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000
FXUS65 KTWC 011656
AFDTWC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ
955 AM MST SAT AUG 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...AMPLE MOISTURE WILL BRING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TO MUCH OF THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. A
DRYING TREND SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY WILL CONFINE THUNDERSTORMS
MAINLY TO AREAS SOUTH AND EAST OF TUCSON. INCREASING COVERAGE OF
THUNDERSTORMS WILL THEN OCCUR DURING THE LATTER PART OF THE UPCOMING
WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...UPPER RIDGE AXIS EXTENDED FROM THE GREAT BASIN SEWD
ACROSS THE FOUR CORNERS REGION AND CONTINUED SE INTO WEST TEXAS THIS
MORNING. MEANWHILE...WEAK UPPER LOW WAS CENTERED WELL WEST OF THE
CENTRAL CALIFORNIA COAST NEAR 35N/134W...AND A WEAK UPPER LOW WAS
JUST NORTH OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA SPUR AS PER WATER VAPOR IMAGERY.
01/12Z KTWC SOUNDING TOTAL PRECIP WATER VALUE WAS 1.50 INCHES...AND
MUCAPE YIELDED 934 J/KG. SOUTHERLY 10-15 KT SPEEDS WERE OBSERVED IN
THE 700-300 MB LAYER.

VARIOUS NWP MESOSCALE MODELS DEPICT THE BEST COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOULD OCCUR ACROSS
GREENLEE/GRAHAM/COCHISE COUNTIES EAST OF TUCSON...WITH GRADUALLY
LESSER COVERAGE OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS FROM TUCSON WESTWARD INTO
WRN PIMA COUNTY. IN FACT...SEVERAL SOLUTIONS SUGGEST THAT WRN PIMA
COUNTY OR AZZ501 WILL REMAIN PRECIP-FREE THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING.

AT ANY RATE...THE INHERITED OFFICIAL FORECAST GENERAL DEPICTION OF
CHANCE-CATEGORY POPS ACROSS MUCH OF SE ARIZONA APPEARS REASONABLE
BASED ON THESE LATEST SOLUTIONS. STORM MOTIONS SHOULD FAVOR NLY/
NELY MOVEMENTS INTO THIS EVENING. FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS STILL TOO
LOW TO MERIT THE INTRODUCTION OF BLOWING DUST INTO THE GRIDDED DATA
WEATHER FIELDS ESPECIALLY ALONG THE INTERSTATE 10 CORRIDOR NORTHWEST
OF TUCSON INTO SOUTH CENTRAL PINAL COUNTY THIS AFTERNOON. THE BULK
OF THESE SHOWERS/TSTMS SHOULD DECREASE IN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY
LATE THIS EVENING FOLLOWED BY GRADUALLY CLEARING SKIES BY DAYBREAK
SUNDAY. HIGH TEMPS THIS AFTERNOON WILL MOSTLY AVERAGE WITHIN A
DEGREE-OR-TWO OF NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION...VALID THRU 02/18Z.
EXPECT SCATTERED -TSRA/-SHRA ACROSS MUCH OF SE ARIZONA THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS SUFFICIENT TO DENOTE
VCTS FOR THE KTUS/KOLS/KDUG TERMINALS GENERALLY FROM 20Z-22Z UNTIL
AROUND 02/01Z OR SO. BRIEF MVFR CONDITIONS WITH WIND GUSTS TO AROUND
40 KTS SHOULD OCCUR WITH THE STRONGER TSRA. OTHERWISE...CLOUD DECKS
WILL MAINLY BE ABOVE 10K FT AGL AND SURFACE WIND LESS THAN 10 KTS
INTO SUNDAY MORNING. AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR TAF
AMENDMENTS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...EXPECT SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS MUCH OF
SOUTHEAST ARIZONA THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THE LEAST FAVORABLE
AREA FOR RAINFALL WILL BE ACROSS WESTERN PIMA COUNTY. A GRADUAL
REDUCTION IN THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE WILL THEN OCCUR SUNDAY THROUGH
TUESDAY...WITH THUNDERSTORMS TUESDAY AFTERNOON CONFINED MAINLY NEAR
THE MOUNTAINS. THEREAFTER...ISOLATED TO SCATTERED AFTERNOON AND
EVENING THUNDERSTORMS WILL PREVAIL MAINLY FROM TUCSON EAST AND SOUTH
WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. OUTSIDE OF THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY...20-FT
WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE TERRAIN DRIVEN AND LESS THAN 15 MPH.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...SOME ISSUES TO CONTEND WITH FOR TODAY`S FORECAST
REVOLVE AROUND SLIGHTLY WARMER MID-LEVEL TEMPERATURES...POSSIBLE
ISSUES WITH ANVIL SHADING OWING TO A SOUTH TO SOUTHEASTERLY STEERING
FLOW...AND THE WIDE VARIETY OF SOLUTIONS OFFERED UP BY VARIOUS
CONVECTIVE ALLOWING MODELS. HOWEVER...BOTH THE 05Z RUN OF THE HRRRX
(EXPERIMENTAL HRRR) AND THE 00Z UNIV. OF AZ WRF-NAM SOLUTIONS PAINT
A FAIRLY SIMILAR PICTURE FOR TODAY...WITH THE MAIN CONVECTIVE FOCUS
ACROSS PARTS OF PINAL...PIMA...AND SANTA CRUZ COUNTIES AND GENERALLY
MORE ISOLATED COVERAGE OUT EAST. THESE SOLUTIONS GENERALLY LINE UP
WITH THE RECENT RUNS OF THE NAM/GFS WHICH SHOW THE BEST INSTABILITY
LINING UP FROM TUCSON AND POINTS WEST...EFFECTIVELY WITHIN THE ZONE
OF HIGHER PW AIR AS MENTIONED EARLIER.

FOR SUNDAY AND BEYOND...THE GENERAL PATTERN IS FORECAST TO BEGIN A
RE-ORGANIZATION PHASE AS THE UPPER-HIGH RECONSOLIDATES...EVENTUALLY
NEAR THE FOUR-CORNERS REGION BY THE MIDDLE TO END OF NEXT WEEK. IN
THE MEAN TIME...SOUTHWESTERLY OR WESTERLY MID-LEVEL FLOW WILL USHER
DRIER AIR INTO THE AREA WHICH WILL RESULT IN MARKEDLY REDUCED
PRECIPITATION CHANCES...PARTICULARLY BY TUESDAY. THEREAFTER...MORE
FAVORABLE SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW SHOULD ONCE AGAIN BEGIN TO PUMP
MOISTURE...AND AS A RESULT SOMEWHAT BETTER SHOWER AND STORM
COVERAGE...BACK INTO THE REGION. THE ROLLER COASTER RIDE THAT IS THE
MONSOON 2015 CONTINUES...

&&

.TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...YOUTUBE...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/TUCSON

FRANCIS
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...CARLAW



  [top]

000
FXUS65 KFGZ 011656
AFDFGZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ
956 AM MST SAT AUG 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...DEEP MOISTURE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS NORTHERN
ARIZONA TODAY WITH SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. THERE WILL BE A SLIGHT DECREASE IN ACTIVITY ON
SUNDAY AS DRIER AIR BEGINS TO MOVE IN FROM THE WEST. THIS DRY AIR
WILL SPREAD EAST ACROSS NORTHERN ARIZONA THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

&&

.UPDATE...ABUNDANT MOISTURE RESIDES OVER NORTHERN ARIZONA THIS
MORNING WITH EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER NORTH OF A PAYSON TO WINDOW
ROCK LINE. THERE ARE SOME LIGHT SHOWERS IN THIS CLOUD SHIELD. THE
PW OFF THE 12Z KFGZ SOUNDING WAS 0.94...ABOVE AVERAGE FOR THIS
TIME OF YEAR. ONLY PARTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS WERE SEEN OVER THE
SOUTHEAST PORTION OF THE CWA. WILL UPDATE THIS MORNING TO DECREASE
POPS AND CLOUD COVER OVER THE SOUTHEAST PORTION OF THE CWA. IT
WILL NOT TAKE LONG FOR THE SURFACE HEATING TO START IN THIS AREA.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION /326 AM MST/...AN ACTIVE SUMMER MONSOON PATTERN
WILL CONTINUE ACROSS NORTHERN ARIZONA TODAY. MOIST SOUTHERLY FLOW
CONTINUES TO STREAM ACROSS THE STATE AS MID LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE
REMAINS SITUATED TO OUR EAST OVER NEW MEXICO AND TEXAS. LIGHT
SHOWER ACTIVITY HAS BEEN DEVELOPING THIS MORNING FROM CENTRAL INTO
NORTHERN ARIZONA AHEAD OF AN INVERTED TROUGH FEATURE OVER
SOUTHWEST ARIZONA. THIS TROUGH LIFTS NORTH TODAY ACROSS WESTERN
PORTIONS OF THE STATE. WEAK LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROUGH WILL
CONTINUE TO FUEL SHOWERS THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS...FAVORING
WESTERN ARIZONA. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE THEN EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH EVENING. AREAS WITH LESS MORNING
CLOUD COVER WILL SEE EARLIER DEVELOPMENT WHILE CLOUDED OVER AREAS
THIS MORNING WILL LIKELY SEE LATER DEVELOPMENT. STORM MOTION TODAY
WILL BE FROM SOUTH TO NORTH AT ABOUT 10-15 MPH. LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN
WILL BE THE GREATEST THREAT FROM STORMS TODAY.

THE TROUGH WILL ROTATE THROUGH NORTHWEST ARIZONA AND INTO SOUTHERN
NEVADA TONIGHT. THIS MAY PROLONG SHOWER ACTIVITY THIS EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT AND HAVE KEPT THE CHANCE FOR STORMS IN THE FORECAST
THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.

A SOLID SOUTHWEST FLOW DEVELOPS ON MONDAY AND THE WESTERLY
COMPONENT TO THE WIND HELPS DRAW DRIER AIR INTO ARIZONA. A PRETTY
STOUT BREAK IN MONSOON THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED ON MONDAY
THROUGH WEDNESDAY FOR ALL EXCEPT THE WHITE MOUNTAINS WHICH WILL
CONTINUE TO SEE A CHANCE FOR STORMS. MOISTURE LOOKS TO MAKE A
RETURN BY THURSDAY OF NEXT WEEK WHEN STORM CHANCES WILL INCREASE
ONCE AGAIN ACROSS NORTHERN ARIZONA.

&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 18Z PACKAGE...EXPECT RAIN SHOWERS AND A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS TO CONTINUE ACROSS PORTIONS OF NORTHERN ARIZONA
THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS AND INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON. THE GREATEST
SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE WILL BE ALONG AND WEST OF A LINE
FROM KPGA-KFLG-KPRC. GOOD CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL
DEVELOP ACROSS ALL OF NORTHERN ARIZONA BY LATER IN THE AFTERNOON
INTO THE EVENING. MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE IN LOW
CEILINGS AND VISIBILITY WITH THE STRONGER STORMS. AVIATION
DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDMENTS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...AN ACTIVE MONSOON PATTERN WILL CONTINUE ACROSS
NORTHERN ARIZONA INTO THIS WEEKEND. EXPECT SCATTERED AFTERNOON AND
EVENING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. DRIER AIR WILL START TO MOVE INTO
WESTERN ARIZONA STARTING SUNDAY.

.MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...A DRIER SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO
MOVE OVER NORTHERN ARIZONA WITH DECREASING MONSOON MOISTURE AND
CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. FEWER STORMS ARE EXPECTED EACH
DAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

WE WILL BE DISCONTINUING THE FIRE WEATHER SECTION OF OUR FORECAST
DISCUSSION UNTIL NEXT YEAR. PLEASE SEE OUR FIRE WEATHER ZONE
FORECAST PRODUCT (FWFFGZ) FOR FUTURE FIRE WEATHER DISCUSSIONS.

&&

.FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC...MAS/MCS
AVIATION...RR
FIRE WEATHER...RR


FOR NORTHERN ARIZONA WEATHER INFORMATION VISIT
WEATHER.GOV/FLAGSTAFF



000
FXUS65 KFGZ 011656
AFDFGZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ
956 AM MST SAT AUG 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...DEEP MOISTURE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS NORTHERN
ARIZONA TODAY WITH SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. THERE WILL BE A SLIGHT DECREASE IN ACTIVITY ON
SUNDAY AS DRIER AIR BEGINS TO MOVE IN FROM THE WEST. THIS DRY AIR
WILL SPREAD EAST ACROSS NORTHERN ARIZONA THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

&&

.UPDATE...ABUNDANT MOISTURE RESIDES OVER NORTHERN ARIZONA THIS
MORNING WITH EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER NORTH OF A PAYSON TO WINDOW
ROCK LINE. THERE ARE SOME LIGHT SHOWERS IN THIS CLOUD SHIELD. THE
PW OFF THE 12Z KFGZ SOUNDING WAS 0.94...ABOVE AVERAGE FOR THIS
TIME OF YEAR. ONLY PARTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS WERE SEEN OVER THE
SOUTHEAST PORTION OF THE CWA. WILL UPDATE THIS MORNING TO DECREASE
POPS AND CLOUD COVER OVER THE SOUTHEAST PORTION OF THE CWA. IT
WILL NOT TAKE LONG FOR THE SURFACE HEATING TO START IN THIS AREA.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION /326 AM MST/...AN ACTIVE SUMMER MONSOON PATTERN
WILL CONTINUE ACROSS NORTHERN ARIZONA TODAY. MOIST SOUTHERLY FLOW
CONTINUES TO STREAM ACROSS THE STATE AS MID LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE
REMAINS SITUATED TO OUR EAST OVER NEW MEXICO AND TEXAS. LIGHT
SHOWER ACTIVITY HAS BEEN DEVELOPING THIS MORNING FROM CENTRAL INTO
NORTHERN ARIZONA AHEAD OF AN INVERTED TROUGH FEATURE OVER
SOUTHWEST ARIZONA. THIS TROUGH LIFTS NORTH TODAY ACROSS WESTERN
PORTIONS OF THE STATE. WEAK LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROUGH WILL
CONTINUE TO FUEL SHOWERS THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS...FAVORING
WESTERN ARIZONA. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE THEN EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH EVENING. AREAS WITH LESS MORNING
CLOUD COVER WILL SEE EARLIER DEVELOPMENT WHILE CLOUDED OVER AREAS
THIS MORNING WILL LIKELY SEE LATER DEVELOPMENT. STORM MOTION TODAY
WILL BE FROM SOUTH TO NORTH AT ABOUT 10-15 MPH. LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN
WILL BE THE GREATEST THREAT FROM STORMS TODAY.

THE TROUGH WILL ROTATE THROUGH NORTHWEST ARIZONA AND INTO SOUTHERN
NEVADA TONIGHT. THIS MAY PROLONG SHOWER ACTIVITY THIS EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT AND HAVE KEPT THE CHANCE FOR STORMS IN THE FORECAST
THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.

A SOLID SOUTHWEST FLOW DEVELOPS ON MONDAY AND THE WESTERLY
COMPONENT TO THE WIND HELPS DRAW DRIER AIR INTO ARIZONA. A PRETTY
STOUT BREAK IN MONSOON THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED ON MONDAY
THROUGH WEDNESDAY FOR ALL EXCEPT THE WHITE MOUNTAINS WHICH WILL
CONTINUE TO SEE A CHANCE FOR STORMS. MOISTURE LOOKS TO MAKE A
RETURN BY THURSDAY OF NEXT WEEK WHEN STORM CHANCES WILL INCREASE
ONCE AGAIN ACROSS NORTHERN ARIZONA.

&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 18Z PACKAGE...EXPECT RAIN SHOWERS AND A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS TO CONTINUE ACROSS PORTIONS OF NORTHERN ARIZONA
THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS AND INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON. THE GREATEST
SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE WILL BE ALONG AND WEST OF A LINE
FROM KPGA-KFLG-KPRC. GOOD CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL
DEVELOP ACROSS ALL OF NORTHERN ARIZONA BY LATER IN THE AFTERNOON
INTO THE EVENING. MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE IN LOW
CEILINGS AND VISIBILITY WITH THE STRONGER STORMS. AVIATION
DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDMENTS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...AN ACTIVE MONSOON PATTERN WILL CONTINUE ACROSS
NORTHERN ARIZONA INTO THIS WEEKEND. EXPECT SCATTERED AFTERNOON AND
EVENING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. DRIER AIR WILL START TO MOVE INTO
WESTERN ARIZONA STARTING SUNDAY.

.MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...A DRIER SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO
MOVE OVER NORTHERN ARIZONA WITH DECREASING MONSOON MOISTURE AND
CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. FEWER STORMS ARE EXPECTED EACH
DAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

WE WILL BE DISCONTINUING THE FIRE WEATHER SECTION OF OUR FORECAST
DISCUSSION UNTIL NEXT YEAR. PLEASE SEE OUR FIRE WEATHER ZONE
FORECAST PRODUCT (FWFFGZ) FOR FUTURE FIRE WEATHER DISCUSSIONS.

&&

.FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC...MAS/MCS
AVIATION...RR
FIRE WEATHER...RR


FOR NORTHERN ARIZONA WEATHER INFORMATION VISIT
WEATHER.GOV/FLAGSTAFF



000
FXUS65 KFGZ 011656
AFDFGZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ
956 AM MST SAT AUG 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...DEEP MOISTURE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS NORTHERN
ARIZONA TODAY WITH SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. THERE WILL BE A SLIGHT DECREASE IN ACTIVITY ON
SUNDAY AS DRIER AIR BEGINS TO MOVE IN FROM THE WEST. THIS DRY AIR
WILL SPREAD EAST ACROSS NORTHERN ARIZONA THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

&&

.UPDATE...ABUNDANT MOISTURE RESIDES OVER NORTHERN ARIZONA THIS
MORNING WITH EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER NORTH OF A PAYSON TO WINDOW
ROCK LINE. THERE ARE SOME LIGHT SHOWERS IN THIS CLOUD SHIELD. THE
PW OFF THE 12Z KFGZ SOUNDING WAS 0.94...ABOVE AVERAGE FOR THIS
TIME OF YEAR. ONLY PARTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS WERE SEEN OVER THE
SOUTHEAST PORTION OF THE CWA. WILL UPDATE THIS MORNING TO DECREASE
POPS AND CLOUD COVER OVER THE SOUTHEAST PORTION OF THE CWA. IT
WILL NOT TAKE LONG FOR THE SURFACE HEATING TO START IN THIS AREA.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION /326 AM MST/...AN ACTIVE SUMMER MONSOON PATTERN
WILL CONTINUE ACROSS NORTHERN ARIZONA TODAY. MOIST SOUTHERLY FLOW
CONTINUES TO STREAM ACROSS THE STATE AS MID LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE
REMAINS SITUATED TO OUR EAST OVER NEW MEXICO AND TEXAS. LIGHT
SHOWER ACTIVITY HAS BEEN DEVELOPING THIS MORNING FROM CENTRAL INTO
NORTHERN ARIZONA AHEAD OF AN INVERTED TROUGH FEATURE OVER
SOUTHWEST ARIZONA. THIS TROUGH LIFTS NORTH TODAY ACROSS WESTERN
PORTIONS OF THE STATE. WEAK LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROUGH WILL
CONTINUE TO FUEL SHOWERS THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS...FAVORING
WESTERN ARIZONA. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE THEN EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH EVENING. AREAS WITH LESS MORNING
CLOUD COVER WILL SEE EARLIER DEVELOPMENT WHILE CLOUDED OVER AREAS
THIS MORNING WILL LIKELY SEE LATER DEVELOPMENT. STORM MOTION TODAY
WILL BE FROM SOUTH TO NORTH AT ABOUT 10-15 MPH. LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN
WILL BE THE GREATEST THREAT FROM STORMS TODAY.

THE TROUGH WILL ROTATE THROUGH NORTHWEST ARIZONA AND INTO SOUTHERN
NEVADA TONIGHT. THIS MAY PROLONG SHOWER ACTIVITY THIS EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT AND HAVE KEPT THE CHANCE FOR STORMS IN THE FORECAST
THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.

A SOLID SOUTHWEST FLOW DEVELOPS ON MONDAY AND THE WESTERLY
COMPONENT TO THE WIND HELPS DRAW DRIER AIR INTO ARIZONA. A PRETTY
STOUT BREAK IN MONSOON THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED ON MONDAY
THROUGH WEDNESDAY FOR ALL EXCEPT THE WHITE MOUNTAINS WHICH WILL
CONTINUE TO SEE A CHANCE FOR STORMS. MOISTURE LOOKS TO MAKE A
RETURN BY THURSDAY OF NEXT WEEK WHEN STORM CHANCES WILL INCREASE
ONCE AGAIN ACROSS NORTHERN ARIZONA.

&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 18Z PACKAGE...EXPECT RAIN SHOWERS AND A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS TO CONTINUE ACROSS PORTIONS OF NORTHERN ARIZONA
THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS AND INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON. THE GREATEST
SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE WILL BE ALONG AND WEST OF A LINE
FROM KPGA-KFLG-KPRC. GOOD CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL
DEVELOP ACROSS ALL OF NORTHERN ARIZONA BY LATER IN THE AFTERNOON
INTO THE EVENING. MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE IN LOW
CEILINGS AND VISIBILITY WITH THE STRONGER STORMS. AVIATION
DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDMENTS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...AN ACTIVE MONSOON PATTERN WILL CONTINUE ACROSS
NORTHERN ARIZONA INTO THIS WEEKEND. EXPECT SCATTERED AFTERNOON AND
EVENING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. DRIER AIR WILL START TO MOVE INTO
WESTERN ARIZONA STARTING SUNDAY.

.MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...A DRIER SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO
MOVE OVER NORTHERN ARIZONA WITH DECREASING MONSOON MOISTURE AND
CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. FEWER STORMS ARE EXPECTED EACH
DAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

WE WILL BE DISCONTINUING THE FIRE WEATHER SECTION OF OUR FORECAST
DISCUSSION UNTIL NEXT YEAR. PLEASE SEE OUR FIRE WEATHER ZONE
FORECAST PRODUCT (FWFFGZ) FOR FUTURE FIRE WEATHER DISCUSSIONS.

&&

.FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC...MAS/MCS
AVIATION...RR
FIRE WEATHER...RR


FOR NORTHERN ARIZONA WEATHER INFORMATION VISIT
WEATHER.GOV/FLAGSTAFF



000
FXUS65 KFGZ 011656
AFDFGZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ
956 AM MST SAT AUG 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...DEEP MOISTURE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS NORTHERN
ARIZONA TODAY WITH SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. THERE WILL BE A SLIGHT DECREASE IN ACTIVITY ON
SUNDAY AS DRIER AIR BEGINS TO MOVE IN FROM THE WEST. THIS DRY AIR
WILL SPREAD EAST ACROSS NORTHERN ARIZONA THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

&&

.UPDATE...ABUNDANT MOISTURE RESIDES OVER NORTHERN ARIZONA THIS
MORNING WITH EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER NORTH OF A PAYSON TO WINDOW
ROCK LINE. THERE ARE SOME LIGHT SHOWERS IN THIS CLOUD SHIELD. THE
PW OFF THE 12Z KFGZ SOUNDING WAS 0.94...ABOVE AVERAGE FOR THIS
TIME OF YEAR. ONLY PARTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS WERE SEEN OVER THE
SOUTHEAST PORTION OF THE CWA. WILL UPDATE THIS MORNING TO DECREASE
POPS AND CLOUD COVER OVER THE SOUTHEAST PORTION OF THE CWA. IT
WILL NOT TAKE LONG FOR THE SURFACE HEATING TO START IN THIS AREA.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION /326 AM MST/...AN ACTIVE SUMMER MONSOON PATTERN
WILL CONTINUE ACROSS NORTHERN ARIZONA TODAY. MOIST SOUTHERLY FLOW
CONTINUES TO STREAM ACROSS THE STATE AS MID LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE
REMAINS SITUATED TO OUR EAST OVER NEW MEXICO AND TEXAS. LIGHT
SHOWER ACTIVITY HAS BEEN DEVELOPING THIS MORNING FROM CENTRAL INTO
NORTHERN ARIZONA AHEAD OF AN INVERTED TROUGH FEATURE OVER
SOUTHWEST ARIZONA. THIS TROUGH LIFTS NORTH TODAY ACROSS WESTERN
PORTIONS OF THE STATE. WEAK LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROUGH WILL
CONTINUE TO FUEL SHOWERS THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS...FAVORING
WESTERN ARIZONA. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE THEN EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH EVENING. AREAS WITH LESS MORNING
CLOUD COVER WILL SEE EARLIER DEVELOPMENT WHILE CLOUDED OVER AREAS
THIS MORNING WILL LIKELY SEE LATER DEVELOPMENT. STORM MOTION TODAY
WILL BE FROM SOUTH TO NORTH AT ABOUT 10-15 MPH. LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN
WILL BE THE GREATEST THREAT FROM STORMS TODAY.

THE TROUGH WILL ROTATE THROUGH NORTHWEST ARIZONA AND INTO SOUTHERN
NEVADA TONIGHT. THIS MAY PROLONG SHOWER ACTIVITY THIS EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT AND HAVE KEPT THE CHANCE FOR STORMS IN THE FORECAST
THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.

A SOLID SOUTHWEST FLOW DEVELOPS ON MONDAY AND THE WESTERLY
COMPONENT TO THE WIND HELPS DRAW DRIER AIR INTO ARIZONA. A PRETTY
STOUT BREAK IN MONSOON THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED ON MONDAY
THROUGH WEDNESDAY FOR ALL EXCEPT THE WHITE MOUNTAINS WHICH WILL
CONTINUE TO SEE A CHANCE FOR STORMS. MOISTURE LOOKS TO MAKE A
RETURN BY THURSDAY OF NEXT WEEK WHEN STORM CHANCES WILL INCREASE
ONCE AGAIN ACROSS NORTHERN ARIZONA.

&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 18Z PACKAGE...EXPECT RAIN SHOWERS AND A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS TO CONTINUE ACROSS PORTIONS OF NORTHERN ARIZONA
THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS AND INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON. THE GREATEST
SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE WILL BE ALONG AND WEST OF A LINE
FROM KPGA-KFLG-KPRC. GOOD CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL
DEVELOP ACROSS ALL OF NORTHERN ARIZONA BY LATER IN THE AFTERNOON
INTO THE EVENING. MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE IN LOW
CEILINGS AND VISIBILITY WITH THE STRONGER STORMS. AVIATION
DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDMENTS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...AN ACTIVE MONSOON PATTERN WILL CONTINUE ACROSS
NORTHERN ARIZONA INTO THIS WEEKEND. EXPECT SCATTERED AFTERNOON AND
EVENING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. DRIER AIR WILL START TO MOVE INTO
WESTERN ARIZONA STARTING SUNDAY.

.MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...A DRIER SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO
MOVE OVER NORTHERN ARIZONA WITH DECREASING MONSOON MOISTURE AND
CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. FEWER STORMS ARE EXPECTED EACH
DAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

WE WILL BE DISCONTINUING THE FIRE WEATHER SECTION OF OUR FORECAST
DISCUSSION UNTIL NEXT YEAR. PLEASE SEE OUR FIRE WEATHER ZONE
FORECAST PRODUCT (FWFFGZ) FOR FUTURE FIRE WEATHER DISCUSSIONS.

&&

.FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC...MAS/MCS
AVIATION...RR
FIRE WEATHER...RR


FOR NORTHERN ARIZONA WEATHER INFORMATION VISIT
WEATHER.GOV/FLAGSTAFF


  [top]

000
FXUS65 KPSR 011643
AFDPSR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PHOENIX AZ
943 AM MST SAT AUG 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
STORM CHANCES WILL BE LESS TODAY WITH CHANCES LIMITED TO AREAS EAST
OF THE LOWER COLORADO RIVER VALLEY. FURTHER DRYING OCCURS NEXT WEEK
WITH STORM CHANCES CONFINED TO THE HIGHER TERRAIN EAST OF PHOENIX.
TEMPERATURES WILL HOVER NEAR NORMAL THROUGH NEXT WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
MID MORNING SATELLITE SHOWS A WELL DEFINED MCV CENTERED OVER LA PAZ
COUNTY ALMOST STATIONARY BUT...SLOWLY DRIFTING NORTHWARD. AREAWIDE
ANALYSIS SHOWS A FAIRLY WORKED OVER ATMOSPHERE WITH SURFACE
TEMPERATURES RUNNING AROUND 4-8 DEGREES COOLER THAN YESTERDAY AT THIS
TIME...BUT DEW POINTS ARE A BIT HIGHER. SOME LEFTOVER SHOWERS REMAIN
NEAR THE MCV OVER NORTHERN LA PAZ AND FAR NORTHEAST RIVERSIDE
COUNTIES...BUT THAT IS IT FOR ANY ONGOING ACTIVITY. WILL TAKE SOME
TIME TO RECHARGE THE ATMOSPHERE AFTER YESTERDAY`S STORMS...SO
THINKING TODAY WILL BE A SLOWER START...BUT STILL HAS POTENTIAL FOR
AN ACTIVE DAY.

WE DO HAVE BETTER DIFFLUENCE ALOFT THAN YESTERDAY WITH A WEAK UPPER
LEVEL JET MAX FORECAST TO MOVE NORTHWARD THROUGH ARIZONA LATER
TODAY...BUT INSTABILITY WILL BE LESS. SHOULD SEE SOME ADDITIONAL
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS NEAR THE MCV AREA THIS AFTERNOON...BUT IT
WILL BE FIGHTING DRIER AIR THAT WILL START TO WORK IN FROM THE
SOUTHWEST. GENERALLY CLEAR SKIES OVER SOUTHEAST AND SOUTH-CENTRAL
ARIZONA WILL HELP TO DESTABILIZE THE ATMOSPHERE BY EARLY AFTERNOON
TO FIRE OFF HIGHER TERRAIN STORMS. STORM DOWNDRAFTS AND OUTFLOWS WILL
BE LESS VIGOROUS TODAY DUE TO A LESS FAVORABLE ATMOSPHERIC
PROFILE...BUT CAN`T RULE OUT THE POSSIBILITY OF SOME LOCALIZED
STRONG WIND GUSTS.

&&

.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
PER LATEST RADAR AND SATELLITE IMAGERY...MOST OF THE SOUTH CENTRAL
DESERTS ARE QUIET ASIDE FROM SOME DEVELOPING STORMS ACROSS SOUTHERN
LA PAZ COUNTY. UNDER THE BULLSEYE OF MAX PRECIPITABLE WATER /1.7 -
1.8 INCH/ AND RIDING A SHORTWAVE INVERTED TROUGH FEATURE MOVING NORTH
THROUGH WESTERN ARIZONA...THERE SEEMS TO BE JUST ENOUGH INSTABILITY
TO GENERATE SOME THUNDERSTORMS EARLY THIS MORNING. CONCERNING THE
MESOSCALE CONVECTIVE MODELS...THE GFS FLAVORS HAVE INITIALIZED BETTER
THAN THE NAM...HINTING AT SOME EARLY AM ACTIVITY ACROSS WESTERN AZ
AND FAR SOUTHEASTERN CA. AS THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW CONTINUES TO SHIFT
MORE TO A SOUTHERLY DIRECTION...MID TO UPPER LEVEL WINDS SUPPORT A
DIFLUENT ZONE FROM PARKER TO SHOW LOW WHERE THE RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE TO THE EAST MOVES WEST AND AN EMBEDDED TROUGH FEATURE PUSHES
NORTH THROUGH SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA. TEMPERATURES WARMED A FEW DEGREES
HIGHER THAN ANTICIPATED FRIDAY...TIPPING A HAT TO THE CLEAR SKIES
WHICH IN TURN GAVE ENOUGH DAYTIME HEATING TO GENERATE CONVECTIVE
INITIATION EARLY IN THE DAY.

CLEARING SKIES FROM THE SOUTH WILL AGAIN PLAY INTO CONVECTIVE
INITIATION PROVIDING THE ATMOSPHERE IS NOT COMPLETELY MIXED THROUGH
AND OVERWORKED FROM LAST EVENING. LITTLE CHANGE IN ATMOSPHERIC
MOISTURE FROM AREA UPPER AIR SOUNDINGS COMPARING 12Z FRIDAY TO 00Z
SATURDAY. THE BIG FACTOR AGAIN TODAY WILL BE SUFFICIENT DAYTIME
HEATING. UTILIZING THE TROUGH TO THE WEST AND THE REMNANT INVERTED
TROUGH FEATURE SHOULD BE THE DYNAMIC LIFT NEEDED TO DRIVE STORM
DEVELOPMENT. THE HIGHER TERRAIN MOUNTAIN LOCATIONS WILL BE MORE
FAVORABLE FOR ACTIVITY.

LOOKING AHEAD SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY WILL BE MUCH QUIETER ON THE
STORM FRONT...AS SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW SETTLES IN WITH THE HIGH MOVING
FARTHER WEST. A DRYING AND SUBTLE WARMING TREND WILL TAKE PLACE
ACROSS THE DESERT SOUTHWEST...ALLOWING TEMPERATURES TO REACH JUST
ABOVE SEASONAL AVERAGE. MORE OF A MONSOON PATTERN WILL RETURN LATE
IN THE WEEK WITH A RETURN TO SOUTH-SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW AND BACK ABOVE
THE 90TH PERCENTILE IN TERMS OF PRECIPITABLE WATER READINGS.

&&

.AVIATION...
SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA INCLUDING KPHX...KIWA...AND KSDL...
AMPLE AREA OF DEBRIS CLOUDS LINGER ACROSS SOUTH-CENTRAL AZ...AND IN
PARTICULAR AT TIME OF THIS WRITING ALONG THE NORTHERN MARICOPA
COUNTY LINE. SOME SHOWERS HAVE POPPED-UP ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE
NORTH VALLEY...SO AM VCSH WERE INCLUDED IN THE KPHX AND KSDL TAFS.
SFC FLOW THIS AM MAINTAINING SOME WEAK WESTERLY
INFLUENCE...OTHERWISE WINDS WILL BE VRB UNTIL MIDDAY WHEN STRONGER
WEST FLOW AT THE SFC AND ALOFT TRANSITIONS INTO THE AREA. COULD SEE
ANOTHER ROUND OF POP-UP STORMS OVER PARTS OF THE DESERTS THIS
AFTERNOON...WITH INITIATION PROGGED ATTM AROUND 01/22Z TO 02/00Z.
SOUTHERLY AM CLOUD/STORM MOTION WILL TRANSITION TO WESTERLY BY THE
AFTERNOON...SENDING ANY PTNL STORMS THAT MAY FORM ACROSS W/SW
MARICOPA COUNTY TOWARDS THE PHX METRO. COVERAGE SHOULD BE MORE
LIMITED THAT WHAT WAS OBSERVED ON FRIDAY...BUT WITH STILL PLENTY OF
MOISTURE IN PLACE DURING THE DAY...CANNOT RULE OUT SOME VC DEVELOPMENT
THIS AFTN.

SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA AND SOUTHWEST ARIZONA INCLUDING KIPL AND
KBLH...
PASSING FEW-SCT MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO STREAM
MOSTLY TO THE NORTH BEFORE SKIES CLEAR ALMOST COMPLETELY BY THE LATE
AFTN/EVENING HOURS. DRYING WEST TO SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT SHOULD KEEP
ANY STORM CHANCES EAST IN AZ THROUGHOUT THE DAY. HOWEVER...A
DECAYING STORM CIRCULATION CURRENTLY DRIFTING THROUGH WESTERN AZ
ALONG INTERSTATE 10 WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY MOVE TOWARDS THE CO
RIVER AND BLYTHE...GENERATING SOME POP-UP SHOWER AND THUNDER
ACTIVITY INTO THE EARLY AM. MEANWHILE...WINDS OVERALL TO FAVOR
SOUTHERLY HEADINGS FOR KBLH AND WESTERLY FOR KIPL.

AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDED TAFS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...
SOUTHWEST TO WEST FLOW THROUGH THE BULK OF THE ATMOSPHERIC
COLUMN...SFC TO UPPER LEVELS...WILL SWEEP THE MONSOON MOISTURE
SURFACE INTO FAR EASTERN AZ. STORM CHANCES WILL BE RELEGATED TO THE
HIGHER TERRAIN WITH MOSTLY QUIET CONDITIONS EXPECTED OVER THE LOWER
DESERT ELEVATIONS. MINIMUM RH VALUES WILL BEGIN TO SETTLE INTO THE
TEENS WHILE STILL MAKING MOSTLY MODEST TO FAIR OVERNIGHT RECOVERIES.
THE SLIGHTLY DRIER AIRMASS AND BUILDING UPPER RIDGE HEIGHTS WILL
LEND THEMSELVES TOWARD WARMER SFC CONDITIONS...AT OR ABOVE SEASONAL
NORMALS. WINDS WILL FOLLOW FAMILIAR WARM SEASON PATTERNS. BY MIDWEEK
A SUBTLE RETURN OF GULF MOISTURE MAY BOOST AREA HUMIDITIES AND BRING
SOME STORM CHANCES OUT OF THE MOUNTAINS AND BACK INTO THE LOWER AZ
DESERT LOCALES. DAYTIME HUMIDITIES WILL RETURN TO READINGS IN THE
UPPER TEENS TO LOW TWENTIES.

&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT CONDITIONS ACCORDING TO STANDARD
OPERATING PROCEDURES.

&&

.PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AZ...NONE.
CA...NONE.
&&

$$

VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/PHOENIX

DISCUSSION...KUHLMAN
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...DEWEY
AVIATION...NOLTE
FIRE WEATHER...NOLTE



000
FXUS65 KPSR 011643
AFDPSR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PHOENIX AZ
943 AM MST SAT AUG 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
STORM CHANCES WILL BE LESS TODAY WITH CHANCES LIMITED TO AREAS EAST
OF THE LOWER COLORADO RIVER VALLEY. FURTHER DRYING OCCURS NEXT WEEK
WITH STORM CHANCES CONFINED TO THE HIGHER TERRAIN EAST OF PHOENIX.
TEMPERATURES WILL HOVER NEAR NORMAL THROUGH NEXT WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
MID MORNING SATELLITE SHOWS A WELL DEFINED MCV CENTERED OVER LA PAZ
COUNTY ALMOST STATIONARY BUT...SLOWLY DRIFTING NORTHWARD. AREAWIDE
ANALYSIS SHOWS A FAIRLY WORKED OVER ATMOSPHERE WITH SURFACE
TEMPERATURES RUNNING AROUND 4-8 DEGREES COOLER THAN YESTERDAY AT THIS
TIME...BUT DEW POINTS ARE A BIT HIGHER. SOME LEFTOVER SHOWERS REMAIN
NEAR THE MCV OVER NORTHERN LA PAZ AND FAR NORTHEAST RIVERSIDE
COUNTIES...BUT THAT IS IT FOR ANY ONGOING ACTIVITY. WILL TAKE SOME
TIME TO RECHARGE THE ATMOSPHERE AFTER YESTERDAY`S STORMS...SO
THINKING TODAY WILL BE A SLOWER START...BUT STILL HAS POTENTIAL FOR
AN ACTIVE DAY.

WE DO HAVE BETTER DIFFLUENCE ALOFT THAN YESTERDAY WITH A WEAK UPPER
LEVEL JET MAX FORECAST TO MOVE NORTHWARD THROUGH ARIZONA LATER
TODAY...BUT INSTABILITY WILL BE LESS. SHOULD SEE SOME ADDITIONAL
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS NEAR THE MCV AREA THIS AFTERNOON...BUT IT
WILL BE FIGHTING DRIER AIR THAT WILL START TO WORK IN FROM THE
SOUTHWEST. GENERALLY CLEAR SKIES OVER SOUTHEAST AND SOUTH-CENTRAL
ARIZONA WILL HELP TO DESTABILIZE THE ATMOSPHERE BY EARLY AFTERNOON
TO FIRE OFF HIGHER TERRAIN STORMS. STORM DOWNDRAFTS AND OUTFLOWS WILL
BE LESS VIGOROUS TODAY DUE TO A LESS FAVORABLE ATMOSPHERIC
PROFILE...BUT CAN`T RULE OUT THE POSSIBILITY OF SOME LOCALIZED
STRONG WIND GUSTS.

&&

.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
PER LATEST RADAR AND SATELLITE IMAGERY...MOST OF THE SOUTH CENTRAL
DESERTS ARE QUIET ASIDE FROM SOME DEVELOPING STORMS ACROSS SOUTHERN
LA PAZ COUNTY. UNDER THE BULLSEYE OF MAX PRECIPITABLE WATER /1.7 -
1.8 INCH/ AND RIDING A SHORTWAVE INVERTED TROUGH FEATURE MOVING NORTH
THROUGH WESTERN ARIZONA...THERE SEEMS TO BE JUST ENOUGH INSTABILITY
TO GENERATE SOME THUNDERSTORMS EARLY THIS MORNING. CONCERNING THE
MESOSCALE CONVECTIVE MODELS...THE GFS FLAVORS HAVE INITIALIZED BETTER
THAN THE NAM...HINTING AT SOME EARLY AM ACTIVITY ACROSS WESTERN AZ
AND FAR SOUTHEASTERN CA. AS THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW CONTINUES TO SHIFT
MORE TO A SOUTHERLY DIRECTION...MID TO UPPER LEVEL WINDS SUPPORT A
DIFLUENT ZONE FROM PARKER TO SHOW LOW WHERE THE RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE TO THE EAST MOVES WEST AND AN EMBEDDED TROUGH FEATURE PUSHES
NORTH THROUGH SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA. TEMPERATURES WARMED A FEW DEGREES
HIGHER THAN ANTICIPATED FRIDAY...TIPPING A HAT TO THE CLEAR SKIES
WHICH IN TURN GAVE ENOUGH DAYTIME HEATING TO GENERATE CONVECTIVE
INITIATION EARLY IN THE DAY.

CLEARING SKIES FROM THE SOUTH WILL AGAIN PLAY INTO CONVECTIVE
INITIATION PROVIDING THE ATMOSPHERE IS NOT COMPLETELY MIXED THROUGH
AND OVERWORKED FROM LAST EVENING. LITTLE CHANGE IN ATMOSPHERIC
MOISTURE FROM AREA UPPER AIR SOUNDINGS COMPARING 12Z FRIDAY TO 00Z
SATURDAY. THE BIG FACTOR AGAIN TODAY WILL BE SUFFICIENT DAYTIME
HEATING. UTILIZING THE TROUGH TO THE WEST AND THE REMNANT INVERTED
TROUGH FEATURE SHOULD BE THE DYNAMIC LIFT NEEDED TO DRIVE STORM
DEVELOPMENT. THE HIGHER TERRAIN MOUNTAIN LOCATIONS WILL BE MORE
FAVORABLE FOR ACTIVITY.

LOOKING AHEAD SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY WILL BE MUCH QUIETER ON THE
STORM FRONT...AS SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW SETTLES IN WITH THE HIGH MOVING
FARTHER WEST. A DRYING AND SUBTLE WARMING TREND WILL TAKE PLACE
ACROSS THE DESERT SOUTHWEST...ALLOWING TEMPERATURES TO REACH JUST
ABOVE SEASONAL AVERAGE. MORE OF A MONSOON PATTERN WILL RETURN LATE
IN THE WEEK WITH A RETURN TO SOUTH-SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW AND BACK ABOVE
THE 90TH PERCENTILE IN TERMS OF PRECIPITABLE WATER READINGS.

&&

.AVIATION...
SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA INCLUDING KPHX...KIWA...AND KSDL...
AMPLE AREA OF DEBRIS CLOUDS LINGER ACROSS SOUTH-CENTRAL AZ...AND IN
PARTICULAR AT TIME OF THIS WRITING ALONG THE NORTHERN MARICOPA
COUNTY LINE. SOME SHOWERS HAVE POPPED-UP ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE
NORTH VALLEY...SO AM VCSH WERE INCLUDED IN THE KPHX AND KSDL TAFS.
SFC FLOW THIS AM MAINTAINING SOME WEAK WESTERLY
INFLUENCE...OTHERWISE WINDS WILL BE VRB UNTIL MIDDAY WHEN STRONGER
WEST FLOW AT THE SFC AND ALOFT TRANSITIONS INTO THE AREA. COULD SEE
ANOTHER ROUND OF POP-UP STORMS OVER PARTS OF THE DESERTS THIS
AFTERNOON...WITH INITIATION PROGGED ATTM AROUND 01/22Z TO 02/00Z.
SOUTHERLY AM CLOUD/STORM MOTION WILL TRANSITION TO WESTERLY BY THE
AFTERNOON...SENDING ANY PTNL STORMS THAT MAY FORM ACROSS W/SW
MARICOPA COUNTY TOWARDS THE PHX METRO. COVERAGE SHOULD BE MORE
LIMITED THAT WHAT WAS OBSERVED ON FRIDAY...BUT WITH STILL PLENTY OF
MOISTURE IN PLACE DURING THE DAY...CANNOT RULE OUT SOME VC DEVELOPMENT
THIS AFTN.

SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA AND SOUTHWEST ARIZONA INCLUDING KIPL AND
KBLH...
PASSING FEW-SCT MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO STREAM
MOSTLY TO THE NORTH BEFORE SKIES CLEAR ALMOST COMPLETELY BY THE LATE
AFTN/EVENING HOURS. DRYING WEST TO SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT SHOULD KEEP
ANY STORM CHANCES EAST IN AZ THROUGHOUT THE DAY. HOWEVER...A
DECAYING STORM CIRCULATION CURRENTLY DRIFTING THROUGH WESTERN AZ
ALONG INTERSTATE 10 WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY MOVE TOWARDS THE CO
RIVER AND BLYTHE...GENERATING SOME POP-UP SHOWER AND THUNDER
ACTIVITY INTO THE EARLY AM. MEANWHILE...WINDS OVERALL TO FAVOR
SOUTHERLY HEADINGS FOR KBLH AND WESTERLY FOR KIPL.

AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDED TAFS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...
SOUTHWEST TO WEST FLOW THROUGH THE BULK OF THE ATMOSPHERIC
COLUMN...SFC TO UPPER LEVELS...WILL SWEEP THE MONSOON MOISTURE
SURFACE INTO FAR EASTERN AZ. STORM CHANCES WILL BE RELEGATED TO THE
HIGHER TERRAIN WITH MOSTLY QUIET CONDITIONS EXPECTED OVER THE LOWER
DESERT ELEVATIONS. MINIMUM RH VALUES WILL BEGIN TO SETTLE INTO THE
TEENS WHILE STILL MAKING MOSTLY MODEST TO FAIR OVERNIGHT RECOVERIES.
THE SLIGHTLY DRIER AIRMASS AND BUILDING UPPER RIDGE HEIGHTS WILL
LEND THEMSELVES TOWARD WARMER SFC CONDITIONS...AT OR ABOVE SEASONAL
NORMALS. WINDS WILL FOLLOW FAMILIAR WARM SEASON PATTERNS. BY MIDWEEK
A SUBTLE RETURN OF GULF MOISTURE MAY BOOST AREA HUMIDITIES AND BRING
SOME STORM CHANCES OUT OF THE MOUNTAINS AND BACK INTO THE LOWER AZ
DESERT LOCALES. DAYTIME HUMIDITIES WILL RETURN TO READINGS IN THE
UPPER TEENS TO LOW TWENTIES.

&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT CONDITIONS ACCORDING TO STANDARD
OPERATING PROCEDURES.

&&

.PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AZ...NONE.
CA...NONE.
&&

$$

VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/PHOENIX

DISCUSSION...KUHLMAN
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...DEWEY
AVIATION...NOLTE
FIRE WEATHER...NOLTE



000
FXUS65 KPSR 011643
AFDPSR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PHOENIX AZ
943 AM MST SAT AUG 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
STORM CHANCES WILL BE LESS TODAY WITH CHANCES LIMITED TO AREAS EAST
OF THE LOWER COLORADO RIVER VALLEY. FURTHER DRYING OCCURS NEXT WEEK
WITH STORM CHANCES CONFINED TO THE HIGHER TERRAIN EAST OF PHOENIX.
TEMPERATURES WILL HOVER NEAR NORMAL THROUGH NEXT WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
MID MORNING SATELLITE SHOWS A WELL DEFINED MCV CENTERED OVER LA PAZ
COUNTY ALMOST STATIONARY BUT...SLOWLY DRIFTING NORTHWARD. AREAWIDE
ANALYSIS SHOWS A FAIRLY WORKED OVER ATMOSPHERE WITH SURFACE
TEMPERATURES RUNNING AROUND 4-8 DEGREES COOLER THAN YESTERDAY AT THIS
TIME...BUT DEW POINTS ARE A BIT HIGHER. SOME LEFTOVER SHOWERS REMAIN
NEAR THE MCV OVER NORTHERN LA PAZ AND FAR NORTHEAST RIVERSIDE
COUNTIES...BUT THAT IS IT FOR ANY ONGOING ACTIVITY. WILL TAKE SOME
TIME TO RECHARGE THE ATMOSPHERE AFTER YESTERDAY`S STORMS...SO
THINKING TODAY WILL BE A SLOWER START...BUT STILL HAS POTENTIAL FOR
AN ACTIVE DAY.

WE DO HAVE BETTER DIFFLUENCE ALOFT THAN YESTERDAY WITH A WEAK UPPER
LEVEL JET MAX FORECAST TO MOVE NORTHWARD THROUGH ARIZONA LATER
TODAY...BUT INSTABILITY WILL BE LESS. SHOULD SEE SOME ADDITIONAL
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS NEAR THE MCV AREA THIS AFTERNOON...BUT IT
WILL BE FIGHTING DRIER AIR THAT WILL START TO WORK IN FROM THE
SOUTHWEST. GENERALLY CLEAR SKIES OVER SOUTHEAST AND SOUTH-CENTRAL
ARIZONA WILL HELP TO DESTABILIZE THE ATMOSPHERE BY EARLY AFTERNOON
TO FIRE OFF HIGHER TERRAIN STORMS. STORM DOWNDRAFTS AND OUTFLOWS WILL
BE LESS VIGOROUS TODAY DUE TO A LESS FAVORABLE ATMOSPHERIC
PROFILE...BUT CAN`T RULE OUT THE POSSIBILITY OF SOME LOCALIZED
STRONG WIND GUSTS.

&&

.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
PER LATEST RADAR AND SATELLITE IMAGERY...MOST OF THE SOUTH CENTRAL
DESERTS ARE QUIET ASIDE FROM SOME DEVELOPING STORMS ACROSS SOUTHERN
LA PAZ COUNTY. UNDER THE BULLSEYE OF MAX PRECIPITABLE WATER /1.7 -
1.8 INCH/ AND RIDING A SHORTWAVE INVERTED TROUGH FEATURE MOVING NORTH
THROUGH WESTERN ARIZONA...THERE SEEMS TO BE JUST ENOUGH INSTABILITY
TO GENERATE SOME THUNDERSTORMS EARLY THIS MORNING. CONCERNING THE
MESOSCALE CONVECTIVE MODELS...THE GFS FLAVORS HAVE INITIALIZED BETTER
THAN THE NAM...HINTING AT SOME EARLY AM ACTIVITY ACROSS WESTERN AZ
AND FAR SOUTHEASTERN CA. AS THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW CONTINUES TO SHIFT
MORE TO A SOUTHERLY DIRECTION...MID TO UPPER LEVEL WINDS SUPPORT A
DIFLUENT ZONE FROM PARKER TO SHOW LOW WHERE THE RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE TO THE EAST MOVES WEST AND AN EMBEDDED TROUGH FEATURE PUSHES
NORTH THROUGH SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA. TEMPERATURES WARMED A FEW DEGREES
HIGHER THAN ANTICIPATED FRIDAY...TIPPING A HAT TO THE CLEAR SKIES
WHICH IN TURN GAVE ENOUGH DAYTIME HEATING TO GENERATE CONVECTIVE
INITIATION EARLY IN THE DAY.

CLEARING SKIES FROM THE SOUTH WILL AGAIN PLAY INTO CONVECTIVE
INITIATION PROVIDING THE ATMOSPHERE IS NOT COMPLETELY MIXED THROUGH
AND OVERWORKED FROM LAST EVENING. LITTLE CHANGE IN ATMOSPHERIC
MOISTURE FROM AREA UPPER AIR SOUNDINGS COMPARING 12Z FRIDAY TO 00Z
SATURDAY. THE BIG FACTOR AGAIN TODAY WILL BE SUFFICIENT DAYTIME
HEATING. UTILIZING THE TROUGH TO THE WEST AND THE REMNANT INVERTED
TROUGH FEATURE SHOULD BE THE DYNAMIC LIFT NEEDED TO DRIVE STORM
DEVELOPMENT. THE HIGHER TERRAIN MOUNTAIN LOCATIONS WILL BE MORE
FAVORABLE FOR ACTIVITY.

LOOKING AHEAD SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY WILL BE MUCH QUIETER ON THE
STORM FRONT...AS SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW SETTLES IN WITH THE HIGH MOVING
FARTHER WEST. A DRYING AND SUBTLE WARMING TREND WILL TAKE PLACE
ACROSS THE DESERT SOUTHWEST...ALLOWING TEMPERATURES TO REACH JUST
ABOVE SEASONAL AVERAGE. MORE OF A MONSOON PATTERN WILL RETURN LATE
IN THE WEEK WITH A RETURN TO SOUTH-SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW AND BACK ABOVE
THE 90TH PERCENTILE IN TERMS OF PRECIPITABLE WATER READINGS.

&&

.AVIATION...
SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA INCLUDING KPHX...KIWA...AND KSDL...
AMPLE AREA OF DEBRIS CLOUDS LINGER ACROSS SOUTH-CENTRAL AZ...AND IN
PARTICULAR AT TIME OF THIS WRITING ALONG THE NORTHERN MARICOPA
COUNTY LINE. SOME SHOWERS HAVE POPPED-UP ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE
NORTH VALLEY...SO AM VCSH WERE INCLUDED IN THE KPHX AND KSDL TAFS.
SFC FLOW THIS AM MAINTAINING SOME WEAK WESTERLY
INFLUENCE...OTHERWISE WINDS WILL BE VRB UNTIL MIDDAY WHEN STRONGER
WEST FLOW AT THE SFC AND ALOFT TRANSITIONS INTO THE AREA. COULD SEE
ANOTHER ROUND OF POP-UP STORMS OVER PARTS OF THE DESERTS THIS
AFTERNOON...WITH INITIATION PROGGED ATTM AROUND 01/22Z TO 02/00Z.
SOUTHERLY AM CLOUD/STORM MOTION WILL TRANSITION TO WESTERLY BY THE
AFTERNOON...SENDING ANY PTNL STORMS THAT MAY FORM ACROSS W/SW
MARICOPA COUNTY TOWARDS THE PHX METRO. COVERAGE SHOULD BE MORE
LIMITED THAT WHAT WAS OBSERVED ON FRIDAY...BUT WITH STILL PLENTY OF
MOISTURE IN PLACE DURING THE DAY...CANNOT RULE OUT SOME VC DEVELOPMENT
THIS AFTN.

SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA AND SOUTHWEST ARIZONA INCLUDING KIPL AND
KBLH...
PASSING FEW-SCT MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO STREAM
MOSTLY TO THE NORTH BEFORE SKIES CLEAR ALMOST COMPLETELY BY THE LATE
AFTN/EVENING HOURS. DRYING WEST TO SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT SHOULD KEEP
ANY STORM CHANCES EAST IN AZ THROUGHOUT THE DAY. HOWEVER...A
DECAYING STORM CIRCULATION CURRENTLY DRIFTING THROUGH WESTERN AZ
ALONG INTERSTATE 10 WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY MOVE TOWARDS THE CO
RIVER AND BLYTHE...GENERATING SOME POP-UP SHOWER AND THUNDER
ACTIVITY INTO THE EARLY AM. MEANWHILE...WINDS OVERALL TO FAVOR
SOUTHERLY HEADINGS FOR KBLH AND WESTERLY FOR KIPL.

AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDED TAFS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...
SOUTHWEST TO WEST FLOW THROUGH THE BULK OF THE ATMOSPHERIC
COLUMN...SFC TO UPPER LEVELS...WILL SWEEP THE MONSOON MOISTURE
SURFACE INTO FAR EASTERN AZ. STORM CHANCES WILL BE RELEGATED TO THE
HIGHER TERRAIN WITH MOSTLY QUIET CONDITIONS EXPECTED OVER THE LOWER
DESERT ELEVATIONS. MINIMUM RH VALUES WILL BEGIN TO SETTLE INTO THE
TEENS WHILE STILL MAKING MOSTLY MODEST TO FAIR OVERNIGHT RECOVERIES.
THE SLIGHTLY DRIER AIRMASS AND BUILDING UPPER RIDGE HEIGHTS WILL
LEND THEMSELVES TOWARD WARMER SFC CONDITIONS...AT OR ABOVE SEASONAL
NORMALS. WINDS WILL FOLLOW FAMILIAR WARM SEASON PATTERNS. BY MIDWEEK
A SUBTLE RETURN OF GULF MOISTURE MAY BOOST AREA HUMIDITIES AND BRING
SOME STORM CHANCES OUT OF THE MOUNTAINS AND BACK INTO THE LOWER AZ
DESERT LOCALES. DAYTIME HUMIDITIES WILL RETURN TO READINGS IN THE
UPPER TEENS TO LOW TWENTIES.

&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT CONDITIONS ACCORDING TO STANDARD
OPERATING PROCEDURES.

&&

.PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AZ...NONE.
CA...NONE.
&&

$$

VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/PHOENIX

DISCUSSION...KUHLMAN
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...DEWEY
AVIATION...NOLTE
FIRE WEATHER...NOLTE



000
FXUS65 KPSR 011643
AFDPSR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PHOENIX AZ
943 AM MST SAT AUG 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
STORM CHANCES WILL BE LESS TODAY WITH CHANCES LIMITED TO AREAS EAST
OF THE LOWER COLORADO RIVER VALLEY. FURTHER DRYING OCCURS NEXT WEEK
WITH STORM CHANCES CONFINED TO THE HIGHER TERRAIN EAST OF PHOENIX.
TEMPERATURES WILL HOVER NEAR NORMAL THROUGH NEXT WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
MID MORNING SATELLITE SHOWS A WELL DEFINED MCV CENTERED OVER LA PAZ
COUNTY ALMOST STATIONARY BUT...SLOWLY DRIFTING NORTHWARD. AREAWIDE
ANALYSIS SHOWS A FAIRLY WORKED OVER ATMOSPHERE WITH SURFACE
TEMPERATURES RUNNING AROUND 4-8 DEGREES COOLER THAN YESTERDAY AT THIS
TIME...BUT DEW POINTS ARE A BIT HIGHER. SOME LEFTOVER SHOWERS REMAIN
NEAR THE MCV OVER NORTHERN LA PAZ AND FAR NORTHEAST RIVERSIDE
COUNTIES...BUT THAT IS IT FOR ANY ONGOING ACTIVITY. WILL TAKE SOME
TIME TO RECHARGE THE ATMOSPHERE AFTER YESTERDAY`S STORMS...SO
THINKING TODAY WILL BE A SLOWER START...BUT STILL HAS POTENTIAL FOR
AN ACTIVE DAY.

WE DO HAVE BETTER DIFFLUENCE ALOFT THAN YESTERDAY WITH A WEAK UPPER
LEVEL JET MAX FORECAST TO MOVE NORTHWARD THROUGH ARIZONA LATER
TODAY...BUT INSTABILITY WILL BE LESS. SHOULD SEE SOME ADDITIONAL
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS NEAR THE MCV AREA THIS AFTERNOON...BUT IT
WILL BE FIGHTING DRIER AIR THAT WILL START TO WORK IN FROM THE
SOUTHWEST. GENERALLY CLEAR SKIES OVER SOUTHEAST AND SOUTH-CENTRAL
ARIZONA WILL HELP TO DESTABILIZE THE ATMOSPHERE BY EARLY AFTERNOON
TO FIRE OFF HIGHER TERRAIN STORMS. STORM DOWNDRAFTS AND OUTFLOWS WILL
BE LESS VIGOROUS TODAY DUE TO A LESS FAVORABLE ATMOSPHERIC
PROFILE...BUT CAN`T RULE OUT THE POSSIBILITY OF SOME LOCALIZED
STRONG WIND GUSTS.

&&

.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
PER LATEST RADAR AND SATELLITE IMAGERY...MOST OF THE SOUTH CENTRAL
DESERTS ARE QUIET ASIDE FROM SOME DEVELOPING STORMS ACROSS SOUTHERN
LA PAZ COUNTY. UNDER THE BULLSEYE OF MAX PRECIPITABLE WATER /1.7 -
1.8 INCH/ AND RIDING A SHORTWAVE INVERTED TROUGH FEATURE MOVING NORTH
THROUGH WESTERN ARIZONA...THERE SEEMS TO BE JUST ENOUGH INSTABILITY
TO GENERATE SOME THUNDERSTORMS EARLY THIS MORNING. CONCERNING THE
MESOSCALE CONVECTIVE MODELS...THE GFS FLAVORS HAVE INITIALIZED BETTER
THAN THE NAM...HINTING AT SOME EARLY AM ACTIVITY ACROSS WESTERN AZ
AND FAR SOUTHEASTERN CA. AS THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW CONTINUES TO SHIFT
MORE TO A SOUTHERLY DIRECTION...MID TO UPPER LEVEL WINDS SUPPORT A
DIFLUENT ZONE FROM PARKER TO SHOW LOW WHERE THE RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE TO THE EAST MOVES WEST AND AN EMBEDDED TROUGH FEATURE PUSHES
NORTH THROUGH SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA. TEMPERATURES WARMED A FEW DEGREES
HIGHER THAN ANTICIPATED FRIDAY...TIPPING A HAT TO THE CLEAR SKIES
WHICH IN TURN GAVE ENOUGH DAYTIME HEATING TO GENERATE CONVECTIVE
INITIATION EARLY IN THE DAY.

CLEARING SKIES FROM THE SOUTH WILL AGAIN PLAY INTO CONVECTIVE
INITIATION PROVIDING THE ATMOSPHERE IS NOT COMPLETELY MIXED THROUGH
AND OVERWORKED FROM LAST EVENING. LITTLE CHANGE IN ATMOSPHERIC
MOISTURE FROM AREA UPPER AIR SOUNDINGS COMPARING 12Z FRIDAY TO 00Z
SATURDAY. THE BIG FACTOR AGAIN TODAY WILL BE SUFFICIENT DAYTIME
HEATING. UTILIZING THE TROUGH TO THE WEST AND THE REMNANT INVERTED
TROUGH FEATURE SHOULD BE THE DYNAMIC LIFT NEEDED TO DRIVE STORM
DEVELOPMENT. THE HIGHER TERRAIN MOUNTAIN LOCATIONS WILL BE MORE
FAVORABLE FOR ACTIVITY.

LOOKING AHEAD SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY WILL BE MUCH QUIETER ON THE
STORM FRONT...AS SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW SETTLES IN WITH THE HIGH MOVING
FARTHER WEST. A DRYING AND SUBTLE WARMING TREND WILL TAKE PLACE
ACROSS THE DESERT SOUTHWEST...ALLOWING TEMPERATURES TO REACH JUST
ABOVE SEASONAL AVERAGE. MORE OF A MONSOON PATTERN WILL RETURN LATE
IN THE WEEK WITH A RETURN TO SOUTH-SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW AND BACK ABOVE
THE 90TH PERCENTILE IN TERMS OF PRECIPITABLE WATER READINGS.

&&

.AVIATION...
SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA INCLUDING KPHX...KIWA...AND KSDL...
AMPLE AREA OF DEBRIS CLOUDS LINGER ACROSS SOUTH-CENTRAL AZ...AND IN
PARTICULAR AT TIME OF THIS WRITING ALONG THE NORTHERN MARICOPA
COUNTY LINE. SOME SHOWERS HAVE POPPED-UP ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE
NORTH VALLEY...SO AM VCSH WERE INCLUDED IN THE KPHX AND KSDL TAFS.
SFC FLOW THIS AM MAINTAINING SOME WEAK WESTERLY
INFLUENCE...OTHERWISE WINDS WILL BE VRB UNTIL MIDDAY WHEN STRONGER
WEST FLOW AT THE SFC AND ALOFT TRANSITIONS INTO THE AREA. COULD SEE
ANOTHER ROUND OF POP-UP STORMS OVER PARTS OF THE DESERTS THIS
AFTERNOON...WITH INITIATION PROGGED ATTM AROUND 01/22Z TO 02/00Z.
SOUTHERLY AM CLOUD/STORM MOTION WILL TRANSITION TO WESTERLY BY THE
AFTERNOON...SENDING ANY PTNL STORMS THAT MAY FORM ACROSS W/SW
MARICOPA COUNTY TOWARDS THE PHX METRO. COVERAGE SHOULD BE MORE
LIMITED THAT WHAT WAS OBSERVED ON FRIDAY...BUT WITH STILL PLENTY OF
MOISTURE IN PLACE DURING THE DAY...CANNOT RULE OUT SOME VC DEVELOPMENT
THIS AFTN.

SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA AND SOUTHWEST ARIZONA INCLUDING KIPL AND
KBLH...
PASSING FEW-SCT MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO STREAM
MOSTLY TO THE NORTH BEFORE SKIES CLEAR ALMOST COMPLETELY BY THE LATE
AFTN/EVENING HOURS. DRYING WEST TO SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT SHOULD KEEP
ANY STORM CHANCES EAST IN AZ THROUGHOUT THE DAY. HOWEVER...A
DECAYING STORM CIRCULATION CURRENTLY DRIFTING THROUGH WESTERN AZ
ALONG INTERSTATE 10 WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY MOVE TOWARDS THE CO
RIVER AND BLYTHE...GENERATING SOME POP-UP SHOWER AND THUNDER
ACTIVITY INTO THE EARLY AM. MEANWHILE...WINDS OVERALL TO FAVOR
SOUTHERLY HEADINGS FOR KBLH AND WESTERLY FOR KIPL.

AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDED TAFS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...
SOUTHWEST TO WEST FLOW THROUGH THE BULK OF THE ATMOSPHERIC
COLUMN...SFC TO UPPER LEVELS...WILL SWEEP THE MONSOON MOISTURE
SURFACE INTO FAR EASTERN AZ. STORM CHANCES WILL BE RELEGATED TO THE
HIGHER TERRAIN WITH MOSTLY QUIET CONDITIONS EXPECTED OVER THE LOWER
DESERT ELEVATIONS. MINIMUM RH VALUES WILL BEGIN TO SETTLE INTO THE
TEENS WHILE STILL MAKING MOSTLY MODEST TO FAIR OVERNIGHT RECOVERIES.
THE SLIGHTLY DRIER AIRMASS AND BUILDING UPPER RIDGE HEIGHTS WILL
LEND THEMSELVES TOWARD WARMER SFC CONDITIONS...AT OR ABOVE SEASONAL
NORMALS. WINDS WILL FOLLOW FAMILIAR WARM SEASON PATTERNS. BY MIDWEEK
A SUBTLE RETURN OF GULF MOISTURE MAY BOOST AREA HUMIDITIES AND BRING
SOME STORM CHANCES OUT OF THE MOUNTAINS AND BACK INTO THE LOWER AZ
DESERT LOCALES. DAYTIME HUMIDITIES WILL RETURN TO READINGS IN THE
UPPER TEENS TO LOW TWENTIES.

&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT CONDITIONS ACCORDING TO STANDARD
OPERATING PROCEDURES.

&&

.PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AZ...NONE.
CA...NONE.
&&

$$

VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/PHOENIX

DISCUSSION...KUHLMAN
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...DEWEY
AVIATION...NOLTE
FIRE WEATHER...NOLTE



000
FXUS65 KPSR 011643
AFDPSR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PHOENIX AZ
943 AM MST SAT AUG 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
STORM CHANCES WILL BE LESS TODAY WITH CHANCES LIMITED TO AREAS EAST
OF THE LOWER COLORADO RIVER VALLEY. FURTHER DRYING OCCURS NEXT WEEK
WITH STORM CHANCES CONFINED TO THE HIGHER TERRAIN EAST OF PHOENIX.
TEMPERATURES WILL HOVER NEAR NORMAL THROUGH NEXT WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
MID MORNING SATELLITE SHOWS A WELL DEFINED MCV CENTERED OVER LA PAZ
COUNTY ALMOST STATIONARY BUT...SLOWLY DRIFTING NORTHWARD. AREAWIDE
ANALYSIS SHOWS A FAIRLY WORKED OVER ATMOSPHERE WITH SURFACE
TEMPERATURES RUNNING AROUND 4-8 DEGREES COOLER THAN YESTERDAY AT THIS
TIME...BUT DEW POINTS ARE A BIT HIGHER. SOME LEFTOVER SHOWERS REMAIN
NEAR THE MCV OVER NORTHERN LA PAZ AND FAR NORTHEAST RIVERSIDE
COUNTIES...BUT THAT IS IT FOR ANY ONGOING ACTIVITY. WILL TAKE SOME
TIME TO RECHARGE THE ATMOSPHERE AFTER YESTERDAY`S STORMS...SO
THINKING TODAY WILL BE A SLOWER START...BUT STILL HAS POTENTIAL FOR
AN ACTIVE DAY.

WE DO HAVE BETTER DIFFLUENCE ALOFT THAN YESTERDAY WITH A WEAK UPPER
LEVEL JET MAX FORECAST TO MOVE NORTHWARD THROUGH ARIZONA LATER
TODAY...BUT INSTABILITY WILL BE LESS. SHOULD SEE SOME ADDITIONAL
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS NEAR THE MCV AREA THIS AFTERNOON...BUT IT
WILL BE FIGHTING DRIER AIR THAT WILL START TO WORK IN FROM THE
SOUTHWEST. GENERALLY CLEAR SKIES OVER SOUTHEAST AND SOUTH-CENTRAL
ARIZONA WILL HELP TO DESTABILIZE THE ATMOSPHERE BY EARLY AFTERNOON
TO FIRE OFF HIGHER TERRAIN STORMS. STORM DOWNDRAFTS AND OUTFLOWS WILL
BE LESS VIGOROUS TODAY DUE TO A LESS FAVORABLE ATMOSPHERIC
PROFILE...BUT CAN`T RULE OUT THE POSSIBILITY OF SOME LOCALIZED
STRONG WIND GUSTS.

&&

.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
PER LATEST RADAR AND SATELLITE IMAGERY...MOST OF THE SOUTH CENTRAL
DESERTS ARE QUIET ASIDE FROM SOME DEVELOPING STORMS ACROSS SOUTHERN
LA PAZ COUNTY. UNDER THE BULLSEYE OF MAX PRECIPITABLE WATER /1.7 -
1.8 INCH/ AND RIDING A SHORTWAVE INVERTED TROUGH FEATURE MOVING NORTH
THROUGH WESTERN ARIZONA...THERE SEEMS TO BE JUST ENOUGH INSTABILITY
TO GENERATE SOME THUNDERSTORMS EARLY THIS MORNING. CONCERNING THE
MESOSCALE CONVECTIVE MODELS...THE GFS FLAVORS HAVE INITIALIZED BETTER
THAN THE NAM...HINTING AT SOME EARLY AM ACTIVITY ACROSS WESTERN AZ
AND FAR SOUTHEASTERN CA. AS THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW CONTINUES TO SHIFT
MORE TO A SOUTHERLY DIRECTION...MID TO UPPER LEVEL WINDS SUPPORT A
DIFLUENT ZONE FROM PARKER TO SHOW LOW WHERE THE RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE TO THE EAST MOVES WEST AND AN EMBEDDED TROUGH FEATURE PUSHES
NORTH THROUGH SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA. TEMPERATURES WARMED A FEW DEGREES
HIGHER THAN ANTICIPATED FRIDAY...TIPPING A HAT TO THE CLEAR SKIES
WHICH IN TURN GAVE ENOUGH DAYTIME HEATING TO GENERATE CONVECTIVE
INITIATION EARLY IN THE DAY.

CLEARING SKIES FROM THE SOUTH WILL AGAIN PLAY INTO CONVECTIVE
INITIATION PROVIDING THE ATMOSPHERE IS NOT COMPLETELY MIXED THROUGH
AND OVERWORKED FROM LAST EVENING. LITTLE CHANGE IN ATMOSPHERIC
MOISTURE FROM AREA UPPER AIR SOUNDINGS COMPARING 12Z FRIDAY TO 00Z
SATURDAY. THE BIG FACTOR AGAIN TODAY WILL BE SUFFICIENT DAYTIME
HEATING. UTILIZING THE TROUGH TO THE WEST AND THE REMNANT INVERTED
TROUGH FEATURE SHOULD BE THE DYNAMIC LIFT NEEDED TO DRIVE STORM
DEVELOPMENT. THE HIGHER TERRAIN MOUNTAIN LOCATIONS WILL BE MORE
FAVORABLE FOR ACTIVITY.

LOOKING AHEAD SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY WILL BE MUCH QUIETER ON THE
STORM FRONT...AS SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW SETTLES IN WITH THE HIGH MOVING
FARTHER WEST. A DRYING AND SUBTLE WARMING TREND WILL TAKE PLACE
ACROSS THE DESERT SOUTHWEST...ALLOWING TEMPERATURES TO REACH JUST
ABOVE SEASONAL AVERAGE. MORE OF A MONSOON PATTERN WILL RETURN LATE
IN THE WEEK WITH A RETURN TO SOUTH-SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW AND BACK ABOVE
THE 90TH PERCENTILE IN TERMS OF PRECIPITABLE WATER READINGS.

&&

.AVIATION...
SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA INCLUDING KPHX...KIWA...AND KSDL...
AMPLE AREA OF DEBRIS CLOUDS LINGER ACROSS SOUTH-CENTRAL AZ...AND IN
PARTICULAR AT TIME OF THIS WRITING ALONG THE NORTHERN MARICOPA
COUNTY LINE. SOME SHOWERS HAVE POPPED-UP ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE
NORTH VALLEY...SO AM VCSH WERE INCLUDED IN THE KPHX AND KSDL TAFS.
SFC FLOW THIS AM MAINTAINING SOME WEAK WESTERLY
INFLUENCE...OTHERWISE WINDS WILL BE VRB UNTIL MIDDAY WHEN STRONGER
WEST FLOW AT THE SFC AND ALOFT TRANSITIONS INTO THE AREA. COULD SEE
ANOTHER ROUND OF POP-UP STORMS OVER PARTS OF THE DESERTS THIS
AFTERNOON...WITH INITIATION PROGGED ATTM AROUND 01/22Z TO 02/00Z.
SOUTHERLY AM CLOUD/STORM MOTION WILL TRANSITION TO WESTERLY BY THE
AFTERNOON...SENDING ANY PTNL STORMS THAT MAY FORM ACROSS W/SW
MARICOPA COUNTY TOWARDS THE PHX METRO. COVERAGE SHOULD BE MORE
LIMITED THAT WHAT WAS OBSERVED ON FRIDAY...BUT WITH STILL PLENTY OF
MOISTURE IN PLACE DURING THE DAY...CANNOT RULE OUT SOME VC DEVELOPMENT
THIS AFTN.

SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA AND SOUTHWEST ARIZONA INCLUDING KIPL AND
KBLH...
PASSING FEW-SCT MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO STREAM
MOSTLY TO THE NORTH BEFORE SKIES CLEAR ALMOST COMPLETELY BY THE LATE
AFTN/EVENING HOURS. DRYING WEST TO SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT SHOULD KEEP
ANY STORM CHANCES EAST IN AZ THROUGHOUT THE DAY. HOWEVER...A
DECAYING STORM CIRCULATION CURRENTLY DRIFTING THROUGH WESTERN AZ
ALONG INTERSTATE 10 WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY MOVE TOWARDS THE CO
RIVER AND BLYTHE...GENERATING SOME POP-UP SHOWER AND THUNDER
ACTIVITY INTO THE EARLY AM. MEANWHILE...WINDS OVERALL TO FAVOR
SOUTHERLY HEADINGS FOR KBLH AND WESTERLY FOR KIPL.

AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDED TAFS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...
SOUTHWEST TO WEST FLOW THROUGH THE BULK OF THE ATMOSPHERIC
COLUMN...SFC TO UPPER LEVELS...WILL SWEEP THE MONSOON MOISTURE
SURFACE INTO FAR EASTERN AZ. STORM CHANCES WILL BE RELEGATED TO THE
HIGHER TERRAIN WITH MOSTLY QUIET CONDITIONS EXPECTED OVER THE LOWER
DESERT ELEVATIONS. MINIMUM RH VALUES WILL BEGIN TO SETTLE INTO THE
TEENS WHILE STILL MAKING MOSTLY MODEST TO FAIR OVERNIGHT RECOVERIES.
THE SLIGHTLY DRIER AIRMASS AND BUILDING UPPER RIDGE HEIGHTS WILL
LEND THEMSELVES TOWARD WARMER SFC CONDITIONS...AT OR ABOVE SEASONAL
NORMALS. WINDS WILL FOLLOW FAMILIAR WARM SEASON PATTERNS. BY MIDWEEK
A SUBTLE RETURN OF GULF MOISTURE MAY BOOST AREA HUMIDITIES AND BRING
SOME STORM CHANCES OUT OF THE MOUNTAINS AND BACK INTO THE LOWER AZ
DESERT LOCALES. DAYTIME HUMIDITIES WILL RETURN TO READINGS IN THE
UPPER TEENS TO LOW TWENTIES.

&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT CONDITIONS ACCORDING TO STANDARD
OPERATING PROCEDURES.

&&

.PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AZ...NONE.
CA...NONE.
&&

$$

VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/PHOENIX

DISCUSSION...KUHLMAN
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...DEWEY
AVIATION...NOLTE
FIRE WEATHER...NOLTE




000
FXUS65 KPSR 011643
AFDPSR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PHOENIX AZ
943 AM MST SAT AUG 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
STORM CHANCES WILL BE LESS TODAY WITH CHANCES LIMITED TO AREAS EAST
OF THE LOWER COLORADO RIVER VALLEY. FURTHER DRYING OCCURS NEXT WEEK
WITH STORM CHANCES CONFINED TO THE HIGHER TERRAIN EAST OF PHOENIX.
TEMPERATURES WILL HOVER NEAR NORMAL THROUGH NEXT WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
MID MORNING SATELLITE SHOWS A WELL DEFINED MCV CENTERED OVER LA PAZ
COUNTY ALMOST STATIONARY BUT...SLOWLY DRIFTING NORTHWARD. AREAWIDE
ANALYSIS SHOWS A FAIRLY WORKED OVER ATMOSPHERE WITH SURFACE
TEMPERATURES RUNNING AROUND 4-8 DEGREES COOLER THAN YESTERDAY AT THIS
TIME...BUT DEW POINTS ARE A BIT HIGHER. SOME LEFTOVER SHOWERS REMAIN
NEAR THE MCV OVER NORTHERN LA PAZ AND FAR NORTHEAST RIVERSIDE
COUNTIES...BUT THAT IS IT FOR ANY ONGOING ACTIVITY. WILL TAKE SOME
TIME TO RECHARGE THE ATMOSPHERE AFTER YESTERDAY`S STORMS...SO
THINKING TODAY WILL BE A SLOWER START...BUT STILL HAS POTENTIAL FOR
AN ACTIVE DAY.

WE DO HAVE BETTER DIFFLUENCE ALOFT THAN YESTERDAY WITH A WEAK UPPER
LEVEL JET MAX FORECAST TO MOVE NORTHWARD THROUGH ARIZONA LATER
TODAY...BUT INSTABILITY WILL BE LESS. SHOULD SEE SOME ADDITIONAL
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS NEAR THE MCV AREA THIS AFTERNOON...BUT IT
WILL BE FIGHTING DRIER AIR THAT WILL START TO WORK IN FROM THE
SOUTHWEST. GENERALLY CLEAR SKIES OVER SOUTHEAST AND SOUTH-CENTRAL
ARIZONA WILL HELP TO DESTABILIZE THE ATMOSPHERE BY EARLY AFTERNOON
TO FIRE OFF HIGHER TERRAIN STORMS. STORM DOWNDRAFTS AND OUTFLOWS WILL
BE LESS VIGOROUS TODAY DUE TO A LESS FAVORABLE ATMOSPHERIC
PROFILE...BUT CAN`T RULE OUT THE POSSIBILITY OF SOME LOCALIZED
STRONG WIND GUSTS.

&&

.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
PER LATEST RADAR AND SATELLITE IMAGERY...MOST OF THE SOUTH CENTRAL
DESERTS ARE QUIET ASIDE FROM SOME DEVELOPING STORMS ACROSS SOUTHERN
LA PAZ COUNTY. UNDER THE BULLSEYE OF MAX PRECIPITABLE WATER /1.7 -
1.8 INCH/ AND RIDING A SHORTWAVE INVERTED TROUGH FEATURE MOVING NORTH
THROUGH WESTERN ARIZONA...THERE SEEMS TO BE JUST ENOUGH INSTABILITY
TO GENERATE SOME THUNDERSTORMS EARLY THIS MORNING. CONCERNING THE
MESOSCALE CONVECTIVE MODELS...THE GFS FLAVORS HAVE INITIALIZED BETTER
THAN THE NAM...HINTING AT SOME EARLY AM ACTIVITY ACROSS WESTERN AZ
AND FAR SOUTHEASTERN CA. AS THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW CONTINUES TO SHIFT
MORE TO A SOUTHERLY DIRECTION...MID TO UPPER LEVEL WINDS SUPPORT A
DIFLUENT ZONE FROM PARKER TO SHOW LOW WHERE THE RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE TO THE EAST MOVES WEST AND AN EMBEDDED TROUGH FEATURE PUSHES
NORTH THROUGH SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA. TEMPERATURES WARMED A FEW DEGREES
HIGHER THAN ANTICIPATED FRIDAY...TIPPING A HAT TO THE CLEAR SKIES
WHICH IN TURN GAVE ENOUGH DAYTIME HEATING TO GENERATE CONVECTIVE
INITIATION EARLY IN THE DAY.

CLEARING SKIES FROM THE SOUTH WILL AGAIN PLAY INTO CONVECTIVE
INITIATION PROVIDING THE ATMOSPHERE IS NOT COMPLETELY MIXED THROUGH
AND OVERWORKED FROM LAST EVENING. LITTLE CHANGE IN ATMOSPHERIC
MOISTURE FROM AREA UPPER AIR SOUNDINGS COMPARING 12Z FRIDAY TO 00Z
SATURDAY. THE BIG FACTOR AGAIN TODAY WILL BE SUFFICIENT DAYTIME
HEATING. UTILIZING THE TROUGH TO THE WEST AND THE REMNANT INVERTED
TROUGH FEATURE SHOULD BE THE DYNAMIC LIFT NEEDED TO DRIVE STORM
DEVELOPMENT. THE HIGHER TERRAIN MOUNTAIN LOCATIONS WILL BE MORE
FAVORABLE FOR ACTIVITY.

LOOKING AHEAD SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY WILL BE MUCH QUIETER ON THE
STORM FRONT...AS SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW SETTLES IN WITH THE HIGH MOVING
FARTHER WEST. A DRYING AND SUBTLE WARMING TREND WILL TAKE PLACE
ACROSS THE DESERT SOUTHWEST...ALLOWING TEMPERATURES TO REACH JUST
ABOVE SEASONAL AVERAGE. MORE OF A MONSOON PATTERN WILL RETURN LATE
IN THE WEEK WITH A RETURN TO SOUTH-SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW AND BACK ABOVE
THE 90TH PERCENTILE IN TERMS OF PRECIPITABLE WATER READINGS.

&&

.AVIATION...
SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA INCLUDING KPHX...KIWA...AND KSDL...
AMPLE AREA OF DEBRIS CLOUDS LINGER ACROSS SOUTH-CENTRAL AZ...AND IN
PARTICULAR AT TIME OF THIS WRITING ALONG THE NORTHERN MARICOPA
COUNTY LINE. SOME SHOWERS HAVE POPPED-UP ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE
NORTH VALLEY...SO AM VCSH WERE INCLUDED IN THE KPHX AND KSDL TAFS.
SFC FLOW THIS AM MAINTAINING SOME WEAK WESTERLY
INFLUENCE...OTHERWISE WINDS WILL BE VRB UNTIL MIDDAY WHEN STRONGER
WEST FLOW AT THE SFC AND ALOFT TRANSITIONS INTO THE AREA. COULD SEE
ANOTHER ROUND OF POP-UP STORMS OVER PARTS OF THE DESERTS THIS
AFTERNOON...WITH INITIATION PROGGED ATTM AROUND 01/22Z TO 02/00Z.
SOUTHERLY AM CLOUD/STORM MOTION WILL TRANSITION TO WESTERLY BY THE
AFTERNOON...SENDING ANY PTNL STORMS THAT MAY FORM ACROSS W/SW
MARICOPA COUNTY TOWARDS THE PHX METRO. COVERAGE SHOULD BE MORE
LIMITED THAT WHAT WAS OBSERVED ON FRIDAY...BUT WITH STILL PLENTY OF
MOISTURE IN PLACE DURING THE DAY...CANNOT RULE OUT SOME VC DEVELOPMENT
THIS AFTN.

SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA AND SOUTHWEST ARIZONA INCLUDING KIPL AND
KBLH...
PASSING FEW-SCT MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO STREAM
MOSTLY TO THE NORTH BEFORE SKIES CLEAR ALMOST COMPLETELY BY THE LATE
AFTN/EVENING HOURS. DRYING WEST TO SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT SHOULD KEEP
ANY STORM CHANCES EAST IN AZ THROUGHOUT THE DAY. HOWEVER...A
DECAYING STORM CIRCULATION CURRENTLY DRIFTING THROUGH WESTERN AZ
ALONG INTERSTATE 10 WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY MOVE TOWARDS THE CO
RIVER AND BLYTHE...GENERATING SOME POP-UP SHOWER AND THUNDER
ACTIVITY INTO THE EARLY AM. MEANWHILE...WINDS OVERALL TO FAVOR
SOUTHERLY HEADINGS FOR KBLH AND WESTERLY FOR KIPL.

AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDED TAFS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...
SOUTHWEST TO WEST FLOW THROUGH THE BULK OF THE ATMOSPHERIC
COLUMN...SFC TO UPPER LEVELS...WILL SWEEP THE MONSOON MOISTURE
SURFACE INTO FAR EASTERN AZ. STORM CHANCES WILL BE RELEGATED TO THE
HIGHER TERRAIN WITH MOSTLY QUIET CONDITIONS EXPECTED OVER THE LOWER
DESERT ELEVATIONS. MINIMUM RH VALUES WILL BEGIN TO SETTLE INTO THE
TEENS WHILE STILL MAKING MOSTLY MODEST TO FAIR OVERNIGHT RECOVERIES.
THE SLIGHTLY DRIER AIRMASS AND BUILDING UPPER RIDGE HEIGHTS WILL
LEND THEMSELVES TOWARD WARMER SFC CONDITIONS...AT OR ABOVE SEASONAL
NORMALS. WINDS WILL FOLLOW FAMILIAR WARM SEASON PATTERNS. BY MIDWEEK
A SUBTLE RETURN OF GULF MOISTURE MAY BOOST AREA HUMIDITIES AND BRING
SOME STORM CHANCES OUT OF THE MOUNTAINS AND BACK INTO THE LOWER AZ
DESERT LOCALES. DAYTIME HUMIDITIES WILL RETURN TO READINGS IN THE
UPPER TEENS TO LOW TWENTIES.

&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT CONDITIONS ACCORDING TO STANDARD
OPERATING PROCEDURES.

&&

.PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AZ...NONE.
CA...NONE.
&&

$$

VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/PHOENIX

DISCUSSION...KUHLMAN
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...DEWEY
AVIATION...NOLTE
FIRE WEATHER...NOLTE



000
FXUS65 KPSR 011246
AFDPSR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PHOENIX AZ
545 AM MST SAT AUG 1 2015

.UPDATE...TO AVIATION DISCUSSION...

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
STORM CHANCES WILL BE LESS TODAY WITH CHANCES LIMITED TO AREAS EAST
OF THE LOWER COLORADO RIVER VALLEY. FURTHER DRYING OCCURS NEXT WEEK
WITH STORM CHANCES CONFINED TO THE HIGHER TERRAIN EAST OF PHOENIX.
TEMPERATURES WILL HOVER NEAR NORMAL THROUGH NEXT WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
PER LATEST RADAR AND SATELLITE IMAGERY...MOST OF THE SOUTH CENTRAL
DESERTS ARE QUIET ASIDE FROM SOME DEVELOPING STORMS ACROSS SOUTHERN
LA PAZ COUNTY. UNDER THE BULLSEYE OF MAX PRECIPITABLE WATER /1.7 -
1.8 INCH/ AND RIDING A SHORTWAVE INVERTED TROUGH FEATURE MOVING
NORTH THROUGH WESTERN ARIZONA...THERE SEEMS TO BE JUST ENOUGH
INSTABILITY TO GENERATE SOME THUNDERSTORMS EARLY THIS MORNING.
CONCERNING THE MESOSCALE CONVECTIVE MODELS...THE GFS FLAVORS HAVE
INITIALIZED BETTER THAN THE NAM...HINTING AT SOME EARLY AM ACTIVITY
ACROSS WESTERN AZ AND FAR SOUTHEASTERN CA. AS THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW
CONTINUES TO SHIFT MORE TO A SOUTHERLY DIRECTION...MID TO UPPER
LEVEL WINDS SUPPORT A DIFFLUENT ZONE FROM PARKER TO SHOW LOW WHERE
THE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE TO THE EAST MOVES WEST AND AN EMBEDDED
TROUGH FEATURE PUSHES NORTH THROUGH SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA.
TEMPERATURES WARMED A FEW DEGREES HIGHER THAN ANTICIPATED
FRIDAY...TIPPING A HAT TO THE CLEAR SKIES WHICH IN TURN GAVE ENOUGH
DAYTIME HEATING TO GENERATE CONVECTIVE INITIATION EARLY IN THE DAY.

CLEARING SKIES FROM THE SOUTH WILL AGAIN PLAY INTO CONVECTIVE
INITIATION PROVIDING THE ATMOSPHERE IS NOT COMPLETELY MIXED THROUGH
AND OVERWORKED FROM LAST EVENING. LITTLE CHANGE IN ATMOSPHERIC
MOISTURE FROM AREA UPPER AIR SOUNDINGS COMPARING 12Z FRIDAY TO 00Z
SATURDAY. THE BIG FACTOR AGAIN TODAY WILL BE SUFFICIENT DAYTIME
HEATING. UTILIZING THE TROUGH TO THE WEST AND THE REMNANT INVERTED
TROUGH FEATURE SHOULD BE THE DYNAMIC LIFT NEEDED TO DRIVE STORM
DEVELOPMENT. THE HIGHER TERRAIN MOUNTAIN LOCATIONS WILL BE MORE
FAVORABLE FOR ACTIVITY.

LOOKING AHEAD SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY WILL BE MUCH QUIETER ON THE
STORM FRONT...AS SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW SETTLES IN WITH THE HIGH MOVING
FARTHER WEST. A DRYING AND SUBTLE WARMING TREND WILL TAKE PLACE
ACROSS THE DESERT SOUTHWEST...ALLOWING TEMPERATURES TO REACH JUST
ABOVE SEASONAL AVERAGE. MORE OF A MONSOON PATTERN WILL RETURN LATE
IN THE WEEK WITH A RETURN TO SOUTH-SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW AND BACK ABOVE
THE 90TH PERCENTILE IN TERMS OF PRECIPITABLE WATER READINGS.

&&

.AVIATION...
SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA INCLUDING KPHX...KIWA...AND KSDL...
AMPLE AREA OF DEBRIS CLOUDS LINGER ACROSS SOUTH-CENTRAL AZ...AND IN
PARTICULAR AT TIME OF THIS WRITING ALONG THE NORTHERN MARICOPA
COUNTY LINE. SOME SHOWERS HAVE POPPED-UP ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE
NORTH VALLEY...SO AM VCSH WERE INCLUDED IN THE KPHX AND KSDL TAFS.
SFC FLOW THIS AM MAINTAINING SOME WEAK WESTERLY
INFLUENCE...OTHERWISE WINDS WILL BE VRB UNTIL MIDDAY WHEN STRONGER
WEST FLOW AT THE SFC AND ALOFT TRANSITIONS INTO THE AREA. COULD SEE
ANOTHER ROUND OF POP-UP STORMS OVER PARTS OF THE DESERTS THIS
AFTERNOON...WITH INITIATION PROGGED ATTM AROUND 01/22Z TO 02/00Z.
SOUTHERLY AM CLOUD/STORM MOTION WILL TRANSITION TO WESTERLY BY THE
AFTERNOON...SENDING ANY PTNL STORMS THAT MAY FORM ACROSS W/SW
MARICOPA COUNTY TOWARDS THE PHX METRO. COVERAGE SHOULD BE MORE
LIMITED THAT WHAT WAS OBSERVED ON FRIDAY...BUT WITH STILL PLENTY OF
MOISTURE IN PLACE DURING THE DAY...CANNOT RULE OUT SOME VC DEVELOPMENT
THIS AFTN.


SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA AND SOUTHWEST ARIZONA INCLUDING KIPL AND
KBLH...
PASSING FEW-SCT MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO STREAM
MOSTLY TO THE NORTH BEFORE SKIES CLEAR ALMOST COMPLETELY BY THE LATE
AFTN/EVENING HOURS. DRYING WEST TO SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT SHOULD KEEP
ANY STORM CHANCES EAST IN AZ THROUGHOUT THE DAY. HOWEVER...A
DECAYING STORM CIRCULATION CURRENTLY DRIFTING THROUGH WESTERN AZ
ALONG INTERSTATE 10 WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY MOVE TOWARDS THE CO
RIVER AND BLYTHE...GENERATING SOME POP-UP SHOWER AND THUNDER
ACTIVITY INTO THE EARLY AM. MEANWHILE...WINDS OVERALL TO FAVOR
SOUTHERLY HEADINGS FOR KBLH AND WESTERLY FOR KIPL.

AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDED TAFS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...
SOUTHWEST TO WEST FLOW THROUGH THE BULK OF THE ATMOSPHERIC
COLUMN...SFC TO UPPER LEVELS...WILL SWEEP THE MONSOON MOISTURE
SURFACE INTO FAR EASTERN AZ. STORM CHANCES WILL BE RELEGATED TO THE
HIGHER TERRAIN WITH MOSTLY QUIET CONDITIONS EXPECTED OVER THE LOWER
DESERT ELEVATIONS. MINIMUM RH VALUES WILL BEGIN TO SETTLE INTO THE
TEENS WHILE STILL MAKING MOSTLY MODEST TO FAIR OVERNIGHT RECOVERIES.
THE SLIGHTLY DRIER AIRMASS AND BUILDING UPPER RIDGE HEIGHTS WILL
LEND THEMSELVES TOWARD WARMER SFC CONDITIONS...AT OR ABOVE SEASONAL
NORMALS. WINDS WILL FOLLOW FAMILIAR WARM SEASON PATTERNS. BY MIDWEEK
A SUBTLE RETURN OF GULF MOISTURE MAY BOOST AREA HUMIDITIES AND BRING
SOME STORM CHANCES OUT OF THE MOUNTAINS AND BACK INTO THE LOWER AZ
DESERT LOCALES. DAYTIME HUMIDITIES WILL RETURN TO READINGS IN THE
UPPER TEENS TO LOW TWENTIES.

&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT CONDITIONS ACCORDING TO STANDARD
OPERATING PROCEDURES.

&&

.PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AZ...NONE.
CA...NONE.
&&

$$

VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/PHOENIX

DISCUSSION...DEWEY
AVIATION...NOLTE
FIRE WEATHER...NOLTE



000
FXUS65 KPSR 011246
AFDPSR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PHOENIX AZ
545 AM MST SAT AUG 1 2015

.UPDATE...TO AVIATION DISCUSSION...

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
STORM CHANCES WILL BE LESS TODAY WITH CHANCES LIMITED TO AREAS EAST
OF THE LOWER COLORADO RIVER VALLEY. FURTHER DRYING OCCURS NEXT WEEK
WITH STORM CHANCES CONFINED TO THE HIGHER TERRAIN EAST OF PHOENIX.
TEMPERATURES WILL HOVER NEAR NORMAL THROUGH NEXT WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
PER LATEST RADAR AND SATELLITE IMAGERY...MOST OF THE SOUTH CENTRAL
DESERTS ARE QUIET ASIDE FROM SOME DEVELOPING STORMS ACROSS SOUTHERN
LA PAZ COUNTY. UNDER THE BULLSEYE OF MAX PRECIPITABLE WATER /1.7 -
1.8 INCH/ AND RIDING A SHORTWAVE INVERTED TROUGH FEATURE MOVING
NORTH THROUGH WESTERN ARIZONA...THERE SEEMS TO BE JUST ENOUGH
INSTABILITY TO GENERATE SOME THUNDERSTORMS EARLY THIS MORNING.
CONCERNING THE MESOSCALE CONVECTIVE MODELS...THE GFS FLAVORS HAVE
INITIALIZED BETTER THAN THE NAM...HINTING AT SOME EARLY AM ACTIVITY
ACROSS WESTERN AZ AND FAR SOUTHEASTERN CA. AS THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW
CONTINUES TO SHIFT MORE TO A SOUTHERLY DIRECTION...MID TO UPPER
LEVEL WINDS SUPPORT A DIFFLUENT ZONE FROM PARKER TO SHOW LOW WHERE
THE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE TO THE EAST MOVES WEST AND AN EMBEDDED
TROUGH FEATURE PUSHES NORTH THROUGH SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA.
TEMPERATURES WARMED A FEW DEGREES HIGHER THAN ANTICIPATED
FRIDAY...TIPPING A HAT TO THE CLEAR SKIES WHICH IN TURN GAVE ENOUGH
DAYTIME HEATING TO GENERATE CONVECTIVE INITIATION EARLY IN THE DAY.

CLEARING SKIES FROM THE SOUTH WILL AGAIN PLAY INTO CONVECTIVE
INITIATION PROVIDING THE ATMOSPHERE IS NOT COMPLETELY MIXED THROUGH
AND OVERWORKED FROM LAST EVENING. LITTLE CHANGE IN ATMOSPHERIC
MOISTURE FROM AREA UPPER AIR SOUNDINGS COMPARING 12Z FRIDAY TO 00Z
SATURDAY. THE BIG FACTOR AGAIN TODAY WILL BE SUFFICIENT DAYTIME
HEATING. UTILIZING THE TROUGH TO THE WEST AND THE REMNANT INVERTED
TROUGH FEATURE SHOULD BE THE DYNAMIC LIFT NEEDED TO DRIVE STORM
DEVELOPMENT. THE HIGHER TERRAIN MOUNTAIN LOCATIONS WILL BE MORE
FAVORABLE FOR ACTIVITY.

LOOKING AHEAD SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY WILL BE MUCH QUIETER ON THE
STORM FRONT...AS SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW SETTLES IN WITH THE HIGH MOVING
FARTHER WEST. A DRYING AND SUBTLE WARMING TREND WILL TAKE PLACE
ACROSS THE DESERT SOUTHWEST...ALLOWING TEMPERATURES TO REACH JUST
ABOVE SEASONAL AVERAGE. MORE OF A MONSOON PATTERN WILL RETURN LATE
IN THE WEEK WITH A RETURN TO SOUTH-SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW AND BACK ABOVE
THE 90TH PERCENTILE IN TERMS OF PRECIPITABLE WATER READINGS.

&&

.AVIATION...
SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA INCLUDING KPHX...KIWA...AND KSDL...
AMPLE AREA OF DEBRIS CLOUDS LINGER ACROSS SOUTH-CENTRAL AZ...AND IN
PARTICULAR AT TIME OF THIS WRITING ALONG THE NORTHERN MARICOPA
COUNTY LINE. SOME SHOWERS HAVE POPPED-UP ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE
NORTH VALLEY...SO AM VCSH WERE INCLUDED IN THE KPHX AND KSDL TAFS.
SFC FLOW THIS AM MAINTAINING SOME WEAK WESTERLY
INFLUENCE...OTHERWISE WINDS WILL BE VRB UNTIL MIDDAY WHEN STRONGER
WEST FLOW AT THE SFC AND ALOFT TRANSITIONS INTO THE AREA. COULD SEE
ANOTHER ROUND OF POP-UP STORMS OVER PARTS OF THE DESERTS THIS
AFTERNOON...WITH INITIATION PROGGED ATTM AROUND 01/22Z TO 02/00Z.
SOUTHERLY AM CLOUD/STORM MOTION WILL TRANSITION TO WESTERLY BY THE
AFTERNOON...SENDING ANY PTNL STORMS THAT MAY FORM ACROSS W/SW
MARICOPA COUNTY TOWARDS THE PHX METRO. COVERAGE SHOULD BE MORE
LIMITED THAT WHAT WAS OBSERVED ON FRIDAY...BUT WITH STILL PLENTY OF
MOISTURE IN PLACE DURING THE DAY...CANNOT RULE OUT SOME VC DEVELOPMENT
THIS AFTN.


SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA AND SOUTHWEST ARIZONA INCLUDING KIPL AND
KBLH...
PASSING FEW-SCT MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO STREAM
MOSTLY TO THE NORTH BEFORE SKIES CLEAR ALMOST COMPLETELY BY THE LATE
AFTN/EVENING HOURS. DRYING WEST TO SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT SHOULD KEEP
ANY STORM CHANCES EAST IN AZ THROUGHOUT THE DAY. HOWEVER...A
DECAYING STORM CIRCULATION CURRENTLY DRIFTING THROUGH WESTERN AZ
ALONG INTERSTATE 10 WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY MOVE TOWARDS THE CO
RIVER AND BLYTHE...GENERATING SOME POP-UP SHOWER AND THUNDER
ACTIVITY INTO THE EARLY AM. MEANWHILE...WINDS OVERALL TO FAVOR
SOUTHERLY HEADINGS FOR KBLH AND WESTERLY FOR KIPL.

AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDED TAFS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...
SOUTHWEST TO WEST FLOW THROUGH THE BULK OF THE ATMOSPHERIC
COLUMN...SFC TO UPPER LEVELS...WILL SWEEP THE MONSOON MOISTURE
SURFACE INTO FAR EASTERN AZ. STORM CHANCES WILL BE RELEGATED TO THE
HIGHER TERRAIN WITH MOSTLY QUIET CONDITIONS EXPECTED OVER THE LOWER
DESERT ELEVATIONS. MINIMUM RH VALUES WILL BEGIN TO SETTLE INTO THE
TEENS WHILE STILL MAKING MOSTLY MODEST TO FAIR OVERNIGHT RECOVERIES.
THE SLIGHTLY DRIER AIRMASS AND BUILDING UPPER RIDGE HEIGHTS WILL
LEND THEMSELVES TOWARD WARMER SFC CONDITIONS...AT OR ABOVE SEASONAL
NORMALS. WINDS WILL FOLLOW FAMILIAR WARM SEASON PATTERNS. BY MIDWEEK
A SUBTLE RETURN OF GULF MOISTURE MAY BOOST AREA HUMIDITIES AND BRING
SOME STORM CHANCES OUT OF THE MOUNTAINS AND BACK INTO THE LOWER AZ
DESERT LOCALES. DAYTIME HUMIDITIES WILL RETURN TO READINGS IN THE
UPPER TEENS TO LOW TWENTIES.

&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT CONDITIONS ACCORDING TO STANDARD
OPERATING PROCEDURES.

&&

.PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AZ...NONE.
CA...NONE.
&&

$$

VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/PHOENIX

DISCUSSION...DEWEY
AVIATION...NOLTE
FIRE WEATHER...NOLTE




000
FXUS65 KPSR 011246
AFDPSR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PHOENIX AZ
545 AM MST SAT AUG 1 2015

.UPDATE...TO AVIATION DISCUSSION...

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
STORM CHANCES WILL BE LESS TODAY WITH CHANCES LIMITED TO AREAS EAST
OF THE LOWER COLORADO RIVER VALLEY. FURTHER DRYING OCCURS NEXT WEEK
WITH STORM CHANCES CONFINED TO THE HIGHER TERRAIN EAST OF PHOENIX.
TEMPERATURES WILL HOVER NEAR NORMAL THROUGH NEXT WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
PER LATEST RADAR AND SATELLITE IMAGERY...MOST OF THE SOUTH CENTRAL
DESERTS ARE QUIET ASIDE FROM SOME DEVELOPING STORMS ACROSS SOUTHERN
LA PAZ COUNTY. UNDER THE BULLSEYE OF MAX PRECIPITABLE WATER /1.7 -
1.8 INCH/ AND RIDING A SHORTWAVE INVERTED TROUGH FEATURE MOVING
NORTH THROUGH WESTERN ARIZONA...THERE SEEMS TO BE JUST ENOUGH
INSTABILITY TO GENERATE SOME THUNDERSTORMS EARLY THIS MORNING.
CONCERNING THE MESOSCALE CONVECTIVE MODELS...THE GFS FLAVORS HAVE
INITIALIZED BETTER THAN THE NAM...HINTING AT SOME EARLY AM ACTIVITY
ACROSS WESTERN AZ AND FAR SOUTHEASTERN CA. AS THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW
CONTINUES TO SHIFT MORE TO A SOUTHERLY DIRECTION...MID TO UPPER
LEVEL WINDS SUPPORT A DIFFLUENT ZONE FROM PARKER TO SHOW LOW WHERE
THE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE TO THE EAST MOVES WEST AND AN EMBEDDED
TROUGH FEATURE PUSHES NORTH THROUGH SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA.
TEMPERATURES WARMED A FEW DEGREES HIGHER THAN ANTICIPATED
FRIDAY...TIPPING A HAT TO THE CLEAR SKIES WHICH IN TURN GAVE ENOUGH
DAYTIME HEATING TO GENERATE CONVECTIVE INITIATION EARLY IN THE DAY.

CLEARING SKIES FROM THE SOUTH WILL AGAIN PLAY INTO CONVECTIVE
INITIATION PROVIDING THE ATMOSPHERE IS NOT COMPLETELY MIXED THROUGH
AND OVERWORKED FROM LAST EVENING. LITTLE CHANGE IN ATMOSPHERIC
MOISTURE FROM AREA UPPER AIR SOUNDINGS COMPARING 12Z FRIDAY TO 00Z
SATURDAY. THE BIG FACTOR AGAIN TODAY WILL BE SUFFICIENT DAYTIME
HEATING. UTILIZING THE TROUGH TO THE WEST AND THE REMNANT INVERTED
TROUGH FEATURE SHOULD BE THE DYNAMIC LIFT NEEDED TO DRIVE STORM
DEVELOPMENT. THE HIGHER TERRAIN MOUNTAIN LOCATIONS WILL BE MORE
FAVORABLE FOR ACTIVITY.

LOOKING AHEAD SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY WILL BE MUCH QUIETER ON THE
STORM FRONT...AS SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW SETTLES IN WITH THE HIGH MOVING
FARTHER WEST. A DRYING AND SUBTLE WARMING TREND WILL TAKE PLACE
ACROSS THE DESERT SOUTHWEST...ALLOWING TEMPERATURES TO REACH JUST
ABOVE SEASONAL AVERAGE. MORE OF A MONSOON PATTERN WILL RETURN LATE
IN THE WEEK WITH A RETURN TO SOUTH-SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW AND BACK ABOVE
THE 90TH PERCENTILE IN TERMS OF PRECIPITABLE WATER READINGS.

&&

.AVIATION...
SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA INCLUDING KPHX...KIWA...AND KSDL...
AMPLE AREA OF DEBRIS CLOUDS LINGER ACROSS SOUTH-CENTRAL AZ...AND IN
PARTICULAR AT TIME OF THIS WRITING ALONG THE NORTHERN MARICOPA
COUNTY LINE. SOME SHOWERS HAVE POPPED-UP ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE
NORTH VALLEY...SO AM VCSH WERE INCLUDED IN THE KPHX AND KSDL TAFS.
SFC FLOW THIS AM MAINTAINING SOME WEAK WESTERLY
INFLUENCE...OTHERWISE WINDS WILL BE VRB UNTIL MIDDAY WHEN STRONGER
WEST FLOW AT THE SFC AND ALOFT TRANSITIONS INTO THE AREA. COULD SEE
ANOTHER ROUND OF POP-UP STORMS OVER PARTS OF THE DESERTS THIS
AFTERNOON...WITH INITIATION PROGGED ATTM AROUND 01/22Z TO 02/00Z.
SOUTHERLY AM CLOUD/STORM MOTION WILL TRANSITION TO WESTERLY BY THE
AFTERNOON...SENDING ANY PTNL STORMS THAT MAY FORM ACROSS W/SW
MARICOPA COUNTY TOWARDS THE PHX METRO. COVERAGE SHOULD BE MORE
LIMITED THAT WHAT WAS OBSERVED ON FRIDAY...BUT WITH STILL PLENTY OF
MOISTURE IN PLACE DURING THE DAY...CANNOT RULE OUT SOME VC DEVELOPMENT
THIS AFTN.


SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA AND SOUTHWEST ARIZONA INCLUDING KIPL AND
KBLH...
PASSING FEW-SCT MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO STREAM
MOSTLY TO THE NORTH BEFORE SKIES CLEAR ALMOST COMPLETELY BY THE LATE
AFTN/EVENING HOURS. DRYING WEST TO SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT SHOULD KEEP
ANY STORM CHANCES EAST IN AZ THROUGHOUT THE DAY. HOWEVER...A
DECAYING STORM CIRCULATION CURRENTLY DRIFTING THROUGH WESTERN AZ
ALONG INTERSTATE 10 WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY MOVE TOWARDS THE CO
RIVER AND BLYTHE...GENERATING SOME POP-UP SHOWER AND THUNDER
ACTIVITY INTO THE EARLY AM. MEANWHILE...WINDS OVERALL TO FAVOR
SOUTHERLY HEADINGS FOR KBLH AND WESTERLY FOR KIPL.

AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDED TAFS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...
SOUTHWEST TO WEST FLOW THROUGH THE BULK OF THE ATMOSPHERIC
COLUMN...SFC TO UPPER LEVELS...WILL SWEEP THE MONSOON MOISTURE
SURFACE INTO FAR EASTERN AZ. STORM CHANCES WILL BE RELEGATED TO THE
HIGHER TERRAIN WITH MOSTLY QUIET CONDITIONS EXPECTED OVER THE LOWER
DESERT ELEVATIONS. MINIMUM RH VALUES WILL BEGIN TO SETTLE INTO THE
TEENS WHILE STILL MAKING MOSTLY MODEST TO FAIR OVERNIGHT RECOVERIES.
THE SLIGHTLY DRIER AIRMASS AND BUILDING UPPER RIDGE HEIGHTS WILL
LEND THEMSELVES TOWARD WARMER SFC CONDITIONS...AT OR ABOVE SEASONAL
NORMALS. WINDS WILL FOLLOW FAMILIAR WARM SEASON PATTERNS. BY MIDWEEK
A SUBTLE RETURN OF GULF MOISTURE MAY BOOST AREA HUMIDITIES AND BRING
SOME STORM CHANCES OUT OF THE MOUNTAINS AND BACK INTO THE LOWER AZ
DESERT LOCALES. DAYTIME HUMIDITIES WILL RETURN TO READINGS IN THE
UPPER TEENS TO LOW TWENTIES.

&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT CONDITIONS ACCORDING TO STANDARD
OPERATING PROCEDURES.

&&

.PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AZ...NONE.
CA...NONE.
&&

$$

VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/PHOENIX

DISCUSSION...DEWEY
AVIATION...NOLTE
FIRE WEATHER...NOLTE




000
FXUS65 KPSR 011246
AFDPSR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PHOENIX AZ
545 AM MST SAT AUG 1 2015

.UPDATE...TO AVIATION DISCUSSION...

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
STORM CHANCES WILL BE LESS TODAY WITH CHANCES LIMITED TO AREAS EAST
OF THE LOWER COLORADO RIVER VALLEY. FURTHER DRYING OCCURS NEXT WEEK
WITH STORM CHANCES CONFINED TO THE HIGHER TERRAIN EAST OF PHOENIX.
TEMPERATURES WILL HOVER NEAR NORMAL THROUGH NEXT WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
PER LATEST RADAR AND SATELLITE IMAGERY...MOST OF THE SOUTH CENTRAL
DESERTS ARE QUIET ASIDE FROM SOME DEVELOPING STORMS ACROSS SOUTHERN
LA PAZ COUNTY. UNDER THE BULLSEYE OF MAX PRECIPITABLE WATER /1.7 -
1.8 INCH/ AND RIDING A SHORTWAVE INVERTED TROUGH FEATURE MOVING
NORTH THROUGH WESTERN ARIZONA...THERE SEEMS TO BE JUST ENOUGH
INSTABILITY TO GENERATE SOME THUNDERSTORMS EARLY THIS MORNING.
CONCERNING THE MESOSCALE CONVECTIVE MODELS...THE GFS FLAVORS HAVE
INITIALIZED BETTER THAN THE NAM...HINTING AT SOME EARLY AM ACTIVITY
ACROSS WESTERN AZ AND FAR SOUTHEASTERN CA. AS THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW
CONTINUES TO SHIFT MORE TO A SOUTHERLY DIRECTION...MID TO UPPER
LEVEL WINDS SUPPORT A DIFFLUENT ZONE FROM PARKER TO SHOW LOW WHERE
THE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE TO THE EAST MOVES WEST AND AN EMBEDDED
TROUGH FEATURE PUSHES NORTH THROUGH SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA.
TEMPERATURES WARMED A FEW DEGREES HIGHER THAN ANTICIPATED
FRIDAY...TIPPING A HAT TO THE CLEAR SKIES WHICH IN TURN GAVE ENOUGH
DAYTIME HEATING TO GENERATE CONVECTIVE INITIATION EARLY IN THE DAY.

CLEARING SKIES FROM THE SOUTH WILL AGAIN PLAY INTO CONVECTIVE
INITIATION PROVIDING THE ATMOSPHERE IS NOT COMPLETELY MIXED THROUGH
AND OVERWORKED FROM LAST EVENING. LITTLE CHANGE IN ATMOSPHERIC
MOISTURE FROM AREA UPPER AIR SOUNDINGS COMPARING 12Z FRIDAY TO 00Z
SATURDAY. THE BIG FACTOR AGAIN TODAY WILL BE SUFFICIENT DAYTIME
HEATING. UTILIZING THE TROUGH TO THE WEST AND THE REMNANT INVERTED
TROUGH FEATURE SHOULD BE THE DYNAMIC LIFT NEEDED TO DRIVE STORM
DEVELOPMENT. THE HIGHER TERRAIN MOUNTAIN LOCATIONS WILL BE MORE
FAVORABLE FOR ACTIVITY.

LOOKING AHEAD SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY WILL BE MUCH QUIETER ON THE
STORM FRONT...AS SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW SETTLES IN WITH THE HIGH MOVING
FARTHER WEST. A DRYING AND SUBTLE WARMING TREND WILL TAKE PLACE
ACROSS THE DESERT SOUTHWEST...ALLOWING TEMPERATURES TO REACH JUST
ABOVE SEASONAL AVERAGE. MORE OF A MONSOON PATTERN WILL RETURN LATE
IN THE WEEK WITH A RETURN TO SOUTH-SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW AND BACK ABOVE
THE 90TH PERCENTILE IN TERMS OF PRECIPITABLE WATER READINGS.

&&

.AVIATION...
SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA INCLUDING KPHX...KIWA...AND KSDL...
AMPLE AREA OF DEBRIS CLOUDS LINGER ACROSS SOUTH-CENTRAL AZ...AND IN
PARTICULAR AT TIME OF THIS WRITING ALONG THE NORTHERN MARICOPA
COUNTY LINE. SOME SHOWERS HAVE POPPED-UP ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE
NORTH VALLEY...SO AM VCSH WERE INCLUDED IN THE KPHX AND KSDL TAFS.
SFC FLOW THIS AM MAINTAINING SOME WEAK WESTERLY
INFLUENCE...OTHERWISE WINDS WILL BE VRB UNTIL MIDDAY WHEN STRONGER
WEST FLOW AT THE SFC AND ALOFT TRANSITIONS INTO THE AREA. COULD SEE
ANOTHER ROUND OF POP-UP STORMS OVER PARTS OF THE DESERTS THIS
AFTERNOON...WITH INITIATION PROGGED ATTM AROUND 01/22Z TO 02/00Z.
SOUTHERLY AM CLOUD/STORM MOTION WILL TRANSITION TO WESTERLY BY THE
AFTERNOON...SENDING ANY PTNL STORMS THAT MAY FORM ACROSS W/SW
MARICOPA COUNTY TOWARDS THE PHX METRO. COVERAGE SHOULD BE MORE
LIMITED THAT WHAT WAS OBSERVED ON FRIDAY...BUT WITH STILL PLENTY OF
MOISTURE IN PLACE DURING THE DAY...CANNOT RULE OUT SOME VC DEVELOPMENT
THIS AFTN.


SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA AND SOUTHWEST ARIZONA INCLUDING KIPL AND
KBLH...
PASSING FEW-SCT MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO STREAM
MOSTLY TO THE NORTH BEFORE SKIES CLEAR ALMOST COMPLETELY BY THE LATE
AFTN/EVENING HOURS. DRYING WEST TO SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT SHOULD KEEP
ANY STORM CHANCES EAST IN AZ THROUGHOUT THE DAY. HOWEVER...A
DECAYING STORM CIRCULATION CURRENTLY DRIFTING THROUGH WESTERN AZ
ALONG INTERSTATE 10 WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY MOVE TOWARDS THE CO
RIVER AND BLYTHE...GENERATING SOME POP-UP SHOWER AND THUNDER
ACTIVITY INTO THE EARLY AM. MEANWHILE...WINDS OVERALL TO FAVOR
SOUTHERLY HEADINGS FOR KBLH AND WESTERLY FOR KIPL.

AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDED TAFS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...
SOUTHWEST TO WEST FLOW THROUGH THE BULK OF THE ATMOSPHERIC
COLUMN...SFC TO UPPER LEVELS...WILL SWEEP THE MONSOON MOISTURE
SURFACE INTO FAR EASTERN AZ. STORM CHANCES WILL BE RELEGATED TO THE
HIGHER TERRAIN WITH MOSTLY QUIET CONDITIONS EXPECTED OVER THE LOWER
DESERT ELEVATIONS. MINIMUM RH VALUES WILL BEGIN TO SETTLE INTO THE
TEENS WHILE STILL MAKING MOSTLY MODEST TO FAIR OVERNIGHT RECOVERIES.
THE SLIGHTLY DRIER AIRMASS AND BUILDING UPPER RIDGE HEIGHTS WILL
LEND THEMSELVES TOWARD WARMER SFC CONDITIONS...AT OR ABOVE SEASONAL
NORMALS. WINDS WILL FOLLOW FAMILIAR WARM SEASON PATTERNS. BY MIDWEEK
A SUBTLE RETURN OF GULF MOISTURE MAY BOOST AREA HUMIDITIES AND BRING
SOME STORM CHANCES OUT OF THE MOUNTAINS AND BACK INTO THE LOWER AZ
DESERT LOCALES. DAYTIME HUMIDITIES WILL RETURN TO READINGS IN THE
UPPER TEENS TO LOW TWENTIES.

&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT CONDITIONS ACCORDING TO STANDARD
OPERATING PROCEDURES.

&&

.PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AZ...NONE.
CA...NONE.
&&

$$

VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/PHOENIX

DISCUSSION...DEWEY
AVIATION...NOLTE
FIRE WEATHER...NOLTE



000
FXUS65 KPSR 011209
AFDPSR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PHOENIX AZ
510 AM MST SAT AUG 1 2015

.UPDATE...TO AVIATION AND FIRE WEATHER DISCUSSIONS...

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
STORM CHANCES WILL BE LESS TODAY WITH CHANCES LIMITED TO AREAS EAST
OF THE LOWER COLORADO RIVER VALLEY. FURTHER DRYING OCCURS NEXT WEEK
WITH STORM CHANCES CONFINED TO THE HIGHER TERRAIN EAST OF PHOENIX.
TEMPERATURES WILL HOVER NEAR NORMAL THROUGH NEXT WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
PER LATEST RADAR AND SATELLITE IMAGERY...MOST OF THE SOUTH CENTRAL
DESERTS ARE QUIET ASIDE FROM SOME DEVELOPING STORMS ACROSS SOUTHERN
LA PAZ COUNTY. UNDER THE BULLSEYE OF MAX PRECIPITABLE WATER /1.7 -
1.8 INCH/ AND RIDING A SHORTWAVE INVERTED TROUGH FEATURE MOVING
NORTH THROUGH WESTERN ARIZONA...THERE SEEMS TO BE JUST ENOUGH
INSTABILITY TO GENERATE SOME THUNDERSTORMS EARLY THIS MORNING.
CONCERNING THE MESOSCALE CONVECTIVE MODELS...THE GFS FLAVORS HAVE
INITIALIZED BETTER THAN THE NAM...HINTING AT SOME EARLY AM ACTIVITY
ACROSS WESTERN AZ AND FAR SOUTHEASTERN CA. AS THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW
CONTINUES TO SHIFT MORE TO A SOUTHERLY DIRECTION...MID TO UPPER
LEVEL WINDS SUPPORT A DIFFLUENT ZONE FROM PARKER TO SHOW LOW WHERE
THE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE TO THE EAST MOVES WEST AND AN EMBEDDED
TROUGH FEATURE PUSHES NORTH THROUGH SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA.
TEMPERATURES WARMED A FEW DEGREES HIGHER THAN ANTICIPATED
FRIDAY...TIPPING A HAT TO THE CLEAR SKIES WHICH IN TURN GAVE ENOUGH
DAYTIME HEATING TO GENERATE CONVECTIVE INITIATION EARLY IN THE DAY.

CLEARING SKIES FROM THE SOUTH WILL AGAIN PLAY INTO CONVECTIVE
INITIATION PROVIDING THE ATMOSPHERE IS NOT COMPLETELY MIXED THROUGH
AND OVERWORKED FROM LAST EVENING. LITTLE CHANGE IN ATMOSPHERIC
MOISTURE FROM AREA UPPER AIR SOUNDINGS COMPARING 12Z FRIDAY TO 00Z
SATURDAY. THE BIG FACTOR AGAIN TODAY WILL BE SUFFICIENT DAYTIME
HEATING. UTILIZING THE TROUGH TO THE WEST AND THE REMNANT INVERTED
TROUGH FEATURE SHOULD BE THE DYNAMIC LIFT NEEDED TO DRIVE STORM
DEVELOPMENT. THE HIGHER TERRAIN MOUNTAIN LOCATIONS WILL BE MORE
FAVORABLE FOR ACTIVITY.

LOOKING AHEAD SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY WILL BE MUCH QUIETER ON THE
STORM FRONT...AS SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW SETTLES IN WITH THE HIGH MOVING
FARTHER WEST. A DRYING AND SUBTLE WARMING TREND WILL TAKE PLACE
ACROSS THE DESERT SOUTHWEST...ALLOWING TEMPERATURES TO REACH JUST
ABOVE SEASONAL AVERAGE. MORE OF A MONSOON PATTERN WILL RETURN LATE
IN THE WEEK WITH A RETURN TO SOUTH-SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW AND BACK ABOVE
THE 90TH PERCENTILE IN TERMS OF PRECIPITABLE WATER READINGS.

&&

.AVIATION...
SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA INCLUDING KPHX...KIWA...AND KSDL...
AMPLE AREA OF DEBRIS CLOUDS LINGER ACROSS SOUTH-CENTRAL AZ...AND IN
PARTICULAR AT TIME OF THIS WRITING ALONG THE NORTHERN MARICOPA
COUNTY LINE. SOME SHOWERS HAVE POPPED-UP ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE
NORTH VALLEY...SO AM VCSH WERE INCLUDED IN THE KPHX AND KSDL TAFS.
SFC FLOW THIS AM MAINTAINING SOME WEAK WESTERLY
INFLUENCE...OTHERWISE WINDS WILL BE VRB UNTIL MIDDAY WHEN STRONGER
WEST FLOW AT THE SFC AND ALOFT TRANSITIONS INTO THE AREA. COULD SEE
ANOTHER ROUND OF POP-UP STORMS OVER PARTS OF THE DESERTS THIS
AFTERNOON...WITH INITIATION PROGGED ATTM AROUND 01/22Z TO 02/00Z.
SOUTHERLY AM CLOUD/STORM MOTION WILL TRANSITION TO WESTERLY BY THE
AFTERNOON...SENDING ANY PTNL STORMS THAT MAY FORM ACROSS W/SW
MARICOPA COUNTY TOWARDS THE PHX METRO. COVERAGE SHOULD BE MORE
LIMITED THAT WHAT WAS OBSERVED ON FRIDAY...BUT WITH STILL PLENTY OF
MOISTURE IN PLACE DURING THE DAY...CANNOT RULE OUT SOME VC DEVELOPMENT
THIS AFTN.


SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA AND SOUTHWEST ARIZONA INCLUDING KIPL AND
KBLH...
PASSING FEW-SCT MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO STREAM
MOSTLY TO THE NORTH BEFORE SKIES CLEAR ALMOST COMPLETELY BY THE LATE
AFTN/EVENING HOURS. DRYING WEST TO SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT SHOULD KEEP
ANY STORM CHANCES EAST IN AZ THROUGHOUT THE DAY. WINDS OVERALL TO
FAVOR SOUTHERLY HEADINGS FOR KBLH AND WESTERLY FOR KIPL.

AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDED TAFS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...
SOUTHWEST TO WEST FLOW THROUGH THE BULK OF THE ATMOSPHERIC
COLUMN...SFC TO UPPER LEVELS...WILL SWEEP THE MONSOON MOISTURE
SURFACE INTO FAR EASTERN AZ. STORM CHANCES WILL BE RELEGATED TO THE
HIGHER TERRAIN WITH MOSTLY QUIET CONDITIONS EXPECTED OVER THE LOWER
DESERT ELEVATIONS. MINIMUM RH VALUES WILL BEGIN TO SETTLE INTO THE
TEENS WHILE STILL MAKING MOSTLY MODEST TO FAIR OVERNIGHT RECOVERIES.
THE SLIGHTLY DRIER AIRMASS AND BUILDING UPPER RIDGE HEIGHTS WILL
LEND THEMSELVES TOWARD WARMER SFC CONDITIONS...AT OR ABOVE SEASONAL
NORMALS. WINDS WILL FOLLOW FAMILIAR WARM SEASON PATTERNS. BY MIDWEEK
A SUBTLE RETURN OF GULF MOISTURE MAY BOOST AREA HUMIDITIES AND BRING
SOME STORM CHANCES OUT OF THE MOUNTAINS AND BACK INTO THE LOWER AZ
DESERT LOCALES. DAYTIME HUMIDITIES WILL RETURN TO READINGS IN THE
UPPER TEENS TO LOW TWENTIES.

&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT CONDITIONS ACCORDING TO STANDARD
OPERATING PROCEDURES.

&&

.PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AZ...NONE.
CA...NONE.
&&

$$

VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/PHOENIX

DISCUSSION...DEWEY
AVIATION...NOLTE
FIRE WEATHER...NOLTE




000
FXUS65 KPSR 011209
AFDPSR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PHOENIX AZ
510 AM MST SAT AUG 1 2015

.UPDATE...TO AVIATION AND FIRE WEATHER DISCUSSIONS...

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
STORM CHANCES WILL BE LESS TODAY WITH CHANCES LIMITED TO AREAS EAST
OF THE LOWER COLORADO RIVER VALLEY. FURTHER DRYING OCCURS NEXT WEEK
WITH STORM CHANCES CONFINED TO THE HIGHER TERRAIN EAST OF PHOENIX.
TEMPERATURES WILL HOVER NEAR NORMAL THROUGH NEXT WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
PER LATEST RADAR AND SATELLITE IMAGERY...MOST OF THE SOUTH CENTRAL
DESERTS ARE QUIET ASIDE FROM SOME DEVELOPING STORMS ACROSS SOUTHERN
LA PAZ COUNTY. UNDER THE BULLSEYE OF MAX PRECIPITABLE WATER /1.7 -
1.8 INCH/ AND RIDING A SHORTWAVE INVERTED TROUGH FEATURE MOVING
NORTH THROUGH WESTERN ARIZONA...THERE SEEMS TO BE JUST ENOUGH
INSTABILITY TO GENERATE SOME THUNDERSTORMS EARLY THIS MORNING.
CONCERNING THE MESOSCALE CONVECTIVE MODELS...THE GFS FLAVORS HAVE
INITIALIZED BETTER THAN THE NAM...HINTING AT SOME EARLY AM ACTIVITY
ACROSS WESTERN AZ AND FAR SOUTHEASTERN CA. AS THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW
CONTINUES TO SHIFT MORE TO A SOUTHERLY DIRECTION...MID TO UPPER
LEVEL WINDS SUPPORT A DIFFLUENT ZONE FROM PARKER TO SHOW LOW WHERE
THE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE TO THE EAST MOVES WEST AND AN EMBEDDED
TROUGH FEATURE PUSHES NORTH THROUGH SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA.
TEMPERATURES WARMED A FEW DEGREES HIGHER THAN ANTICIPATED
FRIDAY...TIPPING A HAT TO THE CLEAR SKIES WHICH IN TURN GAVE ENOUGH
DAYTIME HEATING TO GENERATE CONVECTIVE INITIATION EARLY IN THE DAY.

CLEARING SKIES FROM THE SOUTH WILL AGAIN PLAY INTO CONVECTIVE
INITIATION PROVIDING THE ATMOSPHERE IS NOT COMPLETELY MIXED THROUGH
AND OVERWORKED FROM LAST EVENING. LITTLE CHANGE IN ATMOSPHERIC
MOISTURE FROM AREA UPPER AIR SOUNDINGS COMPARING 12Z FRIDAY TO 00Z
SATURDAY. THE BIG FACTOR AGAIN TODAY WILL BE SUFFICIENT DAYTIME
HEATING. UTILIZING THE TROUGH TO THE WEST AND THE REMNANT INVERTED
TROUGH FEATURE SHOULD BE THE DYNAMIC LIFT NEEDED TO DRIVE STORM
DEVELOPMENT. THE HIGHER TERRAIN MOUNTAIN LOCATIONS WILL BE MORE
FAVORABLE FOR ACTIVITY.

LOOKING AHEAD SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY WILL BE MUCH QUIETER ON THE
STORM FRONT...AS SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW SETTLES IN WITH THE HIGH MOVING
FARTHER WEST. A DRYING AND SUBTLE WARMING TREND WILL TAKE PLACE
ACROSS THE DESERT SOUTHWEST...ALLOWING TEMPERATURES TO REACH JUST
ABOVE SEASONAL AVERAGE. MORE OF A MONSOON PATTERN WILL RETURN LATE
IN THE WEEK WITH A RETURN TO SOUTH-SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW AND BACK ABOVE
THE 90TH PERCENTILE IN TERMS OF PRECIPITABLE WATER READINGS.

&&

.AVIATION...
SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA INCLUDING KPHX...KIWA...AND KSDL...
AMPLE AREA OF DEBRIS CLOUDS LINGER ACROSS SOUTH-CENTRAL AZ...AND IN
PARTICULAR AT TIME OF THIS WRITING ALONG THE NORTHERN MARICOPA
COUNTY LINE. SOME SHOWERS HAVE POPPED-UP ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE
NORTH VALLEY...SO AM VCSH WERE INCLUDED IN THE KPHX AND KSDL TAFS.
SFC FLOW THIS AM MAINTAINING SOME WEAK WESTERLY
INFLUENCE...OTHERWISE WINDS WILL BE VRB UNTIL MIDDAY WHEN STRONGER
WEST FLOW AT THE SFC AND ALOFT TRANSITIONS INTO THE AREA. COULD SEE
ANOTHER ROUND OF POP-UP STORMS OVER PARTS OF THE DESERTS THIS
AFTERNOON...WITH INITIATION PROGGED ATTM AROUND 01/22Z TO 02/00Z.
SOUTHERLY AM CLOUD/STORM MOTION WILL TRANSITION TO WESTERLY BY THE
AFTERNOON...SENDING ANY PTNL STORMS THAT MAY FORM ACROSS W/SW
MARICOPA COUNTY TOWARDS THE PHX METRO. COVERAGE SHOULD BE MORE
LIMITED THAT WHAT WAS OBSERVED ON FRIDAY...BUT WITH STILL PLENTY OF
MOISTURE IN PLACE DURING THE DAY...CANNOT RULE OUT SOME VC DEVELOPMENT
THIS AFTN.


SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA AND SOUTHWEST ARIZONA INCLUDING KIPL AND
KBLH...
PASSING FEW-SCT MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO STREAM
MOSTLY TO THE NORTH BEFORE SKIES CLEAR ALMOST COMPLETELY BY THE LATE
AFTN/EVENING HOURS. DRYING WEST TO SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT SHOULD KEEP
ANY STORM CHANCES EAST IN AZ THROUGHOUT THE DAY. WINDS OVERALL TO
FAVOR SOUTHERLY HEADINGS FOR KBLH AND WESTERLY FOR KIPL.

AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDED TAFS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...
SOUTHWEST TO WEST FLOW THROUGH THE BULK OF THE ATMOSPHERIC
COLUMN...SFC TO UPPER LEVELS...WILL SWEEP THE MONSOON MOISTURE
SURFACE INTO FAR EASTERN AZ. STORM CHANCES WILL BE RELEGATED TO THE
HIGHER TERRAIN WITH MOSTLY QUIET CONDITIONS EXPECTED OVER THE LOWER
DESERT ELEVATIONS. MINIMUM RH VALUES WILL BEGIN TO SETTLE INTO THE
TEENS WHILE STILL MAKING MOSTLY MODEST TO FAIR OVERNIGHT RECOVERIES.
THE SLIGHTLY DRIER AIRMASS AND BUILDING UPPER RIDGE HEIGHTS WILL
LEND THEMSELVES TOWARD WARMER SFC CONDITIONS...AT OR ABOVE SEASONAL
NORMALS. WINDS WILL FOLLOW FAMILIAR WARM SEASON PATTERNS. BY MIDWEEK
A SUBTLE RETURN OF GULF MOISTURE MAY BOOST AREA HUMIDITIES AND BRING
SOME STORM CHANCES OUT OF THE MOUNTAINS AND BACK INTO THE LOWER AZ
DESERT LOCALES. DAYTIME HUMIDITIES WILL RETURN TO READINGS IN THE
UPPER TEENS TO LOW TWENTIES.

&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT CONDITIONS ACCORDING TO STANDARD
OPERATING PROCEDURES.

&&

.PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AZ...NONE.
CA...NONE.
&&

$$

VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/PHOENIX

DISCUSSION...DEWEY
AVIATION...NOLTE
FIRE WEATHER...NOLTE



000
FXUS65 KPSR 011209
AFDPSR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PHOENIX AZ
510 AM MST SAT AUG 1 2015

.UPDATE...TO AVIATION AND FIRE WEATHER DISCUSSIONS...

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
STORM CHANCES WILL BE LESS TODAY WITH CHANCES LIMITED TO AREAS EAST
OF THE LOWER COLORADO RIVER VALLEY. FURTHER DRYING OCCURS NEXT WEEK
WITH STORM CHANCES CONFINED TO THE HIGHER TERRAIN EAST OF PHOENIX.
TEMPERATURES WILL HOVER NEAR NORMAL THROUGH NEXT WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
PER LATEST RADAR AND SATELLITE IMAGERY...MOST OF THE SOUTH CENTRAL
DESERTS ARE QUIET ASIDE FROM SOME DEVELOPING STORMS ACROSS SOUTHERN
LA PAZ COUNTY. UNDER THE BULLSEYE OF MAX PRECIPITABLE WATER /1.7 -
1.8 INCH/ AND RIDING A SHORTWAVE INVERTED TROUGH FEATURE MOVING
NORTH THROUGH WESTERN ARIZONA...THERE SEEMS TO BE JUST ENOUGH
INSTABILITY TO GENERATE SOME THUNDERSTORMS EARLY THIS MORNING.
CONCERNING THE MESOSCALE CONVECTIVE MODELS...THE GFS FLAVORS HAVE
INITIALIZED BETTER THAN THE NAM...HINTING AT SOME EARLY AM ACTIVITY
ACROSS WESTERN AZ AND FAR SOUTHEASTERN CA. AS THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW
CONTINUES TO SHIFT MORE TO A SOUTHERLY DIRECTION...MID TO UPPER
LEVEL WINDS SUPPORT A DIFFLUENT ZONE FROM PARKER TO SHOW LOW WHERE
THE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE TO THE EAST MOVES WEST AND AN EMBEDDED
TROUGH FEATURE PUSHES NORTH THROUGH SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA.
TEMPERATURES WARMED A FEW DEGREES HIGHER THAN ANTICIPATED
FRIDAY...TIPPING A HAT TO THE CLEAR SKIES WHICH IN TURN GAVE ENOUGH
DAYTIME HEATING TO GENERATE CONVECTIVE INITIATION EARLY IN THE DAY.

CLEARING SKIES FROM THE SOUTH WILL AGAIN PLAY INTO CONVECTIVE
INITIATION PROVIDING THE ATMOSPHERE IS NOT COMPLETELY MIXED THROUGH
AND OVERWORKED FROM LAST EVENING. LITTLE CHANGE IN ATMOSPHERIC
MOISTURE FROM AREA UPPER AIR SOUNDINGS COMPARING 12Z FRIDAY TO 00Z
SATURDAY. THE BIG FACTOR AGAIN TODAY WILL BE SUFFICIENT DAYTIME
HEATING. UTILIZING THE TROUGH TO THE WEST AND THE REMNANT INVERTED
TROUGH FEATURE SHOULD BE THE DYNAMIC LIFT NEEDED TO DRIVE STORM
DEVELOPMENT. THE HIGHER TERRAIN MOUNTAIN LOCATIONS WILL BE MORE
FAVORABLE FOR ACTIVITY.

LOOKING AHEAD SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY WILL BE MUCH QUIETER ON THE
STORM FRONT...AS SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW SETTLES IN WITH THE HIGH MOVING
FARTHER WEST. A DRYING AND SUBTLE WARMING TREND WILL TAKE PLACE
ACROSS THE DESERT SOUTHWEST...ALLOWING TEMPERATURES TO REACH JUST
ABOVE SEASONAL AVERAGE. MORE OF A MONSOON PATTERN WILL RETURN LATE
IN THE WEEK WITH A RETURN TO SOUTH-SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW AND BACK ABOVE
THE 90TH PERCENTILE IN TERMS OF PRECIPITABLE WATER READINGS.

&&

.AVIATION...
SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA INCLUDING KPHX...KIWA...AND KSDL...
AMPLE AREA OF DEBRIS CLOUDS LINGER ACROSS SOUTH-CENTRAL AZ...AND IN
PARTICULAR AT TIME OF THIS WRITING ALONG THE NORTHERN MARICOPA
COUNTY LINE. SOME SHOWERS HAVE POPPED-UP ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE
NORTH VALLEY...SO AM VCSH WERE INCLUDED IN THE KPHX AND KSDL TAFS.
SFC FLOW THIS AM MAINTAINING SOME WEAK WESTERLY
INFLUENCE...OTHERWISE WINDS WILL BE VRB UNTIL MIDDAY WHEN STRONGER
WEST FLOW AT THE SFC AND ALOFT TRANSITIONS INTO THE AREA. COULD SEE
ANOTHER ROUND OF POP-UP STORMS OVER PARTS OF THE DESERTS THIS
AFTERNOON...WITH INITIATION PROGGED ATTM AROUND 01/22Z TO 02/00Z.
SOUTHERLY AM CLOUD/STORM MOTION WILL TRANSITION TO WESTERLY BY THE
AFTERNOON...SENDING ANY PTNL STORMS THAT MAY FORM ACROSS W/SW
MARICOPA COUNTY TOWARDS THE PHX METRO. COVERAGE SHOULD BE MORE
LIMITED THAT WHAT WAS OBSERVED ON FRIDAY...BUT WITH STILL PLENTY OF
MOISTURE IN PLACE DURING THE DAY...CANNOT RULE OUT SOME VC DEVELOPMENT
THIS AFTN.


SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA AND SOUTHWEST ARIZONA INCLUDING KIPL AND
KBLH...
PASSING FEW-SCT MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO STREAM
MOSTLY TO THE NORTH BEFORE SKIES CLEAR ALMOST COMPLETELY BY THE LATE
AFTN/EVENING HOURS. DRYING WEST TO SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT SHOULD KEEP
ANY STORM CHANCES EAST IN AZ THROUGHOUT THE DAY. WINDS OVERALL TO
FAVOR SOUTHERLY HEADINGS FOR KBLH AND WESTERLY FOR KIPL.

AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDED TAFS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...
SOUTHWEST TO WEST FLOW THROUGH THE BULK OF THE ATMOSPHERIC
COLUMN...SFC TO UPPER LEVELS...WILL SWEEP THE MONSOON MOISTURE
SURFACE INTO FAR EASTERN AZ. STORM CHANCES WILL BE RELEGATED TO THE
HIGHER TERRAIN WITH MOSTLY QUIET CONDITIONS EXPECTED OVER THE LOWER
DESERT ELEVATIONS. MINIMUM RH VALUES WILL BEGIN TO SETTLE INTO THE
TEENS WHILE STILL MAKING MOSTLY MODEST TO FAIR OVERNIGHT RECOVERIES.
THE SLIGHTLY DRIER AIRMASS AND BUILDING UPPER RIDGE HEIGHTS WILL
LEND THEMSELVES TOWARD WARMER SFC CONDITIONS...AT OR ABOVE SEASONAL
NORMALS. WINDS WILL FOLLOW FAMILIAR WARM SEASON PATTERNS. BY MIDWEEK
A SUBTLE RETURN OF GULF MOISTURE MAY BOOST AREA HUMIDITIES AND BRING
SOME STORM CHANCES OUT OF THE MOUNTAINS AND BACK INTO THE LOWER AZ
DESERT LOCALES. DAYTIME HUMIDITIES WILL RETURN TO READINGS IN THE
UPPER TEENS TO LOW TWENTIES.

&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT CONDITIONS ACCORDING TO STANDARD
OPERATING PROCEDURES.

&&

.PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AZ...NONE.
CA...NONE.
&&

$$

VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/PHOENIX

DISCUSSION...DEWEY
AVIATION...NOLTE
FIRE WEATHER...NOLTE



000
FXUS65 KPSR 011209
AFDPSR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PHOENIX AZ
510 AM MST SAT AUG 1 2015

.UPDATE...TO AVIATION AND FIRE WEATHER DISCUSSIONS...

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
STORM CHANCES WILL BE LESS TODAY WITH CHANCES LIMITED TO AREAS EAST
OF THE LOWER COLORADO RIVER VALLEY. FURTHER DRYING OCCURS NEXT WEEK
WITH STORM CHANCES CONFINED TO THE HIGHER TERRAIN EAST OF PHOENIX.
TEMPERATURES WILL HOVER NEAR NORMAL THROUGH NEXT WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
PER LATEST RADAR AND SATELLITE IMAGERY...MOST OF THE SOUTH CENTRAL
DESERTS ARE QUIET ASIDE FROM SOME DEVELOPING STORMS ACROSS SOUTHERN
LA PAZ COUNTY. UNDER THE BULLSEYE OF MAX PRECIPITABLE WATER /1.7 -
1.8 INCH/ AND RIDING A SHORTWAVE INVERTED TROUGH FEATURE MOVING
NORTH THROUGH WESTERN ARIZONA...THERE SEEMS TO BE JUST ENOUGH
INSTABILITY TO GENERATE SOME THUNDERSTORMS EARLY THIS MORNING.
CONCERNING THE MESOSCALE CONVECTIVE MODELS...THE GFS FLAVORS HAVE
INITIALIZED BETTER THAN THE NAM...HINTING AT SOME EARLY AM ACTIVITY
ACROSS WESTERN AZ AND FAR SOUTHEASTERN CA. AS THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW
CONTINUES TO SHIFT MORE TO A SOUTHERLY DIRECTION...MID TO UPPER
LEVEL WINDS SUPPORT A DIFFLUENT ZONE FROM PARKER TO SHOW LOW WHERE
THE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE TO THE EAST MOVES WEST AND AN EMBEDDED
TROUGH FEATURE PUSHES NORTH THROUGH SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA.
TEMPERATURES WARMED A FEW DEGREES HIGHER THAN ANTICIPATED
FRIDAY...TIPPING A HAT TO THE CLEAR SKIES WHICH IN TURN GAVE ENOUGH
DAYTIME HEATING TO GENERATE CONVECTIVE INITIATION EARLY IN THE DAY.

CLEARING SKIES FROM THE SOUTH WILL AGAIN PLAY INTO CONVECTIVE
INITIATION PROVIDING THE ATMOSPHERE IS NOT COMPLETELY MIXED THROUGH
AND OVERWORKED FROM LAST EVENING. LITTLE CHANGE IN ATMOSPHERIC
MOISTURE FROM AREA UPPER AIR SOUNDINGS COMPARING 12Z FRIDAY TO 00Z
SATURDAY. THE BIG FACTOR AGAIN TODAY WILL BE SUFFICIENT DAYTIME
HEATING. UTILIZING THE TROUGH TO THE WEST AND THE REMNANT INVERTED
TROUGH FEATURE SHOULD BE THE DYNAMIC LIFT NEEDED TO DRIVE STORM
DEVELOPMENT. THE HIGHER TERRAIN MOUNTAIN LOCATIONS WILL BE MORE
FAVORABLE FOR ACTIVITY.

LOOKING AHEAD SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY WILL BE MUCH QUIETER ON THE
STORM FRONT...AS SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW SETTLES IN WITH THE HIGH MOVING
FARTHER WEST. A DRYING AND SUBTLE WARMING TREND WILL TAKE PLACE
ACROSS THE DESERT SOUTHWEST...ALLOWING TEMPERATURES TO REACH JUST
ABOVE SEASONAL AVERAGE. MORE OF A MONSOON PATTERN WILL RETURN LATE
IN THE WEEK WITH A RETURN TO SOUTH-SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW AND BACK ABOVE
THE 90TH PERCENTILE IN TERMS OF PRECIPITABLE WATER READINGS.

&&

.AVIATION...
SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA INCLUDING KPHX...KIWA...AND KSDL...
AMPLE AREA OF DEBRIS CLOUDS LINGER ACROSS SOUTH-CENTRAL AZ...AND IN
PARTICULAR AT TIME OF THIS WRITING ALONG THE NORTHERN MARICOPA
COUNTY LINE. SOME SHOWERS HAVE POPPED-UP ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE
NORTH VALLEY...SO AM VCSH WERE INCLUDED IN THE KPHX AND KSDL TAFS.
SFC FLOW THIS AM MAINTAINING SOME WEAK WESTERLY
INFLUENCE...OTHERWISE WINDS WILL BE VRB UNTIL MIDDAY WHEN STRONGER
WEST FLOW AT THE SFC AND ALOFT TRANSITIONS INTO THE AREA. COULD SEE
ANOTHER ROUND OF POP-UP STORMS OVER PARTS OF THE DESERTS THIS
AFTERNOON...WITH INITIATION PROGGED ATTM AROUND 01/22Z TO 02/00Z.
SOUTHERLY AM CLOUD/STORM MOTION WILL TRANSITION TO WESTERLY BY THE
AFTERNOON...SENDING ANY PTNL STORMS THAT MAY FORM ACROSS W/SW
MARICOPA COUNTY TOWARDS THE PHX METRO. COVERAGE SHOULD BE MORE
LIMITED THAT WHAT WAS OBSERVED ON FRIDAY...BUT WITH STILL PLENTY OF
MOISTURE IN PLACE DURING THE DAY...CANNOT RULE OUT SOME VC DEVELOPMENT
THIS AFTN.


SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA AND SOUTHWEST ARIZONA INCLUDING KIPL AND
KBLH...
PASSING FEW-SCT MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO STREAM
MOSTLY TO THE NORTH BEFORE SKIES CLEAR ALMOST COMPLETELY BY THE LATE
AFTN/EVENING HOURS. DRYING WEST TO SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT SHOULD KEEP
ANY STORM CHANCES EAST IN AZ THROUGHOUT THE DAY. WINDS OVERALL TO
FAVOR SOUTHERLY HEADINGS FOR KBLH AND WESTERLY FOR KIPL.

AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDED TAFS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...
SOUTHWEST TO WEST FLOW THROUGH THE BULK OF THE ATMOSPHERIC
COLUMN...SFC TO UPPER LEVELS...WILL SWEEP THE MONSOON MOISTURE
SURFACE INTO FAR EASTERN AZ. STORM CHANCES WILL BE RELEGATED TO THE
HIGHER TERRAIN WITH MOSTLY QUIET CONDITIONS EXPECTED OVER THE LOWER
DESERT ELEVATIONS. MINIMUM RH VALUES WILL BEGIN TO SETTLE INTO THE
TEENS WHILE STILL MAKING MOSTLY MODEST TO FAIR OVERNIGHT RECOVERIES.
THE SLIGHTLY DRIER AIRMASS AND BUILDING UPPER RIDGE HEIGHTS WILL
LEND THEMSELVES TOWARD WARMER SFC CONDITIONS...AT OR ABOVE SEASONAL
NORMALS. WINDS WILL FOLLOW FAMILIAR WARM SEASON PATTERNS. BY MIDWEEK
A SUBTLE RETURN OF GULF MOISTURE MAY BOOST AREA HUMIDITIES AND BRING
SOME STORM CHANCES OUT OF THE MOUNTAINS AND BACK INTO THE LOWER AZ
DESERT LOCALES. DAYTIME HUMIDITIES WILL RETURN TO READINGS IN THE
UPPER TEENS TO LOW TWENTIES.

&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT CONDITIONS ACCORDING TO STANDARD
OPERATING PROCEDURES.

&&

.PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AZ...NONE.
CA...NONE.
&&

$$

VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/PHOENIX

DISCUSSION...DEWEY
AVIATION...NOLTE
FIRE WEATHER...NOLTE




000
FXUS65 KPSR 011047
AFDPSR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PHOENIX AZ
347 AM MST SAT AUG 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...STORM CHANCES WILL BE LESS TODAY WITH CHANCES LIMITED TO
AREAS EAST OF THE LOWER COLORADO RIVER VALLEY. FURTHER DRYING OCCURS
NEXT WEEK WITH STORM CHANCES CONFINED TO THE HIGHER TERRAIN EAST OF
PHOENIX. TEMPERATURES WILL HOVER NEAR NORMAL THROUGH NEXT WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
PER LATEST RADAR AND SATELLITE IMAGERY...MOST OF THE SOUTH CENTRAL
DESERTS ARE QUIET ASIDE FROM SOME DEVELOPING STORMS ACROSS SOUTHERN
LA PAZ COUNTY. UNDER THE BULLSEYE OF MAX PRECIPITABLE WATER /1.7 -
1.8 INCH/ AND RIDING A SHORTWAVE INVERTED TROUGH FEATURE MOVING NORTH
THROUGH WESTERN ARIZONA...THERE SEEMS TO BE JUST ENOUGH INSTABILITY
TO GENERATE SOME THUNDERSTORMS EARLY THIS MORNING. CONCERNING THE
MESOSCALE CONVECTIVE MODELS...THE GFS FLAVORS HAVE INITIALIZED BETTER
THAN THE NAM...HINTING AT SOME EARLY AM ACTIVITY ACROSS WESTERN AZ
AND FAR SOUTHEASTERN CA. AS THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW CONTINUES TO SHIFT
MORE TO A SOUTHERLY DIRECTION...MID TO UPPER LEVEL WINDS SUPPORT A
DIFFLUENT ZONE FROM PARKER TO SHOW LOW WHERE THE RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE TO THE EAST MOVES WEST AND AN EMBEDDED TROUGH FEATURE
PUSHES NORTH THROUGH SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA. TEMPERATURES WARMED A FEW
DEGREES HIGHER THAN ANTICIPATED FRIDAY...TIPPING A HAT TO THE CLEAR
SKIES WHICH IN TURN GAVE ENOUGH DAYTIME HEATING TO GENERATE
CONVECTIVE INITIATION EARLY IN THE DAY.

