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000
FXUS65 KTWC 252201
AFDTWC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ
300 PM MST SAT OCT 25 2014

.SYNOPSIS...A COOLING TREND WILL OCCUR THRU EARLY WEEK AS A LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES NORTH OF THE AREA. AFTERNOON HIGH
TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR SEASONAL AVERAGES TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY...WARMING TO ABOVE NORMAL BY THE END OF THE WEEK AS HIGH
PRESSURE ALOFT BUILDS BACK ACROSS THE WESTERN STATES.

&&

.DISCUSSION...FLOW ALOFT WILL SHIFT TO ZONAL OVER THE NEXT 24
HOURS AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH SLIDES THRU THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST.
ENOUGH SOUTH TO SOUTHWESTERLY MID LEVEL FLOW EXISTS TO KEEP SOME
MID LEVEL MOISTURE IN PLACE THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING. DON`T SEE MUCH
IN THE WAY OF MEASURABLE PRECIP COMING OUT OF THIS...BUT CAN`T
RULE OUT SOME WEAK CUMULUS DEVELOPMENT TOMORROW. THAT BEING
SAID...HAVE CONTINUED THE LOW END SLIGHT CHANCE POPS IN THE WHITE
MOUNTAINS AS BEST MOISTURE EXISTS THERE. EVEN THIS MOISTURE WILL
QUICKLY BE PUSHED EASTWARD AS THE AFOREMENTIONED TROUGH SLIDES EAST
AND USHERS IN DRIER AIR TO THE REGION.

BY MID WEEK SHORTWAVE RIDGING SLIDES IN WHICH WILL RESULT IN TEMPS
CLIMBING BACK UP...THOUGH NOT NEARLY AS WARM AS IT HAS BEEN THE
LAST COUPLE OF DAYS. ALSO...WEDNESDAY A WEAK EASTERLY WIND IS
PROGGED MAINLY EAST OF TUCSON. THESE CONDITIONS LOOK TO PERSIST
THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK...WITH THE TIGHTEST GRADIENT FRIDAY.
SATURDAY LOOKS TO ALSO HAVE SOME POTENTIAL FOR EASTERLY
WINDS...THOUGH WINDS WILL LIKELY TRANSITION TO SOUTHWESTERLY AS
ANOTHER UPPER TROUGH PUSHES THRU THE AREA.

&&

.AVIATION...VALID THRU 27/00Z.
A WEAK DISTURBANCE MOVING NORTHEAST ACROSS SOUTHEAST ARIZONA WILL
BRING A FEW TO BROKEN CLOUDS MAINLY AROUND 10K FT AGL INTO TONIGHT.
THE BULK OF THESE CLOUDS WILL MOVE EAST OF THE AREA SUNDAY MORNING.
ADDITIONAL MID AND UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BRING SCATTERED TO
OVERCAST CLOUDS MAINLY ABOVE 12K FT AGL SUNDAY. THERE IS ALSO A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF -SHRA ACROSS THE WHITE MOUNTAINS NE OF KSAD SUNDAY.
SURFACE WIND WILL GENERALLY BE LESS THAN 10 KTS INTO SUNDAY MORNING.
SURFACE WIND SUNDAY AFTERNOON WILL BE SWLY-NWLY 12-18 KTS. AVIATION
DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR TAF AMENDMENTS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS ACROSS THE WHITE
MOUNTAINS SUNDAY. OTHERWISE...DRY CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL DURING THE
UPCOMING WEEK. DAYTIME MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITIES SUNDAY AND MONDAY
WILL GENERALLY RANGE FROM 20-40 PERCENT SUNDAY AND MONDAY...THEN
WILL FALL INTO THE MID TEENS TO 20S TOWARD THE END OF THE WEEK.
EXPECT GOOD OVERNIGHT RECOVERIES DURING THE PERIOD. SOME GUSTY WEST
TO NORTHWEST WINDS SHOULD OCCUR SUNDAY AND MONDAY DURING THE AFTERNOON
HOURS AS A LOW PRESSURE TROUGH MOVES NORTH OF THE AREA. 20-FOOT
WINDS WILL THEN BE LIGHT AND TERRAIN DRIVEN TUESDAY. EXPECT SOME
GUSTY EAST TO SOUTHEAST WINDS WEDNESDAY INTO FRIDAY.

&&

.TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...MEADOWS
AVIATION/FIRE WEATHER...FRANCIS

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000
FXUS65 KPSR 252132
AFDPSR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PHOENIX AZ
232 PM MST SAT OCT 25 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
THE LINGERING EFFECTS OF EXITING HIGH PRESSURE WILL RESULT IN
ANOTHER WELL-ABOVE NORMAL HIGH TEMPERATURE DAY OVER THE SOUTHWEST
DESERTS. A COOLING TREND WILL BEGIN SUNDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AS
LOW PRESSURE MOVES INLAND INTO THE GREAT BASIN...WITH TEMPERATURES
FALLING BACK TO NEAR SEASONAL NORMALS. ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL
MAKE A RETURN FOR WEDNESDAY AND BEYOND AS HIGH PRESSURE BECOMES
REESTABLISHED ACROSS THE WESTERN STATES.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
UPPER RIDGE AXIS HAS TRANSITIONED FURTHER TO OUR EAST TODAY AS
PACIFIC LOW PRESSURE MOVES ONSHORE OVER THE WEST COAST. TROUGHING
STRETCHING DOWN THROUGH NORTHERN BAJA WILL MOVE INTO THE SOUTHWEST
STATES...KEEPING SOME AREAS OF MID TO HIGH LEVEL PACIFIC MOISTURE
STREAMING IN FROM THE SOUTHWEST. EARLIER CU FIELDS HAVE THINNED AND
DISSIPATED OVER THE LOWER DESERT ELEVATIONS WHILE PICKING UP
CONSIDERABLY IN THE COVERAGE OVER NORTHERN ARIZONA...CLOSER TO THE
WEAK NORTHERLY JET STREAK AHEAD OF THE MAIN TROUGH BODY. EVEN WITH
DECREASING RIDGE HEIGHTS...TEMPERATURES HAVE WARMED TO READINGS ON
PAR WITH THOSE AT THIS TIME YESTERDAY. SOME FORECAST LOCATIONS COULD
PUSH NEAR THEIR RECORDS FOR THE DAY...PHOENIX`S RECORD AT 96F AND
YUMA`S RECORD AT 100F. GIVEN THE QUICK DISSIPATION AND VERY LOW
TOPPED NATURE OF CU TODAY...NOT EXPECTING ANYTHING MORE THAN SOME
LIMITED AMOUNTS OF VIRGA FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY. ANY
PRECIPITATION OF INTEREST SHOULD STAY WELL NORTH OF THE AREA THE
HIGHER TERRAIN OF NORTHERN AZ.

UPPER LOW FEATURE WILL SLOWLY TRACK THROUGH THE GREAT BASIN STATES
THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY WILL INCREASE THE USUAL AFTERNOON
WESTERLY BREEZES A BIT ACROSS SE CA AND SW AZ. HOWEVER SUSTAINED
WIND SPEEDS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN MAINLY AOB 10 KTS. A SLOW
DRYING/CLEARING TREND WILL TRANSITION INTO THE AREA SUNDAY AS THE
MAIN MOISTURE PLUME MOVES OFF TO THE SOUTH AND EAST WITH DRIER AIR
MOVING INTO THE REGION FROM THE NORTHWEST.

ALTHOUGH A COOLING TREND IS EXPECTED FROM SUNDAY ONWARD INTO
TUESDAY AS THE LONG-WAVE UPPER-LEVEL TROF SHIFTS EASTWARD ACROSS THE
GREAT BASIN INTO THE CENTRAL ROCKIES...IT STILL APPEARS THAT
TEMPERATURES WILL ONLY FALL AROUND OR JUST SLIGHTLY ABOVE SEASONAL
NORMALS ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY. GREATEST AMOUNT OF COOLING OCCURS
LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY BEFORE 850MB TEMPERATURES STABILIZE. 850MB
TEMPERATURES ARE ONLY EXPECTED TO FALL ABOUT 4-5C FROM TODAY/S
READINGS...WITH EVEN LESS COOLING INDICATED AT 700 AND 500MB.

AS FAR AS THE FORECAST OF THE MIDDLE AND END OF NEXT WEEK IS
CONCERNED...THE GFS IS NOW COMING INTO BETTER AGREEMENT WITH THE EURO
ON THE IDEA OF A RETURN TO WARMER TEMPERATURES AS HIGH PRESSURE
REBUILDS BACK OVER THE REGION...BUT IT IS STILL NOT AS AGGRESSIVE AS
THE EURO IS ON THE MAGNITUDE OF THE UPCOMING WARMING TREND. WHILE THE
EURO CONTINUES TO PUSH HIGH TEMPERATURES BACK INTO THE LOW TO MID 90S
ACROSS THE LOWER DESERTS BY THE END OF NEXT WEEK...THE GFS STILL
HOLDS HIGHS BACK DOWN IN THE UPPER 80S DUE TO ITS FORECAST OF
SOMEWHAT LOWER 500MB HEIGHTS. AT THIS POINT STILL GIVING THE NOD TO
THE BETTER-PERFORMING EURO WITH MANY LOWER DESERT LOCATIONS SEEING AT
LEAST 90F ON FRIDAY AND SATURDAY UNDER MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES WITH LIGHT
WINDS.

&&

.AVIATION...
SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA INCLUDING KPHX...KIWA AND KSDL...SOUTHEAST
CALIFORNIA AND SOUTHWEST ARIZONA INCLUDING KIPL AND KBLH...

MID LEVEL MOISTURE STREAMING INTO THE DESERT SOUTHWEST AHEAD OF A
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM SITUATED WELL OUR NORTHWEST WILL BRING SCATTERED
TO BROKEN CLOUD DECKS TODAY WITH OCCASIONAL CIGS FROM 9-12K FEET.
MID LAYER CLOUDS WILL MOVE OUT AFTER MIDNIGHT WITH INCREASING HIGH
CLOUDS LIKELY MOVING IN. WINDS WILL REMAIN LESS THAN 10 KNOTS
THROUGH THE PERIOD AND GENERALLY FOLLOW TYPICAL DIURNAL DIRECTIONS.

AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDED TAFS.

&&

.CLIMATE...
RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES

DATE         PHOENIX
----         -------
SAT OCT 25   96 IN 1990

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...
AFTER A BRIEF PERIOD OF NEAR-NORMAL TEMPERATURES EARLY IN THE
WEEK...A WARMING TREND IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE REST OF WEEK AS HIGH
PRESSURE SLOWLY BUILDS BACK EASTWARD ACROSS THE REGION. HIGHS WILL
CLIMB BACK TO AROUND 90 BY THURSDAY ACROSS THE LOWER DESERTS. MAINLY
CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE FORECAST
PERIOD...WITH AFTERNOON HUMIDITIES GENERALLY IN THE 15 TO 20 PERCENT
RANGE EACH DAY ACROSS THE LOWER DESERTS.

&&

.PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

AZ...NONE.

CA...NONE.

&&

$$

VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/PHOENIX

DISCUSSION...NOLTE/PERCHA
AVIATION....KUHLMAN
CLIMATE...PERCHA
FIRE WEATHER...KUHLMAN





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000
FXUS65 KFGZ 252123
AFDFGZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ
223 PM MST SAT OCT 25 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
BREEZY CONDITIONS AND A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH
SUNDAY AS A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE MOVES ACROSS THE GREAT BASIN.
TEMPERATURES WILL COOL TO NEAR SEASONAL NORMALS SUNDAY AND
MONDAY...BEFORE RISING AGAIN AS A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
OVER THE AREA LATE IN THE WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...ONLY A FEW SPRINKLES ACROSS NORTHERN ARIZONA
TODAY...WITH PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES...WARM TEMPERATURES...AND BREEZY
CONDITIONS. EXPECT MORE OF THE SAME WITH COOLER TEMPERATURES ON
SUNDAY AS A BROAD CONTINUES TO MOVE THROUGH THE GREAT BASIN. PROGS
INDICATE 700MB TEMPS WILL DROP 2-6 DEGREES WITH THE TROUGH
PASSAGE...ENOUGH TO BRING DOWN OUR MAX TEMPERATURES TO NEAR SEASONAL
NORMALS THROUGH TUESDAY. GFS AND ECMWF ENSEMBLES ALL INDIDATE A
TRANSIENT...BUT STRONG RIDGE BUILDING ONCE AGAIN OVER THE WESTERN US
BY WEDNESDAY. EXPECT TEMPERATURES 5-10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL
WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY AS THIS FEATURE MIGRATES TO THE EAST ACROSS
THE AREA. COOLER AND BREEZY CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE NEXT WEEKEND AS
ANOTHER TROUGH IS FORECAST TO MOVE INTO THE GREAT BASIN.

&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 00Z PACKAGE...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HRS. SCT-BKN CUMULUS WILL PERSIST INTO
THIS EVENING WITH AN ISOLATED LIGHT SHOWER POSSIBLE OVER THE HIGH
TERRAIN THIS EVENING INTO SUNDAY. SOUTHWEST WINDS GUSTING NEAR 20-25
KTS WILL DECREASE TO LESS THAN 10 KTS BY 01-02Z SUNDAY. BREEZY
SOUTHWEST WINDS RETURN SUNDAY AFTERNOON. AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT
UPDATED FOR AMENDMENTS.

&&

.FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC.........BAK
AVIATION.......MCS

FOR NORTHERN ARIZONA WEATHER INFORMATION VISIT
WEATHER.GOV/FLAGSTAFF







000
FXUS65 KTWC 252026
AFDTWC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ
126 PM MST SAT OCT 25 2014

.SYNOPSIS...A COOLING TREND WILL OCCUR THRU EARLY WEEK AS A LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES NORTH OF THE AREA. AFTERNOON HIGH
TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR SEASONAL AVERAGES TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY...WARMING TO ABOVE NORMAL BY THE END OF THE WEEK AS HIGH
PRESSURE ALOFT BUILDS BACK ACROSS THE WESTERN STATES.

&&

.DISCUSSION...FLOW ALOFT WILL SHIFT TO ZONAL OVER THE NEXT 24
HOURS AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH SLIDES THRU THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST.
ENOUGH SOUTH TO SOUTHWESTERLY MID LEVEL FLOW EXIST TO KEEP SOME
MID LEVEL MOISTURE IN PLACE THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING. DON`T SEE MUCH
IN THE WAY OF MEASURABLE PRECIP COMING OUT OF THIS...BUT CAN`T
RULE OUT SOME WEAK CUMULUS DEVELOPMENT TOMORROW. THAT BEING
SAID...HAVE CONTINUED THE LOW END SLIGHT CHANCE POPS IN THE WHITE
MOUNTAINS AS BEST MOISTURE EXIST THERE. EVEN THIS MOISTURE WILL
QUICKLY BE PUSHED EASTWARD AS THE AFOREMENTIONED TROUGH SLIDES EAST
AND USHERS IN DRIER AIR TO THE REGION.

BY MID WEEK SHORTWAVE RIDGING SLIDES IN WHICH WILL RESULT IN TEMPS
CLIMBING BACK UP...THOUGH NOT NEARLY AS WARM AS IT HAS BEEN THE
LAST COUPLE OF DAYS. ALSO...WEDNESDAY A WEAK EASTERLY WIND IS
PROGGED MAINLY EAST OF TUCSON. THESE CONDITIONS LOOK TO PERSIST
THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK...WITH THE TIGHTEST GRADIENT FRIDAY.
SATURDAY LOOKS TO ALSO HAVE SOME POTENTIAL FOR EASTERLY
WINDS...THOUGH WINDS WILL LIKELY TRANSITION TO SOUTHWESTERLY AS
ANOTHER UPPER TROUGH PUSHES THRU THE AREA.

&&

.AVIATION...VALID THRU 27/00Z.
A WEAK DISTURBANCE MOVING NORTHEAST ACROSS SOUTHEAST ARIZONA WILL
BRING A FEW TO BROKEN CLOUDS MAINLY AROUND 10K FT AGL INTO TONIGHT.
THE BULK OF THESE CLOUDS WILL MOVE EAST OF THE AREA SUNDAY MORNING.
HOWEVER...ADDITIONAL MAINLY UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BRING
SCATTERED TO OVERCAST CLOUDS ABOVE 15K FT AGL SUNDAY. SURFACE WIND
WILL GENERALLY BE LESS THAN 10 KTS INTO SUNDAY MORNING. SURFACE WIND
SUNDAY AFTERNOON WILL BE SWLY-NWLY 12-18 KTS. AVIATION DISCUSSION
NOT UPDATED FOR TAF AMENDMENTS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...DRY CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL DURING THE UPCOMING
WEEK. DAYTIME MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITIES SUNDAY AND MONDAY WILL
GENERALLY RANGE FROM 20-40 PERCENT SUNDAY AND MONDAY...THEN WILL
FALL INTO THE MID TEENS TO 20S TOWARD THE END OF THE WEEK. EXPECT
GOOD OVERNIGHT RECOVERIES DURING THE PERIOD. SOME GUSTY WEST TO
NORTHWEST WINDS WILL OCCUR SUNDAY AND MONDAY DURING THE AFTERNOON
HOURS AS A LOW PRESSURE TROUGH MOVES NORTH OF THE AREA. 20-FOOT
WINDS WILL THEN BE LIGHT AND TERRAIN DRIVEN TUESDAY. EXPECT SOME
GUSTY EAST TO SOUTHEAST WINDS WEDNESDAY INTO FRIDAY.

&&

.TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...MEADOWS
FIRE WEATHER...83

VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...YOUTUBE...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/TUCSON







000
FXUS65 KPSR 251710
AFDPSR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PHOENIX AZ
1010 AM MST SAT OCT 25 2014

.UPDATE...UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION...

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL GRADUALLY TRANSITION EAST OF THE AREA TODAY...BUT
NOT BEFORE SUPPORTING ANOTHER ROUND OF WELL-ABOVE AVERAGE HIGH
TEMPERATURES. A COOLING TREND IS FROM SUNDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AS
LOW PRESSURE MOVES INLAND INTO THE GREAT BASIN...WITH TEMPERATURES
FALLING BACK TO NEAR SEASONAL NORMALS. A RETURN TO ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES IS THEN EXPECTED FROM WEDNESDAY ONWARD THROUGH THE END
OF NEXT WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE BECOMES REESTABLISHED ACROSS THE
WESTERN STATES.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
CONSIDERABLE CU FIELDS ALREADY NOTED ON AREA WEBCAMS AND THE FIRST
FEW FRAMES OF VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY THIS AM. NEIGHBOR AM RAOBS
AND FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE MOISTURE MOSTLY THROUGHOUT THE MID
LEVELS AROUND 700MB...WITH DRY SUB-CLOUD LAYERS/INVERTED V SOUNDING
TRACES BELOW. THIS SOMEWHAT NARROW MOISTURE LAYER...ALTHOUGH MOIST
ENOUGH TO WARRANT 3-4 STANDARD DEV ABOVE NORMAL ON NAEFS ANOMALIES
TABLES TODAY...WILL PERSIST LAYERS OF CU THROUGHOUT THE DAY AREAWIDE
AS MOISTURE CONTINUES TO TRACK NORTHWARD IN RESPONSE TO LOW PRESSURE
MOVING INTO THE GREAT BASIN. WITH PWATS STILL PROGGED TO NEAR THE 1
INCH MARK...CANNOT RULE OUT VIRGA AND MAYBE AN ISOLATED SPRINKLE TO
TWO OUT OF THE SOME OF THE THICKER CLOUDS THROUGH THE DAYLIGHT
HOURS...BUT NOT ENOUGH COVERAGE TO WARRANT ANY WEATHER-GENERATING
POPS IN FOR THE GRIDS TODAY.

HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE...RESPONSIBLE FOR OUR LATEST STRETCH OF ABOVE
NORMAL TEMPERATURES...HAS BEGUN TO TRANSITION EASTWARD AS PACIFIC
LOW PRESSURE TROUGH APPROACHES THE WA/OR COAST. PROGRESSION OF
LOWERING 500MB HEIGHTS IN RESPONSE TO THE TROUGH ARE ALREADY AHEAD
12Z GFS/NAM FORECASTS AND COOLING IN THE MODEL SOUNDING PROFILES ALSO
SEEM TO BE JUST A FEW DEGREES WARMER/BEHIND THAN 12Z RAOBS. THOSE
FACTORS...COUPLED WITH THE PERIODS OF CLOUDINESS SHOULD SUPPORT A FEW
DEGREES OF COOLING AT THE SURFACE TODAY. WHILE TEMPERATURES ARE
MOSTLY SHY OF RECORDS TODAY...THEY WILL STILL BE 8 TO 10 DEGREES
ABOVE NORMAL.

MINOR UPDATES WERE NEEDED TO ALIGN THE SKY COVER GRIDS TO CURRENT
TRENDS WHILE SOLIDLY PLACING MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA INTO PARTLY
SUNNY TO PARTLY CLOUDY WORDING FOR MUCH OF THE DAY. CU FIELDS SHOULD
TRANSITION EASTWARD THROUGH THE DAY...BUT ANOTHER AREA OF PACIFIC
MOISTURE IN THE MID TO HIGH LEVELS MAY STREAM OVER THE AREA TONIGHT
FROM THE SOUTHWEST...PERSISTING SOME AREAS OF CIRRUS OVERNIGHT. NO
OTHER UPDATES NEEDED...REST OF FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK.

&&

.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION /ISSUED AT 300 AM MST/PDT...
THE STRONG RIDGING ALOFT THAT BROUGHT RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES TO
SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA YESTERDAY IS NOW BEGINNING TO WEAKEN AND SHIFT
OFF TO THE EAST AS A RATHER STRONG UPPER TROF BEGINS TO PUSH INLAND
INTO CENTRAL/NORTHERN CA. IT APPEARS THAT ONE MORE DAY OF NEAR-RECORD
HIGHS IS IN THE CARDS FOR SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA TODAY. HOWEVER...A
COMBINATION OF INCREASING CLOUDINESS...A DEGREE OR SO OF COOLING IN
THE 850-700 MB LAYER...AND A SLIGHT LOWERING OF 500MB HEIGHTS SHOULD
KEEP PHOENIX SKY HARBOR A COUPLE OF DEGREES SHORT OF TODAY/S RECORD
HIGH OF 96F.

SCATTERED TO BROKEN MID-HIGH LEVEL CLOUD LAYERS...A RESULT OF A
MOISTURE PLUME THAT IS EXPECTED TO BRIEFLY SURGE NORTHWARD AHEAD OF
THE APPROACHING UPPER TROF...ARE EXPECTED TO PROGRESS EASTWARD
ACROSS ARIZONA TODAY AND TONIGHT. ALTHOUGH PWATS COULD BRIEFLY
REACH/EXCEED 1 INCH ACROSS SOUTHERN ARIZONA TODAY...A DRY SUBCLOUD
LAYER IS EXPECTED TO LIMIT ANY RAINFALL TO AN ISOLATED
SPRINKLE...WITH ONLY A REMOTE CHANCE THAT ANY LOCATION WILL SEE
MEASURABLE RAINFALL. THE APPROACHING TROF WILL ALSO INCREASE THE
USUAL AFTERNOON WESTERLY BREEZES A BIT ACROSS SE CA AND SW AZ...BUT
SUSTAINED WIND SPEED ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN MAINLY AOB 10 KTS. A
SLOW DRYING/CLEARING TREND IS THEN EXPECTED ON SUNDAY AS THE MAIN
MOISTURE PLUME MOVES OFF TO THE EAST AS DRIER AIR BEGINS TO MOVE
INTO THE REGION FROM THE NORTHWEST.

