIPITATION CHANCES
IN STORE. MONSOON 2014 IS NOW A THING OF THE PAST...WITH PREVAILING
WESTERLY FLOW SETTING UP FOR THE FALL AND WINTER SEASONS.

MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...A BROAD TROUGH OVER THE CENTRAL AND
WESTERN CONUS WILL MAINTAIN A DRY WEST-NORTHWESTERLY FLOW OVER THE
DESERT SOUTHWEST. THE ATMOSPHERE WILL GRADUALLY WARM...AND WITH
MOSTLY CLEAR SUNNY SKIES...DAYTIME TEMPERATURES WILL TOP OUT IN
THE MID TO UPPER 90S EACH DAY.

FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...BOTH THE ECMWF AND THE GFS HINT THAT THE
EASTERN PACIFIC RIDGE COULD SHIFT EAST AND HEIGHTS INCREASE ALONG
THE WEST COAST...500MB HEIGHTS APPROACHING 591-593DM OVER ARIZONA.
IF THIS PANS OUT...AFTERNOON TEMPS WILL ONCE AGAIN MAX OUT OVER THE
100 DEGREE MARK...AND BE 8-10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL...GIVING US ONE
MORE LAST GASP AT SUMMER HEAT. WILL HAVE TO WAIT TO SEE IF THIS
STRONG WARM HAS A BETTER CONSENSUS IN FUTURE MODEL RUNS.

&&

.AVIATION...
SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA INCLUDING KPHX...KIWA...AND KSDL...
SKIES HAVE CLEARED FOLLOWING SUNSET AND LACK OF MIXING. WESTERLY
FLOW ALOFT CONTINUES TO ADVECT DRIER AIR ACROSS THE DESERTS...EXPECT
GENLY CLEAR SKIES AT THE TERMINALS THROUGH MONDAY EVENING. THERE MAY
BE A FEW CUMULUS AROUND MONDAY AFTN BUT THEY SHOULD LARGELY BE
CONFINED TO HIGHER TERRAIN AREAS NORTH AND EAST OF PHOENIX.
OTHERWISE WINDS TO BE ON THE LIGHT SIDE FAVORING NORMAL DIURNAL
DIRECTIONS NEXT 24 HOURS. NO AVIATION CONCERNS AT THE TAF SITES THRU
MONDAY EVENING.

SOUTHWEST ARIZONA AND SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA INCLUDING KIPL AND KBLH...
CLEAR SKIES WITH SOUTHWEST AND WEST WINDS PREVAILING. IMPERIAL
VALLEY MAY SEE SOME GUSTS OF TO 20 KTS THROUGH 08Z. NO AVIATION
IMPACTS NEXT 24 HOURS AT LEAST.

AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDED TAFS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...
A GRADUAL WARMING TREND WILL CONTINUE...CLIMBING ABOVE NORMAL BY
NEXT WEEKEND. MINIMUM HUMIDITY LEVELS WILL REMAIN RELATIVELY STEADY
THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD...DROPPING INTO THE MIDDLE TEENS EACH
AFTERNOON ON THE LOWER ELEVATIONS. WINDS WILL BE ON THE LIGHT SIDE
WITH OCCASIONAL AFTERNOON BREEZINESS.

&&

.PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

AZ...NONE.

CA...NONE.