CLEARING SKIES FROM THE SOUTH WILL AGAIN PLAY INTO CONVECTIVE
INITIATION PROVIDING THE ATMOSPHERE IS NOT COMPLETELY MIXED THROUGH
AND OVERWORKED FROM LAST EVENING. LITTLE CHANGE IN ATMOSPHERIC
MOISTURE FROM AREA UPPER AIR SOUNDINGS COMPARING 12Z FRIDAY TO 00Z
SATURDAY. THE BIG FACTOR AGAIN TODAY WILL BE SUFFICIENT DAYTIME
HEATING. UTILIZING THE TROUGH TO THE WEST AND THE REMNANT INVERTED
TROUGH FEATURE SHOULD BE THE DYNAMIC LIFT NEEDED TO DRIVE STORM
DEVELOPMENT. THE HIGHER TERRAIN MOUNTAIN LOCATIONS WILL BE MORE
FAVORABLE FOR ACTIVITY.

LOOKING AHEAD SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY WILL BE MUCH QUIETER ON THE
STORM FRONT...AS SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW SETTLES IN WITH THE HIGH MOVING
FARTHER WEST. A DRYING AND SUBTLE WARMING TREND WILL TAKE PLACE
ACROSS THE DESERT SOUTHWEST...ALLOWING TEMPERATURES TO REACH JUST
ABOVE SEASONAL AVERAGE. MORE OF A MONSOON PATTERN WILL RETURN LATE IN
THE WEEK WITH A RETURN TO SOUTH-SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW AND BACK ABOVE THE
90TH PERCENTILE IN TERMS OF PRECIPITABLE WATER READINGS.

&&

.AVIATION...
SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA INCLUDING KPHX...KIWA...AND KSDL...

MOST OF THE THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY HAS ENDED AS THE LOWER ATMOSPHERE
HAS BECOME SIGNIFICANTLY STABILIZED...AND WE ARE LEFT WITH SCATTERED
SHOWERS OR AREAS OF LIGHT RAIN. SHOWERS MAY LINGER INTO THE MORNING
HOURS...WITH CIGS GENLY AOA 8-10K FEET. WE SHOULD SEE THESE LOWER
CIGS GRADUALLY DISSIPATE AFTER MIDNIGHT LEAVING BEHIND SCT-BKN MID
AND HI LEVEL DEBRIS DECKS. GIVEN HOW WORKED OVER THE ATMOSPHERE
IS...THEREAT FOR STORMS SHOULD BE MUCH LESS TOMORROW BUT WE WILL
LIKELY SEE CUMULUS DEVELOP DURING THE LATE MORNING OR EARLY
AFTERNOON WITH BASES MOSTLY AOA 7K FEET. WINDS HAVE CALMED DOWN AND
SHOULD TEND TO FAVOR THE EAST AFTER MIDNIGHT...THEN RETURNING TO THE
SOUTHWEST OR WEST DURING THE AFTERNOON SATURDAY.

SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA AND SOUTHWEST ARIZONA INCLUDING KIPL AND
KBLH...

VERY LITTLE THREAT FOR SHOWERS OR STORMS FOR THE REST OF
TONIGHT...WITH ONLY SOME MID/HI LEVEL DEBRIS CLOUDS EXPECTED TO
DRIFT INTO THE AREA. BETTER CHANCES FOR THICK DEBRIS DECKS AT KBLH.
BY MID MORNING SATURDAY SKIES SHOULD BE GENLY SUNNY. NO STRONG WINDS
ARE EXPECTED NEXT 24 HOURS...AND THEY SHOULD FAVOR THE SOUTH AT KBLH
AND THE WEST AT KIPL.

AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDED TAFS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...
MONSOONAL MOISTURE WILL SLOWLY BEGIN TO THIN ACROSS THE AREA...FIRST
ACROSS THE WESTERN FIRE DISTRICTS AND EVENTUALLY INTO THE ENTIRE
LOWER DESERT ELEVATIONS AND REGION BY EARLY NEXT WEEK. THIS WILL
RELEGATE STORM CHANCES BACK TOWARDS THE HIGHER TERRAIN AND FURTHER
TO THE EAST ACROSS AZ. MINIMUM RH VALUES WILL BEGIN TO SETTLE INTO
THE TEENS WHILE MAKING MOSTLY MODEST TO FAIR OVERNIGHT RECOVERIES.
THE SLIGHTLY DRIER AIRMASS AND BUILDING UPPER RIDGE HEIGHTS WILL
LEND THEMSELVES TOWARD WARMER SFC CONDITIONS...AT OR ABOVE SEASONAL
NORMALS. WINDS WILL FOLLOW FAMILIAR WARM SEASON PATTERNS. BY MIDWEEK
A SUBTLE RETURN OF GULF MOISTURE MAY BOOST AREA HUMIDITIES...BUT NOT
LINGER MUCH THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT CONDITIONS ACCORDING TO STANDARD
OPERATING PROCEDURES.

&&

.PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AZ...NONE.
CA...NONE.
&&

$$

VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/PHOENIX

DISCUSSION...DEWEY
AVIATION...CB
FIRE WEATHER...NOLTE



000
FXUS65 KPSR 011047
AFDPSR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PHOENIX AZ
347 AM MST SAT AUG 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...STORM CHANCES WILL BE LESS TODAY WITH CHANCES LIMITED TO
AREAS EAST OF THE LOWER COLORADO RIVER VALLEY. FURTHER DRYING OCCURS
NEXT WEEK WITH STORM CHANCES CONFINED TO THE HIGHER TERRAIN EAST OF
PHOENIX. TEMPERATURES WILL HOVER NEAR NORMAL THROUGH NEXT WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
PER LATEST RADAR AND SATELLITE IMAGERY...MOST OF THE SOUTH CENTRAL
DESERTS ARE QUIET ASIDE FROM SOME DEVELOPING STORMS ACROSS SOUTHERN
LA PAZ COUNTY. UNDER THE BULLSEYE OF MAX PRECIPITABLE WATER /1.7 -
1.8 INCH/ AND RIDING A SHORTWAVE INVERTED TROUGH FEATURE MOVING NORTH
THROUGH WESTERN ARIZONA...THERE SEEMS TO BE JUST ENOUGH INSTABILITY
TO GENERATE SOME THUNDERSTORMS EARLY THIS MORNING. CONCERNING THE
MESOSCALE CONVECTIVE MODELS...THE GFS FLAVORS HAVE INITIALIZED BETTER
THAN THE NAM...HINTING AT SOME EARLY AM ACTIVITY ACROSS WESTERN AZ
AND FAR SOUTHEASTERN CA. AS THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW CONTINUES TO SHIFT
MORE TO A SOUTHERLY DIRECTION...MID TO UPPER LEVEL WINDS SUPPORT A
DIFFLUENT ZONE FROM PARKER TO SHOW LOW WHERE THE RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE TO THE EAST MOVES WEST AND AN EMBEDDED TROUGH FEATURE
PUSHES NORTH THROUGH SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA. TEMPERATURES WARMED A FEW
DEGREES HIGHER THAN ANTICIPATED FRIDAY...TIPPING A HAT TO THE CLEAR
SKIES WHICH IN TURN GAVE ENOUGH DAYTIME HEATING TO GENERATE
CONVECTIVE INITIATION EARLY IN THE DAY.

CLEARING SKIES FROM THE SOUTH WILL AGAIN PLAY INTO CONVECTIVE
INITIATION PROVIDING THE ATMOSPHERE IS NOT COMPLETELY MIXED THROUGH
AND OVERWORKED FROM LAST EVENING. LITTLE CHANGE IN ATMOSPHERIC
MOISTURE FROM AREA UPPER AIR SOUNDINGS COMPARING 12Z FRIDAY TO 00Z
SATURDAY. THE BIG FACTOR AGAIN TODAY WILL BE SUFFICIENT DAYTIME
HEATING. UTILIZING THE TROUGH TO THE WEST AND THE REMNANT INVERTED
TROUGH FEATURE SHOULD BE THE DYNAMIC LIFT NEEDED TO DRIVE STORM
DEVELOPMENT. THE HIGHER TERRAIN MOUNTAIN LOCATIONS WILL BE MORE
FAVORABLE FOR ACTIVITY.

LOOKING AHEAD SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY WILL BE MUCH QUIETER ON THE
STORM FRONT...AS SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW SETTLES IN WITH THE HIGH MOVING
FARTHER WEST. A DRYING AND SUBTLE WARMING TREND WILL TAKE PLACE
ACROSS THE DESERT SOUTHWEST...ALLOWING TEMPERATURES TO REACH JUST
ABOVE SEASONAL AVERAGE. MORE OF A MONSOON PATTERN WILL RETURN LATE IN
THE WEEK WITH A RETURN TO SOUTH-SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW AND BACK ABOVE THE
90TH PERCENTILE IN TERMS OF PRECIPITABLE WATER READINGS.

&&

.AVIATION...
SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA INCLUDING KPHX...KIWA...AND KSDL...

MOST OF THE THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY HAS ENDED AS THE LOWER ATMOSPHERE
HAS BECOME SIGNIFICANTLY STABILIZED...AND WE ARE LEFT WITH SCATTERED
SHOWERS OR AREAS OF LIGHT RAIN. SHOWERS MAY LINGER INTO THE MORNING
HOURS...WITH CIGS GENLY AOA 8-10K FEET. WE SHOULD SEE THESE LOWER
CIGS GRADUALLY DISSIPATE AFTER MIDNIGHT LEAVING BEHIND SCT-BKN MID
AND HI LEVEL DEBRIS DECKS. GIVEN HOW WORKED OVER THE ATMOSPHERE
IS...THEREAT FOR STORMS SHOULD BE MUCH LESS TOMORROW BUT WE WILL
LIKELY SEE CUMULUS DEVELOP DURING THE LATE MORNING OR EARLY
AFTERNOON WITH BASES MOSTLY AOA 7K FEET. WINDS HAVE CALMED DOWN AND
SHOULD TEND TO FAVOR THE EAST AFTER MIDNIGHT...THEN RETURNING TO THE
SOUTHWEST OR WEST DURING THE AFTERNOON SATURDAY.

SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA AND SOUTHWEST ARIZONA INCLUDING KIPL AND
KBLH...

VERY LITTLE THREAT FOR SHOWERS OR STORMS FOR THE REST OF
TONIGHT...WITH ONLY SOME MID/HI LEVEL DEBRIS CLOUDS EXPECTED TO
DRIFT INTO THE AREA. BETTER CHANCES FOR THICK DEBRIS DECKS AT KBLH.
BY MID MORNING SATURDAY SKIES SHOULD BE GENLY SUNNY. NO STRONG WINDS
ARE EXPECTED NEXT 24 HOURS...AND THEY SHOULD FAVOR THE SOUTH AT KBLH
AND THE WEST AT KIPL.

AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDED TAFS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...
MONSOONAL MOISTURE WILL SLOWLY BEGIN TO THIN ACROSS THE AREA...FIRST
ACROSS THE WESTERN FIRE DISTRICTS AND EVENTUALLY INTO THE ENTIRE
LOWER DESERT ELEVATIONS AND REGION BY EARLY NEXT WEEK. THIS WILL
RELEGATE STORM CHANCES BACK TOWARDS THE HIGHER TERRAIN AND FURTHER
TO THE EAST ACROSS AZ. MINIMUM RH VALUES WILL BEGIN TO SETTLE INTO
THE TEENS WHILE MAKING MOSTLY MODEST TO FAIR OVERNIGHT RECOVERIES.
THE SLIGHTLY DRIER AIRMASS AND BUILDING UPPER RIDGE HEIGHTS WILL
LEND THEMSELVES TOWARD WARMER SFC CONDITIONS...AT OR ABOVE SEASONAL
NORMALS. WINDS WILL FOLLOW FAMILIAR WARM SEASON PATTERNS. BY MIDWEEK
A SUBTLE RETURN OF GULF MOISTURE MAY BOOST AREA HUMIDITIES...BUT NOT
LINGER MUCH THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT CONDITIONS ACCORDING TO STANDARD
OPERATING PROCEDURES.

&&

.PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AZ...NONE.
CA...NONE.
&&

$$

VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/PHOENIX

DISCUSSION...DEWEY
AVIATION...CB
FIRE WEATHER...NOLTE



000
FXUS65 KPSR 011047
AFDPSR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PHOENIX AZ
347 AM MST SAT AUG 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...STORM CHANCES WILL BE LESS TODAY WITH CHANCES LIMITED TO
AREAS EAST OF THE LOWER COLORADO RIVER VALLEY. FURTHER DRYING OCCURS
NEXT WEEK WITH STORM CHANCES CONFINED TO THE HIGHER TERRAIN EAST OF
PHOENIX. TEMPERATURES WILL HOVER NEAR NORMAL THROUGH NEXT WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
PER LATEST RADAR AND SATELLITE IMAGERY...MOST OF THE SOUTH CENTRAL
DESERTS ARE QUIET ASIDE FROM SOME DEVELOPING STORMS ACROSS SOUTHERN
LA PAZ COUNTY. UNDER THE BULLSEYE OF MAX PRECIPITABLE WATER /1.7 -
1.8 INCH/ AND RIDING A SHORTWAVE INVERTED TROUGH FEATURE MOVING NORTH
THROUGH WESTERN ARIZONA...THERE SEEMS TO BE JUST ENOUGH INSTABILITY
TO GENERATE SOME THUNDERSTORMS EARLY THIS MORNING. CONCERNING THE
MESOSCALE CONVECTIVE MODELS...THE GFS FLAVORS HAVE INITIALIZED BETTER
THAN THE NAM...HINTING AT SOME EARLY AM ACTIVITY ACROSS WESTERN AZ
AND FAR SOUTHEASTERN CA. AS THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW CONTINUES TO SHIFT
MORE TO A SOUTHERLY DIRECTION...MID TO UPPER LEVEL WINDS SUPPORT A
DIFFLUENT ZONE FROM PARKER TO SHOW LOW WHERE THE RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE TO THE EAST MOVES WEST AND AN EMBEDDED TROUGH FEATURE
PUSHES NORTH THROUGH SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA. TEMPERATURES WARMED A FEW
DEGREES HIGHER THAN ANTICIPATED FRIDAY...TIPPING A HAT TO THE CLEAR
SKIES WHICH IN TURN GAVE ENOUGH DAYTIME HEATING TO GENERATE
CONVECTIVE INITIATION EARLY IN THE DAY.

CLEARING SKIES FROM THE SOUTH WILL AGAIN PLAY INTO CONVECTIVE
INITIATION PROVIDING THE ATMOSPHERE IS NOT COMPLETELY MIXED THROUGH
AND OVERWORKED FROM LAST EVENING. LITTLE CHANGE IN ATMOSPHERIC
MOISTURE FROM AREA UPPER AIR SOUNDINGS COMPARING 12Z FRIDAY TO 00Z
SATURDAY. THE BIG FACTOR AGAIN TODAY WILL BE SUFFICIENT DAYTIME
HEATING. UTILIZING THE TROUGH TO THE WEST AND THE REMNANT INVERTED
TROUGH FEATURE SHOULD BE THE DYNAMIC LIFT NEEDED TO DRIVE STORM
DEVELOPMENT. THE HIGHER TERRAIN MOUNTAIN LOCATIONS WILL BE MORE
FAVORABLE FOR ACTIVITY.

LOOKING AHEAD SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY WILL BE MUCH QUIETER ON THE
STORM FRONT...AS SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW SETTLES IN WITH THE HIGH MOVING
FARTHER WEST. A DRYING AND SUBTLE WARMING TREND WILL TAKE PLACE
ACROSS THE DESERT SOUTHWEST...ALLOWING TEMPERATURES TO REACH JUST
ABOVE SEASONAL AVERAGE. MORE OF A MONSOON PATTERN WILL RETURN LATE IN
THE WEEK WITH A RETURN TO SOUTH-SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW AND BACK ABOVE THE
90TH PERCENTILE IN TERMS OF PRECIPITABLE WATER READINGS.

&&

.AVIATION...
SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA INCLUDING KPHX...KIWA...AND KSDL...

MOST OF THE THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY HAS ENDED AS THE LOWER ATMOSPHERE
HAS BECOME SIGNIFICANTLY STABILIZED...AND WE ARE LEFT WITH SCATTERED
SHOWERS OR AREAS OF LIGHT RAIN. SHOWERS MAY LINGER INTO THE MORNING
HOURS...WITH CIGS GENLY AOA 8-10K FEET. WE SHOULD SEE THESE LOWER
CIGS GRADUALLY DISSIPATE AFTER MIDNIGHT LEAVING BEHIND SCT-BKN MID
AND HI LEVEL DEBRIS DECKS. GIVEN HOW WORKED OVER THE ATMOSPHERE
IS...THEREAT FOR STORMS SHOULD BE MUCH LESS TOMORROW BUT WE WILL
LIKELY SEE CUMULUS DEVELOP DURING THE LATE MORNING OR EARLY
AFTERNOON WITH BASES MOSTLY AOA 7K FEET. WINDS HAVE CALMED DOWN AND
SHOULD TEND TO FAVOR THE EAST AFTER MIDNIGHT...THEN RETURNING TO THE
SOUTHWEST OR WEST DURING THE AFTERNOON SATURDAY.

SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA AND SOUTHWEST ARIZONA INCLUDING KIPL AND
KBLH...

VERY LITTLE THREAT FOR SHOWERS OR STORMS FOR THE REST OF
TONIGHT...WITH ONLY SOME MID/HI LEVEL DEBRIS CLOUDS EXPECTED TO
DRIFT INTO THE AREA. BETTER CHANCES FOR THICK DEBRIS DECKS AT KBLH.
BY MID MORNING SATURDAY SKIES SHOULD BE GENLY SUNNY. NO STRONG WINDS
ARE EXPECTED NEXT 24 HOURS...AND THEY SHOULD FAVOR THE SOUTH AT KBLH
AND THE WEST AT KIPL.

AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDED TAFS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...
MONSOONAL MOISTURE WILL SLOWLY BEGIN TO THIN ACROSS THE AREA...FIRST
ACROSS THE WESTERN FIRE DISTRICTS AND EVENTUALLY INTO THE ENTIRE
LOWER DESERT ELEVATIONS AND REGION BY EARLY NEXT WEEK. THIS WILL
RELEGATE STORM CHANCES BACK TOWARDS THE HIGHER TERRAIN AND FURTHER
TO THE EAST ACROSS AZ. MINIMUM RH VALUES WILL BEGIN TO SETTLE INTO
THE TEENS WHILE MAKING MOSTLY MODEST TO FAIR OVERNIGHT RECOVERIES.
THE SLIGHTLY DRIER AIRMASS AND BUILDING UPPER RIDGE HEIGHTS WILL
LEND THEMSELVES TOWARD WARMER SFC CONDITIONS...AT OR ABOVE SEASONAL
NORMALS. WINDS WILL FOLLOW FAMILIAR WARM SEASON PATTERNS. BY MIDWEEK
A SUBTLE RETURN OF GULF MOISTURE MAY BOOST AREA HUMIDITIES...BUT NOT
LINGER MUCH THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT CONDITIONS ACCORDING TO STANDARD
OPERATING PROCEDURES.

&&

.PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AZ...NONE.
CA...NONE.
&&

$$

VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/PHOENIX

DISCUSSION...DEWEY
AVIATION...CB
FIRE WEATHER...NOLTE



000
FXUS65 KPSR 011047
AFDPSR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PHOENIX AZ
347 AM MST SAT AUG 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...STORM CHANCES WILL BE LESS TODAY WITH CHANCES LIMITED TO
AREAS EAST OF THE LOWER COLORADO RIVER VALLEY. FURTHER DRYING OCCURS
NEXT WEEK WITH STORM CHANCES CONFINED TO THE HIGHER TERRAIN EAST OF
PHOENIX. TEMPERATURES WILL HOVER NEAR NORMAL THROUGH NEXT WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
PER LATEST RADAR AND SATELLITE IMAGERY...MOST OF THE SOUTH CENTRAL
DESERTS ARE QUIET ASIDE FROM SOME DEVELOPING STORMS ACROSS SOUTHERN
LA PAZ COUNTY. UNDER THE BULLSEYE OF MAX PRECIPITABLE WATER /1.7 -
1.8 INCH/ AND RIDING A SHORTWAVE INVERTED TROUGH FEATURE MOVING NORTH
THROUGH WESTERN ARIZONA...THERE SEEMS TO BE JUST ENOUGH INSTABILITY
TO GENERATE SOME THUNDERSTORMS EARLY THIS MORNING. CONCERNING THE
MESOSCALE CONVECTIVE MODELS...THE GFS FLAVORS HAVE INITIALIZED BETTER
THAN THE NAM...HINTING AT SOME EARLY AM ACTIVITY ACROSS WESTERN AZ
AND FAR SOUTHEASTERN CA. AS THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW CONTINUES TO SHIFT
MORE TO A SOUTHERLY DIRECTION...MID TO UPPER LEVEL WINDS SUPPORT A
DIFFLUENT ZONE FROM PARKER TO SHOW LOW WHERE THE RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE TO THE EAST MOVES WEST AND AN EMBEDDED TROUGH FEATURE
PUSHES NORTH THROUGH SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA. TEMPERATURES WARMED A FEW
DEGREES HIGHER THAN ANTICIPATED FRIDAY...TIPPING A HAT TO THE CLEAR
SKIES WHICH IN TURN GAVE ENOUGH DAYTIME HEATING TO GENERATE
CONVECTIVE INITIATION EARLY IN THE DAY.

CLEARING SKIES FROM THE SOUTH WILL AGAIN PLAY INTO CONVECTIVE
INITIATION PROVIDING THE ATMOSPHERE IS NOT COMPLETELY MIXED THROUGH
AND OVERWORKED FROM LAST EVENING. LITTLE CHANGE IN ATMOSPHERIC
MOISTURE FROM AREA UPPER AIR SOUNDINGS COMPARING 12Z FRIDAY TO 00Z
SATURDAY. THE BIG FACTOR AGAIN TODAY WILL BE SUFFICIENT DAYTIME
HEATING. UTILIZING THE TROUGH TO THE WEST AND THE REMNANT INVERTED
TROUGH FEATURE SHOULD BE THE DYNAMIC LIFT NEEDED TO DRIVE STORM
DEVELOPMENT. THE HIGHER TERRAIN MOUNTAIN LOCATIONS WILL BE MORE
FAVORABLE FOR ACTIVITY.

LOOKING AHEAD SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY WILL BE MUCH QUIETER ON THE
STORM FRONT...AS SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW SETTLES IN WITH THE HIGH MOVING
FARTHER WEST. A DRYING AND SUBTLE WARMING TREND WILL TAKE PLACE
ACROSS THE DESERT SOUTHWEST...ALLOWING TEMPERATURES TO REACH JUST
ABOVE SEASONAL AVERAGE. MORE OF A MONSOON PATTERN WILL RETURN LATE IN
THE WEEK WITH A RETURN TO SOUTH-SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW AND BACK ABOVE THE
90TH PERCENTILE IN TERMS OF PRECIPITABLE WATER READINGS.

&&

.AVIATION...
SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA INCLUDING KPHX...KIWA...AND KSDL...

MOST OF THE THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY HAS ENDED AS THE LOWER ATMOSPHERE
HAS BECOME SIGNIFICANTLY STABILIZED...AND WE ARE LEFT WITH SCATTERED
SHOWERS OR AREAS OF LIGHT RAIN. SHOWERS MAY LINGER INTO THE MORNING
HOURS...WITH CIGS GENLY AOA 8-10K FEET. WE SHOULD SEE THESE LOWER
CIGS GRADUALLY DISSIPATE AFTER MIDNIGHT LEAVING BEHIND SCT-BKN MID
AND HI LEVEL DEBRIS DECKS. GIVEN HOW WORKED OVER THE ATMOSPHERE
IS...THEREAT FOR STORMS SHOULD BE MUCH LESS TOMORROW BUT WE WILL
LIKELY SEE CUMULUS DEVELOP DURING THE LATE MORNING OR EARLY
AFTERNOON WITH BASES MOSTLY AOA 7K FEET. WINDS HAVE CALMED DOWN AND
SHOULD TEND TO FAVOR THE EAST AFTER MIDNIGHT...THEN RETURNING TO THE
SOUTHWEST OR WEST DURING THE AFTERNOON SATURDAY.

SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA AND SOUTHWEST ARIZONA INCLUDING KIPL AND
KBLH...

VERY LITTLE THREAT FOR SHOWERS OR STORMS FOR THE REST OF
TONIGHT...WITH ONLY SOME MID/HI LEVEL DEBRIS CLOUDS EXPECTED TO
DRIFT INTO THE AREA. BETTER CHANCES FOR THICK DEBRIS DECKS AT KBLH.
BY MID MORNING SATURDAY SKIES SHOULD BE GENLY SUNNY. NO STRONG WINDS
ARE EXPECTED NEXT 24 HOURS...AND THEY SHOULD FAVOR THE SOUTH AT KBLH
AND THE WEST AT KIPL.

AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDED TAFS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...
MONSOONAL MOISTURE WILL SLOWLY BEGIN TO THIN ACROSS THE AREA...FIRST
ACROSS THE WESTERN FIRE DISTRICTS AND EVENTUALLY INTO THE ENTIRE
LOWER DESERT ELEVATIONS AND REGION BY EARLY NEXT WEEK. THIS WILL
RELEGATE STORM CHANCES BACK TOWARDS THE HIGHER TERRAIN AND FURTHER
TO THE EAST ACROSS AZ. MINIMUM RH VALUES WILL BEGIN TO SETTLE INTO
THE TEENS WHILE MAKING MOSTLY MODEST TO FAIR OVERNIGHT RECOVERIES.
THE SLIGHTLY DRIER AIRMASS AND BUILDING UPPER RIDGE HEIGHTS WILL
LEND THEMSELVES TOWARD WARMER SFC CONDITIONS...AT OR ABOVE SEASONAL
NORMALS. WINDS WILL FOLLOW FAMILIAR WARM SEASON PATTERNS. BY MIDWEEK
A SUBTLE RETURN OF GULF MOISTURE MAY BOOST AREA HUMIDITIES...BUT NOT
LINGER MUCH THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT CONDITIONS ACCORDING TO STANDARD
OPERATING PROCEDURES.

&&

.PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AZ...NONE.
CA...NONE.
&&

$$

VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/PHOENIX

DISCUSSION...DEWEY
AVIATION...CB
FIRE WEATHER...NOLTE



000
FXUS65 KPSR 011047
AFDPSR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PHOENIX AZ
347 AM MST SAT AUG 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...STORM CHANCES WILL BE LESS TODAY WITH CHANCES LIMITED TO
AREAS EAST OF THE LOWER COLORADO RIVER VALLEY. FURTHER DRYING OCCURS
NEXT WEEK WITH STORM CHANCES CONFINED TO THE HIGHER TERRAIN EAST OF
PHOENIX. TEMPERATURES WILL HOVER NEAR NORMAL THROUGH NEXT WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
PER LATEST RADAR AND SATELLITE IMAGERY...MOST OF THE SOUTH CENTRAL
DESERTS ARE QUIET ASIDE FROM SOME DEVELOPING STORMS ACROSS SOUTHERN
LA PAZ COUNTY. UNDER THE BULLSEYE OF MAX PRECIPITABLE WATER /1.7 -
1.8 INCH/ AND RIDING A SHORTWAVE INVERTED TROUGH FEATURE MOVING NORTH
THROUGH WESTERN ARIZONA...THERE SEEMS TO BE JUST ENOUGH INSTABILITY
TO GENERATE SOME THUNDERSTORMS EARLY THIS MORNING. CONCERNING THE
MESOSCALE CONVECTIVE MODELS...THE GFS FLAVORS HAVE INITIALIZED BETTER
THAN THE NAM...HINTING AT SOME EARLY AM ACTIVITY ACROSS WESTERN AZ
AND FAR SOUTHEASTERN CA. AS THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW CONTINUES TO SHIFT
MORE TO A SOUTHERLY DIRECTION...MID TO UPPER LEVEL WINDS SUPPORT A
DIFFLUENT ZONE FROM PARKER TO SHOW LOW WHERE THE RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE TO THE EAST MOVES WEST AND AN EMBEDDED TROUGH FEATURE
PUSHES NORTH THROUGH SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA. TEMPERATURES WARMED A FEW
DEGREES HIGHER THAN ANTICIPATED FRIDAY...TIPPING A HAT TO THE CLEAR
SKIES WHICH IN TURN GAVE ENOUGH DAYTIME HEATING TO GENERATE
CONVECTIVE INITIATION EARLY IN THE DAY.

CLEARING SKIES FROM THE SOUTH WILL AGAIN PLAY INTO CONVECTIVE
INITIATION PROVIDING THE ATMOSPHERE IS NOT COMPLETELY MIXED THROUGH
AND OVERWORKED FROM LAST EVENING. LITTLE CHANGE IN ATMOSPHERIC
MOISTURE FROM AREA UPPER AIR SOUNDINGS COMPARING 12Z FRIDAY TO 00Z
SATURDAY. THE BIG FACTOR AGAIN TODAY WILL BE SUFFICIENT DAYTIME
HEATING. UTILIZING THE TROUGH TO THE WEST AND THE REMNANT INVERTED
TROUGH FEATURE SHOULD BE THE DYNAMIC LIFT NEEDED TO DRIVE STORM
DEVELOPMENT. THE HIGHER TERRAIN MOUNTAIN LOCATIONS WILL BE MORE
FAVORABLE FOR ACTIVITY.

LOOKING AHEAD SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY WILL BE MUCH QUIETER ON THE
STORM FRONT...AS SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW SETTLES IN WITH THE HIGH MOVING
FARTHER WEST. A DRYING AND SUBTLE WARMING TREND WILL TAKE PLACE
ACROSS THE DESERT SOUTHWEST...ALLOWING TEMPERATURES TO REACH JUST
ABOVE SEASONAL AVERAGE. MORE OF A MONSOON PATTERN WILL RETURN LATE IN
THE WEEK WITH A RETURN TO SOUTH-SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW AND BACK ABOVE THE
90TH PERCENTILE IN TERMS OF PRECIPITABLE WATER READINGS.

&&

.AVIATION...
SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA INCLUDING KPHX...KIWA...AND KSDL...

MOST OF THE THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY HAS ENDED AS THE LOWER ATMOSPHERE
HAS BECOME SIGNIFICANTLY STABILIZED...AND WE ARE LEFT WITH SCATTERED
SHOWERS OR AREAS OF LIGHT RAIN. SHOWERS MAY LINGER INTO THE MORNING
HOURS...WITH CIGS GENLY AOA 8-10K FEET. WE SHOULD SEE THESE LOWER
CIGS GRADUALLY DISSIPATE AFTER MIDNIGHT LEAVING BEHIND SCT-BKN MID
AND HI LEVEL DEBRIS DECKS. GIVEN HOW WORKED OVER THE ATMOSPHERE
IS...THEREAT FOR STORMS SHOULD BE MUCH LESS TOMORROW BUT WE WILL
LIKELY SEE CUMULUS DEVELOP DURING THE LATE MORNING OR EARLY
AFTERNOON WITH BASES MOSTLY AOA 7K FEET. WINDS HAVE CALMED DOWN AND
SHOULD TEND TO FAVOR THE EAST AFTER MIDNIGHT...THEN RETURNING TO THE
SOUTHWEST OR WEST DURING THE AFTERNOON SATURDAY.

SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA AND SOUTHWEST ARIZONA INCLUDING KIPL AND
KBLH...

VERY LITTLE THREAT FOR SHOWERS OR STORMS FOR THE REST OF
TONIGHT...WITH ONLY SOME MID/HI LEVEL DEBRIS CLOUDS EXPECTED TO
DRIFT INTO THE AREA. BETTER CHANCES FOR THICK DEBRIS DECKS AT KBLH.
BY MID MORNING SATURDAY SKIES SHOULD BE GENLY SUNNY. NO STRONG WINDS
ARE EXPECTED NEXT 24 HOURS...AND THEY SHOULD FAVOR THE SOUTH AT KBLH
AND THE WEST AT KIPL.

AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDED TAFS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...
MONSOONAL MOISTURE WILL SLOWLY BEGIN TO THIN ACROSS THE AREA...FIRST
ACROSS THE WESTERN FIRE DISTRICTS AND EVENTUALLY INTO THE ENTIRE
LOWER DESERT ELEVATIONS AND REGION BY EARLY NEXT WEEK. THIS WILL
RELEGATE STORM CHANCES BACK TOWARDS THE HIGHER TERRAIN AND FURTHER
TO THE EAST ACROSS AZ. MINIMUM RH VALUES WILL BEGIN TO SETTLE INTO
THE TEENS WHILE MAKING MOSTLY MODEST TO FAIR OVERNIGHT RECOVERIES.
THE SLIGHTLY DRIER AIRMASS AND BUILDING UPPER RIDGE HEIGHTS WILL
LEND THEMSELVES TOWARD WARMER SFC CONDITIONS...AT OR ABOVE SEASONAL
NORMALS. WINDS WILL FOLLOW FAMILIAR WARM SEASON PATTERNS. BY MIDWEEK
A SUBTLE RETURN OF GULF MOISTURE MAY BOOST AREA HUMIDITIES...BUT NOT
LINGER MUCH THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT CONDITIONS ACCORDING TO STANDARD
OPERATING PROCEDURES.

&&

.PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AZ...NONE.
CA...NONE.
&&

$$

VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/PHOENIX

DISCUSSION...DEWEY
AVIATION...CB
FIRE WEATHER...NOLTE




000
FXUS65 KTWC 011035
AFDTWC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ
335 AM MST SAT AUG 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...ENOUGH MOISTURE WILL LINGER TODAY TO BRING A CHANCE OF
MAINLY AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO MUCH OF
SOUTHEAST ARIZONA. THEREAFTER A DRYING TREND WILL OCCUR WHICH WILL
RESULT IN MORE ISOLATED SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY CONFINED
MAINLY TO AREAS SOUTH AND EAST OF TUCSON.

&&

.DISCUSSION...IR SATELLITE LOOPS SHOW GRADUALLY CLEARING SKIES
ACROSS SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA...WITH MOSTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS
ELSEWHERE AS OVERNIGHT CONVECTIVE DEBRIS CONTINUES TO THIN. SURFACE
OBSERVATIONS FROM AROUND THE REGION EARLY THIS MORNING SHOW
DEWPOINTS GENERALLY IN THE LOW TO MID 60S F...MORE OR LESS UNCHANGED
FROM 24 HOURS AGO (PERHAPS A SHADE DRIER)...WITH AN IMPRESSIVE 71 F
DEWPOINT AT KPHX THANKS IN PART TO EARLIER SHOWERS AND STORMS. THE
CIRA PRECIPITABLE WATER PRODUCT SHOWS THAT WE`RE STILL QUITE MOIST
THROUGH THE ATMOSPHERIC COLUMN...WITH PW VALUES OF AROUND 1.3-1.4
INCHES NEAR TUCSON AND A TOUCH HIGHER TO THE WEST.

ALOFT...LATEST ANALYSES REVEAL A PRETTY CHAOTIC UPPER-AIR
PATTERN...WITH SEVERAL HIGH PRESSURE CENTERS STRUNG OUT ACROSS THE
GREAT BASIN AND SOUTHEASTWARD INTO THE TRANS-PECOS REGION OF TEXAS.
WATER VAPOR LOOPS IMPLY A LOCAL ENHANCEMENT TO THE UPPER-LEVEL FLOW
PUNCHING INTO CENTRAL PORTIONS OF THE BAJA PENINSULA AND GULF OF
CALIFORNIA...WHICH IS BACKED-UP BY THE LATEST RAP ANALYSIS. THE NOSE
OF THIS SUBTLE JET STREAK MAY PLAY A ROLE IN INITIATING CONVECTION
LATER TODAY ACROSS CENTRAL AND POSSIBLY WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA.

SOME ISSUES TO CONTEND WITH FOR TODAY`S FORECAST REVOLVE AROUND
SLIGHTLY WARMER MID-LEVEL TEMPERATURES...POSSIBLE ISSUES WITH ANVIL
SHADING OWING TO A SOUTH TO SOUTHEASTERLY STEERING FLOW...AND THE
WIDE VARIETY OF SOLUTIONS OFFERED UP BY VARIOUS CONVECTIVE ALLOWING
MODELS. HOWEVER...BOTH THE 05Z RUN OF THE HRRRX (EXPERIMENTAL HRRR)
AND THE 00Z UNIV. OF AZ WRF-NAM SOLUTIONS PAINT A FAIRLY SIMILAR
PICTURE FOR TODAY...WITH THE MAIN CONVECTIVE FOCUS ACROSS PARTS OF
PINAL...PIMA...AND SANTA CRUZ COUNTIES AND GENERALLY MORE ISOLATED
COVERAGE OUT EAST. THESE SOLUTIONS GENERALLY LINE UP WITH THE RECENT
RUNS OF THE NAM/GFS WHICH SHOW THE BEST INSTABILITY LINING UP FROM
TUCSON AND POINTS WEST...EFFECTIVELY WITHIN THE ZONE OF HIGHER PW
AIR AS MENTIONED EARLIER.

FOR SUNDAY AND BEYOND...THE GENERAL PATTERN IS FORECAST TO BEGIN A
RE-ORGANIZATION PHASE AS THE UPPER-HIGH RECONSOLIDATES...EVENTUALLY
NEAR THE FOUR-CORNERS REGION BY THE MIDDLE TO END OF NEXT WEEK. IN
THE MEAN TIME...SOUTHWESTERLY OR WESTERLY MID-LEVEL FLOW WILL USHER
DRIER AIR INTO THE AREA WHICH WILL RESULT IN MARKEDLY REDUCED
PRECIPITATION CHANCES...PARTICULARLY BY TUESDAY. THEREAFTER...MORE
FAVORABLE SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW SHOULD ONCE AGAIN BEGIN TO PUMP
MOISTURE...AND AS A RESULT SOMEWHAT BETTER SHOWER AND STORM
COVERAGE...BACK INTO THE REGION. THE ROLLER COASTER RIDE THAT IS THE
MONSOON 2015 CONTINUES...

&&

.AVIATION...VALID THRU 02/12Z.
DECREASING CLOUD COVER THIS MORNING. SCT TO BKN CLOUDS 7-10K FT AGL
RE-DEVELOPING DURING THE LATE-MORNING ALONG WITH ISOLD-SCT SHRA/TSRA
DEVELOPING AFTER 01/19Z. THE GREATEST COVERAGE TODAY LOOKS TO OCCUR
NEAR THE KTUS AND KOLS TERMINALS AND NEAR THE HIGH TERRAIN NORTHEAST
OF KSAD. BRIEF MVFR CONDITIONS WITH ERRATIC WIND GUSTS TO 40 KTS
POSSIBLE IN AND AROUND THE STRONGER TSRA. OUTSIDE OF STORM
INFLUENCES SFC WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE LESS THAN 12 KTS WITH A FEW
HIGHER GUSTS IN THE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING HOURS. AVIATION
DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR TAF AMENDMENTS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...ENOUGH MOISTURE WILL LINGER TODAY FOR A CHANCE OF
AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITH THE GREATEST
COVERAGE FROM NEAR TUCSON AND POINTS WEST. THEN...MORE SOUTHWESTERLY
WINDS ALOFT ON SUNDAY WILL BRING DRIER AIR INTO THE REGION FOR
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE TO BEGIN NEXT
WEEK...WITH A FOCUS MAINLY SOUTH AND EAST OF TUCSON. OUTSIDE OF
THUNDERSTORM WIND GUSTS...20-FT WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE TERRAIN
DRIVEN AND LESS THAN 15 MPH. HOWEVER SOME AFTERNOON AND EARLY
EVENING BREEZINESS IS LIKELY DUE TO DAYTIME HEATING...ESPECIALLY
THROUGH THE GILA VALLEY NEAR SAFFORD.

&&

.TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

CARLAW

VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...YOUTUBE...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/TUCSON




000
FXUS65 KTWC 011035
AFDTWC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ
335 AM MST SAT AUG 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...ENOUGH MOISTURE WILL LINGER TODAY TO BRING A CHANCE OF
MAINLY AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO MUCH OF
SOUTHEAST ARIZONA. THEREAFTER A DRYING TREND WILL OCCUR WHICH WILL
RESULT IN MORE ISOLATED SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY CONFINED
MAINLY TO AREAS SOUTH AND EAST OF TUCSON.

&&

.DISCUSSION...IR SATELLITE LOOPS SHOW GRADUALLY CLEARING SKIES
ACROSS SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA...WITH MOSTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS
ELSEWHERE AS OVERNIGHT CONVECTIVE DEBRIS CONTINUES TO THIN. SURFACE
OBSERVATIONS FROM AROUND THE REGION EARLY THIS MORNING SHOW
DEWPOINTS GENERALLY IN THE LOW TO MID 60S F...MORE OR LESS UNCHANGED
FROM 24 HOURS AGO (PERHAPS A SHADE DRIER)...WITH AN IMPRESSIVE 71 F
DEWPOINT AT KPHX THANKS IN PART TO EARLIER SHOWERS AND STORMS. THE
CIRA PRECIPITABLE WATER PRODUCT SHOWS THAT WE`RE STILL QUITE MOIST
THROUGH THE ATMOSPHERIC COLUMN...WITH PW VALUES OF AROUND 1.3-1.4
INCHES NEAR TUCSON AND A TOUCH HIGHER TO THE WEST.

ALOFT...LATEST ANALYSES REVEAL A PRETTY CHAOTIC UPPER-AIR
PATTERN...WITH SEVERAL HIGH PRESSURE CENTERS STRUNG OUT ACROSS THE
GREAT BASIN AND SOUTHEASTWARD INTO THE TRANS-PECOS REGION OF TEXAS.
WATER VAPOR LOOPS IMPLY A LOCAL ENHANCEMENT TO THE UPPER-LEVEL FLOW
PUNCHING INTO CENTRAL PORTIONS OF THE BAJA PENINSULA AND GULF OF
CALIFORNIA...WHICH IS BACKED-UP BY THE LATEST RAP ANALYSIS. THE NOSE
OF THIS SUBTLE JET STREAK MAY PLAY A ROLE IN INITIATING CONVECTION
LATER TODAY ACROSS CENTRAL AND POSSIBLY WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA.

SOME ISSUES TO CONTEND WITH FOR TODAY`S FORECAST REVOLVE AROUND
SLIGHTLY WARMER MID-LEVEL TEMPERATURES...POSSIBLE ISSUES WITH ANVIL
SHADING OWING TO A SOUTH TO SOUTHEASTERLY STEERING FLOW...AND THE
WIDE VARIETY OF SOLUTIONS OFFERED UP BY VARIOUS CONVECTIVE ALLOWING
MODELS. HOWEVER...BOTH THE 05Z RUN OF THE HRRRX (EXPERIMENTAL HRRR)
AND THE 00Z UNIV. OF AZ WRF-NAM SOLUTIONS PAINT A FAIRLY SIMILAR
PICTURE FOR TODAY...WITH THE MAIN CONVECTIVE FOCUS ACROSS PARTS OF
PINAL...PIMA...AND SANTA CRUZ COUNTIES AND GENERALLY MORE ISOLATED
COVERAGE OUT EAST. THESE SOLUTIONS GENERALLY LINE UP WITH THE RECENT
RUNS OF THE NAM/GFS WHICH SHOW THE BEST INSTABILITY LINING UP FROM
TUCSON AND POINTS WEST...EFFECTIVELY WITHIN THE ZONE OF HIGHER PW
AIR AS MENTIONED EARLIER.

FOR SUNDAY AND BEYOND...THE GENERAL PATTERN IS FORECAST TO BEGIN A
RE-ORGANIZATION PHASE AS THE UPPER-HIGH RECONSOLIDATES...EVENTUALLY
NEAR THE FOUR-CORNERS REGION BY THE MIDDLE TO END OF NEXT WEEK. IN
THE MEAN TIME...SOUTHWESTERLY OR WESTERLY MID-LEVEL FLOW WILL USHER
DRIER AIR INTO THE AREA WHICH WILL RESULT IN MARKEDLY REDUCED
PRECIPITATION CHANCES...PARTICULARLY BY TUESDAY. THEREAFTER...MORE
FAVORABLE SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW SHOULD ONCE AGAIN BEGIN TO PUMP
MOISTURE...AND AS A RESULT SOMEWHAT BETTER SHOWER AND STORM
COVERAGE...BACK INTO THE REGION. THE ROLLER COASTER RIDE THAT IS THE
MONSOON 2015 CONTINUES...

&&

.AVIATION...VALID THRU 02/12Z.
DECREASING CLOUD COVER THIS MORNING. SCT TO BKN CLOUDS 7-10K FT AGL
RE-DEVELOPING DURING THE LATE-MORNING ALONG WITH ISOLD-SCT SHRA/TSRA
DEVELOPING AFTER 01/19Z. THE GREATEST COVERAGE TODAY LOOKS TO OCCUR
NEAR THE KTUS AND KOLS TERMINALS AND NEAR THE HIGH TERRAIN NORTHEAST
OF KSAD. BRIEF MVFR CONDITIONS WITH ERRATIC WIND GUSTS TO 40 KTS
POSSIBLE IN AND AROUND THE STRONGER TSRA. OUTSIDE OF STORM
INFLUENCES SFC WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE LESS THAN 12 KTS WITH A FEW
HIGHER GUSTS IN THE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING HOURS. AVIATION
DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR TAF AMENDMENTS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...ENOUGH MOISTURE WILL LINGER TODAY FOR A CHANCE OF
AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITH THE GREATEST
COVERAGE FROM NEAR TUCSON AND POINTS WEST. THEN...MORE SOUTHWESTERLY
WINDS ALOFT ON SUNDAY WILL BRING DRIER AIR INTO THE REGION FOR
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE TO BEGIN NEXT
WEEK...WITH A FOCUS MAINLY SOUTH AND EAST OF TUCSON. OUTSIDE OF
THUNDERSTORM WIND GUSTS...20-FT WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE TERRAIN
DRIVEN AND LESS THAN 15 MPH. HOWEVER SOME AFTERNOON AND EARLY
EVENING BREEZINESS IS LIKELY DUE TO DAYTIME HEATING...ESPECIALLY
THROUGH THE GILA VALLEY NEAR SAFFORD.

&&

.TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

CARLAW

VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...YOUTUBE...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/TUCSON



000
FXUS65 KFGZ 011026
AFDFGZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ
326 AM MST SAT AUG 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...DEEP MOISTURE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS NORTHERN
ARIZONA TODAY WITH SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
EXPECTED. A SLIGHT DECREASE IN ACTIVITY IS FORECAST ON SUNDAY AND
THEN DRIER AIR MOVING IN FROM THE WEST WILL BRING DRIER
CONDITIONS FOR THE FIRST PART OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...AN ACTIVE SUMMER MONSOON PATTERN WILL CONTINUE
ACROSS NORTHERN ARIZONA TODAY. MOIST SOUTHERLY FLOW CONTINUES TO
STREAM ACROSS THE STATE AS MID LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS
SITUATED TO OUR EAST OVER NEW MEXICO AND TEXAS. LIGHT SHOWER
ACTIVITY HAS BEEN DEVELOPING THIS MORNING FROM CENTRAL INTO
NORTHERN ARIZONA AHEAD OF AN INVERTED TROUGH FEATURE OVER
SOUTHWEST ARIZONA. THIS TROUGH LIFTS NORTH TODAY ACROSS WESTERN
PORTIONS OF THE STATE. WEAK LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROUGH WILL
CONTINUE TO FUEL SHOWERS THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS...FAVORING
WESTERN ARIZONA. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE THEN EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH EVENING. AREAS WITH LESS MORNING CLOUD
COVER WILL SEE EARLIER DEVELOPMENT WHILE CLOUDED OVER AREAS THIS
MORNING WILL LIKELY SEE LATER DEVELOPMENT. STORM MOTION TODAY WILL
BE FROM SOUTH TO NORTH AT ABOUT 10-15 MPH. LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN WILL
BE THE GREATEST THREAT FROM STORMS TODAY.

THE TROUGH WILL ROTATE THROUGH NORTHWEST ARIZONA AND INTO SOUTHERN
NEVADA TONIGHT. THIS MAY PROLONG SHOWER ACTIVITY THIS EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT AND HAVE KEPT THE CHANCE FOR STORMS IN THE FORECAST
THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.

A SOLID SOUTHWEST FLOW DEVELOPS ON MONDAY AND THE WESTERLY
COMPONENT TO THE WIND HELPS DRAW DRIER AIR INTO ARIZONA. A PRETTY
STOUT BREAK IN MONSOON THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED ON
MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY FOR ALL EXCEPT THE WHITE MOUNTAINS WHICH
WILL CONTINUE TO SEE A CHANCE FOR STORMS. MOISTURE LOOKS TO MAKE A
RETURN BY THURSDAY OF NEXT WEEK WHEN STORM CHANCES WILL INCREASE
ONCE AGAIN ACROSS NORTHERN ARIZONA.

&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 12Z PACKAGE...EXPECT RAIN SHOWERS AND A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS TO CONTINUE ACROSS PORTIONS OF NORTHERN ARIZONA
THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS. THE GREATEST SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM
COVERAGE WILL BE ALONG AND WEST OF A LINE FROM KPGA-KFLG-KPRC. THE
GREATEST IMPACTS TO AVIATION WILL BE LOCAL MVFR/IFR IN HEAVY RAIN.
AFTER 17Z SATURDAY...GOOD CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL
DEVELOP ACROSS ALL OF NORTHERN ARIZONA. MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS WILL BE
POSSIBLE IN LOW CEILINGS AND VISIBILITY WITH THE STRONGER STORMS.
AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDMENTS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...AN ACTIVE MONSOON PATTERN WILL CONTINUE ACROSS
NORTHERN ARIZONA INTO THIS WEEKEND. EXPECT SCATTERED AFTERNOON AND
EVENING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. DRIER AIR WILL START TO MOVE INTO
WESTERN ARIZONA STARTING SUNDAY.

.MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...A DRIER SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO
MOVE OVER NORTHERN ARIZONA WITH DECREASING MONSOON MOISTURE AND
CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. FEWER STORMS ARE EXPECTED EACH
DAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

WE WILL BE DISCONTINUING THE FIRE WEATHER SECTION OF OUR FORECAST
DISCUSSION UNTIL NEXT YEAR. PLEASE SEE OUR FIRE WEATHER ZONE
FORECAST PRODUCT (FWFFGZ) FOR FUTURE FIRE WEATHER DISCUSSIONS.

&&

.FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC...MCS
AVIATION...RR
FIRE WEATHER...RR


FOR NORTHERN ARIZONA WEATHER INFORMATION VISIT
WEATHER.GOV/FLAGSTAFF



000
FXUS65 KFGZ 011026
AFDFGZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ
326 AM MST SAT AUG 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...DEEP MOISTURE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS NORTHERN
ARIZONA TODAY WITH SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
EXPECTED. A SLIGHT DECREASE IN ACTIVITY IS FORECAST ON SUNDAY AND
THEN DRIER AIR MOVING IN FROM THE WEST WILL BRING DRIER
CONDITIONS FOR THE FIRST PART OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...AN ACTIVE SUMMER MONSOON PATTERN WILL CONTINUE
ACROSS NORTHERN ARIZONA TODAY. MOIST SOUTHERLY FLOW CONTINUES TO
STREAM ACROSS THE STATE AS MID LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS
SITUATED TO OUR EAST OVER NEW MEXICO AND TEXAS. LIGHT SHOWER
ACTIVITY HAS BEEN DEVELOPING THIS MORNING FROM CENTRAL INTO
NORTHERN ARIZONA AHEAD OF AN INVERTED TROUGH FEATURE OVER
SOUTHWEST ARIZONA. THIS TROUGH LIFTS NORTH TODAY ACROSS WESTERN
PORTIONS OF THE STATE. WEAK LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROUGH WILL
CONTINUE TO FUEL SHOWERS THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS...FAVORING
WESTERN ARIZONA. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE THEN EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH EVENING. AREAS WITH LESS MORNING CLOUD
COVER WILL SEE EARLIER DEVELOPMENT WHILE CLOUDED OVER AREAS THIS
MORNING WILL LIKELY SEE LATER DEVELOPMENT. STORM MOTION TODAY WILL
BE FROM SOUTH TO NORTH AT ABOUT 10-15 MPH. LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN WILL
BE THE GREATEST THREAT FROM STORMS TODAY.

THE TROUGH WILL ROTATE THROUGH NORTHWEST ARIZONA AND INTO SOUTHERN
NEVADA TONIGHT. THIS MAY PROLONG SHOWER ACTIVITY THIS EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT AND HAVE KEPT THE CHANCE FOR STORMS IN THE FORECAST
THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.

A SOLID SOUTHWEST FLOW DEVELOPS ON MONDAY AND THE WESTERLY
COMPONENT TO THE WIND HELPS DRAW DRIER AIR INTO ARIZONA. A PRETTY
STOUT BREAK IN MONSOON THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED ON
MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY FOR ALL EXCEPT THE WHITE MOUNTAINS WHICH
WILL CONTINUE TO SEE A CHANCE FOR STORMS. MOISTURE LOOKS TO MAKE A
RETURN BY THURSDAY OF NEXT WEEK WHEN STORM CHANCES WILL INCREASE
ONCE AGAIN ACROSS NORTHERN ARIZONA.

&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 12Z PACKAGE...EXPECT RAIN SHOWERS AND A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS TO CONTINUE ACROSS PORTIONS OF NORTHERN ARIZONA
THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS. THE GREATEST SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM
COVERAGE WILL BE ALONG AND WEST OF A LINE FROM KPGA-KFLG-KPRC. THE
GREATEST IMPACTS TO AVIATION WILL BE LOCAL MVFR/IFR IN HEAVY RAIN.
AFTER 17Z SATURDAY...GOOD CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL
DEVELOP ACROSS ALL OF NORTHERN ARIZONA. MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS WILL BE
POSSIBLE IN LOW CEILINGS AND VISIBILITY WITH THE STRONGER STORMS.
AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDMENTS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...AN ACTIVE MONSOON PATTERN WILL CONTINUE ACROSS
NORTHERN ARIZONA INTO THIS WEEKEND. EXPECT SCATTERED AFTERNOON AND
EVENING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. DRIER AIR WILL START TO MOVE INTO
WESTERN ARIZONA STARTING SUNDAY.

.MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...A DRIER SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO
MOVE OVER NORTHERN ARIZONA WITH DECREASING MONSOON MOISTURE AND
CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. FEWER STORMS ARE EXPECTED EACH
DAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

WE WILL BE DISCONTINUING THE FIRE WEATHER SECTION OF OUR FORECAST
DISCUSSION UNTIL NEXT YEAR. PLEASE SEE OUR FIRE WEATHER ZONE
FORECAST PRODUCT (FWFFGZ) FOR FUTURE FIRE WEATHER DISCUSSIONS.

&&

.FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC...MCS
AVIATION...RR
FIRE WEATHER...RR


FOR NORTHERN ARIZONA WEATHER INFORMATION VISIT
WEATHER.GOV/FLAGSTAFF



000
FXUS65 KFGZ 011026
AFDFGZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ
326 AM MST SAT AUG 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...DEEP MOISTURE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS NORTHERN
ARIZONA TODAY WITH SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
EXPECTED. A SLIGHT DECREASE IN ACTIVITY IS FORECAST ON SUNDAY AND
THEN DRIER AIR MOVING IN FROM THE WEST WILL BRING DRIER
CONDITIONS FOR THE FIRST PART OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...AN ACTIVE SUMMER MONSOON PATTERN WILL CONTINUE
ACROSS NORTHERN ARIZONA TODAY. MOIST SOUTHERLY FLOW CONTINUES TO
STREAM ACROSS THE STATE AS MID LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS
SITUATED TO OUR EAST OVER NEW MEXICO AND TEXAS. LIGHT SHOWER
ACTIVITY HAS BEEN DEVELOPING THIS MORNING FROM CENTRAL INTO
NORTHERN ARIZONA AHEAD OF AN INVERTED TROUGH FEATURE OVER
SOUTHWEST ARIZONA. THIS TROUGH LIFTS NORTH TODAY ACROSS WESTERN
PORTIONS OF THE STATE. WEAK LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROUGH WILL
CONTINUE TO FUEL SHOWERS THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS...FAVORING
WESTERN ARIZONA. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE THEN EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH EVENING. AREAS WITH LESS MORNING CLOUD
COVER WILL SEE EARLIER DEVELOPMENT WHILE CLOUDED OVER AREAS THIS
MORNING WILL LIKELY SEE LATER DEVELOPMENT. STORM MOTION TODAY WILL
BE FROM SOUTH TO NORTH AT ABOUT 10-15 MPH. LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN WILL
BE THE GREATEST THREAT FROM STORMS TODAY.

THE TROUGH WILL ROTATE THROUGH NORTHWEST ARIZONA AND INTO SOUTHERN
NEVADA TONIGHT. THIS MAY PROLONG SHOWER ACTIVITY THIS EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT AND HAVE KEPT THE CHANCE FOR STORMS IN THE FORECAST
THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.

A SOLID SOUTHWEST FLOW DEVELOPS ON MONDAY AND THE WESTERLY
COMPONENT TO THE WIND HELPS DRAW DRIER AIR INTO ARIZONA. A PRETTY
STOUT BREAK IN MONSOON THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED ON
MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY FOR ALL EXCEPT THE WHITE MOUNTAINS WHICH
WILL CONTINUE TO SEE A CHANCE FOR STORMS. MOISTURE LOOKS TO MAKE A
RETURN BY THURSDAY OF NEXT WEEK WHEN STORM CHANCES WILL INCREASE
ONCE AGAIN ACROSS NORTHERN ARIZONA.

&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 12Z PACKAGE...EXPECT RAIN SHOWERS AND A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS TO CONTINUE ACROSS PORTIONS OF NORTHERN ARIZONA
THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS. THE GREATEST SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM
COVERAGE WILL BE ALONG AND WEST OF A LINE FROM KPGA-KFLG-KPRC. THE
GREATEST IMPACTS TO AVIATION WILL BE LOCAL MVFR/IFR IN HEAVY RAIN.
AFTER 17Z SATURDAY...GOOD CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL
DEVELOP ACROSS ALL OF NORTHERN ARIZONA. MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS WILL BE
POSSIBLE IN LOW CEILINGS AND VISIBILITY WITH THE STRONGER STORMS.
AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDMENTS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...AN ACTIVE MONSOON PATTERN WILL CONTINUE ACROSS
NORTHERN ARIZONA INTO THIS WEEKEND. EXPECT SCATTERED AFTERNOON AND
EVENING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. DRIER AIR WILL START TO MOVE INTO
WESTERN ARIZONA STARTING SUNDAY.

.MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...A DRIER SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO
MOVE OVER NORTHERN ARIZONA WITH DECREASING MONSOON MOISTURE AND
CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. FEWER STORMS ARE EXPECTED EACH
DAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

WE WILL BE DISCONTINUING THE FIRE WEATHER SECTION OF OUR FORECAST
DISCUSSION UNTIL NEXT YEAR. PLEASE SEE OUR FIRE WEATHER ZONE
FORECAST PRODUCT (FWFFGZ) FOR FUTURE FIRE WEATHER DISCUSSIONS.

&&

.FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC...MCS
AVIATION...RR
FIRE WEATHER...RR


FOR NORTHERN ARIZONA WEATHER INFORMATION VISIT
WEATHER.GOV/FLAGSTAFF



000
FXUS65 KFGZ 011026
AFDFGZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ
326 AM MST SAT AUG 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...DEEP MOISTURE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS NORTHERN
ARIZONA TODAY WITH SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
EXPECTED. A SLIGHT DECREASE IN ACTIVITY IS FORECAST ON SUNDAY AND
THEN DRIER AIR MOVING IN FROM THE WEST WILL BRING DRIER
CONDITIONS FOR THE FIRST PART OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...AN ACTIVE SUMMER MONSOON PATTERN WILL CONTINUE
ACROSS NORTHERN ARIZONA TODAY. MOIST SOUTHERLY FLOW CONTINUES TO
STREAM ACROSS THE STATE AS MID LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS
SITUATED TO OUR EAST OVER NEW MEXICO AND TEXAS. LIGHT SHOWER
ACTIVITY HAS BEEN DEVELOPING THIS MORNING FROM CENTRAL INTO
NORTHERN ARIZONA AHEAD OF AN INVERTED TROUGH FEATURE OVER
SOUTHWEST ARIZONA. THIS TROUGH LIFTS NORTH TODAY ACROSS WESTERN
PORTIONS OF THE STATE. WEAK LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROUGH WILL
CONTINUE TO FUEL SHOWERS THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS...FAVORING
WESTERN ARIZONA. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE THEN EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH EVENING. AREAS WITH LESS MORNING CLOUD
COVER WILL SEE EARLIER DEVELOPMENT WHILE CLOUDED OVER AREAS THIS
MORNING WILL LIKELY SEE LATER DEVELOPMENT. STORM MOTION TODAY WILL
BE FROM SOUTH TO NORTH AT ABOUT 10-15 MPH. LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN WILL
BE THE GREATEST THREAT FROM STORMS TODAY.

THE TROUGH WILL ROTATE THROUGH NORTHWEST ARIZONA AND INTO SOUTHERN
NEVADA TONIGHT. THIS MAY PROLONG SHOWER ACTIVITY THIS EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT AND HAVE KEPT THE CHANCE FOR STORMS IN THE FORECAST
THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.

A SOLID SOUTHWEST FLOW DEVELOPS ON MONDAY AND THE WESTERLY
COMPONENT TO THE WIND HELPS DRAW DRIER AIR INTO ARIZONA. A PRETTY
STOUT BREAK IN MONSOON THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED ON
MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY FOR ALL EXCEPT THE WHITE MOUNTAINS WHICH
WILL CONTINUE TO SEE A CHANCE FOR STORMS. MOISTURE LOOKS TO MAKE A
RETURN BY THURSDAY OF NEXT WEEK WHEN STORM CHANCES WILL INCREASE
ONCE AGAIN ACROSS NORTHERN ARIZONA.

&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 12Z PACKAGE...EXPECT RAIN SHOWERS AND A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS TO CONTINUE ACROSS PORTIONS OF NORTHERN ARIZONA
THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS. THE GREATEST SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM
COVERAGE WILL BE ALONG AND WEST OF A LINE FROM KPGA-KFLG-KPRC. THE
GREATEST IMPACTS TO AVIATION WILL BE LOCAL MVFR/IFR IN HEAVY RAIN.
AFTER 17Z SATURDAY...GOOD CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL
DEVELOP ACROSS ALL OF NORTHERN ARIZONA. MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS WILL BE
POSSIBLE IN LOW CEILINGS AND VISIBILITY WITH THE STRONGER STORMS.
AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDMENTS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...AN ACTIVE MONSOON PATTERN WILL CONTINUE ACROSS
NORTHERN ARIZONA INTO THIS WEEKEND. EXPECT SCATTERED AFTERNOON AND
EVENING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. DRIER AIR WILL START TO MOVE INTO
WESTERN ARIZONA STARTING SUNDAY.

.MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...A DRIER SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO
MOVE OVER NORTHERN ARIZONA WITH DECREASING MONSOON MOISTURE AND
CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. FEWER STORMS ARE EXPECTED EACH
DAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

WE WILL BE DISCONTINUING THE FIRE WEATHER SECTION OF OUR FORECAST
DISCUSSION UNTIL NEXT YEAR. PLEASE SEE OUR FIRE WEATHER ZONE
FORECAST PRODUCT (FWFFGZ) FOR FUTURE FIRE WEATHER DISCUSSIONS.

&&

.FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC...MCS
AVIATION...RR
FIRE WEATHER...RR


FOR NORTHERN ARIZONA WEATHER INFORMATION VISIT
WEATHER.GOV/FLAGSTAFF



000
FXUS65 KFGZ 010503
AFDFGZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ
1003 PM MST FRI JUL 31 2015

.SYNOPSIS...DEEP MOISTURE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH SATURDAY.
STORM COVERAGE WILL LIKELY PEAK EACH AFTERNOON BEFORE DIMINISHING
AFTER SUNSET. EXPECT SLIGHTLY LESS ACTIVITY ON SUNDAY AND A STEADY
DECREASE NEXT WEEK AS DRY AIR MOVES IN FROM THE WEST.

&&

.DISCUSSION...SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE TO DEVELOP
ACROSS PORTIONS OF NORTHERN ARIZONA THIS EVENING IN A SWATH FROM
THE GRAND CANYON EASTWARD TO THE FOUR CORNERS REGION. A WEAK UPPER
LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE UP FROM THE SOUTH ACROSS WESTERN
ARIZONA THIS EVENING POSSIBLY ENHANCING OVERNIGHT SHOWER ACTIVITY.
TONIGHTS PRECIPITATION CHANCES LOOK GOOD. NO EVENING UPDATES
NEEDED.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION /333 PM MST/...IT WAS AN ACTIVE DAY ACROSS
ARIZONA WITH SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS. THE STORMS WERE NOT MOVING
VERY FAST SO THERE WAS LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN. MOIST AIR WILL REMAIN
IN PLACE ACROSS NORTHERN ARIZONA THROUGH SATURDAY WITH ANOTHER
ACTIVE DAY EXPECTED.

FROM SUNDAY AND MONDAY...A DRY SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL START TO MOVE
INTO ARIZONA WITH DECREASING CHANCES FOR STORMS FROM WEST TO EAST.

TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...THE DRY SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL MOVE OVER MOST
OF NORTHERN ARIZONA WITH SLIGHT CHANCES OF STORMS FOR ALL OF
NORTHERN ARIZONA WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE WHITE MOUNTAINS.

BY THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...MOISTURE RAPIDLY RETURNS TO NORTHERN
ARIZONA FROM THE SOUTH WITH CHANCES OF STORMS INCREASING.

&&

.AVIATION...CHANCES FOR SOME SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS WILL
CONTINUE OVERNIGHT. THE GREATEST IMPACTS TO AVIATION WILL BE
LOCAL MVFR/IFR IN HEAVY RAIN. STORM COVERAGE WILL INCREASE AGAIN AFTER
AROUND 17Z SATURDAY. AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR
AMENDMENTS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...AN ACTIVE MONSOON PATTERN WILL CONTINUE ACROSS
NORTHERN ARIZONA INTO THIS WEEKEND. EXPECT SCATTERED AFTERNOON AND
EVENING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. DRIER AIR WILL START TO MOVE INTO
WESTERN ARIZONA STARTING SUNDAY.

.MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...A DRIER SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO
MOVE OVER NORTHERN ARIZONA WITH DECREASING MONSOON MOISTURE AND
CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. FEWER STORMS ARE EXPECTED EACH
DAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

&&

.FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC...BOHLIN/MAS
AVIATION...BOHLIN
FIRE WEATHER...MAS


FOR NORTHERN ARIZONA WEATHER INFORMATION VISIT
WEATHER.GOV/FLAGSTAFF



000
FXUS65 KTWC 010429
AFDTWC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ
927 PM MST FRI JUL 31 2015

.SYNOPSIS...ALTHOUGH SOME DRIER AIR WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA THIS
WEEKEND INTO NEXT WEEK...THERE WILL BE ENOUGH MOISTURE AROUND FOR A
CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...MAINLY ALONG THE INTERNATIONAL
BORDER AS WELL AS THE MOUNTAIN TOPS.

&&

.DISCUSSION...A DISTURBANCE TRACKING NORTHWARD INTO SOUTHERN ARIZONA
CONTINUED TO HELP SUSTAIN THE SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY LATE
THIS EVENING. LATEST HRRR SOLUTION INDICATED THAT THIS ACTIVITY WILL
GRADUALLY DIMINISH TONIGHT AS THE DISTURBANCE LIFTS FARTHER NORTH.
RECENT RADAR IMAGERY ALSO INDICATED A DOWNWARD TREND IN THE
INTENSITY AND AREAL COVERAGE. CURRENT FORECAST WAS SHOWING THESE
TRENDS...SO NO UPDATES NECESSARY THIS EVENING. PLEASE REFER TO THE
ADDITIONAL SECTIONS FOR MORE DETAILS.

&&

.AVIATION...VALID THRU 02/06Z.
SCT TO BKN CLOUDS 7-10K FT AGL WITH SCT-NMRS SHRA/TSRA GENERALLY
BEFORE 01/10Z. BRIEF MVFR CONDITIONS WITH ERRATIC WIND GUSTS TO 45
KTS POSSIBLE IN AND AROUND THE STRONGER TSRA. AREAS OF BLDU PSBL W
AND NW OF KTUS AFT 31/22Z. OUTSIDE OF STORM INFLUENCES SFC WINDS
WILL GENERALLY BE LESS THAN 12 KTS WITH A FEW HIGHER GUSTS IN THE
AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING HOURS. SHRA/TSRA WILL OCCUR AGAIN SATURDAY
AFTERNOON...ALTHOUGH WITH LESS COVERAGE THAN TODAY. AVIATION
DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR TAF AMENDMENTS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...SATURDAY WILL SEE SLIGHTLY LESS SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY. INCREASING SW WINDS ALOFT ON SUNDAY WILL
BRING DRIER AIR INTO THE REGION FOR ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE TO BEGIN NEXT WEEK...WITH A FOCUS MAINLY SOUTH
AND EAST OF TUCSON. OUTSIDE OF THUNDERSTORM WIND GUSTS...20-FT WINDS
WILL GENERALLY BE TERRAIN DRIVEN AND LESS THAN 15 MPH. HOWEVER SOME
AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING BREEZINESS IS LIKELY DUE TO DAYTIME
HEATING...ESPECIALLY THROUGH THE GILA VALLEY NEAR SAFFORD.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...MODELS INDICATE THAT A WEAK DISTURBANCE COMING UP
FROM THE SOUTH WILL MOVE ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL ARIZONA THIS EVENING
AND THEN OVER SOUTHWEST ARIZONA EARLY SATURDAY AND WESTERN ARIZONA
MIDDAY SATURDAY. THAT SAID...SATURDAY WE SHOULD SEE LESS
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY AS THIS SYSTEM WILL BE OVER SRN NEVADA LATE IN
THE AFTERNOON AND MOISTURE IS EXPECTED TO DECREASE A BIT LATE IN THE
AFTERNOON OR INTO THE EVENING.

BY SUNDAY AND CONTINUING THROUGH AROUND WEDNESDAY THE HIGH IS
EXPECTED TO RECONSOLIDATE IN A WEST TO EAST ORIENTATION ACROSS
NORTHERN MEXICO AND THEN MOVE NORTH OVER THE DESERT SOUTHWEST BY
TUESDAY. AS A RESULT...DRIER SOUTHWEST TO WEST FLOW WILL REDUCE RAIN
CHANCES A BIT AND KEEP THE BEST THREAT FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS...MAINLY BETWEEN NOGALES AND DOUGLAS AS WELL AS THE
WHITE MOUNTAINS. THIS WILL ALSO RESULT IN WARMER DAYTIME TEMPS
MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

FOR LATE WEEK THE HIGH WILL SHIFT TOWARD THE EAST AND RESULT IN A
RETURN FLOW FROM THE SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST AND PULL IN MORE MOISTURE
AND INCREASING THUNDERSTORM CHANCES...BUT STILL JUST ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED IN NATURE.

FOR TUCSON...HIGHS WILL BE NEAR NORMAL SATURDAY...THEN 4 TO 7 DEGS
ABOVE NORMAL EACH DAY THROUGH FRIDAY. HOWEVER...THE WARMEST DAY WILL
LIKELY OCCUR TUESDAY. LOWS WILL RANGE FROM 2 TO 4 DEGS ABOVE NORMAL
EACH MORNING. HOWEVER...THE COOLEST MORNINGS WILL LIKELY OCCUR
MONDAY AND TUESDAY.

&&

.TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

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000
FXUS65 KTWC 010429
AFDTWC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ
927 PM MST FRI JUL 31 2015

.SYNOPSIS...ALTHOUGH SOME DRIER AIR WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA THIS
WEEKEND INTO NEXT WEEK...THERE WILL BE ENOUGH MOISTURE AROUND FOR A
CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...MAINLY ALONG THE INTERNATIONAL
BORDER AS WELL AS THE MOUNTAIN TOPS.

&&

.DISCUSSION...A DISTURBANCE TRACKING NORTHWARD INTO SOUTHERN ARIZONA
CONTINUED TO HELP SUSTAIN THE SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY LATE
THIS EVENING. LATEST HRRR SOLUTION INDICATED THAT THIS ACTIVITY WILL
GRADUALLY DIMINISH TONIGHT AS THE DISTURBANCE LIFTS FARTHER NORTH.
RECENT RADAR IMAGERY ALSO INDICATED A DOWNWARD TREND IN THE
INTENSITY AND AREAL COVERAGE. CURRENT FORECAST WAS SHOWING THESE
TRENDS...SO NO UPDATES NECESSARY THIS EVENING. PLEASE REFER TO THE
ADDITIONAL SECTIONS FOR MORE DETAILS.

&&

.AVIATION...VALID THRU 02/06Z.
SCT TO BKN CLOUDS 7-10K FT AGL WITH SCT-NMRS SHRA/TSRA GENERALLY
BEFORE 01/10Z. BRIEF MVFR CONDITIONS WITH ERRATIC WIND GUSTS TO 45
KTS POSSIBLE IN AND AROUND THE STRONGER TSRA. AREAS OF BLDU PSBL W
AND NW OF KTUS AFT 31/22Z. OUTSIDE OF STORM INFLUENCES SFC WINDS
WILL GENERALLY BE LESS THAN 12 KTS WITH A FEW HIGHER GUSTS IN THE
AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING HOURS. SHRA/TSRA WILL OCCUR AGAIN SATURDAY
AFTERNOON...ALTHOUGH WITH LESS COVERAGE THAN TODAY. AVIATION
DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR TAF AMENDMENTS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...SATURDAY WILL SEE SLIGHTLY LESS SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY. INCREASING SW WINDS ALOFT ON SUNDAY WILL
BRING DRIER AIR INTO THE REGION FOR ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE TO BEGIN NEXT WEEK...WITH A FOCUS MAINLY SOUTH
AND EAST OF TUCSON. OUTSIDE OF THUNDERSTORM WIND GUSTS...20-FT WINDS
WILL GENERALLY BE TERRAIN DRIVEN AND LESS THAN 15 MPH. HOWEVER SOME
AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING BREEZINESS IS LIKELY DUE TO DAYTIME
HEATING...ESPECIALLY THROUGH THE GILA VALLEY NEAR SAFFORD.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...MODELS INDICATE THAT A WEAK DISTURBANCE COMING UP
FROM THE SOUTH WILL MOVE ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL ARIZONA THIS EVENING
AND THEN OVER SOUTHWEST ARIZONA EARLY SATURDAY AND WESTERN ARIZONA
MIDDAY SATURDAY. THAT SAID...SATURDAY WE SHOULD SEE LESS
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY AS THIS SYSTEM WILL BE OVER SRN NEVADA LATE IN
THE AFTERNOON AND MOISTURE IS EXPECTED TO DECREASE A BIT LATE IN THE
AFTERNOON OR INTO THE EVENING.

BY SUNDAY AND CONTINUING THROUGH AROUND WEDNESDAY THE HIGH IS
EXPECTED TO RECONSOLIDATE IN A WEST TO EAST ORIENTATION ACROSS
NORTHERN MEXICO AND THEN MOVE NORTH OVER THE DESERT SOUTHWEST BY
TUESDAY. AS A RESULT...DRIER SOUTHWEST TO WEST FLOW WILL REDUCE RAIN
CHANCES A BIT AND KEEP THE BEST THREAT FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS...MAINLY BETWEEN NOGALES AND DOUGLAS AS WELL AS THE
WHITE MOUNTAINS. THIS WILL ALSO RESULT IN WARMER DAYTIME TEMPS
MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

FOR LATE WEEK THE HIGH WILL SHIFT TOWARD THE EAST AND RESULT IN A
RETURN FLOW FROM THE SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST AND PULL IN MORE MOISTURE
AND INCREASING THUNDERSTORM CHANCES...BUT STILL JUST ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED IN NATURE.

FOR TUCSON...HIGHS WILL BE NEAR NORMAL SATURDAY...THEN 4 TO 7 DEGS
ABOVE NORMAL EACH DAY THROUGH FRIDAY. HOWEVER...THE WARMEST DAY WILL
LIKELY OCCUR TUESDAY. LOWS WILL RANGE FROM 2 TO 4 DEGS ABOVE NORMAL
EACH MORNING. HOWEVER...THE COOLEST MORNINGS WILL LIKELY OCCUR
MONDAY AND TUESDAY.

