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000
FXUS65 KPSR 202243 AAA
AFDPSR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PHOENIX AZ
340 PM MST SAT SEP 20 2014

.UPDATE...UPDATED AVIATION AND FIRE WEATHER DISCUSSIONS.

&&


.SYNOPSIS...
LINGERING MOISTURE ACROSS THE REGION AND LOW PRESSURE APPROACHING
FROM THE WEST WILL KEEP AT LEAST SLIGHT CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS FOR TODAY. DRIER AIR WILL GRADUALLY FILTER
INTO THE REGION SUNDAY AND MONDAY FOR A DECLINE IN STORM CHANCES.
SLIGHT CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE CONFINED TO THE
HIGHER MOUNTAINS OF SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA DURING THE MIDDLE OF NEXT
WEEK WITH SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES. AN APPROACHING
PACIFIC WEATHER SYSTEM LATE NEXT WEEK WILL LEAD TO AN INCREASE IN
STORM CHANCES.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
MODEL THETA-E GRADIENT ALIGNED WELL WITH THE FAVORABLE LOCATIONS OF
HIGHER MOISTURE CONTENT AND GREATER INSTABILITY. THE RAP MLCAPE
VALUES JUST OVER 1500 J/KG ALONG AN AXIS FROM NOGALES TO BULLHEAD
CITY. WESTERN MARICOPA COUNTY...LA PAZ AND NORTHERN YUMA COUNTIES
LOOK TO BE THE FAVORABLE AREAS FOR CONVECTION THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. CAN NOT RULE OUT ISOLATED STORMS SNEAKING IN TO NORTHERN
PINAL COUNTY FROM SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA...AS THE GREATER TUCSON AREA
HAS BEEN INCREASING IN ACTIVITY LATE THIS MORNING. PRECIPITABLE
WATER VALUES HOVERING AROUND 1.5 INCHES ACROSS THE LOWER DESERTS AND
A VERY BROAD DIFLUENT MID-LAYER STRETCHING NORTH-NORTHWEST THROUGH
THE GREAT BASIN ALLOWS FOR CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. MOISTURE AND DYNAMICS ARE IN PLACE AND THE POTENTIAL ENERGY
IS THERE...NOW THE CHALLENGE WILL BE FOR A TRIGGER TO PUSH THE
DEVELOPMENT NEEDED FOR THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT.

STORM CHANCES WILL BE ON THE DECLINE THROUGH MONDAY BEFORE COMING TO
A QUIET HOLDING PATTERN THROUGH THE WEEK. MONSOON MOISTURE LOOKS TO
HANG AROUND THIS WEEK BUT MAINLY ACROSS EASTERN ARIZONA. THE UPPER
LEVEL DISTURBANCE IS PROGGED TO MOVE NORTH THROUGH THE GREAT BASIN
BY MONDAY AND WILL ALLOW A WESTERLY FLOW TO SETTLE IN PLACE OVER THE
SOUTHWEST DESERTS AS WELL AS A DRYING TREND. WILL KEEP SLIGHT CHANCE
MENTION IN ZONE 24 FOR THE HIGHER TERRAIN LOCATIONS. TEMPERATURES
WILL HAVE LITTLE DAY TO DAY CHANGE...REMAINING AT OR A FEW DEGREES
ABOVE SEASONAL NORMAL WITH HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATING THE REGION
THROUGH MID WEEK.

THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...ATTENTION THEN TURNS TO A POSSIBLE
SEASONAL TRANSITION SYSTEM FOR LATE WEEK INTO NEXT WEEKEND.
CONFIDENCE IS STILL NOT VERY HIGH ON THE SPECIFICS OF THE SYSTEM BUT
THE 00Z OPERATIONAL MODELS HAVE COME IN CLOSER AGREEMENT THAT A DEEP
PACIFIC TROUGH WILL SLIDE THROUGH CALIFORNIA ON FRIDAY AND POSSIBLY
AS FAR SOUTH AS ARIZONA SOMETIME NEXT WEEKEND. WIDESPREAD SLIGHT
CHANCE POPS ARE IN THE FORECAST FOR FRIDAY. EITHER WAY IT IS FAIRLY
LIKELY THIS LOW WILL USER IN COOLER AND MUCH DRIER AIR...AND
POTENTIALLY END OUR MONSOON SEASON.

&&

.AVIATION...
SOUTH-CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ARIZONA INCLUDING KPHX...KIWA...KSDL...
ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL PERSIST THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING OVER SOUTH-CENTRAL AZ...A FEW STORMS COULD
BRIEFLY IMPACT LOW DESERT TERMINALS WITH GUSTY OUTFLOWS UP TO 40
KT...AND REDUCED VISIBILITY DOWN TO 3SM IN BLDU. EXPECT SCT-BKN
CLOUD DECKS AOA 7000FT TO PERSIST OVERNIGHT TIMES INTO SUNDAY
MORNING. ONCE POTENTIAL FOR OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES DIMINISHES AFTER
04Z...WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE LIGHT...LESS THAN 10KT AND FAVOR THE
EAST SOUTHEAST AT ALL TERMINALS.

SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA INCLUDING KIPL...AND KBLH...
OTHER THAN A FEW CLOUDS GENERALLY AOA 10KFT...EXPECT MOSTLY CLEAR
SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS OVERNIGHT THROUGH AT LEAST 18Z SUNDAY
AFTERNOON.

AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDED TAFS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...
MOISTURE RETREAT DUE TO WESTERLY FLOW WILL KEEP STORM CHANCES
MINIMAL THROUGH THURSDAY AND LIMITED TO THE HIGHER MOUNTAINS OF
SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA. MEANWHILE...TEMPERATURES NUDGE UPWARD A FEW
DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. HUMIDITIES ON THE LOWER DESERTS DROP BELOW 15
PERCENT THOUGH MAX HUMIDITIES REMAIN FAIR. NO STRONG WINDS ARE
EXPECTED DURING THIS TIME FRAME. ON FRIDAY...A PACIFIC WEATHER
SYSTEM WILL PULL MOISTURE NORTHWARD OVER THE REGION FOR A RETURN OF
STORM CHANCES INTO NEXT WEEKEND...MAINLY EAST OF THE LOWER COLORADO
RIVER VALLEY. IN ADDITION...COOLER TEMPERATURES AND BREEZY TO
LOCALLY WINDY CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED AS WELL.

&&

.PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

AZ...NONE.

CA...NONE.

&&

$$

VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/PHOENIX

DISCUSSION...DEWEY
AVIATION...MEYERS
FIRE WEATHER...MEYERS/AJ





000
FXUS65 KPSR 202243 AAA
AFDPSR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PHOENIX AZ
340 PM MST SAT SEP 20 2014

.UPDATE...UPDATED AVIATION AND FIRE WEATHER DISCUSSIONS.

&&


.SYNOPSIS...
LINGERING MOISTURE ACROSS THE REGION AND LOW PRESSURE APPROACHING
FROM THE WEST WILL KEEP AT LEAST SLIGHT CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS FOR TODAY. DRIER AIR WILL GRADUALLY FILTER
INTO THE REGION SUNDAY AND MONDAY FOR A DECLINE IN STORM CHANCES.
SLIGHT CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE CONFINED TO THE
HIGHER MOUNTAINS OF SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA DURING THE MIDDLE OF NEXT
WEEK WITH SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES. AN APPROACHING
PACIFIC WEATHER SYSTEM LATE NEXT WEEK WILL LEAD TO AN INCREASE IN
STORM CHANCES.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
MODEL THETA-E GRADIENT ALIGNED WELL WITH THE FAVORABLE LOCATIONS OF
HIGHER MOISTURE CONTENT AND GREATER INSTABILITY. THE RAP MLCAPE
VALUES JUST OVER 1500 J/KG ALONG AN AXIS FROM NOGALES TO BULLHEAD
CITY. WESTERN MARICOPA COUNTY...LA PAZ AND NORTHERN YUMA COUNTIES
LOOK TO BE THE FAVORABLE AREAS FOR CONVECTION THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. CAN NOT RULE OUT ISOLATED STORMS SNEAKING IN TO NORTHERN
PINAL COUNTY FROM SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA...AS THE GREATER TUCSON AREA
HAS BEEN INCREASING IN ACTIVITY LATE THIS MORNING. PRECIPITABLE
WATER VALUES HOVERING AROUND 1.5 INCHES ACROSS THE LOWER DESERTS AND
A VERY BROAD DIFLUENT MID-LAYER STRETCHING NORTH-NORTHWEST THROUGH
THE GREAT BASIN ALLOWS FOR CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. MOISTURE AND DYNAMICS ARE IN PLACE AND THE POTENTIAL ENERGY
IS THERE...NOW THE CHALLENGE WILL BE FOR A TRIGGER TO PUSH THE
DEVELOPMENT NEEDED FOR THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT.

STORM CHANCES WILL BE ON THE DECLINE THROUGH MONDAY BEFORE COMING TO
A QUIET HOLDING PATTERN THROUGH THE WEEK. MONSOON MOISTURE LOOKS TO
HANG AROUND THIS WEEK BUT MAINLY ACROSS EASTERN ARIZONA. THE UPPER
LEVEL DISTURBANCE IS PROGGED TO MOVE NORTH THROUGH THE GREAT BASIN
BY MONDAY AND WILL ALLOW A WESTERLY FLOW TO SETTLE IN PLACE OVER THE
SOUTHWEST DESERTS AS WELL AS A DRYING TREND. WILL KEEP SLIGHT CHANCE
MENTION IN ZONE 24 FOR THE HIGHER TERRAIN LOCATIONS. TEMPERATURES
WILL HAVE LITTLE DAY TO DAY CHANGE...REMAINING AT OR A FEW DEGREES
ABOVE SEASONAL NORMAL WITH HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATING THE REGION
THROUGH MID WEEK.

THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...ATTENTION THEN TURNS TO A POSSIBLE
SEASONAL TRANSITION SYSTEM FOR LATE WEEK INTO NEXT WEEKEND.
CONFIDENCE IS STILL NOT VERY HIGH ON THE SPECIFICS OF THE SYSTEM BUT
THE 00Z OPERATIONAL MODELS HAVE COME IN CLOSER AGREEMENT THAT A DEEP
PACIFIC TROUGH WILL SLIDE THROUGH CALIFORNIA ON FRIDAY AND POSSIBLY
AS FAR SOUTH AS ARIZONA SOMETIME NEXT WEEKEND. WIDESPREAD SLIGHT
CHANCE POPS ARE IN THE FORECAST FOR FRIDAY. EITHER WAY IT IS FAIRLY
LIKELY THIS LOW WILL USER IN COOLER AND MUCH DRIER AIR...AND
POTENTIALLY END OUR MONSOON SEASON.

&&

.AVIATION...
SOUTH-CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ARIZONA INCLUDING KPHX...KIWA...KSDL...
ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL PERSIST THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING OVER SOUTH-CENTRAL AZ...A FEW STORMS COULD
BRIEFLY IMPACT LOW DESERT TERMINALS WITH GUSTY OUTFLOWS UP TO 40
KT...AND REDUCED VISIBILITY DOWN TO 3SM IN BLDU. EXPECT SCT-BKN
CLOUD DECKS AOA 7000FT TO PERSIST OVERNIGHT TIMES INTO SUNDAY
MORNING. ONCE POTENTIAL FOR OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES DIMINISHES AFTER
04Z...WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE LIGHT...LESS THAN 10KT AND FAVOR THE
EAST SOUTHEAST AT ALL TERMINALS.

SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA INCLUDING KIPL...AND KBLH...
OTHER THAN A FEW CLOUDS GENERALLY AOA 10KFT...EXPECT MOSTLY CLEAR
SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS OVERNIGHT THROUGH AT LEAST 18Z SUNDAY
AFTERNOON.

AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDED TAFS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...
MOISTURE RETREAT DUE TO WESTERLY FLOW WILL KEEP STORM CHANCES
MINIMAL THROUGH THURSDAY AND LIMITED TO THE HIGHER MOUNTAINS OF
SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA. MEANWHILE...TEMPERATURES NUDGE UPWARD A FEW
DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. HUMIDITIES ON THE LOWER DESERTS DROP BELOW 15
PERCENT THOUGH MAX HUMIDITIES REMAIN FAIR. NO STRONG WINDS ARE
EXPECTED DURING THIS TIME FRAME. ON FRIDAY...A PACIFIC WEATHER
SYSTEM WILL PULL MOISTURE NORTHWARD OVER THE REGION FOR A RETURN OF
STORM CHANCES INTO NEXT WEEKEND...MAINLY EAST OF THE LOWER COLORADO
RIVER VALLEY. IN ADDITION...COOLER TEMPERATURES AND BREEZY TO
LOCALLY WINDY CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED AS WELL.

&&

.PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

AZ...NONE.

CA...NONE.

&&

$$

VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/PHOENIX

DISCUSSION...DEWEY
AVIATION...MEYERS
FIRE WEATHER...MEYERS/AJ





000
FXUS65 KPSR 202243 AAA
AFDPSR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PHOENIX AZ
340 PM MST SAT SEP 20 2014

.UPDATE...UPDATED AVIATION AND FIRE WEATHER DISCUSSIONS.

&&


.SYNOPSIS...
LINGERING MOISTURE ACROSS THE REGION AND LOW PRESSURE APPROACHING
FROM THE WEST WILL KEEP AT LEAST SLIGHT CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS FOR TODAY. DRIER AIR WILL GRADUALLY FILTER
INTO THE REGION SUNDAY AND MONDAY FOR A DECLINE IN STORM CHANCES.
SLIGHT CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE CONFINED TO THE
HIGHER MOUNTAINS OF SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA DURING THE MIDDLE OF NEXT
WEEK WITH SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES. AN APPROACHING
PACIFIC WEATHER SYSTEM LATE NEXT WEEK WILL LEAD TO AN INCREASE IN
STORM CHANCES.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
MODEL THETA-E GRADIENT ALIGNED WELL WITH THE FAVORABLE LOCATIONS OF
HIGHER MOISTURE CONTENT AND GREATER INSTABILITY. THE RAP MLCAPE
VALUES JUST OVER 1500 J/KG ALONG AN AXIS FROM NOGALES TO BULLHEAD
CITY. WESTERN MARICOPA COUNTY...LA PAZ AND NORTHERN YUMA COUNTIES
LOOK TO BE THE FAVORABLE AREAS FOR CONVECTION THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. CAN NOT RULE OUT ISOLATED STORMS SNEAKING IN TO NORTHERN
PINAL COUNTY FROM SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA...AS THE GREATER TUCSON AREA
HAS BEEN INCREASING IN ACTIVITY LATE THIS MORNING. PRECIPITABLE
WATER VALUES HOVERING AROUND 1.5 INCHES ACROSS THE LOWER DESERTS AND
A VERY BROAD DIFLUENT MID-LAYER STRETCHING NORTH-NORTHWEST THROUGH
THE GREAT BASIN ALLOWS FOR CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. MOISTURE AND DYNAMICS ARE IN PLACE AND THE POTENTIAL ENERGY
IS THERE...NOW THE CHALLENGE WILL BE FOR A TRIGGER TO PUSH THE
DEVELOPMENT NEEDED FOR THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT.

STORM CHANCES WILL BE ON THE DECLINE THROUGH MONDAY BEFORE COMING TO
A QUIET HOLDING PATTERN THROUGH THE WEEK. MONSOON MOISTURE LOOKS TO
HANG AROUND THIS WEEK BUT MAINLY ACROSS EASTERN ARIZONA. THE UPPER
LEVEL DISTURBANCE IS PROGGED TO MOVE NORTH THROUGH THE GREAT BASIN
BY MONDAY AND WILL ALLOW A WESTERLY FLOW TO SETTLE IN PLACE OVER THE
SOUTHWEST DESERTS AS WELL AS A DRYING TREND. WILL KEEP SLIGHT CHANCE
MENTION IN ZONE 24 FOR THE HIGHER TERRAIN LOCATIONS. TEMPERATURES
WILL HAVE LITTLE DAY TO DAY CHANGE...REMAINING AT OR A FEW DEGREES
ABOVE SEASONAL NORMAL WITH HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATING THE REGION
THROUGH MID WEEK.

THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...ATTENTION THEN TURNS TO A POSSIBLE
SEASONAL TRANSITION SYSTEM FOR LATE WEEK INTO NEXT WEEKEND.
CONFIDENCE IS STILL NOT VERY HIGH ON THE SPECIFICS OF THE SYSTEM BUT
THE 00Z OPERATIONAL MODELS HAVE COME IN CLOSER AGREEMENT THAT A DEEP
PACIFIC TROUGH WILL SLIDE THROUGH CALIFORNIA ON FRIDAY AND POSSIBLY
AS FAR SOUTH AS ARIZONA SOMETIME NEXT WEEKEND. WIDESPREAD SLIGHT
CHANCE POPS ARE IN THE FORECAST FOR FRIDAY. EITHER WAY IT IS FAIRLY
LIKELY THIS LOW WILL USER IN COOLER AND MUCH DRIER AIR...AND
POTENTIALLY END OUR MONSOON SEASON.

&&

.AVIATION...
SOUTH-CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ARIZONA INCLUDING KPHX...KIWA...KSDL...
ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL PERSIST THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING OVER SOUTH-CENTRAL AZ...A FEW STORMS COULD
BRIEFLY IMPACT LOW DESERT TERMINALS WITH GUSTY OUTFLOWS UP TO 40
KT...AND REDUCED VISIBILITY DOWN TO 3SM IN BLDU. EXPECT SCT-BKN
CLOUD DECKS AOA 7000FT TO PERSIST OVERNIGHT TIMES INTO SUNDAY
MORNING. ONCE POTENTIAL FOR OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES DIMINISHES AFTER
04Z...WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE LIGHT...LESS THAN 10KT AND FAVOR THE
EAST SOUTHEAST AT ALL TERMINALS.

SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA INCLUDING KIPL...AND KBLH...
OTHER THAN A FEW CLOUDS GENERALLY AOA 10KFT...EXPECT MOSTLY CLEAR
SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS OVERNIGHT THROUGH AT LEAST 18Z SUNDAY
AFTERNOON.

AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDED TAFS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...
MOISTURE RETREAT DUE TO WESTERLY FLOW WILL KEEP STORM CHANCES
MINIMAL THROUGH THURSDAY AND LIMITED TO THE HIGHER MOUNTAINS OF
SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA. MEANWHILE...TEMPERATURES NUDGE UPWARD A FEW
DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. HUMIDITIES ON THE LOWER DESERTS DROP BELOW 15
PERCENT THOUGH MAX HUMIDITIES REMAIN FAIR. NO STRONG WINDS ARE
EXPECTED DURING THIS TIME FRAME. ON FRIDAY...A PACIFIC WEATHER
SYSTEM WILL PULL MOISTURE NORTHWARD OVER THE REGION FOR A RETURN OF
STORM CHANCES INTO NEXT WEEKEND...MAINLY EAST OF THE LOWER COLORADO
RIVER VALLEY. IN ADDITION...COOLER TEMPERATURES AND BREEZY TO
LOCALLY WINDY CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED AS WELL.

&&

.PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

AZ...NONE.

CA...NONE.

&&

$$

VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/PHOENIX

DISCUSSION...DEWEY
AVIATION...MEYERS
FIRE WEATHER...MEYERS/AJ





000
FXUS65 KPSR 202243 AAA
AFDPSR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PHOENIX AZ
340 PM MST SAT SEP 20 2014

.UPDATE...UPDATED AVIATION AND FIRE WEATHER DISCUSSIONS.

&&


.SYNOPSIS...
LINGERING MOISTURE ACROSS THE REGION AND LOW PRESSURE APPROACHING
FROM THE WEST WILL KEEP AT LEAST SLIGHT CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS FOR TODAY. DRIER AIR WILL GRADUALLY FILTER
INTO THE REGION SUNDAY AND MONDAY FOR A DECLINE IN STORM CHANCES.
SLIGHT CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE CONFINED TO THE
HIGHER MOUNTAINS OF SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA DURING THE MIDDLE OF NEXT
WEEK WITH SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES. AN APPROACHING
PACIFIC WEATHER SYSTEM LATE NEXT WEEK WILL LEAD TO AN INCREASE IN
STORM CHANCES.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
MODEL THETA-E GRADIENT ALIGNED WELL WITH THE FAVORABLE LOCATIONS OF
HIGHER MOISTURE CONTENT AND GREATER INSTABILITY. THE RAP MLCAPE
VALUES JUST OVER 1500 J/KG ALONG AN AXIS FROM NOGALES TO BULLHEAD
CITY. WESTERN MARICOPA COUNTY...LA PAZ AND NORTHERN YUMA COUNTIES
LOOK TO BE THE FAVORABLE AREAS FOR CONVECTION THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. CAN NOT RULE OUT ISOLATED STORMS SNEAKING IN TO NORTHERN
PINAL COUNTY FROM SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA...AS THE GREATER TUCSON AREA
HAS BEEN INCREASING IN ACTIVITY LATE THIS MORNING. PRECIPITABLE
WATER VALUES HOVERING AROUND 1.5 INCHES ACROSS THE LOWER DESERTS AND
A VERY BROAD DIFLUENT MID-LAYER STRETCHING NORTH-NORTHWEST THROUGH
THE GREAT BASIN ALLOWS FOR CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. MOISTURE AND DYNAMICS ARE IN PLACE AND THE POTENTIAL ENERGY
IS THERE...NOW THE CHALLENGE WILL BE FOR A TRIGGER TO PUSH THE
DEVELOPMENT NEEDED FOR THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT.

STORM CHANCES WILL BE ON THE DECLINE THROUGH MONDAY BEFORE COMING TO
A QUIET HOLDING PATTERN THROUGH THE WEEK. MONSOON MOISTURE LOOKS TO
HANG AROUND THIS WEEK BUT MAINLY ACROSS EASTERN ARIZONA. THE UPPER
LEVEL DISTURBANCE IS PROGGED TO MOVE NORTH THROUGH THE GREAT BASIN
BY MONDAY AND WILL ALLOW A WESTERLY FLOW TO SETTLE IN PLACE OVER THE
SOUTHWEST DESERTS AS WELL AS A DRYING TREND. WILL KEEP SLIGHT CHANCE
MENTION IN ZONE 24 FOR THE HIGHER TERRAIN LOCATIONS. TEMPERATURES
WILL HAVE LITTLE DAY TO DAY CHANGE...REMAINING AT OR A FEW DEGREES
ABOVE SEASONAL NORMAL WITH HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATING THE REGION
THROUGH MID WEEK.

THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...ATTENTION THEN TURNS TO A POSSIBLE
SEASONAL TRANSITION SYSTEM FOR LATE WEEK INTO NEXT WEEKEND.
CONFIDENCE IS STILL NOT VERY HIGH ON THE SPECIFICS OF THE SYSTEM BUT
THE 00Z OPERATIONAL MODELS HAVE COME IN CLOSER AGREEMENT THAT A DEEP
PACIFIC TROUGH WILL SLIDE THROUGH CALIFORNIA ON FRIDAY AND POSSIBLY
AS FAR SOUTH AS ARIZONA SOMETIME NEXT WEEKEND. WIDESPREAD SLIGHT
CHANCE POPS ARE IN THE FORECAST FOR FRIDAY. EITHER WAY IT IS FAIRLY
LIKELY THIS LOW WILL USER IN COOLER AND MUCH DRIER AIR...AND
POTENTIALLY END OUR MONSOON SEASON.

&&

.AVIATION...
SOUTH-CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ARIZONA INCLUDING KPHX...KIWA...KSDL...
ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL PERSIST THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING OVER SOUTH-CENTRAL AZ...A FEW STORMS COULD
BRIEFLY IMPACT LOW DESERT TERMINALS WITH GUSTY OUTFLOWS UP TO 40
KT...AND REDUCED VISIBILITY DOWN TO 3SM IN BLDU. EXPECT SCT-BKN
CLOUD DECKS AOA 7000FT TO PERSIST OVERNIGHT TIMES INTO SUNDAY
MORNING. ONCE POTENTIAL FOR OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES DIMINISHES AFTER
04Z...WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE LIGHT...LESS THAN 10KT AND FAVOR THE
EAST SOUTHEAST AT ALL TERMINALS.

SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA INCLUDING KIPL...AND KBLH...
OTHER THAN A FEW CLOUDS GENERALLY AOA 10KFT...EXPECT MOSTLY CLEAR
SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS OVERNIGHT THROUGH AT LEAST 18Z SUNDAY
AFTERNOON.

AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDED TAFS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...
MOISTURE RETREAT DUE TO WESTERLY FLOW WILL KEEP STORM CHANCES
MINIMAL THROUGH THURSDAY AND LIMITED TO THE HIGHER MOUNTAINS OF
SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA. MEANWHILE...TEMPERATURES NUDGE UPWARD A FEW
DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. HUMIDITIES ON THE LOWER DESERTS DROP BELOW 15
PERCENT THOUGH MAX HUMIDITIES REMAIN FAIR. NO STRONG WINDS ARE
EXPECTED DURING THIS TIME FRAME. ON FRIDAY...A PACIFIC WEATHER
SYSTEM WILL PULL MOISTURE NORTHWARD OVER THE REGION FOR A RETURN OF
STORM CHANCES INTO NEXT WEEKEND...MAINLY EAST OF THE LOWER COLORADO
RIVER VALLEY. IN ADDITION...COOLER TEMPERATURES AND BREEZY TO
LOCALLY WINDY CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED AS WELL.

&&

.PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

AZ...NONE.

CA...NONE.

&&

$$

VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/PHOENIX

DISCUSSION...DEWEY
AVIATION...MEYERS
FIRE WEATHER...MEYERS/AJ




  [top]

000
FXUS65 KFGZ 202240
AFDFGZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ
340 PM MST SAT SEP 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE FROM SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA INTO
NEVADA BY SUNDAY. THIS SYSTEM WILL INCREASE THE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER NORTHERN ARIZONA INTO SUNDAY. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BUILD OVER THE REGION ON MONDAY WITH MAINLY DRY WEATHER AND
WARMER DAYTIME TEMPERATURES...LASTING THROUGH THURSDAY.
&&

.DISCUSSION...
FOR OVERNIGHT...LOW PRESSURE CENTERED JUST ALONG THE SOUTHERN
CALIFORNIA COAST WILL HEAD TO THE NORTHEAST OVERNIGHT. THE SYSTEM
WILL PROVIDE WEAK SYNOPTIC LIFT AND SOME COOLING ALOFT ALONG WITH
INCREASING VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. EXPECT THAT SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY WILL BE FAIRLY WIDESPREAD FROM THE WESTERN AND EASTERN
MOGOLLON RIM NORTHWEST TO THE KAIBAB PLATEAU. THERE COULD BE THE
POSSIBILITY OF ISOLATED STRONG STORMS OVERNIGHT...MAINLY IN
NORTHWEST AZ.

ON SUNDAY...THE LOW BEGINS TO ACCELERATE NORTHEASTWARD. WEAK UPWARD
SYNOPTIC SCALE LIFT WILL REMAIN OVER ARIZONA...MAIN FROM I-40 NORTH.
THE BEST CONCENTRATION OF STORMS WILL BE NORTH OF I-40 AND ACROSS A
GOOD PART OF NAVAJO AND APACHE COUNTIES. THE FLOW WILL SHIFT TO MORE
SOUTHWESTERLY DIRECTION WITH GRADUAL DRYING THROUGH THE DAY. THERE
IS STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY HOW QUICKLY THE DRYING WILL OCCUR THROUGH
THE DAY...AND THERE CERTAINLY WILL BE SOME UPDATES...TO TRIM PRECIP
CHANCE OVER PORTIONS OF YAVAPAI AND COCONINO COUNTIES IF NEEDED
THROUGH THE DAY.

MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...WARM HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE DESERT
SOUTHWEST WITH A DRIER WESTERLY FLOW. A VERY STABLE AIR MASS
OVERHEAD WILL SHARPLY LIMIT DAYTIME CONVECTION WITH FAIR NIGHTS
EXPECTED.

FRIDAY...MODELS SHOW THAT A STORM SYSTEM FROM THE WEST WILL LIKELY
INTERACT WITH LINGERING MOISTURE OVER ARIZONA FOR A CHANCE OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. AT THIS TIME...TIMING IS THE MAIN
DIFFERENCE BETWEEN THE ENSEMBLE OF MODELS. WE`LL KEEP YOU POSTED.
&&

.AVIATION...
FOR THE 00Z PACKAGE...EXPECT ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TO CONTINUE THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT...MOST NUMEROUS
OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN ALONG AND NORTH OF THE MOGOLLON RIM. STORM
MOTION WILL BE TO THE NORTH AT 10 TO 15 MPH...WITH IFR/MVFR
CONDITIONS IN THE STRONGER STORMS. EXPECT SCT SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ONCE AGAIN SUNDAY AFTERNOON. AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT
UPDATED FOR AMENDMENTS.
&&

.FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC.........TC/MCCOLLUM
AVIATION.......BAK

FOR NORTHERN ARIZONA WEATHER INFORMATION VISIT
WEATHER.GOV/FLAGSTAFF









000
FXUS65 KFGZ 202240
AFDFGZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ
340 PM MST SAT SEP 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE FROM SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA INTO
NEVADA BY SUNDAY. THIS SYSTEM WILL INCREASE THE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER NORTHERN ARIZONA INTO SUNDAY. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BUILD OVER THE REGION ON MONDAY WITH MAINLY DRY WEATHER AND
WARMER DAYTIME TEMPERATURES...LASTING THROUGH THURSDAY.
&&

.DISCUSSION...
FOR OVERNIGHT...LOW PRESSURE CENTERED JUST ALONG THE SOUTHERN
CALIFORNIA COAST WILL HEAD TO THE NORTHEAST OVERNIGHT. THE SYSTEM
WILL PROVIDE WEAK SYNOPTIC LIFT AND SOME COOLING ALOFT ALONG WITH
INCREASING VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. EXPECT THAT SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY WILL BE FAIRLY WIDESPREAD FROM THE WESTERN AND EASTERN
MOGOLLON RIM NORTHWEST TO THE KAIBAB PLATEAU. THERE COULD BE THE
POSSIBILITY OF ISOLATED STRONG STORMS OVERNIGHT...MAINLY IN
NORTHWEST AZ.

ON SUNDAY...THE LOW BEGINS TO ACCELERATE NORTHEASTWARD. WEAK UPWARD
SYNOPTIC SCALE LIFT WILL REMAIN OVER ARIZONA...MAIN FROM I-40 NORTH.
THE BEST CONCENTRATION OF STORMS WILL BE NORTH OF I-40 AND ACROSS A
GOOD PART OF NAVAJO AND APACHE COUNTIES. THE FLOW WILL SHIFT TO MORE
SOUTHWESTERLY DIRECTION WITH GRADUAL DRYING THROUGH THE DAY. THERE
IS STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY HOW QUICKLY THE DRYING WILL OCCUR THROUGH
THE DAY...AND THERE CERTAINLY WILL BE SOME UPDATES...TO TRIM PRECIP
CHANCE OVER PORTIONS OF YAVAPAI AND COCONINO COUNTIES IF NEEDED
THROUGH THE DAY.

MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...WARM HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE DESERT
SOUTHWEST WITH A DRIER WESTERLY FLOW. A VERY STABLE AIR MASS
OVERHEAD WILL SHARPLY LIMIT DAYTIME CONVECTION WITH FAIR NIGHTS
EXPECTED.

FRIDAY...MODELS SHOW THAT A STORM SYSTEM FROM THE WEST WILL LIKELY
INTERACT WITH LINGERING MOISTURE OVER ARIZONA FOR A CHANCE OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. AT THIS TIME...TIMING IS THE MAIN
DIFFERENCE BETWEEN THE ENSEMBLE OF MODELS. WE`LL KEEP YOU POSTED.
&&

.AVIATION...
FOR THE 00Z PACKAGE...EXPECT ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TO CONTINUE THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT...MOST NUMEROUS
OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN ALONG AND NORTH OF THE MOGOLLON RIM. STORM
MOTION WILL BE TO THE NORTH AT 10 TO 15 MPH...WITH IFR/MVFR
CONDITIONS IN THE STRONGER STORMS. EXPECT SCT SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ONCE AGAIN SUNDAY AFTERNOON. AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT
UPDATED FOR AMENDMENTS.
&&

.FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC.........TC/MCCOLLUM
AVIATION.......BAK

FOR NORTHERN ARIZONA WEATHER INFORMATION VISIT
WEATHER.GOV/FLAGSTAFF









  [top]

000
FXUS65 KTWC 202220
AFDTWC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ
320 PM MST SAT SEP 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...EXPECT SCATTERED MAINLY AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH MONDAY. DRIER CONDITIONS WILL THEN LEAD TO
REDUCED COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.
THEREAFTER...THE CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL INCREASE
DURING THE LATTER PART OF THE UPCOMING WEEK. NEAR NORMAL DAYTIME
TEMPERATURES WILL PREVAIL INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...LATEST 500 MB ANALYSIS REVEALS 590 DM HIGH ROUGHLY
OVER SW TEXAS AND A CUTOFF LOW HUGGING THE SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA
COAST. IN BETWEEN THESE TWO SYSTEMS...SOUTHERLY MIDLEVEL FLOW IS
ACTING TO KEEP SOME MONSOONAL MOISTURE IN PLACE ACROSS SOUTHERN
ARIZONA THIS AFTERNOON. THE 12Z KTWC SOUNDING SHOWS A BASICALLY
UNCHANGED PWAT VALUE FROM 12 AND 24 HOURS AGO OF 1.63 INCHES...WHICH
IS A LITTLE LESS THAN 2 SD ABOVE NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. 24-HR
COOLING BETWEEN THE 600 AND 500 MB LAYER OF ABOUT 3C...COMBINED WITH
SFC DEWPOINTS IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S...HAS RESULTED IN DECENT
INSTABILITY WITH SBCAPE VALUES AROUND 1500-2000 J/KG THIS AFTERNOON.

AS A RESULT...SCATTERED SHOWERS/TSTMS HAVE BEEN IMPACTING PORTIONS
OF THE CWA SINCE EARLIER THIS MORNING. GIVEN THE LEVEL OF AVAILABLE
MOISTURE...SOME OF THESE SHOWERS/STORMS HAVE PRODUCED RAINFALL RATES
UP TO 1.5-2 IN/HR. WITH GENERALLY WEAK MIDLEVEL FLOW AND THE BRUNT
OF THE UPPER LEVEL ENERGY FROM THE CUTOFF LOW REMAINING NORTH AND
WEST OF OUR AREA...ANTICIPATE COVERAGE OF CONVECTION TO WANE WITH
LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING THIS EVENING. THIS IDEA IS SUPPORTED BY
VARIOUS HIGH-RES GUIDANCE SUCH AS RECENT UOFA WRF/HRRR/NSSL WRF RUNS.

SUNDAY AND MONDAY...AS THE AFOREMENTIONED UPPER LOW ROTATES INTO THE
NORTHERN GREAT BASIN...SOME DRIER AIR WILL BE DRIVEN INTO THE REGION
ON WESTERLY/SOUTHWESTERLY MIDLEVEL FLOW. WE SHOULD STILL HOLD ON TO
SOME MOISTURE IN OUR EASTERN ZONES...ENOUGH FOR ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED SHOWERS/TSTMS DURING THE AFTERNOON/EVENING HOURS.

TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...12Z GFS/ECMWF BOTH IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT
THE MIDLEVEL HIGH CENTER WILL SHIFT WEST INTO SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA ON
TUESDAY. WITH DRIER AIR IN PLACE...TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY BOTH LOOK
TO BE RELATIVELY QUIET WEATHER DAYS ACROSS THE REGION. AT THIS POINT
IT APPEARS THAT JUST ENOUGH MOISTURE WILL LINGER FOR ISOLATED
SHOWERS/TSTMS MAINLY NEAR THE HIGHER TERRAIN EAST OF TUCSON.

THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...EXPECT RAIN CHANCES TO INCREASE AS A
POWERFUL PACIFIC UPPER TROUGH APPROACHES THE WEST COAST. SOME TIMING
DIFFERENCES BETWEEN THE GFS/ECMWF/CMC RUNS AT THIS POINT...BUT
REGARDLESS...LOOKS LIKE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD BECOME MORE
PROLIFIC AS MOISTURE INCREASES ACROSS THE AREA.

&&

.AVIATION...VALID THRU 22/00Z.
EXPECT SCATTERED -SHRA/-TSRA THIS EVENING...THEN ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED -SHRA NORTH-TO-EAST OF KTUS LATE TONIGHT AND SUNDAY
MORNING. SCATTERED -SHRA/-TSRA WILL THEN OCCUR FROM KTUS VICINITY
EASTWARD AND SOUTHWARD SUNDAY AFTERNOON. MVFR CONDITIONS AND BRIEF
WIND GUSTS TO AROUND 30 KTS WILL OCCUR WITH SHRA/TSRA. OTHERWISE...
SURFACE WIND WILL BE MAINLY LESS THAN 10 KTS THRU SUNDAY AFTERNOON.
AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR TAF AMENDMENTS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...SCATTERED MAINLY AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL OCCUR ESPECIALLY FROM TUCSON EASTWARD AND
SOUTHWARD SUNDAY AND MONDAY. SOMEWHAT DRIER CONDITIONS WILL PRODUCE
LESS COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.
INCREASING CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL THEN PREVAIL
THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY. BRIEF GUSTY OUTFLOWS WILL OCCUR WITH THE
STRONGER THUNDERSTORMS. OTHERWISE...20-FOOT WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE
LESS THAN 15 MPH INTO THE UPCOMING WEEK.

&&

.TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...YOUTUBE...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/TUCSON

DISCUSSION...CARLAW
AVIATION/FIRE WEATHER...FRANCIS





000
FXUS65 KTWC 202220
AFDTWC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ
320 PM MST SAT SEP 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...EXPECT SCATTERED MAINLY AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH MONDAY. DRIER CONDITIONS WILL THEN LEAD TO
REDUCED COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.
THEREAFTER...THE CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL INCREASE
DURING THE LATTER PART OF THE UPCOMING WEEK. NEAR NORMAL DAYTIME
TEMPERATURES WILL PREVAIL INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...LATEST 500 MB ANALYSIS REVEALS 590 DM HIGH ROUGHLY
OVER SW TEXAS AND A CUTOFF LOW HUGGING THE SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA
COAST. IN BETWEEN THESE TWO SYSTEMS...SOUTHERLY MIDLEVEL FLOW IS
ACTING TO KEEP SOME MONSOONAL MOISTURE IN PLACE ACROSS SOUTHERN
ARIZONA THIS AFTERNOON. THE 12Z KTWC SOUNDING SHOWS A BASICALLY
UNCHANGED PWAT VALUE FROM 12 AND 24 HOURS AGO OF 1.63 INCHES...WHICH
IS A LITTLE LESS THAN 2 SD ABOVE NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. 24-HR
COOLING BETWEEN THE 600 AND 500 MB LAYER OF ABOUT 3C...COMBINED WITH
SFC DEWPOINTS IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S...HAS RESULTED IN DECENT
INSTABILITY WITH SBCAPE VALUES AROUND 1500-2000 J/KG THIS AFTERNOON.

AS A RESULT...SCATTERED SHOWERS/TSTMS HAVE BEEN IMPACTING PORTIONS
OF THE CWA SINCE EARLIER THIS MORNING. GIVEN THE LEVEL OF AVAILABLE
MOISTURE...SOME OF THESE SHOWERS/STORMS HAVE PRODUCED RAINFALL RATES
UP TO 1.5-2 IN/HR. WITH GENERALLY WEAK MIDLEVEL FLOW AND THE BRUNT
OF THE UPPER LEVEL ENERGY FROM THE CUTOFF LOW REMAINING NORTH AND
WEST OF OUR AREA...ANTICIPATE COVERAGE OF CONVECTION TO WANE WITH
LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING THIS EVENING. THIS IDEA IS SUPPORTED BY
VARIOUS HIGH-RES GUIDANCE SUCH AS RECENT UOFA WRF/HRRR/NSSL WRF RUNS.

SUNDAY AND MONDAY...AS THE AFOREMENTIONED UPPER LOW ROTATES INTO THE
NORTHERN GREAT BASIN...SOME DRIER AIR WILL BE DRIVEN INTO THE REGION
ON WESTERLY/SOUTHWESTERLY MIDLEVEL FLOW. WE SHOULD STILL HOLD ON TO
SOME MOISTURE IN OUR EASTERN ZONES...ENOUGH FOR ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED SHOWERS/TSTMS DURING THE AFTERNOON/EVENING HOURS.

TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...12Z GFS/ECMWF BOTH IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT
THE MIDLEVEL HIGH CENTER WILL SHIFT WEST INTO SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA ON
TUESDAY. WITH DRIER AIR IN PLACE...TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY BOTH LOOK
TO BE RELATIVELY QUIET WEATHER DAYS ACROSS THE REGION. AT THIS POINT
IT APPEARS THAT JUST ENOUGH MOISTURE WILL LINGER FOR ISOLATED
SHOWERS/TSTMS MAINLY NEAR THE HIGHER TERRAIN EAST OF TUCSON.

THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...EXPECT RAIN CHANCES TO INCREASE AS A
POWERFUL PACIFIC UPPER TROUGH APPROACHES THE WEST COAST. SOME TIMING
DIFFERENCES BETWEEN THE GFS/ECMWF/CMC RUNS AT THIS POINT...BUT
REGARDLESS...LOOKS LIKE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD BECOME MORE
PROLIFIC AS MOISTURE INCREASES ACROSS THE AREA.

&&

.AVIATION...VALID THRU 22/00Z.
EXPECT SCATTERED -SHRA/-TSRA THIS EVENING...THEN ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED -SHRA NORTH-TO-EAST OF KTUS LATE TONIGHT AND SUNDAY
MORNING. SCATTERED -SHRA/-TSRA WILL THEN OCCUR FROM KTUS VICINITY
EASTWARD AND SOUTHWARD SUNDAY AFTERNOON. MVFR CONDITIONS AND BRIEF
WIND GUSTS TO AROUND 30 KTS WILL OCCUR WITH SHRA/TSRA. OTHERWISE...
SURFACE WIND WILL BE MAINLY LESS THAN 10 KTS THRU SUNDAY AFTERNOON.
AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR TAF AMENDMENTS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...SCATTERED MAINLY AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL OCCUR ESPECIALLY FROM TUCSON EASTWARD AND
SOUTHWARD SUNDAY AND MONDAY. SOMEWHAT DRIER CONDITIONS WILL PRODUCE
LESS COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.
INCREASING CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL THEN PREVAIL
THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY. BRIEF GUSTY OUTFLOWS WILL OCCUR WITH THE
STRONGER THUNDERSTORMS. OTHERWISE...20-FOOT WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE
LESS THAN 15 MPH INTO THE UPCOMING WEEK.

&&

.TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...YOUTUBE...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/TUCSON

DISCUSSION...CARLAW
AVIATION/FIRE WEATHER...FRANCIS






000
FXUS65 KPSR 202104
AFDPSR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PHOENIX AZ
205 PM MST SAT SEP 20 2014


.SYNOPSIS...
LINGERING MOISTURE ACROSS THE REGION AND LOW PRESSURE APPROACHING
FROM THE WEST WILL KEEP AT LEAST SLIGHT CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS FOR TODAY. DRIER AIR WILL GRADUALLY FILTER
INTO THE REGION SUNDAY AND MONDAY FOR A DECLINE IN STORM CHANCES.
SLIGHT CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE CONFINED TO THE
HIGHER MOUNTAINS OF SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA DURING THE MIDDLE OF NEXT
WEEK WITH SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES. AN APPROACHING
PACIFIC WEATHER SYSTEM LATE NEXT WEEK WILL LEAD TO AN INCREASE IN
STORM CHANCES.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
MODEL THETA-E GRADIENT ALIGNED WELL WITH THE FAVORABLE LOCATIONS OF
HIGHER MOISTURE CONTENT AND GREATER INSTABILITY. THE RAP MLCAPE
VALUES JUST OVER 1500 J/KG ALONG AN AXIS FROM NOGALES TO BULLHEAD
CITY. WESTERN MARICOPA COUNTY...LA PAZ AND NORTHERN YUMA COUNTIES
LOOK TO BE THE FAVORABLE AREAS FOR CONVECTION THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. CAN NOT RULE OUT ISOLATED STORMS SNEAKING IN TO NORTHERN
PINAL COUNTY FROM SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA...AS THE GREATER TUCSON AREA
HAS BEEN INCREASING IN ACTIVITY LATE THIS MORNING. PRECIPITABLE
WATER VALUES HOVERING AROUND 1.5 INCHES ACROSS THE LOWER DESERTS AND
A VERY BROAD DIFLUENT MID-LAYER STRETCHING NORTH-NORTHWEST THROUGH
THE GREAT BASIN ALLOWS FOR CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. MOISTURE AND DYNAMICS ARE IN PLACE AND THE POTENTIAL ENERGY
IS THERE...NOW THE CHALLENGE WILL BE FOR A TRIGGER TO PUSH THE
DEVELOPMENT NEEDED FOR THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT.

STORM CHANCES WILL BE ON THE DECLINE THROUGH MONDAY BEFORE COMING TO
A QUIET HOLDING PATTERN THROUGH THE WEEK. MONSOON MOISTURE LOOKS TO
HANG AROUND THIS WEEK BUT MAINLY ACROSS EASTERN ARIZONA. THE UPPER
LEVEL DISTURBANCE IS PROGGED TO MOVE NORTH THROUGH THE GREAT BASIN
BY MONDAY AND WILL ALLOW A WESTERLY FLOW TO SETTLE IN PLACE OVER THE
SOUTHWEST DESERTS AS WELL AS A DRYING TREND. WILL KEEP SLIGHT CHANCE
MENTION IN ZONE 24 FOR THE HIGHER TERRAIN LOCATIONS. TEMPERATURES
WILL HAVE LITTLE DAY TO DAY CHANGE...REMAINING AT OR A FEW DEGREES
ABOVE SEASONAL NORMAL WITH HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATING THE REGION
THROUGH MID WEEK.

THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...ATTENTION THEN TURNS TO A POSSIBLE
SEASONAL TRANSITION SYSTEM FOR LATE WEEK INTO NEXT WEEKEND.
CONFIDENCE IS STILL NOT VERY HIGH ON THE SPECIFICS OF THE SYSTEM BUT
THE 00Z OPERATIONAL MODELS HAVE COME IN CLOSER AGREEMENT THAT A DEEP
PACIFIC TROUGH WILL SLIDE THROUGH CALIFORNIA ON FRIDAY AND POSSIBLY
AS FAR SOUTH AS ARIZONA SOMETIME NEXT WEEKEND. WIDESPREAD SLIGHT
CHANCE POPS ARE IN THE FORECAST FOR FRIDAY. EITHER WAY IT IS FAIRLY
LIKELY THIS LOW WILL USER IN COOLER AND MUCH DRIER AIR...AND
POTENTIALLY END OUR MONSOON SEASON.

&&

.AVIATION...
SOUTH-CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ARIZONA AND SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA
INCLUDING KPHX...KIWA...KSDL...KIPL...AND KBLH...

AN UPPER LOW CENTERED OFF THE COAST OF SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA WILL PULL
MONSOON MOISTURE NORTHWARD TODAY FOR SCT-BKN080-100 WITH SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN NORTH...EAST...AND
SOUTH...OF THE PHOENIX AREA AND ISOLATED ELSEWHERE. ONSET OF SHOWERS
POSSIBLE BEFORE 18Z. CONFIDENCE TOO LOW AN ANY GIVEN TAF SITE TO
INSERT TEMPO SHWRS/TSTMS.

AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDED TAFS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...
MOISTURE RETREAT DUE TO WESTERLY FLOW WILL KEEP STORM CHANCES
MINIMAL THROUGH THURSDAY AND LIMITED TO THE HIGHER MOUNTAINS OF
SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA. MEANWHILE...TEMPERATURES NUDGE UPWARD A FEW
DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. HUMIDITIES ON THE LOWER DESERTS DROP BELOW 15
PERCENT THOUGH MAX HUMIDITIES REMAIN FAIR. NO STRONG WINDS ARE
EXPECTED DURING THIS TIME FRAME. ON FRIDAY...A PACIFIC WEATHER
SYSTEM WILL PULL MOISTURE NORTHWARD OVER THE REGION FOR A RETURN OF
STORM CHANCES...MAINLY EAST OF THE LOWER COLORADO RIVER VALLEY. IN
ADDITION...COOLER TEMPERATURES AND BREEZY TO LOCALLY WINDY
CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED AS WELL.

&&

.PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

AZ...NONE.

CA...NONE.

&&

$$

VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/PHOENIX

DISCUSSION...DEWEY
AVIATION...AJ
FIRE WEATHER...AJ











000
FXUS65 KPSR 202104
AFDPSR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PHOENIX AZ
205 PM MST SAT SEP 20 2014


.SYNOPSIS...
LINGERING MOISTURE ACROSS THE REGION AND LOW PRESSURE APPROACHING
FROM THE WEST WILL KEEP AT LEAST SLIGHT CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS FOR TODAY. DRIER AIR WILL GRADUALLY FILTER
INTO THE REGION SUNDAY AND MONDAY FOR A DECLINE IN STORM CHANCES.
SLIGHT CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE CONFINED TO THE
HIGHER MOUNTAINS OF SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA DURING THE MIDDLE OF NEXT
WEEK WITH SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES. AN APPROACHING
PACIFIC WEATHER SYSTEM LATE NEXT WEEK WILL LEAD TO AN INCREASE IN
STORM CHANCES.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
MODEL THETA-E GRADIENT ALIGNED WELL WITH THE FAVORABLE LOCATIONS OF
HIGHER MOISTURE CONTENT AND GREATER INSTABILITY. THE RAP MLCAPE
VALUES JUST OVER 1500 J/KG ALONG AN AXIS FROM NOGALES TO BULLHEAD
CITY. WESTERN MARICOPA COUNTY...LA PAZ AND NORTHERN YUMA COUNTIES
LOOK TO BE THE FAVORABLE AREAS FOR CONVECTION THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. CAN NOT RULE OUT ISOLATED STORMS SNEAKING IN TO NORTHERN
PINAL COUNTY FROM SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA...AS THE GREATER TUCSON AREA
HAS BEEN INCREASING IN ACTIVITY LATE THIS MORNING. PRECIPITABLE
WATER VALUES HOVERING AROUND 1.5 INCHES ACROSS THE LOWER DESERTS AND
A VERY BROAD DIFLUENT MID-LAYER STRETCHING NORTH-NORTHWEST THROUGH
THE GREAT BASIN ALLOWS FOR CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. MOISTURE AND DYNAMICS ARE IN PLACE AND THE POTENTIAL ENERGY
IS THERE...NOW THE CHALLENGE WILL BE FOR A TRIGGER TO PUSH THE
DEVELOPMENT NEEDED FOR THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT.

STORM CHANCES WILL BE ON THE DECLINE THROUGH MONDAY BEFORE COMING TO
A QUIET HOLDING PATTERN THROUGH THE WEEK. MONSOON MOISTURE LOOKS TO
HANG AROUND THIS WEEK BUT MAINLY ACROSS EASTERN ARIZONA. THE UPPER
LEVEL DISTURBANCE IS PROGGED TO MOVE NORTH THROUGH THE GREAT BASIN
BY MONDAY AND WILL ALLOW A WESTERLY FLOW TO SETTLE IN PLACE OVER THE
SOUTHWEST DESERTS AS WELL AS A DRYING TREND. WILL KEEP SLIGHT CHANCE
MENTION IN ZONE 24 FOR THE HIGHER TERRAIN LOCATIONS. TEMPERATURES
WILL HAVE LITTLE DAY TO DAY CHANGE...REMAINING AT OR A FEW DEGREES
ABOVE SEASONAL NORMAL WITH HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATING THE REGION
THROUGH MID WEEK.

THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...ATTENTION THEN TURNS TO A POSSIBLE
SEASONAL TRANSITION SYSTEM FOR LATE WEEK INTO NEXT WEEKEND.
CONFIDENCE IS STILL NOT VERY HIGH ON THE SPECIFICS OF THE SYSTEM BUT
THE 00Z OPERATIONAL MODELS HAVE COME IN CLOSER AGREEMENT THAT A DEEP
PACIFIC TROUGH WILL SLIDE THROUGH CALIFORNIA ON FRIDAY AND POSSIBLY
AS FAR SOUTH AS ARIZONA SOMETIME NEXT WEEKEND. WIDESPREAD SLIGHT
CHANCE POPS ARE IN THE FORECAST FOR FRIDAY. EITHER WAY IT IS FAIRLY
LIKELY THIS LOW WILL USER IN COOLER AND MUCH DRIER AIR...AND
POTENTIALLY END OUR MONSOON SEASON.

&&

.AVIATION...
SOUTH-CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ARIZONA AND SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA
INCLUDING KPHX...KIWA...KSDL...KIPL...AND KBLH...

AN UPPER LOW CENTERED OFF THE COAST OF SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA WILL PULL
MONSOON MOISTURE NORTHWARD TODAY FOR SCT-BKN080-100 WITH SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN NORTH...EAST...AND
SOUTH...OF THE PHOENIX AREA AND ISOLATED ELSEWHERE. ONSET OF SHOWERS
POSSIBLE BEFORE 18Z. CONFIDENCE TOO LOW AN ANY GIVEN TAF SITE TO
INSERT TEMPO SHWRS/TSTMS.

AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDED TAFS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...
MOISTURE RETREAT DUE TO WESTERLY FLOW WILL KEEP STORM CHANCES
MINIMAL THROUGH THURSDAY AND LIMITED TO THE HIGHER MOUNTAINS OF
SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA. MEANWHILE...TEMPERATURES NUDGE UPWARD A FEW
DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. HUMIDITIES ON THE LOWER DESERTS DROP BELOW 15
PERCENT THOUGH MAX HUMIDITIES REMAIN FAIR. NO STRONG WINDS ARE
EXPECTED DURING THIS TIME FRAME. ON FRIDAY...A PACIFIC WEATHER
SYSTEM WILL PULL MOISTURE NORTHWARD OVER THE REGION FOR A RETURN OF
STORM CHANCES...MAINLY EAST OF THE LOWER COLORADO RIVER VALLEY. IN
ADDITION...COOLER TEMPERATURES AND BREEZY TO LOCALLY WINDY
CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED AS WELL.

&&

.PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

AZ...NONE.

CA...NONE.

&&

$$

VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/PHOENIX

DISCUSSION...DEWEY
AVIATION...AJ
FIRE WEATHER...AJ










000
FXUS65 KTWC 201628
AFDTWC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ
925 AM MST SAT SEP 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...EXPECT SCATTERED MAINLY AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH MONDAY. DRIER CONDITIONS WILL THEN LEAD TO
REDUCED COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.
THEREAFTER...THE CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL INCREASE
DURING THE LATTER PART OF THE UPCOMING WEEK. NEAR NORMAL DAYTIME
TEMPERATURES WILL PREVAIL INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.


&&

.DISCUSSION...KEMX WSR-88D DETECTED SCATTERED 30-55 DBZ ECHOES FROM
NEAR GREEN VALLEY SWD ACROSS MUCH OF SANTA CRUZ COUNTY AND FAR SWRN
COCHISE COUNTY AT 1605Z. THE REST OF SE AZ WAS VOID OF PRECIP ECHOES
AT THIS TIME. IR/VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTED THE AFOREMENTIONED
CONVECTIVE COMPLEX NICELY. DEWPOINTS AT LOWER ELEVATIONS VALID 16Z
WERE GENERALLY IN THE 60S F...AND THESE TEMPS WERE NEARLY IDENTICAL
TO 24 HOURS AGO. SURFACE TEMPS VALID 16Z WERE GENERALLY 3-6 DEGS F
WARMER VERSUS THIS TIME FRI.

20/12Z KTWC SOUNDING PRECIP WATER WAS 1.63 INCHES...SIMILAR TO 24
HOURS AGO. A FAIRLY UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT EXISTED WITH LIFTED INDEX
OF MINUS 6...AND UNMODIFIED SBCAPE OF 2981 J/KG. 20/12Z UPPER AIR
PLOTS INDICATED UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS EXTENDED FROM WEST TEXAS NWWD
INTO UTAH...AND A WEAK UPPER LOW WAS CENTERED JUST OFF OF THE SRN
CALIFORNIA COAST. LIGHT SLY TO ELY MID-LEVEL FLOW PREVAILED ACROSS
SE AZ...WITH LIGHT TO MODERATE SWLY FLOW ABOVE 400 MB.

THE WEAK UPPER LOW IS PROGGED TO MOVE NEWD INTO CENTRAL CALIFORNIA
BY EARLY SUN MORNING. 20/12Z NAM/GFS AND 20/00Z ECMWF WERE SIMILAR
WITH DEPICTING A NEGATIVE-TILTED TROUGH AXIS TO MOVE NWD ACROSS SE
AZ INTO THIS EVENING. THIS FEATURE IN COMBINATION WITH AMPLE
MOISTURE AND AN UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT WILL PRODUCE SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND TSTMS THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL
ASSOCIATED WITH THE STRONGER SHOWERS/TSTMS MAY PRODUCE SOME FLOODING
ISSUES. THE MID-LEVEL TROUGH AXIS IS PROGGED TO BE NORTH OF THE AREA
BY SUN MORNING. THERE WILL BE ENOUGH MOISTURE TO MAINTAIN A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF SHOWERS/TSTMS ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA LATE TONIGHT. HIGH
TEMPS THIS AFTERNOON FROM TUCSON NWD WILL BE NEARLY IDENTICAL TO
TEMPS ACHIEVED FRI...BUT WILL BE ABOUT 2-5 DEGS F WARMER FOR LOCALES
SOUTH OF TUCSON.

PLEASE REFER TO THE ADDITIONAL SECTIONS FOR FURTHER DETAIL.

&&

.AVIATION...VALID THRU 21/18Z.
SCATTERED -SHRA/-TSRA MAINLY SOUTH OF KTUS AND IN THE VICINITY OF
THE KOLS TERMINAL THIS MORNING WILL BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD ACROSS SE
AZ THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING. MVFR CONDITIONS AND BRIEF WIND
GUSTS TO AROUND 30 KTS WILL OCCUR WITH SHRA/TSRA. ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED -SHRA/-TSRA IS ON TAP MAINLY FROM KTUS EASTWARD TO THE NEW
MEXICO BORDER LATE TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING. OTHERWISE...CLOUD
DECKS INTO SUNDAY MORNING WILL GENERALLY BE AT 5-10K FT AGL...AND
SURFACE WIND WILL BE MAINLY LESS THAN 10 KTS. AVIATION DISCUSSION
NOT UPDATED FOR TAF AMENDMENTS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...SCATTERED MAINLY AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL OCCUR ESPECIALLY FROM TUCSON EASTWARD AND
SOUTHWARD THROUGH MONDAY. SOMEWHAT DRIER CONDITIONS WILL THEN
PRODUCE LESS COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY. INCREASING CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL
PREVAIL THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. BRIEF GUSTY OUTFLOWS WILL OCCUR
WITH THE STRONGER THUNDERSTORMS. OTHERWISE...20-FOOT WINDS WILL
GENERALLY BE LESS THAN 15 MPH INTO THE UPCOMING WEEK.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...DRIER AIR PUSHES IN FROM THE WEST...ESPECIALLY
OVER THE WESTERN ZONES...ON SUNDAY AS THE UPPER LOW MOVES INTO
CENTRAL NEVADA. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED STORMS...SOME OF WHICH WILL BE
HEAVY RAINERS.

BY MONDAY THE UPPER LOW WILL BE IN WYOMING WITH WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT
OVER THE AREA. STILL HANGING ON TO MODEST PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES
FOR ISOLATED TO LOW SCATTERED COVERAGE OF STORMS.

AS UPPER HIGH BUILDS OVER THE STATE TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY LIMITING
ANY STORMS TO THE HIGHER TERRAIN EAST AND SOUTH OF TUCSON.

A SMALL UPTICK IN AREAL COVERAGE OF STORMS THURSDAY AS MOISTURE
INCREASES A BIT AS A STRONG PACIFIC UPPER TROF APPROACHES THE WEST
COAST.

THIS UPPER TROF WILL PUSH INLAND ON FRIDAY...BRINGING A BETTER
CHANCE OF STORMS...SOME OF WHICH COULD BE SEVERE...ESPECIALLY ACROSS
NORTHERN PARTS OF THE FORECAST AREA.

HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE GRADUALLY WARMING TO ABOVE NORMAL LEVELS
THIS WEEKEND AND HOLD THERE UNTIL THE END OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...YOUTUBE...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/TUCSON





000
FXUS65 KTWC 201628
AFDTWC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ
925 AM MST SAT SEP 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...EXPECT SCATTERED MAINLY AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH MONDAY. DRIER CONDITIONS WILL THEN LEAD TO
REDUCED COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.
THEREAFTER...THE CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL INCREASE
DURING THE LATTER PART OF THE UPCOMING WEEK. NEAR NORMAL DAYTIME
TEMPERATURES WILL PREVAIL INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.


&&

.DISCUSSION...KEMX WSR-88D DETECTED SCATTERED 30-55 DBZ ECHOES FROM
NEAR GREEN VALLEY SWD ACROSS MUCH OF SANTA CRUZ COUNTY AND FAR SWRN
COCHISE COUNTY AT 1605Z. THE REST OF SE AZ WAS VOID OF PRECIP ECHOES
AT THIS TIME. IR/VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTED THE AFOREMENTIONED
CONVECTIVE COMPLEX NICELY. DEWPOINTS AT LOWER ELEVATIONS VALID 16Z
WERE GENERALLY IN THE 60S F...AND THESE TEMPS WERE NEARLY IDENTICAL
TO 24 HOURS AGO. SURFACE TEMPS VALID 16Z WERE GENERALLY 3-6 DEGS F
WARMER VERSUS THIS TIME FRI.

20/12Z KTWC SOUNDING PRECIP WATER WAS 1.63 INCHES...SIMILAR TO 24
HOURS AGO. A FAIRLY UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT EXISTED WITH LIFTED INDEX
OF MINUS 6...AND UNMODIFIED SBCAPE OF 2981 J/KG. 20/12Z UPPER AIR
PLOTS INDICATED UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS EXTENDED FROM WEST TEXAS NWWD
INTO UTAH...AND A WEAK UPPER LOW WAS CENTERED JUST OFF OF THE SRN
CALIFORNIA COAST. LIGHT SLY TO ELY MID-LEVEL FLOW PREVAILED ACROSS
SE AZ...WITH LIGHT TO MODERATE SWLY FLOW ABOVE 400 MB.

THE WEAK UPPER LOW IS PROGGED TO MOVE NEWD INTO CENTRAL CALIFORNIA
BY EARLY SUN MORNING. 20/12Z NAM/GFS AND 20/00Z ECMWF WERE SIMILAR
WITH DEPICTING A NEGATIVE-TILTED TROUGH AXIS TO MOVE NWD ACROSS SE
AZ INTO THIS EVENING. THIS FEATURE IN COMBINATION WITH AMPLE
MOISTURE AND AN UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT WILL PRODUCE SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND TSTMS THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL
ASSOCIATED WITH THE STRONGER SHOWERS/TSTMS MAY PRODUCE SOME FLOODING
ISSUES. THE MID-LEVEL TROUGH AXIS IS PROGGED TO BE NORTH OF THE AREA
BY SUN MORNING. THERE WILL BE ENOUGH MOISTURE TO MAINTAIN A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF SHOWERS/TSTMS ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA LATE TONIGHT. HIGH
TEMPS THIS AFTERNOON FROM TUCSON NWD WILL BE NEARLY IDENTICAL TO
TEMPS ACHIEVED FRI...BUT WILL BE ABOUT 2-5 DEGS F WARMER FOR LOCALES
SOUTH OF TUCSON.

PLEASE REFER TO THE ADDITIONAL SECTIONS FOR FURTHER DETAIL.

&&

.AVIATION...VALID THRU 21/18Z.
SCATTERED -SHRA/-TSRA MAINLY SOUTH OF KTUS AND IN THE VICINITY OF
THE KOLS TERMINAL THIS MORNING WILL BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD ACROSS SE
AZ THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING. MVFR CONDITIONS AND BRIEF WIND
GUSTS TO AROUND 30 KTS WILL OCCUR WITH SHRA/TSRA. ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED -SHRA/-TSRA IS ON TAP MAINLY FROM KTUS EASTWARD TO THE NEW
MEXICO BORDER LATE TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING. OTHERWISE...CLOUD
DECKS INTO SUNDAY MORNING WILL GENERALLY BE AT 5-10K FT AGL...AND
SURFACE WIND WILL BE MAINLY LESS THAN 10 KTS. AVIATION DISCUSSION
NOT UPDATED FOR TAF AMENDMENTS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...SCATTERED MAINLY AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL OCCUR ESPECIALLY FROM TUCSON EASTWARD AND
SOUTHWARD THROUGH MONDAY. SOMEWHAT DRIER CONDITIONS WILL THEN
PRODUCE LESS COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY. INCREASING CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL
PREVAIL THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. BRIEF GUSTY OUTFLOWS WILL OCCUR
WITH THE STRONGER THUNDERSTORMS. OTHERWISE...20-FOOT WINDS WILL
GENERALLY BE LESS THAN 15 MPH INTO THE UPCOMING WEEK.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...DRIER AIR PUSHES IN FROM THE WEST...ESPECIALLY
OVER THE WESTERN ZONES...ON SUNDAY AS THE UPPER LOW MOVES INTO
CENTRAL NEVADA. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED STORMS...SOME OF WHICH WILL BE
HEAVY RAINERS.

BY MONDAY THE UPPER LOW WILL BE IN WYOMING WITH WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT
OVER THE AREA. STILL HANGING ON TO MODEST PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES
FOR ISOLATED TO LOW SCATTERED COVERAGE OF STORMS.

AS UPPER HIGH BUILDS OVER THE STATE TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY LIMITING
ANY STORMS TO THE HIGHER TERRAIN EAST AND SOUTH OF TUCSON.

A SMALL UPTICK IN AREAL COVERAGE OF STORMS THURSDAY AS MOISTURE
INCREASES A BIT AS A STRONG PACIFIC UPPER TROF APPROACHES THE WEST
COAST.

THIS UPPER TROF WILL PUSH INLAND ON FRIDAY...BRINGING A BETTER
CHANCE OF STORMS...SOME OF WHICH COULD BE SEVERE...ESPECIALLY ACROSS
NORTHERN PARTS OF THE FORECAST AREA.

HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE GRADUALLY WARMING TO ABOVE NORMAL LEVELS
THIS WEEKEND AND HOLD THERE UNTIL THE END OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...YOUTUBE...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/TUCSON






000
FXUS65 KFGZ 201559
AFDFGZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ
855 AM MST SAT SEP 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE FROM SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA INTO
NEVADA THIS WEEKEND. THIS FEATURE WILL INCREASE THE CHANCE FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER NORTHERN ARIZONA TODAY INTO SUNDAY.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE REGION ON MONDAY WITH MAINLY DRY
WEATHER AND WARMER DAYTIME TEMPERATURES...LASTING THROUGH THURSDAY.
&&

.DISCUSSION...FORECAST FOR TODAY PERIOD OVERALL LOOKS GOOD WITH
THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING BETWEEN 11AM-1PM ACROSS NORTHERN ARIZONA.
BASED ON THE LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE SOME MINOR UPDATES WERE MADE TO
THE PROBABILITY OF PRECIPITATION GRIDS...VALUES WERE INCREASED FOR
THE UPPER ELEVATION ESPECIALLY FOR THE COCONINO PLATEAU
&&

.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION /230 PM MST/...
FOR TODAY...LOW PRESSURE CENTERED JUST OFF THE SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA
COAST DURING THE MORNING HOURS WILL HEAD TO THE NORTHEAST. THE MAIN
EFFECT OVER ARIZONA WILL BE WEAK UPWARD MOTION AND SOME COOLING
ALOFT ALONG WITH STRENGTHENING VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. EXPECT THAT
SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL BE FAIRLY WIDESPREAD TODAY AND
TONIGHT. COOLING ALOFT WILL COMBINE WITH MOISTURE AND ENHANCED
VERTICAL SHEAR FOR A FEW STRONGER STORMS. AT THIS TIME IT LOOKS LIKE
THE MAIN THREAT WILL ISOLATED STORMS WITH DIME TO QUARTER SIZE
HAIL.

ON SUNDAY...THE LOW BEGINS TO ACCELERATE NORTHEASTWARD. WEAK UPWARD
LIFT WILL REMAIN OVER ARIZONA. THE FLOW WILL SHIFT TO MORE
SOUTHWESTERLY WITH GRADUAL DRYING THROUGH THE DAY. SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS CENTRAL AND NORTHERN
ARIZONA...ISOLATED SOUTH OF THE MOGOLLON...SCATTERED ACROSS THE
ARIZONA/UTAH BORDER AND NORTHEAST PORTION OF THE STATE.

MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...WARM HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE DESERT
SOUTHWEST WITH A DRIER WESTERLY FLOW. A VERY STABLE AIR MASS
OVERHEAD WILL SHARPLY LIMIT DAYTIME CONVECTION WITH FAIR NIGHTS
EXPECTED.

FRIDAY...MODELS SHOW THAT A STORM SYSTEM FROM THE WEST WILL LIKELY
INTERACT WITH LINGERING MOISTURE OVER ARIZONA FOR A CHANCE OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. AT THIS TIME...TIMING IS THE MAIN
DIFFERENCE BETWEEN THE ENSEMBLE OF MODELS. WE`LL KEEP YOU POSTED.

&&

.AVIATION...
FOR THE 18Z PACKAGE...EXPECT SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO
INCREASE IN COVERAGE TODAY...MOST NUMEROUS ALONG AND NORTH OF THE
MOGOLLON RIM. STORM MOTION WILL BE TO THE NORTH AT 10 TO 15 MPH...
WITH IFR/MVFR CONDITIONS IN THE STRONGER STORMS. SCT SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AND
THROUGH THE MORNING ON SUNDAY. AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR
AMENDMENTS.
&&

.FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC.........TC/MCCOLLUM
AVIATION.......BAK

FOR NORTHERN ARIZONA WEATHER INFORMATION VISIT
WEATHER.GOV/FLAGSTAFF








000
FXUS65 KFGZ 201559
AFDFGZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ
855 AM MST SAT SEP 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE FROM SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA INTO
NEVADA THIS WEEKEND. THIS FEATURE WILL INCREASE THE CHANCE FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER NORTHERN ARIZONA TODAY INTO SUNDAY.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE REGION ON MONDAY WITH MAINLY DRY
WEATHER AND WARMER DAYTIME TEMPERATURES...LASTING THROUGH THURSDAY.
&&

.DISCUSSION...FORECAST FOR TODAY PERIOD OVERALL LOOKS GOOD WITH
THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING BETWEEN 11AM-1PM ACROSS NORTHERN ARIZONA.
BASED ON THE LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE SOME MINOR UPDATES WERE MADE TO
THE PROBABILITY OF PRECIPITATION GRIDS...VALUES WERE INCREASED FOR
THE UPPER ELEVATION ESPECIALLY FOR THE COCONINO PLATEAU
&&

.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION /230 PM MST/...
FOR TODAY...LOW PRESSURE CENTERED JUST OFF THE SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA
COAST DURING THE MORNING HOURS WILL HEAD TO THE NORTHEAST. THE MAIN
EFFECT OVER ARIZONA WILL BE WEAK UPWARD MOTION AND SOME COOLING
ALOFT ALONG WITH STRENGTHENING VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. EXPECT THAT
SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL BE FAIRLY WIDESPREAD TODAY AND
TONIGHT. COOLING ALOFT WILL COMBINE WITH MOISTURE AND ENHANCED
VERTICAL SHEAR FOR A FEW STRONGER STORMS. AT THIS TIME IT LOOKS LIKE
THE MAIN THREAT WILL ISOLATED STORMS WITH DIME TO QUARTER SIZE
HAIL.

ON SUNDAY...THE LOW BEGINS TO ACCELERATE NORTHEASTWARD. WEAK UPWARD
LIFT WILL REMAIN OVER ARIZONA. THE FLOW WILL SHIFT TO MORE
SOUTHWESTERLY WITH GRADUAL DRYING THROUGH THE DAY. SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS CENTRAL AND NORTHERN
ARIZONA...ISOLATED SOUTH OF THE MOGOLLON...SCATTERED ACROSS THE
ARIZONA/UTAH BORDER AND NORTHEAST PORTION OF THE STATE.

MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...WARM HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE DESERT
SOUTHWEST WITH A DRIER WESTERLY FLOW. A VERY STABLE AIR MASS
OVERHEAD WILL SHARPLY LIMIT DAYTIME CONVECTION WITH FAIR NIGHTS
EXPECTED.

FRIDAY...MODELS SHOW THAT A STORM SYSTEM FROM THE WEST WILL LIKELY
INTERACT WITH LINGERING MOISTURE OVER ARIZONA FOR A CHANCE OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. AT THIS TIME...TIMING IS THE MAIN
DIFFERENCE BETWEEN THE ENSEMBLE OF MODELS. WE`LL KEEP YOU POSTED.

&&

.AVIATION...
FOR THE 18Z PACKAGE...EXPECT SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO
INCREASE IN COVERAGE TODAY...MOST NUMEROUS ALONG AND NORTH OF THE
MOGOLLON RIM. STORM MOTION WILL BE TO THE NORTH AT 10 TO 15 MPH...
WITH IFR/MVFR CONDITIONS IN THE STRONGER STORMS. SCT SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AND
THROUGH THE MORNING ON SUNDAY. AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR
AMENDMENTS.
&&

.FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC.........TC/MCCOLLUM
AVIATION.......BAK

FOR NORTHERN ARIZONA WEATHER INFORMATION VISIT
WEATHER.GOV/FLAGSTAFF









000
FXUS65 KPSR 201534
AFDPSR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PHOENIX AZ
835 AM MST SAT SEP 20 2014


.SYNOPSIS...
LINGERING MOISTURE ACROSS THE REGION AND LOW PRESSURE APPROACHING
FROM THE WEST WILL KEEP AT LEAST SLIGHT CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS FOR TODAY. DRIER AIR WILL GRADUALLY FILTER
INTO THE REGION SUNDAY AND MONDAY FOR A DECLINE IN STORM CHANCES.
SLIGHT CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE CONFINED TO THE
HIGHER MOUNTAINS OF SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA DURING THE MIDDLE OF NEXT
WEEK WITH SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES. AN APPROACHING
PACIFIC WEATHER SYSTEM LATE NEXT WEEK WILL LEAD TO AN INCREASE IN
STORM CHANCES.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
ANOTHER HUMID MORNING AS YOU WALK OUTSIDE. CURRENT DEWPOINT READINGS
ACROSS PHOENIX METRO RANGE FROM THE MID 60S TO MID 70S AND ACROSS
SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA 60S TO 70S AS WELL WITH SOME DRIER AIR FARTHER
NORTH INTO JOSHUA TREE NATIONAL PARK AND SAN BERNARDINO COUNTY. THE
STRONG UPPER LEVEL LOW CONTINUES TO SPIN OFF SHORE OF SOUTHERN
CALIFORNIA WHILE HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW MEXICO
AND WEST TEXAS...GIVING WAY TO A SOUTHERLY FETCH OF MOISTURE
STREAMING INTO ARIZONA. THIS SHOULD REMAIN IN PLACE THE REMAINDER OF
TODAY...CREATING DIFLUENT CONDITIONS FROM THE LOWER COLORADO RIVER
VALLEY UP THROUGH EASTERN NEVADA AND WESTERN UTAH WHERE CONDITIONS
SHOULD BE MORE FAVORABLE FOR THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY. THE FORECAST IS
IN GOOD SHAPE FROM THE PREVIOUS SHIFT SO NO UPDATES NEEDED AT THIS
TIME AND THE PREVIOUS DISCUSSION STILL APPLIES.

.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION.../ISSUED 248 AM MST/PDT 20 SEPT 2014/...
MONSOON MOISTURE WILL STILL BE A FACTOR OVER THE NEXT WEEK...BUT
MAINLY ACROSS EASTERN PORTIONS OF ARIZONA. IN THE NEAR TERM...A
CUT-OFF UPPER LOW CENTERED OFF THE SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA COAST IS
ALLOWING FOR AN INCREASE IN SOUTHERLY FLOW ACROSS THE AREA...THUS
TAPPING INTO ADDITIONAL MOISTURE OVER NORTHERN MEXICO. CURRENT IR
IMAGERY HINTS AT SOME OF THIS MOISTURE ADVECTION IN THE FORM OF
ACCAS CLOUDS ACROSS SOUTHERN ARIZONA. HI-RES MODELS DO INDICATE SOME
LIGHT SHOWERS WILL BE PRESENT ACROSS YUMA COUNTY AFTER 12Z THIS
MORNING IN THE MAIN MOISTURE ADVECTION AREA. HAVE INTRODUCED SOME
SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ACROSS YUMA AND SOUTHERN MARICOPA COUNTIES
STARTING AROUND 12Z AND THEN EXPANDING AS THE DAY PROGRESSES.

THE UPPER LOW WILL REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY UNTIL THIS EVENING WHEN
GOOD MODEL AGREEMENT SHOWS IT FINALLY LIFTING NORTHEASTWARD INTO THE
GREAT BASIN. A FAIRLY STRONG UPPER JET MAX ACROSS SOUTHEAST
CALIFORNIA WILL ALLOW FOR A FAVORABLE AREA OF ASCENT TODAY MAINLY
FOCUSED ACROSS WESTERN ARIZONA. COULD SEE SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS ALL BUT THE IMPERIAL VALLEY THIS AFTERNOON WITH
THE BEST CHANCES ACROSS LA PAZ COUNTY CLOSER TO THE FAVORED ASCENT
AREA AND ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF GILA COUNTY. ACTIVITY SHOULD
REMAIN FAIRLY ISOLATED AS INSTABILITY WILL BE SOMEWHAT LIMITED BASED
ON FORECAST SOUNDINGS. THERE WILL BE SOME POTENTIAL FOR STRONG GUSTY
WINDS TODAY...MAINLY ACROSS SOUTHWEST ARIZONA WHERE MID LEVEL WINDS
WILL BE 15-25 KNOTS. DON/T FEEL THERE WILL BE MUCH OF A FLOOD THREAT
TODAY WITH A SOUTHERLY STEERING FLOW AT 10-20 KNOTS AND PRECIPITABLE
WATER VALUES OF 1.25-1.50 INCHES.

AS THE UPPER LOW LIFTS INTO THE GREAT BASIN ON
SUNDAY...SOUTHWESTERLY MID AND UPPER LEVEL FLOW WILL BRING IN DRIER
AIR FROM THE SOUTHWEST. THE LOW LEVELS WILL REMAIN FAIRLY MOIST FROM
MARICOPA COUNTY EASTWARD ALLOWING FOR A CONTINUED SLIGHT CHANCE OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FOR SUNDAY MAINLY OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN
NORTH AND EAST OF PHOENIX. FURTHER DRYING WILL TAKE PLACE EARLY NEXT
WEEK...CONFINING ANY SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ONLY ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN
AREAS EAST OF PHOENIX ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY. UPPER LEVEL RIDGING
TAKES OVER STARTING MONDAY WITH 500MB HEIGHTS BUILDING TO AROUND
590DM. GIVEN THE HIGH HEIGHTS AND FORECAST 850MB TEMPERATURES OF
23-25C...FEEL CONFIDENT THAT LOWER DESERT LOCATIONS WILL TOP OUT
ABOVE 100 STARTING MONDAY. DURING THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK...THE
UPPER RIDGE WILL AMPLIFY AHEAD OF A DEEPENING UPPER TROUGH OFF THE
PACIFIC NORTHWEST. THIS WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES ON THE WARM
SIDE...AROUND 3-5 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL...AT LEAST THROUGH THURSDAY
AND LIMIT ANY SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY TO FAR EASTERN GILA
COUNTY.

ATTENTION THEN TURNS TO A POSSIBLE SEASONAL TRANSITION SYSTEM FOR
LATE NEXT WEEK INTO NEXT WEEKEND. CONFIDENCE IS STILL NOT VERY HIGH
ON THE SPECIFICS OF THE SYSTEM...BUT THE 00Z MODEL RUNS CAME INTO
FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT THAT A DEEP PACIFIC TROUGH WILL SLIDE THROUGH
CALIFORNIA ON FRIDAY AND POSSIBLY AS FAR SOUTH AS ARIZONA SOMETIME
NEXT WEEKEND. WIDESPREAD SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ARE IN THE FORECAST FOR
FRIDAY...AND MAY NEED TO RAMP UP POPS OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS IF THE
TROUGH LOOKS LIKE IT WILL DIG FAR ENOUGH SOUTH INTO OUR AREA. EITHER
WAY IT IS FAIRLY LIKELY THIS LOW WILL USHER IN COOLER AND MUCH DRIER
AIR...AND POTENTIALLY ENDING OUR MONSOON SEASON.

&&

.AVIATION...
SOUTH-CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ARIZONA AND SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA
INCLUDING KPHX...KIWA...KSDL...KIPL...AND KBLH...

AN UPPER LOW CENTERED OFF THE COAST OF SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA WILL PULL
MONSOON MOISTURE NORTHWARD TODAY FOR SCT-BKN080-100 WITH SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN NORTH...EAST...AND
SOUTH...OF THE PHOENIX AREA AND ISOLATED ELSEWHERE. ONSET OF SHOWERS
POSSIBLE BEFORE 18Z. CONFIDENCE TOO LOW AN ANY GIVEN TAF SITE TO
INSERT TEMPO SHWRS/TSTMS.

AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDED TAFS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...
MOISTURE RETREAT DUE TO WESTERLY FLOW WILL KEEP STORM CHANCES
MINIMAL THROUGH THURSDAY AND LIMITED TO THE HIGHER MOUNTAINS OF
SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA. MEANWHILE...TEMPERATURES NUDGE UPWARD A FEW
DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. HUMIDITIES ON THE LOWER DESERTS DROP BELOW 15
PERCENT THOUGH MAX HUMIDITIES REMAIN FAIR. NO STRONG WINDS ARE
EXPECTED DURING THIS TIME FRAME. ON FRIDAY...A PACIFIC WEATHER
SYSTEM WILL PULL MOISTURE NORTHWARD OVER THE REGION FOR A RETURN OF
STORM CHANCES...MAINLY EAST OF THE LOWER COLORADO RIVER VALLEY. IN
ADDITION...COOLER TEMPERATURES AND BREEZY TO LOCALLY WINDY
CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED AS WELL.

&&

.PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

AZ...NONE.

CA...NONE.

&&

$$

VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/PHOENIX

DISCUSSION...DEWEY
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...KUHLMAN
AVIATION...AJ
FIRE WEATHER...AJ







000
FXUS65 KPSR 201233 AAA
AFDPSR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PHOENIX AZ
535 AM MST SAT SEP 20 2014

.UPDATE...
UPDATED AVIATION AND FIRE WEATHER SECTIONS.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
LINGERING MOISTURE ACROSS THE REGION AND LOW PRESSURE APPROACHING
FROM THE WEST WILL KEEP AT LEAST SLIGHT CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS FOR TODAY. DRIER AIR WILL GRADUALLY FILTER
INTO THE REGION SUNDAY AND MONDAY FOR A DECLINE IN STORM CHANCES.
SLIGHT CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE CONFINED TO THE
HIGHER MOUNTAINS OF SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA DURING THE MIDDLE OF NEXT
WEEK WITH SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES. AN APPROACHING
PACIFIC WEATHER SYSTEM LATE NEXT WEEK WILL LEAD TO AN INCREASE IN
STORM CHANCES.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
MONSOON MOISTURE WILL STILL BE A FACTOR OVER THE NEXT WEEK...BUT
MAINLY ACROSS EASTERN PORTIONS OF ARIZONA. IN THE NEAR TERM...A
CUT-OFF UPPER LOW CENTERED OFF THE SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA COAST IS
ALLOWING FOR AN INCREASE IN SOUTHERLY FLOW ACROSS THE AREA...THUS
TAPPING INTO ADDITIONAL MOISTURE OVER NORTHERN MEXICO. CURRENT IR
IMAGERY HINTS AT SOME OF THIS MOISTURE ADVECTION IN THE FORM OF
ACCAS CLOUDS ACROSS SOUTHERN ARIZONA. HI-RES MODELS DO INDICATE SOME
LIGHT SHOWERS WILL BE PRESENT ACROSS YUMA COUNTY AFTER 12Z THIS
MORNING IN THE MAIN MOISTURE ADVECTION AREA. HAVE INTRODUCED SOME
SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ACROSS YUMA AND SOUTHERN MARICOPA COUNTIES
STARTING AROUND 12Z AND THEN EXPANDING AS THE DAY PROGRESSES.

THE UPPER LOW WILL REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY UNTIL THIS EVENING WHEN
GOOD MODEL AGREEMENT SHOWS IT FINALLY LIFTING NORTHEASTWARD INTO THE
GREAT BASIN. A FAIRLY STRONG UPPER JET MAX ACROSS SOUTHEAST
CALIFORNIA WILL ALLOW FOR A FAVORABLE AREA OF ASCENT TODAY MAINLY
FOCUSED ACROSS WESTERN ARIZONA. COULD SEE SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS ALL BUT THE IMPERIAL VALLEY THIS AFTERNOON WITH
THE BEST CHANCES ACROSS LA PAZ COUNTY CLOSER TO THE FAVORED ASCENT
AREA AND ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF GILA COUNTY. ACTIVITY SHOULD
REMAIN FAIRLY ISOLATED AS INSTABILITY WILL BE SOMEWHAT LIMITED BASED
ON FORECAST SOUNDINGS. THERE WILL BE SOME POTENTIAL FOR STRONG GUSTY
WINDS TODAY...MAINLY ACROSS SOUTHWEST ARIZONA WHERE MID LEVEL WINDS
WILL BE 15-25 KNOTS. DON/T FEEL THERE WILL BE MUCH OF A FLOOD THREAT
TODAY WITH A SOUTHERLY STEERING FLOW AT 10-20 KNOTS AND PRECIPITABLE
WATER VALUES OF 1.25-1.50 INCHES.

AS THE UPPER LOW LIFTS INTO THE GREAT BASIN ON
SUNDAY...SOUTHWESTERLY MID AND UPPER LEVEL FLOW WILL BRING IN DRIER
AIR FROM THE SOUTHWEST. THE LOW LEVELS WILL REMAIN FAIRLY MOIST FROM
MARICOPA COUNTY EASTWARD ALLOWING FOR A CONTINUED SLIGHT CHANCE OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FOR SUNDAY MAINLY OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN
NORTH AND EAST OF PHOENIX. FURTHER DRYING WILL TAKE PLACE EARLY NEXT
WEEK...CONFINING ANY SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ONLY ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN
AREAS EAST OF PHOENIX ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY. UPPER LEVEL RIDGING
TAKES OVER STARTING MONDAY WITH 500MB HEIGHTS BUILDING TO AROUND
590DM. GIVEN THE HIGH HEIGHTS AND FORECAST 850MB TEMPERATURES OF
23-25C...FEEL CONFIDENT THAT LOWER DESERT LOCATIONS WILL TOP OUT
ABOVE 100 STARTING MONDAY. DURING THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK...THE
UPPER RIDGE WILL AMPLIFY AHEAD OF A DEEPENING UPPER TROUGH OFF THE
PACIFIC NORTHWEST. THIS WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES ON THE WARM
SIDE...AROUND 3-5 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL...AT LEAST THROUGH THURSDAY
AND LIMIT ANY SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY TO FAR EASTERN GILA
COUNTY.

ATTENTION THEN TURNS TO A POSSIBLE SEASONAL TRANSITION SYSTEM FOR
LATE NEXT WEEK INTO NEXT WEEKEND. CONFIDENCE IS STILL NOT VERY HIGH
ON THE SPECIFICS OF THE SYSTEM...BUT THE 00Z MODEL RUNS CAME INTO
FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT THAT A DEEP PACIFIC TROUGH WILL SLIDE THROUGH
CALIFORNIA ON FRIDAY AND POSSIBLY AS FAR SOUTH AS ARIZONA SOMETIME
NEXT WEEKEND. WIDESPREAD SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ARE IN THE FORECAST FOR
FRIDAY...AND MAY NEED TO RAMP UP POPS OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS IF THE
TROUGH LOOKS LIKE IT WILL DIG FAR ENOUGH SOUTH INTO OUR AREA. EITHER
WAY IT IS FAIRLY LIKELY THIS LOW WILL USHER IN COOLER AND MUCH DRIER
AIR...AND POTENTIALLY ENDING OUR MONSOON SEASON.

&&

.AVIATION...
SOUTH-CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ARIZONA AND SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA
INCLUDING KPHX...KIWA...KSDL...KIPL...AND KBLH...

AN UPPER LOW CENTERED OFF THE COAST OF SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA WILL PULL
MONSOON MOISTURE NORTHWARD TODAY FOR SCT-BKN080-100 WITH SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN NORTH...EAST...AND
SOUTH...OF THE PHOENIX AREA AND ISOLATED ELSEWHERE. ONSET OF SHOWERS
POSSIBLE BEFORE 18Z. CONFIDENCE TOO LOW AN ANY GIVEN TAF SITE TO
INSERT TEMPO SHWRS/TSTMS.

AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDED TAFS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...
MOISTURE RETREAT DUE TO WESTERLY FLOW WILL KEEP STORM CHANCES
MINIMAL THROUGH THURSDAY AND LIMITED TO THE HIGHER MOUNTAINS OF
SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA. MEANWHILE...TEMPERATURES NUDGE UPWARD A FEW
DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. HUMIDITIES ON THE LOWER DESERTS DROP BELOW 15
PERCENT THOUGH MAX HUMIDITIES REMAIN FAIR. NO STRONG WINDS ARE
EXPECTED DURING THIS TIME FRAME. ON FRIDAY...A PACIFIC WEATHER
SYSTEM WILL PULL MOISTURE NORTHWARD OVER THE REGION FOR A RETURN OF
STORM CHANCES...MAINLY EAST OF THE LOWER COLORADO RIVER VALLEY. IN
ADDITION...COOLER TEMPERATURES AND BREEZY TO LOCALLY WINDY
CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED AS WELL.

&&

.PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

AZ...NONE.

CA...NONE.

&&

$$

VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/PHOENIX

DISCUSSION...KUHLMAN
AVIATION...AJ
FIRE WEATHER...AJ







000
FXUS65 KTWC 201051
AFDTWC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ
350 AM MST SAT SEP 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...LINGERING MOISTURE WILL MAINTAIN A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS INTO THIS WEEKEND. HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT COULD PROVIDE
REDUCED RAINFALL CHANCES NEXT WEEK. EXPECT GRADUALLY WARMER DAYTIME
TEMPERATURES INTO THIS WEEKEND.

&&

.DISCUSSION...MOISTURE VALUES REMAINING HIGH ACROSS SE ARIZONA THIS
MORNING WITH VALUES RANGING FROM 1.40" TO 1.6O". AT THE SURFACE THE
DEWPOINTS MOSTLY RANGED FROM THE MID 50S TO NEAR 70 DEGREES.
SATELLITE IMAGERY PLACED A CLOSED LOW OFFSHORE WNW OF LOS ANGELES.
THIS LOW WILL LIFT NE TODAY AND BE LOCATED NEAR THE CA COAST BETWEEN
LA AND FRISCO. PLENTY OF SUNSHINE WILL BE AROUND TODAY FOR ISOLATED
TO SCATTERED STORMS...SOME OF WHICH MAY BE HEAVY RAINERS.

DRIER AIR PUSHES IN FROM THE WEST...ESPECIALLY OVER THE WESTERN
ZONES...ON SUNDAY AS THE UPPER LOW MOVES INTO CENTRAL NEVADA.
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED STORMS...SOME OF WHICH WILL BE HEAVY RAINERS.

BY MONDAY THE UPPER LOW WILL BE IN WYOMING WITH WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT
OVER THE AREA. STILL HANGING ON TO MODEST PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES
FOR ISOLATED TO LOW SCATTERED COVERAGE OF STORMS.

AS UPPER HIGH BUILDS OVER THE STATE TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY LIMITING
ANY STORMS TO THE HIGHER TERRAIN EAST AND SOUTH OF TUCSON.

A SMALL UPTICK IN AREAL COVERAGE OF STORMS THURSDAY AS MOISTURE
INCREASES A BIT AS A STRONG PACIFIC UPPER TROF APPROACHES THE WEST
COAST.

THIS UPPER TROF WILL PUSH INLAND ON FRIDAY...BRINGING A BETTER
CHANCE OF STORMS...SOME OF WHICH COULD BE SEVERE...ESPECIALLY ACROSS
NORTHERN PARTS OF THE FORECAST AREA.

HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE GRADUALLY WARMING TO ABOVE NORMAL LEVELS
THIS WEEKEND AND HOLD THERE UNTIL THE END OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...VALID THRU 21/12Z.
ISOLD TO SCTD -SHRA/-TSRA THIS AFTN AND EVENING. SFC WINDS WILL BE
MAINLY LESS THAN 10 KTS. AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR TAF
AMENDMENTS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...MOISTURE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE INTO NEXT WEEK FOR THE
CONTINUED CHANCE OF AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...YOUTUBE...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/TUCSON







000
FXUS65 KTWC 201051
AFDTWC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ
350 AM MST SAT SEP 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...LINGERING MOISTURE WILL MAINTAIN A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS INTO THIS WEEKEND. HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT COULD PROVIDE
REDUCED RAINFALL CHANCES NEXT WEEK. EXPECT GRADUALLY WARMER DAYTIME
TEMPERATURES INTO THIS WEEKEND.

&&

.DISCUSSION...MOISTURE VALUES REMAINING HIGH ACROSS SE ARIZONA THIS
MORNING WITH VALUES RANGING FROM 1.40" TO 1.6O". AT THE SURFACE THE
DEWPOINTS MOSTLY RANGED FROM THE MID 50S TO NEAR 70 DEGREES.
SATELLITE IMAGERY PLACED A CLOSED LOW OFFSHORE WNW OF LOS ANGELES.
THIS LOW WILL LIFT NE TODAY AND BE LOCATED NEAR THE CA COAST BETWEEN
LA AND FRISCO. PLENTY OF SUNSHINE WILL BE AROUND TODAY FOR ISOLATED
TO SCATTERED STORMS...SOME OF WHICH MAY BE HEAVY RAINERS.

DRIER AIR PUSHES IN FROM THE WEST...ESPECIALLY OVER THE WESTERN
ZONES...ON SUNDAY AS THE UPPER LOW MOVES INTO CENTRAL NEVADA.
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED STORMS...SOME OF WHICH WILL BE HEAVY RAINERS.