ALTHOUGH A COOLING TREND IS EXPECTED FROM SUNDAY ONWARD INTO
TUESDAY AS THE LONG-WAVE UPPER-LEVEL TROF SHIFTS EASTWARD ACROSS THE
GREAT BASIN INTO THE CENTRAL ROCKIES...IT STILL APPEARS THAT
TEMPERATURES WILL ONLY FALL TO AROUND...OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE SEASONAL
NORMALS ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY...SINCE 850MB TEMPERATURES ARE ONLY
EXPECTED TO FALL ABOUT 4-5C FROM TODAY/S READINGS...WITH EVEN LESS
COOLING INDICATED AT 700 AND 500MB. SKIES ARE EXPECTED TO BE MOSTLY
SUNNY THROUGH THIS PERIOD AS PWATS FALL INTO THE 0.40-0.60 INCH
RANGE.

AS FAR AS THE FORECAST OF THE MIDDLE AND END OF NEXT WEEK IS
CONCERNED...THE GFS IS NOW COMING INTO BETTER AGREEMENT WITH THE
EURO ON THE IDEA OF A RETURN TO WARMER TEMPERATURES AS HIGH PRESSURE
REBUILDS BACK OVER THE REGION...BUT IT IS STILL NOT AS AGGRESSIVE AS
THE EURO IS ON THE MAGNITUDE OF THE UPCOMING WARMING TREND. WHILE
THE EURO CONTINUES TO PUSH HIGH TEMPERATURES BACK INTO THE LOW TO
MID 90S ACROSS THE LOWER DESERTS BY THE END OF NEXT WEEK...THE GFS
STILL HOLDS HIGHS BACK DOWN IN THE UPPER 80S DUE TO ITS FORECAST OF
SOMEWHAT LOWER 500MB HEIGHTS. IT THIS POINT...STILL GIVING THE NOD
TO THE BETTER-PERFORMING EURO...WITH MANY LOWER DESERT LOCATIONS
SEEING AT LEAST 90F ON FRIDAY AND SATURDAY UNDER MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES
WITH LIGHT WINDS.

&&

.AVIATION...
SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA INCLUDING KPHX...KIWA AND KSDL...SOUTHEAST
CALIFORNIA AND SOUTHWEST ARIZONA INCLUDING KIPL AND KBLH...

MID LEVEL MOISTURE STREAMING INTO THE DESERT SOUTHWEST AHEAD OF A
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM SITUATED WELL OUR NORTHWEST WILL BRING SCATTERED
TO BROKEN CLOUD DECKS TODAY WITH OCCASIONAL CIGS FROM 9-12K FEET.
MID LAYER CLOUDS WILL MOVE OUT AFTER MIDNIGHT WITH INCREASING HIGH
CLOUDS LIKELY MOVING IN. WINDS WILL REMAIN LESS THAN 10 KNOTS
THROUGH THE PERIOD AND GENERALLY FOLLOW TYPICAL DIURNAL DIRECTIONS.

AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDED TAFS.

&&

.CLIMATE...
RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES

DATE         PHOENIX
----         -------
SAT OCT 25   96 IN 1990

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...
AFTER A BRIEF PERIOD OF NEAR-NORMAL TEMPERATURES ON MONDAY AND
TUESDAY...A WARMING TREND IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE REST OF NEXT WEEK
AS HIGH PRESSURE SLOWLY BUILDS BACK EASTWARD ACROSS THE
REGION...WITH MANY LOWER DESERT LOCATIONS SEEING HIGHS NEAR 90F BY
FRIDAY. MAINLY CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE
FORECAST PERIOD...WITH AFTERNOON HUMIDITIES FALLING INTO THE MID
TEENS TO LOWER 20 PERCENT RANGE EACH DAY...WITH GOOD OVERNIGHT
RECOVERIES EXPECTED.

&&

.PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

AZ...NONE.

CA...NONE.

&&

$$

VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/PHOENIX

DISCUSSION...NOLTE
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...PERCHA
AVIATION....KUHLMAN
FIRE WEATHER...PERCHA









000
FXUS65 KFGZ 251640
AFDFGZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ
940 AM MST SAT OCT 25 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL SHIFT TO THE EAST AND ALLOW FOR COOLER
TEMPERATURES AND BREEZY CONDITIONS OVER THE NORTHLAND THIS WEEKEND.
THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS LATER TODAY AND ON SUNDAY AS
MOISTURE BRIEFLY MOVES INTO THE AREA FROM THE SOUTH.
OTHERWISE...FAIR WEATHER IS EXPECTED TO RETURN ON MONDAY AND
CONTINUE THROUGH NEXT WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...THE SOUNDING THIS MORNING WAS VERY DRY...BUT MID LEVEL
MOISTURE IS INCREASING ACROSS NORTHERN ARIZONA THIS MORNING.
FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE ENOUGH INSTABILITY FOR SOME WEAK
LOW-TOPPED CONVECTION (TO 20KFT AGL OR SO)...AND AS SUCH AN ISOLATED
SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN IS POSSIBLE THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. IT WILL BE QUITE WARM AGAIN TODAY...WITH A
FEW LOCATIONS ACROSS THE EXTREME NORTH AND NORTHEAST PORTIONS OF THE
STATE CLOSE TO RECORD MAX TEMPS. FORECAST IS IN GOOD SHAPE...NO
UPDATES PLANNED.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION /230 AM MST/...HIGH PRESSURE WAS CENTERED OVER
TEXAS WITH LOW PRESSURE APPROACHING THE WEST COAST DURING THE EARLY
MORNING HOURS.

FOR TODAY INTO MONDAY...THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE ACROSS THE
WESTERN UNITED STATES, BRUSHING ARIZONA. LIMITED MOISTURE WILL BE
DRAWN NORTHWARD BEFORE THE SYSTEM HEADS EASTWARD SUNDAY NIGHT. THE
RESULT WILL BE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LATER
THIS AFTERNOON FROM ABOUT PRESCOTT AND FLAGSTAFF NORTHWESTWARD. ON
SUNDAY, PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL SHIFT TO THE HIGHER TERRAIN FROM
FLAGSTAFF EASTWARD. A STRAY THUNDERSTORM WILL STILL BE POSSIBLE. DRY
CONDITIONS BY MONDAY. BREEZY AFTERNOON WIND A COOLER DAYTIME
TEMPERATURES CAN BE ANTICIPATED EACH DAY.

TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW A DRY WEATHER
PATTERN...WITH TEMPERATURES RISING ABOVE NORMAL AS HIGH PRESSURE
MOVES ACROSS ARIZONA. THE GFS MODEL IS SUGGESTING THAT A LITTLE
EXTRA SOUTHWESTERLY BREEZINESS WILL DEVELOP BY FRIDAY (COMPARED TO
THE EUROPEAN MODEL). OTHER THAN THAT NO SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES.

&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 18Z PACKAGE...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE OVER THE NEXT 24 HRS. SCATTERED CU/ALTO CU WILL MOVE ACROSS
THE AREA TODAY WITH A FEW LIGHT -SHRA/-TSRA POSSIBLE OVER THE HIGH
TERRAIN. SOUTHWEST WINDS BECOMING 10-15 KTS WITH GUSTS UP TO 25
KTS...DECREASING AFTER SUNSET. AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR
AMENDMENTS.


&&

.FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC.........BAK/MCCOLLUM
AVIATION.......MCS/RR

FOR NORTHERN ARIZONA WEATHER INFORMATION VISIT
WEATHER.GOV/FLAGSTAFF







000
FXUS65 KFGZ 251640
AFDFGZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ
940 AM MST SAT OCT 25 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL SHIFT TO THE EAST AND ALLOW FOR COOLER
TEMPERATURES AND BREEZY CONDITIONS OVER THE NORTHLAND THIS WEEKEND.
THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS LATER TODAY AND ON SUNDAY AS
MOISTURE BRIEFLY MOVES INTO THE AREA FROM THE SOUTH.
OTHERWISE...FAIR WEATHER IS EXPECTED TO RETURN ON MONDAY AND
CONTINUE THROUGH NEXT WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...THE SOUNDING THIS MORNING WAS VERY DRY...BUT MID LEVEL
MOISTURE IS INCREASING ACROSS NORTHERN ARIZONA THIS MORNING.
FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE ENOUGH INSTABILITY FOR SOME WEAK
LOW-TOPPED CONVECTION (TO 20KFT AGL OR SO)...AND AS SUCH AN ISOLATED
SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN IS POSSIBLE THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. IT WILL BE QUITE WARM AGAIN TODAY...WITH A
FEW LOCATIONS ACROSS THE EXTREME NORTH AND NORTHEAST PORTIONS OF THE
STATE CLOSE TO RECORD MAX TEMPS. FORECAST IS IN GOOD SHAPE...NO
UPDATES PLANNED.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION /230 AM MST/...HIGH PRESSURE WAS CENTERED OVER
TEXAS WITH LOW PRESSURE APPROACHING THE WEST COAST DURING THE EARLY
MORNING HOURS.

FOR TODAY INTO MONDAY...THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE ACROSS THE
WESTERN UNITED STATES, BRUSHING ARIZONA. LIMITED MOISTURE WILL BE
DRAWN NORTHWARD BEFORE THE SYSTEM HEADS EASTWARD SUNDAY NIGHT. THE
RESULT WILL BE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LATER
THIS AFTERNOON FROM ABOUT PRESCOTT AND FLAGSTAFF NORTHWESTWARD. ON
SUNDAY, PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL SHIFT TO THE HIGHER TERRAIN FROM
FLAGSTAFF EASTWARD. A STRAY THUNDERSTORM WILL STILL BE POSSIBLE. DRY
CONDITIONS BY MONDAY. BREEZY AFTERNOON WIND A COOLER DAYTIME
TEMPERATURES CAN BE ANTICIPATED EACH DAY.

TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW A DRY WEATHER
PATTERN...WITH TEMPERATURES RISING ABOVE NORMAL AS HIGH PRESSURE
MOVES ACROSS ARIZONA. THE GFS MODEL IS SUGGESTING THAT A LITTLE
EXTRA SOUTHWESTERLY BREEZINESS WILL DEVELOP BY FRIDAY (COMPARED TO
THE EUROPEAN MODEL). OTHER THAN THAT NO SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES.

&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 18Z PACKAGE...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE OVER THE NEXT 24 HRS. SCATTERED CU/ALTO CU WILL MOVE ACROSS
THE AREA TODAY WITH A FEW LIGHT -SHRA/-TSRA POSSIBLE OVER THE HIGH
TERRAIN. SOUTHWEST WINDS BECOMING 10-15 KTS WITH GUSTS UP TO 25
KTS...DECREASING AFTER SUNSET. AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR
AMENDMENTS.


&&

.FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC.........BAK/MCCOLLUM
AVIATION.......MCS/RR

FOR NORTHERN ARIZONA WEATHER INFORMATION VISIT
WEATHER.GOV/FLAGSTAFF







000
FXUS65 KPSR 251542
AFDPSR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PHOENIX AZ
842 AM MST SAT OCT 25 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL GRADUALLY TRANSITION EAST OF THE AREA TODAY...BUT
NOT BEFORE SUPPORTING ANOTHER ROUND OF WELL-ABOVE AVERAGE HIGH
TEMPERATURES. A COOLING TREND IS FROM SUNDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AS
LOW PRESSURE MOVES INLAND INTO THE GREAT BASIN...WITH TEMPERATURES
FALLING BACK TO NEAR SEASONAL NORMALS. A RETURN TO ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES IS THEN EXPECTED FROM WEDNESDAY ONWARD THROUGH THE END
OF NEXT WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE BECOMES REESTABLISHED ACROSS THE
WESTERN STATES.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
CONSIDERABLE CU FIELDS ALREADY NOTED ON AREA WEBCAMS AND THE FIRST
FEW FRAMES OF VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY THIS AM. NEIGHBOR AM RAOBS
AND FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE MOISTURE MOSTLY THROUGHOUT THE MID
LEVELS AROUND 700MB...WITH DRY SUB-CLOUD LAYERS/INVERTED V SOUNDING
TRACES BELOW. THIS SOMEWHAT NARROW MOISTURE LAYER...ALTHOUGH MOIST
ENOUGH TO WARRANT 3-4 STANDARD DEV ABOVE NORMAL ON NAEFS ANOMALIES
TABLES TODAY...WILL PERSIST LAYERS OF CU THROUGHOUT THE DAY AREAWIDE
AS MOISTURE CONTINUES TO TRACK NORTHWARD IN RESPONSE TO LOW PRESSURE
MOVING INTO THE GREAT BASIN. WITH PWATS STILL PROGGED TO NEAR THE 1
INCH MARK...CANNOT RULE OUT VIRGA AND MAYBE AN ISOLATED SPRINKLE TO
TWO OUT OF THE SOME OF THE THICKER CLOUDS THROUGH THE DAYLIGHT
HOURS...BUT NOT ENOUGH COVERAGE TO WARRANT ANY WEATHER-GENERATING
POPS IN FOR THE GRIDS TODAY.

HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE...RESPONSIBLE FOR OUR LATEST STRETCH OF ABOVE
NORMAL TEMPERATURES...HAS BEGUN TO TRANSITION EASTWARD AS PACIFIC
LOW PRESSURE TROUGH APPROACHES THE WA/OR COAST. PROGRESSION OF
LOWERING 500MB HEIGHTS IN RESPONSE TO THE TROUGH ARE ALREADY AHEAD
12Z GFS/NAM FORECASTS AND COOLING IN THE MODEL SOUNDING PROFILES ALSO
SEEM TO BE JUST A FEW DEGREES WARMER/BEHIND THAN 12Z RAOBS. THOSE
FACTORS...COUPLED WITH THE PERIODS OF CLOUDINESS SHOULD SUPPORT A FEW
DEGREES OF COOLING AT THE SURFACE TODAY. WHILE TEMPERATURES ARE
MOSTLY SHY OF RECORDS TODAY...THEY WILL STILL BE 8 TO 10 DEGREES
ABOVE NORMAL.

MINOR UPDATES WERE NEEDED TO ALIGN THE SKY COVER GRIDS TO CURRENT
TRENDS WHILE SOLIDLY PLACING MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA INTO PARTLY
SUNNY TO PARTLY CLOUDY WORDING FOR MUCH OF THE DAY. CU FIELDS SHOULD
TRANSITION EASTWARD THROUGH THE DAY...BUT ANOTHER AREA OF PACIFIC
MOISTURE IN THE MID TO HIGH LEVELS MAY STREAM OVER THE AREA TONIGHT
FROM THE SOUTHWEST...PERSISTING SOME AREAS OF CIRRUS OVERNIGHT. NO
OTHER UPDATES NEEDED...REST OF FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK.

&&

.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION /ISSUED AT 300 AM MST/PDT...
THE STRONG RIDGING ALOFT THAT BROUGHT RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES TO
SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA YESTERDAY IS NOW BEGINNING TO WEAKEN AND SHIFT
OFF TO THE EAST AS A RATHER STRONG UPPER TROF BEGINS TO PUSH INLAND
INTO CENTRAL/NORTHERN CA. IT APPEARS THAT ONE MORE DAY OF NEAR-RECORD
HIGHS IS IN THE CARDS FOR SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA TODAY. HOWEVER...A
COMBINATION OF INCREASING CLOUDINESS...A DEGREE OR SO OF COOLING IN
THE 850-700 MB LAYER...AND A SLIGHT LOWERING OF 500MB HEIGHTS SHOULD
KEEP PHOENIX SKY HARBOR A COUPLE OF DEGREES SHORT OF TODAY/S RECORD
HIGH OF 96F.

SCATTERED TO BROKEN MID-HIGH LEVEL CLOUD LAYERS...A RESULT OF A
MOISTURE PLUME THAT IS EXPECTED TO BRIEFLY SURGE NORTHWARD AHEAD OF
THE APPROACHING UPPER TROF...ARE EXPECTED TO PROGRESS EASTWARD
ACROSS ARIZONA TODAY AND TONIGHT. ALTHOUGH PWATS COULD BRIEFLY
REACH/EXCEED 1 INCH ACROSS SOUTHERN ARIZONA TODAY...A DRY SUBCLOUD
LAYER IS EXPECTED TO LIMIT ANY RAINFALL TO AN ISOLATED
SPRINKLE...WITH ONLY A REMOTE CHANCE THAT ANY LOCATION WILL SEE
MEASURABLE RAINFALL. THE APPROACHING TROF WILL ALSO INCREASE THE
USUAL AFTERNOON WESTERLY BREEZES A BIT ACROSS SE CA AND SW AZ...BUT
SUSTAINED WIND SPEED ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN MAINLY AOB 10 KTS. A
SLOW DRYING/CLEARING TREND IS THEN EXPECTED ON SUNDAY AS THE MAIN
MOISTURE PLUME MOVES OFF TO THE EAST AS DRIER AIR BEGINS TO MOVE
INTO THE REGION FROM THE NORTHWEST.

ALTHOUGH A COOLING TREND IS EXPECTED FROM SUNDAY ONWARD INTO
TUESDAY AS THE LONG-WAVE UPPER-LEVEL TROF SHIFTS EASTWARD ACROSS THE
GREAT BASIN INTO THE CENTRAL ROCKIES...IT STILL APPEARS THAT
TEMPERATURES WILL ONLY FALL TO AROUND...OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE SEASONAL
NORMALS ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY...SINCE 850MB TEMPERATURES ARE ONLY
EXPECTED TO FALL ABOUT 4-5C FROM TODAY/S READINGS...WITH EVEN LESS
COOLING INDICATED AT 700 AND 500MB. SKIES ARE EXPECTED TO BE MOSTLY
SUNNY THROUGH THIS PERIOD AS PWATS FALL INTO THE 0.40-0.60 INCH
RANGE.

AS FAR AS THE FORECAST OF THE MIDDLE AND END OF NEXT WEEK IS
CONCERNED...THE GFS IS NOW COMING INTO BETTER AGREEMENT WITH THE
EURO ON THE IDEA OF A RETURN TO WARMER TEMPERATURES AS HIGH PRESSURE
REBUILDS BACK OVER THE REGION...BUT IT IS STILL NOT AS AGGRESSIVE AS
THE EURO IS ON THE MAGNITUDE OF THE UPCOMING WARMING TREND. WHILE
THE EURO CONTINUES TO PUSH HIGH TEMPERATURES BACK INTO THE LOW TO
MID 90S ACROSS THE LOWER DESERTS BY THE END OF NEXT WEEK...THE GFS
STILL HOLDS HIGHS BACK DOWN IN THE UPPER 80S DUE TO ITS FORECAST OF
SOMEWHAT LOWER 500MB HEIGHTS. IT THIS POINT...STILL GIVING THE NOD
TO THE BETTER-PERFORMING EURO...WITH MANY LOWER DESERT LOCATIONS
SEEING AT LEAST 90F ON FRIDAY AND SATURDAY UNDER MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES
WITH LIGHT WINDS.

&&

.AVIATION...
SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA INCLUDING KPHX...KIWA AND KSDL...SOUTHEAST
CALIFORNIA AND SOUTHWEST ARIZONA INCLUDING KIPL AND KBLH...

MOISTURE SPREADING NORTHWARD AHEAD OF A UPPER LOW CENTER THAT WILL
BE MOVING INLAND INTO CENTRAL/NORTHERN CA IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE
SCATTERED-BROKEN MID-HIGH CLOUD LAYERS TODAY AND TONIGHT...WITH THE
LOWEST CIGS/GREATEST CLOUD COVERAGE TO BE ACROSS SOUTH-CENTRAL
ARIZONA...WITH EVEN AN OUTSIDE CHANCE OF A FEW SPRINKLES AT ONE...OR
MORE OF THE PHX AREA TERMINALS. THE AFOREMENTIONED UPPER LOW CENTER
IS ALSO EXPECTED TO ENHANCE TYPICAL AFTERNOON WESTERLY WINDS
TODAY...BUT SPEEDS ARE STILL EXPECTED TO REMAIN MAINLY AOB 10
KTS...WITH TYPICAL DIURNAL TRENDS RETURNING TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY.

AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDED TAFS.

&&

.CLIMATE...
RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES

DATE         PHOENIX
----         -------
SAT OCT 25   96 IN 1990

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...
AFTER A BRIEF PERIOD OF NEAR-NORMAL TEMPERATURES ON MONDAY AND
TUESDAY...A WARMING TREND IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE REST OF NEXT WEEK
AS HIGH PRESSURE SLOWLY BUILDS BACK EASTWARD ACROSS THE
REGION...WITH MANY LOWER DESERT LOCATIONS SEEING HIGHS NEAR 90F BY
FRIDAY. MAINLY CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE
FORECAST PERIOD...WITH AFTERNOON HUMIDITIES FALLING INTO THE MID
TEENS TO LOWER 20 PERCENT RANGE EACH DAY...WITH GOOD OVERNIGHT
RECOVERIES EXPECTED.

&&

.PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

AZ...NONE.

CA...NONE.

&&

$$

VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/PHOENIX

DISCUSSION...NOLTE
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...PERCHA
AVIATION....PERCHA
FIRE WEATHER...PERCHA






000
FXUS65 KTWC 251516
AFDTWC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ
816 AM MST SAT OCT 25 2014

.SYNOPSIS...TODAY WILL SEE ANOTHER ROUND OF NEAR RECORD TO RECORD
HIGH TEMPERATURES. A COOLING TREND WILL THEN OCCUR BY MONDAY AS A
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES NORTH OF THE AREA. AFTERNOON HIGH
TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR SEASONAL AVERAGES TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY...WARMING TO ABOVE NORMAL BY THE END OF THE WEEK AS HIGH
PRESSURE ALOFT BUILDS BACK ACROSS THE WESTERN STATES.

&&

.DISCUSSION...EXPECT SOME CLOUD COVER TODAY...ESPECIALLY OUT WEST
AS SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT USHERS SOME MID LEVEL MOISTURE INTO
THE AREA. THIS WILL DO LITTLE TO PREVENT ANOTHER NEAR RECORD HEAT
DAY. TOMORROW HOWEVER IS EXPECTED TO BE COOLER...WITH MONDAY BEING
THE COOLEST DAY IN THE FORECAST. THIS IS DUE TO AN UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH SLIDING ACROSS THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST OVER THE NEXT COUPLE
OF DAYS. ONCE THIS TROUGH SLIDES THRU HOWEVER TEMPERATURES WILL
AGAIN CLIMB BACK UP AS HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO SLIDE IN BY
LATE WEEK.

AT THIS TIME THE ONLY SHOT FOR PRECIP LOOKS TO BE SUNDAY AS THE
AFOREMENTIONED TROUGH BEGINS TO PUSH THRU. BY SUNDAY EVENING
HOWEVER DRIER AIR WILL ADVECT INTO THE AREA WHICH SHOULD LIMIT
DEVELOPMENT. FOR THIS REASON WILL CONTINUE PREVIOUS LOW END SLIGHT
CHANCE POPS FOR SUNDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...VALID THRU 26/18Z. VFR CONDITIONS AT ALL TERMINALS
WITH DIURNALLY TERRAIN DRIVEN SURFACE WINDS LESS THAN 10 KTS.
AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR TAF AMENDMENTS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT WILL
RESULT IN DRY CONDITIONS AND NEAR RECORD TEMPERATURES TODAY...WITH
DIURNALLY TERRAIN DRIVEN 20-FOOT WINDS WILL BE LESS THAN 15 MPH.
BREEZY WEST-NORTHWEST WINDS WINDS ARE LIKELY SUNDAY AND MONDAY AS
A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE PASSES NORTH OF THE AREA. DURING THAT
TIME PERIOD...A SHOWER CANNOT BE RULED OUT OVER THE HIGHER PEAKS
NEAR THE NEW MEXICO BORDER. SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES CAN BE
EXPECTED BEHIND THE TROUGH THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.CLIMATE...WITH SEVEN DAYS LEFT IN OCTOBER...TUCSON CURRENTLY RANKS
AS THE 11TH WARMEST OCTOBER ON RECORD...HEADED FOR ANOTHER TOP 10
WARMEST MONTH.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 215 AM MST SAT OCT 25 2014/

DISCUSSION...ANOTHER UNSEASONABLY WARM DAY ACROSS SE AZ WITH A FEW
LOCAL AT OR NEAR RECORD HIGHS FOR OCT 25. MODELS ARE SUGGESTING AN
INCREASE IN MOISTURE ACROSS THE AREA TODAY IN ADVANCE OF A WEAK
UPPER LEVEL TROF THAT WAS OFF NRN BAJA COAST THIS MORNING. ALREADY
STARTING TO SEE SOME CLOUDS MOVE INTO SW AZ FROM THE GLFCA THIS
MORNING. MODELS CROSS SECTIONS SUGGEST THIS MOISTURE WILL BE IN THE
800-650 MB LAYER WITH DRY CONDITIONS BELOW. SO A SUNNY/MOSTLY SUNNY
START TO THE MORNING GIVING WAY TO A MOSTLY SUNNY TO PARTLY CLOUDY
AFTERNOON.