&&

.TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...YOUTUBE...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/TUCSON




000
FXUS65 KTWC 010429
AFDTWC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ
927 PM MST FRI JUL 31 2015

.SYNOPSIS...ALTHOUGH SOME DRIER AIR WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA THIS
WEEKEND INTO NEXT WEEK...THERE WILL BE ENOUGH MOISTURE AROUND FOR A
CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...MAINLY ALONG THE INTERNATIONAL
BORDER AS WELL AS THE MOUNTAIN TOPS.

&&

.DISCUSSION...A DISTURBANCE TRACKING NORTHWARD INTO SOUTHERN ARIZONA
CONTINUED TO HELP SUSTAIN THE SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY LATE
THIS EVENING. LATEST HRRR SOLUTION INDICATED THAT THIS ACTIVITY WILL
GRADUALLY DIMINISH TONIGHT AS THE DISTURBANCE LIFTS FARTHER NORTH.
RECENT RADAR IMAGERY ALSO INDICATED A DOWNWARD TREND IN THE
INTENSITY AND AREAL COVERAGE. CURRENT FORECAST WAS SHOWING THESE
TRENDS...SO NO UPDATES NECESSARY THIS EVENING. PLEASE REFER TO THE
ADDITIONAL SECTIONS FOR MORE DETAILS.

&&

.AVIATION...VALID THRU 02/06Z.
SCT TO BKN CLOUDS 7-10K FT AGL WITH SCT-NMRS SHRA/TSRA GENERALLY
BEFORE 01/10Z. BRIEF MVFR CONDITIONS WITH ERRATIC WIND GUSTS TO 45
KTS POSSIBLE IN AND AROUND THE STRONGER TSRA. AREAS OF BLDU PSBL W
AND NW OF KTUS AFT 31/22Z. OUTSIDE OF STORM INFLUENCES SFC WINDS
WILL GENERALLY BE LESS THAN 12 KTS WITH A FEW HIGHER GUSTS IN THE
AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING HOURS. SHRA/TSRA WILL OCCUR AGAIN SATURDAY
AFTERNOON...ALTHOUGH WITH LESS COVERAGE THAN TODAY. AVIATION
DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR TAF AMENDMENTS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...SATURDAY WILL SEE SLIGHTLY LESS SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY. INCREASING SW WINDS ALOFT ON SUNDAY WILL
BRING DRIER AIR INTO THE REGION FOR ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE TO BEGIN NEXT WEEK...WITH A FOCUS MAINLY SOUTH
AND EAST OF TUCSON. OUTSIDE OF THUNDERSTORM WIND GUSTS...20-FT WINDS
WILL GENERALLY BE TERRAIN DRIVEN AND LESS THAN 15 MPH. HOWEVER SOME
AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING BREEZINESS IS LIKELY DUE TO DAYTIME
HEATING...ESPECIALLY THROUGH THE GILA VALLEY NEAR SAFFORD.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...MODELS INDICATE THAT A WEAK DISTURBANCE COMING UP
FROM THE SOUTH WILL MOVE ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL ARIZONA THIS EVENING
AND THEN OVER SOUTHWEST ARIZONA EARLY SATURDAY AND WESTERN ARIZONA
MIDDAY SATURDAY. THAT SAID...SATURDAY WE SHOULD SEE LESS
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY AS THIS SYSTEM WILL BE OVER SRN NEVADA LATE IN
THE AFTERNOON AND MOISTURE IS EXPECTED TO DECREASE A BIT LATE IN THE
AFTERNOON OR INTO THE EVENING.

BY SUNDAY AND CONTINUING THROUGH AROUND WEDNESDAY THE HIGH IS
EXPECTED TO RECONSOLIDATE IN A WEST TO EAST ORIENTATION ACROSS
NORTHERN MEXICO AND THEN MOVE NORTH OVER THE DESERT SOUTHWEST BY
TUESDAY. AS A RESULT...DRIER SOUTHWEST TO WEST FLOW WILL REDUCE RAIN
CHANCES A BIT AND KEEP THE BEST THREAT FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS...MAINLY BETWEEN NOGALES AND DOUGLAS AS WELL AS THE
WHITE MOUNTAINS. THIS WILL ALSO RESULT IN WARMER DAYTIME TEMPS
MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

FOR LATE WEEK THE HIGH WILL SHIFT TOWARD THE EAST AND RESULT IN A
RETURN FLOW FROM THE SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST AND PULL IN MORE MOISTURE
AND INCREASING THUNDERSTORM CHANCES...BUT STILL JUST ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED IN NATURE.

FOR TUCSON...HIGHS WILL BE NEAR NORMAL SATURDAY...THEN 4 TO 7 DEGS
ABOVE NORMAL EACH DAY THROUGH FRIDAY. HOWEVER...THE WARMEST DAY WILL
LIKELY OCCUR TUESDAY. LOWS WILL RANGE FROM 2 TO 4 DEGS ABOVE NORMAL
EACH MORNING. HOWEVER...THE COOLEST MORNINGS WILL LIKELY OCCUR
MONDAY AND TUESDAY.

&&

.TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

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000
FXUS65 KTWC 010429
AFDTWC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ
927 PM MST FRI JUL 31 2015

.SYNOPSIS...ALTHOUGH SOME DRIER AIR WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA THIS
WEEKEND INTO NEXT WEEK...THERE WILL BE ENOUGH MOISTURE AROUND FOR A
CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...MAINLY ALONG THE INTERNATIONAL
BORDER AS WELL AS THE MOUNTAIN TOPS.

&&

.DISCUSSION...A DISTURBANCE TRACKING NORTHWARD INTO SOUTHERN ARIZONA
CONTINUED TO HELP SUSTAIN THE SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY LATE
THIS EVENING. LATEST HRRR SOLUTION INDICATED THAT THIS ACTIVITY WILL
GRADUALLY DIMINISH TONIGHT AS THE DISTURBANCE LIFTS FARTHER NORTH.
RECENT RADAR IMAGERY ALSO INDICATED A DOWNWARD TREND IN THE
INTENSITY AND AREAL COVERAGE. CURRENT FORECAST WAS SHOWING THESE
TRENDS...SO NO UPDATES NECESSARY THIS EVENING. PLEASE REFER TO THE
ADDITIONAL SECTIONS FOR MORE DETAILS.

&&

.AVIATION...VALID THRU 02/06Z.
SCT TO BKN CLOUDS 7-10K FT AGL WITH SCT-NMRS SHRA/TSRA GENERALLY
BEFORE 01/10Z. BRIEF MVFR CONDITIONS WITH ERRATIC WIND GUSTS TO 45
KTS POSSIBLE IN AND AROUND THE STRONGER TSRA. AREAS OF BLDU PSBL W
AND NW OF KTUS AFT 31/22Z. OUTSIDE OF STORM INFLUENCES SFC WINDS
WILL GENERALLY BE LESS THAN 12 KTS WITH A FEW HIGHER GUSTS IN THE
AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING HOURS. SHRA/TSRA WILL OCCUR AGAIN SATURDAY
AFTERNOON...ALTHOUGH WITH LESS COVERAGE THAN TODAY. AVIATION
DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR TAF AMENDMENTS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...SATURDAY WILL SEE SLIGHTLY LESS SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY. INCREASING SW WINDS ALOFT ON SUNDAY WILL
BRING DRIER AIR INTO THE REGION FOR ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE TO BEGIN NEXT WEEK...WITH A FOCUS MAINLY SOUTH
AND EAST OF TUCSON. OUTSIDE OF THUNDERSTORM WIND GUSTS...20-FT WINDS
WILL GENERALLY BE TERRAIN DRIVEN AND LESS THAN 15 MPH. HOWEVER SOME
AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING BREEZINESS IS LIKELY DUE TO DAYTIME
HEATING...ESPECIALLY THROUGH THE GILA VALLEY NEAR SAFFORD.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...MODELS INDICATE THAT A WEAK DISTURBANCE COMING UP
FROM THE SOUTH WILL MOVE ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL ARIZONA THIS EVENING
AND THEN OVER SOUTHWEST ARIZONA EARLY SATURDAY AND WESTERN ARIZONA
MIDDAY SATURDAY. THAT SAID...SATURDAY WE SHOULD SEE LESS
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY AS THIS SYSTEM WILL BE OVER SRN NEVADA LATE IN
THE AFTERNOON AND MOISTURE IS EXPECTED TO DECREASE A BIT LATE IN THE
AFTERNOON OR INTO THE EVENING.

BY SUNDAY AND CONTINUING THROUGH AROUND WEDNESDAY THE HIGH IS
EXPECTED TO RECONSOLIDATE IN A WEST TO EAST ORIENTATION ACROSS
NORTHERN MEXICO AND THEN MOVE NORTH OVER THE DESERT SOUTHWEST BY
TUESDAY. AS A RESULT...DRIER SOUTHWEST TO WEST FLOW WILL REDUCE RAIN
CHANCES A BIT AND KEEP THE BEST THREAT FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS...MAINLY BETWEEN NOGALES AND DOUGLAS AS WELL AS THE
WHITE MOUNTAINS. THIS WILL ALSO RESULT IN WARMER DAYTIME TEMPS
MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

FOR LATE WEEK THE HIGH WILL SHIFT TOWARD THE EAST AND RESULT IN A
RETURN FLOW FROM THE SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST AND PULL IN MORE MOISTURE
AND INCREASING THUNDERSTORM CHANCES...BUT STILL JUST ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED IN NATURE.

FOR TUCSON...HIGHS WILL BE NEAR NORMAL SATURDAY...THEN 4 TO 7 DEGS
ABOVE NORMAL EACH DAY THROUGH FRIDAY. HOWEVER...THE WARMEST DAY WILL
LIKELY OCCUR TUESDAY. LOWS WILL RANGE FROM 2 TO 4 DEGS ABOVE NORMAL
EACH MORNING. HOWEVER...THE COOLEST MORNINGS WILL LIKELY OCCUR
MONDAY AND TUESDAY.

&&

.TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...YOUTUBE...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/TUCSON




000
FXUS65 KPSR 010356
AFDPSR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PHOENIX AZ
855 PM MST FRI JUL 31 2015

.SYNOPSIS... CONSIDERABLE CLOUDS AND GRADUALLY DECREASING SHOWERS
CAN BE EXPECTED FOR THE REST OF TONIGHT...WITH SKIES MOSTLY CLEAR OR
PARTLY CLOUDY OVER SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA. STORM CHANCES WILL TREND
DOWN SATURDAY WITH CHANCES LIMITED TO AREAS EAST OF THE LOWER
COLORADO RIVER VALLEY. FURTHER DRYING OCCURS NEXT WEEK WITH STORM
CHANCES CONFINED TO THE HIGHER TERRAIN EAST OF PHOENIX. TEMPERATURES
WILL HOVER NEAR NORMAL THROUGH NEXT WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION... VERY ACTIVE AFTERNOON AND EVENING TODAY ACROSS SOUTH
CENTRAL ARIZONA...WHICH WAS A HUGE CHANGE FROM JUST YESTERDAY WHEN
LITERALLY NO STORMS FORMED ANYWHERE ACROSS THE CENTRAL DESERTS.
CHANGES WERE DUE LARGELY TO A MORE FAVORABLE SOUTHEASTERLY STEERING
FLOW...A WEAK INVERTED TROF/VORT MAX MOVING NORTH AND ACROSS THE
AREA AND A MUCH WARMER AIRMASS. PHOENIX REACHED A HIGH OF 110
DEGREES TODAY...SEVERAL DEGREES WARMER THAN EXPECTED. WITH ALL OF
THIS IN THE MIX...AND PLENTY OF MOISTURE TO PLAY WITH CONSIDERING
PWAT VALUES WERE OVER 1.6 INCHES...SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS STORMS
FIRED UP STARTING IN THE EARLY AFTERNOON AND THEN THE STRONG OUTFLOW
BOUNDARIES PRODUCED BY THE STORMS INTERACTED AND FORCED DEVELOPMENT
OF NEW STORMS. THE PROCESS CONTINUED UNTIL THE LOWER ATMOSPHERE
BECAME STABILIZED BY ALL THE RAIN COOLED AIR AND AS OF 8 PM WE WERE
LEFT WITH WIDESPREAD LIGHT TO MODERATE SHOWERS AND VIRTUALLY NO
STORMS. BY 8 PM THE TEMPERATURE AT PHOENIX FELL FROM 110 DOWN INTO
THE UPPER 70S WITH DEWPOINTS UP INTO THE MIDDLE 70S. FOR THE REST OF
TONIGHT THERE WILL BE GRADUALLY DECREASING SHOWERS AND MOSTLY CLOUDY
SKIES OVER THE SOUTH CENTRAL AZ...WITH SKIES MOSTLY CLEAR TO PARTLY
CLOUDY OUT WEST. CURRENT FORECASTS LOOK TO BE IN GOOD SHAPE.

.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
REST OF TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY...
EARLY AFTERNOON STORM ACTIVITY ALREADY AFFECTING FRINGES OF PHOENIX
METRO AS OF THIS WRITING. STORMS PRODUCING BOTH STRONG DOWNDRAFTS AND
LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN. SO FAR...GUST FRONTS HAVE LARGELY BEEN UNABLE TO
PRODUCE NEW STORMS. WITH A SHORT WAVE MOVING THROUGH ALONG WITH
EXISTING STORMS...LOWER DESERTS OF SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA WILL STILL
HAVE A GOOD CHANCE OF STORMS.  OVER FAR SOUTHERN ARIZONA...STORMS
HAVE ALSO BEEN AIDED BY AN MCV FROM SONORA. AS THESE FEATURES
CONTINUE TO MOVE WEST AND NORTHWESTWARD...SOUTHWEST ARIZONA AND SOUTHEAST
CALIFORNIA WILL SEE AT LEAST ISOLATED STORMS...ESPECIALLY EAST OF THE
LOWER COLORADO RIVER VALLEY. SOME OF THE HI RES MODELS ARE INDICATING
DEBRIS SHOWERS FROM SONORA LATE TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING AND
THUS KEPT SOME LOW END POPS GOING. FOR SATURDAY AFTERNOON...WE WILL
BE ON THE BACK SIDE OF TODAY/S SHORT WAVE WHICH WOULD SUGGEST A
DOWNTREND IN ACTIVITY. ONE CAVEAT THOUGH IS ANOTHER SHORT WAVE FROM
BAJA WILL APPROACH THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT. THUS HELD ON TO SOME
POPS EAST OF THE LOWER COLORADO RIVER VALLEY...WHERE MOISTURE WILL BE
BETTER. AS THE WAVE MOVES THROUGH SUNDAY IT WEAKENS. IT WILL BE
EMBEDDED WITHIN SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WHICH ADVECTS DRIER AIR INTO
THE DESERTS. SO POPS WILL BE LIMITED TO THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF SOUTH-
CENTRAL ARIZONA.

MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...THE RIDGE REBOUNDS EARLY NEXT WEEK BUT DOES
NOT SETUP IN A FAVORABLE POSITION UNTIL AT LEAST WEDNESDAY. LATEST
GFS AND ECMWF INDICATE SOME MOIST ADVECTION BEGINNING THEN. AS
USUAL...THE ECMWF IS MORE AGGRESSIVE THAN THE GFS. THIS IS A
DEPARTURE FROM PREVIOUS RUNS WHICH KEPT THINGS DRY. WILL KEEP POPS
MINIMAL FOR NOW UNTIL THE MOISTURE RETURN LOOKS MORE SOLID.

&&

.AVIATION...
SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA INCLUDING KPHX...KIWA...AND KSDL...

MOST OF THE THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY HAS ENDED AS THE LOWER ATMOSPHERE
HAS BECOME SIGNIFICANTLY STABILIZED...AND WE ARE LEFT WITH SCATTERED
SHOWERS OR AREAS OF LIGHT RAIN. SHOWERS MAY LINGER INTO THE MORNING
HOURS...WITH CIGS GENLY AOA 8-10K FEET. WE SHOULD SEE THESE LOWER
CIGS GRADUALLY DISSIPATE AFTER MIDNIGHT LEAVING BEHIND SCT-BKN MID
AND HI LEVEL DEBRIS DECKS. GIVEN HOW WORKED OVER THE ATMOSPHERE
IS...THEREAT FOR STORMS SHOULD BE MUCH LESS TOMORROW BUT WE WILL
LIKELY SEE CUMULUS DEVELOP DURING THE LATE MORNING OR EARLY
AFTERNOON WITH BASES MOSTLY AOA 7K FEET. WINDS HAVE CALMED DOWN AND
SHOULD TEND TO FAVOR THE EAST AFTER MIDNIGHT...THEN RETURNING TO THE
SOUTHWEST OR WEST DURING THE AFTERNOON SATURDAY.

SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA AND SOUTHWEST ARIZONA INCLUDING KIPL AND
KBLH...

VERY LITTLE THREAT FOR SHOWERS OR STORMS FOR THE REST OF
TONIGHT...WITH ONLY SOME MID/HI LEVEL DEBRIS CLOUDS EXPECTED TO
DRIFT INTO THE AREA. BETTER CHANCES FOR THICK DEBRIS DECKS AT KBLH.
BY MID MORNING SATURDAY SKIES SHOULD BE GENLY SUNNY. NO STRONG WINDS
ARE EXPECTED NEXT 24 HOURS...AND THEY SHOULD FAVOR THE SOUTH AT KBLH
AND THE WEST AT KIPL.

AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDED TAFS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...
MONSOONAL MOISTURE WILL SLOWLY BEGIN TO THIN ACROSS THE AREA...FIRST
ACROSS THE WESTERN FIRE DISTRICTS AND EVENTUALLY INTO THE ENTIRE
LOWER DESERT ELEVATIONS AND REGION BY EARLY NEXT WEEK. THIS WILL
RELEGATE STORM CHANCES BACK TOWARDS THE HIGHER TERRAIN AND FURTHER
TO THE EAST ACROSS AZ. MINIMUM RH VALUES WILL BEGIN TO SETTLE INTO
THE TEENS WHILE MAKING MOSTLY MODEST TO FAIR OVERNIGHT RECOVERIES.
THE SLIGHTLY DRIER AIRMASS AND BUILDING UPPER RIDGE HEIGHTS WILL
LEND THEMSELVES TOWARD WARMER SFC CONDITIONS...AT OR ABOVE SEASONAL
NORMALS. WINDS WILL FOLLOW FAMILIAR WARM SEASON PATTERNS. BY MIDWEEK
A SUBTLE RETURN OF GULF MOISTURE MAY BOOST AREA HUMIDITIES...BUT NOT
LINGER MUCH THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT CONDITIONS ACCORDING TO STANDARD
OPERATING PROCEDURES.

&&

.PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AZ...NONE.
CA...NONE.
&&

$$

VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/PHOENIX

DISCUSSION...CB
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...AJ
AVIATION...CB
FIRE WEATHER...NOLTE




000
FXUS65 KPSR 010356
AFDPSR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PHOENIX AZ
855 PM MST FRI JUL 31 2015

.SYNOPSIS... CONSIDERABLE CLOUDS AND GRADUALLY DECREASING SHOWERS
CAN BE EXPECTED FOR THE REST OF TONIGHT...WITH SKIES MOSTLY CLEAR OR
PARTLY CLOUDY OVER SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA. STORM CHANCES WILL TREND
DOWN SATURDAY WITH CHANCES LIMITED TO AREAS EAST OF THE LOWER
COLORADO RIVER VALLEY. FURTHER DRYING OCCURS NEXT WEEK WITH STORM
CHANCES CONFINED TO THE HIGHER TERRAIN EAST OF PHOENIX. TEMPERATURES
WILL HOVER NEAR NORMAL THROUGH NEXT WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION... VERY ACTIVE AFTERNOON AND EVENING TODAY ACROSS SOUTH
CENTRAL ARIZONA...WHICH WAS A HUGE CHANGE FROM JUST YESTERDAY WHEN
LITERALLY NO STORMS FORMED ANYWHERE ACROSS THE CENTRAL DESERTS.
CHANGES WERE DUE LARGELY TO A MORE FAVORABLE SOUTHEASTERLY STEERING
FLOW...A WEAK INVERTED TROF/VORT MAX MOVING NORTH AND ACROSS THE
AREA AND A MUCH WARMER AIRMASS. PHOENIX REACHED A HIGH OF 110
DEGREES TODAY...SEVERAL DEGREES WARMER THAN EXPECTED. WITH ALL OF
THIS IN THE MIX...AND PLENTY OF MOISTURE TO PLAY WITH CONSIDERING
PWAT VALUES WERE OVER 1.6 INCHES...SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS STORMS
FIRED UP STARTING IN THE EARLY AFTERNOON AND THEN THE STRONG OUTFLOW
BOUNDARIES PRODUCED BY THE STORMS INTERACTED AND FORCED DEVELOPMENT
OF NEW STORMS. THE PROCESS CONTINUED UNTIL THE LOWER ATMOSPHERE
BECAME STABILIZED BY ALL THE RAIN COOLED AIR AND AS OF 8 PM WE WERE
LEFT WITH WIDESPREAD LIGHT TO MODERATE SHOWERS AND VIRTUALLY NO
STORMS. BY 8 PM THE TEMPERATURE AT PHOENIX FELL FROM 110 DOWN INTO
THE UPPER 70S WITH DEWPOINTS UP INTO THE MIDDLE 70S. FOR THE REST OF
TONIGHT THERE WILL BE GRADUALLY DECREASING SHOWERS AND MOSTLY CLOUDY
SKIES OVER THE SOUTH CENTRAL AZ...WITH SKIES MOSTLY CLEAR TO PARTLY
CLOUDY OUT WEST. CURRENT FORECASTS LOOK TO BE IN GOOD SHAPE.

.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
REST OF TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY...
EARLY AFTERNOON STORM ACTIVITY ALREADY AFFECTING FRINGES OF PHOENIX
METRO AS OF THIS WRITING. STORMS PRODUCING BOTH STRONG DOWNDRAFTS AND
LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN. SO FAR...GUST FRONTS HAVE LARGELY BEEN UNABLE TO
PRODUCE NEW STORMS. WITH A SHORT WAVE MOVING THROUGH ALONG WITH
EXISTING STORMS...LOWER DESERTS OF SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA WILL STILL
HAVE A GOOD CHANCE OF STORMS.  OVER FAR SOUTHERN ARIZONA...STORMS
HAVE ALSO BEEN AIDED BY AN MCV FROM SONORA. AS THESE FEATURES
CONTINUE TO MOVE WEST AND NORTHWESTWARD...SOUTHWEST ARIZONA AND SOUTHEAST
CALIFORNIA WILL SEE AT LEAST ISOLATED STORMS...ESPECIALLY EAST OF THE
LOWER COLORADO RIVER VALLEY. SOME OF THE HI RES MODELS ARE INDICATING
DEBRIS SHOWERS FROM SONORA LATE TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING AND
THUS KEPT SOME LOW END POPS GOING. FOR SATURDAY AFTERNOON...WE WILL
BE ON THE BACK SIDE OF TODAY/S SHORT WAVE WHICH WOULD SUGGEST A
DOWNTREND IN ACTIVITY. ONE CAVEAT THOUGH IS ANOTHER SHORT WAVE FROM
BAJA WILL APPROACH THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT. THUS HELD ON TO SOME
POPS EAST OF THE LOWER COLORADO RIVER VALLEY...WHERE MOISTURE WILL BE
BETTER. AS THE WAVE MOVES THROUGH SUNDAY IT WEAKENS. IT WILL BE
EMBEDDED WITHIN SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WHICH ADVECTS DRIER AIR INTO
THE DESERTS. SO POPS WILL BE LIMITED TO THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF SOUTH-
CENTRAL ARIZONA.

MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...THE RIDGE REBOUNDS EARLY NEXT WEEK BUT DOES
NOT SETUP IN A FAVORABLE POSITION UNTIL AT LEAST WEDNESDAY. LATEST
GFS AND ECMWF INDICATE SOME MOIST ADVECTION BEGINNING THEN. AS
USUAL...THE ECMWF IS MORE AGGRESSIVE THAN THE GFS. THIS IS A
DEPARTURE FROM PREVIOUS RUNS WHICH KEPT THINGS DRY. WILL KEEP POPS
MINIMAL FOR NOW UNTIL THE MOISTURE RETURN LOOKS MORE SOLID.

&&

.AVIATION...
SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA INCLUDING KPHX...KIWA...AND KSDL...

MOST OF THE THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY HAS ENDED AS THE LOWER ATMOSPHERE
HAS BECOME SIGNIFICANTLY STABILIZED...AND WE ARE LEFT WITH SCATTERED
SHOWERS OR AREAS OF LIGHT RAIN. SHOWERS MAY LINGER INTO THE MORNING
HOURS...WITH CIGS GENLY AOA 8-10K FEET. WE SHOULD SEE THESE LOWER
CIGS GRADUALLY DISSIPATE AFTER MIDNIGHT LEAVING BEHIND SCT-BKN MID
AND HI LEVEL DEBRIS DECKS. GIVEN HOW WORKED OVER THE ATMOSPHERE
IS...THEREAT FOR STORMS SHOULD BE MUCH LESS TOMORROW BUT WE WILL
LIKELY SEE CUMULUS DEVELOP DURING THE LATE MORNING OR EARLY
AFTERNOON WITH BASES MOSTLY AOA 7K FEET. WINDS HAVE CALMED DOWN AND
SHOULD TEND TO FAVOR THE EAST AFTER MIDNIGHT...THEN RETURNING TO THE
SOUTHWEST OR WEST DURING THE AFTERNOON SATURDAY.

SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA AND SOUTHWEST ARIZONA INCLUDING KIPL AND
KBLH...

VERY LITTLE THREAT FOR SHOWERS OR STORMS FOR THE REST OF
TONIGHT...WITH ONLY SOME MID/HI LEVEL DEBRIS CLOUDS EXPECTED TO
DRIFT INTO THE AREA. BETTER CHANCES FOR THICK DEBRIS DECKS AT KBLH.
BY MID MORNING SATURDAY SKIES SHOULD BE GENLY SUNNY. NO STRONG WINDS
ARE EXPECTED NEXT 24 HOURS...AND THEY SHOULD FAVOR THE SOUTH AT KBLH
AND THE WEST AT KIPL.

AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDED TAFS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...
MONSOONAL MOISTURE WILL SLOWLY BEGIN TO THIN ACROSS THE AREA...FIRST
ACROSS THE WESTERN FIRE DISTRICTS AND EVENTUALLY INTO THE ENTIRE
LOWER DESERT ELEVATIONS AND REGION BY EARLY NEXT WEEK. THIS WILL
RELEGATE STORM CHANCES BACK TOWARDS THE HIGHER TERRAIN AND FURTHER
TO THE EAST ACROSS AZ. MINIMUM RH VALUES WILL BEGIN TO SETTLE INTO
THE TEENS WHILE MAKING MOSTLY MODEST TO FAIR OVERNIGHT RECOVERIES.
THE SLIGHTLY DRIER AIRMASS AND BUILDING UPPER RIDGE HEIGHTS WILL
LEND THEMSELVES TOWARD WARMER SFC CONDITIONS...AT OR ABOVE SEASONAL
NORMALS. WINDS WILL FOLLOW FAMILIAR WARM SEASON PATTERNS. BY MIDWEEK
A SUBTLE RETURN OF GULF MOISTURE MAY BOOST AREA HUMIDITIES...BUT NOT
LINGER MUCH THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT CONDITIONS ACCORDING TO STANDARD
OPERATING PROCEDURES.

&&

.PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AZ...NONE.
CA...NONE.
&&

$$

VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/PHOENIX

DISCUSSION...CB
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...AJ
AVIATION...CB
FIRE WEATHER...NOLTE



000
FXUS65 KFGZ 312233
AFDFGZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ
333 PM MST FRI JUL 31 2015

.SYNOPSIS...DEEP MOISTURE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH SATURDAY.
STORM COVERAGE WILL LIKELY PEAK IN THE AFTERNOON BEFORE
DIMINISHING AFTER SUNSET. EXPECT SLIGHTLY LESS ACTIVITY ON SUNDAY
AND A STEADY DECREASE NEXT WEEK AS DRY AIR MOVES IN FROM THE WEST.

&&
.DISCUSSION...IT WAS AN ACTIVE DAY ACROSS ARIZONA WITH SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS. THE STORMS WERE NOT MOVING VERY FAST SO THERE WAS
LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN. MOIST AIR WILL REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS
NORTHERN ARIZONA THROUGH SATURDAY WITH ANOTHER ACTIVE DAY
EXPECTED.

FROM SUNDAY AND MONDAY...A DRY SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL START TO MOVE
INTO ARIZONA WITH DECREASING CHANCES FOR STORMS FROM WEST TO EAST.

TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...THE DRY SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL MOVE OVER MOST
OF NORTHERN ARIZONA WITH SLIGHT CHANCES OF STORMS FOR ALL OF
NORTHERN ARIZONA WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE WHITE MOUNTAINS.

BY THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...MOISTURE RAPIDLY RETURNS TO NORTHERN
ARIZONA FROM THE SOUTH WITH CHANCES OF STORMS INCREASING.

&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 00Z PACKAGE...SCATTERED SHRA/TSRA IN
TO THE EVENING...WITH A CHANCE OF SOME SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS
CONTINUING OVERNIGHT. THE GREATEST IMPACTS TO AVIATION WILL BE LOCAL
MVFR/IFR IN HEAVY RAIN. STORMS WILL BEGIN TO DEVELOP AGAIN AFTER
AROUND 17Z SATURDAY. IFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE IN STRONGER
STORMS. AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDMENTS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...AN ACTIVE MONSOON PATTERN WILL CONTINUE ACROSS
NORTHERN ARIZONA INTO THIS WEEKEND. EXPECT SCATTERED AFTERNOON AND
EVENING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. DRIER AIR WILL START TO MOVE INTO
WESTERN ARIZONA STARTING SUNDAY.

.MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...A DRIER SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO
MOVE OVER NORTHERN ARIZONA WITH DECREASING MONSOON MOISTURE AND
CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. FEWER STORMS ARE EXPECTED EACH
DAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

&&

.FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC...MAS
AVIATION...MAS
FIRE WEATHER...MAS


FOR NORTHERN ARIZONA WEATHER INFORMATION VISIT
WEATHER.GOV/FLAGSTAFF



000
FXUS65 KFGZ 312233
AFDFGZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ
333 PM MST FRI JUL 31 2015

.SYNOPSIS...DEEP MOISTURE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH SATURDAY.
STORM COVERAGE WILL LIKELY PEAK IN THE AFTERNOON BEFORE
DIMINISHING AFTER SUNSET. EXPECT SLIGHTLY LESS ACTIVITY ON SUNDAY
AND A STEADY DECREASE NEXT WEEK AS DRY AIR MOVES IN FROM THE WEST.

&&
.DISCUSSION...IT WAS AN ACTIVE DAY ACROSS ARIZONA WITH SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS. THE STORMS WERE NOT MOVING VERY FAST SO THERE WAS
LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN. MOIST AIR WILL REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS
NORTHERN ARIZONA THROUGH SATURDAY WITH ANOTHER ACTIVE DAY
EXPECTED.

FROM SUNDAY AND MONDAY...A DRY SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL START TO MOVE
INTO ARIZONA WITH DECREASING CHANCES FOR STORMS FROM WEST TO EAST.

TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...THE DRY SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL MOVE OVER MOST
OF NORTHERN ARIZONA WITH SLIGHT CHANCES OF STORMS FOR ALL OF
NORTHERN ARIZONA WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE WHITE MOUNTAINS.

BY THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...MOISTURE RAPIDLY RETURNS TO NORTHERN
ARIZONA FROM THE SOUTH WITH CHANCES OF STORMS INCREASING.

&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 00Z PACKAGE...SCATTERED SHRA/TSRA IN
TO THE EVENING...WITH A CHANCE OF SOME SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS
CONTINUING OVERNIGHT. THE GREATEST IMPACTS TO AVIATION WILL BE LOCAL
MVFR/IFR IN HEAVY RAIN. STORMS WILL BEGIN TO DEVELOP AGAIN AFTER
AROUND 17Z SATURDAY. IFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE IN STRONGER
STORMS. AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDMENTS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...AN ACTIVE MONSOON PATTERN WILL CONTINUE ACROSS
NORTHERN ARIZONA INTO THIS WEEKEND. EXPECT SCATTERED AFTERNOON AND
EVENING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. DRIER AIR WILL START TO MOVE INTO
WESTERN ARIZONA STARTING SUNDAY.

.MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...A DRIER SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO
MOVE OVER NORTHERN ARIZONA WITH DECREASING MONSOON MOISTURE AND
CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. FEWER STORMS ARE EXPECTED EACH
DAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

&&

.FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC...MAS
AVIATION...MAS
FIRE WEATHER...MAS


FOR NORTHERN ARIZONA WEATHER INFORMATION VISIT
WEATHER.GOV/FLAGSTAFF



000
FXUS65 KFGZ 312233
AFDFGZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ
333 PM MST FRI JUL 31 2015

.SYNOPSIS...DEEP MOISTURE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH SATURDAY.
STORM COVERAGE WILL LIKELY PEAK IN THE AFTERNOON BEFORE
DIMINISHING AFTER SUNSET. EXPECT SLIGHTLY LESS ACTIVITY ON SUNDAY
AND A STEADY DECREASE NEXT WEEK AS DRY AIR MOVES IN FROM THE WEST.

&&
.DISCUSSION...IT WAS AN ACTIVE DAY ACROSS ARIZONA WITH SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS. THE STORMS WERE NOT MOVING VERY FAST SO THERE WAS
LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN. MOIST AIR WILL REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS
NORTHERN ARIZONA THROUGH SATURDAY WITH ANOTHER ACTIVE DAY
EXPECTED.

FROM SUNDAY AND MONDAY...A DRY SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL START TO MOVE
INTO ARIZONA WITH DECREASING CHANCES FOR STORMS FROM WEST TO EAST.

TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...THE DRY SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL MOVE OVER MOST
OF NORTHERN ARIZONA WITH SLIGHT CHANCES OF STORMS FOR ALL OF
NORTHERN ARIZONA WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE WHITE MOUNTAINS.

BY THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...MOISTURE RAPIDLY RETURNS TO NORTHERN
ARIZONA FROM THE SOUTH WITH CHANCES OF STORMS INCREASING.

&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 00Z PACKAGE...SCATTERED SHRA/TSRA IN
TO THE EVENING...WITH A CHANCE OF SOME SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS
CONTINUING OVERNIGHT. THE GREATEST IMPACTS TO AVIATION WILL BE LOCAL
MVFR/IFR IN HEAVY RAIN. STORMS WILL BEGIN TO DEVELOP AGAIN AFTER
AROUND 17Z SATURDAY. IFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE IN STRONGER
STORMS. AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDMENTS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...AN ACTIVE MONSOON PATTERN WILL CONTINUE ACROSS
NORTHERN ARIZONA INTO THIS WEEKEND. EXPECT SCATTERED AFTERNOON AND
EVENING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. DRIER AIR WILL START TO MOVE INTO
WESTERN ARIZONA STARTING SUNDAY.

.MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...A DRIER SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO
MOVE OVER NORTHERN ARIZONA WITH DECREASING MONSOON MOISTURE AND
CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. FEWER STORMS ARE EXPECTED EACH
DAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

&&

.FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC...MAS
AVIATION...MAS
FIRE WEATHER...MAS


FOR NORTHERN ARIZONA WEATHER INFORMATION VISIT
WEATHER.GOV/FLAGSTAFF



000
FXUS65 KFGZ 312233
AFDFGZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ
333 PM MST FRI JUL 31 2015

.SYNOPSIS...DEEP MOISTURE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH SATURDAY.
STORM COVERAGE WILL LIKELY PEAK IN THE AFTERNOON BEFORE
DIMINISHING AFTER SUNSET. EXPECT SLIGHTLY LESS ACTIVITY ON SUNDAY
AND A STEADY DECREASE NEXT WEEK AS DRY AIR MOVES IN FROM THE WEST.

&&
.DISCUSSION...IT WAS AN ACTIVE DAY ACROSS ARIZONA WITH SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS. THE STORMS WERE NOT MOVING VERY FAST SO THERE WAS
LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN. MOIST AIR WILL REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS
NORTHERN ARIZONA THROUGH SATURDAY WITH ANOTHER ACTIVE DAY
EXPECTED.

FROM SUNDAY AND MONDAY...A DRY SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL START TO MOVE
INTO ARIZONA WITH DECREASING CHANCES FOR STORMS FROM WEST TO EAST.

TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...THE DRY SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL MOVE OVER MOST
OF NORTHERN ARIZONA WITH SLIGHT CHANCES OF STORMS FOR ALL OF
NORTHERN ARIZONA WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE WHITE MOUNTAINS.

BY THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...MOISTURE RAPIDLY RETURNS TO NORTHERN
ARIZONA FROM THE SOUTH WITH CHANCES OF STORMS INCREASING.

&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 00Z PACKAGE...SCATTERED SHRA/TSRA IN
TO THE EVENING...WITH A CHANCE OF SOME SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS
CONTINUING OVERNIGHT. THE GREATEST IMPACTS TO AVIATION WILL BE LOCAL
MVFR/IFR IN HEAVY RAIN. STORMS WILL BEGIN TO DEVELOP AGAIN AFTER
AROUND 17Z SATURDAY. IFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE IN STRONGER
STORMS. AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDMENTS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...AN ACTIVE MONSOON PATTERN WILL CONTINUE ACROSS
NORTHERN ARIZONA INTO THIS WEEKEND. EXPECT SCATTERED AFTERNOON AND
EVENING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. DRIER AIR WILL START TO MOVE INTO
WESTERN ARIZONA STARTING SUNDAY.

.MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...A DRIER SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO
MOVE OVER NORTHERN ARIZONA WITH DECREASING MONSOON MOISTURE AND
CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. FEWER STORMS ARE EXPECTED EACH
DAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

&&

.FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC...MAS
AVIATION...MAS
FIRE WEATHER...MAS


FOR NORTHERN ARIZONA WEATHER INFORMATION VISIT
WEATHER.GOV/FLAGSTAFF



000
FXUS65 KPSR 312129
AFDPSR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PHOENIX AZ
229 PM MST FRI JUL 31 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS OVER SOUTHERN ARIZONA CAN BE EXPECTED
THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT...LESS SO OVER SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA. STORM
CHANCES WILL TREND DOWN SATURDAY WITH CHANCES LIMITED TO AREAS EAST
OF THE LOWER COLORADO RIVER VALLEY. FURTHER DRYING OCCURS NEXT WEEK
WITH STORM CHANCES CONFINED TO THE HIGHER TERRAIN EAST OF PHOENIX.
TEMPERATURES WILL HOVER NEAR NORMAL THROUGH NEXT WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
REST OF TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY...
EARLY AFTERNOON STORM ACTIVITY ALREADY AFFECTING FRINGES OF PHOENIX
METRO AS OF THIS WRITING. STORMS PRODUCING BOTH STRONG DOWNDRAFTS AND
LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN. SO FAR...GUST FRONTS HAVE LARGELY BEEN UNABLE TO
PRODUCE NEW STORMS. WITH A SHORT WAVE MOVING THROUGH ALONG WITH
EXISTING STORMS...LOWER DESERTS OF SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA WILL STILL
HAVE A GOOD CHANCE OF STORMS.  OVER FAR SOUTHERN ARIZONA...STORMS
HAVE ALSO BEEN AIDED BY AN MCV FROM SONORA. AS THESE FEATURES
CONTINUE TO MOVE WEST AND NORTHWESTWARD...SOUTHWEST ARIZONA AND SOUTHEAST
CALIFORNIA WILL SEE AT LEAST ISOLATED STORMS...ESPECIALLY EAST OF THE
LOWER COLORADO RIVER VALLEY. SOME OF THE HI RES MODELS ARE INDICATING
DEBRIS SHOWERS FROM SONORA LATE TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING AND
THUS KEPT SOME LOW END POPS GOING. FOR SATURDAY AFTERNOON...WE WILL
BE ON THE BACK SIDE OF TODAY/S SHORT WAVE WHICH WOULD SUGGEST A
DOWNTREND IN ACTIVITY. ONE CAVEAT THOUGH IS ANOTHER SHORT WAVE FROM
BAJA WILL APPROACH THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT. THUS HELD ON TO SOME
POPS EAST OF THE LOWER COLORADO RIVER VALLEY...WHERE MOISTURE WILL BE
BETTER. AS THE WAVE MOVES THROUGH SUNDAY IT WEAKENS. IT WILL BE
EMBEDDED WITHIN SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WHICH ADVECTS DRIER AIR INTO
THE DESERTS. SO POPS WILL BE LIMITED TO THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF SOUTH-
CENTRAL ARIZONA.

MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...THE RIDGE REBOUNDS EARLY NEXT WEEK BUT DOES
NOT SETUP IN A FAVORABLE POSITION UNTIL AT LEAST WEDNESDAY. LATEST
GFS AND ECMWF INDICATE SOME MOIST ADVECTION BEGINNING THEN. AS
USUAL...THE ECMWF IS MORE AGGRESSIVE THAN THE GFS. THIS IS A
DEPARTURE FROM PREVIOUS RUNS WHICH KEPT THINGS DRY. WILL KEEP POPS
MINIMAL FOR NOW UNTIL THE MOISTURE RETURN LOOKS MORE SOLID.

&&

.AVIATION...
SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA INCLUDING KPHX...KIWA...AND KSDL...

AN ACTIVE START TO THE AFTERNOON WITH QUITE A BIT OF STORM ACTIVITY
ALREADY FIRING OVER THE MOUNTAINS TO THE NORTH AND EAST OF PHOENIX.
EVENTUALLY EXPECTING SOME STORM OUTFLOWS TO ALLOW FOR MORE STORM
DEVELOPMENT OVER THE LOWER DESERTS BY LATE AFTERNOON. CONFIDENCE IN
TIMING FOR STORMS IN THE LOWER DESERTS IS STILL SOMEWHAT LOW...BUT
WE MAY SEE SOME OUTFLOWS INTO THE PHOENIX TERMINALS AS SOON AS 22-
00Z AND THEN A SHOT AT SOME THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE EVENING HOURS.
WIND FORECASTS THROUGH MIDNIGHT ARE RATHER TRICKY DUE TO THE STRONG
LIKELIHOOD OF STORM OUTFLOWS AFFECTING THE AREA. THERE IS POTENTIAL
FOR SOME STRONG WIND GUSTS WITH THESE OUTFLOWS AND VISIBILITY
RESTRICTIONS IN DUST OR RAIN.

SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA AND SOUTHWEST ARIZONA INCLUDING KIPL AND
KBLH...

WEST WINDS TO HOLD MOSTLY FOR KIPL THROUGHOUT THE DAY WHILE
SOUTHERLY HEADINGS ARE IN STORE FOR KBLH. SLIGHT CHANCE FOR ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT INTO THE AFTN ALONG THE CO RIVER
VALLEY...SO AT LEAST VCSH MENTION IS BACK IN THE KBLH TAF FOR THE
AFTN/EVENING HOURS.

AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDED TAFS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...
MONSOONAL MOISTURE WILL SLOWLY BEGIN TO THIN ACROSS THE AREA...FIRST
ACROSS THE WESTERN FIRE DISTRICTS AND EVENTUALLY INTO THE ENTIRE
LOWER DESERT ELEVATIONS AND REGION BY EARLY NEXT WEEK. THIS WILL
RELEGATE STORM CHANCES BACK TOWARDS THE HIGHER TERRAIN AND FURTHER
TO THE EAST ACROSS AZ. MINIMUM RH VALUES WILL BEGIN TO SETTLE INTO
THE TEENS WHILE MAKING MOSTLY MODEST TO FAIR OVERNIGHT RECOVERIES.
THE SLIGHTLY DRIER AIRMASS AND BUILDING UPPER RIDGE HEIGHTS WILL
LEND THEMSELVES TOWARD WARMER SFC CONDITIONS...AT OR ABOVE SEASONAL
NORMALS. WINDS WILL FOLLOW FAMILIAR WARM SEASON PATTERNS. BY MIDWEEK
A SUBTLE RETURN OF GULF MOISTURE MAY BOOST AREA HUMIDITIES...BUT NOT
LINGER MUCH THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT CONDITIONS ACCORDING TO STANDARD
OPERATING PROCEDURES.

&&

.PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AZ...NONE.
CA...NONE.
&&

$$

VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/PHOENIX

DISCUSSION...AJ
AVIATION...KUHLMAN
FIRE WEATHER...NOLTE




000
FXUS65 KPSR 312129
AFDPSR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PHOENIX AZ
229 PM MST FRI JUL 31 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS OVER SOUTHERN ARIZONA CAN BE EXPECTED
THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT...LESS SO OVER SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA. STORM
CHANCES WILL TREND DOWN SATURDAY WITH CHANCES LIMITED TO AREAS EAST
OF THE LOWER COLORADO RIVER VALLEY. FURTHER DRYING OCCURS NEXT WEEK
WITH STORM CHANCES CONFINED TO THE HIGHER TERRAIN EAST OF PHOENIX.
TEMPERATURES WILL HOVER NEAR NORMAL THROUGH NEXT WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
REST OF TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY...
EARLY AFTERNOON STORM ACTIVITY ALREADY AFFECTING FRINGES OF PHOENIX
METRO AS OF THIS WRITING. STORMS PRODUCING BOTH STRONG DOWNDRAFTS AND
LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN. SO FAR...GUST FRONTS HAVE LARGELY BEEN UNABLE TO
PRODUCE NEW STORMS. WITH A SHORT WAVE MOVING THROUGH ALONG WITH
EXISTING STORMS...LOWER DESERTS OF SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA WILL STILL
HAVE A GOOD CHANCE OF STORMS.  OVER FAR SOUTHERN ARIZONA...STORMS
HAVE ALSO BEEN AIDED BY AN MCV FROM SONORA. AS THESE FEATURES
CONTINUE TO MOVE WEST AND NORTHWESTWARD...SOUTHWEST ARIZONA AND SOUTHEAST
CALIFORNIA WILL SEE AT LEAST ISOLATED STORMS...ESPECIALLY EAST OF THE
LOWER COLORADO RIVER VALLEY. SOME OF THE HI RES MODELS ARE INDICATING
DEBRIS SHOWERS FROM SONORA LATE TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING AND
THUS KEPT SOME LOW END POPS GOING. FOR SATURDAY AFTERNOON...WE WILL
BE ON THE BACK SIDE OF TODAY/S SHORT WAVE WHICH WOULD SUGGEST A
DOWNTREND IN ACTIVITY. ONE CAVEAT THOUGH IS ANOTHER SHORT WAVE FROM
BAJA WILL APPROACH THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT. THUS HELD ON TO SOME
POPS EAST OF THE LOWER COLORADO RIVER VALLEY...WHERE MOISTURE WILL BE
BETTER. AS THE WAVE MOVES THROUGH SUNDAY IT WEAKENS. IT WILL BE
EMBEDDED WITHIN SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WHICH ADVECTS DRIER AIR INTO
THE DESERTS. SO POPS WILL BE LIMITED TO THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF SOUTH-
CENTRAL ARIZONA.

MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...THE RIDGE REBOUNDS EARLY NEXT WEEK BUT DOES
NOT SETUP IN A FAVORABLE POSITION UNTIL AT LEAST WEDNESDAY. LATEST
GFS AND ECMWF INDICATE SOME MOIST ADVECTION BEGINNING THEN. AS
USUAL...THE ECMWF IS MORE AGGRESSIVE THAN THE GFS. THIS IS A
DEPARTURE FROM PREVIOUS RUNS WHICH KEPT THINGS DRY. WILL KEEP POPS
MINIMAL FOR NOW UNTIL THE MOISTURE RETURN LOOKS MORE SOLID.

&&

.AVIATION...
SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA INCLUDING KPHX...KIWA...AND KSDL...

AN ACTIVE START TO THE AFTERNOON WITH QUITE A BIT OF STORM ACTIVITY
ALREADY FIRING OVER THE MOUNTAINS TO THE NORTH AND EAST OF PHOENIX.
EVENTUALLY EXPECTING SOME STORM OUTFLOWS TO ALLOW FOR MORE STORM
DEVELOPMENT OVER THE LOWER DESERTS BY LATE AFTERNOON. CONFIDENCE IN
TIMING FOR STORMS IN THE LOWER DESERTS IS STILL SOMEWHAT LOW...BUT
WE MAY SEE SOME OUTFLOWS INTO THE PHOENIX TERMINALS AS SOON AS 22-
00Z AND THEN A SHOT AT SOME THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE EVENING HOURS.
WIND FORECASTS THROUGH MIDNIGHT ARE RATHER TRICKY DUE TO THE STRONG
LIKELIHOOD OF STORM OUTFLOWS AFFECTING THE AREA. THERE IS POTENTIAL
FOR SOME STRONG WIND GUSTS WITH THESE OUTFLOWS AND VISIBILITY
RESTRICTIONS IN DUST OR RAIN.

SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA AND SOUTHWEST ARIZONA INCLUDING KIPL AND
KBLH...

WEST WINDS TO HOLD MOSTLY FOR KIPL THROUGHOUT THE DAY WHILE
SOUTHERLY HEADINGS ARE IN STORE FOR KBLH. SLIGHT CHANCE FOR ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT INTO THE AFTN ALONG THE CO RIVER
VALLEY...SO AT LEAST VCSH MENTION IS BACK IN THE KBLH TAF FOR THE
AFTN/EVENING HOURS.

AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDED TAFS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...
MONSOONAL MOISTURE WILL SLOWLY BEGIN TO THIN ACROSS THE AREA...FIRST
ACROSS THE WESTERN FIRE DISTRICTS AND EVENTUALLY INTO THE ENTIRE
LOWER DESERT ELEVATIONS AND REGION BY EARLY NEXT WEEK. THIS WILL
RELEGATE STORM CHANCES BACK TOWARDS THE HIGHER TERRAIN AND FURTHER
TO THE EAST ACROSS AZ. MINIMUM RH VALUES WILL BEGIN TO SETTLE INTO
THE TEENS WHILE MAKING MOSTLY MODEST TO FAIR OVERNIGHT RECOVERIES.
THE SLIGHTLY DRIER AIRMASS AND BUILDING UPPER RIDGE HEIGHTS WILL
LEND THEMSELVES TOWARD WARMER SFC CONDITIONS...AT OR ABOVE SEASONAL
NORMALS. WINDS WILL FOLLOW FAMILIAR WARM SEASON PATTERNS. BY MIDWEEK
A SUBTLE RETURN OF GULF MOISTURE MAY BOOST AREA HUMIDITIES...BUT NOT
LINGER MUCH THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT CONDITIONS ACCORDING TO STANDARD
OPERATING PROCEDURES.

&&

.PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AZ...NONE.
CA...NONE.
&&

$$

VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/PHOENIX

DISCUSSION...AJ
AVIATION...KUHLMAN
FIRE WEATHER...NOLTE




000
FXUS65 KPSR 312129
AFDPSR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PHOENIX AZ
229 PM MST FRI JUL 31 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS OVER SOUTHERN ARIZONA CAN BE EXPECTED
THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT...LESS SO OVER SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA. STORM
CHANCES WILL TREND DOWN SATURDAY WITH CHANCES LIMITED TO AREAS EAST
OF THE LOWER COLORADO RIVER VALLEY. FURTHER DRYING OCCURS NEXT WEEK
WITH STORM CHANCES CONFINED TO THE HIGHER TERRAIN EAST OF PHOENIX.
TEMPERATURES WILL HOVER NEAR NORMAL THROUGH NEXT WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
REST OF TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY...
EARLY AFTERNOON STORM ACTIVITY ALREADY AFFECTING FRINGES OF PHOENIX
METRO AS OF THIS WRITING. STORMS PRODUCING BOTH STRONG DOWNDRAFTS AND
LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN. SO FAR...GUST FRONTS HAVE LARGELY BEEN UNABLE TO
PRODUCE NEW STORMS. WITH A SHORT WAVE MOVING THROUGH ALONG WITH
EXISTING STORMS...LOWER DESERTS OF SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA WILL STILL
HAVE A GOOD CHANCE OF STORMS.  OVER FAR SOUTHERN ARIZONA...STORMS
HAVE ALSO BEEN AIDED BY AN MCV FROM SONORA. AS THESE FEATURES
CONTINUE TO MOVE WEST AND NORTHWESTWARD...SOUTHWEST ARIZONA AND SOUTHEAST
CALIFORNIA WILL SEE AT LEAST ISOLATED STORMS...ESPECIALLY EAST OF THE
LOWER COLORADO RIVER VALLEY. SOME OF THE HI RES MODELS ARE INDICATING
DEBRIS SHOWERS FROM SONORA LATE TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING AND
THUS KEPT SOME LOW END POPS GOING. FOR SATURDAY AFTERNOON...WE WILL
BE ON THE BACK SIDE OF TODAY/S SHORT WAVE WHICH WOULD SUGGEST A
DOWNTREND IN ACTIVITY. ONE CAVEAT THOUGH IS ANOTHER SHORT WAVE FROM
BAJA WILL APPROACH THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT. THUS HELD ON TO SOME
POPS EAST OF THE LOWER COLORADO RIVER VALLEY...WHERE MOISTURE WILL BE
BETTER. AS THE WAVE MOVES THROUGH SUNDAY IT WEAKENS. IT WILL BE
EMBEDDED WITHIN SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WHICH ADVECTS DRIER AIR INTO
THE DESERTS. SO POPS WILL BE LIMITED TO THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF SOUTH-
CENTRAL ARIZONA.

MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...THE RIDGE REBOUNDS EARLY NEXT WEEK BUT DOES
NOT SETUP IN A FAVORABLE POSITION UNTIL AT LEAST WEDNESDAY. LATEST
GFS AND ECMWF INDICATE SOME MOIST ADVECTION BEGINNING THEN. AS
USUAL...THE ECMWF IS MORE AGGRESSIVE THAN THE GFS. THIS IS A
DEPARTURE FROM PREVIOUS RUNS WHICH KEPT THINGS DRY. WILL KEEP POPS
MINIMAL FOR NOW UNTIL THE MOISTURE RETURN LOOKS MORE SOLID.

&&

.AVIATION...
SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA INCLUDING KPHX...KIWA...AND KSDL...

AN ACTIVE START TO THE AFTERNOON WITH QUITE A BIT OF STORM ACTIVITY
ALREADY FIRING OVER THE MOUNTAINS TO THE NORTH AND EAST OF PHOENIX.
EVENTUALLY EXPECTING SOME STORM OUTFLOWS TO ALLOW FOR MORE STORM
DEVELOPMENT OVER THE LOWER DESERTS BY LATE AFTERNOON. CONFIDENCE IN
TIMING FOR STORMS IN THE LOWER DESERTS IS STILL SOMEWHAT LOW...BUT
WE MAY SEE SOME OUTFLOWS INTO THE PHOENIX TERMINALS AS SOON AS 22-
00Z AND THEN A SHOT AT SOME THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE EVENING HOURS.
WIND FORECASTS THROUGH MIDNIGHT ARE RATHER TRICKY DUE TO THE STRONG
LIKELIHOOD OF STORM OUTFLOWS AFFECTING THE AREA. THERE IS POTENTIAL
FOR SOME STRONG WIND GUSTS WITH THESE OUTFLOWS AND VISIBILITY
RESTRICTIONS IN DUST OR RAIN.

SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA AND SOUTHWEST ARIZONA INCLUDING KIPL AND
KBLH...

WEST WINDS TO HOLD MOSTLY FOR KIPL THROUGHOUT THE DAY WHILE
SOUTHERLY HEADINGS ARE IN STORE FOR KBLH. SLIGHT CHANCE FOR ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT INTO THE AFTN ALONG THE CO RIVER
VALLEY...SO AT LEAST VCSH MENTION IS BACK IN THE KBLH TAF FOR THE
AFTN/EVENING HOURS.

AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDED TAFS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...
MONSOONAL MOISTURE WILL SLOWLY BEGIN TO THIN ACROSS THE AREA...FIRST
ACROSS THE WESTERN FIRE DISTRICTS AND EVENTUALLY INTO THE ENTIRE
LOWER DESERT ELEVATIONS AND REGION BY EARLY NEXT WEEK. THIS WILL
RELEGATE STORM CHANCES BACK TOWARDS THE HIGHER TERRAIN AND FURTHER
TO THE EAST ACROSS AZ. MINIMUM RH VALUES WILL BEGIN TO SETTLE INTO
THE TEENS WHILE MAKING MOSTLY MODEST TO FAIR OVERNIGHT RECOVERIES.
THE SLIGHTLY DRIER AIRMASS AND BUILDING UPPER RIDGE HEIGHTS WILL
LEND THEMSELVES TOWARD WARMER SFC CONDITIONS...AT OR ABOVE SEASONAL
NORMALS. WINDS WILL FOLLOW FAMILIAR WARM SEASON PATTERNS. BY MIDWEEK
A SUBTLE RETURN OF GULF MOISTURE MAY BOOST AREA HUMIDITIES...BUT NOT
LINGER MUCH THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT CONDITIONS ACCORDING TO STANDARD
OPERATING PROCEDURES.

&&

.PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AZ...NONE.
CA...NONE.
&&

$$

VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/PHOENIX

DISCUSSION...AJ
AVIATION...KUHLMAN
FIRE WEATHER...NOLTE




000
FXUS65 KPSR 312129
AFDPSR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PHOENIX AZ
229 PM MST FRI JUL 31 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS OVER SOUTHERN ARIZONA CAN BE EXPECTED
THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT...LESS SO OVER SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA. STORM
CHANCES WILL TREND DOWN SATURDAY WITH CHANCES LIMITED TO AREAS EAST
OF THE LOWER COLORADO RIVER VALLEY. FURTHER DRYING OCCURS NEXT WEEK
WITH STORM CHANCES CONFINED TO THE HIGHER TERRAIN EAST OF PHOENIX.
TEMPERATURES WILL HOVER NEAR NORMAL THROUGH NEXT WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
REST OF TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY...
EARLY AFTERNOON STORM ACTIVITY ALREADY AFFECTING FRINGES OF PHOENIX
METRO AS OF THIS WRITING. STORMS PRODUCING BOTH STRONG DOWNDRAFTS AND
LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN. SO FAR...GUST FRONTS HAVE LARGELY BEEN UNABLE TO
PRODUCE NEW STORMS. WITH A SHORT WAVE MOVING THROUGH ALONG WITH
EXISTING STORMS...LOWER DESERTS OF SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA WILL STILL
HAVE A GOOD CHANCE OF STORMS.  OVER FAR SOUTHERN ARIZONA...STORMS
HAVE ALSO BEEN AIDED BY AN MCV FROM SONORA. AS THESE FEATURES
CONTINUE TO MOVE WEST AND NORTHWESTWARD...SOUTHWEST ARIZONA AND SOUTHEAST
CALIFORNIA WILL SEE AT LEAST ISOLATED STORMS...ESPECIALLY EAST OF THE
LOWER COLORADO RIVER VALLEY. SOME OF THE HI RES MODELS ARE INDICATING
DEBRIS SHOWERS FROM SONORA LATE TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING AND
THUS KEPT SOME LOW END POPS GOING. FOR SATURDAY AFTERNOON...WE WILL
BE ON THE BACK SIDE OF TODAY/S SHORT WAVE WHICH WOULD SUGGEST A
DOWNTREND IN ACTIVITY. ONE CAVEAT THOUGH IS ANOTHER SHORT WAVE FROM
BAJA WILL APPROACH THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT. THUS HELD ON TO SOME
POPS EAST OF THE LOWER COLORADO RIVER VALLEY...WHERE MOISTURE WILL BE
BETTER. AS THE WAVE MOVES THROUGH SUNDAY IT WEAKENS. IT WILL BE
EMBEDDED WITHIN SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WHICH ADVECTS DRIER AIR INTO
THE DESERTS. SO POPS WILL BE LIMITED TO THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF SOUTH-
CENTRAL ARIZONA.

MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...THE RIDGE REBOUNDS EARLY NEXT WEEK BUT DOES
NOT SETUP IN A FAVORABLE POSITION UNTIL AT LEAST WEDNESDAY. LATEST
GFS AND ECMWF INDICATE SOME MOIST ADVECTION BEGINNING THEN. AS
USUAL...THE ECMWF IS MORE AGGRESSIVE THAN THE GFS. THIS IS A
DEPARTURE FROM PREVIOUS RUNS WHICH KEPT THINGS DRY. WILL KEEP POPS
MINIMAL FOR NOW UNTIL THE MOISTURE RETURN LOOKS MORE SOLID.

&&

.AVIATION...
SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA INCLUDING KPHX...KIWA...AND KSDL...

AN ACTIVE START TO THE AFTERNOON WITH QUITE A BIT OF STORM ACTIVITY
ALREADY FIRING OVER THE MOUNTAINS TO THE NORTH AND EAST OF PHOENIX.
EVENTUALLY EXPECTING SOME STORM OUTFLOWS TO ALLOW FOR MORE STORM
DEVELOPMENT OVER THE LOWER DESERTS BY LATE AFTERNOON. CONFIDENCE IN
TIMING FOR STORMS IN THE LOWER DESERTS IS STILL SOMEWHAT LOW...BUT
WE MAY SEE SOME OUTFLOWS INTO THE PHOENIX TERMINALS AS SOON AS 22-
00Z AND THEN A SHOT AT SOME THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE EVENING HOURS.
WIND FORECASTS THROUGH MIDNIGHT ARE RATHER TRICKY DUE TO THE STRONG
LIKELIHOOD OF STORM OUTFLOWS AFFECTING THE AREA. THERE IS POTENTIAL
FOR SOME STRONG WIND GUSTS WITH THESE OUTFLOWS AND VISIBILITY
RESTRICTIONS IN DUST OR RAIN.

SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA AND SOUTHWEST ARIZONA INCLUDING KIPL AND
KBLH...

WEST WINDS TO HOLD MOSTLY FOR KIPL THROUGHOUT THE DAY WHILE
SOUTHERLY HEADINGS ARE IN STORE FOR KBLH. SLIGHT CHANCE FOR ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT INTO THE AFTN ALONG THE CO RIVER
VALLEY...SO AT LEAST VCSH MENTION IS BACK IN THE KBLH TAF FOR THE
AFTN/EVENING HOURS.

AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDED TAFS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...
MONSOONAL MOISTURE WILL SLOWLY BEGIN TO THIN ACROSS THE AREA...FIRST
ACROSS THE WESTERN FIRE DISTRICTS AND EVENTUALLY INTO THE ENTIRE
LOWER DESERT ELEVATIONS AND REGION BY EARLY NEXT WEEK. THIS WILL
RELEGATE STORM CHANCES BACK TOWARDS THE HIGHER TERRAIN AND FURTHER
TO THE EAST ACROSS AZ. MINIMUM RH VALUES WILL BEGIN TO SETTLE INTO
THE TEENS WHILE MAKING MOSTLY MODEST TO FAIR OVERNIGHT RECOVERIES.
THE SLIGHTLY DRIER AIRMASS AND BUILDING UPPER RIDGE HEIGHTS WILL
LEND THEMSELVES TOWARD WARMER SFC CONDITIONS...AT OR ABOVE SEASONAL
NORMALS. WINDS WILL FOLLOW FAMILIAR WARM SEASON PATTERNS. BY MIDWEEK
A SUBTLE RETURN OF GULF MOISTURE MAY BOOST AREA HUMIDITIES...BUT NOT
LINGER MUCH THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT CONDITIONS ACCORDING TO STANDARD
OPERATING PROCEDURES.

&&

.PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AZ...NONE.
CA...NONE.
&&

$$

VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/PHOENIX

DISCUSSION...AJ
AVIATION...KUHLMAN
FIRE WEATHER...NOLTE




000
FXUS65 KTWC 312125
AFDTWC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ
225 PM MST FRI JUL 31 2015

.SYNOPSIS...A MORE ACTIVE THUNDERSTORM DAY ACROSS SOUTHEAST ARIZONA
TODAY. ALTHOUGH SOME DRIER AIR WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA THIS
WEEKEND INTO NEXT WEEK...THERE WILL BE ENOUGH MOISTURE AROUND FOR A
CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...MAINLY ALONG THE INTERNATIONAL
BORDER AS WELL AS THE MOUNTAIN TOPS.

&&

.DISCUSSION...WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND 31/12Z UPPER-AIR PLOTS SHOW
THE CENTER OF HIGH PRESSURE IN THE GENERAL VICINITY OF THE TEXAS
PANHANDLE...WITH A PACIFIC LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WELL OFF THE SOUTHERN
CALIFORNIA AND NORTHERN BAJA COASTS.

WHAT A DIFFERENCE 12 HOURS CAN MAKE. YESTERDAYS 31/00Z KTWC SOUNDING
REVEALED A PW OF 1.10 INCHES AND THE 31/12Z KTWC SOUNDING CAME IN
WITH A PW OF 1.68 INCHES. THIS MORNINGS SOUNDING PARAMETERS SHOWED A
MU CAPE OF AROUND 2200 J/KG AND A LIFTED INDEX OF MINUS 6. THE MOST
RECENT RADAR MOSAIC SHOWS SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUING TO PROGRESS WESTWARD WEST OF AJO AND ORGAN
PIPE. ELSEWHERE ACROSS SOUTHEAST ARIZONA...ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS HAVE BEEN DEVELOPING DURING THE PAST HOUR OR TWO...
WITH CELLS EXTENDING FROM EAST OF ELOY TO PICTURE ROCKS AND TOWARD
ARIVACA. WEAK SHOWERS HAVE ALSO DEVELOPED OVER PARTS OF THE TUCSON
METRO AS WELL. ADDITIONAL CELLS ARE OCCURRING OVER THE HIGHER
TERRAIN OF GRAHAM...GREENLEE AND SANTA CRUZ COUNTIES...WITH ACTIVITY
MOVING WEST OR WEST NORTHWEST AT 5 TO 10 MPH.

U OF A 12Z WRF/NAM & GFS...AS WELL AS HRRR ALL SUGGEST THAT STORMS
WILL CONTINUE TO BLOSSOM OVER CENTRAL AND WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE
FORECAST AREA THIS AFTERNOON AND PUSH TO THE WEST OR WEST NORTHWEST
EARLY THIS EVENING. ACTIVITY NOT AS WIDESPREAD BETWEEN TUCSON AND
THE NEW MEXICO BORDER...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE MOUNTAIN TOPS.

KEPT A MENTION OF BLOWING DUST OVER PARTS OF PIMA AND PINAL COUNTIES
LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY THIS EVENING AS STORMS EXPECTED TO
FIRE OFF AND MOVE IN THAT GENERAL DIRECTION. THIS ALSO MESHES WELL
WITH THE FORECAST FROM THE PHOENIX OFFICE.

MODELS INDICATE THAT A WEAK DISTURBANCE COMING UP FROM THE SOUTH
WILL MOVE ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL ARIZONA THIS EVENING AND THEN OVER
SOUTHWEST ARIZONA EARLY SATURDAY AND WESTERN ARIZONA MIDDAY
SATURDAY. AS THIS OCCURS...THIS SYSTEM WILL HELP TO ENHANCE ACTIVITY
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...BUT BY SATURDAY WE SHOULD SEE LESS
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY AS THIS SYSTEM WILL BE OVER SRN NEVADA LATE IN
THE AFTERNOON AND MOISTURE IS EXPECTED TO DECREASE A BIT LATE IN THE
AFTERNOON OR INTO THE EVENING.

BY SUNDAY AND CONTINUING THROUGH AROUND WEDNESDAY THE HIGH IS
EXPECTED TO RECONSOLIDATE IN A WEST TO EAST ORIENTATION ACROSS
NORTHERN MEXICO AND THEN MOVE NORTH OVER THE DESERT SOUTHWEST BY
TUESDAY. AS A RESULT...DRIER SOUTHWEST TO WEST FLOW WILL REDUCE RAIN
CHANCES A BIT AND KEEP THE BEST THREAT FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS...MAINLY BETWEEN NOGALES AND DOUGLAS AS WELL AS THE
WHITE MOUNTAINS. THIS WILL ALSO RESULT IN WARMER DAYTIME TEMPS
MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

FOR LATE WEEK THE HIGH WILL SHIFT TOWARD THE EAST AND RESULT IN A
RETURN FLOW FROM THE SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST AND PULL IN MORE MOISTURE
AND INCREASING THUNDERSTORM CHANCES...BUT STILL JUST ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED IN NATURE.

FOR TUCSON...HIGHS WILL BE NEAR NORMAL SATURDAY...THEN 4 TO 7 DEGS
ABOVE NORMAL EACH DAY THROUGH FRIDAY. HOWEVER...THE WARMEST DAY WILL
LIKELY OCCUR TUESDAY. LOWS WILL RANGE FROM 2 TO 4 DEGS ABOVE NORMAL
EACH MORNING. HOWEVER...THE COOLEST MORNINGS WILL LIKELY OCCUR
MONDAY AND TUESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...VALID THRU 02/00Z.
SCT TO BKN CLOUDS 7-10K FT AGL WITH SCT-NMRS SHRA/TSRA GENERALLY
BEFORE 01/04Z...AND MAINLY WEST OF A LINE FROM KOLS TO KSAD AND IN
THE WHITE MOUNTAINS. BRIEF MVFR CONDITIONS WITH ERRATIC WIND GUSTS
TO 45 KTS POSSIBLE IN AND AROUND THE STRONGER TSRA. AREAS OF BLDU
PSBL W AND NW OF KTUS AFT 31/22Z. OUTSIDE OF STORM INFLUENCES SFC
WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE LESS THAN 12 KTS WITH A FEW HIGHER GUSTS IN
THE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING HOURS. SHRA/TSRA WILL OCCUR AGAIN
SATURDAY AFTERNOON...ALTHOUGH WITH LESS COVERAGE THAN TODAY.
AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR TAF AMENDMENTS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
TODAY WITH STRONG OUTFLOW WINDS LIKELY...ESPECIALLY FROM TUCSON
WEST. SATURDAY WILL SEE SLIGHTLY LESS CONVECTION. INCREASING SW
WINDS ALOFT ON SUNDAY WILL BRING DRIER AIR INTO THE REGION FOR
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE TO BEGIN NEXT
WEEK...WITH A FOCUS MAINLY SOUTH AND EAST OF TUCSON. OUTSIDE OF
THUNDERSTORM WIND GUSTS...20-FT WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE TERRAIN
DRIVEN AND LESS THAN 15 MPH. HOWEVER SOME AFTERNOON AND EARLY
EVENING BREEZINESS IS LIKELY DUE TO DAYTIME HEATING...ESPECIALLY
THROUGH THE GILA VALLEY NEAR SAFFORD.

&&

.TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC...MOLLERE
AVIATION/FIRE WEATHER...FRENCH

VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...YOUTUBE...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/TUCSON



000
FXUS65 KTWC 312125
AFDTWC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ
225 PM MST FRI JUL 31 2015

.SYNOPSIS...A MORE ACTIVE THUNDERSTORM DAY ACROSS SOUTHEAST ARIZONA
TODAY. ALTHOUGH SOME DRIER AIR WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA THIS
WEEKEND INTO NEXT WEEK...THERE WILL BE ENOUGH MOISTURE AROUND FOR A
CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...MAINLY ALONG THE INTERNATIONAL
BORDER AS WELL AS THE MOUNTAIN TOPS.

&&

.DISCUSSION...WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND 31/12Z UPPER-AIR PLOTS SHOW
THE CENTER OF HIGH PRESSURE IN THE GENERAL VICINITY OF THE TEXAS
PANHANDLE...WITH A PACIFIC LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WELL OFF THE SOUTHERN
CALIFORNIA AND NORTHERN BAJA COASTS.

WHAT A DIFFERENCE 12 HOURS CAN MAKE. YESTERDAYS 31/00Z KTWC SOUNDING
REVEALED A PW OF 1.10 INCHES AND THE 31/12Z KTWC SOUNDING CAME IN
WITH A PW OF 1.68 INCHES. THIS MORNINGS SOUNDING PARAMETERS SHOWED A
MU CAPE OF AROUND 2200 J/KG AND A LIFTED INDEX OF MINUS 6. THE MOST
RECENT RADAR MOSAIC SHOWS SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUING TO PROGRESS WESTWARD WEST OF AJO AND ORGAN
PIPE. ELSEWHERE ACROSS SOUTHEAST ARIZONA...ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS HAVE BEEN DEVELOPING DURING THE PAST HOUR OR TWO...
WITH CELLS EXTENDING FROM EAST OF ELOY TO PICTURE ROCKS AND TOWARD
ARIVACA. WEAK SHOWERS HAVE ALSO DEVELOPED OVER PARTS OF THE TUCSON
METRO AS WELL. ADDITIONAL CELLS ARE OCCURRING OVER THE HIGHER
TERRAIN OF GRAHAM...GREENLEE AND SANTA CRUZ COUNTIES...WITH ACTIVITY
MOVING WEST OR WEST NORTHWEST AT 5 TO 10 MPH.

U OF A 12Z WRF/NAM & GFS...AS WELL AS HRRR ALL SUGGEST THAT STORMS
WILL CONTINUE TO BLOSSOM OVER CENTRAL AND WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE
FORECAST AREA THIS AFTERNOON AND PUSH TO THE WEST OR WEST NORTHWEST
EARLY THIS EVENING. ACTIVITY NOT AS WIDESPREAD BETWEEN TUCSON AND
THE NEW MEXICO BORDER...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE MOUNTAIN TOPS.

KEPT A MENTION OF BLOWING DUST OVER PARTS OF PIMA AND PINAL COUNTIES
LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY THIS EVENING AS STORMS EXPECTED TO
FIRE OFF AND MOVE IN THAT GENERAL DIRECTION. THIS ALSO MESHES WELL
WITH THE FORECAST FROM THE PHOENIX OFFICE.

MODELS INDICATE THAT A WEAK DISTURBANCE COMING UP FROM THE SOUTH
WILL MOVE ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL ARIZONA THIS EVENING AND THEN OVER
SOUTHWEST ARIZONA EARLY SATURDAY AND WESTERN ARIZONA MIDDAY
SATURDAY. AS THIS OCCURS...THIS SYSTEM WILL HELP TO ENHANCE ACTIVITY
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...BUT BY SATURDAY WE SHOULD SEE LESS
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY AS THIS SYSTEM WILL BE OVER SRN NEVADA LATE IN
THE AFTERNOON AND MOISTURE IS EXPECTED TO DECREASE A BIT LATE IN THE
AFTERNOON OR INTO THE EVENING.

BY SUNDAY AND CONTINUING THROUGH AROUND WEDNESDAY THE HIGH IS
EXPECTED TO RECONSOLIDATE IN A WEST TO EAST ORIENTATION ACROSS
NORTHERN MEXICO AND THEN MOVE NORTH OVER THE DESERT SOUTHWEST BY
TUESDAY. AS A RESULT...DRIER SOUTHWEST TO WEST FLOW WILL REDUCE RAIN
CHANCES A BIT AND KEEP THE BEST THREAT FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS...MAINLY BETWEEN NOGALES AND DOUGLAS AS WELL AS THE
WHITE MOUNTAINS. THIS WILL ALSO RESULT IN WARMER DAYTIME TEMPS
MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

FOR LATE WEEK THE HIGH WILL SHIFT TOWARD THE EAST AND RESULT IN A
RETURN FLOW FROM THE SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST AND PULL IN MORE MOISTURE
AND INCREASING THUNDERSTORM CHANCES...BUT STILL JUST ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED IN NATURE.