BY MONDAY THE UPPER LOW WILL BE IN WYOMING WITH WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT
OVER THE AREA. STILL HANGING ON TO MODEST PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES
FOR ISOLATED TO LOW SCATTERED COVERAGE OF STORMS.

AS UPPER HIGH BUILDS OVER THE STATE TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY LIMITING
ANY STORMS TO THE HIGHER TERRAIN EAST AND SOUTH OF TUCSON.

A SMALL UPTICK IN AREAL COVERAGE OF STORMS THURSDAY AS MOISTURE
INCREASES A BIT AS A STRONG PACIFIC UPPER TROF APPROACHES THE WEST
COAST.

THIS UPPER TROF WILL PUSH INLAND ON FRIDAY...BRINGING A BETTER
CHANCE OF STORMS...SOME OF WHICH COULD BE SEVERE...ESPECIALLY ACROSS
NORTHERN PARTS OF THE FORECAST AREA.

HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE GRADUALLY WARMING TO ABOVE NORMAL LEVELS
THIS WEEKEND AND HOLD THERE UNTIL THE END OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...VALID THRU 21/12Z.
ISOLD TO SCTD -SHRA/-TSRA THIS AFTN AND EVENING. SFC WINDS WILL BE
MAINLY LESS THAN 10 KTS. AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR TAF
AMENDMENTS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...MOISTURE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE INTO NEXT WEEK FOR THE
CONTINUED CHANCE OF AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...YOUTUBE...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/TUCSON







000
FXUS65 KTWC 201051
AFDTWC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ
350 AM MST SAT SEP 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...LINGERING MOISTURE WILL MAINTAIN A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS INTO THIS WEEKEND. HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT COULD PROVIDE
REDUCED RAINFALL CHANCES NEXT WEEK. EXPECT GRADUALLY WARMER DAYTIME
TEMPERATURES INTO THIS WEEKEND.

&&

.DISCUSSION...MOISTURE VALUES REMAINING HIGH ACROSS SE ARIZONA THIS
MORNING WITH VALUES RANGING FROM 1.40" TO 1.6O". AT THE SURFACE THE
DEWPOINTS MOSTLY RANGED FROM THE MID 50S TO NEAR 70 DEGREES.
SATELLITE IMAGERY PLACED A CLOSED LOW OFFSHORE WNW OF LOS ANGELES.
THIS LOW WILL LIFT NE TODAY AND BE LOCATED NEAR THE CA COAST BETWEEN
LA AND FRISCO. PLENTY OF SUNSHINE WILL BE AROUND TODAY FOR ISOLATED
TO SCATTERED STORMS...SOME OF WHICH MAY BE HEAVY RAINERS.

DRIER AIR PUSHES IN FROM THE WEST...ESPECIALLY OVER THE WESTERN
ZONES...ON SUNDAY AS THE UPPER LOW MOVES INTO CENTRAL NEVADA.
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED STORMS...SOME OF WHICH WILL BE HEAVY RAINERS.

BY MONDAY THE UPPER LOW WILL BE IN WYOMING WITH WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT
OVER THE AREA. STILL HANGING ON TO MODEST PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES
FOR ISOLATED TO LOW SCATTERED COVERAGE OF STORMS.

AS UPPER HIGH BUILDS OVER THE STATE TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY LIMITING
ANY STORMS TO THE HIGHER TERRAIN EAST AND SOUTH OF TUCSON.

A SMALL UPTICK IN AREAL COVERAGE OF STORMS THURSDAY AS MOISTURE
INCREASES A BIT AS A STRONG PACIFIC UPPER TROF APPROACHES THE WEST
COAST.

THIS UPPER TROF WILL PUSH INLAND ON FRIDAY...BRINGING A BETTER
CHANCE OF STORMS...SOME OF WHICH COULD BE SEVERE...ESPECIALLY ACROSS
NORTHERN PARTS OF THE FORECAST AREA.

HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE GRADUALLY WARMING TO ABOVE NORMAL LEVELS
THIS WEEKEND AND HOLD THERE UNTIL THE END OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...VALID THRU 21/12Z.
ISOLD TO SCTD -SHRA/-TSRA THIS AFTN AND EVENING. SFC WINDS WILL BE
MAINLY LESS THAN 10 KTS. AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR TAF
AMENDMENTS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...MOISTURE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE INTO NEXT WEEK FOR THE
CONTINUED CHANCE OF AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...YOUTUBE...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/TUCSON







000
FXUS65 KTWC 201051
AFDTWC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ
350 AM MST SAT SEP 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...LINGERING MOISTURE WILL MAINTAIN A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS INTO THIS WEEKEND. HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT COULD PROVIDE
REDUCED RAINFALL CHANCES NEXT WEEK. EXPECT GRADUALLY WARMER DAYTIME
TEMPERATURES INTO THIS WEEKEND.

&&

.DISCUSSION...MOISTURE VALUES REMAINING HIGH ACROSS SE ARIZONA THIS
MORNING WITH VALUES RANGING FROM 1.40" TO 1.6O". AT THE SURFACE THE
DEWPOINTS MOSTLY RANGED FROM THE MID 50S TO NEAR 70 DEGREES.
SATELLITE IMAGERY PLACED A CLOSED LOW OFFSHORE WNW OF LOS ANGELES.
THIS LOW WILL LIFT NE TODAY AND BE LOCATED NEAR THE CA COAST BETWEEN
LA AND FRISCO. PLENTY OF SUNSHINE WILL BE AROUND TODAY FOR ISOLATED
TO SCATTERED STORMS...SOME OF WHICH MAY BE HEAVY RAINERS.

DRIER AIR PUSHES IN FROM THE WEST...ESPECIALLY OVER THE WESTERN
ZONES...ON SUNDAY AS THE UPPER LOW MOVES INTO CENTRAL NEVADA.
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED STORMS...SOME OF WHICH WILL BE HEAVY RAINERS.

BY MONDAY THE UPPER LOW WILL BE IN WYOMING WITH WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT
OVER THE AREA. STILL HANGING ON TO MODEST PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES
FOR ISOLATED TO LOW SCATTERED COVERAGE OF STORMS.

AS UPPER HIGH BUILDS OVER THE STATE TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY LIMITING
ANY STORMS TO THE HIGHER TERRAIN EAST AND SOUTH OF TUCSON.

A SMALL UPTICK IN AREAL COVERAGE OF STORMS THURSDAY AS MOISTURE
INCREASES A BIT AS A STRONG PACIFIC UPPER TROF APPROACHES THE WEST
COAST.

THIS UPPER TROF WILL PUSH INLAND ON FRIDAY...BRINGING A BETTER
CHANCE OF STORMS...SOME OF WHICH COULD BE SEVERE...ESPECIALLY ACROSS
NORTHERN PARTS OF THE FORECAST AREA.

HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE GRADUALLY WARMING TO ABOVE NORMAL LEVELS
THIS WEEKEND AND HOLD THERE UNTIL THE END OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...VALID THRU 21/12Z.
ISOLD TO SCTD -SHRA/-TSRA THIS AFTN AND EVENING. SFC WINDS WILL BE
MAINLY LESS THAN 10 KTS. AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR TAF
AMENDMENTS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...MOISTURE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE INTO NEXT WEEK FOR THE
CONTINUED CHANCE OF AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...YOUTUBE...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/TUCSON







000
FXUS65 KPSR 200948
AFDPSR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PHOENIX AZ
248 AM MST SAT SEP 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LINGERING MOISTURE ACROSS THE REGION AND LOW PRESSURE APPROACHING
FROM THE WEST WILL KEEP AT LEAST SLIGHT CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS FOR TODAY. DRIER AIR WILL GRADUALLY FILTER
INTO THE REGION SUNDAY AND MONDAY FOR A DECLINE IN STORM CHANCES.
SLIGHT CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE CONFINED TO THE
HIGHER MOUNTAINS OF SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA DURING THE MIDDLE OF NEXT
WEEK WITH SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES. AN APPROACHING
PACIFIC WEATHER SYSTEM LATE NEXT WEEK WILL LEAD TO AN INCREASE IN
STORM CHANCES.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
MONSOON MOISTURE WILL STILL BE A FACTOR OVER THE NEXT WEEK...BUT
MAINLY ACROSS EASTERN PORTIONS OF ARIZONA. IN THE NEAR TERM...A
CUT-OFF UPPER LOW CENTERED OFF THE SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA COAST IS
ALLOWING FOR AN INCREASE IN SOUTHERLY FLOW ACROSS THE AREA...THUS
TAPPING INTO ADDITIONAL MOISTURE OVER NORTHERN MEXICO. CURRENT IR
IMAGERY HINTS AT SOME OF THIS MOISTURE ADVECTION IN THE FORM OF
ACCAS CLOUDS ACROSS SOUTHERN ARIZONA. HI-RES MODELS DO INDICATE SOME
LIGHT SHOWERS WILL BE PRESENT ACROSS YUMA COUNTY AFTER 12Z THIS
MORNING IN THE MAIN MOISTURE ADVECTION AREA. HAVE INTRODUCED SOME
SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ACROSS YUMA AND SOUTHERN MARICOPA COUNTIES
STARTING AROUND 12Z AND THEN EXPANDING AS THE DAY PROGRESSES.

THE UPPER LOW WILL REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY UNTIL THIS EVENING WHEN
GOOD MODEL AGREEMENT SHOWS IT FINALLY LIFTING NORTHEASTWARD INTO THE
GREAT BASIN. A FAIRLY STRONG UPPER JET MAX ACROSS SOUTHEAST
CALIFORNIA WILL ALLOW FOR A FAVORABLE AREA OF ASCENT TODAY MAINLY
FOCUSED ACROSS WESTERN ARIZONA. COULD SEE SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS ALL BUT THE IMPERIAL VALLEY THIS AFTERNOON WITH
THE BEST CHANCES ACROSS LA PAZ COUNTY CLOSER TO THE FAVORED ASCENT
AREA AND ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF GILA COUNTY. ACTIVITY SHOULD
REMAIN FAIRLY ISOLATED AS INSTABILITY WILL BE SOMEWHAT LIMITED BASED
ON FORECAST SOUNDINGS. THERE WILL BE SOME POTENTIAL FOR STRONG GUSTY
WINDS TODAY...MAINLY ACROSS SOUTHWEST ARIZONA WHERE MID LEVEL WINDS
WILL BE 15-25 KNOTS. DON/T FEEL THERE WILL BE MUCH OF A FLOOD THREAT
TODAY WITH A SOUTHERLY STEERING FLOW AT 10-20 KNOTS AND PRECIPITABLE
WATER VALUES OF 1.25-1.50 INCHES.

AS THE UPPER LOW LIFTS INTO THE GREAT BASIN ON
SUNDAY...SOUTHWESTERLY MID AND UPPER LEVEL FLOW WILL BRING IN DRIER
AIR FROM THE SOUTHWEST. THE LOW LEVELS WILL REMAIN FAIRLY MOIST FROM
MARICOPA COUNTY EASTWARD ALLOWING FOR A CONTINUED SLIGHT CHANCE OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FOR SUNDAY MAINLY OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN
NORTH AND EAST OF PHOENIX. FURTHER DRYING WILL TAKE PLACE EARLY NEXT
WEEK...CONFINING ANY SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ONLY ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN
AREAS EAST OF PHOENIX ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY. UPPER LEVEL RIDGING
TAKES OVER STARTING MONDAY WITH 500MB HEIGHTS BUILDING TO AROUND
590DM. GIVEN THE HIGH HEIGHTS AND FORECAST 850MB TEMPERATURES OF
23-25C...FEEL CONFIDENT THAT LOWER DESERT LOCATIONS WILL TOP OUT
ABOVE 100 STARTING MONDAY. DURING THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK...THE
UPPER RIDGE WILL AMPLIFY AHEAD OF A DEEPENING UPPER TROUGH OFF THE
PACIFIC NORTHWEST. THIS WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES ON THE WARM
SIDE...AROUND 3-5 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL...AT LEAST THROUGH THURSDAY
AND LIMIT ANY SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY TO FAR EASTERN GILA
COUNTY.

ATTENTION THEN TURNS TO A POSSIBLE SEASONAL TRANSITION SYSTEM FOR
LATE NEXT WEEK INTO NEXT WEEKEND. CONFIDENCE IS STILL NOT VERY HIGH
ON THE SPECIFICS OF THE SYSTEM...BUT THE 00Z MODEL RUNS CAME INTO
FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT THAT A DEEP PACIFIC TROUGH WILL SLIDE THROUGH
CALIFORNIA ON FRIDAY AND POSSIBLY AS FAR SOUTH AS ARIZONA SOMETIME
NEXT WEEKEND. WIDESPREAD SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ARE IN THE FORECAST FOR
FRIDAY...AND MAY NEED TO RAMP UP POPS OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS IF THE
TROUGH LOOKS LIKE IT WILL DIG FAR ENOUGH SOUTH INTO OUR AREA. EITHER
WAY IT IS FAIRLY LIKELY THIS LOW WILL USHER IN COOLER AND MUCH DRIER
AIR...AND POTENTIALLY ENDING OUR MONSOON SEASON.

&&

.AVIATION...
SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA INCLUDING KPHX...KIWA...AND KSDL...

THROUGH 19Z SAT...SCT-BKN CLDS AOA 10 THSD MSL. LIGHT WIND UNDER 8
KNOTS.

SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA AND SOUTHWEST ARIZONA INCLUDING KIPL AND KBLH...

MAINLY CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WIND TO PREVAIL ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH
19Z SAT.

AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDED TAFS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...
RATHER DRY WESTERLY FLOW TO KEEP SKIES MAINLY CLEAR THROUGH THE
FORECAST PERIOD AT MOST LOCATIONS ACROSS THE REGION...WITH THE
EXCEPTION OF THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA...WHERE
LINGERING MOISTURE MAY ALLOW ISOLATED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS TO
DEVELOP EACH AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING. MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITIES TO
FALL INTO THE 20 TO 30 PERCENT RANGE EACH AFTERNOON...WITH GOOD TO
EXCELLENT OVERNIGHT RECOVERIES. WINDS TO REMAIN MAINLY ON THE LIGHT
SIDE...MAINLY IN THE 5 TO 15 MPH RANGE...WITH THE USUAL DIURNAL
TRENDS TO PREVAIL AT MOST LOCATIONS.


&&

.PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

AZ...NONE.

CA...NONE.

&&

$$

VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/PHOENIX

DISCUSSION...KUHLMAN
AVIATION...VASQUEZ
FIRE WEATHER...MEYERS/PERCHA











000
FXUS65 KPSR 200948
AFDPSR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PHOENIX AZ
248 AM MST SAT SEP 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LINGERING MOISTURE ACROSS THE REGION AND LOW PRESSURE APPROACHING
FROM THE WEST WILL KEEP AT LEAST SLIGHT CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS FOR TODAY. DRIER AIR WILL GRADUALLY FILTER
INTO THE REGION SUNDAY AND MONDAY FOR A DECLINE IN STORM CHANCES.
SLIGHT CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE CONFINED TO THE
HIGHER MOUNTAINS OF SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA DURING THE MIDDLE OF NEXT
WEEK WITH SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES. AN APPROACHING
PACIFIC WEATHER SYSTEM LATE NEXT WEEK WILL LEAD TO AN INCREASE IN
STORM CHANCES.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
MONSOON MOISTURE WILL STILL BE A FACTOR OVER THE NEXT WEEK...BUT
MAINLY ACROSS EASTERN PORTIONS OF ARIZONA. IN THE NEAR TERM...A
CUT-OFF UPPER LOW CENTERED OFF THE SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA COAST IS
ALLOWING FOR AN INCREASE IN SOUTHERLY FLOW ACROSS THE AREA...THUS
TAPPING INTO ADDITIONAL MOISTURE OVER NORTHERN MEXICO. CURRENT IR
IMAGERY HINTS AT SOME OF THIS MOISTURE ADVECTION IN THE FORM OF
ACCAS CLOUDS ACROSS SOUTHERN ARIZONA. HI-RES MODELS DO INDICATE SOME
LIGHT SHOWERS WILL BE PRESENT ACROSS YUMA COUNTY AFTER 12Z THIS
MORNING IN THE MAIN MOISTURE ADVECTION AREA. HAVE INTRODUCED SOME
SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ACROSS YUMA AND SOUTHERN MARICOPA COUNTIES
STARTING AROUND 12Z AND THEN EXPANDING AS THE DAY PROGRESSES.

THE UPPER LOW WILL REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY UNTIL THIS EVENING WHEN
GOOD MODEL AGREEMENT SHOWS IT FINALLY LIFTING NORTHEASTWARD INTO THE
GREAT BASIN. A FAIRLY STRONG UPPER JET MAX ACROSS SOUTHEAST
CALIFORNIA WILL ALLOW FOR A FAVORABLE AREA OF ASCENT TODAY MAINLY
FOCUSED ACROSS WESTERN ARIZONA. COULD SEE SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS ALL BUT THE IMPERIAL VALLEY THIS AFTERNOON WITH
THE BEST CHANCES ACROSS LA PAZ COUNTY CLOSER TO THE FAVORED ASCENT
AREA AND ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF GILA COUNTY. ACTIVITY SHOULD
REMAIN FAIRLY ISOLATED AS INSTABILITY WILL BE SOMEWHAT LIMITED BASED
ON FORECAST SOUNDINGS. THERE WILL BE SOME POTENTIAL FOR STRONG GUSTY
WINDS TODAY...MAINLY ACROSS SOUTHWEST ARIZONA WHERE MID LEVEL WINDS
WILL BE 15-25 KNOTS. DON/T FEEL THERE WILL BE MUCH OF A FLOOD THREAT
TODAY WITH A SOUTHERLY STEERING FLOW AT 10-20 KNOTS AND PRECIPITABLE
WATER VALUES OF 1.25-1.50 INCHES.

AS THE UPPER LOW LIFTS INTO THE GREAT BASIN ON
SUNDAY...SOUTHWESTERLY MID AND UPPER LEVEL FLOW WILL BRING IN DRIER
AIR FROM THE SOUTHWEST. THE LOW LEVELS WILL REMAIN FAIRLY MOIST FROM
MARICOPA COUNTY EASTWARD ALLOWING FOR A CONTINUED SLIGHT CHANCE OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FOR SUNDAY MAINLY OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN
NORTH AND EAST OF PHOENIX. FURTHER DRYING WILL TAKE PLACE EARLY NEXT
WEEK...CONFINING ANY SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ONLY ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN
AREAS EAST OF PHOENIX ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY. UPPER LEVEL RIDGING
TAKES OVER STARTING MONDAY WITH 500MB HEIGHTS BUILDING TO AROUND
590DM. GIVEN THE HIGH HEIGHTS AND FORECAST 850MB TEMPERATURES OF
23-25C...FEEL CONFIDENT THAT LOWER DESERT LOCATIONS WILL TOP OUT
ABOVE 100 STARTING MONDAY. DURING THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK...THE
UPPER RIDGE WILL AMPLIFY AHEAD OF A DEEPENING UPPER TROUGH OFF THE
PACIFIC NORTHWEST. THIS WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES ON THE WARM
SIDE...AROUND 3-5 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL...AT LEAST THROUGH THURSDAY
AND LIMIT ANY SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY TO FAR EASTERN GILA
COUNTY.

ATTENTION THEN TURNS TO A POSSIBLE SEASONAL TRANSITION SYSTEM FOR
LATE NEXT WEEK INTO NEXT WEEKEND. CONFIDENCE IS STILL NOT VERY HIGH
ON THE SPECIFICS OF THE SYSTEM...BUT THE 00Z MODEL RUNS CAME INTO
FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT THAT A DEEP PACIFIC TROUGH WILL SLIDE THROUGH
CALIFORNIA ON FRIDAY AND POSSIBLY AS FAR SOUTH AS ARIZONA SOMETIME
NEXT WEEKEND. WIDESPREAD SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ARE IN THE FORECAST FOR
FRIDAY...AND MAY NEED TO RAMP UP POPS OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS IF THE
TROUGH LOOKS LIKE IT WILL DIG FAR ENOUGH SOUTH INTO OUR AREA. EITHER
WAY IT IS FAIRLY LIKELY THIS LOW WILL USHER IN COOLER AND MUCH DRIER
AIR...AND POTENTIALLY ENDING OUR MONSOON SEASON.

&&

.AVIATION...
SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA INCLUDING KPHX...KIWA...AND KSDL...

THROUGH 19Z SAT...SCT-BKN CLDS AOA 10 THSD MSL. LIGHT WIND UNDER 8
KNOTS.

SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA AND SOUTHWEST ARIZONA INCLUDING KIPL AND KBLH...

MAINLY CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WIND TO PREVAIL ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH
19Z SAT.

AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDED TAFS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...
RATHER DRY WESTERLY FLOW TO KEEP SKIES MAINLY CLEAR THROUGH THE
FORECAST PERIOD AT MOST LOCATIONS ACROSS THE REGION...WITH THE
EXCEPTION OF THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA...WHERE
LINGERING MOISTURE MAY ALLOW ISOLATED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS TO
DEVELOP EACH AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING. MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITIES TO
FALL INTO THE 20 TO 30 PERCENT RANGE EACH AFTERNOON...WITH GOOD TO
EXCELLENT OVERNIGHT RECOVERIES. WINDS TO REMAIN MAINLY ON THE LIGHT
SIDE...MAINLY IN THE 5 TO 15 MPH RANGE...WITH THE USUAL DIURNAL
TRENDS TO PREVAIL AT MOST LOCATIONS.


&&

.PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

AZ...NONE.

CA...NONE.

&&

$$

VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/PHOENIX

DISCUSSION...KUHLMAN
AVIATION...VASQUEZ
FIRE WEATHER...MEYERS/PERCHA












000
FXUS65 KFGZ 200915
AFDFGZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ
230 AM MST SAT SEP 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE FROM SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA INTO
NEVADA THIS WEEKEND. THIS FEATURE WILL INCREASE THE CHANCE FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER NORTHERN ARIZONA TODAY INTO SUNDAY.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE REGION ON MONDAY WITH MAINLY DRY
WEATHER AND WARMER DAYTIME TEMPERATURES...LASTING THROUGH THURSDAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

FOR TODAY...LOW PRESSURE CENTERED JUST OFF THE SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA
COAST DURING THE MORNING HOURS WILL HEAD TO THE NORTHEAST. THE MAIN
EFFECT OVER ARIZONA WILL BE WEAK UPWARD MOTION AND SOME COOLING
ALOFT ALONG WITH STRENGTHENING VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. EXPECT THAT
SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL BE FAIRLY WIDESPREAD TODAY AND
TONIGHT. COOLING ALOFT WILL COMBINE WITH MOISTURE AND ENHANCED
VERTICAL SHEAR FOR A FEW STRONGER STORMS. AT THIS TIME IT LOOKS LIKE
THE MAIN THREAT WILL ISOLATED STORMS WITH DIME TO QUARTER SIZE
HAIL.

ON SUNDAY...THE LOW BEGINS TO ACCELERATE NORTHEASTWARD. WEAK UPWARD
LIFT WILL REMAIN OVER ARIZONA. THE FLOW WILL SHIFT TO MORE
SOUTHWESTERLY WITH GRADUAL DRYING THROUGH THE DAY. SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS CENTRAL AND NORTHERN
ARIZONA...ISOLATED SOUTH OF THE MOGOLLON...SCATTERED ACROSS THE
ARIZONA/UTAH BORDER AND NORTHEAST PORTION OF THE STATE.

MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...WARM HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE DESERT
SOUTHWEST WITH A DRIER WESTERLY FLOW. A VERY STABLE AIR MASS
OVERHEAD WILL SHARPLY LIMIT DAYTIME CONVECTION WITH FAIR NIGHTS
EXPECTED.

FRIDAY...MODELS SHOW THAT A STORM SYSTEM FROM THE WEST WILL LIKELY
INTERACT WITH LINGERING MOISTURE OVER ARIZONA FOR A CHANCE OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS. AT THIS TIME...TIMING IS THE MAIN DIFFERENCE
BETWEEN THE ENSEMBLE OF MODELS. WE`LL KEEP YOU POSTED.

&&

.AVIATION...

FOR THE 12Z PACKAGE...EXPECT SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO
DEVELOP TODAY AFTER 17Z WITH IFR/MVFR CONDITIONS IN THE STRONGER
STORMS. SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS AS AN UPPER LOW WILL ENHANCE STORM DEVELOPMENT.
AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDMENTS.

&&

.FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC.........MCCOLLUM
AVIATION.......BOHLIN

FOR NORTHERN ARIZONA WEATHER INFORMATION VISIT
WEATHER.GOV/FLAGSTAFF





000
FXUS65 KFGZ 200915
AFDFGZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ
230 AM MST SAT SEP 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE FROM SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA INTO
NEVADA THIS WEEKEND. THIS FEATURE WILL INCREASE THE CHANCE FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER NORTHERN ARIZONA TODAY INTO SUNDAY.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE REGION ON MONDAY WITH MAINLY DRY
WEATHER AND WARMER DAYTIME TEMPERATURES...LASTING THROUGH THURSDAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

FOR TODAY...LOW PRESSURE CENTERED JUST OFF THE SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA
COAST DURING THE MORNING HOURS WILL HEAD TO THE NORTHEAST. THE MAIN
EFFECT OVER ARIZONA WILL BE WEAK UPWARD MOTION AND SOME COOLING
ALOFT ALONG WITH STRENGTHENING VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. EXPECT THAT
SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL BE FAIRLY WIDESPREAD TODAY AND
TONIGHT. COOLING ALOFT WILL COMBINE WITH MOISTURE AND ENHANCED
VERTICAL SHEAR FOR A FEW STRONGER STORMS. AT THIS TIME IT LOOKS LIKE
THE MAIN THREAT WILL ISOLATED STORMS WITH DIME TO QUARTER SIZE
HAIL.

ON SUNDAY...THE LOW BEGINS TO ACCELERATE NORTHEASTWARD. WEAK UPWARD
LIFT WILL REMAIN OVER ARIZONA. THE FLOW WILL SHIFT TO MORE
SOUTHWESTERLY WITH GRADUAL DRYING THROUGH THE DAY. SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS CENTRAL AND NORTHERN
ARIZONA...ISOLATED SOUTH OF THE MOGOLLON...SCATTERED ACROSS THE
ARIZONA/UTAH BORDER AND NORTHEAST PORTION OF THE STATE.

MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...WARM HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE DESERT
SOUTHWEST WITH A DRIER WESTERLY FLOW. A VERY STABLE AIR MASS
OVERHEAD WILL SHARPLY LIMIT DAYTIME CONVECTION WITH FAIR NIGHTS
EXPECTED.

FRIDAY...MODELS SHOW THAT A STORM SYSTEM FROM THE WEST WILL LIKELY
INTERACT WITH LINGERING MOISTURE OVER ARIZONA FOR A CHANCE OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS. AT THIS TIME...TIMING IS THE MAIN DIFFERENCE
BETWEEN THE ENSEMBLE OF MODELS. WE`LL KEEP YOU POSTED.

&&

.AVIATION...

FOR THE 12Z PACKAGE...EXPECT SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO
DEVELOP TODAY AFTER 17Z WITH IFR/MVFR CONDITIONS IN THE STRONGER
STORMS. SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS AS AN UPPER LOW WILL ENHANCE STORM DEVELOPMENT.
AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDMENTS.

&&

.FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC.........MCCOLLUM
AVIATION.......BOHLIN

FOR NORTHERN ARIZONA WEATHER INFORMATION VISIT
WEATHER.GOV/FLAGSTAFF






000
FXUS65 KPSR 200338
AFDPSR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PHOENIX AZ
840 PM MST FRI SEP 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LINGERING MOISTURE ACROSS THE REGION AND LOW PRESSURE APPROACHING
FROM THE WEST WILL KEEP AT LEAST SLIGHT CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS IN THE FORECAST THROUGH SATURDAY. DRIER AIR WILL
GRADUALLY FILTER INTO THE REGION SUNDAY AND MONDAY FOR A DECLINE IN
STORM CHANCES. WITH LITTLE CHANGE THROUGH WEDNESDAY...STORM CHANCES
REMAIN VERY SLIGHT AND LIMITED TO THE HIGHER MOUNTAINS OF
SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA. TEMPERATURES WILL GRADUALLY WARM AS WELL. AN
APPROACHING PACIFIC WEATHER SYSTEM LATE NEXT WEEK WILL LEAD TO AN
INCREASE IN STORM CHANCES OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF SOUTH-CENTRAL
ARIZONA.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
THE ONLY CONVECTION THIS EVENING AT 03Z SAT WAS OVER THE REMOTE
PARTS OF SOUTHERN GILA COUNTY BORDERING THE HIGHER WHITE MOUNTAINS.
SOME OF THESE STORMS HAD TOPS TO 50 THSD FT...MEANING SOME UPPER
LEVEL SUPPORT.

OVERALL...MORNING AND EVENING REGIONAL WEATHER BALLOON SOUNDINGS
CONTINUED TO SHOW EXCESSIVE AMOUNTS OF BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE
BELOW 12 THSD FEET. 800-850 MB DEWPOINTS AT OR ABOVE 14 DEG C
DEMARKS THE EXCESSIVE RANGE. THE MORNING TUS AND PHX SOUNDINGS
MEASURED 15 C...AND EVEN WITH AFTERNOON BOUNDARY LAYER MIXING THE
TUS SOUNDING STILL SHOWED A DEWPOINT OF 14 C. WHOA. IN OTHER
WORDS...THERE IS A TREMENDOUS AMOUNT OF POTENTIAL ENERGY STORED IN
THE BOUNDARY LAYER.

IN THE UPPER LEVELS...MODELS HAVE BEEN FAIRLY CONSISTENT IN MOVING
AN OFFSHORE SANTA BARBARA CUTOFF LOW INLAND TOWARD CENTRAL CA
TONIGHT. UPPER LEVEL WINDS IN AZ INCREASE AND BECOME SLIGHTLY
DIFLUENT OVER CENTRAL AZ...INCLUDING PHOENIX BY SUNRISE SATURDAY
MORNING. STRONGER THAN NORMAL WINDS ALOFT ARE USUALLY WORRISOME OVER
A WARM AND VERY MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER...EVEN OVERNIGHT...E.G. SEPT
8TH.

THEREFORE...BECAUSE OF THE ABOVE MENTIONED PARAMETERS...WE FEEL MORE
COMFORTABLE CONTINUING A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHWRS/TSTMS OVER A LARGE
PART OF SOUTH CENTRAL AZ TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING. AND...
BECAUSE OF THE TREMENDOUS AMOUNT OF BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE
REMAINING...EVEN LOW TOPPED SMALL CONVECTION HAS THE POTENTIAL FOR
HEAVY RAINERS.

THE REMAINDER OF SAT AND SAT NIGHT FORECASTS LOOK OK. UPDATES TO
CONTINUE THE SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHWRS/TSTMS OVERNIGHT IN SOUTH CENTRAL
AZ WILL BE ISSUED SHORTLY.

.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...250 PM MST...
LOW PRESSURE SPINNING OFF CALIFORNIA COAST WILL HAVE LITTLE FORWARD
PROPAGATION AND WILL SLOWLY MIGRATE NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE GREAT
BASIN THROUGHOUT THE COMING WEEKEND. WITH HIGH PRESSURE SITUATED
ACROSS NORTHERN MEXICO AND SOUTHERN NEW MEXICO...A SOUTHERLY FLOW
WILL CONTINUE TO STREAM IN SOME MOISTURE FROM THE TROPICS KEEPING
OUR MIXING RATIOS AND DEWPOINTS ELEVATED. CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION
SHOULD BE LIMITED TO HIGHER ELEVATION TERRAIN THROUGH MONDAY WHERE
THE INSTABILITY AND AXIS OF GREATEST DYNAMICS WILL RESIDE. NOT AN
IMPRESSIVE AMOUNT OF INSTABILITY IS FORECAST ACROSS THE LOWER AND
CENTRAL DESERTS THIS WEEKEND BUT CAN NOT RULE OUT A STRAY ISOLATED
SHOWER. FAIRLY MOIST COLUMN OF AIR IN PLACE...PW VALUES REMAINING
AROUND THE 1.5 INCH MARK...ALONG WITH SOME ASCENT FROM THE BOUNDARY
LAYER THROUGH MID-LAYERS /600-700MB OR 10-15K FT/.

MONDAY...AS THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PUSHES NORTHEAST THROUGH THE
GREAT BASIN...HIGH PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP BACK ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST
DESERTS ALLOWING THE TEMPERATURE TO NUDGE UP A DEGREE OR TWO EACH
DAY. THE PREVIOUS SHIFT DID WELL WITH TEMPERATURES SO VERY MINOR
CHANGES WERE MADE...KEEPING TEMPERATURES A HANDFUL OF DEGREES ABOVE
OR BELOW SEASONAL NORMAL /99F FOR PHOENIX AND 101F FOR YUMA/ THROUGH
THE WEEK. WITH A MORE WESTERLY COMPONENT IN THE WIND FLOW
PATTERN...MIXING RATIOS ARE FORECAST TO DROP DOWN AROUND 6-8 G/KG
RANGE FROM SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA INTO THE CENTRAL ARIZONA DESERTS
EARLY NEXT WEEK. EVEN WITH HIGH PRESSURE IN PLACE ACROSS NORTHERN
MEXICO...THE FAVORABLE WIND FLOW AND LACK OF MOISTURE SHOULD WARD
OFF OUR CHANCES FOR ANY STORMS THAT MAY TRY TO FORM. ENSEMBLE AND
DETERMINISTIC MODELS HAVE WELL ADVERTISED THE TROUGH FEATURE SLOWLY
MOVING NORTHWARD ONLY TO BE ABSORBED IN THE LONGWAVE TROUGH PATTERN.
EVEN PAST 115 HRS BOTH ECMWF AND GFS...AND RESPECTIVE ENSEMBLE
MEMBERS...HAVE THE NEXT UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WELL AGREED UPON BY
LATE WEEK THURSDAY/FRIDAY BEGINNING TO IMPACT THE WESTERN COAST.


.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION.../ISSUED 410 AM MST/PDT FRIDAY 19 SEPT/...
TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY...

MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...
WITH RIDGING BEGINNING TO BUILD IN MONDAY ALONG WITH SOME ADDITIONAL
DRYING...TEMPS WILL BE A BIT WARMER AND POPS WILL BE LIMITED TO LOW
END SLIGHT CHANCE OVER THE HIGHER MOUNTAINS OF SOUTH-CENTRAL
ARIZONA. LOOK FOR SLIGHT ADDITIONAL WARMING TUESDAY WITH LITTLE
CHANGE WEDNESDAY ALONG WITH  LITTLE CHANGE IN POPS. BY THURSDAY...A
PACIFIC TROUGH MOVES INLAND AND DRAWS SOME MOISTURE NORTHWARD.
SLIGHT CHANCE AREA WAS BROADENED BUT STILL CONFINED TO THE HIGHER
TERRAIN OF SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA.

&&

.AVIATION...
SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA INCLUDING KPHX...KIWA...AND KSDL...
THROUGH 19Z SAT...SCT-BKN CLDS AOA 10 THSD MSL. LIGHT WIND UNDER 8
KNOTS.


SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA AND SOUTHWEST ARIZONA INCLUDING KIPL AND KBLH...
MAINLY CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WIND TO PREVAIL ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH
19Z SAT.

AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDED TAFS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...
RATHER DRY WESTERLY FLOW TO KEEP SKIES MAINLY CLEAR THROUGH THE
FORECAST PERIOD AT MOST LOCATIONS ACROSS THE REGION...WITH THE
EXCEPTION OF THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA...WHERE
LINGERING MOISTURE MAY ALLOW ISOLATED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS TO
DEVELOP EACH AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING. MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITIES TO
FALL INTO THE 20 TO 30 PERCENT RANGE EACH AFTERNOON...WITH GOOD TO
EXCELLENT OVERNIGHT RECOVERIES. WINDS TO REMAIN MAINLY ON THE LIGHT
SIDE...MAINLY IN THE 5 TO 15 MPH RANGE...WITH THE USUAL DIURNAL
TRENDS TO PREVAIL AT MOST LOCATIONS.


&&

.PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

AZ...NONE.

CA...NONE.

&&

$$

VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/PHOENIX

DISCUSSION...VASQUEZ/DEWEY
AVIATION...VASQUEZ
FIRE WEATHER...MEYERS/PERCHA









000
FXUS65 KPSR 200338
AFDPSR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PHOENIX AZ
840 PM MST FRI SEP 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LINGERING MOISTURE ACROSS THE REGION AND LOW PRESSURE APPROACHING
FROM THE WEST WILL KEEP AT LEAST SLIGHT CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS IN THE FORECAST THROUGH SATURDAY. DRIER AIR WILL
GRADUALLY FILTER INTO THE REGION SUNDAY AND MONDAY FOR A DECLINE IN
STORM CHANCES. WITH LITTLE CHANGE THROUGH WEDNESDAY...STORM CHANCES
REMAIN VERY SLIGHT AND LIMITED TO THE HIGHER MOUNTAINS OF
SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA. TEMPERATURES WILL GRADUALLY WARM AS WELL. AN
APPROACHING PACIFIC WEATHER SYSTEM LATE NEXT WEEK WILL LEAD TO AN
INCREASE IN STORM CHANCES OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF SOUTH-CENTRAL
ARIZONA.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
THE ONLY CONVECTION THIS EVENING AT 03Z SAT WAS OVER THE REMOTE
PARTS OF SOUTHERN GILA COUNTY BORDERING THE HIGHER WHITE MOUNTAINS.
SOME OF THESE STORMS HAD TOPS TO 50 THSD FT...MEANING SOME UPPER
LEVEL SUPPORT.

OVERALL...MORNING AND EVENING REGIONAL WEATHER BALLOON SOUNDINGS
CONTINUED TO SHOW EXCESSIVE AMOUNTS OF BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE
BELOW 12 THSD FEET. 800-850 MB DEWPOINTS AT OR ABOVE 14 DEG C
DEMARKS THE EXCESSIVE RANGE. THE MORNING TUS AND PHX SOUNDINGS
MEASURED 15 C...AND EVEN WITH AFTERNOON BOUNDARY LAYER MIXING THE
TUS SOUNDING STILL SHOWED A DEWPOINT OF 14 C. WHOA. IN OTHER
WORDS...THERE IS A TREMENDOUS AMOUNT OF POTENTIAL ENERGY STORED IN
THE BOUNDARY LAYER.

IN THE UPPER LEVELS...MODELS HAVE BEEN FAIRLY CONSISTENT IN MOVING
AN OFFSHORE SANTA BARBARA CUTOFF LOW INLAND TOWARD CENTRAL CA
TONIGHT. UPPER LEVEL WINDS IN AZ INCREASE AND BECOME SLIGHTLY
DIFLUENT OVER CENTRAL AZ...INCLUDING PHOENIX BY SUNRISE SATURDAY
MORNING. STRONGER THAN NORMAL WINDS ALOFT ARE USUALLY WORRISOME OVER
A WARM AND VERY MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER...EVEN OVERNIGHT...E.G. SEPT
8TH.

THEREFORE...BECAUSE OF THE ABOVE MENTIONED PARAMETERS...WE FEEL MORE
COMFORTABLE CONTINUING A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHWRS/TSTMS OVER A LARGE
PART OF SOUTH CENTRAL AZ TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING. AND...
BECAUSE OF THE TREMENDOUS AMOUNT OF BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE
REMAINING...EVEN LOW TOPPED SMALL CONVECTION HAS THE POTENTIAL FOR
HEAVY RAINERS.

THE REMAINDER OF SAT AND SAT NIGHT FORECASTS LOOK OK. UPDATES TO
CONTINUE THE SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHWRS/TSTMS OVERNIGHT IN SOUTH CENTRAL
AZ WILL BE ISSUED SHORTLY.

.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...250 PM MST...
LOW PRESSURE SPINNING OFF CALIFORNIA COAST WILL HAVE LITTLE FORWARD
PROPAGATION AND WILL SLOWLY MIGRATE NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE GREAT
BASIN THROUGHOUT THE COMING WEEKEND. WITH HIGH PRESSURE SITUATED
ACROSS NORTHERN MEXICO AND SOUTHERN NEW MEXICO...A SOUTHERLY FLOW
WILL CONTINUE TO STREAM IN SOME MOISTURE FROM THE TROPICS KEEPING
OUR MIXING RATIOS AND DEWPOINTS ELEVATED. CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION
SHOULD BE LIMITED TO HIGHER ELEVATION TERRAIN THROUGH MONDAY WHERE
THE INSTABILITY AND AXIS OF GREATEST DYNAMICS WILL RESIDE. NOT AN
IMPRESSIVE AMOUNT OF INSTABILITY IS FORECAST ACROSS THE LOWER AND
CENTRAL DESERTS THIS WEEKEND BUT CAN NOT RULE OUT A STRAY ISOLATED
SHOWER. FAIRLY MOIST COLUMN OF AIR IN PLACE...PW VALUES REMAINING
AROUND THE 1.5 INCH MARK...ALONG WITH SOME ASCENT FROM THE BOUNDARY
LAYER THROUGH MID-LAYERS /600-700MB OR 10-15K FT/.

MONDAY...AS THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PUSHES NORTHEAST THROUGH THE
GREAT BASIN...HIGH PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP BACK ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST
DESERTS ALLOWING THE TEMPERATURE TO NUDGE UP A DEGREE OR TWO EACH
DAY. THE PREVIOUS SHIFT DID WELL WITH TEMPERATURES SO VERY MINOR
CHANGES WERE MADE...KEEPING TEMPERATURES A HANDFUL OF DEGREES ABOVE
OR BELOW SEASONAL NORMAL /99F FOR PHOENIX AND 101F FOR YUMA/ THROUGH
THE WEEK. WITH A MORE WESTERLY COMPONENT IN THE WIND FLOW
PATTERN...MIXING RATIOS ARE FORECAST TO DROP DOWN AROUND 6-8 G/KG
RANGE FROM SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA INTO THE CENTRAL ARIZONA DESERTS
EARLY NEXT WEEK. EVEN WITH HIGH PRESSURE IN PLACE ACROSS NORTHERN
MEXICO...THE FAVORABLE WIND FLOW AND LACK OF MOISTURE SHOULD WARD
OFF OUR CHANCES FOR ANY STORMS THAT MAY TRY TO FORM. ENSEMBLE AND
DETERMINISTIC MODELS HAVE WELL ADVERTISED THE TROUGH FEATURE SLOWLY
MOVING NORTHWARD ONLY TO BE ABSORBED IN THE LONGWAVE TROUGH PATTERN.
EVEN PAST 115 HRS BOTH ECMWF AND GFS...AND RESPECTIVE ENSEMBLE
MEMBERS...HAVE THE NEXT UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WELL AGREED UPON BY
LATE WEEK THURSDAY/FRIDAY BEGINNING TO IMPACT THE WESTERN COAST.


.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION.../ISSUED 410 AM MST/PDT FRIDAY 19 SEPT/...
TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY...

MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...
WITH RIDGING BEGINNING TO BUILD IN MONDAY ALONG WITH SOME ADDITIONAL
DRYING...TEMPS WILL BE A BIT WARMER AND POPS WILL BE LIMITED TO LOW
END SLIGHT CHANCE OVER THE HIGHER MOUNTAINS OF SOUTH-CENTRAL
ARIZONA. LOOK FOR SLIGHT ADDITIONAL WARMING TUESDAY WITH LITTLE
CHANGE WEDNESDAY ALONG WITH  LITTLE CHANGE IN POPS. BY THURSDAY...A
PACIFIC TROUGH MOVES INLAND AND DRAWS SOME MOISTURE NORTHWARD.
SLIGHT CHANCE AREA WAS BROADENED BUT STILL CONFINED TO THE HIGHER
TERRAIN OF SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA.

&&

.AVIATION...
SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA INCLUDING KPHX...KIWA...AND KSDL...
THROUGH 19Z SAT...SCT-BKN CLDS AOA 10 THSD MSL. LIGHT WIND UNDER 8
KNOTS.


SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA AND SOUTHWEST ARIZONA INCLUDING KIPL AND KBLH...
MAINLY CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WIND TO PREVAIL ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH
19Z SAT.

AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDED TAFS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...
RATHER DRY WESTERLY FLOW TO KEEP SKIES MAINLY CLEAR THROUGH THE
FORECAST PERIOD AT MOST LOCATIONS ACROSS THE REGION...WITH THE
EXCEPTION OF THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA...WHERE
LINGERING MOISTURE MAY ALLOW ISOLATED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS TO
DEVELOP EACH AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING. MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITIES TO
FALL INTO THE 20 TO 30 PERCENT RANGE EACH AFTERNOON...WITH GOOD TO
EXCELLENT OVERNIGHT RECOVERIES. WINDS TO REMAIN MAINLY ON THE LIGHT
SIDE...MAINLY IN THE 5 TO 15 MPH RANGE...WITH THE USUAL DIURNAL
TRENDS TO PREVAIL AT MOST LOCATIONS.


&&

.PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

AZ...NONE.

CA...NONE.

&&

$$

VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/PHOENIX

DISCUSSION...VASQUEZ/DEWEY
AVIATION...VASQUEZ
FIRE WEATHER...MEYERS/PERCHA








000
FXUS65 KPSR 200338
AFDPSR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PHOENIX AZ
840 PM MST FRI SEP 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LINGERING MOISTURE ACROSS THE REGION AND LOW PRESSURE APPROACHING
FROM THE WEST WILL KEEP AT LEAST SLIGHT CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS IN THE FORECAST THROUGH SATURDAY. DRIER AIR WILL
GRADUALLY FILTER INTO THE REGION SUNDAY AND MONDAY FOR A DECLINE IN
STORM CHANCES. WITH LITTLE CHANGE THROUGH WEDNESDAY...STORM CHANCES
REMAIN VERY SLIGHT AND LIMITED TO THE HIGHER MOUNTAINS OF
SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA. TEMPERATURES WILL GRADUALLY WARM AS WELL. AN
APPROACHING PACIFIC WEATHER SYSTEM LATE NEXT WEEK WILL LEAD TO AN
INCREASE IN STORM CHANCES OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF SOUTH-CENTRAL
ARIZONA.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
THE ONLY CONVECTION THIS EVENING AT 03Z SAT WAS OVER THE REMOTE
PARTS OF SOUTHERN GILA COUNTY BORDERING THE HIGHER WHITE MOUNTAINS.
SOME OF THESE STORMS HAD TOPS TO 50 THSD FT...MEANING SOME UPPER
LEVEL SUPPORT.

OVERALL...MORNING AND EVENING REGIONAL WEATHER BALLOON SOUNDINGS
CONTINUED TO SHOW EXCESSIVE AMOUNTS OF BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE
BELOW 12 THSD FEET. 800-850 MB DEWPOINTS AT OR ABOVE 14 DEG C
DEMARKS THE EXCESSIVE RANGE. THE MORNING TUS AND PHX SOUNDINGS
MEASURED 15 C...AND EVEN WITH AFTERNOON BOUNDARY LAYER MIXING THE
TUS SOUNDING STILL SHOWED A DEWPOINT OF 14 C. WHOA. IN OTHER
WORDS...THERE IS A TREMENDOUS AMOUNT OF POTENTIAL ENERGY STORED IN
THE BOUNDARY LAYER.