WEST COAST TROF TODAY WILL MOVE THROUGH THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST
SUNDAY INTO MONDAY...BRINGING RELIEF TO THE CURRENT LATE OCTOBER
HOT SPELL. HIGHS BY MONDAY WILL BE NEAR NORMAL. DRY NW FLOW ON
TUESDAY AS A DRY UPPER LEVEL TROF PUSHES THROUGH.

TURNING WARMER WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY AS UPPER RIDGE BUILDS OVER
THE AREA. ECMWF AGAIN WARMER THAN THE GFS. CURRENT FORECAST MAY NOT
BE WARM ENOUGH. SOMETHING TO WATCH.

&&

.TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...MEADOWS

VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...YOUTUBE...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/TUCSON







000
FXUS65 KFGZ 251149
AFDFGZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ
230 AM MST SAT OCT 25 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL SHIFT TO THE EAST AND ALLOW FOR COOLER
TEMPERATURES AND BREEZY CONDITIONS OVER THE NORTHLAND THIS WEEKEND.
THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS LATER TODAY AND ON SUNDAY AS
MOISTURE BRIEFLY MOVES INTO THE AREA FROM THE SOUTH.
OTHERWISE...FAIR WEATHER IS EXPECTED TO RETURN ON MONDAY AND
CONTINUE THROUGH NEXT WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
HIGH PRESSURE WAS CENTERED OVER TEXAS WITH LOW PRESSURE APPROACHING
THE WEST COAST DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS.

FOR TODAY INTO MONDAY...THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE ACROSS THE
WESTERN UNITED STATES, BRUSHING ARIZONA. LIMITED MOISTURE WILL BE
DRAWN NORTHWARD BEFORE THE SYSTEM HEADS EASTWARD SUNDAY NIGHT. THE
RESULT WILL BE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LATER
THIS AFTERNOON FROM ABOUT PRESCOTT AND FLAGSTAFF NORTHWESTWARD. ON
SUNDAY, PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL SHIFT TO THE HIGHER TERRAIN FROM
FLAGSTAFF EASTWARD. A STRAY THUNDERSTORM WILL STILL BE POSSIBLE. DRY
CONDITIONS BY MONDAY. BREEZY AFTERNOON WIND A COOLER DAYTIME
TEMPERATURES CAN BE ANTICIPATED EACH DAY.

TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW A DRY WEATHER
PATTERN...WITH TEMPERATURES RISING ABOVE NORMAL AS HIGH PRESSURE
MOVES ACROSS ARIZONA. THE GFS MODEL IS SUGGESTING THAT A LITTLE
EXTRA SOUTHWESTERLY BREEZINESS WILL DEVELOP BY FRIDAY (COMPARED TO
THE EUROPEAN MODEL). OTHER THAN THAT NO SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES.

&&

.AVIATION...
FOR THE 12Z PACKAGE...PRIMARILY VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE OVER
THE NEXT 24 HRS. PRESCRIBED BURN ACTIVITY WILL LIKELY CAUSE IFR VIS
IN SMOKE AT KGCN OVERNIGHT TONIGHT. LIGHT WINDS BECOMING SOUTHWEST
10-15 KTS GUSTING 20-25 KTS AFT 18Z SATURDAY. SLIGHT CHANCES FOR
-SHRA EXIST OVER HIGHER TERRAIN ALONG THE MOGOLLON RIM. AVIATION
DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDMENTS.

&&

.FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC.........MCCOLLUM
AVIATION.......RR

FOR NORTHERN ARIZONA WEATHER INFORMATION VISIT
WEATHER.GOV/FLAGSTAFF







000
FXUS65 KFGZ 251149
AFDFGZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ
230 AM MST SAT OCT 25 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL SHIFT TO THE EAST AND ALLOW FOR COOLER
TEMPERATURES AND BREEZY CONDITIONS OVER THE NORTHLAND THIS WEEKEND.
THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS LATER TODAY AND ON SUNDAY AS
MOISTURE BRIEFLY MOVES INTO THE AREA FROM THE SOUTH.
OTHERWISE...FAIR WEATHER IS EXPECTED TO RETURN ON MONDAY AND
CONTINUE THROUGH NEXT WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
HIGH PRESSURE WAS CENTERED OVER TEXAS WITH LOW PRESSURE APPROACHING
THE WEST COAST DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS.

FOR TODAY INTO MONDAY...THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE ACROSS THE
WESTERN UNITED STATES, BRUSHING ARIZONA. LIMITED MOISTURE WILL BE
DRAWN NORTHWARD BEFORE THE SYSTEM HEADS EASTWARD SUNDAY NIGHT. THE
RESULT WILL BE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LATER
THIS AFTERNOON FROM ABOUT PRESCOTT AND FLAGSTAFF NORTHWESTWARD. ON
SUNDAY, PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL SHIFT TO THE HIGHER TERRAIN FROM
FLAGSTAFF EASTWARD. A STRAY THUNDERSTORM WILL STILL BE POSSIBLE. DRY
CONDITIONS BY MONDAY. BREEZY AFTERNOON WIND A COOLER DAYTIME
TEMPERATURES CAN BE ANTICIPATED EACH DAY.

TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW A DRY WEATHER
PATTERN...WITH TEMPERATURES RISING ABOVE NORMAL AS HIGH PRESSURE
MOVES ACROSS ARIZONA. THE GFS MODEL IS SUGGESTING THAT A LITTLE
EXTRA SOUTHWESTERLY BREEZINESS WILL DEVELOP BY FRIDAY (COMPARED TO
THE EUROPEAN MODEL). OTHER THAN THAT NO SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES.

&&

.AVIATION...
FOR THE 12Z PACKAGE...PRIMARILY VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE OVER
THE NEXT 24 HRS. PRESCRIBED BURN ACTIVITY WILL LIKELY CAUSE IFR VIS
IN SMOKE AT KGCN OVERNIGHT TONIGHT. LIGHT WINDS BECOMING SOUTHWEST
10-15 KTS GUSTING 20-25 KTS AFT 18Z SATURDAY. SLIGHT CHANCES FOR
-SHRA EXIST OVER HIGHER TERRAIN ALONG THE MOGOLLON RIM. AVIATION
DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDMENTS.

&&

.FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC.........MCCOLLUM
AVIATION.......RR

FOR NORTHERN ARIZONA WEATHER INFORMATION VISIT
WEATHER.GOV/FLAGSTAFF







000
FXUS65 KFGZ 251005
AFDFGZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ
230 AM MST SAT OCT 25 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL SHIFT TO THE EAST AND ALLOW FOR COOLER
TEMPERATURES AND BREEZY CONDITIONS OVER THE NORTHLAND THIS WEEKEND.
THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS LATER TODAY AND ON SUNDAY AS
MOISTURE BRIEFLY MOVES INTO THE AREA FROM THE SOUTH.
OTHERWISE...FAIR WEATHER IS EXPECTED TO RETURN ON MONDAY AND
CONTINUE THROUGH NEXT WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
HIGH PRESSURE WAS CENTERED OVER TEXAS WITH LOW PRESSURE APPROACHING
THE WEST COAST DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS.

FOR TODAY INTO MONDAY...THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE ACROSS THE
WESTERN UNITED STATES, BRUSHING ARIZONA. LIMITED MOISTURE WILL BE
DRAWN NORTHWARD BEFORE THE SYSTEM HEADS EASTWARD SUNDAY NIGHT. THE
RESULT WILL BE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LATER
THIS AFTERNOON FROM ABOUT PRESCOTT AND FLAGSTAFF NORTHWESTWARD. ON
SUNDAY, PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL SHIFT TO THE HIGHER TERRAIN FROM
FLAGSTAFF EASTWARD. A STRAY THUNDERSTORM WILL STILL BE POSSIBLE. DRY
CONDITIONS BY MONDAY. BREEZY AFTERNOON WIND A COOLER DAYTIME
TEMPERATURES CAN BE ANTICIPATED EACH DAY.

TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW A DRY WEATHER
PATTERN...WITH TEMPERATURES RISING ABOVE NORMAL AS HIGH PRESSURE
MOVES ACROSS ARIZONA. THE GFS MODEL IS SUGGESTING THAT A LITTLE
EXTRA SOUTHWESTERLY BREEZINESS WILL DEVELOP BY FRIDAY (COMPARED TO
THE EUROPEAN MODEL). OTHER THAN THAT NO SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES.

&&

.AVIATION...
FOR THE 12Z PACKAGE...PRIMARILY VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE OVER
THE NEXT 24 HRS. PRESCRIBED BURN ACTIVITY WILL LIKELY CAUSE IFR VIS
IN SMOKE AT KGCN OVERNIGHT TONIGHT. LIGHT WINDS BECOMING SOUTHWEST
10-15 KTS GUSTING 20-25 KTS AFT 18Z SATURDAY. SLIGHT CHANCES FOR
-SHRA EXIST OVER HIGHER TERRAIN ALONG THE MOGOLLON RIM. AVIATION
DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDMENTS.

&&

.FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC.........MCCOLLUM
AVIATION.......RR

FOR NORTHERN ARIZONA WEATHER INFORMATION VISIT
WEATHER.GOV/FLAGSTAFF







000
FXUS65 KPSR 250959
AFDPSR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PHOENIX AZ
300 AM MST SAT OCT 25 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
STRONG HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WILL BRING ONE MORE DAY OF WELL-ABOVE
NORMAL TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE REGION TODAY...WITH NEAR-RECORD HIGHS
POSSIBLE AT SOME LOCATIONS ACROSS SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA. A COOLING
TREND IS THEN EXPECTED FROM SUNDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AS LOW
PRESSURE MOVES INLAND INTO THE GREAT BASIN...WITH TEMPERATURES
FALLING BACK TO NEAR SEASONAL NORMALS. A RETURN TO ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES IS THEN EXPECTED FROM WEDNESDAY ONWARD THROUGH THE END
OF NEXT WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE BECOMES REESTABLISHED ACROSS THE
WESTERN STATES.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
THE STRONG RIDGING ALOFT THAT BROUGHT RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES TO
SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA YESTERDAY IS NOW BEGINNING TO WEAKEN AND SHIFT
OFF TO THE EAST AS A RATHER STRONG UPPER TROF BEGINS TO PUSH INLAND
INTO CENTRAL/NORTHERN CA. IT APPEARS THAT ONE MORE DAY OF
NEAR-RECORD HIGHS IS IN THE CARDS FOR SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA TODAY.
HOWEVER...A COMBINATION OF INCREASING CLOUDINESS...A DEGREE OR SO OF
COOLING IN THE 850-700 MB LAYER...AND A SLIGHT LOWERING OF 500MB
HEIGHTS SHOULD KEEP PHOENIX SKY HARBOR A COUPLE OF DEGREES SHORT OF
TODAY/S RECORD HIGH OF 96F.

SCATTERED TO BROKEN MID-HIGH LEVEL CLOUD LAYERS...A RESULT OF A
MOISTURE PLUME THAT IS EXPECTED TO BRIEFLY SURGE NORTHWARD AHEAD OF
THE APPROACHING UPPER TROF...ARE EXPECTED TO PROGRESS EASTWARD
ACROSS ARIZONA TODAY AND TONIGHT. ALTHOUGH PWATS COULD BRIEFLY
REACH/EXCEED 1 INCH ACROSS SOUTHERN ARIZONA TODAY...A DRY SUBCLOUD
LAYER IS EXPECTED TO LIMIT ANY RAINFALL TO AN ISOLATED
SPRINKLE...WITH ONLY A REMOTE CHANCE THAT ANY LOCATION WILL SEE
MEASURABLE RAINFALL. THE APPROACHING TROF WILL ALSO INCREASE THE
USUAL AFTERNOON WESTERLY BREEZES A BIT ACROSS SE CA AND SW AZ...BUT
SUSTAINED WIND SPEED ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN MAINLY AOB 10 KTS. A
SLOW DRYING/CLEARING TREND IS THEN EXPECTED ON SUNDAY AS THE MAIN
MOISTURE PLUME MOVES OFF TO THE EAST AS DRIER AIR BEGINS TO MOVE
INTO THE REGION FROM THE NORTHWEST.

ALTHOUGH A COOLING TREND IS EXPECTED FROM SUNDAY ONWARD INTO
TUESDAY AS THE LONG-WAVE UPPER-LEVEL TROF SHIFTS EASTWARD ACROSS THE
GREAT BASIN INTO THE CENTRAL ROCKIES...IT STILL APPEARS THAT
TEMPERATURES WILL ONLY FALL TO AROUND...OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE SEASONAL
NORMALS ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY...SINCE 850MB TEMPERATURES ARE ONLY
EXPECTED TO FALL ABOUT 4-5C FROM TODAY/S READINGS...WITH EVEN LESS
COOLING INDICATED AT 700 AND 500MB. SKIES ARE EXPECTED TO BE MOSTLY
SUNNY THROUGH THIS PERIOD AS PWATS FALL INTO THE 0.40-0.60 INCH
RANGE.


AS FAR AS THE FORECAST OF THE MIDDLE AND END OF NEXT WEEK IS
CONCERNED...THE GFS IS NOW COMING INTO BETTER AGREEMENT WITH THE
EURO ON THE IDEA OF A RETURN TO WARMER TEMPERATURES AS HIGH PRESSURE
REBUILDS BACK OVER THE REGION...BUT IT IS STILL NOT AS AGGRESSIVE AS
THE EURO IS ON THE MAGNITUDE OF THE UPCOMING WARMING TREND. WHILE
THE EURO CONTINUES TO PUSH HIGH TEMPERATURES BACK INTO THE LOW TO
MID 90S ACROSS THE LOWER DESERTS BY THE END OF NEXT WEEK...THE GFS
STILL HOLDS HIGHS BACK DOWN IN THE UPPER 80S DUE TO ITS FORECAST OF
SOMEWHAT LOWER 500MB HEIGHTS. IT THIS POINT...STILL GIVING THE NOD
TO THE BETTER-PERFORMING EURO...WITH MANY LOWER DESERT LOCATIONS
SEEING AT LEAST 90F ON FRIDAY AND SATURDAY UNDER MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES
WITH LIGHT WINDS.

&&

.AVIATION...
SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA INCLUDING KPHX...KIWA AND KSDL...SOUTHEAST
CALIFORNIA AND SOUTHWEST ARIZONA INCLUDING KIPL AND KBLH...

MOISTURE SPREADING NORTHWARD AHEAD OF A UPPER LOW CENTER THAT WILL
BE MOVING INLAND INTO CENTRAL/NORTHERN CA IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE
SCATTERED-BROKEN MID-HIGH CLOUD LAYERS TODAY AND TONIGHT...WITH THE
LOWEST CIGS/GREATEST CLOUD COVERAGE TO BE ACROSS SOUTH-CENTRAL
ARIZONA...WITH EVEN AN OUTSIDE CHANCE OF A FEW SPRINKLES AT ONE...OR
MORE OF THE PHX AREA TERMINALS. THE AFOREMENTIONED UPPER LOW CENTER
IS ALSO EXPECTED TO ENHANCE TYPICAL AFTERNOON WESTERLY WINDS
TODAY...BUT SPEEDS ARE STILL EXPECTED TO REMAIN MAINLY AOB 10
KTS...WITH TYPICAL DIURNAL TRENDS RETURNING TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY.

AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDED TAFS.

&&

.CLIMATE...
RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES

DATE         PHOENIX
----         -------
SAT OCT 25   96 IN 1990

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...
AFTER A BRIEF PERIOD OF NEAR-NORMAL TEMPERATURES ON MONDAY AND
TUESDAY...A WARMING TREND IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE REST OF NEXT WEEK
AS HIGH PRESSURE SLOWLY BUILDS BACK EASTWARD ACROSS THE
REGION...WITH MANY LOWER DESERT LOCATIONS SEEING HIGHS NEAR 90F BY
FRIDAY. MAINLY CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE
FORECAST PERIOD...WITH AFTERNOON HUMIDITIES FALLING INTO THE MID
TEENS TO LOWER 20 PERCENT RANGE EACH DAY...WITH GOOD OVERNIGHT
RECOVERIES EXPECTED.

&&

.PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

AZ...NONE.

CA...NONE.

&&

$$

VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/PHOENIX

DISCUSSION...PERCHA
CLIMATE...PERCHA
AVIATION...PERCHA
FIRE WEATHER...PERCHA






000
FXUS65 KTWC 250916
AFDTWC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ
215 AM MST SAT OCT 25 2014

.SYNOPSIS...TODAY WILL SEE ANOTHER ROUND OF NEAR RECORD TO RECORD
HIGH TEMPERATURES. A COOLING TREND WILL THEN OCCUR BY MONDAY
AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES NORTH OF THE AREA. AFTERNOON HIGH
TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR SEASONAL AVERAGES TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY...WARMING TO ABOVE NORMAL BY THE END OF THE WEEK AS HIGH
PRESSURE ALOFT BUILDS BACK ACROSS THE WESTERN STATES.

&&

.DISCUSSION...ANOTHER UNSEASONABLY WARM DAY ACROSS SE AZ WITH A FEW
LOCAL AT OR NEAR RECORD HIGHS FOR OCT 25. MODELS ARE SUGGESTING AN
INCREASE IN MOISTURE ACROSS THE AREA TODAY IN ADVANCE OF A WEAK
UPPER LEVEL TROF THAT WAS OFF NRN BAJA COAST THIS MORNING. ALREADY
STARTING TO SEE SOME CLOUDS MOVE INTO SW AZ FROM THE GLFCA THIS
MORNING. MODELS CROSS SECTIONS SUGGEST THIS MOISTURE WILL BE IN THE
800-650 MB LAYER WITH DRY CONDITIONS BELOW. SO A SUNNY/MOSTLY SUNNY
START TO THE MORNING GIVING WAY TO A MOSTLY SUNNY TO PARTLY CLOUDY
AFTERNOON.

WEST COAST TROF TODAY WILL MOVE THROUGH THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST
SUNDAY INTO MONDAY...BRINGING RELIEF TO THE CURRENT LATE OCTOBER HOT
SPELL. HIGHS BY MONDAY WILL BE NEAR NORMAL. DRY NW FLOW ON TUESDAY
AS A DRY UPPER LEVEL TROF PUSHES THROUGH.

TURNING WARMER WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY AS UPPER RIDGE BUILDS OVER
THE AREA. ECMWF AGAIN WARMER THAN THE GFS. CURRENT FORECAST MAY NOT
BE WARM ENOUGH. SOMETHING TO WATCH.

&&

.AVIATION...VALID THRU 26/12Z.
VFR CONDITIONS AT ALL TERMINALS WITH DIURNALLY TERRAIN DRIVEN
SURFACE WINDS LESS THAN 10 KTS. AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR
TAF AMENDMENTS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT WILL RESULT
IN DRY CONDITIONS AND NEAR RECORD TEMPERATURES THROUGH SATURDAY.
DIURNALLY TERRAIN DRIVEN 20-FOOT WINDS WILL BE LESS THAN 15 MPH
THROUGH SATURDAY. BREEZY WEST-NORTHWEST WINDS WINDS ARE LIKELY
SUNDAY AND MONDAY AS A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE PASSES NORTH OF THE
AREA. DURING THAT TIME PERIOD...A SHOWER CANNOT BE RULED OUT OVER
THE HIGHER PEAKS NEAR THE NEW MEXICO BORDER. SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES
CAN BE EXPECTED BEHIND THE TROUGH THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.CLIMATE...WITH SEVEN DAYS LEFT IN OCTOBER...TUCSON CURRENTLY RANKS
AS THE 11TH WARMEST OCTOBER ON RECORD...HEADED FOR ANOTHER TOP 10
WARMEST MONTH.

&&

.TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

$$

VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...YOUTUBE...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/TUCSON







000
FXUS65 KFGZ 250358
AFDFGZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ
858 PM MST FRI OCT 24 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL SHIFT TO THE EAST AND ALLOW FOR COOLER
TEMPERATURES AND BREEZY CONDITIONS OVER THE NORTHLAND THIS
WEEKEND. THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS LATE SATURDAY AND
EARLY SUNDAY AS MOISTURE BRIEFLY MOVES INTO THE AREA FROM THE
SOUTH. OTHERWISE...FAIR WEATHER IS EXPECTED TO RETURN ON MONDAY
AND CONTINUE THROUGH NEXT WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
FORECAST IN GOOD SHAPE WITH NO CHANGES THIS EVENING.

&&

.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION /240 PM MST/...
EXPECT ANOTHER CLEAR NIGHT WITH CALM WINDS BEFORE A CHANGE IN THE
WEATHER ON SATURDAY AND SUNDAY.

THIS WEEKEND...A BROAD TROUGH WILL DEVELOP OVER AND MOVE THROUGH
THE GREAT BASIN. WINDS WILL INCREASE OVER NORTHERN ARIZONA IN
RESPONSE TO THE TROUGHING...WITH SOUTHWEST WINDS IN THE 15 TO 25
MPH RANGE AND GUSTS FROM 25 TO 35 MPH...WITH THE FASTEST WINDS ON
SUNDAY. PROGS ARE SHOWING SOME LOW LEVEL MOISTURE MOVING NORTHWARD
LATE SATURDAY AND EARLY SUNDAY AHEAD OF A WEAK DISTURBANCE
CURRENTLY AROUND 25N 120W. THIS FEATURE WILL WEAKEN...AND MOVE
THROUGH ARIZONA WITHIN THE STRENGTHENING SW FLOW. WITH THIS
MOISTURE AND ATTENDANT WEAK ASCENT...WE EXPECT AN INCREASE IN
CLOUDS AND A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS...AND HAVE ADDED A SLIGHT POPS
GENERALLY OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN LATE SATURDAY AND EARLY SUNDAY.
COOLER AIR ASSOCIATED WITH THE PASSING TROUGH WILL CAUSE MAX
TEMPERATURES TO FALL TO SEASONAL NORMALS LEVELS SUNDAY AND MONDAY.

TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. MODELS ARE CONSISTENT WITH INDICATING A
DRY WEATHER PATTERN...WITH TEMPERATURES RISING ABOVE SEASONAL
NORMALS ONCE AGAIN AS A STRONG RIDGE DEVELOPS OVER THE WESTERN
STATES LATE IN THE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...
FOR THE 06Z PACKAGE...PRIMARILY VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE OVER
THE NEXT 24 HRS. PRESCRIBED BURN ACTIVITY MAY CAUSE LOCAL AREAS OF
REDUCED VIS IN SMOKE NEAR KFLG AND KGCN OVERNIGHT TONIGHT. LIGHT
WINDS BECOMING SOUTHWEST 10-15 KTS GUSTING 20-25 KTS AFT 18Z
SATURDAY. AN ISOLATED -SHRA WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER THE HIGH TERRAIN
BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON. AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR
AMENDMENTS.