FOR TUCSON...HIGHS WILL BE NEAR NORMAL SATURDAY...THEN 4 TO 7 DEGS
ABOVE NORMAL EACH DAY THROUGH FRIDAY. HOWEVER...THE WARMEST DAY WILL
LIKELY OCCUR TUESDAY. LOWS WILL RANGE FROM 2 TO 4 DEGS ABOVE NORMAL
EACH MORNING. HOWEVER...THE COOLEST MORNINGS WILL LIKELY OCCUR
MONDAY AND TUESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...VALID THRU 02/00Z.
SCT TO BKN CLOUDS 7-10K FT AGL WITH SCT-NMRS SHRA/TSRA GENERALLY
BEFORE 01/04Z...AND MAINLY WEST OF A LINE FROM KOLS TO KSAD AND IN
THE WHITE MOUNTAINS. BRIEF MVFR CONDITIONS WITH ERRATIC WIND GUSTS
TO 45 KTS POSSIBLE IN AND AROUND THE STRONGER TSRA. AREAS OF BLDU
PSBL W AND NW OF KTUS AFT 31/22Z. OUTSIDE OF STORM INFLUENCES SFC
WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE LESS THAN 12 KTS WITH A FEW HIGHER GUSTS IN
THE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING HOURS. SHRA/TSRA WILL OCCUR AGAIN
SATURDAY AFTERNOON...ALTHOUGH WITH LESS COVERAGE THAN TODAY.
AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR TAF AMENDMENTS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
TODAY WITH STRONG OUTFLOW WINDS LIKELY...ESPECIALLY FROM TUCSON
WEST. SATURDAY WILL SEE SLIGHTLY LESS CONVECTION. INCREASING SW
WINDS ALOFT ON SUNDAY WILL BRING DRIER AIR INTO THE REGION FOR
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE TO BEGIN NEXT
WEEK...WITH A FOCUS MAINLY SOUTH AND EAST OF TUCSON. OUTSIDE OF
THUNDERSTORM WIND GUSTS...20-FT WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE TERRAIN
DRIVEN AND LESS THAN 15 MPH. HOWEVER SOME AFTERNOON AND EARLY
EVENING BREEZINESS IS LIKELY DUE TO DAYTIME HEATING...ESPECIALLY
THROUGH THE GILA VALLEY NEAR SAFFORD.

&&

.TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC...MOLLERE
AVIATION/FIRE WEATHER...FRENCH

VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...YOUTUBE...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/TUCSON




000
FXUS65 KTWC 312125
AFDTWC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ
225 PM MST FRI JUL 31 2015

.SYNOPSIS...A MORE ACTIVE THUNDERSTORM DAY ACROSS SOUTHEAST ARIZONA
TODAY. ALTHOUGH SOME DRIER AIR WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA THIS
WEEKEND INTO NEXT WEEK...THERE WILL BE ENOUGH MOISTURE AROUND FOR A
CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...MAINLY ALONG THE INTERNATIONAL
BORDER AS WELL AS THE MOUNTAIN TOPS.

&&

.DISCUSSION...WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND 31/12Z UPPER-AIR PLOTS SHOW
THE CENTER OF HIGH PRESSURE IN THE GENERAL VICINITY OF THE TEXAS
PANHANDLE...WITH A PACIFIC LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WELL OFF THE SOUTHERN
CALIFORNIA AND NORTHERN BAJA COASTS.

WHAT A DIFFERENCE 12 HOURS CAN MAKE. YESTERDAYS 31/00Z KTWC SOUNDING
REVEALED A PW OF 1.10 INCHES AND THE 31/12Z KTWC SOUNDING CAME IN
WITH A PW OF 1.68 INCHES. THIS MORNINGS SOUNDING PARAMETERS SHOWED A
MU CAPE OF AROUND 2200 J/KG AND A LIFTED INDEX OF MINUS 6. THE MOST
RECENT RADAR MOSAIC SHOWS SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUING TO PROGRESS WESTWARD WEST OF AJO AND ORGAN
PIPE. ELSEWHERE ACROSS SOUTHEAST ARIZONA...ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS HAVE BEEN DEVELOPING DURING THE PAST HOUR OR TWO...
WITH CELLS EXTENDING FROM EAST OF ELOY TO PICTURE ROCKS AND TOWARD
ARIVACA. WEAK SHOWERS HAVE ALSO DEVELOPED OVER PARTS OF THE TUCSON
METRO AS WELL. ADDITIONAL CELLS ARE OCCURRING OVER THE HIGHER
TERRAIN OF GRAHAM...GREENLEE AND SANTA CRUZ COUNTIES...WITH ACTIVITY
MOVING WEST OR WEST NORTHWEST AT 5 TO 10 MPH.

U OF A 12Z WRF/NAM & GFS...AS WELL AS HRRR ALL SUGGEST THAT STORMS
WILL CONTINUE TO BLOSSOM OVER CENTRAL AND WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE
FORECAST AREA THIS AFTERNOON AND PUSH TO THE WEST OR WEST NORTHWEST
EARLY THIS EVENING. ACTIVITY NOT AS WIDESPREAD BETWEEN TUCSON AND
THE NEW MEXICO BORDER...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE MOUNTAIN TOPS.

KEPT A MENTION OF BLOWING DUST OVER PARTS OF PIMA AND PINAL COUNTIES
LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY THIS EVENING AS STORMS EXPECTED TO
FIRE OFF AND MOVE IN THAT GENERAL DIRECTION. THIS ALSO MESHES WELL
WITH THE FORECAST FROM THE PHOENIX OFFICE.

MODELS INDICATE THAT A WEAK DISTURBANCE COMING UP FROM THE SOUTH
WILL MOVE ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL ARIZONA THIS EVENING AND THEN OVER
SOUTHWEST ARIZONA EARLY SATURDAY AND WESTERN ARIZONA MIDDAY
SATURDAY. AS THIS OCCURS...THIS SYSTEM WILL HELP TO ENHANCE ACTIVITY
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...BUT BY SATURDAY WE SHOULD SEE LESS
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY AS THIS SYSTEM WILL BE OVER SRN NEVADA LATE IN
THE AFTERNOON AND MOISTURE IS EXPECTED TO DECREASE A BIT LATE IN THE
AFTERNOON OR INTO THE EVENING.

BY SUNDAY AND CONTINUING THROUGH AROUND WEDNESDAY THE HIGH IS
EXPECTED TO RECONSOLIDATE IN A WEST TO EAST ORIENTATION ACROSS
NORTHERN MEXICO AND THEN MOVE NORTH OVER THE DESERT SOUTHWEST BY
TUESDAY. AS A RESULT...DRIER SOUTHWEST TO WEST FLOW WILL REDUCE RAIN
CHANCES A BIT AND KEEP THE BEST THREAT FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS...MAINLY BETWEEN NOGALES AND DOUGLAS AS WELL AS THE
WHITE MOUNTAINS. THIS WILL ALSO RESULT IN WARMER DAYTIME TEMPS
MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

FOR LATE WEEK THE HIGH WILL SHIFT TOWARD THE EAST AND RESULT IN A
RETURN FLOW FROM THE SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST AND PULL IN MORE MOISTURE
AND INCREASING THUNDERSTORM CHANCES...BUT STILL JUST ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED IN NATURE.

FOR TUCSON...HIGHS WILL BE NEAR NORMAL SATURDAY...THEN 4 TO 7 DEGS
ABOVE NORMAL EACH DAY THROUGH FRIDAY. HOWEVER...THE WARMEST DAY WILL
LIKELY OCCUR TUESDAY. LOWS WILL RANGE FROM 2 TO 4 DEGS ABOVE NORMAL
EACH MORNING. HOWEVER...THE COOLEST MORNINGS WILL LIKELY OCCUR
MONDAY AND TUESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...VALID THRU 02/00Z.
SCT TO BKN CLOUDS 7-10K FT AGL WITH SCT-NMRS SHRA/TSRA GENERALLY
BEFORE 01/04Z...AND MAINLY WEST OF A LINE FROM KOLS TO KSAD AND IN
THE WHITE MOUNTAINS. BRIEF MVFR CONDITIONS WITH ERRATIC WIND GUSTS
TO 45 KTS POSSIBLE IN AND AROUND THE STRONGER TSRA. AREAS OF BLDU
PSBL W AND NW OF KTUS AFT 31/22Z. OUTSIDE OF STORM INFLUENCES SFC
WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE LESS THAN 12 KTS WITH A FEW HIGHER GUSTS IN
THE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING HOURS. SHRA/TSRA WILL OCCUR AGAIN
SATURDAY AFTERNOON...ALTHOUGH WITH LESS COVERAGE THAN TODAY.
AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR TAF AMENDMENTS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
TODAY WITH STRONG OUTFLOW WINDS LIKELY...ESPECIALLY FROM TUCSON
WEST. SATURDAY WILL SEE SLIGHTLY LESS CONVECTION. INCREASING SW
WINDS ALOFT ON SUNDAY WILL BRING DRIER AIR INTO THE REGION FOR
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE TO BEGIN NEXT
WEEK...WITH A FOCUS MAINLY SOUTH AND EAST OF TUCSON. OUTSIDE OF
THUNDERSTORM WIND GUSTS...20-FT WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE TERRAIN
DRIVEN AND LESS THAN 15 MPH. HOWEVER SOME AFTERNOON AND EARLY
EVENING BREEZINESS IS LIKELY DUE TO DAYTIME HEATING...ESPECIALLY
THROUGH THE GILA VALLEY NEAR SAFFORD.

&&

.TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC...MOLLERE
AVIATION/FIRE WEATHER...FRENCH

VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...YOUTUBE...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/TUCSON




000
FXUS65 KTWC 312125
AFDTWC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ
225 PM MST FRI JUL 31 2015

.SYNOPSIS...A MORE ACTIVE THUNDERSTORM DAY ACROSS SOUTHEAST ARIZONA
TODAY. ALTHOUGH SOME DRIER AIR WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA THIS
WEEKEND INTO NEXT WEEK...THERE WILL BE ENOUGH MOISTURE AROUND FOR A
CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...MAINLY ALONG THE INTERNATIONAL
BORDER AS WELL AS THE MOUNTAIN TOPS.

&&

.DISCUSSION...WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND 31/12Z UPPER-AIR PLOTS SHOW
THE CENTER OF HIGH PRESSURE IN THE GENERAL VICINITY OF THE TEXAS
PANHANDLE...WITH A PACIFIC LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WELL OFF THE SOUTHERN
CALIFORNIA AND NORTHERN BAJA COASTS.

WHAT A DIFFERENCE 12 HOURS CAN MAKE. YESTERDAYS 31/00Z KTWC SOUNDING
REVEALED A PW OF 1.10 INCHES AND THE 31/12Z KTWC SOUNDING CAME IN
WITH A PW OF 1.68 INCHES. THIS MORNINGS SOUNDING PARAMETERS SHOWED A
MU CAPE OF AROUND 2200 J/KG AND A LIFTED INDEX OF MINUS 6. THE MOST
RECENT RADAR MOSAIC SHOWS SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUING TO PROGRESS WESTWARD WEST OF AJO AND ORGAN
PIPE. ELSEWHERE ACROSS SOUTHEAST ARIZONA...ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS HAVE BEEN DEVELOPING DURING THE PAST HOUR OR TWO...
WITH CELLS EXTENDING FROM EAST OF ELOY TO PICTURE ROCKS AND TOWARD
ARIVACA. WEAK SHOWERS HAVE ALSO DEVELOPED OVER PARTS OF THE TUCSON
METRO AS WELL. ADDITIONAL CELLS ARE OCCURRING OVER THE HIGHER
TERRAIN OF GRAHAM...GREENLEE AND SANTA CRUZ COUNTIES...WITH ACTIVITY
MOVING WEST OR WEST NORTHWEST AT 5 TO 10 MPH.

U OF A 12Z WRF/NAM & GFS...AS WELL AS HRRR ALL SUGGEST THAT STORMS
WILL CONTINUE TO BLOSSOM OVER CENTRAL AND WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE
FORECAST AREA THIS AFTERNOON AND PUSH TO THE WEST OR WEST NORTHWEST
EARLY THIS EVENING. ACTIVITY NOT AS WIDESPREAD BETWEEN TUCSON AND
THE NEW MEXICO BORDER...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE MOUNTAIN TOPS.

KEPT A MENTION OF BLOWING DUST OVER PARTS OF PIMA AND PINAL COUNTIES
LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY THIS EVENING AS STORMS EXPECTED TO
FIRE OFF AND MOVE IN THAT GENERAL DIRECTION. THIS ALSO MESHES WELL
WITH THE FORECAST FROM THE PHOENIX OFFICE.

MODELS INDICATE THAT A WEAK DISTURBANCE COMING UP FROM THE SOUTH
WILL MOVE ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL ARIZONA THIS EVENING AND THEN OVER
SOUTHWEST ARIZONA EARLY SATURDAY AND WESTERN ARIZONA MIDDAY
SATURDAY. AS THIS OCCURS...THIS SYSTEM WILL HELP TO ENHANCE ACTIVITY
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...BUT BY SATURDAY WE SHOULD SEE LESS
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY AS THIS SYSTEM WILL BE OVER SRN NEVADA LATE IN
THE AFTERNOON AND MOISTURE IS EXPECTED TO DECREASE A BIT LATE IN THE
AFTERNOON OR INTO THE EVENING.

BY SUNDAY AND CONTINUING THROUGH AROUND WEDNESDAY THE HIGH IS
EXPECTED TO RECONSOLIDATE IN A WEST TO EAST ORIENTATION ACROSS
NORTHERN MEXICO AND THEN MOVE NORTH OVER THE DESERT SOUTHWEST BY
TUESDAY. AS A RESULT...DRIER SOUTHWEST TO WEST FLOW WILL REDUCE RAIN
CHANCES A BIT AND KEEP THE BEST THREAT FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS...MAINLY BETWEEN NOGALES AND DOUGLAS AS WELL AS THE
WHITE MOUNTAINS. THIS WILL ALSO RESULT IN WARMER DAYTIME TEMPS
MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

FOR LATE WEEK THE HIGH WILL SHIFT TOWARD THE EAST AND RESULT IN A
RETURN FLOW FROM THE SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST AND PULL IN MORE MOISTURE
AND INCREASING THUNDERSTORM CHANCES...BUT STILL JUST ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED IN NATURE.

FOR TUCSON...HIGHS WILL BE NEAR NORMAL SATURDAY...THEN 4 TO 7 DEGS
ABOVE NORMAL EACH DAY THROUGH FRIDAY. HOWEVER...THE WARMEST DAY WILL
LIKELY OCCUR TUESDAY. LOWS WILL RANGE FROM 2 TO 4 DEGS ABOVE NORMAL
EACH MORNING. HOWEVER...THE COOLEST MORNINGS WILL LIKELY OCCUR
MONDAY AND TUESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...VALID THRU 02/00Z.
SCT TO BKN CLOUDS 7-10K FT AGL WITH SCT-NMRS SHRA/TSRA GENERALLY
BEFORE 01/04Z...AND MAINLY WEST OF A LINE FROM KOLS TO KSAD AND IN
THE WHITE MOUNTAINS. BRIEF MVFR CONDITIONS WITH ERRATIC WIND GUSTS
TO 45 KTS POSSIBLE IN AND AROUND THE STRONGER TSRA. AREAS OF BLDU
PSBL W AND NW OF KTUS AFT 31/22Z. OUTSIDE OF STORM INFLUENCES SFC
WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE LESS THAN 12 KTS WITH A FEW HIGHER GUSTS IN
THE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING HOURS. SHRA/TSRA WILL OCCUR AGAIN
SATURDAY AFTERNOON...ALTHOUGH WITH LESS COVERAGE THAN TODAY.
AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR TAF AMENDMENTS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
TODAY WITH STRONG OUTFLOW WINDS LIKELY...ESPECIALLY FROM TUCSON
WEST. SATURDAY WILL SEE SLIGHTLY LESS CONVECTION. INCREASING SW
WINDS ALOFT ON SUNDAY WILL BRING DRIER AIR INTO THE REGION FOR
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE TO BEGIN NEXT
WEEK...WITH A FOCUS MAINLY SOUTH AND EAST OF TUCSON. OUTSIDE OF
THUNDERSTORM WIND GUSTS...20-FT WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE TERRAIN
DRIVEN AND LESS THAN 15 MPH. HOWEVER SOME AFTERNOON AND EARLY
EVENING BREEZINESS IS LIKELY DUE TO DAYTIME HEATING...ESPECIALLY
THROUGH THE GILA VALLEY NEAR SAFFORD.

&&

.TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC...MOLLERE
AVIATION/FIRE WEATHER...FRENCH

VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...YOUTUBE...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/TUCSON




000
FXUS65 KTWC 312125
AFDTWC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ
225 PM MST FRI JUL 31 2015

.SYNOPSIS...A MORE ACTIVE THUNDERSTORM DAY ACROSS SOUTHEAST ARIZONA
TODAY. ALTHOUGH SOME DRIER AIR WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA THIS
WEEKEND INTO NEXT WEEK...THERE WILL BE ENOUGH MOISTURE AROUND FOR A
CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...MAINLY ALONG THE INTERNATIONAL
BORDER AS WELL AS THE MOUNTAIN TOPS.

&&

.DISCUSSION...WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND 31/12Z UPPER-AIR PLOTS SHOW
THE CENTER OF HIGH PRESSURE IN THE GENERAL VICINITY OF THE TEXAS
PANHANDLE...WITH A PACIFIC LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WELL OFF THE SOUTHERN
CALIFORNIA AND NORTHERN BAJA COASTS.

WHAT A DIFFERENCE 12 HOURS CAN MAKE. YESTERDAYS 31/00Z KTWC SOUNDING
REVEALED A PW OF 1.10 INCHES AND THE 31/12Z KTWC SOUNDING CAME IN
WITH A PW OF 1.68 INCHES. THIS MORNINGS SOUNDING PARAMETERS SHOWED A
MU CAPE OF AROUND 2200 J/KG AND A LIFTED INDEX OF MINUS 6. THE MOST
RECENT RADAR MOSAIC SHOWS SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUING TO PROGRESS WESTWARD WEST OF AJO AND ORGAN
PIPE. ELSEWHERE ACROSS SOUTHEAST ARIZONA...ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS HAVE BEEN DEVELOPING DURING THE PAST HOUR OR TWO...
WITH CELLS EXTENDING FROM EAST OF ELOY TO PICTURE ROCKS AND TOWARD
ARIVACA. WEAK SHOWERS HAVE ALSO DEVELOPED OVER PARTS OF THE TUCSON
METRO AS WELL. ADDITIONAL CELLS ARE OCCURRING OVER THE HIGHER
TERRAIN OF GRAHAM...GREENLEE AND SANTA CRUZ COUNTIES...WITH ACTIVITY
MOVING WEST OR WEST NORTHWEST AT 5 TO 10 MPH.

U OF A 12Z WRF/NAM & GFS...AS WELL AS HRRR ALL SUGGEST THAT STORMS
WILL CONTINUE TO BLOSSOM OVER CENTRAL AND WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE
FORECAST AREA THIS AFTERNOON AND PUSH TO THE WEST OR WEST NORTHWEST
EARLY THIS EVENING. ACTIVITY NOT AS WIDESPREAD BETWEEN TUCSON AND
THE NEW MEXICO BORDER...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE MOUNTAIN TOPS.

KEPT A MENTION OF BLOWING DUST OVER PARTS OF PIMA AND PINAL COUNTIES
LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY THIS EVENING AS STORMS EXPECTED TO
FIRE OFF AND MOVE IN THAT GENERAL DIRECTION. THIS ALSO MESHES WELL
WITH THE FORECAST FROM THE PHOENIX OFFICE.

MODELS INDICATE THAT A WEAK DISTURBANCE COMING UP FROM THE SOUTH
WILL MOVE ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL ARIZONA THIS EVENING AND THEN OVER
SOUTHWEST ARIZONA EARLY SATURDAY AND WESTERN ARIZONA MIDDAY
SATURDAY. AS THIS OCCURS...THIS SYSTEM WILL HELP TO ENHANCE ACTIVITY
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...BUT BY SATURDAY WE SHOULD SEE LESS
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY AS THIS SYSTEM WILL BE OVER SRN NEVADA LATE IN
THE AFTERNOON AND MOISTURE IS EXPECTED TO DECREASE A BIT LATE IN THE
AFTERNOON OR INTO THE EVENING.

BY SUNDAY AND CONTINUING THROUGH AROUND WEDNESDAY THE HIGH IS
EXPECTED TO RECONSOLIDATE IN A WEST TO EAST ORIENTATION ACROSS
NORTHERN MEXICO AND THEN MOVE NORTH OVER THE DESERT SOUTHWEST BY
TUESDAY. AS A RESULT...DRIER SOUTHWEST TO WEST FLOW WILL REDUCE RAIN
CHANCES A BIT AND KEEP THE BEST THREAT FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS...MAINLY BETWEEN NOGALES AND DOUGLAS AS WELL AS THE
WHITE MOUNTAINS. THIS WILL ALSO RESULT IN WARMER DAYTIME TEMPS
MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

FOR LATE WEEK THE HIGH WILL SHIFT TOWARD THE EAST AND RESULT IN A
RETURN FLOW FROM THE SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST AND PULL IN MORE MOISTURE
AND INCREASING THUNDERSTORM CHANCES...BUT STILL JUST ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED IN NATURE.

FOR TUCSON...HIGHS WILL BE NEAR NORMAL SATURDAY...THEN 4 TO 7 DEGS
ABOVE NORMAL EACH DAY THROUGH FRIDAY. HOWEVER...THE WARMEST DAY WILL
LIKELY OCCUR TUESDAY. LOWS WILL RANGE FROM 2 TO 4 DEGS ABOVE NORMAL
EACH MORNING. HOWEVER...THE COOLEST MORNINGS WILL LIKELY OCCUR
MONDAY AND TUESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...VALID THRU 02/00Z.
SCT TO BKN CLOUDS 7-10K FT AGL WITH SCT-NMRS SHRA/TSRA GENERALLY
BEFORE 01/04Z...AND MAINLY WEST OF A LINE FROM KOLS TO KSAD AND IN
THE WHITE MOUNTAINS. BRIEF MVFR CONDITIONS WITH ERRATIC WIND GUSTS
TO 45 KTS POSSIBLE IN AND AROUND THE STRONGER TSRA. AREAS OF BLDU
PSBL W AND NW OF KTUS AFT 31/22Z. OUTSIDE OF STORM INFLUENCES SFC
WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE LESS THAN 12 KTS WITH A FEW HIGHER GUSTS IN
THE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING HOURS. SHRA/TSRA WILL OCCUR AGAIN
SATURDAY AFTERNOON...ALTHOUGH WITH LESS COVERAGE THAN TODAY.
AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR TAF AMENDMENTS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
TODAY WITH STRONG OUTFLOW WINDS LIKELY...ESPECIALLY FROM TUCSON
WEST. SATURDAY WILL SEE SLIGHTLY LESS CONVECTION. INCREASING SW
WINDS ALOFT ON SUNDAY WILL BRING DRIER AIR INTO THE REGION FOR
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE TO BEGIN NEXT
WEEK...WITH A FOCUS MAINLY SOUTH AND EAST OF TUCSON. OUTSIDE OF
THUNDERSTORM WIND GUSTS...20-FT WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE TERRAIN
DRIVEN AND LESS THAN 15 MPH. HOWEVER SOME AFTERNOON AND EARLY
EVENING BREEZINESS IS LIKELY DUE TO DAYTIME HEATING...ESPECIALLY
THROUGH THE GILA VALLEY NEAR SAFFORD.

&&

.TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC...MOLLERE
AVIATION/FIRE WEATHER...FRENCH

VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...YOUTUBE...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/TUCSON




000
FXUS65 KTWC 312125
AFDTWC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ
225 PM MST FRI JUL 31 2015

.SYNOPSIS...A MORE ACTIVE THUNDERSTORM DAY ACROSS SOUTHEAST ARIZONA
TODAY. ALTHOUGH SOME DRIER AIR WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA THIS
WEEKEND INTO NEXT WEEK...THERE WILL BE ENOUGH MOISTURE AROUND FOR A
CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...MAINLY ALONG THE INTERNATIONAL
BORDER AS WELL AS THE MOUNTAIN TOPS.

&&

.DISCUSSION...WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND 31/12Z UPPER-AIR PLOTS SHOW
THE CENTER OF HIGH PRESSURE IN THE GENERAL VICINITY OF THE TEXAS
PANHANDLE...WITH A PACIFIC LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WELL OFF THE SOUTHERN
CALIFORNIA AND NORTHERN BAJA COASTS.

WHAT A DIFFERENCE 12 HOURS CAN MAKE. YESTERDAYS 31/00Z KTWC SOUNDING
REVEALED A PW OF 1.10 INCHES AND THE 31/12Z KTWC SOUNDING CAME IN
WITH A PW OF 1.68 INCHES. THIS MORNINGS SOUNDING PARAMETERS SHOWED A
MU CAPE OF AROUND 2200 J/KG AND A LIFTED INDEX OF MINUS 6. THE MOST
RECENT RADAR MOSAIC SHOWS SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUING TO PROGRESS WESTWARD WEST OF AJO AND ORGAN
PIPE. ELSEWHERE ACROSS SOUTHEAST ARIZONA...ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS HAVE BEEN DEVELOPING DURING THE PAST HOUR OR TWO...
WITH CELLS EXTENDING FROM EAST OF ELOY TO PICTURE ROCKS AND TOWARD
ARIVACA. WEAK SHOWERS HAVE ALSO DEVELOPED OVER PARTS OF THE TUCSON
METRO AS WELL. ADDITIONAL CELLS ARE OCCURRING OVER THE HIGHER
TERRAIN OF GRAHAM...GREENLEE AND SANTA CRUZ COUNTIES...WITH ACTIVITY
MOVING WEST OR WEST NORTHWEST AT 5 TO 10 MPH.

U OF A 12Z WRF/NAM & GFS...AS WELL AS HRRR ALL SUGGEST THAT STORMS
WILL CONTINUE TO BLOSSOM OVER CENTRAL AND WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE
FORECAST AREA THIS AFTERNOON AND PUSH TO THE WEST OR WEST NORTHWEST
EARLY THIS EVENING. ACTIVITY NOT AS WIDESPREAD BETWEEN TUCSON AND
THE NEW MEXICO BORDER...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE MOUNTAIN TOPS.

KEPT A MENTION OF BLOWING DUST OVER PARTS OF PIMA AND PINAL COUNTIES
LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY THIS EVENING AS STORMS EXPECTED TO
FIRE OFF AND MOVE IN THAT GENERAL DIRECTION. THIS ALSO MESHES WELL
WITH THE FORECAST FROM THE PHOENIX OFFICE.

MODELS INDICATE THAT A WEAK DISTURBANCE COMING UP FROM THE SOUTH
WILL MOVE ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL ARIZONA THIS EVENING AND THEN OVER
SOUTHWEST ARIZONA EARLY SATURDAY AND WESTERN ARIZONA MIDDAY
SATURDAY. AS THIS OCCURS...THIS SYSTEM WILL HELP TO ENHANCE ACTIVITY
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...BUT BY SATURDAY WE SHOULD SEE LESS
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY AS THIS SYSTEM WILL BE OVER SRN NEVADA LATE IN
THE AFTERNOON AND MOISTURE IS EXPECTED TO DECREASE A BIT LATE IN THE
AFTERNOON OR INTO THE EVENING.

BY SUNDAY AND CONTINUING THROUGH AROUND WEDNESDAY THE HIGH IS
EXPECTED TO RECONSOLIDATE IN A WEST TO EAST ORIENTATION ACROSS
NORTHERN MEXICO AND THEN MOVE NORTH OVER THE DESERT SOUTHWEST BY
TUESDAY. AS A RESULT...DRIER SOUTHWEST TO WEST FLOW WILL REDUCE RAIN
CHANCES A BIT AND KEEP THE BEST THREAT FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS...MAINLY BETWEEN NOGALES AND DOUGLAS AS WELL AS THE
WHITE MOUNTAINS. THIS WILL ALSO RESULT IN WARMER DAYTIME TEMPS
MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

FOR LATE WEEK THE HIGH WILL SHIFT TOWARD THE EAST AND RESULT IN A
RETURN FLOW FROM THE SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST AND PULL IN MORE MOISTURE
AND INCREASING THUNDERSTORM CHANCES...BUT STILL JUST ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED IN NATURE.

FOR TUCSON...HIGHS WILL BE NEAR NORMAL SATURDAY...THEN 4 TO 7 DEGS
ABOVE NORMAL EACH DAY THROUGH FRIDAY. HOWEVER...THE WARMEST DAY WILL
LIKELY OCCUR TUESDAY. LOWS WILL RANGE FROM 2 TO 4 DEGS ABOVE NORMAL
EACH MORNING. HOWEVER...THE COOLEST MORNINGS WILL LIKELY OCCUR
MONDAY AND TUESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...VALID THRU 02/00Z.
SCT TO BKN CLOUDS 7-10K FT AGL WITH SCT-NMRS SHRA/TSRA GENERALLY
BEFORE 01/04Z...AND MAINLY WEST OF A LINE FROM KOLS TO KSAD AND IN
THE WHITE MOUNTAINS. BRIEF MVFR CONDITIONS WITH ERRATIC WIND GUSTS
TO 45 KTS POSSIBLE IN AND AROUND THE STRONGER TSRA. AREAS OF BLDU
PSBL W AND NW OF KTUS AFT 31/22Z. OUTSIDE OF STORM INFLUENCES SFC
WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE LESS THAN 12 KTS WITH A FEW HIGHER GUSTS IN
THE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING HOURS. SHRA/TSRA WILL OCCUR AGAIN
SATURDAY AFTERNOON...ALTHOUGH WITH LESS COVERAGE THAN TODAY.
AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR TAF AMENDMENTS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
TODAY WITH STRONG OUTFLOW WINDS LIKELY...ESPECIALLY FROM TUCSON
WEST. SATURDAY WILL SEE SLIGHTLY LESS CONVECTION. INCREASING SW
WINDS ALOFT ON SUNDAY WILL BRING DRIER AIR INTO THE REGION FOR
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE TO BEGIN NEXT
WEEK...WITH A FOCUS MAINLY SOUTH AND EAST OF TUCSON. OUTSIDE OF
THUNDERSTORM WIND GUSTS...20-FT WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE TERRAIN
DRIVEN AND LESS THAN 15 MPH. HOWEVER SOME AFTERNOON AND EARLY
EVENING BREEZINESS IS LIKELY DUE TO DAYTIME HEATING...ESPECIALLY
THROUGH THE GILA VALLEY NEAR SAFFORD.

&&

.TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC...MOLLERE
AVIATION/FIRE WEATHER...FRENCH

VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...YOUTUBE...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/TUCSON




000
FXUS65 KPSR 311934
AFDPSR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PHOENIX AZ
1234 PM MST FRI JUL 31 2015

.UPDATE...UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION...

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED STORM ACTIVITY IS ANTICIPATED OVER ARIZONA AND
SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA AGAIN TODAY. A NOTABLE DOWNTREND IN MOISTURE
FROM WEST TO EAST IS EXPECTED OVER THE WEEKEND. THIS WILL KEEP STORM
CHANCES LIMITED TO SOUTH- CENTRAL ARIZONA WELL INTO NEXT WEEK.
TEMPERATURES WILL NOT CHANGE MUCH DAY TO DAY REMAINING AT OR ABOVE
SEASONABLE AVERAGE.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
ISOLATED STORM ACTIVITY ALREADY GOING THIS MORNING ALONG OUR
BOUNDARY WITH TWC CWA AND ADDITIONAL SHOWERS FURTHER SOUTH. THESE
APPEAR TO BE INFLUENCED BY REMNANTS OF A COUPLE OF OVERNIGHT MCS/S.
THERE ALSO LOOKS TO BE A BACKDOOR FRONT THAT HAS PUSHED THROUGH MUCH
OF NEW MEXICO. SO THERE COULD BE A COUPLE OF MCV/S AFFECTING THE AREA
TODAY...AND SOME OF THE HIGH RES MODELS DEPICT THAT. UNFORTUNATELY
NONE OF THE HIGH RES MODELS HAVE CAPTURED THIS MORNING/S ACTIVITY
VERY WELL...EVEN THE ONES THAT DID HANDLE THE EARLIER MCS/S FAIRLY
WELL. THE HRRR RUNS THIS MORNING HAVE BEEN INDICATING DEVELOPMENT
OVER SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA...INCLUDING THE LOWER DESERTS...EARLIER
IN THE DAY THAN IS TYPICAL. OVERALL...NOT A LOT OF GOOD AGREEMENT
AMONGST THE MODELS ON THE SPATIAL COVERAGE OF STORMS. ONE SIMILARITY
IS THAT THERE SHOULD BE MORE STORMS OVER SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA TODAY
THAN YESTERDAY. WILL MAKE SOME ADDITIONAL UPWARD ADJUSTMENTS TO POPS.
MORE LATER.

&&

.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION 334 AM MST/PDT...
LOOKING AT 00Z SOUNDINGS FROM BOTH TUCSON AND PHOENIX...SOMEWHAT
DRIER COMPARED TO 12Z ON THURSDAY...HOWEVER STILL FAIRLY AVERAGE FOR
THIS TIME OF YEAR FOR PWAT VALUES. AFTER AN ACTIVE EVENING ACROSS
SOUTHEAST ARIZONA AND SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA...PER LATEST IR SATELLITE
IMAGERY A NICE MCS HAS MADE AN APPEARANCE OVER SONORA AND IS TRACKING
WESTWARD BUT STILL DELIVERING A VAST AMOUNT OF CLOUD COVER AND
ISOLATED LIGHTNING THIS SIDE OF THE BORDER. THE STRUGGLE TODAY WILL
BE CLOUD COVER AND IF IT WILL HINDER CONVECTION OPPORTUNITIES INTO
THE CENTRAL DESERTS.

STILL UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF SOUTH-SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW ON THE BACKSIDE
OF THE HIGH...THE SHORTWAVE FEATURE THAT IS PROVIDING THE LIFT AND
DYNAMICS CONTINUES TO MOVE NORTHWARD INTO THE FOUR CORNERS REGION.
PRECIPITABLE WATER READINGS ARE FORECAST TO REACH 1.65-1.7 INCH
THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING...WHICH AGAIN IS ABOUT PAR FOR THE COURSE
THIS TIME OF YEAR. TWO OUT OF THREE KEY INGREDIENTS FOR STORM
INITIATION ARE PRESENT AND THE THIRD REALLY HINGES ON DAYTIME
HEATING. AS WE SAW A FEW DAYS AGO THE CLOUDS PLAY A LARGE PART IN
WHETHER STORMS WILL INITIATE OR NOT. BOUNDARY LAYER AND OUTFLOW
INTERACTION ALWAYS AIDE WITH DEVELOPMENT. LOCAL MESOSCALE CONVECTIVE
MODELS ALLUDE TO CLOUDS CLEARING BY MID MORNING FOR CENTRAL ARIZONA
AS WELL AS ELEVATED INSTABILITY BY MID-DAY /CLOSE TO 800 J/KG OF
CAPE/ WHICH WOULD LATER BE REALIZED WITH DAYTIME HEATING. ALL THIS
SAID...TODAY COULD PLAY OUT EITHER WITH STABLE CONDITIONS PERSISTING
DUE TO NO CLEARING OR MID TO LATE AFTERNOON CONVECTION WILL INITIATE
SOUTHEAST OF PHOENIX AND PROPAGATE NORTHWARD. I AM TENDING TO LEAN ON
THE CLEARING OUT OPTION.

FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE A DRY BOUNDARY LAYER /7-8 G/KG MIXING
RATIO/ WITH SUFFICIENT HEATING CREATING AN INVERTED-V TYPE SOUNDING
WITH WARMER MAX TEMPS THIS AFTERNOON. INSTABILITY IN PLACE AND
CONVECTION DEVELOPING SOUTHEAST OF PHOENIX WITH A SOUTHEASTERLY
FLOW...SIGNS POINT TO BLOWING DUST. ALL HIGH-RES MODELS TEND TO AGREE
ON A RATHER ACTIVE EVENING ACROSS THE LOWER DESERTS. WHILE NOT A
SLAM-DUNK FLOOD SCENARIO...CAN`T RULE OUT LOCALIZED FLOODING...AS
WELL AS GUSTY WINDS WITH THE STRONGER STORMS.

AFTER TODAY DRIER AIR BEGINS TO FILTER IN WITH A SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW
STARTING TO TAKE SHAPE. SATURDAY HAS LESS THAN IDEAL CONDITIONS FOR
MONSOONAL ACTIVITY ACROSS THE LOWER AND CENTRAL DESERTS WITH MORE OF
A CONFLUENT FLOW. MOUNTAIN LOCATIONS OF EASTERN ARIZONA WILL STILL
SEE A SLIGHT OR BETTER CHANCE FOR AFTERNOON AND EVENING CONVECTION
FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS...GRADUALLY TRENDING DOWNWARD. SLIGHT
WARMING WILL ALSO TAKE PLACE WITH TEMPERATURES RANGING 102 TO 108
EACH DAY.

&&

.AVIATION...
SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA INCLUDING KPHX...KIWA...AND KSDL...

AN ACTIVE START TO THE AFTERNOON WITH QUITE A BIT OF STORM ACTIVITY
ALREADY FIRING OVER THE MOUNTAINS TO THE NORTH AND EAST OF PHOENIX.
EVENTUALLY EXPECTING SOME STORM OUTFLOWS TO ALLOW FOR MORE STORM
DEVELOPMENT OVER THE LOWER DESERTS BY LATE AFTERNOON. CONFIDENCE IN
TIMING FOR STORMS IN THE LOWER DESERTS IS STILL SOMEWHAT LOW...BUT
WE MAY SEE SOME OUTFLOWS INTO THE PHOENIX TERMINALS AS SOON AS 22-
00Z AND THEN A SHOT AT SOME THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE EVENING HOURS.
WIND FORECASTS THROUGH MIDNIGHT ARE RATHER TRICKY DUE TO THE STRONG
LIKELIHOOD OF STORM OUTFLOWS AFFECTING THE AREA. THERE IS POTENTIAL
FOR SOME STRONG WIND GUSTS WITH THESE OUTFLOWS AND VISIBILITY
RESTRICTIONS IN DUST OR RAIN.

SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA AND SOUTHWEST ARIZONA INCLUDING KIPL AND
KBLH...

WEST WINDS TO HOLD MOSTLY FOR KIPL THROUGHOUT THE DAY WHILE
SOUTHERLY HEADINGS ARE IN STORE FOR KBLH. SLIGHT CHANCE FOR ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT INTO THE AFTN ALONG THE CO RIVER
VALLEY...SO AT LEAST VCSH MENTION IS BACK IN THE KBLH TAF FOR THE
AFTN/EVENING HOURS.

AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDED TAFS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...
MONSOONAL MOISTURE WILL SLOWLY BEGIN TO THIN ACROSS THE AREA...FIRST
ACROSS THE WESTERN FIRE DISTRICTS AND EVENTUALLY INTO THE ENTIRE
LOWER DESERT ELEVATIONS AND REGION BY EARLY NEXT WEEK. THIS WILL
RELEGATE STORM CHANCES BACK TOWARDS THE HIGHER TERRAIN AND FURTHER
TO THE EAST ACROSS AZ. MINIMUM RH VALUES WILL BEGIN TO SETTLE INTO
THE TEENS WHILE MAKING MOSTLY MODEST TO FAIR OVERNIGHT RECOVERIES.
THE SLIGHTLY DRIER AIRMASS AND BUILDING UPPER RIDGE HEIGHTS WILL
LEND THEMSELVES TOWARD WARMER SFC CONDITIONS...AT OR ABOVE SEASONAL
NORMALS. WINDS WILL FOLLOW FAMILIAR WARM SEASON PATTERNS. BY MIDWEEK
A SUBTLE RETURN OF GULF MOISTURE MAY BOOST AREA HUMIDITIES...BUT NOT
LINGER MUCH THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT CONDITIONS ACCORDING TO STANDARD
OPERATING PROCEDURES.

&&

.PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AZ...NONE.
CA...NONE.
&&

$$

VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/PHOENIX

DISCUSSION...AJ
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...DEWEY
AVIATION...KUHLMAN
FIRE WEATHER...NOLTE




000
FXUS65 KPSR 311934
AFDPSR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PHOENIX AZ
1234 PM MST FRI JUL 31 2015

.UPDATE...UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION...

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED STORM ACTIVITY IS ANTICIPATED OVER ARIZONA AND
SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA AGAIN TODAY. A NOTABLE DOWNTREND IN MOISTURE
FROM WEST TO EAST IS EXPECTED OVER THE WEEKEND. THIS WILL KEEP STORM
CHANCES LIMITED TO SOUTH- CENTRAL ARIZONA WELL INTO NEXT WEEK.
TEMPERATURES WILL NOT CHANGE MUCH DAY TO DAY REMAINING AT OR ABOVE
SEASONABLE AVERAGE.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
ISOLATED STORM ACTIVITY ALREADY GOING THIS MORNING ALONG OUR
BOUNDARY WITH TWC CWA AND ADDITIONAL SHOWERS FURTHER SOUTH. THESE
APPEAR TO BE INFLUENCED BY REMNANTS OF A COUPLE OF OVERNIGHT MCS/S.
THERE ALSO LOOKS TO BE A BACKDOOR FRONT THAT HAS PUSHED THROUGH MUCH
OF NEW MEXICO. SO THERE COULD BE A COUPLE OF MCV/S AFFECTING THE AREA
TODAY...AND SOME OF THE HIGH RES MODELS DEPICT THAT. UNFORTUNATELY
NONE OF THE HIGH RES MODELS HAVE CAPTURED THIS MORNING/S ACTIVITY
VERY WELL...EVEN THE ONES THAT DID HANDLE THE EARLIER MCS/S FAIRLY
WELL. THE HRRR RUNS THIS MORNING HAVE BEEN INDICATING DEVELOPMENT
OVER SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA...INCLUDING THE LOWER DESERTS...EARLIER
IN THE DAY THAN IS TYPICAL. OVERALL...NOT A LOT OF GOOD AGREEMENT
AMONGST THE MODELS ON THE SPATIAL COVERAGE OF STORMS. ONE SIMILARITY
IS THAT THERE SHOULD BE MORE STORMS OVER SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA TODAY
THAN YESTERDAY. WILL MAKE SOME ADDITIONAL UPWARD ADJUSTMENTS TO POPS.
MORE LATER.

&&

.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION 334 AM MST/PDT...
LOOKING AT 00Z SOUNDINGS FROM BOTH TUCSON AND PHOENIX...SOMEWHAT
DRIER COMPARED TO 12Z ON THURSDAY...HOWEVER STILL FAIRLY AVERAGE FOR
THIS TIME OF YEAR FOR PWAT VALUES. AFTER AN ACTIVE EVENING ACROSS
SOUTHEAST ARIZONA AND SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA...PER LATEST IR SATELLITE
IMAGERY A NICE MCS HAS MADE AN APPEARANCE OVER SONORA AND IS TRACKING
WESTWARD BUT STILL DELIVERING A VAST AMOUNT OF CLOUD COVER AND
ISOLATED LIGHTNING THIS SIDE OF THE BORDER. THE STRUGGLE TODAY WILL
BE CLOUD COVER AND IF IT WILL HINDER CONVECTION OPPORTUNITIES INTO
THE CENTRAL DESERTS.

STILL UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF SOUTH-SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW ON THE BACKSIDE
OF THE HIGH...THE SHORTWAVE FEATURE THAT IS PROVIDING THE LIFT AND
DYNAMICS CONTINUES TO MOVE NORTHWARD INTO THE FOUR CORNERS REGION.
PRECIPITABLE WATER READINGS ARE FORECAST TO REACH 1.65-1.7 INCH
THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING...WHICH AGAIN IS ABOUT PAR FOR THE COURSE
THIS TIME OF YEAR. TWO OUT OF THREE KEY INGREDIENTS FOR STORM
INITIATION ARE PRESENT AND THE THIRD REALLY HINGES ON DAYTIME
HEATING. AS WE SAW A FEW DAYS AGO THE CLOUDS PLAY A LARGE PART IN
WHETHER STORMS WILL INITIATE OR NOT. BOUNDARY LAYER AND OUTFLOW
INTERACTION ALWAYS AIDE WITH DEVELOPMENT. LOCAL MESOSCALE CONVECTIVE
MODELS ALLUDE TO CLOUDS CLEARING BY MID MORNING FOR CENTRAL ARIZONA
AS WELL AS ELEVATED INSTABILITY BY MID-DAY /CLOSE TO 800 J/KG OF
CAPE/ WHICH WOULD LATER BE REALIZED WITH DAYTIME HEATING. ALL THIS
SAID...TODAY COULD PLAY OUT EITHER WITH STABLE CONDITIONS PERSISTING
DUE TO NO CLEARING OR MID TO LATE AFTERNOON CONVECTION WILL INITIATE
SOUTHEAST OF PHOENIX AND PROPAGATE NORTHWARD. I AM TENDING TO LEAN ON
THE CLEARING OUT OPTION.

FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE A DRY BOUNDARY LAYER /7-8 G/KG MIXING
RATIO/ WITH SUFFICIENT HEATING CREATING AN INVERTED-V TYPE SOUNDING
WITH WARMER MAX TEMPS THIS AFTERNOON. INSTABILITY IN PLACE AND
CONVECTION DEVELOPING SOUTHEAST OF PHOENIX WITH A SOUTHEASTERLY
FLOW...SIGNS POINT TO BLOWING DUST. ALL HIGH-RES MODELS TEND TO AGREE
ON A RATHER ACTIVE EVENING ACROSS THE LOWER DESERTS. WHILE NOT A
SLAM-DUNK FLOOD SCENARIO...CAN`T RULE OUT LOCALIZED FLOODING...AS
WELL AS GUSTY WINDS WITH THE STRONGER STORMS.

AFTER TODAY DRIER AIR BEGINS TO FILTER IN WITH A SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW
STARTING TO TAKE SHAPE. SATURDAY HAS LESS THAN IDEAL CONDITIONS FOR
MONSOONAL ACTIVITY ACROSS THE LOWER AND CENTRAL DESERTS WITH MORE OF
A CONFLUENT FLOW. MOUNTAIN LOCATIONS OF EASTERN ARIZONA WILL STILL
SEE A SLIGHT OR BETTER CHANCE FOR AFTERNOON AND EVENING CONVECTION
FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS...GRADUALLY TRENDING DOWNWARD. SLIGHT
WARMING WILL ALSO TAKE PLACE WITH TEMPERATURES RANGING 102 TO 108
EACH DAY.

&&

.AVIATION...
SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA INCLUDING KPHX...KIWA...AND KSDL...

AN ACTIVE START TO THE AFTERNOON WITH QUITE A BIT OF STORM ACTIVITY
ALREADY FIRING OVER THE MOUNTAINS TO THE NORTH AND EAST OF PHOENIX.
EVENTUALLY EXPECTING SOME STORM OUTFLOWS TO ALLOW FOR MORE STORM
DEVELOPMENT OVER THE LOWER DESERTS BY LATE AFTERNOON. CONFIDENCE IN
TIMING FOR STORMS IN THE LOWER DESERTS IS STILL SOMEWHAT LOW...BUT
WE MAY SEE SOME OUTFLOWS INTO THE PHOENIX TERMINALS AS SOON AS 22-
00Z AND THEN A SHOT AT SOME THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE EVENING HOURS.
WIND FORECASTS THROUGH MIDNIGHT ARE RATHER TRICKY DUE TO THE STRONG
LIKELIHOOD OF STORM OUTFLOWS AFFECTING THE AREA. THERE IS POTENTIAL
FOR SOME STRONG WIND GUSTS WITH THESE OUTFLOWS AND VISIBILITY
RESTRICTIONS IN DUST OR RAIN.

SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA AND SOUTHWEST ARIZONA INCLUDING KIPL AND
KBLH...

WEST WINDS TO HOLD MOSTLY FOR KIPL THROUGHOUT THE DAY WHILE
SOUTHERLY HEADINGS ARE IN STORE FOR KBLH. SLIGHT CHANCE FOR ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT INTO THE AFTN ALONG THE CO RIVER
VALLEY...SO AT LEAST VCSH MENTION IS BACK IN THE KBLH TAF FOR THE
AFTN/EVENING HOURS.

AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDED TAFS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...
MONSOONAL MOISTURE WILL SLOWLY BEGIN TO THIN ACROSS THE AREA...FIRST
ACROSS THE WESTERN FIRE DISTRICTS AND EVENTUALLY INTO THE ENTIRE
LOWER DESERT ELEVATIONS AND REGION BY EARLY NEXT WEEK. THIS WILL
RELEGATE STORM CHANCES BACK TOWARDS THE HIGHER TERRAIN AND FURTHER
TO THE EAST ACROSS AZ. MINIMUM RH VALUES WILL BEGIN TO SETTLE INTO
THE TEENS WHILE MAKING MOSTLY MODEST TO FAIR OVERNIGHT RECOVERIES.
THE SLIGHTLY DRIER AIRMASS AND BUILDING UPPER RIDGE HEIGHTS WILL
LEND THEMSELVES TOWARD WARMER SFC CONDITIONS...AT OR ABOVE SEASONAL
NORMALS. WINDS WILL FOLLOW FAMILIAR WARM SEASON PATTERNS. BY MIDWEEK
A SUBTLE RETURN OF GULF MOISTURE MAY BOOST AREA HUMIDITIES...BUT NOT
LINGER MUCH THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT CONDITIONS ACCORDING TO STANDARD
OPERATING PROCEDURES.

&&

.PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AZ...NONE.
CA...NONE.
&&

$$

VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/PHOENIX

DISCUSSION...AJ
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...DEWEY
AVIATION...KUHLMAN
FIRE WEATHER...NOLTE



000
FXUS65 KPSR 311641
AFDPSR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PHOENIX AZ
941 AM MST FRI JUL 31 2015


.SYNOPSIS...
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED STORM ACTIVITY IS ANTICIPATED OVER ARIZONA AND
SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA AGAIN TODAY. A NOTABLE DOWNTREND IN MOISTURE
FROM WEST TO EAST IS EXPECTED OVER THE WEEKEND. THIS WILL KEEP STORM
CHANCES LIMITED TO SOUTH- CENTRAL ARIZONA WELL INTO NEXT WEEK.
TEMPERATURES WILL NOT CHANGE MUCH DAY TO DAY REMAINING AT OR ABOVE
SEASONABLE AVERAGE.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
ISOLATED STORM ACTIVITY ALREADY GOING THIS MORNING ALONG OUR
BOUNDARY WITH TWC CWA AND ADDITIONAL SHOWERS FURTHER SOUTH. THESE
APPEAR TO BE INFLUENCED BY REMNANTS OF A COUPLE OF OVERNIGHT MCS/S.
THERE ALSO LOOKS TO BE A BACKDOOR FRONT THAT HAS PUSHED THROUGH MUCH
OF NEW MEXICO. SO THERE COULD BE A COUPLE OF MCV/S AFFECTING THE AREA
TODAY...AND SOME OF THE HIGH RES MODELS DEPICT THAT. UNFORTUNATELY
NONE OF THE HIGH RES MODELS HAVE CAPTURED THIS MORNING/S ACTIVITY
VERY WELL...EVEN THE ONES THAT DID HANDLE THE EARLIER MCS/S FAIRLY
WELL. THE HRRR RUNS THIS MORNING HAVE BEEN INDICATING DEVELOPMENT
OVER SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA...INCLUDING THE LOWER DESERTS...EARLIER
IN THE DAY THAN IS TYPICAL. OVERALL...NOT A LOT OF GOOD AGREEMENT
AMONGST THE MODELS ON THE SPATIAL COVERAGE OF STORMS. ONE SIMILARITY
IS THAT THERE SHOULD BE MORE STORMS OVER SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA TODAY
THAN YESTERDAY. WILL MAKE SOME ADDITIONAL UPWARD ADJUSTMENTS TO POPS.
MORE LATER.

&&

.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION 334 AM MST/PDT...
LOOKING AT 00Z SOUNDINGS FROM BOTH TUCSON AND PHOENIX...SOMEWHAT
DRIER COMPARED TO 12Z ON THURSDAY...HOWEVER STILL FAIRLY AVERAGE FOR
THIS TIME OF YEAR FOR PWAT VALUES. AFTER AN ACTIVE EVENING ACROSS
SOUTHEAST ARIZONA AND SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA...PER LATEST IR SATELLITE
IMAGERY A NICE MCS HAS MADE AN APPEARANCE OVER SONORA AND IS TRACKING
WESTWARD BUT STILL DELIVERING A VAST AMOUNT OF CLOUD COVER AND
ISOLATED LIGHTNING THIS SIDE OF THE BORDER. THE STRUGGLE TODAY WILL
BE CLOUD COVER AND IF IT WILL HINDER CONVECTION OPPORTUNITIES INTO
THE CENTRAL DESERTS.

STILL UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF SOUTH-SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW ON THE BACKSIDE
OF THE HIGH...THE SHORTWAVE FEATURE THAT IS PROVIDING THE LIFT AND
DYNAMICS CONTINUES TO MOVE NORTHWARD INTO THE FOUR CORNERS REGION.
PRECIPITABLE WATER READINGS ARE FORECAST TO REACH 1.65-1.7 INCH
THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING...WHICH AGAIN IS ABOUT PAR FOR THE COURSE
THIS TIME OF YEAR. TWO OUT OF THREE KEY INGREDIENTS FOR STORM
INITIATION ARE PRESENT AND THE THIRD REALLY HINGES ON DAYTIME
HEATING. AS WE SAW A FEW DAYS AGO THE CLOUDS PLAY A LARGE PART IN
WHETHER STORMS WILL INITIATE OR NOT. BOUNDARY LAYER AND OUTFLOW
INTERACTION ALWAYS AIDE WITH DEVELOPMENT. LOCAL MESOSCALE CONVECTIVE
MODELS ALLUDE TO CLOUDS CLEARING BY MID MORNING FOR CENTRAL ARIZONA
AS WELL AS ELEVATED INSTABILITY BY MID-DAY /CLOSE TO 800 J/KG OF
CAPE/ WHICH WOULD LATER BE REALIZED WITH DAYTIME HEATING. ALL THIS
SAID...TODAY COULD PLAY OUT EITHER WITH STABLE CONDITIONS PERSISTING
DUE TO NO CLEARING OR MID TO LATE AFTERNOON CONVECTION WILL INITIATE
SOUTHEAST OF PHOENIX AND PROPAGATE NORTHWARD. I AM TENDING TO LEAN ON
THE CLEARING OUT OPTION.

FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE A DRY BOUNDARY LAYER /7-8 G/KG MIXING
RATIO/ WITH SUFFICIENT HEATING CREATING AN INVERTED-V TYPE SOUNDING
WITH WARMER MAX TEMPS THIS AFTERNOON. INSTABILITY IN PLACE AND
CONVECTION DEVELOPING SOUTHEAST OF PHOENIX WITH A SOUTHEASTERLY
FLOW...SIGNS POINT TO BLOWING DUST. ALL HIGH-RES MODELS TEND TO AGREE
ON A RATHER ACTIVE EVENING ACROSS THE LOWER DESERTS. WHILE NOT A
SLAM-DUNK FLOOD SCENARIO...CAN`T RULE OUT LOCALIZED FLOODING...AS
WELL AS GUSTY WINDS WITH THE STRONGER STORMS.

AFTER TODAY DRIER AIR BEGINS TO FILTER IN WITH A SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW
STARTING TO TAKE SHAPE. SATURDAY HAS LESS THAN IDEAL CONDITIONS FOR
MONSOONAL ACTIVITY ACROSS THE LOWER AND CENTRAL DESERTS WITH MORE OF
A CONFLUENT FLOW. MOUNTAIN LOCATIONS OF EASTERN ARIZONA WILL STILL
SEE A SLIGHT OR BETTER CHANCE FOR AFTERNOON AND EVENING CONVECTION
FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS...GRADUALLY TRENDING DOWNWARD. SLIGHT
WARMING WILL ALSO TAKE PLACE WITH TEMPERATURES RANGING 102 TO 108
EACH DAY.

&&

.AVIATION...
SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA INCLUDING KPHX...KIWA...AND KSDL...
BKN-OVC MID AND HIGH LEVEL CIGS WILL CONTINUE TO DRIFT ACROSS THE
AREA THIS AM FROM DECAYING STORM COMPLEXES SOUTH OF THE BORDER AND
ACROSS SE AZ. HOW FAST AND TO WHAT EXTENT THESE CLEAR TODAY WILL
EITHER HELP OR HURT THE PHX METRO IN TERMS OF STORM CHANCES
IMPACTING THE TERMINALS LATER INTO THE EVENING. GNLY LIGHT AM SFC
WINDS NOTED AT SITES AROUND THE METRO WITH SUBTLE WEST FLOW VIA TPHX
AND KIWA VELOCITIES...SO ELECTED TO GO WITH VRB IN FOR PHX. SPEEDS
SHOULD BE LIGHT AND MANAGEABLE UNTIL MORE PROMINENT WESTERLY FLOW
SETTLES INTO THE AREA AFTER MIDDAY.

IF SKIES CLEAR AND WE ARE ABLE TO DECENTLY WARM THE DESERTS...STORMS
ARE FCST TO BEGIN FIRING OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN AND FOOTHILLS EAST
AND SOUTH OF PHOENIX. STORM INITIATION AND/OR SURVIVAL INTO THE PHX
METRO WILL LIKELY DEPEND ON STORM OUTFLOWS AND THEIR INTERACTION.
FOLLOWING HOW CONDITIONS HAVE MATERIALIZED SO FAR THIS
SUMMER...THESE OUTFLOW PASSAGES TEND BE POST 00Z...SO DID INCLUDE
VCTS MENTION 01/02Z FOR KSDL AND KIWA AND 01/04Z FOR KPHX.
CONFIDENCE IS MODERATE ON STORM DEVELOPMENT THIS EVENING...HOPING
THAT DAYTIME CLOUD COVER CLEARS ENOUGH TO NOT DAMPEN/SHUT DOWN STORM
CHANCES LATER INTO THE EVENING.

SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA AND SOUTHWEST ARIZONA INCLUDING KIPL AND
KBLH...
SCT-BKN MID LEVEL CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO STREAM OVER THE TERMINALS
FROM THE SOUTH THROUGH THE AM...OTHERWISE SKIES WILL MAINTAIN FEW-
SCT CLOUD COVERAGE. WEST WINDS TO HOLD MOSTLY FOR KIPL THROUGHOUT
THE DAY WHILE SOUTHERLY HEADINGS ARE IN STORE FOR KBLH. SLIGHT
CHANCE FOR ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT INTO THE AFTN ALONG THE
CO RIVER VALLEY...SO AT LEAST VCSH MENTION IS BACK IN THE KBLH TAF
FOR THE AFTN/EVENING HOURS.

AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDED TAFS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...
MONSOONAL MOISTURE WILL SLOWLY BEGIN TO THIN ACROSS THE AREA...FIRST
ACROSS THE WESTERN FIRE DISTRICTS AND EVENTUALLY INTO THE ENTIRE
LOWER DESERT ELEVATIONS AND REGION BY EARLY NEXT WEEK. THIS WILL
RELEGATE STORM CHANCES BACK TOWARDS THE HIGHER TERRAIN AND FURTHER
TO THE EAST ACROSS AZ. MINIMUM RH VALUES WILL BEGIN TO SETTLE INTO
THE TEENS WHILE MAKING MOSTLY MODEST TO FAIR OVERNIGHT RECOVERIES.
THE SLIGHTLY DRIER AIRMASS AND BUILDING UPPER RIDGE HEIGHTS WILL
LEND THEMSELVES TOWARD WARMER SFC CONDITIONS...AT OR ABOVE SEASONAL
NORMALS. WINDS WILL FOLLOW FAMILIAR WARM SEASON PATTERNS. BY MIDWEEK
A SUBTLE RETURN OF GULF MOISTURE MAY BOOST AREA HUMIDITIES...BUT NOT
LINGER MUCH THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT CONDITIONS ACCORDING TO STANDARD
OPERATING PROCEDURES.

&&

.PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AZ...NONE.
CA...NONE.
&&

$$

VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/PHOENIX

DISCUSSION...AJ
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...DEWEY
AVIATION...NOLTE
FIRE WEATHER...NOLTE



000
FXUS65 KPSR 311641
AFDPSR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PHOENIX AZ
941 AM MST FRI JUL 31 2015


.SYNOPSIS...
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED STORM ACTIVITY IS ANTICIPATED OVER ARIZONA AND
SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA AGAIN TODAY. A NOTABLE DOWNTREND IN MOISTURE
FROM WEST TO EAST IS EXPECTED OVER THE WEEKEND. THIS WILL KEEP STORM
CHANCES LIMITED TO SOUTH- CENTRAL ARIZONA WELL INTO NEXT WEEK.
TEMPERATURES WILL NOT CHANGE MUCH DAY TO DAY REMAINING AT OR ABOVE
SEASONABLE AVERAGE.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
ISOLATED STORM ACTIVITY ALREADY GOING THIS MORNING ALONG OUR
BOUNDARY WITH TWC CWA AND ADDITIONAL SHOWERS FURTHER SOUTH. THESE
APPEAR TO BE INFLUENCED BY REMNANTS OF A COUPLE OF OVERNIGHT MCS/S.
THERE ALSO LOOKS TO BE A BACKDOOR FRONT THAT HAS PUSHED THROUGH MUCH
OF NEW MEXICO. SO THERE COULD BE A COUPLE OF MCV/S AFFECTING THE AREA
TODAY...AND SOME OF THE HIGH RES MODELS DEPICT THAT. UNFORTUNATELY
NONE OF THE HIGH RES MODELS HAVE CAPTURED THIS MORNING/S ACTIVITY
VERY WELL...EVEN THE ONES THAT DID HANDLE THE EARLIER MCS/S FAIRLY
WELL. THE HRRR RUNS THIS MORNING HAVE BEEN INDICATING DEVELOPMENT
OVER SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA...INCLUDING THE LOWER DESERTS...EARLIER
IN THE DAY THAN IS TYPICAL. OVERALL...NOT A LOT OF GOOD AGREEMENT
AMONGST THE MODELS ON THE SPATIAL COVERAGE OF STORMS. ONE SIMILARITY
IS THAT THERE SHOULD BE MORE STORMS OVER SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA TODAY
THAN YESTERDAY. WILL MAKE SOME ADDITIONAL UPWARD ADJUSTMENTS TO POPS.
MORE LATER.

&&

.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION 334 AM MST/PDT...
LOOKING AT 00Z SOUNDINGS FROM BOTH TUCSON AND PHOENIX...SOMEWHAT
DRIER COMPARED TO 12Z ON THURSDAY...HOWEVER STILL FAIRLY AVERAGE FOR
THIS TIME OF YEAR FOR PWAT VALUES. AFTER AN ACTIVE EVENING ACROSS
SOUTHEAST ARIZONA AND SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA...PER LATEST IR SATELLITE
IMAGERY A NICE MCS HAS MADE AN APPEARANCE OVER SONORA AND IS TRACKING
WESTWARD BUT STILL DELIVERING A VAST AMOUNT OF CLOUD COVER AND
ISOLATED LIGHTNING THIS SIDE OF THE BORDER. THE STRUGGLE TODAY WILL
BE CLOUD COVER AND IF IT WILL HINDER CONVECTION OPPORTUNITIES INTO
THE CENTRAL DESERTS.

STILL UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF SOUTH-SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW ON THE BACKSIDE
OF THE HIGH...THE SHORTWAVE FEATURE THAT IS PROVIDING THE LIFT AND
DYNAMICS CONTINUES TO MOVE NORTHWARD INTO THE FOUR CORNERS REGION.
PRECIPITABLE WATER READINGS ARE FORECAST TO REACH 1.65-1.7 INCH
THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING...WHICH AGAIN IS ABOUT PAR FOR THE COURSE
THIS TIME OF YEAR. TWO OUT OF THREE KEY INGREDIENTS FOR STORM
INITIATION ARE PRESENT AND THE THIRD REALLY HINGES ON DAYTIME
HEATING. AS WE SAW A FEW DAYS AGO THE CLOUDS PLAY A LARGE PART IN
WHETHER STORMS WILL INITIATE OR NOT. BOUNDARY LAYER AND OUTFLOW
INTERACTION ALWAYS AIDE WITH DEVELOPMENT. LOCAL MESOSCALE CONVECTIVE
MODELS ALLUDE TO CLOUDS CLEARING BY MID MORNING FOR CENTRAL ARIZONA
AS WELL AS ELEVATED INSTABILITY BY MID-DAY /CLOSE TO 800 J/KG OF
CAPE/ WHICH WOULD LATER BE REALIZED WITH DAYTIME HEATING. ALL THIS
SAID...TODAY COULD PLAY OUT EITHER WITH STABLE CONDITIONS PERSISTING
DUE TO NO CLEARING OR MID TO LATE AFTERNOON CONVECTION WILL INITIATE
SOUTHEAST OF PHOENIX AND PROPAGATE NORTHWARD. I AM TENDING TO LEAN ON
THE CLEARING OUT OPTION.

FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE A DRY BOUNDARY LAYER /7-8 G/KG MIXING
RATIO/ WITH SUFFICIENT HEATING CREATING AN INVERTED-V TYPE SOUNDING
WITH WARMER MAX TEMPS THIS AFTERNOON. INSTABILITY IN PLACE AND
CONVECTION DEVELOPING SOUTHEAST OF PHOENIX WITH A SOUTHEASTERLY
FLOW...SIGNS POINT TO BLOWING DUST. ALL HIGH-RES MODELS TEND TO AGREE
ON A RATHER ACTIVE EVENING ACROSS THE LOWER DESERTS. WHILE NOT A
SLAM-DUNK FLOOD SCENARIO...CAN`T RULE OUT LOCALIZED FLOODING...AS
WELL AS GUSTY WINDS WITH THE STRONGER STORMS.

AFTER TODAY DRIER AIR BEGINS TO FILTER IN WITH A SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW
STARTING TO TAKE SHAPE. SATURDAY HAS LESS THAN IDEAL CONDITIONS FOR
MONSOONAL ACTIVITY ACROSS THE LOWER AND CENTRAL DESERTS WITH MORE OF
A CONFLUENT FLOW. MOUNTAIN LOCATIONS OF EASTERN ARIZONA WILL STILL
SEE A SLIGHT OR BETTER CHANCE FOR AFTERNOON AND EVENING CONVECTION
FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS...GRADUALLY TRENDING DOWNWARD. SLIGHT
WARMING WILL ALSO TAKE PLACE WITH TEMPERATURES RANGING 102 TO 108
EACH DAY.

&&

.AVIATION...
SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA INCLUDING KPHX...KIWA...AND KSDL...
BKN-OVC MID AND HIGH LEVEL CIGS WILL CONTINUE TO DRIFT ACROSS THE
AREA THIS AM FROM DECAYING STORM COMPLEXES SOUTH OF THE BORDER AND
ACROSS SE AZ. HOW FAST AND TO WHAT EXTENT THESE CLEAR TODAY WILL
EITHER HELP OR HURT THE PHX METRO IN TERMS OF STORM CHANCES
IMPACTING THE TERMINALS LATER INTO THE EVENING. GNLY LIGHT AM SFC
WINDS NOTED AT SITES AROUND THE METRO WITH SUBTLE WEST FLOW VIA TPHX
AND KIWA VELOCITIES...SO ELECTED TO GO WITH VRB IN FOR PHX. SPEEDS
SHOULD BE LIGHT AND MANAGEABLE UNTIL MORE PROMINENT WESTERLY FLOW
SETTLES INTO THE AREA AFTER MIDDAY.

IF SKIES CLEAR AND WE ARE ABLE TO DECENTLY WARM THE DESERTS...STORMS
ARE FCST TO BEGIN FIRING OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN AND FOOTHILLS EAST
AND SOUTH OF PHOENIX. STORM INITIATION AND/OR SURVIVAL INTO THE PHX
METRO WILL LIKELY DEPEND ON STORM OUTFLOWS AND THEIR INTERACTION.
FOLLOWING HOW CONDITIONS HAVE MATERIALIZED SO FAR THIS
SUMMER...THESE OUTFLOW PASSAGES TEND BE POST 00Z...SO DID INCLUDE
VCTS MENTION 01/02Z FOR KSDL AND KIWA AND 01/04Z FOR KPHX.
CONFIDENCE IS MODERATE ON STORM DEVELOPMENT THIS EVENING...HOPING
THAT DAYTIME CLOUD COVER CLEARS ENOUGH TO NOT DAMPEN/SHUT DOWN STORM
CHANCES LATER INTO THE EVENING.

SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA AND SOUTHWEST ARIZONA INCLUDING KIPL AND
KBLH...
SCT-BKN MID LEVEL CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO STREAM OVER THE TERMINALS
FROM THE SOUTH THROUGH THE AM...OTHERWISE SKIES WILL MAINTAIN FEW-
SCT CLOUD COVERAGE. WEST WINDS TO HOLD MOSTLY FOR KIPL THROUGHOUT
THE DAY WHILE SOUTHERLY HEADINGS ARE IN STORE FOR KBLH. SLIGHT
CHANCE FOR ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT INTO THE AFTN ALONG THE
CO RIVER VALLEY...SO AT LEAST VCSH MENTION IS BACK IN THE KBLH TAF
FOR THE AFTN/EVENING HOURS.

AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDED TAFS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...
MONSOONAL MOISTURE WILL SLOWLY BEGIN TO THIN ACROSS THE AREA...FIRST
ACROSS THE WESTERN FIRE DISTRICTS AND EVENTUALLY INTO THE ENTIRE
LOWER DESERT ELEVATIONS AND REGION BY EARLY NEXT WEEK. THIS WILL
RELEGATE STORM CHANCES BACK TOWARDS THE HIGHER TERRAIN AND FURTHER
TO THE EAST ACROSS AZ. MINIMUM RH VALUES WILL BEGIN TO SETTLE INTO
THE TEENS WHILE MAKING MOSTLY MODEST TO FAIR OVERNIGHT RECOVERIES.
THE SLIGHTLY DRIER AIRMASS AND BUILDING UPPER RIDGE HEIGHTS WILL
LEND THEMSELVES TOWARD WARMER SFC CONDITIONS...AT OR ABOVE SEASONAL
NORMALS. WINDS WILL FOLLOW FAMILIAR WARM SEASON PATTERNS. BY MIDWEEK
A SUBTLE RETURN OF GULF MOISTURE MAY BOOST AREA HUMIDITIES...BUT NOT
LINGER MUCH THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT CONDITIONS ACCORDING TO STANDARD
OPERATING PROCEDURES.

&&

.PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AZ...NONE.
CA...NONE.
&&

$$

VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/PHOENIX

DISCUSSION...AJ
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...DEWEY
AVIATION...NOLTE
FIRE WEATHER...NOLTE




000
FXUS65 KPSR 311641
AFDPSR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PHOENIX AZ
941 AM MST FRI JUL 31 2015


.SYNOPSIS...
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED STORM ACTIVITY IS ANTICIPATED OVER ARIZONA AND
SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA AGAIN TODAY. A NOTABLE DOWNTREND IN MOISTURE
FROM WEST TO EAST IS EXPECTED OVER THE WEEKEND. THIS WILL KEEP STORM
CHANCES LIMITED TO SOUTH- CENTRAL ARIZONA WELL INTO NEXT WEEK.
TEMPERATURES WILL NOT CHANGE MUCH DAY TO DAY REMAINING AT OR ABOVE
SEASONABLE AVERAGE.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
ISOLATED STORM ACTIVITY ALREADY GOING THIS MORNING ALONG OUR
BOUNDARY WITH TWC CWA AND ADDITIONAL SHOWERS FURTHER SOUTH. THESE
APPEAR TO BE INFLUENCED BY REMNANTS OF A COUPLE OF OVERNIGHT MCS/S.
THERE ALSO LOOKS TO BE A BACKDOOR FRONT THAT HAS PUSHED THROUGH MUCH
OF NEW MEXICO. SO THERE COULD BE A COUPLE OF MCV/S AFFECTING THE AREA
TODAY...AND SOME OF THE HIGH RES MODELS DEPICT THAT. UNFORTUNATELY
NONE OF THE HIGH RES MODELS HAVE CAPTURED THIS MORNING/S ACTIVITY
VERY WELL...EVEN THE ONES THAT DID HANDLE THE EARLIER MCS/S FAIRLY
WELL. THE HRRR RUNS THIS MORNING HAVE BEEN INDICATING DEVELOPMENT
OVER SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA...INCLUDING THE LOWER DESERTS...EARLIER
IN THE DAY THAN IS TYPICAL. OVERALL...NOT A LOT OF GOOD AGREEMENT
AMONGST THE MODELS ON THE SPATIAL COVERAGE OF STORMS. ONE SIMILARITY
IS THAT THERE SHOULD BE MORE STORMS OVER SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA TODAY
THAN YESTERDAY. WILL MAKE SOME ADDITIONAL UPWARD ADJUSTMENTS TO POPS.
MORE LATER.

&&

.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION 334 AM MST/PDT...
LOOKING AT 00Z SOUNDINGS FROM BOTH TUCSON AND PHOENIX...SOMEWHAT
DRIER COMPARED TO 12Z ON THURSDAY...HOWEVER STILL FAIRLY AVERAGE FOR
THIS TIME OF YEAR FOR PWAT VALUES. AFTER AN ACTIVE EVENING ACROSS
SOUTHEAST ARIZONA AND SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA...PER LATEST IR SATELLITE
IMAGERY A NICE MCS HAS MADE AN APPEARANCE OVER SONORA AND IS TRACKING
WESTWARD BUT STILL DELIVERING A VAST AMOUNT OF CLOUD COVER AND
ISOLATED LIGHTNING THIS SIDE OF THE BORDER. THE STRUGGLE TODAY WILL
BE CLOUD COVER AND IF IT WILL HINDER CONVECTION OPPORTUNITIES INTO
THE CENTRAL DESERTS.

STILL UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF SOUTH-SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW ON THE BACKSIDE
OF THE HIGH...THE SHORTWAVE FEATURE THAT IS PROVIDING THE LIFT AND
DYNAMICS CONTINUES TO MOVE NORTHWARD INTO THE FOUR CORNERS REGION.
PRECIPITABLE WATER READINGS ARE FORECAST TO REACH 1.65-1.7 INCH
THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING...WHICH AGAIN IS ABOUT PAR FOR THE COURSE
THIS TIME OF YEAR. TWO OUT OF THREE KEY INGREDIENTS FOR STORM
INITIATION ARE PRESENT AND THE THIRD REALLY HINGES ON DAYTIME
HEATING. AS WE SAW A FEW DAYS AGO THE CLOUDS PLAY A LARGE PART IN
WHETHER STORMS WILL INITIATE OR NOT. BOUNDARY LAYER AND OUTFLOW
INTERACTION ALWAYS AIDE WITH DEVELOPMENT. LOCAL MESOSCALE CONVECTIVE
MODELS ALLUDE TO CLOUDS CLEARING BY MID MORNING FOR CENTRAL ARIZONA
AS WELL AS ELEVATED INSTABILITY BY MID-DAY /CLOSE TO 800 J/KG OF
CAPE/ WHICH WOULD LATER BE REALIZED WITH DAYTIME HEATING. ALL THIS
SAID...TODAY COULD PLAY OUT EITHER WITH STABLE CONDITIONS PERSISTING
DUE TO NO CLEARING OR MID TO LATE AFTERNOON CONVECTION WILL INITIATE
SOUTHEAST OF PHOENIX AND PROPAGATE NORTHWARD. I AM TENDING TO LEAN ON
THE CLEARING OUT OPTION.

FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE A DRY BOUNDARY LAYER /7-8 G/KG MIXING
RATIO/ WITH SUFFICIENT HEATING CREATING AN INVERTED-V TYPE SOUNDING
WITH WARMER MAX TEMPS THIS AFTERNOON. INSTABILITY IN PLACE AND
CONVECTION DEVELOPING SOUTHEAST OF PHOENIX WITH A SOUTHEASTERLY
FLOW...SIGNS POINT TO BLOWING DUST. ALL HIGH-RES MODELS TEND TO AGREE
ON A RATHER ACTIVE EVENING ACROSS THE LOWER DESERTS. WHILE NOT A
SLAM-DUNK FLOOD SCENARIO...CAN`T RULE OUT LOCALIZED FLOODING...AS
WELL AS GUSTY WINDS WITH THE STRONGER STORMS.

AFTER TODAY DRIER AIR BEGINS TO FILTER IN WITH A SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW
STARTING TO TAKE SHAPE. SATURDAY HAS LESS THAN IDEAL CONDITIONS FOR
MONSOONAL ACTIVITY ACROSS THE LOWER AND CENTRAL DESERTS WITH MORE OF
A CONFLUENT FLOW. MOUNTAIN LOCATIONS OF EASTERN ARIZONA WILL STILL
SEE A SLIGHT OR BETTER CHANCE FOR AFTERNOON AND EVENING CONVECTION
FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS...GRADUALLY TRENDING DOWNWARD. SLIGHT
WARMING WILL ALSO TAKE PLACE WITH TEMPERATURES RANGING 102 TO 108
EACH DAY.