IN THE UPPER LEVELS...MODELS HAVE BEEN FAIRLY CONSISTENT IN MOVING
AN OFFSHORE SANTA BARBARA CUTOFF LOW INLAND TOWARD CENTRAL CA
TONIGHT. UPPER LEVEL WINDS IN AZ INCREASE AND BECOME SLIGHTLY
DIFLUENT OVER CENTRAL AZ...INCLUDING PHOENIX BY SUNRISE SATURDAY
MORNING. STRONGER THAN NORMAL WINDS ALOFT ARE USUALLY WORRISOME OVER
A WARM AND VERY MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER...EVEN OVERNIGHT...E.G. SEPT
8TH.

THEREFORE...BECAUSE OF THE ABOVE MENTIONED PARAMETERS...WE FEEL MORE
COMFORTABLE CONTINUING A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHWRS/TSTMS OVER A LARGE
PART OF SOUTH CENTRAL AZ TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING. AND...
BECAUSE OF THE TREMENDOUS AMOUNT OF BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE
REMAINING...EVEN LOW TOPPED SMALL CONVECTION HAS THE POTENTIAL FOR
HEAVY RAINERS.

THE REMAINDER OF SAT AND SAT NIGHT FORECASTS LOOK OK. UPDATES TO
CONTINUE THE SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHWRS/TSTMS OVERNIGHT IN SOUTH CENTRAL
AZ WILL BE ISSUED SHORTLY.

.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...250 PM MST...
LOW PRESSURE SPINNING OFF CALIFORNIA COAST WILL HAVE LITTLE FORWARD
PROPAGATION AND WILL SLOWLY MIGRATE NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE GREAT
BASIN THROUGHOUT THE COMING WEEKEND. WITH HIGH PRESSURE SITUATED
ACROSS NORTHERN MEXICO AND SOUTHERN NEW MEXICO...A SOUTHERLY FLOW
WILL CONTINUE TO STREAM IN SOME MOISTURE FROM THE TROPICS KEEPING
OUR MIXING RATIOS AND DEWPOINTS ELEVATED. CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION
SHOULD BE LIMITED TO HIGHER ELEVATION TERRAIN THROUGH MONDAY WHERE
THE INSTABILITY AND AXIS OF GREATEST DYNAMICS WILL RESIDE. NOT AN
IMPRESSIVE AMOUNT OF INSTABILITY IS FORECAST ACROSS THE LOWER AND
CENTRAL DESERTS THIS WEEKEND BUT CAN NOT RULE OUT A STRAY ISOLATED
SHOWER. FAIRLY MOIST COLUMN OF AIR IN PLACE...PW VALUES REMAINING
AROUND THE 1.5 INCH MARK...ALONG WITH SOME ASCENT FROM THE BOUNDARY
LAYER THROUGH MID-LAYERS /600-700MB OR 10-15K FT/.

MONDAY...AS THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PUSHES NORTHEAST THROUGH THE
GREAT BASIN...HIGH PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP BACK ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST
DESERTS ALLOWING THE TEMPERATURE TO NUDGE UP A DEGREE OR TWO EACH
DAY. THE PREVIOUS SHIFT DID WELL WITH TEMPERATURES SO VERY MINOR
CHANGES WERE MADE...KEEPING TEMPERATURES A HANDFUL OF DEGREES ABOVE
OR BELOW SEASONAL NORMAL /99F FOR PHOENIX AND 101F FOR YUMA/ THROUGH
THE WEEK. WITH A MORE WESTERLY COMPONENT IN THE WIND FLOW
PATTERN...MIXING RATIOS ARE FORECAST TO DROP DOWN AROUND 6-8 G/KG
RANGE FROM SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA INTO THE CENTRAL ARIZONA DESERTS
EARLY NEXT WEEK. EVEN WITH HIGH PRESSURE IN PLACE ACROSS NORTHERN
MEXICO...THE FAVORABLE WIND FLOW AND LACK OF MOISTURE SHOULD WARD
OFF OUR CHANCES FOR ANY STORMS THAT MAY TRY TO FORM. ENSEMBLE AND
DETERMINISTIC MODELS HAVE WELL ADVERTISED THE TROUGH FEATURE SLOWLY
MOVING NORTHWARD ONLY TO BE ABSORBED IN THE LONGWAVE TROUGH PATTERN.
EVEN PAST 115 HRS BOTH ECMWF AND GFS...AND RESPECTIVE ENSEMBLE
MEMBERS...HAVE THE NEXT UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WELL AGREED UPON BY
LATE WEEK THURSDAY/FRIDAY BEGINNING TO IMPACT THE WESTERN COAST.


.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION.../ISSUED 410 AM MST/PDT FRIDAY 19 SEPT/...
TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY...

MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...
WITH RIDGING BEGINNING TO BUILD IN MONDAY ALONG WITH SOME ADDITIONAL
DRYING...TEMPS WILL BE A BIT WARMER AND POPS WILL BE LIMITED TO LOW
END SLIGHT CHANCE OVER THE HIGHER MOUNTAINS OF SOUTH-CENTRAL
ARIZONA. LOOK FOR SLIGHT ADDITIONAL WARMING TUESDAY WITH LITTLE
CHANGE WEDNESDAY ALONG WITH  LITTLE CHANGE IN POPS. BY THURSDAY...A
PACIFIC TROUGH MOVES INLAND AND DRAWS SOME MOISTURE NORTHWARD.
SLIGHT CHANCE AREA WAS BROADENED BUT STILL CONFINED TO THE HIGHER
TERRAIN OF SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA.

&&

.AVIATION...
SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA INCLUDING KPHX...KIWA...AND KSDL...
THROUGH 19Z SAT...SCT-BKN CLDS AOA 10 THSD MSL. LIGHT WIND UNDER 8
KNOTS.


SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA AND SOUTHWEST ARIZONA INCLUDING KIPL AND KBLH...
MAINLY CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WIND TO PREVAIL ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH
19Z SAT.

AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDED TAFS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...
RATHER DRY WESTERLY FLOW TO KEEP SKIES MAINLY CLEAR THROUGH THE
FORECAST PERIOD AT MOST LOCATIONS ACROSS THE REGION...WITH THE
EXCEPTION OF THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA...WHERE
LINGERING MOISTURE MAY ALLOW ISOLATED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS TO
DEVELOP EACH AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING. MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITIES TO
FALL INTO THE 20 TO 30 PERCENT RANGE EACH AFTERNOON...WITH GOOD TO
EXCELLENT OVERNIGHT RECOVERIES. WINDS TO REMAIN MAINLY ON THE LIGHT
SIDE...MAINLY IN THE 5 TO 15 MPH RANGE...WITH THE USUAL DIURNAL
TRENDS TO PREVAIL AT MOST LOCATIONS.


&&

.PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

AZ...NONE.

CA...NONE.

&&

$$

VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/PHOENIX

DISCUSSION...VASQUEZ/DEWEY
AVIATION...VASQUEZ
FIRE WEATHER...MEYERS/PERCHA








000
FXUS65 KPSR 200338
AFDPSR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PHOENIX AZ
840 PM MST FRI SEP 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LINGERING MOISTURE ACROSS THE REGION AND LOW PRESSURE APPROACHING
FROM THE WEST WILL KEEP AT LEAST SLIGHT CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS IN THE FORECAST THROUGH SATURDAY. DRIER AIR WILL
GRADUALLY FILTER INTO THE REGION SUNDAY AND MONDAY FOR A DECLINE IN
STORM CHANCES. WITH LITTLE CHANGE THROUGH WEDNESDAY...STORM CHANCES
REMAIN VERY SLIGHT AND LIMITED TO THE HIGHER MOUNTAINS OF
SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA. TEMPERATURES WILL GRADUALLY WARM AS WELL. AN
APPROACHING PACIFIC WEATHER SYSTEM LATE NEXT WEEK WILL LEAD TO AN
INCREASE IN STORM CHANCES OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF SOUTH-CENTRAL
ARIZONA.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
THE ONLY CONVECTION THIS EVENING AT 03Z SAT WAS OVER THE REMOTE
PARTS OF SOUTHERN GILA COUNTY BORDERING THE HIGHER WHITE MOUNTAINS.
SOME OF THESE STORMS HAD TOPS TO 50 THSD FT...MEANING SOME UPPER
LEVEL SUPPORT.

OVERALL...MORNING AND EVENING REGIONAL WEATHER BALLOON SOUNDINGS
CONTINUED TO SHOW EXCESSIVE AMOUNTS OF BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE
BELOW 12 THSD FEET. 800-850 MB DEWPOINTS AT OR ABOVE 14 DEG C
DEMARKS THE EXCESSIVE RANGE. THE MORNING TUS AND PHX SOUNDINGS
MEASURED 15 C...AND EVEN WITH AFTERNOON BOUNDARY LAYER MIXING THE
TUS SOUNDING STILL SHOWED A DEWPOINT OF 14 C. WHOA. IN OTHER
WORDS...THERE IS A TREMENDOUS AMOUNT OF POTENTIAL ENERGY STORED IN
THE BOUNDARY LAYER.

IN THE UPPER LEVELS...MODELS HAVE BEEN FAIRLY CONSISTENT IN MOVING
AN OFFSHORE SANTA BARBARA CUTOFF LOW INLAND TOWARD CENTRAL CA
TONIGHT. UPPER LEVEL WINDS IN AZ INCREASE AND BECOME SLIGHTLY
DIFLUENT OVER CENTRAL AZ...INCLUDING PHOENIX BY SUNRISE SATURDAY
MORNING. STRONGER THAN NORMAL WINDS ALOFT ARE USUALLY WORRISOME OVER
A WARM AND VERY MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER...EVEN OVERNIGHT...E.G. SEPT
8TH.

THEREFORE...BECAUSE OF THE ABOVE MENTIONED PARAMETERS...WE FEEL MORE
COMFORTABLE CONTINUING A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHWRS/TSTMS OVER A LARGE
PART OF SOUTH CENTRAL AZ TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING. AND...
BECAUSE OF THE TREMENDOUS AMOUNT OF BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE
REMAINING...EVEN LOW TOPPED SMALL CONVECTION HAS THE POTENTIAL FOR
HEAVY RAINERS.

THE REMAINDER OF SAT AND SAT NIGHT FORECASTS LOOK OK. UPDATES TO
CONTINUE THE SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHWRS/TSTMS OVERNIGHT IN SOUTH CENTRAL
AZ WILL BE ISSUED SHORTLY.

.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...250 PM MST...
LOW PRESSURE SPINNING OFF CALIFORNIA COAST WILL HAVE LITTLE FORWARD
PROPAGATION AND WILL SLOWLY MIGRATE NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE GREAT
BASIN THROUGHOUT THE COMING WEEKEND. WITH HIGH PRESSURE SITUATED
ACROSS NORTHERN MEXICO AND SOUTHERN NEW MEXICO...A SOUTHERLY FLOW
WILL CONTINUE TO STREAM IN SOME MOISTURE FROM THE TROPICS KEEPING
OUR MIXING RATIOS AND DEWPOINTS ELEVATED. CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION
SHOULD BE LIMITED TO HIGHER ELEVATION TERRAIN THROUGH MONDAY WHERE
THE INSTABILITY AND AXIS OF GREATEST DYNAMICS WILL RESIDE. NOT AN
IMPRESSIVE AMOUNT OF INSTABILITY IS FORECAST ACROSS THE LOWER AND
CENTRAL DESERTS THIS WEEKEND BUT CAN NOT RULE OUT A STRAY ISOLATED
SHOWER. FAIRLY MOIST COLUMN OF AIR IN PLACE...PW VALUES REMAINING
AROUND THE 1.5 INCH MARK...ALONG WITH SOME ASCENT FROM THE BOUNDARY
LAYER THROUGH MID-LAYERS /600-700MB OR 10-15K FT/.

MONDAY...AS THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PUSHES NORTHEAST THROUGH THE
GREAT BASIN...HIGH PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP BACK ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST
DESERTS ALLOWING THE TEMPERATURE TO NUDGE UP A DEGREE OR TWO EACH
DAY. THE PREVIOUS SHIFT DID WELL WITH TEMPERATURES SO VERY MINOR
CHANGES WERE MADE...KEEPING TEMPERATURES A HANDFUL OF DEGREES ABOVE
OR BELOW SEASONAL NORMAL /99F FOR PHOENIX AND 101F FOR YUMA/ THROUGH
THE WEEK. WITH A MORE WESTERLY COMPONENT IN THE WIND FLOW
PATTERN...MIXING RATIOS ARE FORECAST TO DROP DOWN AROUND 6-8 G/KG
RANGE FROM SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA INTO THE CENTRAL ARIZONA DESERTS
EARLY NEXT WEEK. EVEN WITH HIGH PRESSURE IN PLACE ACROSS NORTHERN
MEXICO...THE FAVORABLE WIND FLOW AND LACK OF MOISTURE SHOULD WARD
OFF OUR CHANCES FOR ANY STORMS THAT MAY TRY TO FORM. ENSEMBLE AND
DETERMINISTIC MODELS HAVE WELL ADVERTISED THE TROUGH FEATURE SLOWLY
MOVING NORTHWARD ONLY TO BE ABSORBED IN THE LONGWAVE TROUGH PATTERN.
EVEN PAST 115 HRS BOTH ECMWF AND GFS...AND RESPECTIVE ENSEMBLE
MEMBERS...HAVE THE NEXT UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WELL AGREED UPON BY
LATE WEEK THURSDAY/FRIDAY BEGINNING TO IMPACT THE WESTERN COAST.


.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION.../ISSUED 410 AM MST/PDT FRIDAY 19 SEPT/...
TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY...

MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...
WITH RIDGING BEGINNING TO BUILD IN MONDAY ALONG WITH SOME ADDITIONAL
DRYING...TEMPS WILL BE A BIT WARMER AND POPS WILL BE LIMITED TO LOW
END SLIGHT CHANCE OVER THE HIGHER MOUNTAINS OF SOUTH-CENTRAL
ARIZONA. LOOK FOR SLIGHT ADDITIONAL WARMING TUESDAY WITH LITTLE
CHANGE WEDNESDAY ALONG WITH  LITTLE CHANGE IN POPS. BY THURSDAY...A
PACIFIC TROUGH MOVES INLAND AND DRAWS SOME MOISTURE NORTHWARD.
SLIGHT CHANCE AREA WAS BROADENED BUT STILL CONFINED TO THE HIGHER
TERRAIN OF SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA.

&&

.AVIATION...
SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA INCLUDING KPHX...KIWA...AND KSDL...
THROUGH 19Z SAT...SCT-BKN CLDS AOA 10 THSD MSL. LIGHT WIND UNDER 8
KNOTS.


SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA AND SOUTHWEST ARIZONA INCLUDING KIPL AND KBLH...
MAINLY CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WIND TO PREVAIL ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH
19Z SAT.

AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDED TAFS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...
RATHER DRY WESTERLY FLOW TO KEEP SKIES MAINLY CLEAR THROUGH THE
FORECAST PERIOD AT MOST LOCATIONS ACROSS THE REGION...WITH THE
EXCEPTION OF THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA...WHERE
LINGERING MOISTURE MAY ALLOW ISOLATED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS TO
DEVELOP EACH AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING. MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITIES TO
FALL INTO THE 20 TO 30 PERCENT RANGE EACH AFTERNOON...WITH GOOD TO
EXCELLENT OVERNIGHT RECOVERIES. WINDS TO REMAIN MAINLY ON THE LIGHT
SIDE...MAINLY IN THE 5 TO 15 MPH RANGE...WITH THE USUAL DIURNAL
TRENDS TO PREVAIL AT MOST LOCATIONS.


&&

.PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

AZ...NONE.

CA...NONE.

&&

$$

VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/PHOENIX

DISCUSSION...VASQUEZ/DEWEY
AVIATION...VASQUEZ
FIRE WEATHER...MEYERS/PERCHA








000
FXUS65 KPSR 200338
AFDPSR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PHOENIX AZ
840 PM MST FRI SEP 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LINGERING MOISTURE ACROSS THE REGION AND LOW PRESSURE APPROACHING
FROM THE WEST WILL KEEP AT LEAST SLIGHT CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS IN THE FORECAST THROUGH SATURDAY. DRIER AIR WILL
GRADUALLY FILTER INTO THE REGION SUNDAY AND MONDAY FOR A DECLINE IN
STORM CHANCES. WITH LITTLE CHANGE THROUGH WEDNESDAY...STORM CHANCES
REMAIN VERY SLIGHT AND LIMITED TO THE HIGHER MOUNTAINS OF
SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA. TEMPERATURES WILL GRADUALLY WARM AS WELL. AN
APPROACHING PACIFIC WEATHER SYSTEM LATE NEXT WEEK WILL LEAD TO AN
INCREASE IN STORM CHANCES OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF SOUTH-CENTRAL
ARIZONA.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
THE ONLY CONVECTION THIS EVENING AT 03Z SAT WAS OVER THE REMOTE
PARTS OF SOUTHERN GILA COUNTY BORDERING THE HIGHER WHITE MOUNTAINS.
SOME OF THESE STORMS HAD TOPS TO 50 THSD FT...MEANING SOME UPPER
LEVEL SUPPORT.

OVERALL...MORNING AND EVENING REGIONAL WEATHER BALLOON SOUNDINGS
CONTINUED TO SHOW EXCESSIVE AMOUNTS OF BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE
BELOW 12 THSD FEET. 800-850 MB DEWPOINTS AT OR ABOVE 14 DEG C
DEMARKS THE EXCESSIVE RANGE. THE MORNING TUS AND PHX SOUNDINGS
MEASURED 15 C...AND EVEN WITH AFTERNOON BOUNDARY LAYER MIXING THE
TUS SOUNDING STILL SHOWED A DEWPOINT OF 14 C. WHOA. IN OTHER
WORDS...THERE IS A TREMENDOUS AMOUNT OF POTENTIAL ENERGY STORED IN
THE BOUNDARY LAYER.

IN THE UPPER LEVELS...MODELS HAVE BEEN FAIRLY CONSISTENT IN MOVING
AN OFFSHORE SANTA BARBARA CUTOFF LOW INLAND TOWARD CENTRAL CA
TONIGHT. UPPER LEVEL WINDS IN AZ INCREASE AND BECOME SLIGHTLY
DIFLUENT OVER CENTRAL AZ...INCLUDING PHOENIX BY SUNRISE SATURDAY
MORNING. STRONGER THAN NORMAL WINDS ALOFT ARE USUALLY WORRISOME OVER
A WARM AND VERY MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER...EVEN OVERNIGHT...E.G. SEPT
8TH.

THEREFORE...BECAUSE OF THE ABOVE MENTIONED PARAMETERS...WE FEEL MORE
COMFORTABLE CONTINUING A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHWRS/TSTMS OVER A LARGE
PART OF SOUTH CENTRAL AZ TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING. AND...
BECAUSE OF THE TREMENDOUS AMOUNT OF BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE
REMAINING...EVEN LOW TOPPED SMALL CONVECTION HAS THE POTENTIAL FOR
HEAVY RAINERS.

THE REMAINDER OF SAT AND SAT NIGHT FORECASTS LOOK OK. UPDATES TO
CONTINUE THE SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHWRS/TSTMS OVERNIGHT IN SOUTH CENTRAL
AZ WILL BE ISSUED SHORTLY.

.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...250 PM MST...
LOW PRESSURE SPINNING OFF CALIFORNIA COAST WILL HAVE LITTLE FORWARD
PROPAGATION AND WILL SLOWLY MIGRATE NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE GREAT
BASIN THROUGHOUT THE COMING WEEKEND. WITH HIGH PRESSURE SITUATED
ACROSS NORTHERN MEXICO AND SOUTHERN NEW MEXICO...A SOUTHERLY FLOW
WILL CONTINUE TO STREAM IN SOME MOISTURE FROM THE TROPICS KEEPING
OUR MIXING RATIOS AND DEWPOINTS ELEVATED. CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION
SHOULD BE LIMITED TO HIGHER ELEVATION TERRAIN THROUGH MONDAY WHERE
THE INSTABILITY AND AXIS OF GREATEST DYNAMICS WILL RESIDE. NOT AN
IMPRESSIVE AMOUNT OF INSTABILITY IS FORECAST ACROSS THE LOWER AND
CENTRAL DESERTS THIS WEEKEND BUT CAN NOT RULE OUT A STRAY ISOLATED
SHOWER. FAIRLY MOIST COLUMN OF AIR IN PLACE...PW VALUES REMAINING
AROUND THE 1.5 INCH MARK...ALONG WITH SOME ASCENT FROM THE BOUNDARY
LAYER THROUGH MID-LAYERS /600-700MB OR 10-15K FT/.

MONDAY...AS THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PUSHES NORTHEAST THROUGH THE
GREAT BASIN...HIGH PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP BACK ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST
DESERTS ALLOWING THE TEMPERATURE TO NUDGE UP A DEGREE OR TWO EACH
DAY. THE PREVIOUS SHIFT DID WELL WITH TEMPERATURES SO VERY MINOR
CHANGES WERE MADE...KEEPING TEMPERATURES A HANDFUL OF DEGREES ABOVE
OR BELOW SEASONAL NORMAL /99F FOR PHOENIX AND 101F FOR YUMA/ THROUGH
THE WEEK. WITH A MORE WESTERLY COMPONENT IN THE WIND FLOW
PATTERN...MIXING RATIOS ARE FORECAST TO DROP DOWN AROUND 6-8 G/KG
RANGE FROM SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA INTO THE CENTRAL ARIZONA DESERTS
EARLY NEXT WEEK. EVEN WITH HIGH PRESSURE IN PLACE ACROSS NORTHERN
MEXICO...THE FAVORABLE WIND FLOW AND LACK OF MOISTURE SHOULD WARD
OFF OUR CHANCES FOR ANY STORMS THAT MAY TRY TO FORM. ENSEMBLE AND
DETERMINISTIC MODELS HAVE WELL ADVERTISED THE TROUGH FEATURE SLOWLY
MOVING NORTHWARD ONLY TO BE ABSORBED IN THE LONGWAVE TROUGH PATTERN.
EVEN PAST 115 HRS BOTH ECMWF AND GFS...AND RESPECTIVE ENSEMBLE
MEMBERS...HAVE THE NEXT UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WELL AGREED UPON BY
LATE WEEK THURSDAY/FRIDAY BEGINNING TO IMPACT THE WESTERN COAST.


.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION.../ISSUED 410 AM MST/PDT FRIDAY 19 SEPT/...
TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY...

MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...
WITH RIDGING BEGINNING TO BUILD IN MONDAY ALONG WITH SOME ADDITIONAL
DRYING...TEMPS WILL BE A BIT WARMER AND POPS WILL BE LIMITED TO LOW
END SLIGHT CHANCE OVER THE HIGHER MOUNTAINS OF SOUTH-CENTRAL
ARIZONA. LOOK FOR SLIGHT ADDITIONAL WARMING TUESDAY WITH LITTLE
CHANGE WEDNESDAY ALONG WITH  LITTLE CHANGE IN POPS. BY THURSDAY...A
PACIFIC TROUGH MOVES INLAND AND DRAWS SOME MOISTURE NORTHWARD.
SLIGHT CHANCE AREA WAS BROADENED BUT STILL CONFINED TO THE HIGHER
TERRAIN OF SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA.

&&

.AVIATION...
SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA INCLUDING KPHX...KIWA...AND KSDL...
THROUGH 19Z SAT...SCT-BKN CLDS AOA 10 THSD MSL. LIGHT WIND UNDER 8
KNOTS.


SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA AND SOUTHWEST ARIZONA INCLUDING KIPL AND KBLH...
MAINLY CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WIND TO PREVAIL ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH
19Z SAT.

AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDED TAFS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...
RATHER DRY WESTERLY FLOW TO KEEP SKIES MAINLY CLEAR THROUGH THE
FORECAST PERIOD AT MOST LOCATIONS ACROSS THE REGION...WITH THE
EXCEPTION OF THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA...WHERE
LINGERING MOISTURE MAY ALLOW ISOLATED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS TO
DEVELOP EACH AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING. MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITIES TO
FALL INTO THE 20 TO 30 PERCENT RANGE EACH AFTERNOON...WITH GOOD TO
EXCELLENT OVERNIGHT RECOVERIES. WINDS TO REMAIN MAINLY ON THE LIGHT
SIDE...MAINLY IN THE 5 TO 15 MPH RANGE...WITH THE USUAL DIURNAL
TRENDS TO PREVAIL AT MOST LOCATIONS.


&&

.PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

AZ...NONE.

CA...NONE.

&&

$$

VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/PHOENIX

DISCUSSION...VASQUEZ/DEWEY
AVIATION...VASQUEZ
FIRE WEATHER...MEYERS/PERCHA








000
FXUS65 KPSR 200338
AFDPSR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PHOENIX AZ
840 PM MST FRI SEP 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LINGERING MOISTURE ACROSS THE REGION AND LOW PRESSURE APPROACHING
FROM THE WEST WILL KEEP AT LEAST SLIGHT CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS IN THE FORECAST THROUGH SATURDAY. DRIER AIR WILL
GRADUALLY FILTER INTO THE REGION SUNDAY AND MONDAY FOR A DECLINE IN
STORM CHANCES. WITH LITTLE CHANGE THROUGH WEDNESDAY...STORM CHANCES
REMAIN VERY SLIGHT AND LIMITED TO THE HIGHER MOUNTAINS OF
SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA. TEMPERATURES WILL GRADUALLY WARM AS WELL. AN
APPROACHING PACIFIC WEATHER SYSTEM LATE NEXT WEEK WILL LEAD TO AN
INCREASE IN STORM CHANCES OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF SOUTH-CENTRAL
ARIZONA.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
THE ONLY CONVECTION THIS EVENING AT 03Z SAT WAS OVER THE REMOTE
PARTS OF SOUTHERN GILA COUNTY BORDERING THE HIGHER WHITE MOUNTAINS.
SOME OF THESE STORMS HAD TOPS TO 50 THSD FT...MEANING SOME UPPER
LEVEL SUPPORT.

OVERALL...MORNING AND EVENING REGIONAL WEATHER BALLOON SOUNDINGS
CONTINUED TO SHOW EXCESSIVE AMOUNTS OF BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE
BELOW 12 THSD FEET. 800-850 MB DEWPOINTS AT OR ABOVE 14 DEG C
DEMARKS THE EXCESSIVE RANGE. THE MORNING TUS AND PHX SOUNDINGS
MEASURED 15 C...AND EVEN WITH AFTERNOON BOUNDARY LAYER MIXING THE
TUS SOUNDING STILL SHOWED A DEWPOINT OF 14 C. WHOA. IN OTHER
WORDS...THERE IS A TREMENDOUS AMOUNT OF POTENTIAL ENERGY STORED IN
THE BOUNDARY LAYER.

IN THE UPPER LEVELS...MODELS HAVE BEEN FAIRLY CONSISTENT IN MOVING
AN OFFSHORE SANTA BARBARA CUTOFF LOW INLAND TOWARD CENTRAL CA
TONIGHT. UPPER LEVEL WINDS IN AZ INCREASE AND BECOME SLIGHTLY
DIFLUENT OVER CENTRAL AZ...INCLUDING PHOENIX BY SUNRISE SATURDAY
MORNING. STRONGER THAN NORMAL WINDS ALOFT ARE USUALLY WORRISOME OVER
A WARM AND VERY MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER...EVEN OVERNIGHT...E.G. SEPT
8TH.

THEREFORE...BECAUSE OF THE ABOVE MENTIONED PARAMETERS...WE FEEL MORE
COMFORTABLE CONTINUING A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHWRS/TSTMS OVER A LARGE
PART OF SOUTH CENTRAL AZ TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING. AND...
BECAUSE OF THE TREMENDOUS AMOUNT OF BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE
REMAINING...EVEN LOW TOPPED SMALL CONVECTION HAS THE POTENTIAL FOR
HEAVY RAINERS.

THE REMAINDER OF SAT AND SAT NIGHT FORECASTS LOOK OK. UPDATES TO
CONTINUE THE SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHWRS/TSTMS OVERNIGHT IN SOUTH CENTRAL
AZ WILL BE ISSUED SHORTLY.

.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...250 PM MST...
LOW PRESSURE SPINNING OFF CALIFORNIA COAST WILL HAVE LITTLE FORWARD
PROPAGATION AND WILL SLOWLY MIGRATE NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE GREAT
BASIN THROUGHOUT THE COMING WEEKEND. WITH HIGH PRESSURE SITUATED
ACROSS NORTHERN MEXICO AND SOUTHERN NEW MEXICO...A SOUTHERLY FLOW
WILL CONTINUE TO STREAM IN SOME MOISTURE FROM THE TROPICS KEEPING
OUR MIXING RATIOS AND DEWPOINTS ELEVATED. CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION
SHOULD BE LIMITED TO HIGHER ELEVATION TERRAIN THROUGH MONDAY WHERE
THE INSTABILITY AND AXIS OF GREATEST DYNAMICS WILL RESIDE. NOT AN
IMPRESSIVE AMOUNT OF INSTABILITY IS FORECAST ACROSS THE LOWER AND
CENTRAL DESERTS THIS WEEKEND BUT CAN NOT RULE OUT A STRAY ISOLATED
SHOWER. FAIRLY MOIST COLUMN OF AIR IN PLACE...PW VALUES REMAINING
AROUND THE 1.5 INCH MARK...ALONG WITH SOME ASCENT FROM THE BOUNDARY
LAYER THROUGH MID-LAYERS /600-700MB OR 10-15K FT/.

MONDAY...AS THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PUSHES NORTHEAST THROUGH THE
GREAT BASIN...HIGH PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP BACK ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST
DESERTS ALLOWING THE TEMPERATURE TO NUDGE UP A DEGREE OR TWO EACH
DAY. THE PREVIOUS SHIFT DID WELL WITH TEMPERATURES SO VERY MINOR
CHANGES WERE MADE...KEEPING TEMPERATURES A HANDFUL OF DEGREES ABOVE
OR BELOW SEASONAL NORMAL /99F FOR PHOENIX AND 101F FOR YUMA/ THROUGH
THE WEEK. WITH A MORE WESTERLY COMPONENT IN THE WIND FLOW
PATTERN...MIXING RATIOS ARE FORECAST TO DROP DOWN AROUND 6-8 G/KG
RANGE FROM SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA INTO THE CENTRAL ARIZONA DESERTS
EARLY NEXT WEEK. EVEN WITH HIGH PRESSURE IN PLACE ACROSS NORTHERN
MEXICO...THE FAVORABLE WIND FLOW AND LACK OF MOISTURE SHOULD WARD
OFF OUR CHANCES FOR ANY STORMS THAT MAY TRY TO FORM. ENSEMBLE AND
DETERMINISTIC MODELS HAVE WELL ADVERTISED THE TROUGH FEATURE SLOWLY
MOVING NORTHWARD ONLY TO BE ABSORBED IN THE LONGWAVE TROUGH PATTERN.
EVEN PAST 115 HRS BOTH ECMWF AND GFS...AND RESPECTIVE ENSEMBLE
MEMBERS...HAVE THE NEXT UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WELL AGREED UPON BY
LATE WEEK THURSDAY/FRIDAY BEGINNING TO IMPACT THE WESTERN COAST.


.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION.../ISSUED 410 AM MST/PDT FRIDAY 19 SEPT/...
TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY...

MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...
WITH RIDGING BEGINNING TO BUILD IN MONDAY ALONG WITH SOME ADDITIONAL
DRYING...TEMPS WILL BE A BIT WARMER AND POPS WILL BE LIMITED TO LOW
END SLIGHT CHANCE OVER THE HIGHER MOUNTAINS OF SOUTH-CENTRAL
ARIZONA. LOOK FOR SLIGHT ADDITIONAL WARMING TUESDAY WITH LITTLE
CHANGE WEDNESDAY ALONG WITH  LITTLE CHANGE IN POPS. BY THURSDAY...A
PACIFIC TROUGH MOVES INLAND AND DRAWS SOME MOISTURE NORTHWARD.
SLIGHT CHANCE AREA WAS BROADENED BUT STILL CONFINED TO THE HIGHER
TERRAIN OF SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA.

&&

.AVIATION...
SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA INCLUDING KPHX...KIWA...AND KSDL...
THROUGH 19Z SAT...SCT-BKN CLDS AOA 10 THSD MSL. LIGHT WIND UNDER 8
KNOTS.


SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA AND SOUTHWEST ARIZONA INCLUDING KIPL AND KBLH...
MAINLY CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WIND TO PREVAIL ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH
19Z SAT.

AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDED TAFS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...
RATHER DRY WESTERLY FLOW TO KEEP SKIES MAINLY CLEAR THROUGH THE
FORECAST PERIOD AT MOST LOCATIONS ACROSS THE REGION...WITH THE
EXCEPTION OF THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA...WHERE
LINGERING MOISTURE MAY ALLOW ISOLATED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS TO
DEVELOP EACH AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING. MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITIES TO
FALL INTO THE 20 TO 30 PERCENT RANGE EACH AFTERNOON...WITH GOOD TO
EXCELLENT OVERNIGHT RECOVERIES. WINDS TO REMAIN MAINLY ON THE LIGHT
SIDE...MAINLY IN THE 5 TO 15 MPH RANGE...WITH THE USUAL DIURNAL
TRENDS TO PREVAIL AT MOST LOCATIONS.


&&

.PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

AZ...NONE.

CA...NONE.

&&

$$

VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/PHOENIX

DISCUSSION...VASQUEZ/DEWEY
AVIATION...VASQUEZ
FIRE WEATHER...MEYERS/PERCHA








000
FXUS65 KTWC 200329
AFDTWC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ
827 PM MST FRI SEP 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...LINGERING MOISTURE WILL MAINTAIN A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS INTO THIS WEEKEND. HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT COULD PROVIDE
REDUCED RAINFALL CHANCES NEXT WEEK. EXPECT GRADUALLY WARMER DAYTIME
TEMPERATURES INTO THIS WEEKEND.

&&

.DISCUSSION...MADE SOME MINOR CHANGES TO THE POP FORECAST MAINLY TO
LOWER VALUES BUT STILL KEEPING A SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN OVERNIGHT PER
MODELS. OTHERWISE...THE FORECAST LOOKED ON TRACK WITH LINGERING
MOISTURE OVER THE WEEKEND KEEPING RAIN CHANCES IN THE FORECAST.
PLEASE REFER TO THE PREVIOUS DISCUSSION IN THIS PRODUCT FOR MORE
DETAILS.

&&

.AVIATION...VALID THRU 21/06Z.
EXPECT ISOLATED -SHRA/-TSRA WILL OCCUR THRU SATURDAY EVENING.
SURFACE WINDS WILL BE MAINLY LESS THAN 10 KTS. AVIATION DISCUSSION
NOT UPDATED FOR TAF AMENDMENTS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...MOISTURE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE INTO NEXT
WEEK...FUELING CHANCES FOR ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. TUE AND WED SHOULD BE THE LEAST ACTIVE DAYS WITH AN
UPTICK FORECAST BY THURSDAY.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...POP FORECASTS FOR THE WEEKEND AND INTO MONDAY
SHOULD BE A NEARLY CARBON COPY FORECAST EACH DAY...WITH ISOLATED
ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FOR THE FAR WESTERN DESERTS AND
SCATTERED TYPE POPS FOR THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN ZONES. BY TUESDAY
AND WEDNESDAY RAIN CHANCES WILL DECREASE WITH SHOWERS AND STORMS
CONFINED TO MAINLY AREAS ALONG THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER AND NEW
MEXICO BORDER. THEREAFTER...RAIN CHANCES INCREASE AS A PACIFIC
TROUGH MOVES BY TO OUR NORTH.

&&

.TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...YOUTUBE...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/TUCSON






000
FXUS65 KTWC 200329
AFDTWC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ
827 PM MST FRI SEP 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...LINGERING MOISTURE WILL MAINTAIN A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS INTO THIS WEEKEND. HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT COULD PROVIDE
REDUCED RAINFALL CHANCES NEXT WEEK. EXPECT GRADUALLY WARMER DAYTIME
TEMPERATURES INTO THIS WEEKEND.

&&

.DISCUSSION...MADE SOME MINOR CHANGES TO THE POP FORECAST MAINLY TO
LOWER VALUES BUT STILL KEEPING A SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN OVERNIGHT PER
MODELS. OTHERWISE...THE FORECAST LOOKED ON TRACK WITH LINGERING
MOISTURE OVER THE WEEKEND KEEPING RAIN CHANCES IN THE FORECAST.
PLEASE REFER TO THE PREVIOUS DISCUSSION IN THIS PRODUCT FOR MORE
DETAILS.

&&

.AVIATION...VALID THRU 21/06Z.
EXPECT ISOLATED -SHRA/-TSRA WILL OCCUR THRU SATURDAY EVENING.
SURFACE WINDS WILL BE MAINLY LESS THAN 10 KTS. AVIATION DISCUSSION
NOT UPDATED FOR TAF AMENDMENTS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...MOISTURE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE INTO NEXT
WEEK...FUELING CHANCES FOR ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. TUE AND WED SHOULD BE THE LEAST ACTIVE DAYS WITH AN
UPTICK FORECAST BY THURSDAY.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...POP FORECASTS FOR THE WEEKEND AND INTO MONDAY
SHOULD BE A NEARLY CARBON COPY FORECAST EACH DAY...WITH ISOLATED
ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FOR THE FAR WESTERN DESERTS AND
SCATTERED TYPE POPS FOR THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN ZONES. BY TUESDAY
AND WEDNESDAY RAIN CHANCES WILL DECREASE WITH SHOWERS AND STORMS
CONFINED TO MAINLY AREAS ALONG THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER AND NEW
MEXICO BORDER. THEREAFTER...RAIN CHANCES INCREASE AS A PACIFIC
TROUGH MOVES BY TO OUR NORTH.

&&

.TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...YOUTUBE...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/TUCSON






000
FXUS65 KTWC 200329
AFDTWC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ
827 PM MST FRI SEP 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...LINGERING MOISTURE WILL MAINTAIN A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS INTO THIS WEEKEND. HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT COULD PROVIDE
REDUCED RAINFALL CHANCES NEXT WEEK. EXPECT GRADUALLY WARMER DAYTIME
TEMPERATURES INTO THIS WEEKEND.

&&

.DISCUSSION...MADE SOME MINOR CHANGES TO THE POP FORECAST MAINLY TO
LOWER VALUES BUT STILL KEEPING A SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN OVERNIGHT PER
MODELS. OTHERWISE...THE FORECAST LOOKED ON TRACK WITH LINGERING
MOISTURE OVER THE WEEKEND KEEPING RAIN CHANCES IN THE FORECAST.
PLEASE REFER TO THE PREVIOUS DISCUSSION IN THIS PRODUCT FOR MORE
DETAILS.

&&

.AVIATION...VALID THRU 21/06Z.
EXPECT ISOLATED -SHRA/-TSRA WILL OCCUR THRU SATURDAY EVENING.
SURFACE WINDS WILL BE MAINLY LESS THAN 10 KTS. AVIATION DISCUSSION
NOT UPDATED FOR TAF AMENDMENTS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...MOISTURE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE INTO NEXT
WEEK...FUELING CHANCES FOR ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. TUE AND WED SHOULD BE THE LEAST ACTIVE DAYS WITH AN
UPTICK FORECAST BY THURSDAY.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...POP FORECASTS FOR THE WEEKEND AND INTO MONDAY
SHOULD BE A NEARLY CARBON COPY FORECAST EACH DAY...WITH ISOLATED
ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FOR THE FAR WESTERN DESERTS AND
SCATTERED TYPE POPS FOR THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN ZONES. BY TUESDAY
AND WEDNESDAY RAIN CHANCES WILL DECREASE WITH SHOWERS AND STORMS
CONFINED TO MAINLY AREAS ALONG THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER AND NEW
MEXICO BORDER. THEREAFTER...RAIN CHANCES INCREASE AS A PACIFIC
TROUGH MOVES BY TO OUR NORTH.

&&

.TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...YOUTUBE...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/TUCSON






000
FXUS65 KTWC 200329
AFDTWC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ
827 PM MST FRI SEP 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...LINGERING MOISTURE WILL MAINTAIN A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS INTO THIS WEEKEND. HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT COULD PROVIDE
REDUCED RAINFALL CHANCES NEXT WEEK. EXPECT GRADUALLY WARMER DAYTIME
TEMPERATURES INTO THIS WEEKEND.

&&

.DISCUSSION...MADE SOME MINOR CHANGES TO THE POP FORECAST MAINLY TO
LOWER VALUES BUT STILL KEEPING A SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN OVERNIGHT PER
MODELS. OTHERWISE...THE FORECAST LOOKED ON TRACK WITH LINGERING
MOISTURE OVER THE WEEKEND KEEPING RAIN CHANCES IN THE FORECAST.
PLEASE REFER TO THE PREVIOUS DISCUSSION IN THIS PRODUCT FOR MORE
DETAILS.

&&

.AVIATION...VALID THRU 21/06Z.
EXPECT ISOLATED -SHRA/-TSRA WILL OCCUR THRU SATURDAY EVENING.
SURFACE WINDS WILL BE MAINLY LESS THAN 10 KTS. AVIATION DISCUSSION
NOT UPDATED FOR TAF AMENDMENTS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...MOISTURE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE INTO NEXT
WEEK...FUELING CHANCES FOR ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. TUE AND WED SHOULD BE THE LEAST ACTIVE DAYS WITH AN
UPTICK FORECAST BY THURSDAY.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...POP FORECASTS FOR THE WEEKEND AND INTO MONDAY
SHOULD BE A NEARLY CARBON COPY FORECAST EACH DAY...WITH ISOLATED
ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FOR THE FAR WESTERN DESERTS AND
SCATTERED TYPE POPS FOR THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN ZONES. BY TUESDAY
AND WEDNESDAY RAIN CHANCES WILL DECREASE WITH SHOWERS AND STORMS
CONFINED TO MAINLY AREAS ALONG THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER AND NEW
MEXICO BORDER. THEREAFTER...RAIN CHANCES INCREASE AS A PACIFIC
TROUGH MOVES BY TO OUR NORTH.

&&

.TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...YOUTUBE...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/TUCSON






000
FXUS65 KFGZ 200243
AFDFGZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ
745 PM MST FRI SEP 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
EXPECT FAIR WEATHER TONIGHT. AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE FROM
SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA INTO NEVADA THIS WEEKEND. THIS FEATURE WILL
INCREASE THE CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER NORTHERN
ARIZONA BOTH SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO
THE REGION ON MONDAY WITH MAINLY DRY WEATHER AND WARMER DAYTIME
TEMPS FORECAST.

&&

RADAR SHOWS THIS AFTERNOONS SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY HAS ENDED...WITH CLEAR SKIES TAKING HOLD THIS EVENING.
THUS HAVE MASSAGED TONIGHT GRIDS TO FAIR WEATHER AND BOOSTED SATURDAY
MORNINGS MINS UP CLOSER TO WHAT WE SAW THIS MORNING. GRIDS AND
TEXT UPDATED PER TRENDS.

FOR SATURDAY...GREATER STORM COVERAGE IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE
NORTHLAND SATURDAY...DURING THE DAY AND INTO THE EVENING.
A MOIST LOW AND MID LEVEL FLOW STARTS SOUTHEASTERLY SATURDAY MORNING
AND BECOMES SOUTHERLY LATE IN THE DAY WITH INCREASING SPEEDS. THIS
SPEED INCREASE IS AHEAD OF THE SOCAL UPPER LOW THAT WILL BE MOVING
THROUGH THE GREAT BASIN THIS WEEKEND. WEAK LIFT AND INCREASING SHEAR
ACTING ON AVAILABLE MOISTURE SHOULD KEEP CONVECTION GOING THROUGH
SATURDAY EVENING. A FEW STORMS MAY BE SEVERE WITH HAIL AND STRONG
WINDS.

ON SUNDAY...PROGS BRING GOOD MID LEVEL COOLING INTO NW ARIZONA BUT
AT THE SAME TIME ARE PUSHING THE MONSOON MOISTURE PLUME EASTWARD
THROUGH THE DAY. IT APPEARS ANY STRONG STORM THREAT WILL BE
ACROSS THE NAVAJO NATION AND SRN APACHE COUNTY BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON.

MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...WARM HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE DESERT
SOUTHWEST WITH A DRIER WESTERLY FLOW. A VERY STABLE AIRMASS OVERHEAD
WILL SHARPLY LIMIT DAYTIME CONVECTION WITH FAIR NIGHTS EXPECTED.
MIN TEMPS TO RETURN TO NORMAL WHICH IS AROUND 10 DEGREES COOLER THAN
WHAT WE SHOULD SEE SATURDAY MORNING.

&&

.AVIATION...
FOR THE 06Z PACKAGE...FAIR WEATHER THROUGH 17Z SAT. AFT 17Z SAT...
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP WITH EMBEDDED IFR/MVFR
CONDITIONS IN THE STRONGER STORMS. STORM ACTIVITY CONTINUE THROUGH
06Z SUNDAY. AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDMENTS.

&&

.FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC.........DL
AVIATION.......DL

FOR NORTHERN ARIZONA WEATHER INFORMATION VISIT
WEATHER.GOV/FLAGSTAFF







000
FXUS65 KFGZ 200243
AFDFGZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ
745 PM MST FRI SEP 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
EXPECT FAIR WEATHER TONIGHT. AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE FROM
SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA INTO NEVADA THIS WEEKEND. THIS FEATURE WILL
INCREASE THE CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER NORTHERN
ARIZONA BOTH SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO
THE REGION ON MONDAY WITH MAINLY DRY WEATHER AND WARMER DAYTIME
TEMPS FORECAST.

&&

RADAR SHOWS THIS AFTERNOONS SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY HAS ENDED...WITH CLEAR SKIES TAKING HOLD THIS EVENING.
THUS HAVE MASSAGED TONIGHT GRIDS TO FAIR WEATHER AND BOOSTED SATURDAY
MORNINGS MINS UP CLOSER TO WHAT WE SAW THIS MORNING. GRIDS AND
TEXT UPDATED PER TRENDS.

FOR SATURDAY...GREATER STORM COVERAGE IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE
NORTHLAND SATURDAY...DURING THE DAY AND INTO THE EVENING.
A MOIST LOW AND MID LEVEL FLOW STARTS SOUTHEASTERLY SATURDAY MORNING
AND BECOMES SOUTHERLY LATE IN THE DAY WITH INCREASING SPEEDS. THIS
SPEED INCREASE IS AHEAD OF THE SOCAL UPPER LOW THAT WILL BE MOVING
THROUGH THE GREAT BASIN THIS WEEKEND. WEAK LIFT AND INCREASING SHEAR
ACTING ON AVAILABLE MOISTURE SHOULD KEEP CONVECTION GOING THROUGH
SATURDAY EVENING. A FEW STORMS MAY BE SEVERE WITH HAIL AND STRONG
WINDS.

ON SUNDAY...PROGS BRING GOOD MID LEVEL COOLING INTO NW ARIZONA BUT
AT THE SAME TIME ARE PUSHING THE MONSOON MOISTURE PLUME EASTWARD
THROUGH THE DAY. IT APPEARS ANY STRONG STORM THREAT WILL BE
ACROSS THE NAVAJO NATION AND SRN APACHE COUNTY BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON.

MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...WARM HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE DESERT
SOUTHWEST WITH A DRIER WESTERLY FLOW. A VERY STABLE AIRMASS OVERHEAD
WILL SHARPLY LIMIT DAYTIME CONVECTION WITH FAIR NIGHTS EXPECTED.
MIN TEMPS TO RETURN TO NORMAL WHICH IS AROUND 10 DEGREES COOLER THAN
WHAT WE SHOULD SEE SATURDAY MORNING.