&&

.FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC.........KD/BAK
AVIATION.......KD

FOR NORTHERN ARIZONA WEATHER INFORMATION VISIT
WEATHER.GOV/FLAGSTAFF








000
FXUS65 KFGZ 250358
AFDFGZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ
858 PM MST FRI OCT 24 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL SHIFT TO THE EAST AND ALLOW FOR COOLER
TEMPERATURES AND BREEZY CONDITIONS OVER THE NORTHLAND THIS
WEEKEND. THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS LATE SATURDAY AND
EARLY SUNDAY AS MOISTURE BRIEFLY MOVES INTO THE AREA FROM THE
SOUTH. OTHERWISE...FAIR WEATHER IS EXPECTED TO RETURN ON MONDAY
AND CONTINUE THROUGH NEXT WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
FORECAST IN GOOD SHAPE WITH NO CHANGES THIS EVENING.

&&

.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION /240 PM MST/...
EXPECT ANOTHER CLEAR NIGHT WITH CALM WINDS BEFORE A CHANGE IN THE
WEATHER ON SATURDAY AND SUNDAY.

THIS WEEKEND...A BROAD TROUGH WILL DEVELOP OVER AND MOVE THROUGH
THE GREAT BASIN. WINDS WILL INCREASE OVER NORTHERN ARIZONA IN
RESPONSE TO THE TROUGHING...WITH SOUTHWEST WINDS IN THE 15 TO 25
MPH RANGE AND GUSTS FROM 25 TO 35 MPH...WITH THE FASTEST WINDS ON
SUNDAY. PROGS ARE SHOWING SOME LOW LEVEL MOISTURE MOVING NORTHWARD
LATE SATURDAY AND EARLY SUNDAY AHEAD OF A WEAK DISTURBANCE
CURRENTLY AROUND 25N 120W. THIS FEATURE WILL WEAKEN...AND MOVE
THROUGH ARIZONA WITHIN THE STRENGTHENING SW FLOW. WITH THIS
MOISTURE AND ATTENDANT WEAK ASCENT...WE EXPECT AN INCREASE IN
CLOUDS AND A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS...AND HAVE ADDED A SLIGHT POPS
GENERALLY OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN LATE SATURDAY AND EARLY SUNDAY.
COOLER AIR ASSOCIATED WITH THE PASSING TROUGH WILL CAUSE MAX
TEMPERATURES TO FALL TO SEASONAL NORMALS LEVELS SUNDAY AND MONDAY.

TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. MODELS ARE CONSISTENT WITH INDICATING A
DRY WEATHER PATTERN...WITH TEMPERATURES RISING ABOVE SEASONAL
NORMALS ONCE AGAIN AS A STRONG RIDGE DEVELOPS OVER THE WESTERN
STATES LATE IN THE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...
FOR THE 06Z PACKAGE...PRIMARILY VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE OVER
THE NEXT 24 HRS. PRESCRIBED BURN ACTIVITY MAY CAUSE LOCAL AREAS OF
REDUCED VIS IN SMOKE NEAR KFLG AND KGCN OVERNIGHT TONIGHT. LIGHT
WINDS BECOMING SOUTHWEST 10-15 KTS GUSTING 20-25 KTS AFT 18Z
SATURDAY. AN ISOLATED -SHRA WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER THE HIGH TERRAIN
BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON. AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR
AMENDMENTS.

&&

.FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC.........KD/BAK
AVIATION.......KD

FOR NORTHERN ARIZONA WEATHER INFORMATION VISIT
WEATHER.GOV/FLAGSTAFF








000
FXUS65 KTWC 250355
AFDTWC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ
855 PM MST FRI OCT 24 2014

.SYNOPSIS...STRONG HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WILL BRING NEAR RECORD TO
RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES SATURDAY. A COOLING TREND WILL THEN
OCCUR BY MONDAY AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES NORTH OF THE AREA.
THERE MAY BE A STRAY SHOWER OR TWO IN THE WHITE MOUNTAINS AND OVER
THE HIGHER TERRAIN ALONG THE NEW MEXICO BORDER WITH THE PASSAGE OF
THIS SYSTEM LATE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY MONDAY. DRY CONDITIONS
ARE EXPECTED AGAIN NEXT WEEK. AFTERNOON HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE
NEAR SEASONAL AVERAGES TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...WARMING TO ABOVE
NORMAL BY THE END OF THE WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT BUILDS BACK
ACROSS THE WESTERN STATES.

&&

.DISCUSSION...CLEAR SKIES CONTINUED ACROSS THE AREA LATE THIS
EVENING AS A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT REMAINED OVER THE REGION.
THE HIGH PRESSURE WILL RESULT IN ANOTHER DAY OF NEAR RECORD HIGH
TEMPERATURES ON SATURDAY. THE RIDGE WILL SHIFT EASTWARD BY SUNDAY AS
A LOW PRESSURE TROUGH ENTERS THE WEST COAST. THIS WILL BRING A DROP
IN DAYTIME TEMPERATURES FOR SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. CURRENT FORECAST
APPEARED TO HANDLE THESE TRENDS WELL...SO NO UPDATES NECESSARY THIS
EVENING. PLEASE REFER TO THE ADDITIONAL SECTIONS FOR MORE DETAILS.

&&

.AVIATION...VALID THRU 25/06Z.
VFR CONDITIONS AT ALL TERMINALS. CLEAR SKIES AND DIURNALLY TERRAIN
DRIVEN SURFACE WINDS LESS THAN 10 KTS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS SOUTHEAST
ARIZONA. AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR TAF AMENDMENTS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT WILL RESULT
IN DRY CONDITIONS AND NEAR RECORD TEMPERATURES THROUGH SATURDAY.
DIURNALLY TERRAIN DRIVEN 20-FOOT WINDS WILL BE LESS THAN 15 MPH
THROUGH SATURDAY. BREEZY WEST-NORTHWEST WINDS WINDS ARE LIKELY
SUNDAY AND MONDAY AS A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE PASSES NORTH OF THE
AREA. DURING THAT TIME PERIOD...A SHOWER CANNOT BE RULED OUT OVER
THE HIGHER PEAKS NEAR THE NEW MEXICO BORDER. SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES
CAN BE EXPECTED BEHIND THE TROUGH THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...THE RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO SHIFT EAST ON
SATURDAY. HOWEVER...SOUTHWEST FLOW/WAA WILL TAKE PLACE ACROSS THE
REGION AS A TROUGH BEGINS TO DIG SOUTH ALONG THE WEST COAST. EXPECT
AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES TO REMAIN NEARLY UNCHANGED ON SATURDAY. THIS
WILL RESULT IN THE CONTINUATION OF NEAR RECORD OR RECORD HIGH
TEMPERATURES SATURDAY...WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES TOPPING OUT 7-12
DEGREES F ABOVE NORMAL. FOR TUCSON...THE FORECAST HIGH OF 94 DEGREES
F ON SATURDAY WOULD TIE THE OLD RECORD SET IN 1990 AND 1959. EXPECT
A FEW OTHER STATIONS ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA TO TIE/BREAK PREVIOUS
RECORDS DURING THIS UNSEASONABLY WARM PERIOD AS WELL.

A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL THEN PUSH EAST ACROSS THE WESTERN
UNITED STATES LATE SATURDAY INTO EARLY MONDAY...RESULTING IN A
COUPLE OF DEGREES OF COOLING SUNDAY AND MORE SIGNIFICANT COOLING ON
MONDAY. WHILE THE MAIN MOISTURE/DYNAMIC FIELDS STAY WELL NORTH OF
THE STATE...A WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE CURRENTLY LOCATED OVER THE
EASTERN PACIFIC NEAR 120W/25N WILL GET PULLED NORTHWARD ACROSS THE
STATE WITH THE TROUGH PASSAGE. THIS FEATURE...IN COMBINATION WITH
SOME MOISTURE POOLING ALONG THE TROUGH AXIS MAY BE JUST ENOUGH TO
GENERATE A SHOWER OR TWO ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN ALONG NEW MEXICO
BORDER. IN COORDINATION WITH THE OTHER ARIZONA OFFICES...HAVE PUT IN
SLIGHT CHANCE (10%) POPS LATE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY MONDAY IN
THE WHITE MOUNTAINS...WITH LESSER VALUES IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN SOUTH
OF THE WHITE`S ALONG THE NEW MEXICO BORDER.

DRY CONDITIONS AND NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE THEN EXPECTED BEHIND
THE TROUGH PASSAGE TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY OF NEXT WEEK. THE MODELS
THEN INDICATE ANOTHER STRONG RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING OVER
THE EASTERN PACIFIC/SOUTHWEST US LATE NEXT WEEK FOR A RETURN TO
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES.

&&

.TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

$$

VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...YOUTUBE...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/TUCSON







000
FXUS65 KTWC 250355
AFDTWC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ
855 PM MST FRI OCT 24 2014

.SYNOPSIS...STRONG HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WILL BRING NEAR RECORD TO
RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES SATURDAY. A COOLING TREND WILL THEN
OCCUR BY MONDAY AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES NORTH OF THE AREA.
THERE MAY BE A STRAY SHOWER OR TWO IN THE WHITE MOUNTAINS AND OVER
THE HIGHER TERRAIN ALONG THE NEW MEXICO BORDER WITH THE PASSAGE OF
THIS SYSTEM LATE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY MONDAY. DRY CONDITIONS
ARE EXPECTED AGAIN NEXT WEEK. AFTERNOON HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE
NEAR SEASONAL AVERAGES TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...WARMING TO ABOVE
NORMAL BY THE END OF THE WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT BUILDS BACK
ACROSS THE WESTERN STATES.

&&

.DISCUSSION...CLEAR SKIES CONTINUED ACROSS THE AREA LATE THIS
EVENING AS A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT REMAINED OVER THE REGION.
THE HIGH PRESSURE WILL RESULT IN ANOTHER DAY OF NEAR RECORD HIGH
TEMPERATURES ON SATURDAY. THE RIDGE WILL SHIFT EASTWARD BY SUNDAY AS
A LOW PRESSURE TROUGH ENTERS THE WEST COAST. THIS WILL BRING A DROP
IN DAYTIME TEMPERATURES FOR SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. CURRENT FORECAST
APPEARED TO HANDLE THESE TRENDS WELL...SO NO UPDATES NECESSARY THIS
EVENING. PLEASE REFER TO THE ADDITIONAL SECTIONS FOR MORE DETAILS.

&&

.AVIATION...VALID THRU 25/06Z.
VFR CONDITIONS AT ALL TERMINALS. CLEAR SKIES AND DIURNALLY TERRAIN
DRIVEN SURFACE WINDS LESS THAN 10 KTS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS SOUTHEAST
ARIZONA. AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR TAF AMENDMENTS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT WILL RESULT
IN DRY CONDITIONS AND NEAR RECORD TEMPERATURES THROUGH SATURDAY.
DIURNALLY TERRAIN DRIVEN 20-FOOT WINDS WILL BE LESS THAN 15 MPH
THROUGH SATURDAY. BREEZY WEST-NORTHWEST WINDS WINDS ARE LIKELY
SUNDAY AND MONDAY AS A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE PASSES NORTH OF THE
AREA. DURING THAT TIME PERIOD...A SHOWER CANNOT BE RULED OUT OVER
THE HIGHER PEAKS NEAR THE NEW MEXICO BORDER. SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES
CAN BE EXPECTED BEHIND THE TROUGH THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...THE RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO SHIFT EAST ON
SATURDAY. HOWEVER...SOUTHWEST FLOW/WAA WILL TAKE PLACE ACROSS THE
REGION AS A TROUGH BEGINS TO DIG SOUTH ALONG THE WEST COAST. EXPECT
AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES TO REMAIN NEARLY UNCHANGED ON SATURDAY. THIS
WILL RESULT IN THE CONTINUATION OF NEAR RECORD OR RECORD HIGH
TEMPERATURES SATURDAY...WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES TOPPING OUT 7-12
DEGREES F ABOVE NORMAL. FOR TUCSON...THE FORECAST HIGH OF 94 DEGREES
F ON SATURDAY WOULD TIE THE OLD RECORD SET IN 1990 AND 1959. EXPECT
A FEW OTHER STATIONS ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA TO TIE/BREAK PREVIOUS
RECORDS DURING THIS UNSEASONABLY WARM PERIOD AS WELL.

A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL THEN PUSH EAST ACROSS THE WESTERN
UNITED STATES LATE SATURDAY INTO EARLY MONDAY...RESULTING IN A
COUPLE OF DEGREES OF COOLING SUNDAY AND MORE SIGNIFICANT COOLING ON
MONDAY. WHILE THE MAIN MOISTURE/DYNAMIC FIELDS STAY WELL NORTH OF
THE STATE...A WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE CURRENTLY LOCATED OVER THE
EASTERN PACIFIC NEAR 120W/25N WILL GET PULLED NORTHWARD ACROSS THE
STATE WITH THE TROUGH PASSAGE. THIS FEATURE...IN COMBINATION WITH
SOME MOISTURE POOLING ALONG THE TROUGH AXIS MAY BE JUST ENOUGH TO
GENERATE A SHOWER OR TWO ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN ALONG NEW MEXICO
BORDER. IN COORDINATION WITH THE OTHER ARIZONA OFFICES...HAVE PUT IN
SLIGHT CHANCE (10%) POPS LATE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY MONDAY IN
THE WHITE MOUNTAINS...WITH LESSER VALUES IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN SOUTH
OF THE WHITE`S ALONG THE NEW MEXICO BORDER.

DRY CONDITIONS AND NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE THEN EXPECTED BEHIND
THE TROUGH PASSAGE TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY OF NEXT WEEK. THE MODELS
THEN INDICATE ANOTHER STRONG RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING OVER
THE EASTERN PACIFIC/SOUTHWEST US LATE NEXT WEEK FOR A RETURN TO
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES.

&&

.TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

$$

VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...YOUTUBE...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/TUCSON







000
FXUS65 KPSR 250301
AFDPSR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PHOENIX AZ
800 PM MST FRI OCT 24 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE AS STRONG HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS NORTHEASTWARD...WITH NEAR-RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES POSSIBLE
THROUGH SATURDAY ACROSS SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA. A COOLING TREND IS
THEN EXPECTED FROM SUNDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES
INLAND INTO THE GREAT BASIN...WITH TEMPERATURES FALLING BACK TO NEAR
SEASONAL NORMALS. A RETURN TO ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES IS EXPECTED
BY WEDNESDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BECOMES REESTABLISHED ACROSS THE
WESTERN STATES.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
STRONG HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT PERSISTED ACROSS THE DESERT SOUTHWEST
EARLY THIS EVENING...AND H5 HEIGHTS WERE QUITE HIGH FOR THIS TIME OF
YEAR...IN EXCESS OF 590DM OVER SRN AZ PER THE 00Z PLOT DATA. IR
IMAGERY AT 8 PM SHOWED CLEAR SKIES ACROSS THE REGION. WITH AMPLE
SUNSHINE AND VERY WARM AIR ALOFT/HIGH HEIGHTS...HIGH TEMPS TODAY
CLIMBED ANOTHER FEW DEGREES AND INTO RECORD TERRITORY OVER THE
WARMER LOWER DESERTS. PHOENIX TIED A RECORD HIGH OF 96 DEGREES
TODAY...A MARK THAT WAS 9 DEGREES ABOVE SEASONAL NORMALS. THE RIDGE
IS FORECAST TO WEAKEN SLIGHTLY OVERNIGHT TONIGHT AS A WEAK LOW OFF
NRN BAJA STARTS TO MOVE INLAND INTO FAR SERN CA BY EARLY SATURDAY.
THE LOW WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS AZ AS A WEAK OPEN WAVE ON SATURDAY...
BRINGING AN INCREASE IN MID CLOUD TO THE SRN DESERTS AND LEADING TO
PARTLY OR EVEN MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES IN THE PHOENIX AREA BY SATURDAY
AFTERNOON. LITTLE IF ANY PRECIP IS EXPECTED SATURDAY PARTLY DUE TO
EXPECTED VERY DRY AIR THAT WILL PERSIST IN THE LOWER ATMOSPHERE. FOR
THE REST OF TONIGHT EXPECT CLEAR OR MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES...VERY LIGHT
WINDS AND MILD OVERNIGHT TEMPS. NO UPDATES NEEDED TO THE FORECAST.

.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
UNSEASONABLY WARM TEMPERATURES CONTINUE TO AFFECT THE REGION THIS
AFTERNOON AS A STRONG 590DM UPPER RIDGE REMAINS POSITIONED OVER THE
AZ/NM BORDER. THE COMBINATION OF ANOMALOUSLY HIGH HEIGHTS...850MB
TEMPS AROUND 22-23C...AND SUNNY SKIES HAVE ALLOWED EARLY AFTERNOON
TEMPERATURES TO RISE INTO THE LOWER 90S AS OF 20Z. WITH A FEW MORE
HOURS OF WARMING...NEAR RECORD TEMPS LOOK LIKE A LOCK BEFORE THE DAY
IS OVER IN THE PHOENIX AREA. TODAY`S RECORD IS IN JEOPARDY IN
PHOENIX WHEREAS YUMA`S RECORD OF 105 WILL REMAIN UNTOUCHED.

NOT LOOKING AT ANY SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE FORECAST ON THIS
SHIFT. THE RIDGE WILL SLIDE EAST TONIGHT AS A WEAK LOW JUST WEST OF
BAJA CALIFORNIA MOVES INTO SOUTHWEST ARIZONA SATURDAY AFTERNOON. THE
MOST RECENT RUNS OF THE GFS...EURO...AND ESPECIALLY THE NAM ARE
INDICATING QUITE A BIT OF MID LEVEL MOISTURE AND BROAD ISENTROPIC
ASCENT ON THE 310-320K SURFACES ALONG WITH MODEST MOISTURE
CONVERGENCE BETWEEN 12Z SAT - 00Z SUN. POINT FORECAST SOUNDINGS FOR
TOMORROW STILL REVEAL A CONSIDERABLE AMOUNT OF DRY AIR IN THE LOWER
LEVELS WITH NEAR SATURATION BETWEEN 700-500MB TOMORROW
AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY ACROSS SW AZ. WHILE IT DOESN`T LOOK
IMPRESSIVE IN THE LEAST ON SATELLITE AT THE MOMENT...CLOUD COVER
SHOULD FILL IN AS THE LOW MOVES THROUGH THE AREA. I BUMPED UP CLOUD
COVER AND ALSO NUDGED POPS CLOSER TO 10 PERCENT ESPECIALLY ACROSS
WESTERN MARICOPA COUNTY TOMORROW AFTERNOON/EVENING.

THE UPPER LOW WILL DRIFT THROUGH THE REGION SATURDAY NIGHT AS
ANOTHER LOW MOVES THROUGH CALIFORNIA INTO UTAH ON SUNDAY. THIS
SECONDARY TROUGH COULD ALSO KICK OFF A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS ACROSS
NORTHERN ARIZONA BUT OUR PRECIP CHANCES ACROSS THE DESERTS LOOK SLIM
TO NIL. WILL MAINTAIN LOWER SINGLE DIGIT POPS EAST OF PHOENIX FOR
SUNDAY EVENING...THEN BEGIN A DRYING TREND SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY
AS A FLAT RIDGE BECOMES ESTABLISHED ACROSS THE AREA.

ON THE SUBJECT OF TEMPERATURES...SHOULD SEE SLIGHTLY COOLER
TEMPERATURES ON SATURDAY COMPARED TO TODAY GIVEN LOWER HEIGHTS AND
MORE CLOUD COVER. HARD TO CALL IT A COOL-DOWN BUT DESERT TEMPS
SHOULD BE ABOUT 2-3 DEGREES COOLER. STILL IN THE LOW/MID 90S.
DISCERNIBLE COOLING TREND WILL BEGIN SUNDAY AS THE AFOREMENTIONED
TROUGH MOVES EASTWARD INTO THE ROCKIES. COOLEST DAY WILL LIKELY BE
MONDAY AS A SOUTHERN STREAM PACIFIC TROUGH AMPLIFIES ACROSS THE
REGION. HOWEVER...TEMPERATURES WILL ONLY DROP TO NEAR OR EVEN
SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL.

WARMING TREND IS LIKELY BEGINNING TUESDAY-WEDNESDAY. DISTINCT
DIFFERENCE IN THE OPERATIONAL GFS/ECMWF IS APPARENT BY MIDWEEK
ACROSS THE WESTERN CONUS. LATEST ECMWF IS FAVORED GIVEN ITS STRONG
PERFORMANCE OVER THE PAST TWO WEEKS AND RELATIVELY LOW ENSEMBLE
SPREAD. CONSEQUENTLY...FORECAST TEMPERATURES HAVE BEEN INCREASED
OWING TO ANOTHER ANOMALOUSLY STRONG RIDGE ACROSS THE WESTERN STATES.
POPS REMAIN NIL THROUGH ALL OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...
SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA INCLUDING KPHX...KIWA AND KSDL...SOUTHEAST
CALIFORNIA AND SOUTHWEST ARIZONA INCLUDING KIPL AND KBLH...

MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES WILL PREVAIL AT ALL TAF SITES THROUGH SATURDAY
MORNING. THERE WILL BE AN INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER STARTING IN THE
EARLY TO MID MORNING SATURDAY AS MOISTURE IS ADVECTED THROUGH
ARIZONA...COULD EVEN BE A FEW SPRINKLES IN SOME SPOTS BUT NOT ENOUGH
COVERAGE/CONFIDENCE TO INCLUDE IN ANY TAFS. IMPACTS WOULD BE MINIMAL
AS CIGS SHOULD REMAIN WELL ABOVE CRITICAL THRESHOLDS. MOST BASES
AFFECTING THE CENTRAL AZ DESERTS SATURDAY WILL BE AOA 8K FEET. AS
FOR WINDS...WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND WILL FAVOR THE TYPICAL DIURNAL
DIRECTIONS THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING.

AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDED TAFS.

&&

.CLIMATE...
RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES

DATE         PHOENIX
----         -------
FRI OCT 24   96 IN 2007
SAT OCT 25   96 IN 1990

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...
RIDGING WILL RETURN TO THE AREA NEXT WEEK WITH GRADUALLY INCREASING
TEMPERATURES THROUGHOUT THE WEEK. NO MAJOR WIND EVENTS ARE EXPECTED
DURING THIS PERIOD AS ANY TROUGHS WILL BE DISPLACED WELL NORTH OF
THE REGION. AFTERNOON HUMIDITIES WILL FALL INTO THE UPPER TEENS TO
LOWER 20 PERCENT RANGE EACH DAY WITH GOOD OVERNIGHT RECOVERIES
EXPECTED.

&&

.PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

AZ...NONE.

CA...NONE.

&&

$$

VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/PHOENIX

DISCUSSION...CB
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...LEINS/HIRSCH
CLIMATE...MO/HIRSCH
AVIATION...CB/LEINS
FIRE WEATHER...LEINS









000
FXUS65 KFGZ 242139
AFDFGZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ
240 PM MST FRI OCT 24 2014

.SYNOPSIS...HIGH PRESSURE WILL SHIFT TO THE EAST AND ALLOW FOR
COOLER TEMPERATURES AND BREEZY CONDITIONS OVER THE NORTHLAND THIS
WEEKEND. THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS LATE SATURDAY AND
EARLY SUNDAY AS MOISTURE BRIEFLY MOVES INTO THE AREA FROM THE SOUTH.
OTHERWISE...FAIR WEATHER IS EXPECTED TO RETURN ON MONDAY AND
CONTINUE THROUGH NEXT WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...CLEAR SKIES AND WARM TEMPERATURES ACROSS NORTHERN
ARIZONA THIS AFTERNOON...WITH AT LEAST ONE LOCATION EXCEEDING
RECORD HIGHS FOR THE DATE. EXPECT ANOTHER CLEAR NIGHT WITH CALM
WINDS BEFORE A CHANGE IN THE WEATHER ON SATURDAY AND SUNDAY.