&&

$$

VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/PHOENIX

DISCUSSION...CB
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...MEYERS
AVIATION...CB
FIRE WEATHER...AJ









000
FXUS65 KPSR 290315
AFDPSR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PHOENIX AZ
815 PM MST SUN SEP 28 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A MUCH DRIER AND MORE STABLE AIRMASS WILL CONTINUE TO OVERSPREAD THE
AREA THIS EVENING...THUS LIMITING SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES TO
NORTHERN AND FAR EASTERN ARIZONA. THIS DRIER WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT
WILL BECOME ESTABLISHED OVER THE REGION ALL WEEK...PRODUCING MOSTLY
CLEAR SKIES AND A GRADUAL WARMING TREND.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
UPPER LEVEL CLOSED LOW CONTINUES TO SPIN OVER THE DESERT SOUTHWEST
CENTERED OVER SCNTRL NEVADA PER THE LATEST 00Z PLOT DATA.
WEST/SOUTHWEST FLOW ON THE SOUTH SIDE OF THE LOW CONTINUED TO ADVECT
DRIER AND MORE STABLE AIR ACROSS THE SRN DESERTS...THE TUCSON
SOUNDING REPORTED A PWAT VALUE OF JUST 0.83 INCHES THIS EVENING
COMPARED TO 1.2 INCHES JUST 12 HOURS AGO. SURFACE DEWPOINTS OVER THE
LOWER CENTRAL DESERTS RANGED MOSTLY FROM THE MID 40S TO MID 50S AT 8
PM...DOWN 15-25 DEGREES FROM 24 HOURS AGO. IR SATELLITE IMAGERY THIS
EVENING SHOWED CLEAR SKIES ACROSS THE DESERTS OF SERN CA AND
SOUTHWEST/SOUTHCENTRAL AZ. FOR THE REST OF TONIGHT EXPECT GENERALLY
CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS...AND RATHER MILD OVERNIGHT TEMPS. NO
UPDATES NEEDED TO THE FORECASTS.

.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
VISIBLE SATELLITE AND REGIONAL RADAR REVEALS SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS
OVER NORTHERN ARIZONA CLOSE TO THE UTAH BORDER...AND VERY LITTLE
ACTIVITY OTHER THAN A FEW BUILDING CUMULUS FIELDS ACROSS EASTERN
ARIZONA THIS AFTERNOON. DRIER AIR CONTINUES TO FILTER INTO THE
REGION...REFLECTED AT THE SURFACE IN THE DEW POINT TEMPERATURES
ACROSS SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA AND SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA THAT HAVE
DROPPED INTO THE 40S AND 50S...A GOOD 15-20 DEGREE CHANGE FROM THIS
TIME YESTERDAY. THE LOW WILL BEGIN TO MOVE OFF TO THE NORTHEAST OVER
THE NEXT 24 HOURS...WITH DRIER AIR CONTINUING TO GAIN A HOLD ACROSS
THE REGION IN ITS EXODUS. AS SUCH...OUR FORECAST FOR THE NEXT WEEK
WILL BE BASED OFF THIS DRIER PATTERN...WITH NO PRECIPITATION CHANCES
IN STORE. MONSOON 2014 IS NOW A THING OF THE PAST...WITH PREVAILING
WESTERLY FLOW SETTING UP FOR THE FALL AND WINTER SEASONS.

MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...A BROAD TROUGH OVER THE CENTRAL AND
WESTERN CONUS WILL MAINTAIN A DRY WEST-NORTHWESTERLY FLOW OVER THE
DESERT SOUTHWEST. THE ATMOSPHERE WILL GRADUALLY WARM...AND WITH
MOSTLY CLEAR SUNNY SKIES...DAYTIME TEMPERATURES WILL TOP OUT IN
THE MID TO UPPER 90S EACH DAY.

FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...BOTH THE ECMWF AND THE GFS HINT THAT THE
EASTERN PACIFIC RIDGE COULD SHIFT EAST AND HEIGHTS INCREASE ALONG
THE WEST COAST...500MB HEIGHTS APPROACHING 591-593DM OVER ARIZONA.
IF THIS PANS OUT...AFTERNOON TEMPS WILL ONCE AGAIN MAX OUT OVER THE
100 DEGREE MARK...AND BE 8-10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL...GIVING US ONE
MORE LAST GASP AT SUMMER HEAT. WILL HAVE TO WAIT TO SEE IF THIS
STRONG WARM HAS A BETTER CONSENSUS IN FUTURE MODEL RUNS.

&&

.AVIATION...
SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA INCLUDING KPHX...KIWA...AND KSDL...
SKIES HAVE CLEARED FOLLOWING SUNSET AND LACK OF MIXING. WESTERLY
FLOW ALOFT CONTINUES TO ADVECT DRIER AIR ACROSS THE DESERTS...EXPECT
GENLY CLEAR SKIES AT THE TERMINALS THROUGH MONDAY EVENING. THERE MAY
BE A FEW CUMULUS AROUND MONDAY AFTN BUT THEY SHOULD LARGELY BE
CONFINED TO HIGHER TERRAIN AREAS NORTH AND EAST OF PHOENIX.
OTHERWISE WINDS TO BE ON THE LIGHT SIDE FAVORING NORMAL DIURNAL
DIRECTIONS NEXT 24 HOURS. NO AVIATION CONCERNS AT THE TAF SITES THRU
MONDAY EVENING.