&&

.AVIATION...
FOR THE 06Z PACKAGE...FAIR WEATHER THROUGH 17Z SAT. AFT 17Z SAT...
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP WITH EMBEDDED IFR/MVFR
CONDITIONS IN THE STRONGER STORMS. STORM ACTIVITY CONTINUE THROUGH
06Z SUNDAY. AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDMENTS.

&&

.FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC.........DL
AVIATION.......DL

FOR NORTHERN ARIZONA WEATHER INFORMATION VISIT
WEATHER.GOV/FLAGSTAFF








000
FXUS65 KFGZ 192310
AFDFGZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ
410 PM MST FRI SEP 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS SOUTHERN
CALIFORNIA AND INTO NEVADA OVER THE WEEKEND. THIS WILL INCREASE
THE CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER NORTHERN ARIZONA.
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH DRIER
AND WARMER WEATHER FORECAST.

&&

.UPDATE...
UPDATED TO DISCUSS THE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE WEATHER ON SATURDAY
AND SUNDAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

SO FAR TODAY...SCATTERED TO ISOLATED SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY HAS OCCURRED...WITH THE BEST COVERAGE ALONG THE WESTERN
MOGOLLON RIM...IN THE COCONINO PLATEAU...AND BLACK MESA REGION.
THE GREATEST THREAT FROM THESE STORMS HAS BEEN PERIODS OF HEAVY
RAINFALL...ALTHOUGH A PARTICULARLY STRONG STORM THAT PASSED BY
KACHINA VILLAGE PRODUCED ENOUGH PEA TO DIME SIZED HAIL TO COVER
THE GROUND AND SLOW TRAFFIC. ACTIVITY WILL DECREASE OVERNIGHT AS
TEMPERATURES COOL.

OVER THE WEEKEND...INCREASING CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP AS A CLOSED LOW OVER THE SOUTHERN
CALIFORNIA COAST CAUSES A MOIST SOUTHERLY FLOW TO DEVELOP ACROSS
NORTHERN ARIZONA ON SATURDAY. BETTER INSTABILITY WILL LEAD TO
STORMS WITH VERY HEAVY RAIN...AND A FEW ISOLATED STORMS CAPABLE OF
PRODUCING HAIL RANGING FROM DIME TO QUARTER SIZE. IN
ADDITION...INCREASED SHEAR MAY LEAD TO A FEW ROTATING STORMS
ALONG WITH STRONG WINDS GUSTS. THIS SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO MOVE TO
THE NORTHEAST AND WILL BE POSITIONED OVER NORTHERN NEVADA BY
SUNDAY AFTERNOON. SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY ON SATURDAY
WILL FAVOR AREAS FROM THE GRAND CANYON TO SHOW LOW WEST...SHIFTING
TO NORTHERN AND EASTERN ARIZONA ON SUNDAY.

SUBTROPICAL HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE SOUTHWEST FOR THE EARLY
PART OF NEXT WEEK LEADING TO A DRIER WESTERLY FLOW AND MUCH LESS
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY. A DEEPER AND COLDER TROUGH IS FORECAST TO
MOVE INTO THE WEST LATE NEXT WEEK...LEADING TO BREEZY AND COOLER
WEATHER WITH A RETURN FOR RAIN CHANCES.

&&

.AVIATION...
FOR THE 00Z PACKAGE...EXPECT ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TODAY WITH EMBEDDED IFR/MVFR CONDITIONS IN THE
STRONGER STORMS. STORM ACTIVITY WILL DIMINISH AFTER 03Z
SATURDAY...THEN REDEVELOP AFTER 17Z SATURDAY. AVIATION DISCUSSION
NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDMENTS.

&&

.FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC.........RR
AVIATION.......KD

FOR NORTHERN ARIZONA WEATHER INFORMATION VISIT
WEATHER.GOV/FLAGSTAFF






000
FXUS65 KFGZ 192310
AFDFGZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ
410 PM MST FRI SEP 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS SOUTHERN
CALIFORNIA AND INTO NEVADA OVER THE WEEKEND. THIS WILL INCREASE
THE CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER NORTHERN ARIZONA.
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH DRIER
AND WARMER WEATHER FORECAST.

&&

.UPDATE...
UPDATED TO DISCUSS THE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE WEATHER ON SATURDAY
AND SUNDAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

SO FAR TODAY...SCATTERED TO ISOLATED SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY HAS OCCURRED...WITH THE BEST COVERAGE ALONG THE WESTERN
MOGOLLON RIM...IN THE COCONINO PLATEAU...AND BLACK MESA REGION.
THE GREATEST THREAT FROM THESE STORMS HAS BEEN PERIODS OF HEAVY
RAINFALL...ALTHOUGH A PARTICULARLY STRONG STORM THAT PASSED BY
KACHINA VILLAGE PRODUCED ENOUGH PEA TO DIME SIZED HAIL TO COVER
THE GROUND AND SLOW TRAFFIC. ACTIVITY WILL DECREASE OVERNIGHT AS
TEMPERATURES COOL.

OVER THE WEEKEND...INCREASING CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP AS A CLOSED LOW OVER THE SOUTHERN
CALIFORNIA COAST CAUSES A MOIST SOUTHERLY FLOW TO DEVELOP ACROSS
NORTHERN ARIZONA ON SATURDAY. BETTER INSTABILITY WILL LEAD TO
STORMS WITH VERY HEAVY RAIN...AND A FEW ISOLATED STORMS CAPABLE OF
PRODUCING HAIL RANGING FROM DIME TO QUARTER SIZE. IN
ADDITION...INCREASED SHEAR MAY LEAD TO A FEW ROTATING STORMS
ALONG WITH STRONG WINDS GUSTS. THIS SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO MOVE TO
THE NORTHEAST AND WILL BE POSITIONED OVER NORTHERN NEVADA BY
SUNDAY AFTERNOON. SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY ON SATURDAY
WILL FAVOR AREAS FROM THE GRAND CANYON TO SHOW LOW WEST...SHIFTING
TO NORTHERN AND EASTERN ARIZONA ON SUNDAY.

SUBTROPICAL HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE SOUTHWEST FOR THE EARLY
PART OF NEXT WEEK LEADING TO A DRIER WESTERLY FLOW AND MUCH LESS
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY. A DEEPER AND COLDER TROUGH IS FORECAST TO
MOVE INTO THE WEST LATE NEXT WEEK...LEADING TO BREEZY AND COOLER
WEATHER WITH A RETURN FOR RAIN CHANCES.

&&

.AVIATION...
FOR THE 00Z PACKAGE...EXPECT ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TODAY WITH EMBEDDED IFR/MVFR CONDITIONS IN THE
STRONGER STORMS. STORM ACTIVITY WILL DIMINISH AFTER 03Z
SATURDAY...THEN REDEVELOP AFTER 17Z SATURDAY. AVIATION DISCUSSION
NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDMENTS.

&&

.FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC.........RR
AVIATION.......KD

FOR NORTHERN ARIZONA WEATHER INFORMATION VISIT
WEATHER.GOV/FLAGSTAFF





000
FXUS65 KFGZ 192208
AFDFGZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ
308 PM MST FRI SEP 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS SOUTHERN
CALIFORNIA AND INTO NEVADA OVER THE WEEKEND. THIS WILL INCREASE
THE CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER NORTHERN ARIZONA.
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH DRIER
AND WARMER WEATHER FORECAST.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
SO FAR TODAY...SCATTERED TO ISOLATED SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY HAS OCCURRED...WITH THE BEST COVERAGE ALONG THE WESTERN
MOGOLLON RIM AND BLACK MESA AREA. SOME STORMS HAVE BEEN RATHER
STRONG. ONE STORM THAT PASSED OVER KACHINA VILLAGE PRODUCED VERY
HEAVY RAINFALL AND ENOUGH PEA TO DIME SIZED HAIL TO COVER THE
GROUND AND SLOW TRAFFIC. ACTIVITY WILL DECREASE OVERNIGHT AS
TEMPERATURES COOL.

OVER THE WEEKEND...INCREASING CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP AS A CLOSED LOW OVER THE SOUTHERN
CALIFORNIA COAST CAUSES A MOIST SOUTHERLY FLOW TO DEVELOP ACROSS
NORTHERN ARIZONA ON SATURDAY. THIS SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO MOVE TO
THE NORTHEAST AND WILL BE POSITIONED OVER NORTHERN NEVADA BY
SUNDAY AFTERNOON. SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY ON SATURDAY
WILL FAVOR AREAS FROM THE GRAND CANYON TO SHOW LOW WEST...SHIFTING
TO NORTHERN AND EASTERN ARIZONA ON SUNDAY.

SUBTROPICAL HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE SOUTHWEST FOR THE EARLY
PART OF NEXT WEEK LEADING TO A DRIER WESTERLY FLOW AND MUCH LESS
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY. A DEEPER AND COLDER TROUGH IS FORECAST TO
MOVE INTO THE WEST LATE NEXT WEEK...LEADING TO BREEZY AND COOLER
WEATHER WITH A RETURN FOR RAIN CHANCES.

&&

.AVIATION...
FOR THE 00Z PACKAGE...EXPECT ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TODAY WITH EMBEDDED IFR/MVFR CONDITIONS IN THE
STRONGER STORMS. STORM ACTIVITY WILL DIMINISH AFTER 03Z
SATURDAY...THEN REDEVELOP AFTER 17Z SATURDAY. AVIATION DISCUSSION
NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDMENTS.

&&

.FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC.........RR
AVIATION.......KD

FOR NORTHERN ARIZONA WEATHER INFORMATION VISIT
WEATHER.GOV/FLAGSTAFF





000
FXUS65 KFGZ 192208
AFDFGZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ
308 PM MST FRI SEP 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS SOUTHERN
CALIFORNIA AND INTO NEVADA OVER THE WEEKEND. THIS WILL INCREASE
THE CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER NORTHERN ARIZONA.
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH DRIER
AND WARMER WEATHER FORECAST.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
SO FAR TODAY...SCATTERED TO ISOLATED SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY HAS OCCURRED...WITH THE BEST COVERAGE ALONG THE WESTERN
MOGOLLON RIM AND BLACK MESA AREA. SOME STORMS HAVE BEEN RATHER
STRONG. ONE STORM THAT PASSED OVER KACHINA VILLAGE PRODUCED VERY
HEAVY RAINFALL AND ENOUGH PEA TO DIME SIZED HAIL TO COVER THE
GROUND AND SLOW TRAFFIC. ACTIVITY WILL DECREASE OVERNIGHT AS
TEMPERATURES COOL.

OVER THE WEEKEND...INCREASING CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP AS A CLOSED LOW OVER THE SOUTHERN
CALIFORNIA COAST CAUSES A MOIST SOUTHERLY FLOW TO DEVELOP ACROSS
NORTHERN ARIZONA ON SATURDAY. THIS SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO MOVE TO
THE NORTHEAST AND WILL BE POSITIONED OVER NORTHERN NEVADA BY
SUNDAY AFTERNOON. SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY ON SATURDAY
WILL FAVOR AREAS FROM THE GRAND CANYON TO SHOW LOW WEST...SHIFTING
TO NORTHERN AND EASTERN ARIZONA ON SUNDAY.

SUBTROPICAL HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE SOUTHWEST FOR THE EARLY
PART OF NEXT WEEK LEADING TO A DRIER WESTERLY FLOW AND MUCH LESS
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY. A DEEPER AND COLDER TROUGH IS FORECAST TO
MOVE INTO THE WEST LATE NEXT WEEK...LEADING TO BREEZY AND COOLER
WEATHER WITH A RETURN FOR RAIN CHANCES.

&&

.AVIATION...
FOR THE 00Z PACKAGE...EXPECT ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TODAY WITH EMBEDDED IFR/MVFR CONDITIONS IN THE
STRONGER STORMS. STORM ACTIVITY WILL DIMINISH AFTER 03Z
SATURDAY...THEN REDEVELOP AFTER 17Z SATURDAY. AVIATION DISCUSSION
NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDMENTS.

&&

.FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC.........RR
AVIATION.......KD

FOR NORTHERN ARIZONA WEATHER INFORMATION VISIT
WEATHER.GOV/FLAGSTAFF






000
FXUS65 KPSR 192150 AAA
AFDPSR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PHOENIX AZ
250 PM MST FRI SEP 19 2014

.UPDATE...UPDATED AVIATION AND FIRE WEATHER DISCUSSIONS.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
LINGERING MOISTURE ACROSS THE REGION AND LOW PRESSURE APPROACHING
FROM THE WEST WILL KEEP AT LEAST SLIGHT CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS IN THE FORECAST TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY. DRIER AIR WILL
GRADUALLY FILTER INTO THE REGION SUNDAY AND MONDAY FOR A DECLINE IN
STORM CHANCES. WITH LITTLE CHANGE THROUGH WEDNESDAY...STORM CHANCES
REMAIN VERY SLIGHT AND LIMITED TO THE HIGHER MOUNTAINS OF
SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA. TEMPERATURES WILL GRADUALLY WARM AS WELL. AN
APPROACHING PACIFIC WEATHER SYSTEM LATE NEXT WEEK WILL LEAD TO AN
INCREASE IN STORM CHANCES OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF SOUTH-CENTRAL
ARIZONA.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
LOW PRESSURE SPINNING OFF CALIFORNIA COAST WILL HAVE LITTLE FORWARD
PROPAGATION AND WILL SLOWLY MIGRATE NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE GREAT
BASIN THROUGHOUT THE COMING WEEKEND. WITH HIGH PRESSURE SITUATED
ACROSS NORTHERN MEXICO AND SOUTHERN NEW MEXICO...A SOUTHERLY FLOW
WILL CONTINUE TO STREAM IN SOME MOISTURE FROM THE TROPICS KEEPING
OUR MIXING RATIOS AND DEWPOINTS ELEVATED. CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION
SHOULD BE LIMITED TO HIGHER ELEVATION TERRAIN THROUGH MONDAY WHERE
THE INSTABILITY AND AXIS OF GREATEST DYNAMICS WILL RESIDE. NOT AN
IMPRESSIVE AMOUNT OF INSTABILITY IS FORECAST ACROSS THE LOWER AND
CENTRAL DESERTS THIS WEEKEND BUT CAN NOT RULE OUT A STRAY ISOLATED
SHOWER. FAIRLY MOIST COLUMN OF AIR IN PLACE...PW VALUES REMAINING
AROUND THE 1.5 INCH MARK...ALONG WITH SOME ASCENT FROM THE BOUNDARY
LAYER THROUGH MID-LAYERS /600-700MB OR 10-15K FT/.

MONDAY...AS THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PUSHES NORTHEAST THROUGH THE
GREAT BASIN...HIGH PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP BACK ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST
DESERTS ALLOWING THE TEMPERATURE TO NUDGE UP A DEGREE OR TWO EACH
DAY. THE PREVIOUS SHIFT DID WELL WITH TEMPERATURES SO VERY MINOR
CHANGES WERE MADE...KEEPING TEMPERATURES A HANDFUL OF DEGREES ABOVE
OR BELOW SEASONAL NORMAL /99F FOR PHOENIX AND 101F FOR YUMA/ THROUGH
THE WEEK. WITH A MORE WESTERLY COMPONENT IN THE WIND FLOW
PATTERN...MIXING RATIOS ARE FORECAST TO DROP DOWN AROUND 6-8 G/KG
RANGE FROM SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA INTO THE CENTRAL ARIZONA DESERTS
EARLY NEXT WEEK. EVEN WITH HIGH PRESSURE IN PLACE ACROSS NORTHERN
MEXICO...THE FAVORABLE WIND FLOW AND LACK OF MOISTURE SHOULD WARD
OFF OUR CHANCES FOR ANY STORMS THAT MAY TRY TO FORM. ENSEMBLE AND
DETERMINISTIC MODELS HAVE WELL ADVERTISED THE TROUGH FEATURE SLOWLY
MOVING NORTHWARD ONLY TO BE ABSORBED IN THE LONGWAVE TROUGH PATTERN.
EVEN PAST 115 HRS BOTH ECMWF AND GFS...AND RESPECTIVE ENSEMBLE
MEMBERS...HAVE THE NEXT UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WELL AGREED UPON BY
LATE WEEK THURSDAY/FRIDAY BEGINNING TO IMPACT THE WESTERN COAST.


.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION.../ISSUED 410 AM MST/PDT FRIDAY 19 SEPT/...
TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY...

MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...
WITH RIDGING BEGINNING TO BUILD IN MONDAY ALONG WITH SOME ADDITIONAL
DRYING...TEMPS WILL BE A BIT WARMER AND POPS WILL BE LIMITED TO LOW
END SLIGHT CHANCE OVER THE HIGHER MOUNTAINS OF SOUTH-CENTRAL
ARIZONA. LOOK FOR SLIGHT ADDITIONAL WARMING TUESDAY WITH LITTLE
CHANGE WEDNESDAY ALONG WITH  LITTLE CHANGE IN POPS. BY THURSDAY...A
PACIFIC TROUGH MOVES INLAND AND DRAWS SOME MOISTURE NORTHWARD.
SLIGHT CHANCE AREA WAS BROADENED BUT STILL CONFINED TO THE HIGHER
TERRAIN OF SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA.

&&

.AVIATION...
SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA INCLUDING KPHX...KIWA...AND KSDL...
SCT-BKN MID-LEVEL CLOUD DECKS AOA 8000FT TO RETURN OVERNIGHT AND
PERSIST INTO SATURDAY MORNING. STORMS FOR THE MOST PART WILL HUG THE
HIGHER TERRAIN NORTH AND EAST OF TERMINALS...BUT NORTHERLY STEERING
FLOWS COULD BRING AN ISOLATED STORM INTO THE LOWER DESERTS THIS
AFTERNOON/EVENING. OUTSIDE OF ANY WANDERING CONVECTIVE OUTFLOW
BOUNDARIES...WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE LIGHT AOB 10KTS WITH NO
SUDDEN UNEXPECTED WIND SHIFTS.

SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA AND SOUTHWEST ARIZONA INCLUDING KIPL AND KBLH...
MAINLY CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS TO PREVAIL ACROSS THE AREA
THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.

AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDED TAFS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...
RATHER DRY WESTERLY FLOW TO KEEP SKIES MAINLY CLEAR THROUGH THE
FORECAST PERIOD AT MOST LOCATIONS ACROSS THE REGION...WITH THE
EXCEPTION OF THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA...WHERE
LINGERING MOISTURE MAY ALLOW ISOLATED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS TO
DEVELOP EACH AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING. MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITIES TO
FALL INTO THE 20 TO 30 PERCENT RANGE EACH AFTERNOON...WITH GOOD TO
EXCELLENT OVERNIGHT RECOVERIES. WINDS TO REMAIN MAINLY ON THE LIGHT
SIDE...MAINLY IN THE 5 TO 15 MPH RANGE...WITH THE USUAL DIURNAL
TRENDS TO PREVAIL AT MOST LOCATIONS.


&&

.PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

AZ...NONE.

CA...NONE.

&&

$$

VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/PHOENIX

DISCUSSION...DEWEY
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...AJ
AVIATION...MEYERS
FIRE WEATHER...MEYERS/PERCHA






000
FXUS65 KTWC 192104
AFDTWC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ
204 PM MST FRI SEP 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...LINGERING MOISTURE WILL MAINTAIN A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS INTO THIS WEEKEND. HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT COULD PROVIDE
REDUCED RAINFALL CHANCES NEXT WEEK. EXPECT GRADUALLY WARMER DAYTIME
TEMPERATURES INTO THIS WEEKEND.

&&

.DISCUSSION...WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS ARIZONA BETWEEN TWO
SYSTEMS...WITH A RIDGE TO OUR SOUTHEAST OVER NORTHEAST MEXICO...WITH
AN APPROACHING PACIFIC TROUGH THAT EXTENDS FROM THE NORTHERN ROCKIES
THROUGH THE GREAT BASIN AND INTO NORTH CENTRAL CALIFORNIA AND THE
ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS. PLENTY OF DRY MID TO UPPER LEVEL AIR COVERS
MUCH OF THE DESERT SOUTHWEST...NORTHERN MEXICO AND THE EASTERN
PACIFIC WATERS. THIS IS REFLECTED IN THIS MORNINGS KTWC SOUNDING
WHICH SHOWS SIGNIFICANT DRYING ABOVE 600MB COMPARED TO 24 HOURS AGO.

VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES THAT THE EXTENSIVE LOW AND MID
LEVEL CLOUDINESS THAT WAS PRESENT OVER MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA HAS
BEEN STEADILY ERODING DURING THE PAST FEW HOURS...WITH MOST OF THE
CUMULUS CLOUDS AND ASSOCIATED SHOWERS NEAR THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER.
RADAR MOSAIC FROM AROUND THE REGION IS DETECTING ISOLATED SHOWERS
ACROSS MOSTLY CENTRAL AND WESTERN ZONES AT THIS TIME. I INCREASED
RAIN CHANCES OUT WEST FROM WHAT I INHERITED THIS MORNING AND SO FAR
THIS SEEMS TO BE REPRESENTATIVE OF ONGOING RADAR TRENDS...BUT ALSO
WHAT THE 12Z RUN OF THE U OF A WRF MODELS WERE SUGGESTING AS
WELL.

POP FORECASTS FOR THE WEEKEND AND INTO MONDAY SHOULD BE A NEARLY
CARBON COPY FORECAST EACH DAY...WITH ISOLATED ISOLATED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS FOR THE FAR WESTERN DESERTS AND SCATTERED TYPE POPS
FOR THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN ZONES. BY TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY RAIN
CHANCES WILL DECREASE WITH SHOWERS AND STORMS CONFINED TO MAINLY
AREAS ALONG THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER AND NEW MEXICO BORDER.
THEREAFTER...RAIN CHANCES INCREASE AS A PACIFIC TROUGH MOVES BY TO
OUR NORTH.

&&

.AVIATION...VALID THRU 21/00Z.
EXPECT ISOLATED TO SCATTERED -SHRA/-TSRA WILL OCCUR THROUGH SATURDAY
WITH THE BEST COVERAGE OCCURRING THIS EVENING AND SATURDAY
AFTERNOON. MVFR CIGS AND VSBYS ARE PSBL IN MORE INTENSE SHOWERS.
SURFACE WINDS WILL BE MAINLY LESS THAN 10 KTS. AVIATION DISCUSSION
NOT UPDATED FOR TAF AMENDMENTS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...MOISTURE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE INTO NEXT
WEEK..FUELING CHANCES FOR ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. TUE AND WED SHOULD BE THE LEAST ACTIVE DAYS WITH AN
UPTICK FORECAST BY THURSDAY.

&&

.CLIMATE...THE TUCSON AIRPORT HAS RECORDED 3 STRAIGHT DAYS WITH
HIGHS LESS THAN 85 DEGREES. THIS IS THE LONGEST SEPTEMBER STRETCH
SINCE 1985.

&&

.TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...YOUTUBE...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/TUCSON

PUBLIC...MOLLERE
AVIATION/FIRE WEATHER...DROZD







000
FXUS65 KPSR 192100
AFDPSR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PHOENIX AZ
200 PM MST FRI SEP 19 2014


.SYNOPSIS...
LINGERING MOISTURE ACROSS THE REGION AND LOW PRESSURE APPROACHING
FROM THE WEST WILL KEEP AT LEAST SLIGHT CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS IN THE FORECAST TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY. DRIER AIR WILL
GRADUALLY FILTER INTO THE REGION SUNDAY AND MONDAY FOR A DECLINE IN
STORM CHANCES. WITH LITTLE CHANGE THROUGH WEDNESDAY...STORM CHANCES
REMAIN VERY SLIGHT AND LIMITED TO THE HIGHER MOUNTAINS OF
SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA. TEMPERATURES WILL GRADUALLY WARM AS WELL. AN
APPROACHING PACIFIC WEATHER SYSTEM LATE NEXT WEEK WILL LEAD TO AN
INCREASE IN STORM CHANCES OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF SOUTH-CENTRAL
ARIZONA.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
LOW PRESSURE SPINNING OFF CALIFORNIA COAST WILL HAVE LITTLE FORWARD
PROPAGATION AND WILL SLOWLY MIGRATE NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE GREAT
BASIN THROUGHOUT THE COMING WEEKEND. WITH HIGH PRESSURE SITUATED
ACROSS NORTHERN MEXICO AND SOUTHERN NEW MEXICO...A SOUTHERLY FLOW
WILL CONTINUE TO STREAM IN SOME MOISTURE FROM THE TROPICS KEEPING
OUR MIXING RATIOS AND DEWPOINTS ELEVATED. CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION
SHOULD BE LIMITED TO HIGHER ELEVATION TERRAIN THROUGH MONDAY WHERE
THE INSTABILITY AND AXIS OF GREATEST DYNAMICS WILL RESIDE. NOT AN
IMPRESSIVE AMOUNT OF INSTABILITY IS FORECAST ACROSS THE LOWER AND
CENTRAL DESERTS THIS WEEKEND BUT CAN NOT RULE OUT A STRAY ISOLATED
SHOWER. FAIRLY MOIST COLUMN OF AIR IN PLACE...PW VALUES REMAINING
AROUND THE 1.5 INCH MARK...ALONG WITH SOME ASCENT FROM THE BOUNDARY
LAYER THROUGH MID-LAYERS /600-700MB OR 10-15K FT/.

MONDAY...AS THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PUSHES NORTHEAST THROUGH THE
GREAT BASIN...HIGH PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP BACK ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST
DESERTS ALLOWING THE TEMPERATURE TO NUDGE UP A DEGREE OR TWO EACH
DAY. THE PREVIOUS SHIFT DID WELL WITH TEMPERATURES SO VERY MINOR
CHANGES WERE MADE...KEEPING TEMPERATURES A HANDFUL OF DEGREES ABOVE
OR BELOW SEASONAL NORMAL /99F FOR PHOENIX AND 101F FOR YUMA/ THROUGH
THE WEEK. WITH A MORE WESTERLY COMPONENT IN THE WIND FLOW
PATTERN...MIXING RATIOS ARE FORECAST TO DROP DOWN AROUND 6-8 G/KG
RANGE FROM SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA INTO THE CENTRAL ARIZONA DESERTS
EARLY NEXT WEEK. EVEN WITH HIGH PRESSURE IN PLACE ACROSS NORTHERN
MEXICO...THE FAVORABLE WIND FLOW AND LACK OF MOISTURE SHOULD WARD
OFF OUR CHANCES FOR ANY STORMS THAT MAY TRY TO FORM. ENSEMBLE AND
DETERMINISTIC MODELS HAVE WELL ADVERTISED THE TROUGH FEATURE SLOWLY
MOVING NORTHWARD ONLY TO BE ABSORBED IN THE LONGWAVE TROUGH PATTERN.
EVEN PAST 115 HRS BOTH ECMWF AND GFS...AND RESPECTIVE ENSEMBLE
MEMBERS...HAVE THE NEXT UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WELL AGREED UPON BY
LATE WEEK THURSDAY/FRIDAY BEGINNING TO IMPACT THE WESTERN COAST.


.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION.../ISSUED 410 AM MST/PDT FRIDAY 19 SEPT/...
TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY...

MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...
WITH RIDGING BEGINNING TO BUILD IN MONDAY ALONG WITH SOME ADDITIONAL
DRYING...TEMPS WILL BE A BIT WARMER AND POPS WILL BE LIMITED TO LOW
END SLIGHT CHANCE OVER THE HIGHER MOUNTAINS OF SOUTH-CENTRAL
ARIZONA. LOOK FOR SLIGHT ADDITIONAL WARMING TUESDAY WITH LITTLE
CHANGE WEDNESDAY ALONG WITH  LITTLE CHANGE IN POPS. BY THURSDAY...A
PACIFIC TROUGH MOVES INLAND AND DRAWS SOME MOISTURE NORTHWARD.
SLIGHT CHANCE AREA WAS BROADENED BUT STILL CONFINED TO THE HIGHER
TERRAIN OF SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA.

&&

.AVIATION...
SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA INCLUDING KPHX...KIWA...AND KSDL...CURRENT
SCT-BKN 7-8K FT CIGS TO BECOME FEW-SCT BY THIS AFTERNOON AS SOMEWHAT
DRIER AIR FILTERS INTO THE REGION FROM THE WEST. SCT-BKN MID-LEVEL
CIGS TO RETURN AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT AS SOUTHERLY FLOW ALOFT PUSHES
MOISTURE BACK NORTHWARD INTO THE PHX AREA. WINDS TO MAINLY FOLLOW
THE USUAL DIURNAL TRENDS...WHILE REMAINING ON THE LIGHT
SIDE...MAINLY AOB 10KTS.

SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA AND SOUTHWEST ARIZONA INCLUDING KIPL AND KBLH...
CURRENT WESTERLY WINDS AT KIPL...AND SOUTHERLY WINDS AT KBLH...THAT
ARE NOW AROUND 10KTS...ARE EXPECTED TO DIMINISH TO AROUND...OR BELOW
5KTS BY MID-LATE MORNING. MAINLY CLEAR SKIES TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE
TAF PERIOD AT BOTH OF THE SE CA TERMINALS.

AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDED TAFS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...
RATHER DRY WESTERLY FLOW TO KEEP SKIES MAINLY CLEAR THROUGH THE
FORECAST PERIOD AT MOST LOCATIONS ACROSS THE REGION...WITH THE
EXCEPTION OF THE HIGHER TERRAIN NORTH AND EAST OF PHOENIX...WHERE
LINGERING MOISTURE MAY ALLOW ISOLATED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS TO
DEVELOP EACH AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING. MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITIES TO
FALL INTO THE 20 TO 30 PERCENT RANGE EACH AFTERNOON...WITH GOOD TO
EXCELLENT OVERNIGHT RECOVERIES. WINDS TO REMAIN MAINLY ON THE LIGHT
SIDE...MAINLY IN THE 5 TO 15 MPH RANGE...WITH THE USUAL DIURNAL
TRENDS TO PREVAIL AT MOST LOCATIONS.


&&

.PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

AZ...NONE.

CA...NONE.

&&

$$

VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/PHOENIX

DISCUSSION...DEWEY
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...AJ
AVIATION...PERCHA
FIRE WEATHER...PERCHA








000
FXUS65 KPSR 192100
AFDPSR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PHOENIX AZ
200 PM MST FRI SEP 19 2014


.SYNOPSIS...
LINGERING MOISTURE ACROSS THE REGION AND LOW PRESSURE APPROACHING
FROM THE WEST WILL KEEP AT LEAST SLIGHT CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS IN THE FORECAST TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY. DRIER AIR WILL
GRADUALLY FILTER INTO THE REGION SUNDAY AND MONDAY FOR A DECLINE IN
STORM CHANCES. WITH LITTLE CHANGE THROUGH WEDNESDAY...STORM CHANCES
REMAIN VERY SLIGHT AND LIMITED TO THE HIGHER MOUNTAINS OF
SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA. TEMPERATURES WILL GRADUALLY WARM AS WELL. AN
APPROACHING PACIFIC WEATHER SYSTEM LATE NEXT WEEK WILL LEAD TO AN
INCREASE IN STORM CHANCES OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF SOUTH-CENTRAL
ARIZONA.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
LOW PRESSURE SPINNING OFF CALIFORNIA COAST WILL HAVE LITTLE FORWARD
PROPAGATION AND WILL SLOWLY MIGRATE NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE GREAT
BASIN THROUGHOUT THE COMING WEEKEND. WITH HIGH PRESSURE SITUATED
ACROSS NORTHERN MEXICO AND SOUTHERN NEW MEXICO...A SOUTHERLY FLOW
WILL CONTINUE TO STREAM IN SOME MOISTURE FROM THE TROPICS KEEPING
OUR MIXING RATIOS AND DEWPOINTS ELEVATED. CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION
SHOULD BE LIMITED TO HIGHER ELEVATION TERRAIN THROUGH MONDAY WHERE
THE INSTABILITY AND AXIS OF GREATEST DYNAMICS WILL RESIDE. NOT AN
IMPRESSIVE AMOUNT OF INSTABILITY IS FORECAST ACROSS THE LOWER AND
CENTRAL DESERTS THIS WEEKEND BUT CAN NOT RULE OUT A STRAY ISOLATED
SHOWER. FAIRLY MOIST COLUMN OF AIR IN PLACE...PW VALUES REMAINING
AROUND THE 1.5 INCH MARK...ALONG WITH SOME ASCENT FROM THE BOUNDARY
LAYER THROUGH MID-LAYERS /600-700MB OR 10-15K FT/.

MONDAY...AS THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PUSHES NORTHEAST THROUGH THE
GREAT BASIN...HIGH PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP BACK ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST
DESERTS ALLOWING THE TEMPERATURE TO NUDGE UP A DEGREE OR TWO EACH
DAY. THE PREVIOUS SHIFT DID WELL WITH TEMPERATURES SO VERY MINOR
CHANGES WERE MADE...KEEPING TEMPERATURES A HANDFUL OF DEGREES ABOVE
OR BELOW SEASONAL NORMAL /99F FOR PHOENIX AND 101F FOR YUMA/ THROUGH
THE WEEK. WITH A MORE WESTERLY COMPONENT IN THE WIND FLOW
PATTERN...MIXING RATIOS ARE FORECAST TO DROP DOWN AROUND 6-8 G/KG
RANGE FROM SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA INTO THE CENTRAL ARIZONA DESERTS
EARLY NEXT WEEK. EVEN WITH HIGH PRESSURE IN PLACE ACROSS NORTHERN
MEXICO...THE FAVORABLE WIND FLOW AND LACK OF MOISTURE SHOULD WARD
OFF OUR CHANCES FOR ANY STORMS THAT MAY TRY TO FORM. ENSEMBLE AND
DETERMINISTIC MODELS HAVE WELL ADVERTISED THE TROUGH FEATURE SLOWLY
MOVING NORTHWARD ONLY TO BE ABSORBED IN THE LONGWAVE TROUGH PATTERN.
EVEN PAST 115 HRS BOTH ECMWF AND GFS...AND RESPECTIVE ENSEMBLE
MEMBERS...HAVE THE NEXT UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WELL AGREED UPON BY
LATE WEEK THURSDAY/FRIDAY BEGINNING TO IMPACT THE WESTERN COAST.


.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION.../ISSUED 410 AM MST/PDT FRIDAY 19 SEPT/...
TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY...

MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...
WITH RIDGING BEGINNING TO BUILD IN MONDAY ALONG WITH SOME ADDITIONAL
DRYING...TEMPS WILL BE A BIT WARMER AND POPS WILL BE LIMITED TO LOW
END SLIGHT CHANCE OVER THE HIGHER MOUNTAINS OF SOUTH-CENTRAL
ARIZONA. LOOK FOR SLIGHT ADDITIONAL WARMING TUESDAY WITH LITTLE
CHANGE WEDNESDAY ALONG WITH  LITTLE CHANGE IN POPS. BY THURSDAY...A
PACIFIC TROUGH MOVES INLAND AND DRAWS SOME MOISTURE NORTHWARD.
SLIGHT CHANCE AREA WAS BROADENED BUT STILL CONFINED TO THE HIGHER
TERRAIN OF SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA.

&&

.AVIATION...
SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA INCLUDING KPHX...KIWA...AND KSDL...CURRENT
SCT-BKN 7-8K FT CIGS TO BECOME FEW-SCT BY THIS AFTERNOON AS SOMEWHAT
DRIER AIR FILTERS INTO THE REGION FROM THE WEST. SCT-BKN MID-LEVEL
CIGS TO RETURN AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT AS SOUTHERLY FLOW ALOFT PUSHES
MOISTURE BACK NORTHWARD INTO THE PHX AREA. WINDS TO MAINLY FOLLOW
THE USUAL DIURNAL TRENDS...WHILE REMAINING ON THE LIGHT
SIDE...MAINLY AOB 10KTS.

SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA AND SOUTHWEST ARIZONA INCLUDING KIPL AND KBLH...
CURRENT WESTERLY WINDS AT KIPL...AND SOUTHERLY WINDS AT KBLH...THAT
ARE NOW AROUND 10KTS...ARE EXPECTED TO DIMINISH TO AROUND...OR BELOW
5KTS BY MID-LATE MORNING. MAINLY CLEAR SKIES TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE
TAF PERIOD AT BOTH OF THE SE CA TERMINALS.

AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDED TAFS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...
RATHER DRY WESTERLY FLOW TO KEEP SKIES MAINLY CLEAR THROUGH THE
FORECAST PERIOD AT MOST LOCATIONS ACROSS THE REGION...WITH THE
EXCEPTION OF THE HIGHER TERRAIN NORTH AND EAST OF PHOENIX...WHERE
LINGERING MOISTURE MAY ALLOW ISOLATED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS TO
DEVELOP EACH AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING. MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITIES TO
FALL INTO THE 20 TO 30 PERCENT RANGE EACH AFTERNOON...WITH GOOD TO
EXCELLENT OVERNIGHT RECOVERIES. WINDS TO REMAIN MAINLY ON THE LIGHT
SIDE...MAINLY IN THE 5 TO 15 MPH RANGE...WITH THE USUAL DIURNAL
TRENDS TO PREVAIL AT MOST LOCATIONS.


&&

.PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

AZ...NONE.

CA...NONE.

&&

$$

VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/PHOENIX

DISCUSSION...DEWEY
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...AJ
AVIATION...PERCHA
FIRE WEATHER...PERCHA








000
FXUS65 KPSR 192100
AFDPSR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PHOENIX AZ
200 PM MST FRI SEP 19 2014


.SYNOPSIS...
LINGERING MOISTURE ACROSS THE REGION AND LOW PRESSURE APPROACHING
FROM THE WEST WILL KEEP AT LEAST SLIGHT CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS IN THE FORECAST TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY. DRIER AIR WILL
GRADUALLY FILTER INTO THE REGION SUNDAY AND MONDAY FOR A DECLINE IN
STORM CHANCES. WITH LITTLE CHANGE THROUGH WEDNESDAY...STORM CHANCES
REMAIN VERY SLIGHT AND LIMITED TO THE HIGHER MOUNTAINS OF
SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA. TEMPERATURES WILL GRADUALLY WARM AS WELL. AN
APPROACHING PACIFIC WEATHER SYSTEM LATE NEXT WEEK WILL LEAD TO AN
INCREASE IN STORM CHANCES OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF SOUTH-CENTRAL
ARIZONA.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
LOW PRESSURE SPINNING OFF CALIFORNIA COAST WILL HAVE LITTLE FORWARD
PROPAGATION AND WILL SLOWLY MIGRATE NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE GREAT
BASIN THROUGHOUT THE COMING WEEKEND. WITH HIGH PRESSURE SITUATED
ACROSS NORTHERN MEXICO AND SOUTHERN NEW MEXICO...A SOUTHERLY FLOW
WILL CONTINUE TO STREAM IN SOME MOISTURE FROM THE TROPICS KEEPING
OUR MIXING RATIOS AND DEWPOINTS ELEVATED. CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION
SHOULD BE LIMITED TO HIGHER ELEVATION TERRAIN THROUGH MONDAY WHERE
THE INSTABILITY AND AXIS OF GREATEST DYNAMICS WILL RESIDE. NOT AN
IMPRESSIVE AMOUNT OF INSTABILITY IS FORECAST ACROSS THE LOWER AND
CENTRAL DESERTS THIS WEEKEND BUT CAN NOT RULE OUT A STRAY ISOLATED
SHOWER. FAIRLY MOIST COLUMN OF AIR IN PLACE...PW VALUES REMAINING
AROUND THE 1.5 INCH MARK...ALONG WITH SOME ASCENT FROM THE BOUNDARY
LAYER THROUGH MID-LAYERS /600-700MB OR 10-15K FT/.

MONDAY...AS THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PUSHES NORTHEAST THROUGH THE
GREAT BASIN...HIGH PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP BACK ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST
DESERTS ALLOWING THE TEMPERATURE TO NUDGE UP A DEGREE OR TWO EACH
DAY. THE PREVIOUS SHIFT DID WELL WITH TEMPERATURES SO VERY MINOR
CHANGES WERE MADE...KEEPING TEMPERATURES A HANDFUL OF DEGREES ABOVE
OR BELOW SEASONAL NORMAL /99F FOR PHOENIX AND 101F FOR YUMA/ THROUGH
THE WEEK. WITH A MORE WESTERLY COMPONENT IN THE WIND FLOW
PATTERN...MIXING RATIOS ARE FORECAST TO DROP DOWN AROUND 6-8 G/KG
RANGE FROM SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA INTO THE CENTRAL ARIZONA DESERTS
EARLY NEXT WEEK. EVEN WITH HIGH PRESSURE IN PLACE ACROSS NORTHERN
MEXICO...THE FAVORABLE WIND FLOW AND LACK OF MOISTURE SHOULD WARD
OFF OUR CHANCES FOR ANY STORMS THAT MAY TRY TO FORM. ENSEMBLE AND
DETERMINISTIC MODELS HAVE WELL ADVERTISED THE TROUGH FEATURE SLOWLY
MOVING NORTHWARD ONLY TO BE ABSORBED IN THE LONGWAVE TROUGH PATTERN.
EVEN PAST 115 HRS BOTH ECMWF AND GFS...AND RESPECTIVE ENSEMBLE
MEMBERS...HAVE THE NEXT UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WELL AGREED UPON BY
LATE WEEK THURSDAY/FRIDAY BEGINNING TO IMPACT THE WESTERN COAST.


.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION.../ISSUED 410 AM MST/PDT FRIDAY 19 SEPT/...
TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY...

MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...
WITH RIDGING BEGINNING TO BUILD IN MONDAY ALONG WITH SOME ADDITIONAL
DRYING...TEMPS WILL BE A BIT WARMER AND POPS WILL BE LIMITED TO LOW
END SLIGHT CHANCE OVER THE HIGHER MOUNTAINS OF SOUTH-CENTRAL
ARIZONA. LOOK FOR SLIGHT ADDITIONAL WARMING TUESDAY WITH LITTLE
CHANGE WEDNESDAY ALONG WITH  LITTLE CHANGE IN POPS. BY THURSDAY...A
PACIFIC TROUGH MOVES INLAND AND DRAWS SOME MOISTURE NORTHWARD.
SLIGHT CHANCE AREA WAS BROADENED BUT STILL CONFINED TO THE HIGHER
TERRAIN OF SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA.

&&

.AVIATION...
SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA INCLUDING KPHX...KIWA...AND KSDL...CURRENT
SCT-BKN 7-8K FT CIGS TO BECOME FEW-SCT BY THIS AFTERNOON AS SOMEWHAT
DRIER AIR FILTERS INTO THE REGION FROM THE WEST. SCT-BKN MID-LEVEL
CIGS TO RETURN AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT AS SOUTHERLY FLOW ALOFT PUSHES
MOISTURE BACK NORTHWARD INTO THE PHX AREA. WINDS TO MAINLY FOLLOW
THE USUAL DIURNAL TRENDS...WHILE REMAINING ON THE LIGHT
SIDE...MAINLY AOB 10KTS.

SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA AND SOUTHWEST ARIZONA INCLUDING KIPL AND KBLH...
CURRENT WESTERLY WINDS AT KIPL...AND SOUTHERLY WINDS AT KBLH...THAT
ARE NOW AROUND 10KTS...ARE EXPECTED TO DIMINISH TO AROUND...OR BELOW
5KTS BY MID-LATE MORNING. MAINLY CLEAR SKIES TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE
TAF PERIOD AT BOTH OF THE SE CA TERMINALS.

AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDED TAFS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...
RATHER DRY WESTERLY FLOW TO KEEP SKIES MAINLY CLEAR THROUGH THE
FORECAST PERIOD AT MOST LOCATIONS ACROSS THE REGION...WITH THE
EXCEPTION OF THE HIGHER TERRAIN NORTH AND EAST OF PHOENIX...WHERE
LINGERING MOISTURE MAY ALLOW ISOLATED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS TO
DEVELOP EACH AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING. MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITIES TO
FALL INTO THE 20 TO 30 PERCENT RANGE EACH AFTERNOON...WITH GOOD TO
EXCELLENT OVERNIGHT RECOVERIES. WINDS TO REMAIN MAINLY ON THE LIGHT
SIDE...MAINLY IN THE 5 TO 15 MPH RANGE...WITH THE USUAL DIURNAL
TRENDS TO PREVAIL AT MOST LOCATIONS.


&&

.PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

AZ...NONE.

CA...NONE.

&&

$$

VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/PHOENIX

DISCUSSION...DEWEY
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...AJ
AVIATION...PERCHA
FIRE WEATHER...PERCHA








000
FXUS65 KPSR 192100
AFDPSR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PHOENIX AZ
200 PM MST FRI SEP 19 2014


.SYNOPSIS...
LINGERING MOISTURE ACROSS THE REGION AND LOW PRESSURE APPROACHING
FROM THE WEST WILL KEEP AT LEAST SLIGHT CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS IN THE FORECAST TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY. DRIER AIR WILL
GRADUALLY FILTER INTO THE REGION SUNDAY AND MONDAY FOR A DECLINE IN
STORM CHANCES. WITH LITTLE CHANGE THROUGH WEDNESDAY...STORM CHANCES
REMAIN VERY SLIGHT AND LIMITED TO THE HIGHER MOUNTAINS OF
SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA. TEMPERATURES WILL GRADUALLY WARM AS WELL. AN
APPROACHING PACIFIC WEATHER SYSTEM LATE NEXT WEEK WILL LEAD TO AN
INCREASE IN STORM CHANCES OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF SOUTH-CENTRAL
ARIZONA.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
LOW PRESSURE SPINNING OFF CALIFORNIA COAST WILL HAVE LITTLE FORWARD
PROPAGATION AND WILL SLOWLY MIGRATE NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE GREAT
BASIN THROUGHOUT THE COMING WEEKEND. WITH HIGH PRESSURE SITUATED
ACROSS NORTHERN MEXICO AND SOUTHERN NEW MEXICO...A SOUTHERLY FLOW
WILL CONTINUE TO STREAM IN SOME MOISTURE FROM THE TROPICS KEEPING
OUR MIXING RATIOS AND DEWPOINTS ELEVATED. CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION
SHOULD BE LIMITED TO HIGHER ELEVATION TERRAIN THROUGH MONDAY WHERE
THE INSTABILITY AND AXIS OF GREATEST DYNAMICS WILL RESIDE. NOT AN
IMPRESSIVE AMOUNT OF INSTABILITY IS FORECAST ACROSS THE LOWER AND
CENTRAL DESERTS THIS WEEKEND BUT CAN NOT RULE OUT A STRAY ISOLATED
SHOWER. FAIRLY MOIST COLUMN OF AIR IN PLACE...PW VALUES REMAINING
AROUND THE 1.5 INCH MARK...ALONG WITH SOME ASCENT FROM THE BOUNDARY
LAYER THROUGH MID-LAYERS /600-700MB OR 10-15K FT/.