THIS WEEKEND...A BROAD TROUGH WILL DEVELOP OVER AND MOVE THROUGH THE
GREAT BASIN THIS WEEKEND. WINDS WILL INCREASE OVER NORTHERN ARIZONA
IN RESPONSE TO THE TROUGHING...WITH SOUTHWEST WINDS IN THE 15 TO 25
MPH RANGE AND GUSTS FROM 25 TO 35 MPH...WITH THE FASTEST WINDS ON
SUNDAY. PROGS ARE SHOWING SOME LOW LEVEL MOISTURE MOVING NORTHWARD
LATE SATURDAY AND EARLY SUNDAY AHEAD OF A WEAK DISTURBANCE CURRENTLY
AROUND 25N 120W. THIS FEATURE WILL WEAKEN...AND MOVE THROUGH ARIZONA
WITHIN THE STRENGTHENING SW FLOW. WITH THIS MOISTURE AND ATTENDANT
WEAK ASCENT...WE EXPECT AN INCREASE IN CLOUDS AND A FEW LIGHT
SHOWERS...AND HAVE ADDED A SLIGHT POPS GENERALLY OVER THE HIGHER
TERRAIN LATE SATURDAY AND EARLY SUNDAY. COOLER AIR ASSOCIATED WITH
THE PASSING TROUGH WILL CAUSE MAX TEMPERATURES TO FALL TO
SEASONAL NORMALS LEVELS SUNDAY AND MONDAY.

TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.  MODELS ARE CONSISTENT WITH INDICATING A DRY
WEATHER PATTERN...WITH TEMPERATURES RISING ABOVE SEASONAL NORMALS
ONCE AGAIN AS A STRONG RIDGE DEVELOPS OVER THE WESTERN STATES LATE
IN THE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 00Z PACKAGE...PRIMARILY VFR CONDITIONS WILL
CONTINUE OVER THE NEXT 24 HRS. PRESCRIBED BURN ACTIVITY MAY CAUSE
LOCAL AREAS OF REDUCED VIS IN SMOKE NEAR KFLG AND KGCN OVERNIGHT
TONIGHT. LIGHT WINDS BECOMING SOUTHWEST 10-15 KTS GUSTING 20-25 KTS
AFT 18Z SATURDAY. AN ISOLATED -SHRA WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER THE HIGH
TERRAIN BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON. AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR
AMENDMENTS.

&&

.FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC.........BAK
AVIATION.......MCS

FOR NORTHERN ARIZONA WEATHER INFORMATION VISIT
WEATHER.GOV/FLAGSTAFF








000
FXUS65 KTWC 242132
AFDTWC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ
230 PM MST FRI OCT 24 2014

.SYNOPSIS...STRONG HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WILL BRING NEAR RECORD TO
RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES TODAY AND SATURDAY. A COOLING TREND WILL
THEN OCCUR BY MONDAY AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES NORTH OF THE
AREA. THERE MAY BE A STRAY SHOWER OR TWO IN THE WHITE MOUNTAINS AND
OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN ALONG THE NEW MEXICO BORDER WITH THE PASSAGE
OF THIS SYSTEM LATE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY MONDAY. DRY CONDITIONS
ARE EXPECTED AGAIN NEXT WEEK. AFTERNOON HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE
NEAR SEASONAL AVERAGES TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...WARMING TO ABOVE
NORMAL BY THE END OF THE WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT BUILDS BACK
ACROSS THE WESTERN STATES.

&&

.DISCUSSION...SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES CLEAR SKIES ACROSS
SOUTHEAST ARIZONA THIS AFTERNOON...WITH JUST A FEW CU NOTED SOUTH OF
THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER IN NORTHERN SONORA. THE RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE CONTINUES TO SHIFT SLOWLY EAST...WITH THE RIDGE AXIS OVER
CENTRAL NEW MEXICO. 21Z OBSERVATIONS ACROSS SOUTHERN ARIZONA SHOW
VALLEY TEMPERATURES IN THE LOWER 80S TO LOWER 90S. THE RIDGE WILL
CONTINUE TO SHIFT EAST ON SATURDAY. HOWEVER...SOUTHWEST FLOW/WAA
WILL TAKE PLACE ACROSS THE REGION AS A TROUGH BEGINS TO DIG SOUTH
ALONG THE WEST COAST. EXPECT AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES TO REMAIN NEARLY
UNCHANGED ON SATURDAY. THIS WILL RESULT IN THE CONTINUATION OF NEAR
RECORD OR RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES SATURDAY...WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES
TOPPING OUT 7-12 DEGREES F ABOVE NORMAL. FOR TUCSON...THE FORECAST
HIGH OF 94 DEGREES F ON SATURDAY WOULD TIE THE OLD RECORD SET IN
1990 AND 1959. EXPECT A FEW OTHER STATIONS ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA
TO TIE/BREAK PREVIOUS RECORDS DURING THIS UNSEASONABLY WARM PERIOD
AS WELL.

A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL THEN PUSH EAST ACROSS THE WESTERN
UNITED STATES LATE SATURDAY INTO EARLY MONDAY...RESULTING IN A
COUPLE OF DEGREES OF COOLING SUNDAY AND MORE SIGNIFICANT COOLING ON
MONDAY. WHILE THE MAIN MOISTURE/DYNAMIC FIELDS STAY WELL NORTH OF
THE STATE...A WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE CURRENTLY LOCATED OVER THE
EASTERN PACIFIC NEAR 120W/25N WILL GET PULLED NORTHWARD ACROSS THE
STATE WITH THE TROUGH PASSAGE. THIS FEATURE...IN COMBINATION WITH
SOME MOISTURE POOLING ALONG THE TROUGH AXIS MAY BE JUST ENOUGH TO
GENERATE A SHOWER OR TWO ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN ALONG NEW MEXICO
BORDER. IN COORDINATION WITH THE OTHER ARIZONA OFFICES...HAVE PUT IN
SLIGHT CHANCE (10%) POPS LATE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY MONDAY IN
THE WHITE MOUNTAINS...WITH LESSER VALUES IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN SOUTH
OF THE WHITE`S ALONG THE NEW MEXICO BORDER.

DRY CONDITIONS AND NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE THEN EXPECTED BEHIND
THE TROUGH PASSAGE TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY OF NEXT WEEK. THE MODELS
THEN INDICATE ANOTHER STRONG RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING OVER
THE EASTERN PACIFIC/SOUTHWEST US LATE NEXT WEEK FOR A RETURN TO
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES.

&&

.AVIATION...VALID THRU 25/23Z.
VFR CONDITIONS AT ALL TERMINALS. CLEAR SKIES AND DIURNALLY TERRAIN
DRIVEN SURFACE WINDS LESS THAN 10 KTS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS SOUTHEAST
ARIZONA. AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR TAF AMENDMENTS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT WILL RESULT
IN DRY CONDITIONS AND NEAR RECORD TEMPERATURES THROUGH SATURDAY.
DIURNALLY TERRAIN DRIVEN 20-FOOT WINDS WILL BE LESS THAN 15 MPH
THROUGH SATURDAY. BREEZY WEST-NORTHWEST WINDS WINDS ARE LIKELY
SUNDAY AND MONDAY AS A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE PASSES NORTH OF THE
AREA. DURING THAT TIME PERIOD...A SHOWER CANNOT BE RULED OUT OVER
THE HIGHER PEAKS NEAR THE NEW MEXICO BORDER. SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES
CAN BE EXPECTED BEHIND THE TROUGH THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&


.TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

$$

VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...YOUTUBE...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/TUCSON






000
FXUS65 KPSR 242033
AFDPSR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PHOENIX AZ
133 PM MST FRI OCT 24 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE AS STRONG HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS NORTHEASTWARD...WITH NEAR-RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES POSSIBLE
THROUGH SATURDAY ACROSS SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA. A COOLING TREND IS
THEN EXPECTED FROM SUNDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES
INLAND INTO THE GREAT BASIN...WITH TEMPERATURES FALLING BACK TO NEAR
SEASONAL NORMALS. A RETURN TO ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES IS EXPECTED
BY WEDNESDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BECOMES REESTABLISHED ACROSS THE
WESTERN STATES.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
UNSEASONABLY WARM TEMPERATURES CONTINUE TO AFFECT THE REGION THIS
AFTERNOON AS A STRONG 590DM UPPER RIDGE REMAINS POSITIONED OVER THE
AZ/NM BORDER. THE COMBINATION OF ANOMALOUSLY HIGH HEIGHTS...850MB
TEMPS AROUND 22-23C...AND SUNNY SKIES HAVE ALLOWED EARLY AFTERNOON
TEMPERATURES TO RISE INTO THE LOWER 90S AS OF 20Z. WITH A FEW MORE
HOURS OF WARMING...NEAR RECORD TEMPS LOOK LIKE A LOCK BEFORE THE DAY
IS OVER IN THE PHOENIX AREA. TODAY`S RECORD IS IN JEOPARDY IN
PHOENIX WHEREAS YUMA`S RECORD OF 105 WILL REMAIN UNTOUCHED.

NOT LOOKING AT ANY SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE FORECAST ON THIS
SHIFT. THE RIDGE WILL SLIDE EAST TONIGHT AS A WEAK LOW JUST WEST OF
BAJA CALIFORNIA MOVES INTO SOUTHWEST ARIZONA SATURDAY AFTERNOON. THE
MOST RECENT RUNS OF THE GFS...EURO...AND ESPECIALLY THE NAM ARE
INDICATING QUITE A BIT OF MID LEVEL MOISTURE AND BROAD ISENTROPIC
ASCENT ON THE 310-320K SURFACES ALONG WITH MODEST MOISTURE
CONVERGENCE BETWEEN 12Z SAT - 00Z SUN. POINT FORECAST SOUNDINGS FOR
TOMORROW STILL REVEAL A CONSIDERABLE AMOUNT OF DRY AIR IN THE LOWER
LEVELS WITH NEAR SATURATION BETWEEN 700-500MB TOMORROW
AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY ACROSS SW AZ. WHILE IT DOESN`T LOOK
IMPRESSIVE IN THE LEAST ON SATELLITE AT THE MOMENT...CLOUD COVER
SHOULD FILL IN AS THE LOW MOVES THROUGH THE AREA. I BUMPED UP CLOUD
COVER AND ALSO NUDGED POPS CLOSER TO 10 PERCENT ESPECIALLY ACROSS
WESTERN MARICOPA COUNTY TOMORROW AFTERNOON/EVENING.

THE UPPER LOW WILL DRIFT THROUGH THE REGION SATURDAY NIGHT AS
ANOTHER LOW MOVES THROUGH CALIFORNIA INTO UTAH ON SUNDAY. THIS
SECONDARY TROUGH COULD ALSO KICK OFF A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS ACROSS
NORTHERN ARIZONA BUT OUR PRECIP CHANCES ACROSS THE DESERTS LOOK SLIM
TO NIL. WILL MAINTAIN LOWER SINGLE DIGIT POPS EAST OF PHOENIX FOR
SUNDAY EVENING...THEN BEGIN A DRYING TREND SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY
AS A FLAT RIDGE BECOMES ESTABLISHED ACROSS THE AREA.

ON THE SUBJECT OF TEMPERATURES...SHOULD SEE SLIGHTLY COOLER
TEMPERATURES ON SATURDAY COMPARED TO TODAY GIVEN LOWER HEIGHTS AND
MORE CLOUD COVER. HARD TO CALL IT A COOL-DOWN BUT DESERT TEMPS
SHOULD BE ABOUT 2-3 DEGREES COOLER. STILL IN THE LOW/MID 90S.
DISCERNIBLE COOLING TREND WILL BEGIN SUNDAY AS THE AFOREMENTIONED
TROUGH MOVES EASTWARD INTO THE ROCKIES. COOLEST DAY WILL LIKELY BE
MONDAY AS A SOUTHERN STREAM PACIFIC TROUGH AMPLIFIES ACROSS THE
REGION. HOWEVER...TEMPERATURES WILL ONLY DROP TO NEAR OR EVEN
SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL.

WARMING TREND IS LIKELY BEGINNING TUESDAY-WEDNESDAY. DISTINCT
DIFFERENCE IN THE OPERATIONAL GFS/ECMWF IS APPARENT BY MIDWEEK
ACROSS THE WESTERN CONUS. LATEST ECMWF IS FAVORED GIVEN ITS STRONG
PERFORMANCE OVER THE PAST TWO WEEKS AND RELATIVELY LOW ENSEMBLE
SPREAD. CONSEQUENTLY...FORECAST TEMPERATURES HAVE BEEN INCREASED
OWING TO ANOTHER ANOMALOUSLY STRONG RIDGE ACROSS THE WESTERN STATES.
POPS REMAIN NIL THROUGH ALL OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...
SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA INCLUDING KPHX...KIWA AND KSDL...SOUTHEAST
CALIFORNIA AND SOUTHWEST ARIZONA INCLUDING KIPL AND KBLH...

MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES WILL PREVAIL AT ALL TAF SITES THROUGH SATURDAY
MORNING. THERE WILL BE AN INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER LATE IN THE TAF
PERIOD AS MOISTURE IS ADVECTED THROUGH ARIZONA...COULD EVEN BE A FEW
SPRINKLES IN SOME SPOTS BUT NOT ENOUGH COVERAGE/CONFIDENCE TO
INCLUDE IN ANY TAFS. IMPACTS WOULD BE MINIMAL AS CIGS SHOULD REMAIN
WELL ABOVE CRITICAL THRESHOLDS. AS FOR WINDS...WINDS WILL BE LIGHT
AND WILL FAVOR THE TYPICAL DIURNAL DIRECTIONS.

AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDED TAFS.

&&

.CLIMATE...
RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES

DATE         PHOENIX
----         -------
FRI OCT 24   96 IN 2007
SAT OCT 25   96 IN 1990

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...
RIDGING WILL RETURN TO THE AREA NEXT WEEK WITH GRADUALLY INCREASING
TEMPERATURES THROUGHOUT THE WEEK. NO MAJOR WIND EVENTS ARE EXPECTED
DURING THIS PERIOD AS ANY TROUGHS WILL BE DISPLACED WELL NORTH OF
THE REGION. AFTERNOON HUMIDITIES WILL FALL INTO THE UPPER TEENS TO
LOWER 20 PERCENT RANGE EACH DAY WITH GOOD OVERNIGHT RECOVERIES
EXPECTED.

&&

.PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

AZ...NONE.

CA...NONE.

&&

$$

VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/PHOENIX

DISCUSSION...LEINS/HIRSCH
CLIMATE...MO/HIRSCH
AVIATION...LEINS
FIRE WEATHER...LEINS






000
FXUS65 KPSR 241643
AFDPSR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PHOENIX AZ
942 AM MST FRI OCT 24 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE AS STRONG HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS NORTHEASTWARD...WITH NEAR-RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES POSSIBLE
TODAY AND SATURDAY ACROSS SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA. A COOLING TREND IS
THEN EXPECTED FROM SUNDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES
INLAND INTO THE GREAT BASIN...WITH TEMPERATURES FALLING BACK TO NEAR
SEASONAL NORMALS. A RETURN TO ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES IS EXPECTED
BY WEDNESDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BECOMES REESTABLISHED ACROSS THE
WESTERN STATES.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
MID MORNING WATER VAPOR IMAGERY CONTINUES TO REVEAL HIGH PRESSURE
CENTERED OVER THE AZ/NM BORDER WITH APPROX 590DM H5 HEIGHTS ACROSS
THE AREA PER 12Z SOUNDINGS. NOT SURPRISINGLY...WARM TEMPERATURES ARE
ON THE WAY AND ARE ALREADY IN THE LOWER 80S AS OF 1630Z.

NOT GOING TO BE MAKING ANY SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE FORECAST AS
THINGS APPEAR TO BE RIGHT ON TRACK. A CONSENSUS BLEND OF BIAS
CORRECTED GUIDANCE POINTS SQUARELY AT 96 FOR A HIGH AT PHOENIX TODAY
WITH SLIGHTLY HIGHER VALUES AROUND YUMA/EL CENTRO. RECORDS ARE
CERTAINLY WITHIN REACH THIS AFTERNOON AT PHOENIX BUT YUMA`S RECORD
OF 105 WILL REMAIN INTACT.

&&

.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
SOUTHWESTERLY RETURN FLOW WILL DEVELOP SATURDAY BETWEEN THE RIDGE IN
THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND A PACIFIC TROUGH MOVING INTO THE GREAT
BASIN. MODELS ARE ALSO INDICATING AN INNOCUOUS UPPER LOW WILL BE
PULLED NORTHWARD INTO AZ. MAIN IMPACT FROM THIS SYSTEM WILL BE AN
INCREASE IN MID-LEVEL MOISTURE. GFS IVT IS STRONG ENOUGH TO SUGGEST
SOME POTENTIAL FOR SCATTERED CLOUDS AND SPRINKLES MAINLY LATE IN THE
DAY...THOUGH THE CHANCE FOR MEASURABLE RAIN REMAINS NEGLIGIBLE. NET
DECREASE IN HEIGHTS/THICKNESSES COMBINED WITH INCREASED CLOUD COVER
WILL RESULT IN COOLING THROUGH THE COLUMN...EXCEPT BELOW 900 MB
WHERE THE WELL-ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL PERSIST. LATEST
FORECAST OF 95 DEGREES IN PHOENIX REPRESENTS A SLIGHT DECREASE FROM
24 HOURS AGO...THOUGH IT IS CONCEIVABLE THAT TEMPERATURES WILL AGAIN
REACH THE RECORD OF 96 DEGREES FOR THE DAY.

DISCERNIBLE COOLING TREND WILL BEGIN SUNDAY AS THE AFOREMENTIONED
TROUGH MOVES EASTWARD INTO THE ROCKIES. COOLEST DAY WILL LIKELY BE
MONDAY AS A SOUTHERN STREAM PACIFIC TROUGH AMPLIFIES ACROSS THE
REGION. HOWEVER...TEMPERATURES WILL ONLY DROP TO NEAR OR EVEN
SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL.

WARMING TREND IS LIKELY BEGINNING TUESDAY-WEDNESDAY. DISTINCT
DIFFERENCE IN THE OPERATIONAL GFS/ECMWF IS APPARENT BY MIDWEEK
ACROSS THE WESTERN CONUS. LATEST ECMWF IS FAVORED GIVEN ITS STRONG
PERFORMANCE OVER THE PAST TWO WEEKS AND RELATIVELY LOW ENSEMBLE
SPREAD. CONSEQUENTLY...FORECAST TEMPERATURES HAVE BEEN INCREASED
OWING TO ANOTHER ANOMALOUSLY STRONG RIDGE ACROSS THE WESTERN STATES.
POPS REMAIN NIL THROUGH ALL OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...
SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA INCLUDING KPHX...KIWA AND KSDL...SOUTHEAST
CALIFORNIA AND SOUTHWEST ARIZONA INCLUDING KIPL AND KBLH...

MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES WILL PREVAIL AT ALL TAF SITES THROUGH SATURDAY
MORNING. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND WILL FAVOR THE TYPICAL DIURNAL
DIRECTIONS.

AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDED TAFS.

&&

.CLIMATE...

RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES

DATE         PHOENIX
----         -------
FRI OCT 24   96 IN 2007
SAT OCT 25   96 IN 1990

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...
COOLER TEMPERATURES ALONG WITH INCREASED DAYTIME WINDS ARE EXPECTED
SUNDAY INTO WEDNESDAY AS A SERIES OF UPPER-LEVEL DISTURBANCES MOVES
OVER THE GREAT BASIN. THE STRONGEST WINDS WILL TAKE PLACE SUNDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING ACROSS SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA...SOUTHWEST AND
SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA...WITH SUSTAINED WINDS UP TO 20 MPH...WITH
GUSTS UP TO 30 MPH POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY OVER RIDGES AND UPPER SLOPES.
LIGHTER WINDS WILL THEN PREVAIL MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY AS HIGH
PRESSURE ONCE AGAIN BUILDS SLOWLY OVER THE DESERT SOUTHWEST. MINIMUM
RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES WILL GENERALLY RANGE IN THE TEENS ACROSS
THE LOWER DESERTS EACH DAY...WITH HIGHER VALUES IN THE
MOUNTAINS...FOLLOWED BY GOOD OVERNIGHT RECOVERY AREA-WIDE.

&&

.PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

AZ...NONE.

CA...NONE.

&&

$$

VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/PHOENIX

DISCUSSION...LEINS/HIRSCH
CLIMATE...MO/HIRSCH
AVIATION...LEINS
FIRE WEATHER...PERCHA






000
FXUS65 KFGZ 241634
AFDFGZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ
934 AM MST FRI OCT 24 2014

.SYNOPSIS...HIGH PRESSURE MOVING ACROSS ARIZONA TODAY WILL BRING
ANOTHER VERY WARM DAY WITH LIGHT WINDS. EXPECT MAX TEMPS TO BE FROM
5 TO 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. EXPECT BREEZY SOUTHWEST WINDS THIS
WEEKEND AS A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE GREAT BASIN. MAX
TEMPERATURES COOL TO SEASONAL NORMALS FROM SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...ANOTHER BEAUTIFUL DAY IN STORE FOR NORTHERN ARIZONA.
BASED ON OUR SOUNDING THIS MORNING...THE RIDGE BUILDING OVER THE
SOUTHERN ROCKIES HAS INCREASED THE TEMPS IN THE LOWER AND MIDDLE
ATMOSPHERE ANOTHER DEGREE OR TWO...WHICH WILL TRANSLATE INTO
WARM TEMPERATURES TODAY OVER NORTHERN ARIZONA WITH MAX TEMPS A
COUPLE DEGREES HIGHER THAN YESTERDAY. WE SHOULD PUSH CLOSE TO RECORD
HIGHS IN A FEW LOCATIONS. BREEZY AND COOLER WEATHER EXPECTED THIS
WEEKEND AS A TROUGH PASSES THROUGH THE GREAT BASIN. CURRENT FORECAST
IS IN GOOD SHAPE...WITH NO UPDATES PLANNED.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION /400 AM MST/...LOOK FOR FAIR WEATHER WITH LIGHT
WINDS AGAIN TODAY. MAX TEMPS WILL AGAIN BE FROM 8 TO 13 DEGREES
ABOVE NORMAL WHICH IS UNSEASONABLY WARM. DAILY MAX TEMP RECORDS MAY
BE BROKEN AT PAGE...TUSAYAN...AND WINDOW ROCK.

H5 ( AT 18KFT MSL)  WIND STREAMLINES SHOW THE HIGH PRESSURE CENTER
OVER AZ THIS MORNING AND MOVING INTO NEW MEXICO THIS AFTERNOON. LOW
LEVEL WINDS (BELOW 10KFT MSL) BECOME LIGHT SOUTHERLY THIS AFTERNOON
ACROSS COCONINO AND YAVAPAI COUNTIES.