SOUTHWEST ARIZONA AND SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA INCLUDING KIPL AND KBLH...
CLEAR SKIES WITH SOUTHWEST AND WEST WINDS PREVAILING. IMPERIAL
VALLEY MAY SEE SOME GUSTS OF TO 20 KTS THROUGH 08Z. NO AVIATION
IMPACTS NEXT 24 HOURS AT LEAST.

AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDED TAFS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...
A GRADUAL WARMING TREND WILL CONTINUE...CLIMBING ABOVE NORMAL BY
NEXT WEEKEND. MINIMUM HUMIDITY LEVELS WILL REMAIN RELATIVELY STEADY
THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD...DROPPING INTO THE MIDDLE TEENS EACH
AFTERNOON ON THE LOWER ELEVATIONS. WINDS WILL BE ON THE LIGHT SIDE
WITH OCCASIONAL AFTERNOON BREEZINESS.

&&

.PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

AZ...NONE.

CA...NONE.

&&

$$

VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/PHOENIX

DISCUSSION...CB
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...MEYERS
AVIATION...CB
FIRE WEATHER...AJ









000
FXUS65 KPSR 290315
AFDPSR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PHOENIX AZ
815 PM MST SUN SEP 28 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A MUCH DRIER AND MORE STABLE AIRMASS WILL CONTINUE TO OVERSPREAD THE
AREA THIS EVENING...THUS LIMITING SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES TO
NORTHERN AND FAR EASTERN ARIZONA. THIS DRIER WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT
WILL BECOME ESTABLISHED OVER THE REGION ALL WEEK...PRODUCING MOSTLY
CLEAR SKIES AND A GRADUAL WARMING TREND.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
UPPER LEVEL CLOSED LOW CONTINUES TO SPIN OVER THE DESERT SOUTHWEST
CENTERED OVER SCNTRL NEVADA PER THE LATEST 00Z PLOT DATA.
WEST/SOUTHWEST FLOW ON THE SOUTH SIDE OF THE LOW CONTINUED TO ADVECT
DRIER AND MORE STABLE AIR ACROSS THE SRN DESERTS...THE TUCSON
SOUNDING REPORTED A PWAT VALUE OF JUST 0.83 INCHES THIS EVENING
COMPARED TO 1.2 INCHES JUST 12 HOURS AGO. SURFACE DEWPOINTS OVER THE
LOWER CENTRAL DESERTS RANGED MOSTLY FROM THE MID 40S TO MID 50S AT 8
PM...DOWN 15-25 DEGREES FROM 24 HOURS AGO. IR SATELLITE IMAGERY THIS
EVENING SHOWED CLEAR SKIES ACROSS THE DESERTS OF SERN CA AND
SOUTHWEST/SOUTHCENTRAL AZ. FOR THE REST OF TONIGHT EXPECT GENERALLY
CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS...AND RATHER MILD OVERNIGHT TEMPS. NO
UPDATES NEEDED TO THE FORECASTS.

.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
VISIBLE SATELLITE AND REGIONAL RADAR REVEALS SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS
OVER NORTHERN ARIZONA CLOSE TO THE UTAH BORDER...AND VERY LITTLE
ACTIVITY OTHER THAN A FEW BUILDING CUMULUS FIELDS ACROSS EASTERN
ARIZONA THIS AFTERNOON. DRIER AIR CONTINUES TO FILTER INTO THE
REGION...REFLECTED AT THE SURFACE IN THE DEW POINT TEMPERATURES
ACROSS SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA AND SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA THAT HAVE
DROPPED INTO THE 40S AND 50S...A GOOD 15-20 DEGREE CHANGE FROM THIS
TIME YESTERDAY. THE LOW WILL BEGIN TO MOVE OFF TO THE NORTHEAST OVER
THE NEXT 24 HOURS...WITH DRIER AIR CONTINUING TO GAIN A HOLD ACROSS
THE REGION IN ITS EXODUS. AS SUCH...OUR FORECAST FOR THE NEXT WEEK
WILL BE BASED OFF THIS DRIER PATTERN...WITH NO PRECIPITATION CHANCES
IN STORE. MONSOON 2014 IS NOW A THING OF THE PAST...WITH PREVAILING
WESTERLY FLOW SETTING UP FOR THE FALL AND WINTER SEASONS.

MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...A BROAD TROUGH OVER THE CENTRAL AND
WESTERN CONUS WILL MAINTAIN A DRY WEST-NORTHWESTERLY FLOW OVER THE
DESERT SOUTHWEST. THE ATMOSPHERE WILL GRADUALLY WARM...AND WITH
MOSTLY CLEAR SUNNY SKIES...DAYTIME TEMPERATURES WILL TOP OUT IN
THE MID TO UPPER 90S EACH DAY.

FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...BOTH THE ECMWF AND THE GFS HINT THAT THE
EASTERN PACIFIC RIDGE COULD SHIFT EAST AND HEIGHTS INCREASE ALONG
THE WEST COAST...500MB HEIGHTS APPROACHING 591-593DM OVER ARIZONA.
IF THIS PANS OUT...AFTERNOON TEMPS WILL ONCE AGAIN MAX OUT OVER THE
100 DEGREE MARK...AND BE 8-10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL...GIVING US ONE
MORE LAST GASP AT SUMMER HEAT. WILL HAVE TO WAIT TO SEE IF THIS
STRONG WARM HAS A BETTER CONSENSUS IN FUTURE MODEL RUNS.

&&

.AVIATION...
SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA INCLUDING KPHX...KIWA...AND KSDL...
SKIES HAVE CLEARED FOLLOWING SUNSET AND LACK OF MIXING. WESTERLY
FLOW ALOFT CONTINUES TO ADVECT DRIER AIR ACROSS THE DESERTS...EXPECT
GENLY CLEAR SKIES AT THE TERMINALS THROUGH MONDAY EVENING. THERE MAY
BE A FEW CUMULUS AROUND MONDAY AFTN BUT THEY SHOULD LARGELY BE
CONFINED TO HIGHER TERRAIN AREAS NORTH AND EAST OF PHOENIX.
OTHERWISE WINDS TO BE ON THE LIGHT SIDE FAVORING NORMAL DIURNAL
DIRECTIONS NEXT 24 HOURS. NO AVIATION CONCERNS AT THE TAF SITES THRU
MONDAY EVENING.

SOUTHWEST ARIZONA AND SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA INCLUDING KIPL AND KBLH...
CLEAR SKIES WITH SOUTHWEST AND WEST WINDS PREVAILING. IMPERIAL
VALLEY MAY SEE SOME GUSTS OF TO 20 KTS THROUGH 08Z. NO AVIATION
IMPACTS NEXT 24 HOURS AT LEAST.

AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDED TAFS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...
A GRADUAL WARMING TREND WILL CONTINUE...CLIMBING ABOVE NORMAL BY
NEXT WEEKEND. MINIMUM HUMIDITY LEVELS WILL REMAIN RELATIVELY STEADY
THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD...DROPPING INTO THE MIDDLE TEENS EACH
AFTERNOON ON THE LOWER ELEVATIONS. WINDS WILL BE ON THE LIGHT SIDE
WITH OCCASIONAL AFTERNOON BREEZINESS.

&&

.PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

AZ...NONE.

CA...NONE.

&&

$$

VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/PHOENIX

DISCUSSION...CB
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...MEYERS
AVIATION...CB
FIRE WEATHER...AJ









000
FXUS65 KTWC 290221
AFDTWC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ
721 PM MST SUN SEP 28 2014

.SYNOPSIS...DRY CONDITIONS AND NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL
PREVAIL THIS WEEK...WITH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES INTO THE
WEEKEND.

&&

.DISCUSSION...CU FIELD CONTINUES TO DISSIPATE OVER THE LAST COUPLE
OF HOURS WHICH SUPPORT REMOVING POPS. HAD DONE THIS EARLIER THOUGH
HAVE TRENDED THEM DOWN AGAIN GIVEN CURRENT CONDITIONS. ALSO MADE A
FEW TWEAKS TO THE SHORT TERM FORECAST TO BETTER FIT CURRENT
TRENDS.