MONDAY...AS THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PUSHES NORTHEAST THROUGH THE
GREAT BASIN...HIGH PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP BACK ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST
DESERTS ALLOWING THE TEMPERATURE TO NUDGE UP A DEGREE OR TWO EACH
DAY. THE PREVIOUS SHIFT DID WELL WITH TEMPERATURES SO VERY MINOR
CHANGES WERE MADE...KEEPING TEMPERATURES A HANDFUL OF DEGREES ABOVE
OR BELOW SEASONAL NORMAL /99F FOR PHOENIX AND 101F FOR YUMA/ THROUGH
THE WEEK. WITH A MORE WESTERLY COMPONENT IN THE WIND FLOW
PATTERN...MIXING RATIOS ARE FORECAST TO DROP DOWN AROUND 6-8 G/KG
RANGE FROM SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA INTO THE CENTRAL ARIZONA DESERTS
EARLY NEXT WEEK. EVEN WITH HIGH PRESSURE IN PLACE ACROSS NORTHERN
MEXICO...THE FAVORABLE WIND FLOW AND LACK OF MOISTURE SHOULD WARD
OFF OUR CHANCES FOR ANY STORMS THAT MAY TRY TO FORM. ENSEMBLE AND
DETERMINISTIC MODELS HAVE WELL ADVERTISED THE TROUGH FEATURE SLOWLY
MOVING NORTHWARD ONLY TO BE ABSORBED IN THE LONGWAVE TROUGH PATTERN.
EVEN PAST 115 HRS BOTH ECMWF AND GFS...AND RESPECTIVE ENSEMBLE
MEMBERS...HAVE THE NEXT UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WELL AGREED UPON BY
LATE WEEK THURSDAY/FRIDAY BEGINNING TO IMPACT THE WESTERN COAST.


.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION.../ISSUED 410 AM MST/PDT FRIDAY 19 SEPT/...
TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY...

MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...
WITH RIDGING BEGINNING TO BUILD IN MONDAY ALONG WITH SOME ADDITIONAL
DRYING...TEMPS WILL BE A BIT WARMER AND POPS WILL BE LIMITED TO LOW
END SLIGHT CHANCE OVER THE HIGHER MOUNTAINS OF SOUTH-CENTRAL
ARIZONA. LOOK FOR SLIGHT ADDITIONAL WARMING TUESDAY WITH LITTLE
CHANGE WEDNESDAY ALONG WITH  LITTLE CHANGE IN POPS. BY THURSDAY...A
PACIFIC TROUGH MOVES INLAND AND DRAWS SOME MOISTURE NORTHWARD.
SLIGHT CHANCE AREA WAS BROADENED BUT STILL CONFINED TO THE HIGHER
TERRAIN OF SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA.

&&

.AVIATION...
SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA INCLUDING KPHX...KIWA...AND KSDL...CURRENT
SCT-BKN 7-8K FT CIGS TO BECOME FEW-SCT BY THIS AFTERNOON AS SOMEWHAT
DRIER AIR FILTERS INTO THE REGION FROM THE WEST. SCT-BKN MID-LEVEL
CIGS TO RETURN AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT AS SOUTHERLY FLOW ALOFT PUSHES
MOISTURE BACK NORTHWARD INTO THE PHX AREA. WINDS TO MAINLY FOLLOW
THE USUAL DIURNAL TRENDS...WHILE REMAINING ON THE LIGHT
SIDE...MAINLY AOB 10KTS.

SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA AND SOUTHWEST ARIZONA INCLUDING KIPL AND KBLH...
CURRENT WESTERLY WINDS AT KIPL...AND SOUTHERLY WINDS AT KBLH...THAT
ARE NOW AROUND 10KTS...ARE EXPECTED TO DIMINISH TO AROUND...OR BELOW
5KTS BY MID-LATE MORNING. MAINLY CLEAR SKIES TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE
TAF PERIOD AT BOTH OF THE SE CA TERMINALS.

AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDED TAFS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...
RATHER DRY WESTERLY FLOW TO KEEP SKIES MAINLY CLEAR THROUGH THE
FORECAST PERIOD AT MOST LOCATIONS ACROSS THE REGION...WITH THE
EXCEPTION OF THE HIGHER TERRAIN NORTH AND EAST OF PHOENIX...WHERE
LINGERING MOISTURE MAY ALLOW ISOLATED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS TO
DEVELOP EACH AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING. MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITIES TO
FALL INTO THE 20 TO 30 PERCENT RANGE EACH AFTERNOON...WITH GOOD TO
EXCELLENT OVERNIGHT RECOVERIES. WINDS TO REMAIN MAINLY ON THE LIGHT
SIDE...MAINLY IN THE 5 TO 15 MPH RANGE...WITH THE USUAL DIURNAL
TRENDS TO PREVAIL AT MOST LOCATIONS.


&&

.PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

AZ...NONE.

CA...NONE.

&&

$$

VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/PHOENIX

DISCUSSION...DEWEY
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...AJ
AVIATION...PERCHA
FIRE WEATHER...PERCHA








000
FXUS65 KFGZ 191627
AFDFGZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ
927 AM MST FRI SEP 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
FOR TODAY...EXPECT A ROUND OF SCATTERED TO ISOLATED SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY...FAVORING MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN. AN AREA OF
LOW PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA AND
INTO NEVADA OVER THE WEEKEND. THIS WILL INCREASE THE CHANCES FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER NORTHERN ARIZONA. HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS INTO THE REGION EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH DRIER AND WARMER
WEATHER FORECAST.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
I INCREASED THE CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION FOR TODAY ACROSS
PORTIONS OF NORTHERN ARIZONA. THERE IS A GOOD PLUME OF MOISTURE
POSITIONED ACROSS THE CENTRAL PORTIONS OF THE REGION THIS MORNING.
THIS IS LIKELY A MAJOR CONTRIBUTOR TO THE ISOLATED SHOWER ACTIVITY
PRESENT ACROSS PORTIONS OF YAVAPAI AND COCONINO COUNTY THIS
MORNING. THE 12Z SOUNDING FROM BELLEMONT SHOWS A MID LEVEL
SUBSIDENCE INVERSION...WHICH MAY INHIBIT DEEP CONVECTION THIS
MORNING...BUT IS BREAKABLE WITH TDS IN THE 50S AND FORECAST HIGH
TEMPS IN THE LOW 70S. HI RES MODELS INDICATE SCATTERED ACTIVITY
OVER HIGHER TERRAIN AND SREF POP FORECASTS SHOW A CONSIDERABLE
INCREASE AS COMPARED TO YESTERDAYS FORECAST FOR TODAY. SIMILAR TO
YESTERDAY...STORMS WILL BE MOVING SLOWLY...SO EXPECT PROLONGED
PERIODS OF MODERATE TO HEAVY RAINFALL UNDER STRONGER...NEARLY
STATIONARY STORMS.

&&

.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION /315 AM MST/...
DEEP SOUTHERLY FLOW DEVELOPS TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY AHEAD OF THE
APPROACHING LOW WHICH DRAWS INCREASED MOISTURE NORTHWARD. AN
UPTICK IN SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IS ANTICIPATED OVER THE
WEEKEND AS THE UPPER LOW TRACKS THROUGH NEVADA AND INTERACTS WITH
THE ENHANCED MOISTURE ACROSS ARIZONA. ACTIVITY ON SATURDAY WILL
FAVOR AREAS FROM GRAND CANYON TO SHOW LOW WEST...SHIFTING TO
NORTHERN AND EASTERN ARIZONA ON SUNDAY.

SUBTROPICAL HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE SOUTHWEST FOR THE EARLY
PART OF NEXT WEEK LEADING TO A DRIER WESTERLY FLOW AND MUCH LESS
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY. HAVE TRENDED PRECIPITATION CHANCES
DOWNWARD...AND THEY MAY NEED TO BE REMOVED ENTIRELY IF TRENDS
CONTINUE. A DEEPER AND COLDER TROUGH IS FORECAST TO MOVE INTO THE
WEST LATE NEXT WEEK...LEADING TO BREEZY AND COOLER WEATHER WITH A
RETURN FOR RAIN CHANCES.

&&

.AVIATION...
FOR THE 18Z PACKAGE...EXPECT ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TODAY WITH ISOLATED IFR/MVFR CONDITIONS UNDER THE
STRONGER STORMS. THE HIGHEST CHANCES FOR SHOWERS WILL OCCUR ACROSS
THE YAVAPAI AND GILA COUNTY MOUNTAINS...MOGOLLON RIM...AND WHITE
MOUNTAINS REGIONS. STORM ACTIVITY WILL DIMINISH AFTER 03Z SATURDAY.
AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDMENTS.

&&

.FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC.........RR
AVIATION.......KD

FOR NORTHERN ARIZONA WEATHER INFORMATION VISIT
WEATHER.GOV/FLAGSTAFF





000
FXUS65 KFGZ 191627
AFDFGZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ
927 AM MST FRI SEP 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
FOR TODAY...EXPECT A ROUND OF SCATTERED TO ISOLATED SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY...FAVORING MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN. AN AREA OF
LOW PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA AND
INTO NEVADA OVER THE WEEKEND. THIS WILL INCREASE THE CHANCES FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER NORTHERN ARIZONA. HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS INTO THE REGION EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH DRIER AND WARMER
WEATHER FORECAST.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
I INCREASED THE CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION FOR TODAY ACROSS
PORTIONS OF NORTHERN ARIZONA. THERE IS A GOOD PLUME OF MOISTURE
POSITIONED ACROSS THE CENTRAL PORTIONS OF THE REGION THIS MORNING.
THIS IS LIKELY A MAJOR CONTRIBUTOR TO THE ISOLATED SHOWER ACTIVITY
PRESENT ACROSS PORTIONS OF YAVAPAI AND COCONINO COUNTY THIS
MORNING. THE 12Z SOUNDING FROM BELLEMONT SHOWS A MID LEVEL
SUBSIDENCE INVERSION...WHICH MAY INHIBIT DEEP CONVECTION THIS
MORNING...BUT IS BREAKABLE WITH TDS IN THE 50S AND FORECAST HIGH
TEMPS IN THE LOW 70S. HI RES MODELS INDICATE SCATTERED ACTIVITY
OVER HIGHER TERRAIN AND SREF POP FORECASTS SHOW A CONSIDERABLE
INCREASE AS COMPARED TO YESTERDAYS FORECAST FOR TODAY. SIMILAR TO
YESTERDAY...STORMS WILL BE MOVING SLOWLY...SO EXPECT PROLONGED
PERIODS OF MODERATE TO HEAVY RAINFALL UNDER STRONGER...NEARLY
STATIONARY STORMS.

&&

.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION /315 AM MST/...
DEEP SOUTHERLY FLOW DEVELOPS TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY AHEAD OF THE
APPROACHING LOW WHICH DRAWS INCREASED MOISTURE NORTHWARD. AN
UPTICK IN SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IS ANTICIPATED OVER THE
WEEKEND AS THE UPPER LOW TRACKS THROUGH NEVADA AND INTERACTS WITH
THE ENHANCED MOISTURE ACROSS ARIZONA. ACTIVITY ON SATURDAY WILL
FAVOR AREAS FROM GRAND CANYON TO SHOW LOW WEST...SHIFTING TO
NORTHERN AND EASTERN ARIZONA ON SUNDAY.

SUBTROPICAL HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE SOUTHWEST FOR THE EARLY
PART OF NEXT WEEK LEADING TO A DRIER WESTERLY FLOW AND MUCH LESS
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY. HAVE TRENDED PRECIPITATION CHANCES
DOWNWARD...AND THEY MAY NEED TO BE REMOVED ENTIRELY IF TRENDS
CONTINUE. A DEEPER AND COLDER TROUGH IS FORECAST TO MOVE INTO THE
WEST LATE NEXT WEEK...LEADING TO BREEZY AND COOLER WEATHER WITH A
RETURN FOR RAIN CHANCES.

&&

.AVIATION...
FOR THE 18Z PACKAGE...EXPECT ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TODAY WITH ISOLATED IFR/MVFR CONDITIONS UNDER THE
STRONGER STORMS. THE HIGHEST CHANCES FOR SHOWERS WILL OCCUR ACROSS
THE YAVAPAI AND GILA COUNTY MOUNTAINS...MOGOLLON RIM...AND WHITE
MOUNTAINS REGIONS. STORM ACTIVITY WILL DIMINISH AFTER 03Z SATURDAY.
AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDMENTS.

&&

.FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC.........RR
AVIATION.......KD

FOR NORTHERN ARIZONA WEATHER INFORMATION VISIT
WEATHER.GOV/FLAGSTAFF





000
FXUS65 KFGZ 191627
AFDFGZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ
927 AM MST FRI SEP 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
FOR TODAY...EXPECT A ROUND OF SCATTERED TO ISOLATED SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY...FAVORING MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN. AN AREA OF
LOW PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA AND
INTO NEVADA OVER THE WEEKEND. THIS WILL INCREASE THE CHANCES FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER NORTHERN ARIZONA. HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS INTO THE REGION EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH DRIER AND WARMER
WEATHER FORECAST.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
I INCREASED THE CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION FOR TODAY ACROSS
PORTIONS OF NORTHERN ARIZONA. THERE IS A GOOD PLUME OF MOISTURE
POSITIONED ACROSS THE CENTRAL PORTIONS OF THE REGION THIS MORNING.
THIS IS LIKELY A MAJOR CONTRIBUTOR TO THE ISOLATED SHOWER ACTIVITY
PRESENT ACROSS PORTIONS OF YAVAPAI AND COCONINO COUNTY THIS
MORNING. THE 12Z SOUNDING FROM BELLEMONT SHOWS A MID LEVEL
SUBSIDENCE INVERSION...WHICH MAY INHIBIT DEEP CONVECTION THIS
MORNING...BUT IS BREAKABLE WITH TDS IN THE 50S AND FORECAST HIGH
TEMPS IN THE LOW 70S. HI RES MODELS INDICATE SCATTERED ACTIVITY
OVER HIGHER TERRAIN AND SREF POP FORECASTS SHOW A CONSIDERABLE
INCREASE AS COMPARED TO YESTERDAYS FORECAST FOR TODAY. SIMILAR TO
YESTERDAY...STORMS WILL BE MOVING SLOWLY...SO EXPECT PROLONGED
PERIODS OF MODERATE TO HEAVY RAINFALL UNDER STRONGER...NEARLY
STATIONARY STORMS.

&&

.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION /315 AM MST/...
DEEP SOUTHERLY FLOW DEVELOPS TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY AHEAD OF THE
APPROACHING LOW WHICH DRAWS INCREASED MOISTURE NORTHWARD. AN
UPTICK IN SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IS ANTICIPATED OVER THE
WEEKEND AS THE UPPER LOW TRACKS THROUGH NEVADA AND INTERACTS WITH
THE ENHANCED MOISTURE ACROSS ARIZONA. ACTIVITY ON SATURDAY WILL
FAVOR AREAS FROM GRAND CANYON TO SHOW LOW WEST...SHIFTING TO
NORTHERN AND EASTERN ARIZONA ON SUNDAY.

SUBTROPICAL HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE SOUTHWEST FOR THE EARLY
PART OF NEXT WEEK LEADING TO A DRIER WESTERLY FLOW AND MUCH LESS
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY. HAVE TRENDED PRECIPITATION CHANCES
DOWNWARD...AND THEY MAY NEED TO BE REMOVED ENTIRELY IF TRENDS
CONTINUE. A DEEPER AND COLDER TROUGH IS FORECAST TO MOVE INTO THE
WEST LATE NEXT WEEK...LEADING TO BREEZY AND COOLER WEATHER WITH A
RETURN FOR RAIN CHANCES.

&&

.AVIATION...
FOR THE 18Z PACKAGE...EXPECT ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TODAY WITH ISOLATED IFR/MVFR CONDITIONS UNDER THE
STRONGER STORMS. THE HIGHEST CHANCES FOR SHOWERS WILL OCCUR ACROSS
THE YAVAPAI AND GILA COUNTY MOUNTAINS...MOGOLLON RIM...AND WHITE
MOUNTAINS REGIONS. STORM ACTIVITY WILL DIMINISH AFTER 03Z SATURDAY.
AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDMENTS.

&&

.FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC.........RR
AVIATION.......KD

FOR NORTHERN ARIZONA WEATHER INFORMATION VISIT
WEATHER.GOV/FLAGSTAFF





000
FXUS65 KFGZ 191627
AFDFGZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ
927 AM MST FRI SEP 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
FOR TODAY...EXPECT A ROUND OF SCATTERED TO ISOLATED SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY...FAVORING MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN. AN AREA OF
LOW PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA AND
INTO NEVADA OVER THE WEEKEND. THIS WILL INCREASE THE CHANCES FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER NORTHERN ARIZONA. HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS INTO THE REGION EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH DRIER AND WARMER
WEATHER FORECAST.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
I INCREASED THE CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION FOR TODAY ACROSS
PORTIONS OF NORTHERN ARIZONA. THERE IS A GOOD PLUME OF MOISTURE
POSITIONED ACROSS THE CENTRAL PORTIONS OF THE REGION THIS MORNING.
THIS IS LIKELY A MAJOR CONTRIBUTOR TO THE ISOLATED SHOWER ACTIVITY
PRESENT ACROSS PORTIONS OF YAVAPAI AND COCONINO COUNTY THIS
MORNING. THE 12Z SOUNDING FROM BELLEMONT SHOWS A MID LEVEL
SUBSIDENCE INVERSION...WHICH MAY INHIBIT DEEP CONVECTION THIS
MORNING...BUT IS BREAKABLE WITH TDS IN THE 50S AND FORECAST HIGH
TEMPS IN THE LOW 70S. HI RES MODELS INDICATE SCATTERED ACTIVITY
OVER HIGHER TERRAIN AND SREF POP FORECASTS SHOW A CONSIDERABLE
INCREASE AS COMPARED TO YESTERDAYS FORECAST FOR TODAY. SIMILAR TO
YESTERDAY...STORMS WILL BE MOVING SLOWLY...SO EXPECT PROLONGED
PERIODS OF MODERATE TO HEAVY RAINFALL UNDER STRONGER...NEARLY
STATIONARY STORMS.

&&

.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION /315 AM MST/...
DEEP SOUTHERLY FLOW DEVELOPS TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY AHEAD OF THE
APPROACHING LOW WHICH DRAWS INCREASED MOISTURE NORTHWARD. AN
UPTICK IN SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IS ANTICIPATED OVER THE
WEEKEND AS THE UPPER LOW TRACKS THROUGH NEVADA AND INTERACTS WITH
THE ENHANCED MOISTURE ACROSS ARIZONA. ACTIVITY ON SATURDAY WILL
FAVOR AREAS FROM GRAND CANYON TO SHOW LOW WEST...SHIFTING TO
NORTHERN AND EASTERN ARIZONA ON SUNDAY.

SUBTROPICAL HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE SOUTHWEST FOR THE EARLY
PART OF NEXT WEEK LEADING TO A DRIER WESTERLY FLOW AND MUCH LESS
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY. HAVE TRENDED PRECIPITATION CHANCES
DOWNWARD...AND THEY MAY NEED TO BE REMOVED ENTIRELY IF TRENDS
CONTINUE. A DEEPER AND COLDER TROUGH IS FORECAST TO MOVE INTO THE
WEST LATE NEXT WEEK...LEADING TO BREEZY AND COOLER WEATHER WITH A
RETURN FOR RAIN CHANCES.

&&

.AVIATION...
FOR THE 18Z PACKAGE...EXPECT ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TODAY WITH ISOLATED IFR/MVFR CONDITIONS UNDER THE
STRONGER STORMS. THE HIGHEST CHANCES FOR SHOWERS WILL OCCUR ACROSS
THE YAVAPAI AND GILA COUNTY MOUNTAINS...MOGOLLON RIM...AND WHITE
MOUNTAINS REGIONS. STORM ACTIVITY WILL DIMINISH AFTER 03Z SATURDAY.
AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDMENTS.

&&

.FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC.........RR
AVIATION.......KD

FOR NORTHERN ARIZONA WEATHER INFORMATION VISIT
WEATHER.GOV/FLAGSTAFF





000
FXUS65 KTWC 191604
AFDTWC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ
905 AM MST FRI SEP 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...LINGERING MOISTURE WILL MAINTAIN A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS INTO THIS WEEKEND. HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT COULD PROVIDE
REDUCED RAINFALL CHANCES NEXT WEEK. EXPECT GRADUALLY WARMER DAYTIME
TEMPERATURES INTO THIS WEEKEND.

&&

.DISCUSSION...WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS RIDGING TO OUR SOUTH OVER
MEXICO...WITH AN APPROACHING PACIFIC TROUGH THAT EXTENDS FROM THE
NORTHERN ROCKIES THROUGH NORTH CENTRAL CALIFORNIA AND INTO THE
COASTAL WATERS. PLENTY OF DRY MID TO UPPER LEVEL AIR COVERS MUCH OF
THE DESERT SOUTHWEST...NORTHERN MEXICO AND THE EASTERN PACIFIC
WATERS. THIS IS REFLECTED IN THIS MORNINGS KTWC SOUNDING WHICH SHOWS
SIGNIFICANT DRYING ABOVE 600MB COMPARED TO 24 HOURS AGO. THE
UNMODIFIED SOUNDING INDICATED A PRECIPITABLE WATER (PW) VALUE OF
1.65 INCHES COMPARED TO 1.94 INCHES FROM THURSDAY MORNING. THE
LIFTED INDEX WAS MINUS 2...WITH A CAPE OF AROUND 1900 J/KG.
MODIFYING THE SOUNDING USING T=90;TD=64 YIELDS A SIMILAR LI...BUT A
CAPE OF AROUND 1500 J/KG. THAT SAID...WE SHOULD STILL SEE SCATTERED
TO LOCALLY NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE TO
DEVELOP...ESPECIALLY IF WE START TO SEE MORE SUN PEEK THROUGH THE
CLOUDINESS.

IR AND VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY CONTINUE TO SHOW EXTENSIVE LOW AND
MID LEVEL CLOUDINESS COVERING A LARGE PART OF THE FORECAST
AREA...BUT WE SHOULD BEGIN TO SEE SOME OF THE CLOUDINESS ERODE AS
THE DAY PROGRESSES.

THE LATEST RADAR MOSAIC SHOWS A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS MAINLY OVER
EASTERN PIMA COUNTY AT THIS TIME. EARLIER THIS MORNING THESE SHOWERS
WERE AFFECTING PORTIONS OF THE TUCSON METRO. PRIOR TO SUNRISE A
SHOWER PRODUCED CONSIDERABLE RAIN AT THE SALCIDO PLACE GAUGE...WHICH
IS EAST OF VAIL AND NORTH OF INTERSTATE 10 NEAR THE COCHISE COUNTY
LINE...WHEN IT PICKED UP 1.89 INCHES IN THE PAST 6 HOURS.

SO...EXPECT TO SEE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS INCREASE THROUGH THE
DAY...WITH THE FOCUS MAINLY SOUTH AND EAST OF TUCSON...BUT MOSTLY
SCATTERED IN NATURE.

THE INHERITED FORECAST SEEMS TO BE ON TRACK...SO NO CHANGES ARE
PLANNED AT THIS TIME...BUT WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR SATELLITE AND
RADAR TRENDS.

&&

.AVIATION...VALID THRU 20/18Z.
EXPECT ISOLATED TO SCATTERED -SHRA/-TSRA TO REDEVELOP ACROSS SE AZ
THIS AFTERNOON AND CONTINUE UNTIL ABOUT 20/02Z. MVFR CIGS AND VSBYS
PRESENT THIS MORNING WILL MAINLY BE CONFINED TO MORE INTENSE SHOWERS
THIS AFTERNOON...A FEW AREAS OF MVFR CIGS AND MT OBSCURATIONS COULD
DEVELOP AGAIN TOWARD SATURDAY MORNING. SURFACE WINDS WILL BE MAINLY
LESS THAN 10 KTS. AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR TAF AMENDMENTS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...MOISTURE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE INTO NEXT
WEEK..FUELING CHANCES FOR ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.CLIMATE...THE TUCSON AIRPORT HAS RECORDED 3 STRAIGHT DAYS WITH
HIGHS LESS THAN 85 DEGREES. THIS IS THE LONGEST SEPTEMBER STRETCH
SINCE 1985.

&&

.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...THE WEAK UPPER LOW OFF THE CENTRAL CALIFORNIA
COAST WILL DROP SOUTH TODAY BEFORE BOTTOMING OUT WEST OF LOS ANGELES
THEN LIFT NE INTO NEVADA BY SUNDAY MORNING. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
MAINLY AFTERNOON/EVENING STORMS WITH BEST CHANCES FROM TUCSON EAST.

POTENTIALLY DRIER AIR COULD MOVE OVER THE AREA EARLY NEXT WEEK
UNDER WLY FLOW ALOFT WITH UPPER HIGH CENTERED TO OUR SOUTH. HIGHS
WILL BE AT OR NEAR NORMALS NEXT WEEK.

&&

.TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...YOUTUBE...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/TUCSON

PUBLIC...MOLLERE
AVIATION/FIRE WEATHER...DROZD






000
FXUS65 KTWC 191604
AFDTWC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ
905 AM MST FRI SEP 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...LINGERING MOISTURE WILL MAINTAIN A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS INTO THIS WEEKEND. HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT COULD PROVIDE
REDUCED RAINFALL CHANCES NEXT WEEK. EXPECT GRADUALLY WARMER DAYTIME
TEMPERATURES INTO THIS WEEKEND.

&&

.DISCUSSION...WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS RIDGING TO OUR SOUTH OVER
MEXICO...WITH AN APPROACHING PACIFIC TROUGH THAT EXTENDS FROM THE
NORTHERN ROCKIES THROUGH NORTH CENTRAL CALIFORNIA AND INTO THE
COASTAL WATERS. PLENTY OF DRY MID TO UPPER LEVEL AIR COVERS MUCH OF
THE DESERT SOUTHWEST...NORTHERN MEXICO AND THE EASTERN PACIFIC
WATERS. THIS IS REFLECTED IN THIS MORNINGS KTWC SOUNDING WHICH SHOWS
SIGNIFICANT DRYING ABOVE 600MB COMPARED TO 24 HOURS AGO. THE
UNMODIFIED SOUNDING INDICATED A PRECIPITABLE WATER (PW) VALUE OF
1.65 INCHES COMPARED TO 1.94 INCHES FROM THURSDAY MORNING. THE
LIFTED INDEX WAS MINUS 2...WITH A CAPE OF AROUND 1900 J/KG.
MODIFYING THE SOUNDING USING T=90;TD=64 YIELDS A SIMILAR LI...BUT A
CAPE OF AROUND 1500 J/KG. THAT SAID...WE SHOULD STILL SEE SCATTERED
TO LOCALLY NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE TO
DEVELOP...ESPECIALLY IF WE START TO SEE MORE SUN PEEK THROUGH THE
CLOUDINESS.

IR AND VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY CONTINUE TO SHOW EXTENSIVE LOW AND
MID LEVEL CLOUDINESS COVERING A LARGE PART OF THE FORECAST
AREA...BUT WE SHOULD BEGIN TO SEE SOME OF THE CLOUDINESS ERODE AS
THE DAY PROGRESSES.

THE LATEST RADAR MOSAIC SHOWS A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS MAINLY OVER
EASTERN PIMA COUNTY AT THIS TIME. EARLIER THIS MORNING THESE SHOWERS
WERE AFFECTING PORTIONS OF THE TUCSON METRO. PRIOR TO SUNRISE A
SHOWER PRODUCED CONSIDERABLE RAIN AT THE SALCIDO PLACE GAUGE...WHICH
IS EAST OF VAIL AND NORTH OF INTERSTATE 10 NEAR THE COCHISE COUNTY
LINE...WHEN IT PICKED UP 1.89 INCHES IN THE PAST 6 HOURS.

SO...EXPECT TO SEE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS INCREASE THROUGH THE
DAY...WITH THE FOCUS MAINLY SOUTH AND EAST OF TUCSON...BUT MOSTLY
SCATTERED IN NATURE.

THE INHERITED FORECAST SEEMS TO BE ON TRACK...SO NO CHANGES ARE
PLANNED AT THIS TIME...BUT WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR SATELLITE AND
RADAR TRENDS.

&&

.AVIATION...VALID THRU 20/18Z.
EXPECT ISOLATED TO SCATTERED -SHRA/-TSRA TO REDEVELOP ACROSS SE AZ
THIS AFTERNOON AND CONTINUE UNTIL ABOUT 20/02Z. MVFR CIGS AND VSBYS
PRESENT THIS MORNING WILL MAINLY BE CONFINED TO MORE INTENSE SHOWERS
THIS AFTERNOON...A FEW AREAS OF MVFR CIGS AND MT OBSCURATIONS COULD
DEVELOP AGAIN TOWARD SATURDAY MORNING. SURFACE WINDS WILL BE MAINLY
LESS THAN 10 KTS. AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR TAF AMENDMENTS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...MOISTURE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE INTO NEXT
WEEK..FUELING CHANCES FOR ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.CLIMATE...THE TUCSON AIRPORT HAS RECORDED 3 STRAIGHT DAYS WITH
HIGHS LESS THAN 85 DEGREES. THIS IS THE LONGEST SEPTEMBER STRETCH
SINCE 1985.

&&

.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...THE WEAK UPPER LOW OFF THE CENTRAL CALIFORNIA
COAST WILL DROP SOUTH TODAY BEFORE BOTTOMING OUT WEST OF LOS ANGELES
THEN LIFT NE INTO NEVADA BY SUNDAY MORNING. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
MAINLY AFTERNOON/EVENING STORMS WITH BEST CHANCES FROM TUCSON EAST.

POTENTIALLY DRIER AIR COULD MOVE OVER THE AREA EARLY NEXT WEEK
UNDER WLY FLOW ALOFT WITH UPPER HIGH CENTERED TO OUR SOUTH. HIGHS
WILL BE AT OR NEAR NORMALS NEXT WEEK.

&&

.TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...YOUTUBE...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/TUCSON

PUBLIC...MOLLERE
AVIATION/FIRE WEATHER...DROZD






000
FXUS65 KTWC 191604
AFDTWC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ
905 AM MST FRI SEP 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...LINGERING MOISTURE WILL MAINTAIN A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS INTO THIS WEEKEND. HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT COULD PROVIDE
REDUCED RAINFALL CHANCES NEXT WEEK. EXPECT GRADUALLY WARMER DAYTIME
TEMPERATURES INTO THIS WEEKEND.

&&

.DISCUSSION...WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS RIDGING TO OUR SOUTH OVER
MEXICO...WITH AN APPROACHING PACIFIC TROUGH THAT EXTENDS FROM THE
NORTHERN ROCKIES THROUGH NORTH CENTRAL CALIFORNIA AND INTO THE
COASTAL WATERS. PLENTY OF DRY MID TO UPPER LEVEL AIR COVERS MUCH OF
THE DESERT SOUTHWEST...NORTHERN MEXICO AND THE EASTERN PACIFIC
WATERS. THIS IS REFLECTED IN THIS MORNINGS KTWC SOUNDING WHICH SHOWS
SIGNIFICANT DRYING ABOVE 600MB COMPARED TO 24 HOURS AGO. THE
UNMODIFIED SOUNDING INDICATED A PRECIPITABLE WATER (PW) VALUE OF
1.65 INCHES COMPARED TO 1.94 INCHES FROM THURSDAY MORNING. THE
LIFTED INDEX WAS MINUS 2...WITH A CAPE OF AROUND 1900 J/KG.
MODIFYING THE SOUNDING USING T=90;TD=64 YIELDS A SIMILAR LI...BUT A
CAPE OF AROUND 1500 J/KG. THAT SAID...WE SHOULD STILL SEE SCATTERED
TO LOCALLY NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE TO
DEVELOP...ESPECIALLY IF WE START TO SEE MORE SUN PEEK THROUGH THE
CLOUDINESS.

IR AND VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY CONTINUE TO SHOW EXTENSIVE LOW AND
MID LEVEL CLOUDINESS COVERING A LARGE PART OF THE FORECAST
AREA...BUT WE SHOULD BEGIN TO SEE SOME OF THE CLOUDINESS ERODE AS
THE DAY PROGRESSES.

THE LATEST RADAR MOSAIC SHOWS A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS MAINLY OVER
EASTERN PIMA COUNTY AT THIS TIME. EARLIER THIS MORNING THESE SHOWERS
WERE AFFECTING PORTIONS OF THE TUCSON METRO. PRIOR TO SUNRISE A
SHOWER PRODUCED CONSIDERABLE RAIN AT THE SALCIDO PLACE GAUGE...WHICH
IS EAST OF VAIL AND NORTH OF INTERSTATE 10 NEAR THE COCHISE COUNTY
LINE...WHEN IT PICKED UP 1.89 INCHES IN THE PAST 6 HOURS.

SO...EXPECT TO SEE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS INCREASE THROUGH THE
DAY...WITH THE FOCUS MAINLY SOUTH AND EAST OF TUCSON...BUT MOSTLY
SCATTERED IN NATURE.

THE INHERITED FORECAST SEEMS TO BE ON TRACK...SO NO CHANGES ARE
PLANNED AT THIS TIME...BUT WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR SATELLITE AND
RADAR TRENDS.

&&

.AVIATION...VALID THRU 20/18Z.
EXPECT ISOLATED TO SCATTERED -SHRA/-TSRA TO REDEVELOP ACROSS SE AZ
THIS AFTERNOON AND CONTINUE UNTIL ABOUT 20/02Z. MVFR CIGS AND VSBYS
PRESENT THIS MORNING WILL MAINLY BE CONFINED TO MORE INTENSE SHOWERS
THIS AFTERNOON...A FEW AREAS OF MVFR CIGS AND MT OBSCURATIONS COULD
DEVELOP AGAIN TOWARD SATURDAY MORNING. SURFACE WINDS WILL BE MAINLY
LESS THAN 10 KTS. AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR TAF AMENDMENTS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...MOISTURE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE INTO NEXT
WEEK..FUELING CHANCES FOR ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.CLIMATE...THE TUCSON AIRPORT HAS RECORDED 3 STRAIGHT DAYS WITH
HIGHS LESS THAN 85 DEGREES. THIS IS THE LONGEST SEPTEMBER STRETCH
SINCE 1985.

&&

.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...THE WEAK UPPER LOW OFF THE CENTRAL CALIFORNIA
COAST WILL DROP SOUTH TODAY BEFORE BOTTOMING OUT WEST OF LOS ANGELES
THEN LIFT NE INTO NEVADA BY SUNDAY MORNING. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
MAINLY AFTERNOON/EVENING STORMS WITH BEST CHANCES FROM TUCSON EAST.

POTENTIALLY DRIER AIR COULD MOVE OVER THE AREA EARLY NEXT WEEK
UNDER WLY FLOW ALOFT WITH UPPER HIGH CENTERED TO OUR SOUTH. HIGHS
WILL BE AT OR NEAR NORMALS NEXT WEEK.

&&

.TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...YOUTUBE...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/TUCSON

PUBLIC...MOLLERE
AVIATION/FIRE WEATHER...DROZD






000
FXUS65 KTWC 191604
AFDTWC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ
905 AM MST FRI SEP 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...LINGERING MOISTURE WILL MAINTAIN A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS INTO THIS WEEKEND. HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT COULD PROVIDE
REDUCED RAINFALL CHANCES NEXT WEEK. EXPECT GRADUALLY WARMER DAYTIME
TEMPERATURES INTO THIS WEEKEND.

&&

.DISCUSSION...WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS RIDGING TO OUR SOUTH OVER
MEXICO...WITH AN APPROACHING PACIFIC TROUGH THAT EXTENDS FROM THE
NORTHERN ROCKIES THROUGH NORTH CENTRAL CALIFORNIA AND INTO THE
COASTAL WATERS. PLENTY OF DRY MID TO UPPER LEVEL AIR COVERS MUCH OF
THE DESERT SOUTHWEST...NORTHERN MEXICO AND THE EASTERN PACIFIC
WATERS. THIS IS REFLECTED IN THIS MORNINGS KTWC SOUNDING WHICH SHOWS
SIGNIFICANT DRYING ABOVE 600MB COMPARED TO 24 HOURS AGO. THE
UNMODIFIED SOUNDING INDICATED A PRECIPITABLE WATER (PW) VALUE OF
1.65 INCHES COMPARED TO 1.94 INCHES FROM THURSDAY MORNING. THE
LIFTED INDEX WAS MINUS 2...WITH A CAPE OF AROUND 1900 J/KG.
MODIFYING THE SOUNDING USING T=90;TD=64 YIELDS A SIMILAR LI...BUT A
CAPE OF AROUND 1500 J/KG. THAT SAID...WE SHOULD STILL SEE SCATTERED
TO LOCALLY NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE TO
DEVELOP...ESPECIALLY IF WE START TO SEE MORE SUN PEEK THROUGH THE
CLOUDINESS.

IR AND VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY CONTINUE TO SHOW EXTENSIVE LOW AND
MID LEVEL CLOUDINESS COVERING A LARGE PART OF THE FORECAST
AREA...BUT WE SHOULD BEGIN TO SEE SOME OF THE CLOUDINESS ERODE AS
THE DAY PROGRESSES.

THE LATEST RADAR MOSAIC SHOWS A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS MAINLY OVER
EASTERN PIMA COUNTY AT THIS TIME. EARLIER THIS MORNING THESE SHOWERS
WERE AFFECTING PORTIONS OF THE TUCSON METRO. PRIOR TO SUNRISE A
SHOWER PRODUCED CONSIDERABLE RAIN AT THE SALCIDO PLACE GAUGE...WHICH
IS EAST OF VAIL AND NORTH OF INTERSTATE 10 NEAR THE COCHISE COUNTY
LINE...WHEN IT PICKED UP 1.89 INCHES IN THE PAST 6 HOURS.

SO...EXPECT TO SEE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS INCREASE THROUGH THE
DAY...WITH THE FOCUS MAINLY SOUTH AND EAST OF TUCSON...BUT MOSTLY
SCATTERED IN NATURE.

THE INHERITED FORECAST SEEMS TO BE ON TRACK...SO NO CHANGES ARE
PLANNED AT THIS TIME...BUT WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR SATELLITE AND
RADAR TRENDS.

&&

.AVIATION...VALID THRU 20/18Z.
EXPECT ISOLATED TO SCATTERED -SHRA/-TSRA TO REDEVELOP ACROSS SE AZ
THIS AFTERNOON AND CONTINUE UNTIL ABOUT 20/02Z. MVFR CIGS AND VSBYS
PRESENT THIS MORNING WILL MAINLY BE CONFINED TO MORE INTENSE SHOWERS
THIS AFTERNOON...A FEW AREAS OF MVFR CIGS AND MT OBSCURATIONS COULD
DEVELOP AGAIN TOWARD SATURDAY MORNING. SURFACE WINDS WILL BE MAINLY
LESS THAN 10 KTS. AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR TAF AMENDMENTS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...MOISTURE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE INTO NEXT
WEEK..FUELING CHANCES FOR ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.CLIMATE...THE TUCSON AIRPORT HAS RECORDED 3 STRAIGHT DAYS WITH
HIGHS LESS THAN 85 DEGREES. THIS IS THE LONGEST SEPTEMBER STRETCH
SINCE 1985.

&&

.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...THE WEAK UPPER LOW OFF THE CENTRAL CALIFORNIA
COAST WILL DROP SOUTH TODAY BEFORE BOTTOMING OUT WEST OF LOS ANGELES
THEN LIFT NE INTO NEVADA BY SUNDAY MORNING. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
MAINLY AFTERNOON/EVENING STORMS WITH BEST CHANCES FROM TUCSON EAST.

POTENTIALLY DRIER AIR COULD MOVE OVER THE AREA EARLY NEXT WEEK
UNDER WLY FLOW ALOFT WITH UPPER HIGH CENTERED TO OUR SOUTH. HIGHS
WILL BE AT OR NEAR NORMALS NEXT WEEK.

&&

.TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...YOUTUBE...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/TUCSON

PUBLIC...MOLLERE
AVIATION/FIRE WEATHER...DROZD






000
FXUS65 KPSR 191541
AFDPSR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PHOENIX AZ
840 AM MST FRI SEP 19 2014


.SYNOPSIS...
LINGERING MOISTURE ACROSS THE REGION AND LOW PRESSURE APPROACHING
FROM THE WEST WILL KEEP AT LEAST SLIGHT CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS IN THE FORECAST TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY. DRIER AIR WILL
GRADUALLY FILTER INTO THE REGION SUNDAY FOR A DECLINE IN STORM
CHANCES. SOME ADDITIONAL DRYING MONDAY...WITH LITTLE CHANGE THROUGH
WEDNESDAY...WILL KEEP STORM CHANCES VERY SLIGHT AND LIMITED TO THE
HIGHER MOUNTAINS OF SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA. TEMPERATURES WILL BE
WARMER AS WELL. AN APPROACHING PACIFIC WEATHER SYSTEM LATE NEXT WEEK
WILL LEAD TO AN INCREASE IN STORM CHANCES OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF
SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
QUITE A BIT OF MOISTURE STILL PRESENT ACROSS THE LOWER DESERTS THIS
MORNING. DEWPOINTS FROM FAR SOUTHEAST ARIZONA TO NORTH-CENTRAL
ARIZONA IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOW 70S...AND EVEN ACROSS SOUTHERN
CALIFORNIA FROM THE COAST TO THE LOWER DESERTS WITH SIMILAR VALUES.
CLOUD COVER REMAINING THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS WITH BASES 8-10K
FT AS DEPICTED BY THE 12Z PSR SOUNDING...A VERY MOIST LAYER AND
COLUMN WITH OVER 1.7 INCHES OF PRECIPITABLE WATER AND WEAK WIND
PROFILE. NOTABLE BOUNDARY OF MOISTURE FROM SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA
STRETCHING NORTHEAST TOWARDS FOUR-CORNERS AREA...WITH AN APPROACHING
TROUGH MOVING ON TO THE WEST COAST THIS WEEKEND. FOR
TODAY...ISOLATED SHOWER CHANCES SHOULD REMAIN VERY SLIGHT AND MOSTLY
TERRAIN DRIVEN AS DEPICTED IN LOCAL HIGH-RES MODEL FORECASTS. NO
UPDATES NEEDED FOR THE FORECAST PACKAGE AT THIS TIME.


.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION.../ISSUED 410 AM MST/PDT FRIDAY 19 SEPT/...
TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY...
SATELLITE IMAGERY EARLY THIS MORNING SHOWS A FAIR AMOUNT OF CLOUD
COVER OVER ARIZONA...INCLUDING OUR FORECAST AREA. PHOENIX AREA
METARS HAVE THE BASES AT 8-10 KFT AGL. MOST OF THE CLOUD TOPS ARE
AROUND...OR WARMER THAN...0 DEG C. SOME OF THE CLOUDINESS IS COLDER
THAN THAT WHICH INDICATES A DEEPER CLOUD AND BETTER POTENTIAL TO
PRODUCE PRECIP. WATER VAPOR LOOP INDICATES THERE WERE A COUPLE OF
VORT MAXES THAT HAVE SHIFTED EASTWARD INTO NEW MEXICO. IT ALSO SHOWS
A TROUGH CENTERED ROUGHLY ALONG THE CALIFORNIA COAST WITH MULTIPLE
VORT MAXES MOVING THROUGH AND STRONGER SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT
APPROACHING THE FORECAST AREA. BLENDED TPW IMAGERY SHOWS A FAIRLY
SHARP MOISTURE GRADIENT OVER FAR WESTERN ARIZONA. LATEST MODELS HAVE
ALL BEEN DEPICTING QPF OVER EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA
THIS MORNING. HOWEVER...MOST OF THEM GENERATED QPF BETWEEN 0-6Z
WHICH DID NOT HAPPEN AT ALL. THEY SHOWED EVEN MORE BETWEEN 6-12Z
WHICH HAS NOT HAPPENED YET. IT MAY BE A REFLECTION OF A
JETLET...AHEAD OF A STRONGER JET CLOSER TO THE MAIN TROUGH
AXIS...FORECAST TO MOVE INTO ARIZONA AND WEAKEN LATER TODAY. OF
NOTE...MODELS ARE GENERALLY SHOWING MORE QPF IN THE 12-18Z TIME
FRAME THAN 18Z-00Z...LIKELY DUE TO DRIER AIR MOVING IN. LOCAL WRF
HAS BEEN THE MOST CONSERVATIVE IN TERMS OF AREAL COVERAGE AND THUS
IT APPEARS TO BE DOING BETTER THAN MANY OTHER MODELS. EVEN
STILL...IT GENERATES SOME LARGE QPF BULLSEYES OVER THE MAZATZALS AND
FOUR PEAKS WHICH LOOKS OVERDONE. HELD OFF ON EXPANDING THE SLIGHT
CHANCE AREA FOR THIS MORNING DUE TO DISCONNECT BETWEEN OBSERVED
CONDITIONS AND MODEL FORECAST. HOWEVER...HELD ON TO SLIGHT CHANCE
THIS AFTERNOON OVER OUR EASTERN AREAS AS SURFACE HEATING WILL BE
BETTER.

MODELS ARE IN AGREEMENT THAT A VORT MAX WITHIN THE PACIFIC TROUGH
WILL BECOME THE MAIN CIRCULATION CENTER AND BECOMES A CUTOFF LOW FOR
A SHORT TIME. MEANWHILE...AN ANTICYCLONE BECOMES CENTERED OVER
COLORADO. IN TURN...MOISTURE PUSHES WEST AND NORTHWARD...A REVERSAL
OF THE PREVIOUS DRY ADVECTION. A JET STREAK TRACKS ACROSS SOUTHEAST
CALIFORNIA AND ARIZONA SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY...SLOWLY WEAKENING IN
THE PROCESS AS THE LOW TRACKS NORTHEASTWARD IN RESPONSE TO A LARGE
UPSTREAM TROUGH. BEST DYNAMICAL LIFT LOOKS TO BE WHERE MOISTURE IS
MORE LIMITED AND THE CONVERSE IS TRUE. THUS POPS REMAIN CONSERVATIVE
THOUGH SOME SUBTLE UPWARD ADJUSTMENTS WERE MADE SATURDAY. WITH DRIER
AIR MOVING IN SUNDAY...POPS TREND DOWNWARD.

TEMPS LOOK TO BE SLIGHTLY COOLER TODAY DUE TO INFLUENCE FROM THE
NEARBY TROUGH. ANTICIPATE ADDITIONAL COOLING OVER OUR WESTERN AREAS
SATURDAY FOR THE SAME REASON BUT SOME WARMING OVER OUR EASTERN AREAS
DUE TO LESS CLOUDINESS. LITTLE CHANGE SUNDAY.

MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...
WITH RIDGING BEGINNING TO BUILD IN MONDAY ALONG WITH SOME ADDITIONAL
DRYING...TEMPS WILL BE A BIT WARMER AND POPS WILL BE LIMITED TO LOW
END SLIGHT CHANCE OVER THE HIGHER MOUNTAINS OF SOUTH-CENTRAL
ARIZONA. LOOK FOR SLIGHT ADDITIONAL WARMING TUESDAY WITH LITTLE
CHANGE WEDNESDAY ALONG WITH  LITTLE CHANGE IN POPS. BY THURSDAY...A
PACIFIC TROUGH MOVES INLAND AND DRAWS SOME MOISTURE NORTHWARD.
SLIGHT CHANCE AREA WAS BROADENED BUT STILL CONFINED TO THE HIGHER
TERRAIN OF SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA.

&&

.AVIATION...
SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA INCLUDING KPHX...KIWA...AND KSDL...CURRENT
SCT-BKN 7-8K FT CIGS TO BECOME FEW-SCT BY THIS AFTERNOON AS SOMEWHAT
DRIER AIR FILTERS INTO THE REGION FROM THE WEST. SCT-BKN MID-LEVEL
CIGS TO RETURN AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT AS SOUTHERLY FLOW ALOFT PUSHES
MOISTURE BACK NORTHWARD INTO THE PHX AREA. WINDS TO MAINLY FOLLOW
THE USUAL DIURNAL TRENDS...WHILE REMAINING ON THE LIGHT
SIDE...MAINLY AOB 10KTS.

SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA AND SOUTHWEST ARIZONA INCLUDING KIPL AND KBLH...
CURRENT WESTERLY WINDS AT KIPL...AND SOUTHERLY WINDS AT KBLH...THAT
ARE NOW AROUND 10KTS...ARE EXPECTED TO DIMINISH TO AROUND...OR BELOW
5KTS BY MID-LATE MORNING. MAINLY CLEAR SKIES TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE
TAF PERIOD AT BOTH OF THE SE CA TERMINALS.

AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDED TAFS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...
RATHER DRY WESTERLY FLOW TO KEEP SKIES MAINLY CLEAR THROUGH THE
FORECAST PERIOD AT MOST LOCATIONS ACROSS THE REGION...WITH THE
EXCEPTION OF THE HIGHER TERRAIN NORTH AND EAST OF PHOENIX...WHERE
LINGERING MOISTURE MAY ALLOW ISOLATED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS TO
DEVELOP EACH AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING. MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITIES TO
FALL INTO THE 20 TO 30 PERCENT RANGE EACH AFTERNOON...WITH GOOD TO
EXCELLENT OVERNIGHT RECOVERIES. WINDS TO REMAIN MAINLY ON THE LIGHT
SIDE...MAINLY IN THE 5 TO 15 MPH RANGE...WITH THE USUAL DIURNAL
TRENDS TO PREVAIL AT MOST LOCATIONS.


&&

.PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

AZ...NONE.

CA...NONE.

&&

$$

VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/PHOENIX

DISCUSSION...DEWEY
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...AJ
AVIATION...PERCHA
FIRE WEATHER...PERCHA







000
FXUS65 KPSR 191541
AFDPSR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PHOENIX AZ
840 AM MST FRI SEP 19 2014


.SYNOPSIS...
LINGERING MOISTURE ACROSS THE REGION AND LOW PRESSURE APPROACHING
FROM THE WEST WILL KEEP AT LEAST SLIGHT CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS IN THE FORECAST TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY. DRIER AIR WILL
GRADUALLY FILTER INTO THE REGION SUNDAY FOR A DECLINE IN STORM
CHANCES. SOME ADDITIONAL DRYING MONDAY...WITH LITTLE CHANGE THROUGH
WEDNESDAY...WILL KEEP STORM CHANCES VERY SLIGHT AND LIMITED TO THE
HIGHER MOUNTAINS OF SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA. TEMPERATURES WILL BE
WARMER AS WELL. AN APPROACHING PACIFIC WEATHER SYSTEM LATE NEXT WEEK
WILL LEAD TO AN INCREASE IN STORM CHANCES OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF
SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
QUITE A BIT OF MOISTURE STILL PRESENT ACROSS THE LOWER DESERTS THIS
MORNING. DEWPOINTS FROM FAR SOUTHEAST ARIZONA TO NORTH-CENTRAL
ARIZONA IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOW 70S...AND EVEN ACROSS SOUTHERN
CALIFORNIA FROM THE COAST TO THE LOWER DESERTS WITH SIMILAR VALUES.
CLOUD COVER REMAINING THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS WITH BASES 8-10K
FT AS DEPICTED BY THE 12Z PSR SOUNDING...A VERY MOIST LAYER AND
COLUMN WITH OVER 1.7 INCHES OF PRECIPITABLE WATER AND WEAK WIND
PROFILE. NOTABLE BOUNDARY OF MOISTURE FROM SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA
STRETCHING NORTHEAST TOWARDS FOUR-CORNERS AREA...WITH AN APPROACHING
TROUGH MOVING ON TO THE WEST COAST THIS WEEKEND. FOR
TODAY...ISOLATED SHOWER CHANCES SHOULD REMAIN VERY SLIGHT AND MOSTLY
TERRAIN DRIVEN AS DEPICTED IN LOCAL HIGH-RES MODEL FORECASTS. NO
UPDATES NEEDED FOR THE FORECAST PACKAGE AT THIS TIME.


.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION.../ISSUED 410 AM MST/PDT FRIDAY 19 SEPT/...
TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY...
SATELLITE IMAGERY EARLY THIS MORNING SHOWS A FAIR AMOUNT OF CLOUD
COVER OVER ARIZONA...INCLUDING OUR FORECAST AREA. PHOENIX AREA
METARS HAVE THE BASES AT 8-10 KFT AGL. MOST OF THE CLOUD TOPS ARE
AROUND...OR WARMER THAN...0 DEG C. SOME OF THE CLOUDINESS IS COLDER
THAN THAT WHICH INDICATES A DEEPER CLOUD AND BETTER POTENTIAL TO
PRODUCE PRECIP. WATER VAPOR LOOP INDICATES THERE WERE A COUPLE OF
VORT MAXES THAT HAVE SHIFTED EASTWARD INTO NEW MEXICO. IT ALSO SHOWS
A TROUGH CENTERED ROUGHLY ALONG THE CALIFORNIA COAST WITH MULTIPLE
VORT MAXES MOVING THROUGH AND STRONGER SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT
APPROACHING THE FORECAST AREA. BLENDED TPW IMAGERY SHOWS A FAIRLY
SHARP MOISTURE GRADIENT OVER FAR WESTERN ARIZONA. LATEST MODELS HAVE
ALL BEEN DEPICTING QPF OVER EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA
THIS MORNING. HOWEVER...MOST OF THEM GENERATED QPF BETWEEN 0-6Z
WHICH DID NOT HAPPEN AT ALL. THEY SHOWED EVEN MORE BETWEEN 6-12Z
WHICH HAS NOT HAPPENED YET. IT MAY BE A REFLECTION OF A
JETLET...AHEAD OF A STRONGER JET CLOSER TO THE MAIN TROUGH
AXIS...FORECAST TO MOVE INTO ARIZONA AND WEAKEN LATER TODAY. OF
NOTE...MODELS ARE GENERALLY SHOWING MORE QPF IN THE 12-18Z TIME
FRAME THAN 18Z-00Z...LIKELY DUE TO DRIER AIR MOVING IN. LOCAL WRF
HAS BEEN THE MOST CONSERVATIVE IN TERMS OF AREAL COVERAGE AND THUS
IT APPEARS TO BE DOING BETTER THAN MANY OTHER MODELS. EVEN
STILL...IT GENERATES SOME LARGE QPF BULLSEYES OVER THE MAZATZALS AND
FOUR PEAKS WHICH LOOKS OVERDONE. HELD OFF ON EXPANDING THE SLIGHT
CHANCE AREA FOR THIS MORNING DUE TO DISCONNECT BETWEEN OBSERVED
CONDITIONS AND MODEL FORECAST. HOWEVER...HELD ON TO SLIGHT CHANCE
THIS AFTERNOON OVER OUR EASTERN AREAS AS SURFACE HEATING WILL BE
BETTER.

MODELS ARE IN AGREEMENT THAT A VORT MAX WITHIN THE PACIFIC TROUGH
WILL BECOME THE MAIN CIRCULATION CENTER AND BECOMES A CUTOFF LOW FOR
A SHORT TIME. MEANWHILE...AN ANTICYCLONE BECOMES CENTERED OVER
COLORADO. IN TURN...MOISTURE PUSHES WEST AND NORTHWARD...A REVERSAL
OF THE PREVIOUS DRY ADVECTION. A JET STREAK TRACKS ACROSS SOUTHEAST
CALIFORNIA AND ARIZONA SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY...SLOWLY WEAKENING IN
THE PROCESS AS THE LOW TRACKS NORTHEASTWARD IN RESPONSE TO A LARGE
UPSTREAM TROUGH. BEST DYNAMICAL LIFT LOOKS TO BE WHERE MOISTURE IS
MORE LIMITED AND THE CONVERSE IS TRUE. THUS POPS REMAIN CONSERVATIVE
THOUGH SOME SUBTLE UPWARD ADJUSTMENTS WERE MADE SATURDAY. WITH DRIER
AIR MOVING IN SUNDAY...POPS TREND DOWNWARD.

TEMPS LOOK TO BE SLIGHTLY COOLER TODAY DUE TO INFLUENCE FROM THE
NEARBY TROUGH. ANTICIPATE ADDITIONAL COOLING OVER OUR WESTERN AREAS
SATURDAY FOR THE SAME REASON BUT SOME WARMING OVER OUR EASTERN AREAS
DUE TO LESS CLOUDINESS. LITTLE CHANGE SUNDAY.

MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...
WITH RIDGING BEGINNING TO BUILD IN MONDAY ALONG WITH SOME ADDITIONAL
DRYING...TEMPS WILL BE A BIT WARMER AND POPS WILL BE LIMITED TO LOW
END SLIGHT CHANCE OVER THE HIGHER MOUNTAINS OF SOUTH-CENTRAL
ARIZONA. LOOK FOR SLIGHT ADDITIONAL WARMING TUESDAY WITH LITTLE
CHANGE WEDNESDAY ALONG WITH  LITTLE CHANGE IN POPS. BY THURSDAY...A
PACIFIC TROUGH MOVES INLAND AND DRAWS SOME MOISTURE NORTHWARD.
SLIGHT CHANCE AREA WAS BROADENED BUT STILL CONFINED TO THE HIGHER
TERRAIN OF SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA.

&&

.AVIATION...
SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA INCLUDING KPHX...KIWA...AND KSDL...CURRENT
SCT-BKN 7-8K FT CIGS TO BECOME FEW-SCT BY THIS AFTERNOON AS SOMEWHAT
DRIER AIR FILTERS INTO THE REGION FROM THE WEST. SCT-BKN MID-LEVEL
CIGS TO RETURN AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT AS SOUTHERLY FLOW ALOFT PUSHES
MOISTURE BACK NORTHWARD INTO THE PHX AREA. WINDS TO MAINLY FOLLOW
THE USUAL DIURNAL TRENDS...WHILE REMAINING ON THE LIGHT
SIDE...MAINLY AOB 10KTS.

SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA AND SOUTHWEST ARIZONA INCLUDING KIPL AND KBLH...
CURRENT WESTERLY WINDS AT KIPL...AND SOUTHERLY WINDS AT KBLH...THAT
ARE NOW AROUND 10KTS...ARE EXPECTED TO DIMINISH TO AROUND...OR BELOW
5KTS BY MID-LATE MORNING. MAINLY CLEAR SKIES TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE
TAF PERIOD AT BOTH OF THE SE CA TERMINALS.

AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDED TAFS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...
RATHER DRY WESTERLY FLOW TO KEEP SKIES MAINLY CLEAR THROUGH THE
FORECAST PERIOD AT MOST LOCATIONS ACROSS THE REGION...WITH THE
EXCEPTION OF THE HIGHER TERRAIN NORTH AND EAST OF PHOENIX...WHERE
LINGERING MOISTURE MAY ALLOW ISOLATED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS TO
DEVELOP EACH AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING. MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITIES TO
FALL INTO THE 20 TO 30 PERCENT RANGE EACH AFTERNOON...WITH GOOD TO
EXCELLENT OVERNIGHT RECOVERIES. WINDS TO REMAIN MAINLY ON THE LIGHT
SIDE...MAINLY IN THE 5 TO 15 MPH RANGE...WITH THE USUAL DIURNAL
TRENDS TO PREVAIL AT MOST LOCATIONS.


&&

.PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

AZ...NONE.

CA...NONE.

&&

$$

VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/PHOENIX

DISCUSSION...DEWEY
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...AJ
AVIATION...PERCHA
FIRE WEATHER...PERCHA






000
FXUS65 KPSR 191111
AFDPSR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PHOENIX AZ
410 AM MST FRI SEP 19 2014


.SYNOPSIS...
LINGERING MOISTURE ACROSS THE REGION AND LOW PRESSURE APPROACHING
FROM THE WEST WILL KEEP AT LEAST SLIGHT CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS IN THE FORECAST TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY. DRIER AIR WILL
GRADUALLY FILTER INTO THE REGION SUNDAY FOR A DECLINE IN STORM
CHANCES. SOME ADDITIONAL DRYING MONDAY...WITH LITTLE CHANGE THROUGH
WEDNESDAY...WILL KEEP STORM CHANCES VERY SLIGHT AND LIMITED TO THE
HIGHER MOUNTAINS OF SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA. TEMPERATURES WILL BE
WARMER AS WELL. AN APPROACHING PACIFIC WEATHER SYSTEM LATE NEXT WEEK
WILL LEAD TO AN INCREASE IN STORM CHANCES OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF
SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY...
SATELLITE IMAGERY EARLY THIS MORNING SHOWS A FAIR AMOUNT OF CLOUD
COVER OVER ARIZONA...INCLUDING OUR FORECAST AREA. PHOENIX AREA
METARS HAVE THE BASES AT 8-10 KFT AGL. MOST OF THE CLOUD TOPS ARE
AROUND...OR WARMER THAN...0 DEG C. SOME OF THE CLOUDINESS IS COLDER
THAN THAT WHICH INDICATES A DEEPER CLOUD AND BETTER POTENTIAL TO
PRODUCE PRECIP. WATER VAPOR LOOP INDICATES THERE WERE A COUPLE OF
VORT MAXES THAT HAVE SHIFTED EASTWARD INTO NEW MEXICO. IT ALSO SHOWS
A TROUGH CENTERED ROUGHLY ALONG THE CALIFORNIA COAST WITH MULTIPLE
VORT MAXES MOVING THROUGH AND STRONGER SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT
APPROACHING THE FORECAST AREA. BLENDED TPW IMAGERY SHOWS A FAIRLY
SHARP MOISTURE GRADIENT OVER FAR WESTERN ARIZONA. LATEST MODELS HAVE
ALL BEEN DEPICTING QPF OVER EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA
THIS MORNING. HOWEVER...MOST OF THEM GENERATED QPF BETWEEN 0-6Z
WHICH DIDNT HAPPEN AT ALL. THEY SHOWED EVEN MORE BETWEEN 6-12Z WHICH
HAS NOT HAPPENED YET. IT MAY BE A REFLECTION OF A JETLET...AHEAD OF
A STRONGER JET CLOSER TO THE MAIN TROUGH AXIS...FORECAST TO MOVE
INTO ARIZONA AND WEAKEN LATER TODAY. OF NOTE...MODELS ARE GENERALLY
SHOWING MORE QPF IN THE 12-18Z TIME FRAME THAN 18Z-00Z...LIKELY DUE
TO DRIER AIR MOVING IN. LOCAL WRF HAS BEEN THE MOST CONSERVATIVE IN
TERMS OF AREAL COVERAGE AND THUS IT APPEARS TO BE DOING BETTER THAN
MANY OTHER MODELS. EVEN STILL...IT GENERATES SOME LARGE QPF
BULLSEYES OVER THE MAZATZALS AND FOUR PEAKS WHICH LOOKS OVERDONE.
HELD OFF ON EXPANDING THE SLIGHT CHANCE AREA FOR THIS MORNING DUE TO
DISCONNECT BETWEEN OBSERVED CONDITIONS AND MODEL FORECAST.
HOWEVER...HELD ON TO SLIGHT CHANCE THIS AFTERNOON OVER OUR EASTERN
AREAS AS SURFACE HEATING WILL BE BETTER.

MODELS ARE IN AGREEMENT THAT A VORT MAX WITHIN THE PACIFIC TROUGH
WILL BECOME THE MAIN CIRCULATION CENTER AND BECOMES A CUTOFF LOW FOR
A SHORT TIME. MEANWHILE...AN ANTICYCLONE BECOMES CENTERED OVER
COLORADO. IN TURN...MOISTURE PUSHES WEST AND NORTHWARD...A REVERSAL
OF THE PREVIOUS DRY ADVECTION. A JET STREAK TRACKS ACROSS SOUTHEAST
CALIFORNIA AND ARIZONA SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY...SLOWLY WEAKENING IN
THE PROCESS AS THE LOW TRACKS NORTHEASTWARD IN RESPONSE TO A LARGE
UPSTREAM TROUGH. BEST DYNAMICAL LIFT LOOKS TO BE WHERE MOISTURE IS
MORE LIMITED AND THE CONVERSE IS TRUE. THUS POPS REMAIN CONSERVATIVE
THOUGH SOME SUBTLE UPWARD ADJUSTMENTS WERE MADE SATURDAY. WITH DRIER
AIR MOVING IN SUNDAY...POPS TREND DOWNWARD.

TEMPS LOOK TO BE SLIGHTLY COOLER TODAY DUE TO INFLUENCE FROM THE
NEARBY TROUGH. ANTICIPATE ADDITIONAL COOLING OVER OUR WESTERN AREAS
SATURDAY FOR THE SAME REASON BUT SOME WARMING OVER OUR EASTERN AREAS
DUE TO LESS CLOUDINESS. LITTLE CHANGE SUNDAY.

MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...
WITH RIDGING BEGINNING TO BUILD IN MONDAY ALONG WITH SOME ADDITIONAL
DRYING...TEMPS WILL BE A BIT WARMER AND POPS WILL BE LIMITED TO LOW
END SLIGHT CHANCE OVER THE HIGHER MOUNTAINS OF SOUTH-CENTRAL
ARIZONA. LOOK FOR SLIGHT ADDITIONAL WARMING TUESDAY WITH LITTLE
CHANGE WEDNESDAY ALONG WITH  LITTLE CHANGE IN POPS. BY THURSDAY...A
PACIFIC TROUGH MOVES INLAND AND DRAWS SOME MOISTURE NORTHWARD.
SLIGHT CHANCE AREA WAS BROADENED BUT STILL CONFINED TO THE HIGHER
TERRAIN OF SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA.

&&

.AVIATION...
SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA INCLUDING KPHX...KIWA...AND KSDL...CURRENT
SCT-BKN 7-8K FT CIGS TO BECOME FEW-SCT BY THIS AFTERNOON AS SOMEWHAT
DRIER AIR FILTERS INTO THE REGION FROM THE WEST. SCT-BKN MID-LEVEL
CIGS TO RETURN AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT AS SOUTHERLY FLOW ALOFT PUSHES
MOISTURE BACK NORTHWARD INTO THE PHX AREA. WINDS TO MAINLY FOLLOW
THE USUAL DIURNAL TRENDS...WHILE REMAINING ON THE LIGHT
SIDE...MAINLY AOB 10KTS.

SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA AND SOUTHWEST ARIZONA INCLUDING KIPL AND KBLH...
CURRENT WESTERLY WINDS AT KIPL...AND SOUTHERLY WINDS AT KBLH...THAT
ARE NOW AROUND 10KTS...ARE EXPECTED TO DIMINISH TO AROUND...OR BELOW
5KTS BY MID-LATE MORNING. MAINLY CLEAR SKIES TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE
TAF PERIOD AT BOTH OF THE SE CA TERMINALS.

AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDED TAFS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...
RATHER DRY WESTERLY FLOW TO KEEP SKIES MAINLY CLEAR THROUGH THE
FORECAST PERIOD AT MOST LOCATIONS ACROSS THE REGION...WITH THE
EXCEPTION OF THE HIGHER TERRAIN NORTH AND EAST OF PHOENIX...WHERE
LINGERING MOISTURE MAY ALLOW ISOLATED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS TO
DEVELOP EACH AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING. MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITIES TO
FALL INTO THE 20 TO 30 PERCENT RANGE EACH AFTERNOON...WITH GOOD TO
EXCELLENT OVERNIGHT RECOVERIES. WINDS TO REMAIN MAINLY ON THE LIGHT
SIDE...MAINLY IN THE 5 TO 15 MPH RANGE...WITH THE USUAL DIURNAL
TRENDS TO PREVAIL AT MOST LOCATIONS.


&&

.PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

AZ...NONE.

CA...NONE.

&&

$$

VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/PHOENIX

DISCUSSION...AJ
AVIATION...PERCHA
FIRE WEATHER...PERCHA








000
FXUS65 KPSR 191111
AFDPSR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PHOENIX AZ
410 AM MST FRI SEP 19 2014


.SYNOPSIS...
LINGERING MOISTURE ACROSS THE REGION AND LOW PRESSURE APPROACHING
FROM THE WEST WILL KEEP AT LEAST SLIGHT CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS IN THE FORECAST TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY. DRIER AIR WILL
GRADUALLY FILTER INTO THE REGION SUNDAY FOR A DECLINE IN STORM
CHANCES. SOME ADDITIONAL DRYING MONDAY...WITH LITTLE CHANGE THROUGH
WEDNESDAY...WILL KEEP STORM CHANCES VERY SLIGHT AND LIMITED TO THE
HIGHER MOUNTAINS OF SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA. TEMPERATURES WILL BE
WARMER AS WELL. AN APPROACHING PACIFIC WEATHER SYSTEM LATE NEXT WEEK
WILL LEAD TO AN INCREASE IN STORM CHANCES OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF
SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY...
SATELLITE IMAGERY EARLY THIS MORNING SHOWS A FAIR AMOUNT OF CLOUD
COVER OVER ARIZONA...INCLUDING OUR FORECAST AREA. PHOENIX AREA
METARS HAVE THE BASES AT 8-10 KFT AGL. MOST OF THE CLOUD TOPS ARE
AROUND...OR WARMER THAN...0 DEG C. SOME OF THE CLOUDINESS IS COLDER
THAN THAT WHICH INDICATES A DEEPER CLOUD AND BETTER POTENTIAL TO
PRODUCE PRECIP. WATER VAPOR LOOP INDICATES THERE WERE A COUPLE OF
VORT MAXES THAT HAVE SHIFTED EASTWARD INTO NEW MEXICO. IT ALSO SHOWS
A TROUGH CENTERED ROUGHLY ALONG THE CALIFORNIA COAST WITH MULTIPLE
VORT MAXES MOVING THROUGH AND STRONGER SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT
APPROACHING THE FORECAST AREA. BLENDED TPW IMAGERY SHOWS A FAIRLY
SHARP MOISTURE GRADIENT OVER FAR WESTERN ARIZONA. LATEST MODELS HAVE
ALL BEEN DEPICTING QPF OVER EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA
THIS MORNING. HOWEVER...MOST OF THEM GENERATED QPF BETWEEN 0-6Z
WHICH DIDNT HAPPEN AT ALL. THEY SHOWED EVEN MORE BETWEEN 6-12Z WHICH
HAS NOT HAPPENED YET. IT MAY BE A REFLECTION OF A JETLET...AHEAD OF
A STRONGER JET CLOSER TO THE MAIN TROUGH AXIS...FORECAST TO MOVE
INTO ARIZONA AND WEAKEN LATER TODAY. OF NOTE...MODELS ARE GENERALLY
SHOWING MORE QPF IN THE 12-18Z TIME FRAME THAN 18Z-00Z...LIKELY DUE
TO DRIER AIR MOVING IN. LOCAL WRF HAS BEEN THE MOST CONSERVATIVE IN
TERMS OF AREAL COVERAGE AND THUS IT APPEARS TO BE DOING BETTER THAN
MANY OTHER MODELS. EVEN STILL...IT GENERATES SOME LARGE QPF
BULLSEYES OVER THE MAZATZALS AND FOUR PEAKS WHICH LOOKS OVERDONE.
HELD OFF ON EXPANDING THE SLIGHT CHANCE AREA FOR THIS MORNING DUE TO
DISCONNECT BETWEEN OBSERVED CONDITIONS AND MODEL FORECAST.
HOWEVER...HELD ON TO SLIGHT CHANCE THIS AFTERNOON OVER OUR EASTERN
AREAS AS SURFACE HEATING WILL BE BETTER.

MODELS ARE IN AGREEMENT THAT A VORT MAX WITHIN THE PACIFIC TROUGH
WILL BECOME THE MAIN CIRCULATION CENTER AND BECOMES A CUTOFF LOW FOR
A SHORT TIME. MEANWHILE...AN ANTICYCLONE BECOMES CENTERED OVER
COLORADO. IN TURN...MOISTURE PUSHES WEST AND NORTHWARD...A REVERSAL
OF THE PREVIOUS DRY ADVECTION. A JET STREAK TRACKS ACROSS SOUTHEAST
CALIFORNIA AND ARIZONA SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY...SLOWLY WEAKENING IN
THE PROCESS AS THE LOW TRACKS NORTHEASTWARD IN RESPONSE TO A LARGE
UPSTREAM TROUGH. BEST DYNAMICAL LIFT LOOKS TO BE WHERE MOISTURE IS
MORE LIMITED AND THE CONVERSE IS TRUE. THUS POPS REMAIN CONSERVATIVE
THOUGH SOME SUBTLE UPWARD ADJUSTMENTS WERE MADE SATURDAY. WITH DRIER
AIR MOVING IN SUNDAY...POPS TREND DOWNWARD.

TEMPS LOOK TO BE SLIGHTLY COOLER TODAY DUE TO INFLUENCE FROM THE
NEARBY TROUGH. ANTICIPATE ADDITIONAL COOLING OVER OUR WESTERN AREAS
SATURDAY FOR THE SAME REASON BUT SOME WARMING OVER OUR EASTERN AREAS
DUE TO LESS CLOUDINESS. LITTLE CHANGE SUNDAY.

MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...
WITH RIDGING BEGINNING TO BUILD IN MONDAY ALONG WITH SOME ADDITIONAL
DRYING...TEMPS WILL BE A BIT WARMER AND POPS WILL BE LIMITED TO LOW
END SLIGHT CHANCE OVER THE HIGHER MOUNTAINS OF SOUTH-CENTRAL
ARIZONA. LOOK FOR SLIGHT ADDITIONAL WARMING TUESDAY WITH LITTLE
CHANGE WEDNESDAY ALONG WITH  LITTLE CHANGE IN POPS. BY THURSDAY...A
PACIFIC TROUGH MOVES INLAND AND DRAWS SOME MOISTURE NORTHWARD.
SLIGHT CHANCE AREA WAS BROADENED BUT STILL CONFINED TO THE HIGHER
TERRAIN OF SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA.

&&

.AVIATION...
SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA INCLUDING KPHX...KIWA...AND KSDL...CURRENT
SCT-BKN 7-8K FT CIGS TO BECOME FEW-SCT BY THIS AFTERNOON AS SOMEWHAT
DRIER AIR FILTERS INTO THE REGION FROM THE WEST. SCT-BKN MID-LEVEL
CIGS TO RETURN AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT AS SOUTHERLY FLOW ALOFT PUSHES
MOISTURE BACK NORTHWARD INTO THE PHX AREA. WINDS TO MAINLY FOLLOW
THE USUAL DIURNAL TRENDS...WHILE REMAINING ON THE LIGHT
SIDE...MAINLY AOB 10KTS.

SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA AND SOUTHWEST ARIZONA INCLUDING KIPL AND KBLH...
CURRENT WESTERLY WINDS AT KIPL...AND SOUTHERLY WINDS AT KBLH...THAT
ARE NOW AROUND 10KTS...ARE EXPECTED TO DIMINISH TO AROUND...OR BELOW
5KTS BY MID-LATE MORNING. MAINLY CLEAR SKIES TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE
TAF PERIOD AT BOTH OF THE SE CA TERMINALS.

AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDED TAFS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...
RATHER DRY WESTERLY FLOW TO KEEP SKIES MAINLY CLEAR THROUGH THE
FORECAST PERIOD AT MOST LOCATIONS ACROSS THE REGION...WITH THE
EXCEPTION OF THE HIGHER TERRAIN NORTH AND EAST OF PHOENIX...WHERE
LINGERING MOISTURE MAY ALLOW ISOLATED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS TO
DEVELOP EACH AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING. MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITIES TO
FALL INTO THE 20 TO 30 PERCENT RANGE EACH AFTERNOON...WITH GOOD TO
EXCELLENT OVERNIGHT RECOVERIES. WINDS TO REMAIN MAINLY ON THE LIGHT
SIDE...MAINLY IN THE 5 TO 15 MPH RANGE...WITH THE USUAL DIURNAL
TRENDS TO PREVAIL AT MOST LOCATIONS.


&&

.PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

AZ...NONE.

CA...NONE.

&&

$$

VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/PHOENIX

DISCUSSION...AJ
AVIATION...PERCHA
FIRE WEATHER...PERCHA









000
FXUS65 KTWC 191038
AFDTWC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ
335 AM MST FRI SEP 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...LINGERING MOISTURE WILL MAINTAIN A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS INTO THIS WEEKEND. HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WILL THEN
PROVIDE REDUCED RAINFALL CHANCES NEXT WEEK. EXPECT GRADUALLY WARMER
DAYTIME TEMPERATURES INTO THIS WEEKEND.

&&

.DISCUSSION...INTERESTING MORNING SO FAR WITH ISOLATED LOW TOPPED
CONVECTION...MAINLY SW OF TUCSON AND OVER THE RINCON MOUNTAINS.
RADAR BASED RAINFALL AMOUNTS ARE IN THE 0.50"-1" RANGE SO FAR. ONE
RAIN GAUGES IN THE RINCONS RECORDED 1.10" IN AN HOUR HOUR. 00Z/06Z
NAM MODEL HAS BEEN SHOWING CONVECTIVE BULLS-EYES WHILE GFS/ECMWF ARE
NOT. HAVE LEANED THE EARLY PART OF THE FORECAST TOWARDS THE NAM FOR
THE MOUNTAINS WHICH MEANS INCREASING POPS THERE. FOR THIS
AFTERNOON...SHOULD SEE A TYPICAL MONSOON FORECAST WITH PRECIPITABLE
WATER VALUES REMAINING HIGH. THERE WILL BE ISOLATED HEAVY RAINERS
THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING.

THE WEAK UPPER LOW OFF THE CENTRAL CALIFORNIA COAST WILL DROP SOUTH
TODAY BEFORE BOTTOMING OUT WEST OF LA THEN LIFT NE INTO NEVADA BY
SUNDAY MORNING. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED MAINLY AFTERNOON/EVENING
STORMS WITH BEST CHANCES BEING FROM TUCSON EAST.

DRIER AIR MOVES OVER THE AREA EARLY NEXT WEEK UNDER WLY FLOW ALOFT
WITH UPPER HIGH CENTERED TO OUR SOUTH. HIGHS WILL BE AT OR NEAR
NORMALS NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...VALID THRU 20/12Z.
EXPECT ISOLATED TO SCATTERED -SHRA/-TSRA ACROSS SE AZ THIS AFTERNOON
AND THIS EVENING. MVFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE MAINLY ACROSS THE
HIGHER TERRAIN THROUGH THIS PERIOD. THERE MAY ALSO BE A FEW HOURS OF
FOG EARLY THIS MORNING AT THE KOLS/KDUG TERMINALS. OTHERWISE...CLOUD
DECKS INTO FRI EVENING ESPECIALLY KTUS VICINITY EWD WILL BE AT 5-10K
FT AGL...AND SURFACE WINDS WILL BE MAINLY LESS THAN 10 KTS. AVIATION
DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR TAF AMENDMENTS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...THERE IS ENOUGH MOISTURE FOR A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THIS WEEKEND. HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WILL THEN
PROVIDE DRIER CONDITIONS WITH LESSER CHANCES FOR RAINFALL NEXT WEEK.

&&

.CLIMATE...THE TUCSON AIRPORT HAS RECORDED 3 STRAIGHT DAYS WITH
HIGHS LESS THAN 85 DEGREES. THIS IS THE LONGEST SEPTEMBER STRETCH
SINCE 1985.

&&

.TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...YOUTUBE...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/TUCSON






000
FXUS65 KTWC 191038
AFDTWC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ
335 AM MST FRI SEP 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...LINGERING MOISTURE WILL MAINTAIN A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS INTO THIS WEEKEND. HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WILL THEN
PROVIDE REDUCED RAINFALL CHANCES NEXT WEEK. EXPECT GRADUALLY WARMER
DAYTIME TEMPERATURES INTO THIS WEEKEND.

&&

.DISCUSSION...INTERESTING MORNING SO FAR WITH ISOLATED LOW TOPPED
CONVECTION...MAINLY SW OF TUCSON AND OVER THE RINCON MOUNTAINS.
RADAR BASED RAINFALL AMOUNTS ARE IN THE 0.50"-1" RANGE SO FAR. ONE
RAIN GAUGES IN THE RINCONS RECORDED 1.10" IN AN HOUR HOUR. 00Z/06Z
NAM MODEL HAS BEEN SHOWING CONVECTIVE BULLS-EYES WHILE GFS/ECMWF ARE
NOT. HAVE LEANED THE EARLY PART OF THE FORECAST TOWARDS THE NAM FOR
THE MOUNTAINS WHICH MEANS INCREASING POPS THERE. FOR THIS
AFTERNOON...SHOULD SEE A TYPICAL MONSOON FORECAST WITH PRECIPITABLE
WATER VALUES REMAINING HIGH. THERE WILL BE ISOLATED HEAVY RAINERS
THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING.

THE WEAK UPPER LOW OFF THE CENTRAL CALIFORNIA COAST WILL DROP SOUTH
TODAY BEFORE BOTTOMING OUT WEST OF LA THEN LIFT NE INTO NEVADA BY
SUNDAY MORNING. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED MAINLY AFTERNOON/EVENING
STORMS WITH BEST CHANCES BEING FROM TUCSON EAST.

DRIER AIR MOVES OVER THE AREA EARLY NEXT WEEK UNDER WLY FLOW ALOFT
WITH UPPER HIGH CENTERED TO OUR SOUTH. HIGHS WILL BE AT OR NEAR
NORMALS NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...VALID THRU 20/12Z.
EXPECT ISOLATED TO SCATTERED -SHRA/-TSRA ACROSS SE AZ THIS AFTERNOON
AND THIS EVENING. MVFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE MAINLY ACROSS THE
HIGHER TERRAIN THROUGH THIS PERIOD. THERE MAY ALSO BE A FEW HOURS OF
FOG EARLY THIS MORNING AT THE KOLS/KDUG TERMINALS. OTHERWISE...CLOUD
DECKS INTO FRI EVENING ESPECIALLY KTUS VICINITY EWD WILL BE AT 5-10K
FT AGL...AND SURFACE WINDS WILL BE MAINLY LESS THAN 10 KTS. AVIATION
DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR TAF AMENDMENTS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...THERE IS ENOUGH MOISTURE FOR A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THIS WEEKEND. HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WILL THEN
PROVIDE DRIER CONDITIONS WITH LESSER CHANCES FOR RAINFALL NEXT WEEK.

&&

.CLIMATE...THE TUCSON AIRPORT HAS RECORDED 3 STRAIGHT DAYS WITH
HIGHS LESS THAN 85 DEGREES. THIS IS THE LONGEST SEPTEMBER STRETCH
SINCE 1985.

&&

.TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...YOUTUBE...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/TUCSON






000
FXUS65 KTWC 191038
AFDTWC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ
335 AM MST FRI SEP 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...LINGERING MOISTURE WILL MAINTAIN A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS INTO THIS WEEKEND. HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WILL THEN
PROVIDE REDUCED RAINFALL CHANCES NEXT WEEK. EXPECT GRADUALLY WARMER
DAYTIME TEMPERATURES INTO THIS WEEKEND.

&&

.DISCUSSION...INTERESTING MORNING SO FAR WITH ISOLATED LOW TOPPED
CONVECTION...MAINLY SW OF TUCSON AND OVER THE RINCON MOUNTAINS.
RADAR BASED RAINFALL AMOUNTS ARE IN THE 0.50"-1" RANGE SO FAR. ONE
RAIN GAUGES IN THE RINCONS RECORDED 1.10" IN AN HOUR HOUR. 00Z/06Z
NAM MODEL HAS BEEN SHOWING CONVECTIVE BULLS-EYES WHILE GFS/ECMWF ARE
NOT. HAVE LEANED THE EARLY PART OF THE FORECAST TOWARDS THE NAM FOR
THE MOUNTAINS WHICH MEANS INCREASING POPS THERE. FOR THIS
AFTERNOON...SHOULD SEE A TYPICAL MONSOON FORECAST WITH PRECIPITABLE
WATER VALUES REMAINING HIGH. THERE WILL BE ISOLATED HEAVY RAINERS
THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING.

THE WEAK UPPER LOW OFF THE CENTRAL CALIFORNIA COAST WILL DROP SOUTH
TODAY BEFORE BOTTOMING OUT WEST OF LA THEN LIFT NE INTO NEVADA BY
SUNDAY MORNING. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED MAINLY AFTERNOON/EVENING
STORMS WITH BEST CHANCES BEING FROM TUCSON EAST.

DRIER AIR MOVES OVER THE AREA EARLY NEXT WEEK UNDER WLY FLOW ALOFT
WITH UPPER HIGH CENTERED TO OUR SOUTH. HIGHS WILL BE AT OR NEAR
NORMALS NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...VALID THRU 20/12Z.
EXPECT ISOLATED TO SCATTERED -SHRA/-TSRA ACROSS SE AZ THIS AFTERNOON
AND THIS EVENING. MVFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE MAINLY ACROSS THE
HIGHER TERRAIN THROUGH THIS PERIOD. THERE MAY ALSO BE A FEW HOURS OF
FOG EARLY THIS MORNING AT THE KOLS/KDUG TERMINALS. OTHERWISE...CLOUD
DECKS INTO FRI EVENING ESPECIALLY KTUS VICINITY EWD WILL BE AT 5-10K
FT AGL...AND SURFACE WINDS WILL BE MAINLY LESS THAN 10 KTS. AVIATION
DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR TAF AMENDMENTS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...THERE IS ENOUGH MOISTURE FOR A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THIS WEEKEND. HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WILL THEN
PROVIDE DRIER CONDITIONS WITH LESSER CHANCES FOR RAINFALL NEXT WEEK.

&&

.CLIMATE...THE TUCSON AIRPORT HAS RECORDED 3 STRAIGHT DAYS WITH
HIGHS LESS THAN 85 DEGREES. THIS IS THE LONGEST SEPTEMBER STRETCH
SINCE 1985.

&&

.TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...YOUTUBE...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/TUCSON






000
FXUS65 KTWC 191038
AFDTWC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ
335 AM MST FRI SEP 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...LINGERING MOISTURE WILL MAINTAIN A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS INTO THIS WEEKEND. HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WILL THEN
PROVIDE REDUCED RAINFALL CHANCES NEXT WEEK. EXPECT GRADUALLY WARMER
DAYTIME TEMPERATURES INTO THIS WEEKEND.

&&

.DISCUSSION...INTERESTING MORNING SO FAR WITH ISOLATED LOW TOPPED
CONVECTION...MAINLY SW OF TUCSON AND OVER THE RINCON MOUNTAINS.
RADAR BASED RAINFALL AMOUNTS ARE IN THE 0.50"-1" RANGE SO FAR. ONE
RAIN GAUGES IN THE RINCONS RECORDED 1.10" IN AN HOUR HOUR. 00Z/06Z
NAM MODEL HAS BEEN SHOWING CONVECTIVE BULLS-EYES WHILE GFS/ECMWF ARE
NOT. HAVE LEANED THE EARLY PART OF THE FORECAST TOWARDS THE NAM FOR
THE MOUNTAINS WHICH MEANS INCREASING POPS THERE. FOR THIS
AFTERNOON...SHOULD SEE A TYPICAL MONSOON FORECAST WITH PRECIPITABLE
WATER VALUES REMAINING HIGH. THERE WILL BE ISOLATED HEAVY RAINERS
THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING.

THE WEAK UPPER LOW OFF THE CENTRAL CALIFORNIA COAST WILL DROP SOUTH
TODAY BEFORE BOTTOMING OUT WEST OF LA THEN LIFT NE INTO NEVADA BY
SUNDAY MORNING. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED MAINLY AFTERNOON/EVENING
STORMS WITH BEST CHANCES BEING FROM TUCSON EAST.

DRIER AIR MOVES OVER THE AREA EARLY NEXT WEEK UNDER WLY FLOW ALOFT
WITH UPPER HIGH CENTERED TO OUR SOUTH. HIGHS WILL BE AT OR NEAR
NORMALS NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...VALID THRU 20/12Z.
EXPECT ISOLATED TO SCATTERED -SHRA/-TSRA ACROSS SE AZ THIS AFTERNOON
AND THIS EVENING. MVFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE MAINLY ACROSS THE
HIGHER TERRAIN THROUGH THIS PERIOD. THERE MAY ALSO BE A FEW HOURS OF
FOG EARLY THIS MORNING AT THE KOLS/KDUG TERMINALS. OTHERWISE...CLOUD
DECKS INTO FRI EVENING ESPECIALLY KTUS VICINITY EWD WILL BE AT 5-10K
FT AGL...AND SURFACE WINDS WILL BE MAINLY LESS THAN 10 KTS. AVIATION
DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR TAF AMENDMENTS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...THERE IS ENOUGH MOISTURE FOR A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THIS WEEKEND. HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WILL THEN
PROVIDE DRIER CONDITIONS WITH LESSER CHANCES FOR RAINFALL NEXT WEEK.

&&

.CLIMATE...THE TUCSON AIRPORT HAS RECORDED 3 STRAIGHT DAYS WITH
HIGHS LESS THAN 85 DEGREES. THIS IS THE LONGEST SEPTEMBER STRETCH
SINCE 1985.

&&

.TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...YOUTUBE...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/TUCSON






000
FXUS65 KFGZ 191015
AFDFGZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ
315 AM MST FRI SEP 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ENOUGH MOISTURE WILL REMAIN OVER NORTHERN ARIZONA TODAY FOR
ANOTHER DAY OF ISOLATED SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY...FAVORING THE MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN. AN AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA AND INTO
NEVADA OVER THE WEEKEND. THIS WILL INCREASE CHANCES FOR SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER NORTHERN ARIZONA. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO
THE REGION EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH DRIER AND WARMER WEATHER FORECAST.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
A FEW VERY ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE BEING OBSERVED EARLY THIS MORNING
SOUTH OF I-40 WITH GENERALLY SCATTERED TO BROKEN CLOUD COVER
ELSEWHERE. ISOLATED SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL PERSIST BUT REMAIN MOSTLY
SOUTH OF I-40 THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS. WEAK RIDGING WILL MOVE
OVER NORTHERN ARIZONA TODAY BETWEEN THE DEPARTED REMNANTS OF ODILE
AND AN UPPER LOW CLOSING OFF OVER THE CALIFORNIA COAST. AS WAS THE
CASE YESTERDAY...CONVECTION THIS AFTERNOON WILL BE FIGHTING
AGAINST DRIER AND MORE STABLE AIR IN THE MID LEVELS...ESPECIALLY
ACROSS WESTERN ARIZONA. SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY SHOULD
MOSTLY BE ISOLATED TODAY WITH THE BEST COVERAGE NEAR THE WHITE
MOUNTAINS AND ALONG THE MOGOLLON RIM. TEMPERATURES WILL BE CLOSE
TO OR A BIT WARMER THAN AVERAGE.

DEEP SOUTHERLY FLOW DEVELOPS TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY AHEAD OF THE
APPROACHING LOW WHICH DRAWS INCREASED MOISTURE NORTHWARD. AN
UPTICK IN SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IS ANTICIPATED OVER THE
WEEKEND AS THE UPPER LOW TRACKS THROUGH NEVADA AND INTERACTS WITH
THE ENHANCED MOISTURE ACROSS ARIZONA. ACTIVITY ON SATURDAY WILL
FAVOR AREAS FROM GRAND CANYON TO SHOW LOW WEST...SHIFTING TO
NORTHERN AND EASTERN ARIZONA ON SUNDAY.

SUBTROPICAL HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE SOUTHWEST FOR THE EARLY
PART OF NEXT WEEK LEADING TO A DRIER WESTERLY FLOW AND MUCH LESS
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY. HAVE TRENDED PRECIPITATION CHANCES
DOWNWARD...AND THEY MAY NEED TO BE REMOVED ENTIRELY IF TRENDS
CONTINUE. A DEEPER AND COLDER TROUGH IS FORECAST TO MOVE INTO THE
WEST LATE NEXT WEEK...LEADING TO BREEZY AND COOLER WEATHER WITH A
RETURN FOR RAIN CHANCES.

&&

.AVIATION...
FOR THE 12Z PACKAGE...EXPECT ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TODAY WITH ISOLATED IFR/MVFR CONDITIONS
UNDER THE STRONGER STORMS. THE HIGHEST CHANCES FOR SHOWERS WILL
OCCUR ACROSS THE YAVAPAI AND GILA COUNTY MOUNTAINS...MOGOLLON
RIM...AND WHITE MOUNTAINS REGIONS. THE STORM ACTIVITY IS FORECAST TO
DIMINISH AFTER 03Z SATURDAY. AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR
AMENDMENTS.

&&

.FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC.........MCS
AVIATION.......BOHLIN

FOR NORTHERN ARIZONA WEATHER INFORMATION VISIT
WEATHER.GOV/FLAGSTAFF





000
FXUS65 KFGZ 191015
AFDFGZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ
315 AM MST FRI SEP 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ENOUGH MOISTURE WILL REMAIN OVER NORTHERN ARIZONA TODAY FOR
ANOTHER DAY OF ISOLATED SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY...FAVORING THE MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN. AN AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA AND INTO
NEVADA OVER THE WEEKEND. THIS WILL INCREASE CHANCES FOR SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER NORTHERN ARIZONA. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO
THE REGION EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH DRIER AND WARMER WEATHER FORECAST.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
A FEW VERY ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE BEING OBSERVED EARLY THIS MORNING
SOUTH OF I-40 WITH GENERALLY SCATTERED TO BROKEN CLOUD COVER
ELSEWHERE. ISOLATED SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL PERSIST BUT REMAIN MOSTLY
SOUTH OF I-40 THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS. WEAK RIDGING WILL MOVE
OVER NORTHERN ARIZONA TODAY BETWEEN THE DEPARTED REMNANTS OF ODILE
AND AN UPPER LOW CLOSING OFF OVER THE CALIFORNIA COAST. AS WAS THE
CASE YESTERDAY...CONVECTION THIS AFTERNOON WILL BE FIGHTING
AGAINST DRIER AND MORE STABLE AIR IN THE MID LEVELS...ESPECIALLY
ACROSS WESTERN ARIZONA. SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY SHOULD
MOSTLY BE ISOLATED TODAY WITH THE BEST COVERAGE NEAR THE WHITE
MOUNTAINS AND ALONG THE MOGOLLON RIM. TEMPERATURES WILL BE CLOSE
TO OR A BIT WARMER THAN AVERAGE.

DEEP SOUTHERLY FLOW DEVELOPS TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY AHEAD OF THE
APPROACHING LOW WHICH DRAWS INCREASED MOISTURE NORTHWARD. AN
UPTICK IN SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IS ANTICIPATED OVER THE
WEEKEND AS THE UPPER LOW TRACKS THROUGH NEVADA AND INTERACTS WITH
THE ENHANCED MOISTURE ACROSS ARIZONA. ACTIVITY ON SATURDAY WILL
FAVOR AREAS FROM GRAND CANYON TO SHOW LOW WEST...SHIFTING TO
NORTHERN AND EASTERN ARIZONA ON SUNDAY.

SUBTROPICAL HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE SOUTHWEST FOR THE EARLY
PART OF NEXT WEEK LEADING TO A DRIER WESTERLY FLOW AND MUCH LESS
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY. HAVE TRENDED PRECIPITATION CHANCES
DOWNWARD...AND THEY MAY NEED TO BE REMOVED ENTIRELY IF TRENDS
CONTINUE. A DEEPER AND COLDER TROUGH IS FORECAST TO MOVE INTO THE
WEST LATE NEXT WEEK...LEADING TO BREEZY AND COOLER WEATHER WITH A
RETURN FOR RAIN CHANCES.