THIS WEEKEND...A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE GREAT BASIN.
NORTHERN ARIZONA CAN EXPECT SOUTHWEST WINDS IN THE 15 TO 25 MPH
RANGE WITH GUSTS FROM 25 TO 35 MPH. THE FASTEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED
ON SUNDAY AS THE FRONT NEARS THE AZ UT BORDER. PROGS ARE SHOWING
SOME LOW LEVEL MOISTURE MOVING NORTHWARD SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY
AND THUS EXPECT SOME UPSLOPE STRATUS ALONG THE MOGOLLON RIM FROM
WILLIAMS TO THE WHITE MTNS. THE SREF MODEL HINTS AT SOME LIGHT
UPSLOPE SHOWERS ACROSS THE EASTERN RIM AND WHITE MTNS AREAS SUNDAY
AFTERNOON AND WE HAVE ADDED A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR A FEW SHOWERS IN
THESE AREAS. ELSEWHERE NO MOISTURE SEEN BELOW H5 AND NO MODEL QPF SO
PRECIP CHANCES WERE REMOVED. THE SFC FRONTAL BOUNDARY DIPS INTO FAR
NRN AZ EARLY MONDAY. COOLER AIR BEHIND THIS FRONT WILL CAUSE MAX
TEMPERATURES TO FALL TO SEASONAL NORMALS LEVELS MONDAY.

MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. PROGS SHOW A DRY WEATHER PATTERN WITH
NORTHWESTERLY THEN LIGHT WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT. EXPECT MAX AND MIN
TEMPS NEAR SEASONAL NORMALS.
&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 18Z PACKAGE...AREAS OF SMOKE FROM PRESCRIBED
BURNS WILL REDUCE VIS IN THE VICINITY OF KFLG AND KGCN THIS
MORNING...THOUGH CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE BETWEEN 18-19Z.
OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TODAY WITH LIGHT WINDS OF 10 KTS
OR LESS. AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDMENTS.
&&

.FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC.........BAK/DL
AVIATION.......MCS/RR

FOR NORTHERN ARIZONA WEATHER INFORMATION VISIT
WEATHER.GOV/FLAGSTAFF







000
FXUS65 KTWC 241513
AFDTWC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ
813 AM MST FRI OCT 24 2014

.SYNOPSIS...STRONG HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WILL BRING NEAR RECORD TO
RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES AND DRY CONDITIONS TODAY AND SATURDAY. A
COOLING TREND WILL THEN OCCUR BY MONDAY AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
MOVES NORTH OF THE AREA. A RETURN TO ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES IS
EXPECTED MID TO LATE NEXT WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT BUILDS BACK
ACROSS THE WESTERN STATES.

&&

.DISCUSSION...CLEAR SKIES ACROSS THE REGION THIS MORNING...WITH
TEMPERATURES AT 15Z IN THE MID 50S TO UPPER 60S IN THE VALLEY
LOCATIONS ACROSS SOUTHEAST ARIZONA. EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO TOP OUT
THIS AFTERNOON 8-12 DEGS F ABOVE NORMAL...OR NEAR RECORD LEVELS. THE
KTUS 12Z SOUNDING INDICATES A MAX TEMPERATURE OF 94 DEGS F TODAY...
WHICH MATCHES UP WITH ONGOING FORECAST. CURRENT FORECAST PACKAGE
LOOKS TO BE IN GOOD SHAPE...NO UPDATES.

&&

.AVIATION...VALID THRU 25/12Z.
VFR CONDITIONS AT ALL TERMINALS. MAINLY CLEAR SKIES AND DIURNALLY
TERRAIN DRIVEN SURFACE WINDS LESS THAN 10 KTS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS SE
AZ THROUGH THE PERIOD. AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR TAF
AMENDMENTS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WILL RESULT IN DRY CONDITIONS
AND A WARMING TREND THROUGH SATURDAY. DIURNALLY TERRAIN DRIVEN
20-FOOT WINDS WILL BE LESS THAN 15 MPH THROUGH SATURDAY. BREEZY
WEST-NORTHWEST WINDS WINDS ARE LIKELY SUNDAY AND MONDAY AS A TROUGH
OF LOW PRESSURE PASSES TO OUR NORTH. SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES AND
SLIGHTLY DRIER CONDITIONS WILL THEN SET IN AS THE TROUGH EXITS THE
REGION.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...RECORD OR NEAR RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE
THE MAIN STORY TODAY AND SATURDAY. STRONG HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE
AREA TODAY WILL MOVE EAST ON SATURDAY AS UPPER LEVEL TROF PUSHES
INTO THE WEST COAST. THIS TROF WILL MOVE ACROSS THE STATE SUNDAY AND
MONDAY BRINGING A SLIGHT UPTICK IN WIND SPEEDS AND MUCH COOLER HIGH
TEMPERATURES...ESPECIALLY ON MONDAY. SEASONAL HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR
THE REMAINDER OF NEXT WEEK.

&&


.TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

$$

VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...YOUTUBE...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/TUCSON






000
FXUS65 KFGZ 241112
AFDFGZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ
400 AM MST FRI OCT 24 2014

UPDATE TODAYS MAX TEMP SECTION IN PARAGRAPH 1

.SYNOPSIS...HIGH PRESSURE MOVING ACROSS ARIZONA TODAY WILL BRING
ANOTHER VERY WARM DAY WITH LIGHT WINDS. EXPECT MAX TEMPS TO BE FROM
5 TO 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. EXPECT BREEZY SOUTHWEST WINDS THIS
WEEKEND AS A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE GREAT BASIN. MAX
TEMPERATURES COOL TO SEASONAL NORMALS FROM SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...LOOK FOR FAIR WEATHER WITH LIGHT WINDS AGAIN TODAY.
MAX TEMPS WILL AGAIN BE FROM 8 TO 13 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL WHICH IS
UNSEASONABLY WARM. DAILY MAX TEMP RECORDS MAY BE BROKEN AT
PAGE...TUSAYAN...AND WINDOW ROCK.

H5 ( AT 18KFT MSL)  WIND STREAMLINES SHOW THE HIGH PRESSURE CENTER
OVER AZ THIS MORNING AND MOVING INTO NEW MEXICO THIS AFTERNOON. LOW
LEVEL WINDS (BELOW 10KFT MSL) BECOME LIGHT SOUTHERLY THIS AFTERNOON
ACROSS COCONINO AND YAVAPAI COUNTIES.

THIS WEEKEND...A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE GREAT BASIN.
NORTHERN ARIZONA CAN EXPECT SOUTHWEST WINDS IN THE 15 TO 25 MPH
RANGE WITH GUSTS FROM 25 TO 35 MPH. THE FASTEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED
ON SUNDAY AS THE FRONT NEARS THE AZ UT BORDER. PROGS ARE SHOWING
SOME LOW LEVEL MOISTURE MOVING NORTHWARD SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY
AND THUS EXPECT SOME UPSLOPE STRATUS ALONG THE MOGOLLON RIM FROM
WILLIAMS TO THE WHITE MTNS. THE SREF MODEL HINTS AT SOME LIGHT
UPSLOPE SHOWERS ACROSS THE EASTERN RIM AND WHITE MTNS AREAS SUNDAY
AFTERNOON AND WE HAVE ADDED A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR A FEW SHOWERS IN
THESE AREAS. ELSEWHERE NO MOISTURE SEEN BELOW H5 AND NO MODEL QPF SO
PRECIP CHANCES WERE REMOVED. THE SFC FRONTAL BOUNDARY DIPS INTO FAR
NRN AZ EARLY MONDAY. COOLER AIR BEHIND THIS FRONT WILL CAUSE MAX
TEMPERATURES TO FALL TO SEASONAL NORMALS LEVELS MONDAY.

MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. PROGS SHOW A DRY WEATHER PATTERN WITH
NORTHWESTERLY THEN LIGHT WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT. EXPECT MAX AND MIN
TEMPS NEAR SEASONAL NORMALS.
&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 12Z PACKAGE...EXPECT IFR VIS IN SMOKE FROM
PRESCRIBED BURNS AT KGCN...MVFR VIS IN SMOKE POSSIBLE AT KFLG. VIS
IMPROVING SHORTLY AFT SUNRISE WITH VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR
REMAINDER OF DAY AT AREA TERMINALS. AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED
FOR AMENDMENTS.
&&

.FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC.........DL
AVIATION.......RR

FOR NORTHERN ARIZONA WEATHER INFORMATION VISIT
WEATHER.GOV/FLAGSTAFF

















000
FXUS65 KFGZ 241003
AFDFGZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ
300 AM MST FRI OCT 24 2014

.SYNOPSIS...HIGH PRESSURE MOVING ACROSS ARIZONA TODAY WILL BRING
ANOTHER VERY WARM DAY WITH LIGHT WINDS. EXPECT MAX TEMPS TO BE FROM
5 TO 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. EXPECT BREEZY SOUTHWEST WINDS THIS
WEEKEND AS A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE GREAT BASIN. MAX
TEMPERATURES COOL TO SEASONAL NORMALS FROM SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...LOOK FOR FAIR WEATHER WITH LIGHT WINDS AGAIN TODAY.
MAX TEMPS WILL AGAIN BE FROM 5 TO 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL WHICH IS
UNSEASONABLY WARM.  H5 ( AT 18KFT MSL)  WIND STREAMLINES SHOW THE
HIGH PRESSURE CENTER OVER AZ THIS MORNING AND MOVING INTO NEW MEXICO
THIS AFTERNOON. LOW LEVEL WINDS (BELOW 10KFT MSL) BECOME LIGHT
SOUTHERLY THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS COCONINO AND YAVAPAI COUNTIES.

THIS WEEKEND...A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE GREAT BASIN.
NORTHERN ARIZONA CAN EXPECT SOUTHWEST WINDS IN THE 15 TO 25 MPH
RANGE WITH GUSTS FROM 25 TO 35 MPH. THE FASTEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED
ON SUNDAY AS THE FRONT NEARS THE AZ UT BORDER. PROGS ARE SHOWING
SOME LOW LEVEL MOISTURE MOVING NORTHWARD SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY
AND THUS EXPECT SOME UPSLOPE STRATUS ALONG THE MOGOLLON RIM FROM
WILLIAMS TO THE WHITE MTNS. THE SREF MODEL HINTS AT SOME LIGHT
UPSLOPE SHOWERS ACROSS THE EASTERN RIM AND WHITE MTNS AREAS SUNDAY
AFTERNOON AND WE HAVE ADDED A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR A FEW SHOWERS IN
THESE AREAS. ELSEWHERE NO MOISTURE SEEN BELOW H5 AND NO MODEL QPF SO
PRECIP CHANCES WERE REMOVED. THE SFC FRONTAL BOUNDARY DIPS INTO FAR
NRN AZ EARLY MONDAY. COOLER AIR BEHIND THIS FRONT WILL CAUSE MAX
TEMPERATURES TO FALL TO SEASONAL NORMALS LEVELS MONDAY.

MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. PROGS SHOW A DRY WEATHER PATTERN WITH
NORTHWESTERLY THEN LIGHT WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT. EXPECT MAX AND MIN
TEMPS NEAR SEASONAL NORMALS.
&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 12Z PACKAGE...EXPECT IFR VIS IN SMOKE FROM
PRESCRIBED BURNS AT KGCN...MVFR VIS IN SMOKE POSSIBLE AT KFLG. VIS
IMPROVING SHORTLY AFT SUNRISE WITH VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR
REMAINDER OF DAY AT AREA TERMINALS. AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED
FOR AMENDMENTS.
&&

.FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC.........DL
AVIATION.......RR

FOR NORTHERN ARIZONA WEATHER INFORMATION VISIT
WEATHER.GOV/FLAGSTAFF














000
FXUS65 KPSR 241003
AFDPSR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PHOENIX AZ
305 AM MST FRI OCT 24 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE AS STRONG HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS NORTHEASTWARD...WITH NEAR-RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES POSSIBLE TODAY
AND SATURDAY ACROSS SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA. A COOLING TREND IS THEN
EXPECTED FROM SUNDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES
INLAND INTO THE GREAT BASIN...WITH TEMPERATURES FALLING BACK TO NEAR
SEASONAL NORMALS. A RETURN TO ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES IS EXPECTED
BY WEDNESDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BECOMES REESTABLISHED ACROSS THE
WESTERN STATES.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
LATEST RAP ANALYSIS PLACES THE MID-UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONE NEAR
PHOENIX WITH HIGH CLOUDS DISPLACED WELL TO THE NORTH OF THE REGION.
A WARM SOUTHERLY FLOW IS EXPECTED TODAY ACROSS THE DESERT SOUTHWEST
AS THE RIDGE BUILDS NORTHWARD WHILE SLIDING EASTWARD. PHOENIX RECORD
HIGH OF 96 DEGREES IS IN JEOPARDY TODAY...THOUGH THE DAILY RECORD OF
105 DEGREES IN YUMA IS WELL OUT OF REACH.

SOUTHWESTERLY RETURN FLOW WILL DEVELOP SATURDAY BETWEEN THE RIDGE IN
THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND A PACIFIC TROUGH MOVING INTO THE GREAT
BASIN. MODELS ARE ALSO INDICATING AN INNOCUOUS UPPER LOW WILL BE
PULLED NORTHWARD INTO AZ. MAIN IMPACT FROM THIS SYSTEM WILL BE AN
INCREASE IN MID-LEVEL MOISTURE. GFS IVT IS STRONG ENOUGH TO SUGGEST
SOME POTENTIAL FOR SCATTERED CLOUDS AND SPRINKLES MAINLY LATE IN THE
DAY...THOUGH THE CHANCE FOR MEASURABLE RAIN REMAINS NEGLIGIBLE. NET
DECREASE IN HEIGHTS/THICKNESSES COMBINED WITH INCREASED CLOUD COVER
WILL RESULT IN COOLING THROUGH THE COLUMN...EXCEPT BELOW 900 MB
WHERE THE WELL-ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL PERSIST. LATEST
FORECAST OF 95 DEGREES IN PHOENIX REPRESENTS A SLIGHT DECREASE FROM
24 HOURS AGO...THOUGH IT IS CONCEIVABLE THAT TEMPERATURES WILL AGAIN
REACH THE RECORD OF 96 DEGREES FOR THE DAY.

DISCERNIBLE COOLING TREND WILL BEGIN SUNDAY AS THE AFOREMENTIONED
TROUGH MOVES EASTWARD INTO THE ROCKIES. COOLEST DAY WILL LIKELY BE
MONDAY AS A SOUTHERN STREAM PACIFIC TROUGH AMPLIFIES ACROSS THE
REGION. HOWEVER...TEMPERATURES WILL ONLY DROP TO NEAR OR EVEN
SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL.

WARMING TREND IS LIKELY BEGINNING TUESDAY-WEDNESDAY. DISTINCT
DIFFERENCE IN THE OPERATIONAL GFS/ECMWF IS APPARENT BY MIDWEEK
ACROSS THE WESTERN CONUS. LATEST ECMWF IS FAVORED GIVEN ITS STRONG
PERFORMANCE OVER THE PAST TWO WEEKS AND RELATIVELY LOW ENSEMBLE
SPREAD. CONSEQUENTLY...FORECAST TEMPERATURES HAVE BEEN INCREASED
OWING TO ANOTHER ANOMALOUSLY STRONG RIDGE ACROSS THE WESTERN STATES.
POPS REMAIN NIL THROUGH ALL OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...
SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA INCLUDING KPHX...KIWA AND KSDL...SOUTHEAST
CALIFORNIA AND SOUTHWEST ARIZONA INCLUDING KIPL AND KBLH...

HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT WILL KEEP SKIES MAINLY CLEAR
AT ALL THE TAF SITES THROUGH SATURDAY. WINDS TO REMAIN ON THE LIGHT
SIDE...MAINLY AOB 6 KTS...GENERALLY FOLLOWING THE USUAL DIURNAL
TRENDS.

AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDED TAFS.

&&

.CLIMATE...

RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES

DATE         PHOENIX
----         -------
FRI OCT 24   96 IN 2007
SAT OCT 25   96 IN 1990

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...
COOLER TEMPERATURES ALONG WITH INCREASED DAYTIME WINDS ARE EXPECTED
SUNDAY INTO WEDNESDAY AS A SERIES OF UPPER-LEVEL DISTURBANCES MOVES
OVER THE GREAT BASIN. THE STRONGEST WINDS WILL TAKE PLACE SUNDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING ACROSS SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA...SOUTHWEST AND
SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA...WITH SUSTAINED WINDS UP TO 20 MPH...WITH
GUSTS UP TO 30 MPH POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY OVER RIDGES AND UPPER SLOPES.
LIGHTER WINDS WILL THEN PREVAIL MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY AS HIGH
PRESSURE ONCE AGAIN BUILDS SLOWLY OVER THE DESERT SOUTHWEST. MINIMUM
RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES WILL GENERALLY RANGE IN THE TEENS ACROSS
THE LOWER DESERTS EACH DAY...WITH HIGHER VALUES IN THE
MOUNTAINS...FOLLOWED BY GOOD OVERNIGHT RECOVERY AREA-WIDE.

&&

.PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

AZ...NONE.

CA...NONE.

&&

$$

VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/PHOENIX

DISCUSSION...HIRSCH
CLIMATE...MO/HIRSCH
AVIATION...PERCHA
FIRE WEATHER...PERCHA






000
FXUS65 KFGZ 241003
AFDFGZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ
300 AM MST FRI OCT 24 2014

.SYNOPSIS...HIGH PRESSURE MOVING ACROSS ARIZONA TODAY WILL BRING
ANOTHER VERY WARM DAY WITH LIGHT WINDS. EXPECT MAX TEMPS TO BE FROM
5 TO 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. EXPECT BREEZY SOUTHWEST WINDS THIS
WEEKEND AS A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE GREAT BASIN. MAX
TEMPERATURES COOL TO SEASONAL NORMALS FROM SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...LOOK FOR FAIR WEATHER WITH LIGHT WINDS AGAIN TODAY.
MAX TEMPS WILL AGAIN BE FROM 5 TO 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL WHICH IS
UNSEASONABLY WARM.  H5 ( AT 18KFT MSL)  WIND STREAMLINES SHOW THE
HIGH PRESSURE CENTER OVER AZ THIS MORNING AND MOVING INTO NEW MEXICO
THIS AFTERNOON. LOW LEVEL WINDS (BELOW 10KFT MSL) BECOME LIGHT
SOUTHERLY THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS COCONINO AND YAVAPAI COUNTIES.

THIS WEEKEND...A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE GREAT BASIN.
NORTHERN ARIZONA CAN EXPECT SOUTHWEST WINDS IN THE 15 TO 25 MPH
RANGE WITH GUSTS FROM 25 TO 35 MPH. THE FASTEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED
ON SUNDAY AS THE FRONT NEARS THE AZ UT BORDER. PROGS ARE SHOWING
SOME LOW LEVEL MOISTURE MOVING NORTHWARD SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY
AND THUS EXPECT SOME UPSLOPE STRATUS ALONG THE MOGOLLON RIM FROM
WILLIAMS TO THE WHITE MTNS. THE SREF MODEL HINTS AT SOME LIGHT
UPSLOPE SHOWERS ACROSS THE EASTERN RIM AND WHITE MTNS AREAS SUNDAY
AFTERNOON AND WE HAVE ADDED A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR A FEW SHOWERS IN
THESE AREAS. ELSEWHERE NO MOISTURE SEEN BELOW H5 AND NO MODEL QPF SO
PRECIP CHANCES WERE REMOVED. THE SFC FRONTAL BOUNDARY DIPS INTO FAR
NRN AZ EARLY MONDAY. COOLER AIR BEHIND THIS FRONT WILL CAUSE MAX
TEMPERATURES TO FALL TO SEASONAL NORMALS LEVELS MONDAY.

MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. PROGS SHOW A DRY WEATHER PATTERN WITH
NORTHWESTERLY THEN LIGHT WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT. EXPECT MAX AND MIN
TEMPS NEAR SEASONAL NORMALS.
&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 12Z PACKAGE...EXPECT IFR VIS IN SMOKE FROM
PRESCRIBED BURNS AT KGCN...MVFR VIS IN SMOKE POSSIBLE AT KFLG. VIS
IMPROVING SHORTLY AFT SUNRISE WITH VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR
REMAINDER OF DAY AT AREA TERMINALS. AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED
FOR AMENDMENTS.
&&

.FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC.........DL
AVIATION.......RR

FOR NORTHERN ARIZONA WEATHER INFORMATION VISIT
WEATHER.GOV/FLAGSTAFF














000
FXUS65 KPSR 241003
AFDPSR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PHOENIX AZ
305 AM MST FRI OCT 24 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE AS STRONG HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS NORTHEASTWARD...WITH NEAR-RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES POSSIBLE TODAY
AND SATURDAY ACROSS SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA. A COOLING TREND IS THEN
EXPECTED FROM SUNDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES
INLAND INTO THE GREAT BASIN...WITH TEMPERATURES FALLING BACK TO NEAR
SEASONAL NORMALS. A RETURN TO ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES IS EXPECTED
BY WEDNESDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BECOMES REESTABLISHED ACROSS THE
WESTERN STATES.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
LATEST RAP ANALYSIS PLACES THE MID-UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONE NEAR
PHOENIX WITH HIGH CLOUDS DISPLACED WELL TO THE NORTH OF THE REGION.
A WARM SOUTHERLY FLOW IS EXPECTED TODAY ACROSS THE DESERT SOUTHWEST
AS THE RIDGE BUILDS NORTHWARD WHILE SLIDING EASTWARD. PHOENIX RECORD
HIGH OF 96 DEGREES IS IN JEOPARDY TODAY...THOUGH THE DAILY RECORD OF
105 DEGREES IN YUMA IS WELL OUT OF REACH.

SOUTHWESTERLY RETURN FLOW WILL DEVELOP SATURDAY BETWEEN THE RIDGE IN
THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND A PACIFIC TROUGH MOVING INTO THE GREAT
BASIN. MODELS ARE ALSO INDICATING AN INNOCUOUS UPPER LOW WILL BE
PULLED NORTHWARD INTO AZ. MAIN IMPACT FROM THIS SYSTEM WILL BE AN
INCREASE IN MID-LEVEL MOISTURE. GFS IVT IS STRONG ENOUGH TO SUGGEST
SOME POTENTIAL FOR SCATTERED CLOUDS AND SPRINKLES MAINLY LATE IN THE
DAY...THOUGH THE CHANCE FOR MEASURABLE RAIN REMAINS NEGLIGIBLE. NET
DECREASE IN HEIGHTS/THICKNESSES COMBINED WITH INCREASED CLOUD COVER
WILL RESULT IN COOLING THROUGH THE COLUMN...EXCEPT BELOW 900 MB
WHERE THE WELL-ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL PERSIST. LATEST
FORECAST OF 95 DEGREES IN PHOENIX REPRESENTS A SLIGHT DECREASE FROM
24 HOURS AGO...THOUGH IT IS CONCEIVABLE THAT TEMPERATURES WILL AGAIN
REACH THE RECORD OF 96 DEGREES FOR THE DAY.

DISCERNIBLE COOLING TREND WILL BEGIN SUNDAY AS THE AFOREMENTIONED
TROUGH MOVES EASTWARD INTO THE ROCKIES. COOLEST DAY WILL LIKELY BE
MONDAY AS A SOUTHERN STREAM PACIFIC TROUGH AMPLIFIES ACROSS THE
REGION. HOWEVER...TEMPERATURES WILL ONLY DROP TO NEAR OR EVEN
SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL.

WARMING TREND IS LIKELY BEGINNING TUESDAY-WEDNESDAY. DISTINCT
DIFFERENCE IN THE OPERATIONAL GFS/ECMWF IS APPARENT BY MIDWEEK
ACROSS THE WESTERN CONUS. LATEST ECMWF IS FAVORED GIVEN ITS STRONG
PERFORMANCE OVER THE PAST TWO WEEKS AND RELATIVELY LOW ENSEMBLE
SPREAD. CONSEQUENTLY...FORECAST TEMPERATURES HAVE BEEN INCREASED
OWING TO ANOTHER ANOMALOUSLY STRONG RIDGE ACROSS THE WESTERN STATES.
POPS REMAIN NIL THROUGH ALL OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...
SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA INCLUDING KPHX...KIWA AND KSDL...SOUTHEAST
CALIFORNIA AND SOUTHWEST ARIZONA INCLUDING KIPL AND KBLH...

HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT WILL KEEP SKIES MAINLY CLEAR
AT ALL THE TAF SITES THROUGH SATURDAY. WINDS TO REMAIN ON THE LIGHT
SIDE...MAINLY AOB 6 KTS...GENERALLY FOLLOWING THE USUAL DIURNAL
TRENDS.

AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDED TAFS.

&&

.CLIMATE...

RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES

DATE         PHOENIX
----         -------
FRI OCT 24   96 IN 2007
SAT OCT 25   96 IN 1990

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...
COOLER TEMPERATURES ALONG WITH INCREASED DAYTIME WINDS ARE EXPECTED
SUNDAY INTO WEDNESDAY AS A SERIES OF UPPER-LEVEL DISTURBANCES MOVES
OVER THE GREAT BASIN. THE STRONGEST WINDS WILL TAKE PLACE SUNDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING ACROSS SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA...SOUTHWEST AND
SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA...WITH SUSTAINED WINDS UP TO 20 MPH...WITH
GUSTS UP TO 30 MPH POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY OVER RIDGES AND UPPER SLOPES.
LIGHTER WINDS WILL THEN PREVAIL MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY AS HIGH
PRESSURE ONCE AGAIN BUILDS SLOWLY OVER THE DESERT SOUTHWEST. MINIMUM
RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES WILL GENERALLY RANGE IN THE TEENS ACROSS
THE LOWER DESERTS EACH DAY...WITH HIGHER VALUES IN THE
MOUNTAINS...FOLLOWED BY GOOD OVERNIGHT RECOVERY AREA-WIDE.

&&

.PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

AZ...NONE.

CA...NONE.

&&

$$

VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/PHOENIX

DISCUSSION...HIRSCH
CLIMATE...MO/HIRSCH
AVIATION...PERCHA
FIRE WEATHER...PERCHA






000
FXUS65 KFGZ 241001
AFDFGZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ
300 AM MST FRI OCT 24 2014

.SYNOPSIS...HIGH PRESSURE MOVING ACROSS ARIZONA TODAY WILL BRING
ANOTHER VERY WARM DAY WITH LIGHT WINDS. EXPECT MAX TEMPS TO BE FROM
5 TO 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. EXPECT BREEZY SOUTHWEST WINDS THIS
WEEKEND AS A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE GREAT BASIN. MAX
TEMPERATURES COOL TO SEASONAL NORMALS FROM SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...LOOK FOR FAIR WEATHER WITH LIGHT WINDS AGAIN TODAY.
MAX TEMPS WILL AGAIN BE FROM 5 TO 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL WHICH IS
UNSEASONABLY WARM.  H5 ( AT 18KFT MSL)  WIND STREAMLINES SHOW THE
HIGH PRESSURE CENTER OVER AZ THIS MORNING AND MOVING INTO NEW MEXICO
THIS AFTERNOON. LOW LEVEL WINDS (BELOW 10KFT MSL) BECOME LIGHT
SOUTHERLY THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS COCONINO AND YAVAPAI COUNTIES.

THIS WEEKEND...A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE GREAT BASIN.
NORTHERN ARIZONA CAN EXPECT SOUTHWEST WINDS IN THE 15 TO 25 MPH
RANGE WITH GUSTS FROM 25 TO 35 MPH. THE FASTEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED
ON SUNDAY AS THE FRONT NEARS THE AZ UT BORDER. PROGS ARE SHOWING
SOME LOW LEVEL MOISTURE MOVING NORTHWARD SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY
AND THUS EXPECT SOME UPSLOPE STRATUS ALONG THE MOGOLLON RIM FROM
WILLIAMS TO THE WHITE MTNS. THE SREF MODEL HINTS AT SOME LIGHT
UPSLOPE SHOWERS ACROSS THE EASTERN RIM AND WHITE MTNS AREAS SUNDAY
AFTERNOON AND WE HAVE ADDED A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR A FEW SHOWERS IN
THESE AREAS. ELSEWHERE NO MOISTURE SEEN BELOW H5 AND NO MODEL QPF SO
PRECIP CHANCES WERE REMOVED. THE SFC FRONTAL BOUNDARY DIPS INTO FAR
NRN AZ EARLY MONDAY. COOLER AIR BEHIND THIS FRONT WILL CAUSE MAX
TEMPERATURES TO FALL TO SEASONAL NORMALS LEVELS MONDAY.

MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. PROGS SHOW A DRY WEATHER PATTERN WITH
NORTHWESTERLY THEN LIGHT WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT. EXPECT MAX AND MIN
TEMPS NEAR SEASONAL NORMALS.
&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 12Z PACKAGE...EXPECT IFR/MVFR VIS IN SMOKE FROM
PRESCRIBED BURNS AT KGCN AND KFLG. VIS IMPROVING SHORTLY AFT SUNRISE
WITH VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR REMAINDER OF DAY AT AREA TERMINALS.
AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDMENTS.
&&

.FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC.........DL
AVIATION.......RR

FOR NORTHERN ARIZONA WEATHER INFORMATION VISIT
WEATHER.GOV/FLAGSTAFF











000
FXUS65 KFGZ 241001
AFDFGZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ
300 AM MST FRI OCT 24 2014

.SYNOPSIS...HIGH PRESSURE MOVING ACROSS ARIZONA TODAY WILL BRING
ANOTHER VERY WARM DAY WITH LIGHT WINDS. EXPECT MAX TEMPS TO BE FROM
5 TO 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. EXPECT BREEZY SOUTHWEST WINDS THIS
WEEKEND AS A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE GREAT BASIN. MAX
TEMPERATURES COOL TO SEASONAL NORMALS FROM SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...LOOK FOR FAIR WEATHER WITH LIGHT WINDS AGAIN TODAY.
MAX TEMPS WILL AGAIN BE FROM 5 TO 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL WHICH IS
UNSEASONABLY WARM.  H5 ( AT 18KFT MSL)  WIND STREAMLINES SHOW THE
HIGH PRESSURE CENTER OVER AZ THIS MORNING AND MOVING INTO NEW MEXICO
THIS AFTERNOON. LOW LEVEL WINDS (BELOW 10KFT MSL) BECOME LIGHT
SOUTHERLY THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS COCONINO AND YAVAPAI COUNTIES.

THIS WEEKEND...A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE GREAT BASIN.
NORTHERN ARIZONA CAN EXPECT SOUTHWEST WINDS IN THE 15 TO 25 MPH
RANGE WITH GUSTS FROM 25 TO 35 MPH. THE FASTEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED
ON SUNDAY AS THE FRONT NEARS THE AZ UT BORDER. PROGS ARE SHOWING
SOME LOW LEVEL MOISTURE MOVING NORTHWARD SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY
AND THUS EXPECT SOME UPSLOPE STRATUS ALONG THE MOGOLLON RIM FROM
WILLIAMS TO THE WHITE MTNS. THE SREF MODEL HINTS AT SOME LIGHT
UPSLOPE SHOWERS ACROSS THE EASTERN RIM AND WHITE MTNS AREAS SUNDAY
AFTERNOON AND WE HAVE ADDED A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR A FEW SHOWERS IN
THESE AREAS. ELSEWHERE NO MOISTURE SEEN BELOW H5 AND NO MODEL QPF SO
PRECIP CHANCES WERE REMOVED. THE SFC FRONTAL BOUNDARY DIPS INTO FAR
NRN AZ EARLY MONDAY. COOLER AIR BEHIND THIS FRONT WILL CAUSE MAX
TEMPERATURES TO FALL TO SEASONAL NORMALS LEVELS MONDAY.

MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. PROGS SHOW A DRY WEATHER PATTERN WITH
NORTHWESTERLY THEN LIGHT WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT. EXPECT MAX AND MIN
TEMPS NEAR SEASONAL NORMALS.
&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 12Z PACKAGE...EXPECT IFR/MVFR VIS IN SMOKE FROM
PRESCRIBED BURNS AT KGCN AND KFLG. VIS IMPROVING SHORTLY AFT SUNRISE
WITH VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR REMAINDER OF DAY AT AREA TERMINALS.
AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDMENTS.
&&

.FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC.........DL
AVIATION.......RR

FOR NORTHERN ARIZONA WEATHER INFORMATION VISIT
WEATHER.GOV/FLAGSTAFF











000
FXUS65 KTWC 241000
AFDTWC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ
300 AM MST FRI OCT 24 2014

.SYNOPSIS...STRONG HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WILL BRING NEAR RECORD TO
RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES AND DRY CONDITIONS TODAY AND SATURDAY. A
COOLING TREND WILL THEN OCCUR BY MONDAY AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
MOVES NORTH OF THE AREA. CONTINUED DRY WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES CLOSER
TO SEASONAL AVERAGES NEXT WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...RECORD OR NEAR RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE THE
MAIN STORY TODAY AND SATURDAY. STRONG HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE AREA
TODAY WILL MOVE EAST ON SATURDAY AS UPPER LEVEL TROF PUSHES INTO THE
WEST COAST. THIS TROF WILL MOVE ACROSS THE STATE SUNDAY AND MONDAY
BRINGING A SLIGHT UPTICK IN WIND SPEEDS AND MUCH COOLER HIGH
TEMPERATURES...ESPECIALLY ON MONDAY. SEASONAL HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR
THE REMAINDER OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...VALID THRU 25/12Z.
VFR CONDITIONS AT ALL TERMINALS. MAINLY CLEAR SKIES AND DIURNALLY
TERRAIN DRIVEN SURFACE WINDS LESS THAN 10 KTS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS SE
AZ THROUGH THE PERIOD. AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR TAF
AMENDMENTS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WILL RESULT IN DRY CONDITIONS
AND A WARMING TREND THROUGH SATURDAY. DIURNALLY TERRAIN DRIVEN
20-FOOT WINDS WILL BE LESS THAN 15 MPH THROUGH SATURDAY. BREEZY
WEST-NORTHWEST WINDS WINDS ARE LIKELY SUNDAY AND MONDAY AS A TROUGH
OF LOW PRESSURE PASSES TO OUR NORTH. SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES AND
SLIGHTLY DRIER CONDITIONS WILL THEN SET IN AS THE TROUGH EXITS THE
REGION.

&&

.TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

$$

VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...YOUTUBE...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/TUCSON







000
FXUS65 KTWC 241000
AFDTWC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ
300 AM MST FRI OCT 24 2014

.SYNOPSIS...STRONG HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WILL BRING NEAR RECORD TO
RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES AND DRY CONDITIONS TODAY AND SATURDAY. A
COOLING TREND WILL THEN OCCUR BY MONDAY AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
MOVES NORTH OF THE AREA. CONTINUED DRY WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES CLOSER
TO SEASONAL AVERAGES NEXT WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...RECORD OR NEAR RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE THE
MAIN STORY TODAY AND SATURDAY. STRONG HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE AREA
TODAY WILL MOVE EAST ON SATURDAY AS UPPER LEVEL TROF PUSHES INTO THE
WEST COAST. THIS TROF WILL MOVE ACROSS THE STATE SUNDAY AND MONDAY
BRINGING A SLIGHT UPTICK IN WIND SPEEDS AND MUCH COOLER HIGH
TEMPERATURES...ESPECIALLY ON MONDAY. SEASONAL HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR
THE REMAINDER OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...VALID THRU 25/12Z.
VFR CONDITIONS AT ALL TERMINALS. MAINLY CLEAR SKIES AND DIURNALLY
TERRAIN DRIVEN SURFACE WINDS LESS THAN 10 KTS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS SE
AZ THROUGH THE PERIOD. AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR TAF
AMENDMENTS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WILL RESULT IN DRY CONDITIONS
AND A WARMING TREND THROUGH SATURDAY. DIURNALLY TERRAIN DRIVEN
20-FOOT WINDS WILL BE LESS THAN 15 MPH THROUGH SATURDAY. BREEZY
WEST-NORTHWEST WINDS WINDS ARE LIKELY SUNDAY AND MONDAY AS A TROUGH
OF LOW PRESSURE PASSES TO OUR NORTH. SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES AND
SLIGHTLY DRIER CONDITIONS WILL THEN SET IN AS THE TROUGH EXITS THE
REGION.

&&

.TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

$$

VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...YOUTUBE...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/TUCSON







000
FXUS65 KFGZ 240539 CCA
AFDFGZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ
1040 PM MST THU OCT 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING ACROSS THE DESERT SOUTHWEST WILL
BRING VERY WARM DAYS THROUGH SATURDAY. EXPECT MAX TEMPS TO BE FROM 5
TO 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. AREAS OF SMOKE WITH LOW VISIBILITIES ARE
POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT NEAR PRESCRIBED BURNS. EXPECT BREEZY SOUTHWEST
WINDS THIS WEEKEND AS A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE REGION. HIGH
TEMPERATURES COOL BACK DOWN TO SEASONAL NORMALS FROM SUNDAY THROUGH
WEDNESDAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...QUIET EVENING OVER NORTHERN ARIZONA WITH LIGHT WINDS
AND ONLY HIGH CIRRUS MOVING ACROSS THE AREA. CURRENT FORECAST IS IN
GOOD SHAPE...NO UPDATES PLANNED.

&&


.PREV DISCUSSION /315 PM MST/...HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WILL BRING
SEASONABLY WARM WEATHER CONDITIONS TO NORTHERN ARIZONA THROUGH
SATURDAY. SEVERAL PRESCRIBED BURNS ARE LOFTING SMOKE INTO THE AIR
NEAR THE GRAND CANYON...WILLIAMS AND FLAGSTAFF THIS AFTERNOON.

PRESCRIBED BURNING THROUGH FRIDAY MAY LEAD TO AREAS OF DENSE SMOKE
OVERNIGHT AS THE BOUNDARY LAYER MIXING HEIGHT DECREASES IN THE
EVENING HOURS. SMOKE WILL THEN SETTLE DOWN SLOPE OF THE BURN AND MAY
POOL IN VALLEY AREAS. LOCATIONS NEAR WILLIAMS AND FLAGSTAFF MAY SEE
OVERNIGHT SMOKE REDUCE VISIBILITIES TO AROUND ONE HALF OF A MILE
IMPACTING SMOKE SENSITIVE POPULATIONS AND DRIVING ON LOCAL ROADS AND
HIGHWAYS INCLUDING INTERSTATE 17 AND 40.

FOR THE WEEKEND...A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE WESTERN STATES
PRODUCING DRY AND BREEZY WEATHER CONDITIONS ACROSS NORTHERN ARIZONA.
EXPECT SOUTHWEST WINDS IN THE 15 TO 25 MPH RANGE WITH GUSTS FROM 25
TO 35 MPH. THE STRONGEST WINDS IN THIS RANGE WILL DEVELOP ON SUNDAY
AS THE FRONTAL TROUGH MOVES INTO ARIZONA. THIS COLD FRONT WILL BE
MOSTLY DRY WITH ONLY THE SLIGHTEST CHANCES FOR A FEW SHOWERS IN THE
MOUNTAIN AREAS ALONG THE UTAH BORDER NORTH OF A LINE FROM THE SOUTH
RIM OF THE GRAND CANYON TO WINDOW ROCK. A COOLER AIR MASS BEHIND
THIS FRONT WILL MODERATE OUR HIGH TEMPERATURES BACK DOWN TO SEASONAL
NORMAL LEVELS ON SUNDAY.

MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...LONG RANGE MODEL PROJECTIONS CONTINUE TO
SHOW A DRY WEATHER PATTERN IN NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT. A SLIGHT
NORTHEASTERLY SURFACE WIND IS FORECAST ON TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY
ALONG THE MOGOLLON RIM REGION. ANOTHER HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE MOVES
ACROSS ARIZONA ON THURSDAY WITH ANOTHER WARMING TEMPERATURE TREND.

&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 06Z PACKAGE...SMOKE WILL SETTLE OVERNIGHT
POSSIBLY LEADING TO LCL IFR/MVFR VIS AT KFLG/KGCN TERMINALS.
OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED UNDER SCATTERED CIRRUS CLOUDS
AND LIGHT WINDS. ANY SMOKE IMPACTS TO TERMINALS OVERNIGHT SHOULD
IMPROVE BY 18Z FRIDAY. AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR
AMENDMENTS.

&&

.FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC.........BAK/BOHLIN
AVIATION.......BAK/MCS

FOR NORTHERN ARIZONA WEATHER INFORMATION VISIT
WEATHER.GOV/FLAGSTAFF









000
FXUS65 KFGZ 240353
AFDFGZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ
845 PM MST THU OCT 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING ACROSS THE DESERT SOUTHWEST WILL
BRING VERY WARM DAYS THROUGH SATURDAY. EXPECT MAX TEMPS TO BE FROM 5
TO 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. AREAS OF SMOKE WITH LOW VISIBILITIES ARE
POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT NEAR PRESCRIBED BURNS. EXPECT BREEZY SOUTHWEST
WINDS THIS WEEKEND AS A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE REGION. HIGH
TEMPERATURES COOL BACK DOWN TO SEASONAL NORMALS FROM SUNDAY THROUGH
WEDNESDAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...QUIET EVENING OVER NOTHERN ARIZONA WITH LIGHT WINDS
AND ONLY HIGH CIRRUS MOVING ACROSS THE AREA . CURRENT FORECAST IS
IN GOOD SHAPE...NO UPDATES PLANNED.

&&


.PREV DISCUSSION /315 PM MST/...HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WILL BRING
SEASONABLY WARM WEATHER CONDITIONS TO NORTHERN ARIZONA THROUGH
SATURDAY. SEVERAL PRESCRIBED BURNS ARE LOFTING SMOKE INTO THE AIR
NEAR THE GRAND CANYON...WILLIAMS AND FLAGSTAFF THIS AFTERNOON.

PRESCRIBED BURNING THROUGH FRIDAY MAY LEAD TO AREAS OF DENSE SMOKE
OVERNIGHT AS THE BOUNDARY LAYER MIXING HEIGHT DECREASES IN THE
EVENING HOURS. SMOKE WILL THEN SETTLE DOWN SLOPE OF THE BURN AND MAY
POOL IN VALLEY AREAS. LOCATIONS NEAR WILLIAMS AND FLAGSTAFF MAY SEE
OVERNIGHT SMOKE REDUCE VISIBILITIES TO AROUND ONE HALF OF A MILE
IMPACTING SMOKE SENSITIVE POPULATIONS AND DRIVING ON LOCAL ROADS AND
HIGHWAYS INCLUDING INTERSTATE 17 AND 40.

FOR THE WEEKEND...A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE WESTERN STATES
PRODUCING DRY AND BREEZY WEATHER CONDITIONS ACROSS NORTHERN ARIZONA.
EXPECT SOUTHWEST WINDS IN THE 15 TO 25 MPH RANGE WITH GUSTS FROM 25
TO 35 MPH. THE STRONGEST WINDS IN THIS RANGE WILL DEVELOP ON SUNDAY
AS THE FRONTAL TROUGH MOVES INTO ARIZONA. THIS COLD FRONT WILL BE
MOSTLY DRY WITH ONLY THE SLIGHTEST CHANCES FOR A FEW SHOWERS IN THE
MOUNTAIN AREAS ALONG THE UTAH BORDER NORTH OF A LINE FROM THE SOUTH
RIM OF THE GRAND CANYON TO WINDOW ROCK. A COOLER AIR MASS BEHIND
THIS FRONT WILL MODERATE OUR HIGH TEMPERATURES BACK DOWN TO SEASONAL
NORMAL LEVELS ON SUNDAY.

MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...LONG RANGE MODEL PROJECTIONS CONTINUE TO
SHOW A DRY WEATHER PATTERN IN NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT. A SLIGHT
NORTHEASTERLY SURFACE WIND IS FORECAST ON TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY
ALONG THE MOGOLLON RIM REGION. ANOTHER HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE MOVES
ACROSS ARIZONA ON THURSDAY WITH ANOTHER WARMING TEMPERATURE TREND.

&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 06Z PACKAGE...SMOKE WILL SETTLE OVERNIGHT
POSSIBLY LEADING TO LCL IFR/MVFR VIS AT KFLG/KGCN TERMINALS.
OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED UNDER SCATTERED CIRRUS CLOUDS
AND LIGHT WINDS. ANY SMOKE IMPACTS TO TERMINALS OVERNIGHT SHOULD
IMPROVE BY 18Z FRIDAY. AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR
AMENDMENTS.

&&

.FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC.........BAK/BOHLIN
AVIATION.......BAK/MCS

FOR NORTHERN ARIZONA WEATHER INFORMATION VISIT
WEATHER.GOV/FLAGSTAFF






000
FXUS65 KFGZ 240353
AFDFGZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ
845 PM MST THU OCT 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING ACROSS THE DESERT SOUTHWEST WILL
BRING VERY WARM DAYS THROUGH SATURDAY. EXPECT MAX TEMPS TO BE FROM 5
TO 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. AREAS OF SMOKE WITH LOW VISIBILITIES ARE
POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT NEAR PRESCRIBED BURNS. EXPECT BREEZY SOUTHWEST
WINDS THIS WEEKEND AS A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE REGION. HIGH
TEMPERATURES COOL BACK DOWN TO SEASONAL NORMALS FROM SUNDAY THROUGH
WEDNESDAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...QUIET EVENING OVER NOTHERN ARIZONA WITH LIGHT WINDS
AND ONLY HIGH CIRRUS MOVING ACROSS THE AREA . CURRENT FORECAST IS
IN GOOD SHAPE...NO UPDATES PLANNED.

&&


.PREV DISCUSSION /315 PM MST/...HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WILL BRING
SEASONABLY WARM WEATHER CONDITIONS TO NORTHERN ARIZONA THROUGH
SATURDAY. SEVERAL PRESCRIBED BURNS ARE LOFTING SMOKE INTO THE AIR
NEAR THE GRAND CANYON...WILLIAMS AND FLAGSTAFF THIS AFTERNOON.

PRESCRIBED BURNING THROUGH FRIDAY MAY LEAD TO AREAS OF DENSE SMOKE
OVERNIGHT AS THE BOUNDARY LAYER MIXING HEIGHT DECREASES IN THE
EVENING HOURS. SMOKE WILL THEN SETTLE DOWN SLOPE OF THE BURN AND MAY
POOL IN VALLEY AREAS. LOCATIONS NEAR WILLIAMS AND FLAGSTAFF MAY SEE
OVERNIGHT SMOKE REDUCE VISIBILITIES TO AROUND ONE HALF OF A MILE
IMPACTING SMOKE SENSITIVE POPULATIONS AND DRIVING ON LOCAL ROADS AND
HIGHWAYS INCLUDING INTERSTATE 17 AND 40.

FOR THE WEEKEND...A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE WESTERN STATES
PRODUCING DRY AND BREEZY WEATHER CONDITIONS ACROSS NORTHERN ARIZONA.
EXPECT SOUTHWEST WINDS IN THE 15 TO 25 MPH RANGE WITH GUSTS FROM 25
TO 35 MPH. THE STRONGEST WINDS IN THIS RANGE WILL DEVELOP ON SUNDAY
AS THE FRONTAL TROUGH MOVES INTO ARIZONA. THIS COLD FRONT WILL BE
MOSTLY DRY WITH ONLY THE SLIGHTEST CHANCES FOR A FEW SHOWERS IN THE
MOUNTAIN AREAS ALONG THE UTAH BORDER NORTH OF A LINE FROM THE SOUTH
RIM OF THE GRAND CANYON TO WINDOW ROCK. A COOLER AIR MASS BEHIND
THIS FRONT WILL MODERATE OUR HIGH TEMPERATURES BACK DOWN TO SEASONAL
NORMAL LEVELS ON SUNDAY.

MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...LONG RANGE MODEL PROJECTIONS CONTINUE TO
SHOW A DRY WEATHER PATTERN IN NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT. A SLIGHT
NORTHEASTERLY SURFACE WIND IS FORECAST ON TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY
ALONG THE MOGOLLON RIM REGION. ANOTHER HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE MOVES
ACROSS ARIZONA ON THURSDAY WITH ANOTHER WARMING TEMPERATURE TREND.

&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 06Z PACKAGE...SMOKE WILL SETTLE OVERNIGHT
POSSIBLY LEADING TO LCL IFR/MVFR VIS AT KFLG/KGCN TERMINALS.
OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED UNDER SCATTERED CIRRUS CLOUDS
AND LIGHT WINDS. ANY SMOKE IMPACTS TO TERMINALS OVERNIGHT SHOULD
IMPROVE BY 18Z FRIDAY. AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR
AMENDMENTS.

&&

.FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC.........BAK/BOHLIN
AVIATION.......BAK/MCS

FOR NORTHERN ARIZONA WEATHER INFORMATION VISIT
WEATHER.GOV/FLAGSTAFF






000
FXUS65 KTWC 240347
AFDTWC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ
846 PM MST THU OCT 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...STRONG HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WILL BRING NEAR RECORD TO
RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES AND DRY CONDITIONS FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. A
COOLING TREND WILL THEN OCCUR BY MONDAY AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
MOVES NORTH OF THE AREA. THERE MAY BE A STRAY SHOWER OR TWO IN THE
WHITE MOUNTAINS AND OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN ALONG THE NEW MEXICO
BORDER WITH THE PASSAGE OF THIS SYSTEM SUNDAY AND MONDAY. CONTINUED
DRY WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES CLOSER TO SEASONAL AVERAGES NEXT WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...FORECAST ON TRACK. NO UPDATES NECESSARY THIS EVENING.

&&

.AVIATION...VALID THRU 25/06Z.
MAINLY CLEAR SKIES WILL AND DIURNALLY TERRAIN DRIVEN SURFACE WINDS
LESS THAN 10 KTS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS SE AZ THROUGH THE PERIOD.
NORMAL AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR TAF AMENDMENTS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WILL RESULT IN DRY CONDITIONS
AND A WARMING TREND THROUGH SATURDAY. DIURNALLY TERRAIN DRIVEN
20-FOOT WINDS WILL BE LESS THAN 15 MPH THROUGH SATURDAY. A SLIGHT
COOLING TREND AND GUSTY WEST-NORTHWEST WINDS WINDS ARE LIKELY SUNDAY
AND MONDAY AS A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE PASSES TO OUR NORTH. DURING
THAT TIME PERIOD...A SHOWER CANNOT BE RULED OUT OVER THE HIGHER
PEAKS NEAR THE NEW MEXICO BORDER.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...THE UPPER RIDGE CENTERED TO OUR SOUTHWEST
CONTINUES AMPLIFY/BUILD NORTHEAST TODAY. 20Z OBSERVATIONS ACROSS
SOUTHERN ARIZONA INDICATE VALLEY TEMPERATURES IN THE 80S TO NEAR 90
DEGREES...WITH A COUPLE OF HOURS OF SOLAR HEATING STILL ON TAP YET.
THE MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT IN SHORT TERM WITH THE CONTINUED
AMPLIFICATION OF RIDGE AS IT SHIFTS EASTWARD ACROSS THE DESERT
SOUTHWEST TONIGHT AND FRIDAY. THE RIDGE AXIS WILL THEN BE EAST OF
THE STATE ON FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. BY SATURDAY...SOUTHWEST FLOW/WAA
WILL TAKE PLACE ACROSS THE REGION AS A TROUGH BEGINS TO DIG SOUTH
ALONG THE WEST COAST. THICKNESS VALUES SUPPORT A COUPLE OF DEGREES
OF HEATING ON FRIDAY (COMPARED TO TODAY`S HIGHS) AND THEN AFTERNOON
HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEARLY UNCHANGED SATURDAY. THIS WILL
RESULT IN NEAR RECORD TO RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY. FOR TUCSON...FORECAST HIGHS ARE 94 DEGREES F BOTH FRIDAY
AND SATURDAY...WHICH IS JUST BELOW RECORD LEVELS. STILL EXPECT A
STATION OR TWO ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA TO TIE OR BREAK PREVIOUS
RECORDS DURING THIS UNSEASONABLY WARM PERIOD...AS HIGH TEMPERATURES
TOP OUT AT 7-12 DEGREES F ABOVE NORMAL.

A TROUGH WILL THEN PUSH EAST ACROSS THE WESTERN UNITED STATES SUNDAY
AND MONDAY...RESULTING IN A COUPLE OF DEGREES OF COOLING SUNDAY AND
MORE SIGNIFICANT COOLING ON MONDAY. MAIN MOISTURE/DYNAMIC FIELDS TO
STAY WELL NORTH OF THE STATE. HOWEVER...BOTH THE GFS/ECMWF MODELS
INDICATE SOME MOISTURE POOLING RIGHT ALONG THE TROUGH AXIS AS IT
MOVES EAST ACROSS THE STATE SUNDAY/MONDAY. THERE MAY BE JUST ENOUGH
MOISTURE TO SQUEEZE OUT A SHOWER OR TWO ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN
ALONG NEW MEXICO BORDER WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE TROUGH AXIS. HAVE
PUT IN SOME SINGLE DIGIT POPS SUNDAY AND SLIGHT CHANCE (10%) POPS
MONDAY IN THE WHITE MOUNTAINS...WITH LESSER VALUES IN THE HIGHER
TERRAIN SOUTH OF THE WHITE`S ALONG THE NEW MEXICO BORDER.

DRY CONDITIONS AND NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE THEN EXPECTED BEHIND
THE TROUGH PASSAGE TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY OF NEXT WEEK. THE MODELS
THEN INDICATE ANOTHER STRONG RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING OVER
THE EASTERN PACIFIC/SOUTHWEST US LATE NEXT WEEK FOR A RETURN TO WELL
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES.

&&

.TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

$$

VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...YOUTUBE...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/TUCSON









000
FXUS65 KTWC 240347
AFDTWC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ
846 PM MST THU OCT 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...STRONG HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WILL BRING NEAR RECORD TO
RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES AND DRY CONDITIONS FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. A
COOLING TREND WILL THEN OCCUR BY MONDAY AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
MOVES NORTH OF THE AREA. THERE MAY BE A STRAY SHOWER OR TWO IN THE
WHITE MOUNTAINS AND OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN ALONG THE NEW MEXICO
BORDER WITH THE PASSAGE OF THIS SYSTEM SUNDAY AND MONDAY. CONTINUED
DRY WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES CLOSER TO SEASONAL AVERAGES NEXT WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...FORECAST ON TRACK. NO UPDATES NECESSARY THIS EVENING.

&&

.AVIATION...VALID THRU 25/06Z.
MAINLY CLEAR SKIES WILL AND DIURNALLY TERRAIN DRIVEN SURFACE WINDS
LESS THAN 10 KTS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS SE AZ THROUGH THE PERIOD.
NORMAL AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR TAF AMENDMENTS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WILL RESULT IN DRY CONDITIONS
AND A WARMING TREND THROUGH SATURDAY. DIURNALLY TERRAIN DRIVEN
20-FOOT WINDS WILL BE LESS THAN 15 MPH THROUGH SATURDAY. A SLIGHT
COOLING TREND AND GUSTY WEST-NORTHWEST WINDS WINDS ARE LIKELY SUNDAY
AND MONDAY AS A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE PASSES TO OUR NORTH. DURING
THAT TIME PERIOD...A SHOWER CANNOT BE RULED OUT OVER THE HIGHER
PEAKS NEAR THE NEW MEXICO BORDER.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...THE UPPER RIDGE CENTERED TO OUR SOUTHWEST
CONTINUES AMPLIFY/BUILD NORTHEAST TODAY. 20Z OBSERVATIONS ACROSS
SOUTHERN ARIZONA INDICATE VALLEY TEMPERATURES IN THE 80S TO NEAR 90
DEGREES...WITH A COUPLE OF HOURS OF SOLAR HEATING STILL ON TAP YET.
THE MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT IN SHORT TERM WITH THE CONTINUED
AMPLIFICATION OF RIDGE AS IT SHIFTS EASTWARD ACROSS THE DESERT
SOUTHWEST TONIGHT AND FRIDAY. THE RIDGE AXIS WILL THEN BE EAST OF
THE STATE ON FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. BY SATURDAY...SOUTHWEST FLOW/WAA
WILL TAKE PLACE ACROSS THE REGION AS A TROUGH BEGINS TO DIG SOUTH
ALONG THE WEST COAST. THICKNESS VALUES SUPPORT A COUPLE OF DEGREES
OF HEATING ON FRIDAY (COMPARED TO TODAY`S HIGHS) AND THEN AFTERNOON
HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEARLY UNCHANGED SATURDAY. THIS WILL
RESULT IN NEAR RECORD TO RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY. FOR TUCSON...FORECAST HIGHS ARE 94 DEGREES F BOTH FRIDAY
AND SATURDAY...WHICH IS JUST BELOW RECORD LEVELS. STILL EXPECT A
STATION OR TWO ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA TO TIE OR BREAK PREVIOUS
RECORDS DURING THIS UNSEASONABLY WARM PERIOD...AS HIGH TEMPERATURES
TOP OUT AT 7-12 DEGREES F ABOVE NORMAL.

A TROUGH WILL THEN PUSH EAST ACROSS THE WESTERN UNITED STATES SUNDAY
AND MONDAY...RESULTING IN A COUPLE OF DEGREES OF COOLING SUNDAY AND
MORE SIGNIFICANT COOLING ON MONDAY. MAIN MOISTURE/DYNAMIC FIELDS TO
STAY WELL NORTH OF THE STATE. HOWEVER...BOTH THE GFS/ECMWF MODELS
INDICATE SOME MOISTURE POOLING RIGHT ALONG THE TROUGH AXIS AS IT
MOVES EAST ACROSS THE STATE SUNDAY/MONDAY. THERE MAY BE JUST ENOUGH
MOISTURE TO SQUEEZE OUT A SHOWER OR TWO ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN
ALONG NEW MEXICO BORDER WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE TROUGH AXIS. HAVE
PUT IN SOME SINGLE DIGIT POPS SUNDAY AND SLIGHT CHANCE (10%) POPS
MONDAY IN THE WHITE MOUNTAINS...WITH LESSER VALUES IN THE HIGHER
TERRAIN SOUTH OF THE WHITE`S ALONG THE NEW MEXICO BORDER.

DRY CONDITIONS AND NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE THEN EXPECTED BEHIND
THE TROUGH PASSAGE TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY OF NEXT WEEK. THE MODELS
THEN INDICATE ANOTHER STRONG RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING OVER
THE EASTERN PACIFIC/SOUTHWEST US LATE NEXT WEEK FOR A RETURN TO WELL
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES.

&&

.TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

$$

VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...YOUTUBE...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/TUCSON









000
FXUS65 KPSR 240315
AFDPSR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PHOENIX AZ
815 PM MST THU OCT 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A GRADUAL WARMING TREND IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THIS WEEK AS STRONG HIGH PRESSURE STRENGTHENS OVER THE
REGION...WITH NEAR-RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES POSSIBLE ON FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY ACROSS SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA. A COOLING TREND IS THEN
EXPECTED TO TAKE PLACE FROM SUNDAY ONWARD INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AS
LOW PRESSURE MOVES INLAND INTO THE GREAT BASIN...WITH TEMPERATURES
FALLING BACK TO NEAR SEASONAL NORMALS.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
STRONG HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT FIRMLY IN PLACE ACROSS THE DESERT
SOUTHWEST WITH H5 HEIGHTS AROUND 589DM ACROSS ARIZONA PER THE 00Z
PLOT DATA. IR IMAGERY AT 8 PM SHOWED GENLY CLEAR SKIES ACROSS THE
AREA. DESPITE THE PARTIAL ECLIPSE...PLENTIFUL SUNSHINE AND VERY HIGH
HEIGHTS RESULTED IN VERY WARM TEMPS ACROSS THE LOWER DESERTS TODAY.
PHOENIX TOPPED OUT AT 94 DEGREES...8 DEGREES ABOVE SEASONAL NORMALS.
EXPECT ANOTHER VERY WARM DAY TOMORROW WITH HIGHS SLIGHTLY HIGHER AS
THE RIDGE CONTINUES TO BUILD. FOR THE REST OF TONIGHT EXPECT CLEAR
SKIES ALONG WITH LIGHT VARIABLE TO DOWNSLOPE WINDS...AND MILD
OVERNIGHT TEMPS. NO UPDATES NEEDED TO THE FORECAST ATTM.

.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
LOTS OF MID 90 DEGREE READINGS ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN
PORTIONS OF THE STATE THIS AFTERNOON...AS WELL AS MID TO UPPER 70S
ACROSS THE NORTHERN LOCATIONS OF ARIZONA. MOSTLY CALM WINDS AND
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES OUTSIDE OF SOME HIGH CLOUDS ACROSS MOHAVE AND
COCONINO COUNTIES. FOR THE MONTH OF OCTOBER SO FAR...WE HAVE ONLY
HAD 4 DAYS BELOW 90 DEGREES. OUR SEASONAL NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE
RAPIDLY DROPPING EACH DAY OR SO AND WILL BE IN THE LOW 80S BY THE
END OF THE MONTH.

LITTLE HAS CHANGED IN THE FORECAST THINKING FOR THE NEXT FEW
DAYS...GRADUAL WARMING TREND WITH DRY AIR IN PLACE AS A RIDGE OF
HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO SETTLE IN ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST. WHAT WILL
BE A WEAK TROUGH IMPACTING THE DESERT SOUTHWEST LATER THIS WEEKEND
WILL HAVE LITTLE IMPACT TO US IN ARIZONA...OUTSIDE OF COOLING
TEMPERATURES AND A SLIGHT INCREASE IN MOISTURE CONTENT. TEMPERATURES
WILL COOL BACK TO SEASONAL NORMALS BY THE EARLY START OF NEXT
WEEK...WITH 500MB HEIGHTS FALLING BELOW 576DM EARLY MONDAY. BECAUSE
OF THIS...MONDAY LOOKS TO BE THE COOLEST DAY IN THE NEXT
STRETCH...HOWEVER COOL MEANING CLOSER TO SEASONAL NORMAL.

.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION.../ISSUED AT 320AM MST/PDT OCT 23/...
COOLING TREND WILL BEGIN SUNDAY AS THE AFOREMENTIONED TROUGH MOVES
INTO THE GREAT BASIN. COOLEST DAY WILL LIKELY BE MONDAY AS THE
SOUTHERN EXTENSION OF THE TROUGH PASSES BY THE FOUR CORNERS. LATEST
OFFICIAL FORECAST OF 85 DEGREES IN PHOENIX FOR MONDAY WOULD BE THE
COOLEST DAY SINCE OCTOBER 9TH. OPERATIONAL GFS/ECMWF REMAIN
CONSISTENT SUGGESTING NIL MOISTURE TRANSPORT OR PRECIPITATION
POTENTIAL ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROUGH AND POPS REMAIN NEAR 0 PERCENT.
THEREAFTER...ANOTHER RIDGE WILL RESULT IN A GRADUAL WARMING/DRYING
TREND THROUGH THE END OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...
SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA INCLUDING KPHX...KIWA...AND KSDL...AND
SOUTHWEST ARIZONA AND SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA INCLUDING KIPL AND KBLH...

STRONG HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WILL PERSIST INTO FRIDAY FOR GENERALLY
CLEAR SKIES AT THE TAF SITES. VERY WEAK SURFACE AND LOW LEVEL
GRADIENTS SO WIND AT THE TERMINALS WILL FAVOR LIGHT VARIABLE LESS
THAN 5KT FOR THE MOST PART...OCCASIONALLY TENDING TOWARDS NORMAL
DIURNAL SPEEDS AND DIRECTIONS. NO AVIATION CONCERNS FOR THE NEXT 24
HOURS AT LEAST.

AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDED TAFS.

&&

.CLIMATE...

RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES

DATE         PHOENIX
----         -------
FRI OCT 24   96 IN 2007
SAT OCT 25   96 IN 1990

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...
COOLER TEMPERATURES ALONG WITH INCREASED DAYTIME WINDS ARE EXPECTED
SUNDAY INTO WEDNESDAY AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVES OVER THE GREAT
BASIN. THE STRONGEST WINDS WILL TAKE PLACE SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING ACROSS SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA...SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH-CENTRAL
ARIZONA...WITH GUSTS UP TO 30 MPH POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY OVER RIDGES
AND UPPER SLOPES. LIGHTER WINDS WILL PREVAIL MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY
AS HIGH PRESSURE ONCE AGAIN BUILDS OVER THE DESERT SOUTHWEST.
MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES WILL GENERALLY RANGE IN THE TEENS
ACROSS THE LOWER DESERTS EACH DAY...WITH HIGHER VALUES IN THE
MOUNTAINS...FOLLOWED BY GOOD OVERNIGHT RECOVERY AREA-WIDE.

&&

.PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

AZ...NONE.

CA...NONE.

&&

$$

VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/PHOENIX

DISCUSSION...CB
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...DEWEY/HIRSCH
CLIMATE...MO/HIRSCH
AVIATION...CB
FIRE WEATHER...MEYERS











000
FXUS65 KPSR 240315
AFDPSR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PHOENIX AZ
815 PM MST THU OCT 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A GRADUAL WARMING TREND IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THIS WEEK AS STRONG HIGH PRESSURE STRENGTHENS OVER THE
REGION...WITH NEAR-RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES POSSIBLE ON FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY ACROSS SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA. A COOLING TREND IS THEN
EXPECTED TO TAKE PLACE FROM SUNDAY ONWARD INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AS
LOW PRESSURE MOVES INLAND INTO THE GREAT BASIN...WITH TEMPERATURES
FALLING BACK TO NEAR SEASONAL NORMALS.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
STRONG HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT FIRMLY IN PLACE ACROSS THE DESERT
SOUTHWEST WITH H5 HEIGHTS AROUND 589DM ACROSS ARIZONA PER THE 00Z
PLOT DATA. IR IMAGERY AT 8 PM SHOWED GENLY CLEAR SKIES ACROSS THE
AREA. DESPITE THE PARTIAL ECLIPSE...PLENTIFUL SUNSHINE AND VERY HIGH
HEIGHTS RESULTED IN VERY WARM TEMPS ACROSS THE LOWER DESERTS TODAY.
PHOENIX TOPPED OUT AT 94 DEGREES...8 DEGREES ABOVE SEASONAL NORMALS.
EXPECT ANOTHER VERY WARM DAY TOMORROW WITH HIGHS SLIGHTLY HIGHER AS
THE RIDGE CONTINUES TO BUILD. FOR THE REST OF TONIGHT EXPECT CLEAR
SKIES ALONG WITH LIGHT VARIABLE TO DOWNSLOPE WINDS...AND MILD
OVERNIGHT TEMPS. NO UPDATES NEEDED TO THE FORECAST ATTM.

.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
LOTS OF MID 90 DEGREE READINGS ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN
PORTIONS OF THE STATE THIS AFTERNOON...AS WELL AS MID TO UPPER 70S
ACROSS THE NORTHERN LOCATIONS OF ARIZONA. MOSTLY CALM WINDS AND
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES OUTSIDE OF SOME HIGH CLOUDS ACROSS MOHAVE AND
COCONINO COUNTIES. FOR THE MONTH OF OCTOBER SO FAR...WE HAVE ONLY
HAD 4 DAYS BELOW 90 DEGREES. OUR SEASONAL NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE
RAPIDLY DROPPING EACH DAY OR SO AND WILL BE IN THE LOW 80S BY THE
END OF THE MONTH.

LITTLE HAS CHANGED IN THE FORECAST THINKING FOR THE NEXT FEW
DAYS...GRADUAL WARMING TREND WITH DRY AIR IN PLACE AS A RIDGE OF
HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO SETTLE IN ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST. WHAT WILL
BE A WEAK TROUGH IMPACTING THE DESERT SOUTHWEST LATER THIS WEEKEND
WILL HAVE LITTLE IMPACT TO US IN ARIZONA...OUTSIDE OF COOLING
TEMPERATURES AND A SLIGHT INCREASE IN MOISTURE CONTENT. TEMPERATURES
WILL COOL BACK TO SEASONAL NORMALS BY THE EARLY START OF NEXT
WEEK...WITH 500MB HEIGHTS FALLING BELOW 576DM EARLY MONDAY. BECAUSE
OF THIS...MONDAY LOOKS TO BE THE COOLEST DAY IN THE NEXT
STRETCH...HOWEVER COOL MEANING CLOSER TO SEASONAL NORMAL.

.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION.../ISSUED AT 320AM MST/PDT OCT 23/...
COOLING TREND WILL BEGIN SUNDAY AS THE AFOREMENTIONED TROUGH MOVES
INTO THE GREAT BASIN. COOLEST DAY WILL LIKELY BE MONDAY AS THE
SOUTHERN EXTENSION OF THE TROUGH PASSES BY THE FOUR CORNERS. LATEST
OFFICIAL FORECAST OF 85 DEGREES IN PHOENIX FOR MONDAY WOULD BE THE
COOLEST DAY SINCE OCTOBER 9TH. OPERATIONAL GFS/ECMWF REMAIN
CONSISTENT SUGGESTING NIL MOISTURE TRANSPORT OR PRECIPITATION
POTENTIAL ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROUGH AND POPS REMAIN NEAR 0 PERCENT.
THEREAFTER...ANOTHER RIDGE WILL RESULT IN A GRADUAL WARMING/DRYING
TREND THROUGH THE END OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...
SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA INCLUDING KPHX...KIWA...AND KSDL...AND
SOUTHWEST ARIZONA AND SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA INCLUDING KIPL AND KBLH...

STRONG HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WILL PERSIST INTO FRIDAY FOR GENERALLY
CLEAR SKIES AT THE TAF SITES. VERY WEAK SURFACE AND LOW LEVEL
GRADIENTS SO WIND AT THE TERMINALS WILL FAVOR LIGHT VARIABLE LESS
THAN 5KT FOR THE MOST PART...OCCASIONALLY TENDING TOWARDS NORMAL
DIURNAL SPEEDS AND DIRECTIONS. NO AVIATION CONCERNS FOR THE NEXT 24
HOURS AT LEAST.

AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDED TAFS.

&&

.CLIMATE...

RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES

DATE         PHOENIX
----         -------
FRI OCT 24   96 IN 2007
SAT OCT 25   96 IN 1990

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...
COOLER TEMPERATURES ALONG WITH INCREASED DAYTIME WINDS ARE EXPECTED
SUNDAY INTO WEDNESDAY AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVES OVER THE GREAT
BASIN. THE STRONGEST WINDS WILL TAKE PLACE SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING ACROSS SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA...SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH-CENTRAL
ARIZONA...WITH GUSTS UP TO 30 MPH POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY OVER RIDGES
AND UPPER SLOPES. LIGHTER WINDS WILL PREVAIL MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY
AS HIGH PRESSURE ONCE AGAIN BUILDS OVER THE DESERT SOUTHWEST.
MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES WILL GENERALLY RANGE IN THE TEENS
ACROSS THE LOWER DESERTS EACH DAY...WITH HIGHER VALUES IN THE
MOUNTAINS...FOLLOWED BY GOOD OVERNIGHT RECOVERY AREA-WIDE.

&&

.PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

AZ...NONE.

CA...NONE.

&&

$$

VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/PHOENIX

DISCUSSION...CB
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...DEWEY/HIRSCH
CLIMATE...MO/HIRSCH
AVIATION...CB
FIRE WEATHER...MEYERS











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