&&

.AVIATION...VALID THRU 30/06Z.
CU FIELD ACROSS THE AREA WILL CONTINUE TO DISSIPATE THIS EVENING
RESULTING IN SKC CONDITIONS UNTIL TOMORROW AFTERNOON WHEN WEAK CU
FIELD WILL AGAIN DEVELOP EAST OF KTUS. WESTERLY SFC WINDS WILL PREVAIL
THRU THE PERIOD AND SHOULD GENERALLY REMAIN BELOW 10 KTS...THOUGH
BRIEF GUST TO NEAR 18 KTS POSSIBLE LATE IN THE AFTERNOON GIVEN
POINT SOUNDINGS SHOWING INVERTED-V PROFILES. AVIATION DISCUSSION
NOT UPDATED FOR TAF AMENDMENTS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...EXPECT DRY CONDITIONS INTO NEXT WEEKEND...MINUS A
SLIGHT CHANCE IN THE WHITE MOUNTAINS THRU THE MONDAY EVENING. DAYTIME
MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITIES BY TUESDAY AND CONTINUING INTO NEXT
WEEKEND WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE MID TEENS TO LOWER 20S AT LOWER
ELEVATIONS WITH GOOD OVERNIGHT RECOVERIES. 20-FOOT WINDS WILL BE
WEST AT 10 TO 15 MPH MONDAY...THEN 20-FOOT WINDS WILL BE LESS
THAN 10 MPH TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY. SOME BREEZY EAST WINDS MAY
DEVELOP FRIDAY.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 200 PM MST SUN SEP 28 2014/

DISCUSSION...WATER VAPOR IMAGERY CONTINUES TO SHOW THE UPPER LOW
SPINNING OVER NEVADA WITH PLENTY OF MID TO UPPER LEVEL DRY AIR
OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC...NORTHERN MEXICO AND SOUTHERN PARTS OF
ARIZONA AND NEW MEXICO.

VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A NICE CUMULUS FIELD THAT HAS
DEVELOPED MAINLY FROM TUCSON EASTWARD TO THE NEW MEXICO BORDER AND
BEYOND...AS WELL AS SOUTH OF TUCSON INTO NORTHERN SONORA.

RADAR MOSAIC INDICATES THAT ISOLATED SHOWERS MAINLY NORTHEAST OF
TUCSON TOWARD THE WHITE MOUNTAINS HAVE BEEN SLOWLY DISSIPATING.
HOWEVER...STILL A POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS TO
DEVELOP MOSTLY OVER THE WHITE MOUNTAINS THROUGH THIS EVENING...AS
WELL AS MOUNTAIN TOPS BETWEEN TUCSON AND THE NEW MEXICO BORDER.

ISOLATED SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY ALONG THE NEW MEXICO BORDER
WILL TAPER OFF THROUGH LATE MONDAY AS THE UPPER LOW IS PROGGED TO
LIFT NORTHEAST INTO COLORADO BY LATE MONDAY. THEREAFTER...NEARLY
ZONAL FLOW WILL PERSIST THROUGH LATE WEDNESDAY AS THE TAIL END OF A
TROUGH BRUSHES BY NORTHERN ARIZONA ON WEDNESDAY. LATE IN THE WEEK
AND INTO THE WEEKEND...HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL INCREASE SEVERAL
DEGREES AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE DESERT SOUTHWEST DURING
THAT TIME. DRY WEATHER TUESDAY THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND EXPECTED.

HIGH TEMPERATURES AROUND 3 TO 5 DEGS BELOW NORMAL MONDAY...THEN NEAR
NORMAL TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY. THEREAFTER...HIGHS 4 TO 6 DEGS
ABOVE NORMAL. LOWS NEAR NORMAL MONDAY MORNING...THEN 2 TO 3 DEGS
BELOW NORMAL FOR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY MORNINGS. NEAR NORMAL FOR
THURSDAY AND 2 TO 4 DEGS ABOVE NORMAL FOR FRIDAY THROUGH THE
WEEKEND.

&&

.TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...MEADOWS

VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...YOUTUBE...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/TUCSON






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