&&

.AVIATION...
FOR THE 12Z PACKAGE...EXPECT ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TODAY WITH ISOLATED IFR/MVFR CONDITIONS
UNDER THE STRONGER STORMS. THE HIGHEST CHANCES FOR SHOWERS WILL
OCCUR ACROSS THE YAVAPAI AND GILA COUNTY MOUNTAINS...MOGOLLON
RIM...AND WHITE MOUNTAINS REGIONS. THE STORM ACTIVITY IS FORECAST TO
DIMINISH AFTER 03Z SATURDAY. AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR
AMENDMENTS.

&&

.FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC.........MCS
AVIATION.......BOHLIN

FOR NORTHERN ARIZONA WEATHER INFORMATION VISIT
WEATHER.GOV/FLAGSTAFF






000
FXUS65 KPSR 190517
AFDPSR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PHOENIX AZ
1020 PM MST THU SEP 18 2014

.UPDATE...UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
LINGERING MOISTURE ACROSS THE REGION AND LOW PRESSURE APPROACHING
FROM THE WEST WILL KEEP AT LEAST SLIGHT CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS IN THE FORECAST FOR THE REST OF TODAY THROUGH
SATURDAY. DRIER AIR WILL GRADUALLY FILTER INTO THE REGION BY LATE IN
THE WEEKEND ALLOWING FOR MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND WARMER TEMPERATURES
FOR MUCH OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
LATEST IR SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS RELATIVELY WARM AND FLAT ALTOCU
DEVELOPING ACROSS CENTRAL AZ AHEAD OF A SMALL VORT MAX ACROSS GILA
COUNTY. MEANWHILE...WARM/DRY LAYER WAS EVIDENT ON THE 00Z PSR
SOUNDING BETWEEN 500 MB AND 400 MB...WHICH HAS INHIBITED VERTICAL
DEVELOPMENT. CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO THICKEN ACROSS THE PHOENIX AREA
OVERNIGHT. MARGINAL CAPE IS AVAILABLE BELOW 500 MB AND THE
POSSIBILITY OF AN ISOLATED LOW-TOPPED SHOWER/SPRINKLE WILL PERSIST
THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING. THIS IS ALSO SUPPORTED BY THE LATEST HRRR
AND FORECAST POPS BETWEEN 10 AND 20 PERCENT WERE RETAINED THROUGH 5
AM...PARTICULARLY ACROSS EASTERN MARICOPA COUNTY. ADDITIONAL
SHORT-TERM ADJUSTMENTS WERE MADE TO THE SKY...DEWPOINTS AND HOURLY
TEMPERATURES. OTHERWISE...THE FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK.

&&

.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
AREA PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES ACROSS ARIZONA WILL REMAIN IN THE
1.00-1.50 INCH RANGE THROUGH AT LEAST SATURDAY WHILE AN APPROACHING
UPPER LOW DIPS SOUTHEASTWARD ALONG THE CALIFORNIA COAST ON
FRIDAY...BECOMING NEARLY STATIONARY INTO SATURDAY. MAINLY SLIGHT
CHANCE FOR SOME SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED FRIDAY
FROM PHOENIX EASTWARD. BY SATURDAY...ENHANCED LIFT IN A FAVORABLE
RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF AN UPPER JET MAX IS EXPECTED TO AID IN
SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY...ESPECIALLY ACROSS SOUTH-CENTRAL
AND SOUTHWEST ARIZONA. MID LEVEL SOUTHERLY WINDS OF 15-25 KNOTS
SHOULD ALLOW FOR SOME STRONGER THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP SATURDAY
AFTERNOON WITH STRONG GUSTY WINDS BEING THE MAIN THREAT.

FOR SUNDAY INTO THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK...WINDS ALOFT WILL TURN
OUT OF THE WEST AND NORTHWEST BEHIND THE EXITING UPPER LOW BRINGING
MORE DRY AIR INTO THE REGION. SOME LINGERING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL
STILL BE PRESENT FROM PHOENIX EASTWARD...THUS WE WILL KEEP LOW END
SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN AREAS NORTH AND EAST OF
PHOENIX THROUGH TUESDAY. TEMPERATURES FOR THE FORECAST PERIOD WILL
SLOWLY CLIMB BACK TO AROUND SEASONAL NORMALS THIS WEEKEND AND REMAIN
NEARLY FLAT THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...
SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA INCLUDING KPHX...KIWA...AND KSDL...
BKN ALTOCU WITH BASES NEAR 9K FT WILL LIKELY PERSIST THROUGH
MORNING...THEN THIN OUT AFTER 15Z. AN ISOLATED SHOWER IS POSSIBLE
FROM THIS DECK...BUT MAINLY EAST OF THE TERMINALS AND INTO THE
HIGHER TERRAIN. OTHERWISE...DIURNAL WINDS GENERALLY LESS THAN 10 KT
THROUGH THE PERIOD.

SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA AND SOUTHWEST ARIZONA INCLUDING KIPL AND KBLH...
MAINLY CLEAR SKIES EXPECTED AT KIPL AND KBLH. MAIN AVIATION IMPACT
WILL BE AT KIPL WHERE SOME BREEZY CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITH GUSTS
TO 20 KT THROUGH 09Z.

AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDED TAFS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...
HIGHER THAN NORMAL HUMIDITY WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THURSDAY WITH
MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITIES IN THE 20 TO 30 PERCENT RANGE. A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL
CONTINUE ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH CENTRAL ARIZONA...
PARTICULARLY IN THE MOUNTAINS. AFTERNOON SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL BE
LIGHTER THAN NORMAL...IN THE 5 TO 15 MPH RANGE. GOOD RECOVERY IS
EXPECTED AT NIGHT.

&&

.PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

AZ...NONE.

CA...NONE.

&&

$$

VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/PHOENIX

DISCUSSION...HIRSCH
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...KUHLMAN
AVIATION...HIRSCH
FIRE WEATHER...VASQUEZ






000
FXUS65 KPSR 190517
AFDPSR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PHOENIX AZ
1020 PM MST THU SEP 18 2014

.UPDATE...UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
LINGERING MOISTURE ACROSS THE REGION AND LOW PRESSURE APPROACHING
FROM THE WEST WILL KEEP AT LEAST SLIGHT CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS IN THE FORECAST FOR THE REST OF TODAY THROUGH
SATURDAY. DRIER AIR WILL GRADUALLY FILTER INTO THE REGION BY LATE IN
THE WEEKEND ALLOWING FOR MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND WARMER TEMPERATURES
FOR MUCH OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
LATEST IR SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS RELATIVELY WARM AND FLAT ALTOCU
DEVELOPING ACROSS CENTRAL AZ AHEAD OF A SMALL VORT MAX ACROSS GILA
COUNTY. MEANWHILE...WARM/DRY LAYER WAS EVIDENT ON THE 00Z PSR
SOUNDING BETWEEN 500 MB AND 400 MB...WHICH HAS INHIBITED VERTICAL
DEVELOPMENT. CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO THICKEN ACROSS THE PHOENIX AREA
OVERNIGHT. MARGINAL CAPE IS AVAILABLE BELOW 500 MB AND THE
POSSIBILITY OF AN ISOLATED LOW-TOPPED SHOWER/SPRINKLE WILL PERSIST
THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING. THIS IS ALSO SUPPORTED BY THE LATEST HRRR
AND FORECAST POPS BETWEEN 10 AND 20 PERCENT WERE RETAINED THROUGH 5
AM...PARTICULARLY ACROSS EASTERN MARICOPA COUNTY. ADDITIONAL
SHORT-TERM ADJUSTMENTS WERE MADE TO THE SKY...DEWPOINTS AND HOURLY
TEMPERATURES. OTHERWISE...THE FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK.

&&

.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
AREA PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES ACROSS ARIZONA WILL REMAIN IN THE
1.00-1.50 INCH RANGE THROUGH AT LEAST SATURDAY WHILE AN APPROACHING
UPPER LOW DIPS SOUTHEASTWARD ALONG THE CALIFORNIA COAST ON
FRIDAY...BECOMING NEARLY STATIONARY INTO SATURDAY. MAINLY SLIGHT
CHANCE FOR SOME SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED FRIDAY
FROM PHOENIX EASTWARD. BY SATURDAY...ENHANCED LIFT IN A FAVORABLE
RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF AN UPPER JET MAX IS EXPECTED TO AID IN
SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY...ESPECIALLY ACROSS SOUTH-CENTRAL
AND SOUTHWEST ARIZONA. MID LEVEL SOUTHERLY WINDS OF 15-25 KNOTS
SHOULD ALLOW FOR SOME STRONGER THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP SATURDAY
AFTERNOON WITH STRONG GUSTY WINDS BEING THE MAIN THREAT.

FOR SUNDAY INTO THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK...WINDS ALOFT WILL TURN
OUT OF THE WEST AND NORTHWEST BEHIND THE EXITING UPPER LOW BRINGING
MORE DRY AIR INTO THE REGION. SOME LINGERING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL
STILL BE PRESENT FROM PHOENIX EASTWARD...THUS WE WILL KEEP LOW END
SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN AREAS NORTH AND EAST OF
PHOENIX THROUGH TUESDAY. TEMPERATURES FOR THE FORECAST PERIOD WILL
SLOWLY CLIMB BACK TO AROUND SEASONAL NORMALS THIS WEEKEND AND REMAIN
NEARLY FLAT THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...
SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA INCLUDING KPHX...KIWA...AND KSDL...
BKN ALTOCU WITH BASES NEAR 9K FT WILL LIKELY PERSIST THROUGH
MORNING...THEN THIN OUT AFTER 15Z. AN ISOLATED SHOWER IS POSSIBLE
FROM THIS DECK...BUT MAINLY EAST OF THE TERMINALS AND INTO THE
HIGHER TERRAIN. OTHERWISE...DIURNAL WINDS GENERALLY LESS THAN 10 KT
THROUGH THE PERIOD.

SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA AND SOUTHWEST ARIZONA INCLUDING KIPL AND KBLH...
MAINLY CLEAR SKIES EXPECTED AT KIPL AND KBLH. MAIN AVIATION IMPACT
WILL BE AT KIPL WHERE SOME BREEZY CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITH GUSTS
TO 20 KT THROUGH 09Z.

AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDED TAFS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...
HIGHER THAN NORMAL HUMIDITY WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THURSDAY WITH
MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITIES IN THE 20 TO 30 PERCENT RANGE. A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL
CONTINUE ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH CENTRAL ARIZONA...
PARTICULARLY IN THE MOUNTAINS. AFTERNOON SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL BE
LIGHTER THAN NORMAL...IN THE 5 TO 15 MPH RANGE. GOOD RECOVERY IS
EXPECTED AT NIGHT.

&&

.PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

AZ...NONE.

CA...NONE.

&&

$$

VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/PHOENIX

DISCUSSION...HIRSCH
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...KUHLMAN
AVIATION...HIRSCH
FIRE WEATHER...VASQUEZ





000
FXUS65 KPSR 190437
AFDPSR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PHOENIX AZ
935 PM MST THU SEP 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LINGERING MOISTURE ACROSS THE REGION AND LOW PRESSURE APPROACHING
FROM THE WEST WILL KEEP AT LEAST SLIGHT CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS IN THE FORECAST FOR THE REST OF TODAY THROUGH
SATURDAY. DRIER AIR WILL GRADUALLY FILTER INTO THE REGION BY LATE IN
THE WEEKEND ALLOWING FOR MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND WARMER TEMPERATURES
FOR MUCH OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
LATEST IR SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS RELATIVELY WARM AND FLAT ALTOCU
DEVELOPING ACROSS CENTRAL AZ AHEAD OF A SMALL VORT MAX ACROSS GILA
COUNTY. MEANWHILE...WARM/DRY LAYER WAS EVIDENT ON THE 00Z PSR
SOUNDING BETWEEN 500 MB AND 400 MB...WHICH HAS INHIBITED VERTICAL
DEVELOPMENT. CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO THICKEN ACROSS THE PHOENIX AREA
OVERNIGHT. MARGINAL CAPE IS AVAILABLE BELOW 500 MB AND THE
POSSIBILITY OF AN ISOLATED LOW-TOPPED SHOWER/SPRINKLE WILL PERSIST
THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING. THIS IS ALSO SUPPORTED BY THE LATEST HRRR
AND FORECAST POPS BETWEEN 10 AND 20 PERCENT WERE RETAINED THROUGH 5
AM...PARTICULARLY ACROSS EASTERN MARICOPA COUNTY. ADDITIONAL
SHORT-TERM ADJUSTMENTS WERE MADE TO THE SKY...DEWPOINTS AND HOURLY
TEMPERATURES. OTHERWISE...THE FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK.

&&

.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
AREA PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES ACROSS ARIZONA WILL REMAIN IN THE
1.00-1.50 INCH RANGE THROUGH AT LEAST SATURDAY WHILE AN APPROACHING
UPPER LOW DIPS SOUTHEASTWARD ALONG THE CALIFORNIA COAST ON
FRIDAY...BECOMING NEARLY STATIONARY INTO SATURDAY. MAINLY SLIGHT
CHANCE FOR SOME SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED FRIDAY
FROM PHOENIX EASTWARD. BY SATURDAY...ENHANCED LIFT IN A FAVORABLE
RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF AN UPPER JET MAX IS EXPECTED TO AID IN
SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY...ESPECIALLY ACROSS SOUTH-CENTRAL
AND SOUTHWEST ARIZONA. MID LEVEL SOUTHERLY WINDS OF 15-25 KNOTS
SHOULD ALLOW FOR SOME STRONGER THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP SATURDAY
AFTERNOON WITH STRONG GUSTY WINDS BEING THE MAIN THREAT.

FOR SUNDAY INTO THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK...WINDS ALOFT WILL TURN
OUT OF THE WEST AND NORTHWEST BEHIND THE EXITING UPPER LOW BRINGING
MORE DRY AIR INTO THE REGION. SOME LINGERING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL
STILL BE PRESENT FROM PHOENIX EASTWARD...THUS WE WILL KEEP LOW END
SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN AREAS NORTH AND EAST OF
PHOENIX THROUGH TUESDAY. TEMPERATURES FOR THE FORECAST PERIOD WILL
SLOWLY CLIMB BACK TO AROUND SEASONAL NORMALS THIS WEEKEND AND REMAIN
NEARLY FLAT THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...
SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA INCLUDING KPHX...KIWA...AND KSDL...

TROPICAL TYPE HUMID AIRMASS REMAINS OVER THE AREA. A SLIGHT CHANCE
OF SMALL TOPPED CONVECTION DEVELOPING OVER THE MOUNTAINS NORTH
THROUGH EAST OF PHOENIX. A SLIGHT CHANCE OF A FEW STORMS DRIFTING
SOUTH INTO PORTIONS OF THE PHOENIX VALLEY LATE IN THE AFTERNOON AND
EARLY EVENING. BKN CIGS OCNLY 6 THSD AGL. CLEARING A FEW HOURS AFTER
DARK...OR AFTER 02Z FRI. FROM 02Z FRI TO 19Z FRI...MOSTLY CLEAR
SKIES AND LIGHT WIND UNDER 8 KNOTS.

SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA AND SOUTHWEST ARIZONA INCLUDING KIPL AND KBLH...

THROUGH 06Z FRI. MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES. SOUTHWEST WIND 5 TO 15 KNOTS.
FROM 06Z FRI TO 19Z FRI...CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WIND UNDER 8 KNOTS.

AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDED TAFS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...
HIGHER THAN NORMAL HUMIDITY WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THURSDAY WITH
MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITIES IN THE 20 TO 30 PERCENT RANGE. A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL
CONTINUE ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH CENTRAL ARIZONA...
PARTICULARLY IN THE MOUNTAINS. AFTERNOON SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL BE
LIGHTER THAN NORMAL...IN THE 5 TO 15 MPH RANGE. GOOD RECOVERY IS
EXPECTED AT NIGHT.

&&

.PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

AZ...NONE.

CA...NONE.

&&

$$

VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/PHOENIX

DISCUSSION...HIRSCH
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...KUHLMAN
AVIATION...VASQUEZ
FIRE WEATHER...VASQUEZ





000
FXUS65 KPSR 190437
AFDPSR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PHOENIX AZ
935 PM MST THU SEP 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LINGERING MOISTURE ACROSS THE REGION AND LOW PRESSURE APPROACHING
FROM THE WEST WILL KEEP AT LEAST SLIGHT CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS IN THE FORECAST FOR THE REST OF TODAY THROUGH
SATURDAY. DRIER AIR WILL GRADUALLY FILTER INTO THE REGION BY LATE IN
THE WEEKEND ALLOWING FOR MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND WARMER TEMPERATURES
FOR MUCH OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
LATEST IR SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS RELATIVELY WARM AND FLAT ALTOCU
DEVELOPING ACROSS CENTRAL AZ AHEAD OF A SMALL VORT MAX ACROSS GILA
COUNTY. MEANWHILE...WARM/DRY LAYER WAS EVIDENT ON THE 00Z PSR
SOUNDING BETWEEN 500 MB AND 400 MB...WHICH HAS INHIBITED VERTICAL
DEVELOPMENT. CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO THICKEN ACROSS THE PHOENIX AREA
OVERNIGHT. MARGINAL CAPE IS AVAILABLE BELOW 500 MB AND THE
POSSIBILITY OF AN ISOLATED LOW-TOPPED SHOWER/SPRINKLE WILL PERSIST
THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING. THIS IS ALSO SUPPORTED BY THE LATEST HRRR
AND FORECAST POPS BETWEEN 10 AND 20 PERCENT WERE RETAINED THROUGH 5
AM...PARTICULARLY ACROSS EASTERN MARICOPA COUNTY. ADDITIONAL
SHORT-TERM ADJUSTMENTS WERE MADE TO THE SKY...DEWPOINTS AND HOURLY
TEMPERATURES. OTHERWISE...THE FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK.

&&

.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
AREA PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES ACROSS ARIZONA WILL REMAIN IN THE
1.00-1.50 INCH RANGE THROUGH AT LEAST SATURDAY WHILE AN APPROACHING
UPPER LOW DIPS SOUTHEASTWARD ALONG THE CALIFORNIA COAST ON
FRIDAY...BECOMING NEARLY STATIONARY INTO SATURDAY. MAINLY SLIGHT
CHANCE FOR SOME SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED FRIDAY
FROM PHOENIX EASTWARD. BY SATURDAY...ENHANCED LIFT IN A FAVORABLE
RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF AN UPPER JET MAX IS EXPECTED TO AID IN
SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY...ESPECIALLY ACROSS SOUTH-CENTRAL
AND SOUTHWEST ARIZONA. MID LEVEL SOUTHERLY WINDS OF 15-25 KNOTS
SHOULD ALLOW FOR SOME STRONGER THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP SATURDAY
AFTERNOON WITH STRONG GUSTY WINDS BEING THE MAIN THREAT.

FOR SUNDAY INTO THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK...WINDS ALOFT WILL TURN
OUT OF THE WEST AND NORTHWEST BEHIND THE EXITING UPPER LOW BRINGING
MORE DRY AIR INTO THE REGION. SOME LINGERING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL
STILL BE PRESENT FROM PHOENIX EASTWARD...THUS WE WILL KEEP LOW END
SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN AREAS NORTH AND EAST OF
PHOENIX THROUGH TUESDAY. TEMPERATURES FOR THE FORECAST PERIOD WILL
SLOWLY CLIMB BACK TO AROUND SEASONAL NORMALS THIS WEEKEND AND REMAIN
NEARLY FLAT THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...
SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA INCLUDING KPHX...KIWA...AND KSDL...

TROPICAL TYPE HUMID AIRMASS REMAINS OVER THE AREA. A SLIGHT CHANCE
OF SMALL TOPPED CONVECTION DEVELOPING OVER THE MOUNTAINS NORTH
THROUGH EAST OF PHOENIX. A SLIGHT CHANCE OF A FEW STORMS DRIFTING
SOUTH INTO PORTIONS OF THE PHOENIX VALLEY LATE IN THE AFTERNOON AND
EARLY EVENING. BKN CIGS OCNLY 6 THSD AGL. CLEARING A FEW HOURS AFTER
DARK...OR AFTER 02Z FRI. FROM 02Z FRI TO 19Z FRI...MOSTLY CLEAR
SKIES AND LIGHT WIND UNDER 8 KNOTS.

SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA AND SOUTHWEST ARIZONA INCLUDING KIPL AND KBLH...

THROUGH 06Z FRI. MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES. SOUTHWEST WIND 5 TO 15 KNOTS.
FROM 06Z FRI TO 19Z FRI...CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WIND UNDER 8 KNOTS.

AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDED TAFS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...
HIGHER THAN NORMAL HUMIDITY WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THURSDAY WITH
MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITIES IN THE 20 TO 30 PERCENT RANGE. A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL
CONTINUE ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH CENTRAL ARIZONA...
PARTICULARLY IN THE MOUNTAINS. AFTERNOON SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL BE
LIGHTER THAN NORMAL...IN THE 5 TO 15 MPH RANGE. GOOD RECOVERY IS
EXPECTED AT NIGHT.

&&

.PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

AZ...NONE.

CA...NONE.

&&

$$

VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/PHOENIX

DISCUSSION...HIRSCH
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...KUHLMAN
AVIATION...VASQUEZ
FIRE WEATHER...VASQUEZ





000
FXUS65 KPSR 190437
AFDPSR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PHOENIX AZ
935 PM MST THU SEP 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LINGERING MOISTURE ACROSS THE REGION AND LOW PRESSURE APPROACHING
FROM THE WEST WILL KEEP AT LEAST SLIGHT CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS IN THE FORECAST FOR THE REST OF TODAY THROUGH
SATURDAY. DRIER AIR WILL GRADUALLY FILTER INTO THE REGION BY LATE IN
THE WEEKEND ALLOWING FOR MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND WARMER TEMPERATURES
FOR MUCH OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
LATEST IR SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS RELATIVELY WARM AND FLAT ALTOCU
DEVELOPING ACROSS CENTRAL AZ AHEAD OF A SMALL VORT MAX ACROSS GILA
COUNTY. MEANWHILE...WARM/DRY LAYER WAS EVIDENT ON THE 00Z PSR
SOUNDING BETWEEN 500 MB AND 400 MB...WHICH HAS INHIBITED VERTICAL
DEVELOPMENT. CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO THICKEN ACROSS THE PHOENIX AREA
OVERNIGHT. MARGINAL CAPE IS AVAILABLE BELOW 500 MB AND THE
POSSIBILITY OF AN ISOLATED LOW-TOPPED SHOWER/SPRINKLE WILL PERSIST
THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING. THIS IS ALSO SUPPORTED BY THE LATEST HRRR
AND FORECAST POPS BETWEEN 10 AND 20 PERCENT WERE RETAINED THROUGH 5
AM...PARTICULARLY ACROSS EASTERN MARICOPA COUNTY. ADDITIONAL
SHORT-TERM ADJUSTMENTS WERE MADE TO THE SKY...DEWPOINTS AND HOURLY
TEMPERATURES. OTHERWISE...THE FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK.

&&

.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
AREA PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES ACROSS ARIZONA WILL REMAIN IN THE
1.00-1.50 INCH RANGE THROUGH AT LEAST SATURDAY WHILE AN APPROACHING
UPPER LOW DIPS SOUTHEASTWARD ALONG THE CALIFORNIA COAST ON
FRIDAY...BECOMING NEARLY STATIONARY INTO SATURDAY. MAINLY SLIGHT
CHANCE FOR SOME SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED FRIDAY
FROM PHOENIX EASTWARD. BY SATURDAY...ENHANCED LIFT IN A FAVORABLE
RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF AN UPPER JET MAX IS EXPECTED TO AID IN
SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY...ESPECIALLY ACROSS SOUTH-CENTRAL
AND SOUTHWEST ARIZONA. MID LEVEL SOUTHERLY WINDS OF 15-25 KNOTS
SHOULD ALLOW FOR SOME STRONGER THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP SATURDAY
AFTERNOON WITH STRONG GUSTY WINDS BEING THE MAIN THREAT.

FOR SUNDAY INTO THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK...WINDS ALOFT WILL TURN
OUT OF THE WEST AND NORTHWEST BEHIND THE EXITING UPPER LOW BRINGING
MORE DRY AIR INTO THE REGION. SOME LINGERING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL
STILL BE PRESENT FROM PHOENIX EASTWARD...THUS WE WILL KEEP LOW END
SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN AREAS NORTH AND EAST OF
PHOENIX THROUGH TUESDAY. TEMPERATURES FOR THE FORECAST PERIOD WILL
SLOWLY CLIMB BACK TO AROUND SEASONAL NORMALS THIS WEEKEND AND REMAIN
NEARLY FLAT THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...
SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA INCLUDING KPHX...KIWA...AND KSDL...

TROPICAL TYPE HUMID AIRMASS REMAINS OVER THE AREA. A SLIGHT CHANCE
OF SMALL TOPPED CONVECTION DEVELOPING OVER THE MOUNTAINS NORTH
THROUGH EAST OF PHOENIX. A SLIGHT CHANCE OF A FEW STORMS DRIFTING
SOUTH INTO PORTIONS OF THE PHOENIX VALLEY LATE IN THE AFTERNOON AND
EARLY EVENING. BKN CIGS OCNLY 6 THSD AGL. CLEARING A FEW HOURS AFTER
DARK...OR AFTER 02Z FRI. FROM 02Z FRI TO 19Z FRI...MOSTLY CLEAR
SKIES AND LIGHT WIND UNDER 8 KNOTS.

SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA AND SOUTHWEST ARIZONA INCLUDING KIPL AND KBLH...

THROUGH 06Z FRI. MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES. SOUTHWEST WIND 5 TO 15 KNOTS.
FROM 06Z FRI TO 19Z FRI...CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WIND UNDER 8 KNOTS.

AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDED TAFS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...
HIGHER THAN NORMAL HUMIDITY WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THURSDAY WITH
MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITIES IN THE 20 TO 30 PERCENT RANGE. A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL
CONTINUE ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH CENTRAL ARIZONA...
PARTICULARLY IN THE MOUNTAINS. AFTERNOON SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL BE
LIGHTER THAN NORMAL...IN THE 5 TO 15 MPH RANGE. GOOD RECOVERY IS
EXPECTED AT NIGHT.

&&

.PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

AZ...NONE.

CA...NONE.

&&

$$

VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/PHOENIX

DISCUSSION...HIRSCH
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...KUHLMAN
AVIATION...VASQUEZ
FIRE WEATHER...VASQUEZ





000
FXUS65 KPSR 190437
AFDPSR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PHOENIX AZ
935 PM MST THU SEP 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LINGERING MOISTURE ACROSS THE REGION AND LOW PRESSURE APPROACHING
FROM THE WEST WILL KEEP AT LEAST SLIGHT CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS IN THE FORECAST FOR THE REST OF TODAY THROUGH
SATURDAY. DRIER AIR WILL GRADUALLY FILTER INTO THE REGION BY LATE IN
THE WEEKEND ALLOWING FOR MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND WARMER TEMPERATURES
FOR MUCH OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
LATEST IR SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS RELATIVELY WARM AND FLAT ALTOCU
DEVELOPING ACROSS CENTRAL AZ AHEAD OF A SMALL VORT MAX ACROSS GILA
COUNTY. MEANWHILE...WARM/DRY LAYER WAS EVIDENT ON THE 00Z PSR
SOUNDING BETWEEN 500 MB AND 400 MB...WHICH HAS INHIBITED VERTICAL
DEVELOPMENT. CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO THICKEN ACROSS THE PHOENIX AREA
OVERNIGHT. MARGINAL CAPE IS AVAILABLE BELOW 500 MB AND THE
POSSIBILITY OF AN ISOLATED LOW-TOPPED SHOWER/SPRINKLE WILL PERSIST
THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING. THIS IS ALSO SUPPORTED BY THE LATEST HRRR
AND FORECAST POPS BETWEEN 10 AND 20 PERCENT WERE RETAINED THROUGH 5
AM...PARTICULARLY ACROSS EASTERN MARICOPA COUNTY. ADDITIONAL
SHORT-TERM ADJUSTMENTS WERE MADE TO THE SKY...DEWPOINTS AND HOURLY
TEMPERATURES. OTHERWISE...THE FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK.

&&

.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
AREA PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES ACROSS ARIZONA WILL REMAIN IN THE
1.00-1.50 INCH RANGE THROUGH AT LEAST SATURDAY WHILE AN APPROACHING
UPPER LOW DIPS SOUTHEASTWARD ALONG THE CALIFORNIA COAST ON
FRIDAY...BECOMING NEARLY STATIONARY INTO SATURDAY. MAINLY SLIGHT
CHANCE FOR SOME SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED FRIDAY
FROM PHOENIX EASTWARD. BY SATURDAY...ENHANCED LIFT IN A FAVORABLE
RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF AN UPPER JET MAX IS EXPECTED TO AID IN
SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY...ESPECIALLY ACROSS SOUTH-CENTRAL
AND SOUTHWEST ARIZONA. MID LEVEL SOUTHERLY WINDS OF 15-25 KNOTS
SHOULD ALLOW FOR SOME STRONGER THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP SATURDAY
AFTERNOON WITH STRONG GUSTY WINDS BEING THE MAIN THREAT.

FOR SUNDAY INTO THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK...WINDS ALOFT WILL TURN
OUT OF THE WEST AND NORTHWEST BEHIND THE EXITING UPPER LOW BRINGING
MORE DRY AIR INTO THE REGION. SOME LINGERING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL
STILL BE PRESENT FROM PHOENIX EASTWARD...THUS WE WILL KEEP LOW END
SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN AREAS NORTH AND EAST OF
PHOENIX THROUGH TUESDAY. TEMPERATURES FOR THE FORECAST PERIOD WILL
SLOWLY CLIMB BACK TO AROUND SEASONAL NORMALS THIS WEEKEND AND REMAIN
NEARLY FLAT THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...
SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA INCLUDING KPHX...KIWA...AND KSDL...

TROPICAL TYPE HUMID AIRMASS REMAINS OVER THE AREA. A SLIGHT CHANCE
OF SMALL TOPPED CONVECTION DEVELOPING OVER THE MOUNTAINS NORTH
THROUGH EAST OF PHOENIX. A SLIGHT CHANCE OF A FEW STORMS DRIFTING
SOUTH INTO PORTIONS OF THE PHOENIX VALLEY LATE IN THE AFTERNOON AND
EARLY EVENING. BKN CIGS OCNLY 6 THSD AGL. CLEARING A FEW HOURS AFTER
DARK...OR AFTER 02Z FRI. FROM 02Z FRI TO 19Z FRI...MOSTLY CLEAR
SKIES AND LIGHT WIND UNDER 8 KNOTS.

SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA AND SOUTHWEST ARIZONA INCLUDING KIPL AND KBLH...

THROUGH 06Z FRI. MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES. SOUTHWEST WIND 5 TO 15 KNOTS.
FROM 06Z FRI TO 19Z FRI...CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WIND UNDER 8 KNOTS.

AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDED TAFS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...
HIGHER THAN NORMAL HUMIDITY WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THURSDAY WITH
MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITIES IN THE 20 TO 30 PERCENT RANGE. A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL
CONTINUE ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH CENTRAL ARIZONA...
PARTICULARLY IN THE MOUNTAINS. AFTERNOON SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL BE
LIGHTER THAN NORMAL...IN THE 5 TO 15 MPH RANGE. GOOD RECOVERY IS
EXPECTED AT NIGHT.

&&

.PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

AZ...NONE.

CA...NONE.

&&

$$

VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/PHOENIX

DISCUSSION...HIRSCH
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...KUHLMAN
AVIATION...VASQUEZ
FIRE WEATHER...VASQUEZ





000
FXUS65 KFGZ 190434
AFDFGZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ
938 PM MST THU SEP 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...ENOUGH LOW TO MID LEVEL MOISTURE WILL REMAIN OVER
NORTHERN ARIZONA FOR ANOTHER DAY OF ISOLATED SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY ON FRIDAY. AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO MOVE
ACROSS SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA AND INTO NEVADA OVER THE WEEKEND. THIS
WILL INCREASE CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER NORTHERN
ARIZONA. FOR THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK...THE CHANCES FOR SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DECREASE AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO
NORTHERN ARIZONA.

&&
.DISCUSSION...LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS HAVE PERSISTED OVER CENTRAL NAVAJO
COUNTRY THIS EVENING. OTHERWISE...RADAR IS RATHER QUIET. WILL ADJUST
POPS UPWARD OVER NAVAJO COUNTY AND DOWNWARD IN OTHER AREAS FOR
TONIGHT.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION /318 PM MST/...SO FAR TODAY...THERE HAS BEEN
ISOLATED ACTIVITY ACROSS PORTIONS OF YAVAPAI AND SOUTHERN COCONINO
COUNTIES. A LITTLE BETTER COVERAGE IN THE WHITE MOUNTAINS AND
PORTIONS OF NORTHERN GILA COUNTY. THE DECLINE IN ACTIVITY TODAY CAN
BE ATTRIBUTED TO SUBSIDENCE BEHIND WHATS LEFT OF ODILE...AND AN
INTRUSION OF DRY...WARM MID LEVEL AIR ACROSS THE REGION. FOR
TOMORROW...WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH A DEEPENING CLOSED LOW OVER THE
SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA COAST IS FORECAST TO CAUSE FURTHER
DRYING...ESPECIALLY IN OUR NORTHWESTERN ZONES...IN THE VICINITY OF
THE GRAND CANYON. THIS WILL EQUATE TO ANOTHER DAY OF RATHER LIMITED
CONVECTION.

OVER THE WEEKEND...THE UPPER LEVEL CLOSED LOW IS FORECAST TO PUSH
TO THE NORTHEAST AFFECTING NORTHERN ARIZONA THROUGH MONDAY
MORNING. THIS FEATURE WILL CAUSE SOUTHERLY FLOW TO DEVELOP ON
SATURDAY...RAISING MOISTURE. THE COMBINATION OF INCREASED MOISTURE
AND ADDED DYNAMIC LIFT...SHOULD ALLOW FOR MORE VIGOROUS
CONVECTION. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE IN
THE FORECAST FOR THE WEEKEND.

MONDAY THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WORK WEEK...HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BUILD IN FROM THE SOUTH AND CONDITIONS WILL DRY LEADING TO
DECREASING CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. ISOLATED SHOWER
AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IS POSSIBLE EACH AFTERNOON OVER HIGHER
TERRAIN. TEMPERATURES WILL BE RUNNING NEAR NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION...
FOR THE 00Z PACKAGE...EXPECT WIDELY SCT SHRA/TSRA WITH ISOLATED
MVFR CONDITIONS CLOSEST TO THE STRONGER STORMS EARLY THIS
EVENING. THE HIGHEST CHANCES FOR SHOWERS WILL OCCUR ACROSS THE
YAVAPAI AND GILA COUNTY MOUNTAINS...MOGOLLON RIM...AND WHITE
MOUNTAINS THIS EVENING. THE SHRA/TSRA ACTIVITY IS FORECAST TO
DIMINISHING BETWEEN 1-3Z FRIDAY. POSSIBLE REDEVELOPMENT OF WDLY SCT
SHRA/TSRA AFT 19Z FRIDAY. AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR
AMENDMENTS.

&&

.FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC.........RR
AVIATION.......TC

FOR NORTHERN ARIZONA WEATHER INFORMATION VISIT
WEATHER.GOV/FLAGSTAFF







000
FXUS65 KFGZ 190434
AFDFGZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ
938 PM MST THU SEP 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...ENOUGH LOW TO MID LEVEL MOISTURE WILL REMAIN OVER
NORTHERN ARIZONA FOR ANOTHER DAY OF ISOLATED SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY ON FRIDAY. AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO MOVE
ACROSS SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA AND INTO NEVADA OVER THE WEEKEND. THIS
WILL INCREASE CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER NORTHERN
ARIZONA. FOR THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK...THE CHANCES FOR SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DECREASE AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO
NORTHERN ARIZONA.

&&
.DISCUSSION...LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS HAVE PERSISTED OVER CENTRAL NAVAJO
COUNTRY THIS EVENING. OTHERWISE...RADAR IS RATHER QUIET. WILL ADJUST
POPS UPWARD OVER NAVAJO COUNTY AND DOWNWARD IN OTHER AREAS FOR
TONIGHT.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION /318 PM MST/...SO FAR TODAY...THERE HAS BEEN
ISOLATED ACTIVITY ACROSS PORTIONS OF YAVAPAI AND SOUTHERN COCONINO
COUNTIES. A LITTLE BETTER COVERAGE IN THE WHITE MOUNTAINS AND
PORTIONS OF NORTHERN GILA COUNTY. THE DECLINE IN ACTIVITY TODAY CAN
BE ATTRIBUTED TO SUBSIDENCE BEHIND WHATS LEFT OF ODILE...AND AN
INTRUSION OF DRY...WARM MID LEVEL AIR ACROSS THE REGION. FOR
TOMORROW...WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH A DEEPENING CLOSED LOW OVER THE
SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA COAST IS FORECAST TO CAUSE FURTHER
DRYING...ESPECIALLY IN OUR NORTHWESTERN ZONES...IN THE VICINITY OF
THE GRAND CANYON. THIS WILL EQUATE TO ANOTHER DAY OF RATHER LIMITED
CONVECTION.

OVER THE WEEKEND...THE UPPER LEVEL CLOSED LOW IS FORECAST TO PUSH
TO THE NORTHEAST AFFECTING NORTHERN ARIZONA THROUGH MONDAY
MORNING. THIS FEATURE WILL CAUSE SOUTHERLY FLOW TO DEVELOP ON
SATURDAY...RAISING MOISTURE. THE COMBINATION OF INCREASED MOISTURE
AND ADDED DYNAMIC LIFT...SHOULD ALLOW FOR MORE VIGOROUS
CONVECTION. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE IN
THE FORECAST FOR THE WEEKEND.

MONDAY THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WORK WEEK...HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BUILD IN FROM THE SOUTH AND CONDITIONS WILL DRY LEADING TO
DECREASING CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. ISOLATED SHOWER
AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IS POSSIBLE EACH AFTERNOON OVER HIGHER
TERRAIN. TEMPERATURES WILL BE RUNNING NEAR NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION...
FOR THE 00Z PACKAGE...EXPECT WIDELY SCT SHRA/TSRA WITH ISOLATED
MVFR CONDITIONS CLOSEST TO THE STRONGER STORMS EARLY THIS
EVENING. THE HIGHEST CHANCES FOR SHOWERS WILL OCCUR ACROSS THE
YAVAPAI AND GILA COUNTY MOUNTAINS...MOGOLLON RIM...AND WHITE
MOUNTAINS THIS EVENING. THE SHRA/TSRA ACTIVITY IS FORECAST TO
DIMINISHING BETWEEN 1-3Z FRIDAY. POSSIBLE REDEVELOPMENT OF WDLY SCT
SHRA/TSRA AFT 19Z FRIDAY. AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR
AMENDMENTS.

&&

.FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC.........RR
AVIATION.......TC

FOR NORTHERN ARIZONA WEATHER INFORMATION VISIT
WEATHER.GOV/FLAGSTAFF








000
FXUS65 KTWC 190421
AFDTWC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ
920 PM MST THU SEP 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...LINGERING MOISTURE WILL MAINTAIN A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS INTO THIS WEEKEND. HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WILL THEN
PROVIDE REDUCED RAINFALL CHANCES NEXT WEEK. EXPECT GRADUALLY WARMER
DAYTIME TEMPERATURES INTO THIS WEEKEND.

&&

.DISCUSSION...KEMX WSR-88D DETECTED ISOLATED 30-50 DBZ ECHOES ACROSS
SWRN COCHISE COUNTY IN THE VICINITY OF SIERRA VISTA AT THIS TIME.
OTHER ISOLATED 30-45 DBZ ECHOES WERE NEAR KITT PEAK. THE REST OF SE
AZ WAS VOID OF PRECIP ECHOES VALID 0420Z. IR SATELLITE IMAGERY AND
SURFACE OBSERVATIONS DEPICTED MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES ACROSS WRN PIMA
COUNTY...AND PARTLY CLOUDY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES ELSEWHERE. LIGHT
SURFACE WINDS PREVAILED ACROSS THE AREA.

HAVE NOTED THE LARGE RAINFALL AMOUNTS GENERATED FOR SOME PORTIONS OF
SE AZ THE REST OF TONIGHT VIA THE 19/00Z NAM. BASED ON SATELLITE/
RADAR TRENDS...AM HIGHLY SUSPECT OF THE LARGE QPF/S AND POPS
GENERATED BY THE NAM. THUS...THIS SOLUTION HAS BEEN LARGELY
DISCOUNTED FOR THIS FORECAST UPDATE. HAVE OPTED FOR PRECIP FREE
CONDITIONS THE REST OF TONIGHT ACROSS WRN PIMA COUNTY...AND A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF SHOWERS ELSEWHERE. HAVE ALSO ADDED PATCHY FOG THRU MID-
MORNING FRI FOR LOWER ELEVATIONS SOUTH-TO-SOUTHEAST OF TUCSON. THERE
IS ENOUGH RESIDUAL LOWER LEVEL MOISTURE TO MAINTAIN ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED SHOWERS/TSTMS FRI AFTERNOON. HIGH TEMPS FRI WILL GENERALLY
BE ABOUT 2-5 DEGS F WARMER VERSUS TEMPS ACHIEVED THIS AFTERNOON.

PLEASE REFER TO THE ADDITIONAL SECTIONS FOR FURTHER DETAIL.

&&

.AVIATION...VALID THRU 20/06Z.
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED -SHRA WILL OCCUR MOSTLY EAST-TO-SOUTH OF KTUS
THRU FRI MORNING. EXPECT ISOLATED TO SCATTERED -SHRA/-TSRA ACROSS SE
AZ FRI AFTERNOON AND FRI EVENING. MVFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE
MAINLY ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN THROUGH THIS PERIOD. THERE MAY ALSO
BE A FEW HOURS OF FOG LATE TONIGHT/EARLY FRI MORNING AT THE KOLS/KDUG
TERMINALS. OTHERWISE...CLOUD DECKS INTO FRI EVENING ESPECIALLY KTUS
VICINITY EWD WILL BE AT 5-10K FT AGL...AND SURFACE WINDS WILL BE
MAINLY LESS THAN 10 KTS. AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR TAF
AMENDMENTS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...THERE IS ENOUGH MOISTURE FOR A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THIS WEEKEND. HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WILL THEN
PROVIDE DRIER CONDITIONS WITH LESSER CHANCES FOR RAINFALL NEXT WEEK.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...WITH THE WEST COAST TROUGH MAKING ITS WAY DOWN
THE COAST OF CALIFORNIA INTO THE WEEKEND...WE SHOULD CONTINUE TO SEE
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY DURING THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK AS THE LOW
EVENTUALLY TRACKS TO OUR NORTH OVER THE GREAT BASIN THROUGH EARLY
MONDAY. AT THAT TIME RIDGING FROM THE SOUTH SHOULD BEGIN TO BUILD
NORTHWARD WITH RAIN CHANCES DECREASING THROUGH LATE NEXT WEEK...BUT
STILL SOME ISOLATED ACTIVITY AROUND.

&&

.TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...YOUTUBE...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/TUCSON

FRANCIS
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...MOLLERE






000
FXUS65 KTWC 190421
AFDTWC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ
920 PM MST THU SEP 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...LINGERING MOISTURE WILL MAINTAIN A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS INTO THIS WEEKEND. HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WILL THEN
PROVIDE REDUCED RAINFALL CHANCES NEXT WEEK. EXPECT GRADUALLY WARMER
DAYTIME TEMPERATURES INTO THIS WEEKEND.

&&

.DISCUSSION...KEMX WSR-88D DETECTED ISOLATED 30-50 DBZ ECHOES ACROSS
SWRN COCHISE COUNTY IN THE VICINITY OF SIERRA VISTA AT THIS TIME.
OTHER ISOLATED 30-45 DBZ ECHOES WERE NEAR KITT PEAK. THE REST OF SE
AZ WAS VOID OF PRECIP ECHOES VALID 0420Z. IR SATELLITE IMAGERY AND
SURFACE OBSERVATIONS DEPICTED MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES ACROSS WRN PIMA
COUNTY...AND PARTLY CLOUDY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES ELSEWHERE. LIGHT
SURFACE WINDS PREVAILED ACROSS THE AREA.

HAVE NOTED THE LARGE RAINFALL AMOUNTS GENERATED FOR SOME PORTIONS OF
SE AZ THE REST OF TONIGHT VIA THE 19/00Z NAM. BASED ON SATELLITE/
RADAR TRENDS...AM HIGHLY SUSPECT OF THE LARGE QPF/S AND POPS
GENERATED BY THE NAM. THUS...THIS SOLUTION HAS BEEN LARGELY
DISCOUNTED FOR THIS FORECAST UPDATE. HAVE OPTED FOR PRECIP FREE
CONDITIONS THE REST OF TONIGHT ACROSS WRN PIMA COUNTY...AND A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF SHOWERS ELSEWHERE. HAVE ALSO ADDED PATCHY FOG THRU MID-
MORNING FRI FOR LOWER ELEVATIONS SOUTH-TO-SOUTHEAST OF TUCSON. THERE
IS ENOUGH RESIDUAL LOWER LEVEL MOISTURE TO MAINTAIN ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED SHOWERS/TSTMS FRI AFTERNOON. HIGH TEMPS FRI WILL GENERALLY
BE ABOUT 2-5 DEGS F WARMER VERSUS TEMPS ACHIEVED THIS AFTERNOON.

PLEASE REFER TO THE ADDITIONAL SECTIONS FOR FURTHER DETAIL.

&&

.AVIATION...VALID THRU 20/06Z.
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED -SHRA WILL OCCUR MOSTLY EAST-TO-SOUTH OF KTUS
THRU FRI MORNING. EXPECT ISOLATED TO SCATTERED -SHRA/-TSRA ACROSS SE
AZ FRI AFTERNOON AND FRI EVENING. MVFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE
MAINLY ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN THROUGH THIS PERIOD. THERE MAY ALSO
BE A FEW HOURS OF FOG LATE TONIGHT/EARLY FRI MORNING AT THE KOLS/KDUG
TERMINALS. OTHERWISE...CLOUD DECKS INTO FRI EVENING ESPECIALLY KTUS
VICINITY EWD WILL BE AT 5-10K FT AGL...AND SURFACE WINDS WILL BE
MAINLY LESS THAN 10 KTS. AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR TAF
AMENDMENTS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...THERE IS ENOUGH MOISTURE FOR A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THIS WEEKEND. HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WILL THEN
PROVIDE DRIER CONDITIONS WITH LESSER CHANCES FOR RAINFALL NEXT WEEK.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...WITH THE WEST COAST TROUGH MAKING ITS WAY DOWN
THE COAST OF CALIFORNIA INTO THE WEEKEND...WE SHOULD CONTINUE TO SEE
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY DURING THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK AS THE LOW
EVENTUALLY TRACKS TO OUR NORTH OVER THE GREAT BASIN THROUGH EARLY
MONDAY. AT THAT TIME RIDGING FROM THE SOUTH SHOULD BEGIN TO BUILD
NORTHWARD WITH RAIN CHANCES DECREASING THROUGH LATE NEXT WEEK...BUT
STILL SOME ISOLATED ACTIVITY AROUND.

&&

.TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...YOUTUBE...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/TUCSON

FRANCIS
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...MOLLERE





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