&&

.AVIATION...
SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA INCLUDING KPHX...KIWA...AND KSDL...
BKN-OVC MID AND HIGH LEVEL CIGS WILL CONTINUE TO DRIFT ACROSS THE
AREA THIS AM FROM DECAYING STORM COMPLEXES SOUTH OF THE BORDER AND
ACROSS SE AZ. HOW FAST AND TO WHAT EXTENT THESE CLEAR TODAY WILL
EITHER HELP OR HURT THE PHX METRO IN TERMS OF STORM CHANCES
IMPACTING THE TERMINALS LATER INTO THE EVENING. GNLY LIGHT AM SFC
WINDS NOTED AT SITES AROUND THE METRO WITH SUBTLE WEST FLOW VIA TPHX
AND KIWA VELOCITIES...SO ELECTED TO GO WITH VRB IN FOR PHX. SPEEDS
SHOULD BE LIGHT AND MANAGEABLE UNTIL MORE PROMINENT WESTERLY FLOW
SETTLES INTO THE AREA AFTER MIDDAY.

IF SKIES CLEAR AND WE ARE ABLE TO DECENTLY WARM THE DESERTS...STORMS
ARE FCST TO BEGIN FIRING OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN AND FOOTHILLS EAST
AND SOUTH OF PHOENIX. STORM INITIATION AND/OR SURVIVAL INTO THE PHX
METRO WILL LIKELY DEPEND ON STORM OUTFLOWS AND THEIR INTERACTION.
FOLLOWING HOW CONDITIONS HAVE MATERIALIZED SO FAR THIS
SUMMER...THESE OUTFLOW PASSAGES TEND BE POST 00Z...SO DID INCLUDE
VCTS MENTION 01/02Z FOR KSDL AND KIWA AND 01/04Z FOR KPHX.
CONFIDENCE IS MODERATE ON STORM DEVELOPMENT THIS EVENING...HOPING
THAT DAYTIME CLOUD COVER CLEARS ENOUGH TO NOT DAMPEN/SHUT DOWN STORM
CHANCES LATER INTO THE EVENING.

SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA AND SOUTHWEST ARIZONA INCLUDING KIPL AND
KBLH...
SCT-BKN MID LEVEL CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO STREAM OVER THE TERMINALS
FROM THE SOUTH THROUGH THE AM...OTHERWISE SKIES WILL MAINTAIN FEW-
SCT CLOUD COVERAGE. WEST WINDS TO HOLD MOSTLY FOR KIPL THROUGHOUT
THE DAY WHILE SOUTHERLY HEADINGS ARE IN STORE FOR KBLH. SLIGHT
CHANCE FOR ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT INTO THE AFTN ALONG THE
CO RIVER VALLEY...SO AT LEAST VCSH MENTION IS BACK IN THE KBLH TAF
FOR THE AFTN/EVENING HOURS.

AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDED TAFS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...
MONSOONAL MOISTURE WILL SLOWLY BEGIN TO THIN ACROSS THE AREA...FIRST
ACROSS THE WESTERN FIRE DISTRICTS AND EVENTUALLY INTO THE ENTIRE
LOWER DESERT ELEVATIONS AND REGION BY EARLY NEXT WEEK. THIS WILL
RELEGATE STORM CHANCES BACK TOWARDS THE HIGHER TERRAIN AND FURTHER
TO THE EAST ACROSS AZ. MINIMUM RH VALUES WILL BEGIN TO SETTLE INTO
THE TEENS WHILE MAKING MOSTLY MODEST TO FAIR OVERNIGHT RECOVERIES.
THE SLIGHTLY DRIER AIRMASS AND BUILDING UPPER RIDGE HEIGHTS WILL
LEND THEMSELVES TOWARD WARMER SFC CONDITIONS...AT OR ABOVE SEASONAL
NORMALS. WINDS WILL FOLLOW FAMILIAR WARM SEASON PATTERNS. BY MIDWEEK
A SUBTLE RETURN OF GULF MOISTURE MAY BOOST AREA HUMIDITIES...BUT NOT
LINGER MUCH THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT CONDITIONS ACCORDING TO STANDARD
OPERATING PROCEDURES.

&&

.PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AZ...NONE.
CA...NONE.
&&

$$

VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/PHOENIX

DISCUSSION...AJ
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...DEWEY
AVIATION...NOLTE
FIRE WEATHER...NOLTE



000
FXUS65 KPSR 311641
AFDPSR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PHOENIX AZ
941 AM MST FRI JUL 31 2015


.SYNOPSIS...
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED STORM ACTIVITY IS ANTICIPATED OVER ARIZONA AND
SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA AGAIN TODAY. A NOTABLE DOWNTREND IN MOISTURE
FROM WEST TO EAST IS EXPECTED OVER THE WEEKEND. THIS WILL KEEP STORM
CHANCES LIMITED TO SOUTH- CENTRAL ARIZONA WELL INTO NEXT WEEK.
TEMPERATURES WILL NOT CHANGE MUCH DAY TO DAY REMAINING AT OR ABOVE
SEASONABLE AVERAGE.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
ISOLATED STORM ACTIVITY ALREADY GOING THIS MORNING ALONG OUR
BOUNDARY WITH TWC CWA AND ADDITIONAL SHOWERS FURTHER SOUTH. THESE
APPEAR TO BE INFLUENCED BY REMNANTS OF A COUPLE OF OVERNIGHT MCS/S.
THERE ALSO LOOKS TO BE A BACKDOOR FRONT THAT HAS PUSHED THROUGH MUCH
OF NEW MEXICO. SO THERE COULD BE A COUPLE OF MCV/S AFFECTING THE AREA
TODAY...AND SOME OF THE HIGH RES MODELS DEPICT THAT. UNFORTUNATELY
NONE OF THE HIGH RES MODELS HAVE CAPTURED THIS MORNING/S ACTIVITY
VERY WELL...EVEN THE ONES THAT DID HANDLE THE EARLIER MCS/S FAIRLY
WELL. THE HRRR RUNS THIS MORNING HAVE BEEN INDICATING DEVELOPMENT
OVER SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA...INCLUDING THE LOWER DESERTS...EARLIER
IN THE DAY THAN IS TYPICAL. OVERALL...NOT A LOT OF GOOD AGREEMENT
AMONGST THE MODELS ON THE SPATIAL COVERAGE OF STORMS. ONE SIMILARITY
IS THAT THERE SHOULD BE MORE STORMS OVER SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA TODAY
THAN YESTERDAY. WILL MAKE SOME ADDITIONAL UPWARD ADJUSTMENTS TO POPS.
MORE LATER.

&&

.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION 334 AM MST/PDT...
LOOKING AT 00Z SOUNDINGS FROM BOTH TUCSON AND PHOENIX...SOMEWHAT
DRIER COMPARED TO 12Z ON THURSDAY...HOWEVER STILL FAIRLY AVERAGE FOR
THIS TIME OF YEAR FOR PWAT VALUES. AFTER AN ACTIVE EVENING ACROSS
SOUTHEAST ARIZONA AND SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA...PER LATEST IR SATELLITE
IMAGERY A NICE MCS HAS MADE AN APPEARANCE OVER SONORA AND IS TRACKING
WESTWARD BUT STILL DELIVERING A VAST AMOUNT OF CLOUD COVER AND
ISOLATED LIGHTNING THIS SIDE OF THE BORDER. THE STRUGGLE TODAY WILL
BE CLOUD COVER AND IF IT WILL HINDER CONVECTION OPPORTUNITIES INTO
THE CENTRAL DESERTS.

STILL UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF SOUTH-SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW ON THE BACKSIDE
OF THE HIGH...THE SHORTWAVE FEATURE THAT IS PROVIDING THE LIFT AND
DYNAMICS CONTINUES TO MOVE NORTHWARD INTO THE FOUR CORNERS REGION.
PRECIPITABLE WATER READINGS ARE FORECAST TO REACH 1.65-1.7 INCH
THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING...WHICH AGAIN IS ABOUT PAR FOR THE COURSE
THIS TIME OF YEAR. TWO OUT OF THREE KEY INGREDIENTS FOR STORM
INITIATION ARE PRESENT AND THE THIRD REALLY HINGES ON DAYTIME
HEATING. AS WE SAW A FEW DAYS AGO THE CLOUDS PLAY A LARGE PART IN
WHETHER STORMS WILL INITIATE OR NOT. BOUNDARY LAYER AND OUTFLOW
INTERACTION ALWAYS AIDE WITH DEVELOPMENT. LOCAL MESOSCALE CONVECTIVE
MODELS ALLUDE TO CLOUDS CLEARING BY MID MORNING FOR CENTRAL ARIZONA
AS WELL AS ELEVATED INSTABILITY BY MID-DAY /CLOSE TO 800 J/KG OF
CAPE/ WHICH WOULD LATER BE REALIZED WITH DAYTIME HEATING. ALL THIS
SAID...TODAY COULD PLAY OUT EITHER WITH STABLE CONDITIONS PERSISTING
DUE TO NO CLEARING OR MID TO LATE AFTERNOON CONVECTION WILL INITIATE
SOUTHEAST OF PHOENIX AND PROPAGATE NORTHWARD. I AM TENDING TO LEAN ON
THE CLEARING OUT OPTION.

FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE A DRY BOUNDARY LAYER /7-8 G/KG MIXING
RATIO/ WITH SUFFICIENT HEATING CREATING AN INVERTED-V TYPE SOUNDING
WITH WARMER MAX TEMPS THIS AFTERNOON. INSTABILITY IN PLACE AND
CONVECTION DEVELOPING SOUTHEAST OF PHOENIX WITH A SOUTHEASTERLY
FLOW...SIGNS POINT TO BLOWING DUST. ALL HIGH-RES MODELS TEND TO AGREE
ON A RATHER ACTIVE EVENING ACROSS THE LOWER DESERTS. WHILE NOT A
SLAM-DUNK FLOOD SCENARIO...CAN`T RULE OUT LOCALIZED FLOODING...AS
WELL AS GUSTY WINDS WITH THE STRONGER STORMS.

AFTER TODAY DRIER AIR BEGINS TO FILTER IN WITH A SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW
STARTING TO TAKE SHAPE. SATURDAY HAS LESS THAN IDEAL CONDITIONS FOR
MONSOONAL ACTIVITY ACROSS THE LOWER AND CENTRAL DESERTS WITH MORE OF
A CONFLUENT FLOW. MOUNTAIN LOCATIONS OF EASTERN ARIZONA WILL STILL
SEE A SLIGHT OR BETTER CHANCE FOR AFTERNOON AND EVENING CONVECTION
FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS...GRADUALLY TRENDING DOWNWARD. SLIGHT
WARMING WILL ALSO TAKE PLACE WITH TEMPERATURES RANGING 102 TO 108
EACH DAY.

&&

.AVIATION...
SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA INCLUDING KPHX...KIWA...AND KSDL...
BKN-OVC MID AND HIGH LEVEL CIGS WILL CONTINUE TO DRIFT ACROSS THE
AREA THIS AM FROM DECAYING STORM COMPLEXES SOUTH OF THE BORDER AND
ACROSS SE AZ. HOW FAST AND TO WHAT EXTENT THESE CLEAR TODAY WILL
EITHER HELP OR HURT THE PHX METRO IN TERMS OF STORM CHANCES
IMPACTING THE TERMINALS LATER INTO THE EVENING. GNLY LIGHT AM SFC
WINDS NOTED AT SITES AROUND THE METRO WITH SUBTLE WEST FLOW VIA TPHX
AND KIWA VELOCITIES...SO ELECTED TO GO WITH VRB IN FOR PHX. SPEEDS
SHOULD BE LIGHT AND MANAGEABLE UNTIL MORE PROMINENT WESTERLY FLOW
SETTLES INTO THE AREA AFTER MIDDAY.

IF SKIES CLEAR AND WE ARE ABLE TO DECENTLY WARM THE DESERTS...STORMS
ARE FCST TO BEGIN FIRING OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN AND FOOTHILLS EAST
AND SOUTH OF PHOENIX. STORM INITIATION AND/OR SURVIVAL INTO THE PHX
METRO WILL LIKELY DEPEND ON STORM OUTFLOWS AND THEIR INTERACTION.
FOLLOWING HOW CONDITIONS HAVE MATERIALIZED SO FAR THIS
SUMMER...THESE OUTFLOW PASSAGES TEND BE POST 00Z...SO DID INCLUDE
VCTS MENTION 01/02Z FOR KSDL AND KIWA AND 01/04Z FOR KPHX.
CONFIDENCE IS MODERATE ON STORM DEVELOPMENT THIS EVENING...HOPING
THAT DAYTIME CLOUD COVER CLEARS ENOUGH TO NOT DAMPEN/SHUT DOWN STORM
CHANCES LATER INTO THE EVENING.

SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA AND SOUTHWEST ARIZONA INCLUDING KIPL AND
KBLH...
SCT-BKN MID LEVEL CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO STREAM OVER THE TERMINALS
FROM THE SOUTH THROUGH THE AM...OTHERWISE SKIES WILL MAINTAIN FEW-
SCT CLOUD COVERAGE. WEST WINDS TO HOLD MOSTLY FOR KIPL THROUGHOUT
THE DAY WHILE SOUTHERLY HEADINGS ARE IN STORE FOR KBLH. SLIGHT
CHANCE FOR ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT INTO THE AFTN ALONG THE
CO RIVER VALLEY...SO AT LEAST VCSH MENTION IS BACK IN THE KBLH TAF
FOR THE AFTN/EVENING HOURS.

AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDED TAFS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...
MONSOONAL MOISTURE WILL SLOWLY BEGIN TO THIN ACROSS THE AREA...FIRST
ACROSS THE WESTERN FIRE DISTRICTS AND EVENTUALLY INTO THE ENTIRE
LOWER DESERT ELEVATIONS AND REGION BY EARLY NEXT WEEK. THIS WILL
RELEGATE STORM CHANCES BACK TOWARDS THE HIGHER TERRAIN AND FURTHER
TO THE EAST ACROSS AZ. MINIMUM RH VALUES WILL BEGIN TO SETTLE INTO
THE TEENS WHILE MAKING MOSTLY MODEST TO FAIR OVERNIGHT RECOVERIES.
THE SLIGHTLY DRIER AIRMASS AND BUILDING UPPER RIDGE HEIGHTS WILL
LEND THEMSELVES TOWARD WARMER SFC CONDITIONS...AT OR ABOVE SEASONAL
NORMALS. WINDS WILL FOLLOW FAMILIAR WARM SEASON PATTERNS. BY MIDWEEK
A SUBTLE RETURN OF GULF MOISTURE MAY BOOST AREA HUMIDITIES...BUT NOT
LINGER MUCH THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT CONDITIONS ACCORDING TO STANDARD
OPERATING PROCEDURES.

&&

.PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AZ...NONE.
CA...NONE.
&&

$$

VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/PHOENIX

DISCUSSION...AJ
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...DEWEY
AVIATION...NOLTE
FIRE WEATHER...NOLTE




000
FXUS65 KFGZ 311638
AFDFGZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ
938 AM MST FRI JUL 31 2015

.SYNOPSIS...DEEP MOISTURE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE TODAY AND SATURDAY.
STORM COVERAGE WILL LIKELY PEAK EACH AFTERNOON BEFORE DIMINISHING
AFTER SUNSET. EXPECT LESS ACTIVITY ON SUNDAY AND EARLY NEXT
WEEK...ESPECIALLY ACROSS WESTERN ARIZONA.

&&

.UPDATE...THE MORNING KFGZ SOUNDING HAD 0.84 PWAT AND A CAP AT
AROUND 570 MB. PARTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS ACROSS MOST OF NORTHERN
ARIZONA WILL ALLOW FOR RAPID SURFACE HEATING AND STORMS SHOULD
START TO DEVELOP BY AROUND 1100. VISIBLE SATELLITE IS SHOWING A
MESOSCALE CIRCULATION OVER NORTHERN APACHE AND NAVAJO COUNTIES.
THIS WILL AID IN STORM DEVELOPMENT IN THOSE AREAS AND WILL UPDATE
TO INCREASE THE POPS THERE.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION /352 AM MST/... MOIST MONSOONAL FLOW WILL REMAIN
IN PLACE ACROSS NORTHERN ARIZONA TODAY AND SATURDAY...WITH STORM
COVERAGE FORECAST TO BE SLIGHTLY ABOVE CLIMATOLOGY.

FROM SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...SOMEWHAT DRIER SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL
SHIFT THE GREATEST CHANCES FOR PRECIP TO NAVAJO AND APACHE
COUNTIES...THOUGH WE WILL KEEP SLIGHT CHANCES TO THE WEST. DAILY
MAX/MIN TEMPS TO REMAIN NEAR SEASONAL NORMS THRU THE 7-DAY
FORECAST WITH GENERALLY LIGHT WINDS (EXCEPT NEAR THUNDERSTORMS)
ANTICIPATED.

&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 18Z PACKAGE...SCATTERED SHRA/TSRA DEVELOPING
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING...WITH A CHANCE OF SOME SHOWERS OR
THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUING OVERNIGHT. THE GREATEST IMPACTS TO AVIATION
WILL BE LOCAL MVFR/IFR IN HEAVY RAIN. AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT
UPDATED FOR AMENDMENTS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...AN ACTIVE MONSOON PATTERN WILL CONTINUE ACROSS
NORTHERN ARIZONA TODAY THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEKEND. EXPECT
SCATTERED AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. THE
GREATEST STORM HAZARDS WILL BE LIGHTNING AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN.

SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...A DRIER SOUTHWEST FLOW DEVELOPS OVER THE
REGION ON SUNDAY WHICH WILL BEGIN TO DECREASE MONSOON MOISTURE FROM
WEST TO EAST THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. EXPECT A DOWNTURN IN
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY THROUGH THIS PERIOD.

&&

.FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC...MAS/KD
AVIATION...JJ
FIRE WEATHER...MCS


FOR NORTHERN ARIZONA WEATHER INFORMATION VISIT
WEATHER.GOV/FLAGSTAFF




000
FXUS65 KFGZ 311638
AFDFGZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ
938 AM MST FRI JUL 31 2015

.SYNOPSIS...DEEP MOISTURE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE TODAY AND SATURDAY.
STORM COVERAGE WILL LIKELY PEAK EACH AFTERNOON BEFORE DIMINISHING
AFTER SUNSET. EXPECT LESS ACTIVITY ON SUNDAY AND EARLY NEXT
WEEK...ESPECIALLY ACROSS WESTERN ARIZONA.

&&

.UPDATE...THE MORNING KFGZ SOUNDING HAD 0.84 PWAT AND A CAP AT
AROUND 570 MB. PARTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS ACROSS MOST OF NORTHERN
ARIZONA WILL ALLOW FOR RAPID SURFACE HEATING AND STORMS SHOULD
START TO DEVELOP BY AROUND 1100. VISIBLE SATELLITE IS SHOWING A
MESOSCALE CIRCULATION OVER NORTHERN APACHE AND NAVAJO COUNTIES.
THIS WILL AID IN STORM DEVELOPMENT IN THOSE AREAS AND WILL UPDATE
TO INCREASE THE POPS THERE.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION /352 AM MST/... MOIST MONSOONAL FLOW WILL REMAIN
IN PLACE ACROSS NORTHERN ARIZONA TODAY AND SATURDAY...WITH STORM
COVERAGE FORECAST TO BE SLIGHTLY ABOVE CLIMATOLOGY.

FROM SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...SOMEWHAT DRIER SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL
SHIFT THE GREATEST CHANCES FOR PRECIP TO NAVAJO AND APACHE
COUNTIES...THOUGH WE WILL KEEP SLIGHT CHANCES TO THE WEST. DAILY
MAX/MIN TEMPS TO REMAIN NEAR SEASONAL NORMS THRU THE 7-DAY
FORECAST WITH GENERALLY LIGHT WINDS (EXCEPT NEAR THUNDERSTORMS)
ANTICIPATED.

&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 18Z PACKAGE...SCATTERED SHRA/TSRA DEVELOPING
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING...WITH A CHANCE OF SOME SHOWERS OR
THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUING OVERNIGHT. THE GREATEST IMPACTS TO AVIATION
WILL BE LOCAL MVFR/IFR IN HEAVY RAIN. AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT
UPDATED FOR AMENDMENTS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...AN ACTIVE MONSOON PATTERN WILL CONTINUE ACROSS
NORTHERN ARIZONA TODAY THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEKEND. EXPECT
SCATTERED AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. THE
GREATEST STORM HAZARDS WILL BE LIGHTNING AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN.

SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...A DRIER SOUTHWEST FLOW DEVELOPS OVER THE
REGION ON SUNDAY WHICH WILL BEGIN TO DECREASE MONSOON MOISTURE FROM
WEST TO EAST THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. EXPECT A DOWNTURN IN
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY THROUGH THIS PERIOD.

&&

.FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC...MAS/KD
AVIATION...JJ
FIRE WEATHER...MCS


FOR NORTHERN ARIZONA WEATHER INFORMATION VISIT
WEATHER.GOV/FLAGSTAFF



000
FXUS65 KTWC 311610
AFDTWC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ
910 AM MST FRI JUL 31 2015

.SYNOPSIS...A MORE ACTIVE THUNDERSTORM DAY ACROSS SOUTHEAST ARIZONA
TODAY. ALTHOUGH SOME DRIER AIR WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA THIS
WEEKEND INTO NEXT WEEK...THERE WILL BE ENOUGH MOISTURE AROUND FOR A
CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.DISCUSSION...WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND 31/12Z UPPER-AIR PLOTS SHOW
THE CENTER OF HIGH PRESSURE IN THE GENERAL VICINITY OF THE TEXAS
PANHANDLE...WITH A PACIFIC LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WELL OFF THE SOUTHERN
CALIFORNIA AND NORTHERN BAJA COASTS. AN MCS DEVELOPED LATE LAST
NIGHT OVER NORTHERN CHIHUAHUA MEXICO AND PUSHED INTO SOUTHWEST NEW
MEXICO AND EVENTUALLY RESULTED IN STORMS OVER EASTERN COCHISE
COUNTY...WHICH PRODUCED 1.34 INCHES IN 6 HOURS AT THE LONG PARK
GAUGE IN THE CHIRICAHUA MOUNTAINS. THIS ACTIVITY HAS SINCE
DISSIPATED WITH SOME RESIDUAL LIGHT SHOWERS OVER CENTRAL COCHISE
COUNTY.

WHAT A DIFFERENCE 12 HOURS CAN MAKE. YESTERDAYS 31/00Z KTWC SOUNDING
REVEALED A PW OF 1.10 INCHES AND ACTIVITY YESTERDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING WAS RATHER SPARSE. HOWEVER...THE 31/12Z KTWC SOUNDING CAME
IN WITH A PW OF 1.68 INCHES. THIS MORNINGS SOUNDING PARAMETERS SHOW
A MU CAPE OF AROUND 2200 J/KG AND A LIFTED INDEX OF MINUS 6. THE
MOST RECENT RADAR MOSAIC SHOWS ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
WEST OF THE TUCSON METRO BETWEEN PICTURE ROCKS AND THREE POINTS AND
THESE SHOWERS/STORMS ARE MOVING WEST. ADDITIONAL SHOWERS ARE ALSO
OVER NORTHERN SONORA JUST SOUTH OF NOGALES. WE SHOULD BE FAIRLY
ACTIVE TODAY AND THE 31/00Z RUN OF THE U OF A WRF/NAM SHOWS ACTIVITY
MOSTLY OVER CENTRAL AND WESTERN LOCATIONS...BUT ALSO THE MOUNTAINS
OVER GREENLEE...GRAHAM AND COCHISE COUNTIES. 00Z WRF/GFS SHOWS A
SIMILAR OUTCOME BUT THE ACTIVITY IS LESS INTENSE THAN THE NAM. 12Z
HRRR ALSO SHOWS US TO BE MOST ACTIVE WEST OF TUCSON. INHERITED POP
FORECAST FOR THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING REFLECT THIS NOTION QUITE
WELL...SO NO CHANGES ARE PLANNED TO THE POP FORECAST AT THIS
TIME...BUT WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR SATELLITE AND RADAR TRENDS AND
WILL MAKE ADJUSTMENTS LATER IN THE MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON...IF
NEEDED.

NIGHT SHIFT INCLUDED A MENTION OF BLOWING DUST OVER PARTS OF PIMA
AND PINAL COUNTIES LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY THIS EVENING AS
STORMS EXPECTED TO FIRE OFF AND MOVE IN THAT GENERAL DIRECTION.

DAYTIME HIGHS TODAY WILL BE RATHER TRICKY WITH CLOUD COVER IN PLACE.
YESTERDAYS TEMPS REBOUNDED VERY QUICKLY AFTER CLOUDINESS ERODED...SO
SUSPECT THE SAME FOR TODAY. THAT SAID...I DON`T PLAN ON MAKING ANY
CHANGES TO THE TEMP FORECAST...BUT WILL MONITOR THROUGHOUT THE
MORNING.

PLEASE REFER TO PREVIOUS DISCUSSION BELOW FOR INFO REGARDING
FORECAST DETAILS BEYOND TODAY.

&&

.AVIATION...VALID THRU 31/18Z.
ISOLD -SHRA/TS MAINLY W AND S OF KTUS THRU 31/18Z. OTRW DECREASING
CLOUDS THRU 31/18Z. SCTD SHRA/TSRA DEVELOPING AFT 31/18Z. BRIEF WIND
GUSTS BTWN 35-45 KTS POSSIBLE IN AND AROUND THE STRONGER TSRA. AREAS
OF BLDU PSBL W AND NW OF KTUS AFT 31/22Z. OUTSIDE OF STORM
INFLUENCES SFC WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE LESS THAN 12 KTS WITH A FEW
HIGHER GUSTS IN THE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING HOURS. AVIATION
DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR TAF AMENDMENTS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TODAY WITH
STRONG OUTFLOW WINDS LIKELY...ESPECIALLY FROM TUCSON WEST. WITH THE
POTENTIAL FOR TODAY TO BE AN ACTIVE DAY...SATURDAY MAY SEE LIMITED
ACTIVITY. INCREASING SW WINDS ALOFT ON SUNDAY WILL BRING DRIER AIR
INTO THE REGION FOR ISOLATED TO LOW SCATTERED THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE.
LOW GRADE MONSOON ACTIVITY NEXT WEEK...MAINLY SOUTH AND EAST OF
TUCSON. STRONG OUTFLOW WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE NEAR THUNDERSTORMS.
OTHERWISE...20-FT WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE TERRAIN DRIVEN AND LESS
THAN 15 MPH...WITH SOME AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING BREEZINESS DUE
TO THE STRONG DAYTIME HEATING.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...SATURDAY FORECAST HIGHLY DEPENDENT ON WHAT
HAPPENS TODAY AND WITH THE FORECAST FOR AN UP DAY TODAY...WENT WITH
LOWER POPS AS SOME DRIER AIR STARTS TO FILTER IN AS FLOW ALOFT
STARTS TO TURN OUT OF THE SW.

SUNDAY...INCREASING SW FLOW ALOFT WILL PUSH DEEPER MOISTURE TO THE
EAST LIMITING THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE TO AREAS EAST AND SOUTH OF
TUCSON.

NEXT WEEK...STANDARD LOW GRADE MONSOON FORECAST.

&&

.TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...YOUTUBE...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/TUCSON




000
FXUS65 KTWC 311610
AFDTWC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ
910 AM MST FRI JUL 31 2015

.SYNOPSIS...A MORE ACTIVE THUNDERSTORM DAY ACROSS SOUTHEAST ARIZONA
TODAY. ALTHOUGH SOME DRIER AIR WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA THIS
WEEKEND INTO NEXT WEEK...THERE WILL BE ENOUGH MOISTURE AROUND FOR A
CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.DISCUSSION...WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND 31/12Z UPPER-AIR PLOTS SHOW
THE CENTER OF HIGH PRESSURE IN THE GENERAL VICINITY OF THE TEXAS
PANHANDLE...WITH A PACIFIC LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WELL OFF THE SOUTHERN
CALIFORNIA AND NORTHERN BAJA COASTS. AN MCS DEVELOPED LATE LAST
NIGHT OVER NORTHERN CHIHUAHUA MEXICO AND PUSHED INTO SOUTHWEST NEW
MEXICO AND EVENTUALLY RESULTED IN STORMS OVER EASTERN COCHISE
COUNTY...WHICH PRODUCED 1.34 INCHES IN 6 HOURS AT THE LONG PARK
GAUGE IN THE CHIRICAHUA MOUNTAINS. THIS ACTIVITY HAS SINCE
DISSIPATED WITH SOME RESIDUAL LIGHT SHOWERS OVER CENTRAL COCHISE
COUNTY.

WHAT A DIFFERENCE 12 HOURS CAN MAKE. YESTERDAYS 31/00Z KTWC SOUNDING
REVEALED A PW OF 1.10 INCHES AND ACTIVITY YESTERDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING WAS RATHER SPARSE. HOWEVER...THE 31/12Z KTWC SOUNDING CAME
IN WITH A PW OF 1.68 INCHES. THIS MORNINGS SOUNDING PARAMETERS SHOW
A MU CAPE OF AROUND 2200 J/KG AND A LIFTED INDEX OF MINUS 6. THE
MOST RECENT RADAR MOSAIC SHOWS ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
WEST OF THE TUCSON METRO BETWEEN PICTURE ROCKS AND THREE POINTS AND
THESE SHOWERS/STORMS ARE MOVING WEST. ADDITIONAL SHOWERS ARE ALSO
OVER NORTHERN SONORA JUST SOUTH OF NOGALES. WE SHOULD BE FAIRLY
ACTIVE TODAY AND THE 31/00Z RUN OF THE U OF A WRF/NAM SHOWS ACTIVITY
MOSTLY OVER CENTRAL AND WESTERN LOCATIONS...BUT ALSO THE MOUNTAINS
OVER GREENLEE...GRAHAM AND COCHISE COUNTIES. 00Z WRF/GFS SHOWS A
SIMILAR OUTCOME BUT THE ACTIVITY IS LESS INTENSE THAN THE NAM. 12Z
HRRR ALSO SHOWS US TO BE MOST ACTIVE WEST OF TUCSON. INHERITED POP
FORECAST FOR THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING REFLECT THIS NOTION QUITE
WELL...SO NO CHANGES ARE PLANNED TO THE POP FORECAST AT THIS
TIME...BUT WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR SATELLITE AND RADAR TRENDS AND
WILL MAKE ADJUSTMENTS LATER IN THE MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON...IF
NEEDED.

NIGHT SHIFT INCLUDED A MENTION OF BLOWING DUST OVER PARTS OF PIMA
AND PINAL COUNTIES LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY THIS EVENING AS
STORMS EXPECTED TO FIRE OFF AND MOVE IN THAT GENERAL DIRECTION.

DAYTIME HIGHS TODAY WILL BE RATHER TRICKY WITH CLOUD COVER IN PLACE.
YESTERDAYS TEMPS REBOUNDED VERY QUICKLY AFTER CLOUDINESS ERODED...SO
SUSPECT THE SAME FOR TODAY. THAT SAID...I DON`T PLAN ON MAKING ANY
CHANGES TO THE TEMP FORECAST...BUT WILL MONITOR THROUGHOUT THE
MORNING.

PLEASE REFER TO PREVIOUS DISCUSSION BELOW FOR INFO REGARDING
FORECAST DETAILS BEYOND TODAY.

&&

.AVIATION...VALID THRU 31/18Z.
ISOLD -SHRA/TS MAINLY W AND S OF KTUS THRU 31/18Z. OTRW DECREASING
CLOUDS THRU 31/18Z. SCTD SHRA/TSRA DEVELOPING AFT 31/18Z. BRIEF WIND
GUSTS BTWN 35-45 KTS POSSIBLE IN AND AROUND THE STRONGER TSRA. AREAS
OF BLDU PSBL W AND NW OF KTUS AFT 31/22Z. OUTSIDE OF STORM
INFLUENCES SFC WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE LESS THAN 12 KTS WITH A FEW
HIGHER GUSTS IN THE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING HOURS. AVIATION
DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR TAF AMENDMENTS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TODAY WITH
STRONG OUTFLOW WINDS LIKELY...ESPECIALLY FROM TUCSON WEST. WITH THE
POTENTIAL FOR TODAY TO BE AN ACTIVE DAY...SATURDAY MAY SEE LIMITED
ACTIVITY. INCREASING SW WINDS ALOFT ON SUNDAY WILL BRING DRIER AIR
INTO THE REGION FOR ISOLATED TO LOW SCATTERED THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE.
LOW GRADE MONSOON ACTIVITY NEXT WEEK...MAINLY SOUTH AND EAST OF
TUCSON. STRONG OUTFLOW WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE NEAR THUNDERSTORMS.
OTHERWISE...20-FT WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE TERRAIN DRIVEN AND LESS
THAN 15 MPH...WITH SOME AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING BREEZINESS DUE
TO THE STRONG DAYTIME HEATING.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...SATURDAY FORECAST HIGHLY DEPENDENT ON WHAT
HAPPENS TODAY AND WITH THE FORECAST FOR AN UP DAY TODAY...WENT WITH
LOWER POPS AS SOME DRIER AIR STARTS TO FILTER IN AS FLOW ALOFT
STARTS TO TURN OUT OF THE SW.

SUNDAY...INCREASING SW FLOW ALOFT WILL PUSH DEEPER MOISTURE TO THE
EAST LIMITING THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE TO AREAS EAST AND SOUTH OF
TUCSON.

NEXT WEEK...STANDARD LOW GRADE MONSOON FORECAST.

&&

.TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...YOUTUBE...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/TUCSON



000
FXUS65 KPSR 311154
AFDPSR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PHOENIX AZ
454 AM MST FRI JUL 31 2015

.UPDATE...TO AVIATION AND FIRE WEATHER DISCUSSION...

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED STORM ACTIVITY IS ANTICIPATED OVER ARIZONA AND
SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA AGAIN TODAY. A NOTABLE DOWNTREND IN MOISTURE
FROM WEST TO EAST IS EXPECTED OVER THE WEEKEND. THIS WILL KEEP STORM
CHANCES LIMITED TO SOUTH- CENTRAL ARIZONA WELL INTO NEXT WEEK.
TEMPERATURES WILL NOT CHANGE MUCH DAY TO DAY REMAINING AT OR ABOVE
SEASONABLE AVERAGE.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
LOOKING AT 00Z SOUNDINGS FROM BOTH TUCSON AND PHOENIX...SOMEWHAT
DRIER COMPARED TO 12Z ON THURSDAY...HOWEVER STILL FAIRLY AVERAGE FOR
THIS TIME OF YEAR FOR PWAT VALUES. AFTER AN ACTIVE EVENING ACROSS
SOUTHEAST ARIZONA AND SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA...PER LATEST IR SATELLITE
IMAGERY A NICE MCS HAS MADE AN APPEARANCE OVER SONORA AND IS TRACKING
WESTWARD BUT STILL DELIVERING A VAST AMOUNT OF CLOUD COVER AND
ISOLATED LIGHTNING THIS SIDE OF THE BORDER. THE STRUGGLE TODAY WILL
BE CLOUD COVER AND IF IT WILL HINDER CONVECTION OPPORTUNITIES INTO
THE CENTRAL DESERTS.

STILL UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF SOUTH-SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW ON THE BACKSIDE
OF THE HIGH...THE SHORTWAVE FEATURE THAT IS PROVIDING THE LIFT AND
DYNAMICS CONTINUES TO MOVE NORTHWARD INTO THE FOUR CORNERS REGION.
PRECIPITABLE WATER READINGS ARE FORECAST TO REACH 1.65-1.7 INCH
THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING...WHICH AGAIN IS ABOUT PAR FOR THE COURSE
THIS TIME OF YEAR. TWO OUT OF THREE KEY INGREDIENTS FOR STORM
INITIATION ARE PRESENT AND THE THIRD REALLY HINGES ON DAYTIME
HEATING. AS WE SAW A FEW DAYS AGO THE CLOUDS PLAY A LARGE PART IN
WHETHER STORMS WILL INITIATE OR NOT. BOUNDARY LAYER AND OUTFLOW
INTERACTION ALWAYS AIDE WITH DEVELOPMENT. LOCAL MESOSCALE CONVECTIVE
MODELS ALLUDE TO CLOUDS CLEARING BY MID MORNING FOR CENTRAL ARIZONA
AS WELL AS ELEVATED INSTABILITY BY MID-DAY /CLOSE TO 800 J/KG OF
CAPE/ WHICH WOULD LATER BE REALIZED WITH DAYTIME HEATING. ALL THIS
SAID...TODAY COULD PLAY OUT EITHER WITH STABLE CONDITIONS PERSISTING
DUE TO NO CLEARING OR MID TO LATE AFTERNOON CONVECTION WILL INITIATE
SOUTHEAST OF PHOENIX AND PROPAGATE NORTHWARD. I AM TENDING TO LEAN ON
THE CLEARING OUT OPTION.

FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE A DRY BOUNDARY LAYER /7-8 G/KG MIXING
RATIO/ WITH SUFFICIENT HEATING CREATING AN INVERTED-V TYPE SOUNDING
WITH WARMER MAX TEMPS THIS AFTERNOON. INSTABILITY IN PLACE AND
CONVECTION DEVELOPING SOUTHEAST OF PHOENIX WITH A SOUTHEASTERLY
FLOW...SIGNS POINT TO BLOWING DUST. ALL HIGH-RES MODELS TEND TO AGREE
ON A RATHER ACTIVE EVENING ACROSS THE LOWER DESERTS. WHILE NOT A
SLAM-DUNK FLOOD SCENARIO...CAN`T RULE OUT LOCALIZED FLOODING...AS
WELL AS GUSTY WINDS WITH THE STRONGER STORMS.

AFTER TODAY DRIER AIR BEGINS TO FILTER IN WITH A SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW
STARTING TO TAKE SHAPE. SATURDAY HAS LESS THAN IDEAL CONDITIONS FOR
MONSOONAL ACTIVITY ACROSS THE LOWER AND CENTRAL DESERTS WITH MORE OF
A CONFLUENT FLOW. MOUNTAIN LOCATIONS OF EASTERN ARIZONA WILL STILL
SEE A SLIGHT OR BETTER CHANCE FOR AFTERNOON AND EVENING CONVECTION
FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS...GRADUALLY TRENDING DOWNWARD. SLIGHT
WARMING WILL ALSO TAKE PLACE WITH TEMPERATURES RANGING 102 TO 108
EACH DAY.

&&

.AVIATION...
SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA INCLUDING KPHX...KIWA...AND KSDL...
BKN-OVC MID AND HIGH LEVEL CIGS WILL CONTINUE TO DRIFT ACROSS THE
AREA THIS AM FROM DECAYING STORM COMPLEXES SOUTH OF THE BORDER AND
ACROSS SE AZ. HOW FAST AND TO WHAT EXTENT THESE CLEAR TODAY WILL
EITHER HELP OR HURT THE PHX METRO IN TERMS OF STORM CHANCES
IMPACTING THE TERMINALS LATER INTO THE EVENING. GNLY LIGHT AM SFC
WINDS NOTED AT SITES AROUND THE METRO WITH SUBTLE WEST FLOW VIA TPHX
AND KIWA VELOCITIES...SO ELECTED TO GO WITH VRB IN FOR PHX. SPEEDS
SHOULD BE LIGHT AND MANAGEABLE UNTIL MORE PROMINENT WESTERLY FLOW
SETTLES INTO THE AREA AFTER MIDDAY.

IF SKIES CLEAR AND WE ARE ABLE TO DECENTLY WARM THE DESERTS...STORMS
ARE FCST TO BEGIN FIRING OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN AND FOOTHILLS EAST
AND SOUTH OF PHOENIX. STORM INITIATION AND/OR SURVIVAL INTO THE PHX
METRO WILL LIKELY DEPEND ON STORM OUTFLOWS AND THEIR INTERACTION.
FOLLOWING HOW CONDITIONS HAVE MATERIALIZED SO FAR THIS
SUMMER...THESE OUTFLOW PASSAGES TEND BE POST 00Z...SO DID INCLUDE
VCTS MENTION 01/02Z FOR KSDL AND KIWA AND 01/04Z FOR KPHX.
CONFIDENCE IS MODERATE ON STORM DEVELOPMENT THIS EVENING...HOPING
THAT DAYTIME CLOUD COVER CLEARS ENOUGH TO NOT DAMPEN/SHUT DOWN STORM
CHANCES LATER INTO THE EVENING.


SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA AND SOUTHWEST ARIZONA INCLUDING KIPL AND
KBLH...
SCT-BKN MID LEVEL CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO STREAM OVER THE TERMINALS
FROM THE SOUTH THROUGH THE AM...OTHERWISE SKIES WILL MAINTAIN FEW-
SCT CLOUD COVERAGE. WEST WINDS TO HOLD MOSTLY FOR KIPL THROUGHOUT
THE DAY WHILE SOUTHERLY HEADINGS ARE IN STORE FOR KBLH. SLIGHT
CHANCE FOR ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT INTO THE AFTN ALONG THE
CO RIVER VALLEY...SO AT LEAST VCSH MENTION IS BACK IN THE KBLH TAF
FOR THE AFTN/EVENING HOURS.

AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDED TAFS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...
MONSOONAL MOISTURE WILL SLOWLY BEGIN TO THIN ACROSS THE AREA...FIRST
ACROSS THE WESTERN FIRE DISTRICTS AND EVENTUALLY INTO THE ENTIRE
LOWER DESERT ELEVATIONS AND REGION BY EARLY NEXT WEEK. THIS WILL
RELEGATE STORM CHANCES BACK TOWARDS THE HIGHER TERRAIN AND FURTHER
TO THE EAST ACROSS AZ. MINIMUM RH VALUES WILL BEGIN TO SETTLE INTO
THE TEENS WHILE MAKING MOSTLY MODEST TO FAIR OVERNIGHT RECOVERIES.
THE SLIGHTLY DRIER AIRMASS AND BUILDING UPPER RIDGE HEIGHTS WILL
LEND THEMSELVES TOWARD WARMER SFC CONDITIONS...AT OR ABOVE SEASONAL
NORMALS. WINDS WILL FOLLOW FAMILIAR WARM SEASON PATTERNS. BY MIDWEEK
A SUBTLE RETURN OF GULF MOISTURE MAY BOOST AREA HUMIDITIES...BUT NOT
LINGER MUCH THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT CONDITIONS ACCORDING TO STANDARD
OPERATING PROCEDURES.

&&

.PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AZ...NONE.
CA...NONE.
&&

$$

VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/PHOENIX

DISCUSSION...DEWEY
AVIATION...NOLTE
FIRE WEATHER...NOLTE




000
FXUS65 KPSR 311154
AFDPSR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PHOENIX AZ
454 AM MST FRI JUL 31 2015

.UPDATE...TO AVIATION AND FIRE WEATHER DISCUSSION...

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED STORM ACTIVITY IS ANTICIPATED OVER ARIZONA AND
SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA AGAIN TODAY. A NOTABLE DOWNTREND IN MOISTURE
FROM WEST TO EAST IS EXPECTED OVER THE WEEKEND. THIS WILL KEEP STORM
CHANCES LIMITED TO SOUTH- CENTRAL ARIZONA WELL INTO NEXT WEEK.
TEMPERATURES WILL NOT CHANGE MUCH DAY TO DAY REMAINING AT OR ABOVE
SEASONABLE AVERAGE.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
LOOKING AT 00Z SOUNDINGS FROM BOTH TUCSON AND PHOENIX...SOMEWHAT
DRIER COMPARED TO 12Z ON THURSDAY...HOWEVER STILL FAIRLY AVERAGE FOR
THIS TIME OF YEAR FOR PWAT VALUES. AFTER AN ACTIVE EVENING ACROSS
SOUTHEAST ARIZONA AND SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA...PER LATEST IR SATELLITE
IMAGERY A NICE MCS HAS MADE AN APPEARANCE OVER SONORA AND IS TRACKING
WESTWARD BUT STILL DELIVERING A VAST AMOUNT OF CLOUD COVER AND
ISOLATED LIGHTNING THIS SIDE OF THE BORDER. THE STRUGGLE TODAY WILL
BE CLOUD COVER AND IF IT WILL HINDER CONVECTION OPPORTUNITIES INTO
THE CENTRAL DESERTS.

STILL UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF SOUTH-SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW ON THE BACKSIDE
OF THE HIGH...THE SHORTWAVE FEATURE THAT IS PROVIDING THE LIFT AND
DYNAMICS CONTINUES TO MOVE NORTHWARD INTO THE FOUR CORNERS REGION.
PRECIPITABLE WATER READINGS ARE FORECAST TO REACH 1.65-1.7 INCH
THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING...WHICH AGAIN IS ABOUT PAR FOR THE COURSE
THIS TIME OF YEAR. TWO OUT OF THREE KEY INGREDIENTS FOR STORM
INITIATION ARE PRESENT AND THE THIRD REALLY HINGES ON DAYTIME
HEATING. AS WE SAW A FEW DAYS AGO THE CLOUDS PLAY A LARGE PART IN
WHETHER STORMS WILL INITIATE OR NOT. BOUNDARY LAYER AND OUTFLOW
INTERACTION ALWAYS AIDE WITH DEVELOPMENT. LOCAL MESOSCALE CONVECTIVE
MODELS ALLUDE TO CLOUDS CLEARING BY MID MORNING FOR CENTRAL ARIZONA
AS WELL AS ELEVATED INSTABILITY BY MID-DAY /CLOSE TO 800 J/KG OF
CAPE/ WHICH WOULD LATER BE REALIZED WITH DAYTIME HEATING. ALL THIS
SAID...TODAY COULD PLAY OUT EITHER WITH STABLE CONDITIONS PERSISTING
DUE TO NO CLEARING OR MID TO LATE AFTERNOON CONVECTION WILL INITIATE
SOUTHEAST OF PHOENIX AND PROPAGATE NORTHWARD. I AM TENDING TO LEAN ON
THE CLEARING OUT OPTION.

FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE A DRY BOUNDARY LAYER /7-8 G/KG MIXING
RATIO/ WITH SUFFICIENT HEATING CREATING AN INVERTED-V TYPE SOUNDING
WITH WARMER MAX TEMPS THIS AFTERNOON. INSTABILITY IN PLACE AND
CONVECTION DEVELOPING SOUTHEAST OF PHOENIX WITH A SOUTHEASTERLY
FLOW...SIGNS POINT TO BLOWING DUST. ALL HIGH-RES MODELS TEND TO AGREE
ON A RATHER ACTIVE EVENING ACROSS THE LOWER DESERTS. WHILE NOT A
SLAM-DUNK FLOOD SCENARIO...CAN`T RULE OUT LOCALIZED FLOODING...AS
WELL AS GUSTY WINDS WITH THE STRONGER STORMS.

AFTER TODAY DRIER AIR BEGINS TO FILTER IN WITH A SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW
STARTING TO TAKE SHAPE. SATURDAY HAS LESS THAN IDEAL CONDITIONS FOR
MONSOONAL ACTIVITY ACROSS THE LOWER AND CENTRAL DESERTS WITH MORE OF
A CONFLUENT FLOW. MOUNTAIN LOCATIONS OF EASTERN ARIZONA WILL STILL
SEE A SLIGHT OR BETTER CHANCE FOR AFTERNOON AND EVENING CONVECTION
FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS...GRADUALLY TRENDING DOWNWARD. SLIGHT
WARMING WILL ALSO TAKE PLACE WITH TEMPERATURES RANGING 102 TO 108
EACH DAY.

&&

.AVIATION...
SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA INCLUDING KPHX...KIWA...AND KSDL...
BKN-OVC MID AND HIGH LEVEL CIGS WILL CONTINUE TO DRIFT ACROSS THE
AREA THIS AM FROM DECAYING STORM COMPLEXES SOUTH OF THE BORDER AND
ACROSS SE AZ. HOW FAST AND TO WHAT EXTENT THESE CLEAR TODAY WILL
EITHER HELP OR HURT THE PHX METRO IN TERMS OF STORM CHANCES
IMPACTING THE TERMINALS LATER INTO THE EVENING. GNLY LIGHT AM SFC
WINDS NOTED AT SITES AROUND THE METRO WITH SUBTLE WEST FLOW VIA TPHX
AND KIWA VELOCITIES...SO ELECTED TO GO WITH VRB IN FOR PHX. SPEEDS
SHOULD BE LIGHT AND MANAGEABLE UNTIL MORE PROMINENT WESTERLY FLOW
SETTLES INTO THE AREA AFTER MIDDAY.

IF SKIES CLEAR AND WE ARE ABLE TO DECENTLY WARM THE DESERTS...STORMS
ARE FCST TO BEGIN FIRING OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN AND FOOTHILLS EAST
AND SOUTH OF PHOENIX. STORM INITIATION AND/OR SURVIVAL INTO THE PHX
METRO WILL LIKELY DEPEND ON STORM OUTFLOWS AND THEIR INTERACTION.
FOLLOWING HOW CONDITIONS HAVE MATERIALIZED SO FAR THIS
SUMMER...THESE OUTFLOW PASSAGES TEND BE POST 00Z...SO DID INCLUDE
VCTS MENTION 01/02Z FOR KSDL AND KIWA AND 01/04Z FOR KPHX.
CONFIDENCE IS MODERATE ON STORM DEVELOPMENT THIS EVENING...HOPING
THAT DAYTIME CLOUD COVER CLEARS ENOUGH TO NOT DAMPEN/SHUT DOWN STORM
CHANCES LATER INTO THE EVENING.


SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA AND SOUTHWEST ARIZONA INCLUDING KIPL AND
KBLH...
SCT-BKN MID LEVEL CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO STREAM OVER THE TERMINALS
FROM THE SOUTH THROUGH THE AM...OTHERWISE SKIES WILL MAINTAIN FEW-
SCT CLOUD COVERAGE. WEST WINDS TO HOLD MOSTLY FOR KIPL THROUGHOUT
THE DAY WHILE SOUTHERLY HEADINGS ARE IN STORE FOR KBLH. SLIGHT
CHANCE FOR ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT INTO THE AFTN ALONG THE
CO RIVER VALLEY...SO AT LEAST VCSH MENTION IS BACK IN THE KBLH TAF
FOR THE AFTN/EVENING HOURS.

AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDED TAFS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...
MONSOONAL MOISTURE WILL SLOWLY BEGIN TO THIN ACROSS THE AREA...FIRST
ACROSS THE WESTERN FIRE DISTRICTS AND EVENTUALLY INTO THE ENTIRE
LOWER DESERT ELEVATIONS AND REGION BY EARLY NEXT WEEK. THIS WILL
RELEGATE STORM CHANCES BACK TOWARDS THE HIGHER TERRAIN AND FURTHER
TO THE EAST ACROSS AZ. MINIMUM RH VALUES WILL BEGIN TO SETTLE INTO
THE TEENS WHILE MAKING MOSTLY MODEST TO FAIR OVERNIGHT RECOVERIES.
THE SLIGHTLY DRIER AIRMASS AND BUILDING UPPER RIDGE HEIGHTS WILL
LEND THEMSELVES TOWARD WARMER SFC CONDITIONS...AT OR ABOVE SEASONAL
NORMALS. WINDS WILL FOLLOW FAMILIAR WARM SEASON PATTERNS. BY MIDWEEK
A SUBTLE RETURN OF GULF MOISTURE MAY BOOST AREA HUMIDITIES...BUT NOT
LINGER MUCH THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT CONDITIONS ACCORDING TO STANDARD
OPERATING PROCEDURES.

&&

.PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AZ...NONE.
CA...NONE.
&&

$$

VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/PHOENIX

DISCUSSION...DEWEY
AVIATION...NOLTE
FIRE WEATHER...NOLTE




000
FXUS65 KPSR 311154
AFDPSR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PHOENIX AZ
454 AM MST FRI JUL 31 2015

.UPDATE...TO AVIATION AND FIRE WEATHER DISCUSSION...

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED STORM ACTIVITY IS ANTICIPATED OVER ARIZONA AND
SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA AGAIN TODAY. A NOTABLE DOWNTREND IN MOISTURE
FROM WEST TO EAST IS EXPECTED OVER THE WEEKEND. THIS WILL KEEP STORM
CHANCES LIMITED TO SOUTH- CENTRAL ARIZONA WELL INTO NEXT WEEK.
TEMPERATURES WILL NOT CHANGE MUCH DAY TO DAY REMAINING AT OR ABOVE
SEASONABLE AVERAGE.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
LOOKING AT 00Z SOUNDINGS FROM BOTH TUCSON AND PHOENIX...SOMEWHAT
DRIER COMPARED TO 12Z ON THURSDAY...HOWEVER STILL FAIRLY AVERAGE FOR
THIS TIME OF YEAR FOR PWAT VALUES. AFTER AN ACTIVE EVENING ACROSS
SOUTHEAST ARIZONA AND SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA...PER LATEST IR SATELLITE
IMAGERY A NICE MCS HAS MADE AN APPEARANCE OVER SONORA AND IS TRACKING
WESTWARD BUT STILL DELIVERING A VAST AMOUNT OF CLOUD COVER AND
ISOLATED LIGHTNING THIS SIDE OF THE BORDER. THE STRUGGLE TODAY WILL
BE CLOUD COVER AND IF IT WILL HINDER CONVECTION OPPORTUNITIES INTO
THE CENTRAL DESERTS.

STILL UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF SOUTH-SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW ON THE BACKSIDE
OF THE HIGH...THE SHORTWAVE FEATURE THAT IS PROVIDING THE LIFT AND
DYNAMICS CONTINUES TO MOVE NORTHWARD INTO THE FOUR CORNERS REGION.
PRECIPITABLE WATER READINGS ARE FORECAST TO REACH 1.65-1.7 INCH
THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING...WHICH AGAIN IS ABOUT PAR FOR THE COURSE
THIS TIME OF YEAR. TWO OUT OF THREE KEY INGREDIENTS FOR STORM
INITIATION ARE PRESENT AND THE THIRD REALLY HINGES ON DAYTIME
HEATING. AS WE SAW A FEW DAYS AGO THE CLOUDS PLAY A LARGE PART IN
WHETHER STORMS WILL INITIATE OR NOT. BOUNDARY LAYER AND OUTFLOW
INTERACTION ALWAYS AIDE WITH DEVELOPMENT. LOCAL MESOSCALE CONVECTIVE
MODELS ALLUDE TO CLOUDS CLEARING BY MID MORNING FOR CENTRAL ARIZONA
AS WELL AS ELEVATED INSTABILITY BY MID-DAY /CLOSE TO 800 J/KG OF
CAPE/ WHICH WOULD LATER BE REALIZED WITH DAYTIME HEATING. ALL THIS
SAID...TODAY COULD PLAY OUT EITHER WITH STABLE CONDITIONS PERSISTING
DUE TO NO CLEARING OR MID TO LATE AFTERNOON CONVECTION WILL INITIATE
SOUTHEAST OF PHOENIX AND PROPAGATE NORTHWARD. I AM TENDING TO LEAN ON
THE CLEARING OUT OPTION.

FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE A DRY BOUNDARY LAYER /7-8 G/KG MIXING
RATIO/ WITH SUFFICIENT HEATING CREATING AN INVERTED-V TYPE SOUNDING
WITH WARMER MAX TEMPS THIS AFTERNOON. INSTABILITY IN PLACE AND
CONVECTION DEVELOPING SOUTHEAST OF PHOENIX WITH A SOUTHEASTERLY
FLOW...SIGNS POINT TO BLOWING DUST. ALL HIGH-RES MODELS TEND TO AGREE
ON A RATHER ACTIVE EVENING ACROSS THE LOWER DESERTS. WHILE NOT A
SLAM-DUNK FLOOD SCENARIO...CAN`T RULE OUT LOCALIZED FLOODING...AS
WELL AS GUSTY WINDS WITH THE STRONGER STORMS.

AFTER TODAY DRIER AIR BEGINS TO FILTER IN WITH A SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW
STARTING TO TAKE SHAPE. SATURDAY HAS LESS THAN IDEAL CONDITIONS FOR
MONSOONAL ACTIVITY ACROSS THE LOWER AND CENTRAL DESERTS WITH MORE OF
A CONFLUENT FLOW. MOUNTAIN LOCATIONS OF EASTERN ARIZONA WILL STILL
SEE A SLIGHT OR BETTER CHANCE FOR AFTERNOON AND EVENING CONVECTION
FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS...GRADUALLY TRENDING DOWNWARD. SLIGHT
WARMING WILL ALSO TAKE PLACE WITH TEMPERATURES RANGING 102 TO 108
EACH DAY.

&&

.AVIATION...
SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA INCLUDING KPHX...KIWA...AND KSDL...
BKN-OVC MID AND HIGH LEVEL CIGS WILL CONTINUE TO DRIFT ACROSS THE
AREA THIS AM FROM DECAYING STORM COMPLEXES SOUTH OF THE BORDER AND
ACROSS SE AZ. HOW FAST AND TO WHAT EXTENT THESE CLEAR TODAY WILL
EITHER HELP OR HURT THE PHX METRO IN TERMS OF STORM CHANCES
IMPACTING THE TERMINALS LATER INTO THE EVENING. GNLY LIGHT AM SFC
WINDS NOTED AT SITES AROUND THE METRO WITH SUBTLE WEST FLOW VIA TPHX
AND KIWA VELOCITIES...SO ELECTED TO GO WITH VRB IN FOR PHX. SPEEDS
SHOULD BE LIGHT AND MANAGEABLE UNTIL MORE PROMINENT WESTERLY FLOW
SETTLES INTO THE AREA AFTER MIDDAY.

IF SKIES CLEAR AND WE ARE ABLE TO DECENTLY WARM THE DESERTS...STORMS
ARE FCST TO BEGIN FIRING OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN AND FOOTHILLS EAST
AND SOUTH OF PHOENIX. STORM INITIATION AND/OR SURVIVAL INTO THE PHX
METRO WILL LIKELY DEPEND ON STORM OUTFLOWS AND THEIR INTERACTION.
FOLLOWING HOW CONDITIONS HAVE MATERIALIZED SO FAR THIS
SUMMER...THESE OUTFLOW PASSAGES TEND BE POST 00Z...SO DID INCLUDE
VCTS MENTION 01/02Z FOR KSDL AND KIWA AND 01/04Z FOR KPHX.
CONFIDENCE IS MODERATE ON STORM DEVELOPMENT THIS EVENING...HOPING
THAT DAYTIME CLOUD COVER CLEARS ENOUGH TO NOT DAMPEN/SHUT DOWN STORM
CHANCES LATER INTO THE EVENING.


SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA AND SOUTHWEST ARIZONA INCLUDING KIPL AND
KBLH...
SCT-BKN MID LEVEL CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO STREAM OVER THE TERMINALS
FROM THE SOUTH THROUGH THE AM...OTHERWISE SKIES WILL MAINTAIN FEW-
SCT CLOUD COVERAGE. WEST WINDS TO HOLD MOSTLY FOR KIPL THROUGHOUT
THE DAY WHILE SOUTHERLY HEADINGS ARE IN STORE FOR KBLH. SLIGHT
CHANCE FOR ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT INTO THE AFTN ALONG THE
CO RIVER VALLEY...SO AT LEAST VCSH MENTION IS BACK IN THE KBLH TAF
FOR THE AFTN/EVENING HOURS.

AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDED TAFS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...
MONSOONAL MOISTURE WILL SLOWLY BEGIN TO THIN ACROSS THE AREA...FIRST
ACROSS THE WESTERN FIRE DISTRICTS AND EVENTUALLY INTO THE ENTIRE
LOWER DESERT ELEVATIONS AND REGION BY EARLY NEXT WEEK. THIS WILL
RELEGATE STORM CHANCES BACK TOWARDS THE HIGHER TERRAIN AND FURTHER
TO THE EAST ACROSS AZ. MINIMUM RH VALUES WILL BEGIN TO SETTLE INTO
THE TEENS WHILE MAKING MOSTLY MODEST TO FAIR OVERNIGHT RECOVERIES.
THE SLIGHTLY DRIER AIRMASS AND BUILDING UPPER RIDGE HEIGHTS WILL
LEND THEMSELVES TOWARD WARMER SFC CONDITIONS...AT OR ABOVE SEASONAL
NORMALS. WINDS WILL FOLLOW FAMILIAR WARM SEASON PATTERNS. BY MIDWEEK
A SUBTLE RETURN OF GULF MOISTURE MAY BOOST AREA HUMIDITIES...BUT NOT
LINGER MUCH THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT CONDITIONS ACCORDING TO STANDARD
OPERATING PROCEDURES.

&&

.PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AZ...NONE.
CA...NONE.
&&

$$

VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/PHOENIX

DISCUSSION...DEWEY
AVIATION...NOLTE
FIRE WEATHER...NOLTE




000
FXUS65 KPSR 311154
AFDPSR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PHOENIX AZ
454 AM MST FRI JUL 31 2015

.UPDATE...TO AVIATION AND FIRE WEATHER DISCUSSION...

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED STORM ACTIVITY IS ANTICIPATED OVER ARIZONA AND
SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA AGAIN TODAY. A NOTABLE DOWNTREND IN MOISTURE
FROM WEST TO EAST IS EXPECTED OVER THE WEEKEND. THIS WILL KEEP STORM
CHANCES LIMITED TO SOUTH- CENTRAL ARIZONA WELL INTO NEXT WEEK.
TEMPERATURES WILL NOT CHANGE MUCH DAY TO DAY REMAINING AT OR ABOVE
SEASONABLE AVERAGE.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
LOOKING AT 00Z SOUNDINGS FROM BOTH TUCSON AND PHOENIX...SOMEWHAT
DRIER COMPARED TO 12Z ON THURSDAY...HOWEVER STILL FAIRLY AVERAGE FOR
THIS TIME OF YEAR FOR PWAT VALUES. AFTER AN ACTIVE EVENING ACROSS
SOUTHEAST ARIZONA AND SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA...PER LATEST IR SATELLITE
IMAGERY A NICE MCS HAS MADE AN APPEARANCE OVER SONORA AND IS TRACKING
WESTWARD BUT STILL DELIVERING A VAST AMOUNT OF CLOUD COVER AND
ISOLATED LIGHTNING THIS SIDE OF THE BORDER. THE STRUGGLE TODAY WILL
BE CLOUD COVER AND IF IT WILL HINDER CONVECTION OPPORTUNITIES INTO
THE CENTRAL DESERTS.

STILL UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF SOUTH-SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW ON THE BACKSIDE
OF THE HIGH...THE SHORTWAVE FEATURE THAT IS PROVIDING THE LIFT AND
DYNAMICS CONTINUES TO MOVE NORTHWARD INTO THE FOUR CORNERS REGION.
PRECIPITABLE WATER READINGS ARE FORECAST TO REACH 1.65-1.7 INCH
THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING...WHICH AGAIN IS ABOUT PAR FOR THE COURSE
THIS TIME OF YEAR. TWO OUT OF THREE KEY INGREDIENTS FOR STORM
INITIATION ARE PRESENT AND THE THIRD REALLY HINGES ON DAYTIME
HEATING. AS WE SAW A FEW DAYS AGO THE CLOUDS PLAY A LARGE PART IN
WHETHER STORMS WILL INITIATE OR NOT. BOUNDARY LAYER AND OUTFLOW
INTERACTION ALWAYS AIDE WITH DEVELOPMENT. LOCAL MESOSCALE CONVECTIVE
MODELS ALLUDE TO CLOUDS CLEARING BY MID MORNING FOR CENTRAL ARIZONA
AS WELL AS ELEVATED INSTABILITY BY MID-DAY /CLOSE TO 800 J/KG OF
CAPE/ WHICH WOULD LATER BE REALIZED WITH DAYTIME HEATING. ALL THIS
SAID...TODAY COULD PLAY OUT EITHER WITH STABLE CONDITIONS PERSISTING
DUE TO NO CLEARING OR MID TO LATE AFTERNOON CONVECTION WILL INITIATE
SOUTHEAST OF PHOENIX AND PROPAGATE NORTHWARD. I AM TENDING TO LEAN ON
THE CLEARING OUT OPTION.

FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE A DRY BOUNDARY LAYER /7-8 G/KG MIXING
RATIO/ WITH SUFFICIENT HEATING CREATING AN INVERTED-V TYPE SOUNDING
WITH WARMER MAX TEMPS THIS AFTERNOON. INSTABILITY IN PLACE AND
CONVECTION DEVELOPING SOUTHEAST OF PHOENIX WITH A SOUTHEASTERLY
FLOW...SIGNS POINT TO BLOWING DUST. ALL HIGH-RES MODELS TEND TO AGREE
ON A RATHER ACTIVE EVENING ACROSS THE LOWER DESERTS. WHILE NOT A
SLAM-DUNK FLOOD SCENARIO...CAN`T RULE OUT LOCALIZED FLOODING...AS
WELL AS GUSTY WINDS WITH THE STRONGER STORMS.

AFTER TODAY DRIER AIR BEGINS TO FILTER IN WITH A SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW
STARTING TO TAKE SHAPE. SATURDAY HAS LESS THAN IDEAL CONDITIONS FOR
MONSOONAL ACTIVITY ACROSS THE LOWER AND CENTRAL DESERTS WITH MORE OF
A CONFLUENT FLOW. MOUNTAIN LOCATIONS OF EASTERN ARIZONA WILL STILL
SEE A SLIGHT OR BETTER CHANCE FOR AFTERNOON AND EVENING CONVECTION
FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS...GRADUALLY TRENDING DOWNWARD. SLIGHT
WARMING WILL ALSO TAKE PLACE WITH TEMPERATURES RANGING 102 TO 108
EACH DAY.

&&

.AVIATION...
SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA INCLUDING KPHX...KIWA...AND KSDL...
BKN-OVC MID AND HIGH LEVEL CIGS WILL CONTINUE TO DRIFT ACROSS THE
AREA THIS AM FROM DECAYING STORM COMPLEXES SOUTH OF THE BORDER AND
ACROSS SE AZ. HOW FAST AND TO WHAT EXTENT THESE CLEAR TODAY WILL
EITHER HELP OR HURT THE PHX METRO IN TERMS OF STORM CHANCES
IMPACTING THE TERMINALS LATER INTO THE EVENING. GNLY LIGHT AM SFC
WINDS NOTED AT SITES AROUND THE METRO WITH SUBTLE WEST FLOW VIA TPHX
AND KIWA VELOCITIES...SO ELECTED TO GO WITH VRB IN FOR PHX. SPEEDS
SHOULD BE LIGHT AND MANAGEABLE UNTIL MORE PROMINENT WESTERLY FLOW
SETTLES INTO THE AREA AFTER MIDDAY.

IF SKIES CLEAR AND WE ARE ABLE TO DECENTLY WARM THE DESERTS...STORMS
ARE FCST TO BEGIN FIRING OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN AND FOOTHILLS EAST
AND SOUTH OF PHOENIX. STORM INITIATION AND/OR SURVIVAL INTO THE PHX
METRO WILL LIKELY DEPEND ON STORM OUTFLOWS AND THEIR INTERACTION.
FOLLOWING HOW CONDITIONS HAVE MATERIALIZED SO FAR THIS
SUMMER...THESE OUTFLOW PASSAGES TEND BE POST 00Z...SO DID INCLUDE
VCTS MENTION 01/02Z FOR KSDL AND KIWA AND 01/04Z FOR KPHX.
CONFIDENCE IS MODERATE ON STORM DEVELOPMENT THIS EVENING...HOPING
THAT DAYTIME CLOUD COVER CLEARS ENOUGH TO NOT DAMPEN/SHUT DOWN STORM
CHANCES LATER INTO THE EVENING.


SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA AND SOUTHWEST ARIZONA INCLUDING KIPL AND
KBLH...
SCT-BKN MID LEVEL CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO STREAM OVER THE TERMINALS
FROM THE SOUTH THROUGH THE AM...OTHERWISE SKIES WILL MAINTAIN FEW-
SCT CLOUD COVERAGE. WEST WINDS TO HOLD MOSTLY FOR KIPL THROUGHOUT
THE DAY WHILE SOUTHERLY HEADINGS ARE IN STORE FOR KBLH. SLIGHT
CHANCE FOR ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT INTO THE AFTN ALONG THE
CO RIVER VALLEY...SO AT LEAST VCSH MENTION IS BACK IN THE KBLH TAF
FOR THE AFTN/EVENING HOURS.

AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDED TAFS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...
MONSOONAL MOISTURE WILL SLOWLY BEGIN TO THIN ACROSS THE AREA...FIRST
ACROSS THE WESTERN FIRE DISTRICTS AND EVENTUALLY INTO THE ENTIRE
LOWER DESERT ELEVATIONS AND REGION BY EARLY NEXT WEEK. THIS WILL
RELEGATE STORM CHANCES BACK TOWARDS THE HIGHER TERRAIN AND FURTHER
TO THE EAST ACROSS AZ. MINIMUM RH VALUES WILL BEGIN TO SETTLE INTO
THE TEENS WHILE MAKING MOSTLY MODEST TO FAIR OVERNIGHT RECOVERIES.
THE SLIGHTLY DRIER AIRMASS AND BUILDING UPPER RIDGE HEIGHTS WILL
LEND THEMSELVES TOWARD WARMER SFC CONDITIONS...AT OR ABOVE SEASONAL
NORMALS. WINDS WILL FOLLOW FAMILIAR WARM SEASON PATTERNS. BY MIDWEEK
A SUBTLE RETURN OF GULF MOISTURE MAY BOOST AREA HUMIDITIES...BUT NOT
LINGER MUCH THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT CONDITIONS ACCORDING TO STANDARD
OPERATING PROCEDURES.

&&

.PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AZ...NONE.
CA...NONE.
&&

$$

VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/PHOENIX

DISCUSSION...DEWEY
AVIATION...NOLTE
FIRE WEATHER...NOLTE




000
FXUS65 KFGZ 311052
AFDFGZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ
352 AM MST FRI JUL 31 2015

.SYNOPSIS...DEEP MOISTURE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE TODAY AND SATURDAY.
STORM COVERAGE WILL LIKELY PEAK EACH AFTERNOON BEFORE DIMINISHING
AFTER SUNSET. EXPECT LESSER ACTIVITY FOR SUNDAY AND EARLY NEXT
WEEK...ESPECIALLY ACROSS WESTERN ARIZONA.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
MOIST MONSOONAL FLOW WILL REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS NORTHERN ARIZONA
TODAY AND SATURDAY...WITH STORM COVERAGE FORECAST TO BE SLIGHTLY
ABOVE CLIMATOLOGY.

FROM SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...SOMEWHAT DRIER SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL
SHIFT THE GREATEST CHANCES FOR PRECIP TO NAVAJO AND APACHE
COUNTIES...THOUGH WE WILL KEEP SLIGHT CHANCES TO THE WEST.
DAILY MAX/MIN TEMPS TO REMAIN NEAR SEASONAL NORMS THRU THE 7-DAY
FORECAST WITH GENERALLY LIGHT WINDS (EXCEPT NEAR THUNDERSTORMS)
ANTICIPATED.

&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 12Z PACKAGE...SCATTERED -SHRA THIS MORNING
MAINLY FROM KFLG NORTH TO THE UT BORDER. SCATTERED SHRA/TSRA
DEVELOPING THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH EVENING. THE GREATEST IMPACTS TO
AVIATION WILL BE LOCAL MVFR/IFR IN HEAVY RAIN. AVIATION DISCUSSION
NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDMENTS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...AN ACTIVE MONSOON PATTERN WILL CONTINUE ACROSS
NORTHERN ARIZONA TODAY THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEKEND. EXPECT
SCATTERED AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. THE
GREATEST STORM HAZARDS WILL BE LIGHTNING AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN.

SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...A DRIER SOUTHWEST FLOW DEVELOPS OVER THE
REGION ON SUNDAY WHICH WILL BEGIN TO DECREASE MONSOON MOISTURE
FROM WEST TO EAST THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. EXPECT A DOWNTURN IN
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY THROUGH THIS PERIOD.

&&

.FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC...KD
AVIATION...MCS
FIRE WEATHER...MCS

FOR NORTHERN ARIZONA WEATHER INFORMATION VISIT
WEATHER.GOV/FLAGSTAFF




000
FXUS65 KFGZ 311052
AFDFGZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ
352 AM MST FRI JUL 31 2015

.SYNOPSIS...DEEP MOISTURE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE TODAY AND SATURDAY.
STORM COVERAGE WILL LIKELY PEAK EACH AFTERNOON BEFORE DIMINISHING
AFTER SUNSET. EXPECT LESSER ACTIVITY FOR SUNDAY AND EARLY NEXT
WEEK...ESPECIALLY ACROSS WESTERN ARIZONA.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
MOIST MONSOONAL FLOW WILL REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS NORTHERN ARIZONA
TODAY AND SATURDAY...WITH STORM COVERAGE FORECAST TO BE SLIGHTLY
ABOVE CLIMATOLOGY.

FROM SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...SOMEWHAT DRIER SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL
SHIFT THE GREATEST CHANCES FOR PRECIP TO NAVAJO AND APACHE
COUNTIES...THOUGH WE WILL KEEP SLIGHT CHANCES TO THE WEST.
DAILY MAX/MIN TEMPS TO REMAIN NEAR SEASONAL NORMS THRU THE 7-DAY
FORECAST WITH GENERALLY LIGHT WINDS (EXCEPT NEAR THUNDERSTORMS)
ANTICIPATED.

&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 12Z PACKAGE...SCATTERED -SHRA THIS MORNING
MAINLY FROM KFLG NORTH TO THE UT BORDER. SCATTERED SHRA/TSRA
DEVELOPING THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH EVENING. THE GREATEST IMPACTS TO
AVIATION WILL BE LOCAL MVFR/IFR IN HEAVY RAIN. AVIATION DISCUSSION
NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDMENTS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...AN ACTIVE MONSOON PATTERN WILL CONTINUE ACROSS
NORTHERN ARIZONA TODAY THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEKEND. EXPECT
SCATTERED AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. THE
GREATEST STORM HAZARDS WILL BE LIGHTNING AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN.

SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...A DRIER SOUTHWEST FLOW DEVELOPS OVER THE
REGION ON SUNDAY WHICH WILL BEGIN TO DECREASE MONSOON MOISTURE
FROM WEST TO EAST THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. EXPECT A DOWNTURN IN
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY THROUGH THIS PERIOD.

&&

.FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC...KD
AVIATION...MCS
FIRE WEATHER...MCS

FOR NORTHERN ARIZONA WEATHER INFORMATION VISIT
WEATHER.GOV/FLAGSTAFF



000
FXUS65 KPSR 311034
AFDPSR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PHOENIX AZ
334 AM MST FRI JUL 31 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED STORM ACTIVITY IS ANTICIPATED OVER ARIZONA AND
SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA AGAIN TODAY. A NOTABLE DOWNTREND IN MOISTURE
FROM WEST TO EAST IS EXPECTED OVER THE WEEKEND. THIS WILL KEEP STORM
CHANCES LIMITED TO SOUTH- CENTRAL ARIZONA WELL INTO NEXT WEEK.
TEMPERATURES WILL NOT CHANGE MUCH DAY TO DAY REMAINING AT OR ABOVE
SEASONABLE AVERAGE.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
LOOKING AT 00Z SOUNDINGS FROM BOTH TUCSON AND PHOENIX...SOMEWHAT
DRIER COMPARED TO 12Z ON THURSDAY...HOWEVER STILL FAIRLY AVERAGE FOR
THIS TIME OF YEAR FOR PWAT VALUES. AFTER AN ACTIVE EVENING ACROSS
SOUTHEAST ARIZONA AND SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA...PER LATEST IR SATELLITE
IMAGERY A NICE MCS HAS MADE AN APPEARANCE OVER SONORA AND IS TRACKING
WESTWARD BUT STILL DELIVERING A VAST AMOUNT OF CLOUD COVER AND
ISOLATED LIGHTNING THIS SIDE OF THE BORDER. THE STRUGGLE TODAY WILL
BE CLOUD COVER AND IF IT WILL HINDER CONVECTION OPPORTUNITIES INTO
THE CENTRAL DESERTS.

STILL UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF SOUTH-SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW ON THE BACKSIDE
OF THE HIGH...THE SHORTWAVE FEATURE THAT IS PROVIDING THE LIFT AND
DYNAMICS CONTINUES TO MOVE NORTHWARD INTO THE FOUR CORNERS REGION.
PRECIPITABLE WATER READINGS ARE FORECAST TO REACH 1.65-1.7 INCH
THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING...WHICH AGAIN IS ABOUT PAR FOR THE COURSE
THIS TIME OF YEAR. TWO OUT OF THREE KEY INGREDIENTS FOR STORM
INITIATION ARE PRESENT AND THE THIRD REALLY HINGES ON DAYTIME
HEATING. AS WE SAW A FEW DAYS AGO THE CLOUDS PLAY A LARGE PART IN
WHETHER STORMS WILL INITIATE OR NOT. BOUNDARY LAYER AND OUTFLOW
INTERACTION ALWAYS AIDE WITH DEVELOPMENT. LOCAL MESOSCALE CONVECTIVE
MODELS ALLUDE TO CLOUDS CLEARING BY MID MORNING FOR CENTRAL ARIZONA
AS WELL AS ELEVATED INSTABILITY BY MID-DAY /CLOSE TO 800 J/KG OF
CAPE/ WHICH WOULD LATER BE REALIZED WITH DAYTIME HEATING. ALL THIS
SAID...TODAY COULD PLAY OUT EITHER WITH STABLE CONDITIONS PERSISTING
DUE TO NO CLEARING OR MID TO LATE AFTERNOON CONVECTION WILL INITIATE
SOUTHEAST OF PHOENIX AND PROPAGATE NORTHWARD. I AM TENDING TO LEAN ON
THE CLEARING OUT OPTION.

FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE A DRY BOUNDARY LAYER /7-8 G/KG MIXING
RATIO/ WITH SUFFICIENT HEATING CREATING AN INVERTED-V TYPE SOUNDING
WITH WARMER MAX TEMPS THIS AFTERNOON. INSTABILITY IN PLACE AND
CONVECTION DEVELOPING SOUTHEAST OF PHOENIX WITH A SOUTHEASTERLY
FLOW...SIGNS POINT TO BLOWING DUST. ALL HIGH-RES MODELS TEND TO AGREE
ON A RATHER ACTIVE EVENING ACROSS THE LOWER DESERTS. WHILE NOT A
SLAM-DUNK FLOOD SCENARIO...CAN`T RULE OUT LOCALIZED FLOODING...AS
WELL AS GUSTY WINDS WITH THE STRONGER STORMS.

AFTER TODAY DRIER AIR BEGINS TO FILTER IN WITH A SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW
STARTING TO TAKE SHAPE. SATURDAY HAS LESS THAN IDEAL CONDITIONS FOR
MONSOONAL ACTIVITY ACROSS THE LOWER AND CENTRAL DESERTS WITH MORE OF
A CONFLUENT FLOW. MOUNTAIN LOCATIONS OF EASTERN ARIZONA WILL STILL
SEE A SLIGHT OR BETTER CHANCE FOR AFTERNOON AND EVENING CONVECTION
FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS...GRADUALLY TRENDING DOWNWARD. SLIGHT
WARMING WILL ALSO TAKE PLACE WITH TEMPERATURES RANGING 102 TO 108
EACH DAY.

&&

.AVIATION...
SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA INCLUDING KPHX...KIWA...AND
KSDL...

CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE REST OF THE NIGHTTIME HOURS IS
MINIMAL...NOT ZERO...BUT NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO MENTION ANY WEATHER OR
EVEN VCSH IN THE TAFS. WILL GO WITH FEW-SCT HIGH BASED CU AROUND 10K
AND SCT-BKN CIRRUS DECKS. WE ARE ONLY LOOKING AT SLIGHT CHANCES FOR
STORMS FRIDAY EVENING SO DO NOT EXPECT ANY WEATHER TO BE ADDED TO
THE TAFS FOR AT LEAST THE NEXT 18 HOURS. WINDS WILL BE ON THE LIGHT
SIDE AND FOLLOW NORMAL DIURNAL CONVECTIONS.

SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA AND SOUTHWEST ARIZONA INCLUDING KIPL AND
KBLH...

IT APPEARS THE THREAT FOR SHOWERS/STORMS OR EVEN STRONG OUTFLOWS IS
PRETTY MUCH OVER FOR THE REST OF TONIGHT...SO WE ARE LEFT WITH
MAINLY FEW-SCT MID AND UPPER LEVEL DEBRIS CLOUD DECKS THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON ON FRIDAY. WINDS WILL BE ON THE LIGHT SIDE THROUGH THE TAF
PERIOD....FAVORING THE SOUTH AT KBLH AND THE SOUTHEAST AT KIPL.

AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDED TAFS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...
MONSOONAL MOISTURE WILL SLOWLY BEGIN TO THIN ACROSS THE AREA...FIRST
ACROSS THE WESTERN FIRE DISTRICTS AND EVENTUALLY INTO THE ENTIRE
LOWER DESERT ELEVATIONS AND REGION BY EARLY NEXT WEEK. THIS WILL
RELEGATE STORM CHANCES BACK TOWARDS THE HIGHER TERRAIN AND FURTHER
TO THE EAST ACROSS AZ. THE SLIGHTLY DRIER AIRMASS AND BUILDING UPPER
RIDGE HEIGHTS WILL LEND THEMSELVES TOWARD WARMER SFC CONDITIONS...AT
OR ABOVE SEASONAL NORMALS. WINDS WILL FOLLOW FAMILIAR WARM SEASON
PATTERNS.

&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT CONDITIONS ACCORDING TO STANDARD
OPERATING PROCEDURES.

&&

.PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AZ...NONE.
CA...NONE.
&&

$$

VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/PHOENIX

DISCUSSION...DEWEY
AVIATION...CB
FIRE WEATHER...NOLTE



000
FXUS65 KPSR 311034
AFDPSR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PHOENIX AZ
334 AM MST FRI JUL 31 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED STORM ACTIVITY IS ANTICIPATED OVER ARIZONA AND
SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA AGAIN TODAY. A NOTABLE DOWNTREND IN MOISTURE
FROM WEST TO EAST IS EXPECTED OVER THE WEEKEND. THIS WILL KEEP STORM
CHANCES LIMITED TO SOUTH- CENTRAL ARIZONA WELL INTO NEXT WEEK.
TEMPERATURES WILL NOT CHANGE MUCH DAY TO DAY REMAINING AT OR ABOVE
SEASONABLE AVERAGE.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
LOOKING AT 00Z SOUNDINGS FROM BOTH TUCSON AND PHOENIX...SOMEWHAT
DRIER COMPARED TO 12Z ON THURSDAY...HOWEVER STILL FAIRLY AVERAGE FOR
THIS TIME OF YEAR FOR PWAT VALUES. AFTER AN ACTIVE EVENING ACROSS
SOUTHEAST ARIZONA AND SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA...PER LATEST IR SATELLITE
IMAGERY A NICE MCS HAS MADE AN APPEARANCE OVER SONORA AND IS TRACKING
WESTWARD BUT STILL DELIVERING A VAST AMOUNT OF CLOUD COVER AND
ISOLATED LIGHTNING THIS SIDE OF THE BORDER. THE STRUGGLE TODAY WILL
BE CLOUD COVER AND IF IT WILL HINDER CONVECTION OPPORTUNITIES INTO
THE CENTRAL DESERTS.

STILL UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF SOUTH-SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW ON THE BACKSIDE
OF THE HIGH...THE SHORTWAVE FEATURE THAT IS PROVIDING THE LIFT AND
DYNAMICS CONTINUES TO MOVE NORTHWARD INTO THE FOUR CORNERS REGION.
PRECIPITABLE WATER READINGS ARE FORECAST TO REACH 1.65-1.7 INCH
THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING...WHICH AGAIN IS ABOUT PAR FOR THE COURSE
THIS TIME OF YEAR. TWO OUT OF THREE KEY INGREDIENTS FOR STORM
INITIATION ARE PRESENT AND THE THIRD REALLY HINGES ON DAYTIME
HEATING. AS WE SAW A FEW DAYS AGO THE CLOUDS PLAY A LARGE PART IN
WHETHER STORMS WILL INITIATE OR NOT. BOUNDARY LAYER AND OUTFLOW
INTERACTION ALWAYS AIDE WITH DEVELOPMENT. LOCAL MESOSCALE CONVECTIVE
MODELS ALLUDE TO CLOUDS CLEARING BY MID MORNING FOR CENTRAL ARIZONA
AS WELL AS ELEVATED INSTABILITY BY MID-DAY /CLOSE TO 800 J/KG OF
CAPE/ WHICH WOULD LATER BE REALIZED WITH DAYTIME HEATING. ALL THIS
SAID...TODAY COULD PLAY OUT EITHER WITH STABLE CONDITIONS PERSISTING
DUE TO NO CLEARING OR MID TO LATE AFTERNOON CONVECTION WILL INITIATE
SOUTHEAST OF PHOENIX AND PROPAGATE NORTHWARD. I AM TENDING TO LEAN ON
THE CLEARING OUT OPTION.

FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE A DRY BOUNDARY LAYER /7-8 G/KG MIXING
RATIO/ WITH SUFFICIENT HEATING CREATING AN INVERTED-V TYPE SOUNDING
WITH WARMER MAX TEMPS THIS AFTERNOON. INSTABILITY IN PLACE AND
CONVECTION DEVELOPING SOUTHEAST OF PHOENIX WITH A SOUTHEASTERLY
FLOW...SIGNS POINT TO BLOWING DUST. ALL HIGH-RES MODELS TEND TO AGREE
ON A RATHER ACTIVE EVENING ACROSS THE LOWER DESERTS. WHILE NOT A
SLAM-DUNK FLOOD SCENARIO...CAN`T RULE OUT LOCALIZED FLOODING...AS
WELL AS GUSTY WINDS WITH THE STRONGER STORMS.

AFTER TODAY DRIER AIR BEGINS TO FILTER IN WITH A SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW
STARTING TO TAKE SHAPE. SATURDAY HAS LESS THAN IDEAL CONDITIONS FOR
MONSOONAL ACTIVITY ACROSS THE LOWER AND CENTRAL DESERTS WITH MORE OF
A CONFLUENT FLOW. MOUNTAIN LOCATIONS OF EASTERN ARIZONA WILL STILL
SEE A SLIGHT OR BETTER CHANCE FOR AFTERNOON AND EVENING CONVECTION
FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS...GRADUALLY TRENDING DOWNWARD. SLIGHT
WARMING WILL ALSO TAKE PLACE WITH TEMPERATURES RANGING 102 TO 108
EACH DAY.

&&

.AVIATION...
SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA INCLUDING KPHX...KIWA...AND
KSDL...

CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE REST OF THE NIGHTTIME HOURS IS
MINIMAL...NOT ZERO...BUT NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO MENTION ANY WEATHER OR
EVEN VCSH IN THE TAFS. WILL GO WITH FEW-SCT HIGH BASED CU AROUND 10K
AND SCT-BKN CIRRUS DECKS. WE ARE ONLY LOOKING AT SLIGHT CHANCES FOR
STORMS FRIDAY EVENING SO DO NOT EXPECT ANY WEATHER TO BE ADDED TO
THE TAFS FOR AT LEAST THE NEXT 18 HOURS. WINDS WILL BE ON THE LIGHT
SIDE AND FOLLOW NORMAL DIURNAL CONVECTIONS.

SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA AND SOUTHWEST ARIZONA INCLUDING KIPL AND
KBLH...

IT APPEARS THE THREAT FOR SHOWERS/STORMS OR EVEN STRONG OUTFLOWS IS
PRETTY MUCH OVER FOR THE REST OF TONIGHT...SO WE ARE LEFT WITH
MAINLY FEW-SCT MID AND UPPER LEVEL DEBRIS CLOUD DECKS THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON ON FRIDAY. WINDS WILL BE ON THE LIGHT SIDE THROUGH THE TAF
PERIOD....FAVORING THE SOUTH AT KBLH AND THE SOUTHEAST AT KIPL.

AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDED TAFS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...
MONSOONAL MOISTURE WILL SLOWLY BEGIN TO THIN ACROSS THE AREA...FIRST
ACROSS THE WESTERN FIRE DISTRICTS AND EVENTUALLY INTO THE ENTIRE
LOWER DESERT ELEVATIONS AND REGION BY EARLY NEXT WEEK. THIS WILL
RELEGATE STORM CHANCES BACK TOWARDS THE HIGHER TERRAIN AND FURTHER
TO THE EAST ACROSS AZ. THE SLIGHTLY DRIER AIRMASS AND BUILDING UPPER
RIDGE HEIGHTS WILL LEND THEMSELVES TOWARD WARMER SFC CONDITIONS...AT
OR ABOVE SEASONAL NORMALS. WINDS WILL FOLLOW FAMILIAR WARM SEASON
PATTERNS.

&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT CONDITIONS ACCORDING TO STANDARD
OPERATING PROCEDURES.

&&

.PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AZ...NONE.
CA...NONE.
&&

$$

VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/PHOENIX

DISCUSSION...DEWEY
AVIATION...CB
FIRE WEATHER...NOLTE




000
FXUS65 KTWC 311010
AFDTWC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ
310 AM MST FRI JUL 31 2015

.SYNOPSIS...A MORE ACTIVE THUNDERSTORM DAY ACROSS SOUTHEAST ARIZONA
TODAY. ALTHOUGH SOME DRIER AIR WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA THIS
WEEKEND INTO NEXT WEEK...THERE WILL BE ENOUGH MOISTURE AROUND FOR A
CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.DISCUSSION...A FEW STORMS POPPED UP AFTER MIDNIGHT...ESPECIALLY
ACROSS WRN COCHISE/SW SANTA CRUZ COUNTIES. OTHERWISE DEBRIS CLOUDS
EXIST OVER THE AREA THIS MORNING WITH A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS CONTINUING
UNTIL SUNRISE. 00Z UPPER AIR PLOTS SHOWED UPPER HIGH OVER W TEXAS
WITH AN UPPER LEVEL TROF OFF CA COAST. THIS PLACED ARIZONA UNDER S-
SW FLOW ALOFT. AFTER A DOWN THURSDAY...TODAY IS SHAPING UP TO BE AN
ACTIVE ONE WITH THE WHITE MOUNTAINS AND THE LOWER DESERTS FROM
TUCSON WEST SEEING THE BEST CHANCES OF STORMS THIS AFTERNOON INTO
THIS EVENING. THE LOWER DESERT STORMS WILL BE ENHANCED BY A
DISTURBANCE CAUGHT IN THE S-SE FLOW ALOFT. WITH PW VALUES IN THE
1.2" TO 1.6" RANGE...HIGHEST WEST...WET MICROBURSTS ARE A CONCERN.
THE ONLY FLY IN THE OINTMENT WILL BE AMOUNT OF CLOUD COVER THAT WILL
CUT INTO VALLEY CAPE. RAISED POPS WEST OF TUCSON LATER TODAY AND
ALSO...PER COORD WITH WFO PHX...THRU IN BLOWING DUST WORDING FROM
TUCSON W-NW. HIGHS TODAY WILL BE AT OR SLIGHTLY COOLER THAN
THURSDAY.

SATURDAY FORECAST HIGHLY DEPENDENT ON WHAT HAPPENS TODAY AND WITH
THE FORECAST FOR AN UP DAY TODAY...WENT WITH LOWER POPS AS SOME
DRIER AIR STARTS TO FILTER IN AS FLOW ALOFT STARTS TO TURN OUT OF
THE SW.

SUNDAY...INCREASING SW FLOW ALOFT WILL PUSH DEEPER MOISTURE TO THE
EAST LIMITING THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE TO AREAS EAST AND SOUTH OF
TUCSON.

NEXT WEEK...STANDARD LOW GRADE MONSOON FORECAST.

&&

.AVIATION...VALID THRU 31/12Z.
ISOLD -SHRA/TS MAINLY S OF KTUS THRU 31/15Z. OTRW DECREASING CLOUDS
THRU 31/18Z. SCTD SHRA/TSRA DEVELOPING AFT 31/20Z. BRIEF WIND GUSTS
BTWN 35-45 KTS POSSIBLE IN AND AROUND THE STRONGER TSRA. AREAS OF
BLDU PSBL W AND NW OF KTUS AFT 31/22Z, OUTSIDE OF STORM INFLUENCES
SFC WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE LESS THAN 12 KTS WITH A FEW HIGHER GUSTS
IN THE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING HOURS. AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT
UPDATED FOR TAF AMENDMENTS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TODAY WITH
STRONG OUTFLOW WINDS LIKELY...ESPECIALLY FROM TUCSON WEST. WITH THE
POTENTIAL FOR TODAY TO BE AN ACTIVE DAY...SATURDAY MAY SEE LIMITED
ACTIVITY. INCREASING SW WINDS ALOFT ON SUNDAY WILL BRING DRIER AIR
INTO THE REGION FOR ISOLATED TO LOW SCATTERED THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE.
LOW GRADE MONSOON ACTIVITY NEXT WEEK...MAINLY SOUTH AND EAST OF
TUCSON. STRONG OUTFLOW WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE NEAR THUNDERSTORMS.
OTHERWISE...20-FT WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE TERRAIN DRIVEN AND LESS
THAN 15 MPH...WITH SOME AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING BREEZINESS DUE
TO THE STRONG DAYTIME HEATING.

&&

.TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...YOUTUBE...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/TUCSON



000
FXUS65 KFGZ 310743
AFDFGZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ
904 PM MST THU JUL 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DIMINISHED THIS
EVENING ACROSS NORTHERN ARIZONA. DEEP MOISTURE WILL REMAIN IN
PLACE WITH A WET MONSOON PATTERN FORECAST TO CONTINUE THROUGH
SATURDAY. EXPECT INCREASING STORM COVERAGE EACH AFTERNOON WITH
ACTIVITY DIMINISHING AFTER SUNSET.

&&

.DISCUSSION...THE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THAT
DEVELOPED TODAY ACROSS THE REGION HAVE DIMINISHED THIS EVENING. A
WET MONSOON PATTERN WILL RETURN EACH AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY.
THE STRONGEST WEATHER THREATS OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS WILL COME FROM
LIGHTNING AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN NEAR THUNDERSTORMS.

THE EVENING FORECAST GRIDS LOOK GOOD. NO EVENING UPDATES NEEDED.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION /336 PM MST/...VERY MOIST CONDITIONS ACROSS
NORTHERN ARIZONA THIS AFTERNOON WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. CLOUD COVER DELAYED CONVECTION OVER AREAS NORTH OF
INTERSTATE 40 UNTIL THIS AFTERNOON. A WEAK LOW PRESSURE CENTER
OVER NORTHERN ARIZONA THIS AFTERNOON IS CAUSING STORMS WEST OF
I-17 AND NORTH OF I-40 TO MOVE GENERALLY WEST. STORMS SOUTHEAST OF
FLAGSTAFF ARE GENERALLY MOVING NORTH. STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO LAST
WELL INTO THE EVENING THEN DECREASE AFTER DARK.

THE MOIST MONSOONAL FLOW WILL REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS NORTHERN
ARIZONA THROUGH SATURDAY....AND PRECIP CHANCES ARE ABOVE
CLIMATOLOGY.

FROM SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...MODELS ARE SHOWING DRIER SOUTHWEST
FLOW TO RETURN TO WESTERN ARIZONA ON SUNDAY...PUSHING THE MONSOON
PLUME EASTWARD. BY MONDAY...MOST OF THE MOISTURE WILL BE EAST OF
I-17 TO PAGE. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED STORM ACTIVITY TO CONTINUE
ACROSS NAVAJO AND APACHE COUNTIES THOUGH WEDNESDAY.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...SCATTERED AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWERS AND STORMS
ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH SATURDAY. LIGHTNING...LOCALLY HEAVY
RAIN...AND SMALL HAIL ARE THE PRIMARY EXPECTED HAZARDS.

.SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...THE MONSOON WEATHER PATTERN IS EXPECTED
TO PERSIST THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH DAILY THUNDERSTORM CHANCES
CONTINUING.  THERE IS A POSSIBILITY OF A DOWNTURN IN STORM ACTIVITY
EARLY NEXT WEEK ACROSS WESTERN ARIZONA AS DRIER AIR MOVES IN FROM
THE WEST.

&&

.AVIATION...ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EACH
DAY ACROSS NORTHERN ARIZONA. LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN WITH MVFR/IFR
POSSIBLE NEAR THUNDERSTORMS. THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL DIMINISH
AFTER 03Z FRIDAY.

&&

.FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC.........BOHLIN/MAS
FIRE WEATHER...MAS
AVIATION.......BOHLIN

FOR NORTHERN ARIZONA WEATHER INFORMATION VISIT
WEATHER.GOV/FLAGSTAFF



000
FXUS65 KFGZ 310743
AFDFGZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ
904 PM MST THU JUL 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DIMINISHED THIS
EVENING ACROSS NORTHERN ARIZONA. DEEP MOISTURE WILL REMAIN IN
PLACE WITH A WET MONSOON PATTERN FORECAST TO CONTINUE THROUGH
SATURDAY. EXPECT INCREASING STORM COVERAGE EACH AFTERNOON WITH
ACTIVITY DIMINISHING AFTER SUNSET.

&&

.DISCUSSION...THE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THAT
DEVELOPED TODAY ACROSS THE REGION HAVE DIMINISHED THIS EVENING. A
WET MONSOON PATTERN WILL RETURN EACH AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY.
THE STRONGEST WEATHER THREATS OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS WILL COME FROM
LIGHTNING AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN NEAR THUNDERSTORMS.

THE EVENING FORECAST GRIDS LOOK GOOD. NO EVENING UPDATES NEEDED.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION /336 PM MST/...VERY MOIST CONDITIONS ACROSS
NORTHERN ARIZONA THIS AFTERNOON WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. CLOUD COVER DELAYED CONVECTION OVER AREAS NORTH OF
INTERSTATE 40 UNTIL THIS AFTERNOON. A WEAK LOW PRESSURE CENTER
OVER NORTHERN ARIZONA THIS AFTERNOON IS CAUSING STORMS WEST OF
I-17 AND NORTH OF I-40 TO MOVE GENERALLY WEST. STORMS SOUTHEAST OF
FLAGSTAFF ARE GENERALLY MOVING NORTH. STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO LAST
WELL INTO THE EVENING THEN DECREASE AFTER DARK.

THE MOIST MONSOONAL FLOW WILL REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS NORTHERN
ARIZONA THROUGH SATURDAY....AND PRECIP CHANCES ARE ABOVE
CLIMATOLOGY.

FROM SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...MODELS ARE SHOWING DRIER SOUTHWEST
FLOW TO RETURN TO WESTERN ARIZONA ON SUNDAY...PUSHING THE MONSOON
PLUME EASTWARD. BY MONDAY...MOST OF THE MOISTURE WILL BE EAST OF
I-17 TO PAGE. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED STORM ACTIVITY TO CONTINUE
ACROSS NAVAJO AND APACHE COUNTIES THOUGH WEDNESDAY.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...SCATTERED AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWERS AND STORMS
ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH SATURDAY. LIGHTNING...LOCALLY HEAVY
RAIN...AND SMALL HAIL ARE THE PRIMARY EXPECTED HAZARDS.

.SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...THE MONSOON WEATHER PATTERN IS EXPECTED
TO PERSIST THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH DAILY THUNDERSTORM CHANCES
CONTINUING.  THERE IS A POSSIBILITY OF A DOWNTURN IN STORM ACTIVITY
EARLY NEXT WEEK ACROSS WESTERN ARIZONA AS DRIER AIR MOVES IN FROM
THE WEST.

&&

.AVIATION...ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EACH
DAY ACROSS NORTHERN ARIZONA. LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN WITH MVFR/IFR
POSSIBLE NEAR THUNDERSTORMS. THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL DIMINISH
AFTER 03Z FRIDAY.

&&

.FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC.........BOHLIN/MAS
FIRE WEATHER...MAS
AVIATION.......BOHLIN

FOR NORTHERN ARIZONA WEATHER INFORMATION VISIT
WEATHER.GOV/FLAGSTAFF



000
FXUS65 KFGZ 310743
AFDFGZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ
904 PM MST THU JUL 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DIMINISHED THIS
EVENING ACROSS NORTHERN ARIZONA. DEEP MOISTURE WILL REMAIN IN
PLACE WITH A WET MONSOON PATTERN FORECAST TO CONTINUE THROUGH
SATURDAY. EXPECT INCREASING STORM COVERAGE EACH AFTERNOON WITH
ACTIVITY DIMINISHING AFTER SUNSET.

&&

.DISCUSSION...THE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THAT
DEVELOPED TODAY ACROSS THE REGION HAVE DIMINISHED THIS EVENING. A
WET MONSOON PATTERN WILL RETURN EACH AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY.
THE STRONGEST WEATHER THREATS OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS WILL COME FROM
LIGHTNING AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN NEAR THUNDERSTORMS.

THE EVENING FORECAST GRIDS LOOK GOOD. NO EVENING UPDATES NEEDED.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION /336 PM MST/...VERY MOIST CONDITIONS ACROSS
NORTHERN ARIZONA THIS AFTERNOON WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. CLOUD COVER DELAYED CONVECTION OVER AREAS NORTH OF
INTERSTATE 40 UNTIL THIS AFTERNOON. A WEAK LOW PRESSURE CENTER
OVER NORTHERN ARIZONA THIS AFTERNOON IS CAUSING STORMS WEST OF
I-17 AND NORTH OF I-40 TO MOVE GENERALLY WEST. STORMS SOUTHEAST OF
FLAGSTAFF ARE GENERALLY MOVING NORTH. STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO LAST
WELL INTO THE EVENING THEN DECREASE AFTER DARK.

THE MOIST MONSOONAL FLOW WILL REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS NORTHERN
ARIZONA THROUGH SATURDAY....AND PRECIP CHANCES ARE ABOVE
CLIMATOLOGY.

FROM SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...MODELS ARE SHOWING DRIER SOUTHWEST
FLOW TO RETURN TO WESTERN ARIZONA ON SUNDAY...PUSHING THE MONSOON
PLUME EASTWARD. BY MONDAY...MOST OF THE MOISTURE WILL BE EAST OF
I-17 TO PAGE. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED STORM ACTIVITY TO CONTINUE
ACROSS NAVAJO AND APACHE COUNTIES THOUGH WEDNESDAY.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...SCATTERED AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWERS AND STORMS
ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH SATURDAY. LIGHTNING...LOCALLY HEAVY
RAIN...AND SMALL HAIL ARE THE PRIMARY EXPECTED HAZARDS.

.SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...THE MONSOON WEATHER PATTERN IS EXPECTED
TO PERSIST THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH DAILY THUNDERSTORM CHANCES
CONTINUING.  THERE IS A POSSIBILITY OF A DOWNTURN IN STORM ACTIVITY
EARLY NEXT WEEK ACROSS WESTERN ARIZONA AS DRIER AIR MOVES IN FROM
THE WEST.

&&

.AVIATION...ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EACH
DAY ACROSS NORTHERN ARIZONA. LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN WITH MVFR/IFR
POSSIBLE NEAR THUNDERSTORMS. THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL DIMINISH
AFTER 03Z FRIDAY.

&&

.FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC.........BOHLIN/MAS
FIRE WEATHER...MAS
AVIATION.......BOHLIN

FOR NORTHERN ARIZONA WEATHER INFORMATION VISIT
WEATHER.GOV/FLAGSTAFF



000
FXUS65 KFGZ 310743
AFDFGZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ
904 PM MST THU JUL 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DIMINISHED THIS
EVENING ACROSS NORTHERN ARIZONA. DEEP MOISTURE WILL REMAIN IN
PLACE WITH A WET MONSOON PATTERN FORECAST TO CONTINUE THROUGH
SATURDAY. EXPECT INCREASING STORM COVERAGE EACH AFTERNOON WITH
ACTIVITY DIMINISHING AFTER SUNSET.

&&

.DISCUSSION...THE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THAT
DEVELOPED TODAY ACROSS THE REGION HAVE DIMINISHED THIS EVENING. A
WET MONSOON PATTERN WILL RETURN EACH AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY.
THE STRONGEST WEATHER THREATS OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS WILL COME FROM
LIGHTNING AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN NEAR THUNDERSTORMS.

THE EVENING FORECAST GRIDS LOOK GOOD. NO EVENING UPDATES NEEDED.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION /336 PM MST/...VERY MOIST CONDITIONS ACROSS
NORTHERN ARIZONA THIS AFTERNOON WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. CLOUD COVER DELAYED CONVECTION OVER AREAS NORTH OF
INTERSTATE 40 UNTIL THIS AFTERNOON. A WEAK LOW PRESSURE CENTER
OVER NORTHERN ARIZONA THIS AFTERNOON IS CAUSING STORMS WEST OF
I-17 AND NORTH OF I-40 TO MOVE GENERALLY WEST. STORMS SOUTHEAST OF
FLAGSTAFF ARE GENERALLY MOVING NORTH. STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO LAST
WELL INTO THE EVENING THEN DECREASE AFTER DARK.

THE MOIST MONSOONAL FLOW WILL REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS NORTHERN
ARIZONA THROUGH SATURDAY....AND PRECIP CHANCES ARE ABOVE
CLIMATOLOGY.

FROM SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...MODELS ARE SHOWING DRIER SOUTHWEST
FLOW TO RETURN TO WESTERN ARIZONA ON SUNDAY...PUSHING THE MONSOON
PLUME EASTWARD. BY MONDAY...MOST OF THE MOISTURE WILL BE EAST OF
I-17 TO PAGE. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED STORM ACTIVITY TO CONTINUE
ACROSS NAVAJO AND APACHE COUNTIES THOUGH WEDNESDAY.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...SCATTERED AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWERS AND STORMS
ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH SATURDAY. LIGHTNING...LOCALLY HEAVY
RAIN...AND SMALL HAIL ARE THE PRIMARY EXPECTED HAZARDS.

.SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...THE MONSOON WEATHER PATTERN IS EXPECTED
TO PERSIST THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH DAILY THUNDERSTORM CHANCES
CONTINUING.  THERE IS A POSSIBILITY OF A DOWNTURN IN STORM ACTIVITY
EARLY NEXT WEEK ACROSS WESTERN ARIZONA AS DRIER AIR MOVES IN FROM
THE WEST.

&&

.AVIATION...ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EACH
DAY ACROSS NORTHERN ARIZONA. LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN WITH MVFR/IFR
POSSIBLE NEAR THUNDERSTORMS. THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL DIMINISH
AFTER 03Z FRIDAY.

&&

.FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC.........BOHLIN/MAS
FIRE WEATHER...MAS
AVIATION.......BOHLIN

FOR NORTHERN ARIZONA WEATHER INFORMATION VISIT
WEATHER.GOV/FLAGSTAFF



000
FXUS65 KFGZ 310742
AFDFGZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ
435 AM MST TUE JUL 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...MOISTURE WILL BEGIN TO GRADUALLY RETURN WEST AND NORTH
TODAY AND WEDNESDAY...WITH NORMAL MONSOON CONDITIONS RETURNING TO
ALL AREAS BY THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...SEVERAL FEATURES NOTED ON THIS MORNINGS WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY WILL COME TOGETHER AND BRING THE MONSOON BACK TO ARIZONA
THIS WEEK. A STRONG UPPER LOW IN EASTERN MONTANA AND THE TROUGH
ASSOCIATED WITH IT WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE AWAY FROM THE WESTERN
UNITED STATES. THIS WILL ALLOW HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS TO STRENGTHEN AND SHIFT WESTWARD. AT THE SAME TIME...A WEAK
UPPER LOW IN THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH DEEPER
MOISTURE INTO SOUTHERN ARIZONA.

EVENTUALLY...INCREASING SOUTHERLY AND SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW WILL PICK
UP THIS MOISTURE...WITH ADDITIONAL AID FROM OUTFLOWS AND COMPLEX
ACTIVITY...MOVING THE MONSOON BOUNDARY ALL THE WAY INTO ARIZONA BY
THURSDAY. TODAY AND WEDNESDAY WILL BE TRANSITIONAL DAYS...WITH THE
BOUNDARY RUNNING FROM ABOUT PHOENIX TO THE FOUR CORNERS TODAY AND
FROM YUMA TO FLAGSTAFF BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. THURSDAY ONWARD WILL
FEATURE LOW TO MODERATE GRADE MONSOON ACTIVITY OVER MUCH OF THE AREA.

&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 12Z PACKAGE...EXPECT SCATTERED SHRA/TSRA
ACTIVITY FROM KSOW SOUTHEAST AFT 18Z...WITH ISOLATED STORM ACTIVITY
AS FAR NORTHWEST AS KFLG. CONDITIONS TO PRIMARILY REMAIN VFR.
AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDMENTS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...MONSOON MOISTURE WILL GRADUALLY SPREAD NORTH AND
WEST ACROSS THE STATE OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. EXPECT SCATTERED
SHOWERS/STORMS IN THE WHITE MOUNTAINS TODAY WITH ISOLATED ACTIVITY
POSSIBLE ALONG THE MOGOLLON RIM. SIMILAR CONDITIONS EXPECTED
WEDNESDAY WITH THUNDERSTORM CHANCES SPREADING INTO YAVAPAI AND GILA
COUNTIES. STRONG OUTFLOW WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE NEAR STORMS BOTH
AFTERNOONS.

THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...EXPECT A RETURN TO MORE TYPICAL SUMMER
MONSOON CONDITIONS WITH SCATTERED STORM ACTIVITY EACH DAY. NEAR
AVERAGE TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED.

&&

.FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC...PETERSON
AVIATION...MCS
FIRE WEATHER...MCS


FOR NORTHERN ARIZONA WEATHER INFORMATION VISIT
WEATHER.GOV/FLAGSTAFF




000
FXUS65 KFGZ 310742
AFDFGZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ
435 AM MST TUE JUL 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...MOISTURE WILL BEGIN TO GRADUALLY RETURN WEST AND NORTH
TODAY AND WEDNESDAY...WITH NORMAL MONSOON CONDITIONS RETURNING TO
ALL AREAS BY THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...SEVERAL FEATURES NOTED ON THIS MORNINGS WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY WILL COME TOGETHER AND BRING THE MONSOON BACK TO ARIZONA
THIS WEEK. A STRONG UPPER LOW IN EASTERN MONTANA AND THE TROUGH
ASSOCIATED WITH IT WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE AWAY FROM THE WESTERN
UNITED STATES. THIS WILL ALLOW HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS TO STRENGTHEN AND SHIFT WESTWARD. AT THE SAME TIME...A WEAK
UPPER LOW IN THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH DEEPER
MOISTURE INTO SOUTHERN ARIZONA.

EVENTUALLY...INCREASING SOUTHERLY AND SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW WILL PICK
UP THIS MOISTURE...WITH ADDITIONAL AID FROM OUTFLOWS AND COMPLEX
ACTIVITY...MOVING THE MONSOON BOUNDARY ALL THE WAY INTO ARIZONA BY
THURSDAY. TODAY AND WEDNESDAY WILL BE TRANSITIONAL DAYS...WITH THE
BOUNDARY RUNNING FROM ABOUT PHOENIX TO THE FOUR CORNERS TODAY AND
FROM YUMA TO FLAGSTAFF BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. THURSDAY ONWARD WILL
FEATURE LOW TO MODERATE GRADE MONSOON ACTIVITY OVER MUCH OF THE AREA.

&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 12Z PACKAGE...EXPECT SCATTERED SHRA/TSRA
ACTIVITY FROM KSOW SOUTHEAST AFT 18Z...WITH ISOLATED STORM ACTIVITY
AS FAR NORTHWEST AS KFLG. CONDITIONS TO PRIMARILY REMAIN VFR.
AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDMENTS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...MONSOON MOISTURE WILL GRADUALLY SPREAD NORTH AND
WEST ACROSS THE STATE OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. EXPECT SCATTERED
SHOWERS/STORMS IN THE WHITE MOUNTAINS TODAY WITH ISOLATED ACTIVITY
POSSIBLE ALONG THE MOGOLLON RIM. SIMILAR CONDITIONS EXPECTED
WEDNESDAY WITH THUNDERSTORM CHANCES SPREADING INTO YAVAPAI AND GILA
COUNTIES. STRONG OUTFLOW WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE NEAR STORMS BOTH
AFTERNOONS.

THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...EXPECT A RETURN TO MORE TYPICAL SUMMER
MONSOON CONDITIONS WITH SCATTERED STORM ACTIVITY EACH DAY. NEAR
AVERAGE TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED.

&&

.FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC...PETERSON
AVIATION...MCS
FIRE WEATHER...MCS


FOR NORTHERN ARIZONA WEATHER INFORMATION VISIT
WEATHER.GOV/FLAGSTAFF



000
FXUS65 KTWC 310419
AFDTWC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ
919 PM MST THU JUL 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...ENOUGH MOISTURE FOR A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS FOR MUCH OF SOUTHEAST ARIZONA INTO NEXT WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...A FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUED ACROSS THE
AREA LATE THIS EVENING. THESE WILL LIKELY DISSIPATE BY MIDNIGHT.
CURRENT FORECAST LOOKED ON TRACK...SO NO UPDATES THIS EVENING.
PLEASE REFER TO THE ADDITIONAL SECTIONS FOR MORE DETAILS.

&&

.AVIATION...VALID THRU 31/06Z.
DECREASING CLOUDS...WITH A FEW CLOUDS AT 8-12K FT AGL BY 31/10Z. SCT-
BKN CLOUDS AT 6-9K FT AGL AND BKN CLOUDS AT 10-14K FT AGL AFT
31/19Z. ISOLD -SHRA/-TSRA OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN THRU 31/03Z...WITH
SCT SHRA/TSRA DEVELOPING AFT 31/20Z. BRIEF WIND GUSTS TO NEAR 35 KTS
POSSIBLE IN AND AROUND THE STRONGER TSRA. OUTSIDE OF STORM
INFLUENCES...SFC WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE LESS THAN 12 KTS WITH A FEW
HIGHER GUSTS IN THE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING HOURS. AVIATION
DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR TAF AMENDMENTS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...DRYING IS THEN EXPECTED ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF OF
THE FORECAST AREA INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...WITH ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUING OVER EASTERN AREAS. STRONG
OUTFLOW WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE NEAR THUNDERSTORMS. OTHERWISE...20-FT
WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE TERRAIN DRIVEN AND LESS THAN 15 MPH...WITH
SOME AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING BREEZINESS DUE TO THE STRONG
DAYTIME HEATING.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...EVEN THOUGH WE ARE DRIER THAN THE PAST 12 TO 24
HOURS...MODELS SHOW PW`S INCREASING FRIDAY INTO THE 1.5 - 1.7 INCH
RANGE AS A WEAK DISTURBANCE MOVES UP FROM THE SOUTHEAST LATE IN THE
DAY AND POTENTIALLY ENHANCES ACTIVITY. BY SATURDAY A WEAK IMPULSE TO
OUR WEST MOVES TO THE NORTH ACROSS WESTERN ARIZONA WITH PW`S AROUND
1.4 -1.6 INCHES. SO...I MAINTAIN A LOW GRADE MONSOON FORECAST WITH
LOW END SCATTERED ACTIVITY FOR MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA FRIDAY AND
MOSTLY CENTRAL AND EASTERN AREAS FOR SATURDAY.

BY SUNDAY THE MODELS SHOW HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED EITHER JUST TO OUR
EAST OR SOUTH (GFS HAS IT OVER NEW MEXICO AND ECMWF EXTENDING FROM
EASTERN PACIFIC ACROSS CENTRAL BAJA AND NORTHERN SONORA). BOTH
MODELS SHOW A DRYING TREND WITH PW`S FROM THE GFS DOWN TO ABOUT 1.2
INCHES. SO...I HAVE THE BEST THREAT FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
BETWEEN TUCSON AND THE NEW MEXICO BORDER.

FROM MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY THE HIGH WILL MEANDER ACROSS THE DESERT
SOUTHWEST IN SOME FORM OR FASHION. ECMWF HAS BEEN THE DRIER MODEL
BETWEEN THE GFS AND ECMWF. FOR NOW I CONTINUE WITH A FORECAST ON
MONDAY THAT IS SIMILAR TO MONDAY...BUT THEN EACH DAY THEREAFTER
SHOULD BE A STANDARD LOW GRADE MONSOON FORECAST...WITH THE BEST
THREAT BETWEEN NOGALES AND DOUGLAS AS WELL AS THE MOUNTAIN TOPS.

FOR TUCSON...HIGH TEMPS WILL BE SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY AND 4 TO 6 DEGS ABOVE NORMAL SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...
ALTHOUGH THE WARMEST DAY SHOULD BE TUESDAY.

&&

.TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...YOUTUBE...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/TUCSON



000
FXUS65 KTWC 310419
AFDTWC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ
919 PM MST THU JUL 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...ENOUGH MOISTURE FOR A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS FOR MUCH OF SOUTHEAST ARIZONA INTO NEXT WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...A FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUED ACROSS THE
AREA LATE THIS EVENING. THESE WILL LIKELY DISSIPATE BY MIDNIGHT.
CURRENT FORECAST LOOKED ON TRACK...SO NO UPDATES THIS EVENING.
PLEASE REFER TO THE ADDITIONAL SECTIONS FOR MORE DETAILS.

&&

.AVIATION...VALID THRU 31/06Z.
DECREASING CLOUDS...WITH A FEW CLOUDS AT 8-12K FT AGL BY 31/10Z. SCT-
BKN CLOUDS AT 6-9K FT AGL AND BKN CLOUDS AT 10-14K FT AGL AFT
31/19Z. ISOLD -SHRA/-TSRA OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN THRU 31/03Z...WITH
SCT SHRA/TSRA DEVELOPING AFT 31/20Z. BRIEF WIND GUSTS TO NEAR 35 KTS
POSSIBLE IN AND AROUND THE STRONGER TSRA. OUTSIDE OF STORM
INFLUENCES...SFC WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE LESS THAN 12 KTS WITH A FEW
HIGHER GUSTS IN THE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING HOURS. AVIATION
DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR TAF AMENDMENTS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...DRYING IS THEN EXPECTED ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF OF
THE FORECAST AREA INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...WITH ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUING OVER EASTERN AREAS. STRONG
OUTFLOW WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE NEAR THUNDERSTORMS. OTHERWISE...20-FT
WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE TERRAIN DRIVEN AND LESS THAN 15 MPH...WITH
SOME AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING BREEZINESS DUE TO THE STRONG
DAYTIME HEATING.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...EVEN THOUGH WE ARE DRIER THAN THE PAST 12 TO 24
HOURS...MODELS SHOW PW`S INCREASING FRIDAY INTO THE 1.5 - 1.7 INCH
RANGE AS A WEAK DISTURBANCE MOVES UP FROM THE SOUTHEAST LATE IN THE
DAY AND POTENTIALLY ENHANCES ACTIVITY. BY SATURDAY A WEAK IMPULSE TO
OUR WEST MOVES TO THE NORTH ACROSS WESTERN ARIZONA WITH PW`S AROUND
1.4 -1.6 INCHES. SO...I MAINTAIN A LOW GRADE MONSOON FORECAST WITH
LOW END SCATTERED ACTIVITY FOR MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA FRIDAY AND
MOSTLY CENTRAL AND EASTERN AREAS FOR SATURDAY.

BY SUNDAY THE MODELS SHOW HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED EITHER JUST TO OUR
EAST OR SOUTH (GFS HAS IT OVER NEW MEXICO AND ECMWF EXTENDING FROM
EASTERN PACIFIC ACROSS CENTRAL BAJA AND NORTHERN SONORA). BOTH
MODELS SHOW A DRYING TREND WITH PW`S FROM THE GFS DOWN TO ABOUT 1.2
INCHES. SO...I HAVE THE BEST THREAT FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
BETWEEN TUCSON AND THE NEW MEXICO BORDER.

FROM MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY THE HIGH WILL MEANDER ACROSS THE DESERT
SOUTHWEST IN SOME FORM OR FASHION. ECMWF HAS BEEN THE DRIER MODEL
BETWEEN THE GFS AND ECMWF. FOR NOW I CONTINUE WITH A FORECAST ON
MONDAY THAT IS SIMILAR TO MONDAY...BUT THEN EACH DAY THEREAFTER
SHOULD BE A STANDARD LOW GRADE MONSOON FORECAST...WITH THE BEST
THREAT BETWEEN NOGALES AND DOUGLAS AS WELL AS THE MOUNTAIN TOPS.

FOR TUCSON...HIGH TEMPS WILL BE SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY AND 4 TO 6 DEGS ABOVE NORMAL SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...
ALTHOUGH THE WARMEST DAY SHOULD BE TUESDAY.

&&

.TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...YOUTUBE...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/TUCSON




000
FXUS65 KTWC 310419
AFDTWC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ
919 PM MST THU JUL 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...ENOUGH MOISTURE FOR A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS FOR MUCH OF SOUTHEAST ARIZONA INTO NEXT WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...A FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUED ACROSS THE
AREA LATE THIS EVENING. THESE WILL LIKELY DISSIPATE BY MIDNIGHT.
CURRENT FORECAST LOOKED ON TRACK...SO NO UPDATES THIS EVENING.
PLEASE REFER TO THE ADDITIONAL SECTIONS FOR MORE DETAILS.

&&

.AVIATION...VALID THRU 31/06Z.
DECREASING CLOUDS...WITH A FEW CLOUDS AT 8-12K FT AGL BY 31/10Z. SCT-
BKN CLOUDS AT 6-9K FT AGL AND BKN CLOUDS AT 10-14K FT AGL AFT
31/19Z. ISOLD -SHRA/-TSRA OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN THRU 31/03Z...WITH
SCT SHRA/TSRA DEVELOPING AFT 31/20Z. BRIEF WIND GUSTS TO NEAR 35 KTS
POSSIBLE IN AND AROUND THE STRONGER TSRA. OUTSIDE OF STORM
INFLUENCES...SFC WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE LESS THAN 12 KTS WITH A FEW
HIGHER GUSTS IN THE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING HOURS. AVIATION
DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR TAF AMENDMENTS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...DRYING IS THEN EXPECTED ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF OF
THE FORECAST AREA INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...WITH ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUING OVER EASTERN AREAS. STRONG
OUTFLOW WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE NEAR THUNDERSTORMS. OTHERWISE...20-FT
WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE TERRAIN DRIVEN AND LESS THAN 15 MPH...WITH
SOME AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING BREEZINESS DUE TO THE STRONG
DAYTIME HEATING.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...EVEN THOUGH WE ARE DRIER THAN THE PAST 12 TO 24
HOURS...MODELS SHOW PW`S INCREASING FRIDAY INTO THE 1.5 - 1.7 INCH
RANGE AS A WEAK DISTURBANCE MOVES UP FROM THE SOUTHEAST LATE IN THE
DAY AND POTENTIALLY ENHANCES ACTIVITY. BY SATURDAY A WEAK IMPULSE TO
OUR WEST MOVES TO THE NORTH ACROSS WESTERN ARIZONA WITH PW`S AROUND
1.4 -1.6 INCHES. SO...I MAINTAIN A LOW GRADE MONSOON FORECAST WITH
LOW END SCATTERED ACTIVITY FOR MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA FRIDAY AND
MOSTLY CENTRAL AND EASTERN AREAS FOR SATURDAY.

BY SUNDAY THE MODELS SHOW HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED EITHER JUST TO OUR
EAST OR SOUTH (GFS HAS IT OVER NEW MEXICO AND ECMWF EXTENDING FROM
EASTERN PACIFIC ACROSS CENTRAL BAJA AND NORTHERN SONORA). BOTH
MODELS SHOW A DRYING TREND WITH PW`S FROM THE GFS DOWN TO ABOUT 1.2
INCHES. SO...I HAVE THE BEST THREAT FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
BETWEEN TUCSON AND THE NEW MEXICO BORDER.

FROM MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY THE HIGH WILL MEANDER ACROSS THE DESERT
SOUTHWEST IN SOME FORM OR FASHION. ECMWF HAS BEEN THE DRIER MODEL
BETWEEN THE GFS AND ECMWF. FOR NOW I CONTINUE WITH A FORECAST ON
MONDAY THAT IS SIMILAR TO MONDAY...BUT THEN EACH DAY THEREAFTER
SHOULD BE A STANDARD LOW GRADE MONSOON FORECAST...WITH THE BEST
THREAT BETWEEN NOGALES AND DOUGLAS AS WELL AS THE MOUNTAIN TOPS.

FOR TUCSON...HIGH TEMPS WILL BE SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY AND 4 TO 6 DEGS ABOVE NORMAL SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...
ALTHOUGH THE WARMEST DAY SHOULD BE TUESDAY.

&&

.TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...YOUTUBE...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/TUCSON



000
FXUS65 KTWC 310419
AFDTWC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ
919 PM MST THU JUL 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...ENOUGH MOISTURE FOR A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS FOR MUCH OF SOUTHEAST ARIZONA INTO NEXT WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...A FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUED ACROSS THE
AREA LATE THIS EVENING. THESE WILL LIKELY DISSIPATE BY MIDNIGHT.
CURRENT FORECAST LOOKED ON TRACK...SO NO UPDATES THIS EVENING.
PLEASE REFER TO THE ADDITIONAL SECTIONS FOR MORE DETAILS.

&&

.AVIATION...VALID THRU 31/06Z.
DECREASING CLOUDS...WITH A FEW CLOUDS AT 8-12K FT AGL BY 31/10Z. SCT-
BKN CLOUDS AT 6-9K FT AGL AND BKN CLOUDS AT 10-14K FT AGL AFT
31/19Z. ISOLD -SHRA/-TSRA OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN THRU 31/03Z...WITH
SCT SHRA/TSRA DEVELOPING AFT 31/20Z. BRIEF WIND GUSTS TO NEAR 35 KTS
POSSIBLE IN AND AROUND THE STRONGER TSRA. OUTSIDE OF STORM
INFLUENCES...SFC WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE LESS THAN 12 KTS WITH A FEW
HIGHER GUSTS IN THE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING HOURS. AVIATION
DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR TAF AMENDMENTS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...DRYING IS THEN EXPECTED ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF OF
THE FORECAST AREA INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...WITH ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUING OVER EASTERN AREAS. STRONG
OUTFLOW WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE NEAR THUNDERSTORMS. OTHERWISE...20-FT
WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE TERRAIN DRIVEN AND LESS THAN 15 MPH...WITH
SOME AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING BREEZINESS DUE TO THE STRONG
DAYTIME HEATING.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...EVEN THOUGH WE ARE DRIER THAN THE PAST 12 TO 24
HOURS...MODELS SHOW PW`S INCREASING FRIDAY INTO THE 1.5 - 1.7 INCH
RANGE AS A WEAK DISTURBANCE MOVES UP FROM THE SOUTHEAST LATE IN THE
DAY AND POTENTIALLY ENHANCES ACTIVITY. BY SATURDAY A WEAK IMPULSE TO
OUR WEST MOVES TO THE NORTH ACROSS WESTERN ARIZONA WITH PW`S AROUND
1.4 -1.6 INCHES. SO...I MAINTAIN A LOW GRADE MONSOON FORECAST WITH
LOW END SCATTERED ACTIVITY FOR MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA FRIDAY AND
MOSTLY CENTRAL AND EASTERN AREAS FOR SATURDAY.

BY SUNDAY THE MODELS SHOW HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED EITHER JUST TO OUR
EAST OR SOUTH (GFS HAS IT OVER NEW MEXICO AND ECMWF EXTENDING FROM
EASTERN PACIFIC ACROSS CENTRAL BAJA AND NORTHERN SONORA). BOTH
MODELS SHOW A DRYING TREND WITH PW`S FROM THE GFS DOWN TO ABOUT 1.2
INCHES. SO...I HAVE THE BEST THREAT FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
BETWEEN TUCSON AND THE NEW MEXICO BORDER.

FROM MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY THE HIGH WILL MEANDER ACROSS THE DESERT
SOUTHWEST IN SOME FORM OR FASHION. ECMWF HAS BEEN THE DRIER MODEL
BETWEEN THE GFS AND ECMWF. FOR NOW I CONTINUE WITH A FORECAST ON
MONDAY THAT IS SIMILAR TO MONDAY...BUT THEN EACH DAY THEREAFTER
SHOULD BE A STANDARD LOW GRADE MONSOON FORECAST...WITH THE BEST
THREAT BETWEEN NOGALES AND DOUGLAS AS WELL AS THE MOUNTAIN TOPS.

FOR TUCSON...HIGH TEMPS WILL BE SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY AND 4 TO 6 DEGS ABOVE NORMAL SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...
ALTHOUGH THE WARMEST DAY SHOULD BE TUESDAY.

&&

.TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...YOUTUBE...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/TUCSON




000
FXUS65 KFGZ 310404
AFDFGZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ
904 PM MST THU JUL 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DIMINISHED THIS
EVENING ACROSS NORTHERN ARIZONA. DEEP MOISTURE WILL REMAIN IN
PLACE WITH A WET MONSOON PATTERN FORECAST TO CONTINUE THROUGH
SATURDAY. EXPECT INCREASING STORM COVERAGE EACH AFTERNOON WITH
ACTIVITY DIMINISHING AFTER SUNSET.

&&

.DISCUSSION...THE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THAT
DEVELOPED TODAY ACROSS THE REGION HAVE DIMINISHED THIS EVENING. A
WET MONSOON PATTERN WILL RETURN EACH AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY.
THE STRONGEST WEATHER THREATS OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS WILL COME FROM
LIGHTNING AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN NEAR THUNDERSTORMS.

THE EVENING FORECAST GRIDS LOOK GOOD. NO EVENING UPDATES NEEDED.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION /336 PM MST/...VERY MOIST CONDITIONS ACROSS
NORTHERN ARIZONA THIS AFTERNOON WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. CLOUD COVER DELAYED CONVECTION OVER AREAS NORTH OF
INTERSTATE 40 UNTIL THIS AFTERNOON. A WEAK LOW PRESSURE CENTER
OVER NORTHERN ARIZONA THIS AFTERNOON IS CAUSING STORMS WEST OF
I-17 AND NORTH OF I-40 TO MOVE GENERALLY WEST. STORMS SOUTHEAST OF
FLAGSTAFF ARE GENERALLY MOVING NORTH. STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO LAST
WELL INTO THE EVENING THEN DECREASE AFTER DARK.

THE MOIST MONSOONAL FLOW WILL REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS NORTHERN
ARIZONA THROUGH SATURDAY....AND PRECIP CHANCES ARE ABOVE
CLIMATOLOGY.

FROM SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...MODELS ARE SHOWING DRIER SOUTHWEST
FLOW TO RETURN TO WESTERN ARIZONA ON SUNDAY...PUSHING THE MONSOON
PLUME EASTWARD. BY MONDAY...MOST OF THE MOISTURE WILL BE EAST OF
I-17 TO PAGE. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED STORM ACTIVITY TO CONTINUE
ACROSS NAVAJO AND APACHE COUNTIES THOUGH WEDNESDAY.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...SCATTERED AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWERS AND STORMS
ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH SATURDAY. LIGHTNING...LOCALLY HEAVY
RAIN...AND SMALL HAIL ARE THE PRIMARY EXPECTED HAZARDS.

.SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...THE MONSOON WEATHER PATTERN IS EXPECTED
TO PERSIST THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH DAILY THUNDERSTORM CHANCES
CONTINUING.  THERE IS A POSSIBILITY OF A DOWNTURN IN STORM ACTIVITY
EARLY NEXT WEEK ACROSS WESTERN ARIZONA AS DRIER AIR MOVES IN FROM
THE WEST.

&&

.AVIATION...ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EACH
DAY ACROSS NORTHERN ARIZONA. LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN WITH MVFR/IFR
POSSIBLE NEAR THUNDERSTORMS. THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL DIMINISH
AFTER 03Z FRIDAY.

&&

.FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC.........BOHLIN/MAS
FIRE WEATHER...MAS
AVIATION.......BOHLIN

FOR NORTHERN ARIZONA WEATHER INFORMATION VISIT
WEATHER.GOV/FLAGSTAFF



000
FXUS65 KFGZ 310404
AFDFGZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ
904 PM MST THU JUL 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DIMINISHED THIS
EVENING ACROSS NORTHERN ARIZONA. DEEP MOISTURE WILL REMAIN IN
PLACE WITH A WET MONSOON PATTERN FORECAST TO CONTINUE THROUGH
SATURDAY. EXPECT INCREASING STORM COVERAGE EACH AFTERNOON WITH
ACTIVITY DIMINISHING AFTER SUNSET.

&&

.DISCUSSION...THE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THAT
DEVELOPED TODAY ACROSS THE REGION HAVE DIMINISHED THIS EVENING. A
WET MONSOON PATTERN WILL RETURN EACH AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY.
THE STRONGEST WEATHER THREATS OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS WILL COME FROM
LIGHTNING AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN NEAR THUNDERSTORMS.

THE EVENING FORECAST GRIDS LOOK GOOD. NO EVENING UPDATES NEEDED.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION /336 PM MST/...VERY MOIST CONDITIONS ACROSS
NORTHERN ARIZONA THIS AFTERNOON WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. CLOUD COVER DELAYED CONVECTION OVER AREAS NORTH OF
INTERSTATE 40 UNTIL THIS AFTERNOON. A WEAK LOW PRESSURE CENTER
OVER NORTHERN ARIZONA THIS AFTERNOON IS CAUSING STORMS WEST OF
I-17 AND NORTH OF I-40 TO MOVE GENERALLY WEST. STORMS SOUTHEAST OF
FLAGSTAFF ARE GENERALLY MOVING NORTH. STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO LAST
WELL INTO THE EVENING THEN DECREASE AFTER DARK.

THE MOIST MONSOONAL FLOW WILL REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS NORTHERN
ARIZONA THROUGH SATURDAY....AND PRECIP CHANCES ARE ABOVE
CLIMATOLOGY.

FROM SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...MODELS ARE SHOWING DRIER SOUTHWEST
FLOW TO RETURN TO WESTERN ARIZONA ON SUNDAY...PUSHING THE MONSOON
PLUME EASTWARD. BY MONDAY...MOST OF THE MOISTURE WILL BE EAST OF
I-17 TO PAGE. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED STORM ACTIVITY TO CONTINUE
ACROSS NAVAJO AND APACHE COUNTIES THOUGH WEDNESDAY.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...SCATTERED AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWERS AND STORMS
ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH SATURDAY. LIGHTNING...LOCALLY HEAVY
RAIN...AND SMALL HAIL ARE THE PRIMARY EXPECTED HAZARDS.

.SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...THE MONSOON WEATHER PATTERN IS EXPECTED
TO PERSIST THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH DAILY THUNDERSTORM CHANCES
CONTINUING.  THERE IS A POSSIBILITY OF A DOWNTURN IN STORM ACTIVITY
EARLY NEXT WEEK ACROSS WESTERN ARIZONA AS DRIER AIR MOVES IN FROM
THE WEST.

&&

.AVIATION...ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EACH
DAY ACROSS NORTHERN ARIZONA. LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN WITH MVFR/IFR
POSSIBLE NEAR THUNDERSTORMS. THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL DIMINISH
AFTER 03Z FRIDAY.

&&

.FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC.........BOHLIN/MAS
FIRE WEATHER...MAS
AVIATION.......BOHLIN

FOR NORTHERN ARIZONA WEATHER INFORMATION VISIT
WEATHER.GOV/FLAGSTAFF




000
FXUS65 KPSR 310345
AFDPSR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PHOENIX AZ
845 PM MST THU JUL 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED STORM ACTIVITY IS ANTICIPATED OVER ARIZONA AND
SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA THE REST OF THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING AND AGAIN
FRIDAY. A NOTABLE DOWNTREND IN MOISTURE FROM WEST TO EAST IS EXPECTED
OVER THE WEEKEND. THIS WILL KEEP STORM CHANCES LIMITED TO SOUTH-
CENTRAL ARIZONA WELL INTO NEXT WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION... IT WAS ANOTHER INTERESTING MONSOON EVENING ACROSS THE
WESTERN PORTION OF THE AREA...FROM YUMA/LA PAZ COUNTIES WESTWARD TO
JOSHUA TREE...AS SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND STORMS DEVELOPING
DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS...THEN STEADILY AND SLOWLY PROGRESSED
WESTWARD ALONG THE LEADING EDGE OF STRONG OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES.
OVERALL...DYNAMICS WERE SOMEWHAT MINIMAL TODAY AS AN INVERTED
TROF/VORT MAX WAS LOCATED ACROSS CENTRAL AZ AND THE LOWER DESERTS
WERE ON THE BACK SIDE OF THIS FEATURE AND UNDER A MORE SUBSIDENT
REGIME. AT LEAST...THIS WAS TRUE OVER SOUTH CENTRAL AZ WHERE FEW IF
ANY STORMS DEVELOPED THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING UNDER PARTLY SUNNY
SKIES. CAPE AND PWAT APPEARED TO BE HIGHER ACROSS THE WESTERN
DESERTS THIS EVENING AND THIS HELPED EXPLAIN THE MUCH HIGHER LEVELS
OF CONVECTION THAT OCCURRED. STILL...THE MOST LIKELY DRIVER FOR THE
WIDESPREAD CONVECTION WAS BOUNDARY INTERACTION...TYPICAL DURING THE
CENTRAL PORTION OF OUR MONSOON. SEVERAL SMALL STREAM FLOOD ADVISORIES
WERE ISSUED OVER THE COURSE OF THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING...WITH
THE MOST WIDESPREAD CONVECTION OVER CENTRAL LA PAZ AND MUCH OF
EASTERN RIVERSIDE COUNTIES. THE AREAS AROUND DESERT CENTER AND
QUARTZSITE WERE THE HARDEST HIT BY RAINFALL BUT NO REPORTS OF
SERIOUS FLASH FLOODING HAVE YET TO BE RECEIVED FOR THOSE AREAS.

AS OF 830 PM MOST OF THE STORMS HAD DISSIPATED ALTHOUGH ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE TO FIRE WELL TO THE SOUTHWEST OF THE GREATER
PHOENIX AREA...IN LOCALES SUCH AS SOUTH CENTRAL YUMA COUNTY AND NEAR
THE MARICOPA/PIMA COUNTY LINE. FOR THE REST OF TONIGHT...THERE WILL
BE A CONTINUED WEAK SOUTHERLY STEERING FLOW ACROSS THE AREA...AND WE
WILL BE BEHIND THE EXITING INVERTED TROF UNDER WEAK ANTICYCLONIC
FLOW ALOFT. THUS...EXPECT ONLY ISOLATED STORMS AT BEST OVER THE
LOWER DESERTS...WITH BETTER CHANCES OVER THE WESTERN DESERTS WHERE
MOISTURE AND CAPE REMAIN A BIT HIGHER. FORECASTS HAVE BEEN TWEAKED
TO REFLECT CURRENT SKY AND WEATHER TRENDS AND LOOK TO BE IN GOOD
SHAPE.

.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
STORM ACTIVITY OVER ARIZONA SO FAR HAS BEEN LIMITED IN AREA FOCUSING
INITIALLY OVER WESTERN YAVAPAI THEN SPREADING INTO MOHAVE AND LA PAZ
COUNTIES. THIS HAS BEEN AIDED BY A VORT MAX CENTERED OVER NORTHERN
ARIZONA. IT WILL MOVE SLOWLY NORTH AND NORTHWESTWARD WITH TIME. WITH
THAT TRAJECTORY IT WILL TEND TO HAVE A DECREASING IMPACT ON OUR
FORECAST AREA WITH TIME...ESPECIALLY BY LATE EVENING. OVER SOUTHEAST
CALIFORNIA...ACTIVITY HAS BEEN ISOLATED TO THE VICINITY OF 29 PALMS
AND JOSHUA TREE NATIONAL PARK. THIS IS CLOSE TO A SHORT WAVE ON THE
FAR NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF AN ELONGATED UPPER LOW CENTERED OFF THE
BAJA COAST. FOR OUR FORECAST AREA...ANTICIPATE CONTINUED DEVELOPMENT
THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON FOCUSING OVER OVER LA PAZ AND EASTERN
RIVERSIDE COUNTIES...INCLUDING JOSHUA TREE NATIONAL PARK...WHERE
CAPE IS BEST. FLASH FLOOD WATCH CONTINUES FOR JOSHUA TREE NATIONAL
PARK THROUGH 03Z. MODELS ALSO HOLD ON TO SOME BETTER CAPE OVER
HIGHER TERRAIN OF SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA...THOUGH PWAT IS LOWER THERE. ONLY
SLIGHT CHANCES ELSEWHERE. SLOW DEVELOPING CONVECTION OVER NORTHWEST
MEXICO IS ANTICIPATED TO SEND DEBRIS CLOUDS...AND POSSIBLY SOME
EMBEDDED LIGHT SHOWERS...OVER OUR AREA LATE TONIGHT AND INTO THE
MORNING FRIDAY AND THUS HELD ON TO SOME LOW END POPS. MODELS SHOW
DECREASED LOWER LEVEL MOISTURE TO VARYING DEGREES ON FRIDAY AND THUS
LESS CAPE. HOWEVER...THERE WILL STILL BE ENOUGH LINGERING LOWER LEVEL
MOISTURE FOR A SLIGHT CHANCE AT MOST LOWER LEVEL LOCATIONS.

TROUGHING OFF THE WEST COAST BEGINS TO TAKE HOLD SATURDAY BEGINNING AN
EASTWARD RETREAT OF MOISTURE AND THUS A DOWNWARD TREND OF POPS FOR
THE WEEKEND. THE RIDGE REBUILDS EARLY NEXT WEEK BUT MODELS ARE
RELUCTANT TO BRING SIGNIFICANT MOISTURE BACK. JUST ENOUGH MOISTURE
HANGS ON OVER SOUTH- CENTRAL ARIZONA FOR LINGERING POPS OVER SOUTH-
CENTRAL ARIZONA MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY BUT OVERALL A LOW GRADE
MONSOON SCENARIO.

&&

.AVIATION...
SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA INCLUDING KPHX...KIWA...AND
KSDL...

CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE REST OF THE NIGHTTIME HOURS IS
MINIMAL...NOT ZERO...BUT NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO MENTION ANY WEATHER OR
EVEN VCSH IN THE TAFS. WILL GO WITH FEW-SCT HIGH BASED CU AROUND 10K
AND SCT-BKN CIRRUS DECKS. WE ARE ONLY LOOKING AT SLIGHT CHANCES FOR
STORMS FRIDAY EVENING SO DO NOT EXPECT ANY WEATHER TO BE ADDED TO
THE TAFS FOR AT LEAST THE NEXT 18 HOURS. WINDS WILL BE ON THE LIGHT
SIDE AND FOLLOW NORMAL DIURNAL CONVECTIONS.

SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA AND SOUTHWEST ARIZONA INCLUDING KIPL AND
KBLH...

IT APPEARS THE THREAT FOR SHOWERS/STORMS OR EVEN STRONG OUTFLOWS IS
PRETTY MUCH OVER FOR THE REST OF TONIGHT...SO WE ARE LEFT WITH
MAINLY FEW-SCT MID AND UPPER LEVEL DEBRIS CLOUD DECKS THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON ON FRIDAY. WINDS WILL BE ON THE LIGHT SIDE THROUGH THE TAF
PERIOD....FAVORING THE SOUTH AT KBLH AND THE SOUTHEAST AT KIPL.

AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDED TAFS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...
MONSOONAL MOISTURE WILL SLOWLY BEGIN TO THIN ACROSS THE AREA...FIRST
ACROSS THE WESTERN FIRE DISTRICTS AND EVENTUALLY INTO THE ENTIRE
LOWER DESERT ELEVATIONS AND REGION BY EARLY NEXT WEEK. THIS WILL
RELEGATE STORM CHANCES BACK TOWARDS THE HIGHER TERRAIN AND FURTHER
TO THE EAST ACROSS AZ. THE SLIGHTLY DRIER AIRMASS AND BUILDING UPPER
RIDGE HEIGHTS WILL LEND THEMSELVES TOWARD WARMER SFC CONDITIONS...AT
OR ABOVE SEASONAL NORMALS. WINDS WILL FOLLOW FAMILIAR WARM SEASON
PATTERNS.

&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT CONDITIONS ACCORDING TO STANDARD
OPERATING PROCEDURES.

&&

.PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AZ...NONE.
CA...NONE.

&&

$$

VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/PHOENIX

DISCUSSION...CB
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...AJ
AVIATION...CB
FIRE WEATHER...NOLTE




000
FXUS65 KPSR 310345
AFDPSR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PHOENIX AZ
845 PM MST THU JUL 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED STORM ACTIVITY IS ANTICIPATED OVER ARIZONA AND
SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA THE REST OF THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING AND AGAIN
FRIDAY. A NOTABLE DOWNTREND IN MOISTURE FROM WEST TO EAST IS EXPECTED
OVER THE WEEKEND. THIS WILL KEEP STORM CHANCES LIMITED TO SOUTH-
CENTRAL ARIZONA WELL INTO NEXT WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION... IT WAS ANOTHER INTERESTING MONSOON EVENING ACROSS THE
WESTERN PORTION OF THE AREA...FROM YUMA/LA PAZ COUNTIES WESTWARD TO
JOSHUA TREE...AS SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND STORMS DEVELOPING
DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS...THEN STEADILY AND SLOWLY PROGRESSED
WESTWARD ALONG THE LEADING EDGE OF STRONG OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES.
OVERALL...DYNAMICS WERE SOMEWHAT MINIMAL TODAY AS AN INVERTED
TROF/VORT MAX WAS LOCATED ACROSS CENTRAL AZ AND THE LOWER DESERTS
WERE ON THE BACK SIDE OF THIS FEATURE AND UNDER A MORE SUBSIDENT
REGIME. AT LEAST...THIS WAS TRUE OVER SOUTH CENTRAL AZ WHERE FEW IF
ANY STORMS DEVELOPED THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING UNDER PARTLY SUNNY
SKIES. CAPE AND PWAT APPEARED TO BE HIGHER ACROSS THE WESTERN
DESERTS THIS EVENING AND THIS HELPED EXPLAIN THE MUCH HIGHER LEVELS
OF CONVECTION THAT OCCURRED. STILL...THE MOST LIKELY DRIVER FOR THE
WIDESPREAD CONVECTION WAS BOUNDARY INTERACTION...TYPICAL DURING THE
CENTRAL PORTION OF OUR MONSOON. SEVERAL SMALL STREAM FLOOD ADVISORIES
WERE ISSUED OVER THE COURSE OF THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING...WITH
THE MOST WIDESPREAD CONVECTION OVER CENTRAL LA PAZ AND MUCH OF
EASTERN RIVERSIDE COUNTIES. THE AREAS AROUND DESERT CENTER AND
QUARTZSITE WERE THE HARDEST HIT BY RAINFALL BUT NO REPORTS OF
SERIOUS FLASH FLOODING HAVE YET TO BE RECEIVED FOR THOSE AREAS.

AS OF 830 PM MOST OF THE STORMS HAD DISSIPATED ALTHOUGH ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE TO FIRE WELL TO THE SOUTHWEST OF THE GREATER
PHOENIX AREA...IN LOCALES SUCH AS SOUTH CENTRAL YUMA COUNTY AND NEAR
THE MARICOPA/PIMA COUNTY LINE. FOR THE REST OF TONIGHT...THERE WILL
BE A CONTINUED WEAK SOUTHERLY STEERING FLOW ACROSS THE AREA...AND WE
WILL BE BEHIND THE EXITING INVERTED TROF UNDER WEAK ANTICYCLONIC
FLOW ALOFT. THUS...EXPECT ONLY ISOLATED STORMS AT BEST OVER THE
LOWER DESERTS...WITH BETTER CHANCES OVER THE WESTERN DESERTS WHERE
MOISTURE AND CAPE REMAIN A BIT HIGHER. FORECASTS HAVE BEEN TWEAKED
TO REFLECT CURRENT SKY AND WEATHER TRENDS AND LOOK TO BE IN GOOD
SHAPE.

.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
STORM ACTIVITY OVER ARIZONA SO FAR HAS BEEN LIMITED IN AREA FOCUSING
INITIALLY OVER WESTERN YAVAPAI THEN SPREADING INTO MOHAVE AND LA PAZ
COUNTIES. THIS HAS BEEN AIDED BY A VORT MAX CENTERED OVER NORTHERN
ARIZONA. IT WILL MOVE SLOWLY NORTH AND NORTHWESTWARD WITH TIME. WITH
THAT TRAJECTORY IT WILL TEND TO HAVE A DECREASING IMPACT ON OUR
FORECAST AREA WITH TIME...ESPECIALLY BY LATE EVENING. OVER SOUTHEAST
CALIFORNIA...ACTIVITY HAS BEEN ISOLATED TO THE VICINITY OF 29 PALMS
AND JOSHUA TREE NATIONAL PARK. THIS IS CLOSE TO A SHORT WAVE ON THE
FAR NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF AN ELONGATED UPPER LOW CENTERED OFF THE
BAJA COAST. FOR OUR FORECAST AREA...ANTICIPATE CONTINUED DEVELOPMENT
THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON FOCUSING OVER OVER LA PAZ AND EASTERN
RIVERSIDE COUNTIES...INCLUDING JOSHUA TREE NATIONAL PARK...WHERE
CAPE IS BEST. FLASH FLOOD WATCH CONTINUES FOR JOSHUA TREE NATIONAL
PARK THROUGH 03Z. MODELS ALSO HOLD ON TO SOME BETTER CAPE OVER
HIGHER TERRAIN OF SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA...THOUGH PWAT IS LOWER THERE. ONLY
SLIGHT CHANCES ELSEWHERE. SLOW DEVELOPING CONVECTION OVER NORTHWEST
MEXICO IS ANTICIPATED TO SEND DEBRIS CLOUDS...AND POSSIBLY SOME
EMBEDDED LIGHT SHOWERS...OVER OUR AREA LATE TONIGHT AND INTO THE
MORNING FRIDAY AND THUS HELD ON TO SOME LOW END POPS. MODELS SHOW
DECREASED LOWER LEVEL MOISTURE TO VARYING DEGREES ON FRIDAY AND THUS
LESS CAPE. HOWEVER...THERE WILL STILL BE ENOUGH LINGERING LOWER LEVEL
MOISTURE FOR A SLIGHT CHANCE AT MOST LOWER LEVEL LOCATIONS.

TROUGHING OFF THE WEST COAST BEGINS TO TAKE HOLD SATURDAY BEGINNING AN
EASTWARD RETREAT OF MOISTURE AND THUS A DOWNWARD TREND OF POPS FOR
THE WEEKEND. THE RIDGE REBUILDS EARLY NEXT WEEK BUT MODELS ARE
RELUCTANT TO BRING SIGNIFICANT MOISTURE BACK. JUST ENOUGH MOISTURE
HANGS ON OVER SOUTH- CENTRAL ARIZONA FOR LINGERING POPS OVER SOUTH-
CENTRAL ARIZONA MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY BUT OVERALL A LOW GRADE
MONSOON SCENARIO.

&&

.AVIATION...
SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA INCLUDING KPHX...KIWA...AND
KSDL...

CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE REST OF THE NIGHTTIME HOURS IS
MINIMAL...NOT ZERO...BUT NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO MENTION ANY WEATHER OR
EVEN VCSH IN THE TAFS. WILL GO WITH FEW-SCT HIGH BASED CU AROUND 10K
AND SCT-BKN CIRRUS DECKS. WE ARE ONLY LOOKING AT SLIGHT CHANCES FOR
STORMS FRIDAY EVENING SO DO NOT EXPECT ANY WEATHER TO BE ADDED TO
THE TAFS FOR AT LEAST THE NEXT 18 HOURS. WINDS WILL BE ON THE LIGHT
SIDE AND FOLLOW NORMAL DIURNAL CONVECTIONS.

SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA AND SOUTHWEST ARIZONA INCLUDING KIPL AND
KBLH...

IT APPEARS THE THREAT FOR SHOWERS/STORMS OR EVEN STRONG OUTFLOWS IS
PRETTY MUCH OVER FOR THE REST OF TONIGHT...SO WE ARE LEFT WITH
MAINLY FEW-SCT MID AND UPPER LEVEL DEBRIS CLOUD DECKS THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON ON FRIDAY. WINDS WILL BE ON THE LIGHT SIDE THROUGH THE TAF
PERIOD....FAVORING THE SOUTH AT KBLH AND THE SOUTHEAST AT KIPL.

AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDED TAFS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...
MONSOONAL MOISTURE WILL SLOWLY BEGIN TO THIN ACROSS THE AREA...FIRST
ACROSS THE WESTERN FIRE DISTRICTS AND EVENTUALLY INTO THE ENTIRE
LOWER DESERT ELEVATIONS AND REGION BY EARLY NEXT WEEK. THIS WILL
RELEGATE STORM CHANCES BACK TOWARDS THE HIGHER TERRAIN AND FURTHER
TO THE EAST ACROSS AZ. THE SLIGHTLY DRIER AIRMASS AND BUILDING UPPER
RIDGE HEIGHTS WILL LEND THEMSELVES TOWARD WARMER SFC CONDITIONS...AT
OR ABOVE SEASONAL NORMALS. WINDS WILL FOLLOW FAMILIAR WARM SEASON
PATTERNS.

&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT CONDITIONS ACCORDING TO STANDARD
OPERATING PROCEDURES.

&&

.PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AZ...NONE.
CA...NONE.

&&

$$

VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/PHOENIX

DISCUSSION...CB
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...AJ
AVIATION...CB
FIRE WEATHER...NOLTE



000
FXUS65 KPSR 310345
AFDPSR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PHOENIX AZ
845 PM MST THU JUL 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED STORM ACTIVITY IS ANTICIPATED OVER ARIZONA AND
SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA THE REST OF THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING AND AGAIN
FRIDAY. A NOTABLE DOWNTREND IN MOISTURE FROM WEST TO EAST IS EXPECTED
OVER THE WEEKEND. THIS WILL KEEP STORM CHANCES LIMITED TO SOUTH-
CENTRAL ARIZONA WELL INTO NEXT WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION... IT WAS ANOTHER INTERESTING MONSOON EVENING ACROSS THE
WESTERN PORTION OF THE AREA...FROM YUMA/LA PAZ COUNTIES WESTWARD TO
JOSHUA TREE...AS SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND STORMS DEVELOPING
DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS...THEN STEADILY AND SLOWLY PROGRESSED
WESTWARD ALONG THE LEADING EDGE OF STRONG OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES.
OVERALL...DYNAMICS WERE SOMEWHAT MINIMAL TODAY AS AN INVERTED
TROF/VORT MAX WAS LOCATED ACROSS CENTRAL AZ AND THE LOWER DESERTS
WERE ON THE BACK SIDE OF THIS FEATURE AND UNDER A MORE SUBSIDENT
REGIME. AT LEAST...THIS WAS TRUE OVER SOUTH CENTRAL AZ WHERE FEW IF
ANY STORMS DEVELOPED THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING UNDER PARTLY SUNNY
SKIES. CAPE AND PWAT APPEARED TO BE HIGHER ACROSS THE WESTERN
DESERTS THIS EVENING AND THIS HELPED EXPLAIN THE MUCH HIGHER LEVELS
OF CONVECTION THAT OCCURRED. STILL...THE MOST LIKELY DRIVER FOR THE
WIDESPREAD CONVECTION WAS BOUNDARY INTERACTION...TYPICAL DURING THE
CENTRAL PORTION OF OUR MONSOON. SEVERAL SMALL STREAM FLOOD ADVISORIES
WERE ISSUED OVER THE COURSE OF THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING...WITH
THE MOST WIDESPREAD CONVECTION OVER CENTRAL LA PAZ AND MUCH OF
EASTERN RIVERSIDE COUNTIES. THE AREAS AROUND DESERT CENTER AND
QUARTZSITE WERE THE HARDEST HIT BY RAINFALL BUT NO REPORTS OF
SERIOUS FLASH FLOODING HAVE YET TO BE RECEIVED FOR THOSE AREAS.

AS OF 830 PM MOST OF THE STORMS HAD DISSIPATED ALTHOUGH ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE TO FIRE WELL TO THE SOUTHWEST OF THE GREATER
PHOENIX AREA...IN LOCALES SUCH AS SOUTH CENTRAL YUMA COUNTY AND NEAR
THE MARICOPA/PIMA COUNTY LINE. FOR THE REST OF TONIGHT...THERE WILL
BE A CONTINUED WEAK SOUTHERLY STEERING FLOW ACROSS THE AREA...AND WE
WILL BE BEHIND THE EXITING INVERTED TROF UNDER WEAK ANTICYCLONIC
FLOW ALOFT. THUS...EXPECT ONLY ISOLATED STORMS AT BEST OVER THE
LOWER DESERTS...WITH BETTER CHANCES OVER THE WESTERN DESERTS WHERE
MOISTURE AND CAPE REMAIN A BIT HIGHER. FORECASTS HAVE BEEN TWEAKED
TO REFLECT CURRENT SKY AND WEATHER TRENDS AND LOOK TO BE IN GOOD
SHAPE.

.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
STORM ACTIVITY OVER ARIZONA SO FAR HAS BEEN LIMITED IN AREA FOCUSING
INITIALLY OVER WESTERN YAVAPAI THEN SPREADING INTO MOHAVE AND LA PAZ
COUNTIES. THIS HAS BEEN AIDED BY A VORT MAX CENTERED OVER NORTHERN
ARIZONA. IT WILL MOVE SLOWLY NORTH AND NORTHWESTWARD WITH TIME. WITH
THAT TRAJECTORY IT WILL TEND TO HAVE A DECREASING IMPACT ON OUR
FORECAST AREA WITH TIME...ESPECIALLY BY LATE EVENING. OVER SOUTHEAST
CALIFORNIA...ACTIVITY HAS BEEN ISOLATED TO THE VICINITY OF 29 PALMS
AND JOSHUA TREE NATIONAL PARK. THIS IS CLOSE TO A SHORT WAVE ON THE
FAR NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF AN ELONGATED UPPER LOW CENTERED OFF THE
BAJA COAST. FOR OUR FORECAST AREA...ANTICIPATE CONTINUED DEVELOPMENT
THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON FOCUSING OVER OVER LA PAZ AND EASTERN
RIVERSIDE COUNTIES...INCLUDING JOSHUA TREE NATIONAL PARK...WHERE
CAPE IS BEST. FLASH FLOOD WATCH CONTINUES FOR JOSHUA TREE NATIONAL
PARK THROUGH 03Z. MODELS ALSO HOLD ON TO SOME BETTER CAPE OVER
HIGHER TERRAIN OF SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA...THOUGH PWAT IS LOWER THERE. ONLY
SLIGHT CHANCES ELSEWHERE. SLOW DEVELOPING CONVECTION OVER NORTHWEST
MEXICO IS ANTICIPATED TO SEND DEBRIS CLOUDS...AND POSSIBLY SOME
EMBEDDED LIGHT SHOWERS...OVER OUR AREA LATE TONIGHT AND INTO THE
MORNING FRIDAY AND THUS HELD ON TO SOME LOW END POPS. MODELS SHOW
DECREASED LOWER LEVEL MOISTURE TO VARYING DEGREES ON FRIDAY AND THUS
LESS CAPE. HOWEVER...THERE WILL STILL BE ENOUGH LINGERING LOWER LEVEL
MOISTURE FOR A SLIGHT CHANCE AT MOST LOWER LEVEL LOCATIONS.

TROUGHING OFF THE WEST COAST BEGINS TO TAKE HOLD SATURDAY BEGINNING AN
EASTWARD RETREAT OF MOISTURE AND THUS A DOWNWARD TREND OF POPS FOR
THE WEEKEND. THE RIDGE REBUILDS EARLY NEXT WEEK BUT MODELS ARE
RELUCTANT TO BRING SIGNIFICANT MOISTURE BACK. JUST ENOUGH MOISTURE
HANGS ON OVER SOUTH- CENTRAL ARIZONA FOR LINGERING POPS OVER SOUTH-
CENTRAL ARIZONA MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY BUT OVERALL A LOW GRADE
MONSOON SCENARIO.

&&

.AVIATION...
SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA INCLUDING KPHX...KIWA...AND
KSDL...

CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE REST OF THE NIGHTTIME HOURS IS
MINIMAL...NOT ZERO...BUT NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO MENTION ANY WEATHER OR
EVEN VCSH IN THE TAFS. WILL GO WITH FEW-SCT HIGH BASED CU AROUND 10K
AND SCT-BKN CIRRUS DECKS. WE ARE ONLY LOOKING AT SLIGHT CHANCES FOR
STORMS FRIDAY EVENING SO DO NOT EXPECT ANY WEATHER TO BE ADDED TO
THE TAFS FOR AT LEAST THE NEXT 18 HOURS. WINDS WILL BE ON THE LIGHT
SIDE AND FOLLOW NORMAL DIURNAL CONVECTIONS.

SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA AND SOUTHWEST ARIZONA INCLUDING KIPL AND
KBLH...

IT APPEARS THE THREAT FOR SHOWERS/STORMS OR EVEN STRONG OUTFLOWS IS
PRETTY MUCH OVER FOR THE REST OF TONIGHT...SO WE ARE LEFT WITH
MAINLY FEW-SCT MID AND UPPER LEVEL DEBRIS CLOUD DECKS THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON ON FRIDAY. WINDS WILL BE ON THE LIGHT SIDE THROUGH THE TAF
PERIOD....FAVORING THE SOUTH AT KBLH AND THE SOUTHEAST AT KIPL.

AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDED TAFS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...
MONSOONAL MOISTURE WILL SLOWLY BEGIN TO THIN ACROSS THE AREA...FIRST
ACROSS THE WESTERN FIRE DISTRICTS AND EVENTUALLY INTO THE ENTIRE
LOWER DESERT ELEVATIONS AND REGION BY EARLY NEXT WEEK. THIS WILL
RELEGATE STORM CHANCES BACK TOWARDS THE HIGHER TERRAIN AND FURTHER
TO THE EAST ACROSS AZ. THE SLIGHTLY DRIER AIRMASS AND BUILDING UPPER
RIDGE HEIGHTS WILL LEND THEMSELVES TOWARD WARMER SFC CONDITIONS...AT
OR ABOVE SEASONAL NORMALS. WINDS WILL FOLLOW FAMILIAR WARM SEASON
PATTERNS.

&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT CONDITIONS ACCORDING TO STANDARD
OPERATING PROCEDURES.

&&

.PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AZ...NONE.
CA...NONE.

&&

$$

VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/PHOENIX

DISCUSSION...CB
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...AJ
AVIATION...CB
FIRE WEATHER...NOLTE



000
FXUS65 KPSR 310345
AFDPSR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PHOENIX AZ
845 PM MST THU JUL 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED STORM ACTIVITY IS ANTICIPATED OVER ARIZONA AND
SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA THE REST OF THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING AND AGAIN
FRIDAY. A NOTABLE DOWNTREND IN MOISTURE FROM WEST TO EAST IS EXPECTED
OVER THE WEEKEND. THIS WILL KEEP STORM CHANCES LIMITED TO SOUTH-
CENTRAL ARIZONA WELL INTO NEXT WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION... IT WAS ANOTHER INTERESTING MONSOON EVENING ACROSS THE
WESTERN PORTION OF THE AREA...FROM YUMA/LA PAZ COUNTIES WESTWARD TO
JOSHUA TREE...AS SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND STORMS DEVELOPING
DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS...THEN STEADILY AND SLOWLY PROGRESSED
WESTWARD ALONG THE LEADING EDGE OF STRONG OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES.
OVERALL...DYNAMICS WERE SOMEWHAT MINIMAL TODAY AS AN INVERTED
TROF/VORT MAX WAS LOCATED ACROSS CENTRAL AZ AND THE LOWER DESERTS
WERE ON THE BACK SIDE OF THIS FEATURE AND UNDER A MORE SUBSIDENT
REGIME. AT LEAST...THIS WAS TRUE OVER SOUTH CENTRAL AZ WHERE FEW IF
ANY STORMS DEVELOPED THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING UNDER PARTLY SUNNY
SKIES. CAPE AND PWAT APPEARED TO BE HIGHER ACROSS THE WESTERN
DESERTS THIS EVENING AND THIS HELPED EXPLAIN THE MUCH HIGHER LEVELS
OF CONVECTION THAT OCCURRED. STILL...THE MOST LIKELY DRIVER FOR THE
WIDESPREAD CONVECTION WAS BOUNDARY INTERACTION...TYPICAL DURING THE
CENTRAL PORTION OF OUR MONSOON. SEVERAL SMALL STREAM FLOOD ADVISORIES
WERE ISSUED OVER THE COURSE OF THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING...WITH
THE MOST WIDESPREAD CONVECTION OVER CENTRAL LA PAZ AND MUCH OF
EASTERN RIVERSIDE COUNTIES. THE AREAS AROUND DESERT CENTER AND
QUARTZSITE WERE THE HARDEST HIT BY RAINFALL BUT NO REPORTS OF
SERIOUS FLASH FLOODING HAVE YET TO BE RECEIVED FOR THOSE AREAS.

AS OF 830 PM MOST OF THE STORMS HAD DISSIPATED ALTHOUGH ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE TO FIRE WELL TO THE SOUTHWEST OF THE GREATER
PHOENIX AREA...IN LOCALES SUCH AS SOUTH CENTRAL YUMA COUNTY AND NEAR
THE MARICOPA/PIMA COUNTY LINE. FOR THE REST OF TONIGHT...THERE WILL
BE A CONTINUED WEAK SOUTHERLY STEERING FLOW ACROSS THE AREA...AND WE
WILL BE BEHIND THE EXITING INVERTED TROF UNDER WEAK ANTICYCLONIC
FLOW ALOFT. THUS...EXPECT ONLY ISOLATED STORMS AT BEST OVER THE
LOWER DESERTS...WITH BETTER CHANCES OVER THE WESTERN DESERTS WHERE
MOISTURE AND CAPE REMAIN A BIT HIGHER. FORECASTS HAVE BEEN TWEAKED
TO REFLECT CURRENT SKY AND WEATHER TRENDS AND LOOK TO BE IN GOOD
SHAPE.

.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
STORM ACTIVITY OVER ARIZONA SO FAR HAS BEEN LIMITED IN AREA FOCUSING
INITIALLY OVER WESTERN YAVAPAI THEN SPREADING INTO MOHAVE AND LA PAZ
COUNTIES. THIS HAS BEEN AIDED BY A VORT MAX CENTERED OVER NORTHERN
ARIZONA. IT WILL MOVE SLOWLY NORTH AND NORTHWESTWARD WITH TIME. WITH
THAT TRAJECTORY IT WILL TEND TO HAVE A DECREASING IMPACT ON OUR
FORECAST AREA WITH TIME...ESPECIALLY BY LATE EVENING. OVER SOUTHEAST
CALIFORNIA...ACTIVITY HAS BEEN ISOLATED TO THE VICINITY OF 29 PALMS
AND JOSHUA TREE NATIONAL PARK. THIS IS CLOSE TO A SHORT WAVE ON THE
FAR NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF AN ELONGATED UPPER LOW CENTERED OFF THE
BAJA COAST. FOR OUR FORECAST AREA...ANTICIPATE CONTINUED DEVELOPMENT
THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON FOCUSING OVER OVER LA PAZ AND EASTERN
RIVERSIDE COUNTIES...INCLUDING JOSHUA TREE NATIONAL PARK...WHERE
CAPE IS BEST. FLASH FLOOD WATCH CONTINUES FOR JOSHUA TREE NATIONAL
PARK THROUGH 03Z. MODELS ALSO HOLD ON TO SOME BETTER CAPE OVER
HIGHER TERRAIN OF SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA...THOUGH PWAT IS LOWER THERE. ONLY
SLIGHT CHANCES ELSEWHERE. SLOW DEVELOPING CONVECTION OVER NORTHWEST
MEXICO IS ANTICIPATED TO SEND DEBRIS CLOUDS...AND POSSIBLY SOME
EMBEDDED LIGHT SHOWERS...OVER OUR AREA LATE TONIGHT AND INTO THE
MORNING FRIDAY AND THUS HELD ON TO SOME LOW END POPS. MODELS SHOW
DECREASED LOWER LEVEL MOISTURE TO VARYING DEGREES ON FRIDAY AND THUS
LESS CAPE. HOWEVER...THERE WILL STILL BE ENOUGH LINGERING LOWER LEVEL
MOISTURE FOR A SLIGHT CHANCE AT MOST LOWER LEVEL LOCATIONS.

TROUGHING OFF THE WEST COAST BEGINS TO TAKE HOLD SATURDAY BEGINNING AN
EASTWARD RETREAT OF MOISTURE AND THUS A DOWNWARD TREND OF POPS FOR
THE WEEKEND. THE RIDGE REBUILDS EARLY NEXT WEEK BUT MODELS ARE
RELUCTANT TO BRING SIGNIFICANT MOISTURE BACK. JUST ENOUGH MOISTURE
HANGS ON OVER SOUTH- CENTRAL ARIZONA FOR LINGERING POPS OVER SOUTH-
CENTRAL ARIZONA MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY BUT OVERALL A LOW GRADE
MONSOON SCENARIO.

&&

.AVIATION...
SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA INCLUDING KPHX...KIWA...AND
KSDL...

CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE REST OF THE NIGHTTIME HOURS IS
MINIMAL...NOT ZERO...BUT NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO MENTION ANY WEATHER OR
EVEN VCSH IN THE TAFS. WILL GO WITH FEW-SCT HIGH BASED CU AROUND 10K
AND SCT-BKN CIRRUS DECKS. WE ARE ONLY LOOKING AT SLIGHT CHANCES FOR
STORMS FRIDAY EVENING SO DO NOT EXPECT ANY WEATHER TO BE ADDED TO
THE TAFS FOR AT LEAST THE NEXT 18 HOURS. WINDS WILL BE ON THE LIGHT
SIDE AND FOLLOW NORMAL DIURNAL CONVECTIONS.

SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA AND SOUTHWEST ARIZONA INCLUDING KIPL AND
KBLH...

IT APPEARS THE THREAT FOR SHOWERS/STORMS OR EVEN STRONG OUTFLOWS IS
PRETTY MUCH OVER FOR THE REST OF TONIGHT...SO WE ARE LEFT WITH
MAINLY FEW-SCT MID AND UPPER LEVEL DEBRIS CLOUD DECKS THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON ON FRIDAY. WINDS WILL BE ON THE LIGHT SIDE THROUGH THE TAF
PERIOD....FAVORING THE SOUTH AT KBLH AND THE SOUTHEAST AT KIPL.

AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDED TAFS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...
MONSOONAL MOISTURE WILL SLOWLY BEGIN TO THIN ACROSS THE AREA...FIRST
ACROSS THE WESTERN FIRE DISTRICTS AND EVENTUALLY INTO THE ENTIRE
LOWER DESERT ELEVATIONS AND REGION BY EARLY NEXT WEEK. THIS WILL
RELEGATE STORM CHANCES BACK TOWARDS THE HIGHER TERRAIN AND FURTHER
TO THE EAST ACROSS AZ. THE SLIGHTLY DRIER AIRMASS AND BUILDING UPPER
RIDGE HEIGHTS WILL LEND THEMSELVES TOWARD WARMER SFC CONDITIONS...AT
OR ABOVE SEASONAL NORMALS. WINDS WILL FOLLOW FAMILIAR WARM SEASON
PATTERNS.

&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT CONDITIONS ACCORDING TO STANDARD
OPERATING PROCEDURES.

&&

.PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AZ...NONE.
CA...NONE.

&&

$$

VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/PHOENIX

DISCUSSION...CB
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...AJ
AVIATION...CB
FIRE WEATHER...NOLTE



000
FXUS65 KPSR 310345
AFDPSR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PHOENIX AZ
845 PM MST THU JUL 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED STORM ACTIVITY IS ANTICIPATED OVER ARIZONA AND
SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA THE REST OF THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING AND AGAIN
FRIDAY. A NOTABLE DOWNTREND IN MOISTURE FROM WEST TO EAST IS EXPECTED
OVER THE WEEKEND. THIS WILL KEEP STORM CHANCES LIMITED TO SOUTH-
CENTRAL ARIZONA WELL INTO NEXT WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION... IT WAS ANOTHER INTERESTING MONSOON EVENING ACROSS THE
WESTERN PORTION OF THE AREA...FROM YUMA/LA PAZ COUNTIES WESTWARD TO
JOSHUA TREE...AS SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND STORMS DEVELOPING
DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS...THEN STEADILY AND SLOWLY PROGRESSED
WESTWARD ALONG THE LEADING EDGE OF STRONG OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES.
OVERALL...DYNAMICS WERE SOMEWHAT MINIMAL TODAY AS AN INVERTED
TROF/VORT MAX WAS LOCATED ACROSS CENTRAL AZ AND THE LOWER DESERTS
WERE ON THE BACK SIDE OF THIS FEATURE AND UNDER A MORE SUBSIDENT
REGIME. AT LEAST...THIS WAS TRUE OVER SOUTH CENTRAL AZ WHERE FEW IF
ANY STORMS DEVELOPED THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING UNDER PARTLY SUNNY
SKIES. CAPE AND PWAT APPEARED TO BE HIGHER ACROSS THE WESTERN
DESERTS THIS EVENING AND THIS HELPED EXPLAIN THE MUCH HIGHER LEVELS
OF CONVECTION THAT OCCURRED. STILL...THE MOST LIKELY DRIVER FOR THE
WIDESPREAD CONVECTION WAS BOUNDARY INTERACTION...TYPICAL DURING THE
CENTRAL PORTION OF OUR MONSOON. SEVERAL SMALL STREAM FLOOD ADVISORIES
WERE ISSUED OVER THE COURSE OF THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING...WITH
THE MOST WIDESPREAD CONVECTION OVER CENTRAL LA PAZ AND MUCH OF
EASTERN RIVERSIDE COUNTIES. THE AREAS AROUND DESERT CENTER AND
QUARTZSITE WERE THE HARDEST HIT BY RAINFALL BUT NO REPORTS OF
SERIOUS FLASH FLOODING HAVE YET TO BE RECEIVED FOR THOSE AREAS.

AS OF 830 PM MOST OF THE STORMS HAD DISSIPATED ALTHOUGH ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE TO FIRE WELL TO THE SOUTHWEST OF THE GREATER
PHOENIX AREA...IN LOCALES SUCH AS SOUTH CENTRAL YUMA COUNTY AND NEAR
THE MARICOPA/PIMA COUNTY LINE. FOR THE REST OF TONIGHT...THERE WILL
BE A CONTINUED WEAK SOUTHERLY STEERING FLOW ACROSS THE AREA...AND WE
WILL BE BEHIND THE EXITING INVERTED TROF UNDER WEAK ANTICYCLONIC
FLOW ALOFT. THUS...EXPECT ONLY ISOLATED STORMS AT BEST OVER THE
LOWER DESERTS...WITH BETTER CHANCES OVER THE WESTERN DESERTS WHERE
MOISTURE AND CAPE REMAIN A BIT HIGHER. FORECASTS HAVE BEEN TWEAKED
TO REFLECT CURRENT SKY AND WEATHER TRENDS AND LOOK TO BE IN GOOD
SHAPE.

.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
STORM ACTIVITY OVER ARIZONA SO FAR HAS BEEN LIMITED IN AREA FOCUSING
INITIALLY OVER WESTERN YAVAPAI THEN SPREADING INTO MOHAVE AND LA PAZ
COUNTIES. THIS HAS BEEN AIDED BY A VORT MAX CENTERED OVER NORTHERN
ARIZONA. IT WILL MOVE SLOWLY NORTH AND NORTHWESTWARD WITH TIME. WITH
THAT TRAJECTORY IT WILL TEND TO HAVE A DECREASING IMPACT ON OUR
FORECAST AREA WITH TIME...ESPECIALLY BY LATE EVENING. OVER SOUTHEAST
CALIFORNIA...ACTIVITY HAS BEEN ISOLATED TO THE VICINITY OF 29 PALMS
AND JOSHUA TREE NATIONAL PARK. THIS IS CLOSE TO A SHORT WAVE ON THE
FAR NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF AN ELONGATED UPPER LOW CENTERED OFF THE
BAJA COAST. FOR OUR FORECAST AREA...ANTICIPATE CONTINUED DEVELOPMENT
THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON FOCUSING OVER OVER LA PAZ AND EASTERN
RIVERSIDE COUNTIES...INCLUDING JOSHUA TREE NATIONAL PARK...WHERE
CAPE IS BEST. FLASH FLOOD WATCH CONTINUES FOR JOSHUA TREE NATIONAL
PARK THROUGH 03Z. MODELS ALSO HOLD ON TO SOME BETTER CAPE OVER
HIGHER TERRAIN OF SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA...THOUGH PWAT IS LOWER THERE. ONLY
SLIGHT CHANCES ELSEWHERE. SLOW DEVELOPING CONVECTION OVER NORTHWEST
MEXICO IS ANTICIPATED TO SEND DEBRIS CLOUDS...AND POSSIBLY SOME
EMBEDDED LIGHT SHOWERS...OVER OUR AREA LATE TONIGHT AND INTO THE
MORNING FRIDAY AND THUS HELD ON TO SOME LOW END POPS. MODELS SHOW
DECREASED LOWER LEVEL MOISTURE TO VARYING DEGREES ON FRIDAY AND THUS
LESS CAPE. HOWEVER...THERE WILL STILL BE ENOUGH LINGERING LOWER LEVEL
MOISTURE FOR A SLIGHT CHANCE AT MOST LOWER LEVEL LOCATIONS.

TROUGHING OFF THE WEST COAST BEGINS TO TAKE HOLD SATURDAY BEGINNING AN
EASTWARD RETREAT OF MOISTURE AND THUS A DOWNWARD TREND OF POPS FOR
THE WEEKEND. THE RIDGE REBUILDS EARLY NEXT WEEK BUT MODELS ARE
RELUCTANT TO BRING SIGNIFICANT MOISTURE BACK. JUST ENOUGH MOISTURE
HANGS ON OVER SOUTH- CENTRAL ARIZONA FOR LINGERING POPS OVER SOUTH-
CENTRAL ARIZONA MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY BUT OVERALL A LOW GRADE
MONSOON SCENARIO.

&&

.AVIATION...
SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA INCLUDING KPHX...KIWA...AND
KSDL...

CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE REST OF THE NIGHTTIME HOURS IS
MINIMAL...NOT ZERO...BUT NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO MENTION ANY WEATHER OR
EVEN VCSH IN THE TAFS. WILL GO WITH FEW-SCT HIGH BASED CU AROUND 10K
AND SCT-BKN CIRRUS DECKS. WE ARE ONLY LOOKING AT SLIGHT CHANCES FOR
STORMS FRIDAY EVENING SO DO NOT EXPECT ANY WEATHER TO BE ADDED TO
THE TAFS FOR AT LEAST THE NEXT 18 HOURS. WINDS WILL BE ON THE LIGHT
SIDE AND FOLLOW NORMAL DIURNAL CONVECTIONS.

SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA AND SOUTHWEST ARIZONA INCLUDING KIPL AND
KBLH...

IT APPEARS THE THREAT FOR SHOWERS/STORMS OR EVEN STRONG OUTFLOWS IS
PRETTY MUCH OVER FOR THE REST OF TONIGHT...SO WE ARE LEFT WITH
MAINLY FEW-SCT MID AND UPPER LEVEL DEBRIS CLOUD DECKS THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON ON FRIDAY. WINDS WILL BE ON THE LIGHT SIDE THROUGH THE TAF
PERIOD....FAVORING THE SOUTH AT KBLH AND THE SOUTHEAST AT KIPL.

AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDED TAFS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...
MONSOONAL MOISTURE WILL SLOWLY BEGIN TO THIN ACROSS THE AREA...FIRST
ACROSS THE WESTERN FIRE DISTRICTS AND EVENTUALLY INTO THE ENTIRE
LOWER DESERT ELEVATIONS AND REGION BY EARLY NEXT WEEK. THIS WILL
RELEGATE STORM CHANCES BACK TOWARDS THE HIGHER TERRAIN AND FURTHER
TO THE EAST ACROSS AZ. THE SLIGHTLY DRIER AIRMASS AND BUILDING UPPER
RIDGE HEIGHTS WILL LEND THEMSELVES TOWARD WARMER SFC CONDITIONS...AT
OR ABOVE SEASONAL NORMALS. WINDS WILL FOLLOW FAMILIAR WARM SEASON
PATTERNS.

&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT CONDITIONS ACCORDING TO STANDARD
OPERATING PROCEDURES.

&&

.PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AZ...NONE.
CA...NONE.

&&

$$

VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/PHOENIX

DISCUSSION...CB
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...AJ
AVIATION...CB
FIRE WEATHER...NOLTE



000
FXUS65 KPSR 310345
AFDPSR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PHOENIX AZ
845 PM MST THU JUL 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED STORM ACTIVITY IS ANTICIPATED OVER ARIZONA AND
SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA THE REST OF THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING AND AGAIN
FRIDAY. A NOTABLE DOWNTREND IN MOISTURE FROM WEST TO EAST IS EXPECTED
OVER THE WEEKEND. THIS WILL KEEP STORM CHANCES LIMITED TO SOUTH-
CENTRAL ARIZONA WELL INTO NEXT WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION... IT WAS ANOTHER INTERESTING MONSOON EVENING ACROSS THE
WESTERN PORTION OF THE AREA...FROM YUMA/LA PAZ COUNTIES WESTWARD TO
JOSHUA TREE...AS SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND STORMS DEVELOPING
DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS...THEN STEADILY AND SLOWLY PROGRESSED
WESTWARD ALONG THE LEADING EDGE OF STRONG OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES.
OVERALL...DYNAMICS WERE SOMEWHAT MINIMAL TODAY AS AN INVERTED
TROF/VORT MAX WAS LOCATED ACROSS CENTRAL AZ AND THE LOWER DESERTS
WERE ON THE BACK SIDE OF THIS FEATURE AND UNDER A MORE SUBSIDENT
REGIME. AT LEAST...THIS WAS TRUE OVER SOUTH CENTRAL AZ WHERE FEW IF
ANY STORMS DEVELOPED THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING UNDER PARTLY SUNNY
SKIES. CAPE AND PWAT APPEARED TO BE HIGHER ACROSS THE WESTERN
DESERTS THIS EVENING AND THIS HELPED EXPLAIN THE MUCH HIGHER LEVELS
OF CONVECTION THAT OCCURRED. STILL...THE MOST LIKELY DRIVER FOR THE
WIDESPREAD CONVECTION WAS BOUNDARY INTERACTION...TYPICAL DURING THE
CENTRAL PORTION OF OUR MONSOON. SEVERAL SMALL STREAM FLOOD ADVISORIES
WERE ISSUED OVER THE COURSE OF THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING...WITH
THE MOST WIDESPREAD CONVECTION OVER CENTRAL LA PAZ AND MUCH OF
EASTERN RIVERSIDE COUNTIES. THE AREAS AROUND DESERT CENTER AND
QUARTZSITE WERE THE HARDEST HIT BY RAINFALL BUT NO REPORTS OF
SERIOUS FLASH FLOODING HAVE YET TO BE RECEIVED FOR THOSE AREAS.

AS OF 830 PM MOST OF THE STORMS HAD DISSIPATED ALTHOUGH ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE TO FIRE WELL TO THE SOUTHWEST OF THE GREATER
PHOENIX AREA...IN LOCALES SUCH AS SOUTH CENTRAL YUMA COUNTY AND NEAR
THE MARICOPA/PIMA COUNTY LINE. FOR THE REST OF TONIGHT...THERE WILL
BE A CONTINUED WEAK SOUTHERLY STEERING FLOW ACROSS THE AREA...AND WE
WILL BE BEHIND THE EXITING INVERTED TROF UNDER WEAK ANTICYCLONIC
FLOW ALOFT. THUS...EXPECT ONLY ISOLATED STORMS AT BEST OVER THE
LOWER DESERTS...WITH BETTER CHANCES OVER THE WESTERN DESERTS WHERE
MOISTURE AND CAPE REMAIN A BIT HIGHER. FORECASTS HAVE BEEN TWEAKED
TO REFLECT CURRENT SKY AND WEATHER TRENDS AND LOOK TO BE IN GOOD
SHAPE.

.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
STORM ACTIVITY OVER ARIZONA SO FAR HAS BEEN LIMITED IN AREA FOCUSING
INITIALLY OVER WESTERN YAVAPAI THEN SPREADING INTO MOHAVE AND LA PAZ
COUNTIES. THIS HAS BEEN AIDED BY A VORT MAX CENTERED OVER NORTHERN
ARIZONA. IT WILL MOVE SLOWLY NORTH AND NORTHWESTWARD WITH TIME. WITH
THAT TRAJECTORY IT WILL TEND TO HAVE A DECREASING IMPACT ON OUR
FORECAST AREA WITH TIME...ESPECIALLY BY LATE EVENING. OVER SOUTHEAST
CALIFORNIA...ACTIVITY HAS BEEN ISOLATED TO THE VICINITY OF 29 PALMS
AND JOSHUA TREE NATIONAL PARK. THIS IS CLOSE TO A SHORT WAVE ON THE
FAR NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF AN ELONGATED UPPER LOW CENTERED OFF THE
BAJA COAST. FOR OUR FORECAST AREA...ANTICIPATE CONTINUED DEVELOPMENT
THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON FOCUSING OVER OVER LA PAZ AND EASTERN
RIVERSIDE COUNTIES...INCLUDING JOSHUA TREE NATIONAL PARK...WHERE
CAPE IS BEST. FLASH FLOOD WATCH CONTINUES FOR JOSHUA TREE NATIONAL
PARK THROUGH 03Z. MODELS ALSO HOLD ON TO SOME BETTER CAPE OVER
HIGHER TERRAIN OF SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA...THOUGH PWAT IS LOWER THERE. ONLY
SLIGHT CHANCES ELSEWHERE. SLOW DEVELOPING CONVECTION OVER NORTHWEST
MEXICO IS ANTICIPATED TO SEND DEBRIS CLOUDS...AND POSSIBLY SOME
EMBEDDED LIGHT SHOWERS...OVER OUR AREA LATE TONIGHT AND INTO THE
MORNING FRIDAY AND THUS HELD ON TO SOME LOW END POPS. MODELS SHOW
DECREASED LOWER LEVEL MOISTURE TO VARYING DEGREES ON FRIDAY AND THUS
LESS CAPE. HOWEVER...THERE WILL STILL BE ENOUGH LINGERING LOWER LEVEL
MOISTURE FOR A SLIGHT CHANCE AT MOST LOWER LEVEL LOCATIONS.

TROUGHING OFF THE WEST COAST BEGINS TO TAKE HOLD SATURDAY BEGINNING AN
EASTWARD RETREAT OF MOISTURE AND THUS A DOWNWARD TREND OF POPS FOR
THE WEEKEND. THE RIDGE REBUILDS EARLY NEXT WEEK BUT MODELS ARE
RELUCTANT TO BRING SIGNIFICANT MOISTURE BACK. JUST ENOUGH MOISTURE
HANGS ON OVER SOUTH- CENTRAL ARIZONA FOR LINGERING POPS OVER SOUTH-
CENTRAL ARIZONA MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY BUT OVERALL A LOW GRADE
MONSOON SCENARIO.

&&

.AVIATION...
SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA INCLUDING KPHX...KIWA...AND
KSDL...

CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE REST OF THE NIGHTTIME HOURS IS
MINIMAL...NOT ZERO...BUT NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO MENTION ANY WEATHER OR
EVEN VCSH IN THE TAFS. WILL GO WITH FEW-SCT HIGH BASED CU AROUND 10K
AND SCT-BKN CIRRUS DECKS. WE ARE ONLY LOOKING AT SLIGHT CHANCES FOR
STORMS FRIDAY EVENING SO DO NOT EXPECT ANY WEATHER TO BE ADDED TO
THE TAFS FOR AT LEAST THE NEXT 18 HOURS. WINDS WILL BE ON THE LIGHT
SIDE AND FOLLOW NORMAL DIURNAL CONVECTIONS.

SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA AND SOUTHWEST ARIZONA INCLUDING KIPL AND
KBLH...

IT APPEARS THE THREAT FOR SHOWERS/STORMS OR EVEN STRONG OUTFLOWS IS
PRETTY MUCH OVER FOR THE REST OF TONIGHT...SO WE ARE LEFT WITH
MAINLY FEW-SCT MID AND UPPER LEVEL DEBRIS CLOUD DECKS THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON ON FRIDAY. WINDS WILL BE ON THE LIGHT SIDE THROUGH THE TAF
PERIOD....FAVORING THE SOUTH AT KBLH AND THE SOUTHEAST AT KIPL.

AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDED TAFS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...
MONSOONAL MOISTURE WILL SLOWLY BEGIN TO THIN ACROSS THE AREA...FIRST
ACROSS THE WESTERN FIRE DISTRICTS AND EVENTUALLY INTO THE ENTIRE
LOWER DESERT ELEVATIONS AND REGION BY EARLY NEXT WEEK. THIS WILL
RELEGATE STORM CHANCES BACK TOWARDS THE HIGHER TERRAIN AND FURTHER
TO THE EAST ACROSS AZ. THE SLIGHTLY DRIER AIRMASS AND BUILDING UPPER
RIDGE HEIGHTS WILL LEND THEMSELVES TOWARD WARMER SFC CONDITIONS...AT
OR ABOVE SEASONAL NORMALS. WINDS WILL FOLLOW FAMILIAR WARM SEASON
PATTERNS.

&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT CONDITIONS ACCORDING TO STANDARD
OPERATING PROCEDURES.

&&

.PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AZ...NONE.
CA...NONE.

&&

$$

VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/PHOENIX

DISCUSSION...CB
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...AJ
AVIATION...CB
FIRE WEATHER...NOLTE



000
FXUS65 KFGZ 302236
AFDFGZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ
336 PM MST THU JUL 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED
ACROSS NORTHERN ARIZONA SATURDAY...WITH THE MAJORITY OF
PRECIPITATION DURING THE AFTERNOONS AND EVENINGS. DRIER SOUTHWEST
FLOW IS EXPECTED ACROSS WESTERN ARIZONA STARTING SUNDAY AND SHOULD
LEAD TO LESS STORM COVERAGE IN THIS AREA.

&&

.DISCUSSION...VERY MOIST CONDITIONS ACROSS NORTHERN ARIZONA THIS
AFTERNOON WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. CLOUD COVER
DELAYED CONVECTION OVER AREAS NORTH OF INTERSTATE 40 UNTIL THIS
AFTERNOON. A WEAK LOW PRESSURE CENTER OVER NORTHERN ARIZONA THIS
AFTERNOON IS CAUSING STORMS WEST OF I-17 AND NORTH OF I-40 TO MOVE
GENERALLY WEST. STORMS SOUTHEAST OF FLAGSTAFF ARE GENERALLY MOVING
NORTH. STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO LAST WELL INTO THE EVENING THEN
DECREASE AFTER DARK.

THE MOIST MONSOONAL FLOW WILL REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS NORTHERN
ARIZONA THROUGH SATURDAY....AND PRECIP CHANCES ARE ABOVE
CLIMATOLOGY.

FROM SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...MODELS ARE SHOWING DRIER
SOUTHWEST FLOW TO RETURN TO WESTERN ARIZONA ON SUNDAY...PUSHING
THE MONSOON PLUME EASTWARD. BY MONDAY...MOST OF THE MOISTURE WILL
BE EAST OF I-17 TO PAGE. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED STORM ACTIVITY TO
CONTINUE ACROSS NAVAJO AND APACHE COUNTIES THOUGH WEDNESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 00Z PACKAGE...ISOLATED TO SCATTERED -SHRA/TSRA
ACROSS NORTHERN ARIZONA THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. LOCALLY HEAVY
RAIN WITH MVFR/IFR POSSIBLE IN HEAVIER SHOWERS. STORMS WILL TO
DECREASE AFT 03Z FRI. AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDMENTS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...SCATTERED AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWERS AND STORMS
ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH SATURDAY. LIGHTNING...LOCALLY HEAVY
RAIN...AND SMALL HAIL ARE THE PRIMARY EXPECTED HAZARDS.

.SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...THE MONSOON WEATHER PATTERN IS EXPECTED TO
PERSIST THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH DAILY THUNDERSTORM CHANCES
CONTINUING.  THERE IS A POSSIBILITY OF A DOWNTURN IN STORM ACTIVITY
EARLY NEXT WEEK ACROSS WESTERN ARIZONA AS DRIER AIR MOVES IN FROM
&&

.FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC...MAS
AVIATION...MAS
FIRE WEATHER...MAS


FOR NORTHERN ARIZONA WEATHER INFORMATION VISIT
WEATHER.GOV/FLAGSTAFF



000
FXUS65 KTWC 302221
AFDTWC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ
321 PM MST THU JUL 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...STORM COVERAGE WILL BE LESS TODAY...OTHERWISE WE WILL
CONTINUE TO HAVE ENOUGH MOISTURE FOR A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS FOR MUCH OF SOUTHEAST ARIZONA INTO NEXT WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...WATER VAPOR IMAGERY...30/12Z UPPER-AIR PLOTS AND
RECENT MODEL DATA SHOW A RIDGE CENTERED OVER THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS...WITH THE PESKY UPPER LOW STILL OFF THE WEST COAST OF THE
BAJA PENINSULA. THIS SYSTEM WILL BECOME ABSORBED BY THE MAIN PACIFIC
LOW WHICH IS WELL TO THE WEST OF THE SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA/NORTHERN
BAJA COASTS. A WEAK IMPULSE IS CURRENTLY LIFTING TO THE NORTH
NORTHEAST ACROSS THE FOUR CORNERS REGION. AS A RESULT...VISIBLE AND
IR SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS EXTENSIVE CLOUDINESS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS
FEATURE THAT EXTEND FROM SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA...ACROSS NORTHERN
ARIZONA AND INTO MUCH OF WESTERN NEW MEXICO. CLOSER TO HOME...
VISIBLE IMAGERY SHOWS CUMULUS DEVELOPMENT OVER MAINLY MOUNTAIN TOPS.
A FEW SHOWERS AND STORMS STRUGGLING TO DEVELOP WITH ONLY ISOLATED
MOUNTAIN STORMS AT THIS TIME. THAT SAID...I LOWERED THE POP FORECAST
CONSIDERABLY TO ACCOUNT FOR DRIER AND MORE STABLE AIRMASS.

THIS MORNINGS SOUNDING WAS MUCH DRIER COMPARED TO YESTERDAY
MORNING...WITH THE PW DOWN TO 1.25 INCHES COMPARED TO WEDNESDAY
MORNINGS 1.62 INCHES. VARIOUS SOURCES OF PW SUGGEST THAT CURRENT
READINGS RANGE FROM AROUND 1.1 - 1.3 INCHES AND MAY DROP EVEN LOWER
BEFORE ALL IS SAID AND DONE. DEWPOINT TEMPERATURES CURRENTLY RANGE
FROM THE MID 50S TO THE LOWER 60S...WHICH IS ABOUT 3 TO 5 DEGS
COOLER/DRIER THAN THIS TIME YESTERDAY.

EVEN THOUGH WE ARE DRIER THAN THE PAST 12 TO 24 HOURS...MODELS SHOW
PW`S INCREASING FRIDAY INTO THE 1.5 - 1.7 INCH RANGE AS A WEAK
DISTURBANCE MOVES UP FROM THE SOUTHEAST LATE IN THE DAY AND
POTENTIALLY ENHANCES ACTIVITY. BY SATURDAY A WEAK IMPULSE TO OUR
WEST MOVES TO THE NORTH ACROSS WESTERN ARIZONA WITH PW`S AROUND 1.4 -
1.6 INCHES. SO...I MAINTAIN A LOW GRADE MONSOON FORECAST WITH LOW
END SCATTERED ACTIVITY FOR MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA FRIDAY AND
MOSTLY CENTRAL AND EASTERN AREAS FOR SATURDAY.

BY SUNDAY THE MODELS SHOW HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED EITHER JUST TO OUR
EAST OR SOUTH (GFS HAS IT OVER NEW MEXICO AND ECMWF EXTENDING FROM
EASTERN PACIFIC ACROSS CENTRAL BAJA AND NORTHERN SONORA). BOTH
MODELS SHOW A DRYING TREND WITH PW`S FROM THE GFS DOWN TO ABOUT 1.2
INCHES. SO...I HAVE THE BEST THREAT FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
BETWEEN TUCSON AND THE NEW MEXICO BORDER.

FROM MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY THE HIGH WILL MEANDER ACROSS THE DESERT
SOUTHWEST IN SOME FORM OR FASHION. ECMWF HAS BEEN THE DRIER MODEL
BETWEEN THE GFS AND ECMWF. FOR NOW I CONTINUE WITH A FORECAST ON
MONDAY THAT IS SIMILAR TO MONDAY...BUT THEN EACH DAY THEREAFTER
SHOULD BE A STANDARD LOW GRADE MONSOON FORECAST...WITH THE BEST
THREAT BETWEEN NOGALES AND DOUGLAS AS WELL AS THE MOUNTAIN TOPS.

FOR TUCSON...HIGH TEMPS WILL BE SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY AND 4 TO 6 DEGS ABOVE NORMAL SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...
ALTHOUGH THE WARMEST DAY SHOULD BE TUESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...VALID THRU 31/23Z.
FEW-SCT CLOUDS AT 7-10K FT AGL AND SCT CLOUDS ABOVE 20K FT AGL THRU
31/04Z...THEN DECREASING CLOUDS...WITH A FEW CLOUDS AT 8-12K FT AGL
BY 31/09Z. SCT-BKN CLOUDS AT 6-9K FT AGL AND BKN CLOUDS AT 10-14K FT
AGL AFT 31/19Z. ISOLD -SHRA/-TSRA OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN THRU
31/03Z...WITH SCT SHRA/TSRA DEVELOPING AFT 31/20Z. BRIEF WIND GUSTS
TO NEAR 35 KTS POSSIBLE IN AND AROUND THE STRONGER TSRA. OUTSIDE OF
STORM INFLUENCES...SFC WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE LESS THAN 12 KTS WITH
A FEW HIGHER GUSTS IN THE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING HOURS. AVIATION
DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR TAF AMENDMENTS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL OCCUR MAINLY
ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN THROUGH THIS EVENING BEFORE DIMINISHING.
DRYING IS THEN EXPECTED ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...WITH ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUING OVER EASTERN AREAS. STRONG OUTFLOW WINDS
WILL BE POSSIBLE NEAR THUNDERSTORMS. OTHERWISE...20-FT WINDS WILL
GENERALLY BE TERRAIN DRIVEN AND LESS THAN 15 MPH...WITH SOME
AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING BREEZINESS DUE TO THE STRONG DAYTIME
HEATING.

&&

.TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC...MOLLERE
AVIATION/FIRE WEATHER...ZELL

VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...YOUTUBE...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/TUCSON



000
FXUS65 KTWC 302221
AFDTWC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ
321 PM MST THU JUL 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...STORM COVERAGE WILL BE LESS TODAY...OTHERWISE WE WILL
CONTINUE TO HAVE ENOUGH MOISTURE FOR A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS FOR MUCH OF SOUTHEAST ARIZONA INTO NEXT WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...WATER VAPOR IMAGERY...30/12Z UPPER-AIR PLOTS AND
RECENT MODEL DATA SHOW A RIDGE CENTERED OVER THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS...WITH THE PESKY UPPER LOW STILL OFF THE WEST COAST OF THE
BAJA PENINSULA. THIS SYSTEM WILL BECOME ABSORBED BY THE MAIN PACIFIC
LOW WHICH IS WELL TO THE WEST OF THE SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA/NORTHERN
BAJA COASTS. A WEAK IMPULSE IS CURRENTLY LIFTING TO THE NORTH
NORTHEAST ACROSS THE FOUR CORNERS REGION. AS A RESULT...VISIBLE AND
IR SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS EXTENSIVE CLOUDINESS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS
FEATURE THAT EXTEND FROM SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA...ACROSS NORTHERN
ARIZONA AND INTO MUCH OF WESTERN NEW MEXICO. CLOSER TO HOME...
VISIBLE IMAGERY SHOWS CUMULUS DEVELOPMENT OVER MAINLY MOUNTAIN TOPS.
A FEW SHOWERS AND STORMS STRUGGLING TO DEVELOP WITH ONLY ISOLATED
MOUNTAIN STORMS AT THIS TIME. THAT SAID...I LOWERED THE POP FORECAST
CONSIDERABLY TO ACCOUNT FOR DRIER AND MORE STABLE AIRMASS.

THIS MORNINGS SOUNDING WAS MUCH DRIER COMPARED TO YESTERDAY
MORNING...WITH THE PW DOWN TO 1.25 INCHES COMPARED TO WEDNESDAY
MORNINGS 1.62 INCHES. VARIOUS SOURCES OF PW SUGGEST THAT CURRENT
READINGS RANGE FROM AROUND 1.1 - 1.3 INCHES AND MAY DROP EVEN LOWER
BEFORE ALL IS SAID AND DONE. DEWPOINT TEMPERATURES CURRENTLY RANGE
FROM THE MID 50S TO THE LOWER 60S...WHICH IS ABOUT 3 TO 5 DEGS
COOLER/DRIER THAN THIS TIME YESTERDAY.

EVEN THOUGH WE ARE DRIER THAN THE PAST 12 TO 24 HOURS...MODELS SHOW
PW`S INCREASING FRIDAY INTO THE 1.5 - 1.7 INCH RANGE AS A WEAK
DISTURBANCE MOVES UP FROM THE SOUTHEAST LATE IN THE DAY AND
POTENTIALLY ENHANCES ACTIVITY. BY SATURDAY A WEAK IMPULSE TO OUR
WEST MOVES TO THE NORTH ACROSS WESTERN ARIZONA WITH PW`S AROUND 1.4 -
1.6 INCHES. SO...I MAINTAIN A LOW GRADE MONSOON FORECAST WITH LOW
END SCATTERED ACTIVITY FOR MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA FRIDAY AND
MOSTLY CENTRAL AND EASTERN AREAS FOR SATURDAY.

BY SUNDAY THE MODELS SHOW HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED EITHER JUST TO OUR
EAST OR SOUTH (GFS HAS IT OVER NEW MEXICO AND ECMWF EXTENDING FROM
EASTERN PACIFIC ACROSS CENTRAL BAJA AND NORTHERN SONORA). BOTH
MODELS SHOW A DRYING TREND WITH PW`S FROM THE GFS DOWN TO ABOUT 1.2
INCHES. SO...I HAVE THE BEST THREAT FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
BETWEEN TUCSON AND THE NEW MEXICO BORDER.

FROM MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY THE HIGH WILL MEANDER ACROSS THE DESERT
SOUTHWEST IN SOME FORM OR FASHION. ECMWF HAS BEEN THE DRIER MODEL
BETWEEN THE GFS AND ECMWF. FOR NOW I CONTINUE WITH A FORECAST ON
MONDAY THAT IS SIMILAR TO MONDAY...BUT THEN EACH DAY THEREAFTER
SHOULD BE A STANDARD LOW GRADE MONSOON FORECAST...WITH THE BEST
THREAT BETWEEN NOGALES AND DOUGLAS AS WELL AS THE MOUNTAIN TOPS.

FOR TUCSON...HIGH TEMPS WILL BE SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY AND 4 TO 6 DEGS ABOVE NORMAL SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...
ALTHOUGH THE WARMEST DAY SHOULD BE TUESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...VALID THRU 31/23Z.
FEW-SCT CLOUDS AT 7-10K FT AGL AND SCT CLOUDS ABOVE 20K FT AGL THRU
31/04Z...THEN DECREASING CLOUDS...WITH A FEW CLOUDS AT 8-12K FT AGL
BY 31/09Z. SCT-BKN CLOUDS AT 6-9K FT AGL AND BKN CLOUDS AT 10-14K FT
AGL AFT 31/19Z. ISOLD -SHRA/-TSRA OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN THRU
31/03Z...WITH SCT SHRA/TSRA DEVELOPING AFT 31/20Z. BRIEF WIND GUSTS
TO NEAR 35 KTS POSSIBLE IN AND AROUND THE STRONGER TSRA. OUTSIDE OF
STORM INFLUENCES...SFC WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE LESS THAN 12 KTS WITH
A FEW HIGHER GUSTS IN THE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING HOURS. AVIATION
DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR TAF AMENDMENTS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL OCCUR MAINLY
ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN THROUGH THIS EVENING BEFORE DIMINISHING.
DRYING IS THEN EXPECTED ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...WITH ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUING OVER EASTERN AREAS. STRONG OUTFLOW WINDS
WILL BE POSSIBLE NEAR THUNDERSTORMS. OTHERWISE...20-FT WINDS WILL
GENERALLY BE TERRAIN DRIVEN AND LESS THAN 15 MPH...WITH SOME
AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING BREEZINESS DUE TO THE STRONG DAYTIME
HEATING.

&&

.TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC...MOLLERE
AVIATION/FIRE WEATHER...ZELL

VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...YOUTUBE...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/TUCSON



000
FXUS65 KTWC 302221
AFDTWC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ
321 PM MST THU JUL 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...STORM COVERAGE WILL BE LESS TODAY...OTHERWISE WE WILL
CONTINUE TO HAVE ENOUGH MOISTURE FOR A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS FOR MUCH OF SOUTHEAST ARIZONA INTO NEXT WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...WATER VAPOR IMAGERY...30/12Z UPPER-AIR PLOTS AND
RECENT MODEL DATA SHOW A RIDGE CENTERED OVER THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS...WITH THE PESKY UPPER LOW STILL OFF THE WEST COAST OF THE
BAJA PENINSULA. THIS SYSTEM WILL BECOME ABSORBED BY THE MAIN PACIFIC
LOW WHICH IS WELL TO THE WEST OF THE SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA/NORTHERN
BAJA COASTS. A WEAK IMPULSE IS CURRENTLY LIFTING TO THE NORTH
NORTHEAST ACROSS THE FOUR CORNERS REGION. AS A RESULT...VISIBLE AND
IR SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS EXTENSIVE CLOUDINESS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS
FEATURE THAT EXTEND FROM SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA...ACROSS NORTHERN
ARIZONA AND INTO MUCH OF WESTERN NEW MEXICO. CLOSER TO HOME...
VISIBLE IMAGERY SHOWS CUMULUS DEVELOPMENT OVER MAINLY MOUNTAIN TOPS.
A FEW SHOWERS AND STORMS STRUGGLING TO DEVELOP WITH ONLY ISOLATED
MOUNTAIN STORMS AT THIS TIME. THAT SAID...I LOWERED THE POP FORECAST
CONSIDERABLY TO ACCOUNT FOR DRIER AND MORE STABLE AIRMASS.

THIS MORNINGS SOUNDING WAS MUCH DRIER COMPARED TO YESTERDAY
MORNING...WITH THE PW DOWN TO 1.25 INCHES COMPARED TO WEDNESDAY
MORNINGS 1.62 INCHES. VARIOUS SOURCES OF PW SUGGEST THAT CURRENT
READINGS RANGE FROM AROUND 1.1 - 1.3 INCHES AND MAY DROP EVEN LOWER
BEFORE ALL IS SAID AND DONE. DEWPOINT TEMPERATURES CURRENTLY RANGE
FROM THE MID 50S TO THE LOWER 60S...WHICH IS ABOUT 3 TO 5 DEGS
COOLER/DRIER THAN THIS TIME YESTERDAY.

EVEN THOUGH WE ARE DRIER THAN THE PAST 12 TO 24 HOURS...MODELS SHOW
PW`S INCREASING FRIDAY INTO THE 1.5 - 1.7 INCH RANGE AS A WEAK
DISTURBANCE MOVES UP FROM THE SOUTHEAST LATE IN THE DAY AND
POTENTIALLY ENHANCES ACTIVITY. BY SATURDAY A WEAK IMPULSE TO OUR
WEST MOVES TO THE NORTH ACROSS WESTERN ARIZONA WITH PW`S AROUND 1.4 -
1.6 INCHES. SO...I MAINTAIN A LOW GRADE MONSOON FORECAST WITH LOW
END SCATTERED ACTIVITY FOR MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA FRIDAY AND
MOSTLY CENTRAL AND EASTERN AREAS FOR SATURDAY.

BY SUNDAY THE MODELS SHOW HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED EITHER JUST TO OUR
EAST OR SOUTH (GFS HAS IT OVER NEW MEXICO AND ECMWF EXTENDING FROM
EASTERN PACIFIC ACROSS CENTRAL BAJA AND NORTHERN SONORA). BOTH
MODELS SHOW A DRYING TREND WITH PW`S FROM THE GFS DOWN TO ABOUT 1.2
INCHES. SO...I HAVE THE BEST THREAT FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
BETWEEN TUCSON AND THE NEW MEXICO BORDER.

FROM MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY THE HIGH WILL MEANDER ACROSS THE DESERT
SOUTHWEST IN SOME FORM OR FASHION. ECMWF HAS BEEN THE DRIER MODEL
BETWEEN THE GFS AND ECMWF. FOR NOW I CONTINUE WITH A FORECAST ON
MONDAY THAT IS SIMILAR TO MONDAY...BUT THEN EACH DAY THEREAFTER
SHOULD BE A STANDARD LOW GRADE MONSOON FORECAST...WITH THE BEST
THREAT BETWEEN NOGALES AND DOUGLAS AS WELL AS THE MOUNTAIN TOPS.

FOR TUCSON...HIGH TEMPS WILL BE SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY AND 4 TO 6 DEGS ABOVE NORMAL SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...
ALTHOUGH THE WARMEST DAY SHOULD BE TUESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...VALID THRU 31/23Z.
FEW-SCT CLOUDS AT 7-10K FT AGL AND SCT CLOUDS ABOVE 20K FT AGL THRU
31/04Z...THEN DECREASING CLOUDS...WITH A FEW CLOUDS AT 8-12K FT AGL
BY 31/09Z. SCT-BKN CLOUDS AT 6-9K FT AGL AND BKN CLOUDS AT 10-14K FT
AGL AFT 31/19Z. ISOLD -SHRA/-TSRA OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN THRU
31/03Z...WITH SCT SHRA/TSRA DEVELOPING AFT 31/20Z. BRIEF WIND GUSTS
TO NEAR 35 KTS POSSIBLE IN AND AROUND THE STRONGER TSRA. OUTSIDE OF
STORM INFLUENCES...SFC WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE LESS THAN 12 KTS WITH
A FEW HIGHER GUSTS IN THE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING HOURS. AVIATION
DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR TAF AMENDMENTS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL OCCUR MAINLY
ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN THROUGH THIS EVENING BEFORE DIMINISHING.
DRYING IS THEN EXPECTED ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...WITH ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUING OVER EASTERN AREAS. STRONG OUTFLOW WINDS
WILL BE POSSIBLE NEAR THUNDERSTORMS. OTHERWISE...20-FT WINDS WILL
GENERALLY BE TERRAIN DRIVEN AND LESS THAN 15 MPH...WITH SOME
AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING BREEZINESS DUE TO THE STRONG DAYTIME
HEATING.

&&

.TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC...MOLLERE
AVIATION/FIRE WEATHER...ZELL

VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...YOUTUBE...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/TUCSON



000
FXUS65 KTWC 302221
AFDTWC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ
321 PM MST THU JUL 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...STORM COVERAGE WILL BE LESS TODAY...OTHERWISE WE WILL
CONTINUE TO HAVE ENOUGH MOISTURE FOR A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS FOR MUCH OF SOUTHEAST ARIZONA INTO NEXT WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...WATER VAPOR IMAGERY...30/12Z UPPER-AIR PLOTS AND
RECENT MODEL DATA SHOW A RIDGE CENTERED OVER THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS...WITH THE PESKY UPPER LOW STILL OFF THE WEST COAST OF THE
BAJA PENINSULA. THIS SYSTEM WILL BECOME ABSORBED BY THE MAIN PACIFIC
LOW WHICH IS WELL TO THE WEST OF THE SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA/NORTHERN
BAJA COASTS. A WEAK IMPULSE IS CURRENTLY LIFTING TO THE NORTH
NORTHEAST ACROSS THE FOUR CORNERS REGION. AS A RESULT...VISIBLE AND
IR SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS EXTENSIVE CLOUDINESS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS
FEATURE THAT EXTEND FROM SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA...ACROSS NORTHERN
ARIZONA AND INTO MUCH OF WESTERN NEW MEXICO. CLOSER TO HOME...
VISIBLE IMAGERY SHOWS CUMULUS DEVELOPMENT OVER MAINLY MOUNTAIN TOPS.
A FEW SHOWERS AND STORMS STRUGGLING TO DEVELOP WITH ONLY ISOLATED
MOUNTAIN STORMS AT THIS TIME. THAT SAID...I LOWERED THE POP FORECAST
CONSIDERABLY TO ACCOUNT FOR DRIER AND MORE STABLE AIRMASS.

THIS MORNINGS SOUNDING WAS MUCH DRIER COMPARED TO YESTERDAY
MORNING...WITH THE PW DOWN TO 1.25 INCHES COMPARED TO WEDNESDAY
MORNINGS 1.62 INCHES. VARIOUS SOURCES OF PW SUGGEST THAT CURRENT
READINGS RANGE FROM AROUND 1.1 - 1.3 INCHES AND MAY DROP EVEN LOWER
BEFORE ALL IS SAID AND DONE. DEWPOINT TEMPERATURES CURRENTLY RANGE
FROM THE MID 50S TO THE LOWER 60S...WHICH IS ABOUT 3 TO 5 DEGS
COOLER/DRIER THAN THIS TIME YESTERDAY.

EVEN THOUGH WE ARE DRIER THAN THE PAST 12 TO 24 HOURS...MODELS SHOW
PW`S INCREASING FRIDAY INTO THE 1.5 - 1.7 INCH RANGE AS A WEAK
DISTURBANCE MOVES UP FROM THE SOUTHEAST LATE IN THE DAY AND
POTENTIALLY ENHANCES ACTIVITY. BY SATURDAY A WEAK IMPULSE TO OUR
WEST MOVES TO THE NORTH ACROSS WESTERN ARIZONA WITH PW`S AROUND 1.4 -
1.6 INCHES. SO...I MAINTAIN A LOW GRADE MONSOON FORECAST WITH LOW
END SCATTERED ACTIVITY FOR MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA FRIDAY AND
MOSTLY CENTRAL AND EASTERN AREAS FOR SATURDAY.

BY SUNDAY THE MODELS SHOW HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED EITHER JUST TO OUR
EAST OR SOUTH (GFS HAS IT OVER NEW MEXICO AND ECMWF EXTENDING FROM
EASTERN PACIFIC ACROSS CENTRAL BAJA AND NORTHERN SONORA). BOTH
MODELS SHOW A DRYING TREND WITH PW`S FROM THE GFS DOWN TO ABOUT 1.2
INCHES. SO...I HAVE THE BEST THREAT FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
BETWEEN TUCSON AND THE NEW MEXICO BORDER.

FROM MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY THE HIGH WILL MEANDER ACROSS THE DESERT
SOUTHWEST IN SOME FORM OR FASHION. ECMWF HAS BEEN THE DRIER MODEL
BETWEEN THE GFS AND ECMWF. FOR NOW I CONTINUE WITH A FORECAST ON
MONDAY THAT IS SIMILAR TO MONDAY...BUT THEN EACH DAY THEREAFTER
SHOULD BE A STANDARD LOW GRADE MONSOON FORECAST...WITH THE BEST
THREAT BETWEEN NOGALES AND DOUGLAS AS WELL AS THE MOUNTAIN TOPS.

FOR TUCSON...HIGH TEMPS WILL BE SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY AND 4 TO 6 DEGS ABOVE NORMAL SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...
ALTHOUGH THE WARMEST DAY SHOULD BE TUESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...VALID THRU 31/23Z.
FEW-SCT CLOUDS AT 7-10K FT AGL AND SCT CLOUDS ABOVE 20K FT AGL THRU
31/04Z...THEN DECREASING CLOUDS...WITH A FEW CLOUDS AT 8-12K FT AGL
BY 31/09Z. SCT-BKN CLOUDS AT 6-9K FT AGL AND BKN CLOUDS AT 10-14K FT
AGL AFT 31/19Z. ISOLD -SHRA/-TSRA OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN THRU
31/03Z...WITH SCT SHRA/TSRA DEVELOPING AFT 31/20Z. BRIEF WIND GUSTS
TO NEAR 35 KTS POSSIBLE IN AND AROUND THE STRONGER TSRA. OUTSIDE OF
STORM INFLUENCES...SFC WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE LESS THAN 12 KTS WITH
A FEW HIGHER GUSTS IN THE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING HOURS. AVIATION
DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR TAF AMENDMENTS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL OCCUR MAINLY
ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN THROUGH THIS EVENING BEFORE DIMINISHING.
DRYING IS THEN EXPECTED ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...WITH ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUING OVER EASTERN AREAS. STRONG OUTFLOW WINDS
WILL BE POSSIBLE NEAR THUNDERSTORMS. OTHERWISE...20-FT WINDS WILL
GENERALLY BE TERRAIN DRIVEN AND LESS THAN 15 MPH...WITH SOME
AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING BREEZINESS DUE TO THE STRONG DAYTIME
HEATING.

&&

.TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC...MOLLERE
AVIATION/FIRE WEATHER...ZELL

VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...YOUTUBE...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/TUCSON



000
FXUS65 KPSR 302209
AFDPSR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PHOENIX AZ
309 PM MST THU JUL 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED STORM ACTIVITY IS ANTICIPATED OVER ARIZONA AND
SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA THE REST OF THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING AND AGAIN
FRIDAY. A NOTABLE DOWNTREND IN MOISTURE FROM WEST TO EAST IS EXPECTED
OVER THE WEEKEND. THIS WILL KEEP STORM CHANCES LIMITED TO SOUTH-
CENTRAL ARIZONA WELL INTO NEXT WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
STORM ACTIVITY OVER ARIZONA SO FAR HAS BEEN LIMITED IN AREA FOCUSING
INITIALLY OVER WESTERN YAVAPAI THEN SPREADING INTO MOHAVE AND LA PAZ
COUNTIES. THIS HAS BEEN AIDED BY A VORT MAX CENTERED OVER NORTHERN
ARIZONA. IT WILL MOVE SLOWLY NORTH AND NORTHWESTWARD WITH TIME. WITH
THAT TRAJECTORY IT WILL TEND TO HAVE A DECREASING IMPACT ON OUR
FORECAST AREA WITH TIME...ESPECIALLY BY LATE EVENING. OVER SOUTHEAST
CALIFORNIA...ACTIVITY HAS BEEN ISOLATED TO THE VICINITY OF 29 PALMS
AND JOSHUA TREE NATIONAL PARK. THIS IS CLOSE TO A SHORT WAVE ON THE
FAR NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF AN ELONGATED UPPER LOW CENTERED OFF THE
BAJA COAST. FOR OUR FORECAST AREA...ANTICIPATE CONTINUED DEVELOPMENT
THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON FOCUSING OVER OVER LA PAZ AND EASTERN
RIVERSIDE COUNTIES...INCLUDING JOSHUA TREE NATIONAL PARK...WHERE
CAPE IS BEST. FLASH FLOOD WATCH CONTINUES FOR JOSHUA TREE NATIONAL
PARK THROUGH 03Z. MODELS ALSO HOLD ON TO SOME BETTER CAPE OVER
HIGHER TERRAIN OF SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA...THOUGH PWAT IS LOWER THERE. ONLY
SLIGHT CHANCES ELSEWHERE. SLOW DEVELOPING CONVECTION OVER NORTHWEST
MEXICO IS ANTICIPATED TO SEND DEBRIS CLOUDS...AND POSSIBLY SOME
EMBEDDED LIGHT SHOWERS...OVER OUR AREA LATE TONIGHT AND INTO THE
MORNING FRIDAY AND THUS HELD ON TO SOME LOW END POPS. MODELS SHOW
DECREASED LOWER LEVEL MOISTURE TO VARYING DEGREES ON FRIDAY AND THUS
LESS CAPE. HOWEVER...THERE WILL STILL BE ENOUGH LINGERING LOWER LEVEL
MOISTURE FOR A SLIGHT CHANCE AT MOST LOWER LEVEL LOCATIONS.

TROUGHING OFF THE WEST COAST BEGINS TO TAKE HOLD SATURDAY BEGINNING AN
EASTWARD RETREAT OF MOISTURE AND THUS A DOWNWARD TREND OF POPS FOR
THE WEEKEND. THE RIDGE REBUILDS EARLY NEXT WEEK BUT MODELS ARE
RELUCTANT TO BRING SIGNIFICANT MOISTURE BACK. JUST ENOUGH MOISTURE
HANGS ON OVER SOUTH- CENTRAL ARIZONA FOR LINGERING POPS OVER SOUTH-
CENTRAL ARIZONA MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY BUT OVERALL A LOW GRADE
MONSOON SCENARIO.

&&

.AVIATION...
SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA INCLUDING KPHX...KIWA...AND
KSDL...
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES OVER THE AREA TODAY WITH LIGHT WINDS MOSTLY FROM
THE EASTERLY DIRECTION. THERE IS A SLIGHT POSSIBILITY TO ONCE AGAIN
HAVE SOME LATE AFTERNOON OR EARLY EVENING OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES WHICH
CARRY POTENTIAL FOR RAPID WIND SHIFTS. LOW CONFIDENCE AT THIS TIME AS
THE TYPICAL SOURCE AREAS FOR TSTORMS ARE QUIET FOR NOW.

SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA AND SOUTHWEST ARIZONA INCLUDING KIPL AND
KBLH...
MOSTLY SOUTH WINDS 5 TO 15 KTS EXPECTED BUT SLIGHT CHANCE FOR
TSTORMS EXISTS FOR LATER THIS AFTN FOR KBLH AS SHOWERS/TSTMS ALREADY
FORMING TO THE NORTHWEST THRU NORTHEAST.


AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDED TAFS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...
MONSOONAL MOISTURE WILL SLOWLY BEGIN TO THIN ACROSS THE AREA...FIRST
ACROSS THE WESTERN FIRE DISTRICTS AND EVENTUALLY INTO THE ENTIRE
LOWER DESERT ELEVATIONS AND REGION BY EARLY NEXT WEEK. THIS WILL
RELEGATE STORM CHANCES BACK TOWARDS THE HIGHER TERRAIN AND FURTHER
TO THE EAST ACROSS AZ. THE SLIGHTLY DRIER AIRMASS AND BUILDING UPPER
RIDGE HEIGHTS WILL LEND THEMSELVES TOWARD WARMER SFC CONDITIONS...AT
OR ABOVE SEASONAL NORMALS. WINDS WILL FOLLOW FAMILIAR WARM SEASON
PATTERNS.

&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT CONDITIONS ACCORDING TO STANDARD
OPERATING PROCEDURES.

&&

.PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AZ...NONE.
CA...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 8 PM PDT THIS EVENING FOR CAZ030.

&&

$$

VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/PHOENIX

DISCUSSION...AJ
AVIATION...WATERS
FIRE WEATHER...NOLTE




000
FXUS65 KPSR 302209
AFDPSR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PHOENIX AZ
309 PM MST THU JUL 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED STORM ACTIVITY IS ANTICIPATED OVER ARIZONA AND
SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA THE REST OF THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING AND AGAIN
FRIDAY. A NOTABLE DOWNTREND IN MOISTURE FROM WEST TO EAST IS EXPECTED
OVER THE WEEKEND. THIS WILL KEEP STORM CHANCES LIMITED TO SOUTH-
CENTRAL ARIZONA WELL INTO NEXT WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
STORM ACTIVITY OVER ARIZONA SO FAR HAS BEEN LIMITED IN AREA FOCUSING
INITIALLY OVER WESTERN YAVAPAI THEN SPREADING INTO MOHAVE AND LA PAZ
COUNTIES. THIS HAS BEEN AIDED BY A VORT MAX CENTERED OVER NORTHERN
ARIZONA. IT WILL MOVE SLOWLY NORTH AND NORTHWESTWARD WITH TIME. WITH
THAT TRAJECTORY IT WILL TEND TO HAVE A DECREASING IMPACT ON OUR
FORECAST AREA WITH TIME...ESPECIALLY BY LATE EVENING. OVER SOUTHEAST
CALIFORNIA...ACTIVITY HAS BEEN ISOLATED TO THE VICINITY OF 29 PALMS
AND JOSHUA TREE NATIONAL PARK. THIS IS CLOSE TO A SHORT WAVE ON THE
FAR NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF AN ELONGATED UPPER LOW CENTERED OFF THE
BAJA COAST. FOR OUR FORECAST AREA...ANTICIPATE CONTINUED DEVELOPMENT
THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON FOCUSING OVER OVER LA PAZ AND EASTERN
RIVERSIDE COUNTIES...INCLUDING JOSHUA TREE NATIONAL PARK...WHERE
CAPE IS BEST. FLASH FLOOD WATCH CONTINUES FOR JOSHUA TREE NATIONAL
PARK THROUGH 03Z. MODELS ALSO HOLD ON TO SOME BETTER CAPE OVER
HIGHER TERRAIN OF SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA...THOUGH PWAT IS LOWER THERE. ONLY
SLIGHT CHANCES ELSEWHERE. SLOW DEVELOPING CONVECTION OVER NORTHWEST
MEXICO IS ANTICIPATED TO SEND DEBRIS CLOUDS...AND POSSIBLY SOME
EMBEDDED LIGHT SHOWERS...OVER OUR AREA LATE TONIGHT AND INTO THE
MORNING FRIDAY AND THUS HELD ON TO SOME LOW END POPS. MODELS SHOW
DECREASED LOWER LEVEL MOISTURE TO VARYING DEGREES ON FRIDAY AND THUS
LESS CAPE. HOWEVER...THERE WILL STILL BE ENOUGH LINGERING LOWER LEVEL
MOISTURE FOR A SLIGHT CHANCE AT MOST LOWER LEVEL LOCATIONS.

TROUGHING OFF THE WEST COAST BEGINS TO TAKE HOLD SATURDAY BEGINNING AN
EASTWARD RETREAT OF MOISTURE AND THUS A DOWNWARD TREND OF POPS FOR
THE WEEKEND. THE RIDGE REBUILDS EARLY NEXT WEEK BUT MODELS ARE
RELUCTANT TO BRING SIGNIFICANT MOISTURE BACK. JUST ENOUGH MOISTURE
HANGS ON OVER SOUTH- CENTRAL ARIZONA FOR LINGERING POPS OVER SOUTH-
CENTRAL ARIZONA MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY BUT OVERALL A LOW GRADE
MONSOON SCENARIO.

&&

.AVIATION...
SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA INCLUDING KPHX...KIWA...AND
KSDL...
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES OVER THE AREA TODAY WITH LIGHT WINDS MOSTLY FROM
THE EASTERLY DIRECTION. THERE IS A SLIGHT POSSIBILITY TO ONCE AGAIN
HAVE SOME LATE AFTERNOON OR EARLY EVENING OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES WHICH
CARRY POTENTIAL FOR RAPID WIND SHIFTS. LOW CONFIDENCE AT THIS TIME AS
THE TYPICAL SOURCE AREAS FOR TSTORMS ARE QUIET FOR NOW.

SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA AND SOUTHWEST ARIZONA INCLUDING KIPL AND
KBLH...
MOSTLY SOUTH WINDS 5 TO 15 KTS EXPECTED BUT SLIGHT CHANCE FOR
TSTORMS EXISTS FOR LATER THIS AFTN FOR KBLH AS SHOWERS/TSTMS ALREADY
FORMING TO THE NORTHWEST THRU NORTHEAST.


AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDED TAFS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...
MONSOONAL MOISTURE WILL SLOWLY BEGIN TO THIN ACROSS THE AREA...FIRST
ACROSS THE WESTERN FIRE DISTRICTS AND EVENTUALLY INTO THE ENTIRE
LOWER DESERT ELEVATIONS AND REGION BY EARLY NEXT WEEK. THIS WILL
RELEGATE STORM CHANCES BACK TOWARDS THE HIGHER TERRAIN AND FURTHER
TO THE EAST ACROSS AZ. THE SLIGHTLY DRIER AIRMASS AND BUILDING UPPER
RIDGE HEIGHTS WILL LEND THEMSELVES TOWARD WARMER SFC CONDITIONS...AT
OR ABOVE SEASONAL NORMALS. WINDS WILL FOLLOW FAMILIAR WARM SEASON
PATTERNS.

&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT CONDITIONS ACCORDING TO STANDARD
OPERATING PROCEDURES.

&&

.PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AZ...NONE.
CA...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 8 PM PDT THIS EVENING FOR CAZ030.

&&

$$

VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/PHOENIX

DISCUSSION...AJ
AVIATION...WATERS
FIRE WEATHER...NOLTE



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